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JPRS-SSA-87-008

29 JANUARY 1987

Sub-Saharan Africa Report

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JPRS-SSA-87-008

29 JANUARY 1987

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REPORT

CONTENTS

INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS

Implementation of Luxembourg Resolution Discussed

(BUSINESS TIMES, 1 Dec 86) , 1

ANGOLA

Portuguese Settlement in Huila Described

(Jorge Heitor; AFRICA HOJE, Apr 86) 3

Briefs

Malawi's Explanation Called 'Insufficient' 5

ETHIOPIA

Power Struggle Within Top Leadership Alleged

(INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER, 6 Dec 86) 6

Renovation of Kebele 13 Slum Described

(THE HERALD, 19 Dec 86) 8

IVORY COAST

Briefs

Barclays Bank Agreement Signed 11

LIBERIA

Briefs

Officials Probed for Election Fraud 12

- a -
MOZAMBIQUE

Sober Political Style of President Chissano Analyzed

(DIAR10 DE NOTICIAS, 2, 7 Dec 86) 13

Effect on Political Scene, by Augusto de Carvalho 13

Style Described, Editorial 15

Outside Forces Seen as Ruining Nation's Chances of Recovery

(Annette Seegers; LEADERSHIP, No 6, 1986) 17

Beira Port Still Functioning Despite Power Cuts

(THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE, 19 Dec 86) 22

MNR Said To Be Waging Propaganda War Through Publication

(P. Neergaard; MOTO, No 50) 23

Captured MNR Bandit Describes Camp in Zomba, Malawi

(THE SUNDAY MAIL, 21 Dec 86) 25

NAMIBIA

Utility Corporation Turned Over to Provisional Government

(DIE VADERLAND, 24 Oct 86) 26

Emphasis in Guerrilla War Shifts to Civic Action

(Jaap de Bruyn; DIE TRANSVALER, 17 Oct 86) 27

NIGERIA

Tambo Asks for Increased ANC Aid

(DAILY TIMES, 3 Dec 86) 30

Commonwealth President, Babangida on Front Line State Aid

(DAILY TIMES, 22 Nov 86) 31

Large Influx of Aliens Reported

(DAILY TIMES, 24 Nov 86) 32

Babangida Warns Officers Against Misconduct

(DAILY TIMES, 29 Nov 86) 33

Babangida on Rationale Behind National Youth Corps

(DAILY TIMES, 6 Dec 86) 34

Development Minister Inaugurates National Youths Committee

(Chuks Nwosu; DAILY STAR, 26 Nov 86) 35

Babangida on Need To Diversify Revenue Base

(DAILY TIMES, 9 Dec 86) . 3g

- b
Government Introduces Revised Tariff on Excise Duties

(DAILY TIMES, 12 Nov 86) 37

Export Promotion Council Slated for Reorganization

(DAILY TIMES, 10 Nov 86) ..., .....* 38

Government Approves Funds To Fight Unemployment

(DAILY TIMES, 20 Nov 86) 39

Information Minister on Overseas Centers Closure

(DAILY TIMES, 14 Nov 86) 40

Petroleum Minister Hints at Higher Domestic Oil Prices

(Bashir Umar; THE TRIUMPH, 19 Nov 86)... • • 41

Abacha on Army Fuel Consumption Rate, Supplies

(DAILY TIMES, 2 Dec 86) 42

Internal Affairs Ministry Functioning at Abuja

(DAILY STAR, 11 Dec 86) . 43

NLC's Chiroma on Need To Reform SFEM Funding

(Funmi Jolaoso; DAILY TIMES, 8 Dec 86)... ... 44

Spare Part Production at Ajaokuta Steel Mill

(Raheem Mohammed; DAILY TIMES, 20 Nov 86)... . 46

College Graduate Unemployment on Increase

(Dapo Ajibola; BUSINESS TIMES, 17 Nov 86) 47

ABU Vice Chancellor on Measures To Prevent Campus Discord

(Adamu Mohammed Interview; THE AFRICAN GUARDIAN,

27 Nov 86) •• , 48

Briefs

Babangida Encourages Foreign Investments 50

Unemployment Soars 50

Road to Steel Plant in Disrepair 50

Aid to Equatorial Guinea 51

Technology Institute for Ajaokuta 51

Inspector General Assures Envoys 51

Information Minister on Bulgarian Ties 52

New Guidelines To Boost Export 52

Journalists in Moscow 52

Soviet Cultural Agreement 52

SIERRA LEONE

Energy, Fuel Shortages Remain Key Problems

(Samadu Sesay, Feyi Ogunade; AFRICAN CONCORD, 20 Nov 86).. 53

c *--
UGANDA

Briefs

300 Kenyans Expelled 55

ZIMBABWE

Displaced Mozambicans Succeed in Farming

(Elliot Chiriseri; THE SUNDAY MAIL, 28 Dec 86) 56

Fertilizer Export Order for Zambia Under Way

(THE HERALD, 29 Dec 86) 57

Businessmen Find Zaire Difficult Market

(THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE, 12 Dec 86) 58

Matabeleland North Described as ZANU-PF's 'Problem Child'

(M0T0, No 50).... 59

Telecommunications Links for Eastern Rail System

(THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE, 12 Dec 86) 61

Briefs

Defense Workers Give to Corridor Fund 62

Cooperation Agreement With Gabon 62

Pakistani Scholarships 62

SOUTH AFRICA

AFRIKANER/GOVERNMENT

Justice Minister Gives Governemnt Views on Detainees, Mandela

(Kobie Coetsee Interview; LEADERSHIP, No 6, 1986) 64

BLACKS

Black Enrollment in Private Schools Increasing

(Sue Fox Menof, Samkelo Kumalo; SUNDAY TIMES, 14 Dec 86).. 69

University Hosts Conference on Educational Challenges

(Dan Dhlamini; CITY PRESS, 14 Dec 86) 71

Blacks Doubt Government Sincerity 71

Resolutions of Meeting 73

Case Study of Grassroots Youth Conflict in Soweto's Dlamini 1

(THE WEEKLY MAIL, 12-18 Dec 86) 75

d -
SOCIOPOLITICAL/OTHER

Business Community's Inconsistency in National Politics Noted

(Bob Tucker; LEADERSHIP, No 6, 1986)

ECONOMIC

Far East 'Undercover Capital' Finances Manufacturing Complex ^

(THE STAR, 12 Dec 86). '

Israeli Loophole in Sanctions Net Denied

(Chris Moerdyk; THE STAR, 15 Dec 86)

Western Aid Program Proposed for Rapid End of Apartheid

(David Welsh; LEADERSHIP, No 6, 1986)

Economist Expects Slow, Patchy Recovery in 1987

(Attie de Vries; LEADERSHIP, 1987)

Government Believes Worst Unemployment Problem Over

Government^ ^^^ M±ck Collins; BUSINESS DAY, 15 Dec 86).. 92

Survey Considers State of Economy Following Sanctions ^

(FINANCIAL MAIL, 12 Dec 86)

Sanlam Questions 'Sustainability' of Economic Upturn ^

(SAPA, 15 Dec 86) . • • • * *'

Heavy Rains Raise Hope of Record 1987 Maize Crop

(Mick Collins; BUSINESS DAY, 17 Dec 86)

New Platinum Mine Will be Country's Third Largest

(Adam Payne: BUSINESS DAY, 15 Dec 86)

Business Leader Discusses Political Philosophy

(Jan van der Horst Interview; LEADERSHIP, No 6, 1986) 102

Briefs iQS

Italy Donates to Operation Hunger iQg

Standard Bank Assets Reduction 10g

New Businesses on Increase

INDUSTRIAL/S&T

(David"Furlo"nger; BUSINESS~DAY, 19 Nov 86)

Industrial Research Reflects Changing Rolej>f Business ^

Chemical Industry Survey no

(BUSINESS DAY, 31 Oct 86)

110 Chemical Production Up -

Chemplast Import-Substitution Program

- e -
Cementation Chemicals' Sales Up HI

Optimistic Outlook For Chemical Industry H2

Hoechst Contributions Noted 113

Sasol Export Drive Viewed 113

Demand For Sulphuric Acid Rising 114

Engineers' Shortage Seen as Threat 114

Mossel Bay Project Progresses

(David Southey; SUNDAY TIMES, 2 Nov 86) H6

Armored Security Vehicle Described

(THE CITIZEN, 10 Nov 86) , n7

Domestically Built Reflux Valve Described

(THE CITIZEN, 13 Oct 86) 118

Briefs

New Armored Vehicles H9

Plan To Harness Technology Unveiled 119

/12223

- f r-
IMPLEMENTATION OF LUXEMBOURG RESOLUTION DISCUSSED

Lagos BUSINESS TIMES in English 1 Dec 86 p 5

[Text]

INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS

THE International

TransportWorkers

Federation (ITWF)

and the government of

Sierra Leone are to

hold a joint seminar in

Ereetown for road

transport workers in

Africa from December

1 to December 14,

1986.

Participants will be

drawn from road

transport trade unions in

Africa. Announcing this

in Lagos last week, the

Africa Regional'

Representative of the

ITWF. Mr. Ben Roxy

Udogwu, said the seminar

would discuss the role of

road transport workers in

Africa in die enforcement

of sanctions against the

racist regime in South

Africa.

Mr. Udbgwu had made

a brief stop-over in Lagos;

on his way to Accra,

Ghana, in continuation of

his tour of African

countries to brief African

workers on the strategic

programme of the ITWF*

to implement antiapartheid resolutions

adopted at_ the 35th

congress of the ITWF

held in Luxemburg in

August, this year.

At the Luxemburg

congress, Mr.' Udogwu

with the backing of other

delegates from Africa,

secured the support of the

ITWF in taking a decision

to enforce sanctions

against South Africa

including an embargo on

the shipment of oil and

arms to the racists.

The Luxemburg resolution also decided to set up

anti-apartheid fund to

provide financial and

material assistance to

victims of apartheid in

South Africa especially

the trade union leaders

and their members —

many times persecuted

and detained.

On his return to

Nairobi, Kenya, where he

is based, Mr.' Udogwu

began a tour of African

countries to acquaint

African transportworkers

on the Luxemburg

resolution and discuss the

role they would be

expected to play in the

enforcement of antiapartheid sanctions.

Mr. Udogwu said the

decision to hold the road

transport workers

seminar in Freetown

Sierra Leone, was based

on the fact that the

government of that

country had taken the

initiative to host the

senvnar as the contributions' of Sierra Leone to

the struggle against

apartheid.

A veteran Nigerian

labour leader with a vast

experience in the intricacies of international trade

union movement, . Mr.

Udogwu praised the

Nigerian Government of

General Ibrahim

Babangida for being in.

the vanguard in the

struggle against

apartheid in South Africa.

Mr. Udogwu said as a

Nigerian, he was always

proud to recall the

courageous role played by

Nigeria in the boycott of

Commonwealth Games in

Edinburgh in protests

against the refusal of

Britain to support

sanctions against South

Africa.

He said to make the

'anti-apartheid stand of

Nigeria more practical

and meaningful, it was

important, for Nigerian,

workers to be involved in

the enforcement of

sanctions.

Mr. Udogwu

emphasised that the

struggle against

apartheid in South Africa
was primarily an African

problem requiring total

dedication and

commitment of all

Africans to secure black

majority rule in South

Africa.

He said it would bea

tragedy if workers in

Europe, Asia, Latin

America and the United

States join the ITWF in

the enforcement of

sanctions against the

racist regime while

African workers, the real

owners of the apartheid

war relaxed- in their

homes. Mr. Udogwu

praised the Government

and labour movement of

Sierra Leone for deciding

to host the seminar for

road transport workers in

Africa.

He expressed the hope

that. Nigeria, ' already

playing an effective role in

the struggle against

apartheid in South Africa,

would continue to play

this leading role for other

African countries to

follow.

In answer toa question,

Mr. Udogwu said he was

prepared to hold

discujsions with the

Nigf.ian committee

against apartheid or any

other agency of Nigerian

Government to brief them

on the programme of the

ITWF to enforce

sanctions against

apartheid South Africa.

Mr. Udogwu however

expected an invitation for

such discussions'to come

from Nigeria to avoid an

impression being created

that the ITWF was

forcing itself on any

country.

He said since the ITWF

and Nigeria shared the

same anti-apartheid

platform and were firm

believers in democracy

and fundamental human

rights, there was no

problem in the . ITWF

working together with the

Nigerian Government and

the Nigerian- labour

movement in the struggle

against apartheid . Mr. Udogwu reiterated

that- the international

transport workers: federation with a membership

of more flian six million

transport Wirkers in

Europe, United- States,

Asia,..Latin America and

Africa had the effective

machinery and capacity to

enforce sanctions Against

South Africa and bring

down apartheid administration.

CSO: 3400/725

/9317
ANGOLA

PORTUGUESE SETTLEMENT IN HUILA DESCRIBED

Lisbon AFRICA HOJE in Portuguese Apr 86 p 9

[Article by Jorge Heitor: "Portuguese in Huila"]

[Text] In spite of the danger of the near-by South African

war, some 3,000 Portuguese have remained in the temperate areas

on the Huila Plateau in southern Angola and are completely integrated into the new Angolan social life.

I went back to the Huila highlands in southern Angola to find the descendants

of the Portuguese who settled there some 90 years ago.

In the highlands 1,000 km south of Luanda, some 3,000 Portuguese are carrying

on a tradition that was not greatly disrupted by the advent of Angolan independence in 1975.

Having an altitude of about 1,900 meters, these highland areas have been compared in general appearance with southern Chile. I concentrated most of my

time at Maximino Borges1Jamba Farming Corporation.

A robust Portuguese 91 years old who has lived here since 1937, Maximino owns

this land near the city of Lubango (formerly Sa da Bandeira) and another much

larger 25,000-hectare spread in Chimbolela, 108 km southeast of the city.

Just as all rules have exceptions and truth is a complex matter, life m Lubango is quite peaceful in spite of the war situation being experienced in many

other parts of Angola, including southern areas of Huila Province itself.

At the Borges family's Jamba ("Jamba" means "elephant"), one of the many farms

in southern Angola of the same name, there are lofty eucalyptus trees, pigs

and calves, fields of sweet potatoes and strawberries, and orchards of pear,

apple, and quince trees.

Adapting to the new times, the Borgeses (four generations now live on the property) gave 1,000 hectares to their 200 hands and directly manage the remaining

500 hectares, where they keep 300 head of cattle.

The land is very well managed and the produce is normally sold to state companies. The family has no complaints about their life here.
Jaime Borges, a grandson of the owner of Jamba and my guide during my visit to

the estate, was born in Huambo when it was still known as Nova Lisboa. In his

late teens, he attended an agricultural school in Santarem in Portugal and can

now assure the family's continued presence on this land.

On the property there is a Boer cemetery dating from the early 1900's, a relic

from the past, with common South African names like Botha and Du Plessis on

the grave markers.

As a matter of fact, in the latter half of the last century, the Boers tried to

settle not only Namibia, but also southern Angola. However, when the Portuguese

founded Sa da Bandeira in the early 1900's, the Boers began to withdraw.

Thus it was that Maximino Borges was able to claim the land where he now raises

pigs on cattle dung and has 5,000 head of cattle in Chimbolela.

In addition to the Borgeses, 3,000 more Portuguese live in this temperate area.

They have asked the Lisbon government to open a consulate in Lubango, as was

done in Luanda and Benguela.

8844

CSO: 3442/48
ANGOLA

BRIEFS

MALAWI'S EXPLANATION CALLED 'INSUFFICIENT'—The Angolan government called

Malawi's explanation of last week's incident insufficient, in which Malawi

government officials denied permission for an Angolan aircraft carrying Pedro

Maria Tonha (Pedale), Angolan defense minister, to enter its air space. According to a communique issued by the Angolan embassy in Lusaka, Zambia, the

Malawi government was asked whether special permission was necessary for other

SADCC countries to enter its air space. So far, the only explanation offered

by Malawi was that the Angolan plane was denied permission to enter Malawi air

space because Malawian President for Life Hastings Kamuzu Banda was visiting the

countryside. The Angolan government rejected this explanation and demanded a

clarification on the requirements for entering Malawi's air space, since the

lives of the officials on board the plane were endangered by having to turn

back in mid-flight with insufficient fuel. The incident occurred as the Angolan minister was travelling to Dar-es-Salaam, the capital of Tanzania, where

he was to have met with the Front Line countries' ministers of defense and security. The statement went on to assert that luckily, the plane was able to

turn back with assistance from the Zambian Air Force. [Text] [Maputo NOTICIAS

in Portuguese 29 Nov 86 p 1] 8844

CSO: 3442/48
ETHIOPIA

POWER STRUGGLE WITHIN TOP LEADERSHIP ALLEGED

Paris INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 6 Dec 86 p 5

[Text] Serious incidents involving members of the Ethiopian leadership

broke out at a meeting on November 22 of the top officials in the Dergue

military council and the Ethiopian Workers' Party, according to as yet

incomplete reports reaching The Indian Ocean Newsletter. It appears that

the head of state, Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, had a violent confrontation with two other influential figures, Alemu Abebe and Legesse Asfaw,

who are both considered to be close to the Soviet Union. There are

different rumours as to what has become of them: the former is said to have

been wounded during the dispute, while the latter took refuge in the Soviet

embassy, but was later arrested.

None of the state's top leaders, apart from the regime's second-ranking

official, Fikre Selassie Wogderes, appeared in the press or on television

for several days, until Colonel Mengistu welcomed heads of state and

government arriving for the summit of the regional Preferential Trade Area

which opened in Addis Ababa on December 3.

The question of the distribution of responsibilities in the future state

once the constitution which makes Ethiopia a "people's democratic republic"

is implemented, seems to be at the root of the conflict. Several leading

figures have recently wanted to see a reduction in the powers of Colonel

Mengistu while the continuation or limitation of Shoan influence on the

machinery of state also seems to be a subject of an intense power struggle.

The physical elimination a few years ago of such Dergue members as Teferi

Bante and Atnafu Abate indicates that Colonel Mengistu will not tolerate

any questioning of his prerogatives such as, for instance, the attribution

of the post of EWP secretary-general to another member of the party's

politbureau. In our September 27 issue (ION No 249) we reported that two

prominent figures, Alemu Abebe and Shimeles Mengezia, aspired to higher

office.

On November 29 the Dergue (the Provisional Military Administrative Council)

announced the formation of a commission to organise the referendum on the

constitution which was announced last September. No date has yet been

announced for the holding of this poll. For several weeks analysts have

been surprised at the silence surrounding the new basic law and the referendum. Meanwhile a confidential circular of the EWP relating to the criteria
for membership of the nomination committees forest« to «

parliament stipulates that any former or «rren «4« °f a*h°

P

?°!^y

movement will be excluded. The circular was made public by the Tigray

People's Liberation Front.

Finally the recent resignation and defection of Goshu Wolde, the foreign

arrested.

CSO: 3400/724

/9317
ETHIOPIA

RENOVATION OF KEBELE 13 SLUM DESCRIBED

Harare THE HERALD in English 19 Dec 86 p 4

[Text] Addis Ababa—If a slum may be described as an overcrowded neighbourhood where the houses and living conditions are squalid and depressing,

then Kebele 13 qualifies as one or it did until recently.

In 1983 close to 3 000 Ethiopians lived on top of each other in 538 brokendown houses in this five-hectare district of Addis Ababa.

Sewage and sanitation conditions were deplorable, most kitchens in a

dreadful state. More than 1 000 of Kebele 13*s inhabitants were children

under 15. There were almost no creches, kindergartens and primary schools.

There were almost twice as many women as men and a large number of the women

were unwed mothers. No one had any knowledge of family planning.

That was the situation three years ago. It has changed radically. Kebele

13 still has its hovels and unpaved roads, but among them are bright-coloured,

clean, new and renovated houses. There is visible progress and an air of

expectation.

What happened? It began when Redd Barna, the Norwegian Save the Children

Organisation, decided to fund a five-year (mid-1983 to mid-1988) project

of integrated slum upgrading. Kebele 13 is being made livable for, and

largely by, its slum dwellers. Redd Barna agreed to contribute almost

US$2 million and the Addis Ababa Council would help as best it could,

materially and technically.

As for the desperately poor people of Kebele 13, they threw themselves

enthusiastically into the task of "upgrading" their depressed neighbourhood.

"Integrated slum upgrading" is a mouthful that does not just mean knocking

down or repairing insalubrious mud, straw and wood dwellings.

It also involves condemning dangerous latrines and constructing new ones,

placing garbage bins and barrels in strategic spots around the neighbourhood

and educating people to use them, teaching trades and creating co-operatives,

building pre-school centres, and elementary schools, vaccinating pregnant
women against tetanus, immunising children against six childhood diseases,

developing primary health care, organising athletic and cultural activities in the Kebele, and finding jobs for people.

What integrated slum upgrading comes down to is changing people's physical

environment and their way of life and giving them hope.

The Kebele 13 slum committee, of which representatives of Redd Barna,

Unicef and the Addis Ababa City Council were members, first did an

inventory of housing, sewage and sanitation.

Of the 538 houses in Kebele 13, 124 were condemned outright, 195 required

major repairs, 177 minor repairs, and only 42 were judged acceptable.

But houses cannot be demolished until their tenants have somewhere decent

to go. Last year, 54 two-storey houses were constructed to lodge 322

people, while 22 slum dwellings underwent major repairs to make them

livable for 117 other Kebele residents. Virtually all of the minor repairs

were completed in 1984, enabling 782 persons to live more decently and

comfortably, albeit quite simply.

So, in the past two years almost half of Kebele 13—1 250 persons—were

better housed. This year another 50 two-storey houses are planned, along

with major repairs to another 60. This will take care of 560 residents

leaving about 1 000 still living in awful conditions. By the end of next

year, half of this remaining thousand will be living in new or repaired

housing.

Slower progress has been made in improving sanitation and kitchen

facilities.

The most striking advances in 1985 were in the medical care of children.

A first aid post was converted into a primary health care centre where

almost every child under two was immunised against measles, diphtheria,

whooping cough, tetanus, polio and tuberculosis. Those who were not will

be this year. Every girl and boy under 14 got a medical check-up.

All pregnant mothers were vaccinated against tetanus. Some 240 mothers

completed a course on family planning, and efforts will be made this year

to reach all other mothers and young girls as well as men. Forty mothers

finished a nutrition class.

Another success in 1985 was the construction of a pre-school centre for

200 infants. With Unicef funding, four teachers were trained. Unicef

has also helped a workshop where 11 young women have learned to produce

play and educational materials.

"The constantly growing numbers of pre-school children in Addis Ababa day

care centres makes it important to obtain large quantities of these

materials," point out Ms R. Padmini, Unicef representative in Ethiopia.
The Kebele 13 Committee last year opened, on a co-operative basis, a

butcher shop, a grain mill, a restaurant, and an "injira" (pancake)

electric bakery where women can make their own injira inexpensively and

hygienically.

The committee trained 40 mothers in domestic activities (food preparation,

nutritious cooking, handling of household electrical appliances, etc),

sewing clothes and knitting sweaters. These training activities will be

expanded this year to include classes, essentially for youth, in electricity,

masonry, plumbing and driving. Mothers who learn to sew and knit will be

organised in a co-operative. So will needy women who grow vegetables and

raise sheep.

Kebele 13 is a beehive of activity with men and women of all ages clearing

building sites, fixing fences, emptying latrines, making school benches,

in short, demolishing and re-building. The people of Kebele 13 are not

sitting around waiting to have their lot improved by donor organisations.

They have taken their fate into their own hands.—Ziana-Pana.

CSO: 3400/725

/9317

10
IVORY COAST

BRIEFS

BARCLAYS BANK AGREEMENT SIGNED—Great Britain's Barclays Bank has just

granted a line of credit for about 5.557 billion CFA francs to Ivory Coast

guaranteed by the ECVD. The loan agreement was signed late this morning,

Tuesday, 30 December, at the Ministry of Economy and Finance by Leon Naka,

the director general of the Autonomous Sinking Fund, and Mr Lanson, the

director general of Barclays Bank in Ivory Coast, in the presence of

Finance Minister Abdoulaye Kone, and Peter Shedler, first secretary and

consul of the British Embassy, representing the British ambassador to

Ivory Coast. [Excerpt] [Abidjan Domestic Service in French 1930 GMT

30 Dec 86] /9604

CSO: 3400/710

11
LIBERIA

BRIEFS

OFFICIALS PROBED FOR ELECTION FRAUD—Monrovia, 29 Dec (AFP)—The Liberian

authorities are investigating allegations of vote fraud during the

20 December by-elections against a total of six officials, three of them

members of parliament, the Elections Commission said here on Monday

[29 December]. Commission Chairman Isaac Randolph identified the six as

Senator Lawson Draper, Representatives Peter Nyenswah and William Jabbah,

and three other officials, all of whom come from Sinoe County in the

east of the country. Mr Randolph said the officials were accused of

voting several times without registration cards, and harassing supporters

of independent candidates during the polls. The report brought to 10 the

number of persons accused of election fraud since the polls for seven

legislative seats and 38 mayoral posts 9 days ago. Four opposition parties

boycotted the elections, charging that they could not be held fairly.

Representatives of President Samuel Doe's ruling National Democratic Party

of Liberia and a handful of independent candidates were the only ones who

took part in the elections. [Text] [Paris AFP in English 1433 GMT

29 Dec 86] /9604

CSO: 3400/710

12
MOZAMBIQUE

SOBER POLITICAL STYLE OF PRESIDENT CHISSANO ANALYZED

Effect on Political Scene

Lisbon DIARIO DE NOTICIAS In Portuguese 7 Dec 86 p 13

[Article by Augusto de Carvalho]

[Text] The outlines of a new style in the handling of political affairs are

beginning to come clear in Mozambique. It is the Chissano style, sober in

words and restrained as to the emotions, which nonetheless exist.

A Western ambassador told the NP agency that the long service of the current

president of the People's Republic of Mozambique at the head of the Ministry

of Foreign Affairs, where he was in contact with the widest varxety of

diplomatic styles, has contributed to the flexibility and subtlety which are

the distinguishing characteristics of his personality.

Joaquim Chissano, unlike Samora Machel, is not a performer. He visibly

reigns in his emotions, and he gives the appearance of being a cerebral man

whose discourse is woven from the threads of logic.

However,- we saw him dissolved in tears at the funeral eeremonies for Samora

Machel and grieving as he accompanied the wives of Aquino de Braganca,

Alcantara Santos and the other comrades on the day the bodies of their

husbands were laid to rest.

He speaks softly, does not present a striking appearance, and seems to be

trying to pass unnoticed, but his intimates say that he is a determined man

and attentive to details.

In political speeches he uses a formula which says more than it appears to.

At his first press conference, held in Maputo on Thursday, he began by

praising domestic and foreign journalists, who, he said, were responsible for

"the great interest the cause of Mozambique has awakened in the world today.

He responded in Portuguese and English, depending on the language in which the

questions were asked.

13
To date he has given an impression of a broadly open policy, seeking

cooperation with other countries, without regard to their regimes, with

concern solely for what contributes most to the interests of Mozambique.

At the end of the press conference, the general consensus among the

approximately 70 journalists present, the majority of them foreigners, was

that Chissano had said nothing new.

Later, it was the unanimous opinion of a group of these newsmen that the

conference had after all provided indications concerning the future, and had

above all established a new style of pursuing politics.

Chissano said that in the near future answers to many questions will be

needed, "because the process is under way," and he warned the people of

Mozambique that they must expect a period of harsh sacrifice.

Varied Cooperation

In such delicate areas as the military sector, Chissano made himself clear,

stating that there is no space reserved for any given country in the realm of

cooperation.

Although the Soviet presence is still important in this sector, Joaquim

Chissano made it clear that military cooperation is available to all

countries.

He indicated that it is not the desires of the two great superpowers which

define the interests of Mozambique.

On the subject of the RENAMO, he denied that negotiation is possible.

"I do not know what the RENAMO is. I do know what terrorism is." He admitted

that "terrorism" is active in every country, but does not occupy territory.

"There can be terrorism without occupation," he stated.

Chissano made it clear that in his view, the RENAMO, a term he does not

acknowledge, is state terrorism practiced by the South African regime with two

principle objectives: to perpetuate the apartheid regime, demonstrating that

antiracial societies such as that in Mozambique are impossible, and on the

other hand, ensuring that the countries in the southern part of Africa are

forced to channel their goods through South African ports, in which connection

it is necessary to render the ports of Mozambique inoperative.

Relations with Malawi

On the subject of Malawi, with which Mozambican relations became very tense in

the final weeks of President Samora Machel's life, Chissano tried to lower the

level of emotion. "It is not of interest to us to know whether Malawi aids

the armed bandits or not. What is of interest to us is whether Malawi is

prepared to prevent terrorists from using its territory to attack Mozambique."

Joaquim Chissano said that only thus can Malawi contribute to the development

14
of the countries in the region, since Mozambique, with its ports, railroads

and highways (rendered inoperative by the RENAMO), is vital to the progress of

the peoples in the interior, beginning with Malawi itself.

There were no threats of war, as had been habitual.

On the subject of the Nkomati Accord, he was categorical. "If we were to end

the Nkomati Accord today, we would have no way of forcing South Africa to

adhere to it, because the Accord would simply not exist.

He said that Mozambique "supports the struggle of ^.^^^^ ^

by the ANC and the other democratic organizations, but that it will not as

dictated by the Nkomati Accord, serve as a base for the launching of attacks

against the Republic of South Africa.

"We can only offer South Africa peace and good neighborly relations. We will

not surrender our sovereignty and independence to it," he said.

Style Described

Lisbon DIARIO DE NOTICIAS in Portuguese 2 Dec 86 p 26

[Editorial]

[Text] The new president of the Republic of Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano

revealed undeniable astuteness in an interview (the first since he 1became head

of state) granted to a Harare newspaper. On the one hand, he admitted that

relations between Mozambique and Zimbabwe have become closer, but he did not

stop there. He put forth the possibility that these links may develop into a

confederation. L the other hand, -he announced - ^^^ o.ampaign^gainst

the rebels, an operation which is essential within the framework of the

effortswhich, he gave assurance, will be pursued with a view to the economic

rehabilitation of the country.

Faced with a South Africa which is persisting in a rigid and backward policy

Samora Machel's successor is turning openly to a neighbor which « deeply

sensitive to Maputo's difficulties, with a view to a broad relationship

involving not only the economic cooperation which is so important, but also

relations (equally important) in the realms of culture educationand

political identification. He provided an overall view of what, in or er

serve Mozambique's interests, it is important to do in the short run amwhat

in terms of foreign image will work toward greater solidity for the country m

its direct attack on the serious problems facing it.

In addition to this, Chissano is talking with another neighbor, Malawi whose

policy is nothing like that of Maputo, but which now gives assurance that it

is not Prepared to support any group devoted to destabilizing the Mozambican

nation. *£"nvoy repreLnting'pfesident Banda formally denied any i-olvemen

on the part of his country in the "South African «A «

1

- Ivthis

connection, the Mozambican president, who did not f«" "

n

°*e. ^t^e

problems between the two countries are ancient ones, confirmed again that he

wants To continue the efforts with a view to eliminating "everything which

15
could divide us." But for this to be achieved, he warned, Malawi will have to

go beyond mere statements that it does not support the RENAMO, and must

express in deeds its real will to contribute to the reestablishment of safe

conditions in the region. Finally, Chissano promised continuing fidelity to

the Nkomati Accord, depending on continued support of it by the South African

authorities.

Thus the new president seems to be relying on moderation and pragmatism,

without excluding firmness, that is to say perpetuation of the "spirit of

Machel." But because he does not have his predecessor's charisma, he shows a

tendency (toward which he may also be pushed by the balance of forces within

the FRELIMO) to push teamwork and organizational tasks farther. Rebuilding

with a greater concern for technical exigency appears to be his main venture,

to which he will certainly add still more active and refined diplomacy, if

possible, among other things because in recent years he has revealed himself

to be an extremely skillful diplomat with undeniable International prestige.

After setting forth a self-portrait as a "gentle lamb," with his fine sense of

humor, the president has done everything to date to make it very clear that he

wants to pursue a policy of continuity when it comes to political practice,

based however, beginning now, on planning which will perhaps be more careful

and all-encompassing. Much of what was intuitive in Machel will likely be, in

the future, the result of an institutionalized process of careful situation

analysis. This is what can be inferred from the statements of the president,

who places the economy and culture on the same level (and this is a step

forward), while he discusses relations among neighboring countries in calm,

concise and accurate language in the manner of a mathematical equation.

Obviously this framework does not in itself guarantee that the internal and

external difficulties can be overcome, far from it. These are facts which are

seemingly very positive, and which the political developments in that zone of

Southern Africa may or may not confirm.

As to the strengthening of the links with Zimbabwe and future progress in the

relations with Malawi, these are aspects which are without a doubt Important

and capable of strengthening the struggle against South African "aggression."

But they are obviously insufficient to slow the threat significantly. Much

broader areas are involved.

5157

CSO:3442/49

16
MOZAMBIQUE

OUTSIDE FORCES SEEN AS RUINING NATION'S CHANCES OF RECOVERY

Cape Town LEADERSHIP in English Vol 5, 1986 No 6 pp 38-42

[Article by Dr Annette Seegers, lecturer in Department of Political

Studies, University of Cape Town]

[Text]

The death in an aircraft accident in South Africa of

President Samora Machel has thrust Mozambique to

the forefront of Southern African politics. As the impassioned charges and countercharges suggest, the

issue is not simply about what or who causes aircraft

disasters, but more fundamentally concerns the causes

of the appalling conditions prevailing within Mozambique, and the effects these have on neighbouring states.

In his epic, Os Lusiades, the Portuguese poet, Luis

de Camoens, had written of a place the Portuguese

seized as a stamping ground, where it was good a "litde

here to bide, and take the sweet refreshment of the

land". But in 1986, there seems to be little pleasantness attached to experiences in Mozambique.

President Chissano inherits a country not short on

evidence of disaster: economically, Mozambique remains in the grip of a severe drought, the effects of

which have been compounded by a cyclone, banditry,

Frelimo's agricultural policies, the destruction of infrastructure and accompanying guerrilla war. Approximately 90% ofMozambique's 13,1m people live in the

countryside and here death stalks the land in the form

offamine and attacks by bandits and guerrillas. Life in

the cities offers only partial escape as here, too, there

are chronic shortages ofbasic foodstuffs. And the guerrillas seem to be everywhere, striking at towns in the

remote areas of the interior as easily as in major cities

like Beira and Maputo.

Whether President Chissano can solve the problems

posed by the acute starvation of more than a quarter of

the Mozambican population, and the political opposition of the reportedly more than 10,000 Mozambique

National Resistance (MNR) guerrillas and their allies,

remains to be seen, but his failure or success is not his

or Frelimo's alone. Also at stake is the security of

Mozambique's neighbours. The national security of

Zimbabwe, in particular, depends largely on the general stability of Mozambique and especially the stability of the central Mozambican provinces with the corridor that links Zimbabwe with Beira.

Thus, Mozambique directly, and Zimbabwe (and

other states, like Zambia and Malawi) indirectly, are

South Africa's hostages, and it is here that the challenge forChissano and also South Africa lies. The challenge is about what constitutes good neighbourliness.

Some South Africans wince under the indictment of

their government for its role in the deterioration of

Mozambique. Those who spent some time there, remember the romanticism of the place, the exotic interior, the elaborate embracing of death in cemetries

and the long empty distances between towns. For

others, who reject colonial nostalgia, Mozambique's

recent political history heartened the political soul: we

heard the call to resistance, witnessed the dedication

from afar and finally hoped that liberation was at hand.

We are all like Camoens, seeing the reflection of our

political selves in Mozambique, using the territory and

its people for our own purposes, while the real Mozambique eludes us.

But perhaps this is where an understanding of

Mozambique must start: with the recognition that

Mozambique has always been exposed to - indeed

dominated by - outside forces. It is tempting to see

Portuguese rule as the root cause ofthis vulnerability,

but Mozambique's weakness is based on its geographical position and natural resources.

