Alternate Tables Based on Remedy Sensitivity with Revised Variability Limits

These tables show the impacts of the final remedy including the revisions to the variability limits 

from interagency review. The “track changes” feature illustrates where these results differ from 

the results already presented in the main body of the RIA based on the full breadth of prior EPA 

analyses conducted on the final rule’s remedy. If you do not see any redline changes, that means 

that the results are unaffected by the inclusion of the revised variability limits and the limited 

technical corrections to SO2 budgets in Kentucky, Michigan, and New York. 

Table A-1. Annual Emissions of SO2 and NOx in 2010 and Percentage of Emissions in the 

Transport Rule Affected Region (tons)

SO2 NOX

Transport Rule

Annual NOX and SO2 States 4,251,996 1,424,228

Nationwide

(Contiguous 48 States) 5,165,954 2,136,612

Emissions of Transport Rule 

States as Percentage of 

Nationwide Emissions

82% 67%

Source: EPA emissions data from all reporting units.

Note: Transport Rule annual NOX and SO2 states include Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, 

Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, 

Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Table A-2. Transport Rule Annual NOx and SO2 and NOx Ozone Season State Emission 

Budgets (tons)

SO2

Annual

NOX

Annual

NOX

Ozone Season

2012 and 

2013

2014 and 

Later

2012 

and 

2013

2014 

and 

Later

2012 and 

2013

2014 and 

Later

Alabama

 

216,033 

 

213,258 

 

72,691 

 

71,962 

 

31,746 

 

31,499 

Arkansas --- --- --- ---

 

15,037 

 

15,037 

Florida --- --- --- ---

 

27,825 

 

27,825 
Georgia

 

158,527 

 

95,231 

 

62,010 

 

40,540 

 

27,944 

 

18,279 

Illinois

 

234,889 

 

124,123 

 

47,872 

 

47,872 

 

21,208 

 

21,208 

Indiana

 

285,424 

 

161,111 

 

109,726

 

108,424

 

46,876 

 

46,175 

Iowa

 

107,085 

 

75,184 

 

38,335 

 

37,498 

 

16,532* 

 

16,207*

Kansas

 

41,528 

 

41,528 

 

30,714 

 

25,560 

 

13,536* 

 

10,998* 

Kentucky

 

232,662

 

106,284 

 

85,086 

 

77,238 

 

36,167 

 

32,674 

Louisiana --- --- --- ---

 

13,432 

 

13,432 

Maryland

 

30,120 

 

28,203 

 

16,633 

 

16,574 

 

7,179 

 

7,179 

Michigan

 

229,303

 

143,995 

 

60,193 

 

57,812 

 

25,752* 

 

24,727* 

Minnesota

 

41,981 

 

41,981 

 

29,572 

 

29,572 --- ---

Mississippi --- --- --- ---

 

10,160 

 

10,160 

Missouri

 

207,466 

 

165,941 

 

52,374 

 

48,717 

 

22,762* 

 

21,073* 

Nebraska

 

65,052 

 

65,052 

 

26,440 

 

26,440 --- ---

New Jersey

 

5,574 

 

5,574 

 

7,266 

 

7,266 

 

3,382 

 

3,382 

New York

 

27,325

 

18,585

 

17,543 

 

17,543 

 

8,331 

 

8,331 

North Carolina

 

136,881 

 

57,620 

 

50,587 

 

41,553 

 

22,168 

 

18,455 

Ohio

 

310,230 

 

137,077 

 

92,703 

 

87,493 

 

40,063 

 

37,792 

Oklahoma --- --- --- ---

 

21,835* 

 

21,835* 

Pennsylvania

 

278,651 

 

112,021 

 

119,986

 

119,194

 

52,201 

 

51,912 

South Carolina

 

88,620 

 

88,620 

 

32,498 

 

32,498 

 

13,909 

 

13,909 

Tennessee

 

148,150 

 

58,833 

 

35,703 

 

19,337 

 

14,908 

 

8,016 

Texas

 

243,954 

 

243,954 

 

133,595

 

133,595

 

63,043 

 

63,043 

Virginia

 

70,820 

 

35,057 

 

33,242 

 

33,242 

 

14,452 

 

14,452 
West Virginia

 

146,174 

 

75,668 

 

59,472 

 

54,582 

 

25,283 

 

23,291 

Wisconsin*

 

79,480 

 

40,126 

 

31,628 

 

30,398 

 

13,704 

 

13,216 

Total

 

3,301,008

 

2,128,264

 

609,435

 

574,107

 

1,245,869

 

1,164,910

*Note: as discussed in the preamble to the final rule, EPA is issuing a supplemental proposal to 

request comment on inclusion of these six states in the Ozone Season program.

