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67–183 2011

S. HRG. 112–60 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: APRIL 2011 

HEARING 

BEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 

ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS 

FIRST SESSION 

MAY 6, 2011 

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee 

( 

(II) 

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] 

SENATE 

ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania, 

Chairman 

JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico 

AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota 

JIM WEBB, Virginia 

MARK R. WARNER, Virginia, 

BERNARD SANDERS, Vermont 

JIM DEMINT, South Carolina 

DANIEL COATS, Indiana 

MIKE LEE, Utah 

PAT TOOMEY, Pennsylvania 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

KEVIN BRADY, Texas, Vice Chairman 

MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., Texas 

JOHN CAMPBELL, California 

SEAN P. DUFFY, Wisconsin 

JUSTIN AMASH, Michigan 

MICK MULVANEY, South Carolina 

MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York 

CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York 

LORETTA SANCHEZ, California 

ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland 

WILLIAM E. HANSEN, Executive Director 

ROBERT P. O’QUINN, Republican Staff Director 

(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

OPENING STATEMENT OF MEMBERS

Hon. Robert P. Casey, Jr., Chairman, a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania ......... 1 

Hon. Kevin Brady, Vice Chairman, a U.S. Representative from Texas .............. 3 

Hon. Elijah E. Cummings, a U.S. Representative from Maryland ...................... 5 

Hon. Michael C. Burgess, M.D., a U.S. Representative from Texas ................... 7 

WITNESSES

Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dr. Michael 

Horrigan, Associate Commissioner for Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau 

of Labor Statistics; and Mr. Philip Rones, Deputy Commissioner, Bureau 

of Labor Statistics ................................................................................................ 9 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Chart titled ‘‘Monthly Change in Private Payrolls’’ .............................................. 24 

Chart titled ‘‘An Exceptionally Weak Employment Recovery’’ ............................ 25 

Chart titled ‘‘Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1984’’ ...................... 26 

Prepared statement of Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr. ............................................ 27 

Prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady ............................................ 27 

Prepared statement of Representative Michael C. Burgess, M.D. ...................... 28 

Prepared statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, together with Press Release No. 11–0436 .................................................. 28 

Letter dated May 18, 2011, transmitting Commissioner Hall’s response to 

Representative Burgess ....................................................................................... 68 

Letter dated May 24, 2011, transmitting Commissioner Hall’s response to 

Representative Cummings .................................................................................. 70 

Letter dated May 6, 2011, transmitting questions from Senator Amy Klobuchar to Commissioner Hall .............................................................................. 72 

Letter dated June 1, 2011, transmitting Commissioner Hall’s response to 

Senator Klobuchar ............................................................................................... 73 

(1) 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: APRIL 2011 

FRIDAY, MAY 6, 2011 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. 

The committee met, persuant to call, at 9:31 a.m. in Room 106 

of the Dirksen Senate Office Building, the Honorable Robert P. 

Casey, Jr., Chairman, presiding. 

Senators present: Casey. 

Representatives present: Brady, Burgess, and Cummings. 

Staff present: Will Hansen, Brenda Arredondo, Gail Cohen, Colleen Healy, Andrew Wilson, Jayne McCullough, Ted Boll, and Robert O’Quinn. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., 

CHAIRMAN, A U.S. SENATOR FROM PENNSYLVANIA 

Chairman Casey. The Committee hearing will come to order. I 

want to thank everyone for being here, and I have an opening 

statement I will make and then I will turn to our Vice Chairman, 

Congressman Brady, and any other Members who want to make a 

statement before introducing Commissioner Hall for his statement. 

We are again pleased to have Commissioner Hall and his team 

here with us today. We appreciate your service to the country. We 

have a lot to report on today. Before we get into the numbers for 

this month, I just wanted to add a few words about some of the 

trends we have been seeing over the last couple of months. 

While the labor market is still facing significant challenges, we 

know that unemployment is too high, and overall employment is 

still well below the levels prior to the recession. We have seen some 

real strengthening in the labor market since the spring of 2010. 

More private-sector jobs have been created, and the unemployment 

rate has begun to come down, though it ticked up this month—and 

we will get to that in a moment. 

If we look at the last 14 months, we have now recorded over 

those 14 months private-sector job gains. During that time we have 

added 2.1 million private-sector jobs. Since the beginning of 2011, 

the labor market has also shown resilience in the face of rapidly 

rising oil and gas prices, continued weakness in the housing market, slowing export growth, and winter blizzards that delayed some 

investment and hiring. 

Against these challenges, the trend has been clear. In eight of 

the past nine months the economy has added more than 100,000 

private-sector jobs during each month. In February, March, and 

now April, we have added more than 200,000 private-sector jobs 

2 

each month. And I think that is a very good sign and a very good 

trend. 

We are moving in the right direction. We are benefitting, in my 

judgment, from the actions taken in 2009 and 2010 in dealing with 

this challenge. These actions that we have taken have put us on 

the path to growth, and I am pleased to see some signs of that this 

month as well. 

Today’s employment report provides further evidence that the 

labor market is getting healthier as the economy continues to improve and the recovery continues. 

During April, the economy added 268,000 private-sector jobs. 

Due to the loss of government jobs, overall, the economy added 

244,000 jobs in April. One of the charts behind me clearly shows 

the trend in employment over the past 14 months, a sign that some 

of the work that we have done in the last 14 months or so has 

begun to have an impact. 

[The chart titled ‘‘Monthly Change in Private Payrolls’’ appears 

in the Submissions for the Record on page 24.] 

[The chart titled ‘‘An Exceptionally Weak Employment Recovery’’ 

appears in the Submissions for the Record on page 25.] 

[The chart titled ‘‘Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 

1984’’ appears in the Submissions for the Record on page 26.] 

One sector that has been showing sustained employment growth 

is the manufacturing sector, a key source of good-paying jobs and 

central to our nation’s long-term competitiveness. In April this sector added 29,000 jobs, and since the end of 2009, manufacturing 

has added a quarter of a million jobs. 

In addition, the professional and business sector added 51,000 

jobs, it’s ninth consecutive monthly gain. 

As we know from the news this morning, and we’ll hear more 

about this, in the hearing, the unemployment rate has edged up to 

9.0 from 8.8 in March. While down from its peak of 10.1 percent 

in October of 2009, the unemployment rate remains too high, with 

13.7 million Americans looking for work who cannot find it. 

As Chairman of this Committee, I monitor these unemployment 

numbers for each demographic group to ensure that as the overall 

employment rate continues to drop, the unemployment rate falls 

for every group; but unfortunately that is not the case. 

The unemployment rate for this month for workers with a disability, as one example, workers with a disability, their unemployment rate was 14.5 percent, compared to 15.2 percent a year ago. 

The high rate of unemployment among people with disabilities 

underscores the need for legislation that I and others have worked 

on. I will be reintroducing, along with Congressman Crenshaw 

from Florida, the Achieving A Better Life Experience Act, the socalled A–B–L–E, ABLE Act. In the previous Congress, this legislation had substantial bipartisan support in both Chambers. The 

ABLE Act will give individuals with disabilities and/or their families access to new, highly flexible tax-free savings accounts that 

could be used to help cover a variety of essential expenses for people with disabilities, including employment training and educational expenses. 

3 

In combination with other support, the ABLE Act can help people with disabilities gain new skills and training and strengthen 

their employment prospects. 

Additionally, when we look at particular demographic groups— 

the unemployment rate for veterans was 7.7 percent, which is 

below the overall 9.0 rate. Gulf-Era II veterans, meaning those who 

have served in Iraq and Afghanistan, faced an unemployment rate 

of 10.9 percent. Obviously it is higher than both the overall veteran 

rate and higher than the overall unemployment rate. 

