1

Chinese Climate

ESRL hosts Chinese scientists 

working to build a national network 

of greenhouse gas measurements

ESRL Quarterly

Fall 2010

Inside

Director’s Corner 2

By the Numbers: LA Ozone 2

Robbing the West 3

Ozone Hole Persists 6

International Success 7

Sammie for Solomon 7

Model Students 8

Testing the Wind 8

Pointing Fingers 9

Achievement 10

Raindrops... 12

How do you find leaks in a tank of precisely 

measured carbon dioxide? How often 

must instruments be calibrated, to ensure 

accuracy of atmospheric measurements? 

A team of 16 meteorologists from the 

Chinese Meteorological Agency (CMA) 

visited ESRL in September, seeking answers 

to those and dozens of other questions. 

The delegation of scientists is hoping to 

expand CMA’s current network of five sites 

where CO2 and other greenhouse gases are 

measured consistently.

CMA’s Lingxi Zhou, who has worked closely 

with ESRL’s Global Monitoring Division for 

nearly a decade, set up the 10-day visit—the 

“Workshop on High-Accuracy Greenhouse 

Gas Measurements”—for her staff.

“She thought it was important for people at 

these five sites to see what we’re doing, and 

why,” said GMD’s Pieter Tans. 

Tans and his colleagues spent days with 

the Chinese meteorologists, discussing 

greenhouse gas networks from the broadest 

of scales (the density of sites needed to 

address various research or policy questions) 

see page 5 see page 8

Oscillating Clouds

ESRL scientists uncover oscillating 

patterns in clouds; finding has 

implications for climate change

see page 4

Rain clouds within a large cloud field 

respond to signals from other clouds, much 

like chirping crickets or flashing fireflies on 

a summer night, according to a new ESRLled study. Published in Nature in August, 

the finding has significant implications for 

our understanding of climate change.

Graham Feingold (CSD) and his colleagues 

showed for the first time that interactions 

between certain types of neighboring 

clouds can result in synchronized rain 

patterns within a large cloud system. 

“Clouds organize in distinct patterns 

that are fingerprints of myriad physical 

processes,” Feingold explained. 

Visitors to the home of tJet, one of NOAA’s 

most powerful new supercomputers, have 

to yell to be heard over the roar in the 

room. tJet is running simulations of tropical 

cyclones, and it seems as if the computer is 

invoking the sound of the storms. 

But ESRL’s Scott Nahman (Global Systems 

Division, GSD), points to the closet-sized 

air conditioning system that keeps the 

supercomputer in optimum conditions. The 

fans may be loud, but “this is the first highefficiency system in the building,” Nahman 

said. The new unit could save NOAA several 

thousand dollars on electricity next year, he 

estimated. 

That’s just one record among several for 

ESRL’s summertime supercomputing 

upgrades, including the Intel-based 

tJet supercomputer. Installed in early 

August and running hurricane forecast 

experiments by the end of that month, tJet 

is one of the two most powerful research 

supercomputers in NOAA. 

With more than 10,000 new cores, tJet 

is faster and more efficient than its 

predecessor—the 3,500-core Nehalem Jet 

tJet Roars to Life

New ESRL supercomputer supports 

hurricane research, including 

experimental FIM forecasts 

News from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory

Dusty snow robs water from the Colorado River, page 3. Tom Painter/JPL
2

Director’s Corner

“I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now . . .”

The words of a popular song written 

decades ago have relevance to the 

science going on today in ESRL. 

On the front page of this issue is a discussion 

of the August Nature paper by Chemical 

Science Division’s (CSD) Graham Feingold 

and a team that looked at a type of cloud 

field seen over large areas of the globe. In 

the paper, an interesting temporal sequence 

of the cellular structure of cloud fields is 

discussed, as is the role of aerosols within 

them. The role of aerosols in cloud, including 

how they affect planetary albedo (reflection 

of sunlight) has been a fundamental research 

topic for climate scientists. The large areas 

of stratus cloud, particularly prevalent over 

oceans off the west coast of continents, 

play a major role in the Earth’s radiation 

balance. If added greenhouse gases reduce 

the area covered by this type of cloud, that 

would enhance global warming (a positive 

feedback). Conversely, if these cloud fields 

increase, it would slow the rise in global 

temperature. Clouds are important at all 

length and time scales—they are one of the 

best examples of fractals in nature. Thus, 

understanding the emergent behavior of the 

clouds seen in these studies should be helpful 

in improving atmospheric prediction from the 

shortest time scales (weather) to the longest 

(climate). 

There is another interesting body of cloudrelated work in ESRL’s Physical Sciences 

Division (PSD), led by George Kiladis. 

He has used satellite imagery and other 

techniques to look at tropical waves. As a 

graduate student, I recall having to repeat 

the derivation of a very elegant analysis 

of atmospheric waves in the “equatorial 

waveguide,” originally done by Taroh 

Matsuno (and later by Adrian Gill). Kiladis 

and collaborators have used Outgoing 

Longwave Radiation (essentially cloud 

structures observed from satellites) to 

determine the structure of tropical waves, 

and find a whole bestiary of such cloud 

clusters, including Kelvin Waves, eastward 

and westward propagating Rossby waves, 

and inertia-gravity waves. These equatorial 

cloud structures—most notably the 

Madden-Julien Oscsillation (a type of cloud 

cluster that propagates westward along the 

tropical band, taking many weeks to cross 

the Pacific)—offer the exciting potential of 

extending predictions beyond the chaotic 

limits of a few weeks to allow significant 

predictability in the range of a couple of 

months. I regard the over-emphasis of the 

meteorological community on mid-latitude 

meteorology (where most meteorologists 

live) as having limited the progress that we 

could be making in the tropics. For example, 

spectral models are great for mid-latitude 

cyclones, but are poor in the tropical belt for 

several reasons, most notably because their 

resolution is less there than in mid-latitudes. 

This was part of the rationale behind ESRL’s 

development of global models on icosahedral 

grids, and the results in the FIM model have 

shown improved tropical skill. 

Within ESRL’s Global Systems Division 

(GSD), there are important new advances 

in computing and global modeling. In 

computing, Mark Govett and collaborators 

are leading in the next big revolution in 

geophysical supercomputing: using Graphical 

Processing Units (GPUs) to run atmospheric 

models. Govett’s group has demonstrated 

speed-ups greater than 30 times using GPUs 

on the new Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral 

Model (led by Jin Luen Lee of GSD). A 

calculation by Jaques Middelecoff estimates 

that given the growth of GPU speeds, it may 

be possible to run twice-daily 10-day global 

cloud-resolving models (horizontal resolution 

of four kilometers or less) as early as 2012.

