1 

# Technical Support Document

Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Redesignation Substitute 1997 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

Background

Evaluation

Conclusion



# April 2016

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Tr acie Donaldson, United States Environmental Protection Agency Region 6, State Implementation Section B (6MM-AB). 1445 Ross Avenue, Dallas, TX 75202-2733, 214-665-66332 Background
The EPA is proposing to approve a demonstr ation provided by Texas that the HoustonGalveston-Brazoria 1997 8-hour ozone nonattainmen t area (HGB area) has attained the revoked 1997 8-hour ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) due to permanent and enforceable emission reductions, and that it wi ll maintain that NAAQS for ten years from the date of the EPA’s approval of this demonstrat ion. The demonstration wa s provided to EPA in a report titled “Redesignation Subs titute Report for the Houston- Galveston-Brazoria 1997 EightHour Ozone Standard Nonattainment Area” (Redes ignation Substitute Report) submitted to EPA on August 18, 2015.

The determination that the area has attained the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS is based upon three years of complete, quality-assured and state-certified am bient air monitoring data that show the area has monitored attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS for the 2012–2014 monitoring period. Available data for 2015 shows that the area continues to attain the 1997 8-hour standard (http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/com pliance/monops/ozone_exceedance.pl). The determination that the area attained the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS due to permanent and enforceable emission reductions, and that it wi ll maintain that NAAQS for ten years from the date of the EPA’s approval of this demons tration is based on the EPA review of the demonstration provided by Texas and the evaluation of ozone monitoring data.
On July 18, 1997, the EPA promulgated an 8- hour ozone NAAQS of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), known as the 1997 ozone standard. For ease of communication, many reports of ozone concentrations are given in parts per bill ion (ppb); ppb = ppm × 1000. Thus, 0.08 ppm becomes 80 ppb or 84 ppb when rounding is considered. See 62 FR 38856 and 40 CFR 50.10. Under the EPA regulations at 40 CFR part 50, Appendix I, th e 1997 ozone standard is attained when the 3- year average of the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour average ambient ozone concentration is less than or equal to 0.08 ppm (up to 84 ppb).
On April 30, 2004, the EPA designated and classi fied the 8-county HGB area (consisting of Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris , Liberty, Montgomery and Waller counties) as a Moderate nonattainment area under the 1997 ozone st andard with an attainment date of no later than June 15, 2010 (see 69 FR 23858 and 69 FR 23951). On June 15, 2007, we received a request from the Governor of Texas seeking vo luntary reclassification of the HGB area from a Moderate nonattainment area to a Severe nona ttainment area under the 1997 ozone standard, which we approved on October 1, 2008 (73 FR 56983). 1 Subsequently, the State submitted the Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) and Attainment Demonstra tion (AD) SIPs for the HGB Severe area under the 1997 ozone standard. Thes e RFP and AD SIPs were approved on January 2, 2014 (see 79 FR 51 and 79 FR 57, respectively).

The fourth-highest daily ozone concentration over a 3-year period is called the design value (DV). The DV indicates the severity of the ozone pr oblem in an area; it is the ozone level around which a state designs its control strategy for attaining the ozone standard. A monitor’s DV is the

1 The attainment date for the HGB Severe nonattainment area is as expeditiously as practicable, but not later than June 15, 2019.3 fourth highest ambient concentra tion recorded at that monitor over the previous 3 years. An area’s DV is the highest of the design values from the area’s monitors.

The EPA revoked the 1-hour ozone standard on April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23951), and, on March 6, 2015, the EPA revoked the 1997 8-hour standard (80 FR 12264). As explained more fully in the March 6, 2015 rulemaking the EPA also adopte d a provision allowing states to seek a redesignation substitute for re voked standards. The regulations allow that if a redesignation substitute is approved the state may seek to ha ve “anti-backsliding” requirements for areas that were designated as nonattainment for the revoked standard shifte d to contingency measures if such action is consistent with sections 110( l) and 193 of the CAA (40 CFR 51.1105(b)(2)). The regulations authorize EPA to a pprove a redesignation substitute upon a showing by the state that:

