Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION
William H. Pryor, Jr. 

Acting Chair

Rachel E. Barkow

Commissioner

J. Patricia Wilson Smoot

Ex Officio

Jonathan J. Wroblewski

Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen 

Staff Director

Glenn R. Schmitt

Director

Office of Research and Data

United States Sentencing Commission

One Columbus Circle, N.E.

Washington, DC 20002

www.ussc.gov
Louis Reedt, Sc.D., Deputy Director, Office of Research and Data 

Kim Steven Hunt, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate

James L. Parker, J.D., Assistant General Counsel

Melissa K. Reimer, Research Associate

Kevin T. Maass, M.A., Research Associate
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter Summary.....1

Introduction.....2

Key Findings.....3

Measures of Recidivism & 

Methodology.....4

Chapter Summary.....7

Sentencing Process.....8

Offender & Offense 

Characteristics.....9

Recidivism Findings.....12

Appendix.....A-5, A-41

Chapter One

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chapter Two

ALL DRUG 

TRAFFICKERS

Chapter Three

POWDER COCAINE 

TRAFFICKERS

Chapter Four

CRACK COCAINE 

TRAFFICKERS

Chapter Summary.....23

Offender & Offense 

Characteristics.....24

Recidivism Findings.....27

Appendix.....A-11, A-41

Chapter Summary.....37 

Offender & Offense 

Characteristics.....38

Recidivism Findings.....41

Appendix.....A-17, A-41

i Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Appendix.....A-3
Chapter Five

HEROIN 

TRAFFICKERS

Chapter Six

MARIJUANA 

TRAFFICKERS

Chapter Seven

METHAMPHETAMINE 

TRAFFICKERS

Chapter Eight

CONCLUSIONS

Chapter Summary.....51

Offender & Offense 

Characteristics.....52

Recidivism Findings.....55

Appendix.....A-23, A-42

Chapter Summary.....65

Offender & Offense 

Characteristics.....66

Recidivism Findings.....69

Appendix.....A-29, A-42

Chapter Summary.....79

Offender & Offense 

Characteristics.....80

Recidivism Findings.....83

Appendix.....A-35, A-42

Conclusions.....94

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders ii

Chapter One: 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report examines a group of 10,888 federal drug trafficking offenders who were released in calendar 

year 2005. They were originally sentenced between fiscal year 1991 and the first quarter of fiscal year 

2006.

These 10,888 offenders, who were all U.S. citizens, represent 42.8 percent of the 25,431 federal offenders 

who were released in calendar year 2005 and analyzed in the Commission’s 2016 Recidivism Overview 

Report.

Chapter Overview

• Introduction

• Key Findings

• Measures & Methodology
Chapter One: 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

49.3 percent rearrest rate for all offenders reported in the Recidivism Overview 

Report.

These 10,888 offenders, who were all U.S. citizens, represent 42.8 percent 

of the 25,431 federal offenders who were released in calendar year 200510 and 

analyzed in the Recidivism Overview Report. Among those offenders in this 

group for whom drug type information was available,11 crack cocaine was the 

most common primary drug type, with 2,953 crack cocaine offenders (27.3% of 

the 10,814 offenders with a known primary drug type). The remaining primary 

drug types, in order of prevalence, were marijuana (n=2,570, 23.8%), powder 

cocaine (n=2,350, 21.7%), methamphetamine (n=1,826, 16.9%), and heroin 

(n=590, 5.5%). An additional 525 (4.9%) offenders had some other type of drug 

as the primary type of drug in their offense, and were not studied separately for 

purposes of this report.

This chapter summarizes the group studied in this report as well as its key 

findings. It also explains the methodology used in the report. Chapter Two 

provides an overview of the statutes and guidelines most often applicable to 

federal drug trafficking offenses, and reports the demographics and recidivist 

behavior of drug trafficking offenders as a whole. Chapters Three through Seven 

provide detailed information about offenders as classified by the drug types 

studied in this report: powder cocaine, crack cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and 

methamphetamine. Chapter Eight concludes by reviewing the report’s findings. 

Introduction

The Commission’s Ongoing Recidivism Research

The United States Sentencing Commission1 began studying recidivism 

shortly after the enactment of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (“SRA”). 

The Commission’s recent publication Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A 

Comprehensive Overview (“Recidivism Overview Report”) discussed the history 

of this study in greater detail.2 Recidivism information is central to three of the 

primary purposes of punishment described in the SRA—specific deterrence, 

incapacitation, and rehabilitation—all of which focus on prevention of future 

crimes through correctional intervention. Information about recidivism is 

also relevant to the Commission’s obligation to formulate sentencing policy 

that “reflect[s], to the extent practicable, advancements in knowledge of 

human behavior as it relates to the sentencing process.”3 Considerations of 

recidivism by federal offenders were also central to the Commission’s initial 

work in developing the Guidelines Manual’s criminal history provisions.4 They 

remain important to subsequent work, including the retroactive application of 

sentencing reductions in cases involving crack cocaine,5 and continue to be a key 

consideration in the Commission’s work today.

Recent developments, particularly public attention to the size of the 

federal prison population and the costs of incarceration,6

 have highlighted the 

importance of studying recidivism among federal offenders.7 The Commission’s 

current recidivism research substantially expands on the scope of previous 

Commission recidivism projects.8 In addition to a different set of offenders—

U.S. citizen federal offenders released in 2005—the project’s study group is 

much larger than those in previous Commission studies. A larger study group 

provides the opportunity to develop statistically useful conclusions about many 

subgroups of federal offenders.

This Report: Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

This report examines a group of 10,888 federal drug trafficking offenders 

who were released in calendar year 2005. They were originally sentenced 

between fiscal year 1991 and the first quarter of fiscal year 2006.9 Offenders 

were placed in this group based on the primary sentencing guideline that the 

court applied when sentencing the offender. One-half (50.0%) of these drug 

trafficking offenders were rearrested for a new crime or for an alleged violation 

of their supervision over the follow-up period of eight years. This compares to a 

Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1991 63 0.6%

1992 120 1.1%

1993 133 1.2%

1994 135 1.2%

1995 178 1.6%

1996 261 2.4%

1997 400 3.7%

1998 508 4.7%

1999 577 5.3%

2000 815 7.5%

2001 1,169 10.7%

2002 1,496 13.7%

2003 2,110 19.4%

2004 1,763 16.2%

2005 1,062 9.8%

2006 98 0.9%

TOTAL 10,888 100.0%

PrimaryDrug Type N %

Powder Cocaine 2,350 21.7%

Crack Cocaine 2,953 27.3%

Heroin 590 5.5%

Marijuana 2,570 23.8%

Methamphetamine 1,826 16.9%

Other 525 4.9%

TOTAL 10,814 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism 

Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Information on primary drug type is unavailable for 

offenders sentenced in fiscal year 1991. Of the remaining 

10,825 offenders, 11 offenders with missing information 

on primary drug type were excluded from the analysis. 

Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Table 1.1

Number of Drug Trafficking Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced and Primary Drug Type
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 3

Key findings of the Commission’s study of recidivism among drug trafficking 

offenders are that:

• Over the eight-year follow-up period, one-half (50.0%) of federal drug

trafficking offenders released in 2005 recidivated by being rearrested12

for a new crime or rearrested for a violation of supervision conditions.

• Crack cocaine offenders recidivated at the highest rate (60.8%) of any

drug type, while powder cocaine offenders recidivated at the lowest rate

(43.8%).

• Of those drug trafficking offenders who recidivated, the median time from

release to the first recidivism event was 25 months.

• Nearly one-fourth (23.8%) of drug trafficking offenders who recidivated

had assault as their most serious new charge followed by drug trafficking

and public order offenses.

• A federal drug trafficking offender’s criminal history was closely

associated with the likelihood of recidivism. Recidivism rates ranged

from 35.4 percent for offenders with zero criminal history points to 77.1

percent of offenders in the highest Criminal History Category of VI.

• A federal drug trafficking offender’s age at time of release into the

community was also closely associated with likelihood of recidivism.

Drug trafficking offenders released prior to age 21 had the highest

recidivism rate, 65.0 percent, while drug trafficking offenders over 60

years old at the time of release had the lowest recidivism rate of 16.5

percent.

• The strong associations of both criminal history and age with recidivism

rates are tied to certain other findings. There was an inverse association

between the base offense level under the guidelines (which is determined

by the drug type and quantity) and recidivism rates. Similarly, there

was an inverse association between both the presence and length of a

statutory drug mandatory minimum penalty and recidivism rates. The

longer sentences received by the more serious drug trafficking offenders

result in older ages at release, which is a likely factor affecting this result.

• There was little apparent association between the length of imprisonment

and recidivism for drug trafficking offenders overall. However, once

Criminal History Category is accounted for, length of imprisonment

is associated with lower rates of recidivism. Again, longer sentences

result in older ages at release, which combined with criminal history

differences, are likely factors affecting this result.

• Federal drug trafficking offenders had a substantially lower recidivism

rate compared to a cohort of state drug offenders released into the

community in 2005 and tracked by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Over

two-thirds (76.9%) of state drug offenders released from state prison

were rearrested within five years, compared to 41.9 percent of federal

drug trafficking offenders released from prison over the same five-year

period.

Key Findings

Recidivism Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 50.0% 30.8% 23.4%

Median Time to Recidivism 25 Months 34 Months 33 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(23.8%, n=1,297)

Drug Trafficking

(18.9%, n=633)

Drug Trafficking

(21.7%, n=553)

Median Age at Release 32 32 31

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases 

from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Median age at release is shown for recidivist offenders 

only. 

Rearrest

50.0%

Reconviction

30.8% Reincarceration

23.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

N=10,888

n=5,448

n=3,357

n=2,546

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Figure 1.1

Overview of Drug Trafficking Recidivism Study Findings

Table 1.2

Overview of Drug Trafficking Recidivism Study Findings
Chapter One: 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Reincarceration classifies a person as a recidivist if a conviction 

or revocation resulted in a prison or jail sentence as punishment. The 

reincarceration measure counts offenders who were reported returned 

to the Federal Bureau of Prisons, state prison, or local jail for any term of 

incarceration. Incomplete criminal records also create missing information 

about reincarceration.18

Many rearrests do not ultimately result in a reconviction or reincarceration 

for reasons relating to procedural safeguards (e.g., the suppression of evidence 

for an unconstitutional search or seizure), lack of sufficient evidence to convict 

or revoke, and prosecutorial or judicial resource limitations. To the extent that 

the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of relapse into criminal behavior, 

excluding events due to non-conviction or non-incarceration will result in 

underestimation of recidivism. Even using the least restrictive measure, 

rearrest, does not count the full extent of offender recidivism, as many crimes 

go unreported to police or, if reported, do not result in an arrest. For these 

reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several measures provides a more 

complete and nuanced picture of reoffending. The three measures overlap in 

some areas—meaning all offenders who were reconvicted or reincarcerated 

also were necessarily rearrested, too. Some offenders who were reconvicted, 

however, were not reincarcerated. Generally speaking, however, the measure of 

rearrest is larger than the measure of reconviction, which in turn is larger than 

the measure of reincarceration.

Measures of Recidivism and Methodology

Defining and Measuring Recidivism

Recidivism “refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after 

the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime.”13 

Measuring recidivism informs decision making about issues such as pretrial 

detention, appropriate sentence type and length, prisoner classification, prison 

programming, and offender supervision in the community. It also allows 

policymakers to evaluate the performance of the criminal justice system as a 

whole.14

Recidivism is typically measured by criminal acts that resulted in the 

rearrest, reconviction, and/or reincarceration of the offender over a specified 

period of time. These are the three recidivism measures used in this report, 

but the report primarily relies on the first—rearrest—with additional data 

regarding reconviction and reincarceration reported in the Appendix.15 

Providing data about multiple measures of recidivism allows users to select the 

performance measure best suited to their outcome of interest.

Rearrest classifies a person as a recidivist if he or she has been arrested for 

a new crime after being released into the community directly on probation or 

after serving a term of imprisonment. Rearrest also includes arrests for alleged 

violations of supervised release, probation, or state parole. The number of 

rearrests in the Commission’s analysis is based on the number of unique arrest 

dates, regardless of the number of individual charges arising from a single arrest 

event. Thus, if an offender was arrested on a single occasion for both driving 

under the influence and possession of cocaine, that arrest date would constitute 

a single rearrest event.

Reconviction classifies a person as a recidivist if an arrest resulted in a 

subsequent court conviction.16 Violations and revocations of supervision are not 

included in reconvictions since no formal prosecution occurred. While states 

have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal 

study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.17 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an 

undercounting of reconvictions, because missing dispositions for rearrests are 

treated as if reconviction and reincarceration did not occur. 
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 5

This report examines federal drug trafficking offenders, as classified by their 

primary sentencing guideline. Classifying offenders according to their primary 

sentencing guideline focuses on the offense guideline in Chapter Two of the 

Guidelines Manual that resulted in the offender’s highest final offense level. The 

selection of a guideline from Chapter Two is determined by a combination of 

the offense of conviction and relevant conduct. This method permits a uniform 

analysis of guideline-specific issues and focuses on those offenders for whom 

drug trafficking represented the most serious conduct, as assessed by the 

guidelines. This differs from the classification used in the Recidivism Overview 

Report, which classified an offender based on his or her offense of conviction, 

even if the final offense level was not calculated primarily based on that 

conviction.

Methodology of This Recidivism Study

In undertaking its current recidivism research, the Commission selected a 

follow-up period of eight years. It considered all recidivism events (including 

felonies, misdemeanors, and “technical” violations of the conditions of 

supervision), except minor traffic offenses, which occurred over that eight-year 

period. While this report includes summary findings using all three measures 

(rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration), it primarily relies on rearrest data 

in providing more detailed information about the recidivism of federal drug 

offenders.

Specifically, this report includes the time to the first recidivism event for 

those offenders who recidivated. Studying the timing of recidivism can help 

in understanding the process of desistance, as some offenders may be able to 

remain in the community for a considerable time before recidivating, while 

others recidivate very quickly. The report also includes the median number 

of recidivism events and the most serious type of post-release offense among 

those who recidivated. The report then investigates the association between 

recidivism and factors affecting sentence length, such as criminal history, base 

offense level, aggravating and mitigating factors, and sentence imposed relative 

to the guidelines. Finally, the report describes the association between age and 

recidivism. This information is reported first for drug trafficking offenders as a 

whole, then by drug type.

DRUG TRAFFICKING RECIDIVISM STUDY OFFENDERS

The offenders studied in this project are 10,888 federal drug trafficking offenderswho:

• were sentenced under USSG§§2D1.1 (Drug Trafficking),2D1.2 (Protected Locations), 2D1.5 (Continuing Criminal Enterprise), 2D1.6 (Use of a Communication Facility),2D1.8 

(Rent/Manage Drug Establishment), 2D1.10 (Endangering Human Life), or 2D1.14 (Narco-Terrorism);

• are citizens; 

• re-entered the community during calendar year 2005 after discharging their sentence of incarcerationor by commencing a term of probation in calendar year 2005;

• have valid FBI numberswhichcould be located in criminal history repositories (in at least one state, the District of Columbia, or federal records); and 

• met other study conditions discussed later in this report. 

Chapter Two:

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

This chapter analyzes recidivism among the 10,888 drug trafficking offenders as a whole. After providing 

a brief overview of the operation of the statutes and guidelines commonly applicable to federal drug 

trafficking offenses, it discusses the characteristics of the offenders in the study and their recidivist 

behavior. 

Over the eight-year study period, drug trafficking offenders recidivated at a rate of 50.0 percent. 

Chapter Overview:

• Offender & Offense Characteristics

• Sentences Imposed

• Recidivism Findings

Recidivism Rates

Rearrest

50.0%

Reconviction

30.8% Reincarceration

23.4%

n=5,448

n=3,357

n=2,546

N=10,888
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

8 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

guidelines linked drug BOLs with applicable mandatory minimums by setting 

the bottom of the guideline range derived from the drug quantity table at or 

slightly above the mandatory minimum sentence. For example, an offender 

with at least five grams, but less than 20 grams, of crack cocaine received 

an offense level of 26 in the 1998 Guidelines Manual.

27 At Criminal History 

Category (“CHC”) I, offense level 26 corresponded with a guideline range of 

63-78 months, just over the then-applicable mandatory minimum sentence of

five years for such a quantity of crack cocaine.28 Other factors (such as use of a

weapon, role in the offense, and acceptance of responsibility) play an important

role in determining the final offense level and accompanying guideline range

but, in general, a higher BOL will lead to a higher guideline range.

Statutory mandatory minimum penalties may be avoided, even when 

otherwise applicable based on drug quantity, in two ways. First, a “safety 

valve” reduction permits an offender who meets a set of mitigating criteria 

to be sentenced below an otherwise applicable mandatory minimum penalty 

and to receive a two-level reduction in the guideline offense level. Offenders 

who qualify may receive the two-level reduction even if they are not affected 

by a mandatory minimum penalty.29 Second, an offender who provides 

“substantial assistance” to the authorities may have an applicable mandatory 

minimum penalty waived and receive an additional offense level reduction 

under a guidelines departure provision.30 The extent of a substantial assistance 

departure is determined by the sentencing court in light of factors enumerated 

in the guideline, and is not limited to a specific number of offense levels.31 

As with the safety valve, an offender may receive the guideline offense level 

reduction for substantial assistance even if he or she is not convicted of an 

offense carrying a statutory minimum penalty.

Other features of an offender’s conduct or role in the offense may result in 

increases or reductions to the BOL. This report examines three such provisions 

in more detail. First, a weapon enhancement, defined as either a guidelines 

specific offense characteristic relating to a weapon32 or a conviction under 

18 U.S.C. § 924(c) for use of a firearm in connection with a drug trafficking 

offense,33 results in an offense level increase, and, in the case of a Section 924(c) 

conviction, an additional statutory minimum penalty. Second, offenders who 

were organizers, leaders, managers, or supervisors of an offense can receive 

an upward aggravating role adjustment of two to four levels.34 Third, offenders 

who were found to have a minor or minimal role in an offense may receive a 

downward mitigating role adjustment of two to four levels.35

Drug Trafficking Offenses and the Sentencing Process

Statutory and Guidelines Provisions

Federal drug trafficking offenders are primarily convicted of offenses under 

Title 21 of the U.S. Code. These statutes prohibit the distribution, manufacture, 

importation, and possession with intent to distribute of controlled substances 

generally,19 as well as more specific acts, such as maintaining a drug-involved 

premises,20 or the use of a “communication facility” to distribute drugs.21 These 

statutes impose mandatory minimum terms of imprisonment (most commonly 

of five or ten years) on those convicted of trafficking in specified quantities of 

some drugs. These penalties may be enhanced further based on an offender’s 

record of previous drug trafficking offenses.22

Convictions for violating these statutes are sentenced under Part D of Chapter 

Two of the Guidelines Manual. The principal drug trafficking guideline is §2D1.1 

(Unlawful Manufacturing, Importing, Exporting, or Trafficking), which typically 

applies to convictions to distribute, manufacture, import, or possess with intent 

to distribute controlled substances. The primary driver of the severity of an 

offender’s punishment under this guideline is the type and quantity of drugs 

for which he or she is accountable, although other factors, discussed in greater 

detail below, may also play a role.23

In addition to §2D1.1, this report includes offenders who were sentenced 

under six other guidelines in Chapter Two, Part D.24 These guidelines apply 

when an offender is convicted of violating particular statutes—for example, 

§2D1.2 (“Drug Offenses Occurring Near Protected Locations or Involving

Underage or Pregnant Individuals”) applies when an offender is convicted

under one of several statutes prohibiting the sale of drugs at certain locations

or to specified classes of persons.25 While these guidelines contain some

unique provisions reflecting the specific nature of the offense of conviction,

they also incorporate the drug quantity table at §2D1.1, and the drug quantity

for which an offender is held accountable is likely to be a major driver of his or

her recommended guideline range under any of the guidelines included in this

report.

Sentencing Drug Trafficking Offenders

The guidelines set a base offense level (“BOL”) for each offense, most often 

based on the statute of conviction. In the case of drug offenses, the BOL is 

additionally determined by the type and quantity of drugs attributable to the 

offender.26 During the years the offenders in this study were sentenced, the 
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 9

Offender and Offense Characteristics

Demographics

Similar proportions of drug trafficking offenders were White (34.6%) and 

Black (37.2%). About one-quarter (25.5%) were Hispanic, while 2.6 percent 

were of another race. A majority (84.2%) was male.

The median drug trafficking offender was 30 years old at the time of 

sentencing, and 34 years old at the time of release. Those aged 31 to 35 

represented the largest single age group at the time of release (21.4%). Few 

offenders were over age 60 at either the time of sentencing (1.1%) or release 

(2.3%). Somewhat more offenders were under age 21 at the time of sentencing 

(5.7%), while only 1.3 percent were under 21 at the time of release. Offenders 

aged 21 to 25 represented the largest single age group at the time of sentencing 

(23.4%), although the 26 to 30 age group was nearly equivalent, at 23.2 percent. 

After an offense level has been determined based on the characteristics 

of the instant offense, the guidelines assign criminal history points for prior 

convictions meeting certain criteria (for example, generally speaking, more 

points are assigned to prior convictions that resulted in longer terms of 

imprisonment, and convictions that occurred more than specified periods of 

years before an offender’s instant federal offense are considered “stale” and not 

counted).36 The number of points an offender receives determines his or her 

placement in one of six criminal history categories.37 

Once these calculations are complete, a recommended term of imprisonment, 

expressed in months, is determined by use of the Sentencing Table found in 

Chapter Five of the Guidelines Manual.

38 The Sentencing Table is a grid that 

accounts for both the offender’s final offense level (which is the base offense 

level, as altered by any aggravating or mitigating adjustments or adjustments 

based on multiple counts) and the offender’s CHC. 

Younger than 21

5.7%

(n=618)

Ages 21 to 25

23.4%

(n=2,540)

Ages 26 to 30

23.2%

(n=2,523)

Ages 31 to 35

16.1%

(n=1,748)

Ages 36 to 40 

12.3%

(n=1,337)

Ages 41 to 50

13.4%

(n=1,453)

Ages 51 to 60

4.9%

(n=536)

Older than 60

1.1%

(n=119)

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21

1.3%

(n=137)

Ages 21 to 25

12.3%

(n=1,335)

Ages 26 to 30

20.3%

(n=2,204)

Ages 31 to 35

21.4%

(n=2,329)

Ages 36 to 40

15.7%

(n=1,706)

Ages 41 to 50

18.7%

(n=2,038)

Ages 51 to 60

8.1%

(n=876)

Older than 60

2.3%

(n=249)

Age at Release

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 3,766 34.6%

Black 4,050 37.2%

Hispanic 2,774 25.5%

Other 287 2.6%

Gender N %

Male 9,164 84.2%

Female 1,721 15.8%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizens 10,888 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 30 Years

Median Age at Release 34 Years

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Figure 2.1

Demographic Characteristics of Drug Trafficking Offenders
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

10 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Offense Characteristics

Nearly equal proportions of drug trafficking 

offenders had BOLs of either between 26 and 30 

(37.3%) or between 32 and 42 (37.2%), while another 

quarter (25.5%) had a BOL of between 6 and 24.39

A majority (62.5%) of drug trafficking offenders 

were convicted of a drug offense carrying a statutory 

drug mandatory minimum penalty; in nearly all those 

cases the applicable mandatory minimum penalty was 

either five or ten years.40

Just over a third (34.9%) of all drug trafficking 

offenders received a safety valve reduction at their 

original sentencing. 

Only 14.3 percent of all drug trafficking offenders 

received a weapon enhancement. A small number 

(6.2%) received an aggravating role adjustment, while 

approximately one-fifth (19.3%) received a mitigating 

role adjustment. 

85.7%

14.3%

65.2%

34.9%

93.8%

6.2%

80.7%

19.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither

(n=9,335)

SOC/924(c)

(n=1,553)

No Safety Valve

(n=6,779)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=3,626)

No Adjustment

(n=10,209)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=679)

No Adjustment

(n=8,791)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=2,097)

Safety Valve Mitigating Role 

Adjustment

Weapon 

Enhancement

Aggravating Role

Adjustment

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from each analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. The weapon enhancement analysis includes offenders with a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) and/or the application of a weapon enhancement under the guidelines. The safety valve analysis accounts 

for safety valve relief under USSG §§5C1.2 and 2D1.1. Safety valve did not exist prior to fiscal year 1995 and the safety valve analysis excludes offenders sentenced in fiscal years 1991 through 1994. The aggravating 

role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any positive value under USSG §3B1.1. The mitigating role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any negative value under USSG §3B1.2. In addition, offenders 

sentenced under USSG §2D1.8(a)(2) are included as receiving mitigating role. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

25.5%

37.3% 37.2% 37.5%

0.5%

29.8% 31.0%

1.1% 0.1% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL 6-24

(n=2,748)

BOL 26-30

(n=4,018)

BOL 32-42

(n=4,004)

None

(n=4,006)

12 Months

(n=57)

60 Months

(n=3,191)

120 Months

(n=3,313)

240 Months

(n=119)

Life

(n=11)

Base Offense Level Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. Base Offense Level values reflect the BOL from the Drug Quantity Table (DQT) at USSG §2D1.1 prior to the 

application of the mitigating role cap or any adjustments under other guideline provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline provisions without reference to the DQT (e.g., §2D1.1(a)(1), §2D1.2(a)(3)) and 

offenders missing information required to determine the BOL prior to the application of the mitigating role cap were excluded from the base offense level analysis (n=118). Information on drug statutory mandatory 

minimum penalties is unavailable in fiscal years 1991 and 1992 and offenders sentenced in those years were excluded from the drug mandatory minimum analysis. Of the remaining 10,705 offenders, eight were 

excluded from this analysis due to missing or unusual drug statutory mandatory minimum penalty information. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Figure 2.2

Application Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 2.3

Application Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 11

Criminal History 

Over one-third (36.5%) of drug trafficking offenders received no criminal 

history points, the largest proportion of offenders at any point level. The next 

largest proportions were at one point (13.8%) and three points (8.5%). 

The majority of drug trafficking offenders (50.3%) were in Criminal History 

Category (CHC) I, followed by 17.1 percent in CHC III and 14.5 percent in CHC 

II. In addition to the 3.5 percent of offenders who were classified in CHC VI

based on their number of criminal history points, an additional 3.2 percent

were designated as career offenders/armed career criminals, and were typically

placed in CHC VI on that basis, even if they would otherwise have fallen into a

lower CHC.41

Figure 2.4

Criminal History Scores of Drug Trafficking Offenders

36.5%

13.8%

6.0% 8.5% 6.6% 5.0% 5.9% 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 1.8%

7.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=3,958)

1

(n=1,497)

2

(n=649)

3

(n=927)

4

(n=717)

5

(n=544)

6

(n=640)

7

(n=319)

8

(n=330)

9

(n=288)

10

(n=192)

More than 10

(n=797)

CHC I

50.3%

(n=5,453)

CHC II

14.5%

(n=1,567)

CHC III

17.1%

(n=1,852)

CHC IV

7.6%

(n=828)

CHC V

3.8%

(n=412)

CHC VI

3.5%

(n=376)

Career Offender/ 

Armed Career Criminal

3.2%

(n=348)

Criminal History Category

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. Criminal History Points may not sum to the expected Criminal History Category due to career offender/armed career criminal classification or missing information. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to 

rounding.
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

12 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Findings

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration

As explained above, this report primarily relies on the rate of rearrest 

to measure recidivism. Measured this way, the recidivism rate for all drug 

Sentences Originally Imposed

An overwhelming majority of drug trafficking offenders were sentenced to 

at least some term of incarceration, either in the form of prison only (93.0%) 

or a “split sentence” of prison and community confinement (1.7%). Another 

3.7 percent were sentenced to probation, while 1.6 percent were sentenced to a 

combination of probation and community confinement.

Of the 94.7 percent who were sentenced to prison, the most frequently 

imposed sentence length was between 24 and 59 months (36.8%), followed by 

60 to 119 months (31.1%). Nearly a fifth (19.0%) received a sentence of 120 

months or more, while 3.3 percent received a sentence of less than 12 months. 

A majority of drug trafficking offenders (57.8%) received a sentence that was 

within their sentencing guideline range. Almost one-third (32.8%) received 

below-range sentences due to a departure granted for providing substantial 

assistance to the government in the investigation or prosecution of another 

person who had committed an offense. Another 6.8 percent received belowrange sentences that were not requested by the government. Small numbers 

received below-range sentences that were requested by the government for 

some reason other than providing substantial assistance (2.3%), or received 

above-range sentences (0.2%).