Advances in geophysical prediction 

typically follow a sequence: they start 

with observations, followed by scientific 

understanding of the relevant processes, and 

ultimately are incorporated into predictive 

models. Here in ESRL, we can see the entire 

process in action. A dream of mine would be 

that GSD’s new cloud-resolving global models 

would use the advances from CSD and PSD 

to capture clouds realistically in weather and 

climate prediction in a way that is unequaled 

elsewhere in the world.

At ESRL, we look at clouds from all sides now.

—Alexander MacDonald

The distance that ozone and possibly other 

pollutants from the Los Angeles Basin 

can travel due to the “mountain chimney 

effect” of Southern California’s San Gabriel 

Mountains, pictured. At the fall AMS 

Mountain Meteorology Conference, Andy 

Langford and Bob Banta (CSD) discussed 

results from airborne lidar measurements 

of ozone made above the Los Angeles Basin 

in 2009. Their results—also published in 

Geophysical Research Letters with Christoph 

Senff, Raul Alvarez, and Michael Hardesty 

of CSD—indicate that the mountains push 

polluted air up into the free troposphere, 

where it can travel as far as western Colorado. 

More: search for doi:10.1029/2010GL042507. 

By the Numbers 

Los Angeles ozone reaches Colorado 1,000miles
3

Dark-colored dust that settles on snow in 

the Upper Colorado River Basin makes the 

snow melt early and robs the Colorado River 

of about five percent of its water each year, 

says a new study coauthored by ESRL and 

CIRES researchers. This quantity of lost water 

is nearly twice what the city of Las Vegas uses 

in a year, says study coauthor Brad Udall, 

director of the Western Water Assessment 

(WWA), a joint program of CIRES and ESRL.

“By cutting down on dust we could restore 

some of the lost flow, which is critical as the 

Southwestern climate warms,” Udall said. 

Snow dusted with dark particles absorbs a 

greater fraction of the Sun’s rays and melts 

faster than white snow, said coauthor Jeffrey 

Deems of WWA. Earlier snowmelt then 

lets the growing season of snow-covered 

vegetation start earlier and more water is lost 

through evaporation and transpiration, he 

said. That leaves less water for the Colorado 

River, which supplies water to more than 

27 million people in seven states and two 

countries.

Heavy dust coatings on the snowpack are 

a relatively recent phenomenon. Since the 

mid-1800s onwards, human activities, such 

as livestock grazing and road building, have 

disturbed the desert soil and broken up the 

soil crust that curbs wind erosion. Winds then 

whip up the desert dust—from northwest 

New Mexico, northeast Arizona, and southern 

Utah—and drop it on mountains downwind 

that form the river’s headwaters, Deems said. 

“Dust can have an impact even when it’s too 

sparse to notice,” said study leader Thomas 

Painter, a snow hydrologist at NASA’s Jet 

Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA. “But 

it can get to the point where it looks like 

cinnamon toast.”

To evaluate how the dust impacts snowmelt, 

the team used a hydrology model that has 

been shown to accurately simulate snowmelt 

and river flows in the Colorado Basin. The 

researchers modeled the rate of mountain 

snowmelt and volume of runoff at Lees Ferry 

in Arizona for the “lower dust” conditions 

prior to the disturbance of desert soils, and 

for the levels of dust observed between 2003 

and 2008.

Snowmelt in the current dusty conditions 

occurred nearly three weeks earlier than 

in pre-settlement conditions, the results 

showed, and an average of five percent less 

water flowed into the river above Lees Ferry. 

“This is the first time anyone has attempted 

to quantify the impacts of dust on runoff,” 

Udall said.

“This result suggests that if we can change 

our land management practices to reduce 

desert soil disturbance then perhaps we 

can extend the snowmelt season,” Deems 

said. “This might allow more runoff than is 

currently the norm.” Such a runoff boost may 

help offset the river’s projected runoff losses 

due to warming temperatures, and mitigate 

management tensions over the West’s most 

over-committed resource, Udall said.

Dust has settled on snowy mountain ranges 

around the world and although the impacts 

on annual runoff may differ, depending 

on the seasonal rainfall patterns in each 

region, the impacts of dust on snowmelt are 

indisputable, Painter said. “Clean your snow, it 

lasts longer—it is that simple.”

The study is published in the September 

20 issue of the Proceedings of the National 

Academy of Sciences. Coauthors include Jayne 

Belnap of the U.S. Geological Survey in Utah, 

Alan Hamlet of the University of Washington 

and Christopher Landry of the Center for 

Snow and Avalanche Studies in Colorado.

Online video story: http://cires.colorado.edu/

news/press/2010/dustonsnow.html.

—Jane Palmer, CIRES

Robbing the West of Water

New Study: Desert dust reduces Colorado River flow

Studying Snow. Researchers dig snow pits to measure 

characteristics of the snowpack. White snow melts more 

slowly than brown snow. Images courtesy of the Center 

for Snow and Avalanche Studies.
4

...Clouds, from page 1 

“Precipitation can generate fascinating 

honeycomb-like patterns that are clearly 

visible from satellites. Cloud fields organize 

in such a way that their components 

‘communicate’ with one another and 

produce regular, periodic rainfall events.”

The new study also examines how 

suspended particles, or aerosols, in the 

atmosphere can influence cloud and rain 

patterns as well as 

climate change.

The team—which also 

includes Ilan Koren of 

the Weizmann Institute, 

Hailong Wang of the 

Pacific Northwest 

National Laboratory, 

Huiwen Xue of Peking 

University, and Alan 

Brewer of CSD—used 

satellite imagery to 

identify cloud systems with a “cellular, 

almost honeycomb-like structure.” In such 

systems, thick clouds form the walls of the 

honeycomb, and cloud-free zones form 

open cells between the walls. The team 

observed that these cellular structures 

constantly rearrange themselves, with cloud 

walls dissolving and open cells forming in 

their place, while walls form where open 

cells once existed.

The scientists were able to reproduce this 

rearrangement or oscillation of the cloud 

honeycomb pattern in computer models, 

which helped them identify the driving 

factor – rain. Then, they analyzed scanning 

laser measurements from a ship cruising 

under cloud systems to verify the model 

results.

“Together, these analyses demonstrated 

that the rearrangement is a result of 

precipitation, and that clouds belonging 

to this kind of system 

rain almost in unison,” 

Feingold said.