1. The area has attained that revoked NAAQS due to permanent and enforceable emission reductions 2. The area will maintain that revoked NAAQS for 10 years from the date of the EPA’s approval of the showing.
The first criterion for a redesignatio n substitute is the same as tw o redesignation criteria found in CAA section 107(d)(3)(E)(i) and ( iii). The second criterion for a redesignation substitute is similar to the criterion for a maintenance plan which provides for maintenance of the NAAQS for at least 10 years after redesignation (C AA sections 107(d)(3)(E)(iv) and 175A). EPA provided guidance on the approach to evaluati ng state compliance with these provisions in EPA’s September 4, 1992 memo “Procedures for Pr ocessing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment” from John Calcagni. For this reason, EPA believes it is appropria te to consider that guidance when evaluating state co mpliance with the redesignation substitute requirements. (1992 redesignations guidance, www.epa.gov/ttn/oarpg/t5/memor anda/redesignmem090492.pdf).
On August 18, 2015, the Texas Commission on Envi ronmental Quality (TCEQ) provided the “Redesignation Substitute Report for the Housto n-Galveston-Brazoria 1997 Eight-Hour Standard Nonattainment Area” for use by the EPA in evaluating the request for approval of a redesignation substitute for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard ob ligations for the area. In this submission, Texas also requested that th e nonattainment new s ource review (NNSR) classification for the revoked 1997 ozone NAAQS would no longer apply to the area. This Technical Support Document evaluates whether the Texas Report supports a determination by the EPA that redesignation substitu te criteria in the above refere nced rule has been met for the HGB area and whether, if a redesi gnation substitute is approve d, NNSR could cease to apply for purposes of the revoked 1997 ozone standard.

Evaluation
(1) The area has attained the revoked NAAQS due to permanent and enforceable emission reductions. a.) Is the HGB area attaini ng the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS?

Table 1 contains the 8-hour ozone data fo r the HGB 1997 8-hour ozone nonattainment area monitors that show that the ar ea is currently attain ing the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, consistent4 with 40 CFR Part 50, Appendix H. This data is summarized in Table 2 and illustrated graphically in Figure 1.
Table 1: The HGB Area Fourth High 8-hour Ozone Average Concentrations and Design Values (ppm) for 2012-2014 2

Site Name and AQS Number 4 th Highest Daily Max Design Value (2012-2014) 2012 2013 2014 Seabrook Friendship Park 482011050 86 67 65 72

Houston Westhollow 482010066 81 77 70 76

Houston Deer Park #2 482011039 85 69 63 72 Houston North Wayside 482010046 75 70 62 69

Houston Monroe 482010062 85 74 65 74

Conroe Relocated 483390078 82 75 72 76

Houston East 482011034 83 69 66 72

Channelview 482010026 77 61 64 67

Lake Jackson 480391016 71 67 61 66 Baytown Garth 482011017 71 61 67 66

Park Place 482010416 77 79 66 74 Houston Croquet 482010051 79 79 67 75

Houston Aldine 482010024 75 74 68 72 Houston Bayland Park 482010055 77 81 67 75

Clinton 482011035 81 67 58 68 Northwest Harris County 482010029 82 80 63 75

2 These ozone monitors have remained in the same location for the duration of the monitoring period from 2012 to 2014. The TCEQ website includes monitoring data for the Texas Avenue site, but Table 1 here does not. Data from the Texas Avenue site is excluded because the site does not meet siting criteria required by 40 CFR Part 58 Appendix E. The TCEQ has requested NAAQS exclusion for the pollutants monitored at this site since 2002. The TCEQ ozone monitors and data are posted at https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgibin/compliance/monops/8hr_attainment.pl

.5 Manvel Croix Park 480391004 87 84 71 80
Lang 482010047 81 79 64 74

Table 2: Current 1997 8-hour Ozone NAAQS Design Values for the HGB Area

Years 8-Hour Ozone Design Value 2011-2013 87 ppb 2012-2014 80 ppb Preliminary 2013-2015 80 ppb

