APPENDIX 16-A. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS
 

HIGH AND LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS
 

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

16-A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................16-A-1
 

16-A.2 POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS ...............................................................................16-A-1
 

16-A.3 EFFECT ON BUILDING EMISSIONS....................................................................16-A-8
 

16-A.4 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE EMISSIONS ......................................16-A-9
 

16-A.5 SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS.................................................16-A-10
 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 16-A.2.1 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 High Economic 

Growth Case.............................................................................................16-A-1 

Table 16-A.2.2 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 Low Economic 

Growth Case.............................................................................................16-A-1 

Table 16-A.2.3 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (High 

Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-3 

Table 16-A.2.4 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (Low 

Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-4 

Table 16-A.2.5 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating 

Equipment (High Growth) .......................................................................16-A-5 

Table 16-A.2.6 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating 

Equipment (Low Growth)........................................................................16-A-6 

Table 16-A.2.7 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (High 

Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-7 

Table 16-A.2.8 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (Low 

Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-8 

Table 16-A.4.1 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of 

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (High Growth) ....................16-A-9 

Table 16-A.4.2 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of 

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (Low Growth).....................16-A-9 

Table 16-A.5.1 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters 

(High Growth)........................................................................................16-A-10 

Table 16-A.5.2 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters 

(Low Growth) ........................................................................................16-A-10 

Table 16-A.5.3 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating 

Equipment (High Growth) .....................................................................16-A-11 

Table 16-A.5.4 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating 

Equipment (Low Growth)......................................................................16-A-11 

Table 16-A.5.5 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters 

(High Growth)........................................................................................16-A-12 

Table 16-A.5.6 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters 

(Low Growth) ........................................................................................16-A-12
 

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APPENDIX 16-A. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ANALYIS 

HIGH AND LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS 

16-A.1 INTRODUCTION 

The Environmental Impacts Analysis (Chapter 16) describes potential environmental 

effects that may result from amended energy conservation standards for residential heating 

products, modeled using the AEO2009 Reference Case. The appendix uses the same 

methodology described in the Environmental Impacts Analysis (Chapter 16), and provides the 

impact of amended energy conservation standards on Power Sector Emission, based on the 

AEO2009 High and Low Growth Economic scenarios. 

16-A.2 POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS 

Tables 16-2.1 and 16-2.2 show the AEO2009 high economic growth case power plant 

emissions in selected years. These tables display the emissions shown by the NEMS-BT model 

to result if none of the TSLs are promulgated (the base case). 

Table 16-A.2.1	 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 High Economic Growth 

Case 

NEMS-BT Results* 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

CO2 (Million metric tons/year)** 2,397.0 2,352.0 2,407.0 2,502.0 2,599.0 2,670.0 

NOX (Thousand metric tons/year)† 3,302.2 2,077.5 1,859.7 1,868.8 1,886.9 1,896.0 

Hg (metric tons/year)† 51.5 43.9 29.2 28.7 28.8 29.7 

* All results in metric tons, equivalent to 1.1 short tons and negative values refer to a reduction compared with 

the Base Case 

** Comparable to Table A17 of AEO2009: Electric Generators 

† Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Emissions 

Table 16-A.2.2 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 Low Economic Growth 

Case 

NEMS-BT Results* 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

CO2 (Million metric tons/year)** 2,397.0 2,324.0 2,356.0 2,406.0 2,430.0 2,510.0 

NOX (Thousand metric tons/year)† 3,302.2 2,077.5 1,859.7 1,868.8 1,859.7 1,877.9 

Hg (metric tons/year)† 51.5 43.4 28.9 28.4 28.0 28.3 

* All results in metric tons, equivalent to 1.1 short tons and negative values refer to a reduction compared with 

the Base Case 

** Comparable to Table A17 of AEO2009: Electric Generators 

† Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Emissions 

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Table 16-2.3 through Table 16-2.8 show the estimated changes in power plant emissions 

in selected years for all the TSLs. Changes in CO2, NOX, and Hg emissions from power plants 

are shown in these tables. The high growth economic cases do not show significantly reduced 

emissions because the generation savings are primarily in nuclear energy. The low growth 

scenarios show the greatest emissions savings because the generation savings are mostly in fossil 

fuels. 

