NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy

Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

Doubling Geothermal 

Generation Capacity by 2020: 

A Strategic Analysis

Anna Wall and Katherine Young

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Technical Report

NREL/TP-6A20-64925

January 2016
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy

Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

15013 Denver West Parkway

Golden, CO 80401

303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov

Doubling Geothermal 

Generation Capacity by 2020: 

A Strategic Analysis

Anna Wall and Katherine Young

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Prepared under Task No. GTP5.0200

Technical Report

NREL/TP-6A20-64925

January 2016
NOTICE

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or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors 

expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof.

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Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

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iii

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and 

Renewable Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08-

GO28308 with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors wish to thank Ben 

Matek at the Geothermal Energy Association, Andy Sabin at the Naval Geothermal Program, 

Josh Nordquist and Yoram Bronicki at Ormat Nevada Inc., Maureen McIntyre at McIntyre 

Communications Inc., Tim Reinhardt at GTO, and the NREL review team, including Connie 

Komomua, Liz Doris, Sherry Stout, Chad Augustine, Emily Newes, and Maggie Mann. 
iv

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List of Acronyms

BLM U.S. Bureau of Land Management

DOE U.S. Department of Energy

EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration

FERC U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

GEA Geothermal Energy Association

GTO DOE’s Geothermal Technologies Office

GWe gigawatt of electricity

IPP independent power producer

KGRA known geothermal resource area

NEPA National Environmental Policy Act

NIMBY not in my backyard

NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory

OpenEI Open Energy Information

PPA power purchase agreement

ReEDs Regional Energy Deployment System Model

RPS renewable portfolio standard

SEC U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

TGH temperature gradient holes

USGS U.S. Geological Survey
v

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Executive Summary

The President’s Climate Action Plan, issued by the Executive Office of the President in June 

2013, set forth a goal of doubling renewable energy generation in the United States by 2020. 

President Obama then signed a memorandum in December 2013 that directs the federal 

government to consume 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020.

1 This percentage 

is more than double the current level of renewable energy consumption in the United States. 

The President’s plan does not specify which renewable energy resources must increase to meet 

the goal. At the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office,

the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) investigated the feasibility of geothermal 

energy significantly contributing to the President’s goal of doubling United States renewable 

energy generation by 2020. To do so, geothermal generation capacity in the United States would 

have to increase from the current level of approximately 3.8 GWe to 7.6 GWe.

Geothermal projects typically require a minimum of five years from the time they are first 

identified as a prospect to the time they come online (e.g., Flóvenz 2013; Glacier Partners 2009). 

Therefore, the NREL team focused a strategic analysis on projects already in development that 

could come online by 2020, as well as the barriers that could impede progress. 

The Geothermal Energy Association (GEA) has listed 6.4 GWe of unique geothermal projects in 

development in years 2012 through 2015 (GEA 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012). It is estimated that 

these projects have the potential to more than double geothermal generation in the United 

States—if they were all to come online in the next 5 years. 

NREL reviewed these 230 geothermal projects to identify which projects were most likely to 

advance the doubling effort. We catalogued the potential capacity of projects that have been 

discontinued or postponed, but only considered projects in progress (i.e. not discontinued) as 

having the ability to contribute to the near-term supply of geothermal power. For these projects, 

this analysis identified the types and pervasiveness of barriers to development, including 

conclusions on the availability of adequate resources for commercial production, considering 

factors such as the geographic distribution and maturity of exploration to date.

Our results show that over half of these listed projects are in early stages of development, and 

therefore still face barriers of development risk and uncertainty outside of the specific barriers 

explored in this analysis. 

This analysis examined each project to determine which ones are likely to come online within 

the 2020 timeframe. The results of the analysis (Figure ES-1) show:

• 1.63 GWe – Discontinued projects

• 0.70 GWe – Postponed projects (with public information available)

• 0.07 GWe – Postponed projects (with no further information on project barriers)

 1 Since this analysis was completed, an executive order was issued updating the goals to 30% renewables by 2025. 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/19/executive-order-planning-federal-sustainability-nextdecade
vi

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• 2.66 GWe – Ongoing projects (with public information available)

• 1.38 GWe – Ongoing projects (with no further information on project barriers).

Figure ES-1. Breakdown of geothermal capacity listed as “in development” between 2012 and 2015, by current 

project status. Only projects with sufficient public information were included in this analysis (indicated by light 

green, light blue, and light orange colors). This pie chart shows the results: 784 MWe are likely to come online by 

2020, 856 MWe could potentially come online if small hurdles were overcome, and 1,722 MWe (698+1,024) are 

currently stalled, but could come online if project barriers were removed. Other ongoing and postponed projects 

(indicated by dark green and dark blue) may also come online if barriers are removed, assuming they had similar 

barriers to those analyzed.

We investigated the 4,812 MWe of projects that are ongoing or postponed, but were limited in 

our final analysis to a subset of projects – our “sample dataset” – that had additional information 

to review (3,362 MWe). Of these projects with public information, we found that 23% of these 

projects (784 MWe) have no apparent barriers, and are likely to come online by 2020—a 

significant increase in five years. This alone, however, is not enough to double geothermal 

capacity in the United States.

However, an additional 25% (855 MWe) of projects have the potential to come online if they 

overcome small hurdles. The remaining 51% (1,024 MWe ongoing and 698 MWe postponed) of 

projects examined are currently stalled due to larger barriers, but could come online with support 

in overcoming these barriers. The barriers found to be hindering these projects include 

Postponed -

Stalled, 698

OngoingLikely, 784 

Ongoing -

Potential, 856 

Ongoing - Stalled , 

1,024 
vii

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

financing, permitting, transmission, and acquisition of power purchase agreements (PPA). See 

Section 6 of this report for more information on barriers.

In addition to the 3.4 GWe of projects analyzed, an additional 1.4 GWe of ongoing and 

postponed projects did not have sufficient information for detailed analysis, but are likely to have 

similar barriers. Because these 4.8 GWe (total) of geothermal are already in development, they 

are the first projects likely to be positively impacted by overcoming barriers – and would more 

than double geothermal capacity in the United States if deployed.

Industry suggests that, should projects face little to no hurdles, a geothermal project would take 

less than the typical 5+ years to develop; they suggest a project could move through all stages of 

exploration and development in approximately three years (Glacial Partners 2009, Nordquist 

2015).Therefore, overcoming these hurdles on an industry-wide level could allow for swifter 

deployment of geothermal—in other words, projects not yet begun could also be completed by 

the 2020 goal. 

This analysis suggests that doubling geothermal electricity capacity in the United States is 

possible, but that it is unlikely to be achieved without assistance in overcoming barriers.

Overcoming barriers on an industry-wide level could expedite and/or allow the continued 

development of 4,047 MWe of ongoing projects, 765 MWe of postponed projects, and an 

additional 2,789 MWe of potential yet to be started—enough to triple the current installed 

geothermal capacity in the United States. Although not all of these projects will prove to be 

technically or economically viable, the analysis suggests that identifying and eliminating barriers 

related to permitting, financing, transmission, and acquisition of PPAs for geothermal projects 

could have a significant impact on the potential to double U.S. geothermal energy generation by 

2020.
viii

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Contents

Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................... v

1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1

2 Analysis Overview................................................................................................................................ 2

3 Assumptions......................................................................................................................................... 4

3.1 Nameplate Capacity Is Accurate ................................................................................................... 4

3.2 Current Sources Are Accurate....................................................................................................... 4

3.3 Discontinued Project Status Is Accurate ....................................................................................... 5

3.4 Planned Capacity Estimates Are Realistic and Accurate .............................................................. 5

3.5 Current Plants Will Operate at the Same Capacity ....................................................................... 5

3.6 Project Information Is Accurate .................................................................................................... 5

3.7 Projects Not Currently in Exploration Will Not Be Online by 2020............................................. 6

4 Analysis A: Where is the project now?.............................................................................................. 6

4.1 Data Sources.................................................................................................................................. 6

4.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 9

4.3 Analysis....................................................................................................................................... 11

4.4 Results......................................................................................................................................... 11

5 Analysis B: Where is the project going? ......................................................................................... 12

5.1 Data Sources................................................................................................................................ 12

5.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 12

5.3 Analysis....................................................................................................................................... 13

5.4 Results......................................................................................................................................... 13

6 Analysis C: Will the project be completed by 2020? ...................................................................... 15

6.1 Data Sources................................................................................................................................ 15

6.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 15

6.3 Analysis....................................................................................................................................... 19

