## APPENDIX 16-A. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS
HIGH AND LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

16-A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................16-A-1 16-A.2 POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS ...............................................................................16-A-1 16-A.3 EFFECT ON BUILDING EMISSIONS....................................................................16-A-8 16-A.4 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE EMISSIONS ......................................16-A-9 16-A.5 SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS.................................................16-A-10

LIST OF TABLES

Table 16-A.2.1 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 High Economic Growth Case.............................................................................................16-A-1 Table 16-A.2.2 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 Low Economic Growth Case.............................................................................................16-A-1 Table 16-A.2.3 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (High Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-3 Table 16-A.2.4 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (Low Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-4 Table 16-A.2.5 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating Equipment (High Growth) .......................................................................16-A-5 Table 16-A.2.6 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating Equipment (Low Growth)........................................................................16-A-6 Table 16-A.2.7 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (High Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-7 Table 16-A.2.8 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (Low Growth)....................................................................................................16-A-8 Table 16-A.4.1 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (High Growth) ....................16-A-9 Table 16-A.4.2 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (Low Growth).....................16-A-9 Table 16-A.5.1 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters (High Growth)........................................................................................16-A-10 Table 16-A.5.2 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters (Low Growth) ........................................................................................16-A-10 Table 16-A.5.3 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating Equipment (High Growth) .....................................................................16-A-11 Table 16-A.5.4 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating Equipment (Low Growth)......................................................................16-A-11 Table 16-A.5.5 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters (High Growth)........................................................................................16-A-12 Table 16-A.5.6 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters (Low Growth) ........................................................................................16-A-12

16-A-i

## APPENDIX 16-A. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ANALYIS
HIGH AND LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS

16-A.1 INTRODUCTION

The Environmental Impacts Analysis (Chapter 16) describes potential environmental effects that may result from amended energy conservation standards for residential heating products, modeled using the AEO2009 Reference Case. The appendix uses the same methodology described in the Environmental Impacts Analysis (Chapter 16), and provides the impact of amended energy conservation standards on Power Sector Emission, based on the AEO2009 High and Low Growth Economic scenarios.

16-A.2 POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS

Tables 16-2.1 and 16-2.2 show the AEO2009 high economic growth case power plant emissions in selected years. These tables display the emissions shown by the NEMS-BT model to result if none of the TSLs are promulgated (the base case).

Table 16-A.2.1	 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 High Economic Growth Case
NEMS-BT Results*
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO 2 

### (Million metric tons/year)** 2,397.0 2,352.0 2,407.0 2,502.0 2,599.0 2,670.0
NO X 

### (Thousand metric tons/year) † 

### 3,302.2 2,077.5 1,859.7 1,868.8 1,886.9 1,896.0 Hg (metric tons/year) † 

### 51.5 43.9 29.2 28.7 28.8 29.7

* All results in metric tons, equivalent to 1.1 short tons and negative values refer to a reduction compared with the Base Case
** Comparable to Table A17 of AEO2009 : Electric Generators
† 

### Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009 : Emissions



## Table 16-A.2.2 Power Sector Emissions Forecast from AEO2009 Low Economic Growth Case
NEMS-BT Results*
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO 2 

### (Million metric tons/year)** 2,397.0 2,324.0 2,356.0 2,406.0 2,430.0 2,510.0
NO X 

### (Thousand metric tons/year) † 

### 3,302.2 2,077.5 1,859.7 1,868.8 1,859.7 1,877.9 Hg (metric tons/year) † 

### 51.5 43.4 28.9 28.4 28.0 28.3

* All results in metric tons, equivalent to 1.1 short tons and negative values refer to a reduction compared with the Base Case ** Comparable to Table A17 of AEO2009 : Electric Generators
† 

### Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009 : Emissions

16-A-1

## Table 16-2.3 through Table 16-2.8 show the estimated changes in power plant emissions in selected years for all the TSLs. Changes in CO 2 

## , NO X 

## , and Hg emissions from power plants are shown in these tables. The high growth economic cases do not show significantly reduced emissions because the generation savings are primarily in nuclear energy. The low growth scenarios show the greatest emissions savings because the generation savings are mostly in fossil fuels.

Compared to the anticipated reference case emissions impacts forecast shown in Table 16-2.2, changes in emission levels shown in Table 16-2.3 though 16-2.8 are extremely small.