The unemployment rate in the African-American community was 

16.1 percent, well above its prerecession level. That number for African-Americans was as low as 7.7 percent in August of 2007. 

For Hispanic workers, the unemployment rate was 11.8, which is 

much higher than it was in 2007. We have got to examine these 

numbers as well as the overall rate. 

In summary, the unemployment rate shows that we are on the 

right track. The economy is continuing its recovery. The economy 

is stronger than a year ago. More people are working. Fewer are 

unemployed. But we must do more to continue down the path of 

this recovery. 

As the first-quarter GDP data show, the recovery is modest, and 

the recent spike in oil and gas prices and continued weakness in 

the housing market present real challenges. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and others have noted that 

the weather and other transitory factors contributed to the slowdown in the rate of economic growth in the first quarter. While 

they have said that, it is important that Congress tackles issues 

that will protect American workers and families now and in the future. 

I believe we need to stop subsidizing the major oil and gas companies at a time when the price of oil has spiked, and their profits 

have surged. We have this strange situation where they get our tax 

subsidies; they’re getting record profits; and the gas prices for families go through the roof. 

I think we must crack down on the unfair trade practices that 

China engages in on a daily basis, and we need to put our fiscal 

house in order: cutting spending, reducing waste, fraud, and abuse, 

and bringing down the deficit and especially long-term debt. 

The job before us is to build upon the progress to date, creating 

more jobs and bringing the unemployment rate down, and I look 

forward to working with members of the Committee on these and 

other challenges to support the economic recovery. 

And now I would like to turn to our Vice Chairman, Congressman Brady. 

[The prepared statement of Senator Casey appears in the Submissions for the Record on page 27.] 

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. KEVIN BRADY, VICE 

CHAIRMAN, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM TEXAS 

Vice Chairman Brady. Well thank you, Chairman. 

Dr. Hall, we welcome you and your colleagues again this morning. 

During April, initial unemployment claims surged from 385,000 

for the first week to 474,000 for the last week in April. The last 

4 

time that initial claims were this high was October of last year. 

This development is extremely unsettling, as we have been expecting continued improvement in the labor market. 

While the job growth is welcomed, today’s employment report, 

coming on the heels of these troubling initial claims data, is showing some disconcerting signs. Nine percent unemployment and a 

rise in the number of workers who have recently lost their jobs are 

disappointing statistics. We need still faster private sector job creation. Otherwise, millions of U.S. workers will languish in unemployment whether they are counted as such or have dropped out of 

the labor force, and millions more will remain underemployed or 

live in fear of losing their jobs. The Economist recently asked the 

question: ‘‘What’s wrong with America’s economy?’’ In answering 

its question, The Economist pointed to America’s public finances 

and its labor market. Moreover, The Economist stated that the recent decline in the unemployment rate is misleading because it is 

a result of surprisingly small growth in the work force as discouraged workers drop out. The labor force participation rate remains 

at the lowest level in more than a quarter century. 

It is frustrating beyond words to see the excruciatingly slow 

progress in employment growth, especially while President Obama 

pursues policies that obstruct economic activity and job creation. 

The energy industry in America is a prime example. Under this 

Administration, the energy manufacturing and energy services industry is suffering from the de facto drilling moratorium on vast 

offshore areas, a molasses-like permitting process, and threats of 

adverse tax changes that will ship jobs and production overseas. 

We should not be content with pouring over these employment 

numbers month after month and bemoaning the slow progress. Perhaps we can blame it on the weather, or China, or on American energy, but we know what is causing this growth problem. So let’s fix 

it. 

Let me show you again, as I did at last month’s hearing, the payroll job performance during and after this recession, compared with 

that during and after the other two major postwar recessions. This 

chart demonstrates how we are underperforming relative to past 

experience. This is an exceptionally weak recovery. 

There is no excuse for the dismal job performance. You cannot 

explain it by saying the financial crisis caused the severe recession 

but then fail to encourage private-sector growth by every means 

possible. Why does the President have an obsession with raising 

taxes? Why does he persist with his ‘‘green jobs’’ mantra when the 

one percent of our energy sector for which wind and solar account 

clearly cannot revive America’s job market? Americans are demanding real solutions. 

JEC Republicans released one paper in the summer and another 

in the fall of last year that warned treating the BP Gulf oil spill 

as simply an environmental disaster would be a mistake. 

By the time the second paper came out in October, the price of 

crude oil had just risen above $80 per barrel. These papers explained the importance of continued exploration and development 

in the fastest growth areas for oil production in the country to help 

counteract future oil price volatility. 

5 

In 2010, the United States was the largest source of oil supply 

growth outside of OPEC on the strength of offshore production. But 

this year, the Energy Information Administration expects federal 

Gulf of Mexico oil production to fall by 240,000 barrels each and 

every day. 

Energy consulting firm Wood McKinsey estimates a drop of 

375,000 barrels per day in 2011 oil production because new development wells could not be brought online. If those barrels are imported, how does that help stabilize oil prices? How does that help 

our economy? How does that help our job seekers? The price of oil is now $100 per barrel, while the average price of gasoline nationwide is just shy of $4 per gallon. 

The private sector is boosting labor productivity. First-quarter 

productivity was up by 1.6 percent. However, businesses also are 

sitting on $2 trillion of cash that they will not invest because of 

regulatory uncertainty and fear of higher taxes and inflation. 

Therefore, businesses are not creating the jobs necessary to reemploy more people and increase the Nation’s output sufficiently to 

generate enough tax revenue to support those who are sick, retired, 

or remain unemployed. The annual rate of real GDP growth slowed 

to 1.8 percent in the first quarter. 

President Obama has put the Federal Reserve in a position 

where it feels compelled to hold the federal funds rate at zero and 

buy hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Treasury Bonds. 

The Joint Economic Committee Republicans just released a paper 

on that subject as well entitled, ‘‘Too Lose for Too Long.’’ The Federal Reserve is taking a great risk with inflation that would not be 

necessary if the other levers of the private economy that the government can impact were set to ‘‘go.’’ 

Dr. Hall, I look forward to your testimony. 

[The prepared statement of Representative Brady appears in the 

Submissions for the Record on page 27.] 

Chairman Casey. Thank you. 

Congressman Cummings. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, A U.S. 

REPRESENTATIVE FROM MARYLAND 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, and I want to thank you for calling this hearing today to enable us to examine the current state of employment in our Nation. 

I also thank our witness, Dr. Hall, for appearing before us today 

and for following up with my office regarding my questions from 

last month’s hearing. 

We learn from today’s report, Mr. Chairman, that in April the 

private sector added 268,000 jobs, resulting in an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 244,000 jobs. 

These numbers are heartening because they follow 13 consecutive months of positive job creation. In fact, 1.8 million new jobs 

have been created since February 2010. 

When contrasted to an earlier period, January 2008 through February 2010, a period during which our economy shed 8.8 million 

jobs, it is clear that we have averted a disaster. Nonetheless, other 

indicators clearly show that we must continue to make job growth 

our top economic policy priority. 

6 

We learned yesterday that new claims for unemployment unexpectedly rose to an eight-month high of 474,000 applications. There 

are currently 13.7 million Americans who are unemployed. Almost 

a third of these individuals have been unable to find work for more 

than one year. 

One out of every ten Americans without a college diploma cannot 

find work. And one out of every six African American workers remain unemployed. 

Equally worrisome was a report Monday by The Wall Street 

Journal indicating that there are currently 5.5 million long-term 

unemployed Americans who are no longer receiving any unemployment benefits. These are our fellow Americans, and they are fighting for survival. 

On April 18th I held my annual job fair in Baltimore which connects employers with job seekers, and thousands of people attended. I saw first-hand the determination and humility of my constituents who were simply seeking the opportunity to provide for 

themselves and for their families. 

