9-i 

### CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

9.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 9-2

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METH ODOLOGY ....................................................................... 9-2

9.2.1 Historical Shipments ............................................................................................ 9-2

9.2.2 Analyzed Equipment Classes and Lifetime Values ............................................. 9-3

9.2.2.1 Fixture Failure .................................................................................................. 9-3

9.2.2.2 New Construction/Renovation ......................................................................... 9-4

9.3 BASE

- CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS ...................................................................... 9-6

9.3.1 Base

- Case Scenario .............................................................................................. 9-6

9.3.1.1 Base

- Case Forecast Results ........................................................................... 9-10

9.4 STANDARDS

- CASE INPUTS ........................................................................................ 9-12

9.4.1 Shipments Scenarios .......................................................................................... 9-12

9.5 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 9-13

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 9-15

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9.2.1 Equipment Class Lifetime Assumptions................................................................... 9-3

Table 9.2.2 Growth Rates by Equipment Class ........................................................................... 9-5

Table 9.2.3 Percent of Failed Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Replaced by Another Metal

Halide Lamp Fixture ............................................................................................ 9-6

Table 9.3.1 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Wattage Category ..................................... 9-7

Table 9.3.2 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Start Type ................................................. 9-7

Table 9.3.3 Total 70W Estimated Hi storical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments

(thousands) ........................................................................................................... 9-7

Table 9.3.4 Total 250W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments

(thousands) ........................................................................................................... 9-8

Table 9.3.5 Total 400W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments

(thousands) ........................................................................................................... 9-9

Table 9.3.7 Total 1000W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments

(thousands) ......................................................................................................... 9-10

Table 9.5.1 Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 2015–2044 (Roll- Up

Scenario) ............................................................................................................ 9-14

Table 9.5.2. Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 2015–2044 (Shift

Scenario) ............................................................................................................ 9-14

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 9.2.1 Lifetime Distribution for 70/250/400W MH Fixtures ............................................. 9-4

Figure 9.2.2 Lifetime Distribution for 1000W MH Fixtures ....................................................... 9-4

Figure 9.3.1 70W Equipment Class Fixture Shipm ents ............................................................. 9-11

Figure 9.3.2 250W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ........................................................... 9-119- ii 

### Figure 9.3.3 400W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ........................................................... 9-11

Figure 9.3.4 1000W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ......................................................... 9-129-2 

### CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments of metal halide lamp fixtures ( hereafter “ fixtures ” or “MHLF” ) are key inputs

to the national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments are

also a necessary input to the manufacturer impact analysis, which the U.S. Department of Energy

(DOE) conducts for its n otices of proposed rulemaking (NOPRs). This chapter describes DOE’s

methodology for projecting annual shipments and presents initial inputs and results for fixtures

.

In the shipments analysis, DOE develop ed a base

- case shipment forecast for each MHLF

type to depict what would happen to energy use and consumer costs for the purchase and

operation of fixture s in the absence of new and amended Federal energy conservation standards.

In determining the base case, DOE considered historical shipments, emergi ng technologies, the

mix of efficiencies sold in the absence of amended standards, and how that mix might change

over time. To evaluate the effects of standards on fixtures

, DOE then compare d the base

- case projection with forecasts of what could happen if DOE promulgates amended standards (the

standards case ). DOE consider ed multiple shipments scenarios to characterize both the base

- and

standards- case shipments. To determine the cumulative NES and NPV of standards , DOE

compare d forecasted shipments of a base to a standards case over the national impact analysis

period, 2015–2044.

The shipments model and the n ational i mpacts model are integrated into a single

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet accessible at

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/metal_halide_lamp_fixt

ures.html

. This preliminary technical support document ( TSD ) chapter explains the shipments

models. Section 9.2 presents the shipments model methodology for fixtures ; section 9.3

describes the data inputs , historical shipments, base

- case scenarios , and shipments forecasts;

section 9.4 discusses the effects of proposed amended standards on the mix of fixture designs;

and section 9.5 presents the shipments results for the different candidate standard levels (CSL s).

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY

In general, DOE follow ed a three -step process to forecast fixture shipments . First, DOE

used a combination of historical fixture shipment data from U.S. Census Bureau data and metal

halide lamp shipment data to estimate the total historical shi pments of each fixture type

analyzed. Second, DOE calculate d an installed stock for each fixture in 2015 based on the

average service lifetime of each fixture type . Third, by modeling fixture purchasing events, such

as replacement and new construction, and applying growth rate, replacement rate, and emerging

technologies penetration rate assumptions, DOE developed annual shipment projections for

2015–2044.

