1

see p.7

Renewable Energy Collaboration Grows

WINTER

ESRL researchers have long worked to 

improve scientific understanding and prediction of weather, climate, and climate change. 

Now, scientists here are doing something 

to help solve the energy and climate crises, 

by using NOAA’s extensive observation 

networks and modeling skills to support 

alternative energy production.

NOAA’s observing networks and models were not developed for or intended to 

support the renewable industry, said Jim 

Wilczak (PSD). But energy companies have 

already begun using NOAA data to guide 

wind farm deployment, select solar sites, and 

predict daily energy demand—and the renewable energy community is asking NOAA 

to do more. 

“NOAA needs to begin thinking of renew- able energy as a primary issue, not second- ary,” said Wilczak. “We are making this an 

active collaboration.”

To that end, Wilczak and Melinda Marquis 

(DO) are leading the agency into a formal 

relationship with the National Renewable 

Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, 20 

miles from ESRL in Boulder. This fall, ESRL 

Director Sandy MacDonald and NREL 

Director Dan Arvizu signed a letter of intent 

to work together on projects that “advance 

National interest.” 

Advancing science in support of the renewable energy industry addresses three linked 

goals, Marquis said: Meeting energy demand, supporting the economy with quality 

jobs, and reducing the emission of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

A more detailed Memorandum of Understanding is in the works, Marquis said, and 

the list of possible collaborative topics is 

long, she said, given ESRL’s “expertise in 

measurement systems, observational networks, and short- and long-term forecasts.” 

During the past few years, ESRL scientists 

have collaborated with NREL on smaller 

projects related to wind energy. Expanded 

work could include establishing wind-energy 

test beds to measure and improve the predic- tion of winds at the 20 m to 200 m height 

of wind turbines—a poorly instrumented 

region of the atmosphere. “There’s costly im- precision in our models,” said Bob Hawsey, 

Associate Director for Renewable Electricity 

and End Use Systems at NREL. 

ESRL researchers could also continue work- ing toward more precise, more high-resolution, and more quickly updated weather 

forecasts, which are key for predicting energy 

demand (heating or cooling) and supply 

ESRL leads NOAA effort to support deployment of renewables 

2008

Inside

Flask Samples 2

Director’s Corner 2

China’s Black Carbon 3

Reaching Out 3

Quick Response Science 3

Achievements 4

Storm Chasing 6

Climate and Water 6

Arctic Skies 8

Joe Concrete checks the forecast before 

heading out to pour a foundation—and 

sighs. There’s a reminder that temperatures 

could drop mid-afternoon, and then the 

usual two numbers: high of 52°F, low of 

31°F. Not enough. If water seeps into setting 

concrete and freezes, it expands, fracturing 

and weakening the material. What Joe really 

needs is the likelihood that temperatures will 

freeze before he finishes work. 

Probabilistic Forecasts 

ESRL quantifies uncertainty to 

improve weather products

Wanted: The notorious greenhouse gas 

carbon dioxide, CO2, and a detailed 

investigation into its activities.

Description: Invisible. 

On CO2’s tail: ESRL scientists, who are using 

instruments on tall towers, air flask analysis, 

and a data assimilation system called Carbon 

Tracker, to track and visualize the gas as it 

swirls around the globe. 

Wouter Peters, working in the Carbon Cycle 

Greenhouse Gases group (CCGG, part of 

GMD), developed the initial version of CarbonTracker, first released in 2007, to better 

follow the origins and destinations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. CO2 has been increasing steadily since the Industrial Revolution because of fossil fuel burning and other 

human activities. 

Dave Metze (WFO, Pueblo, CO), Steve Amburn, (WFO, Tulsa, OK), 

Matt Peroutka (NWS) and Tom LeFebvre (GSD) at ESRL workshop 

Warren Gretz/NREL

Carbon Detectives

Scientists track CO2’s increase

ESRL Quarterly

News from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory

see p.6 see p.4
2

Director’s Corner

By the Numbers 

Flask Samples number of measurements from flasks, in thousands

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

You can almost hear the hinges of history 

creaking as the nation and the world consider policy options to deal with greenhouse gases. 

In December, I attended a celebration of the completion of France’s Presidency of the European 

Union at the French Embassy, and the discussions 

ranged from the recent European greenhouse 

emission agreements to what new directions the 

United States will take during the Obama administration. Many of the Europeans remarked on the 

strong climate orientation of the Obama cabinet 

and other senior nominations. The NOAA mission of understanding and predicting the oceans 

and atmosphere will play a central role in the U.S. 

response to the climate change issue. In this issue of ESRL Quarterly we describe a number of 

research and development activities that will help 

NOAA respond to these new priorities.

The cover article on renewable energy describes 

many areas of research that are important for the 

future of renewable energy. An important example is the design of the national energy grid. Two 

forms of renewable energy that are already economically viable for large-scale power generation 

are wind turbine farms and solar thermal plants 

(power plants that concentrate the sun’s heat using mirrors). Each of these renewable energy 

sources has a limited geographic range in which 

it is most economical. In our competitive marketbased system, this means that, for example, a large 

part of the wind energy generation will be located 

on the Great Plains from North Dakota to Texas, 

while solar thermal plants will thrive in the desert 

southwest. The design of a national renewable energy system should ideally have excellent low-cost 

power transmission across the country, combined 

with a national architecture of renewable power 

generation that takes advantage of the spatial variability of weather—to decrease the time variation 

of national renewable power availability. The collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL, and ESRL thus brings together two institutions with complementary areas 

of expertise, both of which are critical to design of 

the national renewable energy system.