The synchronization 

starts with falling rain, 

which cools the air as it 

descends. This creates 

downward air currents. 

These downdrafts 

hit the surface, flow 

outward, and collide 

with each other, 

forming updrafts. The air flowing up creates 

new clouds in previously open sky, just as 

older clouds dissipate. Then the new clouds 

rain, and the oscillating pattern repeats 

itself.

“Once precipitation ensues and an open 

structure has formed, it is difficult to 

revert the cloud field to a closed-cell, or 

overcast state,” Feingold said. “Rain keeps 

the oscillating, open honeycomb pattern 

in motion, which allows more sun to reach 

Earth’s surface.”

The scientists say that their findings point to 

a significant influence of particulate matter, 

or aerosols, on the large-scale structure of 

clouds and, therefore, on climate change. 

Scientists have long known that aerosols 

can influence local rain formation and block 

solar energy from reaching the Earth’s 

surface—for an overall surface cooling 

effect.

However, until recently, the scientific 

community has not considered the selforganization that results from these effects. 

Computer simulations for this study indicate 

that high aerosol concentrations favor the 

formation of large, dense cloud fields with 

less open space and less rain. This creates a 

more reflective cloud pattern and cooling 

of the surface. Low particulate levels in 

computer models resulted in rain and 

the open honeycomb structure with an 

oscillating pattern. The open honeycomb 

structure in a large cloud field lets more 

sunlight reach the surface, and hence results 

in surface warming.

“Our work also suggests that we should 

expand our thinking about interactions 

between aerosols and clouds,” Feingold 

said. “Integrating our current focus on 

fundamental physical processes with 

broader studies on system dynamics could 

give us a more complete understanding of 

climate change.”

—by Linda Joy, NOAA

Rain is the driving factor behind cloud 

oscillations and 

honeycomb-like patterns.

Top, satellite image of cellular structure in a marine stratus cloud field. 

Below, three images from a computer model animation of factors that lead to open and closed cells. The model reproduced oscillations seen in real clouds. Full animation: http://

www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/news/2010/85_0818.html
5

(nJet) installed in the summer of 2009 and 

already full, said ESRL’s Leslie Hart, the highperformance computing senior software 

engineer for NOAA’s Office of the Chief 

Information Officer. 

“Science is a core vacuum,” Hart said. “We 

needed more resolution for this hurricane 

work.” 

By September, ESRL researchers were using 

tJet’s parallel processors to make detailed 

comparisons of the hurricane forecasting 

prowess of several global forecast models, 

from the operational Global Forecast System 

(GFS) and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to ESRL’s 

experimental FIM (the Flow-following, finitevolume isocahedral model). 

At issue is how closely those models 

forecast the real-world tracks of hurricanes 

and changes in the storms’ intensity, said 

Stan Benjamin, Chief of GSD’s Assimilation 

and Modeling branch. Efforts to improve 

global tropical storm forecasts, he said, are 

reaching in several directions, all enabled 

by tJet: Experiments with higher horizontal 

resolution; ensemble forecasting with 

multiple runs; experiments with new dataassimilation schemes; and inclusion of 

chemistry and aerosols.

ESRL researchers currently conduct a 

15-km FIM run once per day out to 10-

day projection, to examine the effect of 

higher-resolution for tropical cyclone 

forecasts. Last year, when ESRL conducted 

tests of an older version of FIM at 15-km 

resolution, it had to be done on an NSFfunded supercomputer in Texas with 

limited availability. tJet has also accelerated 

experiments to consider the effects of 

inline chemistry in FIM on tropical cyclone 

forecasts.

So far, FIM is performing well, Benjamin 

said, with track and intensity forecasts that 

are about as skillful as those generated by 

the operational GFS—FIM is sometimes 

better, sometimes worse, but with improved 

intensity forecasts in the 15-km FIM. The 

experimental FIM model performs very 

well at predicting high-level winds, he 

said, and perhaps most importantly, FIM 

represents an approach that’s independent 

of other global models. That makes it 

especially useful for forecasters who project 

many possible futures with ensembles 

of independent models. Ensembles let 

forecasters pin probabilities on predictions. 

“FIM and GFS may be equal in overall 

skill, but FIM comes to different solutions,” 

Benjamin said. “So we’re very confident that 

the global ensemble will be better with the 

additional diversity of FIM.” 

FIM is a strong candidate to be added as 

an experimental model to the global multimodel ensemble system at the National 

Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 

in 2012.

ESRL researchers are also using tJet 

to study the impact of various data 

assimilation techniques on hurricane 

forecasts. Assimilation schemes are used to 

incorporate meteorological observations 

into the initial conditions of forecast models. 

Mike Fiorino (GSD) is evaluating the 

performance of two key assimilation 

schemes—the still-experimental Ensemble 

Kalman Filter (EnKF), developed by Jeff 

Whitaker, Tom Hamill, Phil Pegion, and 

others in ESRL’s Physical Sciences Division, 

and the operational NCEP Gridpoint 

Statistical Interpolation—when used with 

FIM. The EnKF is also run on ESRL’s tJet.

“We are getting signals that the EnKF 

improves Eastern Pacific track forecasts,” 

Fiorino said. “This is the kind of result that 

will capture the attention of forecasters...

but it may mean that this season’s set of 

storms happen to be the sort the EnKF/

model handles well.” 

Fiorino said we will need many more 

experimental runs to make firm conclusions 

about the hurricane forecast performance 

of various models and assimilation 

schemes. But already, interesting patterns 

are emerging—such as the fact that FIM 

consistently did better with Eastern Pacific 

storms than those in the Western Pacific 

Ocean. Figuring out why may well help 

his colleagues improve the models and 

assimilation schemes.

It’s quite helpful to have in-house the 

computing power necessary for such 

research, Benjamin said. In the past, he 

and his colleagues had to port FIM code to 

other centers—such as the Texas Advanced 

Computing Center—and wait in queues 

for the processing time required to run a 

forecast at resolution as fine as 15-km scale.

“Now we can do more science and less 

queue management,” Benjamin said. 

tJet also means that he and his colleagues 

can make quick variations to runs, 

depending on recent results, and to test 

high-resolution ensemble forecasts (with 

30+ ensemble members) using FIM and GFS. 

These ESRL-tJet ensemble-based forecasts 

have had particularly high skill for tropical 

cyclone forecasts this fall.

tJet was funded through the 2009 Hurricane 

Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), in 

which NOAA is working with academic and 

private-sector partners to improve scientific 

understanding and prediction of tropical 

storms, hurricane intensity, hurricane 

tracking, and the dangerous storm surges 

associated with tropical storms. 