They are resilient, but they need a chance to succeed. That is 

why I commend Congressman Hoyer and my House Democratic colleagues who earlier this week unveiled the continuation of our 

Make It In America Agenda. 

This Agenda consists of numerous bills that will support job creation today and in the future by encouraging investment in innovation, infrastructure, and education right here at home in America. 

Unfortunately, I fear that my friends across the aisle are sacrificing our future in an effort to pay off debts created by tax breaks 

and two wars. 

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz wrote in Politico 

last month, and I quote, ‘‘The ballooning of the deficit has understandably moved deficit reduction back to the center of the debate, 

but the best way to reduce the deficit is to put America back to 

work.’’ End of quote. 

Yet instead of making these critical investments, the House Majority’s budget proposes to slash job-training programs, Head Start, 

and Pell Grants for college students. This week the House Majority 

voted to pass H.R. 1214, which would repeal the section of the Affordable Care Act that funds the construction and improvement of 

school-based health centers. Funding the construction of these centers not only ensures children’s access to these vital and cost-effective services, it creates jobs in one of the hardest-hit sectors of the 

economy: construction. 

The Majority’s proposed cuts—whether it’s the school-based 

health centers, or job training programs—are ostensibly defended 

with the argument that tough times require tough choices and sacrifices. 

Unfortunately, these senseless cuts fail to meaningfully reduce 

the debt and instead threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs and 

the well-being of our fellow Americans. This is not the time for 

symbolism. This is the time for smart choices that will create jobs 

and once again make our Nation the land of opportunity for all 

Americans. 

7 

I urge the House Majority to work across the aisle to find solutions that will reduce the deficit, help the middle class, and put 

Americans back to work. 

Again, Mr. Chairman, I thank you for this hearing, and I yield 

back. 

Chairman Casey. Thank you, Congressman Cummings. 

Congressman Burgess. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., A 

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM TEXAS 

Representative Burgess. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Dr. Hall, Commissioner Hall, always good to see you. Always 

good to start the month off with Commissioner Hall. 

I do want to talk about why the U.S. economy has not recovered, 

and some of the steps we could take to bring the economy back. I 

would like to actually offer, as an example, the State where Mr. 

Brady lives, and where I live, Texas, as a good example of the direction where we might—should—head. 

The unemployment rate in Texas is 8.1 percent, certainly below 

the national average, certainly much higher than we would like it 

to be in the State of Texas but nevertheless the Texas economy has 

performed better than any other state because of, why? A jobfriendly regulatory regime, no state income taxes, and the fact that 

Texas is a right-to-work state. 

As of March, annual job growth in Texas was 3.6 percent, compared with a U.S. job-rate growth of 2 percent. The Dallas Fed says 

the unemployment rate in Texas would be even lower except for 

the fact that Texas has had a rapid population increase in the last 

10 years, of which we are all aware. 

We also accounted for 14 percent of the United States’ employment growth over the last year. The agreeable weather in Texas, 

better job conditions, are attracting people from all over the country, and people are voting with their feet and moving to the Lone 

Star State. 

Over 200,000 jobs were created in the last year. Other states 

could achieve this growth by duplicating Texas’s job-friendly environment. 

In spite of these statistics, our economy in Texas is not perfect. 

We are concerned about unemployment rates for young people just 

getting out of—beginning their earning years. Unemployment rates 

for minorities are unacceptably high, and the overall unemployment rate is still, as I said, over 8 percent, and that is high for 

Texas. 

But the statistics cited earlier demonstrate that compared to the 

rest of the country something in Texas is working, and perhaps 

Washington and other states could consider a more job-friendly regulatory regime in order to restore those jobs that Mr. Cummings 

says we need in order to recover the economy. 

One sector of the economy on which I would like to focus is the 

housing market. Housing prices have continued to drop, and demand for homes remains low. The housing market, which helps 

drive our economy, is an area that can create job growth and will 

be needed to boost our recovery. 

8 

I would like for Dr. Hall today to discuss the housing market’s 

drag on the economy and how that affects our national growth. 

Another area of concern, already mentioned by other people on 

this dais, is high commodity prices. Consumers across the country 

face higher oil and food prices. If we do not want the economic revival to stall, these prices have to come down. The good news yesterday is that oil prices did come under $100 

a barrel for the first time in a long time. In fact, it was rather a 

significant drop. 

Now what happened yesterday? Oh, the House passed a bill. And 

here we are in the Senate today, and I would just mention to the 

Senate that our bill yesterday to expedite lease sales in the Gulf 

of Mexico, those very leases that have been delayed or cancelled by 

the Administration in the past year, the fact that we are willing 

to expedite those lease sales had a profound effect on those people 

who like to speculate and hedge in the oil market. 

They saw that the Republican House was serious about addressing the issue of the supply of our oil produced within our shores. 

The Administration has harmed offshore exploration in the past 

year. I don’t think there is any question about that. We have seen 

the effect by the price at the pump. 

What will not create jobs is the debt. And the federal debt at $14.3 trillion, the number has grown so large that most people just 

simply cannot comprehend it and have given up even trying. Canada’s debt, to put it in perspective, is about $500 billion, a half a 

trillion dollars. 

The Federal Government must find ways to operate like a normal family. We all hear about cuts that need to be made, and one 

of the first things we probably need to do is cut up the government 

credit card and stop spending. 

The talk in Washington recently has been about cutting spending, and there are cuts that need to be made. But there are other 

things we could be doing here in Congress to cut down on government expenses, which are things like waste, which in turn frees up 

resources for Congress to reduce the deficit and help those Americans who are out of work. 

Let me just comment briefly—and I will submit the rest of my 

comments for the record. Mr. Cummings mentioned H.R. 1214 that 

passed in the House yesterday. This indeed was a bill that would 

take back $100 million, I believe erroneously included as a forwardappropriation, a blank check, if you will, a blank postdated check, 

that was included in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care 

Act. The Affordable Care Act is riddled with this type of policy 

where the Federal Government has written blank checks, 

postdated them, put them in the last, and all of them are overdrawing the American account. 

Yes, this was a relatively small sum of money, $100 million, but 

here’s the deal. This money was for the construction of clinics. The 

money—it said in statute, the money could not be used to hire a 

doctor or a nurse, or anyone else, to provide care in that clinic. 

Well that is crazy. The American people recognize that that is 

crazy. Even the Administration recognized that it was crazy, because this is the only one of the so-called cut bills in the Patient 

Protection and Affordable Care Act where the Administration has 

9 

refused to issue a veto threat as a statement of Administration policy. Even the President was embarrassed by slipping this $100 million into the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. I assume 

it was done over here in the Senate for some reason, as a payoff 

to someone. I don’t—can’t identify who, or how, or why, but that’s 

the way most of these things work. 

But it was appropriate to bring this money back. We are not 

against school-based clinics. We are against the funding of a clinic 

with no provision for funding for staffing that clinic. 

The normal Federal Qualified Health Center statute says we 

won’t build it. You build it; we will help you staff it. This legislation had turned things on its head and it was appropriate to reverse that course. 

I thank the Chairman for his indulgence, and I will yield back 

the balance of my time and submit the balance of my statement for 

the record. 

[The prepared statement of Representative Burgess appears in 

the Submissions for the Record on page 28.] 

Chairman Casey. Thank you very much. 

Dr. Keith Hall is the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the U.S. Department of Labor. The BLS is an independent national statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American 

public, the U.S. Congress, other federal agencies, state and local 

governments, business, and labor. 

Dr. Hall also served as the Chief Economist for the White House 

Council of Economic Advisers for two years under President George 

W. Bush. Prior to that, he was Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Commerce. Dr. Hall also spent 10 years at the U.S. 

International Trade Commission. He received his B.A. from the 

University of Virginia, and his Ph.D. and M.S. degrees from Purdue University. 