The fact that ESRL and NREL are complementary 

in their disciplines is important, but there is another compelling reason for joint effort. ESRL, as 

part of NOAA, works closely with the National 

Weather Service (NWS) to assure that NOAA’s 

operations will meet the requirements of the renewable energy era. NWS does not currently forecast the precise physical phenomena needed for 

renewable energy generation. Winds at the 100 

meter level and direct and diffuse solar energy 

will be best predicted by implementing national 

observing and high-resolution operational modeling systems that meet those requirements. Fortunately, these needs are close to what the NWS 

needs to do to improve aviation weather, severe 

weather warnings, and other important national 

priorities. A couple of months ago, I had the opportunity to meet with NOAA OAR Assistant 

Administrator Rick Spinrad and NWS Assistant 

Administrator Jack Hayes to discuss how NOAA’s 

research could expedite the improvements needed 

for the next generation of the NWS operational 

system. By working with ESRL, NREL assures 

that the operational prediction system is being 

developed with this important new requirement 

in mind. For ESRL, it is a good example of prioritizing endeavors that prepare NOAA for its future 

mission.

As NOAA studies the need for a National Climate 

Service (NCS), it is easy to see the relevance of 

ESRL’s extensive work on carbon and the Arctic, 

both discussed in this issue, and both at the core 

of NOAA’s future mission needs. The amazing decrease in Arctic Ocean summer ice in the last two 

years is the latest evidence that we need to understand the Arctic climate much better. In the case 

of carbon, the world is entering an era in which 

tracking carbon with observations and models is 

extremely important. Field campaigns like ARCPAC, the circumpolar Arctic observatories, and 

the rapid increase of GMD’s global flask measurement network all prepare NOAA for the coming 

enlargement of its mission.

—Alexander MacDonald

Pat Lang (ESRL GMD) preparing flasks for sampling 

For 40 years, ESRL researchers have been measuring trace gases in air samples collected weekly 

in glass flasks from dozens of sites around the 

world. The result of this cooperative global effort 

is an invaluable long-term record of many critical gases, from those that contribute to climate 

change to those that deplete the ozone layer. 

Flask data document the rise in concentration 

of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, and the 

decline of ozone-depleters, which were phased 

out in accordance with an international treaty. In 

1967, only carbon dioxide was measured. Today, 

ESRL GMD scientists measure more than 62 

“species” from flasks, including, for example, the 

isotopic ratios of carbon dioxide, which can help 

researchers determine whether the gas came 

from land or sea sources.

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
3

Quick Response Science

In the autumn, plumes of air laden with black 

carbon and other particles sweep southwest 

out of China’s industrial Pearl River Delta, 

formed from diesel combustion, biomass burning, and other activities in Guangzhou and 

Hong Kong. Two ESRL scientists traveled to a 

research station in rural South China this fall, 

to help scientific colleagues track black carbon 

and other pollutants downwind of the delta. 

“We are particularly interested in black carbon, 

because it is a very potent warming agent,” said 

Ru-Shan Gao (ESRL CSD). 

Researchers have long understood that black 

carbon can damage lungs—that is one of 

the motivations for the regional Chinese air 

quality experiment in which Gao and Joshua 

Schwarz (ESRL CSD) participated. In recent 

years, it has also become clear that the particles 

contribute significantly to atmospheric warming, by absorbing sunlight rather than reflecting it as many other aerosols do. 

Gao, Schwarz, and their colleagues are trying 

to better quantify black carbon abundance and 

its role in warming. Climate modelers are interested in using reliable black carbon data to 

improve model accuracy, Schwarz said.

The ESRL scientists were hosted by Professor 

Xiaofeng Huang of Peking University, a principal investigator of the multiple-site, regional 

project 3C-STAR (Synthesized Prevention 

Techniques for Air Pollution Complex and 

Integrated Demonstration in Key City-Cluster 

Region). Sites included the megacity of Guangzhou, an area upwind, and the rural Jiangmen 

research station downwind. In Jiangmen, the 

ESRL scientists and Huang used a SingleParticle Soot Photometer (SP2) to measure the 

concentration and size distribution of black 

carbon particles in air. 

“The SP2 can be tricky to optimize,” Gao 

said. “To produce good data, it needs a lot of 

fine tuning.” He and Schwarz, an SP2 expert, 

helped Huang better understand and use the 

instrument. In return, the ESRL researchers 

will be able to analyze black carbon data from 

a region unlike any in the United States.

“If I think about our highest measurement in 

urban Houston, well, this was about four times 

higher, and we were in a rural area, far downwind of sources,” Schwarz said. 

The early data look interesting, Schwarz said, 

and there was at least one completely unexpected event. About 3 a.m., black carbon levels 

tripled for an hour or so. The spikes likely 

came from illegal tire burning, done at night, 

possibly to recycle metals inside the tires.

Joshua Schwarz (ESRL CSD) and Xiofeng Huang

Led by ESRL’s Outreach Team, NOAA hosted 

more than 500 visitors this fall: 20 middle 

school teachers from around the country, 

275 8th grade students from Boulder Valley 

School District, 100 2nd grade students 

from Mesa Elementary, more than 150 folks 

for “Bring Your Family to NOAA,” and 40 

Colorado teachers for a workshop on bringing 

NOAA science into classrooms. Visitors saw 

Science On a Sphere®; witnessed the workings 

of NOAA laboratories and centers; and 

learned about the scope of research here, from 

the poles to tropical oceans, on mountains, 

ships, and inside hurricanes. The Team also 

“took the NOAA show on the road” to local 

schools, science and education conventions, 

and career fairs.

