076091

JPRS-SSA-87-004

m JANUARY 1987

Sub-Saharan Africa Report

n 125

FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE

REPRODUCED BY

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

NATIONAL TECHNICAL

INFORMATION SERVICE

SPRINGFIELD, VA. 22161

MIC QÜAUTY INSPECTED 6

\1
NOTE

JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign

newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency

transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language

sources are translated; those from English-language sources

are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and

other characteristics retained.

Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets

[] are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text]

or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the

last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was

processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the information was summarized or extracted.

Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are

enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a question mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the

original but have been supplied as appropriate in context.

Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an

item originate with the source. Times within items are as

given by source.

The contents of this publication in no way represent the policies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government.

PROCUREMENT OF PUBLICATIONS

JPRS publications may be ordered from the National Technical

Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161. In ordering, it is recommended that the JPRS number, title, date and

author, if applicable, of publication be cited.

Current JPRS publications are announced in Government Reports

Announcements issued semi-monthly by the National Technical

Information Service, and are listed in the Monthly Catalog of

U.S. Government Publications issued by the Superintendent of

Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.

20402.

Correspondence pertaining to matters other than procurement

may be addressed to Joint Publications Research Service,

1000 North Glebe Road, Arlington, Virginia 22201.
BURKINA

Editorialist Responds to Togo Charges

(Arzouma Zampaligre; SIDWAYA, 6 Oct 86) 23

Military Joins Agricultural Campaign

(SIDWAYA, 8 Oct 86) 25

GUINEA-BISSAU

Bafata Movement Outlines Goals

(0 DIABO, 18 Nov 86) 27

Luis Cabral Said To Have No Ties With Anti-Vieira Movement

(EXPRESSO, 15 Nov 86) 28

LESOTHO

Chinese Advisers To Help Increase Food Production

(THE NEKYA TIMES, 16 Oct 86) 30

Police To Probe North Korean Connection to Recent Killings

(THE STAR, 19 Nov 86) 31

MADAGASCAR

MALI

Drought Reportedly Kills 50,000

(THE DAILY NEWS, 24 Nov 86) 33

Traore Trying To Hold Diverse Elements Together

(AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL, 29 Oct 86) 34

MOZAMBIQUE

Chissano Said Preoccupied With Rebel Advances

(Carlos Blanco de Morais; SEMANARIO, 15 Nov 86) 37

Chissano Seen as Continuing Pro-Soviet Line

(0 DIABO, 11 Nov 86) 40

NIGERIA

Briefs

Military Deliveries Orders 44

SWAZILAND

Briefs

Coca Cola, Other Companies Relocating 45

- b -
UGANDA

Human Rights Spokesman Cites Continued Violations, Terror

(Guenter Krabbe; FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE, 20 Oct 86) 46

ZAMBIA

Briefs

Refugees Told 'Grow Own Food'

Zambians Forced To Join SA Army

48

48

ZIMBABWE

Scandinavian Countries Aid in Development Projects

(THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE, 28 Nov 86; THE HERALD, 1 Dec 86) 49

Sweden Signs 3-Year Grant Agreement 49

Denmark Helps Find Alternative Supplies 50

Norway's Redd Barna Helps Children 50

Danida Improves Agricultural Schools 51

Briefs

Record Wheat Crop Delivered to GMB 52

SOUTH AFRICA

AFRIKANER/GOVERNMENT

U.S. Appointment of Black Ambassador Called Provocative

(DIE AFRIKANER, 8 Oct 86) 53

Heunis Chairs Meeting on Progress of RSC's

(SAPA, 11 Dec 86) 55

NGK Ties To Reformed Ecumenical Synod Defended

(Editorial; DIE BURGER, 24 Oct 86) 56

Reactions to NGK's Withdrawal of Support for Apartheid Cited

(DIE BURGER, 24 Oct 86) 58

Stricter Measures for Helping Black Education Condoned

(Andre Brink; DIE VOLKSBLAD, 22 Oct 86) 61

Oil Prices Not Expected To Rise Any More This Year

(Johan van Tonder; DIE VOLKSBLAD, 22 Oct 86) 64

Agricultural Crisis Forcing Farmers To Face Change

(Editorial; VOLKSBLAD, 24 Oct 86) 65

- c -
Use of Nuclear Technology in Agriculture Foreseen

(DIE BURGER, 7 Nov 86) 66

Briefs

U.S. Criticized at Air Force School 68

CP-HNP Talks Break Down 68

BLACKS

Soweto Council Continues Evictions, Power Shutoffs

(Langa Skosana; SOWETAN, 12 Dec 86) 69

Briefs

ANC Urges Press To Ignore Censorship 70

2 Million Apply for ID 70

Buthelezi Warns Against Revolution 70

SOCIOPOLITICAL/OTHER

Private Sector Council's New Strategy for Urbanization Evaluated

(THE STAR, 3 Dec 86; BUSINESS DAY, 3 Dec 86) 71

PSC Urges Government To Take Action, by Colleen Ryan 71

New Jobs in Low-cost Urban Areas, by Linda Ensor 72

Reporter Views Worsening Labor Situation in Past Year

(Sheryl Raine; THE STAR, 2 Dec 86) 74

Cosatu's First Anniversary Noted

(Mike Siluma; THE STAR, 1 Dec 86) 77

Future of Johannesburg as Post-Industrial City Noted

(Hans Hallen; BUSINESS DAY, 1 Dec 86) 78

Major Campaign To Be Launched To Promote Indaba Proposals

(Colleen Ryan; THE STAR, 4 Dec 86) 80

ECONOMIC

Changing Foreign Perceptions of National Economy Discussed

(John Battersby Interview; BUSINESS DAY, 4 Dec 86) 82

Experts Debate Political, Economic Motives for Bus Desegregation

(Shirley Woodgate; THE STAR, 3 Dec 86) 84

Study Reveals Possible Death of Mining Towns

(Richard Bartlett; BUSINESS DAY, 28 Nov 86) 85

Bicsa Member Companies Intend To Stay

(BUSINESS DAY, 28 Nov 86) 86

- d -
Sanctions Affecting Coal Exports

(Cherilyn Ireton; BUSINESS DAY, 2 Dec 86) 87

Reserve Bank Bolsters Gold Holdings

(Gerald Prosolendis; BUSINESS DAY, 5 Dec 86) 88

Briefs

More Small Businesses Urged 89

Gross Farm Income Figures 89

INDUSTRIAL/S&T

Steel Company Escapes EC Sanctions

(Anthea Duigan; BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 86) 90

Low Oil Prices Hinder Synfuel Developments

(BUSINESS DAY, 17 Nov 86) 92

New Car Sales Emerging From Serious Recession

(Madden Cole; THE CITIZEN, 13 Oct 86) 93

Dilemma Facing Motor Industry Discussed

(THE CITIZEN, 14 Nov 86) 94

CSIR Plans To Produce Technology for Industry

(THE CITIZEN, 29 Oct 86) 96

Sanctions To Provide Good Opportunities for Industry

(BUSINESS DAY, 30 Oct 86) 97

Industry's Energy Costs Expected To Soar

(Mick Collins; BUSINESS DAY, 3 Dec 86) 98

Afrikaans Linguistic Computer Support System Created

(Marilyn Cohen; THE CITIZEN, 10 Nov 86) 99

Iscor Achievements, Plans Discussed

(Hamish Mclndoe; BUSINESS DAY, 29 Oct 86) 100

Metal Industries Battle To Survive 5-Year Slump

(Frank Jeans; THE STAR, 13 Oct 86) 102

Plastic Industry Production Thriving

(BUSINESS DAY, 25 Nov 86) 103

Liquidations in Various Industrial Sectors Surveyed

(Malcolm Fothergill; THE SUNDAY STAR FINANCE, 2 Nov 86) 104

Development Plans for Mossel Bay Described

(Anthony Doman; WEEKEND ARGUS, 25 Oct 86) 106

e -
New R600M Plant for Sintering Ore

(BUSINESS DAY, 11 Nov 86) 107

Tractor, Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers Report Losses

(David Furlonger; BUSINESS DAY, 25 Nov 86) 108

Motor Industry Losses Reported

(David Furlonger; BUSINESS DAY, 13 Nov 86) 109

Briefs

Widening of Ben Schoeman Highway 110

Lined Steel Pipes 110

Ice Plant To Cool Mine 110

Mintek Awarded for Technological Achievement 111

ESCOM Steps Up Rural Voltage 111

New Range of Tires Launched 111

Antarctic Supply Vessel Returns 111

Platinum Refinery Expanded 112

Building Industry on Decline 112

Aircraft Trading Company Created 112

/9986

- f -
INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS

AFRICAN STATES SHUN SANCTIONS AGAINST RSA

Some Countries Lack Means

Paris JEUNE ÄFRIQUE ECONOMIE in French Oct/Nov 86 pp 73-75

[Text] In Mbabane, capital of the tiny kingdom of Swaziland sandwiched between South Africa and Mozambique, there is but one topic of conversation

these days: the "economic miracle- which is to make this country of 680,000

inhabitants one of the largest exporters on the black continent.

The signs of this "miracle" can be seen everywhere: new buildings, and hotels

filled with businessmen from all countries. A new international airport,

destined to become one of the largest on the continent, is already under

construction. More important still, hundreds of containers can be seen lined

up on both sides of the kingdom's main road, quickly christened "the export

zone." They all bear the label in huge blue letters: Made in Swaziland.

In the containers, everything can be found: ready-to-wear garments, machine

tools, prospecting equipment, light arms, and even wine.

Official statistics reflect this "miracle": the kingdom is already a major

exporter of agricultural and manufactured products. Yet one can traverse the

entire kingdom and not find a single factory or vineyard. Already christened

"the Hong Kong of Africa," Swaziland is in fact only an emergency exit for the

South African economy which now faces the threat of outright boycott by the

world's most industrialized countries. The decision of the American congress

at the beginning of October to ignore the advice of President Ronald Reagan

and to impose a whole series of sanctions against Pretoria showed that South

African President Botha's regime can no longer count on Western friends to

escape punitive measures. In Western Europe as in the united States, public

opinion is perceptibly ahead of the governments. Even the argument that sanctions may aggravate the unemployment problem in the West does not seem to have

much effect. Apartheid has become so unacceptable to Western public opinion

that the possibility of sanctions imposed by the EEC (European Economic Community) can no longer be excluded. All industrialized countries, with the

possible exception of Japan, will no doubt take punitive measures against

South Africa between now and the end of 1987. Will these measures be effective? "The united States and the EEC alone cannot force South Africa against

the wall," stressed Peter Jacobs, a white businessman who exports South African wines to Canada through Swaziland. "Sanctions would have to be applied
against all the countries of southern Africa to achieve the desired effect."

"Using the economic weapon against Pretoria requires the dismantling of the

system of economic defense it has managed to establish," stated Barry Pryce, a

British analyst.

The South African strategy had the goal of creating three lines of "economic

defense." The first includes those countries almost totally tied to South

Africa on the economic level. Thus Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland are part

of a customs union dominated by Pretoria. These three countries, together with

Zimbabwe which also has preferential trade agreements with Pretoria, constitute the first line in the system of "economic defense" in question.

The most recent statistics well show the reality of the situation in which the

four countries find themselves. More than 60 percent of Zimbabwe's trade is

carried on with South Africa which alone represents 30 percent of the national

revenue of Robert Mugabe's country. South African investments, private or

public, provide more than 28 percent of all investments in Zimbabwe. More than

80 percent of this country's trade goes through South African territory.

This sad reality was well illustrated by the fact that all the supplies

necessary for the recent summit of non-aligned countries in Harare were bought

in South Africa. "Even the paper on which they printed the resolutions directed against us was bought here," claims the South African ambassador in Paris.

The situation of the other three Pretoria "hostages" is even more tragic.

South Africa provides nearly 99 percent of all Lesotho's imports. The figures

for Swaziland and Botswana are 90 percent and 88 percent respectively. Pretoria supplies Lesotho with 100 percent of its electricity; 79 percent in Swaziland's case, and 52 percent for Botswana.

In the second "line of defense" are Mozambique, Zambia, and Malawi. In Mozambique's case, Pretoria has systematically destroyed the country's entire

economic infrastructure to prevent the Marxist-leaning regime of President

Samora Machel from pursuing an independent economic policy. By arming the

groups fighting against the Maputo government, Pretoria has achieved a permanent means of pressure against its neighbor. The destruction of Mozambique's

road and port infrastructure has at the same time given Pretoria the opportunity of making itself indispensable for the economies of Zambia and Malawi.

Over the years, these three countries have become cheap sources of manpower

for South Africa. More than half a million immigrant laborers are currently in

South Africa while the number of clandestine immigrants is perhaps over 1

million.

The third "line of defense" established by Pretoria includes more than 30

African countries, with 2 billion rands in trade in 1985 which may exceed 3

billion this year (approximately $1 billion). South Africa is one of the

largest suppliers on the African continent. Its exports to other African

countries greatly exceed its imports.
At the same time, South Africa has managed to establish solid links with

nearly all the Gulf countries. Between 1980 and 1986, the latter have supplied

more than 27 million metric tons of crude oil to South Africa at a cost of

$7.7 billion. Acoording to the statistics of the famous insurance company

Lloyds of London, 119 oil tankers from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and other

Gulf countries have met more than half South Africa's needs for crude oil.

The South Africans are also active in Latin America. Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico, and Chili are firm, preferential partners. Some of these countries, especially Brazil, are already prepared to take the place of the Americans and Europeans who may leave South Africa as part of the application of a

sanctions policy.

Dismantling the networks created by Pretoria to circumvent the sanctions is no

easy task, and requires the participation of all the countries concerned. Even

the most enthusiastic supporters of sanctions recognize that the results can

only be minimal.

«Establishing sanctions against the Botha regime is perhaps no more than a

symbolic gesture in the last resort," Monsignor Desmond Tutu, Cape archbishop,

said recently. "But the gesture must be made. And I am convinced that all

Africans who will suffer because of the sanctions are prepared to make this

sacrifice."

Nothing is less certain. However, the Africans who are invited to make the

"necessary sacrifices" are precisely those who do not have the means for

undertaking heroic action against apartheid. An argument often used by supporters of sanctions refers to the famous formula that one cannot make an

omelet without breaking eggs. In this particular case, there is the danger of

breaking a lot of eggs without for all that managing to make the omelet so

greatly desired.

The Organization of African Unity (OAU) cannot be convincing when it preaches

what its members do not practice. Even if the EEC joins the united States in

imposing sanctions against Pretoria, the measures taken will not be effective

without the active participation of all the African countries.

But the African countries that trade with Pretoria cannot be persuaded to

change their policy by appealing to sterile slogans.

The tragic reality is that many of these countries have no other choice than

to remain in the South African orbit.

Weakening Pretoria to force its leaders to accept the end of apartheid and the

installation of a pluralist political system requires above all a policy of

assistance for the African countries which depend on South Africa.

Thus any serious policy of sanctions against Botha must begin with a realistic

plan to help the African countries detach themselves from South Africa. This

plan could be applied in several stages. The united States and the EEC could

very quickly compensate for the losses of countries such as Cape Verde and

Kenya so they could ban South African planes from landing. One could then
imagine a major international effort to restore Mozambique's ports to an

acceptable state, while at the same time developing the rail networks in

Tanzania, Angola, and Mozambique so that the so-called front-line states could

avoid South African territory.

Another phase in such a plan would be for the industrialized countries to

replace South African products that are sought after in black Africa because

of their competitive prices as well as their quality which is adapted to the

conditions of the continent.

To prepare the plan in question, which does not necessarily mean applying it

in the immediate future, requires a minimum degree of consensus from the rest

of Africa. But the bitter fact is that Africa has no policy worthy of the name

for combating apartheid, and the African leaders are very divided on the

subject of sanctions.

The campaign that the African countries have been waging for several years to

persuade the united States and the EEC to impose sanctions against Pretoria

seems on the way to succeeding in the next 2 or 3 years. But was not this

campaign a sort of excuse to avoid discussing the necessity for a pan-African

policy for combating apartheid?

Demanding that others apply sanctions against the Botha regime is perhaps

sufficient to appease some people's consciences. But that cannot be a substitute for a long-term policy. In the 2 or 3 years to come, a rather strange

situation may present itself: South Africa "punished" by the United States and

the EEC while at the same time trading with nearly all African countries as

well as Japan, the Gulf countries, and the USSR.

We do not suggest this remote possibility to confirm critics of the sanctions

policy in their convictions. Sanctions remain a quite formidable weapon so

long as they are applied across the board. The economic isolation of the

Pretoria regime in an African context is in the last resort much more effective than selective sanctions approved by the American Congress.

Without this isolation, the Canadians will continue to drink wine "bottled in

Swaziland" while Americans will buy all the strategic metals necessary for

their military industry from "independent" companies headquartered in Mbabane.

In the Gulf emirates, one chicken out of two already bears the tag "bred in

the commonwealth": all Pretoria's "economic hostages" are members of the

famous club of former British colonies and dominions.

More Demanded From Others

Paris JEUNE AFRIQUE ECONOMIE in French Oct/Nov 86 pp 74

[Article by Sennen Andriamirado: "Let Africa Dare to Demand From Itself What

It Demands From Others"]

[Text] What can an OAU president do to shake the economic might of South

Africa? He calls the world to the rescue, makes the consciences of nations and

states uneasy, and sometimes obtains economic sanctions against the apartheid
regime. But he must also set an example.

Following his election to head the African organization in July 1986, Denis

Sassou Nguesso of the Congo decided to refuse landing rights in Brazzaville to

UTA planes heading for South Africa (see p 32). But between the decision and

its execution, there was time for negotiations. And though president of the

OAU, the head of the Congolese state could not expect to impose sanctions all

alone—even if only symbolically, in the name of all Africa—against the

Pretoria regime.

Africa certainly has few means for imposing an economic boycott on South

Africa. But if the OAU demands that other continents impose sanctions against

Pretoria, it is for the time being behind the Americans and Europeans whom it

nevertheless incited. Beyond the slogans, of course, a real strangulation of

the South African economy may result in the asphyxiation of the front-line

countries. Objectively speaking, Lesotho, Botswana, and Zimbabwe are forced to

compromise. But are Zaire, Gabon, and the Ivory Coast obliged to import South

African products? Has the Comorian state really no other choice than to open

itself not only to South African tourists but also to South African entrepreneurs? For 2 years now, canned goods from South Africa have been found even in

the shops of revolutionary Burkina. And Madagascar sometimes compensates for

its shortages of supplies by importing South African butter etc.

Of course only the South Africans know exactly the volume of trade is between

their country and the African states. They keep a precise, valuable account,

being very careful not to reveal it, preferring to use it as a diplomatic

weapon—that of shame—against those clients who might be tempted to protest

too loudly.

For a year now, the OAU general secretariat was given the task of making out a

report on trade relations with South Africa. So far there have been no results. Not so much because of the OAU's lack of means as because of the

unwillingness of the member states. The Africans should be ashamed to demand

from others what they do not dare to require of themselves, and to take their

words for deeds. For as the Wolof proverb says,

n

it is not by shaking them

that the donkey will get rid of his ears." The knife must enter the flesh.

982M

CSO: 3419/39
INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS

PAPER EXAMINES SANCTIONS, INTERACTION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Johannesburg SAF POSITION PAPER in English Nov/Dec 86 [no pages given]

[Article by Dr D.A.S. Herbst, S.A. Forum Trustee]

[Text] Relations between some Southern African states and the Republic of

South Africa have in recent weeks become more strained than ever.

Ironically these strained relations

have coincided with the imposition of

sanctions against South Africa by the US

Congress.

Recent events, pronouncements by

individual leaders in Southern Africa

and conference resolutions have contributed nothing to the art of association

which is so badly needed to manage the

subcontinent's interwoven problems.

SUMMITS

At various summits, leaders of the socalled Frontline States have provided

little evidence that they are capable of

formulating viable alternative approaches to regional problems.

Most leaders appear to see "apartheid" as the major obstacle which must

be removed immediately. There is a lack

ofrealism in that their choice ofmethods

to achieve apartheid's destruction could

also lead to the destruction of the socioeconomic fabric of the region. The attitude seems to be that "the economic disasters of tomorrow will take care of

themselves."

WARNING

No heed is taken ofthe British Government's warning that they should not expect to be bailed out by Britain in the

event of South African retaliatory measures as a consequence of sanctions.

The Frontline States' approach was

recently reflected clearly by the Zimbabwean Prime Minister who said in

Luanda, "We are sufFering. How much

more can we suffer? We support sanctions because they will shorten the time,

that we must suffer."

This view shows no understanding of

the severe economic consequences sanctions would have — not only for Zimbabwe — if the South African economy

were to collapse.

ABILITY

Furthermore this view reflects a misconception regarding the South African

economy's ability to survive.

In many Southern African circles

there seems to be an impression that

sanctions, coupled with the unrest situation in South Africa, will bring the

South African Government to its knees.

Frontline summit resolutions and various pronouncements reveal a serious

lack of pragmatism towards national

and regional priorities.

TRANSFORMATION

Absent from their arguments therefore is a visualisation of a gradual and

orderly transformation from apartheid

to a system acceptable to most South

Africans.

Herwig Rudolph summarises this

unrealistic approach as follows: "It is

doubtful that it has dawned on Frontline

leaders that visions of apartheid being

pulled down like a colonial flag at a

midnight ceremony are flights offancy.

"Frontline perceptions are (irmly

aligned with those of the ANC's external

mission.

"The Frontline States find themselves

in a situation in which any pragmatic
association with the reform process in

South Africa translates into a loss ofpolitical face, or even worse, a betrayal of

long cherished African ideals ..." (Africa

Institute Bulletin, Vol 26, No 8, 1986).

Frontline States tend to ignore basic

truths about their own situation:

• Unstable governments as a result of

unpopular policies. This is true of, for

example, Angola, Mozambique and

Zambia.

• Unsuccessful attempts at economic

regional co-operation in an effort to

free themselves oftheir dependence on

South Africa. The Southern African

Development Co-ordination Conference (SADCC) which therefore excludes South Africa, remains to a large

extent a creation on paper and has not

achieved the desired economic

independence.

• Instability and civil wars in countries

like Angola and Mozambique underscore the important role of South

Africa in the region's transport infrastructure.

Emotional pronouncements about the

need to bring the "racist Pretoria regime" to a point ofsurrender, may satisfy deeply rooted political prejudices, but

do nothing to enhance the living conditions of the subcontinent's people.

FREE MARKET

A pragmatic approach, on the other

hand, which recognises South Africa as

an economically viable and free market

oriented partner could create the framework for utilisation of the region's

potential.

Sanctions, and the emotional call for

them by some Southern African countries should be viewed against this background.

Wherever sanctions have been applied they have had a spill-over effect —

the states which interact with the target

country are inevitably affected, often

more severely than the target country

itself.

PUNITIVE

Sanctions can be defined as a punitive

process ofisolation aimed at a particular,

or target country. Pressure is exerted primarily in terms of economic measures,

but with the ultimate objective being

political.

Sanctions therefore presuppose economic pressure on a political system. A

political system is a complex whole

which is made up of interacting components.

As a result of the nature ofany system,

external pressure is not limited to one

single component. It is spread throughout the system because ofthe interaction

between the various components, and

the system therefore exists because of the

interaction.

TENSION

It is in this field where tension arises

between pressure (in the form of sanctions) and the political system. In order

to achieve the desired effect, the pressure

has to be selective and over as small an

area as possible. The system, however,

tends to spread the pressure over a wider

area.

This argument when applied to the

interdependence in Southern Africa,

views South Africa as an independent

political system composed of several

components which exist in interaction.

(The effect of economic pressure in the

form of a low gold price or a poor agricultural production on the State's political ability is a good example of this.)

South Africa is also a component of a

greater system in terms ofher interaction

with African countries. The same is true

or Africa and her contact with the rest of

the world.

ABSORB SHOCK

In reviewing the effect ofsanctions on

the subcontinent, it emerges clearly that

the ability of the different systems loabsorb shock has to be determined by, firstly, the stability of the system and,

secondly, the existing interaction in the

system.

Lack of stability within any political

system decreases its ability to absorb

shock while poor interaction again decreases the possibility of spreading that

shock.

In terms ofsanctions therefore a negative scenario will emerge in a global system where there is a high degree ofinstability as well as great interaction between the components.

ECONOMIC GIANT

South Africa is the economic giant of

Southern Africa. The ability of her

neighbours to absorb the sanctionsshock

is thus to be seen in an analysis of the

situation in the African continent as a

whole:

• Twenty-nine ofthe world's 34 poorest

countries are in Africa.

• Africa's population growth is faster

than that of any other continent. The

average population growth is at present 3,2 percent.
• There are in Africa at present more

than three million refugees as a result

of famine, civil wars and droughts.

• Urbanisation is on the increase. The

average tempo of urbanisation over

the last few years has risen between

seven and 20 percent.

• The countries of sub-Saharan Africa

had a trade deficit ofR16 billion during 1984. The total debts amount to

R170 billion and the interest payments on these debts have become an

impossible task.

• Unemployment is reaching record

heights while economic growth shows

a downward trend. Between 30 percent and 40 percent of the urban

labour force is unemployed, while 70

percent ofthe total population in rural

areas lives below the breadline.

• According to the International

Labour Organisation the per capita

income has decreased between 15 and

25 percent over the last 15 years. Over

the past five years the per capita income decreased in Africa at an annual

rate of 4,1 percent.

• Africa faces a severe fuel crisis. A recent SADCC report indicates that fuel

for the purposes of heating and food

preparation in 1984 in the nine

member states was as follows: oil products provided for only 8,7 percent of

fuel consumption, coal accounted for

only six percent while electricity ac-

: counted for four percent. Wood and

other traditional fuel materials, such

as cow dung, provided 81,2 percent of

the needs.

• Rapid urbanisation goes hand in hand

with the elimination of all burning

materials in the vicinity of urban

areas.

These examples illustrate how the

components within a political system

contribute to global weakness. When a

rapid population growth pressurises a

particular system which cannot accommodate this pressure, unemployment

follows.

POVERTY

Ineffective utilisation of the soil leads

to poverty and urbanisation. In the end

all these factors combine to form a

vicious circle, thereby weakening the individual components.

Within the political systems of Africa

there is a serious shortage of factors

necessary for lasting stability, and in the

context of Southern Africa these emerge

very clearly.

In terms of interaction, the political

systems in the Southern African region

reveal a strange anomaly. Although

there are political differences between

South Africa and the Frontline States,

there is active interaction in almost all

other spheres.

DOMINANT

This can be attributed to the fact that

South Africa is on the one hand the dominant system in the subcontinent,

while on the other hand the Frontline

States display a gradual weakening of

their structures. Consequently a natural

interaction with South Africa took place

simply for their survival.

Compared with Southern Africa as a

whole, South Africa accounts for:

80 percent of the total GNP (1983)

82 percent of the motor vehicles (1980)

63 percent of the tarred roads (1982)

57 percent of the rail lines (1985)

77 percent of the electricity generated

(1980)

84 percent of the telephones installed

(1977)

97 percent of the coal mined (1980)

98 percent of the iron ore mined (1980)

82 percent of the chrome ore mined

(1978)

70 percent of the maize grown (1980)

87 percent of the wheat grown (1980)

67 percent of the sugar cane produced

(1979)

39 percent of the cattle stock (1980)

80 percent of the sheep flock (1980)

(Source: Leistner, E. Bulletin, Africa

Institute, Vol 26, No 4, 1986)

South Africa's importance to the

survival of other states in the subcontinent especially emerges in terms of imports and exports.

It is particularly in this field that

South Africa plays a dominant role,

partly because South Africa possesses the

technical ability and know-how to create

the necessary infrastructure and to sustain it, and partly because internal problems in most ofthe Frontline States have

resulted in the collapse of their own

capabilities.

It is a well-known fact that landlocked countries like Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia,

Malawi and Zaire are in some cases completely, and in other cases almost entirely, dependent on the South African

transport services for their existence.
Traffic flow between SA and neighbourinR states

State

Rail traffic tonnages

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85

Traffic tonnage bandied by SA harbours

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85

Zaire From

To

528984

97384

293948

99104

288037

113352

278936

115504

From

To

312125

4195

293042

14188

288037

24500

277182

33703

Zambia From

To

164911

303393

156485

238132

224498

272175

122366

390203

From

To

78015

59691

152127

49223

219576

18519

108805

52419

Zimbabwe From

To

936328

1394659

951319

912826

987825

747635

797281

1176098

From

To

468022

264522

513 306

274402

277207

137906

96616

444752

Botswana From

To

62271

331752

59182

325754

47418

361 343

27874

409059

From

To

1049

3126

8654

14340

62

37039

184

48974

Malawi From

To

- -

367

127

24381

8283

From

To

— 96 -

19788

6851

Mozambique From

To

809760

1 719977

798656

1541 481

532589

752661

805091

849726

From

To — — — _-_

Swaziland From

To

1055379

94988

200000

237075

150000

50903

821898

56242

From

To

55589

22980

27665

92

27812 775019

36793

Lesotho From

To

142815

414377

108326

335710

6138

29814 69233

From

To 77 1950 13520 38994

Source: Chamber of Mines' Newsletter, September 1986

Activities by guerrilla groups and civil

wars in Angola and Mozambique have

limited the use of railways such as the

Benguela line in Angola, the Beira

Mutare line, the Nacala Malawi line

and the Maputo Nelspruit line to a large

extent.