Figure 1: 8-Hour Ozone Design Values for the HGB Area

The air quality data provided by Texas is consiste nt with that found in th e quality assured data found in the EPA Air Quality System (AQS), ther efore, EPA proposes to find that the HGB area is meeting the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.6 b.) Are the air quality improvements in the HGB area due to permanent and enforceable emissions reductions?
Because Texas reasonably attributed the improveme nt in air quality to emission reductions which are permanent and enforceable, the EPA proposes to find that Texas has demonstrated that the observed ozone air quality improvement in the HGB area is due to permanent and enforceable reductions in emissions resulting from implem entation of the EPA approved SIP and Federal measures. The EPA approved SIP includes state a nd local measures that can be found in 40 CFR 52.2270.
Texas presented data to show the long term d ecrease in ozone concentrations in the HGB area and showing that this long term d ecrease in ozone levels can be attributed to a suite of nitrogen oxide (NOx) controls and volatile organic chemi cal (VOC) controls with a particular emphasis on control of highly reactive VOCs.
In making this demonstration, the State presented several sets of data. Fi rst, the State provided emissions inventory data for 2002 through 2011. Secondly, the State provided an ambient concentration trend analysis for ozone precursors (NO X and VOC) in the HGB area between 2002 and the period in which the standard was attained, 2012-2014. Finally, the State documented the VOC and NO X emission control measures that have been implemented in the HGB area over the past 25 years.
A. Emissions Reductions as Shown by Emissions Inventory (EI) Data
The attainment EI base year is 2012 because it is one of the three years used to determine the design value (DV) for the 2014 attainment year . 2012 emissions were compared to 2002 VOC and NO X emissions when the DV was 178 ppb, to show that emission reductions have occurred in the area, and have resulted in the ozone air quality improvement in the area. 2014 is the first three-year period demonstrating attainment. By 2011 (the most re cent year for EI data), NO X emissions were estimated to have droppe d by 30% and VOC emissions by 46% from 2002 levels.
These significant decreases resulted in the improv ement in ozone levels seen at the monitors. The emissions for both years were derived from periodic VOC and NO X emission inventories, which are prepared every three years. Base d on the estimated emissions, the TCEQ has documented several emission trends to show that permanent and enforceable emission controls in various source sectors are responsible for significant downward trends in VOC and NO X emission totals in the HGB area leading to atta inment. For a discussion of emission inventory preparation methods, see the discussion of th e preparation of the 2012 base year emission inventories below.

To demonstrate that VOC and NO X emissions decreased between one of the violation years (2002) and the attainment year (2014), the TCEQ has documented HGB’s VOC and NO X emissions for 2002 and 2011 for all anthropogenic s ource sectors. Table 3 lists these emissions for the 2002, 2005, 2008 PEI and 2011 EI.7 Table 3: HGB Eight-County Nonattain ment Area Historical Emissions

Emissions Source Category 2002 2005 2008 2011 VOC Emissions (tons per day or tpd)
Area 422.14 425.83 449.6 308.74 Non-Road Mobile 82.79 72.28 62.65 49.92 On-Road Mobile 115.34 106.58 96.37 85.05 Point 149.37 140.08 108.1 96.11
VOC Total 769.64 744.77 716.72 539.82
NO X Emissions (tpd)
Area 27.79 16.04 25.41 21.15 Non-Road Mobile 145.25 156.04 149.24 121.11 On-Road Mobile 322.67 260.98 190.58 213.57 Point 339.49 194.52 111.38 108.48
NO X Total 835.2 627.58 476.61 464.31

