www.inl.gov 

# Water Management Analysis of

Hydraulic Fracturing using System Dynamic Models Earl D. Mattson, Carl D. Palmer, Kara Cafferty EPA Technical Workshop #4 Water Resource Management Theme 1: Water Use and Sustainability March 29-30, 2011 Idaho National Laboratory

# Water Impact from Shale Gas Development

From: http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/minres/oilgas/BOGM%20Website%20Pictures/2 009/2009%20%20Wells%20Drilled.jpg From: http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/wlhabitat/images/watersheds.jpg 

### • Growing Industry • Multiple Operators (82 in PA) • Multiple Watersheds • Complex problem to integrate

# Objective 

# : Present an outline on the potential use of System 

# Dynamic Models to track water usage for hydraulic fracturing of shales and its integration into GIS models.

# Hydraulic Fracturing Water Consumption Estimates Shale Gas Play Volume of

Drilling Water per well (gal) Volume of

Fracturing Water per well (gal) Total Volume of

Water per well (gal) Barnett 400,000 2,300,000 2,700,000 Fayetteville 60,000 2,900,000 3,060,000 Haynesville 1,000,000 2,700,000 3,700,000 Marcellus 80,000 3,800,000 3,880,000


### • No description of acquisition • No estimate of return volume • Based on historical data Data from Modern Shale Gas A Primer

# System Dynamics Modeling
 A way to address complex problems involving diverse stakeholders  Dynamic , non - linear simulation modeling with capacities to integrate “soft” and “hard” system components in one place.  Provides a visual model of the system  Receive immediate response to “what if” scenarios.  Links cause and effects relationships  Captures the mental models of the domain experts.  All model equations and data are “transparent”

# Example of an in-situ retort similar to the Shell process

# Building the Model • The water usage can be scaled by:

– Number of wells

– Surface areas



## – Subsurface volumes

– Product production rate 

# • The system can be represented by

– Single subsurface shale

– Sequential events 

# • The parameter distributions can be described by simple functionsModel inputs Model calculations Model outputs 

# Oil Shale Model Components

# Oil Shale Construction Module

# Oil Shale Operation Module

### Construction

Note: Diagram for illustration only, do not cite. 

# Model OutputSource

Groundwater Surface water Reuse Pre-fracture Storage Ponds Pipelines Tankers Fracture Design Injection rate Injection pressure Young’s Modulus Possion ratio Stress conditions # of fractures Leakoff rate Operation Operating pressure Fracture rinse Flow back water Produced water Water in matrix Post-fracture Storage Volume Treatment

Water Injected Fracture volume Leakoff volume 

# Potential Hydraulic Fracturing Modules

# An example of a basic system dynamics reservoir model with direct plug-in to GIS framework

# Summary

time Water Needed time Water Needed

time Water Needed
time Water Needed time Water Return
time Water Return

time Water Return

time Water Return 

## Inputs GIS Location Outputs

# Summary • Theme 1: Water Use and Sustainability

– Identify sources of water needed for HF

– How to integrate this water use with surrounding communities • Theme 2: Flowback Recovery and Water Use

– Quantify amount of flowback

– Extended towards reuse • Theme 3: Disposal Practices

– Quantifies volume of waste disposal time Water Needed time Hydrograph

time Water Return

time Water for Disposal 

### Integrate water use into single predictive tool for water management decisions

# Model Integration