16-A-2

## Table 16-A.2.3 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (High Growth)

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 High Growth Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 Extapolation Total
2015-2045 Standard Level 1
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.062 1.546 0.986 0.201 0.315 0.315 0.315 0.315 14.6 NOx (kt/a) 0.055 1.195 0.737 0.146 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.223 10.8 Hg (t/a) -0.004 0.005 0.006 0.005 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.251

Standard Level 2
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.095 2.359 1.504 0.306 0.476 0.476 0.476 0.476 22.3 NOx (kt/a) 0.084 1.823 1.123 0.222 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 16.5 Hg (t/a) -0.006 0.007 0.009 0.007 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 -0.380

Standard Level 3
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.107 2.664 1.702 0.347 0.542 0.542 0.542 0.542 25.2 NOx (kt/a) 0.094 2.058 1.271 0.252 0.385 0.385 0.385 0.385 18.6 Hg (t/a) -0.006 0.008 0.010 0.008 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -0.433

Standard Level 4
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.116 2.897 1.854 0.379 0.592 0.592 0.592 0.592 27.5 NOx (kt/a) 0.103 2.239 1.385 0.275 0.420 0.420 0.420 0.420 20.3 Hg (t/a) -0.007 0.009 0.011 0.009 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.473

Standard Level 5
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.27 2.84 -0.87 -3.37 -1.48 -1.483 -1.483 -1.483 -39.6 NOx (kt/a) -0.24 2.19 -0.65 -2.45 -1.05 -1.053 -1.053 -1.053 -28.2 Hg (t/a) -0.010 0.030 0.010 0.002 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 -0.643

Standard Level 6
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.42 8.67 4.40 -2.04 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 51.4 NOx (kt/a) 0.37 6.70 3.29 -1.48 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 38.1 Hg (t/a) -0.002 0.070 0.051 0.024 -0.039 -0.039 -0.039 -0.039 -0.539

Standard Level 7
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.85 17.75 8.96 -4.13 3.17 3.17 3.17 3.17 105 NOx (kt/a) 0.75 13.71 6.69 -3.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 77.9 Hg (t/a) -0.003 0.143 0.103 0.048 -0.079 -0.079 -0.079 -0.079 -1.10



### *All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

16-A-3

## Table 16-A.2.4 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Water Heaters (Low Growth)

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 Low Growth Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044 Extapolation Total
2015-2045 Standard Level 1
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.102 -0.237 -1.359 -2.123 -2.485 -2.485 -2.485 -2.485 -61.1 NOx (kt/a) 0.091 -0.187 -1.056 -1.625 -1.859 -1.859 -1.859 -1.859 -46.1 Hg (t/a) 0.005 0.001 -0.007 0.005 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.211

Standard Level 2
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.156 -0.361 -2.073 -3.231 -3.764 -3.764 -3.764 -3.764 -92.7 NOx (kt/a) 0.139 -0.285 -1.610 -2.473 -2.816 -2.816 -2.816 -2.816 -70.0 Hg (t/a) 0.008 0.002 -0.011 0.007 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.319

Standard Level 3
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.176 -0.408 -2.346 -3.668 -4.280 -4.280 -4.280 -4.280 -105 NOx (kt/a) 0.157 -0.322 -1.822 -2.807 -3.202 -3.202 -3.202 -3.202 -79.6 Hg (t/a) 0.009 0.002 -0.012 0.008 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.363

Standard Level 4
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.191 -0.444 -2.556 -4.004 -4.677 -4.677 -4.677 -4.677 -115 NOx (kt/a) 0.171 -0.350 -1.985 -3.064 -3.499 -3.499 -3.499 -3.499 -86.9 Hg (t/a) 0.010 0.002 -0.013 0.009 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.397

Standard Level 5
CO 2 (Mt/a) -1.31 -6.74 -10.42 -12.80 -14.21 -14.215 -14.215 -14.215 -379 NOx (kt/a) -1.17 -5.32 -8.10 -9.80 -10.63 -10.635 -10.635 -10.635 -287 Hg (t/a) 0.035 -0.018 -0.058 -0.047 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 -0.707

Standard Level 6
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.90 -1.82 -11.25 -18.46 -20.91 -20.91 -20.91 -20.91 -514 NOx (kt/a) 0.80 -1.44 -8.74 -14.13 -15.64 -15.64 -15.64 -15.64 -388 Hg (t/a) 0.005 0.023 -0.046 0.050 -0.022 -0.022 -0.022 -0.022 -0.995

Standard Level 7
CO 2 (Mt/a) 1.84 -3.72 -22.89 -37.41 -42.59 -42.59 -42.59 -42.59 -1,046 NOx (kt/a) 1.64 -2.94 -17.78 -28.63 -31.86 -31.86 -31.86 -31.86 -790 Hg (t/a) 0.011 0.048 -0.094 0.102 -0.044 -0.044 -0.044 -0.044 -2.02