The Tazara line to Tanzania has not

lived up to expectations. Structural defects, poor maintenance, theft and congestion in the port ofDar es Salaam have

resulted in the line never having been

able to handle Zambian exports, particularly copper.

Although export and import figures

for trade routed through South Africa in

respect of the Frontlone States are not

readily available, the following figures

have been published:

Zaire — Imports: 57 percent, Exports:

45 percent copper, 60 percent lead and

tin, 40 percent cobalt.

Zambia — Imports: 70 percent, Exports: 40 percent.

Malawi — Imports: 60 percent, Exports: 50 percent.

Zimbabwe: — Imports: 68 percent,

Exports: 65 percent.

(Some sources say that Zimbabwe is at

present dependent on South African

ports for 90 percent of her imports and

exports.)

The BLS countries' (Botswana,

Lesotho and Swaziland) transport systems are totally linked to that of South

Africa.

Swaziland can export directly to

Maputo but the export route is hampered by continuous guerrilla activities in

Mozambique. In 1983 Swaziland's total

imports were R609 million of which

R512 million came through South

BLS COUNTRIES

Furthermore it is known that the

Southern African Customs Union

(SACU) is an important source of income for these BLS countries.

The BLS states are joined with South

Africa in the SACU. The customs union

agreement provides for the free flow of

goods among member states, which levy

the same tariffs on goods imported from

outside the union. All major ports of entry are in South Africa, which collects

the customs duties and allocates them on

a. pro rata basis.

Botswana's share from the SACU is,

for example, 28 percent of its domestic

income while Lesotho receives 64 percent and Swaziland 60 percent.

Approximately 350000 migrant

workers from neighbouring countries

work in South Africa. Indirectly two million dependants are supported in this

way. The number of illegal workers is

estimated to be 1,2 million.

Apart from this visible form of interaction, there are contacts at many other

levels which are of vital importance to

South Africa's neighbours. Mention can

be made of vaccines, medical assistance,

and technical assistance in, for example,

the agricultural field.

Thus, the Southern African system is

of such a nature that sanctions against

South Africa will inevitably cause a ripple effect throughout the subcontinent.

The high degree ofinteraction that exists

between South Africa and her neighbours, together with the relative instability in these countries, lends itself to a

general climate of instability.
10
NEIGHBOURS

This could eventually divide South

Africa's neighbours into two camps.

Firstly,those who realise that they cannot survive without South Africa, such as

Swaziland, Lesotho and Malawi.

The second group realises that sanctions against South Africa will hurt

them, yet they use every possible platform to encourage sanctions. Apparently

their argument is either that South

Africa will quietly accept sanctions or

that the international community, and

particularly the West, will come to their

aid.

Countries moving in this direction include Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

This perception is not only shortsighted — it is dangerous. It does not

account for the realities of the subcontinent.

REVOLUTION

Complicating this issue is that some

countries allow the African National

Congress (ANC) the use of bases from

which to operate against South Africa.

Seen from a South African point ofview,

no country can export revolution and at

the same time expect to gain indefinitely

through co-operation.

All countries, including South Africa,

cannot experience conflict and co-operation as two sides of the same coin.

Sanctions will have the greatest

impact on that part of the regional system which is the most unstable. Even

long before the effect ofsanctions is felt to

its full extent in South Africa, countries

like Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe will have to cope with increasing

internal instability.

REPERCUSSIONS

This kind of political instability opens

up new possibilities and repercussions.

The following can be mentioned:

• Mass famine affecting millions of

people.

• An inability by the West to render

effective aid.

• The possibility ofcoups and a renewed

power struggle between the East and

the West.

• As the Soviet Union has already

poured in large quantities of military

hardware into certain Southern African states, of which Angola is the

prime example, further instability

could open up new opportunities for

the USSR.

• The inability of the US Congress to

react strongly in crisessituations could

easily be exploited by the Soviet

Union. The Soviet Union, after all, is

a master ofmanipulation ofcrises situations to its own advantage.

• In such a scenario the continued

supply of Southern Africa's strategic

minerals to the West becomes highly

relevant.

In conclusion: the perception held by

many African and Western politicians

that South Africa alone will suffer as the

result ofsanctions is absolutely incorrect

— this belief displays ignorance «f the

hard realities ofthe subcontinent and its

interdependece and interaction.

/6091

CSO: 3400/641

11
INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS

AFRICAN INTELLECTUALS BLAST AUTHORITARIAN RULE AT FRG FORUM

Frankfurt/Main FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE in German 21 Oct 86 p 5

[Article by vL: "A 'New Wave1 in Africa? Sharp Criticism of One-Party

Systems and Lack of Human Rights"]

[Text] Arnoldshain, 20 Oct—During a symposium at the Arnoldshain Evangelical

Academy the cream of African political science condemned the one-party system

in Africa and the corruption and violations of human rights on their continent

and in their homelands with such intensity that many of the Germans present

believed to have discovered a "new wave" in the thinking of African intellectuals. At the conference, which was also supported by the Volkswagen Foundation, the subject was democracy and one-systems in Africa. This topic has

been not only to a great extent taboo in Africa: In Europe as well there was

apparently no major academic study of the subject in recent years. Now at the

academy a good dozen African college teachers from all over the continent

analyzed the political system of their native states, followed by the criticism

of a German scholar. Joint organizers were the African and German Unions for

Political Science.

Such a conference could not have taken place in any country in Africa according

to Abdul Rahman Babu, one of the leading theoreticians of "African socialism"

who was once a Tanzanian government minister for many years and who was later

put in prison for 6 years without trial by former Tanzanian President Nyerere.

Academics are especially affected by one-party systems and the associated pressure to conform and oppression. On the other hand, African politicians (and,

not infrequently, Western scholars) often argue for the necessity of a oneparty state: It is required in order to avoid unnecessary disruptions to

economic development. In addition, the striving for consensus, which is the

object in the one-party system (intraparty opposition is possible in at least

some African states), is supposedly native to African thought, while a multiparty system is alien to it.

African professors at the symposium regarded these arguments as the excuses of

politicians who profit from such a system. Hardly another "profession" is so

lucrative in many African countries as that of a legislative representative,

who, on the other hand, occasionally achieves his certain nomination by bribing

the party bosses or indeed the head of state. Two-thirds of all African heads

of state owe their position to the military, according to a German Africa-expert, only six (eight with South Africa and Namibia) owe it to free elections

with opposition candidates.

12
The speakers seemed to agree that the system of government is not an automatic

indication of the degree of democracy or of the respect for human rights. A

multiparty system can be more authoritarian than a country with a state party.

According to Duisburg political scientist Peter Meyns, there is an almost inevitable tendency to increasing authoritarianism in many African countries (in

order, an African added, to be able to continue to partake of the benefices

associated with power) and thus to violent change. New ideas can hardly enrich

the system. The one-party system, to be sure, is hardly a unique trait of the

Africans. The president of the Association of African Political Scientists,

the Ugandan Dan Nabudere, reminded in Arnoldshain that in the recent German

past a state party developed out of a liberal democracy.

The strongest criticism of the one-party system came from the Tanzanian Babu.

It is responsible for the fact that today the African populace is living as

beggars and there are many political prisoners. The permanent state of

emergency in most African states and the existence of laws permitting incarceration without a court decree (frequently taken over from the colonial masters)

in almost all countries of the continent are primarily attributable to the oneparty state. Thus, "middle-class society" in Africa has been effectively destroyed—the activity of labor unions and other independent groups, for example.

The West African Ghana under Nkrumah was the first African state which introduced a unity party; it is, however, one of the most unstable African states.

That already proves, according to Babu, that the argument, a one-party system

is necessary for stable and steady development, is wrong,

There were differing opinions in Arnoldshain on the part of certain African and

German political scientists as to whether primarily internal social causes

(state structure, economic policy) or external influences are decisive in the

unanimously-acknowledged "crisis of Africa." The Hamburg Africanist Rainer

Tetzlaff contradicted the thesis, propounded by Nabudere (but at least indirectly by other Africans in their specific examples), that colonialism prevented the emergence of a middle class and thus substantially contributed to

the decline. Such arguments, which sought to place the blame on others, reminded him of the same arguments by Latin Americans 15 years ago: An elitist

ideology is being developed there—"We cannot do anything, we are completely

dependent on European colonization"—which is intended to serve as an excuse

for one's own failure.

13238/12859

CSO: 3420/3

13
ANGOLA

SAVIMBI ON VISIT TO FRANCE, PORTUGUESE VISA REQUEST

Lisbon TEMPO in Portuguese 30 Oct 86 p 8

/Interview with Jonas Savimbi, leader of the Angolan_armed opposition, in Paris,

by correspondent Custodia Domingues; date not given/

/Text/ Paris—Jonas Savimbi, leader of the Angolan armed opposition, concluded

that his visit to France is "a guerrilla victory," considering the conversations

he had in Paris with French political leaders who promised to "aid his movement.1

Jonas Savimbi, the head of UNITA, went first to Strasbourg where he attended the

European Parliament at the invitation of a group of deputies of the Right. He

then went to Paris where he is at the present time and was received by Jacques

Chaban-Delmas, president of the National Assembly, Jacques Toubon, secretary

general of the RPR (Rally for the Republic), and Francois Leotard, current minister of French culture. These meetings resulted in protests by Angola. The

Luanda government said that it would like to "take action" against France and

this was confirmed in Paris by Angolan Ambassador Luis de Almeida who protested

to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs about Jonas Savimbi's visit.

In an interview held in Paris the leader of the Angolan armed opposition answered a few questions submitted to him by our newspaper.

TEMPO: How do you explain your coming to France?

Savimbi: I was invited by deputies to visit the European Parliament and I took

advantage of that opportunity to come to Paris to explain UNITA's struggle, our

objectives and, especially, Angola's place within the African context and within

the context of relations between Africa and Europe.

TEMPO: There was talk of your possible visit to Portugal. Is there any truth

to that rumor?

Savimbi: I would like very much to go to Portugal. We have many sympathizers

there, I speak Portuguese, I have been brought up in the Portuguese culture and

I would be able to express myself better in Portugal than in France. But since

I am not a pirate, I would not go to Portugal clandestinely. I would go only if

I had a visa. As of now I do not have a visa and therefore I shall not go, to

my own sorrow and to that of many sympathizers.

14
TEMPO: Does this mean that you have made an official request for a visa?

Savimbi: Certainly. I contacted the Portuguese Embassy in Paris which had no

instructions; and without instructions it is impossible to obtain a visa.

TEMPO: Your arrival here coincided with the presence of President Mario Soares

in Paris. Did you happen to meet?

Savimbi: I did not meet with President Mario Soares. The president of the republic represents all the people and, above all, he must respect the diplomatic

relations which exist between Portugal and the Luanda government; in short, it

was just a coincidence.

TEMPO: Do you consider this visit to Paris positive?

Savimbi: I am glad that I made this trip. There are many things which cannot

be revealed at the present time for obvious reasons, but my trip to Paris yielded

the desired results. I hope that within the next few months the promised aid,

particularly on the political and diplomatic level, will be confirmed and made

a reality.

TEMPO: What are your thoughts concerning the death of Mozambican President Samora Machel?

Savimbi: I am experiencing a feeling of frustration. I knew President Machel

when he was a Frelimo leader and, despite appearances, he represented^ moderate

force within the Front Line group. He had a good grasp of Mozambique's problems

which are different from those of Angola. He was about to be persuaded to carry

on a dialogue with UNITA to create a harmonious atmosphere between the MPLA and

UNITA. The area in which we live in southern Africa has a very shaky foundation.

The figure of President Machel gave reason to hope that perhaps we could reach a

level of understanding, thus achieving all the objectives which Africans desire

as, for example, the elimination of apartheid.

8568

CSO: 3442/43

15
ANGOLA

JONAS SAVIMBI DENIED PORTUGUESE VISA

Lisbon EXPRESSO in Portuguese 1 Nov 86 p 5

/Article by J. Henriques Coimbra/

/Text/ Despite having a diplomatic passport, Jonas Savimbi did not receive an

entrance visa into Portugal from the Lisbon government. This forced the UNITA

leader at the last moment, Wednesday, to rearrange the schedule of his lengthy

stay in Europe where he had come at the invitation of many members of the European Parliament, one of whom, moreover, represented Portugal's PSD.

Having renounced his original plan to visit Great Britain upon leaving France,

the Angolan rebel leader left Paris for West Germany; from here he expects to

return to the military base of Jamba in southeastern Angola, probably by way of

Johannesburg. Moreover, according to reliable sources, Jonas Savimbi's "diplomatic passport" was given to him specifically for this European sojourn by the

South African Government which is supporting UNITA in its struggle against the

Luanda regime.

The Lisbon government declined to give the press any explanation concerning the

severity of its decision in view of alleged steps taken by UNITA to obtain the

visa in Paris. This gave observers the impression that Portugal's "diplomatic

attitude" was aimed at safeguarding the proclaimed good relations with Luanda—

at a time, moreover, of apparent "consolidation"—sacrificing the opinion of

many social democrats "and even of those who pontificate at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," as a well-placed source told us, who would look favorably on the

"opening" of Portuguese diplomacy "to the leader of one of the factions struggling for power in Angola."

Despite being called "terrorist" by leftist deputies of the European Parliament

who succeeded to some extent in dampening the impact of the UNITA leader's visit, Jonas Savimbi was unaffectedly received in Paris by highly placed French officials who considered him "a courageous and realistic member of the resistance"

(to quote Charles Millon of the UDF) and managed to obtain an audience with a

minister and even with Jacques Toubon, considered one of the men closest to

Jacques Chirac.

Chester Crocker, U.S. undersecretary of state for African affairs, also received

the Angolan rebel and reassured him that the United States is supporting his

struggle against Luanda.

16
Savimbi: "Government of National Union"

Savimbi succeeded in giving Europe the message that Angola is not a Moscow satellite, "even though there are 45,000 Cubans, 2,500 Soviets, 2,000 Koreans and

3,000 members of the Portuguese Communist Party on Angolan territory."

In his diplomatic offensive—tested a short time ago by inviting a considerable

number of Portuguese to come to Jamba, some even promising to be spokesmen for

Savimbi's propaganda in Lisbon—the revel leader assumed the role of "messenger

of peace," advocating the need for conversations with the MPLA for reconciliation in Angola starting with a cease-fire arrangement which would lead to a dialogue for the establishment of a government "of national union."

Despite Savimbi's having recognized in Paris that the Pretoria regime is "odious"

and "humiliating," none of the black countries of southern Africa considered this

of any importance; there were not even any serious protests concerning his having been received at the European Parliament with a great deal of fanfare by

various news media.

In Maputo where many African leaders were mourning the death of Samora Machel,

those same leaders limited themselves to condemning "France and other Western

nations for having permitted the traitor, Savimbi, to visit their countries."

8568

CSO: 3442/43

17
ANGOLA

CONTROVERSY OVER LIST OF 'TERRORIST' MINISTERS ANALYZED

Lisbon EXPRESSO in Portuguese 18 Oct 86 p 4

/Text/ Luis de Almeida, Angolan ambassador in Paris, assured EXPRESSO this week

that it was the French authorities who told him that the list which gave rise to

the formal questioning of two Angolan ministers by the French police "was furnished by the Portuguese Government."

A source from the French Ministry of Interior—from a department which, according to a spokesman from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, now has the file on the

incident in question—declared in turn: "The Angolan ambassador can say, assert

or do what he wishes. We have no information on that case."

It will be recalled that ministers Henrique Santos and Fernando Franca Van Dunen

were interrogated on 22 and 26 September upon their arrival in Paris. According

to news circulated in Lisbon last week—and which, at the time we went to press,

had not appeared in any newspaper in France and Angola—the action of the French

police was allegedly motivated by the fact that its computers included the names

of RPA's ministers of industry and justice under the classification of "Portuguese terrorists."

Portugal had allegedly been asked to furnish a list, "drawn up in 1961 by the

PIDE/DGS" and delivered to the French authorities subsequent to a meeting of EEC

ministers of interior held in London on 25 September, for the ratification of

certain cooperative measures to be taken by the 12 member nations in the struggle against terrorism.

No Formal Protest After All

In addition, Ambassador Luis de Almeida told EXPRESSO emphatically this week

that in his opinion it was the responsibility of the Portuguese Government to

furnish the aforementioned list "within the scope of the London meeting," but he

admitted that he could not say for sure whether the list was delivered by Eurico

de Melo or by "some die-hard from colonial times."

As for the list itself—which he claims to have seen—the Angolan diplomatic

representative in the French capital went on to say that it contains "the names

of Angolans who were in Lisbon in April 1961," not including any Portuguese citizens or citizens from any other former colony. Luis de Almeida also stated

18
that no Angolan official representative had any problems in any other European

capital. "Moreover," he said, "the minister of industry came from Athens and

the minister of justice from Brussels."

The Angolan ambassador also asserted that he had received "instructions from

Luanda to protest to the French MNE" as well as to Luis Gaspar da Silva, Portuguese diplomatic representative in Paris, a procedure which some journalists in

Lisbon termed a formal protest.

Informed of this assertion by EXPRESSO, Gaspar da Silva claimed to be "amazed"

that his Angolan counterpart had allegedly lodged a protest. He also stressed

that "relations are magnificent between the two embassies and ambassadors at

both the official and private levels" and that in this connection "all matters

of mutual interest" are discussed.

"Like the excellent diplomat that he is, Luis de Almeida knows that he cannot do

this," said the Portuguese ambassador in Paris.

Meanwhile, in Lisbon the MNE continues to assert that it has received no formal

protest from the Angolan and French governments, while the MAI limited its reaction to a mild denial of certain statements published in the news media.

8568

CSO: 3442/43

19
BOTSWANA

GABORONE'S IMPORTANCE IN AVIATION GROWING

Cape Town THE ARGUS in English 6 Nov 86 p 23

[Text]

THE-growing importance of the new

Gaborone airport as a possible adjunct to Jan Smuts airport was demonstrated yesterday when a Kenya Airways Boeing 707 landed to inaugurate

a once-weekly service from Nairobi by

way of Harare.

Zambian Airways, which have operated

irregular flights in the past, also flew in

yesterday with a Boeing 737 on what will.

be a once-weekly service from Lusaka with

this type of aircraft. South African Airways .

and Air Zimbabwe are also operating regular services to Gaborone.

From next April British Caledonian will

operate a twice-weekly service to Gaborone with Douglas DC10 aircraft. UT

French Airlines is negotiating for freight

traffic rights to Gaborone but is not contemplating a passenger service "at the moment", a spokesman said.

The Royal Swazi airline operated regular flights to Gaborone from Matsapha until last week, when they .were suspended,

apparently because of limited demand on

this route.

BEFORE the new Sir Seretse Khama international airport was opened in December, 1984, South African Airways was

the only foreign airline to operate to Botswana. SAA flew small turboprop aircraft

into the old Gaborone airport but the short

runway and inadequate passenger handling

facilities and small passenger traffic made

it unattractive to other foreign airlines.

This has changed with the opening of the

new airport, which coincided with Botswana's diamond-based economic boom and

the threat of foreign airlines being barred

from Jan Smuts airport by international

sanctions against South Africa.

The traffic through Gaborone is likely to

increase sharply if sanctions close Jan

Smuts to major international carriers. At

present passengers flying from Gaborone

can connect with overseas flights from

Harare, Lusaka and Nairobi.

British Caledonian's service will provide

the first direct link with Europe but others

are likely to follow if sanctions restrict direct traffic to Johannesburg.

/6091

CSO: 3400/639

20
BOTSWANA

ELECTRICITY LINK WITH ZAMBIA

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 24 Oct 86 p 5

[Text] A CONSORTIUM of Brown

Boveri Zimbabwe, Brown Boveri

Canada and Powerlines Central

Africa also from Zimbabwe, has

been awarded a $4 million contract for the interconnection of

electric power between southern

Zambia and northern Botswana.

This project is one of many of the

Sadcc region's power interconnection programmes estimated to cost

over $64 million over the next five

years.

The contract is in two parts. The

first stage involves the design, supply, delivery, construction and

erecting, testing and commissioning

about.16km of 66 kV transmission

line from the existing line in Zambia,-to a new substation at Kasane,

Botswana, AI 1 kV distribution line

of about 35km that crosses, the

Zambezi River at Kazungula will be

joined to the existing 11 kV line in

Botswana.

The second and last stage is for

the design, delivery, construction,

testing and commissioning of a tapoffsubstation at Kazungula in Zambia (66/11 kV. 1.6 MVA), and

another 66/11 kV 5 MVA substation at Kasane.

Most of the financing is being

provided by the Canadian International Development Agency (Cida),

and the Finnish Development Agency (Finida). will supply the

transformers.

The whole project will be coordinated by a Canadian engineering

company. Shawninigan Lavalin Inc.

specialists in electric power supply.

The projects manager for the company in Zimbabwe, Mr John Williams, told the Gazette that this

' project will enable Botswana to uti-

. Use Zambia's excess electric power.

This is in line with Sadcc's energy programme to strengthen regional cooperation in electric power

through the interconnection of electricity networks or grid sections to

guarantee a more rational utilisation

of the region's energy resources.

Commenting on the project, the

contracts manager of Brown Boveri

Zimbabwe. Mr C D Frizcll. said:

"We are pleased to get this contract

and we think we are capable of doing this type of work in this

region."

Mr F.rizell said that most of the

materials needed to carry out the

project will be procured or

manufactured locally. They include

steel towers, fencing, lighting, civil

engineering and probably some control cabinets.

The powerlincs will be supplied

by Powerlines Central Africa, and

Brown Boveri Canada will act as the

purchasing and liaison agency in the

country.

The physical work is expected to

start early next year, and should be

completed within six to eight

months. "Brown Boveri Zimbabwe

will build the two substations."' Mr

Frizell said:

/9274

CSO! 3400/614

21
BOTSWANA

BRIEFS

BIRTH RATE STATISTICS-^Gaborone—Botswana's fertility rate is one of the

highest in the world, the country's Central Statistics Office has disclosed.

The figures state that the crude birth rate is 48,7 per a thousand people.

The report said a contributory factor was the inadequacy of family planning

but added that the rate would diminish with increased education. The mortality

rate is one of the lowest in Africa, The crude death rate was 13.9 per thousand t the report said. The life expectancy was 52 years for a man and 59 for

a woman. The report said there were 89 males for every 100 females in the

country, [Text] [Cape Town THE ARGUS in English 7 Nov 86 p 6] /9274

CSOJ 3400/614

22
BURKINA

EDITORIALIST RESPONDS TO TOGO CHARGES

Ouagadougou SIDWAYA in French 6 Oct 86 p 12

[Editorial by Arzouma Zampaligre: "At the Neocolonial Breast"]

[Text] Twenty-six years after the states of France's former colonial empire

attained political independence, is French-speaking Africa—which needs to go

beyond its own regional and subregional organizations, despite a legendary

tradition of pride, and re-tie the umbilical cord to "the mother mainland"

in order to get itself out of trouble—still unweaned?

The mind boggles at the events that recently occurred in Togo, the landing of

the "allies" immediately thereafter, and the jumble of accusations against

Ghana and Burkina Faso by the Togolese authorities. One wonders. How much

longer will certain African states continue to suckle at the neo-colonial

breast?

The "apostle of peace," he who fought and overcame the bear, calls in and

deploys foreign troops armed to the teeth on his sovereign soil, in total

disregard for the dignity of the Togolese people.

A so-called cosmopolitan commando numbering several tens of elements—many of

them Togolese and trained, it seems, in Burkina—are said to have chosen the

longest and most difficult route to re-enter Togo, passing through Ghana and

moving in on Lome with great display via the only road linking this city (on

the border) with Ghana.

It took no more than that for cries of "invasion" to go up and for another

invasion out of all proportion to the first to be tolerated. And troops were

brought in by air, sea and land, with the most sophisticated equipment in

order to save a government that is treading on the people and the national

Army (to whom that noble task would legally fall). Alas, for a long time now,

in certain countries where even soap is suspect, no one knows to keep dirty

linen within the family.

What is most surprising (but not unheard of) is that it is the highly socialist

French presidency (and not the very rightist French prime ministry) which is

playing biased intervener in a domestic quarrel 5,000 kilometers away. It

cries "terrorism" and quarantines everyone before letting them into France.

23
It is the one who invades the others—without a visa, of course—with a peaceful

and distraught people looking on, not understanding what is happening to them,

they whose president received the peace prize.

Our surprise does not end here, as, bypassing the CEAO [West African Economic

Community] and the ANAD [Non-Agression and Defense Aid Agreement], the Entente

Council, ECOWAS [Economic Community of West African States] and the OAU

[Organization of African Unity], an appeal is made to Zaire who rushes to

dispatch "rescuers" to a decadent petty king while Angola, next-door, has

never been worthy of a single gesture of good-neighborliness, although it is

confronted daily with strikes from UNITA*s men without a country and the

murderous incursions of South Africa's racial government.

As for the Togolese authorities, who noisily rejected the assertions by

Amnesty International, they have announced the release of prisoners jailed

several months ago for having been "caught in the act" of planting bombs.

The explanation: A mistake; the real criminals are among those "caught in the

act" of a coup d'etat attempt. Is the confusion being used to empty the jails

and have Amnesty International's case dismissed so as to play host, above all

suspicion, to the coming France-Africa summit which is so flattering to the

General?

It is an upside-down world: Countries like Burkina that seek to extend a

hand to those thirsting for justice, equality, liberty and peace, are drawn

into deliberately fabricated conflict scenarios. Because oppression has

lasted too long for the peoples of Africa who are weary of resignation and

on the verge of finding the path to their own salvation, the imperialist camp,

aided in its task by local potentates, is determined to contain this storm

while the muffled rumbling moves ever closer.

Untroubled, Burkina Faso is determined to achieve the objectives of its

revolution through its first PQDP [Five-Year Plan for Progress]. Provided it

is guaranteed peace. Once things have calmed down in Togo, "the Togolese

authorities will rediscover a Burkina Faso true to itself, developing good

relations with the fraternal people of Togo," said Captain Blaise Compaore.

12413/12851

CSO: 3419/12

24
BURKINA

MILITARY JOINS AGRICULTURAL CAMPAIGN

Ouagadougou SIDWAYA in French 8 Oct 86 p 9

[Excerpt] Soldiers in the fields. Under other skies, it might seem afairy

tale. And yet for two consecutive growing seasons, it has been a reality m

revolutionary Burkina. The proof is that four areas are being farmed by the

military. They are divided between the south and the southwest of Faso.

They are:

1. the Koumbo unit, in Sissili, 64 km from Leo;

2. the Dimolo unit in Poni, 50 km from Gaoua;

3. the Wolonkoto unit, in Comoe, 18 km from Banfora; and

4. the Djigouera unit in Kenedougou, 33 km from Orodara.

Among these units, 153.09 hectares of various crops have been cultivated. The

total area is subdivided into rice (21.6 hectares), corn (75.61 hectares),

sorghum (30 hectares), peanuts (4.2 hectares) and niebe [beans] (21.68 hectares).

Rice is grown at the sites of Wolonkoto and Djigouera. Corn is grown at all

of them. Sorghum and peanuts are grown only at the Koumbo site. Niebe is grown

at both Koumbo and Dimolo. For the units of Koumbo and Dimolo, there are 34

oxen. The two other units are in the process of buying their own, which wxll

make farming with draft animals the rule at all sites. All efforts are also

being made to introduce more effective farming methods and equipment at all

sites.

Despite problems of all types (logistical problems, social problems arising

from the presence of certain soldiers' families at the sites, partial flooding

of the fields at Dimolo and Djigouera for lack of a geophysical study of the

land cultivated), all of the unit commanders are optimistic on the outcome

of the current growing season, unless nature proves them wrong. At Wolonkoto

(Comoe), the warrant officer at the revolutionary air base, Herve Bambara,

takes his hat off to the conscripts of the People's Service who came to back

up their elders. At all the other sites, the efforts provided by these

conscripts of the assault force in the economic battle are appreciated. At

the farming sites of the People's National Service (PNS) in Kadro (Nahoari),

Diepo (Poni) and Boulon (Comoe), optimism on the outcome of this season is strong.

25
The farming units are far-removed, you will have noticed, from the seats of

provincial governments and even from the closest urban center. Thus, a film

projection crew from the high command of the People's Armed Forces visited all

of the farming sites of the People's Armed Forces between 6 and 26 September,

with stops at the PNS sites of Kadro and Diepo. The films shown dealt with

disarmament and with agriculture—the priority of priorities.