Compared to the anticipated reference case emissions impacts forecast shown in Table 

16-2.2, changes in emission levels shown in Table 16-2.3 though 16-2.8 are extremely small. 

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Table 16-A.2.3 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (High 

Growth) 

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 High Growth Reference Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 

Extapolation Total 

2015-2045 

Standard Level 1 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.062 1.546 0.986 0.201 0.315 0.315 0.315 0.315 14.6 

NOx (kt/a) 0.055 1.195 0.737 0.146 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.223 10.8 

Hg (t/a) -0.004 0.005 0.006 0.005 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.251 

Standard Level 2 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.095 2.359 1.504 0.306 0.476 0.476 0.476 0.476 22.3 

NOx (kt/a) 0.084 1.823 1.123 0.222 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 16.5 

Hg (t/a) -0.006 0.007 0.009 0.007 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 -0.380 

Standard Level 3 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.107 2.664 1.702 0.347 0.542 0.542 0.542 0.542 25.2 

NOx (kt/a) 0.094 2.058 1.271 0.252 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 18.6 

Hg (t/a) -0.006 0.008 0.010 0.008 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -0.433 

Standard Level 4 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.116 2.897 1.854 0.379 0.592 0.592 0.592 0.592 27.5 

NOx (kt/a) 0.103 2.239 1.385 0.275 0.420 0.420 0.420 0.420 20.3 

Hg (t/a) -0.007 0.009 0.011 0.009 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.473 

Standard Level 5 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.27 2.84 -0.87 -3.37 -1.48 -1.483 -1.483 -1.483 -39.6 

NOx (kt/a) -0.24 2.19 -0.65 -2.45 -1.05 -1.053 -1.053 -1.053 -28.2 

Hg (t/a) -0.010 0.030 0.010 0.002 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 -0.643 

Standard Level 6 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.42 8.67 4.40 -2.04 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 51.4 

NOx (kt/a) 0.37 6.70 3.29 -1.48 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 38.1 

Hg (t/a) -0.002 0.070 0.051 0.024 -0.039 -0.039 -0.039 -0.039 -0.539 

Standard Level 7 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.85 17.75 8.96 -4.13 3.17 3.17 3.17 3.17 105 

NOx (kt/a) 0.75 13.71 6.69 -3.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 77.9 

Hg (t/a) -0.003 0.143 0.103 0.048 -0.079 -0.079 -0.079 -0.079 -1.10 

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons
 

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Table 16-A.2.4 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (Low 

Growth) 

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 Low Growth Reference Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 

Extapolation Total 

2015-2045 

Standard Level 1 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.102 -0.237 -1.359 -2.123 -2.485 -2.485 -2.485 -2.485 -61.1 

NOx (kt/a) 0.091 -0.187 -1.056 -1.625 -1.859 -1.859 -1.859 -1.859 -46.1 

Hg (t/a) 0.005 0.001 -0.007 0.005 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.211 

Standard Level 2 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.156 -0.361 -2.073 -3.231 -3.764 -3.764 -3.764 -3.764 -92.7 

NOx (kt/a) 0.139 -0.285 -1.610 -2.473 -2.816 -2.816 -2.816 -2.816 -70.0 

Hg (t/a) 0.008 0.002 -0.011 0.007 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.319 

Standard Level 3 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.176 -0.408 -2.346 -3.668 -4.280 -4.280 -4.280 -4.280 -105 

NOx (kt/a) 0.157 -0.322 -1.822 -2.807 -3.202 -3.202 -3.202 -3.202 -79.6 

Hg (t/a) 0.009 0.002 -0.012 0.008 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.363 

