precision

bias

precision bias
-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-
60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 50 >100

1940

60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 50 >100

1980

60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 50 >100

1950

60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 5 >100

1990

60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 50 >100

1960

60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 50 >100

2000

60

40

20

0

80

100

120

140

160

180

-100 -50 0 50 >100

1970

Note
120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

1940 1980

1950 1990

1960 2000

1970

120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

120

80

400

160

200

240

280

320

0 25 50 75 >100

Note
t-n t,

n

.
t

t n

two

larger

\ [
\ [
\ - - [
\ - - [


P

t

P

l

x=yP

l

P

b

;

P

t

P

l

P

b

xy

PitPil=PjlPjtR;

ij
Pit Pil Pil Pib = Pjl Pjb

   

Pjt Pjl

 

;

Pit Pjt Pil=Pjl x=y Pil=Pjl Pib=Pjb

   

:

Pt Pl

rx; r Pl=Pb =y;

Pit Pil=Pjl

 

Pjt

Pt Pl

Journal of the

American Statistical Association, 85

Journal of Official Statistics, 13

Principles of forecasting

Forecasting: An appraisal for policy makers and planners

Beyond six billion: Forecasting the world’s population

Demography, 23

Journal of Official Statistics, 13
Journal of the

American Institute of Planners, 43

Journal of

Official Statistics, 13

Demographic Research, 6

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67

Population and Development Review, 7

International Journal of Forecasting, 8

Frontiers of population forecasting

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89

Mathematical

Population Studies, 5

International Statistical Review, 72

Frontiers of population forecasting

European Journal of Population, 14

Journal of Forecasting, 3

International Journal of Forecasting, 2

Journal of the

Royal Statistical Society A, 142

Forecasting: Methods and applications

Demographic Research, 17

Population

Research and Policy Review, 15

Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 31

Demography, 21

International

Journal of Forecasting, 8

Population Research and Policy Review, 26
Journal of Planning Education and

Research, 27

Mathematical Population Studies, 5

Journal of the

American Statistical Association, 82

Demography,

25

International Journal of Forecasting, 8

Demography, 40

State and local population projections: Methodology

and analysis

Alternative futures

for changing landscapes. The Upper San Pedro River Basin in Arizona and Sonora

Journal of the American Statistical

Association, 78

Journal of the American Planning Association, 62

Applied demographics: A

casebook for business and government

Population Research and Policy Review, 17

Population Research and Policy Review, 26

Applied

demographics: A casebook for business and government

International Journal of Forecasting, 12

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 49

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66

Demographic Research, 11

Geographical Analysis, 39
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