17
Long before the arrival ofthe Portuguese, Arab merchants since the 8th century had established themselves in the area, locking Mozambique into a pattern

of unequal exchange with outsiders. The Arab merchants took the most valuable resources (gold, ivory

and slaves), leaving nothing that could replace the departing wealth. When the Portuguese arrived in the

15th century, they did not intend effective occupation

but simply altered the direction of trade to Portugal's

benefit.

Soon, however, the gold and ivory supplies were depleted and humans became Mozambique's most

prized asset. The slave trade flourished and, although

the British forced an official ban on the trade in the

early 19th century, the practice continued long afterwards. What happened during the declining years of

the slave trade underlined another facet of Mozambique's vulnerability. Portugal's golden age was gone.

Challenged by other maritime powers, the Portuguese

were defeated and, after the Treaty ofMethuen in

1703, Britain became Portugal's protector or, some

would say, her colonizer.

Caught in this web of colonial links, Mozambique

became a backwater. Being ruled by the Portuguese in

fact consisted of the Portuguese projecting their

sovereignty from coastal forts towards the interior. Portugal was indifferent to Mozambique's fate, an indifference punctuated by leasing land to individuals such

as theprazeros, who were to create a fascinating tale of

Europeans becoming Africanised. Portugal was lucky

not to lose Mozambique during the scramble for Africa,

subsequently imitating its protector Britain's practice

ofleasing land to private companies, combined with pacification campaigns aimed more at negating overt challenges to their rule rather than effective occupation,

By the start ofthe 20th century, Portugal was an odd

colonial power. Whereas colonialism is usually associated

with the consequences ofeconomic growth, industrialisation and broadening political horizons, Portugal was

agricultural, poor and embroiled in domestic politics.

When Antonio Salazar became prime minister, however,

Portugal embarked on a search for glory and wealth. The

real start of Portuguese colonialism came in 1930; indeed the colonies were the key mechanisms whereby

the "new Portuguese state" {Rstado Novo) was to develop and recapture past glory. This would require more

efficient administration and exploitation.

Yet, if the oft-repeated phrase "Without Africa, Portugal is nothing" was correct, how was Mozambique to

contribute? The years ofneglect had revealed no valuable resources other than human traffic and outsiders'

use of the territory as a transit area. But for the Portuguese, humans meant labour in service of Portugal's

needs, including forced agricultural production (producing, for example, the cotton necessary for Portugal's fledgling textile industry), labour in service of the

State (creating the rail, road and port facilities that could

enhance Mozambique's value

as a transit area), and selling

labour to outsiders (the South

Africans in the south and the

Rhodesians in the centre and

north of Mozambique).

Any profits were used to

metropolitan benefit, ensuring

that Mozambique acquired,

except for some minor secondary industries, nothing to augment its natural resources.

Profits wentto Portugal either

directly through customs duties

or the gold received from

Mozambicans' labour on South

African mines or indirectly

through, for example, the reduction of labour costs or the

artificially high level of agricultural production. In time, the

role of neighbours was to add

yet another thread to the web

of colonial relations woven

around Mozambique. South

Africa, in particular, established its power in Mozambique, which serviced its neighbour as a labour reserve,

market for manufactured goods, export route, tourist

haven and, later, as energy-supplier.

To understand the effects of Portuguese colonialism,

one need not dwell over obscure reports, for the very

nature ofMozambican society reflects it. Because ofits

elongated shape and early population movements, regional differentiation had already occurred in Mozambique, but Portuguese rule accentuated differences

between, chiefly, the north, centre and south. The

population movement of the south (south of the Zambesi but more particularly south ofthe Save river) was,

and today largely remains, to the Lowveld and

Witwatcrsrand, that or northerners (Cabo Delgado and

Niassa) northward, and that of die centre and northwest

towards the west.

The railroads the Portuguese constructed, and

which today remain, do not link the north with the

south. The consequences of migration compounded

regional differentiation, as southerners' exposure to

urban life on the Witwatersrand resulted in the

18
stereo-typing of them as "aggressive" and "domineering". Southerners, in turn, stereotyped northerners as

"backward" and "lazy".

In addition, Portuguese rule cultivated social distinctions. The cultural policies of the Kstado Novo were

animated by the principles of brotherhood, Catholicism,

the dignity oflabour, and homeliness, which were superior to African values. Mozambicans could in theory,

through education, be assimilated into Portuguese culture; but in practice the Portuguese never resolved the

contradictions of their claims to both cultural superiority and racial tolerance.

Whether this failure is rooted in the cultural narcissism of the RstadoNovo or mere racism, is unclear, but

the scarcity of educational opportunities in Mozambique made assimiJado-status

hard to attain: in 1961, less than

1% ofMozambicans were assimilated. Co-existing with regional differences, therefore,

were class-type distinctions:

the majority of the population,

illiterate, unassimilated, were

engaged in subsistence agriculture in different kinds of rural

areas, while the towns were

occupied by assimilados, mestizos (persons of mixed race),

Portuguese and the unassimilated.

The contradictions of Portuguese cultural policies were

mirrored in administrative practices, wherein Portugal simultaneously denied the political

legitimacy oftraditional authority yet entrenched it to suit

their needs. Political decisions

naturally originated in the

metropole, with local bureaucrats ensuring their execution by, for example, fixing

production quotas and enforcing labour regulations.

Local bureaucracy consisted of Portuguese career

officers, military men, a few Mozambicans and, at the

lowest level, traditional chiefs. Although transformed

by their participation in the colonial bureaucracy as informers, tax collectors or recruiters of labour, traditional authority was uninterrupted by Portuguese colonialism. Authentic traditional rule was lost, but for

most of the population foreign mle wore a half-familiar

face with conflicts here often being covert or passive.

The major thrust of Portuguese brutality lay elsewhere,

especially where nationalist noises were heard.

The first president of Frclimo, Eduardo Mondlane,

was later to claim that Mozambican nationalism started

^the Twenties and Thirties. This c aim might well

be generous. Certainly, Portuguese rule was resented

but the Portuguese suppression of resistance was sw.f

and, combined with the regional political layout of

Mozambique, made any collective, overt nationalist

activity virtually impossible.

The resistance that preceded the creation of Frelimo

in 1962, indeed reflected the demographic and political

realities of Mozambique's incorporation in the Kstado

Novo. Some of the resistance was deliberately disguised

and only occassionally complemented by open striketype activity in towns. Already, what could loosely be

called anti-colonialism occurred outside Mozambique

among exiles and migrants in neighbouring territones.

Eventually these organisations and theirleaders gravitated to Tanzania where, in 1962, they amalgamated to

form Frelimo.

Although the first Mozambican nationalist organisation with an intended nationwide constituency, Frelimo during the Sixties seemed unable to either provide a political home to all nationalists or to maintain

internal unity. Within Frelimo, the battles were about

many things, but gradually a pattern emerged wherein

a group ofassimilados, mestizos and southerners opposed a

nothern group who claimed to have close connections

with the Makonde ofCabo Delgado.

This was not the seeping upwards oftribal animosities;

it was primarily battles between leaders who, in order

to boost themselves, claimed tribal support. Portuguese

colonialism had created a tiny elite, only some ofwhom

participated in the nationalist struggle. Exile entailed

hardship, but it also offered fantastic new rewards

- though not for all leaders. Enemies were easy to

make and hard to forgive.

When Samora Machel eventually became president

after the death of Mondlane in 1969, however, FreHmo's leaders settled down to a more consensual style

of decision-making. But beyond Frelimo there were

many leaders who despised the organisation. Some of

these people never joined Frelimo, others left it or

were expelled and, though they could never offer a

viable alternative to Frelimo, they trekked around,

searching for political patrons.

For most ofthe Sixties, too, Frelimo's effectiveness

was based more on the legitimacy accorded to it by

international organisations than on guerrilla warfare. The

rhetoric of the struggle abounded with Maoist notions

such as the sinking of political roots in communities

before guerrilla actions commenced and "outadministering" the enemy in liberated areas, but Frelimo initially spent little time in politicising the population.

19
Frelimo nevertheless was inventive - today they

take great pride in this - and, towards the end of the

Sixties, increasingly emphasised politicisation, managing between 1971 and 1974 to extend their operations

from Cabo Delgado and Niassa to Tete and occasionally even further south.

But politicisation entailed different, even contradictory, things. In some areas Frelimo managed to sink its

roots in the rural population, but in other areas they

collaborated with traditional authorities who, after all,

were the real powerholders of the countryside. Rural

dissatisfaction in any case was increasing as Portuguese

counter insurgency failed, particularly the military

sweeps and the removal of the population to strategic

hamlets, the latter initially popularised by the British

in Malaya, but whose use elsewhere has backfired.

For the moment, however, the point was to remove

the Portuguese through attrition and how this was done,

was measured by effect, not by whether Frelimo had

translated political legitimacy into an enduring support

base or whether that support base contained contradictory forces.

But when the Portuguese left it created additional

problems. In 1974 Frelimo's operations had not extended south of the Zambesi river, leaving the south

wholly and the centre relatively untouched by Frelimo's activities. More ominously, Portugal's initial postcoup promise ofelections saw the return to Mozambique

of Frelimo's opponents. Frelimo legitimacy was uncontested, however, and the Portuguese handed over power

to it, and then left-lock, stock and barrel.

What Frelimo wanted to do now was consistent with

its ideological self-understanding. This understanding

had changed since the early Sixties, and viewed the

struggle as a three-step progression from National Liberation (or anti-colonialism) to National Democratic

Struggle (starting from the politicisation in the late Sixties) and, finally, to People's Democratic Smigglc (the

use of State-power after 1975 to build socialism).

Ideological raclicalisation had not been forced upon

Frelimo; it was a consequence ofseveral experiences

after 1962 and the understanding of these experiences

was that liberation meant more, much more, than the

expulsion of Portugal. Frelimo's goals and organisational structure would change with each step ofthe liberation process and, as Frelimo had been supported, so

it would support liberation struggles in Southern Africa. So State-power was to be used to change Mozambique for the better, but what was "the State" the Portuguese left behind?

The most obvious remnants ofPortuguese rule were

the 30 000 Mozambicans who fought in the Portuguese

army, and traditional authorities. Less obvious was a

huge foreign debt. There also was no reservoir ofliterate Mozambicans who could fill empty government

offices and Frelimo's resources, too, were limited. Of

the estimated 10 000 guerrillas, most were illiterate and

unskilled; as a whole, the guerrilla-army was an undisciplined force prone to "reactionary" actions such as

drunkenness and theft.

To make matters worse, a section of this army attempted a coup in December 1975. For Frelimo, the

political priority was unambiguous: turn Frelimo into a

cohesive unit and link that unit with the population.

This was done in democratic-socialist (or soviet-) style,

with Frelimo dividing into interlocking anny- and partycomponents and the party-component consisting

of hierarchically-linked cells.

The party was a vanguard (or elitist) organisation,

supported by mass-organisations of, for example, women

and youth and specially-created party organisations such

as the "dynamising" groups. Traditional authorities, the

mainstay of Portuguese rule as much as the struggle

against it, were sidelined - unless of course they chose

to join Frelimo as humble party-members. Officially,

Frelimo was a "peasant-worker" alliance and more State

money was spent on urban workers than their numbers

justified; when the money did go to the countryside, it

was almost wholly absorbed by State farms, not subsistence farmers.

Overall the picture, however, was not that bleak. Although indebted to communist powers for support

during the struggle, the Machel regime's attitude towards, especially, the Soviet Union was cautious; at a

time when the Soviet Union usually gives military aid

and not economic advice, the Mozambicans ironically

imitated Soviet economic and political forms. Special

wrath was reserved for the Americans, including

charges of spying, but as Frelimo's ideological tone

later softened and economic difficulties necessitated

the rescheduling offoreign debt through the IMF, the

Americans were welcomed back.

For some time, the Mozambican economy provided

cause for both hope and despair. Between 1974 and

1976, capital and skilled labour had virtually disappeared but afterwards, particularly between 1977 and

1981, production figures seemed to suggestthat Mozambique was not heading for economic disaster- provided

world prices were favourable, climatic conditions did

not threaten the fragile, non-technological agricultural

production and Mozambique could manage its relations

with its neighbours so as not to fatally damage sources

of State revenue. All these hopes were dashed as a world

recession set in, a cyclone, and then prolonged drought,

wreaked havoc in rural areas and Mozambique and its

neighbours made war on each other.

20
Mozambique's relations with its neighbours exhibits

a ruinous cost-benefit ratio. At first South Africa

remained in the background with a "business as usual"

approach, while support for Zimbabwean liberation organisations occupied centrestage. The Rhodesians' response nevertheless was unexpectedly tough, destroying infrastructure and, worse, led to the organisation of

political resistance against the Machel regime in the

form ofthe MNR.

After 1980, South Africa moved to centrestage with

its patronage of the MNR, as well as the general destabilisation of Mozambique. Although the political

logic remains as is - should Mozambique support

South Africa's banned African National Congress

(ANC), then she will suffer the costs thereof- South

Africa is a more formidable opponent than the Smith

regime. Not only can South Africa manipulate the revenue of Mozambique through, for example, labour

recruitment, but South Africa, since the mid-Seventies, has had a regional policy based on the notion that

South Africa's defence requires weak, non-Marxist

neighbours. Thus, South Africa's defence requires that

Mozambique, and particularly its experiment with socalism, fail.

South Africa's actions in Mozambique have made a

hefty contribution to the makings ofdisaster. The support of the MNR continues despite the Nkomati Accord signed by Pretoria and Maputo, though the public

justification of it now stresses that it is humanitarian,

not designed to subvert (thus keeping to the letter of

the Accord), and aimed at creating a coalition government. As the captured Gorongosa diaries revealed,

South Africa also helps the MNR to recruit non-South

African support, and encourages the MNR to damage

Mozambique's infrastructure. It is this combination of

support for the MNR with damage to infrastructure

that is so deadly: if Mozambique were a relatively integrated, self-sufficient country, support for dissidents

would have serious, though not necessarily calamitous,

consequences.

But Mozambique is not, and especially not after 1975,

that kind ofsociety. The already fragile economic and

political coherence has been shaken, and in this environment it is not only the MNR that flourishes but also

banditry, corruption, hunger and lawlessness by officials

and civilians. As the Zimbabweans and others who have

come to help have discovered, what we identify as

"MNR actions" might well be the general symptoms of

economic and political collapse, ultimately making

Mozambique ungovernable by any regime.

The MNR itself remains a composite force, attracting refugees in seach of the resources and relative

safety available at MNR-headquarters in the Gorongosa mountains, traditional leaders and their rural allies, soldiers who formerly fought for the Portuguese,

deserters and other disaffected former members of

Frelimo, and foreigners. Its ideological positions

suggest a vaguely pro-Western stance, but more importantly, it contains a "respect for tradition" approach

which shows them to be well-aware ofthe importance

of the countryside in Mozambican politics. The major

strength ofthe MNR lies not in its ideology, however,

but in its patronage by outsiders.

To be sure, Frelimo has made major, perhaps even

fatal, mistakes. It unpractically experimented with

socialist economic and political forms, neglected the

countryside and seemed to attach too little importance

to the fact that State-sponsored socialism requires revenue which, for them, requires friendly neighbours.

As they have, since the 8th century, outsiders -in the

region and further afield - hold the key to Mozambique's development. These outsiders cannot solve

Mozambique's problems, but they can ruin any attempt at solving them. Ifthese outsiders cannot restrain themselves and nature does not play along, Mozambique's worst days still lie ahead.

CSO: 3400/727

/9317

21
MOZAMBIQUE

BEIRA PORT STILL FUNCTIONING DESPITE POWER CUTS

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 19 Dec 86 p 5

[Text]

TRAFFIC IS moving at the rate

of one train per day on the Mutare to Beira railway line, rehabilitation ofthe faculties at the

port is proceeding slowly, and

although there are electricity cuts

in Beira these are not affecting the

operation of the port at present,

the Harare office ofKennies Shipping and Airfreight reported this

week. •

; Export, transit items on the Mutare to Beira line ace being maintained at four to six days. Although

sabotage by the MNR put the line

out of commission early in November this year, this was repaired in

a matter of days, and the rehabilitation ofthe line is continuing. Ren-,

nies report that one train per day is

running on the Mutare to Beira line,

"when required".

Rehabilitation work at Beira port

on the building and resurfacing of

the proposed container wharf and

terminal is continuing, but Rennies

state that this terminal will not be

operational for another three to six

months.

"The repaying of wharves 6 and

T is under way, but work appears

to be slow due to periodic shortages

of either cement or water", the

report stated. These wharves are not

in use, and all their facilities —

cranes, warehouses and equipment

— will need to be refurbished before they can be reopened. "This

could be a. fairly long-term

project", the shipping company

observed.

Wharves 3, 4 and 5 are suitable

for use only for smaller coastal and

fishing vessels. Repaying and refurbishing of facilities an these;

wharves will follow the completion;

of work on wharves 6 and 7. ?

Break-bulk handling at Beira port

is adequate at present, although over

halfofthe 3 — 5 tonne cranes are out

of order. Only one 20-tonne crane;

on berth 2 is operational, and if

ships cannot utilise their own gear

for offloading, facilities are limited.

the two 20-tonne forklifts for

dockside container handling were

both out of order for the first three

weeks of November. This has

resulted in a backlog of containers

carrying imports for transportation

by rail to Zimbabwe. However, this

backlog is now being cleared as rhe

forklifts have been repaired. !

Breakbulk movements, both imports and exports, and the handling

of 20-foot containers is not aproblem, "provided the equipment'

is working", Rennies stated. "In

extreme circumstances the container

handling equipment ofthe roro vessels may be used to clear backlogs,

but this is obviously only when

these vessels are in port, which is

approximately every 24 days," the

report concluded. _ '

Beira has been without electricity for almost four months, and supplies are not expected to be restored

for at least another two to three

months. The port is, however, functioning, utilising stand-by diesel

generators.

CSO: 3400/727

/9317

22
MOZAMBIQUE

MNR SAID TO BE WAGING PROPAGANDA WAR THROUGH PUBLICATION

Gweru MOTO in English No 50 [no date given] p 19

[Article by P. Neergaard]

[Text]

AS part of its international propaganda

offensive against the Mozambican government the MNR has embarked on the publication of a propaganda magazine entitled

A Luia Continua (the struggle continues),

a slogan used by FRELIMO, now plagiarised by the MNR. Described as the official

: organ of the RENAMO organisation, this

magazine is published six times per year and

may be found on sale in Lisbon and Johannesburg. .„•''

The editor is Paulo Oliveira, an obsequious functionary of the MNR, whose offices are located in the Portuguese seaside

town of Cascais, some thirty-five kilometres outside Lisbon. Even the most uninformed would have difficulty in believing

that the magazine is typeset and printed by

Graficäs Gorongosa in Mozambique. The

publishers have «ought to give the impression that the Gorongosa bush camp of the

MNR included sophisticated production

facilities for .publication of glossy

magazines!

In the December 1985 edition of this

MNR magazine an extravagant and virtually unbelievable claim <of the successes

against the Mozambique government forces

is made. During the month of September

1985, the MNR contend that they killed 872

enemy soldiers, wounded 1 007, captured

568 deserters, destroyed 348 military

vehicles, wrecked or destroyed 14 tanks,

captured 1 149 rifles and machine guns, 27

mortars and 15 anji-aircraft cannoni

Inaddition, the MNR claim they destroyed 95 tonnes of military;equipment, «hot

down 1 MiG-17, 1 MiG-21, 1 Allouette-3

helicopter and 1 Hunter jet of the Zimbabwean Armed Forces, killed 167 Zimbabwean soldiers, 2 Soviet and 1 East German

military advisors and that was just for

September alone. Adding up the figures on

a month by month basis the claims would

have the gullible reader in Portugal believe

that during 1985 operations the MNR killed

a total of 5 652 enemy soldiers, wounded

6 033 others and captured 9 544 rifles and

machine guns.

The same magazine states that during

November 1985 two Jesuit priests, father

Silvio Moreira and father John de Deus

Kamtedza, were assassinated onrthe order

of FRELIMO. The MNR propagandists explain that this was because the priests enjoyed good relations with jMNR forces

-operating among the villagers of the

Angonia district in the Tete province <of

Mozambique.. .

.|n ah article entitled «Mozambique, the

hour of Vietnamization*, it is claimed that

30 000 foreign troops are presently operating in Mozambique alongside the regular

government forces. Ofthese troops, 15 000

are said to be Zimbabwean, 10 000

members of the Tanzanian People's

Defence Forces (TPDF) And 3 000 Zatnbians. These forces are furthermore strengthened, claims the MNR .magazine, by

Soviets, Cubans, East Germans and Ethiopian pilots for the MiG-21s. The article's

23
basic contention is that 'Mozambique is

being converted into a Vietnam type situation of a no-win war for the Mozambique

government and its supporters, which in

addition to the Zimbabweans, Tanzanians,

'Cubans, Russians, et al, now include people

like, Tiny Rowlands and the Lonrho organization.

Bizarre claims of secret contact between

Samora Machel and Lisbon based Mozambique political opponents of the FRELIMO

government are also made. It is alleged that'

the Mozambique secret police, SNASP,

have contacted members of FUMO, MONAMO AND FRESAMO, with a view to

their inclusion in the Maputo government.

Somehow, the Libyan leader Muammar

Gadaffi has been brought into the picture

with a suggestion that he will be donating

twelve million dollars to the MONAMO

political organisation.

Also published is the political manifesto

of the MNR which includes a seven point

plan to be implemented by the MNR under

the leadership of Afonso Dhlakama who is

pictured in the magazine at a bush briefing,

somewhere in Mozambique, alongside the

South African vice minister ofinformation,

Louis Nel. Afonso Dhlakama is obviously a

splendid young man, a hero and beloved of

all. He is hailedas the next president of the

Republic of Mozambique should the MNR

and its supporters have it their way.

Perhaps the most sinister aspect of this

magazine are the cover photographs which

depict a MNR rebel holding an AK-47 rifle

and looking for-all the world just like one

of the old Rhodesian Selous Scouts. The

photo on-the Tear shows a group of armed

men carrying G-3 rifles and dressed in the

conspicuous unfirom of the South African

Defence Forces (SADF) and suspiciously

just like Bishop Muzorewa's auxilliary

forces of 1978*-"79. Clear evidence, if further proof was necessary, of South African

involvement in, the direction and deployment t>f the MNR as an instrument Of

regional destabilisation. Q

CSO: 3400/727

/9317

24
MOZAMBIQUE

CAPTURED MNR BANDIT DESCRIBES CAMP IN ZOMBA, MALAWI

Harare THE SUNDAY MAIL in English 21 Dec 86 p 2

[Text] MAPUTO:

A CAPTURED bandMfof

the South African-backed

MNR ha» told Mozambican security that he was

trained at a basevto

Zomba, Inside Malawi. -'

According: to an official

Mozambican source, the

bandit, Benlssone Medembe, says that in Ifce

base there were 1Ä2 bandits who had come front

Mozambique, plus 684 who

had been trained In South

Africa and transferred: to

Malawi. r_

Medembe is 32 years old

and was born near Ml«

lange in Zambezia pro*

vlnce. He claims that he

Was kidnapped and pressganged into the MNR in

Milange in 1984. He and

the other 122 bandits were

taken to the Zomba base

in trucks belonging to the

Malawian prison service«.

Zomba Is in southern

Malawi, some 20 km from

Lake Chilwa, which forms'

the border with parts of

the Mozambican districts

of Milange and Mecanhelas (Nlassa province).

After three weeks of

interrogation Medembe

was returned to the base

where he was given a

senior post.

Medembe said the S84

bandits from South Africa

were told on their arrival

at Zomba to await instructions to enter Mozambique through the Malawian border with

Zaihbezia. * He saw the MNR receive weapons that came

from South Africa, Portugal, the United States

and France. According to

Medembe all the weaponry was controlled by the

Malawian secret police.

Food at the base" was

provided by «he Malawian

authorities' and "other

countries". The base had

two radio transmitters,

and Medembe says he

worked with one of them.

He added that the

MNRto "supreme commanded Afonso Dhiakama, visited the camp

twice. Dhlakama also used

to visit a Malawian witch; •

doctor by the name of

Wahala Walowo at Mlgorl-Pbalombe.

Medembe also spoke of

regular shipments of

drugs from South Africa

for the MNR, and of the

existence of MNR bank

accounts in Malawi

through which bandits

who had trained in South

Africa could exchange

South African rands for

Malawi kwachas.

/ At the.end of September Malawi pushed several

thousand MNR bandits

Into.the Mozambican provinces of Zambezia and

Tete. — Ziana-AIM.

/13046

CSO: 3400/721

25
NAMIBIA

UTILITY CORPORATION TURNED OVER TO PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT

Johannesburg DIE VADERLAND in Afrikaans 24 Oct 86 p 4

[Unattributed article: "South West Takes Over SWAWEK"]

[Text] Pretoria—South West Africa took another step closer to economic

independence yesterday when the South West African Water and Electricity

Corporation (SWAWEK) was transferred by the government of South Africa to

South West Africa at the request of the administrator general.

At the same time South Africa granted a loan of 65 million rands to the

government of South West for the purpose of buying out the shares in SWAWEK

held by the Industrial Development Corporation (NOK).

The balance of the loans granted by South Africa under loan agreements to

SWAWEK for electric service development will be repaid by SWAWEK to the South

African government.

The minister of Mineral and Energy Affairs, Mr Danie Steyn, who acted as

chairman at the transfer, says that arrangements have been made for the

continued supply of electricity to the Walvis Bay enclave.

Mr Dirk Mudge, who acted as the representative of the provisional government

of South West Africa, said on the occasion that they were taking over a

valuable asset and that it would be used for the peace and prosperity of the

country.

Mr Barend du Plessis, finance minister, said at the awarding of the loan that

it constitutes an aspect of the emancipation process whereby the government of

South West accepts more complete financial responsibility in regard to SWAWEK.

According to Mr M. T. de Waal, NOK chairman, SWAWEK is a fundamentally sound

organization which has the ability to supply uninterrupted power at a

reasonable rate.

13238/12851

CSO: 3401/39

26
NAMIBIA

EMPHASIS IN GUERRILLA WAR SHIFTS TO CIVIC ACTION

Pretoria DIE TRANSVALER in Afrikaans 17 Oct 86 p 11

[Article by Jaap de Bruyn: "The Quiet War"; first paragraph is DIE

TRANSVALER introduction]

[Text] In many respects the war in South West Africa/Namibia has become a

"quiet war" in the sense that contact between the South African Defense Force ,

and the South West African Territorial Force no longer regularly makes the

news columns. But the war is still a reality and in many cases the emphasis

has shifted from the battle front to the local populace. Jaap de Bruyn went

to pay a visit to the operational area to see for himself how matters look

there.

A Struggle for the "Hearts" of South West's People

In addition to the armed conflict in South West Africa/Namibia, there is

another struggle raging there—a "quiet war" for the hearts of the local

populace.

The indications are that the Territorial Force in South West and the South

African Defense Force are in the process of winning the struggle—not only in

the military area, but also on the home front.

At the height of its power, SWAPO used its fighting force, the PLAN [People's

Liberation Army of Namibia], to compel the local populace through intimidation

into cooperating with it. Recently, the military successes against the enemy

have enabled the local populace to throw off the PLAN yoke because PLAN can

no longer get at them so easily.

The war in South West can be divided into two phases: the one on the battle

front which forms with PLAN infiltration during the rainy season, and the one

which is undertaken by local military units in the dry season.

It is above all the second part of the action that is not generally known or

does not attrack attention.

The SADF set itself a broader goal than securing the territory for which it is

responsible in the border war. Where it was very evident that SWAPO's

27
struggle was aimed at gaining power and that alone, it is just as evident that

the SADF intervened for the benefit of the local populace in the socioeconomic area.

Instead of intimidation and the vague communistic dispensation which is

offered by SWAPO, the SADF offers a purposeful program which teaches the

people of South West to train and provide for themselves. Already at the

outset it was very evident that there were by no means sufficient numbers of

leaders available to perform the task of education and community service.

The SADF has supplied the qualified personnel needed in the area of teaching,

agriculture, and administration, and also delivers health services where

required.

Assistance is provided only if it is requested and lasts only until such

services can be taken over at the local level.

An investigation which the SADF undertook in 1974 brought to light that almost

all of the pupils attending school in the operational area were only going to

primary schools. To attack the problem, the SADF sent, already in 1974, the

first 15 teachers to Kavango by request.

Next year 152 draftees were assigned to headquarters in Windhoek. They

worked primarily in Ovambo, Kavango, Kaoko and also East Caprivi.

Assistance which the SADF rendered in the area of agriculture has resulted in

the fact that agriculture today in the operational area is not just a

subsistence economy, but that surpluses are being produced there for the first

time.

In 1960 there was only one government hospital in the northern part of South

West—that is, at Rundu. Today there are several well-equipped hospitals in

the operational area. The SADF's doctors and dentists and their medical

orderlies are rendering service on a large scale wherever it is needed. This

includes field clinics.

There Is Still Fight Left in PLAN

Although it is losing support among the local populace at an increasing rate

and is being trounced on the battle field, SWAPO and its military wing PLAN is

not done for yet.

This is the opinion of military experts concerned with the war in South West

Africa/Namibia. PLAN is finding it more and more difficult to strike inside

South West. So far this year it has lost already nearly 500 men. Terrorist

actions thus far this year have been limited to incidents of sabotage, and

infiltrators are clearly afraid to pit their strength against local

territorial forces or the South African Defense Force.

28
But, warn authorities, PLAN is not out of the picture yet. Despite its

heavy losses (approximately 10,000 in the past 10 years) and its inability to

gain recruits, it is nonetheless successful in creating incidents in South

West Africa/Namibia.

Thus far this year there were altogether 249 incidents as opposed to 217 last

year—most of them sabotage.

According to information, PLAN today has only 9,000 men available. Its

recruiting of volunteers from among the local populace in South West is

almost nonexistent, and therefore it kidnaps young people to attempt to

maintain its ranks.

A problem that PLAN also has is that it can only use about 1,500 men in South

West. The rest of its forces are utilized in securing its bases and camps in

Angola against UNITA.

Although PLAN's morale is low, officers are nonetheless succeeding in keeping

the war going. This is done primarily by not giving the lower ranks any

information about losses and also by spreading the rumor that deserters from

PLAN are tortured and killed by the security forces in South West.

Furthermore, commanders control their subordinates by terrorizing them.

Stories of detention, torture, and executions are freely told by deserters

going over to the security forces.

13238/12851

CSO: 3401/39

29
TAMBO ASKS FOR INCREASED ANC AID

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 3 Dec 86 p 16

NIGERIA

[Text] r

PHE president of the

- African. National

Congress (ANC) Mr.

Oliver Tambo, has

advised the Federal

(iovernment to take

seriously the threat by

South' Africa to attack

Nigeria.

Mr. Tambo told news'

men in Lagos yesterday

that Nigeria should be

ready to meet such an

aggression because the

racist regime was des'

perate enough to carry out

the threat.

He said Nigeria.'s

support for the.liberation

struggle in southern

'Africa and the fact that

Nigeria had the capacity'

to make a difference in the

situation there had

.exposed her to South

African aggression.

The ANC leader cited

the death of Mozambican

President Samora Machel

in a plane crash after a

threat on his life by the

racist regime.

Mr. Tambo said there

was no doubt that Mr.

Machel was murdered by

South Africa because

there had been report

from the media less than a

week before the crash that

Pretoria would eliminate

him.

He disclosed that there

was reliable information

that Pretoria was threatening to assassinate

President K.enneth

Kaunda of Zambia and

Prime Minister Robert

Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

According to the Information, the Arfc

leader is also on the list of

prominent leaders to be

eliminated.

' Mr. Tambo said the

ANC took the threats

seriously and would

advise others to do the

same.

Meanwhile. Nigeria has

promised to give more

financial and material aid

lo the ANC.

President Ibrahim

Babangida gave the

pledge in Lagos yesterday

in response to a request

by Mr. Tambo who called

on ham.

Mr. Tambo had requested for an increase in aid

which will enable the

ANC "put the racist

regime under as much

'pressure as possible," and

brake the present

stalemate in South Africa.

President Babangida

agreed with Mr. Tambo

that there was a need to

"push the liberation

struggle forward and

confront the racist regime

with a situation which its

state of emergency laws

would be unable to

contain."

Mr. Tambo said he

came in with personal

greetings from Mr.

Nelson Mandela, the

jailed ANC leader to"

President Babangida.

Ho told President

Babangida that the

morale of freedom fighters

in the racist enclave "is

very high despite an

increase in tMe repression

and arrest of our people ••

/13046

CSO: 3400/712

30
NIGERIA

COMMONWEALTH PRESIDENT, BABANGIDA ON FRONT LINE STATE AID

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 22 Nov 86 p 3

[Text] PRESIDENT Ibrahim Babangida

held a 45-minute meeting with the secretarygeneral oftheCommonwealth, Mr. Shridath

Ramphal, yesterday at

Dodan Barracks.

Their discussions centred around South Africa's

current efforts to

destabilise the front line

states.

Mr. Ramphal told

President Babangida thai

the frontline states,

particularly Mozambique,

needed more support from

Nigeria and other friendly

countries to survive South

Africa's destabilisation

efforts, saying that

economic aid alone might

not be enough.

Mr. Ramphal told President Babangida that the

African National

Congress (ANC) was !

particularly grateful for

the report of the CommonWealth Eminent Persons -

Croup (JEPG) and praised

the role played by General

Olusegun Obasanjo

(retired) in the group.

President Babangida

assured Mr. Ramphal of '

Nigeria's continued

assistance to the Frontline states and expressed

the country's readiness to

do all that was possible to

help the Mozambican

Government survive

South Africa's destabili- '

sation efforts.

In an interview with

State House correspondents later, Mr. Ramphal

said the Commonwealth

was in the vanguard of the

current anti-apartheid

struggle in South Africa.

/13046

CSO: 3400/716

31
LARGE INFLUX OF ALIENS REPORTED

NIGERIA

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 24 Nov 86 p 3

[Text] ANUMBER of aüen

beggars from

neighbouring Niger

Republic have swarmed

major streets in Gusau,

Sokoto State.

According to the report,

the beggars, mostly

women and with their

children, can be found at

the Gusau Motor Park,

the railway station and

other public places

including hotels.

One of the beggars, Aminatou Hammadou, a widow with six small children

said that she came on foot

from Niger Republic

because "my husband

died leaving nothing for

usto live on.

She said that many of

them came to Nigeria

because Nigerians were

generous, pointing out

that many more beggars

would troop into the

country as soon as they

completed harvesting

their crops.

Many of the female

beggars came in with

their husbands or

relatives . who secured

employment from wealthy

Nigerians as night guards.

When contacted, a

source close to the immigration department in

Sokoto said that immigration control posts had

been established in all the

19 local government area«

of the state to check the

influx ofillegal immigrants.

The source said that

immigrants were expected

to register at the immigration post within their area

of residence, but regretted

that many aliens,

especially those without

the necessary pepers, had

not been complying with

the requirement.

/13046

CSO: 3400/716

32
NIGERIA

BABANGIDA WARNS OFFICERS AGAINST MISCONDUCT

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 29 Nov 86 pp 1, 9

[Text ] QJOLDIERS have been

^advised against any

misconduct or acts,

capable of tarnishing the

image of the army and the

present administration.

. President Ibrahim

Babangida, who gave the

advice, said that thesuccess of the administration depended on soldiers,

exemplary . conduct,'

particularly the manner in ' which they-bear the pains

and hardships of the

moment.

- General Babangida was.

addressing officers and

men of the Nigerian Army.,

at the s.mall arms '

championship held ' at .

Igirinta shooting ränge

near Port Harcourt

yesterday.

He said there was need

for soldiers to .

demonstrate to the public

honesty of purpose and

mission as well as

transparent example in

the style of living and

obedience to the laws of

the land.

As members of the

armed forces, he said,

"You have enough at

stake in the leadership

and success of the present '

administration".

The president, however,

urged the soldiers to bear

in mind that it was not the

number of rounds of

ammunition fired which

mattered but the number

of those rounds which hit

the designated targets.