Reaching Out

Ru-Shan Gao/CSD

After wildfires scorched more than 

150,000 acres of mountainous terrain 

near Big Sur, CA this past summer, U.S. 

Geological Survey scientists surveyed 

the damage and discovered a significant 

risk of devastating debris flows. Even a 

moderate rainstorm could quickly get 

soil, rock, and vegetation moving down 

dozens of drainage basins. 

Weather forecasters already knew that 

operational radar coverage in the area was 

inadequate for detecting low-altitude rain 

clouds. Given the high risk—and a recent 

history of debris flows in fire-scorched areas of Southern California—the National 

Weather Service asked for ESRL’s help.

It was late September when David Reynolds, the Meteorologist-In-Charge at the 

National Weather Service’s San Francisco/

Monterey Weather Forecast Office, made 

the request. By the end of October, Marty 

Ralph (ESRL PSD), Allen White (ESRL 

PSD), and colleagues had state-of-the-art 

weather probing instruments up and running at Point Sur, including an S-band 

precipitation profiling radar. The goal: 

Give weather forecasters the information 

they need to issue earlier warnings when 

rain threatens the burn area. Shallow rain 

clouds form when moist air off the Pacific 

Ocean flows up coastal mountain slopes. 

These clouds consistently elude the 

Weather Service’s operational radar.

Nov. 1, a bank of these shallow clouds 

began to drop rain along the coast near 

Big Sur, invisible to the closest National 

Weather Service NEXRAD radar, in 

Monterey. The shallow rain echo was 

clearly observed by the new Point Sur Sband radar, which had been operating for 

just a couple of days.

“As soon as we hit the first hour of rain 

falling at a rate of 0.6 inches an hour, the 

debris was coming down the hill,” exactly 

as the Geological Survey study predicted, 

Reynolds said. Rocks, mud, tree trunks, 

and branches roared down two drainages, 

he said. One of the flows filled a house 

with a couple feet of mud and continued 

on into the local Grange Hall, forcing 

election officials to find another polling 

site. 

The S-band radar saw the rain as it was 

falling, precluding officials from issuing 

a warning, Reynolds said. But another 

tool at Point Sur—a suite of instruments 

developed by ESRL scientists combining measured winds aloft with integrated 

water vapor provided by a GPS receiver—

should allow a short-term prediction of 

rainfall potential. That system is available 

now, White said. 

“It might just give us the lead time we 

need for saving lives,” Reynolds said.

China’s Black Carbon
4

Achievements, in brief

The following sections—News, Honored, and Published—highlight a few measures of ESRL’s impact. 

News

Ozone Loss

In September, ESRL 

scientists reported that 

the ozone hole over 

Antarctica was fifth 

largest on record, since 

NOAA satellite records 

began in 1979. The ozone layer protects 

Earth’s surface from damaging radiation, and 

ozone loss is caused primarily by humanproduced chemicals, although the size of the 

hole fluctuates with temperature and sunlight. 

A ban on ozone-depleting substances has led 

to improvements, but colder-than-average 

temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere 

may have pushed the ozone hole to develop 

more fully this year. 

New Displays

In October and November, Science On 

a Sphere® (SOS) presided at a European 

Parliament event in France, “Strasbourg in 

Space.” ESRL Director Sandy MacDonald 

invented SOS, which vividly shows the 

changing global environment. 

Montreal Protocol

ESRL CSD Director A.R. Ravishankara 

attended the 20th Meeting of the Parties 

to the Montreal Protocol (ozone layer) in 

Doha, Qatar, serving in his capacity as cochair of the Protocol’s Scientific Assessment 

Panel. Discussions focused on strengthening 

international agreements related to 

hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which 

are substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons 

(CFCs). HCFCs are more ozone friendly 

than the CFCs they replace, but still destroy 

some stratospheric ozone. ESRL CSD scientist 

David Fahey also attended the Doha meeting, 

and participated in discussions of ozone, 

climate, and the warming avoided by the 

Montreal Protocol.

People

John Schneider, formerly Deputy Director 

of ESRL GSD) became the ESRL Deputy 

Director for Research. Robbie Hood (formerly 

NASA) was hired to lead NOAA’s Unmanned 

Aircraft Systems (UAS) program, from ESRL. 

Service

Northrup Grumman used data from ESRL’s 

surface radiation network (SURFRAD) during 

research at the Nevada Test Site this fall. ESRL 

scientists created a web site to accommodate 

the company’s need for data updates every 15 

minutes, from a SURFRAD station at Desert 

Rock, Nevada. Northrup Grumman used the 

data to remove the atmospheric contribution 

from other signals.

VOCALS 

experiment

ESRL scientists 

participated 

in December’s 

international 

VAMOS OceanCloud-Atmosphere-Land Study, focused on 

a region of the Pacific Ocean where broad 

decks of stratocumulus clouds form. VOCALS 

is designed to improve understanding of the 

southeast Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphereland system. Chris Fairall (ESRL PSD) was 

aboard the Research Vessel Ron Brown, off 

Chile and Graham Feingold (ESRL CSD) 

was stationed at Iquique, Chile, for the 

aircraft part of the mission. ESRL tested a 

new radar system on the cruise; the radar 

took measurements of winds, turbulence, 

and aerosols, and was especially sensitive to 

drizzle and stratus-type clouds. 

