3 '~ Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

Mark Kendall

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS 

Mark Kendall 

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com) 

Arthur D. Little, Inc. 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
lb Engineering Analysis

,wS Overview

The Engineering Analysis defines the relationship between equipment cost and equipment efficiency for use in downstream analyses.

o / Consumer Life-Cycle Cost

,= /y~ ^^^ ~* ·Manufacturer Impact '0

1.-Employment Impact

, , , * Employment Impact

Product Efficiency

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Engineering Analysis 

Overview 

The Engineering Analysis defines the relationship between equipment 

cost and equipment efficiency for use in downstream analyses. 

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Product Efficiency 

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• Consumer Life-Cycle Cost 

• Manufacturer Impact 

• Employment Impact 

111.0. Eng Analysis 083001 
i Engineering Analysis

Characteristics

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DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in

the analysis possess certain characteristics.

® Credible

- based on acceptable estimation techniques

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources

* Transparent

- publicly accessible

- protects proprietary information

* Specific

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation

- a single set of cost-efficiency estimates

- quantified uncertainties

* Timely

- available prior to scheduled deadlines

IIID. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Engineering Analysis 

Chpracteristics 

. ~. ..~. ',.,-.;' 

DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in 

the analysis possess certain characteristics .. 

• Credible 

- based on acceptable estimation techniques 

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources 

• Transparent 

- publicly accessible 

- protects proprietary information 

• Specific 

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation 

- a single set of cost-efficiency estimates 

- quantified uncertainties 

• Timely 

- available prior to scheduled deadlines 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 2 
Engineering Analysis

Sources of Efficiency Data

There are several potential sources of efficiency/performance information,

when applied to commercial air conditioners.

Primary advantage ... disadvantage

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of Detailed data is often / performance data the most sensitive

Testing/Rating Objective near only accessible concentrated near only a few efficiency levels

Technical Literature Freely available Inconsisent topical J

coverage

,Engineering Estimates Efficient Scope depends on

Engineering Estimates Efficient personnel availability

Questionable Simulation Modeling Flexible applicabilityfor

larger equipment

Prototyping Direct observation Resource intensive V

/. Can provide direct insight into performance of future

equipment under more stringent standards 1I.D.EngAnalysis 083001 3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Engineering Analysis 

SOl!Jrces of Efficiency Data 

There are several potential sources of efficiency/performance information, 

when applied to commercial air conditioners. 

Primary advantage ... disadvantage 

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of Detailed data is often 

performance data the most sensitive 

. Testing/Rating Objective and Products are 

concentrated near only accessible 

a few efficiency levels 

Technical Literature Freely available Inconsisent topical 

coverage 

',Engineering Estimates Efficient Scope depends on 

personnel availability 

Simulation Modeling Flexible Questionable 

applicability for 

larger equipment 

Prototyping Direct observation Resource intensive 

. j. Can provide direct Insight Into performance of future 

V equipment under more stringent standards 111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 

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3 
Engineering Analysis

Sources of Manufacturing Cost Data

Similarly, there are several potential sources of manufacturing cost

data each with advantages and disadvantages.

Primary advantage ... disadvantage

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of cost Detailed data is often

and market info sensitive

Teardown Analysis/ Direct product Products concentrated

observation near only a few Engineering Evaluation efficiency levels

List Prices Readily accessible Indicates overall value, wholesale prices not efficiency-related

cost

Public Data (e.g. Census) Freely available Highly aggregated

Can provide direct insight into future costs under

more stringent standards

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Engineering Analysis 

SQurces' of Manufacturing Cost Data 

Similarly, there are several potential sources of manufacturing cost 

. data each with advantages and disadvantages. 

Primary advantage . D • disadvantage 

·Manufacturers and Suppliers 

T eardown Analysis/ 

. Engineering Evaluation 

.. , 

List Prices 

Public Data (e.g. Census) 

Direct source of cost 

and market info 

Direct product 

observation 

Readily accessible 

wholesale prices 

Freely available 

.; Can provi(le direct Insight into future costs under 

more stringent standards 

Detailed data Is often 

sensitive 

Products concentrated . I 

near only a few y 

efficiency levels 

Indicates overall value, 

not efficiency-related 

cost 

Highly aggregated 

111.0. Eng Analysis 083001 4 
~'-. Engineering Analysis

.: Proposed Approach

Based on the Department's past experience using approaches such

as the Design Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to

combine data sources for this rulemaking.