12413/12851

CSO: 3419/12

26
GUINEA-BISSAU

BAFATA MOVEMENT OUTLINES GOALS

Lisbon 0 DIABO in Portuguese 18 Nov 86 p 17

I Textl "To combat the totalitarian regime of the single party, to liberate the

political prisoners and to put a stop to the persecution": these are among the

goals of the Bafata Movement, comprising opponents of the PAIGC, which has been

in power in Guinea-Bissau for 11 years.

This new African anticommunist resistance movement had existed in secret in

fuinean territory for about 2 years, but had meanwhile set up missions m Europe.

Its president ^medical Dr Domingos Gomes, former director of the Simao Mendes

Hospital in Bissau. Accompanied by other movement leaders, Dr Gomes held a

press conference last week in Lisbon.

In addition to the trial of the defendants charged with the conspiracy of

17 nnt-ohpr 1985 and their subsequent death sentence, the movement denounced the

P^ificS crimes which nave occurred in Guinea-Bissau both before and after the

overthrow of Nino Cabral. "The apparent change brought about by Nino Vieira's

accession to power did not improve anything," stressed the Bafata Movement,

which indicates, among its goals«

"To guarantee liberty for Guineans to participate in collective work, recognizing Sat is worthy and legitimate in their traditions. It is necessary to

establish justice, so that liberation will not be worse than slavery, so as to

put an end to the civil discouragement reflected in the mass emigration of

professionals and cadres, of whom so much was expected. It is necessary to

guarantee freedom of the individual, so we may demand of each citizen the contribution which he owes to the nation and to the fatherland."

6362

CSO» 3442/38

27
GUINEA-BISSAU

LUIS CABRAL SAID TO HAVE NO TIES WITH ANTI-VIEIRA MOVEMENT

Lisbon EXPRESSO in Portuguese 15 Nov 86 p 14

[Text] Luis Cabral, former president of Guinea-Bissau, is not involved with the

movement in opposition to Nino Vieira, which was publicly unveiled this week in

Lisbon under the title "Guinea-Bissau Resistance/Bafata Movement."

The movement proposes to engage in political activity leading to the establishment of a multiparty democracy, dedicated to a state of law in Guinea-Bissau.

Among the proximate causes for the appearance of this oppositionist political

organization in Guinea-Bissau, according to Dr Domingos Gomes, president of the

movmment, is the case of Paulo Correia, former vice president of Guinea-Bissau,

which culminated in the execution of Correia and five other defendants accused of

involvement in an alleged coup d'etat attempt.

The president of the Bafata Movement told EXPRESSO that his organization had no

ties whatever with former president Luis Cabral [or] with Rafael Barbosa, first

president of the PAIGC, who is currently under house arrest in the south of

Guinea-Bissau.

The path of dialogue advocated by this organization would involve negotiation with

the present government in power, although the Bafata Movement considers it a

prior condition that the foreign troops, military advisors and presidential guard

(Soviets and Cubans) be invited to withdraw from Guinean territory.

The leadeis of this organization told newsmen that they do not maintain relations

with the UNITA and RENAMO rebel movements, but they believe that, in Angola's

case, the path of dialogue should be taken between the MPLA and the UNITA.

Domingos Gomes said he was against "apartheid" and that he supported all South

African movements in opposition to the Pretoria regime.

The economic and social situation continues to deteriorate in Guinea-Bissau, where

the Fourth PAIGC Congress has just ended. Among the most significant decisions to

come out of that meeting is the change in the party label, which will become the

PAIG/PC (African Party for Guinean Independence/Party of Cabral). This decision

is in response to complaints from the Cape Verdean leaders, who criticize the

Bissau regime for keeping the label PAIGC, in which the C stood for Cape Verde.

28
Bissau's acquiescance to Cape Verde's demands could permit a rapprochement

between the two countries.

Oddly enough, the "Bafata Movement" was also demanding the elimination of the

reference to Cape Verde in the label of the party with which it now seeks to

negotiate a change in the Guinean regime.

6362

CSOj 3442/38

29
CHINESE ADVISERS TO HELP INCREASE FOOD PRODUCTION

Nairobi THE KENYA TIMES in English 16 Oct 86 p 12

LESOTHO

[Text] \GRICULTURAL advisers

trom China are playing a '

key role in helping increase

food self-suffiency in this

liny mountain kingdom

surrounded by South Africa.

Thirty Chinese experts

have taken over an

agricultural advisory role

previously fulfilled byTaiwanese on five small

farms in the rugged terrain

that makes up this country,

one of the world's poorest

nations.

Lesotho, with less than

two kilometres of railway

line and.large tracts of rocky

mountainous terrain, is

totally dependent on South

Africa for revenue gained

from migrant workers and

•also for foodstuffs. }

In January, an Economic"

Blockade of Lesotho" by

South Africa, which accused

it of harbouring guerrillas

from the outlawed African

National Congress IANC).

was followed quickly by a

military coup against premier

Chief Leabua Jonathan.

South Africa has no

diplomatic ties with

communist countries. North

Korea, as well as with;

western countries.

Relations with North

Korea soured after Chiet

Jonathan -was ousted and

replaced by a military

government more friendly

to Pretoria. His opponents

accused North Korea of

training and influencing his

youth brigade, which they

said terrorised large sectors

of the population.

Since then, the new

-government has-begun talks

with South Korea. But all

this has not disrupted cordial

relations with China, whose

advisers_ are popular

according to . many

Lesothans,

When the Taiwanese were

asked to leave Lesotho in

1983 they had less than

three hectares (six acres)

under cultivation at the

main project on the outskirts

of the capital Maseru, located

a few hundreds meters from

the South African border.

They concentrated on

growing mainly maize,

sorghum and wheat. The

Chinesei advisers have,

however, extended the farm*

/9274

CSO. 3400/614

30
LESOTHO

POLICE TO PROBE NORTH KOREAN CONNECTION TO RECENT KILLINGS

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 19 Nov 86 p 15

[Text] The Star's Africa News Service

One of the areas the Lesotho

police will examine as they try

to unravel the mystery of the

latest killings in the mountain

kingdom is the North Korean

connection.

Both Mr Desmond Sixishe,

former Minister of Information, and Mr Vincent Makhele,

former Minister of Foreign Affairs, had close links with.

North Korea and with the

horde of North Korean diplomats and "advisers" the Jonathan Government welcomed

into Lesotho.

Mr Sixishe and Mr Makhele

and their wives were abducted

from a relative's house in

Roma on Saturday night and

then shot on a lonely road

about 25 km away.

The North Koreans have

been regarded as a sinister influence by many conservative

Basotho ever since former

Prime Minister Chief Leabua

Jonathan allowed them to get a

toehold in the country three

years ago.

While the military government which ousted Chief Jonathan in January has not severed the diplomatic relations

that Chief Jonathan established

with the North Koreans, it appears to have adopted a disctintly and deliberately cool attitude to them.

Knowlegeable observers believe the government of General Metsing Lekhanya would

have no regrets if the North

Koreans broke off the relationship.

They have become moribund, however, since the Maseru Government expelled

three North Koreans diplomats

earlier this year after accusing

them of interfering in Le-

' sotho's affairs.

The North Korean Embassy

was abandoned and the rented

house in which it had operated

reverted to its owner:

The military government has

revived diplomatic relations

with South Korean.

Relations between the two

countries were suspended when

North Korea was allowed in.

Seoul is now represented on

a non-residential basis by its

ambassador in Nairobi, who recently presented his cresdentials in Maseru.

Pyongyang's embassy had

been opened in response in a

shift in Chief Jonathan's attitude away from Lesotho's traditional Western allies and towards the communist block.

He opened relations with

several Eastern Bloc countries

and with Beijing (Peking).

The North Koreans responded energetically, setting up an

embassy and quickly becoming

involved in Lesotho's domestic

affairs.

They provided weapons and

training for the Youth League

of Chief Jonathan's Basuto National Party, and were credited

with turning it into an aggressive force that was allegedly

killing its opponents and challenging the authority of both

the police and army when the

military leader stepped in and

ousted Jonathan.

31
/9274

CSO! 3400/614

The coup is believed by independent observers to have been

sparked largely by the North

Koreans' activities and alliance

with leftist elements in Jonathan's party — including Mr Sixishe and Mr Makhele.

They have been accused of

plotting to use the armed

Youth League to neutralise the

army and overthrow Jonathan's government and replace it

with a leftist one oriented towards the communist bloc.

The monarchy would also

have been overthrown.

Mr Sixishe, Mr Makhele and

the other leftists were detained

after the coup and then released. ._

But there is evidence suggesting that even after that

they continued to have clandestine dealings with the North

Koreans.

They were accused by the

military government of continuing with political activities in

defiance of a government ban

and shortly afterwards the

North Korean diplomats were

expelled.

North Koreans have also

played a major role in Zimbabwe.

Their association with Zimbabwe goes back to the pre-independence guerilla war riavs

when Mr Robert Mugabe's

Zanla force received military

aid and training from that

country and from Communist

China.

The North Koreans were

quick to establish an embassy

in Harare after independence,

and their military co-operation

continued when North Korean

instructors were brought in to

train the army's Fifth Brigade.

The unit gained notoriety for

the ruthless methods it adopted

in Matabeleland to put down

support for dissidents among

the civilian population.

After the Matabeleland operation, which" gained the country

considerable adverse publicity,

the brigade was retrained by

national army and British instructors.

32
MADAGASCAR

DROUGHT REPORTEDLY KILLS 50,000

Durban THE DAILY NEWS in English 24 Nov 86 p 8

[Text]

PARIS: Madagascar is in the grip of;

famine which has killed 50 000 this

year, the liberal Le Monde reported

today.

The south is worst hit and 300 000

people have left the region of Androy

to flee the drought.

Le Monde Special Envoy Laurent

Zecchini discovered there was "a wall

of silence" surrounding the famine.

An international charity worker told

him: "The Government is doing what it

can but it is totally overwhelmed by

the extent of the famine."

He said that the death toll from the

famine could not be verified, but the

figures were supplied to him by Monja

Jaona, the main opposition leader. .

Foreign Service

Before independence in 1961 the1

French Colony of Madgascar was able

to supply its own needs in food and

even exported rice to neighbouring

countries. In those days there were

about 50 000 French nationals compared to 18 000 today.

In 1986 Madagascar will import

62 000 tons of wheat and 110 000 tons of

The Le Monde correspondent said

the Government needed probably an

extra quarter of a million tons of rice,

the country's staple diet, but no foreign

exchange was available.

He said the Indian ocean island was

"drifting".

President Didier Ratsiraka has been

following a socialist, even Marxist, policy since he became dictator in 1975

but "it has been a failure".

The Le Monde reporter said the failure was caused "by a dogmatic refusal to take into account the element

of profit in running enterprises, a general state ownership everywhere and a

nonexistant agricultural policy".

In addition President Ratsiraka's declared aim to drag Madagascar out of

the Western, that is French, zone of influence had resulted in total chaos.

Zecchini said that it was a mistake to

look on Madagascar as a Soviet satellite, as President Ratsiraka had refused to let Moscow use the port of

Diego Suarez as a naval base or to

build radar communication networks

on the island.

But unfortunately for Madagascar s

image, the Government did not hesitate to support the Soviet Union in the

United Nations.

"Despite the introduction of a new

code of investment, foreign capitalists

are not rushing to put money into Madagascar where society remains deeply

influenced by a pseudo-socialist ideology. Famine is increasing in the south,

industrial production is falling and

there is general insecurity. Madagascar today is paying very dearly for its

past errors."

/6091

CSO: 3400/639

33
MALI

TRAORE TRYING TO HOLD DIVERSE ELEMENTS TOGETHER

London AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL in English 29 Oct 86 pp 2-4

[Text]

President Moussa Traore may soon be asked to cool

his recent enthusiasms for the Soviet Union and its

allies and urged instead to take the bitter economic

medicine prescribed by the International Monetary

Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The impending

visit to Bamako of President Francois Mitterrand of

France, scheduled for the middle of November,

follows a steady increase of French interest in this

former colony and by a steady build-up of French

military forces. Joint operations involving French

and Malian troops earlier this year have been given

a fresh impetus by the war with Burkina Faso which

lasted only six days between Christmas last year and

New Year's day but which continues to dominate

the political calendar.

The fighting, over a disputed border in the

Abacher district, added to the country's desperate

economic problems, complicated by drought and

now by locusts. Six months ago, the president

warned that the IMF/IBRD austerity measures had

been imposed partially and yet had not worked. It

is also admitted that the decision in June 1984 to

abandon the Malian franc and return to the franc

zone has also been a disaster. Mali's re-admission

to the Union mone'taire ouest-africain (UMOA)

doubled prices at a stroke and at the same time

halved the value of savings and investments. There

are fears that the country's political system is not

sufficiently strong to cope with the unrest that is

expected when the austerity is imposed in full.

Moussa Traore, in power now for 18 years, is

worried principally about the party he founded in

1979, the ruling Union dimocratique du peuple

malien, (UDPM). At a special session of the party's

National Council, the executive organ of the party

between congresses, the president warned that the

cadres must accept blame for failing to gain the

confidence of the people and for failing to mobilise

them in the fight against the country's economic

predicament. In its seven undistinguished years, the

president implied, the UDPM had failed to win the

hearts of its own officials, never mind the workers,

farmers and professionals it was supposed to involve

and represent. And all this despite the fact that

having a party card was essential for promotion in

the civil service for winning a scholarship - especially

to study overseas, though students might get away

with only belonging to the youth league - and even

in some areas for buying food from government-run

shops.

The principal fruit of Traore's worries about the

political future has in fact been a purge of the party,

rather than the opposition. All the members of the

key, the Central Executive Bureau (BEC), have been

replaced this year. The purge has reached parts of

the party apparatus previously thought to be beyond

the grasp of the president, up to and including Gen.

Amadou Baba Diarra, hitherto unassailable as the

number two in the government. In position since

1971, Diarra had been ths sole surviving member of

the group which seized power with Traore in 1968

and his fall from grace came despite his considerable

popularity with the army. All earlier attempts to get

rid of him on charges of scandal, corruption or

whatever had all come to nought and indeed, at the

last party congress, a cabal led by friends of the

president had come close to unseating Diarra from

his post as joint secretary-general, only to be checked

when senior officers quietly reminded Traore that the

unity of the military establishment required Diarra's

political survival. Diarra is widely believed to be a

34
strong advocate of French interests and this, combined with the distractions of his large business involvements, has slowly chipped away at his position.

He is now felt to be nearer the edge of disgrace than

ever before.

The president's purge of the party has been followed, however, by other purges which reflect the

government's alarm in other quarters. The army's

unimpressive conduct in the war against Burkina

Faso led to dismissals and arrests. Gen. Boukari

Sangare, armed forces chief of staff, and Col. Koke

Dembele, chief of army staff, were both detained in

the aftermath of the Christmas war. Sangare was

downgraded to colonel and forcibly retired, while

Dembele was dismissed. Gen. Missa Kone, who had

been a member of the junta which seized power on

19 November 1968, and who held the post of director

of building and construction for the army lost his

job, too. Col. Mohamadou Keita, gendarmerie chief

of staff and Col. Sekou Dounbia, inspector-general

of the army, were also retired, though these last two

still hold office in the UDPM. The precise reasons

for these demotions and dismissals were never spelled

out but public opinion demanded that someone be

held visibly accountable for the disastrous retreat of

Malian forces and for blunders like the abandonment

to the Burkinabe troops of perfectly serviceable

tanks

Junior officers were subsequently promoted to fill

the gaps in the military hierarchy caused both by

the dismissals and the fighting. Only two officers

were gazetted killed in action but it is believed that

casualties were in fact more serious, in military as

in civilian circles. The new chief of general staff,

however, is the former interior minister, Col.

Ibrahim Sylla, recalled from his post as ambassador

to Algeria. Sylla's promotion stills rumours that

he was sent to Algiers to silence allegations of

corruption.

The new chief of gendarmerie staff is Lt.Col.

Kafougouna Kone, a surprising choice since he is. a

tough, no-nonsense paratrooper and the implication

is that he is being transferred to the gendamerie to

restore discipline in the ranks.

Stock cube

The military promotions tighten the links between

the small group of close friends of the president who

now occupy the central posts of the government.

General Sekou Ly, an old crony of Traore, holds

the defence portfolio, the first time since 1978 that

the president has trusted it in other hands. Ly, a

lieutenant at the time of the 1968 coup, is virtually

the only officer who was rapidly promoted since,

despite having had no hand in the events of 19

November. A former mayor of Bamako, he is now

a power in the land. Sekou Ly and Djibril Diallo,

still political secretary of the party, have extensive

business interests, (co-operatives, farming and agroindustrial enterprises). Other businessmen have

important military or governmental partners or backers and the business community as a whole is tightly

bound to the regime through its own organisation,

the Federation nationale des employeurs du Mali.

The president's wife, Mariam Traore, is herself a

successful and prominent entrepreneur with a particular interest in the grocery and food trade. Her

nickname is 'La cube Maggi', a reference to the

renowned Swiss stock-cube, though hardly a flattering physical comparison.

Friends and political allies of the inner circle

occupy the outer reaches of the party and government apparatus. One of Sekou Ly's proteges, Mbouille Siby, is organisation secretary of the BEC, while

other Ly allies now occupy the cabinet posts of

foreign affairs, education and culture, and sport.

An equally old friend has returned as prime minister.

The job is really nothing more than a co-ordinator

between the various government departments and

cynics see it as a shield to protect Traore from

popular wrath if, as widely expected, there is trouble

in the streets after the next dose of economic belttightening. The post is, of course, held by Dr Mamadou Dembele, a former surgeon who came to politics

late in life as the result of his friendship with Traore.

In 1979, at the time of the creation of the UPDM,

he was nominated as its secretary for external relations. A hard-liner, Dembele is credited with organising the crackdown against the students and teachers'

protests in 1979 and 1980.

Signs that the Traore regime is preparing for

another period of severity are increasing all the

time, and date back to the union challenge to the

government this time last year. The crisis in government finance has led to incessant delays in the

payment of wages and salaries. Civil servants have

to wait so long for their pay that the joke in Bamako

is that the month in Mali is not 30 days but 90 or

even 120. So last December, when September's wages

were nowhere in sight, there had been rumblings of

discontent and talk of a public employees' strike.

On 7 December last year, one of the 12 unions which

make up the UNTM delivered an ultimatum. The

Syndicat national de {'education et de la culture

(SNEC), threatened a two day strike on 19 December

if the money were not found. Other unions promised

support and, to everyone's surprise, the student

movement, to all intents and purposes decapitated

in 1980 with the death of its leader Abdul Karim

35
Kamara, came alive. A pamphlet appeared entitled

'Le Militant de l'UNEEM', a reference to the student

movement whose agitation had led to the closing of

the schools and colleges for two years. Despite

earlier pleas that the state's coffers were empty, the

government found the money and paid the back

salaries.

Traore, however, refused to let the matter drop.

Indeed, after the war, and despite the wave of

popular support for the government that it generated, Traore chose to puncture the bubble of patriotic fervour by counter-attacking the unions. During

the war, the regime's flagging popularity miraculously revived. Malian embassies abroad were besieged with volunteers wanting to fight for their

country against Burkina Faso. Patriotic donations

were the order of the day and Malian merchants

abroad gave 100m CFA. Five times that amount was

sent home by Malians working in the Cote d'lvoire

and there were touching gifts in kind; ten fat bullocks, 107 tons of rice, 100 cartons of butter, 20,000

gallons of petrol and so on. The government encouraged the people's feelings and pleaded for national

unity in the face of the external enemy. But when

the war was over and the imams of Bamako came

to wish the president a happy and prosperous New

Year, Traore, the president to the horror of his

advisers, blurted out that Burkina Faso had sympathisers and fifth columnists inside Mali and that

there had been contacts between the teachers and

the Burkina Faso head of state, Capt. Thomas

Sankara. Attempts to get the president to reconsider

were pointless since the whole thing had gone out

live on Radio Mali.

In an attempt to add substance to the president's

allegations, the police proceeded to make arrests.

Seven people were arrested on suspicion of being in

the pay of the government of Burkina Faso. Two

months later, six of them were charged with insulting

the head of state, rumour-mongering, conspiracy

and harbouring a fugitive.

Despite the presence of a teacher among the accused, evidence of a 'teachers' plot' was difficult to

find and in the end the president confessed to a

gathering of party workers in Banamba that he had

been mistaken and that it was not the teachers after

all but the students who were the traitors and that

some of the culprits were in prison. It is significant

that. Traore unburdened himself of his frustrations

with the union movement at a meeting with religious

leaders for it is in the ranks of traditional muslim

authority that the army finds its civilian buttress.

The marabouts in the countryside retain considerable

influence, particularly since in many constituencies,

the members of parliament are direct political

descendants of the colonial chiefs or 'commandants

de cercle' appointed by the French authorities. The

sherifs of Mioro du Sahel are the president's own

marabouts and spiritual advisers, and have thus

gained an even greater authority in western Mali

than they already had as a result of their descent

from Sheikh Hamallah who clashed with the French

in the 1940s1. The Mioro are represented on the BEC

by their disciple and protege, Bouille Siby, who is

also know to Gen. Ly. One of Siby's colleagues,

Mbaye ag Mohammed, is regarded as pro-consul for

the Firhoun clan, who also have a deputy in the

parliament2. Other important Touareg groups are

represented in the government, including Ahmed

Mohammed Aghamani, the longest serving member

of the government after Traore himself, and Hama

ag Mahmoud, named in June as minister for employment and the civil service. All the old aristocratic

lineages of the north, and their attendant marabouts,

are carefully included in government, as are the

businessmen, whose interests are championed in parliament by men like Sory Konandji and Babo Minta,

both extremely rich entrepreneurs from Segou and

both close to the president. There are, of course,

limits to how much influence businessmen as such

are able to wield. When in 1981 the president of the

businessman's organisation urged his members to

take a more active political role on the grounds that

the politicians were incompetent, he clearly went too

far. Balla Coulibaly was later required to clarify his

words with a radio address retracting his more

radical strictures. Less easily classified are the Islamic

reform movements like the wahabists or, worse,

fundamentalists. The government tries to contain

Islamic protest within the bounds of the Assocation

maliennepour leprogres et l'uniti de l'Islam, a body

run in fact by a senior official from the interior

ministry. Yet the wahabists, in particular, are useful

since they bring in money from Saudi Arabia and

Kuwait. Col Gadaffi of Libya, ever active in this

regard, encourages them, too.

FOOTNOTES

1. Sheikh Hamallah was deported by the Vichy authorities during

the Second World War and died in prison in France in 1943.

2. Firhoun ag Alinsar was the chief of a Touareg clan the

Dulliminden. He fought the French in the north of Mali and died

after a skirmish in 1915.

/6091

CSO: 3400/44 36
MOZAMBIQUE

CHISSANO SAID PREOCCUPIED WITH REBEL ADVANCES

Lisbon SEMANARIO in Portuguese 15 Nov 86 p 48

[Article by Carlos Blanco de Morais; first paragraph is SEMANARIO introduction]

[Text] Despite the East-West solidarity, despite Zimbabwean support, despite the

mutual reaffirmation by Maputo and Pretoria that they will honor the Inkomati

Accord and despite the apparent "pragmatic" image of Chissano, the fact is that

the succession-period truce has ended; RENAMO, with hunger as its ally, is advancing resolutely in the interior.

Joaquim Chissano, Mozambique's new president, has reaffirmed his country's intent

to honor the Inkomati accords, thus following in the footsteps of his predecessor,

Samora Machel. For many people, the statement clearly illustrated the innate

"pragmatism" of the new FRELIMO leader. Still, perhaps except for such as the

Ayatolla Khamenei, it would be difficult for an individual caught on a branch at

the edge of a cliff not to be "pragmatic" if an enemy extended a hand to him.

Bearing in mind that Pretoria will not easily consent to the shipment of Cuban

troops to Maputo, Chissano had no other course but to ask indirectly for the

understanding and support of the Boers, swallowing suspicions arising from the

crash of Machel's plane and his own original opposition to the Inkomati accords.

Although the leader feels it is the primary task of the government to combat those

whom he calls the "armed bandits," the fact is that simple declarations of military intentions and the possible replacement of Sebastiao Mabote (who has been made

the scapegoat for the current troubles) by Armando Panguene as commander of the

army are not enough to restrain a guerrilla who is, as MONDE sees it, traveling

at full tilt.

Deadly Offensive

On 25 September, the Mozambican National Resistance launched an unprecedented

offensive at various points in the country, resulting in the fall of several

citS which are still in rebel hands today. Mutarara, Caia, Milange, Gile,

Nametil and Mueda may have been occupied by RENAMO, since their fall was confirmed in Maputo be several ranking officers of the FRELIMO. The rebels also

claim to have destroyed Zumbo and the garrison at Vila Machado, on the Beira

rail line.

37
The presidential succession period was marked by an unspoken and expectant

unilateral cease-fire by the opposition, but it was short-lived. In addition t©

the threats of possibly carrying the guerrilla war into Zimbabwe (which has

sworn to defend the sovereignty of Mozambique), RENAMO has resumed its operations.

Reports received from Mozambique this week indicate that the rebels have laid

waste to the rich region of Angonia, in the Tete zone, and have captured the

garrison at Lilongue, where several ground-air missile batteries had been installed.

Several foreigners from EEC countries (including Portuguese, British and West

Germans) may have been captured by the guerrillas, who are continuing their

advance.

Some people say that rebel leader Afonso Dhlakama intends to launch attacks soon

in the zone of Chinde, near the Mozambique Channel, with the goal of capturing

this settlement and the strategic area of Mocuba. If these centers fall,

Quelimane, the general headquarters of FRELIMO in Zambezia Province, would be in

check and the country could be divided in half.

It is natural that the Zimbabwean troops who are guarding the Beira corridor,

not much farther away, are determined to intervene. The problem is that the

rebels appear to be less and less intimidated by the presence of well-armed

troops from this neighboring country, after the setback inflicted by the rebels,

recapturing their general headquarters in Casa Banana, in Goixmgosa. Then, too,

an offensive launched a few weeks ago by government troops, with the support of

Zimbabwean forces, to retake Mutarara came to grief, resulting in a large number

of casualties, according to a report in MONDE last week.

Center of the Rebellion

Upon the death of Orlando Cristina and of FRELIMO dissident Andre Matsangaissa,

the principal founders of the RENAMO, Afonso Dhlakama inherited a movement which

was difficult to coordinate and which bore the stigma, internationally, of its

dependence on South Africa. Lacking Savimbi's charisma, Dhlakama prepared to

consolidate his power inside the country before launching any campaign go clean

up his image abroad. The rebel leader gradually centralized control and established discipline in the scattered armed bands which were fighting under the

FRELIMO banner, turning them into a better-organized guerrilla force. To do this,

he counted on the cooperation of important regional chiefs, who operate under

their real names or aliases. This is the case with Commander "Dick," in the

northern zone, Commander "Ismail," in the central zone, and "Paulo Domingos" in

the southern zone. The progress of the movement inside the country led the

United States and the FRG to take unofficial action to create another image for

RENAMO, as a result of which Dhlakama replaced Secretary General. Evo Fernandes

(head of the so-called "Indian connection^), who, according to some sources, was

functioning as an all too obvious "link" with South Africa.

Equipped with a "brain trust" and an exceedingly vague party program, it will

not be easy for Dhlakama to put together a group of cadres capable of presenting an image abroad of real capacity for the eventual exercise of power.

Recently, however, there has been a real effort in this regard, particularly in

38
the United States, through Arthur Vilankulu, Gedeao Mahluzu and Serapiao (this

last is a professor at a U.S. university). Observers think that contacts could

be made to recruit other qualified dissidents, such as Joao da Costa, former

RENAMO representative in Bonn, and Miguel Murupa, who may have the highest

political and intellectual stature among the vivilians.

The idea of a union with minor groups, such as FUMO [Mozambique United Front]

and MONAMO [Mozambique Nationalist Movement], may have eeen temporarily abandoned, given that these two movements have no political and military standing

inside Mozambique.

War to the End or Negotiation

The RENAMO offensive is reminiscent of the progression of the Bagandas de Musevevi

euerrillas in Uganda before the fall of the military regime of Tito Okello.

The advance nas followed tribal lines, namely areas in which the Ndau-Shona and

Macua tribes predominate. It would not be easy for the rebels to take the capital, where the population, which is ethnically Changane, is potentially hostile

to the rebels and supports the government. Still, acts of sabotage are occurring increasingly on the outskirts of Maputo.

The British Government is increasingly concerned about the situatifn^ Mozambique, considering the interests of the Lonrho group in the Beira pipeline.