More on FIM, including output of daily runs: 

http://fim.noaa.gov/.

...FIM Hurricanes, from page 1

Installing tJet. Photo by Will von Dauster, ESRL.
6

Antarctic Ozone Hole Persists, At Least for Awhile

Major success in reducing ozone-depleting substances may not pay off in the Antarctic for several more years

August in Antarctica means the Sun starts 

rising over the horizon again, following four 

months of darkness. For NOAA Corps officer 

Nick Morgan (GMD), stationed at the South 

Pole, the month also marks the moment 

when he begins measuring ozone in earnest. 

For most of the year, Morgan and his 

colleagues launch giant plastic balloons 

into the air about weekly. Tethered to the 

balloons are instruments that take ozone 

readings up to about 18 miles high. 

Then, in the Antarctic spring (August 

through October), sunlight-sparked chemical 

reactions begin eating away at ozone. 

Scientists start making measurements 

more often, and by October, Morgan or 

his colleagues are outside in minus 80°F 

temperatures about every other day. Morgan 

and other scientists around the world are 

watching those data carefully, looking for 

evidence that the Antarctic ozone hole is 

beginning to heal after decades of hurt. 

There’s scant evidence yet, from the balloonborne instrumnets or others on the ground 

and on satellites: At the end of September, 

total ozone was at its annual low of 122 

Dobson units. Typical fall, winter, and 

summertime levels are 250-300 Dobson 

units. The worst-of-the-year ozone levels 

have averaged 108 during the last 24 years.

It will be difficult to establish a clear-cut 

recovery trend in Antarctic ozone levels 

because seasonal cycles and other variable 

natural factors—from the temperature of the 

atmosphere to the stability of atmospheric 

layers—can make ozone levels dip and 

soar from one day to another, says NOAA 

ESRL scientist Bryan Johnson. But the time 

is coming, probably within a few decades, 

when ozone depletion will no longer be 

observed each spring, Johnson said. 

“And within the next decade or so,” Johnson 

says, “observations are anticipated to begin 

showing reduced severity of the ozone hole.” 

As soon as the Sun crosses the horizon 

again during the Antarctic spring, sunlighttriggered chemical reactions involving 

air pollutants begin destroying ozone in 

a region of the atmosphere called the 

stratosphere. The stratospheric ozone 

layer protects Earth from some damaging 

ultraviolet radiation, so an ozone hole means 

more of that radiation can hit the surface and 

trigger elevated rates of skin cancer and crop 

damage.

In the Antarctic, the ingredients for 

ozone depletion line up perfectly around 

September: Sunlight, low temperatures in 

the stratosphere, polar stratospheric clouds 

that help catalyze the destructive chemistry, 

and the continued presence of ozonedepleting chemicals, many of them released 

decades ago. Most years, those conditions 

ease by early December, and the hole closes.

“The ozone hole has taken somewhat of a 

back seat in the public eye,” Morgan wrote in 

a recent blog post from the South Pole. “And 

maybe that is a sign of success.”

Levels of most ozone-depleting substances 

in the atmosphere have declined 

significantly since the 1987 Montreal 

Protocol was signed, he noted. 

That international treaty initiated 

the phasing out of chemicals called 

chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), then used 

widely in refrigeration, as solvents, and in 

aerosol spray cans. The chemicals were 

breaking down in the stratosphere, and 

reactive parts—chlorine and bromine 

atoms—triggered ozone destruction, 

when conditions are ripe (sunlight, polar 

stratospheric clouds, cold temperatures). 

International scientists contributing to 

the quadrennial 2010 Ozone Assessment— including many NOAA scientists—have 

calculated that although global stratospheric 

ozone may recover by midcentury, the ozone 

hole in the Antarctic will likely persist longer. 

More: http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/spo_oz/ 

and http://icestories.exploratorium.edu/

dispatches/south-pole-ozonesonde-launch/ 

(video).

An ozonesonde release in Antarctica, NOAA photos.
7

International 

Environmental 

Success

2010 asessment of ozone layer 

highlights roles of climate change, 

lauds Montreal Protocol

Climate change and the ozone layer are 

intricately coupled, and climate change 

will become increasingly important to the 

future ozone layer as ozone-depleting 

substances diminish in the atmosphere. 

Those are among the key conclusions of the 

2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, 

a state-of-the-science volume produced by 

the United Nations Environment Programme 

and World Meteorological Organization 

every four years. ESRL scientists co-authored 

the report.

The 2010 Ozone Assessment’s executive 

summary, compiled with extensive 

contributions from ESRL and others in 

NOAA, was made public in September. The 

full report will be out early next year. 

Among the conclusions: 

• The Montreal Protocol is working. 

Levels of most major ozone-depleting 

substances have dropped in the last 20 

years, preventing further degradation 

of the ozone layer and preventing many 

cases of skin cancer and crop damage.

• Because some ozone-depleting 

substances are also greenhouse gases, 

this has helped mitigate climate change.

• Ozone in the Antarctic polar region will 

take longer to recover than elsewhere, 

since Antarctic air is more isolated from 

the rest of the globe.

• The Antarctic ozone hole, which forms 

every spring, contributes to changes in 

surface climate, especially in wind and 

temperature patterns.

• Some replacement substances for 

phased-out ozone-depleting chemicals 

are powerful greenhouse gases.

About 300 scientists from around the 

world are contributing to the 2010 Ozone 

Assessment, including 26 from ESRL, 

who served as authors, contributors, 

reviewers, editors, and in other support 

roles. More: http://www.unep.org/PDF/

PressReleases/898_ExecutiveSummary_

EMB.pdf.

Sammie for Solomon Sam Kittner

2009 Ozone-Depleting Gas Index

ESRL updates index to guide and monitor the recovery of the ozone layer

In September, ESRL’s Global Monitoring Division published the annual Ozone Depleting 

Gas Index (ODGI), which is a measure of overall atmospheric abundance of ozonedepleting chemicals called halons. ODGI is defined as 100 at the peak of halon levels (in 

1994), and has been dropping steadily, due to the actions of an international treaty, the 

Montreal Protocol, and its amendments. More: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/odgi/.

In recognition of pioneering work that 

altered the course of atmospheric 

research, ESRL senior scientist Susan 

Solomon (CSD) was awarded the Career 

Achievement Service to America medal 

September 15.

“It’s been a privilege doing science to 

serve the American public, and receiving 

this wonderful award is one of the most 

humbling experiences of my life,” said 

Solomon.