Doctor, thanks again for being here. We are grateful to have your 

testimony. 

STATEMENT OF DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF 

LABOR STATISTICS, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR; ACCOMPANIED BY: DR. MICHAEL HORRIGAN, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER FOR PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS, BUREAU OF 

LABOR STATISTICS; AND MR. PHILIP RONES, DEPUTY COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 

Commissioner Hall. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and 

unemployment data that we released this morning. 

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, and 

the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent. Over the last three 

months, payroll employment has risen by an average of 233,000 

compared with an average of 104,000 in the prior 3 months. 

In April, employment increased in several service-providing industries, manufacturing, and mining. Retail trade added 57,000 

jobs in April. This increase followed two months in which retail employment changed little. 

10 

Over the month, job gains occurred in electronics and appliance 

stores, building and garden supply stores, and automobile dealerships. An employment increase in general merchandise stores offset 

a decline of similar size in March. 

Employment in professional and business services rose by 51,000 

in April. Since a low point in September of 2009, employment in 

this industry has increased by 745,000. Several component industries continued to add jobs in April, including management and 

technical consulting services, and computer systems design services. Employment in temporary help services was essentially unchanged in April. 

Employment in leisure and hospitality grew by 46,000 over the 

month and by 151,000 in the last 3 months. Food services and 

drinking places added 27,000 jobs in April and has accounted for 

nearly two-thirds of the gain in leisure and hospitality since January. 

Health care employment continued to increase in April, with job 

growth occurring in ambulatory health care and in hospitals. 

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment rose 

by 29,000 in April. Since December 2009, manufacturing has added 

a quarter of a million jobs. Durable-goods manufacturing has been 

the source of this growth. Over the month, job gains continued in 

machinery, primary metals, and computer and electronic products. 

Employment in mining increased by 11,000 in April following a 

gain of similar magnitude in March. Most of the growth occurred 

in support activities for mining. Since a recent low in October of 

2009, mining employment has risen by 107,000. Elsewhere in the 

goods-producing sector, construction employment was about unchanged over the month. It has shown little movement since early 

2010, after falling sharply during the prior 3 years. 

Employment in state and local government continued to trend 

down in April. Both have been losing jobs since the second half of 

2008. 

Turning now to measures from the Survey of Households, the 

jobless rate edged up from 8.8 to 9.0 percent in April. However, the 

rate was 0.8 percentage point lower than in November of last year. 

In April, there were 13.7 million unemployed persons, little 

changed from the prior month. The number of people unemployed 

for less than 5 weeks increased by 242,000 in April. The number 

jobless for 27 weeks and over declined by 283,000 to 5.8 million. 

Other household indicators showed little or no change over the 

month. The labor force participation rate has been 64.2 percent 

since January. The employment-to-population ratio has changed little at 58.4 percent in April. 

Despite increases in the Household Survey employment since 

late 2009, the ratio has shown little movement. Among the employed, the number of individuals working part time who preferred 

full-time work was little changed at 8.6 million. 

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in 

April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9 percent. 

My colleagues and I would now be glad to answer your questions. 

[The prepared statement of Commissioner Hall, together with 

Press Release No. USDL–11–0622, appears in the Submissions for 

the Record on page 28.] 

11 

Chairman Casey. Doctor, thanks so much. 

I wanted to start with the private sector numbers. Those numbers, fortunately, have been going up the last several months. I 

wanted to ask you, just by way of review, the number for the 

month of April, that we are looking at is an increase of private-sector jobs of 265,000? 

Commissioner Hall. 268,000. 

Chairman Casey. 268,000, I’m sorry. Can you give me the numbers for January, February, and March? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. Well, the last three months it has 

averaged 253,000. 

Chairman Casey. That is the average for the first three months 

of the year? 

Commissioner Hall. The last three months. 

Chairman Casey. The last three months, okay. 

Commissioner Hall. And then the particular months before 

were—yes, total private was 231,000 in March and 261,000 in February. 

Chairman Casey. Okay. And in particular I was just wondering 

if you could comment by way of your analysis on the sectors, the 

particular sectors within the private sector overall. What are the 

sectors you see recovering most rapidly? And where are there still 

areas of weakness? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. The sectors that are showing the 

quickest recovery are professional and business services. We have 

added 584,000 jobs since the labor market trough. Education and 

health has added a little over a half a million jobs. Leisure and 

hospitality has added 290,000 jobs. And manufacturing has added 

244,000 jobs. 

Still struggling are financial activities. That has actually continued to lose jobs. They’ve lost about 42,000 jobs since February of 

2010. And construction has held pretty flat. They’ve dropped about 

9,000 jobs. 

The biggest declining industry has been—it’s not in the private 

sector—has been government. Government has actually dropped 

about 391,000 jobs since June of 2009, since the recession ended. 

Chairman Casey. Since June of 2009. And all those other numbers refer to that same period? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, those are since the labor market 

trough. Those were since February of 2010. I changed times on you 

a little bit there. 

Chairman Casey. Okay. We know that this month the two surveys, the household survey and the payroll survey, show numbers 

that are in conflict. I just wanted to have you review that. 

The payroll survey shows strong growth in overall job creation, 

about 200,000 jobs added. But the household survey shows that 

there were 200,000 fewer workers employed. Is that typical to have 

conflicting stories from those two surveys during a recovery? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. It’s certainly not typical. We often get 

some slightly mixed signals. And the main reason is that they are 

different surveys. So there is some variation between the surveys. 

I do find, though, that over say three months or so they do tend 

to come into alignment, but month by month they sometimes give 

you slightly mixed signals. 

12 

Chairman Casey. Could you just give us 30 seconds on the difference between the two surveys? How they’re compiled, what they 

tell? 

Commissioner Hall. Okay, sure. When we talk about payroll 

jobs, we are actually talking about a very large survey where we 

survey business establishments. We are asking them how many 

people are on your payrolls. 

We are taking advantage of the Unemployment Insurance Program because they look at the Unemployment Insurance records. 

That is a very, very large survey, and it in fact represents about 

4 million people. So that is 4 million out of 130 million payroll jobs. 

So that is what makes that a fairly accurate number. And when 

we say we gained 244,000 jobs, we are looking at that survey. 

With the household survey, that is actually a telephone survey. 

It is a much smaller survey. And it is designed to give you an unemployment rate. It is not designed to give you a number employed. So, for example, when the Household Survey, you said it 

showed a drop of 200,000 jobs? 

Chairman Casey. Right. 

Commissioner Hall. The uncertainty in that is about 400,000 

jobs. So really we are talking about plus-or-minus 400,000 jobs 

when we say ‘‘minus 200.’’ So it is either like we gain 200,000 or 

we dropped 600,000. That is the range. 

Chairman Casey. So it is almost like, I don’t want to create too 

much of a direct analogy, but it is more like a survey; it is more 

like polling, in a sense. You have a margin of error there. 

Commissioner Hall. Right. Yes, that’s right. And it is really designed to give you a focus on the accuracy of the unemployment 

rate itself. So, for example, typically the uncertainty in the unemployment rate is point, two-tenths of a percent. So it is fairly accurate for that, but not so accurate for the levels. 

Chairman Casey. Okay. Just so people are clear what we are 

discussing, the household survey leads to the percentage unemployment rate that we—— 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that’s correct. 

Chairman Casey [continuing]. Pay attention to. 

Thank you very much. Vice Chair Brady. 

Vice Chairman Brady. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Dr. Hall. 

Every month of new job growth is welcome, but this is by any 

measure an exceptionally weak recovery, especially given the trillions of dollars thrown at the economy by the White House and the 

Federal Reserve. And I always note that here we are, after having 

spent all of that federal stimulus money, and we actually have 1.8 

million fewer Americans working than before when all that money 

was spent. 

