5

- i CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

5.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 5

- 1 5.2 EQUIPMENT CLASSES

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 5

- 1 5.2.1 Representative Input Capacities

................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 3 5.3 EFFICIENCY LEVELS AN ALYZED

................................ ................................ ................ 5

- 3 5.3.1 Baseline Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ .................. 5

- 3 5.3.2 Max

- tech Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................. 5

- 4 5.3.3 Intermediate Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ............ 5

- 5 5.4 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 5

- 8 5.4.1 Data Collection

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 5

- 8 5.4.2 Mechanical Draft Non

- Condensing Boilers

................................ ......................... 5

- 9 5.4.3 Mechanical Draft Condensing Boilers (Hot water Equipment Classes Only)

... 5

- 10 5.4.4 Natural Draft Boil ers

................................ ................................ .......................... 5

- 10 5.5 RESULTS

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 5

- 11 5.5.1 Graphical Representation of Results

................................ ................................ .. 5

- 135

- ii LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 5.5.1. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 14 Figure 5.5.2. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 14 Figure 5.5.3. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 14 Figure 5.5.4. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 15 Figure 5.5.5. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 15 Figure 5.5.6. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 15 Figure 5.5.7. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 5

- 16 Figure 5.5.8: Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 5

- 16 Figure 5.5.9. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 16 Figure 5.5.10. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 17 Figure 5.5.11. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 17 Figure 5.5.12. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 17 Figure 5.5.13. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 18 Figure 5.5.14. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 18 Figure 5.5.15. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 18 Figure 5.5.16. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Large Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 195

- iii LIST OF TABLES

Table 5.2.1. Equipment Classes Considered by the Department of Energy for the Preliminary Analysis

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 5

- 2 Table 5.3.1. Baseline Efficiencies for All Equipment Classes

................................ .................... 5

- 4 Table 5.3.2. Natural Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 5 Table 5.3.3. Natural Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 5 Table 5.3.4. Natural Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 5 Table 5.3.5. Natural Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 6 Table 5.3.6. Natural Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 6 Table 5.3.7. Natural Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 6 Table 5.3.8. Natural Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 6 Table 5.3.9. Natural Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Pa ckaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 6 Table 5.3.10. Mechanical Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficien cy Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5

- 6 Table 5.3.11. Mechanical Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5

- 7 Table 5.3.12. Mechanical Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5

- 7 Table 5.3.13. Mechanical Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5

- 7 Table 5.3.14. Mechanical Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5

- 7 Table 5.3.15. Mechanical Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5

- 7 Table 5.3.16. Mechanical Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 7 Table 5.3.17. Mechanical Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 8 Table 5.5.1. Incremental a nd Baseline Prices for all Natural Draft Equipment Classes for Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 11 Table 5.5.2. Incremental and Basel ine Costs for all Mechanical Draft Equipment Classes for Commercial Packaged Boilers

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5

- 125

- 1 CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYS IS

5.1 INTRODUCTION
The engineering analysis estab lishes the relationship between equipment price s and energy

- efficiency of commercial packaged boilers (CPB s ). The price

- efficiency relationship

serves as a basis for subsequent cost/benefit calculations for individual customers, manufacturers, and the Nation.
To determine the industry price

- efficiency relationship, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) uses data from the chapter 3, market and tec hnology assessment , publicly available equipment literature and research reports, and information from manufacturers and installers

. DOE subsequently collected commercial packaged boiler price s primarily from data provided by manufacturers, mechanical contractors
, and equipment distributors, and categorized contractor price s by thermal and combustion efficiency, output capacity, input fuel, type of heating output ( i.e

. , hot water or steam), and the type of boiler draft system (atmospheric or other). DOE used this d ata along with rated performance data obtained from the Air

- conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute’s (AHRI’s) Directory of Certified Product Performance for commercial boilers to carry out the engineering analysis. 1