General Babangida said

' he was optimistic that

the army would always

return victorious from

any battle if the soldiers

maintained the present

standard.

Judging from the result

of the competition,

particularly the high

individual and group

scores, he added, the aims

of the competition had

been largely achieved.

He, therefore, congratulated participants at

the championship for

what he described as

'"satisfactory

performances" saying he

believed the high scores

recorded were products of

keen competition and

display of professionalism.

The president' said he.

was happy to

acknowledge with

considerable delight and

appreciation the large

'turn out of other citizens

at the gathering, adding

that he had no doubt that

it was a reflection of the

understanding and cordial

relationship existing

between the army and the.

public in the area.

Army headquarters garrison/signals brigade of

guards, Lagos, emerged

.the overall winner at the

.championship with a total

score of 3,766 points.

The 1st Mechanised

Division, Kaduna, came

second with 3,710 points

while the 2nd

Machanicsed Division,

Ibadan, came third with

3,534 points. NACA,

Lagos, came fourth with

3,520 points. Other

results are 82, Division,

Enugu, 3,516 points (5th)

and 3rd Armoured

Division, Jos, 3,123

points.

The trophy for the best

marksmanship at the

competition went to Lt.

D. U. Eziama.

/13046

CSO: 3400/715

33
BABANGIDA ON RATIONALE BEHIND NATIONAL YOUTH CORPS

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 6 Dec 86 pp 1, 9

NIGERIA

[Text] PRESIDENT Ibrahim;

Babangida yesterday •

in Lagos said that NYSC'

scheme was the first deliberate attempt by the

Federal Government to.'

prevent the recurrence- of

another civil war in the:

country.

In an address readjm'

his behalf by the Chief of^

Naval Staff, Rear- j

Admiral Patrick Koshoni,,

at the president's national

award ceremony • for

NYSC members, President Babangida said

that the scheme hadj

helped to reduce ethnic

prejudices and taboos

among youths.

"It is hoped that this

will have a multiplier

effect on the entire public,

'particularly the older gen-

.eration in due course," he

said.- A ■■■■ •

President Babangida

said that the Federal Military Government was -

fully aware of the impor-'

tance of youth in the

framework Of national

development saying that

"the administration's current emphasis on social

development cannot succeed without the active involvement of the youth.''

He said that it was government intention to harness the leadership qualities of youth corps mem-'

ljers to prepare the youths

for the rapid socio-econo-\

mic development of the

«ountry.

"I believe that the

scheme provides adequate'

avenues andopportunities

for us to use as a vehicle,

for positive social

changes," he said. \ V

In particular, he said,

youth corps members

would constitute' ' the :

major agents and catalysts for the propagation ,

• Of- the tenets of the pro- j

posed national orientation

movement (NOM).

.He declared: "Youth

corps- members will constatute the major agents

.and catalysts for the propagation of the tenets of

the NOM.

President 'Babangida

said as youths constituted

a vital source of

manpower for

development, his administration's policy was to use

NYSC members as launch

pads for mobilizing

youths throughout the

country for meaningful

development.

This, he said accounts

for the fact that NYSC

members have, been deployed to all localgovernment areas to help

in monitoring government

projects under the

auspices of the Directorate of Food, Roads, and

Rural Infrastructure.

President Babangida

announced that the

Federal Government

would soon - introduce

special programmes for

the education ofthe gifted

at all levels. ■■■• "

c

The Minister of Social

; Development, Youth and

i Sports, Air Commodore

Bayo Lawal, said that the

scheme had to "carry the

physical presence and

efforts of Uie government

to all the nooks and

corners of the country."

Twenty-three youth

corps members were conferred with the president's

yearly NYSC honours in

recognition of their excellent performance during

the 1985/86 service year.

Three of them bagged

the president's NYSC

national honours while 20

won the president's state

honours.

/13046

CSO: 3400/716

34
NIGERIA

DEVELOPMENT MINISTER INAUGURATES NATIONAL YOUTHS COMMITTEE

Enugu DAILY STAR in English 26 Nov 86 p 4

[Article by Chuks Nwosu]

[Text] The minister of social development, youth and sports, Air Commodore

Bayo Lawal has inaugurated the National Youths Advisory Committee, (NYAC).

The 27-man committee which has the director of youth development, federal

ministry and social development, youth and sports, Mrs J. Oki, as Chairperson,

comprises representatives of the federal ministries, armed forces, national

sports commission, states representatives on zonal basis and representatives

from voluntary organisations.

In inaugurating the committee, Air Commodore Bayo Lawal disclosed that it is

expected to design a package of action programmes for the realisation of the

objectives of the national youths policy and to enhance the involvement and

participation of the youths in national development, foster national unity

and understanding amongst the youth and inculcate in them the virtues of

patriotism, discipline selfless service, honesty and leadership, with a view

to ensuring a purposeful sense of direction for the nation.

He further charged the committee to propose guidelines for the effective

implementation of the programmes like the National Youth Employment Programme

and the National Youths Award programme all of which are provided for the

National Youths Policy.

He directed that youths advisory committees at the federal, state and local

government levels should be appointed by the respective governments in

compliance with section 3, paragraph 10, of the National Youths Policy,

specifically to advise the governments on all matters affecting the youth.

Air Commodore Bayo Lawal urged the committee to give particular attention to

the mobilisation of the youths in order to drastically reduce the rural urban

drift amongst them, stressing that the problems of the youth are manifold

since youth by it's nature is sensitive to the rapid changes occurring in the

contemporary world."

/13046

CSO: 3400/717

35
BABANGIDA ON NEED TO DIVERSIFY REVENUE BASE

NIGERIA

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 9 Dec 86 pp 1, 9

[Text] THHE

A nue

declining revenue and subvention <

from government have'

made it imperative now

for public and private

organisations to diversify

their revenue bases,

President Ibrahim

Babangida has said.

He said this was

necessary more than ever;

before as Nigeria was now I

passing through a difS j

cult period which had'

necessitated the introduc-;

tion of a re-adjustment : programme to revamp the :

economy. .'.'■■'.]

President Babangida j

was speaking in Lagos

yesterday at the inaugu- j

ration of the Nigerian ,

Institute of International

Affairs (NIIA) endow- ;

ment foundation.

He said that with the!

country's over-dependence on oil, the situation

would continue to pose a

challenge from time to

time.

President

Babangida stated

that the inauguration of the

foundation by

the NIlA'wasa commendable and significant step

to reduce Ute absolute

dependence on government.

He observed that the

NIIA had in the 25 years

of its history justified its

existence and the dream

ofits founding fathers.

President Babangida ,

said in addition that the • NIIA had continued to j

live up to the national1

expectations in the area of

international affairs. 1

He commended its

directors-general from

1961, when the NIIA was

established, for helping to;

stimulate public aware-:

ness and interest in'

foreign affairs generally

and in Nigerian foreign,

policy in particular. i

He said the continued

growth of theNIIAi

lio'rary and archive

resources and its research

and publications programme had gone a long

way to strengthen its

reputation as "a unique

centre in Africa for

advance study of foreign'

affairs."

President - Babangida

recalled that the NIIA

was established on'

December 13, 1961, as a

non-governmental, nonpolitical, and non-profit

making organisation.

He said: "It was taken

over by the Federal

Government -in August

1971 in order to give fy the

needed financial support

for the kind of,responsi-'

bility it is expected to

shoulder and was allowed

to retain its non-political

and non-profit-making

status."

He used the occasion to

inaugurate the 12-man

board of trustees for the

institute. j

They include Chief P. C.\

Asiodu, Chief Alison

Ayida, Alhaji Adamu

Ciroma, Chief Michael

Ibru, Alhaji Ahmed Joda,

Alhaji Shehu Malami,

Alhaji Aliko Mohammed,,

.and Professor Ben Nwa-i

bueze. ■■.'.':•".-.'Vi|

. Others are Chief C. Ö. i

Ogunbanjo, Dr. P.C.N.!

Okigbo. Major-General

Musa Yar'adiia and j

Alhaji Hamza Zayad.

' President Babangida

said: "The inauguration of*

this foundation should bet

seen as a commendable

and a significant step

taken to reverse"the trend

of absolute dependence on

government to provide

everything from its

limited resources. • ,

"I am confident that

the members of the board

of trustees will make

concrete and sustained'

efforts to ensure that the

foundation enjoys the

financial and moral

support of the general

public.

"This renowned institute has placed upon your

shoulders a very hervy

responsbility. but "I am

confident that being men

of achievements and

distinctions in your

various disciplines you

will succeed.

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36
NIGERIA

GOVERNMENT INTRODUCES REVISED TARIFF ON EXCISE DUTIES

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 12 Nov 86 pp 1, 13

[Text] A REVISED tariff

on excise duties

has been introduced by

the Federal Government. .

'The new tariff is

aimed at giving

necessary ' protection,

to local industries as

well as providing

support to non-oil

export . promotion:

measures.

. This was made known

by the Chief of General

Staff, Rear Admiral

Augustus Aikhomu, in an

address at the opening

ceremony of the Lagos

International Trade,

Seminar in -Lagos;

yesterday.:

J

In the address, which

was read on his behalf by

Chief Omowale Kuye,

Director of Budget in the,

Ministry of Finance, the

Chief of General Staff

said: "Such revamped

tariff and exchange rate

policies will provide muchneeded incentives for

developing locallyproduced raw materials."

He disclosed that a

decree Would - soon be

promulgated for the

discontinuation of import

and- export licencing

schemes, cancellation of

export duty import levy

and price controls.

. While x-raying. the

. remote and immediate

. causes of our present

economic predicaments,

the Chief of General Staff

said that as at the end of

1985, medium-andJongterm public -debts

outstanding was 12.9

billion US dollars, and

accumulated- • general

trad»arrears at the end of

. 1983 amounted to 89:6

billion in claims by foreign

exporters..

"The Central Bank has

, only been able to confirm

• and accept« total of 1.923

billion US dollars to

date", he added.

Rear Admiral Aikhomu

said the present

structural adjustment

programme covering, the

period 'July 1986. to

June 1988, was an

attempt to set our

government's strategy for

addressing the continuing

crisis.

He said: "The essence of

this strategy is the

restoration in the

medium-term of a

healthier path of national

economic development as

a component of the

integrated world

economy." .

• Rear Admiral Aiknomu '

explained that the major

objectives ' of the

government's restructur-.

ing programme are:

(i) To restructure .and

diversify the productive {

base of the economy in

order to reduce

dependence; on the .oil

sector and on imports; -

(ii) To achieve fiscal and

balance of payment

viability overthe period; >

: (iii) To lay the basis for '

sustained non-inflationary .

or minimal inflationary ,

growth;

(iv) To reduce the ;

dominance of

unproductive investments

in the public sector;

improve public sector

efficiency and intensify

the growth potential of

the private sector.

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37
EXPORT PROMOTION COUNCIL SLATED FOR REORGANIZATION

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 10 Nov 86 p 3

NIGERIA

[Text]

THE Export Promotion Council is being

re-organised in full;

consultation with the

organised private sector

to make the council

functional, Trade

Minister, Alhaji Sumaila

Mamman. revealed

last Friday.

Speaking at the opening

of the beta Lagos

International Trade Fair'

Alhaji Mamman also pro- ;

.mised that the govern- , ment would simplify and '

streamline the

bureaucratic procedures

involved in export

documentation to usher in

an era of economic1

freedom.

He, however, added: "It

's hoped that the.

international competitiveness of the pricing

structure of our locallyproduced products

including primary

commodities shall provide)

a great incentive to our '

potential exporters."

He assured potential'

exporters of the easy

transferability and

convertibility of. the

foreign exchange proceeds

ofthe exports through the,

domiciliary accounts into

the Second-tier* "Foreign^

Exchange Market

(SFEM.)

This, he said, is a

chalienim to the, private

sector,, nxpressuur ,'"1

hope tnat they would not

fail the nation.

The president of the

Nigerian Chamber of

Commerce, Industry,

Mines and Agriculture

(NACCIMA), Chief Akin-:

George suggested ways to

make the SFEM achieye

the desired objectives.

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38
GOVERNMENT APPROVES FUNDS TO FIGHT UNEMPLOYMENT

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 20 Nov 86 p 24

NIGERIA

[Text] THE Federal Government has approved

N174 million for the creation of job opportunities

for all unemployed

Nigerians.

Labour and Productivity Minister, Brigadiei

Ike Nwachukwu said,this

followed the acceptance of

the recommendation of

the committee set up for

working out strategies for

dealing with mass

unemployment.

The committee had

recommended that N174

imillion be made available

to the' directorate of

employment for creating

job opportunities in the

country.

Brigadier Nwachukwu

who was speaking while

inaugurating members of

the directorate for emp

loyment in Lagos yesterday, said the directorate

was expected to look into

loiig and short-term

measures for providing

employment ana that d

sum of N25 million had

been provided'for the directorate's take-off.

The directorate is

expected to implement

the national y<outh

employment and mobilisation . programme which

would train unemployed

youths between the age?

of 16 and 21 years in

various self employment

skills. .' '.' The 28-m.ember

directorate to implement

the recommendations of

the committee,- is headed

by Brigadier Nwachukwu.

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39
NIGERIA

INFORMATION MINISTER ON OVERSEAS CENTERS CLOSURE

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 14 Nov 86 p 3

[Text]

THE Federal Government has slashed

from 32 to'19 information

centres in Overseas countries for effective operation.

Information Minister,

Mr. Tony Momoh announced this in Lagos yesterday. He disclosed that the

information centres were

being strengthened to

maintain 19 posts abroad

which will be activated in .

three phases.

The 19 posts, the minister continued would

include those currently

functional in Washington

DC; New York, London

and Bonn which will cater

for all the regions of the

world including West and

Southern Africa, and

EasternEurope.

Mr. Momoh stressed

that it has become more

important that a country

like Nigeria should

publicise its activities

abroad and ensure that its

image" is such that it is

free of stereotypes that

were once associated with

it," he said.

He said conscious of

this fact, the present

administration has

decided to pay attention

to its external image.

Mr. Momoh said just as

foreign policy "is now

regarded as a twin brother

of domestic policy in view

of the world economic

order, publicity at home

without publicity abroad,

is not enough to sustain a

country, its government

andpeopfe."

On the News Agency of

Nigeria (NAN), Mr.

Momoh said the agency

had come a long way since

it became operational

eightyearsago.

He Mid today, the

agency has carved a nkhe

for itself in the Nigerian

media structure, such

that any mishap befalling

it would affect the rest of

themedia structure.

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40
NIGERIA

PETROLEUM MINISTER HINTS AT HIGHER DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Kano THE TRIUMPH in English 19 Nov 86 p 1

[Article by Bashir Umar]

[Text] OIL subsidy by the Federal Government may

again be withdrawn to a higher percentage than >

what obtains at present. '

The Minister for Petroleum and Energy, Alhaji

Rilwanu Luicman drquped this hint while answering ;

questions from State House correspondents in Lagos .'

yesterday.. []

He said, the present 80 per cent withdrawal might; i

rise higher due to the introduction of the Secönd-tier ;

Foreign Exchange Market and the current low producuon quota of crude oil by the OPEC.

"Answering a question

on the possible dwindl-:

i'ng Of next year's

budget, the minister said

his ministry would give

technical advice to the

PederaL Government

with due consideration

to the world oil market

situation.

On. the possible

deterioration . of the

OPEC administration as

regards the recent forced

exit of the powerful.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, Sheikh Zaki

Yamani, Alhaji

Lukman, who is the current OPEC President

•declined to comment but

said: "Let us wait for a i

policy statement from

the Federal

Government". ' ' !

. He however indicated ,

that the next OPEC :

meeting which comes up \

next month would be

stormy and hectic

because many new things

would come up.

The minister's discus- !

sion with, the president

yesterday was not made

public but sources at the

Dodan Barracks said

that it was not uncon--

necred with next year's

budget. _

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41
ABACHA ON ARMY FUEL CONSUMPTION RATE, SUPPLIES

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 2 Dec 86 p 12

NIGERIA

[Text]

THE Chief of Army

Staff, Major Genera}

Sanni Abacha, is unhappy

at the rate of fuel consumption within the

Nigerian Army.

Said he: "The high rate

of fuel consumption in the

army far exceeds realities."

Major General Abacha

made the observation in

Benin yesterday in an

address he,presented at

warrant officers training

week held at the Army

School of Supply and

Transport, Ugbowo.

- He said he was sure

,that . mishandling ' of

vehicles and possibly

pilferages were the causes

Of the high volume of fuel

consumption adding this

could be avoided if

warrant officers could

. take pains to do a

thorough supervision of

their men at all times.

Stressing the

importance of Army

School of Supply and

Transport, Major General

Abacha said that for

any army to sustain its

fire power and mobility in

war, there must be a

thoroughly'reliable distribution network for

ammunication, fuel, food,

and other vital combat

stores to battle areas in

the face of hostile enemy

action.

He said that training

was a prerequisite for any

army - that aspires to

"bleed less in time of

war."

He said: "conscious of

this universally agreed

maxim, the Nigerian

Army has made it a

matter of deliberate policy

to accord training a high

priority to equip its rank

and file with the.

necessary knowledge and

skills to enhance the

performance of their

duties."

He said the' Army

School of Supply and

Transport must take

training very seriously in

orcbr to play 'its role

properly in the army.

In his speech the

director of Supply and

Transport, Brigadier S. A.

Ikya, remarked that

Warrant officers formed

the foundation on which:

the army is built.

He, therefore, urged

them to ensure that there

was' discipline "'ithin the

rank and file.

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42
NIGERIA

INTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTRY FUNCTIONING AT ABUJA

Enugu DAILY STAR in English 11 Dec 86 p 16

[Text]

THE Minister of Internal Affairs, Col.;

John snagaya, said ini<

Abuja that the ministry

was now fully functional !

at the Federal Capital

Territory.

• He said at the second minis- ;

terial press briefing thai for ihe ;

past one week all the directors .;

and heads of departments, with

their supporting staff including:;

himself, had been operating in

Abuja.

In answer to a question, he

•said: "Whether both the offire

and residential accommodation

are temporary or permanent,

my ministry is now operating

from the new capital pending

the completion of all

permanent structures."

The minister said that the

Customs and Excise Department generated a total of N2.4

billion between January and

September of the W.9 billion .

expected from the department'

this year, adding that the target;

would be achieved or exceeded '

in spite of the abolition of Ihe

30 per cent import levy.

Col Snagaya said that

between January and October

this year; 94 hard drug seizures ;

valued at N30 million were.;

made at Murtala Muhammed '

International Airport. 1

He said thai smuggling was

on the decline with 756 seizures

.kovolvina.226 sjuspects between

January and August this year as

against 1,040 seizures involving :

33$ «aspects within the same .

period tauyear. . . J

Col Shagaya said that 23

officials of the department had

been suspended for their

alleged involvement in

smuggling and that an investigation panel had been set up to'

determine the extent of their

involvement.

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43
NIGERIA

NLC'S CHIROMA ON NEED TO REFORM SFEM FUNDING

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 8 Dec 86 p 5

[Article by Funmi Jolaoso]

[Text] A DELEGATES' con-1

ference takes place-!

either bi-ennially, or tri-j

ennially, and it is the only !

.forum at which workers and

their leaders both elected

and or appointed meet. It is'i

also an occasion, for >

questioning the activities of i

union officials' and',

'approving certain actions ?

expected from the union. <'

One of such conferences'/

was held last month by the.,

National Union of Textile,

.Garment, and Tailoring ;

.Workers Union of Nigeria !

'hi Kaduna. As expected, i

various speakers spoke on '

the nation's economic

policy, as it affects the

workers standard of living" '

It was therefore not a surprise that the Second-tier

Foreign Exchange Market i

(SFEM) was the focus.

The president of the

Nigeria Labour Congress

(NLC), Alhaji Ali Chiroma

called for a change in the ;

present method of funding . SFEM. He contended that ;

borrowing to run the

market amounted to living

beyond our ' means

and getting more

entangled in foreign debts.

He said that the free

market system had not

been free to labour because

labour has not been allowed

to iind its level.

The NLC president said

that the nation's economists:

have continued to advise

!" government to allow

market forces determine!,

price by scrapping the

price control aspect of the

Price , Productivity and

Incomes Board (PPIB) and

urging government to,

-retain the wages and

colledtive bargaining >

control aspect of PPIBJ /

"They want ' the ,

(government to hold the bull

by the horns while they

milk the cow". That was ,

why the economic recovery

programme had no |

provision for the welfare of i

workers", he argued. i

Alhaji Chiroma recalled a

report in the Nigerian

Tribune of November 24,

which revealed that the

Federal Government had

rejected the World Bank

advice on the suspension of

projects in Abuja and'the

abandonment of steel and

petro-chemical projects in

the nation's 1987 fiscal

,year.

He wondered how the

World Bank that is'

supposed £o help facilitate

national recovery should .

gave such advice. "It is a

pity that until the World

Bank declared Abuia/steel'

and petro-chemical projects

as military targets, it did

not dawn on our policy

makers that an economic

and political war was

unleashed on Nigeria".

Alhaji Chiroma ' -then

commended the action of

the Federal Government^

and urged workers to

support the preservation of

sovereignty and integrity of

the nation. He reiterated,

.that the NLC's opposition

to the IMF conditions was !

because the congress view- j

ed it as a form of economic j

colonisation. ■■■- _ j

-Chiroma's keynote" i

address was followed by i

fraternal messages from ; other unions. The Medical '

and Hearth Union, noted

.that trade unions Jleed_to '

invest more in education so ;

that a worker would be able '.

i to know when his rights are

infringed. The union rioted „

that it was unfortunate that

while workers produced

more as evident in huge

profits, workers earn less,

while the prices of goods

and services rose beyond ;

; the pay packets ofworkers.

TKe representative o? the I

: National Union of Chemical

and Non-mettalic Product . Workers, Kaduna State

branch, Mr. Audu Brown

criticised the flamboyant '

lifestyle of trade unionists.

"Unionists should not line

their pockets with" money

and claim to fight the cause

ofworkers.".

Labour he said, cannot

afford to be indifferent to

the nation's economic

policy. "Labour must check ,

the nation's leaders in

respect of our "economy".

44
;Browu also told delegates !

that affiliates of te NLC >

|od not been living up to']

expectation in supporting:

the NLC leadership. ,; j

's Speaking in the same '

'.tone, Mr. Mustapna Zarna, ;

chairman of the care-taker

committee of the Kaduna

State NLC advised trade

unionists. to stop:

perpetuating tribalism and

nepotism within the labour*

movement to enable them

-enhance • the welfare of

workers.

He said it was a pity that';

some unionists go to

negotiation tables to agree

to retrenchment of workers.

Zarna said "there are na

cowards in the NLC." His

'remark was greeted with

applause.

• In his fraternal message, \

the executive secretary of '.

the Nigeria Textile, ' Garment -and Tailoring

'Employers Association

Mr. Victor Eburajolo,

commended the leaderhsip

of the Textile Workers ;

Union for its maturity in ;

handling industrial !

"relations. "Since the res- :

tructuring of trade unions,

there has never Been a

'general strike in the textile

iindustry, because the union

'leaders have been

understanding" said.,

Eburajolo. He advised the.

Federal "Government to r.

take stringent measures to

stop retrenchment.-

fin "'his address, : the:

'secretary •'. of the,

International "Garment

Workers Union of the

United States of America,

Mr. Norman Lewis said

that workers, all over the

world should see «

themselves as one. He said

the textile industry in the ., United States which had

18,000 workers about a:

decade ago now has 4,000

workers.

He said importation of

textile materials into the

United States from other

countries had cost the US-_ j

based textile industry her j

earnings. Mr. Norman said )

workers in the industry had ]

tried to make the US

Congress regulate Imports : without success. The bill he ;

said was to help workers

keep their jobs and enable

the industry survive. ;:.-•

The union national

'executive report, read by its j

tgeneral secretary, Mr. •

iAdams Aiiyu Oshiomhole, ,

listed "1 the union's.!

"achievement^ as_ the ;

abolition of Saturday work

on the basis of five-day-40- ;

hour working week without j

loss of pay. The union also ;

persuaded employers to.'

pay gratuity to employees j

who were dismissed on J

grounds of absenteeism; . Mr. Oshiomhole also told

delegates that the union has

succeeded in making

employers that record huge'.']

profits pay bonus .and}

incentives to workers. {'j

.Mr. Adams Oshiomhole ,

who led ^he ' congress's

delegation to present

labour's views about the

1987 budget said he told

the Presidential Advisory

Committee (PAC) which

received labour's views on

behalf of the Federal

Government that industries

should be compelled to reinvest their profits. "Most

industries do not re-invest,

but maximise profit by

producing less and selling

at high prices."

'He said the high cost of

living should make workers

demand cost of living

allowance (COLA) since the

'government has pegged •

wage increases but gave

room for increase in fringe

benefits. "Labour creates

: wealth but does not control

it," he noted.

On the activities of the

NLC, Mr. AdanM

Oshiomhole said it was a*

fact that the congress was

not united. He warned that

this does not mean that it

cannot mobilise a.

nationwide strike whenever

the need arises. "Unity is

not an end in itself, it is a

myth to sustain an end", he

said. •/-. «;

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45
NIGERIA

SPARE PART PRODUCTION AT AJAOKUTA STEEL MILL

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 20 Nov 86 pp 1, 13

[Article by Raheem Mohammed]

[Text] |\/|ANY companies

lVJ.have nöw turned

to Ajaokuta Steel

Complex for the procurement Of spare

parts for their

machines.

The companies are:

• Peugeot Automobile of Nigeria Limited

(PAN) for the production of several tonnes

of brake drums.

• Nigeria Tobacco

Company for more

than M1.& million

worth ofspare parts.

• Ukpilla Cement

Factory for several

tonnes of machine

studs' and

• Täte and Lyle also

for spare parts.said to

be worth millions of

naira.

The general manager

of the steel complex,

Alhaji Magaji Inuwa,

disclosed this in Ajaokuta on Sunday.

The general manager

said the orders were

sequel to the establishment ofthe mechanical

repair shop within the

steel complex.

Apart from providing

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the essential spare parts

for various companies in

the country, the repair

shop is also capable of

operating and maintaining its facilities with

very little outside assistance.

The repair shop is

essentially to carry out

centralised repairs of

mechanical and electrical

-equipment and to manufacture spare parts, tools

and steel fabricated structures.

Alhaji Inuwa expressed

the hope that when the

repair shop was. fully

operational, the mechanical repair workshop

would have the capacity

to produce about 11,200

tonnes of castings,

machine parts and steel

fabricated structures.

The complex is designed

to meet about 67 per cent

of the steel plant's total

spare parts and consumable requirements.

Another section of the

repair complex is the

power equipment repair

shop capable of handling

up to 15,000 electrical

machines (electrical

motors of up to 800

kilowatts and transformers of up to 1600 KVA)

yearly.

The repair workshop

would require a work force

of up to 1,670.

The general manager

also disclosed that 71 per

cent of work on the first

stage of the project has

been completed.

The first stage is jto

produce 1.3 million tonnes

yearly of "long products"

while the second stage

will produce 2.6 million

tonnes out of,which 1.3

million tonnes would be

for flat produces only.

The third stage will

extend to 5.2 million

tonnes yearly to turn out

various types of finished

and semi-finished steel

products, including heavy

plates and sections and

such products that might

be dictated by the market

situation.

The advantages of the

repair shop are rapid

acquisition of technology

for rapid industrial development of the nation,

conserving the scarce

foreign exchange for other

capital investments,

increasing the economic

lives of our plants and

machineries and development of engineering skills.

46
NIGERIA

COLLEGE GRADUATE UNEMPLOYMENT ON INCREASE

Lagos BUSINESS TIMES in English 17 Nov 86 p 24

[Article by Dapo Ajibola]

[Text] f|lHE^*iiän^rfün-i

graduates ^registered]

In Nigeria, accordant

to the Employment.

' Services Department i

jof iMeralMimstry of|

Employment 1^

PiH«i V-'APrad^tiyfty^

increased :;by*iu\2 perj|

centin May thiayearv q

!: Reports from the pro- j

fessionat and «Meutfve>

registriesofptedepart-;

meat all - eve*Vthe

country indicated ä.132]

unemployed 'graduates j

for.the monthof May as \

against the total of 2,978 i

carried over from April. : |

'";The professional and a

technical group led with

_a>T followed '; by

architects . <,qg <

engineers, with -V»V]

while accountants hadi

«2.''" '.[

The registry in Ibadatti

recorded the highest figure

of 1,814 applicants in thei

life register. Of this figure <

364 are accountants, 461.!

architects and engineers, j

101 medical,: dental and!

veterinary, 3GTgovernment':

administrators,. 52'

manager«, .,,$&. _.W»!

"scientists,, seven physical 1

scientist», 19 statisticians,',]

22 sculptors, IS journalists, j

five-jurists, 23 teachers andi

362 other professionals; j

Kaduna registry followed;

with 338 having: a break";

down of 53 architects and J

engineers,,;: 22 • medicato

; dental i and veterinary, 27j

accountants* 31 government]

administrators,', seven]

managers, 14 teachers, 157:

Hfe scientists, 157 other,

professionals, >' ■■' '-'six

journalists, three .'physical

scientists and one statist?-'

/ Lage» registry-camethird.,

with 272,: some of those 1

registered Were 42 archi-l

tectfi':: and' * engineers, 25.3

: accountants,' "•. .-.-; Iftj

stetistieians,rlilWKhers,l2!

Bfe scientists-, 81 manager», J

23>: ?••'' ' "'•* government]

administrator» four,.!

physical' scientists, 53.!

professionals•-. and- three*

medical; dental and.veteri-;

. nary.. i

From Benin and Warn j

registries were-.recorded

48t applicants, of which.

five were "architects and .

engineers, five life seien- <.

tlsts; six teachers and 30 !

other professionals.

•' Bauchi registry had 38 j

registered with' 11

architects and engineers,

five teachers one fron» the :

•^medicat-aBiÄlaÄ'^tJäl^.'.]

; nary group* seven govern* :\

"ineUt administrators and* j

fourother.professionalsf. j

'-/The. increase .-in, un- ',

^inploynient - in " these •]

classes of professions is j

ascribed to the continued "j

economic; •". recession-i

,, coupled with'the retrench- j

. roeritvexerdse:of the fast

fewyears which continued

tathefirst half of 1986. •.

While unemploymentf

remained • a -serious

problem:confronting the j

economy ;• only ..limited |

vacancies were declared in 1

the registries. '-.:,/ 1

Ä Atetatöf 165'vacancies!

. wer» .brought', 'forward -j

.from; the month of- April j

while 43. were notified in ]

May. Out of the total 208 1

vacancies Only- 12 were '

filled. ■■''"{

From the above figures !

and .contrary to popular

belief that unemployment *

is prevalent among unskilled labour and illequipped persons, only, it

could be seen that unemployment has gradually

found its way into the •

classes of those

possessing requisite

skills. ,_... ,i. .-■■•.—

/13046

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47
NIGERIA

ABU VICE CHANCELLOR ON MEASURES TO PREVENT CAMPUS DISCORD

Lagos THE AFRICAN GUARDIAN in English 27 Nov 86 p 42

[Interview with Professor Adamu Mohammed, Vice Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello

University by Richard Umaru; date and place not specified]

[Text] The African Guardian: A result of last

May's crisis, the government White

Paper on the Abisoye Commission's report directed that certain reforms be

carried out at the ABU to avert future

re-occurence of the tragic crisis. Since

your arrival here what specific measures

have been taken in that direction?

Mohammed: The white paper recommended a number ofthings. Specifically

it recommended the creation of the

office' of Dean of Students' Affairs. That

is a very significant recommendation

which we have implemented. As you.

know, the Ahmadu Bello University

has never had the office of the Dean of

Students Affairs as such. There was an

attempt in the mid-70s, I think, to

create such an office, but it did not really work properly. So, what we have

done now is to appoint a Dean of Students' Affairs,.and under him you have

Accommodation Officer, counselling

section, scholarship section and so on.

There are about, eight sections

altogether. This office is directly under

the Vice-Chancellor. To make them

work more, efficiently, we have

arranged that they will be financiallyautonomous, subject of course, to

accountability.

There is in addition to this what we call

a university Students' Welfare Board of

which the Dean of Students' Affairs is

the chairman. This board is made up of

all the Deans of Faculties, all the Hall

Administrators, all the Hall Advisers

and Security Officers, the Director of

Works and of course, the students. So,

the board is very powerful. Apart from

that, the board is made up of what we .

call the Dean, Students' Advisory Committee. The composition of that committee at that level consists ofthe Dean,

. the Faculty Adviser who is a staff, and

the students"1representatives. So that

problems from the grassroots come to

the university-wide Students Welfare

Board where the Dean is sitting so that

he can bring all the, problems from the

. grassroots to the main body. We feel

that with these arrangements, communication is enhanced because everybody is involved.

Are you going to lift the suspension

order on the Students' Union?

Well, the government White Paper

banned students unionism in the country for the rest of the last session. It said

this can be resumed when the university

councils are satisfied that it can be resumed. So, that is the position. Anytime that'the university council feels

that students unionism can be permitted

to resume,.we shall lift the suspension.

Some teaching staff were said to be

teaching things they were not paid to

teach and were recommended for disci-

' plinary action by the Abisoye Commission. Are you thinking of doing something in this direction?

No. No. I think, if I remember correctly, on that recommendation, the

government set up the Akanbi Commission to look further into that. That is

one of their terms of reference. So, as

far as I am concerned, that recommendation does not concern me because we have our own ways of getting

48
rid of people who are not doing their

work and rewarding people who are

doing their work.

You have carried out a series of administrative reorganizations since you took

office here. What is the philosophy behind these changes that you have carried

out?

It is not just change for change's sake

at all. I looked at every Curriculum

Vitae. I called for the situation report

throughout the university. I made the

appointments of.Heads of Department

in the light of what 1-had seen. I have

appointed people whom I believe are

academically sound, to head departments.

They also are administratively sound. 1

expect them to hold departmental meetings and I expect them to show me the

minutes ofsuch meetings so that we can

see what is happening in the departments. What we are trying to do is to

appoint people who are acceptable to

the departments because this is very imWhat arCyou doing to arrestthe problem ofshortage and outflow of academic

staff in the university?

•staff are leaving because of the

economic situation. The 25 per cent of

their salary they are allowed to transmit, they cannot transmit because of

certain problems with the banks and so

on. Now we have the Second-tier

Foreign Exchange Market, which has

made the problem worse.

But the only thing to do is to step up

our post-graduate training and staff development programmesin orderto have

our own people who will replace mobile

academic staff, foreign academic staff;.

And. we have; been doing a lot in this

respect.

What is your ideal university? What

would you like ABU ideally to be? What

would you like to- be remembered for

when you finally leave the ABU as one of

its vice-chancellors?

A university is a centre of learning. I

want to promote the cause of academics

in the university. By that I mean that I

want to give the facilities to the staff so

that they can perform academically, to

produce the needed manpower. The

leadership I wantto give is leadership by

example, If my subordinates do not

live as I live and perform as I do, thenof

course, they would have no place in my

heart.

And I want to reward academics for

their achievements and to punish those

who do not work hard and do not produce anything. This basically is my philosophy. I want to improve communication between staff and students and of

course, I want to encourage peace. My

administration is open. There is nothing

to hide. We believe in the committee

system. Through discussions a lot of

problems can be solved. I do not believe

that Vice-Chancellorship is a throne.

We would do our best and leave the rest

to posterity.

/13046

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49
NIGERIA

BRIEFS

BABANGIDA ENCOURAGES FOREIGN INVESTMENTS—Foreign investors should feel free

to come to Nigeria now that the business climate and incentives have been

made favourable, President Ibrahim Babangida urged in Lagos yesterday. He

told investors to regard the current economic difficulties in the country as

a 'passing phase1in our march towards industrialisation. President Babangida

said government had great faith in the potentials of the country. It was this

faith, he said, that made government fashion out an adjustment programme

aimed at removing identified impediments in the way to agricultural, industrial and commercial development. Mr. President extended the 'special

invitation to foreign businessmen yesterday, in his speech read at the

opening ceremony of the Sixth Lagos International Trade Fair, which ends next

Sunday. Chief of General Staff, Rear Admiral Augustus Aikhomu, read the

President's speech at the Tafawa Balewa Square, Lagos, venue of the fair.

