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# ARGONN E NATIONA LLABORATOR Y 970 0 SOLTI H CAS S AVENUE , ARQOW , lllNoi s 6045 9 TdEpk>\ c512/972 - 899 A
Marc h19 , 19P. 5
Dr . Michae l Rutte r Departmen t o f Psycholog y Institut e o f Psychiatr y DeCrespign yPar k London , SE 5 8A F Enelan d
Dea r Dr . Rutter :

I hav e bee n aske d b yth e peopl e i n th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency' s (EPA ) Offic e o f Ai r Qualit yPlannin g and Standard s t o tal k t o yo u abou t a n importan t matter .

A P yo u ma yknow , the EP Ai s charge d b yth e Clea n Ai r Ac t wit hsettin g an d revisin g Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit yStandard s (NAAQS ) fo r selecte d pollutants , a t level s sufficien t t o protec t th e publi c healt hwit han adequat e margi n o f safety . Th e scientifi c base s fo r thes e standard s ar e presente d an d reviewe d i n criteri a documents . A s on e aspec t o f th e revie wprocess , EP A assesse s healt hrisk s b yidentifyin g th e mos t sensitiv e population s fo r eac h pollutan t an

d estimatin g probabilisticall yth e number s o f peopl e i n th e popu lation s wh o ma ysuffe r eac ho f variou s well-define d advers e healt heffect s attributabl e t o th e pollutant . I t i s believe d tha t informatio n abou t th e healt hrisk s associate d wit hvariou s potentia l standard s wil l ai d th e EP A administrato r i n selectin g a standar d that , i n hi s judgment , protect s th e publi c healt hwit han adequat e margi n o f safety .

Becaus e th e ris k estimate s tha t EP Aseek s ar e ofte n base d i n par t o n dose-respons e relationship s an d lea d exposur e estimate s whic har e uncertain , i t i s necessar yt o mak e probabilit yjudgment s abou t relevan t dose-respons e function s base d o n th e availabl e evidenc e and t o probabilisticall yestimat e lea d exposur e unde r alternativ e NAAQS . Obtainin g th e healt hris k estimate s the n involve s combinin g dose-respons e an d exposur e probabilit yestimates . Th e EP Abelieve s tha t i t i s importan t an d necessar yt o us e th e scien
tifi c judgment s o f th e bes t and most knowledgeabl e peopl e t o extrapolat e fro m th e availabl e dat a t o th e neede d dose/respons e functions . Th e extrapolatio n i s no t certai n an d i t depend s o n one' s interpretatio n o f th e literature . Thus , differen t peopl e wil l hav e different judgments . Fo r eac hhealt heffec t w e inten d t o obtai n the . probabilisti c judgment s o f fiv e peopl e t o sampl e th e rang e o f respecte d opinions . Th e mode l fo r estimatin g risk s wil l no t merg e thes e judgment s int o a singl e averag e judgment , bu t rathe r wil l estimat e th e rang e o f risk s base d o n th e rang e o f judgments . Thi s wil l sho wtli e EP A administrato r a rang e o f ris k estimate s base d o n a rang e o f judgments . l*.' e wil l als o b e abl e t o sho wsom e o f th e source s o f th e disagreements . Indeed , a sid e benefi t tha t w e expec t fro mthi s exercis e i s t o hel p identif ysource s o f greates t disagreement .

U.S
. DEPARTMEN To l E\ER< H \ T k lhi \ ERSIT VofG-ii cAg oP. 3

Dr . M . Rutte r 2 Marc h19 , 198 5

Based on th

e evidenc e in th

e lea d criteri a document , tw o population s have been identifie d a s being mos t susceptibl e t o th e effect s o f lea

d intoxi
cation . On e i s childre n fro mbirt hthroug

hth e sevent hbirthdayan d th e othe r i s pregnan t wome n or , mor e precisely , th e fetuse s being carried b yth e pregnan t women . Anumbe r o f advers e healt heffect s have been identifie d fo r whic hw e woul d lik e t o estimat e dose-respons e functions . Becaus e o f your experienc e an d knowledg e o f lea d an d it s possibl e neurologica l effects , we woul d like t o invit e you t o wor k wit hu s o n thi s matte r an

d serve , i f yo u will , a s a n anonymou s exper t specificall yo n lead
induce d I Q decrement s among children . Whil e you r participatio n i n the stud y wil l be acknowledged , your judgment s wil l no t b e identifie d wit hyour name . The committmen t o

n you r par t woul d b e t o spen

d approximatel y1-1/ 2 day s wit hmysel f an

d Dr . TomWallste n fro mthe Universit yo f Nort hCarolina . W e would , o f course , do th e traveling an

d woul d like to mee t wit hyou o n tw o occasion s in a'3-da yperiod . O

n th e firs t da

yw e woul d familiariz e yo u wit h th e proces s o f judgmenta l probabilit yencoding , discus s th e relevan t liter
atur e o n lea d healt heffects , obtai n you r initia l judgments , an d explai n ho

w your judgment s woul d b e used in th

e ris k assessmen t process . O n th e secon d cay , w e woul d refine your judgments . The firs t meeting woul d requir e abou t 6
- 7 hour s o f you r time , an d the secon

d meeting woul d requir e abou t 2- 3 hours . I W

Afte r returning t o th e U.S. , w e woul d put togethe r a packe t o f infor
matio n abou t your judgment s an d send , i t to yo u fo r your revie w(an d revision , a s needed ) a s par t o f the proces s o f finalizing your probabilisti c judgments . T o hel p you plan , i t i s our hop e t o b e abl e to visi t yo u aroun d the en

d o f April . I t woul d probabl yb e bes t i f w e coul d mee t wit hyou o n Tuesday , Apri l 3 0 an

d Thursday , Ma

y2 . Thi s woul d fi t nicel ywit hour plan t o visi t wit hDr . Yul e on May] an d 3 an d Dr . Winnek e o f th e F.R.G . o

n May6 an

d 8 . However , al l o f thi s depend s on your availability . (Incidently , w e als o plan t o includ e Drs . Dietrich , Ernhart , an d Needlema n o f the U.S . i n th e study . W e hop e t o obtai n thei r judgment s befor e traveling t o Europe. )

I f you agre e t o participat e in thi s veryimportan t an d ground-breaking study , I wil l sen

d you mor e informatio n abou t th e study , including th e proto co l tha t w e inten

d t o us e t o facilitat e th e proces s o f obtaining you r prob
abilisti c judgments . I woul d like t o arrang e a phon e cal l wit hyo u soon t o discus s thes e natters . Perhap s yo u coul d le t m e kno w(vi a TELEX? ) o f som e good day s an

d time s o f th

e da yto cal l you . M

yTELE Xnumbe r i s TW X910-258-328 5 U S DOE-C H ARGN .P. 4

Efr . M . Rutte r Marc h19 , 198 5

Al l o f u s sincerel yhop e tha t yo u ca n take par t i n th e study . You r judgment s ar e importan t t o th e U.S . EPA , an

d you r participatio n wil l be greatl yappreciated . Sincerely ,
Ronal d G . Whitfield , Ph.D . Decisio n an

d SystemScience s Sectio n Energ yan d Environmenta l System s Divisio n

RGW:s g