The methodology adopted for the engineering analysis generally involves calculating prices of commercial packaged boiler s for a given input rating (representative capa city) for each manufacturer at an efficiency level higher than the minimum allowable stan dard (baseline efficiency)

. The primary output of the analysis is a set of price

- efficiency relationships that represent the average change in price for higher efficiency equipment (i.e., “incremental price”)

. In the subsequent markups analysis (chapter 6 in the preliminary Technical Support Document ( TSD) ) , DOE determines customer prices by applying distribution markups, sales tax, and contractor markups to the manufacturer sales prices developed in the engineering analysis. After applying these markups, the data serve as inputs to the energy use characterization (chapter 7 in the preliminary TSD) and the life

- cycle cost and payback period analyses (chapter 8 in the preliminary TSD).
In this chapter, DOE discusses : (1) the equipment classes it analyzed
, ( 2) the identification of represen tative baseline units and efficiency levels above the baseline
, (3) the methodology for calculating price

- efficiency relationship s , and (4 ) the results of the analysis

.

5.2 EQUIPMENT CLASSES
Existing energy conservation standards
, set forth in section 431.87 of subpart E of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Part 431 (10 CFR Part 431)
, classify CPB s into ten equipment classes. The boilers are classified based on three performance parameters : (1) input capacity ( small (≥300kBtu/h to ≤2500kBtu/h) or large (>2500kBtu/h)), (2) fuel type (gas or oil)
, and (3) heating media (hot water or steam). Using the three parameters, eight equipment classes can be formed. The remaining two equipment classes are created by further classifying gas

- fired steam boilers based on draft type (mechanical draft or natural draft) . These ten equipment classes have also been described in chapter 3 of this preliminary TSD.5

- 2 O n August 13, 2013, DOE published in the Federal Register a proposed de termination of coverage for natural draft commercial packaged boilers which would explicitly clarify DOE’s statutory authority under EPCA to cover natural draft commercial packaged boilers. 78 FR 49202. As discussed in chapter 3 of this preliminary TSD, i f the outcome of the proposed determination is positive, DOE will create separate equipment classes and energy conservation standards for natural draft CPBs

. Although the outcome is pending, for the current rulemaking analysis , DOE has separated CPBs based on draft type ( i.e. , natural draft or mechanical draft)

. Th u s , if the determination is ultimately positive, it w ou l d add six new equipment classes to the existing ones set forth in 10 CFR Part 431

. The Table 5.2

. 1 below shows the list of all equipment classes analyzed for t h is preliminary analysis . Further details about the classification s
are provided in chapter 3

– M arket and T echnology A ssessment

.

Table 5.2

. 1

. Equipment Classes Considered by the D epartment of E nergy for the Preliminary Analysis Draft Type Size Category Fuel Type Heating Medium Full Name
Natural

Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Hot Water Small Gas

- fired Natural Draft Hot Water CPB Natural

Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Hot Water Large Gas

- fired Natural Draft Hot Water CPB Natural

Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Hot Water Small Oil

- fired Natural Draft Hot Water CPB Natural

Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Hot Water Large Oil

- fired Natural Draft Hot Water CPB Natural

Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Steam Small Gas

- fired Natural Draft Steam CPB Natural

Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Steam Large Gas

- fired Natural Draft Steam CPB Natural

Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Steam Small Oil

- fired Natural Draft Steam CPB Natural

Draft Large (> 2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Steam Large Oil

- fired Natural Draft Steam CPB Mechanical Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Hot Water Small Gas

- fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water CPB Mechanical Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Hot Water Large Gas

- fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water CPB Mechanical Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Hot Water Small Oil

- fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water CPB Mechanical Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Hot Water Large Oil

- fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water CPB Mechanical Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Steam Small Gas

- fired Mechanical Draft Steam CPB Mechanical Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Gas

- fired Steam Large Gas

- fired Mechanical Draft Steam CPB Mechanical Draft Small (≥300,000 Btu/h and ≤2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Steam Small Oil

- fired Mechanical Draft Steam CPB Mechanical Draft Large (>2,500,000 Btu/h) Oil

- fired Steam Large Oil

- fired Mechanical Draft Steam CPB5

- 3 5.2.1 Representative Input Capacities
Efficiency and input ratings are two major factors which influence boiler prices

. The two factors are mutually independent of each other and depend mostly on the physical characteristics of the boiler such as size, gas/oil flow rate, heat excha nger capability
, etc. The impact of efficiency rating s on boiler price can be captured by calculating incremental price for each efficiency level higher than the baseline at a given input rating

.