9.2.1 Historic al Shipments

DOE reviewed U.S. Census Bureau data from 1993 to 2001 for metal halide lamp

fixtures 1 

### . DOE compared the MHLF census data to data on historic al MHLF shipments from the

National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) from 1990 to 2008 taken from DOE’s9-3 

### final determination for high- intensity disc harge (HID) lamps published on July 1, 2010. 75 FR

37975. DOE found a correlation between metal halide lamp fixtures and metal halide lamp

shipments. From 1993 to 2001, the number of MHLF shipments on average represented 37

percent of the amount of lamp shipments with a standard deviation of 3 percent. Using this

relationship, DOE multiplied all of the metal halide lamp shipments from 1990 to 2008 by 37

percent to estimate the historic al shipments of metal halide lamp fixtures.

9.2.2 Analyzed Equipment Classes and Lifetime Values

DOE forecasted annual shipments for all equipment classes. The shipments model

analyzes all fixture types at CSLs that assign efficiency levels for each equipment class . In

general, interior metal halide lamp fixtures tend to be lower wattage fixtures, and exterior metal

halide lamp fixtures tend to be higher wattage fixtures. DOE assume d that interior and exterior

fixtures have lifetimes of 20 and 25 years, respectively. Table 9.2.1 gives the assumed lifetime

values for each MHLF equipment class. T his table was also presented in preliminary TSD

chapter 8

.

Table 9.2.1 Equipment Class Lifetime Assumptions

Representative Equipment Class Lifetime

years

70 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 21.3

250 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 22.0

400 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 22.5

1000 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 24.5



### In its shipments model , DOE consider ed several market segments (“ fixture purchase

events”) to develop estimates of annual shipments. These market segments correspond to th e

fixture purchase events that DOE used in the life

- cycle cost ( LCC ) and payback period ( PBP )

analys e s (pre liminary TSD c hapter 8). These include fixture failure and new

construction/renovation . DOE use d these purchasing assumptions to develop the fixture

shipment forecasts.

9.2.2.1 Fixture Failure

For those consumer purchases triggered by a fixture failure, DOE assume d that the

consumer will purchase a fixture identical to the one that has retired, if it is available. If in the

standards case

, the base

- case fixture design was not standards-compliant (and therefore

unavailable as a replacement option ), then DOE assumed consumers will purchase a new

, standards-compliant metal halide lamp fixture from the same equipment class with comparable

light output.

DOE establishe d the timing of fixture replacements in response to fixture failure by

tracking fixture shipments and then predicting when these fixture s are expected to retire based on

their service lifetime. DOE recognizes that fixture lifetimes vary , but was unable to identify an industry consensus on failure distribution s for different fixture designs. For the preliminary

analyses, DOE used two Weibull distributions to determine the time until failure of metal halide

lamp fixtures in each of the equipment classes. Figure 9.2.1 and Figure 9.2.2 g ive the9-4 

### probabilities of fixtures failing at a given age for the 70W/250W/400W and 1000W equipment

classes, respectively.

Figure 9.2.1 Lifetime Distribution for 70/250/400W MH Fixtures

Figure 9.2.2 Lifetime Distribution for 1000W MH Fixtures

DOE invites additional comment on the distribution of expected failure rates throughout

fixture lifetime s.

DOE calculated average fixture service lifetime s by dividing the average fixture lifetime

in hours (established in the LCC) by the average annual operating hours. As noted in the

preliminary TSD chapter 8 and Table 9.2.1 , t he service life in the 70W, 250W, 400W, and

1000W equipment classes are assumed as approximately 21.3, 22.0, 22.5, and 24.5 years

, respectively

.