Table A-3. 2009 Electricity Net Generation and EPA Base Case Projections for 2012, 2014, 

2020 and 2030 for the Contiguous 48 States (Billion kWh)

Historical Base Case

2009 2012 2014 2020 2030

Coal 1,754 1,958 2,017 2,037 2,071

Oil 29 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.19

Natural Gas 917 721 686 823 1,155

Nuclear 799 812 822 832 811

Hydroelectric 272 281 287 287 286

Non-hydro Renewables 143 233 250 288 328

Other 0 35 45 44 53

Total 3,914 4,041 4,107 4,311 4,704

Source: 2009 data from EIA Electric Power Annual 2009, Table 1.1 (adjusted to represent the Contiguous 

48 States for consistency with projections, which are from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 

2011).

Table A-4. Projected Emissions of SO2, NOX, and CO2 with the Base Case (No Further 

Controls) and with Transport Rule (Million Tons)

2012 2014

Base TR

Chan

ge

% 

Change Base TR

Chan

ge

% 

Change

SO2

(Annual)

Contiguous 

48 States 7.9 3.9 -3.9 -50% 7.2 3.4 -3.8 -523%
TR States 7.0 3.0 -4.0 -57% 6.2 2.4 -3.98 -621%

NOX

(Annual)

Contiguous 

48 States 2.1 2.0 -0.2 -7% 2.1 1.9 -0.2 -9%

TR States 1.4 1.3 -0.1 -9% 1.4 1.2 -0.2 -11%

NOX

(Summer)

Contiguous 

48 States 0.9 0.9 -0.1 -8% 0.9 0.8 -0.1 -9%

TR States 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -9% 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -11%

CO2

(Annual)

Contiguous 

48 States 2444

2431

2430 -13 -1% 2482 2454 -28 -1%

TR States 1769

1749

1747 -2022 -1% 1799 1765 -44 -2%

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. The emissions data presented here are EPA modeling results and 

the Transport Rule region includes states modeled for the annual SO2 and NOx requirements. “Summer” is from 

May 1–September 30, which is the ozone season. Base case includes Title IV Acid Rain Program, NOx SIP Call, 

and state rules through December 1, 2010.

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-5. 2010 Fossil-fuel Generation Nationwide and in the Transport Region 

(Thousand Megawatthours)

Contiguous 

US

Transport 

Rule Fine 

Particle 

Area

Transport 

Rule Ozone 

Area

Coal-fired 1,829,176 1,405,021 1,510,557

Oil-fired 13,680 5,955 12,080

Natural Gas-fired 894,598 409,534 633,636

Total 3,954,846 2,598,207 2,989,910

Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly with data for December 2010, Tables 1.6B, 1.7.B, 1.8.B, 

1.10.B.

Table A-6. Total Fossil-fuel Capacity Nationwide and in the Transport Region

Contiguous 

US

Transport Rule 

Fine Particle Area

Transport Rule 

Ozone Area

Pulverized Coal 316 247 266

Combined Cycle 199 97 142

Other Oil/Gas 247 155 196

Total 998 630 743

Source: EPA's NEEDS v4.10.
Table A-7. Annualized Compliance Cost of the Transport Rule

2012 2014 2020

Annualized Compliance Cost

(billions of 2007$) $1.74 $0.87 $0.64

Note: Numbers rounded to the nearest hundred million for annualized cost.

