J-1

APPENDIX J: SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX

This Supplemental Appendix contains information and data on which the Final Rule for

residential central air conditioners and heat pumps is based. Most data contained in this appendix

provide results based on the use of Reverse Engineering manufacturing cost data. The tables and

figures presented in this appendix usually have a corresponding table or figure from one of the

chapters in the Technical Support Document (TSD). Tables and figures in this appendix with

corresponding information in the TSD use the same table or figure numbers as the TSD but with an

“S” added after the number to designate it as supplemental information. For example, Table 5.28

from Chapter 5 of the TSD that provides average repair costs based on ARI mean manufacturing cost

data is shown in this appendix as Table 5.28S with the results based on Reverse Engineering

manufacturing cost data. There are some tables and figures in this appendix that do not have a

corresponding table or figure from the TSD. In these cases, the supplemental tables and figures are

identified with the table or figure number from the TSD that the new data most closely pertains to

and an “A” is added after the number to designate it as additional information.

J.1 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO CHAPTER 5

Table 5.3S Reverse Engineering Standard-Level Manufacturer Cost Multipliers

Split A/C Split HP Package A/C Package HP

SEER Most Likely Value Most Likely Value Most Likely Value Most Likely Value

10 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

11 1.12 1.05 1.09 1.08

12 1.28 1.13 1.16 1.13

13 1.44 1.30 1.43 1.38

18a 1.99 1.94 1.87 1.86

a

 Cost multipliers for 18 SEER are based on data for 15 SEER.

Table 5.8S Weighted-Average Total Installed Costs for Central Air Conditioners and

Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Split A/C Package A/C Split HP Package HP

SEER 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ 1998$

10 $2,236 $2,607 $3,668 $3,599

11 $2,327 $2,696 $3,723 $3,691

12 $2,449 $2,765 $3,812 $3,748

13 $2,571 $3,032 $4,000 $4,034

18 $2,990 $3,466 $4,707 $4,584

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-2

Table 5.28S Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Average Repair Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

SEER Split System A/C Single Package A/C Split System HP Single Package HP

Btu/W^hr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ 1998$

10 $26 $34 $38 $39

11 $26 $34 $38 $39

12 $27 $34 $38 $40

13 $27 $35 $39 $40

18 $46 $57 $66 $66

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-3

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Installed Consumer Cost

Equipment Price

Installation Price

Figure 5.29S Split A/C: Mean Installed Consumer Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Installed Consumer Cost

Equipment Price

Installation Price

Figure 5.32S Split HP: Mean Installed Consumer Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Annual Operating Cost

Electricity

Compr.

Repair

Maint.

Figure 5.33S Split HP: Mean Annual Operating Costs based

on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Life-Cycle Cost

Installed Consumer Cost

Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.31S Split A/C: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev

Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Annual Operating Cost

Electricity

Compr.

Repair

Maint.

Figure 5.30S Split A/C: Mean Annual Operating Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Life-Cycle Cost

Installed Consumer Cost

Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.34S Split HP: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev

Eng Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-4

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Installed Consumer Cost

Equipment Price

Installation Price

Figure 5.35S Pack A/C: Mean Installed Consumer Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Annual Operating Cost

Electricity

Compr.

Repair

Maint.

Figure 5.36S Pack A/C: Mean Annual Operating Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Life-Cycle Cost

Installed Consumer Cost

Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.37S Pack A/C: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on

Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Installed Consumer Cost

Equipment Price

Installation Price

Figure 5.38S Pack HP: Mean Installed Consumer Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Life-Cycle Cost

Installed Consumer Cost

Lifetime Operating Cost

Figure 5.40S Pack HP: Mean Life-Cycle Costs based on Rev

Eng Manufacturing Costs

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

10 11 12 13 18

SEER

Annual Operating Cost

Electricity

Compr.

Repair

Maint.

Figure 5.39S Pack HP: Mean Annual Operating Costs

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-5

ary of LCC Results for Split System Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Change in LCC from Baseline

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in 1998$)

Percent of

Households

with reduced

LCC

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

$-301 $-160 $-90 $-44 $-14 $10 $31 $51 $71 $168 $-75 56%$-525 $-276 $-147 $-64 $-4 $43 $83 $121 $160 $344 $-113 51%$-676 $-345 $-157 $-46 $35 $99 $155 $206 $262 $530 $-113 45%$-922 $-282 $47 $250 $390 $508 $611 $719 $866 $1,840 $137 28%

mary of LCC Results for Split System Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Change in LCC from Baseline

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in 1998$)

Percent of

Households

with reduced

LCC

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

$-488 $-332 $-250 $-192 $-147 $-109 $-77 $-45 $-10 $100 $-209 92%$-881 $-597 $-440 $-334 $-249 $-179 $-116 $-59 $10 $234 $-365 89%

$-1,106 $-700 $-484 $-330 $-216 $-115 $-28 $58 $145 $484 $-372 73%

5 $-1,333 $-560 $-148 $131 $347 $514 $659 $817 $1,012 $1,947 $41 35%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-6

S Summary of LCC Results for Single Package Air Conditioners based on Reverse Engineering 

Manufacturing Costs

Change in LCC from Baseline

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in 1998$)

Percent of

Households

with reduced

LCC

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

$-310 $-172 $-97 $-49 $-16 $10 $30 $50 $70 $151 $-78 56%$-577 $-329 $-197 $-111 $-49 $-3 $37 $73 $109 $226 $-163 61%$-650 $-269 $-79 $48 $129 $192 $249 $303 $364 $611 $-29 36%

$-779 $-138 $187 $393 $538 $658 $759 $867 $1,011 $1,677 $276 24%

mary of LCC Results for Single Package Heat Pumps based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Change in LCC from Baseline

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results (values in 1998$)

