OCS Study MMS 2005-O61

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME II - APPENDICES

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their 

Variability for the Beaufort Sea – Fault Tree Method

MMS Contract Number 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

By

Bercha International Inc.

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

 U.S. Department of the Interior

 Minerals Management Service

 Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region 

 
OCS Study MMS 2005-O61

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME II - APPENDICES

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their 

Variability for the Beaufort Sea – Fault Tree Method

January, 2006

Principal Investigator: Dr. Frank G. Bercha, P.Eng. 

Bercha International Inc.

2926 Parkdale Boulevard N.W.

Calgary, Alberta, T2N 3S9, Canada

Email: berchaf@berchagroup.com

This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), 

Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, under Contract No.

1435-01-04-PO-336507, as part of the MMS Alaska Environmental Studies Program.

DISCLAIMER

The opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report or product are those of 

the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior, nor does 

mention of products constitute endorsement or recommendations for use by the Federal Government. 
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.1

APPENDICES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

T.0 Table of Contents..........................................................................Ap.1

F.0 Flow Chart...................................................................................Ap.8

APPENDIX TITLE

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.3 Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

T.1.4 Historical Spills Data - Pipeline - Variability

T.1.5 Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.6 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.7 Historical Spills Data - Platforms - Variability

T.1.8 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

T.1.9 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells - Variability

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 FTA Input Rationalization - Pipeline

T.2.2 Monte Carlo Input - Pipeline

T2.2A Pipeline Arctic Spills Summary

T.2.3 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

T.2.4 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

T.2.5 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

T.2.6 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

T.2.7 FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

T.2.8 Monte Carlo Input - Platforms

T2.8A Platforms Arctic Spills Summary

T.2.9 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

T.2.10 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

T.2.11 Monte Carlo Input - Wells

T.2.12 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Wells

T.2.13 Spill Volume Distributions

F.2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

F.2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

F.2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

F.2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

F.2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

T.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

T.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

T.3.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.2

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 1

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

T.4.1.14 Sale 1 - Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.15 Sale 1 - LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.16 Sale 1 - LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.17 Sale 1 - LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.18 Sale 1 - LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.19 Sale 1 - LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.20 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 1 - Year 2016

T.4.1.21 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 1 - LOF Average

F.4.1.1 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Sale 1 - Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Sale 1 - Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Sale 1 - Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Sale 1 - Spill Index - Wells

F.4.1.13 Spill Indicators - CDF- Sale 1 - Year 2016

F.4.1.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale 1

F.4.1.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale 1

F.4.1.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale 1

F.4.1.17 Spill Indicators - Sale 1 - Year 2016

F.4.1.18 Spill Indicators - Sale 1 - LOF Average
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.3

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 2

T.4.2.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

T.4.2.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

T.4.2.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

T.4.2.14 Sale 2 - Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.15 Sale 2 - LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.16 Sale 2 - LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.17 Sale 2 - LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.18 Sale 2 - LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.19 Sale 2 - LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.20 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 2 - Year 2016

T.4.2.21 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 2 - LOF Average

F.4.2.1 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Sale 2 - Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Sale 2 - Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Sale 2 - Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Sale 2 - Spill Index - Wells

F.4.2.13 Spill Indicators - CDF- Sale 2 - Year 2016

F.4.2.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale 2

F.4.2.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale 2

F.4.2.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale 2

F.4.2.17 Spill Indicators - Sale 2 - Year 2016

F.4.2.18 Spill Indicators - Sale 2 - LOF Average
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.4

4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 3

T.4.3.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline

T.4.3.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.3.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

T.4.3.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.3.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

T.4.3.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.3.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

T.4.3.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.3.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells

T.4.3.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.3.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

T.4.3.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

T.4.3.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

T.4.3.14 Sale 3 - Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.3.15 Sale 3 - LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.3.16 Sale 3 - LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Res ults

T.4.3.17 Sale 3 - LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.3.18 Sale 3 - LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.3.19 Sale 3 - LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.3.20 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 3 - Year 2016

T.4.3.21 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 3 - LOF Average

F.4.3.1 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency

F.4.3.2 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.3.3 Sale 3 - Spill Index

F.4.3.4 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.3.5 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.3.6 Sale 3 - Spill Index - P/L

F.4.3.7 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.3.8 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.3.9 Sale 3 - Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.3.10 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.3.11 Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.3.12 Sale 3 - Spill Index - Wells

F.4.3.13 Spill Indicators - CDF- Sale 3 - Year 2016

F.4.3.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale 3

F.4.3.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale 3

F.4.3.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale 3

F.4.3.17 Spill Indicators - Sale 3 - Year 2016

F.4.3.18 Spill Indicators - Sale 3 - LOF Average
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.5

4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale All

T.4.4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Pipeline

T.4.4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Platforms

T.4.4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Production Wells

T.4.4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Exploration Wells

T.4.4.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Development Wells

T.4.4.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Wells - Summary

T.4.4.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Summary

T.4.4.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Annual Summary

T.4.4.14 Sale All - Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.4.15 Sale All - LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.4.16 Sale All - LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.4.17 Sale All - LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.4.18 Sale All - LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.4.19 Sale All - LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.4.20 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All - Year 2016

T.4.4.21 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All - LOF Average

F.4.4.1 Sale All - Spill Frequency

F.4.4.2 Sale All - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4.3 Sale All - Spill Index

F.4.4.4 Sale All - Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4.5 Sale All - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4.6 Sale All - Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4.7 Sale All - Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4.8 Sale All - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4.9 Sale All - Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4.10 Sale All - Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4.11 Sale All - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4.12 Sale All - Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4.13 Spill Indicators - CDF- Sale All - Year 2016

F.4.4.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale All

F.4.4.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale All

F.4.4.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale All

F.4.4.17 Spill Indicators - Sale All - Year 2016

F.4.4.18 Spill Indicators - Sale All - LOF Average
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.6

4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale All non Arctic

T.4.5.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Pipeline

T.4.5.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.5.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Platforms