Based on the 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2011 HGB area emissions information provided by the TCEQ, the EPA concludes that VOC and NO X emission totals have significantly declined in the nonattainment area during the 2002–2011 period. These emission reductions have led to attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in this area. The EPA concurs with Texas’ conclusions that the emission controls, emissions inventories, and emi ssions trends support the conclusion that attainment in the area is due to permanent and enforceable emission reductions.
B. Impact of Emissions Controls Implementation: Trend Analysis
To assess the impact of emission control impl ementation, the TCEQ determined the VOC and NO X ambient concentration trends in the HGB area from 2000 to 2014. Annual maxima, annual 90 th percentile and annual average daily peak NO X values were analyzed. All three measures decreased markedly over the time period from 2000 to 2014, falling 40% (maximum), 29% (90 th percentile) and 27% (average). Stro ng downward trends in ambient NO X concentrations are evidence of the effectiven ess of emission controls.
The other major class of ozone precursors is VOC. Since the mid-1990s, the TCEQ has collected 40-minute measurements, on an hourly basis, of over 40 species of VOC using auto-GC instruments. The TCEQ focused on two prevalen t compounds, ethylene and propylene, that are associated with rapid and efficient ozone fo rmation. Since the majority of VOC production occurs along the Houston Ship Channel, the eight auto-GC instruments near the area were examined. Yearly geometric means were computed from valid ambient hourly measurements. The TCEQ calculated the geometric mean by taki ng the natural logarithm of each measurement, averaging these logs, and then calculating the an tilog of this mean log value. The geometric mean is a preferable statistic to median or ar ithmetic (ordinary) mean for evaluating the central tendency of data when the data are skewed, i.e., when the da ta are not symmetrically, or normally, distributed, but instead clustered ar ound extreme high or low values. A geometric mean is more robust than an ordinary average, in that its value is not grea tly influenced by one or8 a few very high or very low values. Many distri butions of pollutant measurements, especially VOC, in the HGB area are skewed.
Prior to 2004, only three of the eight monitors had enough valid data to calculate annual geometric mean ethylene. Generally, the geometri c mean ethylene concentr ations at all of the auto-GC monitors have decreased. Ethylene at the Channelview monitor (C15) steadily decreased until an increase in 2013 and then decr eased again in 2014. Concentrations at 50% of the monitoring sites studied saw small increases from 2013 through 2014; however, the overall trend from 2000 through 2014 is decr easing. This ambient data demonstrates the effectiveness of the State’s controls in reducing ethylene levels
C. Permanent and Enforceable Emissions Controls Implemented
A broad range of control measures have been im plemented for each emission source category. In section 3.2 of the Redesignation Substitute Report, Texas identified the permanent and enforceable measures that led to attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. Table 4 below from the report lists existing ozone control stra tegies that have emi ssions reductions in the attainment demonstrations for both the 1-hour and the 1997 8-hour ozone standards. These measures are permanent and enforceable and are included in the EPA approved SIP (40 CFR 52.2270). EPA approved the HGB 1-hour ozone a ttainment demonstration in 2006 (71 FR 52670, September 6, 2006) and the HGB 1997 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration in 2014 ( 79 FR 57, January 2, 2014).

Table 4. Existing Ozone Control Measures Applicable to the HGB Eight-County Nonattainment Area (from section 3.2 of the Redesignation Substitute Report)
Measure Description Start Date(s) Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds Emissions Cap and Trade (HECT) Program and Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds (HRVOC) Rules

30 Texas Administrative Code (TAC) Chapter 101, Subchapter H, Division 6 and 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter H, Divisions 1 and 2 Affects cooling towers, process vents, and flares, and establishes an annual emissions limit with a cap and trade for each applicable site in Harris County Seven perimeter counties subject to permit allowable limits and monitoring requirements Monitoring requirements began January 31, 2006 Cap and trade program implemented January 1, 2007 HECT cap incrementally stepped-down from 2014 through 2017 for a total 25% cap reduction

HRVOC Fugitive Rules 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter D, Division 3 More stringent leak detection and repair (LDAR) requirements for components in HRVOC service Additional components included in LDAR program: more stringent repair times, lower leak detection, and third-party audit requirements March 31, 20049 Measure Description Start Date(s) VOC Control Measures – Storage Tanks 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter B, Division 1 Requires controls for slotted guide poles and more stringent controls for other fittings on floating roof tanks, and control requirements or operational limitations on landing floating roof tanks Eliminates exemption for storage tanks for crude oil or natural gas condensate, and regulates flash emissions from these tanks January 1, 2009 Compliance with revised monitoring and testing requirements required by March 1, 2013