Up to 6 Months

1.7%

(n=175)

6 to 11 Months

1.6%

(n=169)

12 to 23 Months

9.7%

(n=998)

24 to 59 Months

36.8%

(n=3,784) 60 to 119 Months

31.1%

(n=3,202)

120 Months or More

19.0%

(n=1,954)

Sentence Type Length of Imprisonment

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. The sentence length analysis does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as described in USSG §5C1.1. 

Prison Only

93.0%

(n=10,103)

Prison/Community Split Sentence

1.7%

(n=185)

Probation/Community Confinement

1.6%

(n=168)

Probation Only 

3.7%

(n=405)

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range

57.8%

(n=6,131)

Above Range

0.2%

(n=26)

Substantial Assistance 

(USSG §5K1.1)

32.8%

(n=3,486)

Other Government 

Sponsored Below Range

2.3%

(n=246)

Below Range

6.8%

(n=726)

Figure 2.5

Sentences Imposed on Drug Trafficking Offenders

Non-Government Sponsored 

Within Range

57.8%

(n=6,131)

Above Range

0.2%

(n=26)

Substantial Assistance

(USSG §5K1.1)

32.8%

(n=3,486)

Other Government

Sponsored Below Range

2.3%

(n=246)

Non-Government Sponsored

Below Range

6.8%

(n=726)

Table 2.1

Recidivism Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 50.0% 30.8% 23.4%

Median Time to Recidivism 25 Months 34 Months 33 Months

Median Number of Recidivism 

Events 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(23.8%, n=1,297)

Drug Trafficking

(18.9%, n=633)

Drug Trafficking

(21.7%, n=553)

Median Age at Release 32 32 31

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases 

from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Median age at release is shown for recidivist offenders 

only. 

Position Relative to the Guideline Range
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 13

crime-prone interval. 

The median time to recidivism (among those drug trafficking offenders 

who recidivated) was 25 months, meaning that for one-half of the offenders, 

recidivism occurred within 25 months of their release, while the other half 

recidivated more than 25 months after release. Among those who recidivated, 

the median number of recidivism events (events occurring on separate days) 

was two.

As the follow-up period progressed, each year saw fewer offenders recidivate 

for the first time. During the first year following release into the community, 

13.6 percent of the drug trafficking offenders recidivated for the first time. This 

rate fell to 10.9 percent in the second year and 7.0 percent in the third year. 

offenders combined was 50.0 percent. As expected, the reconviction rate 

(30.8%) for all drug offenders was lower, and the reincarceration rate (23.4%) 

was lower still. The Appendix contains more detailed information using all 

three measures of recidivism.

Time to First Recidivism Event

The length of time from an offender’s release into the community to his 

or her first recidivism event can be useful in distinguishing offenders who 

recidivate early from those who eventually recidivate, but are apparently crimefree for a longer interval. Tracking the length of time to first failure can also 

help policymakers determine an appropriate period of supervision after the 

release from prison, for example by extending supervision through the peak 

Figure 2.6

Time to First Rearrest of Drug Trafficking Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. In cases in which any reconviction or reincarceration is known, but the date of arrest leading to the 

reconviction/reincarceration is unknown, the reconviction/reincarceration date is assigned as the rearrest date.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Rearrest, 50.0%

Reconviction, 30.8%

Reincarceration, 23.4%

Median Time to First Rearrest:

25 Months

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year After Release 1,483 13.6% 13.6%

Two Years After Release 1,187 10.9% 24.5%

Three Years After Release 768 7.0% 31.5%

Four Years After Release 617 5.7% 37.2%

Five Years After Release 464 4.3% 41.5%

Six Years After Release 386 3.5% 45.0%

Seven Years After Release 308 2.8% 47.8%

Eight Years After Release 235 2.2% 50.0%
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

14 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Only 2.2 percent of offenders recidivated for the first time in the eighth year.

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

The Commission adapted a widely used ranking of offense types to evaluate 

the seriousness of the offenses for which offenders were rearrested.42 When 

considering only the single “most serious” offense type of all drug trafficking 

offenders who recidivated, assault was most common, constituting the most 

serious offense for 23.8 percent, followed by drug trafficking (15.3%) and “other 

public order” offenses (14.4%).43 Three other types of offenses represented the 

most serious offense types for at least five percent of drug trafficking offenders: 

DUI/DWI offenses (9.3%), drug possession (9.2%), and larceny (6.2%). 

Recidivism Compared to State Drug Offenders 

Federal drug traffickers had a lower recidivism rate than a cohort of state 

drug offenders released into the community in 2005 and tracked by the Bureau 

of Justice Statistics. That study found that 76.9 percent of drug offenders44

released from state prison recidivated within five years.45 The Commission, 

using a comparable follow-up period of five years and including only federal 

drug trafficking offenders released from prison, found a recidivism rate of 41.9 

percent.46

1.2% 1.4% 2.6%

23.8%

1.2%

15.3%

1.8%

6.2% 2.9% 3.0%

9.2%

3.6% 1.0%

9.3%

14.4%

0.1% 3.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Figure 2.7

 Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 15

Recidivism and Criminal History

The relationship between prior criminal record and 

recidivism has been recognized by the Commission since 

its inception, as discussed in Chapter Four of the Guidelines 

Manual.

47 Empirical research assessing the relationship 

between recidivism and criminal career behavior was 

consulted in formulating the criminal history scoring system, 

and recent research has confirmed the strength of that 

relationship.48 As the Guidelines Manual explains, in order 

“to protect the public from further crimes of the particular 

offender, the likelihood of recidivism and future criminal 

behavior must be considered.”49 

Recidivism rates for drug trafficking offenders were 

strongly associated with total criminal history points, a 

result consistent with the Commission’s prior research. 50 

Among drug trafficking offenders, 35.4 percent of offenders 

with zero criminal history points recidivated within eight 

years, compared to 74.9 percent of offenders with more 

than ten criminal history points. Each additional criminal 

history point was generally associated with a higher rate of 

recidivism, even if the recidivism rate did not always climb 

evenly from one criminal history point to the next.

Because the number of criminal history points 

determines the CHC to which an offender is assigned, 

recidivism rates are also associated with CHC. That is, the 

higher the CHC, the higher the recidivism rate. Recidivism 

rates among drug trafficking offenders ranged from a low of 

39.0 percent for those in CHC I to a high of 77.1 percent for 

those who were in CHC VI based on their accumulation of 

criminal history points. Career offenders and armed career 

criminals recidivated at a higher rate (62.6%) than drug 

trafficking offenders as a whole, but at a lower rate than 

offenders classified in CHC IV (68.1%), CHC V (73.8%), or 

CHC VI based on criminal history points.

35.4%

48.1%

54.7%

50.3%

55.4%

59.9% 63.1% 65.2% 66.4% 67.7%

73.4% 74.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=3,958)

1

(n=1,497)

2

(n=649)

3

(n=927)

4

(n=717)

5

(n=544)

6

(n=640)

7

(n=319)

8

(n=330)

9

(n=288)

10

(n=192)

More than 10

(n=797)

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

39.0%

52.4%

59.5%

68.1%

73.8% 77.1%

62.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I

(n=5,453)

CHC II

(n=1,567)

CHC III

(n=1,852)

CHC IV

(n=828)

CHC V

(n=412)

CHC VI

(n=376)

Career Offender/

Armed Career Criminal

(n=348)

Criminal History Category

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 

Figure 2.8

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Points

Figure 2.9

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Category
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

16 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

than those with BOLs of between 32 and 42.51 As discussed below and in the 

Recidivism Overview Report, younger age at release is associated with higher 

recidivism, and this may be at least one factor explaining the link between 

recidivism and BOL. 

Similarly, there was an inverse association between the length of any drug 

mandatory minimum penalty and recidivism rate.52 Recidivism among drug 

trafficking offenders not convicted of a drug offense carrying a mandatory 

minimum penalty was 54.7 percent, while those convicted of an offense carrying 

a five-year mandatory minimum penalty had a lower recidivism rate of 50.6 

percent, those convicted of an offense carrying a ten-year mandatory minimum 

penalty had an even lower recidivism rate of 44.7 percent, and those convicted 

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

For drug trafficking offenders as a whole, there was an inverse association 

between an offender’s guideline BOL, which is driven by drug type and quantity, 

and the rate of recidivism. Offenders with BOLs of between 6 and 24 recidivated 

at a rate of 56.8 percent, while those with a BOL of 26 to 30 recidivated at a 

lower rate of 51.5 percent, and those with a BOL between 32 and 42 recidivated 

at an even lower rate of 44.1 percent. Lower BOLs correspond to lower 

guideline ranges, and therefore generally shorter periods of imprisonment and 

somewhat younger ages at time of release. Conversely, offenders with higher 

BOLs were typically older upon release from prison. For example, offenders 

with BOLs of between 6 and 24 were about two years younger upon release 

than offenders with BOLs of between 26 to 30, and four years younger 

56.8%

51.5%

44.1%

54.7%

50.6%

44.7%

37.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL 6-24

(n=2,748)

BOL 26-30

(n=4,018)

BOL 32-42

(n=4,004)

None

(n=4,006)

60 Months

(n=3,191)

120 Months

(n=3,313)

240 Months

(n=119)

Base Offense Level Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. Base Offense Level values reflect the BOL from the Drug Quantity Table (DQT) at USSG §2D1.1 prior to the 

application of the mitigating role cap or any adjustments under other guideline provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline provisions without reference to the DQT (e.g., §2D1.1(a)(1), §2D1.2(a)(3)) 

and offenders missing information required to determine the BOL prior to the application of the mitigating role cap were excluded from the base offense level analysis (n=118). Information on drug statutory 

mandatory minimum penalties is unavailable in fiscal years 1991 and 1992 and offenders sentenced in those years were excluded from the drug mandatory minimum analysis. Of the remaining 10,705 offenders, 

eight were excluded from this analysis due to missing or unusual drug statutory mandatory minimum penalty information. 

Figure 2.10

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 17

of an offense carrying a mandatory minimum penalty of 20 years had the 

lowest recidivism rate, 37.0 percent. As with BOL, those convicted of no drug 

offenses carrying a mandatory minimum penalty were about four years younger 

at release than those convicted of offenses carrying a ten-year mandatory 

minimum penalty, and this relative youth at release may be one factor explaining 

the link between lower mandatory minimum penalties and higher recidivism. 

Although those offenders who received a safety valve reduction had a 

decreased rate of recidivism, this difference is largely explained by the minimal 

criminal history an offender must have in order to receive the safety valve 

reduction. Offenders who qualified for a safety valve reduction had a recidivism 

rate of 40.5 percent, while those who did not qualify had a rate of 55.7 percent. 

An offender must have no more than one criminal history point in order to

receive the safety valve. One way to isolate the effect of this low criminal history 

level (as opposed to any other characteristic of those offenders receiving safety 

valve relief) is to examine the effect of the safety valve among CHC I offenders 

only. In that group, those who received a safety valve reduction recidivated 

39.9 percent of the time, while those who received no safety valve reduction 

recidivated at nearly the same rate (38.3%). It appears that the reduction in 

recidivism that might be attributed to application of the safety valve is almost 

entirely due to the limitation on the safety valve reduction to offenders with no 

more than one criminal history point. 

There was no relationship between application of a weapon enhancement 

and recidivism. Offenders with a weapon enhancement recidivated at a rate 

of 50.9 percent, compared to 49.9 percent for drug trafficking offenders not 

receiving a weapon enhancement. 

49.9% 50.9%

55.7%

40.5% 38.3% 39.9%

50.8%

39.3%

50.5% 48.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither

(n=9,335)

SOC/924(c)

(n=1,553)

No Safety

Valve

(n=6,779)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=3,626)

No Safety

Valve

(n=1,747)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=3,533)

No

Adjustment

(n=10,209)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=679)

No

Adjustment

(n=8,791)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=2,097)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from each analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. The weapon enhancement analysis includes offenders with a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) and/or the application of a weapon enhancement under the guidelines. The safety valve analyses account 

for safety valve relief under USSG §§5C1.2 and 2D1.1. Safety valve did not exist prior to fiscal year 1995 and the safety valve analyses excludes offenders sentenced in fiscal years 1991 through 1994. The number of 

offenders in the CHC I group may not equal the total number of offenders with safety valve applied in the All Offenders group due to missing information on Criminal History Category or safety valve application in 

cases with higher Criminal History Categories. The aggravating role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any positive value under USSG §3B1.1. The mitigating role adjustment analysis includes offenders 

with any negative value under USSG §3B1.2. In addition, offenders sentenced under USSG §2D1.8(a)(2) are included as receiving mitigating role. 

Safety Valve

(All Offenders)

Mitigating Role 

Adjustment

Weapon 

Enhancement

Aggravating Role

Adjustment

Safety Valve

(CHC I Offenders)

Figure 2.11 

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

18 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Receipt of an aggravating role enhancement was 

inversely associated with recidivism. Drug trafficking 

offenders who had an aggravating role in the offense 

recidivated at a lower rate than those who did not 

(39.3% versus 50.8%). 

Receipt of a mitigating role reduction had no 

association with recidivism rate. Offenders who had a 

mitigating role had only a slightly lower recidivism rate 

than for those offenders who did not receive such an 

adjustment (48.0% versus 50.5%). 

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

The type of sentence an offender received in relation 

to the applicable guideline range had little to no 

association with recidivism. Offenders who received 

within-range sentences, below-range sentences due to 

§5K1.1 substantial assistance motions, and below-range

sentences that were not sponsored by the government

all recidivated at rates of approximately 50 percent

(non-government sponsored below-range sentences

led to the lowest recidivism rate, at 47.3%). There was

an insufficient number of offenders who received other

types of sentences relative to the guidelines to conduct

a meaningful analysis.

There was also little apparent association between 

the length of an offender’s original federal sentence 

and rate of recidivism. The two lowest recidivism rates 

belonged to offenders sentenced to six months or less 

(40.6%) and 120 months or more (47.8%), while the 

remainder of sentence lengths led to recidivism rates 

of between 50.2 percent (24 to 59 months) and 55.6 

percent (6-11 months). 

40.6%

55.6% 52.8% 50.2% 52.2% 47.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up to 6 Months

(n=175)

6 to 11 Months

(n=169)

12 to 23 Months

(n=998)

24 to 59 Months

(n=3,784)

60 to 119 Months

(n=3,202)

120 Months or More

(n=1,954)

Length of Federal Imprisonment Sentence Imposed

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as described 

in USSG §5C1.1. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Figure 2.13

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment

Figure 2.12

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Selected Positions Relative to the Guideline Range

50.0% 50.1% 47.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Within Range

(n=6,131)

 Substantial Assistance (§5K1.1 )

(n=3,486)

Non-Gov't Spons. Below Range

(n=726)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Length of Imprisonment
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 19

However, an association between length of imprisonment and rate 

of recidivism appears when a third factor, Criminal History Category, is 

considered.53 For example, among CHC I offenders, offenders sentenced to 

between 12 and 23 months had a higher recidivism rate (44.5%) than those 

with all categories of longer sentences: 24 to 59 months (40.7%); 60 to 119 

months (36.4%); and 120 months or more (30.7%). As the sentence length 

increased, the recidivism rate dropped. The same pattern of association 

between longer sentences and lower recidivism rates occurred for every 

criminal history category.54 The inverse association between sentence length 

and likelihood of recidivism within each criminal history category is likely 

attributable, at least in part, to the effect that age has on recidivism. 

Figure 2.14 

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment & Criminal History Category

44.5%

63.9%

67.4%

79.5% 81.8%

100.0%

40.7%

56.8%

64.2%

71.4%

80.8% 79.0%

36.4%

51.4%

58.4%

68.3%

74.6%

79.4%

30.7%

39.5%

51.3%

62.3%

66.9%

72.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI

12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as 

described in USSG §5C1.1. This analysis excludes offenders classified as Career Offenders or Armed Career Criminals. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. See appendix for the number of offenders in each category. 

Criminal History Category
Chapter Two: 

ALL DRUG TRAFFICKERS

20 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Age

 Among all drug trafficking offenders, recidivism rates declined steadily by 

age group, whether measured at sentencing or at release. This is consistent 

with prior studies, which have repeatedly shown that recidivism is inversely 

associated with age.55 Examining age at sentencing, drug trafficking offenders 

who were younger than 21 had a 69.7 percent recidivism rate, compared to 13.5 

percent who were sentenced after age 60. 

The older an offender was at release, the less likely he or she was to 

recidivate. Examining age at release, those drug trafficking offenders who were 

under 21 had the highest recidivism rate, 65.0 percent, while those aged 21 to 

25 were close behind at 64.8 percent. Those oldest at release, over 60 

years old, had the lowest recidivism rate, 16.5 percent. The steepest declines in 

recidivism rates based on age at release came between the 41 to 50 and 51 to 60 

age groups. Those released when they were between 41 and 50 recidivated at 

a rate of 40.3 percent, while those released when they were between 51 and 60 

recidivated at a rate of 25.9 percent.

Age at Sentencing Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 

69.7%

62.2%

55.1%

46.3% 44.8%

33.6%

23.5%

13.5%

65.0% 64.8%

59.9%

54.3%

47.7%

40.3%

25.9%

16.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 21 21 to 25 years 26 to 30 years 31 to 35 years 36 to 40 years 41 to 50 years 51-60 years Older than 60

n=618 n=137 n=2,540 n=1,335 n=2,523 n=2,204 n=1,748 n=2,329 n=1,337 n=1,706 n=1,453 n=2,038 n=536 n=876 n=119 n=249

Figure 2.15

Rearrest Rates for Drug Trafficking Offenders by Age at Sentencing & Release
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 21

Chapter Three:

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

This chapter analyzes recidivism among the 2,350 federal powder cocaine trafficking offenders in the 

larger study group of 10,888 drug trafficking offenders. 

Over the eight-year study period, powder cocaine offenders recidivated at a rate of 43.8 percent, as 

compared to 50.0 percent for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. 

Chapter Overview

• Offender & Offense Characteristics

• Sentences Imposed

• Recidivism Findings

Recidivism Rates

Rearrest

43.8%

Reconviction

25.7% Reincarceration

18.5%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

n=1,029

n=603

n=435

N=2,350
Chapter Three: 

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

24 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Powder cocaine offenders were, generally, slightly older at sentencing and 

release than drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The median powder cocaine 

offender was 31 years old at the time of sentencing and 35 years old at the time 

of release, as compared to median ages of 30 and 34 for all drug trafficking 

offenders. Offenders aged 26 to 30 represented the largest single age group 

at the time of sentencing (24.6%), while those aged 31 to 35 represented the 

largest single age group at the time of release (22.5%). Few offenders were over 

age 60 at either the time of sentencing (1.3%) or release (3.1%). Slightly more 

offenders were under age 21 at the time of sentencing (3.8%), although only 0.6 

percent were under 21 at the time of release. 

Offender and Offense Characteristics

Demographics

Compared to drug trafficking offenders as a whole, powder cocaine offenders 

were more likely to be Hispanic and less likely to be White. Among powder 

cocaine offenders, approximately equal percentages were Black (37.1%) and 

Hispanic (36.5%), while 24.9 percent were White and 1.6 percent were of 

another race. Among all drug trafficking offenders, nearly equal numbers were 

Black (37.2%) and White (34.6%), and 25.5 percent were Hispanic. As with all 

drug trafficking offenders, a majority (85.7%) of powder cocaine offenders were 

male.

Younger	
  than	
  21

3.8%

(n=90) Ages	
  21	
  to	
  25

18.8%

(n=440)

Ages	
  26	
  to	
  30

24.6%

Ages	
  31	
  to	
  35 (n=576)

19.2%

(n=451)

Ages	
  36	
  to	
  40	
  

14.1%

(n=330)

Ages	
  41	
  to	
  50

13.1%

(n=306)

Ages	
  51	
  to	
  60

5.1%

(n=120)

Older	
  than	
  60

1.3%

(n=31)

Age	
  at	
  Sentencing

Younger	
  than	
  21

0.6%

(n=14) Ages	
  21	
  to	
  25

9.6%

(n=226)

Ages	
  26	
  to	
  30

18.3%

(n=430)

Ages	
  31	
  to	
  35

22.5%

(n=527)

Ages	
  36	
  to	
  40

18.6%

(n=437)

Ages	
  41	
  to	
  50

19.0%

(n=446)

Ages	
  51	
  to	
  60

8.2%

(n=192)

Older	
  than	
  60

3.1%

(n=72)

Age	
  at	
  Release

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 584 24.9%

Black 870 37.1%

Hispanic 856 36.5%

Other 38 1.6%

Gender N %

Male 2,014 85.7%

Female 335 14.3%

Citizenship N %

U.S.	
  Citizens 2,350 100.0%

Age

Median	
  Age	
  at	
  Sentencing 31	
  Years

Median	
  Age at	
  Release 35	
  Years

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 3.1

Demographic Characteristics of Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 25

Offense Characteristics

Powder cocaine offender BOLs were similar to 

those for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. 

Nearly equal proportions of powder cocaine 

offenders had BOLs of between 26 and 30 (41.0%) 

or 32 and 42 (40.8%), with the remainder (18.2%) 

having BOLs of 24 or less.56

Powder cocaine offenders were convicted of drug 

offenses carrying a mandatory minimum penalty 

more frequently than drug trafficking offenders 

generally. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) of 

powder cocaine offenders were convicted of such 

an offense; in nearly all those cases the applicable 

mandatory minimum was either five or ten years. 

A smaller majority (62.5%) of all drug trafficking 

offenders were convicted of a drug offense carrying 

a mandatory minimum penalty.

 Powder cocaine offenders received safety 

valve relief more often than did all drug trafficking 

offenders. Almost two-fifths (39.2%) of powder 

cocaine offenders received a safety valve reduction 

at their original sentencing, compared to 34.9 

percent of all drug trafficking offenders.

Powder cocaine offenders were slightly less 

likely than all drug offenders to receive a weapon 

enhancement (12.7% versus 14.3%). They were 

slightly more likely to receive an aggravating role 

adjustment (7.9% versus 6.2%), or a mitigating role 

adjustment (22.3% versus 19.3%). 

87.3%

12.7%

60.8%

39.2%

92.1%

7.9%

77.7%

22.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,051)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=299)

No	
  Safety	
  Valve	
  

(n=1,355)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=872)

No	
  Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,165)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=185)

No	
  Adjustment	
  

(n=1,825)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=525)

Safety	
  Valve Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  The	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  a	
  conviction	
  under	
  18	
  U.S.C.	
  § 924(c)	
  and/or	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  a	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  under	
  the	
  guidelines.	
  The	
  safety	
  valve	
  analysis	
  accounts	
  

for	
  safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analysis	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1992	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  aggravating	
  

role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  

sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

18.2%

41.0% 40.8%

27.1%

0.3%

34.2% 37.3%

1.1% 0.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=422)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=948)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=945)

None

(n=622)

12	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=7)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=785)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=857)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=26)

Life	
  	
  	
  

(n=2)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  or	
  any	
  adjustments	
  under	
  other	
  guideline	
  provisions.	
  Offenders	
  with	
  BOLs	
  determined	
  by guideline	
  provisions	
  without	
  reference	
  to	
  the	
  DQT	
  (e.g.,	
  §2D1.1(a)(1),	
  §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=35).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  2,301	
  offenders,	
  two	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 3.2

Application Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 3.3

Application Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Three: 

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

26 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

43.2%

13.3%

6.0% 8.8% 5.8% 4.5% 5.0% 2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 1.3%

4.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,012)

1	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=312)

2	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=140)

3	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  

(n=205)

4	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=136)

5	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=105)

6	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=118)

7	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=57)

8	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=69)

9	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=50)

10	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  

(n=30)

More	
  than	
  10	
  	
  

(n=109)

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

CHC	
  I

56.6%

(n=1,321)

CHC	
  II

14.6%

(n=340)

CHC	
  III

15.2%

(n=355)

CHC	
  IV

6.3%

(n=146)

CHC	
  V

2.6%

(n=61)

CHC	
  VI

1.8%

(n=42)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal

3.0%

(n=69)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Points	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  the	
  expected	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  due	
  to	
  career	
  offender/armed	
  career	
  criminal	
  classification	
  or	
  missing	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  

rounding.

Criminal History

Powder cocaine offenders had somewhat less serious criminal histories than 

drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The largest single proportion (43.2%) 

received no criminal history points, while 13.3 percent received one point and 

4.7 percent received more than ten points. The majority of powder cocaine 

offenders (56.6%) were in CHC I, followed by 15.2 percent in CHC III and 14.6 

percent in CHC II. In addition to the 1.8 percent of offenders who were classified 

in CHC VI based on their number of criminal history points, an additional 3.0 

percent were designated as career offenders or armed career criminals. By 

comparison, just over one-third of all drug trafficking offenders (36.5%) had 

zero criminal history points, and a smaller majority (50.3%) were in CHC I. 

Sentences Originally Imposed

Powder cocaine offenders typically received prison sentences similar to 

those of the overall drug trafficking group. An overwhelming majority (95.6%) 

of powder cocaine offenders were sentenced to some term of incarceration. Of 

those who were incarcerated, less than one fifth (19.5%) received sentences of 

120 months or more; 31.7 percent received sentences of 60 to 119 months; and 

the remaining 48.8 percent received sentences of less than 60 months. Similarly, 

most drug trafficking offenders were also imprisoned for some length of time 

(94.7%), with 19.0 percent receiving a sentence of 120 months or more and 

nearly half (49.8%) receiving a sentence of less than 60 months.

Figure 3.4

Criminal History Scores of Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 27

As explained above, recidivism throughout this study was primarily reported 

by rearrest data; however, analysis also showed that powder cocaine offenders 

were reconvicted of another offense at a rate of 25.7 percent, and reincarcerated 

at a rate of 18.5 percent. This compares with a reconviction rate of 30.8 percent 

and a reincarceration rate of 23.4 percent for all drug offenders. The Appendix 

contains more detailed information using these two measures of recidivism.

A majority of powder cocaine offenders (59.4%) received a sentence that was 

within their sentencing guideline range. Almost one-third (33.1%) received 

below-range sentences due to a departure granted for providing substantial 

assistance to the government. Another 6.0 percent received below-range 

sentences that were not requested by the government. Smaller numbers 

received below-range sentences that were requested by the government for 

some reason other than providing substantial assistance (1.3%), or received 

above-range sentences (0.3%). These numbers are similar to those for drug 

trafficking offenders as a whole.

Recidivism Findings 

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration

Powder cocaine offenders had the lowest rate of recidivism (43.8%, or 1,029 

of the 2,350 total powder cocaine offenders) of any drug type measured in the 

study. The recidivism rate for all drug offenders combined was 50.0 percent. 

Recidivism	
  	
  Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 43.8% 25.7% 18.5%

Median	
  Time	
  to	
  Recidivism 29	
  Months 40	
  Months 39	
  Months

Median	
  Number of	
  Recidivism	
  Events 2 1 1

Most	
  Serious	
  Post-­‐‐ReleaseEvent Assault

(22.2%, n=228)

Drug	
  Trafficking

(16.3%, n=98)

Drug	
  Trafficking

(19.1%, n=83)

Median Age	
  at	
  Release 33 32 32

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
   Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
   cases	
  

from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  Median	
  age	
  at	
  release	
   is	
  shown	
  for	
  recidivist	
  offenders	
  

only.	
  	
  

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within	
  Range

59.4%

(n=1,355)

Above	
  Range

0.3%

(n=6)

Substantial	
  Assistance	
  

(USSG	
  §5K1.1)

33.1%

(n=755)

Other	
  Government	
  

Sponsored	
  Below	
  Range

1.3%

(n=29)

Non-­‐‐Government	
  Sponsored	
  

Below	
  Range

6.0%

(n=138)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.	
  The	
  sentence	
  length	
  analysis	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  

Within Range

61.4%

(n=350)

Above	
  Range

0.4%

(n=2)

Substantial Assistance

(USSG§5K1.1)

26.5%

(n=151)

Other Government

Sponsored Below Range

1.1%

(n=6)

Non-­‐‐Government	
  Sponsored	
  

Below Range

10.7%

(n=61)

Figure 3.5 

Sentences Imposed on Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Table 3.1 

Recidivism Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Up to 6 Months

0.9%

(n=21)

6 to 11 Months

1.1%

(n=24)

12 to 23 Months

7.2%

(n=162)

24 to 59 Months

39.6%

(n=886)

60 to 119 Months

31.7%

(n=709)

120 Months or More

19.5%

(n=435)

Sentence Type Length of Imprisonment

Prison Only

94.5%

(n=2,213)

Prison/Community Split Sentence

1.1%

(n=26)

Probation/Community Confinement

1.5%

(n=34)

Probation Only 

3.0%

(n=69)

Position Relative to the Guideline Range
Chapter Three: 

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

28 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

As the study period progressed, each year saw fewer powder cocaine 

offenders recidivate for the first time. During the first year following release 

into the community, 10.2 percent recidivated for the first time. This rate 

declined to 8.5 percent in the second year and 6.6 percent in the third year. 