6.4 Results......................................................................................................................................... 21

7 Results Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................................. 23

7.1 Results Summary......................................................................................................................... 23

7.2 Conclusions................................................................................................................................. 25

References................................................................................................................................................. 26

APPENDIX A: Comparison of Geothermal Nameplate and Summer Capacities................................ 28

APPENDIX B: Analysis D: How Much Additional Geothermal Potential Energy Can be Deployed?29

B.1 Data Sources.................................................................................................................................. 29

B.2 Methodology.................................................................................................................................. 29

B.3 Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 30

B.4 Results............................................................................................................................................ 30
ix

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List of Figures

Figure ES-1. Breakdown of geothermal capacity listed as “in development” between 2012 and 

2015, by current project status. ......................................................................................................... vi

Figure 1. Recent United States geothermal installed nameplate capacity (MW) and annual 

generation (MWh). Nameplate capacity increased nearly 28% between 2000 and 2013 (823 MW 

from 2,942 MW to 3,765 MW) at an average annual growth rate of 2%. For geothermal 

deployment to double by 2020, capacity would have to increase an average of 10% per year 

between 2013 and 2020........................................................................................................................ 1

Figure 2. Map of United States geothermal regions. Geothermal regions were used in our analysis 

to understand the distribution of barriers and project delays. For example, the Gulf of 

California Rift Zone had a significant proportion of projects postponed and discontinued (see 

Figure 5). Source: Young et al. 2012. .............................................................................................. 10

Figure 3. Capacity of projects by GEA development phase (MWe). This figure shows the 

distribution of projects by phase for all projects (6,641 MWe total), including postponed 

projects and projects for which we had no information on development phase (labeled 

“unknown”). Over 65% of capacity was categorized as early stage development phases 

(Prospect and Phase I)....................................................................................................................... 12

Figure 4. Project status analysis (2012–2015). Total Project Capacity Reviewed: 6,441 MWe. Nearly 

75% of capacity is considered ongoing or postponed (4,812 MWe), but only 70% of this 

ongoing and postponed capacity (3,362 MW) had sufficient information for this analysis. ...... 14

Figure 5. United States geothermal total estimated project capacity (in megawatts) by geothermal 

region (2012-2015). This figure highlights areas that had significant proportions of projects 

that were either discontinued or postponed: Idaho Batholith (100%), Gulf of California Rift 

Zone (77%), Alaska (45%), Northwest Basin and Range (47%), the Walker-Lane Transition Zone 

(44%), and the Northern Basin and Range (36%)............................................................................ 15

Figure 6. Total project capacity reviewed (6,441 MWe). Updated from Figure 4 to show portion of 

ongoing projects that are likely, potential and stalled, per Analysis C. The majority of project 

capacity reviewed is categorized as stalled (51%). Postponed projects were found to be stalled

because research does not indicate a likelihood for development to resume to achieve the 

2020 goal. ............................................................................................................................................ 23

Figure A1. Comparison of Nameplate to Net Summer Capacity, 1990-2013. Figure shows current 

discrepancy between installed nameplate capacity (design output of installed projects) to net 

summer capacity (net output of geothermal power available for sale during the summer). As 

of 2013, EIA survey data from geothermal generators shows that geothermal nameplate 

capacity was 3,765 MW in comparison to 2,607 MW reported net summer capacity. Sources: 

Energy Information Association (2015) Nameplate Capacity: Form 860 Generator Data, State 

Electricity Profiles (July 2015). Summer Capacity: Annual Energy Review (2015). ................... 28
x

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List of Tables

Table 1. Project Analyses. Three analyses were conducted on each project to determine: 1) where 

the project is now, 2) where the project is going, and 3) if the project will be completed by 

2020. For each of these analyses, a discrete set of categories was allowed................................. 4

Table 2. GEA-defined Reporting Terms and Definitions. GEA annually asks organizations to 

indicate each project’s stage of development. Each project must meet certain criteria to be 

considered and reported by the GEA as being in a respective phase of development. GEA’s 

goal in developing these definitions was to increase the consistency, accuracy, and reliability 

of industry information. ....................................................................................................................... 7

Table 3. Comparison of Data Elements Collected from Third-Party Databases, by Source. Note for 

some SNL data fields, there is not a comparable data field in the GEA dataset. .......................... 8

Table 4. Categories and Definitions of Project Development Barriers. Sub-categories of financing, 

permitting, and resource barriers developed from a review of project data................................ 18

Table 5. Primary Project Barriers by Phase of Development (Capacity in MWe). Major barriers at 

each stage are indicated in orange. Financing barriers affect the majority of capacity in 

Prospect, Phase I, and Phase II and permitting barriers affect the majority of capacity in Phase 

III........................................................................................................................................................... 20

Table 6. Categories and Definitions of Project Strategic Viability. Categories are qualitatively 

assigned based on the combination of a project’s barriers and development progress........... 21

Table 7. Projected Capacity, in Megawatts, of Ongoing or Proposed Projects. Financing is the 

greatest barrier for both stalled and potential projects. ................................................................ 22

Table 8. Analysis A Results ..................................................................................................................... 24

Table 9. Analysis C Results ..................................................................................................................... 24

Table B1. Top Resource Areas for Geothermal Development. Of the 11 reviewed, 5 areas have 

operational capacity online. Seven areas would have additional capacity remaining for 

development if current projects are completed. ............................................................................. 31
1

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The President’s 

Climate Action Plan

Double renewable energy 

generation by 2020 by:

• Expanding clean energy use

• Accelerating clean energy 

permitting

• Expanding and modernizing the 

electric grid

• Unlocking long-term investment 

in clean energy innovation.

1 Introduction

The President’s Climate Action Plan makes a priority

of doubling renewable energy generation by 2020. As 

part of the plan, President Obama signed a 

memorandum in 2013 directing the federal government 

to consume 20% of its electricity from renewable 

sources by 2020 (Executive Office of the President 

2013b). 

Geothermal energy has the potential to play an 

important role in contributing to goals of producing 

more electricity from renewable sources in the United 

States. If the doubling goal were applied to geothermal, 

nameplate geothermal power generation capacity 

would need to increase from approximately 3.8 GWe 

today to 7.6 GWe by 2020.

Figure 1. Recent United States geothermal installed nameplate capacity (MW) and annual generation (MWh). 

Nameplate capacity increased nearly 28% between 2000 and 2013 (823 MW from 2,942 MW to 3,765 MW) at 

an average annual growth rate of 2%. For geothermal deployment to double by 2020, capacity would have to 

increase an average of 10% per year between 2013 and 2020. Generation data source: State Electricity 

Profiles, July 2015 (EIA 2015). Nameplate capacity data source: EIA Form 860 in Electric Power Monthly, June 

2015 (EIA 2015). See Appendix A for comparison of nameplate and net summer capacity.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

 14,000

 16,000

 18,000

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Nameplate Capacity (MW)

Generation (MWh)

Nameplate Capacity (MW) Generation (MWh)
2

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Doubling geothermal power generation by 2020 could pose a challenge, however, because 

geothermal power plants can take anywhere from 5 to 10 years to build under current conditions. 

In addition, only 600 MW of geothermal energy has come online in the last 8 years (of available 

data, Figure 1, 2006-2013) to increase deployment above 3 GW.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) directed the National 

Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct a strategic analysis centered on these 

questions: 

• What is the status of current geothermal projects in development? 

• What percentage of these projects is most likely to come online by 2020? 

• What factors are holding up development? 

• How can GTO expedite development? 

The NREL Analysis Team collected information about current and potential United States

geothermal projects to determine the feasibility of doubling geothermal capacity in addressing the 

President’s Climate Action Plan goals. 

We reviewed 230 geothermal projects (totaling 6,441 MWe) that were announced as “in 

development” in the last four years to identify the projects most likely to advance the doubling 

effort. We catalogued the potential capacity of projects that have been discontinued or postponed, 

but only considered projects in progress (i.e. not discontinued) as having the ability to contribute 

to the near-term supply of geothermal power. For these projects, this analysis identified the types 

and pervasiveness of barriers to development, including conclusions on the availability of 

adequate resources for commercial production, considering factors such as the geographic 

distribution and maturity of exploration to date. 

This report documents the analytical methods we used to examine the viability of doubling 

geothermal energy production by 2020. 