VOC Control Measures – Degassing Operations 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter F, Division 3 Requires vapors from degassing to be vented to a control device for a longer time period, and removes exemption from degassing to control for tanks with capacity of 75,000 to 1,000,000 gallons Clarification of rule and monitoring and testing requirements, additional control options, and notification requirements January 1, 2009

February 17, 2011

VOC Control Measures 30 TAC Chapter 115 Additional control technology requirements for batch processes and bakeries by December 31, 2002 Additional VOC measures adopted earlier for reasonably available control technology (RACT) purposes: general vent gas control, industrial wastewater, loading and unloading operations, general VOC LDAR, solvent using process, etc. (see Appendix D: Reasonably Available Control TechnologyAnalysis of the Houston-GalvestonBrazoria Attainment Demonstration State Implementation Plan Revision for the 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Standard adopted March 10, 2010 (2010 HGB AD SIP Revision) for more details) December 31, 2002 and earlier

VOC Control Measures – Offset Lithographic Printers 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter E, Division 4 Additional control technology requirements for offset lithographic printers

Revised in 2010 to limit VOC content of solvents used by offset lithographic printing facilities and to include smaller sources in rule applicability (see Appendix D of the 2010 HGB AD SIP Revision for more details) December 31, 2002 March 1, 2011 for major

sources March 1, 2012 for minor

sources

VOC Control Measures – Solvent-Using Processes 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter E Revised in 2011 to implement RACT requirements per control technique guidelines published by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Seven emission source categories in the HGB area: industrial cleaning solvents; flexible package printing; paper, film, and foil coatings; large appliance coatings; March 1, 201310 Measure Description Start Date(s) metal furniture coatings; miscellaneous metal and plastic parts coatings; and miscellaneous industrial adhesives (see Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Reasonably Available Control Technology Analysis Update State Implementation Plan Revision for the 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Standard adopted December 7, 2011 for more details)

Refueling – Stage I 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter C, Division 2 Captures gasoline vapors that are released when gasoline is delivered to a storage tank

Vapors returned to the tank truck as the storage tank is being filled with fuel, rather than released into the ambient air 1990

A SIP revision related to Stage I regulations was approved by the EPA, effective June 29, 2015 Refueling – Stage II 30 TAC Chapter 115, Subchapter C, Division 4 Captures gasoline vapors when a vehicle is being fueled at the pump

Vapors returned through the pump hose to the petroleum storage tank, rather than released into the air 1992

A SIP revision authorizing the decommissioning of Stage II vapor control equipment was submitted to the EPA on October 31, 2013. Facilities may continue operating Stage II until August 31, 2018. Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) Mass Emissions Cap and Trade (MECT) Program and Chapter 117 NOx Emission Standards for Attainment Demonstration Requirements 30 TAC Chapter 101, Subchapter H, Division 3 and 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter B, Division 3 and Subchapter C, Division 3 Overall 80% NOX reduction from existing industrial sources and utility power plants, implemented through a cap and trade
program
Affects utility boilers, gas turbines, heaters and furnaces, stationary internal combustion engines, industrial boilers, and many other industrial sources April 1, 2003 and phased in through April 1, 2007

NOX System Cap Requirements for Electric Generating Facilities (EGFs) 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter B, Division 3 and Subchapter C, Division 3 Mandatory daily and 30-day system cap emission limits (independent of the MECT Program) for all EGFs at utility power plants and certain industrial/commercial EGFs that also provide power to the electric grid March 31, 2007 (industrial/commercial EGFs) March 31, 2004 (utility power plants)

Utility Electric Generation in East and Central Texas 30 TAC Chapter 117, NO X control requirements (approximately 55 %) on utility boilers and stationary gas May 1, 2003 through May 1, 200511 Measure Description Start Date(s) Subchapter E, Division 1 turbines at utility electric generation sites in East and Central Texas NO X Emission Standards for Nitric Acid and Adipic Acid Manufacturing 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter F NO X emission standards for nitric acid and adipic acid manufacturing facilities in the HGB area November 15, 1999

Stationary Diesel Engines 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter B, Division 3 and Subchapter D, Division 1 Prohibition on operating stationary diesel and dual-fuel engines for testing and maintenance purposes between 6:00 a.m. and noon April 1, 2002

