RECLAMATION 


Managing Water in the ffest 


Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study 

Technical Report A- Scenario Development 

u .s. Department of the Intenor 

Bureau 01 Reclamation December 2012 
Mission Statements

The U.S. Department of the Interior protects America’s natural 

resources and heritage, honors our cultures and tribal communities, 

and supplies the energy to power our future. 

The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, 

and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and 

economically sound manner in the interest of the American public.
U.S. Department of the Interior

Bureau of Reclamation December 2012

Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

Technical Report A — Scenario 

Development 

December 2012 A-iii

Contents

Page

1.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................. A-1

2.0 Incorporating Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning ................................... A-2

3.0 Overview of Scenario Planning Process ................................................................. A-3

3.1 Frame the Question ........................................................................................ A-3

3.2 Identify and Rank Driving Forces.................................................................. A-4

3.3 Prioritize and Select Critical Uncertainties .................................................... A-5

3.4 Develop Storylines ......................................................................................... A-5

3.5 Develop Quantitative Scenarios ..................................................................... A-6

4.0 Implementation of Scenario Development Process ............................................... A-6

4.1 Frame the Question ........................................................................................ A-8

4.2 Identify Driving Forces .................................................................................. A-8

4.3 Rank Driving Forces ...................................................................................... A-8

4.4 Identify Critical Uncertainties........................................................................ A-14

4.5 Associate Critical Uncertainties with Water Supply and 

Water Demand ............................................................................................... A-14

4.6 Develop Water Supply and Water Demand Scenarios .................................. A-15

5.0 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... A-17

6.0 References ................................................................................................................. A-18

Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................. A-19

Tables

A-1 List of Driving Forces Influencing Future Colorado River System Reliability......... A-9

A-2 Summary of Respondent Affiliation Category for the Driving Force 

 Uncertainty Survey .................................................................................................... A-10

A-3 Summary of Responses for the Driving Forces Survey ............................................. A-11

A-4 Association of Critical Uncertainties with Key Factors in System Reliability .......... A-15

Figures

A-1 Conceptual Representation of the Uncertain Future of a System, 

also known as “The Scenario Funnel” ....................................................................... A-3

A-2 General Steps Involved in the Scenario Planning Process......................................... A-4
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-iv December 2012

A-3 Example of the Qualitative Characterization of Critical Uncertainties ..................... A-6

A-4 Scenario Development Process Used in the Study .................................................... A-7

A-5 Plot of Mean Results from Driving Forces Survey .................................................... A-12

A-6 Plot of Mean Results from Driving Forces Survey Water Management 

 Respondents, and Environmental Organizations 

and Fishery Management Agencies ........................................................................... A-13

A-7 Plot of Mean Results from Driving Forces Survey and Selected 

Critical Uncertainties ................................................................................................. A-14

A-8 Illustration of Combined Water Supply and Water Demand Scenarios .................... A-17

Appendix

A1 Driving Forces Survey 
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-v 

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Basin Colorado River Basin 

Basin States Colorado River Basin States 

ESA Endangered Species Act

GCM General Circulation Model

Mexico United Mexican States 

Reclamation Bureau of Reclamation

Study Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study 

tribes federally recognized tribes

December 2012 A-1 

Technical Report A — Scenario 

Development

1.0 Introduction

The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Study), initiated in January 2010, 

was conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation’s (Reclamation) Upper Colorado and Lower 

Colorado regions, and agencies representing the seven Colorado River Basin States (Basin 

States) in collaboration with stakeholders throughout the Colorado River Basin (Basin). The 

purpose of the Study is to define current and future imbalances in water supply and demand in 

the Basin and the adjacent areas of the Basin States that receive Colorado River water over the 

next 50 years (through 2060), and to develop and analyze adaptation and mitigation strategies to 

resolve those imbalances. The Study contains for major phases to accomplish this goal: Water 

Supply Assessment, Water Demand Assessment, System Reliability Analysis, and Development 

and Evaluation of Options and Strategies for Balancing Supply and Demand.

Spanning parts of the seven states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, 

and Wyoming, the Colorado River is one of the most critical sources of water in the western 

United States. The Colorado River is also a vital resource to the United Mexican States 

(Mexico). It is widely known that the Colorado River, based on the inflows observed over the 

last century, is over-allocated and supply and demand imbalances are likely to occur in the 

future. Up to this point, this imbalance has been managed, and demands have largely been met as 

a result of the considerable amount of reservoir storage capacity in the system, the fact that the 

Upper Basin States are still developing into their apportionments, and efforts the Basin States 

have made to reduce their demand for Colorado River water. 

Concerns regarding the reliability of the Colorado River system to meet future needs are even 

more apparent today. The Basin States include some of the fastest growing urban and industrial 

areas in the United States. At the same time, the effects of climate change and variability on the 

Basin water supply has been the focus of many scientific studies which project a decline in the 

future yield of the Colorado River. Increasing demand, coupled with decreasing supplies, will 

certainly exacerbate imbalances throughout the Basin. 

It is against this backdrop that the Study was conducted to establish a common technical 

foundation from which important discussions can begin regarding possible strategies to reduce 

future supply and demand imbalances. The content of this report is a key component of that 

technical foundation and describes the Study’s scenario planning process. 

