167138

JPRS-SSA-87-029

1 APRIL 1987

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Sub-Saharan Africa Report

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JPRS-SSA-87-029

1 APRIL 1987

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REPORT

CONTENTS

BURKINA

KENYA

Progress of Sankara Government Assessed

(AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL, 10 Dec 86) 1

Truck Drivers Face Danger in Uganda, Sudan

(THE WEEKLY REVIEW, 6 Feb 87) 3

Minister^ Warning to 'Disgruntled Elements' Praised

(Editorial; KENYA TIMES, 27 Jan 87) , 5

Clandestine Movement Members Jailed

(Andrew Kuria; DAILY NATION, 4 Feb 87) 6

New Mwakenya Jailings Reported

(THE WEEKLY REVIEW, 6 Feb 87) 7

Farmers Not Paid for Maize Crop

(Francis Muroki; KENYA TIMES, 27 Jan 87) ..., 9

Fruit, Flowers Export Earns Substantial Exchange

(Martin A. S. Mulandi; SUNDAY TIMES, 1 Feb 87) 10

New Housing Construction Techniques Await Implementation

(Solomon Monyenye; KENYA TIMES, 4 Feb 87) 12

Briefs

Geothermal Energy Exploration 13

Telecommunications Institute 13

Italian Aid for Buses 14

Kiambera Hydroelectric Project 14

- a -
ZAMBIA

Cubans Accused of Atrocities

(THE MIRROR, 22 Jan 87) 15

Briefs

Brain Drain to RSA 16

Foreign Reserves Grow 16

SOUTH AFRICA

AFRIKANER/GOVERNMENT

Morgenzon To Be Heart of Oranjewerkers' White Homeland

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 13 Feb 87) 17

Briefs

Judges' Salary Goes Up 19

Government Asks for Additional Billions 19

BLACKS

Commentary Warns Pik Botha Over Homelands Policy

(CITY PRESS, 22 Feb 87) 20

'A-Team' Vigilante Leader Declares Truce With Comrades

(S'bu Mngadi; CITY PRESS, 15 Feb 87) 21

Transkei Energy Department in Economic Crisis

(Stan Mzimba; CITY PRESS, 22 Feb 87).. 22

Colgate To Aid Emerging Black Businesses

(Mick Collins; BUSINESS DAY, 18 Feb 87) 23

Mzimhlophe Hostel Squatters Terrorized by Vigilantes

(Sandile Memela; CITY PRESS, 22 Feb 87) 24

Bophuthatswana Defense Force Expanding

(ARMED FORCES, Feb 87) 25

Briefs

Northeast Venda Ravaged by Drought 27

SOCIOPOLITICAL/OTHER

Radical Opposition Groups Revising Strategies

(David Jackson; SUNDAY TIMES, 22 Feb 87) 28

b -
SADF Suicide Rate Called 'Horrifying'

(John MacLennan; THE SUNDAY STAR, 22 Feb 87) 29

Government To Restrict Student Numbers in Universities

(SUNDAY TIMES, 18 Feb 87) 31

Unrest Affects 260 Schools

(BUSINESS DAY, 24 Feb 87) • 32

Increasing Strike Activity Seen To Have Small Impact

(Malcolm Fothergill; THE SUNDAY STAR, 22 Feb 87) 33

Recent White-on-Black Violence in Pretoria Deplored

(Sejamothopo Motau; SUNDAY STAR, 22 Feb 87) 36

ECONOMIC

U.S. Sanctions Pulling Cargo Volumes to Record Low

(Hamish Mclndoe; BUSINESS DAY, 18 Feb 87) 38

Country's Economy Compared to Taiwan's

(Malcolm Fothergill; THE SUNDAY STAR, 22 Feb 87) 39

Bicsa Director General Discusses Case for UK Investment

(Nick Mitchell Interview; FINANCIAL MAIL, 20 Feb 87)...... 40

Kleu Committee Importance in 'Sanctions Busting' Business

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 20 Feb 87) •••••

41

Trimark To Buy Kodak Laboratories

(Kay Turvey; BUSINESS DAY, 20 Feb 87) • 43

Chamber President Warns Against Trade Balance Complacency

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 20 Feb 87) 44

Activity in International Shipping Market

(BUSINESS DAY, 24 Feb 87) 45

Business Leader Discusses Outline for New Constitution

(Hans Middelmann; FINANCIAL MAIL, 13, 20 Feb 87).... 46

Briefs

Sweden Cuts Imports 51

No Shortage of Jobs for Engineers 51

CPI Inflation Rate Drops 2 Percent 51

Samcor Denies Severing Ford Links 51

INDUSTRIAL/S&T

Telkor Acquires AEI Henley

(ARMED FORCES, Feb 87) 53

- c -
Manufacturing Company To Invest R45 Million in RwaZulu

(SOUTH AFRICAN DIGEST, 6 Feb 87) . .. 54

Boosting Treatment Capacity at Hartebeestfontein Gold Mine

(Brendan Ryan; FINANCIAL MAIL, 6 Feb 87) 55

ESCOM's Ash Wastes To Be Used in Industry, Building

(BUSINESS DAY, 5 Feb 87) 57

New Way To Cut Pollution From Coal Dump Fires

(Peter Stacey; BUSINESS DAY, 5 Feb 87).. 58

Spray-On Fireproof Sealant Developed for Mines

(Peter Stacey; BUSINESS DAY, 24 Feb 87).. 59

Glass Recycling Project Reported

(SOUTH AFRICAN DIGEST, 6 Feb 87) 60

Need To Develop Stainless Steel Industry Addressed

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 16 Jan 87) 61

Motor Industry Sales Figures Up

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 13 Feb 87) 63

Ways To Expand, Modernize Fighter, Attack Forces Addressed

(Helmoed-Romer Heitman; ARMED FORCES, Feb 87) 64

Black Urbanization, Need for 'Inward Industrialization'

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 20 Feb 87) 71

Sanlam: Consumers* Extra Purchasing Power May Boost GDP

(Chris Cairncross; BUSINESS DAY, 23 Feb 87) 75

Economist Predicts Decreasing Price Spiral Hope for Consumers

(THE SUNDAY STAR, 22 Feb 87) 76

Inflation Rate To Stay Low, by Sheryl Raine 76

Consumers 'Hit Hard' by Price Increases 77

Statistics Reveal South Africans Saving More

(BUSINESS DAY, 23 Feb 87) 79

Mossel Bay Offshore Gas Project To Boost East Cape Economy

(BUSINESS DAY, 20 Feb 87; THE STAR, 23 Feb 87) 80

Employment Opportunities for Thousands, by Mick Collins,

and Chris Cairncross 80

Local Residents Concerned 81

Rand Mines Seeking To Open New Mining Projects

(Andrew McNulty; FINANCIAL MAIL, 13 Feb 87) 82

- d -
Small Business 'Industrial Hives' Successfully Employ Jobless

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 20 Feb 87) 85

Maize Farmers Lose Millions Due to Drought

(Gerald Reilly; BUSINESS DAY, 24 Feb 87) 86

Flourishing Black Taxi Market Boosts Minibus Sales

(Normal Shepherd; BUSINESS DAY, 24 Feb 87).... 87

Briefs

Building Plans Down 88

Car Prices Up 88

House Prices Down 17 Percent 88

Prototype TV Set . 89

New Lightweight Welding Cloth 89

Cutting Pipe Costs 89

New Ro-Ro Boats 89

Quinto Hazell Pumps Arrive 90

Lascon Links With Germany 90

Heavy Transport Industry in Crisis' 90

/12223
BURKINA

PROGRESS OF SAMARA GOVERNMENT ASSESSED

London AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL in English 10 Dec 86 pp 4-5

[Text]

'I am looking for funds to move Burkina Faso to

the Pacific Ocean, somewhere near Australia,' says

Captain Thomas Sankara, the country's president.

•There we will not have neighbours who accuse us

of fomenting a plot against them.'

Sankara's radical government causes discomfort

among some of his neighbours, notably Mali, Cöte

d'lvoire, and Togo, which accused Burkina Faso ot

implication in the 23 September coup attempt in

Lome (AC Vol 27 No 20). Sankara's personal

humour and charm - not to mention his politics -

have captivated many young Africans, and his

government remains a potent symbol of revolution

both within Burkina Faso and within the region.

Sankara came to power on 4 August 1983, supported by key factions of the armed forces. He

was immediately popular with youth in particular,

capitalising on the widespread feeling that the country suffered from French neo-colonialism. Sankara

promised to bring citizens further into the decisionmaking process. He aimed to shift the power of the

government away from the hereditary chiefs and the

civil service and to enfranchise new groups, especially

the young and women. Both in this programme and

in his personal charisma, as well perhaps as in

the more sinister aspects of his rule, Sankara is

reminiscent of the young Sekou Toure.

Sankara's government, the Conseil national de la

revolution (CNR), is well-entrenched, despite two

reported coup plots in May 1984 and June 1985.

These uprisings were repressed vigorously. Seven

people were executed in connection with the hrsi

coup attempt, and dozens arrested and tortured after

the second. The man responsible for the secret police

is the fearsome Vincent Sigue. The security services

evoke considerable fear among Burkinabe. This i.

compounded by the fact that the precise membership

of the governing council, the CNR, remains a secrc:.

It certainly includes Sankara and the three tnends

who with him form the country's ruling group.

Apart from Sankara, they are Justice Minister Capt.

Blaise Compaore, Defence Minister Major JeunBaptiste Boukari Lingani, and Economic Development Minister Capt. Henri Zongo.

Sankara has succeeded in gaining a reputation as

an uncorrupt and dynamic president. He has made

a radical attempt to shift the base of state power

from those groups on whom it previously depended

and to create new constituencies. Broadly speaking

this has damaged the interests of the chiefs, civil

servants, political party activists, trade unionists and

big traders. Crucial :o this policy has been ;;ie

institution of a new organ of government in me

Committees for the Defence of the Revolution

(CDRs), set up in every village and urban quarter.

The CDRs have displaced the traditional chiefs as

the key elements in local government, and indeed

chiefs were originally excluded from membership oi

the CDRs. But the CDRs are also a more centralised

organ of government than the chieftaincies. The

local committees were created by a decision of the

National General Secretariat of CDRs, which continues to control them under the leadership of Capt.

Pierre Ouedraogo, an important member of the new

apparatus who is unpopular with almost everyone

except Sankara. The CDRs are obliged to conform

to the ideology of the Political Orientation Speech

made by Sankara on 2 October 1983 and revered as

the 'revolutionary guide for the people's happiness.'

The government has become much more centralised. Radical measures are ordered from the top, in

the military manner. Fundamental measures imposed

in this way, without formal consultation, include the

nationalisation of land, the abolition of the hated

capitation tax, the imposition of heavy taxes on civil

servants, and the suspension of most private sector
rents during 1985. There was even a plan, never

promulgated, to oblige husbands 10 give half their

incomes to their wives.

While the government has nurtured the CDRs, it

has gradually excluded the small left-wing political

parties which were instrumental in its early days.

This process began in August 1984 with the dismissal

from the government of the most important leftwing party, the pro-Soviet Ligue pathotique pour le

developprnem (L1PAD) and the arrest of many of

its members. Some former L1PAD chiefs have been

brought back into favour after their release, such as

Arba Diallo. He was Sankara's first foreign affairs

minister and is now a presidential adviser. Former

Information Minister Adama Toure has also been

rehabilitated. A schoolteacher by profession, he once

taught both Sankara and Compaore. However the

future of his brother former LI PAD leader Soumane

Toure, released from detention in September 1986,

is still unsettled. He is a close friend of Sankara.

Another notable rehabilitation is that of former

President Sangoule Lamizana, who is president of a

national elders' association. His daughter is married

to Defence Minister Lingani.

Government ministries are now shared among four

parties, all that remains of the originial union of the

left. They are:

• The Organisation revolulionnaire miliiaire (ORM), formerly

known as I he Reproupement lies officien cdnununisies (ROC).

This party, created in 1978. includes all arm> officers. It enables

the government to politicise the officer corps more easily and

has undermined support for LIPAD.

• The Union des luues conununisles (ULC). Led by Higher

Education Minister Valere Some, this is especially strong in the

University of Ouagadougou. Its members resent the recent

dissolution of university CDRs by Pierre Ouedraogo.

• The Union des communisies burkinabe (UCB). This was created

by Sankara himself, with the aim of weakening the b'LC.

The UCB's leader is in fact the rector of the University of

Ouagadougou, a close friend of Sankara and Pierre Ouedraogo.

• The Groupe communisie burkinabe (GCB). a faction of the

pro-Albanian communist party. The GCB is close to Compaore.

It represents the faction of the communist part)' which is willing

to work with the Sankara government.

The communist party, the Parti communisie burkinahe, has never been close to the Sankara government. Its traditional base at the University of

Ouagadougou has been under attack. Many party

members have lost their jobs' and student members

of the PCB have lost their government grants. There

is no other formal opposition within the country.

The only non-government newspaper, L'Observateur. had its offices burned down in 1984. The

powerful trade unions have been tamed and grouped

in the Union des travaiileurs burkinabe.

The government has weakened the old political

parties of the left by encouraging splits. It has

however introduced new political constituencies,

notably through the revolutionary CDRs, under

Pierre Ouedraogo's close control, and by the emancipation of women. While the CDRs are regarded in

some areas as unrepresentative and brutal, the theme

of women's emancipation has tapped a rich seam of

support. Every CDR has at least one female member.

There is also a parallel women's organisation, the

Union des femmes burkinabe. Moreover the present

government contains no less than five women, of

whom the most powerful is probably Josephine

Ouedraogo, minister of social affairs and solidarity.

The Sankara government has also begun to

restructure the army, another pillar of the old

regime. AH the old military academies have been

closed down and only one new one has been created,

at ¥o\ the paratroopers' base from which Sankara

launched his coup. The officer corps has been augmented by the promotion of young officers commuted to the revolution. At the sariie time, the role of

the army has been changed'by the creation of a

popular militia. Every citizen aged between 20 and

35 is now liable to national service.

Civil servants now go to work in track suits on

Mondays and Thursdays in preparation for the spon

sessions which have been introduced in all ministries

and public companies. This is part of an attempt to

inject new life into the civil service, which parallels

an effort'to stamp out corruption. The government

has established popular tribunals to deal.with official

corruption in particular and also to replace the

French-style legal system which it inherited. Nevertheless, there have been some lapses:

• Lieutenant Daouda Traore. appointed m early 1985 to take

charge of public sector rents, was rumoured to have emhez/.led

large amounts of money. At one point the rumour was so

intense that he was obliged to appear on national television to

give an explanation. ,','' '

• In June 1986 ari army plane, taking of"! from Garango. ran

into a crowd and killed at least 30 people, or 20 according to

official figures. The government said that this happened during

a military training exercise. In fact the plane had been commandeered for private use by Lingani. the minister of defence and

number three in the government hierarchy; to lake him to

'Garaneo for a 'family ' funeral»

/9274

CSO: 3400/48
KENYA

TRUCK DRIVERS FACE DANGER IN UGANDA, SUDAN

Nairobi THE WEEKLY REVIEW in English 6 Feb 8? P 13

[Text]

KENYAN drivers of the long distance

hauliers operating to Sudan through

northern Uganda claim that they do so at

the risk of losing their lives, vehicles ami

cargo because the security situation in the

war-ravaged areas of Kenya's twin

neighbours has deteriorated so much so

that acts of banditry are a reccurent

phenomenon. According to the chairman

Of the Kenya Transporters Association

(KTA), Mr. Mwangi Mathai, and the

Sudanese ambassador to Kenya, Mr.

Omar el-Sheikh, the situation is not that

bad, and the few cases that have been,

highlighted in the press are but isoliited

incidents. Mathai issued a press statement last week saying that his association

had no complaints about the travel

arrangements made by the Sudanese and

Ugandan authorities to provide escort

set-vices for Kenyan transporters plying

the routes through their war-torn areas.

Orhar also made allusions to similar

arrangements last month following

reports in the Kanu-owned Kenya Times

that about 74. long distance hauliers and

their crew were stranded in' southern

Sudan since late last year following the

eruption of fresh violence in the area.

Mathai's statement came in the wake

of ä report by the Sunday Standard of

February 1 that his association was set to

meet this week to discuss the security of

long distance drivers in northern Uganda

after press reports that fighting in the

region had escalated in the areas around

Lira and Kitgum.. Earlier, it had been

reported in the local press that the roads

in those areas had been rendered

•impassable by the anti-Ugandan government rebels. Mathai dismissed the Standard report, saying that the meeting was

not in any way necessitated by the

insecurity in Uganda and Sudaii but was

just a routine meeting. Said he, "Some

isolated problems of sundry nature must

be expected to occur from time to time in

transit but these should be viewed in their

right perspective". He argued that some

of these problems, like the collapse of the

bridge linking Nimule and Juba in Sudan

which had reportedly stranded 100 trucks

in the rebel-held area near the border with

Uganda, were not of the nature that

would require the association to appeal

for government intervention because

"bridges collapse all over the world". The

difference, however, is that it has not yet

been ascertained that the bridge was not

destroyed by thy combatants operating in

the area, and that the situation there is.

far from normal, despite the escort

arrangements made by the Sudanese

government. The attacks on Kenyan

drivers that have so far been reported in

the local press have occurred despite the

fact that the convoys are guarded by

soldiers of the regular armies of the two

governments. For example, last December, seven Kenyan drivers were shot dead

by 'uniformed men near I'akwach in

northern Uganda when their convoy consisting of 40 trucks was heading for Juba,

Sudan's second largest city. Again, early

last month, it was reported by the Kenya

Times, that armed rebels operating

around Tororo in Eastern Uganda

attacked a convoy of Kenya-bound buses,

killing five policemen detailed to escort

the Kenyans in the vehicles back to

Kenya, following the Ugandan

• government's decision to repatriate them
to their homes. This allowed that the

attacks by the rebels were not confined to

freight trucks nlone but are also extended

to civilian transports.

The transport problems in the two

countries are brought about by the fact

that the governments there are fighting

wars against guerrillas opposed to them.

In Uganda, armed rebels said to be loyal

to former president, Dr. Milton Obote,

who was overthrown nearly two years ago,

are fighting for (he downfall of

Museveni's regime, while in' southern

Sudan, Dr. .John (Jarang's Sudan Peoples

liberation Army (SPLA) is fighting for

the secession of the region from the rest of

the country. For the rebels, trucks carrying foodstuffs and other goods destined for

the region's famine stricken inhabitants

are legitimate targets. At times the

drivers of (he trucks are also caught in the

crossfire between the antagonists and

cannot move for fear of their lives. Said

one such victim who managed to escape,

"We found ourselves inbetween two

hostile parlies. Either way was not'open

to us due to (he heavy fighting going on in

the area (southern Sudan). We were virtually stranded at the spot and have gone without proper amenities since then".

Such tales are legion but the authorities

on either side seem intent on playing,

down the gravity of the situation prevailing in (he regions.

/9274

CSO: 3400/47
KENYA

MINISTER'S WARNING TO 'DISGRUNTLED ELEMENTS' PRAISED

Nairobi KENYA TIMES in English 27 Jan 87 p 6

[Editorial: "Whose 'Spokesmen1 Are These Gentlemen..,?]

[Text] Kenya's Local Government Minister, Mr Moses Mudavadi, has warned all

those disgruntled elements, particularly the ones who have been hiding behind

church smokescreens, to desist from their vain attempts aimed at destabilising

our Government and society.

Addressing a constituency goodwill delegation at the weekend, at his Mululu

home in Emuhaya, the Minister disclosed that the authorities were aware of

the ulterior motives of the self-disgruntled elements who have been 'singing

to the tune of their foreign masters."

As Mr Mudavadi so rightly lamented: "These characters are all-out to frustrate national unity and ruin development.''

Indeed, as we all know, some of the vocal clerics who have been politicising

highly-slanted anti-Party "sermons," misinterpreting the Kenyan constitutional

stipulation of freedom of conscience and expression, have been doing so with

a view to pleasing their chairborne foreign mentors abroad.

It is particularly disturbing to note that some of the erratic clerics have

been trying to usurp the functions of their churches' respective synods and

other caucuses, vainly trying to pose as "spokesmen" and feigning unique

fanaticism in the process. If they won't shut up voluntarily, surely, there s

nothing wrong in gagging them.

/9274

CSO: 3400/47
CLANDESTINE MOVEMENT MEMBERS JAILED

Nairobi DAILY NATION in English 4 Feb 87 p 32

[Article by Andrew Kuria]

KENYA

[Text]

The organising secretary of

the Nakuru branch of the

Kenya African National

Union, K i m u n y a

Kamana, and another

Nakuru businessman,

Remijioh Mwangi Mathenge

Kagia, were jailed for four

years each yesterday for

taking an unlawful oath and.

being members of a clandestine movement.

Hut in mitigation, Kamana

said that two "prominent"

Nakuru politicians were also

members of the movement. "During the day they condemn the

movement but at night they meet

with members of the movement,"

Kamnna told the court.

The two businessmen, both

aged 59, were sentenced by the

Chief Magistrate, Mr H. H.

Buch, in Nairobi, and given 14

days to appeal.

During submissions, the Assistant Deputy Public Prosecutor,

Mr Bernard Chunga, paid that a

former MP for Nakuru North, Mr

Koigi wa Wamwere, had been a

member of the movement.

Mr Chunga said that Mr

Wamwere had addressed a crowd

during an oat hing ceremony in a

forest in June, 1985.

Kagia was charged with three

counts: Taking an unlawful oath

on May 8, 1985, joining the clandestine movement and failing to

stop seditious publication being

printed and distributed.

Kamana admitted that last

June 15 at Ngachura in Nakuru

he took an unlawful oath and

herame a member of the clandestine movement.

Mr Chunga said that while

Kagia was a businessman in

Nakuru he befriended another

businessman, Herman Marine

Nderi (already jailed for a similar

offence).

The two had started discussing

politics and Nderi had talked

about the Covern men t's

shortcomings. The court heard

that it. was in April 1985 that

Kagia learnt of the existence of

the clandestine movement.

Mr Chunga said that, later

while visiting Nderi, Kagia met

with a lawyer, Mr Mirugi Kariuki

(now in detention) and had heard

more about the movement. Kagia

was invited for a ride in the

lawyer's car on May 8, 1985.

"They drove to Kariuki's house

where they found other people

gathered. The accused was taken

to an inner room at the servants'

quarters where he found a man

wearing an overcoat. He was told

that he was going to take an oath

t o bi n d himself to the

movement," said Mr Chunga.

The court heard, that Kagia,

without, being forced or compelled, took the oath and recited

words binding him to membership of the movement.

"Kagia" was aware of the object

of the movement, which was to

bring to downfall the Government of Kenya. He made

subscription towards the

movement," said Mr Chunga.

The court heard that in August

1985 Kagia and another man distributed copies of the seditious

publications.

In mitigation, Kagia said he

was a father of six children all in

school. He said he had been loyal

to the Kenya Government and

the President, and prayed for

mercy. He said he was sorry for

having been misled by people he

thought were intelligent and who

were younger than him.

Referring to Kamana's case,

Mr Chunga said the businessman

had met the detained lawyer, Mr

Kariuki, when he (accused) had n,

civil case.

Later, in June 1985, Kamana

met Wamwere at the lawyer's

office. During discussions

Kamana had learnt of the clandestine movement. Later on the

same day, Kamana and Mr

Wamwere drove into a forest and

joined a group of 30 people.

Mr Chunga said Mr Wamwere

addressed the crowd, telling them

that members of the group would

now start taking an oath to bind

themselves to the movement.

Mr Chunga said that last June

15 Kamana was taken to a house

in Ngachura near Nakuru where

he was oathed. He became a

member of the movement and

pledged to keep it secret.

In mitigation, Kamana said he

had an 85-year-old father and an

80r.year-old mother who he was

taking care of. He said he had a

large family.

Kamana said he had failed to

report the incident because two

prominent Nakuru politicians

used to condemn the movement

during the day but met with the

members of the group at night.

Kamana said he was sorry for

having been involved, and urged

people involved in the movement

to surrender to the Government.

/9274

CSOj 3400/47
KENYA

NEW MWAKENYA JAILINGS REPORTED

Nairobi THE WEEKLY REVIEW in English 6 Feb 87 pp 7-9

[Text]

THREE more people were last week

sentenced to various prison terms in the

continuing crackdown against members

of the underground political movement,

Mwakenya. Among them was a controversial Nakuru politician and businessman,

John Maina Kamangara, 37, who was

jailed for 15 months for failing to report

the publication and printing of a seditious

document known as "Pambana". During

the hearing of the case, the name of

another controversial Nakuru politician

and former detainee, Mr. Koigi

Wamwere, who is now living in self-exile

in Norway, was mentioned; it was the first

time Wamwere had been mentioned as

being associated with Mwakenya. Also

mentioned was the runaway novelist, Mr

Ngugi wa Thiong'o.

The assistant deputy public prosecutor,

Mr. Bernard Chunga, told the court that

Kamangara was introduced to the

activities of Mwakenya by Wamwere in

1985. Chunga told the Nairobi chief

magistrate, Mr. H.H. Buch, that

Kamangara and Wamwere had discussed

the shortcomings of. the Kenya government, and the publication of seditious

documents, whose objective was to bring

down the government by causing disaffection and hatred. Chunga said that

Kamangara was also told that the

seditious publications were being

published and printed by Mwakenya.

Soon after he quietly left the country

mid-last year, Wamwere wrote a letter to

Kenyan newspapers, claiming that the

reason he had left the country was that

the Kenya government was after him. He

said that after he stood as a candidate in

the parliamentary by-election in Nakuru

North last year, the government had

denied him his human and democratic

rights, making it difficult for him to

survive.

It was the second time that wa Thiong'o's

name^ had been mentioned since the

move a'gainst Mwakenya began early last

.year.' It was first mentioned by a

Karatina-based author and publisher of

;Kikuyu plays and folklore, Mr. Gakaara

'Wanjau, the only Kenyan so far to have

confessed to involvement with Mwakenya

and then to have been freed, who said

that he had learned of the existence of

Mwakenya through wa Thiong'o. Last

week, Chunga told the court that

Kamangara learned through Wamwere

that Pambana was being distributed by.

wa Thiong'o.

A fortnight ago, another Nakuru politician and a close associate of Wamwere's,

Mr. Mirugi Kariuki, was also implicated

in Mwakenya involvement. Kariuki, who

is currently in detention, was mentioned

by Chunga as having introduced a jailed

Nakuru councillor, Joseph Karuiru

Miano, to the Mwakenya movement.

Kamangara, Wamwere and Kariuki have

all contested the Nakuru North seat in

the past but only Wamwere has ever been

successful.