· Gather publicly available information on cost, price, and performance

* Work with manufacturers to obtain design data for appropriate

equipment samples and perform a cost estimate based on that data

* Conduct computer simulations and perform engineering estimates to

supplement the design data

* Obtain reviews by stakeholders

* Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty

Based on their advantages and disadvantages, are all these

steps necessary, or are others warranted?

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Engineering Analysis 

Proposed Approach 

Based on the Department's past experience using approaches such 

as the Design Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to 

. combine data sources for this rulemaking. 

• Gather publicly available information on cost, price, and performance 

• Work with manufacturers to obtain design data for appropriate 

equipment samples and perform a cost estimate based on that data 

• Conduct computer simulations and perform engineering estimates to 

supplement the design data 

• Obtain reviews by stakeholders 

• Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty 

Based on their advantages and disadvantages, are aI/ these 

steps necessary, or are others warranted? 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 5 
'. Engineering Analysis Questions Related to Proposed Approach

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Depending on which approach we take, there are some questions to be

answered.

· What role should manufacturers and other stakeholders have in

providing data and reviewing assumptions, methods and results?

* What performance modeling tools should be used, if any? - PUREZ -- formerly referred to as MODCON (Oak Ridge National

Laboratory simulation model)

- HPSIM (National Institute of Standards and Technology simulation

model)

- ACMODEL (Ray W. Herrick Laboratories, Purdue University simulation

model)

- Spreadsheets (based on engineering expertise)

* If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines should we use for reconciling them and integrating them into a

single set of cost-efficiency data?

* How should the Department consider improvements that impact part-load efficiency (e.g. IPLV) but not EER?

Il.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

~ ~~ Engineering Analysis " ~J\ Questions Related to Proposed Approach 

, ~~1rI _ ..... ______ IIIUJ2iJd ..... i¥!~."'iiifJ~,'3'~;;'t.,;;<~~~!:~:~;':.,,; : 

Depending on which approach we take, there are some questions to be 

answered. 

• What role'should manufacturers and other stakeholders have in 

, providing data and reviewing assumptions, methods and results? 

• What,performance modeling tools should be used, if any? 

- PUREZ -- formerly referred to as MODCON (Oak Ridge National 

Laboratory simulation model) 

- HPSIM (National Institute of Standards and Technology simulation 

model) , 

, " - ACMODEL (Ray W. Herrick Laboratories, Purdue University simulation 

model) 

- Spreadsheets (based on engineering expertise) 

• If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines 

should we' use for reconciling them and integrating them into a 

single set of cost-efficiency data? 

'. How should the Department consider improvements that impact 

part-load efficiency (e.g. IPLV) but not EER? I 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300\ 6 
l ' ~Retail Price and Installation Cost .. l Overview

Retail prices and installation costs at various efficiency levels are needed

to estimate consumer life cycle costs.

Retail Price

Installation CLife Cycle Cost Analysis Cost

* How will standards impact equipment price, installation cost (and maintenance/service costs)?

* What are the drawbacks, if any, of inferring equipment retail

prices by applying a series of markups to our production cost estimates?

* Given that the equipment price is just one component of the price of the installed system, is it likely that information gathered through a survey could help determine retail prices or markups ?

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Retail Price and Installation Cost 

. Overview 

Retail prices and installation costs at various efficiency levels are needed 

to estimate consumer life cycle costs. 

• 

I ' 

• 

• 

Retail Price 

Installation 

Cost 

Life Cycle Cost Analysis 

How will standards impact equipment price, installation cost (and 

maintenance/service costs)? 

What are the drawbacks, if any, of inferring equipment retail 

prices by applying a series of markups to our production cost 

estimates? 

Given that the equipment price is just one component of the 

price of the installed system, is it likely that information gathered 

through a survey could help determine retail- prices or markups? 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 7 
Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

Building Energy Use & Electric Load

Shape Characterization

David Winiarski

(david.winiarski@pnl.gov)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

Building Energy Use & Electric Load 

Shape Characterization 

I>avid VViniarski 

(david. winiarski@pnl.gov) 

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 

U.S~ DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
e' , Building Energy Use and Load Shape

Ad Characterization

Overview

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The purpose of the building energy use and load shape characterization

analysis is to assess the energy and peak demand savings potential of

different equipment efficiencies across the range of commercial building

types and climate zones.