2 Analysis Overview

We used publicly available data from the following sources to identify the technical and market 

barriers and projected capacity that could contribute to doubling nameplate geothermal generation 

capacity from 3,765 MWe to 7,530 MWe by 2020:

• Geothermal Energy Association (GEA) annual reports on geothermal power production 

and development in the United States (GEA 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)

• Bureau of Land Management (BLM) permit and National Environmental Policy Act 

(NEPA) document records

• SNL Financial power plant database (SNL Financial 2014)

• Company websites

• Public company financial reports (Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 10-K 

filings). 
3

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From these sources, we determined which projects might come online by 2020 with no federal 

intervention. We also identified resources and individual projects currently under development 

that might be encountering barriers that are slowing development. 

We conducted the following four analyses: 

• Analysis A: Where is the project now? 

• Analysis B: Where is the project going? 

• Analysis C: Will the project be completed by 2020? 

• Analysis D: How much additional geothermal potential can be deployed?

In Analysis A, B, and C we focused on projects in development to determine which projects 

might come online by 2020 (Table 1).

In Analysis D, we reviewed the top geothermal resource potential areas in the United States to see 

how much additional potential could be deployed. We used projects in development in those areas 

to suggest what barriers developers might face if they try to develop additional potential in these

areas. Overcoming barriers has the potential to make this additional geothermal potential more 

attractive to developers. Because these projects are not likely to come online by 2020, this 

analysis is included only as an appendix (Appendix B) to this report.
4

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Table 1. Project Analyses. Three analyses were conducted on each project to determine: 1) where the 

project is now, 2) where the project is going, and 3) if the project will be completed by 2020. For each of 

these analyses, a discrete set of categories was allowed.

Analyses Categories Description

Analysis A: 

Where is the 

project now?

Project 

Development 

Phasea

Prospect Regional reconnaissance

Phase I Resource procurement and identification

Phase II Resource exploration and confirmation

Phase III Permitting and initial development

Phase IV Resource production and power plant construction

Analysis B: 

Where is the 

project going?

Project Statusb

Ongoing Projects currently in development

Postponed Projects no longer in development but with the 

intention of resuming exploration

Discontinued Projects no longer in development with no intention 

of resuming exploration

Analysis C: Will 

the project be 

completed by 

2020?

Strategic 

Viabilityc

Likely On track to come online by 2020 given current and 

past progress (assuming no new hurdles)

Potential

Additional effort required to advance exploration 

and development to come online by 2020 (i.e., 

current barriers and/or lack of project progress)

Stalled

Exploration and/or development significantly 

slowed or stalled for a cause unrelated to resource 

availability

Pre-development No on-site activities to date

a Based on GEA report data and verified through review of publicly available documents (news articles, company 

websites, and regulatory permits); b Based on SNL Financial data and verified through review of publicly available 

documents (news articles, company websites, and regulatory permits); c NREL designation.

3 Assumptions 

3.1 Nameplate Capacity Is Accurate

Our analysis did not adjust or verify nameplate capacity of geothermal sites currently online. We 

assumed that the unit and plant data reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 

Form 860 are reliable and up to date. This analysis did not construct or calculate estimates of 

resource capacity or planned capacity from primary scientific or operations data. 

3.2 Current Sources Are Accurate

We assumed that the unique set of projects from SNL Financial and GEA is representative of all 

projects currently in development in the United States. We submitted requests to the top 11 

geothermal developers to verify the accuracy of this data, representing 60% of our project list. 

Four developers responded. While we conducted research to verify these projects, we did not 
5

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conduct additional searches to identify any projects that these third-party sources might have 

overlooked. 

3.3 Discontinued Project Status Is Accurate

Our review of the information collected revealed that some projects in development in 2012 had 

been discontinued before or during 2015. If a project did not exist in the GEA annual report in 

2015 and was marked as “discontinued” by SNL Financial, we assumed that the consistent 

response between sources was sufficient verification that the project was closed. We did no 

further analysis on the barriers for these projects. 

3.4 Planned Capacity Estimates Are Realistic and Accurate

We assumed that reported planned capacity estimates were realistic, and did not independently 

verify these estimates. We did not review geological studies and exploration data sets to confirm 

or deny the likelihood that the planned capacity would be achieved. Consequently, our analysis 

does not identify or include the uncertainty associated with using the planned capacity. 

We also assumed that the most recent assessments of planned capacity available through GEA, 

SNL Financial, and/or company reports are estimates of the likely capacity that might be 

developed by 2020. The majority of projects we reviewed have planned capacity estimates 

equivalent to the resource capacity identified. We used resource capacity estimates (i.e., 

assessments of the total potential of the area that could be developed) only as approximations, and 

only when planned capacity estimates were not available. 

3.5 Current Plants Will Operate at the Same Capacity

We assumed that current geothermal plants will continue to operate at the same capacity through 

at least 2020 and that no generators will be decommissioned. That means that all new projects 

under development would contribute to the doubling goal instead of replacing current generation. 

This assumption may be unrealistic because of the inevitable resource degradation over the 

production lifetime of a geothermal facility. Future iterations of this analysis could incorporate 

corrections with a review of the production histories of these plants. 

3.6 Project Information Is Accurate

We assumed that the publicly available information we found for the projects for this report form

a representative sample of all geothermal project barriers and progress. This assumption may not 

adequately address issues for private developers for whom little to no information is available on 

current project status. We reached out to the top 11 project developers representing nearly 3,598 

MW to verify project information as of August 2015, and received feedback from companies 

covering over 887 MWe of projects in all stages of development (i.e. ongoing, postponed, and 

discontinued). Developers who responded verified at least project status and capacity on all 

projects requested. For some projects, only the information in GEA’s industry survey was 

available.

Relying on publicly available information may overstate the barriers of historically problematic 

projects. These projects may now be moving forward without additional issues.
6

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Over half (55%) of the project capacity in our sample dataset was in the early stages of 

development (Prospect and Phase I). Confidence in the availability of the geothermal resource is 

typically not known until later phases of development. Therefore, for these projects, resource 

commerciality could still become a barrier to project development (if it is not already indicated).

3.7 Projects Not Currently in Exploration Will Not Be Online by 2020

In developing the criteria to determine viability for development by 2020, we assumed that 

projects require a minimum of five years from the time they are identified as a prospect to the 

time they come online. This timeline is consistent with current patterns in the geothermal industry 

(e.g., Flóvenz 2013; Glacier Partners 2009), and does not consider the additional time for possible 

project delays. However, this may be an underestimate of potential capacity online should 

projects face little to no hurdles, in which case projects could move through all stages of 

development in approximately 3 years (Glacial Partners 2009, Nordquist 2015).

4 Analysis A: Where is the project now?

4.1 Data Sources

We used the GEA reporting terms as the primary method to define the project development phase

(GEA 2010), as outlined in Table 2.
7

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Table 2. GEA-defined Reporting Terms and Definitions. GEA annually asks organizations to indicate each 

project’s stage of development. Each project must meet certain criteria to be considered and reported by 

the GEA as being in a respective phase of development. GEA’s goal in developing these definitions was to 

increase the consistency, accuracy, and reliability of industry information.

Phase Title Resource Development

Transmission 

Development External Development

Prospect Regional 

reconnaissance

Not yet meeting phase I 

criteria

Not yet meeting phase I 

criteria

Not yet meeting phase I 

criteria

Phase I Resource 

procurement 

and 

identification

At least 2 of the following: 

• Literature survey 

complete

• Geologic mapping 

completed, Geophysical 

and geochemical sample

sites identified

• Geochemical and 

geophysical surveys in 

progress

Internal transmission 

analysis complete

All of the following: 

• Land or lease 

acquired

• Permitting process for 

exploration drilling 

(TGH and/or slim 

holes) under way

Phase II Resource 

exploration and 

confirmation

At least 1 of the following: 

• Temperature gradient 

holes (TGH) drilled

• Slim hole drilled

• One full-size discovery 

well drilled

At least 1 of the following: 

• Interconnection 

application submitted 

and queue position 

established

• Transmission feasibility 

studies under way 

At least 1 of the 

following: 

• Permit for slim hold 

drilling applied for or 

approved

• Permit for production 

well drilling applied 

for or approved

Phase III Permitting and 

initial 

development

At least 2 of the following: 

• At least one full-size 

production well drilled 

and operational

• At least one full-size 

injection well drilled and 

operational

• Reservoir 

characterization 

completed and 

sustainable reservoir 

capacity determined 

At least 2 of the following: 

• Interconnection 

feasibility study 

complete

• System impact study 

under way or complete

• Interconnection facility 

study under way

• Transmission service 

request submitted

At least 2 of the 

following: 

• Plant permit 

application complete 

or in process

• Power purchase 

agreement secured or 

in negotiation

• Financing secured, or 

being secured, for 

portion of project 

construction

Phase IV Resource 

production and 

power plant 

construction

At least 2 of the following: 

• Plant equipment on 

order

• Plant construction under 

way

• Production and injection 

drilling under way

All of the following: 

• Interconnection 

agreement signed

• Transmission system 

service request studies 

completed 

All of the following: 

• Plant permit(s) 

approved

• Engineering, 

procurement, and 

construction contract 

signed

• PPA secured

Source: GEA 2010
8

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

The GEA publishes a United States project list each year from company-reported survey results, 

supported by a review of publicly available documents such as news articles, company websites, 

and regulatory permits (GEA 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012). We reviewed geothermal projects in 

development in years 2012 through 2015 in order to evaluate a larger sample size of projects than 

would be available in a study of only the most current reports. Table 3 lists and compares the data 

collected from the GEA reports and the SNL Financial database, and identifies where the data 

elements were used in this analysis. As shown, we compiled project data related to anticipated 

capacity, location, status, and ownership. 