9.2.2.2 New Construction /Renovation

DOE produced ini tial shipment estimates due to new construction and renovation by

deriving growth rates for each equipment class. F or several equipment classes

, DOE research

indicate d that the fixture s market is moving in a particular d irection. In such instances, DOE

adj ust ed its forecasted growth rates for particular fixture types accordingly. When historical

shipments reaching as far back as a fixtures’ lifetime was available, DOE calculate d n ew construction shipments as a percentage of the previous years’ stock. When such historical

information was not available, DOE calculate d new construction shipments as a percentage of

the previous years’ shipments. Table 9.2.2 gives the assumed growth rates for all equipment

classes. - 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Probability of Failure

Age of Fixture 70/250/400W Lifetime Distribution

- 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Probability of Failure

Age of Fixture 1000W Lifetime Distribution9-5 

### Table 9.2.2 Growth Rates by Equipment Class

Year 70W 250W 400W 1000W

2015 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2016 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2017 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2018 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2019 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.0%

2020 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.0%

2021 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.0%

2022 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0%

2023 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0%

2024 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0%

2025 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%

2026 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0%

2027 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%

2028 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

2029 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

2030 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0%

2031 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0%

2032 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0%

2033 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0%

2034 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 2.0%

2035 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0%

2036 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0%

2037 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0%

2038 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%

2039 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0%

2040 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0%

2041 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0%

2042 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0%

2043 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0%

2044 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0%



### Additionally, DOE consider ed emerging technologies that will erode future MHLF

shipments. Table 9.2.3 gives the percentage of metal halide lamp fixture s failing in a g iven year

that will be replaced by another metal halide lamp fixture

.9-6 

### Table 9.2.3 Percent of Failed Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Replaced by Another M etal

H alide L amp F ixture

Year 70W 250W 400W 1000W

2015 98.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2016 96.0% 99.0% 99.0% 100.0%

2017 94.0% 98.0% 98.0% 100.0%

2018 92.0% 97.0% 97.0% 100.0%

2019 90.0% 96.0% 96.0% 100.0%

2020 88.0% 95.0% 95.0% 100.0%

2021 86.0% 93.5% 93.5% 100.0%

2022 84.0% 92.0% 92.0% 100.0%

2023 82.0% 90.5% 90.5% 98.5%

2024 80.0% 89.0% 89.0% 97.0%

2025 78.0% 87.5% 87.5% 95.5%

2026 76.0% 86.0% 86.0% 94.0%

2027 74.0% 85.5% 85.5% 92.5%

2028 72.0% 84.0% 84.0% 91.0%

2029 70.0% 83.0% 83.0% 89.5%

2030 68.0% 81.9% 81.9% 88.0%

2031 66.0% 80.8% 80.8% 86.5%

2032 64.0% 79.7% 79.7% 85.0%

2033 62.0% 78.6% 78.6% 83.5%

2034 60.0% 77.5% 77.5% 82.0%

2035 58.0% 76.4% 76.4% 80.5%

2036 56.0% 75.3% 75.3% 79.0%

2037 54.0% 74.2% 74.2% 77.5%

2038 52.0% 73.1% 73.1% 76.0%

2039 50.0% 72.0% 72.0% 74.5%

2040 48.0% 70.9% 70.9% 73.0%

2041 46.0% 69.8% 69.8% 71.5%

2042 44.0% 68.7% 68.7% 70.0%

2043 42.0% 67.6% 67.6% 68.5%

2044 40.0% 66.5% 66.5% 67.0%



### 9.3 BASE

- CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS

This section describes the base

- case scenario DOE emplo yed in its analysis and presents

the base

- case forecasts for each fixture type along with historical fixture shipments data.

9.3.1 Base- Case Scenario

DOE reviewed U.S. Census Bureau data from 1993 to 2001 for metal halide lamp

fixtures . DOE requested historical MHLF shipments from NEMA, but was unable to obtain the

data.

To develop the historic al MHLF shipment data, DOE compared the MHLF census data to

historic al data on metal halide lamp shipments from NEMA from 1990 to 2008 taken from

DOE’s f inal determination for HID lamps. 75 FR 37975 (July 1, 2010).

DOE found a correlation between MHLF and metal halide lamp shipments. From 1993 to

2001 the number of MHLF shipments on average represented 37 percent of the number of lamp9-7 

### shipments with a standard deviation of 3 pe rcent. Using this relationship, DOE multiplied all of

the metal halide lamp shipments from 1990 to 2008 by 37 percent to estimate the historic al

shipments of metal halide lamp fixtures.

For 2008 lamp data, DOE has lamp shipment estimates per wattage group low ( 149W

and under), medium (150W to 500W) and high (501W and above). Table 9.3.1 provides the

2008 metal halide lamp shipments by wattage classification. DOE appl ied this distribution of

shipments per wattage group to fixtures for historic al estimates as well.