T.4.5.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Platforms - Summary

T.4.5.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Production Wells

T.4.5.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.5.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Exploration Wells

T.4.5.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.5.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Development Wells

T.4.5.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.5.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Wells - Summary

T.4.5.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Summary

T.4.5.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Annual Summary

T.4.5.14 Sale All non Arctic - Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.5.15 Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.5.16 Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.5.17 Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.5.18 Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.5.19 Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.5.20 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All non Arctic - Year 2016

T.4.5.21 Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

F.4.5.1 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency

F.4.5.2 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.5.3 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index

F.4.5.4 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.5.5 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.5.6 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index - P/L

F.4.5.7 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.5.8 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.5.9 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.5.10 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.5.11 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.5.12 Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index - Wells

F.4.5.13 Spill Indicators - CDF- Sale All non Arctic - Year 2016

F.4.5.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale All non Arctic

F.4.5.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale All non Arctic

F.4.5.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale All non Arctic

F.4.5.17 Spill Indicators - Sale All non Arctic - Year 2016

F.4.5.18 Spill Indicators - Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.7

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of spill indicators for all scenarios

T.5.2 Summary of development Scenarios for year 2020

F.5.1 LOF Spill indicators - by size

F.5.2 LOF Spill indicators - by size, Sale 1,2,3

F.5.3 LOF Spill indicators - by source

F.5.4 LOF Spill indicators - by source, Sale 1,2,3

F.5.5 Sale All Spill Frequency - Arctic and Non-Arctic

F.5.6 Sale All Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced - Arctic and Non-Arctic

F.5.7 Sale All Spill Index - Arctic and Non-Arctic
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

Ap.8

Figure F.0

Flow Chart

Fault Tree Analysis Hazard Scenarios Spill Occurrence

Spill Size

Frequency and Cause Arctic Spill Frequency Annual Annual 

Small Spill 50-99 bbl Shallow Water Depth <10 m Frequency

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m Frequency per bbl Produced

<10" Dia

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m Spill Index 

Medium Spill 100-999 bbl LOF Average Frequency

Pipeline

Large Spill 1000-9999 bbl LOF Av Freq per bbl Produced

Huge Spill >= 10000 bbl LOF Average Spill Index

>=10" Dia

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Large and Huge Spills

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Large Spill Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Spill 10000-149999 bbl

Spill >=150000 bbl

Development Well D.

Beaufort Sea

All Sales

Production Well

Exploration Well D.

Historical Data Analysis

Beaufort Sea

All Sales Non Arctic

Beaufort Sea

Sale 3

Platform

Beaufort Sea

Sale 2

Beaufort Sea

Sale 1

Facility
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 1

Historical Data Analysis
Table 1.1

Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S M L H SM LH

CORROSION 4 1 2 1 3 1

External 1 80 1 1

Internal 3 100 5000 414 2 1 2 1

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 16 2 5 6 3 7 9

Anchor Impact 10 19833 65 50 300 900 323 15576 2000 800 1211 2 4 2 2 6 4

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 1 3200 1 1

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 4000 100 14423 4569 4533 1 3 1 1 4

OPERATION IMPACT 4 3 1 3 1

Rig Anchoring 1 50 1 1

Work Boat Anchoring 3 50 5100 50 2 1 2 1

MECHANICAL 2 2 2

Connection Failure 1 135 1 1

Material Failure 1 210 1 1

NATURAL HAZARD 4 1 1 2 2 2

Mud Slide 3 250 80 8212 1 1 1 2 1

Storm/ Hurricane 1 3500 1 1

ARCTIC

Ice Gouging

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Other

UNKNOWN 1 119 1 1

TOTALS 31 7 11 10 3 18 13

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

NUMBER

OF SPILLS

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT101
Table 1.2

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

[km-years]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^5km-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

[km-years]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^5km-year

CORROSION 16.67 3 1.6027 7.69 1 0.5342

External 5.56 1 0.5342

Internal 11.11 2 1.0685 7.69 1 0.5342

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 7 3.7397 69.23 9 4.8081

Anchor Impact 33.33 6 3.2054 30.77 4 2.1369

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 1 0.5342

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 1 0.0534 30.77 4 2.1369

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 3 1.6027 7.69 1 0.5342

Rig Anchoring 5.56 1 0.5342

Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 2 1.0685 7.69 1 0.5342

MECHANICAL 11.11 2 1.0685

Connection Failure 5.56 1 0.5342

Material Failure 5.56 1 0.5342

NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 2 1.0685 15.38 2 1.0685

Mud Slide 11.11 2 1.0685 7.69 1 0.5342

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 1 0.5342

ARCTIC

Ice Gouging

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Other

UNKNOWN 5.56 1 0.5342

TOTALS 100.00 18 9.6163 100.00 13 6.9451

Large and Huge Spills

>=1000 bbl

187183 187183

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT102
Table 1.3

Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

Spill Statistics Exposure** Frequency

By Pipe Diameter

< 10" 16 105,336 15.1894

>= 10" 15 81,847 18.3270

By Spill Size

Small 50-99 bbl 6 187,183 3.2054

Medium 100 - 999 bbl 12 187,183 6.4108

Large 1000 - 9999 bbl 10 187,183 5.3424

Huge >=10000 bbl 3 187,183 1.6027

By Diameter, By Spill Size

< 10" Small 50-99 bbl 4 105,336 3.7974

Medium 100 - 999 bbl 7 105,336 6.6454

Large 1000 - 9999 bbl 4 105,336 3.7974

Huge >=10000 bbl 1 105,336 0.9493

>= 10" Small <100 bbl 2 81,847 2.4436

Medium 100 - 999 bbl 5 81,847 6.1090

Large 1000 - 9999 bbl 6 81,847 7.3308

Huge >=10000 bbl 2 81,847 2.4436

*14 of the 31 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to "0".