Percent of

Households

with reduced

LCC

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

$-520 $-343 $-253 $-190 $-143 $-102 $-67 $-30 $13 $185 $-207 87%$-977 $-681 $-514 $-399 $-310 $-233 $-165 $-95 $-16 $227 $-421 92%

$-1,138 $-712 $-487 $-318 $-194 $-89 $9 $107 $219 $613 $-353 69%$-1,689 $-878 $-416 $-92 $144 $340 $525 $715 $953 $2,086 $-166 44%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

SEER

Payback Period (years)

Median

Mean

Figure 5.72S Split A/C: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Table 5.53S Summary of Payback Period Results for Split Air Conditioners based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Efficiency Level

(SEER)

Payback Period in Years

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

11 1 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 24 339 12

12 1 3 5 6 8 10 12 15 20 31 571 15

13 1 4 6 7 9 11 14 17 23 34 670 17

18 1 5 8 11 15 20 27 41 89 1000 >1000 174

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

SEER

Payback Period (years)

Median

Mean

Figure 5.73S Split HP: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on Reverse

Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Table 5.54S Summary of Payback Period Results for Split Heat Pumps based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Efficiency Level

(SEER / HSPF)

Payback Period in Years

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

11 / 7.1 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 1000 4

12 / 7.4 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 9 >1000 6

13 / 7.7 1 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 11 15 1000 9

18 / 8.8 2 5 7 9 11 14 17 22 32 62 >1000 78

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

SEER

Payback Period (years)

Median

Mean

Figure 5.74S Package A/C: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Table 5.55S Summary of Payback Period Results for Single Package Air Conditioners

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Efficiency 

Level

(SEER)

Payback Period in Years

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

11 1 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 24 299 11

12 1 3 4 5 6 8 9 12 16 24 591 11

13 1 5 7 9 12 15 18 22 30 46 >1000 22

18 1 6 9 13 18 25 35 57 163 1000 >1000 240

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

SEER

Payback Period (years)

Median

Mean

Figure 5.75S Package HP: Median and Mean Payback Periods based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Table 5.56S Summary of Payback Period Results for Single Package Heat Pumps based

on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Efficiency Level

(SEER / HSPF)

Payback Period in Years

Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mean

11 / 7.1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 11 >1000 7

12 / 7.4 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 10 1000 6

13 / 7.7 1 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 20 >1000 13

18 / 8.8 2 5 7 9 11 13 16 21 28 56 >1000 62

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-11

Table 5.58S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Split System Air Conditioners

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Weighted-Avg of Units

Sold below Effc’y

Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt.

Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback

Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period

SEER 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 $2,236 3,600 $26 $36 $357 78.7% - - -

11 $2,327 3,273 $26 $36 $331 5.4% $2,236 $357 3.5

12 $2,449 3,000 $27 $36 $310 12.0% $2,241 $355 4.5

13 $2,571 2,769 $27 $36 $292 3.6% $2,267 $350 5.2

18 $2,990 2,000 $46 $36 $250 0.2% $2,279 $347 7.3

Table 5.59S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Split System Heat Pumps based

on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Weighted-Avg of

Units Sold below

Effc’y

Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt.

Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback

Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period

SEER/HSPF 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 /6.8 $3,668 11,844 $38 $36 $894 59.3% - - -

11 / 7.1 $3,723 11,168 $38 $36 $850 15.0% $3,668 $894 1.3

12 / 7.4 $3,812 10,575 $38 $36 $812 19.7% $3,679 $885 1.8

13 / 7.7 $4,000 10,049 $39 $36 $778 4.5% $3,707 $870 3.2

18 / 8.8 $4,707 8,370 $66 $36 $697 0.5% $3,734 $864 5.8

Table 5.60S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Single Package Air Conditioners

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Weighted-Avg of Units

Sold below Effc’y

Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt.

Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback

Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period

SEER 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 $2,607 3,600 $34 $36 $365 82.3% - - -

11 $2,696 3,273 $34 $36 $339 9.7% $2,607 $365 3.5

12 $2,765 3,000 $34 $36 $318 6.8% $2,616 $362 3.3

13 $3,032 2,769 $35 $36 $300 1.2% $2,627 $359 6.8

18 $3,466 2,000 $57 $36 $261 0.0% $2,632 $358 8.6

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-12

Table 5.61S Summary of Rebuttable PBPs and Inputs for Single Package Heat Pumps

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Weighted-Avg of

Units Sold below

Effc’y

Installed Annual Annual Annual Annual Assumed Installed Annual Rebutt.

Effc’y Consumer Energy Repair Maint. Operating 2006 Consumer Operating Payback

Level Cost Use Cost Cost Expense Effc’y Cost Expense Period

SEER/HSPF 1998$ kWh/yr 1998$ 1998$ 1998$ Distr. 1998$ 1998$ years

10 / 6.8 $3,599 11,844 $39 $36 $895 64.2% - - -

11 / 7.1 $3,691 11,168 $39 $36 $852 13.6% $3,599 $895 2.1

12 / 7.4 $3,748 10,575 $40 $36 $814 22.2% $3,615 $888 1.8

13 / 7.7 $4,034 10,049 $40 $36 $780 0.0% $3,645 $871 4.3

18 / 8.8 $4,584 8,370 $66 $36 $696 0.0% $3,645 $871 5.4

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

12345

Trial Standard Level

National Energy Savings (Quads)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

Figure 7.2S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering

Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006-

2030)

J.2 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO CHAPTER 7

Table 7.11S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030)

Efficiency Scenario

NAECA Roll-up Shift

Trial Standard Level Quads Quads Quads

1 1.7 1.5 1.9

2 3.0 2.9 3.5

3 3.5 3.4 3.9

4 4.3 4.2 4.7

5 8.6 8.8 8.6

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

12345

Trial Standard Level

National Energy Savings (Quads)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

