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© USIP 2012 • All rights reserved.

“[R]evolutions are 

never fairy tales. Nor do 

they create utopias, either 

instant or long term.”

December 18, 2012

Middle East in 2013: 

Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Summary

•	 The Middle East faces even bigger challengesin 2013 than it did during the first two years of

the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the

political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not

imminent either.

•	 More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful

uprisingsthat ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half

of the Arab world’s 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all.

•	 Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was

creating conditionsfor democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of

partiesin Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over

constitutions.

•	 Ancien regimes have not totally given up, asin Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even

the highest estimates, asin Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the“Arab

Spring”for one of many reasons.

•	 Neverthelessthe uprisings were never going to happen in one season. Thisisinstead only

the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the Westshould know from their own

experiences.

Background

The Arab world facestumultuous challengestwo years after the first uprising wassparked by

Tunisian street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire on Dec. 17, 2010 to protest

government corruption and abuse. But the four countriesin transition—Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and

Yemen—face different political, economic and security hurdles. The uprisings have so far produced

mixed results.

On the second anniversary, Egypt is consumed with a political crisis over a new constitution

and a deepening divide between Islamists and secularists. Tunisians confront historic unemployment rates and labor tensions. Libya isstruggling to reign in hundreds of militias and to reconcile

tensions between its eastern and western regionsthat threaten to tear the country apart. Yemen

is absorbed with launching a reconciliation dialogue before it can craft a new constitution or hold

parliamentary elections.

Robin Wright

E-mail: wrightrb@gmail.com

Garrett Nada

E-mail: gnada@usip.org

PEACEBRIEF138
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Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

page 2 • PB 138 • December 18, 2012

Several other Arab countries have witnessed protestssince late 2010. Virtually no country

istoday immune from budding or burgeoning opposition forces bidding to open up political

systems, whether in sheikhdoms orsocialiststates. In Bahrain,sporadic protests continue to

demand the ouster of a royal prime minister in power more than 40 years. Syria’s bloody uprising

against President Bashar Assad, which has claimed an estimated 40,000 lives, has been the most

traumatic—and will continue into 2013. Even after a denouement for the Assad dynasty,sectarian

rivalries could continue to destabilize effortsto create a new government in Damascus.

But revolutions are never fairy tales. Nor do they create utopias, either instant or long term. The

Tunisian street vendors who now work on the same corner where Bouazizisold orangessummed

it up pretty well in 2012:“We have more freedoms,”one said,“but we have fewer jobs.” The following is a rundown of political transitionsin four countries—in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen.

Egypt 

In 2013, Egypt faces what may be the most contentious electionssince the ouster of President

Hosni Mubarak. It will basically be a political re-do for a new parliament. But it also reflectsthe new

political divide acrossthe region. The poll will pit rising Islamist parties against the increasingly

embittered young and secular partiesthat launched the uprising in the Arab world’s most populousstate—but who now feel marginalized or excluded.

Egypt’stransition was especially rocky in 2012, after phased parliamentary elections concluded

in January and a presidential election in June. Islamists dominated the emerging politicalscene,

with two parties winning more than 70 percent in Egypt’slower house of parliament and a Muslim

Brotherhood candidate winning the presidency.

Egypt’s new government took surprisingly bold movesin both domestic and foreign policy.

President Mohamed Morsi, a U.S.-educated engineer, pushed the military back into its barracks

when he fired the top two senior military chiefsin August 2012. He also demonstrated loyalty to

the Camp David peace accords with Israel, working with the United Statesto establish a ceasefire

between Israel and Hamasin November. And he defied right-wing Salafis—hisIslamist flank—

about foreign aid from the International Monetary Fund to jumpstart the economy, ignoring their

claimsthat paying interest on loans was usury and forbidden under Islam.

But Egypt became more unstable in 2012 asit tried to craft a new order in a new constitution,

which only widened already deep fissures between secular and Islamist activists. The key issue

centered on the role of Islam in the new politicalsystem, but the mere process of trying to write a

constitution also became part of the controversy.