Standard Level 4 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.191 -0.444 -2.556 -4.004 -4.677 -4.677 -4.677 -4.677 -115 

NOx (kt/a) 0.171 -0.350 -1.985 -3.064 -3.499 -3.499 -3.499 -3.499 -86.9 

Hg (t/a) 0.010 0.002 -0.013 0.009 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.397 

Standard Level 5 

CO2 (Mt/a) -1.31 -6.74 -10.42 -12.80 -14.21 -14.215 -14.215 -14.215 -379 

NOx (kt/a) -1.17 -5.32 -8.10 -9.80 -10.63 -10.635 -10.635 -10.635 -287 

Hg (t/a) 0.035 -0.018 -0.058 -0.047 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 -0.707 

Standard Level 6 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.90 -1.82 -11.25 -18.46 -20.91 -20.91 -20.91 -20.91 -514 

NOx (kt/a) 0.80 -1.44 -8.74 -14.13 -15.64 -15.64 -15.64 -15.64 -388 

Hg (t/a) 0.005 0.023 -0.046 0.050 -0.022 -0.022 -0.022 -0.022 -0.995 

Standard Level 7 

CO2 (Mt/a) 1.84 -3.72 -22.89 -37.41 -42.59 -42.59 -42.59 -42.59 -1,046 

NOx (kt/a) 1.64 -2.94 -17.78 -28.63 -31.86 -31.86 -31.86 -31.86 -790 

Hg (t/a) 0.011 0.048 -0.094 0.102 -0.044 -0.044 -0.044 -0.044 -2.02 

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons
 

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Table 16-A.2.5 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating Equipment 

(High Growth) 

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 High Growth Reference Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Extapolation Total 

2013-2043 

Standard Level 1 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.003 0.039 0.138 0.174 0.237 0.237 0.237 0.237 5.24 

NOx (kt/a) -0.003 0.030 0.103 0.127 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 3.77 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.010 

Standard Level 2 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.003 0.043 0.153 0.195 0.266 0.266 0.266 0.266 5.87 

NOx (kt/a) -0.003 0.033 0.115 0.141 0.189 0.189 0.189 0.189 4.22 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.003 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.011 

Standard Level 3 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.004 0.052 0.187 0.239 0.328 0.328 0.328 0.328 7.21 

NOx (kt/a) -0.003 0.041 0.140 0.173 0.233 0.233 0.233 0.233 5.19 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.013 

Standard Level 4 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.043 0.071 0.351 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 11.04 

NOx (kt/a) -0.038 0.055 0.262 0.332 0.325 0.325 0.325 0.325 7.96 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 -0.001 0.003 0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.028 

Standard Level 5 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.047 0.078 0.385 0.504 0.505 0.505 0.505 0.505 12.18 

NOx (kt/a) -0.042 0.060 0.288 0.366 0.359 0.359 0.359 0.359 8.78 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.031 

Standard Level 6 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.115 0.189 0.937 1.217 1.213 1.213 1.213 1.213 29.36 

NOx (kt/a) -0.101 0.146 0.700 0.884 0.861 0.861 0.861 0.861 21.16 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 -0.002 0.009 0.010 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.074 

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons
 

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Table 16-A.2.6 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating Equipment 

(Low Growth) 

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 Low Growth Reference Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Extapolation Total 

2013-2043 

Standard Level 1 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.086 -0.175 -0.070 -0.075 -0.033 -0.033 -0.033 -0.033 -2.16 

NOx (kt/a) -0.077 -0.138 -0.054 -0.057 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -1.70 

Hg (t/a) 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.023 

Standard Level 2 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.096 -0.195 -0.078 -0.083 -0.037 -0.037 -0.037 -0.037 -2.41 

NOx (kt/a) -0.086 -0.154 -0.060 -0.064 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 -1.89 

Hg (t/a) 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.026 

Standard Level 3 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.116 -0.237 -0.095 -0.102 -0.045 -0.045 -0.045 -0.045 -2.95 

