CONFERENCE ON SECURITY ENDS

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 14 Nov 85 p 15

[Excerpt]

A. DEMONSTRATION |
of explosives and
weapons yesterday
brought to a close a three-
day security seminar at-
tended by delegates from
South Africa and abroad.
The demonstration, at
the Sandock-Austral Se-
curity Academy's shoot-
ing range ‘in Knights on
the East Rand, included
hostage release tech- |
niques and weapon-hand-
ling demonstrations.

Delegates also wit-
nessed a new security
door developed _ by
Chubb’s Special Projects
Department. The door
was shown to be able to

withstand the impact of a

limpet mine attached to
the outside.

cso: 3400/472

Delegates were shown
the effect of a home-made
“pipe bomb” on a passen-
ger vehicle. Although just
half-a-kilogram of explos-
ives were used, the dem-
onstrafion vehicle was
ripped apart at the seams.

"The three-day seminar
was contributed to by rep-
resentatives from the
South African Defence
Force, the State Security
Council, the Security As-
sociation of South Africa, ”
the South African Police,
and Armscor.

A spokesman for Sand-
ock-Austral, . who ar-
ranged the conference,
told The Citizen that the -
im had been to promote
teraction between the

‘ private and public secur-

ity organisations, with a
view to bringing about an
integrated national secut-
ity strategy. !
‘The spokesman said
the course had been well- ,
attended, but it was un- +
likely that another would ;
be held in the near future.

54

JPRS*SSA=85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS*SSA+85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

CAR PRICES RISE--The motor industry today warned that average new car prices
will go up by between 30 and 35 percent in the next 12 months unless the
exchange rate of the rand makes a dramatic revival soon. Only a surge in
the rand's value to above 50 US cents -- from a current 38 cents -- offers a
chance to soften the shock to motorists. And a massive round of mergers
and takeovers among the main motor firms is now regarded as inevitable.

The closure of the Alfa Romeo and International Harvester operations are
reckoned to be only the first signals of a renewed battle to stay afloat.
The new estimates come from the National Association of Automobile Manu-
facturers (Naamsa) -- the official voice of the R10 billion a year industry.
Mr Nico Vermeulen, executive director of Naamsa, reports that the industry
as a whole is now ticking over at less than half capacity. More than 12000
jobs have been axed by assembly plants and thousands more are on short time.
And the industry has again made cuts in its estimates of future rates of
production, Naamsa now calculates that total passenger car sales for

1985 will be no higher than 198000 -- down from 268 751 last year and a
disastrous 34 percent below the peak in 1982. (Text] [Johannesburg THE STAR
in English 4 Nov 85 p 3]/12828

SATS JOBS LOSS--More than 4800 jobs have ceased to exist in the South
African Transport Services since March this year bringing the number of jobs
axed by the Sats to about 50000 in the past three years. According to the
latest figures released by Sats the organisation is losing more than RL
million a day and losses so far this financial year amount to a staggering
R450 million -- far more than the original budgeted loss of R192 million.
Last year Sats ended its financial term with a surplus of R25,9 million.
Sats general manager Dr Bart Grove has expressed hopes that the current
situation may be saved and losses cut by March next year. The 50000 lost
jobs represent an 18 percent cut. At present Sats employes 228438 workers
of all races. This figure includes 104384 whites, 17659 coloureds, 1894
Indians and 104501 blacks. [Text] [Johannesburg THE STAR in English 4 Nov
85 p 3] /12828

118



ANC CULTURAL SECRETARY MASEKELA ARRIVES

Accra, PEOPLE'S DAILY GRAPHIC in English 5 Nov 85 ppl, 4

Gfext/

/12851
cso:

‘THE African National
Congress (ANC) Se-
cretary responsible
for Arts and Culture,
Miss Barbara Maseke-
la, has arrived in Ac-
cra on a five-day visit
to Ghana.

She told newsmen at
the Kotoka Internatio-
nal Airport that the pur-
posd of her visit is to
complete arrangements
for a 30-member strong
ANC cultural troupe to
visit Ghana.

She will also hold
discussions with Govern-
ment officials aimed at
strengthening the solida-
tity existing between the
ANC and the PNDC Go-
vernment.

Miss Masekela ex-
plained that the visit of
the cultural troupe the
“Amandla Cultural En-
semble,” should have
taken place already “in
view of the unflinching
support we enjoy from
the Government and

people of Ghana.”

“Tam very much at
home in Ghana because
Ghana hag consistently
supported the ANC and
other African liberation

3400/420

20

movernents and as such,
we consider Ghana an im-
portant historical land-
mark in the liberation
struggle of the continent”,
she emphasised. i
__ The ANC secretary said
in furtherance of concrete
manifestations of ties bet-

ween the ANC and Ghana

“we will explore wavs, for
more ANC members to re-

ceive practical training in

the fields of arts and cult-

ure in Ghanaian institu-

tions.”

This, Miss Masekela
said, is particularly neces-
sary because “we are in the
most crucial and tragic
stage of our struggle consi-
dering the courage. deter-

mination and dedication of
my people to intensify the
liberation of our country”.

She added that South
African nationalists would
need short-term _ practi-
cal training in all spheres
of life to develop the skills
and talents which would
equip them for the admi-
nistration of the country
when finally liberated.

Miss Masekela was
met on arrival by the Se-
cretary for Culture and
Tourism. Dr Mohammed
Ben Abdallah GNA.

JIPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

GHANA



i

NOTE

JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign
newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency
transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language
sources are translated; those from English-language sources
are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and
other characteristics retained.

Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets
[] are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text]
or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the
last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was
processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor-
mation was summarized or extracted.

Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are
enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques-
tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the
original but have been supplied as appropriate in context.
Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an
item originate with the source. Times within items are as
given by source.

The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli-
cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government.

PROCUREMENT OF PUBLICATIONS

JPRS publications may be ordered from the National Technical
Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161. In order-
ing, it is recommended that the JPRS number, title, date and
author, if applicable, of publication be cited.

Current JPRS publications are announced in Government Reports
Announcements issued semi-monthly by the National Technical
Information Service, and are listed in the Monthly Catalog of
U.S. Government Publications issued by the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
20402. .

Correspondence pertaining to matters other than procurement
may be addressed to Joint Publications Research Service,
1000 North Glebe Road, Arlington, Virginia 22201.



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

FABER-CASTELL MAY SET UP PLANT IN RSA

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 12 Nov 85 p 3

{Article by Christ Cairncross]

[Text] ‘THE German Faber-Castell group, tie most importan market in oouthera
a leading manufacturer worldwi e Africa in which to maintain a strong
of writing and drawing materials, presence.
may decide soon to set up a manu- It has a well-developed education sys-
facturing plant in SA. tem and good infrastructure, which

This was confirmed by Faber-Cas- combine to provide the sort of elements
tell’s president Count Anton Faber-Cas- needed to offer a vigorous market for
tell, in an interview with Business Day Faber-Castell’s products.
while in SA to review his group's oper- He said the country had to overcome

ae said there were several opportuni- daunting problems but was optimistic it
ties fo broaden and improve ER com- would eventually find solutions.
any’s distribution base within the coun- He believed a strong gconomy was
y. going to be a decisive factor.

The company has only a sales organi- With roots set firmly at Stein, near
sation in ae and this level of representa- Nuremberg, West Germany, Faber-Cas-
tion was not entirely satisfactory. fell has Something oa a Ay:

The weak rand was beginning to cre- b ie nf
ate serious problems for the company, family has been in possession of this
said Faber-Castell. oot oe Te the G

“It is probable we will now have to s long ago as e German car-:
consider’ manufacturing in SA.” penter. Kaspar Faber was producing his
_ Despite the problems facing the coun- simple pencils.

/13104
cso: 3400/481

114



EXPERTS DISSECT DE KOCK REPORT

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 3 Nov 85 p 2

[Article by Dr Gad Ariovich]

[Te:

xt]

THIS week witnessed a rare
gathering of South Africa’s
top economic scholars aimed
at assessing the contents and
recommendations of the De
Kock Commission report on
the country’s monetary sys-
tem. ,

All the key speakers cri-
tised the Commission on both
a practical and a theoretical
level, to a greater or lesser
extent.

Prof Lachmann, the distin- °
guished South African econo- «
mist (in his late seventies is
still very active) argued that
the replacement of traditional
money such as gold and silver _
by credit instruments that |
“cost nothing to produce” is
an inherent inflationary dan- |

ger.

Now, after 40 years of +
worldwide inflation, this phe- «
nomenon is self-perpetuating ‘
via deeply routed inflationary
expectations.

He sympathised with the
Commission’s demand for dis-
cretion in its management of .
the country’s monetary af-
fairs but maintained that this
cannot be done “without ema-
sculating the spirit of mone-
tarism which the Commission ‘
seems to adhere to.” *

He referred to an article,
written almost 20 years ago, °
in which he had expressed the
view that inflation usually fa-
vours debtors at the expense -
of creditors and in order to ‘
fight inflation effectively poli-
cy-mhakers must inflict pain
on debtors and even let finan-
cial institutions go under!

Prof Lachmann doubted.,
that the authorities will allow ::
this to happen by abandoning «
their traditional function as
the lender of last resort. He
therefore wondered if mone-
tary policy could succeed in
South Africa.

RAU’s Professor De Wet
criticised the Commission on
both theoretical and technical
grounds, especially in respect
of its decision to control the
money supply via the demand
side — that is, by using inter-

-est rates as the operational

variable to control the money

supply.

He argued that the relation-
ships between interest rates
and money supply are compli-
cated and by trying to control
money supply via interest
rates, “the Reserve Bank will
most probably induce serious
instability into the South Afri-
can economic system.” :

63

JPRS-SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

The Professor suggested
the alternative control of
money supply from the supply
side through the cash reserves
of the banks — but only after
introducing appropriate modi-
fications to the local financial
system.

Professor Mohr of Unisa
argued that the Commission’s
approach to combating infla-
tion is almost suicidal.

He pointed out that the
Commission has not really as-
sessed various alternative
policy options via a
cost/benefit approach.

For instance, he says: |
“While reviewing the costs of
inflation in isolation, it has”
neglected to weight the cost
of inflation against either the
costs of non-attainment of
other objectives or the costs
(or side-effects) of the anti-in-

flation policy that it recom-
mends.”

Indeed, the destruction of
the construction, capital and
durable good industries dur-
ing the present economic re-
cession can be a case in point
for his argument.

This is, of course, against
the standpoint of the Reserve
Bank, which suggests a clear
negative association between

» them.



JPRS*SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

ouuit AFRICA

SHIPYARDS BENEFIT FROM LOW RAND VALUE
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 29 Oct 85 p 5

{Article by George Young]

[Text]

WHILE it is no secret that estab-
lished shipping lines trading with SA
are suffering the effects of both the
international recession and the low-
valued rand, these circumstances
have also produced important de-
velopments representing formid-
able revenue for the country.

In the struggle of politics versus eco-
nomics, there is no doubt that in the eyes
of the Eastern bloc, economic factors
constitute the major consideration.

While much anti-SA rhetoric flows
from the UN, communist countries have
been spending many thousand rand
overhauling and repairing their ships in
SA dockyards.

About half-a-dozen vessels were refit-
ted during the past week, and more are
coming in.

When a communist government was

assailed by the anti-SA lobby in the UN :

for patronising facilities in this country,
the shipping department of the commu-
nist government forwarded a copy of the
protest to SA marine engineers without
comment — and the following week
more ships came in,

Anglovaal shipyards are currently |

heavily committed on Eastern-bloc
ships in for refit.

The fact that ship repairs in SA are °

now the cheapest in the world has been
the deciding factor.

Formerly-competitive yards in Por-
tugal and Singapore have suffered such
serious financial trauma that there have
been major staff cutbacks, and one of
the Singapore concerns is closing one of
its shipyards.

That there is not more business in SA
yards is attributable not only to politi-
cally hostile governments, but mainly to
shipowners having cut down on repair
work and preferring to expunge old
ships rather than repair them.

74

There are currently 947 ships of
various types laid up in world ports. Of
the scores of tankers which, until seven
years ago used the Cape route to Europe,
about 250 have been scrapped as surplus
to demand, and 248 are laid up in various
parts of the world.

‘The next voyage for most will be their
last — to scrapyards.

Another important breakthrough
secured by South Africa and credited
with saving millions of US dollars, is the
Successful use of a residual wax/oil
product from Sasol (formerly dumped
down disused mine shafts) in the diesels

: of the nation’s second-largest commer-

cial fleet, Unicorn.

Cheaper, more efficient and cleaner.
than imported fuels, the Sasol product,
marketed by a Durban engineer Tony
Hurter and tested in Unicorn ships, has
saved the country a formidable sum in
foreign currency.

Unicorn ships now make foreign voy-
ages using WO 20, and two foreign con-
cerns working out of this country have
also seen virtue in it and made the
change. .

hn Care has been taken io. ensure there is
'o water in the fuel. While it is recog-
nised that there is a limit to the rate of
production of WO 20, I am assured the
demand js still far short of the supply,

Ss

, and it is no secret that the voyage profit
| of Unicorn reflect the benefits of the
lower-flashpoint, more efficient SA fuel.

It is noteworthy that lines which take
normal bunkers in these waters have
had to be told by their suppliers that
there is a shortage of furnace oil in
Southern Africa, attributable mainly to
the efficient refining of lighter fuels
which leaves very little over for othe}

~ purposes, ,

'



JPRS“SSA-85~123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

AGRO-INDUSTRY CROP RESEARCH PROMISES BUMPER HARVEST

Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 31 Oct 85 p 1

[Text]

13104
cso:

HORO ALELTU (ENA) — The
Agro-industry Crop Research in Horo
Aleltu district, Wollega region, promis-
es bumper harvest during the current
crop season, according to experts.

Comrade Luvic Jacov, chief agrono-
mist of the Yugoslav-assisted research.
station, said the amount of ‘various
crops and vegetables collected on the
100 hectares cultivated so far during
the current harvest season was éatisfa-
ctory and that there are plans to expa-
nd the cultivated acreage to 500 hecta-
res. Comrade Jacov told a visiting team
of journalists that Horo Aleltu district
has enough rainfall and that its terrain
and climatic condition were both favo-
urable for crop and vegetable farming,
adding that the existence of a rich wa-
ter system favourable for irrigation ag-
riculture holds great potential for ve-

getable farming.
The chief agronomist stated that the

arrival soon of agricultural machinery

3400/499

10

from Yugoslavia will help expedite wo-
tk at the agro-industry research pro-
ject.

It was reported during the tour by
the journalists that research is under
way on selected strains of loca] and Yu-
goslav imported maize as well as on

various vegetables. The research, which

started work seven months ago, is ap-
plying modern technology to overcome

the problems of flood and high-velocity
wind to both of which the area is ex-
posed.

Comrade Abate Mengesha, head of
the research station, said on his part
that 86.4 million birr of the
100,800,000 birr slated for the project
‘was obtained from the Yugoslav gover-
“nment for the purchase of agricultural

machinery and expert service, The re-

maining 14.4 million birr was allotted
by the Revolutionary Government,

It was also reported that 176 kms of

feeder roads have been so far built to
connect farms within the project area.



16 December 1985

KRUGERRAND BAN IMPACT--NOTTINGHAM ROAD--South Africa stood to lose about
R940-million in foreign exchange if the US ban on Krugerrands was extended
worldwide, Mrs Helen Suzman said last night. The PFP MP for Houghton said
the US ban was "no peccadillo". South Africa had sole 450 million dollars’
worth of Krugerrands to the US last year, against 700 million dollars in
1983. "If this ban should become worldwide, it could mean the loss of
some R940-million in foreign exchange," she said. [Text] [Johannesburg THE
CITIZEN in English 7 Nov 85 p 3] /12828

SOUTHERN CAPE WELCOMES GAS ANNOUNCEMENT--Johannesburg, Nov 14, SAPA--The
announcement this afternoon by the state president, Mr P.W. Botha, about the
development of the gas fields at Mossel Bay has been greeted with elation in
the southern cape, SABC radio news reports. The chairman of the Afrikaanse
Sakekamer [Afrikaans Chamber of Commerce] at Mossel Bay, Mr Jan Wandrag, said
there would be an economic upswing in the area and that the development would
make South Africa less dependent on foreign oil. It would also ease the
problem of unemployment in the southern cape. [Text] [Johannesburg SAPA in
English 1509 GMT 14 Nov 85] /9599

PLAN TO TRAIN MORE COPS--Plans to nearly double the police force over the next
10 years will not lead to a drop in training standards, says a police spokes~
man. The Minister of Law and Order, Mr Louis le Grange, announced at the
weekend that the force would be expanded to nearly 87,000 men and women
within the next 10 years. This is an increase of about 40,000 people. In
recent years the force has been unable to meet its actual staff requirements
and according to the most recent. annual report of the Commissioner of Police,
General Johan Coetzee, the force was understaffed by nearly 900. Staff
losses during the year to June 1984 were 2,623 men and women, and 6,426 new
recruits and ex~policemen joined the force. This would indicate that the
force increased at a rate lower than that required by the Minister to meet
the required complement by 1995. Asked whether the need to expand the force
rapidly would lead to a drop in standards, a police spokesman in Pretoria said
the training courses would be kept the same although it was possible that a
week of training for a passing-out parade could be dropped. The spokesman
said recruiting was going exceptionally well and that more than 4,500 applica-
tions to join the force were being processed. [Text] [Johannesburg SOWETAN
in English 15 Nov 85 p 2] /9274

TRAINEES LACK ENGLISH USAGE--A recent survey conducted at 52 black teachers’
training colleges showed that the average reading age in English of the stu-
dents was the equivalent of a nine-and-a-half-year-old. According to the na-
tional director of the Read Educational Trust, Mrs Cynthia Hugo, the poor
reading ability of black student teachers was very serious. "If teachers read
at this level they are unable to communicate effectively in English, the medi-
um of instruction, due to an inadequate vocabulary and understanding of the
language. "Nor are they able to handle the subjects in their curricula satis-
factorily. They cannot teach adequately or even cope with text book informa-
tion," said Mrs Hugo. Library facilities at the colleges were very poor, Mrs
Hugo said. “Without proper library facilities, student teachers cannot de-
velop the self-confidence which comes from knowing a subject and having suffi-
cient background knowledge to be above the level of the pupil." In the next
few months Mrs Hugo said Read, with the support of the private sector, planned
to establish resource centers at each of the country's 52 black colleges of
education. Companies wanting to contribute to the creation of source centres
in the colleges should contact Mrs Hugo. The telephone number at Read is
880-1100. [Text] [Johannesburg SOWETAN in English 15 Nov 85 p 2] /9274

cso: 3400/469
123



Training is something which the Mhiume Sugar Company is very committed to.
In the past 15 years they have expanded around Bl million in this field. In
1970 the department of training and localisation was established formally,
and now the company is 97% localised, having only 48 expatriate members of
staff on contract.

A clinic with two doctors provides free medical treatment for all employees
and their dependants. In addition there is an effective welfare system,

@ pre-school and educational facilities for children up through Stendard

8 on the Estate.

Everyone knows that all work and no play will make Jack a very dull boy;
and the company is no exception. They provide large social centres for
their employees where they. can go for a drink after work, a swim, play a
game of tennis or participate in a game of soccer.

The record production of 145,896 tonnes of sugar at Ubombo in their 198li-
season is attributable to much better cane yields peing achieved by both
the estate and the growers and to an improved overall recovery.

Mill extraction, however, was not as good as could have been: expected,
since some teething problems were being experienced with the new diffuser
installation. These appear to have been resolved, and Ubombo is now in
a position to fully benefit from the improvements effected during the
1982 mill expansion. In 1985, they expect to reach their quota.

Ubombos profit before tax in 198k increased by 32% from 1983 and was by
far the most significant contributor to Lonhro's group profit in 1984.

/12851
cso: 3400/416

129



/12828
CSO:

3400/438

“This Jatter option
could even be viewed as
an alternative to a coastal
nuclear power _ station
provided sufficient gas
and oil have been located
to satisfy domestic liquid
fuel requirements.”

There is little likeli-

hood of another oil refin-

ery being erected as pres-
ent capacity utilisation for
the three coastal and one
inland refineries is esti-
mated to average about
60 percent. But these will
be optimised and up-
graded to crack the barrel
even further,” Dr Neethl-
ing says.

A second round of
large-scale synfuel pro-
duction in presently
under consideration by
the Government, includ-
ing a coal-to-synfuel plant
by AECI and Amcoal and
an oil-to-syncrude project
by Gencor.

‘These multi-million
rand synfuel projects will
not only have a significant
impact on the local ener-
gy industry but will place
service demands on the fi-
nancial and industrial and
skilled manpower re-
sources of the country, Dr
Neethling points out.

“Whether the man-
power, particularly engin-
ecrs and technicians for
these megaplants is avail-
able could well be an-
other matter.”

Total foreign - savings
for these synfuel projects
could exceed R1 000-mil-
lion a year. The viability
of synfuel projects too,
which are sensitive to the
dollar exchange rate and
the international oil price,
improves in correspond-
ing economic con
such as are prevailing in
South Africa, Dr Neethl-
ing points out.

69



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

MAURITIUS

DUVAL SPEAKS OUT AGAINST PRETORIA
Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 2 Nov 85 p 3

[Text]

Sir Gaetan DUVAL, deputy prime minister of Mauritius, has for the
first time spoken out clearly against the South African government,
asserting that the authorities in that country had "suicidal tendencies"
and raising the question of possible sanctions against South Africa. His
remarks came shortly before his arrival in Madagascar on October 29 at
the head of a sizeable delegation of 66 people, including the finance
minister, Vishnu LUTCHMEENARAIDOO. Sir Gaetan is well aware, of course,
that the Malagasy authorities view him with suspicion and had already
managed to have his visit postponed a few weeks previously. It appears
that his anti-South African remarks were at least partly intended to make
himself acceptable in Madagascar.

At the same time, prime minister Anerood JUGNAUTH made it clear on his
return from the Commonwealth summit conference in the Bahamas that there
could be no question of Mauritius implementing any sanctions against
South Africa without compensation for its resulting losses from other
countries.

19274
cso: 3400/475

27



NORWEGIAN SHIPOWNERS SEEK TO RETAIN RSA TRADE

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 85 p 5

[Article by George Young]

[Text] NORWEGIAN shipowners are
having a row with their govern-
ment over maritime links with
SA.

SA’s regular sea connections with
Canada are handled totally by. Nor-
wegian lines.

There is an agreement between
Safmarine and. Thor Dahl that the
Norwegian service will not. load in
United States ports if Safmarine
stays out of Canada.

Norwegian shipowners earn an es-
timated §$35m a year from their SA
links and curtailment of this arrange-
ment could result in the paying-off of
up to 700 workers ashore and at sea.

Apart from the liner service with
Canada, Norwegian vessels also par-
ticipate in the bulk trades.

If the Norwegian government in-
terferes with commercial shipping
connections with SA, owners could
switch to flags of convenience just as
56 other Norwegian ships have done
-in the past few months.

Owners have found that the opera-
ition of cargo ships on competitive
jtrades, while flying national colours,
: was no longer profitable.

113104
CsO: 3400/481

Insistence by trade unions that
Norwegian crews should be carried,
appropriate wages paid and gover-
ment taxes covered, meant that Nor-
wegians were fast being driven off
the sea.

The switch to foreign flags meant
owners could employ crews cheaper,
under Norwegian officers, and there
could be no government interference.

Norwegian shipowners resent gov-
ernment suggestions that they report
all connections with SA.

They emphasise that important
contracts for bulk cargoes would be
endangered if shippers were subject
to scrutiny.

In its insistence that no tankers
should be involved in trade with SA,
the Norwegian goverment is playing
into the hands of other foreign carri-
ers who have no such qualms.

There is a belief that Norwegian
goverment plans will be quashed
after representations by the nation’s
largest shipowners, whose revenues
are of major importance to the Trea-
sury. :

98

JPRS*SSA+85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS*SSA“85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

PLANS UNDERWAY TO SET UP GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE IN DAKAR OR PARIS

Johannesburg SOWETAN in English 12 Nov 85 p 5

[Text] - . . . .
PARIS — Moves are Ben Yahmed, owner _ forward by exiled Brey-
afoot to form a multi- and publisher of the ten Breytenbach who
race South African Weekly Paris-based livesinParis, =
government-in exile €Ws-magazine Jeune In conversations with
based here or in Dae “frique. Afriéan sources here,
kar in Senegal He has used his mag- Mr Breytenbach was

Black diptomats here Zine to bounce off this mentioned as an abvious
confirm there are moves iden on a wide audience ' choice as a minister in
to form a South African Africa. ge bovernment cine
government-in-exile, on 4, 44° Pointed out that exile.
the lines of the Algerian [he white Pretoria re.) But even Mr Ben
body Seta during the gime had turned South Yahmed admitted that
war with Fronce 8 Africa into a country the formation of such a

‘A. possible seal ital” where “criminals are — government would take
forthe anti-Pretoria Doth the judges and ex- some time. :
government is Paris, but ¢°Utioners. As apartheid he idea would be
a number of African ‘8 itself a crime, those that the white govern-
leaders, it ig re orted fighting it cannot be ment would gradually
heve ‘prefer Dakar Sn criminals.” lose both power and:
the prounds that it is, This form of reason- credibility, so that an
better to be seen operat- ing has been repeated a alternative authority
ing from the black conti- number of times re- would have to be put m
nent than from Europe. cently in the French me- _ its place. This is when!

In addition, President | 18 by Africans, and is - "the governmentin-exile
Abdou Diouf of Senegal ' #” afgument first put would {ake over.
is also the president of
the Organisation of Af-
rican Unity and he has
taken the lead in Afri-
ca’s anti-apartheid cam-
paigns.

He is the first OAU
president, for instance,
who has visited the
Frontline states. .

The idea of a govern-
ment-in-exile has been
floated through a well-
respected Third World
editor. He is Mr Bechir

19274 '

cso: 3400/469

34



Geldenhuys believes there is
evidence to suggest that firms’
revenue is already so badly af-
fected that prices can only be
increased.

SA Transport Services is a case
in point. The projected loss this

ear of R450m will sea i the

fare and tariff increases in the
next SATS budget.

One thing is certain — infla-
tionary expectations have not
been dampened. These in them-
selves will fuel inflation.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS:
Few economists see the rand fo
ing above $0,5000 next year. The
average forecast is a shade over

$0,4500.

With sluggish growth in indus-
trialised economies pegging de-
mand for raw materials at rough-
ly current levels, next year’s
trade surplus should remain
about the same — though a warn-
ing on the strength of the dollar.
should be noted.

T.. currency is weakening
and seems likely to continue do-
ing so in the face of pressure
from the Group of Five. Gelden-
huys is forecasting a rate of DM

2,30-DM2,40 by the middle of next -

year.

A large chunk of SA’s exports
(probably as much as 75%) could
probably sneak through potential
sanctions’ nets — but at lower
prices.

Imports may be further re-
duced through political action
and import replacement activity
as the low value of the rand

makes imports prohibitively ex-..

pensive.

Most economists have as-'

sumed that much of that surplus

on the current account of the bal- °

ance of payments will be eaten
up by the repayment of foreign

debt. But there are serious doubts

developing on this front.
SA authorities are believed to

be formulating a plan — to pre- |

sent at the next round of resche-

duling talks later this month —
which calls for repayment of cap- ,

: ital starting in three to five years’
time.

59

If accepted, or unilaterally im-
"posed, this would allow more ex-
rt funds through to the domes-
ic economy and aid growth
prospects — although the au-
horities are likely use the oppor-
tunity to build up run-down re-
serves,

P vcsicions of next year’s
trade surplus vary from Stellen-
bosch BER’s optimistic R8,076bn

‘to Ari Uliel’s pessimistic
R2,155bn. The average forecasted
is R5,100bn.

SPENDING: Very few people are
going to enjoy an increase in dis-
posable income next year. Sala-
ties have already been severely
dented by inflation and any in-
creases this year will be much
lower than the current inflation ‘
rate of 16,6%.

In addition, the level of unem-
ployment has more than dou-
bled in the last 18 months. But ;
lean, hungry and more efficient :
companies coming out of a se-
vere recession are not going to
restaff in a hurry.

Lower real disposable income
and high levels of unemployment
mean that real consumer spend-
ing is not going to grow next year,
unless tax is significantly re-
duced.

There is no unanimity on whe-
ther companies will build up in- ‘
ventories next year.

Some economists (such as
RAU’s Geert de Wet) expect
some net build-up of inventories.
But the majority expect destock-
ing. to continue.

loete says that the firms have
become more aware of the ex-

» pense of carrying high stock lev-
els and will tread carefully next
year. In any event, with sluggish
consumer spending, most com-
panies will not need to build up
stock levels,

Fixed investment will continue
to decline as firms rebuild their
balance sheets (fixed investment
is forecast to decline by an aver-
age of 2,4% next year, according

ito the Financial -Mail’s Blue

Chip Forecast).



JIPRS*SSA+85*123
16 December 1985

MOZAMBIQUE

BRIEFS

ITALIAN CRANES AT MAPUTO PORT--Two container-handling cranes made by the
Italian firm Ausaldo Sistemi Industriali have entered service at the port.
of Maputo. They have a top capacity of 27 units/hour. [Text] [Paris
AFRICAN DEFENCE JOURNAL in English Oct 85 p 3] /9274

FRENCH WIN ORDER FOR BARGE CONSTRUCTION--The Ateliers et Chantiers Navals
shipyards of Chalon-sur-Saone (France), a subsidiary of the SFCN shipyards
(Societe Francaise de Constructions Navales), have taken an order (No 845)
for the construction of four barges. Two of them will be 30 ton motorized
craft and two of them 200 ton craft. [Text] [Paris AFRICAN DEFENCE JOURNAL
in English Oct 85 p 3] /9274

SWEDISH POWER--Mozambique's minister for industry and energy, Antonio Branco,
who paid a visit to Sweden this week and had meetings with a number of govern-
ment officials, talked in particular to the heads of SWED-POWER, a company
specializing in electrical power transmission. The company could be given the
job of taking power from the Cahora Bassa Dam to neighbors Zimbabwe and Malawi.
[Text] [Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 2 Nov 85 p 7] /9274

NEW AIR LINK WITH LESOTHO--Mbabane--A new air link between Mozambique and
Lesotho was launched at the weekend by the Royal Swazi Airways. It is seen
as a major step in the development. of air communication between Southern
African Development Co-ordination Counties (SADCC). It connects with
flights to Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania and other SADCC countries as well as
Nairobi, European and other international centres. [Text] [Johannesburg
THE CITIZEN in English 5 Nov 85 p 11] /9274

cso: 3400/473

30



DE KOCK DOWNPLAYS INFLATION FEARS

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 9 Nov 85 p 17

[Text]

/12828
CSO:

THE Governor of the Re-
serve Bank, Dr Gerhard
de Kock, said in Pretoria

yesterday money supply’

growth had slowed from
peaks touched in Novem-
ber last year, when M-3
rose by 24,7 percent year-
on-year, M-2 by 28,9 per-

"cent and M-1 by 39,6 per-
cent.

He said that in the first
nine months this year
money growth at a sea-
sonally adjusted annual
rate showed a negative 2,-
6 percent for M-1 and
gains of 11,3 percent for
M-2 and 12,5 percent for
M-3.

Dr De Kock said the la-
test money supply figures
showed that fears of a
sharp rise in infaltion next
year were exaggerated.

South African M-3
money supply growth
slowed to 15,4 percent in
September from a year
earlier after rising 18,9
percent year-on-year.

3400/438

M-2 growth slowed to
14,6 percent in Septem-
ber from 18,7 percent in
August and M-1 to 5,5
percent from 16,8 per-
cent. M-3 comprises M-2
plus all other deposits of
the non-bank private sec-
tor.

M-3 fell to R45,89-bil-

lion in September from
R45,91-billion in August,
M-2) was virtually _un-
changed at R40,51-billion
and M-1 fell to R24,30-
billion from 26,08-billion.

Dr De Kock noted the
M-3 growth rate was well
below the inflation rate.

Consumer prices rose 16,-
56 percent in September.
He said that a subtle
shift in emphasis towards
growth from curbing in-
flation did not mean that
the Reserve Bank had
thrown in the towel as far
as inflation was con-
cerned, — Reuter.

62

JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



. RSA SHIPPING MARKET FIRMER

JPRS*SSA*854123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 85 p 5

[Text]

13104
cso:

3400/481

THE South African freight-shipping

market, reports Afromar, was one 0!
the few to show a firmer trend last
week.

It was mostly easier elsewhere as
increased demand failed to material-
ise in the Atlantic and Pacific.

For a panamax vessel $13,25 was
Raid for a cargo from the US Gulf to

Japan. It was subsequently learnt
that one of the major grain houses
had arranged four cargoes over 1986
at $13, which is not very reassuring
for owners. At the same time, $8,10
was paid for a cargo out of the Us
East Coast to the Continent.

‘The Biffex spot index rose slightly
to 914,5. However, it was felt that
some easing would be seen and that
January would see the level slip back
to below 900 points.

There were rumours that $9,15 had,

been accepted by a vessel loading
rain from the US north Pacific to
japan, indicating that owners are
making little progress in that area.
The SA market continued Steady,
with a good level of inquiry. It

. understood a 28000-ton cargo of

maize was arranged to Japan but no
details

A cargo of 10000-12000 tons of
wheat was being quoted from Rouen

‘to Maputo for shipment in November-

/December.

* There has been further inquiry for
coal cargoes, for loading during No-
vember, and rates have maintained
their levels. Interest was seen for
handy sizes to both the Far East and
to the Continent, although little re-
ported fixing was disclosed.

French charterers came into the
market to lift a cargo of 120 000 tons
from Richards Bay to Rotterdam and
Le Havre, and there was inquiry for a
60 000-80 000-ton cargo to the Spanish
Mediterranean or Continent.

At least one Japanese charterer
was looking at taking a vessel on
time-charter to cover a cargo out of
Richards Bay.

One of the major oil companies was
looking for a self-discharger for
35000 tons from Richards Bay to
Malta for end-November/early-De-
cember loading.

There were several orders for
manganese ore out of Port Elizabeth,
including 15 000 tons to be moved to
Setubal and 7500 tons to Pohang in
South Korea.

European interests were looking
for cover for 15000-20000 tons o!
chrome ore from Richards Bay to
Japan for shipment during Decem-

r.