Kamangara has been recurrent brushes

with the law since his 1983 bid to enter

parliament, when he was several times

questioned by the authorities on remarks

he had made during public campaigning.

Soon after the elections, he was jailed for

six months for behaving in a manner

likely to cause a breach of the peace when

he threatened to kill the then Nakuru

town Kanu women's wing chairperson,

Mrs. Rahab Wanjiru Evans. The day

before his conviction and sentence, President Daniel arap Moi publicly denounced
Kamangara for preaching tribalism.

Kamangara, who had reportedly told

Evans that she had sold the Kikuyus to

the Kalenjins during the 1983 election,

was rebuked by the trial magistrate, now a High Court judge, Mr. Justice U.S.

Omolo, for aiding the perpetration of

tribalism and for making remarks that

had caused concern to the president.

After his release from prison,

Kamangara maintaineda low profile

until early last year, when the Nakuru

North seat fell vacant following the

suicide of Mr. Francis Kimosop. In the

subsequent by-election, Kamangara was

picked up and questioned about his candidature. Two months after the election,

.won by Mr. Edward Bommett, both

Kamangara's and Kariuki's homes were

thoroughly searched by Nakuru police on

warrants issued by Nakuru senior resident magistrate Mr. Isaac Wambilliangah. Two months later,

Kamangara was arrested and jointly

charged with seven others with holding an

illegal meeting at Hongai. He was released

on bond aftera few days in remand and

his case was fixed for hearing next month,

but he was subsequently re-arrested.

Nothing was heard of him until last week,

when he was jailed on his own plea of

guilty.

Kamangara pleaded in court for

leniency, saying that he isa diabetic and;

has six children anda mentally-ill wife.

He told the court that he was remorseful

and that he had condemned wa Thiong'o

for distributing seditious documents.

Also jailed last week wasa trainee journalist with the Nyegezi Institute of Mass

Communication in Arusha, Tanzania,

James Achira. Achira was sentenced to

two years in prison for beinga member of

the Mwakenya movement and supporting

it financially. Achira, who has worked in

the past ona freelance basis with both the

Nation and the Standard newspapers in

Nairobi, admitted having been initiated

into Mwakenya in 1981 and participating

in the group's activities from then until he

was arrested. A former police constable and the

proprietor ofa security guards firm in>

Nakuru, Herman Marine Nderi, was

jailed for4J years ona charge of taking an

illegal oath to bind him toa clandestine

movement.

The three convictions brought to about

60 those jaided in connection with

Mwakenya since March of last year. Eight

other people have been detained.

On Wednesday of this week, another

Nakuru politician stunneda Nairobi

court when he claimed in mitigation that

'the powerful Nakuru Kanu branch chair- . man and nominated MP, Mr. Karhiki

Chotara, has been involved in the

Mwakenya oath-taking activities. The

Nakuru Kanu branch organising

secretary, Kimunya Kamana, who was

sentenced to four years imprisonment for

taking an oath to bind himself to the : movement, also mentioned another

influential Nakuru politician, Cllr.

William Lasoi of Bahoti Ward in the

Nakuru county council. Kamana who

admitted taking the illegal oath, claimed

that, after he took it, he informed both

.Chotara and I«soi about his involvement,

and that they seemed to appreciate and

acknowledge it.

Also jailed on Wednesday wasa

Nakuru businessman, Hemjioh Mwangi

Mot.henge, who receiveda four-year

sentence for taking the same oath.

■■'Kamnna 59, attracted public attention

in July of last year when he announced

that, nine councillors of the Nakuru

municipal council had been suspended

from their Kanu offices. Among those the

branch had suspended, according to

Kamana, were the mayor, Cllr. Daniel

Kanyi, and his deputy, Cllr. Raphael

iKorir. On the same day that the purported suspensions hit the headlines, President Daniel arap Moi rebuked Kamnna ' and directed that he be disciplined for

acting contrary to the Kanu constitution.

Ina matter of days, Chotara announced

the suspension of Kamana, even before

ithe branch executive committee had met

'and ratified it. Kmnana's suspension and

the suspensions ofa number of Nakuru

politicians were lifted in November by

recommendation of the party's disciplinary committee, and the Kanu

National executive committee approved

it.

/9274

CSO , 3400/47
FARMERS NOT PAID FOR MAIZE CROP

Nairobi KENYA TIMES in English 27 Jan 87 p 3

[Article by Francis Muroki]

KENYA

[Text]

PREPARATIONS for this year's maize crop

in I raus Nzoia District may conic to .1

standstill because some 200.000 fanners in

the area have not been paid lor their last

years crop by the National Cereals and

Produce Board.

The 1 tans Nzoia District Kanu branch

chairman, Mr Masinde Muliro said yesterday that this may affect the entire country's

food situation if the government does not

step in now and ensure that the farmers have

been paid their dues.

Addressing a press conference in Parliament Buildings. Mi Muliro, who is also the

MP for Kitale East, said he represents one of

the major maize growing districts in Kenya.

He said close to three quarters of a million

bags of maize have not been paid for by the

National Cereals and Produce Board, and

this has greatly affected the farmers who

cannot go about their daily matters, which

include paying their children's school fees...

"The non payment of maize to the farmers

in Trans Nzoia district has caused a major

social problem in that children selected to

join secondary schools have not been able to

report to the schools tor luck

of fees", hisaid

Saying that Trans Nzoi;i

District is the backbone ol

food production and

nothing should be done to

detiact the (aimers from

this noble cause of food

production, Mr Muliro said

the NCPB should only bin

maize lot sttategic reserves.

The National Cereals and

Pioduce Board must buy all

the maize it requires as

strategic reserve, whatever

remains should go to the

millers direct, who should

stock sufficient maize for

tlieii stores foi the purpose

of milling throughout the

year", he said.

Mr Muliro congratulated

Piesident Moi on his timely

and welcome directive on

maize payments. He said

maize farmers heeded the

call by the government of

the policy on food

self-sufficiency, and today

Kenya is one of the few

countries in Africa that is

able to feed itSclf.

/9274

CSO: 3400/47
KENYA

FRUIT, FLOWERS EXPORT EARNS SUBSTANTIAL EXCHANGE

Nairobi SUNDAY TIMES in English 1 Feb 87 p 6

[Article by Martin A. S, Mulandi]

[Text] FRESH horticultural exports

by air have continued rising

steadily compared to previous

.years. Horticultural produce

from Kenya flown by air to

Europe and the Middle East

increased from 3,224 tons in

1970 to 36,211 tons in 1986

realising free on board value

of K£ 0.3 million and more

than shs 630 million

respectively.

This represents a substantial

foreign exchange earning for

the country and makes horticultural exports one of the

most important foreign exchange earners. If we include

the freight charges paid to

foreign carriers, the total

foreign exchange received in

the country exceeds shs 850

million. This does not

however, include processed

pineapples, passion fruit juices

or other processed horticultural products. For the

first time exports of bananas

and pineapples were undertaken by sea.

Although this growth has

been significant, the industry

has continued encountering

constraints like, inadequate

cargo capacity compared to

production capacity, nigh cost

of production as a result of

low yields compared to other

competing countries, high cost

of packaging, lack of proper

handling, pre-cooling and

storage facilities prior to

export.

The main importing countries for Kenya fresh horticultural produce in 1986 were

United Kingdom (43.71 per

cent), West Germany (13.93

per cent), France (13.07 per

cent) Belgium (4.7 per cent),

Holland (12.63 per cent) and

Switzerland (2.25 per cent). In

1986 United Kingdom was the

largest market for Kenyan

fresh horticultural produce,

importing 15,827 tons. The

Federal Republic of Germany

was the second largest market

in Europe with 5,042 tons.

France was the third largest

market with 4,731 tons followed by Holland 4,574 tons and

Saudi Arabia 1,933 tons,

:Other .noticeable markets

which imported rather low

quantities of Kenyan horticultural produce were Italy,

Sweden and the United Arab

Eninaies. The continuous

• hop of the United Arab

Emirates is as a result of a bah

on mango imports from

Kenya. ■■'

Tropical fruits exported

from Kenya including pineapples, mangoes, and avocados

had an export volume of 5,928

tons in 1986, earning more

than £7.2 million. The main

off-season vegetables exported

to those countries are French

beans and courgettes.

French beans had a total

volume of 9,096 in 1986, earning £9.9 million. Vegetables

of Asian origin which are

mainly exported to the United

Kingdom had an approximate

export volume of 8,264 tons,

earning £ 5.4 million.

Cut flowers including carnations, roses, alstromeria,

10
itiolucella and statice exported

in 1986 reachedä quantity of

8,264 tons earning £11.5

million. Cut flowers are now

playinga major role in this industry and we expect a record

increase in the next two years

after the introduction of roses

which are increasingly becoming popular!

More than 75 per cent of the

exports are air-freighted front

January to May and October

to December; These periods

coincide with the European

winter season when the bulk

of the exports is made on

Eüropeäri off-seasön produce.

TROPICAL FRUITS: . The main tfopkal fruits exported from Kenya are

pineapples, avocadoes and

mangoes. The exports of passion fruits, pawpäw and

melons are growing.

Among trje tropical fruits,

mangoes had the highest

quantity exported in 1986.

Their total exports amounted

to 2,941 tons of which 59.85

per cent was exported to Saudi

Arabia, 17.45 per" cent to the

United Kingdom, 2.66 per

cent to France and 5.50 per

cent to West Germany.

Pineapples were »exported

throughout the year, but had

least quantities in the months

of March, April, Septerhber,

October, November. The

main variety grown in Kenya

is the "smooth cayeene".

The export of mangoes to

the Middle East has drastically reduced considerable waste

and farmers are realisinga

very high price Compared to

• the period when we only exported to Europe. Further expansion of the market will depend on our ability to introduce better varieties like apples, Tommy Aitkens, Kent,

Van Dyke, etc.

Total exports of avocadoes

amounted to 2,150 tons in

1986. France and the United

Kingdom were the most important markets for avocadoes

and absorbed 30.55 per cent

and 29,73 per cent of Kenya

avocadoes respectively. West

Germany followed with 22.50

per Cent and Holland with

7.88 per cent.' Avocadoes were

mainly exported from April

through September 1986.

The main off-season

vegetables exported from

Kenya are French beans and

Courgettes. Total export of

French beans in 1986 reached

9,096 tons. France and the

United Kingdom were the

tnain importers of French

beans absorbing 37.10 per cent

and 36.50 per cent respectively; followed by Belgium which

absorbed 13.93 per cent. The

greater quantities of French

beans were exported

throughout the year. The export of French beans could be

increased substantially if the

quality is maintained and

especially the introduction of

new seeds.

Export of courgettes continued to drop and reached

2,307, the bulk of it to the UK.

Other countries, especially

after the entry of Spain to the

EEC are taking an upper

hand. Our survival is|0nly in

superior quality.

ASIAN VEGETABLES:

The main Asian vegetables

grown in Kenya arc moOli

(Chinese raddish), tindorä

(ridge guard), drumstick,

ditdhi, Chinese cabbage,

chillies, birinjalis (aubergines),

okfa, karcla and herbs such as

limbdo arid curry leaf: These

vegetables are exported

throughout the year and their

demand is fairly evenly

distributed. Total exports of

these vegetables amounted to

9,320 tons in 1986 of which

90.21 per cent was exported to

the United Kingdom. The bulk

of these vegetables are grown

by small-holders and no doubt

an improvement in quality will

contribute to further increases. It is in this area that

inspection services need:

tightening.

'CUT FLOWERS:

Cut flowers were mainly exported to West Germany

which absorbed 42.38 per

cent, Holland 42.96 per cent,

United Kingdom 6.07 per cent

and Switzerland 2.50 per cent.

Cut flowers are available for

export between September and

May. However* of late export

of flowers continue during the

summer months.

CONCLUSION:

To ensure further upward

trend of fresh horticulture

produce for export and the

total earnings from the horticultural industry, it is expected that the present

markets will expand further

and additional markets found

to meet the needs of the industry as production increases. The need to diversify

to sea-transportation is more

demanding than ever. The

need to increase our processed product range is also overdue if we Can overcome certain

cost constraints as packaging

and yields at the production

level.

The introduction of export

varieties of higher value will

continue to ensure that

available cargo space is effectively used in terms of foreign

exchange remitted per unit ex

ported. Most of the present

produce will need continued

improvement in quality.

79274

CSÖJ 3400/47

11
NEW HOUSING CONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUES AWAIT IMPLEMENTATION

Nairobi KENYA TIMES in English 4 Feb 87 p 11

[Article by Solomon Monyenye]

KENYA

[Text]

THE University of Nairobi is

engaged in a very important

research on low cost housing

for developing countries but

the results of the research are

unlikely to be put into use'

unless the government makes

major changes in housing

policy in the country.

The Housing Research and

Developing Unit (HRDU),

one of the departments in the

College of Architecture,

University of Nairobi, is experiencing uneasiness over the

delay in accepting the kind of

houses the research findings

are recommending. According

to the director of HRDU, Dr

P.M. Syagga, the present bylaws governing the construction of housing in the urban

areas are such that they

militate against the kind of

houses the university research

is recommending.

One of the most important

breajcthroughs the HRDU has

made so far is, as was clearly

demonstrated during the

Nairobi International Show,

the application of appropriate

technology for the construction of low cost houses. So far

the unit has proved that the

country can cut down the cost

of building a decent permanent house by 50 per cent of

what it normally costs using

concrete blocks, stones, cement, sands, marcba

tiles,asbestos or corrugated

iron sheets.

The appropriate technology

is utilising the local materials

which are in plentiful supply

as an alternative to the very

expensive material now in use

for the erecting of permanent

houses.

According to Dr Syagga,

the materials that has so far

been researched on and found

suitable through demonstration projects throughout the

country by HRDU include

stabilised soil blocks, natural

fibre cement tiles, and sisalcement sheets. These materials

when used have cut down the

cost of a house by 50 per cent.

This has been proved during

the construction of various

teachers' houses in Busia and

South Nyanza districts, houses

in Korogocho Primary

School, Nairobi, Kawangware

Community Centre and Karen

Technological Research Centre in Nairobi.

But the use of these alternative materials in urban areas

on a commercial basis is

bound to hit a snag. Under the

existing local government bylaws, there is no way the findings of the research arc going to benefit the wananchi in

the towns unless these building

by-laws and standards are

revised.

According to the existing

by-laws, said to have been formulated way back in 1948, only concrete blocks, stones, cement, sand, corrugated iron

sheets,mareba tiles and

asbestos can be used to erect

houses in the city and other urban centres. The use of the

alternative material researched upon by the HRDU will,

therefore, be illegal unless the

by-iaws are revised.

The National Housing Corporation which is a front runner in the site and service

scheme in Kenya is, according

to Syagga, most "allergic" to

alternative housing

technologies. But the results of

the research work by the

HRDU are now available for

implementation.to lower the

cost of housing programmes

in the country. Whether or not

the NHC will now readily respond favourably to the results

of the research findings and

the government to enact the

necessary legislation for the

implementation of research

recommendations lemains to

be seen.

/9274

CSO! 3400/47

12
KENYA

BRIEFS

GEOTIIERMAL ENERGY EXPLORATION—Geothermal exploration will be intensified as

a cheaper alternative energy source, the Minister for Energy and Regional

Development, Mr Nicolas Biwott, said yesterday. Mr Biwott said that for

many years, Kenya had invested heavily in hydro and thermal energy "which

have proved to be very expensive." The Minister said this when he officially

opened a three-day technical meeting on the Exploration of Geothermal

Energy in Kenya at Unep headquarters at Gigiri, Nairobi. Kenyan, British and

Italian experts are attending the meeting, sponsored by the United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP), They will also visit potential geothermal

sites in the Rift Valley. The participants will evaluate the exploration of

geothermal power potential in Kenya which was started in November 1984 under

a cost sharing agreement between Kenya, UNDP, Italy and with technical assistance from Britain worth $3,374,366. Mr Biwott said the Olkaria Power Station

with a capacity of 45 MW, accounted for 16-1/2 percent, of the total electricity generated in Kenya today. He said Sh 1,6 billion had already been spent

on Olkaria. The Government, Mr Biwott said, decided in 1984 to continue geothermal energy exploration. This led to the signing of an agreement with

Japan for studies on Eburru area and the expansion of Olkaria. He said the

programme was aimed at carrying out detailed geothermal study of SuswaLongonot and Menengai-Bogoria areas to identify feasible sites. Mr Biwott

said the programme would also provide for the training of Kenyans in geothermal exploration and development to strengthen the Government's capacity

to run power plants. [Text] [Nairobi DAILY NATION in English 6 Feb 87

p 11] /9274

TELECOMMUNICATIONS INSTITUTE—A telecommunications institute for Africa is

to be established in Kenya. Chief executives and telecommunications administrators from Eastern and Southern Africa were meeting in Mombasa yesterday to

work out the mechanism for setting up the institute. The Permanent Secretary

in the Ministry of Transport and Communications, Mr Peter Wambura, said the

institute is to be known as the African Advanced Level Telecommunications

Institute. The meeting at a Mombasa hotel is sponsored by the Kenya Posts

and Telecommunications Corporation. Mr Wambura said Kenya had recognised the

need to train telecommunications experts and had started a vigorous training

strategy for personnel at the Mbagathi Central Training School in Nairobi.

He said people from other countries were also trained there on bilateral arrangements . He said the Mbagathi School was set up because Kenya realised

that trained people would be the key to adapting to the continuously changing

technology and the large financial outlay required in telecommunications.

13
The PS thanked international groups involved in the development of telecommunications such as the International Telecommunications Union, the Preferential Trade Area and the united Nations Development Programme. He said their

goodwill was in keeping with 1981 Lagos Plan of Action to develop African and

regional infrastructure. The managing director of Kenya Posts, Mr Kipng'eno

arap Ng'eny, said the sub-regional telecommunication network has grown tremendously, and required trained technicians to operate and maintain the equipment. [Text] [Nairobi DAILY NATION in English 5 Feb 87 p 3] /9274

ITALIAN AID FOR BUSES~-Italy is to make available Shl40 million to help buy

100 Fiat buses for Nairobi's public transport system. The visiting Italian

State and Foreign Affairs Minister, Mr Francesco Forte, announced at a meeting

with Kenya's Finance Minister, Professor George Saitoti, that the first 50

buses would be procured from the Italian commodity fund. The grant will cost

the Italian Government Sh59.2 million. The second lot of buses will be funded

from the Italian counterparts fund and will cost Sh80 million, Mr Forte said.

The meeting was held on Thursday, Italy has also given Kenya a Sh60 million

grant for a fish farming project in Lake Turkana. The Tourism Minister, Mr

Andrew Omanga, disclosed this yesterday when he received Mr Forte. He said

fish production had been falling. The highest yield ever achieved was 17,000

tonnes in 1976. Since then the lake had produced about 10,000 tonnes a year.

Most of the fish was tilapia with the Nile perch yield the second largest.

:'It is with this reason that the Government has considered the possibility of

establishing tilapia farming programmes on the shores of the lake," Mr Omanga

said. The programme will also supply fingerlings. Later the Italian minister, accompanied by Ambassador Luigi Valenza, handed over 1.1 million doses of

polio vaccine to the Kenyatta National Hospital. The consignment was received

by a representative of the Ministry of Health, Dr Dominic Mutie. The vaccine

was donated through Unicef's regional director, Dr Mary Racelis. [Text]

[Nairobi DAILY NATION in English 31 Jan 87 p 3] /9274

KIAMBERA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT—The giant 140-mega-watt Kiambere hydroelectric power project on the River Tana will be ready to supply power early

next year. According to Energo-Project of Yugoslavia senior engineer, Mr

Jack Scovil, the company will complete construction of the dam by June this

year. A few more months will be needed to fill the 17-mile reservoir with

water. Speaking during a weekend visit to Kiambere by Kenya Institute of

Mass Communications lecturers, Mr Scovil said the reservoir would form the

second largest man-made lake in Kenya, Accompanying the KIMC staff was Mr

Nginya Ngaruma, the public relations officer of the Tana and Athi Rivers

Development Authority who said TARDA had tendered for the Sh4 billion Kiambere

project which will solve the country's power-problems. Mr Ngaruma said TARDA,

in conjunction with Government ministries, was working hard to combat heavy

siltation in the Mount Kenya catchment area. He said an estimated 5 million

tons of silt had found its way to the sea. On the development of the lower

Tana, Mr Ngaruma said TARDA was planning to establish a 16,000-hectare rice

project at the Tana delta near the coast. The principal of KIMC, Mr James

Wanjau, praised the Government and TARDA for the development efforts along the

River Tana. [Text] [Nairobi DAILY NATION in English 27 Jan 87 p 10] /9274

CSO: 3400/47

14
ZAMBIA

CUBANS ACCUSED OF ATROCITIES

Monrovia THE MIRROR in English 22 Jan 87 p 2

[Text]

There are new

reports frcm Angola

of atrocities

comnitted against

the citizens of

Angola by Cuban troops . A former

department chief of

a hospital in Huambo has said that

Cuban doctors are

unnecessarily amputating civilians'

limbs in retaliation for

resistance successes in the ongoing

war.

Sergeant Aurelio

Queiros Kaley, the

former chief of the

Huambo Hospital,

has provided detail

of the violations.

He reported that

two Cuban majors

are unnecessarily

amputating the

upper and lower

limbs of Angolan

citizens who were

visiting the hospi-

.tal for normal treatment. The Cubans

frequently amputated in retaliation

for successful attacks agains Cuban

units in Huambo

carried out by the

forces of UNITA. the

National Union, for

the Total Independence of Angola. He

cited specific cases of these bloody

retaliatory actions

There have been a

number of reports

of human rights violations committed

by the 35,000 Cuban

forces stationed in

Angola. 'Ihe Cubans

are frustrated by

the graving battlefield successes of

the UNITA forces.

Miguel Garcia, a

Cuban soldier who

deserted to join

UNITA, has testified

that Cuban troops

were told by their

officers to burn

every house during

a sweep and to shoot any villager who

protested. Garcia

also said that at

least on two occasions .villagers who

were suspected of

supporting the resistance were taken

up in helicopters

and hurled our..

As a result of

these kinds of

atrocities, support

for UNITA is growing among the Angolan public. As on»i

Cuban soldier sai .,

"Thj people here,

they do not want us

They turn their

faces from us and

you feel their hate

Angolans are also

disturbed by what

Jonas Savimbi, the

Chief of UNITA, has

called "Cultural

Genocide." Savimbi

reports that on Fidel Castro's orders

10,000 young Angolans under 10 years

old have been literally kidnapped and

sent to Cuba against their vail for

training. Many of

their parents do not

even know what has

happened to them.

The ruling MPI.A,

the People's Movement

for the Liberation

of Angola, and the

Cubans have tried to

portray the atrocities as being UNI

TA's responsibility

But UNITA representative pointed out

that UNITA, which

is largely made up

of Ovimbubda Tribesmen, has little

reason to attack

civilians, who are

almost all Ovimbunda, in war areas.

Jonas Savimbi has

reported that a

growing number of

Cuban troop^ have

deserted to UNITA*s

ranks. Savimbi said

that the troops were

disappointed when

they found out they

had been lied to

about the reasons

for being in Angola

As Miguel Garcia,

the Cuban deserter,

said: 'In Cuba, we

were told we were

coming to fight

the South African

racists. When we

come here and find

the enemy is not

a White Racist but

a black man."

The reports of

Cuban atrocities in

Angola have come at a

time when growing

evidence has been

accumulating of

similar human right

violations back in

Cuba. People who

spent years in Cuban jails have reported abusive treatment by Castro's

regime of political

prisoners and blacks.

Fidel Castro appear

to be exporting more than a revolution.

/9274

CSO} 3400/209 15
ZAMBIA

BRIEFS

BRAIN DRAIN TO RSA--Lusaka—The University of Zambia is facing a staff crisis

because lecturers are leaving for South Africa and other neighbouring states.

The Deputy Vice-Chancellor of the University of Zambia (Unza), Mr Ben Mweene,

said the situation was serious. The teaching staff were leaving Unza to work

in universities in the South African homelands where salaries are 'Very lucrative." Others were leavint to work in Swaziland, Lesotho and Botswana where

salaries were much higher than those in Unza. Mr Mweene said the problem

arose about 15 months ago when lecturers started leaving. He attributed it to

the deteriorating value of the kwacha, noting that universities in the south

paid much more.-and this allowed their staff superior standards of living.

Mr Mweene said it was difficult to recruit expatriates to fill up crucial

academic positions in Unza because of the high costs involved. [Text]

[Durban THE DAILY NEWS in English 5 Feb 87 p 9] /9274

FOREIGN RESERVES GROW—Gaborone—Botswana's foreign reserves are now standing

at about R2,4billion, it was announced here. This was sufficient to cover 24

months' imports at current levels and at the prevailing rate of exchange,

said a bank spokesman in Gaborone. He said the increase in reserves was

mainly due to the improved diamond sales of the Central Selling Organisation.

[Text] [Johannesburg THE STAR in English 2 Feb 87 p 3] /9274

CSO: 3400/209

16
SOUTH AFRICA

MORGENZON TO BE HEART OF ORANJEWERKERS* WHITE HOMELAND

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 13 Feb 87 p 62

[Text]

Morgenzon, a small dusty village in the eastern Transvaal, is the embryo of the white

homeland which a group of conservative extremists, the Oranjewerkers, want to build.

The village with its gravel roads and a few

dilapidated shops lies within the BethalErmelo-Standerton triangle.

Appropriately enough, one of the moving

forces behind the Oranjewerkers is Hendrik

Verwoerd, son of the late architect of grand

apartheid.

The Oranjewerkers do not represent or

belong to any political party, but have strong

links with the Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB). They await unification of

all conservatives in the country. This they

hope will happen before the coming election,

for only then can they successfully fight what

they see as the threat of a black government

resulting from government policy.

The Oranjewerkers' movement was

launched in Pretoria in June 1980, and its

headquarters moved to Morgenzon two years

later. A strange choice, it might seem, but

the group's secretary and accountant, Ben

van den Berg, says that all options had been

thoroughly considered.

He says Morgenzon will be the heart of

future industrial development. Historically,

it belongs to the Afrikaner and resistance

against the Oranjewerkers there is relatively

weak. Morgenzon centres on a farm whose

owner specified in a deed of transfer years

ago that no black, coloured or Indian might

hire or own property on it, something not far

removed from the principle of the Group

Areas Act.

"We are working towards an Afrikaner

nation - - not a white nation; that would be

racism," says Van den Berg, echoing AWB

leader Eugene Terre' Blanche's sentiments.

The Oranjewerkers believe they are fulfilling a religious calling. They believe South

Africans have erred for 300 years in relying

on black labour and not separating nations

"as God ordered us to do."