**Exposure comes from an analysis of PPL_MASTERS database as published on Feb 15, 2001. Ratio for <10"/>10"=1.287

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills, Categorized 1972-99

Number of Spills km-years spills per

10^5 km-years

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT103
Table 1.4

Historical Spills Data - Pipeline - Variability

Historical Low Mode High Expected

By Diameter, By Spill Size

<10" Small 0 2.57 3.7974 0 1.6329 9.7592 5.1720

Medium 0 2.57 6.6454 0 2.8575 17.0786 9.0510

Large 0 2.57 3.7974 0 1.6329 9.7592 5.1720

Huge 0 2.57 0.9493 0 0.4082 2.4398 1.2930

>=10" Small 0 2.57 2.4436 0 1.0507 6.2800 3.3282

Medium 0 2.57 6.1090 0 2.6269 15.7001 8.3205

Large 0 2.57 7.3308 0 3.1522 18.8401 9.9846

Huge 0 2.57 2.4436 0 1.0507 6.2800 3.3282

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills,

Categorized 1972-99

Frequency

spill per 10^5 km-years Low

Factor

High

Factor

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT104
Table 1.5

Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 S M L H SM LH

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 13 130 50 120 104 60 1456 125 50 50 55 400 280 75 6 6 1 12 1

STORAGE TANK RLS. 3 9935 7000 435 1 2 1 2

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 1 58 1 1

HURRICANE/STORM 2 75 66 2 2

COLLISION 2 600 108 2 2

ARCTIC

Ice Force

Facility Low Temperature

Other

TOTALS 21 9 9 3 18 3

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

NUMBER

OF SPILLS

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT105
Table 1.6

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

[well-years]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^4well-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSU

RE

[wellyears]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^4well-year

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 12 1.0024 33.33 1 0.0835

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 1 0.0835 66.67 2 0.1671

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 1 0.0835

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 2 0.1671

COLLISION 11.11 2 0.1671

ARCTIC

Ice Force

Facility Low Temperature

Other

TOTALS 100.00 18 1.5036 100.00 3 0.2506

119714

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

55-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

>=1000 bbl

119714

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT106
Table 1.7

Historical Spills Data - Platforms - Variability

spill per 10^4well-year 0 2.88 1.5036 0.0000 0.1804 4.3303 2.1571

spill per 10^4well-year 0 2.88 0.2506 0.0000 0.0301 0.7217 0.3595

Mode High Expected

Large and Huge Spills

>=1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Historical Low

Frequency

Unit

Low

Factor

High

Factor

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT107
Table 1.8

Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

PRODUCTION WELL

spills

per 104

well-year

0.15 1.03 1.18 0.44 0.29 1.91

EXPLORATION WELL

DRILLING

spills

per 104

wells

1.97 13.75 15.72 5.91 3.42 25.05

DEVELOPMENT WELL

DRILLING

spills

per 104

wells

0.65 4.57 5.22 1.96 1.96 9.15All spills

HISTORICAL FREQUENCY

Spills >=150000 bbl

EVENT

FREQUENCY UNIT

Small, Medium, and Large Spills

50-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

Spills 10000-149999 bbl

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT108
Table 1.9

Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells - Variability

Historical Low Mode High Expected

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 0.147 0.066 0.148 0.227 0.147

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 1.966 0.863 1.032 4.002 2.262

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 0.654 0.286 0.526 1.151 0.692

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 1.028 0.460 1.037 1.588 1.026

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 13.754 6.039 7.220 28.001 15.824

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 4.570 1.998 3.671 8.041 4.833

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 1.175 0.526 1.185 1.815 1.173

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 15.719 6.903 8.252 32.003 18.086

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 5.224 2.284 4.197 9.192 5.525

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 0.441 0.197 0.444 0.681 0.440

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 5.909 2.595 3.102 12.031 6.799

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 1.963 0.858 1.577 3.454 2.076

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 0.294 0.132 0.296 0.454 0.293

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 3.421 1.502 1.796 6.965 3.936

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 1.963 0.858 1.577 3.454 2.076

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

FREQUENCY

UNIT EVENT

Frequencies

Low

Factor

High

Factor

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small, Medium and Large Spills

50-9999 bbl

Spill 10000-149999 bbl

Spill >=150000 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT109
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 2

Fault Tree Analysis
Table 2.1

Fault Tree Analysis Input Rationalization - Pipeline

Shallow Medium Deep

External All (30) (30) (30) Low temperature and bio effects. Extra smart pigging.

Internal All (30) (30) (30) Extra smart pigging.

Anchor Impact All (50) (50) (50) Low traffic.

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (50) (50) (50) Low facility density.

Trawl/Fishing Net All (50) (60) (70) Low fishing activity. Less bottom fishing in deep water.

Rig Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) Low marine traffic during ice season (8 months).

Work Boat Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) Low work boat traffic during ice season (8 months). 

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (60) (50) (40) Gradient low. Mud slide potential (gradient) increases with water 

depth.

Storm/ Hurricane All (50) (50) (50) Fewer severe storms.

Expected Expected Expected

Mode Mode Mode

0.3495 0.2796

0.0680 0.0544

0.6178 0.4943

0.1210 0.0968

1.3438 1.0750

0.2610 0.2088

0.3762 0.3010

0.0730 0.0584

0.0021

0.0012

0.0038

0.0020

0.0082

0.0045

0.0023

0.0012

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0016 0.0016 0.0016

0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0881 0.0701 0.0002

0.0174 0.0137 0.0001

0.1557 0.1238 0.0003

0.0309 0.0244 0.0002

0.3386 0.2694 0.0006

0.0667 0.0525 0.0003

0.0948 0.0754 0.0002

0.0187 0.0147 0.0001

S

M

L

H

L

H

S

M

All water depth. The failure frequency is 10% of that of Strudel Scour.

To be assessed as 25% of above.

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

Other

Thaw Settlement

Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Only in shallow water. Average frequency of 4 scours/mile^2 and 100 

ft of bridge length with 10% conditional P/L failure probability. The 

same spill size distribution as above.

