## Monitoring Cyclical Changes in U.S. Metals Activity



### Recent recessions severely affected the health of U.S. metal industries



### Metal Industry Indicators tracks changes in the business cycle that can affect the metal industries



### The Metal Industry Indicators aids decision and policy makers concerned with metals activity



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|Shaded areas are economic recessions. Asterisks (*) signify highs (the end of economic expansions) and lows (the end of economic downturns) reflected by the indexes. Note that leading index highs and lows occur before highs and lows of the coincident indexes, which measure current economic activity. The indexes give clues regarding the present and near-term future growth of the U.S. metals industry. The effects of the last three recessions on the primary metals industry vary greatly. The late 1970's and early 1980's were periods of high inflation, which increased industry costs. Interest rates rose dramatically. Metals prices, however, did not keep pace with inflation. When the recessions of the early 1980's occurred, activity in the U.S. metal industries declined severely. During and after the 1981-82 recession, the metal industries cut employment, shut down facilities, and brought other costs under control. When the next recession occurred in 1990-91, the downturn in total metal industry activity was not as deep as the previous recession. The primary metals coincident index grew 23 percent from the end of the last recession in March 1991 through the end of 1997. In 1997 the coincident index finally reached the level it achieved in December 1978, before the industry began declining through the early 1980's.
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### Recent research at the USGS identified economic indicators that improved the metal industry leading indexes



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|For more information, please contact:                               
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|Ken Beckman   
Telephone: (703) 648-4916  
E-mail: kbeckman@usgs.gov
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|U.S. Geological Survey
988 National Center
Reston, VA 20192         



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|U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | USGS Fact Sheet FS-071-98
September 1998
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