Solomon is the second NOAA scientist 

to win a Samuel J. Heyman Service to 

America Medal, or “Sammie.” In 2008, 

Eddie Bernard, director of NOAA’s Pacific 

Marine Environmental Laboratory in 

Seattle, won for his work in establishing 

an international tsunami detection and 

forecast system.

“At NOAA, I am proud to say that our 

standards for achievement are quite 

high. We have a team of scientists who 

are consistently producing awe-inspiring 

and important work. They provide much 

of the knowledge we need to address 

many of our world’s environmental 

challenges,” said Jane Lubchenco, under 

secretary of commerce for oceans and 

atmosphere and NOAA administrator. 

“But Susan exceeds anyone’s standards. 

The nation has benefited from her three 

decades at NOAA, and we celebrate her 

accomplishments.”

Solomon is best known for her 

groundbreaking work identifying 

the cause of the ozone hole. She 

and her colleagues showed that this 

ozone depletion is caused by unusual 

chemistry involving human-made 

chlorofluorocarbons that occurs under 

the extremely cold conditions of 

Antarctica. Solomon’s work was one of 

the scientific cornerstones on which 

the international Montreal Protocol was 

built, which curbed the use of ozonedestroying substances.

“Science is there to inform, but the 

choices of what to do are up to all of us,” 

Solomon often says, referring to how 

science is used to make an important 

policy decision.

Solomon recently led a key study 

focused on global warming. The research 

demonstrated how changes in surface 

temperature, rainfall, and sea level are 

largely irreversible for more than 1,000 

years after carbon dioxide emissions are 

completely stopped.

In 2002, she was elected cochair of Working Group I of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change that published The Physical 

Science Basis in 2007. The IPCC was a cowinner of the Nobel Peace Prize that year.

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Mid-Latitude

Antarctic

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 
8

For three days this summer, 25 students 

sat at computers at the National Center 

for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), running 

some of the most cutting-edge Earth 

system models around, models usually 

only accessible to experienced scientists. 

The students—from Colorado State 

University’s Center for Multiscale Modeling 

of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) and 

other universities—listened to lectures and 

initiated model runs on a supercomputer. 

One enthusiastic student wrote on the 

workshop evaluation, “I liked getting handson experience with a supercomputing 

facility (a first for me.) I also liked meeting 

people in the field.” 

ESRL scientists from the Global Systems 

Division (GSD), and colleagues from 

Colorado State University, NCAR, NOAA’s 

National Centers for Environmental 

Prediction, and NASA led this first Summer 

School on Atmospheric Modeling (SSAM). 

The goal of the collaboration between those 

partners and NOAA’s Global Interoperability 

Program (at ESRL) was to build the 

professional skills of undergraduate and 

graduate students interested in global 

modeling for weather forecasting. 

“This is the first time we’ve been proactive 

about getting a new modeling system out 

there for graduate students to test and 

use,” said GSD Director Steven Koch. “We’re 

hoping to pull a new generation of young 

scientists into the world of global Earth 

system modeling.”

This summer focused on ESRL’s new global 

Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral 

Model (FIM). Students were required to 

have senior-undergraduate training in 

atmospheric science with a focus on largescale dynamics. Familiarity with numerical 

methods for modeling was recommended. 

The three-day summer school presented 

an overview of FIM, with detail about 

the model’s innovative dynamical core 

and physical parameterizations. Classes 

included discussions on computational 

performance and hands-on experience with 

FIM. The students learned about hybrid 

vertical coordinates, geodesic numerics, 

FIM diagnostics, computational issues, and 

vertical discretization as they evaluated the 

accuracy of summer and winter forecasts. 

Students reported that they appreciated 

training on research-and-development 

systems, especially when their lecturers 

were the very scientists and engineers who 

developed those systems. “I liked most the 

interaction with the scientists who built 

the model and the lectures concerning the 

creation/working of the model,” wrote one 

student. They also liked the open interactions 

among modelers, including lively discussions 

about multiple approaches to solving some 

of the problems they deal with. 

Tom Henderson, a GSD software engineer 

supporting the effort, said that he and his 

colleagues put in many hours over weeks 

to prepare content, graphics, and slides for 

the lectures; to coordinate sessions; to test 

models; and address technical problems. 

“It was a pleasure to see the genuine 

interest of all these NOAA scientists in 

educating the next generation of global 

modelers,” wrote David Randall of CMMAP 

in a letter of appreciation to ESRL Director 

Sandy MacDonald. Randall also thanked 

the behind-the-scenes staff from NCAR for 

“superb support” of SSAM. “Not only did 

SSAM benefit the students tremendously 

as documented by their many favorable 

comments, but presenters benefitted as 

well,” Randall said. “SSAM helped raise the 

profile of FIM, bringing well-deserved credit 

to ESRL and its Global Systems Division.”

Next summer SSAM will be hosted at NOAA’s 

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and 

the focus will be on the AM3 atmospheric 

model. Organizers will incorporate lessons 

learned during this student-modeling 

workshop, such as performing more dry 

runs for hands-on sessions.

But overall, Koch said, this first SSAM was a 

successful attempt to initiate young talent 

into atmospheric science. 

—by Annie Reiser

Model Students

ESRL scientists help lead summer school in Earth system modeling

ESRL researchers will work closely with 

two wind forecasting companies during 

the next year, to see if high-resolution 

observations and forecasts of wind can 

improve the operation of wind farms and 

electric grid systems.

In September, the U.S. Department of 

Energy awarded $3.4 million to AWS 

Truepower, LLC, of Albany, NY, and 

WindLogics, Inc., of Saint Paul, MN, to 

evaluate the benefit of new observations 

and forecast techniques developed by 

NOAA, and to provide better forecasts for 

wind power production.

In partnership with those companies 

and the DOE, ESRL and NOAA’s Air 

Resources Laboratory will deploy custom 

instruments, including wind-profiling 

radars, to wind farms to collect detailed 

meteorological data. ESRL scientists 

will assimilate those data into highTesting the Wind

NOAA and Industry Partner to Improve 

to the smallest (the need for precise, well 

calibrated reference gas standards against 

which to make measurements.)

Without careful and constant calibration 

of instruments, archiving of data, 

and ongoing comparisons between 

independent measurements, the results 

are not worth much, Tans said, and CMA is 

clearly interested in setting up a system of 

measurements that are credible nationally 

and internationally. 

“It’s in our interest, too, to help them,” Tans 

said. “China is now the biggest emitter of 

greenhouse gases.” 