All water depth. The failure frequency is 20% of that of Strudel Scour.

Ice Gouging

Ice gouge failure rate calculated using exponential failure distribution 

for 2.5-m cover, 0.2-m average gouge depth, 4 gouges per km-yr 

flux. Spill size Distribution explained in text Section 2.5.2. Medium 

depth has 0.8 as many gouges as shallow.

S

M

L

H

Reason

Freq. Increment per 10^5 km-year

Spill 

Size

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Historical Expected Frequency Change %

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT201
Table 2.2

Monte Carlo Input - Pipeline

Min Mode Max Min Mode Max Min Mode Max

External All (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10)

Internal All (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10)

Anchor Impact All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

Trawl/Fishing Net All (90) (50) (10) (90) (60) (10) (90) (70) (10)

Rig Anchoring All (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10)

Work Boat Anchoring All (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10)

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (90) (60) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (40) (10)

Storm/ Hurricane All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0048 0.0544 0.6632

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0072 0.0968 1.1736

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0168 0.2088 2.5520

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0048 0.0584 0.7144

S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

S 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044

M 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078

L 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170

H 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048

S 0.00162 0.01738 0.20869 0.00123 0.01369 0.16613 0.00003 0.00009 0.00033

M 0.00246 0.03092 0.36929 0.00185 0.02435 0.29399 0.00005 0.00015 0.00059

L 0.00571 0.06670 0.80303 0.00431 0.05253 0.63928 0.00011 0.00033 0.00128

H 0.00163 0.01865 0.22480 0.00123 0.01469 0.17896 0.00003 0.00009 0.00036

Frequency Increment per 10^5 km-year

Ice Gouging

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Shallow Medium Deep

Spill Frequency Change %

Size

Other

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT202 Milan Cerovsek 04/01/2005
Table 2.2A

Pipeline Arctic Spills Summary

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

SMALL SPILLS 50-99 bbl 5.172 3.671 3.587 3.243 3.328 2.519 2.433 2.087

MEDIUM SPILLS 100-999 bbl 9.051 6.432 6.283 5.676 8.320 5.975 5.826 5.218

LARGE SPILLS 1000-9999 bbl 5.172 4.375 4.004 2.636 9.985 6.870 6.476 5.086

HUGE SPILLS =>10000 bbl 1.293 1.144 1.041 0.659 3.328 2.200 2.087 1.695

Arctic Frequency Pipeline Spill Size

Historical

Frequency

spills per

105km-year

Historical

Frequency

spills per

105km-year

P/L Dia <10"

Arctic Frequency

P/L Dia >=10"

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT202A
Table 2.3

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 16.67 0.862 (0.396) 0.466 12.70 (0.396) 0.466 13.00 (0.396) 0.466 14.38 0.555 (0.255) 0.300 11.91 (0.255) 0.300 12.33 (0.255) 0.300 14.38

External 5.56 0.287 (0.132) 0.155 4.23 (0.132) 0.155 4.33 (0.132) 0.155 4.79 0.185 (0.085) 0.100 3.97 (0.085) 0.100 4.11 (0.085) 0.100 4.79

Internal 11.11 0.575 (0.264) 0.311 8.47 (0.264) 0.311 8.67 (0.264) 0.311 9.58 0.370 (0.170) 0.200 7.94 (0.170) 0.200 8.22 (0.170) 0.200 9.58

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 2.011 (1.006) 1.006 27.40 (1.012) 1.000 27.87 (1.017) 0.994 30.64 1.294 (0.647) 0.647 25.69 (0.651) 0.643 26.44 (0.655) 0.640 30.64

Anchor Impact 33.33 1.724 (0.862) 0.862 23.48 (0.862) 0.862 24.03 (0.862) 0.862 26.58 1.109 (0.555) 0.555 22.02 (0.555) 0.555 22.80 (0.555) 0.555 26.57

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.287 (0.144) 0.144 3.91 (0.150) 0.138 3.84 (0.155) 0.132 4.07 0.185 (0.092) 0.092 3.67 (0.096) 0.089 3.64 (0.100) 0.085 4.07

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.862 (0.241) 0.621 16.92 (0.241) 0.621 17.32 (0.241) 0.621 19.15 0.555 (0.155) 0.400 15.86 (0.155) 0.400 16.43 (0.155) 0.400 19.15

Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.287 (0.080) 0.207 5.64 (0.080) 0.207 5.77 (0.080) 0.207 6.38 0.185 (0.052) 0.133 5.29 (0.052) 0.133 5.48 (0.052) 0.133 6.38

Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.575 (0.161) 0.414 11.28 (0.161) 0.414 11.54 (0.161) 0.414 12.77 0.370 (0.103) 0.266 10.58 (0.103) 0.266 10.95 (0.103) 0.266 12.76

MECHANICAL 11.11 0.575 0.575 15.66 0.575 16.02 0.575 17.72 0.370 0.370 14.68 0.370 15.20 0.370 17.72

Connection Failure 5.56 0.287 0.287 7.83 0.287 8.01 0.287 8.86 0.185 0.185 7.34 0.185 7.60 0.185 8.86

Material Failure 5.56 0.287 0.287 7.83 0.287 8.01 0.287 8.86 0.185 0.185 7.34 0.185 7.60 0.185 8.86

NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.575 (0.299) 0.275 7.50 (0.287) 0.287 8.01 (0.275) 0.299 9.23 0.370 (0.193) 0.177 7.04 (0.185) 0.185 7.60 (0.177) 0.193 9.23

Mud Slide 11.11 0.575 (0.299) 0.275 7.50 (0.287) 0.287 8.01 (0.275) 0.299 9.23 0.370 (0.193) 0.177 7.04 (0.185) 0.185 7.60 (0.177) 0.193 9.23