### *All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

16-A-4

## Table 16-A.2.5 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating Equipment (High Growth)

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 High Growth Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Extapolation Total
2013-2043
Standard Level 1
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.003 0.039 0.138 0.174 0.237 0.237 0.237 0.237 5.24 NOx (kt/a) -0.003 0.030 0.103 0.127 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 3.77 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.010

Standard Level 2
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.003 0.043 0.153 0.195 0.266 0.266 0.266 0.266 5.87 NOx (kt/a) -0.003 0.033 0.115 0.141 0.189 0.189 0.189 0.189 4.22 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.003 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.011

Standard Level 3
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.004 0.052 0.187 0.239 0.328 0.328 0.328 0.328 7.21 NOx (kt/a) -0.003 0.041 0.140 0.173 0.233 0.233 0.233 0.233 5.19 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.013

Standard Level 4
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.043 0.071 0.351 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 11.04 NOx (kt/a) -0.038 0.055 0.262 0.332 0.325 0.325 0.325 0.325 7.96 Hg (t/a) 0.000 -0.001 0.003 0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.028

Standard Level 5
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.047 0.078 0.385 0.504 0.505 0.505 0.505 0.505 12.18 NOx (kt/a) -0.042 0.060 0.288 0.366 0.359 0.359 0.359 0.359 8.78 Hg (t/a) 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.031

Standard Level 6
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.115 0.189 0.937 1.217 1.213 1.213 1.213 1.213 29.36 NOx (kt/a) -0.101 0.146 0.700 0.884 0.861 0.861 0.861 0.861 21.16 Hg (t/a) 0.000 -0.002 0.009 0.010 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.074



### *All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

16-A-5

## Table 16-A.2.6 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Direct Heating Equipment (Low Growth)

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 Low Growth Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Extapolation Total
2013-2043
Standard Level 1
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.086 -0.175 -0.070 -0.075 -0.033 -0.033 -0.033 -0.033 -2.16 NOx (kt/a) -0.077 -0.138 -0.054 -0.057 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 -1.70 Hg (t/a) 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.023

Standard Level 2
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.096 -0.195 -0.078 -0.083 -0.037 -0.037 -0.037 -0.037 -2.41 NOx (kt/a) -0.086 -0.154 -0.060 -0.064 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 -1.89 Hg (t/a) 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.026

Standard Level 3
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.116 -0.237 -0.095 -0.102 -0.045 -0.045 -0.045 -0.045 -2.95 NOx (kt/a) -0.104 -0.187 -0.074 -0.078 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -2.31 Hg (t/a) 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.032

Standard Level 4
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.220 -0.458 -0.227 -0.176 -0.082 -0.082 -0.082 -0.082 -5.72 NOx (kt/a) -0.196 -0.362 -0.176 -0.135 -0.061 -0.061 -0.061 -0.061 -4.49 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.007 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.153

Standard Level 5
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.241 -0.503 -0.249 -0.194 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 -6.29 NOx (kt/a) -0.215 -0.397 -0.194 -0.149 -0.068 -0.068 -0.068 -0.068 -4.94 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.008 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.170

Standard Level 6
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.588 -1.226 -0.606 -0.470 -0.218 -0.218 -0.218 -0.218 -15.25 NOx (kt/a) -0.525 -0.967 -0.471 -0.360 -0.163 -0.163 -0.163 -0.163 -11.98 Hg (t/a) 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.019 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.407



### *All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

16-A-6

## Table 16-A.2.7 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (High Growth)

NEMS-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 High Growth Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Extapolation Total
2013-2043
Standard Level 1
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.000 0.003 0.011 0.011 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.319 NOx (kt/a) 0.000 0.002 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.230 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002

Standard Level 2
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.001 0.005 0.020 0.020 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.548 NOx (kt/a) 0.000 0.004 0.015 0.014 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.396 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003

Sandard Level 3
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.002 0.016 0.061 0.061 0.072 0.072 0.072 0.072 1.70 NOx (kt/a) -0.001 0.012 0.045 0.044 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.051 1.23 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.010

Standard Level 4
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.002 0.019 0.072 0.073 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 2.02 NOx (kt/a) -0.002 0.014 0.054 0.053 0.061 0.061 0.061 0.061 1.46 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.012

Standard Level 5
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.003 0.025 0.099 0.099 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 2.77 NOx (kt/a) -0.002 0.020 0.074 0.072 0.084 0.084 0.084 0.084 2.00 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.016

