1 

Technical Support Document: 

Resource Adequacy and Reliability Analysis 

August 2015 

This document describes resource adequacy and reliability impacts of the final rule 

emission guidelines issued under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, also known as the Clean 

Power Plan. As used here, the term resource adequacy is defined as the provision for adequate 

generating resources to meet projected load and generating reserve requirements in each power 

region1, while reliability includes the ability to deliver the resources to the loads, such that the 

overall power grid remains stable. 

It is important to recognize that the final rule provides multiple flexibilities that preserve 

the ability of responsible authorities to maintain electric reliability, as well as a provision to 

ensure that electric reliability is adequately maintained in the case of extreme circumstances, 

amongst other changes to the final rule that will assist states and other authorities with ensuring 

adequate supplies of electricity and maintaining electric reliability. For more detail on how the 

final CPP addresses reliability, see Section VIII of the final rule preamble. The results presented 

in this document show that power system impacts of the final rule on system operations, under 

conditions preserving resource adequacy, are modest and manageable. 

First, the final rule includes critical timing adjustments in response to comment about 

resource adequacy and reliability. In particular, the start date for the first compliance period was 

moved from 2020 to 2022. In addition, building block 2 and building block 3 are both gradually 

phased in starting in 2022 to give EGUs additional time to make adjustments, including any 

investments needed for the purpose of ensuring resource adequacy and reliability. 

Second, as with the proposal, the final rule offers considerable flexibility to both states 

and EGUs. States are given broad latitude to design plans that fit their unique circumstances, 

including taking into account any resource adequacy or reliability constraints they may face. 

One particularly important example of this latitude is that states are encouraged to implement 

mass-based or rate-based plans that allow EGUs to take advantage of trading both within each 

 

1

 As analyzed in this document, power regions correspond to aggregates of IPM regions corresponding to NERC 

assessment areas. 
2 

state and across states. Moreover, states are given additional flexibility to manage any near-term 

resource adequacy constraints by taking advantage of averaging provisions during the interim 

multi-year compliance period from 2022-2029. 

Finally, the Reliability Safety Valve (RSV) provisions in the final rule provide additional 

flexibilities and provisions that assure states can adequately manage any specific reliability 

challenges that may arise. 

In sum, states can choose different ways of implementing the rule guidelines to meet their 

targets while meeting their specific needs and maintaining electric reliability. For more detail on 

the RSV and other ways in which the how the final CPP addresses reliability, see Section VIII of 

the final rule preamble. 

The results presented in this document further demonstrate, for the specific cases 

illustrated in the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), that the implementation of this rule can be 

achieved without undermining resource adequacy or reliability. The focus of the analysis is on 

comparing two illustrative state plan scenarios from the RIA to a base case (absent the rule 

requirements) that is assumed to be adequate and reliable. In this framework, the emphasis is on 

the incremental changes in the power system that are projected to occur under the presence of the 

rule.2

 The EPA uses the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to project likely future electricity 

market conditions with and without the proposed rule.3

IPM is a multi-regional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. 

electric power sector. It provides forecasts of least cost capacity expansion, electricity dispatch, 

and emission control strategies while meeting energy demand and environmental, transmission, 

dispatch, and reliability constraints. The model is designed to reflect electricity markets as 

accurately as possible. The EPA uses the best available information from utilities, industry 

experts, gas and coal market experts, financial institutions, and government statistics as the basis 

for the detailed power sector modeling in IPM. The model documentation provides additional 

 

2

 Both the base and policy cases start from input data on the expected state of the fleet of power plants in 2016 and 

assume certain planned retirements and additions happen by the end of 2015; the analysis focuses on the impacts of 

retirements that are projected by the IPM model in the 2020, 2025 and 2030. See the documentation of the NEEDS 

data base at epa.gov/powersectormodeling for information on what retirements and additions are assumed to occur 

by the end of 2015. 

3

 See final rule Regulatory Impact Analysis for more detail on the power sector impacts of the final CPP. 
3 

information on the assumptions discussed here as well as all other model assumptions and 

inputs.4

IPM’s least-cost dispatch solution is designed to ensure generation resource adequacy, 

either by using existing resources or through the construction of new resources. IPM addresses 

reliable delivery of generation resources for the delivery of electricity between the 64 IPM 

regions, based on current and planned transmission capacity, by setting limits to the ability to 

transfer power between regions using the bulk power transmission system. Within each model 

region, IPM assumes that adequate transmission capacity exists to deliver any resources located 

in, or transferred to, the region. This document focusses on key regional results important to 

management of the power system. For a more complete presentation of the broad power sector 

impacts of the proposed rule, see the Regulatory Impact Analysis. 

Overview 

In the final rule, the EPA is establishing emission guidelines for states to use in 

developing plans to address greenhouse gas emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired electric 

generating units. Specifically, the EPA is proposing category-specific performance rates for CO2

emissions from power plants, as well goals for states to use in developing plans to meet the 

guidelines. See final rule preamble for more detail on the final CPP structure and rule 

requirements. This TSD uses the same scenarios and years of analysis contained in the RIA.5

The scenarios include a base case (no CPP), a rate-based state plan scenario and a mass-based 

state plan scenario. For purposes of this resource adequacy and reliability assessment, estimates 

and projections are taken from those same scenarios and years as shown in the RIA (2020, 2025, 

and 2030). 

 

4 Detailed information and documentation of EPA’s Base Case using IPM (v5.13), including all the underlying 

assumptions, data sources, and architecture parameters can be found on EPA’s website at: 

http://www.epa.gov/powersectormodeling/BaseCasev513.html

5

 See Chapter 3 of the RIA for additional detail on the scenarios analyzed. 
4 

CPP Rate-Based Scenarios 

Summary of Changes in Operational Capacity 

Total operational capacity is lower in the CPP scenario, primarily from the reduced need 

for existing and new capacity as a result of increases in energy efficiency. These increases in 

energy efficiency make possible increases in retirements compared to the base case. Since most 

regions currently have capacity above their target reserve margins, most of these retirements are 

absorbed by a reduction in excess reserves in the early years. For illustrative purposes, the 2025 

projection period, the first period to fall entirely within the compliance period, is discussed first,

followed by discussion of 2020 and 2030. Operational generating capacity6

 changes from the 

base case in 2025 are summarized below: 

Table 1. Operational Capacity Summary in 2025 

Base case operational capacity (MW) 1,037,223

 Minus Retirements in CPP Rate Case: 

 (-) Coal -22,984

 (-) Oil-Gas Steam -9,264

 (-) Combustion Turbine -1,942

 (-) Combined Cycle -1,643

 (-) Nuclear -1,128

 (-) Less New Capacity due to EE Reduction -12,626

Equals Policy Case Operational Capacity 988,7647

Since the model must maintain adequate reserves in each region, a portion of the reduced 

operational capacity in the CPP rate based policy case is taken from reduced need for reserves 

compared to the base case. In order to maintain resource adequacy in each region where existing 

resources retire, the model relies on any excess reserve that are available from continuing to 

operate existing capacity, additions of new capacity, reduced total resource requirements from 

increases in energy efficiency, and the ability to shift transmission among regions as the 

 

6

 Operational capacity is any existing, new or retrofitted capacity that is not retired. 

7

 Numbers in this table may not sum to numbers in Table A1 due to independent rounding and small classification 

differences between the base and policy cases. 
5 

generating capacity mix changes. As the table shows, the reduced resource needs permit lower 

capacity additions even though there are substantial increases in retirements. Each of these CPP 

rate based policy case changes is discussed further below. 

Reduction in Reserve Requirements and Excess Reserves 

IPM uses a target reserve margin in each region8 as the basis for determining how much 

capacity to keep operational in order to preserve resource adequacy. IPM retires capacity if it is 

no longer needed to provide energy for load or to provide capacity to meet reserve margin during 

the planning horizon of the projections. Since current regional reserves are generally higher than 

the target reserve margin for the region, and increased energy efficiency will reduce the need for 

reserves, IPM may retire reserve capacity in 2025 if it is not economic to use it to maintain 

adequate reserve margins. Existing resources may also be more expensive, compared to 

alternatives such as building new capacity or transferring capacity from another region. As a 

result, many of the plants that are projected to retire in 2025 will not need to be replaced. 