Storm/ Hurricane

ARCTIC 0.440 0.440 12.00 0.350 0.350 9.77 0.001 0.001 0.02 0.440 0.440 17.48 0.350 0.350 14.40 0.001 0.001 0.04

Ice Gouging 0.3495 0.3495 9.52 0.2796 0.2796 7.80 0.3495 0.3495 13.87 0.2796 0.2796 11.49

Strudel Scour 0.0021 0.0021 0.06 0.0021 0.0021 0.09

Upheaval Buckling 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02

Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01

Other 0.0881 0.0881 2.40 0.0701 0.0701 1.95 0.0002 0.0002 0.00 0.0881 0.0881 3.50 0.0701 0.0701 2.88 0.0002 0.0002 0.01

UNKNOWN 5.56 0.287 0.287 7.83 0.287 8.01 0.287 8.86 0.185 0.185 7.34 0.185 7.60 0.185 8.86

TOTALS 100.00 5.172 (1.501) 3.671 100.00 (1.585) 3.587 100.00 (1.929) 3.243 100.00 3.328 (0.809) 2.519 100.00 (0.895) 2.433 100.00 (1.241) 2.087 100.00

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

SMALL SPILLS 50-99 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium Deep

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT203
Table 2.4

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 16.67 1.509 (0.692) 0.816 12.69 (0.692) 0.816 12.99 (0.692) 0.816 14.38 1.387 (0.637) 0.750 12.55 (0.637) 0.750 12.88 (0.637) 0.750 14.38

External 5.56 0.503 (0.231) 0.272 4.23 (0.231) 0.272 4.33 (0.231) 0.272 4.79 0.462 (0.212) 0.250 4.18 (0.212) 0.250 4.29 (0.212) 0.250 4.79

Internal 11.11 1.006 (0.462) 0.544 8.46 (0.462) 0.544 8.66 (0.462) 0.544 9.58 0.924 (0.424) 0.500 8.37 (0.424) 0.500 8.58 (0.424) 0.500 9.58

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 3.520 (1.760) 1.760 27.36 (1.770) 1.749 27.85 (1.781) 1.739 30.64 3.236 (1.618) 1.618 27.08 (1.627) 1.608 27.61 (1.637) 1.599 30.64

Anchor Impact 33.33 3.017 (1.509) 1.509 23.45 (1.509) 1.509 24.01 (1.509) 1.509 26.58 2.773 (1.387) 1.387 23.21 (1.387) 1.387 23.80 (1.387) 1.387 26.58

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.503 (0.251) 0.251 3.91 (0.262) 0.241 3.84 (0.272) 0.231 4.07 0.462 (0.231) 0.231 3.87 (0.241) 0.222 3.80 (0.250) 0.212 4.07

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 1.509 (0.422) 1.087 16.90 (0.422) 1.087 17.30 (0.422) 1.087 19.15 1.387 (0.388) 0.999 16.72 (0.388) 0.999 17.15 (0.388) 0.999 19.15

Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.503 (0.141) 0.362 5.63 (0.141) 0.362 5.77 (0.141) 0.362 6.38 0.462 (0.129) 0.333 5.57 (0.129) 0.333 5.72 (0.129) 0.333 6.38

Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 1.006 (0.281) 0.725 11.27 (0.281) 0.725 11.53 (0.281) 0.725 12.77 0.924 (0.258) 0.666 11.15 (0.258) 0.666 11.43 (0.258) 0.666 12.77

MECHANICAL 11.11 1.006 1.006 15.64 1.006 16.01 1.006 17.72 0.924 0.924 15.47 0.924 15.87 0.924 17.72

Connection Failure 5.56 0.503 0.503 7.82 0.503 8.00 0.503 8.86 0.462 0.462 7.74 0.462 7.93 0.462 8.86

Material Failure 5.56 0.503 0.503 7.82 0.503 8.00 0.503 8.86 0.462 0.462 7.74 0.462 7.93 0.462 8.86

NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 1.006 (0.524) 0.482 7.49 (0.503) 0.503 8.00 (0.482) 0.524 9.23 0.924 (0.481) 0.443 7.42 (0.462) 0.462 7.93 (0.443) 0.481 9.23

Mud Slide 11.11 1.006 (0.524) 0.482 7.49 (0.503) 0.503 8.00 (0.482) 0.524 9.23 0.924 (0.481) 0.443 7.42 (0.462) 0.462 7.93 (0.443) 0.481 9.23

Storm/ Hurricane

ARCTIC 0.778 0.778 12.10 0.619 0.619 9.86 0.001 0.001 0.03 0.778 0.778 13.03 0.619 0.619 10.63 0.001 0.001 0.03

Ice Gouging 0.6178 0.6178 9.61 0.4943 0.4943 7.87 0.6178 0.6178 10.34 0.4943 0.4943 8.48

Strudel Scour 0.0038 0.0038 0.06 0.0038 0.0038 0.06

Upheaval Buckling 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01

Thaw Settlement 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01

Other 0.1557 0.1557 2.42 0.1238 0.1238 1.97 0.0003 0.0003 0.01 0.1557 0.1557 2.61 0.1238 0.1238 2.13 0.0003 0.0003 0.01

UNKNOWN 5.56 0.503 0.503 7.82 0.503 8.00 0.503 8.86 0.462 0.462 7.74 0.462 7.93 0.462 8.86

TOTALS 100.00 9.051 (2.619) 6.432 100.00 (2.768) 6.283 100.00 (3.375) 5.676 100.00 8.320 (2.345) 5.975 100.00 (2.495) 5.826 100.00 (3.103) 5.218 100.00

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

MEDIUM SPILLS 100-999 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT204
Table 2.5

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 7.69 0.398 (0.183) 0.215 4.92 (0.183) 0.215 5.38 (0.183) 0.215 8.16 0.768 (0.353) 0.415 6.05 (0.353) 0.415 6.42 (0.353) 0.415 8.17

External

Internal 7.69 0.398 (0.183) 0.215 4.92 (0.183) 0.215 5.38 (0.183) 0.215 8.16 0.768 (0.353) 0.415 6.05 (0.353) 0.415 6.42 (0.353) 0.415 8.17