Honored

Chris Fairall (ESRL PSD) was awarded the 

American Meteorological Society’s 2009 

Sverdrup Gold Medal Award for outstanding 

contributions to the scientific knowledge 

of interactions between the oceans and the 

atmosphere....Susan Solomon (ESRL CSD) 

earned a Distinguished Presidential Rank 

Award, for outstanding leadership and service 

to the federal government....ESRL scientists 

co-authored six of the nine papers that earned 

OAR Outstanding Scientific Paper Awards 

this fall. Special recognition went to the 

IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical 

Basis, co-chaired by Susan Solomon. Other 

winning papers were: Wouter Peters1, Andrew 

Jacobson1, Colm Sweeney1, Arlyn Andrews1, 

Thomas Conway1

, Kenneth Masarie1, John 

Miller1, Lori Bruhwiler1, Gabrielle Petron1, 

Adam Hirsch1, Douglas Worthy, Guido van 

der Werf, James Randerson, Paul Wennberg, 

Maarten Krol, and Pieter Tans1, 2007, An 

atmospheric perspective on North American 

carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker, 

PNAS, 104....Xuebin Zhang, Francis Zwiers, 

Gabriele Hegerl, Hugo Lambert, Nathan 

He’s not alone, said Paul Schultz, an ESRL 

meteorologist (GSD). Businesses and 

governments are making increasingly 

sophisticated weather-related decisions. A city 

might understand precisely the financial and 

safety risks involved when ice threatens roads 

and managers must determine if de-icing is 

necessary—but the weather variables often 

remain poorly defined. 

“We need to start quantifying uncertainty,” 

said Schultz, who has spent the last year 

figuring out how to better incorporate 

probabilities into weather forecasts. This 

fall, Schultz and his colleagues brought five 

National Weather Service forecasters to ESRL. 

They tested several probabilistic forecasting 

concepts that could be included in the next 

generation of AWIPS, the workstation used 

in National Weather Service offices around 

the country. The ESRL workshop was part 

of a growing NOAA enterprise dedicated to 

improving the agency’s communication of 

forecast uncertainty. 

“Our users are demanding complete 

forecasts...and that includes uncertainty 

information,” said Douglas Hilderbrand, 

NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Program 

Manager from NWS’s Office of Science and 

Technology. “Probabilistic weather forecasts 

are extremely important for risk-based 

decision making. Customers not only want 

the most likely outcome, but quantification of 

the full range of possibilities.” 

Being able to provide probabilities of certain 

types of weather occurring—the possible 

times when rain will start freezing, the 

possible locations of a squall line—into 

mathematical decision tools will help users, 

Hilderbrand said. “Better decisions can be 

made for many parts of our economy, from 

rerouting aircraft based on probabilistic 

convective forecasts that saves fuel, to more 

effective water resource management.”

Probabilistic forecasting requires ensembles of 

forecasts, which can be analyzed statistically. If 

a forecaster can access 10 sets of model output 

in the future, the mean might suggest a high 

of 52°F, which could be reported along with 

statistical uncertainty. Perhaps the ensembles 

suggest an 80 percent chance that the high will 

fall between 49° and 53° (at 10 and 90

 percent likelihoods, respectively). Or, if 50° 

represents a critical threshold in a certain 

region, a forecaster could easily calculate the 

probability of exceeding it. 

Two years ago, a National Research Council 

study concluded, “no forecast is complete 

without a description of its uncertainty.” The 

study charged NOAA with incorporating 

uncertainty information in predictions. 

AWIPS II, expected by 2010, will eventually 

include probabilistic tools created by GSD, 

Schultz said.

 “We can do better,” Schultz said. “As a 

provider of this kind of information, I want 

to give as accurate and scientific information 

as possible. We know it will save everyone 

money.” 

...PROBABILISTIC, from p .1 

NOAA’s probabilistic forecasting efforts 

are guided by the NOAA/NWS Forecast 

Uncertainty Steering Team. ESRL members 

include Schultz, Tom Hamill (PSD) and 

Steve Koch (GSD Director). NOAA is 

working closely with private industry, too, 

through the American Meteorological 

Society’s Ad-Hoc Committee on 

Uncertainty in Forecasts. 
5

Gillett, Susan Solomon2, Peter Stott, and 

Toru Nozawa, 2007, Detection of Human 

Influence on Twentieth-Century Precipitation 

Trends, Nature, 448....Thomas Hamill3, 

Jeffrey Whitaker3, and Steven Mullen, 2007, 

REFORECASTS: An Important Dataset for 

Improving Weather Predictions, BAMS, 

87....Larry McMillin, Jiang Zhao, Rama 

Varma Raja, Seth Gutman4 and James Yoe, 

2007, Radiosonde humidity corrections and 

potential Atmospheric Infrared Sounder 

moisture accuracy, J. Geophys. Res., 112....

Tracy Lorraine Smith4, Stanley Benjamin4, 

Seth Gutman4, and Susan Sahm4, 2007, Shortrange forecast impact from assimilation of 

GPS-IPW observations into the Rapid Update 

Cycle, Mon. Wea. Rev. 135....Anatta wrote one 

of NOAA’s top five NOAA press releases from 

this fall, ranked by “hits” from the media....

Steve Koch (ESRL GSD Director) and Carl 

Bullock (ESRL GSD) became AMS fellows....

Debra Wilson (ESRL CSD) and Sharon Berner

(OAR in Boulder) were given OAR’s 2008 

Research Employee of the Year Awards. ESRL’s 

1

GMD, 2CSD, 3PSD, 4GSD.

Published 

More publications can be found on division 

web sites (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/

publications/, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

psd/pubs/2008/, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

csd/pubs/, and http://www.fsl.noaa.gov/

publications/ [GSD].)