Only 2.6 percent of powder cocaine offenders recidivated for the first time in 

the eighth year. This reflects the pattern seen for drug trafficking offenders as a 

whole.

Time to First Recidivism Event

For powder cocaine offenders, median time to recidivism was 29 months, 

with a median of two recidivist events (arrests) on separate days. This means 

that half of those powder cocaine offenders who recidivated first did so between 

two and three years after their release. For all drug trafficking offenders, the 

median time to recidivism was 25 months, with the same median of two events. 

Figure 3.6

Time to First Rearrest of Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. In cases in which any reconviction or reincarceration is known, but the date of arrest leading to 

the reconviction/reincarceration is unknown, the reconviction/reincarceration date is assigned as the rearrest date.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Rearrest, 43.8%

Reconviction, 25.7%

Reincarceration, 18.5%

Median Time to First Arrest:

29 Months

Median Time to First Rearrest:

29 Months
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 29

serious offense types for at least five percent of powder cocaine offenders: 

drug possession (8.8%), larceny (7.2%), and “other drug” offenses (5.0%) (this 

category includes primarily unspecified drug offenses). 

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

Assault was the single most prevalent “most serious” offense for powder 

cocaine offenders (22.2%), as it was among drug trafficking offenders generally. 

After assault, drug trafficking offenses were the most prevalent “most 

serious” post-release event for powder cocaine offenders, at 14.2 percent, with 

“other public order” (12.8%) and DUI/DWI (11.4%) occurring less frequently as 

the most serious event. Three other types of offenses represented the most 

1.0% 1.9% 2.3%

22.2%

1.0%

14.2%

1.9%

7.2%

3.2% 3.2%

8.8%

5.0%

1.1%

11.4% 12.8%

0.0%

3.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Most	
  Serious	
  Recidivism	
  Offense

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 3.7

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense
Chapter Three: 

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

30 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Criminal History 

Recidivism rates for powder cocaine offenders were 

generally associated with total criminal history points. 

Only 30.7 percent of offenders with zero criminal history 

points recidivated within eight years, compared to 67.0 

percent, the highest rate, for offenders with more than 

ten criminal history points.

Recidivism for powder cocaine offenders was clearly 

associated with CHC. Recidivism rates ranged from a 

low of 34.8 percent for those in CHC I to a high of 73.8 

percent for those in CHC VI based on their accumulation 

of criminal history points. Career offenders/armed 

career criminals recidivated at a rate (50.7%) 

approximately equal to that for other powder cocaine 

offenders in CHC II (48.5%). These trends were similar 

to those among all drug trafficking offenders, although 

the rates among powder cocaine offenders were 

generally lower.

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

There was a clear inverse association between a 

powder cocaine offender’s guideline BOL and the rate of 

recidivism. Specifically, powder cocaine offenders with 

BOLs of 24 or less recidivated at the highest rate, 59.0 

percent, while those offenders with BOLs of between 

26 and 30 recidivated less often (44.8%), and those 

with the highest BOLs of between 32 and 42 recidivated 

least of all (36.0%). As noted above with respect to all 

drug traffickers, lower BOLs correspond to somewhat 

younger ages upon release, and younger age is generally 

associated with higher recidivism. This principle likely 

also serves as at least one factor explaining the link 

between recidivism and BOL among powder cocaine 

offenders. 

There was a similar inverse association between the 

length of a drug mandatory minimum penalty and the 

rate of recidivism. Offenders convicted of a drug offense 

30.7%

46.8%

50.7%

46.3%

55.9% 54.3%

59.3%

66.7%

60.9%

54.0%

63.3%

67.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=1,012)

1

(n=312)

2

(n=140)

3

(n=205)

4

(n=136)

5

(n=105)

6

(n=118)

7

(n=57)

8

(n=69)

9

(n=50)

10

(n=30)

More	
  than	
  10

(n=109)

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  

the	
  analysis.	
  

34.8%

48.5%

56.6%

65.8%

60.7%

73.8%

50.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC	
  I	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,321)

CHC	
  II	
  	
  

(n=340)

CHC	
  III	
  	
  

(n=355)

CHC	
  IV	
  	
  	
  

(n=146)

CHC	
  V	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=61)

CHC	
  VI	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=42)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal	
  	
  	
  

(n=69)

Criminal	
  History	
  Category

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  

Figure 3.8

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Points

Figure 3.9 

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Category
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 31

59.0%

44.8%

36.0%

52.3%

44.5%

38.2%

23.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=422)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=948)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=945)

None

(n=622)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=785)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=857)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=26)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application of the	
  mitigating role	
  cap or any adjustments under other guideline	
  provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline	
  provisions without reference	
  to the	
  DQT (e.g., §2D1.1(a)(1), §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=35).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  2,301	
  offenders,	
  two	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  

43.0%

49.5% 49.2%

36.9% 32.2% 36.7%

44.2%

38.9%

44.2% 42.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,051)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=299)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=1,355)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=872)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=416)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=854)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,165)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=185)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  

(n=1,825)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=525)

Safety	
  Valve

(All	
  Offenders)

Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

Safety	
  Valve

(CHC	
  I	
  Offenders)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis. The	
  weapon enhancement analysis includes offenders with a	
  conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) and/or the	
  application of a	
  weapon enhancement under the	
  guidelines. The safety valve	
  analyses account	
  

for	
  safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1991	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  number	
  of	
  

offenders	
  in	
  the	
  CHC	
  I	
  group	
  may	
  not	
  equal	
  the	
  total	
  number	
  of	
  offenders	
  with	
  safety	
  valve	
  applied	
  in	
  the	
  All	
  Offenders	
  group due	
  to	
  missing	
  information	
  on	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  or	
  safety	
  valve	
  application	
  in	
  

cases	
  with	
  higher	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Categories. The	
  aggravating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  

with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  

carrying no mandatory minimum penalty recidivated 

more often than those convicted of a drug offense 

carrying a five-year mandatory minimum penalty 

(52.3% and 44.5%, respectively), those convicted of 

an offense carrying a ten-year mandatory minimum 

penalty recidivated less often still (38.2%), and those 

with a twenty-year mandatory minimum penalty 

recidivated least of all (23.1%). Again, those convicted 

of no drug offense carrying a mandatory minimum 

penalty, or of offenses carrying shorter ones, are 

younger upon release, and therefore at a higher risk of 

recidivism. This relative youth at time of release may 

be at least one factor explaining the link between lower 

mandatory minimum penalties and higher recidivism.

Powder cocaine offenders who received a safety 

valve reduction recidivated at a substantially lower 

rate (36.9% versus 49.2%) than offenders who 

received no reduction, but this drop can be explained 

by the minimal criminal history score necessary to 

benefit from the safety valve. Among CHC I powder 

cocaine offenders, those who received a safety 

valve reduction recidivated in 36.7 percent of cases, 

while those who received no safety valve reduction 

recidivated at an even lower rate (32.2%). Thus, 

for powder cocaine offenders, it appears that the 

reduction in recidivism among offenders receiving the 

safety valve is entirely attributable to the restriction on 

safety valve application to offenders with no more than 

one criminal history point. 

There was a slight association between application 

of a weapon enhancement and recidivism. Powder 

cocaine offenders with a weapon enhancement 

recidivated at a rate of 49.5 percent, compared to 43.0 

percent for those without a weapon enhancement. 

Among drug trafficking offenders as a whole, there was 

no association, with the numbers approximately equal.

Receipt of an aggravating role enhancement had a 

Figure 3.10 

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 3.11 

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Three: 

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

32 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

slight inverse association with recidivism. Powder 

cocaine offenders who received an aggravating role 

adjustment recidivated at a lower rate than those 

who did not receive such an adjustment (38.9% 

versus 44.2%). A similar inverse association existed 

among drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

There was no association between receipt of the 

mitigating role reduction and a lower likelihood 

of recidivism. As with drug trafficking offenders 

as a whole, the recidivism rate among powder 

cocaine offenders who received the mitigating role 

adjustment (42.3%) was nearly the same as for those 

who did not (44.2%). 

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

The relationship between the sentence imposed 

and the sentencing guideline range had little 

or no impact on the recidivism rate of powder 

cocaine offenders. Those who received withinrange sentences, below-range sentences due to 

§5K1.1 substantial assistance motions, and belowrange sentences that were not sponsored by the

government all recidivated at rates of between

42.2 percent (for within-range sentences) and

46.5 percent (for those who received substantial

assistance reductions). There was an insufficient

number of offenders who received other types

of sentences relative to the guidelines to conduct

a meaningful analysis. Similarly, there was no

association between position relative to the guideline

range and recidivism among drug trafficking

offenders as a whole.

There was a weak association between the length 

of a powder cocaine offender’s original federal 

sentence and rate of recidivism, particularly when 

examining sentences of at least one year. The highest 

recidivism rates (54.9%) belong to those sentenced 

to between 12 and 23 months, and the lowest rate 

Figure 3.13

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment

47.6%

41.7%

54.9%

44.4% 42.6% 39.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up	
  to	
  6	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=21)

6	
  to	
  11	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=24)

12	
  to	
  23	
  Months	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=162)

24	
  to	
  59	
  Months	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=886)

60	
  to	
  119	
  Months	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=709)

120	
  Months	
  or	
  More

(n=435)

Length	
  of	
  Federal	
  Imprisonment Sentence	
  Imposed

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  	
  The	
  information	
  in	
  this	
  figure	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
   USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

Figure 3.12 

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Positions Relative to the Guideline Range

42.2%

46.5% 44.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Within Range

(n=1,355)

 Substantial Assistance (§5K1.1 )

(n=755)

Non-Gov't Spons. Below Range

(n=138)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Length of Imprisonment
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 33

were generally associated with lower recidivism. The same is true when the 

analysis is limited to only powder cocaine traffickers. That is, the relationship 

between longer sentences and lower recidivism is generally evident among 

powder cocaine traffickers, although the smaller number of cases makes the 

relationship less prominent.

(39.8%) belongs to those offenders who received the longest sentences of 120 

months or more. This is broadly similar to the recidivism rates found among all 

drug offenders, although the peak for those with 12 to 23 month sentences was 

more pronounced among powder cocaine offenders.

In the analysis of all drug trafficking offenders combined, the association 

between length of imprisonment and rate of recidivism became clearer when it 

was considered in conjunction with Criminal History Category. After accounting 

for the offender’s prior criminal history category, longer sentence lengths

Figure 3.14

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment & Criminal History Category

47.0%

73.3%

52.4%

85.7%

100.0% 100.0%

37.4%

51.0%

57.1%

72.1%

83.3%

71.4%

27.5%

45.2%

60.3% 61.7%

56.3%

76.9%

28.0%

40.6%

48.2%

56.3%

50.0%

71.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI

12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as 

described in USSG §5C1.1. This analysis excludes offenders classified as Career Offenders or Armed Career Criminals. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. See appendix for the number of offenders in each category. 

Criminal History Category
Chapter Three: 

POWDER COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

34 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Age

Recidivism rates among powder cocaine offenders declined as their age 

at sentencing increased. Powder cocaine offenders who were younger than 

21 at sentencing had a 71.1 percent recidivism rate, compared to 6.5 percent 

for powder cocaine offenders who were sentenced after age 60. This trend is 

similar to that among all drug trafficking offenders (69.7% for those under 21 

declining to 13.5% for those over 60).

Age at release was also strongly associated with a lower risk of recidivism. 

Powder cocaine offenders who were under 21 at release had the highest 

recidivism rate, 78.6 percent. Those oldest at release, over 60 years old, had 

the lowest recidivism rate, 13.9 percent. Each age group at release had a lower 

recidivism rate than the next younger one. The steepest declines in recidivism 

rates based on age at release came between the 41-50 and 51-60 age groups. 

Those released when they were between 41 and 50 recidivated at a rate of 38.1 

percent, while those released when they were between 51 and 60 recidivated 

at a rate of 22.4 percent. With minor variations, these findings echo the 

relationship between age and recidivism among all drug trafficking offenders, 

who also saw the steepest drop in recidivism rates by age of release between the 

41-50 and 51-60 age groups (40.3% to 25.9%).

Figure 3.15 

Rearrest Rates for Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Age at Sentencing & Release

Age at Sentencing Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 

71.1%

55.9%

49.1%

38.6% 40.6%

32.7%

20.0%

6.5%

78.6%

63.3%

53.0%

46.1%

41.0% 38.1%

22.4%

13.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 21 21 to 25 years 26 to 30 years 31 to 35 years 36 to 40 years 41 to 50 years 51-60 years Older than 60

n=90 n=14 n=440 n=226 n=576 n=430 n=451 n=527 n=330 n=437 n=306 n=446 n=120 n=192 n=31 n=72
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 35

Chapter Four:

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

This chapter analyzes recidivism among the 2,953 federal crack cocaine trafficking offenders in the 

larger study group of 10,888 drug trafficking offenders. 

Over the eight-year study period, crack cocaine offenders recidivated at a rate of 60.8 percent, as 

compared to 50.0 percent for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. 

Chapter Overview

• Offender & Offense Characteristics

• Sentences Imposed

• Recidivism Findings

Recidivism Rates

Rearrest

60.8%

Reconviction

37.6% Reincarceration

29.4%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

n=1,795

n=1,109

n=868

N=2,953
Chapter Four: 

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

38 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Crack cocaine offenders were generally younger than drug trafficking 

offenders as a whole. The median crack cocaine offender was 27 years old at 

the time of sentencing and 33 years old at the time of release, as compared 

to median ages of 30 years and 34 years for all drug trafficking offenders. 

Offenders aged 21 to 25 represented the largest single age group at the time of 

sentencing (32.5%), while those aged 31 to 35 represented the largest single 

age group at the time of release (27.9%). Very few offenders were over age 60 

at either the time of sentencing (0.4%) or release (1.3%). More offenders were 

under age 21 at the time of sentencing (7.3%), although only 0.3 percent were 

under 21 at the time of release. 

Offender and Offense Characteristics

Demographics

Crack cocaine offenders were more likely to be Black, and less likely to 

be White or Hispanic, than drug trafficking offenders as a whole. A majority 

(87.0%) of crack cocaine offenders were Black, while 7.2 percent were White 

and 5.0 percent were Hispanic. Among all drug trafficking offenders, nearly 

equal numbers were Black (37.2%) and White (34.6%), and 25.5 percent were 

Hispanic. As with all drug trafficking offenders, a majority (88.1%) of crack 

cocaine offenders were male.

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 213 7.2%

Black 2,569 87.0%

Hispanic 147 5.0%

Other 23 0.8%

Gender N %

Male 2,601 88.1%

Female 351 11.9%

Citizenship N %

U.S.	
  Citizens	
   2,953 100.0%

Age

Median	
  Age	
  at	
  Sentencing 27	
  Years

Median	
  Age at	
  Release 33	
  Years

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 4.1 

Demographic Characteristics of Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders Younger than 21

7.3%

(n=215)

Ages 21 to 25

32.5%

(n=959)

Ages 26 to 30

27.9%

(n=823)

Ages 31 to 35

13.1%

(n=386)

Ages 36 to 40

8.2%

(n=243)

Ages 41 to 50

8.0%

(n=236)

Ages 51 to 60

2.6%

(n=77)

Older than 60

0.4%

(n=13)

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21

0.3%

(n=8)

Ages 21 to 25

9.5%

(n=279)

Ages 26 to 30

26.0%

(n=768)

Ages 31 to 35

27.9%

(n=823)

Ages 36 to 40

16.1%

(n=474)

Ages 41 to 50

14.0%

(n=412)

Ages 51 to 60

5.1%

(n=150)

Older than 60

1.3%

(n=38)

Age at Release
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 39

Offense Characteristics

Crack cocaine offender BOLs were notably higher 

than for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The 

majority of crack cocaine offenders (56.4%) had BOLs 

of between 32 and 42, with another third (33.5%) 

having BOLs of between 26 and 30, and the remainder 

(10.2%) BOLs of 24 or less.57 Drug offenders overall 

received a BOL of 32 to 42 only 37.2 percent of the 

time. 

Similarly, crack cocaine offenders were convicted of 

offenses carrying a drug mandatory minimum penalty 

more frequently than drug trafficking offenders 

generally. More than three-quarters (78.2%) of crack 

cocaine offenders were convicted of such an offense; 

in nearly all those cases the applicable mandatory 

minimum was either five or ten years. A smaller 

majority (62.5%) of all drug trafficking offenders were 

convicted of an offense carrying a drug mandatory 

minimum penalty.

 Crack cocaine offenders received safety valve relief 

less often than did all drug trafficking offenders. Only 

about one-fifth (20.5%) of crack cocaine offenders 

received a safety valve reduction at their original 

sentencing, while over a third (34.9%) of all drug 

trafficking offenders received such a reduction.

Crack cocaine offenders were more likely to receive 

a weapon enhancement, and less likely to receive 

either aggravating or mitigating role adjustments, 

than drug trafficking offenders as a whole. Just under 

one-fifth (19.7%) of crack cocaine offenders received a 

weapon enhancement. Smaller numbers received role 

adjustments, with 4.4 percent receiving an aggravating 

role adjustment and 8.7 percent receiving a mitigating 

role adjustment. Among all drug trafficking offenders, 

fewer received a weapon enhancement (14.3%), while 

greater numbers received either an aggravating role 

(6.2%) or mitigating role (19.3%) adjustment.

Figure 4.2 

Application Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 4.3

Application Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics

10.2%

33.5%

56.4%

21.8%

0.9%

30.0%

45.2%

1.9% 0.2% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL 6-24

(n=298)

BOL 26-30

(n=981)

BOL 32-42

(n=1,654)

None

(n=635)

12 Months

(n=26)

60 Months

(n=871)

120 Months

(n=1,314)

240 Months

(n=56)

Life

(n=5)

Base Offense Level Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. Base Offense Level values reflect the BOL from the Drug Quantity Table (DQT) at USSG §2D1.1 prior to the 

application of the mitigating role cap or any adjustments under other guideline provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline provisions without reference to the DQT (e.g., §2D1.1(a)(1), §2D1.2(a)(3)) 

and offenders missing information required to determine the BOL prior to the application of the mitigating role cap were excluded from the base offense level analysis (n=20). Information on drug statutory 

mandatory minimum penalties is unavailable in fiscal year 1992 and offenders sentenced in that year were excluded from the drug mandatory minimum analysis. Of the remaining 2,912 offenders, five were 

excluded from this analysis due to missing or unusual drug statutory mandatory minimum penalty information. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

80.3%

19.7%

79.5%

20.5%

95.6%

4.4%

91.3%

8.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither

(n=2,372)

SOC/924(c)

(n=581)

No Safety Valve

(n=2,193)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=567)

No Adjustment

(n=2,822)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=131)

No Adjustment

(n=2,697)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=256)

Safety Valve Mitigating Role 

Adjustment

Weapon 

Enhancement

Aggravating Role

Adjustment

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from each analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. The weapon enhancement analysis includes offenders with a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) and/or the application of a weapon enhancement under the guidelines. The safety valve analysis accounts 

for safety valve relief under USSG §§5C1.2 and 2D1.1. Safety valve did not exist prior to fiscal year 1995 and the safety valve analysis excludes offenders sentenced in fiscal years 1992 through 1994. The aggravating 

role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any positive value under USSG §3B1.1. The mitigating role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any negative value under USSG §3B1.2. In addition, offenders 

sentenced under USSG §2D1.8(a)(2) are included as receiving mitigating role. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
Chapter Four: 

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

40 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Sentences Originally Imposed

Crack cocaine offenders typically received longer prison sentences than the 

overall drug trafficking group. An overwhelming majority (98.2%) of crack 

cocaine offenders were sentenced to some term of incarceration. Of those who 

were, about one-third (33.2%) received sentences of 120 months or more; 40.5 

percent received sentences of between 60 and 119 months; and the remaining 

26.3 percent received sentences of less than 60 months. While most drug 

trafficking offenders were also imprisoned for some length of time, only 19.0 

percent received a sentence of 120 months or more, and nearly half (49.8%) 

received a sentence of under 60 months.

Criminal History

Crack cocaine offenders typically had more serious criminal histories than 

drug trafficking offenders as a whole. They were nonetheless spread broadly 

across the criminal history spectrum, with 20.4 percent receiving no criminal 

history points, 12.0 percent receiving one point, and 11.9 percent receiving 

more than ten points. The largest single proportion of crack cocaine offenders 

(32.5%) were in CHC I, followed by 23.1 percent in CHC III and 15.1 percent in 

CHC II. In addition to the 5.8 percent of offenders who were classified in CHC VI 

based on their number of criminal history points, an additional 5.1 percent were 

designated as career offenders or armed career criminals. By contrast, over 

one-third (36.5%) of all drug trafficking offenders had zero criminal history 

points, and over half (50.3%) were in CHC I. 

Figure 4.4 

Criminal History Scores of Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

20.4%

12.0%

6.5% 8.8% 8.0% 6.7% 9.2%

4.0% 4.7% 4.7% 3.2%

11.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=602)

1

(n=352)

2

(n=192)

3

(n=258)

4

(n=236)

5

(n=196)

6

(n=271)

7

(n=118)

8

(n=139)

9

(n=138)

10

(n=94)

More than

10

(n=350)

CHC I

32.5%

(n=953)

CHC II

15.1%

(n=443)

CHC III

23.1%

(n=675)

CHC IV

11.9%

(n=349)

CHC V

6.5%

(n=190)

CHC VI

5.8%

(n=170)

Career Offender/ 

Armed Career Criminal

5.1%

(n=149)

Criminal History Category

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. Criminal History Points may not sum to the expected Criminal History Category due to career offender/armed career criminal classification or missing information. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to 

rounding.
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 41

As explained above, recidivism throughout this study was primarily reported 

by rearrest data; however, analysis also showed that crack cocaine offenders 

were reconvicted of another offense at a rate of 37.6 percent, and reincarcerated 

at a rate of 29.4 percent. This compares with a reconviction rate of 30.8 percent 

and a reincarceration rate of 23.4 percent for all drug offenders. The Appendix 

contains more detailed information using these two measures of recidivism.

A majority of crack cocaine offenders (57.1%) received a sentence that was 

within their sentencing guideline range. Over one-third (35.9%) received 

below-range sentences due to a departure granted for providing substantial 

assistance to the government. Another 6.5 percent received below-range 

sentences that were not requested by the government. Small numbers received 

below-range sentences that were requested by the government for some reason 

other than providing substantial assistance (0.3%), or received above-range 

sentences (0.2%). These numbers are similar to those for drug trafficking 

offenders as a whole.

Recidivism Findings 

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration

Crack cocaine offenders had the highest rate of recidivism (60.8%, or 1,795 of 

the 2,953 total crack cocaine offenders) of any drug type measured in the study. 

The recidivism rate for all drug trafficking offenders combined was 50.0 percent. 

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.	
  The	
  sentence	
  length	
  analysis	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  

Figure 4.5 

Sentences Imposed on Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Table 4.1

Recidivism Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Up to 6 Months

0.1%

(n=4)

6 to 11 Months

0.1%

(n=3) 12 to 23 Months

3.2%

(n=92)

24 to 59 Months

22.9%

(n=663)

60 to 119 Months

40.5%

(n=1,173)

120 Months or More

33.2%

(n=960)

Sentence Type Length of Imprisonment

Prison Only

97.9%

(n=2,885)

Prison/Community Split Sentence

0.3%

(n=10)

Probation/Community Confinement

0.3%

(n=10)

Probation Only

1.4%

(n=41)

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range

57.1%

(n=1,645)

Above Range

0.2%

(n=5)

Substantial Assistance 

(USSG §5K1.1)

35.9%

(n=1,034)

Other Government 

Sponsored Below Range

0.3%

(n=8)

Non-Government Sponsored 

Below Range

6.5%

(n=187)

Recidivism Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 60.8% 37.6% 29.4%

Median Time to Recidivism 23 Months 32 Months 32 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(27.4%, n=492)

Drug Trafficking

(20.7%, n=230)

Drug Trafficking

(23.7%, n=206)

Median Age at Release 32 31 31

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases 

from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Median age at release is shown for recidivist offenders 

only. 
Chapter Four: 

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

42 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

As the study period progressed, each year saw fewer crack cocaine offenders 

recidivate for the first time. During the first year following release into the 

community, 17.5 percent recidivated for the first time. The rate declined to 13.8 

percent in the second year and 8.7 percent in the third year. Only 2.4 percent 

of crack cocaine offenders recidivated for the first time in the eighth year. This 

reflects the pattern seen for drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

Time to First Recidivism Event

For crack cocaine offenders, median time to recidivism was 23 months, with 

a median of two recidivist events (arrests) on separate days. This means that 

half of those crack cocaine offenders who recidivated first did so less than two 

years after their release. For all drug trafficking offenders, the median time to 

recidivism was 25 months, with the same median of two events. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. In cases in which any reconviction or reincarceration is known, but the date of arrest leading to the 

reconviction/reincarceration is unknown, the reconviction/reincarceration date is assigned as the rearrest date.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Rearrest, 60.8%

Reconviction, 37.6%

Reincarceration, 29.4%

Median Time to First Rearrest:

23 Months

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year After Release 518 17.5% 17.5%

Two Years After Release 408 13.8% 31.3%

Three Years After Release 257 8.7% 40.0%

Four Years After Release 180 6.1% 46.1%

Five Years After Release 149 5.1% 51.2%

Six Years After Release 111 3.8% 55.0%

Seven Years After Release 100 3.4% 58.4%

Eight Years After Release 72 2.4% 60.8%

Figure 4.6

Time to First Rearrest of Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 43

frequently as the most serious event. Two other types of offenses represented 

the most serious offense types for at least five percent of crack cocaine 

offenders: “other public order” offenses (12.4%) and DUI/DWI offenses (6.1%). 

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

Assault was the single most prevalent “most serious” recidivist offense for 

crack cocaine offenders (27.4%), as it was among drug trafficking offenders 

generally. 

After assault, drug trafficking offenses were the most prevalent “most 

serious” post-release event for crack cocaine offenders, at 17.6 percent, with 

drug possession (7.9%) and “other drug” offenses (4.1%) occurring less 

Figure 4.7 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense

1.8% 1.6% 3.5%

27.4%

1.1%

17.6%

1.7%

4.8% 3.2% 3.0%

7.9%

4.1% 1.3%

6.1%

12.4%

0.2% 2.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
Chapter Four: 

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

44 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Criminal History 

Recidivism rates for crack cocaine offenders were 

associated with total criminal history points. Among 

crack cocaine offenders, 42.7 percent of offenders with 

zero criminal history points recidivated within eight 

years, compared to 81.7 percent of offenders with more 

than ten criminal history points. Each additional criminal 

history point was generally associated with a higher 

rate of recidivism. For example, recidivism plateaued at 

approximately 59 percent for those with between two 

and four criminal history points before increasing to 65.3 

percent for those with five points. Recidivism generally 

continued to rise as offenders accumulated six (65.7%) 

to ten (73.4%) criminal history points, with recidivism 

highest among those who received seven points (76.3%) 

and more than ten points (81.7%).

Recidivism for crack cocaine offenders was also strongly 

associated with CHC. Recidivism rates ranged from a 

low of 46.1 percent for those in CHC I to a high of 84.1 

percent for those in CHC VI based on their accumulation 

of criminal history points. Career offenders and armed 

career criminals recidivated at a higher rate (68.5%) than 

crack cocaine offenders as a whole, but at a lower rate than 

offenders classified in CHC IV (73.9%), CHC V (76.3%), 

or CHC VI based on criminal history points. These trends 

are similar to those among all drug trafficking offenders, 

although the rates among crack cocaine offenders are 

higher.