Van den Berg insists his movement is not

racist, "but we must not hope that the Afrikaner minority will survive in a black majority. The whites do not know the blacks. We

do not hate them; we are not against them —

we are for ourselves."

Before joining the Oranjewerkers, Van

den Berg was a hospital secretary in Lebowa.

That experience convinced him to work for

the creation of a white homeland. "The

blacks have a country of their own — a plaqe

where they can call the tune. Afrikaners

want the same privilege, but we have to work

for it,'' he explains.

»The Afrikaner nation can be preserved

only by being completely self-sufficient, he

says. Whites must stop employing blacks,

who will then be forced to move away in

search of jobs.

But hardly any of Morgenzon's residents

seem to support the Oranjewerkers' ideals.

Francis Naudc, whose husband owns the

only hotel in Morgenzon, says they are impractical and inhuman.

"We do not have enough work at Morgenzon to start a Bocrestaat," she says. "The

employees of the Oranjewerkers are often

second- or third-grade Afrikaners. Whites

have been spoilt by cheap labour and would

rather be jobless than earn black wages."

But Van den Berg says: "Whites will have

to do their own dirty work to preserve their

identity. When we started to employ blacks,

we had to start sharing our property with

them. Now they want us to share our country. Black labour is not cheap labour — we

will pay with our country."

While Naude is outspoken, others keep

mum, evidently for fear of harming their

businesses. One angry shopowner says the

17
Oranjewerkers shop in neighbouring towns

rather than deal with people who openly

question their ideals. "They want us to support them, but they won't support us."

Another woman says the principle of ousting people from their homes is inhuman. But

she does not believe that the Oranjewerkers

pose a threat to the community: "They are

ridiculous and we can only laugh at them."

Van den Berg blames the press for splitting the Morgenzon community. He says

everyone unconsciously supports the

Oranjewerkers, but people have been indoctrinated by the media. He compares the

Oranjewerkers to Escom and Anglo American Corporation. He cannot therefore understand why people support those organisations

but oppose the Oranjewerkers' development

scheme so strongly.

Jorrie Jordaan, another ardent

Oranjewerker, owns a whites-only fibreglass

factory. He says his staff of four whites has

proved that whites can get along without

black labour. But he has trouble selling his

main product — super tubes.

"Our State President has buggered up the

economy and people cannot afford luxuries

any more ... I hate all racists and kaffirs."

Jordaan, says Van den Berg, has such a good

sense of humour.

The Oranjewerkers are adamant about

staying and surviving in Morgenzon. They're

attempting to ensure this by buying up property and "importing" supporters. The group

claims to have about 2 500 members, but

Van den Berg believes that support stretches

far beyond that. They own property worth

some R100 000 and "the municipality will

not be able to ignore so many taxpayers."

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18
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

JUDGES' SALARY GOES UP—The salary of an ordinary judge would go up from

$81.000 to $101,500, under a Bill published in Parliament yesterday. The

Judges' Remuneration Amendment Bill said the salary of a Judge President

would go up from R86.500 to $107,000; that of an Judge of Appeal from

$88,000 to $108,500; and that of the Chief Justice of SA from R98.000 to

$122,000. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 20 Feb 87 p 5]

/9274

GOVERNMENT ASKS FOR ADDITIONAL BILLIONS—Government is asking for an additional R2.8bn to cover the amount by which it exceeded last year's R36.1 bn

Budget, The Additional Appropriation Bill, to be debated in Parliament on

Friday, deals with extra amounts needed to cover spending by government and

the provinces in the current financial year. AH State departments, excluding Sats and the Post Office are asking for R1.94 bn on top of the $32.56

bn originally estimated. The four provinces are asking for R853.8m more than

the R3.56bn originally estimated. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in

English 18 Feb 87 p 1] /9274

CSO: 3400/224

19
SOUTH AFRICA

COMMENTARY WARNS PIK BOTHA OVER HOMELANDS POLICY

Johannesburg CITY PRESS in English 22 Feb 87 p 2

[Commentary]

[Text] IF South Africa is a true Western democracy as

most white politicians want us to believe,

Foreign Minister Pik Botha would have been

out of his job this week.

He would have lost his job for indecisiveness.

Put mildly: for not acting firmly on the CiskeiTranskei tragedy which reached a bizarre crescendo.

Add to all this the Botswana-Bophuthatswana charade. To our dismay, Botha has also

distanced himself from this political hot potato.

Though we carry no flag for homelands, we

are also painfully aware that they cannot be

wished away. Nor can we pretend that they do

not exist. That would be too simplistic.

There is this unbreakable umbilical cord

beween us and our brethren in the homelands,

born out of the whiteman's blind ideological

obsessions.

That is why we are filled with anger and

outrage when Botha refuses to act. Like it or

not, the homelands are Pretoria's making. Anything that happens there, SA must be held

responsible for. Morally and otherwise.

We are also baffled as to why the wellknown strongman and tough-talking image of

Botha's when dealing with foreign governments was missing this week.

He must be careful. What is happening in

Bisho and Mabatho can easily spill over to our

comfortable South Africa. History has proved

that these things have a ripple effect.

Or has Botha been deluded that this week's

homeland events involved black states which,

in essence, are not a threat to white South

Africa?

/9274

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20
SOUTH AFRICA

'A»-TEAM' VIGILANTE LEADER DECLARES TRUCE WITH COMRADES

Johannesburg CITY PRESS in English 15 Feb 87 p 1

[Article by S'bu Mngadi]

[Text]

IN a dramatic turn-about, "The

Boss" - leader of the notorious

"A-Team" vigilantes - has

called for peace with the "comrades" in Durban townships.

"The Boss" this week conceded that

the bloody fights between the warring

factions were a "futile exercise".

In an exclusive interview with City

Press, the 27-year-old leader of the "ATeam" said he wished to remain unidentified at this stage.

He said his decision to declare a truce

with the "comrades" came after a recent

Cify Press report highlighting the "genuine concern" of the community for tnt

war to come to an end.

"The report really moved us," said

"The Boss".

However, he was quick to warn: "This

must not be construed as throwing in the

towel. If the 'comrades' and their leaders

wish to continue the fight, let it be. We

have the means to fight a full-scale war

until the end."

lie said he has called for a truce

because he deemed it in the best interests

of the community and also because "my

organisation subscribes to the noble ideal

of a liberated South Africa which we

have been blamed for suppressing".

Community leaders were expected to

meet this weekend to consider the vigilantes' peace initiative.

During the interview, "The Boss", a

qualified teacher, vehemently attacked

the Press for failing to present an objective picture of the "war".

1 Ie revealed that the history of the "Ateam" dated back to 1983, when it was

formed as a secret protection squad following the gruesome murder of his father,

a Lamontville high school teacher

The group went public in September

1985 - but, said "The Boss", they regarded their name as a meaningless label,

given to them by the community.

"The Boss" said that an attack on the

Mpanza family, which claimed the life of

a colleague, Langa Zondi, in September

1985, was a turning point. "Bloody vio--

lencc soon erupted as vigilantes defended

themselves."

When reminded that, in fact, it was the

"A-Tcam" who first attacked pupils and

community leaders before the Mpanza

incident, he leapt from his chair and

barked: "You outsiders are the main instigators of all the trouble

in our area."

He maintained that the

vigilantes never attacked,

but only defended their

members.

However, he agreed that

many people in the "ATcani" were employed by

the State - but denied that

they were police informers.

"They arc just ordinary

people. The State employs

«iüii; at least one will have

a Stale link."

The group had no declared leader - except for

"The Boss", who acted as

spokesman. Allegations

that they worked in cahoots with the security

forces were unfounded, he

said.

"Eight of our members

have been arrested for possessing unlicenced firearms, but they were not

charged after appearing in

court three times," he said.

Meanwhile, the PFP's

director in Natal, Roy

Ainslie, described the initiative as a giant step towards the establishment of

peace in the area.

/9274

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21
TRANSKEI ENERGY DEPARTMENT IN ECONOMIC CRISIS

Johannesburg CITY PRESS in English 22 Feb 87 p 3

[Article by Stan Mzimba]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text] TRANSKEI'S Department or Works and P.nergy cannot

pet credit facilities from either local or South African

concerns because the government does not pay its Recounts, a commission of inquiry into the operations of tjic

department, chaired by Advocate Gerald Alexander, was

told in Umtatn this week.

The department is in a.crisis as the maintenance#of

equipment at hospitals, schools and government buildirfgs

is said to have come to a halt.

A witness told the commission that the Transkci government owed R64 000 to a company for the period MayJunc last year.

City Press later learnt that a business owned by one of

the commissioners was owed thousands of rands by the

department.

The commission also heard that no laundry equipment

in any of the territory's hospitals was functioning. Tjic

Umtiita General Hospital and Hutlerworth Hospital send

their laundry to Hast London.

"In the hospital near Ts'olo laundry is done by har{d,

while at another hospital, huge oil drums arc used to boil

the washing," the witness said.

The commission was further told that the next majpr

problem was the malfunctioning of air conditioners cv<wi

in the mortuaries.

On hearing this advocate Alexander indicated that lie

would order a crisis report from all hospitals arouhd

Transkci as soon as possible.

Another witness said: "The whole system will soon

breakdown.-It has now readied crisis proportions. There

is no maintenance in the whole of Transkci - it is nonexistent," he said.

Another witness saidoul of 11 laundry machines at the

750-bed Umtata hospital only two were in working ordqr.

/9274

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22
SOUTH AFRICA

COLGATE TO AID EMERGING BLACK BUSINESSES

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 18 Feb 87 p 3

[Article by Mick Collins]

[Text] COLGATE-Palmolive

has formed a Rim trust

to help emerging black

enterprise.

MD Gerry Knocker

said yesterday all the expertise of Colgate-Palmolive would be made

available to assist the

black entrepreneur.

"It is vital that we look

towards a more equitable

re-distribution of wealth

in this country."

Nocker said that by

transferring technology

and opportunity to the

black business community, his company could

play a major role in the

development of SA.

"We have made Rlm<

available to the trust in

order that entrepreneurs

may have easier access

to finance without encountering any of the red

tape that lending institutions normally require of

prospective borrowers."

The trust will support

manufacturing and service sector industries on

the East Rand and provide access to resources

such as premises, equipment and raw materials.

"Our intent in concentrating on these sectors is

an attempt to give impetus to the creation of jobs

which we believe is essential for the economic

well-being of our country."

Colgate has seconded

its former director of human resources Deryk

Magid to the trust as

executive director.

/9274

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23
MZIMHLOPHE HOSTEL SQUATTERS TERRORIZED BY VIGILANTES

Johannesburg CITY PRESS in English 22 Feb 87 p 4

[Article by Sandile Memela]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

MZIMHLOPHE hostel squatters this week alleged that

they were caught in a spiral of terror and fear as vigilantes

harassed and raided their homes in an attempt to swell the

organisation's ranks.

A group of families told City Press at a clandestine

meeting that the squatter community was gripped by

terror and fear because of vigilante attempts to gain

control of the area.

They said the struggle for control of the area by

vigilantes has made life unbearable. A number of

families arc reported to

have quit the squatter

camp in an attempt to escape the wave of terror and

harassment that has

gripped the area.

fhey claimed the vigilarites were lnkatha members or supporters.

.However, the Chief

Minister of KwaZulu and

president of lnkatha, Mangosuthu Buthclczi, this

week demanded proof that

ithc vigilantes were lnkatha

i supporters.

. "I have, on numerous occasions, called for peace in

the area. I have also visited

Mzimhlophe in an attempt

to diffuse the situation and

have instructed colleagues

to personally investigate

the issue and speak to residents," he said.

Buthclczi refuted allegations that lnkatha members were vigilantes. "lnkatha is committed to nonviolence," he said.

"I condemn acts of wanton brutality by individuals

or groups and I know nothing of allegations regarding

lnkatha members in the

"Can you provide me

with irrefutable evidence

and not merely hearsay?"

he said. .

Buthclczi added that political violence in the townships only escalated after

the formation of the UDF

three years ago.

"Who had heard of the

barbaric 'necklace' until

then," he asked.

The squatter camp consists of a dingy row of

closely packed matchbox

houses between Meadowlands, Zone I, and Mzimhlophe Hostel. It is populated by families who lost

their homes in the 1979

Kliptown floods.

The area is a buffer zone

between Mzimhlophe Hostel and Meadowlands- two

areas that have been the

scenes of violent conflict

between hostel inmates

and township comrades.

The area is daubed in

pro-lnkatha graffiti and

the organisation's colours

are sprayed on walls and

wooden fences.

Residents claimed this

week that there was a tugof-war being waged between vigilantes and comrades to gain the community's support.

"Wc are in a terrible

predicament as both vigilantes and comrades demand that we join their

side," said a resident, who

asked not to be identified

for fear of reprisals.

The urban representative of KwaZulu, and lnkatha regional member,

Zora Khumalo this week

dismissed the allegations

as unfounded.

/9274

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24
SOUTH AFRICA

BOPIIUTHATSWANA DEFENSE FORCE EXPANDING

Pretoria ARMED FORCES in English Feb 87 p 11

TText] L

. .. The Bophuthatswana Defence Force

has just issued a full colour publication

listing some of the developments that

have taken place recently within the

force.

The School Cadet programme is expanding and judging by the photographs

the boys are issued with boots, bush

hats, webb belts and an overall which

fits.

The Special Forces Unit is now operational with a number of the members

having completed their parachute training and are now able to act in the role of

a quick airborne reaction force. This year

the next batch of men will commence

their parachute training to increase the

size of the Reaction Force.

The Air Wing has been expanded with

the addition of CASA transport aircraft

and the first four Bophuthatswana pilots

have been selected for training in South

Africa.

In addition another element has been

created that falls under the command of

the Chief of the BDF and this is the

Bophuthatswana National Security Unit.

At present the BNSU has a strength of

over 600 and is deployed in the six

Military Regions falling under the direct

control of a BNSU Sub-Unit Headquarters which has been established in

each of the Military Regions. The BNSU

is tasked with the protection and security of essential installations in Bophuthatswana.

The BDF has its Headquarters and

support elements at the Molopo Military

Base and three other bases are at present maintained in other centres.

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/9274

CSO? 3400/219

26
SOUTH AFRICA

i" BRIEFS

NORTHEAST VENDA RAVAGED BY DROUGHT—Pafuri—While many parts of the Transvaal

have recorded record rainfall figures, several parts in the far northern area

are still in the grip of a devastating drought. One of the worst hit regions

is the north eastern corner of Venda, near the Pafuri entrance to the Kruger

National Part. In this ravaged district, temperatures soar to over 40 Deg C

and the smell of death is in the air. Cattle, donkeys and goats have died at

regular intervals, and church and welfare agencies are fighting a losing battle

against starvation in several remote villages. But children still gamely walk

many kilometres to attend school, returning home in the heat of the day. "The

rain will come, and then we will be able to plant again,"' said Mr William

Mayenga, who works at a foot-and-*nouth disease checkpoint at Modimbo. Bu£ many

others have lost hope and tried to find employment in the lush south, where ,

fruit is in abundant supply. White farmers living in the corridor between,.

Venda and the Limpopo River allege that some of the cattle rustling occurring

there is launched from Venda, due to the hunger crisis. For this reason,

several ranchers have been lenient in pressing charges. But the farmers claim

most of the culprits come from Zimbabwe and that Mozambican refugees are also

responsible for many of the thefts. Despite heavy downpours inside the Kruger

Park, there has been little relief in the Venda villages. It is clear some

kind of decisive government action will have to be taken to a;id these remote

communities. Agriculturists say the soil will take years to recover from the

ravages of the present drought. [Text] [By Dirk Nel] [Johannesburg THE STAR

in English 19 Feb 37 p 9] /9274

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27
RADICAL OPPOSITION GROUPS REVISING STRATEGIES

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES in English 22 Feb 87 p 2

[Article by David Jackson]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

SOME radical opposition

groups in South Africa are

reviewing their political

strategies after the emergence of the new reform

"alliance".

The move — still hesitant and

unco-ordinated — marks a dramatic shift away from the protest and

boycott politics of recent years.

In one remarkable development the

UDF's "white" affiliate, Jodac (Johannesburg Democratic Action Committee), is considering putting up candidates in white general elections —

though not necessarily this one.

And in another dramatic move Mrs

Sheena Duncan, Black Sash chairman, has

written to members saying she believes

white politics is more fluid than at any

time in three decades, and that opposition

groups should review their strategies to

see what support they they can lend to

getting rid of the National Party Government.

Different

A series of tenuous alliances is enticingly in prospect after behind-the-scenes

talks between Afrikaner academics and

businessmen, individual members of nonpolitical groups such as the Black Sash,

and the UDF and some of its affiliates.

These "New Radicals" — set to introduce a different ingredient to white politics — are seeking to define a "strategy for

power" by working within the present parliamentary system.

One plan now being considered in extraparliamentary quarters is that Independent candidates should not oppose PFP or

verligte candidates but fight the Conservative/HNP seats.

This weekend a workshop of extra-parliamentary groups is taking place in a bid

to give teeth to the strategy.

It is aimed at influencing white voter

attitudes through an undeclared antiapartheid front, which would include existing anti-Government forces such as the

PFP, the NRP-Indaba platform and verligte Nat MPs.

The plan is long-term and not aimed

specifically at the coming May elections.

But the "new dealers" hope the bandwagon effect could force a situation where

the ruling National Party is defeated in a

no-confidence vote by all three chambers

in Parliament — or through a failure to

get its Budget vote through.

Convention

With the "left" holding a parliamentary

majority, the strategists argue, the next

phase would be the calling of a constitutional conference — loosely

along the lines of the sincediscredited "national convention' idea.

The protagonists caution

that the movement is only a

"a very loose groundswell

of opinion" and that there

is intense debate and division among the various protest-group factions. There

is no suggestion at this

stage of seeking any formal

alliances with reformist

groups.

But a tangible indication

of the new thinking comes

in a watershed document

issued by Mrs Duncan, of

the Transvaal Regional

Black Sash, a movement

thr* has always tak?n pains

to stay outside the partypolitical arena.

Fluid

The paper sets out

thoughts "designed to provoke debate and to help

those of us who work in the

white constituency to see

whether or not these (1987)

elections can possibly be

used to take South Africa a

step forward towards justice and democracy".

Mrs Duncan — a past

national president of the

Black Sash — says that

extra-parliamentary opposition in the white community can "exert a great deal

of influence and may just

possibly turn the situation

around because of the effect it can have on the comPosition of doings inside

arliament".

/9274

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28
SOUTH AFRICA

SADF SUICIDE RATE CALLED 'HORRIFYING'

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 22 Feb 87 p 4

[Article by John MacLennan]

[Text]

THREE times as many servicemen attempted suicide in

the South African Defence

Force than had died in military operations and training

exercises last year.

This week the Progressive Federal Party's defence spokesman,

Mr Brian Goodall, labelled this

state of affairs shocking and

called for a thorough probe.

He said the "horrifying" statistics

released in Parliament this week had

been caused by the SADF's inability

to deal with recruits who had difficulty in integrating.

A total of 362 national servicemen

tried to kill themselves last year, according to figures released in Parliament by Minister of Defence General

Magnus Malan. According to information previously released in Parliament, 115 died in operations and exercises during the same period.

In addition to suicide attempts by

national servicemen, General Malan

said, 11 Citizen Force and 56 Permanent Force members had also attempted suicide. A total of 24 SADF

personnel committed suicide last

year: 18 national servicemen, four

Permanent Force and two Citizen

Force.

Mr Goodall, who was moved to ask

for the statistics because of the experience of parents whose son had

committed suicide during national

service, said he believed the rate

could be cut if servicemen could talk

out their problems with sympathetic

people in the SADF.

Another factor, he believed, was

that many servicemen were involved

in inner turmoil because they did not

support the Government and felt

they had become part of the Government system.

Mr Goodall's view is that the

SADF is doing the best it can, but

that it is just not good enough and the

figures prove it. It could, as a small

start, begin liaising with organisations such as Lifeline.

The SADF's Directorate for Public

Relations said in a statement that the

Defence Force was a microcosm of

South African society.

The figures represented only the

smallest fraction of one percent of

the Defence Force's daily strength

and "in all probability a negligible

fraction if compared with the figures

for South Africa as a whole".

"The Defence Force is concerned

about the suicide and attempted suicide figures and for this reason

everything humanly possible is done

to combat the problem. It is generally accepted that the highest incidence

of suicide attempts occurs in the age

group of 17 to 19.

"All suicides and attempted suicides have to be reported to the

SADF Medical Service without delay

so that they can evaluate and analyse

them to determine trends. The Medical Service adopts a multi-disciplined

approach to the problem.

A team made up of doctors, psychologists, psychiatrists, social workers

and chaplains are involved in the treatment

of a patient.

29
/9274

CSOt 3400/215

"In addition, the leader

element of the Defence

Force has been taught to

recognise the symptoms

of stress and to refer soldiers who appear to exhibit these symptoms to the

multi-discipline team.

Therefore there is at all

timesa full range of

medical expertise available to any member of

the Defence Force who

may need help." A spokesman said the

SADF was not aware

that there had been any

sharp increase in suicides. The figure for 1985

was 16 suicides, as compared to 18 last year.

Pr Abe Gangat, consultant psychiatrist and lecturer in the division of

psychiatry of the Department of Health, said the

suicide figures for national servicemen were

alarming.

Dr Gangat, an expert

on suicide, said that while

successful suicides were

highest among older people, attempted or parasuicides were highest

among younger people.

Whites in this country

had one of the the highest

suicide rates in the world.

Latest statistics (from

1983) showed that 20

white South Africans per

100 000 of population

committed suicide as

against 12,5 percent in

the United States and 8,2

percent in Britain. Whites

also hada far higher suicide rate than other population groups.

In 1983, seven per

100 000 coloureds attempted suicide and 6,5

per 100 000 Asians. Figures for black population

were not available.

30
SOUTH AFRICA

GOVERNMENT TO RESTRICT STUDENT NUMBERS IN UNIVERSITIES

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES in English 18 Feb 87 p 1

[Text]

A GENERAL restriction would be imposed on student numbers at universities, Education and Culture Minister in

the House of Assembly Piet Clase announced yesterday.

University principals and the official

Opposition expressed concern last night

at the move.

Clase said an investigation showed it

would not be possible for State expenditure to keep pace if universities were

allowed to continue growing at the present rate unless other equally important

sectors were adversely affected.

He had no intention of encroaching on

universities' autonomy on admissions,

Clase said, but "the State will link its

subsidy to universities to a restriction on

the number of full-time equivalent students that are deemed to be in the interest of the country and within the means

of the Treasury".

Clase said the failure and drop-out

rate at universities indicated admission

requirements could be applied more

strictly to effect a more economical disbursement of State and other funds.

"It is further evident that the proportion of students admitted to technikons

and universities respectively will have to

be adjusted. In order to provide the necessary technological manpower required for the development of the country, it is imperative that a larger number

of students be admitted by technikons

without impairing the universities."

A spokesman for Clase said last night

the extent of the restriction had not yet

been decided.

University of Cape Town vice chancellor Dr Stuart Saunders said that, while ne

recognised the economic problems facing SA, he had reservations about whether imposing "an arbitrary limit on undergraduate numbers is the correct way

of handling a complex problem .

University of Natal principal Prof Peter Booysen said it would not be in tne

national interest to expand technikons at

the expense of university training.

Booysen said the university had a

philosophical difference with the Minister's statement in that he was referring

to the 11 so-called "white" universities.

in South Africa.

"The University of Natal does not perceive itself to be a white university - it

is serving all population groups. If you

look at the needs of all the groups, then

you do not come to the conclusion that

there is over-production," he said.

PFP education spokesman Roger Burrows said the Minister's decision had

been reached against the background of

racially segmented education.

"There is a considerable danger that

unless this is realised one would accept

the facile argument of the Minister that

the existing universities reflect the needs

of the whole SA population and that students need to be diverted to technikons,

he said.

"There is also a grave danger that race

could once again be a criterion for admission to universities."

/927A

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31
SOUTH AFRICA

UNREST AFFECTS 260 SCHOOLS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 24 Feb 87 p 5

I

Tex 1

1 PARLIAMENT - At any given

time last year unrest disrupted

an average of 260 schools out of

more than 7 300, the Department of Education and Training (DET)

said in its report yesterday.

It said the areas most seriously affected were Johannesburg and the Eastern

Cape.

In most cases classes were resumed

"after discussions had been held with the

communities concerned aimed at gaining their co-operation".

The report says critics often apply

unrealistic criteria when comparing

black education, which is still in "an

early growth phase", with "well-established education departments for other

population groups".

An assessment of per capita expenditure on education for blacks should take

into consideration the dissimilarity in

historical background between education for blacks and for other population

groups, and the dissimilar growth rate,

enrolment position, and age composition

of teachers and pupils.

The report said for "various good reasons" the per capita expenditure could

not be the same at this stage.

The different education departments

did not necessarily use the same criteria

to calculate the per capita figure. About

80% of an education department's budget was allocated to salaries, and 78% of

black teachers had lesser qualifications

than their counterparts in other departments.

Per capita spending was not a predetermined formula that was part of a

"vicious conspiracy wantonly and deliberately to impede the black man's progress". It was the result of a combination of planning, progress and

achievement in any given year.

The 10-year programme aimed at

parity in "education provision" with other education departments was "in the

process of development". — Sapa.

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INCREASING STRIKE ACTIVITY SEEN TO HAVE SMALL IMPACT

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 22 Feb 87 p 6

[Article by Malcolm Fothergill]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

HOW serious is South

Africa's burgeoning

number of strikes?

Less serious than

might be thought from a

casual glance at the figures, suggests Dr Kobus

van Zyl, director of the

National Manpower

Commission.

While the average

number of strikes has

risen sharply since 1970,

the picture painted by

the average number of

man-days lost as a result of strikes is far less

gloomy, he says.

Figures he quotes in

an article in "Productivity SA" do not include

1986's totals, which were

well up on 1985's in

every respect.

But they show clearly

that although strikes

have become far more

frequent in South Africa

since 1970 they still

have a long way to go

before they reach the

severity of the 1922

miners' strike.

On an international

scale, too, South Africa's

strikes are still fairly

small beer.

"Even taking into account the comparatively

sharp increase in industrial action in the RSA

over the past few years,

strike activity is still relatively low compared

with that in other (developed) countries," says

Dr Van Zyl.

"This holds for both

the frequency and severity rates."

However, he sounds

two warning notes:

• ONE is the question of

how much strike activi

ty a developing country

such as South Africa

can afford.

• TWO is the fact that

while there is a general

tendency in most other

countries for strike activity to decline,- the

trend in South Africa is

in the opposite direction.

If this trend continues, South Africa

might soon be in the

league of countries with

a medium propensity to

strike — that is, with an

average of between 100

and 500 man-days lost

a year for every 1000

workers.

