Afghanistan Food Security Bulletin 

 December 2005 - February 2006

Early Assessment of 2006 Agricultural Season 

Satellite imagery reveals that winter wheat production for northern 

Afghanistan is expected to be average to above-average except for 

some isolated parts of northern Mazar Province. Winter wheat 

duction in south and southwestern Afghanistan could fail as there 

has not been sufficient rainfall for crop development over the last three 

months. 

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Figure 1: Extended Water Requirement Satisfaction Index 

Source: FEWS NET/USGS 

The irrigation anomaly imagery indicates that northern basins are likely 

to have enough irrigation water for the entire wheat season while the 

outhern basins (basins flowing south, west, and east) like Helmand are 

ikely to have below-average irrigation water available for wheat. 

Ground observations have further confirmed the remotely sensed data. 

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Figure 2: Irrigation Supply/Demand for Wheat 

Source: FEWS NET/USGS 

Highlights: • Northern Afghanistan is expected 

to have sufficient irrigation water 

available for the winter wheat 

season 

• South and southwestern 

Afghanistan are not expected to 

have sufficient irrigation water for 

wheat cultivation which could result 

in crop failure 

• January 2006 wheat prices were 

slightly higher in comparison to 

October 2005 prices in Kabul, 

Kandahar, Jalalabad, Mazar, 

Mainmana, and Faizabad 

• With the exception of Mazar and 

Maimana, wage rates have 

remained stable 

• The two most common livestock 

diseases, Foot and Mouth Disease 

(FMD) and Peste Des Petites 

Ruminants (PPR), are most prevalent 

during the upcoming warm weather 

months 

• Afghanistan is on alert status for 

Avian Influenza 

• Although there is no reliable data 

on HIV/AIDS prevalence in 

Afghanistan, there are several risk 

factors which could play a role in its 

transmission 
Market Prices 

January 2006 wheat prices have slightly increased in comparison to October 2005 prices in Kabul, Kandahar, 

Hirat, Mazar, Fiazabad, and Maimana markets. The increase in wheat prices in these provinces is likely to be 

the result of the winter slow down in the movement of commodities. In contrast, Bamyan market shows a slight 

decrease in wheat prices, which is likely to be the result of a reduction in the demand for wheat as households 

in Bamyan are consuming from their own stocks due heavy snow and inaccessibility to markets. 

Wage rates for January 2006 compared to October 2005 remained stable in Kabul, Kandahar, Jalaabld, Hirat, 

and Faizabad. However, Mazar and Maimana experienced a slight decrease in wage rates. This is likely due 

to the reduction of construction activities over the winter months which is a major employment generator in 

these areas. Bamyan experienced a modest increase in wage rates. 

In comparison to October 2005, diesel prices in January 2006 experienced a slight increase in all eight locations 

(Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Hirat, Mazar, Faizabad, Bamyan, and Maimana). This increase is likely related to a 

slow down in shipments along the supply chain in Afghanistan due to winter conditions rather than an increase 

in world diesel prices as was the case in October 2005. 

October-05 November-05 December-05 January-06 

Locations Wheat/Kg Diesel/L 

Labor 

Wage/day Wheat/Kg Diesel/L 

Labor 

Wage/day Wheat/Kg Diesel/L 

Labor 

Wage/day 

Wheat/

Kg

Diesel/

L

Labor 

Wage/d

ay

Kabul 12.6 32.0 179.0 12.7 35.0 180.0 12.4 37.0 185.0 12.8 38.0 180.0 

Kandahar 10.9 30.0 150.0 10.7 33.0 150.0 11.4 35.0 150.0 11.8 33.0 155.0 

Nangarhar 10.0 32.3 126.6 10.0 33.8 126.7 10.0 37.2 126.7 10.3 34.0 126.7 

Hirat 10.9 28.0 170.0 11.0 30.0 170.0 10.8 32.0 170.0 10.5 32.0 158.0 

Mazar 9.8 31.0 160.0 10.1 34.0 138.0 10.2 36.0 138.0 10.1 37.0 125.0 

Faizabad 12.0 37.0 250.0 12.2 38.0 250.0 12.7 48.0 250.0 13.6 41.0 225.0 

Bamyan 11.5 36.5 196.3 11.4 36.4 192.0 10.9 36.3 200.0 11.0 38.8 200.0 

Mainmana 11.6 30.0 233.0 10.8 34.0 200.0 11.6 37.0 200.0 11.6 38.0 238.0 

The average exchange rate for August and October is Afs 49.90 to $1., Source of data WFP/VAM Unit (Source of Data: WFP)

