AVIATION 

WORKFORCE

Current and Future 

Availability of Airline 

Pilots

Report to Congressional Requesters

February 2014

GAO-14-232

United States Government Accountability Office
United States Government Accountability Office

Highlights of GAO-14-232, a report to 

congressional requesters

February 2014

AVIATION WORKFORCE

Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots

Why GAO Did This Study

Over 66,000 airline pilot jobs exist for 

larger mainline and smaller regional 

airlines that operate over 7,000 

commercial aircraft. After a decade of 

turmoil that curtailed growth in the 

industry and resulted in fewer pilots 

employed at airlines since 2000, recent 

industry forecasts indicate that the 

global aviation industry is poised for 

growth. However, stakeholders have 

voiced concerns that imminent 

retirements, fewer pilots exiting the 

military, and new rules increasing the 

number of flight hours required to 

become a first officer for an airline, 

could result in a shortage of qualified 

airline pilots.

GAO was asked to examine pilot 

supply and demand issues. This report 

describes (1) what available data and 

forecasts reveal about the need for and 

potential availability of airline pilots and 

(2) what actions industry and 

government are taking or could take to

attract and retain airline pilots. GAO 

collected and analyzed data from 2000 

through 2012, forecasts from 2013 

through 2022, and literature relevant to 

the labor market for airline pilots and

reviewed documents and interviewed 

agency officials about programs that 

support training. GAO interviewed and 

collected data from associations 

representing airlines or their pilots, and 

pilot schools that accounted for about 

half of the students who graduated with 

professional pilot majors in 2012. GAO 

selected the airlines and schools 

based on factors such as size and 

location. GAO is not making 

recommendations in this report. The 

Department of Transportation and 

others provided technical clarifications

on a draft of the report, which GAO 

incorporated. 

What GAO Found

GAO found mixed evidence regarding the extent of a shortage of airline pilots, 

although regional airlines have reported difficulties finding sufficient numbers of 

qualified pilots over the past year. Specifically, looking at broad economic 

indicators, airline pilots have experienced a low unemployment rate—the most 

direct measure of a labor shortage; however, both employment and earnings 

have decreased since 2000, suggesting that demand for these occupations has 

not outstripped supply. Looking forward, industry forecasts and the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics’ employment projections suggest the need for pilots to be 

between roughly 1,900 and 4,500 pilots per year, on average, over the next 

decade, which is consistent with airlines’ reported expectations for hiring over 

this period. Yet studies GAO reviewed examining whether the future supply of 

pilots will be sufficient to meet this need had varying conclusions. Two studies 

point to the large number of qualified pilots that exists, but who may be working 

abroad, in the military, or in another occupation, as evidence that there is 

adequate supply. However, whether these pilots choose to seek employment 

with U.S. airlines depends on the extent to which pilot job opportunities arise, and 

on the wages and benefits airlines offer. Another study concludes that future 

supply will be insufficient, absent any actions taken, largely resulting from 

accelerating costs of pilot education and training. Such costs deter individuals 

from pursuing a pilot career. Pilot schools that GAO interviewed reported fewer 

students entering their programs resulting from concerns over the high costs of 

education and low entry-level pay at regional airlines. As airlines have recently 

started hiring, nearly all of the regional airlines that GAO interviewed reported 

difficulties finding sufficient numbers of qualified entry-level first officers.

However, mainline airlines, because they hire from the ranks of experienced 

pilots, have not reported similar concerns, although some mainline airlines 

expressed concerns that entry-level hiring problems could affect their regional 

airline partners’ ability to provide service to some locations.

Airlines are taking several actions to attract and retain qualified commercial 

airline pilots. For example, airlines that GAO interviewed have increased 

recruiting efforts, and developed partnerships with schools to provide incentives 

and clearer career paths for new pilots. Some regional airlines have offered new

first officers signing bonuses or tuition reimbursement to attract more pilots. 

However, some airlines found these actions insufficient to attract more pilots, and 

some actions, such as raising wages, have associated costs that have 

implications for the industry. Airline representatives and pilot schools suggested 

FAA could do more to give credit for various kinds of flight experience in order to 

meet the higher flight-hour requirement, and could consider developing 

alternative pathways to becoming an airline pilot. Stakeholders were also 

concerned that available financial assistance may not be sufficient, given the 

high costs of pilot training and relatively low entry-level wages.

View GAO-14-232. For more information, 

contact Gerald L. Dillingham at (202) 512-

2834 or dillinghamg@gao.gov.
Page i GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Letter 1 

Background 3

Data Are Mixed Regarding the Extent of an Airline Pilot Shortage, 

but Regional Airlines Are Experiencing Difficulties Hiring EntryLevel Pilots 11

Industry and Government Are Taking Some Actions to Attract and 

Train Future Pilots 32

Concluding Observations 44

Agency and Third-Party Comments 45

Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 48

Appendix II GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments 56

Tables

Table 1: Federal Roles and Responsibilities for Pilot Certification 

and Funding Aviation Training 9

Table 2: Agencies, Organizations, and Airlines Contacted or 

Interviewed 54

Figures

Figure 1: Number of U.S. Pilot Certificates Held by Type for Pilots 

under Age 65 from 2000 through 2012 21

Figure 2: Number of New U.S. Pilot Certificates Issued by Type 

from 2000 through 2012 22

Figure 3: Number of Graduates from U.S. Collegiate Professional 

Pilot Programs by Degree Type, from Academic Years 

2001 through 2012 25

Contents
Page ii GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Abbreviations

ATP airline transport pilot certificate

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics

CFI certified flight instructor

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

CIP Classification of Instructional Programs

CPS Current Population Survey

DOD Department of Defense

DOL Department of Labor

DOT Department of Transportation

Education Department of Education

ETA Employment and Training Administration

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

IPEDS Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

MPL multi-crew pilot license

OES Occupational Employment Statistics

RACCA Regional Air Cargo Carriers Association

SOC Standard Occupational Classification

STEM science, technology, engineering, and math

R-ATP restricted-privileges airline transport pilot certificate

VA Department of Veterans Affairs

WIA Workforce Investment Act of 1998

This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the 

United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety 

without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain 

copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be 

necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately.
Page 1 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

441 G St. N.W.

Washington, DC 20548

February 28, 2014

Congressional Requesters

The airline industry contributes to the U.S. economy by providing global 

mobility and connectivity in transporting passengers and cargo, as well as 

significant economic and social benefits to small communities. The U.S. 

airline industry operated more than 7,000 commercial airplanes in 2012, 

and there were over 72,000 pilots employed nationwide.1

Aviation stakeholders have voiced concerns that an insufficient supply of 

available and qualified pilots could develop because of imminent 

retirements, changes to qualification requirements for airline pilots acting 

as first officers, and perceptions that fewer people are entering pilot 

schools and fewer pilots exiting the military, among other reasons, thus, 

challenging airlines’ ability to fill the near- and long-term demand for 

pilots. In light of these stakeholder concerns, you asked us to examine 

the supply of and demand for airline pilots and potential market and 

government responses. Specifically, this report describes (1) what the 

available data and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential 

availability of airline pilots and (2) the types of industry and government 

actions that are being taken, or might be taken, to attract and retain airline 

pilots.

Since 2000, the 

aviation industry has experienced significant turmoil (e.g., the 2001 

terrorist attacks, the SARS epidemic, two recessions, and numerous 

mergers and bankruptcies) that has curtailed its growth. However, recent

industry forecasts indicate that the global aviation industry is poised for 

growth, and airlines around the world, including several domestic airlines

that are recalling their remaining furloughed pilots, have announced plans 

to hire several thousand new pilots in the coming years.

2

To address these objectives, we reviewed economic literature that 

describes how to evaluate labor market conditions, including identifying a 

 

1

Data on pilots employed were retrieved from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ 

TranStats Web site. 

2

GAO recently performed similar work focused on the supply of and demand for aviation 

professionals—including aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics 

technicians—see GAO, Aviation Workforce: Information on Current and Future Availability 

of Aviation Professionals, GAO-14-237 (Washington, D.C.: February 2014).
 

Page 2 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

labor shortage.3 Following the literature, we analyzed data from the 

Department of Labor’s (DOL) Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current 

Population Survey (CPS)—a monthly survey of households conducted by 

the Bureau of Census for BLS—on the unemployment rate, employment, 

and median weekly earnings (earnings) from 2000 through 2012. We also 

obtained data from BLS’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) 

survey for employment and wage earnings from 2000 through 2012. 

These data can be used as indicators of whether labor market conditions 

are consistent with a shortage. We used SAS, a statistical software 

application, to connect the BLS CPS data for 2000-2010 and 2011-2012 

by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) for aircraft pilots.

4

 

3

See Malcolm S. Cohen, Labor Shortages as America Approaches the Twenty-first 

Century (Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press: 1995); James Bell Associates for 

Department of Labor, Labor Shortages Case Studies, (Arlington, VA: 1993); and Carolyn 

M. Veneri, “Can Occupational Labor Shortages Be Identified Using Available Data?”

Monthly Labor Review (March 1999).

We 

analyzed how these indicators have changed over time, and whether 

these indicators suggest a labor shortage. To verify our results, we 

consulted with Malcolm Cohen, Ph.D., labor economist and author of the 

original methodology for conducting indicator analysis, and incorporated 

his comments as appropriate. We determined the data were sufficiently 

reliable for the purposes of our indicator analysis to provide context on 

the labor market. We also reviewed studies that projected the supply of, 

demand for, or employment for airline pilots. Each study was reviewed by 

one GAO economist to evaluate its methods, assumptions, and 

limitations, and this review was then verified by a second GAO 

economist. For one study, we replicated the analysis using data provided 

by the lead researchers. We determined these studies were sufficiently 

reliable for reporting purposes, and where relevant in this report, we 

described the limitations we identified in these studies. We reviewed data 

from the Department of Education (Education) on completion rates for 

degree or certificate programs that might prepare individuals to work as 

airline pilots; the Department of Defense (DOD) on the number of military 

pilots leaving the services; and FAA on the numbers of and types of pilot 

certificates and pilot schools. We also attempted to gather data 

projections for the next 10 years (2014 through 2023). To understand the 

4

We used the SOC detailed occupation 53-2011 for “Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight 

Engineers.” This number does not include individuals in the SOC detailed occupation 53-

2012 for “Commercial Pilots” who are not employed by airlines. The SOC system is used 

by federal statistical agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the 

purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data.
 

Page 3 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

extent that employers have had difficulty attracting or retaining airline 

pilots and whether steps were being taken to mitigate perceived 

shortages, we interviewed and collected data from various industry 

stakeholders, including associations representing airlines and airline 

pilots, mainline and regional airlines,5

We conducted this performance audit from March 2013 through February 

2014 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing 

standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to 

obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for 

our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe 

that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings 

and conclusions based on our audit objectives.

pilot training programs, industry 

organizations, among others. See appendix I for more information about 

our scope and methodology and a listing of the stakeholders we 

interviewed.

The U.S. airline industry is vital to the U.S. economy. Airlines directly 

generate billions of dollars in revenues each year and contribute to the 

economic health of the nation. Large and small communities rely on 

airlines to help connect them to the national transportation system. To 

operate as an airline carrying passengers or cargo for hire or 

compensation, a business must have an air carrier (airline) operating 

certificate issued by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), based on 

federal aviation regulations. Certification is determined by the type of 

commercial service being provided. Airlines that provide scheduled 

commercial service operate in accordance with Part 121 of Title 14 of the 

Code of Federal Regulations (CFR)6

 

5

Mainline airlines provide domestic and international passenger and cargo service on 

larger aircraft. Regional airlines provide domestic and limited international passenger 

service, generally using aircraft with fewer than 90 seats, and cargo service to smaller 

airports.

and are often grouped into two 

categories: mainline and regional. Mainline airlines include (1) passenger 

service providers, such as American and Delta that offer domestic and 

6

14 C.F.R. Part 121 prescribes rules governing the domestic, flag, and supplemental 

operations to hold an air carrier certificate. Scheduled-service airlines are generally issued 

a Part 121 certificate by FAA and operate turbojet-powered airplanes or airplanes with 

more than nine passenger seats or airplanes having a payload capacity of more than 

7,500 pounds.

Background
 

Page 4 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

international passenger service on larger airplanes, and (2) cargo service 

providers, such as United Parcel Service and Federal Express, that offer 

domestic and international cargo service. Regional airlines include (1) 

passenger service providers, such as SkyWest and ExpressJet, that offer 

domestic and limited international passenger service, generally using 

airplanes with fewer than 90 seats and transporting passengers between 

large hub airports and smaller airports, and (2) cargo service providers, 

such as ABX Air and Kalitta Air, that provide domestic and limited 

international cargo service on a charter or contract basis. Regional 

airlines generally provide service to smaller communities under capacity 

purchase agreements7 with mainline airlines, operate about half of all 

domestic flights, and carry about 22 percent of all airline passengers. At 

the end of fiscal year 2012, according to FAA, the U.S. commercial airline 

industry consisted of 15 scheduled mainline airlines and 70 regional 

airlines. According to available data, there were over 72,000 airline pilots 

employed nationwide in 2012. In addition to mainline and regional 

airlines, other smaller, commercial air-service providers offer scheduled 

and unscheduled service, via commuter or on-demand operations, and 

operate in accordance with Part 135 of Title 14 of the CFR.8

It takes many years of training and significant financial resources to meet 

FAA’s certification and aeronautical experience qualifications to become 

an airline pilot. FAA issues several types of pilot certificates that airline 

pilots progress through—including student pilot, private, commercial, and 

airline transport pilot (ATP).9

 

7

Under a capacity purchase agreement, mainline airlines contract with regional airlines to 

provide air service beyond the mainline airline’s route network to increase their capacity 

and revenue. Agreement terms vary, but mainline airlines generally take on all commercial 

functions, such as brand marketing, flight scheduling, and ticket pricing while the regional 

airlines are responsible for the aircraft and crews to operate the flights, and provide 

ground and flight operations.

Federal aviation regulations establish the 

core requirements for each pilot certification, including the eligibility 

requirements, aeronautical knowledge, aeronautical experience, and flight 

proficiency standards. Regulations also govern what pilots with each 

8

14 C.F.R. Part 135 prescribes rules governing the commuter or on-demand operations to 

hold an air carrier certificate. Nonscheduled-service airlines are generally issued a Part 

135 certificate by FAA and operate aircraft other than turbojet-powered airplanes having 

no more than nine passenger seats and a payload capacity of 7,500 pounds or less.