99



JPRS*SSA~85+123
16 December 1985

The National Party mouthpiece newspaper, Beeld, yesterday reported that the
project would cost R3000 in present prices but this would escalate to R4500
before work was completed. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English

1 Nov 85 p 2] /12828

WHEAT IMPORTS SET--South Africa may ‘have to spend up to R120m on imported
wheat next year. Rains in the Free State have come too late to save a
large part of the province's crop, says Wheat Board chairman Dennis van
Aarde. He says drought has accounted for 250000 to 300000 tons of the
August assessment of a 750000-ton Free State harvest. The total crop is
expected to be about 1,7-million tons--300000 tons less than local require-
ments. The FOB price of wheat at US ports is $134 a ton. However, because
of the weak rand, the landed price would be about R400 a ton. Van Aarde
says some inferior Argentine wheat, $35 to $40 cheaper than the US variety,
may be imported to minimise costs. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in
English 1 Nov 85 p 3] /12828

ESA FREIGHT LINE FAILS--Europe & South Africa Lines (ESA), an independent
freight shipping line, has filed for bankruptcy in Hamburg, West Germany.
This was confirmed yesterday by a spokesman for the line's South African
agent, Global Maritime Agencies: He denied reports that one of the line's
vessels had been attached in Rotterdam. "The ESA 1 discharged its cargo in
Rotterdam on Wednesday," he said. "Suggestions that the vessel or its cargo
were attached are untrue." The Lin's two other vessels are on their way to
Europe with South African cargoes. The Planel 1 sailed from Cape Town this
week and the Elvira Oria is expected to sail on Monday from Las Palmas,

in the Canary Isles, where it has been undergoing repairs for two weeks
after damaging a crankshaft in heavy seas. ESA, owned by a European shipping
consortium, began servicing the Europe-SA cargo trade about two years ago.
All three of its vessels are chartered. The Global Maritime spokesman
claimed there was no dnager of any cargoes being attached by ESA's creditors.
He added that other plans were being made for export cargoes booked on ESA
voyages. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 1 Nov 85 p 1] /12828

ECONOMY THREATENED--Before any government reform programme impressed overseas
opinion, it would have to attract at least some reasonable support from the
communities within South Africa, according to Director-General of Foreign
Affairs CFG von Hirschberg. In his keynote. address to the Bifsa congress,
Von Hirschberg said SA was facing a situation that was potentially the most
serious in its history. "And yet ironically never before have we had an
official programme that is more likely to produce political accommodation
in this country," he said. Von Hirschberg--who described the current
economic situation as the greatest enemy South Africa faced--said the reform
measures provided for the full political participation of all communities
in government on matters of national concern. In addition, the programme
accepted the principle of power-sharing in government decision-making--
subject only to the protection of the rights and interests of minorities
within SA. "In short, the door is wide open, for the first time in our
history, for the achievement of the political aspirations of at least a
majority of the population." Von Hirschberg said the disturbances within th
black community were instigated by revolutionaries and radicals committed to
a strategy of violence against moderate blacks in an effort to coerce them
into rejecting negotiation. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English

29 Oct 85 p 3] /12828

121



. relative security.

At the outset — provided the ~
authorities are aware of what is !
happening — the infiltrators will '
be extremely vulnerable because é
they will depend on the
population to feed, clothe, house
and hide them.

They run the risk of betrayal
as many people could reject their
message because they are too in-
volved in the system. People .
might not want to lose their jobs,
or might see the possibility of
progress through the existing edu- {
cational system. Hl

In the second phase they will !
depend on neighbouring states to
provide safe havens, hideouts,
places to cache arms and train in 4

‘
“One cannot overestimate the

* importance of international sup-

port for them on South Africa’s
borders. At the same time South
Africa has made it a priority to ,

Living in a State of Siege

° WHAT will life be like if the ANC

succeeds in stepping up its pres- ;
ent disruptive activities?

In the view of Dr Simon Bayn-
ham a psychology of siege is al-
ready manifesting itself here and
he sketches this scenario if the
breakdown in law and order esca-

. lates:

Vigilantes will be formed in
both city and country areas to
set up inter-street communication

‘and protect lives and homes. In

certain instances these will have

: the approval of the security
«forces, who will exercise some
control.

In country areas, especially,
they will be “cowboy” units which
are a law unto themselves...

Item: Kraaifontein, on the
outskirts of Cape -Town, now
has its own vigilante force.

Certain townships will become
no-go areas during the day for all
excluding residents and security
forces. At night not even the po-

« lice will be able to patrol and will

have to depend for information on

19274

so: 3400/471

i” wipe out these safe havens.” ~~~
If the ANC is to confront the «

"’ State as an army of liberation and

have any hope of victory in the
final phase, said Dr Baynham,
“they will need the ability to
organise on conventional military

lines with security, a hierarchy,
discipline, logistical support and ‘

supply that involves incredible
planning.”
He believes the security forces

have also learned from past les-

sons and is applying them now.
“South Africa took great interest
in Rhodesia and learned what not
to do. The big lesson was not to
act too late. The security force

: response has not been on an ad

hoc basis. It is a carefully cal-

culated and sophisticated

counter-strategy.”
Counter measures which have

already been taken taken include’

a major effort on the part of the
security forces to establish what

watchers in high towers using
image intensifiers or infra-red
scopes. :

Item: Cape Town’s black
townships are no-go for whites
already and are dangerous for
blacks identified with the “sys-
tem”.

Blacks identified with the sys-
tem — such as community coun-
cillors and policemen — are tar-
gets for assassination.

Item: The community coun-
cil system has all but broken

-down and several black police-

‘men have been murdered.
Certain roads, including nation-
al freeways, will become unsafe
or be interdicted at times.
Item: The major route out of
Cape Town has provided a
hazardous drive for the past

; Several weeks. Traffic police

have at times advised motor-
ists who have to use the route
to wear crash helmets to pro-

, tect them from stoning.

Scheduled flights, trains wil]
become the target’ of bombs or
— in the case of aircraft — heat-

40

[ the population is doing and to get

, an idea of the development of the

 Politicisation.

“If the population is clearly ,

“ susceptible to overtures of

. revolutionary groups then you”
need to devise counters in terms

; Of policy. This has been done by

, dangling the carrot of reform and
this has to be balanced with dras-
tic action to prevent and contain

. Subversion, but this has failed.

, _ “The second counter is even
more drastic military action :
without abandoning reform, such *

“as the State of Emergency, ban-

‘ ning meetings and trying to pre-
vent news getting out.”

@ Future forecast: “The security .
forces are going to be stretched. .

, Time and time again they are

‘going to over-react, therefore
falling in the lap of those who are
trying to engineer-precisely that.”

seeking missiles. ~ .

Item: Even the prestige Blue
Train has been stoned in the
recent past.

White businessmen, politicians,
any officials identified with acti-
: vities of the State — such as hous-
\ ing administrators or debt collec-
‘ tors — will also have to take ex-
“traordinary measures to protect
. their lives. These could include
going to work by different routes
and times and searching their ve-

“ hicles for explosives. .

Prestige shops and restaurants

will become targets for fire-

“bombs, and clients will have to
live with body-searches.

The ANC will use other tried
“techniques aimed at creating an
j atmosphere of terror by concen-

trating, for example, on white
school children.

j Item: A Durban high school
was recently bombed.

}. These efforts will naturally be
countered as far as possible. In
the view of Dr Baynham the State
has at this stage flexed only a
fraction of its muscles. %



CITY CLOTHING EXPORTS HIT BY SENTIMENT AGAINST RSA

Cape Town WEEKEND ARGUS in English 26 Oct 85 p 1

[Article by Tom Hood]

[Text]

AMERICAN clothing im-‘
porters are taking advan-
tage of anti-South African
sentiment and forcing down
the price of garments ex-
orted from Cape Town
factories. ” :

Some export prices have be- ,
come uneconomic but the in- '
dustry should try to absorb ,
them even though domestic
business is falling, says the
chairman of the Cape Clothing |
Manufacturers Association, Mr
Simon Jocum, who has re-
turned from a seven-week
overseas visit. . 1

Export business usually took :
years to develop and hopefully *
it would become more profita-
ble again. Thy

“Exports don’t just happen
— it can take a year to two
years to get going — but to be
Successful we must enjoy the
right political climate and a «
healthier domestic market to
recover fixed overhead costs .’,

which cannot be passed on to
the highly competitive clothing
markets.

The industry was vigorously
pursuing the export markets of
the United States, Britain, and
other parts of Europe and
North America, notwithstand-
ing the fall of the rand to 40
cents. . _

/12828

CSO: 3400/438

Because of the high profile:
South Africa was enjoying on
television, boycotting move-
ments had increased their pres-
sures from government to

, business. |

The American consumer, a
fair-minded intelligent person,
was exposed to daily reports of
violence taking place in South
Africa and perceived the police ;
as trigger-happy and going °
about shooting children. .

“Importers see a risk factor
and are asking us to quote -
‘prices at below economic cost *
levels, taking away the advan-
tage of the weak rand.

Distressed, depressed

“TI tried to do my bit but I
found resistance in bringing
overseas buyers to Cape Town ,
unless I can guarantee their -
safety.”

Mr Jocum said the country’s
clothing industry was ‘dis:

-tressed and depressed”.

i

Unemployment increased by ©
700 in the Cape in the past
month after two more factories
closed down.

It was beginning to stabilise
but the widespread unrest and
the slow pace of reform did not
lend confidence to. the
Situation. .."* a

The number of employees
stood at 54700 compared with
61 800 at this time last year, a

‘drop of 7 100.

82

JPRS“SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

The weak rand had forced lo-
cal textile mills to increase
their prices drastically. Wool
and cotton had to be paid in

. dollars at internationally set
. prices.

Retailers were holding back
in their purchases “until the
smoke settles” and were buy-
ing from hand to mouth, which
caused chaos in planning for-
ward for the future.

. They. were waiting to see
| what happenened at Christmas
\ before piecing their orders for
\
t

the first half of 1986.
* “What is further disturbing is
that unrest at schools has a
worrying effect on the work-
force. Parents worry about the
activities of their children un-
' attended at home as they are
not able to go to school be-
| cause of the unrest. How can
‘ people be expected to shop in
+ certain areas amid the unrest ?
This affects the entire work
situation.”

Buying power

The falling rand was not
even helping the situation but
the increased inflation rate
was eating into the consumer's
buying power. ~

The only way the clothing in-
dustry could grow was when
unemployment was reduced,

* and more jobs were created. <4



‘their revolutionary leadership to do away with the ugly legacies,
of the feudal past, the imperialists seek to derail our victorious’
march to a just'social order and thus once again place this country
and her people under their sphere of domination. But this the pres-
ent generation of Revolutionary Etliopia shall never allow to hap-
pen.And it is this very fact that the forces of world imperialism
and their cohorts should recognize, .Hands off Ethiopia !_ |

/13104
cso: 3400/499



Plans Underway To Set Up Government-in-Exile in Dakar or Paris
(SOWETAN, 12 Nov 85) ..cceceececceececncececeeeees eeeee

Soweto Death Toll Rises
(Sy Makaringe; SOWETAN, 15 Nov 85) ..seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Number of Banned People Rises
(Themba Molefe; SOWETAN, 15 Nov 85) .........- bee eeneeee

New Colored Township Draws Strong Protests
(Shirley Woodgate; THE STAR, 14 Nov 85) ......eseeeee wee

Political Scientist Analyzes ANC Strategy for Revolution
(John MacLennan; THE SUNDAY STAR, 10 Nov 85) .......... .

Political Graffiti Flourishing in Cape Town, Soweto
(Chris Whitfield, John Qwelane; THE SUNDAY STAR, 10 Nov 85)

Presbyterian Church Criticizes Curbs on Press Coverage
(THE CITIZEN, 15 Nov 85)

Eyewitness Account of Violence at One Cape School
(THE WEEKLY MAIL, 15-21 Nov 85)

Insurance Industry Pays Out R45 Million in Riot Claims
(Derek Tommey; ARGUS, 26 Oct 85) ......-- ..

Independent Churches Viewed as 'Silent' for Too Long
(THE STAR, 8 Nov 85) ......

Academics Say Churches Uncertain About Political Role

(THE STAR, 8 Nov 85) ..seeeeeee cece eeees tence eee eeee
Mubaza-ANC Talks Threat Seen Mocking Homelands Policy

(David Breier; THE SUNDAY STAR, 10 Nov 85) .

Black Subsistence Level Forecast
(BUSINESS DAY, 29 Oct 85) ..

Row Over ‘Propaganda’ in Afrikaans Exam Paper
(THE CITIZEN, 14 Nov 85) ......5-

Afrikaans Exam Earns Approval of Teachers
(THE CITIZEN, 15 Nov 85) .....--

New College To Open Doors
(THE CITIZEN, 14 Nov 85) .....

Commentary Views Angolans ‘Animosity’ Toward Cubans
(Johannesburg International Service, 14 Nov 85) ....eeee

34

35

36

38

39

41

42

43

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53



‘Mrs Mandela has

been brought to court ©

several times for break-
ing her banning order.

© The only journalist '
still banned is Mathata
Tsedu, of The SOWE- :
TAN, whose’ first ban-
ning order was imposed
on January 9, 1981. j
Tsedu (33) cannot prac- }
tise as a writer because
of the restrictions.

Tsedu is under house
arrest from dusk to
dawn during the week
and on public holidays ;
and weekends is con- ’
fined to his Seshego
house, near Pietersburg,
for 24 hours a day.

Tsedu has three chil-
dren and his “groun-
ding” has “put an emo-
tional strain” on his tea- °,
cher wife, Flora. :

In 1982 Tsedu was de- {
tained for 300 days un- !
der Section 29 of the In-
ternal Security Act.

He started working
for the defunct Post
newspaper in 1978 and *
was secretary ofthe ;
Northern Transvaal re-
gion of the Media Work-
ers’ Association of
South Africa and served
‘on its Standing Consti-

. tutional Committee.

Tsedu’s second three-
year banning order ex-
pires in June next year.
© Mordecai Tatsa is the
only banned person liv-
ing on the Reef. Until

19274
cso: 3400/469

late October last year he TM

shared‘ the dubious ho-

“nour with the current
general secretary of the
South African Council
of Churches, Dr Beyers
Naudé.

Everyday is the same ©

' for Mordecai, the Or-
\.lando East, Soweto

young man who speaks, *
: but may not be heard if
{ public. Nothing he |

writes may be Pubs
lished.

Isolation

He cannot tell of the
fits of depression he suf-
® fered when he was de-
tained at Modderbee

4

Prison, or of his continu- ;
ing isolation from -so-

ciety, or of the way his
education has suffered.
Mr Tatsa also holds

another dubious record”

of being detained the

longest in the history of:

detention without trial:
here. He spent some
time in a-psychiatric:

; Ward after his release,
He was detained

shortly before Christmas :

in 1979 and hetd under

; Section 6 of the old Ter-'

rorism Act. Mr Tatsa
was banned on August
(8 1983' and’his order ex-
i" pires/on August 315;
1986.4
* @ Another Soweto resi-
dent who is banned is
Mr Abel Dube of Mo-
 folo, who has been ban-

37

“ished to Messina in the

Northern Transvaal.

Mr Dube (33) was
banned. in 1984 and his-
order expires on Oc-
tober 10, 1987.

His twin sister, Ntom-
bikayise, said she last
saw him in 1976 when
Mr Dube, aged 18, left
the country. She later
learned he had been de-
tained and held at the
old Johannesburg Fort.

After his release last
year in October after 30
months in detention,
Dube was banished.

His mother, Mrs Elsie
Dube, is the sole bread-
winner in the family and
earnsabout R90a
month as a domestic in
the white suburbs.

Mr Dube’s elder
brother, Matthews,
married with two chil-
dren, is unemployed.
Ntombikayise was
forced to leave her job
when she gave birth
three months ago.

Two of those still
banned are in Port Eli-
zabeth, and one is in
Athlone and the other in
Wynberg in the Cape.
© One. of the Jongest-
banned people, Mr

Rowley Israel Aren-
stein; from Durban, has
lived in the twilight for
more than 20 years. His
current banning expires
on June 30, 1988.



ANNUAL COAL EXPORTS COULD TOP SIXTY MILLION TONS

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 7 Nov 85 p 25

{Article by Madden Cole]

[Text]

OVERSEAS _ percep-
tions of stability in the
country, labour re-
lations and trade union

activity at the collieries _

and a potentially over-
supplied international
coal market will be the
deciding factors in in-
creasing South African
coal export capacity,
says Dr Dirk Neethl-
ing, chief director,
Energy, of the Depart-
ment of Mineral and
Energy Affairs.

Dr Neethling who was
speaking yesterday at the
Capex in Energy Confer-
ence in Johannesburg or-
ganised by Engineering
Week and the Techno-
Economic Society of
South Africa said how-
ever that the anticipated
export demand by 1990
will be some 55-60 million
tons a year.

“To meet this demand
15 to 20 million tons of
additional coal produc-
tion capacity for export
will have to be created.”

Dr Neethling does not
foresee any apparen
fra-structural constraints
once the doubling of the |
rail line from the coal- i
fields to Richards Bay has ;
been completed in 1987+
and provided that agree-,
ment within the private
sector for the expansion

68

of terminal facilities at
Richards Bay and Durban
is reached timeously.
Capital expenditure on
nuclear energy forms an
inherent part of Escom’s
electricity expansion pro-

gramme but no formal de-
cision has been taken on
the building of the next
nuclear power station, he
said.

“However sufficient
time of about two to three
years still appears to be
available to plan timeous-
ly for the erection of the
next nuclear plant.”

The production and ex-
port of uranium oxide is
seen by Dr Neethling as
continuing mainly as a co-
product of gold mining
output.

“No new mines produc-
ing uranium as a primary

| product are foreseen until

the presently heavily de-
pressed export market

- shows definite signs of

turning around.”
Referring to the gas re-
serves discovered _ off-
shore from Mossel Bay,
Dr Necthling points out
that the development of
natural gas for the pro-
duction of synfuels and
chemicals as well as for
producing electricity,
should be considered.

JPRS=SSA+85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



HOUSEHOLD SUBSISTENCE LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY

Johannesburg THE-STAR in English 5 Nov 85 p 5

[Text]

‘The general household subsistence level for a black
family of six rose from R130 a month in April 1976 to
more than R300 a month this September for the five
major centres, a university survey has found.

‘And the Port Elizabeth University’s Institute for
Planning and Research survey predicts that the aver-
age subsistence level for a black household in Cape
Town, Port Elizabeth, Johannesburg, Pretoria and
Durban will rise to R453 a month by October 1988 —

_ provided the inflation rate remains constant.

The institute updates its household subsistence
level survey of black, coloured and Indian families
every six months.

The latest survey was done in September. It was
found that following the previous six months of hefty
increases in the cost of living, the last six months
showed relatively few increases despite an increase
in the consumer price index of 5,7 percent.

‘The survey found the price of items exempted from

. general sales tax was low and for some items such as

meat, fish, milk powder and vegetables, prices were

, generally Jower than in the previous six months.

LOWER INFLATION

“Viewed during the past year’ the cost of living for ;
black families rose on average by 11 percent and for

coloured families by 12 percent, which is lower than

the inflation rate of 16,4 percent for urban centres :

and 14 percent for lower income groups.
Jn the third quarter of this year Johannesburg was
the most expensive centre for black families, with a

, monthly subsistence level of R365, followed by the .

Vaal Triangle (R363) and Pretoria (R358).
Benoni (R313 a month), Pietermaritzburg (R318)
and East London (R321) were the cheapest places for

‘a black family to live. Durban (R339), Cape Town

(R332) and Port Elizabeth (R332) were in the middle.
There is a noticeable variation in the cost of living
for black families living on the East and West Rand.
In Krugersdorp the household subsistence level is
R348 a month, while in Boksburg it is R326, Brakpan
R344, Germiston R340 and Springs R330.

77

JIPRS-SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



Listi®G
JPRS-SSA-85-123

16 December 1985

Sub-Saharan Africa Report

19980727 24¢

FBIS| FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE

REPRODUCED BY ey
NATIONAL TECHNICAL |
INFORMATION SERVICE !

US. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
TS SPRIRCED, VAC 2061



/13104
cs0:

3400/481

threatened deficit before borrowing of
about R5bn in the 1986/87 Budget, gov-
ernment cannot afford tax concessions.
At this stage the deficit before borrowing
at the end of the financial year could be
closer to R3,5bn than to the Budget esti-
mate of R2,970bn. .

But if, as Du Plessis has indicated,
there are to be tax cuts in the new finan-
cial year, this could rise above R5bn. So
large an amount would place tremen-
dous pressure on the capital market,
forcing up interest rates.

103



BHEKIMPI MAKES FIRM STAND AGAINST SANCTIONS

Mbabane THE TIMES OF SWAZILAND in English 29 Oct 85 pp 1, 16

(Article: "Bhekimpi Faces up with Thatcher]

[iext] PRIME Minister,
Prince Bhekimpi,
has held high level
talks with British
Prime Minister
Margaret’ Thatcher
and: King’ 'Moshoe-
shoe II of Lesotho
separately in the
Bahamas where he
is attending the
Commonwealth
summit.

It is understood that in
both meetings the sanc-
tions issue against South
Africa was “dominant
with Swaziland making a
firm stand against sanc-
tions,

Prince Bhekimpi and
Mrs. Tha discussed
the possibilities which
may be adopted by the
conference towards
South Africa,

Prince Bhekimpi and
Mrs. Thatcher exchang-
ed views, that of not sup-
porting sanctions against
South Africa.

‘They agreed that in-
stead of sanctions a
dialogue should be
started.

Prince Bhekimpi also
held another private au-
dience with King
Moshoeshoe in which
matters of mutual con-
cern were discussed,

During the audience,
Prince Bhekimpi and

712851
cso: 3h00/k27

126

King Moshoeshoe,
is Major issues
which were descr
“very confiden
Telated to the proposed
declaration by Com-
monwealth heads of
government.

The international
media covering the con-
ference was briefed that
Botswana and Lesotho
have joined the Com-
monwealth countries to
impose sanctions against
South Africa.

Prince Bhekimpi has
privately indicated that
Swaziland will not sup-
port the sanctions,
despite the call by Com.
monwealth countries to
impose sanctions, with
the exception of Britain.
‘The Prime Minister is in
the waiting list to ad-
dress the Com-
monwealth heads of
government about the
Position of Swaziland on
the political deve-
Jopments towards South
Africa,

After the Com-
monwealth meeting.
Prince Bhekimpi a
part of his delegation wi
Bo to New York to
tend the 40th anniver-
sary of the United Na-

tions. The Prime
Mi will also visit
Washington D.C.

'

JPRS+SSA~85~123
16 December 1985

SWAZILAND



Rawlings Calls for Democratization of Chief Selection
(C. S. Buabeng, Breda Atta-Quayson; PEOPLE'S DAILY
GRAPHIC, 1 Nov 85) ........008. see eeeeeeene eee

Increased Timber Exports, Decreased Profits Bring Probe Calls
(TALKING DRUMS, 11 Nov 85) ..........- Pome e reese eeneeene

Trades Union Congress Calls for Socialist Development
(R. Harry Reynolds, Hans Adjato; GHANAIAN TIMES, 29 Oct 85)

ANC Cultural Secretary Masekela Arrives

(PEOPLE'S DAILY GRAPHIC, 5 Nov 85) .....seeeeeeeeee eeeee
Kusasi Behavior in Clashes Exonerated
(Bawku-Naba; PEOPLE'S DAILY GRAPHIC, 30 Oct 85) ........
MADAGASCAR
Briefs
French Financing
Port Contract
Joint Monetary Regulations With Mauritius
Training Ship Cruise
MALAWI

Alcohol-Based Fuel Said Possible in 7~10 Years
(Grover Mzumara; DAILY TIMES, 10 Oct 85) ....ceeeeeeeees

MAURITIUS

Duval Speaks Out Against Pretoria
(THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER, 2 Nov 85) .......... ve eeee

Sugar Good, Textiles Better
(THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER, 2 Nov 85) ..cccssseeeseees

Briefs
RSA Trade 'Won Over"
Incentives to Foreign Investors
Malaysian Visit

MOZAMBIQUE

Briefs
Italian Cranes at Maputo Port
French Win Order for Barge Construction
Swedish Power
New Air Link With Lesotho

SOUTH AFRICA

Professor Urges Voices of Reason To Prevail
(Willie Esterhuyse; SUNDAY TIMES, 10 Nov 85) ........44.

-b-

17

18

19

20

21

26

27

31



+123
JPRS+SSA-85~12
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

RETAILERS PREDICT RAMPANT INFLATION
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 13 Nov 85 p5
[Article by Stephen Cranston]

[Text]

LEADING retailers are pessimistic about inflation,
ove weit es Checkers says he cannot see price
rises of less than 20% over the next year.

“The rise in fuel costs, the Escom hikes and the amount of inflation may be necessary to curb uném-
increased cost of imported raw materials are all ployment. .
going to take their toll,” Weil says, ugh calculations, using the components of the
~ “There should be a clear signal from government Consumer price index, indicate that the CPI is likely
that curbing inflation is a high priority. On the other to be at least 18% higher this time next year. Any

0 further unfavourable movements in exchange rates

hand, there has to be a certain amount of stimulation
v could make the situation worse. For example, while
the meaner. ra ogment, ts causing much of the rand has remained relatively stable against the
Stanley Fleischmann of Dion stores says prospects dollar in the past two weeks, it has weakened signifi-
are even dimmer in the durable sector. cantly against the Japanese ven
For some products, such as VCRs, there have been A considerable number of items will increase by
monthly rises. of 10-15% and sometimes two increases much more than 18%, but the CPI rise will be kept in
in one month. In the past three months, the price of check by relatively small price increases expected for
VCRs has risen from R499 to R000, he Says. reat), ra and vegetables (10%), tobacco (10%)
However, Fleischmann says, cw ig the country’s aetpere are lsat t
H ly to be increases of more than 30% in
social problems will be expensive and a certain the cost of motor vehicles, fuel, appliances and possi-
bly in imported wines and spirits.
mestic wine and spirit prices are unlikely to
show an increase of much more than 10%.
Some imported furniture could go up by 50%.
Medical schemes are likely to g0 up by 24% soon
and the price of coffee is set to rise by between 18%
ant .

EXPECTED PRICE INCREASES
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
MEAT = TOBACCO CLOTHING + MOTOR
VEHICLES

*

HOUSING
FRUIT & VEGETABLES,

The increasing cost of textiles is bound to work its
- way through to clothing, and prices should increase by
* about 17%.

Sapa reports that at least 3 000 basic food lines are

’. expected to increase in price before Christmas, after

the announcement of an increase in the price of
petrol.

Martin Rosen, general Manager of Pick ’n Pay
hypermarket in Durban North, says suppliers will not
absorb the increase.

“The latest rise in the price of petrol is bound to
push up hundreds of food lines,” he says,

“Already Suppliers are talking about increasin,
fies and by Christmas I expect at least 98% of foo
items on the shelves to increase between 5% and 10%,”

35%

24% 30% 30% F ' | 50%

(MEDICAL FUEL COFFEE IMPORTED
APPLIANCES FURNITURE

/13104
CSO: 3400/481

104



the United States (the USS Hector) brought emergency aid for the victims of
cyclone Kamisy to Antsiranana and Nossi Be. The Jeanne d'Arc itself will
also have been preceded by three ships of the Indian navy, INS Brahaputra,
INS Beas and INS Betwa, at the beginning of September, and the French
warship Victor Schloecher in early October when France handed over a land-
ing ship, the Aina Vao Vao, to Madagascar. More U.S. warships can also be
expected to visit Antsiranana soon. [Text] [Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWS-
LETTER in English 4 Nov 85 p 4] /9274

cso: 3400/478

25



JPRS+SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

HELICOPTER DEAL WITH FRANCE
Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 9 Nov 85 p 2

[Text]

The French right-wing newspaper Le Quotidien de Paris reported on
November 5 that France's Aérospatiale company had sent five engineers to
South Africa at the beginning of September with a mission to help set up
a_combat helicopter manufacturing industry. Aérospatiale, a company
closely controlled by the French state, had supplied several types of
aircraft, including the Puma SA 330 helicopter, to South Africa before
an arms embargo was introduced by the then president of France, Valéry
GISCARD D'ESTAING.

According to the Quotidien de Paris, an engineer was sent to South
Africa at that time to help in the maintenance of these aircraft, and
alternative supply routes were set up to ensure that spare parts cont-
inued to be provided. Those routes passed through third countries like
israel and even Algeria.

After 1981, and despite the arrival of the Socialist government in
power, Aérospatiale reportedly continued its collaboration with the South
Africans, supplying them for example with the means to give their Pumas a
performance similar to those of the SA 332, the Super Puma, such as more
powerful engines, new gear boxes, and new rotor heads and blades.

This new development, with the despatch of the five engineers, would
mean no less than a transfer of technology enabling South Africa to have
its own helicopter industry. The South African authorities reportedly
began negotiations on this subject with Aérospatiale after the United
States refused to supply them with Black Hawk helicopters. The Quotidien
said a licence deal for the equivalent of 50,000 man-hours was concluded
by Jean-Claude PASCALUCCI, who has already handled similar contracts witt
Romania, Yugoslavia, China, Egypt, Singapore and Brazil. The master-minds
of the programme were said to be Joseph ROSTAING, one of the developers
of the Alouette III, Dauphin and Rally helicopters, Jean GRANCOING, head
of the helicopter support personnel section, and Jacques ANDRES, former
head of the SA 332 design office.

19274
CSO: 3400/476

84



JPRS“SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

CONTRIBUTIONS TO MEDICAL AID TO INCREASE
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 4 Nov
[Article by Stephen Cranston]

[Text]
CONTRIBUTIONS to medical aid
schemes are expected to increase by
24% next year as medical costs soar.
Contributions this year have already
increased by an average of 22%.

Employees usually bay half the medi-
cal aid contribution, with the employer
picking up the other half. Self-employed
people will bear the full brunt of the
increases,

Medical schemes report that the aver-
age value of each claim has increased
steeply — between 1983 and 1984 there
was a 19% increase in ordinary claims
and a 25% hike in specialist claims,

People are also making greater use of
their medical schemes.

Use of the schemes increased by 3%
this year.

To cater for the increased costs pa-
tients face, medical schemes will in-
crease doctor’s tariffs — the amount
paid on a claim regardless of the doc-
tor’s charge — by an average of 12,5%.

The tariff for a consultation will rise
by 43% from R9,50 to 13,60.

Many doctors already charge more
than this for a visit. .

Blacks will be hit harder by the higher
contribution charges. Their consulta-
tions with general practitioners account
for 25% of their claims on medical

/12828
CSO: 3400/438

79

85 p 3

schemes. Visits to GPs make up only 8%
of whites’ claims.

Medical scheme administrators claim
that it is not only the medical profession
that is pushing up costs.

Whites are the most pampered people
in the world when it comes to medical
attention, says John Ernstzen, chairman
of the Representative Association of
Medical Aid Schemes (Rams).

“They seem to think that every dis-
comfort must have a pill to cure it. So
there are a huge number of unnecessary
sedatives, tranquillisers and analgesics
that these schemes have to pay for.

“The message I would like to drive
home is that doctors and patients must
be realistic if the schemes are going to
be cost-efficient.”

Imported medicines are also contrib-
uting to rising costs.

SA produces few medicines and im- °
ports a great deal of technical equip-
ment. :

Medicines accounted for 23% of
schemes’ payouts last year, but this
figure is creeping up. Schemes which .

. Previously allowed R25 on the average

medicine bill recently increased this to «



SUGAR FACTORY PRODUCTION FIGURES GIVEN

JPRS=SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 1 Nov 85 pp l, 4

[Article by Makonnen Haile]

[Text]

‘The three factories at Wonji, Shoa
and Metahara are expected to turn
out 1.85 million quintals of sugar, in
keeping with the target set for the
1985-86 production year, the Public
Relations Office of the Ethiopian Sugar
Corporation disclosed here yesterday.

The combined output of the three
plants in 1984-85 was slightly more
than 1.8 million quintals, with more
than 1 million quintals accounting for
the share of the Metahara Sugar Fac-
tory. Wonji and Shoa jointly produc-
ed around 737,000 quintals.

The Public Relations Office said the
Wonji and Shoa factories have a com-
bined crushing capacity of 3,070 tons
of cane per day, thus bringing the an-
nual total to 700,000 tons. The two
plants also produce.319 tons of sugar
per day. The Metahara plant has a
crushing capacity of . 5.000 tons of
cane per day, which could possibly be
raised to 6,000 tons in future.

Wonji was the first factory that
went into operation in 1953-54 and
its annual output then was 26,614
quintals of sugar. The number of wor-
kers at the time was 2,625. Today
the Wonji Sweet Factory. “produces
2,400 tons per year. wee

According to the Public Relations
Office, there are plans for expanding
the Shon Sugar Factory in order to
cope with the country’s growing con-
sumption of sugar, which now stands
at an average of 7.5 per cent per an-
num. The expansion programme is be-
ing undertaken as part of the ‘coun-
try’s Ten-year Perspective Plan. The
factory has a crushing ‘capacity of
1,650 tons of cane per day.

Under the planned expansion sche-
me of the Shoa Sugar Factory. already
6,000 hectares have been set aside,
out of which 4,600 hectares will be
used for the cultivation of sugar cane.
The expansion work is expected to
start in 1978 E.C. and will continue
up to 1981 E.C. The project is esti-
mated to cost around 270 million birr,
a large portion of which will go to
finance the expansion of the milling

‘capacity of the factory and the culti-

vation of sugar cane.

At the beginning of 1982 E.C. the
Shoa Sugar Factory will have a 60
per cent initial increase in output. In
1984 E.C. when the plant starts opera-

; ting at full capacity it will be able to

produce 620,000 quintals of sugar and



BLACK SUBSISTENCE LEVEL FORECAST

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 29 Oct 85 p 4

[Text] “Hm average household subsi- :

“dence level (HSL) for a black
» families in five main urban
- centres is expected to reach
R453,23 a month by 1988.
A survey, conducted by .the
Institute of Planning Research
of the University of Port Eliza- ;
‘ beth has shown that this figure ;
. will be reached in Johannes-
burg, Pretoria, Cape Town, :
‘Durban and Port Elizabeth by :
October 1988 — provided the»
rate of inflation continues near
_the current trend. .
The survey said the overall ;
ntage HSL increase for ,
lack households for the six
months ended September in.
the five areas was a low 2,9%.
For the previous six months, }
ending March the increase was’!
: _ For coloured households an
even lower cost trend was ob-
served compared to the pre-
vious term. For the same five
urban areas, the average in-
crease was a low ‘16% com-
pared trth a high 10 for the :
; period ending March.
“The general low increase

» for both population groups dur-.
ing the past six months is sur-
prising considering the con-
; Sumer price increase of 5,7%
: for the lower income groups
«for the same period.”

/12828

CSO: 3400/438

"The survey said the general
: low increase might be partly
{ due to the fact that a series of
yprice hikes which came into
effect on April 1 (fuel, trans-
2 port, sugar. GST).was. included

‘in the survey for March. ,

: _ “However, it was found in all
centres that generally speak-
ing the increase of items:

s exempted from general sales
tax was low. For some items,
‘such as meat, fish, milk pow-
:der- and vegetables, prices
; were generally even lower.
These ii
Tutors to the total cost of the
- food basket,” the survey said.
' Viewed over a 12-month
{period, the survey said the in-
verease for blacks was a low
11% and 11,9% for coloureds,
which was substantially lower
‘than the consumer price index
of 16,4% for the urban centres
.(all items, all groups) and
:13,9% for the lower-income
;groups. — Sapa,

49

8 are major contrib-.

JPRS*SSA+85«123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



ANALYSIS OF RAND'S DECLINE OFFERED

JPRS*SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 85 p 8

[Article by David de Kock:

[Text]

I BELIEVE that abbatoirs have a
ram which leads the nervous sheep to
the slaughter. This ram — which
never falls under the butcher’s knife
— is known as the Judas ram.

One can draw an analogy with the
rand. It is being blamed for all our
country’s ills. Companies and even
the man-in-the-street are being led to
the Slaughter. Petrol prices, food
prices and even insurance policy pre-
miums are going up because of the
fallen rand.

But is this correct? Is the rand real-
ly the cause or is it merely a symptom
of deeper ills? The diagram sketches
the events and situations which have
Ted to the fallen rand.

Clearly our analysis must begin
with the supply/demand situation.

The rand has fallen because fewer -
“people are prepared to hold the cur-

rency — thus we have had more sell-
ers and less buyers of rand.
- On the sellers’ side we have repay-
ments of foreign credits which fell
outside the standstill net. This arose
out of a lack of planning and inad-
equate supervision of the maturity
ladder of foreign credits.
If some central controi had been in
lace we would not have had a bunch-
ing of maturities. If adequate banking
had prevailed we would not have been
borrowing so short to lend so long.
Furthermore, if we had not had the
state of émergency, Rubicon and the

“The Judas Rand" ]

credit standstill we may probably not
have had to meet these repayments —
ie. the credits would have been
rolled. .