As to this month, usually a small jump in the unemployment 

rate signals people moving back into the work force, which can be 

a good thing. But the rise in jobless claims and the jump in workers recently laid off are not signs of a healthy economy, or a 

healthy recovery. 

The number of unemployed who lost their jobs recently increased 

by 242,000. This jump comes on the heels of large increases in initial unemployment claims, the 474,000, which we have not seen 

that high since last summer. 

13 

Commissioner, shouldn’t we be watching the statistics very carefully going forward? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say absolutely. The payroll job 

growth is, at least the last three months, has been—is accelerated. 

So that is a good sign. But we have not yet seen some things that 

we would like to see in a strengthening recovery. 

Vice Chairman Brady. Well Initial Job Claims, that was a big 

jump. We have had four weeks in a row of—— 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. 

Vice Chairman Brady. [continuing] Increasing jobless claims. 

That is not expected in a healthy recovery. And those who have 

just lost their jobs recently is large, as well. 

Could these data be pointing to a weakening job market? Because normally we ought to have—it ought to be going in the other 

direction. 

Commissioner Hall. Right. I would say that the number of new 

unemployment claims is in fact a helpful data. And that is a—that 

rise is not a good signal. 

Vice Chairman Brady. Yes. What do you think is happening 

here? 

Commissioner Hall. You know, it is hard to say. 

Vice Chairman Brady. Because the numbers seem to be all 

over the map, frankly. I mean—— 

Commissioner Hall. You know, I think, while focusing on one 

month’s data is important, but I think you need to sort of also look 

back at the trend and sort of see how the trend goes. 

Sometimes maybe at points like this you need to wait and see 

how the data looks over the next month or two to sort of see if that 

has signaled anything. 

Vice Chairman Brady. Yes. Well we have been watching over 

the last two years and seen the recovery much slower than 1981 

and 1982. We have an estimated $2 trillion of capital sitting on the 

sideline; businesses tell us they just are reluctant to invest it in 

new jobs, new equipment, new structures, new buildings, until they 

see more certainty coming out of Washington. 

I did notice—I always appreciate the data you give. I did notice 

that there were increases in leisure and hospitality this last month, 

but that you attributed it in your remarks, two-thirds of it were related to drinking places and food service. So is the bar industry 

doing better these days? And is that a—I’m being facetious, but 

there is a jump in drinking place employment? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that was responsible for most of the 

growth in leisure and hospitality. 

Vice Chairman Brady. I’m teasing. I’m just trying to look for 

the—we are all looking for, I think, the optimistic signs, and we 

see some private-sector job growth that I think seems to be a good 

sign. But the longer term recovery means to get more people into 

the work force, because right now we are at the lowest number of 

workers participating in the economy in a quarter of a century. 

So even as we look at the unemployment rate, look for hopeful 

signs, the truth is very few people are participating. Or at least a 

lot of people are not participating in this work force. Again, troubling signs as we go forward. 

14 

So we will continue to watch these, obviously, month to month, 

but this really is—we are seeing some disconcerting signs. 

I yield back. 

Chairman Casey. Dr. Burgess. 

Representative Burgess. Thank you. 

Dr. Hall, just so I can be sure that I am clear. In your prepared 

testimony you talked about gains in the mining sector. And that includes oil and gas exploration and extraction? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, it does. 

Representative Burgess. And does that include both offshore 

and onshore? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Burgess. Now just looking at the Table A–14 

under the Household data, under that line item of Mining, Quarrying, Gas & Oil Extraction, the unemployment rate a year ago 

was 9.4 percent; April of 2011, 3.5 percent, which gives that one 

of the lowest unemployment rates—in fact, it rivals government 

workers for its low unemployment rate. Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Burgess. Is there a way—I guess what is confusing me is, on your prepared testimony you said employment in 

mining increased 11,000 in April. And I assume we’re talking about 

oil and gas exploration and extraction in that 11,000? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that’s part of it. Yes. 

Representative Burgess. But of course we also know that because of federal policies we have put a lot of pressure on the actual 

mining/mining, like coal mining. So do those two things tend to offset each other? 

Commissioner Hall. Actually, this particular month both oil 

and gas extraction and mining, except oil and gas, added jobs this 

month. Oil and gas added about 2,000 jobs. Mining, except oil and 

gas, added about 2—did I say million? 2,000. Mining, except oil and 

gas, added about 2,700. 

Representative Burgess. Let me ask you this: Do we know 

what is the total universe of people that are employed in these industries? 

Commissioner Hall. Well mining together is about 720,000 people. 

Representative Burgess. But that includes offshore and onshore, exploration and extraction? 

Commissioner Hall. Right. Oil and gas extraction is about 

170,000, and mining otherwise is about 210,000. 

Representative Burgess. On the previous table, A–13, construction and extraction occupations are lumped together. This is 

the employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Burgess. Can we break those out for which— 

because obviously construction, I mean when I look at Table A–14, 

the unemployment rate for construction in April of this year is 17.8 

percent, almost 18 percent. So that is one of the highest—well, that 

is the highest unemployment rate in the current jobs report, is in 

the construction industry. And yet at Table A–13, it’s construction 

and extraction are added together. So like the total employed in 

15 

April of 2011 is 7,042, but we already know that the greatest number, the greatest unemployment—the highest unemployment rate 

is in the construction industry. So how am I to interpret that? How 

am I to break that down? 

Commissioner Hall. Umm—— 

Representative Burgess. If I am looking sort of like for the 

total universe of people—— 

Commissioner Hall. Right. 

Representative Burgess [continuing]. On which these construction numbers and the mining numbers are based? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. Well we do not have it in this release, but we can probably break this out a bit finer for you, if you 

would like. 

Representative Burgess. Well I think that would be helpful. 

[Letter dated May 18, 2011, transmitting Commissioner Hall’s 

response to Representative Burgess appears in the Submissions for 

the Record on page 68.] 

Representative Burgess. I mean we, on the policy making side, 

I mean you heard some of it referenced this morning where some 

people are talking about significantly increasing taxes on the oil 

and gas industry. I don’t know, maybe that is necessary, maybe it 

is not. We do seem to give a lot away to the so-called green jobs’ 

sector. 

Now where are the green jobs on this? 

Commissioner Hall. At the moment, the green—well, first of 

all, it depends on how you define ‘‘green jobs.’’ 

Representative Burgess. I don’t know how to define it. I just 

hear people talking about green jobs. I am leaving that up to you 

all, the smart people. 

Commissioner Hall. Well, we are working on a project where 

we will at some point be measuring green jobs. But the big issue 

for us is pulling the green jobs out of the industries because there 

are industries that specialize in green products that are sort of 

spread out throughout. And the big challenge for us is separating 

them from the rest of the industries. 

Representative Burgess. Right. And of course these are industries that receive huge subsidies, huge subsidies in the stimulus 

bill and various other things that we have done, the cash for caulkers, and various things that we have done—I say ‘‘we’’ 

euphemistically; I didn’t vote for them and I don’t think Mr. Brady 

voted for them—but things that Congress has done in the last two 

years. 

Do we get any—is there any way for us to get a sense of what 

our return-on-investment has been for those big, what people call 

‘‘green jobs’’ and other people call ‘‘green pork’’? Is there any way 

to get an idea of the return-on-investment there? We are talking 

about raising the ante on the extraction and exploration and drilling sector, and again, I don’t know, maybe that’s a good thing. Let’s 

see some data on that. 

But we also ought to be supplied some return-on-investment data 

for what has happened with the federal plus-up of these other industries. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, I certainly think that with the data 

as it is now, one might be able to get into that and see how some 

16 

of these industries have done to get some feel for that. That is not 

something that we would normally do. But our data probably would 

educate you somewhat on that as it is right now. 