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-8. Percent of Generation without SO2 Controls by Coal Sulfur Content, 2014

Very Low

(<0.8 

lb/mmBtu)

Low

(0.81-1.2 

lbs/mmBtu)

LowMedium

(1.21-1.66 

lbs/mmBtu)

HighMedium

(1.67-3.34 

lb/mmBtu)

High

(>3.35 

lb/mmBtu)

Base Case 27% 37% 8% 15% 13%

Transport Rule 589% 289% 87% 3% 2%

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-9. Coal Use by Sulfur Category in the PM2.5 Transport Region for the Base Case 

and Transport Rule* (million short tons)

Lignite Subbituminous Bituminous Total

High 

sulfur

Low 

sulfur

Very 

low 

sulfur

High 

sulfur

Highmedium 

sulfur

Lowmedium 

sulfur

Low 

sulfur

2012

Base 30 13 145 156 91 211 83 3 732

TR 25 2 7779

2552

56 8377 195192 7478 1213 723

2014

Base 37 13 145 154 102 216 71 9 747

TR 32 2

1081

06

2022

00 8892 202 7372 1817 724

*These coal usage results are for the 23 states covered by the rule in the trading program to reduce SO2 emissions. 

Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-10. Newly-Constructed Advanced SO2 Control Retrofits on Coal-fired Generation 
by Technology Built with the Base Case and with the Transport Rule (GW) in 2014

Base 

Case

Transport 

Rule

Incremental 

Retrofits

Wet FGD 4.6 10.37 5.76.0

Dry FGD 3.6 3.84.1 0.25

DSI 6.8 9.88.9 3.02.1

Note: FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurization) and DSI (Dry Sorbent Injection) are advanced SO2 controls. Source: Integrated 

Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-11. Coal-fired Capacity Operating Advanced Pollution Controls with the Transport 

Rule, 2014 (GW)

Existing 

Controls 

Induced to 

Operate

NewlyBuilt 

Controls

Total 

Operational 

Controls

FGD 2524 67 209

DSI 0 32 109

SCR 5 0 146

Note: FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurization) and DSI (Dry Sorbent Injection) are advanced SO2 controls. SCR (Selective 

Catalytic Reduction) is an advanced NOX control. Source: Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-12. Projected allowance prices for the four Transport Rule programs in 2012 and 

2014 (2007$)

Emission Allowance

Prices ($/Ton)

2012 2014

Annual SO2 Group 1 Trading Program 1,0001,100 1,1001,300

Annual SO2 Group 2 Trading Program 600 700

Annual NOx Trading Program 500 600

Ozone Season NOx Trading Program 1,3001,600 1,5001,800
Table A-13. Generation Mix with the Base Case (No Further Controls) and with Transport 

Rule, Contiguous US (Thousand GWh)

2009 2012 2014

Historical Base TR

Change 

from 

Base

Percent 

Change Base TR

Change 

from 

Base

Percent 

Change

Coal 1,754 1,958 1,935

933 -2324 -1.2% 2,017 1,978977 -3940 -1.9%

Oil 29 0.09 0.09 0.00

-

2.20.0

%

0.10 0.11 0.01

5.8%

Natural Gas 917 721 7397

41 18 2.57% 686 714715 2829 4.1%

Nuclear 799 812 812 0 0.0% 822

8298

28 76 0.8%

Hydroelectric 272 281 282 1 0.23% 287 286 -1 -0.43%

Non-hydro 

Renewables 143 233 239 6 2.7% 250 250 1 0.23%

Other 0 35 35 0.0 0.0% 45 45 0.6 1.3%

Total 3,914 4,041 4,043 2 0.01% 4,107 4,102 -4 -0.1%

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: 2009 data from EIA Electric Power Annual 2009, Table 2.1 and Net Generation by State by Type of Producer by Energy Source 

(EIA-906); 2012 and 2014 projections are from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-14. Total Generation Capacity by 2014 (GW)

2010 Base TR Change

Pulverized Coal 317 312 307 -56

Natural Gas Combined Cycle 201 205 205 0

Other Oil/Gas 253 232 233 0

Non-Hydro Renewables 31 70 70 0

Hydro 99 99 99 0

Nuclear 102 103 104 1

Other 5 81 85 4

Total 1,009 1,029 1,025 0

Source: 2010 data from EPA's NEEDS v4.10. Projections from Integrated Planning Model run by EPA.