Because existing plants eventually retire in most regions, and IPM builds no more than what it 

needs to maintain a target reserve margin in each region, the actual reserve margins tend to 

approach the target reserve margins over time. 

Table 1 above shows that operational generating capacity is reduced by 48,587MW (4.8 

percent) nationwide in 2025 under the policy.9

 The majority of this reduction is the result of 

decreases in the reserve requirements from energy efficiency under the final rule; in 2025 new 

energy efficiency under the final rule contributes 45,085 MW to reserve capacity10 (see Table B1 

for regional detail). Moreover, these reductions are from energy efficiency that is available in all 

hours, not just at peak, so it can substitute for existing or new baseload capacity. A reduction of 

4.7 percent in 2025 will therefore have little overall impact, particularly given the length of time 

 

8

 Reserve margin targets are generally based on the NERC 2010 10 Year Assessments for the region, except in cases 

where there are more stringent state requirements or other exceptions. 

9

 Regional data on operational capacity is shown in Table A1 of the Appendix. 

10 The reserve contribution to reserve capacity requirements from energy efficiency is determined by the reduced 

peak demand and the target reserve margin in each region. For example, if peak demand in reduced by 100 MW 

and the reserve margin percentage in a region is 15%, the reduction in reserve capacity requirements is 115MW. 
6 

available to plan for any system changes. Moreover, retirements are distributed throughout the 

power grid, so any impacts are expected to be small at the regional level.11 

Although there are substantial existing regional variations in reserve margin, IPM adjusts 

regional operating capacities in 2025 to meet the specific target reserve margin in each region, 

through changes in the level of retirements, construction of new generating capacity, or transfers 

of capacity among regions to meet the specific reserve margin in each region. Each of these 

adjustments in the 2025 projections is described below. 

Changes in Retirements and New Capacity Additions in the CPP Scenarios12

The incremental retirements in the final rule case are shown above in Table 1; the 36,931 

MW of retirements are in addition to 69,254MW of coal and 12,973MW of oil/gas retirements 

already occurring in the base case. 

By 2025, the increased level of energy efficiency in the CPP case, compared to the base 

case, leads to lower levels of overall new capacity additions (shown regionally in Table A5). 

Renewable additions are approximately the same in both the base and policy cases, largely a 

result of reduced demand compared to the base case. The largest decreases in new capacity are 

in NGCC (7,808MW) and CT (3,131MW). Although there can be local grid reliability issues in 

replacing some units, these are expected to be manageable within the normal reliability planning 

and management time frames provided by the flexible resource options and time frames in the 

rule. These retirements and additions in the projections are the result of economic planning for 

energy and capacity needs modeled in the projections, they are not forced on individual units. In 

particular, new additions in a base case scenario that do not occur in the policy scenario 

projections might, in reality, be retained under a policy if local reliability conditions rendered 

this the most appropriate choice. This rule does not prevent generation owners from shifting 

retirements and additions among specific sources to ensure reliability in such circumstances. 

 

11 See maps of IPM regions and NERC Assessment Regions, and the table of target and projected reserve margins in 

the Appendix C. IPM regions are based on the regions NERC uses for regional assessments. These Assessment 

Regions are used for the Appendix tables in this document. 

12 Retirement and additions in this section are all incremental to the base case in 2025; the MW values represent 

model projections of responses to the imposition of the policy, not currently announced retirements or additions that 

are currently planned or under construction. 
7 

Reserve Transfers 

In cases where it is economic to transfer reserves from a neighboring region, rather than 

supply reserves from within a region, IPM will transfer reserves, subject to summer and winter 

limits that are designed to ensure that these reserves can be transferred reliably. The transfer of 

reserves can occur, for example, if a region retires capacity that was used in the base case to meet 

reserve requirements, but a neighboring region has lower cost reserves that are not needed for its 

own reserve requirements. To examine these transfers, the EPA analyzed the change in net 

transfers from each region, where the net transfer for the base and policy cases is measured by 

the reserves sent to neighboring regions. In these cases, a positive value signifies the reserve 

capacity sent to other regions is larger than the reserve capacity received from other regions 

(sending and receiving regions can be different), while a negative value signifies that the 

capacity received is larger than the capacity sent. Thus, the value measures the degree to which 

resources in the region were reserved for use by other regions (positive value), or where the 

capacity to meet load in the region was served by resources in other regions (negative value). In 

each case these reserve transfers represent the use of the transmission system on a firm basis for 

at least a season. 

To look at the impact of the CPP case on transfers, the measure used was the change in 

the summer reserves sent in the policy case compared to the base case. To develop a relative 

measure of the impact of the policy, the change in reserves was measured as a percentage of load 

in the sending region. This percentage gives an indication of the significance of the policy for 

changes in the grid. In general, the percentage changes in the final rule are below the changes in 

the proposed rule, and all are below 5%.13

 

Using this measure, the largest percentage changes in reserve transfers are in the 

Northwest (4.3%), SERC-North (-3.5%), and FRCC (3.1%). The change in the Northwest is 

attributable primarily to change in transfers from the Pacific Northwest IPM region to California, 

where an additional 2000MW are transferred to Northern California, including 1000MW shifted 

 

13 See the Resource Adequacy and Reliability Analysis for the proposed rule. A level of 5% was used as a screen in 

that analysis; given the length of time to plan for compliance with this rule, a 5% shift is expected to be manageable 

within normal system planning timeframes. In the proposed rule TSD, there were three regions above the 5% 

threshold. 
8 

from Southern California (LADWP). The net change of 1,134(MW) occurs, in part, as a result 

of additional operating capacity made available by increased energy efficiency in the policy case 

compared to the base case. This shift does not indicate any reliability challenges, as the total 

transfers of 3,499MW in the policy case remain substantially below the transfer limit of 

4,200MW. 

The SERC regions and FRCC have shifts around three percent, with some areas 

increasing net transfers and others decreasing. These areas also saw shifts in transfers in the 

modeling for the proposed rule, but the changes in this final rule have reduced these shifts to 

modest transfers compared to the proposal. In general, the shifts under the final rule show 

transfers from the Southeastern areas with greater natural gas resources available – FRCC and 

SERC-SE – toward northern areas with greater amounts of coal -- TVA and Kentucky. These 

transfers in the modeling remain well below the interregional transfers limits and 3 percent or 

less of the regional load in each case, and it is reasonable to expect them to be manageable, if 

needed, given the length of time available. 

CPP Rate-Based Scenario in 2020 and 2030 

There are other model projection periods that include years that fall in the period for 

compliance with the rule. The 2020 projections include the years 2019 through 2022, so one of 

the years in the period falls in the compliance period. EPA examined the information for the rate 

scenario for 2020 corresponding to the rate scenario in 2025. This information is shown the 

tables in Appendix A, which correspond to the tables for the 2025 case in Appendix B. Since the 

projections are representative of the entire four year period, it is difficult to draw firm 

conclusions with regard to impacts on reliability resulting from the rule. This is because most of 

the period is outside the compliance period of the final rule, and there can be no direct conflict 

with the rule except in the very last year of the projection period. The results can be compared 

below with the 2025 results for purposes of illustration. 

 The differences between 2020 and 2025 in the CPP rate scenario are driven by the fact 

that IPM modeling retires capacity from the start of the modeling period in 2016, based on 

projections that assume complete information about the future and precise economic planning. It 

thus assumes that capacity retires at the earliest possible moment that it becomes possible to do 
9 

so, so that excess reserves are used up and reserve margins can fall to target levels earlier than 

expected in practice. Nevertheless, in 2020, seven regions maintain margins above their levels in 

2025 (See Table A3). This is consistent with the lower level of overall retirements in 2020 

compared to 2025 (24,567MW compared to 36,961MW in 2025), so the modeling confirms that 

the any potential resource adequacy pressures from the final rule are not seen until the 

projections for 2025. 