9

14 C.F.R. Part 61 prescribes the minimum training, knowledge, and experience 

requirements for acquiring a pilot certificate.
 

Page 5 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

certificate can do. For example, a private pilot certificate allows pilots to 

fly solo or carry passengers in any aircraft for which they are qualified, but 

not to fly for compensation; a commercial pilot certificate is necessary for 

a variety of non-airline pilot jobs. The ATP certificate is the highest level 

of pilot certification, requires the highest amount of cumulative flight time 

and is necessary to fly as a captain or first officer for an airline.

Airline pilots are mostly trained through FAA-certified pilot schools at a 

college or university—typically through 2- and 4-year degree programs—

non-collegiate vocational schools, or in the military. Outside of military 

training, where service members receive compensation while training to 

become a pilot, costs can vary significantly for individuals wishing to 

become a pilot depending on the number of certificates and ratings10 they 

wish to attain and the school or training program they choose. Generally, 

costs to attain a private pilot certificate averages about $9,500, according 

to the University Aviation Association.11

Until recently, regional and mainline airlines were permitted to hire first 

officers who had obtained a commercial pilot certificate which, among 

However, the academic 

education and flight training from a 4-year aviation degree program to 

obtain up to a commercial pilot certificate with additional ratings 

necessary to be hired as a pilot for commercial flying can cost well in 

excess of $100,000. Pilot students generally do not come out of collegiate 

and vocational pilot schools with the necessary requisites to attain an 

ATP certificate. Individuals will typically graduate from these schools with 

a commercial pilot certificate, and then they must gain experience by 

accumulating flight time and pass additional certification testing to obtain 

an ATP certificate. Similarly, upon separation from the military, military 

pilots would have to meet the same flight time requirements and pass the 

certification tests as a civilian pilot would in order to obtain an ATP

certificate, although they may be able to use their military flight time to 

meet those requirements.

 

10A rating defines the conditions or type of aircraft in which a pilot certificate may be used. 

In addition, endorsements by flight instructors may be given to pilots to further define 

conditions or specific aircraft not covered by ratings.

11The University Aviation Association is the representative voice of college aviation 

education to the aviation industry, government agencies, and the general public.
 

Page 6 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

other things, required a minimum of 250 hours of flight time.12 However, 

following the 2009 Colgan Air, Inc. crash, in New York, the Airline Safety 

and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 201013 mandated 

that FAA further limit the hours of pilot flight and duty time to combat 

problems related to pilot fatigue and increase training requirements and 

pilot qualifications for first officers. In January 2012, FAA issued a rule 

mandating that pilots have certain rest periods between flights and 

limiting the number of consecutive hours a pilot may fly.14 This rule 

became effective as of January 2014. In July 2013, FAA, as required by 

the law, issued a new pilot qualification rule that increased the

requirements for first officers who can fly for U.S. passenger and cargo 

airlines.15

 

12In commercial aviation, the pilot-in-command (captain) of an aircraft is the person 

aboard the aircraft who is ultimately responsible for its operation and safety during all 

phases of flight, as well as when it is operating or moving on the ground, in accordance 

with FAA’s regulations. The second-in-command (first officer) is the second pilot of an 

aircraft, and has the authority to assume command of the aircraft in the event of 

incapacitation of the captain. However, control of the aircraft is normally shared equally 

between the captain and first officer during flight.

The rule requires that first officers now hold an ATP certificate, 

just as captains must hold, requiring, among other things, a minimum of 

13Pub. L. No. 111-216, 124 Stat. 2348 (2010).

1477 Fed. Reg. 330 (Jan. 4, 2012).

1578 Fed. Reg. 42324 (July 15, 2013). The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation 

Administration Extension Act of 2010 also stated that in the event that FAA failed to meet 

the deadline for conducting the necessary rulemaking to implement a new requirement for 

all airline pilots to have an ATP certificate, the requirement would begin to automatically 

apply 3 years after the date of enactment of the law, or approximately August 2, 2013.

Pub. L. No. 111-216, § 216 (c), 124 Stat. 2348, 2367 (2010).
 

Page 7 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

1,500 hours of total time as a pilot.16 The law also gave FAA discretion to 

allow specific academic training courses to be credited toward the 

required hours of total time as a pilot.

17 As such, the rule included an 

allowance for pilots with fewer than 1,500 hours of total time as a pilot to 

obtain a “restricted-privileges” ATP certificate (R-ATP)—that is, to allow 

pilots to serve as first officers until they obtain the necessary 1,500 hours 

of total time as a pilot needed for an ATP certificate—when they meet 

certain requirements18

1. former military pilots with 750 hours of total time as a pilot;

and are:

 

16As required by law, in order to enhance the academic training and operational 

experience requirements for airline pilots, FAA created the ATP Certification Training 

Program (ATP CTP) to be a prerequisite for pilots to take the knowledge test to obtain an 

ATP certificate—to be effective August 1, 2014. Pub. L. No. 111-216, § 217, 124 Stat. 

2348, 2367. The program includes training in aerodynamics, automation, adverse weather 

conditions, air carrier operations, transport airplane performance, leadership, and

professional development. Also, the program requires that pilots receive 10 hours of 

training in flight simulation training devices: 6 hours in a Level C or higher full-motion flight 

simulator, and 4 hours in Level 4 or higher flight training simulation device. Further, to 

serve to as a first officer for an airline, a pilot with an ATP or R-ATP certificate must also 

obtain an appropriate type rating for the aircraft for which he or she operates for the 

airline. FAA’s new pilot qualification rule, in response to concerns about the lack of 

sufficient number of training devices to deliver the ATP CTP, stated there were currently 

407 FAA-evaluated Level C or higher full-motion flight simulator devices that replicate 

aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight at or exceeding 40,000 pounds. These devices 

represent 98 percent of all Level C and D full-motion flight simulators that have been 

approved by the FAA. Also, there were 81 Level 4 or higher flight training simulation 

devices. Based on FAA’s analysis of usage for these devices, FAA determined there was 

sufficient inventory of these devices available to accommodate the requirements of the 

ATP CTP training course, even with the moderate usage for training unrelated to the 

course.

17Section 217(d).

1814C.F.R. § 61.160(a), (b), and (c), respectively. An ATP certificate requires that a pilot 

be 23 years of age (14 CFR 61.153(a)(1)), have 1,500 hours total time as a pilot and 500 

hours of cross-country flight time (14 CFR 61.159(a)). To qualify for an R-ATP, a pilot 

must be 21 years of age (14 CFR 61.153(a)(2)) and have 200 hours of cross-country flight 

time (14 CFR 61.160(f)). The 200 hours of cross-country experience represents a 

significant increase over the 50 hours of cross-country flight time required for the 

commercial pilot certificate—the prior requirement to serve as a first officer in part 121 

operations. Pilots who hold an R–ATP certificate will be required to meet the 500 hours of 

cross-country flight time required in section 61.159 prior to having the limitation removed 

from their certificate. The rule also included a regulatory provision that allows a pilot who 

is at least 21 years old, and has 1,500 hours of total time as a pilot and 200 hours of 

cross-country flight time to be eligible for an R-ATP. 
 

Page 8 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

2. graduates of approved 4-year aviation degree programs with 1,000 

hours of total time as a pilot and meet other requirements;19

3. graduates of approved 2-year aviation degree programs with 1,250 

hours of total time as a pilot and meet other requirements.

or

20

As of January 24, 2014, 37 collegiate 2- and 4-year aviation degree 

programs have been authorized to certify graduates to be eligible to apply 

for an R-ATP certificate.

Although previously permitted to hire first officers with commercial pilot 

certificates, mainline airlines have generally required their first officers to 

possess an ATP certificate. Regional airlines, however, would frequently 

hire entry-level pilots as first officers who had completed training in 

collegiate and vocational pilot schools and held a commercial pilot 

certificate and an instrument rating21

 

19In order to qualify for the R-ATP with a minimum of 1,000 hours of total time as a pilot, 

the graduating pilot must hold a bachelor’s degree with an aviation major from an 

institution of higher education and complete 60 semester credit hours of aviation and 

aviation-related coursework that has been recognized by the FAA Administrator as 

coursework designed to improve and enhance the knowledge and skills of a person 

seeking a career as a professional pilot. 14 CFR 61.160(b).

after these individuals had gained 

additional aeronautical experience. Previously these graduates could 

work as first officers for regional airlines and build the additional flight time 

necessary to qualify for an ATP certificate, but under the new pilot 

qualification rule, they must attain this experience in other ways prior to 

being eligible to fly for a regional airline. As a result, FAA and industry 

stakeholders estimate it may take an additional 1-2 years for pilots 

coming out of school (roughly 6 years or more from the beginning of 

training) to accrue the required number of flight hours to qualify for an 

20In order to qualify for the R-ATP with a minimum of 1,250 hours of total time as a pilot, 

the graduating pilot must hold a bachelor’s or an associate’s degree with an aviation major 

and complete 30 aviation semester credit hours, who also receives a commercial pilot 

certificate and instrument rating, from an institution of higher education that has been 

recognized by the FAA Administrator as coursework designed to improve and enhance 

the knowledge and skills of a person seeking a career as a professional pilot. 14 CFR 

61.160(c).

21Instrument rating is the qualification that allows a pilot to operate an aircraft under the 

rules and procedures for flying solely by reference to an aircraft’s instruments (Instrument 

Flight Rules) instead of by visual reference (Visual Flight Rules). While an instrument 

rating requires additional training and instruction beyond what is required for a private pilot 

or commercial pilot certificate, it is not issued at a certain pilot certification level and is 

merely an operating privilege.
 

Page 9 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

ATP certificate.22

• Obtain a certified flight instructor (CFI) certificate which allows pilots to 

accrue flight hours while instructing new student pilots.

Options available to these pilots to build the necessary 

flight hours include:

23

• Become employed with Part 135 air service providers (i.e., commuter 

and on-demand, or non-Part 121 cargo operations) as a first officer, 

where a commercial pilot certificate (minimum 250 hours) is required, 

among other requirements.

• Become employed performing Part 91 operations—such as banner 

towing, crop dusting, and corporate flights.24

• Pay for flight time such as renting aircraft for flying or training in a 

flight simulation training device.25

• Work abroad for foreign airlines, or join the U.S. military and be 

trained as a pilot.

Several federal agencies have a role in supporting and developing the 

pilot workforce. As mentioned, FAA is responsible for the administration 

of pilot certification (licensing), among other things, and DOD, the 

Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), DOL and its Employment and 

Training Administration (ETA), and Education each have a role that may 

contribute to the availability of airline pilots (see table 1).

 

22This estimate assumes a total of 4 years to complete a collegiate aviation degree 

program, obtaining a commercial pilot certificate and instrument rating, and 1-2 years 

spent gaining the additional experience and number of flight hours to qualify for an ATP 

certificate.

23The holder of a valid flight instructor certificate may provide pilot training and instruction 

for pilot certification in any aircraft for which they are qualified. 14 C.F.R. § 61.183.

2414 C.F.R. Part 91 outlines the federal aviation regulations for the basic rules governing 

all flight operations. Pilots with commercial pilot certificates can be hired to operate aircraft 

under Part 91 for government operations (e.g., law enforcement, agricultural, 

environmental, and emergency response), banner towing, sightseeing operations, pipeline 

patrol, and corporate flights.

25Part 61 allows for a maximum of 25 hours of training in a full flight simulator representing 

a multiengine airplane to be credited toward the flight time requirement for an ATP 

certificate if the training was accomplished as part of a FAA-approved training course. 14 

C.F.R. § 61.159(a)(3). In addition, no more than 100 hours of the total non-airplane time 

towards the total time requirement for an ATP certificate which may be obtained in a full 

flight simulator or flight training device provided the device represents an airplane and the 

aeronautical experience was accomplished as part of a FAA-approved training course. 14 

C.F.R. § 61.159(a)(5).
 

Page 10 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Table 1: Federal Roles and Responsibilities for Pilot Certification and Funding Aviation Training

Agency Role

FAA FAA issues pilot certificates and ratings; sets requirements and oversees the training provided by FAA-approved 

collegiate and non-collegiate vocational pilot schools and testing; sets and enforces regulations for airline operations, 

including crew requirements.

DOD/VA U.S. airlines have historically recruited pilots trained in the U.S. military service branches. DOD also provides 

educational assistance to service members to help them enhance their professional development, which can be used 

for pilot training. VA also administers education benefit programs that can be used to pay for flight training for 

veterans who are interested in attending approved aviation programs.

DOL/ETA/BLS DOL-supported workforce-training services can be used to fund aviation training. BLS collects employment and wage 

data and develops long-term (10-year) employment projections.

Education Education provides financial assistance to support training in aviation-related fields.

Source: GAO analysis of government information.

Over the last decade, the civil aviation industry has been volatile because 

demand for air travel is sensitive to the state of the economy as well as to 

political, international, and even health-related events. As a result, despite 

periods of strong growth and earnings, the industry has at times suffered 

substantial financial distress resulting in the industry’s contraction. For 

example, in response to the 2007-2009 economic recession and resulting 

decrease in demand for commercial air travel, airlines cut capacity, 

downsized their fleets, and reduced their workforce. However, as demand 

for air travel has rebounded and is expected to grow, airlines are now 

looking to hire a substantial number of pilots. Further, the U.S. airline 

industry is concerned there will not be a sufficient number of qualified 

airline pilots to support this growth and a labor shortage will result. While 

no agreed-upon definition for a labor shortage exists, it is commonly 

described as a sustained period during which the demand for workers 

exceeds the supply of workers available and willing to work at a particular 

wage and in specific working conditions at a particular place.26

 

26A labor shortage is similar in definition to a “skills gap.” GAO recently reported that 

officials from BLS indicated the following conditions would be associated with a skills gap 

in a particular occupation: 1) jobs remain unfilled for a longer-than-normal time period, 2) 

wages are increasing, and 3) unemployment is low. GAO, Workforce Investment Act: 

Local Areas Face Challenges Helping Employers Fill Some Types of Skilled Jobs, 

GAO-14-19 (Washington, D.C.: December 2013).
 