. Therefore, to provide a singular set of incremental price results for the engineering analysis, DOE selected for each equipment class a single input capacity to represent the entire equipment class. The representative capacity essentially corresponds to the boiler capacity that has the highest number of shi pments in any given year . Using a representative capacity enables DOE to analyze certain equipment characteristics for proxy information about th e entire equipment class.

For th e preliminary analysis , DOE se lected 800kBtu/h as the representative capacity f or small boilers (≥300kBtu/h to ≤2,500kBtu) and 3,000kBtu/h for large boilers (>2,500kBtu/h). DOE chose these levels by taking into account a number of sources
, such as previous rulemaking analyses
, information obtained during manufacturer interviews, info rmation collected for the market and technology assessment, equipment product literature
, and discussions with industry experts.

5.3 EFFICIENCY LEVELS AN ALYZED

5.3.1 Baseline Efficiency Levels

DOE selected baseline efficiency levels as reference points for each equipment class, against which DOE calculate s potential changes in energy use, cost , and utility that could result from an amended energy conservat ion standard. The energy conservation standards for CPBs, under subpart E of 10 CFR Part 431, represent requi red efficiency levels for such equipment to be distributed in commerce in the U.S. Typically, a baseline unit is one that meets , but does not exceed, the required energy conservation standard , as applicable, and provides basic consumer utility. E ach effici ency standard specified in 10 CFR 431.87 serve s as a basis or reference point to calculate any incremental price to achieve a higher efficiency level and referred to as the “baseline efficiency.” A b oiler model that ha s a rated efficienc y equal to its applicable baseline efficiency is referred to as a “ baseline model. ”

DOE uses the baseline model for comparison in several phases of the analyses, including the engineering analysis, lifecycle cost (LCC) analysis, payback period (PBP) analysis and nation al impacts analysis (NIA). To determine energy savings that will result from an amended energy conservation standard, DOE compares energy use at each of the higher energy efficiency levels to the energy use of the baseline model . Similarly, to determine th e changes in price to the customer that will result from an amended energy conservation standard, DOE compares the price of a baseline model to the price of a model at each higher efficiency level.5

- 4 As part of its analyses DOE also conducts a review of comm on boiler technology features present in baseline models and compares them with technology features of higher efficiency models. This helps DOE validate any incremental prices for higher efficiency models. Table 5.3

. 1 below shows the 16 equipment classes and their baseline efficiencies.

Table 5.3

. 1

. Baseline E fficiencies for A ll E quipment Classes

Equipment Type Draft Type Fuel Type Size Category Baseline Efficiency *

Hot Water Natural Draft Gas

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 80% E T

Hot Water Natural Draft Gas

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 82% E C

Hot Water Natural Draft Oil

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 82% E T

Hot Water Natural Draft Oil

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 84% E C

Steam Natural Draft Gas

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 77% E T

Steam Natural Draft Gas

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 77% E T

Steam Natural Draft Oil

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 81% E T

Steam Natural Draft Oil

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 81% E T

Hot Water Mechanical Draft Gas

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 80% E T

Hot Water Mechanical Draft Gas

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 82% E C

Hot Water Mechanical Draft Oil

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 82% E T

Hot Water Mechanical Draft Oil

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 84% E C

Steam Mechanical Draft Gas

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 79% E T

Steam Mechanical Draft Gas

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 79% E T

Steam Mechanical Draft Oil

- fired Small ( ≥300,000Btu/h and ≤2,500,000Btu/h) 81% E T

Steam Mechanical Draft Oil

- fired Large ( >2,500,000Btu/h) 81% E T

* E T means Thermal Efficiency and E c means Combustion Efficiency

5.3.2 Max

- tech Efficiency Levels
As part of its engineering analysis, DOE determined the maximum technologically feasible (“max