We also have on the sellers’ side the
advancing of import payments
through shortened foreign credit

riods and foreign disinvestment,
Both direct and indirect through
transfer pricing. :

This, together with fewer buyers of
rand resulting from lagged receipts of

“export earnings, and demotivated

overseas buying interest and the in-
troduction of the financial rand
(which implies that new investment in
SA is via share arbitrage rather than
foreign currency) has resulted from
waning confidence in SA.

Deflating

Why has confidence in SA waned?
To some extent because of recession-
ary economic conditions but primari-
ly because of concerns and uncertain-
ties created by the state of emergen-
wy the deflating Rubicon speech and
the loan credit standstill. And these
are symptomatic of the lack of a clear
political future for SA.

And there we have it — the nub of
the problem and the real Judas ram is
that we have no definition of our poli-
tical future. Nobody tells us anything

91

SOUTH AFRICA



ETC TO OPEN NEW GOLD DEPOSITS IN PRINCETON

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 8 Nov 85 p 20

[Text]

/12828
CSO:

EASTERN Transvaal
Consolidated Mines is to
spend R26-million to
open up and mine new
gold deposits it has
proved in the Princeton
area.

The new orebodies —
known as the Princess
orebodies — are located
about four kilometres
south of the company's
Agnes mine. Following
earlier drilling, an econ-

omic assessment shows’

that the area has the po-
tential to provide ap-
proximately 1,5 million
tons for milling at an av-
erage recovery grade of
about 5,5 g/t. ‘This is sig-
nificantly higher than the
average yield of 2,8 g/t
achieved by the Agnes
mine in the last financial
year.

3400/438

It is expected that the
new area will initially pro-
vide about 7 000 tons of
ore monthly for milling in
the Agnes plant. The
total cost will include a
3900-metre access adit
from existing Agnes
mine-workings and the
necessary surface facili-
ties to cater for the higher
sulphur content of the
ore.

Treating the Princeton
ore in the existing Agnes
plant, will materially
assist Agnes to make opti-
mum use of its mining,
milling and treatment op-
erations.

Work on the new pro-
ject will commence within
the next three months and

‘is expected to be com-

pleted in 1989. The capi-
tal expenditure will be
funded from the com-
Ppany’s own resources.

70

JPRS*SSA+85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS~SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

PROFESSOR URGES VOICES OF REASON TO PREVAIL
Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES in English 10 Nov 85 p 29
[Commentary by Willie Esterhuyse]

[Text]

COUPLE of months

ago I got hold of a
speech made by Pro-
fessor D D T Jabavu.

The title struck me like a thun- '

derbolt: “Native unrest — its
cause and cure”. The date left me

speechless: July 1920 — 65 years :

ago.

Having read the speech, I had to ask
myself; has anything really changed
since 1920? Why is it that Jabavu’s
speech is still relevant in 1985? And hav-
ing ignored the warnings given by Ja-
bavu in 1920, could we have expected
anything other than the current turmoil,
resembling in some instances a low in-

tensity civil war in which children con- ,

front casspirs?

Jabayu began his speech before the
Natal Missionary Conference with the
chilling remark: “The Bantu people
through the Union of SA are in a state of
positive discontent.”

And he stated prophetically: “Unless
something is done at once to mitigate the
causes of present dissatisfaction it will
not be very long before the whole white
community must deal with a situation
overwhelmingly beyorid their control.”

In support of his thesis, Jabavu listed

reasons for black discontent, all still .

relevant in 1985.

@ The economic pinch, aggravated for :

blacks by extremely low wages; -

@ Black perceptions that the Union
Act of 1910 unites only whites “and that
is against blacks”. This perception was
strengthened by such things as the
Native Land Act of 1913 and the

31

system of pass laws, the latter

being regarded by blacks as “per-
etuated martial law in peace- .
ime” and a mechanism for re-

pression and humiliation;

, @ Discriminatory measures

and actions;

@ Loss of faith in the Depart-
ment of Justice;

@ Squalid housing conditions;

@ Poor education; .

@ Insecurity of land tenure and
exclusion from the right to own
property in urban areas;

@ The role of agitators; and

@ The influence of ideologies
such as Bolshevism and Socialism
on educated blacks.

Jabavu’s perceptive analysis of
black discontent as early as 1920
makes one point very clear:

One can link currrent turmoil to
many causes, ranging from the
state of our economy to the activi-
ties of agitators and revolutionar-
jes. In the final analysis it should *
be linked to decades of an inabil-
ity, if not unwillingness, to listen
seriously to the voice of black rea-

son.

This state of affairs constitutes
the main tragedy of the history of
white-black contact and relations.

His speech, moreover, under-
lines the frightening fact that dis-
content runs like a central nerve
through the historical experience
of blacks since Union.

0... many, many decades it has

become ingrained in their politi-
cal culture and historical con-

' sciousness, making them perceive -



JPRS-SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT OF VIOLENCE AT ONE CAPE SCHOOL

Johannesburg THE WEEKLY MAIL in English 15-21 Nov 85 p 7

[Text]

The teachers stage a protest. ;
So the policemen outside
arrest them. Pupils retaliate
by setting a classroom alight.

he soldiers outside ignore |
them. After all, this is just a
small fire ...
An eyewitness account of just
another day at a Cape school

IN the barren expanse of Cape Flats
bleakness called Mitchell's Plain,
soldiers in combat uniform, their
rifles at the ready, patrol a high
school. Pupils play games in the
grounds during the break as the men
in brown watch,

They had earlier confiscated posters
from five teachers who staged a picket
outside the main administration
building, with posters calling for the
removal of the security forces and the
release of a fellow teacher.

Minutes later two police vans
arrive, and half a dozen shotgun-
wielding policemen approach the
principal's office to the jeers of pupils
retreating to their classrooms.

The teachers are identified and
driven off in the back of the police
vans. Angry pupils start a fire in one
of the school buildings, Not a big one,
but the soldiers can see the clouds of
smoke. This time they do nothing.

From across the road, Cheryl, one
of the few remaining SRC members at ‘
the school, has been watching the
scene, Her fellow pupils have been
detained and today she stayed out of
school to avoid arrest. .

"Viva students” she cries, while
smoke pours from the building.

The scenario has played itself out in
the schoolgrounds of many of the 47
“coloured" schools under the
Department of Education and Culture

43

‘as pupils continue their boycott of

_ exams in the Western Cape.

Cheryl's "warcry" has become
synonymous with the struggle of
pupils and students in their fight
against an education system they see as
yet another instrument of what they
call the "apartheid capitalist system", a
system they have publicly thanked at ,
numerous mass rallies —now banned
under the State of Emergency — for
“conscientising the masses".

The effects of the State of
Emergency, the hounding and
arbitrary detentions of pupils,
teachers and community leaders, has
Jeft the pupils' leaders scared and in
hiding.

But underneath is a deep resolve to
right the decades of wrorigs, a sense of
"liberation now, education later". Or,
as the more popular students’ chant
goes, "An injury to one is an injury to .
all".

It is this sense of injury that
disruption squads cite when they enter
schools, call pupils out of their
classrooms, tear up their exam papers

_ and smash windows.

The Western Cape, with the largest

. concentration of "coloured" people in
: the country, has been hit by mass
: disruptions of internal examinations
| since they started last week for pupils
cfrom Standards Six to Nine.
* The sight of Casspirs and buffel

armoured personnel vehicles
surrounding schools has become

, commonplace. Soldiers and policemen

stand guard inside the grounds.

Some pupils have elected to remain
at home preferring not to be
"involved". But, as so many pupils,
their parents, teachers and the whole
community Have learned, very few
people are able to remain uninvolved.



JIPRS“SSA*85~123

16 December 1985

COMMERCE OFFICIAL DISCUSSES KEY QUESTIONS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 4

[Article by Andre Van Zyl]

[Text] NEWLY ele,

ed Johannes-
burg Chamber
of Commerce
president Pat
Corbin believes
that the surviv-
al of business in
the face of eco-
nomic sanctions
is in the vital in-
terests of all the
people in SA,
is business background is

eminently suited to the present sit-
uation — he has considerable ex-
perience in international trade
and finance and an in-depth know-
ledge of sanctions gained helpin,
the Rhodesian government ant
business maintain normal trade.

Corbin, who is MD of Randoux
Finance, has served on the cham-
ber's council since 1968 and has

played an active Tole on various

‘committees,

He says he fervently believes in
the concept of organised com-
merce and industry, and the effec-
tiveness of their vital role in co-
operating with all levels of
government and promoting the
goncept of the free enterprise sys-
em.

The questions uppermost in his
mind are: where is SA going,
where is the rand going and where
is, business going? .

/13104

cso:

3400/481

He says: “Meetings have al-
“ready been held with members of
government departments and we
are pooling our information and
expertise to ensure the minimum
disruption’ to our international
trade.

“The sanctions and boycott net
is widening daily and our efforts
cannot only alleviate the difficul-
ties created, but must also solve
‘the underlying problems,”

. AS regards the foreign debt
standstill, he says: “The bulk of our
members are directly or indirect-
ly affected by the spin-off of this
Move.

“The resulting withdrawal of
suppliers’ lines of trade credit, the
low exchange rate, and the 10%
import surcharge, all having an
impact on cash flow, will take a
severe toll on importers.

“Through Assocom, we are
mecting the standstill commit-
ee.”

He adds that the establishment
of a regional level of government
; Will have a major impact on the
, SCC and other chambers.

: “Since commerce and industry
jare substantially financing this
(new development, we will have an
interest in the level of levies to be

‘imposed and the manner in which '

‘the funds are spent.”

112

SOUTH AFRICA



MABUZA~ANC TALKS THREAT SEEN MOCKING HOMELANDS POLICY

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 10 Nov 85 p 9

{Article by David Breier]

[Text]

IF Mr Enos Mabuza, Chief
Minister of South Africa’s
newest self-governing ‘state,
kaNgwane, insists on hold-
ing talks with the African
National Congress, he may
have his passport with-
drawn.

Critics of the Government
have said this makes nonsense
of the Government's homeland
policy.

The passport issue was spelt
out this week in an interview
with Mr Ron Miller, the Deputy
Minister of Foreign Affairs,
who warned of strong action
against anyone who planned to
visit Lusaka to talk to the ANC.
The Government has already
effectively prevented visits to
the ANC in Lusaka by Stellen-
bosch students and Dutch Re-
formed Church ministers. ‘

Mr Mabuza has announced
his Inyandza movement is to
hold talks with the ANC to help
create a peaceful future for

_South Africa. f

His kaNgwane homeland, in:
the Eastern Transvaal on the
Swaziland border, is the latest;
black homeland to be given
self-governing status. This
means it has a homeland gov-
ernment without taking full
Transkei-style independence. It
also means he retains his South
African passport and citizen-1
“ship.

19274
cso: 3400/470

©" Mr‘Miller said in the inter-

iew that in the case of ordi-
nary South African citizens
who aimed to visit. the ANC,
such as the Stellenbosch’ stu-
dents and the NGK ‘theologians,
the withdrawal of their pass-
ports would be a last resort if
all other means to dissuade
them failed. This would also‘
apply to. the businessmen who,
recently visited the ANC in
Lusaka. :

Mr Miller said that the case
of MPs such as Dr Frederik
van Zyl Slabbert and other
Progressive Federal Party
MPs was different.

He said MPs were account-.
able to their electorate who,
-would weigh up the political
consequences of their actions.
MPs also had the tradition of
parliamentary privilege.

Mr Miller said that while it
was legally possible to with-

;draw the MPs’ passports if:
\they went to Lusaka again, this!
would not happen in practice. i
: He said Mr Mabuza was in
another category. He hoped
there would be negotiations,
with Mr Mabuza and all poss!-
ble channels would be followed.
before any decision was taken:
to withdraw his passport. But,
if there was no alternative, this.
would be done only as a last
resort, he said. - -: i
; Mr Mabuza this week de-
‘clined to comment on Mr Mill-, $

48

JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

‘er’s statement, saying he had”
not been in contact with the’
. Government on the matter. Mr
Mabuza also declined to name
the date and venue of his pro-
posed meeting with the ANC.

Mr Tiaan van der Merwe,
the PFP spokesman on Home
Affairs, said the Government’s
threat to refuse Mr Mabuza’s
passport was a threat to its

jomeland policy.

“That an incompetent and
confused deputy Minister can
i deny such a basic facility to the

Chief Minister of kaNgwane is

a clear indication that the

Chief Minister is entirely at the
«Mercy of the Nationalist Gov-.
| ernment and that the self-gov-
erning status of his homeland
‘ has little meaning. 7

“It indicates further just how.
insincere the Government is in
its promise to negotiate South ;
Africa’s future with black lead-

vers”,

i In motivating his proposed -
{ talks with the ANC, Mr Mabuza

- expressed deep concern at the
‘current unrest and the need for ;
"a peaceful solution. :

“To this end we are prepared
to speak to any leader and any
organisation if by so doing we
may contribute towards the
.abatement of the unrest, as
well as hélp to pave the way
_for dialogue which may lead to
a peaceful future,” he said.



19274
cso:

A young boy, one of those who
would have written exams but thought
that staying out of school was safer
than going to school, was pedalling his
bicycle past a Casspir parked outside a «
school, “protecting” the handful of |
pupils writing.

He was told to get off his bicycle and .
into the Casspir because he was
“supposed to be in school".

Of approximately 8000 matric
pupils in the Cape Peninsula, 2 500
have turned out on average to write
their final examinations. They are
writing at heavily-guarded exam
centres in Goodwood, the nearby
Wingfield military base and the South:
African Cape Corps "coloured"
military base at Faure, just outside
Cape Town. ;

« The routine has been the same since |
their exams started two weeks before
those in junior classes: pupils are
collected at predetermined pick-up
points in the townships, driven to their
exam centres in buses with smashed °
windows and have their names
checked against print-out sheets
provided by the schools.

They have to have thejr exam '
numbers with them else they are not
allowed inside the grounds. ,

But at high schools where groups ot ,
Standards Six to Nine scholars have ;
been trying to write, bricks have been
hurled through windows, fire hoses
have been sprayed at pupils and
teachers, classrooms have been set
alight and in some cases pupils have
been injured. «

As far as the Minister of Education }
and Culture (House of;
Representatives), Mr Carter Ebrahim,
and his Labour Party-led department ‘
is concerned, however, examinations
must go on,

The scene has repeated itself
regularly as pupils continue in their
efforts to have their grievances heard. °

They demand that the government:

@ Postpone all examinations for

3400/472

44

high school pupils to next year; ~~

@ Lift the State of Emergency and
withdraw security forces from the
townships;

@ Recognise the SRCs and PTSAs
elected by the community during the
boycott period;

@ Reinstate teachers who have been
transferred or sacked;

@ Release all political detainees,
including pupils, teachers and
community leaders, and

@ Include alternative awareness
Programmes in ‘the school
curriculum,

Following the disastrous meeting
between Western Cape educationists
and the government on Monday, the
education crisis has grown even
deeper,

The moderate representatives — the
Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the
University of Cape Town, Dr Stuart
Saunders, the Rector of the University
of the Western Cape, Prof Richard
van der Ross, and the Rector of the
Cape Technikon, Mr Franklin Sonn
— who pleaded for the postponement
of the examinations was met with the
following comment from the. State
President, PW Botha:

"I have also told them that they have ~
an obligation to combat leftist
radicalism ‘together with the
government. Leftist radicalism is one
of the most intolerable phenomena in
the world."

Leading spokesmen have predicted
mass unemployment in the wake of the
government's public display of
intransigence. .

The 2000-strong Western Cape
Teachers Union (WECTU), whose
almost entire leadership has been
detained, has estimated that 70 percent
of those pupils are not writing exams.

It said the outcome of the meeting

‘denied the majority of potential

matriculants access to the educational
and employment locations of their
choice and would force them into the
ever-increasing ranks of the

* unemployed.



PRICE WAR, DROUGHT, DEBT WRECK TRIOMF

JPRS“SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English 3 Nov 85 p 1

[Article by Ciaran Ryan]

A VICIOUS fertiliser’
price war, the drought
and huge debt were the
main reasons for
Triomf’s attributable
loss of R21,1-million for
the 18 months to June.

Managing director Kobus
Becker says world demand
for phosphoric acid reached
an unprecedented low, and
contributed to the disastrous
performance.

Triomf reports sales of
R3614-million and a profit
before interest of R4,9-mil-
lion in the 18 months, Stag-
gering interest costs of R35-
million left a net loss after
tax of R30,5-million, of which
R9,5-million was attributable
to the minority.

Terrifying
‘Triomf’s parent, Lanchem
— 80% owned by Maizechem,
which is jointly owned by the
Louis Luyt Group and the
National Maize Producers
Organisation (Nampo) —
annnounced an attributable
Joss of R12,9-million.
At the Johanhesburg Stock
Exchange’s insistence,
‘Triomf has reconsolidated its
operating Subsidiary: so
shareholders will be able
see a proper balance sheet
for the first time in years
when the annual report
comes out, }
The interest cost disclosed

[Text]

/12828

CsO: 3400/438

here suggests terrifying
. geariny

The belated result leaves

the most important questions

about Triomf unanswered,

. What were the terms of the

deal with Nampo? Was it a

» rescue? What is Triomf's -

financial position? Does
Nampo
* loans?
Board permit the get-togeth-
‘ er with Nampo? ‘
+” What is the position of Mr
* Louis Luyt, who has left the
board, leaving his son and

Disruption

: Mr Becker says the results
‘ were released four months
: after the June yearend be-

cause of the disruption
* caused by Nampo’s acquisi-
;, tion of a share in Triomf.
<The question of there being
a change of control in Lan-
chem has been sorted out
with the Johannsburg Stock
; Exchange, allowing the share
to be relisted after suspen-
-sion in June,

Other losers

The Competition Board is
{ s@ill investigating the deal,
: but Mr Becker expects no op-
» position, provided Nampo
* gives a guarantee that it will
not sell its shares in Maize-
chem to the co-operatives
and does not put pressure on
the co-operatives to buy fer-
tiliser from Triomf.

73

guarantee Triomf .
Will the Competition ,

: daughter in the fertiliser? .

Most major fertiliser pro-

‘ducers have announced big
losses this year, Triomf has
an estimated 25% of the
South African market. Its
Richards Bay plant — ac- ©
“ quired in July 1984 — is run-
‘ning at 50% of capacity at a
cost to the company of R5-

« million in the 18 months.

« No comparative results
were published because of
the consolidation of the Rich- *
ards Bay plant in 1984.
"The company has. unse-
cured foreign loans of $69,1-
million. For the purpose of
this result, these are valued
at. an exchange rate of
US$0,50 to the rand. The
rands fall to 39 US cents
means there has been an-
other unrealised loss of R40-
“million, No provision has
been made in the results for
potential forex losses.

Optimist

Ever the optimist, Mr
Becker says good news Is on
the way for shareholders. He
says price discounting cost
Triomf about R25-million in
the 18 months, but is being
phased out.

Negotiations are under
way to export up to 100000
tons of phosphoric acid to be
refined into diammonium

hosphate for re-export to

surope.

Conclusion of the deal will
enable capacity at Richards
Bay to be increased to 75%.
‘The Potchefstroom plant is -

. running at 70% of capacity.



BLACKS MUST DECIDE ON FREE-ENTERPRISE SYSTEM

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 5 Nov 85 p 28

[Text] 1115 upto Black business
to determine whether the
free-enterprise system
will be accepted by the
Black poputation.

“This was said in Soweto

| last week by Dr Walter

Hasselkus, managing di-

rector of BMW South
Africa.

+ Speaking at the annual

banquet of the Greater’

Soweto Chamber of Com-
merce, Dr Hasselkus said
the Black business com-
munity should convin-
cingly demonstrate its
sense of social respons-
ibility.

“When Black business-
men become a force for
improving the living stan-
dards of Black South
Africans, people will be-
gin to appreciate that free
enterprise ultimtely ben-
efits all people, not just
the wealthy,” Dr Hasel-
kus said. .

“Black business should
be seen as an important
means of creating em-
ployment opportunities
for Blacks, They should
make Blacks aware of the
social benefits of free en-
terprise and they should
help people understand
the relationship between

/12828
CSO: 3400/438

productivity, ~ inflation
and economic growth.”
Dr Hasselkus said the
eradication of racism
should lead to a stage
where there would no
longer be talk of ‘White’
and ‘Black’ business and

consumers. .
He said the increasingly

powerful socio-economic
role of the Black business
community, combined
with the innovate ap-
proach of ‘most .multi-
national companies,
could ensure . substantial
economic development
and growth in South Afri-
ca.

“South Africa should
no longer rely on its gold
revenue as the impetus
for future growth. Our fu-
ture is in exports of goods
produced in South Africa
with the know-how im-
ported by multinationals.

“The multinational
companies have in addit-
ion been responsible for
enormous job creation
and for the training of
people for those jobs.
Through these efforts the
multinationals have play-
ed an important part in
uplifting the living ‘stan-
dards of the Black com-
munity, which is crucial’
for future . economic
growth.” :

83

JPRS*SSA"85°123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



NEW COLORED TOWNSHIP DRAWS STRONG PROTESTS

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 14 Nov 85 p 3

[Article by Shirley Woodgate]

[Text]

19274
cs0:

3400/471

‘A government plan to investigate ‘establishing a coloured township
in Midrand has unleashed a storm of protest there. can

‘The land being considered is a portion of Waterval farm, east of

the Jukskei River up to the AECI border (land owned by the Mid

family’s Islamic Trust) and part of, Allandale farm, west of Tembi+,

sa towards the Metro drive-in. :
Both sites are next to white residential suburbs, including Sand-

ton’s Kelvin and Buccleuch and Midrand’s President Park agri:

cultural holdings and Glen Austen extension 3. '

Mr Martin Grond, Midrand management committee chairman,
said residents heard of the possibility of a coloured township
on their doorstep through legal notices placed by the Department of
Constitutional Development and Planning in Beeld and The Citizen
on October 25.

PROPERTY FEARS

People were given until November 22 to make objections.

(As Midrand is a controlled area, it is necessary to officially
declare a special group area for coloured people.)

Mr Grond estimated that both pieces of land covered more than
500 ha.

Homeowners have protested at meetings in Sandton and Midrastd
that such a township would devalue their properties as the new
houses were likely to be sub-economic. -

Mr Grond said another problem envisaged by a packed meeting
of the Halfway House Ratepayers’ Association was a massive build-
up of traffic in the area. .

‘At a Buccleuch/Kelvin Ratepayers’ Association meeting, Sandfon
councillor Mrs Jo Marais, who represents Ward 11 (which includes
the Indian group area of Marlboro Gardens), accepted a petition to
the government asking for the abolition of the Group Areas Act.

It was suggested that setting up a new group area was unneces-
sary as the Group Areas Act was to be abolished soon anyway.

38

JPRS~SSA«85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS*SSA~85+123
16 December 1985

SWAZILAND

COUNTRY'S POLITICAL SCENARIO ANALYZED
Johannesburg THE STAR in English 4 Nov 85 p 12

[Krticle by Gerald L'Ange: "Swaziland Premier Will Wield the Real Power"7

Etext]

From having the status of a figure-
head, the position of Prime Minister
in Swaziland has suddenly become an
extremely powerful one politically.

The prime minister’s powers have
been enormously increased as a result
of the recent palace,coup in which the
group that had dominated the country
for the past few years was deposed
and ultimate control restored to the
monarchy. 4

There is some doubt, however, |
about which individual is going to ex-:
ercise the new prime ministerial
powers,

Knowledgeable sources believe the
post will be retained by the present
incumbent, Prince Bhekimpi, despite
a desire by some Swazis to see his
exiled predecessor, Prince Mabandla,
reinstated.

Prince Mabandla was dismissed
during the regime of the politicians,
Prince Mfanasibili and Dr George
Msibi, who were thrown out in the
palace coup. In his place they appoint-
ed Prince Bhekimpi.

Bhekimpi was initially regarded by
many as a stooge of the ruling clique
and when they were ousted it was wi-
dely expected that Mabandla would
be recalled from exile in Bophutha-
tswana to resume the post.

These expectations were heightened
by a recent report that a deputation
from Swaziland had visited the prince
at Mmabatho and urged him to return
to Swaziland. It was not clear whether
he was being urged to seek the pre-
mierhip or just return home.

Prince Bhekimpi, however, has
since his appointment as prime minis-
ter established a reputation for ability
and integrity that makes many

124

Swazis want him to keep the post, ac-
cording to knowledgeable sources.

A recently gazetted change in the
political structure is considered by
knowledgeable observers here to have
vastly increased the powers of the
prime minister and to some extent
decreased the influence of the tribal
elders,

The Governnment Gazette notice
clipped the wings of the Liqogo, the
body around which revolved the
power struggle that followed the
death of King Sobhuza in 1982. Initial-
ly set up purely to advise the mon-
arch, the Liqogo was allegedly ‘given
executive powers by Prince Mfanasi-
bili and Dr Msibi that made it a su-
premely powerful political tool. .

In terms of the gazette notice the
Liqogo has been deprived of its status
as the “supreme council of state” and
reduced to advisory status. :

It has been deprived of the author-.
ity to appoint the deputy head of
state. That authority now rests only
with the head of state (at present
Queen Regent Ntombi pending the en-:
thronement of Crown Prince Makho-
setive),

Observers in Mbabane believe the
new arrangement creates a relation-
Ship between the head of state and the
prime minister not unlike that be-
tween the British monarch and pre-
mier. A difference is that the Swazi-
land head of state has the power to
overrule the prime minister. This is
considered unlikely to happen, how-
ever.

With the downgrading of the Liqogo
there has been an apparent upgrading
of the cabinet. The Queen Regent (and
later theyKing) will now rule directly



WEST GERMANY REMAINS NATION'S CLOSEST PARTNER

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 85 p 8

[Article by Alan Peat]

[Text]

WEST GERMANY, with the exce
ton of its embargo on military goo
is now the only major Western coun-

try with no form of official sanctions «

or disinvestment policy against South
Africa.

Britain, under the restrictions of
the Commonwealth Accord, has now
joined the growing number of coun-
tries with some form of government-
backed restriction on SA trade.

The official policy of the present
German Federal coalition govern-
ment under Chancellor Helmut Kohl
is enforced by legislation. Govern-
ment has no legal power to persuade
or dissuade German companies in
thelr trading or Investment activities,

Said a German government spokes.
man: “The government is strictly
against mandatory sanctions and
would not discourage investment,
‘The stance is that sanctions would
have a tremendous effect on the black
population, who are disadvantaged
already.”

While Kohl has stressed his govern-
ment’s desire for an end to racial
discrimination in SA, he has negated
achieving thls by any form of force,
His centre-right coalition won a par-
Mamentary motion In September call-
ing for greater cultural and sportin,
links “with all SA’s racial groups”.
This effectively papered over a feud
between its three member parties on
policy towards Pretoria.

Companies have been officially re-
quired by their government to stand
by the European Economic Commu-
‘nity’s code of conduct, but the Ger-
man government has very recently

‘approved the way subsidiaries of

/13104

CSO: 3400/481

German companies have applied this
cor

le.
The German/SA economic link is
important to both countries. SA is
Germany's third largest overseas
trading partner — behind the US and
Japan — with annual bilateral trade
PA goods and services valued at about
nn,

Investment by German company
subsidiaries in SA is about R2,5bn,
according to German Chamber of
Commerce and Industry figures, with
about 65 000 workers employed direc-
tly. They support more than 500 000
people indirectly, ‘

Another social link of some impor-
tance is the estimated 400 000 people
of German descent permanently resi-
dent in SA and SWA, with an un-
counted, but large, number of tempo-
rary German contract workers.

‘he amount of German industrial
involvement is also noticeable to the
local man in the street, Everyone is
familiar with locally-made Mer-
cedes-Benz, BMW Volkswagen
cars; MAN and MB trucks; Telefun-
ken TVs; Siemens electronics, AEG
appliances; Hoechst pharmaceuti-
cals, Bosch and Gedore hardware ete.

- “But this vistble area of consumer
durables is only about 30% of the
German industrial involvement
here,” said Achim Stracke, chief
executive of the German Chamber.

“The hidden 70% is a heavy in-
volvement in construction operations
with a German shareholding. Con-
struction projects such as Richards
Bay harbour and industrial area, Sa-

108

JPRS*SSA*85"123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

GERMAN DIRECT

am INVESTMENT IN S.A.

300

250

200 u

150

100

50

) B Geeta vin
1979 80 81 62 63 84
Sowce;GERMAN DEPT OF ECONOMICS

sol, Escom and the like could not have
been done without German-company
involvement in capital equipment
and skills. There are also the major
road-builders like Concor.

“Our industry has firmly decided to
stay here, to do more to enhance what
they have done so far, and to keep or
increase their market shares.

“There is some shrinkage in the

, direct-investment totals — the 1984

total of R168m was 34% below the
1983 high of R.254,75m, but this is due:
only to the economic state of the
country, not anything to do with gov-
ernment pressure,” :

SA Is dependent on certain sectors.
of German industry. The heavy road-:
transport industry, for example,:
woul grind to a halt if there were-
any disInvestment programme. .



JPRS*SSA-85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

BUSINESS DAY CIRCULATION GROWS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 85 p 1

[Text] BUSINESS DAYis on the move. Circu-

113104
cso:

lation shows a steady upward trend and a
major reader survey by Markinor Mar-
ket Research indicates growing accep-
tance of the newspaper as the leading
daily business voice.

As the graph shows, unaudited
national daily sales have climbed from a
low of about 23 000 in May to just under
28 000 now. i

This means that the newspaper is per-
forming extremely well within its mar-.

ket compared to established internation-~

al financial publications. For example, ‘

Business Day’s penetration of its target
market — the local business community
— is double that of the Financial Times

in the UK, which has a circulation of

190 000, about 0,34% of the UK popula-
tion.

The market research undertaken for
Business Day reveals a number of in-
teresting facts. Among these are:

O Business Day readers are top people.
All of those surveyed were found to hold
executive positions. No fewer than 61%
were chairmen, MDs, GMs, directors or
owner/partners of their businesses;

A further 22% were financial direc-
tors, company secretaries or accoun-
tants, and 15% held senior jobs in mar-
keting and sales;

OOf the sample of Johannesburg read-
ers, 80% read Business Day every day
and for more than 70% Business Day
was their only morning newspaper;

O The number of subscribers is high at
about 40% of total sales, Also, many
companies are taking advantage of the
special low group rates, with company
purchases running at about 50%;

O Most Business Day readers have con-
siderable spending authority within their
companies, For example, 4% were in-
volved in the employment of staff, 74%
in travel within SA, and 65% in the bank-
ing requirements of their businesses,

(0008)
30

BUSINESS DAY
SALES
(NATIONAL)

28

T T
wunauorred) |
INCLUDING SUBSt

RIPTIONS,

|

26

24

22

3400/481

MAY JUN JUL__AUG SEP OCT}

117



JPRS-SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

CUSA, AZACTU MERGER--The possibility of a merger has arisen between the Council
of Unions of South Africa (Cusa) and the Azanian Confederation of Trade

Unions (Azactu). Cust and Azactu Tepresentatives met at the weekend to explore
common ground. A spokesman said today a sub-committee had been established
“to examine the future of South Africa's working class." Delegates agreed

on broad principles for the union movement which included: Worker control.
Black leadership. | Acceptance of white involvement at "grassroot" level.
Independent action of the unions within a federation. Non-affiliation to

political groups. The spokesman said unions already affiliated to political
groups would not, however, be asked to end such ties. Closer co-operation
between Cusa and Azactu has been predicted by union-watchers since the two
federations left unity talks aimed at establishing a "super federation" of
all emerging unions. Their main objection was the principle of non-racialism
which is one of the cornerstones of the super federation. The federation,
which is expected to have a membership of nearly 500000, the biggest in the
history of the black labour movement, is to be launched in Durban in about
three weeks' time. [Text] [Johannesburg THE STAR in English 6 Nov 85 p 3]
/12828

MERCEDES-BENZ INVESTS--Daimler-Benz AG's supervisory board has decided to
increase the capital of its 51 percent owned unit (Mercedes-Benz of South
Africa) to R150-million from R2,5-million at the end of 1984, Daimler
sources told Reuters. A company spokesman would not comment on the report
but said an "adjustment in capital structure” had been under consideration
for some time in line with planned production investments in South Africa.
Daimler's 1984 annual report puts the subsidiary's capital at R2,5-million.
Minority shareholders in Mercedes-Benz of South Africa are an unnamed South
African bank and a Swiss foundation. Shareholding percentages in the sub-
sidiary will remain unchanged after capital is increased to R150-million,
the sources said. The supervisory board decision had been taken in spite
of objections by employee representatives on the board that the capital
increase would amount to support for the SA Government and its apartheid
policies. [Text] [Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 11 Nov 85 p 25]/12828

OLIVETTI INVESTMENT--Olivetti South Africa has underlined its commitment to
staying in this country by announcing that it is to start local manufacture
of its personal computer range in March/April next year. "We are starting
to assemble the necessary equipment at our present factory in Robertsham,
Johannesburg this month. It is a multi-million rand project and we are
going it alone--in other words no other company or group will be involved,"
Dr Paolo Tosi, MD of Olivetti South Africa said. Olivetti's typewriter
factory in Robertsham is being expanded to accommodate the computer plant.
"We plan to start production slowly, making sure the quality remains high.
At present we produce some 8000 electronic typewriters a year at Robertsham
and our initial target is 7000 PCs. We will manufacture our present range
of PCs there and we have some more models in the pipeline," he said.

While the company is looking primarily at the local market, Dr Tosi does
not exclude the possibility of exporting. [Text] [Johannesburg THE CITIZEN
in English 11 Nov 85 p 25] /12828

122



JPRS-SSA-85-123

16 December 1985

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REPORT

ConTENTS

ETHIOPIA

GHANA

President Reagan's U.N. Statements Rejected
(Editorial; THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 1 Nov 85) .......eeeeee

Blood Substitute Donated by Soviets
(THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 2 Nov 85) ..ceseeeeceeeecceeeee see

Expansion of Postal Services Noted .
(Melese Telahoun; THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 3 Nov 85) .......

Sugar Factory Production Figures Given
(Makonnen Haile;THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 1 Nov 85) .........

Agro-Industry Crop Research Promises Bumper Harvest
(THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 31 Oct 85) .....seeeeee ones seeeeee

NMS Scheme Implementation Reviewed
(THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 29 Oct 85) ......-..-0e- bene eee ees

Drought, Rehabilitation Committee Adopts Action Program
(THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, 29 Oct 85)

Briefs
Agricultural College Graduates
NMS Political Cadres Graduate.
Educational Radio
Tractors Delivered
Increased Productivity
Coffee Acreage Expansion
Bedele Office Complex
Assab-Haleb Road Project
REYA Delegation Returns

Rawlings Calls for Further Civilian Cooperation
(Breda Atta Quayson, Yaw Ohene-Manu; PEOPLE'S DAILY
GRAPHIC, 31 Oct 85) ..vececenceer cree e ce reene ee eseennenes

10

1

16



At the other end of the scale, con-
trol and instrumentation equipment
— a key element in increasing pro-
ductivity — accounted for only 7,7%,
far less than in US and Euro)
though, surprisingly, marginally
higher than in Japan.

vA striking feature of the segmenta-
tion statistics, said Morse, “is the bias
shown by SA industry towards fin-
ished equipment and system, with
components taking a back seat in
comparative terms.