Standard Level 6
CO 2 (Mt/a) -0.006 0.054 0.210 0.211 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 5.88 NOx (kt/a) -0.005 0.042 0.157 0.153 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 4.24 Hg (t/a) 0.003 0.001 0.004 0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.034



### *All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons

16-A-7

## Table 16-A.2.8 Power Sector Emissions Impact Forecasts for Pool Heaters (Low Growth)

Nems-BT Results* Difference from AEO2009 Low Growth Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Extrapolation Total
2013-2043 Standard Level 1
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.000 -0.004 0.000 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.034 NOx (kt/a) 0.000 -0.003 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.027 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004

Standard Level 2
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.059 NOx (kt/a) 0.001 -0.005 0.000 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.047 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.007

Standard Level 3
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.184 NOx (kt/a) 0.002 -0.016 0.000 -0.015 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.146 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.022

Standard Level 4
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.219 NOx (kt/a) 0.003 -0.019 0.000 -0.018 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.174 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.027

Standard Level 5
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.299 NOx (kt/a) 0.004 -0.026 0.000 -0.025 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.237 Hg (t/a) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.036

Standard Level 6
CO 2 (Mt/a) 0.01 -0.07 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.635 NOx (kt/a) 0.008 -0.055 0.000 -0.053 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.504 Hg (t/a) 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.077



### *All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons



## 16-A.3 EFFECT ON BUILDING EMISSIONS

For residential heating products, impacts on household emissions at the site are also reported. NEMS-BT does not account for these emissions at the site. The estimates given are based on exogenous emissions factors for residential natural gas combustion derived by the EPA’s AP-42 report in conjunction with the energy savings predicted by the national impacts analysis (NIA) model. 13 

## Therefore, household emissions are not affected by the high and low growth economic scenarios because they are computed outside of the NEMS-BT model using the energy savings inputs. The different economic scenarios only effect emissions from the power sector. See the Chapter 16 (Environmental Impacts Analysis) for building emissions impacts. The emissions factors DOE used are derived from what is reported in the AP-42 for residential water heaters because no explicit listing was provided for the other heating products.
16-A-8

## Given that emissions rates from end-use combustion are small compared to other emissions sources, it is not uncommon to see emissions factors from residential end uses reported in one general rate. 14 a 

## For these reasons, the Department opted to simply use the water heating emissions factor as a way of providing a rough estimate for the emissions savings associated with these efficiency standards, but acknowledging that these estimates are only general approximations.

16-A.4 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE EMISSIONS

Table 16-A.4.1	 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (High Growth)

Pollutant Percent of Coal Combustion Emissions Percent of Natural Gas Combustion Emissions
CO 2 

### 2.7 11.9
NOx 5.8 40



## Table 15-A.4.1 shows a given percentage of emissions results. The high and low growth case scenarios affect power plant emissions. Upstream emissions will differ from the stimulus case depending on the effect on power plant emissions.

Table 16-A.4.2	 Estimated Upstream Emissions of Air Pollutants as a Percentage of Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions (Low Growth)

Pollutant Percent of Coal Combustion Emissions Percent of Natural Gas Combustion Emissions
CO 2 

### 2.7 11.9
NOx 5.8 40



## Table 15-A.4.2 shows a given percentage of emissions results. The high and low growth case scenarios affect power plant emissions. Upstream emissions will differ from the stimulus case depending on the effect on power plant emissions.

a 

### See section 3.2 of a AGA report. 16-A-9

## 16-A.5 SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

Table 16-A.5.1	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters (High Growth)

Environmental Effects Reference Case* Trial Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,950 28.1 44.7 42.1 39.8 115 (33.8) 193
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 56,763 24.0 38.2 36.2 34.6 89.5 (23.8) 165 Hg (tons) 

### 866 0.251 0.380 0.433 0.473 0.643 0.539 1.10 Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,950 (14.6) (22.3) (25.2) (27.5) 39.6 (51.4) (105)
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 56,763 (10.8) (16.5) (18.6) (20.3) 28.2 (38.1) (77.9) Hg (tons) 

### 866 0.251 0.380 0.433 0.473 0.643 0.539 1.10 Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons)

- 

### 42.7 67.0 67.3 67.3 75.1 17.6 298
NO X (Thousand tons)

- 

### 34.8 54.7 54.9 54.9 61.3 14.3 243 * The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy conservation standard. ** Cumulative total is over 2015 to 2045 for water heaters.