The amount of water available and the progression of demand for water in the Basin (and the 

adjacent areas of the Basin States that receive Colorado River water) over the next 50 years are 

highly uncertain and dependent upon a number of socioeconomic and other factors. The potential 

impacts of future climate variability and climate change further contribute to these uncertainties. 

To analyze the future reliability of the Colorado River system, with and without adaptation and 

mitigation strategies, projections of water supply and demand were necessary. These projections 

needed to be sufficiently broad to capture the plausible ranges of uncertainty in future water 

supply and water demand to ensure that the reliability of the Colorado River system was 

adequately analyzed. 
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-2 December 2012

A scenario planning process was used to guide the development of scenarios that provided a 

broad range of projections of future water supply and demand. The process involved the 

identification of the key forces that will likely drive future water supply and water demand, 

ranking of the driving forces as to their relative importance and uncertainty, and use of the highly 

uncertain and highly important driving forces to identify various themes and storylines (narrative 

descriptions of scenarios) that describe how water supply and water demand may evolve in the 

future. Quantification of the storylines resulted in water supply and water demand scenarios that 

were used to assess future system reliability and assess the performance of options and strategies. 

This report provides background on scenario planning and describes the scenario development 

approach used in the Study to develop the water supply and demand scenarios. Initially 

published in June 2011 under Interim Report No. 1, this report replaces the earlier publication. 

Four water supply scenarios and six water demand scenarios were identified and quantified. 

Details regarding the quantification and analysis of the water supply and water demand scenarios 

are presented in the respective technical reports (Technical Report B – Water Supply Assessment, 

and Technical Report C – Water Demand Assessment). 

2.0 Incorporating Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning

Management of water resources, and particularly those of the Colorado River, is a complex 

interplay between natural and human systems, driven by forces such as climatic, demographic, 

economic, social, institutional, political, and technological factors. The precise trajectory of this 

interplay over time, and the resulting state of the physical system over time, are uncertain and 

cannot be represented by a single view of the future. In light of this broad uncertainty, scenario 

planning can be used to consider and portray the broad range of plausible futures in a 

manageable number of scenarios. Scenario approaches have been widely applied in water 

planning and management, from global to regional scales, although specific methodologies have 

varied considerably (Alcamo and Gallopin, 2003; Mara and Thomure, 2009; Water Utility 

Climate Alliance, 2010). 

Scenarios are alternative views of how the future might unfold. Scenarios are not predictions or 

forecasts of the future. Rather, a set of well-constructed scenarios represents a range of plausible 

futures that assists in the assessment of future risks and the development of mitigation and 

adaptation options and strategies. Figure A-1 shows this concept. At present, there is an 

understanding of the current state of the Colorado River system. For the future, a range of 

plausible futures, represented by the funnel, can be identified. The suite of scenarios used in the 

planning effort should be sufficiently broad to span the plausible range. 
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-3 

FIGURE A-1 

Conceptual Representation of the Uncertain Future of a System, also known as “The Scenario Funnel” 

(adapted from Timpe and Scheepers, 2003)

3.0 Overview of Scenario Planning Process 

Figure A-2 presents the general steps involved in the scenario planning process as applied to a 

water resources planning study, from the initial point of framing the focal question(s) being 

addressed by the study, through the development and analysis of options and strategies to 

improve system performance. 

The shaded area within figure A-2 encapsulates the steps that are typically part of the 

development of scenarios, and are the focus of this report. 

Input from a broad sampling of stakeholders, experts, and others interested in the management of 

the system was crucial throughout the development of scenarios. This input ensured that the 

resulting scenarios were representative of the plausible range of futures in the view of those who 

best know the system. 

The five steps shown in figure A-2 for typical scenario development are described below. 

3.1 Frame the Question

The scenario planning process begins with a clear understanding of the purpose and objectives of 

the planning study. Defining the focal question of the study is crucial to the development of 

scenarios and options and strategies. The focal question (or questions) is the key question or 

issue that the study wishes to address, and provides the framework for the consideration of the 

key forces that influence future uncertainty. 
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-4 December 2012

FIGURE A-2 

General Steps Involved in the Scenario Planning Process Analysis & Strategy Development

3.2 Identify and Rank Driving Forces 

Driving forces are the factors that will likely have the greatest influence on the future state of the 

system and thereby the performance of the system over time. Although the driving forces that 

have been considered in water management studies have varied, driving forces within the 

following categories have generally been considered:

• Natural Systems

• Demographic 

• Economic 

• Technological

• Social

• Governance
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-5 

Not all driving forces influence the system to the same degree or contribute the same level of 

uncertainty. In the development of scenarios, it is useful to rank each driving force based on its 

relative importance to the focal questions of the study and the relative degree of uncertainty of 

that driving force over time. 

3.3 Prioritize and Select Critical Uncertainties

Critical uncertainties are the key driving forces that are identified as both highly uncertain and 

highly important. Stakeholder and other expert input is crucial for identifying these critical 

uncertainties to gauge the relative “importance” and “uncertainty” of each of the driving forces. 

This input can be gathered in various ways, such as holding workshops, conducting surveys, or 

using other outreach methods. The critical uncertainties can be identified from the expert input 

and other outreach, and a number of critical uncertainties are selected to form the basis for 

storyline development. 