“this is indicative of two major
differences which distinguish SA’s el-
ectronics industry from those of the
more developed nations — the com-

paratively low level of local manu-_

/13104

CSO:

3400/481

facture and the lower level of devel-
opment of SA’s electronic infrastruc-
ture, evidenced -by comparatively,
more being spent on expansion of the,
telecommunications network. and in-;
dustrial products.” ‘
In terms of FOB value, nearly 80%!
of SA’s electronics imports in 1984
were sourced from only four coun-,
tries: Japan (27,5%), US (26,3%), UK
(145%) and West Germany (11,3%).
Nearly half (47%) of the Japanese.
imports were in the audio and video,
equipment category, while 75% of US;
imports and 72% of UK imports con-|
sisted of EDP equipment. ‘
The SA electronics industry itself is .
concentrated with five companies ac-
counting for R1,5bn, or nearly 35% of
total industry turnover. a

101



/12828
cso:

3400/438

6

ACCOUNT

9 7

3.

“aed

3

76
1982

‘SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE
Source:STELLENBOSCH B.E.R.,

BALANCE ON CURRENT
R/ Bn %

BF aa 05 88 — 1982 8 ‘
BB ActuaLEijrorecast Biacrual E3 ERFORECAST

“INFLATION: CPI

fll

% CHANGE FROM SAME

QUARTER PREVIOUS YEAR
Source:STELLENBOSCH 8.E.R.

% - GDP% GROWTH BY SECTOR
1986 FORECAST

CONSTANT PRICES

- MINING

-24

AGRICULTURE
MANUFACTURING

ELECTRICITY & WATER

44

CONSTRUCTION

WHOLESALE & RETAIL

‘TRANSPORT
COMMUNITY SERVICES
GENERAL GOVT

‘Source:BARCLAYS BANK

61



ACADEMICS SAY CHURCHES UNCERTAIN ABOUT POLITICAL ROLE

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 8 Nov 85 p 13

[Text]

-Both the English and Afrikaans
churches have played a role in politics
in the past few decades, but on the
practical level they are either too ide-
alistic or uncertain about what their
function should be.

This is the view of two experts on
religious and biblical studies, Mr Sak-
kie Spangenberg, lecturer in biblical
studies at the Rand Afrikaans Univer-
sity and Professor Ben Engelbrecht,
professor of religious studies at the
University of the Witwatersrand,

They said the English and Afrikaans
churches each tried in their own way
to influence the Government's actions
and thinking on the policy of apartheid.

They were reacting to Dr Nico
Smith’s criticism of South African
churches earlier this week “for allow-
ing the development of a political sys-
tem which could plunge the country
into a revolution”.

Dr Smith, a minister of the Neder-
‘duitse Gereformeerde Kerk, said the
churches, including the English
churches, had belied their calling and
had failed the people of the country.

He urged all churches to start get-
ting involved and to work actively for
Political change,

Mr Spangenberg, said the history of
Afrikaans churches showed an involve-
ment in politics even before the Na-
tional Party came to power in 1948,

19274

cso: 3400/470

At a Synod meeting of the NGK in
Transvaal before 1948, there were
warnings from a minister that the
bible should not be used to justify
apartheid. This, was an indication of
early political involvement, Mr Span-
genberg said.

Over the years the Afrikaans Gere-
formeerde churches tended to try to
give apartheid a theological basis by
using the bible.

It was only in the last few years that
more leaders of the Afrikaans churches
started moving away from the idea
that apartheid was in accordance with
the bible, he said.

POLITICAL ROLE

The English churches had also
played a political role, in the sense
that they warned against the dangers
of apartheid.

“Thus, as far as history is concerned,
both Afrikaans and English churches
were politically involved. The English
churches tended to fight for the under-
dog while the Afrikaans churches tend-
ed to support the Government,” said
Mr Spangenberg.

On the churches’ current political
role, Mr Spangenberg said the Afri-
kaans churches were cautious about
their function on a practical level.

“They are taking the most laudable
decisions at their synod meetings, but

47

JPRS-SSA+85=123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

not much comes of these resolutions in
practice.”

Professor Engelbrecht, said that
when it came to practical matters, the
English churches tended to be too ide-
alistic in their search for solutions.

“A concept such as justice is very
relative. A political solution which
would méet all the divergent demands
for justice would in essence require
compromise.

“In their striving for the perfect
model of justice as preached by the
bible, the English churches tend to for-
get that the eventual solution would in-
evitably be a compromise,” the profes-
sor said.

This grey area in the churches’ prac-
tical involvement could easily lead to
friction.

Professor Engelbrecht said some
churches played a healthy. political
role by putting their case to the Gov-
ernment, while others operated as
pressure groups by trying to activate
their members in a specific political
direction.

Some English churches were playing
an unhealthy role by propagating the
theology of liberation. This could only
Jead to revolution, he said.

Professor Engelbrecht felt that the
churches’ current role should be to give
the strongest possible support to initia-
tives for “positive, peaceful reform”.



CRUISE LINES CURTAIL RSA OPERATIONS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 85 p 5

[Article by George Young]
[Text]

SOUTH Africans will not have much
opportunity for ocean travel in the
immediate future.

Only one passenger liner is sched-
uled to come on the seaboard for a
short holiday season Operation next
month. South Africans wanting a
cruise will have to fly to Join a liner :
elsewhere,

SA is considered unattractive for
liner owners committed to cruising
because of several factors. The only
reasons some vessels have come
down at have been because of the
northern winter curtailing operations
and the need to keep crews for re-
opening in March of the popular
cruise liner playgrounds — the east-
ern Mediterranean and Caribbean.

Factors against use of cruise liners
in SA waters are: !
Fares are paid in rands while the
: ship must meet its costs in dollars or
‘European currencies;

‘Q.Oil bunkers shipped in Durban have!
to be paid in dollars;

OThe number of attractive ports of-
fering facilities for Passengers is
limited. Mauritius and the Seychelles
are the only two suitable terminals,
OThe long haul to SA to undertake
the cruises, and then the return voy-
age to Europe in the off-season, sees
accommodation often less than 25%
filled. boos

The Greek vessel, Constellation;
which has been_coming down every
year, ended the arrangement when
the Johannesburg charterer realised
that the fares in rands would need to
be trebled to meet the hire charge for
the ship, usually about $R20000 a
lay.

Bookings for the Constellation have
been funnelled to the larger Italian
Uner Achille Lauro, which in recent
weeks became a household name
since its hijacking by Palestinian ter-
rorists,

But the charterers here face the
same currency problems, plus the
fact that the Achille Lauro is a sub-
stantially larger and more expensive
ship.

On the voyage from Durban to
Mauritius, the liner can expect to con-
sume 65 to 70 tons of oil a day, costing
nearly R290 000 for the round trip. To
this must be added the daily charter.
fee of the ship, paid in dollars,

No doubt the parties to the charter
did their homework assiduously and
are satisfied travellers will not be
persuaded by economic and political
Problems to cancel their Passage at:
the last moment.

The Southern Hemisphere has not
Presented a happy hunting ground for:

96

JPRS“SSA*85°123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS-SSA-85*123
16 December 1985

TALS.

KUSASI BEHAVIOR IN CLASHES EXONERATED
Accra PEOPLE S DAILY GRAPHIC in English 30 Oct 85 p 7
(Paid Advertisement by Bawku-Naba7

[RexiT Between Saturday 28th September, 1985 and Tuesday 1st October, 1985,
the few Mamprusis in Bawku in their characteristic manner attacked Kusasis
in the Bawku township with machine gunfire and set several houses ablaze.
The Kusasis were bound to defend themselves and the ensuing battle resulted
in the loss of several lives and property. The loss of life and property
in the recent fight is far out of proportion to the havoc recorded in the
July 1984 clash which is still fresh in our minds. Figures are not immed-
iately know but it is estimated that at least thirty (30) people lost their
lives with many others wounded and many houses, numbering about 194, looted
and/or destroyed.

The clash was completely uncalled for and could have been averted if the
appropriate authorities in the region were alive to their responsibilities.
This is so because weeks before the clash the signs were very clear to the
authorities that a clash between the two factions was imminent, but the
inertia or perhaps subtle encouragement of the authorities made the clash
possible.

Three weeks before the clash the Mamprusi youth (who call themselves
"Parliament House") committed many acts of aggression against Kusasi and
Busanga youngmen particularly. They also on a number of occasions stormed
the police station in their numbers and there harassed Police officers when-
ever one of their numbers was apprehended for an offence. They did all this,
sometimes wielding deadly weapons and yet managed to get away with it with-
out receiving any punishment.

On Friday 27th September, 1985, some misguided Mamprusi youth were placed
in custody by the Bawku Police. Their alleged Leader in particular was
placed in custody for allegedly illegally importing a vehicle into the coun-
try and allegedly using the same vehicle to smuggle certain items out of
the country. The others were there for acts of assault committed against
people.

21



RAWLINGS CALLS FOR DEMOCRATIZATION OF CHIEF SELECTION

Accra PEOPLE'S DAILY GRAPHIC in English 1 Nov 85 p 1

[Article by C.S. Buabeng, Breda Atta-Quayson/

Ltext]

/12851
CSO:

SERIOUS conside-
ration should be
given to democra-
tising the selection
of chiefs by king-
makers.

This will in a way
curb the numerous
chieftaincy problems
in the country,
Chairman J.J. Rawl-
ings, told a mam-
moth durbar of chiefs
and people of Brong-
Ahafo in Sunyani on
Wednesday.

He said it is regrettable
that instead of working out
effective strategies for the
economic and_ social
advancement of the region.
some people have allowed
chieftaincy disputes, per-
sonal and factional squab-
bles to impede the people's
efforts towards progress
and success.

Chairman Rawlings
stressed that the nation
has come to a point where

34.00/419

17

something drastic has to be
done to prevent this ugly
situation from impeding
‘development.

He charged chiefs. vouth*
and identifiable groups to
take effective steps to eli-
minate the factors imped-
ing progress from their
midst.

‘He urged all to be ac-
commodating in their
dealings with others so
that the region's human
and material resources are
not wasted.

Chairman Rawlings an-
nounced that the Iddrissu
Mahama Committee
which is examining pro-
blems arising from the re-
lationship between Asan-
teman and Brong-Ahafo
will very soon submit its
report and assured the
durbar that the govern-
ment would act speedily on:
its implementation.

He commended cadres in
the region for initiating
self-help projects and their
efforts to check smuggli
and the activities of
dents.

JPRS*SSA+85~123
16 December 1985

GHANA



JPRS+SSA“85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

WEAK RAND SAPS ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 85 ps5
[Article by Matthew White]

[Text]

WITH 75% of SA’s electronics in- further survey to look more deeply

into the EDP market is now un

dustry derived from exports, the
industry is feeling the strain of
the weak rand. However, econom-
ic justification for import re-
lacement would seem never to
ave been better, according to
Gerard Morse, deputy GM of the
Industrial Development Corpora-
tion. :
He was commenting after releas-
ing further details of a confidential
market survey of the industry in 1984
undertaken on behalf of eight major
electronics companies and the gov-
ernment-appointed Standing Com-
mittee for Electronics,

First details of the R225 000 survey
were revealed in August, when it was
announced that it would remain con-
fidential until it had been considered
by the sponsoring companies — Al-
tech, Federale Volksbeleggings,
Grinel, Philips, Plessey, Reunert, Sie-
mens and Telephone Manufacturers.

Morse said that after the most
recent release of information, howev-
er, further details were unlikely to be
made public,

Business & Marketing Intelligence,
of Pretoria, which conducted the
local part of the survey, obtained in-
formation from the sponsors and
from 16 public sector users and 125
non-subscribing suppliers.

The total SA market for electronic
components equipment and systems
in 1984 was estimated to be R4,4bn, or
about 1% of the world market, ac-
cording to the survey.

Of this the largest single sector,
electronic data processing (EDP), is
estimated at R1bn (23%). This figure, ‘
said Morse, is probably too low, and a

Way.
The two other major segments are
telecommunications equipment
ier and audio and video equipment

Public sector spending on electro-
nics during 1984 was about R1,3bn, or
about 30% of the total.

Expected rate of growth is 14% a
year over the next five years, If this is
achieved and if, as forecast, there is a
growth of 10% for the next five years,
the industry's contribution to total
RSA manufacturing sales will grow

_ to 14% in 1994 from 6,4% in 1984.

Analysis of the data has indicated
several areas where there is potential
for increased local content.

Foremost among these is in compo-
nents, where there is a large public
sector demand (70%), high expected
rowth (16% pal and low existing
local content (20%),

portunities for increased local
content were also found for EDP, test
and measurement, transport instru-
mentation, robotics and equipment
for medical and specialised litary
applications.

‘actors inhibiting the development
of new local ventures, sald Morse, are
the high levels of technology re-
quired, shortage of skills and short-
age of venture capital.

Market segmentation shows sig-
nificant differences with those in the
US, Japan and europe: For instance,
EDP comprises 27,3% in SA, which is
significantly higher than in the indus-
trialised countries. Morse said this
was partly accounted for by the high:
ly-advanced systems installed by

» financial institutions.

'

100



485*123
prs+SsA85°1
%6 December 1985

’ MAURITIUS

BRIEFS

RSA TRADE ‘WON OVER'--There has been a great response to Mauritius’ latest
attempt to get investment. from SA, says Mauritian trade representative in
Johannesburg Jean-Michel de Senneville. So far there have been inquiries
from industries as diverse as jewellery, garments and car spare parts, as
well as numerous service industries. South Africans are attracted by the
low wages--one~sixth of those in Hong Kong—and competitively priced skilled
work, For the cost of one accountant in SA, four accounting clerks and one
secretary can be paid for in Mauritius. The Trade Office has just announced
that the package of incentives to foreign investors has been improved. [Text]
{By Stephen Cranston] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 5]
19274

INCENTIVES TO FOREIGN INVESTORS--Mauritius is offering attractive incentives
to foreign investors with a much improved incentives package. Jean-Michel
de Senneville, the Mauritian trade representative in Johannesburg, said in
place of the existing package of a tax holiday in the initial few years, the
new package contained a number of components, including a 15% corporate tax
during the life of the company. Other incentives were: --No income tax on
dividends for 10 years; --Free repatriation/transfer of capital, profits and
dividends anywhere in the world; --Exemption of import duty on machinery,
equipment, spare parts, raw materials and semi-finished goods; --Electricity,
water and factory buildings at preferential rates; --Loans at 12.5%; --Issue
of work permits and residence permits to promoters and shareholders; and
--Guarantee against. nationalisation. De Senneville emphasised that this
package was being offered "against the background of a stable political en-
vironment, duty free and quota free access to the EEC and a highly literate,
adaptable and productive labour force at an exceptionally low wage cost".
Other advantages offered by Mauritius were what he termed excellent inter-
national communications, good infrastructure and a well-developed and diver-
sified industrial base, illustrated by a growth rate of 65% in 1984. [Text]
[Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 85 p 2] /9274

MALAYSIAN VISIT--The Mauritian ministers for industry and co-operatives,
Ramsamy Chedumbaram Pillay, and for trade and navigation, Khader Bayat,
made a four day visit to Malaysia. Among subjects discussed was the pos-
sibility of air services between the two countries. [Text] [Paris THE
INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 2 Nov 85 p 8] /9274

cso: 3400/475

29



/13104
cso:

3400/481

m’, giving the project a 20- to 25-year life,

The project will involve erection of a
130m-high production platform and con-
struction of a pipeline to carry the gas
ashore. These will be treated as separate
Operations, J

Mineral and/ Energy Affairs chief
Louw Alberts told Business Day recent-
ly that the go-ahead for the project did
not inean any respite was in sight for the
motorist.

Mossel Bay fu] prices would be based
on the dollar-related landed price of im-
ported fuels.

Alberts reckoned SA companies woyld
be able to supply about two-thirds of the
expertise, He would like to see about 50%
private sector participation.

CEF GM Daniel Vorster said the most
suitable vehicle for such participation
would probably be a private company.

It is expected that, when the project is
in production and achieving an accept-
able level of profitability, some level of
financial participation will be offered to
the public, probably by a JSE listing.

110



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

ZIMBABWE

BRIEFS

ONE-PARTY PLAN ADVICE--Harare--West German parliamentarians, concluding a
symposium with their Zimbabwean counterparts in Harare, have disagreed
strongly with plans to introduce a one-party state. "We had a bad exper-
dence of a one-party state under Hitler and we see a need for an opposition
in a multi-party system," the vice-chairman of Bonn's Bundestag, Heinz
Westphal, said at the closing session. Zimbabwe's only surviving independent
newspaper, the FINANCIAL CAZETTE, yesterday expressed anxiety about plans

for “one-party democracy" outlined to the symposium earlier this week by
Justice Minister Eddison Zvobgo. An editorial said Zvobgo's prediction,

that the rights of the individual would be subjugated to those of society

"in the interests of society", was depressing. "A correct translation of
what he said, particularly within the framework of a one-party state, would
be that the interests of the individual will be subjugated to those of a
party," said the FINANCIAL GAZETTE, [Text] [By Michael Hartnack] [Johannes-
burg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 85 p 8] /9274

cso: 3400/473 END

131



JPRS*SSA-85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

COMMENTARY VIEWS ANGOLANS 'ANIMOSITY' TOWARD CUBANS
MB141113 Johannesburg International Service in English 0630 GMT 14 Nov 85
[Station commentary: "The Cubans in Angola"]

[Text] It is now becoming quite apparent that among ordinary Angolans today,
there is growing animosity towards the Cuban forces in that country. On
Monday, Angola celebrated 10 years of independence from Portuguese rule, and
Dr Jonas Savimbi, the UNITA leader, disclosed that increasingly clashes were
developing between FAPLA troops and Angolan people on the one hand and Cuban
troops on the other hand.

In the past few months, there has been fighting between these two groups in at
least five towns in the country. The main reasons for the fighting are that
the FAPLA forces and the ordinary man in the street quite rightly feel that
the Cubans are receiving preferential treatment. They are getting the best
food and facilities. Also, as pointed out by Dr Savimbi there are 35,000
Cubans in Angola who are actually killing Angolans. They may be supporters of
UNITA, but they are still Angolans, and it was together with the MPLA
guerrillas that they fought against the Portuguese. Now there are foreigners
in country killing these people.

At the same time, the Cubans are not doing this cheaply. The war is costing
the Angolan Government $1 million a day. In addition, entire power stations
are being dismantled and taken to Cuba in payment for services rendered, as
are some of the country's best breeding stocks. The Cuban involvement in
Angola improverishing the country generally and ruining its economic infra-
structure. The result of all this is that morale is extremely low in most of
the areas under MPLA control.

During the recent offensive, UNITA captured 203 prisoners. These were shown
to newsmen at Jamba on Monday and afterwards many of them said they had been
grabbed off the street by MPLA officials and forced to join the army. They
were thrown into battle after only 3 months of training. The prisoners said
they had been told lies about UNITA, and all of them said that in future they
would be actively involved with UNITA in fighting to rid the country of
Cubans. It seems, therefore, that the Cubans have outstayed their welcome and
it is perhaps this factor above all that will evantually force the MPLA to
negotiate with UNITA.

Certainly, the FAPLA forces and their Cuban allies are making no headway
whatsoever on the battlefield.

19599
Cso: 3400/452
53



Failing a five-

fold increase in‘
turbulence, we are left with Number
Two, which is called “Substantial Re-
gime Change,” something less than
“Revolution Seven” or “Revolution
One”. It requires sustained violence at
10 times (another mystical number?)
the level of 1985, leading to negotia-
tions in which the whites operate
from a position of weakness — rather
like Ian Smith, one imagines, at Lan-
caster House.

The list is remarkable for what it
excludes. Let’s play Rotberg’s game
and speculate as he does.

Violence, measured by fatalities,
might reach Rhodesian levels, which
would require a 63-fold increase. It
might then, considering the force lev-
els available, increase another 20 or
50 times beyond that level.

It might spill into homelands, as the
conflict between Inkatha and the
UDF has been doing, and pit substan-
tial portions of the black population
against one another; and in that case,
SA might well be cantonised by force
as Lebanon has been. It might even be
partitioned by force, like India and
Pakistan, or Cyprus or Palestine.

At any point in the process, the
Soviet Union or the West — or both,
acting in the name of the United Na-

- tions — might intervene with unfore-'
seeable consequences.

L.. melodramatically, the co-o]
tation of the Rev Allan Hendrickse
and Amichand Rajbansi in the trica-
meral system might be consolidated
ba combination of patronage for
allies and persecution of opponents,
as is happening to a degree now. The
much-discussed linking of KwaZulu
and Natal in a federal province might
open new political possibilities
around the country.

,_ Gradual impoverishment by sanc-
tions and turbulence might ring a
totalitarian white government to
power which would shut the Press,

seal the townships, divert poverty
from whites to blacks and pour re-
sources into the maintenance of to-
talitarian controls.

In that case, arms spending could
go from 4% of gross national product
to the Soviet Union’s 14% or Israel's
29%. In other words, if we want to
play games with numbers, military
spending could increase by a factor of
seven, making revolution 70 times
harder to achieve.

A ocalyptic thinking is easy. The
reality is both more difficult to assess
and more mundane. Throughout the
past year’s turbulence, 80% of the
work force has been working more or
less productively. They will carry on,
more or less.

The collapse of our currency is
curbing our profligacy and trimming
our lifestyles, and if the government
can be persuaded to curb its lust for
taxes we shall gradually repay our
debts. We shall be forced to cancel
foreign holidays, sacrifice the Guccis
and make better use of our people and
less use of imported machinery and
‘imported luxuries. In time, ingenuity
will fill the gaps.

Meanwhile, between the poles of
violence and order, the search for
longer-term solutions will continue,
because it must.

’ This country is awash with people
of goodwill who, in spite of the unbe-
lievable folly of their government, de-
spite the violence and the tragedy,

‘despite the threats and the legitimate
fears that arise from an intractable

, Situation, still find the courage to go
about their daily lives doing their de-
cent best.

They don’t appear on television,
they don’t make speeches or denounce
compromises or issue ultimatums or
break things or kill people, but they do
create what historian Barbara Tuch-
man has identified as the strongest
influence on history: inertia.

They give us time to adapt, and
gradually, in seven ways times 70, we
are adapting to a future of infinite
possibilities. Nothing is foreordained.

113104
cso: 3400/481

107



DECLINE OF FARMING POPULATION REPORTED

JPRS*SSA*85~*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English 3 Nov 85 pa

{Article by Ciaran Ryan]

[Text]

/12828
cs0:

| SOUTH Africa’s farm-
ing population fell
from 90 000 in 1975 to
65000 this year — a
drop of 28%.

The number of farmers
leaving the land increased
dramatically in the past four
years because of drought
‘and mounting debts.

Many have abandoned
their farms, leaving credi-
tors to fight it out for the
assets.

One agricultural maga-
zine, which is mailed free to
every farmer, receives an
average of 200 returned
copies each month, indicat-
ing the scale of the migra-
tion from the land.

Respite

Most severely hit have
been maize farmers who
borrowed heavily to finance
plantings, although this
year’s crop of 7,2-million
tons will provide some res-
pite.

The value of the maize
crop is almost R1,6-billion
and much of the money will

3400/438

go to paying debts and fi-
panclng next season’s plant-
ings. There are estimated to
be fewer than 6 000 farmers
who rely on maize for more
than 50% of their income.

About 30000 farmers grow .

maize in varying quantities.

‘The chief economist of the
South African Agricultural
Union (SAU), Koos du Toit,
says the flight of farmers
from the land is in keeping
with the worldwide trend.

He says: “There are still
farmers in a healthy finan-
cial position and those with
spare cash are buying farms
from those who are quitting.

“The fruit and wine areas
of the Cape are stable in
terms of their farming popu-
lation.

“Sellers are mostly small
farmers. Another factor in

the declining farming popu-
lation is the increasing effi-
clency
sophistication of farmers.
Many parttime farmers are
operating effectively.”

Slashed

‘The 1985 SAAU report in-
dicated that farming debt
had shot up by 28% in the
pst year to R9,49-billion.

ut farmers’ ability to pay
their debts had been slashed
by half because of rising
a proportion of in-

71

and technological -

Almost 55% of all farmi
debt is short term compa
with 28,6% in 1970. Commer-
cial banks account for 30%
of farming credit, the co- »
operatives for 23% and the
Land Bank for 20%,

Commercial banks are
careful to lend money to
ood credit risks, The Land
jank, which lends money at
subsidised rates of interest,
has been turning away more
and more farmers who have

“no alternative but to ap-

roach the Agricultural
edit Board to avold bank-
ruptey.

Disastrous

If there are poor rains this
year, thousands more far-
mers will be driven off the
land, A fifth year of drought
would be disastrous for the
economy — displaced far-
mers would be forced to
search for work in over-
crowded cities, and # food’
shottage have to be over-
come by imports, financed

at great cost from the cur-
rent account. 7



It should by now be clear that the earlier clash -- the July, 1984, one
attempt to subvert PNDC Law 75. At any rate one wonders how the CDO came
by the "cause" of the 1984 clash which led it to set up the Lands Commit-
tee and Probe Committee to look into land cases and market stalls.

These points are further buttressed by the fact that when the 1957 committee
of enquiry report was upheld in favour of the Kusasis by the Court of Appeal
in 1958, no such aggression took place. The secret was that government
decisions to the letter which is conspicuously lacking now. Consequently,
the Mamprusis in Bawku not only disrespect the law, but have taken it into
their hands with arrogance and impunity.

The manner in which the Police have made their arrests and the inhuman treat-
ment meted out to the people arrested leaves much to be desired. Even though
it is clear to the authorities that the Mamprusis caused the clash and com-
mitted the large scale burning and looting of property, yet 90 percent of
the people arrested so far are Kusasis in the villages who never got to
Bawku to take part in the fighting and looting. These villagers were
mercilessly beaten up and pepper poured into their eyes. They, totalling
about 100 are now suffering from discharging eyes in the Navrongo Prisons.

In conclusion, we call on the government to set up a committee to inves-
tigate the causes of the July, 1984 and September, 1985 clashes and thereby
find solutions to them. Members of such a conmittee should be men of high
integrity and public probity.

We also urge the Upper East Regional Administration to stop hounding Kusasis.
Those who have been arrested deserve fair treatment and we trust that they
can be given such treatment.

/12851
cso: 3400/20

23



JPRS*SSA*85~+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

BUSINESS URGED TO REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 7

[Article by Andre Van Zy1]

[Text] BUSINESS should not reject regional
development just because decentral-
isation underpinned the policy of sep-
arate development, sald Simon
Brand, chief executive of the Devel-
opment Bank of Southern Africa.

Speaking at the Financial Mail
investment conference esterda he
said with the confederal, federal and
other constitutional models bein;

oposed for SA, it would be naive no

fo expect decentralised political deci-
sion-making to develop and to serve
primarily regional interests.

He said the private sector had tend-
ed to reject, or at least become in-
‘creasingly critical of the whole con-
cept of economic decentralisation
and, with it, the idea of development
int the self-governing and independent
states.

‘. However, Brand said, it must be
accepted that the existing national
state governments were likely to play
a role in giving form to any future
regional decision-making entities.

/13104
cso: 3400/481

This process had already been de-
monstrated most strikingly by the
current KwaZulu/Natal initiatives.

Whatever the form such regional
development might take, he said it
would be necessary to identify ele-
ments that would be compatible with
future constitutional developments:
CDemarcating regions should be
done as far as ible on economic
grounds.

DA multi-sectoral approach should
take into account the natural re-
source endowment of each region and
the substantial investment which had
already occurred. woe
DA clear distinction between public
and private sector roles would have
to be drawn, with the former focusin;
on infrastructural development anc
the latter on directly-productive ac-
tivities.

O The provision or extension of infra-
structure would have to be guided by
market signals.

89



JPRS-SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

BLOOD SUBSTITUTE DONATED BY SOVIETS

Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 2 Nov 85 pp 1, 5

[Text] The Ministry of Health got a dona.’ "The presentation of the donation was
tion of 4,000 bags of blood substitution made by Dr. Anatoli Ramikov, Direct.
‘(Polyglukin), which was handed at ‘a’, or General of Dej. Balcha Hospital, me-
function held in the premises of the mber of the Executive Committee of .
Dejazmatch Balcha Hospital yesterday., the Red Cross and Red Crescent Socie-

The gift was received by Comrade ties of the USSR and Candidate of Me-
Belloge Mckuria, Head of the Depart- diced Seiences, In a brief speech delive-
. we red on the occasion, Dr. Ramikov said
ment of Finance and Administration of the donation is meant for humane pur-
the Ministry of Health, In a brief re- : oa:
mark made on the occasion Comrade, poe n providing ier een ng these
Bellege expressed his appreciation for people m Serious pesith com wet the
the donation adding that this was not dly in need of blood. He stressed that
ok . . the donation will serve for the further
the first time that the Executive Com- strengthening of the friendship betwe-
mittee of the Red Cross and Red Cre- en the Soviet and the Ethiopian peo:
scent Societies of the USSR has extend- ples.
ed ass{stance to the Ethiopian people. The Dej. Balcha Hospital is manned
Comrade Bellege related further that by 90 Soviet staff, comprising doctors
the Dejazmatch Balcha Hospital, which and nurses and Ethiopian personnel
was set up in 1947 by the Soviet Red numbering 220, The hospital bas 240
Cross and Red Crecsent Societies has beds for in-patients The hospi ° at,
been rendering its services to the Eth- wide-range of services to Patients on
iopian people during the past 38 years in the in-patient and out-patient Jepa-
ond continues to do so even today. He parame hes Metiet , i
said this is ample demonstration of the eotlon? Uenees as wer D
close links and working gelationship Care Units. The OutPationt Depart:
existing between the two countries, He ment provides specialized services in
said the blood substitution will be used such fields as gynaecology, surgery,
in the treatment of compatriots suffer- ENT, dermatology, opthamology, pedi-
ing from various ailments and once , atries, dentistry, medical exercises, ma-
again thanked the donors. The dona- asage and acupuncture. 8
ition is estimated worth 80,000 birr.
'
13104

cso: 3400/499



KANGRA MERGER WITH ITALIAN GROUP REPORTED

JPRS-SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English 3 Nov 85 p3

{Article by Brendan Ryan]

[Text]

/12828
CSO:

GRAHAM Beck’s Kan.
gra coal group has
clinched a merger with
Icodev, the South Afri-
can coal subsidiary of
Italian energy group
Agip Carbone.

‘The merger has led to the
formation of a group which
will eventually export annu-
ally 4,5-million tons of coal,
currently worth about R400-
million,

Details are sketchy, but the
deal was signed in Johannes-
burg this week by Agip chair-
man Francesco Cossrini.

Mr Beck, a multi-million-
aire better known to the pub-
lic for his horse racing activi-
ties than his coal-mining
operations, could not be
reached for comment this
week.

Details

Icodev mana; jing director
Alan Tew said: “In broad
terms, there has been a
merger of interests in South

. Africa between Kangra and

Icodev in relation to bitumi-
nous coal.”

A company had been
formed to control Kangra

3400/438

and Icodey. Details of how it
would operate and represen-
tation at board and manage-
ment levels were still being
made final.

Mr Tew declined to dis-
close whether there had been
any cash payments between
Kangra and Icodev.

He said the deal showed
Agip’s determination to stay
in South Africa and develop
its interests,

Agip had held discussions
with Gold Fields of South

Africa (GFSA), but no agree- ,

ment was reached.

* Reserves

Both GFSA and Kangra
have coal deposits close to
those held by Icodey in the
Carolina district of the East-
ern Transvaal. .

Teodev has coal reserves
and a 2-million ton Phase 4
export quota, but no mining
‘operations.

Kangra, wholly owned b
Mr Beck, runs several col-
lieries. It ex

through the Anthracite Pro-:
ducers Association (APA)
and 1,1-million tons of bitu-
minous coal through the

72

rts 1,15-million ,
: tons of anthracite annually ‘

Natal Associated Collieries
(NAC).

Kangra also has a 350.000
tons a year provisional Phase
4 export allocation.

The deal is another expan-
sion of Mr Beck's coal-min-
ing interests which have tak-
en off since he bought Anglo
American Corporation's 48%
stake in Natal Coal Explora-
tion (NCE) in 1978, °

Another step

In 1982 he consolidated his
grip on NCE through an in-
ternal deal in which he sold it
the Longridge colliery in re-
turn for shares. NCE also ac-
quired the Bee Sting colliery.
near Ogies,

NCE subsequently ac-
quired the Springlake col-
Hery, also from parent Kan-
gra.

Kangra eventually raised
its stake in NCE to 90% in
October 1984 and this year
took out minorities to make it
a wholly owned subsidiary.

The latest deal provides
Mr Beck with a 50% share in
Icodev's 2-million ton Phase
4 export quota. Ieodey has
linked up with an existing

roducer whose infrastruc-
‘ure can be expanded to ex-
ploit its reserves, .



/12828
cso:

The variation is explained by different rental rates.
The survey notes that in several centres where ser-
vice charges have been approved these have not been
implemented due to the unrest.

The household subsistence level for a five-member
coloured family ranged from R316 a month in Uiten-
hage to R366 in Durban, R379 in Pretoria and R389
in Johannesburg.

The household subsistence level for an Indian
household of six in Durban is now R401 a month. No
statistics are given for Indian families living else-

where. :
AVERAGE SUBSISTENCE LEVEL COSTS FOR 6 MEMBER BLACK FAMILY

400,

370} -

set”

no

280}

250}

‘no

v9 , AAR
o—ocroper |_|

N60) ‘e MARCH
S—SEPTEMBER

130)

AO La

SUBSISTENCE LEVEL COST FOR 5 MEMBER COLOURED FAMILY
400)

o A Oo AO a0 0° w TM TM C] TM
W757 77 We 1979 98D aa) 9 19839 9es | 186

m0)
wy
mM
7
‘I
' 7—APRE
o—ocroner |_|
as R_MARCH
S—SEFTEMBER
19)
10! "
AOA OA OA O LJ
975 ‘wm WT 7s 1979981987 ‘182 198919881981
3400/438 '

78



Bhekimpi Makes Firm Stand Against Sanctions

(THE TIMES OF SWAZILAND, 29 Oct 85) ...+seeeeeees eens o. 126
Tribal Fighting Over Border Issue Denied

(Jon Qwelane; THE STAR, 3 Nov 85) ..-.+-+- pene nncee sence 127
Mhlume Sugar Company Forecasts Drop of 30,000 Tonnes

(THE TIMES OF SWAZILAND, 30 Oct 85) ....+seeeeee see eeee o 128

ZIMBABWE

Options for UANC After Muzorewa's Resignation

(Howard Barrell; THE WEEKLY MAIL, 15-21 Nov 85) ......++- 130
Briefs

One-Party Plan Advice 131



JIPRS“SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

RESPONSE TO MIT PROFESSOR ROTBERG'S ARTICLE

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 85 p 8

[Article by Ken Owen:

[Text]

LEASE! No more lists! No

more “ways to save the coun-

try”. No more “things we

must do or else”, No more
scenarios, prophecies, predictions,
warnings, admonitions. We’ve had
enough. .

Breaking point, at least for me, was
a fatuous article by Professor Robert
Rothberg, of the Massachusetts Insti-
tute of Technology, a man whose opin-
ions have not been discernibly ,al-
tered, so far as I can tell, since he
became a frequent visitor to SA.

It begins: “South Africa has seven
possible destinies.”

In the 13th Century, a dreadful time
not unlike our own, sages looked for
guidance to the 10 divine emanations
of the Cabbala which, together with
the 22 letters of the Hebrew alphabet,
led to the 32 paths of secret wisdom.
But in this hurried century, seven will
have to do.

It’s a number rich with ancient
mystery: the Seven Days of Creation,
and the seven Japanese Gods of Luck,
and the Seven Holy Founders of the
Order of Friar Servants of St Mary,
and, of course, the Seven Deadly Sins,
one of which is to prophesy falsely.