Natural Gas-Fired Small Boilers, Process Heaters, and Water Heaters 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter E, Division 3 NO X emission limits on small-scale residential and industrial boilers, process heaters, and water heaters equal to or less than 2.0 million British thermal units per hour 2002

Minor Source NO X Controls for Non-MECT Sites 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter D, Division 1 NO X emission limits on boilers, process heaters, stationary engines, and turbines at minor sites not included in the MECT program (uncontrolled design capacity to emit less than 10 tons per year) March 31, 2005

Texas Low Emission Diesel (TxLED) 30 TAC Chapter 114, Subchapter H, Division 2 Requires all diesels for both on-road and non-road use to have a lower aromatic content and a higher cetane number October 31, 2005 and phased in through January 31, 2006

TxLED for Marine Fuels 30 TAC Chapter 114, Subchapter H, Division 2 Adds marine distillate fuels X and A, commonly known as DMX and DMA, or Marine Gas Oil, into the definition of diesel fuels, requiring them to be TxLED compliant October 1, 2007 and phased in through January 1, 2008

Vehicle Inspection/ Maintenance 30 TAC Chapter 114, Subchapter C Yearly treadmill-type testing for pre-1996 vehicles and computer checks for 1996 and newer vehicles May 1, 2002 in Harris County May 1, 2003 in Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, and Montgomery Counties Texas Low Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Gasoline 30 TAC Chapter 114, Subchapter H, Division 1 Requires all gasoline for both on-road and non-road use to have a RVP of 7.8 pounds per square inch or less from May 1 through October 1 each year April 2000

Texas Emissions Reduction Plan (TERP) 30 TAC Chapter 114, Subchapter K Provides grant funds for on-road and nonroad heavy-duty diesel engine replacement/retrofit January 2002

Voluntary Mobile Emission Reduction Program Voluntary measures administered by the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC) (see Appendix F: Evaluation of MobileSource Control Strategies for the HoustonGalveston-Brazoria State Implementation Phase in through 201812 Measure Description Start Date(s) Plan (With Detailed Strategies), prepared for H-GAC by ENVIRON International Corporation, of the 2010 HGB AD SIP Revision) Federal Area/Non-Road Measures Series of emissions limits, implemented by the EPA, for area and non-road sources Examples: diesel and gasoline engine standards for locomotives and leaf-blowers Phase in through 2018

Federal On-Road Measures Series of emissions limits, implemented by the EPA, for on-road vehicles Examples: Tier 1 and Tier 2 vehicle standards, low sulfur diesel standards, National Low Emission Vehicle standards, and reformulated gasoline Phase in through 2018

Speed Limit Reduction 43 TAC Chapter 25, Subchapter B Five miles per hour (mph) below what was posted before May 1, 2002, on roadways where speeds were 65 mph or higher September 2003

California Standards for Certain Gasoline Engines California standards for non-road gasoline engines 25 horsepower and larger May 1, 2004

Transportation Control Measures Various measures in H-GAC’s long-range transportation plans (see Appendix F of the 2010 HGB AD SIP Revision for more details) Phase in through 2018

Voluntary Energy Efficiency/Renewable Energy Energy efficiency and renewable energy projects enacted by the Texas Legislature outlined in Section 3.3.5 : Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Measures (Redesignation Substitute Report) See Section 3.3.5 of the Redesignation Substitute Report

For emissions reductions not included in th e 1997 8-hour and 1-hour ozone attainment demonstrations Texas identified other perman ent and enforceable control measures. These

measures were:

• Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Com pounds Emissions Cap and Trade Program

• Mass Emissions Cap and Trade Program

• Tier 3 Federal Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel Standards

• New International Marine Di esel Engine and Fuel Standa rds for Oceangoing Vessels and Emissions Control Areas