 Results for the rate scenario in 2030 are contained in Appendix C. Reserve margins in 

the policy case in 2030 are essentially unchanged (less than 0.5% difference in all regions) from 

2025, reflecting the fact that most regions were already at their target margins in 2025 rate 

scenario. Base case margins decline from 2025 to 2030, as margins above targets are reduced, so 

that the base case and policy case overall national margins are less than 1 percent different 

(Table C3). There continue to be more retirements in the policy case relative to the base case in 

2030 (Incremental retirements of 41,009MW in 2030 compared to 36,961MW in 2025, an 

increase of 5,048 MW). These retirements are offset by a corresponding combination of new 

energy efficiency and changes in new capacity. In 2025, there were 12,626 MW fewer new 

capacity additions in the CPP case; in 2030 there were 16,964 MW fewer: a net decrease of an 

incremental 4,338 MW (over the base case) in the 2030 case compared to the comparable 2025 

figure. However, the increase in the contribution of energy efficiency to reserve margin capacity 

was considerably greater than the combined decrease in new capacity additions and increase in 

retirements in 2030: the contribution of new energy efficiency to reserve margin in 2030 was 

77,741 MW compared to 45,085 MW in 2025 (See Tables B1 and C1 in the Appendices), an 

increase of 22,656 MW. 

The generation mix in incremental capacity changes compared to 2025: compared to the 

base case there less NGCC capacity (7,808 MW less in 2025, 30,080 MW in 2030) and more 

solar (1,628 less in 2025, 19,970 more in 2030). Given the long planning horizon of 2030, there 

will be adequate time to plan for potential shifts in the mix of demand and supply resources as 

these evolve over time. None of these results suggest there will be reasons for concern over the 

management of resource adequacy 

 
10 

CPP Mass-Based Scenarios 

The EPA also examined the mass scenario modeling results to identify differences with 

the rate scenario potential impacts. The results for the CPP mass-based scenarios are contained 

in Appendices D through F for the projection years 2020, 2025 and 2030. These tables 

correspond to the tables for the CPP Rate-Based scenarios in Appendices A through C. 

As expected, rate and mass cases showed very similar patterns in total operating and 

reserve capacity, since the IPM model must serve the same loads and ensure the same reserve 

margins in each case. In 2025, total operating capacity between rate and mass cases differs by 

less than one percent and regional operating capacities are within 5 percent except for the BASN 

regions, where the percentage difference is 8.6%, the result of retirement of a resource (coal) in 

Utah, which is offset by increased transmission capacity transfers. Reserve capacity and 

projected reserve margins for the mass scenario (Tables E2 and E3) follow a pattern similar to 

operating capacity: totals are within 1% of the projections for the corresponding outputs rate 

scenario and regional reserve capacities are under 5 percent. 

Differences between the scenarios develop in the types of capacity that are retired and in 

the amount and types of new capacity built in 2025. The mass scenario results show more 

incremental retirements of coal capacity (29,319 MW compared to 22,984 MW in the rate 

scenario) and in Oil-Gas capacity (10,421 MW compared to 9,264 MW). The mass scenario also 

results in more new NGCC and CT capacity, and less new wind and solar capacity. The mass 

scenario still is projected to have a decrease in new capacity compared to the base case, but the 

decrease is only 9,971 MW compared to the 12,626 MW in the rate scenario. No reliability 

concerns are raised by these differences.14

 

The patterns of transfers are also similar. In the mass scenario, there is somewhat more 

variation in net transfers than in the rate case. In particular there are two regions with shifts of 

more than 5% in the mass scenario: the Northwest and BASN, both in WECC. These two shifts 

are linked. The Northwest reserve transfers include the transfers in the rate scenario discussed 

above, plus additional transfers from the Northwest to BASN to compensate for the coal 

 

14 For more detail on differences between these scenarios, including the specific scenarios modeled, the modeling 

assumptions, and impacts, see the Regulatory Impact Analysis, Chapter 3. 
11 

retirements in BASN discussed above. The two cases with the largest percentage shift examined 

above are reduced in magnitude. These transfers in the mass scenario remain below the 

interregional transfer limits in the modeling and do not appear to present significant reliability 

related concerns. 

The same general patterns noted here for 2025 are also present in 2020 and 2025: only 

minor variations in total operating capacity, somewhat higher fossil steam retirements, more 

NGCC and CT capacity. These differences do not raise further issues of resource adequacy. 

Details can be found in the Appendices. 
12 

Appendix A: Tables by IPM Region for CPP Rate-Based Scenario in 2020 

(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year) 

A1. Projected Operational Capacity 

A2. . Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity 

A3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins

A4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case 

A5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case 

A6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region 
13 

A1. Projected Operational Capacity Year= 2020

All Generation Sources EE Capacity Overall Coal Only

Region Base Policy Contribution Change Base Policy

Basin (BASN) 14,448 14,340 84 -25 5,064 5,244

Desert Southwest (DSW) 42,114 40,826 296 -992 8,380 8,218

ERCOT 95,496 95,624 162 289 17,937 17,939

FRCC 56,419 55,755 88 -576 7,479 7,162

ISO-NE 32,558 31,167 262 -1,130 0 0

MAPP 9,545 9,114 7 -424 3,007 2,328

MISO 122,247 120,021 958 -1,269 45,045 42,237

Northern California (CALN) 30,690 28,804 220 -1,667 71 71

Northwest (NORW) 51,014 48,641 330 -2,043 2,406 2,354

NYISO 38,484 36,199 365 -1,921 0 68

PJM 183,187 181,901 1,288 1 50,144 49,739

Rockies (Rock) 23,250 22,140 135 -976 9,327 8,365

SERC-E 52,103 52,251 262 411 11,045 10,611

SERC-N 47,143 46,949 138 -56 13,722 12,298

SERC-SE 59,679 57,508 110 -2,061 14,035 11,864

SERC-W 39,074 38,286 52 -737 4,733 3,418

Southern California (CALS) 40,576 37,823 358 -2,395 57 57

SPP 77,768 76,421 153 -1,195 22,966 20,372

Grand Total 1,015,797 993,767 5,267 -16,763 215,416 202,344
14 

A2. Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity in 2020

Projected Reserve Margins

Assessment 

Region

Peak 

Demand 

Base

Peak 

Demand 

Policy

Reserve 

Capacity 

Base

Reserve 

Capacity 

Policy

Basin (BASN) 11,953 11,880 13,926 13,567

Desert Southwest (DSW) 29,612 29,352 34,074 33,314

ERCOT 73,948 73,806 84,116 83,955

FRCC 44,324 44,253 56,200 55,193

ISO-NE 26,475 26,248 30,446 30,185

MAPP 5,330 5,324 6,603 6,123

MISO 90,719 89,895 106,505 104,548

Northern California (CALN)21,282 21,090 25,399 24,193

Northwest (NORW) 25,414 25,175 39,507 34,859

NYISO 30,058 29,744 34,868 34,503

PJM 150,553 149,437 173,738 172,450

Rockies (Rock) 14,156 14,042 17,609 16,654

SERC-E 42,195 41,966 48,524 48,261

SERC-N 38,518 38,398 44,296 44,158

SERC-SE 48,110 48,014 55,327 55,217

SERC-W 29,095 29,052 37,890 34,798

Southern California (CALS)28,108 27,797 33,588 32,085

SPP 51,995 51,865 63,790 60,946

US T otal 761,845 757,338 906,407 885,008
15 

A3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins in 2020

Projected Reserve Margins

NERC Assessment 

Region

Target 

Reserve 

Margin Base Case Policy Case

Policy % 

Above Margin

Policy 

Change from 

Base

Basin (BASN) 12.60% 16.51% 14.21% 1.6% -2.3%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 13.50% 15.07% 13.50% 0.0% -1.6%

ERCOT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0.0%

FRCC 19.25% 26.79% 24.72% 5.5% -2.1%

ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPP 15.00% 23.87% 15.00% 0.0% -8.9%

MISO 16.30% 17.40% 16.30% 0.0% -1.1%

Northern California (CALN) 14.71% 19.35% 14.71% 0.0% -4.6%

Northwest (NORW) 17.90% 31.61% 25.25% 7.4% -6.4%

NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0.0%

PJM 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0.0%

Rockies (Rock) 14.65% 24.39% 18.60% 3.9% -5.8%

SERC-E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-W 15.00% 30.23% 19.78% 4.8% -10.5%