Figure 7.3S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering

Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006-

2030)

Table 7.12S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

Efficiency Scenario

NAECA Roll-up Shift

Trial Standard Level Quads Quads Quads

1 1.7 1.5 1.9

2 2.9 2.8 3.4

3 3.4 3.3 3.8

4 4.3 4.1 4.7

5 8.4 8.4 8.4

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-15

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

12345

Trial Standard Level

National Energy Savings (Quads)

Figure 7.4S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering

Manufacturing Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006-

2030)

Table 7.13S Cumulative NES Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

Efficiency Scenario

NAECA Roll-up Shift

Trial Standard Level Quads Quads Quads

1 1.8 1.6 2.0

2 3.2 3.0 3.6

3 3.7 3.5 4.1

4 4.6 4.4 5.0

5 9.0 9.0 9.0

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5

Trial Standard Level

Total National Equipment and Operating Costs 

(billion 98$)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

Figure 7.10S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and

AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030)

Table 7.14S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

and AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030)

Base

Case

Efficiency Scenario

NAECA Roll-up Shift

Total Total NPV Total NPV Total NPV

TSL billion 98$ billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

1 $379 $378 $2 0.4% $377 $2 0.5% $378 $1 0.4%

2 $379 $377 $2 0.5% $377 $3 0.7% $380 ($1) -0.2%

3 $379 $378 $1 0.4% $377 $2 0.6% $381 ($2) -0.5%

4 $379 $379 $0 0.0% $378 $1 0.3% $383 ($4) -0.9%

5 $379 $390 ($10) -2.7% $390 ($10) -2.7% $390 ($10) -2.7%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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-$12

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

12345

Trial Standard Level

National NPV (billion 98$)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

2%

-2%

Figure 7.11S Cumulative NPVs relative to ±2% of Total National Base Case

Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and

AEO2000 Reference Case (2006 - 2030)

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-18

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5

Trial Standard Level

Total National Equipment and Operating Costs 

(billion 98$)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

Figure 7.12S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and

AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

Table 7.15S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 -2030)

Base

Case

Efficiency Scenario

NAECA Roll-up Shift

Total Total NPV Total NPV Total NPV

TSL billion 98$ billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

1 $367 $366 $1 0.4% $365 $2 0.5% $366 $1 0.3%

2 $367 $366 $1 0.4% $365 $2 0.6% $368 ($1) -0.3%

3 $367 $366 $1 0.3% $365 $2 0.5% $369 ($2) -0.5%

4 $367 $367 $0 -0.1% $366 $1 0.2% $371 ($4) -1.0%

5 $367 $378 ($11) -2.9% $378 ($11) -2.9% $378 ($11) -2.9%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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-$12

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

12345

Trial Standard Level

National NPV (billion 98$)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

2%

-2%

Figure 7.13S Cumulative National NPVs relative to ±2% of Total National

Base Case Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing

Costs and AEO2000 Low Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-20

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5

Trial Standard Level

Total National Equipment and Operating Costs 

(billion 98$)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

Figure 7.14S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs and

AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

Table 7.16S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 -2030)

Base

Case

Efficiency Scenario

NAECA Roll-up Shift

Total Total NPV Total NPV Total NPV

TSL billion 98$ billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

billion 98$ billion 98$

as % of

Base Case

Total

1 $402 $400 $2 0.5% $400 $2 0.6% $400 $2 0.4%

2 $402 $400 $2 0.6% $399 $3 0.8% $402 $0 -0.1%

3 $402 $400 $2 0.5% $399 $3 0.7% $403 ($1) -0.3%

4 $402 $401 $1 0.1% $400 $2 0.4% $405 ($3) -0.8%

5 $402 $412 ($10) -2.4% $412 ($10) -2.4% $412 ($10) -2.4%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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-$12

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

12345

Trial Standard Level

National NPV (billion 98$)

NAECA

Roll-up

Shift

2%

-2%

Figure 7.15S Cumulative National NPVs relative to ±2% of Total National

Base Case Costs based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing

Costs and AEO2000 High Growth Case (2006 - 2030)

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-22

$708 $702 $698 $698 $699 $716

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5

Trial Standard Level

Total National Equipment and Operating Costs 

(billion 98$)

Figure 7.26S Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA

Efficiency Scenario, and 3% Discount Rate Scenario (2006 -

2030)

Table 7.19S Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing

Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario (2006 - 2030): 3% Discount Rate Scenario

TSL

Base Case Total

billion 98$

TSL Total

billion 98$

TSL NPV

billion 98$

as % of Base Case

Total

1 $708 $702 $6 0.9%

2 $708 $698 $10 1.4%

3 $708 $698 $10 1.4%

4 $708 $699 $9 1.2%

5 $708 $716 ($8) -1.2%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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$6

$10 $10 $9

-$8

-$20

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

12345

Trial Standard Level

National NPV (billion 98$)

2%

-2%

Figure 7.27S Cumulative National NPVs based on Reverse Engineering

Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario, and 3%

Discount Rate Scenario (2006 - 2030)

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-24

$708 $701 $697 $697 $697 $716

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Base Case 1 2 3 4 5

Trial Standard Level

Total National Equipment and Operating Costs 

(billion 98$)

Table 7.26A Cumulative Total National Equipment and Operating Costs

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, Roll-up

Efficiency Scenario, and 3% Discount Rate Scenario (2006 -

2030)

Table 7.19A Cumulative NPV Results based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing

Costs, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario (2006 - 2030): 3% Discount Rate Scenario