Although the Chinese visitors sought advice 

and expertise from ESRL, they have some 

advantages over ESRL, Tans said, notably 

funding. “China is clearly making a large 

investment in new instruments,” he said. 

“They are buying very good instruments—

but you also have to adopt the best 

procedures, and there, maybe we can help.” 

GMD Director James Butler said that at the 

end of the workshop, a delegation of CMA 

signed an official agreement with NOAA to 

share data and cooperate on research. 

...Chinese Visitors, from page 1 

A working visit to ESRL by members of the Chinese Meteorological Agency coincided with the Boulder Laboratories 

Employee Association annual picnic. Photo by Will von 

Dauster, ESRL.
9

Pointing Fingers

When the weather gets weird, how to place blame? 

resolution weather forecast models 

focused on the needs of the wind power 

industry—including turbine-height 

winds. Researchers at NOAA, AWS, and 

Windlogics will then evaluate whether 

the new observations and high-resolution 

modeling efforts improve forecasts—and 

how the industry uses those forecasts.

To meet consumer power demand, 

grid operators need more accurate 

information about power generation 

by wind turbines, said Melinda Marquis 

(ESRL Director’s Office) who is leading the 

renewable energy project. With better 

information about the contributions 

of wind farms, grid operators may be 

able to rely less on traditional power 

sources—from coal to natural gas—that 

emit climate-warming greenhouse 

gases. More: http://www.energy.gov/

news/9479.htm

Wind Energy Production

Massive floods in Pakistan this summer 

uprooted 20 million people. A heat wave 

and wildfires in Russia conspired to kill 

thousands more. Nevada is hotter than ever. 

Such news is distressing on many levels 

to Kelly Redmond, Deputy Director of the 

Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, 

NV. First are the human lives and livelihoods 

lost. But there’s also the struggle of federal 

scientists to explain—on time scales of 

interest to policy makers and everyday 

people—what happened.

Redmond’s phone has been ringing a 

lot recently. “Why’s it so hot in Nevada?” 

one reporter asked. “What’s going on in 

California?” asked another. “Is this climate 

change?” He can’t always answer. 

“We hear the same questions over and over 

after extreme events,” said ESRL’s Marty 

Hoerling, who organized an international 

meeting on the attribution of climaterelated events in Broomfield in August. 

“Why did it happen? Has this ever happened 

before? When could it happen again?” 

About 50 scientists (including Redmond), 

communications experts, water managers, 

and other users of climate information spent 

two days identifing what can be done to 

find and communicate answers that might 

be useful to people. 

To start, researchers often need to dissect 

the relative roles of natural variability (such 

as El Niño-Southern Oscillation), random 

weather, and climate change in a weather 

disaster—a drought, a flood, or deadly 

heat. Such “attribution” investigations aren’t 

easy and may require careful analysis of 

historic data, substantial computing power 

to evaluate climate projections, and time 

to asses published scientific papers on 

various climate patterns that might have 

contributed. 

Yet the answers are often of critical 

importance to people on the ground, 

said ESRL’s Roger Pulwarty (PSD and the 

National Integrated Drought Information 

System). If a climate pattern is variable, 

perhaps depending on natural oscillations 

in sea-surface temperatures, then a period 

of crippling aridity, for example, might 

end soon with rain. If an attribution study 

shows a strong role of climate change, the 

conclusions may be different.

“If the trend is persistent, well, that matters 

a great deal in terms of the scenarios that 

people in the Four Corners region develop 

to deal with it,” Pulwarty said. 

Peter Stott from the UK Meteorology Office, 

told the group he had hoped to arrive 

better prepared for the meeting, but was 

inundated with media calls about severe 

weather in Pakistan and Russia. “Last week 

was a bit of an object lesson in why we need 

this sort of activity,” Stott said. 

After Europe’s deadly 2003 heat wave, Stott 

and his colleagues conducted a careful 

attribution study and found that the deadly 

conditions in Europe were two to four times 

more likely in a warmed world than in the 

absence of climate change.

That kind of clear result, communicated well, 

is an incredibly powerful message for many 

people, said Ed Maibach, Director of the 

Center for Climate Change Communication 

at George Mason University, and Susan 

Hassol of Climate Communication, who 

participated in the workshop. 

Maibach offered lessons from his research 

into how people make decisions—including 

the sobering news that scientific “findings” 

seldom have much impact. “Experience 

trumps analysis,” Maibach said. “If we want 

people to grapple with this, we need local, 

concrete, real stories.” 

Workshop participants agreed that to 

respond to public interest in extreme events 

and decision makers’ needs, attribution 

efforts must be timely, even “near real-time.” 

That’s challenging, given that strong science 

and review take time. 

During the meeting, breakout groups 

discussed ways to respond to user need 

with quick turn-around science and 

communications. Suggestions were diverse: 

An international team of attribution experts 

could be “activated” when extreme events 

approach. Or response could be staged, 

starting with a quick assessment of historic 

data to help the media put events into 

context and ending with a full attribution 

study conducted, knowing that it may not 

be done on time to catch the wave of public 

interest. 

Workshop participants also agreed that 

in general, a strong attribution enterprise 

would make it possible to improve 

projections of future climate, including 

extreme events. “The events we’ve seen 

this summer, the urgency compels us,” said 

Hoerling. “We want to do this faster and 

more effectively.”

More International 

Collaboration: India

A delegation of officials from the 

Indian Ministry of Environmental 

Science (MoES) also visited ESRL 

this fall. NOAA and MoES officials 

worked out the final details in an 

Implementation Agreement for NOAA 

to provide technical assistance setting 

up greenhouse gas measurements in 

India, and for the two-way exchange 

of air samples and data. 

Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center) 

and Mike Alexander (ESRL PSD) talk during the attribution conference. Photo by Will von Dauster, ESRL.
10

More news, 

publications, and 

honors from NOAA’s 

Earth System 

Research Laboratory

Tiksi Observatory

ESRL scientists were among 

those celebrating the opening of 

Tiksi Hydrometeorological Climate 

Observatory at 73oN, on a patch of 

windswept Russian tundra. On August 

25, representatives from several 

countries celebrated the installation 

of state-of-the-art equipment at the 

site, which will take long-term climate 

masurements. Taneil Uttal (PSD) helped 

lead the effort to equip and open Tiksi. 

Data will be freely available to the 

international community. 

Full Tiksi story: http://www.research.

noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/2010/articles/

tiksi_russiaclimateobservatory.html.