5 5Development and Characterizmulation of Equipment Load

Building Stock: Profiles

Possible Sources Building Prototypes

CBECS, MAISY (Possible Tools:

Utility/Industry data BLAST, Demand Profildines Energy Plus) Demand Profiles

k.F

Time

III-D-2- 2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Building Energy Use and Load Shape 

Characterization 

Overview 

The purpose of the. building energy use and load shape characterization 

analysis is to assess the energy and peak demand savings ,potential of 

different equipment efficiencies across the range of commercial building 

types and climate zones. 

Characterization of 

Building Stock: 

Possible Sources 

CBECS, MAISY 

Utility/Industry data 

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./ 

'\ Development and 

Simulation of 

Building Prototypes 

(Possible Tools: / BLAST, DOE2.1 E, 

Energy Plus) 

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Equipment Load 

Profiles 

& 

Whole Building 

Demand Profile~ 

Time 

111-0-2- 2 
Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization

Request for Stakeholder Input

The Department seeks stakeholder input on the tools and

other sources of data concerning U.S. commercial building

stock characteristics for energy-related modeling purposes.

Do you agree with the use of these tools?

What other data sources could stakeholders make available

to better characterize building stock using these unitary

equipment (e.g. regional product shipping data, utility

customer surveys, or other survey data)?

III-D-2- 3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization 

Request for Stakeholder Input 

The Department seeks stakeholder input on the tools and 

other sources of data concerning U.S. commercial building 

stock characteristics for energy-related modeling purposes. 

Do you agree with the use of these tools? 

What other data sources could stakeholders make available 

, to better characterize building stock using these unitary 

equipment (e.g. regional product shipping data, utility 

customer surveys, or other survey data)? 

I1I-D-2- 3 
i; Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization

.b Request for Stakeholder Input

Specific Modeling Concerns

- Buildings with commercial unitary AC and HPs are likely to

use economizers that provide cooling independent of the

efficiency of the equipment. What assumptions should be

made in modeling the equipment regarding the use of, and

control strategy applied to, economizers?

-Commercial unitary AC and HPs may be oversized to allow

for growth, which affects the run time, energy performance,

and latent heat removal capability. What assumptions should

be made about how equipment is sized in order to address it

correctly in the analysis from both an energy and first cost

impact?

III-D-2- 4

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

.' I 

Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization 

Request for Stakeholder Input 

II Specific Modeling Concerns 

- Buildings with commercial unitary AC and HPs are likely to 

use economizers that provide cooling independent of the 

efficiency of the equipment. What assumptions should be 

made in modeling the equipment regarding the use of, and 

control strategy applied to, economizers? 

Commercial unitary AC and HPs may be oversized to allow 

for growth, which affects the run time, energy perfonnance, 

and latent heat removal capability. What assumptions should 

be mqde about how equipment is sized in order to address it 

correctly in the analysis from both an energy and first cost 

impact? 

III-D-2- 4 
yK Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization

ji Request for Stakeholder Input

Specific Modeling Concerns

- Due to the varied ductwork designs for various commercial

buildings the fan static pressures will vary significantly.

What assumptions should be made regarding typical duct

designs in order to effectively accountforfan energy use?

-Supply fans on commercial unitary AC and HPs generally

operate continuously when the building is occupied to

provide ventilation air. How should energy use of the supply

fans operating only when ventilation is required (rather than

heating or cooling) be excluded from (or incorporated with)

the energy use of the heating and cooling equipment?

III-D-2- 5

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02II

Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization. 

Request for Stakeholder Input 

" ' ........ ':'" 

• Specific Modeling Concerns 

- Due to the varied ductwork designs for various commercial 

buildings the fan static pressures will vary significantly. 

What assumptions should be made regarding typical duct 

designs in order to effectively account/or fan energy use? 

- Supply fans on commercial unitary AC and HPs generally 

operate continuously when the building is occupied to 

provide ventilation air. How should energy use of the supply 

fans operating only when ventilation is required (rather than 

heating or cooling) be excludedfrom (or incorporated with) 

the energy use of the heating and cooling equipment? 

III-D-2- 5