TSL

Base Case Total

billion 98$

TSL Total

billion 98$

TSL NPV

billion 98$

as % of Base Case

Total

1 $708 $701 $7 0.9%

2 $708 $697 $11 1.6%

3 $708 $697 $11 1.6%

4 $708 $697 $11 1.5%

5 $708 $716 ($8) -1.2%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-25

$7

$11 $11 $11

-$8

-$20

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

12345

Trial Standard Level

National NPV (billion 98$)

2%

-2%

Table 7.27A Cumulative National NPVs based on Reverse Engineering

Manufacturing Costs, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario, and 3%

Discount Rate Scenario (2006 - 2030)

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-26

J.3 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES TO CHAPTER 8

Table 8.14S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Reverse Engineering Relative Cost,

NAECA Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from 

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 1,539 -- --

1 $ 1,509 $ (30) -2%

2 $ 1,380 $ (159) -10%

3 $ 1,368 $ (171) -11%

4 $ 1,370 $ (169) -11%

Table 8.15S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Reverse Engineering Relative Cost,

Roll-up Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 1,539 -- --

1 $ 1,379 $ (160) -10%

2 $ 1,226 $ (313) -20%

3 $ 1,220 $ (319) -21%

4 $ 1,236 $ (303) -20%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

($40)

$0

$40

$80

$120

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

TSL2

Base

TSL1

Figure 8.3S Industry Net Cash Flow – Reverse Engineering, Shift Efficiency Scenario

Table 8.16S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Reverse Engineering Relative Cost,

Shift Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from 

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 1,539 -- --

1 $ 1,658 $ 119 8%

2 $ 1,772 $ 233 15%

3 $ 1,776 $ 237 15%

4 $ 1,824 $ 285 19%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

($40)

$0

$40

$80

$120

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

Base

TSL2

TSL1

Figure 8.4S Industry Net Cash Flow – Reverse Engineering, NAECA Efficiency

Scenario

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

201

($40)

$0

$40

$80

$120

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

TSL2

TSL1

Base

Figure 8.5S Industry Net Cash Flow – Reverse Engineering, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-29

Table 8.29S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup,

Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from 

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 368 -- --

1 $ 385 $ 17 5%

2 $ 393 $ 25 7%

3 $ 397 $ 29 8%

4 $ 412 $ 44 12%

Table 8.30S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup,

Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Roll-up Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 368 -- --

1 $ 378 $ 10 3%

2 $ 385 $ 17 5%

3 $ 390 $ 22 6%

4 $ 405 $ 37 10%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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Table 8.31S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup,

Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Shift Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from 

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 368 -- --

1 $ 391 $ 23 6%

2 $ 414 $ 46 13%

3 $ 419 $ 51 14%

4 $ 437 $ 69 19%

Table 8.32S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup,

Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from 

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 1,171 -- --

1 $ 1,124 $ (47) -4%

2 $ 987 $ (184) -16%

3 $ 971 $ (200) -17%

4 $ 958 $ (213) -18%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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Table 8.33S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup,

Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Roll-up Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 1,171 -- --

1 $ 1,000 $ (171) -15%

2 $ 841 $ (330) -28%

3 $ 830 $ (341) -29%

4 $ 831 $ (340) -29%

Table 8.34S Changes in Industry Net Present Value — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup,

Reverse Engineering Relative Cost, Shift Efficiency Mix

Standard

Level

Industry Net

Present Value

($ million)

Change in INPV from 

Base Case

$ million percent

Base $ 1,171 -- --

1 $ 1,267 $ 96 8%

2 $ 1,358 $ 187 16%

3 $ 1,357 $ 186 16%

4 $ 1,387 $ 216 18%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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Table 8.35S Changes in ROIC in 2011 — Lower Operating Cost Subgroup

Standard

Level

Reverse Engineering

NAECA

Reverse Engineering

 Roll-up

Reverse Engineering

Shift

Return on

Invested

Capital

(ROIC)

Change in

ROIC

from Base

Return on

Invested

Capital

(ROIC)

Change in

ROIC

from Base

Return on

Invested

Capital

(ROIC)

Change in

ROIC

from Base

Base 13.2% -- 13.2% -- 13.2% --

1 13.6% 3% 13.5% 2% 13.9% 5%

2 13.4% 2% 13.2% 0% 14.1% 7%

3 13.5% 2% 13.2% 0% 14.1% 7%

4 13.6% 3% 13.4% 2% 14.3% 8%

Table 8.36S Changes in ROIC in 2011 — Higher Operating Cost Subgroup

Standard

Level

Reverse Engineering

NAECA

Reverse Engineering

 Roll-up

Reverse Engineering

Shift

Return on

Invested

Capital

(ROIC)

Change in

ROIC

from Base

Return on

Invested

Capital

(ROIC)

Change in

ROIC

from Base

Return on

Invested

Capital

(ROIC)

Change in

ROIC

from Base

Base 13.0% -- 13.0% -- 13.0% --

1 12.2% -6% 10.7% -18% 14.0% 8%

2 10.2% -22% 8.5% -35% 14.4% 11%

3 10.0% -23% 8.4% -35% 14.2% 9%

4 9.7% -25% 8.4% -35% 14.1% 8%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

-40

0

40

80

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL2TSL3 TSL1

Base

Figure 8.9S Net Cash Flows for the Lower Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse

Engineering, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

-40

0

40

80

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4 TSL3 TSL2

Base

TSL1

Figure 8.10S Net Cash Flows for the Lower Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse

Engineering, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

-40

0

40

80

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL3 TSL4

TSL2 TSL1

Base

Figure 8.11S Net Cash Flows for the Lower Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse

Engineering, Shift Efficiency Scenario

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

-40

0

40

80

120

160

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

Base

TSL2

TSL1

Figure 8.12S Net Cash Flows for the Higher Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse

Engineering, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-35

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

-40

0

40

80

120

160

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

TSL2

TSL1

Base

Figure 8.14S Net Cash Flows for the Higher Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse

Engineering, Shift Efficiency Scenario

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

-40

0

40

80

120

160

Effective Date = Jan 1, 2006

TSL4

TSL3

TSL2

TSL1

Base

Figure 8.13S Net Cash Flows for the Higher Operating Cost Subgroup – Reverse

Engineering, Roll-up Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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J.4 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES TO CHAPTER 10

Table 10.3S Split A/C: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households and

Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings

Efficiency

SEER

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

10 $4,906 - - - - $5,170 - - - -

11 $4,855 ($51) 21% 74% 5% $5,095 ($75) 28% 70% 2%

12 $4,841 ($65) 28% 38% 34% $5,057 ($113) 35% 40% 25%

13 $4,863 ($43) 26% 24% 50% $5,057 ($113) 34% 27% 39%

18 $5,176 $270 17% 6% 77% $5,307 $137 25% 7% 68%

Table 10.4S Split Heat Pump: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households

and Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings

Efficiency

SEER

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

10 $8,965 - - - - $9,679 - - - -

11 $8,836 ($129) 26% 74% 0% $9,470 ($209) 40% 60% 0%

12 $8,742 ($223) 44% 56% 0% $9,314 ($365) 58% 42% 0%

13 $8,780 ($185) 39% 49% 12% $9,307 ($372) 52% 42% 6%

18 $9,389 $424 15% 10% 75% $9,720 $41 28% 15% 57%

Table 10.5S Package A/C: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income Households and

Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings

Efficiency

SEER

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

10 $5,327 - - - - $5,629 - - - -

11 $5,272 ($55) 21% 77% 2% $5,551 ($78) 27% 72% 1%

12 $5,202 ($125) 34% 52% 14% $5,466 ($163) 40% 51% 9%

13 $5,364 $37 21% 18% 61% $5,600 ($29) 28% 20% 52%

18 $5,704 $377 15% 5% 80% $5,905 $276 21% 6% 73%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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Table 10.6S Package Heat Pump: LCC Result Comparisons between Low-Income

Households and Overall Sample based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Low-Income Households All Households and Commercial Buildings

Efficiency

SEER

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

Average

LCC

Avg

LCC

(Savings)

Costs

Net

Savings

(>2%)

No

Signif.

Impact

Net

Costs

(>2%)

10 $9,149 - - - - $9,626 - - - -

11 $9,031 ($118) 24% 76% 0% $9,419 ($207) 39% 61% 0%

12 $8,884 ($265) 52% 48% 0% $9,205 ($421) 66% 34% 0%

13 $9,001 ($148) 36% 44% 20% $9,273 ($353) 50% 38% 12%

18 $9,433 $284 20% 14% 66% $9,460 ($166) 37% 15% 48%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
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sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,375 1,454 1,539 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -4.3 -9.8 -14.4 -17.5 -19.5

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,171 2,249 2,341 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -2.3 -6.1 -6.1 -6.1

601 717 998 1,289 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -8.3 -9.1 -9.1 -9.1

90 68 53 47 45 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,698 3,997 4,278 4,533 4,727 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -4.6 -10.2 -14.3 -14.3 -14.3

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.6 325.2 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8

274.8 334.0 404.2 458.0 501.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -3.8 -5.7 -5.7 -5.7

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 900.6 944.8 989.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -4.0 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5

dard Level 1 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

NTAL TABLES TO CHAPTER 11

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-39

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,371 1,447 1,527 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.6 -17.3 -25.6 -31.0 -34.6

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,169 2,247 2,337 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.6 -4.2 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3

601 717 997 1,283 1,460 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -4.4 -13.9 -15.7 -15.7 -15.7

90 68 53 47 45 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

3,698 3,997 4,275 4,525 4,716 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.9 -17.7 -24.8 -24.8 -24.8

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.4 324.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3

274.8 334.0 403.8 455.5 498.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -6.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 900.3 942.2 985.7 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -6.6 -10.6 -10.6 -10.6

dard Level 2 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-40

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,370 1,444 1,523 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -8.8 -20.1 -29.7 -36.1 -40.3

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,169 2,246 2,335 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.9 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0

601 717 996 1,281 1,458 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -5.1 -16.1 -18.2 -18.2 -18.2

90 68 53 47 45 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.2 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.5

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

3,698 3,997 4,274 4,522 4,712 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -9.2 -20.6 -28.8 -28.8 -28.8

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.4 324.5 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5

274.8 334.0 403.7 454.5 496.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -7.3 -10.8 -10.8 -10.8

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 900.1 941.1 983.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -7.7 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4

dard Level 3 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-41

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,368 1,439 1,516 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.9 -24.9 -36.9 -44.9 -50.2

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,171 2,245 2,332 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -5.8 -14.7 -14.7 -14.7

601 717 992 1,277 1,454 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -8.7 -20.3 -22.5 -22.5 -22.5

90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,698 3,997 4,272 4,518 4,706 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.0 -25.2 -35.2 -35.2 -35.2

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.3 324.1 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9

274.8 334.0 403.4 452.5 494.0 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.3 -13.6 -13.6 -13.6

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 899.8 939.0 980.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.8 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5

dard Level 4 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-42

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,358 1,416 1,480 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -20.6 -48.0 -72.7 -89.7 -100.8

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,169 2,240 2,320 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -3.1 -11.4 -26.7 -26.7 -26.7

601 717 986 1,261 1,437 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -36.3 -38.6 -38.6 -38.6

90 68 52 47 42 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.4 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 448 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

3,698 3,997 4,263 4,496 4,674 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -20.1 -47.0 -67.0 -67.0 -67.0