Page 11 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Historical labor market data from 2000 through 2012 provide mixed 

evidence as to whether an airline pilot shortage exists. The 

unemployment rate for the pilot occupation—a key indicator for a 

shortage—has been much lower than for the economy as a whole, which 

is consistent with a shortage. On the other hand, wage earnings and 

employment were not consistent with the existence of a shortage, as data 

for both indicators showed decreases over the period. In looking forward, 

to meet the expectation of growth in the industry and to replace expected 

mandatory age-related pilot retirements, projections indicate the industry 

will need to hire a few thousand pilots on average each year over the next 

10 years. Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative 

to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available 

to work at wages being offered is unknown. Furthermore, the number of 

pilot certificate holders has not been increasing, and fewer students are 

entering and completing collegiate pilot training programs. Studies and 

analyses related to the supply of airline pilots find that a shortage may 

arise depending on several factors, including the extent of future industry 

growth, the wages being offered, and escalation in education costs. As 

airlines have started hiring to address growth demands and attrition, 11 of 

the 12 regional airlines we interviewed reported difficulties filling entrylevel first-officer vacancies. Mainline airlines, since they hire experienced 

pilots largely from regional airlines, have not reported similar difficulties, 

although mainline airline representatives expressed concerns that entrylevel hiring problems could affect the ability of their regional partners to 

provide service to some locations.

While no single metric can be used to identify whether a labor shortage 

exists, labor market data can be used as “indicators,” in conjunction with 

observations from stakeholders.27 According to economic literature, one 

can look at historical unemployment rates, as well as trends in 

employment and earnings.28

 

27A labor shortage occurs when demand for workers for a particular occupation is greater 

than the number (“supply”) of workers who are qualified, available, and willing to do the 

work at a current wage rate.

If a labor shortage were to exist, one would 

expect (1) a low unemployment rate signaling limited availability of 

workers in a profession, (2) increases in employment due to increased 

28All data on the unemployment rate, employment, and earnings come from BLS’s CPS 

unless otherwise noted.

Data Are Mixed 

Regarding the Extent 

of an Airline Pilot 

Shortage, but 

Regional Airlines Are 

Experiencing 

Difficulties Hiring 

Entry-Level Pilots

Some Historical Labor 

Market Data Are 

Consistent with the 

Presence of a Pilot 

Shortage, and Other Data 

Are Not
 

Page 12 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

demand for that occupation, and (3) increases in wages offered to draw 

more people into the industry.29 Of these three indicators, the 

unemployment rate provides the most direct measure of a labor shortage 

because it estimates the number of people who are unemployed and 

actively looking for work in a specific occupation.30 The BLS household 

survey-based CPS data used to evaluate these three indicators combined 

airline and commercial pilots into a single occupational category of pilots; 

therefore, we cannot isolate the extent to which the indicators apply to 

only airline pilots, although airline pilots represent about two-thirds of the 

employment within the occupation.31

According to BLS data we analyzed from 2000 through 2012, the 

unemployment rate of pilots has averaged 2.7 percent—a much lower 

unemployment rate than for the economy as a whole.32

 

29Cohen, Labor Shortages. In Cohen’s analysis, growth rates are calculated by computing 

the year over year change or annualizing the data; the resulting year-over-year change is 

then located on a scale from 1 to 7 developed by Cohen, where 1 corresponds to strong 

indication of a labor surplus and 7 corresponds to strong indication of a labor shortage. 

Rather than looking at annualized data, we calculated the change in average annual 

growth, since calculating the data this way allowed us to calculate the significance of any 

trends. Although this resulted in larger year-to-year changes, it did not affect our 

interpretation of any of the results.

This level of 

unemployment would be consistent with a shortage because it suggests 

few pilots during this time frame reported that they were looking for 

employment as a pilot and were unable to find it. Furthermore, in relative 

terms, over the entire period, the pilot occupation had the 53rd lowest 

unemployment rate out of the 295 occupations for which annual BLS data 

is available.

30Cohen, Labor Shortages. 

31The SOC for airline pilots includes those who pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing, 

multi-engine aircraft, usually on scheduled airline routes, for the transport of passengers 

and cargo, and commercial pilots are those involved in other flight activities, such as 

piloting helicopters, crop dusting, charter flights, and aerial photography. The BLS CPS 

data for unemployment, wage earnings, and employment combined both occupational 

categories, but the BLS OES survey subdivides its employment and earnings data for 

airline pilots and commercial pilots.

32For the economy overall, since 2000, the average unemployment rate has been 6.3 

percent, median earnings have not increased, and employment has stayed about the 

same.
 

Page 13 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Data on the other two indicators, wage earnings and employment growth, 

are not consistent with the existence of a shortage in the occupation. 

First, our analysis of BLS data from 2000 through 2012 shows that the 

median weekly earnings in the pilot occupation decreased by 9.5 percent 

over the period (adjusted for inflation), or by an average of 0.8 percent 

per year.33 According to economic literature, a positive growth in wages is 

required for a shortage to be present. So, by absolute standards, the 

findings for this indicator do not appear consistent with a shortage for 

pilots during the time frame.34

Second, for the rate of employment growth, our analysis showed 

employment for pilots has actually decreased by 12 percent from 2000 to 

2012, a decrease that is also not consistent with a shortage.

We also compared wages in this 

occupation to all other occupations and found wage growth for pilots has 

been low compared to other occupations. Specifically, the pilot 

occupation would be 187th out of the 250 occupations for which annual 

data are available. However, other factors can account for a decline or 

lack of growth in earnings even during a labor shortage. Earnings may be 

slow to adjust to other labor market trends, or certain aspects of an 

industry may prevent wages from increasing. For example, airlines may 

have limited flexibility to adjust wages for entry-level positions in response 

to a potential shortage due to seniority-based airlines’ pay systems in 

place for pilots and because airlines’ pilot wages are often negotiated 

contractually with labor unions.

35

 

33By changing the base year to 2001, for example, we would have estimated a different 

percentage change because the period was different. To ensure that these growth rates 

were not driven by our decision of the baseline year, we also estimated the average yearto-year growth by linear regression, and found similar results for annual growth rates of -

0.37 percent per year. However, the decline was not statistically significant.

As 

previously stated, the airline industry has experienced considerable 

volatility over the last decade due to recessions, bankruptcies, and 

merger and acquisition activities that have curtailed growth in the 

industry. By relative standards, the rate of employment growth for the pilot 

34As stated previously, a limitation of the CPS data is that both airline and commercial 

pilots are combined into a single occupational category. For wages, data from an alternate 

source, the OES survey found that airline pilots median annual wages fell by 23 percent 

from 2000 to 2012, after correcting for inflation, whereas commercial pilots’ median wages 

increased by 27 percent.

35As stated previously, a limitation of the CPS data is that both airline and commercial 

pilots are combined into a single occupational category.
 

Page 14 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

occupation ranked about 331st of the 490 occupations for which annual 

BLS data is available.

Our analysis of labor market data has a number of limitations given the 

nature of the CPS and OES data from BLS and the scope of our analysis. 

Occupations in the SOC system are classified using occupational 

definitions that describe the work performed and may not take into 

account specific requirements an employer seeks. For example, some 

airlines may require specific aircraft type ratings.36

• Data are collected through a household survey and are subject to 

sampling and response errors. Typically, one individual will identify 

occupation, employment, and wage data for all household members; 

individuals may report incorrect or inconsistent information.

We identified the 

following other limitations of the labor market indicators:

• Survey results of unemployment rates are based on the person’s last 

job, rather than the longest job held or occupation in which a person is 

trained or looking for work; the data therefore can miss individuals 

who are seeking work in a particular occupation. For example, airline 

pilots who lost their jobs, worked temporarily in another occupation 

(perhaps even within aviation), but considered themselves pilots and 

were seeking employment as pilots when surveyed would not be 

counted as unemployed pilots in the CPS data; rather, they would be 

classified according to the occupation they had held temporarily. 

• BLS collects data on earnings for pilots in all stages of their careers, 

so we could not examine whether starting earnings—which would be 

more likely to indicate if wages were rising to attract entry-level 

workers—have increased.

• Data are collected at a national level; while not all indicators were 

consistent with a labor shortage, our analysis would not identify any 

regional shortages.

• Research by BLS and others suggests job vacancy data as another 

potential indicator for identifying labor shortages. However, BLS does 

not collect information on job vacancies at the occupational level. 

Some job vacancy data are collected by some states and private 

companies, but the data are limited. We could not obtain complete 

 

36A type rating permits pilots to operate specific kinds of aircraft and can be obtained with 

the various types of pilot certificates. A type rating involves additional training and testing 

that is specific to the airplane for which the rating is being sought to enable a pilot to 

operate.
 

Page 15 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

and sufficiently reliable occupational-level job-vacancy data from 

these sources.37

Finally, as mentioned above, no single measure can provide definitive 

evidence as to whether a labor shortage exists. Rather, these data can 

indicate the extent to which employers may have difficulty attracting 

people at the current wage rate. Moreover, even if perfect data existed, 

the term “labor shortage” is sometimes used to describe a variety of 

situations, some of which are generally not considered to be shortages.38

For example, during periods of economic recession, employers may 

become accustomed to hiring a high caliber of candidate with specific 

training or levels of experience at a prescribed wage rate. In these cases, 

employers can be more selective when hiring from among the candidates 

for the position. However, during an economic expansion, when 

companies may be increasing the size of their workforce, it is likely that 

the number of job applicants will shrink and employers may have difficulty 

finding the same caliber of candidates that they could find during a 

downturn. Under these circumstances the employer’s challenge may 

become one of quality of available people, not necessarily quantity of 

people willing and able to do the job. Economic literature also suggests 

that to describe the nature and scope of any potential shortage, these 

indicators should be considered in conjunction with other information, 

such as trends in the industry that can affect the demand of and supply 

for qualified professionals and the hiring experiences of employers, which 

we discuss in the following sections.

 

37BLS conducts a Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey that provides a broad 

measure of job vacancies, but not by occupation.

38Carolyn M. Veneri, “Can Occupational Labor Shortages be Identified Using Available 

Data?” Monthly Labor Review (March 1999) 15-21.
 

Page 16 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

The number of pilots that U.S. airlines will need to hire will be driven by 

increases in passenger traffic (growth) and replacements for retiring and 

attriting pilots. Several reports have projected the need for pilots in the 

future. Audries Aircraft Analysis—an aviation industry analysis firm—

developed a forecast of pilot needs over the next 10 years based on 

forecasts of new aircraft orders and expected deliveries from aircraft 

manufacturers Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer.39 Using industry averages 

for numbers of pilots needed per plane, the forecast determines how 

many pilots will be needed to accommodate the projected fleet growth, 

and couples this number with industry data regarding expected 

retirements. An academic study conducted by researchers from six 

universities, led by researchers from the University of North Dakota, 

forecasts the demand for pilots using similar techniques.40 FAA also 

projects the need for pilots based on forecasts of growth in passenger 

demand and expected retirements. While these projections are helpful in 

gaining a sense for potential changes in aviation employment, developing 

long-term occupational employment projections is inherently uncertain for 

a variety of reasons. Most importantly, each projection relies on a set of 

assumptions about the future, some of which may not come to fruition. 

For example, the projections discussed above relied on assumptions of 

continued economic growth, but if a recession or other unexpected 

economic event were to occur, the projections for employment are likely 

to be overstated.41

• Audries Aircraft Analysis developed pilot demand forecasts based 

on aircraft manufacturers’ forecasts of fleet growth. Each 

These projections vary in their results and based on 

those results, we estimated that a range of roughly 1,900 to 4,500 new 

pilots will be needed to be hired on average annually over the next 10 

years, as follows:

 

39See Audries Aircraft Analysis, Pilot Demand Projections/Analysis for the Next 10 Years: 

Full Model (2013).

40See Lovelace, Higgins, et al, An Investigation of the United States Airline Pilot Labor 

Supply (University of North Dakota, 2013). In 2012, various stakeholders within the 

aviation industry formed a group to analyze the current state of the pilot labor supply for 

U.S. airlines. Within this stakeholders group, a subgroup of collegiate aviation researchers 

formed to provide the scientific research related to this topic, and included researchers 

from the University of Nebraska Omaha; Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University; Southern 

Illinois University; LeTourneau University; and Middle Tennessee State University. 

41The BLS projections relied on a basic assumption of an economy with full employment 

in the projected year.

Projected Employment 

Growth and Retirements 

Suggest the Need for an 

Average of a Few 

Thousand New Pilots a 

Year over the Next 

Decade
 

Page 17 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

manufacturer uses a slightly different method to create its forecasts. 

For example, some projections include certain cargo aircraft, and 

some do not. Despite the differences in methods, the fleet growth 

forecasts yielded similar results. Each forecast resulted in the 

projected need for pilots steadily rising over the next 10 years to 

accommodate growth and replacement of retiring and attriting pilots. 

Annually averaged, the Embraer forecast resulted in a projection of 

about 2,900 new pilots needed per year over the next decade; the 

Boeing forecast resulted in about 3,300 new pilots, and the Airbus 

forecast resulted in about 3,900 new pilots. It is important to note that 

these forecasts encompass the entire North American market and are 

not specific to the United States. In addition, the Boeing forecast 

projected demand for 498,000 new airline pilots worldwide over the 

next 20 years. The effect of this global demand for pilots may also 

have an effect on the available supply of pilots for U.S. airlines in the 

future, as foreign airlines also recruit U.S. pilots.

• Academic study led by the University of North Dakota estimated 

demand for pilots for roughly the next 20 years in its study of airline 

pilot labor supply. This study derived demand based on industry 

growth, retirements, and attrition for reasons other than retirements. 

Industry growth was derived from forecasts of new aircraft from the 

Airline Monitor42 and estimates of the average number of pilots 

needed per aircraft. Expected retirements came from industry data, 

and the study used an estimate of an attrition rate for reasons other 

than retirement of 1.5 percent. The study estimates that the industry 

would need to hire over 95,000 new pilots over about the next 20 

years, with about 45,000 being needed in the next 10 years, for an 

annual average of about 4,500 over the next decade.

• FAA 2013 forecast projects that passenger demand for U.S. airlines 

over the next 20 years will grow at an average 2.2 percent per year 

through 2033, with slow or no growth expected in 2013 and slight 

growth over the next 5 years assuming the U.S. economy grows at a 

faster rate.43

 

42The Airline Monitor is a commercially available aircraft forecast used by financial 

companies and other businesses who rely upon forecast information for strategic planning 

purposes.

To account for this industry growth and to replace retiring 

pilots, FAA projects that about 70,000 new pilots with an ATP 

43FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033 (2013).
 

Page 18 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

certificate through 2032 will be needed.44 This equates to an average 

need for about 3,400 new pilots annually over the next 10 years.