Table 3. Comparison of Data Elements Collected from Third-Party Databases, by Source. Note for some 

SNL data fields, there is not a comparable data field in the GEA dataset.

Used in This 

Analysis

GEA Annual Reports 

Data Fields

SNL Financial Power Plant

Database Data Fields

General 

characteristics

Project name Project name

Location (state, county) Location (state, county, and GPS coordinates)

Resource and planned capacity (in 

megawatts)

Planned capacity (in megawatts)

Project status Project phase Project development phase

Project status

Year report issued Last date verified

Project barriers and 

viability

Developer name(s) Developer name(s)

Owner name(s) Owner name(s) and % of ownership

Operator name(s)

Ultimate parent name(s) and % of ownership

Dates of asset sales (i.e., merger and acquisition 

activity)

Date of PPA 

Date to come online

When projects were listed by both GEA and SNL, we compared project development phases from 

the GEA reports to data from SNL Financial to identify any major discrepancies. We also used 

news and financial reports on project development, along with permitting documents, to confirm 

or modify the project status. We determined that company financial reports were the most 

credible source for categorizing project progress.
9

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4.2 Methodology

4.2.1 Creating Universal Records

The first step was for us to create a unique list of geothermal projects under development and 

their characteristics. We compared projects on the basis of location, developer, owner, and 

estimated project size to confirm or deny whether listed records described the same project. Each 

original data element from SNL Financial and GEA was retained separately and marked “asreported data” for transparency between the original and unified records.

4.2.2 Adding Data Elements 

We added project data on location, planned capacity, developer name, owner name, project phase, 

and project status from individual SNL Financial records and GEA reports into our unified data 

record. In the case of overlapping or similar elements, we used separate columns to keep data 

from each source transparent. We created a separate entry showing the data value we determined 

as most representative. In cases where there were conflicts (such as owner name), we gathered 

additional information using internet searches and SNL data to identify notices of asset 

acquisitions or sales and confirm the data.

4.2.3 Physical Project Characteristics 

Our analysis relied on the geographic coordinates supplied by SNL Financial to identify the 

location of specific projects. In the GEA reports, project location information included only 

county and state. Based on the locations of projects listed in the GEA report, we collected specific 

information on these projects from company websites and reports, when available. We used the 

geothermal areas and regions listed in Open Energy Information (OpenEI 2014) to categorize 

projects by geography. The base set of geothermal areas used in OpenEI comes from the 253 

geothermal areas identified by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in its 2008 resource 

assessment (USGS 2008), but other sites have since been added through crowdsourcing.

4.2.4 Determining the Project’s Geothermal Region

Using the coordinates listed by SNL Financial, we mapped projects in Geothermal Prospector1

with the “Exploration Regions” layer turned on (Figure 2). If the project did not have GPS 

coordinates but could be identified by city and/or county, we used these locations as an acceptable 

proxy for mapping purposes. The defined zone—an attribute of the layer—determined the 

geothermal region recorded. 

 1 See http://maps.nrel.gov/gt_prospector for more information.
10

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Figure 2. Map of United States geothermal regions. Geothermal regions were used in our analysis to understand 

the distribution of barriers and project delays. For example, the Gulf of California Rift Zone had a significant 

proportion of projects postponed and discontinued (see Figure 5). Source: Young et al. 2012.

If the project was not located within the bounds of an exploration region, it was listed as “not in 

defined region.” If the project’s approximate location would result in multiple conclusions (such 

as a county that spanned multiple regions or placed the project on a boundary) and no additional 

public information or maps could be found, the project’s location was listed as “not available.”

4.2.5 Determining the Project’s Geothermal Area 

Using the mapped location and exploration region in Geothermal Prospector, we compared the 

mapped geothermal areas in OpenEI to the project’s location and selected the geothermal area that 

best encompassed the project. If the project was not located within the approximate bounds of the 

OpenEI geothermal areas, it was listed as “not in defined area.”

4.2.6 Resolving Conflicting Data

In cases of conflicts (such as differences in listed ownership between GEA and SNL), we 

gathered additional information through internet searches and reviewed corporate notices and 

SNL data of asset acquisitions or sales. In situations where no further information could be found,

we color-coded the elements in the spreadsheet to indicate uncertainty.

4.2.7 Estimating Project Capacity

SNL Financial reports planned capacity; GEA annual reports provide estimates of both the 

geothermal resource and planned capacity (in megawatts). We used the most recent assessments 

of planned capacity available through GEA, SNL Financial, and/or company reports as sources of 

the likely quantity of capacity in development. 
11

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Although the majority of projects we reviewed specified planned capacity, we also found 

estimates of the total resource capacity. Because resource capacity estimates may overestimate 

near-term development by not reflecting the scale of the project, we used these estimates only 

when planned capacity estimates were not available. The outcome of our data preferences is that 

the capacity reported in this analysis is the most conservative estimate (i.e., smallest estimated 

capacity) of the resource’s potential generation. 

Of the 230 projects reviewed in this analysis, 84 did not have any form of estimated capacity. We 

recorded the estimated capacity of these projects as “not available.” These projects were not 

included in possible capacity estimates. 

4.3 Analysis

4.3.1 Determining Project Development Phase

Both SNL Financial and the GEA report portray development progress using their own 

classification systems. Since the geothermal industry is more familiar with the GEA phases, we 

used this classification. GEA phases have clearly identified criteria (Table 2), so we identified the 

GEA project phase that best characterized the project’s research, transmission, permitting, and 

finance (GEA 2010). The reported GEA and SNL Financial project phases were used as a 

reference point, but we verified each project for the phase that best matched the publicly available 

information from agency and company websites, news sites, and financial reports. The reported 

GEA phase was used in 36 cases when public information was not sufficient to either verify or 

refute the GEA assessment. 

4.3.2 Determining Project Relevance

Certain types of projects were removed from consideration in this analysis, regardless of project 

status. For example, enhanced geothermal systems demonstration projects at Brady and Desert 

Peak were considered research projects only per discussion with the developer, and were therefore 

removed from consideration; their potential does not represent capacity that would remain online. 

Projects labeled as a “repower” were also eliminated from consideration because these projects 

were intended to increase the generation—not capacity—at currently-installed facilities (Glacial 

Partners 2009, Nordquist 2015).

4.4 Results

Of the 230 total projects reviewed, only 9 projects (all discontinued) did not have sufficient 

information to determine the project development phase (at the time the project was 

discontinued). However, GEA development phases could be estimated for all ongoing and 

postponed projects. 

Figure 3 shows the distribution of project phases across all projects. 2,228 MWe (35% of 

projects) were in the prospect phase, 1,987 MWe (31%) were in Phase I, 1,411 MWe (22%) were 

in Phase II, 639 MWe (10%) in Phase III, and 111 MWe (2%) were in Phase IV. The remaining 

65 MWe did not have sufficient information to determine development status. 
12

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Figure 3. Capacity of projects by GEA development phase (MWe). This figure shows the distribution of projects by 

phase for all projects (6,641 MWe total), including postponed projects and projects for which we had no 

information on development phase (labeled “unknown”). Over 65% of capacity was categorized as early stage 

development phases (Prospect and Phase I).