NOx (kt/a) -0.104 -0.187 -0.074 -0.078 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -2.31 

Hg (t/a) 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.032 

Standard Level 4 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.220 -0.458 -0.227 -0.176 -0.082 -0.082 -0.082 -0.082 -5.72 

NOx (kt/a) -0.196 -0.362 -0.176 -0.135 -0.061 -0.061 -0.061 -0.061 -4.49 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.007 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.153 

Standard Level 5 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.241 -0.503 -0.249 -0.194 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 -6.29 

NOx (kt/a) -0.215 -0.397 -0.194 -0.149 -0.068 -0.068 -0.068 -0.068 -4.94 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.008 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.170 

Standard Level 6 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.588 -1.226 -0.606 -0.470 -0.218 -0.218 -0.218 -0.218 -15.25 

NOx (kt/a) -0.525 -0.967 -0.471 -0.360 -0.163 -0.163 -0.163 -0.163 -11.98 

Hg (t/a) 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.019 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.407 

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons
 

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Table 16-A.2.7 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (High 

Growth) 

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 High Growth Reference Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Extapolation Total 

2013-2043 

Standard Level 1 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.000 0.003 0.011 0.011 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.319 

NOx (kt/a) 0.000 0.002 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.230 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 

Standard Level 2 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.001 0.005 0.020 0.020 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.548 

NOx (kt/a) 0.000 0.004 0.015 0.014 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.396 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 

Sandard Level 3 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.002 0.016 0.061 0.061 0.072 0.072 0.072 0.072 1.70 

NOx (kt/a) -0.001 0.012 0.045 0.044 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.051 1.23 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.010 

Standard Level 4 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.002 0.019 0.072 0.073 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 2.02 

NOx (kt/a) -0.002 0.014 0.054 0.053 0.061 0.061 0.061 0.061 1.46 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.012 

Standard Level 5 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.003 0.025 0.099 0.099 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 2.77 

NOx (kt/a) -0.002 0.020 0.074 0.072 0.084 0.084 0.084 0.084 2.00 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.016 

Standard Level 6 

CO2 (Mt/a) -0.006 0.054 0.210 0.211 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 5.88 

NOx (kt/a) -0.005 0.042 0.157 0.153 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 4.24 

Hg (t/a) 0.003 0.001 0.004 0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.034 

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons
 

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Table 16-A.2.8 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (Low Growth)
 

Nems-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 Low Growth Reference Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Extrapolation Total 

2013-2043 

Standard Level 1 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.000 -0.004 0.000 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.034 

NOx (kt/a) 0.000 -0.003 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.027 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 

Standard Level 2 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.059 

NOx (kt/a) 0.001 -0.005 0.000 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.047 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.007 

Standard Level 3 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.184 

NOx (kt/a) 0.002 -0.016 0.000 -0.015 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.146 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.022 

Standard Level 4 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.219 

NOx (kt/a) 0.003 -0.019 0.000 -0.018 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.174 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.027 

Standard Level 5 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.299 

NOx (kt/a) 0.004 -0.026 0.000 -0.025 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.237 

Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.036 

Standard Level 6 

CO2 (Mt/a) 0.01 -0.07 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.635 

NOx (kt/a) 0.008 -0.055 0.000 -0.053 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.504 

Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.077 

*All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons 

16-A.3 EFFECT ON BUILDING EMISSIONS 

For residential heating products, impacts on household emissions at the site are also 

reported. NEMS-BT does not account for these emissions at the site. The estimates given are 

based on exogenous emissions factors for residential natural gas combustion derived by the 

EPA’s AP-42 report in conjunction with the energy savings predicted by the national impacts 

analysis (NIA) model.13 Therefore, household emissions are not affected by the high and low 

growth economic scenarios because they are computed outside of the NEMS-BT model using the 

energy savings inputs. The different economic scenarios only effect emissions from the power 

sector. See the Chapter 16 (Environmental Impacts Analysis) for building emissions impacts. 