Southern California (CALS) 15.14% 19.50% 15.42% 0.3% -4.1%

SPP 13.60% 22.69% 17.51% 3.9% -5.2%

Grand Total 15.30% 18.98% 16.86% 1.6% -2.1%
16 

A4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to the Base Case (MW) Year= 2020

CC Coal CT NU OG Steam Total

Basin (BASN) 180 -179 0 0 108 109

Desert Southwest (DSW) 616 162 0 0 513 1,290

ERCOT 0 0 0 0 0 0

FRCC 59 317 0 0 288 664

ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1,725 1,725

MAPP 0 679 0 0 0 679

MISO 0 2,822 0 0 0 2,822

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 1,898 0 0 1,898

Northwest (NORW) 1,465 52 0 867 0 2,383

NYISO 81 -68 0 0 1,674 1,687

PJM 0 408 0 0 29 437

Rockies (Rock) 39 963 0 0 55 1,057

SERC-E 0 434 0 0 0 434

SERC-N 0 1,443 0 0 0 1,443

SERC-SE 0 2,171 0 0 0 2,171

SERC-W -434 1,328 0 0 -92 802

Southern California (CALS) 0 0 43 0 2,440 2,484

SPP -362 2,619 0 0 226 2,483

Grand Total 1,643 13,149 1,942 867 6,966 24,567
17 

A5. New Capacity Policy Case Incremental to Base Case(MW) Year= 2020

Region CC CT Wind Solar Other Total

Basin (BASN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Desert Southwest (DSW) 0 0 3 0 0 3

ERCOT -196 0 323 0 0 127

FRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0

ISO-NE 0 0 334 0 0 334

MAPP 0 0 247 0 0 247

MISO 320 0 -38 -6 305 581

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 12 0 0 12

Northwest (NORW) 0 0 10 0 0 10

NYISO 0 0 -386 0 -213 -599

PJM 767 -1,692 175 12 -115 -852

Rockies (Rock) 0 0 0 -54 0 -54

SERC-E 612 0 0 -29 0 583

SERC-N 1,203 0 3 0 23 1,229

SERC-SE 0 0 0 0 0 0

SERC-W 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southern California (CALS) 0 0 -270 0 0 -270

SPP 0 0 1,110 0 0 1,110

Grand Total 2,705 -1,692 1,523 -78 0 2,459
18 

A6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region(MW) in2020

NERC Assessment 

Region Base Policy

Change from 

Base to Policy

Change as 

Percent of Summer 

Peak

Basin (BASN) -1,772 -1,522 251 2.1%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 3,869 3,340 -529 -1.8%

ERCOT -1,942 -1,942 0 0.0%

FRCC 0 342 342 0.8%

ISO-NE -1,823 -3,212 -1,388 -5.2%

MISO -2,775 -3,249 -474 -0.5%

Northern California (CALN) 0 -692 -692 -3.3%

Northwest (NORW) 407 2,675 2,268 8.9%

NYISO 320 -1,303 -1,623 -5.4%

PJM -4,614 -4,702 -88 -0.1%

Rockies (Rock) 1,417 1,298 -118 -0.8%

SERC-E -981 -547 434 1.0%

SERC-N 1,502 1,435 -67 -0.2%

SERC-SE 3,800 1,739 -2,061 -4.3%

SERC-W 1,112 3,416 2,304 7.9%

Southern California (CALS) -3,761 -4,884 -1,124 -4.0%

SPP 2,191 2,872 682 1.3%
19 

Appendix B: Tables by IPM Region for CPP Rate-Based Scenario in 2025 

(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year) 

B1. Projected Operational Capacity 

B2 . Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity 

B3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins

B4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case 

B5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case 

B6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region 
20 

B1. Projected Operational Capacity Year= 2025

All Generation Sources EE Capacity Overall Coal Only

Region Base Policy Contribution Change Base Policy

Basin (BASN) 14,293 13,888 687 282 4,802 4,685

Desert Southwest (DSW) 42,265 40,855 2,300 890 8,380 8,096

ERCOT 99,864 96,751 3,345 232 17,937 17,647

FRCC 56,336 55,672 2,080 1,417 7,479 7,162

ISO-NE 32,685 31,294 1,644 252 0 0

MAPP 9,627 8,993 207 -428 3,007 2,190

MISO 125,625 118,165 6,127 -1,333 45,036 39,567

Northern California (CALN) 29,389 27,503 1,321 -565 71 71

Northwest (NORW) 51,181 48,711 2,036 -434 2,406 2,354

NYISO 38,484 36,082 2,173 -229 0 0

PJM 188,212 179,396 9,367 551 50,144 44,546

Rockies (Rock) 23,663 22,284 1,041 -339 9,216 8,363

SERC-E 55,904 52,022 2,556 -1,326 11,045 9,478

SERC-N 50,217 46,755 2,051 -1,411 13,141 11,557

SERC-SE 57,354 56,571 2,192 1,409 11,655 10,871

SERC-W 40,012 37,823 1,069 -1,121 4,733 3,418

Southern California (CALS) 43,405 39,826 2,159 -1,420 57 50

SPP 78,704 75,121 2,733 -850 22,966 19,113

Grand Total 1,037,223 987,713 45,085 -4,425 212,075 189,169
21 

B2. Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity in 2025

Projected Reserve Margins

Assessment 

Region

Peak 

Demand 

Base

Peak 

Demand 

Policy

Reserve 

Capacity 

Base

Reserve 

Capacity 

Policy

Basin (BASN) 12,466 11,856 14,036 13,349

Desert Southwest (DSW) 31,887 29,861 36,192 33,892

ERCOT 77,606 74,665 88,276 84,932

FRCC 46,355 44,611 55,279 53,199

ISO-NE 26,701 25,272 30,706 29,063

MAPP 5,539 5,360 6,370 6,164

MISO 93,625 88,356 108,885 102,758

Northern California (CALN)22,305 21,155 25,592 24,301

Northwest (NORW) 26,489 24,955 36,672 33,098

NYISO 30,051 28,179 34,860 32,687

PJM 154,841 146,724 178,686 169,319

Rockies (Rock) 15,223 14,315 17,676 16,412

SERC-E 44,263 42,040 50,902 48,346

SERC-N 40,450 38,666 46,517 44,466

SERC-SE 50,430 48,524 57,994 55,802

SERC-W 30,589 29,660 35,644 34,109

Southern California (CALS)29,473 27,605 34,006 31,922

SPP 54,332 51,926 62,673 58,988

US T otal 792,624 753,693 920,969 872,809
22 

B3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins in 2025

Projected Reserve Margins

NERC Assessment 

Region

Target 

Reserve 

Margin Base Case Policy Case

Policy % 

Above Margin

Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0%

ERCOT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0%

FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0%

ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0%

MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0%

MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0%

Northern California (CALN) 14.71% 14.74% 14.87% 0.2%

Northwest (NORW) 17.90% 27.05% 25.71% 7.8%

NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0%

PJM 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0%

Rockies (Rock) 14.65% 16.12% 14.65% 0.0%

SERC-E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0%

SERC-N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0%

SERC-SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0%

SERC-W 15.00% 16.52% 15.00% 0.0%

Southern California (CALS) 15.14% 15.38% 15.64% 0.5%

SPP 13.60% 15.35% 13.60% 0.0%

Grand Total 15.29% 16.19% 15.80% 0.5%
23 

B4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to the Base Case (MW) Year= 2025

CC Coal CT NU OG Steam Total

Basin (BASN) 180 118 0 0 108 405

Desert Southwest (DSW) 616 284 0 0 513 1,412

ERCOT 0 291 0 0 0 291

FRCC 59 317 0 0 288 664

ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1,725 1,725

MAPP 0 817 0 0 0 817

MISO 0 5,484 0 0 0 5,484

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 1,898 0 0 1,898

Northwest (NORW) 1,465 52 0 867 0 2,383

NYISO 81 0 0 261 1,674 2,016

PJM 0 5,601 0 0 19 5,620

Rockies (Rock) 39 855 0 0 55 949

SERC-E 0 1,566 0 0 0 1,566

SERC-N 0 1,603 0 0 0 1,603

SERC-SE 0 783 0 0 0 783

SERC-W -434 1,328 0 0 1,309 2,203

Southern California (CALS) 0 7 43 0 2,514 2,565

SPP -362 3,878 0 0 1,060 4,576

Grand Total 1,643 22,984 1,942 1,128 9,264 36,961
24 

B5. New Capacity Policy Case Incremental to Base Case(MW) Year= 2025

Region CC CT Wind Solar Other Total

Basin (BASN) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Desert Southwest (DSW) 0 0 3 0 0 3