Once we get our green jobs project sort of done where we’re pulling out the green jobs, you will probably get a better idea of that, 

but that is a ways off. 

Representative Burgess. When could we expect that? 

Commissioner Hall. We are actually going to start collecting 

data next year on it. And so the problem is going to be of course, 

once you start collecting data you do not know the baseline. You 

don’t know—but we will have some idea I think starting next year 

with the number of people employed in these industries. 

Representative Burgess. Well that is Heisenberg’s Uncertainty 

Principle, the mere fact that you’re looking at something means 

you can’t be certain? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, as I say, we have worked hard on 

getting a definition that makes sense. 

Representative Burgess. Very well. Well I will look forward to 

that. And again, I think it would be so helpful for us on the policy 

making side, because we are going to be asked some big questions. 

It will be great to know what the return-on-investment has been 

for the federal investment in this type of activity. 

I’m not complaining about it. Texas has a great number of wind 

farms that we did not have 20 years ago, and surely there has been 

some effect. But it would be nice to know what kind of return-oninvestment do we get for making those expenditures. 

Thank you. I’ll yield back, Mr. Chairman. 

Chairman Casey. Thank you. 

Congressman Cummings. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you, Dr. Hall. 

As you know, the Treasury Department has reported that the 

United States is expected to hit its debt ceiling on May 16th. Congressional Quarterly has reported that, in anticipation of hitting 

the debt ceiling, today Treasury will stop issuing state and local 

government series Treasury securities which help state and local 

governments fund infrastructure and other projects. 

I find this deeply concerning because we are already seeing layoffs taking place at the state and local level. If I remember correctly, you said that we have had a significant decrease in government jobs? Is that right? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Representative Cummings. Dr. Hall, can you give us further 

detail for the Committee on the current job situation throughout 

the state and local governments across the country? And can you 

offer any predictions regarding the impact that that Treasury action may have on the state and local governments’ employment levels? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. In terms of government employment, 

the government job loss has been centered primarily in local government jobs. So, for example, local government, since the end of 

the Recession, has continued to lose jobs, something on the order 

of 370,000 jobs, which is a pretty high number. And that has been 

the bulk of the government job loss since the end of the Recession, 

17 

which has lost 391,000. So that is not an insignificant number of 

employees. 

Representative Cummings. And would your research go into 

whether women are disproportionately affected when it comes to 

those government jobs? In other words, is it a high number of 

women who are employed by government? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. I don’t have it in front of me, but I 

think we should be able to get you some idea of that. I would think, 

especially in the local government. 

[Letter dated May 24, 2011, transmitting Commissioner Hall’s 

response to Representative Cummings appears in the Submissions 

for the Record on page 70.] 

Representative Cummings. I notice that the African American 

workers’ unemployment rate increased. Is that right? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, it did. 

Representative Cummings. What were those figures? 

Commissioner Hall. The African American unemployment rate 

went from 15.5 percent to 16.1 percent this month. So it was an 

increase of about 6/10ths of a percent. 

Representative Cummings. Do you consider that significant? 

Commissioner Hall. It is not statistically significant. It is not 

a really large sample, so statistical significance is probably somewhere around 1.0 percentage point. 

Representative Cummings. You know, when you were answering I think it was one of Congressman Brady’s questions, you were 

saying that we have to—and you have said this in the past—that 

we cannot take just one snapshot of a month, but we have to look 

at a trend in where we are. 

So how do you see this month’s numbers fitting into the trend? 

And do you see—do you have—does anything here cause you to 

have any significant concerns that we may be going in the wrong 

direction? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say in terms of trends, let me just 

say that the news that jumps out the most to me is that we now 

have three months of payroll job growth, well above 200,000 jobs, 

about a quarter of a million a month in private sector. 

Representative Cummings. Is that significant? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that is significant. And I also think 

it is important in that you need about, over a long time period, you 

need about 130,000 jobs a month to employ new people entering 

the job market, the growth in the population, growth in the labor 

force. 

So we are now getting well above the 130,000 per month jobs you 

need. So this last three months looks like it has been an acceleration of the job growth. 

Representative Cummings. Now we are about to have many 

of our young people graduating from college. How do you see that 

impacting? In other words, when we have this month of May and 

June where people are coming out of high school, coming out of college, looking for jobs, how does that affect your numbers during 

that course? In other words, is there a big bump-up in demand, so 

therefore that affects the numbers? 

And what has been the trend, I guess, I am asking you? 

18 

Commissioner Hall. You know, I think one of the things that 

has been most concerning say over the past year has been the labor 

force has not grown very much. The labor force has been very flat, 

which means we have not had the normal entry into the labor force 

on net that we normally get. 

Representative Cummings. And some of those people are, I 

guess, some of those young people are staying in school longer? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that’s right. 

Representative Cummings. And then we are losing some people that have just stopped looking for work? Is that it? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s right. That’s right. I would consider 

it to be another phase of the recovery when we start to get an increase in the labor force, when people start to get optimistic 

enough that they start to re-enter the labor force and start to get 

some growth. 

It has been concerning that we have not seen much growth in 

the labor force yet. 

Representative Cummings. And my two questions that I always ask you: If the President were to ask you, Commissioner Hall, 

where do we go from here? What does it look like? What would you 

say to the President? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say, the good news from this report is what appears to be an acceleration in the payroll job 

growth. It was a little bit of a mixed signal, because we did have 

the unemployment rate tick up a little bit. And I think kind of 

what I just mentioned, I think the thing that we would look forward to, hopefully we’d like to see going forward, is this payroll job 

growth to continue and maybe accelerate and give us enough confidence that we actually see the labor force start to grow. I think 

that would be, like I said, I think that would be sort of the next 

phase in the recovery. 

Representative Cummings. And my other question that I always ask you is, if there are people watching this and they are trying to find a job, what advice would you give them based on geography, areas of growth, people who may be trying to go back to 

school to retrain, based on what we have here, what would you tell 

them? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, you know, obviously I wouldn’t guide 

myself by a monthly report because this changes over time. 

Representative Cummings. Well let’s just talk about trends, 

just about the trends that you see. 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. Well, you know, the trends are that 

we are continuing to see growth in the service-providing sector in 

particular. That sector historically has been a little more recession 

proof than other sectors. 

This recession has been deep enough and bad enough that it 

really has lost jobs, but, as a general rule, that sector does better 

than other sectors. 

And, you know, within that there are lots of occupations that are 

likely to have strong growth over the next 10 years or so. 

Representative Cummings. Like health? 

Commissioner Hall. Like health care. Everything from health 

care, to financial examiners, to computer software engineers. A 

number of things like that. 

19 

Representative Cummings. All right. Thank you very much, 

Mr. Chairman. 

Chairman Casey. We will move to a second round, Doctor. I 

wanted to go through this chart for a second. 

What is striking about this chart is that it depicts private payrolls starting with the month of January of 2008, and it goes 

through this report that we are looking at now, April of 2011. What 

is stunning about that chart, obviously, is you have got, over the 

course of the last year, the month-by-month number, the last year 

of one Administration into the next Administration, but for a long, 

long period of time you have negative numbers on private-sector 

job growth. 

I want to make sure I am reading this right—when we go into 

positive territory, it is what month? 

Commissioner Hall. I believe it was March. 

Chairman Casey. March of? 

Commissioner Hall. March of 2010. 

Chairman Casey. 2010, okay. Is there any way that you can— 

I don’t know if you have this number—calculate it, or if you could 

get it to us, the number of total growth, the total private sector job 

growth from that date in March of 2010 through April of 2011? You 

may have already given that number, but I’m not sure where. 

Commissioner Hall. Two million ninety thousand. 

Chairman Casey. So 2,090,000 private-sector jobs created since 

March of 2010 through this month? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Chairman Casey. Okay. I thought that was significant. And I 

never thought of it in terms of all that, over that amount of time. 