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.6 314.8 322.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6

274.8 334.0 402.4 445.0 482.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -2.3 -16.8 -25.2 -25.2 -25.2

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.6 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

782.3 836.5 898.8 931.0 967.5 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -2.4 -17.8 -28.8 -28.8 -28.8

dard Level 5 Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-43

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,368 1,440 1,517 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.6 -24.2 -35.8 -43.6 -48.7

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,170 2,245 2,332 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.7 -5.9 -14.9 -14.9 -14.9

601 717 993 1,277 1,454 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.8 -19.9 -22.1 -22.1 -22.1

90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.0

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,698 3,997 4,272 4,518 4,706 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.0 -25.3 -34.9 -34.9 -34.9

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.3 324.1 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9

274.8 334.0 403.4 452.7 494.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.1 -13.5 -13.5 -13.5

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 899.8 939.2 980.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.6 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5

1.7S Standard Level 4 Roll-up Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-44

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,367 1,437 1,513 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.8 -27.1 -40.2 -49.1 -54.9

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,169 2,245 2,331 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -6.2 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0

601 717 993 1,276 1,452 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.7 -21.4 -23.8 -23.8 -23.8

90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 2.0

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,698 3,997 4,271 4,516 4,703 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.8 -26.9 -37.8 -37.8 -37.8

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.2 323.9 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1

274.8 334.0 403.4 452.1 493.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.7 -14.4 -14.4 -14.4

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.6 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

782.3 836.5 899.8 938.5 979.7 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -10.3 -16.6 -16.6 -16.6

11.8S Standard Level 4 Shift Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-45

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Lmac Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,183 1,275 1,356 1,414 1,469 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.4 -23.8 -35.8 -44.6 -50.6

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,923 2,105 2,131 2,170 2,208 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.9 -2.1 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6

591 683 933 1,178 1,311 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.4 -21.9 -26.2 -26.2 -26.2

85 60 42 39 35 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8

688 674 627 511 428 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

388 409 425 433 441 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4

3,675 3,931 4,158 4,331 4,423 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.0 -23.4 -33.2 -33.2 -33.2

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 309.6 308.0 309.4 310.8 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

275.0 325.3 387.7 426.1 458.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.8 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.3 101.2 103.0 104.4 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.5 826.6 881.0 905.8 930.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.0 -14.5 -14.5 -14.5

andard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs, 

NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-46

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Hmac Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,183 1,286 1,379 1,460 1,544 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.6 -26.2 -38.6 -47.0 -52.6

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,937 2,159 2,230 2,368 2,601 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -11.3 -28.1 -28.1 -28.1

615 762 1,063 1,357 1,468 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -9.2 -16.2 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9

95 83 74 65 70 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.6 0.4 1.8 1.8 1.8

688 674 627 510 440 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 414 435 446 459 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

3,724 4,092 4,429 4,746 5,037 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -12.3 -27.1 -36.5 -36.5 -36.5

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 311.2 315.4 329.8 358.5 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5

274.8 340.1 426.3 481.9 516.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -9.8 -12.5 -12.5 -12.5

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 58.7 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.9 99.1 102.7 105.1 107.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.5 843.8 928.5 984.3 1,041.4 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -10.8 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0

andard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs,

NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-47

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,369 1,440 1,518 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.4 -23.8 -35.4 -43.3 -48.4

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,172 2,246 2,333 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -5.5 -14.2 -14.2 -14.2

601 717 992 1,278 1,455 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -8.7 -19.1 -21.2 -21.2 -21.2

90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.3 1.6 1.6 1.6

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,698 3,997 4,273 4,519 4,707 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -24.0 -33.8 -33.8 -33.8

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.3 324.2 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8

274.8 334.0 403.4 453.0 494.5 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.8 -13.1 -13.1 -13.1

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 899.9 939.5 981.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -9.3 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0

ble 11.7A Standard Level 4 Roll-up Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-48

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,185 1,281 1,368 1,438 1,513 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.4 -26.5 -39.6 -48.6 -54.5

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,930 2,127 2,171 2,244 2,331 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -6.5 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0

601 717 992 1,276 1,452 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -9.5 -21.1 -23.7 -23.7 -23.7

90 68 53 47 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

688 674 627 511 427 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 411 429 437 447 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,698 3,997 4,272 4,516 4,703 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.5 -27.0 -37.5 -37.5 -37.5

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 310.6 310.7 315.2 323.9 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1

274.8 334.0 403.3 452.2 493.3 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.6 -14.3 -14.3 -14.3

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.3 836.5 899.8 938.7 979.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -10.1 -16.4 -16.4 -16.4

able 11.8A Standard Level 4 Shift Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-49

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Lmac Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,183 1,275 1,356 1,415 1,470 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.1 -23.4 -35.4 -44.3 -50.4

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,923 2,105 2,132 2,170 2,209 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -2.4 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1

591 683 932 1,179 1,312 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -7.9 -20.6 -25.4 -25.4 -25.4

85 60 42 39 35 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

688 674 627 511 428 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

388 409 425 433 441 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

3,675 3,931 4,159 4,332 4,424 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -10.3 -22.5 -32.2 -32.2 -32.2

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 309.6 308.0 309.4 310.8 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

275.0 325.3 387.7 426.4 459.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.5 -13.4 -13.4 -13.4

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 57.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.7 98.3 101.2 103.0 104.4 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.5 826.6 881.0 906.2 931.5 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -8.6 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9

A Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing Costs, 

NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-50

sults: Difference from AEO2000 Hmac Reference

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

1,183 1,286 1,380 1,460 1,545 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -11.4 -25.8 -38.2 -46.6 -52.3

ration Total U.S. Electric Generation

1,937 2,159 2,229 2,368 2,601 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.1 -11.1 -27.8 -27.8 -27.8