ERCOT -2,003 -1,142 323 0 0 -2,823

FRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0

ISO-NE 0 0 334 0 0 334

MAPP 0 0 182 0 0 182

MISO -1,534 0 -404 -53 0 -1,991

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 12 0 0 12

Northwest (NORW) 0 0 10 0 -96 -86

NYISO 0 0 -386 0 0 -386

PJM -382 -1,988 -696 -133 0 -3,199

Rockies (Rock) 0 0 0 -432 0 -432

SERC-E -2,008 0 0 -308 0 -2,316

SERC-N -1,881 0 3 0 0 -1,878

SERC-SE 0 0 0 0 0 0

SERC-W 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southern California (CALS) 0 0 -270 -706 -39 -1,015

SPP 0 0 965 4 0 969

Grand Total -7,808 -3,131 75 -1,628 -135 -12,626
25 

B6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region(MW) in 2025

NERC Assessment 

Region Base Policy

Change from 

Base to Policy

Change as 

Percent of Summer 

Peak

Basin (BASN) -2,052 -1,769 283 2.3%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 1,846 2,734 888 2.8%

ERCOT -1,931 -1,942 -11 0.0%

FRCC 838 2,254 1,417 3.1%

ISO-NE -2,009 -1,999 10 0.0%

MISO -2,502 -4,017 -1,515 -1.5%

Northern California (CALN) -1,490 -2,095 -606 -2.7%

Northwest (NORW) 3,345 4,480 1,134 4.3%

NYISO 249 296 47 0.2%

PJM -6,877 -5,637 1,240 0.8%

Rockies (Rock) 1,419 1,619 201 1.3%

SERC-E -402 -1,492 -1,091 -2.5%

SERC-N 2,141 728 -1,413 -3.5%

SERC-SE -1,213 196 1,409 2.8%

SERC-W 3,806 3,149 -657 -2.1%

Southern California (CALS) -3,309 -4,091 -782 -2.7%

SPP 3,631 3,059 -572 -1.1%
26 

Appendix C: Tables by IPM Region for CPP Rate-Based Scenario in 2030 

(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year) 

C1. Projected Operational Capacity 

C2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity 

C3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins

C4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case 

C5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case 

C6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region 
27 

C1. Projected Operational Capacity Year= 2030

All Generation Sources EE Capacity Overall Coal Only

Region Base Policy Contribution Change Base Policy

Basin (BASN) 14,346 13,942 1,135 731 4,802 4,685

Desert Southwest (DSW) 42,265 40,855 3,911 2,501 8,380 8,096

ERCOT 107,231 111,864 6,856 11,490 17,937 17,339

FRCC 61,471 55,847 4,357 -1,267 7,414 6,325

ISO-NE 32,688 31,294 2,518 1,124 0 0

MAPP 9,627 9,322 464 159 3,007 2,190

MISO 126,164 119,045 9,389 2,269 45,036 39,567

Northern California (CALN) 29,389 27,503 1,976 90 71 71

Northwest (NORW) 51,415 49,030 3,171 786 2,406 2,354

NYISO 39,032 35,323 3,220 -489 0 0

PJM 203,408 185,630 15,258 -2,519 50,129 43,483

Rockies (Rock) 24,105 22,666 1,777 337 9,216 8,363

SERC-E 59,039 53,920 4,304 -814 11,045 7,952

SERC-N 52,505 48,091 3,916 -498 13,141 11,084

SERC-SE 60,658 60,265 4,470 4,076 11,655 10,692

SERC-W 40,602 40,391 2,247 2,037 4,733 3,418

Southern California (CALS) 49,260 44,898 3,238 -1,124 57 50

SPP 79,238 74,663 5,534 958 22,506 18,653

Grand Total 1,082,444 1,024,551 77,741 19,847 211,536 184,322
28 

C2. Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity in 2030

Projected Reserve Margins

Assessment 

Region

Peak 

Demand 

Base

Peak 

Demand 

Policy

Reserve 

Capacity 

Base

Reserve 

Capacity 

Policy

Basin (BASN) 12,961 11,953 14,594 13,459

Desert Southwest (DSW) 34,589 31,144 39,259 35,348

ERCOT 82,455 76,428 93,793 86,936

FRCC 49,145 45,491 58,606 54,248

ISO-NE 27,433 25,243 31,547 29,029

MAPP 5,732 5,329 6,592 6,128

MISO 96,428 88,354 112,145 102,756

Northern California (CALN)23,372 21,650 26,810 24,834

Northwest (NORW) 27,515 25,023 33,947 31,852

NYISO 30,694 27,918 35,605 32,385

PJM 160,273 147,051 184,955 169,696

Rockies (Rock) 16,419 14,869 18,824 17,047

SERC-E 46,801 43,058 53,821 49,517

SERC-N 42,204 38,799 48,534 44,619

SERC-SE 52,944 49,057 60,886 56,416

SERC-W 32,436 30,482 37,301 35,054

Southern California (CALS)30,929 28,127 35,684 32,494

SPP 57,092 52,221 64,857 59,323

US T otal 829,421 762,176 957,760 881,143
29 

C3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins in 2030

Projected Reserve Margins

NERC Assessment 

Region

Target 

Reserve 

Margin Base Case Policy Case

Policy % 

Above Margin

Policy 

Change from 

Base

Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0% 0.0%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0% 0.0%

ERCOT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0.0%

FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0% 0.0%

ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0% 0.0%

Northern California (CALN) 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 0.0% 0.0%

Northwest (NORW) 17.90% 23.38% 25.07% 7.2% 1.7%

NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0.0%

PJM 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0.0%

Rockies (Rock) 14.65% 14.65% 14.65% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-W 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

Southern California (CALS) 15.14% 15.37% 15.53% 0.4% 0.2%

SPP 13.60% 13.60% 13.60% 0.0% 0.0%

Grand Total 15.28% 15.47% 15.61% 0.3% 0.1%
30 

C4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to the Base Case (MW) Year= 2030