News in Brief

Alexander Petrovich Makshtas, Arctic and Antarctic 

Research Institute of Roshydromet. Photo by Taneil 

Uttal, ESRL.

Climate Stabilization

ESRL’s Susan Solomon (CSD) chaired 

the committee that wrote a National 

Research Council report released in July,

Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, 

Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades 

to Millennia. The report quantifies 

the relationships between emission, 

concentration, warming, and future 

impacts. It examines the implications 

of a range of future greenhouse gas 

emissions levels, including likely 

impacts and the potential for serious 

or irreversible climate changes. More: 

http://dels.nas.edu/Report/ClimateStabilization-Targets-EmissionsConcentrations/12877). 

Achievement

Black Carbon in Profile 

During a multi-year mission nicknamed 

HIPPO, ESRL scientists and colleagues 

from many other institutions have been 

profiling the atmosphere from pole to 

pole, and from near the surface to high in 

the atmosphere. Among the data being 

gathered are concentrations of particles 

containing “black carbon” (soot) emitted 

from biomass burning, diesel engines, 

cook stoves, and other sources. Black 

carbon absorbs sunlight rather than 

merely reflecting it (as so many other air 

pollution particles do) so scientists have 

been keen to understand more about its 

global distribution. 

So far, the sizes of black carbon 

particles have been surprisingly uniform 

around the globe, Josh Schwarz (CSD) 

and colleagues reported in Geophysical 

Research Letters this fall. The team also 

found that air quality models overestimate 

black carbon levels by, on average, a 

factor of five in remote regions. Although 

that is probably due to several factors, 

including stronger sources in the Northern 

Hemisphere and differences in modeled 

and actual advection processes at the 

time of the measurements, the paper 

identifies a model problem, too: Models 

underestimate aerosol removal processes.

More: doi:10.1029/2010GL044372.

MADIS Milestone 

The ESRL-developed Metorological 

Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) is 

now running operationally at the National 

Weather Service. MADIS achieved “Initial 

Operating Capability” in September. The 

system collects, integrates, quality controls 

and distributes weather observations 

from NOAA and non-NOAA organizations, 

making the data available for increasingly 

high-resolution weather and climate 

models. More: http://madis.noaa.gov/.

ESRL Director Sandy MacDonald and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco at an ESRL workshop. Photo by Will 

von Dauster, ESRL.

Prediction Workshop 

ESRL hosted the Earth System 

Prediction Capability (ESPC) workshop 

in September, with high-level officials 

from NOAA, the Navy, the Air Force, 

NASA, the Department of Energy, and 

the White House Office of Science 

and Technology Policy. About 70 

participants discussed establishing 

a range of operational products that 

“nowcast” (describe Earth systems at 

present) and forecast 30 years in future. 

Participants included Navy Rear Admiral 

David Titley and NOAA Administrator 

Jane Lubchenco.“ These efforts will help 

us understand...more about how our 

ocean, atmosphere, land, ice, and more 

interact—and how people interact with 

the environment,” Lubchenco said in 

her keynote address. “The forest fires 

raging just outside Boulder are just one 

example of how the lives of people are 

so directly linked with weather, climate, 

and land use.” Details: http://www.esrl.

noaa.gov/research/events/espc/.

Summer Students 

About 45 high school, undergraduate, 

and graduate students worked at ESRL 

and the David Skaggs Research Center 

this summer, as part of the Practical 

Hands-on Application to Science 

Education (PHASE). Student projects 

ranged from producing a video about a 

global atmospheric sampling program 

to an evaluation of air quality trends 

in California. This year’s internship 

programs included two high school 

students sponsored by the National 

Center for Atmospheric Research; 

special needs students; and students 

from groups underrepresented in the 

sciences. 

One of ESRL’s students, Hollings 

Scholar Chris Slocum, won first place 

in the Hollings Scholars presentations 

in Silver Spring, MD, at the end of the 

summer; and Justin Krosschell won third 

place.

More about NOAA’s student programs 

in Boulder: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

outreach/student_programs/.
11

8th Grade Science Days

Nearly 300 8th grade students visited 

the David Skaggs Research Center during 

the 8th Grade Science Days in October, 

organized by tour coordinator Hilary 

Peddicord and outreach specialist Carol 

Knight. The students learned about 

weather forecasting, climate change, 

and what it’s like to work at the South 

Pole. They watched a Science on a 

Sphere® presentation, helped launch a 

weather balloon, took part in a real laser 

experiment, and used sunspot data to 

calculate the Sun’s rotation. 

Public tour information: http://www.

esrl.noaa.gov/outreach/tours.html. 

Published 

ESRL’s peer-reviewed publications 

are available in a searchable 

database:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/search/

pubs/

Division Publication pages:

GMD: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/

publications/

PSD: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/pubs/

CSD: www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/pubs/

GSD: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/

publications/

Houston Emissions Down

Haze often hovers over Houston, 

from chemical pollution produced 

by petroleum processing facilities. 

But that haze may be thinning a bit, 

according to a new ESRL-led study. The 

researchers found a drop in emissions 

of some chemicals. But the new 

findings—which have implications for 

petrochemical-producing cities around 

the world—come with a catch: Industry 

still significantly underestimates the 

amounts of some reactive chemicals 

being released into the air. More: Search 

doi:10.1029/2009JD013645 or see http://

cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2010/

houstonNox.html.

Three ESRL researchers received 

prestigious Gold Medals from the 

Department of Commerce this fall: 

Mark Cunningham (GMD) received a 

Department of Commerce Gold Medal 

“for heroic efforts treating injured 

Samoans following the 2009 tsunami 

and providing emergency power for 

the sole phone link in Eastern Samoa.” 

Susan Solomon (CSD) and Roger 

Pulwarty (PSD) shared a Group 

Gold Medal with several other NOAA 

colleagues, “for producing a major 

scientific report detailing the impacts 

of global climate change in the United 

States.”

Honors

ESRL Director Sandy MacDonald speaks with summer 

students. Photo by Will von Dauster, ESRL. Laurel Watts and her NI Graphical System Design 

Achievement Award. Photo by Will von Dauster, ESRL.

Gulf Air Quality 

When the Deepwater Horizon oil 

spill occurred, ESRL scientists led a 

quick-response mission to collect air 

quality data from the region, from the 

instrument-packed NOAA P3 aircraft. The 

scientists measured levels of nearly 100 

air pollutants, from areas in the vicinity 

of the spill, downwind, and along the 

coast. Data are now publicly available. At 

and near the spill, common air pollutants 

such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, and 

carbon monoxide, were at levels typical 

to those found in urban areas of U.S. 

cities. Downwind of the slick, several 

hydrocarbons were in much higher 

concentrations than typically found in 

cities.