Not content with the deployment of Zimbabwean troops m the region, ^e British

Government and Lonrho are subsidizing the firm Defense Systems Ltd., whose

instructors are training a troop of 600 FRELIMO soldiers 50 *"^J» E^*

Maouto A resurgence of the rebellion in the Nampula zone could make the operaM f»tiie since its purpose is to guarantee the functioning of the rail line

to?he oort'of Sacaia? In recent months, sectors connected with the British

Teeret services have warned the Thatcher government that it would not ^advisable

to pursue a^military involvement on Mozambican ^^-g^« ^J^

in a position^ to win significant victories on the ground. This assertion is

ü L tPd bv the recent desertion to Malawi of 1005 demoralized FRELIMO

^olSiersfwho Lca^Hith weapons and baggage (a point which the British and

French newsmen particularly stressed).

At the moment, Joaquim Chissano has little bargaining ^J^^^l of

«trained bv the other two members of a "troika whicn, in tact, is «» *-«»«»*

the government! They are Marcelino dos Santos, the party man, and Chipande the

army's maT As we said 2 weeks ago, the appeals for mobilization against the

abZe-men?ioned »armed bandits» will certainly continue until the "^ion

a :,llv Tf that happens, it may be the FRELIMO veterans themselves

come to act with the pragmatism which they like to attribute to him.

6362

CS0» 3442/38

39
MOZAMBIQUE

CH1SSANO SEEN AS CONTINUING PRO-SOVIET LINE

Lisbon 0 DIABO in Portuguese 11 Nov 86 pp 7-8

[Article by A.M.2.]

[TextJ Joaquim Chissano's mandate as president of FRELIMO and of the People's

Republic of Mozambique got off to a bad start. It began with a scandal» in

Pretoria, South African Foreign Minister Roelof Botha revealed that Samora Machel

and Robert Mugabe, president of Zimbabwe, had been planning the overthrow of

Kamuzu Banda, president of neighboring Malawi, and the foreign minister had evidence; he exhibited documents in this regard, which had been found in the wreckage

of the plane in which Machel lost his life.

Maputo and Harare dispute the authenticity of these documents, as they could be

expected to do. According to impartial observers, however, such denials have no

more credibility that the statements of those on the other side, who seek to convince public opinion that there is no support for the Mozambican National Resistance from Malawi or South Africa. Mozambican and Zimbabwean denials of the plot

against President Banda are echoed, naturally, in the other Front Line countries

and in Soviet-influenced international circles, but not, however, in other

African countries, such as the Ivory Coast or Zaire, which are outside Moscow's

influence.

The authenticity of the documents presented by Minister Botha had, incidentally,

been verified in advance by the violent campaign launched against Malawi in the

Mozambican news media 2 months ago and crowned with the assault on the Malawian

Embassy in Maputo during the highly significant demonstrations which signalled

the nomination of Chissano for the presidency. Such a campaign was obviously

leading to something more serious against Kamuzu Banda; there was no other reason

for it. Notwithstanding the transit facilities, and others, which the RENAMO

had succeeded in obtaining from Malawi, it is certain that the Lilongwe government would not have refused to cooperate with Maputo, to the point that it had,

more than once, and very recently, turned over to the FRELIMO authorities hundreds of government soldiers who had fled to Malawi.

Why Banda? Why Malawi?

The documentation presented in Pretoria by Roelof Botha reveals that the plot

by Machel and Mugabe (and perhaps also by Kenneth Kaunda) had the support of

40
the Soviet Union. It might be more precise to say that it was encouraged by

the Soviet Union, For 20 years, the regime of Kamuzu Hastings Band* has been a

barrier to the expansion of Soviet influence in southern Africa. The old statesman is one of the rare modern politicians—African or otherwise—capable of distinguishing, on one hand, between the people's right to self-determination and the

communist project to turn this right into a tool of Soviet internationalism and,

on the other hand, between the struggle against "apartheid" and the recognition

of the preeminence of South Africa among the African countries.

Banda became particularly inconvenient after the moment in 1968 when he noted,

with eminent good sense, that"if the Europeans do not have the right to be in

southern Africa, then the Arabs have no more right to be in northern Africa."

A regime led by a man who thinks this way is a regime to be overthrown by the

same forces that wish to overthrow the Pretoria regime. For this reason, it is

Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique which harbor President Banda's enemies—those of

the Free Movement or those of the Socialist League

Aside from what Kamuzu Banda represents, even in his eighties, as an anticommunist

dictator in sub-Saharan Africa, Malawi is also a prosperous country, with J

much better standard of living than its neighbors and with a vocation for regional

leadership. If it continues as such, and if the neighboring countries continue

to deteriorate, by the 21st Century we could see Malawi move beyond the borders

of the former Niassaland and demand "vital space.» This is another reason why

the neighboring countries would now like to destroy the unity and stability which

Malawi has enjoyed under the paternalism of Kamuzu Banda.

In the specific case of Mozambique, there is another reason to picture Malawi as

an enemy of the People's Republic; it is a way for the FRELIMO to divert attention

trom tne reverses which the rebels have inflicted and to drag out the tired

formula that "the republic is in danger," to which revolutions have always resorted

when they are on their last legs.

•Socialist Countries Our Oldest Allies'

Resulting from an official propaganda campaign which went on for 2 weeks, the

attack on the Embassy of Malawi and the stoning of the South African trade mission

constituted highly provocative acts. FRELIMO could be sure that such disturbances

woula ProJoke reprisals from the two neighboring countries and could thus present

itself as the victim and not the guilty party. However, the targets turned the

othPr cheeks in a letter addressed to Chissano, Pieter Botha, president of South

Africa?reiterated his Sesire to maintain the Inkomati Accord. It is a continuing

game of deceptions, but diplomacy thrives on this.

relation to the Soviet bloc. Early in his inaugural address, the newMozambican

dictator cited "the consolidation of socialism" as a Priority ^sk and pLeügea

maintain the very best relations with the Marxist Parties. Days later, on the

occasion of the anniversary of the Bolshevist *

evoluti°;\f„^Vsee ?ht Ss Mikhail Gorbachev a lengthy and warm message, stressing his wish to see the ties

which unite the two peoples, parties and government become closer and closer.

41
It is necessary," Chissano emphasized, "to give priority to strengthening the

traditional relations of brotherly friendship, militant solidarity and fruitful

cooperation with the Socialist countries, which have always been our allies."

For anyone who thought that the FRELIMO "Politbureau" had chosen Chissano over

Marcelino dos Santos because Chissano was not so pro-Soviet, this message to

Gorbachev had the effect of a cold-water douche.

Ironies of Fate

The pursuit of the Soviet route by Samora Machel's successor, the insistance on

regional destabilization, the refusal to come to any understanding with the

MNRi this is certainly not the best path to take to restore a ruined country like

Mozambique, in which a highly significant indicator is the change occurring in

the cashew nut market; in order to keep some of the cashew processing plants

installed by the Portuguese before 1974 in operation, the People's Republic of

Mozambique, which was the world's second largest cashew exporter 12 years ago,

is currently forced to import cashew nuts.

Mozambique's foreign debt stands today at about $3 billion, according to Finance

Minister Majid Asman. The solution arrived at by the late President Machel to

avert a total collapse—recourse to the "odious capitalists" of the International

Monstary Fund—is one of those remedies capable of killing instead of curing.

As it has always done, the IMF is demanding a rigorous cut in public spending

and austerity in private consumption, but if FRELIMO cuts back expenditures in

its already weakened military sector, it will hasten the victory of the rebels,

and to the extent that the people suffer further deprivation (at least 2 million

people are suffering from hunger and the shortage of essential goods is felt by

everyone who is not a member of the party "nomenklatura," except for cooperants

who are paid in dollars), there will be further revolts and the number of potential RENAMO adherents will grow.

Despite some appearances to the contrary, foreign investors are increasingly

following the advice given them 2 weeks ago in the French financial publication

NOKD/SUD EXPORTt "Do not commit yourself, because investment in Mozambique represents an unaffordable risk."

One exception to the general lack of confidence is seen in the powerful English

group "Lonrho," directly or through the various decision centers which it maintains. With typically English obstinacy, stubbornly prepared to perpetuate the

memory of Cecil Rhodes in southern Africa, Lonrho is wagering millions of pounds,

not only on the promotion of an area now known as the'Beira corridor," but on

other areas from Ponto do Ouro to Rovuma. From agriculture to mining and tourism,

everything in Mozambique today is in the sights of the English.

Averted by Salazar, at the cost of buying them out in the port and railway areas,

the risk of British colonization of the "Beira corridor" is growing now as never

before, thanks to FRELIMO. Ironies of fate.

42
Corridor Cut Off

Nonetheless, Lonrho's grandiose plans for the "Beira corridor" face an obstacle

which has proved insurmountable up to now—control of the region by the guerrillas of Afonso Dhlakama, even though a Zimbabwean expeditionary force, furnished by Robert Mugabe, has been maintained there for more than a year.

The most recent RENAMO communique—which FRELIMO has not denied—reports that

the rail line from the port of Beira to the border has been cut at four points!

Dondo, Tica, Maforga and Gandula (precisely the "corridor" which Lonrho had

already claimed for itself) and this in addition to several operations conducted

in Tete and Nampula provinces and the destruction of two freight trains. According to the same source, the government casualties exceeded 300 men, about half of

whom were Zimbabwean troops.

If Joaquim Chissano succeeds in carrying out what he announced in his inaugural

address—"to crush RENAMO and end the war"—it will please both his Soviet

friends and the British plutocrats who are collaborating with him. By the look

of things, RENAMO does not appear at all disposed to let itself be crushed.

6362

CSO« 3442/38

43
NIGERIA

BRIEFS

MILITARY DELIVERIES ORDERS—Intended for border surveillance and sea patrols,

the second Fokker (Netherlands) F-27 PatMar aircraft was delivered in September. It may be recalled that the first airplane of this type has been in

service since May 1986 in the Nigerian Air Force. These aircraft were ordered

in 1982. The postal authorities have just ordered 5 Embraer EMB-110P1 planes

from Brazil for transporting mail bags. The Czechoslovak Aero company delivered the first 24 L-39 Albatros planes in August. [Text] [Paris AFRIQUE DEFENSE

in French Oct 86 p 38] 9824

CSO: 3419/39

44
SWAZILAND

BRIEFS

COCA COLA, OTHER COMPANIES RELOCATING—Coca Cola is to move its concentrate

plant from Durban to Swaziland. The company joins a growing list of South

African-based firms setting up shop there to avoid international sanctions.

Coca Cola officials confirmed yesterday they had agreed in principle to build

a plant at Matsapha, near Manzini, to produce coke concentrates for bottling

companies in central Africa. The giant American soft drink company's Johannesburg external affairs manager Hennie Viljoen said the plant would close down

Coca Cola's Durban concentrate operation in 1987, Coca Cola announced last

month its intention to leave SA, The firm intends to sell off its SA marketing, advertising and bottling functions, in part, to a group of black investors. The highly mechanised Coca Cola plant will only employ 30 people,

but Swaziland officials say other relocations from SA are bringing thousands

of jobs to the kingdom. Two Taiwanese-owned garment firms, Oriental Swaziland and Swaziland Garment Industries, relocated in Swaziland in 1985, bringing

1,200 jobs, Swaziland's Commerce and Industry Minister Derek von Wissel expects more SA«based companies to follow the same route, SA's trade representative in Mbabane, J. M, Sterban, confirmed there had been a recent upsurge in inquiries from firms interested in moving to Swaziland. Tax incentives in Swaziland make it an attractive investment. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 7 Nov 86 p 3] /9274

CSOs 3400/615

45
UGANDA

HUMAN RIGHTS SPOKESMAN CITES CONTINUED VIOLATIONS, TERROR

Frankfurt/Main FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE in German 20 Oct 86 p 5

[Article by Guenter Krabbe, Nairobi: "The Terror Continues Also Under

Museveni"]

[Text] Nairobi, 19 Oct—A Ugandan human rights group has accused the government of the East African state of "serious violations of human rights" and has

urged other countries to exert pressure on head of state Museveni, The secretary general of the human rights group, Sera Muwange, said in a conversation

with Ugandan journalists in Kampala that in the north of Uganda "many innocent

people" were being tortured and killed by the army because they allegedly were

rebels or supported the rebels. A spokesman for the Ministry of Information

in Kampala rejected these accusations as unfounded.

Daily, said Muwange, prisoners from northern Uganda are being brought to

Kampala. An unknown number of them have died as a result of torture. The

public is being kept in the dark regarding the true course of events in

northern Uganda. "Where are the women and children? Are they all rebels up

there?" asked Muwange. He expressed doubt that those who have disappeared

have been taken to "re-education camps." "How do we know that they are not

lying in those mass graves which, as the government officially announced

yesterday, Museveni just visited?" Museveni had inspected mass graves in

northern Uganda in which rebels, allegedly killed in battle with the army,

were interred. "In a few years" Muwange conjectures, someone, on the basis

of these graves, will "present evidence for outrages in northern Uganda

similar to those committed by the armies of Milton Obote and Tito Okello in

the so-called Luwero Triangle."

President Milton Obote, who came to power in 1980 with Tanzanian help, was

overthrown in 1985 by a mutiny under General Tito Okello. In January of this

year Yoweri Museveni reached the capital of Kampale with his rebel army after

5 years of fighting. He has been the head of state since that time. His

victory was celebrated among the Bantu-speaking southern Ugandans because it

meant an end to the almost 20-year-long reign of murder and terror by Nilotic

politicians from the north of Uganda—first Obote, then Idi Amin, then Obote

again, and finally Okello. Following his assumption of power, Museveni showed

journalists and diplomats mass graves, thousands of skulls of murdered people,

and other evidence for his claim that from 1981 to 1985 alone, more than

46
300,000 people were killed by the troops of the governments than in power.

While Museveni has been able to prevail in southern Uganda, the civil war

continues in varying degrees of intensity in the north, where he faces the

remnants of the armies of all the previous heads of state.

Muwange, himself a southern Ugandan, appeared to be revolted that Museveni

supposedly thanked his army during the inspection of the graves in the north.

Previously, the human rights activists protested the fact that relatives of

the government ministers who had been arrested 2 weeks ago in Kampala, as well

as other persons, were being prevented from providing the prisoners, to whom

lawyers also have no access, with blankets and food.

The courageous Ugandan journalists do not hesitate under the Museveni regime

to publish reports critical of the government. Under Amin and Obote especially

critical editors and reporters were locked up, tortured and murdered. In the

final months before he took power Museveni courted the foreign journalists in

Nairobi to get them on his side. Of course since then, he and functionaries

of his government have repeatedly "warned" and threatened the Ugandan and

foreign press with "consequences." The correspondent of the FRANKFURTER

ALLGEMEINE in Nairobi,. who last visited and reported on Uganda in July, was

passed a warning from Uganda that his reports were spreading "poison."

Interior Minister Ssemogerere should resign because Museveni did not inform

him in advance of the arrests of the government ministers. This was demanded

by the spokesman of the People's Democratic Movement of Uganda in a telephone

conversation with a Kenyan newspaper. This "movement" claims to be coordinating the resistance to Museveni. Ssemogerere, as interior minister theoretically responsible for the security of the state, first learned about the arrests

of former Vice President Muwanga, three cabinet ministers and a journalist,

from the newspapers. The ministers and the journalist are leading members of

his own Democratic Party and were among his closest colleagues. Because they

allegedly were planning Museveni's overthrow, they are accused of conspiracy to

commit high treason; they are to go on trial soon.

13238/12859

CSO: 3420/3

47
ZAMBIA

BRIEFS

REFUGEES TOLD 'GROW OWN FOOD' —Lusaka—The number of Mozarobican refugees in

eastern Zambia has risen to about 19,000, Ms Chibesa Kankasa, an official of

the ruling Zambia Unip party, has said, Ms Kankasa, a Unip Central Committee member for the Eastern Province, said Mozambicans continue to cross the

border from Tete, She announced that those refugees settled in camps at

Chadiza, Ketete and Petauke are to be given hoes and seeds so that they can

grow their own food and lessen their dependence on food aid from the government. A team from the Zambian ministry of Home Affairs and of the United

Nations High Commission for Refugees is meanwhile screening refugees in the

Luangwa district, Mr Stanlus Nyamkandeka, governor of Luangwa, said the

screening exercise is being carried out because "not all refugees are genuine," He refused to give any other details. [Text] [Johannesburg THE STAR

in English 25 Nov 86 p 8M] /9274

ZAMBIANS FORCED TO JOIN SA ARMY—Lusaka—Hundreds of youths illegally

crossing into Namibia from Zambia's Western Province to look for work or to

visit relatives are being conscripted into the Caprivi Strip home guard of the

South African army to counter Swapo freedom fighters, reports the Zambia Daily

Mail, Hundreds of youths from villages along the border from Mambova to

Sikonge in Senanga receive military training from the South African army to

fight Swapo while others are sent to Zambia to collect information. The

youths cross into Caprivi Strip in canoes at night, Three of them, Ben

Manyando, Mullokela Muliokela and Michael Silumesi, who had been forced into

the home guard but managed to escape, said from Nalisa Village, near Sesheke,

that boys and girls are targets of South African security recruitment. Secretary of State for Defence and Security Mr Alex Shapi said that although he

was not aware of the Zambian youths being forced to join home guards at the

Caprivi, he knew that South Africa was recruiting Zambians for training to

overthrow the Zambian government. The three escapees said they crossed into

Namibia early this year in canoes but before they did anything, they were

rounded up and sent to a camp under threats of execution because they were

accused of being Swapo members. [Text] [Harare THE HERALD in English 30 Oct

86 p 3] /9274

CSOj 3400/615

48
ZIMBABWE

SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES AID IN DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

Sweden Signs 3-Year Grant Agreement

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 28 Nov 86 p 29

[Text] ZIMBABWE and Sweden are to

enter into a new $110 million

three-year grant agreement, to

take effect on July 1,1987, for the

continuation of various sector

projects currently being carried

out in Zimbabwe, and for the introduction of a new transport sector assistance programme.

Apart from the new $20 million

transport sector project, there will

be no other new sector

programmes, and the balance ofthe

amount will be used for the continuation of education, health, manpower training, and import programmes.

The planning economist of the

Swedish International Development

Agency (Sida), Mr Tor Sellstrom,

this week told the Gazette that the

transport programme would include

the secondment of Swedish road engineers to Zimbabwe, the construction of secondary and feeder roads

by the Ministry ofTransport and the

District Development Fund (DDF),

and training programmes for Ministry of Transport staff.

Continuing projects in the education and health sectors include the

construction of schools, houses,

training of technicians for hospital

equipment, and public administration training for district and local

government officers through the

Swedish Association of Local

Authorities (Sala). Sweden is also

assisting in the amalgamation of

rural and district councils, and in the

establishment of the Urban Development Corporation.

A personnel and consultancy fund

will continue to be used for various

studies, the major study being the

Zimbabwe rural roads study being

carried out by a Swedish consultancy firm, VIAK, for the design of

roads in rural areas.

This fund has also been used for

the recruitment of road engineers,

four traffic controllers for the

department of Civil Aviation, and

for the equipping of a new training

centre at the Vehicle Inspection

Depot, said Mr Sellstrom.

Last year, Zimbabwe received a

total of $110 million in grant finance

of which 35 % was from Sweden for

rural area projects, and for commodity import programmes. This

year, a commodity aid programme

amounting to nearly $10 million has

also been made for the private and

public sectors.

Swedish funds cannot be used for

the procurement of goods from

South Africa, and companies with

interests in South Africa do not

qualify for assistance in commodity import programmes. Also, equipment for police or military use, cannot be imported with Swedish aid.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Funds amounting to about $40

million have also been made available for Sadcc transport and

telecommunications projects, including the Beira Corridor project,

the Botswana, Zimbabwe, and

Zambia microwave link, the international telephone exchange at

Gweru, and, together with Norway,

a project for a power transmission

link between Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi.

The establishment of a regional

post sorting office in Harare is also

being considered, and a team from

the Swedish Posts and Telecommunications Corporation, SwedPost,

will soon arrive in Zimbabwe for

the preliminary planning of the

project, said Mr Sellstrom.

49
Denmark Helps Find Alternative Supplies

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 28 Nov 86 p 29

[Text] ZIMBABWE has started to look

for alternative sources of supply

of essential goods it is currently

importing from South Africa —

and Denmark has been asked to

help.

Mr Henrik Lilverborg, head of

section in the Danish Ministry of

Foreign Affairs (Trade Department), told the Gazette this week

that his country has been approached by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Trade and Commerce "to

identify areas where we could increase our commercial relations

particularly in view ofthe situation

in South Africa:"

The ministry, he said, has already

prepared a list of export and imports

between Zimbabwe and South Africa. "From that list, we have been

trying to identify areas where we

can step in."

Mr Lilverborg added: "We have

had a number of meetings with officials from the Ministries of Trade

and Commerce and Industry and

Technology, the Confederation of

Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) and a

large number of Zimbabwe exporters and importers.

"We feel that there is room for

increasing our trade especially for

goods such as vegetables, pharmaceutical products, industrial

machinery, paper products, textiles

and garments, wood and wooden

products, peaches, plums, grapes,

oranges and strawberries," said Mr

Lilverborg.

Norway's Redd Barna Helps Children

Harare THE HERALD in English 1 Dec 86 p 5

[Text]

THE Norwegian Save the

Children, Redd Barna,

raises its funds through

about 250000 donors In

Norway, including children, a spokesman said in

Harare.

Half of the organisation's funds come from

the Norwegian ministries

of Development Co-operation and Foreign Affairs.

The assistant resident

representative of Redd

Barna, Mrs Valbjorg

Hoaas, said In a statement that 4 600 of the

schools taking part In the

tree care and planting

competition it sponsors

were primary schools.

It was incorrectly reported by Ziana that Mrs

Hoaas was the resident

representative. She said

Mr Knut Ringstad bad

been appointed resident

representative from today.

Mrs Hoaas also corrected misinterpretations

in the Ziana report.

She said the bulk of the

organisation's $2,2 million

budget for next year in

Zimbabwe was for assistance to rural resettle,

ment programmes, Including the supplementary

feeding programme and

the tree care and planting

competition run by the

Ministry of Education.

As a non-governmental,

non-profit, voluntary and

humanitarian Organisation funded in Norway,

Redd Barna gave "assistance to children in need

of help", she said.

Commenting' on the

Ziana report, Mrs Hoaas

said: "Our assistance to

liberation movements- in

Southern Africa is limited

to providing material assistance to the children in

resettlements (camps) in

Angola, Tanzania and

Zambia."

Redd Barna spent about

9625 000 on Mozambican

displaced people in Zimbabwe and Tete this year,

she said.

50
Danida Improves Agricultural Schools

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE (Farming) in English 28 Nov 86 p 32

[Text]

THE DANISH International Development Authority, Danida, Is

spending around $9 million on a

programme aimed at improving

Zimbabwe's four lower-level

agricultural training institutes.

Esigodini institute near Bulawayo

was expanded last year, and work

is to start soon on the Kushinga

Phikelela, Rio Tinto, and Mlezu institutes. The programme should take

another two years to complete.

The four institutes train agriculturalists for duties at a relatively low

level, such as communal-area extension work. Danida has promised

to cover costs in connection with

"modifications, infrastructure, alterations, furnishings, equipment

and teaching aids," according to

Denmark's development counsellor

in Zimbabwe, Henning Frötlund.

Danida may also help to modify

teaching syllabuses in an attempt to

improve the quality of education.

Esigodini institute was expanded

to accomodate 200 students rather

than the previous 40, and a new assembly hall is still to be built, said

Frötlund.

Work has begun at Kushinga

Phikelela, near Marondera, while at

Mlezu (Kwekwe) over $1 million is

to be used to modify old hostels and

to build new ones, to buy

machinery, and to improve other facilities. Modifications will begin in

early 1987, tenders already having

been issued.

New drawing for Rio Tinto (near

Kadoma) are ready, and with

tenders to be issued in January

1987, work may begin in April.

Danida has' been involved in the

agricultural sector for quite some

time, said Frötlund, as this was one

of the main areas of government

concern. Denmark has so far

provided aid to the Dairy Marketing Board, the Grain Marketing

Board and the Cold Storage

Commission.

Danida is supporting extension

work for regional veterinary laboratories and aiding the establishment

.of rural animal management and

health centres, providing money for

the Agricultural Finance Corporation's resettlement fund, and may

soon help with smallholder

irrigation.

The authority's other areas of

major conern are water development and the- improvement of the

rural infrastructure.

/9274

CSO? 3400/629

51
ZIMBABWE

BRIEFS

RECORD WHEAT CROP DELIVERED TO GMB—Contrary to recent rain-inspired expectations wheat farmers have already delivered a record crop to the Grain Marketing Board and are expected to deliver more over the next few weeks. However,

the Zimbabwe Cereals Producers' Association is still waiting to hear what

effect the shortage of combine harvesters and the consequent inability to

complete reaping before the rains has had on the crop's overall quality.

Alan Pilditch, of ZCPA, said the latest GMB intake figures showed that

221,685 tonnes of wheat had been delivered by mid-November. This surpassed

the previous record of 217,000 tonnes. The final figure could be between

225,000 and 230,000 tonnes, he said. He attributed the crop size to a good

season and to increased hectarage. While farmers had planted 42,000 ha in

1985 they had planted 43,000 this year. The crop had grown under suitably

cool weather between May and September during which there was lower evaporation, which had allowed it to mature quicker. Less damage than last year had

been done by quelea. [Text] [Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE (Farming) in

English 28 Nov 86 p 31] /9274

CS0? 3400/621

52
SOUTH AFRICA

U.S. APPOINTMENT OF BLACK AMBASSADOR CALLED PROVOCATIVE

Pretoria DIE AFRIKANER in Afrikaans 8 Oct 86 p 3

[Text] The appointment of a black as ambassador to South Africa is a provocation of white public opinion in South Africa.

That is the view of the HNP [Hersigte Nasionale Party] MP for Sasolberg, Mr

Louis1SStofteVr , on the appointment of Mr Howard ^s^eü; ambassador

in Pretoria. Mr Perkins, who is the American ambassador to Liberia, is the

third black approached by the Reagan administration to fill the position of

ambassador to South Africa.

Mr Stofberg said that the appointment of the American ^^f^l^^

as ambassador to South Africa is in itself a great insult. Liberia is after

all one of the most backward little countries m Africa.

The appointment of a black as ambassador to South Africa shows total contempt

on the part ofthe Reagan administration for the opinion of the majority of

whites, Mr Stofberg declares. "It is a provocation to white public opinion.

Mr Stofberg pointed out further that President Reagan apparently had a struggle to find a black to accept the post. It was thus clearly a political

appointment and not a normal diplomatic appointment. The retiring ambassador,

^neman Nickel, had already acted as though he '«ely tookpart » P£j££;

This behavior had caused immeasurable anger among whites. Everything indicates

that thispolitical role of American ambassadors will continue and will

probably get worse with the appointment of a black.

»America is busy stirring up white feelings against it with its ambassadorial

appointments," Mr Stofberg says.

The announcement of the appointment of Mr Perkins was made to coincide with a

vote in the U?s' Senate coresident Reagan's veto of sanctions against South

Mrica The American President clearly showed that he was choosing this

particular time for the announcement in an attempt to prevent the Senate from

voting against him by a two-thirds majority.

Tn political circles it has long been apparent that President Reagan is seeking" make a JurelJ political 'gesture with his appointment of an ambassador

to South Africa. His purpose is clearly to score a point against the

53
proponents of comprehensive sanctions against South Africa. First a black

businessman, Mr Robert Brown, was approached to accept the post in Pretoria,

but that attempt was dropped after certain business affairs of Brown's came to

light. The second choice was the American ambassador to Denmark, Mr Terence

Todman, but he refused and asked that President Reagan first change his

policy toward South Africa.

12906/12859

CSO: 3401/33

54
SOUTH AFRICA

HEUNIS CHAIRS MEETING ON PROGRESS OF RSC'S

MB120505 Johannesburg SAPA in English 2044 GMT 11 Dec 86

TText] Pretoria, 11 Dec, SAPA—The minister of constitutional development and

planning, Mr Chris Heunis yesterday chaired a meeting to discuss the progress

of the Regional Services Council [RSC], according to a statement from the

minister in Pretoria today.

Present at the meeting in Cape Town were the administrators, or their nominees,

of the Cape Province, Orange Free State [OFS] and Transvaal; the minister of

finance and various ministers responsible for local government m the Minister

Councils of the House of Delegates, the House of Representatives and the House

of Assembly were also present.

The subjects to be discussed were the demarcation of regions; the establishment

of RSC's for those regions; the identification of the local bodies which are to

be members of the RSC's in question and the appointment of chairmen, as well as

the identification of regional functions.

The administrators were the responsible functionaries in that regard, but the

consent of all the ministers mentioned was necessary for the various steps,

the minister said.