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 3.581 (1.790) 1.790 40.92 (1.823) 1.757 43.89 (1.855) 1.725 65.44 6.912 (3.456) 3.456 50.31 (3.520) 3.393 52.38 (3.582) 3.330 65.48

Anchor Impact 30.77 1.591 (0.796) 0.796 18.19 (0.796) 0.796 19.87 (0.796) 0.796 30.18 3.072 (1.536) 1.536 22.36 (1.536) 1.536 23.72 (1.536) 1.536 30.20

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 4.55 (0.199) 0.199 4.97 (0.199) 0.199 7.55 0.768 (0.384) 0.384 5.59 (0.384) 0.384 5.93 (0.384) 0.384 7.55

Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 1.591 (0.796) 0.796 18.19 (0.829) 0.763 19.05 (0.861) 0.731 27.71 3.072 (1.536) 1.536 22.36 (1.600) 1.472 22.74 (1.662) 1.410 27.73

OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.398 (0.111) 0.287 6.55 (0.111) 0.287 7.16 (0.111) 0.287 10.87 0.768 (0.215) 0.553 8.05 (0.215) 0.553 8.54 (0.215) 0.553 10.88

Rig Anchoring

Work Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.398 (0.111) 0.287 6.55 (0.111) 0.287 7.16 (0.111) 0.287 10.87 0.768 (0.215) 0.553 8.05 (0.215) 0.553 8.54 (0.215) 0.553 10.88

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure

Material Failure

NATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.796 (0.406) 0.390 8.91 (0.398) 0.398 9.94 (0.390) 0.406 15.40 1.536 (0.784) 0.752 10.95 (0.768) 0.768 11.86 (0.752) 0.784 15.41

Mud Slide 7.69 0.398 (0.207) 0.191 4.36 (0.199) 0.199 4.97 (0.191) 0.207 7.86 0.768 (0.400) 0.368 5.36 (0.384) 0.384 5.93 (0.368) 0.400 7.86

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 4.55 (0.199) 0.199 4.97 (0.199) 0.199 7.55 0.768 (0.384) 0.384 5.59 (0.384) 0.384 5.93 (0.384) 0.384 7.55

ARCTIC 1.693 1.693 38.70 1.347 1.347 33.64 0.003 0.003 0.12 1.693 1.693 24.64 1.347 1.347 20.80 0.003 0.003 0.06

Ice Gouging 1.3438 1.3438 30.72 1.0750 1.0750 26.85 1.3438 1.3438 19.56 1.0750 1.0750 16.60

Strudel Scour 0.0082 0.0082 0.19 0.0082 0.0082 0.12

Upheaval Buckling 0.0016 0.0016 0.04 0.0016 0.0016 0.04 0.0016 0.0016 0.06 0.0016 0.0016 0.02 0.0016 0.0016 0.03 0.0016 0.0016 0.03

Thaw Settlement 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.02

Other 0.3386 0.3386 7.74 0.2694 0.2694 6.73 0.0006 0.0006 0.02 0.3386 0.3386 4.93 0.2694 0.2694 4.16 0.0006 0.0006 0.01

UNKNOWN

TOTALS 100.00 5.172 (0.797) 4.375 100.00 (1.168) 4.004 100.00 (2.536) 2.636 100.00 9.985 (3.114) 6.870 100.00 (3.508) 6.476 100.00 (4.898) 5.086 100.00

Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

LARGE SPILLS 1000-9999 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium Deep

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT205
Table 2.6

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 7.69 0.099 (0.046) 0.054 4.70 (0.046) 0.054 5.17 (0.046) 0.054 8.16 0.256 (0.118) 0.138 6.30 (0.118) 0.138 6.64 (0.118) 0.138 8.17

External

Internal 7.69 0.099 (0.046) 0.054 4.70 (0.046) 0.054 5.17 (0.046) 0.054 8.16 0.256 (0.118) 0.138 6.30 (0.118) 0.138 6.64 (0.118) 0.138 8.17

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 0.895 (0.448) 0.448 39.11 (0.456) 0.439 42.19 (0.464) 0.431 65.43 2.304 (1.152) 1.152 52.37 (1.173) 1.131 54.19 (1.194) 1.110 65.48

Anchor Impact 30.77 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 17.38 (0.199) 0.199 19.10 (0.199) 0.199 30.18 1.024 (0.512) 0.512 23.28 (0.512) 0.512 24.54 (0.512) 0.512 30.20

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.099 (0.050) 0.050 4.35 (0.050) 0.050 4.78 (0.050) 0.050 7.54 0.256 (0.128) 0.128 5.82 (0.128) 0.128 6.13 (0.128) 0.128 7.55

Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 17.38 (0.207) 0.191 18.31 (0.215) 0.183 27.71 1.024 (0.512) 0.512 23.28 (0.533) 0.491 23.52 (0.554) 0.470 27.73

OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.099 (0.028) 0.072 6.26 (0.028) 0.072 6.88 (0.028) 0.072 10.87 0.256 (0.072) 0.184 8.39 (0.072) 0.184 8.84 (0.072) 0.184 10.88

Rig Anchoring

Work Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.099 (0.028) 0.072 6.26 (0.028) 0.072 6.88 (0.028) 0.072 10.87 0.256 (0.072) 0.184 8.39 (0.072) 0.184 8.84 (0.072) 0.184 10.88

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure

Material Failure

NATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.199 (0.102) 0.097 8.51 (0.099) 0.099 9.55 (0.097) 0.102 15.40 0.512 (0.261) 0.251 11.40 (0.256) 0.256 12.27 (0.251) 0.261 15.41

Mud Slide 7.69 0.099 (0.052) 0.048 4.17 (0.050) 0.050 4.78 (0.048) 0.052 7.86 0.256 (0.133) 0.123 5.58 (0.128) 0.128 6.13 (0.123) 0.133 7.86