Livestock diseases

Livestock plays a vital role in rural Afghan livelihoods and food security. Ten percent of the Afghan population 

is nomadic and subsists mainly on livestock. In addition, livestock accounts for a large proportion of rural 

household food and income. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and Food 

Livestock and Veterinary Department (MAAHF/LVD), Afghan livestock is at risk of contracting cross-boundary 

transmitted diseases because the Government of Afghanistan is unable to control the movement of animals 

between Afghanistan and its neighbors, particularly Pakistan. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Peste Des 

Petites Ruminants (PPR) are the most common and widespread diseases that threaten livestock lives and 

productivity in Afghanistan. The vaccine for FMD is expensive and only immunizes an animal for four months. 

Because of these factors, neither the government nor NGOs are able to provide full vaccination coverage for 

FMD. Without comprehensive vaccination coverage these diseases are more likely to spread, particularly 

during the summer months when disease incidences reach their highest levels. Tuberculoses (TB) and Rabies 

are two other diseases that are threaten livestock in Afghanistan, although not to the same extent as FMD and 

PPR. 

According to the MAAHF/LVD, Afghanistan is in alerts status for being at risk of widespread Avian Influenza. 

Alert status means that Afghanistan may have already been or will soon be exposed to the virus and should 

begin undertaking control measures. Afghanistan is located along a bird migratory route which brings wild bird 

from the Middle East and Central Asia. In addition, Afghanistan’s neighbors (in particular China and Iran) have 

recorded cases of Avian Influenza although there have been no reported cases in Afghanistan so far. 

Nevertheless, information flow is a major problem between Kabul and remote villages in Afghanistan. The 

Afghan government is concentrating its efforts on providing awareness to Afghans communities about Avian 

Influenza and its associated risks. A task force, comprised of the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry 
and Food (MAAHF), the Ministry of Public Health (MPH), the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Interior, and 

municipalities has been established to monitor the situation. From the technical side, FAO and WHO are 

helping the MPH and MAAHF. According to MAAHF/LVD, the Government of Afghanistan has the technical 

capacity to diagnosis the virus but cannot differentiate between virus subtypes. 

HIV/AIDS 

HIV/AIDS has a direct association with food insecurity of households. AIDS impacts the workforce which, in turn, 

affects all sides of the food security equation: availability, access, and utilization. 

There is little information about the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Afghanistan; however, the Ministry of Health has 

estimated that there are between 1,200 and 1,500 cases nationwide. As of October 2005, the actual number 

of known cases was 41 and the first official victims were an Afghan returnee and his children who died of AIDSrelated illnesses in November 2004. Furthermore, there are several risks and vulnerabilities which could play a 

role in the transmission of HIV/AIDS in Afghanistan. These include: refugee returnees and out migration, high 

levels of Illiteracy, competing health priorities and a lack of health facilities, injection drug use, and prostitution. 

Although additional information and data are needed to develop a coherent plan of action, the Government 

of Afghanistan has established a national HIV/AIDS/STI-control department, developed a five-year strategic 

plan (2003-2007), and developed an annual plan of action. These are important first steps which will help 

better inform Afghan decision makers about the actual extent of the problem and provide guidance for 

managing the spread of HIV/AIDS in Afghanistan. 

The clinical data on other transmitted diseases in Afghanistan suggests that it would be foolish for Afghans to 

pretend there is no risk of AIDS in their country -- Hieber- Girardet Spokesman for World Health Organization 

Contact Address: Fazal Karim Najimi 

Email: FKNajimi@chemonics.com , Cell phone: 070 15 60 60 

Famine Early Warning System Network Funded by USAID 

Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development