## Table 16-A.5.2	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Water Heaters (Low Growth)

Environmental Effects Reference Case* Trial Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,950 104 160 173 182 454 531 1,343
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 56,763 81.0 125 134 142 348 402 1,033 Hg (tons) 

### 866 (0.211) (0.319) (0.363) (0.397) 0.707 0.995 2.02 Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,950 61.1 92.7 105 115 379 514 1046
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 56,763 46.1 70.0 79.6 86.9 287 388 790 Hg (tons) 

### 866 (0.211) (0.319) (0.363) (0.397) 0.707 0.995 2.02 Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons)

- 

### 42.7 67.0 67.3 67.3 75.1 17.6 298
NO X (Thousand tons)

- 

### 34.8 54.7 54.9 54.9 61.3 14.3 243 * The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy conservation standard. ** Cumulative total is over 2015 to 2045 for water heaters.

16-A-10

## Table 16-A.5.3 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating Equipment (High Growth)

Environmental Effects Reference Case* Trial Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 3.46 3.82 4.59 12.09 13.38 30.72
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 3.76 4.14 4.95 12.00 13.34 30.88 Hg (tons) 

### 895 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.028 0.031 0.074 Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 (5.24) (5.87) (7.21) (11.04) (12.18) (29.36)
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 (3.77) (4.22) (5.19) (7.96) (8.78) (21.16) Hg (tons) 

### 895 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.028 0.031 0.074 Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons)

- 

### 8.70 9.68 11.80 23.13 25.56 60.08
NO X (Thousand tons)

- 

### 7.53 8.36 10.14 19.95 22.12 52.04 * The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy conservation standard. **	 Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for direct heating equipment. Values in parentheses refer to emission increase.



## Table 16-A.5.4	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Direct Heating Equipment (Low Growth)

Environmental Effects Reference Case* Trial Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 10.9 12.1 14.7 28.8 31.8 75.3
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 9.23 10.3 12.5 24.4 27.1 64.0 Hg (tons) 

### 895 (0.023) (0.026) (0.032) (0.153) (0.170) (0.407) Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 2.16 2.41 2.95 5.72 6.29 15.25
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 1.70 1.89 2.31 4.49 4.94 11.98 Hg (tons) 

### 895 (0.023) (0.026) (0.032) (0.153) (0.170) (0.407) Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons)

- 

### 8.70 9.68 11.80 23.13 25.56 60.08
NO X (Thousand tons)

- 

### 7.53 8.36 10.14 19.95 22.12 52.04 * The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy conservation standard. **	 Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for direct heating equipment. Values in parentheses refer to emission increase.

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## Table 16-A.5.5 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters (High Growth)

Environmental Effects Reference Case* Trial Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 0.468 0.805 2.55 3.02 4.11 8.67
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 0.449 0.772 2.44 2.89 3.94 8.31 Hg (tons) 

### 895 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.012 0.016 0.034 Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 (0.319) (0.548) (1.70) (2.02) (2.77) (5.88)
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 (0.230) (0.396) (1.23) (1.46) (2.00) (4.24) Hg (tons) 

### 895 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.012 0.016 0.034 Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons)

- 

### 0.788 1.35 4.26 5.05 6.88 14.54
NO X (Thousand tons)

- 

### 0.680 1.17 3.67 4.35 5.94 12.55 * The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy conservation standard. ** Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for pool heaters. Values in parentheses refer to emission increase.



## Table 16-A.5.6	 Environmental Impacts Analysis Results Summary for Pool Heaters (Low Growth)

Environmental Effects Reference Case* Trial Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cumulative Total Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 0.822 1.41 4.44 5.27 7.18 15.2
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 0.707 1.21 3.82 4.53 6.18 13.1 Hg (tons) 

### 895 (0.004) (0.007) (0.022) (0.027) (0.036) (0.077) Cumulative Power Sector Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons) 

### 76,445 0.034 0.059 0.184 0.219 0.299 0.635
NO X (Thousand tons) 

### 57,080 0.027 0.047 0.146 0.174 0.237 0.504 Hg (tons) 

### 895 (0.004) (0.007) (0.022) (0.027) (0.036) (0.077) Cumulative Household Emission Reductions** CO 2 (Million metric tons)

- 

### 0.788 1.35 4.26 5.05 6.88 14.54
NO X (Thousand tons)

- 

### 0.680 1.17 3.67 4.35 5.94 12.55 * The reference case reflects total cumulative emissions (power sector only) in the absence of an amended energy conservation standard. ** Cumulative total is over 2013 to 2043 for pool heaters. Values in parentheses refer to emission increase.

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## REFERENCES

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< http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia826.html >

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. 2009< http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/esr/table5.html >

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< http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_821dsta_a_EPD0_VAR_Mgal_a.htm >

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