3.4 Develop Storylines

A storyline is the narrative description of a scenario, based on the critical uncertainties; the 

storyline provides the “plot” of the scenario. Development of storylines is a qualitative process, 

requiring the involvement of subject matter experts who have the best understanding of the 

system and of the critical uncertainties. 

The process of developing the storylines requires identifying parameters that describe each 

critical uncertainty, characterizing the evolution of those parameters over time, and combining 

the characteristics of various parameters into descriptions of plausible futures. 

Parameters are the variables that describe the behavior of a critical uncertainty. For example, for 

the critical uncertainty Changes in Population and Distribution, the parameters include 

“population” and “population distribution.” Once the parameters have been identified, the 

plausible range of each parameter over time is described.

Figure A-3 shows a hypothetical high-, low-, and medium-growth curve for the key parameter, 

“population” on the left, and a similar hypothetical plot for the parameter, “municipal and 

industrial water use efficiency” parameter on the right. For each parameter, the curves represent 

qualitative characteristics describing plausible future trajectories. The two parameters in 

figure A-3 are descriptors of two separate critical uncertainties identified in the Study, Changes 

in Population Growth and Distribution and Changes in Municipal and Industrial Water Use 

Efficiency, respectively. 

In the development of the storylines, the critical uncertainties and associated parameter 

characteristics are combined based on logical, coherent descriptions of how the future may 

unfold. For example, high population growth may be envisioned with modest or large increases 

in water use efficiency as part of a particular storyline. As a result of this process, the storyline 

and its logic should be understandable to a broad range of stakeholders. Furthermore, an 

understanding of the combination of parameter characteristics in a given storyline assists in the 

subsequent step of quantifying the scenario. 
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-6 December 2012

FIGURE A-3 

Example of the Qualitative Characterization of Critical Uncertainties

3.5 Develop Quantitative Scenarios

Scenarios are the result of quantifying the parameter characteristics that are described in the 

storylines. As is the case with other steps in the scenario development process, stakeholder and 

other expert input is important to ensure that the resulting scenario depicts the appropriate range 

of each parameter as described in the storyline. 

For example, in the case of population growth, there may be differing views as to what 

constitutes high, medium, and low growth. Dialogue is necessary to ensure a common 

understanding of the storyline’s meaning and its subsequent quantification. 

In some cases, scenarios make use of quantitative information previously developed to address 

uncertainties. In these cases, the existing information is reviewed and checked for consistency 

with the assumptions and storyline process. 

Well-understood and well-documented scenarios are critical to implementing the process 

depicted in figure A-2. 

4.0 Implementation of Scenario Development Process 

The general steps involved in scenario planning are shown in figure A-2, and they provided the 

framework for the approach implemented in the Study. To specifically address the needs of the 

Study, this approach was customized and is shown in figure A-4. This section describes the 

specific steps undertaken in the Study. 

A collaborative process that engaged stakeholders was essential to the successful development of 

scenarios. For the Study, representatives of numerous organizations participated, including the 

Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), the Basin States, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National 

Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Western Area Power Administration, federally

recognized tribes (tribes), conservation organizations, water delivery contractors, contractors for 

the purchase of federal power, and others interested in the Basin. This collaboration was 

accomplished through a variety of means, including workshops, surveys, and participation in 

sub-teams.
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-7 

FIGURE A-4 

Scenario Development Process Used in the Study

Analysis & Strategy 

Development

Scenario 

Development 

Process Identify Driving Forces

Rank Driving Forces

Identify 

Critical Uncertainties

Frame the Question 

Associate Critical Uncertainties with

Water Supply and Water Demand

Quantify Scenarios

Identify Characteristics within 

each Critical Uncertainty

Analyze Supply 

Scenarios

Identify Parameters within 

each Critical Uncertainty

Develop 

Storylines

Supply Demand

Uncertainty_Flow_Diagram_rev10.ppt

No

Yes

Analyze Demand 

Scenarios

Combine 

Scenarios

No

Yes

Supply 

Scenarios

Document 

Supply

Scenarios

Demand 

Scenarios

Document 

Demand

Scenarios

Do the existing 

scenarios 

represent a 

sufficiently broad 

range of 

plausible 

futures?

Do the existing 

scenarios 

represent a 

sufficiently broad 

range of plausible 

futures?

Identify Parameter Ranges
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-8 December 2012

4.1 Frame the Question

The purpose and objectives defined in the Plan of Study (see Study Report, Appendix 1 – Plan of 

Study) were used to frame the focal questions that the Study addressed. These questions are: 

1. What is the future reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the needs of Basin 

resources through 2060? 

2. What are the options and strategies to mitigate future risks to these resources? 

The first question requires an understanding of the underlying components of future reliability: 

water supply and water demand. Specifically, what factors determine the future availability of 

water and what factors that determine the future demand for water? The scenario development 

process addressed these questions and resulted in scenarios of the future that define a range of 

plausible water supply and water demand outcomes. 

The second question relates to water management responses to mitigate and adapt to the potential 

impacts to Basin resources under scenarios of the future, and was the focus of the analysis and 

strategy development phases of the Study. 