• BLS Employment Projections 2012–2022 assumes a 6.6 percent 

net decrease in employment in the overall number of airline pilot 

positions through the year 2022—which equated to about 4,400 fewer 

pilot jobs over the time period. This is in contrast with the average 

expected occupational growth of 10.8 percent for all occupations for 

this period. Based on the employment projection, we calculated that 

an average of 440 pilot jobs will be lost annually through 2022. 

However, while fewer airline pilot jobs will exist during the 10-year 

period, BLS also projects, at the same time, 19,200 airline pilot job 

openings, or an annual average of 1,920 openings, that may be 

available to be filled due to retirements and attrition. The BLS 

employment projections assume that growth in supply will be 

adequate to meet the demand, and so the analysis is not designed to 

forecast whether a labor shortage might develop in any given 

occupation.

In addition to the need for airlines to hire new pilots based on industry 

growth and replacement of retirements, FAA’s new rule on pilot flight and 

duty time may engender a one-time staffing adjustment for airlines. 

Current crew schedules can vary by airline, the labor contract involved, 

and the number of pilots assigned to operate each aircraft, and airlines 

we interviewed varied in their estimates of how many additional pilots 

they would be need to meet the new requirements. Airlines’ estimates 

ranged from no effect on the number of pilots needed to 15 percent 

increase in the number of pilots needed as of January 2014.

While these projections suggest the need for between roughly 1,900 and 

4,500 new pilots on an average annual basis over the next 10 years, we 

cannot indicate with any level of certainty the actual number of new airline 

pilots that will be needed or hired in the future. Airlines make a variety of 

 

44FAA, Final Regulatory Evaluation Pilot Certification and Qualification Requirements for 

Air Carrier Operations Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, Economic Analysis Division 

(APO-300) (June 2013). FAA’s projection started with 78,728 pilots being employed by 

airlines at the end of 2011. FAA then projected that the number of airline pilots is 

estimated to grow at a forecast rate of 0.6 percent each year. The number of retiring pilots 

was calculated by multiplying the number of pilots in the previous year by an estimated 

retirement rate of 3.6 percent. The number of new pilots was calculated as the annual 

change in the number of pilots plus the change in the number of retiring pilots to account 

for replacement pilots.
 

Page 19 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

business decisions to meet passenger demand for airlines’ operations 

that could affect the number of pilots that the airlines would need or are 

able to hire. According to information provided by eight mainline airlines, 

they expect to hire about 20,800 new pilots from 2014 through 2023.

Accordingly, several mainline airlines have announced plans to recall all 

of their remaining furloughed pilots or begin new hiring efforts. For 

example, in September 2013, United issued recall notices to its remaining 

600 furloughed pilots. According to United representatives, it has also 

started hiring new pilots with an initial goal of about 60 pilots a month to 

address the airline’s projected future needs. While American and Delta 

had already recalled all of their furloughed pilots, each announced plans

for future hiring. In October 2013, American announced plans to hire 

1,500 pilots over 5 years. Delta planned to hire 300 pilots in November 

2013 and expects to hire about 50 pilots per month through September 

2014. Several regional airlines we spoke to have also been actively hiring 

new pilots. For example, since March 2013, ExpressJet has hired from 32 

to 48 pilots monthly. Also, representatives of American Eagle told us that 

they expect to hire an average of 250 pilots per year for the next 10 

years.

While there were over 72,000 airline pilots employed in 2012, FAA data

show a total of 137,658 active pilots under the age of 65 who held ATP 

certificates, as of January 6, 2014.45

 

45An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate. Pilots are 

required to obtain a medical certificate that indicates they have passed a physical exam by 

a FAA-authorized doctor. 14 CFR 61.23. To remain current for most types of pilot 

certificates, pilots must undergo a medical examination at various intervals. While airline 

captains must hold first-class medical certificates—requiring the most extensive medical 

examination—which must be renewed every 12 months for pilots under age 40 and every 

six months for pilots age 40 and over, first officers are allowed to hold second-class 

medical certificates which must be renewed every 12 months for all pilots regardless of 

age. 14 CFR 61.23(d). FAA data show a total of 109,465 currently active pilots under age 

65 with a first class medical certificate holding ATP certificates, as of January 30, 2014. 

We excluded the number of certificates held by pilots age 65 and older because they 

would not be allowed to work as airline pilots due to mandatory age retirement.

This large pool of ATP certificate 

holders, however, can include pilots who are not available for work or are 

Data and Studies of Pilot 

Supply Provide Some 

Evidence of the Potential 

for a Shortage to Emerge

Pools of Certificate Holders 

Are Large Relative to 

Employment, but Are Not 

Increasing
 

Page 20 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

not suitable or competent to act as pilots in airline operations on large jetpowered aircraft. Data were not available to determine or verify how many 

active ATP certificate holders were otherwise employed. The pilots not 

employed by airlines may also be serving as pilots in the U.S. military, 

employed as pilots in non-airline operations, employed by foreign airlines, 

employed in non-pilot jobs in the aviation industry, or working in nonaviation careers. With respect to pilots holding FAA pilot certificates and 

potentially working for foreign airlines, in 2012 according to FAA data, 

about 7,858 pilots with ATP certificates (or about 5 percent of the total 

number of pilots with ATP certificates) and about 15,994 pilots with 

commercial certificates (or about14 percent of the total number of pilots 

with commercial pilot certificates) are listed with a documented residence 

outside of the United States.

In addition to ATP certificate holders, a large population of commercial 

pilot certificate holders with instrument ratings also exists. In 2012, for 

instance, a total of over 116,000 pilots held commercial pilot certificates 

and about 105,000 of these pilots also held an instrument rating. While 

not currently qualified to be airline pilots, future ATP certificate holders 

typically come from this pool, and the instrument ratings held by some of 

these individuals suggest that they may be on a pathway to qualifying for 

an ATP certificate. According to FAA officials, the number of pilots holding 

an instrument rating is a good indicator for forecasting pilots who are 

more likely to seek an ATP certificate because an instrument rating is a 

requirement of ATP certification; an instrument rating is not, however, a 

requirement to hold a commercial pilot certificate.46

While these pools of existing ATP and commercial pilot certificate holders 

exist, the pools have remained relatively flat since 2000 (see fig. 1).

• The number of pilots under age 65 holding active ATP certificates 

decreased about 1 percent from 2000 through 2012, while the number 

of new certificates issued annually decreased 17 percent during this 

period (7,715 to 6,396) (see fig. 2). However, new issuance of ATP 

certificates has increased since 2010, an increase that would be 

expected given that the new pilot qualification rule took effect in July 

2013.

 

46FAA forecasts future ATP certificate holders based on historical trends in pilots with 

instrument rating and the number of aircraft in the commercial jet fleet.
 

Page 21 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

• Commercial pilot certificate holders under age 65 increased 4 percent 

from 2000 through 2012. The number of new certificates issued each 

year averaged about 9,900 over this time period.47

Figure 1: Number of U.S. Pilot Certificates Held by Type for Pilots under Age 65 from 2000 through 2012 

Note: Our study concerns airline pilots. We excluded all pilots who were 65 years and older because 

U.S. law requires airline pilots to retire at age 65.

 

47While commercial and ATP certificate pools have remained steady, the number of pilots 

under age 65 holding private pilot certificates decreased 24 percent from 2000 through 

2012, while the number of new certificates issued was 39 percent lower in 2012 than 2000 

(16,571 compared to 27,223).
 

Page 22 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Figure 2: Number of New U.S. Pilot Certificates Issued by Type from 2000 through 2012

We note that these populations of pilots holding active commercial and 

ATP certificates, while currently relatively large, have been larger in the 

past. Also, when mainline airlines increase pilot hiring, the rate at which 

new pilots enter the pipeline would likely increase, as would the rate at 

which pilots holding commercial pilot certificates upgrade to ATP 

certificates. To illustrate, from 1990 through 2000, mainline airlines hired 

about 31,300 pilots.48

 

48Data from 1990 through 2012 was gathered from Future and Active Pilot Advisors 

(FAPA.aero), a career and financial advisory service for pilots and aspirants, for the 

historical hiring of pilots at major airlines.

During that period, the number of ATP certificates 

held increased by roughly the same number—from 107,732 to 141,596—

while the number of commercial pilot certificates held also decreased by 

roughly the same amount—from 149,666 to 121,858. In contrast, when 

hiring slowed from 2001 through 2012 and mainline airlines hired about 

16,900 pilots, there was a decrease in the total number of airline pilot jobs

and the number of ATP certificates held increased only slightly—from 
 

Page 23 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

144,702 to 145,590—while the number of commercial pilot certificates 

held actually decreased—from 120,502 to 116,400. The average number 

of new commercial pilots certificates issued each year was also lower in 

this period (9,780) compared to the 1990’s (11,688).

The number of flight instructors is another predictor of individuals moving 

through the pipeline to becoming an airline pilot. The number of pilots 

under age 65 holding active flight instructor certificates increased 13 

percent from 2000 through 2012 (see fig. 1), while the number of new 

flight instructor certificates issued each year averaged about 4,700 over 

this period and remained relatively flat (see fig. 2). Under the new pilot 

qualification rule, aspiring pilots must accrue more flight hours than was 

the case in the past, and stakeholders expect that flight instruction is 

likely to be one of the primary means of attaining these hours. This 

means that new pilot graduates who decide to work as flight instructors to 

gain hours will need to hold such positions for a longer period of time. If 

this occurs, flight instructor turnover will be slower and new pilot 

graduates may have more difficulty finding flight instructor positions. On 

the other hand, representatives of three of the pilot schools we spoke to 

told us that they are currently facing a shortage of qualified flight 

instructors.

Available evidence suggests that fewer students are entering and 

completing pilot training since 2001. According to Education’s data, the 

cumulative number of graduates (completions) of undergraduate 

professional pilot-degree programs—those most likely to pursue a career 

as an airline pilot—decreased about 23 percent from academic years 

2000-2001 through 2011-2012 (see fig. 3).49 Although data on 

enrollments are not available, representatives from most of the collegiate 

and vocational pilot schools we interviewed told us their schools have 

experienced declines in undergraduate enrollments over the last 10 

years.50

 

49The Education data contains a small number of non-collegiate vocational schools that 

do not participate in federal student aid programs. It is possible that a small number of 

these schools are captured in our analysis if they offer pilot training programs related to 

the airline pilot occupation for which we collected data.

Further, representatives of the 10 collegiate aviation and 2 noncollegiate vocational pilot schools reported waning interest among current 

and prospective students wanting to pursue professional pilot education. 

50Data on enrollments in pilot education programs nationally are not available. 

Enrollments in and 

Graduations from Pilot 

Programs Appear to Be 

Declining
 

Page 24 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

According to these representatives, the airline pilot career has lost some 

of its historical appeal for young people over the last 10 years due to a 

variety of factors, including increases in education costs, limited sources 

of financial assistance, negative perceptions of working conditions and 

wages for new pilots, and a perceived lack of stability in the industry. In 

addition, according to these representatives, the new first officer 

qualification requirements have also had some impact on student 

perceptions.

The new requirements mean pilots must spend additional time accruing 

flight hours (i.e., 1-2 additional years) prior to being qualified to apply to 

an airline, during the time when new pilots may be receiving relatively low 

wages (for example, according to the Aircraft Owners and Pilots 

Association, flight instructors typically make less than $20,000 per year),51

 

51Flight instructors’ pay is generally based on the number of hours that can be billed for 

providing instruction and whether they are employed part time or full time. According to 

FAA, full-time flight instructors can, in many instances, make more than a regional airline 

first officer, depending on demand for pilot instruction in a local area.

and students are facing a longer period of time before they will be 

financially able to begin repaying their student loan debt. As a result, 

according to recruiters from four of the schools, students’ parents are less 

encouraging of the career. According to officials at three collegiate 

aviation schools, due to these and other factors, more students interested 

in working in the aviation industry are pursuing other piloting careers, 

such as in unmanned aircraft systems. To illustrate, the officials said that 

in 2012, they sampled 240 new flight instructor pilots at 17 different 

collegiate aviation schools and found that while 69 percent (166 

instructors) responded that they initially aspired to be airline pilots when 

they started their pilot training education, only about 38 percent (91 

instructors) had aspirations to be airline pilots after graduating from 

training. Representatives of 5 collegiate aviation and 2 non-collegiate 

vocational pilot schools also reported financial hardships for many 

students enrolled in pilot education. Officials representing two collegiate 

schools told us that based on their discussions with students dropping out 

of professional pilot education, the lack of financial resources or

assistance is often a barrier for students.
 

Page 25 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Figure 3: Number of Graduates from U.S. Collegiate Professional-Pilot Programs by Degree Type, from Academic Years 2001 

through 2012

Note: The year shown is the end of the academic year. For example, 2001 encompasses the 2000-

2001 school year.

Although historically, the military has been a significant source of pilots for 

the airlines, according to some airline industry representatives we 

interviewed, the number of former military pilots being hired by airlines 

has been declining. According to these representatives, prior to 2001, 

some 70 percent of airline pilots hired came from the military, whereas 

currently they estimated roughly 30 percent come from the military. In 

addition, all of the airlines we interviewed reported that fewer candidates 

with military experience are applying for pilot job vacancies than has been 

their experience in the past. While specific data are not available on the 

number of pilots separating from the military who sought and gained 

Former Military Pilots Are No 

Longer a Significant Supply 

Source
 

Page 26 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

employment at airlines, according to DOD data, from fiscal years 2001 

through 2012, an average of 2,400 pilots separated from the military 

service branches per year.52

We identified and reviewed three studies that examined pilot supply 

trends and attempted to determine whether a shortage of pilots may arise 

given expected retirements, attrition, and increases in demand. Two 

analyses of pilot supply trends suggested that a prolonged shortage was 

unlikely to develop,

DOD expects roughly the same trend to 

continue into the foreseeable future, although future trends may be 

influenced by several factors, including financial incentives to influence 

pilots to stay in the military longer, civil job market opportunities, and 

changing post-war military missions. Once separated from the military, 

these pilots could choose to seek employment at an airline if FAA pilot 

certification requirements are met, such as flight hour minimums and 

other requisites, to be an airline pilot. However, we cannot determine the 

number of these pilots who may meet these qualifications, who would 

seek employment with civilian airlines after exiting from the military 

services, or who have the flight experience that airlines require.

53 although one of these specifically noted that a 

shortage of entry-level first officers may temporarily emerge, but would 

likely be addressed within a few years. This same analysis—conducted 

by the MITRE Corporation—found that, similar to our earlier discussion, a 

large pool of pilots with lower level pilot certificates exists in the United 

States who would be available to obtain the higher ATP certification if 

demand were to increase.54

 

52DOD provided data for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, and Marine Corps.