Table 9.3.1 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Wattage Category

Wattage Group Wattage Range Portion of Metal Halide Lamp Shipments

Low 1

– 149W 23%

Medium 150W

– 500W 65%

High 501W and above 12%



### For 2008 lamp data, DOE has lamp shipment estimates per wattage group low, medium

and high and by lamp start type (probe- and pulse- start). Table 9.3.2 provides the 2008 metal

halide lamp shipments by start type. DOE used this distribution as a reference point. Since pulsestart metal halide technology was not commercialized until th e mid 1990s, DOE tailored

historic al shipment estimates by technology. DOE factored in both EISA 2007 and other local

laws enacted prior to EISA 2007 that limited and in some cases prohibited medium wattage

probe- start metal halide fixture installations an d sales

. DOE assumed that the portion of probestart fixtures would decline post 2008.

Table 9.3.2 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Start Type

Start Type Low Wattage

(1

– 149W) Low Wattage

(150

– 500W) Low Wattage

(501W+)

Probe

- Start 1% 52% 11%

Pulse

- Start 22% 13% 1%



### Table 9.3.3 through Table 9.3.7 provides estimated historical MHLF shipments estimates

for the entire U.S. market. “Sub

- baseline” refers to metal halide lamp fixtures using a ballast that

is less efficient than the standard base case. The “baseline” refers to the base case ballast

(typically pulse- start).

Table 9.3.3 Total 70W Estimated Historical M etal H alide L amp F ixture Shipments

( thousands )

Year Sub

- Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 EL3 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 157

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 182

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 208

1994 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 248

1995 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 299

1996 9 0% 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 3 3 0

1997 85 % 15 % 0% 0% 0% 376

1998 8 0% 20 % 0% 0% 0% 439

1999 75 % 25 % 0% 0% 0% 516

2000 7 0% 30 % 0% 0% 0% 521

2001 5 0% 5 0% 0% 0% 0% 5219-8 2002 75 % 25 % 0% 0% 0% 536

2003 2 0% 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 547

2004 10% 90% 0% 0% 0% 567

2005 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 606

2006 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 624

2007 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 628

2008 0% 99 % 1 % 0% 0% 582

2009 0% 99 % 1 % 0% 0% 596

2010 0% 98% 1 % 1 % 0% 612

2011 0% 97% 2 % 1 % 0% 628

2012 0% 96% 2 % 2 % 0% 645

2013 0% 96% 2 % 2 % 0% 661

2014 0% 95% 3 % 2 % 0% 678

2015 0% 95% 3 % 2 % 0% 695



### Table 9.3.4 Total 250W Estimated Historical M etal H alide L amp F ixture Shipments

( thousands )

Year Sub

- Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 EL3 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 343

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 331

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 385

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 439

1994 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 523

1995 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 631

1996 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 697

1997 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 794

1998 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 936

1999 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2000 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2001 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,100

2002 90 % 10 % 0% 0% 0% 1,130

2003 8 0% 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,154

2004 7 0% 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,196

2005 60 % 40 % 0% 0% 0% 1,278

2006 50 % 50 % 0% 0% 0% 1,318

2007 4 0% 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,326

2008 3 0% 70 % 0 % 0% 0% 1,227

2009 0% 99% 1 % 0% 0% 1,258

2010 0% 99 % 1 % 0 % 0% 1,292

2011 0% 99 % 1 % 0 % 0% 1,326

2012 0% 99 % 1 % 0 % 0% 1,361

2013 0% 98 % 1 % 1 % 0% 1,396

2014 0% 98% 1 % 1 % 0% 1,431

2015 0% 98% 1 % 1 % 0% 1,4669-9 

### Table 9.3.5 Total 400W Estimated Historical M etal H alide L amp F ixture Shipments

( thousands )

Year Sub

- Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 EL3 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 343

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 331

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 385

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 439

1994 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 523

1995 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 631

1996 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 697

1997 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 794

1998 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 936

1999 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2000 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2001 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,100