R vce: first prediction — he
starts at the back, presumably for
mystical purposes — is Number Sev-
en (Revolution), which is the same as
Number One (Revolution), He does
not think either revolution will hap-
pen because white South Africans are

"Playing The Fatuous Rotberg Game. . ."]

too heavily armed and “South Africa
has never known political laagers”.

Number Six is very clever. It is
called “Change but no change”. By
this he means that whites will keep
changing and blacks will keep saying:
“So what?” ’

Number Five is “Concessions,”
which differs from Number Six in that
it requires more violence within SA
and more pressure from the West.

: This would result in an end to the pass

laws and influx control, better hous-
ing and education for black people,
common citizenship, African fran-
chise at local or regional level and the
release of Nelson Mandela.
Like Number Six, it doesn’t work.
Number Four becomes promising.
It is “Limited Power sharing are-
sult of bargainin between white and
black which might lead to black con-:
trol of black cities, and black munici-
pal franchise. But Four, Rotberg
rightly concludes, can only be a pre-
lude to Number Three.
Number Three
is “Power Shar-
ing,” something
less than “one
man, one: vote,”
and it could come
about if unremit-
ting agitation by
Africans reaches
levels five times
as high as in 1985.
The mystical sig-
nificance of the
number five is not
explained.

106



AECI OFFICIAL PUSHES SYNFUEL PROJECT

JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English 27 Oct 85 p3

[Article by David Carte]

[Text]

AECI'S new managing
diregtor, Mike Sander,
is eager, under present
conditions, to go ahead
with AECI’s R2-billion
diesel-from-coal plant.
He will lead an AECI dele-
ation on the subject to the
Zovernment tomorrow.

But the strapping, easy-
laughing Young Turk (44),
who takes over the helm
from the late Ted Smale, has
reservations.

He warns that the condi-
tlons making a synfuel pe
Ject viable are hardly ideal
for South Africa.

“A profitable synfuel _

plant requires a low rand

and that implies a troubled «

economy. and negative
foreign perceptions of SA.”

Floor price

Without the type of fund-
ing assistance from the State
that Sasol had, the project is
a non-starter. But a feasibil-
ity study has shown it to be

ve other thing troubles

Mr Sander about the synfuel
plant and that is the vulner-

/12828

CSO: 3400/438

: ability ofthe world oll price.

ECT has benefited from
SA’s travails before. The
chemical industry was a
prime beneficiary of the im-
ort replacement drive that
followed the 1976 Soweto ri-
ots and President Carter’s
sanctions threats.

It has been a victim of
reduced protection since
cash-flush 1980 when politi-
cl Pressure declined as
well.

Still, Mr Sander fers
the healthier scenario im-
Plied by a high dollar price

of gold, strong growth and

Political tranquillity.

Although he believes in .

healthy competition, he says:
“Industry in a small market
such as ours should pull to-
gether, take our fundamen-
tal strengths — the things in
which we have a competitive
advantage, our people re
source, our coal and other,
feedstocks — and build up a
Jong chain of different busi-
nesses working together,
with Government sta:
behind it. ‘
“We have done this in
AECI and together with oth-
er chemfcal companies and I
beliéve this, rather than

blind free trading, is the
route to follow.”
Mr Sander once held that
nobody should do the same
b for Jonger than seven
years. Will he be boss of
for only seven years?
“If, after five to seven
years, you are still flexible,
willing to learn and a good
member of the team you
should go on.”

Mr Sander was schooled
at Durban High School and
graduated in chemical engi-
neering at Natal University.
Like those other xoung

irks, Warren Clewlow of
Barlows Rand and David
Brink of Murray & Roberts,
he is server. He has
ith AECI 23 years.

Commercial

Immediately after Joining
the company he was sent to
ICI in the UK for two years,
In the early years, he was
concerned with petro-chemi-
cal plant design,

“After a while, I deliber-
ately sought something more
commercial. I was made
general manager of Anikem,
@ small-service oriented
company, in which AECI had
an American partuer.”

76

At Anikem Mr Sander
first attracted board atten-
tion. After this his career
started to move. He had a
: Year at Rand Carbide and in
; 1978, he moved to the Chior-

Alkali plastics division.

After a year, he became MD
and worked closely with
main board member, Ted
Smale. He joined the '‘AECE
board only last year, so his
fecent rise has been meteor-
ec.

Early days

His plans for AECI?

“I was appointed only yes-
terday, so it’s early to say.
My first job is to make sure
the organisational changes
we made last year evolve
and develop to fruition. We'll
stay with the same struc.
ture,

: fa explosives, we will
continue with our strategy of
decentralised Tactories® and
technological advancement.
‘There are good opportunities
to de-bottleneck in Chlor-Al-
kali and plastics. Here we
can get big returns for small
outlays. A major objective is
to encourage new directions
for the company.”



JPRS~SSA*85~123_
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

STATE SPENDING INCREASE REPORTED
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 13 Nov 85 pl
[Article by John Tilston and Gerald Reilly]

[Text] STATE SPENDING ‘appears set to “Higher gold earnings caused by the’

overshoot revised Budget estimates
by at least Ribn this financial year,
bringing the increase from last
year’s level to 19%.

Deputy Director-General of Finance
Gerhard Croeser says government has
taken a conscious
spending. i

He says although state spending has
been more or less on target for the first
six months of the year, departments will
be allowed more leeway i their spend-
ing. But government will still aim for a
deficit before borrowing of 3% of gross
domestic product (GDP).

The justification is that economic cir-
cumstances have changed since the
March Budget and there is a need to
stimulate the eeonomy.

The tax-cut option has been rejected
because the multiplier effect (the degree
to which initial spending has a ripple’
‘effect throughout the economy) of gov-'
-ernment spending is greater at this stage:
of the business cycle.

The original spending estimate was
R31,459bn — 15% in excess of 1984/85
expenditure.

‘olkskas Bank economist Adam Ja-:
cobs believes the actual figure is now.

likely to be closer to 19%. This would
mean an increase of more than Ribn to
about R32,4bn. .
On the revenue side,
Finance Minister Bar-
end du Plessis has bud-
geted for an increase
in income of 18,8% to
R28,3bn,
The figure is now
likely to be greater because a number of
revenue sources are well ahead of esti-
mates. . . .

ecision to increase’

weak rand and the consequent greater
tax collections from the mining industry,
coupled with the intensified tax collec-,
‘tion effort, will continue to boost state
j coffers. One estimate puts revenue for,
, 85/85 at Ri,1bn above Budget.

: But the change in policy direction will
-not be welcomed by all. Standard Bank
economists have been suggesting for.
some time that the most appropriate
way of stimulating the economy is a cut }
_ in GST.

A bank spokesman has dismissed the |
argument that the multiplier effect of ;
tate spending is necessarily greater.

“We believe that a 2% cut in GST,
: would lead to an almost equal increase in
spending. Government Spending ine!
creases will have maximum multiplier +
, effect only if the money is used directly
in job creation.
, _ “Ifthe money is used to buy goods and ‘
services, the multiplier effect may be:
, diluted as supplier firms use excess ca-
pacity and improve profitability.” i

The major concern Standard anc
others have over an increase in govern.
ment spending is the harm it will do to
credibility.

The government had been makin;
some progress in this area with its spend-
ing in the first half of the year, but any
sizeable overshoot will further dent its
already tarnished credibility.

The increase in spending will hurt
prospects of significant tax cuts in the
next Budget, although earlier optimism
is beginning to fade.

Volkskas’ Jacobs: says that with a

102



GOLD MINING INDUSTRY URGED TO BE COMPETITIVE

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 7

[Article by Liz Rouse]

[Text ]

THE gold mining industry could
be faced with having to promote
marketing of surplus output, Ju-
lian Baring, mining partner of
James Capel & Co, told delegates
at the Financial Mail’s annual ,
investment conference yesterday. i
‘The gold mining industry world- |
wide could be faced with having to
market an extra 100 tons of gold,
which in a good year would other-
wise have sold to buyers of
Krugerrands.
He posed the idea that gold
would Fave to be treated as acom-
etitive product on three prem-
ses:

OThe gold price was still high in -

terms of its long-term purchasing :
wer. It might take time for in-.
ition to catch up with it.

Meanwhile, other instruments
had been created to substitute for
gold — index linked bonds, finan-
cial futures, traded options, float-
ing rate bonds and zero coupon
bonds.

CINo newly-mined gold would be
used for the American Eagle,

‘which would be minted from

; Treasury gold.

! “All the financial investment in-
struments were designed, to a
greater or lesser extent, to offer
an alternative to gold. “It is there-
fore hardly sur rising that when
taken with low OECD inflation and
buoyant ‘markets elsewhere, in-
vestment demand remains sub-
dued.” ‘

Traditional buyers were not
prepared to pay more than $330.
at left the industry with fabrica-

tion demand, of which the most
important was jewellery.

ring suggested that the jewel-
lery industry was a fragmented
business. If the gold mining indus-
try worldwide were to spend 5% of
:its annual revenue on promotion
or vertical integration, about
$600m would be available, of
t which SA’s_ contribution would
amount to about $350m. If expen-
diture of such a sum succeeded in
increasing demand, jewellers
could perhaps be induced to re-
duce margins and thereby im-
prove their sales volumes.

“What is clear to me is that
there is no room for complacency.
The mining industry has waited
long enough for an unaided im-
provement in the gold price,” Bar-

ig said.

He demolished the mystique at-
tached to the gold price in SA and
its eternal bullishness about the
price.

“I wish someone would explain
to me why the main producer of
this wonder metal is having such a
hard time? After all gold remains
about the only metal whose price
is high enough | to be worth looking
for in every country, including the
US, and this su, pests the price in
real terms is still relatively high.”

The factors which everyone
identified as being important for
gold — mounting inflationar

ressures in the Western world,
international and domestic debt
problems and huge US budget and

rade deficits — seemed to be hav-'

87

JPRS*SSA~85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

+ ing remarkably little impact on
the price.

Yet gold shares in many coun-
tries mere on multiples ani jields
which suggested great growth po-

' tential for the metal. (See table) Tn
contrast,.the behaviour of gold it-
i, self suggested that gold had run_

; ahead of the game and was wait-
“ing for inflation to catch up with it.

if gold was “money you can
trust”, it should have maintained
its purchasing power. If it had
done so from 1914 (the last year a
pound note could be exchanged for
a sovereign), the price today
should be $292 an ounce.

Either way, it suggested that the
gold price was already discount-
ing some acceleration of inflation
in the US. Taking current US infla-
tion rates of 3,5%, it would take 16
years for inflation to catch up with

e gold price, if 1914 was used asa
starting point, and three years,
starting from 1935.

“The financial system may be
scary enough to explain folds pre-
mium and even to justify it, but

haps undue optimism about
future price levels should be tem-
pered.”

- Baring said North American
fold shares were “dangerously
igh” in the absence. of a marked
increase in the gold Grice. Non-
South African shares did particu-
larly well when things went wrong
in SA and were highly rated when

| times were difficult here.

But there had been a regular
, small demand for the US stocks
where the gold funds were still



JPRS*SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

BARCLAYS OFFICIAL ATTACKS POLITICAL STATUS QUO
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 7

[Text] BARCLAYS MD Ball argued that the quality of gov-

Chris Ball called
for SA to acknowl-
edge openly the in-
appropriateness of
its ideology and to.
accept the need for
better executive
government.
At the Finan-
cial Mail conference yesterday, Ball
delivered a scathing, but construc-
tive, attack on the political and eco-
nomic status quo in SA. He said that
continued adherence to the myths and
ideology of the present system would
take the country very quickly down a
very slippery sl Pe
le lamented SA’s poor economic
growth record of the past 15 years.
GDP has grown at an annual average
rate of only 2,7% which, excluding the
windfall years of 1974 and 1980, de-
ova san absurd f
is is an absurdly poor perform-
ance compared with other countries.”
Ball said: “We have practised eco-

nomic self-deception and the official ,

approach to economic management
has been one of washing the hands of

the underlying performance in at-'

tempting to attain serendipity. In ad-
dition, we have accepted the cost of.
government and its bureaucracies
without challenging the benefit.”
He also decried the myth that bus-
inessmen should not get involved in
ities, He said “we must not be
amboozled in allowing politics itself
to become a sacred cow as we have
been bamboozled by the politicians
into letting them believe that they are
our masters and are entitled to be-
have as our masters rather than as
the temporary occupants of positions
of trust for the community.’

ernment needed improving. He said
the consequences of ideologies includ-
ed non-accountability, nepotism,
authoritarianism, bureaucracy and
insensitivity. These elements con-

taminate our whole society and we’

‘heed to open them up as issues and
purge them from our experience, He
noted comment from overseas visi-
tors who regularly say that there are
plenty of impressive people in South
Africa but not many in government.
Economic success in SA was read-
ily achievable and Ball put forward a
number of Proposals for a redesign of
the existing situation:
O Purge society of the ideology and
its corollaries;
OC Establish better executive govern-

ment;

OThink laterally about economic
“needs and opportunities. This means
we need serious and responsible de-
bate on a wide front;

0 Aim high. “As a nation we face an
enormous challenge. If we wish to
raise the standards of our community
.to those of some of the moderately
successful nations of the world we
will need a growth rate in excess of
5% fo 30 years.

Oi Examine the relevance of the suc-
cesses achieved in some developing
countries;

Establish an effective planning en-
tity. In Ball’s view, SA needs sophisti-
cated umbrella planning to ensure
success;

(Reduce the bureaucracy. SA can-
not afford the fancy layers of regional
and local government; .
OExtend the application of free-
market practices; . .
Set goals for the community, with
‘its support. There are no common

55



AFRIKAANS EXAM EARNS APPROVAL OF TEACHERS

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 15 Nov 85 pg

[Text]

19274
sO:

3400/472

THE first Afrikaans ma-
triculation examination
yesterday, for students
writing the paper as a sec-
ond language, was found
to be reasonable and tes-

- ted the pupils’ ability to
‘write, think and use the

language, said teachers at
Johannesburg schools.

The Afrikaans exam is
split into two sections,
with yesterday's language
Paper counting 160 marks
and the literature paper
on Monday counting 80
marks.

Mr G Lurie, the co-
principal at Eden Col-
lege, said the paper gave
no real cause for concern.

He said there was
enough in the paper for
the average and weaker
students to pass with, but
it would be difficult for
the top students to attain
distinctions.

Miss A Engelbrecht,
the Afrikaans teacher at
Studywell College, said
the essay topics .made
provisions for a wide
range of interests, and the
comprehension and gram-
mar section seemed fairly
straight forward.

Miss Engelbrecht felt
some of the vocabulary in
topics in the standard
grade paper would have
been more appropriate
for the higher grade
paper.

Miss A van Rensburg
of Parktown Boys’ High
School said her weaker
students also had difficul-
ty trying to understand
some of the language sec-
tion vocabulary, but she
was happy that the paper
had tested the candidates’
ability to use Afrikaans.

The final matric paper
for this week is the second
physical science paper.

51

JPRS*SSA*85°123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

BRIEFS

AGRICULTURAL COLLEGE GRADUATES--Seventy~eight students received here yesterday
diplomas upon completion of a two-year course at the Ambo Junior Agricultural
College. Certificates were also awarded to teachers, students and workers of
the college for their outstanding performaces during their service as
campaigners in various rehabilitation sites. There certificates, diplomas and
special prizes were presented by Comrade Debela Dinsa, member of the CC of the
WPE and First Secretary of the WPE Committee of Shoa region, at a ceremony in
the assembly hall of the college. Comrade Debela Dinsa urged the course
participants to live up to expectation to ensure the success of the
villagization scheme in progress in implementation of the resolutions of the
second plenum of the CC of the WPE. Comrade Debela Dinsa also handed a trophy
to the college dean. Comrade Belay Shiferaw, at the request of the
campaigners. The trophy was given to them for their outstanding contribution
in rehabilitation centre in Metekel province. Present at the ceremony were
Comrade Dr. Taye Gulilat, Commissioner for Higher Education. Comrade Solomon
Gebre, member of the CC of the WPE and Head of the Ideological Affairs of the
WPE Committee of Shoa region, and other regional WPE Committee members.

{Text] [Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 2 Nov 85 p 1} /13104

NMS POLITICAL CADRES GRADUATE--A group of political cadres from the second
batch of the National Military Service (NMS) recently graduated on completion
of a three-month course in political education at the Tatek Training Centre.
Prizes were handed over to the cadres by Comrade Major Faisal Yussuf,
alternate member of the CC of the WPE and Head of the Education Section of the
Main Political Administration of the Armed Fores of Revolutionary Ethiopia.
Comrade Major ‘Faisal urged the cadres, who will serve as political workers, to
learn more from books ‘and practices and to build on their present political
knowledge. It ‘was stressed at the ceremony that the cadres would effectively
contribute their share to the task of laying the foundation for the People's
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.. [Text] [Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in
English 1 Nov 85 p 1] /13104

EDUCATIONAL RADIO--A six-week course for local education-by-radio programme
editors of three administrative regions opened here yesterday. Organized by
the Educational Mass Media Department of the Ministry of Education, the course
is being attended by programme editors from Eritrea, Bale and Wollega regions
and will offer practical training in the use of local languages to help
promote development activities and indicate solutions to pressing local

13



PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH CRITICIZES CURBS ON PRESS COVERAGE

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 15 Nov 85 p 4

[Text]

19274
CSO:

3400/471

LEADERS of the Pres-
byterian Church of South-
ern Africa said yesterday
they strongly objected to
the curbs the Govern-
ment has imposed on
members of the Press cov-
ering township unrest.

“We speak on behalf of
the Whites who are tragi-
cally out of touch with the
suffering of their fellow
South Africans,” said a
statement signed by three
church leaders, including
the Moderator, the Rev
GS Craig.

On November 2, the
Government introduced
restrictions on certain
types of news coverage in
townships within the 38

emergency areas. Visual ..

prohibited unless permis-

sion had been received.
from the Commissioner

of Police.
The churchmen said
that on behalf of the Pres-

byterian Church of South- :
erm Africa “we strongly.

object to the recent curbs
on Press coverage”.

It added: “We are also
concerned that this leaves
the nation dependent on

the information given by

the authorities where the |
danger is not only of little

information, but also of
misinformation.

“We recognise that a

free Press can be abused,
but the dangers of sup-
pression of information
are. .even.. greater.""1 1

rand sound coverage WAS wsSapa. yer yor rs erm

42

JPRS=SSA*85-123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



INDEPENDENT CHURCHES VIEWED AS 'SILENT' FOR TOO LONG

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 8 Nov 85 p 13

[Text]

19274
cso:

3400/470

The African independent churches,
traditionally conservative, have for
the first time voiced strong oppo-
sition to the government.

The African Spiritual Churches’
Association (ASCA), which repre-
sents more than 100 independent:
churches, felt that it had “remained
silent for too long”, ASCA president
Archbishop NH Ngada said yester-
day.

On the controversial topic of disin-
vestment, ASCA said: “To us it
makes no difference if there could
be disinvestment because we have
suffered before and we are still suf-
fering.”

Turning to the unrest situation in
the country, Archbishop Ngada said
in a statement that ASCA did not
trust the Government because rela-
tives and children of members had
been killed.

“The people who claim to be keep-
ing law and order are the ones who
break the law,” he said.

ASCA rejected violence, no matter
who perpetrated it, and demanded
that the South African Defence
Force and the police be moved out
of the townships immediately.

46

JPRS+SSA785°123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



/12828
cso:

3400/438

_| The third important benefit accruing
to this country from its low-value rand is
the overseas demand for mineral ore,
coal, steel and other commodities.

While it is not expedient to indicate
the destinations of some of the cargoes,
people associated with the business
smile when they note how words and

* works differ. Business is conducted with

*some of the most vitriolic anti-SA coun-
tries.

Some parcels composed of 50 000 tons
of minerals, and ships to lift them, have
been arranged two months in advance.
Richards Bay will be busy. .

75



JPRS“SSA+85*123

16 December 1985

OPTIONS FOR UANC AFTER MUZOREWA'S RESIGNATION

Johannesburg THE WEEKLY MAIL in English 15-21 Nov 85 p?7

{Article by Howard Barrell]

[Text] THE United African National Council
(UANC) looks set to collapse
completely, following the resignation
of its president, one-time Zimbabwe-
Rhodesia Prime Minister Bishop Abel
Muzorewa.

The result would be the removal of -
one of the smaller obstacles to Prime *

Minister Robert Mugabe's plans for a
one-party state.

Muzorewa's resignation, conveyed
in a letter last month from the United
States to UANC vice-presidents Titus

Mukarati and Walter Mtimkulu, ©
leaves the UANC without any:
leadership of any consequence. News *

of the resignation broke only this
week.

In the general election in July this
year, the UANC lost the three seats it
had won in the pre-independence 1980

Peace and merger talks between
Mugabe's ruling ZANU (PF) party
and Joshua Nkomo's, ZAPU, which
together control all but one of the 80
black seats in parliament, are reported
still to be on course, The remaining
seat is controlled by ZANU (Sithole),
whose leader Ndabiningi Sithole is in
self-imposed exile.

Muzorewa said in his letter of
resignation that after the July election
result he was no longer able to
influence political developments in
Zimbabwe and felt he should
concentrate on religion. He is leader
of the United Methodist Church in
Zimbabwe.

Muzorewa is understood to have
written a second letter to Mugabe, but
its contents are unknown.

Once a key figure in achieving unity
among black nationalist parties in
order to defeat British proposals for
Rhodesian independence, Muzorewa
has since become a symbol of the

19274
cso: 3400/473

illegitimacy and inevitable electoral
failure of compromise to African
nationalist principles.

Briefly Prime Minister of
Zimbabwe-Rhodesia, Muzorewa
romped home with 51 of the 72 black
seats in the pre-independence elections
of April 1979 which excluded
Mugabe's and Nkomo's parties. n

But his energetic prosecution of the
war against ZANU and ZAPU and his
failure to bring peace to the country
rapidly eroded his support.

Immediately after casting his ballot
in this year's election, Muzorewa
slipped out of Zimbabwe via Malawi
without waiting for the results to be
announced. He is now believed to be in
Tennessee in the United States.

UANC Secretary General Edward
Mazaiwana said this week the
remaining party leadership expected
Muzorewa to return to Zimbabwe
Soon, but understood Muzorewa has
asked his church for sabbatical leave.
If granted, this would mean his return
to Zimbabwe in only 1987.

Meanwhile, it is understood his

: leadership of the United Methodist
Church is also in doubt. The church is
reported to be unhappy about his long
absence.

There are two main options before

j the UANC: To call a special congress
to elect a new leadership, or to
disband.

A senior UANC source said this
week neither Mtimkulu nor Mukarati
had been in touch with the UANC
office in Harare since receiving
Muzorewa's letter of resignation last
month,

Observers tonsider that this inertia
in response to Muzorewa's resignation
and the party's lack of parliamentary
representation foreshadows the
party's dissolution.

130

ZIMBABWE



220,000 quintals of molasses annually,
Its present output is 423,970 quintals
of sugar per year.

As further revealed by the Public
Relations Office, at this stage the com-
bined total output of the three facto-
ries will be 2,484,483 quintals of
sugar and 892,623 quintals of molas-
ses. Their total produce today is 1.8
quintals of sugar and 667,549 quint-
als of molasses.

The Ethiopian Sugar Corporation
will also be launching a number of
other projects on the basis of the na-
tion’s Ten-year Perspective Plan. A
feasibility study for a new sugar cane
plantation and factory at Finchaa,
Wollega region, ‘has been completed.
Something like 8,000 hectares of land
has been demarcated for the project,
out df-which 6,000. will be used for
‘sugar cane cultivation. Bid documents

are ready and sources of finance are
now under consideration.

The F:nchaa factory, which will be
located 344 ‘kilometres north-west of
Addis Ababa, will have an output of
more than 1.2 million quintals of
sugar and 450,000 quintals of molas-
ses annually by the time it enters peak
operation phase. The establishment of _
‘the Finchaa plant ig expected to create
employment opportunities for an esti-
mated 5,000 workers at the initial
stage. / .

The studies for the Finchaa sugar
factory began in 1978. The factory is
scheduled to go into production at
full capacity in 1989-90, Total pro-
duction at full capacity will be raised

to 1,250,000. quintals after comple-
tion of an extension work, The initial
output will be 840,000 quintals of su-
Bar per year. An ethanol Processing
plant of ‘an initia} capacity of 8,000
tons and expandable to 12,000 tons
Per year is envisaged to be annexed
to the Finchaa factory,

Molasses is the other export item of
the Ethiopian Sugar Corporation. A
feasibility study is currently under
way for the setting up of an ethanol
and bakers’ yeast Project at Shoa and
Wonji factories, When realized that
plant can produce 19,000 metric tons
of ethanol and 1,100 tons of bakers’
yeast, the Public Relations Office fur.
ther disclosed,

The office also outlines the various
amenities enjoyed by. workers in all
three factories. The Aggregate total
number of workers is given as 16,148,
which figure includes permanent wor.
kers, head office and branch staff as

well as piece rate and seasonal work-
ers,

On the basis of statistics released by

the Public Relations Office, Wonji and
Shoa factories have 2,755 permanent
and 1,379 piece rate and 2,429 seas.
onal workers respectively, Metahara
has 2,994 permanent, 4,278 piece rate
. and 1,935 seasonal workers respective-
ly. Staff at the head office ‘and the
branches is 378, - '

Workers in all three factories are
entitled to retirement pension, medical
care and are covered by an ‘insurance
scheme against all kinds of accidents,
In respect! to medical care, there is a



JPRS*SSA+85"123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

ROW OVER 'PROPAGANDA' IN AFRIKAANS EXAM PAPER

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 14 Nov 85 p 10

(Text CAPE TOWN. — Bla- ‘Students were placed
tant propaganda in an in emotional stress in the
Afrikaans = examination Acneri examination room. I will
paper written by student “An American column- ay in my letter that if the
teachers has drawn strong ist said that after receiv- students took umbrage
criticism and accusations ing the Nobel Prize they will have to be given
of “misusing a captive au- Bishop Tutu experienced the benefit.
dience”. freedom of speech, free-
i i in dom totravel, freedomto. . ;
National Diplo * ho gather, religious freedom ‘A captive audience

P ” was misused. The as-
+ wrote the Department of 2nd freedom.” - sumption was that they

Education and Culture Mr Franklin Sonn, rec- would quiety read and
jGHouse of Representa- tor of the Peninsula Tech- think about the objection-
tives) second Afrikaans nikon and president of able and slanderous state-
» Paper on Tuesday, have the Cape Teachers’ Pro- ments.”

protested against the text fessional Association,

of the comprehension | who was one of the edu» Mr Sonn said the paper
question, which was __cationists who met Presi- had been set by the De-
taken from the Depart- dent P W Botha this partment of Education
ment of Foreign Affaits week, said he took and Culture in the House
publication, SA Digest, «strong exception” and of Assembly. Because
of November 23 1984. was writing a letter of White education was con-

The text reads: “If a protest _to the Depart- . trolled on a provincial le-

Black man could choose ; ment of National Educa- vel, this department had
‘where in Africa hej tion. no work to do. — Sapa.
wanted to live, there is!

little chance he would ;

choose any country other ;

than South Africa after a

comparative study. . .

“Where else on this

continent could he find,

for example, comparative

housing at the same ad- |

vantageous conditions,

medical care, agricultural !

guidance or a better edu-

cation for his children?

Yes, but. . . the critics of

South Africa will immedi-

ately say, what about pol-

itical freedom? Everyone

surely knows that South

Africa is not a free coun-

try...

19274
cso: 3400/472

50



Conference on Security Ends
(THE CITIZEN, 14 Nov 85) ........ .

Barclays Official Attacks Political Status Quo

(BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ........

Prospect. of Economic Recovery Seen .
(THE CITIZEN, 12 Nov 85) ......40.

Economists Hope for Limited Growth
(John Tilston; BUSINESS DAY, 5 Nov

De Kock Downplays Inflation Fears

85)

(THE CITIZEN, 9 Nov 85) ....eceeceeceeee

Experts Dissect De Kock Report

(Gad Ariovich; THE SUNDAY STAR, 3 Nov 85) ......eeee

Commerce, Industry Experience 'Catch 22' Blues
(Angus Macmillan; SUNDAY TIMES, 27 Oct 85) ........

Bruma Lake Development Costs Assessed |

(THE CITIZEN, 1 Nov 85) ...seeeseeeeeeee

Annual Coal Exports Could Top Sixty Million Tons

(Madden Cole; THE CITIZEN, 7 Nov 85)

ETC To Open New Gold Deposits in Princeton

(THE CITIZEN, 8 Nov 85) .........eeee

Decline of Farming Population Reported

(Ciaran Ryan; SUNDAY TIMES, 3 Nov 85)

Kangra Merger With Italian Group Reported
(Brendan Ryan; SUNDAY TIMES, 3 Nov

Price War, Drought, Debt Wreck Triomf

(Ciaran Ryan; SUNDAY TIMES, 3 Nov 85)

Shipyards Benefit From Low Rand Value

85)

(George Young; BUSINESS DAY, 29 Oct 85)

AECI Official Pushes Synfuel Project

(David Carte; SUNDAY TIMES, -27 Oct 85) ..

Household Subsistence Level Rises Dramatically

(THE STAR, 5 Nov 85) ........00085

Contributions to Medical Aid To Increase

(Stephen Cranston; BUSINESS DAY, 4 Nov 85) ...... see

Details on Palmiet Pumped Storage Scheme Given

(John Yeld; THE ARGUS, 30 Oct 85)

-~d-

54

55

57

58

62

63

65

67

68

70

71

72

73

74

76

77

79

80



BRUMA LAKE DEVELOPMENT COSTS ASSESSED

JPRS“SSA-85=123

16 December 1985

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 1 Nov 85 p 13

[Text]

/12828
CSO:

The R250 million Bruma Lake
development which was an-
nounced yesterday has been de-
scribed by the chairman of the
Johannesburg Council’s man-
agement committee, Mr Fran-
cois Oberholzer, as “magnifi-
cent in concept” and is like-
ly.to be one of the most ambi-
tious and far-reaching projects
of the city’s centenary year.

The almost seven-hectare
lake (Emmarentia Dam is
4,5 ha and Zoo Lake 3,8 ha) will
be sited at the eastern entrance
to the city opposite Eastgate
shopping centre and will be
bordered by Broadway, Queen
Street, Ernest Oppenheimer
Avenue and parts of Marcia
Street to the north and south.

Launching the project, which
introduces a new water-linked
working and living concept to
Johannsburg, Mr’ Oberholzer
said at a press conference at-
tended by the | developers,.
Anglo American’ Properties
and Ozz Limited, that the
scheme incorporated
140 000 sq m of lakeside offices,
about 200 waterside houses, a
100-bedroom hotel, a 65-cottage
retirement village, restaurants,
a speciality shopping centre,
private and public clubs and
sports fields, as well as a rec-
reation area landscaped into a
series of ponds cascading from
one to the other in Archie Thor-
burn Park.

This area will contain a con-
tinuation of the centenary
walking trail.

3400/438

BOARDSAILING

When completed, between
5000 and 6000 people will be
either working or living in of-'
fices and lakeside homes, while’
the lake will be large enough
for canoeing, sailing and board-
sailing.

The lake, fed by the Jukskei
River (the southernmost tribu-
tary of the Limpopo River, ris-
ing at Ellis Park), will vary in
depth from 18m to 6m. The
riverside will be walled and the
base of the lake completely
waterproofed by a concrete co-
vered plastic lining. Flood-con-
trol sluices will keep the level
of the water constant.

A R500000, 13m statue of
George Harrison will be erect-
ed at the entrance at Settlers
Park.

Massive alterations will be
made to the existing roads, in-
cluding the partial closure of
Marcia Street, the widening of
Queen Street and the construc-
tion of a diamond interchange
at the junction of Queen and
Marcia Streets.

Costs include R11 million for
the lake, R5,5 million for re-
moving a cable to the north of
the lake, R3,5 million (of which
the city council’s share is
R1,5 million) for the roads sys-
tem, and R2 million for the re-
location of the Game shopping
outlet, which will be underwa-
ter when the project is .com-
pleted in a few years time.

67

SOUTH AFRICA



In their characteristic manner, the Mamprusi youth organised themselves,
came to the Bawku Police Station and threatened and harrassed the Police on
duty to the extent that they had to release the culprits unconditionally.
At the time of their release two Kusasi men were passing by on the main road
which is just in front of the Police station. The Mamprusi youth from the
Police Station, upon seeing the Kusasi men, pounced on them and mercilessly
beat them up leaving one badly injured. In the ensuing confusion, the
alleged Leader of the Mamprusi youth jumped into the impounded vehicle and
drove it away. We do not know how he got the key to the vehicle which was
supposed to be in the hands of the Police. While all this took place the
Police helplessly stood by.

That same Friday night some unknowm gunmen shot and killed a Busanga man
by name Hamidu Mumuni who is a personal friend. It cannot therefore be
true as speculated in certain quarters that the deceased's assailant was
a Kusasi man.

On Saturday 28th September, 1985, there were sporadic incidents of violence
by the Mamprusis, including a search of the Kola Houses owned by Kusasis.

Up to this time no serious efforts had been made by the authorities to avoid
the imminent clash. All these incidents, including threats that Mamprusis
would attack the Kusasis and burn dow Gingande (mainly a Kusasi township)
were reported to the Bawku District Secretary and the District Superintendant
of Police.

On Sunday 29th September, 1985, the Mamprusis were seen near Gingande where
the palace of the Bawku-Naba is situated. They were armed to the teeth.
They attacked the area at once. Before long a white Peugeot pickup with
people dressed in military uniform approached the chief's palace. Unknow
to the people in the palace that they were Mamprusis, these uniformed men
started shooting indiscriminately and set about burning the chief's palace.

Considering all the incidents mentioned above and the fact that the author-
ities were well aware of them one is at a loss as to why the authorities
did not immediately call for reinforcement when the situation was getting
out of hand.

Perhaps this lack of action by the authorities lends credence to earlier
assertions by the Mamprusis that they had convinced them to withhold any
intervention of the security agencies for three days so that they (the Mam-
prusis) would wipe out the Kusasis.

Over and over again, I, the Bawku-Naba and concerned citizens in the Bawku
district had expressed misgivings about the claims of the Civil Defence
Organisation (CDO) that they had brought peace to Bawku. ‘The CDO has suc-
ceeded in enabling the government to take certain measures which only
worsened the situation in the area. For instance it would have been better
to implement PNDC Law 75 which vested chieftaincy on the majority of the
people to the letter instead of concentrating on frivolities like land

cases, market stalls, the purchase of Dyna buses, whether certain people

were qualified to stay in low cost houses, and the abolition of youth associa-
tions.

22



COMMERCE, INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE ‘CATCH 22' BLUES

JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English 27 Oct 85 p 5

[Article by Angus Macmillan: "New Ways To Stir the Broth as SA Enters the

Cold"]

[Text]

AMID the greatest
financial uncertainty
in South Africa’s his-
tory, commerce and
industry have the
Catch 22 blues.

Most of SA’s foreign loan
sources have dried up and
domestic funds are at a pre-
mium; new financial instru-
ments need to be found or
companies will have to put
their prices up; foreign sup-
piers will continue selling to

;A importers, but credit will
be limited; growth can be
‘stimulated, but it will push
up inflation.

Abandoned

Several other points could
be included in this scenario,
but as they only add to the

eneral mood of pessimism,
is there much point in men-
tioning them?

The reality is that the
free-market philosophy has
been abandoned by the Gov-
ernment and the economy is
back in the chains of inter-
ventlonism, Some bankers
believe SA should never
have entered the tough free-
market world.

‘There are those like Roger
Grindy, Hill Samuel's cor-
porate banking chief in SA,
who belleve that merchant +
banking is being forced back
to Its roots — becoming de: |
signers again.