4.2 Identify Driving Forces

An initial list of 14 specific driving forces relevant to understanding potential future conditions 

was developed using the general categories previously described, based on experience managing 

the Colorado River system. Stakeholder teleconferences were conducted to seek input to refine 

and add to the initial list of driving forces. The stakeholder outreach was conducted by the Water 

Supply, Water Demand, and System Reliability Metrics Sub-Teams, and included members from 

water management entities, federal resource management agencies (fishery, recreation, energy, 

and land management), tribes, and conservation organizations. The input from these stakeholders 

expanded the initial list of driving forces from 14 to 18 and resulted in greater clarity in the 

definition of some driving forces. Table A-1 lists the driving forces. The numbers were assigned 

for identification purposes only and do not imply priority. 

4.3 Rank Driving Forces 

Stakeholder and other expert input regarding the critical uncertainties was collected by 

conducting a survey (see appendix A1). The survey listed the 18 driving forces (table A-1) and 

asked the respondents to independently rate (using a scale of 1 through 5, with 5 being the 

highest) the relative importance and relative uncertainty associated with each driving force. 

Specifically, the respondents were asked to provide ratings based on the following two 

characteristics:

• Importance (1 through 5): Rate the relative importance of the driving forces to the 

reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the needs of Basin resources through 2060 

• Uncertainty (1 through 5): Rate the relative uncertainty of the driving forces in the 

Colorado River Basin through 2060 
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-9 

TABLE A-1 

List of Driving Forces Influencing Future Colorado River System Reliability

No. Driving Force

1 Changes in streamflow variability and trends

2 Changes in climate variability and trends (e.g., temperature, precipitation, etc.)

3 Changes in watershed conditions (e.g., diseases, species transitions, etc.)

4 Changes in population and distribution

5 Changes in agricultural land use (e.g., irrigated agricultural areas, crop mixes, etc.)

6 Changes in urban land use (e.g., conversion, density, urbanization, etc.)

7 Changes in public land use (e.g., forest practices, grazing, wilderness areas, etc.)

8 Changes in agricultural water use efficiency

9 Changes in municipal and industrial water use efficiency

10 Changes in institutional and regulatory conditions (e.g., laws, regulations, etc.)

11 Changes to organization or management structures (e.g., state, federal, bi-national institutions) 

12 Changes in water needs for energy generation (e.g., solar, oil shale, thermal, nuclear, etc.)

13 Changes in flow-dependent ecosystem needs for Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed species

14 Changes in other flow-dependent ecosystem needs

15 Changes in social values affecting water use

16 Changes in cost of energy affecting water availability and use

17 Changes in water availability due to tribal water use and settlement of tribal water rights claims

18 Changes in water quality including physical, biological, and chemical processes

The respondents were encouraged to provide comments related to each response to aid in 

understanding the context of high or low responses. In addition, guidance was provided to the 

respondents relating to the first focal question and to the Study period (through 2060), 

consideration of current and evolving trends, and external versus internal factors. 

The survey was sent to all who participated in the driving forces list review and refinement. 

Some entities sought further input from their respective technical staffs and/or stakeholders. 

Respondents could respond to the survey anonymously, if desired, but their respective affiliation 

category was entered into a database. A total of 51 survey responses were received, with the 

affiliation category distribution as shown in table A-2. Water management entities comprised 

more than half of the responses, and conservation organizations, fishery management entities, 

and recreation entities represented approximately one-third of the responses. 
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-10 December 2012

TABLE A-2 

Summary of Respondent Affiliation Category for the Driving Force Uncertainty Survey

Respondent Category No. of Responses Received

Water Management Entities (including Reclamation) 28

Conservation Organizations 9 

Fishery Management Entities 3 

Federally Recognized Tribes and Communities 3 

Water Resources Contractors 3 

Recreation Management Entities 2 

Energy Management Entities 2 

Land Management Entity 1 

Total 51

The individual survey responses were compiled into a database, and the mean and standard 

deviation were computed for each driving force, as shown in table A-3. Driving forces that had 

the highest mean responses were classified as highly important and highly uncertain. The driving 

forces, “changes in streamflow variability and trends” (No. 1) and “changes in climate variability 

and trends” (No. 2), consistently ranked high in both importance and uncertainty. Similarly, 

“changes in population and distribution” (No. 4), consistently ranked high in importance. 

Although the sample size was relatively small for evaluating statistics, the standard deviation 

provided a measure of the differences in responses among the respondents. “Changes in 

streamflow variability and trends” (No. 1) was considered important by most respondents, as 

represented by a small standard deviation, whereas “changes in institutional and regulatory 

conditions” (No. 10) and “changes to organization or management Structures” (No. 11) had a 

wide range of responses in both importance and uncertainty. 

The results of the survey are also displayed in figure A-5. In this figure, the numbers are the 

driving forces listed in table A-1 and the plotting position is determined by the relative 

importance and relative uncertainty based on the mean of all survey responses. Driving forces 

that plotted to the upper right were believed to be highly important and highly uncertain, and 

those that plotted to the lower left were perceived by the respondents to be of lesser importance 

and lower uncertainty. The driving forces that plotted to the lower right were perceived to be of 

high importance, but had less uncertainty. 
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-11

TABLE A-3 

Summary of Responses for the Driving Forces Survey1

No. Driving Force

Importance Uncertainty

Mean

Std 

Dev Mean

Std 

Dev

1 Changes in streamflow variability and trends 4.80 0.53 4.00 1.12

2 Changes in climate variability and trends (e.g., temperature, 

precipitation, etc.)