The President reviewed the current adjustment programme and said it was

yielding desired results. "Already, there are signs that our policies are

beginning to work. I therefore call on all our foreign friends to seize the

initiative by investing in a vast and virile economy." President Babangida

said as from next year, all international trade fairs will be staged at the

international Trade Fair. [Text] [Lagos SUNDAY TIMES in English 9 Nov 86

p 24] /13046

UNEMPLOYMENT SOARS—Unemployment rate in Nigeria rose by 11.7 per cent in the

first half of 1986, compared with the same period in 1985, according to the

Central Bank of Nigeria half year report. The CBN also revealed that the

employment exchanges recorded 33,160 persons, who belong to the lower grade

working group as jobless. Although, job vacancies declared, rose by 25.8

per cent, only 2.2 per cent of registered job-seekers secured jobs through

the various employment exchanges. The CBN stated that the Federal Office of

Statistics in its March 1986 report, revealed that unemployment rate in the

urban areas was 9.1 per cent and rural areas at 5.6 per cent. Industrial

relations was also reported to have worsened in the first half of the year.

During the period, 65 trade disputes were declared as against 18 of the same

period in 1985. The CBN revealed that 40 our of the 65 trade disputes

declared resulted in strikes, "carrying a loss of 193,322 man-hours." [Text]

Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 15 Nov 86 p 24] /13046

ROAD TO STEEL PLANT IN DISREPAIR—The Ude Road leading to the Delta Steel

Company (DSC) Limited, Ovwian-Aladja, near Warri in Bendel State is now in a

50
serious state of disrepair. Investigations by the Daily Times showed that

unless something urgent was done, the steel plant might be cut-off entirely

from this important access road. Little had been done by the state government to rehabilitate the road it was commissioned in 1976. It was gathered

that DSC had been maintaining the road until recently when the economic

down turn which affected the government subvention to parastatals made the

company to abandon the periodic maintenance of the road. The road, which is

now in a deplorable state serves Ughelli Ethiope and Warri local government

areas. The road has a heavy traffic because of the Delta Steel products

which customers convey to various destinations in the country through the

road. Because of the state of the road, business in the area has slowed down

considerably as the movement of taxi and buses have reduced. Those who risk

the bad road charge more than the normal fare. [Text] [Lagos DAILY TIMES in

English 13 Dec 86 p 3] /13046

AID TO EQUATORIAL GUINEA~The Federal Government has donated goods valued at

more than 5 million US dollars to the government of Equatorial Guinea to help

it host the Economic and Customs Union of African States' conference. Three

Nigerian Air Force C130 planes started the air lifting of the materials

yesterday to Malabo. A high-powered delegation from Equatorial Guinea

recently called on President Ibrahim Babangida to seek Nigeria's support and

assistance in the country's development efforts. [Text] [Lagos DAILY TIMES

in English 3 Dec 86 p 3] /13046

TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE FOR AJAOKUTA--A Federal Institute of Steel Technology

is to be established in the country. The institute, which will have its

headquarters in Ajaokuta, would also have a campus at Onitsha. Sources

close to the Federal Ministry of Mines, Power and Steel said that the

Metallurgical Training Institute, built with more than M44 million in

Ajaokuta, will serve as the headquarters. The Metallurgical Training

Institute in Onitsha would become a campus of the institute. The source

explained that the idea of the institute was engineered by Professor Tam

David-West when he was mines and power minister. According to the source,

the institute is to be autonomous with a director-general on level 17 with

six other supporting staff on level 16. The school would equally have an

independent body for its management. The source also disclosed that the

institute's headquarters had requested for M12 million to enable the school

take off early next year. [Text] [Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 24 Nov 86

p 1] /13046

INSPECTOR GENERAL ASSURES ENVOYS—The Inspector General of Police, Alhaji

Muhammadu Gambo, yesterday in Lagos assured members of the diplomatic _

community of adequate police protection of their lives and property while in

the country. Welcoming representatives of the diplomatic corps in his

office, Alhaji Gambo said that the police had [source illegible]en up the

challenge of guaranteeing peace and security to all citizens in the

country. Responding, the dean of the diplomatic corps and Senegalese

ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Saloum Kande, assured the Inspector General of

the willingness of the diplomats to assist the Police in performing its

functions and called for a regular meeting of the police and the diplomats

to enable them to identify areas of common interests. The representatives

of the diplomatic corps were at the Inspector General's office at the

invitation of the police boss. The Inspector General and the diplomats

later went into a close-door session. [Text] [Lagos DAILY TIMES in

English 26 Nov 86 p 9] /13046

51
INFORMATION MINISTER ON BULGARIAN TIES—Information and Culture Minister,

Mr. Tony Momoh on Monday in Lagos called for stronger ties between Nigeria

and the peoples Republic of Bulgaria to sustain their existing bilateral

relations. In a speech at the opening of a week-long Bulgarian photographic

and film exhibition, he said that the event was another milestone in the

"very cordial bilateral relations between the two countries". He said that

he was proud that his ministry was "an active participant in the implementation of many programmes in these bilateral relations." [Text] [Lagos

DAILY TIMES in English 10 Dec 86 p 3] /13046

NEW GUIDELINES TO BOOST EXPORT—The Federal Government has formulated new

economic guidelines aimed at making Nigeria an export-oriented nation. The

new strategy is known as "Micro-economic frame work" This was announced

yesterday in Lagos, by the Minister of National Planning, Dr. Kalu Idika

Kalu, at a conference organised by the Faculty of Social Sciences, University

of Lagos. Dr. Kalu explained that the sharp fall in oil prices in the first

quarter of this year increased the urg- [source illegible] reform. [Source

illegible] places emphasis on reducing the size of the public sector to

improve its efficiency. There would also be removements towards a more

market-oriented financial policy to facilitate savings and encourage more of

efficient allocation of financial resources, the minister further explained.

In pursuance of the programme, the minister stressed that the government

would rely on private initiative and profit motive. In this direction, the

government plans to rationalize and privatize a number of enterprises. [Text]

[Lagos DAILY TIMES in English 9 Dec 86 p 1] /13046

JOURNALISTS IN MOSCOW—Three Nigerian journalists arrived in Moscow on

Wednesday to attend a three-month advance course in journalism and international relations, the Moscow correspondent of the News Agency of Nigeria

(NAN) reports. The course, the first of its kind, is organised by Soviet

media agencies to help journalists from developing countries acquire new

experience in the profession. The three journalists, Messrs Abdullah!

Adamu (NAN), Joe Abiola (Sketch) Laleh Ibrahim (NTA), will be joining

professional colleagues from Tanzania, Ghana, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and SWAPO

for the course. Two other Nigerian journalists are being expected. [Text]

[Enugu DAILY STAR in English 6 Dec 86 p 7] /13046

SOVIET CULTURAL AGREEMENT—Lagos, 16 Dec (NAN)—Nigeria's Information

and Culture Minister Tony Momoh Monday re-affirmed Nigeria's commitment

to the strengthening of the cordial relations with the Soviet Union.

Signing a formal agreement for cultural and educational cooperation

between the two countries in Lagos, Mr Momoh said the ceremony marked

another milestone in "the ever growing friendship and understanding

between Nigeria and the USSR." The cultural linkage, he said, draws its

strength from the basic cultural and educational agreement formalised

in 1970. [Text] [Belgrade TANJUG in English 1529 GMT 16 Dec 86] /9604

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52
SIERRA LEONE

ENERGY, FUEL SHORTAGES REMAIN KEY PROBLEMS

London AFRICAN CONCORD in English 20 Nov 86 p 16

[Article by Samadu Sesay and Feyi Ogunade]

[ Text] 'IJör the past five years frequent power

JP: cuts have hit Sierre Leone so badly that

many manufacturing industries are grinding • to a halt: "We have* had on» week's

supply of electricity, in the last three

months and we can't goi on-like this/' one

worried manufacturer to\d African Concord.'

President Joseph Momoh,. in his inaugural speech earlier, this year, promised

speedy action to. solve the energy crisis.

But the,situationfhas got worse because of

a, Lackof.foreign exchange ta import fuel;

Inefficient management and corruption at

the. National PoWer Authority has- not

helped;. : '■■;•"

\: The weekly tabloid,' Weekend Spark,

recently carried a cartoon showing NPA:

officials rolling drums of fuel oil away

while local people suffered from blackouts

;and rotten food* And. in an. editorial the

Newshaftnewspaper called for, an immediate enquiry into the alleged fuel thefts. The

NPA general; manager was subsequently -

sacked;

•i The fuel shortage has contributed to the

. country's rocketing inflation. Transport

!costs have more than quadrupled in the last

six months, affecting prices of other goods

and services. The recent IMF-pressured

floating of the Leone has simply made a

bad situation worse. Petrol, which was

- selling at Le7:00 a gallon six months ago

now sells at Le35.00 and up to LelOO.OO on

the black market. But high fuel prices have

:not reduced the length of the queues at

petrol, stations. If anything, the queues

have become longer.

, Though official statistics about energy

consumption are not reliable, the Ministry

of Energy and Power estimates that the

national energy requirement is 137 million

metric tons ofcoal equivalent annually. At

the moment, this is satisfied mostly by

imported crude oil and fuel wood

(firewood and charcoal), with fuel wood

contributing over 70 per cent. But the

steady depletion of the surrounding

forests, especially in the western area

threatens the local ecology and wildlife;

Re-afforestatiort measures are slow to be

enforced and a serious firewood scarcity is

now imminent. • ' • -

, Recently though; the United Nations

financed a "fuelwood amelioration* project" for the western areas planting 500

hectares of fuetwood plantations..

r A major development in government

efforts tö tackle the energy crisis has been

the launching of the low-fuel coal pot

designed to consume a minimum' amount

of firewood arid charcoal. This collaborative project between Njala University College and French technical cö-operation has

resulted in the coal pot becoming 50 per

cent more fuel efficient.

The Government is also seeking alternative sources of energy. Bio-gas technology,

which, involves transforming agricultural

waste to fuel gas and fertiliser is slowly

being tested in rural-areas. The German

Government, the United Methodist

Church and Plan International have developed many of these projects. "I consider a bio-gas system as the primary prerequisite for an integrated agricultural system, especially with more funding from

government," says Sullay Kamara, an

energy consultant. .'•'..

53
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Private organisations and institutions

have chipped in with research into the use

of photovoltaic-powered villages for radiotelephone systems and the high cost organic waste recycling systems. Meanwhile

the government forges on with its expensive, hydro-electric projects. Such persistence recently paid off with the commissioning of the Chinese-built Goma HydroElectric Station at Goma about 250 miles

east of Freetown. The station will provide

constant electricity supply to the eastern

capital, Kenema and eight other towns. A

transmission line is under construction to

take the hydro-electric power to the

southern capital of Bo. President Momoh

predicted that more hydro-electric projects/

would spread all over the. country to

"eventually develop the national economy

and greatly improve living conditions generally."

But the larger Bumbuna Hydro-Electric

Project has suffered one setback after

another. Already US$40 million has been

spent and more funds are urgently being

sought to complete the. scheme which

experts say, should be able to supply the

whole country. But the Italian-financed

project continues to be. plagued with

. shoddy workmanship and mismanagement. '...-.

54
UGANDA

BRIEFS

300 KENYANS EXPELLED—More than 300 Kenyans have been expelled from Uganda

in the past few days following a round-up of illegal immigrants. Taken

hastily to the Busa border post, they apparently were not even given time

to take their possessions with them. In mid-September the Kenyan authorities arrested some 600 Ugandans in the town of Kisumu, some of whom were

sent back across the border. Relations between Nairobi and Kampala seem to

be tinged with suspicion in spite of official denials since the visit to

Uganda of Libyan leader Muammar Kadhafi, which greatly displeased the Kenyan

government. [Text] [Paris INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER in English 13 Dec 86

p 2] /9317

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55
ZIMBABWE

DISPLACED MOZAMBICANS SUCCEED IN FARMING

Harare THE SUNDAY MAIL in English 28 Dec 86 p 5

[Article by Elliot Chiriseri]

[Text] MOZAMBICAN displaced person* living

la Tongogara Camp to the Save Valley

area of Mantealand are oadertaldng some

very successful vegetable growing venture».

This was revealed to Ike Sunday Hall

by the Harare office of the Lutheran

World Federation, a Christian donor

agency which baa been giving agricultural inputs and technical support to the

'displaced persons to the camp.

The agency's bead of department to»

agriculture, water and co-operative development, Ode Munetsi Pswarayi, said vegetable growing to the camp has been

successful to the extent that the residents had more than six months' supply

of vegetables to addition to growing

green maize and wheat.

Cde Pswarayi said: "It's a joy to work

with them. They are doing a marvellous

Job, and we've had no problem« with

them,"

The agency sent to its first represesentattve to the camp in December last

year. "When we got there, we started by

having meetings with the camp administration officials. .

"Next we talked to the displaced persons themselves, to And out their needs,

hopes and aspirations," The agency personnel wanted to specifically find out

what type of agriculture the displaced

persons practised to their home country

and the crops they grew.

The response from the displaced persons suggested that one immediate need,

was that of vegetables.

- The displaced persona were then train»

ed In irrigation canal construction. Oxfam

US, gave them training in casting blocks t

used in the canal construction. The 1Mtheran World Federation's project to as-

/13046

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sist the displaced people in vegetable

growing started with a 30 ha plot of land

under irrigation.

The LWF helped organise the displaced

people into agricultural committees "We

have adopted the master-farmer concept,",

said Cde Pswarayi. This Is in the form

of selecting a few Mozambicans, develop

their leadership skills ana then train then» ■■

in farming using the Agrltex synabus.

These Mozamblcan "master farmers"

have • demonstration plots where they impart the knowledge they have gained from

training to their own people with back-up

from the LWF,

Tongogara is the biggest camp for displaced Mozambteans to Zimbabwe with

nearly 15000 Inmates. Ode Pswarayi emphasised that: "We are trying to develop

a system where the place is self-reliant to

food."

He said the agency is planning to

Introduce cattle to the camp so that the

Mozambicans are trained to cattle management practices, such a* managing

grazing, dipping, etc

Some selected Mozambtcang from the

same camp have received instruction at

the Institute of Agricultural Engineering

in Harare in such things as maintaining

tractors and servicing other fanning Implements.

Asked whether the LWF Is going

to stay indefinitely in the camp assisting

Mozambicans, Cde Pswarayi said: "We

cannot guarantee an indefinite flow of resources from our side." During tbe past

year the LWF spent about US$150000 at

Tongogara and other camps. _

Tbe World Food Programme provMes

' food to the camp and other camps elsewhere. Other donor agencies are also carrying several programmes concerned with

assisting refugees in other camps where

displaced people are housed.

56
ZIMBABWE

FERTILIZER EXPORT ORDER FOR ZAMBIA UNDER WAY

Harare THE HERALD in English 29 Dec 86 p 5

[Text]

ZIMBABWE is exporting 82,5 million worth

of fertiliser to Zambia

for that country'» tobacco crt»ii.

The Zamabians asked for

an urgent supply of 4 000

tonnes of Compound C and

2 000 tonnes of Compound

V which, are in short supply. The fertiliser will be

supplied jointly by Zimbabwe Fertiliser Company

and Windmill.

The contract was negotiatad between ZFC and a

procurement. team from

Zambia's Namboard led

toy Major General Charies

Nyirenda, Namboard,

Zambia's National Agricultural Marketing Board,

is a iparastatal similar to

Zimbabwe's Grain Marketing Board, "but with additional responsibilities such

as the procurement of

fertiliser.

A spokesman for the

ZPC, Cde Bobby Hunda,

said that the ZFC was

pleased to help a friendly

neighbour in a crisis and

hoped that the fertiliser

would be in time for Zambia's tobacco crop.

Cde Hunda. who is the

plant superintendent at

ZFC's Aspindale factory,

said that his company

would co-ordinate the

dispatch of the order and

anticipated doing so without any problems. He said

with his company's booking system, each truck

' would be allocated a loading time based on an estimated time of arrival in

Harare as it will ensure

that the transport opera-

, tors will not be delayed.

The first load of fertiliser left Aspindale last

Monday. The project was

funded by Norad, the Norwegian aid organisation.

/13046

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57
BUSINESSMEN FIND ZAIRE DIFFICULT MARKET

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 12 Dec 86 p 31

ZIMBABWE

[Text] ZIMBABWEAN exporters are"

trying to overcome the main obstacles preventing a /smooth

penetration of the Zairean market which has been described as

'"unsophisticated". Businessmen

contacted by the Gazette this week

reported that progress was being

made, although it was a long and

slow process.

A report for the ZNCC by Imani

Development in April this year noted that lack of knowledge and

awareness of Zimbabwe's supply

capabilities was complicating efforts

to penetrate the market. In addition,

other problems such as poor trans-'

port and communication links and

language barriers, were cited as

"the most problematic obstacles to <

a substantial increase in exports to'

Zaire." - i

The general manager (sales and

marketing) ofTrinidad Asphalt, Mr

LF van de Kaars, said that the company had ''various'* orders from,

businessmen in the Shaba province,

of which five are pending worth

about $80 000. Additional orders

were being negotiated with one of

the biggest mining companies, and

the electricity commission of that

province.

The main problem, Mr van de

Kaars told the Gazette, was communication lines between Zimbabwe

and Zaire. He said it was a "chicken and egg situation, because you

have to travel very regularly (to

Zaire) and be around at that magic

moment when businessmen are allocated foreign corrency and start

giving orders to suppliers," he said.

TRANSLATIONS

A company spokesman for

Agricor, suppliers of agrochemicals and stockfeeds, said that

his company has had some substantial orders, especially for dog feed.

The language barrier was, however,

restricting effective communication

to the extent that even things such

as proforma invoices had to be

translated from French into English. • Asked if his company had considered appointing an agent in Zaire

to handle business transactions, the

spokesman said that the idea has

been mooted, "but the whole group

is going through a restructuring exercise to accommodate a different

style of export marketing."

Agricultural equipment suppliers,

Zimbabwe Farm Equipment, has

been doing business with Zaire for

the past 15 years, and the firm already has an agent, Sodimat SPRL.

Business at the moment, a spokesman said, was lax, but it picks up

periodically.

The managing director of Optimus Zimbabwe, manufacturers of

paraffin lamps and cookers, Mr H

Ellen, told the Gazette that although

his company has managed to gain

a foothold in the Shaba market,

there was competition from South

African suppliers.

"I don't agree that language is a

major problem. The problem is

competition from South Africa

whose suppliers have flooded the

Zairean market with their goods.

The goods are cheaper and this is

,-helped even more by the low rand.

"It is very difficult to counter this

and the only possible solution is to

try to compete with South African

suppliers in terms of price, quality

and efficient delivery times," said

Mr Ellen.

/13046

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58
ZIMBABWE

MATABELELAND NORTH DESCRIBED AS ZANU-PF'S 'PROBLEM CHILD'

Gweru MOTO in English No 50 [no date] p 3

[Text]

IN 1982, the ZANU-PF leader, Prime

Minister Robert Mugabe, described Matabeleland North Province as "the party's

problem child".

The situation has not changed much after

four years of organising and reorganising

the party in the province, and the problem

is still the same struggle for leadership.

The latest squabble erupted when seven

partycdistricts-from Bulawayo alone passed

a vote of no confidence in the provincial

leadership of ZANU-PF Matabeleland

North Province and serita petition to the

Politbüro castigating the leadership for disintegrating the party in the area.

The petition accused some of the leaders

of not being interested 4h-working for the

party or inthe party itself; of not being sure

of the party's policies, and of being elected

into office before1they had become

-members of the partyThe only person exonerated in the scathing attack was the* provincial party leader,

Callistus Ndlovu, but this was not for long.

Things -were sparked off by'Ndlovu's

sacking of the party's provincial publicity

•and information officer, Jpsiah Chidyamar

kono on October 4, two weeks after the

revelation of the existence of the petition.

Chidyamakono was suspended for alleged antUparty activities, which he has since

refuted, the following day three district officials form Luveve were «rrested on the

orders of Callistus Ndlovu because they had

allegedly demonstrated against the incited

party members to boycott a party meeting

in Luveve. It turned out one-of the people

arrested had been out of town that weekend. After this incident, the cat was let out

»of the bag. .

The districts decided"to tellit as it was".

-They accused Ndlovu Of trying to run the

party as a one-inan affair and of organising

the party on tribal lines.

They also scoffed at the charge by

Ndlovu that the vote of ho confidence was

thework of a clique representing a "miserable minority",, and accused Ndlovu of

being arrogant when dealing with party

members.

Although the Luveve party officials were

released a day later without any charges

being put against them, the debate began to

take a sour turn, which is likely to put the

party back to where it was around 1982.

Although Ndlovu's reign as chairman has

been the longest so far in the province, this

should not be construed to mean that things

had dramatically changed within the province.

In fact, there can only be two explana- -

tions. When Ndlovu was elected chairman

of the province in July 1984, only three

months after leaving PF-ZAPU, there was

no time for squabbles because everyone

wanted unity to prevail as the party's

historic second congress was only months

away.

After the congress, everyone was busy

preparing for the general elections which initially should have taken place in March but

were postponed to June and July.

The blow came with the election results.

ZANU-PF, failed to win a single seat in

Matabeleland. This was a shock to everyone because during the campaign, people —

and probably the party's central committee,

had been led to believe that ZANU-PF

-would win atleast five of the 10 seats in the

two provinces. " •-

59
According to the petition by the Bulawayo districts, things* seem to have .been

aggravated by the fact that the provincial

leadership never called a meeting to discuss

• why the party had lost so dismally.

This led to the accusations that the

leadership was not interested in the party

but in their own interests.

, Although there were tribal implications,

as has been the case since the party was

established in Matabeleland, these iare

usually used by people who -will 'ultimately

gain<out of them.

According to sources, the people who

werej>eihg asked to leave the provincial

leadership are both Shona and Ndebele and

these included all officials who appeared or

are to appear in court for one misdeameanor or another.

The other argument seems to be that in

their quest to balance tribally the number of

people holding top posts in the province,

the leaders are not following the party

policy or promoting one from the cell,

branch, district and then province.

For die-hard party supporters, the election of Callistus Ndlovu from nowhere to

provincial chairman was enough. If other

Ndebele had to attain high posts, they had

togo through normal channels.

CSO: 3400/729

/9317

While it is logical that since the Ndebele

are the majority in Matabeleland the leadership of the party should therefore be Ndebele, the plain truth is that most of the Ndebele speaking people still belong to PF-

-ZAPU. Putting a Ndebele person in charge

does not lure more members.

A Herbert Ushewokunze, considered to be

one of the toughest politicians within the

party, was in 1982 forced to leave the post

of chairmanship after sue months. Perhaps

what he said is still true today.

In his letter of resignation, he said "Time

has come fofvihe to relinquish my duties

and id thank all the Matabeleland ZANUPF members and supporters for the.confidence they showed me by asking me to

lead them during a period of rehabilitation

from the effects ipf reactionary pressures

which had-been brought to bear on them.

'"These pressures are now upon me and

the prize appears to be my skull. I shall,

therefore, bow out ofthe ZANU-PF leadership- in Matabeleland North to assuage the

blood thirst-of those climbing all over me

for the leadership."

With the unity talks reported to be at an

advanced stage, perhaps it is only a united

;party-that will solve the problems of Matabeleland, ' otherwise, as Prime Minister

Robert Mugabe said in 1982, there will

always** "lost children" in the region. O

60
ZIMBABWE

TELECOMMUNICATIONS LINKS FOR EASTERN RAIL SYSTEM

Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 12 Dec 86 p 7

[Text] THE GENERAL manager ofthe

NRZ, Mr J R Avery, and Mr Otto

Meljer, sales manager (Africa) of

NKF Kabel BV of the Netherlands, recently signed a contract

for the provision of optical fibre

telecommunication links on the

.Harare to Mutare section of the

railway system.

The agreement also includes four

local telecommunication links in the

Bulawayo area to interconnect the

recently acquired NRZ modern digital telephone exchanges in that

locality.

The contract, worth $3,2 million,

is being funded by the Netherlands

government under a loan agreement

with the Zimbabwe Government. .

According to an NRZ spokes-1

woman, the optical fibre cable installation between Harare and Mutare will be strung on the existing

NRZ open wire telephone route

which runs alongside the railway

line for a total distance of 269km,

making this the longest such link in

Zimbabwe and the first railway optical fibre project in Africa.

"This communication link is expected to provide the Harare to Mu^

tare section of the railway system

with a reliable,, high capacity

telecommunication link which is of

significant importance at this time

when the Beira Corridor proposals

have assumed prominence," the

spokeswoman said..

*'The fibre optic cable systems,

which are immune to'interference

from 25 KV ac railway electrification, will provide a sound foundation for the day-to-day communication requirement within the NRZ

Bulawayo establishments and the

Harare to Mutare section, and will

contribute greatly to the upgrading:

of the NRZ data communication

systems for high speed data transmission networks in keeping with

current requirements on NRZ."

NKF Kabek BV is represented

in Zimbabwe by Continental Cables

(Pvt) Ltd of Harare.

/13046

CSO: 3400/722

61
ZIMBABWE

BRIEFS

DEFENSE WORKERS GIVE TO CORRIDOR FUND--Workers in the Ministry of Defence

have joined other Zimbabweans in donating money for the welfare of defence

force troops guarding the Beira Corridor in Mozambique. The deputy secretary

for defence (finance) in the ministry, Cde Charles Kuwaza, presented MajorGeneral Jevan Maseko with $533,21 for the defence forces welfare fund, during

the ministry's staff Christmas party. Cde Kuwaza, who was standing in for

secretary for defence, Cde James Chitauro, said the minsitry had collected

the money "for the boys in the bush in Mozambique" in just two days. MajorGeneral Maseko said he thanked them on behalf of the army commander, the

army as a whole and the air force "as we are all involved in Mozambique."—

Ziana. [Text] [Harare THE HERALD in English 22 Dec 86 p 13] /13046

COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH GABON—Zimbabwe and Gabon yesterday signed two

bilateral agreements which will pave the way for a joint commission on trade,

economic, technical and scientific co-operation between the two countries.

The Minister of Finance, Economic Planning and Development, Cde Bernard

Chidzero signed for Zimbabwe while the representative of the Gabonese

President, Mr Ben Ali Bongo, signed for Gabon. Cde Chidzero said the signing

of the two agreements paved the way for the setting up of a joint trade,

economic, technical and scientific co-operation between Zimbabwe and Gabon.

He hoped for an increase in the volume of trade between the two countries.

This was the first government to government formal agreement signed between

Zimbabwe and Gabon. "The other areas of cooperation contemplated are mining,

industry, agriculture, energy, fisheries and wildlife," Cde Chidzero said.

Drafts on air services and culture have already been exchanged between

Zimbabwe and Gabon. Mr. Bongo said the signing heralded the expansion of

bilateral relations between the two countries, adding that Gabon stood behind

Zimbabwe in the face of threats by racist South Africa. [Text] [Harare

THE HERALD in English 20 Dec 86 p 9] /13046

PAKISTANI SCHOLARSHIPS—The Pakistani ambassador to Zimbabwe, Mr Tayyab

Siddiqui, this week announced plans by his country to offer nearly 1 000

scholarships in the economic, financial and technical sectors to Zimbabwe

and other frontline states. Speaking at the Institute of Marketing

Management's annual dinner in Harare, Mr Siddiqui said that the scholarships

are part of Pakistan's five-year programme for technical assistance to

African countries. The programme includes 650 scholarships for training in

banking, railways, airlines, administration; 100 for training in agriculture,

62
agriculture, veterinary science, business management and commerce; 125 for

medicine, pharmacy and engineering; and 50 senior fellowships for specialised

training in agricultural research and related subjects. The modalities of

the programme are still being worked out, Mr Siddiqui said, but if envisages

"liberal economic assistance" for the frontline states, against an

"unhealthy and undesirable economic dependence on South Africa". Towards

this end, "pragmatic economic strategies" are required, said Mr Siddiqui.

[Text] [Harare THE FINANCIAL GAZETTE in English 19 Dec 86 p 5] /13046

CSO: 3400/722

63
SOUTH AFRICA

JUSTICE MINISTER GIVES GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON DETAINEES, MANDELA

Cape Town LEADERSHIP in English Vol 5, No 6,1986 pp 32, 34, 35

[Interview with Minister of Justice Kobie Coetsee by Martin Schneider; date

and place not given]

[Text]

Courteous to diepointthat he appears put out if

you decline repeated offers to dip into his toffee

bowl, HJ "Kobie" Coetseeseems outof place in the

NationalParty's cabinet. He isperhapsthe quietest

man to hold down ajob which has traditionallypropelledincumbentsinto thehighestranks of

theparty-oratleastmade them controversial figures. Hispredecessors werehouseholdnames, revered by white nationalists andfeared by black

nationalists.

They were men like C R Swart who became

SouthAfrica'sfirstStatePresident, and John Vorster, who destroyed opposition in the Sixties and

becamesuchadominantfigureinhisportfoliothat

theparty caucus electedhimprimeministerthough

he was only 13th in rank of cabinet seniority.

Another, though less illustrious, predecessor, J T

"Jimmy " Kruger, lefthis mark with hisinfamous

statementthatthe death in police custody ofblack

consciousnessleader SteveBiko, "leavesmecold".

Certainly, the Justiceportfolio, which also includesresponsibility forPrisons, haschangedover

the years. Ithas been stripped ofits responsibility

forPolice, which nowfalls underthe Ministry of

Law and Order, the key department in governmentsimplementation ofthe State ofEmergency.

Coetsee seems, by nature, to prefer to stay in the

background, an even more anomolous position

when you considerhe is also theNationalParly's

FreeState leader.

Coetseeisanattorneywhotakesprideinhiscontribution to such developments as Small Claims

Courts. More recently, heaskedtheLaw Commission to investigate thefeasibility ofintroducing a

bill ofrights which, as this interview reveals, he

envisages as a mechanism toprotectgroup, rather

than individual, rights.

In areas wherehisportfolio involves more controversialissues - court access to the thousands of

detainees held underthe State ofEmergency, and

the future of jailedANCleaderNelson Mandela -

Coetsee provides interesting insights into government thinking. He was interviewed by Martin

Schneider.

Schneider: What do youunderstandby the

term "justice"?

Coetsee: My concept ofjustice is the same as

that the world over. Justice is a system of

norms and standards acceptable to men in

civilised and organised societies. It must be

dispensed by an independentjudiciary

according to those norms and standards. It

means, for example, that all citizens are equal

before the law; that every citizen has equal

access to the courts.

Does such a system existinour country?

I feel that we have a system ofjustice in our

country that rightfully entitles us to be part of

the Western world's sense ofjustice.

How do youreconcile that beliefwith, for

example, our systems ofdetention without

trial andbanning?

64
I'm very pleased thatyou asked me that question because even those affected by the current State ofEmergency, even those affected

by the internal security laws, even those

affected by any other law in terms ofwhich

freedom is curbed, are entitled to be dealt

with according to certain rules ofcommonjustice, of naturaljustice.

That means they may not be assaulted,

they may not be ill-treated, they must be

dealt with according to laid down rules and

regulations and the people who are in power

must follow those rules. This means that

detainees may seek the assistance ofour

courts, as in every other country, ifthese

rules are not followed by those in power.

This is very well demonstrated by continuous applications to ourcourts in recenttimes

in which the validity of even State of

Emergency regulations, or at least some of

them, were contested.

However, a detainee may be held for exceptionally long periods, and even indefinitely,

without a charge being putto him in open

court.

No, that isn't correct. Even underthe State

ofEmergency, a large numberofapplications

to the courts have been made applying forthe

release ofpeople and some have been successful. This shows that people have access

to the courts.

Butthe normalrules of

"charge orrelease"

within a reasonable

time do not apply in our

security legislation.

Yes, butthey have access, they have access

according to the peculiar

rules that apply to their

situation. A person arrested for a common law offence, doesn' t

have access by simply phoning a judge to

come and hear his case.

But he knowsthatwithinastipulatedperiod

he will be chargedor released.

Butthe factis that in a peculiar manner, or in

a manner peculiar to theirsituation, security

detainees do have access to the courts. People

have successfully applied for their release.

Whatis more, the names ofdetainees must

be published after certain periods. In other

words, theycan'tjustvanish. There are

checks and balances built into the system. I

maintain that people have access to ourcourts

as a general rule. Ifthey are detained in terms

ofsecurity legislation, or under the State of

Emergency, there are certain prohibitions, I

concede thatimmediately, but as a general

rule, people have access to ourcourts. I am

sure you are not going to argue thatthe State

ofEmergency is the general'rule, or thatthe

numberofpeople being detained underthe

Emergency represents the general rule.

We have hada State ofEmergency virtually

for this whole year, andsince the Sixties we

have had a security system basedondetention withouttrial andbanning.

These exceptions are acceptable and they are

part ofothersystems as well. The Israelis

have a similarsituation, the British have had

it. They've changed it from rime to time. In

India you have it. Another point which is too

often overlooked is thatwe are making every

effortto extend access to the courts. I think

the development ofSmall Claims Courts is a

vastsuccess. The system is very popular and

itshows thatwe are making it possible for

every citizen to have his day in court. This

supports my view that although we may have

exceptions, the rule is that people must have

access to our courts.

How many people are being heldunderthe

State ofEmergency?

Well, a couple ofthousand.

Do you mean2 000?

No, it could be more.

Some analysts have putthe figure as high

as 20 000. Isthat correct?

No, it varies. It's a flexible figure. No, it's not

20 000.

You couldn't be more precise?

No, it's a flexible figure. It varies from 6 000

to 7 000 plus.

Will these people be charged orreleased?

Nocharge will be put to them unless, after

investigation, it is proved thatthey committed an offence.

65
Isthis processtaking place?

In many cases, detention is in the nature of

preventive detention. Let me explain the

philosophy behind this. In any country where

you have a situation ofreform, where the

country is in transition, then it's possible that

a government may have to make inroads into

the liberties ofindividuals in order to ensure

the success ofreform. But I think another

important point is that people we are detaining aren't necessarily simply legitimate community leaders.

We have had plenty of evidence that we

are dealing with criminals who are using the

political unrestfor theirown ends. In fact, one

person who was recently sentenced in connection with a necklace murder was a

hardened criminal with a long list of previous

convictions for common law offences.

One ofthe problems with a state of

emergency isthat restrictions are imposed

on the flow ofinformation and on accessto

certain parts ofthe country. People don't

really know whatis happening. For example, one hearsstories ofsecurity force excesses and that culprits aredealtwith mainly

through departmental or "internal" trials.

Isthattrue?

No. We've had some trials in the Eastern Province where allegations were properly investigated by the Attorney General himself, and

there was a conviction very recently. Previously, ofcourse, we've seen prosecutions of

policemen who committed offences which

were not permissable in terms oftheir code

ofconduct. Regarding the question ofinternal trials, these are normal in police forces and

otherservices everywhere.

Even if a case goes to court, there is always

an internal hearing particularly in cases where

there is no clear criminal offence and where

administrative, disciplinary proceedings are

required. We also have to deal with black-onblack violence, violence by black thugs on

honourable black citizens. And here again,

doing an excellentjob as protectors ofthe

peace, the security forces have to act according to particular rules and regulations, otherwise there may be prosecutions. I give the

assurance that when offences come to the

notice of any prosecuting officer, he will

prosecute ifcodes ofconduct are broken.

Asthe Ministerresponsible for prisons, you

have in your charge the African National

Congressleader, Nelson Mandela. Have

you ever met him and, ifso, whatwasthe

purpose ofyourmeeting?

Yes, I have met him, butthe nature ofour

meeting is confidential.

Why did you meet him?

I have a function as the Minister responsible

for prisons to relate to any prisoner in cases

where circumstances dictate such contact.

But I must emphasise thatthe nature ofsuch

contactis confidential.

What was yourimpression ofhim?