615 762 1,064 1,358 1,469 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -8.2 -15.1 -8.8 -8.8 -8.8

95 83 74 65 70 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.5

688 674 627 510 440 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

389 414 435 446 459 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

3,724 4,092 4,429 4,747 5,039 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -12.2 -26.2 -35.4 -35.4 -35.4

pacity Installed Generating Capacity

315.3 311.2 315.4 329.9 358.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4

274.8 340.1 426.5 482.0 517.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -9.7 -12.1 -12.1 -12.1

97.5 93.4 84.1 67.4 58.7 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.9 99.1 102.7 105.1 107.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

782.5 843.8 928.7 984.4 1,041.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -10.7 -15.6 -15.6 -15.6

A Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast based on ARI Mean Manufacturing Costs, 

NAECA Efficiency Scenario

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-51

-70.0

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20062011201620212026

Year

Jobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1

Trial Standard 2

Trial Standard 3

Trial Standard 4

Trial Standard 5

Figure 12.1S Net National Employment Impacts

J.6 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO CHAPTER 12

Table 12.1S Net National Change in Jobs

Trial Standard Level 2010

(thousands)

2020

(thousands)

2030

(thousands)

1 -4.9 -0.8 1.0

2 -11.5 -3.8 -0.9

3 -14.9 -6.5 -3.4

4 -22.6 -12.8 -9.5

5 -57.3 -52.4 -52.5

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-52

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

20062011201620212026

Year

Jobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1

Trial Standard 2

Trial Standard 3

Trial Standard 4

Trial Standard 5

Figure 12.2S Employment Impacts of Consumer Savings

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

20062011201620212026

Year

Jobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1

Trial Standard 2

Trial Standard 3

Trial Standard 4

Trial Standard 5

Figure 12.3S Economic Impacts of Changes in Equipment Cost

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-53

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

20062011201620212026

Year

Jobs (Thousands)

Trial Standard 1

Trial Standard 2

Trial Standard 3

Trial Standard 4

Trial Standard 5

`

Figure 12.4S Economic Impacts of Changes in Utility Savings

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-54

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 55.54% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($75) .000

.011

.021

.032

.042

0

106

212

318

424

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200

10,000 Trials 285 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.1S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 55.54% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($75) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200

10,000 Trials 285 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.2S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

J.7 SUPPLEMENTAL FIGURES TO APPENDIX E

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-55

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 50.70% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($113) .000

.011

.021

.032

.042

0

105.2

210.5

315.7

421

($1,000) ($625) ($250) $125 $500

10,000 Trials 330 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.3S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 50.70% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($113) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($1,000) ($625) ($250) $125 $500

10,000 Trials 330 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.4S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-56

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 45.29% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($113) .000

.011

.023

.034

.045

0

112.7

225.5

338.2

451

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

10,000 Trials 234 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.5S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 45.29% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($113) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

10,000 Trials 234 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.6S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-57

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 28.38% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = $137

.000

.011

.022

.034

.045

0

111.7

223.5

335.2

447

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000

10,000 Trials 213 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.7S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 28.38% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = $137

.000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000

10,000 Trials 213 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.8S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-58

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 92.43% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($209) .000

.008

.017

.025

.034

0

83.75

167.5

251.2

335

($800) ($550) ($300) ($50) $200

10,000 Trials 288 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.9S Split HP, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 92.43% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($209) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($800) ($550) ($300) ($50) $200

10,000 Trials 288 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.10S Split HP, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-59

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 88.80% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($365) .000

.008

.016

.023

.031

0

78

156

234

312

($1,500) ($1,063) ($625) ($188) $250

10,000 Trials 272 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.11S Split HP, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 88.80% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($365) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($1,500) ($1,063) ($625) ($188) $250

10,000 Trials 272 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.12S Split HP, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-60

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 73.25% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($372) .000

.008

.015

.023

.030

0

75.75

151.5

227.2

303

($2,000) ($1,375) ($750) ($125) $500

10,000 Trials 231 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.13S Split HP, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 73.25% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($372) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($2,000) ($1,375) ($750) ($125) $500

10,000 Trials 231 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.14S Split HP, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-61

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 35.06% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = $41

.000

.009

.018

.027

.036

0

88.75

177.5

266.2

355

($3,000) ($1,750) ($500) $750 $2,000

10,000 Trials 231 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.15S Split HP, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 35.06% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = $41

.000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($3,000) ($1,750) ($500) $750 $2,000

10,000 Trials 231 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.16S Split HP, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-62

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 55.82% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($78) .000

.011

.022

.032

.043

0

107.7

215.5

323.2

431

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200

10,000 Trials 262 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.17S Single Package A/C, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 55.82% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($78) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200

10,000 Trials 262 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.18S Single Package A/C, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-63

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 60.57% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($163) .000

.011

.022

.033

.045

0

111.2

222.5

333.7

445

($1,250) ($875) ($500) ($125) $250

10,000 Trials 191 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.19S Single Package A/C, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 60.57% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($163) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($1,250) ($875) ($500) ($125) $250

10,000 Trials 191 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.20S Single Package A/C, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-64

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 35.85% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($29) .000

.011

.022

.033

.045

0

111.2

222.5

333.7

445

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

10,000 Trials 197 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.21S Single Package A/C, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 35.85% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = ($29) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

10,000 Trials 197 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.22S Single Package A/C, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-65

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 23.72% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = $276

.000

.011

.023

.034

.045

0

113.2

226.5

339.7

453

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000

10,000 Trials 203 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.23S Single Package A/C, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 23.72% from -Infinity to $0 $

Mean = $276

.000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($2,500) ($1,375) ($250) $875 $2,000