4.43 0.94 4.24 1.01

3 Changes in watershed conditions (e.g., diseases, species transitions, 

etc.)

2.46 1.10 3.27 0.88

4 Changes in population and distribution 3.84 0.96 2.92 1.08

5 Changes in agricultural land use (e.g., irrigated agricultural areas, crop 

mixes, etc.)

3.71 1.17 2.73 1.00

6 Changes in urban land use (e.g., conversion, density, urbanization, etc.) 2.65 0.96 2.38 1.02

7 Changes in public land use (e.g., forest practices, grazing, wilderness 

areas, etc.)

2.11 0.94 2.65 0.99

8 Changes in agricultural water use efficiency 3.49 1.19 2.51 0.87

9 Changes in municipal and industrial water use efficiency 3.31 1.12 2.39 0.84

10 Changes in institutional and regulatory conditions (e.g., laws, 

regulations, etc.)

3.54 1.24 3.54 1.25

11 Changes to organization or management structures (e.g., state, federal, 

bi-national institutions) 

2.52 1.25 2.69 1.22

12 Changes in water needs for energy generation (e.g., solar, oil shale, 

thermal, nuclear, etc.)

3.62 1.11 3.53 1.08

13 Changes in flow-dependent ecosystem needs ESA-listed species 3.55 1.00 3.39 1.11

14 Changes in other flow-dependent ecosystem needs 3.06 1.13 3.17 1.19

15 Changes in social values affecting water use 3.23 1.22 3.22 1.23

16 Changes in cost of energy affecting water availability and use 2.92 1.16 2.64 1.22

17 Changes in water availability due to tribal water use and settlement of 

tribal water rights claims

2.95 1.18 2.91 1.05

18 Changes in water quality, including physical, biological, and chemical 

processes

2.76 1.25 2.89 1.27

1 Respondent survey rating scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest.
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-12 December 2012

FIGURE A-5 

Plot of Mean Results from Driving Forces Survey

Because of the differences in the number of respondents among groups, results based on 

particular respondent groups were evaluated. Figure A-6 represents the results from water 

management entity respondents (top) and the results from the conservation organizations and 

fishery management entities (bottom). In this figure, the hollow circles represent the ranking 

based on all responses, and the shaded circles represent the responses from the particular 

respondent group.

While the sample sizes were small when partitioning in this fashion, there was a strong 

commonality of the results among these groups. For example, both respondent groups rated the 

streamflow variability (No. 1) and climate change (No. 2) driving forces as the highest, despite 

differences in absolute scores. Similarly, water needs for energy generation (No. 12) and flowdependent needs for ESA-listed species (No. 13) were rated highly important and highly 

uncertain by both groups. 

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Uncertainty

Importance

Driving Forces Survey Results 

All Respondents

(18 Driving Forces based on Expected Future Importance and Uncertainty)
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-13

FIGURE A-6 

Plot of Mean Results from Driving Forces Survey Water Management Respondents (top, 31 respondents), and Environmental 

Organizations and Fishery Management Agencies (bottom, 12 respondents)

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Water Management Respondents

(18 Driving Forces based on Expected Future Importance and Uncertainty)

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(18 Driving Forces based on Expected Future Importance and Uncertainty)
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-14 December 2012

4.4 Identify Critical Uncertainties 

Consideration of the relative rankings based on the survey responses led to identification of the 

critical uncertainties, as shown in the oval in figure A-7. The driving forces that were obviously 

located in the upper right in the figure were selected as critical uncertainties. For the driving 

forces near the middle of the graph, judgment and expertise were used to decide whether they 

should be considered as critical uncertainties. 

The initial list of critical uncertainties was checked to see if the results would have been different 

based on responses of individual respondent groups. Although there were some differences in 

terms of the relative magnitude of the ratings, it was concluded that the driving forces 

representing the critical uncertainties would not be different based on subsets of the survey 

responses. In general, the decision was made to be more inclusive, and the oval was expanded to 

include several of the driving forces in the middle range. 

FIGURE A-7 

Plot of Mean Results from Driving Forces Survey and Selected Critical Uncertainties

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Uncertainty

Importance

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All Respondents

(18 Driving Forces based on Expected Future Importance and Uncertainty)

4.5 Associate Critical Uncertainties with Water Supply and Water Demand

Water supply and water demand are the key factors affecting the future reliability of the 

Colorado River system. Although critical uncertainties may affect both supply and demand, each 

critical uncertainty was associated with the factor thought to be most affected. For critical 
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-15

uncertainties that have significant impact to both supply and demand, adjustments to parameters 

affecting both water supply and water demand were made. 

The critical uncertainties were first grouped by the broader categories of driving forces. Then 

each driving force category was aligned with either water supply or water demand, depending on 

its anticipated area of greatest influence. The resulting association of critical uncertainties is 

shown in table A-4. The alignment of driving forces into water supply or water demand was 

performed to provide focus to the evaluation of the driving force, but the subsequent 

quantification of scenarios considered important linkages across water supply and water demand. 

For example, although changes in climate variability and trends will affect water demand 

(primarily through increased evapotranspiration due to increase in temperature), the potential 

influence is considered greater on water supply. For scenarios that explicitly included climate 

change, the associated demands were adjusted based on temperature-related effects on 

evapotranspiration (see Technical Report C – Water Demand Assessment).