Campbell, J.E., G.R. Carmichael, T. Chai, M. MenaCarrasco, Y. Tang, D.R. Blake, N.J. Blake, S.A. Vay, 

G.J. Collatz, I. Baker, J. A. Berry, S.A. Montzka, C. 

Sweeney, J.L. Schnoor, and C.O. Stanier, 2008, Photosynthetic Control of Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide During the Growing Season, Science, 322. ESRL 

scientists and colleagues found that atmospheric 

gradients for COS during the growing season are 

controlled primarily by plants undergoing photosynthesis. The results provide additional evidence 

that COS may provide unique insights into the uptake of CO2 by terrestrial vegetation. 

Koch, S.E., C. Flamant, J.W. Wilson, B.M. Gentry, 

and B.D. Jamison, 2008, An atmospheric soliton 

observed with Doppler radar differential absorption 

lidar, and molecular Doppler lidar, J. Atmos. 

Oceanic Tech., 25. This paper describes the use of 

remote sensing data to derive the detailed structure 

and dynamics of an atmospheric soliton during 

the International H20 Project (IHOP). Solitons can 

trigger new convection, and a goal of IHOP was to 

improve convective rainfall prediction.

Li, W., Y. Xie, Z. He, K. Liu, G. Han, J. Ma, and 

D. Li, 2008, Application of the Multigrid Method 

Geir Braathen/WMO

Mary Fairall 

Susan Solomon (ESRL CSD) Chris Fairall (ESRL PSD) 

A.R. Ravishankara 

(ESRL CSD Director, 

third from right) at 

the Meeting of the 

Parties to the U.N. 

Montreal Protocol in 

Doha, Qatar

to the China Seas’ Temperature Forecast,

J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 25. This paper 

describes use of a new assimilation scheme 

to quickly minimize errors in the analysis 

of sea surface temperature and shipboard 

data. In a test of sea surface temperature 

forecasts, the new method was more 

accurate than the traditional one. 

Lu, M.-L., G. Feingold, H.H. Jonsson, P.Y. 

Chuang, H. Gates, R.C. Flagan, and J.H. 

Seinfeld, 2008, Aerosol-cloud relationships 

in continental shallow cumulus, J. 

Geophys. Res., 113. Using aircraft data 

from a climate and air quality study in the 

Houston region, these authors performed 

an extensive analysis of aerosol effects 

on cumulus clouds. They quantified the 

role that aerosols play in modifying cloud 

microphysical properties, and their radiative 

forcing of climate.

Mastepanov, M., C. Sigsgaard, E.J. Dlugokencky, 

S. Houweling, L. Ström, M.P. Tamstorf, and T.R. 

Christensen, Large tundra methane burst during 

onset of freezing, 2008, Nature, 456. The authors 

report bursts of methane released from permafrost 

during the onset of freezing. 

Neff W., J. Perlwitz, and M. Hoerling, 2008, 

Observational evidence for asymmetric changes in 

tropospheric heights over Antarctica on decadal 

time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(18). This new 

analysis of five decades of Antarctic sounding 

data shows that the Antarctic troposphere lying in 

the Western Hemisphere is responding to ozone 

depletion and climate change much differently than 

indicated from coastal observations in the Eastern 

Hemisphere.

Neiman, P.J., F.M. Ralph, G.A. Wick, Y.H. Kuo, T.K. 

Wee, Z.Z. Ma, G.H. Taylor, and M.D. Dettinger, 

2008, Diagnosis of an Intense Atmospheric River 

Impacting the Pacific Northwest: Storm Summary 

and Offshore Vertical Structure Observed with 

COSMIC Satellite Retrievals, Mon. Wea. Rev., 136 (11). The results show that the new COSMIC 

retrievals, which are global, provide highresolution vertical-profile information beyond that 

found in the numerical model first-guess fields 

and can help monitor key lower-tropospheric 

mesoscale phenomena in data-sparse regions.

Shupe, M.D., J.S. Daniel, G. De Boer, E.W. Eloranta, 

P. Kollias, E. Luke, C.N. Long, D.D. Turner, and J. 

Verlinde, 2008, A focus on mixed-phase clouds: 

The status of ground-based observational methods,

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87. This overview paper 

describes the status of our ability to use groundbased measurements to characterize clouds 

containing both liquid water and ice. Such “mixedphase” clouds play a key role in Arctic and global 

climate.

Spackman, J.R., J.P. Schwarz, R.S. Gao, L.A. Watts, 

D.S. Thomson, D.W. Fahey, J.S. Holloway J.A. 

de Gouw, M. Trainer, and T.B. Ryerson, 2008, 

Empirical correlations between black carbon 

aerosol and carbon monoxide in the lower and 

middle troposphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35. 

This paper describes the observed black carbon 

(“soot”) vertical profile in the lower and middle 

troposphere, which constrains aerosol models 

that estimate regional and global radiative forcing. 

The black carbon/carbon monoxide emission 

ratios, derived for an urban/industrial region and 

a biomass-burning plume, improve air quality 

models.

Stark, H., S.S. Brown, J.B. Burkholder, M. Aldener, 

V. Riffault, T. Gierczak, and A.R. Ravishankara, 

2008, Overtone dissociation of peroxynitric 

acid (HO2NO2): Absorption cross sections and 

photolysis products, J. Phys. Chem. A, 112(39). We 

used a sensitive laboratory laser-based technique 

to measure light absorption spectra of peroxynitric 

acid, a gas important for atmospheric oxidation, 

which is formed under dark and cold conditions. 