The average in South

Africa from 1980 to 1985

of 60,2 man-days lost

per 1000 workers was

well below that of many

developed nations.

Australia's figure, for

instance, was 536,4;

France's was 136,4; Ireland's was 488,5; Italy's

was 918,9; Britain's was

435,5; and the USA's was

228,8.

Among nations with

the lowest average

number of man-days

lost were the 'Netherlands (10,3) and West

Germany (26,4).

The number of employees involved in

strikes per 100 000 of the

economically active

population is also lower

in South Africa than in

many other nations.

From 1974 to 1983,

the figure for South

Africa was 1089,5. This

shot up to 2146,5 in the

period from 1980 to 1985

and must have risen

even further last year.

Yet it still has a long

way to go to match

Italy (56121,6), Australia

(20930,1) or Britain

(6615,4).

As for the timing of

33

strikes, Dr Van Zyl says

the number of strikes,

the number of workers

involved and the loss in

man-days might differ

from month to month,

but all three norms follow a seasonal pattern.

"There are definite

distribution trends in

that strikes tend to

occur more in the

June/July period and

notably less in the November/December/January period."

This finding echoes

the experience of other

countries.

In Britain, for instance, it has been found

that most major labour

stoppages begin in

spring and autumn. The

months with least strike

activity there are December and July.

Looking to the future, Dr Van Zyl says

the granting of full

trade union rights to

black workers and the

removal of influx control might tend to increase future strike activity, but other factors

including the high unemployment rate and

the financial weakness

of unions will tend to inhibit it
AVERAGE NUMBER OF STRIKES PER YEAR PER

100 000 OF THE EAP (FIVE-YEAR INTERVALS),

SOUTH AFRICA, 1910-1984

3 -

2-

T*-Mf

tJr^W

:•:•:•

LÜ

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984

SOURCES:

1. Central Statistical Services

2. Department of Manpower

_ 120-

80.

40-

20

AVERAGE LOSS OF MAN-DAYS AS A RESULT

OF STRIKES PER YEAR PER 1 000 OF THE EAP

(FIVE-YEAR INTERVALS), SOUTH AFRICA, 1910-

1984

•nm rrj-'rl I i 11 - T

1 "?'

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974

SOURCES:

1. Centrat Statistical Services

2. Department of Manpower

1975 1980

1979 1984

34
THE SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF STRIKES, RSA

1980-1984

2001

V 150'

E 100-

SOURCE:

Department of Manpower

Number of "r*"ESSES Worko"

inv°ived IHMlo

"

in man'da''!

I t

/9274

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35
SOUTH AFRICA

RECENT WHITE-ON-BLACK VIOLENCE IN PRETORIA DEPLORED

Johannesburg SUNDAY STAR in English 22 Feb 87 p 6

[Article by Sejamothopo Motau]

[Text]

PRETORIA has long had the dubious reputation of

Deing among the most conservative and racist cities in

the country but recent shocking events are fast making it the racist capital of South Africa.

Blacks in Pretoria do walk on the same sidewalks

as whites — and they have done so for many years.

They stand in the same post office lines. There are

even restaurants and cinemas where black and white

people can enjoy a meal or movie side by side.

But the racism that has given the administrative

capital of South Africa its bad name, persists. On occasion, the monster rears its ugly head in violent ways.

Last weekend, several black people were hurt, at

least five seriously, when

they were attacked by white

young men armed with

pangas, wheel spanners,

crowbars, knobkieries, and

in one case a golf club, in

and around Waterkloof.

Police have arrested four

' white men in connection

with the attacks and they

are expected to appear in

court tomorrow.

So far, only four of the

victims have laid charges.

One victim, Miss Dorah

Moloko (28), said she was

struck on the head with an

iron bar by one of two white

men who accosted her and

her boyfriend in Drakensberg Street.

Miss Moloko now lives in

fear of more attacks. So do

some of the white people

who have reported attacks

on their employees.

Two months ago, a middle-aged domestic worker,

Mrs Maria Rametsi, died

after being run down by a

car while in a park in Monument Park. According to

sources, a young white man

became angry at the presence of black people in the

park and drove his car at

black children there. The

children ran away and the!

vehicle hit Mrs Rametsi.

Police have linked three White men to her death.

The case has yet to come before the courts.

The white-on-black violence in Waterkloof has

drawn heavy fire from Mr Rowan Haaroff, PFP regional chairman and a candidate in Pretoria's Sunnyside constituency in the coming white general election.

He said such behaviour bedevilled race relations. "I

believe this to be the work of Right-wing radicals who

want white-by-night and also by day suburbs.

"These are the sort of people who would rightly

decry ANC bombs that injure innocents, but themselves injure and sometimes kill innocent people."

He said there was an inescapable feeling among

black people that the police did not act as promptly or

as effectively when they complained.

"The case of the woman run over and killed in Monument Park is a case in question," Mr Haaroff said.

"Blacks would contrast this with the Niemann case in

which the two alleged murderers were shot dead by

police within hours."

The problem with this perception, he said, was that

it was also shared by white radicals who believed they

could get away with their crimes against black people.

Unisa psychologist Professor G Rademeyer believes

the type of racist agression displayed at the weekend

may be the result of feelings of insecurity and "directionlessness" among the young people involved.

Given the present political situation, he said, some

whites may feel insecure about their future and vent

their feelings in aggressive behaviour. They may derive a sense of power from their violent actions.

36
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An explanation for racist aggressiveness may also

be found in a view espoused by an Afrikaner pastor,

the Rev Eddie Bruwer of the NG Kerk in Afrika.

Mr Bruwer believes the apartheid ideology that

has served as glue for the Afrikaner middle class has

been destroyed. This has evoked a strong sense of insecurity among Afrikaners, as shown by the scampering for new alignments in the political arena.

This sense of insecurity could manifest itself in

aggressive behaviour since there is a power struggle

between the powerful white middle class and the hapless black "underdogs". The white middle class feels

threatened by the black "have-nots".

Pretoria abounds with other examples of the racism

that has led to the closure of several cinemas. Such

acts may be described as psychological violence.

The barring of an Indian national serviceman, Seaman Nicholas Narayansamy, from boarding a municipal bus in Pretoria with two white colleagues is a

classic example.

The case of the HoBrskool Menlopark is another.

There was also the case of the two students from

Christian Brothers College who were refused permission to play squash at the same school.

The incidence of racist incidents in the city seems to

increase by the day.

Now there are reports by black train commuters

that a group of whites have declared some streets in

Sunnyside for "whites only".

37
SOUTH AFRICA

U.S. SANCTIONS PULLING CARGO VOLUMES TO RECORD LOW

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 18 Feb 87 p 3

[Article by Hamish Mclndoe]

[Text]

SHIPPING lines plying the

US trade routes from SA are

in for a dismal year as sanctions pull cargo volumes

down to record lows.

Nedlloyd, which operates a

service via SA to US west coast

ports, has seen its cargo volume

shrink by 75% since last year's

embargoes.

And shipping expert Bob Robertson estimates US trade has

fallen by an average 40% after a

similar decline two years ago

from "unofficial sanctions" and

adverse exchange rates.

Says Nedlloyd regional manager Joop Wedepohl: "Our

bread-and-butter cargo to the

US ofsteel, iron and foodstuffs —

all on the embargo list — has

simply disappeared."

Nedlloyd has changed its sailing schedule to help counter the

loss. "We are now stopping at

new destinations, but it would be

nonsensical to let the competition know where they are.'

Safmarine is minimising its

cargo losses by generating new

trade on goods not embargoed

by the US and by filling the gap

left by the collapsed US Lines.

Says Safmarine senior GM

Tony Farr: "It's a matter of

maintaining sailing frequencies

and trying to ship more goods

that are not embargoed."

It is an open question whether

the Far East has made up for

lost US trade. Says Ahrenkiel operations director John Lamert:

"The level of trade to Far East

ports has increased, but this may

Be the result of clearing the

backlog of goods waiting to be

shipped from the Christmas

break."

Precise details of just how far

SA's exports to the US have

slumped may never be known.

Trade and shipping figures from

government departments, the

lines and trade organisations

have virtually dried up.

A spokesman for the SA

Foreign Trade Organisation

says: 'There is nearly always a

backlash on some company

when trade information on sensitive markets, such as the US, is

disclosed to the Press."

D SAPA reports Iscor has no intention of closing down its Sishen-Saldanha project because

of sharply reduced export volumes. A spokesman said the venture was still profitable.

Iron ore exports have fallen

from the 18-million tons a year

projected when the scheme was

launched to 9-million tons.

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38
SOUTH AFRICA

COUNTRY'S ECONOMY COMPARED TO TAIWAN'S

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR (Finance) in English 22 Feb 87 p 7

[Article by Malcolm Fothergill]

[Text]

COMPARING the economic performances of

South Africa and Taiwan is an unpleasantly

humbling exercise for

a South African.

Although the Gross National Product of both

countries is similar, as is

the large public-sector in

volvcment in industry,

Taiwan's 2-percent rate

of inflation and 7,5-percent rate of growth in recent years make South

Africa's lopsided, inflation-ridden economy look

sick.

Yet no less a personage than Mr C C Kan, economic counsellor to the

Republic of China's Embassy in South Africa,

predicts confidently that

within the next few years

South Africa will outstrip

Taiwan in every economic sphere.

"The difficulty facing

South Africa is only temporary," he says in an article in "Stainless Steel",

journal of the Southern

Africa Stainless Steel Development Association.

"As soon as the clouds

move away, the RSA will

... overtake the ROC."

In spite of the huge disparity in physical size,

Mr Kan sees several similarities between the two

countries.

One is in GNP, which

in Taiwan's case was

US$60 billion in 1985;

South Africa's was

US$54,3 billion.

Another is industry's

share of GNP - 45 percent in the case of Taiwan, 48 percent in the

case of South Africa —

and the large public-sector involvement in industry in each country.

In terms of invested

capital, Taiwan's public

sector accounts for 44,7

percent of total industrial

development, while that

of South Africa accounts

for 45,5 percent.

A third similarity is

that both countries rely

heavily on exports. In

1985, Taiwan's exports

constituted 51 percent of

its GNP; South Africa's

exports constituted 33

percent of GNP.

Among the differences,

one of the most striking

is that manufacturing

makes up 80,5 percent of

Taiwan's industry,

against 1,5 percent for

mining; in South Africa,

manufacturing makes up

40,5 percent and mining

44 percent.

The effect is that much

more investment is needed to create value in

South Africa than in Taiwan.

Comparing Taiwan's

textile industry to South

Africa's gold-mining

makes this clear.

In 1985, Taiwan's textile industry exported

goods worth about

US$7,54 billion from a

total investment base of

US$600 million.

South Africa's gold

production, which was

valued at US$7,5 billion,

needed an investment

base 62 percent bigger.

In addition, Taiwan's

textile industry employed

10 percent fewer workers

than did South African

gold mines.

"Moreover, textile

workers work comfortably in air-conditioned

plants, while miners have

to work underground,'

often 2 000 m below the

surface.

"This does not mean

that South Africa should.

give up gold-mining.

Without South African

gold, which supplies

more than 60 percent of

the free world's demand,

economic order would be

disrupted worldwide.

"The RSA should rather place more emphasis

on manufacturing and

start beneficiating its

raw materials to a

greater extent.

One Taiwanese system

Mr Kan believes could be

used to good effect in

South Africa is the "centre-satellite" system, in

which dozens of small

factories make components for finished products put together by

someone else.

After listing several

differences between Taiwan and South Africa, including unemployment

rates and the fact that

while 85 percent of Taiwan's goods are exported,

85 percent of South Africa's goods are for domestic consumption, Mr

Kan says the comparisons are not intended to

discourage South Africa.

"The RSA's abundant

labour and rich mineral

/esources are valuable

/assets, while the ROC is

limited by its small land

space7 and saturated pop-'

ulation; it has no or few

natural resources."

/9274

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SOUTH AFRICA

BICSA DIRECTOR GENERAL DISCUSSES CASE FOR UK INVESTMENT

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 20 Feb 87 p 91

[Interview with Bicsa Director General Nick Mitchell; date and place not given]

As Director General

[Text] of the British Industry

Committee on SA

(Bicsa), Nick Mitchell

is in the front line of

the battle to convince

British opinion that

there is a case for continued UK investment

in this country. He spoke to the FM last week

while on a visit to see for himself what's going

on in SA.

FM: What role can Bicsa play in current

South African developments?

Mitchell: Bicsa has 45 members. They

represent one third of all UK companies

investing in SA, but they control two thirds

of all investment. I've come here to speak to

the Federated Chambers of Industry, the

Afrikaanse Handelsinstituut and Assocom

as well as influential businessmen, government ministers, officials and others.

The key message is they should do more to

highlight positive developments in this country. There are many excellent social responsibility projects going on which are leading to

the "creative erosion" of apartheid.

Do you have any message for government?

The government is sick and tired of being

lectured to by outsiders. However, I must say

our own case for continued involvement can

only be justified if there is positive change. A

continuous block on any reform would make

it difficult for some UK firms to stay. We're

eagerly awaiting post-election developments.

Is British public opinion listening to your

views?

We receive a fair hearing in the serious

press. For example, a biased programme on

Gold Fields recently was heavily criticised by

reviewers. South Africans like Fleur de Villiers and John Kane-Berman have helped to

present a balanced view.

We are making some headway with the

moderate sanctions lobby, which includes

some church leaders, the UK Trade Union

Council, opposition MPs and local authorities.

The dismissal of the Indaba proposals is a

setback to our aims because it is felt to be a

most encouraging initiative. We are also sorry to lose Denis Worrall who has been a

highly respected and regarded ambassador.

I must emphasise that we are not simply

anti-sanctions. We applaud film companies

which refuse to show films in segregated

cinemas and we support any pressure which

will not seriously damage the economy.

Your organisation has been associated with

advocating a "Marshall Plan" for SA. What

does this entail?

The term "Marshall Plan" is misleading

as the original was a government sponsored

plan to rebuild a war-torn society. We don't

have a master plan, but we do want to

develop initiatives as alternatives to increasing sanctions. In this connection we liaise

with the US Corporate Council and the BDI

(German Chambers of Industry).

In particular, I believe a huge amount can

be done to narrow the gap between black and

white education. Inferior black education

has made it very difficult for companies to

get an adequate supply of skilled people and

middle managers.

Are any of your members considering new

investment in SA?

At the moment there's a voluntary EEC

ban on new investment and our members

would abide by that so as not to embarrass

the British government.

What plans have you made to talk to black

leaders?

The Urban Foundation has organised a

meeting with leading black opinion formers

here. There's nobody we're not prepared to

talk to.

We would talk to the African National

Congress (ANC) and believe our own colonial history shows it's better to talk to organisations sooner rather than later.

However, it would be wrong to see the

ANC as the only significant black group —

we would be equally happy to talk tc Inkatha, for example.

40

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SOUTH AFRICA

KLEU COMMITTEE IMPORTANCE IN 'SANCTIONS BUSTING' BUSINESS

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 20 Feb 87 p 95

[Text]

SA has moved smoothly into its age of sanctions as expertise from the public and private

sectors merged and co-operated. "Sanctions

busting" has become a new and highly effective business which clearly bolstered Finance

Minister Barend du Plessis in his prediction

that SA would again produce a current

account surplus in 1987.

Those getting goods in and out of SA

against the new international rules — businessmen, accountants, lawyers, political insurance brokers, public authorities and the

inevitable fly-by-nights — are understandably tight-lipped.

The most important single body in the

sanctions business is probably the Kleu

Committee on export incentives (FM February 13). It is investigating each sector of

commerce and industry to see how the annual R500m cost of export incentives can be

more effectively spent.

Clearly the advent of sanctions is at the

top of Kleu's agenda. Apart from technical

issues such as how to simplify the process of

claiming incentives, Kleu will be looking at

how exporting businesses most hit by sanctions can best recoup extra expenses associated with sanctions.

Cost is virtually synonymous with sanctions. As Ernst & Whinney's Pat Quarmby

points out, businesses in export and import

markets, or both, have to painstakingly investigate three main issues: method of payment, the physical passage of the goods, and

the shareholding structure of the company

involved.

The costs vary according to the type of

goods exported or imported. Highly visible

consumer goods, because of the potent emotional impact of SA sanctions — particularly

in the West — carry the highest cost. Traders of more basic products such as coal know

it's from SA but do not deliver it in that form

to consumers.

A vital point for Kleu to consider is that

the sanctions game is decades old and well

known. A Johannesburg-based political risks

broker points to trade with countries behind

the Iron Curtain, and more recently events in

Libya involving "Gaddafi bonds" as reasons

why his London underwriters did not bat an

eyelid at the new SA sanctions blanket.

What Kleu wants, essentially, is continuing improvement on SA's 1986 trade figures.

Exports of R42 billion and imports of R27

billion produced a trade surplus of R15 billion and a R6 billion current account surplus.

Some R13 billion worth of exports can be

traced to metals and minerals, with gold

accounting for a further RIO billion.

The international metals and commodities

markets rate as the most sophisticated after

financial markets, and they carry the feature

of intrinsic self-immunity to sanctions. And

SA's export prodigy — military hardware

produced in real rather than simulated war

zones — operates in a market with amoral

rules.

SA, after all, has been under an oil and

arms embargo for some time without visible

suffering. The exception is increased cost:

SA must pay a premium on imports and

discount exports to neutralise the castigation

if the foreign trader is caught with his fingers

in the cookie jar.

There are more encouraging pointers for

the future of SA's trade. Last year's statistics show that the largest increase in importexport trade came from Asia. The Far East

appears more pragmatic than the West

about SA sanctions: Asian businessmen and

governments tend, rightly, to put their own

economic welfare first.

41
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But even the West opens itself to numerous opportunities through its double standards. Despite last week's US call for an

international multilateral programme of

sanctions, the US will continue to import

certain SA metals. From that, unfortunately, comes the implication of a certain danger.

A foreign business threatened competitively by SA goods may spill the beans that

SA is trading in that market. Back home, by

the same token, a local worker who sees

embargoed goods being imported by his

company may do likewise.

By all accounts Kleu is doing a sterling

job, due largely to the composition of his

committee. It includes Bryan Clarke of the

CSIR, John Parsons of the NPI, Richard

Savage of Reunert, Wim Holtes of Safto,

Colin McCarthy of Stellenbosch University

and Hennie Reynders.

SA js busting sanctions, and there's no

point in blowing the trumpet on details.

The real tragedy ofsanctions missing from

the Kleu canvas is the amount of money that

will be made by unscrupulous middlemen.

Foreign operators are already said to be

ordering goods by the container-load, but

investigations by political risk brokers find

front-companies with no tangible assets.

42
SOUTH AFRICA

TRIMARK TO BUY KODAK LABORATORIES

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 20 Feb 87 pp 1, 2

[Article by Kay Turvey]

[Text]

TELTRON associate Trimark Agencies

is to buy Kodak laboratories in a deal

scheduled to be Concluded early next

Week, industry Sources say. .

The deal, which has been agreed to in

principle, comes after Eastman Kodak s

decision last year to pull out of SA.

The American photographic giant

hopes to have withdrawn fully by the end

° Kodak is believed to have lost heavily

on the sale of its operations because of

the hastiness of its pullout.

Other factors influencing the loss include the piecemeal basis on which the

company's operations are being sold.

Trimark will take over Kodak's nine

colour laboratories in major centres

countrywide.

It is understood there are to be no

retrenchments, with the buyer agreeing

to take over the existing staff of between

160 and 170.

Teltron, part of the Premier stable,

recently acquired a 60% holding in Trimark Agencies.

Kodak was the first company to tie its

withdrawal to a total ban on the sale of

its products in SA.

Shipments of Kodak products are to

end by April.

This will not affect laboratory operations. .

Specialist laboratory equipment is to

be sold with spares already in stock.

Staff members are to be trained m

equipment maintenance.

SAPA reports Kodak's head office

building on Black River Parkway in

Cape Town has been sold for R2,45m.

A large part of the building would be

let as offices, said a spokesman for

Brouwer and Associates, which negotiated the deal.

The buyer is a Cape Town businessman, who was represented in negotiations by Peter Conn.

The factory will be used for manufacturing.

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43
SOUTH AFRICA

CHAMBER PRESIDENT WARNS AGAINST TRADE BALANCE COMPLACENCY

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 20 Feb 87 pp 94, 95

[Text] Although the balance of trade last year was

9,4% up on the 1985 Figure and it shows

every prospect of continuing to grow, there is

no room for complacency.

Exports by value increased 15,1% in the

year to R41,797 billion but imports went up

by 18,5% to R26.894 billion, and import

growth may well outstrip exports in the

future.

Johannesburg Chamber of Commerce

president Pat Corbin says while most South

African exporters have good reputations for

quality and reliability, some marginal exporters may have gone into foreign markets

for the wrong reasons.

"Some firms started exporting because of

the low rand and they have already found

their margins eroded by inflation and a

steadier currency."

Renfreight national sales manager Tony

Kee says much of the export bonanza can be

ascribed to stockpiling by other countries

and seasonal factors. "We've seen a huge

fall-off in imports from Europe in the last

few weeks, but that's because of the big

freeze there."

Kee believes established exporters have

increased their foreign business, but he's

disappointed with new exporters' performance. "In the best of times it takes a year to

set up export markets, but some overseas

importers are now reluctant to be seen trading with SA.

"Europeans have a long fuse and they take

a long time to change their trading habits.

But we're not doing anything to make them

more patient with us. Many European businessmen consider us to be a chronically unstable country."

He says that "anything can be done

through middlemen," but all these moves

add heavily to costs.

Corbin adds that there is a "political discount" on South African goods, which now

have to be considerably cheaper than rival

products even though quality may be comparable.

Trade watchers also warn that it would be

wrong to put too mucn. faith t» the Far East.

Last year, South Africa* expoMs to the region increased by 24%, but h^orts increased

by a massive 42%.

Kee says Far East countries would not risk

their trade with the US and Europe to preserve rälativcly unimportant links with SA.

But he says there is still room for growth.

The chemical industry, a high quality and

efficient industry, has particular potential.

Another threat to local exports could come

from countries trying to correct negative

trade balances. Recently Sri Lanka, which

has a negative balance of more than R30m

with SA, said it would try to reduce its

chemical, fertiliser and iron and steel imports from SA.

Others take, a more pragmatic line —

Mauritius had a negative balance of trade

with SA of R134m (R138m to R4m) in

1986, but is not unduly concerned. "We also

receive about R30m from South African

tourism," says Mauritius Trade Representative Jean-Michel de Senneville. "Machinery

that is vital for our economic development

accounts for much of our imports from SA."

Corbin says more exporters are turning to

counter-trade and will have to consider accepting goods at least in part exchange if

markets are to remain secure.

Kee adds that much could be done in

export promotion if incentives were simplified and standardised. "At the moment, export incentives aren't readily comprehensible

and they tend to be changed frequently while

markets are being opened up."

/9274

CSO: 3400/226

44
ACTIVITY IN INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING MARKET

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 24 Feb 87 p 20

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

THE SA shipping market saw

good activity last week, although there was still a certain

amount of tonnage looking for

early March employment, Afromar says.

There were a few fixtures in the

coal trades last week, but activity

was generally at a lower level.

A combination cargo of 130 000

tons was arranged from Mobile and

Richards Bay to Japan at US$7,80

for early March loading, and a

similar cargo was arranged for later March dates at US$7,70.

A 30 000t cargo was arranged by

a trading house from Richards Bay

to Taiwan at US$10 for fairly

prompt loading. A cargo of about

30 000t to 35 000t was fixed from

Richards Bay to Santander at US$9

for a prompt position but subsequently failed.

Continental charterers took a

Cape-sized vessel on timecharter

with delivery on the Continent for

an SA round voyage at US$1,35.

Israeli charterers fixed a cargo

of around 40 000t to 50 000t from

Richards Bay to Ashdod but details

of the deal were not disclosed.

There was good inquiry in the

grain sector and several deals were

arranged, although charterers

' were not keen to give details.

There has been pressure on cargoes to the East and charterers

have therefore stabilised rates by

taking slightly larger vessels of

around the 35 000t size and fixing at

about the same levels as paid previously for the 28 000-tonners.

There are still several large cargoes to be covered to Japan including one of 42 000t for middle April

for which US$13,25 is indicated.

Korean charterers are also

wanting to lift a 20 000t cargo at the

end of March or early April. An

interesting inquiry was that of

14 000t to be shipped from East

London to Mexico for a first half of

March position.

A 15 OOOt cargo of rice was quoted from Pakistan to Beira on a

prompt position. Rice was also being quoted out of Bangkok to the

Comores with a cargo of just over

13 000t to be moved on an early

position, and there was a further

movement out of America to

Mozambique together with a small

amount of beans and wheat.

There was a 15 000t cargo of fertiliser being quoted from Richards

Bay to two ports in Turkey for

March shipment. Four cargoes,

each of 25 000t of steel slabs, were

being quoted from Durban to Santos in Brazil, for which a rate

of about US$7 was indicated.

Timecharter featured quite highly this week with a number of fixtures being arranged, although not

always being reported. A 40000t

vessel was taken by Japanese charterers to cover a coal cargo from

Richards Bay although the rate

was not reported.

Several vessels were negotiated

for the purpose of lifting grain cargoes, with a 34 000-tonner being

taken on this basis at US$6 500 daily for a March cargo to Japan. A

37 000 dw vessel was taken on private terms for a trip to the US.

Local traders took an early vessel

of about 21000 dw for a trip to the

East at US$2 800 daily.

Liner type tonnage of around

15 000 dw was taken for trips to the

East and to South America. A

26 000-tonner was fixed for a trip to

Israel.

Canadian charterers came into

the market for a lake-sized vessel

for delivery to Southern Africa in

the second half of March for a trip

to the Lakes or the US East Coast.

Turkish interests had a requirement for a vessel of around 17 000t

cargo capacity for a trip to Turkey

with steels and generals.

/9274

CSO? 3400/217

45
SOUTH AFRICA

BUSINESS LEADER DISCUSSES OUTLINE FOR NEW CONSTITUTION

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 13, 20 Feb 87

[Two part article by Hans Middelmann, Cape Town businessman and civic leader]

[Part I? 13 Feb 87 p 64]

[Text]

Politics, as now practised in SA, leads us

ever closer to disaster. We all know it and

fear it. Even government supporters are

aware of it, and the outside world is convinced of it.

Yet bizarre as it is, in the forthcoming

election government will be returned to

power — the awesome power that it wields,

to the best of its limited ability, over those

masses of South Africans who never elected

it. It cannot claim that it enjoys the consent

of those it governs.

Net emigration, 18% inflation, a state of

emergency, inability to meet our foreign obligations (despite a favourable balance of

payments), high unemployment and a muzzled press are only some of the signs of the

worsening position.