Note: “Renewables” include biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind electric generation capacity.
Table A-15. Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector with the Base Case (No Further 

Controls) and with the Transport Rule (Million Tons)

2009 2012 2014

Supply 

Area Historical Base TR

Change 

from 

Base Base TR

Change 

from 

Base

Appalachia 246 193 184185 -9 182 186183 41

Interior 129 209 189184 -2026 238 210216 -2722

West 553 544 565570 2126 554 556552 3-1

Waste Coal 14 14 14 0 14 14 0

Imports 19 31 31 0 30 30 0

Total 961 991 983 -8 1,017 996995 -2122

Source: Production: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA data), Coal Distribution -- Annual (Final), web 

site http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coaldistrib/a_distributions.html (posted February 18, 2011); Waste 

Coal: U.S. EIA, Monthly Energy Review, January 2011 Edition, Table 6.1 Coal Overview, web site 

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/coal.html (posted January 31, 2011). Imports: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration (EIA) and U.S. Census. All projections from Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011. 

Table A-16. Projected Regional Retail Electricity Prices with the Base Case (No Further 

Controls) and with Transport Rule (2007 cents/kWh)

Base Transport Rule Percent Change

2012 2014 2020 2012 2014 2020 2012 2014 2020

ECAR 7.4 7.9 8.1 7.7 8.21 8.3

3.5%3.0

%

2.9%3.1

%

2.2%2.9

%

ERCOT 7.8 8.8 8.7 8.1 8.98 8.8

4.0%3.4

%

0.2%0.3

%

1.8%1.9

%

MAAC 8.4 9.4 10.3 8.78 9.5 10.4

4.6%4.0

% 1.4%

1.1%1.2

%

MAIN 7.3 7.9 8.4 7.5 8.1 8.4

2.4%2.0

% 1.7% 0.9%

MAPP 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.8 8.1 7.9 0.4%

0.7%0.8

%

0.2%0.3

%

NY 12.5 13.7 13.3 12.89 13.7 13.4

2.9%2.5

% 0.4% 0.4%

NE 11.4 12.3 11.8 11.7 12.3 11.98

2.1%1.8

%

-0.2%-

0.1%

0.4%0.6

%

FRCC 9.5 10.2 9.7 9.6 10.2 9.8

1.3%1.1

%

-0.3%-

0.2%

0.3%0.4

%

STV 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8

1.0%0.9

%

0.5%0.5

%

0.4%0.4

%
SPP 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.4

0.9%0.8

%

0.0%0.1

%

-0.2%-

0.1%

PNW 6.9 7.1 6.9

6.97.

0 7.1 6.9

0.6%0.5

% 0.0% 0.0%

RM 8.6 9.1 9.4 8.7 9.2 9.4

0.9%0.7

% 0.2%

0.2%0.3

%

CALI 12.7 13.0 12.5 12.9 13.0 12.5

1.0%0.8

%

-

0.1%0.0

% 0.2%

TR Region 

Average 8.5 9.2 9.2 8.7 9.3 9.3 2.26% 0.8% 1.00.8%

Contiguous 

U.S. 

Average 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.6 9.0 9.0 1.72.0% 0.87% 0.97%

Source: EPA’s Retail Electricity Price Model.

Table A-17. Average Minemouth and Delivered Coal Prices with the Base Case and with 

the Transport Rule (2007$/MMBtu)

2012 2014

2007 Base TR

Percent 

Change 

from 

Base Base TR

Percent 

Change 

from 

Base

Minemouth 1.27 1.35 1.29 -4.36% 1.37 1.35 -1.7%

Delivered 1.76 2.08 2.05 -1.4% 2.12 2.10 -0.9%

Source: Historical data from EIA AEO 2010 Reference Case Table 15 (Coal Supply, Distribution, and Prices); 

projections from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA, 2011.

Table A-18. 2012-2030 Weighted Average Henry Hub and Delivered Natural Gas Prices 

with the Base Case and with the Transport Rule (2007$/MMBtu)

Base TR

Percent 

Change 

from 

Base

Henry Hub 5.32 5.34 0.45%

Delivered - Electric Power 5.60 5.62 0.34%

Delivered - Residential 10.97 10.99 0.2%
Source: Projections from the Integrated Planning Model run by EPA (2011) adjusted to Henry Hub prices using 

historical data from EIA AEO 2011 reference case to derive residential prices.