As you are well aware, the State Presidentis

on record as saying that Mr Mandela can secure his release by publicly abandoning violence as a means to bring about change. He

has also stated that he is prepared to talk to

the ANC provided it forswears violence. I

cannot comment on Mr Mandela's response

to the State President's statement. All I say is

that my impression ofMr Mandela is that itis

most unfair to him that he remains incarcerated by his own people through their pursuit

ofviolence and that they expect him to remain in prison because they do not wish to

give up violence themselves. He is carrying

this burden in an admirable manner.

Are you implying that Mandela has made

an undertaking which satisfiesthe conditionsfor hisrelease, butthat he remainsin

jail because the ANC continues with its

programme ofviolence?

No. I am not implying anything. As a matter

offact it is well known that Mr Mandela himselfhas not as yet metthe State President's

conditions ofrelease, butit is equally well

known that the ANC has purported to reply

on Mr Mandela's behalfnegatively, well in

advance ofhis own decision.

What are your views on the ANC?

It originated as a movementstrongly motivated by nationalism, but I think it is now experiencing a crisis ofidentity. I think that the

ANC's communist wing underJoe Slovo is

planning a take over at the right moment,

66
using the ANC as a front because ofits appeal

as a nationalist movement. They are using

nationalism because it has a strong appeal and

I don'tthink the ANC itselfrealises what is

happening. As far as government is concerned, the State President has indicated that

ifthe ANC renounces violence and commits

itselfto participating peacefully in the internal political process, then, ofcourse, the

world is wide open again.

Whatis yourresponse

to the argumentthatthe

ANC is simply meeting

violencewith violence

because the governmentitselfusesviolence

-political and physical

force -to implementits

policies and to stay in

power?

Well, the Irish argue thatthey are legitimately

opposing the British because the British are

using violence against the Irish people. But

the British retaliate by saying it is legalised

violence, legalised by Parliament, by statute

ofParliament, and thatwhatever the Irish terrorists do is unconstitutional. We are a recognised government, we are in power. Parliament has legislated, and I don'tthink anyone

is going to argue that we must tolerate incidents like, for example, the Amanzimtoti

bomb blast.

When militant people set their targets on

destroying law and order, then the State is

entitled to take such measures as it sees fit to

protectthe public. The militants are using

illegitimate, illegal means of attaining their

objectives and therefore their motivation, no

matter how honourable it may be, must be

opposed. Whatever has stood in the way of

negotiation in the past has been removed. We

have entered a period ofreform; we have expressed the willingness to negotiate peacefully. I think we should be taken at our word

because so many other blacks have

negotiated with us peacefully.

To whom are you referring?

Let'sstart with the independent states of

Transkei, Bophuthatswana and Venda.

They arc selfgoverning and they arc not simply tokens. They are constitutional realities

and citizens who work and live outside those

states look forward to going home. We have

negotiated a political dispensation with these

people and we have established other forms

ofgovernment like community councils. If

you take all those people, and consider those

who are participating in the economy peacefully, those who are living in self-governing

states or who are paying tax or paying allegiance to self-governing or independent

states, they all add up to almost 75% ofthe

original numbers ofblack people when the

National Party came to power. We are dealing

now with the balance. We are tying up the

knots. We arc dealing with the 25%.

The very fact that the militants have set

outto destroy these community councils and

to make the self-governing and independent

states ungovernable, proves thatthey were

obstacles in their way, that they had to avoid

their ultimate success. You can visualise that

ifthese councils were to grow, were to move

on to a further level, it would be very difficult

forthe militants to attain theirobjectives.

That proves that success wasn'tso far offfor

this government.

You recently tooktheunusualstepofasking

the Law Commission to investigate die

feasibility ofdrawing up a bill ofrightsfor

South Africa. Whatis yourmotivation for

this?

I have previously taken the position that a bill

ofrights, in the sense ofprotecting individual

rights, is not necessary in our country. Not

that I don'tsubscribe to the concept ofindividual rights, but because I maintain that our

common law properly protects individual

rights and that a bill ofrights may only tend

to weaken the individual's rights. I have compared it to the situation in the United States

where the objectives ofjustice may be defeated by the individual's rightto be tried by

his peers, by a jury. We have abolished the

jury system in our country, thereby enabling

a person to be tried expeditiously. In the

United States, a trial can be delayed up to six

years or longer by people challenging those

elected to sit on the jury, thereby defeating

the ends ofjustice.

I have also referred to an amendmentto

the US Bill of Rights, entitling any person to

carry a firearm. I am underthe impression that

the I IS is suffering under thatstipulation. In

our country it is not an individual rightto carry

a firearm and at least we can give attention to

the question ofwhether or not an individual

is suited to carry a firearm. The British, on the

other hand, don't have a bill ofrights, and yet

they are very strong on individual rights.

67
Therefore I took up the position that we do

not need, at this stage, a bill ofrights for individuals. Then, ofcourse, we accepted that

our new constitution is largely based on the

concept ofgroups and group interests. It was

built on the fact that we have various minority

groups in this country and, then, delving into

this situation, I discovered that the United

Nations has embarked on very intensive research into the position ofgroups. 1 discovered that there is a world-wide interest in the

protection ofminority groups and their religious, cultural and language rights.

Realising that we were well on our way to

abolishing old systems, and realising that we

were searching for new concepts that would

bind us together and relieve us ofour fear of

numbersin thiscountry, I began toappreciate

that ourcourts could play a meaningful role.

I therefore asked the Law Commission to investigate the possibility of a manifesto of

human rights with special regard to group

rights, the possible extension ofindividual

rights, and the role our courts could play in

this area.

Isthe idea that a bill ofrights protecting

group interests will make it easierforgovernmentto relax, or possibly even repeal,

such laws asthe Group Areas and Population Registration Acts?

We're always building, everycountry is building all the time, preparing for the future. So,

we too are preparing forthe future, and I think

itis actually inevitable that old laws and concepts will come up for review. Government,

ofcourse, hasn't enunciated any policy on this

issue yet because we are still awaiting the report ofthe Law Commission, so I cannot

speak for myself or even for government on

this issue. But I will say it is a reasonable conclusion thatifwe were to have a bill ofrights

codifying group rights, group interests and

individual rights, then we would want to link

these issues.

Ofcourse, we will have to find a balance

between and among group and individual

rights. We'll have to harmonize, I think that's

the word, we'll have to harmonize these rights

with each other. I think it's a reasonable conclusion thatin every other country which

drew up a bill ofrights, the need forsome

other laws fell away. But, I wantto emphasize

that I do notvisualize that a bill ofrights ofthis

nature willjust replace, merely replace, the

old laws. What I can say is thatthe effect will

have to be to create more trust, more confidence among the groups, and will actually involve a situation in which we share whatever

possible while allowing groups to enjoy what

is peculiar to them.

What are your views on the bill ofrights

drawn up asthe basisfor a multiracial governmentfor KwaZulu and Natal?

Well, it does take cognisance oflanguage and

cultural differences, but, in general, its merits

also lie in the fact that it does take cognisance

ofcertain liberties-access to the courts, and

equal treatment before our courts.

How will a bill ofrights operate in a society

in which we have extensive security legislation based largely on detention without

trial?

Well, ofcourse, we're talking now about an

ideal situation. Naturally, oursecurity legislation will have to be considered. It's inevitable because oursecurity laws do make an inroad into civil liberties. But then you're talking ofan ideal situation, you're talking ofa

situation where we visualise having so many

more people sharing common ideals, where

much ofthe security legislation may not be

necessary.

Are there any indicationsthatthe State of

Emergency will be lifted in the nearfuture?

I foresee thatthe Emergency will have to be

maintained as long as the present climate prevails. Wc must make sure this time that we

have peace and order and that our citizens,

black and white, can enjoy protection and

freedom.

CSO: 3400/728

/9317

68
SOUTH AFRICA

BLACK ENROLLMENT IN PRIVATE SCHOOLS INCREASING

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES in English 14 Dec 86 p 5

[Article by Sue Fox Menof and Samkelo Kumalo]

[Text] BLACK students are enrolling in increasing numbers at

private schools throughout South Africa and there's nothing to stand in their way except the fees.

Since October, private schools have been able to admit black, coloured

and Indian pupils at their discretion without fear of running foul of the

education authorities. Previously, permission was necessary.

"The schools themselves now decide on which pupils

to admit,'' said a spokesman for the Department of

Education and Culture in Pretoria.

"They used to have to get permission and there were

certain quotas, but all this has fallen away since the

Sromulgation on October 31 of Regulation R2281, seeon 9 of the Private Schools Act 104 of 1986."

The Association of Private Schools confirmed that

the number of blackstudents being admitted to private

schools was on the increase.

The numbers have increased and we welcome

them," said a spokesman,

"but we don't have statistics

on blacks in private schools

because a number of schools

won't discriminate on

grounds of colour."

This week the Sunday

Times approached several

schools in South Africa to assess the situation.

DKSIKJU College, Johannesburg: "Before school

closed last week we were

dealing with about three applications a day for 1987.

Black applications have increased by more than 150

percent," a spokesman said.

MICMEUHSE, Balgowan,

Natal' "In 1986, out of a total

of 469 students, 18 were

black, nine Indian and two

coloured,",said a spokesman.

'In 1987 the numbers will ]

increase to 28 black, 111

Indian and one coloured, with !

the total intake for 1987 being i

458." • • ■■ •• ■■' ••• - ' .1

ST STITIIM'S College, I

Randburg: A spokesman said: !

"We have had a 500 percent !

increase in.applications by

blacks compared with last : year, and until we closed re- '

cently we were processing

about 50 applications a week

from blacks wishing to attend standards seven to

nine."

Exception i

DAMElll College, Johannesburg: The principal, Dr

Isaac Kriel, said: "Up to and

including this year we had to :

apply to the Transvaal Education Department for permission to accept black,

coloured and Indian students.

"This permission was given in a small number of

cases, but permission was the

exception rather than the

rule.

!

" "The new arrangement allows private schools to accept students as they deem

fit The only restriction is

age. If a student is over 19,

special permission must be

obtained;-—- .

"'Our'total- enrolment for

1986 was 1272, (from Standard Seven to matric), and 19

blacks, coloured» and Indians

obtained permission to attend," Dr Kriel said.

High

IIEDEM School, Johannesburg: A spokeswoman for this

exclusive girls' school said:

"We don't count our students

as black and white. We do

have some black students,

but not that many, as our fees

are high.

"It, is a limited group, but

we have a lot more than we

used to. Some years ago we

had one Indian girl; now we

have quite a few." i

PUITIWI Convent, Jo-!

hannesburg: The principal,

Miss Miss Jaekip Jackie Welch, Woloh said: osi<i. "All «in

Catholic schools have been

accepting black pupils for

more than 10 years. This

year, out of our total of 390

pupils there are 37 black, 20

coloured and 57 Indian children." .• • k %/.

CMfEIT Belgravia, *fohannesburg: A spokeswoman

said there was a 10 percent

increase in applications from

blacks this year. "We can't

give statistics because we

don't accept pupils according

to race, but we can confirm

that more blacks are attend-.

tag our school," she said.

ST HUM'S College, Pretoria: Despite high annual

fees of R8 858 for boarding

and R4 929 for day scholars,

St Albans has had an increase

in black applicants for next

year. "The school is now

full," a spokesman said.

ST MMEW'S College, Grahamstown: "The increase in

black applicants is slighter

higher this year, but not that

much, due to our high

fees and unemployment" a

spokesman said.

"Fees are R8 700 for

boarders and R4 400 for day

scholars, and, although the

school offers assistance in

some cases, most blacks in

the region can't afford the:

school.

69
~:K Sensitive (j

RATEIFill Kamhlabal

School, United World College

of Southern Africa, Swaziland: Headmaster Richard

Eyeington said: "It's a sensitive area. We do have black

South Africans from Soweto,

'. but some had to return home

under threat to their families

thisyear. \

"Fortunately, the students:

and their families sorted out

, the problems with these organisations, which found Waterford perfectly acceptable.

"I'm wary of revealing details, but we have about 45

South Africans, not all black,

but the majority are black.

We have a link with an organisation, Protec, in Johannesburg which is helping to

upgrade black students, particularly in the science and

technical fields, and it sends

us students to be tested.

"We will have about 400

students next year (380 for

1986) representing 40 different nationalities from South

America, Southern Africa,

the rest of Africa, India and

Europe." !

/12828

CSO: 3400/689

70
SOUTH AFRICA

UNIVERSITY HOSTS CONFERENCE ON EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGES

Blacks Doubt Government Sincerity

Johannesburg CITY PRESS in English 14 Dec 86 pp 12, 13

[Article by Dan Dhlamini]

[Text]

THE BLACK community

sees the present education

system as a tool which the

government is using to sub- j

tly sell the reform program i

not acceptable to black

people - and to accept it

was dangerous.

This was the opinion of

Soweto Parents Crisis

Committee spokesman

Siza Molebatsi at the In- :

ternational Conference on >

Educational Challenges in'

Southern Africa in a Christian-Reformational. Per-;

spective.

. The conference was or-:

ganised by Potchefstroom

University's Institute for , Reformational Studies:

Addressing more than

100 participants from

Zambia, Lesotho, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Nether-;

lands, Namibia and some

parts in the Republic, Molebatsi said the only solution to the present education crisis was that progressive white Christians who

have voting rights must

unite and pressurise education and Training Minister

Dr Gerrit Viljoen to sincerely Ulk to the National

Education Crisis Committee.

He said the sincerity of

the government concerning

the volatile education crisis

in black schools was doubted and the aims and objectives of the red tope reform j

plans were suspect.

Responding to a question as to where God featured in the "People's Education", Molebatsi, who is

a Minister of Religion said

"God is with the people,

but Bantu Education was

never meant to bring us

nearer Christ".

He added that the enact-,

!ment of the Bantu Educa-;

tion Act of 1953, whose ,

aim it was to create an

education suitable for!

black people, with a view :

to their envisaged role in

white South Africa of

"baaskap", was seen as the

beginning of the road

which led to the educational explosion of 1976.

In her contribution to

the conference, Zambian

delegate Hilda Phiri

Chibwe, said Zambian

education policy is to attain universal primary education which is nine years

of basis education for all

Zambians at their fully integrated schools.

She said the most burning issues were that a quarter of all students in the

country who enrolled for

grade four, cannot find a

place in grade five - hence

ä high number of dropouts. . - |

' She cited population ex-.

plosion, illiteracy and the

low income of parents as

one of the most burning

issues. She also said there

was a great shortage of

teachers and that religious

education was taught at all

schools in Zambia.

Iron McGregor, a Christian Educationist from

Zimbabwe, said the the

number of secondary

schools have rocketed from

177 in 1979 to more than

1 300 this year with a total

of 4 898 fully-qualified

teachers.

He said the schools were

fully integrated and that

there was a national literacy campaign, run jointly

by/the Education Ministry,

Community Development

Ministry and women's affairs and that it was gaini

ing momentum.

McGregor said the

school population has in- ' creased tremendously;

since the independence - ' despite the government's I

expensive family planning j

program. !

He said Christians can j

play a leading role in the - policy of reconciliation and i

this was the policy often !

emphasised by Zimbab- i

wean government since in-;

!

dependence. • -•«!

"Christian teachers are j

needed and are more than ' welcome in Zimbabwe and i

religious studies is a popu- ,

lar subject in this country," j McGregor said. .j

Asked to comment on

allegations that Zimbabwe ; was ruled by a Marxistinclined government, , McGregor declined to

comment saying this could I

put his position in jeopardy, i

He said he attended the

conference in his capacity

as a Christian and had not

been assigned by his gov71
Yernment! According to thr

. ^conference., organiser«

'Malawi's Institute of Edu

Ration's Dr IC Lamba o

'the Malawian Institute o

'* Education could not attew

*the conference because hi«

government allegedly re

fused him permission f

participate.

There was an interesting

new spirit, in the confer

ence after Potchefstrootr

university Senior Lecture

in Philosophy and Histor

of Education Willi

Postma had delivered hi

paper calling for Christian

parents as educators in th

contemporary . education

situation.

Postma said education

must take place in a suit

able home in which its indi

yiduals can realise its ful ;

potential and that parent

-must stand firm.'in thei

calling for peace, order am

love for others.

. In questioning this state

ment, Prof Jaque--Krit

said it was impossible fo : black people to live

Christian life because they

did not have suitable

houses. The families were

forced to live separately as

migrant labourers live in

hostels and seldom see

their wives and ^children

who are either jiving in

shacks or matchbox

houses. ;'

The audience burst in

laughter when Pretoria

educationist SW Seboni

said it was strange that

''it'

H

>.t

.j

":>l

•J

;>«*.

..?.',

i-j

'\:i

at;':

.1")':

Ml'

II*

\vhite Christians "should'

say that they teach their

children to love and rer

»pect their fellowmen. <&

j He cited a incident

where a small white child

refused to take her mother's instructions to greet

him (Seboni) as "Oom"

and preferred to address

him as "boy".

He challenged the credibility of Christianity in

white families saying that

it was theoretical rather

than practical. Speakers

from Namibia told the conference that the education

system in their area was

bad and that white schools

were empty while there

were classroom shortages

at black schools. They said

whites in Namibia rejected

integration at schools outright and that about. 70%

of the teachers in that area

were not fully qualified. !

Lesotho educationists J

Anderson, Tsepo Mokgethi

and Rev I Mqathazane

said that of the SO 000 children born in a particular

year after independence,

"only 200 managed to go to

university.

. They said unemployment was one of the greatest handicaps in Lesotho

Dutch educationist Dr

CM van den Oeck said the

aim of Dutch education

system was basically to enable a child to manage in a

society in an independent

way.

Conference organiser J

Marais said the resolution

of the conference would

only be made available to

the Press at a later stage.

72
Resolutions of Meeting

Johannesburg CITY PRESS in English 14 Dec 86 p 13

[Article by Dan Dhlamini]

[Text]

THE Institute for Refomational Studies conference

at Potchefstroom University resolved that:

• In the final analysis

apartheid is based on a humanistic philosophy and is;

therefore not "only incom-;

patible with the Christian

faith and with the reformational world view, but is

the outcome of a hardened

heart. . -.'f ■■' "1

• The churches should be i

encouraged on the, one»

hand to call for the abolM

tion of every aspect of

apartheid, but on the other

hand all be helped to un-:

derstand that that alöne j

does not address the real-'

spiritual barreness of the':

country. . • "/' ':\-";|

• The churches should be i

called upon to preach and ?

practice the gospel in such

a way as to address the

whole man in everyday life, i

• Issues like relationships,v

the practice of righteousness, the rejection of the

use of violence, condemnation of oppression, the need

for compassion with one's

neighbours and finally

hope should not be evaded.

• It will call on those

Christians still clinging to

the ünbiblical theology of

apartheid to repent, but

then also on the other

Christians to extend a loving and forgiving hand.

The conference noted

that it is urgent to give

attention to the diversity of

possible doctrinal intepretations of the Kingdom of

God in order to resolve

conflicting views and interrelations of these views.

Attention should be given to distinguish the reformational perspective from

philosophies the identify ;

the Kingdom with, the sta- ,

tus quo or with any other

specific political views.

The conference recommended that:

• The government is urged

.that equal pay be payed for

-equal work for all races

and for both sexes.

This equality will enable

more parents to afford adequate education for their

children. . . .-: \ /

'•The State be called upon

to terminate immediately

the unchristian practice of

detaining individuals, and

especially children. • ',

• The Council of the Potchefstroom University for i

Christian Higher Educa-

. tion provide integrated \

'hostel facilities at the uni- I

versity. ....".."... '.-..-.

• A ministry and a department of education be created to determine national

education policy and which

will serve as a co-ordinate

ing ministry for the region- :

al educational authorities

to be formed on non-racial

lines.

• The policy-making

structure for SA education

as a whole be composed at

the highest level of proportionately elected representatives of the national community.

• The one educational

ministry should allow for

schools which are subsidised by the State but

which are initiated and

governed by the local parents organisations in which

the parents determine the

spirit and the direction of ~

the institution with state

control of standards.

This would allow for

both Christian schools and

the possibility of giving

positive content to "people's education" as well as

satisfying the demands of

relevant, freedom of

choice, affordability and

an acceptable success rate.

• The education department be requested to see to

it that history is taught to

further educational and

not ideological ends by accommodating the history

of all South Africans and

removing emphasis in the

teaching of unavoidable

facts which could be hurtful, offensive and misleading. '

• AH Christians (scholars

and teachers) be urged to

further a true Christian

perspective on South African history.

-.•'• Remaining legal barriers to social contact between' groups be removed

so as to facilitate communication between population groups, especially

among children.

• The process of communication between children

be enhanced by removing

policy barriers to social

contact between schools.

• The IRS send a delegation to Education Minister

Gerrit Viljoen to hear his

views of why negotiations

with the National Education Crisis Committee

failed and to request him

as a matter of urgency to

meet with the organisation

on an open agenda.

• Rev C Molebatsi be requested to accompany the

committee delegated to un-;

dertake this. j

• All teachers and teacher

training institutions foster

education practices in

which young people are

sympathetically guided to

develop critical, thinking

skills and to become committed to an open search

for truth.

The Biblical injunction

of respect for parents and

authority does not justify

authoritarian and penalistic teacher-pupil relationships which inevitably

leads to the inhibition of

the development of critical

abilities of students,

Because of the misunderstanding of Biblical injunction it is essential that

the churches play a leading

role in encouraging the development ofsound critical

thinking.

•Teachers of Bible education or religious instruction

be practising Christians.

• That some contacts be

established on the formal

level through for example

black people teaching the

languages to white children and whites teaching

their languages to black

children.

• The teacher education

curriculum of white teachers make explicit provision

for a greater degree of sensitivation to black experience in South Africa

73
• Technical education

ought to be promoted to

meet the economic needs

of the country more adequately. ;

, ' .;'' ,.. !

• It should request Christian educationists at the

Potchefstroom University

and other educational institutions to study the possibility of developing Christian resource material in - modern technological media such as educational

computer software, video .

and computer games and '

video programs. . .j

• More bursaries be made i

available to black teachers

in the light of the tremendous shortage and that

empty places in white and

Indian teachers' training i

colleges be made available

to black student teachers. I

In view of the over-sup-:

ply of white teachers these

teachers be utilised in !

black schools and that

equal service conditions

and opportunities for pro- ' motions be accorded to all,

• The institute for Reformafional Studies convey

the gratitude of the conference to members of the

teaching staff of the Department of Education and ,

Training who, in these turbulent times have often

had to bear the brunt of the

onslaught.

• The educational structures have to be kept going

as a "life support system

while changes are being effected". .,--.........

]

The time available for

these churches however is

rapidly running out.

• The Potchefstroom University, for example the

Department of Political

Science, should make an

urgent study of the influence of political and economic policies which are

detrimental to the establishment of normal family

life and the way in which

legislation, for example the

Groups Areas Act, has resulted in the prolonged ab-

/12828

CSO: 3400/689

sence of parents from their

families and which have.

materially contributed to

alienation of youths. i

•The private and the pub-1

lie sectors increase efforts

to improve the general living conditions of black people, since the existing situation has in no small measure contributed to the present education impasse.

• That Christian parents

be encouraged to become

involved in school committees and other civic associations and to initiate civic

services such as churches.

• The committee approach white churches to

request them to invite

black Christians to meet in

order to encourage a better

understanding of one another.

This will be a valuable

move in the direction of

removing reciprocal stereotyped prejudices.

In line with the above it

is recommended that

churches should be urged

to initiate special programs

to promote awareness

among white Christians,

concerning black experiences and perception of

the current crisis.

• The IRS study ways in

which active guidance and

practical help can be given

by the church to enable

parents to fulfill their

Christian calling in the

education of their children.

• Prominent church. and

educational leaders who,

are members of secret of

ganisations to reconsider

their positions and their organisations' claim to' a

Christian basis and come

into the open or disband in

the interest of Christian

community.

• The IRS initiate a thorough investigation in Namibia concerning the war

'and the implementation oi

'Resolution 435 of the Se-,

curity Council of the United Nations of 1978 and.

compile a report which is

to be publicised widely so

as to inform the people of

South Africa about the

true situation in the territory, v "".-.

This is an urgent issue

and the investigation must

include all parties involved

— South Africa, the transi-.

tional government, Swapo

and local churches.

• The Faculty of Education of Potchefstroom University compile an urgent

responsible analysis under

the auspices of the IRS of

the problem areas caused

by the system of apartheid

which is a hindrance to

Christian education and

that the practical sugges-;

tions be made to the authorities as to how these

could be resolved.

One such problematic

structural arrangement is

the segregated schooling

system. •...•. :.,•'■■' . .•<,•'

• A study be made from a

Christian perspective of

the implications of a formal, academic nature of a

education system in South

Africa which does hot address the real needs of the

peoples of the country.

• The IRS be requested to'

write a critical evaluation

of the development of the

education policy of the

NECC.

• Inter-disciplinary'specif-,

ic research be undertaken

by the Potchefstroom University to identify areas

where educational changes

can be effected.

: f 'this "sort > of research

should be of a very, practical nature '.and" address'

{>roblems of smaller but no

ess urgent nature.l

:

. '

, .. *v .

•The question of mother

tongue instruction in

school be investigated fully

as there is a diverity of

opinion concerning the desirability of such instructions.

Where the medium of

instruction is a second language special attention

should be given to the ability of both teachers and

children to speak the language adequately.

•The IRS should sponsor

a publication which is to be

publicised widely among

school teachers to motivate

them to become sensitively

involved in efforts to bring

about reconciliation

among various groups.' •

• The IRS be requested to

initiate a study of Christian perspectives on educational change in a context

of conflict and that the results of this study be published.

74
SOUTH AFRICA

CASE STUDY OF GRASSROOTS YOUTH CONFLICT IN SOWETO'S DLAMINI'

"l

Johannesburg THE WEEKLY

[Text] ...... ....

AN electricity box stands in thei

middle of a field in Dlamini 1, staking

out the territory like a hoisted flag.

"One Azania One Nation" has been

spraypainted in red across its surface,

declaring to the world that this is

Azapo country.

But there is pathos in the bold

statement. Azapo (Azanian People's

Organisation) and Azasm (Azanian

Students' Movement), which com-;

mand some not inconsiderable respect

in this neighbourhood, are running

scared in their own playground, after

weeks of bloodletting against their j

members. Their activists have fled

from their homes^ fearing the petrol'

bombs, pangas and guns that have;

been aimed at their colleagues. j

While Sosco (Soweto Students' |

Congress) "comrades" are making:

themselves scarce in Dlamini 1,

Dlamini 2, across the street, has

become virtually off-limits to Azasm

during the past month, and Ibhongo.

High School, across the field, has been

cleared of more than 20 Azasm

students since June.

"Sosco has told us 'if we see you in

school, you had better tell us what size

tyre you wear'," says Brister Kalaote,

19, Azasm's national ac^ministrative

secretary. Kalaote took the necklace

threat seriously and abandoned his

studies at Ibhongo six months ago.

At least four people have been killed

during the past few weeks, in the

murderous tit-for-tat war between

Azasm and the United Democratic

Front-affiliated Sosco and Soyco

(Soweto Youth Congress).

And as such conflicts would have it,

each side insists that its people are the

persecuted.

/L2828

CSO: 3400/689

MAIL in English 12-18 Dec 86

"Street committee members are

being killed by Azapo," says Soyco;

president RapuMolekane. I

Molekane says Azapo and Asazm

attacks on the UDF affiliates have the

tacit approval of the police. "Azapo

people have been using police guns,

suggesting a close relationship

between the two parties. "In most ot

the cases when they attack us, the

police come at the same time.

"When this whole thing started,

people thought it was just a conflict

between individuals. Now we know

we need to defend ourselves against

Azapo: They are on a campaign to'

isolate us, and their only hope is that

this conflict will continue, so that we !

do not spend our energies targeting

the police".

Not so, says Kalaote. He is furious

about what he calls the indifference of

the UDF youth affiliates to the

killings. _ "Sosco is carrying out the work ot

the system," he says, pounding his fist

on his knee. "The only people I expect,

to come attack me in my house is the

system." Even if some of the killings

were the work of government agents

provocateurs, says Kalaote,

"prominent members of an

organisation like Sosco have been seen

carrying out such acts of yiolence. It

looks like an organisational thing to

me.

Kalaote's claims are based on the

kidnapping on November 13 of 14-

year-old Fana Mhlongo, at the home

of George Wauchope, Azapo

executive member,'in Ngqase street,

Dlamini 1. Neighbors say they saw

Fana dragged away by known Sosco

activists.

In fact, Fana had gone to

Wauchope's house with the Azapo

official's nephew, Vuyisele, to clear

- some of the rubble left behind in a

75

11

petrol bomb attack on the house two

nights previously. "They surrounded

George's home and opened fire," said

one witness. "Vuyisele got away, but

Fana was taken."

Three days later, his grandmother

went discreetly looking for him in a

house in Dlamini 2. "A girl outside the

house told me he was there, but I was

too frightened to go inside. I thought I

might be killed," said Leah Mhlongo.

Four days later, after a week's search

of mortuaries and hospitals, Fana's

badly burned body was found by

cleaners at a golf course near

Pimville, with a gaping bullet hole on:

his temple. j

Within two weeks, Mduduze

Dlamini, a Sosco "comrade" from

Dlamini 2, was found dead, having

been shot in the head, forehead and

stomach.

And on November 27, Lala

Mpondzo, the grandmother of two

Azayo (Azanian Youth Organization)

activists, Nkosinathi and Lindani

Ndebele, was shot and killed after

about 50 people surrounded her house

and attacked it

Azapo's acting president, Nkosi

Molala, told the Sowetan after her

death he believed that the old woman

"was summoned to a street committee

meeting on Sunday and told to

produce her two grandsons. On

Wednesday she was again summoned

to a street committee meeting and

given an ultimatum to produce the

two, or else her home would be

. burned the following morning."

After the past month's events,

reconciliation will require concerted

encouragement from both the UDF

and Azapo. At least on ground level,

distrust and vengeance have taken

hold.

"We cannot talk peace with Azapo

now," says Molekane. "It is like

talking peace with Botha."
SOUTH AFRICA

BUSINESS COMMUNITY'S INCONSISTENCY IN NATIONAL POLITICS NOTED

Cape Town LEADERSHIP in English Vol 5, 1986 No 6 pp 28, 30

[Article by Bob Tucker]

[Text]

To the white South African business executive, prospects might indeed seem bleak -

sanctions, labour unrest, high rates of inflation, high rates of tax, general erosion of his

standard of living and weak demand for his

product. He might even contemplate "Packing For Perth".

But how does it look to the black urban

dweller — how many of us have really stopped to contemplate his prospects? I do not

presume to speak on his behalf, because he

should hs'/e the opportunity to do so himself

and because I can never talk from his perspective. However, I make here a sincere attempt

to understand his predicament more deeply.

Forced to live in a location remote from his

place of work and with inadequate infrastructure and high transport costs, he too

faces high rates of inflation, high levels of

unemployment and strikes (which might not

only deprive him of his means of transport,

but may also result in him losing his job).

With a shortage of 500 000 housing units

he clings perilously to the accommodation

which he has, to the intense envy of those

who haven't. He shares that accommodation

with too many others and as a result enjoys

no privacy whatsoever. If he pays the rent,

the accommodation might well be burnt

down (with him inside it) and ifhe doesn't he

fears being evicted anyway. In the meantime, township services deteriorate.

If he is fortunate enough to have a job, he

commutes over long distances to and from

work in overcrowded transport and constantly

exposed to the threat of being mugged. He

does not know whether his children will stay at

home, destroying their future in the process,

or be beaten up for going to school. He is

forced to skulk through his neighbourhood

like a criminal in fear that he might be made to

drink the dishwashing liquid ifcaught with his

purchases.

He is expected to perform to the same

standards as his white counterpart in the

workplace - "because this is an equal opportunity company, you know". He "competes"

in a language other than his mother tongue

and with an education on which Rl was spent

for every R9 or more spent on that ofhis white

counterpart.

He has been told that he may hire premises to start his own business in the Johannesburg CBD at RIO a square metre, but

may not hire premises in any of the small

business districts where he could get premises close to his potential market at R5 a square

metre.

He is the fourth generation of his family

living in the urban area, and has never been

south ofthe Vaal River. Because he happens

to speak Xhosa, he was classified as a Transkeian citizen in 1976 and lost his South African citizenship. Together with 9m other

76
blacks he is now an alien and must comply

with the Aliens Act unless he can prove he

has been permanently resident in the urban

area with his family since 1976. Until he can

prove permanent residence with his family

(and at least 7,5m can't) he remains an alien

and must carry and produce identification

documents on demand. If he doesn't, he is

liable to summary arrest and "deportation"

to a "country" he doesn't acknowledge and

has never lived in.

He knows that historically, other race

groups have been in a similar plight, and

have managed to pull themselves out oftheir

predicament. But those race groups did so by

gaining political control, and by making extensive use of the civil service, the railways

and other State-controlled employers to create

work opportunities for their own people. They

also spent massive sums on upgrading the

educational standards of their younger generation, so that generation would, in turn, be

competitive in commerce and industry in years

to come.

But in South Africa the black man has

been denied access both to political decisionmaking and to public sector job opportunities

which were the very foundation ofthe "bootstraps" exercise which benefitted those other

race groups.

He has been told the amount spent on his

children's education will be increased but

thatthe State can no longer afford to bear the

full cost ofsuch education. Ifthe black man

wants secondary or tertiary education he is

going to have to make a significant contribution to it himself.

His position is indeed desperate in actual

terms. But in perceptual terms it is even

worse. His aspirations have been raised by

promises of "reform", butitis now becoming

clear that the substitution of a vigorously

capitalistic system for racial discrimination

will probably result in the black man's lot remaining the same, or perhaps even deteriorating. It cannot be denied that when a very

large segment of the population has been

prejudiced to the extentthat it has on purely

racial grounds, then the application of an unmoderated free marketsystem is likely to result in the maintenance ofthe status quo. It is

in this context that the business community

of South Africa is forced to contemplate its

role.

There can be little doubtthat to the extent

that economic domination is substituted for

racial discrimination and, as a result, the lot

of the black man remains the same, whitecontrolled business will be perceived to be

the instrument of government in maintaining that status quo.

"That is all very well," one might be

tempted to say, "but unless a vigorous free

market approach is not only adopted, but in

fact encouraged, we will not create the

economic growth and jobs necessary to sustain our population."

Whichever way that argument has been

advanced in the past and will be advanced in

the future, it does not calm the suspicions or

satisfy the aspirations of the working class.

To draw a direct analogy in the labour field,

it is tantamountto an employersaying he has

an equal opportunity programme but is not

prepared to take any affirmative action. In

other words, the job will be awarded regardless ofrace on the merits ofthose competing

for the job. However, 80% of the competitors

for the job have been severely prejudiced in

their ability to compete for it by a deliberately discriminatory economic and educational policy. They have, in addition, been

inhibited in their ability to accumulate capital and have suffered directly from linguistic

and cultural disadvantages, apart from blatant prejudice.

Equal opportunity, whether in the macro

socio-economic environment or in human resource management, is meaningless unless

coupled with an affirmative action programme. Market forces and raw competition must

be moderated to assist positively those

previously prejudiced so that they are finally

able to compete on an equal footing.

Ifthe business community fails to address

this prerequisite, not only will it be seen to

be the instrument ofmaintenance ofthe status

quo, but the work force itself will remain unproductive and inefficient. This will adversely

affect overall economic performance. Moreover, frustration among the majority of the

population will be aggravated by its perception

that it derives no benefit from the system.

Within the business environment, therefore, one may conclude that there is an

77
enormous amount to be done, and which can

be done, to avoid such a catastrophic substitution of economic domination for racial

discrimination. It may fairly be said that

within that sphere the businessman has a

sanction - namely the way in which he conducts his business- and to the extentthat he

has a sanction, he must be regarded as a

force. Itis this sanction which the black communities are entitled to expect us to exercise

in the interests of a brighter future for us all.

If we fail to do so, numbers, apathy and

disenchantment will break the system, ifrevolution doesn't.

But in the purely political environment,

the only real sanction which the business

community has, is to go out ofbusiness- and

that is no sanction at all. Consequently, in

that environment, businessmen cannot be

regarded as a force, but merely as a catalyst.

