U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Fact Sheet 2016–3082

November 2016 Printed on recycled paper

National and Global Petroleum Assessment

Assessment of Undiscovered Continuous Oil and Gas Resources 

in the Dnieper-Donets Basin and North Carpathian Basin Provinces, 

Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Poland, 2015

Introduction

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed an 

assessment of continuous (unconventional) oil and gas 

resources in geologic provinces of Ukraine, Romania, 

Moldova, and part of Poland (fig. 1). The areas and 

resources that were evaluated and assessed included 

Paleozoic shale gas and tight-sandstone gas in the DnieperDonets Basin Province in Ukraine, continuous oil in the 

Oligocene Menilite Shale of the North Carpathian Basin 

Province of Ukraine (however, parts in some areas can 

be as young as lower Miocene [Koltun and others, 1998; 

Pawlewicz, 2006]), and lower Paleozoic (mainly Silurian) 

shale gas that extends across several geologic provinces of 

Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and a small part of Poland.

In the Dnieper-Donets Basin Province, two total 

petroleum systems (TPSs) were identified: (1) a Paleozoic 

Composite TPS containing the Carboniferous Tight 

Sandstone Gas AU and (2) the Carboniferous Rudov Bed 

TPS containing the Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas 

AU. In the North Carpathian Basin Province and neighboring geologic provinces, a Paleozoic Composite TPS and an 

Oligocene Menilite Shale TPS were identified. This TPS 

contains the East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas 

AU, which includes mainly Silurian mudstones and some 

Ordovician mudstones. An Oligocene Menilite Shale TPS 

and corresponding Oligocene Menilite Shale Continuous Oil 

AU were also delineated.

The USGS assessment methodology for continuous 

resources outside of the United States requires that potential source rocks in the AU meet certain criteria, including 

the following: (1) contain at least 2 weight percent or more 

total organic carbon; (2) contain Type I, Type II, or Type IIS 

kerogen; (3) are thermally mature to generate oil and natural 

gas; and (4) contain organic-rich shale greater than 15 meters 

in thickness (Charpentier and Cook, 2011). All four continuous TPSs meet these geologic criteria. Analogs for shalegas, continuous oil, and tight-sandstone gas accumulations 

in the United States were used to quantitatively assess the 

AUs in this study. Specifically, mean estimated ultimate 

recoveries from populations of shale-gas, continuous oil, 

and tight-sandstone gas wells; mean drainage areas of drilled 

wells; and ranges of average well success ratios were used to 

estimate the undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources. 

Principal input data used in the assessment are listed in table 1.

Using a geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean 

resources of 13 million barrels of oil and 2,643 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the Dnieper-Donets Basin and North Carpathian 

Basin Provinces of Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Poland.

Figure 1. Map showing locations of continuous oil and gas assessment unit 

(AU) boundaries in Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Poland.

Undiscovered Resources Summary

The USGS quantitatively assessed oil and gas resources in three 

continuous gas AUs and one continuous oil AU within the Dnieper-Donets 

Basin and North Carpathian Basin Provinces of Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, 

and Poland (table 2). For total undiscovered resources, the estimated means 

are 13 million barrels of continuous oil (MMBO) with an F95–F5 range 

from 3 to 29 MMBO, 2,643 billion cubic feet of natural gas (BCFG) with an 

F95–F5 range from 8 to 8,487 BCFG, and 37 million barrels of natural gas 

liquids (MMBNGL) with an F95–F5 range from 0 to 123 MMBNGL. For 

25° 30° 35° 40° 55°

50°

45° CARPATHIAN-BALKANIAN 

BASIN PROVINCE

DNIEPER-DONETS 

BASIN PROVINCE

GERMANPOLISH

BASIN

RUSSIAN CRATON 

MARGIN PROVINCE

UKRAINIAN SHIELD

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

BELARUS

MINSK

DOBROGEA

FORELAND

PROVINCE

BLACK SEA

SEA

OF

AZOV

NORTH CARPATHIAN 

BASIN PROVINCE

ROMANIA

POLAND

BULGARIA SERBIA

BUCHAREST

Lviv

KIEV

MOLDOVA

TURKEY

Odesa CHIŞINĂU

Donetsk

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service

0 75 150 KILOMETERS

0 75 150 MILES

EXPLANATION

Province boundaries

Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas AU

East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas AU

Oligocene Menilite Shale Continuous Oil AU

Carboniferous Tight Sandstone Gas AU

TURKEY

POLAND

LITHUANIA

RUSSIA

MOLDOVA

Area of

study

ROMANIA

BULGARIA SERBIA

UKRAINE

BELARUS

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA
ISSN 2327-6916 (print) ISSN 2327-6932 (online) https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20163082

gas accumulations, zeros at F95 reflect the 

chance that continuous gas might not exist 

in the AU, and the geologic AU probability 

(risk) was estimated to be less than one.