2002 90% 10% 0% 0% 0% 1,130

2003 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 1,154

2004 70% 30% 0% 0% 0% 1,196

2005 60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 1,278

2006 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 1,318

2007 40% 60% 0% 0% 0% 1,326

2008 30% 70% 0 % 0% 0% 1,227

2009 0% 99% 1 % 0% 0% 1,258

2010 0% 99% 1 % 0 % 0% 1,292

2011 0% 99% 1 % 0 % 0% 1,326

2012 0% 99% 1 % 0 % 0% 1,361

2013 0% 98% 1 % 1 % 0% 1,396

2014 0% 98% 1 % 1 % 0% 1,431

2015 0% 98% 1 % 1 % 0% 1,4669- 10 

### Table 9.3.6 Total 1000W Estimated Historical M etal H alide L amp F ixture Shipments

( thousands )

Year Sub

- Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 1 99

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 1 83

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 213

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 243

1994 20% 80% 0% 0% 290

1995 16% 84% 0% 0% 350

1996 12% 10% 0% 0% 386

1997 8% 92% 0% 0% 440

1998 4% 96% 0% 0% 513

1999 2% 98% 0% 0% 603

2000 0% 100% 0% 0% 603

2001 0% 100% 0% 0% 609

2002 0% 100% 0% 0% 626

2003 0% 100% 0% 0% 639

2004 0% 100% 0% 0% 663

2005 0% 100% 0% 0% 708

2006 0% 100% 0% 0% 730

2007 0% 100% 0% 0% 734

2008 0% 100% 0 % 0% 680

2009 0% 99% 1 % 0% 697

2010 0% 99 % 1 % 0 % 716

2011 0% 98 % 2 % 0 % 734

2012 0% 9 8 % 2 % 0 % 754

2013 0% 98% 2 % 0 % 773

2014 0% 97% 3 % 0 % 792

2015 0% 97% 3 % 0 % 812



### 9.3.1.1 Base- Case Forecast Results

Figure 9.3.1 through Figure 9.3.4 present the base

- case fixture shipments forecasts from

2015–2044, modeled from the installed stock (based on historical shipments ) and growth rates as

explained in section 9.2.2.2

.

Because DOE forecasts lower future growth rates in the fixture marketplace than are

evidenced in historical shipments; replacements of initial stock make up a relatively large share

of the total number of fixture s shipments in DOE’s forecast. Therefore as the initial stock of

fixture s reach the end of their lifetime and are replaced, a slight increase in replacement

shipments emerges that mimics the shape of the initial growth in the industry. This pattern is

repeated throughout the analysis period as subsequent generations of replacement fixture s also

reach the end s of their lifetimes and are in turn replaced. This would be even more dramatic if

DOE did not adjust for technology-induced retrofits, as explained in section 9.2.2.2 . This pattern

in shipments also reflects DOE assumptions about the distribution of fixture lifetimes (section

9.2.2.1 ).9- 11 

### Figure 9.3.1 70W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

Figure 9.3.2 250W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

Figure 9.3.3 400W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 

## 70 Watt Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 

## 250 Watt Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 

## 400 Watt Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL29- 12 

### Figure 9.3.4 1000W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

9.4 S TANDARDS

- CASE INPUTS

9.4.1 Shipments Scenarios

To characterize consumer behavior in the standards case , DOE consider ed many

characteristics that consumers take into account when purchasing their MH system s. Specifically, DOE regard ed system price and system energy consumption as two key drivers of

consumer purchases.

DOE develop ed two sets of two shipments scenarios to characterize consumers that may

weigh these factors differently

. To evaluate a standards case , DOE model ed a standards- case scenario and compare d it to the base case.

The standards- case scenarios for fixture s includes roll-up and s hift scenarios. The roll-up

scenario represents a standards case in which all equipment efficiencies in the base case that do

not meet the standard would roll up to meet the new standard level. Consumers in the base- case purchase fixture s above th e standard level are not affec ted as they are assumed to continue to

purchase the same base

- case metal halide lamp fixture in the roll-up scenario . The roll-up

scenario characterizes consumers primarily driven by the first -cost of the analyzed equipment. In

a roll-up scenario

, DOE assu mes consumers will buy the first standard

- compliant MH system

available. In contrast, i n a s hift scenario, DOE assumes consumers seek to s hift to an efficiency

level that keeps their purchase the same number of efficiency levels above the baseline as in the

base case . T he s hift scenario models a standards case in which all base

- case consumer purchases

are affected by the standard (whether their base

- case efficiency is below the standard). In this

scenario, any consumer may purchase a more efficient fixture

. As the standard level increases,

market share incrementally accumulates at the highest CSL because it represents “max tech”

( i.e. , moving beyond it is impossible given available technology options ). The s hift scenario

characterizes consumers primarily concerned with system energy consumption, and reflects an

upper bound scenario. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



## 1,000 Watt Base

- Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL19- 13 

### In either the roll-up or s hift scenario consumers will attempt to buy a fixture from t he

same equipment class as their previously demanded system . T hese pairs of scenarios ( roll-up and

s hift ) create a total of two standards- case scenarios.