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

There was an inverse association between a crack 

cocaine offender’s guideline BOL and the rate of recidivism, 

although a somewhat less pronounced one than among all 

drug offenders. Specifically, crack cocaine offenders with 

BOLs of 24 or less recidivated at slightly higher rates than 

those with BOLs between 26 and 30 (70.8% and 67.9%, 

respectively), while those offenders with the highest BOLs 

of between 32 and 42 recidivated less often (54.8%). As 

Figure 4.8 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Points

Figure 4.9 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Category

42.7%

51.7%

58.9% 59.7% 58.9%

65.3% 65.7%

76.3%

66.9%

73.9% 73.4%

81.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=602)

1

(n=352)

2

(n=192)

3

(n=258)

4

(n=236)

5

(n=196)

6

(n=271)

7

(n=118)

8

(n=139)

9

(n=138)

10

(n=94)

More than 10

(n=350)

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 

46.1%

60.1% 63.3%

73.9% 76.3%

84.1%

68.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I

(n=953)

CHC II

(n=443)

CHC III

(n=675)

CHC IV

(n=349)

CHC V

(n=190)

CHC VI

(n=170)

Career Offender/

Armed Career Criminal

(n=149)

Criminal History Category

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 45

noted above with respect to all drug traffickers, lower BOLs 

correspond to somewhat younger ages upon release, and 

younger age is generally associated with higher recidivism. 

This principle likely also serves as at least one factor 

explaining the link between recidivism and BOL among 

crack cocaine offenders. 

There was a similar limited inverse association 

between the mandatory minimum penalty and the rate of 

recidivism. Offenders convicted of a drug offense carrying 

no mandatory minimum penalty recidivated at almost the 

same rate as those convicted of a drug offense carrying a 

five-year mandatory minimum penalty (65.2% and 65.8%, 

respectively), while those convicted of an offense carrying a 

ten-year mandatory minimum drug penalty recidivated less 

often (55.5%). Again, those convicted of no drug offense 

carrying a mandatory minimum penalty, or of drug offenses 

carrying shorter ones, are younger upon release, and 

therefore at a higher risk of recidivism. This relative youth 

at time of release may be at least one factor explaining the 

link between lower mandatory minimum penalties and 

higher recidivism.

Crack cocaine offenders who received a safety valve 

reduction recidivated at a substantially lower rate (49.0% 

versus 64.7%) than offenders who received no reduction, 

but this drop can be explained by the minimal criminal 

history score necessary to benefit from the safety valve. 

Among CHC I crack cocaine offenders, those who received 

a safety valve reduction recidivated in 48.4 percent of 

cases, while those who received no safety valve reduction 

recidivated at an even lower rate (45.4%). Thus, for 

crack cocaine offenders, it appears that the reduction in 

recidivism among offenders receiving the safety valve 

is entirely attributable to the restriction on safety valve 

application to offenders with no more than one criminal 

history point. 

There was little association between application of 

a weapon enhancement and recidivism. Crack cocaine 

Figure 4.10 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 4.11 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics

70.8% 67.9%

54.8%

65.2% 65.8%

55.5% 58.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL 6-24

(n=298)

BOL 26-30

(n=981)

BOL 32-42

(n=1,654)

None

(n=635)

60 Months

(n=871)

120 Months

(n=1,314)

240 Months

(n=56)

Base Offense Level Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. Base Offense Level values reflect the BOL from the Drug Quantity Table (DQT) at USSG §2D1.1 prior to the 

application of the mitigating role cap or any adjustments under other guideline provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline provisions without reference to the DQT (e.g., §2D1.1(a)(1), §2D1.2(a)(3)) 

and offenders missing information required to determine the BOL prior to the application of the mitigating role cap were excluded from the base offense level analysis (n=20). Information on drug statutory 

mandatory minimum penalties is unavailable in fiscal year 1992 and offenders sentenced in that year were excluded from the drug mandatory minimum analysis. Of the remaining 2,912 offenders, five were 

excluded from this analysis due to missing or unusual drug statutory mandatory minimum penalty information. 

61.5% 58.0%

64.7%

49.0% 45.4% 48.4%

61.5%

45.8%

61.3%

55.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither

(n=2,372)

SOC/924(c)

(n=581)

No Safety

Valve

(n=2,193)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=567)

No Safety

Valve

(n=348)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=544)

No

Adjustment

(n=2,822)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=131)

No

Adjustment

(n=2,697)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=256)

Safety Valve

(All Offenders)

Mitigating Role 

Adjustment

Weapon 

Enhancement

Aggravating Role

Adjustment

Safety Valve

(CHC I Offenders)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from each analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. The weapon enhancement analysis includes offenders with a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) and/or the application of a weapon enhancement under the guidelines. The safety valve analyses account 

for safety valve relief under USSG §§5C1.2 and 2D1.1. Safety valve did not exist prior to fiscal year 1995 and the safety valve analyses excludes offenders sentenced in fiscal years 1991 through 1994. The number of 

offenders in the CHC I group may not equal the total number of offenders with safety valve applied in the All Offenders group due to missing information on Criminal History Category or safety valve application in 

cases with higher Criminal History Categories. The aggravating role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any positive value under USSG §3B1.1. The mitigating role adjustment analysis includes offenders 

with any negative value under USSG §3B1.2. In addition, offenders sentenced under USSG §2D1.8(a)(2) are included as receiving mitigating role. 
Chapter Four: 

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

46 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

offenders with a weapon enhancement recidivated at a 

rate of 58.0 percent, compared to 61.5 percent for all other 

offenders. Among drug trafficking offenders as a whole, 

there was an even smaller association, with the numbers 

approximately equal.

Receipt of an aggravating role enhancement was 

inversely correlated with recidivism. Crack cocaine 

offenders who received an aggravating role adjustment 

recidivated at a lower rate than those who did not receive 

such an adjustment (45.8% versus 61.5%). A similar 

inverse association existed among drug trafficking 

offenders as a whole.

There was a mild association between receipt of 

the mitigating role reduction and a lower likelihood of 

recidivism. Crack cocaine offenders receiving a mitigating 

role adjustment had a slightly lower recidivism rate than 

those offenders who did not receive such an adjustment 

(55.5% versus 61.3%). This was a stronger association 

than among drug trafficking offenders as a whole, for 

whom the rates were nearly equal in both groups.

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

The relationship between the sentence imposed and 

the sentencing guideline range had little or no impact 

on the recidivism rate. Offenders who received withinrange sentences, below-range sentences due to §5K1.1 

substantial assistance motions, and below-range sentences 

that were not sponsored by the government all recidivated 

at rates of approximately 60 percent. There was an 

insufficient number of offenders who received other 

types of sentences relative to the guidelines to conduct a 

meaningful analysis. While the recidivism rate was about 

ten percentage points lower among all drug trafficking 

offenders, there was also no association between position 

of the sentence relative to the guideline range and 

recidivism in that group.

There was also no apparent association between 

25.0%

33.3%

62.0% 60.5%

65.7%

56.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up	
  to	
  6	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=4)

6	
  to	
  11	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=3)

12	
  to	
  23	
  Months	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=92)

24	
  to	
  59	
  Months	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=663)

60	
  to	
  119	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,173)

120	
  Months	
  or	
  More

(n=960)

Length	
  of	
  Federal	
  Imprisonment	
  Sentence	
  Imposed

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  	
  The	
  information	
  in	
  this	
  figure	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
  

USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

Figure 4.13

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment

60.1% 61.4% 60.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Within Range

(n=1,645)

 Substantial Assistance (§5K1.1 )

(n=1,034)

Non-Gov't Spons. Below Range

(n=187)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary 

to perform the analysis. 

Figure 4.12 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Positions Relative to the Guideline Range

Length of Imprisonment
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 47

the length of a crack cocaine offender’s original federal sentence and rate of 

recidivism. Each group of offenders that was sentenced to at least 12 months 

in prison recidivated at a rate of between 56.2 percent and 65.7 percent, with 

the lowest rate belonging to those offenders who received the longest sentences 

of 120 months or more. This largely parallels, at higher recidivism levels, the 

pattern for all drug trafficking offenders.

Figure 4.14 

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment & Criminal History Category

 In the analysis of all drug trafficking offenders combined, the association 

between length of imprisonment and rate of recidivism became clearer when it 

was considered in conjunction with Criminal History Category. After accounting 

for the offender’s prior criminal history category, longer sentence lengths were 

generally associated with lower recidivism. The same is true when the analysis 

is limited to only crack cocaine traffickers. That is, a relationship between 

longer sentences and lower recidivism is generally evident among crack cocaine 

traffickers, although the smaller number of cases makes the relationship less 

prominent. 

46.3%

72.2% 75.0% 77.8%

50.0%

100.0%

50.0%

67.4% 66.7%

74.6% 73.3%

85.2%

47.7%

66.2% 67.4%

79.5% 82.2%

90.1%

39.5%

45.3%

55.5%

66.7%

72.8%

77.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI

12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as 

described in USSG §5C1.1. This analysis excludes offenders classified as Career Offenders or Armed Career Criminals. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. See appendix for the number of offenders in each category. 

Criminal History Category
Chapter Four: 

CRACK COCAINE TRAFFICKERS

48 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Figure 4.15

Rearrest Rates for Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders by Age at Sentencing & Release

Recidivism and Age

Recidivism rates among crack cocaine offenders declined as their age at 

sentencing increased. Crack cocaine offenders who were younger than 21 at 

sentencing had a 76.7 percent recidivism rate, compared to 15.4 percent for 

crack cocaine offenders who were sentenced after age 60. These rates are 

similar to those for all drug trafficking offenses (69.7% declining to 13.5%).

Age at release was also strongly associated with a lower risk of recidivism. 

Crack cocaine offenders who were between 21 and 25 at release had the highest 

recidivism rate, 81.0 percent. Those oldest at release, over 60 years old, had the 

lowest recidivism rate, 15.8 percent. Excluding the small number of offenders 

released before they were 21, each age group had a lower recidivism rate than 

the next younger one. The steepest declines in recidivism rates based on age at 

release came between the 41 to 50 and 51 to 60 age groups. Those 

released when they were between 41 and 50 recidivated at a rate of 52.4 

percent, while those released when they were between 51 and 60 recidivated 

at a rate of 30.7 percent. With minor variations, these findings echo the 

relationship between age and recidivism among all drug trafficking offenders, 

which also saw the steepest drop in recidivism rates by age of release between 

the 41-50 and 51-60 age groups (40.3% to 25.9%).

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Age at Sentencing Age at Release

76.7%

69.6%

60.0%

54.9% 55.6%

44.1%

20.8%

15.4%

62.5%

81.0%

68.4%

62.5%

54.2% 52.4%

30.7%

15.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 21 21 to 25 years 26 to 30 years 31 to 35 years 36 to 40 years 41 to 50 years 51-60 years Older than 60

n=215 n=8 n=959 n=279 n=823 n=768 n=386 n=823 n=243 n=474 n=236 n=412 n=77 n=150 n=13 n=38
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 49

Chapter Five:

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

This chapter analyzes recidivism among the 590 federal heroin trafficking offenders in the larger study 

group of 10,888 drug trafficking offenders. 

Over the eight-year study period, heroin offenders recidivated at a rate of 47.1 percent, as compared 

to 50.0 percent for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. 

Chapter Overview

• Offender & Offense Characteristics

• Sentences Imposed

• Recidivism Findings

Recidivism Rates

Rearrest

47.1%

Reconviction

29.3% Reincarceration

21.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

n-=278

n=173

n=124

N=590
Chapter Five: 

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

52 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Heroin offenders were, generally, slightly older at sentencing and release 

than drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The median heroin offender was 

31 years old at the time of sentencing and 35 years old at the time of release, 

as compared to median ages of 30 and 34 for all drug trafficking offenders. 

Offenders aged 26 to 30 represented the largest single age group at the time of 

sentencing (22.1%), while those aged 41 to 50 represented the largest single 

age group at the time of release (20.7%). Very few offenders were over age 60 

at either the time of sentencing (1.5%) or release (3.2%). More offenders were 

under age 21 at the time of sentencing (4.6%), although only 0.5 percent were 

under 21 at the time of release. 

Offender and Offense Characteristics

Demographics

Compared to drug trafficking offenders as a whole, heroin offenders were 

more likely to be Hispanic and less likely to be White or Black. Heroin offenders 

were more frequently Hispanic (46.0%) than for any other drug type, while 33.6 

percent were Black, 19.2 percent were White, and 1.2 percent were of another 

race. Among all drug trafficking offenders, nearly equal numbers were Black 

(37.2%) and White (34.6%), and 25.5 percent were Hispanic. As with all drug 

trafficking offenders, a majority (80.5%) of heroin offenders were male.

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 113 19.2%

Black 198 33.6%

Hispanic 271 46.0%

Other 7 1.2%

Gender N %

Male 475 80.5%

Female 115 19.5%

Citizenship N %

U.S.	
  Citizens	
   590 100.0%

Age

Median	
  Age	
  at	
  Sentencing 31	
  Years

Median	
  Age at	
  Release 35	
  Years

Younger	
  than	
  21

4.6%

(n=27)

Ages	
  21	
  to	
  25

21.2%

(n=125)

Ages	
  26	
  to	
  30

22.1%

(n=130) Ages	
  31	
  to	
  35

14.1%

(n=83)

Ages	
  36	
  to	
  40

13.2%

(n=78)

Ages	
  41	
  to	
  50

16.8%

(n=99)

Ages	
  51	
  to	
  60

6.5%

(n=38)

Older	
  than	
  60

1.5%

(n=9)

Age	
  at	
  Sentencing

Younger	
  than	
  21

0.5%

(n=3) Ages	
  21	
  to	
  25

14.6%

(n=86)

Ages	
  26	
  to	
  30

18.3%

(n=108)

Ages	
  31	
  to	
  35

18.3%

(n=108)

Ages	
  36	
  to	
  40

14.3%

(n=84)

Ages	
  41	
  to	
  50

20.7%

(n=122)

Ages	
  51	
  to	
  60

10.0%

(n=59)

Older	
  than	
  60

3.2%

(n=19)

Figure 5.1 Age	
  at	
  Release

Demographic Characteristics of Heroin Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 53

Offense Characteristics 

Heroin offender BOLs peaked between 26 and 30 

(41.8% fell into this group). Just over a quarter (26.2%) 

had a BOL of between 6 and 24, while 32.0 percent 

had a BOL of between 32 and 42.58 This is a different 

distribution of BOLs than for all drug offenders, for 

whom the top two groups were nearly equal at about 37 

percent.

Heroin offenders were convicted of drug offenses 

carrying a mandatory minimum penalty at almost exactly 

the same rate as drug trafficking offenders generally. 

Just over three-fifths (60.1%) of heroin offenders were 

convicted of such an offense, and in nearly all those cases 

the applicable mandatory minimum was either five or 

ten years. Among all drug trafficking offenders, the rate 

was 62.5 percent. 

 Heroin offenders received safety valve relief more 

often than did drug trafficking offenders overall. Almost 

two-fifths (39.7%) of heroin offenders received a safety 

valve reduction at their original sentencing, compared to 

34.9 percent of all drug trafficking offenders.

Heroin offenders were slightly less likely than all drug 

offenders to receive a weapon enhancement (11.4% 

versus 14.3%). They were slightly more likely to receive 

an aggravating role adjustment (7.1% versus 6.2%), 

and substantially more likely to receive a mitigating role 

adjustment (29.7% versus 19.3%). Heroin offenders 

received the mitigating role adjustment more often than 

any other group of offenders by drug type.

Figure 5.3

Application Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics

26.2%

41.8%

32.0%

39.9%

0.5%

31.7%

26.4%

1.0% 0.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=150)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=239)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=183)

None

(n=233)

12	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=3)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=185)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=154)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=6)

Life	
  	
  	
  

(n=3)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  or	
  any	
  adjustments	
  under	
  other	
  guideline	
  provisions.	
  Offenders	
  with	
  BOLs	
  determined	
  by guideline	
  provisions	
  without	
  reference	
  to	
  the	
  DQT	
  (e.g.,	
  §2D1.1(a)(1),	
  §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=18).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  585	
  offenders,	
  one	
  was	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 5.2

Application Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

88.6%

11.4%

60.3%

39.7%

92.9%

7.1%

70.3%

29.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither

(n=523)

SOC/924(c)

(n=67)

No Safety Valve

(n=340)

Safety Valve

Applied

(n=224)

No Adjustment

(n=548)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=42)

No Adjustment

(n=415)

Adjustment

Applied

(n=175)

Safety Valve Mitigating Role 

Adjustment

Weapon 

Enhancement

Aggravating Role

Adjustment

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from each analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. The weapon enhancement analysis includes offenders with a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) and/or the application of a weapon enhancement under the guidelines. The safety valve analysis accounts 

for safety valve relief under USSG §§5C1.2 and 2D1.1. Safety valve did not exist prior to fiscal year 1995 and the safety valve analysis excludes offenders sentenced in fiscal years 1992 through 1994. The aggravating 

role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any positive value under USSG §3B1.1. The mitigating role adjustment analysis includes offenders with any negative value under USSG §3B1.2. In addition, offenders 

sentenced under USSG §2D1.8(a)(2) are included as receiving mitigating role. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
Chapter Five: 

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

54 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

offenders had zero criminal history points, and a bare majority (50.3%) were 

in CHC I. Smaller proportions of all drug offenders than heroin offenders had 

more than ten points (7.3%), fell into CHC VI (3.5%), or were career offenders/

armed career criminals (3.2%). 

Sentences Originally Imposed

Heroin offenders typically received prison sentences similar to, or slightly 

more lenient than, those of the overall drug trafficking group. An overwhelming 

majority (92.3%) of heroin offenders were sentenced to some term of 

incarceration. Of those who were, 14.9 percent received sentences of 120 

months or more; 30.3 percent received sentences of 60 to 119 months; and the 

remaining 54.8 percent received sentences of less than 60 months. Similarly, 

most drug trafficking offenders were also imprisoned for some length of time, 

Criminal History

Although heroin offenders had criminal histories that were generally similar 

to those of drug trafficking offenders as a whole, they were overrepresented at 

the high end of the criminal history scale. The largest single proportion (42.9%) 

received no criminal history points, while 10.4 percent received one point and 

11.6 percent received more than ten points. The majority of heroin offenders 

(53.6%) were in CHC I, followed by 12.0 percent in CHC II and 11.6 percent in 

CHC III. In addition to the 5.3 percent of offenders who were classified in CHC 

VI based on their number of criminal history points, an additional 6.1 percent 

were designated as career offenders or armed career criminals (this was the 

highest proportion of career offenders/armed career criminals of any drug type 

studied). By comparison, just over one-third (36.5%) of all drug trafficking 

42.9%

10.4%

4.9% 7.3% 4.1% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% 1.7%

11.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=252)

1	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=61)

2	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=29)

3	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=43)

4	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=24)

5	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=27)

6	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=21)

7	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=16)

8	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=18)

9	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=18)

10	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=10)

More	
  than	
  

10	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=68)

Criminal	
  History	
  Category

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

CHC	
  I

53.6%

(n=314)

CHC	
  II

12.0%

(n=70)

CHC	
  III

11.6%

(n=68)

CHC	
  IV

7.9%

(n=46)

CHC	
  V

3.6%

(n=21)

CHC	
  VI

5.3%

(n=31)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal

6.1%

(n=36)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Points	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  the	
  expected	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  due	
  to	
  career	
  offender/armed	
  career	
  criminal	
  classification	
  or	
  missing	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  

rounding.

Figure 5.4

Criminal History Scores of Heroin Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 55

As explained above, recidivism throughout this study was primarily reported 

by rearrest data; however, analysis also showed that heroin offenders were 

reconvicted of another offense at a rate of 29.3 percent, and reincarcerated at 

a rate of 21.0 percent. This compares with a reconviction rate of 30.8 percent 

and a reincarceration rate of 23.4 percent for all drug offenders. The Appendix 

contains more detailed information using these two measures of recidivism.

with 19.0 percent receiving a sentence of 120 months or more, and just under 

half (49.8%) receiving a sentence of under 60 months.

A majority of heroin offenders (61.4%) received a sentence that was within 

their sentencing guideline range. Over one-quarter (26.5%) received belowrange sentences due to a departure granted for providing substantial assistance 

to the government. Another 10.7 percent received below-range sentences that 

were not requested by the government. Small numbers received below-range 

sentences that were requested by the government for some reason other than 

providing substantial assistance (1.1%), or received above-range sentences 

(0.4%). These numbers are similar to those for drug trafficking offenders as a 

whole.

Recidivism Findings 

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration

Heroin offenders had a slightly lower rate of recidivism (47.1%, or 278 of the 

590 total heroin offenders) than the 50.0 percent rate for drug traffickers as a 

group.

Recidivism	
  	
  Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 47.1% 29.3% 21.0%

Median	
  Time	
  to	
  Recidivism 28	
  Months 35	
  Months 31	
  Months

Median	
  Number of	
  Recidivism	
  Events 2 1 1

Most	
  Serious	
  Post-­‐‐ReleaseEvent Drug	
  Trafficking

(18.0%, n=50)

Drug	
  Trafficking

(22.0%, n=38)

Drug	
  Trafficking

(29.0%, n=36)

Median Age	
  at	
  Release 33 33 35

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
   Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
   cases	
  

from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  Median	
  age	
  at	
  release	
   is	
  shown	
  for	
  recidivist	
  offenders	
  

only.	
  	
  

Position	
  Relative	
  to	
  the	
  Guideline	
  Range

Within	
  Range

61.4%

(n=350)

Above	
  Range

0.4%

(n=2)

Substantial	
  Assistance	
  

(USSG	
  §5K1.1)

26.5%

(n=151)

Other	
  Government	
  

Sponsored	
  Below	
  Range

1.1%

(n=6)

Non-­‐‐Government	
  Sponsored	
  

Below	
  Range

10.7%

(n=61)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.	
  The	
  sentence	
  length	
  analysis	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  

Figure 5.5 

Sentences Imposed on Heroin Trafficking Offenders

Table 5.1

Recidivism Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders

Up to 6 Months

1.7%

(n=9)

6 to 11 Months

2.0%

(n=11)

12 to 23 Months

9.2%

(n=50)

24 to 59 Months

41.9%

(n=228)

60 to 119 Months

30.3%

(n=165)

120 Months or More

14.9%

(n=81)

Sentence Type Length of Imprisonment

Prison Only

90.8%

(n=535)

Prison/Community Split Sentence

1.5%

(n=9)

Probation/Community Confinement

1.9%

(n=11)

Probation Only

5.8%

(n=34)
Chapter Five: 

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

56 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Time to First Recidivism Event

For heroin offenders, median time to recidivism was 28 months, with a 

median of two recidivist events (arrests) on separate days. This means that half 

of those heroin offenders who recidivated first did so between two and three 

years after their release. For all drug trafficking offenders, the median time to 

recidivism was 25 months, with the same median of two events. 

Figure 5.6

Time to First Rearrest of Heroin Trafficking Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. In cases in which any reconviction or reincarceration is known, but the date of arrest leading to 

the reconviction/reincarceration is unknown, the reconviction/reincarceration date is assigned as the rearrest date.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Rearrest, 47.1%

Reconviction, 29.3%

Reincarceration, 21.0%

Median Time to First Rearrest:

28 Months

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year After Release 80 13.6% 13.6%

Two Years After Release 49 8.3% 21.9%

Three Years After Release 35 5.9% 27.8%

Four Years After Release 36 6.1% 33.9%

Five Years After Release 26 4.4% 38.3%

Six Years After Release 22 3.7% 42.0%

Seven Years After Release 14 2.4% 44.4%

Eight Years After Release 16 2.7% 47.1%

As the study period progressed, almost every year saw fewer heroin 

offenders recidivate for the first time. During the first year following release 

into the community, 13.6 percent recidivated for the first time. This rate 

declined to 8.3 percent in the second year and 5.9 percent in the third year. Only 

2.7 percent of heroin offenders recidivated for the first time in the eighth year. 

This reflects the pattern seen for drug trafficking offenders as a whole.
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 57

After drug trafficking offenses, “other public order” offenses were the most 

prevalent most serious recidivist offense for heroin offenders, at 16.2 percent, 

with assault (15.1%) and larceny (11.2%) occurring next most frequently. Other 

offenses that were the most serious offense for at least five percent of heroin 

offenders were drug possession (6.8%), DUI/DWI (6.8%), and “unspecified” 

offenses, at 5.4 percent.

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

Drug trafficking was the single most prevalent “most serious” recidivist 

offense for heroin offenders (18.0%). This distinguishes heroin offenders from 

drug traffickers generally, who most often committed an assault as their most 

serious recidivist offense. 

1.4% 1.4% 3.6%

15.1%

1.4%

18.0%

0.7%

11.2%

2.2% 4.3% 6.8%

3.6% 1.4%

6.8%

16.2%

0.4%

5.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Most	
  Serious	
  Recidivism	
  Offense

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 5.7 

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense
Chapter Five: 

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

58 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Criminal History 

Recidivism rates for heroin offenders were 

generally associated with total criminal history 

points. Only 31.4 percent of offenders with zero 

criminal history points recidivated within eight years, 

compared to 69.1 percent for offenders with more 

than ten criminal history points. Although recidivism 

among heroin offenders generally rose as criminal 

history scores increased, it did not do so smoothly. 

This may be accounted for, at least in part, by the 

relatively small number of heroin offenders in the 

study (for example, only ten heroin offenders had 

exactly ten criminal history points).

Recidivism for heroin offenders was also associated 

with CHC. Recidivism rates ranged from a low of 36.3 

percent for those in CHC I to a high of 73.9 percent 

for those in CHC IV (CHC V and CHC VI not including 

career offenders were only slightly lower). Heroin 

career offenders/armed career criminals recidivated 

at a rate (61.1%) between that for CHC III and CHC IV 

heroin offenders. The association between recidivism 

and CHC was similar to that among all drug trafficking 

offenders, although somewhat less even due to the 

relatively small number of subjects.

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

There was a clear inverse association between 

a heroin offender’s guideline BOL and the rate of 

recidivism. Specifically, heroin offenders with BOLs of 

24 or less recidivated at the highest rate, 57.3 percent, 

while those offenders with BOLs of between 26 and 

30 recidivated less often (48.1%), and those with the 

highest BOLs of between 32 and 42 recidivated least 

of all (37.7%). As noted above with respect to all 

drug traffickers, lower BOLs correspond to somewhat 

younger ages upon release, and younger age is 

generally associated with higher recidivism. This 

principle may serve as at least one factor explaining 

31.4%

55.7%

51.7%

44.2% 41.7%

66.7%

47.6%

68.8%

72.2%

66.7%

80.0%

69.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=252)

1

(n=61)

2

(n=29)

3

(n=43)

4

(n=24)

5

(n=27)

6

(n=21)

7

(n=16)

8

(n=18)

9

(n=18)

10

(n=10)

More	
  than	
  10

(n=68)

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  

the	
  analysis.	
  

Figure 5.8

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Points

Figure 5.9

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Category

36.3%

47.1%

54.4%

73.9% 71.4% 71.0%

61.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I

(n=314)

CHC II

(n=70)

CHC III

(n=68)

CHC IV

(n=46)

CHC V

(n=21)

CHC VI

(n=31)

Career Offender/

Armed Career Criminal

(n=36)

Criminal History Category

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the 

analysis. 
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 59

the link between recidivism and BOL among heroin 

offenders. 

There was a similar inverse association between 

the length of a drug mandatory minimum penalty and 

the rate of recidivism. Offenders convicted of a drug 

offense carrying no mandatory minimum penalty 

recidivated more often than those convicted of a drug 

offense carrying a five-year mandatory minimum 

penalty (52.4% and 44.3%, respectively), while those 

convicted of an offense carrying a ten-year mandatory 

minimum penalty recidivated slightly less often 

(42.9%).59 Again, those convicted of no drug offense 

carrying a mandatory minimum penalty, or of offenses 

carrying shorter ones, are younger upon release, 

and therefore at a higher risk of recidivism. This 

relative youth at time of release may be at least one 

factor explaining the link between lower mandatory 

minimum penalties and higher recidivism.

Heroin offenders who received a safety valve 

reduction recidivated at a substantially lower rate 

(37.1% versus 52.1%) than offenders who received 

no reduction, but this drop can be explained by the 

minimal criminal history score necessary to benefit 

from the safety valve. Among CHC I heroin offenders, 

those who received a safety valve reduction recidivated 

in 36.7 percent of cases, while those who received no 

safety valve reduction recidivated at an even lower rate 

(34.4%). Thus, for heroin offenders, it appears that the 

reduction in recidivism among offenders receiving the 

safety valve is entirely attributable to the restriction on 

safety valve application to offenders with no more than 

one criminal history point. 