Our new results indicate slightly increased 

oxidative capacity of the atmosphere.

Tollerud, E.I., F. Caracena, S.E. Koch, B.D. Jamison, 

R.M. Hardesty, B.J. McCarty, C. Kiemle, R.S. 

Collander, D.L. Bartels, S. Albers, B. Shaw, D.L. 

Birkenheuer, and W.A. Brewer, 2008, Mesoscale 

moisture transport by the low-level jet during the 

IHOP Field Experiment, Mon. Wea. Rev., 136. 

This paper reports improved measurements (with 

lidar) of narrow “atmospheric rivers,” which are 

associated with the low-level jet over the central 

Great Plains. The authors conclude that models 

such as WRF could be improved with better 

vertical resolution and initialization fields. 

Turnbull, J.C., J.B. Miller, S.J. Lehman, D. Hurst, 

W. Peters, P.P. Tans, J. Southon, S.A. Montzka, J.W. 

Elkins, D.J. Mondeel, P.A. Romashkin, N. Elansky, 

and A. Skorokhod, 2008, Spatial distribution of 

Delta 14CO2 across Eurasia: Measurements from 

the TROICA-8 expedition, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 

Discuss., 8. ESRL scientists and Russian colleagues 

show that delta 14CO2 observations increased from 

Western Russia (40°E) to Eastern Siberia (120°E) 

during the train-based TROICA-8 expedition 

across Eurasia in March-April 2004. The results 

are consistent with dispersion of fossil fuel plumes 

from Europe. 

Carlye Calvin/NCAR Mary Fairall
6

Storm Chasing by Balloon

Flotillas target data-poor areas to improve hurricane forecasts

Colorado water resource managers should 

prepare for warmer temperatures and earlier 

runoff in most of the state’s river basins, 

according to an assessment of climate change 

by CIRES, NOAA ESRL, and Colorado 

State University researchers. The team 

analyzed the possible effects of climate 

change on Colorado’s water resources—for 

state water providers, the Colorado Water 

Conservation Board, and the Governor. The 

scientists did not detect consistent trends in 

state precipitation in the past 30 years, but 

temperatures here rose by 2°F during that 

period of time, and peak streamflow from 

snowmelt shifted earlier by about two weeks. 

Changes in the nature of Colorado’s water 

resources are expected to occur regardless 

of future precipitation changes. Earlier melt, 

increased evaporation, and drier soils will 

reduce runoff for most of the state’s river 

basins, with a 6 to 20 percent decline in 

Colorado River streamflows by the middle of 

this century, the report concluded.

http://cwcb.state.co.us/Home/ClimateChange/

ClimateChangeCOReport.htm

As Hurricane Paloma churned through the 

Caribbean Sea south of Cuba in November, 

four teams of NOAA-trained students and scientists got ready. In a carefully choreographed 

experiment, the teams released 57 superpressure balloons, from Florida, Mississippi, Barbados, and Puerto Rico. 

The mylar balloons, 3 to 5 feet in diameter 

and pyramid-shaped, carried Global Positioning Systems and transmitters—and the high 

expectations of NOAA and Department of 

Homeland Security (DHS) researchers. 

“The purpose was to test the concept that long 

drift balloons could be used to report back 

data in real time from data-poor regions,” said 

ESRL Director Sandy MacDonald, who began 

laying plans for WISDOM (Weather In-Situ 

Deployment Optimization Method) in late 

2007. 

With the 2008 hurricane season already underway, DHS funded a pilot project. Justyna 

Nicinska, WISDOM project manager at 

NOAA Headquarters, and Russ Chadwick 

(ESRL GSD) quickly worked with Near Space 

Corporation and Engenium Technologies 

Corporation to design the balloons/payload 

system and train meteorology students to release the devices. 

In an October test run, students and staff 

released 19 balloons, which ESRL tracked in 

the atmosphere for up to two weeks. As Hurricane Paloma took shape in early November, 

the teams launched and tracked a flotilla of 57 

more. 

“We learned this is a viable method to obtain 

data,” Nicinska said in late November, as hurricane season wound down. 

The superpressure balloons are not aimed at a 

hurricane itself, Nicinska said. Rather, they’re 

targeted at atmospheric regions that a storm 

may pass through, where winds, temperature, 

and humidity can steer, strengthen, or weaken 

the hurricane. Today, scientists have only 

limited data on the atmosphere over oceans, 

Nicinska said, and sending a couple hundred 

or more instrument-bearing balloons into 

flight in advance of a threatening hurricane 

should, in theory, give researchers better information to forecast the storm’s behavior.

This year’s balloons carried only GPS units, 

but the WISDOM team hopes also to measure temperature and relative humidity in the 

future, and to send out many more balloons. 

Eventually, WISDOM data will be incorporated into forecasts of hurricane track and 

intensity, Chadwick said, but it will be several 

years until researchers understand the value of 

the new measurements. 

“The key to making something work is to 

get data where there isn’t any,” Chadwick 

said. “WISDOM can do that, and therefore it 

should help.” 

WISDOM Season One Stats:

140: Number of superpressure balloons and 

GPS units built for WISDOM, including 10 

prototypes

78: Number of balloons launched

2 to 15: Number of days individual balloons 

remained aloft

20 to 25: People trained to release balloons, 

from students at the University of Miami, 

Mississippi State University, the Caribbean 

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, to 

NOAA staff in Puerto Rico. 

Climate Change and 

Colorado’s Water

...RENEWABLES, from p.1 

(clouds and wind speeds matter if wind or 

solar energy is in the mix.) 