The other thing I wanted to look at was the long-term unemployed number. If you can provide any kind of, for lack of a better 

word, characteristics of those who were long-term unemployed? I 

am just reading from the first page of your official report here. 

The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks 

or over, declined by 283,000 to 5.8 million. Now, 5.8 million is a 

huge number. I guess I would ask two questions, the one I just referred to, the characteristics or common denominator in terms of 

what type of work or what challenges they face. That is question 

one. 

Question two is: Is there any significance to that decline of 

283,000? Or is that more of a standard number we have been seeing? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. Well first of all, the very large number of long-term unemployed, the rise has been very broad. So almost all demographic groups and almost all industries have had a 

big rise of long-term unemployed. But there is some overrepresentation in that. 

For example, for those with less than a high school diploma, they 

are very much overrepresented in that. In fact, the unemployment 

rate is like 6.9 percent of just the long-term unemployed for those 

without a high school diploma. Those who were either never married, or widowed, divorced, or separated, they are overrepresented 

in the long-term unemployed. 

And then industries, construction stands out as having a very 

large—larger than expected—share of the long-term unemployed. 

20 

That number going down a little bit is not uncommon, but the 

thing that is tricky about that is people can drop out of being longterm unemployed by just leaving the labor force, or by getting a 

job. And the way it is looking right now, two people leave labor 

force for every one that gets a job out of the long-term unemployed 

for 27 weeks or longer. So it isn’t necessarily good news to see that 

go down. 

Chairman Casey. So one of the most compelling pieces of data 

you just cited refers to education levels. So in other words, if you 

have got a high school diploma or less, you are—I am just trying 

to put a number on that in terms of the likelihood of you being not 

just unemployed but being part of the long-term unemployed. 

Commissioner Hall. You are probably—you are over three 

times more likely to be long-term unemployed than someone with 

a college degree. 

Chairman Casey. Thank you. 

Dr. Burgess, do you have any more? 

Representative Burgess. Thank you. 

Dr. Hall, if I correctly interpreted your answer to Mr. 

Cummings’s questions about geographically and with which sector 

of the economy if someone was really serious about getting a job 

right now, they would move to Texas and practice medicine. Is that 

right? 

Commissioner Hall. If you have that option, it is not a bad one. 

Representative Burgess. Well, look. Let me ask you another 

question. We deal here with nonfarm payrolls, is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Burgess. But there is going to be an effect 

from what is happening in the central part of this country. It kind 

of gets obscured in the headlines of all the other news, but there 

is a huge issue with flooding of the farmland of the central part 

of the United States, more to the Mississippi River. 

Do you have an idea as to how that is going to affect things? Because we see Missouri, and Arkansas, Memphis, Tennessee they 

said water is up to the sidewalks. What sort of effect is that going 

to have? Or is that just built into, sort of baked into the process, 

baked into the cake where we can have a tough agricultural year? 

Commissioner Hall. Well first of all, we do not collect data on 

farm employment. The Department of Agriculture does, though, I 

believe. And they pay a fair amount of attention to data on employment in farming. So I am probably not the right one to ask. 

Representative Burgess. But if those jobs are not there during 

the growing season, and they certainly may not be if the fields are 

under water, then that will push people into looking for work in 

other sectors. Is that correct? There is bound to be a ripple effect, 

no pun intended, into other parts of the job market? Is that not correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. In fact, what would happen is it 

would not—probably not show up in our payroll jobs numbers, but 

it could well show up in our unemployment numbers. Because they 

are two different surveys, and the coverage is slightly different. 

With the unemployment rate, we are making phone calls so we will 

catch some of those jobs with the phone calls. But with the payroll 

21 

jobs, we’re only talking to nonfarm establishments that pay payroll 

taxes, basically. 

Representative Burgess. Well again it is an enormous tragedy 

and story that is sort of not—below the radar screen for most 

Americans. I am told by people who live there that it is a flood of 

the proportions of 1927–1928 when fully one percent of the usable 

housing stock of the United States of America ended up under 

water. I mean, it is a similar sort of circumstance today. 

So I cannot help but feel it is going to have a profound effect on 

whatever fragile recovery we are experiencing now. This is going 

to take a toll. 

Do you have a sense as to how the actual size of the labor force 

itself, the behavior of that during what has been this very prolonged recession? I mean, it seems like the number of sort of the 

total size of the labor force is smaller today than what we used to 

talk about. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that is right. The labor force participation rate gives you some idea of that, and the labor force participation rate is at a very low level. So I think the statistics that were 

up there a minute ago, it is the lowest level since the 1980s at 

some point. 

So that is a concern. 

Representative Burgess. And we talk about all the trouble we 

are having grappling with deficits and what have you, and we need 

to get people back into the work force and paying taxes, but I mean 

it is just going to be harder to do that, isn’t it? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Burgess. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will 

yield back the balance of my time. 

Chairman Casey. Thank you, Doctor. 

Commissioner, we are going to let you go in a moment. I had one 

question I meant to ask earlier with regard to Japan and any impact that their current situation is having on our economy. 

I know it is not an easy question to answer, but with both a tsunami and an earthquake, whether or not there is an impact? I 

guess there is some speculation, that there could be an impact— 

maybe on our manufacturing. 

I was told that yesterday’s unemployment insurance claims data 

showed that 1,700 employees filed claims after being laid off from 

auto manufacturers in Ohio. Any data that suggests that that could 

be related to what is happening in Japan? 

And then, secondarily, more broadly, is there any data that indicates a broader impact from what has happened in Japan? 

Commissioner Hall. As I understand it, there have been some 

very short-term plant closings related to this, like one day, et 

cetera. And since the workers were employed most of the time, just 

having like a one-day plant closing, it doesn’t show up as a payroll 

job lost. It will lower our hours worked a little bit, but not really 

affect the payroll jobs. 

My expectation would be, if it is going to have an impact on the 

payroll jobs in particular, that would likely start next month. And 

we will see what we can see in the employment numbers in the 

automobile plants next month, and see if maybe there is an effect 

from that. 

22 

Chairman Casey. Okay. Dr. Hall, Dr. Horrigan, Mr. Rones, we 

are grateful to have you here again, and this hearing is adjourned. 

[Whereupon, at 10:38 a.m., Friday, May 6, 2011, the hearing of 

the Joint Economic Committee was adjourned.] 

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SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD 

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PREPARED STATEMENT OF ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., CHAIRMAN, JOINT ECONOMIC

COMMITTEE

Washington, DC—U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), Chairman of the U.S. Congress 

Joint Economic Committee (JEC), released the following statement on the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics’ April jobs report showing that the unemployment rate edged up 

to 9.0 percent and 244,000 total nonfarm jobs were added: 

‘‘April was another solid month of job creation. In the past three months, we’ve 

averaged more than 250,000 new private sector jobs each month. The recent job creation is a sign that policies put into place during the last Congress to spur hiring 

and strengthen small businesses are gaining traction. 

‘‘It was encouraging to see that the economy added jobs across nearly all sectors 

of the economy. Manufacturing, which is especially important to the nation’s competitive position, gained 29,000 jobs this month, and professional and business services has now added jobs for nine months in a row. The breadth of the job gains 

shows that the recovery is strengthening, but clearly there is more to be done. 

‘‘Additional progress reducing unemployment is critical to the 13.7 million Americans who are looking for work, but can’t find it, and who are struggling to make 

ends meet. With so many people unemployed, the economy is still operating below 

capacity and is not benefitting from the skills and labor of those who are currently 

jobless. Congress needs to continue to support the private sector in creating jobs and 

driving new innovations that will boost future economic growth.’’ 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN BRADY, VICE CHAIRMAN, JOINT

ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

Dr. Hall, we welcome you and your colleagues again this morning. 