There was little to no association between 

application of a weapon enhancement and recidivism. 

Heroin offenders with a weapon enhancement 

recidivated at a rate of 49.3 percent, compared to 46.9 

percent for those without a weapon enhancement. 

46.9% 49.3% 52.1%

37.1% 34.4% 36.7%

47.3% 45.2%

50.8%

38.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=523)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=67)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=340)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=224)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=90)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=218)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=548)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=42)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  

(n=415)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=175)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  The	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  a	
  conviction	
  under	
  18	
  U.S.C.	
  § 924(c)	
  and/or	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  a	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  under	
  the	
  guidelines.	
  The	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  account	
  

for	
  safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1991	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  number	
  of	
  

offenders	
  in	
  the	
  CHC	
  I	
  group	
  may	
  not	
  equal	
  the	
  total	
  number	
  of	
  offenders	
  with	
  safety	
  valve	
  applied	
  in	
  the	
  All	
  Offenders	
  group due	
  to	
  missing	
  information	
  on	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  or	
  safety	
  valve	
  application	
  in	
  

cases	
  with	
  higher	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Categories. The	
  aggravating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  

with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  

Safety	
  Valve

(All	
  Offenders)

Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

Safety	
  Valve

(CHC	
  I	
  Offenders)

57.3%

48.1%

37.7%

52.4%

44.3% 42.9%

0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=150)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=239)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=183)

None

(n=233)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=185)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=154)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=6)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  or	
  any	
  adjustments	
  under	
  other	
  guideline	
  provisions.	
  Offenders	
  with	
  BOLs	
  determined	
  by guideline	
  provisions	
  without	
  reference	
  to	
  the	
  DQT	
  (e.g.,	
  §2D1.1(a)(1),	
  §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=18).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  585	
  offenders,	
  one	
  was	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  

Figure 5.10

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 5.11 

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Five: 

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

60 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Among drug trafficking offenders as a whole, there was 

also no association, with the numbers approximately 

equal.

Receipt of an aggravating role enhancement 

had minimal association with recidivism. Heroin 

offenders who received an aggravating role adjustment 

recidivated at a slightly lower rate than those who 

did not receive such an adjustment (45.2% versus 

47.3%). A larger inverse association between receipt 

of the aggravating role enhancement and recidivism (a 

difference of about 11 percentage points) existed among 

drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

There was a greater association between receipt of 

the mitigating role reduction and a lower likelihood of 

recidivism. Just over half (50.8%) of heroin offenders 

who did not receive a mitigating role adjustment 

recidivated, compared to 38.3 percent of those who did. 

This differs from drug traffickers as a whole, for whom 

the recidivism rate was nearly equal in both groups. 

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

The relationship between the sentence imposed 

and the sentencing guideline range had little impact 

on the recidivism rate of most heroin offenders, 

although those who received a non-government 

sponsored below-range sentence recidivated at a 

lower rate (39.3%) than those who received withinrange sentences (47.4%) or substantial assistance 

reductions (49.0%). For drug traffickers as a whole, 

all three groups had approximately equal recidivism 

rates. Because only 61 heroin offenders fell into the 

non-government sponsored below-range group, this 

result should be interpreted with caution. There was 

an insufficient number of offenders who received other 

types of sentences relative to the guidelines to conduct a 

meaningful analysis.

There was little to no association between the 

47.4% 49.0%

39.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Within Range

(n=350)

 Substantial Assistance (§5K1.1 )

(n=151)

 Non-Government Sponsored Below Range

(n=61)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

33.3%

54.6% 52.0% 47.4% 46.7% 49.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up to 6 Months

(n=9)

6 to 11 Months

(n=11)

12 to 23 Months

(n=50)

24 to 59 Months

(n=228)

60 to 119 Months

(n=165)

120 Months or More

(n=81)

Length of Federal Imprisonment Sentence Imposed

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as described in 

USSG §5C1.1. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Figure 5.12 

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Selected Positions Relative to the Guideline Range

Figure 5.13

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment

Length of Imprisonment
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 61

Unlike among all drug traffickers combined, the association between length 

of imprisonment and rate of recidivism for heroin traffickers remains unclear 

when it is considered in conjunction with Criminal History Category. The small 

number of cases involving heroin trafficking, smaller than the other drug types, 

hampers reporting by subgroups.

length of a heroin offender’s original federal sentence and rate of recidivism, 

particularly when examining sentences of at least one year. Each group of 

heroin offenders that was sentenced to at least a year in prison recidivated at a 

rate of between 46.7 percent and 52.0 percent, with the highest rate belong to 

those sentenced to between 12 and 23 months, and the lowest rate belonging 

to those offenders who received sentences of between 60 and 119 months. 

This lack of association was similar to that found among all drug trafficking 

offenders.

Figure 5.14

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment & Criminal History Category 

41.9%

37.5%

80.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

35.3%

61.5%

66.7%

75.0%

85.7%

77.8%

35.6%

42.9% 40.6%

71.4%

44.4%

61.5%

33.3%

28.6%

63.6% 62.5%

100.0%

71.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI

12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months

60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as 

described in USSG §5C1.1. This analysis excludes offenders classified as Career Offenders or Armed Career Criminals. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. See appendix for the number of offenders in each category. 

Criminal History Category
Chapter Five: 

HEROIN TRAFFICKERS

62 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Age at release was also associated with a lower risk of recidivism although, 

again, the pattern was less clear cut than for other drug trafficking offenders. 

Heroin offenders released between 21 and 40 recidivated at rates varying from 

47.2 percent to 53.6 percent (this highest rate was among 36-40 year olds). 

Beginning with heroin offenders released after age 40, recidivism rates declined, 

reaching a low of 10.5 percent for those released after 60. Once again, the 

relatively small number of heroin offenders in each age group is an indication 

that caution should be used in interpreting these results.

Recidivism and Age

Recidivism rates among heroin offenders generally declined as their age at 

sentencing increased, although, unlike other drug trafficking offenders, this 

decline did not manifest itself until the 36 to 40 age group. Heroin offenders 

aged 21 to 35 at sentencing recidivated at rates of between 51.5 percent and 

55.4 percent, while only 29.0 percent of those sentenced between 51 and 60 

years old recidivated. 

Age	
  at	
  Sentencing Age	
  at	
  Release

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

51.9% 52.0% 51.5%

55.4%

42.3% 41.4%

29.0%

0.0%

33.3%

52.3%

47.2%

51.9% 53.6%

45.1%

37.3%

10.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger	
  than	
  21	
  	
   21	
  to	
  25	
  years	
  	
  	
   26	
  to	
  30	
  years	
   31	
  to	
  35	
  years	
  	
   36	
  to	
  40	
  years	
   41	
  to	
  50	
  years	
  	
   51-­‐‐60	
  years Older	
  than	
  60

n=27 n=3 n=125 n=86 n=130 n=108 n=83 n=108 n=78 n=84 n=99 n=122 n=38 n=59 n=9 n=19

Figure 5.15 

Rearrest Rates for Heroin Trafficking Offenders by Age at Sentencing & Release
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 63

Chapter Six:

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

This chapter analyzes recidivism among the 2,570 federal marijuana trafficking offenders in the larger 

study group of 10,888 drug trafficking offenders. 

Over the eight-year study period, marijuana offenders recidivated at a rate of 50.0 percent, the same 

rate as for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. 

Chapter Overview

• Offender & Offense Characteristics

• Sentences Imposed

• Recidivism Findings

Recidivism Rates

Rearrest

50.0%

Reconviction

30.6% Reincarceration

24.2%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

n=1,285

n=787

n=621

N=2,570
Chapter Six: 

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

66 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Marijuana offenders were nearly the same age at both sentencing and at 

release as drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The median marijuana offender 

was 30 years old at the time of sentencing and 33 years old at the time of 

release, compared to median ages of 30 and 34 for all drug trafficking offenders. 

Offenders aged 21 to 25 represented the largest single age group at the time of 

sentencing (22.1%), while those between 26 and 30 were the largest age group 

at the time of release (19.2%). Very few offenders were over age 60 at either the 

time of sentencing (1.7%) or release (2.7%). Compared to all drug offenders, 

higher proportions of marijuana offenders were under age 21 at the time of 

sentencing (7.6%) and release (3.7%).

Offender and Offense Characteristics

Demographics

Compared to drug trafficking offenders as a whole, marijuana offenders were 

more likely to be Hispanic (45.5%) or White (40.1%), and less likely to be Black 

(11.0%); another 3.4 percent were of another race. Among all drug trafficking 

offenders, nearly equal numbers were Black (37.2%) and White (34.6%), and 

25.5 percent were Hispanic. As with all drug trafficking offenders, a substantial 

majority (83.9%) of marijuana offenders were male.

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 1,030 40.1%

Black 282 11.0%

Hispanic 1,167 45.5%

Other 87 3.4%

Gender N %

Male 2,154 83.9%

Female 415 16.2%

Citizenship N %

U.S.	
  Citizens 2,570 100.0%

Age

Median	
  Age	
  at	
  Sentencing 30	
  Years

Median	
  Age at	
  Release 33	
  Years

Younger	
  than	
  21

7.6%

(n=195)

Ages	
  21	
  to	
  25

22.1%

(n=568)

Ages	
  26	
  to	
  30

20.3%

(n=521) Ages	
  31	
  to	
  35

14.7%

(n=377)

Ages	
  36	
  to	
  40

11.0%

(n=282)

Ages	
  41	
  to	
  50

15.4%

(n=394)

Ages	
  51	
  to	
  60

7.3%

(n=187)

Older	
  than	
  60

1.7%

(n=43)

Age	
  at	
  Sentencing

Younger	
  than	
  21

3.7%

(n=94)

Ages	
  21	
  to	
  25

17.9%

(n=460)

Ages	
  26	
  to	
  30

19.2%

(n=493)

Ages	
  31	
  to	
  35

16.7%

(n=428)

Ages	
  36	
  to	
  40

11.7%

(n=301)

Ages	
  41	
  to	
  50

18.4%

(n=471)

Ages	
  51	
  to	
  60

9.7%

(n=250)

Older	
  than	
  60

2.7%

(n=70)

Age	
  at	
  Release

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 6.1

Demographic Characteristics of Marijuana Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 67

Offense Characteristics

Marijuana offenders generally had lower BOLs than 

drug offenders as a whole. Over half (56.3%) had a BOL 

of between 6 and 24, while just over a third (34.9%) had 

a BOL of between 26 and 30, and only 8.8% had a BOL 

of 32 or higher.60 For all drug offenders, the highest two 

BOL categories each accounted for about 37 percent of 

offenders, with a smaller number in the lowest category.

Marijuana offenders were convicted of a drug offense 

carrying a mandatory minimum penalty less often than 

drug trafficking offenders overall. Of the 40.7 percent 

who were convicted of such an offense, most were 

convicted of an offense carrying a five-year mandatory 

minimum penalty. Among all drug trafficking offenders, 

most (62.5%) were convicted of a drug offense carrying 

a mandatory minimum penalty, of whom nearly equal 

proportions were convicted of offenses carrying five and 

ten year penalties. 

 Marijuana offenders received safety valve relief 

more often than drug trafficking offenders overall. Over 

two-fifths (42.1%) of marijuana offenders received a 

safety valve reduction, compared to 34.9% of all drug 

trafficking offenders.

Marijuana offenders were less likely than all drug 

offenders to receive a weapon enhancement (8.4% 

versus 14.3%). They were slightly more likely to receive 

an aggravating role adjustment (7.1% versus 6.2%), 

and more likely to receive a mitigating role adjustment 

(28.8% versus 19.3%).

56.3%

34.9%

8.8%

59.3%

0.2%

30.5%

9.7%

0.2% 0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=1,441)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=895)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=226)

None

(n=1,517)

12	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=5)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=781)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=248)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=6)

Life	
  	
  	
  

(n=0)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  or	
  any	
  adjustments	
  under	
  other	
  guideline	
  provisions.	
  Offenders	
  with	
  BOLs	
  determined	
  by guideline	
  provisions	
  without	
  reference	
  to	
  the	
  DQT	
  (e.g.,	
  §2D1.1(a)(1),	
  §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=8).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  2,557offenders,	
  none	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

91.6%

8.4%

57.9%

42.1%

92.9%

7.1%

71.3%

28.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,353)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=217)

No	
  Safety	
  Valve	
  

(n=1,468)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,067)

No	
  Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,387)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=183)

No	
  Adjustment	
  

(n=1,831)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=739)

Safety	
  Valve Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  The	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  a	
  conviction	
  under	
  18	
  U.S.C.	
  § 924(c)	
  and/or	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  a	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  under	
  the	
  guidelines.	
  The	
  safety	
  valve	
  analysis	
  accounts	
  for	
  

safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analysis	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1992	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  aggravating	
  role	
  

adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  

sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 6.2

Application Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 6.3

Application Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Six: 

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

68 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

had more than ten points (7.3%), fell into CHC VI (3.5%), or were career 

offenders/armed career criminals (3.2%). 

Sentences Originally Imposed

A large majority (91.0%) of marijuana offenders were sentenced to some 

term of incarceration. Of those who were, 44.0 percent received sentences 

of between 24 and 59 months; 22.3 percent received sentences of 12 and 23 

months; and 19.2 percent received sentences of between 60 and 119 months. 

The remainder received sentences of either less than 12 months (9.1%) or 

120 months or more (5.5%). While most drug trafficking offenders were also 

imprisoned for some length of time, they were typically sentenced to longer 

terms of incarceration than marijuana offenders, with 19.0 percent of all drug 

offenders receiving a sentence of 120 months or more, and just under half 

(49.8%) receiving a sentence of less than 60 months.

Criminal History

Marijuana offenders had criminal histories that were generally less 

serious than those of drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The largest single 

proportion (45.4%) received no criminal history points, while 14.6 percent 

received one point and 4.8 percent received more than ten points. The majority 

of marijuana offenders (59.8%) were in CHC I, followed by 15.1 percent in CHC 

III and 13.9 percent in CHC II. In addition to the 2.3 percent of offenders who 

were classified in CHC VI based on their number of criminal history points, 

an additional 1.5 percent were designated as career offenders/armed career 

criminals. By comparison, just over one-third (36.5%) of all drug trafficking 

offenders had zero criminal history points, and a slight majority (50.3%) were 

in CHC I. Greater proportions of all drug offenders than marijuana offenders 

45.4%

14.6%

5.4% 8.5% 6.1% 4.4% 4.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9%

4.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,163)

1	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=373)

2	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=137)

3	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=217)

4	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=155)

5	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=112)

6	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=126)

7	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=56)

8	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=44)

9	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=32)

10	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=24)

More	
  than	
  

10	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=124)

Criminal	
  History	
  Category

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

CHC	
  I

59.8%

(n=1,535) CHC	
  II

13.9%

(n=357)

CHC	
  III

15.1%

(n=387)

CHC	
  IV

4.7%

(n=120)

CHC	
  V

2.7%

(n=70)

CHC	
  VI

2.3%

(n=59)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal

1.5%

(n=38)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Points	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  the	
  expected	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  due	
  to	
  career	
  offender/armed	
  career	
  criminal	
  classification	
  or	
  missing	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  

rounding.

Figure 6.4

Criminal History Scores of Marijuana Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 69

As explained above, recidivism throughout this study was primarily reported 

by rearrest data; however, analysis also showed that marijuana offenders were 

reconvicted of another offense at a rate of 30.6 percent, and reincarcerated at 

a rate of 24.2 percent. This compares with a reconviction rate of 30.8 percent 

and a reincarceration rate of 23.4 percent for all drug offenders. The Appendix 

contains more detailed information using these two measures of recidivism.

Recidivism	
  	
  Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 50.0% 30.6% 24.2%

Median	
  Time	
  to	
  Recidivism 21	
  Months 31	
  Months 29	
  Months

Median	
  Number of	
  Recidivism	
  Events 2 1 1

Most	
  Serious	
  Post-­‐‐ReleaseEvent Assault

(21.7%, n=279)

Drug	
  Trafficking

(21.1%, n=166)

Drug	
  Trafficking

(23.5%, n=146)

Median Age	
  at	
  Release 31 30 30

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
   Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
   cases	
  

from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  Median	
  age	
  at	
  release	
   is	
  shown	
  for	
  recidivist	
  offenders	
  

only.	
  	
  

The majority of marijuana offenders (63.9%) received a sentence that was 

within their sentencing guideline range. Almost one-quarter (22.6%) received 

below-range sentences due to a departure granted for providing substantial 

assistance to the government. Another 6.1 percent received below-range 

sentences that were not requested by the government, while 7.2 percent 

received below-range sentences that were requested by the government for 

some reason other than substantial assistance. The smallest proportion (0.3%) 

received above-range sentences. A majority (57.8%) of all drug offenders also 

received within-range sentences, although a greater proportion of that group 

(32.8%) received a substantial assistance departure.

Recidivism Findings 

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration

Marijuana offenders had the same rate of recidivism (50.0%, or 1,285 of the 

2,570 total marijuana offenders) as all drug traffickers.

Position	
  Relative	
  to	
  the	
  Guideline	
  Range

Within	
  Range

63.9%

(n=1,611)

Above	
  Range

0.3%

(n=7)

Substantial	
  Assistance	
  

(USSG	
  §5K1.1)

22.6%

(n=569)

Other	
  Government	
  

Sponsored	
  Below	
  Range

7.2%

(n=181)

Non-­‐‐Government	
  Sponsored	
  

Below	
  Range

6.1%

(n=155)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.	
  The	
  sentence	
  length	
  analysis	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  

Figure 6.5

Sentences Imposed on Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

Table 6.1

Recidivism Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

Sentence Type Length of Imprisonment

Prison Only

87.1%

(n=2,233)

Prison/Community Split Sentence

3.9%

(n=99)

Probation/Community Confinement

2.9%

(n=73)

Probation Only

6.2%

(n=159)

Up to 6 Months

4.9%

(n=113) 6 to 11 Months

4.2%

(n=97)

12 to 23 Months

22.3%

(n=518)

24 to 59 Months

44.0%

(n=1,025)

60 to 119 Months

19.2%

(n=446)

120 Months or More

5.5%

(n=129)
Chapter Six: 

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

70 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

As the study period progressed, every year saw fewer marijuana offenders 

recidivate for the first time. During the first year following release into the 

community, 15.5 percent recidivated for the first time. This rate declined to 12.4 

percent in the second year and 6.4 percent in the third year. Only 1.6 percent 

of marijuana offenders recidivated for the first time in the eighth year. This 

reflects the pattern seen for drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

Time to First Recidivism Event

For marijuana offenders, median time to recidivism was 21 months, with a 

median of two recidivist events (arrests) on separate days. This means that half 

of those marijuana offenders who recidivated first did so between one and two 

years after their release. For all drug trafficking offenders, the median time to 

recidivism was 25 months, with the same median of two events. 

Figure 6.6

Time to First Rearrest of Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. In cases in which any reconviction or reincarceration is known, but the date of arrest leading to the 

reconviction/reincarceration is unknown, the reconviction/reincarceration date is assigned as the rearrest date.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Year After Release

Median Time to First Rearrest:

21 Months

Reincarceration, 24.2%

Reconviction, 30.6%

Rearrest, 50.0%

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year After Release 397 15.5% 15.5%

Two Years After Release 318 12.4% 27.9%

Three Years After Release 164 6.4% 34.3%

Four Years After Release 142 5.5% 39.8%

Five Years After Release 93 3.6% 43.4%

Six Years After Release 67 2.6% 46.0%

Seven Years After Release 62 2.4% 48.4%

Eight Years After Release 42 1.6% 50.0%
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 71

After assaults, “other public order” offenses were the most prevalent most 

serious recidivist offense for marijuana offenders, at 19.3 percent, with drug 

trafficking offenses (13.1%) and drug possession (11.1%) occurring next most 

frequently. Other offenses that were the most serious offense for at least five 

percent of marijuana offenders were DUI/DWI (10.4%) and larceny (6.0%). 

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

Assault was the single most prevalent “most serious” recidivist offense for 

marijuana offenders (21.7%). The same was true for all drug offenders, for 

whom assaults were the most serious recidivist offense in 23.8 percent of cases.

0.9% 1.2% 1.8%

21.7%

1.9%

13.1%

2.0%

6.0%

2.5% 2.0%

11.1%

2.5% 0.6%

10.4%

19.3%

0.1%

3.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Most	
  Serious	
  Recidivism	
  Offense

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 6.7

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense
Chapter Six: 

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

72 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Criminal History 

As with drug traffickers as a whole, recidivism rates 

for marijuana offenders were associated with total 

criminal history points. Only 38.6 percent of offenders 

with zero criminal history points recidivated within 

eight years, compared to 76.6 percent for offenders 

with more than ten criminal history points. With minor 

exceptions, recidivism among marijuana offenders 

generally rose smoothly as criminal history points 

increased.

Recidivism for marijuana offenders was also 

strongly associated with CHC. Recidivism rates climbed 

steadily from a low of 41.5 percent for those in CHC 

I to a high of 79.7 percent for those in CHC VI based 

on criminal history points. Career offenders/armed 

career criminals had a recidivism rate of 65.8 percent, 

approximately the same as those in CHC IV. These 

results were similar to those found among all drug 

offenders.

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

There was a clear inverse association between a 

marijuana offender’s guideline BOL and the rate of 

recidivism. Specifically, marijuana offenders with 

BOLs of 24 or less recidivated at the highest rate, 54.1 

percent, while those offenders with BOLs of between 

26 and 30 recidivated less often (46.5%), and those 

with the highest BOLs of between 32 and 42 recidivated 

least of all (38.5%). As noted above with respect to all 

drug traffickers, lower BOLs correspond to somewhat 

younger ages upon release, and younger age is generally 

associated with higher recidivism. This principle 

likely also serves as at least one factor explaining the 

link between recidivism and BOL among marijuana 

offenders. 

There was a similar inverse association between the 

length of a drug mandatory minimum penalty and the 

38.6%

50.4%

62.0%

53.5%

58.1% 61.6% 65.1% 64.3% 65.9%

71.9%

79.2% 76.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=1,163)

1

(n=373)

2

(n=137)

3

(n=217)

4

(n=155)

5

(n=112)

6

(n=126)

7

(n=56)

8

(n=44)

9

(n=32)

10

(n=24)

More	
  than	
  10

(n=124)

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  

perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

41.5%

56.6%

62.0% 65.0%

78.6% 79.7%

65.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC	
  I	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,535)

CHC	
  II	
  	
  

(n=357)

CHC	
  III	
  	
  

(n=387)

CHC	
  IV	
  	
  	
  

(n=120)

CHC	
  V	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=70)

CHC	
  VI	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=59)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal	
  	
  	
  

(n=38)

Criminal	
  History	
  Category

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  

Figure 6.8

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Points

Figure 6.9

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Category
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 73

54.1%

46.5%

38.5%

55.5%

44.6%

35.1%

16.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=1,441)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=895)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=226)

None

(n=1,517)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=781)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=248)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=6)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  or	
  any	
  adjustments	
  under	
  other	
  guideline	
  provisions.	
  Offenders	
  with	
  BOLs	
  determined	
  by guideline	
  provisions	
  without	
  reference	
  to	
  the	
  DQT	
  (e.g.,	
  §2D1.1(a)(1),	
  §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=8).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  2,557offenders,	
  none	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  

50.3% 47.0%

55.6%

42.6% 41.4% 41.8%

50.7%

40.4%

47.8%

55.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,353)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=217)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=1,468)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,067)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=476)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,042)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=2,387)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=183)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  

(n=1,831)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=739)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  The	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  a	
  conviction	
  under	
  18	
  U.S.C.	
  § 924(c)	
  and/or	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  a	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  under	
  the	
  guidelines.	
  The	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  account	
  

for	
  safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1991	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  number	
  of	
  

offenders	
  in	
  the	
  CHC	
  I	
  group	
  may	
  not	
  equal	
  the	
  total	
  number	
  of	
  offenders	
  with	
  safety	
  valve	
  applied	
  in	
  the	
  All	
  Offenders	
  group due	
  to	
  missing	
  information	
  on	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  or	
  safety	
  valve	
  application	
  in	
  

cases	
  with	
  higher	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Categories. The	
  aggravating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  

with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  

Safety	
  Valve

(All	
  Offenders)

Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

Safety	
  Valve

(CHC	
  I	
  Offenders)

rate of recidivism. Offenders convicted of a drug offense 

carrying no mandatory minimum penalty recidivated 

more often than those convicted of an offense carrying 

a five-year mandatory minimum penalty (55.5% and 

44.6%, respectively), while those convicted of a drug 

offense carrying a ten-year mandatory minimum 

penalty recidivated less often still (35.1%). Again, those 

convicted of no drug offense carrying a mandatory 

minimum penalty, or of offenses carrying shorter ones, 

are younger upon release, and therefore at a higher risk 

of recidivism. This relative youth at time of release may 

be at least one factor explaining the link between lower 

mandatory minimum penalties and higher recidivism.

Marijuana offenders who received a safety valve 

reduction recidivated at a substantially lower rate 

(42.6% versus 55.6%) than offenders who received no 

reduction, but this drop can be explained by the minimal 

criminal history score necessary to benefit from the 

safety valve. Among CHC I marijuana offenders, those 

who received a safety valve reduction recidivated in 41.8 

percent of cases, while those who received no safety 

valve reduction recidivated at nearly the same rate 

(41.4%). Thus, for marijuana offenders, it appears that 

the reduction in recidivism among offenders receiving 

the safety valve is largely attributable to the restriction 

on safety valve application to offenders with no more 

than one criminal history point. 

There was no association between application of 

a weapon enhancement and recidivism. Marijuana 

offenders with a weapon enhancement recidivated at 

a rate of 47.0 percent, compared to 50.3 percent for 

those without a weapon enhancement. Among drug 

trafficking offenders as a whole, there was also no 

association, with the numbers approximately equal.

There was an inverse association between receipt 

of the aggravating role enhancement and recidivism. 

Marijuana offenders who received an aggravating role 

Figure 6.10

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 6.11

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Six: 

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

74 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

adjustment recidivated at a lower rate than those who 

did not receive such an adjustment (40.4% versus 

50.7%). A similar inverse association existed among 

drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

There was a mild association between receipt of 

the mitigating role reduction and recidivism. Over 

half (55.4%) of marijuana offenders who received a 

mitigating role adjustment recidivated, while only 47.8 

percent of those who did not receive the adjustment 

recidivated. By contrast, among drug traffickers as a 

whole there was no association between receipt of the 

mitigating role adjustment and likelihood of recidivism.

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

The relationship between the sentence imposed 

and the sentencing guideline range had relatively 

little impact on the recidivism rate of most marijuana 

offenders, although those who received a withinrange sentence recidivated at a moderately higher 

rate (51.3%) than those who received substantial 

assistance reductions (44.3%) or non-government 

sponsored below-range sentences (45.2%). There was 

an insufficient number of offenders who received other 

types of sentences relative to the guidelines to conduct 

a meaningful analysis. There was little association 

between position relative to the guideline range and 

recidivism among drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

There was little association between the length of a 

marijuana offender’s original federal sentence and rate 

of recidivism, particularly when examining sentences of 

at least one year. Each group of marijuana offenders that 

was sentenced to at least a year in prison recidivated at a 

rate of between 45.0 percent and 54.5 percent, with the 

highest rate belonging to those sentenced to between 24 

and 59 months, and the lowest rate belonging to those 

offenders who received sentences of 120 months or 

more. This lack of association was similar to that found 

among all drug trafficking offenders.

36.3%

62.9%

52.5% 54.5%

45.3% 45.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up	
  to	
  6	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=113)

6	
  to	
  11	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=97)

12	
  to	
  23	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=518)

24	
  to	
  59	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,025)

60	
  to	
  119	
  Months	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=446)

120	
  Months	
  or	
  More

(n=129)

Length	
  of	
  Federal	
  Imprisonment	
  Sentence	
  Imposed

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  	
  The	
  information	
  in	
  this	
  figure	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  

in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

Figure 6.13

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment

Figure 6.12

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Selected Positions Relative to the Guideline Range

51.3%

44.3% 45.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Within Range

(n=1,611)

 Substantial Assistance (§5K1.1 )

(n=569)

Non-Gov't Spons. Below Range

(n=155)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Length of Imprisonment
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 75

In the analysis of all drug trafficking offenders combined, the association 

between length of imprisonment and rate of recidivism became clearer when it 

was considered in conjunction with Criminal History Category. After accounting 

for the offender’s prior criminal history category, longer sentence lengths 

were generally associated with lower recidivism. The same is true when the 

analysis is limited to only marijuana traffickers. That is, a relationship between 

longer sentences and lower recidivism is generally evident among marijuana 

traffickers, although the smaller number of cases makes the relationship less 

prominent.

