9-i 

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

9.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 9-2

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY ....................................................................... 9-2

9.2.1 Historical Shipments ............................................................................................ 9-2

9.2.2 Analyzed Equipment Classes and Lifetime Values ............................................. 9-3

9.2.2.1 Fixture Failure .................................................................................................. 9-3

9.2.2.2 New Construction/Renovation ......................................................................... 9-4

9.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS ...................................................................... 9-6

9.3.1 Base-Case Scenario .............................................................................................. 9-6

9.3.1.1 Base-Case Forecast Results ........................................................................... 9-10

9.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS ........................................................................................ 9-12

9.4.1 Shipments Scenarios .......................................................................................... 9-12

9.5 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 9-13

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 9-15

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9.2.1 Equipment Class Lifetime Assumptions................................................................... 9-3

Table 9.2.2 Growth Rates by Equipment Class ........................................................................... 9-5

Table 9.2.3 Percent of Failed Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Replaced by Another Metal 

Halide Lamp Fixture ............................................................................................ 9-6

Table 9.3.1 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Wattage Category ..................................... 9-7

Table 9.3.2 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Start Type ................................................. 9-7

Table 9.3.3 Total 70W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) ........................................................................................................... 9-7

Table 9.3.4 Total 250W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) ........................................................................................................... 9-8

Table 9.3.5 Total 400W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) ........................................................................................................... 9-9

Table 9.3.7 Total 1000W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) ......................................................................................................... 9-10

Table 9.5.1 Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 2015–2044 (Roll-Up 

Scenario) ............................................................................................................ 9-14

Table 9.5.2. Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 2015–2044 (Shift 

Scenario) ............................................................................................................ 9-14

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 9.2.1 Lifetime Distribution for 70/250/400W MH Fixtures ............................................. 9-4

Figure 9.2.2 Lifetime Distribution for 1000W MH Fixtures ....................................................... 9-4

Figure 9.3.1 70W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ............................................................. 9-11

Figure 9.3.2 250W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ........................................................... 9-11
9-ii

Figure 9.3.3 400W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ........................................................... 9-11

Figure 9.3.4 1000W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments ......................................................... 9-12
9-2 

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments of metal halide lamp fixtures (hereafter “fixtures” or “MHLF”) are key inputs 

to the national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments are 

also a necessary input to the manufacturer impact analysis, which the U.S. Department of Energy 

(DOE) conducts for its notices of proposed rulemaking (NOPRs). This chapter describes DOE’s 

methodology for projecting annual shipments and presents initial inputs and results for fixtures. 

In the shipments analysis, DOE developed a base-case shipment forecast for each MHLF

type to depict what would happen to energy use and consumer costs for the purchase and 

operation of fixtures in the absence of new and amended Federal energy conservation standards. 

In determining the base case, DOE considered historical shipments, emerging technologies, the 

mix of efficiencies sold in the absence of amended standards, and how that mix might change 

over time. To evaluate the effects of standards on fixtures, DOE then compared the base-case

projection with forecasts of what could happen if DOE promulgates amended standards (the 

standards case). DOE considered multiple shipments scenarios to characterize both the base- and

standards-case shipments. To determine the cumulative NES and NPV of standards, DOE 

compared forecasted shipments of a base to a standards case over the national impact analysis 

period, 2015–2044. 

The shipments model and the national impacts model are integrated into a single 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet accessible at 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/metal_halide_lamp_fixt

ures.html. This preliminary technical support document (TSD) chapter explains the shipments 

models. Section 9.2 presents the shipments model methodology for fixtures; section 9.3

describes the data inputs, historical shipments, base-case scenarios, and shipments forecasts; 

section 9.4 discusses the effects of proposed amended standards on the mix of fixture designs; 

and section 9.5 presents the shipments results for the different candidate standard levels (CSLs).

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY

In general, DOE followed a three-step process to forecast fixture shipments. First, DOE 

used a combination of historical fixture shipment data from U.S. Census Bureau data and metal 

halide lamp shipment data to estimate the total historical shipments of each fixture type 

analyzed. Second, DOE calculated an installed stock for each fixture in 2015 based on the 

average service lifetime of each fixture type. Third, by modeling fixture purchasing events, such 

as replacement and new construction, and applying growth rate, replacement rate, and emerging 

technologies penetration rate assumptions, DOE developed annual shipment projections for

2015–2044. 