ESRL also maintains a sparse surface radiation network, eight sites in the United States 

that provide ground truth for error-prone 

satellite solar measurements, Marquis said. 

NREL and others could benefit quickly if 

NOAA revived eight additional sites that are 

currently instrumented but not operated.

To encourage collaboration and foster 

information exchange, ESRL and NREL 

launched a joint seminar series this fall. 

NREL engineer Chuck Kutscher presented 

the inaugural lecture to a standing-roomonly crowd of about 150 at ESRL.

“Governor Ritter has made it clear that 

Colorado’s new energy economy revolves 

around renewable energy,” Kutscher said after his lecture. “We have here in our state all 

Jamie Vavra/NWS

September WISDOM training in Miami, FL

Joe Barsugli (ESRL PSD) at the October Governor’s Conference on Managing Drought and Climate Risk

6

Barbara Gonzalez/University of Miami
7

“CarbonTracker is a new way to model the 

sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in a way 

that maintains consistency with observations 

of CO2 in the atmosphere,” said Pieter Tans, 

CCGG leader. “CO2 is the main human-controlled driver of climate change, and it is going 

to be even more important in the future,” Tans 

said. Eventually, carbon regulations may require governments or industries to account for 

greenhouse gas emissions—some municipalities are already trying to do so. 

This fall, GMD scientists, in collaboration 

with many others, updated CarbonTracker 

with quality controlled carbon dioxide data 

gathered last year from more sites around the 

world, and with improved models. Data are 

available free online in several formats, but 

among the most popular are short movies 

that animate the invisible gas. In the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, purples and blues, 

indicating lowered CO2, swirl across North 

America, as growing forests and other ecosystems pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and into 

plant tissue. In spring, fall, and winter, reds 

and yellows highlight CO2 emissions from 

cars, cities, power plants, and natural cycles. 

“Because it is invisible and non-toxic, CO2 is 

just not very real to many people. That may 

contribute to skepticism,” Tans said. “So there 

is value in simply visualizing these swirls.”

Eventually, the ESRL team and colleagues 

hope to make the system precise enough to 

inventory CO2 sources and sinks by sector 

and by region, accounting for power plants, 

cars, growing forests, regional drought, and 

more. “For that, we really need much higher 

resolution observations, and higher-resolution 

transport models,” Tans said. 

NOAA’s relatively sparse network of observations picked up a clear atmospheric signature 

of the 2002 drought, which affected 

the entire North American continent, but it could not catch the 

drought in the U.S. Southeast 

this summer. 

Every month, more than 200 

people download some kind 

of data from the CarbonTracker site, said Ken Masarie 

(ESRL GMD), and at least 

10 researchers per month 

are downloading the actual 

CarbonTracker source code. 

“They’re using CarbonTracker 

results to compare with other 

reanalysis products and with 

detailed, regional measurements, 

and to provide initial conditions for 

their high-resolution, regional scale 

models,” Masarie said. 

Scott Denning, a Colorado State University 

atmospheric scientist, said he’s used CarbonTracker in his own work, and is grateful that 

ESRL has made the source code for the system 

free and easy to access.

“As scientists, we get credit with our community by publishing results, and so normally, 

when people do analysis like this, they might 

publish a few plots and several pages of information,” Denning said. “This is amazing in 

that this is completely open. You can actually 

re-create the whole thing.”

Denning said he’s shown CarbonTracker 

movies to students, and also to his 73-yearold mother. “My mom is never going to read 

the Journal of Geophysical Research, or learn 

about inverse modeling, but she can watch the 

movie and say, ‘Wow! So why is it green over 

there?’” 

Denning 

said CarbonTracker is part of a growing community 

of scientists around the world trying to piece 

together the planet’s precise carbon budget. 

A new NASA satellite, scheduled for launch 

next year, will help clarify carbon sources and 

sinks. Sinks are critical, Denning said. “Half 

the world’s fossil fuel emissions are being 

vacuumed up by poorly understood processes. We need programs like CarbonTracker 

to help us understand how it works so we’ll 

be able to predict how it might change in the 

future.”

www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/

 YouTube: search “carbontracker”

Chuck Kutscher (NREL) 

...CARBON TRACKERS, from p.1

7

these experts on climate change, water issues, 

and renewable energy...It’s time for us not 

to be working as independent groups, but to 

collaborate with an overall vision to solving 

these issues. We’re all in this together.” 

Marquis and Stan Benjamin (ESRL GSD) 

spoke at NREL in November. Benjamin and 

others in his group have created some of 

ESRL’s highest-resolution weather prediction 

models, and are continually improving them. 

“Precise weather forecasts of solar and wind 

are going to allow you folks to make precise 

forecasts of transmission and storage needs,” 

Benjamin said. 

Lucy Pao, a professor specializing in control 

systems at the University of Colorado at 

Boulder, applauded ESRL’s growing work in 

renewable energy forecasting. “I’m very interested in tying together atmospheric science 

and engineering, to enable better systems, 

from turbines to wind farms,” said Pao. 

In Pao’s research on control of wind turbines, 

she is particularly interested in wind forecasts 

and measurements that are more comprehensive and updated more quickly than is 

currently possible. The engineer has played 

a leading role in the Colorado Renewable 

Energy Collaboratory’s Center for Research 

and Education in Wind (CREW), involving 

CU-Boulder, NREL, Colorado State Univer- sity, the Colorado School of Mines, as well as 

NCAR and NOAA.