But this deterioration happened while government was actually repudiating and dismantling some of its own worst apartheid

legislation and promising further reforms.

This confirms the view that while apartheid is ostensibly the major cause of the

deterioration, the root cause lies much deeper: in our political system as such. This

system today enables the ruling government

virtually without constraint to enact any legislation it considers politically expedient. In

this way it legislates arbitrarily for the lives

and rights of the majority of the population

who have no redress either through the

courts or the ballot box.

That is why piecemeal reforms can no

longer get us out of our mess. What is required is not "steps in the right direction,"

but a fundamentally new political system

which serves all South Africans on an equal,

non-discriminatory basis.

SA has reached a phase in its history that

occurs in any nation's life. What we experience now has happened before elsewhere, in

different circumstances of course.

In all such previous cases, as in our situation today, pressures on the entire population

suadüy rose because rulers made arbitrary

laws and were out of touch with the masses.

When the pressures reached crisis point

unfortunate nations had bloody revolutions

on their hands; if the revolutionary forces

won'they usually turned out to be even more

arbitrary rulers than those replaced

Fortunate nations, on the other hand, at

their time of crisis had some patriotic people

of undoubted integrity, not political selfseekers, who across political divisions convinced each other — and the nation — that a

totally new dispensation would bring peace

and prosperity. Those farsightcd people had

come to realise that the key to a situation of

conflict lay in diffusion of power rather than

in its concentration.

As a result of this insight — and the

realisation that no single faction could rule

without major coercion of all others — they

managed to bring about agreement on the

basic and well-tried principles of a constitution under which the most diverse groups

could live peacefully.

We have today among us numerous such

patriotic people of all colours and of undoubted integrity who, if they got together, could

point the way to the new South Africa. It is

clear that the need for fundamental, instead

of incremental, reform is recognised. There

are innumerable South Africans and various

groups working on solutions to the problem.

46
To name but

a few:

D The KwaNatal Indaba which, ona regional basis, was successfully concluded; D Louw and Kendall's book The Solution

which has becomea best seller and is widely

discussed; D The Federated Chamber of Industries'

Charter of Social, Economic and Political

Rights and Assocom's declarations, which

have been widely accepted; and D The "Let South Africa Speak" movement

and other similar citizen activities designed

to create fundamental constitutional change.

All these efforts now need to be co-ordinated and given substance in a single movement.

It would spell out in simple, explicit words

the broad base of universal individual liberty

on whicha new constitution for SA would

have to be based if the 30-odd million people

between the Cape and the Limpopo are to

live peacefully together and prosper.

The classic words on which the oldest and

most successful constitution was based over

200 years ago in America may serve our case

and can hardly be improved upon: "We hold

these truths to be self-evident, that all men

are created equal, that they are endowed by

their Creator with certain inalienable rights;

that among these are life, liberty, and the

pursuit of happiness. That to secure these

rights, governments are instituted among

men, deriving their just powers from the

consent of the governed: that whenever any

form of government becomes destructive of

these ends, it is the right of the people to alter

or to abolish it, and to institutea new government, laying its foundations on such principles, and organising its powers in such form,

as to them shall seem most likely to effect

their safety and happiness."

True, these words were written in different

circumstances, but they apply word for word

to our situation.

But what is needed to give substance to

these ideals? Firstly, it requires the drafting

ofa clear model of the new South African

constitution, the principles and mechanics of

which can be understood by all. It also requires an exploration of the ways its general

acceptance by all South Africans can be

assured and, finally, how the transition from

the present outdated system to the new dispensation can be legally and peacefully effected.

Above all, the main problem witha new

political structure is to get it accepted by the

majority of South Africans. Successful new

dispensations have always been introduced

asa result ofa popular movement of some

kind.

It is here that the private sector, in the

personal, rather than the corporate sense,

througha number of outstanding personalities, men and women, black and white,

could now make an historic contribution toa

great future for our country.

Ifa few successful leaders in their respective fields — and that clearly includes labour

leaders and professional people— working

directly together and drawing on the vast

resources and resourcefulness of their sectors, would start a popular movement with

clearly defined aims, the benefit to the country would be enormous.

Following the definition of aims (which

has largely been done already, but needs

firm co-ordination),a large and professional

public relations programme by the private

sector would be launched with the support of

the media.

One would expect that the various private

sector organisations would join and support

the movement, keeping in mind the large

issues rather than details on which they may

differ.

After all, it is not in our power to change

the basic attitudes and variety of our population. Under whatever political dispensation,

the Boesaks, Bothas, Buthelezis, Eglins,

Hendrickses, Gumedes, Mandelas, Malans,

Marais, Rajbansis, Tambos and Treurnichts (to name but a few well-known representative figures in alphabetical order), will

be part of the South African nation for the

forseeable future.

At present some of these politicians are in

a position to rule most of the others, who

naturally resent it and try to overthrow the

oppressive regime. The resultant situation of

increasing conflict is there for all to see.

It is in our power to reach agreement on

a system under which they can co-operate,

where no one has to give up his language,

religion or voluntary life style, and none can

be subjected to arbitrary laws made by any

of the others.

47
[Part II? 20 Feb 87 pp 66, 67]

[Text]

The disaster that threatens South Africa is

unlikely to be averted by the re-election of

th-> government in the forthcoming general

election. It is not the individuals forming

government that are at fault, but rather the

system that allows, or rather forces, them

arbitrary legislative control over the lives

and rights of the majority of the population

who have, no redress either through the

courts or the ballot box.

The present constitution is founded on the

premise that there are race groups with irreconcilable interests which must be kept apart — and that the white group, to preserve its

own "identity," must dominate the others.

This can never be acceptable to the broad

mass of South Africans.

The impoverishment and instability of our

country is likely to accelerate under the present system. Only by discarding the. race

group principle and substituting the individual as the prime object of concern can we

transcend the struggle for power now being

waged—a struggle no group can win and

which will progressively impoverish us the

longer it continues.

If we could release, onä non-discriminatory basis, the latent energy and talent of all

South African people (not the peoples of

South Africa— who ever heard of the peoples of America?) we would not have to have a foreign minister to visit parts of our country pretending they are independent and

foreign, nor would our rand be worth less

than halfa dollar.

A constitution based on the primacy of the

individual, as distinct from the race group to

which he is deemed to belong, is not only

essential to resolve the present conflict— it

would also create the conditions for rapid

economic growth. It would do this first by reintegrating the South African economy with

the outside world, eliminating sanctions and

attracting foreign investment. Second and

more important, it would make availablea

vast, at present unused, productive potential

and remove the need for massive unproductive expenditure to maintain the present system against external threats and internal

disaffection.

Fora new constitution to earn general

acceptance it must provide for universal

adult suffrage— one man, one vote. Nothing

less will do.

It must also break with the past by limiting the power of government. It must protect

the individual against the tyranny of unchecked parliamentary majorities which

have been the ruin of many nations.

New Constitution

The constitution must be rigid, with an

independent judiciary empowered and

charged with the duty to annul unconstitutional Acts, particularly any that infringe a

Bill of Rights embodied in the constitution.

The Bill of Rights would give every citizen

equal opportunities, including equal access

to education, as well as: D Freedom to apply his or her talents and

resources to what he or she perceives to be

the best advantage; D Freedom of movement and the right to

own property anywhere in the country; D Freedom of association, of thought and

expression, and D A free press.

The principles outlined so far are the basis

of the constitutions of all stable and prosperous countries in the world. When it comes to

the mechanics of the election of parliament,

government and the president, and the degree of the diffusion of executive powers,

solutions vary from country to country.

The following part of the model ofa new

South African constitution is drawn with the

objective of ensuring formation ofa workable parliament and government. It is drawn

against the background of our history of

enforced racial separation and the wide geographic, economic, linguistic, religious and

cultural diversity of our population. A combination of the best and most appropriate features of the American, Swiss and

German constitutions, it is only one ofa

number of possible variations. It is not prescriptive and is offered here as an example of

the kind of solution that can be. envisaged in

practical terms.

Our model constitution would in the firstplace provide for a federal structure. It

would consist of, say, 10 component states,

as determined bya boundary commission; all

territorially consolidated, with no enclave of

one to be found in another. Broadly they

would probably coincide with already accepted demarcations, such as northern

Transvaal or western Cape, and would be

geographically, not ethnically, defined. Each

state would have its own constitution subject

toa basic conformity in the appointment ofa

governor anda legislative structure consistent with that of the federal legislature.

There would bea two-house Legislative

Assembly.

The Senate would consist of 60 senators,

six from each state, elected for six years, one

third of whom would retire every two years.

The House of Representatives would consist of 300 members, elected for four years.

48
Of those, 150 would be elected by constituencies; the other 150 on a proportional vote

and state basis, witha minimum of 10% of

the state vote required for any party.

Three members of either house would be

elected to the presidency fora three-year

term by simple majority of both houses. No

two members of the presidency may be from

the same party and, by rotation, each would

hold the office of president for one year. The

other two would be vice-presidents.

The presidency appoints for three years

the Ministers' Council or Cabinet, whose

members need not be members of the legislature, subject to ratification by the Senate.

This structure is designed to bring together in a single, workable system elected representatives of all shades of opinion and geographical diversity. It would make one-party

government impossible, and, in line with the

common interests of the diverse population,

would make multi-party government desirable and necessary. The rotating presidency

should ensure that one year the president

could be black, another year, white.

It should be clear that if the white group is

to give up its present unfettered right to use

the power of the State to coerce all other

groups—a power it will have to surrender

sooner or later in any event— all groups

within South African society must perceive

that it is in the general interest to bring the

use of power under control, irrespective of

who may acquire the authority to wield it.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely, as Lord

Acton said. If power is to be in the hands of

the people, the ordinary citizen must be

protected against the whims of those who

presume to exercise that power in the name

of the people.

Distribution of wealth

Bearing in mind that the majority of

South Africans have been and are at an

economic disadvantage, any new dispensation must include enabling provisions to deal

with this problem;

These cannot, of course, be based on the

simplistic view thata redistribution of existing wealth over the whole population would

be the answer. * Any solution must proceed from the insight that the production of wealth must

precede its distribution. No government anywhere has been as efficient and successful in

producing wealth as those in countries where

there is free interaction of all the complex

components of an economy.

Where, in other words, all people have

equal access to opportunities and can freely

interact in the economy, and neither the

State nor powerful employer or employee

groups can manipulate it. To ensure this is

one of the economic functions of the State.

The other function is helping the poor and

the disadvantaged. This can come only from

general revenue, from taxation of those who

create the wealth of the country. Aid must be

given directly to those in need. If the State

distorts the economy through manipulation

of prices and wages or other measures ostensibly in favour of the needy, it inevitably

destroys some of the wealth it is trying to

redistribute.

Economic council

For this reason the model of the new

constitution envisages the creation ofa

Council for Social and Economic Reconstruction under the chairmanship of the governor of the Reserve Bank.

It is to consist of 15 members, appointed

for five years by the presidency from lists

submitted by the creators of Wealth— that

is, private sector organisations, including

trade unions.

The council's task will be to consider and

report on the Budget and all Bills apportioning federal funds to the states before the Bills

go before the legislature. This would ensure

that parliament was fully aware of the consequences if it intended to distribute wealth

that did not exist, as many countries have

done to their detriment.

Assuming the principles ofa new constitution along the lines described here would

gain the support of the majority of South

Africans, how coulda peaceful transition to

it be achieved?

The answer has been found on many occasions in circumstances which seemed more

intractable than ours today.

If it can be convincingly demonstrated

that there is an alternative to an intolerable

position, some of the very people who misguidedly helped to create it will help dismantle

it.

How else did we get rid of the Immorality

and Mixed Marriages Acts?

What then must we do? Prosperous societies with the highest quality of life, materi

ally and culturally, are those that

embody the principle of individual freedom. Freedom is the indispensable condition for economic g.owth and productivity. As has been said: 'Tor, human

potential being approximately similar everywhere it is organisation and institutions

which'determine winners and losers among

human groupings."

If we want to be among the winners, our

political institutions must be restructured

according toa totally new constitution.

49
/9274

CSOs 3400/227

To realise this vision of a new South

Africa requires its propagation now by a

popular movement. Because our political

system has become skewed and divisive, the

initiative for this movement can only come

out of the economically active population

which is not directly involved in politics, but

desperately needs a framework in which it

can fulfil its aspirations.

This widely diversified private sector,

comprising workers, professional people, farmers, traders and industrialists, constitutes

the powerful engine that keeps SA going

even in adverse circumstances.

The private sector achieves these results

because it is innovative and has learned,

where it is most successful, to be way ahead

of official political thinking. It acts in the

knowledge that if clear, impartial organisational structures are understood and accepted by those who work within them, the results are rewarding in human and material

terms.

It needs a handful of people of stature, of

different colours, to bind themselves together to get this process under way. The model

constitution envisages a rotating presidency

to ensure that factually and symbolically

black and white South Africans work together at all levels to their mutual benefit and for

the good of their'country.

Private enterprise has long ago discovered

that this can be done successfully, and has

organised itself accordingly. Its greatest

challenge is now to use its initiative and

resources to propagate and accomplish the

essential fundamental reform of our political

structures.

50
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

SWEDEN CUTS IMPORTS—Harare—Swedish imports from SA fell by more than 70%

in the past two years as part of Sweden's sanctions campaign, Zimbabwe's news

agency Ziana claims. Sweden imported about R32.5m worth of goods from SA

between January and September last year, against about Rll2m in 1985. [Text]

[Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 23 Feb 87 p 3] /9274

NO SHORTAGE OF JOBS FOR ENGINEERS—In spite of the brain drain, there is no

shortage of engineers in South Africa. The Federation of Societies of Professional Engineers manpower survey shows there are still two jobs for every

engineer entering the profession. Although the recession has reduced the

number of jobs available, fewer graduates are entering the profession. Immigrants took up a fifth of the available jobs in the past 15 years, but their

numbers have dropped. The federation says there is growing demand for agricultural engineers. If economic activity revives, civil engineers will not be

able to cope with the work load. More electronic than electrical engineers

are qualifying annually—causing fewer than 1.2 jobs for every electronics

graduate. There are more than four jobs for every new electrical engineer,

[Text] [Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES in English 22 Feb 87 p 11] /9274

CPI INFLATION RATE DROPS 2 PERCENT—Inflation, as measured by the consumer price

index (CPI), dropped by 2% to 16.1% in January, Central Statistical Services

said. This was the lowest year-on-year increase since July 1985, when the increase was 15.9%. The increase was 18.2% in December and 19,2% in November.

The CPI rose 1,4% in January to 248.3 compared with a 1% rise in December to

244,9 indicating that inflationary pressures have not yet eased. The lower

year-on-year rate was mainly because of the above-average monthly 3.1%

increase in the CPI in January 1986, when inflation reached a peak of 20.7%.

This year's increase therefore was taken off a high base. Between January

1986 and 1987, the rate of increase in the price index was 16.3% for the lower

income group, 16.4% for the middle income group and 15.9% for the higher income

group. Food prices contributed to more than half the 1.4% increase in the CPI

last month, rising 3.1%—the highest since January 1986, when they rose 4.4%.

[Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 24 Feb 87 p 1] /9274

SAMCOR DENIES SEVERING FORD LINKS—Fork (UK) and Samcor may be about to sever

links, says British media reports reacting to the drop-off in business between

the two. However, Samcor, which traded in SA as Ford SA until 1985, has rejected the reports in the GUARDIAN and the MORNING STAR as unfounded after

contacting Ford (UK). Samcor's group MD Spencer Sterling said: "Journalists

pursuing the story which was raised in the publication ANTI-APARTHEID NEWS,

were told that Ford of Britain's trade with SA was declining for sound commer51
cial and economic reasons and figures were given to support this. "It was made

clear to journalists that no decision to stop trade with Sancor has been taken."

Another Samcor spokesman said the contractual agreement with Ford (UK) could

not immediately be terminated. But he made it clear that if Ford (UK) terminated its supply agreement, Samcor would be able to source the same parts from

other countries. "It's better not to say where," he said. Samcor supplies of

spares and components from Ford (UK) amounted to R130m in 1986, down on R150m

in 1985. [Text] [By Mick Collins] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English

24 Feb 87 p 3] /9274

CSO: 3400/218 i

52
SOUTH AFRICA

TELKOR ACQUIRES AEI HENLEY

Pretoria ARMED FORCES in English Feb 87 p 17

[Text] Telkor (Pty) Ltd, the telecommunications and electronic engineering arm of

Reunert Limited, a Barlow Rand company, has bought PABX manufacturer

and marketer AEI Henley Africa (Pty) Ltd.

It was acquired from GEC South Africa

which is 50% owned by GEC UK. The acquisition which dates back to October 1,

makes AEI Henley 100% South Africanowned.

"We see this acquisition as complementary to our present business. Being a hi-tech company with a telecommunications background, we believe our

strength lies in the flexibility of being

South African-owned", says Dave King,

group managing director of Telkor.

A big slice of Telkor's business is in

telecommunications. It also manufactures and supplies very large PABX

systems. The company installed an

11 500 line system, the largest in the

southern hemisphere, at Johannesburg

railway station in 1983.

It also developed locally, the coinoperated telephones now used in South

Africa and installed Transkei's rural radio

telephone system.

AEI Henley now holds a significant

share of South Africa's electronic PABX

market. Its range meets the needs of

small, medium and large undertakings.

The Micro Electronics Division (MED)

is primarily concerned with the design of

electronic systems using semi-custom

integrated circuits. A device designed by

MED, the SA857 scan and signal interface circuit, won a Shell Design Award in

1985. AEI Henley's Data Division markets

very competitive modems, protocol conveners and Beitel terminals.

/9274

CSOs 3400/212

53
SOUTH AFRICA

MANUFACTURING COMPANY TO INVEST R45 MILLION IN KWAZULU

Pretoria SOUTH AFRICAN DIGEST in English 6 Feb 87 p 14

[Text]

A major South African manufacturing company. Metal Box, is to

make a R45-million investment at

one of the KwaZulu industrial estates

in the Tugcla Basin.

The information is contained in

the latest issue of the Developer, the

quarterly publication of the KwaZulu

Finance and Investment Corporation

(RFC).

The Chief Minister of KwaZulu,

Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, urged

industrialists to invest in the Tugela

Basin.

The article says the KFC continues to establish one new factory

every nine working days at its Tugela

Basin industrial estates of Isithebe,

Ezakheni and Madadeni.

The establishments create 10 new

jobs every working day, the article

says.

The KFC says its industrial marketing division reports a level of interest and activity which has never

been higher.

Late last year it was handling an

average of 46 inquiries a month from

industrialists interested in establishing themselves on the KwaZulu estates, compared with only 30 a

month the previous year and 40 the

year before.

The corporation says 19 new factories have already been established

or are being established during the

current financial year. Thirty-three

applications for factories have been

approved.

The KFC says the new factories

are expected to create a total of 2 378

jobs.

/9274

CSOt 3400/208

54
SOUTH AFRICA

BOOSTING TREATMENT CAPACITY AT HARTEBEESTFONTEIN GOLD MINE

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 6 Feb 87 p 98

[Article by Brendan Ryan]

[Text]

Hartebeestfontein gold mine is one of the few

top-quality gold shares near the financial

reach of the smaller investor. This is thanks

largely to the ten-for-one share split in 1984

— without that the current share price

would be about R240 and not R24. Small

investors have another, cheaper route into

Harties through Zandpan, which holds 22m

Harties shares. Each Zandpan share is worth

about 16,9% of a Harties share, and should

trade at a fixed ratio to Harties, although it

sometimes moves out of line.

Hence, there is considerable investor interest in the mine. Harties is currently building a new R135 m gold recovery plant to

treat low-grade surface material, and is restructuring underground operations following the decision to temporarily close two

shafts and boost production from others.

The moves create interesting possibilities

for the mine, particularly the 50% boost in

treatment capacity to result from the new

plant. However, controlling mining house

Anglovaal says the life of the mine remains

at about 20 years, based on exploitation of

the Vaal Reef horizon at unchanged rates

from present production levels.

That the gold recovery plant is being financed from internal funds has implications

for Harties' dividend flow. This in turn affects Anglovaal, as the mine is a major

contributor to the group's income. Anglovaal

manager, Rob Wilson, says the internal

funding should not be a major constraint,

depending on gold prices received. Still, the

effects became apparent in results for the

year to end-June; Harties held back R 16,1m

(14c a share) in uistributable earnings to

help fund the plant. A further R28m was

retained in the six months to end-December.

The dividend for the year to end-June was

a record at 110c a share and the best since

the 102,5c paid in the 1981 year. Last interim the payout was increased to 60c a share

from the previous comparable interim of 45c.

So far, the rand gold price has more than

compensated for the restraints on distributable earnings. Next year the plant will be

completed and capital expenditure should

fall off rapidly once it is commissioned.

During 1985 Harties' management radically changed their traditional approach to

running the mine when the decision was

taken to mothball the Nos 8 and 2A shafts.

Mine manager Allister Clayton says the aim

is now to have only four shafts hoisting to

surface — the Nos 4, 5 and 7 shafts and the

newly-completed No 6 north shaft system.

"Previously we placed great emphasis on

flexibility of our mining operations, and the

ability to select mining faces and therefore

maintain the grade," he says. "The disadvantage of that approach was that shafts

were under-used, which pushed up working

costs. We have increased output from the

Nos 5 and 6 shaft areas to make up for

tonnage previously drawn from the Nos 8

and 2A shafts.

"Doing this has involved a boost in the

face advance of mining operations in these

areas from about 5,5 m/month to about

7,5 m/month. Our target is to push this to

8 m/month," he says.

The reduced mining flexibility does present some problems. One is that the mine is

less able to control its recovery grade. Harties had managed to contain the drop in

average recovery grade remarkably well over

55
the past 10 years through ore sorting on

surface to upgrade mill feed, and through

flexibility underground. Average recovery

grade was 11,3 g/t in 1977, and 9,6 g/t in

the 1986 year. Grade hit a low of 9,1 g/t in

the 1985 September quarter, but has since

recovered steadily to 10 g/t in the 1986 December quarter.

"We are finding higher grades than originally anticipated in the deeper areas of 6

north. We are currently drawing 70 0001 of

ore a month out of the 6N shaft, and it will

be pushed to 103 000 t/month in 1987 and

eventually to 120 000 t/month," says Clayton. "However, once this area has been

mined out the grade will return to its declining trend as we move into remaining western

areas of the mine's lease."

One thing that will not change is the

mine's underground production. It will remain at the current level of about 750 0001

milled per quarter for the rest of Harties'

estimated 20-year economic life.

The new treatment plant is scheduled to

be commissioned in January 1988 and has

been planned to tie in with the remaining life

of the mine. The plant increases Harties'

treatment capacity by nearly 50% but its

operations in treating surface material, with

an average yield of about 1,3 g/t, would

probably not be economic on a stand-alone

basis once underground mining has ceased.

That would appear to rule out using the

new plant to treat some of the other reefs in

the lease area, such as the Livingstone-Johnstone series. These, at grades between 2 g/t

and 4 g/t, are of much lower grade and are

patchier in value than the rich and consistent

Vaal Reef that the mine exploits.

Harties is drilling the south-western corner of its lease area to assess its potential.

Two initial boreholes gave good values on the

Vaal Reef of 2 878 cm.g/tand 1 423 cm.g/t,

but results from the two latest boreholes,

TL 49 and TL 50, showed the Vaal Reef to

be faulted out. Extension of the mine's life

beyond 20 years depends on this drilling and

on what exploration work may reveal west of

Harties' lease area, in an area controlled by

Anglovaal's exploration arm. Middle Witwatersrand Areas (Mid Wits).

Clayton says this area was mined at the

turn of the century by New Klerksdorp Mining Co, exploiting the Ada May reef at

shallow depths and recovering about 5 g/t. itcould be a source of low grade ore for Harties.

Harties' unit working costs are high, hitting R109,24/t milled in the December

quarter. With the economic advantages expected from the re-organisation of underground mining operations, Clayton hopes to

hold future increases below the rate of increases in the consumer price index.

Working costs could be boosted by a potential problem which the mine may encounter some 10 years down the track. This

concerns the cost of pumping water from the

mineworkings. Harties does not have a wau»-

problem at present because its working.1;, are

kept dry by pumps at Gencor's neighbouriug

Stilfontein mine. However, Stilfonteir. is

nearing the end of its life and, depending on

the gold price, could close down within eight

to 10 years.

As the deepest point in the Klerksdorp

area lies inside the boundaries of Harties'

lease, the mine is expected to encounter water inflow problems. It will have to cope

either by installing its own pumping capacity, or by taking over the Stilfontein p. ip

stations in the same way that Grootvle'; on

the East Rand runs the pumps at SA Land's

No 1 shaft.

/9274

CSO: 3400/212

56
ESCOM'S ASH WASTES TO BE USED IN INDUSTRY, BUILDING

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 5 Feb 87 p 10

[Text]

SOUTH AFRICA

ESCOM is getting rid of mountains

of ash from its coai-fired stations

by selling it to private enterprise

for use in industry and construction.

Escom's ash marketing drive

was highlighted at an international

symposium which began in Pretoria

ia yesterday.

A host of local and overseas scientists are attending the CSIR's

five-day think-tank on handling

and possible further usage of coal

ash, which is otherwise just a

waste product.

Escom said in 1986 its power

stations produced 16-million tons

of ash.

Restricting

The Escom programme to use

and market coal ash will be linked

closely with the requirements of

local industry and aimed at restricting the impact of Escom's activities on the environment.

A spokesman said: "Escom is a

world leader in the burning of lowgrade coal at its power stations. It

does this in order to release high

quality coal for export and use in

the metal and chemical industries.

"The disadvantage of burning

iow-grade coal is that an enormous

amount of pulverised fuel ash is

produced as an end product — at

some stations as much as 20 000

tons a day.

"We welcome the initiative of

private enterprise in collecting

and utilising coal ash which can be

a valuable material with many

uses in industry, construction and

even agriculture."

Potential uses of coal ash include making concrete, mineral

extraction, grouting, fertiliser, tile

and ceramic production, and as an

ingredient of mineral wool, paint

and toothpaste filler.

In SA, ash is already being used

in road building, concrete structures and also in brick-making —

chiefly for stock and experimental

face bricks.

At power stations it is used for

building roads and tracks, reservoir walls and for mud and dust

control.

During the past 23 years, Escom,

in co-operation with the coal mining industry, has gained considerable experience in disposing of ash

in underground mine workings.

Environment

Ash from Escom's new Lethabo

power station will be put into the

open cast mine at New Vaal Colliery.