9.2.1 Historical Shipments

DOE reviewed U.S. Census Bureau data from 1993 to 2001 for metal halide lamp 

fixtures1

. DOE compared the MHLF census data to data on historical MHLF shipments from the 

National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) from 1990 to 2008 taken from DOE’s 
9-3 

final determination for high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps published on July 1, 2010. 75 FR 

37975. DOE found a correlation between metal halide lamp fixtures and metal halide lamp 

shipments. From 1993 to 2001, the number of MHLF shipments on average represented 37 

percent of the amount of lamp shipments with a standard deviation of 3 percent. Using this 

relationship, DOE multiplied all of the metal halide lamp shipments from 1990 to 2008 by 37 

percent to estimate the historical shipments of metal halide lamp fixtures. 

9.2.2 Analyzed Equipment Classes and Lifetime Values

DOE forecasted annual shipments for all equipment classes. The shipments model 

analyzes all fixture types at CSLs that assign efficiency levels for each equipment class. In 

general, interior metal halide lamp fixtures tend to be lower wattage fixtures, and exterior metal 

halide lamp fixtures tend to be higher wattage fixtures. DOE assumed that interior and exterior 

fixtures have lifetimes of 20 and 25 years, respectively. Table 9.2.1 gives the assumed lifetime 

values for each MHLF equipment class. This table was also presented in preliminary TSD 

chapter 8. 

Table 9.2.1 Equipment Class Lifetime Assumptions

Representative Equipment Class Lifetime 

years

70 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 21.3

250 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 22.0

400 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 22.5

1000 Watt Metal Halide Lamp Fixture 24.5

In its shipments model, DOE considered several market segments (“fixture purchase 

events”) to develop estimates of annual shipments. These market segments correspond to the 

fixture purchase events that DOE used in the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) 

analyses (preliminary TSD chapter 8). These include fixture failure and new 

construction/renovation. DOE used these purchasing assumptions to develop the fixture

shipment forecasts.

9.2.2.1 Fixture Failure

For those consumer purchases triggered by a fixture failure, DOE assumed that the 

consumer will purchase a fixture identical to the one that has retired, if it is available. If in the 

standards case, the base-case fixture design was not standards-compliant (and therefore 

unavailable as a replacement option), then DOE assumed consumers will purchase a new, 

standards-compliant metal halide lamp fixture from the same equipment class with comparable 

light output. 

DOE established the timing of fixture replacements in response to fixture failure by 

tracking fixture shipments and then predicting when these fixtures are expected to retire based on 

their service lifetime. DOE recognizes that fixture lifetimes vary, but was unable to identify an 

industry consensus on failure distributions for different fixture designs. For the preliminary 

analyses, DOE used two Weibull distributions to determine the time until failure of metal halide 

lamp fixtures in each of the equipment classes. Figure 9.2.1 and Figure 9.2.2 give the 
9-4 

probabilities of fixtures failing at a given age for the 70W/250W/400W and 1000W equipment 

classes, respectively.

Figure 9.2.1 Lifetime Distribution for 70/250/400W MH Fixtures 

Figure 9.2.2 Lifetime Distribution for 1000W MH Fixtures 

DOE invites additional comment on the distribution of expected failure rates throughout 

fixture lifetimes. 

DOE calculated average fixture service lifetimes by dividing the average fixture lifetime 

in hours (established in the LCC) by the average annual operating hours. As noted in the 

preliminary TSD chapter 8 and Table 9.2.1, the service life in the 70W, 250W, 400W, and 

1000W equipment classes are assumed as approximately 21.3, 22.0, 22.5, and 24.5 years, 

respectively. 

9.2.2.2 New Construction/Renovation 

DOE produced initial shipment estimates due to new construction and renovation by 

deriving growth rates for each equipment class. For several equipment classes, DOE research 

indicated that the fixtures market is moving in a particular direction. In such instances, DOE 

adjusted its forecasted growth rates for particular fixture types accordingly. When historical 

shipments reaching as far back as a fixtures’ lifetime was available, DOE calculated new 

construction shipments as a percentage of the previous years’ stock. When such historical 

information was not available, DOE calculated new construction shipments as a percentage of 

the previous years’ shipments. Table 9.2.2 gives the assumed growth rates for all equipment 

classes. 