5 Analysis B: Where is the project going?

5.1 Data Sources

We used SNL Financial (2014) data to assign project status to three categories: ongoing, 

postponed, or discontinued (Figure 4). SNL Financial also provided the date on which the project 

was last verified. We then used the existence or absence of project data in the GEA reports to 

verify this project status. In all cases, we confirmed or altered status based on news, company 

websites, and financial reports about project development. Because of the regulatory implications 

of false reporting, we determined that company financial reports, such as 10-Ks, were the most 

credible sources for project status verification. 

5.2 Methodology

The projects we sourced from the GEA reports were designated ongoing, postponed, or 

discontinued using the following criteria: 

• Ongoing projects are projects that are currently in development and were defined by these 

characteristics: 

o Listed in the GEA annual report.

o Listed as ongoing in the SNL Financial database. 

• Postponed projects are projects that are no longer in development but were defined as 

having the intention to resume exploration at a later date:

o Listed as postponed in the SNL Financial database. SNL reclassifies announced 

projects as “postponed” if the developer indicates plans to develop but has not 

performed any activity in the most recent 24-36 months. 

o Explicitly indicated as postponed in company filings or news announcements. 

65 

111 

639 

1,411 

1,987 

2,228 

(blank)

Phase IV

Phase III

Phase II

Phase I

Prospect

 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

unknown
13

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

• Discontinued projects are projects that are no longer in development and with no 

intention to resume exploration at a later date and classified “discontinued” when a project 

had both of the following characteristics:

o Previously listed in the GEA annual report but not given in the current year.

o Listed as discontinued in the SNL Financial database.

If project data were sourced only from SNL Financial, we listed the project status using their 

designations of ongoing, postponed, or discontinued. 

Capacity that came online during the study period was removed, as it is no longer available 

project capacity for new generation.

5.3 Analysis

When possible, we performed additional research on publicly available information to verify 

project status. This research included searching agency sites to determine permitting status, along 

with searching owners’ and developers’ websites or financial reports. Of the 106 projects found in 

the SNL Financial database, 47 were categorized as discontinued. Fourteen projects did not have 

sufficient information to verify status. 

When project data were sourced exclusively from GEA reports—particularly when a project was 

listed only once in the GEA annual reports in 2012 or 2013 and not listed in the 2014 report—we 

investigated further using publicly available sources. This research included searches of agency 

sites to determine permitting status, as well as searches of owner and developer websites or 

financial reports. Of the 118 projects in this study that were based exclusively on GEA data, only 

the status for 2 projects could not be verified because of the scarcity of available public 

information, and 31projects were verified as having been discontinued.

5.4 Results

Figure 4 shows total estimated project capacity (in megawatts) and project status. For each status, 

we also distinguish between those projects for which there are publically available information, 

and those for which no additional information could be found. 

In the years 2012 through 2015, 6,441 MWe of projects were started. Of those projects, 4,047 

MWe are still active and another 2,394 MWe have been postponed or discontinued. The reasons 

for discontinuation are not formally consolidated in a single database, and were not researched as 

part of this effort.

For purposes of further analysis, our “sample dataset” (3,362 MWe) includes those projects that 

are postponed with additional information (698 MWe) and those that are ongoing with additional 

information (2,664 MWe).
14

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Figure 4. Project status analysis (2012–2015). Total Project Capacity Reviewed: 6,441 MWe. Nearly 75% of capacity 

is considered ongoing or postponed (4,812 MWe), but only 70% of this ongoing and postponed capacity (3,362 MW) 

had sufficient information for this analysis.

We categorized the full dataset (6,441 MWe) by geothermal region (Figure 5), which highlighted 

two geothermal regions that had a noteworthy portion of projects discontinued or postponed: the 

Northwest Basin and Range (parts of NV, OR, ID, CA) and the Gulf of California Rift Zone 

(southern CA), which could indicate significant barriers in these regions.

357

1,273

698

67

2,664

1,383

Total Project Capacity 

Reviewed: 6,441 MWe
15

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Figure 5. United States geothermal total estimated project capacity (in megawatts) by geothermal region (2012-

2015). This figure highlights areas that had significant proportions of projects that were either discontinued or 

postponed: Idaho Batholith (100%), Gulf of California Rift Zone (77%), Alaska (45%), Northwest Basin and Range 

(47%), the Walker-Lane Transition Zone (44%), and the Northern Basin and Range (36%).

6 Analysis C: Will the project be completed by 2020?

6.1 Data Sources

We reviewed the following information sources to identify potential project barriers and the 

viability of the project coming online by 2020: 

• News stories on company activities, permitting progress, and/or litigation results

• Press releases on PPAs

• Asset purchases and divestitures

• Company and agency websites

• Financial reports

• Agency reports and permits when available.

6.2 Methodology

Since geothermal has a typically long development timeframe, we analyzed hurdles impeding 

geothermal development. To identify the project barriers, we performed the following:

-

-

3 

5 

44 

66 

75 

65 

200 

235 

401 

456 

276 

521 

382 

465 

190 

664 

 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Northern Rockies

Southern Basin and Range

Not in Defined Region

Transition Zone

Southern Colorado Plateau

Southern Rockies

Snake River Plain

Hawaii

Alaska

Idaho Batholith

Rio Grande Rift Zone

Walker-Lake Transition Zone

Holocene Magmatic

Central Nevada Seismic Zone

Not available

Cascades

Walker-Lane Transition Zone

Northern Basin and Range

Gulf of California Rift Zone

Northwest Basin and Range

Ongoing

Postponed

Discontinued
16

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

• Reviewed available financial disclosures 

o Annual reports, company websites, and press releases were reviewed to identify 

the company’s outlook and spending on the projects. 

• Identified recent project ownership changes 

o We used SNL Financial records of asset and company mergers and acquisitions to 

identify the dates of ownership changes and party names associated with the 

transactions. Press coverage research of sales revealed additional information on 

the assets or business direction that may have prompted the ownership changes. 

Records of both the previous owners and the new owners were included in this 

search to verify the change. 

• Reviewed available permits and/or applications status 

o The status of permits in the process of being issued by the BLM is not transparent 

to the general public. We did, however, approximate status through research on the 

BLM website that indicated the existence of National Environmental Policy Act 

(NEPA) documentation (such as environmental impact statements and 

environmental assessments).2 The context supporting these documents, as well as 

associated outcomes, was considered a reliable source to determine barriers 

associated with permitting.

• Identified trends or significant recent events in media coverage and/or litigation

o When information from company sources and/or state agencies was insufficient or 

unavailable, we performed Google searches to find recent news coverage and 

litigation results. When projects faced previous significant delays, we conducted 

additional research to determine whether these delays would be ongoing. We 

included only ongoing causes of delay or litigation in this analysis. 

Using the sources described above, we identified development barriers causing project delays;

however, explicitly identifying the cause of the delay was not always possible. For example, a 

press release might announce that a PPA had been canceled with no information about what 

triggered the cancellation. In these instances, we relied on our analysts’ ability to interpret project 

activity from the publicly available information sources. In the example of a cancelled PPA, a 

developer may indicate they were unable to meet the PPA terms. The most supported conclusion 

was identified as a possible barrier. 

When we identified more than one barrier affecting project progress, we labeled the one with the 

most impact as primary and those with lesser impact as secondary. These labels were the result of 

compiling information collected in the barrier research process and developing a cohesive “story” 

about a project. For example, if the most significant project barrier appeared to be finding parties 

to obtain a PPA, we listed the primary barrier as “financing–PPA acquisition.” The secondary 

barrier was listed as “permitting–unspecified delays.”

 2 See http://www.blm.gov/wo/st/en.html for more information. See also the geothermal NEPA database, 

http://en.openei.org/wiki/RAPID/NEPA
17

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Since the analysis focused on projects that could potentially come online by 2020, we did not 

actively identify barriers on discontinued projects, but this information was recorded where 

readily available. 

Although this analysis estimates the capacity of geothermal projects to come online by 2020, 

future uncertainties and potential barriers may also affect project completion. This analysis 

considered only current barriers.

Because the primary analysis goal was to identify capacity for near-term development, we did not 

conduct an in-depth analysis of total possible resource potential available by area. This analysis 

may miss geographic areas with higher resource potential than those listed. 

This analysis may over- or under-represent project progress to meet the 2020 doubling goal. 

Given the qualitative data sets, the method described here relies on our analysts’ assessment of 

the severity of the development barrier and the project’s likely progress in the next five years. 

Although each conclusion is based on multiple data sources, we assumed that the analysts’ 

conclusions are objective, and the viability for development will not significantly change without 

external intervention. 