CC Coal CT NU OG Steam Total

Basin (BASN) 180 118 0 0 108 405

Desert Southwest (DSW) 616 284 0 0 513 1,412

ERCOT 0 600 0 0 0 600

FRCC 59 1,089 0 0 288 1,436

ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1,725 1,725

MAPP 0 817 0 0 0 817

MISO 0 5,484 0 0 0 5,484

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 1,898 0 0 1,898

Northwest (NORW) 1,465 52 0 867 0 2,383

NYISO 81 0 0 1 1,674 1,756

PJM 0 6,652 0 -1 19 6,669

Rockies (Rock) 39 855 0 0 55 949

SERC-E 0 3,093 0 0 0 3,093

SERC-N 0 2,076 0 0 0 2,076

SERC-SE 0 962 0 0 0 962

SERC-W -434 1,328 0 0 1,309 2,203

Southern California (CALS) 0 7 43 0 2,514 2,565

SPP -362 3,878 0 0 1,060 4,576

Grand Total 1,643 27,294 1,942 867 9,264 41,009
31 

C5. New Capacity Policy Case Incremental to Base Case(MW) Year= 2030

Region CC CT Wind Solar Other Total

Basin (BASN) 0 0 1 0 0 1

Desert Southwest (DSW) 0 0 3 0 0 3

ERCOT -6,330 -4,182 323 15,421 0 5,232

FRCC -4,189 0 0 0 0 -4,189

ISO-NE 0 0 331 0 0 331

MAPP 0 0 497 0 15 511

MISO -1,234 0 -330 -86 0 -1,650

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 12 0 0 12

Northwest (NORW) 0 0 -2 0 0 -2

NYISO -1,567 0 -386 0 0 -1,953

PJM -6,179 -2,899 -864 -1,172 0 -11,114

Rockies (Rock) 0 0 0 -529 37 -492

SERC-E -1,838 0 0 -188 0 -2,026

SERC-N -2,360 0 3 0 0 -2,357

SERC-SE -3,304 0 0 3,873 0 569

SERC-W -589 0 0 2,569 0 1,979

Southern California (CALS) -1,603 0 -270 79 -3 -1,797

SPP -887 0 859 4 0 -24

Grand Total -30,080 -7,081 177 19,970 50 -16,964
32 

C6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region(MW) in 2030

NERC Assessment 

Region Base Policy

Change from 

Base to Policy

Change as 

Percent of Summer 

Peak

Basin (BASN) -2,563 -1,826 738 5.7%

Desert Southwest (DSW) -1,245 1,269 2,514 7.3%

ERCOT -40 -389 -349 -0.4%

FRCC 2,646 1,379 -1,267 -2.6%

ISO-NE -2,848 -1,949 900 3.3%

MISO -5,473 -3,076 2,397 2.3%

Northern California (CALN) -2,709 -2,630 80 0.3%

Northwest (NORW) 6,225 5,945 -279 -1.0%

NYISO 26 -63 -90 -0.3%

PJM -5,123 -6,100 -977 -0.6%

Rockies (Rock) 399 1,097 698 4.3%

SERC-E -506 -1,177 -670 -1.4%

SERC-N 2,412 1,912 -500 -1.2%

SERC-SE -800 326 1,126 2.1%

SERC-W 2,732 2,844 112 0.3%

Southern California (CALS) -2,124 -3,120 -997 -3.2%

SPP 1,933 2,271 337 0.6%
33 

Appendix D: Tables by IPM Region for CPP Mass-Based Scenario in 2020 

(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year) 

D1. Projected Operational Capacity 

D2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity 

D3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins

D4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case 

D5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case 

D6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region 
34 

D1. Projected Operational Capacity Year= 2020

All Generation Sources EE Capacity Overall Coal Only

Region Base Policy Contribution Change Base Policy

Basin (BASN) 14,448 14,475 84 111 5,064 5,244

Desert Southwest (DSW) 42,114 40,168 296 -1,650 8,380 7,501

ERCOT 95,496 95,339 162 4 17,937 17,550

FRCC 56,419 55,636 88 -695 7,479 7,131

ISO-NE 32,558 30,383 262 -1,914 0 0

MAPP 9,545 9,022 7 -516 3,007 2,545

MISO 122,247 118,757 958 -2,533 45,045 39,926

Northern California (CALN) 30,690 28,522 220 -1,948 71 71

Northwest (NORW) 51,014 49,408 330 -1,276 2,406 2,354

NYISO 38,484 36,626 365 -1,494 0 0

PJM 183,187 181,488 1,288 -411 50,144 49,784

Rockies (Rock) 23,250 22,246 135 -869 9,327 8,407

SERC-E 52,103 52,109 262 269 11,045 11,176

SERC-N 47,143 47,672 138 667 13,722 12,696

SERC-SE 59,679 57,662 110 -1,907 14,035 12,018

SERC-W 39,074 38,826 52 -196 4,733 3,918

Southern California (CALS) 40,576 38,137 358 -2,082 57 57

SPP 77,768 75,481 153 -2,135 22,966 20,139

Grand Total 1,015,797 991,956 5,267 -18,575 215,416 200,515
35 

D2. Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity in 2020

Projected Reserve Margins

Assessment 

Region

Peak 

Demand 

Base

Peak 

Demand 

Policy

Reserve 

Capacity 

Base

Reserve 

Capacity 

Policy

Basin (BASN) 11,953 11,878 13,926 13,375

Desert Southwest (DSW) 29,612 29,352 34,074 33,314

ERCOT 73,948 73,806 84,116 83,955

FRCC 44,324 44,253 56,200 55,045

ISO-NE 26,475 26,248 30,446 30,185

MAPP 5,330 5,324 6,603 6,123

MISO 90,719 89,895 106,505 104,548

Northern California (CALN)21,282 21,090 25,399 24,193

Northwest (NORW) 25,414 25,181 39,507 35,702

NYISO 30,058 29,744 34,868 34,503

PJM 150,553 149,437 173,738 172,450

Rockies (Rock) 14,156 14,045 17,609 16,994

SERC-E 42,195 41,966 48,524 48,261

SERC-N 38,518 38,398 44,296 44,158

SERC-SE 48,110 48,014 55,327 55,217

SERC-W 29,095 29,053 37,890 35,696

Southern California (CALS)28,108 27,797 33,588 32,053

SPP 51,995 51,864 63,790 60,300

US T otal 761,845 757,343 906,407 886,072
36 

D3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins in 2020

Projected Reserve Margins

NERC Assessment 

Region

Target 

Reserve 

Margin Base Case Policy Case

Policy % 

Above Margin

Policy 

Change from 

Base

Basin (BASN) 12.60% 16.51% 12.60% 0.0% -3.9%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 13.50% 15.07% 13.50% 0.0% -1.6%

ERCOT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0.0%

FRCC 19.25% 26.79% 24.39% 5.1% -2.4%

ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPP 15.00% 23.87% 15.00% 0.0% -8.9%

MISO 16.30% 17.40% 16.30% 0.0% -1.1%

Northern California (CALN) 14.71% 19.35% 14.71% 0.0% -4.6%

Northwest (NORW) 17.90% 31.61% 28.79% 10.9% -2.8%

NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0.0%

PJM 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0.0%

Rockies (Rock) 14.65% 24.39% 21.00% 6.4% -3.4%

SERC-E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-W 15.00% 30.23% 22.87% 7.9% -7.4%

Southern California (CALS) 15.14% 19.50% 15.31% 0.2% -4.2%

SPP 13.60% 22.69% 16.27% 2.7% -6.4%

Grand Total 15.30% 18.98% 17.00% 1.7% -2.0%
37 

D4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to the Base Case (MW) Year= 2020

CC Coal CT NU OG Steam Total

Basin (BASN) 43 -179 0 0 108 -28

Desert Southwest (DSW) 553 881 0 0 513 1,948

ERCOT 0 391 0 0 0 391

FRCC 148 348 0 0 288 784

ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1,910 1,910

MAPP 0 462 0 0 0 462

MISO 0 5,146 0 -1,112 0 4,034

Northern California (CALN) 141 0 1,898 0 0 2,039

Northwest (NORW) 675 52 0 860 0 1,588

NYISO 81 0 0 0 1,330 1,411

PJM 0 363 0 0 377 740

Rockies (Rock) 0 921 0 0 0 921

SERC-E 0 -132 0 0 0 -132

SERC-N 0 1,042 0 0 0 1,042

SERC-SE 0 2,017 0 0 0 2,017

SERC-W -434 823 0 0 -92 297

Southern California (CALS) 2 0 75 0 2,942 3,019

SPP -206 2,845 0 -554 98 2,184

Grand Total 1,004 14,981 1,974 -806 7,474 24,627
38 

D5. New Capacity Policy Case Incremental to Base Case(MW) Year= 2020

Region CC CT Wind Solar Other Total

Basin (BASN) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1

Desert Southwest (DSW) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1

ERCOT 233 0 -3 0 0 230

FRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0

ISO-NE 0 0 -265 0 0 -265

MAPP 0 0 -62 0 0 -62

MISO 905 0 -688 -6 305 516

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 -19 0 -110 -128

Northwest (NORW) 0 0 -19 0 0 -19

NYISO 0 0 -448 0 0 -448

PJM 1,380 -1,797 -292 -16 -237 -962

Rockies (Rock) 0 0 0 -84 0 -84

SERC-E 0 0 0 -125 0 -125

SERC-N 1,554 0 0 0 0 1,554

SERC-SE 0 0 0 0 0 0

SERC-W 0 0 0 0 41 41

Southern California (CALS) 834 0 -255 0 0 580

SPP 0 0 -121 0 0 -121

Grand Total 4,906 -1,797 -2,172 -231 0 706
39 

D6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region(MW) in2020

NERC Assessment 

Region Base Policy

Change from 

Base to Policy

Change as 

Percent of Summer 

Peak

Basin (BASN) -1,772 -1,194 579 4.8%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 3,869 2,684 -1,185 -4.0%