Egyptian courts dissolved the first constituent assembly in April and then the newly elected

parliament (through which constituent assemblies are formed) in June. In November, Morsiseized

wider power preventing the courtsfrom overruling his actions, claiming he wanted to prevent the

courtsfrom disbanding the second assembly tasked to write a constitution.

The power play sparked the most violent unrest nationwide since the ouster of Mubarak in early

2011. Tens of thousandsrallied both for and against the constitution in the run-up to the referendum in December. More than 30 opposition groupsjoined forcesin the National Salvation Front,

a coalition headed by former Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei, to demand that the

vote be deferred, the draft constitution withdrawn and a new constituent assembly formed.

Morsi called for dialogue, but the opposition refused to participate and encouraged Egyptians

to vote against the new constitution. After the first of two rounds, however, the constitution

appeared to be winning just over 50 percent approval.
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Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

page 3 • PB 138 • December 18, 2012

The new constitution cuts back the power of the presidency,since parliament must approve

the prime minister. It forbidsthe military from trying civilians. Itsays media outlets do not need

government approval and cannot be suspended, closed or their assets be confiscated without a

judicial decree. It allowsfreedom of worship for Christians and Jews, and their religiouslawsto

organize their civilstatus and religious affairs.

Butsecularists also complained that ambiguitiesin the law could allow Islamists excessive

latitude, especially on minority and women’srights. The constitution stipulated that Egypt’s

politicalsystem is based on democracy and the Shura, a form of Islamic consultation, potentially

opening the way for religiouslaw to infiltrate politics. It also made insulting the prophets of all

three monotheistic religionsillegal.

The vote for a new parliament istentatively expected two months after a new constitution is

adopted. Then the new parliament will have to begin dealing with Egypt’s enormous economic

challenges—in a climate of deep distrust.

Tunisia

Tunisia’s democratic transition has been relatively smooth compared to other countriesin transition.

Butitfacesthree major challengesin 2013—a crippled economy, a constitutionalreferendum, and

new electionsfor a permanent government—all in context ofsimmering secular-Islamisttensions.

Tunisia reflectsthe challenge from the young acrossthe Middle East, which hasthe largest

proportionate baby boom in the world. Their discontent both sparked and fueled the uprisings.

But they feel few benefitstwo yearslater.

Unemployment among Tunisian youth was around 40 percent in December 2012—so high

that“hittistes,”the Arabic word for those leaning against the wall, was used to describe the young

unemployed. Even more troubling, half of the unemployed young had college degrees.

Nationwide, unemployment was 17 percent—up from 13 percentsince the ouster of President

Zine al Abidine Ben Ali. Frustrations were reflected in November 2012 when protests erupted in

Siliana over poor living conditions and unemployment. More than 300 were wounded in violent

clashes with police. Protests and strikes by the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT) have become

also a frequent challenge.

The coalition government—led by the Islamist Ennahda party and including two secular

parties—appeared almost on the brink in late 2012. On December 9, President Moncef Marzouki’s

secular Congressfor the Republic Party announced that it might pull out of the coalition if the

Ennahda-led government refused to form a technocrat cabinet to tackle economic problems,

especially unemployment.

Vigilantism and violence by ultraconservative Salafis have also spawned political tension and

security problems. During 2012, Salafis destroyed Sufi shrines, attacked the U.S. embassy, harassed

alcoholsellers, and rioted over an artshow deemed insulting to Islam. Many secular Tunisians are

still notsatisfied with the Islamist-led government’s promise to crackdown on Salafis.

Debates also still raged over a draft constitution, especially on women’srights, media regulation,

and blasphemy laws. Asin other countries, a major issue was whether to invest political power

primarily in the parliament or an executive presidency.

But Tunisia managed to bypassthe debate over Sharia, the most contentiousissue in Egypt.

Ennahda leaders pledged to retain the language of the 1956 constitution that defined Tunisia as a

Muslim Arab country without reference to the role of Islam asthe basis of legislation.
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Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

page 4 • PB 138 • December 18, 2012

The Constituent Assembly is expected to vote on a final draft in the spring of 2013 before highly

competitive presidential and parliamentary electionsin June.