"All decisions needed for the implementation of the RSC in practically all the

metropolitan areas in the republic were unanimously taken by all present and

as a result, great progress has been made towards their implementation,

Mr Heunis said.

The areas involved are:

The Cape Peninsula and surroundings, the Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage area, Walvis

Bay, Bloemfontein and surroundings, the Witwatersrand and the Pretoria area.

In Natal investigations were still being undertaken, Mr Heunis said.

The administrators of the Cape Province, OFS and Transvaal plan to issue press

statements in this regard on January 7, 1987.

/7358

CSO: 3400/609

55
SOUTH AFRICA

NGK TIES TO REFORMED ECUMENICAL SYNOD DEFENDED

Cape Town DIE BURGER in Afrikaans 24 Oct 86 p 22

[Editorial: "The Dutch Reformed Church and the Reformed Ecumenical Synod"]

[Text] Within the NGK [Dutch Reformed Church] there have long been differences

of opinion as to the importance of ecumenical connections with other churches

and church groups.

For the proponents of such links it came as a disappointment when the General

Executive Church Council provisionally suspended the Church's membership in

the RES [Reformed Ecumenical Synod] after the 1984 session of the Synod in

Chicago. At the Chicago session the RES ruled, among other things, that support for apartheid is heresy»

The decision of the General Executive Church Council was at that time also

queried in these columns. "It is to be regretted when any body or quarter in

South Africa is deprived of the opportunity for contact and communication with

compeers overseas, whether from without or through its own volition. Numerous

organizations that are hostile to the country have precisely this as their

aim," was one observation.

It is therefore welcome news that attempts at the session of the General Synod

in Cape Town this week to detach the NGK permanently from the RES did not

succeed.

The frustration of the proponents of separation over the reproofs and even

enmity that the Church so regularly has to endure in the ecumenical area is

understandable. This while it costs the Church a substantial amount to remain

a member of such an organization.

In this, however, they don't need to feel alone. For years now South Africa

has stood in the dock at the UN with monotonous regularity. Nevertheless it

remains a member and allows its voice to be heard loud and clear at every

opportunity that presents itself. And not everyone continually turns a deaf

ear to its voice.

Some of the decisions that have so far been adopted by the General Synod on

matters such as apartheid, racism, open church doors and open membership put

the NGK precisely in a position to speak with an even clearer voice from

56
foreign platforms. And these are not decisions imposed by foreign pressure,

but decisions made out of conviction and based on scriptural grounds.

It may be hoped that they will also form a basis for closer relations with

Dut!h Reformed sister churches, for the good of everyone who seeks to spread

the Christian message.

After this it is difficult to try to accuse the NGK of heresy.

12906/12859

CSO: 3401/33

57
SOUTH AFRICA

REACTIONS TO NGK'S WITHDRAWAL OF SUPPORT FOR APARTHEID CITED

Cape Town DIE BURGER in Afrikaans 24 Oct 86 p 2

[Text] The decision of the NGK [Dutch Reformed Church] to recognize the

justification of apartheid from the Bible as a mistake drew widely differing

reactions from church and political leaders yesterday.

Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, chief minister of kwaZulu and leader of Inkatha,

told DIE BURGER that he regards it as "epoch-making."

For him it is "evidence of the degree to which whites are ready for change,"

he said.

"It confirms what I have told many people overseas: That in my political

career of 3 decades I have never before seen such readiness for change among

whites as now.

"I believe, as a matter of fact, that the (white) political leaders have

fallen behind their electorate."

The assessor of the NG Mission Church, Rev Sakkie Mentor, welcomed the decision as a "progressive step," while Dr Hannes Adonis of the NG Mission

Church said "by calling apartheid a mistake, the NG Church narrowly escaped

what the Mission Church calls a sin.

"When you say apartheid is a sin, you are talking theology."

Monseigneur Lawrence Henry, vicar-general of the Roman Catholic archbishopric

of Cape Town, said: "It is an improvement over what was, but it should have

happened long ago. Something is on the move."

Dr Nthato Motlana of Soweto told our correspondent in Johannesburg that he is

not yet convinced that the NGK is prepared to go far enough.

Reconciliation

"Despite the decision, they still believe in separate schools, and therefore

in separate living areas. They condemn racism, but are not really prepared

to condemn apartheid."

58
He still hopes, however, that in the light of the decision "the path of reconstruction and reconciliation" can at long last be taken. "We should have

been on that path years ago," he said.

Prof Ben Engelbrecht, a former minister and member of the NGK and now a

professor of church history at the University of^the Witwatersrand, said he

can "only express his gladness about the matter."

"It is something that has been self-evident for years, but that could not find

expression because of political interference," he said. "As a former "»«ixster

and member of the NGK, I still feel myself heart and soul part of the Church,

and I cannot be other than glad."

Mr Jaap Marais, leader of the HNP [Herstigte Nasionale Party], said yesterday

in Pretoria that the Church's decision was clearly a theological prop for

government policy.

"The synod session is clearly operating in the atmosphere of government

politics. A decision on apartheid will be regarded, and is surely xntended

to be regarded, as a theological prop for the government's rejection of

apartheid.

"Like the government, the Church will probably now take movement away from

discrimination as the starting point in countering the policy of apartheid.

This means that all boundaries between white and non-white xn the NGK wxll

gradually be eliminated, and obviously it will lead to mixed church servxces

andSunday schools."

The leader of the PFP [Progressive Federal Party], Mr Colin Eglin, said that

the resolution should have far-reaching effects on white politics inasmuch

as it was made by what is probably the most important Afrikaans instxtutxon

in the country.

"While differing interpretations of the word apartheid will probably now be

given in the context of the motion, the rejection of apartheid by the NG

Church is nonetheless a very important event."

The leader of the Conservative Party, Dr Andries Treurnicht, will discuss the

matter tonight in Durban at a public meeting in the City Hall.

This Proviso )Has a Long History

There is an interesting history behind the reason why the General Synod of

the NGK needs a two-thirds majority to break or establish ecumenxcal txes.

It involves the political and religious climate after the Cottesloe Church

Conference in 1961. With the unification of the four NGK's in 1962--now the

NGK in South Africa (Cape Province), the NGK in the Transvaal, the NGK xn

Natal and the NGK in the Free State—the great fear of the Free State Synod

was the question of ecumenical ties.

59
The NGK in the Cape Province and the NGK in the Transvaal had then only just

broken their ties with the World Council of Churches, as stipulated by the

Cottesloe Church Conference.

Dr Koot Vorster

To allay the fears of the Free State Church and to block the united NG Church

from ever joining the World Council of Churches again, it was written into the

Church rules that official relations with ecumenical bodies must be decided by

a two-thirds majority of the General Synod.

In his capacity as actuary of the General Synod, the well-known Dr Koot

Vorster, brother of Prime Minister John Vorster, helped frame this Church

rules proviso.

On Wednesday, as it did 4 years ago at the General Synod of 1982, this proviso

ironically tripped up its framers: it prevented ecumenical ties from being

broken.

In 1982 the Synod decided by majority vote to resign from the World Union of

Reformed Churches, but it was not a two-thirds majority. On Wednesday the

Synod again decided by a majority to withdraw from the RES [Reformed Ecumenical

Synod], but again it was not with a two-thirds majority.

A recommendation of the Rights Commission that this provision for a two-thirds

majority remain unchanged was accepted by the Synod on Wednesday evening.

12906/12859

CSO: 3401/33

60
SOUTH AERICA

STRICTER MEASURES FOR HELPING BIACK EDUCATION CONDONED

Bloemfontein DIE VOLKSBIAD in Afrikaans 22 Oct 86 p 15

[Article by political reporter Andre Brink: "No Normalcy in Abnormal

Conditions11]

[Text] Black education will not return to normal as long as living conditions

in the black townships are not normal. Socio-economic conditions, housing,

political expectations and the unrest in townships all have a direct influence

on school attendance, Mr Sam de Beer, deputy minister of development aid and

education, says. In an interview with DIE VOLKSBIAD, Mr De Beer said some

black children cannot be expected to go to school as if nothing had happened,

while severe problems are being experienced in the townships.

Cause

However, it is wrong to say, as many people want to claim, that the unrest in

the schools is the cause of the riots in the townships. This is proved, among

other things, by the findings of Professor Tjaart van der Walt, rector of

Potchefstroom University, that education was not the basic cause of the riots

in the Vaal Triangle, but that other factors played a role there. It must

therefore be accepted that the broad political situation in the country has an

influence on school attendance. Mr De Beer says although problems are still

being experienced, the attendance at black schools in some townships has

greatly improved since strict security measures were introduced in July and

the state of emergency was proclaimed. The measures — which, among other

things, stipulated that only children who had registered may attend school and

which also made provision for the possible carrying of identification cards by

students — evoked sharp reaction at the time. But Mr De Beer says it's an

irrefutable fact that no educational department in the world can function

efficiently without discipline.

"It has become clear to us that we will have to have a greater measure of

discipline in our schools. We could just no longer allow children to show up

late at school without books and then take off early again. Such things

disrupt any educational department. The reaction that we have gotten from

large portions of the country about the stricter measures is absolutely

positive. I think the fact that education is now going on with reasonable

normalcy in so many townships where it had been disrupted is an indication

61
that the black community welcomes the greater measure of discipline and

stability in black townships."

Mir De Beer pointed out that the department's activities are spread over seven

regions: the Highveld (Eastern Rand and certain parts of the Eastern

Transvaal); Johannesburg (actually Alexandra and Soweto); the Cape; Natal and

the Far Eastern Transvaal (e.g. Ermelo); the Northern Transvaal (areas such as

Pretoria, Potchefstroom, Krugersdorp and further north); the Orange-Vaal

region (Vaal Triangle and Sasolburg); and the Free State region. Most of the

problems occur in three of the regions: Johannesburg, the Cape -- actually

just the Eastern Cape — and certain spots on the Eastern Rand. They are at

the same time the areas where most of the schools have been closed and quite a

lot of cases of unrest occur, as is evident from the reports of the Bureau for

Information. "We have problems in the Johannesburg region, but the impression

being aroused that there is no school attendance in the region, and then

extending this and saying that nothing is going on in black schools

nationwide, is just not true."

There is great discontent about the closing of a number of black schools. Mr

De Beer points out that only 33 black schools out of a total of more than

7,300 are closed — 10 of the 61 high schools in Soweto, 10 high schools and

10 grade schools in the Eastern Cape, two schools on the Eastern Rand and only

one in Natal. Children who were in schools which are now closed can attend

other schools. "Our position is that we want to provide education to all the

children insofar as possible. If a black child wants to go to school, we will

accommodate him," Mr De Beer says. In the areas where schools have been

closed, attendance at some schools is also hampered by such things as the socalled day of mourning for the workers who died at the Kinross mine.

Attendance thus varies from day to day. "However, the tale that education has

come to a standstill is absolutely untrue. On the other hand, I am concerned

about every child who does not receive an education. They should all get the

opportunity to prepare themselves for the future." Mr De Beer says the

closing of schools is not — as many people would claim — a negative

instrument which was used out of vindictiveness toward the children. Schools

were closed because no children reported at certain of these schools and

because there was continual disruption over a long period at other schools,

and it became clear that the children of those schools did not want to make

use of the opportunity to go to school.

Manpower

"We thus had valuable schools and trained manpower which were not used in the

best manner, and we therefore say it was in the interest of the students that

these sources should be used for those children who are at school. Our

teacher-child ratio of one to 38 is not exactly ideal, and it therefore goes

without saying that if a teacher sits around idly while he may be used

effectively elsewhere at another school, this is a positive step [sic]. The

closing of the schools thus sprang from positive considerations — to fulfill

our goal of better education for all our children." The services of certain

temporary teachers was ended because of the closing of schools, but teachers

on the permanent staff who cannot be used elsewhere are now being given onthe-job training courses to enhance their very usefulness. Mr De Beer says it

62
is deplorable that radical groups in the country are trying to realize their

political ideals through the educational situation. "I think it is deplorable

that people of the ANC, UDF and of other radical groups — who basically

obtained their education by means of this same system — are depriving or

want to deprive the present generation of that opportunity. School children

are being used as foot soldiers, and I think that is objectionable. It has

become time for the moderate blacks to raise their voices about this. I could

get lyriucal about the heart-stirring stories in letters from children and

parents who plead for them or their children just to be granted or offered the

opportunity to be able to continue their education. These parents are

sacrificing a terrible lot to make it possible for their children to go to

school. Much of their work from early morning till late evening and all these

sacrifices are being destroyed by a small group of radicals who do not think

responsibly about the possibility that we may lose a whole generation by their

conduct. I do not doubt that our people will increasingly realize the value

of education. I think they are getting tired of their children's future being

destroyed for the sake of the whims of a small group of radicals. I think

they are starting to realize more and more — and this is clear to me from my

talks with them — that the slogan of "Liberation first, then Education" quite

simply does not hold water. I have confidence in the people of South Africa.

Dr Gerrit Viljoen, minister of development aid and education, has on occasion

said the blacks are one of the greatest assets in our country. I am convinced

that most blacks are moderates and that some tune or other they are going to

realize that they are severely harming their own cause. I therefore have no

doubt that things will go along better in the future."

Awareness

"I also think there is a greater awareness among many blacks that the

government means it honestly when it says that it is creating equal

educational opportunities for them." Concerning the so-called "people's

education," Mr De Beer says his department does not have any proof that it is

in fact being given in black schools. That would also be contrary to all the

department's rules and regulations, but the department has no control over the

movements of school children after school hours. He also says that

intimidation and instigation are among his department's biggest problems.

Intimidation is at the root of the evil in the areas where schools have been

disrupted, and he has a lot of proof that teachers, principals and children

are being intimidated. Concerning his and his department's task in the

future, Mr De Beer says the biggest task is to offer the best available

education to black children.

13084

CSO: 3401/36

63
SOOTH AERICA

OIL PRICES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ANY MORE THIS YEAR

Bloemfontein, DIE VOIK3BIAD in Afrikaans 22 Oct 86 p 4

[Article by Johan van Tonder: "Petrol, Diesel Not Rising Quickly By End of

This year"]

[Text] The price of diesel and petrol is not going to change this year, Mr

Danie Steyn, minister of mineral and energy affairs, says. He opened the

annual congress of the South African Agricultural Union in Bloemfontein, and

said the chances are good that prices can be maintained till the end of the

year. Mr Steyn said the subcampensation on the sales of petrol is now about

two cents per liter, based on an exchange rate of 43 American cents to the

rand.

Exchange Rate

The subcompensation also includes the five cent per liter which is now being

used to hoard oil and which can be used to avert price increases. If the

exchange rate of the rand and the crude oil price remain at their present

levels, the chances are good that the prices can be maintained until the end

of the year. The price situation will be reconsidered after the program of

hoarding has been completed.

He does not intend to lower the price of diesel, but to use the

supercompensation to buy more crude oil for storage. If the international

prices of diesel [oil] rise due to greater European demand, the

supercompensation can be used to avoid price increases.

As the minister responsible, he wants to assure farmers that agricultural

ground which is damaged by mine building activities will be restored insofar

as practically possible and within reasonably economical time for future

beneficial use by agriculture. If in the future a gold mine should come into

being, the mine will be responsible for doing all the surveying and drawing up

the maps of the owner's reserves to the satisfaction of the property owner.

It is of the utmost importance to South Africa for its border areas to be

occupied economically and be as stable as possible. The furnishing of Escom

power is regarded as one of the most important factors which can contribute to

this.

Made up

Escom is doing all in its power to help consumers with power as quickly as

possible, but that handicap will not be able to be made up until some two

years. Inquiry is being made about the possibility of Escom taking over farm

projects operated by local authorities outside their jurisdictions.

13084

CSO: 3401/36 64
SOUTH AFRICA

AGRICUUTURAL CRISIS FORCING FARMERS TO FACE CHANGE

Bloemfontein VOIKSELAD in Afrikaans 24 Oct 86 p 14

[Editorial: "Crisis in Agriculture"]

[Text] Agriculture plays an enormous role in the infrastructure of any

country. It is an anchor for stability, a barometer for socio-economic

stability, and in South Africa also a very important employer, provider of

housing and education. In every town and city in South Africa there are

people who were born on farms, grew up there and whose families still farm.

That is why there is great commiseration nationwide for the Republic's farming

community and also a profound realization that if things are going badly for

agriculture, they are not going well for the rest of the national economy

either. Sectors of agriculture such as the corn industry are now experiencing

an hour of crisis. Factors which have contributed to that are inflation,

interest rates, droughts, and now boycotts and disinvestment are also yet

coming at a gallop over the hill. Many farmers have already been forced from

their farms, and more will follow.

Whenever cries of help resound from the one agricultural congress to the

other, one gets the impression more deeply every time that that giant industry

is losing more and more momentum: farmers' money and means are gone and

without the necessary resources they cannot stoke the kettle to build up

enough steam to keep the giant going. One plus point is that all those

miseries have made South Africa's farmers ripe for structural changes in

agriculture. They accept it as an accomplished fact that they cannot just

produce as they want and that's that. But they do not have the money to

escape from this dark pit and expect strong support from the state to lift

them out of it. However, agriculture is not the only sector seeking urgent

state aid, and the country's economy is too week to bear all the burdens or to

pump enormous amounts of money into agriculture only, for example. It will

and must help, but within its own limitations.

13084

CSO: 3401/36

65
SOUTH AFRICA

USE OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY IN AGRICULTURE FORESEEN

Cape Town DIE BURGER in Afrikaans 7 Nov 86 p 5

[Article by agriculture editorial staff: "Nuclear Techniques Important for

Fruit Industry"]

[Text] Nuclear radiation techniques may in the future make a substantial

contribution to improving production practices in the fruit industry and

prolonging the shelf life of fruits. That is what Dr Wynand de Villers,

chairman of the Atomic Energy Coproration, said yesterday at the annual Bien

Donne farmers' day near Paarl. Dr De Villiers talked about the utilization of

isotopes and radiation in agriculture and said research shows potential in

that connection, but that in South Africa it is little put into practice. He

said the most effective nuclear power technique in agriculture is the

radiation sterilization of subtropical and soft fruits. South Africa has made

a considerable contribution with respect to research in that connection, and

the technique is applied successfully today to prolong the shelf life of

various products. According to Dr De Villiers, "marking" phosphate

fertilization with radioactivity and monitoring it with a sensor can also

determined precisely how plants receive fertilization and how much is used.

Sterilization

Nuclear analysis techniques can also be used to measure the effect of natural

or synthetic hormones; for example, growth regulators. Dr De Villiers said

there are also great possibilities for combatting insect plagues with nuclear

radiation. The method of so-called "male sterilization" in insects can

eradicate a whole insect population, and has already been used with great

success in overseas countries.

Grapes

According to Dr De Villiers, nuclear techniques can also be used to make basic

studies and create mutations of kinds of fruits. Mr Ian Burger, under

chairman of the Soft Fruits Board, said at the farmers» day that the fruit

industry is full of confidence that the prejudices against the new nuclear

science in agriculture will be resolved. The fruit industry will derive much

benefit if, for example, the storage life of stone fruits and grapes could be

prolonged by a week or so.

66
Professor Attie de Vries of the Management School of the University of

Stellenbosch said the South African economy is on the point of a moderate

upswing. He warned farmers, however, that current base prices in agriculture

are unrealistic and that this is one of the reasons why their margins of

profit will remain under pressure.

13084

CSO: 3401/36

67
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

U,S. CRITICIZED AT AIR FORCE SCHOOL—The Surgeon-General of the South

African Defence Force, Lieutenant-General Nicolaas Nieuwoudt, yesterday

criticised the United States for linking the dismantling of apartheid to

the unbanning of the African National Congress. He was addressing a passing

out parade at the South African Air Force Central Flying School at Dunnottar

at which 24 student pilots were awarded their wings. Three navigators and

12 flight engineers were awarded their insignia. In his address Gen Nieuwoudt

called on moderate South Africans who supported free enterprise and who were

against Socialism and Communism to unite, and urged them to do what they

believed to be right, irrespective of external pressures. [Excerpt] [Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 5 Dec 86 p 8] /9274

CP-HNP TALKS BREAK DOWN—Latest talks between the Conservative Party and the

Herstigte Nationale Party [Reformed National Party] on unification have broken

down. The HNP says in a statement issued in Pretoria that the basic conditions

for amalgamation of the two parties are still lacking. It says they will only

be created by cooperation and growing together. The talks on amalgamation were

attended yesterday evening by the leader of the HNP, Mr Jaap Marias and chairman of the Conservative Party, De (Freddie Hudsonberg). [Text] [Johannesburg

Domestic Service in English 1600 GMT 10 Dec 86 MB] /7358

CSO: 3400/609

68
SOUTH AFRICA

SOWETO COUNCIL CONTINUES EVICTIONS, POWER SHUTOFFS

MB130743 Johannesburg SOWETAN in English 12 Dec 86 p 2

[Article by Langa Skosana]

[Text] The Soweto Council has evicted four residents in Jabulani township for

failure to pay rent and is cutting the electricity supply to many homes where

tenants are in arrears with their payments.

This was confirmed yesterday by the council's town clerk, Mr Nico Malan.

He said his council cut power from many homes in Dlamini and Senaoane Townships

last month and only restored it after residents had paid up.

Because of these cuts and the inconvenience they caused, some residents have

come to realise that they could not continue using a service they were not paying for, said Mr Malan.

He warned that if the Rand Water Board, which sells water to Soweto, decided

to withhold supplying the area, residents would experience similar cuts.

Comparing rent payment and electricity and water tariff payments, Mr Malan

said most people were paying their water and electricity bills, and the rent

turnover for November was 50 percent better than the previous month.

The continuing rent boycott, he said, had forced the council to evict four

people in Jabulani township and serve 93 summonses on others who were not paying up.

He said 17 Jabulani residents decided to oppose the council's summonses in

court and their cases were pending.

The four families that were evicted, he said were in arrears with amounts

ranging between R300 and R500 and the council had acted responsibly in ejecting them.

Before the council evicts anyone, he said, it took into account a person's

personal circumstances and the threats and intimidations from people enforcing

the rent boycott.

"We can't ignore threats or intimidation because we realise that a lot of people

are prepared to pay," he said.

/7358 69

CSO: 3400/601
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

ANC URGES PRESS TO IGNORE CENSORSHIP—The ANC has urged the mass media in South

Africa to ignore the regime's press censorship, which now requires the press to

submit stories for mainly sensitive issues to senior officials for clearance.

A spokesman for the nationalist organization said in Lusaka that the press in

South Africa should ignore the censorship and continue its task of keeping the

public informed about the reality of the situation inside South Africa. He

said the news blackout would not stop the ANC and urged all the democratic

movements in South Africa (?take) all necessary measures to withstand the

enemy. [Text] [Lusaka Domestic Service in English 1800 GMT 12 Dec 86 MB]

/7358

2 MILLION APPLY FOR ID—Pretoria, 9 Dec, SAPA--A total of 2,152,965 applications for the new uniform identity document had been received from black people

by 5 December, since the campaign started at the beginning of May, a spokesman

for the Department of Home Affairs said in Pretoria today. During the week

1 December to 5 December, applications had been received at a rate of 22,082

per day. [Text] [Johannesburg SAPA in English 1113 GMT 9 Dec 86 MB] /7358

BUTHELEZI WARNS AGAINST REVOLUTION—The chief minister of the South African

national state of KwaZulu Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, says revolution in South

Africa's circumstances will destroy all prospects of democracy in the country.

Speaking at a meeting near Johannesburg, Chief Buthelezi said nothing posed a

greater threat to democracy than masses of starving people for whom the government of the day could provide no relief. He said South Africa's population

was increasing at a rapid rate, and a South Africa whose economy had been

destroyed would not be able to provide the necessities of life. Chief

Buthelezi said even if industrial growth was maximized now, it would be a long

time before there was final victory over poverty, ignorance, and disease. The

chief minister said revolution would not shorten the time for that victory to

take place, but could only prolong it. [Text] [Johannesburg International

Service in English 0630 GMT 2 Dec 86 MB] /7358

CSO: 3400/601

70
SOUTH AFRICA

PRIVATE SECTOR COUNCIL'S NEW STRATEGY FOR URBANIZATION EVALUATED

PSC Urges Government To Take Action

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 3 Dec 86 p. 11

[Article by Colleen Ryan]

[Text]

The Private Sector Council

(PSC) has called on the Government to take swift action

to resolve serious problems

that stand in the way of a

new urbanisation strategy

for South Africa.

In a statement, the PSC said

the scrapping of the pass laws

was the first critical step in a

new urbanisation plan, but

other problems had to be tackled urgently.

Important issues still to be.

resolved include forced removals, the need for restoration of

citizenship to all blacks, the

crisis in local government and

the need for a new rural development policy.

•The PSC said forced removals and the demolition of shack

settlements should be halted.

ALTERNATIVE

"The Government should

issue a firm policy statement

coupled with instructions to the

second and third tiers of government and all relevant officials, that no structures located

on publicly-owned land are to

be demolished unless, and until,

there is affordable, suitably located alternative accommodation acceptable to the people

concerned."

The PSC said the emphasis

of Government policy should

be on facilitating the provision

of well-situated urban land in

order to prevent illegal occupation.

Laws preventing slum development should not be applied unless alternative accommodation was available.

Forced removals should be

stopped.

•Restoration of South African

citizenship — it was essential

that an urgent and clear settlement be achieved with the

authorities of the Transkei-Bophuhatswana-Venda-Ciskei

states to restore South African

citizenship to all citizens.

The PSC warned that if this

issue was not resolved soon it

would cause "confusion and

bitterness ... and could cause

ethnic tension and conflict".

"The Government should, as

a matter of urgency, announce

that all citizens of territories

formerly part of the South

Africa will also be citizens of

South Africa.

RENOUNCE

"This is unless they formally

renounced South African citizenship."

• The crisis in local government — the quality of urban

management and government

in South Africa's urban areas

would be of critical importance

in a future, urbanised society.

"The present institutions of

local government affecting

black people lack community |

legitimacy and economic via-'

bility.

"What is required is a recognition of these realities and a

determined effort to engage in

local-level negotiations to devise constructive solutions and

community-backed institutions

of local government.

"The research evidence from

regions all over the country ...

suggests that the leaders of all

local community-based black

organisations may be willing to

negotiate on local issues, frequently in defiance of the uncompromising stance of the national organisations to which

they are affiliated."

•Rural development — an urgent inquiry should be;

launched into the legislative

changes needed to free the

rural market of all discrimination, it said.

"The Land Acts of 1913 and

1936 contain racially-discriminatory provisions which inhibit

rural development and economic growth.

"Rural development is a national priority and it is not yet

afforded that status in national

economic and development

priorities," the PSC added.

71
New Jobs in Low-cost Urban Areas

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 3 Dec 86 p 4

[Article by Linda Ensor]

[Text]

IF 1986 was a year of planning

and preparation for the Private Sector Council on Urbanisation (PSC), it is expected

that 1987 will be one of pressure,

behind-the-scenes negotiation

and — hopefully — implementation ofits urbanisation strategy.

The PSC and its four working

groups have engaged iff intensive

preparatory work throughout the

year to place the private sector in

a position to achieve a major new

reform thrust next year.

Representatives of the FCI, Assocom, AHI, Nafcoc, Seifsa and the

Chamber of Mines,' as well as

prominent businessmen and industrialists, are involved in the initiative.

The PSC's foray into what some

may regard as the exclusive terrain of politicians is motivated by

a belief that the private sector has

a fundamental economic interest

in the way the urbanisation processis managed.

In the next few decades, the PSC

believes, an average of 250 000 new

workers will enter the labour market each year, and to provide them

with sufficient employment opportunities, an average annual growth

rate of about 5% in GDP will be required. The vast majority of new

jobs would have to be created in

the low-cost urban areas.

In the PSC's view, businessmen

have a vital interest in the way

cities are established andrun.

TI he productivity of industry,*

services and commerce located in

the cities will be heavily influenced by both the efficiency and

equity with which urban infrastructure and opportunities are

planned, financed, built and maintained," states a PSC report released recently.

The PSC was established last

year to work out an urbanisation

strategy. Four working groups involving 170 people (118 of them actively) were set up to discuss rural

development; housing and urban

development; employment and regional development; and urban

management and government,

with the aim of formulating alternative policies.

Chairmen leading the groups are

Len Abrahamse, chairman of Syfrets, Reinholt Höfmeyf»a retired

Barlow Rand personnel director,

Ian Sims, chairman of British Petroleum, and Sam van Coller,

executive director of Seifsa.

"We aim to produce proposals

that have the support of the private sector and endorsement from

significant sectors of black opinion

so that, even if we don't go asfar as

they might want, there is agreement that our proposals really are

leading in the right direction and

removing key obstacles to a nondiscriminatory society," says the

report.

The PSC aims to give punch to

its proposals by building a broadbased reform alliance consisting of

business leaders, organised commerce and industry, members of

the black community and academics.