The study also noted that there is a 

significant pool of trained pilots employed outside the United States or in 

the military that could be drawn from to fill airline vacancies. However, 

avoiding a shortage would hinge on the ability to incent lower level pilots 

to seek a higher certification, and to incent pilots currently working abroad 

or elsewhere into U.S. airline jobs, should a shortage arise. Both analyses 

state or imply that airlines may need to provide financial incentives—for 

example, higher wages, benefits, or bonuses—to bring new pilots into the 

industry. While such actions would be considered typical market 

responses to a potential shortage, it does not mean such actions are 

costless or might not have implications for the industry.

53Brant Harrison from Audries Aircraft Analysis, Pilot Demand Projections/Analysis for the 

Next 10 Years Full Model, 2013; and the MITRE Corporation, Pilot Supply Outlook (2013). 

54MITRE Corporation, Pilot Supply Outlook (2013). 

Studies and Analyses of Pilot 

Supply Trends Find that the 

Extent of any Shortage 

Depends on Changes in 

Wages, Industry Growth, and 

Education Costs
 

Page 27 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

The academic study led by the University of North Dakota, which was 

discussed previously, concluded that U.S. airlines will experience a 

cumulative shortage of about 35,000 pilots over the next 20 years if no 

actions are taken by the airline industry or government.55 Using 

regression analysis, the study found that the number of new CFI 

certifications has a positive association with pilot hiring by mainline 

airlines—that is, as pilot hiring tends to increase so do new CFI 

certifications; however, it has a negative association with the cost of pilot 

school—that is, as educational costs increase, new CFI certifications tend 

to decrease. Because of the significant finding of a potential shortage, we 

reviewed the study’s methodology. We also replicated the study’s 

analysis to better understand how the study’s key assumptions affected 

its results. We found that the study’s findings of a shortage were based 

on expectations of hiring needs of mainline airlines of about 95,000 pilots 

over the next 20 years,56 and the supply of new pilots being curtailed by 

the continued acceleration in the cost of training, relative to the general 

rate of inflation. To predict future excess cost growth (the increase in the 

cost of pilot training over and above the general economy-wide level of 

inflation), the study extrapolated the growth of inflation in the cost of flight 

training over the past several years to the next 20 years. While using 

historic trends to predict future changes is part of forecasting, in some 

cases, it can lead to results that may be unlikely.57

 

55Lovelace, Higgins, et al, An Investigation of the United States Airline Pilot Labor Supply.

In this case, this 

method resulted in forecasted year-over-year changes in the cost of flight 

school of almost 8 percent above its historic mean by the year 2030, 

which is well above historic averages over the past 20 years. However, 

other changes in the market for pilot training, such as the openings of 

other pilot schools, for example, could reduce this inflation. Using a 

different assumption regarding increases in training costs would result in 

different outcomes with respect to the size of the forecasted shortage. In 

fact, guidance from the Office of Management and Budget suggests that 

assumptions regarding price increases (such as the continuation of 

current trends) should be varied to test the sensitivity of the final results to 

56As discussed earlier, this forecast is on the higher end of existing pilot employment 

projections, such as those from FAA, BLS, and aircraft manufacturers.

57This is especially true if the nature of the economic series does not necessarily imply a 

trend, such as inflation, which measures the change in price and not price itself. For 

example, over the past 50 years, U.S. inflation has been as high as 14 percent and as low 

as -0.3 percent, but does not appear to have followed any 20-year trends.
 

Page 28 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

that assumption. For example, we found that reducing the assumed rate 

of increase of inflation in the cost of flight training to only 1-2 points above 

its historic mean resulted in about 30,000 more CFI certifications—largely 

ameliorating the estimated shortage. However, the researchers stated 

that they felt that extrapolating from current trends would be the most 

responsible forecast to consider but agreed that if the costs of training do 

not continue to increase at an escalating rate, relative to inflation, as the 

study forecasted, then the estimated shortage of pilots could be mitigated.

Representatives at 11 of the 12 regional airlines told us they have been 

unable to meet hiring targets for training classes for new-hire first officers; 

most reported since early 2013. In anticipation of the August 2013 

deadline for the new pilot qualification rule, officials at many of these 

airlines indicated that 6 to 12 months before this deadline, they began 

seeking new pilots to hire who already had an ATP certificate or had 

enough flight hours that additional flying would allow them to reach the 

minimum to qualify for an ATP certificate by the time FAA finalized the 

rule. However, representatives of 5 regional airlines indicated they have 

generally been able to meet about 50 percent of their hiring targets to fill 

training classes. For example, one regional airline representative told us 

that his airline had monthly targets of hiring 12 new pilots from August 

through October 2013 but has been able to hire from 2 to 6 qualified 

applicants each month. Representatives of most of the regional airlines 

also reported that their existing banks of qualified pilot applicants have 

dwindled and that they receive fewer applicants than they have had 

historically in response to hiring announcements. Representatives of one 

regional airline estimated that where they may have previously had over 

1,000 applicants for hiring announcements, they are now seeing about 

100. For the most part, as a result of the new pilot qualification rule, many 

of the representatives attributed this reduction in the number of applicants 

to a couple of factors. First, fewer overall number of applicants are 

available who can meet ATP requirements. Second, according to several 

of the representatives, pilots completing training from pilot schools must 

now spend more time accruing required flight time—and forego some 

potential career earnings—before they can apply for entry-level firstofficer jobs at regional airlines, and fewer jobs are available in general 

aviation and non-airline commercial sectors for pilots to accrue the 

needed flight hours. Additionally, representatives of 6 regional airlines 

noted that increasing numbers of applicants were not showing up for 

scheduled interviews; some of the representatives speculated that this 

might be due to opportunities at other regional airlines or other jobs.

Regional Airlines Report 

Difficulties Filling EntryLevel Vacancies
 

Page 29 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Representatives at 10 of the 12 regional airlines we interviewed told us 

they have also observed an overall decline in the quality of flight 

experience of qualified pilots applying for pilot jobs, while some cited 

higher drop-out rates among new hire classes or observed that new hire 

candidates seem to be less prepared for the airline environment, 

compared to the historic norm. Prior to the new pilot qualification rule, 

regional airlines would often hire entry-level pilots who had recently 

graduated from pilot training with a commercial pilot certificate and an 

instrument rating, and had gained between 500 and 700 hours of flight 

time in commercial operations or in flight instruction.58

Representatives at most of the regional airlines also noted that some of 

the difficulty in finding sufficient numbers of pilots with ATP certificates, 

being experienced by some regional airlines, could be influenced by 

The pilot would 

then be hired at the regional airline, enter training with the airline, and 

accrue flight time experience towards an ATP certificate in the airline 

environment. According to representatives from most of the regional 

airlines, as a result of the new pilot qualification rule, future applicants will 

have had to accrue an additional 500 to 750 hours of flight time in flight 

instruction, where they are not always actually flying a plane, or operating 

in the general aviation (Part 91) environment wherein flight time is 

accrued in aircraft such as small, single- and multiengine, propeller 

airplanes that are not as technically advanced as aircraft operated by 

airlines. According to these representatives, in their experience, 

applicants with the greater number of flight hours earned outside the 

airline environment were less proficient and prepared than previous 

applicants who had recently completed pilot training with between 500 

and 700 hours of flight time. While this has been the recent experience of 

some regional airlines, we do not have data on where aspiring airline 

pilots are gaining their flight experience, or empirical evidence regarding 

how this has changed since the new pilot qualification rule went into 

effect. Furthermore, judgment on what type of flight experience is most 

suitable for would-be airline pilots is outside the scope of this report.

 

58Regional airlines hire first officers with varying numbers of flight hours, depending on the 

preferred minimum qualifications of the airline, its need, and the available supply of pilots 

at the point in time the hiring is occurring. Previous to the new rule, the total hours accrued 

by a new-hire first officer could be higher or lower than the range of 500 to 700 hours 

mentioned here. Data on the average number of hours of new hires across all regional 

airlines for the years prior to the new rule are not available. However, a Regional Airline 

Association’s review of its members in 2009 found an average of 1,305 flight hours for new 

hires across the responding regional airlines.
 

Page 30 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

current perceptions about the potential for career opportunities and 

progression. Key factors that influence pilots to pursue a job with an 

airline include the opportunity for upgrading to a captain, type of 

equipment flown, and work schedule. Pilots’ pay rates at airlines are 

based on seniority with a particular airline, and the rates increase each 

year and when pilots progress from first officer to captain. According to 

available data for 14 regional airlines, the average new hire hourly wage 

for all airplane types is currently about $24 per hour for the first year of 

employment.59

According to FAA, the reason that regional airline first officers are willing 

to accept a relatively low initial salary is because of the increases in 

salary that come later in the career, when they advance sequentially to 

regional airline captain, mainline airline first officer, and, finally, mainline 

airline captain.

However, representatives of most of the regional airlines 

said the hourly wages increase for the second year of employment for 

first officers—to about $30, according to the data for the 14 airlines. 

Regional airlines generally tend to have newer pilots who accumulate 

flight time in smaller aircraft and use that experience as a stepping stone 

to the higher wages offered at mainline airlines. 

60

 

59An airline pilot’s annual salary is calculated by the hourly rate times the “minimum 

guarantee” number of hours flown each month that each airline sets in its pilots’ contract. 

The minimum guarantee is generally about 75 hours per month but varies by airline. Pilots 

may fly less than the guarantee but are still paid for the minimum guarantee hours. If they 

fly more flight hours than the minimum guarantee, then they will get paid for the additional 

time flown.

The average number of years to upgrade from first 

officer to captain is 5 years for regional airlines, but representatives of 

several regional airlines said they expected upgrades to take longer. In 

addition, the new pilot qualification rule have extended the period before a 

pilot can be hired by an airline. Therefore, individuals interested in an 

airline pilot career would likely expect several more years at the lower end 

of the pay scale than had been the case in the past. Several industry 

representatives also noted, however, that the potential career earnings for 

an airline pilot continue to be significant. Some senior captains at 

mainline airlines can make $200,000 or more annually in base salary.

60According to a 2010 FAA survey of industry, in terms of the career path of a typical 

airline pilot, the average number of years for a regional airline first officer to upgrade to a 

regional airline captain is about 5 years for airlines that use regional jets and/or turboprop 

airplanes; after 2 years as regional airline captain, the pilot moves to a position as 

mainline airline first officer; and after an additional 10 years, the pilot upgrades to mainline 

airline captain.
 

Page 31 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Pilot pay rates are also based on the type of aircraft that airlines fly 

because higher pay rates are associated with flying larger, more complex 

airplanes, and, thus, opportunities to eventually upgrade to flying these 

airplanes are important in progressing in the career. Representatives of 6 

of the 12 regional airlines generally said that young, entry-level pilots 

have tended to favor the airlines that operate larger regional jet airplanes 

as opposed to those that operate turboprop-powered airplanes. 

Therefore, according to one regional airline, it could be difficult at times 

for some regional airlines to find pilots to hire as first officers willing to fly, 

for example, small turboprop airplanes when other opportunities are 

available with other airlines to immediately or eventually fly larger regional 

jets due to the career opportunities and associated higher pay rates. 

According to two small regional airlines—those that generally operate 

small turboprop airplanes—previous to the new pilot qualification rule, 

they were able to attract sufficient numbers of pilots with an expectation 

that these pilots would build flight experience over several years and 

eventually leave for other airline opportunities. However, since the rule 

went into effect, small regional airlines of this size cannot compete for the 

available pilots with ATP certificates. Due to issues in finding enough 

pilots with ATP certificates, one of these small regional airlines has 

petitioned FAA for approval that would allow it to use some of its smaller 

19-seat airplanes under a Part 135 operation—which would not be 

subject to the new first-officer qualification requirement to have an ATP 

certificate—on specific routes.61

According to the representatives of the mainline airlines we spoke with, 

they are not currently experiencing any difficulty in attracting qualified and 

desirable candidates. These representatives generally credited higher 

pay and benefits, better retirement options, and more flexible work 

schedules than what regional airlines typically offer. For instance, the 

average hourly wage for first officers at 10 mainline airlines for all airplane 

types, for which an ATP certificate is required, is currently about $48 per 

hour for the first year of employment. The mainline airline representatives 

did not anticipate any problems as they seek to increase hiring in the 

future and stated that they could draw from the pool of pilots now 

employed at regional airlines. However, representatives did express 

concerns that their regional partners may be experiencing difficulties 

 

61Operating under Part 135 rules would allow an airline to operate multiengine airplanes 

with a first officer who has a commercial pilot certificate and an instrument rating.
 

Page 32 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

finding qualified entry-level pilots. Representatives at two mainline airlines 

were concerned that as they pull pilots from the ranks of their regional 

partners, the regional partners may have trouble replacing those pilots, a 

potential chain reaction that might result in regional connecting services’ 

being curtailed. Five regional airlines we interviewed are currently limiting 

service to some smaller communities because they did not have pilots 

available to provide that service. Other industry stakeholders expressed 

similar concerns that service to small communities will continue to suffer 

going forward. 

Economic literature identifies possible actions that employers in a market 

may take to mitigate a labor shortage. Some of the actions discussed in 

economic literature are already occurring as part of airline, collegiate pilot 

school, and government efforts to attract more pilots to the airline 

industry, including increased recruiting and financial incentives. However, 

such actions have associated costs and can affect the industry in various 

ways. Federal agencies have several programs aimed at promoting 

aviation careers and providing financial assistance for education. 

However, stakeholders suggested several additional actions that 

government could take to increase the availability and flexibility of 

financial assistance available to pilot students and to create additional 

pathways to becoming an airline pilot.

According to economic literature we reviewed, employers—which are the 

first to identify a shortage when they encounter difficulty filling vacancies 

at the current wage rate—may take several actions in response to a 

perceived labor shortage.62

 

62Burt S. Barnow, John Trutko, and Jaclyn Piatak, “Conceptual Basis for Identifying and 

Measuring Occupational Labor Shortages.” In Occupational Labor Shortages: Concepts, 

Causes, Consequences, and Cures (Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for 

Employment Research, 2013) 1-34.

