Alternate Tables Based on Remedy Sensitivity with Revised Variability Limits

These tables show the impacts of the final remedy including the revisions to the variability limits

from interagency review. The “track changes” feature illustrates where these results differ from

the results already presented in the main body of the RIA based on the full breadth of prior EPA

analyses conducted on the final rule’s remedy. If you do not see any redline changes, that means

that the results are unaffected by the inclusion of the revised variability limits and the limited

technical correction s to SO2 budgets in Kentucky, Michigan, and New York.

Table A

- 1. Annual Emissions of SO 2 and NO

x in 2010 and Percentage of Emissions in the

Transport Rule Affected Region (tons)

SO 2 NO X

Transport Rule

Annual NO X and SO 2 States 4,251,996 1,424,228

Nationwide

(Contiguous 48 States) 5,165,954 2,136,612

Emissions of Transport Rule

States as Percentage of

Nationwide Emissions 82% 67%

Source: EPA emissions data from all reporting units.

Note: Transport Rule annual NO X and SO 2 states include Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio,

Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wiscons in.

Table A

- 2. Transport Rule Annual NO

x and SO 2 and NOx Ozone Season State Emission

Budgets (tons)

SO 2

Annual NO X

Annual NO X

Ozone Season

2012 and

2013 2014 and

Later 2012

and

2013 2014

and

Later 2012 and

2013 2014 and

Later

Alabama 216,033 213,258 72,691 71,962 31,746 31,499

Arkansas

--- --- --- --- 15,037 15,037

Florida

--- --- --- --- 27,825 27,825Georgia 158,527 95,231 62,010 40,540 27,944 18,279

Illinois 234,889 124,123 47,872 47,872 21,208 21,208

Indiana 285,424 161,111 109,726 108,424 46,876 46,175

Iowa 107,085 75,184 38,335 37,498 16,532* 16,207*

Kansas 41,528 41,528 30,714 25,560 13,536* 10,998*

Kentucky 232,662 106,284 85,086 77,238 36,167 32,674

Louisiana

--- --- --- --- 13,432 13,432

Maryland 30,120 28,203 16,633 16,574 7,179 7,179

Michigan 229,303 143,995 60,193 57,812 25,752* 24,727*

Minnesota 41,981 41,981 29,572 29,572

--- ---

Mississippi

--- --- --- --- 10,160 10,160

Missouri 207,466 165,941 52,374 48,717 22,762* 21,073*

Nebraska 65,052 65,052 26,440 26,440

--- ---

New Jersey 5,574 5,574 7,266 7,266 3,382 3,382

New York 27,325 18,585 17,543 17,543 8,331 8,331

North Carolina 136,881 57,620 50,587 41,553 22,168 18,455

Ohio 310,230 137,077 92,703 87,493 40,063 37,792

Oklahoma

--- --- --- --- 21,835* 21,835*

Pennsylvania 278,651 112,021 119,986 119,194 52,201 51,912

South Carolina 88,620 88,620 32,498 32,498 13,909 13,909

Tennessee 148,150 58,833 35,703 19,337 14,908 8,016

Texas 243,954 243,954 133,595 133,595 63,043 63,043

Virginia 70,820 35,057 33,242 33,242 14,452 14,452West Virginia 146,174 75,668 59,472 54,582 25,283 23,291

Wisconsin* 79,480 40,126 31,628 30,398 13,704 13,216

Total 3,301,008 2,128,264 609,435 574,107 1,245,869 1,164,910

*Note: as discussed in the preamble to the final rule, EPA is issuing a supplemental proposal to

request comment on inclusion of these six states in the Ozone Season program.

Table A

- 3. 2009 Electricity Net Generation and EPA Base Case Projections for 2012, 2014,

2020 and 2030 for the Contiguous 48 States (Billion kWh)

Historical Base Case

2009 2012 2014 2020 2030

Coal 1,754 1,958 2,017 2,037 2,071

Oil 29 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.19

Natural Gas 917 721 686 823 1,155

Nuclear 799 812 822 832 811

Hydroelectric 272 281 287 287 286

Non

- hydro Renewables 143 233 250 288 328

Other 0 35 45 44 53

Total 3,914 4,041 4,107 4,311 4,704

Source: 2009 data from EIA Electric Power Annual 2009, Table 1.1 (adjusted to represent the Contiguous

48 States for consistency with projections, which are from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA,

2011).