- tech”) improvement in energy efficiency for commercial packaged boilers as required under section 342 of EPCA. ( 42 U.S.C. 6313(a)(6)(A)(ii)(II) ) DOE survey ed the CPB market and the research fields that support th at market. The DOE

- determined max

- tech levels for5

- 5 th e engineering analysis are shown in Table 5.3

. 2

. through Table 5.3

. 17 , and correspond to the maximum efficiency t hat is commercially available

.
5.3.3 Intermediate Efficiency Levels

In the engineering analysis, DOE generally identifies , for each equipment class, several efficiency levels between the baseline efficiency level and max

- tech efficiency level

. The efficiency le vels typically represent the most common efficiencies on the market or a major design change ( e.g. , switching to a condensing heat exchanger). DOE identifie s several efficiency levels for each equipment class based on an extensive review of publicly available CPB equipment literature and the 2013 AHRI Directory of Certified Product Performance

. Table 5.3

. 2

. through Table 5.3

. 17 show the efficiency levels analyzed for each equipment class.

Table 5.3

. 2 . Natural Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Ef ficiency Levels

Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 80 Efficiency Level 1 81 Efficiency Level 2 82 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 85

Table 5.3

. 3

. Natural Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Combustion Efficiency(%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 82 Efficiency Level 1 83 Efficiency Level 2 (Max

- tech) 84

Table 5.3

. 4 . Natural Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 82 Efficiency Level 1 83 Efficiency Level 2 85 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 875

- 6 Table 5.3

. 5

. Natural Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Combustion Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 84 Efficiency Level 1 85 Efficiency Level 2 (Max

- tech) 86

Table 5.3

. 6

. Natural Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Base line) 77 Efficiency Level 1 79 Efficiency Level 2 (Max

- tech) 80

Table 5.3

. 7

. Natural Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 77 Efficiency Level 1 79 Efficiency Level 2 80 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 81

Table 5.3

. 8

. Natural Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Level s Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Baseline Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 81 Efficiency Level 1 82 Efficiency Level 2 (Max

- tech) 83

Table 5.3

. 9

. Natural Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 81 Efficiency Level 1 82 Efficiency Level 2 83 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 85

Table 5.3

. 10

. Mechanical Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 80 Efficiency Level 1 83 Efficiency Level 2 85 Efficiency Level 3 87 Efficiency Level 4 92 Efficiency Level 5 955

- 7 Efficiency Level 6 (Max

- tech) 98

Table 5.3

. 11

. Mechanical Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Combustion Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 82 Efficiency Level 1 8 4 Efficiency Level 2 8 6 Efficiency Level 3 94 Efficiency Level 4 (Max

- tech) 9 7

Table 5.3

. 12

. Mechanical Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 82 Efficiency Level 1 83 Efficiency Level 2 84 Efficiency Level 3 87 Efficiency Level 4 (Max

- tech) 98

Table 5.3

. 13

. Mechanical Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Combustion Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 84 Efficiency Level 1 86 Efficiency Level 2 88 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 97

Table 5.3

. 14

. Mechanical Draft

- Small Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 79 Efficiency Level 1 80 Efficiency Level 2 81 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 83

Table 5.3

. 15

. Mechanical Draft

- Large Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 79 Efficiency Level 1 80 Efficiency Level 2 (Max

- tech) 83

Table 5.3

. 16

. Mechanical Draft

- Small Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 815

- 8 Efficiency Level 1 83 Efficiency Level 2 84 Efficiency Level 3 (Max

- tech) 86

Table 5.3

. 17

. Mechanical Draft

- Large Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler Efficiency Levels Efficiency Level Thermal Efficiency (%) Efficiency Level 0 (Baseline) 81 Efficiency Level 1 83 Efficiency Level 2 (Max

- tech) 86

DOE used these efficiency levels in the analysis as target efficiencies for calculating incremental price of achieving increased efficiency. The incremental price refers to the additional price that the first customer in the distribution chain would have to pay for higher efficiency equipment

.