Figure 6.14

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment & Criminal History Category

44.4%

63.5%

71.8%

88.3%

80.0%

42.4%

63.8%

70.5% 70.9%

87.5% 86.7%

38.4%

40.8%

44.9%

52.6%

72.7%

81.0%

31.3%

40.0% 41.7%

75.0%

63.6%

57.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI

12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as 

described in USSG §5C1.1. This analysis excludes offenders classified as Career Offenders or Armed Career Criminals. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. See appendix for the number of offenders in each category. 

Criminal History Category
Chapter Six: 

MARIJUANA TRAFFICKERS

76 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

recidivism was found among drug offenders as a whole. In that larger 

population, however, recidivism in the oldest age group (60 and over) dropped 

well below the rates for marijuana offenders, with only 13.5 percent of all 

drug offenders over 60 at sentencing, and 16.5 percent of those over 60 at 

release, recidivating. Indeed, marijuana had the highest recidivism rate among 

this population of any drug type studied, although, due to the relatively small 

number of offenders in those age groups, those results should be interpreted 

with caution.

Recidivism and Age

Recidivism rates among marijuana offenders declined steadily as their age 

at sentencing increased. Marijuana offenders younger than 21 at sentencing 

recidivated at a rate of 65.1 percent, while 23.3 percent of those sentenced when 

over 60 recidivated. The largest single drop occurred between the 36 to 40 age 

group (47.2%) and the 41 to 50 age group (33.3%). 

Age at release was also generally associated with a lower risk of recidivism, 

which fell from 63.8 percent among those below 21 at release to 25.7 percent 

among those over 60 at release. The largest single drop also occurred between 

the 36 to 40 age group (49.8%) and the 41 to 50 age group (37.2%). A similar 

association between age at sentencing and release and a decreased likelihood of 

Age	
  at	
  Sentencing Age	
  at	
  Release

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  

65.1%

61.4%

57.0%

47.8% 47.2%

33.3%

29.4%

23.3%

63.8% 62.4% 59.0%

52.8% 49.8%

37.2%

30.0%

25.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger	
  than	
  21	
  	
   21	
  to	
  25	
  years	
  	
  	
   26	
  to	
  30	
  years	
   31	
  to	
  35	
  years	
  	
   36	
  to	
  40	
  years	
   41	
  to	
  50	
  years	
  	
   51-­‐‐60	
  years Older	
  than	
  60

n=195 n=94 n=568 n=460 n=521 n=493 n=377 n=428 n=282 n=301 n=394 n=471 n=187 n=250 n=43 n=70

Figure 6.15

Rearrest Rates for Marijuana Trafficking Offenders by Age at Sentencing & Release
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 77

Chapter Seven:

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

This chapter analyzes recidivism among the 1,826 federal methamphetamine trafficking offenders in 

the larger study group of 10,888 drug trafficking offenders. 

Over the eight-year study period, methamphetamine offenders recidivated at a rate of 44.8 percent, as 

compared to 50.0 percent for drug trafficking offenders as a whole. 

Chapter Overview

• Offender & Offense Characteristics

• Sentences Imposed

• Recidivism Findings

Recidivism Rates

Rearrest

44.8%

Reconviction

29.5% Reincarceration

21.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

n=818

n=538

n=398

N=1,826
Chapter Seven: 

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

80 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Methamphetamine offenders were, generally, older at sentencing and release 

than drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The median methamphetamine 

offender was 33 years old at the time of sentencing and 37 years old at the time 

of release, as compared to median ages of 30 and 34 for all drug trafficking 

offenders. Offenders aged 41 to 50 represented the largest single age group 

at the time of sentencing (19.1%), as well as at the time of release (26.9%). 

Very few offenders were over age 60 at either the time of sentencing (0.7%) 

or release (1.8%). Few offenders were under age 21 at the time of sentencing 

(3.6%), and only 0.6 percent were under 21 at the time of release. 

Offender and Offense Characteristics

Demographics

Compared to drug trafficking offenders as a whole, methamphetamine 

offenders were more than twice as likely to be White, much less likely to be 

Black, and slightly less likely to be Hispanic. More methamphetamine offenders 

were White (78.0%) than for any other drug type, while 14.8 percent were 

Hispanic, 1.9 percent were Black, and 5.4 percent were of another race. Among 

all drug trafficking offenders, nearly equal numbers were Black (37.2%) and 

White (34.6%), and 25.5 percent were Hispanic. As with all drug trafficking 

offenders, a majority (77.5%) of methamphetamine offenders were male, 

although the 22.5 percent of methamphetamine offenders who were female was 

the highest proportion of any drug type.

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 1,421 78.0%

Black 35 1.9%

Hispanic 269 14.8%

Other 98 5.4%

Gender N %

Male 1,415 77.5%

Female 411 22.5%

Citizenship N %

U.S.	
  Citizens 1,826 100.0%

Age

Median	
  Age	
  at	
  Sentencing 33	
  Years

Median	
  Age at	
  Release 37	
  Years

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 7.1 

Demographic Characteristics of Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders Younger than 21

3.6%

(n=65) Ages 21 to 25

17.2%

(n=314)

Ages 26 to 30

17.9%

(n=326)

Ages 31 to 35

18.6%

(n=339)

Ages 36 to 40

18.5%

(n=338)

Ages 41 to 50

19.1%

(n=349)

Ages 51 to 60

4.4%

(n=81)

Older than 60

0.7%

(n=13)

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21

0.6%

(n=10)

Ages 21 to 25

10.7%

(n=196)

Ages 26 to 30

14.6%

(n=267)

Ages 31 to 35

17.9%

(n=326)

Ages 36 to 40

18.5%

(n=338)

Ages 41 to 50

26.9%

(n=491)

Ages 51 to 60

9.0%

(n=164)

Older than 60

1.8%

(n=33)

Age at Release
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 81

Offense Characteristics 

Nearly half (47.4%) of methamphetamine 

offenders had BOLs of 32 or higher, while 40.8 

percent had a BOL of between 26 and 32, and 11.9 

percent had a BOL of between 6 and 24.61 Higher 

BOLs were overrepresented compared to all drug 

offenders, for whom the top two groups were nearly 

equal at about 37 percent.

Methamphetamine offenders were convicted 

of drug offenses carrying a mandatory minimum 

penalty more often than drug trafficking offenders 

overall. While 70.9 percent of methamphetamine 

offenders were convicted under such statutes, 

62.5 percent of all drug trafficking offenders were 

convicted of drug offenses carrying mandatory 

minimums.

 Methamphetamine offenders received safety valve 

relief about as often as drug trafficking offenders 

overall. Over one-third of both methamphetamine 

offenders and all drug trafficking offenders received 

a safety valve reduction at their original sentencing 

(36.9% and 34.9%, respectively).

Methamphetamine offenders were more 

likely than all drug offenders to receive a weapon 

enhancement (18.1% versus 14.3%). They were 

less likely to receive an aggravating role adjustment 

(3.9% versus 6.2%), and about equally likely to 

receive a mitigating role adjustment (18.4% versus 

19.3%).

11.9%

40.8%

47.4%

29.1%

0.6%

30.1%

38.9%

1.3% 0.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=213)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=731)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=849)

None

(n=529)

12	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=10)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=547)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=707)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=23)

Life	
  	
  	
  

(n=1)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  or	
  any	
  adjustments	
  under	
  other	
  guideline	
  provisions.	
  Offenders	
  with	
  BOLs	
  determined	
  by guideline	
  provisions	
  without	
  reference	
  to	
  the	
  DQT	
  (e.g.,	
  §2D1.1(a)(1),	
  §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  and	
  

offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=33).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  

minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining 1,817	
  offenders,	
  none	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  this	
  

analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

81.9%

18.1%

63.2%

36.9%

96.1%

3.9%

81.7%

18.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,496)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=330)

No	
  Safety	
  Valve	
  

(n=1,131)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=660)

No	
  Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,754)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  (n=72)

No	
  Adjustment	
  

(n=1,491)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=335)

Safety	
  Valve Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  The	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  a	
  conviction	
  under	
  18	
  U.S.C.	
  § 924(c)	
  and/or	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  a	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  under	
  the	
  guidelines.	
  The	
  safety	
  valve	
  analysis	
  accounts	
  

for	
  safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analysis	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1992	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  aggravating	
  

role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  

sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 7.2

Application Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties

Figure 7.3 

Application Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics
Chapter Seven: 

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

82 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

(7.3%), or fell into CHC VI (3.5%), while more drug offenders overall were 

career offenders/armed career criminals (3.2%). 

Sentences Originally Imposed

Methamphetamine offenders typically received prison sentences similar 

to those of the overall drug trafficking group. An overwhelming majority 

(96.8%) of methamphetamine offenders were sentenced to some term of 

incarceration. Of those who were, 15.1 percent received sentences of 120 

months or more; 35.8 percent received sentences of 60 to 119 months; and the 

remaining 49.1 percent received sentences of less than 60 months. Similarly, 

most drug trafficking offenders were also imprisoned for some length of time, 

with 19.0 percent receiving a sentence of 120 months or more, and just under 

half (49.8%) receiving a sentence of under 60 months.

Criminal History 

Methamphetamine offenders had criminal histories that were generally 

similar to those of drug trafficking offenders as a whole. The largest single 

proportion (35.2%) received no criminal history points, while 17.2 percent 

received one point and 6.2 percent received more than ten points. The majority 

of methamphetamine offenders (52.4%) were in CHC I, followed by 16.7 percent 

in CHC III and 15.1 percent in CHC II. In addition to the 3.5 percent of offenders 

who were classified in CHC VI based on their number of criminal history points, 

an additional 1.6 percent were designated as career offenders or armed career 

criminals. By comparison, just over one-third (36.5%) of all drug trafficking 

offenders had zero criminal history points, and a slight majority (50.3%) were 

in CHC I. Similar proportions of all drug offenders had more than ten points 

35.2%

17.2%

6.7% 8.3% 7.7% 4.7% 4.6% 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.7%

6.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=642)

1	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=314)

2	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=122)

3	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=151)

4	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=141)

5	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=85)

6	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=83)

7	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=60)

8	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=41)

9	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=41)

10	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=30)

More	
  than	
  

10	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=112)

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

CHC	
  I

52.4%

(n=957)

CHC	
  II

15.1%

(n=275)

CHC	
  III

16.7%

(n=304)

CHC	
  IV

7.4%

(n=135)

CHC	
  V

3.3%

(n=60)

CHC	
  VI

3.5%

(n=64)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal

1.6%

(n=30)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Points	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  the	
  expected	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  due	
  to	
  career	
  offender/armed	
  career	
  criminal	
  classification	
  or	
  missing	
  information.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  

rounding.

Criminal	
  History	
  Category

Figure 7.4

Criminal History Scores of Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 83

As explained above, recidivism throughout this study was primarily reported 

by rearrest data; however, analysis also showed that methamphetamine 

offenders were reconvicted of another offense at a rate of 29.5 percent, and 

reincarcerated at a rate of 21.8 percent. This compares with a reconviction rate 

of 30.8 percent and a reincarceration rate of 23.4 percent for all drug offenders. 

The Appendix contains more detailed information using these two measures of 

recidivism.

Uniquely among drug types in this study, less than half of methamphetamine 

offenders (47.1%) received a sentence that was within their sentencing 

guideline range. Almost as many (44.2%) received below-range sentences due 

to a departure granted for providing substantial assistance to the government. 

Another 7.9 percent received below-range sentences that were not requested 

by the government. Small numbers received below-range sentences that were 

requested by the government for some reason other than providing substantial 

assistance (0.7%), or received above-range sentences (0.2%). By contrast, a 

majority (57.8%) of all drug offenders received within-range sentences, and just 

under one-third (32.8%) received a substantial assistance departure.

Recidivism Findings 

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration

Methamphetamine offenders had a lower rate of recidivism (44.8%, or 818 of 

the 1,826 total methamphetamine offenders) than the 50.0 percent rate for drug 

traffickers as a group.

Position	
  Relative	
  to	
  the	
  Guideline	
  Range

Within	
  Range

47.1%

(n=837)

Above	
  Range

0.2%

(n=3)

Substantial	
  Assistance	
  

(USSG	
  §5K1.1)

44.2%

(n=786)

Other	
  Government	
  

Sponsored	
  Below	
  Range

0.7%

(n=13)

Non-­‐‐Government	
  Sponsored	
  

Below	
  Range

7.9%

(n=140)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.	
  The	
  sentence	
  length	
  analysis	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  

Recidivism	
  	
  Measure Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 44.8% 29.5% 21.8%

Median	
  Time	
  to	
  Recidivism 31	
  Months 37	
  Months 38	
  Months

Median	
  Number of	
  Recidivism	
  Events 2 1 1

Most	
  Serious	
  Post-­‐‐ReleaseEvent Assault

(24.7%, n=202)

Other	
  Public	
  

Order

(15.6%, n=84)

Other	
  Public	
  

Order

(19.1%, n=76)

Median Age	
  at	
  Release 34 33 33

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
   Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
   cases	
  

from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  Median	
  age	
  at	
  release	
   is	
  shown	
  for	
  recidivist	
  offenders	
  

only.	
  	
  

Table 7.1

Recidivism Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

Figure 7.5

Sentences Imposed on Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

Up to 6 Months

0.6%

(n=10)

6 to 11 Months

1.2%

(n=21) 12 to 23 Months

6.3%

(n=111)

24 to 59 Months

41.1%

60 to 119 Months (n=724)

35.8%

(n=631)

120 Months or More

15.1%

(n=266)

Sentence Type Length of Imprisonment

Prison Only

95.5%

(n=1,740)

Prison/Community Split Sentence

1.3%

(n=23)

Probation/Community Confinement

1.0%

(n=19)

Probation Only

2.3%

(n=41)
Chapter Seven: 

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

84 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

As the study period progressed, every year saw fewer methamphetamine 

offenders recidivate for the first time. During the first year following release 

into the community, 10.5 percent recidivated for the first time. This rate 

declined to 8.4 percent in the second year and 6.5 percent in the third year. Only 

1.8 percent of methamphetamine offenders recidivated for the first time in the 

eighth year. This reflects the pattern seen for drug trafficking offenders as a 

whole.

Time to First Recidivism Event

For methamphetamine offenders, median time to recidivism was 31 months, 

with a median of two recidivist events (arrests) on separate days. This means 

that half of those methamphetamine offenders who recidivated first did 

so between two and three years after their release. For all drug trafficking 

offenders, the median time to recidivism was 25 months, with the same median 

of two events. 

Figure 7.6

Time to First Rearrest of Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. In cases in which any reconviction or reincarceration is known, but the date of arrest leading to the 

reconviction/reincarceration is unknown, the reconviction/reincarceration date is assigned as the rearrest date.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Median Time to First Rearrest:

31 Months

Reincarceration, 21.8%

Reconviction, 29.5%

Rearrest, 44.8%

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year After Release 192 10.5% 10.5%

Two Years After Release 153 8.4% 18.9%

Three Years After Release 118 6.5% 25.4%

Four Years After Release 102 5.6% 31.0%

Five Years After Release 84 4.6% 35.6%

Six Years After Release 79 4.3% 39.9%

Seven Years After Release 57 3.1% 43.0%

Eight Years After Release 33 1.8% 44.8%
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 85

After assaults, drug trafficking offenses were the most prevalent most serious 

recidivist offense for methamphetamine offenders, at 14.6 percent, with “other 

public order” offenses (13.0%) and DUI/DWI (11.9%) occurring next most 

frequently. Other offenses that were the most serious offense for at least five 

percent of methamphetamine offenders were drug possession (10.2%) and 

larceny (6.6%). 

Most Serious Recidivism Offense

Assault was the single most prevalent “most serious” recidivist offense for 

methamphetamine offenders (24.7%). The same was true for all drug offenders, 

for whom assaults were the most serious recidivist offense in 23.8 percent of 

cases.

0.2% 1.1% 2.0%

24.7%

0.9%

14.6%

2.2%

6.6%

2.6% 3.6%

10.2%

2.3% 0.9%

11.9% 13.0%

0.2%

3.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Most	
  Serious	
  Recidivism	
  Offense

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Totals	
  may	
  not	
  sum	
  to	
  100.0%	
  due	
  to	
  rounding.

Figure 7.7

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense
Chapter Seven: 

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

86 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism and Criminal History 

As with drug traffickers as a whole, recidivism rates 

for methamphetamine offenders were associated with 

total criminal history points. Only 34.6 percent of 

offenders with zero criminal history points recidivated 

within eight years, compared to 67.0 percent for 

offenders with more than ten criminal history points. 

Some unevenness in the increase of the recidivism 

rate as criminal history scores rose may be accounted 

for, at least in part, by the relatively small number 

of methamphetamine offenders receiving some 

numbers of criminal history points (for example, only 

30 methamphetamine offenders received exactly ten 

points). 

Recidivism for methamphetamine offenders was 

also strongly associated with CHC, at least through 

CHC V. Recidivism rates ranged from a low of 36.6 

percent for those in CHC I to a high of 80.0 percent for 

those in CHC V. Methamphetamine offenders were 

somewhat unusual in that, compared to the peak 

recidivism rate for CHC V, the recidivism rates for CHC 

IV and CHC VI were substantially lower, at between 57 

and 61 percent in each of those categories. As with the 

data by criminal history points, this variance from the 

norm may be explained, in part, by the relatively small 

numbers of offenders in the higher CHCs.

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

There was a clear inverse association between a 

methamphetamine offender’s guideline BOL and the 

rate of recidivism. Specifically, methamphetamine 

offenders with BOLs of 24 or less recidivated at the 

highest rate, 63.4 percent, while those offenders with 

BOLs of between 26 and 30 recidivated less often 

(48.8%), and those with the highest BOLs of between 32 

and 42 recidivated least of all (36.9%). Analysis of all 

drug traffickers revealed that lower BOLs correspond 

to somewhat younger ages upon release, and younger 

34.6%

40.8%

47.5%

43.1%

48.2%

51.8%

61.5%

46.7%

65.9% 65.9%

76.7%

67.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=642)

1

(n=314)

2

(n=122)

3

(n=151)

4

(n=141)

5

(n=85)

6

(n=83)

7

(n=60)

8

(n=41)

9

(n=41)

10

(n=30)

More	
  than	
  10

(n=112)

Criminal	
  History	
  Points

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  

36.6%

45.5%

53.0%

57.0%

80.0%

60.9% 56.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC	
  I	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  

(n=957)

CHC	
  II	
  	
  

(n=275)

CHC	
  III	
  	
  

(n=304)

CHC	
  IV	
  	
  	
  

(n=135)

CHC	
  V	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=60)

CHC	
  VI	
  	
  	
  

(n=64)

Career	
  Offender/	
  	
  	
  

Armed	
  Career	
  Criminal	
  	
  	
  

(n=30)

Criminal	
  History	
  Category

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  

Figure 7.8

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Points

Figure 7.9

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Criminal History Category
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 87

age is generally associated with higher recidivism. 

This principle likely also serves as at least one factor 

explaining the link between recidivism and BOL among 

methamphetamine offenders. 

There was a similar inverse association between the 

length of a drug mandatory minimum penalty and the 

rate of recidivism. Offenders convicted of a drug offense 

carrying no mandatory minimum penalty recidivated 

more often than those convicted of an offense carrying 

a five-year mandatory minimum penalty (55.2% and 

46.4%, respectively), while those convicted of an offense 

carrying a ten-year mandatory minimum penalty 

recidivated slightly less often (36.9%). Again, analysis 

of all drug traffickers revealed that those convicted of no 

offense carrying a drug mandatory minimum penalty, 

or of offenses carrying shorter ones, are younger upon 

release, and therefore at a higher risk of recidivism. 

This relative youth at time of release may be at least one 

factor explaining the link between lower mandatory 

minimum penalties and higher recidivism.

Methamphetamine offenders who received a safety 

valve reduction recidivated at a substantially lower rate 

(36.5% versus 50.1%) than offenders who received no 

reduction, but this drop can be explained by the minimal 

criminal history score necessary to benefit from the 

safety valve. Among CHC I methamphetamine offenders, 

those who received a safety valve reduction recidivated 

in 36.1 percent of cases, while those who received 

no safety valve reduction recidivated only slightly 

more often (38.2%). Thus, for methamphetamine 

offenders, it appears that the reduction in recidivism 

among offenders receiving the safety valve is largely 

attributable to the restriction on safety valve application 

to offenders with no more than one criminal history 

point. 

There was no association between application 

of a weapon enhancement and recidivism. 

63.4%

48.8%

36.9%

55.2%

46.4%

36.9%

13.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

BOL	
  6-­‐‐24

(n=213)

BOL	
  26-­‐‐30

(n=731)

BOL	
  32-­‐‐42

(n=849)

None

(n=529)

60	
  Months	
  

(n=547)

120	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=707)

240	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=23)

Base	
  Offense	
  Level Drug	
  Mandatory	
  Minimum	
  Penalty

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  Base	
  Offense	
  Level	
  values	
  reflectthe	
  BOL	
  from	
  the	
  Drug	
  Quantity	
  Table	
  (DQT)	
  at	
  USSG	
  §2D1.1	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  

application of the	
  mitigating role	
  cap or any adjustments under other guideline	
  provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline	
  provisions without reference	
  to the	
  DQT (e.g., §2D1.1(a)(1), §2D1.2(a)(3))	
  

and	
  offenders	
  missing	
  information	
  required	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  BOL	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  the	
  mitigating	
  role	
  cap	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  base	
  offense	
  level	
  analysis	
  (n=33).	
  Information	
  on	
  drug	
  statutory	
  

mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalties	
  is	
  unavailable	
  in	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1992	
  and	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  in	
  that	
  year	
  were	
  excluded	
  from	
  the	
  drug	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  analysis.	
  Of	
  the	
  remaining	
  1,817	
  offenders,	
  none	
  were	
  

excluded	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  due	
  to	
  missing	
  or	
  unusual	
  drug	
  statutory	
  mandatory	
  minimum	
  penalty	
  information.	
  

44.8% 44.9%

50.1%

36.5% 38.2% 36.1%

45.2%

34.7%

45.3% 42.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Neither	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,496)

SOC/924(c)	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=330)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=1,131)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=660)

No	
  Safety	
  

Valve	
  

(n=293)

Safety	
  Valve	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=645)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=1,754)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=72)

No	
  

Adjustment	
  

(n=1,491)

Adjustment	
  

Applied	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=335)

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  each	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  The	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  a	
  conviction	
  under	
  18	
  U.S.C.	
  § 924(c)	
  and/or	
  the	
  application	
  of	
  a	
  weapon	
  enhancement	
  under	
  the	
  guidelines.	
  The	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  account	
  

for	
  safety	
  valve	
  relief	
  under	
  USSG	
  §§5C1.2	
  and	
  2D1.1.	
  Safety	
  valve	
  did	
  not	
  exist	
  prior	
  to	
  fiscal	
  year	
  1995	
  and	
  the	
  safety	
  valve	
  analyses	
  excludes	
  offenders	
  sentenced in	
  fiscal	
  years	
  1991	
  through	
  1994.	
  The	
  number	
  of	
  

offenders	
  in	
  the	
  CHC	
  I	
  group	
  may	
  not	
  equal	
  the	
  total	
  number	
  of	
  offenders	
  with	
  safety	
  valve	
  applied	
  in	
  the	
  All	
  Offenders	
  group due	
  to	
  missing	
  information	
  on	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Category	
  or	
  safety	
  valve	
  application	
  in	
  

cases	
  with	
  higher	
  Criminal	
  History	
  Categories. The	
  aggravating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  with	
  any	
  positive	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.1.	
  The	
  mitigating	
  role	
  adjustment	
  analysis	
  includes	
  offenders	
  

with	
  any	
  negative	
  value	
  under	
  USSG	
  §3B1.2.	
  In	
  addition,	
  offenders	
  sentenced	
  under	
  USSG	
  §2D1.8(a)(2)	
  are	
  included	
  as	
  receiving	
  mitigating	
  role.	
  

Safety	
  Valve

(All	
  Offenders)

Mitigating	
  Role	
  

Adjustment

Weapon	
  

Enhancement

Aggravating	
  Role

Adjustment

Safety	
  Valve

(CHC	
  I	
  Offenders)

Figure 7.11

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics

Figure 7.10

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Base Offense Level & Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalties
Chapter Seven: 

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

88 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Methamphetamine offenders with a weapon 

enhancement recidivated at a rate of 44.9 percent, 

compared to 44.8 percent for those without a weapon 

enhancement. Among drug trafficking offenders as a 

whole there was also no association.

There was an inverse association between receipt 

of the aggravating role enhancement and recidivism. 

Methamphetamine offenders who received an 

aggravating role adjustment recidivated at a lower rate 

than those who did not receive such an adjustment 

(34.7% versus 45.2%). A similar inverse association 

existed among drug trafficking offenders as a whole.

There was little or no association between receipt 

of the mitigating role reduction and recidivism. Nearly 

equal proportions of methamphetamine offenders who 

did not receive a mitigating role adjustment (45.3%) 

and those who did receive the adjustment (42.7%) 

recidivated. This mirrors the result among drug 

traffickers as a whole.

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

The relationship between the sentence imposed 

and the sentencing guideline range had relatively 

little impact on the recidivism rate of most 

methamphetamine offenders, although those who 

received a non-government sponsored below-range 

sentence recidivated at a slightly lower rate (41.4%) 

than those who received within-range sentences 

(45.4%) or substantial assistance reductions (45.3%). 

There was an insufficient number of offenders who 

received other types of sentences relative to the 

guidelines to conduct a meaningful analysis. Similarly, 

there was little association between position relative 

to the guideline range and recidivism among drug 

trafficking offenders as a whole.

There was little association between the length of a 

methamphetamine offender’s original federal sentence 

50.0% 52.4%

44.1% 45.3% 46.4%

36.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up	
  to	
  6	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=10)

6	
  to	
  11	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=21)

12	
  to	
  23	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=111)

24	
  to	
  59	
  Months	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=724)

60	
  to	
  119	
  Months	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

(n=631)

120	
  Months	
  or	
  More

(n=266)

Length	
  of	
  Federal	
  Imprisonment	
  Sentence	
  Imposed

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  	
  The	
  information	
  in	
  this	
  figure	
  does	
  not	
  include	
  sentences	
  of	
  probation	
  or	
  any	
  time	
  of	
  confinement	
  as	
  described	
  

in	
  USSG	
  §5C1.1.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  analysis.	
  

Figure 7.13

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment

45.4% 45.3%

41.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Within Range

(n=837)

 Substantial Assistance (§5K1.1 )

(n=786)

Non-Gov't Spons. Below Range

(n=140)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 7.12

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Selected Positions Relative to the Guideline Range

Length of Imprisonment
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 89

In the analysis of all drug trafficking offenders combined, the association 

between length of imprisonment and rate of recidivism became clearer when it 

was considered in conjunction with Criminal History Category. After accounting 

for the offender’s prior criminal history category, longer sentence lengths 

were generally associated with lower recidivism. The same is true when the 

analysis is limited to only methamphetamine traffickers. That is, a relationship 

between longer sentences and lower recidivism is generally evident among 

methamphetamine traffickers, although the smaller number of cases makes the 

relationship less prominent.

and rate of recidivism, particularly when examining sentences of at least one 

year. Each group of methamphetamine offenders that was sentenced to at least 

a year in prison recidivated at a rate of between 36.8 percent and 46.4 percent, 

with the highest rate belong to those sentenced to between 60 and 119 months, 

and the lowest rate belonging to those offenders who received sentences of 120 

months or more. This lack of association was similar to that found among all 

drug trafficking offenders.