The actions vary in desirability for the 

employer based on resources required and their permanency. For 

example, increasing recruiting requires fewer resources than raising 

wages; further recruitment efforts could also be halted if labor market 

conditions change, whereas wages, once raised, may not be easily 

lowered. Employers may also choose to take some of these actions for

reasons other than filling vacancies—for instance, to improve morale 

among current employees or to increase profitability. Some of the actions 

Industry and 

Government Are 

Taking Some Actions 

to Attract and Train 

Future Pilots

The Aviation Industry Has 

Taken Various Steps to 

Attract, Train, and Retain 

Airline Pilots
 

Page 33 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

suggested in the literature are not feasible for airlines to take with respect 

to pilots.63

In response to difficulties filling employment vacancies, employers may:

• Increase recruiting efforts. This includes such activities as increasing 

advertising, using public or private employment agencies, and paying 

recruiting bonuses to employees who refer new hires.

• Train workers for the job. In a difficult labor market, an employer that 

traditionally relied upon colleges or vocational or trade schools to train 

its workforce may choose to offer or sponsor training.

• Improve working conditions. Equipment or facility upgrades, training, 

and job recognition efforts may all be effective means to attract and 

retain personnel.

• Reduce the minimum qualifications for the job. Employers may have 

set minimum qualifications higher than necessary and may choose to 

reduce those qualifications when hiring becomes difficult. As 

discussed, regulation sets minimum qualifications for airline pilots. 

However, most regional and mainline airlines could have hiring 

requirements in excess of or addition to the regulatory minimums that 

could be reduced, although airlines with such requirements are often 

not willing to do so because they view their requirements as important 

to the safe operation of their airline.

• Offer bonuses to new employees. Employers may offer new 

employees a “signing” bonus such as a cash payment or an 

agreement to cover the new employee’s moving expenses.

• Improve wages and fringe benefits. Increasing wages will help 

increase the number of personnel willing to work in a particular 

position or occupation. However, employers are reluctant to do this 

because they may be forced to raise the wages of current employees 

as well. Further, unlike some other actions, once wages are raised, it 

 

63Such actions mentioned in the literature include (1) increasing the use of overtime, 

which is not a feasible strategy for airlines, since regulation limits the number of duty 

hours for pilots; (2) restructuring the work to use current or new employees in other 

occupations, which is not a feasible option for airlines to consider since FAA regulates 

minimum qualifications for becoming a pilot as well as minimum requirements for 

operating aircraft; and (3) substituting machinery and equipment for labor, which would be 

analogous to increasing automation in airplanes so fewer pilots would be needed; 

however, airlines cannot arbitrarily make these determinations, as FAA regulates 

minimum pilot requirements for operating aircraft and would have to approve the use of 

any new onboard equipment. 
 

Page 34 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

is unlikely that they will be reduced later if hiring becomes less 

difficult.

• Contract out the work. If employers cannot fill vacancies for 

employees in certain occupations, they may contract out those tasks 

to another company.

• Turn down work. If an employer has exhausted other means to 

mitigate its hiring challenges and vacancies persist, it may choose to 

turn down work or curtail services.

Airlines and pilot schools have used a number of these strategies to 

attract more potential individuals to a career as an airline pilot. Economic 

literature suggests that increased recruiting is a logical first step to fill 

vacancies because it requires relatively fewer resources to implement 

than other potential options for attracting more interest in an occupation 

experiencing a shortage. Most of the airlines with whom we spoke 

reported that they have continued involvement with various recruiting 

activities, such as attending career events, including job fairs, and a 

couple of airlines reported that they had increased such activity to recruit 

more potential pilots. For example, representatives of one regional airline 

told us that after not hiring for several years and furloughing pilots, they 

have increased their recruiting efforts at some college aviation schools as 

well as Part 135 air service providers as part of their plan to begin hiring 

again. In addition, representatives from another airline said that they have 

almost doubled the size of their recruiting department to facilitate 

attendance at events and started to advertise new job openings—

something they have not previously done.

Some collegiate pilot schools have also expanded recruiting efforts to the 

next generation of potential future pilots. Officials at some of the 

collegiate pilot schools we met with had developed outreach programs 

focused on local elementary and high school students to build interest in 

aviation, which economic literature suggests could limit any future labor 

shortages.64

 

64Cohen, Labor Shortages. 

For example, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University works 

with seven high schools that provide STEM-related courses (science, 

technology, engineering, and math) intended to immerse and prepare 

high school students in these academic areas for college as well as jobs 

in the aviation industry. In another example, the Metropolitan State 

University of Denver, which has a commercial pilot program, coordinates 
 

Page 35 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

with other groups in Colorado to stimulate interest in careers in STEM 

fields from the preschool level through the graduate school level.

Airlines were also looking for ways to help new pilots to gain additional 

flight time and training to eventually qualify for an R-ATP or ATP 

certificate, and some regional and mainline airlines had begun to 

restructure “bridge agreements” with collegiate and vocational pilot 

schools.65

Since implementation of new pilot qualification rule requiring all airlines’ 

first officers to have an ATP certificate, airlines have begun to change 

their bridge programs to help potential employees gain the necessary 

flight time and training to qualify for an ATP certificate. For example, two 

regional airlines are hiring pilots without an ATP certificate who are 

currently flight instructors. As airline employees, these pilots receive 

employee benefits such as medical and dental insurance, but continue 

instructing for a collegiate or vocational pilot school program to build flight 

time toward their ATP certification. Once these employees obtain an ATP 

certificate, they are placed into new hire classes to begin the airline’s 

training program for first officers. Airlines and other stakeholders told us 

that they are also considering other options to adjust to the new pilot 

qualification rules, such as exploring new pathways to becoming an 

airline pilot and finding ways to improve pilot training, which will be 

discussed later in this report.

Prior to the new pilot qualification rule, regional airlines would 

develop these arrangements with aviation schools as a way to directly 

recruit pilot graduates with a commercial pilot certificate and instrument 

rating as first officers, in which the airlines would typically lower their 

minimum hiring standards related to flight time and experience for desired 

pilots from these schools. Some regional and mainline airlines indicated 

that they had implemented such partnerships with pilot schools to 

promote greater interest in the field and provide a pathway from pilot 

school to employment as an airline pilot. For example, ExpressJet, a 

regional airline that contracts with Delta, has partnered with 11 collegiate 

aviation schools to offer selected students guaranteed employment at 

ExpressJet as a first officer and eventually a guaranteed interview at 

Delta Airlines once the student gains enough experience.

 

65A “bridge agreement” can be a formal agreement through signed documentation or an 

informal arrangement between a regional airline and an aviation pilot school. Typical 

conditions of the agreement stipulate a specific grade point average, minimum number of 

flight hours, and other desirable academic qualifications for the students.
 

Page 36 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Regional airlines have started offering financial incentives to entice both 

graduating students and flight instructors. Offering financial incentives to 

new pilot hires is advantageous for airlines because it is a one-time cost 

and only affects the new employees hired. According to economic 

literature, signing bonuses are most frequently used when employers feel 

they are under intense pressure to fill vacancies in the short run. For 

example, two regional airlines that have had difficulty filling their new hire 

classes have started offering new-hire first officers an upfront $5,000 

signing bonus, and one of these airlines also offers up to $10,000 for 

tuition reimbursement. However, officials of the industry association that 

represents these airlines told us that these efforts have essentially 

attracted pilot applicants away from other airlines, but they have not led to 

an increase in the applicant pool overall. DOD’s Service branches have 

taken similar actions in direct response to addressing a potential shortage 

of military pilots by requiring longer service obligations and offering 

retention bonuses. For example, the U.S. Air Force recently began 

offering retention bonuses of up to $225,000 to its fighter jet pilots in 

exchange for a 9-year commitment.66

Economic literature also indicates that increasing wages is an obvious 

approach to increasing the number of workers willing to work in a 

particular occupation. However, 11 regional airlines with whom we spoke 

had not increased wages to attract better qualified applicants.

This is an increase from the Air 

Force’s previous retention offer of a 5-year contract for up to $25,000 per 

year, for a maximum of $125,000, in exchange for the commitment. 

Similarly, starting in fiscal year 2013, the U.S. Navy began offering 

retention bonuses to its pilots ranging from $25,000 to $125,000 for a 5-

year commitment and paid over the term of the contract.

67

 

66Eligible pilots have the option to take an upfront lump sum payout of half of the money, 

minus taxes, with the remainder paid over the nine years of the contract. Also, Air Force 

pilots earn about $90,000 in base pay by their 11th year in service.

An 

increase in entry level pay for pilots at regional airlines could influence 

some pilots employed elsewhere (e.g., in the military, by foreign airlines, 

or in another industry) to consider seeking employment with these 

airlines. However, any increases in pay for pilots would be subject to 

67However, one small regional airline we interviewed recently announced an agreement 

with the unions that represent their pilots to increase pilot pay, but final approval is subject 

to ratification by the airline’s pilot membership. If ratified by the pilots, the agreement will 

immediately increase pay and commuting and schedule flexibility, and allow all pilots who 

remain with the airline for a year to earn a cash retention bonus.
 

Page 37 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

negotiation of collective bargaining agreements between airlines and the 

pilot unions that represent the employed pilot workforce. As previously 

mentioned, raising wages is not a costless remedy. Since regional airlines 

generally provide service under capacity purchase agreements with 

mainline airlines on a contractual basis, regional airlines’ ability to 

increase wages would likely be limited by their ability to increase revenue 

(i.e., increasing passenger fares).

Finally, economic literature indicates that contracting out or turning down 

work are options to cope with a labor shortage. Mainline airlines normally 

contract with regional airlines to expand available service. As previously 

mentioned, representatives of five regional airlines we interviewed told us 

that there have been some instances wherein the contracted capacity 

(i.e., scheduled flights) for mainline airline partners has had to be turned 

down by reducing and canceling flights due to a lack of pilot crew 

availability. According to an official of a small regional airline, for the first 

time in its history, the airline had to reduce about 20 percent of its 

scheduled flights in August 2013 because it could not staff all of its 

airplanes to provide the scheduled flights. Again, such actions are not 

costless and pose implications for the industry. A continued shortage of 

pilots for these airlines could mean additional curtailment of services, and 

thus far, it is smaller communities that are experiencing reduced service, 

and over a longer term may result in a contraction of the industry.

While no one agency is tasked with developing the pilot workforce, 

several maintain programs that help promote and train people for 

aviation-related careers. At the time of its creation in 1958, the FAA was 

tasked with regulating, promoting, encouraging, and developing civil 

aeronautics.68

 

68Pub. L. No. 85-726, § 103(a) and (b), 305, 72 Stat. 731, 740 and 749 (1958).

In 1996, following criticism of its response to the ValuJet 

crash in the Florida Everglades and to address concerns about its dual 

role, FAA’s mission was amended to make ensuring the safety of the 

Federal Agencies Have a 

Limited Role in Helping to 

Attract People to AviationRelated Careers
 

Page 38 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

national air space system as the agency’s top priority.69 According to 

FAA, it has continued to promote careers in aviation, but specific 

references were deleted from its mandate. Nonetheless, FAA has several 

initiatives aimed at promoting the aviation industry and encouraging 

young people to pursue careers in aviation. For example, FAA developed 

the Aviation Career Education Academies, interactive aviation summer 

camps geared toward middle- and high-school students interested in 

aviation and aerospace; the agency also promotes DOT’s National 

Transportation Summer Institute to introduce secondary school students 

to all modes of transportation careers and encourage them to pursue 

transportation-related courses of study at the postsecondary education 

level.70

Other federal agencies provide financial assistance that is available for 

students that pursue aviation careers, including pilot training.

FAA also works with education and industry partners to offer 

initiatives such as adopt-a-school programs and other activities that 

expose students and others to aviation and aerospace. FAA works with 

industry, including the Experimental Aircraft Association, to facilitate the 

Young Eagle Program, which seeks to expose young people to aviation 

and give them an opportunity to fly in a general aviation airplane. In 

addition, FAA’s Aviation and Space Education website is intended to 

appeal to an audience unfamiliar with aviation, such as students and 

teachers.

• DOD provides Military Tuition Assistance benefits to service members 

to help them enhance their professional development. The benefits 

can be used for pilot training or to pay for certification tests, such as 

an ATP certification.

 

69On May 11, 1996, a ValuJet DC-9 crashed into the Florida Everglades shortly after takeoff from Miami International Airport, killing all 110 people aboard. Earlier that year, FAA 

had initiated a special review of the rapidly-growing low-cost carrier following a series of 

incidents and non-fatal accidents. In June 1996, FAA announced that the carrier would 

cease operations pending safety improvements to address serious deficiencies it had 

found in ValuJet’s airworthiness, maintenance, quality oversight, and engineering 

capabilities. This sparked renewed criticism of DOT and FAA because it appeared to 

contrast with statements, made following the accident, assuring the public that the airline 

was safe. The next day, Secretary of Transportation committed to urge Congress to make 

safety FAA’s single primary mission. The change was codified in the Federal Aviation 

Reauthorization Act of 1996, Pub. L. No. 104-264, § 401, 110 Stat. 3213, 3255 (1996).

70FAA collaborated with the Federal Highway Administration to combine the two youth 

summer programs to increase education outreach from pre-kindergarten to institutions of 

higher education.
 

Page 39 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

• Education offers various federal aid benefits, such as low-interest 

student and parent loans, grants, and work-study funds to help cover 

educational expenses.71

• VA administers education benefit programs, such as the Montgomery 

G.I. Bill, that can be used to pay for flight training for veterans who are 

interested in attending aviation programs approved by FAA, such as 

collegiate aviation schools and some vocational pilot schools.

Collegiate aviation schools and some 

vocational pilot schools are generally eligible to receive federal 

financial aid.

72 The 

payment amount varies depending on the program and the type of 

pilot school. In addition, a 2011 law amended the Montgomery G.I. Bill 

program to provide financial assistance to veterans specifically for 

flight-training programs.73

• DOL administers programs under the Workforce Investment Act of 

1998 (WIA) in which training services are available to eligible 

individuals who meet requirements for services—including training to 

become an airline pilot.74 However, according to DOL, due to limited 

available resources, workforce counselors encourage individuals 

eligible for WIA training funds to also pursue educational funding from 

other sources (including VA and Education). Nevertheless, according 

to DOL data from 2010 through 2012, 124 individuals received WIA 

funding for pilot training.75

 

71The Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid manages and administers 

student financial-assistance programs authorized under Title IV of the Higher Education 

Act of 1965, as amended, (codified at 20 U.S.C. §§ 1070 – 1099d and 42 U.S.C. §§ 2571 

– 2756b), which include student loans, grants, and campus-based work study aid.

In addition, apprenticeships are available 

72VA benefits can only be used for flight training provided by FAA-approved Part 141 pilot 

schools, but not by flight-training providers that operate under Part 61— often provided by 

an individual, for-hire flight instructor who can operate independently as a single-instructor 

school at a local airport. Also, VA benefits can be used for flight training if the veteran 

holds a private pilot certificate upon beginning the training and meets the medical 

requirements.