5.4 METHODOLOGY
This section describes the analytical methodology DOE used in the engineering analysis. DOE collected and compiled CPB pric ing information and categorized all the boiler models into the 16 equipment clas ses. For equipment classes where limited pricing information was available , DOE used different statistical inference techniques to calculate incremental prices

. The DOE methodology to calculate incremental price s is based on characteristics of boilers of e ach equipment clas s ( such as condensing or non

- condensing and natural or mechanical draft) and the pricing information that it was able to collect

. Generally, DOE categorize s prices based on manufacturers and separately calculates incremental price s for each manufacturer. For the l arge CPB equipment classes, DOE was unable to collect a significant amount of pricing information, so in some cases DOE considered the price of two small boilers having an input capacity of 1500kBtu/h to match the 3,000kBt u/h representative capacity for large boilers . This helped to expand the available data for large boilers
, which improved the accuracy of the results

.
5.4.1 Data Collection
DOE identified commercial packaged boiler models for each equipment class at each representative input capacity and across a range of efficiencies. The models DOE identified include various designs and materials ( e.g ., cast iron, copper, aluminum) in their respective heat exchangers. Through discussion with manufacturers, distributors, and mechanical contractors, DOE obtained the contractor prices for commercial packaged boiler models at various efficiency levels for a variety of commercial boiler types and configurations. DOE also obtained contractor markup percentages, which refer to t he profit and overhead margins of contractors. These markups were discounted from the prices to estimate manufacturer prices. The majority of the data that DOE collected were in the small, gas

- fired, hot water, mechanical draft equipment class. DOE also c ollected a limited amount of data for the rest of the mechanical draft equipment classes. In the natural draft equipment classes, most of the available data were for small gas

- fired natural draft equipment classes. Apart from this, there were only limited data available for the remainder of the natural draft equipment classes.5

- 9 5.4.2 Mechanical Draft Non

- Condensing Boilers
For most equipment classes of mechanical draft boilers, DOE obtain ed p rices for different CPBs at a variety of input ratings and efficiency lev els , which allowed DOE to estimate the average price of a CPB at each efficiency level

. As a first step, DOE isolated data that w ere collected at the “representative” input capacity discussed in section 5.2.1 of this chapter. DOE then subtract ed the price s of all higher efficiency models at the representative input from the baseline price at the representative input for each manufacturer to determine the incremental price increase for higher efficiency equipment from each manufacturer

. DOE took an average of all the incremental price s at every efficiency level to arrive at the final average incremental price of achieving each efficiency level

. DOE used this approach to analyze t he following equipment classes:
1) Small gas

- fired mechanical draft hot water boilers (SGMDHW)

– Non

- condensing efficiency levels only
2) Large gas

- fired mechanical draft hot water boilers (LGMDHW)

– N on

- condensing efficiency levels only
3) Small oil

- fired mechanical draft hot water boilers (SOMDHW)

– Non

- condensing efficiency level s only
4) Large oil

- fired mechanical draft hot water boilers (LOMDHW)

– Non

- condensing efficiency levels onl y
5) Small gas

- fired mechanical draft steam boilers (SGMDST) a
6) Small oil

- fired mechanical draft steam boilers (SO MDST) a
In some cases prices were not available for all efficiency levels being analyzed

. However, in such cases, DOE had efficiency information both at levels above and below the analyzed level. In such cases, DOE used regression analysis to infer the prices at the efficiency level being analyzed