Scientists also measured large 

amounts of black carbon in smoke from 

a controlled burn of crude oil on the 

water’s surface.

The air chemistry flights were 

conducted to support the efforts of 

the Environmental Protection Agency 

and Occupational Safety and Health 

Administration to assess air quality for 

coastal residents and oil spill response 

workers. 

More: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/

stories2010/PDFs/NOAA_P3_Gulf%20

Mission%20Report_final.pdf.

Laurel Watts (CSD) led a team that was 

awarded the 2010 National Instruments 

Graphical System Design Achievement 

Award, for design of a system to control 

an ozone instrument flown on a Global 

Hawk UAS during an atmospheric 

science mission over the Pacific Ocean.

Tom Hamill and Jeff Whitaker (PSD) 

were awarded 14,500,000 processor 

hours on Department of Energy highperformance computational resources 

for creating a next-generation multidecadal “reforecast” dataset, which will 

be used for renewable energy forecasts 

and other applications. 

Several ESRL scientists have been 

selected to participate as leading 

authors and reviewers for parts of 

the next Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change (IPCC) assessment: 

Ed Dlugokencky (GMD, lead author 

of Working Group I, Chapter 2: 

Observations: Atmosphere and 

Surface); Judith Perlwitz (PSD and 

CIRES, lead author of Working Group I, 

Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution 

of Climate Change: From Global to 

Regional); Roger Pulwarty (PSD, 

coordinating lead author of Working 

Group II, Chapter 15: Adaptation 

Planning and Implementation); Pieter 

Tans (GMD, review editor of Working 

Group I, Chapter 6: Carbon and Other 

Biogeochemical Cycles); and A.R. 

Ravishankara (CSD Director, review 

editor of Working Group 1, Chapter 8: 

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative 

Forcing). The IPCC’s next assessment, 

the fifth, will be published between 

2013 and 2014.

Leslie Hartten (PSD) was recognized for 

10 years of mentoring student scientists 

through the Significant Opportunities 

in Atmospheric Research and Science 

program, administered by the National 

Center for Atmospheric Research.
12

Earth System Research Laboratory 

325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov

ESRL Quarterly Editor: Katy Human, katy.g.human@noaa.gov

Photographer: Will von Dauster

Other Contributors: Barb DeLuisi, Morgan Heim, Linda Joy, 

Jane Palmer Annie Reiser 

www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/quarterly 

ESRL Leadership

Alexander MacDonald, Director

John Schneider, Deputy Director

Donald Mock, Executive Director, NOAA Boulder Laboratories

A.R. Ravishankara, Chemical Sciences Division Director

James Butler, Global Monitoring Division Director

Steven Koch, Global Systems Division Director

William Neff, Physical Sciences Division Director

At NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, we observe, understand, and predict the Earth system through 

research that advances NOAA’s environmental information and services, from minutes to millennia on global to 

local scales. ESRL’s partners are the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of 

Colorado at Boulder, and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. 

One overcast day in July, ESRL’s David Kingsmill watched raindrops 

falling on the rainbow-colored umbrella he held. This was a 

decidedly unusual rainstorm, however. The drops were not falling 

from the sky, but from a “rain chamber” outside the Exploratorium in 

San Francisco. 

Kingsmill (PSD) and ESRL colleagues are helping develop a new 

exhibit with the Exploratorium, an internationally acclaimed 

“museum of science, art and human perception.” 

Last year, NOAA signed on a five-year educational partnership to 

co-develop interactive exhibits, online learning experiences and 

professional development workshops for the learning institution. 

“The Exploratorium provides a really good vehicle for delivering our 

message to the public,” said Kingsmill. “People can literally get their 

hands on what we are doing at NOAA.”

Shortly after the partnership was announced, Exploratorium staff 

visited ESRL, to learn more about NOAA science. Kingsmill and his 

colleagues wowed the museum’s Mary Miller, Thomas Humphrey, 

and others with a laboratory demonstration of rain-measuring 

instruments used to study the connection between climate and 

weather in the water cycle. The group began brainstorming how 

these instruments—and the science on which they are based—

might be presented to the public in a unique and engaging way.

During the next few months, staff from the two institutions shared 

a flurry of ideas. The teams got to thinking, “While it’s true that the 

weather can’t be controlled in the real world, what about in a closetsized exhibit?” The concept of a rain chamber was born. 

The Exploratorium exhibit would employ rain gauges, which 

measure the volume of rain, and “disdrometers,” which count 

individual raindrops and characterize their size and fall speed. 

Kingsmill consulted with exhibit fabricators on rain formation so 

that the rain produced by the chamber was realistic enough.

Another important part of developing the exhibit was 

demonstrating ESRL’s equipment to Exploratorium visitors and staff, 

to determine their interests and their baseline level of scientific 

knowledge before figuring out what kinds of visual aids would be 

helpful in an exhibit. Kingsmill and Allen White (also PSD), spent 

time at the Exploratorium this summer doing just that. 

Being right at the museum made it easy to test new ideas practically 

on the spot. For example, after conducting demonstrations of the 

instruments in one area of the museum, they realized that it made 

more sense to move them next to existing exhibits on fog and 

raindrops to provide visitors with additional context. 

Raindrops Keep Falling on my 

Disdrometer

ESRL partners with leading science museum to develop 

hands-on science exhibit 

Dave Kinsmill tests a disdrometer—and an umbrella—outside the Exploratorium in San 

Francisco. Photo courtesy of the Exploratorium.

“One of the great things about working at the Exploratorium was 

each day saying, ‘How’d it go?’ and ‘What can we do differently?’” 

said Kingsmill. 

The culminating demonstration of the summer was an evaluation 

on Sept. 15. Kingsmill used new prototype visuals and a tabletop 

version of the rain chamber to engage visitors. Exploratorium 

staff observed from a distance and then interviewed people as 

they left the area. One finding was that most of the visitors could 

understand individual exhibits, but struggled to see how they 

were related to each other. That evaluation, and feedback from the 

other demonstrations, will help guide the development of a more 

permanent exhibit.

The rain chamber exhibit will continue to evolve for the next couple 

years as ESRL and the Exploratorium design complementary pieces 

to help tell the story of rain and explain the connection between 

scientific instrumentation and big issues such as flooding and 

climate change. 

— with Barb DeLuisi