Department of Energy

orkshop on Standards for

Residential Furnaces and Boilers

Cyrus Nasseri

July 17 , 2001

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Energy Policy & Conservation

AcfEPC A) Requirements

• EPCA requires standards to be set

• Any new or amended energy conservation standard prescribed

by the Secretary for any type (or class) of covered product

shall be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in

energy efficiency, ...which the Secretary determines is

technologically feasible and economically justified. (EPCA

§325(0)(2)(A))

1

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
SPCA Requirements

• Residential Furnaces and Boilers are covered

products. §321(23)

• EPCA set the initial standards. §325(f)

- All (except those listed below): 78% AFUE

- Boilers

• gas steam: 75% AFUE

• others: 80% AFUE

- Mobile home furnaces: 75% AFUE.

• Special provisions for mobile home furnaces

and "small" furnaces (< 45,000 Btu/h input)

2

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
PCA Requirements (Cont'd)

• "Small" furnace provisions. §325(f)(1)(B)

- DOE to publish a final rule by 1/1/89, setting an

AFUE level between 71% to 78%

- Would apply to products manufactured from 1/1/92

- Not likely to cause fuel switching

• Mobile home furnace provisions. §325(f)(3)(A)

- DOE to publish a final rule by 1/1192, determining if

the 75% AFUE standard should be amended

- Amendment would apply to products manufactured

on or after I/ 1 /94

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
EPCA Requirements (Cont'd)

Other provisions. §325(f)(3)( )-(C)

By 1/1/94

• Publish a final rule, determining if all the residential furnace

and boiler standards should be amended

• Amendments would apply to products manufactured on or

after 1 /1/2002

- Between 1/1/97 to 1/1/07

® Publish a final rule to determine whether all the residential

furnace and boiler standards in effect for such products

should be amended, and include such amendment, if any in

this rule

would apply to products manufactured on or after 1/1/2012

4

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Delays Encountered

• FY' 96 moratorium on standards

• DOE improved process rule (7/15/96)

- Applied to products before NOPR stage, including

residential furnaces and boilers

- DOE would revise mobile home furnace analysis

and NOPR and follow assigned FY priority levels

• Assigned a low priority in the following years

• Assigned a high priority in FY'O1

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Current Status

• "Small" furnace provisions: §325(f)(1)(B).

- Final rule published on 11/17/89, adopting 78%

AFUE

• Mobile home furnace provisions: §325(f)(3)(A).

- NOPR published on 3/4/94

• Other provisions: §325(f)(3)(B)-(C):

- First revision of standards (statutory effective date:

1/1/2002): ANOPR published 9/8/93

- Second revision of standards (statutory effective date:

1/1/2012): TBD

6

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Mobile Home Furnaces

• Statute requires a two review approach (325(f(3))

- A final rule by 1/1/92, to determine if the 75% AFUE

standard should be amended. (Effective 1/1/94)

- Final rule for all classes of residential furnaces and boilers on

whether standards should be amended. (Effective 1/1/02)

• Statutory timeline not met due to delays

• Recommendations

- First stage: Adopt an intermediate standard. (Effective at an

earlier date)

- Second stage: Adopt a possibly higher standard effective

with standards for all product classes. (Effective at a later

date)

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Standards Setting Process

Timeline

July

2001

Stakeholder Participation

Prior Standards Rulemakings

ec^

Qme o ^c o° Iq ^°

o

QQ`\ Pow ^C J`^a oQ q S ^a

^Q oc mo ^Q 5 otc c°'

N7^Gocyo^

5 Q-QJ.p^ QJ

987 1989 1993 1994

Current Standards Rulemaking

a^^ ^oo,^c OQQ- OQQ- m J

Re

O° I g^^ mac

2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2012

8

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Analytical Framework

Residential Furnaces and Boilers

Approaches

Industry Review

Quantitative Analysis i

Qualitative Analysis-Interviows

Tear-Down Analysis

Design-Option Approach ff

Efficiency-Level Approach 1

Market Survey

Expert Forecasts

Forecasts

Models

Historical shipments

• Product saturation

Voluntary initiatives

ANOPR

rP

.Batail.P..rig s ................

.............................................

Other efficiencies

Efficiency

Life-cycle Cost and Payback

Analysis

National

Impacts Analysis Eio

Key-Outputs

• Payback Distribution

t • Life-cycle Distribution

Energy savings

r • Net Present Values

r • Payback

distribution i

r _ r

i r

Revised Engineering, LCC,

and NES Analyses ""

• Payback Distribution

Consumer • Life-cede Distribution .

Demographics Impacts

Manufacturer Prices

..................................................................7............... . Manufacturer Industry Cash-flow with Uncainty

Average t ................ Impact Analysis

Costs • Standard Level Cases

• Efficiency Distribution i

for all Cases

Utility load factors

Emission rates (NEMS)

Environmental

Analysis (NEMS

Employment

Impacts

NOPR

FINAL RULE

Key-Inputs

Identify Firms/ Products

Historical Information

Market( Firm Segmentation

txisnnq n-r gulatorv epic niti

Exi sting Technology ODtions

Equipment Prototype Designs J

r

^Ir

Equipment Simulation Models

0

i

0

Analysis

Market & Technology

Assessment

v a

Screening Analysis

Engineering

Analysis

x r ^Ia

Marginal Energy Pries a iy

v Maintenance/Service Cost I

Efficiency/Pe

.....................................................................

a

Prices

I

8et$il, Png.C.s...t ................

Other

efficiencies i

Installation costs I

Utility Impacts Utility Revenue Losses

Emissions

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
Discussion Topics

• Market and Technology Assessment

- Product Classes

- Baseline Residential Furnaces and Boilers

- Screening Analysis

• Engineering Analysis

Retail Prices, Markups, and Installation Costs

- Electricity Consumption

10

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
iscussion Topics (Cont'd)

• Other Analyses

- Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

- Consumer Sub-group Analysis

- National Energy Saving and Net Present

Value Analysis

- Manufacturer Impact Analysis

- Employment Impact Analysis

- Utility Impact Analysis

- Environmental Analysis

11

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC
• Incorporate comments (due 8 / 17/0 '1 )

• Fine-tune analytical approach and conduct preANOPR analyses (8/01-12/02)

• Publish

- ANOPR (12/02)

- NOPR (6104)

- Final Rule (11 /04)

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02CC