. For example, if DOE was analyzing 83 percent thermal efficiency and had pricing information for 82 percent , 84 percent and 8 5 percent thermal efficienc y models from a given manufacturer, a regression would be used to estimate the price of an 83 percent model from that manufacturer. Using this approach DOE was able to approximate prices for all efficiency levels from each manufacturer

. For two of the mec hanical draft commercial packaged boiler equipment classes

– large gas

- fired mechanical draft steam (LGMDST) boilers and large oil

- fired mechanical draft steam (LOMDST) boiler

– DOE was unable to collect adequate pricing information to conduct an analysis as described above . For these two classes, the price

efficiency relationship was estimat ed based on other similar equipment classes. To analyze these classes, DOE first took the ratio of incremental prices between large gas

- fired hot water equipment class es and small gas

- fired hot water equipment classes for each efficiency level. This ratio was multiplied by the incremental price for each efficiency level for small gas

- fired mechanical draft steam boilers and small oil

- fired mechanical draft steam boilers . The product of the two numbers was assumed to be the incremental prices for large gas

- fired steam boilers and

a Equipment classes with steam as a heating medium include only non

- condensing boilers.5

- 10 large oil

- fired steam boilers. The incremental price s were then calculated by subtracting the higher efficiency prices from the baseline prices.
Condensing boilers we re analyzed separately from non

- condensing boilers because of three considerations: (1) A c ondensing boiler ha s an additional secondary or a primary heat exchanger made of corrosion resistant materials to allow condensation of water vapor from flue gasses. This feature makes it distinct from a conventional commercial packaged boiler ; (2) The price transition from a non

- condensing to a condensing boiler is generally not necessarily smooth ‒t here is a step change in price from a non

- condensing boiler to a condensing boiler ; and (3) A s observed from price data, the slop e of the price

- efficiency relationship for all condensing efficiency levels is generally steeper than all non

- condensing efficiency levels

.
5.4.3 Mechanical Draft Con densing Boilers (Hot water Equipment Classes Only)
Efficiency levels above 90 percent represent condens ing boiler efficiencies . These efficiency levels were present in four of the mechanical draft
, hot water equipment classes

– small gas

- fired boiler s (S GMDHW), large gas

- fired boiler s (LGMDHW), small oil

- fired boiler s (SOMDHW) and large oil

- fired boilers (LOMDHW)

. LGMDHW condensing boilers did not require any special considerations for analyses. Sufficient pricing information was available
, which enabled DOE to analyze these boilers using the same approach as illustrated above for non

- condensing boilers.
For SGMDHW condensing boilers, c ertain special considerations were made by DOE

. The methodology for calculating incremental price for this equipment class involved an additional step to consider the price impacts of different heat exchanger materials

. Generally
, materials such as copper, aluminum
, and stainless steel are used for making condensing boilers. DOE took the average of p rices of all manufacturers producing condensing boilers having the

same material type, for every efficiency level. This resulted in a single representative price for each efficiency level based on the material type . Prices of higher efficiency models were subtracted from the baseline within each material category. T he final average i ncremental price for equipment at each higher efficiency level w as calculated by taking an average of the incremental prices across all of the heat exchanger material s

.
SOMDHW a nd LOMDHW condensing boilers were also analyzed separately. Due to the relatively small market for condensing oil

- fired equipment, DOE was unable to obtain pricing information for condensing boiler models in these equipment classes. As a result, t he price of condensing oil

- fired CPBs were inferred by DOE based on price efficiency equations for SGMDHW and LGMDHW boilers. The ratio of the slope ( of the price