“He believes that the finan-
cial crunch that has all but
cut SA off from the world
has started a new ball-game
for both borrowers and lend-
ers in the domestic market. '

Right mix

“Lenders will put more
emphasis on development
projects like toll roads than
on city office blocks and eq-
uities. The pot is still the |
same size, it is merely a
question of stirring it differ-

ently y

“Borrowers, on the other
hand, will have to accept the
fact that finance costs will
cont! to be high and com-
prise a larger percentage of °
their total business costs
than would be the case in
many other countries,” :

The advice to beleagured
companies from corporate:
bankers is not to take any

‘risks and to concentrate on
matehin ted risks by 7
ing the right proportion -
of sharebolders’ Funds and
Joan funds,

Easier sald than done, but «
there are no other options. ©
Banks that were prepared to
carry companies a few: |
months ago are putting up ~
the shutters.

They are getting tougher . |
and more objective when it. *
comes to determining risk‘
and lending funds, just as:
most companies have been +
forced to adopt a cautious «
approach to planning.

,, last week of Au;

“ Uncertainty

According to Hill Samuel, ?

the most common problem

of its clients is uncertainty. :
They say they are adopting a"

wait and see attitude and are
not putting in new plant and
equipment.

Mr Grindy says: “Bust-
nesses can’t afford to take
risks. Uncovered forelgn-
currency positions have

: taught many the hard way
an

now we are being
flooded with rights issues.
“Balance shects will be-
come more conservative and
there will have to be a lot of
flexibility in risk manage-

‘ment. Companies doing in-

ternational trade need plen-
ty of advice.”

He estimates that SA ex-
jorters have lost about
:600-million in cancelled or-

ders since the Johannesbyrg
Stock Exchange closed in the
ist and the
rand was suspended — about
the amount needed to ser-

Vice the interest on SA’s
“ ghort-term foreign debt.

‘Exporters will have to de-

“vise fancy cash collectiny

jnise the or!

systems and di
if they are

gin of their go

; to weather the antl-SA

m.
Mr Grindy’s point about

* merchant banks going back

to their roots makes sense.
With offshore funds limited,
business will be looking to
the banks for new ways of

financing imports.

Converting foreign obliga-
‘tlons to rands, Counter-trade

65

a

{

or barter arrangements, new

: mechanisms for project
finance . .. there are several
possibilities,

: Proceeds

' It Is possible that com-

nies looking for project

‘ finance will even take this

# Flew: we want spat upa

factory, but can only pay you

‘from the proceeds of the
goods once we sell them.”

‘There is no doubt that if
SA ts to achieve growth, it
has to be a net importer of
capital. Without it, the rand,
inflation, interest rates and

gross domestic product
will suffer.

The short-term outlook
for most companies and the
economy as & whole ts bleak
as the rest of the world is not
interested in SA’s fundamen-

8.

Bleak :

SA’s foreign debt of
‘US$24-billion is about 20% of
gross national product com-
pared with Australia’s debt
of US$66-billion, or 33% of

- its GNP.

Although international
bankers are worried about
Australia’s debt, their con-

| cern is not fuelled by politi-,
cal chaos,

It does not really matter
what happens on the eco-
nomic front, political risk is}
what is influencing SA’?
foreign financial relations.



ECONOMISTS HOPE FOR LIMITED GROWTH

JPRS+SSA*85*123

16 December 1985

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 5 Nov 85 p 6

[Article by John Tilston]

[Text]

ESPITE increasingly
gloomy predictions for
the economy next year,
economists still believe
there will be growth. But much
of next year’s growth will be
limited to certain sectors of the
economy and there is little like-

lihood of consumers finding |

themselves better off.

All economic forecasts these
days must be taken with a liberal
inch of salt. Events of the last
wo months have turned econo-
mics into one of the riskiest
professions to practice.

So many variables, previously

. taken for granted, are impinging :
- on the economic arena that, as

one economist says: “A high de-
ree of risk is associated with
forecasting economic patterns in
the present circumstances.”
Vital issues that have a bearing
on the economic future of this
country are undecided. The prin-
cipal questions concern debt res-

cheduling, sanctions and interna- .

tional pressure — and the
weather.

Assumptions about these’ and
other developments are getting
gloomier by the week. There is no
doubt that there is a continuing
deterioration in both SA’s inter-
nal and external situation.

T.. government is not moving
decisively in any particular di-
rection, while foreign bankers
are increasingly uniting behind a

call for reform before participat-
ing in real negotiation on the debt
ue,

It now seems likely that SA
will make a unilateral decision
on the foreign debt problem. The
authorities will tighten the

’ “standstill” net and let the world

wait until there is far greater
room for economic policy man-
oeuvring in SA.

A wealth of forecasts have re-

cently been published. On the as-
sumption that their combined as-
sumptions will roughly
approximate reasonable assump-
tions for a “consensus” forecast,
the general outlook appears to be
as follows:
INFLATION: Just about every-
one has revised upwards the ex-
pected average rate of inflation
for next year. A simple average
of available forecasts is 15,5%.

Anumber of very recent devel-
opments have had a bearish im-
pact on sentiment. The still-weak
rand, the import surcharge, fur-
ther petrol price hikes and the
non-availability of foreign cap-
ital will all add fuel to the fire.

But another variable is threat-
ening. Some economists have ar-
gued that the spare capacity in
industry and weak demand Will

mitigate against further price in-
creases.

Others, like Barclays’ Johan
Cloete, and-Louis Geldenhuys, of

, George Huysamer and Co, argue

that the economy has become so
weak that there is doubt as to any
beneficial effect that tighter busi-
ness conditigns chn have on the
moderation of price increases.

58

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS“SSA+85*123
16 December 1985

Simeon Galore, member of the CC of the WPE and First Secretary of the WPE
Committee for the region. The exhibition depicts the accomplishments of Buno
province in the political, economic and social spheres and was later visited
by invited guests. Comrade Simeon meanwhile spearheaded a self-limited
campaign to collect harvest at the Deforman resettlement centre in Gumay
district in the same region. [Text] [Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in
English 31 Oct 85 p 1] /13104

ASSAB-HALEB ROAD PROJECT--Work on the Assab-Haleb road project, designed to
expedite maritime transport through the opening of various facilities on the
island, is progressng fast. The multi-million birr project is 80.5 kms long.
27 kms of which have already been built, its completion will greatly
facilitate the Maritime Transport Authority's plans for building a ship
maintenance depot, the building of boats and the construction of a maritime
training centre. Comrade Yousuf Ahmed, member of the CC of the WPE and
Minister of Transport and Communications, Sunday visited work on the project.
Work on the 15 kms of the 27kms of the stretch so far completed was described
as being the first venture of its kind. Comrade Tadesse Haile-Mariam, head of
the Assab-Haleb project, described the complex technical work involved and
also said only three months are needed to connect the 330 kms-wide island from
one end to the other. Comrade Yousuf said when addressing experts and workers
on Haleb island that the completion of the facilities there holds an important
place in the expansion of wide-ranging maritime transport activites under way
under the close scrutiny of the revolutionary leader. He said considerable
significance is thus attached to the Assab-Haleb road project. [Text] [Addis
Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 29 Oct 85 p 1] /13104

REYA DELEGATION RETURNS--A two-man delegation of the Revolutionary Ethiopia
Youth Association (REYA) headed by Comrade Demissie Haile, Head of the
Ideological Affairs of the Addis-Ababa WPE Committee, returned here Sunday
concluding a ten-day working visit to the Republic of Ireland and Northern
Ireland. Comrade Demissie said at a press confernce that the visit was
jointly organized by the World University Service, Ireland (WUS), the
International Union of Students and REYA to introduce and provide further
information to the Irish Republic on the progress of the Ethiopian Revolution,
the drought situation and the measures being taken to find a lasting solution
to it and the activities of the Ethiopian youth. During its vists the
delegation had talks with representatives of 10 universities in the Republic
of Ireland and with three others in Northern Ireland. It also held
discussions with officials of the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the
Minisry of Education. Comrade Demissie said that the delegation explained in
detail to the Irish public, particulary to the university community, the gains
of the revolution and the positive achievements made in the rehabilitation
programme. The leader of the delegation said the visit has paved the way for
developing fruitful ties between the Ethiopian and Irish youth. [Text]

[Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 29 Oct 85 p 1] /13104

cso: 3400/499

15



SA's history as a history of black
suffering, necessitating liber-
ation.

To believe that political and so-
clo-economic “Band-aid” or the
addressing of mere symptoms
will alleviate deep-rooted causes,
is to ignore this very important

fact.

Black discontent and protest
span the decades since Union.”
Some of the policy decisions giv-
ing rise to black dissatisfaction ‘
date back many years, like the

Native Land Act of 1913, the Na- .

tive Urban Areas Act of 1923, pass
laws and job reservation, not to
mention the idea, voiced in the

'20s, that blacks are temporary .

sojourners in urban areas.
Others are of a more recent
* origin, for instance the National
States Citizenship Act of 1970.
Collectively, these decisions not
only eroded black hopes for a
better deal, but aggravated dis-

content since Union. Blacks ex- ©

perienced these decisions as
methods by which they were ex-
cluded, and sometimes even ex-
led, from important avenues
wards social, economic and
political development.

‘The furnace of black discontent |

kept on burning. On many occa-
sions it exploded with devastating
effect, as at Sharpeville in the '60s
and Soweto in the 70s,

‘On September 3 1984, it erupted ‘

like a volcano. And during all the

years since Jabavu's speech, the -

voice of black reason was not seri-
ously listened to.

Jabavu's voice of reason was
followed by many others — the
Luthulis, the Buthelezis, the Mabi-
letsas, to mention but a few. Some
of these voices were deliberately
smothered, Others
to a loss of hope.
the country.

In this respect it has to be sald:
no one fs born a radical. Political-
ly-conscious people, moreover, do
not radicalise in the void or, gen-
erally speaking, because of evil
intentions,

One is not always popular for
making such a statement; but I

have no hesitation in saying that .

circumstances existing in our

country and policy decisions tak- &

en over the past decades facilitat-

ed the radical stances taken by
\

blacks,

Will the judgment of future
‘commentators on events over the
next 65 years be as harsh? Are we
stil victims ofa situation in which

ices of reason
foieces of are not being lis-

Ina certain sense it seems as if ‘|

w silent due
lany others left *

we are not in a position to break ?

1 the deadlock. Present-day SA re- °

sembles, to some extent, an epli- +
sode I once witnessed as a child in ;
the Karoo.:Two scorpions were ;
engaged in a bitter fight for the ;
same piece of turf. Both got stung, «
ending up in a state of paralysis. :.

i

W. are, so it seems on the sur-
face, intent on paralysing one an-

other — if not with petrol bombs -
and teargas canisters, then with :
highly emotional slogans, unreal- *
istic claims and unyielding atti-:;
ludes. “

Signs of a breakdown in com- :
munal hope are moreover'emerg-
ing. If these signs take on a more {
cohesive and articulated form, SA .
and all her people will be in serl- :
ous trouble, for communal hope is .
the generator of constructive and ;
ve toclely stripped of hope for

soc! rips for °
the future b a saclety on the road +
towards self-destruction.
However, and in spite of pre-
ceding arguments, I am not of the
opinion that candles of hope don't
still burn in our society. What has
happened in SA has, for the first

time in our history, given rise to a

fairly general consensus, across

party pout of culture, colour and
politics, that we cannot pro-

Peed along the ways of the past.

It is utter nonsense to claim

~ that attitudes have not changed
for the better among a majority of
whites, or that they are still not.
prepared to listen fo the voice of

lack reason. .

Among many whites, and espe-
cially among leaders and opinion-
makers, a sincere desire for
reconciliation exists. These
whites admit the mistakes and in-
justices of the past and are moti-

; vated to rectify injustices in co- .

operation with blacks. , ‘ i

Many whites, including Afri:
kaners and supporters of the
National Party, are jared to
‘stand up and be counted for the «

* ideal of socio-economic and politi-''
* eal justice, and a sharing of power |
with fellow-black South Africans. ;

j ,,Freed from the chains of the /
ideology of apartheid and separ-
: ate development, they are in fa- i
vour of dismantling the structural *
and statutory embodiments of this *
ideology. They have heard the °
s-volce of black reason, +
"_ This brings me to another ques- ‘
tion: are blacks listening to the {
} voice of white reason?

32

have! 4

: they become the Victims of exact-7
ly the same mentality and atti-

* tude they persistently, and with:

good reason, accuse their white

. compatriots of?

I admit, given the long history
of black suffering and the fact
that many black leaders are de-
tained and behind bars, it is not
that easy for them to hear the
voice of white reason, not to men-
tlon the effort it must take for
blacks to continue speaking in a
voice of reason, .

I have to concede that the ball
of reconciliation, on the basis of
negotiation and justice, rests pri-
marily in the court of the privi-
leged white community and its
political, business, church and
community leadership. But can

» we make any headway if some of

- sion I sometimes ge'

the most important partners to
the game are reluctant to play? |

Being committed to reconcilia-
tion and the idea of a just society
based on the recognition of the
rights of all South Africans, I am
extremely worried by the impres-

that impor-

. tant members of the South Afri- .

can leadership elite are not
serious about the necessity for :
reconciliation. :

For strategic reasons, and in
the hope that It will accelerate the
Pace of reform, many of the criti- .
cisms by blacks against reform
initiatives of recent years are
coined in a language which re-
flects not only their deep-rooted
frustration, but also contributes to
the mood that the prospects for
‘negotiation and reconciliation are
very poor, .

A. far as it is possible for some-
one not at the receiving end of
unjust policies to understand the
reasons for this strategy, I do take
these criticisms seriously. But
what worries me is the fact that
many South Africans understand
them as an unequivocal “no” to -

* the idea of reconciliation.

Some of the claims made by -.

* fellow-South Africans are coun-.

ter-productive to reconciliation.
For instance, that it is not neces-
sary to negotiate, for a take-over
of power by blacks is imminent,
- When one hears this, one has to
wonder whether those making it
are really serious about peace,
justice and reconciliation.

The same holds for those whites
intent on preserving white dom!-
nation. Seen from a moral point of



NEW COLLEGE TO OPEN DOORS

JPRS*SSA*85*123

16 December 1985

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 14 Nov 85 p 10

[Text]

19274
cso:

ALL Saints, the first col-
lege to be established ex-
clusively for the educa-
tion of 16 to 19-year olds,
‘opens to its first 100 stu-
dents in January next
year, it was announced
yesterday.

A statement said the
college at Bisho near
King William’s Town is
being built with a R10-
million grant from Anglo
American and De Beer’s
Chairmen’s Fund.

3400/472

Three quarters of the
students will be boarders
at All Saints, which will
accommodate 250 Black
and White boys and girls
when it reaches full com-
plement in 1987, said Mr
Richard Todd, director of
the Bisho Private College
Trust (responsible for es-
tablishing All Saints).

“The private sector —

52

which is also’ supporting
All Saints with scholar-
ships for many of the stu-
dents starting there next
year — see senior colleges
as a practical response to
the situation facing South
Africa today where so
much good talent is being
lost because of inferior
education,” he said. —
Sapa.

SOUTH AFRICA



JPRS*SSA*85=123
16 December 1985

GUANA

INCREASED TIMBER EXPORTS, DECREASED PROFITS BRING PROBE CALLS

London TALKING DRUMS in English 11 Nov 85 p 24

[Text]

19274
cso:

The Ghana Timber Association (GTA) has
called for a thorough investigation into the
declining returns in revenue in spite of the
ever-increasing volumes of timber exports.

The GTA said it was concerned about the
statement made by Mr Ato Ahwoi, Secretary-
in-Charge of the National Revenue Secretariat
to the effect that the volume of export of timber
and timber products for the period between
January and June this year alone was equal to
that of the whole of 1984 but the revenue
showed a sharp disparity compared with that
of 1985 falling to almost half the revenue for
the same quantity in 1984.

According to the GTA at this time when
huge amounts of hard currency was being
pumped into the timber industry to make it
viable, efforts should be made to ensure
maximum returns from timber export, devoid
of malpractices.

Speaking at a press briefing in Kumasi in
reaction to Mr Ahwoi’s statement, Nana Yaw
Owusu, national president of GTA, attributed
the present state of affairs to lack of co-
ordination and the absence of efficient
monitoring systems in respect of timber
processing and exports.

3400/480

18

The GTA has urged the utilisation section of
the Forestry Department that keeps records of
timber felled to extend its activities to cover
the monitoring of processing and sale of
timber.

GTA National President Nana Owusu
contended that an effective monitoring system
would reduce the present spate of smuggling
and other malpractices in the timber trade and
stressed the need for all agencies connected
with the industry, particularly the Ghana
Timber Marketing Board, to assist in its
speedy resuscitation as envisaged under the
Economic Recovery Programme.

Nana Owusu gave figures to support his
claims and said the current fall in the
international prices of logs and wood products
is only five per cent and the fluctuation of
exchange rates of importing countries which
are just marginal could not be said to have
affected the earnings drastically as is the case
now.

The GTA stated that in January 1979, average
yearly earnings from the timber export sector
was US$76 million.

However, there has been a steady fall from
US$50.9 million in 1979 to the extent that last
year’s timber exports fetched the nation only
US$22 million.



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR OPENS FINANCIAL MAIL INVESTMENT MEET
Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 7

[Article by Lesley Lambert]

[Text ] RESERVE Bank ital inflows in other forms. It is for
overnor Ger- this reason that certain arms of debt
rd de — amounting to about $10,3bn — has

said fe Kock hs. een left ‘out of the net’.
wecent trials and “Only a portion of this debt fell due
tribulations, 1986 | for repay ent in 1986, and it was

y
should be a year maturing anne oe teal mele vould be.
of economic up: , rolled-over or replaced by new facili-
swing, moderate ties.”

‘Although the need to maintain a

‘growth and irfcreased employ-
substantial current account surplus

tment.
Opening the Financial Mail In- ; to enable debt repayment would re-
: yestment Conference with this touch < strict economic growth, meaning
of optimism, De Kock told delegates fewer goods available in SA for public
that the expected upswing would be 7 and private investment and consump-
accompanied by a smaller but sus- | tion, De Kock said:
tained surplus on the current account OFor the time being there was
of the balance of payment and only enough surplus capacity and unem-
* slight demand pressure on prices. ployment in the economy to permit a
7 he bad news ras that the monster marked economle, recovery, reithout
inflation was yet to be conquered al pressu ports, clally
‘the rate of yeal economic rowth if the depreciated exchange rate of
\ would not be as high as forecast under the rand was taken into account.
. more favourable circumstances. CiEven if 8A’s longer-term economic
Although in the short-term the development was constrained by the
choice of monetary policy implied a . , Reed to maintain a large current
shift from fightin inflation to pro- , account surplus, there would still be
: moting growth and employment, the “eyclical upward and downward
. curbing of inflation remained high on , Phases in the economy. .
the priority list. Fears expressed by _ The net outflow of capital was like
some that the rate of inflation might ly to decline because, with or without
rise to between 20% and 30% were a standstill, a rise in imports would
totally unfounded, tend to be financed to some extent by
De Kock referred to the issue of . overseas suppliers’ credits or other
economic sanctions only in passing. credits.
_ He stressed that the debt negotia- ‘The policy of stringent monetary
tions now underway were not being and fiscal discipline applied during
approached as a “winding down” . the past year had greatly strength-
exercise, but rather as an attempt to the ability of the economy to
pnermalise” SA’s relations with withstand the pre abnormal pres-
foreign finan
fore ign cial institutions and "At the same time it ha id created
“We are looking forward to a con- scope for investment and consump-
tinuation of ti " tion spending to rise in the period
rade financing and cap ahead Prithout pagting excessive pres-
sure on either ptices or imports.

85



IPRS“SSA-85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

POLITICAL SCIENTIST ANALYZES ANC STRATEGY FOR REVOLUTION

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 10 Nov 85 p 16

[Article by John MacLennan]

[Text]

IN THE view of political
scientist Dr Simon
Baynham, the African
National Congress is not
being run by just another
bunch of hoodlums. They
are guided by strategies
enunciated by Marx,
improved by Mao and
perfected by Ho Chi Minh.

Marxism uses the so-called
industrial proletariat as the
agent of revolution and Mao
adapted this strategy to one of.
rural guerilla warfare in
which the countryside became
a no-go area to the security
forces.

Towns and cities were
surrounded and cut off before his:
forces launched a conventional }
offensive. a

The ANC is adapting this:
theory even further to cope with :
the realities of our hybrid country:!
— a Third World state containing }
a highly industrial, Western |
system.

The revolution which the ANC:
is fomenting — and Dr Baynham
makes the point that everything |
the banned organisation has said
since it took up its armed strug- ,
gle shows that it supports Mao's”
strategy — has three classic!
phases which could overlap at’!
times. |

In the first phase it will infil- |
trate political cadres to politicise |
and mobilise people by using |

{local issues ‘to their own advan-~

tage.

If township dwellers have been ‘
harassed by police, for example,
they will attempt to make
political capital of it on the lines,
say, of undermining black
policemen. The propaganda line ;
might be: “These police are our
people. They are our colour. But ”
they are not helping us. They are
‘only stooges of the Government.”

‘ Various other channels will in-
clude mobilising school children,
using front men and organisations

{_ “Revolutionary groups are not
in the business of just setting up

; front organisations, but also pene-

‘ trating and trying to take over
groups that are still legal and
which have roughly identical
aims. Some of the affiliates of the
! UDF, for example, have ideolo- ;
gies indistinguishable from the

» ANC

For this reason the ANC sees

:the UDF as a major tool to pro-
mote its aims because the UDF
affiliates represent such
disparate groups as workers,

ustudents, churches and
community or social welfare

: associations.

Using all these methods they
‘will ergate a feeling of burning
injustice against the system.
| .Phast Two is the creation of
,@ guerilla infrastructure and an:
ternative government system.
They will kill and attack po- +
‘licemen and community
‘councillors, undermine all

39

Tauthority and move into the~
|vacuum to set up their own!
cstructures run by people
jacceptable to the community.
“This is what we have seen in the
last nine months.”

Phase Three is the culmination
and involyes a co-ordinated and
all-out offensive against authori-
ties with the aim of seizing

: political power — a straight
; confrontation with the full might
of the State.

| The ANC’s core strategy here
{will be to stretch the security
forces and goad the authorities
into over-reaction.

They will do this by engaging

“the State in a protracted war of ”
attrition and attempt to wear out |
the security forces in a long cam-

i paign of demonstrations, riots,
bombings and shootings.
1. “The idea is to gain benefits +
from the mistakes of the ‘enemy’
, — the security forces — and then ;
politicise the population to an ex ;
tent not previously possible by?
showing them the ‘true face of
repression’. They will work at the
steady demoralisation of the
security forces. Every time
security forces over-react it will
be a victory for the ANC because
the authorities will feel they are
losing the war.

"““at stake here are not the clas-

sical military: objectives, such as
taking a hili or a town, but the -
hearts and the minds of the
population.” ©

‘This revolutionary strategy has
its Achilles heel.



DETAILS ON PALMIET PUMPED STORAGE SCHEME GIVEN

Cape Town THE ARGUS in English 30 Oct 85 p 7

[Article by John Yeld].

[Text]

CONSTRUCTION of
the giant Palmiet
Pumped Storage
Scheme in the ecologi-
cally-sensitive Kogel-
berg mountains near
Grabouw is proceeding
under strict environ-
mental monitoring.

The R254-million joint Es-
com/Department of Water
Affairs project is the third

pumped storage scheme in
the country and will add 400

megawatts of power to the »

national grid when it is
commissioned in 1987/88.
The scheme will also aug-
ment Cape Town’s water sup-
ply by about 30 million cubic
metres anually. A concrete ca-
nal cut through a watershed
will link the new Rockview
reservoir in the Palmiet river
system with the two Steenbras

dams. At present the dams hold;
approximately 60 million cubic

metres of water when full.

In a pumped storage scheme
the power station utilises gra-

vity-fed water from an upper ‘

reservoir to generate electric-

ity during peak periods and‘

then uses the surplus of elec-
tricity available during off-
peak periods to return the
same water to the reservoir for
re-use.

Before the construction of
the Palmiet scheme an inde-
pendent consultant was ap-
pointed to analyse and survey
the area and an environmental
impact control plan was drawn
up to incorporate control gui-
delines into all construction
activities. ~* .

Resident environmental ‘con- .
trol: officer Miss Megan Ander-
son said that although the civil
contractors were “contractual-
ly bound” to abide by the con-*
trol plan, they were neverthe-
less being “very amenable and
interested” in the plan.

Policing

* Most of her present work
consists of “policing” to ensure
that workers do not move be-
yond restricted areas, that
there is no poaching or picking
of flowers, checking on water
quality and ensuring proper re-
luse removal.

Major environmental inputs.
of the project include:

@ Re-siting the 40-metre high
concrete surge tank so as to
lessen its visual impact;

@ Preventing road access to *
the very sensitive Wolwekloof
where water is piped for the’

roject. Labourers brought in”
Hf tons of concrete by hand for
the construction of a weir more
‘than one kilometre long.

80

JPRS*SSA+85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA



PROSPECT OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY SEEN

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 12 Nov 85 p 25

[Text]

/12828
CSO:

DESPITE its foreign debt
and domestic social prob-
lems and the fact that ex-
ports could come under
pressure because of hard-
ening attitudes towards
the country, South Africa
is still poised for an econ-
omic recovery says the la-
test Standard Bank Re-
view.

Prospects are for a con-
tinued large surplus on
current account through-
out next year, still lower
short-term interest rates
and a further monetary
and fiscal stimulation in
the near term, the review
states.

It points out however
that the decline in the
rand since July has given *
rise to new inflationary |
pressures. The fact too

, that impending recovery
. of domestic economic ac-
tivity will at least partially ,
be attributable to easier '

3400/438

.. countries will have to find .
alternative

and cheaper credit, as
well as higher Govern-
ment spending, _re-in-
forces expectations of
higher inflation in future.

The move towards pro-
tectionism in the United
States and the weakening
dollar as a result of the
pressures of the Group
Five accord, have some
implications for South
African foreign trade,
says the review.

If these factors cause
exports to the United
States from Europe and
Japan to decline, these

or expand
markets for their prod-
ucts, In these circum-
stances no customer is
likely to ‘be turned away
without very strong coer-
cive pressures to the con-
trary.

But regarding exports
from South Africa there is

57

JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

* reason for concern the re-

view warns.

Commodity prices have .
not reacted to the decline
of the dollar as might
have been expected and
this appears to be an ex-
tension of longer-standing
under-performance, par-
ticularly when commodity
prices are viewed against
backdrop of the strong
US recovery since early
1983.

For example, the per-
formance of the gold
price has been disappoint-
ing which undoubtedly is
attributable to low infla-
tion and continued high

: real interest rates in in-

dustrial countries.

The review feels that
with this economic scen-
ario likely to continue
into 1986, South Africa
cannot realistically expect
a major push from the
gold price.



@ Re-routing a road to the
new Rockview reservoir. The
four-kilometre longer road fol-°

- lows the natural contours and
* minimises ecological damage;

@ Rehabilitating the verges
of the road and future rehabili-
tation of areas like that above
buried pipelines; ‘

@ Stacking valuable topsoil
(containing a large seed re-_

serve) which was removed
from disturbed areas and re-
placing it after construction is
inished. 3;

A group of conservationists
and journalists, including rep
resentatives from the Wildlife
Society, the Cape Department
of Nature and Environmental
Conservation and the Southern
African Nature Foundation,

were taken around the site by
Escom officials recently.

Mr Ian Macdonald, chairman
of the local branch of the Wild-
life Society and reseacher at -
the University of Cape Town’s
Percy FitzPatrick Institute of
African Ornithology, said the
society was “highly encour-
aged” by the “obvious concern”

with which Escom and the De-
partment of Water Affairs
viewed the environmental im-
pact of the scheme.

'. “However, we have certain
reservations about the extent
to which the environmental im-
pact controls are being moni-
lored and we would like to see
this improved in the future.”

PALMIET PUMP STORAGE SCHEME
4 Junction ancl betwean Steenbres Upper Reserve end the Rock.

2 Reckviow Reservek,

2 Tunnel In which water will flew dawn te Power Station.
‘4 Power Stetion,

5 Wall of Kogetberg Dam ocross the Pariniet River.

The site of the
Palmiet Storage
Scheme
between Steen-
berg Upper Res-
ervoir and Ko-
gelberg Dam.

/12828
CSO: 3400/438

81



TELEVISION, VCR PRICES RISE

JPRSSSA*85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 12 Nov 85 p 1

[Article by Cherilyn Ireton]

[Text] THE price of television sets will have

/13104
cso:

risen 115% in two years when new stock
hits the shelves in January.

Manufacturers are warning consum-
ers to expect to pay at least R2 000 for a
51cm colour set next year.

Sets with larger screens and models
boasting special features, like remote
control, will cost much more.

The new year will also bring increases
in the cost of video cassette recorders
(VCRs) unless the surcharge on imported
Boods falls away or there is a dramatic
increase in the value of the rand, says
National Panasonic GM Terry Millar.

This increase will be about 12% if the
rand holds at the present rate.

VCR prices have risen about 150% in’

the past two years.

“The increases have been the result of
the multiplying effect of excise. duties,
surcharges and the poor rand value,”
says Millar, adding that a VCR which
sold for R799 two years ago now retails
at R1 999. .

3400/481

F “Industry figures show the prices of
basic 5icm television sets have risen
; 87% since January 1984 and officials say
these will rise by another 28% by next

year.

‘Similarly, 67cm sets, trading at prices
85% above the retail figures registered

two years ago, will rise by at least an-
other 15% by the time Christmas stock is
off the shelves.

Millar says the latest increases will
bring some compensation for manufac-
_ turers who have been battered by falling
volumes and reduced turnover. .

He does not believe higher prices will
scare away buyers but says there will be.
a move to small screens .

. He also predicts a boost in television
rentals as sets become more expensive.

“People who buy on hire purchase
have to pay off their sets over 24 months.
Rental companies write off TV sets over
a much longer period, allowing them to

offer lower rates.”

116



JPRS~SSA"85~123
16 December 1985

GEMS CACHE--Divers working for the State Alluvial Diggings off the Richters-
veld earlier this year discovered one of the richest diamond caches yet found
in South Africa -- a hidden gulley with R1000000 worth of gems. The discovery,
which was never officially disclosed by the State, set tongues wagging among
miners along the West Coast where large numbers of diamonds, washed down by
the Orange River, have been deposited on the sea ped. The divers found a
closed gulley, part of a system of underwater channels and potholes which
often hold diamonds, in the sea between Oranjemund and Port Nolloth and
pulled out 3000 carats in four working days. University of Cape Town geo-
logist Dr Mike Bremner, who reported on the treasure find recently, says it
was an "exceptional one" in the history of sea mining. The diamonds were
part of an accumulation of rich alluvial deposits. Estimates undertaken on
the Kimberley mine indicated that 200 tons of diamonds were carried off this
way before men discovered the Kimberley pipe. [Text] [Johannesburg THE STAR
in English 25 Oct 85 p 7] /12828

99-YEAR LEASEHOLD SCHEME~-Only 38000 houses have been sold under the 99 year
leasehold scheme throughout the country since the mass sale was introduced
by the Government three years ago. Addressing a Press conference held in
Daveyton, Benoni yesterday, Mr Tom Boya, the vice president of the Urban
Councils Association of South Africa (Ucasa) who is the mayor of Daveyton
said, "266000 out of 520000 houses throughout the country had been surveyed
for selling under the 99-year leasehold scheme. The conference was called
by Ucasa following a meeting they held with the Minister of Constitutional
Development and Planning, Mr Chris Heunis, three weeks ago in Pretoria to
discuss the housing sale scheme. Mr Boya said the delay in selling the houses
was caused by the surveying being not completed by the government. Out of
299 black townships, only 48 did not qualify under the 99-year leasehold
scheme and Ucasa and the Government were working round the clock to have
these townships qualifying under this scheme. On the question of the
selling price of the houses, Mr Boya said it was up to councillors to deter-
mine the selling price of the houses in their townships according to a
formula drawn by the National Housing Commission. [Text] [Johannesburg
SOWETAN in English 31 Oct 85 p 1] /12828

NEW TRADE CENTRE--TEREXKO, holding company for Jurgens Caravans, will hold
a world trade centre at Jurgens Park, new Jan Smuts Airport. This follows
South Africa's admission to the World Trade centre Association this week.
Terexko chairman Neels Swart says work on the first phase of the centre will
start in the second quarter of next year and be completed by mid-1987.

Stage one of the first phase of the project will include permanent exhibition
areas for manufactureres, a commodities exchange and offices for brokers,
clearing agents and others. Stage two will involve a 450-room five-star
hote. Cost of stage one is estimated at $30-million and of the completed
first phase R250-million. The second phase will involve expansion of the
hotel and more office blocks. Terexko willput up some of the money and
arrange financial backing from institutions for the balance. Mr Swart

says the World Trade Centre Association is apolitical and South Africa
cannot be excluded for political reasons.

119



ALCOHOL-BASED FUEL SAID POSSIBLE IN 7-10 YEARS

Blantyre DAILY TIMES in English 10 Oct 85 p 4

[Editorial by Grover Mzumara:

[Excerpt]

19274
cso:

3400/479

LIQUID Fuel Planning was one of the three subjects
discussed at a one-day ‘Malawi’s Energy Policy Plan-
ning’ meeting held at the Polytechnic in Blantyre last
Saturday. The other two topics where experts drawn
from the Government, University, Escom, Ethanol
and the Malawi Bureau of Standards shared ideas were
‘Malawi Future Requirement of Electrical Energy’
and ‘Some aspects of the Energy Situation in Malawi.’

Presenting a paper on Liquid Fuel Planning, a
spokesman from Ethanol company said that the object
of the paper was to show that a reasonable and achie-
vable plan for Malawi’s liquid fuel “self-sufficiency”
could be realised in the medium term (7-10 years).
The plan draws on actual achievements in other coun-
tries and is therefore technically sound, economically
attractive and can readily be financed, the spokesman
stated.

The spokesman told fellow experts that the liquid
fuel market in Malawi was relatively small that is one
sixth that of Zimbabwe and one third that of Zambia
and, thus more easily attainable for replacement from
an agricultural base. He said that a sugar estate twice
the size of Dwangwa could produce sufficient ‘liquid
fuel for self-sufficiency in Malawi. Of all the options
currently available, ethanol is most attractive, techni-
cally, economically and financially. It also has the
broadest base of raw material options (sugar, starch,
cellulose base crops) and is most suited to an agricul-
tural economy such as Malawi, he said.

26

JPRS“S8A~85~173
16 December 1985

MALAWI

"Big Interest in Alcohol~based Fuel Energy"]



ican people to tackle the drought problem in Revol utionary Ethio-
pia as a political tool and is violating the nation’s bo.tder by being
party to a political crime . involving the airlift of thousands of
fellow Ethiopians from Sudan to Israel.

This is not the first time that Reagan Administration has

unveiled its policy. of war-mongering and interference, ‘he present
US administration is known for its hatred of popular muwvements,
anywhere in the world, that seek to bring about the realization
_ Of social justice, equality and genuine freedom. One needs: only to
“refer to the whole series of plots and intrigues masterminded by
‘the most Teactionary imperialist circle aimed at undermining the
-fevolutionary process in Africa, Asia and Latin America.’ Wasnt

it Mr. Reagan who gave the go-ahead signal for the US invasion

* of Grenada —~ a very small country in Central America — simply
. because the people of Grenada’ wanted tobe master of their
destiny? How about Washington’s support to the apartheid reginie
in South Africa — completely discredited in the eyes of the internat
ional community? Ironically enough, the Reagan Administration
qualifies Pretoria as a “strategic ally”; which policy represents an
Open contempt for the most elemental notions of responsibility to
fight a system, which has been categorized by the United Nations
as a crime against humanity, that is to say’ apartheid.