Table A

- 4. Projected Emissions of SO 2 , NO X , and CO 2 with the Base Case (No Further

Controls) and with Transport Rule (Million Tons)

2012 2014

Base TR Chan

ge %

Change Base TR Chan

ge %

Change

SO 2 (Annual) Contiguous

48 States 7.9 3.9

- 3.9

- 50% 7.2 3.4

- 3.8

- 5 2 3 %TR States 7.0 3.0

- 4.0

- 57% 6.2 2.4

- 3. 9 8

- 6 2 1 %

NO X (Annual) Contiguous

48 States 2.1 2.0

- 0.2

- 7% 2.1 1.9

- 0.2

- 9%

TR States 1.4 1.3

- 0.1

- 9% 1.4 1.2

- 0.2

- 11%

NO X (S ummer) Contiguous

48 States 0.9 0.9

- 0.1

- 8 % 0.9 0.8

- 0.1

- 9%

TR States 0.7 0.6

- 0.1

- 9% 0.7 0.6

- 0.1

- 11%

CO 2 ( Annua l ) Contiguous

48 States 2444 24 31

24 30

- 13

- 1% 2482 2454

- 28

- 1%

TR States 1769 1749

1747

- 20 22

- 1% 1799 1765

- 44

- 2%

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. The emissions data presented here are EPA modeling results and

the Transport Rule region includes states modeled for the annual SO 2 and NO

x requirements. “Summer” is from

May 1

– September 30, which is the ozone season. Base case includes Title IV Acid Rain Program, NO

x SIP Call,

and state rules through December 1, 2010.

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 5. 2010 Fossil

- fuel Generation Nationwide and in the Transport Region

(Thousand Megawatthours)

Contiguous

US Transport

Rule Fine

Particle

Area Transport

Rule Ozone

Area

Coal

- fired 1,829,176 1,405,021 1,510,557

Oil

- fired 13,680 5,955 12,080

Natural Gas

- fired 894,598 409,534 633,636

Total 3,954,846 2,598,207 2,989,910

Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly with data for December 2010, Tables 1.6B, 1.7.B, 1.8.B,

1.10.B.

Table A

- 6. Total Fossil

- fuel Capacity Nationwide and in the Transport Region

Contiguous

US Transport Rule

Fine Particle Area Transport Rule

Ozone Area

Pulverized Coal 316 247 266

Combined Cycle 199 97 142

Other Oil/Gas 247 155 196

Total 998 630 743

Source: EPA's NEEDS v4.10.Table A

- 7. Annualized Compliance Cost of the Transport Rule

2012 2014 2020

Annualized Compliance Cost

(billions of 2007$) $1. 7 4 $0. 8 7 $0. 6 4

Note: Numbers rounded to the nearest hundred million for annualized cost.

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 8. Percent of Generation without SO 2 Controls by Coal Sulfur Content, 2014

Very Low

(<0.8

lb/mmBtu) Low

(0.81

- 1.2

lbs/mmBtu) Low

Medium

(1.21

- 1.66

lbs/mmBtu) High

Medium

(1.67

- 3.34

lb/mmBtu) High

(>3.35

lb/mmBtu)

Base Case 27% 37% 8% 15% 13%

Transport Rule 5 8 9 % 2 8 9 % 8 7 % 3% 2%

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 9. Coal Use by Sulfur Category in the PM 2.5 Transport Region for the Base Case

and Transport Rule* (million short tons)

Lignite Subbituminous Bituminous Total

High

sulfur Low

sulfur Very

low

sulfur High

sulfur High

medium

sulfur Low

medium

sulfur Low

sulfur

2012 Base 30 13 145 156 91 211 83 3 732

TR 25 2 77 7 9 255 2

5 6 83 77 195 19 2 74 7 8 12 1 3 723

2014 Base 37 13 145 154 102 216 71 9 747

TR 32 2 108 1

0 6 202 2

0 0 88 92 202 73 7 2 18 1 7 724

*These coal usage results are for the 23 states covered by the rule in the trading program to reduce SO 2 emissions.