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Probability of Failure

Age of Fixture

70/250/400W Lifetime Distribution

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Probability of Failure

Age of Fixture

1000W Lifetime Distribution
9-5 

Table 9.2.2 Growth Rates by Equipment Class

Year 70W 250W 400W 1000W

2015 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2016 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2017 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2018 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

2019 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.0%

2020 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.0%

2021 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.0%

2022 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0%

2023 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0%

2024 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0%

2025 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%

2026 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0%

2027 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%

2028 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

2029 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

2030 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0%

2031 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0%

2032 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0%

2033 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0%

2034 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 2.0%

2035 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0%

2036 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0%

2037 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0%

2038 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%

2039 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0%

2040 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0%

2041 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0%

2042 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0%

2043 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0%

2044 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0%

Additionally, DOE considered emerging technologies that will erode future MHLF 

shipments. Table 9.2.3 gives the percentage of metal halide lamp fixtures failing in a given year 

that will be replaced by another metal halide lamp fixture. 
9-6 

Table 9.2.3 Percent of Failed Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Replaced by Another Metal 

Halide Lamp Fixture

Year 70W 250W 400W 1000W

2015 98.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2016 96.0% 99.0% 99.0% 100.0%

2017 94.0% 98.0% 98.0% 100.0%

2018 92.0% 97.0% 97.0% 100.0%

2019 90.0% 96.0% 96.0% 100.0%

2020 88.0% 95.0% 95.0% 100.0%

2021 86.0% 93.5% 93.5% 100.0%

2022 84.0% 92.0% 92.0% 100.0%

2023 82.0% 90.5% 90.5% 98.5%

2024 80.0% 89.0% 89.0% 97.0%

2025 78.0% 87.5% 87.5% 95.5%

2026 76.0% 86.0% 86.0% 94.0%

2027 74.0% 85.5% 85.5% 92.5%

2028 72.0% 84.0% 84.0% 91.0%

2029 70.0% 83.0% 83.0% 89.5%

2030 68.0% 81.9% 81.9% 88.0%

2031 66.0% 80.8% 80.8% 86.5%

2032 64.0% 79.7% 79.7% 85.0%

2033 62.0% 78.6% 78.6% 83.5%

2034 60.0% 77.5% 77.5% 82.0%

2035 58.0% 76.4% 76.4% 80.5%

2036 56.0% 75.3% 75.3% 79.0%

2037 54.0% 74.2% 74.2% 77.5%

2038 52.0% 73.1% 73.1% 76.0%

2039 50.0% 72.0% 72.0% 74.5%

2040 48.0% 70.9% 70.9% 73.0%

2041 46.0% 69.8% 69.8% 71.5%

2042 44.0% 68.7% 68.7% 70.0%

2043 42.0% 67.6% 67.6% 68.5%

2044 40.0% 66.5% 66.5% 67.0%

9.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS

This section describes the base-case scenario DOE employed in its analysis and presents 

the base-case forecasts for each fixture type along with historical fixture shipments data. 

9.3.1 Base-Case Scenario

DOE reviewed U.S. Census Bureau data from 1993 to 2001 for metal halide lamp 

fixtures. DOE requested historical MHLF shipments from NEMA, but was unable to obtain the 

data.

To develop the historical MHLF shipment data, DOE compared the MHLF census data to 

historical data on metal halide lamp shipments from NEMA from 1990 to 2008 taken from 

DOE’s final determination for HID lamps. 75 FR 37975 (July 1, 2010). 

DOE found a correlation between MHLF and metal halide lamp shipments. From 1993 to 

2001 the number of MHLF shipments on average represented 37 percent of the number of lamp 
9-7 

shipments with a standard deviation of 3 percent. Using this relationship, DOE multiplied all of 

the metal halide lamp shipments from 1990 to 2008 by 37 percent to estimate the historical

shipments of metal halide lamp fixtures. 