- efficiency curve ) between

non

- condensing and condensing boilers was assumed to be the same for all small and large type equipment classes
, respectively . DOE used this slope ratio and the slope of the equation for non

condensing boilers (for SOMDHW and LOMDHW) to deduce the relationship for the price

efficiency curve for condensing boilers of th ese equip ment class es

.
5.4.4 Natural Draft Boiler s
DOE was able to collect a limited amount of p ricing information for natural draft boilers. To calculate incremental price s for such equipment classes, DOE first assessed the component level differences between mechanica l draft and natural draft boilers. While mechanical draft5

- 11 systems have a blower or fan that mechanically assists in creating draft to expel the by

- products of combustion , natural draft systems typically include a draft hood which allows flue gases to vent out to the atmosphere using only the natural buoyancy effect

. For calculating natural draft prices, DOE co mpared the price differential between mechanical draft components (such as fans or blowers) and natural draft components (such as stack dampers and a draft hood ) for a same sized boiler

. This price differential was subtracted from mechanical draft boiler prices to estimate natural draft boiler prices for corresponding equipment class es . For example, the small gas

- fired natural draft hot water equipment prices were calculated by subtracting the differential price ( between a mechanical draft system and a natural draft system) from small gas

- fired mechanical draft hot water boiler prices. This method was applied to all natural draft equipment classes to obt ain pricing estimates for natural draft CPBs

. The results were then validated by comparing the estimated price

- efficiency results to the limited pricing data that was collected for natural draft CPBs. Incremental price s were then obtained by subtracting prices for higher efficiency levels from the corresponding baseline price s

. The equipment classes analyzed using the aforementioned methodologies are listed below:
1) Small gas

- fired natural draft hot water boilers (SGNDHW)
2) Large gas

- fired natural draft hot water boilers (LGNDHW)
3) Small oil

- fired natural draft hot water boilers (SONDHW)
4) Large oil

- fired natural draft hot water boilers (LONDHW)
5) Small gas

- fired natural draft steam boilers (SGNDST)
6) Large gas

- fired natural draft steam boilers (LONDST)
7) Small oil

- fired natural draft steam boilers (SONDST)
8) Large oil

- fired natural draft steam boilers (LONDST)

5.5 RESULTS
The final result of the engineering analysis is a set of price

- efficiency relationships . DOE developed these relationship s for all sixteen equipment cl asses of commercial packaged boilers using the methodologies described in the previous section. In the rulemaking process, the results obtained from the engineering analysis chapter are utilized further to conduct all subsequent analyses
, such as life

- cycle cost (LCC) analysis, e nergy use analysis , and so forth

. In general,

r esults from the engineering analysis show an increasing trend for incremental price for achieving higher efficiency. Table 5.5

. 1

. and Table 5.5

. 2

. below show the incremental and baseline price for all natural and mechanical draft equipment cla sses.

Table 5.5

. 1

. Incremental and Baseline Prices for all Natural Draft Equipment Classes for Commercial Packaged Boilers
NATURAL DRAFT

Product Class Efficiency Level Incremental Price Baseline Price5

- 12 Small Gas

- fired Hot Water, ≥ 300,000 Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 80% $0

$ 3,799 81% $529
82% $1,307
85% $3,078

Large Gas

- fired Hot Water, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 82% * $0 $ 16,898 83% * $2,075
84% * $4,343

Small Oil

- fired Hot Water, ≥ 300,000 Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 82% $0

$ 5,486 83% $395
85% $3,282
87% $3,654

Large Oil

- fired Hot Water, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 84% * $0 $ 15,845 85% * $2,300
86% * $4,138

Small Gas

- fired Steam, ≥ 300,000

Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 77% $0 $ 3,215 79% $1,601
80% $2,661

Large Gas

- fired Steam, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 77% $0

$ 5,248 79% $3,858
80% $7,392
81% $11,334

Small Oil

- fired Steam, ≥ 300,000

Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 81% $0 $ 5,286 82% $1,046
83% $2,204

Large Oil

- fired Steam, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 81% $0

$ 7,998 82% $2,966
83% $6,250
85% $13,892 * Efficiency levels mentioned are combustion efficiency