For continuous gas resources in the 

Dnieper-Donets Basin Province, the estimated means for the Carboniferous Tight 

Sandstone Gas AU are 590 BCFG with an 

F95–F5 range from 0 to 1,771 BCFG and 

12 MMBNGL with an F95–F5 range from 

0 to 36 MMBNGL. For continuous shalegas resources, the estimated means for the 

Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas AU 

are 624 BCFG with an F95–F5 range from 

0 to 1,984 BCFG and 12 MMBNGL with 

an F95–F5 range from 0 to 41 MMBNGL.

For continuous resources in the North 

Carpathian Basin Province, the estimated 

means for the East European Lower 

Paleozoic Shale Gas AU are 1,391 BCFG 

with an F95–F5 range from 0 to 

4,642 BCFG and 11 MMBNGL with an 

F95–F5 range from 0 to 40 MMBNGL. 

The estimated means for the Oligocene 

Menilite Shale Continuous Oil AU are 

13 MMBO with an F95–F5 range from 

3 to 29 MMBO, 38 BCFG with an 

F95–F5 range from 8 to 90 BCFG, and 

2 MMBNGL with an F95–F5 range from 

0 to 6 MMBNGL.

References Cited

Charpentier, R.R., and Cook, T.A., 2011, USGS methodology for assessing continuous petroleum resources: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1167, 

73 p., accessed September 26, 2016, at at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1167/.

Koltun, Yu., Espitalié, J., Kotarba, M., Roure, F., Ellouz, N., and Kosakowski, P., 

1998, Petroleum generation in the Ukrainian External Carpathians and the adjacent foreland: Journal of Petroleum Geology, v. 21, no. 3, p. 265–288.

Pawlewicz, Mark, 2006, Total petroleum systems of the North Carpathian Province 

of Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, and Austria: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2204–D, 26 p.

Table 1. Key assessment input data for the four continuous assessment units in the Dnieper-Donets Basin Province and the North Carpathian 

Basin Province.

[AU, assessment unit; %, percent; EUR, estimated ultimate recovery per well; BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas; MMBO, million barrels of oil. EUR, well drainage area, 

and success ratios are from U.S. shale-gas, continuous oil, and tight-sandstone gas analogs. The average EUR input is the minimum, median, maximum, and calculated 

mean. Shading indicates not applicable]

Table 2. Assessment results for the four continuous assessment units in the Dnieper-Donets Basin Province and the North Carpathian Basin 

Province.

[AU, assessment unit; MMBO, million barrels of oil; BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas; MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. Results shown are fully risked 

estimates. For gas accumulations, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95-percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Assessment input data—

Continuous AU

Carboniferous Tight Sandstone Gas AU Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas AU

Minimum Mode Maximum Calculated mean Minimum Mode Maximum Calculated mean

Potential production area of AU (acres) 5,000 100,000 710,000 271,667 5,000 100,000 690,000 265,000

Average drainage area of wells (acres) 60 90 150 100 80 100 140 107

Success ratios (%) 10 50 90 50 10 50 90 50

Average EUR (BCFG) 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.544 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.72

AU probability 0.8 0.7

Oligocene Menilite Shale Continuous Oil AU East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas AU

Minimum Mode Maximum Calculated 

mean Minimum Mode Maximum Calculated mean

Potential production area of AU (acres) 1,000 75,000 190,000 88,667 5,000 1,000,000 9,470,000 3,491,667

Average drainage area of wells (acres) 200 250 350 267 120 160 200 160

Success ratios (%) 10 50 90 50 10 50 90 50

Average EUR (MMBO, oil; BCFG, gas) 0.04 0.07 0.2 0.077 0.1 0.15 0.8 0.185

AU probability 1.0 0.7

Total petroleum systems 

and assessment units (AUs)

AU 

probability

Accumulation 

type

Total undiscovered resources

Oil (MMBO) Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL)

F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Dnieper-Donets Basin Province

Paleozoic Composite Total Petroleum System

Carboniferous Tight Sandstone Gas AU 0.8 Gas 0 434 1,771 590 0 8 36 12

Carboniferous Rudov Bed Total Petroleum System

Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas AU 0.7 Gas 0 444 1,984 624 0 9 41 12

North Carpathian Basin Province

Paleozoic Composite Total Petroleum System

East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas AU 0.7 Gas 0 853 4,642 1,391 0 6 40 11

Oligocene Menilite Shale Total Petroleum System

Oligocene Menilite Shale Continuous Oil AU 1.0 Oil 3 11 29 13 8 32 90 38 0 2 6 2

Total continuous resources 3 11 29 13 8 1,763 8,487 2,643 0 25 123 37

Ukraine Assessment Team

Timothy R. Klett, Christopher J. Schenk, 

Michael E. Brownfield, Ronald R. Charpentier, 

Tracey J. Mercier, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, 

and Marilyn E. Tennyson

For More Information

Assessment results are available at the 

USGS Energy Resources Program Web site at 

http://energy.usgs.gov/.