The present US administraton advocates the discredited policy
of so-called constructive ° engagement with racist South Africa,
which is nothing but an engagement for the upkeep of a tyrannical
regime perpetuating human degradation. Has the pursuit of - such
policy brought any nearer the termination of Apartheid oppression
and murder in southern Africa? Far from it. The world is today
witnessing one of the worst forms of denial of fundamental human
rights and freedoms in South Africa under the blood-thirsty Botha
legime. It is this glaring paradox of our time and related anomal-
ies that President Reagan should | condemn outright instead of
indulging in hypocritical acts of pretending to champion the. cause
of peace and progress in the world. ‘

The Ethiopian Revolution itself has been the target of imperi-
alist conspiracy which continues right to the present moment.
Whereas it remains the firm resolve of the Eghiopian’” masses and,



POLITICAL GRAFFITI FLOURISHING IN CAPE TOWN, SOWETO

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 10 Nov 85 p

[Article by Chris Whitfield and John Qwelane]

[Text]

THE writing is on the wall for’
South Africa. ;

At least that is what graffiti

writers in Cape Town and Soweto _

seem to think.

In Cape Town, there is a
splurge of graffiti in almost every -
suburb and train station. :

“You ANC nothing yet,” com-
muters are warned as they peer *
out of tran windows.

“Purple people unite,” urges a
spray-painted wall near the city
centre after the introduction of
the police’s anti-riot water-can-
non, which sprays purple dye on ,
its victims.

“Throw well, throw Shell,” goes
the graffiti in the townships. $
“1000 detained — 23999999 to
go,” commented an anonymous -
activist on a recently white- ;
washed city wall. 4

Even holiday-makers driving «
along the scenic Low Level Road
to Clifton’s famous beaches are

. not spared. First they are told, in
letters nearly a metre high, that ,
“The Germans said they didn’t
know.” Seconds later another slo-
gan: “Will you say the same?”

But even graffiti do not seem -

, to be immune from censorship.

* Walls are repainted soon after the
slogans appear, but it is not long
before the choice spots — usually
a large white wall — again be- ;
come the victim of the graffiti ar-
tists’ spray cans,

An Oranjezicht woman, who
woke to find “1400 detained”
painted in red across her gar- :
den wall, said she would be leav-
ing the graffiti: “So that when the °
revolution comes they will leave ’

19274

cso: 3400/471

me alone.” * .

A few days later somebody had
added “Not enough” below the
original slogan.

Some of the graffiti are elabo-

rate — the artists having made .
stencils to facilitate their work. ,

Obviously their artistry is not uni-
versally popular. A letter-writer
to a local knock-and-drop news-
paper castigated the editor for
publicising their “stupid scrib-
les”.

“Their so-called political
thoughts should be kept in the tra-
ditional homes of graffiti — the
toilet.”

Graffiti is also flourishing in ,
* Soweto, but is markedly different

from that in Cape Town.
_ The writers seem to have
; ample time and enormous re-

serves of energy because their :

’ work is “published” throughout
the whole of Soweto.

. , The dislike for the armed

“ forces and support for insurgency
is amply demonstrated in the in-

‘. seription, “No to conscription, yes

” to guerilla warfare”, which has
been spray-painted on a Govern-
ment-owned wall.

, Some of those ignoring the con-

} sumer boycott have learnt the

hard way. Women found with gro- *

ceries bought in town have been
made to eat raw meat and raw
: fish, drink whole bottles of cook-

y ing oil (in the townships common- ,

; ly called “fish oil”), and have also
{ been made to eat the washing
“’ powder they were found carrying,

A message scrawled on one “

wall sounds a clear warning:
“Don’t buy in town — avoid drink-

41

16

JPRS-SSA“85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

, ing fish oil or eating soap pow-
der”.

A postscript says: “The gun

that kills your child comes from *

,, your pocket.”

The wall scribes of Soweto see
the situation from a slightly dif-

‘ferent perspective to the State
President. While Mr Botha warns '
people against contacts with the ©
ANC, a message scrawled on a °

' township wall reads: “Watch out,

‘ Botha, Tambo will be reclaiming
the land soon”.

; The Minister of Defence, Gen- *

‘eral Magnus Malan, also has a
“Jetter” in the wall mailbag:
“Forward Freedom — Malan Be-

ware”,

<x And then what is probably the
longest single message in the
townships, scrawled across sever-
al metres of wall: “Every new act
of tyranny and suppression mere-
ly betrays the weakness of the
Government, The future is ours.”

While hundreds of slogans in

' townships across the Reef scream
support for Nelson Mandela and
the ANC as well as Azapo and

" the UDF, there is one in Jabulani
which attacks Chief Gatsha Buth-
elezi’s organisation: “ANC unites,
Inkatha kills”.

*” And in complete defiance, on a
supermarket in Dube: “We the
youth will not allow the whites to

| sh.. on us.”

‘ ‘The owner of the shop used to
remove the writing every time he
arrived to open for business. Not

' any more, because a message left
for him on the steel door tells him
simply: “You erase, we burn.”



JPRS“SSA*85°123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA .
PRESIDENT REAGAN'S U.N. STATEMENTS REJECTED
Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 1 Nov 85 p 2
[Editorial: "Hands Off Ethiopia!"]
{Text ] “Socialist Ethiopia has denounced the policy of interference

and aggression pursued by the Reagan Adrninistration. A statement
‘issued Wednesday by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Socialist
Ethiopia said that President Reagan’s recent statement before the
UN General ‘Assembly meeting has made it clearer than ever before
that the present US administration is intensifying its policy of inter-
ference and aggression. , '

“The statement rightly noted that President Reagan’s bellicose
policy has been laid bare by a “number of developments. Citing a
few of these, the Foreign Ministry statement. referred to Mr. Rea-
gan’s declaration of war on the people of Nicaragua, his muffling
of the popular struggle in El Salvador, the US invasion of Grenada,
Washington’s support to the fascist regismes in Chile, South Africa
as well as, delaying Namibia’s ‘decolonization . and fanning the
problem in the Middle Hast. © - :

With particular reference to President Reagan’s hostile refe,
‘rence to five revolutionary countries including Ethiopia, the state
ment said this is to be ejected s since it not only challenges the right
‘of peoples to choose their own destiny but is also tantamount to
endorsing oppression and exploitation. As regards the Horn of:
Africa, it further noted that President Reagan is creating favourable’
conditions for terrorists. and. expansionists by © establishing new
military bases which threaten world peace and s. tability. Besides,
the Foreign Ministry statement pointed out, the present US admin-
‘jstratioll i8"usiig' the humanitarian: aid'being provicled by the Amer-



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

SOWETO DEATH TOLL RISES

Johannesburg SOWETAN in English 15 Nov 85 p 2

[Article by Sy Makaringe]

[Text] FIVE imore’ people, in-
cluding a 29-year-old

_ Orlando East woman,

+ were killed in separate
incidents of violence in‘

i Soweto this week:
—bringing the death
toll since last Friday 16;
18.

Colonel James Beeslaar,:
criminal investigation!
officer of the Soweto}
Police, said yesterday;
that two of those killed}
were knife victims,”
while the third, a 45-)

- year-old man, was!
found with: a bullet:
wound in his left arm,
in sSenaoane on Sun!

He ‘aid th 29-year- old,
Orlando East woman!
died instantly after ai
man had stoned her

* The motive for the Kill]

: ing has not yet been es-

\ tablished by the police.

A 32-year-old man died}
in Zone 2, Diepkloof,:

| after he was assaulted |

® with kieries. No arrests}

> have been made in this'
case.

Robbery

In one of the two cases:
“of armed robbery re-
+ ported to the police:

19274
cso: 3400/469

yesterday, anem-
ployee of the. SABC,
was robbed of his
R25 000 German-
made mini-bus in Or-
Jando West on Wed-
nesday night.

The 36-year-old nian,
who was not named,
was stopped by four
men travelling in a
Ford Cortina, held at
gunpoint and. robbed
of his vehicle. No ar-
rests have been made.

In what is believed to be
the continuing wave of
faction fighting, a 47-
year-old Dube Hostel
inmate narrowly es-
caped death when a
shot was fired at him
through the window of
his dormitory. The
bullet grazed a part be-
low his left eye.

This was in one of the
three cases of at-
tempted murder re-
ported to the police
yesterday.

Other cases of crime re-
ported include seven

» robberies, four cases
of‘ thefts, four vehicle

f thefts and five cases of

. housebreaking.

‘No rape cases were re-
ported,

35



#4123
JpRS-SSAr85712
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

STANBIC ECONOMIST ADVOCATE OPEN ECONOMY

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 12 Nov 85 p 3

[Text]

113104
cso:

IN SPITE of its low status in the world, SA
has a vested interest in maintaining free
international trade, Stanbic economists say
in their November Revie

“As a small, relatively open economy the
country’s prosperity is based to a great
extent on its ability to freely sell materials
and products abroad: in turn, SA depends on
the outside world for many essential inputs,”
it says.

Foreign trade amounts to about 55% of
GDP compared to 17% for the US.

The Review argues that, barring strong
coercive measures, producers will seek oth-
er markets for their products as exports
from Europe and Japan to the US decline.

The outlook for exports is not as good. The

decline in the dollar may well enhance the
demand for commodities, but commodity

, Prices have yet to react as might have been
expected,

The report says this appears to be an *

extension of a longer standing under-per-
formance, particularly when commodity

3400/481

prices are viewed against a backdrop ot the
strong US recovery since early 1983. In addi-
tion, SA cannot realistically expect a major
push from the gold price.

Given modest growth in industrialised
economies and the changing structure of
world production demand for such raw ma-
terials as iron ore, copper and ferro-alloys is

_ unlikely to be very strong. Further, if bil

prices continue weak, this could start affect,

: Ing coal — SA’s second largest export.

“Overshadowing all these considerations
however, is the possibility that SA may find
it somewhat harder to sell products in worl4
markets on other than coimuercia
grounds,” the review says.

Stanbic is still predicting GDP growth
next. year in the region of 3%. But it ex-
presses some concern over current govern-
ment policy.

“Regrettably, stimulatory short-term eco-
nomic pelicy measures are now being applied
as palliatives, in the absence of more exten-
sive structural improvements in the eco-
nomy and in society,” it says.

115



JPRS*SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

problems. Opening the course, Comrade Abebe Berhanu, Acting Head of the
Educational Mass Media Department said that 11 educational radio stations are
in operation. He said radio programme preparation policy committees have been
formed in the regions to oversee the use of local radio stations for promoting
socio-economic and political activities. It was meanwhile reported that
similar training courses had earlier been organized for education-by-radio
programme editors in Shoa, Hararghe and Tigrai regions. [Text] [Addis Ababa
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 30 Oct 85 pi) /13104

TRACTORS DELIVERED--The Agro-Industrial Development Bank yesterday delivered
30 tractors to peasants producers’ co-operatives in seven regions as part of
its endeavour to promote socialist economic construction. The tractors were
bought with finance obtained from the African Development Fund and include a
variety of extensive plans of helping co-operatives in order to increase their
productivity. He pointed out that as the agricultural machineries were
obtained with loans, the co-operatives should handle them with care in order
to derive utmost benefit from them. [Text] [Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD
in English 30 Nov 85 p 1] /13104

INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY--The seminar organized to upgrade the proficiency of
administrators and workers deployed at zonal agricultural planning offices in
line with the new structural setup of the Ministry wound up last Saturday.
Closing the seminar, Comrade Tekola Dejene, member of the CC of the WPE and
Minister of Agriculture, said that much was expected of the workers of the
Ministry in increasing agricultural productivity. Comrade Tekola pointed out
that the Ministry has at present close to a 30,000-man workforce and urged the
administrative staff to always seek ways on how best to use the available
manpower. The Ministry said that close and immediate supervision was
essential in order to oversee both the obligations and rights of workers. The
Ministry said that close and immediate supervision was essential in order to
oversee both the obligations and rights of workers. The five-day seminar was
attended by about 88 administration heads. [Text] [Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN
HERALD in English 29 Oct 85 p 1] /13104

COFFEE ACREAGE EXPANSION--Field projects to expand coffee acreage in Hararghe
region are beginning to show positive results, according to the eastern
Ethiopia zonal planning officer. Over 387,840 coffee seedlings were produced
at nurseries in the eight coffee producing provinces of the region and
planting has been carried out on 42 hectares during the last production year.
The zonal planning office said in its annual report that the nursery project
during 1977 E.C. surpassed the planned target by seven per cent while that of
planting was realized 47 per cent. The respective increase over 1976 E.C.
figures were 442 per cent and 123 per cent. The report said Habro province
had the least coffee acreage while Wobere province fed the market with the
largest quantity of the product. [Text] [Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in
English 30 Oct 85 p 1] /13104

BEDELE OFFICE COMPLEX--An office complex built at a cost of over 357,000 birr
by the inhabitants of three districts in Buno province, Illubabor region, to
house mass organizations there started providing service Tuesday. The office
complex and a permanent exhibition in Bedele town were opened by Comrade

14



170-bed fully equipped ‘hospital at
Wonji, where workers are being treat-
ed free-of-charge. Wonji, Shoa and the:
Metahara factories each have a poly-
clinic providing medical service to
workers. In addition, there ere nine
camp clinics functioning at Wonji
and Shoa, while another six are locat-
ed at Metahara.

Education is another area, which. is:

equally given close attention. It is un-
derstood that there are schools. func-

/13104

CSO:

3400/499

tioning in all three estates, benefitting
both children and adults, The educa-
tional system functions all the way
from kindergarten to the senior secon-
dary level, The programme is jointly
managed by the corporation and the
workers’ union, while the Ministry of
Education is , assisting by — assigning
teachers. The literacy effort also pro-
duced good results, tthe Public Rela-
tipns Office po'nted out.



City Clothing Exports Hit By Sentiment Against RSA
(Tom Hood; WEEKEND ARGUS, 26 Oct 85) .....+-

Blacks Must Decide on Free-Enterprise System
(THE CITIZEN, 5 Nov 85) .....

Helicopter Deal With France
(THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER, 9 Nov 85) ..

Reserve Bank Governor Opens FINANCIAL MAIL Investment Meet
(Lesley Lambert;. BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ..

Gold Mining Industry Urged To Be Competitive
(Liz Rouse; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ....

Business Urged to Regional Development
(Andre Van Zyl; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ...eseeeeeeeees oe

Exporters Told To Avoid Safto
(BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) wsscccececcccceceeeeeceseneceees

Analysis of Rand's Decline Offered
(David de Kock; BUSINESS DAY, 14 Nov 85) ..... sec ceceneces

Reduction of Government Spending Urged
(Editorial; BUSINESS DAY, 14 Nov 85) .....eeeseeeeeeseeeee

Murray, Roberts Plan To Expand Cash Base
(Cherilyn Ireton; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ...... a aececees

Cruise Lines Curtail RSA Operations
(George Young; BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 85) .....seeseeeeeeees

Norwegian Shipowners Seek To Retain RSA Trade
(George Young; BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 85) ...... see eeeeceeee
(BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 85) ..sseseeeeecesecececceeeeeeeeeee

Weak Rand Saps Electronics Industry
(Matthew White; BUSINESS DAY, 14 Nov 85) ........++6- seeee

State Spending Increase Reported
(John Tilston, Gerald Reilly; BUSINESS DAY, 13 Nov 85) ...

RSA Shipping Market Firmer
Retailers Predict Rampant Inflation
| (Stephen Cranston; BUSINESS DAY, 13 Nov 85) ......++++ aes
Rise in Unemployment Among All Race Groups Reported

(Lesley Lambert; BUSINESS DAY, 14 Nov 85) .....-++++-

Response To MIT Professor Rotberg's Article
(Ken Owen; BUSINESS DAY, 14 Nov 85) ......++ee-

-e-

82

83

84

85

87

89

90

91

93

94

96

98

99

100

102

104

105

106



JPRS~SSA~85~193
December 1985

SWAZILAND

TRIBAL FIGHTING OVER BORDER ISSUE DENIED

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 3 Nov 85 p 6

[Article by Jon Qwelane: Swazis Fight Over Border Issue!"7

Elext]

/12851

IS THERE inter-tribal fighting
among Swazis living in the
kaNgwane homeland, with one
section pressing for unification
with the Kingdom of Swaziland
and the other vehemently re-
sisting?

The Times of Swaziland says
there is, and quotes “reliable
sources” in kaNgwane as say-
ing that one man has been
hacked to death in a’ political
killing during the “cloak-and-
dagger” activities to get con-
trol of the homeland.

The newspaper alleges mur-
der, stabbings and shootings of
pro-unification Swazis in the
homeland, and claims the vic-
tims were members of the pro-
border re-adjustment Inyatsi
Ya Maswati Party which op-
poses the ruling Inyandza_ Na-
tional Movement led by Chief

-Minister Enos Mabuza.

cso: 3400/417

127

But Mr Mabuza’s party
denies there is violence against
members of Inyatsi Ya Maswa-
ti “for political reasons”,

His party said: “We have
heard nothing of the allegations.
of violence. If they are true,
which we seriously. doubt, we
will give every possible assis-
tance to the authorities to
bring those responsible to jus-
tice. In our movement we up-’
hold the democratic rights of
opposition and criticism, and
we deplore political violence.

“It is to be regretted that a
statesman of Mr Mabuza’s stat-
ure, who is well known nation-
ally and internationally for his
integrity and clean political ca-
reer, should be associated with
such petty political propagan-
da. Our. movement is commit-
ted to fair political play and
will not be deterred in its de-
clared democratic principles.”



JPRS“SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG ALL RACE GROUPS REPORTED

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 85 p 1

[Article by Lesley Lambert]

[ext] UNEMPLOYMENT among whites,
coloureds and Asians leapt by 131% to
69534 in August from 30 112 in August
last year, government estimates show.

The figures, which do not include
blacks, are far from the real rate of
unemployment, conservatively estimat-
ed at 1,5-million.

Government estimates, accounting
only for people eligible for Unemploy-
ment Insurance Fund (ULF) benefits, in-
dicate an alarming trend. -

Thousands of workers have been laid:

off as economic conditions have wors-
ened and political instability has intensi-
fied.

The motor and building industries
have been particularly hard hit.

There are now at least 40000 new
applications a month for unemployment
benefits received by the UIF. According
to the economics head at the Universit
of the Western Cape, Professor Wolf-
gang Thomas, about 100 000 People are
probably losing their jobs monthly.

The 1,5-million jobless — accepted as
areasonable, but conservative, figure by
economists — represents 12,5% of the
estimated 12-million workforce,

A large proportion of the jobs have
been lost in politically-sensitive areas,

The estimate takes into account the

Depa tment of Manpower's figure for-
white,

coloured and Asian workers and

/13104
cso: 3400/481

the official current population survey
figure for black workers. These together
amount to almost 750 000. It then adds to
this the number of people estimated to
be unemployed in the homelands and
independent states.
‘It does not take account of the thou- |
sands of peeple who are not eligible for ,
UIF benefits. .
“More radical estimates of unemploy-
ment are as high as 4-million.
Aggravating the shortage of jobs is
the growth of the workforce — estimat-
ed to be swelling by 330 000 every year.
Unemployment," coupled with’ the
crippling rate of inflation, has been a
major contributor to the intense dissat-
isfaction which has led to political un-

rest.

Says Francis Wilson of Cape Town
University’s economic department:

“The rapid increase in unemployment
over the past 12 months is one of South
Africa’s biggest problems,

“Apart from the political requirement
of power-sharing, which is now the num-
ber one priority on government’s agen- +
da, the next most urgent issue is growing
unemployment.”

Government recently allocated
R100m in relief funds to provide jobs and
training for the unemployed. Another
R600m was made available last month
for short-term programmes to create

jo

105



/12828
cso:

3400/438

He sharply attacked the
Commission for failing to ac-
knowledge “two hundred
years of economic literature
on money which proves the
Commission and the Bank

* wrong” and also made cynical

refrence to the fact that simi-
lar reports by other commit-
tees in the 18th century are
based on “much sounder eco-
nomics than ours”. .

64



JPRS~SSA-85=123
16 December 1985

GHANA

TRADES UNION CONGRESS CALLS FOR SOCIALIST DEVELOPMENT
Accra GHANATAN TIMES in English 29 Oct 85 p1
[Article by R. Harry Reynolds, Hens Adjato/

[fext7 The Trades Union Congress (TUC) prefers the socialist type of devel-
opment for the country since it would lead the state to provide more basic
necessities like housing, education and health for the people, Mr A.K. Yankey,
Secretary-general of the TUC, said yesterday.

Opening a two-week seminar at the Labour College in Accra for 40 high level
personnel drawn from all the 17 national unions of the TUC, he explained
that the socialist type was the only way the few resources available could
be fairly shared among the people.

Among other things, said Mr Yankey, under the socialist type of development,
the poor in the society could afford their basic needs.

The Secretary-General called for a limitation on the arms race without which
all achievements on earth could be destroyed one day.

He questioned why, instead of helping to make the world a happier place

to live in, some powers were pumping money into its destruction. He said
such threats to world peace made meaningless, efforts to raise the standard
of living of workers.

Mr Yankey praised the unions of the communist block, particularly the World
Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU), for helping the liberation movements

in Africa. He urged all progressive forces of the world to help in the fight
by the blacks in South Africa and Namibia to free themselves from the inhuman
apartheid system.

/12851
cso: 3400/420

19



JPRS“SSA*85°123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

EXPANSION OF POSTAL SERVICES NOTED

Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 3 nov 85 pp 1, 6

[Article by Melese Telahoun]

[Text] ‘The number of post offices in Ethio-
pia has grown form 502 ten years ago
to 879 at present. This is a growth by
75% in the past ten years. This tre-
mendous growth is the outcome of the
efforts made by the Party and revolu-
tionary government of Socialist Ethio-
pia.

Disclosing this in an interview, Co-
mrade Gezahegn Gebre Wold, General
Manager of the Ethiopian Postal Office
said that although a lot remains to be
done by way of expanding postal ser-
vices to the broad masses in accordance
with the norms chanted by the office
of Universal Postal Union, there is no
area in the country where postal. ser-
vices are not availoble,

The General Monager, noted that ef-
ficient and adequate postal services
are rendered to members of the revolu-
tionary army in the nation’s pporders
and in the rehabilitation areas

Comrade Gerahegn said that the
Ethiopian Postal Service became a me-
mber of the Universal Postal Union 71
years ago. Ever since efforts have been
made to consolidate its international
qelations and expand its services to;
the Ethiopicn broad masses. Revolu-'
tionary EtKiopia was Deputy Chair.
man of the 19th Congress of the Uni-

versa] Postal Union which was held in
Hamburg in the Federal Republic of
Germany in July 1984. In view of the
active participation of the Ethiopian
delegation during the Congress, Ethio-
pia was elected by majority vote the
permanent member of the Executive
Council and Chairman of the Techni-
cal Assitance Committee of the Union
for the next five years, he stated.

At the continental level ‘Ethiopia
thas ‘been lected Deputy Chair
man of the Pan African Postal Union
and permanent member of the Union’:
Executive Council for four years. ~
Comrade Gezahegn went on to say

that in full realization of the efforts
made by the Ethiopian Postal Service.
the office of the Universal Postal Uni-
on and its members provide financial
and marial assistance, skilled man-
power and scholarship. A lot of work
has already been accomplished through
the utilization of such essistance. Many
of the staff menzbers af the Service
have already received training and are
at present rendering efficient services
along modern lines. 1

“In onder to meet the norms charted
by the Universal Postal Union, that is
to render postal services to 10,000 to

'



JPRS+SSA+85-*123
16 December 1985

MADAGASCAR

BRIEFS

FRENCH FINANCING--France has provided finance amounting to four million francs
for scientific and technical assistance for exploratory fishing of crustaceans
in deep waters off southwest Madagascar. [Text] [Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN
NEWSLETTER in English 2 Nov 85 p 8] /9274

PORT CONTRACT~-The French port of Le Havre has obtained an important contract
in the Malagasy port modernization program. An in-depth study in 1981-82 by
the French Bureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipements d'Outre-mer put the
cost of restoring the island's port infrastructure at 8.82 billion Malagasy
francs. The program is supported by West Germany, which provided equipment
in 1984, and by the International Development Association, which has loaned
eight million dollars. The Le Havre port authority will update the rehabili-
tation project, provide technical assistance and train port. personnel.

[Text] [Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 9 Nov 85 p 7] /9274

JOINT MONETARY REGULATIONS WITH MAURITIUS--Following the three-day mission
from Mauritius to Madagascar headed by deputy prime minister Gaetan Dubal,
finance minister Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo announced that the two countries
would draw up joint monetary regulations which would enable them to trade in
their respective currencies. A delegation from the Mauritian central bank is
due to go to Antananarivo next week with the aim of setting up a clearing
house. The Malagasy finance minister, Pascal Rakotomavo, will pay a visit
to Mauritius at the end of this month. He will be followed before the end
of the year by Malagasy businessmen and industrialists. [Text] [Paris THE
INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 9 Nov 85 p 7] /9274

TRAINING SHIP CRUISE--The French navy's training ship Jeanne d'Arc will spend
the major part of its 1985-86 cruise in the Indian Ocean. Its first port of
call there will be Djibouti on December 21, followed by Mombasa on January 2,
Mayotte on the 9, Antsiranana on the 14, Toamasina on the 18, Reunion on the
22 and Mauritius on the 28. The ship will then head west, calling at Fre-
mantle and Sydney on February 14 and 28 respectively, before going on to
Noumea, Ujung Padang, Jakarta and Karachi. It will be back in Djibouti on
May 6 before passing through the Suez canal. I.0.N.-~The surprising feature
of this cruise of the Jeanne d'Arc is above all the inclusion of the Malagasy
ports of Antsiranana and Toamasina. In effect, President Didier Ratsiraka
has broken with the policy of "national independence" which he had conducted
unsweringly since assuming power, and now accepts foreign warships calling at
his country's ports. The first weakening of the previously rigid rule occur-
red in April 1984 when warships from France (the Champlain and the Protet) and

24



REDUCTION OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING URGED

JPRS*SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 85 p 8

[Editorial: "Spending Folly"]

[Text]

113104
cso:

HERE is no way South Africa can spend

its way out of the present recession

without creating worse problems in
two or three years.

There is no trade-off between inflation
and unemployment. It is no good arguing
that with demand in the economy so low and
the money supply shrinking, rising govern-
ment spending is a useful way of gingering
up business activity and creating more jobs

ickly. wt
q That won't do at all. For while there is
little immediate likelihood of demand ex-
ceeding the economy's ability to supply ahd
thus pushing up prices, it won’t take very
long for this to happen given the other
powerful inflationary forces in operation.

Almost every day now costs are being
pushed up substantially by a depreciating
rand. The pressure is especially strong on
imports which have been pared down to just.

. about what is necessary to keep the eco-
nomy in motion.

Even assuming that the rand steadies at
current levels, which should moderate the
rise in the cost of imports, domestic infla-

3400/481

tionary pressures coming from high pay for
civil servants and other administered prices
remain strong.

So ‘rising inflationary expectations will
soon lead to a rise in aggregate demand as
government outlays build up in banks, and
interest rates are prematurely manoeuvred
down by Church Square.

Of course, all these inflationary pressures
could ultimately be contained if there were
no growth in the money supply. This is be-
cause there will not be sufficient credit to’
finance a substantial rise in aggregate de-
mands. But that means deepening the geces-
sion even more. os

So our guess is that government will not
allow. the Reserve Bank to keep the money
supply under control. If it did, the increased
outlays that Deputy Treasury chief Gerhard
Croeser talks about would be pointless.

We do not for a moment suggest that
government should do nothing about the
economy. But the path it has choselt iy''t
wrong one. Now is the time to reduce gov!
ernment spending, cut taxes to encourage
saving and investment, and privatise vigor-
ously. .

93



/13104
cs0:

3400/481

Although the new upswing would
start from a low base, a positive real
rate of growth of gross domestic
product (GDP) of about 3% was indi-
cated for 1986, compared with a nega-
tive growth rate of about 0,5% in 1985.

Real gross domestic expenditure,
which stopped declining during the
third quarter this year, was expected
to rise by about 4% next year. In-
creases in both private and govern-
ment consumption expenditure, with
some build-up of inventories, were
expected to contribute to this rise. No
upturn in real fixed investment was
expected just yet.

As far as the balance of payments
was concerned, De Kock said present
indications were that even if the
growth rate accelerated to 3% in
1986, the current account would still

show a substantial surplus of around

Rébn.

86



713104
cso:

20,000 people there are plans to mo-
hilize the full co-operation of govern-
ment and mass organizations, Atten-
tion will be focused on improving the
quohity of postal services and the train:
ing of personnel with a view to enrbl-
ing thera to ronder more efficient ser-
vices, .

In accordance with the directives is-
sued by WPE and the revolutionary
Gevernment, regional Postal Office are
being established in all the zonal offic:
es. In the very neat future Postal offic-
es will he established in ‘Bahr Dar and
Dessie towns. Postal money order and

3400/499

postal order services will be further ex-
panded in the various post offices,
Comrede Gezshegn also, sxid the ne-
cessary preparations are being made to
establish postal clubs im stnior high
schools of the country wherp REYAs
are well established through which
postal services cam be rendered and
thereby cultivate in the youth the tra.

dition of exchanging letters: and get

them acquainted with postel services.
When these plens are. trerelated inte
fraitful action, there is no doubt that
postal services will be rendered in a
continuous.end reliable manner, he
conchided,



/13104
cso:

Peace)

TABVANCED

Sheor peniooe)
2. SrsINVED IMENT,

 G/aeAe BOVERO

VATED

A

WABEGUATE

[ERR weet]

WANTING.
SoNrigeNce

‘zcoNoF
eee

anymore — we are like a bunch of
sheep milling around aimlessly.

Do we need a definition for the rand
to recover? Ultimately we do, and
perhaps we will get it at the Presi-
dent’s Council meeting this afternoon.
But our political framework is so
steeped in history and tradition that I
doubt whether we will ever be able to
move fast enough to satisfy enough
people simultaneously.

In the interim we could attack the
symptoms. Relatively little more can
be done to discourage selling of rand
~~ it has probably reached tle peak

way: ‘he financial rand is an evil
with which we must live for the mean-
time. We are left with lagged export
receipts. -

We could shorten the legally per-
missible credit period (six months),
but, as I have said before, that would
merely detract from out marketing
Capability. The solution would seem
to be an encouragement for ex orters
to enter the market to sell their
foreign currency forward,

This can be done by engineering an
upward shift in the exchange rate,

us forcing exporters to cover for-

3400/481

mi
New
TACK OF
CLEAR POLITICAL,
FUTURE
mane

. RUBIEON.
CREDIT BTANOATILL

ward to protect their profits. It could
probably bé achieved by active cen-
tral bank intervention in the initial
stages and until exporters enter the
market en masse,

Drawbacks

But this has drawbacks — the cen-
tral bank has sufficient reserves to
prevent a fall, but does it have suffi-
cient to engineer a rise in the ex-
change rate? . +

Perhaps .we should look again at
fixing the exchange rate at a some-
what higher level, especially one fol-
lowed by some advance notice to al-
low exporters sufficient time to cover
forward their export proceeds at cur-
rent favourable rates.

The Judas ram image of the rand
will be ‘eliminated and we can begin
to attack the real problem. Let’s have
some action for a change —,any ac-
tion will do. -.

92



/13104
cso:

3400/481

cruise liners. It is significant that the
P&O Line, which operated into the
Pacific drawing on a larger passen-
ger potential from Australia, also had
to withdraw its ships because of cost
and inadequate support.

‘The 42 000-ton luxury liner Oriana
is likely to go for scrap in May. Her
sister, Canberra, will probably follow
soon after. .

Both liners were based for a period
in Australian ports but, because of
competition from lower-priced Rus-
sian rivals, and other factors, they
were withdrawn. .

An imponderable is whether South
Africans would be persuaded to ride
in a Russian liner if it ventured down
here. The Soviet ships, invariably
well-run, are cruising out of London,
the east coast of the US and out of
Australia to the Pacific.

‘Their fares are substantially lower
than those of Western. lines because,
being State-owned, the ships are cov-
ered by government insurance, have
to meet no depreciation, overtime or
union costs, and are regarded solely
as foreign currency eartiers.

So far, it has been solely political
considerations which have kept them
out of SA. : . .

97



KRUGERRAND MOVE 'SHOWS SANCTIONS HURT!

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15

[Text]

113104
cso:

SOUTH AFRICA’s decision to suspend
minting of gold Krugerrand coins is the
first tangible sign that international
anti-apartheid sanctions are beginning
to bite, economists said yesterday.

The organisation dealing with the coin
exports, International Gold Corporation
(Intergold), said on Wednesday night
production had been suspended several
weeks ago, but refused to say exactly
when,

The coin, launched in 1970, has helped
SA export about 43-million ounces of

old on top of its bullion exports, which
ring in about half the country’s foreign
earnings.

Intergold CE Don Mackay-Coghill
said yesterday demand for the Kruger-
rand had been affected by recent import
bans imposed by the United States and
Japan, major target markets.

He said he did not know how long
minting would be halted but added that
it was not the first time production had
been suspended as it depended on de-
mand.

3400/481

JPRS“SSA+85-+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Nov 85 p 4

President Reagan banned imports of
the coin from October 11 after pressure
at home grew for tougher punitive mea-
sures against apartheid.

Reserve Bank Governor Dr Gerhard
de Kock said yesterday he did not view
the suspension too seriously as metal not
sold in the form of coins could still be
exported in gold bars.

But’ Mackay-Coghill acknowledged
that Krugerrand sales, which had
slumped drastically lately, helped the
gold price as coin sales did not affect

ullion market rates.

Intergold stopped publishing statistics
on sales last May. Sales in the first five
months of this year totalled 685 226
gunces, down 34% on the same period of

Economists have said that during the
Krugerrand’s heyday overseas, the coin

“contributed up to 12% of total gold sales
by SA.

Mackay-Coghill said Europe was still
a viable market for Krugerrands. —
Sapa-Reuter

113



_. The most important element in
fixed investment decisions is
business confidence, which will
take some rebuilding.

In addition, there is an almost

universal feeling among busi- ‘

nessmen that interest rates will
rise next. year as foreign loans
are switched onshore.

The only hope for more spend-
ing is in the public sector. Gov-
ernment spending can — as
always — be relied upon to in-
crease.

But most economists expect |

some fiscal stimulatory action in
next year’s budget.
Says Volkskas’ Adam Jacobs:

“The government has put its .

cards on the table as far as its
economic policy is concerned.
How far the domestic stimulation
package will go is not yet clear.”
GOVERNMENT POLICY: There
is some dispute about the current
level of government spending.
Measured against last year’s

spending itis igh but measured *
levels it is more

against budget
or less on target.
Revenues are also on budget,
but are expected to be ahead by
the end of the 1985/86 fiscal year.

Thee is a'general consensus
emerging that government will
assist the recovery process next
year by increasing spending. If
this is so, then the hoped-for tax
reductions are unlikely to mate-
rialise.

60

Geldenhuys, projecting the
state’s financial position at the
time of next year’s budget, says
that prospects: for anything but
token tax cuts are slim.

He estimates a deficit before
borrowing in the 86/87 fiscus of
R4,4bn — a massive 44% above
this tax year’s likely deficit of
R3,06bn.

The figures are based on an
assumed increase in government

spending of 14% that will “prob-
ably have to include a general
salary increase”.