For 2008 lamp data, DOE has lamp shipment estimates per wattage group low (149W 

and under), medium (150W to 500W) and high (501W and above). Table 9.3.1 provides the 

2008 metal halide lamp shipments by wattage classification. DOE applied this distribution of 

shipments per wattage group to fixtures for historical estimates as well.

Table 9.3.1 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Wattage Category 

Wattage Group Wattage Range Portion of Metal Halide Lamp Shipments

Low 1–149W 23%

Medium 150W–500W 65%

High 501W and above 12%

For 2008 lamp data, DOE has lamp shipment estimates per wattage group low, medium 

and high and by lamp start type (probe- and pulse-start). Table 9.3.2 provides the 2008 metal 

halide lamp shipments by start type. DOE used this distribution as a reference point. Since pulsestart metal halide technology was not commercialized until the mid 1990s, DOE tailored 

historical shipment estimates by technology. DOE factored in both EISA 2007 and other local 

laws enacted prior to EISA 2007 that limited and in some cases prohibited medium wattage 

probe-start metal halide fixture installations and sales. DOE assumed that the portion of probestart fixtures would decline post 2008. 

Table 9.3.2 2008 Metal Halide Lamp Shipments by Start Type 

Start Type Low Wattage

(1–149W)

Low Wattage

(150–500W)

Low Wattage

(501W+)

Probe-Start 1% 52% 11%

Pulse-Start 22% 13% 1%

Table 9.3.3 through Table 9.3.7 provides estimated historical MHLF shipments estimates 

for the entire U.S. market. “Sub-baseline” refers to metal halide lamp fixtures using a ballast that 

is less efficient than the standard base case. The “baseline” refers to the base case ballast 

(typically pulse-start). 

Table 9.3.3 Total 70W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) 

Year Sub-Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 EL3 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 157

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 182

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 208

1994 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 248

1995 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 299

1996 90% 10% 0% 0% 0% 330

1997 85% 15% 0% 0% 0% 376

1998 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 439

1999 75% 25% 0% 0% 0% 516

2000 70% 30% 0% 0% 0% 521

2001 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 521
9-8 

2002 75% 25% 0% 0% 0% 536

2003 20% 80% 0% 0% 0% 547

2004 10% 90% 0% 0% 0% 567

2005 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 606

2006 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 624

2007 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 628

2008 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 582

2009 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 596

2010 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 612

2011 0% 97% 2% 1% 0% 628

2012 0% 96% 2% 2% 0% 645

2013 0% 96% 2% 2% 0% 661

2014 0% 95% 3% 2% 0% 678

2015 0% 95% 3% 2% 0% 695

Table 9.3.4 Total 250W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) 

Year Sub-Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 EL3 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 343

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 331

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 385

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 439

1994 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 523

1995 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 631

1996 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 697

1997 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 794

1998 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 936

1999 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2000 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2001 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,100

2002 90% 10% 0% 0% 0% 1,130

2003 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 1,154

2004 70% 30% 0% 0% 0% 1,196

2005 60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 1,278

2006 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 1,318

2007 40% 60% 0% 0% 0% 1,326

2008 30% 70% 0% 0% 0% 1,227

2009 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,258

2010 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,292

2011 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,326

2012 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,361

2013 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 1,396

2014 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 1,431

2015 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 1,466
9-9 

Table 9.3.5 Total 400W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) 

Year Sub-Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 EL3 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 343

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 331

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 385

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 439

1994 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 523

1995 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 631

1996 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 697

1997 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 794

1998 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 936

1999 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2000 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,088

2001 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1,100

2002 90% 10% 0% 0% 0% 1,130

2003 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 1,154

2004 70% 30% 0% 0% 0% 1,196

2005 60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 1,278

2006 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 1,318

2007 40% 60% 0% 0% 0% 1,326

2008 30% 70% 0% 0% 0% 1,227

2009 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,258

2010 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,292

2011 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,326

2012 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 1,361

2013 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 1,396

2014 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 1,431

2015 0% 98% 1% 1% 0% 1,466
9-10

Table 9.3.6 Total 1000W Estimated Historical Metal Halide Lamp Fixture Shipments 

(thousands) 