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.099 (0.050) 0.050 4.35 (0.050) 0.050 4.78 (0.050) 0.050 7.54 0.256 (0.128) 0.128 5.82 (0.128) 0.128 6.13 (0.128) 0.128 7.55

ARCTIC 0.474 0.474 41.42 0.377 0.377 36.21 0.001 0.001 0.13 0.474 0.474 21.55 0.377 0.377 18.07 0.001 0.001 0.05

Ice Gouging 0.3762 0.3762 32.87 0.3010 0.3010 28.90 0.3762 0.3762 17.10 0.3010 0.3010 14.42

Strudel Scour 0.0023 0.0023 0.20 0.0023 0.0023 0.10

Upheaval Buckling 0.0005 0.0005 0.04 0.0005 0.0005 0.04 0.0005 0.0005 0.07 0.0005 0.0005 0.02 0.0005 0.0005 0.02 0.0005 0.0005 0.03

Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.03 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01

Other 0.0948 0.0948 8.28 0.0754 0.0754 7.24 0.0002 0.0002 0.03 0.0948 0.0948 4.31 0.0754 0.0754 3.61 0.0002 0.0002 0.01

UNKNOWN

TOTALS 100.00 1.293 (0.149) 1.144 100.00 (0.252) 1.041 100.00 (0.634) 0.659 100.00 3.328 (1.128) 2.200 100.00 (1.241) 2.087 100.00 (1.633) 1.695 100.00

P/L Dia >=10"

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

HUGE SPILLS =>10000 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT206
Table 2.7

FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

Shallow Medium Deep

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (20) (20) (20) High safety factor, Monitoring Programs

HURRICANE/STORM All (50) (40) (30) Less severe storms. More intensity in deep water.

COLLISION All (50) (50) (50) Very low traffic density.

Expected Expected Expected

Mode Mode Mode

0.1447 0.2170 0.3256

0.0340 0.0510 0.0765

0.0255 0.0383 0.0575

0.0060 0.0090 0.0135

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0244 0.0316 0.0424

0.0134 0.0151 0.0177

0.0033 0.0046 0.0065

0.0014 0.0017 0.0022

Freq. Increment per 10^4 well-year

ARCTIC

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION Reason Spill 

Size

Historical Expected Frequency Change %

10% of sum of above. 

Assumed fraction of Historical Process Facilities release frequency with 6% for SM 

anfd 3% for LH spill sizes.

Ice Force

LH

SM

Assumed 10,000 year return period ice force causes spill 4% of occurences (96% 

reliability). 85% of the spills are SM.

Facility Low Temperature

LH

SM

Other

LH

SM

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT207
Table 2.8

Monte Carlo Input - Platforms

Min Mode Max Min Mode Max Min Mode Max

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10)

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10)

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (60) (20) (10) (60) (20) (10) (60) (20) (10)

HURRICANE/STORM All (90) (50) (10) (90) (40) (10) (90) (30) (10)

COLLISION All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

SM 0.003 0.034 0.340 0.005 0.051 0.510 0.008 0.077 0.765

LH 0.001 0.006 0.060 0.001 0.009 0.090 0.001 0.014 0.135

SM 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150

LH 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012

SM 0.005 0.013 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.066 0.006 0.018 0.092

LH 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.001 0.002 0.015

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

ARCTIC

Ice Force

Shallow

Spill 

Size

Medium Deep

Frequency Change %

Frequency Increment per 10^4 well-year

Facility Low Temperature

Other

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT208
Table 2.8A

Platforms Arctic Spill Summary

Shallow Medium Deep

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS 50-999 bbl 2.157 1.619 1.704 1.828

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS =>1000 bbl 0.360 0.274 0.288 0.309

Historical

Frequency

spills per

104km-year

Arctic Frequency

Platform Spill Size

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT208A
Table 2.9

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution % Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution % Frequency Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 1.438 (0.488) 0.950 58.65 (0.488) 0.950 55.74 (0.488) 0.950 51.96

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 0.120 (0.041) 0.079 4.89 (0.041) 0.079 4.65 (0.041) 0.079 4.33

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 0.120 (0.038) 0.082 5.04 (0.038) 0.082 4.79 (0.038) 0.082 4.46

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 0.240 (0.120) 0.120 7.40 (0.115) 0.125 7.33 (0.110) 0.130 7.09

COLLISION 11.11 0.240 (0.120) 0.120 7.40 (0.120) 0.120 7.03 (0.120) 0.120 6.56

ARCTIC 0.269 0.269 16.62 0.349 0.349 20.46 0.468 0.468 25.60

Ice Force 0.145 0.145 8.94 0.217 0.217 12.74 0.326 0.326 17.81

Facility Low Temperature 0.100 0.100 6.18 0.100 0.100 5.87 0.100 0.100 5.47

Other 0.024 0.024 1.51 0.032 0.032 1.86 0.042 0.042 2.32

TOTALS 100.00 2.157 (0.538) 1.619 100.00 (0.453) 1.704 100.00 (0.329) 1.828 100.00

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

4well-year

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS

50-999 bbl

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT209
Table 2.10

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution % Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution % Frequency Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 33.33 0.120 (0.041) 0.079 28.85 (0.041) 0.079 27.45 (0.041) 0.079 25.58

STORAGE TANK RLS. 66.67 0.240 (0.081) 0.158 57.70 (0.081) 0.158 54.89 (0.081) 0.158 51.16

STRUCTURAL FAILURE

HURRICANE/STORM

COLLISION

ARCTIC 0.037 0.037 13.44 0.051 0.051 17.66 0.072 0.072 23.27

Ice Force 0.026 0.026 9.31 0.038 0.038 13.28 0.057 0.057 18.57

Facility Low Temperature 0.008 0.008 2.92 0.008 0.008 2.77 0.008 0.008 2.59

Other 0.003 0.003 1.22 0.005 0.005 1.60 0.007 0.007 2.11

TOTALS 100.00 0.360 (0.085) 0.274 100.00 (0.071) 0.288 100.00 (0.050) 0.309 100.00

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

4well-year

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS

=>1000 bbl

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT210
Table 2.11

Monte Carlo Input - Wells

Shallow Medium Deep

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30)