Table 4 lists the various categories that were assigned to each project as “barriers” (i.e. sources of 

delay) to progress in the project’s development.
18

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Table 4. Categories and Definitions of Project Development Barriers. Sub-categories of financing, 

permitting, and resource barriers developed from a review of project data.

Barrier Category Description 

No Information Barriers to project development not identifiable because of lack of public data

Technology Maturity Technology demonstration; not a commercial power project

Labor

Delays or additional steps relating to union, labor contract, or other worker 

unrest or disagreements; includes issues pertaining to finding adequate 

qualified labor 

Legal Delays caused by the development of legal documentation outside of the 

permitting process, such as contract negotiations and/or due diligence

Construction Modifications to plant design, interruptions to development, and/or other 

construction issues related to the plant developer or operator

Transmission Lack of access to sufficient electricity transmission or barriers to transmission 

development 

Financing

Access to capital Inadequate access to funding, delays in obtaining funding, negotiation of 

royalties or fees, or other barriers related to the procurement of PPAs

Capital budgeting Business delays specific to the owner, developer, and/or operator 

Change in ownership Ownership changes altering project progress (mergers and/or acquisitions)

PPA acquisition Limitations related to the procurement and maintenance of PPAs, including 

inability to secure a PPA or inability to meet PPA milestones 

Permitting

Unspecified delays Approvals and/or submissions of permits delayed for unspecified reasons

Community Community backlash and/or disagreement with development; NIMBY 

concerns

Environmental

Concerns by agencies and tribal entities relating to environmental quality or 

environmental impact

Cultural Potential delays resulting from site-specific concerns raised by tribal entities

Resource

Access

Topography, other geographical, and/or geological constraints to accessing 

the geothermal resource that prohibits exploration

Economics Resource determined not to be commercially viable for further development 

at the time 

Uncertainty Need for additional resource characterization, such as concerns for dry or 

unproductive wells 
19

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

6.2.1 Identifying Insufficient Information

In all phases of data collection, we marked projects “no information available” when we 

exhausted all sources of public information without finding information on, or current status of, 

the project. Public disclosure is characteristically absent on small privately owned projects. We 

also marked projects “no information available” however, when they were identified as under 

development but did not have recent or detailed public information or coverage to support a 

conclusion on project barriers or viability. Some projects were excluded because of our standard 

of requiring cited sources to determine project barriers and viability. 

6.3 Analysis

6.3.1 Analyzing Barriers by Phase of Development

The projected capacity and project development phase (data from SNL Financial and GEA 

reports) and the primary project barriers are itemized in Table 5. The major barrier for each phase 

of development is highlighted. The largest project capacity at each phase is defined by these 

barrier categories: 

• Prospect: PPA acquisition

• Phase I: access to capital

• Phase II: capital budgeting 

• Phase III: permitting.
20

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Table 5. Primary Project Barriers by Phase of Development (Capacity in MWe; Number of Projects in 

parenthesis). Major barriers at each stage are indicated in orange. Financing barriers affect the majority 

of capacity in Prospect, Phase I, and Phase II and permitting barriers affect the majority of capacity in 

Phase III.

Project Development Phase

Progress Barrier Prospect Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Total

No obvious barriers 20 (2) 57 (2) 231 (7) 37 (2) 53 (2) 398 (15)

Finance 357 (13) 476 (11) 454 (11) 230 (4) 1,517 (39)

PPA acquisition 223 (4) 67 (3) 41 (3) 159 (1) 490 (11)

Access to capital (2) 329 (4) 173 (3) 502 (9)

Capital budgeting 74 (6) 80(4) 200 (3) 30 (1) 384 (14)

Change in ownership 60 (1) 40 (2) 41 (2) 141 (5)

Permitting 200 (10) 370 (9) 45 (5) 255 (3) 30 (1) 1,017 (28)

Unspecified delays 45 (7) 50 (5) 45 (5) 255 (3) 30 (1) 425 (21)

Cultural 105 (2) 320 (1) 425 (3)

Environmental 50 (1) 50 (1)

Community 117 (3) 117 (3)

Transmission 100 (1) 70 (1) 170 (2)

Resource Uncertainty 7 (3) 35 (1) 58 (4) 2 (1) 102 (9)

Resource Economics - 50 (1) 25 (1) 75 (2)

Legal 25 (3) (3) 50 (1) 75 (7)

Construction 3 (1) 3 (1)

Total 708 (34) 1,131 (28) 888 (29) 549 (11) 86 (4) 3,362 (106)

Note: Projected capacities of ongoing or postponed projects are shown by GEA-defined project development phase 

and by primary recent barrier to project progress.

6.3.2 Analyzing Geothermal Project Viability

We used the same analytical process used in the barrier analysis to determine the likelihood of a 

project coming online by 2020 and its ability to contribute to the doubling goal. These categories 

are distinct from the determination of project status (operating, postponed, discontinued) because 

they specifically evaluate the project in respect to the 2020 timeframe. After identifying barriers, 

we qualitatively evaluated the project for the following characteristics: 

• Previous project hurdles, or resolved historical challenges that now allow the project to 

advance 

• Barriers impeding project timelines, particularly any current delays 

• Barriers stalling progress that must be resolved before development can continue. 
21

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Based on these evaluation criteria, we classified the project into one of the viability categories 

presented in Table 6.

Table 6. Categories and Definitions of Project Strategic Viability. Categories are qualitatively assigned 

based on the combination of a project’s barriers and development progress. 

Viability 

Category Description

Likely Project will come online by 2020 without additional support given current project progress.

Potential Project needs expedited development to overcome barrier(s) delaying project timelines to 

come online by 2020.

Stalled Project needs significant intervention to remove barrier(s) because the project is so severely 

affected by the barrier(s) that future development is halted.

All projects having a project status of ongoing or postponed were investigated for the viability 

criteria above. Our analysis does not predict the specific year that projects may come online.

SNL Financial provides data on the estimated year online for only a few selected projects. The 

verification of dates and the determination of timelines for all projects would require interviews 

with the individual developers and was beyond the scope of this analysis. 

6.4 Results

Table 7 tabulates projects in our sample dataset and associated progress barriers. Projects capable 

of producing a combined total of 784 MWe—21% of the 2020 goal—face either no development 

barriers, or barriers that would not likely interfere with project completion by the 2020 deadline. 

This analysis identifies only present barriers, not barriers that may develop as a project advances. 

It is possible that some of the 784 MWe found to face either no development barriers or barriers 

that would not likely interfere with project completion by the 2020 target study date will 

encounter barriers in the future that prevent deployment by 2020. 383 MWe of this 784 MWe 

(49%) are categorized in late stages of project development (GEA Phases III or IV); 401 MWe are 

categorized as early stage Prospect, Phase I, or Phase II at the time of analysis. 

Geothermal project delays related to particular tribal historical and cultural areas are site specific 

and not widespread. Other issues are more geographically diverse and less location dependent. 

For example, the most widespread issues are the prioritizing of capital spending on other projects 

and/or deferring spending on new projects. We would need more information about individual 

developer’s capital budgeting priorities to be able to understand the underlying causes for this 

reprioritization. These causes might include budgeting related to resource concerns, lack of 

projected future returns in comparison to other investment options, or an overall lack of sufficient 

capital for all projects. 
22

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Table 7. Projected Capacity, in Megawatts, of Ongoing or Proposed Projects. Financing is the greatest 

barrier for both stalled and potential projects. 

Progress Barrier

2020 Viability

STALLED: 

Needs

Barrier 

Intervention

POTENTIAL:

Needs 

Expedited 

Development

LIKELY:

Needs No

Additional 

Support

Total

2020 Viable 

Capacity

Financing 1,049 375 93 1517

PPA acquisition 220 177 93 490

Capital budgeting 334 50 - 354

Access to capital 484 18 - 502

Change in ownership 11 130 - 141

Permitting 515 237 265 1,017

Cultural 425 - - 425

Unspecified delays 40 120 265 425

Community - 117 - 117

Environmental 50 - - 50

No obvious barriers - - 398 398

Transmission - 170 - 170

Resource 108 44 25 178

Uncertainty 58 44 - 102

Economics 50 - 25 75

Legal 50 25 - 75

Technology maturity - 5 - 5

Construction - - 3 3

Totals 1,722 856 784 3,362

Note: The table does not include capacity of projects for which public information is not available to verify project 

status or infer current barriers.
23

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Our analysis suggests that approximately 784 MWe are expected to come online by 2020 (absent 

future barriers), and an additional 856 MWe could come online if existing barriers could be 

removed to expedite the project development. Significant support would be needed to bring the 

1,024 MWe of stalled, ongoing projects online by 2020. Overcoming barriers may also allow 

nearly 698 MWe of postponed projects to resume development to come online. Note that these 

capacities represent only those projects for which we had public information, but additional 

projects (for which we could find no public information) may also be helped to come online by 

2020 if barriers were mitigated. Figure 6 illustrates the total sample dataset (indicated with 

numbers) as a portion of the total dataset.