During April, initial unemployment claims surged from 385,000 for the week ending April 2nd to 474,000 for the week ending April 30th. The last time that initial 

claims were this high was October 9, 2010. This development is extremely unsettling, as we have been expecting continued improvement in the labor market. 

While the job growth is welcomed, today’s employment report, coming on the heels 

of those troubling initial claims data, is showing some disconcerting signs. Nine percent unemployment and a rise in the number of workers who have recently lost 

their jobs, i.e., within the last five weeks, are disappointing statistics. We need still 

faster private sector job creation. Otherwise, millions of U.S. workers will languish 

in unemployment, whether they are counted as such or have dropped out of the 

labor force, and millions more will remain underemployed or live in fear of losing 

their jobs. 

The Economist asked the question, ‘‘What’s wrong with America’s economy?’’ In 

answering its question, the Economist pointed to America’s public finances and its 

labor market. Moreover, the Economist stated that the recent decline in the unemployment rate is misleading because it is the result of surprisingly small growth in 

the workforce as discouraged workers drop out. The labor force participation rate 

remains at the lowest level in more than a quarter century. 

It is frustrating beyond words to see the excruciatingly slow progress in employment growth, especially while President Obama pursues policies that obstruct economic activity and job creation. The energy industry is a prime example. Under this 

Administration, the energy industry is suffering from de facto drilling moratoria on 

vast offshore areas, a molasses-like permitting process, and threats of adverse tax 

changes. 

We should be content with pouring over these employment numbers month after 

month and bemoaning the slow progress. We know what is causing this growth 

problem, so let’s fix it. 

Let me show you again, as I did at last month’s hearing, the payroll job performance during and after this recession compared with that during and after the other 

two major postwar recessions. This chart demonstrates how we are underperforming 

relative to past experience. 

There is no excuse for this dismal job performance. You cannot explain it by saying that financial crises cause severe recessions, but then fail to encourage private 

sector growth by every means possible. Why does President Obama have an obsession with raising taxes? Why does he persist with his ‘‘green jobs’’ mantra? The one 

percent of our energy sector for which wind and solar account clearly cannot revive 

our job market. Americans are demanding real solutions. 

JEC Republicans released one paper in the summer and another in the fall of last 

year that warned treating the BP Gulf oil spill as simply an environmental disaster 

would be a mistake. By the time the second paper came out in October, the price 

of crude oil had just risen above $80 per barrel. These papers explained the imporVerDate Nov 24 2008 11:54 Aug 16, 2011 Jkt 067183 PO 00000 Frm 00031 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6621 C:\DOCS\67183.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
28 

tance of continued exploration and development in the fastest growth areas for oil 

production in the country to help counteract future oil price volatility. 

In 2010, the United States was the largest source of oil supply growth outside of 

OPEC on the strength of offshore production. But this year, the Energy Information 

Administration expects federal Gulf of Mexico oil production to fall by 240,000 barrels per day. Energy consulting firm Wood McKinsey estimates a drop of about 

375,000 barrels per day in 2011 oil production because new development wells could 

not be brought on-line. If those barrels are imported, how does that help to stabilize 

the oil price? How does that help our economy? How does that help our job seekers? 

The price of oil is now $100 per barrel, while the average price of gasoline nationwide is just shy of $4 per gallon. 

The private sector is boosting labor productivity—first quarter productivity was 

up by 1.6%. However, businesses also are sitting on $2 trillion of cash that they 

won’t invest because of regulatory uncertainty and fear of higher taxes and inflation. Therefore, businesses are not creating the jobs necessary to reemploy more 

people and increase the nation’s output sufficiently to generate enough tax revenue 

to support those who are sick, retired, or remain unemployed. The annual rate of 

real GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in the first quarter. 

President Obama has put the Federal Reserve in a position where it feels compelled to hold the federal funds rate at zero and buy hundreds of billions of dollars’ 

worth of Treasury bonds. The JEC Republicans just released a paper on that subject 

as well, ‘‘Too Loose for Too Long.’’ The Federal Reserve is taking a great risk with 

inflation that would not be necessary if the other levers of the private economy that 

the government can move were set to ‘‘go.’’ 

Dr. Hall, I look forward to hearing your testimony. 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D. 

A report released in March from the Government Accountability Office stated that 

hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars, could be achieved by reducing improper federal payments, addressing the gap between taxes owed and paid, reducing 

duplicative ethanol policies, and many more. 

These are just a few ways that efficiencies could be achieved. I believe the federal 

government could also achieve greater efficiencies by adopting some of the cost-cutting strategies used by private businesses and certain executive agencies, including 

the U.S. Navy. Lean Six Sigma is a plan that doesn’t focus on cutting jobs but instead concentrates on improving quality, cutting waste, and improving efficiency. 

Government workers serve their customers, American constituents, just like people do in the private sector. With a $14 trillion debt, which will grow by over $1 

trillion this year, and has grown by over $1 trillion for the past two years, our government needs to find efficiencies to lower costs. 

Thank you Mr. Chairman, and I yield back. 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR

STATISTICS

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data 

we released this morning. 

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent. Over the last 3 months, payroll employment has 

risen by an average of 233,000 compared with an average of 104,000 in the prior 

3 months. In April, employment increased in several service-providing industries, 

manufacturing, and mining. 

Retail trade added 57,000 jobs in April. This increase followed 2 months in which 

retail employment changed little. Over the month, job gains occurred in electronics 

and appliance stores, building and garden supply stores, and automobile dealerships. An employment increase in general merchandise stores (+27,000) offset a decline of similar size in March. 

Employment in professional and business services rose by 51,000 in April. Since 

a low point in September 2009, employment in this industry has increased by 

745,000. Several component industries continued to add jobs in April, including 

management and technical consulting services and computer systems design services. Employment in temporary help services was essentially unchanged in April. 

Employment in leisure and hospitality grew by 46,000 over the month and by 

151,000 in the last 3 months. Food services and drinking places added 27,000 jobs 

29 

in April and has accounted for nearly two-thirds of the gain in leisure and hospitality since January. 

Health care employment continued to increase in April (+37,000). Job growth occurred in ambulatory health care and in hospitals. 

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment rose by 29,000 in April. 

Since December 2009, manufacturing has added a quarter of a million jobs. Durable-goods manufacturing has been the source of this growth. Over the month, job 

gains continued in machinery, primary metals, and computer and electronic products. 

Employment in mining increased by 11,000 in April, following a gain of similar 

magnitude in March. Most of the growth occurred in support activities for mining. 

Since a recent low point in October 2009, mining employment has risen by 107,000. 

Elsewhere in the goods-producing sector, construction employment was about unchanged over the month. It has shown little net movement since early 2010, after 

falling sharply during the prior 3 years. 

Employment in state government and local government continued to trend down 

in April. Both have been losing jobs since the second half of 2008. 

Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 

by 3 cents in April to $22.95. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings 

have risen by 1.9 percent. From March 2010 to March 2011, the Consumer Price 

Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 2.7 percent. 

Turning now to measures from the survey of households, the jobless rate edged 

up from 8.8 to 9.0 percent in April. However, the rate was 0.8 percentage point 

lower than in November of last year. In April, there were 13.7 million unemployed 

persons, little changed from the prior month. The number of people unemployed for 

less than 5 weeks increased by 242,000 in April. The number jobless for 27 weeks 

and over declined by 283,000 to 5.8 million. 

Other household indicators showed little or no change over the month. The labor 

force participation rate has been 64.2 percent since January. The employment-population ratio was little changed at 58.4 percent in April. Despite increases in household survey employment since late 2009, the ratio has shown little movement. 

Among the employed, the number of individuals working part time who preferred 

full-time work was little changed at 8.6 million. 

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent. 

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions. 

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