To the extent thatthey pretend to be a political force, their effectiveness as a force in the

business environment is actually prejudiced,

and their catalytic capacity in the political

sphere is usually destroyed altogether.

This is not to say that the business community cannot influence events in the political arena. It can, and must, but should do so

appreciating the fact that it does so as a

catalyst, and not as one of the primary

agents. The objective must be to facilitate

the black communities, which are primary

agents, speaking for themselves through creditable political structures.

One of the remarkable qualities of any

catalyst is its consistency. One ofthe disconcerting attributes of the catalytic role played

by the business community in South African

politics is its inconsistency. This, in turn,

destroys the cohesion of the message communicated to government. One wonders, for

example, whether the extremely important

Federated Chamber ofIndustries, Afrikaanse

Handelsinstituut and Assocom resolutions,

and Project Free Enterprise conclusions, are

even recognised, let alone reinforced in the

process of direct interface between business

leaders and government. If not, government

is justified in concluding that the positions

taken in those resolutions are not genuinely

held by the "captains" ofindustry, but merely

by the "hotheads" who participate in their

formulation.

Perhaps even more importantly, such inconsistency has an adverse effect on the message communicated to the black communities.

It is worth remembering that the real issue is

how we are to accommodate the group which

constitutes 80% of our population; not how

we are to accommodate the ruling party.

As exponents of freedom, we should also

appreciate that given the opportunity to do

so, the black communities are well able to

argue their own case. As long ago as 1913, a

South African black man, Sol Plaatje, argued

in most articulate fashion againstthe Natives

Land Act, which allocated 13% ofthe area of

South Africa to 80% of the population, and

87% of the area to 20% of the population.

He concluded his book, Native Life in South

Africa, with the following poem, and it behoves us to heed the warning well:

Alas, my country! Thou wilt have no

need

Of enemy to bring thee to thy doom . . .

For not alone by war a nation falls.

Though she be fair, serene as radiant mom,

Though girt by seas, secure in armament,

Let her but spurn the vision ofthe Cross;

Tread with contemptuous feet on its command

Of Mercy, Love and Human Brotherhood,

And she some fateful day, shall have no

need

Of enemy to bring her to the dust.

Some day, though distantit may be -with

God

• A thousand years are but as yesterday -

The germs of hate, injustice, violence,

Like an insidious canker in the blood,

Shall eat the nation's vitals. She shall see

Break forth the blood-red tide ofanarchy,

Sweeping her plains, laying her cities low,

And bearing on its seething, crimson flood

The wreck ofGovernment, of home, and

all

78
The nation's pride, its splendour and its

power.

On, with relentless flow, into the seas

Of God's eternal vengeance wide and

deep.

But for God's grace! Oh may it hold thee

fast,

My country, until justice shall prevail

O'er wrong and o'er oppression's cruel

power,

And all that makes humanity to mourn.

CSO: 3400/730

/9317

79
SOUTH AFRICA

FAR EAST 'UNDERCOVER CAPITAL' FINANCES MANUFACTURING COMPLEX

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 12 Dec 86 p 18

[Text] j A "hush hush" investment of around

. R18 million invested represents the la-

! test influx in an apparently growing

I flow of "undercover" capital entering

1 South Africa despite official disinvestment policies overseas.

The money, belonging to (mainly

Japanese) Far East interests has been

brought in via the financial rand to finance a new video cassette and audio

equipment manufacturing complex in ;

the Botshabelo industrial area near

Bloemfontein.

Speaking at the opening of the complex — built for Electronic Magnetic

Associates (EMA) South Africa — the

managing director of Alkhan Industrial

Consultants (AIC), Mr Schalk Coetzee,

also noted that the R94 million invest- i

ed in the Botshabelo area by entrepre- \

neurs in the past three years has come

"predominantly" from overseas.

He added that "another seven industries" involving a similar proportion of

fixed investment from outside South

Africa were now under investigation

by his company in "other areas of

Southern Africa.

"As location consultants, we have recently been instrumental in establishing 31 undertakings of which 19 are

from overseas." <

This has helped create 6 000 jobs and.',

a further 12 new projects in the pipeline for Botshabelo will mean another,

3000.

"When the multiplier effect is taken

into account, industrialists here have

been instrumental in creating a livelihood for more than 50 000 people," said

Mr Coetzee.

In addition to private sector invest-,

ment, "more than R50 million has been

provided for infrastructure at Botshabelo by the SA Trust Development Corporation.

The EMA video and

audio manufacturing

complex will produce

video cassettes for both

the South African and exr

port markets. •*;;

Electromagnetic coat-J

ing of tapes is envisaged

"within a year," followed

by the manufacture of.

audio cassettes. ";

The company says offshore capital is financing

the whole deal. . <

Funds from virtually

all overseas countries

which have "officially

and openly" declared policies of disinvestment

from South Africa are

said by development con--

sultants questioned this'

week to have continued,

"or even initiated," their

fixed investment in SA.

The consultants say

this is increasingly helping to offset the outflow

of capital as a result of'

companies disinvesting.

i — Sana

/13406

CSO: 3400/721

80
SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAELI LOOPHOLE IN SANCTIONS NET DENIED

Johannesburg THE STAR in English 15 Dec 86 p 11

[Article by Chris Moerdyk]

[Text] Suggestions that South African manufacturers have found a loophole in the sanctions net by taking advantage of the United

States/Israel free trade agreement concluded in August last year,

have been denied by Israel's economic and commercial counsellor

in Johannesburg.

Mr Daniel Golan was reacting to speculation that the agreement

allowed for the duty-free export of South African goods through

Israel to the United States and that this was the reason for a

70 percent increase in South African exports to Israel.

He said the agreement made provision for any country to send ' products for 35 percent completion in Israel and subsequent export

to America. However while Israel's anti-sanctions stance did not

prevent South Africa from taking advantage of this, it was unlikely

to prove to be a practical proposition.

On face value the agreement might appear to be an ideal oppor- '

tunity for South African companies wishing to break sanctions but

in practise it was much more complicated and would prove to be

more expensive than using accepted sanctions-busting routes

through other countries, he said.

"In percentage terms South African exports to Israel appear

dramatic but in monetary value the amounts are still relatively

small. Certainly the increase in exports from this country to Israel

does not have anything to do with Israel being a conduit to the

American market. Very simply the depreciation in the value of the

rand has made South Africa an extremely attractive buying market for Israel," Mr Golan said.

He said the newspaper report speculating on the use of the

agreement as a conduit for beleaguered South African manufacturers and which related these to South African/Israeli trade

increases was "exaggerated and out of date".

The former president of the South African/Israeli Chamber of

Commerce, Mr Joe Hallis, said that speculation was based on an

81
annual trade publication of the chamber published three months.

ago. . '"

The intention was not to promote a sanctions loophole but simply

to bring to the notice of any South African company trading with

Israel that in terms of the agreement any product that was 35 percent completed in Israel was deemed to be an Israeli product.

"The Press report simply consisted of extracts from an article I

produced for our annual trade publication and the reporter drew

his own conclusions," he said.

Meanwhile, American sources have said it was not likely the

United States would take action against Israel in spite of clauses in

the Anti-Apartheid Act allowing for countries to be penalised for

helping South Africa break sanctions.

The irony of the situation, observers said, was that those who

formed the anti-apartheid and sanctions lobbies were the same

people who had been promoting improved trade relations between

the United States and Israel.

/12828

CSO: 3400/705

82
SOUTH AFRICA

WESTERN AID PROGRAM PROPOSED FOR RAPID END OF APARTHEID

Cape Town LEADERSHIP in English Vol 5, 1986 No 6 pp 18, 20-22, 24

[Article by David Welsh]

[Text],

History seldom allows its flow to be placed in convenient

single-year containers, but, as 1986 draws to a close, we

may well ask whether it has been a watershed year, a

year which the historians of the future will declare to

have been decisive in the unfoldingSouth African drama.

It has been a year in which profound processes continued, and significant events happened. People of all

colours and with different political agendas wondered

for how much longer white rule could survive; others,

perhaps of more optimistic disposition, were thinking

and debating what forms "post-apartheid" South Africa

might take. Everywhere one sensed that South Africans

had recognised that a new era was being bom. A painful

birth, perhaps, and whether the infant would be bonny,

an open question.

The mostsignificant event of 1986 is that it has been

the year in which what has been called "the black veto"

crystallised. By this is meant primarily the capacity of

blacks to mobilise themselves in such ways that they can

thwart, frustrate, or neutralise virtually any government

initiative aimed at greater control or tighter enforcement

of apartheid rules. More than this, the common feeling

among many blacks is that the old order ofwhite domination is cracking rapidly: a few more heaves and the

entire edifice will come crashing down.

The latter perception is almost certainly inaccurate ifit

is a proposition about the balance of power. That balance may be changing and the State's legitimacy and

effectiveness may be impaired, but it remains formidably powerful and, for the foreseeable future, not in

danger of being overthrown. But "perception", however wrong, is what counts, and the crucial psychological

barrier that large numbers ofblacks have crossed is their

belief that the end ofthe hated structures of apartheid

is in sight. This perception creates hope, boosts morale,

and increases determination. It stands in a reciprocal

relationship to the opposite mood developing among

many whites, namely declining confidence in the system's capacity to endure, lower morale, and even emigration.

Attitudes, moods and perceptions, ofcourse, are not

homogeneous among population groups any more than

political attitudes are. They vary with age, education,

class, career prospects and other variables. "Black South

Africa" and "white South Africa" are abstractions that

conceal the divisions and rivalries within each category.

To suppose that black and white confront each other as

monolithic blocs is grossly to under-estimate the complexity ofthe conflict.

The "black veto" power derives from several sources:

the sheerfact ofblack numbers and the economy's dependence upon blackworkers; the dramatic expansion

of black trade unions in general, and their leverage in

particular in the crucial mining industry; the expansion

of black education, even if of deplorable quality; the

rise of black consumer power, and the actual and anticipated rise in black urbanisaion. This is not an exhaustive

list, but it delineates the sources of this greatly augmented black leverage.

Much of the dynamic underlying increasing black

leverage derives from what happened in the Seventies.

In that critical decade, three major things occurred: the

strikes of 1973 convinced many employers, and some

key people in government, that industrial relations could

83
not continue to rest on denial of trade union rights to

black workers; the violence of 1976-7 showed just how

dangerous a flashpoint black education was; and, as the

National Manpower Commission showed, if South

Africa was to continue to grow economically, the pool of

high level manpower could no longer be restricted to

whites. In short, job reservation had to go, and the provision for training blacks in skilled and even managerial

capacities had to be expanded.

Unhappily for South Africa, the growth rates of the

Sixties (5,5% a year) and Seventies (3,5% a year) have

not been sustained, and over the past five years average

annual growth is estimated to have been 0,7%. The

simultaneous expansion of black education (quantitatively atleast) and the contraction ofthe economy form

a highly explosive mixture. South Africa's population

growth requires it to create nearly 1 000 jobs each working day, or 300 000 a year, to provide employment for

new entrants onto the labour market- a figure that can

be projected to reach 430 500 a year by the year 2000.

Job-creation on this scale requires an annual growth

rate of at least 4%, but official statistics suggest that as

many as 200 000 jobs may even have been lost between

1981 and 1985, while estimates of an unemployment

figure in excess of 3m have been made.

The figures underline the major objections to sanctions: that by constricting growth they weaken those

sources ofleverage that blacks should find most hopeful

in theirstruggle for human rights. It is a grim irony that

1986, which I have called the year of the black veto,

should also be the year in which the sanctions issue came

to a head. Itis my argument that an expanding economy,

requiring society to unshackle the skills and creativity of

all its people, would be the surest and least destructive

way to increasing black bargaining resources.

What are the tangible effects ofthe veto? The abolition ofinflux control may serve as an illustration: influx

control was a cumbersome, wasteful and unjust way of

trying to keep blacks out oftowns. It had to go not only

because its enormous conflict potential was at last recognised by government, but more importantly because

it was no longer capable of being enforced, and government had to recognise that the urbanisation of blacks

was an unstoppable process. Another example is the

aborted independence of the Kwa Ndebele homeland:

it did not take place because determined elements in

the black community effectively blocked it.

Consumer boycotts in the Eastern Cape, refusals to

pay rentals and taxes, school boycotts, refusals to be

forcibly moved, and the repudiation of participation in

apartheid structures are all variations on the same theme:

the mobilisation of black leverage for the purpose of

frustrating official policies or thwarting new initiatives.

One must be careful not to overstate the point. Nor

should one overlook the growing black backlash against

issues like the school boycott or the strong-arm methods

ofsecuring compliance by street committees. Making

townships "ungovernable" and forcing black local

authorities into dissolution exacts its own toll on those

who now have to live with even less adequate services.

A further feature of the current period has been the

resilience of black political organisations. Despite the

State of Emergency, in which many thousands have

been detained, it does not seem that the mood of defiance in black communities has been destroyed. Reports say that the common response to the pressure has

been to broaden the base of their structures but to

operate in ever-smaller units - area committees, street

committees, yard committees and so on. Reports also

indicate that about 40% of the detainees in this State

of Emergency are aged 18 years or younger.

There are grounds for supposing that one of the

State's key control mechanisms, its network ofinformers in the black townships, has been badly damaged, if

not destroyed. Alleged informers - the so-called iimpimpi - have been the target of peculiarly vicious reprisals, along with other alleged collaborators in the

State's machine.

The amoeba-like qualities ofblack organisation and

the inherently loose and decentralised structure of an

organisation like the United Democratic Front (UDF),

which is a coalition rather than a monolithic or unified

movement, make it difficult for the State to eliminate it.

Instead, itseeks to restrict and harass it by detaining individual leaders (who are quickly replaced), declaring it

an "affected organisation", and curbing its activities.

It would be misleading to conclude thatthe situation

in black politics is homogeneous throughout the country. Clearly it is not, and the configurations of black

politics differ widely among, say, Soweto, Port Elizabeth, Cape Town and Durban, the latter having a peculiarly complex situation owing to the powerful presence

of Inkatha. Consonant with this picture is the intense

rivalry between black organisations, which has been one

factor in the "black-on-black" killings that account for

roughly 30% of all deaths in the violence.

Estimates of the distribution of support for black

political movements are notoriously imprecise, but most

observers would agree that the resurgence ofsupport for

the African National Congress (ANC) makes it indisputably the dominant organisation in terms of popularity.

With impunity blacks openly declare their support for

it, flaunt its colours, chant its slogans and venerate its

leaders, a phenomenon that in itself signifies one dimension of the veto power.

84
It should not, however, be assumed that the widespread support for the ANC as the symbol of the black

struggle for rights, enables it to determine events inside

the black townships. It may set a general policy, such as

"making the townships ungovernable", butthe initiatives at grass-roots level are taken by the young militants.

Indeed, there is a lot ofevidence to suggestthatthe ANC

itself is worried by its inability to exercise control and by

the supremely alienated and brutalised condition of

many ofthe "young" comrades who join it in exile. One

may add here that the ANC does not exercise control

over the black trade union movement either. A body like

COSATU certainly associates itselfwith the liberation

struggle, but at the same time it declines to be a mere

pawn of the ANC.

In white politics there is a general consensus in opposition quarters that P W Botha's reform programme

ran out ofsteam, largely as a consequence of fear that

his political base would be further eroded by the ultraright. This is probably an over-simple view of a situation

that is more complex.

A study ofBotha's speeches over the pastthree or four

years shows that he is remarkably consistent, at least

about certain core issues: the "group" basis ofSouth

African society and the consequent need for constitutional planning to accommodate both individual and

group rights; a group's right to its own (ie segregated)

community life, in particular in matters ofresidence and

schooling; and a refusal to negotiate with organisations

unless they forswear violence. For the rest, it would

seem as ifBotha is quite contentto see the scrapping of

all other discriminatory legislation. The bottom line is

that he refuses to contemplate a political system in which

whites could be dominated by sheer weight of votes.

This principle, as incorporated in the tri-cameral

Parliament, represents the limit ofhow fargovernmentis

prepared to go.

It accepts that blacks have to be incorporated into the

decision-making process at all levels and it accepts, in

theory at any rate, that whites can no longer govern unilaterally. Provided these principles and the other "nonnegotiables" remain above questioning, all else is open

to negotiation. Hence, the publication this year ofthe

National Statutory Council Bill, which is designed as a

forum for negotiation between white and black.

The linchpin ofthe South African system is the compulsory assignation of each individual to a "racial" or

"ethnic" category in terms ofthe Population Registration Act. The "groups" to which government spokesmen refer are not necessarily the results oforganic processes of voluntary association. Societies with diverse

cultural and racial compositions, are invariably dominated by ethnically-based groupings. A South Africa

stripped of all apartheid legislation would almost certainly display the same phenomenon, butwith this critical difference: the groupings formed by the process of

electoral mobilisation, by opportunities of voluntary

association, and by possible converging class interests

would probably not closely resemble the statutory categories established underthe presentlaw. What configuration of groupings would be produced, and how far

ethnicity would be the decisive determinant, are not issues that can be answered apriori. Nor can it be assumed

that such a configuration, once it had crystallised, would

endure -issues change, priorities shift and new coalitions of interest are formed.

The point has to be emphasised: by making statutory

population categories the building blocks ofall its constitutional structures, government sets in concrete a sham

form of "ethnicity" and ensures that none ofits political

initiatives is able to put down roots oflegitimacy. There

is a strong case for building minority safeguards into the

constitution of a deeply divided society, but government's approach is such as to continually discredit the

entire principle.

It has to be acknowledged that some positive movement in government thinking has taken place. The actual changes in the economic and industrial relations

spheres, and in relation to the status of urban blacks, are

not simply "cosmetic". Nor are those more subtle

changes that have occurred in the realms ofideological

underpinning ofpolicy. Some idea ofthe magnitude of

change can be roughly gauged by comparing what National Party (NP) spokesmen say today with what the

Conservative Party says. The latter's thinking is a fossilisation of NP thinking of the Fifties and Sixties, a

point which they themselves invoke to belabour P W

Botha forstraying from the path oftruth and righteousness established by Dr Verwoerd.

The evidence suggests that the NP is held together

by little more than the interest of staying in power.

The reform dynamic has run out ofsteam, the leadership lacks a vision and contents itself with inept crisis

management. Above all, it is paralysed by the supposed erosion of its constituency to the ultra-right.

Thatthis erosion is more imagined than real can easily be seen from survey data which shows that the

combined forces ofthe ultra-right have, over a four-year

period, not managed to attract the support of more

than 20% of the electorate. In other words, they are

not making rapid and dramatic advances. Whatis true,

however, is that some 50 Nationalist-held seats are in

jeopardy and, as most of these are in the Transvaal, a

substantial number ofMPs are edgy. Even iftheultra85
right's ability to oust government is in doubt, the

threatened Nationalist MPs in the politically most significant province, possess sufficient influence in the

caucus to act as a drag on the party as a whole.

Scattered and impressionistic evidence suggests

that the fears ofthese endangered MPs and the doubts,

uncertainties and fears expressed at the grass-roots

level and fed into the party machine, account for the

apparent hardening of the leadership's attitudes earlier

this year. Being taunted with the "headless chicken"

accusation was not only galling, it was electorally damaging as well. It is highly likely that the skewering ofthe

Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group stems from

these factors.

It would be wrong, however, to assume from the

paralysis ofthe governing party that white attitudes are

hardening and becoming more intransigent. That may

happen if conflict intensifies and unemployment bites

deep among whites, but thus far survey data does not

suggest it. On the contrary, the findings of a Mark en

Menings survey (commissioned by a political party) indicate some liberalisation of views. Thus, 56% of white

voters favour the release of Nelson Mandela, compared

with 39% in 1985; 45% of whites are unhappy with

apartheid compared with 33% in 1985; 42% believe

blacks should be included in Parliament; 67,3% believe powersharing with blacks is inevitable; 48% believe that government should negotiate with the ANC;

and 56% support an entrenched bill ofrights to protect

freedom ofspeech, religion, movement and the interests of minorities.

The same data reveals what one has suspected for

some time about the NP: that its public representatives and core support constituencies are deeply riven.

The possibilities offurthersplits to the right cannot be

excluded, but it is virtually impossible to imagine a future rapprochement between the Nationalists and the

parties of the ultra-right. The legacy of murderous infighting and rivalry is too great for that. It is not impossible to imagine some form of coalition-building between a post-P W Botha National Party, shorn ofsome

of its closet ultra-right wingers, and the Progressive

Federal Party (PFP). I am reluctant to develop this

scenario further because it rests upon so many imponderables and, in any case, predictions about future political realignments have a notoriously high casualty rate.

Suffice it to say that one need not assume complete

stasis in white politics.

Images of "going into the laager" or "fighting to the

last drop of blood" are not necessarily accurate representations of how people react in situations of crisis.

I have suggested that 1986 is the year in which the

black veto crystallised; I have drawn a picture ofwhite

politics that suggests contradictory features of both

paralysis and movement. Ifthe two sides ofthe equation

are brought togetherI suggestthat we have the politics

of deadlock:

D The revolution is unlikely to happen. Far more likely

is a situation of endemic but inconclusive violence,

violence that ebbs and flows, is difficult to eradicate but

does not fundamentally threaten the State;

D Government's reform programme is unlikely to find

many receptive and credible black leaders willing to

participate in its negotiable elements; and

D There is a growing recognition that the status quo is

untenable and that it is exacting a devastating toll on

our society.

How does one break deadlocks? To my mind this is

the most pressing question that South Africans have to

answer. There has been discussion ofwhat a post-apartheid South Africa might look like, what kind of constitutional and political system could cope with our diversity,

and how distributive arrangements could reconcile

equity with growth. These are laudable exercises and

while I do not discount their value, I believe that they

are premature unless they embody some strategy for

change.

How change occurs will shape in crucial ways the institutional patterns and the political culture ofthe postapartheid society.

Orthodox conflict theory tells us that parties to a

conflict may seek to negotiate their differences when

both perceive that they are incapable ofimposing their

demands on their rivals. When both sides recognise a

"no-win" situation, and both recognise that they would

be better off with a compromise resolution than they

would be if the conflict is allowed to perpetuate itself,

then a negotiated termination of the conflict becomes

possible, though not assured.

A critical stage in this process is the mutual recognition that the other's strength (measured in resources,

staying power, etc.) is too great to permit outright defeat. In the real world of conflict the tragedy is that all

too often nations, ethnic movements or armies that are

programmed for violent conflict have a built-in resistance to realistic perceptions of their own limitations:

the mutual recognition dawns only when the devastation is far advanced.

Against this sketchy theoretical background where

does South Africa stand? Clearly it is some way down a

dangerous road of escalating conflict that has internal,

regional and international dimensions. White South

86
Africa has become militarised to a degree and its leaders define the situation as fighting off a "revolutionary

war"; reciprocally, the ANC, with a large domestic

constituency and substantial international support and

legitimacy, defines itself as fighting a "war of liberation". Judging by the hideous index of fatalities the

war is not far advanced, ifone compares South Africa's

situation with Algeria, Northern Ireland, Lebanon or

Israel.

No one can be sure what the major antagonists have

in their minds by way of longer-run scenarios. Yet it

seems not unreasonable to conjecture that neither

would wish to see South Africa reduced to rubble,

materially or spiritually. Peacemakers, like my colleague

H W van der Merwe, assure me ofan intense desire on

both sides ofthe big divide to reach a negotiated settlement.

Government must surely realise that even the amount

offorce it can deploy will not eliminate or extirpate black

South Africans' desire for freedom in a non-racial society;

and the ANC must surely realise that historically more

"wars ofliberation" have been lost than won, and that

the South African case is not likely to alter that findingAt this stage ofthe argument it would be convenient

to pull a white rabbit out of the hat or invoke some

other deus ex machina, but this is obviously not possible.

If a durable accommodation is to be found it will come

from the arduous labours and deep commitments of

South Africans ofall colours to create peace and sustain

it. What happens to South Africa will be decisively

shaped by the actions of South African actors themselves. Contrary to whatsome ofthe more enthusiastic

proponents ofsanctions mightsuppose, external leverage-through-punishment is not only unlikely to succeed, but may well aggravate an already vexed situation.

On the other, it is worth considering the possibilities

that might lie in external leverage-through-inducement. In short, the carrot, not the stick.

The trouble with sanctions is that they don't work.

They damage economies, but never, to my knowledge, do they force a targeted state to change its offending practices to conform with what those imposing

sanctions desire. Sanctions, moreover, are blunt instruments, not easily amenable to adjustment or relaxation to reward "improved behaviour". Moreover,

one has gloomily to note, the chances are that the

ratchet effect ofsanctions is likely to mean that the response to their perceived failure is not to abandon

them but to impose tighter and more far-reaching

ones.

Sanctions will be costly to South Africa and her regional neighbours. They will also be costly to those who

impose them. None should contemplate lightly the

gradual destruction of the continent's only economic

powerhouse, a process, moreover, that when far advanced could only be reversed with great difficulty.

An imaginative plan might be this: to persuade a

consortium ofWestern nations with traditions of trade

with, and investment in, South Africa to join forces

with some non-aligned states (which is a matter for discussion) with a view to seeking to play an "honest

broker" role in South Africa. Stated simply, the plan

would involve the rapid abandonment by the South

African government of all racial discrimination and a

commitment to create a negotiating forum whose task

it would be to hammer out a constitution for a non-racial South Africa. In return for this, the honest broker

group would commit themselves to offering aid to South

Africa on a scale that would enable it to overcome poverty

within two generations.

It may be considered a little eccentric to offersuch a

proposal in this very year in which the honest brokers

ofthe Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group failed.

How close the EPG came to succeeding in its mission

to facilitate negotiations with government and the

ANC is not known. That the ANC was willing to call a

truce and participate in "proper and honest" negotiations is clear from the report. As far as government is

concerned, the EPG report recorded its impression ofa

"divided government" that was "not yet ready" to

negotiate for the establishment of a "non-racial and

representative government".

Postures, however, do not remain static. It may

even be a matter of note that government allowed the

EPG to visit South Africa and to engage it in dialogue.

However disappointing the outcome, at least government did not flatly rule out honest broker efforts at

mediation.

Ifthe South African situation deteriorates politically

and economically, government may become more

amenable to an internationally facilitated settlement.

As I have argued, the "laager", "last-drop-of-blood"

scenarios are not necessarily valid, as Afrikaner history

itself shows. In terms of my suggestion, the consortium of mediators would come not only with goodwill

and good offices, but offers of aid as well.

I have deliberately left vague many of the details.

How much aid would be required to sustain a growth

rate of, say, 8% or 9% a year, what kind of aid, and how

the strings would be attached, are all important matters

that competent experts would have to work out. My

87
concern is with the broad principle and with the chances

of its gaining broad acceptance.

Equally complex would be the details ofsetting up

structures for internal negotiations, how decisions would

be taken, and how the constitutional forum would relate

to government during the transitional period.

As the cynics say, every solution has a problem. I

have no doubt that this proposal can be assailed in all

kinds of ways, not least on the grounds of its evident

impracticality at a time when the South African government is more isolated than ever before, and shows

signs of being as bloody-minded as it ever was. This

may be so, but none of the principle antagonists in the

South African drama is being left unscathed by the

conflict, and all, I fear, will have an opportunity of

peering into the abyss of civil war.

Do rational people reject out of hand a proposal

which, if carried through, could spare them those horrors, lift them out of poverty, and enable them to

create a stable and democratic society? I am convinced

that a large coalition of all races would find this option

preferable to any of the alternatives.

I am also convinced that this proposal would find a

lot ofsupport in the international community. There is

a genuine concern in many quarters that South Africa

must not be reduced to an economic wasteland; there

are also fears about the costs ofsanctions on the economies of the states that might impose them (150 000

jobs in Britain?), or the awkwardness offinding alternative sources of certain materials.

I have tried to stress that our principal need now is to

go beyond analysing the dynamics of the situation and

to chart ways out of the crisis. It is necessary to break

out of the well-worn grooves of conventional analysis,

and to think radically, innovatively and creatively.

CSO: 3400/726

/9317

88
SOUTH AFRICA

ECONOMIST EXPECTS SLOW, PATCHY RECOVERY IN 1987

Cape Town LEADERSHIP in English Vol 5, 1986 pp 46, 49

[Article by Attie de Vries]

[Text]

The year 1986, which initially was anticipated with the

hope of higher growth, lower inflation and an easing in

political tensions, turned out to be another miserable

year economically. Politically and socially it was not

much better with the countrywide re-introduction of

the State of Emergency.

One can indeed draw up a long list ofwoes that beset

the South African economy during 1986, and the first

halfofthe year in particular. Economic growth in SA's

main trading partners remained subdued despite the

decline in the external value of the US dollar. As a result the demand for certain commodities, notably oil,

declined, leading not only to lower prices but especially to lower international inflation and inflationary

expectations. This in turn lead to the gold price remaining under pressure in the early months ofthis year

and this, together with escalating political violence at

that time, had a depressing effect on the rand. The

lower rand for its part helped to continue fuelling

domestic,, inflation, making the lowering in real standards of living that much more visible. No surprise

then that business and consumer confidence remained

at a very low level and that government, with hindsight,

could not get the economy going despite further stimulatory measures after a too conservative 1986 budget.

All this lead to a renewed downturn in economic activity during the first half of 1986 after signs that the

business cycle was turning upwards emerged towards

the end of 1985.

The second half of 1986 was dominated by an increase in overseas pressures towards isolating SA on all

fronts from the international community. In this regard

the abortive visits from the Commonwealth Eminent

Persons Group (EPG) and Sir Geoffrey Howe on behalf

ofthe European Community (EC) can be sited. Much

more serious was the introduction oflimited sanctions

by these groups and more stringent ones by the US

legislature despite the attempts ofPresident Reagan to

soften the blows. The last few months were furthermore characterised by the announced withdrawals ofa

number ofwell-known international companies.

The apparent deterioration in SA's foreign relations

should impact negatively on the domestic business

mood. Yet, perversely, an improved sentiment is

emerging partly as a result of the apparent improvement in domestic political stability and pardy as a result of the higher dollar price of gold as well as the authorities' stimulatory stance starting to take effect.

Although the signs emanating from the domestic

economy are still rather mixed, the long awaited upswing appears to have arrived. Whetherthis upswingwill

be sustained for any length of time will depend on a

number offactors.

The first question to be answered is whether the

South African economy can start an upturn without the

necessary support from exports. Although the expected

real growth rates ofmost ofSA's major trading partners

are somewhat higher than that reached in 1986, this

will not be enough to push the demand for our exports,

in volume terms, much higher. In fact the volume of

exports could well decline ifthe impact, however limited, ofsanctions is taken into account. Against this, a

better agricultural season might compensate for the

negative impact ofsanctions but this will not be enough

to lead to any sharp increase in the volume of SA's exports. The possibility ofsomewhat higher export prices,

89
also for go|d and some ofSA's strategic metals and minerals, exists. All this should help to keep our current account of the balance of payments in a healthy surplus

despite an increase in the volume ofimports as domestic

stock levels are being topped up.

It must be remembered, however, that the enforced

repayment offoreign debt will prevent the authorities

from using the full or even the greater part of the current account surplus to further stimulate the domestic

economy. In fact, towards the end of 1987 the total balance of payments position might again become a

bottleneck should the upswing be too fast in the initial

stages.

The most important factor dictating the course of

the South African economy during the next few years

could well be inflation. Inflation, as measured by the

rise in the consumer price index, remains uncomfortably high. Ifit is correct that the South African economy

is at the start of a new upswing this will be on the highest ever inflation rate. South Africa is thus entering uncharted seas with no one really knowing the consequences of the high inflation on future growth or the effect of higher growth on inflation. It is a fact that at the

moment high inflation, coupled with the low level of

real activities, is making serious inroads on the ability

of people to spend.

A sustainable upswing will thus not be possible

without either curbing inflation effectively or allowing

sharply highersalary and wage settlements. Should the

latter happen, however, this might lead to either

further inflation and/or more unemployment as companies will find it impossible to pass on the resultant

cost increases in full. Itwould thus appear as ifa critical

factor in the sustainability of the upswing will be to

curb salary and wage demands for as long as possible

but this must inevitably lead to a slow recovery for the

greater part of 1987.

The question can rightly be asked whether it is not

possible to bring the ruling inflation rate down in any

significant way. It would appear as ifthe lagging effect

ofthe depreciation ofthe rand will really be felt in 1987

when imports start picking up and this, coupled with

structural problems in the economy, will probably prevent the inflation rate from coming down much below

15% on a month-on-the-same-month-a-year-ago basis.

To try and fight inflation by further cutting back on

demand will not help at all. Hopefully, the new stress

on privatisation and deregulation will lead to lower inflation over the longer term, but this will not help

much in 1987. Perhaps it will be necessary to start

thinking about the very negative economic and human

costs inflation is having on certain sections ofthe population, such as pensioners, and devising some formula

for compensating them even if only in part.

These factors point to a rather slow recovery in the

initial stages which will start to gather some momentum towards the end of 1987. Even the rather modest

growth outlook ofabout 3% in real terms is subject to a

further improvement in the business mood and consumer confidence and is thus closely linked to political

and social developments. An improvement in consumer

confidence is an absolute prerequisite for an improvement in private spending and then on durables, in particular. With real disposable income still at a low level,

durable spending will remain in the doldrums if consumers cannot be convinced to buy more on credit, and

this will not only be a function of the level ofinterest

rates.

Looking at growth on a sectoral basis, it is clear that

the sharpest recovery should be in the field of consumer durables, albeit because itstarts offfrom such a

low basis. Spending on clothing and footwear and nonluxury food should also be buoyant. Consumers will,

however, remain sensitive to price rises, so competition between suppliers will remain fierce.

With capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector

still low, no sharp increase in new fixed investment can

be expected although some replacement demand might

develop. Thus, the demand for machinery and equipmentshould remain low although import replacement,

in reaction to the lower rand as well as sanctions, might

occur. This, plus some build-up ofstocks in the wholesale and retail sectors, might lead to a relatively healthy

improvement in manufacturing output.

Given the conditions regarding fixed investment in

general, the non-residential building sector could remain in the doldrums except for the construction of

schools. Private house building could decline even

further with net emigration continuing.

With domestic inflation expected to remain sharply

higher than that of our main trading partners, the rand

will remain a weak currency over the longer term.

Against this it can be argued that the rand is at present

undervalued in comparison to its intrinsic value. Given

the debt overhang, the need to re-negotiate repayments

in 1987, the full effects ofsanctions already announced

and the real possibility offurthersanctions being imposed, the rand will probably remain under pressure.

Even against a depreciating US dollar it is foreseen that

the rand could again test the Rl = US 0,40 cents level

during the second half of 1987 when the surplus on

current account is dwindling fast. Such a movement,

which implies sharper depreciations against the other

major currencies, could again lead to an acceleration in

the domestic inflation rate.

90
With inflation remaining high and inflationary expectations possibly hardening again in the second half,

it cannot be expected that capital market rates will decrease much from their present levels before starting to

rise again in the second half of 1987 to levels around

18% in the case of long term Escom loans. Given the

uncertainties besetting the longer term future, the trend

towards more medium term borrowing might continue.

Money market rates are not influenced to the same

extent by inflation. With the balance of payments current account reflecting a substantial surplus at first and

then tailoring off towards the end of 1987 and net reserves rising still further, downward pressure on money

market rates should prevail forsome time to come. This

is especially true of the prime overdraft rate as well as

mortgage rates where the authorities might engineer a

further cut to get the economy going. In fact, die '.'pure"

money market rates, such as overnight rates and the BA

rate, are already discounting a further cut of about 1%

in prime overdraft rate. With an improvement in general

economic activity during 1987, the demand for money

should increase and the authorities might react to that

by allowing short term rates to start rising from the second quarter of 1987 onwards. However, in order not to

abort the upswing too early the expected hardening of

short term rates will be marginal, with prime overdraft

rate not higher than 14% at the end of 1987.

This oudook for 1987 implies that, at best, it will be

a rather slow and patchy recovery gathering some

momentum during the year. The recovery will barely

be sharp enough to prevent a furtherrise in unemployment and the continued high inflation will keep real

salary and wage increases at a bare minimum. The upswing should continue beyond 1987.

