**GAO-08-671**                      Published: Sep 30, 2008. Publicly Released: Sep 30, 2008.                  

-   
-   
-   
-   

    Jump To:  
-  Elder Abuse 
-  Services for Older Adults 
-  State and Local-Level Drivers and Trends 
-  State and Local Fiscal Projections 
-  Federal Borrowing 
-  Managing the Debt 
-  Summary of Funding Provisions 
-  Auditing the Government's Books 
-  Unpacking the Financial Report 
-  Highlights 
-  Recommendations 
-  Background 
-  About This Work 
-  About This Work 
-  Trends 
-  About the Center 
-  Why It's High Risk 
-  What Remains To Be Done 
-  Key Reports 
-  Newest COVID-Related Reports 
-  AI Use Cases 
-  Flood Insurance 
-  Past Pandemic-Related Reports 
-  CARES Act Oversight Reports 
-  All COVID-19 Reports 
-  Report Suspected Fraud 
-  Subjects 
-  How to Get Notified 
-  Past Reports 
-  Public Health Threats 
-  Explore the FY 2022 and 2023 Funds 
-  Status of FY22 Projects 
-  Lessons Learned 
-  Agency Reports 
-  Recent Reports 
-  Recommendations 
-  Supplemental Material 
-  Full Report 
-  Additional Data 
-  View Decision 
-  Downloads 
-  Previously Identified Actions 
-  Related Pages 
-  Associated Agencies 
-  Tough Choices and Opportunities Ahead 
-  Americas Fiscal Future Key Areas 
-  Retirement Security Key Areas 
-  Current List 
-  About The High Risk List 
-  Area Ratings 
-  Previous High Risk Products 
-  Search Federal Vacancies 
-  Past Federal Vacancies 
-  Violation Letters 
-  About the Yellow Book 
-  Advisory Council 
-  Related Resources 
-  Comment Letters 
-  Related Publications 
-  Contacts and Resources 
-  Major Issues Facing the Nation 
-  Meeting Strategic Challenges 
-  Additional Resources 
-  Resources 
-  GAO Contacts 
-  Mission Teams 
-  Operations and Staff Offices  
-  Organization Chart  
-  Why a Career at GAO? 
-  Am I Qualified? 
-  Company Culture 
-  Reasonable Accommodations 
-  Video Gallery 
-  Paid Internships 
-  Student Volunteers 
-  Professional Development Program 
-  Advancement 
-  Executive Candidate Program 
-  Summer Associates 
-  Externships 
-  Benefits 
-  Contacts 

Skip to Highlights

## Highlights

The emergence of the H5N1 avian influenza virus (also known as "bird flu") has raised concerns that it or another virus might mutate into a virulent strain that could lead to an influenza pandemic. Experts predict that a severe pandemic could overwhelm the nation's health care system, requiring the rationing of limited resources. GAO was asked to provide information on the progress of the Department of Health and Human Services's (HHS) plans for responding to a pandemic, including analyzing how HHS plans to (1) use pharmaceutical interventions to treat infected individuals and protect the critical workforce and (2) use nonpharmaceutical interventions to slow the spread of disease. To conduct this work, GAO reviewed government documents and scientific literature, and interviewed HHS officials, state and local public health officials, and subject-matter experts on pandemic response.

HHS plans to make existing federal stockpiles of pharmaceutical interventions available for distribution once a pandemic begins. These interventions would include antivirals, which are drugs to prevent or reduce the severity of infection, and pre-pandemic vaccines, which are vaccines produced prior to a pandemic and developed from influenza strains that have the potential to cause a pandemic. HHS has established a national goal of stockpiling 75 million treatment courses of antivirals in the Strategic National Stockpile and in jurisdictional stockpiles. According to HHS, these public sector stockpiles are intended to be used primarily for the treatment of individuals sick with influenza. HHS intends to oversee the distribution and administration of pre-pandemic vaccine to individuals identified as members of the critical workforce. Members of the critical workforce--estimated to be about 20 million--include workers in sectors that are considered necessary to keep society functioning, such as health care and law enforcement personnel. HHS's strategy for using pre-pandemic vaccine is to keep society functioning until a pandemic vaccine--a vaccine specific to the pandemic-causing strain--becomes widely available. HHS anticipates that initial batches of a pandemic vaccine may not be available until 20 to 23 weeks after the start of the pandemic. As batches of the pandemic vaccine become available, HHS plans for state and local jurisdictions to provide it to members of targeted groups based on factors such as occupation and age, instead of making it available to the general public. HHS faces challenges implementing its strategy for using pharmaceutical interventions during a pandemic, including the lack of vaccine manufacturing capacity in the United States. HHS is currently making large investments to expand domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity. In 2008, HHS released guidance on prioritizing target groups for pandemic vaccine and draft guidance on antiviral use during a pandemic. HHS has not yet released draft guidance for public comment on prioritizing target groups for pre-pandemic vaccine. HHS will rely on state and local jurisdictions to utilize nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as isolation of sick individuals and voluntary home quarantine of those exposed to the pandemic strain. To assist state and local jurisdictions with implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions, HHS has developed guidance that describes the department's "community mitigation framework." The framework involves the early initiation of multiple nonpharmaceutical interventions, each of which is expected to be partially effective and to be maintained consistently throughout a pandemic. HHS faces difficulties, including helping jurisdictions develop ways to ensure community compliance. HHS is investing in several initiatives to increase the nation's knowledge about the general use and effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The findings from this research will be used to update existing guidance.

## Recommendations

## Recommendations for Executive Action

## Full Report

Highlights

Full Report (77 pages)

Accessible Text 

## Office of Public Affairs

### Media Inquiries

Sarah Kaczmarek
kaczmareks@gao.gov

(202) 512-4800

### Public Inquiries

Public Affairs
PublicAffairs@gao.gov

(202) 512-4800

## Topics

Health Care

Animal diseasesAvian influenzaCritical time interventionDisease controlDisease surveillanceDiseasesDrugsEmergency medical response plansEmergency preparednessEmergency response proceduresEmerging infectious diseasesstate relationsHealth care facilitiesHealth care planningInfectious diseasesJurisdictional authorityPandemicPharmaceutical industryPublic healthStrategic national stockpileStrategic planningProgram implementation