TABLE A-4 

Association of Critical Uncertainties with Key Factors in System Reliability 

Key Basin Study Driving Forces Identified in Survey

General Driving 

Force Category

Key Factor In 

System Reliability 

Most Affected

Changes in streamflow variability and trends [No. 1]

Changes in climate variability and trends (e.g., temperature, 

precipitation, etc.) [No. 2]

Natural Systems 

(Hydroclimate)

Water Supply

Changes in population and distribution [No. 4]

Changes in agricultural land use (e.g., irrigated agricultural areas, 

crop mixes, etc.) [No. 5]

Demographics and 

Land Use

Water Demand

Changes in agricultural water use efficiency [No. 8]

Changes in municipal and industrial water use efficiency [No. 9]

Changes in water needs for energy generation (e.g., solar, oil 

shale, thermal, nuclear, etc.) [No. 12]

Technology and 

Economics

Water Demand

Changes in institutional and regulatory conditions (e.g., laws, 

regulations, etc.) [No. 10]

Changes in flow-dependent ecosystem needs for ESA-listed 

species [No. 13]

Changes in other flow-dependent ecosystem needs [No. 14]

Changes in social values affecting water use [No. 15]

Changes in water availability due to tribal water use and 

settlement of tribal water rights claims [No. 17]

Social and 

Governance

Water Demand

4.6 Develop Water Supply and Water Demand Scenarios

After determining the associations of the critical uncertainties to the key factors of water supply 

and demand, additional stakeholder and subject matter expertise was sought to complete the 

scenario development process through the Water Supply and Water Demand Sub-Teams. 

Each sub-team had different requirements and therefore followed different steps, as shown in 
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-16 December 2012

figure A-4. These steps are discussed in Technical Report B – Water Supply Assessment and 

Technical Report C – Water Demand Assessment, respectively.

The following scenarios were considered in the Study: 

Water Supply Scenarios Water Demand Scenarios

● Observed Resampled

● Paleo Resampled

● Paleo Conditioned 

● Downscaled General Circulation

● Model (GCM) Projected

● Current Projected (A)

● Slow Growth (B)

● Rapid Growth (C1 and C2) 

● Enhanced Environment (D1 and D2) 

The themes associated with each scenario are described below.

The water supply scenarios were focused around the key driving forces in the “natural systems” 

category. These driving forces relate primarily to streamflow variability and trends, and climate 

variability and trends. Reclamation has conducted research and development relating to the 

uncertainty of future hydrologic conditions, and these previous efforts were incorporated to the 

extent possible. The water supply scenarios used significant information from the observed 

record of streamflow, reconstructions of streamflow from tree-ring records, and projections of 

future hydroclimate conditions using downscaled global climate model results. The themes 

associated with the water supply scenarios are:

• Observed Record Trends and Variability (Observed Resampled): Future hydrologic 

trends and variability are similar to the past approximately 100 years. 

• Paleo Record Trends and Variability (Paleo Resampled): Future hydrologic trends and 

variability are represented by reconstructions of streamflow for a much longer period in the 

past (nearly 1,250 years) that show expanded variability. 

• Observed Record Trends and Increased Variability (Paleo Conditioned): Future 

hydrologic trends and variability are represented by a blend of the wet-dry states of the 

longer paleo-reconstructed period (nearly 1,250 years), but magnitudes are more similar to 

the observed period (about 100 years). 

• Downscaled GCM Projected Trends and Variability (Downscaled GCM Projected):

Future climate will continue to warm, with regional precipitation and temperature trends 

represented through an ensemble of future downscaled GCM projections and simulated 

hydrology.

The assumptions, methods, and results for each of these water supply scenarios are discussed in 

detail in Technical Report B – Water Supply Assessment. 

The water demand scenarios were focused on the driving forces related to the general driving 

force categories, of “demographics and land use,” “technology and economics,” and “social and 

governance.” The Water Demand Sub-Team identified the parameters that most significantly 

influence each critical uncertainty within the demand-focused categories. The range of parameter 

characteristics and the logical combinations of those characteristics were explored by the Water 

Demand Sub-Team, resulting in the following themes:
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-17

• Current Projected (A): Growth, development patterns, and institutions continue along 

recent trends

• Slow Growth (B): Slow growth with emphasis on economic efficiency 

• Rapid Growth (C1 and C2): Economic resurgence (population and energy) and current 

preferences toward human and environmental values 

• Enhanced Environment (D1 and D2): Expanded environmental awareness and stewardship 

with growing economy 

The assumptions, methods, and storylines for each of the water demand scenarios are discussed 

in detail in Technical Report C – Water Demand Assessment. 

5.0 Conclusions 

To assess the future reliability of the Colorado River system, the water supply and water demand 

scenarios were combined to yield scenarios for both supply and demand, as depicted in figure A8 and described in detail in Technical Report A – Water Supply Assessment and Technical Report 

B – Water Demand Assessment. Each water supply scenario, relating primarily to the driving 

forces of streamflow and climate variability and trends, was combined with each water demand 

scenario, relating to “demographics and land use,” “technology and economics,” and “social and 

governance” driving forces to capture a more-complete description of the range of future 

uncertainty influencing the Colorado River system. All combinations of water supply and water 

demand scenarios were used to assess system reliability for a sufficiently broad range of 

plausible futures. 