Other NOAA laboratories, from the Atlantic 

Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory to the Pacific Marine Environmental 

Laboratory, have data and research expertise 

relevant to wave energy, ocean currents, and 

other forms of renewable energy, Wilczak 

said. “Our vision is for all of NOAA to be 

involved.”

www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/events/seas/
8

Earth System Research Laboratory

325 Broadway

Boulder, CO 80305

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

ESRL Quarterly editor: Katy Human 

Photographer/Photo Editor: Will von Dauster

Contributors: Anatta, Debra Dailey-Fisher, 

Barb DeLuisi, Christine Ennis, Carol 

Knight, Annie Reiser

Contact: katy.g.human@noaa.gov

www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/quarterly

ESRL Leadership

Alexander MacDonald

Director

John Schneider

Deputy Director, Research

Donald Mock

Deputy Director, Administration

A. Ravishankara

Chemical Sciences Division Director

James Butler

Global Monitoring Division Director

Steven Koch

Global Systems Division Director

William Neff 

Physical Sciences Division Director

Acronyms

ESRL: Earth System Research Laboratory

CCGG: Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Gases group 

of GMD

CIRES: Cooperative Institute for Research in 

Environmental Sciences

CSD: ESRL Chemical Sciences Division

DO: ESRL Director’s Office 

GMD: ESRL Global Monitoring Division

GSD: ESRL Global Systems Division

NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

NWS: National Weather Service

PSD: ESRL Physical Sciences Division

WFO: Weather Forecast Office

At NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, we observe, understand and predict the Earth system through research 

that advances NOAA’s environmental information and services from minutes to millennia on global to local scales. ESRL’s 

partners are the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder, 

and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. 

Climate observatories at Barrow, Alaska and 

Summit, Greenland both lie between 71° and 

73° North, a few hundred miles above the 

Arctic Circle—but the sites are hardly similar 

otherwise.

At NOAA’s Barrow Observatory in Alaska, 

36 feet above sea level, winds sweep across 

the tundra from the ocean, just 2 miles away. 

Summit Observatory in Greenland—run 

by the National Science Foundation and a 

Danish commission—sits in the middle of a 

massive ice sheet at more than 10,000 feet altitude, far from the sea. 

Climate change processes in the vast Arctic 

cannot be understood with data collected 

from just weather stations, said ESRL’s Taneil 

Uttal (ESRL PSD). So a few years ago, she 

began using the organizational mechanisms 

provided by the International Polar Year committee to contact colleagues around the world 

and coordinate activities at the few observatory sites in the Arctic. The result is the International Arctic Systems for Observing the 

Atmosphere (IASOA), which now includes 

10 observatories, from Barrow and Summit 

to Tiksi, Russia and Abisko, Sweden. NOAA 

helps with instruments, staff, or budget contributions at all sites.

“We are filling data 

gaps,” said Uttal, 

who is the network’s “Activity 

Leader.”

In much of the 

Arctic, temperatures are 

rising far faster 

than models 

predicted, and 

ice and permaESRL scientists help build 

global Arctic science network

Arctic Skies Taneil Uttal 

(ESRL 

PSD)

cloud 

physics. 

In some 

cases, NOAA 

has helped other 

countries obtain, install, or operate instruments, Uttal said—ESRL recently sent a cloud radar system to Finland, for example. In the past, such exchanges 

were often difficult and unpredictable, especially when political relationships between 

two countries were tense. Today, Uttal works 

openly with international colleagues, guided 

by intergovernmental agreements on scientific 

cooperation. 

In Tiksi, Russia, the latest site in the IASOA 

network, ESRL teams are partnering with 

Russian colleagues to upgrade a dated but 

venerable research station, with funding from 

the National Science Foundation, NOAA, the 

Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, and the 

government of Yakutia, in the Sakha Republic 

of the Russian Federation. With NSF funding, 

NOAA technical guidance, and Russian construction teams, two new research buildings 

are now taking shape at Tiksi. Instruments 

from U.S. agencies and universities are expected to be installed beginning in the spring 

of 2009. 

www.iasoa.org

frost are thawing. “We need better science on 

the Arctic atmosphere and how it interacts 

with the ocean and cryosphere to understand 

the ‘Why’ behind rising temperatures and 

other trends,” Uttal said. “What’s the role 

of greenhouse gases? Aerosol loads? Cloud 

properties?”

During December’s American Geophysical 

Union meeting, about two dozen scientists 

from around the world presented talks and 

posters based on measurements from IASOA 

observatories. The AGU sessions—a first for 

IASOA—exemplified the data-sharing and 

collaborations that are the network’s hallmarks, said Lisa Darby, ESRL PSD and IASOA 

program manager.

One key question for many Arctic scientists is 

whether or when the region’s warming permafrost will increase releases of the greenhouse 

gas methane, contributing to a feedback cycle 

of further warming and melt. The IASOA observatories will eventually be able to help scientists detect and understand major changes 

in methane flux, said ESRL researcher Ed 

Dlugokencky (GMD). 

John Calder, director of NOAA’s Arctic Research Office, which funds IASOA, said the 

global network is designed to let scientists 

study Arctic changes in greater detail—a 

necessity for improving climate models and 

predictions.

“Barrow Observatory is very nice, but it’s not 

answering every question we need answered,” 

Calder said. Temperatures at Tiksi are rising 

more quickly than anywhere else, for example. 

“We want to get in there and understand why,” 

Calder said. “We need ESRL because within 

NOAA, ESRL is the center of our atmospheric 

expertise. We need the intelligent leadership 

there, to understand what the data mean.”

Each IASOA site supports a suite of sophisticated instruments, from some that measure 

ozone to others that track surface radiation or