ERCOT -1,942 -1,942 0 0.0%

FRCC 0 371 371 0.8%

ISO-NE -1,823 -3,534 -1,710 -6.5%

MISO -2,775 -3,958 -1,183 -1.2%

Northern California (CALN) 0 -909 -909 -4.3%

Northwest (NORW) 407 2,617 2,210 8.7%

NYISO 320 -906 -1,226 -4.1%

PJM -4,614 -4,697 -84 -0.1%

Rockies (Rock) 1,417 1,091 -325 -2.3%

SERC-E -981 -616 365 0.9%

SERC-N 1,502 2,169 667 1.7%

SERC-SE 3,800 1,893 -1,907 -4.0%

SERC-W 1,112 3,043 1,931 6.6%

Southern California (CALS) -3,761 -4,543 -782 -2.8%

SPP 2,191 3,440 1,250 2.4%
40 

Appendix E: Tables by IPM Region for CPP Mass-Based Scenario in 2020 

(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year) 

E1. Projected Operational Capacity 

E2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity 

E3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins

E4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case 

E5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case 

E6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region 
41 

E1. Projected Operational Capacity Year= 2025

All Generation Sources EE Capacity Overall Coal Only

Region Base Policy Contribution Change Base Policy

Basin (BASN) 14,293 12,687 687 -919 4,802 3,345

Desert Southwest (DSW) 42,265 40,374 2,300 409 8,380 7,501

ERCOT 99,864 96,691 3,345 171 17,937 16,950

FRCC 56,336 55,647 2,080 1,391 7,479 7,131

ISO-NE 32,685 30,497 1,644 -545 0 0

MAPP 9,627 9,028 207 -393 3,007 2,407

MISO 125,625 118,290 6,127 -1,209 45,036 37,169

Northern California (CALN) 29,389 27,278 1,321 -791 71 17

Northwest (NORW) 51,181 48,752 2,036 -393 2,406 1,513

NYISO 38,484 36,517 2,173 205 0 0

PJM 188,212 178,002 9,367 -843 50,144 43,013

Rockies (Rock) 23,663 21,906 1,041 -717 9,216 7,797

SERC-E 55,904 52,622 2,556 -727 11,045 10,907

SERC-N 50,217 48,098 2,051 -68 13,141 11,405

SERC-SE 57,354 56,885 2,192 1,722 11,655 11,185

SERC-W 40,012 38,007 1,069 -936 4,733 3,918

Southern California (CALS) 43,405 39,745 2,159 -1,501 57 57

SPP 78,704 74,286 2,733 -1,685 22,966 18,522

Grand Total 1,037,223 985,310 45,085 -6,828 212,075 182,836
42 

E2. Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity in 2025

Projected Reserve Margins

Assessment 

Region

Peak 

Demand 

Base

Peak 

Demand 

Policy

Reserve 

Capacity 

Base

Reserve 

Capacity 

Policy

Basin (BASN) 12,466 11,856 14,036 13,349

Desert Southwest (DSW) 31,887 29,861 36,192 33,892

ERCOT 77,606 74,665 88,276 84,932

FRCC 46,355 44,611 55,279 53,199

ISO-NE 26,701 25,272 30,706 29,063

MAPP 5,539 5,360 6,370 6,164

MISO 93,625 88,356 108,885 102,758

Northern California (CALN)22,305 21,155 25,592 24,301

Northwest (NORW) 26,489 24,909 36,672 32,084

NYISO 30,051 28,179 34,860 32,687

PJM 154,841 146,724 178,686 169,319

Rockies (Rock) 15,223 14,315 17,676 16,412

SERC-E 44,263 42,040 50,902 48,346

SERC-N 40,450 38,666 46,517 44,466

SERC-SE 50,430 48,524 57,994 55,802

SERC-W 30,589 29,660 35,644 34,109

Southern California (CALS)29,473 27,604 34,006 31,897

SPP 54,332 51,927 62,673 58,997

US T otal 792,624 753,649 920,969 871,777
43 

E3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins in 2025

Projected Reserve Margins

NERC Assessment 

Region

Target 

Reserve 

Margin Base Case Policy Case

Policy % 

Above Margin

Policy 

Change from 

Base

Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0% 0.0%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0% 0.0%

ERCOT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0.0%

FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0% 0.0%

ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0% 0.0%

Northern California (CALN) 14.71% 14.74% 14.87% 0.2% 0.1%

Northwest (NORW) 17.90% 27.05% 25.96% 8.1% -1.1%

NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0.0%

PJM 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0.0%

Rockies (Rock) 14.65% 16.12% 14.65% 0.0% -1.5%

SERC-E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-W 15.00% 16.52% 15.00% 0.0% -1.5%

Southern California (CALS) 15.14% 15.38% 15.55% 0.4% 0.2%

SPP 13.60% 15.35% 13.62% 0.0% -1.7%

Grand Total 15.29% 16.19% 15.67% 0.4% -0.5%
44 

E4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to the Base Case (MW) Year= 2025

CC Coal CT NU OG Steam Total

Basin (BASN) 43 1,458 0 0 108 1,609

Desert Southwest (DSW) 553 881 0 0 513 1,948

ERCOT 0 991 0 0 0 991

FRCC 148 348 0 0 288 784

ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1,910 1,910

MAPP 0 600 0 0 0 600

MISO 0 7,895 0 -1,112 0 6,783

Northern California (CALN) 141 54 1,898 0 0 2,093

Northwest (NORW) 675 893 0 860 0 2,429

NYISO 81 0 0 109 1,330 1,520

PJM 0 7,134 0 0 367 7,501

Rockies (Rock) 0 1,421 0 0 0 1,421

SERC-E 0 137 0 0 0 137

SERC-N 0 1,753 0 0 0 1,753

SERC-SE 0 470 0 0 0 470

SERC-W -434 823 0 0 1,957 2,346

Southern California (CALS) 2 0 75 0 3,016 3,093

SPP -206 4,462 0 -554 932 4,635

Grand Total 1,004 29,319 1,974 -697 10,421 42,021
45 

E5. New Capacity Policy Case Incremental to Base Case(MW) Year= 2025

Region CC CT Wind Solar Other Total

Basin (BASN) 0 0 3 0 0 3

Desert Southwest (DSW) 0 0 55 0 0 55

ERCOT -52 -2,134 0 0 0 -2,185

FRCC 94 0 0 0 0 94

ISO-NE 0 0 -265 0 -13 -278

MAPP 0 0 0 0 0 0

MISO -948 0 416 -48 0 -581

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 -19 0 0 -19

Northwest (NORW) 0 0 73 0 -73 0

NYISO 0 0 -448 0 0 -448

PJM 1,447 -2,094 -1,933 -133 0 -2,713

Rockies (Rock) 0 0 0 -375 37 -338

SERC-E -2,620 0 0 -525 0 -3,145

SERC-N -383 0 0 0 0 -383

SERC-SE 0 0 0 0 0 0

SERC-W 333 0 0 0 0 333

Southern California (CALS) 834 0 -255 -1,114 -32 -567

SPP 0 0 -66 -1 267 200

Grand Total -1,295 -4,228 -2,439 -2,197 187 -9,971
46 

E6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region(MW) in 2025

NERC Assessment 

Region Base Policy

Change from 

Base to Policy

Change as 

Percent of Summer 

Peak

Basin (BASN) -2,052 -2,971 -919 -7.4%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 1,846 2,219 372 1.2%