* But, he concludes: “It should be

_ Clear that there is no room for

major tax concessions or, in any
case, not a lowering of the total
tax burden — particularly if up-
ward pressure on interest rates is
to be prevented.”

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
‘Despite much of the gloom, there

“is still expected to be growth in

GDP next year. The average
from available forecasts is 3,1%.

Much of this growth will come
from the export sector, the agri-
cultural sector (provided the
weather is kind) and government
spending.

But a 3% growth rate takes us
back, more or less, to where we
were 18 months ago. We need de-
cisive developments on the politi-
cal front to improve real pros-

': pects in the medium-term.



/12828
CSO:

3400/438

Mr Grindy views creation
of additional capital by the
domestic market in a practi-

" eal light.
i> ““The only way SA can cre-

ate more capital, without
printin new money, is by
ecoming more efficient.”

66



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

NMS SCHEME IMPLEMENTATION REVIEWED

Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 29 Oct 85 p 1

[Text]

/13104
cso:

Day-long seminars to review the
implementation of the first and second
round National Military Service sche-
me and to chart plans for the third
round in Sidamo and Arssi regions
were held in Awassa and Assela yes-
terday.

Attended by members of the regio-
nal commissarizt, police evxmmissioners
and administrators of the six provinces
and various districts and regional re-
presentatives of government agencies
and mass organizations, the seminar
discussed problems encountered dur-
ing the ‘previous two rounds.

They also charted plans for effec-
tive implementation of the third round,

Comrade Col. Tadesse Ferede, alter-
nate member of the CC of the WPE
and the Sidamo region Military Com-
missar, underlined the responsibilities:
entrusted upon government and mass
“organizations in ensuring the imple-
mentation of the National Military
Service scheme-in the region.

3400/499

Meanwhile, a similar | serhinar was
held in the Arssi regional capital of
Asscla. :

The meeting reviewed problems
faced during the past two rounds and

* mapped out plans for the third round
National Military, Service scheme in
the region,

: Opening the meeting, Comrade Si-

; leshi Mengesha, member of the CC of

, the WPE and First Secretary of the
WPE Committee for the region noted
' that encouraging results have been

attained in the past through the active
participation of the youth in the Na-

tional Military Service scheme.*  '

Comrade Lt. Col, Belay Bitew, al-
‘ternate’ member of the CC of the
WPE and the regional Military Com-
Jmissar, spoke on his part on formulat-
-ing a better plan after assessing the

shortcomings of the past. (ENA)

11



MURRAY, ROBERTS PLAN TO EXPAND CASH BASE

JPRS“SSA=85~193
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 5

{Article by Cherilyn Ireton]

[Text]

MURRAY & Roberts’
(M&R) proposed R70m
rights issue is part of the
group’s short-term plan to
establish a broader cash
base and limit its borrow-
ings. a

“We want to’generate as
much cash as possible,” says
group CE Bill Bramwell.

“Not for any specific ac-
quisitions, but because we believe interest rates,
currently on the way down, could rise again in the
not-too-distant future.”

When that happens, the construction-based group
doesn’t want to be saddled with heavy interest
payments.

“Having said that, it doesn’t mean we are plan-
ning to creep into a shell and draw the shutters. We
are constantly looking for new opportunities.”

But there are two gualitying factors a company
must satisfy before being eligible to join the Murray
& Roberts fold.

“It must be a real bargain — goodwill has gone
out the window — and it must fit into our existing
activities.

“Through any acquisition, we must be able to
improve our market share and penetration.”

in the longer term, M&R wants to extend its
activities in coal — “and we are going to move less
into smoke-stack industries and more inté advanced
technology”.

The group will continue to aim for a balance in its
ortfolio, so that it is not affected by economic
luctuations in any particular sector.

It is a philosophy which appears to have worked |

well for the group.

_ Its Spread of activities has enabled M&R Con-
. struction to stave off the effects of a general indus-
try slump and to post satisfactory results.

~ Bramwell doesn’t see the construction industry

94

recovering in the next 12 months, but says there are
already a number of companies within the group
showing signs of growth.

“Our policy to decentralise construction has paid
off. Construction is a regional activity and one area
will lead or lag others because of the difference in
tempo at which work arises.

“It is important that we recognise this and be
represented in these areas.”

[&R Construction has aligned itself closely with
infrastructure projects which, in the past, have
helped cushion variations in the general economic
climate. These Projects have been an important
source of large-scale work.

Now, for the same reasons, the division is linking
itself with toll roads and hopes to be involved in the
Mossel Bay project, if it goes ahead.

International construction activities, assisted by
currency variations, were very profitable for the
grou last year. Non-South African activities are

cept quiet, but Bramwell hints there are no plans ta
trim outside operations.

In common with general engineering activities,
M&R’s engineering companies fared badly.

There has been some work available in this mar-
ket but, because of the desperate state of the indus-
try, pricing has been ruthlessly competitive.

“On the whole, we have been able to read the
cyclical developments in the construction and prop-
erty markets quite well.

“We are always watching the changes in the
market place and so far haven’t been caught short.”

The same may not be the case on the property
side, where M&R’s Cape portfolio, comprising pro-
jects worth over R30m, came on stream a bit late.
Although some are still under construction, selling
;has been slow.

Bramwell says that although the construction
industry has been in decline for three years, it is
unusual to have an across-the-board slump.

“As a result, a lot of people have fallen out of the



RAWLINGS CALLS FOR FURTHER CIVILIAN COOPERATION

Accra PEOPLE'S DAILY GRAPHIC in English 31 Oct 85 pl

[Article by Breda Atta Quayson, Yaw Ohene-Manu/

Lfext]

/12851
cso:

NOW that things are
getting better and there
is every indication of
economic improvement,
Ghanaians will have to
put in more efforts to
build a more solid eco-
nomic base, the Chair-
man of the PNDC, Fit.
Lt. Jerry John Rawlings
has said.

He said “now. is the cru-
cial time when our efforts
can lift us into economic
recovery and social trans-
formation”.

Chairman Rawlings was
speaking to workers of
Mim Timber Company
(MTC) Limited at Mim
vesterday.

‘The Leader of the Revo-
lution said the government
and the people of this
country have got to a stage
where complacency could
destroy all that they have
laboured to build,

Fit. Lt. Rawlings said
examples of self-help,
luntary work and local ini-
tiative are multiplying all
over the country. and
pointed.out that this is an
atmosphere within which
the country’s progress of
social transformation
could grow.

‘The Leader of the Revo-
lution told the Mim work-
ers that they should not
delude themselves that the
loans the government has
been taking would bring
about economic recovery.

He said the best Gha-

34.00/419

16

naians could do is to work
and create the conditions
and provide the means for
economic recovery.

“It is for us to use the
available means to in-
crease productivity and ef-
ficiency so that we can
certainly build up our-eco-
nomy. pay off our debts
and then with a sustain-
able economic base, we can
best improve the living
standards of the people”.
he said.

He said if Ghanaians
were not ready to seize this
opportunity and make the
most of it, then we cannot
justify the investments be-
ing made by government.
since they will become no-
thing but debts and liabili-
ties for our children.

The Chairman said
Ahafo is an important pro-
ducer of cocoa and food
crops and progress has
been made in the rehabili-
tation of cocoa farms. The
government has also tried.
to encourage the efforts of
farmers by providing in-
puts, as well as better pri-
ces for their produce and
access to some of their ba-
sicneeds.

He stressed that the
Mim Timber Company has
made great progress not
just in stepping up total
production for export and
domestic use, but also in
the reduction of waste in
processing and in the care-
ful management of forest
resources.

JPRS+SSA+85+123
16 December 1985

GHANA



JPRS“SSA*85~123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

INSURANCE INDUSTRY PAYS OUT R45 MILLION IN RIOT CLAIMS

Cape Town ARGUS (Business) in English 26 Oct 85 p 3

[Article by Derek Tommey]

for buildings destroyed by fire

[Text] ABOUT R45 million has been
paid out so far this year for and losses caused by looting.
riot claims, Cape Town The amount of looting had been
members of the South African much higher in the Western Cape
Insurance Brokers Association than elsewhere. Rioters in this
(SAIBA) learnt this week. area were distracting the police’s
This estimate was given by Mr One spor eg using trouble in
Don Gallimore, chairman of the where to start Teo! joing else-
South African Special Risks In- From the claims for dama re
surance Association (SASRIA). now being received by SASRIA SL
ooASRIA was ‘Set up to provide almost i ti ay confined to ine
insurance cover against riot and Western Cape ly confined to the
rn + r Gallimore saids that SAS-
Mr Gallimore said that in spite
of the payment of this amount of RIA had tal ken 8 number of steps
money, he did not think that SAS- clainke  "P the payment of
pein have to increase its 10 It had enlarged its staf and no
7 nger had a special list of -
LOOTING lo - of asses.
He said that its ine le owner of a damaged motor
come last y one was remium ‘on vehicle could now use an asses-
The unrest had caused more that and provided he could show
people to take out riot insurance, ta a {he time his car ("he da-
and with changes in the Finance mee he wae i rit unrest in the
Act requiring some companies to his cl. alm we 1d b likely that
obtain further Cover, he estimat- quickly. im would be settled
ed that its premium income next It cost R10 to insure a pri
t t ir private
car should rise to around Vehicle against riots and R20 a
imé a
In addition it had reserves of In cases where payment was
R250 million . unusually delayed it was general-
Mr Gallimore said that of the ly found that the documentation
R45 million paid out R28 million rder.
had been for damage to motor weaver, sometimes SASRIA
‘ ly payment on a build-
veheiles and the balance mainly ing such as a township bottle
112828 store Which it felt would be da-
mage
cso: 3400/438 pee a again as soon as it had

45



JPRS“SSA~85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

EXPORTERS TOLD TO AVOID SAFTO

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 7

[Text] EXPORTERS must avoid organisa- Because of a national tendency to

tions like the SA Foreign Trade Or-
ganisation (Safto) if they hope to ex-
ploit foreign markets,

overreact, too many manufacturers
feared he arrival of Doomsday be-
“cause of a series of petty actions of

certain people in other countries.
“Doomsday, however, is not a
proaching. These problems, and the
‘ones to be encountered in the future,
exist to be overcome. Tactics must be
changed and strategy replanned.”
As part of that strategy, he said,
» more attention had to be paid to invisi-
ble exports,
“South Africa has one of the lowest
ratios in the world of technology ex-
income compared with its re-
- search and development expenditure..

“Here again, the state and quasi-

They are perceived overseas to be
linked to government, the Financial
Mail investment conference was told,

Export consultant John Bell said
any export that could be linked to the

. South African government suffered an
immediate disadvantage.

Taxpayers! m lirected to or-
ganisations like Safto and the SA In-
ventions Development Corporation
could be better spent elsewhere to
avoid the tion of government-

supported or politically-supported ex-
‘pore e efforts. pe y sta asi
Said Bell: “Avoid any anisation ernment organisations must fol-
which smacks of “offical Sou African _ Tow world trends and take a back seat.
support for your effort. It hurts our " “Private professional organisations
fr le, but the outside world demands exist to negotiate technology trans-
t, Seek all the professional advice you fers, and we simply cannot afford to
can, but go.it alone.” have any hint of official state involve-.

He said that although most export- ment.”
ers considered the outside world to be
hostile, this hostility was overrated.

/13104
cso: 3400/481

90



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

MAURITIUS

SUGAR GOOD, TEXTILES BETTER
Paris THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 2 Nov 85 p 7

{Text]

The third SITEX international textile fair, which will be staged on .
Mauritius from November 5 to 8, will take place as the economic situation
is particularly favourable for the island's textile industry. Statistics
for the first half of 1985 show that for the first time in Mauritian
history exports from the export processing zone (EPZ), where most of the
country's textile factories are located, were greater than those of the
sugar industry, which itself improved its perforance compared with last
year.

While sugar exports totalled 940 million rupees in the first half of
1984 and those from EPZ industries 908 million, for the same period this
year the figures were 1,160 million and 1,300 million respectively. Out
of this last figure, the textile factories accounted for 960 million
rupees, indicating that the results for the whole of the year will be
excellent. Only two years ago, textile sales for the whole of 1983
amounted to just 920 million rupees.

The textile industry is undeniably the most active sector in the EPZ,
and especially the factories producing clothing. During the first six
months of this year the number of people employed in the EPZ rose from
37,500 to 46,600, an increase of 9,100 jobs. Almost all of them (8,500)
were taken on by the textile factories, which boosted their workforce to
39,500. If the spinning and weaving plants are included as well, the
textile industry employed 41,300 people on June 30, 1985, compared with
30,800 six months earlier.

SITEX 85 should therefore demonstrate the astonishing and meteoric
success of the Mauritian textile industry, which admittedly has been
achieved by means of a policy of paying very low wages. The fair is
expecting almost 800 visitors connected with textile manufacture from all
over the world; last year there were 530 visitors, who placed orders
worth 300 million rupees (24 million dollars). While the traditional
market for Mauritius is Europe, this year will see the arrival for the
first time in large numbers of buyers from the United States, in the
wake of Washington's decision to increase the import quota of Mauritian
shirts and woollens by 6.5 times last March (see I.0.N. N°172).

19274
cso: 3400/475

28



JPRS*SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

SWAZILAND

MHLUME SUGAR COMPANY FORECASTS DROP OF 30,000 TONNES
Mbabane THE TIMES OF SWAZILAND in English 30 Oct 85 pp 13, 14

[Bxcerpt/ Mnlume (Swaziland) Sugar Company predicts that they will produce
118-119,000 tonnes of sugar this year, a drop from their last year's produc-
tion of 148,000 tonnes.

The reasons for this lowered production have been unfavourable weather » and
more importantly, the emergence of Eldana, a pest that bores into and eats

cane. Eldana spread very rapidly, and if one's neighbours have it in their
fields, it's certain to spread into yours » no matter what methods of field

hygiene one employs.

Mhlume don't at present see themselves diversifying in anyway to another crop
since all of their available land is under cane. However, the manufacture of
ethenol is being considered. ‘The company feels that they would be able to
supply the fuel needs of Swaziland through the conversion of molasses (which
is a by-product of sugar production) into fuel to be mixed with petrol and
perhaps diesel.

The 4.432 ha. available for cane production at Mhlume are irrigated by means
of concrete furrows which are gravity fed and siphoned off through pipes into
the fields, an overhead sprinkled system, and they are currently experimen-
ting with drip irrigation.

Agricultural practices are very important at Mhlume. The soil there is of
very poor quality and a great deal of time and money is spent on drainage,
scientific soil analysis and, of course, irrigation.

Mhlume has 1,700 employees and all permanent employees are housed by the
company on the Estate. In recent years the company has begun @ programme to
improve the living conditions of its resident employees. They have established
a standard of housing which provides, at the minimum, a two bedroom house

with living area, kitchen, bathroom and electricity for industrial employees.
They are working on establishing this standard for their agricultural employ-
ees as well. Housing is awarded on 2 points system determined by position,
seniority, length of employment, size of family and such factors.

128



JPRS*SSA*85*123
16 December 1985

ETHIOPIA

DROUGHT, REHABILITATION COMMITTEE ADOPTS ACTION PROGRAM

Addis Ababa THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD in English 29 Oct 85 pl

[Text]  NEKEMPTE (ENA) — <The ieaith; traneport and the distribution
Drought Relief and Rehabilitation of instruments of production.
Committee of western Ethiopia held a Comrade Petros Wantamo, Head ot
meeting here a acme for te 1985. . the Western Ethiopia Zonal Planning

a een Pe . Office with the rank of Commissioner,
86 that would be implemented in Wol- “elaborated on the targets defined i in the
trae. wt res ee ated by Come 1985-86 plan of action for the region

Nae the field of rehabilitati
rade Negussie Fanta, member of the The pavtcgants of ‘the meeting
CC of the WPE and Biss Secretary a ‘went on a tour of inspection in Ne
the WPE Comm ae Atale ene kempte town to obtain first-hand expe-
fer ofthe CC of the WPE and Ft renee of the progres of secite pro

7° + jects and institutions,
Secretary of the WPE Committee of a : ,
Kaffa vogion, Comrade Simeon Galore A similar meeting of the Relief and
ber of the CC of the WPE and Rehabilitation Committee of the sou-
First Seeretary of the WPE Commit. thern regions was held recently in the
tee of Illubabor region, alternate me- ey tat of the administrative
mbers of the CC of the WPE, and ° Th ie region. 4 co
‘members of the Drought Relief and ; Ke men was atten ed by c me
Rehabilitation Committee of the three rade Xassahun Tafesse, member of the
ns. CC of the WPE and First Secretary
regio!

“Addressing the meeting, the first be the wre Committe of Gamo Got
secretaries of regional WPE Commit- fel. nen be “7 : me i ec eb
tees, outlined what had been achieved aad Mare ia “ dl - © o sd wre.
in their respective areas to implement at a Sida ‘ary of i ‘ om
the programme of the Political Bu- nh ee v “e, me mee ae
reau of the CC of the WPE to with- th oWPE ond Fine ber ot e oC ot
stand and ultimately overcome . the PE id First Secre ry of
drought situation. ‘ ; WPE Committee of Bale region, and

They gave reports on concrete achi: Comrade Yessof Peale Head
evements in the sphere of rehabilita- om ‘Office ‘sith th op’ - one “ane
tion with particular reference to agri- von +. (ENA) © Fal is
cultural development, construction, . '

113104

C80: 3400/499

12



/13104
cso:

3400/481

goals in SA society; .
O Get private sector People involved
in government. Ball believes that
while businessmen may not appreci-
ate the full complexity of govern-
ment, they are proficient in the tech-
niques of performance achievement;
C1 Bé comipétitive. SA needs to be effi-
cient in politics and economics;
Change the tax regime and motl-
vate savers. Incentives must be en-
couraged by the tax system; .
CO Use quantitative targeting of infla-
tion and money supply as a tool as
much as possible;

OAchieve internationalisation in SA
society by attracting skill and capital.

56



/12851
cso:

through the prime’ minister and cabi-
net, largely bypassing the tribal
elders.

The Queen Regent takes little part
in public affairs and Queen Ntombi
has never spoken in public since she
was appointed in 1983. Her appoint-
ment was made by the Liqogo, which
to do so ousted her predecessor,
Queen Dzeliwe.

The Liqoqo has now been stripped
of its power to depose the head of
state and there has been speculation
— but nothing more — that Dzeliwe
will be reinstated as Queen Regent.

Another result of the recently-ga-
zetted changes is expected to be a de-
cline in the importance of the tradi-
tional capital, Lobamba, where the
Ligogo has its offices. More emphasis
will now be placed on Mbabane as the

3h.00/H17

125

administrative capital. ©

An intriguing question that has yet
to be answered is the extent to which
the changes might have been in-
fluenced by Crown Prince Makhose-
tive. Though he is still at school (an
exclusive boarding establishment in
England) the teenage prince is reput-
ed to have shown considerable firm-
ness in exercising his powers*during
his recent return home for ‘the school
holidays. ~

When he ascends to the throne, pos-
sibly within the next two years, he
will assume the near-absolute powers
held by his father, King Sobhuza. It
appears, however, that under the new
dispensation he will be advised less by
the tribal elders and the Liqogo and
more by the prime minister and cabi-
net.



JPRS“SSA+85~*123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

WEAK RAND MAKES MOSSEL BAY VIABLE

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 1

[Article by Kevin Davie and Christ Cairncross]

[Text]

* dence from import

THE green light given last night. to
the Mossel Bay oil project indicates
that the weak rand and growin
threats of blockades have turn
marginal oil projects into attractive
Propositions

Energy experts who have monitored
attempts to develop independent fuel
supplies said yesterday it was SA’s in-
creasing isolation that made synfuel pro-

‘jects more viable. :

State President P W Botha, speakinj

to the President’s Council yesterday, sai
_ development of the M Bay gas fields
would go ahead.

The development would cost R3,5bn
and be financed largely from available
resources within the Central Energy
Fund (CEF).

‘The CEF, funded by levies on the pet-
rol price, is intended to develop indepen-

‘ted energy sources.
Project planning is expected to begin

next year.
. The field is likely to be in production

. uh 1990, with petrol and diesel sales be-
in

ning the following year. ‘
Botha said the private sector would be
involved in the development and that
government would be making announce-
ments on other synfuel developments —
also involving the private sector — in the
near future. a
He was presumed to be referring to
the long-awaited AECI/Amcoal coal
gasification project, estimated to have a
capital-cost tag of about R2,5bn, and the
: Smaller Gencor torbanite (oil shale) gasi-.
fication plan. :
‘On the Mossel Bay venture, Botha said:
“The decision (to go ahead) was taken
‘after comprehensive studies proved that
the gas reserves are of an economic ex-

109

ploitable quality and quantity.”

Brian Goodall, PFP energy spokes-*
man, said yesterday: “This is the best bit
of economic news we've had for a long

me”

He said it represented an attempt to
get some return on the R500m spent so

far on oil exploration. It would boost the
economy, particularly the engineering
industry. :

“I hope the public will be invited to
invest as soon as possible and that there
is private sector involvement right from.
the beginning,” he said.

lall said while there were strate-
gic reasons for going ahead with the
project, Sasol had shown that a strategic
industry could be a tremendous financial
success.

Alan Hill, energy consultant for Max
Pollack & Freemantle, said the fact that
the petrol price had gone up five times in
seven years had added impetus to syn-
fuel developments.

He said the Mossel Bay project —
which is ed to produce 10 000 bar-
rels a day for at least 20 years — was at
least as viable as Sasol III. The AECI
project could turn out to be a bigger
project than Mossel Bay.

ill said the projects were a natural
reaction to SA's present predicament, to
improve the balance of payments by ex-
porting more and importing less.

Botha told the President's Council it
was estimated that about 10000 jobs
would be created during the peak of the
construction phase.

This number could probably be dou-
bled if satellite industries were taken;
into account, he said.

According to Soekor reports, drilling,
in the gas field 85km off Mossel Bay has
revealed gas reserves of about a trillion



SWEDISH REINSURANCE FIRM WITHDRAWS

JPRS*SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Nov 85 p 3

{Article by Harold Fridjhon and Lesley Lambert]

/13104
cso:

SWEDISH reinsurance group Skandia
has withdrawn from the South African
insurance market for political, not
business, reasons.

Reinsurance Consultants and Inter-
mediaries MD Rob Ellis said yester-
day that the order to withdraw from
renewal and new business came from
Stockholm via Skandia UK, a subsid-
iary which handled SA commitments.

Santam Insurance MD Oosie Oost-
huizen said yesterday he did not be-
lieve that the withdrawal of Skandia
would have an important impact on
the local market because its premium
income could not have been much
more than “a few million rands”.

This was confirmed by sA Eagle
general manager Brian Williamson,
who said that a handful of SA insurers
had done business with them.

It is possible that other-Scandina-
vian insurers. which have ‘trea!
agreements with SA companies wi

end their business rel
with this country.

Williamson added that although

3400/481

tionships that

small in the market, the loss of Skan-
dia’s facilities meant that less was
available in the market and that the
shortfail would have to made made up
elsewhere. Skandia was mostly in-
volved in excess of loss reinsurance
and proportional reinsurance.

Neither Oosthuizen nor Williamson
believed that other reinsurers would
follow the Skandia lead.

A large proportion of the reinsur-
ance business is placed directly or
through local companies with the gi-
ant reinsurers in Germany and Swit-
zerlaad, which are more concerned
with the bad risk record of the SA
market and the low level of premi-
ums, than they are with political is-
sues,

Treaties and reinsurance agree-

ments. will be reviewed at the begin-

hing of,1986. and: it.can be ex;

reinsur ee ae will, preseurise focal
companies to ‘make upward adjuste-
ments to their premium rates.

111

SOUTH AFRICA



West Germany Remains Nation's Closest Partner
(Alan Peat; BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 85) ......... see cece ees 108

Weak Rand Makes Mossel Bay Viable
(Kevin Davie, Christ Cairncross; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) 109

Swedish Reinsurance Firm Withdraws
(Harold Fridjhon, Lesley Lambert; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) 111

Commerce Official Discusses Key Questions

(Andre Van Zyl; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ..cceceseceeeeee 112
Krugerrand Move 'Shows Sanctions Hurt’
(BUSINESS DAY, 15 Nov 85) ..scscscececececeeeeeeceees sees 113
Faber-Castell May Set Up Plant in RSA
(Christ Cairncross; BUSINESS DAY, 12 Nov 85) ........ sees 114
Stanbic Economist Advocate Open Economy
(BUSINESS DAY, 12 Nov 85) ...ssseeeeeee Seen eeceeeee scene 115
Television, VCR Prices Rise
(Cherilyn Ireton; BUSINESS DAY, 12 Nov 85) .....sseeeeeee 116
BUSINESS DAY Circulation Grows
(BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 85) .......... see e eee ee scene eee eaee 117
Briefs
Car Prices Rise 118
SATS Jobs Loss 118
Gems Cache 119
99-Year Leasehold Scheme 119
New Trade Centre 119
Housing for Blacks 120
Software Success 120
Engine Plant Opened 120
Gas Fields Development 120
Wheat Imports Set 121
ESA Freight Line Fails 121
Economy Threatened 121
Cusa, Azactu Merger 122
Mercedes-Benz Invests 122
Olivetti Investment 122
Krugerrand Ban Impact 123
Southern Cape Welcomes Gas Announcement 123
Plan To Train More Cops 123
Trainees Lack English Usage 123
SWAZILAND

Country's Political Scenario Analyzed

(Gerald L'Ange; THE STAR, 4 Nov 85) ....... rrerer rey 124

-~f-



113104
cso:

attracting a trickle of new money
which could turn into a flood if the

dollar showed continued weak-
ness. ‘
Such a flood could easily result
in an acute stock shortage as there '

were always SA institutional buy-
ers in the market for gold shares.
Long-term holdings of the mining
houses also hel,
fairly tight supply. That meant
there was not much downside po-
tential in gold shares.

Austral
Emperor ..
GMK .
Kidston
Metana
Poseidon

USA
Battle Mountain ..
Freeport McMoRan
Homestake Mining

Echo Bay ...
Placer Development .
Campbell Red Lake ..

South Africa
Vaal Reefs

to keep scrip in

1986 Est.
Production
"000 ounces

228
175
616

550
250
400
250

2894
1099
733
280
126

Market
Cap/oz

997
1249
1546
1207
1363

2075
2360
1655

1244
2163
3016
3016.

351
367
316
197
184

@ SA gold share yields outstrip the rest

3400/481

88

1986 Est

P/E

Yield - %



ing:

- South African society. .

view, there is no difference be-
tween these two, They are birds of

. @ feather.

Fortunately these voices are
not the only ones to be heard.
Above the s gounds of turmoil, ahot-

uns, quirts, boycotting children,
Betrol bombs and casspirs, avoice
of black reason still prevails.

Whites should listen attentively,
not allowin,
lieve that all blacks are radicals
who strive for the destruction

‘The voice of black reason asks
for a package of reform compris-,

@An unequivocal and clear

, commitrnent, followed by visible
‘ actions, that the discriminato1

19274
cso:

structure and statutes of apart-
held will be dismantled within a
specified time scale, And, they ar-
gue, if we are uncertain about
what apartheid really means, we,
should ask them, for they have had.
practical experience of it; 4

@ A commitment to abolish in- :
flux control and pass laws before ‘
the end of the next parliamentary ©
session, coupled to an immediate :
moratorium on arrests and con-;
victions in terms of these regula-
tions, and the release of those con-
victed; . :

@ A vigorous housing pro-"..

gramme;

@A priority rating for black
education and training within a
single department; J

@ Access to finance, and busi
ness and industrial areas; !

@ Access to jobs in the civil ser-
vice; %

3400/474

themselves to be-.

4
‘

33

@ The abolition of Administra-~
tion ;

@ De-regulation of the informal
sector in black townships;

@ Citizenship on a par with that
of Asians, whites and coloureds;

@ The implementation of free-
hold title within the next six
months;

@ The institution of a structure

‘which includes blacks who have

ular support, to deal with con-
‘stitutional matters;

@ The immediate release or tri-
al of imprisoned and detained
black leaders;

@ Interim measures making

rovision for black representation
4 central government until such
time as an acceptable constitu-
tional framework is developed;

@ Land reform;

@The implementation of a
positive urbanisation policy,
coupled to rural development ant
‘viable decentralisation policies;

@The institution of regional
task forces, including blacks, to
deal with regional problems and

‘levances while at the same time

facilitating effective communica-’
tion between blacks and relevant
-authorities,

What is being asked for does not
deviate sharply from what is on
the cards, or has been announced
in recent months. The main target
should be to present these objec-
tives as a clear-cut package of
reform, not to be misunderstood
or neutralised by semantic acro-
batics but marketed in a profes-
sional manner. .

And, of course, visible proof

that a new dawn for reform is

+ Indeed in the offing. -.



JPRS“SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

He quotes the association's vice-president, Paul Fabry, as saying: "With a
world trade centre, South Africa could have sanctions from half the world
and still trade effectively through their counterparts in the worldwide
network of friends dedicated to trade and who would welcome the opportunity
to find trade outlets in Southern Africa as well." [Text] [Johannesburg
SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English 27 Oct 85 p 1] /12828

HOUSING FOR BLACKS--Group five Building (East Cape) has launched a R12-
million up-market housing development for blacks in Port Elizabeth. It

says initial response has been good and 30 units have been sold. Group
Five Building bought the building rights for 330 units at Kwamagxaki outside
Port Elizabeth on the Uitenhage road in 1984, They are being developed for
sale on 99-year leasehold, Clients are offered a range of designs costing
from R30000. Group Five Building director Tony Longman says a minimum sales
target of 66 units a year has been set so as to complete the development in
five years. This is the first such upmarket housing scheme undertaken by
Group Five Building, but if it succeeds there are plans for similar develop-
ments elsewhere. [Text] [Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business) in English

3 Nov 85 p 4] /12828

SOFTWARE SUCCESS--South African-produced software for bulk data entry has
scored an international success. Not only has the package moved a significant
amount of ICL computer hardware in SA, it has found its way to Mauritius,
Jamaica and New Zealand. ICL South Africa's Data Entry 30 (DE 20) software
has been widely demonstrated in Hong Kong. The company's UK sales staff

is introducing the product to its customers. According to the programme's
designer, ICL's Janette Vassiliadis, the DE 20 software came about as a
result of the phasing out of the key-edit equipment, which was installed in
172 sites in SA. The disc-based data entry system had been used for bulk
offline data entry at a variety of sites using non-ICL mainframes, such as
Burroughs, IBM, and Univac. [Text] [Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (Business)
in English 3 Nov 85 p 3] /12828

ENGINE PLANT OPENED--Probuilt Diesel, a R7m diesel engine remanufacturing
plan--the first of its kind in SA--was officially opened at Atlantis
yesterday by Industries Minister Dawie de Villiers. A subsidiary of the
quoted NEI Africa group, Probuilt is intended to meet the country's growing
demand for quality remanufactured or reconditioned diesel engines. Designed
to turn out 6000 remanufactured engines a year--a target which the company
hopes to reach within five years--the plant is eventually expected to lead
to foreign exchange savings of at léast R7m a year. De Villiers estimated
the size of the reconditioning market at between 50000 and 70000 diesel
engines a year, worth R250m. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English
1 Nov 85 p 4] /12828

GAS FIELDS DEVELOPMENT--Government is likely to release details of the
development of the two large Mossel Bay gas fields before the end of the year.
A spokesman for the Department of Mineral and Energy Affairs said he could
not give details of the statement except to confirm that it was due to be
made sometime during the next two months. He said he could not comment on
speculation concerning the funding of the project or that it would,cost more
than R4,5bn. It is believed that the fields hold more than 30bn m> of gas.

120



713104
cso:

3400/481

MURRAY & ROBERTS
CENTS
160 PRE-TAX PROFIT
128 mt

Lallflr

Teer 82 82 64 85

| CONTRIBUTIONS TO EARNINGS
hives EI te85,

19%

Sa a
CONSTRUCTION

RELATED:

CONSTRUCTION ‘SUPPLIES. INDUSTRIAL,
INTERNATIONAL, SERVICES, CONSUMER
ENGINEERING PROPERTY PRODUCTS

TOTAL EARNINGS: 7143,2M

months. But it clears the

trees in the last few
system.”

M&R Construction has hada turnover of more than
Ribn every year but the group’s other divisions —
encompassing consumer products and construction-
relates activities — have been bruised by the reces-
sion.

The supplies and service side, linked to general
construction activities, has been through a rough
time and contributions to earnings declined from
19% in 1984 to 12% in 1985.

This sector is operating in a shrinking market, but
Bramwell says this is no reason to abandon any
companies operating in this area.

“We may sell or close a company if it ceases to
perform or if it no longer fits into the group or
division.

“But, in the last four years, we have only disposed
of about 12 such companies.”

The consumer products and industrial sectors did
not perform as well as they had in the past,

“Boundries linked to the motor industry had a
difficult time and their results are down on last

ear. ‘

y “The government is reducing interest rates and
extending hire purchase terms fo create a measure
of stimulation in the economy.

“These moves could react favourably.on motor,
caravan and food sales. We should have a small

recovery off last year’s low during 1986.”

However, he says the short-term relief will be at
the expense of the inflation rate.

Bramwell echoes the civil engineering industry’s
call for urgent privatisation of state an municipal
construction activities.

“The present system is wasteful on plant, skilled
Jabour and resources and from the point of overall
efficiency.

“There are far too many regional-based road
construction units working only 20-30% of the time.
This work must be handed over to the private sector
‘on a competitive basis.”

95



NUMBER OF BANNED PEOPLE RISES
Johannesburg SOWETAN in English 15 Nov 85 p 6
{Article by Themba Molefe]

[Text]

IHE number of banned people in the
: country rose to 14 this week when five’
former’ detainees were subjected to
stringent restrictions to last the duration of the
state of emergency.
Dr Rashid Saloojee, Mr Simon Ratcliffe, Mr
Auret van Heerden, Mr Neal Coleman and Mr‘
“Morns Smithers were slapped with the restrictions
‘which will curtail their movement and activities and
confine them to the Johannesburg magisterial area
_ only hours after being released from four months’
detention. |
Like the nine other
people throughout the
country banned for
years, the-five are pro- «
hibited from taking part |
iin the affairs of trade =
unions and various other .°
_ organisations.
They may not write,

i for any publication nor day before his release.

j attend any gathering. == ©” Dr Saloojee (52), was.
of the restrictions signed "Gmergenay regulations
by the Minister of Law emergency regulations —
and Order, Mr Louis le the etote Of emeen
Grange, may not, with-- « the oe or a :

* out ministerial approval, H an South Africa the

. take part in the activities tule of habeas corpus:

‘of the. United Demo- does not exist.

cratic Front or the.
. . Banned persons can- _
Transvaal Indian Con- | “not be heard in public ?
a Saloojee, the : becausé the Govern-?
va” f Ment says so, They are |
ene President of restricted in terms of the ’
the » Beting prcst Internal Security Act of

defernmliy a
president of the Islamic ; “and again in 1982, ‘

Council of South Africa, ”
was treated under guard
in the psychiatric wing
of the Johannesburg
Hospital for a month -
‘during his detention.
He was transferred '
back to the Diepkloof
Prison on Monday, the

36

JPRS*SSA*85+123
16 December 1985

SOUTH AFRICA

LF Not only are banned +
people prohibited from
attending gatherings or

aking public utter-
ances but their
movements as well are
curtailed. The Minister
of Law and Order may
impose harsh measures
which include house ar-
~ rest.
Some of. the banned
people are:
@ Mrs Nomzamo Win-

‘ nie Mandela has been’’
banned since 1963, the

;- year before her husband
was jailed for life,

Banished

Her current five-year
ban expires on June 30,
1988.

Since 1977 she has
been banished to the
small Free State dorpie
of Brandfort.