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 10. Newly

- Constructed Advanced SO 2 Control Retrofits on Coal

- fired Generationby Technology Built with the Base Case and with the Transport Rule (GW) in 2014

Base

Case Transport

Rule Incremental

Retrofits

Wet FGD 4.6 10. 3 7 5.7 6.0

Dry FGD 3.6 3.8 4.1 0. 2 5

DSI 6.8 9.8 8.9 3.0 2.1

Note: FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurization) and DSI (Dry Sorbent Injection) are advanced SO 2 controls. Source: Integrated

Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 11. Coal

- fired Capacity Operating Advanced Pollution Controls with the Transport

Rule, 2014 (GW)

Existing

Controls

Induced to

Operate Newly

Built

Controls Total

Operational

Controls

FGD 25 2 4 6 7 209

DSI 0 3 2 10 9

SCR 5 0 146

Note: FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurization) and DSI (Dry Sorbent Injection) are advanced SO 2 controls. SCR (Selective

Catalytic Reduction) is an advanced NO X control. Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 12. Projected allowance prices for the four Transport Rule programs in 2012 and

2014 (2007$)

Emission Allowance

Prices ($/Ton)

2012 2014

Annual SO2 Group 1 Trading Program 1,000 1,100 1,1 00 1,300

Annual SO2 Group 2 Trading Program 600 700

Annual NOx Trading Program 500 600

Ozone Season NOx Trading Program 1,3 00 1, 600 1,5 00 1,8 00Table A

- 13. Generation Mix with the Base Case (No Further Controls) and with Transport

Rule, Contiguous US (Thousand GWh)

2009 2012 2014

Historical Base TR Change

from

Base Percent

Change Base TR Change

from

Base Percent

Change

Coal 1,754 1,958 1, 935

93 3 - 23 2 4

- 1.2% 2,017 1, 978

97 7 - 39 40

- 1.9%

Oil 29 0.09 0.09 0.00 -

2.2 0.0

% 0.10 0.11 0.01

5.8%

Natural Gas 917 721 739 7

41 18 2. 5 7 % 686 714 7

1 5 28 2 9 4.1%

Nuclear 799 812 812 0 0.0% 822 829 8

2 8 7 6 0.8%

Hydroelectric 272 281 282 1 0. 2 3 % 287 286

- 1

- 0. 4 3 %

Non

- hydro

Renewables 143 233 239 6 2.7% 250 250 1 0. 2 3 %

Other 0 35 35 0.0 0.0% 45 45 0.6 1.3%

Total 3,914 4,041 4,043 2 0. 0 1 % 4,107 4,102

- 4

- 0.1%

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: 2009 data from EIA Electric Power Annual 2009, Table 2.1 and Net Generation by State by Type of Producer by Energy So urce

(EIA

- 906); 2012 and 2014 projections are from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 14. Total Generation Capacity by 20 14 (GW)

2010 Base TR Change

Pulverized Coal 317 312 307

- 5 6

Natural Gas Combined Cycle 201 205 205 0

Other Oil/Gas 253 232 233 0

Non

- Hydro Renewables 31 70 70 0

Hydro 99 99 99 0

Nuclear 102 103 104 1

Other 5 81 85 4

Total 1,009 1, 029 1, 025 0

Source: 2010 data from EPA's NEEDS v4.10. Projections from Integrated Planning Model run by EPA.