An investigation was made into

the possible impact of the ash on

the environment and into dust,

noise and water pollution before it

was decided to dispose of the ash

there.

fetiM (*> ewibgl *=•.;.' 8eS>l

Concave surface

Air is excluded

from this area.

and fire is

discard extinguished

dumP rchirn^V

Trench/ »^Burning is

(town to 'reduced as i*

»W .*. flow from

pound level

k reduced

«•wel Mbi**t) MbMM ntetnocj

vi »xlhuiuleiftMej

/9274

CSOs 3400/208

57
NEW WAY TO CUT POLLUTION FROM COAL DUMP FIRES

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 5 Feb 87 p 10

[Article by Peter Stacey]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text] A SYSTEM developed by Rand

Mines for the prevention and

control of fires in coal waste

dumps, has cut smoke from two

burning dumps by 80%.

Digby Wells, manager of the

group's environmental protection

department, says the system has

been remarkably successful at the

group's Welgedacht colliery at

Utrecht, as well as at Wolvekrans

opencast mine near Witbank.

Burning waste coal dumps have

long been a serious pollution hazard

Dump fires also destroy a potential

future energy source.

"Waste" coal from washing plants,

which extract high grade clean coal

for export, is stored on huge dumps.

The waste may contain 40% and

higher fractions of incombustible

minerals, but the balance is coal, and

highly susceptible to spontaneous

combustion. Once alight, the dumps

can burn for decades.

With new dumps, a compacting

process to cut air voids and a layer of

topsoil are used to prevent spontaneous combustion. At a later stage,

when technology and economics

make feasible the use of the lower

grade coal, the topsoil can be

stripped off and the coal reclaimed.

However, until now no economically viable -and effective means of

stopping existing fires had been devised.

The Rand Mines approach allows

continued deposition on existing

dumps — and puts out fires at the

same time.

The first stage of the operation is

to grade a strip down to hard ground

at the base of the burning dump. This

not only provides some topsoil for

later use, but also eliminates the permeable region of soil through which

air could feed through to th-i fire.

New waste material is tluai compacted in layers around the base of

the dump — sloped inwards to carry

rainwater into the dump. Water control is a major component of the

operation. While compaction aims at

achieving the critical air voids level

of 15%, moisture in the dump further

fills the voids.

The top of the dump is also graded,

with a slope to the centre, and berms

(ridges) may be constructed to hold . water in the dump. This has the added effects of limiting erosion of the

sides and avoiding water pollution.

Built up

The compacted w:iste is gradually

built up all the way to the top of the

dump, with a lm topsoil layer at the

Outside. The new side is sloped at 30

degrees and planned to give a minimum 10m width of compacted material at the top — this figure gives a

two times margi.i of safety over the

estimated 5m air penetration limit.

The oldjjractice of simply "dumping" material from a tip and letting

it spill down the side of the dump

meant large pieces of coal and rock

gravitated to the bottom and smaller

particles staged at the top. This created a chimney effect, with air filtering through at the base and hot gas

escaping higher up.

By blocking the chimney at the

bottom, Rand Mines* system has an

almost immediate effect on the fire.

It may not be extinguished, but it is

effectively choked and pollution is

drastically cut.

The fire is extinguished when the

cladding reaches the top.

/9274

CSOj 3400/208

58
SPRAY-ON FIREPROOF SEALANT DEVELOPED FOR MINES

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 24 Feb 87 p 13

[Article by Peter Stacey]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text} A SPRAY-ON fireproof

sealant for mine tunnels,

Ceramospray, is to be

manufactured in SA.

One of the target use

areas is ventilation sealing of underground tunnels — a sensitive area

since the Kinross fire disaster.

A spokesman for the

manufacturers, Cullinan

Refractories, says the

material is non-toxic,

non-flammable and asbestos free.

The use of the ceramic

and mineral fibre blend

sealant in mines will be a

first for SA. To date,

overseas usage has been

mainly for structural fireproofing.

Tests by the SA Bureau of Standards are at

present under way for

certification and fire

rating, as are negotiations for distribution of

the product by a major

mining supply company.

Cullinan market development manager

John Carroll says gearing up for production of

the new product range —

which includes variants

for use in other industries — has cost a modest R200 000. The low

cost in new capital is because production dovetails well with existing

product lines and equipment.

An attractive property of the sealant is its low

heat transmissivity —

thus helping control temferatures underground.

t can also be used as a

lagging material, particularly for keeping

cool chilled water — an

area for which polyurethane foam and PVC

sheeting have been used

in the past.

The new material,

which is sprayed on as a

slurry, is well suited to

mining use. The component proportions have

been tailored to cope

with the high rock face

temperatures in South

African deep-level mining. Carroll says Ceramospray requires minimal reinforcement and

is resilient and hence resistant to fracturing due

to ground movement.

/9274

CSOj 3400/213

59
SOUTH AFRICA

GLASS RECYCLING PROJECT REPORTED

Pretoria SOUTH AFRICAN DIGEST in English 6 Feb 87 p 14

[Text] Consol Limited, the largest producer of glass packaging in South

Africa, has launched a new

R350 000 project to encourage glass

recycling.

Involving sets of three space-age

igloo containers for green, white and

brown glass the objective is to solicit

consumer support for glass

recycling.

"The South African glass industry annually produces 360 000 tons

of glass packaging," says Consol environmental affairs manager Mr

Hennie Barnard.

"At present we recycle 50 000

tons of used glass a year, but this is

only 26% of what we are capable of

handling."

Investigations abroad indicated

success with the igloo-type bottle

bank being used in Europe.

A pilot project was introduced in

South Africa and results were

excellent.

Now new bottle-bank depots are

being opened on the Reef at the rate

of two a month.

Each depot is run for the benefit

of a community organisation, such

as child welfare, animal protection

and environmental conservation,

which receives an income proportional to the volume of glass

collected.

/9274

CSO» 3400/208

60
SOUTH AFRICA

NEED TO DEVELOP STAINLESS STEEL INDUSTRY ADDRESSED

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 16 Jan 87 p 66

[Text]

As the sanctions campaign against SA forces

a closer look at the beneficiation of thecountry's mineral wealth, attention is turning increasingly to chrome.

Government is now being urged to take

the initiative in developing a viable, exportbased stainless steel industry. Experts say

this has the potential to increase current

earnings from chrome ore exports seventyfold.

In the face of strong demand for so many

of its primar\ products, SA has lagged behind the rest of I he world in the drive to add

v;i!uc to exportable raw materials.

for instance, while SA has almost 70% of

the worki's known chromium reserves, it currently provides less than 1% of international

stainless .steel production.

Raw chrome ore earns some RI00/t on

world markets while ferro-chromc sells for

about Rl 000/t. But it is during the third

and fourth stages of beneficiation that earnings really rocket. • ,• '.-

Stainless steel plate currently sells for

R.i 000-R3 500/t while finished products

can earn R6 000-R7 000/t --. or about 70

times more than raw ore.

"Government should support or subsidise

a major stainless steel manufacturing plant.

along the lines of lscor or Sasol,'7says Mintek president Aiden Hdwards. "While this

could involve an investment of Rl billion to

R2 billion it would set off major growth in

the stainless steel industry."

With investment ofthat order, and considering the current economic climate, State aid

is seen as the only possible stimulant for the

industry.' Support would also be needed

while the industry finds its feet in the early,

high-risk stage while fighting its way into

international markets. Edwards says the private sector could go into partnership with

government, or the industry could be privatised at a later stage.

'■■ While there's much to be said against the

State adding to the list of protected industries, mineral experts argue that the benefits

in evport earnings and job creation, particularly in the special case of chrome, outweigh

the dangers.

South African chrome exports last year

topped Rl billion for the first time, with

ferro-chromc sales accounting for some

R750m. But with the West virtually dependent on SA and Zimbabwe for its strategic

chrome supplies — the only other major

source is Russia — clearly SA has not yet

played its chrome card.

"Chrome — like manganese and vanadium is a strategic mineral for Western

armaments industries," notes George Malan. executive director of the Stainless Steel

Development Association. "But, whereas

other State-supported projects like ADE,

Sasol and Afprene were started for strategic

reasons, an indigenous stainless steel industry makes straight economic sense."

Gavin Millar, Middelburg Steel and Alloys marketing strategy manager, says a

Stainless steel plant with a capacity of

100 000 t a year, similar to his group's plant

at Middelburg, would now cost R800mR900nl and would take two to'three years to

reach breakeven point.

"Flat stainless steel exports from such a

plant could earn R300m-R350m a year

while providing about 2 500 jobs. But if the

investment led to more downstream production, earnings would rocket and many more

jobs could be created. The major problems at

this stage, Millar adds, are sanctions threats,

the confidence required for such an investment, finance and lack of skills.

Joint ventures with Eastern countries such

as Taiwan or Korea could be part of the

61
SA's mineral wealth

Export earnings 1985: total Rm 33 994

Gold 44,9%

Non-minerals 26,:

Other minerals 1,1%

Coal 9,1%

Ferrous metals 6,8%

Precious metals

and stones 8,7%

Non-ferrous

metals 3,1% Source: Mintek

/9274

CSO: 3400/212

solution. But Miilar cautions against this,

pointing out that the partner could pull out

at a critical stage if the climate changes. The

major benefit of a joint venture would be the

skills rub-off and marketing connections.

Edwards is adamant that an investment in

a stainless steel plant should be seen as a

long-term commitment, while he sees sanctions and other political problems in SA as

essentially short- to medium-term problems.

"We have to look beyond our immediate

constraints," he says. "By investing in the

future of our minerals industry we will ensure future growth, job creation and a thriving local manufacturing industry. Adding

value to our mineral riches is the precondition for future economic growth."

62
SOUTH AFRICA

MOTOR INDUSTRY SALES FIGURES UP

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 13 Feb 87 p 89

TTextl 1 J

The motor jjidustry breathed a collective sigh

of relief with the publication of January car

sales figures. They showed sales of 14 059

units, 16,4% up on December. Performance

was also 1,4% ahead of January, but still way

short of January 1984, when more than

23 000 units were sold.

National Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Naainsa) director Nico Vermeulen says sales picked up after a slow start to

the month. He expects this trend to continue

with the tax cuts announced in the minibudget and the resulting boost to disposable

incomes.

Total vehicle sales in January were also up

— by 10,6% on December and by 2,7% on

January 1986. The heavy commercial sector

registered a 24,1% improvement over the

same period, but light commercial sales fell

1,9% to 5 898.

The real winner in the car market was

Volkswagen, whose sales increased by 57,7%

to 2 977 units. The month provided double

cause for celebration for VW with the GolfJetta range nudging the Toyota Corolla from

its best seller slot by all of five units. The

next three places were taken by the Cressida,

the BMW 3 scries and the Mazda 323.

Mercedes-Benz sales fell 38,5%, but car

marketing director Peter Cleary says this

was due to dealers running out ofstocks. "At

the beginning of January they had only two

weeks' supply and more cars arrived only in

the last few days of the month because of our

Christmas shutdown."

BMW, one of the two companies to register an improvement last year, increased January sales over the previous month by 93,3%

to 1 251 units, increasing its market share to

8,9%. Marketing manager John Jessop says

2 000 orders are outstanding for the 3 series

and the 5s are fully spoken for until April or

May.

/9274

CSO: 3400/214 63
SOUTH AFRICA

WAYS TO EXPAND, MODERNIZE FIGHTER, ATTACK FORCES ADDRESSED

Pretoria ARMED FORCES in English Feb 87 pp 24-29

[Article by Helmoed-Romer Heitman]

[Text]

.The development and fielding of

Cheetah has been a magnificent elfort by

Armscor and the SAAF. Nevertheless, all

it has actually done is to buy us a little

more time in which to address the

critical question of how to expand and

modernise our fighter and attack forces.

The Cheetah programme per se has

done no more than upgrade the fighter

fleet for the medium term. It has not addressed the inadequate number of

fighter and attack aircraft and it has not

addressed the long term requirement for

new technology aircraft. These twin

questions must retain the highest priority in our defence procurement planning

if the SAAF is to be able to create the

necessary preconditions for effective Army operations in any but a truly lowintensity environment.

Interim Programmes

Given the arms embargo, it is highly

unlikely that we will be able to obtain

"post-Mirage" generation combat aircraft from overseas. We Will therefore

have to look towards satisfying the

SAAF's requirement for such airciail

either internally or in co-operation with

one or more of the other "pariah states"

such as Chile and China. In either event,

such a programme will make enormous

demands on the available expertise and

funds. . . , . Given the realities of developing anew

combat aircraft — even without the

bureaucratic and "best is the enemy of

good enough" delays of most western

programmes — we are unlikely to be

able to field the new aircraft in the user

term. There are, however, several

measures open to us which will serve

both to upgrade the SAAF's present

capability and thereby bridge the gap

between our present force and the introduction of the new type, and to lay the

technical foundation for the development and manufacture of indigenous

combat aircraft.

Some possibilities which should be

receiving attention are:

1. Obtaining old Mirage Ills, Vs or 50s,

Daggers of Kfirs which we can then

rebuild to Cheetah standard, thereby

enlarging our fighter without embarrassing the original owners of these

aircraft;

2. Upgrading the Mirage F-1s, primarily

by fitting new and additional avionics

and weapons Systems;

3. Upgrading the jmpala Mk Ms in the

light attack role, and possibly rebuilding some Impala Mk Is into two-seat

light attack, fast FAC and/or EW aircraft;

4. Developing the necessary systems to

allow Impala Mk lls to be operated in

the defensive counter-air and/or antihelicopter roles under certain circumstances;

5. Developing systems and weapons to

allow the optimum utilisation of these

aircraft;

6. Limited upgrading of the small remaining Buccaneer and Canberra

fleets. Both types would also seem to

suggest themselves as ideal ELINT or

EW support aircralt. Employing them

in these and reconnaissance roles

64
would arguably make the best use ol

their characteristics— visa vis the

fighter force— while preserving these

valuable aircraft rather than exposing

them to an defences in attack or CAS

sorties.

New Aircraft

In planning our luture fighter/attack/interdiction force, we must accept

that we will not again be able to aflotda

balanced Meet of lighter, attack/inletdiction, maritime strike and light attack aircraft. This would have been extremely

difficult even without the complication of

the arms embargo. Under circumstancse

where we will have to go much or all of

the way by ourselves, sucha balanced

Meet is simply not in the realm of the

possible. The best that we can aspire to

isa two-type force comprisinga multirole fighter and a light attack aircraft

derived from the new generation trainer.

The Fighter

The upshot of this is that our next

generation fighter will have to bea multirole aircraft in the truest sense of that

word. It— or variants of the basic aircraft

..— will have to be able to conduct virtually the full spectrum ol operations, including offensive and defensive counterair operations, strategic, operational and

battlefield interdiction; photo and other

reconnaissance missions; close air support and maritime strike operations.

This paragon of aviation virtues will

thus have to take on the tasks of the

various Mnages and their updated versions, those of the Buccaneers and Canberras and also some ol the tasks ol the

Impala Mk lls in the conventional and

semi-conventional scenarios.

Fortunately it will be possible to identity some priorities among the various

missions. While our new lighter will have

to be able to handle all of them, some

can be accorded lower priority:

1. Close air support;

2. Strategic interdiction;

3. Oflensive counter air operations;

4. Maritime strike.

The first three mission types would expose the fighter to the heaviest concentration of enemy air defence assets and

would therefore involve loss rates which

our relatively small Air Force cannot accept. We should be seeking alternative

means of accomplishing them. Again,

fortunately, such alternative means are

available within our technical and financial constraints:

1. The close air support mission can be

divided up among the new light attack

aircraft, attack helicopters and the

Army's new long-range artillery. This

would essentially involve an adaptation

and expansion of the USAF JAWS concept, with the artillery — both G-5/6 and

Valkiri— addressing concentrated

targets and the attack helicopters and

light attack aircraft so to say "nibbling at

the edges" of enemy concentrations,

where his air delences would be less

dangerous, the light attack aircraft could

also take on some proportion of the battlefield/tactical interdiction task.

2. Strikes oh enemy air bases and on his

base areas, ports and installations could

toa gteat extent be handled with cruise

missiles and/or short-range ballistic

missiles. I he latter would have the advantage ol much lower vulnerability to

counter-measures. In the interim, we

should be developing stand-off weapons

for our attack aircraft which would allow

the engagement of such targets from

Outside the range of the bulk of their air

defence assets. The long-term picture

would thus see missile and stand-off

weapon attacks on such targets as the

norm, with the latter only being flown

wherea missile attack would not produce the desired result. Direct attack by

lighteis would be the rare exception.

Maritime strike can safely be accorded

low priority because we do not seek to

dominate the sea areas around us. Oper

ations requiringa truly specialised maritime aircraft will therefore be relatively

infrequent. Given that we will be develop

i'ng an all-weather aircraft partly optimised for operational interdiction missions,

our new fighter should itself give us an

adequate matitnne strike capability.

We can therefore safely optimise out

new fighter for the defence counter air.

tactical and operational interdiction and

ieconnaissance missions. While this is

still an extremely broad mission spectrum it allows a more directed approach

lo developing the aircraft. I he resultant aircraft will still-offer

good CAS capability, operations of this

nature not being that far removed from

the loquiiements ol tactical/operational

inlet diction missions. Its major weakness in the offensive counter air and

strategic inteiriiction roles will probably

lie in marginally inadequate range/payload performance — only marginally,

65
because in our theatre the operational interdiction tole will itself require excellent

range/payload performance. This matter

could be effectively addressed by means

of aerial refueling. Our new fighter

should thus offer adequate capability in

the low priority roles despite its optimisation for other missions.

Should it prove necessary, we could

later develop specialised derivatives for

the strategic interdiction, offensive counter-air and maritime strike roles. While

these will still be less than optimal for

their roles, they would offer us an efficient way to extend our air capability.

The Trainer

The Impala replacement will not have

to be taken as close to the edges of our

financial/technical capabilities envelope.

It will essentially still be an advanced

trainer cum light attack aircraft, albeit

somewhat more capable in the latter role

than its predecessor.

Phasing

While the Impala replacement require

ment for the advanced trainer and light

attack roles is not as urgent as that fora

new-technology fighter/attack type, it

could well prove advantageous to address it first. This would allow us to gain

valuable experience and expertise without running the risk of disaster inherent

ina high technology" programme. This

programme is also one which we could

address soon and bring to fruition quick

ly ._ (hereby allowing us to gain the

benefits ol dealing with the Impala successor first without unduly delaying the

development ofa new fighter which

could, in fact, begin in parallel.

The Impala Successor

In developing an Impala successor, we

should ideally look towardsa project

which will allow us to build on the experience of upgrading the Mirages and

Impalas. This will both reduce the risks

inherent in the project and compress its

time frame. Essentially, we should there

fore be looking towards what amounts to a Super Impala" programme, expanding

our existing technology and blending it

with some new technology, rather than

striking out fully into new areas at this

early stage.

An approach that immediately sugguests itself is that followed in the

development of the Skyfox out of the

T-33. This would allow us to stretch the

existing Impala technology intoa potent

light attack aircraft something akin tba

"mini A-10". Specific advantages which

such an aircraft would offer over the present Impala Mk II, include:

1. Enhanced range/payload performance — twin engines and additional fuel in a portion of the lormet engine bay and

air intake duels;

2. Enhanced semi-prepared/rough field

performance- the A-10 type layout

greatly reduces the danger of foreign

object ingest ion by the engines and

the additional power facilitates operation from shorter/rougher runways

witha useful load;

3. Twin engine safety, further enhanced ,; by the A-10 type of layout which

reduces the danger ol battle damage

to an engine by means of masking

'.' and gteatiy reduces the likelihood of

both engines being damaged simultaneously.

Operation Irom semi-prepared or

rough fields could be further enhanced

by adopting an air intake system similar

in concept to that of the Mig-29. This

allows the main intakes to be blanked off

while taxiing and during the take-off run,

air being drawn in through supplementary intakes on the top surface of the

wing roots, thereby greatly reducing the

danger of foreign object damage. In the

case ofa "mini A-10" type of "SuperImpala", the same effect could be achieved by means of a cowling which swivels

up from under the engine pod to blank

off air flow from below or directly ahead — something like half of a thrust

feverser mounted below the front of the

engine pod. A "Super-lmpala" developed along

these Tines would require no radically

new technology and could be developed

on the basis ofa scaled-up Impala. It

could make use of-an improved version

of the same basic engine and, probably,

much the same avionics, navigation and

weapons delivery systems which would

already have been developed in the

course of upgrading the Impala Mk Us. It

would therefore representa low-risk first

step in developing indigenous combat

aircraft— and, indeed, their engines—

while providing the SAAF witha useful

light attack aircraft cum advanced

trainer. An EW cum ail-weather/night attack version of the two-seater would

again seem to be an interesting option,

particularly given the additional internal

volume, electrical power generation

capability and endurance as compared to

the original Impala

66
The Mirage/Cheetah Successor

Any fighter development programme

will absorb sucha vast proportion of our

limited funds that we can under no circumstances afford to develop the wrong

aircraft.

One implication of this is that we will

have to make every effort to develop an

aircraft that will be relatively independent of major air bases. This is essential

in the light of present trends in an offensive counter air operations — particularly wilh regard to stand-off weapons and

medium-range ballistic missiles, and the

various direct-action and delayed-action

munitions and (nines which they can

deliver. Both persistant and nonpersistant chemical warheads are also a

danger here. We cannot afford to follow

the major air forces down the road by

pouring vast amount of scarce funds into

the development of technological immobilised in the opening hours of a conflict by strikes on their bases.

The Basic Options

There are therefore' only three basic

directions open to us: Vertical take-off

and landing (VTOL or V/STOL), short

take-off and vertical landing (STOVL)and

short take-off and landing (STOL).

Vertical Take-Off and Landing

The full VTOL or V/STOL option is not

really open to us as our requirement

demands both mildly supersonic and excellent range/payload performance.

There is at present no aircraft in service

which combines meeting those requirements with VTOL or V/STOL. characteristics and there is precious little work being done in this area. Any attempt to

follow this route would therefore require

us to break almost totally new ground—

something which neither our base of expertise nor our funding will allow us to

consider seriously.

Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing

The obvious STOVL example to follow

would be the still-born AV-16 which

would have grown intoa truly remarkable

combat aircraft had it not been supplanted by the less ambitious AV-8B. STOVL

would, on the other hand, again be an extremely difficult and expensive road to

follow— indeed, it would in many

aspects still bea case of breaking trail,

as there is not much experience in this

area anywhere. Also, nothing less than

an AV-16 equivalent would meet the

case, given the air combat requirement

inherent in our requirement.

The successes of Harriers and Sea

Harriers against Argentine A-4s, Mirages

and Daggers must not be allowed to mislead us in this regard — the Argentine

aircraft were laden with bombs and

operating at the extreme edge of their

payload-range envelopes,. Under more

normal circumstances, the situation

would certainly have been rather different: While the Harrier and the Sea Harrier would undoubtedly prove difficult to

shoot down, it is unlikely that they would

enjoy similar successes against fighters

employed as fighters. The basic

Harrier/AV-8 standard will therefore not

suffice to meet our needs in this regard.

This aircraft also continues to suffer

froma serious range/payload problem

when evaluated against the multi-role requirement which our new fighter must

meet and the distance of this region.

An attempt to developa STOVL multirole fighter for the SAAF is thus also

something that is unlikely to producea

useful result within the pertaining time

and funding constraints.

Short Take-Off and Landing—

STOL

Fortunately we do not really have to go

down the VTOL or even the STOVL road.

Our generally flat terrain and favourable

climate, and the very low force:space

ratios which will pertain in any conventional or semi-conventional clash, all

combine to make the STOL alternative

both attractive and adequately survivable. STOL is also an area where there is

alreadya considerable body of design,

development and operational expertise

and experience.

Forward Operation

Our future multi-role fighter must

therefore be designed with an eye to forward operations from small civilian airfields and airstrips, from suitably prepared stretches of road and, when necessary, from semi-prepared rough strips

with only minimal ground support equipment and facilities.

The way ahead in this approach has

been amply signposted by, among

others, the road and rough field operations of Swedish fighter and attack/interdiction squadrons flying Drakens and

Viggens; the road operations of Swiss

fighter squadrons flying Hunters, F-5s

and Mirage IIISs; USAFE A-10 operations

67
from forward helicopter bases (grass

fields) and stretches of freeway; RAF

Germany's occasional freeway operations with Jaguars and the Soviet dirt

field operations with Mig-23s and now

also with the very impressive Mig-29s.

The types of aircraft involved in these

operations have demonstrated thata

multi-role fighter with both respectable

air combat and attack/interdiction capability can be operated within such parameters.

Apart from the take-off and landing

performance and ground handling requirements which arise from this, the

design will also have to make provision

for simple support, servicing, maintenance and repair. Specific aspects

would include self-starting, on board

power for pre-sortie preparation and for

maintenance, the maximum use of line

replacable units in the aircraft's systems,

extensive self-test and "self-repairing"

capability, and for ready interchangeability of some airframe and engine components within an aircraft and between

aircraft.

Two good examples of what can be

achieved in the latter two areas are the

A-10 and the F-15. The A-10's engines,

main undercarriage components,

ailerons, flaps, vertical and horizontal tail

surfaces, elevators and rudders can all

be "flip-flopped" or fitted to either side of

any A-10, thereby greatly reducing the

demands made on parts storage and

supply during operations. The F-15's

engines, in turn, consist ofa number of

interchangeable sections, allowing only

that section of an engine which is actually giving trouble, to be replaced and

flown or trucked back for major maintenance.

Flight Performance

Without going into any technical

detail, it is possible to forma basic concept of what is needed. Certainly Mach 2 + or even sustained highly supersonic

performance should not be an essential

requirement. This would only serve to

complicate the design and the development of the aircraft and increase its cost

and complexity, without any commensurate practical benefit. The aircraft will,

however, need to be moderately supersonic if it is to cope with its counter-air

tasks and operate in the face of modern

ground-based air defence systems.

The primary flight performance requirements would essentially be excellent

agility, acceleration and handling both at

low level in the attack role and at both

low and high altitudes in the counter-air

role; and outstanding Hi-Lo-Lo-Hi and LoLo-Lo range with a useful air-to-ground

payload.

Range and endurance will, in fact, be

problem areas in the development of this

aircraft despite the flexibility of deployment which its STOL capability will grant

it. Firstly, it will never be as simple asa

COIN aircraft or even the proposed

"Super-lmpala", and will therefore not bo

able to operate quite as far forward as

routinely as such aircraft. Secondly, the

basic aircraft must also allow for the

operational interdiction and offensive

counter-air roles which will demand considerable range/payload performance off

short runways. The fact that such operations will be flown Lo-Lo-Lo in many, and

certainly Hi-Lo-Lo-Hi in most cases will

make further demands on the fuel

capacity.