ERCOT -1,931 -1,760 172 0.2%

FRCC 838 2,229 1,391 3.0%

ISO-NE -2,009 -2,345 -337 -1.3%

MISO -2,502 -4,422 -1,920 -1.9%

Northern California (CALN) -1,490 -2,298 -808 -3.6%

Northwest (NORW) 3,345 5,486 2,141 8.1%

NYISO 249 834 585 1.9%

PJM -6,877 -6,098 779 0.5%

Rockies (Rock) 1,419 1,175 -243 -1.6%

SERC-E -402 -727 -325 -0.7%

SERC-N 2,141 2,074 -68 -0.2%

SERC-SE -1,213 509 1,722 3.4%

SERC-W 3,806 3,330 -476 -1.6%

Southern California (CALS) -3,309 -3,860 -552 -1.9%

SPP 3,631 2,846 -785 -1.4%
47 

Appendix F: Tables by IPM Region for CPP Mass-Based Scenario in 2020 

(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year) 

F1. Projected Operational Capacity 

F2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity 

F3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins

F4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case 

F5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case 

F6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region 
48 

F1. Projected Operational Capacity Year= 2030

All Generation Sources EE Capacity Overall Coal Only

Region Base Policy Contribution Change Base Policy

Basin (BASN) 14,346 13,573 1,135 361 4,802 3,172

Desert Southwest (DSW) 42,265 40,844 3,911 2,490 8,380 7,115

ERCOT 107,231 113,686 6,856 13,312 17,937 16,619

FRCC 61,471 57,489 4,357 375 7,414 6,324

ISO-NE 32,688 30,510 2,518 340 0 0

MAPP 9,627 9,288 464 125 3,007 2,171

MISO 126,164 117,707 9,389 931 45,036 35,626

Northern California (CALN) 29,389 27,278 1,976 -136 71 17

Northwest (NORW) 51,415 48,834 3,171 589 2,406 1,332

NYISO 39,032 35,605 3,220 -207 0 0

PJM 203,408 185,441 15,258 -2,709 50,129 39,667

Rockies (Rock) 24,105 24,184 1,777 1,855 9,216 7,657

SERC-E 59,039 53,149 4,304 -1,585 11,045 10,405

SERC-N 52,505 49,374 3,916 785 13,141 10,953

SERC-SE 60,658 56,487 4,470 298 11,655 10,221

SERC-W 40,602 38,739 2,247 385 4,733 3,918

Southern California (CALS) 49,260 46,137 3,238 114 57 57

SPP 79,238 75,215 5,534 1,510 22,506 18,036

Grand Total 1,082,444 1,023,537 77,741 18,833 211,536 173,291
49 

F2. Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity in 2030

Projected Reserve Margins

Assessment 

Region

Peak 

Demand 

Base

Peak 

Demand 

Policy

Reserve 

Capacity 

Base

Reserve 

Capacity 

Policy

Basin (BASN) 12,961 11,953 14,594 13,459

Desert Southwest (DSW) 34,589 31,144 39,259 35,348

ERCOT 82,455 76,428 93,793 86,936

FRCC 49,145 45,491 58,606 54,248

ISO-NE 27,433 25,243 31,547 29,029

MAPP 5,732 5,329 6,592 6,128

MISO 96,428 88,354 112,145 102,756

Northern California (CALN)23,372 21,652 26,810 24,867

Northwest (NORW) 27,515 25,057 33,947 32,335

NYISO 30,694 27,918 35,605 32,385

PJM 160,273 147,051 184,955 169,696

Rockies (Rock) 16,419 14,869 18,824 17,047

SERC-E 46,801 43,058 53,821 49,517

SERC-N 42,204 38,799 48,534 44,619

SERC-SE 52,944 49,057 60,886 56,416

SERC-W 32,436 30,482 37,301 35,054

Southern California (CALS)30,929 28,127 35,684 32,494

SPP 57,092 52,245 64,857 59,639

US T otal 829,421 762,235 957,760 881,975
50 

F3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins in 2030

Projected Reserve Margins

NERC Assessment 

Region

Target 

Reserve 

Margin Base Case Policy Case

Policy % 

Above Margin

Policy 

Change from 

Base

Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0% 0.0%

Desert Southwest (DSW) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0% 0.0%

ERCOT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0.0%

FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0% 0.0%

ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0% 0.0%

Northern California (CALN) 14.71% 14.71% 14.85% 0.1% 0.1%

Northwest (NORW) 17.90% 23.38% 25.23% 7.3% 1.9%

NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0.0%

PJM 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0.0%

Rockies (Rock) 14.65% 14.65% 14.65% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

SERC-W 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0.0%

Southern California (CALS) 15.14% 15.37% 15.53% 0.4% 0.2%

SPP 13.60% 13.60% 14.15% 0.6% 0.6%

Grand Total 15.28% 15.47% 15.71% 0.4% 0.2%
51 

F4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to the Base Case (MW) Year= 2030

CC Coal CT NU OG Steam Total

Basin (BASN) 43 1,630 0 0 108 1,782

Desert Southwest (DSW) 553 1,267 0 0 513 2,334

ERCOT 0 1,321 0 0 0 1,321

FRCC 148 1,089 0 0 288 1,525

ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1,910 1,910

MAPP 0 836 0 0 0 836

MISO 0 9,437 0 -521 0 8,916

Northern California (CALN) 141 54 1,898 0 0 2,093

Northwest (NORW) 675 1,074 0 860 0 2,610

NYISO 81 0 0 1 1,330 1,412

PJM 0 10,469 0 -1 367 10,835

Rockies (Rock) 0 1,561 0 0 0 1,561

SERC-E 0 639 0 0 0 639

SERC-N 0 2,205 0 0 0 2,205

SERC-SE 0 1,433 0 0 0 1,433

SERC-W -434 823 0 0 1,957 2,346

Southern California (CALS) 2 0 75 0 3,016 3,093

SPP -206 4,488 0 -554 932 4,660

Grand Total 1,004 38,328 1,974 -215 10,421 51,512
52 

F5. New Capacity Policy Case Incremental to Base Case(MW) Year= 2030

Region CC CT Wind Solar Other Total

Basin (BASN) 479 0 6 523 0 1,008

Desert Southwest (DSW) 0 0 57 853 0 911

ERCOT -4,378 -5,173 0 17,325 0 7,773

FRCC -2,458 0 0 0 0 -2,458

ISO-NE 0 0 -268 0 0 -268

MAPP 0 0 497 0 0 497

MISO -543 0 1,054 -80 0 431

Northern California (CALN) 0 0 -19 0 0 -19

Northwest (NORW) 0 0 28 0 0 28

NYISO -1,567 0 -448 0 0 -2,015

PJM -325 -3,004 -2,207 -1,602 0 -7,139

Rockies (Rock) 0 0 0 1,601 37 1,638

SERC-E -4,418 0 0 -833 0 -5,250

SERC-N -943 0 0 0 0 -943

SERC-SE -2,739 0 0 0 0 -2,739

SERC-W 476 0 0 0 0 476

Southern California (CALS) 117 0 -255 79 29 -30

SPP -505 0 859 -2 267 619

Grand Total -16,804 -8,177 -696 17,864 334 -7,479
53 

F6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region(MW) in 2030

NERC Assessment 

Region Base Policy

Change from 

Base to Policy

Change as 

Percent of Summer 

Peak

Basin (BASN) -2,563 -2,563 1 0.0%

Desert Southwest (DSW) -1,245 631 1,877 5.4%

ERCOT -40 260 301 0.4%

FRCC 2,646 3,021 375 0.8%

ISO-NE -2,848 -2,282 567 2.1%

MISO -5,473 -5,470 2 0.0%

Northern California (CALN) -2,709 -2,864 -154 -0.7%

Northwest (NORW) 6,225 5,246 -979 -3.6%

NYISO 26 301 275 0.9%

PJM -5,123 -4,891 232 0.1%

Rockies (Rock) 399 1,114 715 4.4%

SERC-E -506 -1,455 -948 -2.0%

SERC-N 2,412 3,197 785 1.9%

SERC-SE -800 -503 298 0.6%

SERC-W 2,732 3,122 390 1.2%

Southern California (CALS) -2,124 -1,859 264 0.9%

SPP 1,933 2,389 456 0.8%
54 

Appendix C: Maps 

C1. IPM Regions 

C2. . NERC Assessment Regions 
55 

C1: IPM v5.13 Regions
56 

C2: NERC Assessment Areas in Long Term Reliability Assessm

Source: NERC 2012 Long Term Reliability Assessment
57