Figure 6. Total project capacity reviewed (6,441 MWe). Updated from Figure 4 to show portion of ongoing 

projects that are likely, potential and stalled, per Analysis C. The majority of project capacity reviewed is 

categorized as stalled (51%). Postponed projects were found to be stalled because research does not indicate a

likelihood for development to resume to achieve the 2020 goal. 

7 Results Summary and Conclusions 

7.1 Results Summary

Analysis A: Where is the project now?

• Approximately two-thirds of project capacity is located within the first two development 

phases (Prospect and Phase I).

Postponed -

Stalled, 698

Ongoing -

Likely, 784 

Ongoing -

Potential, 856 

Ongoing - Stalled, 

1,024 
24

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Table 8. Analysis A Results

Prospect 2, 228 MWe 35%

Phase I 1, 987 MWe 31%

Phase II 1,411 MWe 22%

Phase III 639 MWe 10%

Phase IV 111 MWe 2%

Not Available 65 MWe

Totals 6,441 MWe 100%

Analysis B: Where is the project going?

• Of the listed capacity in development, 1,629 MWe (25%) of the 6,441 MWe started since 

2012 is associated with projects that have been discontinued. An additional 765 MWe (12%) 

of project capacity is considered postponed indefinitely. 

• Projects that developers currently consider to be ongoing include 4,047 MWe (63%) of 

nameplate capacity. 

Analysis C: Will the project be completed by 2020?

• Of the 3,362 MWe that had sufficient information to review, we found 784 MWe are expected 

to come online by 2020 (absent future barriers), and an additional 856 MWe could come 

online if existing barriers could be removed to expedite the project development. 

Table 9. Analysis C Results

LIKELY (ongoing) 784 MWe 29%

POTENTIAL (ongoing) 856 MWe 32%

STALLED (ongoing) 1,024 MWe 39%

Ongoing – no further information 1,383 MWe

Postponed 765 MWe

Discontinued 1,629 MWe

Totals 5,441 MWe 100%

• Significant support would be needed to bring the 1,024 MWe of stalled, ongoing projects 

online by 2020.
25

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• Permitting and financing (both external and internal corporate finance priorities) are the major 

barriers to geothermal development.

• Addressing sources of permitting delays within agency processes (i.e., NEPA) as well as 

community concerns with geothermal development would potentially benefit at least 1 GWe

of capacity under development today. 

• Easing PPA negotiations and access to early-stage capital would benefit at least 0.5 GWe

under development that is categorized as stalled. 

7.2 Conclusions

Based on our analysis, the status of potential geothermal capacity that could address the 

President’s 2020 goal is as follows:

• Likely – Needs no additional support – 784 MWe

• Potential – Needs expedited development – 856 MWe

• Stalled – Needs barrier intervention – 1,722 MWe

• Unknown viability or barriers – Ongoing – 1,383 MWe 

• Unknown viability or barriers – Postponed – 67 MWe

If all of this 4,812 MWe of ongoing and postponed capacity came online by 2020 it would more 

than double the current capacity of approximately 3,765 MWe. Therefore, our analysis supports a 

conclusion that there are more than enough geothermal projects under development to double 

geothermal electricity generation by 2020, but that the majority of these projects are experiencing 

some barrier, making it unlikely for geothermal electricity generation to double by 2020 without 

significant actions that overcome these barriers. 

The largest barriers are not technical; they are permitting and financing. Of these two barriers, 

financing—specifically access to capital—seems to be the more significant obstacle. Of the 

1,049-MWe of capacity stalled by financing, 484 MWe (46%) is related to the lack of sufficient 

funding for further exploration. 

Overcoming barriers on an industry-wide level could allow for deployment of 4,047 MWe of 

ongoing projects, and 765 MWe of postponed projects—enough to more than double the current 

installed geothermal capacity in the United States.
26

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References

BLM. 2007. 43 CFR Parts 3000, 3200, and 3280 Geothermal Resource Leasing and Geothermal 

Resources Unit Agreements; Final Rule. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of the Interior/BLM. 

Accessed September 9, 2015. 

http://www.blm.gov/or/programs/minerals/files/geothermal_resources_agreements.pdf.

EIA. 2013. State Electricity Profiles. Accessed November 9, 2105. 

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/unitedstates/. 

———. 2015. Electricity: Form EIA-860 Detailed Data. Washington, DC: EIA. Accessed 

September 9, 2015. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/.

Executive Office of the President 2013a. Executive Office of the President. June 2013. The 

President’s Climate Action Plan. Accessed September 9, 2015: 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/image/president27sclimateactionplan.pdf.

———. 2013b. FACT SHEET: Presidential Memorandum on Federal Leadership on Energy 

Management. Accessed September 9, 2015. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2013/12/05/fact-sheet-presidential-memorandum-federal-leadership-energy-management.

Flóvenz, Ó.G. 2013. “Phases of Geothermal Development.” Presented at the Renewable Energy 

Training Program, Module 3 - Geothermal Energy, Reykjavík, Iceland. Accessed September 9, 

2015. http://www.esmap.org/sites/esmap.org/files/Flovenz%20Day%201%20-WB-2-phasesfinal.pdf.

Gawell, K. 2014. Statement of Karl Gawell Before the Senate Select Committee on California’s 

Energy Independence & Assembly Select Committee on Renewable Energy Economy in Rural

California. Accessed September 9, 2015. http://geoenergy.org/reports/FinalGEAStatementforApril3.pdf.

GEA. April 2014. 2014 Annual U.S. & Global Geothermal Power Production Report.

Washington, DC: GEA. Accessed September 9, 2015. http://geoenergy.org/events/2014%20Annual%20US%20&%20Global%20Geothermal%20Power%20Prod

uction%20Report%20Final.pdf.

———. April 2013. 2013 Annual US Geothermal Power Production and Development Report.

Washington, DC: GEA. Accessed September 9, 2015: http://geoenergy.org/pdf/reports/2013AnnualUSGeothermalPowerProductionandDevelopmentReport_Final

.pdf. 

———. April 2012. Annual US Geothermal Power Production and Development Report.

Washington, DC: GEA. Accessed September 9, 2015. http://geoenergy.org/reports/2012AnnualUSGeothermalPowerProductionandDevelopmentReport_Final.pdf

———. November 2010. New Geothermal Terms and Definitions: A Guide to Reporting 

Resource Development Progress and Results to the Geothermal Energy Association. Washington, 
27

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

DC: GEA. Accessed September 9, 2015. http://geoenergy.org/pdf/NewGeothermalTermsandDefinitions_January2011.pdf.

GeothermEx. 2004. New Geothermal Site Identification and Qualification. Sacramento, CA:

California Energy Commission Public Interest Energy Research Program. Accessed September 9, 

2015. http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/500-04-051.PDF.

Glacier Partners. October 2009. 3.5-Year Development Timeline.

http://www.georestore.com/cms_files/Geothermal%20Economics%20101%20-

%20Glacier%20Partners.pdf.

Islandsbanki Geothermal Research. 2011. U.S. Geothermal Industry Overview. Accessed 

September 9, 2015. 

http://skjol.islandsbanki.is/servlet/file/store156/item79399/U.S.%20Geothermal%20Industry%20

Overview.pdf

Neeley, K.W., and G. Galinato. 2007. Geothermal Power Generation in Idaho: An Overview of 

Current Developments and Future Potential. State of Idaho. Accessed September 9, 2015. 

http://www.energy.idaho.gov/informationresources/d/geo_power_generation_in_idaho.pdf.

Glacier Partners. September 22, 2009. Personal Interview. 

Nordquist, J., Ormat. September 22, 2015. Personal Interview.

OpenEI. July 2014. Geothermal Energy: Geothermal Regions. Accessed September 9, 2015. 

http://en.openei.org/wiki/Geothermal_Regions.

SNL Financial. 2014. “Power Plant Units.” SNL Financial Power Plant Search. Accessed August 

4–September 4 2014. https://www.snl.com/interactivex/bbsearch.aspx?persp=plant.