10,000 Trials 203 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.24S Single Package A/C, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-66

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 86.80% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($207) .000

.008

.016

.024

.032

0

80.5

161

241.5

322

($900) ($625) ($350) ($75) $200

10,000 Trials 193 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.25S Single Package HP, 11 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based

on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 86.80% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($207) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($900) ($625) ($350) ($75) $200

10,000 Trials 193 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.26S Single Package HP, 11 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-67

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 91.89% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($421) .000

.008

.015

.023

.030

0

76

152

228

304

($1,750) ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250

10,000 Trials 150 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.27S Single Package HP, 12 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based

on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 91.89% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($421) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($1,750) ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250

10,000 Trials 150 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.28S Single Package HP, 12 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-68

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 68.85% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($353) .000

.007

.015

.022

.030

0

74.5

149

223.5

298

($2,000) ($1,313) ($625) $63 $750

10,000 Trials 241 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.29S Single Package HP, 13 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based

on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 68.85% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($353) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($2,000) ($1,313) ($625) $63 $750

10,000 Trials 241 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.30S Single Package HP, 13 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-69

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 43.94% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($166) .000

.009

.018

.026

.035

0

87.5

175

262.5

350

($3,500) ($2,000) ($500) $1,000 $2,500

10,000 Trials 228 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.31S Single Package HP, 18 SEER: Frequency Chart of LCC Difference based

on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

Cumulative Chart

Certainty is 43.94% from -Infinity to $0

Mean = ($166) .000

.250

.500

.750

1.000

0

10000

($3,500) ($2,000) ($500) $1,000 $2,500

10,000 Trials 228 Outliers

Forecast: LCC Difference

Figure E.32S Single Package HP, 18 SEER: Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference

based on Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-70

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.1.1S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 3.23 

 Total Equipment Cost 2.56 

 Net Present Benefit 0.68 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.26

Table F.1.2S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.1S Split A/C, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

J.8 SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES AND FIGURES TO APPENDIX F

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-71

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.79 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 1.84 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.2.1S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 5.84 

 Total Equipment Cost 5.48 

 Net Present Benefit 0.36 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.07

Table F.2.2S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.2S Split A/C, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-72

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 1.11 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 2.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.3.1S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 8.19 

 Total Equipment Cost 8.68 

 Net Present Benefit -0.50 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.94

Table F.3.2S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.3S Split A/C, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-73

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 2.09 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.4.1S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 11.77 

 Total Equipment Cost 18.43 

 Net Present Benefit -6.67 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.64

Table F.4.2S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.4S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-74

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.5.1S Split HP, 11 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 1.18 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.48 

 Net Present Benefit 0.70 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.47

Table F.5.2S Split HP, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.5S Split HP, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-75

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.35 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.82 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.6.1S Split HP, 12 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 2.18 

 Total Equipment Cost 1.08 

 Net Present Benefit 1.09 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.01

Table F.6.2S Split HP, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.6S Split HP, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-76

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.53 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 1.24 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.7.1S Split HP, 13 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 3.29 

 Total Equipment Cost 2.53 

 Net Present Benefit 0.76 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.30

Table F.7.2S Split HP, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.7S Split HP, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-77

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 1.09 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 2.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.8.1S Split HP, 18 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Split HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 5.15 

 Total Equipment Cost 7.49 

 Net Present Benefit -2.34 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.69

Table F.8.2S Split A/C, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.8S Split HP, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-78

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.9.1S Pack. A/C, 11 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.42 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.30 

 Net Present Benefit 0.12 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.39

Table F.9.2S Pack. A/C, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.9S Package A/C, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-79

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.10.1S Pack. A/C, 12 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.72 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.52 

 Net Present Benefit 0.20 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.39

Table F.10.2S Pack. A/C, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.10S Package A/C, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-80

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.31 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.11.1S Pack. A/C, 13 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.98 

 Total Equipment Cost 1.28 

 Net Present Benefit -0.30 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.77

Table F.11.2S Pack. A/C, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.11S Package A/C, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-81

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.58 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.12.1S Pack. A/C, 18 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package A/C Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 1.31 

 Total Equipment Cost 2.39 

 Net Present Benefit -1.09 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.55

Table F.12.2S Pack. A/C, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.12S Package A/C, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-82

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.13.1S Pack. HP, 11 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 11 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.19 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.10 

 Net Present Benefit 0.09 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.88

Table F.13.2S Pack. HP, 11 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.13S Package HP, 11 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-83

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.14.1S Pack. HP, 12 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 12 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.33 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.16 

 Net Present Benefit 0.17 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 2.07

Table F.14.2S Pack. HP, 12 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.14S Package HP, 12 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-84

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.15.1S Pack. HP, 13 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 13 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.49 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.46 

 Net Present Benefit 0.03 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.06

Table F.15.2S Pack. HP, 13 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.15S Package HP, 13 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
J-85

Energy Saving in Quads

Total Elec Gas Oil LPG

from 2006

 to 2010 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2020 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00

 to 2030 0.37 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table F.16.1S Pack. HP, 18 SEER: Energy Savings

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

CAC/HP Standards in 2006: 18 SEER

Cost and Net Present Values (in billion 1998$)

Cumulative for Package HP Purchased from 2006 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to year 1998

 Total Operating Savings 0.76 

 Total Equipment Cost 0.98 

 Net Present Benefit -0.23 

 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.77

Table F.16.2S Pack. HP, 18 SEER: Costs and Net Present Value

based on Rev Eng Manufacturing Costs

Cost and Saving of CAC/HP

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Billion 1998 Dollars

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Price Change

Operating S avings

Net S aving

Figure F.16S Package HP, 18 SEER: Annual Savings and Costs based on

Reverse Engineering Manufacturing Costs

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312