Table 5.5

. 2

. Incremental an d Baseline Costs for all Mechanical Draft Equipment Classes for Commercial Packaged Boilers
MECHANICAL DRAFT

Product Class Efficiency Level Incremental Price Baseline Price

Small Gas

- fired Hot Water, ≥ 300,000 Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 80% $0

$ 7,120 83% $1,710
85% $3,078
87% $4,665
92% $6,8195

- 13 95% $11,211
98% $15,604

Large Gas

- fired Hot Water, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 82% * $0

$ 22,256 84% * $4,343
86% * $9,533
94% * $31,784
97% * $35,892

Small Oil

- fired Hot Water, ≥ 300,000 Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 82% $0

$ 8,806 83% $814
84% $1,629
87% $4,073
98% $18,943

Large Oil

- fired Hot Water, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 84% * $0

$ 21,203 86% * $5,348
88% * $8,459
97% * $47,635

Small Gas

- fired Steam, ≥ 300,000

Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 79% $0

$ 8,136 80% $1,060
81% $2,243
83% $5,025

Large Gas

- fired Steam, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 79% $0 $ 14,464 80% $3,534
83% $16,750

Small Oil

- fired Steam, ≥ 300,000

Btu/hr and ≤ 2,500,000 Btu/hr 81% $0

$ 8,607 83% $2,204
84% $3,485
86% $6,461

Large Oil

- fired Steam, >2,500,000 Btu/hr 81% $0 $ 13,355 83% $6,250
86% $18,316 * Efficiency levels mentioned are combustion efficiency

5.5.1 Graphical Representation of Results
Figure 5.5

. 1 to Figure 5.5

. 16 below show a graphical representation of the relationship between incremental price and efficiency for each equipment class.5

- 14 Figure 5.5

. 1

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 2

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 3

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Small Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500

79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86%Incremental Price [$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SGNDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000

82% 82% 83% 83% 84% 84% 85%IncrementalPrice[$]

Combustion Efficiency [%] LGNDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000

81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SONDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve5

- 15 Figure 5.5

. 4

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 5

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Small Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 6

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Gas

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000

84% 84% 85% 85% 86% 86% 87%IncrementalPrice[$]

Combustion Efficiency [%] LONDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000

77% 77% 78% 78% 79% 79% 80% 80% 81%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SGNDST Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

76% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] LGNDST Price

- Efficiency Curve5

- 16 Figure 5.5

. 7

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Small Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 8 : Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Oil

- Fired Natural Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 9

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Small Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

81% 81% 82% 82% 83% 83% 84%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SONDST Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000

80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] LONDST Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 $16,000 $20,000

80% 85% 90% 95% 100%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SGMDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve5

- 17 Figure 5.5

. 10

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 11

. Price

- Efficiency Relati onship f or Small Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 12

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000

82% 84% 86% 94% 97%IncrementalPrice[$]

Combustion Efficiency [%] LGMDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 $16,000 $20,000

80% 85% 90% 95% 100%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SOMDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

80% 85% 90% 95% 100%IncrementalPrice[$]

Combustion Efficiency [%] LOMDHW Price

- Efficiency Curve5

- 18 Figure 5.5

. 13

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Small Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 14

. Price

- Efficiency Relations hip f or Large Gas

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers

Figure 5.5

. 15

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship for Small Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SGMDST Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] LGMDST Price

- Efficiency Curve

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] SOMDST Price

- Efficiency Curve5

- 19 Figure 5.5

. 16

. Price

- Efficiency Relationship f or Large Oil

- Fired Mechanical Draft Steam Commercial Packaged Boilers $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87%IncrementalPrice[$]

Thermal Efficiency [%] LOMDST Price

- Efficiency Curve5

- 20 REFERENCES

1

. Directory of Certified Product Performance , Air conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute. (Last accessed: 11 th November 2013) URL: https://www.ahridirectory.org/ahridirectory/pages/home.aspx