Note: “Renewables” include biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind electric generation capacity.Table A

- 15. Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector with the Base Case (No Further

Controls) and with the Transport Rule (Million Tons)

2009 2012 2014

Supply

Area Historical Base TR Change

from

Base Base TR Change

from

Base

Ap palachia 246 193 184 18 5

- 9 182 186 18 3 4 1

Interior 129 209 189 18 4

- 20 2 6 238 210 21 6

- 27 2 2

West 553 544 565 5 70 21 2 6 554 556 55 2 3

- 1

Waste Coal 14 14 14 0 14 14 0

Imports 19 31 31 0 30 30 0

Total 961 991 983

- 8 1,017 996 99 5

- 21 2 2

Source: Production: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA data), Coal Distribution

-- Annual (Final), web

site http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coaldistrib/a_distributions.html (posted February 18, 2011 ); Waste

Coal: U.S. EIA, Monthly Energy Review, January 2011 Edition, Table 6.1 Coal Overview, web site

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/coal.html (posted January 31, 2011). Imports: U.S. Energy Information

Administration (EIA) and U.S. Census. All projec tions from Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 16. Projected Regional Retail Electricity Prices with the Base Case (No Further

Controls) and with Transport Rule (2007 cents/kWh)

Base Transport Rule Percent Change

2012 2014 2020 2012 2014 2020 2012 2014 2020

ECAR 7.4 7.9 8.1 7.7 8. 2 1 8.3 3.5% 3.0

% 2.9% 3.1

% 2.2% 2.9

%

ERCOT 7.8 8.8 8.7 8.1 8. 9 8 8.8 4.0% 3.4

% 0.2% 0.3

% 1.8% 1.9

%

MAAC 8.4 9.4 10.3 8. 7 8 9.5 10.4 4.6% 4.0

% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2

%

MAIN 7.3 7.9 8.4 7.5 8.1 8.4 2.4% 2.0

% 1.7% 0.9%

MAPP 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.8 8.1 7.9 0.4% 0.7% 0.8

% 0.2% 0.3

%

NY 12.5 13.7 13.3 12. 8 9 13.7 13.4 2.9% 2.5

% 0.4% 0.4%

NE 11.4 12.3 11.8 11.7 12.3 11. 9 8 2.1% 1.8

% - 0.2%

-

0.1% 0.4% 0.6

%

FRCC 9.5 10.2 9.7 9.6 10.2 9.8 1.3% 1.1

% - 0.3%

-

0.2% 0.3% 0.4

%

STV 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8 1.0% 0.9

% 0.5% 0.5

% 0.4% 0.4

%SPP 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.4 0.9% 0.8

% 0.0% 0.1

% - 0.2%

-

0.1%

PNW 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.

0 7.1 6.9 0.6% 0.5

% 0.0% 0.0%

RM 8.6 9.1 9.4 8.7 9.2 9.4 0.9% 0.7

% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3

%

CALI 12.7 13.0 12.5 12.9 13.0 12.5 1.0% 0.8

% -

0.1% 0.0

% 0.2%

TR Region

Average 8.5 9.2 9.2 8.7 9.3 9.3 2. 2 6 % 0.8% 1.0 0.8 %

Contiguous

U.S.

Average 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.6 9.0 9.0 1.7 2.0 % 0. 8 7 % 0. 9 7 %

Source: EPA’s Retail Electricity Price Model.

Table A

- 17. Average Minemouth and Delivered Coal Prices with the Base Case and with

the Transport Rule (2007$/MMBtu)

2012 2014

2007 Base TR Percent

Change

from

Base Base TR Percent

Change

from

Base

Minemouth 1.27 1.35 1.29

- 4. 3 6 % 1.37 1.35

- 1.7%

Delivered 1.76 2.08 2.05

- 1.4% 2.12 2.10

- 0.9%

Source: Historical data from EIA AEO 2010 Reference Case Table 15 (Coal Supply, Distribution, and Prices);

projections from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A

- 18. 2012

- 2030 Weighted Average Henry Hub and Delivered Natural Gas Prices

with the Base Case and with the Transport Rule (2007$/MMBtu)

Base TR Percent

Change

from

Base

Henry Hub 5.32 5.34 0. 4 5 %

Delivered

- Electric Power 5.60 5.62 0. 3 4 %

Delivered

- Residential 10.97 10.99 0.2%Source: Projections from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA (2011) adjusted to Henry Hub prices using

historical data from EIA AEO 2011 reference case to derive residential prices.