USGS. 2008. Assessment of Moderate- and High-Temperature Geothermal Resources of the 

United States. Reston, VA: USGS. Accessed September 9, 2015.

http://energy.usgs.gov/GeneralInfo/EnergyNewsroomAll/TabId/770/ArtMID/3941/ArticleID/730/

Assessment-of-Moderate-and-High-Temperature-Geothermal-Resources-of-the-UnitedStates.aspx.

Young, K.R., T. Reber, and K. Witherbee. 2012. Hydrothermal Exploration Best Practices and 

Geothermal Knowledge Exchange on OpenEI. PROCEEDINGS, Thirty-Seventh Workshop on 

Geothermal Reservoir Engineering. Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 30 -

February 1, 2012. SGP-TR-194. 

http://www.geothermal-energy.org/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2012/Young.pdf?
28

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

APPENDIX A: Comparison of Geothermal Nameplate and 

Summer Capacities

This analysis considers nameplate capacity because this value is the rated maximum output that 

the plant could sustain. Many power plants generate power below this nameplate capacity in the 

summer and above the nameplate capacity in the winter. Nameplate capacity is most relevant to 

this report’s analysis because it is the quantity reported by developers in all stages of project 

development prior to power plant construction. Net summer capacity, is the reported plant output

to the grid that a plant provides during the summer, though there are no reporting requirements 

provided for when this summer capacity is measured (e.g. average summer capacity, maximum 

summer capacity, time of day: morning, afternoon, night). The net summer capacity, however 

reported, is less than the nameplate for several reasons, including 1) it is the net capacity delivered 

to the grid after on-site power uses for activities such as well pumping, and 2) lower efficiency in 

summer due to the smaller brine-ambient air temperature differential. While net capacity 

represents the quantity of power available to the grid during the summer, this value is not known 

until a plant is operational. 

Figure A1. Comparison of Nameplate to Net Summer Capacity, 1990-2013. Figure shows current discrepancy 

between installed nameplate capacity (design output of installed projects) to net summer capacity (net output of 

geothermal power available for sale during the summer). As of 2013, EIA survey data from geothermal generators

shows that geothermal nameplate capacity was 3,765 MW in comparison to 2,607 MW reported net summer 

capacity. Sources: Energy Information Association (2015) Nameplate Capacity: Form 860 Generator Data, State 

Electricity Profiles (July 2015). Summer Capacity: Annual Energy Review (2015).

2,607 

3,765

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

 4,000

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Capacity (MW)

Summer Capacity (MW) Nameplate Capacity (MW)
29

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

APPENDIX B: Analysis D: How Much Additional Geothermal 

Potential Energy Can be Deployed?

B.1 Data Sources

We found no recent studies of undeveloped resource capacity by geothermal area. The estimates 

of resource potential in this report are published estimates (e.g., GeothermEx 2004) adjusted for 

the additional capacity that has come online since the estimate publication date. We used the 

following information to estimate geothermal resource potential: 

• Company-reported estimates from press releases, websites, and/or financial reports

• Annual reports, company websites, press releases, and notices of asset sales

• Literature or published estimates from federal or state agencies (e.g. USGS 2008), 

companies, consulting groups, and/or industry associations

• Project data aggregation from reported GEA project resource capacity or possible capacity 

as reported by SNL Financial. When the resource estimates were equal to or greater than 

the possible resource capacity, we used GEA resource estimates. When inadequate data 

were available, we used potential project capacity in development as resource capacity. 

The aggregation of project capacity in development from GEA and SNL Financial estimates 

served as a minimum conservative estimate of potential.

When there was limited publicly available information about a geothermal area, we conducted 

interviews to gain more information about projects in that area.

3

The source of geothermal nameplate capacity currently online came from unit-level data reported 

on the EIA Form 860 (EIA 2015). We developed capacity-online assessments for geothermal 

areas from a combination of the reported unit nameplate capacity, the unit status (i.e., 

operating/online), and the locations and counties of the units.

B.2 Methodology

This analysis did not quantitatively review all geothermal areas for their potential. We selected 

the areas with both the highest resource potential (i.e., resource capacity less operating capacity) 

and the perceived highest developer experience. From this selection we chose the top areas based 

on the following characteristics: 

• Areas with combined project resource capacity (based on aggregated project capacity in 

development from GEA reports and SNL Financial database)

• Geothermal area resource capacity identified from third-party reports (GEA 2015, 2014, 

2013, 2012; GeothermEx 2004)

• Review of landowner history of success with geothermal development (i.e., are the leases 

owned by a large, established developer, or by a small independent?)

• Review of investment analyst reports for their opinions on the industry, companies, and 

prospects (Islandsbanki Geothermal Research (2011)).

 3 Personal communication between Brian Fairbanks (Alternate Energy Resources) and Kermit Witherbee (NREL), 

May 13–15, 2014. 
30

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B.3 Analysis

The method we used to develop estimates of the top 10 areas of additional resource potential is as 

follows: 

• Research studies of resource potential by geothermal area:

o Create a unique list of geothermal projects with reported resource capacity and/or 

planned capacity 

o Review company-reported estimates of potential, via financial reports and 

interviews

o Review third-party studies of resource potential within geothermal areas.

• Identify capacity in development by geothermal area: 

o Create a unique list of geothermal projects under development and their 

characteristics 

o Research the project’s most recent events (or lack thereof) to identify the barriers 

to project progress 

o Categorize the likelihood that these barriers severely impede near-term project 

development

o Aggregate project capacity by geothermal area and barrier. 

• Identify capacity currently online by geothermal area. 

o Aggregate unit-level company-reported data into geothermal areas.

B.4 Results

If the barriers summarized in Table 7 cannot be addressed in the near term, the analysis of 

resource potential shows that significant resource capacity may remain undeveloped (Table B1).

Table B1 identifies more than 1.5 GW of untapped potential within the Salton Sea, the Geysers, 

and the Dixie Valley areas. 

For example, the Gulf of California Rift Zone is an area known to have high geothermal potential. 

Yet our analysis of project status (Figure 5) showed that a majority (634/824 MWe, 77%) of the 

projects in this region have been postponed or discontinued. Table B1 suggests that there is an 

additional 1,823 MWe (Salton Sea, East Brawley) of high-potential resource that remains 

undeveloped, likely due to local development barriers. The East Brawley Area shows a Capacity 

in Development (210 MWe) greater than the Additional Resource Potential (129 MWe). Though 

we have not researched the reason for this discrepancy, we suspect that the developers have more 

detailed data on resource (suggesting higher certainty) than did the references reporting potential.

Additional research is needed to determine why these areas are not being developed and to 

understand what additional barriers are preventing larger-scale development.
31

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Table B1. Top Resource Areas for Geothermal Development. Of the 11 reviewed, 5 areas have 

operational capacity online. Seven areas would have additional capacity remaining for development if 

current projects are completed.

Geothermal 

Area / KGRA

State

County

Operational 

Capacity 

Online

Additional 

Resource 

Potential in 

MW (ref)

Capacity In 

Development 

in MW

Balance 

Remaining 

in MW

Largest 

Current 

Development

Hurdle

Salton Sea CA Imperial 437 1,663 (3) 50 1613 Permit Delays

Geysers CA Sonoma/ 

Lake 1,585 815 (3) 401 414 PPA 

Acquisition

Glass 

Mountain CA Siskiyou 0 211 (3) 50 161 Cultural/ 

Environmental

East Brawley CA Imperial 0 129 (3) 210 0 Access to 

Capital

Silver Peak NV Esmeralda 0 160 (1) 160 0 Insufficient 

Information

Lee Allen NV Churchill 190 145 (2) 145 0 Insufficient 

Information

Renaissance UT Box Elder 0 100 (1) 0 100 Access to 

Capital

Willow 

Springs ID Bonneville 18 100 (4) 100 0 Transmission

Crane Creek ID Washington 0 179 (4) 50 129 Insufficient 

Information

Dixie Valley NV Churchill 60.5 342 (2) 51 291 PPA 

Acquisition 

Mammoth CA Mono 37 111 (3) 30 81 Permit Delays

Totals 2,327.5 4,395 1,247 2,789

KGRA: known geothermal resource area

Source: Operating capacity from EIA Form 860 generator nameplate capacity, 2014. Additional resource capacity 

determined from the following sources: 

• Estimates from GEA and SNL data compiled for this analysis 

• Geothermex (2004) 

• Gawell, K. (2014) 

• Neeley, K.W. and Galinato, G. (2007).