We note that the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) have also helped reduce ozone levels in Houston a nd the eastern U.S. CAIR and CSAPR limited NOx emissions from electric generating units in many eastern states, including Texas. CAIR implementation ended in 2014 and CSAPR implemen tation began in 2015 (79 FR 71663, December 3, 2014). For more information on CAIR and CSAPR please see our De cember 3, 2015 CSAPR Update proposal (80 FR 75706).
In sum, the table above shows the breadth of cont rols that have been adopted and implemented in the HGB area. These controls have been im plemented over a period of decades. Texas has13 focused on the significant reductions that ha ve happened since 2002, demonstrating both NOx and VOCs have declined significantly. During th is same time period ozone levels have also declined. Table 3 shows th at both Federal Measures to cont rol on-road and off-road emissions and State instituted controls such as low emissi on diesel for marine vessels, additional storage tank controls and storage tank degassing controls have all contributed to these additional reductions. Additionally, we note that EPA has approved SIPs for the HGB area that document continuous emissions reductions due to permanent and enfo rceable measures for the 1-hour and 1997 8-hour ozone standards (70 FR 7407, February 14, 2005; 74 FR 18298, April 22, 2009; 79 FR 51, January 2, 2014). The EPA concludes that the reduc tions in ozone are due to a these permanent and enforceable measures.
(2) The area will maintain the revoked NAAQ S for 10 years from the date of the EPA’s approval of the showing.

Consistent with the 1992 redesi gnations guidance, Texas provid ed an attainment emissions inventory and projected future emissions invent ories. To demonstrate maintenance of the 1997 8- hour ozone standard, the TC EQ projected VOC and NO X emissions to 2028 and to several interim years, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026 and 2028. These emissions were compared to the 2012 attainment year emissions to show that emissions of NO X and VOCs, remain below the attainment levels for the entire demonstrated maintenance period.
In the August 18, 2015, ozone redesignation subs titute request, the TCEQ compared the VOC and NO X emissions for 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026 and 2028 for all major source sectors, and in total for the HGB nonattainment area. In its ozone maintenance demonstration, the TCEQ presented the NO X and VOC emission totals for the 2012 base year and all projection years for the HGB area. The TCEQ’s mainte nance demonstration shows that in 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023 and 2026, NO X emission totals for the HGB area are projected to be below the 2012 NO X emissions for the area, representing a 161 tpd decrease. VOC emissions totals are expected to remain relatively flat with an increase of 8.4 tpd. This slight VOC increase still represents a decrease from 2011 levels of 23.6 tpd or 4.4%.

NO X emissions in the HGB area are projected to decline by 39 per cent between 2011 and 2028. VOC emissions in the HGB area are projected to increase by approximately 1.4 percent between 2011 and 2028. Based on photochemical modeling analys es showing that the formation of ozone in the HGB area is more sensitive to NO X than to VOC emissions, the small increase in VOC emissions is expected to be much less si gnificant than the large decrease in NO X

. Based on this analysis, emissions in the HGB area are expected to remain at levels consistent with attainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard from 2014 through 2028.
The 2012 base year and the 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026 and 2028 future year EI summaries by source categories for the HGB area are shown in Table 5: HGB NO X Emissions by Source Category (tons per day) and Table 6: HGB VOC Emissions by Source Category (tons per day)

. Contributions from biogenic emissions were not included in the summary because this analysis was limited to anthropogenic sources.14 Table 5: HGB area NO X Emissions by Source Category (tpd)

Category 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Point Sources 98.5 119.67 127.39 127.71 128.03 128.35 128.56

Area Sources 21.91 22.52 23.23 23.61 23.47 23.50 23.59

On-Road Mobile Sources 159.08 124.64 82.96 61.06 48.94 40.24 37.04

Non-Road Mobile Sources 132.24 100.90 87.32 76.34 69.91 64.78 61.62

Total 411.73 367.73 320.90 288.72 270.35 256.87 250.81

Table 6: HGB area VOC Emissions by Source Category (tpd)

Category 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Point Sources 84.06 110. 72 115.02 115.65 116. 26 116.94 117.41

Area Sources 310.07 317.75 328.20 335.07 337.81 341.16 344.75

On-Road Mobile Sources 74.51 61.48 47.36 40.38 36.12 31.71 28.99

Non-Road Mobile Sources 44.01 38.81 33.51 30.89 30.05 29.84 29.93
Total 512.65 528.76 524.09 521.99 520.24 519.65 521.08

