## precision bias

## precision bias

### -
-

-
-

-
-
-

-

-
-
-
-60

40 20 0 80 1 00 1 20 1 40 1 60 1 80 50 >100 0 -50 -100 

## 1940 60 40 20 0 80 100 120 140 160 180 50 >10 0 0 -50 -100 

## 1980

60 40 20 0 80 1 00 1 20 1 40 1 60 1 80 50 >100 0 -50 -100 

## 1950 60 40 20 0 80 100 120 140 160 180 5 >10 0 0 -50 -100 

## 1990

60 40 20 0 80 1 00 1 20 1 40 1 60 1 80 50 >100 0 -50 -100 

## 1960 60 40 20 0 80 100 120 140 160 180 50 >10 0 0 -50 -100 

## 2000

60 40 20 0 80 1 00 1 20 1 40 1 60 1 80 50 >100 0 -50 -100 

## 1970
Note120

80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0 

### 1940 1980

1950 1990 

### 1960 2000 1970 120 80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0 120 80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0 120 80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0 120 80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0 120 80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0 120 80 40 0 160 200 240 280 320 75 >100 50 25 0



### Note

## t-n t, n .

## t t n

two

larger

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### \ [

### \ - - [

### \ - - [

## P t 

## P l 

## x= y P l 

## P b 

## ; P t 

## P l 

## P b 

## x y P it 

## P il 

## =

Pjl 

## Pjt 

## R ; i j

## P it 

## P il 

## P il 

## P ib 

## = Pjl 

## Pjb 

##     Pjt 

## Pjl



##  

; P it 

## Pjt 

## P il 

## =

Pjl 

## x= y P il 

## = Pjl 

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## =

Pjb 

##     : P t 

## P l rx 

## ; r P l 

## = P b 

## = y ; P it 

## P il 

## =

Pjl 

##   Pjt 

## P t 

## P l



### Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85

Journal of Official Statistics, 13

Principles of forecasting Forecasting: An appraisal for policy makers and planners Beyond six billion: Forecasting the world’s population Demography, 23 Journal of Official Statistics, 13

### Journal of the

American Institute of Planners, 43 Journal of Official Statistics, 13 Demographic Research, 6 Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67

Population and Development Review, 7 International Journal of Forecasting, 8 Frontiers of population forecasting Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89 Mathematical Population Studies, 5 International Statistical Review, 72 Frontiers of population forecasting European Journal of Population, 14

Journal of Forecasting, 3 International Journal of Forecasting, 2 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 142 Forecasting: Methods and applications Demographic Research, 17 Population Research and Policy Review, 15 Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 31 Demography, 21 International Journal of Forecasting, 8 Population Research and Policy Review, 26

### Journal of Planning Education and

Research, 27 Mathematical Population Studies, 5 Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82 Demography, 25 International Journal of Forecasting, 8 Demography, 40 State and local population projections: Methodology and analysis Alternative futures for changing landscapes. The Upper San Pedro River Basin in A rizona and Sonora Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78 Journal of the American Planning Association, 62 Applied demographics: A casebook for business and government Population Research and Policy Review, 17 Population Research and Policy Review, 26 Applied demographics: A casebook for business and government

International Journal of Forecasting, 12 Journal of the American Statistical Association, 49 Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66 Demographic Research, 11 Geographical Analysis, 39

# R ep r odu c ed wi th pe r mi ss i on of the c op y ri ght ow ne r . F u rthe r rep rodu ct i on p roh i b i ted wi thout pe rmi ss i on.