For its analysis, DOE evaluated the principal events that prompt fixture purchases:

(1) fixture failure / replacement ; and ( 2) new construction /renovation. DOE assumed that all

replacement fixture shipments were due to fixture failure

, and all new fixture shipments were

considered renovation or new construction.

9.5 RESULTS

The following tables show the cumulative shipments forecasts for the various candidate

st andard levels . DOE’s forecasts of the resultant stock forecasts for the various candidate

standard levels over time and by scenario are presented in preliminary TSD chapter 10.

Quantities of fixture shipments depend on the occurrence of the fixture purchas ing

events : fixture failure /replacement , and new construction/renovation. As discussed earlier,

instead of using each particular fixture design’s individual lifetime to time fixture replacements,

DOE uses the same fixture lifetime assumptions for all fixtu re designs within a given equipment

class . For this reason, the rate of fixture replacement does not change between different

shipments scenarios.

Table 9.5.1 and Table 9.5.2 show the cumulative shipments impacts caused by each of

the standards- case s (column labels) out to 2044 for both shipments scenarios (Roll -Up and

Shift ). CSL levels in the first column indicate the equipment CSL. As discussed earlier,

quantities of fixture shipments in the standards- case are based on fixture replacement rates and

shipments due to new construction/renovation . However, because all fixture s within a particular

equipment class are assumed to have the same lifetime, fixture replacement rates in the base case

and standards- case are equal . In additi on, because the fixture lifetime never varies within a

particular market sector

, fixture replacement rates are equal in the base case and standards case

. The only aspects that do vary are the distribution of fixture s by efficiency levels

.

N ote that cumula tive shipments impacts are different from impacts on the stock, because

of fixture replacements over time. I mpacts on the efficiency distributions in the fixture stock are addressed in the preliminary TSD chapter 10.9- 14 

### Table 9.5.1 Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level , 2015–2044 ( Roll

- Up

Scenario )

CSL

Scenario

Selected Fixture

Equipment

Class Shipments at Equipment CSL for CSL Scenario Chosen

CSL

1 2 3 4

1 70W 19,320,226 533,819 0 0

250W 46,787,496 617,392 0 0

400W 46,787,496 617,392 0 0

1000W 26,199,927 0 0 0

TOTAL 139,095,146 1,768,603 0 0

2 70W 0 19,854,045 0 0

250W 0 47,404,888 0 0

400W 0 47,404,888 0 0

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 140,863,749 0 0

3 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 47,404,888 0

400W 0 0 47,404,888 0

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 114,663,822 0

4 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 0 47,404,888

400W 0 0 0 47,404,888

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 19,854,045 94,809,777



### Table 9.5.2. Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 20 15–2044 ( Shift Scenario)

CSL

Scenario

Selected Fixture

Equipment

Class Shipments at Equipment CSL for CSL Scenario Chosen

CSL

1 2 3 4

1 70W 18,519,497 800,729 533,819

250W 46,170,104 617,392 617,392 0

400W 46,170,104 617,392 617,392 0

1000W 25,216,175 983,752 0 0

TOTAL 136,075,881 3,019,265 1,768,603 0

2 70W 0 18,519,497 1,334,548 0

250W 0 46,170,104 617,392 617,392

400W 0 46,170,104 617,392 617,392

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 137,059,633 2,569,332 1,234,784

3 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 46,170,104 1,234,784

400W 0 0 46,170,104 1,234,784

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 112,194,253 2,469,569

4 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 0 47,404,888

400W 0 0 0 47,404,888

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 19,854,045 94,809,7779- 15 

### REFERENCES

1. U.S. Census Bureau. Manufacturing, Mining, and Construction Statistics . Current

Industrial Reports, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts, MQ335C. 2008. (Last accessed September

1, 2010 ). < http://www.census.gov/mcd/ >