Internal Weapons Bay

An internal weapons bay such as that

of the Buccaneer, could well merit consideration — offering an enhanced tradeoff between speed (internal weapons carriage), which should allow fighters to be

outrun at low levels, and range (fuel in

the weapons bay), ora combination (internal weapons carriage and external

drop tanks). The speed advantages of

such an arrangement have been amply

demonstrated by the Buccaneer, not

least in the course of various Red Flag

exercises and in Germany. That an internal weapons bay of useful dimensions is

possible ina fighter-sized aircraft has, in

turn, been demonstrated by the Q-5/A-5,

an 11,5 tonne aircraft capable of delivering four internally carried 250 kg bombs

overa Hi-Lo-Hi radius of 644 km with two

underwing tanks— despite being

powered by relatively thirsty engines.

Two Man Crew

Given the demands of low-level operations and the modern EW environment,

we should seriously consider the twoman option. Single-seat aircraft seem

likely to impose insupportable demands

on their pilots in the not very distant

future, despite the advances in avionics.

If anything, the continuing advances in

avionics and assorted mission electronics seem likely to increase the load on

the pilot by making aircraft more capable

ina greater variety of roles and within an

ever-widening performance envelope in

each role. A further advantage of

a two man crew

in our case would be that simple electro68
nies would achieve the same or better results than state of the art electronics in a

single-seat aircraft— the development

of the avionics/electronics package for

the new aircraft would thus not have to

push the edges of our research and development and our manufacturing capabilities in this field too far into the high

cost/high risk area.

All-Weather Operation

Despite our favourable climate, we

should look to providingä measure of allweather cum night attack capability in

the new aircraft. This wouid grant usa

small additional edge"'to set against the

enemy's greater numbers and, probably,

greater sophistication in some systems.

This requirement would also tend to

argue fora two man crew, at least for

those of the new aircraft acquired for the

attack, reconnaissance and maritime

strike roles, assuming that wo will

develop distinct variants o(a basic aircraft, rather than one fully multi-role aircraft.

Twin Engines

The demands made on the new aircraft by the requirement to fly long-range

all-weather missions witha heavy payload off short, semi-prepared strips,

seems to argue fora twin-engined aircraft. A twin-engined layout would also

allow the necessary power to be delivered by two relatively low-powered engines

which would be less costly and risky to

develop arid probably also more suited to

operation from and maintenance on

rough forward air fields.A possibility

which suggests itself in this regard,

would be to essentially "reverse

engineer" the basic SNECMA Atar

09K-50 engine of the Mirage IIID and F-1,

on which we have already gained considerable operating and maintenance experience. Initially, the new engine might

well be designed to deliver slightly less

power than the original, thereby allowing ä safety margin in deference to bur lack

of experience in engine design and

manufacture. Given twin engines, the

new aircraft should still have adequate

thrust.A later development of this

engine could then be retrofitted to take

advantage of the additional power and

would also be eminently suitable for

retrofitting to the then remaining aircraft

in the Mirage fleet.

Supporting the New Aircraft

If we are to successfully operate our

new fighters and light attack aircraft to

the best advantage, we will also have to

ensure that the command and control

system can actually make effective and

efficient use of its inherent flexibility of

deployment— and that the logistic and

technical support systems can sustain

such operations.

The emphasis on the command and

control side will lie on good communications between the tasking headquarters,

the various widely dispersed forward air

fields and the forward control system.

This would not be beyond the limits of

our technical resources, but will probably require some streamlining of our

methods. An airborne command facility

could bea great help here, an airborne

surveillance radar system even more so.

The logistic support of such operations will require an expansion of the

TAU concept to provide for the speedy

preparation of forward air fields— in

some cases including the preparation of

taxiways, parking areas and even runways; the flexible deployment and redeployment of technical support and of

supply assets overa relatively thin,

crowded and probably insecure road net;

and the actual support of combat operations from these widely dispersed

localities.

The logistic support of such operations will require an expansion of the

TAU concept to provide for the speedy

preparation of forward air fields— in

some cases Including the preparation ol

taxiways, parking areas and even runways; the flexible deployment and redeployment of technical support and of

supply assets overa relatively thin,

crowded and probably insecure road net;

and the actual support of combat operations from these widely dispersed

localities.

The logical extension of the STOL

fighter/semi-prepared base concept will

therefore also include increased

demands on the SAAF transport and helicopter fleets, which will present the

most effective way of delivering timecritical — generally, but not necessarily,

low-bulk— items to the forwarddeployed fighters. Our future STOL

fighter and light attack aircraft will therefore generate a requirement for additional transport helicopters and for a Dakota

replacement. The combination will, however, allow us to generate formidable air

power when and where needed on the

battlefield, and to do so with relative immunity to enemy offensive counter-air

operations.

69
Fortunately a basis of experience

already exists as a result of forward based helicopter operations in support of

the Army in counter-insurgency operations and pre-emptive strikes. The secret

will lie in drawing on that experience and

applying it to the support of fast jets.

Once we have done that, a basic two-type

fleet such as has been outlined here

should be able to effectively and efficiently meet our requirements.

/9274

CSOj 3400/211

70
SOUTH AFRICA

BLACK URBANIZATION, NEED FOR 'INWARD INDUSTRIALIZATION'

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 20 Feb 87 pp 33-34

[Text] Few countries have

had as many crackpot

economic theories

visited upon them, in

the name of suspect

political or social

ends, as we have- had

here. For instance, decentralisation was

supposed to reverse the flood of blacks to the

cities by the late Seventies. It didn't. Import

substitution was supposed to make us more

strategically self-sufficient. It did, partially,

but at a cost that makes the candle hardly

worth the effort.

The latest in this run of catchphrase economic panaceas is "inward industrialisation." Precisely what it means depends largely on who is explaining it. To us it seems

rather like old wine in new bottles: there

could be some limited good about it but

beware the packaging.

We are indebted to the Old Mutual's Economic Monitor for a definition of it: "Inward

industrialisation is domestically generated

growth based upon supplying basic consumer

products to the rapidly urbanising black population, with the increasing labour force

coming from the rural areas simultaneously

finding employment in these industries."

The Monitor comments very sensibly that

this is not so much a policy as an economic

process which was a major growth generator

for centuries in Europe. It dubs Reserve

Bank Deputy Governor Jan Lombard as its

father here. Jan has a habit of attracting

controversy.

Essentially, the reasoning of its protagonists is that the capital boycott and trade

sanctions will inhibit traditional export-led

growth while the population continues to

grow — and is likely to make even greater

demands on increasingly limited resources.

Therefore, other means must be found of

making the most of what we have.

The logic to that is

incontestable. SA's

black numbers are not

merely growing, they

are urbanising (see

graph). This country's

urbanised population

will jump from its current 10m to 30m by

the year 2000 — and

21m will be black.

The current 12m total

workforce is expected

to increase to 18m by

then — and Small

Business Development Corporation

(SBDC) MD Ben

Vosloo estimates that

even a 3,2% annual

growth rate (hardly

likely) could accommodate only some 10m

people in the modern sector. This would

leave 8m (or more) either unemployed or on

the streets looking for work.

As most reasonable people know, the

answer lies in deregulation, privatisation and

small business development — internationally, the recipe for success. The small business and informal sectors have proved worldwide to be the most efficient job creators.

But only if they are left to get on with it with

an absolute minimum of government interference.

If that's the essence of inward industrialisation, it deserves widespread support.

Government has fortunately shown some

signs that it recognises this, after decades of

interventionism and effective socialism.

Apart from the reality of urbanisation, virtual economic stagnation over the past few

years has also served to concentrate some

influential minds.

Acceptance was signalled at the November 7 1986 "summit" between businessmen

71
e

oo

O

9

• r» CO en

Q

01 0) en 0)

O

i- «• r» t"

Need to create jobs

Demand and supply of skilled and

ooo unskMed manpower

15-00Oi:-vS£"-:-KTO

10 000:

:i Unemployment

5 OOOH

1970 1980 1990 2000

and government. Out of it came the Economic Advisory Council's (EAC's) proposals on

long-term economic strategy. For, significantly, the EAC accorded "increased jobcreating growth" the highest priority.

Acceptance is one thing— reality another. Although the Group Areas Act has

been put on the back-burner for the election,

it remains one of the major legal hurdles to

true economic and political freedom. And,

apart from Group Areas, thousands of other

laws, by-laws, ordinances and regulations—

accumulated over the past 40 years need

to be scrutinised for adaptation or rejection.

Not only central government legislation, but

also municipal zoning, licensing and registration ordinances restrict, prevent or hinder

economic growth and development.

Vested interests in bureaucracy, in the

private sector and in politics will probably

hinder this process through careful and

powerful special

pleadings.

Deregulation would

provide the initial

opening for small

business and informal-sector developments to take off in

black urban areas,

leading to an increase

in production of basic

consumer goods.

Backyard service industries, free trade

areas and sharply reduced First World

standards would all

form part of the new

economic scenario.

Fuelling this development would be an expected sharp rise in black spending power

over the next 13 years (see graph).

Mercabank's May 1985, economic Focusestimated private consumer spending to

grow from 1980's R31 billion to R75 billion

-at constant 1980 prices— by 2000. Of the

latter some R28.5 billion (40%) would be

spent by blacks, while black spending power

for food could be as high as 60%. For liquor,

and clothing and footwear' the respective

percentages could be 55% and 50%.

Another spark for grassroots economic

growth is the massive need for low-cost housing. Current estimates point to a backlog of

550 000 housing units, and the recent launch

of the SA Housing Trust has already made

some R1,2 billion available for black housing

in the short to medium term.

In housing, low skills levels will be no real

brake to job creation and economic growth.

Meanwhile, legalising the informal sector

will lower existing barriers to entry into the

economy and thereby provide the initial

thrust for increasing sophistication and practical, further development of skills.

Other benefits would be reduced cost

structures, increased competition and lower

prices;a proliferation of smaller labour-intensive concerns; low-import, non-inflation72
ary demand for local goods and materials;

and the fact that all this growth would be less

dependent on international business cycles

and less vulnerable to sanctions.

Playinga central role in the new initiative

is the Competition Board (CB), which has

been briefed to collate various deregulatory

initiatives under the aegis of Danie Steyn's

new Economic Affairs and Technology Ministry. While acting in a purely advisory capacity, the CB is not standing pat.

"We were co-instrumental in the recent

promulgation of new, streamlined health

regulations affecting the food industry, while

we also recommended on deregulated taxi

licensing," says CB member Evert van Eeden. "We are now looking into trade licensing and shop hours ordinances, while the

creation of free trade zones in certain industrial parks is also receiving top priority."

Specific restrictions on black traders in

black urban and rural areas are being investigated, with the aim of creating equality

before the law for black businessmen. Hundreds of local government by-laws and regulations are also being scrutinised to create a

more streamlined system.

"These are highly complex and

time-consuming investigations,"

comments Van Eeden.

The CB has the option of recommending action in terms of the Temporary Removal of Restrictions on

Economic Activities Act (TRREA),

which empowers the State President

to abrogate certain laws or regulations for a maximum period of three

years, should these prove to be inimical to job creation or economic

growth.

And, apart from internal investigations by the SBDC, the Free Market Foundation (FMF) and other

deregulation lobbies, most State departments have also been instructed

by government to look into the deregulation and streamlining of often

antiquated legislation. The newlycreated advisory :Small Business

Council has meanwhile also started

its own investigations, using expert

regional committees in each of SA's

nine development regions. Its brief: to look

into the necessity of relaxing restrictive regulations hampering small business development.

But there is another essential ingredient.

Vosloo comments: "Greater financing support is needed. The creation of an effective

venture capital market, utilising institutional

savings for small business development, is

essential. We might also issue our first Small

Business Bonds on the capital market by the

middle of the year."

Since its inception in 1981, the SBDC has

only received some R125m in State aid—

while countries like Japan, Taiwan, the US,

the UK, West Germany, France and most

other Western or developed countries spend

billions in support of their small business

sectors. "We need at least R100m-R200ma

year," is Vosloo's view.

Nevertheless, the SBDC expects to have

assisted about7 000 borrowers by the end of

the year, witha total outlay of R356m, while

some 130 000 employment opportunities will

have been created or saved over that period.

Other conditions will also have to be met

to make inward industrialisationa success.

We have already dwelt on the need to remove

the Group Areas Act. Equally important isa

return to normality in the townships and the

rapid reduction of inflationary pressures so

that there is an improved incentive to save

and invest.

However, it is also important to realise the

limitations of inward industrialisation. The

measures outlined here need to be taken. But

they will not substitute for the robust thrust

needed from export-led growth and improved international competitiveness.

Nor, even if the process is moved ahead

swiftly, will it have much impact on imports.

Even then most of our imports will be in the

form of capital equipment for the mines and

industry and for high technologies and advanced bio-technologies.

But blacks need to be drawn into the

process of wealth creation and the future

shortage of jobs is likely to be so large that

everything must be done to reduce it. A danger with catchphrase economic policymaking, too, is that heresies can easily be

committed in its name: there are those prepared to argue that to be effective

inward industrialisation must include tariff protection and subsidisation. Nothing could be further from

the truth. So it might be wise to talk

about deregulation when deregulation is meant.

Perhaps the most encouraging

thing about inward industrialisation,

however, is that if it be accepted as

government policy, there is no purpose in covert implementation of influx control through squatter laws.

For that would simply interfere— as

does the Group Areas Act— with

what government was setting out to

achieve.

Finally, it must be said that despite the pressure groups and the

special powers the president has to

73
deregulate, very little has yet happened to suggest that inward industrialisation has been accepted seriously by government. Pretoria's

spirit may be willing, but clearly its

flesh is weak.

More black muscle

Private consumption pattern, 1980 and 2 000

Tobacco

[,:-\| 1980 — R31 000 mJlllöri

|2O00 — R76 000 million

Shnr» of blacki

TranspöH and

communication

4 000

10 000 14 000 | 18 000

8 000 12 000 16 000

Source: Mercabantt \/

/9274

CSO: 3400/226

74
SOUTH AFRICA

SANLAMj CONSUMERS* EXTRA PURCHASING POWER MAY BOOST GDP

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 23 Feb 87 p 3

[Article by Chris Cairncross]

[Text] SANLAM remains cautiously optimistic the small boost for consumers in the mini-budget will go

some way towards easing the

economy's uphill struggle.

Sluggishness that still exists is

tied to the poor financial position of

the man-in-the-street: his spending

ability has been curtailed and his

tax burden has reached proportions

where he is not only reluctant to

spend, but also incapable of spending more, says Sanlam chief economist Johann Louw.

He believes the latest measures

announced in the Part Appropriation Bill should go a long way to

improving consumer confidence

and business sentiment.

"We expect the extra purchasing

power placed in the hands of the

general public will give private

consumer spending a firm push."

Louw says this could lead to GDP

growing by 3% this year, compared

with the meagre 1% recorded in

1986.

. In keeping with economic thinking generally, Louw believes the

inflation rate will tail off to about

17% over the year.

This will only happen if the external value of the rand maintains its

present firmer trend, and if increased domestic spending does not

put significant pressure on consumer prices.

As the economy moves into a

stronger recovery phase trend, Importe are expected to increase appreciably over the year.

Export performance, on the other hand, is expected to be further

disrupted by sanctions.

The combined picture suggests

the balance of payments, which recorded a surplus of about R7bn in

1986, will come under pressure —

exacerbating economic growth.

Looking ahead to May's main

Budget, Louw reckons it is unlikely

government will budget for less

than a 15,57c increase in expenditure for the 1987/8 year.

This compares with the 22%

jump recorded for the 1986/7 year,

announced by Finance Minister

Barend du Plessis in the Additional

Appropriation Bill tabled in Parliament last week.

If it is accepted that government

wants to limit the deficit before

borrowing to about 4% of GDP, the

surplus on the current account

could be about R6,6bn.

/9274

CSOs 3400/217

75
SOUTH AFRICA

ECONOMIST PREDICTS DECREASING PRICE SPIRAL HOPE FOR CONSUMERS

Inflation Rate To Stay Low

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 22 Feb 87 p 8

[Article by Sheryl Raine]

[Text]

PUNCH-DRUNK consumers

who are suffering from a spate

of price increases can take comfort in the predictions of one

leading economist that inflation

is likely to slow down in the

short term and. give them a

small but welcome breather.

Dr Azar Jammine, chief economist of Econometrix, believes that

for purely statistical reasons the

rate of price increases this year is

likely to fall a little, mostly because

of sharp price increases experienced this time last year.

"There are several indications as to

why the inflation rate could stay relatively low in the short term," he said.

"Wages have been lagging behind inflation for more than a year and this

must eventually impact on the inflation

rate.

"The money supply has been lagging and growing at a relatively slow

rate over the last year.

"The rand is at a higher level than it

was a year ago for the first time in

three years."

These factors should help keep the

inflation rate relatively low this year'

but this did not mean it would stay

low next year or the year after. r

However, the present consistency of

the rand meant that products dependent on imported components — cars

and household appliances for example

—. were unlikely to show the same dramatic price leaps as they did last year.

"I have long blamed the concentration of local industry for the rate of

inflation," said Dr Jammine.

"In 1980 we had a dramatic inflow of

funds into the country which could not

be reinvested abroad. Large companies

put it into taking over smaller companies.

"There was a massive build-up of

power in a handful of corporations and

institutions.

, "Fixed prices rather than market

forces are now determining the price of

goods. When demand is high, suppliers

increase prices but they never bring

prices down when demand drops.

"In fact, when demand drops suppliers push up the price again to maintain

revenue. There is no danger of loss of

market share because they own most of

the market anyway.

"When you have the supplier fixing

the price because of his monpolistic po

sition, he can please himself. All that is

determined for him Is level of output

and amount consumed.

"This has been the; trend over the last

six to seven years and it is now having

an impact.

"The private sector has kept blaming

the Government, and justifiably in

many respects, for inflationary pricefixing with its various control boards.

Prices have been fixed in relation to

production costs rather than demand.

"Now private enterprise is also fixing

76
v prices and the same inflationary de-'

: velopment is taking place, only on a

.bigger scale.

' "In the longer term I believe the .in-.

j, flation picture is gloomy. Longer-term

v worries include:

I•• A concentration of power in a few".

; large corporations which push up fixed

"prices.

•Trade-union pressure for higher wa-;

ges intermeshed with political action on

behalf of outlawed political groups to

disrupt the economy.

• Attempts to close the wage gap artificially without increasing productivity

among lower-income groups.

• The most important factor is that the

Government has been increasing its

' role in the economy and is likely to continue doing so.

"In the longer term, to pay for increased expenditure, the Government

will have\to consider various methods.

"It could raise taxes which ultimately depresses economic activity, borrow

money from institutions which would

ultimately mean raising taxes to pay

the interest; privatise various sectors

but this entails confronting some fudamental problems and is. going very

slowly, print money, which is tremendously inflationary.

"The Government has a dilemma on

its hands. Either it can spend its way

out of political unrest now and risk

higher inflation, or slow the economy

for the next year or two, ease up on

providing social infrastructure, pay the

political price and hope overall that

this has a favourable effect on inflation.

"I believe it could do something by

dramatically changing the tax struc-

: hire to ease the dilemma. Whether the

Margo Commission's recommendations

will be radical enough to achieve this,

remains to be seen."

Consumers'Hit Hard*by Price Increases

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR in English 22 Feb 87 p 8

[Text] THE year is not yet two months old but consumers

have already been hit hard by a phalanx of price increases.

This week alone brought a nine to 10,5-percent increase in the beer price arid news that postal tariffs

will rise from 14c to 16c for ordinary mail on April 1.

Other prices which have gone up so far this year include:

•Milk by more than 4c a litre owing to cost increases

in the distributive trade.

•Firestone tyres with an average increase of eight

percent (following increases by other tyre manufacturers last August).

•Industrial sugar up 15 percent while the retail price

of sugar on the Reef rose by about 14 percent.

According to major retailers including Pick 'n Pay

and Checkers the prices of as many as 10 000 consumer items are expected to jump by June. These include:

• Meat 15 percent,

•Wine 17 percent.

• Mineral drinks and squashes

10 percent.

• Pasta eight to 10 percent.

•Canned fruit and vegetables

five percent.

• Peanut butter at least 20 percent.

•Biscuits eight percent.

• Milk powder and associated

products 10 percent.

• Detergents 12,5 percent including soap powder and dishwashing liquid.

77
19211*

CSO> 3400/216

• Paperware 10 percent. •Toiletries eight percent. •Chocolate, sweets 20 percent. • Gouda cheese 10 percent.

The Government has shelved

major tariff increases until

after the white election.

But SA Transport Services

tariffs are expected to go up in

June and telephone and other

posts and telecommunications

services at the end of May.

The price of hotel accommodation is also expected to rise

this year according to the Federated Hotel, Liquor and Catering Association (Fedhasa).

New car prices will continue

to rise depending on the various

cost pressures exerted on manufacturers, but the increases are

not expected to be quite as high

as they have been in recent

years.

Some models have even

dropped marginally in price—

like the Golf CSL which dropped

by R30 and the 1600 versions of

the Ford Courier and MazdaB

Series bakkies which came

down by R120.

VW is hoping to keep its increase to between 10 and 12 percent this year, depending on the

D-mark/rand exchange rate.,

Already VW has increased its

prices by between two and 5,5

percent.

Mercedes-Benz has already

increased prices by four percent

on Honda and six percent on

Mercedes and it anticipatesa

total year-on-year rise of about

18 to 20 percent.

BMW expects to raise its

prices by five percent on March 1 with two further price rises of

four percent in June and September. A further quarterly rise on

December1 will probably bring

the year-on-year price incease

to about 18 to 20)percent.

Nissan increased its prices on

New Year's Day by three percent. Toyota increased its prices

on certain models by between

two and 2,5 percent in the first

week of February.

GM raised its prices by about

2,5 percent but the GM diesels

went up by four percent.

Similar increases were reflected in Samcor's diesels with

other models increasing by

about two to 2,5 percent.

78
SOUTH AFRICA

STATISTICS REVEAL SOUTH AFRICANS SAVING MORE

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 23 Feb 87 p 2

[Text] SOUTH Africans are saving more than

they did last year but nowhere near

enough to counter the erosion of an 18%

inflation rate.

Nedfin statistics show that at the end

of December South Africans held

R6,38bn in savings accounts with banks,

almost 4% more than a year ago.

This suggests either they are dipping

into their capital to make ends meet or

are diverting their savings to alternative investments.

In the December quarter savings with

banks grew by R186,5m, or 3% over the

previous quarter.

"This increase against an inflation

rate of 18% supports the view that South

Africans are seriously discouraged from

saving when offered negative interest

rates/' said Nedfin MD Ron Rundle.

"Our figures show that although the

nation's savings ratio has declined

steadily over the years, people are disinclined to 'save' when they are not offered

'real' returns." Predictably, the selected

liabilities of banks declined slightly during the December quarter — for Christmas spending — from R47,65bn to

R47,35bn.

However, on a year's basis this represents an increase of 2,2%.

The Standard group holds the largest

share of the selected liabilities market

(27,3%). This is 1,4% higher than the

previous quarter. The Barclays group is

not far behind with 26,8%. The Bankorp

group holds 17,4% (16,8% previous quarter), Nedbank 15% (16%) and Volkskas

13,5% (14,6%).

/9274

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79
SOUTH AFRICA

MOSSEL BAY OFFSHORE GAS PROJECT TO BOOST EAST CAPE ECONOMY

Employment Opportunities for Thousands

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 20 Feb 87 pp 1, 2

[Article by Mick Collins and Chris Caimcross]

[Text]

IN the most important

industrial development in the Cape's history, Economic Affairs Minister Danie

Steyn yesterday set

the seal on the R4,2bn

Mossel Bay offshore

gas project.

Opening Soekor's

new headquarters in

Bellville, Steyn said

Cabinet approval had

also been given for the

construction of a

second offshore platform at a later stage,

which will boost the capital cost of the

entire project by Rl,3bn to R5,5bn in 1986

money terms.

Economists and industrialists have

welcomed government's decision saying

the news has injected new life into SA's

staggering economy and brought hope to

the economically ravaged Eastern Cape.

The go-ahead for the project is the

result of more than 20 years of land and

sea prospecting.

Industrialists said yesterday employment opportunities for 10 000 workers

would be created as construction neared

its peak. There was also a possibility of a

further 10 000 jobs being created through

satellite industries.

Steyn said the capital injection of

about R4bn over four years would initially come from the Central Energy Fund

(CEF). "Participation of the private sector is not yet excluded. After completion

it will be privatised under the leadership

of the CEF."

SA Federation of Civil Engineering

Contractors CE Kees Lagaay said the

project would have a dramatic effect on

the whole Eastern Cape and the profession at large.

Murray & Roberts group CE David

Brink said: "I think it's tremendous news

for the construction and engineering sectors. What is encouraging is that there is

ever? v intention to maximise local content. We are very excited about other

aspects for us which include tugs and

helicopters. This is a boost for M&R."

Referring to M&R shares, which

jumped to 940c on the JSE yesterday,

Brink said the share had moved up about

50% in two months.

"But after our poor results last year it

still has a long way to go to get back to

previous levels."

Steyn said the gas field had estimated

reserves likely to guarantee the project

an operating lifespan of at least 29 years.

He said: "Production is scheduled to

commence in 1991. Detailed engineering

design of the offshore platform is to start

in April with the fabrication of components likely to commence later in the»

year, and actual construction in 1988.

"On-shore managing and engineering

contractors will be appointed during the

year to allow procurement and fabrication of components for the refinery to

also start in 1988."

However, Steyn sounded a warning

saying approval did not imply everything would now happen overnight and

that thousands of job opportunities would

immediately be available in Mossel Bay.

He said: Most of the initial developments will take place in other centres

like Port Elizabeth. It was decided to

plan the project in various phases to

80
ensure that untenable high peaks in the

engineering and construction industry

are not created."

A mood of optimism prevailed at a

"Mossel Bay" meeting of about 140 industrial and civic leaders in PE yesterday.

Delegates were given copies of a report setting out the reasons why the city

was most suitable for large-scale fabrication of the rig.

A spokesman said: "The PE region is

well placed to provide the total requirements for fabrication, construction needs

and servicing for the Agulhas Bank project." He said the area was depressed

and operating at a low level of capacity

utilisation with high unemployment.

He said: "The gas project represents a

realistic opportunity for private enterprise and the authorities to promote industrial expansion and an improvement

in the level of economic activity."

Local Residents Concerned

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 23 Feb 87 p 13

[Text]

MOSSEL BAY — Development

of an oil-from-gas plant 15 km

from here has prompted serious concern of a "gold rush" of

fortune seekers before enough

jobs are available.

The Government has said

production should start in 1991

but Mossel Bay. residents are

not over-optimistic about an

expected boom.

A local farmer, Who asked

not to be named, believed the

announcement was a pre-election ploy by the Government.