Libya

In 2013, Libya facestwo core problems:security and creating a state from scratch after Moammar

Qaddafi’s 42-year rule. The new government,slowly forged under Prime Minister Ali Zeidan in

October 2012, lacks meaningful authority without professionalsecurity forcesto ensure stability

and rule of law.

Libya has been trying to cope with 300 militias created during the eight-month uprising in 2011.

The government registered more than 240,000 armed gunmen in 2012. Some militias coordinated

with the central government. Others operated more like gangs and were tied to serious human

rights abuses. Few turned in arms, while many have rival political or regional intereststhey

still want to protect. An extremist militia was held responsible for the attack on the American

diplomatic mission in Benghazi that killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americansin

September. Libya also has a wider problem—an average of at least four weaponsfor each of its 6.5

million people.

The big political issue in 2013 will be the basic division of power—whether to create a strong

centralstate operating out of Tripoli or a decentralized state that divvies up power among two or

three regions. Many in the eastern province of Cyrenaica—home to about 80 percent of Libya’s

oil—favored either a federation or autonomy from Tripoli.

But unlike other Arab countriesin transition, Libya actually has abundant natural resourcesto

begin rebuilding the country in 2013. It hasthe largest oil reservesin Africa. And by December

2012, oil production was back to 90 percent of its capability under Qaddafi, with predictionsthat it

could soon set record new production.

At the same time, however, Libyan oil revenues also spurred even wider corruption than during

the Qaddafi era, Libyan officials have conceded. And foreign firms needed to help reconstruct

war-ravaged areas and develop the petroleum industry were reluctant to work in Libya because of

insecurity, creating a catch-22 for the most prosperous country in North Africa.

Yemen

No country in transition faces more challengesthan Yemen in 2013. Food shortages,sectarian

strife, tribal tensions, a secessionist movement, a divided army, al-Qaida extremists and rampant

unemployment have threatened to the tear the country apart over the past two years.

Yemen’stribes are just aslikely to fight over food and water asthey are over politicsin 2013.

Daily survival is a staggering problem in the Arab world’s poorest country. Nearly one-half of its 24

million people are food insecure. The collapse of public services and rise in food pricestriggered a

humanitarian crisislast September.

Yemen’s political transition hinges on a national dialogue conference, originally planned for

November 2012 by President Abed Rabbo Mansour al Hadi. Squabbling parties--which include

southern secessionists, Shiite insurgents, Sunni Islamists, rival tribes, youth, members of the former

ruling party and others—have yet to agree on the timing of reconciliation talks.

Once together, they will confront divisive issues beginning with drafting a new constitution, a

processfraught with rivalries between northern and southern factions. In the meantime, deposed

President Ali Abdullah Saleh—the only Arab leader not to flee, be arrested or die during the
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Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

page 5 • PB 138 • December 18, 2012

uprisings—isstill lurking in the background. The new government’s goal isto hold parliamentary

electionsin 2014, followed by presidential and local elections.

But the absence of basic law and order further endangersthe transition in 2013. Yemen is one of

the most heavily armed societiesin the world. And it is no stranger to civil war. Variousfactions and

tribal coalitions have been warring on and off since the 1960s. Al-Qaida hasthreatened Yemen’s

security since the late 1990s. The United Statesreportedly ramped up its drone campaign against

al-Qaida in 2012, helping Yemen’s army to push militants out ofsouthern towns captured during the

2011 uprising against Saleh. But new violence erupted in December, as al-Qaida allegedly carried

out a chain of assassinationstargeting security forces.

About This Brief

This peace brief provides an 

overview of four “Arab Spring” 

uprisings and a look ahead to 

the challenges of 2013. It was 

co-authored by Robin Wright, 

author of “Rock the Casbah: 

Rage and Rebellion Across the 

Islamic World” and a distinguished 

scholar at both the U.S. Institute 

of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson 

International Center for Scholars, 

and Garrett Nada, a program 

assistant at USIP’s Center for Conflict Management. Wright blogs at 

http://robinwrightblog.blogspot.

com and tweets at @wrightr.