The emissions factors DOE used are derived from what is reported in the AP-42 for 

residential water heaters because no explicit listing was provided for the other heating products. 

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Given that emissions rates from end-use combustion are small compared to other emissions 

sources, it is not uncommon to see emissions factors from residential end uses reported in one 

general rate.14 a For these reasons, the Department opted to simply use the water heating 

emissions factor as a way of providing a rough estimate for the emissions savings associated 

with these efficiency standards, but acknowledging that these estimates are only general 

approximations. 

16-A.4 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE EMISSIONS 

Table 16-A.4.1	 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of 

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (High Growth) 

Pollutant 

Percent of Coal 

Combustion Emissions 

Percent of Natural Gas 

Combustion Emissions 

CO2 2.7 11.9 

NOx 5.8 40 

Table 15-A.4.1 shows a given percentage of emissions results. The high and low growth 

case scenarios affect power plant emissions. Upstream emissions will differ from the stimulus 

case depending on the effect on power plant emissions. 

Table 16-A.4.2	 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of 

Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (Low Growth) 

Pollutant 

Percent of Coal 

Combustion Emissions 

Percent of Natural Gas 

Combustion Emissions 

CO2 2.7 11.9 

NOx 5.8 40 

Table 15-A.4.2 shows a given percentage of emissions results. The high and low growth 

case scenarios affect power plant emissions. Upstream emissions will differ from the stimulus 

case depending on the effect on power plant emissions. 

a See section 3.2 of a AGA report. 

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16-A.5 SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 

Table 16-A.5.1	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters 

(High Growth) 

Environmental Effects 

Reference 

Case* 

Trial Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,950 28.1 44.7 42.1 39.8 115 (33.8) 193 

NOX (Thousand tons) 56,763 24.0 38.2 36.2 34.6 89.5 (23.8) 165 

Hg (tons) 866 0.251 0.380 0.433 0.473 0.643 0.539 1.10 

Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,950 (14.6) (22.3) (25.2) (27.5) 39.6 (51.4) (105) 

NOX (Thousand tons) 56,763 (10.8) (16.5) (18.6) (20.3) 28.2 (38.1) (77.9) 

Hg (tons) 866 0.251 0.380 0.433 0.473 0.643 0.539 1.10 

Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) - 42.7 67.0 67.3 67.3 75.1 17.6 298 

NOX (Thousand tons) - 34.8 54.7 54.9 54.9 61.3 14.3 243 

* The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy 

conservation standard. 

** Cumulative total is over 2015 to 2045 for water heaters. 

Table 16-A.5.2	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters 

(Low Growth) 

Environmental Effects 

Reference 

Case* 

Trial Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,950 104 160 173 182 454 531 1,343 

NOX (Thousand tons) 56,763 81.0 125 134 142 348 402 1,033 

Hg (tons) 866 (0.211) (0.319) (0.363) (0.397) 0.707 0.995 2.02 

Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,950 61.1 92.7 105 115 379 514 1046 

NOX (Thousand tons) 56,763 46.1 70.0 79.6 86.9 287 388 790 

Hg (tons) 866 (0.211) (0.319) (0.363) (0.397) 0.707 0.995 2.02 

Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) - 42.7 67.0 67.3 67.3 75.1 17.6 298 

NOX (Thousand tons) - 34.8 54.7 54.9 54.9 61.3 14.3 243 

* The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy 

conservation standard. 

** Cumulative total is over 2015 to 2045 for water heaters. 

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Table 16-A.5.3 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating 

Equipment (High Growth) 

Environmental Effects 

Reference 

Case* 

Trial Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 

Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 3.46 3.82 4.59 12.09 13.38 30.72 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 3.76 4.14 4.95 12.00 13.34 30.88 

Hg (tons) 895 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.028 0.031 0.074 

Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 (5.24) (5.87) (7.21) (11.04) (12.18) (29.36) 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 (3.77) (4.22) (5.19) (7.96) (8.78) (21.16) 

Hg (tons) 895 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.028 0.031 0.074 

Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) - 8.70 9.68 11.80 23.13 25.56 60.08 

NOX (Thousand tons) - 7.53 8.36 10.14 19.95 22.12 52.04 

*	 The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy 

conservation standard. 