It believes that, if successful in

this effort, it "has the potential to

form the broadest-based, most influential reform alliance in the

country".

However, a new approach to urbanisation will only be successful

if underpinned by an effective programme of political and economic

reconstruction. Two pre-conditions, the PSC stresses, are essential.

"First, legitimate institutions —

particularly at local government

level — need to be created to be

the key institutional actors facilitating the delivery of socio-economic products, especially to

blackcommunities.

"Second, business confidence

(national and international) must

improve in order to revive the economy by increasing investment

andcreating new jobs."

In turn, these preconditions rely

on the implementation of a political programme which will restore

confidence among businessmen

and blacks in the future of the

country.

While government has introduced significant reforms, the PSC

emphasises the need for it to go

further. The Abolition of Influx

Control Act, which came into effect from July 1 this year, lifted all

legal controls over the movement

of SA citizens; but policy changes

on three further issues are necessary before this measure can have

positive effects on economic

growthand political stability.

These, says the PSC, are the restoration of citizenship to residents

of TBVC countries and an end to

the demolition of squatter settlements and the removal of settled

communities.

A,l bout five-million residents of

the TBVC states lost their SA citizenship in terms of the Restoration

of SA Citizenship Act and were

thereby excluded from the benefits

of the abolition of influx control, as

their movements became subject

to control in terms of the Aliens

Act.

The PSC urges government to

publicly offer automatic dual citizenship to all the residents of the

TBVC countries and, if further negotiations are required, it should

as an interim measure exempt

them from the provisions of the

Aliens Act.

Also, no squatter dwellings located on publicly-owned land

should be demolished unless and

until there is affordable, suitably72
located, alternative accommodation acceptable to the people concerned, the PSC states. To prevent

illegal squatting, government

should allocate and service large,

tracts of well-situatedurban land.

The PSC's interim proposals

were compiled from its on-going

investigations into black local government, rural development, the'

policy of deconcentration and decentralisation, restrictions on

black business and residential segregation. _

The present system of black

local government is in a state of

crisis. "The present institutions of

local government affecting black

people lack community legitimacy

and economic viability and will be

unable to deliver."

Yet the PSC stresses: "The quality of urban management and government in SA's urban areas will

be a critical determinant in the society's capacity to meet the challenges — economic, social, administrative and constitutional — of a

rapidly-growing urbanising population."

Government should make a determined effort to engage in negotiations with black communities

and white local authorities to devise community-backed institutions. Negotiations should be open

and not constrained by existing

local structures and policies, the

PSC suggests.

I_J hese negotiations will, however, be inhibited if leaders continue

to be detained. "The research evidence from regions all over the

country, in particular the Eastern

Cape and the PWV, suggests that

the leaders of all local, community-based black organisations may

be willing to negotiate on local issues, frequently in defiance of the

uncompromising public stance of

the national organisations to which

they are affiliated," the PSC report

says.

A cost-benefit analysis of the decentralisation/deconcentration

policy is strongly recommended as

well as an overhaul of enforced racialsegregation.

"The demands of urban growth

are so great that the urban areas

and large cities must expand in the

most cost-effective manner possible. The present policy of racial

zoning of land, settlement and occupation in urban areas will limit

the amount of suitably-located

land available for low income settlement and result in such settlement occurring in segregated, separate new dormitory areas far

from workopportunities."

A,llso, the regulations and institutional constraints inhibiting the entry of black businessmen into the

economy — especially the formal

sector — must be thrown out as a

matter of urgency.

Although it has not been recognised as such in national economic

strategies, rural development is a

priority in the PSC's view and it

recommends an urgent enquiry be

launched into legislative changes

needed to free the rural market for

land, labour and capital of all

racially discriminatory restrictions. At present, land in rural

areas is racially allocated in terms

of the Land Acts of 1913 and 1936.

It is in the light of these recommendations that the PSC believes

it to be urgently necessary for private sector leaders to enter into

policy discussions with government at the most senior level.

"If such a process can provide

mutually open access of political

and private sector leaders to one

another on policy issues of importance, the level of economic confidence in our society will be greatly

enhanced."

/9274

CSO! 3400/628

73
SOUTH AFRICA

REPORTER VIEWS WORSENING LABOR SITUATION IN PAST YEAR

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 2 Dec 86 p 10

[Article by Sheryl Raine]

[Text]

It has been a tumultuous year for

industrial relations in South Africa,

with two states of emergency, persistent inflation, sanctions, the biggest stayaways yet recorded and

major shifts in trade union alliances.

And the year isn't over yet.

Unfinished business abounds. The

wage dispute between the National

Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and Gold

Fields SA is far from over, and strike

clouds are gathering on a stormy horizon.

Labourites should have known the

year would produce a bumpy ride for

both unions and management when on

January 1 the biggest labour clean-out

in the country's history took place.

About 20 000 black mineworkers

were fired by Gencor's Impala Platinum mine in Bophuthatswana for taking part in an illegal strike. Many were

later re-employed, but it started what

was to be a tough year for Gencor in

the field of labour relations.

An ever-present factor in wage negotiations was the recession. Accurate

unemployment figures are still a rarity

but at the top end of the estimates was

a figure of 6 million jobless (including

homelands) produced by Professor

Jeremy Keenan of the Sociology Department of the University of the Witwatersrand.

If any one sector stood out as a "war

zone", it was mining.

No other industry was as fraught

with tension. Analysts pinpointed as

reasons spillovers of violence and

grievances from broader black communities; delays in scrapping job reservation; years of frustration on the part

of migrant workers; increased unionisation; and the devastating impact of

the states of emergency.

Fights and murders

Events included strikes, fights and

murders.

But it was not all bad news. In many

cases, sound labour relations prevailed.

Many issues were negotiated peacefully and successfully even though these

triumphs did not make headlines.

In January hundreds of black miners

were fired from Randfontein Estates

gold mine after a bloody clash between

workers and police left 10 dead, including two white policemen.

Racial tension escalated on the

mines this year, white resentment at

having to do "black" jobs during wildcat strikes was just one flashpoint.

In March, white miners in Witbank

vowed to arm themselves for protection. After a white miner was allegedly

found carrying a gun at Wolwekrans

colliery, 900 black NUM members

went on strike for two days.

Job reservation is still on the statute

book, preserving 13 job categories for

whites.

It was a year in which sit-in and

sleep-in strikes became popular and

caused employers to go scurrying to

the Supreme Court for interdicts.

No sit-in was as extraordinary as the

one at Blyvooruitzicht gold mine where

1200 black mineworkers went without

food for 36 hours underground.

74
The single biggest tragedy in the industry was the fire which claimed 177

lives at Kinross gold mine in the eastern Transvaal. Attacks were launched

by NUM on the industry's safety record. International attention was focussed on the fact that about 800 people die each year in South African

mines. The industry strongly defended

its safety standards.

NUM declared October1a day of

mourning for the Kinross victims,

sparking the biggest mine stayaway recorded, with the independent Labour

Monitoring Group (LMG) estimating

between 250 000 and 270 000 miners absent from work. In all industrial sectors, 600 000 workers observed the day

in various ways.

Although there was no general wage

strike, the industry suffered considerable disruption. The Chamber revealed

that by September 11 there had been

109 unlawful stoppages on its gold and

coal mines.

Turning to macro issues, it was also

the first year of the Congress of SA

Trade Unions (Cosatu). In keeping with

its "one industry, one union" motto the

growing infant, witha claimed 600 000

members, pulled off two major mergers. The Food and Allied Workers

Union was born from combining the

Sweet, Food and Allied Workers Union

and Food and Canning Workers Union,

while the Transport and General Workers Union incorporated the General

Workers Union.

Tough and violent

The second important shift in union

alliances concerned the merging of the

Council of Unions (Cusa) and the Azanian Confederation of Trade Unions

(Azactu) on October 6. Cusa/Azactu,

which has black consciousness leanings, claimed membership over 300 000.

Another important event was the

launch of the Inkatha-sponsored United

Workers Union (Uwusa) on May 1.

Since then, tough and at times violent

competition has ensued between Cosatu and Uwusa for membership.

The death of the Trade Union Council, once a central pillar in the local

labour scenario, left 32 affiliates with

170000 members homeless.

Initiatives got under way, however,

for the formation ofa loosely-structured Labour Forum. Whether unions

backing the idea will put their money

where it's needed to make the foruma

reality, remains to be seen.

It was an absorbing year in the Industrial Court.

BTR Sarmcol vs the Metal and Allied Workers Union (Mawu), the longest labour dispute to date in South

Africa, is still before the court following the dismissal in Howick, Natal, of

1000 workers in April 1985.

Gencor lost its appeal in the landmark Marievale case to NUM and had

to reinstate about 500 mineworkers,

fired duringa legal wage strike last

year.

1986 will go down in history as the

year of the stayaway.

The biggest May Day (May 1) celebrations came sandwiched between

two states of emergency and ata time

of great tension. The LMG found at

least 1,5 million workers took part in

what becamea de facto public holiday. Mass rallies were organised all

over the country. In Soweto, Mrs Winnie Mandela shared a platform with

Cosatu president Mr Elijah Barayi.

In Durban, Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi launched Uwusa in front of a massive crowd at the Kings Park Stadium.

Before June 16 came around, the second state of emergency was in force.

Nevertheless the June 16 stayaway

was as big as that of May 1.

With few exceptions, employers responded to these stayaways with a "no

work, no pay" policy and asked the Federated Chamber of Industries and

other bodies to call fora Government

investigation into public holidays.

The public holiday issue

No inquiry has been set up. It looks

as though business will once again

have to deal piecemeal with the public

holiday issue.

The major trauma of the labour year

was the second state of emergency

which thrust broad security issues and

community concerns onto union agendas.

In the first three weeks of the emergency 923 union leaders and members

were detained. That number subsequently rose to thousands. Although

many have been released some, like

Mawu's national secretary Mr Moses

Mayekiso, will probably spend Christmas behind bars.

Union activities, wages talks and report-back meetings remain seriously

hampered by emergency regulations.

Strikes and stoppages over emergency detentions erupted in several areas.

Most deeply affected was the retail industry which, in the first two weeks

after the emergency was declared, suffered more than 60 strikes co-ordinated

by the Commercial Catering and Allied

Workers Union (Ccawusa).

75
/9274

CSO: 3400/626

In July, 10000 miners staged goslows and strikes in protest against

emergency detentions and on July 14

Cosatu staged a national day of action.

The state of emergency strengthened

the resolve of trade unionists in favour

of pressure, including sanctions, on

South Africa to dismantle apartheid.

What backlash will be experienced by

these unionists when their members

start to lose jobs, remains to be seen.

The disinvestment debate was spiced

with trouble when General Motors SA

faced a three-week strike over selling

out to local owners. Workers demanding severance pay, pension fund guarantees and a voice on the new board of

the company, will have their day in the

industrial court on December 3.

New areas of labour organisation included local black council workers,

black civil servants and domestic

workers.

The Government, in retaliation

against alleged terrorist infiltration

and attacks from Mozambique, decided

to expel all Mozambican contract

workers — 30 000 in agriculture, more

than 66 000 on the mines and 170 000

illegals.

For these people, next year will not

be a happy one.

76
SOUTH AFRICA

COSATU'S FIRST ANNIVERSARY NOTED

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 1 Dec 86 p 13

[Article by Mike Siluma]

[Text]

The Congress of SA Trade

Unions (Cosatu) has had an

enormous impact on polities

and labour relations.

Since its inception on December 1 1985 the federation,

now claiming 650 000 members,

made clear it would oppose the

Government's race policies and

fight for members' rights on

the shop floor.

It committed itself to a united, democratic South Africa,

free of oppression and economic exploitation and set these as

its main tasks:

•Organising effective national

unions and unifying them into a

national federation.

• Uniting members into a

strong, confident working

class.

•Encouraging democratic

worker organisation and leadership in all spheres of society.

Cosatu's success or failure

should be measured against

these objectives.

On the factory floor, it has

been involved in a protracted,

if erratic, union formation programme. This paid off with the

formation in May of the 60 000-

strong Food and Allied Work

ers' Union through a merger including the Sweet, Food and

Allied Workers' and the Food

and Canning Workers.

The 26 000-strong Transport

and General Workers' Union

emerged from the amalgamation of the old TGWU and the

General Workers' Union.

The Cosatu affiliated-SA

Domestic Workers' Association

was instrumental with sister

domestic worker bodies in establishing the giant national

union for domestic workers,

formed in Cape Town at the

weekend.

Cosatu assistant general secretary Mr Sidney Mafumadi

said the federation was satisfied with progress in its merger efforts. While admitting the

objective of industrial unions

for all 12 sectors identified at

the Durban launch had not yet

been met, the process of forming one union per industry "has

been set in motion".

There are moves to establish

industrial unions for construction and farm workers.

Together with affiliates including the National Union of

Mineworkers (NUM), Cosatu

this year put occupational safety high on the industrial relations agenda.

An estimated 600 000 workers took part in nationwide industrial action on October 1 to

protest at the deaths of 177

mineworkers at Kinross.

On the political front, Cosatu

co-operates with groups such

as the National Education Crisis Committee and the United

Democratic Front in opposing

the Government.

Mr Mafumadi said this relationship had benefited the federation, the community and the

political organisations involved.

The successful May 1 and :

June 16 campaigns, planned

jointly by the federation and

community organisations, bore

testimony to this, he said.

However Cosatu's political

role, which it sees as imperative in the light of the disenfranchisement of most of its

members, attracted the hostile

attention of the State. The organisation was one of the chief

targets when the state of emergency was declared with Cosatu accounting for up to 80 percent of unionists held under the

emergency.

/9274

CSO: 3400/626

77
SOUTH AFRICA

FUTURE OF JOHANNESBURG AS POST-INDUSTRIAL CITY NOTED

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 1 Dec 86 p 4

[Commentary by Hans Hallen]

[Text] FHAT IS the future of Johannesburg? And is it to

be a post-industrial city?

If it is to develop towards such a future it is clear

that it needs to achieve, in the

words of Professor Nattrass:

"Freedom from the oppression of

poverty, from drudgery, from ignorance and from dominationby

others."

Freedom from poverty must

mean the sharing of wealth.

Much is made these days of

equalising incomes and the position and status of individuals. We

need to remember that equalisation of wealth is the major aim,

and this needs to be done by methods that do not greatly inhibit the

general increase in wealth, and

that are not too painfully confiscatory.

Wealth lies in education, in freedom of choice, location and access1

to opportunity and tangibly in the

terms of ownership, rights and titles to land and property.

salary of R2 000 a month

earned by two individuals who

must live, one an hour away from

work, the other 10 minutes away,

does not yield an equality of savings and hence of wealth.

It is not enough to say, as we do

with abandon, that the ownership

of a house is the basis of the free

enterprise system. The freedom

not to own a house and to own

instead a knitting machine or an

electric guitar performed for profit is a more important freedom.

Freedom from drudgery is the

direction in which industrial

society has moved us and the next

leap is to spread the benefits of

technology and science broadly

throughout society.

It's strange to have a situation

where we encourage the poor to

dig their own foundations, while

there are front-end loaders leaving

Durban docks for sale abroad.

; Freedom from ignorance will

mean the massive development of

education. There is a need to make

education — formal, informal and

non-formal — responsive to and

representative of the community.

s'hould we not make it a metropolitan function? Is there not a real

case for education to become the

general and real concern of the

metropolis? For education at

every level is the great growth

activity of the post-industrial city.

That means first-time education

as well as re-education. Private

and public together need to decide

upon the priorities and to reflect

the unfolding vision of and ambitions for the future

Let me add here that, while

equal education is needed, we need

also freedom of choice in education. For this is the acid test. The

individual is the judge of equality

and quality — not the purveyor.

The city just doesn't change on

its own, and the industrial city cannot be made to disappear with

tree-planting and handsome urban

arrangements and cheerful exercises in visual improvements. The

78
most vigorous ofsocial revolutions

have been played out in attractive:

settings.

The industrial city changes into

a better and different place because it has different functions and

because the laws, customs and institutions are reshaped in response

to the changes in function.

The post-industrial city will be

built on major developments in

science and technology and will

dominate the productive activities

of the metropolis. Some of these

come to mind — chemical sciences

and biological engineering, environmental sciences, electronics

and the component technologies.

Johannesburg, because it has the

largest concentration of institutions and skills inSA, is best placed

to become SA's — and Africa's —

first post-industrial city.

Io achieve this the following

needs to happen:

1.—The institutions of the metropolis, the management structures,

formal and informal, will need to

ease the path of the individual into

a productive and creative role in

city life. There will be a welcome

sign to the city.

; These institutions include not

Only city managements but those

of professionals, the commercial

world, the scientific and cultural

institutions, the libraries, museums, art galleries and the field ofs

communication.

, Each of these will need to reshape attitudes and priorities, and

where an institution does not exist

it will need to be created.

.2. —City, state and financial institutions will enter into joint ventures to finance and manage the

process of renewal of the city, and

these will include the renewal of

the core of the city and the introduction into it more of the diverse

functions of society.

Sadly, only after we have

achieved a unified political structure can we tackle that dreadful

legacy of the industrial city in its

South African form — the township.

Ihe new city will be one where

the individual will feel welcome in

his own city/metropolis and where

he will be party to the decisions

that affect his life.

It is thus an open city with the

rich and complex urban culture of

modern society, building on diversity to create new richness and

complexity. There will be no use of

cultural nostalgia for political

ends.

If science and technology harnessed with wisdom and foresight

cannot develop here, we face decades ofsocial and political misery.

We will keep resurrecting the tailend of industrial development and

our social institutions will decay.

Failure to provide a bold initiative for want of political ingenuity

may well prove to be damaging in

the way that the revocation of the

Edict of Nantes had upon the educated and skilled persons in postReformation France.

The repeat of the Huguenout dispersion, which has already commenced here, will certainly leave

us unable to achieve to the modern

metropolis and the modern

society.

We have reached the stage

where our country and this metropolis of Johannesburg cannot

move forward with confidence;

that its actions are correct unless

there is a joining together of our

society for common goals.

Good management and great

technical skills cannot do it for

management and technical skills

carry out objectives set by others.

That's the democratic system;

the other competing system, in

practice, is rule and management

by a self-perpetrating technological elite.

Despite a litany of miseries we

can be pleased at the good work by

individuals and institutions, and

that there are significant shifts in

state policies. The idea of citizenship for all and the removal of

influx control are good examples,

and so are the opening up of business opportunities in the cities.

I,If rumour has it right, then the

removal of group areas will follow,

as will the opening of educational

institutions.

These represent large and quantitative improvements in the laws

that order our lives. But it is the

qualitative leap that has not yet

been taken.

The leap that is needed is to

recognise the oneness of the

society and the individual in it. To

do that will give impetus for the

development process to progress

and take us from the miseries of

the industrial societies and their

social, physical and political pathologies.

/9274

CSO: 3400/628

79
MAJOR CAMPAIGN TO BE LAUNCHED TO PROMOTE INDABA PROPOSALS

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 4 Dec 86 p 15

[Article by Colleen Ryan]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

The , most ambitious

sales, campaign yet

seen in South Africa is

about to be launched,

with the organisers of

the kwaZulu/Natal Indaba. hoping to persuade' the people of

Natal and the Government to accept non-racial» rule for the province-; •

The effect of the Indaba plan would be to take

power from the central

Government and give it

to the new provincial

rulers, so it is highly unlikely the Nationalists

will accept the proposals

in their present form.

Already, the leader of

the «National Party in

Natal;. Mr Stoffel Botha,

has? rejected the draft

constitution, saying it

would lead to black domination.

And the deputy chairman, of the Indaba, Mr

John Kane-Berman, believes Mr Botha's statement sums up the present

Government mood.

PROOF NEEDED

"Mr Botha has let the

cat> out of the bag and I

think it will have the effect of stopping the Indaba resting on its laurels.

'3t will have to galvanise itself for the next

phase, of the operation.

"It has to prove that

the great majority of

people in the province

want this form of government;'/ said Mr KaneBerman.

The: Indaba had decided '.the proposals should

be isubmitted to all the

people of kwaZulu and

Natal: Mr Kane-Berman '

said;he hoped such a test

or referendum would

take place in the next six

months. He had no illusions about the difficulty

of persuading the Government to accept the

plan.

The Indaba was called

eight months ago to try

to create a single legislature for Natal and kwaZulu.

Delegates consisted of

the 39 "middle ground"

groups, including agricultural, religious and cultural groups and other

regional cultural bodies.

One of the most important participants was Inkatha, whose chief representative was Dr Oscar

Dlhomo, kwaZulu's Education Minister.

The Government had

observer status, but

right-wing groups as well

as significant black

groups such as the United

Democratic Front were

absent from the talks.

The UDF has rejected

the Indaba decisions, saying it was an attempt to

bypass the ANC while it

was banned, and that it

was not a genuine, nonracial democracy.

Mr Kane-Berman admitted that rejection of

the Indaba by groups

such as the UDF was a

problem.

He said the ANC,

which did have support in

Natal, was locked in a

power struggle with Inkatha.

After long and sometimes difficult deliberations, the Indaba decided

last week on a non-racial

constitution, with only

the Afrikaans culutral

group, the Federasie van

Afrikaanse Kultuurverenigings (FAK) refusing to sign the agreement.

The key aspect of the

constitution is the Bill of

Rights which is designed

to protect minority rights

and end all discrimination. It also provides for

a two- chamber legislature, a Prime Minister

and a 10-man Cabinet, a

governor, standing committees and an independent judiciary.

The Bill of Rights

guarantees equal protection under the law for all

inhabitants; equality; that

race groups can own and

occupy property anywhere, and protection for

language and cultural

rights which would be enforced by the Supreme

Court of South Africa.

The constitution also

stresses the importance

of "devolution of power"

and proposes that major

functions presently carried out by central government be transferred

to the provincial government.

Functions to be devolved include revenue

collection, primary and

secondary education,

planning, health services,

agriculture, physical and

land use planning, tourism and local government.

Mr Kane-Berman said

that if the Government

accepted the constitution,

then the new provincial

government would have

the power to abolish all

discriminatory legislation, including the Group

Areas Act.

80
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

BILOT

RIGHTS

KWAZULU / NATAL

CONSTITUTION

SUPREME

COURT

«füll« TEST:'iG

LOWERS

GOVERNOR

N

t FGISLATURE;

FIRST CHAMBER ..

TOO MEMBERi. •:••

PROPORTIONALLY ,:

ELECTED :;':'

15 CONSTIT'JENQES

_L

CJTJRAL. COUNCILS

A

ECONOMIC

COUNCIL

^2

ACVISORY '/ \

CA-- ANC TRAD j

AJThORiTIES J

STANOING

COMMfTTEE

(MEMBERS

FROM

BOTH

CHAMBERS)

EXECUTVE

SECOND CHAMBER

X) AFRICAN BACKGROUND GROUP

X) AFRIKAANS BACKGROUND GROUP

10 ASIAN BACKGROUND GROUP

10 ENGLISH BACKGROUND GROUP

V_ SOUTH AFRICAN GROUP

50

PRIME MINISTER* 10 MINISTERS

50% FROM' MAJORITY PARTY

50% FROM MINORITY PARTIES

LOCAL AND TRAD.

AUTHORITIES

LOCAL AND TRAD.

AUTHORITIES

LOCAL AND TRAD

AUTHORITIES

WQ"j"CrDC 18 YEARS OF AGE. RESIDENT IN NATAL AND KVWZULU

Schools would also be

desegregated.

CONSTITUENCIES

The province would be

divided into 15 constituencies for elections for

the first legislative

chamber, which would

consist of 100 seats. Voting would be based on

simple universal adult

suffrage through proportional representation.

The Prime Minister

would be the leader of

the party that secured an

overall majority in the

first chamber. He or she

would probably be black,

as would be the vast majority of the electorate.

The second chamber

would consist of 50 seats,

equally representing

African, Afrikaans, Asian

and English ethnic

groups. A fifth "South

African" group would

represent people who

chose not to vote on ethnic lines.

Mr Kane-Berman said

provision for the non-racial "South African"

group stressed the Indaba's concern for freedom

of association.

Legislation could be

vetoed in the second

chamber if a group felt

that the legislation would

adversely affect its culture or language. Disagreements would finally

be settled by the Supreme Court.

The provincial executive had been designed so

that all groups would

have a say. The Prime

Minister would appoint

five Cabinet Ministers

"from his own party. The

remaining five Cabinet

Ministers would be elected by the other parties in

proportion to their

strength in both chambcrs

COMMITTEES

Laws would only be ratified once accepted by

the chambers and the relevant standing committees. There would be one

standing committee for

each Minister and all

parties would be proportionally represented.

The standing committees would make decisions by a two-thirds majority decision, and no

single party would be allowed more than 60 percent representation.

Although the new government would control.

jmany important func-j

tions, vital areas such as |

foreign affairs, defence, j

national intelligence, police, prisons, railways

and harbours and water

affairs would remain

under the jurisdiction of

central government.

One of the major ques-:

tions about the new system is how it could possibly function within the

framework of apartheid']

at central government j

level.

Mr Kane-Berman said

he was convinced it could

work.

"The key to the Indaba

is its dynamic effect. I

have no doubt that if this

constitution is implemented it will provide i

political stability. ' "There would be investment in Natal and it

has the infrastructure for

growth. And soon there

would be pressure in

other parts of the country

for something similar."

/9274

CSO: 3400/626 81
SOUTH AFRICA

CHANGING FOREIGN PERCEPTIONS OF NATIONAL ECONOMY DISCUSSED

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 4 Dec 86 p 5

[Interview with John Battersby by Assocom President Raymond Parsons in London;

date not given]

[Text] BATTERSBY: How have perceptions of the short-term economic

outlook for SA changed since your

last trip abroad?

PARSONS: Perceptions have undoubtedly improved. Overseas

bankers and businessmen who

monitor closely the economic situation in SA point to a flow of better

economic news. They see signs of

an economic recovery — especially

in consumer spending. They have

experienced reports of improved

business profits, the massive surplus in the balance-of-payments on

the current account has been referred to and evidence that the capital outflow is slowing down.

Some expected growth of about

3% next year if current trends continue and, finally, there was the

assessment that the SA economy

has now adjusted to the political

and economic shocks of the past

two years.

HOW ARE bankers likely to respond to these improvements?

I THINK these perceptions are

confirmed by their intention to

seek more favourable terms when

the debt agreement comes up for'

renegotiation in mid-1987. Several

bankers believe SA will be in a

position to do more than it has been

able to do up until now.

But I have warned them that it

will still be a tough negotiation,

because SA will have to find a balance between the needs of domestic economic growth and the desire

to normalise external financial relations.

DO THESE improved perceptions

of SA's short-term economic future

mean foreign investors might return?

NO. A resumption of foreign investment would be premature at this

stage. What we are wanting in the

long-term is a_much clearer vision

of the political road-ahead if their

confidence is to be regained.

WHAT DO businessmen and bankers you spoke to think of the economic strategy agreed on by government and business at the

November 7 meeting?

THEY THINK it was necessary,

desirable and positive. But they are

saying that an economic strategy

needs to be supplemented by a

clear political strategy. If a new

economic strategy is to be truly

successful it must be implemented

against a background of stability

and real reform.

WHAT DID businessmen think

about government's decision to

shelve the President's Council report on the Group Areas Act and

reject the recommendation of the

Natal Indaba for a power-sharing

arrangement in Natal?

THERE IS acute disappointment,

but understanding, of these decisions. They ascribe these decisions

partly to the counter-productive

impact of intensified sanctions and

partly to their expectation of a

white general election in SA within

the next few months.

WHAT feedback did you get on the

way the private sector in SA is

responding to sanctions and disinvestment?

THE OVERSEAS business perception is that the private sector in SA

is handling the sanctions and disin82
vestment situation well and is even

turning it to its own advantage.

There is life after sanctions and

disinvestment, but the combination

of capital outflow and trade sanctions will place a ceiling on SA's

economic growth in the long-term.

WHAT VIEW have you formed on

the withdrawal of Barclays Bank

from SA?

I FOUND there were mixed opinions on Barclays, but the majority

perceived it as a special case. They

drew a distinction between financial institutions and manufacturing

companies which were less vulnerable to pressure. I believe that British and European companies are

very much more likely to resist the

pressure to withdraw.

A private survey I was shown

indicated that many British companies in SA were already doing

quite well in the economic upturn.

URBAN Foundation director Jan

Steyn has identified reform targets, which he has linked to a "realistic" timetable for reform. Do you

think this could be helpful?

I DON'T think government is in any

mood for timetables. I think business has an unusual role to play. I

think foreign business has a very

special task in terms of black advancement in SA.

But business in SA — like elsewhere — does not govern the country. But it can exercise influence

and persuasion up to the limits of

its power. And that is what we are

doing.

YOU HAVE spoken of an economic

upswing in SA. Do you think blacks

will benefit from this upswing—or

is it another white upswing?