73The Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Improvements Act of 2010 authorizes 

payment of the actual net costs for in-state tuition and fees assessed by the school or 

$10,000, whichever is less, per academic year. Pub. L. No. 111-377, § 105(b), 124 Stat. 

4106, 4113 (2011).

74Pub. L. No. 105-220, 112 Stat. 936 (1998).

75The number of individuals who received WIA funding for pilot training represent a small 

percentage of the total number of WIA funding recipients.
 

Page 40 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

for pilot occupations,76

• The Internal Revenue Code also provides tax credits—such as the 

American Opportunity Credit and Lifetime Learning Credit—and 

various deductions that may be taken to reduce the federal income 

tax burden for students or those paying the costs of students’ post 

secondary education.

but there were no active apprentices as of 

November 2013.

77

Airline and pilot school stakeholders we interviewed suggested several 

actions that could be pursued by government to respond to potential 

shortages of airline pilots. These actions generally fell into two categories: 

(1) increasing the availability and flexibility of financial assistance 

available to aviation students and (2) creating additional pathways to 

becoming an airline pilot.

Several airline and pilot school officials we interviewed stated that the 

high cost of pilot training is deterring students from entering pilot school 

and pursuing an airline pilot career. To pay for pilot training, students 

typically use a mix of personal funds, personal credit (credit cards and 

personal loans), scholarships, grants, other private educational loans, and 

federal financial-assistance programs. However, flight school officials said 

that students enrolled in collegiate aviation schools and vocational pilot 

schools are finding it more difficult to qualify for financial aid because 

many private banks have been tightening restrictions on financing 

available to potential new-pilot students, and others have left the pilot 

training loan market. We previously found that in 2009, many lenders 

offering student loans had exited the market due to limited access to 

 

76Under the apprenticeship program, individuals earn a salary while receiving work-based 

training.

77Tax credits directly reduce the amount of income tax owed, while deductions reduce the 

amount of taxable income upon which income taxes are computed. The American 

Opportunity Credit applies to the first 4 years of post-secondary education up to $2,500 of 

the cost of qualified tuition and related expenses paid during the taxable year. The

Lifetime Learning Credit has no limit on the number of years the credit can be claimed for 

each student and applies up to $2,000 for all levels of post-secondary education 

coursework. American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act, Pub. L. No. 111-5, §1004, 

123 Stat. 306, 314.

Stakeholders Suggested 

Various Actions 

Government Could Take to 

Mitigate a Potential 

Shortage of Airline Pilots

Increase Availability and 

Flexibility of Financial 

Assistance to Aviation 

Students
 

Page 41 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

capital in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

78 Since that time, 

according to officials of some pilot schools we interviewed, stricter lending 

standards continue to make it difficult for some students and parents to 

qualify for private loans.79

Aviation stakeholders we interviewed in previous work agreed that one of 

most important challenges for maintaining an adequate supply of students 

for pilot schools is the availability of financial support.

In addition, unlike colleges and universities, 

many vocational pilot schools are not approved or accredited to offer 

federal financial-aid programs. Some of these schools offer financing 

options for those students who qualify by working with lenders including 

banks, credit unions, and private lending institutions. A number of 

stakeholders suggested that making it easier for all pilot schools to 

participate in federal student-loan programs could make it easier for 

schools to train more pilots because many students drop out due to 

financial difficulties.

80

 

78GAO, Initial Pilot Training: Better Management Controls Are Needed to Improve FAA 

Oversight, 

Several airline 

and pilot school officials said the federal government could consider 

revising the existing student loan requirements for students in pilot 

schools seeking to become airline pilots—such as extending the loan 

repayment period, deferring the start of repaying the loan, and increasing 

the maximum loan amount—or establishing a student-loan repayment or 

forgiveness program for airline pilots. Loan forgiveness programs may 

include criteria for a specified length of employment and a required period 

of timely payments, upon which all or a portion of the remaining loan 

balance would be eliminated. Some stakeholders suggested that revising 

GAO-12-117, (Washington, D.C.: November 2011) and GAO, Higher 

Education: Factors Lenders Consider in Making Lending Decisions for Private Education 

Loans, GAO-10-86R (Washington, D.C.: November 2009).

79Traditionally, most student loans were available through two programs: the William D. 

Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (Direct Loan), in which the federal government 

provides loans directly to students through their schools, and the Federal Family 

Education Loan Program (FFEL), in which private lenders provide loans guaranteed by 

the federal government. However, the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act, enacted 

as part of the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, terminated the 

authority to make or insure new FFEL loans after June 30, 2010, so that most federal 

loans are now originated under the Direct Loan Program. Pub. L. No. 111-152, § 2201, 

124 Stat. 1029, 1074 (2010). While private lenders no longer provide federally guaranteed 

student loans, they may continue to provide private loans which are not federally 

subsidized. As a result, lenders may use other criteria to determine borrower eligibility and 

loan interest rates.

80GAO-12-117. 
 

Page 42 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

loan requirements could provide incentives to attract individuals to the 

pilot profession. 

We have also previously found that European airlines have at times 

funded the training of pilot candidates in response to pilot shortages.81

Some stakeholders suggested that FAA should consider supplementing 

the current regulatory framework for training new pilots with additional 

pathways to achieving an ATP certificate. Stakeholders have made these 

suggestions because the new pilot qualification rule changed the 

traditional pathway to becoming an airline pilot, and airlines initial 

experience under the new rule suggests that the flight hours new pilots 

are earning to qualify for an ATP certificate may not be directly relevant to 

an airline setting. Based on an exemption request to FAA from one of the 

member airlines, the Regional Air Cargo Carriers Association (RACCA) 

has supported a regulatory change that would allow first officers in Part 

135 cargo-only operations to log certain flight hours that they are currently 

In 

the European countries that we visited for our previous work, many 

student pilots, following a screening process, were provided training by 

airline sponsorship with an agreement for future employment with the 

airline. An example of an airline that follows this practice is Lufthansa, 

where students are offered the training as part of a partial sponsorship 

program, wherein candidates are required to pay a small portion of the 

training costs upfront while Lufthansa provides a student loan to students 

to cover this cost. Once training is completed, Lufthansa enters into an 

employment contract with the candidate, and he or she repays the loan 

by accepting a lower initial salary. Other European airlines have begun to 

assist their students by forming agreements with banks to reduce the risk 

of providing student loans to flight school students. British Airways helps 

students secure the funding required for training through a guaranteed 

bank loan in the hopes that this will increase the pool of qualified 

applicants. KLM partially funds an insurance policy to help banks cover 

their student loan default risks for students who end their pilot training 

early due to poor performance, failed medical examinations, or other 

unforeseen circumstances. If the insurance policy is executed, students 

are contractually obligated to cease their pursuit of an airline pilot career. 

None of the U.S. airlines we interviewed were currently considering such 

approaches.

 

81GAO-12-117. 

Create Additional Pathways to 

Becoming an Airline Pilot
 

Page 43 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

prohibited from logging, except under limited circumstances. According to 

RACCA officials, these first officers are frequently recent graduates of 

flight-training programs with commercial pilot certificates, and allowing the 

hours flown in these operations to count would give these pilots flight 

experience toward the qualifications for an ATP certificate that is more 

commensurate with flying for a passenger airline, since they are flying 

similar planes under similar conditions—unlike the flight hours logged in 

flight instruction using training airplanes, or through banner towing and 

similar types of flight experiences.82

A proposal being developed by a consortium of industry stakeholders 

would request that FAA consider new regulations allowing the airline 

industry to take greater advantage of the advancements in computerbased and simulation technology for training pilots. According to the 

group, U.S. pilot training requirements for certification of airline pilots 

have not been significantly changed for decades and pilots have had to 

complete the same certification path based on the same training 

standards and requirements. While the standards for obtaining pilot 

certificates have changed little over the years, training technology has 

advanced through the use of simulation and computers. The group 

suggested that FAA should allow more credit for training using this type of 

technology in lieu of actual flying. The group argues that training aids 

provided by computer software, computer-based simulation, and flight 

simulation training can help students to achieve as good or better 

competency in various training components, such as aircraft 

performance, navigation, and aircraft systems operations. In fact, many of 

the collegiate aviation schools already provide specialized training in 

flight-simulation training devices, but FAA allows only a few of these 

training hours to be credited toward private and commercial pilot 

certificates. According to industry consortium, the ability to expand the 

use of these technologies would enable pilot schools to train the next 

According to FAA officials, FAA is in 

the process of developing a proposed rulemaking that could expand the 

logging of flight time for certain Part 135 operations.

 

82RACCA also supports another member airline’s petition to FAA for an exemption to 

reduce the requirement of 1,200 hours of total time to 800 hours for captains in Part 135 

cargo-only operations under Instrument Flight Rules, which, if allowed, would only be 

applicable to all cargo flying in less advanced, non-type-rated airplanes (i.e., below 12,500 

lb. maximum takeoff weight and not turbojet-powered). A RACCA official stated this would 

provide another option to increase experience and qualification in larger airplanes and 

help the pilot supply pipeline for the U.S. airline industry.
 

Page 44 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

generation of pilots more efficiently and improve the overall competency 

of entry-level first officers. 

Many Asian and European countries have already adopted a similar 

approach in the form of the multi-crew pilot license (MPL)—an alternative 

pilot training and certification concept specifically geared toward training 

airline pilots.83 The training methods for the MPL are focused on 

enhancing the quality of training geared toward first officer duties. Such 

competency-based training for pilots is not new and focuses on the 

training outcome in terms of how well students perform rather than simply 

meeting specified numbers of training hours.84 Thus, training hours are 

replaced by sets of defined, measureable performance criteria. The MPL 

training model focuses on the core competencies that pilots need to be 

able to operate modern jet airplanes during all phases of flight. Many of 

the airline officials we interviewed suggested that this model for pilot 

training could serve as an additional career pathway for becoming a U.S. 

airline pilot.

Availability of a sufficient number of qualified pilots is vital to the U.S. 

airline industry and necessary to support air transportation services for 

passengers and cargo traveling within the United States or to and from 

this country. Evidence suggests that the supply pipeline is changing as 

fewer students enter and complete collegiate pilot-training programs and 

fewer military pilots are available than in the past. Additional pressure on 

pilot availability will come from (1) the projected number of mandatory 

age-related pilot retirements at mainline airlines over the next decade and 

beyond, (2) the increasing demand for regional airlines to address attrition 

needs, and (3) the reported lower number of potentially qualified pilots in 

the applicant pool for filling regional airlines’ first-officer jobs. If the 

predictions for future demand are realized and shortages continue to 

 

83In November 2006, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) enabled the 

implementation for the multi-crew pilot license by amending personnel licensing standards 

to include a new pilot certificate and adopting new standards for this ab initio airline pilot 

training method. ICAO is the international body that, among other things, promulgates 

international standards and recommended practices in an effort to harmonize global 

aviation standards.

84The international standards for an approved MPL training program specify a minimum of 

240 hours of actual and simulated training, but do not specify a descriptive breakdown of 

hours for the program.

Concluding 

Observations
 

Page 45 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

develop, airlines may have to make considerable operational adjustments 

to compensate for having an insufficient number of pilots.

To address such a situation, opportunities exist for the airline industry to 

take action to attract more pilots. For example, airlines can continue to 

take actions that will promote aviation as an occupation—such as through 

employment pathway partnerships with pilot schools and additional career 

and financial support for pilots as they build flight hours for an R-ATP or 

ATP certificate. In addition, mainline and regional airlines could work 

together to shift some of the burden of increasing training costs from 

students as has been done by some European airlines and adjust 

contractual agreements between mainline and regional airline partners to 

help regional airlines increase revenue. Furthermore, with the mandate to 

increase pilot qualifications for airline pilots having only recently gone into 

effect, opportunities exist to develop new training methods and pathways 

for students to gain experience relevant to an airline environment. It is 

unclear at this point what adjustments could occur within the pilot training 

system that would help to respond to these stakeholders’ concerns about 

the current regulations, or if government action may be necessary to 

enable certain changes. Therefore, we encourage FAA to continue its 

efforts in working with the airline and pilot training industries in 

considering additional ways for pilots to build quality flight time that 

contributes directly to working in airline operations. In the absence of 

efforts discussed in the report to incentivize and attract more people to 

the career, several airlines and industry stakeholders expressed some 

concern that service to some small communities may suffer going 

forward. Given the opportunities available for the industry to address a 

possible shortage of pilots, as discussed, as well as actions FAA is 

considering, we are not making recommendations in this report. In the 

event that Congress decides that actions in the market are not sufficient 

and it is necessary for government to intervene, this report offers several 

options for doing so.

We provided a draft of this report to the departments of Defense, Labor, 

and Transportation for review and comment. DOD had no comments on 

the report. DOL and DOT provided technical comments that we 

incorporated as appropriate. In addition, to verify information, we sent 

relevant sections of the draft report to Airlines for America, the Regional 

Airlines Association, Malcolm Cohen, Ph.D., and various stakeholders, 

which also provided technical comments that we incorporated as 

appropriate.

Agency and ThirdParty Comments
 

Page 46 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

We will send copies of this report to interested congressional committees 

and members; the Secretary of Defense; the Secretary of Labor; the 

Secretary of Transportation; the Director, Office of Management and

Budget; and others. This report will be available at no charge on the GAO 

website at http://www.gao.gov. 

If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact 

me at (202) 512-2834 or at dillinghamg@gao.gov. Contact points for our 

Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on 

the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major contributions to 

this report are listed in appendix II.

Gerald L. Dillingham, Ph.D.

Director

Physical Infrastructure Issues
 

Page 47 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

List of Requesters

The Honorable John Thune

Ranking Member

Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

United States Senate

The Honorable Bill Shuster

Chairman

Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure

House of Representatives

The Honorable Frank A. LoBiondo

Chairman

Subcommittee on Aviation

Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure

The Honorable Johnny Isakson

United States Senate

The Honorable John Mica

House of Representatives

The Honorable Thomas Petri

House of Representatives
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 48 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Our report focuses on the supply of and demand for airline pilots and 

potential market and government responses. In this report, we described 

(1) what the available data and forecasts reveal about the need for and 

potential availability of airline pilots and (2) the types of industry and 

government actions that are being taken, or might be taken, to attract and 

retain airline pilots.