In evaluating the probabilities ofsuch a scenario it is

not necessary to point to the frailty ofthe international

economic situation. Should deflation become even

more prevalent, the gold price might retreat again,

making life rather difficult in SA. From outside the

economy, the biggest uncertainty is international political action against this country, which makes forecasting

virtually impossible.

However, the most important imponderable is the

action and reaction ofthe South African authorities on

a wide front ranging from pure politics to the fighting

of inflation. The authorities hold our destiny in their

hands.

CSO: 3400/726

/9317

91
SOUTH AFRICA

GOVERNMENT BELIEVES WORST UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM OVER

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Dec 86 pp 1, 2

[Article by David Furlonger and Mick Collins]

[Text]

GOVERNMENT and industry believe the worst of the unemployment

problem may be over.

Although more'people have lost their

jobs during 1986, officials say the trend is

slowing and the picture should soon show

signs of improvement

Nobody is certain, however, of the true

level of'unemployment in SA.

The number of registered unemployed

at the. end of October was 127 700, an

increase of 200 on January. But that

figure includes only those who have registered. Nor does it include people from

Transkei, Ciskei, Venda, Bophuthatswana and self-governing states.

Independent studies estimate that, excluding these regions, unemployment in

SA is about 700 000. including them, the

figure soars to 2-million to 3-million.

Manpower Director-General Piet van

der Merwe saw: "Unofficial estimates

vary wildly.. The University of South.

Africa estimates the total figure is about

2-million. If we include all the various

states, that is probably about correct"

He says R44m in unemployment benefits have been paid so far this year, at a

rate of Rl,5m each working day.

With an economic'growth rate of only

1% expected in 1987, Van der Merwe

admits prospects of a pick-up in the formal jobs market are not bright

"Growth won't be inindustry but inthe

informal sector. With the move towards

urbanisation^there-wül be jobs in the

informal sector in construction andW"

/12828

CSO: 3400/692

lated industries. It will be self-help to a

large extent. Many people are already

doing this."

The steel and engineering industries,:

which have shed tens of thousands of jobs

since 1981, have seen a reduced rate of

retrenchments this year.

An estimated 4 000 jobs have been lost

in the industries in 1986, bringing the

workforce down to about 347 000. Says an

industry official: "We are starting to stabilise. We are down to a hard-core labour

level now. We cannot afford to go lower "

An estimated 14 000 jobs have been

lost in the motor and allied industries

this year — again a slowdown on pre- '

vious losses. Motor manufacturers laid

off another 4 000, while component manufacturers and the retail/distributive

trades each laid off about 5 000.

The Federated Chambers of Industry

sees a slight improvement.

A spokesman says: "Employment in

the manufacturing sector in January

1985 was 1347 000. This figure declined to

1317 000 in January 1986 and declined

further in June to 1316 200.

"Since then we have seen a steady

approvement and the latest available

g

<!££ for ^Ptember was 1319 000.

,no

Whlle we are stm below the levels of 1985, we are already better than the

trough that was reached in June 1986 "

. The SA Federation of Civil Engineering Contractors says the sector has been

enjoying a,slight upturn, but it is too

early to say if the worst is past.

A Johannesburg Chamber of Commerce labour spokesman says: "Unemployment is»also flowing from the great

protagonists of the disinvestment lobby

I believe unemployment created by disinvestment is a lot greater than is realised."

One sector to show definite increases

is mining. The Chamber of Mines says

there has been increased employment on

the gold and coal mines of its members.

92
SOUTH AFRICA

SURVEY CONSIDERS STATE OF ECONOMY FOLLOWING SANCTIONS

Johannesburg FINANCIAL MAIL in English 12 Dec 86 pp 37-39

The chances of free enterprise surviving

[Text ] sanctions intact (let alone the post-sanctions

socialistic black government many people

fear is inevitable) must be extremely low.

While the private sector will continue to play

an important role, particularly in sanctionsbusting where government's intellectual and

bureaucratic ponderousness renders it impotent, increasing bureaucratic control will be

difficult to ward off.

One of the most important factors in Rhodesia's 15-year survival under sanctions was

that it had a nimble, intelligent and adroit

civil service which allied itself with an equally dextrous private sector. That example will

no doubt be used as a model here. Unfortunately, our civil service may be an obstacle

rather than an aid.

"With the structural dislocation of manufacturing industries, the State will have to

assist," says Bryan Bench, research officer at

the SA Institute of International Affairs.

"To me it is seif-evident that the State's

operations will have to expand. Priming the

pump cannot lead to a massive blooming of

capitalism. Employer organisations will have

to monitor their interests a lot more closely.

"The enthusiasm that followed Pik

Botha's statement in Witbank inviting the

world to 'hit us with sanctions and we will

show them what we can do' was ill-advised."

Bench points out that the private sector

already depends fairly heavily on government contracts. The military-industrial complex is completely under government control.

"This could expand into the service sector,

the computer industry and others," he says.

The prospect of improved economic

growth in the next two to three years, however, will provide a respite for the free market

system. "The arguments to try to save the

market economy will probably prevail

through to about 1989," says JCI economist

Dr Ronnie Bethlehem. "In the initial phase,

SA will probably benefit from sanctions. It is

when deterioration begins that the pressure

on the market economy will become intense." .:.^'-XEconometrix's Tony Twine believes that

the concept of inward industrialisation being

touted with enthusiasm as a solution to SA's

problems will involve increased government

intervention. "Unfortunately, government is

not capable:bf optimally introducing resources mi»Jhe system, so we will end up

with the wrong things being produced in the :

wrong quantities at the wrong price, and ;

shortages and distortions will develop. Everybody will be building dams when aaually

we need canned peaches."

Increasing centralised control does not, of

course, automatically lead to the total withering-away of the private sector. "It is possible to have an economy which is both protected and directed, and yet have free

enterprise survive," says Nedbank's Edward

Osborn. "Government should aim for this.

"It does not have the knowhow and competence to take over every aspect of the

economy. This is evident in the way government is approaching the private sector, particularly since 1980.

"A siege economy would be as free as now

in some respects. However, government will

be drawn into a greater involvement and

interference with industry, if only to protect

the BoP through imports. In extreme conditions government may have to impose strict

import controls."

Fears are widespread in the business com-

, munity. "Free enterprise is now more threat-

' ened than ever," says consultant Mike Perry.

"Already the government has started exercising more control. Mines, for instance, are

being told who they may or may not employ.

93
"When the sanctions screw is tightened

and really starts to affect our ability to

import, government will start allocating

foreign exchange to business and dictating

what it may be spent on.

"From that time on, bureaucracy rules.

We will have civil servants dictating what

sort of technology inputs we can bring in. We

will see a lowering of standards in business,

which will lead to increased inflation."

Free Market Foundation executive director Leon Louw argues that the correct approach would be precisely the opposite.

"Government could neutralise sanctions just

by reducing its foreign trade restrictions," he

says. "If sanctions impose an additional

10% transaction cost on foreign trade, government could easily bring about an equivalent reduction in trade barriers.

"Government should release the creative

energies of the free market, which is likely to

be much more imaginative in overcoming

sanctions than the bureaucracy. Unfortunately, the knee-jerk reaction of government

will be to try to control things. This would

be insane, like shooting yourself in the foot."

It is little consolation that, as PFP leader

Colin Eglin observes, free enterprise is a

limited concept in SA in any case. Clearly,

says Eglin, sanctions will weaken the private

sector, make it less independent and increase

the State's role in planning and regulating

economic activities.

The question is, how far will the process

go?

"My real fear is of ending up in a totally

controlled Communist-type economy," says

Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine. "In the past decade, industrial and

financial concentration has increased dramatically. The economy is far less versatile,

and we don't have the spirit of entrepreneurship we once had.

"The private sector is a sitting duck for

nationalisation — and this will be very

tempting to a future black government." !

Job Losses

Sanctions, it is widely said, will hurt the very

people they aim to help — the blacks. This is

borne out by projections by Johannesburg

Consolidated Investment's group economics

consultant, Dr Ronnie Bethlehem, who postulates that 2m jobs will be lost by the year

2000 as a result of sanctions. By then, he

reckons, only 8m people will be in employment _ barely more than the 7,7m now —

whereas without sanctions the figure could

be 10m- ' c w i~. "By far the greatest proportion ofjobs lost

would be in the unskilled category," says

Bethlehem, "for, under sanctions, the total

number of skilled jobs would actually increase as sanctions necessitate more capitalintensive production to maintain competitiveness and profitability in export markets.

In the short term, employment could rise

under the impetus of import-replacement

activity, and could even return to the longrun trend line. "However, after 1988-1989,

as sanctions escalate, the benefits of this

adjustment would most likely exhaust themselves. The business sector, to sustain profitability and compeiiiivep.ers. vouid have to be

ruthless in retrenching surplus labour."

At least part of the cost oi" sanctions couid • be displaced to other countries in the region ;

by, for example, repatriating migrant workers. Even so, it will not be possible to avoid

increasina unemülovment within SA.

The main beneficiaries of sanctions are

likely to be technically and professionally

qualified workers. The continuing brain

drain would increase the:* scarcity nnd thur

place a premium on tcei: skiiis.

/: addition. Bethiehem points out. mese

classes, because of accumulated savings, are

'' best positioned to protect themselves against

inflation, through hedged investments. "The

increase in share prices since the sanctions

crisis broke in June is a reminder that the

processes of adjustment do not only concern

the distribution of income," he says. "They

also concern the distribution of wealth.

"Increases in share prices relative to fixed

income securities and property redistribute

wealth on a large scale from middle and

lower income groups to the more privileged;

there is little that the authorities can do to

counteract it. It is an irony advocates of

sanctions appear to have overlooked."

94
Rhodesian Analogy

i

Is Rhodesia refcrant? Do its 15 years' surviv-:

al in the face of economic sanctions have a

message as SA sets off down the same path?

"I don't think it's terribly relevant," says

Safto GM Ann Moore. "We have a different

type of economy from Rhodesia in 1965. We

have gone much further down the line in

manufacturing industry, so continued industrialisation requires different things.

"Rhodesia could and did go quickly into

simple forms of import substitution. Our

needs are far more complex and sophisticated. We need more advanced technology and

more capital." She notes, too, that Rhodesia

had SA, not only as a conduit for imports and

exports and a filter against the outside world,

but as a major market.

"Each case is unique," agrees Edward

Osborn, a former Secretary for Agriculture

and Deputy Secretary to the Treasury in

Rhodesia/Zimbabwe under Ian Smith and

later Robert Mugabe. "SA will also be

unique; so will resolution of the problem."

Osborn (now of Nedbank) is in a better

position than most to know. His sources of

information about Rhodesia are impeccable,

and he has used them to produce an authori- :

tative study of the Rhodesian sanctions era

for stockbroker Ivor Jones, Roy. This has

been followed by another impressive document for Ivor Jones, SA Under Sanctions.

Despite Osborn's conclusion that SA

could survive sanctions for longer than Rhodesia, his advice is chilling.

"What comes out of the politics of the

situation is that when you have a possibility

of resolving the problem, grasp it with both

hands," he says, remembering Ian Smith's

lost opportunities at the talks on HMS Fearless and HMS Tiger. "The great danger is

having the thing drag on.

"Sanctions do ultimately work, either in

achieving some kind of political end re.««'»

which may or may not havefbeeji the intention at the outset, or in extraordinary distortion of the whole economic structure. Rhodesian UDI wer. or. for 15 years. One would

hcDs the sarr.e thing will no; happen to SA."

One should be in no doubt as to the severity of the impact of sanctions on the Rhodesian economy. They resulted in an immediate contraction of exports of tobacco,

asbestos, chrome ore, copper, sugar and beef

by more than half. This, together with the

loss of the Zambian market for manufactures, cut 40% off merchandise exports.

Though total exports recovered steadily

after 1966, they did not return to 1965 levels

until 1972. Then, after peaking in 1974,

exports declined again and by 1980 were

back to the 1965 level.

True, Rhodesia survived nearly 15 years,

but at great cost "Rhodesia was compelled

to react to mandatory sanctions by imposing

the severest forms of control on the economy,

particularly import control, exchange control and fuel rationing," writes Osborn.

"Virtually all imports of luxury goods

were eliminated, imports of vehicles on

wheels substituted by completely knockeddown kits for local assembly, imports of food

reduced to a minimum and priority given to

raw materials for domestic manufacturing

industry and capital goods.

"Even so, supplies were always critically

short, but more severely so when allocations

had to be cut back further to make way for

imported fuels. By 1979, imported fueü represented 30% of total imports."

Rhodesia did, indeed, have some golden

years of growth in the middle phase of UDI.

Osborn identifies four distinct phases during

the 15-year siege. During the first three-year

adjustment, GDP growth averaged 3,9%.

The next six years were a period of boom,

when growth averaged 8,6%.

This came to an end in 1975-1978, when

everything seemed to go wrong. Perhaps

most critical was the world oil crisis, imposing an additional burden which the seemingly virile but delicately balanced economy

could not sustain.

But it also coincided with escalating

armed conflict and the withdrawal of Portugal from Mozambique, which ultimately

placed unbearable strain on Rhodesian manpower and made it wholly dependent on SA.

During this phase GDP declined by 3,4%

annually.

Sometimes forgotten is that this dependence on SA eventually put Ian Smith at the

mercy of PM John Vorster, who put the final

nail in Smith's coffin when he withdrew

support in exchange for a nebulous promise

by Henry Kissinger that the US would adopt

a softer stance towards SA.

Finally, from 1979-1981, when the transitional government was in power and resolution of the Rhodesian question was at hand,

there was a recovery to an annual growth

rate of 2,1%.

Official figures show that Ian Smith hand95
ed over an economy which was not bankrupt

— if not exactly in blooming health. The

balance sheet of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe-Rhodesia reflected gold and foreign

reserves of $139m in 1979, against a foreign

loan liability of $8m.

But was even this modest bank balance the

truth? Says Osborn drily: This can only be

a spurious claim of national solvency at the

eve of independence, for short-term foreign

indebtedness and government's foreign liabilities must have been considerably more."

Rhodesia on the eve of UDI was a small

but innately sound and diversified economy.

Ten years as dominant partner in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland had given

it a strong financial institutional structure.

It enjoyed low inflation, low interest rates

and a stable money market. There was no

monetary restraint on enterprise. In those

respects, it was better placed then than SA

now. Another difference is that the imperial

context of Rhodesia's UDI was completely

different from that in which SA will battle

sanctions in the next decade.

Here the issue is the transfer of power

from white to black, an emotive issue which

will not easily be abandoned by the outside

world.

The world has lost its innocence," says

Osborn. **It has crossed the divide between

sanctions and no sanctions. It imposed sanctions on Rhodesia with considerable thoroughness and on a prolonged tasis. It did not

tire — the Rhodesians did."

Blow to Morale

The sense of isolation from the real world

sets up a severe morale problem among the

more dynamic members of a society — the

young, intelligent and highly skilled.

Banking, retailing and computer programming are among many sectors where techniques rank with the best in the world. In a

siege economy, as the country is starved of

technology and know-how, already depleted

valuable human capital will lose ever more of

its more mobile members.

"When you fall behind, a lot of more

competitive people leave," says Mike Perry,

MD of strategic management consultant

Mike Perry & Associates. They will probably never return if SA slips into permanent

backwardness."

More mobile people also tend to be more

liberal. This creates problems for, among

others, the Progressive Federal Party. But of

more concern to PFP leader Colin Eglin is

that the reformist initiative will be lost.

"I think there will be a tendency to consolidate and rally round the government," he

says. "Attention will be diverted from fundamental reform to how to live under sanctions.

If you put those together, in the short term it

will shift the centre of gravity of white voters

towards the right and away from the concept

of reform."

Eglin concedes that these negatives may

be offset to a degree by increased attention

to import substitution and labour-intensive

manufacturing, but in the medium term, as

the economic situation deteriorates, socioeconomic conditions for blacks will deteriorate, especially in urban areas.

In the long term, Eglin sees continued

gradual deterioration of the infrastructure

which will make it even harder to shake off

the "legacy of apartheid." Vast reconstruction would be required, he argues, "and you

will not be able to achieve that in a situation

of economic repression."

In Eglin's view, two things have to be

done: "To the extent that sanctions will have

a negative impact on the reform process, one

has to try to counter it. Sanctions are a

direct consequence of the internal situation,

and South Africans should not change moral

course. The things that need to be done

internally will also lead to reasonable relations' with our Western partners.

"Secondly, if sanctions cause unemployment, one must replace those jobs in another

way. The negative socio-economic impact

must be minimised."

, Eglin, however, has little hope that government is at all susceptible to his pleas.

"Government seems not to know what to do,

it is battening down the hatches and trying to

ride out the storm."

96
Eglin detects since early May a perceptible hardening of attitude in government

towards fundamental restructuring of the

political equation. This flowed from evidence

of a white backlash, the breakdown of law

and order in the black townships and misinterpretation of President P W Botha's statements on power sharing.

"His own reform process and the words he

used — such as power sharing — raised

expectations to a level he realised he had no

intention of fulfilling," says Eglin.

Boycott Phases

Despite three or four decades of piecemeal

sanctions of various kinds, SA has reached a

clear watershed in its boycott history. It is

only now, in the view of most observers,

embarking on an era similar to the 15 years

of Rhodesia's UDI.

An analysis by Johannesburg business

strategy consultant Mike Perry identifies

three phases in the sanctions life-cycle.

Phase 1, which he calls "The gathering

storm," has begun. This is characterised by

both severe threats and profitable opportunities. The initial shock of sanctions is feit

during this phase, which will last. Perry;

estimates, 12-18 months.

The economy suffers a sharp once-off

"terms of trade effect" as exporters have to

pay middlemen and develop new markets,

often on a price-penetration basis. Businesses invest in disguising and re-labelling

products and using secret distribution channels either to retain existing markets or develop alternatives. This, ofcourse, costs money — the "sanctions discount" which in

Rhodesia was put at 10%-15%.

The shock, however, may be somewhat

less severe than that experienced by Rhodesia during the same phase because of the

greater diversity of the economy.

Import control is introduced, with an adverse effect on economic efficiency, and import substitution sparks a boom in local manufacturing.

Phase 2 is a period of rapid expansion, but

it is, says Perry, a "misleading boom." The

effectiveness ofsanctions in the early part of

this phase declines, and export market and

product diversification starts to pay dividends — but export profitability remains low

because of the sanctions discount.

Import substitution, on the other hand,

begins to pay off in terms of economic output

and employment creation. In Rhodesia, this

phase lasted six years; Perry believes it could

be about the same here.

While this scenario is highly speculative,

two political developments (elections in Britain and the US) during the next two years

inject confidence into the projections. President Reagan's departure will almost certainly bring an end to any cushioning of sanctions policies in the US. And in the UK, if

the Conservatives lose the next election, a

tougher stance is certain. In any case, pressure for more sanctions is bound to continue

both in the Commonwealth and in the EEC.

"Towards the end of Phase 2, the impetus

from import substitution begins to fail as

projects become increasingly capital-intensive, foreign currency-intensive and hi-tech

intensive.

Phase 3 is one of permanent deterioration.

The sanctions net is widened, the foreign

currency constraint tightens, domestic economic expansion fails to keep pace with population growth, and unemployment grows.

The security, threat begins to soak up more

and more government spending.

97
"In this phase, sanctions' effectiveness

shifts from the impact on exports to the

impact on investment levels, on job generation, on technology, on the brain drain and

on the renewal and replacement of obsolete

equipment," Perry says.

"Government must make changes to make

SA acceptable to the outside world. If we get

into Phase 3, we won't recover."

As evidence for this, Perry points to Zimbabwe which, he says, is performing as'

though sanctions were still in force. "Businessmen are not much better off than during

the sanctions era," he says.

His gloomy view is supported by Nedbank

chief economist Edward Osborn. "In extremis, you create an uneconomic economy," he

says. "After sanctions, it remains so for ever.

There is no question of opening up the Zimbabwe economy to foreign competition. The

whole panoply of protection Ian Smith put in

place 20 years ago is still there."

Perry's analysis ties in neatly with the

"sanctions threshold theory" ofthe SA Institute for International Affairs. This describes

the thresholds for each progressive tightening of sanctions.

"In terms of this theory, there are three

conditions for comprehensive sanctions,"

says research officer Bryan Bench. "Continued occupation of Namibia; continued destabilisation of neighbouring states; and

domestic unrest and repression.

"We have seen differing attitudes develop

towards sanctions by particular groups in the

West. The US has gone furthest down the

road because apartheid and the southern

Africa issue have become an intrinsic part of

the civil rights question in the US and as

such are now a domestic political issue."

This is not the case in Europe, however.

There is no great population movement pressuring for sanctions in Whitehall, Bonn and

other capitals. Indeed, the sanctions question

in Europe is marked by deep divisions.

Both Britain and Germany have a high

dependence on strategic minerals from SA.

Britain, in addition, has strong ties of history, culture and kinship — not to mention

the fear that an estimated 800 000 people in

SA with a claim to British citizenship may

be forced to return.

Though the generally accepted figure of

600 000 may be an over-estimate, Portugal's

expatriate community in SA is undoubtedly

large. The problem for Portugal is uniquely

sensitive. Not only do these people repatriate

large sums of money to their homeland, they

have the vote in Portugal.

Progress on sanctions in Europe has also

been affected by the extreme nature of the

measures approved by Congress. Had they

been müder, a number of other nations couid

have :aken a lead from them.

Bench does not believe Japan will meekly

follow the US lead. "They operate differently," he says. "The pressures and lobbying on

the Japanese government are qualitatively

different."

/12828

CSO: 3400/705

98
SOUTH AFRICA

SANLAM QUESTIONS »SUSTAINABILITY' OF ECONOMIC UPTURN

MB150732 Johannesburg SAPA in English 0455 GMT 15 Dec 86

[Embargoed until 2200 GMT on 15 December 1986]

[Text] Johannesburg, 15 Dec (SAPA)—In spite of intensified sanctions, it

seems that in recent months a perceptible improvement in sentiment has occurred with regard to South Africa's immediate growth prospects, says a state*

ment issued by SANLAM,[South African National Life Assurance Company]. It

adds that if nothing unforeseen happens, it is expected that this revival

could gain momentum next year.

Even so, according to Mr Johan Louw, SANLAM's chief economist, there are a

few factors that place a question mark over the sustainability of the recovery-^specially after 1987,

"Considering the increasing pressure on the country's balance of payments,

it is clear that continued growth will have to be generated mainly internally.

Consumption and, particularly capital expenditure, have a high import content,

however, and the purchase or replacement of these goods at extremely high

prices will exert even more pressure on the external accounts. Furthermore,

the real salaries and wages of workers have dropped sharply over the past two

years."

Mr Louw says with the prospect of a continued high inflation rate in 1987, he

is not expecting an appreciable improvement in real remuneration levels next

year either, This, together with high unemployment, low employment levels and

large debt obligations, makes consumers unwilling to make use of credit on a

large scale.

Mr Louw believes lower short „term interest rates-rWis was announced recently

and tax relief for individuals are necessary to prevent economic growth from

coming to a halt, "We consequently expect the next budget to be fairly stimulating, with inter alia markedly higher capital expenditure on projects

related to the social infrastructure. Further, it is of the utmost importance that we lower our inflation rate, or we shall have to deal with renewed

recessionary conditions before long, "says Mr Louw.

He adds that it is clear that far-reaching changes are required in our economics structure and in the distribution/division of opportunities and income.

/9274

CSO: 3400/679

,_ -:- 99
SOUTH AFRICA

HEAVY RAINS RAISE HOPE OF RECORD 1987 MAIZE CROP

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 17 Dec 86 p 1

[Article by Mick Collins]

[Text]

HEAVY rains throughout the summer

grain-producing areas have raisedhopes

. for a record 1987 crop.

Final estimates lor the 1986 maize

crop indicate an exportable surplus of

^million tons.

However, a reportpublished by Johannesburg analysts Kahn & Kahn cautions that the current favourable growing conditions must prevail throughout

December, January and February to

prevent a set-back.

"The critical months are the first two

months of 1987 when hot weather is expected. It is vital that hot conditions be

relieved by regular rainfall."

Farmers have also been urged to step

Si production of white maize forwe in

e production of-maize meal as consumers continue toshbwaatrongprefer-.,

«nee for the ipurt^whlte product ^ "

The report sa^^ maize crop«tl-,

mate for Sfc^to^earMds,at 7,7-

jnillion torn, of#nicfalt2£% W «Site

maize and 57,5% yellow maize.

^The total consumptionofmaize in SA

is estimated at. 5,5-million tons, depending on economic circumstances. All of

the exportable surplus (2,2-million tons)

is yellow maize."

The final estimate for the 1986 grain

sorghum crop is 431650 tons compared

with 591295 tons in 1985.

"The unproved flexibility of the floorprice scheme administered by the Grain

Sorghum Board has resulted La the enure crop being absorbed domestically.

"Even if crop had been as much as

900000 tons there would have been no

need to export, which is good from the

E

farmer's point of view due to the deressed state of world grain markets,"

ie report says.

However, the report advises farmers,,

foaoeek outlets rÄrbugb «ormal^rade ?

channels in 1987, which will offer higher

prices than the established floor-price.

/"When this becomes impossible, far-

: mers should utilise the facilities'^ .the

board as a last resort." 1.3

;': -, It says certain changes are being in-

' vestigatedin the grading regulations for

She coming season. --H^ :-t

.In the past yeargrain sorghum-competed with maize and in the coming

season it is hoped that sorghum *can

again be offered to the aiümal feed industry. ■■■•' :' '"' .■■•■■;'4-"

The production of grain sorghum in

certain areas is more-economic than

maize. Even in the disastrous growing

season of 1983/84 the yield per hectare

was 1,02 tons.

There have been seasons when the

average yield countrywide has been as

high as 2,8 tons per hectare."

Initial fears.that the Dry Bean Board

would-lose money because of the floorprice purchase of huge tonnages in 1985

and 1986 were dispelled early in October

when world prices surged.

Failure of the US crop saw world

prices appreciate dramatically, which

allowed SA exporters to tender to the

board for its entire stocks. :,-,

"These are now being exported.There

i is much to be said for the initiative and

:'f%iarketawar<ne8S-ofprtvs^a^«'j»eytt

which was quick to capitalise%fe the

misfortune ofthe US bean farmers tp4he

benefit of the SA economy" ; v &,

/12828

CSO: 3400/692

100
NEW PLATINUM MINE WILL BE COUNTRY'S THIRD LARGEST

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 15 Dec 86 pp 1, 2w

[Article by Adam Payne]

[Text]

NORTHAM PLATINUM will provide

the JSE with its next major mining issue

— at a total project cost of R559m.

Preparations for shaft-sinking are

well advanced and major expenditure

willstart to be incurred by February,

when a share issue is expected.

. Gold Fields will do its own refining.

This has beenassumedinthe calculation

of an overall cost of R559m, in June-1986

money.

Gold Fields nolds 78% of Northam,

Consolidated Gold Fields has about 12%

and the remaining 10% is held by a

syndicate led by gold analyst and geologist Fred Collender, who has been involved in other platinum-area sales and

launches in the past

A rights issue has been made to these

shareholders, and Gold Fields passed on

some of its rights to members of staff

locf week.

Pre-sinking has been completed at

both shafts. No 2 shaft, which will be a

combined upcast and downcast shaft

9,15m in diameter, will start sinking towardsthe endofthe first quarter of 1987.

It will have a steel headgear, which is

being erected at present.

Sinking should start on No 1 shaft

toward the end of the third quarter. It

has a concrete headgear, which is being

«pupped at-presenJ^and will be the

main downcast ventilation shaft:

All headgear work will take six

months to complete.

Access to the site, which has clay sou

(impassable in wet weather), has been

assured by building a 9,5km aU-weath«

road. Building of living quarters and

housing is weft on schedule

/12828

CSO: 3400/692

Northam, unlike Rusplat and Impala,

has no land in Bophuthatswana; it is all

in the Transvaal, to the north of Rusten-

' burg's Amandelbult section.

The property covers 10 300ha, withthe

shallowest ore level at 1150m below

surface, making it the deepest and hottest SA platinum mine.

Extensive drilling achieved 90 intersections of the Merensky and TJG2 reefs.

Only the Merensky reef will*e mined

initially.

It is estimated to contain 163-milliön

tons of ore, grading 10,lg/t, of which

60% should be platinum, 25% palladium,

8% ruthenium, 3,2% gold, 3% rhodium,

1% indium and 0,8% osmium.

Mining will be at a rate of150 000 tons

a month, making Northam SA's third

largest platinum mine after Rustenburg

and Impala, and ahead of Western Plats.

Output is projected at about 280 OOOoz

of platinum a year (compared with Rustenburg's 1,3-million oz), 117000oz of

palladium, 37 OOOoz of ruthenium and

15 OOOoz of gold.

Proven reserves are down to a depth

of 2 700m. Mining will be carried out

from a depth of 1150m.

Water is available.

Initial power will be available from a

generating plant, and a permanent

power supply from Escom is expected to

be available in the second half of next

yean

The mine is scheduled to start producing by the end of 1991 or early 1992.

When fullv operational two years later,

about 5100 people will be employed.

The planned sequence of operations is:

D Sinking of No 2 shaft to about 1745m

(No 10 level);

D Development of the upper levels of

the mine from No 2 shaft concurrently

with sinking No 1 shaft to 2145m (bottom of shaft); and

a Deepening of No 2 shaft to 2145m..

No 1 shaft will be the main hoisting

shaft. No 2 shaft will hoist men, materials and rock, and provide upcast ventilation.

101
SOUTH AFRICA

BUSINESS LEADER DISCUSSES POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

Cape Town LEADERSHIP in English Vol 5, 1986 No 6 pp 10, 12, 14

[Interview with Chairman of Old Mutual Jan van der Horst by Hugh Murray;

date and place not given]

[Text]

DrJanvanderHorstis unquestionably the eminencegrise ofSouth African business. As chairman ofthe Old Mutual,-byfar South Africa's

mostpowerful financialinstitution, he exercises

influence directly andindirectly overallsectors

oftheeconomy,nottomentionSA'spoliticallife.

At 67, Van der Horst works tirelessly and

ceaselessly keeping together all the ends of Old

Mutuats vastnetwork ofinterests. These interests

include investments which have grown overthree

times in value during thepastfive years to Rl 7

384m. During die past year, the Mutuafs total

premium andinvestment income amountedto no

lessthan R3 542m.

A confidantofthecountry'spoliticalleaders, he

has overthe years earneda reputation as a moderating influence on AfrikanerNationalistthinking. Those associated with him on the boards of

such companiesasBarlowRand(inwhich theOld

Mutual holds 35%), Nedbank (ofwhich it has

now taken control), Safmarine and the SA PermanentBuildingSociety-tonamebutafew-are

atpainsto stresshis benevolentrole.

AtBarlowRand,forexample, heisknownasa

brilliantfinancial'analystwho looks afterthe

. Mutuafs interests without falling into the trap of

ilictatingindustrialpolicy.

\

r

an derHorstseldomgivesinterviews, and

rarely discusses his political views, preferring a

lowprofileand arelativeveilo)'confidentiality. In

this interview with Leadershippublisherandeditor

Hugh Murray, Van derHorsttalks franklyabout

some ofthe important matters with which he, and

his organisation, arehavingto come to grips.

Murray: Could we examine the role in our

society ofa businessman like yourself, who

heads up the country's most powerfulinstitution? Whatis yourrole in relation to the

community and the country atlarge?

Van der Horst: The first position any

businessman must take is to see to it that his

business is solvent. Thatis the base from

which he muststart. I agree with Peter

Druckerwho said that profitis not the object

ofbusiness, notthe purpose ofbusiness, but

itis the test ofthe validity ofbusiness. I went

into business atthe end of 1942 and since then

things have changed a lot. In the Forties, the

question ofwhetheryou paid a man a fairsalary, a salary thatwas market related, was

never raised. You paid a man as well as you

could afford to. Today itis one'ssecond objective in a corporation to see that yourstaff

are paid salaries that are adequate, and which

meet not only the needsoftheirfood, housing

and clothing, butis also adequate in terms of

whatthe marketwants. This tendency is

going to become more prevalent in South Africa as we attemptto help in advancing people

in the business world, and as we experience a

' brain-drain. Having said this, it is extremely

difficultto move people from Third World

situations to positions in the First World part

ofour community. There are cultural gapslearning gaps. In these areas business has to

help and the Old Mutual gives priority to the

102
teaching field, the universities and organisations like the Urban Foundation.

I have been silent on political matters because I believe that businessmen can do their

best to improve things in this country by

doing efficiently their own job ofwork. That

doesn't mean I don't hold a political view, but

I also don't think businessmen should climb

onto political platforms the whole time.

I find that approach interesting since many

chiefexecutives ofaffiliated and controlled

companiesmake strong politicalstatements

and have established profiles oftheir own

whichmay be quite high in terms ofnational

politics. Isthis not anomalous and in contradiction to corporate policy?

I don't necessarily think this is an anomaly. I

think it indicates cultural differences between the institutions and the businesses in

which it holds interests. We hold large

investments in many companies, but I think

our record is established thatwhile we must,

by ourpersonal participation, influence those

investments in the direction we think they

should go, and we think is profitable, we essentially distance ourselves from the control

situation. I have no problemwithchiefexecutives expressingwhat they genuinely believe

because I know in that way they can make

their biggest contribution. I do come from a

school which places a priority on looking after

the business and its profits. But in our multipolitical position, one must allow the same

freedom in business that one should have in

religion. You can't prescribe. I cannot prescribe to any ofmy colleagues, here atMutual

headquarters or outside, what line they

should take in politics. I don't think that is

inconsistent with my personal preference for

a low profile.

IfI have something on my heart, I prefer

to go and talk to a cabinet minister orwhoever, in the same way that I will go and talk

to one ofmy colleagues.

You are one ofthose people who has access

to the State President and his colleagues;

Youclearlyhave influenceon the quietbasis

you talk aboutButdo youbelieve thatquiet,

low profile approach remainsthe most effectiveway generally ofdealingwith

government?

I don't know what kind ofinfluence I have.

Obviously, I can't comment on that. But I remain convinced thatface-to-face, man-toman, one-on-one discussions mean you have

a far better chance ofconvincing people that

your point ofview is correct, ifindeed it is.

Obviously this doesn't always work and it

would be presumptious ofme to claim that.

You don't always get your own way. But I

reckon ifyou are right and effective 50% of

the time, you are doing very well.

In the eyes ofmany

people, financial institutionsin this country are growing into

monsters. On the other

hand, many ofthose

with whom the Mutual

hasmajor dealingsremain convinced that

yourinfluence is benevolent, with a beneficient effect on the^

community atlarge. How do you regard

those who claim thatthe monsterscenario

is more accurate?

The conceptofbeingagood corporate citizen

is a very broad one. One tries to improve

things, the institution must try to improve

things through attitudes and through helping

other people. One ofthe answerswe can have

to our critics is to point to the workwe are

doing outside our operation and which improves society. Certainly insofar as the Old

Mutual is concerned, we don't try to gobble

up everything. We hope investments have

been made which will create something better. Sometimes you have to operate a support

system, sometimes companieslose theirway.

And while you don't go in forcontrolyou have

a duty to bring them back onto the road again.

Sometimes we like to have inputs into their

decisions, but even with a big stake in a company like Barlows we haven'tsaid we want to

control the board. Mike Levett and I are on

that board. But we are basically organisation

men. Ourjob is to make money for our policy

holders. It is as simple as that..I return to my

view that the company's first responsibility is

to stay solvent and to earn a return on capital.

In this connection, it is important to rememberwe do not have particular expertise

or the management resources to manage

other companies in other businesses, on any

103
large scale, and do not feel it would be appropriate or in the national interest to do so.

We do, however, have proven expertise in

channellingourfundsinto the areas ofhighest

return, including those companies that are

likely to achieve above average growth in the

long term. This is not only clearly in the interests ofour policyholders but materially assists in the best allocation ofscarce resources

to those areas in the economy where they can

be most productively used. Here we have demonstrated that we have made and will continue to make a massive contribution of

financing economic growth and job creation.