Year Sub-Baseline Baseline EL1 EL2 Total

1990 100% 0% 0% 0% 199

1991 100% 0% 0% 0% 183

1992 100% 0% 0% 0% 213

1993 100% 0% 0% 0% 243

1994 20% 80% 0% 0% 290

1995 16% 84% 0% 0% 350

1996 12% 10% 0% 0% 386

1997 8% 92% 0% 0% 440

1998 4% 96% 0% 0% 513

1999 2% 98% 0% 0% 603

2000 0% 100% 0% 0% 603

2001 0% 100% 0% 0% 609

2002 0% 100% 0% 0% 626

2003 0% 100% 0% 0% 639

2004 0% 100% 0% 0% 663

2005 0% 100% 0% 0% 708

2006 0% 100% 0% 0% 730

2007 0% 100% 0% 0% 734

2008 0% 100% 0% 0% 680

2009 0% 99% 1% 0% 697

2010 0% 99% 1% 0% 716

2011 0% 98% 2% 0% 734

2012 0% 98% 2% 0% 754

2013 0% 98% 2% 0% 773

2014 0% 97% 3% 0% 792

2015 0% 97% 3% 0% 812

9.3.1.1 Base-Case Forecast Results

Figure 9.3.1 through Figure 9.3.4 present the base-case fixture shipments forecasts from 

2015–2044, modeled from the installed stock (based on historical shipments) and growth rates as 

explained in section 9.2.2.2. 

Because DOE forecasts lower future growth rates in the fixture marketplace than are 

evidenced in historical shipments; replacements of initial stock make up a relatively large share 

of the total number of fixtures shipments in DOE’s forecast. Therefore as the initial stock of 

fixtures reach the end of their lifetime and are replaced, a slight increase in replacement 

shipments emerges that mimics the shape of the initial growth in the industry. This pattern is 

repeated throughout the analysis period as subsequent generations of replacement fixtures also 

reach the ends of their lifetimes and are in turn replaced. This would be even more dramatic if 

DOE did not adjust for technology-induced retrofits, as explained in section 9.2.2.2. This pattern 

in shipments also reflects DOE assumptions about the distribution of fixture lifetimes (section 

9.2.2.1). 
9-11

Figure 9.3.1 70W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

Figure 9.3.2 250W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

Figure 9.3.3 400W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

70 Watt Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

250 Watt Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

400 Watt Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1

CSL2
9-12

Figure 9.3.4 1000W Equipment Class Fixture Shipments

9.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS

9.4.1 Shipments Scenarios

To characterize consumer behavior in the standards case, DOE considered many 

characteristics that consumers take into account when purchasing their MH systems. 

Specifically, DOE regarded system price and system energy consumption as two key drivers of 

consumer purchases. 

DOE developed two sets of two shipments scenarios to characterize consumers that may 

weigh these factors differently. To evaluate a standards case, DOE modeled a standards-case

scenario and compared it to the base case. 

The standards-case scenarios for fixtures includes roll-up and shift scenarios. The roll-up 

scenario represents a standards case in which all equipment efficiencies in the base case that do 

not meet the standard would roll up to meet the new standard level. Consumers in the base-case 

purchase fixtures above the standard level are not affected as they are assumed to continue to 

purchase the same base-case metal halide lamp fixture in the roll-up scenario. The roll-up 

scenario characterizes consumers primarily driven by the first-cost of the analyzed equipment. In 

a roll-up scenario, DOE assumes consumers will buy the first standard-compliant MH system 

available. In contrast, in a shift scenario, DOE assumes consumers seek to shift to an efficiency

level that keeps their purchase the same number of efficiency levels above the baseline as in the 

base case. The shift scenario models a standards case in which all base-case consumer purchases 

are affected by the standard (whether their base-case efficiency is below the standard). In this 

scenario, any consumer may purchase a more efficient fixture. As the standard level increases, 

market share incrementally accumulates at the highest CSL because it represents “max tech” 

(i.e., moving beyond it is impossible given available technology options). The shift scenario 

characterizes consumers primarily concerned with system energy consumption, and reflects an 

upper bound scenario. 