Trend analysis using the 2028 future year emi ssions shows an overall decrease of 152.49 tpd in combined NO X and VOC emissions for the HGB area. Th is net change includes a projected 8.43 tpd increase in VOC and a 160.92 tpd decrease in NO X from 2012 levels.
In general, growth in point and area source emissi ons are projected to be offset by the continued introduction of cleaner on road and off road vehicles.
The EPA proposes to conclude that the TCEQ has demonstrated maintenance of the ozone standard during the 10-plus year maintenance period for the HGB area through projections of VOC and NO X emissions that show that the emissions will remain below the 2012 attainment levels during the maintenance period.

D. The Effects of a Redesignati on Substitute Final Action in HGB Texas has requested that EPA c oncur that “...the relevant nonattainment NSR provisions no longer apply to the areas.” See, Cover letter for the HGB and Dallas Redesignation Substitute Submittals. Generally, if we approve a redesignati on substitute, the state may request to revise its SIP to revise or remove provisions for NNSR for the revoke d standard, provided that such action is consistent with CAA sections 110(l) and 193. See, 40 CFR 51. 1105(b)(2). If the EPA finalizes a redesignation substitute for the HGB area, EPA believes that a SIP revision in this particular case is not necessary because the oz one standards in question have been revoked and15 because of a provision in the Texas SIP which ch anges the designation of the area to what is listed in 40 CFR part 81. We believe a plain reading of this provi sion in the Texas SIP establishes an area’s classificati on and thus the related major source thresholds and offset ratios for Texas as part 81 is update d without further action by Texa s. Any other anti-backsliding provisions that are in the Texas SIP may only be changed through the SIP revision process. EPA believes that the following language in the Texa s SIP supports this anal ysis of an automatic updating of the ozone classification:

TAC Chapter 101 General Air Quality Rule s, Subchapter A: General Rules , §101.1. Definitions. (71) Nonattainment area--A defined region within the state that is designated by the United States Environmen tal Protection Agency (EPA) as failing to meet the national ambient air quality standa rd (NAAQS or standard) for a pollutant for which a standard exists. The EPA will desi gnate the area as nonattainment under the provisions of 42 United States Code, §7407(d). For the official list and boundaries of nonattainment areas, see 40 Code of Federa l Regulations (CFR) Part 81 and pertinent Federal Register notices. The designations and classifications fo r the one-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards in 40 CFR Part 81 were retained for the purpose of anti-backsliding and upon determination by th e EPA that any require ment is no longer required for purposes of anti-backsliding, then that requirem ent no longer applies.
NNSR Offset Ratios and Major Source Thre sholds are defined in TAC Chapter 116 Control of Air Pollution by Permits for New Co nstruction or Modificat ion, Subchapter A: Definitions, §116.12. Nonattainment and Preventi on of Significant Deterioration Review Definitions (19) Major Stationary Source a nd (20) Major Modification. Both definitions refer to Table 1 below.

TABLE I 3 MAJOR SOURCE/MAJOR MODIFI CATION EMISSION THRESHOLDS POLLUTANT designation MAJOR SOURCE SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OFFSET RATIO Tons/year tons/year minimum

OZONE (VOC, NOX) I marginal 100 40 1.10 to 1 II moderate 100 40 1.15 to 1 III serious 50 25 1.20 to 1 IV severe 25 25 1.30 to 1

Further, HGB is still subject to Nonattainment NSR for th e 2008 and 2015 Ozone Standards.

It should also be noted that when a new classification is in place, that, in and of itself, does not relieve sources in the area of their obligations under previously established permit conditions.

3 Only Ozone is included here16 Conclusion
The review of the Texas redesign ation substitute report found that Texas has demonstrated that:
(1) The HGB area has attained the revoked 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS due to permanent and enforceable emission reductions (2) The HGB area will maintain the revoked 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS for ten years from the date of the EPA’s approval of this demonstration.
EPA is proposing to approve the HGB redesi gnation substitute for the revoked 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. Upon final approval of th e redesignation substitute, the area’s NNSR classification will be determined by the next highest classification remaining for that area.