"Everybody is excited but

the Government has told the

people of Mossel Bay precisely

nothing," he said.

Local . farmers would not

benefit because their produce

was already being taken by

canning companies and fruit

was trucked in from the Transvaal.

"Our abattoir has been

closed so even the meat suppliers cannot benefit, only the

meat wholesalers and the

larger supermarkets will make

more money in the end," he

said.

Mr Charles Robertson, chairman of the Mossel Bay Chamber of Commerce, said the

town urgently needed more in-

/9274

CSO: 3400/225

formation to prepare for the

expected influx.

"When the announcement

was made in 1985 many small

businessmen arrived in the

town and made it difficult for

the locals to survive," he said.

"However, as nothing happened, most of them have left

again."

Mr Robertson was concerned

that the next phase of the

project would come 17 years

after the first, which would result in trained people leaving

the town. If the phases followed

in five-year sequences it would

be different.

He felt local builders, garage, cafe and food outlet

owners would be the main beneficiaries of the coming boom

but admitted it was still too

early to speculate.

He was concerned about the

coloured population and felt

the area should do as much as

possible to get them involved.

Miss Elsa Kuyler, spokesman for a large estate agent,

said the first announcement

had resulted in home and property owners inflating values to

unrealistic levels.

"We ourselves have been

somewhat premature in one of

our developments Which we

are finding difficult to sell",

she said.

Miss Kuyler said one contractor had requested äccom-.

modation for 500 people but the

town could not provide it. People only rented out their properties in the off-season and

used them themselves during

the holidays.

Mr John Edwards, a fishing

trawler owner, felt the project

would result in congestion in

the small harbour.

"Like in the North Sea, we

will have to nail everything

down once the harbour is full of

workers and the sleepy place

will be lost forever."

He expressed concern that

the platform would be in the

middle of the best stockfish

grounds. He said the pipeline,

with a 10 nautical mile safety

zone, would hamper the fishing

industry which employed at

least 400 Mossel Bay people.

Town clerk Mr Willem van

Heerden said at the weekend

that no details or any job specifications were known but Mr

Karel van Zyl of the Central

Energy Fund would be spelling

out labour requirements during

an information seminar in

March.

81
SOUTH AFRICA

RAND MINES SEEKING TO OPEN NEW MINING PROJECTS

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 13 Fcb 87 pp 37, 41

[Article by Andrew McNulty]

[Text]

Rand Mines has a proud heritage. For more

than a century it has been known as the

Corner House group, a name dating back to

the 1880s, when its first headquarters stood

on the corner of Fox and Sauer streets iq

Johannesburg. Profits have not been bad in

the past two years. The dividend was raised

25% in 1985 and 21 %' in the year to September 1986. But the share is among the least

favoured in the JSE mining house sector. At

R84, it offers a yield of 5,1% compared with

the sector average of 2,9%.

Management has obviously been concerned about the image. After research revealed that the public had little clear idea of

what the group actually does, considerable

time and money were invested on establishing a modern corporate identity. That has

apparently worked. But, chairman Dammy

Watt concedes, if the share is to be positively

ferated the group needs to expand by injecting some large hew mining projects.

Until such breakthroughs, the house is left

essentially dependent on its expanding coal

division; a number of old, low-grade gold

mines; mine residue retreatment operations;

base minerals, mainly chrome ore; forestry

and timber; and a currently unprofitable

property division. In 1986, no less than 50%

of attributable profits came from coal (see

table), a sector now depressed by sanctions,

oversupplied export markets and slow economic growth at home.

On the drawing board are two large, grassroots mining projects. Either could lead to a

swift change in outlook if the go-ahead is

given. The problem is that, on the limited

information available, market uncertainties

and high capital costs, most analysts are

sceptical about these ventures.

The more imminent could be the Vansa

platinum prospect. Rand Mines last year

exchanged its Winterveld Chrome Mine for

a 42% interest in Vansa Vanadium, which,

apart from developing a chrome mine near

Steelpoort in the eastern Transvaal, has

rights to platinum group metals on its Kennedy's Vale property.

Rand Mines is.completing the platinum

prospecting programme and a feasibility

study. If a mine is developed, the group will

subscribe R52,5m cash or the equivalent in

mining infrastructure for a 60% stake.

Watt says the valuation should be complete by the target date of June 1987. "I am

really hopeful that we'll be able to develop a

platinum mine," lie says. "The only thing

that could switch it off now would be if data

from the original five boreholes (drilled before Rand Mines got involved) is shown tobe

over-optimistic by the new drilling programme. As we are looking at an average of

five boreholes that seems unlikely. If there

were only one or two, the risks would be

greater."

Although the platinum prospect is not on a

large piece of ground, Watt says a mine

could be as large as Northam, the Gold

Fields of SA development. An advantage is

that it would not be as deep as Northam, so

capital and working costs would be lower.

As one analyst says, platinum may be the

group's big card — a go-ahead announcement could add perhaps R20 to Rand Mines'

share price virtually overnight. But the mine

would take four to five years to come on

stream, almost certainly after Northam, selling into a platinum market whose state is

difficult to predict. Despite expectations of

expanding demand in Europe, the entry of

82
new mines could lead to oversupply. So for

the moment platinum is largely ignored by

investors looking at Rand Mines.

The other really big project—a potentially huge new gold mine south of Johannesburg — is even more uncertain, with benefits

still further into the future. If it comes off it

would require both courage and imaginative

financing by the Barlow Rand group, which

controls Rand Mines. No official name has

yet been given the prospect, whose mining

area would be extensive, probably comprising three defunct gold mines Crown

Mines Reserve (the world's most profitable

gold mine during the Thirties). City Deep

and Robinson Deep -- but also including

substantial ground south of them.

Economic and geological evaluation work

is complicated by the great depth of the goldbearing reefs and the large scale of mining

operations that would be required. Watt says

mining would start at3 5Ü0m and extend to

some4 500 m, comparable to Western Deep

Levels or ERPM at its deepest. This would

call for costly refrigeration and ventilation

facilities from the start.

What would add to the cost, and complicate mine planning, is that the surface areas

are almost totally covered by urban development. It would be impractical to sink hightonnage vertical shafts; access could be

gained through old mine shafts on ground

owned by Rand Mines Properties (RMP).

These would have to be refurbished to gain

access through crosscuts which could extend

way south of the original mine lease area.

Given the depths and accompanying costs,

grades would have to be relatively high.

However, values encountered by the one

borehole so far completed were described as

•disappointing, adding to bearishness on the

part of mining analysts. But Watt says: "It's

early days yet. Disappointing results ofa

single borehole don't weigh all that heavily

with us. The point of intersection was slightly east of where we expected, so we are not

despondent." A second borehole is expected to intersect

reef at mid-year; even that wouldn't necessarily provide much more confidence one

way or the other, except that it could confirm

that the reef runs to considerable depth and

the area is not excessively faulted.A third

borehole will only intersect reef in another

12-18 months.

Meanwhile, Rand Mines' exploration department has the advantage of a vast bank of

information garnered from old mining records. Geological data from old workings has

been extrapolated, enablinga hypothesis to

be built up, showing likely positions of reefs

and their values.

"Geologists estimate this type of information is worth 10-15 boreholes," Watt adds.

"Even though the first borehole had disappointing results it showed the reefs were

where wc forecast. So the geological model

proved fairly accurate."

On current indications, Watt estimates

total capital costs of the mine at between

Rl,5 billion-R2 billion. He puts the probability of a decision to go ahead around 50% — perhaps not an unduly gloomy prognosis

given what's at stake. He expects the group

to formulate plans for this mine towards the

end of 1987.

Apart from these two projects, Rand

Mines is working ona number of smaller

expansions which could improve prospects in

precious metals. Another new underground

mine at the exploration stage is Barbrook,

which holds precious metals

claims in the eastern Transvaal. Rand Mines has a 50%

interest in Barbrook, with

the remainder held by Anglo

American. Access could be

gained to the almost vertical

ore body througha series of

adits. Indications are that if a mine goes ahead the development cost would be between R50m-R 100m; a decision could be imminent.

There may also be scope

for further slimes dump retreatment projects. Previous

expansions have raised income from this source from

less than R2m in 1983 to

PROFIT SPREAD

Gold, uranium ;ind platinum 24,7 27,2

Gold recovered from slime

residues 10,7 11,6

Coal 55.2 67,5

Base minerals 1,9 6,3

Forestry and timber 2,5 2,9

Property 5,4 o!l

Management and other 10,5 18,6

Attributable profit 110,9 134,2

Earnings (c) 9891 197

Rl 1,6m in 1986, accounting for 8,6% of total

attributable earnings. The only other chance

of arresting the present declining trend in

overall group gold production appears to lie

with expansions to existing mines.

The major producer is 23%-held Harmony, a high-tonnage low-grade mine,

which is expanding capacity with extensions

to the Virginia gold plant and construction of

the new No4 shaft complex; but this will

83
only help compensate for the declining recovery grade, and is unlikely to lift gold output

significantly. Blyvooruitzicht, with reserves

virtually exhausted, has no scope to expand.

Analysts hold mixed views on benefits

from expansion at ERPM. Since tying upa

funding package last year, it is opening upa

new, deep-lying section which will virtually

bea new mine. The more bullish view is that

it will presagea sharp profit turnaround and

considerably longer life;a disadvantage is

that Rand Mines only owns 19%. The same

may apply to 20%-held Durban Deep,a

formerly marginal mine that covers working

costs but not much more.

"I'm hoping that once we complete exploration of the south-western portion of Durban Deep's mining title we'll be able to

expand into that area," says Watt. "That

would extend both life and gold output."

Here, too, clarity is expected towards the end

of the year.

Flaccid conditions in coal markets have

not deterred the group from pressing ahead

witha massive capital programme, largely in

the coal division. Total proposed capex exceeds R 1,1 billion, of which R51,9m is for

this year, rising to R92m by 1990— leaving

some R788m to be spent thereafter.

Most spending will be on two Escom-tied

collieries, Khutala and Majuba. These are

not vulnerable to sanctions and oversupplied

export markets— except that sanctions

could impede growth in the SA economy—

but it will be several years before they contribute to group profits.

However,a strong balance sheet has been

built up, with cash holdings last year-end of

R266m. Short-term loans totalled R35,2m

and long-term loans R332,9m, of which

R249m was owed to Escom, which helps

finance tied power station collieries, repayable from revenues earned by the collieries

concerned.

Cash will be absorbed and borrowings

climb as spending accelerates. Watt says

that any additional loans taken will be shortterm, and temporary. "Our spending programme is well within the strength of the

balance sheet," Watt adds. "We don't anticipate any cash bind. Borrowings will peak in

about three to four years, and should start

declining about two or three years after that.

"In fact, apart from current expansions,

we feclwe've financial capacity to developa

series of new projects without straining the

balance sheet."

With exports taking some 22% of group

coal sales of 22 Mt/year, profits from coal

are expected to stagnate or decline slightly

this year.

The worst-case scenario is that they could

fall as much as 20% over the next few years,

especially if sanctions worsen. "Introduction

of sanctions by the US and other countries

will have an adverse impact on profits, necessitating rationalisation of operations and jeopardising jobs, particularly in the unskilled

categories," says Watt.

Not surprisingly, the stock market has

realised that Rand Mines in its present state

is more vulnerable than other houses to such

setbacks. With coal profits under pressure,

the rand gold price off peak and capital

expenditure set to rise, short-term prospects

for earnings growth are limited and scope for

appreciable dividend increases is not good.

Essentially, the group is perceived to have

been left behind in an exploration scramble

that gathered pace in the

mining industry in the early

Eighties. It is trying hard to

catch up. Watt says the

house will continue to pursue

new ventures aggressively,

by starting new mines or by

further acquisitions.

There is even some hope of

overseas expansion once conditions are propitious. Success with these efforts could

be crucial to the long-term

future of parent Barlow

Rand, which has designated

mining and minerals beneficiation as one of the four

pillars of its business.

/9274

CSO: 3400/221

84
SOUTH AFRICA

SMALL BUSINESS 'INDUSTRIAL HIVES' SUCCESSFULLY EMPLOY JOBLESS

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 20 Feb 87 pp 93, 94

[Text] SA's high unemployment rate has certainly

caused hardship and despair, even in the

relatively affluent PWV. But it also creates

opportunity, especially for retrenched workers with skill and some initiative.

Increasingly, they are being offered the

chance to start their own businesses in the

Small Business Development Corporation's

(SBDC) "industrial hives" — the training,

'1 entrcprcneurship and development centres

being opened around the country.

The most recent, at Pennyville, near Soweto, lias 100 small businesses, employing

325 people, operating in the old Leisurecor

factory The entrepreneurs range from steelworkers and printers to tailors and coffin

makers: - Here fledgling enterprises are given access

to expert guidance and equipment which

might otherwise be too expensive.

The SBDC claims it costs less than

R2 000 to set up a new man in business

against R30 000-plus to create a new job in

the formal manufacturing sector. It provides

the experience for running a business.

The new businesses are allocated to areas

varying in size from 12 m

!

to 100 m

2 within

the old factory, which has a total area of

more than 15 000 m

1

. Rental ranges from R5

a day for smaller areas, including water and

electricity charges. When it is fully let, the

factory will accommodate 180 operations.

The SBDC lists a number of success stories since the first hive was opened just two

years ago. For example, a coloured woman

who started a textile business four months

ago by employing two workers to produce a

range of windbreakers landed a couple of

large contracts. She has now bought three

more sewing machines to keep up with demand and employs seven extra people.

The principal problem for most emerging

businesses is marketing, and the SBDC is

beginning to provide advice and assistance in

this area. Under consideration is the establishment of display areas, flea markets outside the workshop premises and the listing of

businesses in the Contactmaker Catalogue

(Business November 28).

The SBDC has also opened a legal advice

clinic manned by retired attorneys with the

back-up of a multiracial panel of 25 attorneys and advocates, both practising and retired.

. The clinic specialises in commercial subjects and advises on legal forms of business

(such as company or closed corporation), on

contracts and delictual matters such as in-.

jury through negligence.

Small businessmen have come to the centre from all over the Witwatersrand seeking

advice.

The hive of industry concept was first

launched in Korsten, near recession-hit Port

Elizabeth. Since then five of the original 23

entrepreneurs have moved up

from their old premises, including two cäbinetmakers,

two engineering jobbers and

a blacksmith.

Experience has shown that,

on average, about 20% of the

fledgling businesses fail.

Another 30% are set up by entrepreneurs

who come in for a few weeks to handle a

specific project or contract.

The Korsten hive has been expanded to 51

units, with another 11 planned. Similar centres are operating in Bloemfontein, Maritzburg and Phoenix, Chatsworth and Athlone

in Durban. And now the SBDC has bought

two industrial buildings providing 15 395 m'

at Blackheath .industrial estate near Cape

Town. Another project has opened at Stutterheim.

/9274

CSO: 3400/226 85
SOUTH AFRICA

MAIZE FARMERS LOSE MILLIONS DUE TO DROUGHT

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 24 Feb 87 p 1

[Article by Gerald Reilly]

[Text]

MAIZE farmers

have lost up to

R540m due to the intense heat and lack

of rain in the past

three weeks, according to agricultural

authorities .

SA Agricultural

Union (SAAU)

sources estimate

that up to three million tons of maize have been destroyed

in Western Transvaal, north-western

Free State and Eastern Transvaal.

The cost of growing a hectare of

maize is estimated at between R400

and R500 by the National Maize Producers Organisation (Nampo).

Nampo's Giel van Zyl told Business

Day that in early January the crop

promised to be one of the biggest on

record.

However, the return of drought conditions in mid-January caused enormous damage, and total losses of up to

R540m were no exaggeration, he said.

Agriculture Minister Greyling

Wentzel, his deputy Gert Kotze, and

senior officials of his department yesterday visited the drought-devastated

areas of the western' sector of the

maize belt, in what opposition politicians see as an extraordinary demonstration of pre-election concern.

In the party/too, was SAAU president Kobus Jooste.

Sources said government was aware

of the growing discontent among farmers because of the apparent indifference to their worsening financial

plight.

They are unhappy, too, that government is keeping the recommendations

of the economic advisory council on

the rehabilitation of agriculture under

wraps.

The report was submitted to government more than two months ago.

Wentzel had discussions with members of the three big co-operatives, the

North-Western Co-op at Lichtenburg,

the Central Western Co-op at Klerksdorp, and the South-West Co-op at

Leeudoringstad.

/9274

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SOUTH AFRICA

FLOURISHING BLACK TAXI MARKET BOOSTS MINIBUS SALES

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 24 Feb 87 p 3

[Article by Norman Shepherd]

[Text]

TtfE flourishing black taxi

market is continuing to boost

minibus sales.

While "the predicted boom in

sales has not yet realised its full

potential, manufacturers agree

this market segment is still the fastest growing.

Sales of such vehicles rose 5,6%

to 14 478 last year after dipping'

28% the year before, says the

National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA

(Naamsa).

A Naamsa spokesman has urged

government to implement draft

laws on taxis and the privatisation

of transport to overcome uncertainty. The result, he says, would be

increased minibus sales.

'Bakkies trail close behind minibuses in sales growth. In fact, sales

of the light commercial vehicle

;UuV) sector have not fallen as

snatply as those of heavy vehicles

aria cars.

The Naamsa spokesman attributes this to people buying LCVs,

instead of second cars, for business

use.

Heavy commercial vehicles last

year had the lowest recorded sales

crash in 22 years — at 6 349 units.

Some buyers of minibuses are

taking the used-vehicle route. Used

minibus sales rose to 21587 in 1985

(the latest figure available) from

18 482 in 1984 (see graph).

But Nissan, Toyota and Samcor

expect sales of new minibuses to

grow about 5% this year.

While the eight-to-16-seäter minibus market is covered, there is a

gap in the 16-to-30-seater midibus

segment.

Mercedes-Benz claims a small

interest in the midibus market, but

will not provide figures.

Nissan marketing research and

planning manager Peter Coetzee

says Nissan stopped Importing a

24-seater bus 2,5 years ago when

the rand exchange rate made them

too expensive.

He says people want more

luxury in this line, which reduces

seating. Nissan is investigating the

market again and negotiating with

Japan to see what midibuses are

available.

Coetzee says 30-seater buses are

used extensively on privatised

routes in the UK and that such

vehicles could solve SA's transport

Sroblems by proving more viable

lan half-filled 60-seater buses.

Comark is to build six 30-seater

buses a month using ADE engines.

GM Kobus Vosloo says his sales

team has estimated at least 12

units a month could be sold.

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SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

BUILDING PLANS DOWN—The value of building plans passed last year decreased by

12 5% to R2,052bn compared with 1985, says Central Statistical Services. The

1985 decrease was 18.5% compared with 1984 figures. However, Building Industries Federation executive director Lou Davis said there were indications ot a

-speed up" in the industry this year. There seemed to be a substantial increase

in activity in the architectural and quantity surveying professions. Added to

this was an apparent increase in confidence in the launching of new projects,

he said. Davis added that during a depression, jobs were put on the shell,

but these could be immediately activated. He stressed that there was a time

lae of a year or 18 months between plans being passed and projects being

started. [Text] [By Gerald Reilly] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English

10 Feb 87 p 2] /9274

CAR PRICES UP—Motor vehicle prices are on the move again—but not all are up.

Toyota, Samcor, VW and GM have raised the prices of most models but one of

VW's most popular models has come down R30 and Samcor has cut R120 off the

price of two of its bakkies. Toyota passenger cars are up by between 2.0 and

2 5 percent. Most VWs are up by 2.9 percent and Audis by between 2.0 and 3.5.

the 1.6 litre VW Golf CSL, however, is down R30. GM's rises are 2.9 percent

on smaller cars, 2.5 on bigger ones and from 1.0 to 4.0 on Isuzu ^kkies

Samcor's small Fords and Mazdas increase by 2.0 percent, with Ford Sierras^

up 2.0-2.5 and Mazda 626s up 2.5-3.5. The 1,600 cc one-tonners are down R120.

[Text] [Jeremy Sinek] [Johannesburg THE STAR in English 4 Feb 87 p 3]

/9274

HOUSE PRICES DOWN 17 PERCENT—House prices for 1986 were 17% down on those for

1985, after adjustment for inflation, according to the latest United Building

Society (UBS) quarterly housing review. And although the average price rose

slightly during the last quarter of the year, compared with the previous

quarter, UBS economist Hans Falkena does not foresee a sharp increase during

1987, The average price of a medium-sized house was aboug R71.200 in the

fourth quarter of 1986—2% down on the same quarter of 1985 but 3% higher

than the previous quarter. The average for 1986 was $71,100. In Johannesburg, average prices for small, medium and larger older houses were R65,866,

R79,803 and Rl20,912 respectively. For new houses, those prices were R69,900,

R100.175 and R143,464. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 20 Feb

87 p 3] /9274

88
PROTOTYPE TV SET—TV and video-hire specialists Visionhire has developed a

prototype TV set which enables the viewer to select the desired soundtrack

for simulcast transmissions without use of a radio receiver. The company is

now negotiating with a local manufacturer to produce the set for commercial

use, says Visionhire MD Graham Taylor. Initially, he is looking for exclusive supply of the new sets for at least a couple of months, and they should

be available in the next three to six months. He says that with some 10

hours a week of simulcast transmission, generally of top-grade material,

users have become aware of the drawback of having to tune a radio every time

they want to listen to a dubbed programme in the original language. l!0ur

technical department looked into the problem, and it has come up with a

simple switch which enables the viewer quickly to select the original soundtrack for programmes relayed on TV1 or TV4." Taylor says viewers can also

record programmes in whatever language they choose, "We believe we are the

first company in SA to produce a set with this facility. It is a direct result of the high priority we place on training our technicians and keeping

them abreast of developments," Cost: On application. Phone: (Oil) 786-6012.

[Text] [Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 13 Feb 87 p 86] /9274

NEW LIGHTWEIGHT WELDING CLOTH—A new lightweight welding cloth, Weldred, has

been developed for the local market by Cape-based Kapasit. Lightweight glass

cloth has been coated with a special compound to provide a product which is

self-extinguishing and which will not burn. Weldred is widely used in factories and on construction sites as welding cloth, but it can also be used as

a heat or spray shield and forms an excellent protective cover for equipment,

says the manufacturer. Cost: On application. Phone: (021) 31-2151. [Text]

[Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 13 Feb 87 p 86] /9274

CUTTING PIPE COSTS—Prompted by the inflationary effect of the fall of the

rand on imports, Bosal Afrika has gone into production of a range of stainless

steel tubing for the automotive, mining, catering, engineering and waterreticulation industries. Bosal says the low rand value has created great

demand for locally manufactured stainless stell tubing. "We have the capacity

to meet this new demand, and we expect to service a larger section of the market

this year," says tube division sales director Tony Wakeford. "After making

mild steel tubing for 20 years and stainless steel tubing for in-company use

for the last four years we are confident we can offer a product at least equal

to anything from overseas." Initially, two grades will be produced: grade

409, developed in the U.S. and used extensively in SA's motor industry for the

original-equipment exhaust market; and grade 304, used in the exhaust replacement market and for cosmetic purposes because a mirror finish can be achieved.

Cost: On application. Phone: (012) 83-5211. [Text] [Johannesburg FINANCIAL

MAIL in English 13 Feb 87 p 86] /9274

NEW R0-R0 BOATS—Shipowners have given notice that they are not about to take

lying down the increased competition expected to result from deregulation of

the road transport industry. Unicorn Lines' (UL) answer to the National Transport Policy Study's recommendations that normal competitive forces be allowed

back into the motor transport industry is the introduction to its fleet of

two extremely flexible ro-ro (roll-on-roll-off) vessels on the Durban to

Cape Town run. Management makes it clear that it expects the two new vessels,

the 13,000t deadweight Border and its sister ship Barrier, to win back much

of the coastal cargo lost to road and rail hauliers over recent years. The

89
volume of coastwise domestic cargo carried by sea, they estimate, has shrunk by

some 26% in five years. High ad valorem wharfage, generally slower sea transit

times, cargo handling hassles and complex documentation has tended to induce

shippers to look for alternative transport. [Excerpt] [Johannesburg FINANCIAL

MAIL in English 13 Feb 87 p 89]

QUINTON IIAZELL PUMPS ARRIVE—Echlin-Charger Manufacturing of Steeledale and

Echlin Distributing Co of Electron will soon be se-ling Quinton Hazell water

pumps, thanks to a deal in which their parent company, Echlin Inc of America,

has bought Quinton Hazell pic. At the moment, Quinton Hazell has no representation in South Africa, Its automotive division, taken over by Bosal some

time ago, is not affected by the deal between Echlin—which makes engine and

brake systems and power-transmission replacement parts, and Quinton Hazell —

which makes parts for European and Japanese motor vehicles. Echlin<-Charger

promotions manager Mr Ged Eastham said Echlin's South African subsidiaries

would benefit from their parent's deal by being able to buy in stock from

Britain, The first item on the market, Quinton Hazell water pumps, will be

followed by others, possibly components for suspension systems. [Text]

[Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR (Finance) in English 22 Feb 87 p 4] /9274

LASCON LINKS WITH GERMANY—Lascon Lighting Industries has increased its

strength in the architectual lighting sector by securing a manufacturing

licence agreement with Hoffmeister-Leuchten of Germany. Lascon has an estimated 60% of the SA lighting market. The Johannesburg-based subsidiary of

Power Technologies (Powertech) has expanded its home-grown range of architectural luminaries with products that include a sophisticated ceiling track system previously imported from Finland. Lascon will make Hoffmeister lighting

track and will base its concepts on the German system. Architects, lighting

designers and specifiers are reported to be happy with the development because

it secures supplies in a time of sanctions. The architectural lighting market

is estimated to be worth R23-million a year in SA. Karl-Heinz Mackensen,

manager of the Lascon's architectural division, says the link with Hoffmeister,

and particularly the manufacturing agreement, will increase Lascon's market

share in this specialised sector. [Text] [Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES in

English 22 Feb 87 p 9] /9274

HEAVY TRANSPORT INDUSTRY IN CRISIS—The heavy transport industry is in serious financial difficulties and a number of companies are facing bankruptcy,

the Public Carriers Association (PCA) said yesterday, PCA executive director

Ian Moss said the problems arose after a Supreme Court judgement against the

vague wording of certain transport permits, Moss said a White Paper tabled

in Parliament to declare government policy on transport showed the system

was no longer in line with economic realities. Quoting from the Paper, Moss

said some points of intent included: —Reduction of administration costs and

unnecessary government interference; —Provision of employment opportunities

for all5 —Encouragement of small business development. He said at the request of the Minister of Transport Affairs, the PCA is at present giving the

matter urgent attention. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 18 Feb

87 p 3] /9274

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