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1,000 Watt Base-Case Shipments

Baseline

CSL1
9-13

In either the roll-up or shift scenario consumers will attempt to buy a fixture from the 

same equipment class as their previously demanded system. These pairs of scenarios (roll-up and 

shift) create a total of two standards-case scenarios.

For its analysis, DOE evaluated the principal events that prompt fixture purchases: 

(1) fixture failure/replacement; and (2) new construction/renovation. DOE assumed that all 

replacement fixture shipments were due to fixture failure, and all new fixture shipments were 

considered renovation or new construction. 

9.5 RESULTS

The following tables show the cumulative shipments forecasts for the various candidate 

standard levels. DOE’s forecasts of the resultant stock forecasts for the various candidate 

standard levels over time and by scenario are presented in preliminary TSD chapter 10. 

Quantities of fixture shipments depend on the occurrence of the fixture purchasing 

events: fixture failure/replacement, and new construction/renovation. As discussed earlier, 

instead of using each particular fixture design’s individual lifetime to time fixture replacements, 

DOE uses the same fixture lifetime assumptions for all fixture designs within a given equipment 

class. For this reason, the rate of fixture replacement does not change between different 

shipments scenarios. 

Table 9.5.1 and Table 9.5.2 show the cumulative shipments impacts caused by each of 

the standards-cases (column labels) out to 2044 for both shipments scenarios (Roll-Up and 

Shift). CSL levels in the first column indicate the equipment CSL. As discussed earlier, 

quantities of fixture shipments in the standards-case are based on fixture replacement rates and

shipments due to new construction/renovation. However, because all fixtures within a particular 

equipment class are assumed to have the same lifetime, fixture replacement rates in the base case 

and standards-case are equal. In addition, because the fixture lifetime never varies within a 

particular market sector, fixture replacement rates are equal in the base case and standards case. 

The only aspects that do vary are the distribution of fixtures by efficiency levels. 

Note that cumulative shipments impacts are different from impacts on the stock, because 

of fixture replacements over time. Impacts on the efficiency distributions in the fixture stock are 

addressed in the preliminary TSD chapter 10. 
9-14

Table 9.5.1 Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 2015–2044 (Roll-Up

Scenario) 

CSL

Scenario 

Selected

Fixture

Equipment

Class

Shipments at Equipment CSL for CSL Scenario Chosen

CSL

1 2 3 4

1 70W 19,320,226 533,819 0 0

250W 46,787,496 617,392 0 0

400W 46,787,496 617,392 0 0

1000W 26,199,927 0 0 0

TOTAL 139,095,146 1,768,603 0 0

2 70W 0 19,854,045 0 0

250W 0 47,404,888 0 0

400W 0 47,404,888 0 0

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 140,863,749 0 0

3 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 47,404,888 0

400W 0 0 47,404,888 0

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 114,663,822 0

4 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 0 47,404,888

400W 0 0 0 47,404,888

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 19,854,045 94,809,777

Table 9.5.2. Cumulative Fixture Shipments by Standard Level, 2015–2044 (Shift Scenario)

CSL

Scenario 

Selected

Fixture

Equipment

Class

Shipments at Equipment CSL for CSL Scenario Chosen

CSL

1 2 3 4

1 70W 18,519,497 800,729 533,819

250W 46,170,104 617,392 617,392 0

400W 46,170,104 617,392 617,392 0

1000W 25,216,175 983,752 0 0

TOTAL 136,075,881 3,019,265 1,768,603 0

2 70W 0 18,519,497 1,334,548 0

250W 0 46,170,104 617,392 617,392

400W 0 46,170,104 617,392 617,392

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 137,059,633 2,569,332 1,234,784

3 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 46,170,104 1,234,784

400W 0 0 46,170,104 1,234,784

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 112,194,253 2,469,569

4 70W 0 0 19,854,045 0

250W 0 0 0 47,404,888

400W 0 0 0 47,404,888

1000W 0 26,199,927 0 0

TOTAL 0 26,199,927 19,854,045 94,809,777
9-15

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Census Bureau. Manufacturing, Mining, and Construction Statistics. Current 

Industrial Reports, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts, MQ335C. 2008. (Last accessed September 

1, 2010). <http://www.census.gov/mcd/>