BLACKS have been one of the reasons why the upswing has occurred,

because after June 12 they felt it

was safe to go about their daily

business. What you had was pent-up

consumer demand.

Where some forecasters went

wrong was that they forgot how

important black spending is in the

SA market. It is half. Sanctions actually hit the two areas where

blacks have gained most in the past

decade — their spending power and

in their collective bargaining.

ARE YOU saying then that the

state of emergency was just what

was needed?

THE STATE of emergency has stabilised the situation — it hasn't normalised it. This has meant that

both black and white consumers

have felt more secure and have

resumed their normal spending

pattern.

DO YOU think that business preoccupation with countering sanctions

has limited its capacity to pursue

its role as an agent for political

change?

WHILE business remains committed to change the immediate priority is survival. In the boardrooms

of SA they are saying that in order

to finance our commitment to

change and affirmative action we

need to neutralise sanctions.

SO THAT is the priority?

AT THE moment, sanctions-busting is the highest priority so that

we can afford reform and change.

Business wants to see apartheid

dismantled and not the economy so

that it will resist sanctions wherever possible.

/9274

CSO! 3400/627

83
SOUTH AFRICA

EXPERTS DEBATE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC MOTIVES FOR BUS

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 3 Dec 86 p 2M

[Article by Shirley Woodgate]

DESEGREGATION

[Text]

Partial or total desegregation of

•Johannesburg's buses is imminent, but experta ami politicians

disagree over whether the move

is political or economic.

National Party councillor and

vice-chairman of the Transportation Committee, Mr Jan van

Blerk, has said the motive is economic, but the experts are adamant that "open" buses will not

be an instant answer to the

enormous losses incurred by the

Transport Department.

"It will not solve the economic situation," said Mr Les Pettey, general manager of Johannesburg's Transport Department.

. There would be certain savings, but the main thrust would

be in providing a better service

for all races and in helping to

increase bus loads he said.

Last year's loss was more

than R17 million — Rl million

up on the 1U84/85 shortfall.

Of this amount R14 million

was incurred by the wiiite service and only R3 million by the

black ln-i-uiise it was hotter

used, said Mr Pettey.

The black service contributed only minimally to the department's budget, with Putco, the

railways and combi-taxis transporting the bulk of the black

passenger load into the city

from areas — notably Soweto —

where most of the blacks live.

INTEGRATION

What could be instantly alleviated by integration is the

problem of the empty white

buses — particularly at off-peak

hours — driving past long

queues of black commuters during the day. On the Other hand

black buses which run late at

night after white buses have

ended their run are not allowed

to pick up whites.

Johannesburg's transport department runs 376 white buses

on 100 routes and 70 black buses

on 12 routes. The bulk of the

passengers are white (130 000)

niul only about 43 000 black passengers are transportid dally

The railways transport

171 000 daily (37 000 whites and134 324 blacks), and Putco about

95 000 blacks daily from Alexandra and 86 000 from Soweto.

It is estimated that combi:

taxis share of the market now

stands at 14 000 every day —

passengers who are willing to

pay the higher price because of

speed, comfort, security and accessibility offered by combis.

The full reaction of white and

black passengers to the integration move is yet to be tested. No

surveys have been done and circumstances vary from city to

city, suburb to Suburb.

Nothing came of a challenge

in June last year by Mr Danie

van Zyl, chairman of the city's

Tranpqrtation Committee, when

he reacted to PFP pressure by

suggesting integrated buses on

only three routes: Dunkeld, Bel

levue/Yeoville and Parkhurst.-

Mr Pettey said at the time

that the Immediate reaction of

certain of the affected white

passengers who telephoned his

office was of apprehension.

Cape Town's buses are already open and Durban desegregated its whites-only bus service

early this month when all races

were allowed to travel on Blue

Line municipal buses.

This meant almost all buses

in Durban were integrated.

The move came after the

Durban Transport Management

Board had applied seven times

to the local Road Transportation Board for the whites-only

restriction to be lifted.

/9274

CSO! 3400/623

84
SOUTH AFRICA

STUDY REVEALS POSSIBLE DEATH OF MINING TOWNS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 28 Nov 86 p 2

[Article by Richard Bartlett]

[Text]

A STUDY has revealed that the

economies of three Western

Transvaal municipalities could

collapse within 20 years, as the

area becomes mined out.

The Klerksdorp/Orkney/Stilfontein (KOS) area will only survive as an economic region if industry develops independently

of the mining sector, the inquiry

shows.

The findings will be discussed

at a meeting today. Constitutional Development and Planning

Minister Chris Heunis and Local

Government, Housing and

Works Minister Amie Venter

will address the meeting.

Potchefstroom University

economic and management sciences dean Professor J J D

Havenga was the chairman of

the study, which pinpointed the

outflow of capital from the KOS

area as the most important factor inhibiting economic development.

Migrant labourers removing

capital in the form of wages, as

well as the flow of development

capital from companies to head

offices elsewhere in the country,

are the cause of this problern.

It is estimated that ^old reserves in the area will last another 20 years. Modern technology may allow ultna-deep

mining, in which case reserves

could last for a further 215 years.

State aid may also lengthen the

life of the mines.

Limited water supply from

the Vaal River may also limit

growth.

The intimate relationship between the mining sector and economic growth means development should vary according to

gold price variations. In practice, however, growth, buying

power and employment has remained constantsince the 1970s.

This shows that growth is stable and not entirely dependent

on mining, the study says.

/9274

CSO: 3400/627

85
SOUTH AFRICA

BICSA MEMBER COMPANIES INTEND TO STAY

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 28 Nov 86 p 2

[Text] LONDON — All 32 member-companies of the British Industry Committee on South Africa (Bicsa) say

they intend staying in SA.

This decision would, as was normal

business practice everywhere, be reviewed periodically in the light of financial considerations, a spokesman said

yesterday.

Bicsa made known its intention to

stay in SA at the same time that Courtalds announced it was not joining any

international exodus.

The company, had previously announced a strong increase in profits.

Courtaulds chairman Sir Christopher

Hogg said there was no question of a

pull-out.

Courtaulds owns two-thirds of the

South African wood pulp business, Saiccor. Courtaulds' pre-tax profits rose 35%

to £82m on turnover 4% higher at

£l,096bn

Three years ago the group raised

more than £70m by way of a rights issue

— mainly with a view to expanding in

the US. An opportunity failed to materialise, but there are rumours that Courtaulds might be about to buy the acrylic

business of US company Cyanamid.

Meanwhile, Bicsa — formed to represent British companies with interests in

SA — is stressing the positive side of

links with SA.

Speaking for the companies which had

decided to remain, it said that while

there was a general condemnation of

apartheid, the feeling was that it was

better to work for change from within

the country than to disinvest.

This is also current British government thinking, although British Prime

Minister Margaret Thatcher has made it

known she understood why Barclays decided to pull out.

While there is speculation that other

UK companies will follow Barclays at

some stage, Bicsa gives no indication

that it knows of such moves.

1921k

CSO? 3400/627

86
SOUTH AFRICA

SANCTIONS AFFECTING COAL EXPORTS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 2 Dec 86 pp 1, 2

[Article by Cherilyn Ireton]

[Text ] SANCTIONS have started to affect coal

exports.

Lateststatistics from the Minerals Bureau show that coal exports fell by 17,7%

to 3,18-million tons In September, compared with tonnages shipped from SA in

September last year.

Transvaal Coal Owners' Association

chairman Michael Hawarden says the

drop is "the first manifestation of sanctions.

"It was in September that we started

to feel the real effect of the Danish and

French bans. Until then we had been able

to maintain our high shipment rate," he

adds.

Coal exports for the first nine months

of 1986 totalled about 32-million tons and,

unless monthly sales pick up to 4,2-million tons for the rest of the year, exports

will fall short of 1985's record 44,7-million tons.

While there is already a definite dent

in exports, coal producers have warned

that the full effect, of French, Danish

/9274

CSO: 3400/627

and US sanctions will be gauged properly

only next year.

In addition to shrinking markets, exSinters have had to face tough competion from other countries, such as Colombia, and many have not realised their

original sales targets.

However, local sales picked up marginally to 10,95-miffion tons (10,58-milBon in September 1985) in September,

with overall production rising to 15,54-

million tons (14,96-million).

Coal exports fetched R224m (R294m),

with local sales earning R184m (R172m).

The statistics reveal that despite a

drop in gold production to 51879kg

§6 210kg), gold sales earned the country

l,5bn (Rl,4bn).

They also show tin production fell to

164 717kg (179 208kg) as major tin producers started trimming output as a result of the world oversupply. Tin exports

dropped to 84841kg (90669kg) and

earned Rl,2m (R2,lm). Local consumption fell to 62 562kg (81430kg), bringing in

Rim as opposed to R2,5m last year.

87
SOUTH AFRICA

RESERVE BANK BOLSTERS GOLD HOLDINGS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 5 Dec 86 pp 1, 2

[Article by Gerald Prosolendis]

[Text] THE Reserve Bank reinforced its

reserves by more than nine tons of

gold in November, reflecting SA's

continuing sound balance of payments position.

Further welcome news is that the

Bank has adjusted the seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product for the

third quarter upwards to an annual rate

of 4% from 3,5%. But Reserve Bank Governor Gerhard de Kock has repeatedly

6,00 ounces million

%%*&> 'Of f>w

warned that SA is not on the threshold of

a boom.

The Bank's physical holdings of gold

rose in November by 295 000 ounces to

4 836 000 ounces, despite the value of its

gold holdings dropping by R77,2m to a

total of R3,717bn.

The Bank's stock of gold bullion now

stands at its highest level since February

this year, when it amounted to 4 953 455

ounces. Since July, the Reserve Bank has

added 1162 000 ounces (about 36 tons) to

its gold reserves. In the first nine months

of this year, SA mines produced 457,9

tons of gold.

/9274

CSO.« 3400/623

£

However, the Bank's total gold and

foreign exchange reserves declined by

R505,4m to a total of R5,087bn.

This is partly explained by the decline

in the rand value of the gold holdings

which was entirely owing to valuation

adjustments resulting from a lower rand

price of gold for the month.. The decline

in the dollar price of gold was not

matched by a comparable decline in the

rand — the currency was marginally

stronger. The gold stock for November

was therefore valued at a rand price of

;old of R768.51 an ounce compared with

1835,51 in October;

"Our gold reserves are rising and if

this continues, and we have adequate

gold in London and Europe, we will reSlenish our Pretoria holdings," says De

lock.

He dismissed claims by London bankers that the rise in gold holdings was in

response to escalating sanctions.

"We would have replenished our gold

and foreign exchange holdings even ifthe

EEC and US had not imposed sanctions.

This was a policy decision taken some

time ago," he said.

In April the Reserve Bank swapped

about 500 000 ounces of gold ahead of the

first repayment on debt inside the standstill net, in case it needed more cash. At

the time, the understanding was that the

Bank would take back some of these

swaps into its gold reserves once the debt

payment had been made.

The decline in the Bank's foreign exchange holdings of R428m in November

is partly explained by a further repayment of R259m to the IMF in the first

week of the month.

Also, when the dollar price of gold

falls, the Reserve Bank's gold swaps are

re-evaluated, and the Bank tops up the

difference in dollars.

.88
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

MORE SMALL BUSINESSES URGED—Development of small businesses in SA could help

alleviate unemployment, which was the country's greatest economic problem,

Trade and Industry Minister Dawie de Villiers said yesterday. He was speaking at the announcement of the new Council for Small Businesses in Pretoria

yesterday. De Villiers said government had taken steps to give the entrepreneur his rightful place in the community. He added that the council

would advise government on small business policy issues and would be responsible for allocating public funds for training and other purposes. It would

evaluate legislation to identify inhibiting factors for small enterprises and

then advise the Competition Board. De Villiers said homelands would also be

represented on the council. [Text] [Article by Gerald Reilly] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 26 Nov 86 p 2] /9274

GROSS FARM INCOME FIGURES—The farming industry earned gross income of RIObn

in the year to June, says the Department of Agricultural Economics and

Markets In rand terms this is a record. The actual figure was R9,932bn,

which was 12% up on the 1984-85 figure of R8,857bn. Net income increased by

16% from Rl,848bn in 1984-85 to R2,146bn in 1985-86. Intermediate expenditure—on fertilisers, feeds, pesticides and other inputs—increased by R418m

to R4,207bn in the twelve months to June, In 1984-85, gross incomes increased by 15% to R8,857bn, net income by 35% to Rl,848bn, and intermediate

expenditure by 10% to R3,789bn. Agricultural union economist Koos du Toit

said yesterday that although the 1985-86 season was plagued by severe

drought some sectors had thrived. These included wool and mohair, deciduous

fruits, livestock and citrus. Crop farmers fared badly, with their debts

snowballing to record heights. [Text] [Article by Gerald Reilly] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 26 Nov 86 p 3] /9274

CSO: 3400/623

89
SOUTH AFRICA

STEEL COMPANY ESCAPES EC SANCTIONS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 86 p 14

[Article by Anthea Duigan]

[Text] With the imposition of sanctions, G Vincent has found itself in the

fortunate position of having products which are not subject to the sanctions

imposed by the European Community,

Over the past three years a shrinking in local demand prompted the company

to embark on an extensive export drive. The benefit of the drive has been

reaped over the past 18 months with a 2,000% increase in export turnover.

G Vincent, which manufactures cold rolled steel sections for the building and

allied industries, has numerous manufacturing divisions.

Turnover over the past 10 years has increased from R5,8m to R30m. The volume

of steel processed through the Elandsfontein factory has increased from 10,000

tons to 36,000 tons/year.

Much of the increased production can be attributed to the company's many

machines, which are designed and manufactured in~house by G Vincent staff.

In 1984 the company's single factory facility became too small, so a new factory site in Elandsfontein was bought and a modern expandable factory built to

house certain rolling mills and the heat exchange division.

In the middle of this year the company acquired an automatic steel servicing

plant, which has opened new avenues for both the domestic and the export markets.

No manpower is required once the steel sections or fabricated components have

been loaded on to the mechanical handling system.

From cutting, the material moves off automatically to be drilled to any predetermined configuration, A multi-head drill performs swiftly and accurately.

After the drilling stage the material is either ejected from the automatic

line or continues to the shot-blasting wheelabrator, where surface cleaning

can be completed to the correct specification.

90
The final stage is the painting booth, where the materials is primed prior

to packing and despatch.

The plant is suitable for all structural steel fabrication and volume-oriented

component manufacture.

Although repetitive volume is most suitable for the production facility, oneoff jobbing is possible.

The usual product range of cold-formed steel profiles includes GV longspan galvanised and pre^painted roof-sheeting, structural profiles such as

lipped channels, zeds, tophats, angles and numerous specials.

The Rondo range of suspended ceilings and Broadwal demountable partitions are

manufactured. Cable trunking, electric support systems, permanent shuttering

and many others are supplied to the building industry.

Specialised and ultra-heavy rollings bring heavy duty truck chassis members

and railway rolling stock components into the product range.

Initially the company quoted through local agents for export inquiries and

secured orders for roofsheeting for the Indian Ocean islands.

As a result of a survey visit to study steel-framed buildings in the Far East,

some valuable contacts were made and after many visits, long-term exclusive

distributorship agreements for suspended ceiling grids and demountable partitioning grid components were signed in Hong Kong and Taiwan,

However, the great impetus to export endeavours was in 1985, when the completed range of products including cold-formed structural sections, cable

trunking and special purpose sections were placed at the Spring Fair in

Cologne.

G Vincent has diversified in order to obtain the maximum contribution for its

asset base, and is continually looking for a bigger market for its products.

/9274

CSOt 3400/618

91
SOUTH AFRICA

LOW OIL PRICES HINDER SYNFUEL DEVELOPMENTS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 17 Nov 86 p 3

[Text]

SÄ MAY be facing ä choice of either

increasing existing oil refining capacity or of building another Sasoltype synthetic fuel plant, says Sasol's GM responsible for research

and development and process design, Theo van der Pas.

He told a Resources of Southern

Africa Conference in Johannesburg last

week that fuel consumption was growing and demand would soon outstrip the

existing capacity of Sasol and the crude

refineries. And neither the Mossel Bay

project nor using torbanite deposits

would provide a solution.

Van der Pas said the go-aheads for;

Sasol 2 and Sasol 3 had been relatively

easy decisions because of high oil prices.

Today the situation was different. The

oil industry was re-adapting to a situar

tion of free or over-supply and low

prices. Proved oil reserves had been

expanded. Energy-efficient technology

had sharply cut consumption.

Prices (in 1986 terms)"were expected

to rise slowly from now to 2000 to predicted high of $35 a barrel.

Van der Pas said the new era of cheap

oil, which had cast a pall over synfuel

developments worldwide, made decisions difficult for local planners. But

there were sound arguments for SA takCrude Oil Price

Price in 1986

$/barrel

Sasol Two I

decision

1970 1975 1980 1985

Crude Oil Price Projections

HIGH TREND

LOW TREND

'1970 1980 1990 2000

ing the synfuel route.

Additional oil-from-coal capacity

would enhance fuel self-suffiency and

foreign exchange savings. SA had large

deposits of low grade coal which could

be exploited, as well as the necessary

technical and manpower resources.

/6091

CSO: 3400/638

92
SOUTH AFRICA

NEW CAR SALES EMERGING FROM SERIOUS RECESSION

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 13 Oct 86 p 21

[Article by Madden Cole]

[Text]

SALES of new cars and

light commercial vehicles

have bottomed from their

historical low levels and

sales figures seem to confirm that the South African motor and allied in-.

dustries are gradually

emerging from what has : been the most serious recession in the history of

the industry, says Naamsa

director Nico Vermeulen.

New car sales for September at 15 091 units exceeded the IS 000 unit level for the fourth consecutive month, while light

commercial vehicle sales

reached 7 414 units. This

is the second highest.

monthly total this year

and sales exceeded the

7 000 unit level three

months in a row.

Mr Vermeulen points

out that the September

car and light commercial

sales remained well above

the monthly average sales

recorded in these sectors

during the first half of this

year.

Although sales of medium and heavy trucks and

buses at 385 and 601 units

have shown some improvement, he feels that

it would be premature to

talk about a rebound or

sustained improvement in

these two sectors.

He believes however

that the positive economic forces combined with'

recent official measures

to stimulate the economy

should underpin sales levels in the different sectors.

The unprecedented vehicle price increases

which had to be passed on

the consumers militates

against any dramatic improvement in new vehicle

sales in the months ahead

and is the single most significant deterrent to the

vehicle market returning

to more acceptable levels,

Mr Vermeulen says.

Nissan recorded an improvement of 8,9 percent

in total sales with a substantial 17,3 percent improvement reflected in

Nissan passenger vehicle

sales for September over

August 1986, says sales

director Mossie Mostert.

"It is very gratifying to

see the improved sales of

our products, particularly

considering that the company has a policy of not

discounting its products."

Leader in the passenger

car sales was Toyota with

3 770 units sold, followed

by Samcor/MMI with

3 425 and VW with 2 421.

Toyota also held first

place in the light commercial vehicle sales with a

total of 2 933 units sold.

Nissan with 1656 sales

was second and Samcor/MMI third with 1 531

units sold.

In the medium commercial sector Samcor/MMI sold 127 units, Toyota

108 units and GM 77

units.

Mercedes Benz again

dominated the heavy

commercial vehicle market with a sales figure of

208. Toyota followed with

118 units and GM with

89.

/6091

CSO: 3400/639

93
SOUTH AFRICA

DILEMMA FACING MOTOR INDUSTRY DISCUSSED

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 14 Nov 86 p 29

[Text] There is a strong likelihood that over the next three years the seven

motor vehicle manufacturers in South Africa will be reduced to five as the

projected markets are too small for the present seven manufacturers to obtain

even minimal returns, says the McCarthy Group chairman Brian McCarthy,

Although this would have serious consequences of additional unemployment, a

more viable motor manufacturing industry was essential for its long-term

growth, he said at the Investment Conference yesterday.

He points out that the manufacturers who lost an estimated R600 million last

year, are chasing a market of less than 200,000 passenger cars and 100,000

commercial vehicles. The result is a highly competitive market with margins

of both manufacturers and dealers under pressure,

Mr McCarthy says that manufacturers have a number of alternatives including

maintaining the business in its current form, disinvestment by liquidation,

disposing of business to a third party or merging with a competitor.

Just as there are too many manufacturers in the market, he feels too that

there are too many dealers. The approximately 2,000 dealers this year will

sell 270,000 units or 135 units a dealer a year, which is far below average

American sales figure of 400 units.

The withdrawal of two manufacturers from the South African market will result

in the closure of a considerable number of dealers, thereby increasing the

average sales of the remaining dealers. Regrettably this will also be at the

expense of increased unemployment, Mr McCarthy says.

Although South Africa is ranked 14th in the world in terms of vehicle registration and in terms of production, with a current replacement value of R70

billion for the currently 4.1 million registered vehicles, the market for

Whites is reaching saturation point at 500 cars per 1,000 people.

On the other hand, the Black ownership figure is a mere 17 units per 1,000

of population, but it has since 1976 grown by 7,1 percent a year compared with

only 0,7 percent for Whites,

94
Mr McCarthy notes that despite the Black taxi business today offering exciting potential to the motor business, the stage still has not been reached

where Black buying of new vehicles is having a major impact on the industry.

He points out that at present South Africa is not in a position to manufacture

a complete car or truck. But sources in the industry believe that if constraints of scale are ignored and investments are made to manufacture components which carry an uneconomically high cost premium, a car or truck with

close to 100 percent local content could be manufactured in this country in

about two years time,

The final result however will lead to artificially high vehicle prices and the

concern over further price hikes resulting from uneconomic investments con»

vinces Naamsa members that further compulsory increases in local content should

be avoided,

/9274

CSOf 3400/617

95
SOUTH AFRICA

CSIR PLANS TO PRODUCE TECHNOLOGY FOR INDUSTRY

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 29 Oct 86 p 12

[Text]

AFTER a year-long

review of its activities, the CSIR has announced plans to become an active producer of technology for

South African industry.

The Council for Scientific, and Industrial Research will become "an

important technology

partner of South African

industry," Dr Chris Garners, president and chief

executive officer of the

CSIR, said in a statement

released at a Press conference in Johannesburg yesterday.

One reason for the

move was that the CSIR

had to strengthen'its international scanning of

new technology and ability to transfer this to South

Africa in the current political climate, the release

said.

There wag. also a tension between the CSIR's

basic scientific research

and its contract work for

industry.

"Not enough attention

has been given to the im-

/9274

CSO: 3400/617

plementation of research

findings and seeing that

new technology was successfully transferred to its

sponsors. . . the predominant research culture has

been academically inclined in character, rather

tha» goal-orientated,"

die release said:

Adoption of the new

strategy^ meant the organisation'will market itself;

as service to industry that

will provide research, development and the technology itself.

"One of the main

thrusts Of the CSIR's effort to bring' it closer to

commerce and industry is

the adoption of initiatives

in the field of marketorientated technology development, transfer and

implementation."

This will involve "extensive realignment of its:

research and development, financial, budgetary, administrative and'

personnel policies to

suit". •

The CSIR review, conducted', by its executive,

was launched after last

year's government White;

Paper on an industrial development strategy foi

South Africa gave the

CSIR specific responsibilities for technology transfer and development to

boost the productivity of

industry.

The new direction,. ap>-

proved at CSIR council

meeting on October 16*

included the following

goals-.

• $0 develop and apply new or.adapted technology to ''strengthen

locak industry and commerce".

" •.To dp scientific; research into the production of technologies with

a high market value..

#Tot set up scientific

research facilities for

companies on a contractual basis.

• To. support the

training and work of toplevel scientists and engineers.

• To provide "purposeful" scientific and

technical information services.

Dr Garbers said this

week:

!

- "We. are striving to become a marketrorientated

organisation. Our objective is to help South African industry earn its optimum share of world trade

and to do this, we aim to

provide decision makers

with appropriate scientific

and technological input."

The CSIR would attempt to ensure the implementation of its work

in local and overseas markets, he said.

He said the CSIR recognised the need to cont

stantly improve its performance and keep South

Africa at the forefront of

technology in. selected

fields.

Top employees would

be "expected to manage

professionally and. their

performance would be as-?

sessed on relevant cost

benefit output criteria. ....

"The" strategy, involves

change for everyone at

the CSIR, but the exciting

feature of the changes required is that they are

constructive in nature,"

Dr Garbers said.

He added: "It will not

be necessary to retrench

staff at this stage . . . but

extensive human resource

development programmes win be undertaken."

96
SOUTH AFRICA

SANCTIONS TO PROVIDE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDUSTRY

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 30 Oct 86 p 12

[Text] SANCTIONS would provide interesting

opportunities for East Rand light industry, the Germiston Industries Association's secretary, Ian Uys, said.

He said as smaller operations were

more flexible they should be able to

adapt and slot into- any gaps left in the

market.

Uys said: "White a bigger company

cannot change procedures easily, a

small company can make use of a market opportunity:

"A certain type of screw, imported

from the US, could now be made by a

smaller-company with the ability to

adapt its machining."

The reason this had not happened in

the past was. the small local market,

Uys said: "While international companies* can produce millions of components the local company will only be

producing thousands.^

And; for that reason, sanctions could

provide a: mini-boom for light industry;

Uys said: "It makes* economic sense

for the small, light industrial' companies,

to stepin and make use of the opportunities."

Uysf organisationrepresents awrat 90*

companies in an area which extends

from Walkerville to Elandsfontein and

is one of the largest industrial areas in

the country.

He said: "We mainly represent the

larger companies but we are seeking

membership among the smaller ones as

we firmly believe we can best serve

their interests by speaking as a joint

industrial body."

It was important light industry join

the organisation because it could be advisedon matters such asindustrial relations with expertise gained in dealing

with larger companies.

Uys said* "The:smaller company's

main thrust is one of production, with

little timeor expertise to deal withother

problems."

His organisation has also seen an increase in the black light industry sector.

Uys said: "This could be termed the

light, light industry. It has been actively

encouraged by industry on the East

Rand.

la most cases, the black industrialists have been/trained on the various

techniques through on-job training at

one of the companies on the East Rand.

"Having acquired the skill and knowledge they branch out on their own whether it be to ä backyard operation or

complete factory situation.

He said this type of light, light industry incorporated businesses such as panel-beating; welding, fencing and burglar

bars.

However, Springs Chamber of Industries 6M Dick Goss said black light industry would only be actively encouraged in his area if it could compete in

price, quality and delivery.

He said: "It isimportant to remember

that these standards have to be met in

the.market place amfthat it should not

be mere tokenism."

Goss said companies in his area were

well versed in the market opportunities

that were provided by the introduction

of sanctions.

He said: "They would not be in business if they did not look at all the opportunites available to them."

The Board of Trade and Industries

chairman, Lawrence McCrystal, recently addressed a symposium at Rand Afrikaans University, and said small scale

industrial activities would benefit by the

deregulation programme introduced by

government

He said: "Government and the private

sector training schemes will also assist

to stimulate interest in starting businesses and may have to be adapted to

include the entrepreneurial element"

/9274

CSOJ 3400/618 97
SOUTH AFRICA

INDUSTRY'S ENERGY COSTS EXPECTED TO SOAR

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 3 Dec 86 p 3

[Article by Mick Collins]

[Text] INDUSTRY'S energy costs will

soar from their current cheap

base in SA to come more in line

with Western countries, economists predict.

Energy analysts at Wits University estimate that energy losses

across the country cost about

R600m a year.

Most at risk are the country's

export potential, retail prices, profit margins and employment opportunities.

Senior partner at Contech, Arnold Nelson, says over the past few

years the amount of energy consumed, as a percentage of manufacturing costs, was invariably low.

"This no longer applies. In the

manufacturing sector it is often 5%

of costs. In mining it can be 12% of

working costs, while in the ferroalloy industry it can be as high as

43 % of total costs.

"Clearly anything that can be

saved here will be of immediate

benefit."

Nelson urges a re-examination of

processes and questioning of why

they are done in a particular manner.

"The use of energy is no different

to that of any other manufacturing

function in this respect."

He says any energy audit can be

expected to lead to reductions of

10% in total energy costs.

"Later some capital expenditure

recommendations might well lead

to a further 10%. As with productivity improvements, these reductions are permanent.

"In addition they are inflation

proofed. The more resource cost

increases, the more you save. Savings in energy costs are immedi

ately reflected as increased profits/'

Nelson says: "In SA the first facf.

to be realised is that energy is no

longer cheap. The first approach

should be to conduct an investigation into what is happening to each

resource. Los3 areas must then be

uncovered and each loss quantified

so as to establish its relative cost."

/9274

CSO? 3400/618

98
SOUTH AFRICA

AFRIKAANS LINGUISTIC COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEM CREATED

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 10 Nov 86 p 23

[Article by Marilyn Cohen]

[Text]

ONLY days after the announcement of IBM's

withdrawal from South

Africa, the local subsidiary announced the development of a new product

aimed specifically at the

South African business

community — an Afrikaans linguistic support

system.