Figure 7.14

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Length of Imprisonment & Criminal History Category

37.0%

53.9%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0% 100.0%

40.3%

49.0%

57.3%

61.3%

80.0%

44.4%

34.3%

45.3%

48.2%

56.2%

86.7%

64.7%

17.5%

31.0%

48.2% 48.0%

61.5% 60.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI

12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The information in this figure does not include sentences of probation or any time of confinement as 

described in USSG §5C1.1. This analysis excludes offenders classified as Career Offenders or Armed Career Criminals. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. See appendix for the number of offenders in each category. 

Criminal History Category
Chapter Seven: 

METHAMPHETAMINE TRAFFICKERS

90 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

Age at release was also generally associated with a lower risk of recidivism. 

The recidivism rate plateaued at about 60 percent among the age groups that 

were 30 or under at release, before beginning a decline that culminated in a 9.1 

percent recidivism rate among those over 60 at release. The largest single drop 

occurred between the 41 to 50 age group (35.6%) and the 51 to 60 age group 

(18.3%). A similar association between age at sentencing and release and a 

decreased likelihood of recidivism was found among drug offenders as a whole. 

Recidivism and Age

Recidivism rates among methamphetamine offenders declined as their age at 

sentencing increased. Methamphetamine offenders aged 21 to 25 at sentencing 

recidivated at a rate of 58.3 percent, while only 7.7 percent of those sentenced 

when over 60 recidivated. Excluding the small group of offenders under 21 at 

sentencing, the largest single drop occurred between the 36 to 40 age group 

(41.1%) and the 41 to 50 age group (27.8%). 

Age	
  at	
  Sentencing Age	
  at	
  Release

SOURCE:	
  U.S.	
  Sentencing	
  Commission’s	
  2005	
  Recidivism	
  Release	
  Cohort	
  Datafile,	
  RECID05_OFFUPDT.	
  The	
  Commission	
  excluded	
  cases	
  from	
  this	
  analysis	
  that	
  were	
  missing	
  information	
  necessary	
  to	
  perform	
  the	
  

analysis.	
  

73.9%

58.3% 55.5%

45.1%

41.1%

27.8%

18.5%

7.7%

60.0% 59.2% 59.6%

52.5%

46.5%

35.6%

18.3%

9.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger	
  than	
  21	
  	
  	
  	
   21	
  to	
  25	
  years	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   26	
  to	
  30	
  years	
   31	
  to	
  35	
  years	
  	
   36	
  to	
  40	
  years	
   41	
  to	
  50	
  years	
  	
   51-­‐‐60	
  years Older	
  than	
  60

n=65 n=10 n=314 n=196 n=326 n=267 n=339 n=326 n=338 n=338 n=349 n=491 n=81 n=164 n=13 n=33

Figure 7.15

Rearrest Rates for Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders by Age at Sentencing & Release
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 91

Chapter Eight: 

CONCLUSIONS
Chapter Eight: 

CONCLUSIONS

94 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

older age at release of those receiving longer mandatory minimum penalties 

may be at least one factor explaining the link between drug mandatory 

minimum penalties and recidivism.

There was little apparent association between the length of imprisonment 

and recidivism. However, once Criminal History Category is accounted for, the 

length of the sentence originally imposed was associated with lower rates of 

recidivism. For example, for drug trafficking offenders in the lowest Criminal 

History Category, those sentenced to between 12 and 23 months had the highest 

recidivism rate (44.5%), while those sentenced to 120 months or more had 

the lowest recidivism rate (30.7%). The same pattern held for other criminal 

history categories. Again, longer sentences result in older ages at release, 

and this, combined with criminal history differences, likely contributes to 

the apparent lack of overall association between length of imprisonment and 

recidivism. The relatively low number of offenders convicted of trafficking 

some types of drugs, particularly heroin and methamphetamine, makes this 

analysis more difficult to perform by drug type, but it appears that the general 

association between sentence length and recidivism, once criminal history is 

accounted for, was present across all drug types. 

In the coming months, the Commission will continue to issue additional 

reports based on its study of recidivism.

The federal drug trafficking offenders followed in this study recidivated (as 

measured by rearrest) at a rate of 50.0 percent. This rate is approximately 

equal to the recidivism rate of 49.3 percent measured among all types of federal 

offenders over the same period.62 It is markedly lower than the recidivism rate 

of 76.9 percent reported in another study following state drug offenders over a 

five-year follow-up period.63

In general, there were few clear distinctions among the five drug types 

studied in this report. One exception is that crack cocaine offenders recidivated 

at the highest rate (60.8%) of any drug type. Recidivism rates for other drug 

types were between 43.8 percent and 50.0 percent.

Of those drug trafficking offenders who recidivated, the median time from 

release to the first recidivism event was 25 months. Nearly one-fourth (23.8%) 

of drug trafficking offenders who recidivated had assault as their most serious 

charge. Other common most serious offenses were drug trafficking and public 

order offenses.

As might be expected from prior recidivism studies, the two indicators 

most strongly associated with recidivism among federal drug traffickers were 

criminal history and age. Offenders with no criminal history points recidivated 

at a rate of 35.4 percent, while offenders in the highest Criminal History 

Category recidivated at a rate of 77.1 percent. Age at release was also associated 

with recidivism. Drug trafficking offenders released prior to age 21 had the 

highest recidivism rate, 65.0 percent, while drug trafficking offenders over 

60 years old at the time of their release had the lowest recidivism rate of 16.5 

percent. 

The strong association of both criminal history and age with recidivism rates 

adds important caveats to some other findings. For example, drug trafficking 

offenders with higher base offense levels, which are largely determined by 

drug quantity and type, had lower recidivism rates than those offenders with 

lower base offense levels. However, the longer sentences received by those with 

higher base offense levels results in older ages at release, and this may be at 

least one factor explaining the link between base offense levels and recidivism.

Similarly, recidivism was higher among drug trafficking offenders convicted 

without a mandatory minimum penalty than among those convicted of a drug 

offense carrying a mandatory minimum penalty. Those convicted of a drug 

offense carrying a shorter mandatory minimum penalty had higher recidivism 

rates than those convicted of an offense carrying a longer penalty. Again, the 

Endnotes

96 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

1 The United States Sentencing Commission is an independent agency in the judicial branch 

of government. Established by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, its principal purposes are (1) to 

establish sentencing policies and practices for the federal courts, including guidelines regarding the 

appropriate form and severity of punishment for offenders convicted of federal crimes; (2) to advise 

and assist Congress, the federal judiciary, and the executive branch in the development of effective 

and efficient crime policy; and (3) to collect, analyze, research, and distribute a broad array of 

information on federal crime and sentencing issues. See 28 U.S.C. §§ 995(a)(14), (15), (20).

2 See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A Comprehensive 

Overview (March 2016), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/

research-publications/2016/recidivism_overview.pdf (hereinafter “Recidivism Overview Report”), 

at 3.

3

4

28 U.S.C. § 991(b)(2).

See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Supplementary Report On The Intitial Sentencing 

Guidelines And Policy Statements, at 41-44 (1987), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/

guidelines-manual/1987/manual-pdf/1987_Supplementary_Report_Initial_Sentencing_Guidelines.

pdf (hereinafter “Supplementary Report”).

5 See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Offenders Receiving Retroactive 

Sentencing Reductions: The 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment (2014), http://www.ussc.gov/

research/research-publications/recidivism-among-offenders-receiving-retroactive-sentencereductions-2007-crack-cocaine-amendment (hereinafter “Crack Cocaine Recidivism Report”). 

6 See, e.g., U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Final Priorities for Amendment Cycle, 79 Fed. Reg. 

49378, 49379 (Aug. 20, 2014) (“Pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 994(g), the Commission intends to consider 

the issue of reducing costs of incarceration and overcapacity of prisons, to the extent it is relevant to 

any identified priority.”).

7 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 3.

8 See, e.g., Supplementary Report, supra note 4; Crack Cocaine Recidivism Report, 

supra note 5; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Report To Congress: Federal Child Pornography 

Offenses 293-310 (2012), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/news/congressionaltestimony-and-reports/sex-offense-topics/201212-federal-child-pornography-offenses/Full_

Report_to_Congress.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, A Comparison Of The Federal Sentencing 

Guidelines Criminal History Category And The U.S. Parole Commission Salient Factor 

Score (2005), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/researchpublications/2005/20050104_Recidivism_Salient_Factor_Computation.pdf; U.s. Sentencing 

Comm’n, Recidivism And The “First Offender” (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/

pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2004/200405_Recidivism_First_Offender.

pdf; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Measuring Recidivism: The Criminal History Computation Of 

The Federal Sentencing Guidelines (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/

research-and-publications/research-publications/2004/200405_Recidivism_Criminal_History.pdf

(hereinafter “Measuring Recidivism Report”).

9 Each fiscal year begins on October 1 of the preceding calendar year. For example, fiscal 

year 2006 began on October 1, 2005, and ended on September 30, 2006. 

10 Because the offenders analyzed in this report were released over a decade ago, they 

were sentenced prior to several important legal developments. Nearly all were sentenced prior to 

the Supreme Court’s 2005 decision in Booker v. United States, 543 U.S. 220 (2005), which permitted 

sentencing courts to vary from guidelines-recommended sentences based upon policy disagreement 

with the guidelines. All were sentenced prior to the Commission’s 2014 amendment, which among 

other things, reduced the base offense levels associated with given drug quantities. See USSC, App. C, 

amend. 782 (effective Nov. 1, 2014).

Several other changes are specifically relevant to crack cocaine offenders. They were 

sentenced prior to the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, which reduced the mandatory minimum 

penalties associated with crack cocaine, the 2011 guideline amendment implementing that Act, 

and earlier guideline amendments that also generally had the effect of reducing penalties for crack 

cocaine offenses. See, e.g., USSG, App. C, amend. 706 (effective Nov. 1, 2007); amend. 711 (effective 

Nov. 1, 2007); amend. 715 (effective May 1, 2008); amend. 750 (effective Nov. 1, 2011). 

11 Drug type information was not available for 74 of the 10,888 offenders (the 63 sentenced 

in fiscal year 1991 and 11 sentenced in other years). These offenders are included in the discussion 

of all drug trafficking offenders, but are not included in the subsequent chapters.

12 This study uses rearrest as the primary measure of recidivism; however, it also reports 

data about reconviction and reincarceration in the Appendix. As expected, drug trafficking offenders 

were reconvicted (30.8%) and reincarcerated (23.4%) at lower rates than they were rearrested. See 

infra at 5-7. Unless otherwise specified, subsequent references to “recidivism” are based on rearrest 

rate. 

13 See Nat’l Institute Of Justice, U.S. Dept. Of Justice, Recidivism, https://web.archive.

org/web/20160120175242/http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/welcome.

aspx (Jan. 20, 2016).

14 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 7-8.

15 Many rearrests do not ultimately result in reconviction or reincarceration for reasons 

relating to procedural safeguards (for example, the suppression of evidence for an unconstitutional 

search or seizure), lack of sufficient evidence to convict or revoke, or prosecutorial or judicial 

resource limitations. To the extent that the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of relapse into 

criminal behavior, excluding events due to non-conviction or non-incarceration will result in 

underestimation of recidivism. Even the least restrictive measure, rearrest, does not account for 

the full extent of offender recidivism, as many crimes go unreported to police or, if reported, do 

not result in an arrest. For these reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several measures 

provides a more complete and nuanced picture of reoffending. The three measures overlap in 

some areas – meaning all offenders who were reconvicted or reincarcerated also were necessarily 

rearrested, too. Generally speaking, the measure of rearrest is larger than the measure of 

reconviction, which in turn is larger than the measure of reincarceration.

16 Revocations were not counted as reconvictions because the offenders were not convicted 

of a new offense (even if the basis for revocation was a “new law violation”). Offenders whose terms 

of supervision were revoked and who were sentenced to imprisonment were treated as having been 

reincarcerated.
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 97

(5) not later than the time of the sentencing hearing, the defendant has truthfully provided 

to the Government all information and evidence the defendant has concerning the offense or 

offenses that were part of the same course of conduct or of a common scheme or plan, but 

the fact that the defendant has no relevant or useful other information to provide or that the 

Government is already aware of the information shall not preclude a determination by the court 

that the defendant has complied with this requirement.

USSG §5C1.2 implements this statutory provision in the Guidelines Manual, and §2D1.1(b)(17) 

provides for a two-level reduction in offense level if an offender meets the safety valve criteria. The 

safety valve statute was enacted in 1994 and first implemented in the 1995 Guidelines Manual. Data 

about the application of the safety valve provision is available beginning in fiscal year 1995.

30 See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(e) (authorizing courts to impose sentences below a statutory 

minimum penalty when an offender provides substantial assistance to the government);

USSG §5K1.1 (implementing the same policy in the Guidelines Manual through a departure 

provision).

31 See USSG §5K1.1(a) (listing five factors to be considered in determining the extent of a 

downward departure for substantial assistance). 

32 See, e.g., id. §2D1.1(b)(1).

33 See also id. §2K2.4.

34 Id. §3B1.1

35 Id. §3B1.2. All offenders sentenced under §2D1.8 (Renting or Managing a Drug 

Establishment; Attempt or Conspiracy) are included in the mitigating role group.

36 See id. §4A1.1, 4A1.2.

37 See generally id. §4A. 

38 See generally id. Ch. 5

39 BOLs were grouped corresponding to the drug quantities associated with the mandatory 

minimum penalties in effect at that time: BOL 6-24 (no mandatory minimum penalty); BOL 26-30 

(five-year mandatory minimum penalty); and BOL 32-42 (ten-year mandatory minimum penalty). 

BOLs 40 and 42 were assigned based on drug type and quantity in the 1993 and earlier versions 

of the guidelines. From the 1994 version of the Guidelines Manual forward, the highest BOL based 

on drug quantity has been 38. Base Offense Level values reflect the BOL from the Drug Quantity 

Table (“DQT”) at USSG §2D1.1 prior to the application of the mitigating role cap or any adjustments 

under other guideline provisions. Offenders with BOLs determined by guideline provisions without 

reference to the DQT (e.g., §§2D1.1(a)(1), 2D1.2(a)(3)) and offenders missing information required 

to determine the BOL prior to the application of the mitigating role cap were excluded from the base 

offense level analysis. 

17 See U.S. Gov’t Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions 

Could Enhance The Completeness Of Records Used For Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

18 See id.

19 See 21 U.S.C. §§ 841, 960.

20 See id. § 856.

21 See id. § 843(b).

22 See id. § 851.

23 See USSG §2D1.1(c) (drug quantity table).

24 See USSG §§2D1.2 (Protected Locations), 2D1.5 (Continuing Criminal Enterprise), 2D1.6 

(Use of a Communication Facility), 2D1.8 (Rent/Manage Drug Establishment), 2D1.10 (Endangering 

Human Life), 2D1.14 (Narco-Terrorism).

25 See, e.g., 21 U.S.C. §§ 859, 860.

26 See, e.g., USSG §2D1.1(a).

27 See id. §2D1.1(c) (1998).

28 See 21 U.S.C. § 841(b)(1)(B)(iii) (1994).

29 18 U.S.C. § 3553(f) permits an offender to be sentenced below an otherwise applicable 

mandatory minimum penalty for drug offenses if the following criteria are met:

(1) the defendant does not have more than 1 criminal history point, as determined under the 

sentencing guidelines; 

(2) the defendant did not use violence or credible threats of violence or possess a firearm 

or other dangerous weapon (or induce another participant to do so) in connection with the 

offense; 

(3) the offense did not result in death or serious bodily injury to any person; 

(4) the defendant was not an organizer, leader, manager, or supervisor of others in the offense, 

as determined under the sentencing guidelines and was not engaged in a continuing criminal 

enterprise, as defined in section 408 of the Controlled Substances Act; and
Endnotes

98 Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders

40 Information about mandatory minimum penalties was unavailable for offenders 

sentenced in fiscal years 1991 and 1992. The data reported reflects offenders sentenced between 

fiscal years 1993 and 2006. This data includes only mandatory minimum penalties associated 

with drug trafficking convictions under drug statutes and does not include mandatory minimum 

penalties imposed under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) or from other sources.

41 The bulk of this group, both overall and for each drug type, was career offenders as 

defined by USSG §4B1.1; an additional four offenders were classified as armed career criminals 

because they were convicted under 18 U.S.C. § 924(e). Both groups are typically placed in CHC 

VI. See USSG §§4B1.1(b), 4B1.4(c)(2). Regardless of the CHC in which they were placed, this study 

treats them as a separate criminal history group.

42 In general, the Commission followed a ranking scheme used by the Bureau of Justice 

Statistics in prior recidivism research. See Matthew Durose, et al., Bureau Of Justice Statistics, 

U.S. Dept. Of Justice, Recidivism Of Prisoners Released In 30 States In 2005: Patterns From 

2005 To 2010 (2014), http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf. The primary 

modification made by the Commission for use in this project was to increase the relative seriousness 

of drug trafficking offenses from their position in the original ranking, which correspondingly 

decreased the relative importance of property offenses. 

43 Because the analysis focused on only the single most serious offense, an arrest for a more 

serious offense (such as assault or drug trafficking) is reported in lieu of any less serious offenses, 

such as drug possession. Accordingly, this data should not be interpreted to represent the overall 

frequency of the listed offenses among recidivism events.

44 This group was not limited to drug trafficking offenders, but also included those convicted 

of drug possession and other miscellaneous or unspecified drug offenses. See DuRose, et al., supra 

note 43.

45 See id.

46 Comparing only federal drug trafficking offenders released from prison results in a 

slightly higher rate (41.9%) than the overall rearrest rate (41.5%) of all federal drug trafficking 

offenders five years after release.

47 See USSG, Ch. 4, Pt. A, intro. comment.

48 See William Rhodes, et al., Abt Associates, Recidivism Of Offenders On Community 

Supervision (2012), at 12, available at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/bjs/grants/241018.

pdf.; Alfred Blumstein, et al., Delinquency Careers: Innocents, Desisters, and Persisters, in Crime 

And Justice: A Review Of Research 216 (1985) (discussing two major cohort studies in which 

the recidivism probability of youthful offenders rose with successive involvements with law 

enforcement); see also Paul Gendreau, et al., A Meta-Analysis Of The Predictors Of Adult Offender 

Recidivism: What Works!, 34 Criminology 575 (1996) (discussing a meta-analysis of 131 studies 

that found the strongest predictors of recidivism included criminogenic needs, criminal history, 

social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors).

49 USSG, Ch. 4, Pt. A, intro. comment.

50 See, e.g., Measuring Recidivism Report, supra note 8.

51 While both groups entered prison at about the same age, the median offender age at 

release for those with BOLs of between 6 and 24 is 32 years, as compared to a median release age of 

36 for those with BOLs of between 32 and 42.

52 This analysis includes offenders convicted of an offense carrying a drug mandatory 

minimum penalty, but does not require that the drug mandatory minimum penalty have actually 

been imposed, or, if imposed, have been fully served. A substantial proportion of the offenders in 

this analysis did not actually serve a full mandatory minimum penalty due to safety valve relief, 

substantial assistance, or a post-sentencing motion for sentence reduction under Federal Rule of 

Criminal Procedure 35(b). Due to the limited length of the study period, it is likely that most or all 

of those convicted of offenses carrying the longest drug mandatory minimum penalties (20 years or 

life) received some type of relief. Accordingly, caution should be used in inferring any links between 

mandatory minimum sentences and recidivism generally.

53 The association between sentence length and recidivism for sentences of less than one 

year was not analyzed due to an insufficient number of cases.

54 As CHC level rises within those sentenced to a given range of imprisonment, the overall 

recidivism rate begins at a higher starting point than the previous CHC level. For 12 to 23 month 

sentences, the recidivism rate for CHC II (63.9%) increases to CHC III (67.4%); CHC IV (79.5%); CHC 

V (81.8%); and CHC VI (100.0%). This same pattern also holds at almost every point, including for 

sentence lengths of 24 to 59 months, 60 to 119 months, and 120 months or more. The pattern is 

largely repeated in CHC VI, falling from 100.0 percent among those sentenced to between 12 and 23 

months, as compared to 72.7 percent for those sentenced to 120 months or more. There is, however, 

a slight increase from those sentenced to between 24 and 59 months to those sentenced to between 

60 and 119 months (79.0% and 79.4% respectively).

55 See Gendreau, supra note 48, at 575; David P. Farrington, Age and Crime, in Crime And 

Justice: An Annual Review Of Research vol. 7 (Michael Tonry & Norval Morris, eds., 1986); 

Jeffery T. Ulmer & Darrell Steffensmeier, The Age and Crime Relationship: Social Variation, Social 

Explanations, in The Nurture Versus Biosocial Debate In Criminology, at 378 (K. Beaver, et al., 

eds., 2014) (“It is now a truism that age is one of the strongest factors associated with criminal 

behavior.”).

56 As noted above, BOLs for drug trafficking offenses are assigned based on drug type and 

quantity. For example, in the 1998 Guidelines Manual, a BOL of 38 was assigned when an offender 

was accountable for 150 kilograms or more of powder cocaine. A BOL of 32 was assigned to at least 

5 kilograms but less than 15 kilograms of powder cocaine, while a BOL of 26 was assigned to at least 

500 grams but less than 2 kilograms of powder cocaine. See USSG §2D1.1(c)(1), (4), (7) (1998).

57 As noted above, BOLs for drug trafficking offenses are assigned based on drug type and 

quantity. For example, in the 1998 Guidelines Manual, a BOL of 38 was assigned when an offender 

was accountable for 1.5 kilograms or more of crack cocaine. A BOL of 32 was assigned to at least 50 

grams but less than 150 grams of crack cocaine, while a BOL of 26 was assigned to at least 5 grams 

but less than 20 grams of crack cocaine. See USSG §2D1.1(c)(1), (4), (7) (1998).
Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders 99

58 As noted above, BOLs for drug trafficking offenses are assigned based on drug type and 

quantity. For example, in the 1998 Guidelines Manual, a BOL of 38 was assigned when an offender 

was accountable for 30 kilograms or more of heroin. A BOL of 32 was assigned to at least 1 kilogram 

but less than 3 kilograms of heroin, while a BOL of 26 was assigned to at least 100 grams but less 

than 400 grams of heroin. See USSG §2D1.1(c)(1), (4), (7) (1998).

59 Only six heroin offenders were convicted of a mandatory minimum offense carrying a 

20-year penalty. While these offenders had a recidivism rate of 0.0 percent, the small number makes 

comparisons to this group unreliable.

60 As noted above, BOLs for drug trafficking offenses are assigned based on drug type and 

quantity. For example, in the 1998 Guidelines Manual, a BOL of 38 was assigned when an offender 

was accountable for 30,000 kilograms or more of marijuana. A BOL of 32 was assigned to at least 

1,000 kilograms but less than 3,000 kilograms of marijuana, while a BOL of 26 was assigned to 

at least 100 kilograms but less than 400 kilograms of marijuana. See USSG §2D1.1(c)(1), (4), (7) 

(1998).

61 As noted above, BOLs for drug trafficking offenses are assigned based on drug type 

and quantity. For example, in the 1998 Guidelines Manual, a BOL of 38 was assigned when an 

offender was accountable for 15 kilograms or more of methamphetamine (or 3 kilograms or more 

of “methamphetamine (actual),” for use in cases where the methamphetamine was not mixed with 

another substance). A BOL of 32 was assigned to at least 500 grams but less than 1.5 kilograms of 

methamphetamine (or between 100 and 300 grams of methamphetamine (actual)), while a BOL 

of 26 was assigned to at least 50 grams but less than 200 grams of methamphetamine (or between 

10 and 40 grams of methamphetamine (actual)). See USSG §2D1.1(c)(1), (4), (7) & n. B to Drug 

Quantity Table (1998).

62 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at A-1.

63 See DuRose, et al., supra note 42 and accompanying text.

APPENDIX
A-2 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Primary Drug Type

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

All Drugs 10,888 50.0% 30.8% 23.4%

Powder Cocaine 2,350 43.8% 25.7% 18.5%

Crack Cocaine 2,953 60.8% 37.6% 29.4%

Heroin 590 47.1% 29.3% 21.0%

Marijuana 2,570 50.0% 30.6% 24.2%

Methamphetamine 1,826 44.8% 29.5% 21.8%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-3
A-4 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1991 63 0.6%1992 120 1.1%1993 133 1.2%1994 135 1.2%1995 178 1.6%1996 261 2.4%1997 400 3.7%1998 508 4.7%1999 577 5.3%2000 815 7.5%2001 1,169 10.7%2002 1,496 13.7%2003 2,110 19.4%2004 1,763 16.2%2005 1,062 9.8%2006 98 0.9%

TOTAL 10,888 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

All Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tr
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

All Drug Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 10,888 50.0% 30.8% 23.4%

Criminal History Points

0 3,958 35.4% 20.3% 14.5%

1 1,497 48.1% 28.5% 20.1%

2 649 54.7% 32.2% 21.3%

3 927 50.3% 29.6% 22.3%

4 717 55.4% 34.7% 25.9%

5 544 59.9% 37.9% 30.3%

6 640 63.1% 39.8% 32.0%

7 319 65.2% 37.6% 30.1%

8 330 66.4% 42.7% 33.6%

9 288 67.7% 45.8% 38.2%

10 192 73.4% 47.9% 39.1%

More than 10 797 74.9% 55.2% 46.7%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 5,453 39.0% 22.6% 16.1%

CHC II 1,567 52.4% 30.6% 21.8%

CHC III 1,852 59.5% 37.5% 29.5%

CHC IV 828 68.1% 43.6% 35.1%

CHC V 412 73.8% 52.9% 45.6%

CHC VI 376 77.1% 56.9% 47.3%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 348 62.6% 41.1% 32.8%

Base Offense Level 

6 to 24 2,748 56.8% 36.4% 28.1%

26 to 30 4,018 51.5% 31.9% 23.7%

32 to 42 4,004 44.1% 26.0% 19.8%

A-6 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

All Drug Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

None 4,006 54.7% 35.0% 26.3%

12 Months 57 64.9% 42.1% 36.8%

60 Months 3,191 50.6% 30.8% 23.3%

120 Months 3,313 44.7% 26.4% 20.2%

240 Months 119 37.0% 23.5% 18.5%

Life 11 81.8% 63.6% 54.6%

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 9,335 49.9% 30.6% 23.1%

Weapon Enhancement 1,553 50.9% 32.3% 24.9%

Safety Valve (All Offenders)

No Safety Valve 6,779 55.7% 35.3% 27.5%

Safety Valve Applied 3,626 40.5% 23.5% 16.5%

Safety Valve (CHC I Offenders)

No Safety Valve 1,747 38.3% 22.7% 16.5%

Safety Valve Applied 3,533 39.9% 23.1% 16.2%

Aggravating Role

No Aggravating Role Adjustment 10,209 50.8% 31.3% 23.8%

Aggravating Role Adjustment Applied 679 39.3% 23.6% 17.5%

Mitigating Role

No Mitigating Role Adjustment 8,791 50.5% 31.1% 23.6%

Mitigating Role/USSG §2D1.8 Applied 2,097 48.0% 29.8% 22.3%

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 6,131 50.0% 30.4% 22.9%

Above Range 26 50.0% 38.5% 38.5%

Substantial Assistance (USSG §5K1.1) 3,486 50.1% 31.0% 23.3%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 246 61.8% 41.1% 33.3%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 726 47.3% 30.0% 23.0%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-7
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

All Drug Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction 

%

Reincarceration 

%

Length of Imprisonment

Up to 6 Months 175 40.6% 24.6% 17.1%

6 to 11 Months 169 55.6% 33.7% 24.9%

12 to 23 Months 998 52.8% 32.1% 25.5%

24 to 59 Months 3,784 50.2% 31.5% 24.2%

60 to 120 Months 3,202 52.2% 32.0% 24.1%

More than 120 Months 1,954 47.8% 28.8% 23.0%

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21 618 69.7% 48.1% 38.8%

21 to 25 2,540 62.2% 40.4% 31.3%

26 to 30 2,523 55.1% 33.5% 24.9%

31 to 35 1,748 46.3% 28.3% 21.3%

36 to 40 1,337 44.8% 25.8% 18.8%

41 to 50 1,453 33.6% 18.2% 13.5%

51 to 60 536 23.5% 13.3% 10.3%

Older than 60 119 13.5% 8.4% 5.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 137 65.0% 43.1% 30.7%

21 to 25 1,335 64.8% 44.8% 34.9%

26 to 30 2,204 59.9% 37.9% 28.9%

31 to 35 2,329 54.3% 32.9% 24.7%

36 to 40 1,706 47.7% 28.0% 21.0%

41 to 50 2,038 40.3% 23.3% 17.3%

51 to 60 876 25.9% 13.5% 11.0%

Older than 60 249 16.5% 10.0% 6.8%

A-8 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
49.9% 50.9% 49.9% 51.5% 