FIGURE A-8 

Illustration of Combined Water Supply and Water Demand Scenarios
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A-18 December 2012

6.0 References 

Alcamo, J. and Gallopin, G. 2009. United Nations World Water Assessment Programme, 

Building a 2nd Generation of World Water Scenarios. 

Mara, R. and T. Thomure. 2009. “Scenario Planning: Making Strategic Decisions in Uncertain 

Times.” Southwest Hydrology. May/June. 

Timpe, C. and M.J.J. Scheepers. 2003. SUSTELNET: A Look into the Future: Scenarios for 

Distributed Generation in Europe. 

Water Utility Climate Alliance. 2010. Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating 

Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning. 
Technical Report A — Scenario Development

December 2012 A-19

Disclaimer

The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Study) is funded jointly by the Bureau of 

Reclamation (Reclamation) and the seven Colorado River Basin States (Basin States). The purpose of 

the Study is to analyze water supply and demand imbalances throughout the Colorado River Basin and 

those adjacent areas of the Basin States that receive Colorado River water through 2060; and develop, 

assess, and evaluate options and strategies to address the current and projected imbalances. 

Reclamation and the Basin States intend that the Study will promote and facilitate cooperation and 

communication throughout the Basin regarding the reliability of the system to continue to meet Basin 

needs and the strategies that may be considered to ensure that reliability. Reclamation and the Basin 

States recognize the Study was constrained by funding, timing, and technological and other limitations, 

and in some cases presented specific policy questions and issues, particularly related to modeling 

and interpretation of the provisions of the Law of the River during the course of the Study. In such 

cases, Reclamation and the Basin States developed and incorporated assumptions to further complete 

the Study. Where possible, a range of assumptions was typically used to identify the sensitivity of the 

results to those assumptions.

Nothing in the Study, however, is intended for use against any Basin State, any federally recognized 

tribe, the federal government or the Upper Colorado River Commission in administrative, judicial or 

other proceedings to evidence legal interpretations of the Law of the River. As such, assumptions 

contained in the Study or any reports generated during the Study do not, and shall not, represent a legal 

position or interpretation by the Basin States, any federally recognized tribe, federal government or 

Upper Colorado River Commission as it relates to the Law of the River. Furthermore, nothing in the 

Study is intended to, nor shall the Study be construed so as to, interpret, diminish or modify the rights 

of any Basin State, any federally recognized tribe, the federal government, or the Upper Colorado River 

Commission under federal or state law or administrative rule, regulation or guideline, including without 

limitation the Colorado River Compact (45 Stat. 1057), the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact (63 

Stat. 31), the Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, Treaty 

Between the United States of America and Mexico (Treaty Series 994, 59 Stat. 1219), the United 

States/Mexico agreement in Minute No. 242 of August 30, 1973 (Treaty Series 7708; 24 UST 1968), or 

Minute No. 314 of November 26, 2008, or Minute No. 318 of December 17, 2010, or Minute No. 319 

of November 20, 2012, the Consolidated Decree entered by the Supreme Court of the United States in 

Arizona v. California (547 U.S 150 (2006)), the Boulder Canyon Project Act (45 Stat. 1057), the 

Boulder Canyon Project Adjustment Act (54 Stat. 774; 43 U.S.C. 618a), the Colorado River Storage 

Project Act of 1956 (70 Stat. 105; 43 U.S.C. 620), the Colorado River Basin Project Act of 1968 

(82 Stat. 885; 43 U.S.C. 1501), the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act (88 Stat. 266; 43 

U.S.C. 1951) as amended, the Hoover Power Plant Act of 1984 (98 Stat. 1333), the Colorado River 

Floodway Protection Act (100 Stat. 1129; 43 U.S.C. 1600), the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 

(Title XVIII of Public Law 102-575, 106 Stat. 4669), or the Hoover Power Allocation Act of 2011 

(Public Law 112-72). In addition, nothing in the Study is intended to, nor shall the Study be construed 

so as to, interpret, diminish or modify the rights of any federally recognized tribe, pursuant to 

federal court decrees, state court decrees, treaties, agreements, executive orders and federal trust 

responsibility. Reclamation and the Basin States continue to recognize the entitlement and right of 

each State and any federally recognized tribe under existing law, to use and develop the water of the 

Colorado River system.
Appendix A1

Driving Forces Survey

December 2012 A1-1

Appendix A1 — Driving Forces Survey

1.0 Instructions/Guidance for Completing the 

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and 

Demand Study Driving Forces Survey

1.1 Survey Objectives

The Plan of Study, provided in Driving forces represent the key factors that affect the reliability 

of the Colorado River system over time. The attached survey is intended to receive input from 

representatives of water agencies, other federal and state agencies, Native American Tribes and 

communities, other stakeholders, and other experts on the relative importance and uncertainty of 

each of the driving forces over the next 50 years. The overall objective of the survey is to 

identify the critical uncertainties that will form the basis of storylines and scenarios for the 

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Study). Critical uncertainties are key 

driving forces that are both highly important and highly uncertain.

The purpose and objectives for the Study can be expressed in two fundamental questions:

1. What is the future reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the needs of Basin 

resources through 2060?