**	 Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for direct heating equipment. Values in parentheses refer to emission 

increase. 

Table 16-A.5.4	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating 

Equipment (Low Growth) 

Environmental Effects 

Reference 

Case* 

Trial Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 

Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 10.9 12.1 14.7 28.8 31.8 75.3 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 9.23 10.3 12.5 24.4 27.1 64.0 

Hg (tons) 895 (0.023) (0.026) (0.032) (0.153) (0.170) (0.407) 

Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 2.16 2.41 2.95 5.72 6.29 15.25 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 1.70 1.89 2.31 4.49 4.94 11.98 

Hg (tons) 895 (0.023) (0.026) (0.032) (0.153) (0.170) (0.407) 

Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) - 8.70 9.68 11.80 23.13 25.56 60.08 

NOX (Thousand tons) - 7.53 8.36 10.14 19.95 22.12 52.04 

*	 The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy 

conservation standard. 

**	 Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for direct heating equipment. Values in parentheses refer to emission 

increase. 

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Table 16-A.5.5 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters 

(High Growth) 

Environmental Effects 

Reference 

Case* 

Trial Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 

Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 0.468 0.805 2.55 3.02 4.11 8.67 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 0.449 0.772 2.44 2.89 3.94 8.31 

Hg (tons) 895 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.012 0.016 0.034 

Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 (0.319) (0.548) (1.70) (2.02) (2.77) (5.88) 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 (0.230) (0.396) (1.23) (1.46) (2.00) (4.24) 

Hg (tons) 895 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.012 0.016 0.034 

Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) - 0.788 1.35 4.26 5.05 6.88 14.54 

NOX (Thousand tons) - 0.680 1.17 3.67 4.35 5.94 12.55 

* The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy 

conservation standard. 

** Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for pool heaters. Values in parentheses refer to emission increase. 

Table 16-A.5.6	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters 

(Low Growth) 

Environmental Effects 

Reference 

Case* 

Trial Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 

Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 0.822 1.41 4.44 5.27 7.18 15.2 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 0.707 1.21 3.82 4.53 6.18 13.1 

Hg (tons) 895 (0.004) (0.007) (0.022) (0.027) (0.036) (0.077) 

Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) 76,445 0.034 0.059 0.184 0.219 0.299 0.635 

NOX (Thousand tons) 57,080 0.027 0.047 0.146 0.174 0.237 0.504 

Hg (tons) 895 (0.004) (0.007) (0.022) (0.027) (0.036) (0.077) 

Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** 

CO2 (Million metric tons) - 0.788 1.35 4.26 5.05 6.88 14.54 

NOX (Thousand tons) - 0.680 1.17 3.67 4.35 5.94 12.55 

* The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy 

conservation standard. 

** Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for pool heaters. Values in parentheses refer to emission increase. 

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REFERENCES 

1.	 U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas 

Navigator. 2009. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm 

2.	 U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas 

Navigator. 2007. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm 

3.	 Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Navigator, December, 2009. Washington, 

DC. <http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PRS_cpgal_m.htm> 

4.	 U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy 

Outlook. 2009. http://eia.doe.gov/steo 

5.	 U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826 

Database Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenue Data, 2009. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia826.html> 

6.	 Energy Information Administration, Table 5. U.S. Average Monthly Bill by Sector, 

Census Division, and State 2007. 

2009<http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/esr/table5.html> 

7.	 Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Navigator: Adjusted Sales of Distillate 

Fuel Oil by End Use, December, 2008. Washington, DC. 

<http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_821dsta_a_EPD0_VAR_Mgal_a.htm> 

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