0.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Neither

(n=9,335)

SOC/924(c)

(n=1,553)

Weapon	SOC	Not

Applied

(n=9,652)

Weapon	SOC	Applied

(n=1,236)

100.0%

SOC

Application

Weapon

Enhancement

SOURCE:	U.S.	Sentencing	Commission’s	2005	Recidivism	Release	Cohort	Datafile,	RECID05_OFFUPDT.	The	Commission	excluded	cases	from	each	analysis	that	were	missi

analysis.	The	weapon	enhancement	analysis	includes	offenders	with	a	conviction	under	18	U.S.C.	§ 924(c)	and/or	the	application	of	a	weapon	enhancement	under	the	gui

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancements

All Drug Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tr
A-10 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1992 49 2.1%

1993 37 1.6%

1994 35 1.5%

1995 52 2.2%

1996 43 1.8%

1997 95 4.0%

1998 90 3.8%

1999 114 4.9%2000 157 6.7%2001 278 11.8%2002 390 16.6%2003 498 21.2%2004 313 13.3%2005 180 7.7%2006 19 0.8%

TOTAL 2,350 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 2,350 43.8% 25.7% 18.5%

Criminal History Points

0 1,012 30.7% 17.9% 11.8%

1 312 46.8% 29.2% 22.1%

2 140 50.7% 30.0% 17.9%

3 205 46.3% 23.9% 16.6%

4 136 55.9% 33.1% 22.1%

5 105 54.3% 23.8% 19.1%

6 118 59.3% 37.3% 30.5%

7 57 66.7% 36.8% 29.8%

8 69 60.9% 37.7% 30.4%

9 50 54.0% 30.0% 22.0%

10 30 63.3% 46.7% 40.0%

More than 10 109 67.0% 44.0% 35.8%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 1,321 34.8% 20.6% 14.3%

CHC II 340 48.5% 26.5% 17.1%

CHC III 355 56.6% 32.1% 23.9%

CHC IV 146 65.8% 38.4% 30.8%

CHC V 61 60.7% 47.5% 39.3%

CHC VI 42 73.8% 50.0% 40.5%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 69 50.7% 26.1% 21.7%

Base Offense Level 

6 to 24 422 59.0% 36.7% 25.6%

26 to 30 948 44.8% 26.5% 18.8%

32 to 42 945 36.0% 19.8% 14.9%

A-12 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

None 622 52.3% 33.0% 22.7%

12 Months 7 42.9% 14.3% 14.3%

60 Months 785 44.5% 26.0% 18.7%

120 Months 857 38.2% 21.1% 15.9%

240 Months 26 23.1% 11.5% 7.7%

Life 2 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 2,051 43.0% 25.1% 17.8%

Weapon Enhancement 299 49.5% 29.4% 23.1%

Safety Valve (All Offenders)

No Safety Valve 1,355 49.2% 28.8% 21.5%

Safety Valve Applied 872 36.9% 22.4% 14.9%

Safety Valve (CHC I Offenders)

No Safety Valve 416 32.2% 19.5% 14.9%

Safety Valve Applied 854 36.7% 22.0% 14.5%

Aggravating Role

No Aggravating Role Adjustment 2,165 44.2% 26.0% 18.9%

Aggravating Role Adjustment Applied 185 38.9% 21.6% 14.6%

Mitigating Role

No Mitigating Role Adjustment 1,825 44.2% 25.4% 18.4%

Mitigating Role/USSG §2D1.8 Applied 525 42.3% 26.5% 18.9%

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 1,355 42.2% 24.1% 17.3%

Above Range 6 83.3% 83.3% 83.3%

Substantial Assistance (USSG §5K1.1) 755 46.5% 27.7% 19.9%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 29 58.6% 37.9% 20.7%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 138 44.2% 29.0% 23.2%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-13
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction 

%

Reincarceration 

%

Length of Imprisonment

Up to 6 Months 21 47.6% 28.6% 14.3%

6 to 11 Months 24 41.7% 12.5% 4.2%

12 to 23 Months 162 54.9% 32.1% 23.5%

24 to 59 Months 886 44.4% 27.3% 19.9%

60 to 120 Months 709 42.6% 25.4% 18.6%

More than 120 Months 435 39.8% 20.0% 16.3%

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21 90 71.1% 43.3% 36.7%

21 to 25 440 55.9% 34.8% 25.7%

26 to 30 576 49.1% 29.7% 21.0%

31 to 35 451 38.6% 23.1% 16.0%

36 to 40 330 40.6% 21.8% 15.5%

41 to 50 306 32.7% 15.4% 11.1%

51 to 60 120 20.0% 11.7% 9.2%

Older than 60 31 6.5% 3.2% 0.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 14 78.6% 42.9% 28.6%

21 to 25 226 63.3% 39.8% 30.5%

26 to 30 430 53.0% 34.7% 25.6%

31 to 35 527 46.1% 26.9% 18.2%

36 to 40 437 41.0% 23.1% 16.0%

41 to 50 446 38.1% 19.5% 15.0%

51 to 60 192 22.4% 11.5% 8.9%

Older than 60 72 13.9% 5.6% 2.8%

A-14 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
43.0%

49.5%

43.1%

49.6%

0.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Neither

(n=2,051)

SOC/924(c)

(n=299)

Weapon	SOC	Not

Applied

(n=2,112)

Weapon	SOC	Applied

(n=238)

100.0%

SOC

Application

Weapon

Enhancement

SOURCE:	U.S.	Sentencing	Commission’s	2005	Recidivism	Release	Cohort	Datafile,	RECID05_OFFUPDT.	The	Commission	excluded	cases	from	each	analysis	that	were	miss

analysis.	The	weapon	enhancement	analysis	includes	offenders	with	a	conviction	under	18	U.S.C.	§ 924(c)	and/or	the	application	of	a	weapon	enhancement	under	the	gu

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancements

Powder Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
A-16 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1992 41 1.4%

1993 69 2.3%

1994 77 2.6%

1995 88 3.0%

1996 158 5.4%1997 210 7.1%1998 239 8.1%1999 261 8.8%2000 333 11.3%2001 423 14.3%2002 369 12.5%2003 373 12.6%2004 212 7.2%2005 91 3.1%

2006 9 0.3%

TOTAL 2,953 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 2,953 60.8% 37.6% 29.4%

Criminal History Points

0 602 42.7% 22.9% 18.1%

1 352 51.7% 28.4% 19.6%

2 192 58.9% 32.8% 24.5%

3 258 59.7% 36.1% 24.0%

4 236 58.9% 39.4% 29.2%

5 196 65.3% 39.3% 33.2%

6 271 65.7% 41.7% 34.3%

7 118 76.3% 39.8% 32.2%

8 139 66.9% 43.2% 33.1%

9 138 73.9% 47.8% 39.9%

10 94 73.4% 45.7% 36.2%

More than 10 350 81.7% 60.9% 50.9%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 953 46.1% 25.0% 18.7%

CHC II 443 60.1% 34.5% 23.9%

CHC III 675 63.3% 40.2% 32.7%

CHC IV 349 73.9% 45.3% 36.4%

CHC V 190 76.3% 55.8% 46.8%

CHC VI 170 84.1% 59.4% 49.4%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 149 68.5% 48.3% 36.2%

Base Offense Level 

6 to 24 298 70.8% 48.3% 37.9%

26 to 30 981 67.9% 42.8% 31.7%

32 to 42 1,654 54.8% 32.5% 26.5%

A-18 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

None 635 65.2% 41.6% 32.1%

12 Months 26 76.9% 50.0% 42.3%

60 Months 871 65.8% 41.0% 31.3%

120 Months 1,314 55.5% 33.1% 26.6%

240 Months 56 58.9% 39.3% 32.1%

Life 5 100.0% 100.0% 80.0%

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 2,372 61.5% 37.6% 29.6%

Weapon Enhancement 581 58.0% 37.4% 28.6%

Safety Valve (All Offenders)

No Safety Valve 2,193 64.7% 41.3% 32.7%

Safety Valve Applied 567 49.0% 26.1% 19.2%

Safety Valve (CHC I Offenders)

No Safety Valve 348 45.4% 26.2% 20.1%

Safety Valve Applied 544 48.4% 25.6% 18.8%

Aggravating Role

No Aggravating Role Adjustment 2,822 61.5% 38.2% 29.8%

Aggravating Role Adjustment Applied 131 45.8% 23.7% 20.6%

Mitigating Role

No Mitigating Role Adjustment 2,697 61.3% 38.0% 29.9%

Mitigating Role/USSG §2D1.8 Applied 256 55.5% 32.4% 24.6%

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 1,645 60.1% 37.1% 28.6%

Above Range 5 60.0% 40.0% 40.0%

Substantial Assistance (USSG §5K1.1) 1,034 61.4% 37.5% 30.0%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 8 75.0% 37.5% 37.5%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 187 60.4% 38.0% 27.3%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-19
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction 

%

Reincarceration 

%

Length of Imprisonment

Up to 6 Months 4 25.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6 to 11 Months 3 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%

12 to 23 Months 92 62.0% 40.2% 28.3%

24 to 59 Months 663 60.5% 36.7% 28.5%

60 to 120 Months 1,173 65.7% 40.7% 31.3%

More than 120 Months 960 56.2% 35.1% 28.5%

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21 215 76.7% 54.0% 44.7%

21 to 25 959 69.6% 44.8% 36.1%

26 to 30 823 60.0% 35.8% 27.3%

31 to 35 386 54.9% 30.8% 24.4%

36 to 40 243 55.6% 34.2% 22.2%

41 to 50 236 44.1% 24.6% 19.9%

51 to 60 77 20.8% 9.1% 7.8%

Older than 60 13 15.4% 7.7% 0.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 8 62.5% 37.5% 25.0%

21 to 25 279 81.0% 55.9% 45.2%

26 to 30 768 68.4% 44.3% 35.3%

31 to 35 823 62.5% 37.3% 29.2%

36 to 40 474 54.2% 32.5% 24.3%

41 to 50 412 52.4% 29.9% 22.1%

51 to 60 150 30.7% 14.7% 13.3%

Older than 60 38 15.8% 10.5% 7.9%

A-20 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
61.5% 58.0% 61.2% 58.2% 

0.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Neither

(n=2,372)

SOC/924(c)

(n=581)

Weapon	SOC	Not

Applied

(n=2,520)

Weapon	SOC	Applied

(n=433)

SOC

Application

Weapon

Enhancement

SOURCE:	U.S.	Sentencing	Commission’s	2005	Recidivism	Release	Cohort	Datafile,	RECID05_OFFUPDT.	The	Commission	excluded	cases	from	each	analysis	that	were	miss

analysis.	The	weapon	enhancement	analysis	includes	offenders	with	a	conviction	under	18	U.S.C.	§ 924(c)	and/or	the	application	of	a	weapon	enhancement	under	the	gu

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancements

Crack Cocaine Trafficking Offenders

100.0%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
A-22 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1992 5 0.9%1993 9 1.5%1994 9 1.5%1995 4 0.7%1996 11 1.9%

1997 12 2.0%

1998 26 4.4%

1999 27 4.6%

2000 47 8.0%

2001 49 8.3%

2002 88 14.9%2003 106 18.0%2004 114 19.3%2005 73 12.4%2006 10 1.7%

TOTAL 590 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Heroin Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Heroin Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 590 47.1% 29.3% 21.0%

Criminal History Points

0 252 31.4% 16.3% 11.1%

1 61 55.7% 37.7% 21.3%

2 29 51.7% 34.5% 13.8%

3 43 44.2% 27.9% 20.9%

4 24 41.7% 29.2% 20.8%

5 27 66.7% 40.7% 18.5%

6 21 47.6% 33.3% 28.6%

7 16 68.8% 31.3% 25.0%

8 18 72.2% 55.6% 33.3%

9 18 66.7% 50.0% 44.4%

10 10 80.0% 40.0% 30.0%

More than 10 68 69.1% 50.0% 48.5%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 314 36.3% 20.4% 13.1%

CHC II 70 47.1% 30.0% 18.6%

CHC III 68 54.4% 36.8% 23.5%

CHC IV 46 73.9% 47.8% 37.0%

CHC V 21 71.4% 38.1% 33.3%

CHC VI 31 71.0% 54.8% 54.8%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 36 61.1% 41.7% 36.1%

Base Offense Level 

6 to 24 150 57.3% 38.0% 30.0%

26 to 30 239 48.1% 29.7% 20.1%

32 to 42 183 37.7% 20.8% 14.8%

A-24 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Heroin Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

None 233 52.4% 36.5% 27.0%

12 Months 3 66.7% 66.7% 66.7%

60 Months 185 44.3% 24.9% 16.2%

120 Months 154 42.9% 24.0% 16.9%

240 Months 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Life 3 66.7% 0.0% 0.0%

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 523 46.9% 29.3% 21.2%

Weapon Enhancement 67 49.3% 29.9% 19.4%

Safety Valve (All Offenders)

No Safety Valve 340 52.1% 34.1% 25.6%

Safety Valve Applied 224 37.1% 21.0% 13.4%

Safety Valve (CHC I Offenders)

No Safety Valve 90 34.4% 18.9% 12.2%

Safety Valve Applied 218 36.7% 21.1% 13.3%

Aggravating Role

No Aggravating Role Adjustment 548 47.3% 29.4% 21.2%

Aggravating Role Adjustment Applied 42 45.2% 28.6% 19.1%

Mitigating Role

No Mitigating Role Adjustment 415 50.8% 30.4% 22.7%

Mitigating Role/USSG §2D1.8 Applied 175 38.3% 26.9% 17.1%

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 350 47.4% 28.0% 18.6%

Above Range 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Substantial Assistance (USSG §5K1.1) 151 49.0% 31.1% 21.9%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 6 83.3% 66.7% 66.7%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 61 39.3% 29.5% 27.9%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-25
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Heroin Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction 

%

Reincarceration 

%

Length of Imprisonment

Up to 6 Months 9 33.3% 22.2% 22.2%

6 to 11 Months 11 54.6% 45.5% 36.4%

12 to 23 Months 50 52.0% 36.0% 28.0%

24 to 59 Months 228 47.4% 31.6% 23.3%

60 to 120 Months 165 46.7% 24.2% 15.8%

More than 120 Months 81 49.4% 30.9% 23.5%

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21 27 51.9% 25.9% 22.2%

21 to 25 125 52.0% 37.6% 25.6%

26 to 30 130 51.5% 29.2% 18.5%

31 to 35 83 55.4% 32.5% 26.5%

36 to 40 78 42.3% 30.8% 23.1%

41 to 50 99 41.4% 21.2% 15.2%

51 to 60 38 29.0% 21.1% 18.4%

Older than 60 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 3 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%

21 to 25 86 52.3% 37.2% 27.9%

26 to 30 108 47.2% 32.4% 20.4%

31 to 35 108 51.9% 29.6% 18.5%

36 to 40 84 53.6% 32.1% 25.0%

41 to 50 122 45.1% 24.6% 18.9%

51 to 60 59 37.3% 23.7% 22.0%

Older than 60 19 10.5% 10.5% 5.3%

A-26 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
46.9% 49.3% 47.0% 48.2% 

0.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Neither

(n=523)

SOC/924(c)

(n=67)

Weapon	SOC	Not

Applied

(n=534)

Weapon	SOC	Applied

(n=56)

SOC

Application

Weapon

Enhancement

SOURCE:	U.S.	Sentencing	Commission’s	2005	Recidivism	Release	Cohort	Datafile,	RECID05_OFFUPDT.	The	Commission	excluded	cases	from	each	analysis	that	were	missi

analysis.	The	weapon	enhancement	analysis	includes	offenders	with	a	conviction	under	18	U.S.C.	§ 924(c)	and/or	the	application	of	a	weapon	enhancement	under	the	gui

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancements

Heroin Trafficking Offenders

100.0%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
A-28 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1992 13 0.5%

1993 9 0.4%1994 8 0.3%1995 12 0.5%

1996 15 0.6%

1997 31 1.2%

1998 55 2.1%

1999 50 2.0%

2000 109 4.2%2001 202 7.9%2002 268 10.4%2003 527 20.5%2004 733 28.5%2005 499 19.4%2006 39 1.5%

TOTAL 2,570 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 2,570 50.0% 30.6% 24.2%

Criminal History Points

0 1,163 38.6% 21.8% 16.4%

1 373 50.4% 31.9% 23.3%

2 137 62.0% 34.3% 20.4%

3 217 53.5% 32.3% 29.5%

4 155 58.1% 36.8% 31.0%

5 112 61.6% 46.4% 37.5%

6 126 65.1% 36.5% 28.6%

7 56 64.3% 44.6% 35.7%

8 44 65.9% 45.5% 40.9%

9 32 71.9% 50.0% 43.8%

10 24 79.2% 50.0% 41.7%

More than 10 124 76.6% 54.8% 49.2%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 1,535 41.5% 24.2% 18.1%

CHC II 357 56.6% 32.8% 25.8%

CHC III 387 62.0% 40.1% 32.6%

CHC IV 120 65.0% 47.5% 40.0%

CHC V 70 78.6% 52.9% 51.4%

CHC VI 59 79.7% 57.6% 47.5%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 38 65.8% 39.5% 34.2%

Base Offense Level 

6 to 24 1,441 54.1% 33.9% 27.2%

26 to 30 895 46.5% 27.4% 21.8%

32 to 42 226 38.5% 23.0% 14.6%

A-30 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

None 1,517 55.5% 34.7% 27.8%

12 Months 5 60.0% 40.0% 40.0%

60 Months 781 44.6% 26.5% 20.7%

120 Months 248 35.1% 19.4% 13.3%

240 Months 6 16.7% 0.0% 0.0%

Life 0 - - -

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 2,353 50.3% 30.8% 24.4%

Weapon Enhancement 217 47.0% 29.0% 21.7%

Safety Valve (All Offenders)

No Safety Valve 1,468 55.6% 34.6% 28.3%

Safety Valve Applied 1,067 42.6% 25.3% 18.9%

Safety Valve (CHC I Offenders)

No Safety Valve 476 41.4% 23.5% 17.7%

Safety Valve Applied 1,042 41.8% 24.7% 18.5%

Aggravating Role

No Aggravating Role Adjustment 2,387 50.7% 30.9% 24.6%

Aggravating Role Adjustment Applied 183 40.4% 26.8% 19.1%

Mitigating Role

No Mitigating Role Adjustment 1,831 47.8% 29.3% 23.2%

Mitigating Role/USSG §2D1.8 Applied 739 55.4% 33.8% 26.5%

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 1,611 51.3% 31.2% 24.8%

Above Range 7 42.9% 28.6% 28.6%

Substantial Assistance (USSG §5K1.1) 569 44.3% 26.0% 19.7%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 181 61.9% 43.1% 35.9%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 155 45.2% 28.4% 21.3%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-31
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction 

%

Reincarceration 

%

Length of Imprisonment

Up to 6 Months 113 36.3% 20.4% 15.9%

6 to 11 Months 97 62.9% 40.2% 32.0%

12 to 23 Months 518 52.5% 30.3% 25.7%

24 to 59 Months 1,025 54.5% 34.7% 28.8%

60 to 120 Months 446 45.3% 27.1% 20.6%

More than 120 Months 129 45.0% 24.0% 17.1%

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21 195 65.1% 46.2% 38.0%

21 to 25 568 61.4% 39.4% 30.6%

26 to 30 521 57.0% 34.6% 27.3%

31 to 35 377 47.8% 29.2% 23.3%

36 to 40 282 47.2% 24.5% 20.2%

41 to 50 394 33.3% 18.5% 14.0%

51 to 60 187 29.4% 17.7% 13.4%

Older than 60 43 23.3% 14.0% 11.6%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 94 63.8% 45.7% 35.1%

21 to 25 460 62.4% 43.9% 34.6%

26 to 30 493 59.0% 33.3% 26.4%

31 to 35 428 52.8% 31.8% 25.9%

36 to 40 301 49.8% 28.9% 23.3%

41 to 50 471 37.2% 21.7% 16.6%

51 to 60 250 30.0% 16.0% 12.4%

Older than 60 70 25.7% 15.7% 11.4%

A-32 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
50.3% 47.0% 50.0% 50.3% 

0.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Neither

(n=2,353)

SOC/924(c)

(n=217)

Weapon	SOC	Not

Applied

(n=2,383)

Weapon	SOC	Applied

(n=187)

100.0%

SOC

Application

Weapon

Enhancement

SOURCE:	U.S.	Sentencing	Commission’s	2005	Recidivism	Release	Cohort	Datafile,	RECID05_OFFUPDT.	The	Commission	excluded	cases	from	each	analysis	that	were	missin

analysis.	The	weapon	enhancement	analysis	includes	offenders	with	a	conviction	under	18	U.S.C.	§ 924(c)	and/or	the	application	of	a	weapon	enhancement	under	the	guid

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancements

Marijuana Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
A-34 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1992 9 0.5%1993 6 0.3%1994 6 0.3%1995 21 1.2%

1996 32 1.8%

1997 46 2.5%

1998 91 5.0%

1999 117 6.4%2000 153 8.4%2001 195 10.7%2002 308 16.9%2003 443 24.3%2004 282 15.4%2005 110 6.0%2006 7 0.4%

TOTAL 1,826 100.0%

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. 

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 1,826 44.8% 29.5% 21.8%

Criminal History Points

0 642 34.6% 23.1% 15.6%

1 314 40.8% 22.9% 16.6%

2 122 47.5% 32.0% 23.8%

3 151 43.1% 25.8% 19.9%

4 141 48.2% 26.2% 19.2%

5 85 51.8% 37.7% 30.6%

6 83 61.5% 44.6% 33.7%

7 60 46.7% 31.7% 25.0%

8 41 65.9% 41.5% 31.7%

9 41 65.9% 53.7% 46.3%

10 30 76.7% 56.7% 46.7%

More than 10 112 67.0% 51.8% 40.2%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 957 36.6% 23.1% 15.9%

CHC II 275 45.5% 29.1% 21.8%

CHC III 304 53.0% 33.9% 26.0%

CHC IV 135 57.0% 40.7% 32.6%

CHC V 60 80.0% 56.7% 46.7%

CHC VI 64 60.9% 51.6% 42.2%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 30 56.7% 40.0% 26.7%

Base Offense Level 

6 to 24 213 63.4% 44.1% 33.3%

26 to 30 731 48.8% 32.6% 25.3%

32 to 42 849 36.9% 23.0% 15.7%

A-36 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Drug Mandatory Minimum Penalty

None 529 55.2% 37.8% 27.0%

12 Months 10 50.0% 40.0% 30.0%

60 Months 547 46.4% 30.2% 23.6%

120 Months 707 36.9% 23.2% 16.8%

240 Months 23 13.0% 13.0% 8.7%

Life 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 1,496 44.8% 29.3% 21.2%

Weapon Enhancement 330 44.9% 30.3% 24.6%

Safety Valve (All Offenders)

No Safety Valve 1,131 50.1% 33.6% 25.3%

Safety Valve Applied 660 36.5% 22.6% 15.9%

Safety Valve (CHC I Offenders)

No Safety Valve 293 38.2% 25.3% 16.4%

Safety Valve Applied 645 36.1% 22.2% 15.5%

Aggravating Role

No Aggravating Role Adjustment 1,754 45.2% 29.7% 21.8%

Aggravating Role Adjustment Applied 72 34.7% 25.0% 22.2%

Mitigating Role

No Mitigating Role Adjustment 1,491 45.3% 29.9% 21.9%

Mitigating Role/USSG §2D1.8 Applied 335 42.7% 27.8% 21.5%

Position Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 837 45.4% 29.2% 21.9%

Above Range 3 66.7% 33.3% 33.3%

Substantial Assistance (USSG §5K1.1) 786 45.3% 31.0% 22.4%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 13 30.8% 15.4% 7.7%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 140 41.4% 25.0% 18.6%

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-37
Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. Such gaps 

occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence of reconviction and 

reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of Records Used for Employment-Related Background 

Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. 

N

Rearrest 

%

Reconviction 

%

Reincarceration 

%

Length of Imprisonment

Up to 6 Months 10 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%

6 to 11 Months 21 52.4% 23.8% 14.3%

12 to 23 Months 111 44.1% 34.2% 27.0%

24 to 59 Months 724 45.3% 28.9% 21.6%

60 to 120 Months 631 46.4% 29.8% 23.1%

More than 120 Months 266 36.8% 25.2% 18.4%

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 21 65 73.9% 56.9% 40.0%

21 to 25 314 58.3% 40.8% 31.2%

26 to 30 326 55.5% 36.2% 27.9%

31 to 35 339 45.1% 32.5% 23.9%

36 to 40 338 41.1% 24.3% 17.2%

41 to 50 349 27.8% 16.1% 11.5%

51 to 60 81 18.5% 7.4% 4.9%

Older than 60 13 7.7% 7.7% 0.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 10 60.0% 50.0% 20.0%

21 to 25 196 59.2% 45.4% 34.2%

26 to 30 267 59.6% 39.0% 29.6%

31 to 35 326 52.5% 36.5% 27.9%

36 to 40 338 46.5% 28.1% 21.0%

41 to 50 491 35.6% 22.0% 15.3%

51 to 60 164 18.3% 9.8% 7.3%

Older than 60 33 9.1% 6.1% 3.0%

A-38 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
44.8% 44.9% 44.8% 44.6% 

0.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Neither

(n=1,496)

SOC/924(c)

(n=330)

Weapon	SOC	Not

Applied

(n=1,546)

Weapon	SOC	Applied

(n=280)

100.0%

SOC

Application

Weapon

Enhancement

SOURCE:	U.S.	Sentencing	Commission’s	2005	Recidivism	Release	Cohort	Datafile,	RECID05_OFFUPDT.	The	Commission	excluded	cases	from	each	analysis	that	were	miss

analysis.	The	weapon	enhancement	analysis	includes	offenders	with	a	conviction	under	18	U.S.C.	§ 924(c)	and/or	the	application	of	a	weapon	enhancement	under	the	gu

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancements

Methamphetamine Trafficking Offenders

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Tra
A-40 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix
Number of Offenders in Each Length of Imprisonment and Criminal History Category Grouping

By Primary Drug Type

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. The numbers in the table represent the total number of offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders rearrested. 

Length of Imprisonment

12 to 23 

Months

24 to 59 

Months

60 to 119

Months

120 Months 

or More

All Drugs Combined N N N N

Criminal History Category

CHC I 641 2,319 1,182 560

CHC II 166 468 525 304

CHC III 135 539 701 411

CHC IV 39 220 353 199

CHC V 11 99 169 127

CHC VI 5 95 155 117

Powder Cocaine N N N N

Criminal History Category

CHC I 100 607 320 175

CHC II 30 98 126 69

CHC III 21 105 131 81

CHC IV 7 43 60 32

CHC V 2 12 32 14

CHC VI 1 14 13 14

Crack Cocaine N N N N

Criminal History Category

CHC I 41 324 331 210

CHC II 18 89 192 139

CHC III 20 120 301 229

CHC IV 9 63 156 120

CHC V 2 30 73 81

CHC VI 2 27 71 68

Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix | A-41
Number of Offenders in Each Length of Imprisonment and Criminal History Category Grouping

By Primary Drug Type

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. For information about a given analysis, see the corresponding figure in the body of this 

report. The numbers in the table represent the total number of offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders rearrested. 

Length of Imprisonment

12 to 23 

Months

24 to 59 

Months

60 to 119

Months

120 Months 

or More

Heroin N N N N

Criminal History Category

CHC I 31 150 59 21

CHC II 8 26 21 7

CHC III 5 18 32 11

CHC IV 4 12 21 8

CHC V 1 7 9 4

CHC VI 1 9 13 7

Marijuana N N N N

Criminal History Category

CHC I 345 589 185 48

CHC II 85 127 76 20

CHC III 71 176 89 24

CHC IV 12 55 38 8

CHC V 5 32 22 11

CHC VI 0 30 21 7

Methamphetamine N N N N

Criminal History Category

CHC I 81 482 245 80

CHC II 13 96 95 58

CHC III 10 89 139 56

CHC IV 5 31 73 25

CHC V 1 15 30 13

CHC VI 1 9 34 20

A-42 | Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking Offenders—Appendix