2. What are the options and strategies to mitigate future risks to these resources?

The first question relates directly to incorporating uncertainty and is the focus of the scenario 

development process. This survey is an important element in that process. The second question 

relates to management responses to the potential impacts under uncertain futures and is the focus 

of the water management option and strategy development. This question will be addressed in 

the “options and strategies” phase of the Study. 

1.2 Survey Format

The survey includes a list of driving forces that influence the future reliability of the Colorado 

River system. The respondent is requested to independently rate (using a scale of 1 through 5, 

with 5 being the highest) the relative “importance” and “uncertainty” associated with each 

driving force with respect to the key question or focal issue of the Study being addressed through 

the scenario development process:

Importance (1 through 5): Rate the relative importance of the driving forces to the 

reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the needs of Basin resources through 2060

Uncertainty (1 through 5): Rate the relative uncertainty of the driving forces in the 

Colorado River Basin through 2060

The respondent is encouraged to provide comments related to each response. Such comments 

will help the Study Team better analyze the data received, particularly for high and low ratings.
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A1-2 December 2012

1.3 Guidance for Completing the Survey

The driving forces list is intended to be relatively broad to capture the large-scale mechanisms 

that influence the system reliability. Not every variation on a driving force category is necessary 

at this point in the scenario development process as details of the critical uncertainties will be 

explored in the next steps of the scenario development process. However, please provide any 

comments you have that may help us better understand your views regarding a particular driving 

force. 

Some additional guidance may be helpful in the completion of the survey:

1. Relate all ratings to the key question/focal issue

a. What is the reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the needs of Basin resources 

through 2060?

2. Consider the current influence of the driving force in addition to evolving trends and the 

range of effects of the driving force through 2060

a. How important is the driving force on the system today? What are the current trends in 

these forces? Are the future trends likely to following the same trajectory? What is the 

magnitude of these influences? 

3. Distinguish between “external” factors (i.e., those factors that are largely outside of the 

control of water management entities) and “internal” factors (i.e., those factors that are 

largely within the control of water management entities and will be addressed in the “options 

and strategies” phase of the Study)

a. Consider each factor in the context of the forces that are largely “external” to the control 

of water management entities.

4. Keep your ratings of importance and uncertainty separate

a. Importance is a relative measure of the magnitude of the influence of a driving force on 

system reliability.

b. Uncertainty is a relative measure of the likelihood of occurrence of the driving force over 

the planning horizon.

5. Keep in mind that the survey is a relative comparison

a. You may wish to make two passes through the survey—the first to gauge an initial 

baseline and the second to align the relative rating of all driving forces. 
Appendix A1 — Driving Forces Survey

December 2012 A1-3

1.4 Complete and Return the Survey

Please complete the survey, indicating 1 through 5 in the “importance” and “uncertainty” 

columns for each driving force. Please add comments that will help to convey the reasons for and 

the intent of a specific rating.

The survey responses can either be typed directly into the form or filled out by hand. 

Please return the survey to Amber Cunningham via email (AZCunningham@usbr.gov) or fax to 

(702) 293-8156 by 12:00 PM PDT on Thursday August 26. 

Please call Amber at (702) 293-8472 if you have questions/problems.
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A1-4 December 2012

TABLE A1-1

Table of Driving Forces and Survey Relating to Importance and Uncertainty

Name/Organization (optional):

Importance (1–5): Rate the relative importance of the driving forces to the reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the needs of Basin resources through 

2060

Uncertainty (1–5): Rate the relative uncertainty of the driving forces in the Colorado River Basin through 2060

Importance Rating Guidance: 1=Relatively Unimportant, 3=Important, 5=Extremely Important

Uncertainty Rating Guidance: 1=Relatively Certain, 3=Uncertain, 5=Highly Uncertain

NA=Enter “NA” if you are unfamiliar with the driving force (Note: will not be included in final rating)

No. Driving Forces Importance Uncertainty Comment

1 Changes in streamflow variability and trends

2 Changes in climate variability and trends (e.g., temperature, precipitation, etc.)

3 Changes in watershed conditions (e.g., diseases, species transitions, etc.)

4 Changes in population and distribution

5

Changes in agricultural land use (e.g., irrigated agricultural areas, crop mixes, 

etc.)

Table continued on next page 
Appendix A1 — Driving Forces Survey

December 2012 A1-5

No. Driving Forces Importance Uncertainty Comment

6 Changes in urban land use (e.g., conversion, density, urbanization, etc.)

7

Changes in public land use (e.g., forest practices, grazing, wilderness areas, 

etc.)

8 Changes in agricultural water use efficiency

9 Changes in municipal and industrial water use efficiency

10 Changes in institutional and regulatory conditions (e.g., laws, regulations, etc.)

11 Changes to organization or management structures (e.g., state, federal, binational institutions, etc.)

12 Changes in water needs for energy generation (e.g., solar, oil shale, thermal, 

nuclear, etc.)

13 Changes in flow-dependent ecosystem needs for ESA-listed species

14 Changes in other flow-dependent ecosystem needs

Table continued on next page 
Colorado River Basin 

Water Supply and Demand Study

A1-6 December 2012

No. Driving Forces Importance Uncertainty Comment

15 Changes in social values affecting water use

16 Changes in cost of energy affecting water availability and use

17 Changes in water availability due to tribal water use and settlement of tribal 

water rights claims

18 Changes in water quality including physical, biological, and chemical processes