Afrikaans Linguistic

Support which is, at present to be included only in

the Display Write/370 system but which may, at a

later stage be made available down to PC level,

was developed by IBM

(SA) with extensive guidance from the IBM Advanced Office Systems

Technology group in the

United States.

The product will be

made available early in

1987. It is more than just

a dictionary of Afrikaans

words against which spelling can be checked, although some 187 000

words are included in the

dictionary.

However, also built

into the support are many

words which are common, although not frequently used, such as

names, places, countries,

cities, currencies and

units of measure and

time.

The system will thus

help the user either verify

the spelling of a word to

provide assistance as to

the correct spelling of the

word.

/9274

CSO: 3400/619

However, two other

features which provide information not obtainable

from ordinary dictionaries, are automatic hyphenation and compound-word validation.

The product has all the

information needed to hyphenate Afrikaans words

correctly.

In the Afrikaans language, words are often

made up of a combination

of two or more words and

these can be validated using the Afrikaans dictionary support. The product

has been designed to recognise that certain words

can appear either as a

stand-alone word or as

part of a compoundword.

In addition, the user

can compile his own addenda dictionary —words

which are related to a

specific topic or which are

unique within a company

or business which do not

appear in the main dictionary.

AN electronic typewriter said to offer the small

businessman or woman

many of the most commonly used word-processing facilities at a fraction

of the usual cost, has been

released by iVIicrotel.

The Smith Corona

XD8000 will pick up misspelled words, suggest an

alternative spelling, erase

the incorrect word and replace it with the correct

one.

It has a dictionary of

75 000 commonly used

words and space for a further 2 500 which can be

added by the user.

In addition, the machine has a standard

memory of 16 000 characters which can be increased to 32 000 by plugging in a cartridge on the

side of the typewriter.

Text put into memory can

be called up on a 24

character display window

and can be edited at will

before it is printed out.

Software built into the expansion cartridge enables

the machine to merge : names and addresses for:

mailing purposes.

The XD8000 can also

be used as a daisywheel

printer when linked to a

computer and it has a variety of typefaces and

pitches.

Further versatility is an

upgrade to full text processing by linking it to the

Smith Corona Personal

Word Processor (PWP

12). The immediate benefit is that the PWP 12 has

a 65 000 character memory which can be stepped

up in increments of 64 000

characters to infinity by

using plug-in microwafers.

The PWP has a fullsized microcomputer

screen and a menu which

presents the user with

eight options including

create text; edit text; set

99

margins; print text; store

text to microwafer; recall

documents from microwafer, microwafer directory and initialise new

microwafer.

The cost of the upgrade

is R2 295 which, when

added to the cost Of the

typewriter, about R2 000,

provides full text processing for under R4 500.

• • *

OLYMPIA has introduced the Olytext 20, a

screen-based system

which combines the functions of a typewriter, text

processor and communi-'

cations system.

A modular system, it

comprises a central processing unit with integral

disk drive, monitor, keyboard and printer. Alternatively, Olympia's Office Line range of electronic typewriters can be

connected as input/output

devices thus saving keyboard and printer costs.

Designed as "an electronic typewriter with a

word processor as standard equipment", the

Olytext 20 eliminates the

need to learn a complex

language or follow difficult procedures.

The text processor can

also operate WordStar,

MailMerge, Supersort,

SpellStar and various

other packages offering

spreadsheets, database

management and communications
SOUTH AFRICA

ISCOR ACHIEVEMENTS, PLANS DISCUSSED

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 29 Oct 86 p 9

[Article by Hamish Mclndoe]

[Text] Casting a pall over Iscor's record profits posted this week is the

prospect of a wrenching bottom-line drop in the current term.

The local steel market is not an arena for growth, and a run of steel sanctions from key trading partners since last month threatens Iscor's foreign

earnings.

If this is not headache enough, the world steel market is set to reach a

plateau over the next two years after a demand rise of a mere 1% in 1985.

And the oversupply in the world steel industry has led to a barrage of antiimport measures—quotas, voluntary restraint agreements and subsidies. The

net effect for Iscor in fiscal 1987 would appear to be an earnings drop, and

the chance of government receiving a share dividend hanging in the balance—

R65m was ploughed into State coffers by Iscor last year.

Iscor's group profits climbed to

R172m from R24m on a 25% turnover:

increase to R3,9bn in its fiscal year to

June 31.

The pathfinder for thisremarkable

performance was a sharp rise in steel

sales and higher income from iron

ore exports, coupled with good housekeeping and productivity improvements, the chairman's review says.

Post-sanctions Iscor will not publish detailed breakdowns of its operations, but it is thought about 60% —

more than 3-million tons — of its

steel sales are consumed locally.

Despite Pretoria's attempt to reactivate the economy, Iscor chairman Floors Kotzee has noted with

concern a 25% slump in motor sales,

a declining property market, and expenditure curbs by Sats, Escom and

Water Affairs.

Generaly low economic, activity

caused a 3% drop in local steel demand after a 13% fall in Iscor's 1985 i

fiscal year.

On the flip side, Iscor expects to

clinch a "substantial share in the

construction of Soekor's off-shore

fuel rig at Mossel Bay and is developing new speciality steels for the project, says MD Willem van Wyk.

Kotzee adds that Middelburg Steel

& Alloys and Highveld Steel & Vanadium could not make the steels need

for the rig.

Iscor will not raise its steel prices

again this year. Despite heavy sniping from steel converters, Iscor insists that hikes have been pegged

well below the inflation rate — and

without a sacrifice to profitability.

SA ranks about 14th in the world

steel-making league, with Iscor exporting to about 80 countries.

100
Foreign exchange earnings on Iscor's steel exports in fiscal 1985

amounted to R923m, against R488m

previously. Last year's foreign earnings may have passed the Rlbn

mark, because most of Iscor's

400 000-ton increase in steel product

sales to 5,7-million tons was probably

landed overseas.

This year's loss of 582 000 tons of

steel to the US under Washington's

import-restraint agreement with

Pretoria, and an import quota of

about 350 000 tons to the European

Community (EC), will hit Iscor — and

others — hard.

As the review quietly puts it "Ecc

nomic sanctions by traditional trading partners will affect Iscor detrimentally. However, alternative

markets have been developed and

will be utilised to best advantage."

On the iron ore front, Iscor increased marginally its Sishen exports by 3,4% to 9-million tons —

again on undisclosed earnings (1985

revenue R246m).

As matters stand, the iron man*

date on sanctions does not cover iron

ore. But heavy oversupply and pricing pressures' from EC and Japanese

steelmakers are expected to adversely affect producers' bargaining

stance when talks start early next

year for the key 1987 delivery, says

Iscor GM (mining) Ben Alberts.

Iscor increased sharply its pig iron

sales to 501000 tons from 181000 tons

in fiscal 1985 — it is not clear, however, what percentage of this will be

lost through sanctions this year.

The corporation's capex bill rose

by R125m to R355m, but all projects

are to be limited to the modernisation and rationalisation of facilities.

"We're not increasing capacity"

Van Wyk says.

No major steel-relatedcapital projects were completed last year. Van

Wyk discloses, however, that the hotstrip mill at the Vanderbijlpark

works will be modernisedat a cost of

R300m over the next four years.

/6091

CSO: 3400/638

101
METAL INDUSTRIES BATTLE TO SURVIVE 5-YEAR SLUMP

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 13 Oct 86 p 13

[Article by Frank Jeans]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

The steel and engineering industries, battling to survive a fifth

year of slump conditions and

hard hit by the imposition of

overseas sanctions on iron and

steel, have mounted a high

pressure advertising campaign

overseas and approached ambassadors of the country's major

trading partners in a bid to turn

the situation around.

This was said by Mr R Mason,

president of the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of

South Africa (Seifsa) at the annual general meeting today.

Spelling out the difficulties

facing industry today, particularly as a result of the political

situation, Mr Mason said there

had been a strong spillover into

the workplace with frequent

stayaways, work stoppages and

strike action to the point where,

the maintenance of normal production levels became extremely difficult.

"While the State of Emergency had resulted in a marked reduction in industrial action, the

detention of many trade union

leaders had a very negative impact on the functioning of industrial relations procedures," he

said.

"However, present indications

are that, in most areas, industrial relations structures are now

returning to a degree of normality."

Urging the Government to

move forward in achieving a

more just society, the Seifsa

president said the decision to

impose sanctions oh iron and

steel would have a "direct negative impact on our industry".

"Seifsa has strongly opposed

this action through an overseas

advertising campaign and representations to ambassadors of

our major trading partners," he

said.

Referring to the recessionary

conditions, Mr Mason said the

failure of the expected upturn in

the economy to materialise

meant that the slump within the

metal industries was now in its

fifth year.

On the one hand, those sectors

involved in consumer durables,

agricultural machinery and the

development of the country's infrastructure, have had to function well below capacity, while

on the other, the traditional exporters such as steel^and ferro

alloys and those sectors servicing the gold mining industry

have experienced buoyant conditions.

Returning to the labour question, Mr Mason said: "Despite

the criticism of Seifsa for its alleged inflexibility on plant bargaining, there is today considerable commitment to the Industrial Council on the part of all

trade unions.

"This is not to say that all

problems have been resolved

and it is evident that much distrust from the past has to be

overcome.

"The major trade unions representing black workers have

been prepared only to make

agreements in the council to a

very limited extent.

"Many factors are playing

their part in this, not the least of

which is the extremely difficult

and prevailing political and economic conditions. Probably the

fundamental problem is the failure of the parties in the council

to resolve the question of levels

of bargaining."

Another area of concern for

Seifsa is the "limited progress in

training" non-white apprentices

and figures reveal that during

1985 only 331 blacks, 278 Asians

and 316 coloured people entered

the industries, compared with

2 837 whites.

/6091

CSO: 3400/638

102
SOUTH AFRICA

PLASTIC INDUSTRY PRODUCTION THRIVING

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 25 Nov 86 p 21

[Text]

PRODUCTION of plastic goods is

>one of the bright spots in South

^Africa's manufacturing sector,

Government figures show.

Production in July this year was

18% higher than six years ago — a

performance matched only by manufacturers of beverages and of paper

and paper products.

On the index basis that 1980 production volumes equal 100, manufacture

of plastic products in July reached

118,4 compared with 117,2 in June,

113,4 in May and 123,6 in July 1985.

The overall index figure for 1985 was

123,9, the best figure in any manufacturing sector.

Employment and production capacity utilisation is, however, down —

the result of increased capacity, productivity improvements and greater

efficiency.

j According to Stellenbosch Univer-

! sity^s Bureau for Economic Research 1 (BER), manufacturers of plastic products operated at 77,5% of capacity in

the first quarter of this year, compared with 78,3% in the correspond-1

ing 1985 quarter and 86,4% in 1984. i

In the third quarter of this year,:

only 1% of companies were operating

at full capacity. : ; • )

The industry employed approxi-j

mately 22 700 workers at the end of!

June this year, compared with 23 700 j

in 1985 and 26 000 in 1984. j

Those workers still employed, however, have enjoyed one of the highest:

average pay increases of any industry. ■■;•_ !

Government statistics include the

plastics industry in a general group

with chemical, petroleum, coal and;

rubber products. j

This "group increased average'

wages by 14% between March 1985

and March this year — from R2,69 an

hour to R3,06. The next biggest increase was the 13,5% average awarded in the food, tobacco and beverages

industries. .

' The Cape'remains the best payer,

according to government figures.

Average wages in the province rose

16% last year to R3.18 an hour. Transvaal wages rose 14,25% to R3.05, and

those in Natal by 13,5%Jo R3,03. ,...

/6091

CSO: 3400/638

103
SOUTH AFRICA

LIQUIDATIONS IN VARIOUS INDUSTRIAL SECTORS SURVEYED

Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR FINANCE in English 2 Nov 86 p 9

[Article by Malcolm Fothergill]

[Text] The first sectorby-sector survey of liquidations carried out in South

Africa shows how disastrously the construction industry

has been hit by the years of

recession.

It also shows a high and rising rate of failures in the

manufacturing sector and a

dismal picture in the fi*- ;

nance, insurance, realestate and business-services

sector.

The survey, by Dun & Bradstreet» is for the month of

September,

Among its dark clouds it

contains a silver lining

in the fact that the total

number of liquidations that

month (229) was slightly

up on August's 205 but below 1985's average monthly

total of 255.

UftlfPftflORS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR FCRUt ffifffli StflPBER 1986

SOURCE | flUW r BRADSTWEET

The worst-off sector of the economy according to the September figures is

construction, which provided 28.4 percent of the country's failed businesses,

Next come finance, insurance, real estate and business services, which provided 27,9 percent.

104
Failures in the manufacturing sector are increasing fact, from 29 in August

to 40 in September, when they accounted for 17.5 percent of the firms that

bit the dust.

The wholesale and retail sector, which made up 10.5 percent of September's

victims, shows an opposite trend. Failures in this sector were down from 78

in July to 24 in September, presumably because of the impact of increased consumer spending.

Dun & Bradstreet managing director Mr Paul Edwards says the pace of the

present upturn is not yet sufficient to save many marginal companies.

The outlook for construction in particular is dismal, he says, as the level

of fixed investment continues to decline.

/9274

CSOi 3400/620-

105
DEVELOPMENT PLANS FOR MOSSEL BAY DESCRIBED

Cape Town WEEKEND ARGUS in English 25 Oct 86 p 15

[Article by Anthony Doman]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

SUDDENLY the knowing

smiles have become broad

grins as Southern Cape

speculators hit paydirt with

their Mossel Bay land deals.

The sleepy coastal town is

awake and buzzing with activity now that the site for Mossel

Bay's multi-million rand gas

project has been announced;

ending months of speculation:

Long-range plans can now be

set in motion, say developers

and town council officials.

Bnt even before the official

announcement this week, the

location of the refinery complex seemed to be an open secret.

While the authorities were

tight-lipped, locals spoke about

the site chosen from the shortlist of three of the original

eight proposals."

In gently rolling farmland

14km out of Mossel Bay on the

Cape' Town road, the site is a

few minutes' drive from the

centre of town and from the

main through-route.

Housing and commercial developments are mushrooming

along this stretch of road.

Revitalised

A new shopping centre —

unusually large for this part of

the country — wasn't.there a

year ago. And a national supermarket chain is reported- to

have bought a site nearby in

preparation for its first venture into the area.

The town — which looked

set to fade slowly away after

the rebuilt N2 became a bypass

— has been revitalised. Housing and industrial sites are up

for grabs, roads are being torn

up and rebuilt and big developments are planned for the town

centre.

Along the N2 to George;

scarred hillsides opposite the'

nearby holiday village of Hartenbos are the scene of feverish

activity by building contract

tors.

And in Mossel Hay itself land

is being sold off regularly by

the municipality. .

"There is no shortage of buyers," said Mossel Bay municipality Liaison Officer Mr Arthur Johnson.

He said lots of land was still

available "but we don't want to

flood the market."

The town's future as a. holiday resort also seems assured.

"Öig guns"

A beachfront hotel has been

taken over by a major chain as

the "big guns" move in.

A hotelier in the coloured

area of D'Almeida said her attorneys were watching the situation carefully.

"We're not sure what the ittiplications are' for us," she said.

"But we are expecting lots of

development here too. Many

people have already moved in

from out of town and I think

we will need more land here

soon."

Others are also looking at increased demand.

Mr Jan van Heerdeh says the

a R6-miIlion "park home'* complex which he runs will not be

enough to satisfy the demand:

"We've sold a third of the

units, mainly to retired people

and holidaymakers," he said.

"But the owner is negotiating

a deal with a major company

to provide accommodation for

Its workforce".

He said people were streaming into the town.

But not everybody was in favour of the boom.

"Some of the locals don't

want this place to expand.

They want it to stay a quiet little seaside town," said Mr van

Heerden.

"But they are in the minority. And they can't stop progress".

/9274

CSO: 3400/620 106
SOUTH AFRICA

NEW R600M PLANT FOR SINTERING ORE

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 11 Nov 86 p 14

[Text] One of the participants in this year's State President's Export

Awards, Samancor, is establishing a plant for the sintering of manganese ore

at its Maraatwan mine.

The plant, together with all its facilities, will cost R60m, and will be completed in 1988.

Sintered ore has a number of advantages over lumpy ore, and its production

will significantly improve the cost-effectiveness of Samancor's manganese

alloy operation, says the company.

Further advantages include a reduction in production costs, a higher manganese content, a reduction in electric energy consumption for alloy production,

a decrease in carbon reductant requirements and furnance manintenance costsf

and an increase in furnace and electric load availability.

The new plant will have a capacity of 500,000 tons/year, and was sited at

Mamatwan for cost reasons.

The decision to proceed with the sinter plant forms part of a programme of

systematically evaluating alternate technologies, compatible with existing

production facilities to decrease production costs while simultaneously increasing capacity, says Samancor.

/9274

CSOJ 3400/618

107
SOUTH AFRICA

TRACTOR, AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY MANUFACTURERS REPORT LOSSES

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 25 Nov 86 p 9

[Article by David Furlonger]

[Text]

TRACTOR and agricultural

machinery manufacturer»

havelost about R130m in five

years because of drought and

inflation.

The SA Agricultural and Irrigätion Machinery Manufacturer» and Distributors Association

(Saaimmda) says manufacturers

«retalking of full-scale industry

rationalisation- as. the only

means of survival

A-survey among its members

has shown losses this year are

expected to- equal last; year'sR42m. Since. 1981, when pre-tax

profits hit a record R40m, the

industry has consistently- lost

money — R14,5m in 1982, RU,5m

in 1983.R25,4m in 1984 and R42m

in 1985:

During the same time, industry employment has dropped by

nearly 50%.

Manufacturers say the

chances of the market ever returning to the heady days of 1981,

when nearly 25 000 tractorswere

sold, are sum. Tractor Manufacturing Association members expect to sell fewer than 5 000 new

tractors this year, and predict

the market in future will climb

no higher than 10 000.

Saaimmda's commercial

marketing. division chairman

Bill Hubbard says this clearly

shows the market can no longer

Iff01

.

. f%^pswlWVHWI

Equipment

82 83 84 85 88 8§1

as..§

e

in o. o". •» oe- i

Of «§ I &

2 3

support all the manufacturers

still doing business in SA.

The survey shows manufacturers believe the market can

support no more than three —

' compared to the 14 who are here.

Hubbard says: "I think the

need for rationalisation is far

greater in the tractor and agricultural equipment business

than among the truck or car

manufacturers."

He says it: is not only the

drought that has damaged sales.

In addition to the recession and

the increased cost.of imported

parts because of. the weakened'

rand, the inflation rate has

played a major role

/9274

CSO» 3400/618

108
SOUTH AFRICA

MOTOR INDUSTRY LOSSES REPORTED

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 13 Nov 86 p 2

[Article by David Furlonger]

INBMI [Text] MOTOR industry officials are deeply split

on how much the industry will lose, this

year.

The more- optimistic

predict combined manufacturers' losses of

RIOOm. Others believe

the total could be higher'

than last year's R500m.

There is broader agreemsnt, however,

-that if exchange rates remain steady

and the present rate of retail price increases continues, many companies will

be trading profitably next year.

Lay-offs, short-time working, price increases, cutting of overheads and a more

stable exchange-rate have all contributed to a sharp cut in manufacturers'

costs.

Car prices have-risen by more than

30% this year as manufacturers have

sought to recoup heavy losses caused by

exchange rate-related import bills.

BMW marketing director Vic Doolan

says: "Most companies will be profitable

next, year if the rand stabilises, price

increases continue and car sales for the

year remain in the 180 000-200000

range."

Industry sources say combined losses

for this year will be governed largely by

the local management buy-out of General Motors. The US parent has guaranteed to pay off the company's debts and

present the new management with aclean balance-sheet

The most pessimistic forecast by Nissan, is for/a combined loss of between

R400m and R600mc And while a spokesman believes some companies may

move into the black next year, he expects the industry to remain in the red.

A.GM spokesman says he expects industry losses to lag behind last year's

only slightly, but Toyota marketing director Brand Pretonus is confident the

total will be well below 1985 levels.

However, National Association of

Automobile Manaufacturers (Naamsa)

director Nico Vermeiden cautions that

short-term profits must be weighed

against long-term losses and debts.

Several manufacturers say they are

already trading profitably, if only on a

month-by-monthoasis.

Mercedes-Benz CE Jürgen Schrempp

confirms his company is trading in the

black after several months of losses

punctuated by industrial strife at the

East London assembly plant

/9274

CSO: 3400/618

109
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

WIDENING OF BEN SCHOEMAN HIGHWAY—A R41m, 30-month contract for the upgrading

and widening of the Ben Schoeman Highway has been awarded to Rand Roads,

transport Deputy Director-General Ronnie Meyer said in Pretoria yesterday.

The road is to be converted into a reinforced concrete highway with six

lanes—three in each direction. An additional lane will be built on uphill

stretches. The distance covered by the upgrading operation is 21 km, from

the Buccleuch interchange to the Brakfontein interchange. Meyer said the

actual cost at current prices would be R28m. When cost escalations and contingencies were taken into account, however, the ultimate cost would be

about R41m. [By Gerald Reilly] [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in

English 7 Oct 86 pi] /6091

LINED STEEL PIPES—A local research programme has led to the introduction of

a new range of PVC-lined steel pipes, which combine the corrosion resistance

and flow benefits of plastic, with the strength of steel. Manufacturer

Illman Plastics hopes the pipes will find a ready market in the mining

industry, where corrosive water is a common problem. Says a company spokesman: "Its introduction follows a study which showed that a PVC-lined steel

pipe could be manufactured cheaper than its galvanised equivalent." The

company has also successfully begun manufacture of a new range of preinsulated steel pipes, designed to eliminate the costly and time-consuming

practice of insulating pipes underground. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY

in English 25 Nov 86 p 18] /6091

ICE PLANT TO COOL MINE—The world's largest ice plant has been established by

the Rand Mines group to cool underground working conditions at its Harmony

gold mine at Virginia, Free State. Developed and built at a cost of R7.2m,

the plant is claimed to be i major breakthrough in mining-ventilation technology. Situated on surface at Harmony's Merriespruit No 1 shaft, the plant

produces 1,000 tons of ice daily, in particles measuring 70mm x 70mm x 10mm.

The ice is conveyed to the shaft and down a pipe-line to a reservoir about

1,000m underground, where it is sprayed with hot water from the mine's

underground water-reticulation system. Says Harmony MD Mike Watson: "As a

result, the water at the work faces is cooled down considerably. Working

conditions thus become far more tolerable, and productivity and safety are

improved." Apart from these benefits, the ice-plant system of cooling has

cost advantages. Normally, refrigeration plants—either underground or on

surface—are used to cool mine water. The cost of pumping water to the

110
surface for recooling is high. On the other hand, underground refrigeration plants generate a lot of heat which must be removed by ventilation

fans—also at high cost. The ice-cooling method is a cost-efficient

alternative. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 8 Oct 86 p 12]

/6091

MINTEK AWARDED FOR TECHNOLOGICAL ACHIEVEMENT—The Council for Mineral Technology (Mintek) has won the premier award for achievement in science and engineering given by the Associated Scientific and Technical Societies of SA (AS

& TS), The award is in recognition of Mintek1s part in the development of the

carbon-in-pulp gold extraction process, which earns SA more than R200m a

year in additional revenue, A commemorative plaque was handed to Mintek

president Aidan Edwards at a banquet in Johannesburg last night. AS & TS

president Roy Perry said application of the technology had increased the

production of SA's most precious resource, and was more than 30% cheaper in

capital and runing costs than conventional methods. [Text] [Johannesburg

BUSINESS DAY in English 14 Nov 86 p 3] /9274

ESCOM STEPS UP RURAL VOLTAGE—ESCOM plans to spend R300m on rural electrification next year in order to meet growing consumer demand. An extra R25m

will be spent on the scheme by the end of this year. Chairman John Maree

says this portion has become available as a result of savings in operating

and capital expenditures, "We are committed to bringing electricity to the

whole country and upgrading the quality of life," he said. He said Escom will

have erected more than 13,500km of reticulation lines in 1986, to supply about

8,400 rural customers, at a cost of R230m. Maree said the corporation was

increasing the number of estimated new customers for 1986 from 7,500 to 8,400

as part of a major drive to meet increased customer demand. He said by next

year a total of 78,800 rural customers would be receiving electricity. [Text]

[By Mick Collins] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 3 Dec 86 p 3] /9274

NEW RANGE OF TIRES LAUNCHED—A new generation of high performance car tyres—

the first of their kind to be made in SA—was launched by General Tyres at the

weekend. Produced by the General Tyre factory in Port Elizabeth, the new

range will carry the prestige continental brand from Germany and will boost

the South African tyre market, eradicating the need to Import high performance

tyres. Tony Versfled, General Tyre's chief executive, Tyre Division said:

"The premium continental brand tyre, one of the finest tyres available in the

world today are being produced now in our own factory equal in every respect

to the overseas product." "Eight years ago we signed an initial technical

service agreement with Conti whereby technology, know-how and manufacturing

expertise was to be provided to the South African company for a period of 5

years." [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 10 Nov 86 p 3] /9274

ANTARCTIC SUPPLY VESSEL RETURNS—Cape Town—South Africa's Antarctic supply

ship, the SA Agulhas, returned from Gough Island yesterday. Scientists on

board carried out a number of surveys in the southern ocean and an unmanned

weather station was established, A spokesman for Sea Fisheries said the unmanned station was established on Inaccessible Island and 13 weather buoys

were also dropped in the ocean. Seal counting was done on a number of islands and scientists also made a study of a number of birds. The Agulhas

will leave for the Southern Ocean on the December 4. [Text] [Johannesburg

THE CITIZEN in English 29 Oct 86 p 9] /9274

111
PLATINUM REFINERY EXPANDED—In March 1972, Rustenburg Platinum Mines and

Johnson Matthey formed a joint company—Matthey Rustenburg Refiners—to refine all the material produced by Fustenburg Platinum mines. Processing

operations at that time were carried out in the UK and SA. The newly-formed

company acquired the existing plant at Wadeville from Johnson Matthey Refiners. Subsequently, the Wadeville plant plant has been expanded to meet the

increased production from Rustenburg Platinum Mines, and also because a larger

percentage of the refining activity has been transferred to SA. The Wadeville

refinery receives a concentrate containing platinum group metals from the

base metals refinery at Rustenburg—where separation of the nickel-copper

matter from the platinum group metals takes place. The concentrate is then

further refined to separate the platinum group metals—namely: platinum,

palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, osmium and iridium—and to bring them to a

high degree of purity before shipment abroad. [Text] [Johannesburg BUSINESS

DAY in English 27 Oct 86 p 10] /9274

BUILDING INDUSTRY ON DECLINE—The latest building industry statistics show

that the industry moved deeper into recession in the first nine months of this

year. Central Statistical Services figures show that building plans passed in

the January-September period decreased 15.8% to R3.056 bn, compared with the

same period last year. Worst-hit were Pretoria-, down 34.1%; Durban, 31.7%;

Witwatersrand, 15,8%; Vaal Triangle, 14.4%; and the Cape, 13.4%. In this

period, plans passed for houses increased 19% to Rl,219bn. But the value of

plans for flats and townhouses plunged 38.4% to R204,9m. For non-residential

buildings, plans decreased by 40,7% to R648.6m. Value of buildings completed

in this period fell 0,9% to R2,829bn. The largest decreases occurred in the

urban areas of Port Elizabeth with 21.9%; Durban 29.7%; Maritsburg 30%; Vaal

Triangle 26.7%; Pretoria 12.3% and "other urban areas" 19.5%. [Text]

[Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 25 Nov 86 p 23] /9274

AIRCRAFT TRADING COMPANY CREATED—Ancom Jet Aviation Limited—due for listing

on The Johannesburg Stock Exchange on Thursday—has just formed another group

company in conjunction with an associate, Helicopter Logistics. The new

company, Omega Aviation Traders, will operate both nationally and internationally in buying and selling aircraft and helicopters. It has already

secured two helicopters overseas which are currently being brought into the

country for refurbishing and eventual sale. Separately, Anjet—which is

based at Rand Airport and Lanseria—has also landed itself with another high

technology task--rebuilding and refurbishing the civilian version of TV's

"Air Wolf"—a Bell 222. The machine crashed in the United States suffering

considerable damage—but not enough to discourage Anjet specialists from tackling the repair work. The helicopter is currently being shipped from the

United States and will arrive in about a month's time. High technology Anjet

specialises in renovating jet engines and helicopters and its capabilities

have attracted national and international attention. The company has just

successfully concluded a private placing of 4,000,000 ordinary shares at 35

cents a share, underwritten by the stockbrokers Kaplan & Stewart. [Text]

[Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 3 Nov 86 p 23] /9274

CSO: 3400/619 END

112