I don'tthink anyone would dispute thatthe

Mutualsets a positive tone. Butsome years

ago Donald Gordon ofLiberty Life stated

that very soon half a dozen orso companies

would controlthe country. He opened a debate which has continued eversince. Now,

with sanctions and disinvestmentwhere

there are vacuumsto be filled and purchases

to be made,some ofthem atfire sale prices,

people are concerned thatthe institutions

are going to move in and pick up as much as

theirliquidity will allow. Can thisreally be

healthy?

Let's look atthe otherside ofthe question.

What happens ifwe don't? I suppose we are

going to have many instances ofdisinvestmentwith people moving off, leaving South

Africa the poorer. We must realise we have

entered a new phase ofour economic life with

sanctions. We will have to see what life is

goingtobe like undersanctions. And yes, this

certainly does have implications for the

growth ofthe institutions. In this regard, I

hope the government will also have a good

look, for instance, at the work ofthe Competition Board. Whatwe need now is big,

strong institutions which can stand the bad

weather and the storm thatlies ahead. Our

present approach to competition must become a little more flexible because we are

talking here about our continued existence -

survival. I don't know whetherwe have

grasped that yet. This may lead to further

concentration, butthat may be the only way

to survive.

I thinkwe must be very careful in our assessment oflife companies because these institutions are going to have to fulfil a different

but even more important role. I think sanctions are going to be with us for a long time.

Ifyou have read the American legislation, I

am sure you also wonder how we are going to

getthat offour backs.

I don'tthink the institutions have ever had

a greater responsibility than at the moment

to do whatever they are asked, orwhatever

they are planning, in a responsible way.

There has never been a greater need in South

Africa for us. Presumably part ofthe criticism

ofthe institutions is somehow based on a beliefor expectation that they should be visibly

and directly initiating, financing and managingjob-creating projects in the national interest, and creating new small businesses

with venture capital. Direct involvement of

this nature does, ofcourse, take place. In our

case we have such examples at the Richards

Bay Minerals Project (R4,5m) and ourcontribution to bodiessuch as the Small Business

DevelopmentCorporation (R2,5m ofequity

capital). We have also made large investments in specifically black housing amounting in total to loans of R71 m provided to the

National HousingCommission, including

R21m fora black housing project in Protea

North (Soweto) and R16m for another black

housing project in the Eastern Cape.

Both ofthese latter loans were arranged

through the Urban Foundation. Furthermore, in the area ofhousing, we have total

loans to the SA Permanent Building Society

amounting to R2S8m (including R181m for

our own staffmortgages).

Whetherthis is enough, I can'tsay. We

will probably have to do more. The problem,

ofcourse, remains that my responsibility to

policy holders- people ofall persuasions and

colours-is to investtheirmoney on a marketrelated basis. So I come back to my firsttenet,

you must be solvent and make a return. But

the institutions will almost certainly have to

invest more money down that avenue. On

this score, however, it is important that government also has a look atthe matter ofprescribed investments.

The whole question ofprescribed investments distorts the interest rate pattern.

Could you elaborate?

Ifyou invest a billion rand or more a year on a

compulsory basis and the interest rate is set,

then obviously that rate can't be the true level

ofinterest. The contribution ofindividuals

to pension funds and premiums paid on life

policies and annuities, have formed by farthe

bulk ofpersonal savings in this country for

many years. By law a large percentage ofthese

104
funds (on average about 40%) have to be invested in public sectorsecurities. Without

these funds the enormous expansion ofthe

economic infrastructure ofSouth Africa over

recent decades could not have taken place.

Very large amounts have been provided to

finance investments in electricity and water

supply, the railways, roads and harbours,

telecommunications, the iron and steel industry and so on. Old Mutual, for example,

has at present on its books loans amounting

to (at book value) R764m to Escom, R436m

to Sats and RIOOm to Posts and Telecommunications.

Because ofthe negative real interest rates

which have generally been paid on these

stocks, and even more because they have

consistently lost capital value because ofrising interest rates and inflation, the returns on

these compulsorily-held stocks have been extremely poor. To illustrate the magnitude of

whatis involved, we have calculated thatin

the case ofOld Mutual alone, the cumulative

losses on our prescribed asset portfolio

amounted to R362m as at April 4,1986.

This calculation only takes into account

the losses on capital value by comparing book

values with market values. The loss is, of

course, really much greater than this because

the opportunity cost has not been taken into

account-for example, the superior returns

that could have been earned on other assets

in the absence ofcompulsion, or alternatively

the higher returns that would have been available in prescribed assets were these returns

not artificially held down. Even on this basis,

however, the losses to the industry musttotal

close on Rl,5bn since Old Mutual can approximately be thought of as about one quarter ofthe industry. Anotherway ofassessing

losses to the industry is to calculate the income lost peryear. Assuming that a small real

interest rate was on average paid on such

stocks, compared to the negative real rates

actually paid, the losses in income peryear

are ofthe order ofR500-600m.

We should have far greaterflexibility and

should be able to perform betterforthe policy

holder or the pension

fund. There is a lot of

goodwill in the institutions. We live in differenttimes. And speaking broadly, I think the

attitudes ofthe institutions are also changing.

But in this matter ofprescribed investments,

we need some change ofheart from

government.

Speaking ofchanging attitudes, does governmentreally recognise the gravity ofthe

generalsituation?

I certainly hope so. I think the State President

realises it. I think government as a whole

realises it. Sanctions has brought with it all

kinds ofrealisations. Butwe have to accept

we are in this trouble. Never mind how we

got here, we are in it and we mustlive through

it. Thatis important. Whatis critical atthe

moment, ofcourse, is to get conversation

going. In my view, the South African government has tried to start talking.

In what direction should we be talking?

I believe thatifwe can starttalking and have

a federal bias or direction to our talks we can

work out a satisfactory solution. I recently saw

ChiefButhelezi. We talked very openly. To

my mind our future lies in that direction, because we are dealingwith a Christian, we are

dealing with a man who has Western habits,

and who believes in certain Western things

such as private enterprise, the business of

ownership, and soon. ChiefButhelezi is the

leader ofa mostimportanttribe. So much can

be done there.

The Natal Indaba is a conversation. I have

a beautiful essay on conversation which has

been with me most ofmy life. In talking both

parties change, and you can then really

change things. I believe the Indaba is one of

the most important conversations and can set

a pattern.

But I don'tthink any ofus does enough.

Ofcourse, we are not doing enough, but a lot

ofthings have changed.

Wasthere any real difference between the

November 7 meetingwith PW Botha and

the discussions attheCarlton Hotel and

Good HopeCentre in earlieryears?

There certainly was a difference. Atthe two

previous meetings a few ofus were asked

whether we would say something. So it was

people like Harry Oppenheimer, Mike

Rosholt, Anton Rupert, Kerneels Human,

myself and so on. You couldn't really address

matters. This time we were divided into 10

groups. The ministers moved around and we

105
were able to tell some ofthem quite frankly

where we thoughtthey were going wrong.

The 200 people went away with the feeling

ofhaving participated and having made a

contribution. I have no doubtthat government got the message. That message, from

private enterprise, was: Hurry up!

Hasthe State President got the managementinplace to implement change properly? Isit not true that most people are worried about government's ability to manage?

I don't know whetherwe have gotthe people

in place. I really don't.

Are we not heading to the point where PW

Botha is going to lookat aReaganoptionand

secondpeople to his political executive.John

Maree has beendraftedontwo occasionsto Armscor and Bscom-withenormous

success. Butthose were moves into

parastatals.

I don'tthink President Botha needs any selling on the principle ofusing private sector

people. One only has to look at the way he

also used Wim de Villiers. It certainly is the

President'sstyle to draft people. But as far as

political appointments are concerned, I think

there could be problems. Mr Botha is more

ofa political head than Ronald Reagan.

Perhaps what I mean is thatoursystemsdiffer

importantly. The President has had people

sitting in the House ofAssembly and the

other houses, some ofwhom have been there

for a long time. They are his political support

system. Thissystem really has problems with

a man from outside. I would agree with you

thatthere may be portfolios that could be depoliticised. What you call the Reagan option

could then certainly have a place in this

country.

But I also think that we business peoplemany ofus—are somewhat naive when it

comes to politics. You can'tsimply do things

the way you can in business. Very few business people last in politics because you need

to have special inclinations.

From a businessman, then: how should

South Africa approachits problems?

Wolmaransstad is my home town. I never

wentto school there, but I was bom there;

my fatherwas a pastor there; our family went

there 84 years ago; my son farms there and in

four generations there has always been a Van

der Horstthere. Three weeks ago I was made

a freeman ofthe town and I had to addressthe

local Sakekamer. I spoke to the people about

the troubles the district has been through. In

the BoerWar the town was burned down -

four houses were leftstanding. Itwas one of

the centres ofthe rebellion ofGeneral de la

Rey. There was the great'flu epidemic. My

fathertold me he walked solitarily in front of

coffins every day. There was the mine strike

in 1922. Therewas the Great Depression, the

drought and then the most recent drought

which has been going on for fouryears.

Wolmaransstad is surviving it. I think the

country can also survive its problems providing we have some purpose.

We need a people's programme touring

the people together. It has been my experience in business thatifyou can take people's

attention away from their relatively petty

squabbles and ifyou can give them targets,

they forget aboutthese problems. Ifyou can

get a business to work towards an objective,

people actually stop blaming each other because they all start going in the same direction. They say: this is the plan, this is where

we are going. Thatis whatwe wantin South

Africa. We want a programme to take the

people along. Butit must become more than

a plan. We have a bad history on plansparticularly five year plans. These plans were

put away in drawers and nobody looked at

them. Thatis not the ideal. A plan is a living '

thing. We need a living programme for tomorrow. Ifwe can getthat, ifwe can get

commitmentto that, we can go places.

106
Howcan organisations like the Old Mutual

promote growth and the creation of jobs?

The economy is notstatic and segmented,

but dynamic and highly interdependent. It is

a fallacy to see, on the one hand, a block of

institutions with large cash flows and, on the

other, an economywith low investment and

lack ofjob opportunities, and then draw the

conclusion thatwhat iswrong is thatthis block

ofinstitutions is not putting its money in the

"right" place and thereby contributing to a

. non-optimal economic performance. Capita)

in a free market economy naturally and correctly flows to the areas ofhighest return. If

there is lack ofwillingnessto invest in the new

productive assets and in projects which create

new jobs, then this is because borrowers perceive that the returns are not commensurate

with the risk. It is the lack ofwillingness to

borrow for expansion thatshould be the problem addressed by policymakers, and not the

lending policies ofinstitutions.

What is the Old Mutual's role in this?

The Old Mutual is a microcosm ofSouth

Africa. Its main function is to give security to

people. For that we have a huge sales force

out there sellingsecurity. The Mutual is there

to give people confidence. That is what we

are working for. That is ourjob, and that is a

very exciting one. What I am talking about,

however, has widerimplications for the country. What I am talking about is a programme

to lift people's horizons, to show that there

are betterthings ahead. I am not a sentimental

guy, butwe must give people a horizon.

There is such a lot ofgoodwill around, it

must be marshalled in the right direction.

CSO: 3400/726

/9317

107
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

ITALY DONATES TO OPERATION HUNGER—The Italian Government has given about

R470000 to Operation Hunger. The executive director of Operation Hunger,

Mrs Ina Perlman, received the donation in Rome this week from the bank of

the Italian Treasury, the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro. A Press statement

released by BNL and Operation Hunger said the money was to help Operation

Hunger "continue in alleviating the poor life situation" of many people in

South Africa. The BNL said it had chosen to give funds to Operation Hunger

because of its "private character and its peace and racial equality aims".

At a Press conference in Rome this week Mrs. Perlman said the money would be

used to sponsor 16 small agricultural projects each set on 3 ha. "Such aid

will supply 32000 people, most of whom are children, with the necessary means

of self-subsistence," she said. [Text][Johannesburg THE STAR in English

19 Dec 86 p 1][Article by Susan Pleming]/12828

STANDARD BANK ASSETS REDUCTION—London,, 19 Dec (SAPA)—Standard Chartered

Bank said in London today it had no immediate Intention of reducing its

holding in South Africa, but there was a possibility "that it might cut

back its assets in the future." It currently holds 39 percent of the bank's

assets in the republic, Spokesman Mr John Pank told SAPA: "There is a possibility in future that we might reduce to plus or minus 25 percent, but the

time is not yet," He was responding to claims from the anti-apartheid group

ELTSA (End Loans to South Africa] which had said it understood the bank was

preparing to reduce its holdings, ELTSA said it had approached the bank and

had been told that the political climate in South Africa was a factor in its

decision-making .process, Mr Pank firmly denied that any decision had been

made, ELTSA is an offshoot of the anti-apartheid movement. It has concentrated its campaign against banks, and the pressure applied in Britain

and in the United States is considered to have been a factor in the decision

taken by Barclays Bank to sell out its South African interests. [Text]

{Johannesburg SAPA in English 1618 GMT 19 Dec 86 MB] /9274

NEW BUSINESSES ON INCREASE~-By the end of October this year 24180 new businesses

had been registered in South Africa--an increase of 3431 over the total for

the whole of 1985, according to information released by Dun and Bradstreet.

The total number of actively trading companies in South Africa at present

is estimated at just more than 210000, with the total number of registered

companies and close corporations estimated at 300000. According to Dun and

Bradstreet close corporations continue to be highly favoured as a vehicle

for launching new businesses: 19790 had been recorded up to the end of

October this year compared with a total of 15911 for the whole of 1985.

The breakdown of trading companies is: public--4800; private--170000;

close corporations--36369. [Text][Johannesburg THE SUNDAY STAR (Finance)

in English 14 Dec 86 p 5]/12828

CSO: 3400/692 108
SOUTH AFRICA

INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH REFLECTS CHANGING ROLE OF BUSINESS

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 19 Nov 86 p 15

[Article by David Furlonger]

[Text]

INDUSTRIAL research has traditionally come in four stages, says AECI group

R&D manager Frank Fisher. These are

business support, extension and development, and finally new science.

" The first role, to support existing business,

has limited basic needs, including laboratories, libraries, computer centres, and good

research facilities.

"In this regard, AECI's Modderfontein

plant has catalysts, water treatment and

other research all linked to existing projects," says Fisher.

Stage two, extension of existing business,

is needed "just to move with the times".

Additional facilities needed here may include a patent section, with lawyers to protect a company's new products.

Stage three, development of new business,

is where the game starts to become expensive.

In addition to yet more laboratory facilities and teams ofsynthetic organic chemists,

it's time to start building pilot plantin order

to get processdesign informationand practical experience of bringing the new business

to the market

Having done that, it's time for full-scale

plant and production.

The final stage, development of new science, is one that industry has generally

stfifiFfid clc&r of

"Traditionally it was the Council for

Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)

and academics at universities who did this.

Or you might rely on overseas contacts,"

says Fisher. '

Now, with the changing role of the CSIR

and its new hand-in-hand relationship with

industry, these traditional roles are slowly

chanuinR.

/12828

CSO: 3400/709

"The situation is changing in that the CSIR

and others are being encouraged to move

into development That's good for industry

and for SA.

"Industry, meanwhile, will be moving

away from the support and extension categories of research into development of new

products. • ..-•. '

... "Our thrust at AECI will be towards new

business opportunities for the company. One

that comes to mind is synthetic fuels and

related technology — for instance catalysts."

While AECI continues to ponder the future

of its synfuel project, research goes on.

While refusing to give details of that research, Fisher says: KWe have a fully operational pilot plant. We will see improvements in technology by the time the full

plant goes up."

Other areas where AECI researchers are

busy — and again Fisher talks in general

terms — include agricultural chemicals, explosives and food additives.N

He says SA has an abundance of renewable resources that can be processed into

new chemicals.

"We must exploit renewable resources so

this technology can be exploited in Third

World countries, where these resources exist. We are unique in SA in that we have

Third World raw materials but First World

expertise, scientific knowledge and academic institutions already in place."

Fisher says many SA researchers are investigating the unique properties of natural

products, then synthesising them.

"People will find certain properties, take

put the molecule and synthesise it."

109
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SURVEY

Chemical Production Up

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 20

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text] PRODUCTION of industrial

chemicals is improving slowly

butstilllags behind the levels of

previous years.

On the basis of 1980 volume production being equal to 100, production in July this year — the last

monthfor whichofficial figures are

available — was 90. This was a

slight improvement on June's 89,5

and the 87,5 of July 1985, but well

down on production six years ago.

Seasonally adjusted, the July

1986 figure translates to 87,5, down

from June's 90,2 but still better

than the 84,9 of July 1985.

Figures from Stellenbosch University's Bureau for Economic Research (BER) show that in the

broader sphere of chemicals and

chemical products, volume production in the second quarter of 1986

was 99,1 — a sharp rise on the first

quarter level of 92.

On the same basis of 1980 being

equal to 100, employment in these

industries stood at 94,9 at the end of

the second quarter. However, companiessaid there was a sharp fallin

employment levels during the third

quarter.

After the first quarter of 1986,

the industry was working at only

80,7% of potential, well below full

production capacity levels. The

BER found only 27% of companies

in this field were working at full

capacity during the third quarter.

Wage increases in the chemicals

and chemical products sector continue to fall behind inflation. The

average pay increase between

March 1985 and March this year

was 14%.

Biggest increases were in the

Cape, where the average was 16%.

Transvaal employers gave 14,25%

and Natal 13,5%.

The national average hourly rate

at the end of March was R3.06. The

Cape was the best payer — at R3,18

— followed by the Transvaal's

R3.05 and Natal's R3.03.

110
Chemplast Import-Substitution Program

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 20

[Text] THE fluorocarbon division

(PTFE) of Chemplast Marc Etter

attributes 50% of its real growth

to making products locally which

had been supplied previously

from overseas sources.

Chemplast has placed a major

emphasis on convincing users of

PTFE components that processing-technology and equipment is

available locally to produce virtually anything made currently

by the company's overseas counterparts.

It claims to produce at its factory in Elandsfontein mouldings

as large and as complex as anywhere in the world.

It has machining facilites capable of providing a finished

component to the same high

standard as those obtained overseas.

Chemplast has embarked on

an import-substitution programme to provide time-saying,

reduced inventories, and elimination of import duties and

freight charges incurred on the

importation of finished components.

It also claims to provide the

local user with an identical product at a significantly cheaper

price.

Chemplast's success rate has

been such that many of its customers with overseas affiliates

are buying the company's components for export to their associate companies overseas.

The development and sales

management team of Chemplast

Marc Etter are confident thati

the potential for future develops1 ment in this area is so great that

they have adopted a policy of

examining the viability of local

production for any product

which can be allied to their current activities, in either material

or market areas — as long as it

uses equipment or expertise

available within the company.

Industries in which significant

inroads have been made in this

regard are electronic components, telecommunications, laboratory equipment and packaging.

Cementation Chemicals' Sales Up

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 20

[Text]

CEMENTATION Chemicals has achieved a 50%

increase in turnover this year in industrial chemical

sales.

Divisional director Des Louw attributes this partly

to regular large contracts awarded to the company.

He says: "We have a long-term contract to supply

the total requirements of disinfectants, detergents,

electrical cleaners, cleaning solvents, de-greasers,

deodorisers and sanitisers to a major mining house."

A division of Cementation (Africa Contracts), the <

company has been trading for 20 years, starting with

its well-known electrical cleaner FO 128 — specified

in Escom, Sasol and some mining contracts.

Louw says: "Our product range consists of more

than 100 tried and tested chemical products used by a

wide range of mining and industrial companies."

The company also specialises in formulating products for customers' specific requirements.

Louw says: "For example, we were approached by

a major canning manufacturer which hadpicked up a

resistant type of fungus in the cleaning tanks.

"We formulated a product which has a biocidal

efficiency as well as detergent properties, and

achieved a 99% kill count in five minutes.

"This product, Biocide, is now being used by all the

company's local plants and is being exported to the

UK.,r

' Cementation Chemicals also formulated Soldet, a

solvent detergent for general cleaning purposes specifically for the canning manufacturers' plants.

Another recent formulation by the company is FO

446, a floor-cleaner and emulsifiable de-greaser,

which is successfully being used in many municipal

bus shelters, manufacturing premises and in mines.

Ill
Optimistic Outlook. For Chemical Industry

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 20

[Text] THE industrial chemicals industry

could have predicted six months ago

that the economy and industry were

heading for a recovery, says Chris Orpen, head of Sentrachem's chemicals

and plastics divisions.

Orpen says chemical manufacturers

know traditionally which way industry

is heading.

"Industrial chemicals go into everything, so we're pretty early in the manufacturing chain. If industry picks up, we

know about it early.

"You can get a picture up to six

months before the statistics tell you the

economy is picking up. In the first six

months of this year, consumption has

been much better than we anticipated.

We could see an increase as early as

February/March."

Evidence of this is that in the first six

months of this year Sentrachem sales of

industrial chemicals rose 12% in volume

terms compared to the corresponding

1985 period.

The company's 1986 annual report

says of the industrial chemicals division:

"Demand for our broad range of organic

and inorganic chemicals has been very

strong. New production records are continually being set.

"Market development efforts over a

wide front, including speciality chemicals, activated carbon, ionexchange resins and water treatment products in

general, have produced excellent re?

suits."

The report predicts these high levels

of demand will continue during the 1986-

87 year.

Orpen says most Sentrachem plants

are working at close to capacity. Where

local demand is limited, production is

bolstered by export orders.

"We still have surplus capacity and

are exporting a lot. Most plants are

working at full-bore and we have a couple working full-out even without exports."

Industrial chemicals are, in Orpen's

vords, "the lubrificant of industry''. As

such, they find their way into most areas

of mining and manufacture — and the

household.

Sentrachem is a major producer of

the alcohol in cane spirit, vodka and gin.

This is one area, however, where demand has slackened recently as township violence has reduced consumption.

Derivatives from this alcohol include

paint solvents, printing inks, resins and

mining chemicals.

Other areas where Sentrachem is

heavily involved include ion exchange

resins for water purification and activated carbon for gold recovery and speciality chemicals for a wide range of

industries.

Management will shortly decide whether to go ahead with construction of a

RIOOm chlor-alkali plant at Chloorkop.

Says Orpen: "We are producing 30 000

tons of chlorine a year and buy in additional quantities to supply our share of

the market. The new plant will result in

closure of two old plants, replace purchased end-product and provide for

future growth."

Despite the tight conditions of recent

years, Orpen believes chemical manufacturers nave weathered the recession

well.

"The big boys have survived the last

few years well, although some small

producers have had a hard time."

He points out, however, that industrial

chemicals manufacture is not an area

that encourages people to rush in.

112
Hoechst Contributions Noted

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 20

[Text]

THROUGH its German parent, Hoechst

(SA) has access to much of the latest

technology from Europe.

Since commissioning its polyvinyl

acetate (PVA) plant in 1957, the company has been a familiar presence in

the industrial chemicals field.

This move towards local manufacture continued later, with production of

high-purity phosphoric acids at SA's

only such plant at Chamdor, near Krugersdorp.

Bulk process chemicals, both locally

manufactured and imported, are supolied for most industrial processes by

Hoechst's industrial chemicals division.

The textile, leather, oil and mining

industries use many of the company's

surfactants and auxiliaries. The resins

and pigments division supplies the

paint, adhesive and printing ink industries from its Durban resins plant.

The dyes division, which recently began production of custom-blended

shades at Hoechst's Mobeni plant, near

Durban, is a major supplier to the clothing and fashion industries.

Sasol Export Drive Viewed

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 21

[Text] A MAJOR export drive enabled Sasol

to increase chemical sales by 19%

during the 1986 financial year to a

record R473m.

Exports rose 40% to R140m, to make

up nearly one-third of total sales.

Sasol, with its coal-based technology, has exported chemicals since

1954, when it sold tar acids. Two years

later it began exporting high-melting-point paraffin waxes, still the

mainstay of its export business.

The company is presently expanding production to meet growing inter-:

national demand for hard waxes. A

sixth fixed-bed Fischer-Tropsch reactor being built at Sasol 1 will increase

production of speciality waxes by

30%. However, it faces growing competition on export markets from such

products as polyethylene, other waxes and microcrystalline waxes derived from crude oil.

Sasol's oxidised waxes compete

with natural waxes like carnauba —

from palm tree leaves — and waxes

from East German lignite.

Sasolchem MD Andre Bedeker says

the advent of Sasol 2 and 3 has boosted export volumes over several years

and enabled the company to enter

international markets with other products like acetone and MEK (methyl

ethyl ketone). Acetone is used overseas as feedstock in the manufacture

of methyl methacrylate, which is then

polymerised to form perspex. The

weak rand has helped make these

exports more competitive.

Sasolchem's main product — in

terms of both volume and turnover —

is ethylene. The chief building-block

of the petrochemical industry, it is

used mainly in production of polyethylenes, PVC and chlorocarbons like

aerosol propellants and dry cleaning

solvent.

Another product group, tar acids,

includes creosote. Coal tar is used to

impregnate cellulose fibre pipes.

113
Demand For Sulphuric Acid Rising

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 21

[Text]

IF you want to see how the economy is doing, look at sales of

sulphuric acid, says AECI director Mike Lancaster. .

It is a vital ingredient in industrial

activity, itself an indicator of growth,

Lancaster says.

"The economy can be gauged by

sulphuric acid sales. It's been quiet

but now it's picking up a little. The

market has been very unexciting in

the last few years, but this year there

is some rise in demand."

Chemical production at AECI Explosives & Chemicals is concerned

chiefly with primary chemicals and

derivatives which go to make up the

"block" chemicals that find their way

into industry.

Industries that have shown most

increased demand for AECI products

in-decent years include primary exporters such as pulp and paper producers, who have made a determined

assault on foreign markets.

"Base metals have also done well

over the last couple of years but that's

moderating now," says Lancaster.

Two areas causing AECI slignt

headaches at the moment are ammonia and resins. .

Plant problems are making it difficult to keep up with demand for ammonia, and there are plans to build a

new resins plant at Modderfontem.

Lancaster is cagey on the question

of imports and exports, although he

admits the high cost of production

locally makes it uneconomic to

achieve major export orders.

"When we do export, it's at a slight

profit. Most exports are to our neighbours, but some go further."

Several key raw materials must be

imported and Lancaster is confident

supplies will continue — in part because there is world over-supply and

also because AECI is a respected customer.

There is optimism, too, in AECI's

Chlor-Alkali division. Director Malcolm Weir says There are plans to

expand production at the Coalplex

plant to keep up with demand.

"In this division, we're talking chlorine and caustic soda, also dry-cleaning solvents and hydrochloric acid.

Business is doing very well in terms

of demand. Local caustic soda production, in fact, is insufficient for

local demand and 15 000t-20 OOOt will

be imported this year.

"We need to upgrade the Coalplex

plant and I expect that to be sanctioned by the end of the year," says

Weir.

Engineers' Shortage Seen As Threat

Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 31 Oct 86 p 21

[Text]

ANY decision to press ahead with

new synthetic fuel projects could be

crippled by a shortage of chemical

engineers.

SA Institute of Chemical Engineers

president Andre Engelbrecht says the

professional brain-drain has left SA

dangerously short of engineers.

Many of the immigrants who came

to SA during the chemical industry

boom of the Sixties and Seventies are

returning home.

Local graduates, emerging from

universities with degrees accepted

internationally, are increasingly taking their qualifications overseas.

Other engineers, deterred by the

lack of new investment in the 1980s,

have moved into other industries such

as mining.

Engelbrecht says: "If there is any

upturn in growth, or if any of the

synfuel projects come to pass, we

could have a serious shortage.

"It would absorb chemical engineers like a sponge."

Engelbrecht says overseas recruitment of engineers has almost dried

Universities, which once produced

only 50 graduates a year, "are now

churning out 150, but he believes "it

may have reached its peak and is

going down again".

The SA chemicals industry is developing few of its own technologies.

He says: "If technology is commercially available, it is quicker and

cheaper to buy from' overseas.

"SA's economic needs for chemical

products parallel those overseas, and

usually lags behind.

"So technologies we need to develop our products with are already

there."

Local research

Most local research is related to

synthetic fuels.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), AECI, Sasol and several universities are all

seeking new catalysts for synfuel,

while work is also being done on gas

synthesis and fermentation.

Other major research areas include mineral processing and beneficiation, water purification, and spontaneous combustion of discarded

coaL

114
/12828

CSO: 3400/709

Where there is research, itis related to specific needs.

' Because of the close contact between industry and universities, research becomes a problem-solving

process.

Engelbrecht says: "Industry has

ideas andtells the universities what it

needs. "It's a question of 'Here's the

problem, and here's my cheque-book'.

"Research has become concerned

more about solving individual problems than with basic research.

"The universities themselves think

this and that there is more scope for

basic research."

There is also the problem of income.

Industry can pay its researchers

more than universities, and so tends

to get many of the best people.

Once again, they are employed to

solve particular problems.

Engelbrecht says: "There is a lack

of quality people to do research.

"There is a shortage of chemical

engineers in the country, and universities are competing with industry for

them. Industry has more money and

so gets the best people."

115
MOSSEL BAY PROJECT PROGRESSES

Johannesburg SUNDAY TIMES (BUSINESS) in English 2 Nov 86 p .9

[Article by David Southey]

SOUTH AFRICA

[Text]

THE growing threat of ,

tighter sanctions appears to be the Government's chief reason for

going ahead with the

multi-billion-rand Mossel Bay gas project.

In spite of indications that

oil is likely to remain cheap

for some time to come, con- • ceptual engineering work for

the project is going according to plan.

The contract for the offshore work has been signed in

Cape Town between Mossgas, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Central Energy

Fund (CEF) and the Capebased Engineering Management Services (EMS).

Secret

This phase of the project is

expected to be completed in

March next year. Physical

implementation is expected

to start at the beginning of

1988.

CEF director of projects

Bob St Leger says each phase

of the project will be assessed at completion and the

results analysed before a decision is made on whether to

go ahead with the next. This;

implies that the Government j

would then at least have the !

option of ditching or delaying , work should circumstances j

demand- • . >• • j

CEF . (Pty) has acquired i

land near Mossel Bay — al- j

though at what price remains i a secret. i

Mr Leger tells Business ]

Times: "In terms of the feasi- !

bility study things are looking good. The conceptual

work now involves firming

up the ideas presented, determining costs more precisely,

discussing and ironing out

technical problems, drawing

up basic designs for the project and determing the method, of execution."

Mr St Leger says the Government is determined to

maximise South African content of the project, which will

give a significant boost to the

heavy-engineering and construction industries. Wherever possible, imported components will be financed by

supplier credits.

|1 Confident

Mr St Leger says the project is likely to be completed

in spite of projected falls of

$5 a barrel or more in world

oil prices.

"A study of oil over the

long term shows that if the

price stays low for long

enough, more and more users

will convert to oil and vice

versa if the price rises over a

long period.'

Mr St Leger is confident

that the gas reserves off Mossel Bay will last long enough

to maintain the project.

"We are very comfortable

with the known reserves," he

says.

/12828

CSO: 3400/708

116
ARMORED SECURITY VEHICLE DESCRIBED

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 10 Nov 86 p 4

[Text] EWRÖÄN-"% The t>ur-l

ban City Corporation has

placed an order for an

armoured security ,ye-i

hide,* costing i^bouj

R200 000, to rescue staff;

trapped at munidpal

installationsTownships

at times of unrest. . . -j

This; was confirmed"

yesterday by Durban'^

mäyötj Mr Stan Lange;;

who emphasised that it;

would be used solely for:

rescue*purposes and in no

ways as an offensive vehicle.; ,

Sold'commercially by a

company which produces!

military vehicles for the

South African Defence

Force, it is claimed it

could withstand landmine

blasts arid ammunition up

to y;B4mm bare,V ,

"It is riot a Casspir, it is

not a bus. It is an Ingwe,

the Zulu word for a crocodile, and is designed to

bring staff J»ut of- a,

troubled, area'if they are

cut offiand trapped," Mr

Lange >said in an interview^'*•

It was important that

staff wfere protected, or

they may be reluctant to

work,,in such areas, he

said. V; '

Mr Lange said the vehicle, Which was expected

to be delivered sometime

next year, would be painted white and would be

clearly distinguishable!

from police vehicles.

But he could not confirm a Sunday newspaper

report that Durban's

Tngwe'__w<3uld be fitted

with teargas for defensive

use, fire blankets, large

fire extinguishers, gas

masks, emergency lighting, spotlights, first aid

equipment, winches, an

axe and various tools.

"I don't know about all

that," he said. — Sapa.

■■]

/12828

CSO: 3400/708

117
SOUTH AFRICA

DOMESTICALLY BUILT REFLUX VALVE DESCRIBED

Johannesburg THE CITIZEN in English 13 Oct 86 p 21

[Text] A TWO-METRE di- on the disc, the valve

ameter tilting disc type proved to be absolutely

reflux valve the drop-tight during hylargest non-return valve draulic tests to a pressure

ever made in South Afri- of 1500 kPa. The valve

ca, has been manufac- was designed for a maxitured by Ainsworth En- mum working pressure of

gineering (Pty) Ltd, of lOOOkPa.

Denver, for the Drakensberg Pump Storage The disc shafts are

Scheme. made of high-tensile

stainless steel and run on

The valve, which has a bronze bearings. The two

100 percent local content, drop-weights are fully-ad- .

will be installed in the sec- • justable to permit variaond pipeline at the inlet tion ofthe closing charact"> the Kilburn Dam, the teristics of the valve.

lower reservoir of the ,

storage scheme. A number of similar

valves, in smaller sizes,

The valve weighs eight have been manufactured

tons which, because of by Ainsworth Enginthe tilting disc design, is eering over the past IS

less than half the weight years and all are still in

of a conventional non-re- successful operation.

turn valve, with a similar These valves offer one of

price reduction. With the lowest head loss co-effully-machined stainless ficients of any reflux

steel seats in the body and valve.

/12828

/

CSO: 3400/708

i

118
SOUTH AFRICA

BRIEFS

NEW ARMORED VEHICLES--High-level protection for use in riot or unrest areas

where conventional transport would not stand a chance of survival, is provided

by the recently commercialised Casspir Armoured Personnel Carrier. Prime

markets are considered in mining, industry and among security companies.

The vehicle, previously supplied only to the police and SA Defence Force,

certainly has a menacing look with its pneumatically operated steel roof,

flood lights, search lights and siren. Other multi-purpose control command

vehicles such as the surveillance truck sold by Avitronics are already

on the market. The latter can take photographs of people at night up to a

kilometre away, with a specialised video camera which works on a periscopelike mast. The Ingwe from Sandock-Austral, is an armoured security vehicle

used mainly on the mines but it could be used as a landmine-resistant school.

It has a four-wheel drive, six-cylinder turbo powered diesel engine, and

is used for carrying bullion, as an ambulance, for security or even mine

rescue work. Sandock-Austral is also planning a Boerebakkie with a landj- .

mine-resistant cab on a four-wheel drive. [Text][Johannesburg BUSINESS

DAY in English 3 Nov 86 p 10]/12828

PLAN TO HARNESS TECHNOLOGY UNVEILED--State-funded bodies are to co-operate

with private enterprise in assessing South Africa's industrial technology

needs. The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) yesterday

announced details of a process of technology transfer whereby new technology,

mostly from overseas, is adapted to local needs. To oversee the process, the

CSIR-controlled SA Inventions Development Corporation (Saidcor) will be

privatised. Control will be shared between the CSIR, the Industrial

Development Corporation (IDC) and private enterprise, which will provide

capital of between R50m and RIOOm. CSIR president Chris Garbers warned,

however, that SA was having problems in securing foreign technology because

of anti-SA sentiment and reduced scientific co-operation with other companies.

SA carried out only 0.37« of the world's research and development effort.

Technology transfer needs would be assessed by a system of "technology

auditing". Experts would examine a company's or an industry's technology

requirements and see what was available in-house, locally, or overseas.

Technology would then be taken and adapted to those requirements. [Text]

[Johannesburg BUSINESS DAY in English 29 Oct 86 p 1]/12828

CSO: 3400/709 - END -

119