www.inl.gov

Water Management Analysis of 

Hydraulic Fracturing using 

System Dynamic Models

Earl D. Mattson, Carl D. Palmer, Kara Cafferty

EPA Technical Workshop #4 

Water Resource Management

Theme 1: Water Use and Sustainability

March 29-30, 2011

Idaho National Laboratory
Water Impact from Shale Gas Development

From: 

http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/minres/oilgas/BOGM%20Website%20Pictures/2

009/2009%20%20Wells%20Drilled.jpg

From: http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/wlhabitat/images/watersheds.jpg

• Growing Industry

• Multiple Operators (82 in PA)

• Multiple Watersheds

• Complex problem to integrate
Objective:

Present an outline on the potential use of System 

Dynamic Models to track water usage for hydraulic 

fracturing of shales and its integration into GIS 

models. 
Hydraulic Fracturing Water Consumption 

Estimates

Shale Gas Play Volume of 

Drilling Water 

per well (gal)

Volume of 

Fracturing Water 

per well (gal)

Total Volume of 

Water per well 

(gal)

Barnett 400,000 2,300,000 2,700,000

Fayetteville 60,000 2,900,000 3,060,000

Haynesville 1,000,000 2,700,000 3,700,000

Marcellus 80,000 3,800,000 3,880,000

• No description of acquisition

• No estimate of return volume

• Based on historical data

Data from Modern Shale Gas A Primer
System Dynamics Modeling

 A way to address complex problems 

involving diverse stakeholders

 Dynamic, non-linear simulation 

modeling with capacities to integrate 

“soft” and “hard” system components in 

one place.

 Provides a visual model of the system

 Receive immediate response to “what if” 

scenarios.

 Links cause and effects relationships

 Captures the mental models of the domain experts.

 All model equations and data are “transparent”
Retort width

Retort length

Buffer width

Depth of frz wall Height of retort

Freeze wall spacing

Production well density

Heater spacing

Well completion rate

Number of drill rigs

Depth to water

Plan View Cross Section

Example of an in-situ retort similar to the Shell 

process
Building the Model

• The water usage can be scaled by:

– Number of wells

– Surface areas

– Subsurface volumes

– Product production rate

• The system can be represented by

– Single subsurface shale

– Sequential events

• The parameter distributions can be described by 

simple functions
Construction

retort

dimensions retort properties

Operation Reclamation

time module

Model inputs

Model calculations

Model outputs

Oil Shale Model Components
Oil Shale Construction Module
Oil Shale Operation Module
Construction

Note: Diagram for illustration only, do not cite.

Model Output
Source

Groundwater

Surface water

Reuse

Pre-fracture Storage

Ponds

Pipelines

Tankers

Fracture Design

Injection rate

Injection pressure

Young’s Modulus

Possion ratio

Stress conditions

# of fractures

Leakoff rate

Operation

Operating pressure

Fracture rinse

Flow back water

Produced water

Water in matrix

Post-fracture Storage

Volume

Treatment

Water Injected

Fracture volume

Leakoff volume

Potential Hydraulic Fracturing Modules
An example of a basic system dynamics 

reservoir model with direct plug-in to GIS 

framework

Input from data

and forecasting

Interaction with

GIS

LEGEND

Water in Reservoir

Total gauged inflow Water released

through dam

Evaporation

Net other flows

Surface water

elevation

Surface area of

reservoir

Dam Release Policy

freshwater

evaporation rate

Calibration for net

other flows
Summary

time

Water Needed

time

Water Needed

time

Water Needed

time

Water Needed

time

Water Return

time

Water Return

time

Water Return

time

Water Return

Inputs GIS Location Outputs
Summary

• Theme 1: Water Use and Sustainability

– Identify sources of water needed for HF

– How to integrate this water use with 

surrounding communities

• Theme 2: Flowback Recovery and Water Use

– Quantify amount of flowback

– Extended towards reuse

• Theme 3: Disposal Practices

– Quantifies volume of waste disposal

time

Water Needed

time

Hydrograph

time

Water Return

Water for Disposal

time

Integrate water use 

into single predictive 

tool for water 

management 

decisions
Databases

Resource

precip

Stream 

Flow

ModelCenter

Production Process

Surface Water

Air Quality

Infrastructure

Socio-Economic

Start Code Get Data

Final Code Store Result

MS-SQL

ArcGIS

Deliverable 

Data & ArcGIS Visualiztion

and Model Output for 

Regional Environmental 

Impact of Unconventional 

Energy Development

Model Suite

Future 

Expansion

Unconventional 

Energy Process

Socioeconomic 

Impact

Surface 

Water

Air 

Quality

Production

Process

Surface Water

Air Quality

Infrastructure

Socio-Economic

Start Code

Get Data

Final Code

Store Result

Model Integration