To address the two objectives, we reviewed and synthesized a range of 

published reports from GAO, the Department of Transportation (DOT), 

and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that included general 

background information on a variety of related issues, such as the pilot 

certification process; pilot training schools; typical career paths to become 

an airline pilot; piloting experience and airline pilot compensation; federalfunding programs for pilot training; and the historical and current health of 

the airline industry. We also reviewed relevant literature related to factors 

that affect the supply of and demand for airline pilots, including attrition 

and retention concerns, factors to consider in the future, and international 

pilot supply and demand issues based on search results from databases, 

such as ProQuest®, TRID, and Nexis®, as well as trade publications, 

industry stakeholder groups, and the Internet. Furthermore, we reviewed 

the federal aviation regulations related to training and certification for 

pilots under Parts 61 and 141, Title 14, Code of Federal Regulations 

(CFR); as well as oversight of air travel operations in accordance with 

Parts 91, 121, and 135, Title 14, CFR. We also reviewed provisions of the 

Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010 

(Pub. L. No. 111-216) related to “Flight Crewmember Screening and 

Qualifications” and “Airline Transport Pilot Certification.” We reviewed 

FAA’s regulatory final rules required by the Act related to addressing pilot 

fatigue (issued in January 2012);1 increasing qualification requirements 

for first officers who fly U.S. passenger and cargo planes (issued in July 

2013);2 and enhancing pilot training requirements for airline pilots (issued 

in November 2013).3

To determine what the available data and forecasts reveal about the need 

for and potential availability of airline pilots, we reviewed relevant 

 

1

77 Fed. Reg. 330 (Jan. 4, 2012).

2

78 Fed. Reg. 42324 (July 15, 2013).

3

78 Fed. Reg. 67800 (Nov. 12, 2013).

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 49 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

economic literature that describe labor market conditions4; developed a 

summary of the general economic principles for evaluating labor market 

conditions; and identified relevant data sources. Economic literature 

states that no single definition exists to define a labor shortage; however, 

one can look at multiple indicators—including unemployment rates, 

employment numbers, and earnings—which might converge to suggest 

either the presence or absence of a shortage.5 We obtained these data 

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Population Survey 

(CPS) for years 2000 through 2012.6 In 2010, the Standard Occupational 

Classification (SOC) system’s occupation titles were updated and, as a 

result, some occupations’ names were changed. We used SAS, a 

statistical software application, to connect the BLS CPS data for 2000-

2010 and 2011-2012 by the SOC for aircraft pilots; this did not affect our 

occupation of interest.7 We analyzed how these indicators have changed 

over time, and whether these indicators suggest a labor shortage—that is 

whether there appears to be an imbalance between the labor supply (i.e., 

available people) and demand (i.e., available jobs). We analyzed each 

occupation relative to all other occupations and using a scale with 

benchmarks developed in previous economic analysis.8

 

4

Barnow, Trutko, and Piatak, Conceptual Basis for Identifying and Measuring 

Occupational Labor Shortages, and Cohen, Labor Shortages. 

For the 

5

In the absence of a universally agreed upon definition, we have defined a labor shortage 

in the same terms that have been used in economic literature, including a BLS publication.

6

The Current Population Survey, a monthly household survey conducted by the Bureau of 

the Census for the BLS, provides a comprehensive body of information on the 

employment and unemployment experience of the nation’s population, classified by age, 

sex, race, and a variety of other characteristics.

7

Occupation titles were updated in 2010 and some occupations were combined and 

others were phased out. While this did not affect our occupations, it affected the total 

number of occupations. We excluded those occupation for which the name changed. We 

also excluded occupations that had any years where the sample size was too small (i.e., 

under 50,000 observations) to report unemployment, median weekly earnings, or 

employment. This affected unemployment and weekly earnings more than employment. 

As a result, we dropped 288, 490, and 250 occupations from the unemployment rate, 

employment, and earnings, respectively.

8

Cohen developed a scale with seven categories to more easily synthesize results from 

the indictors. Each occupation’s indicators were assigned a numerical value from 1 to 7. 

Categories were developed by looking at the distribution of the results and setting natural 

groupings (e.g., distinguishing between positive and negative employment growth). A rank 

of “7” designates the indicator is consistent with a labor shortage and a “1” designates the 

indicator is consistent with a labor surplus. 
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 50 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

unemployment rate we looked at the average unemployment rate for 

each occupation for 2000 through 2012.9 For both employment and 

earnings we analyzed any change.10 Due to the limitation that airline 

pilots and commercial pilots are combined into a single occupational 

category in the CPS data,11 we also obtained data from the BLS 

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey for employment and 

wage earnings and analyzed any change from 2000 through 2012.12 To 

verify our results, we consulted with Malcolm Cohen, Ph.D., labor 

economist and author of the original methodology for conducting indicator 

analysis.13

To identify future demand for, supply of, or employment, we analyzed 

projections for airline pilots in the United States. To identify relevant 

studies, we performed a literature review of scholarly material, 

government reports, and books, among others, to identify any 

employment projections for airline pilots and limited our results to those 

projecting employment in the United States (or North America) using 

We incorporated his comments as appropriate. Finally, we 

summarized limitations with the data with respect to how we used it. We 

determined the data were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of our 

indicator analysis to provide context on the labor market.

 

9

As part of a sensitivity analysis we also compared data since 2003, in addition to 

developing a regression line for both time periods. Performing multiple analyses with 

different comparison years allowed us to ensure that a year with unique results would not 

impact our analysis. 

10Similar to the unemployment rate we also looked at data since 2003 as well. Finally, we 

adjusted earnings for inflation and only included full-time non-farm workers.

11BLS defines airline pilots as those who work for airline companies that transport 

passengers and cargo according to fixed schedules, and commercial pilots are those 

involved in other flight activities, such as crop dusting, charter flights, and aerial 

photography. BLS’s Current Population Survey data for unemployment, wage earnings, 

and employment combined both occupational categories.

12The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program produces employment and 

wage estimates annually for over 800 occupations for the nation as a whole, individual 

States, metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and national occupational estimates for 

specific industries. BLS subdivides its employment and earnings data for airline pilots and 

commercial pilots.

13Dr. Malcolm S. Cohen, President of Employment Research Corporation, received his 

Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1967. Dr. Cohen 

has directed numerous labor market research and forecasting studies for the U.S. 

Department of Labor. Dr. Cohen testifies as an expert witness in various court 

proceedings on economic loss, discrimination, and other employment issues.
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 51 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

databases that included ProQuest®, TRID, and Nexis®. We identified 

three demand-based forecasts—two conducted by government (FAA 

Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033 and BLS Employment 

Projections 2012-2022), and one conducted by industry (Boeing Current 

Market Outlook 2013-2032)—and obtained each for analysis. To 

understand these projections, we reviewed the processes, 

methodologies, and sources of information used to make the projections. 

We also discussed the projections with knowledgeable staff involved with 

each study. We did not verify the data that the companies collected and 

used. Rather, we summarized the methodology and results for each and 

discussed any limitations we identified with respect to how the forecast 

was developed. We also described, based on economic literature, why 

forecasting generally includes a great deal of uncertainty.

We also identified and reviewed three relevant industry and academic 

studies that focused on the supply of and demand for airline pilots. The 

reviewed studies included (1) Lovelace, Higgins, et al, An Investigation of 

the United States Airline Pilot Labor Supply, 2013; (2) Brant Harrison from 

Audries Aircraft Analysis, Pilot Demand Projections/Analysis for the Next 

10 Years Full Model, 2013; and (3) the MITRE Corporation, Pilot Supply 

Outlook, 2013. To evaluate these studies, we reviewed their methods, 

assumptions, and limitations. Each study was reviewed by one GAO 

economist, whose review was then verified by a second GAO economist. 

In our review of An Investigation of the United States Airline Pilot Labor 

Supply, we replicated the study’s analysis using data provided by the lead 

researchers, which raised questions about a specific assumption made 

about future increases in the cost of pilot training. To determine the extent 

to which the conclusions of the study were based on this specific 

assumption, we varied the assumption to determine the extent to which 

that would lead to a different conclusion. We discussed our analysis in 

detail with the lead researchers, and in general, they acknowledged that 

our findings were valid, but provided reasons to explain why the original 

assumption used in the study was warranted.

To identify trends in supply sources for qualified airline pilots, we obtained 

data from 2000 through 2012 from civilian and military sources for pilots. 

We analyzed data from the Department of Education (Education) on 

annual completions by major in professional pilot programs; data from the 

Department of Defense (DOD) on expectations for the number of new 

pilots entering military service and separating from the military; and FAA’s 

data on the number of individuals holding and obtaining pilot certificates 

and instrument ratings by year, specifically:
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 52 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

• Education: To describe national trends in completions in professional 

pilot degree programs, we analyzed data from Education’s Integrated 

Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). We used 

Education’s Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) and 

matched degree programs to our SOC codes to identify the relevant 

degree programs. Specifically, the CIP-SOC relationship indicates 

that programs classified in the CIP category prepare individuals 

directly for jobs classified in the SOC category. The categories of 

schools included in our analysis were degree granting: 4-year 

research, 4-year master, 4-year baccalaureate, 2-year associate, and 

vocational schools. Unless otherwise noted, data estimates for 

graduation rates are within a confidence interval of 5 percentage 

points.

• DOD: To better understand the role of the U.S. military as a source of 

potential airline pilots, we obtained data on military pilots separating 

from the Service branches (i.e., the Air Force, Army, Marine Corps, 

and Navy); the current number of pilots in each Service; and 

forecasted rates of separation for pilots. We interviewed military 

officials at the Pentagon to understand how separation trends in the 

future will compare to past trends.

• FAA: To better understand trends in the number of pilot certificates 

and instrument ratings held and new certificates issued, and age 

distribution of current airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate holders, 

we obtained data from FAA on pilot certificates and instrument ratings 

held and issued from 2000 through 2012. We also obtained data from 

FAA on the estimated number of active ATP certificates held by age 

group during this period in order to exclude the number of certificates 

held by pilots age 65 and older because they would not be allowed to 

work as airline pilots due to mandatory age retirement. The database 

in which certificate-holder information is stored maintains records on 

individuals until FAA is informed of their death.

To assess the reliability of Education, DOD, and FAA data, we reviewed 

documentation related to all data sources from prior GAO reports, the 

agencies’ websites, and interviewed knowledgeable government officials 

about the quality of the data. We determined that the data were 

sufficiently reliable to describe general sources of supply of airline pilots 

and to support broad conclusions about trends in these sources over 

recent years.
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 53 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

To develop our list of actions that employers may take to mitigate labor 

shortages, we reviewed economic literature and interviewed the 

authors.14 We also interviewed selected industry associations that 

represent airlines, the unions that represent pilots, and government 

officials to get a broader sense of the extent to which employers are 

taking actions to mitigate labor shortages. To supplement these broader 

trends, we also reviewed data from and interviewed representatives from 

passenger and cargo airlines, and selected collegiate aviation and noncollegiate vocational pilot schools. We contacted and gathered 

information from 10 mainline passenger and cargo airlines, and 12 

regional passenger airlines.15 We selected the mainline and regional 

airlines based on size in terms of passengers transported in 2012 and 

stakeholders’ recommendations. While these 12 regional airlines are 

responsible for transporting about 71 percent of regional passengers in 

2012, their views and experiences should not be used to make 

generalizations about all regional airlines. We also interviewed 

representatives of 10 collegiate aviation and 2 non-collegiate vocational 

pilot schools, which accounted for about half of the students who 

graduated with professional pilot majors in 2012. We selected these 

schools based on geographical diversity, average number of student 

enrollments in pilot training programs, stakeholders’ recommendations, 

and our previous work related to pilot training. While these schools were 

among the largest schools in terms of student pilot enrollments, our 

findings should not be used to make generalizations about the views or 

experiences of all of the pilot training schools in the United States. We 

also met with and reviewed documents from various industry 

stakeholders, including pilot labor unions, airline associations, and 

industry organizations, among others (see table 2).

 

14Barnow, Trutko, and Piatak, Conceptual Basis for Identifying and Measuring 

Occupational Labor Shortages. 

15Mainline airlines provide domestic and international passenger and cargo service on 

larger aircraft. Regional airlines provide domestic and limited international passenger 

service, generally using aircraft with fewer than 90 seats, and cargo service to smaller 

airports.
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 54 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Table 2: Agencies, Organizations, and Airlines Contacted or Interviewed 

U.S. federal agencies

Department of Education

Department of Defense

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration

Industry associations

Air Line Pilots Association

Airlines 4 America

Coalition of Airline Pilots Association

Independent Pilots Association

International Air Transport Association

National Business Aviation Association

Regional Airline Association 

Regional Air Cargo Carriers Association

University Aviation Association

Industry organizations

Airline Apps, Inc.

Aviation Workforce Development

Boeing

CareerBuilder

Families of Continental Flight 3407

International Civil Aviation Organization

Venture Management, Inc

Collegiate aviation pilot schools

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, Arizona

Kansas State University at Salina

Metropolitan State University

Middle Tennessee State University

Purdue University

Southern Illinois University

Tarrant County College

University of North Dakota

Western Michigan University

Non-collegiate vocational pilot schools

Aerosim Flight Academy
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 55 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

FlightSafety Academy

Mainline airlines

Alaska Airlines

American Airlines

Atlas Air

Delta Airlines

Hawaiian Airlines

JetBlue Airways

Southwest Airlines

United Airlines

United Parcel Service

US Airways

Regional airlines

American Eagle Airlines

ExpressJet

Great Lakes Airlines

Mesa Air

Republic Airways Holdings (Chautauqua Airlines, Republic Airlines, Shuttle America)

Silver Airways

SkyWest Airlines

Trans States Holdings, Inc. (Trans States Airlines, Compass Airlines, GoJet Airlines)

Source: GAO.

We conducted this performance audit from March 2013 through February 

2014 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing 

standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to 

obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for 

our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe 

that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings 

and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
Appendix II: GAO Contacts and Staff 

Acknowledgments

Page 56 GAO-14-232 Aviation Workforce

Gerald L. Dillingham, PhD, (202) 512-2834 or Dillinghamg@gao.gov

In addition to the contact named above, the following individuals made 

important contributions to this report: Andrew Von Ah, Assistant Director; 

Amy Abramowitz; Benjamin Bolitzer; Russell Burnett; Vashun Cole; Dave 

Hooper; Bonnie Pignatiello Leer; John Mingus; Susan Offutt; Joshua 

Ormond; and Amy Rosewarne.

Appendix II: GAO Contacts and Staff 

Acknowledgments

GAO Contact

Staff 

Acknowledgments

(540261)
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