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10)

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10)

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30)

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10)

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10)

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30)

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10)

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10)

FREQUENCY

UNIT EVENT Reason

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spill 10000-149999 bbl

Spill >=150000 bbl

Historical Expected Frequency 

Change %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT211
Table 2.12

Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Wells Frequency Change New Frequency Frequency Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.147 -0.044 0.103 -0.044 0.103 -0.044 0.103

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 2.262 -0.678 1.583 -0.452 1.809 -0.226 2.035

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.692 -0.208 0.484 -0.138 0.554 -0.069 0.623

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 1.026 -0.308 0.718 -0.308 0.718 -0.308 0.718

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 15.824 -4.747 11.077 -3.165 12.659 -1.582 14.242

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 4.833 -1.450 3.383 -0.967 3.867 -0.483 4.350

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.440 -0.132 0.308 -0.132 0.308 -0.132 0.308

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 6.799 -2.040 4.759 -1.360 5.439 -0.680 6.119

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 2.076 -0.623 1.453 -0.415 1.661 -0.208 1.868

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.293 -0.088 0.205 -0.088 0.205 -0.088 0.205

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 3.936 -1.181 2.755 -0.787 3.149 -0.394 3.543

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 2.076 -0.623 1.453 -0.415 1.661 -0.208 1.868 HISTORICAL FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium Deep

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 10000-149999 bbl

Spills >=150000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

EVENT FREQUENCY UNIT

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT212
Table 2.13

Spill Volume Distributions

Spill Size

Spill Expectation Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected

P/L Dia <10" Spill 50 58 99 71 100 226 999 485 1000 4436 9999 5279 10000 14423 20000 14880

P/L Dia > 10" Spill 50 58 99 71 100 387 999 516 1000 3932 9999 5176 10000 17705 20000 15552

Spill Size

Spill Expectation Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected

Platform Spill 50 158 999 452 1000 6130 10000 5631

Spill Size

Spill Expectation Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected

Well Spill 50 500 999 519 1000 4500 9999 5292 10000 20000 150000 68349 150000 200000 250000 200000

PIPELINE SPILL VOLUMES

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Spills 10000-149999 bbl Spills =>150000 bbl Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

PLATFORM SPILL VOLUMES

WELL SPILL VOLUMES

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT213
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 5.172 3.328 Historical Frequency

S 3.671 2.519 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 3.587 2.433 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 3.243 2.087 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.862 0.555 H 2.011 1.294 H 0.862 0.555 H 0.575 0.370 H 0.575 0.370 H 0.287 0.185 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.466 0.300 S 1.006 0.647 S 0.621 0.400 S 0.575 0.370 S 0.275 0.177 S 0.287 0.185 S 0.440 0.440

M 0.466 0.300 M 1.000 0.643 M 0.621 0.400 M 0.575 0.370 M 0.287 0.185 M 0.287 0.185 M 0.350 0.350

D 0.466 0.300 D 0.994 0.640 D 0.621 0.400 D 0.575 0.370 D 0.299 0.193 D 0.287 0.185 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.287 0.185 H 1.724 1.109 H 0.287 0.185 H 0.287 0.185 H 0.575 0.370 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.155 0.100 S 0.862 0.555 S 0.207 0.133 S 0.287 0.185 S 0.275 0.177 S 0.349 0.349 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.155 0.100 M 0.862 0.555 M 0.207 0.133 M 0.287 0.185 M 0.287 0.185 M 0.280 0.280 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.155 0.100 D 0.862 0.555 D 0.207 0.133 D 0.287 0.185 D 0.299 0.193 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.575 0.370 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.575 0.370 H 0.287 0.185 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.311 0.200 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.414 0.266 S 0.287 0.185 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.002 0.002 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.311 0.200 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.414 0.266 M 0.287 0.185 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.311 0.200 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.414 0.266 D 0.287 0.185 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.287 0.185 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.144 0.092 S 0.088 0.088

M 0.138 0.089 M 0.070 0.070

D 0.132 0.085 D 0.000 0.000

Figure 2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Small Spill 50-99 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF21 04/01/2005
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 9.051 8.320 Historical Frequency

S 6.432 5.975 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 6.283 5.826 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 5.676 5.218 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 1.509 1.387 H 3.520 3.236 H 1.509 1.387 H 1.006 0.924 H 1.006 0.924 H 0.503 0.462 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.816 0.750 S 1.760 1.618 S 1.087 0.999 S 1.006 0.924 S 0.482 0.443 S 0.503 0.462 S 0.778 0.778

M 0.816 0.750 M 1.749 1.608 M 1.087 0.999 M 1.006 0.924 M 0.503 0.462 M 0.503 0.462 M 0.619 0.619

D 0.816 0.750 D 1.739 1.599 D 1.087 0.999 D 1.006 0.924 D 0.524 0.481 D 0.503 0.462 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.503 0.462 H 3.017 2.773 H 0.503 0.462 H 0.503 0.462 H 1.006 0.924 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.272 0.250 S 1.509 1.387 S 0.362 0.333 S 0.503 0.462 S 0.482 0.443 S 0.618 0.618 S 0.001 0.001

M 0.272 0.250 M 1.509 1.387 M 0.362 0.333 M 0.503 0.462 M 0.503 0.462 M 0.494 0.494 M 0.001 0.001

D 0.272 0.250 D 1.509 1.387 D 0.362 0.333 D 0.503 0.462 D 0.524 0.481 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 1.006 0.924 H 0.000 0.000 H 1.006 0.924 H 0.503 0.462 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.544 0.500 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.725 0.666 S 0.503 0.462 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.004 0.004 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.544 0.500 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.725 0.666 M 0.503 0.462 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.544 0.500 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.725 0.666 D 0.503 0.462 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.503 0.462 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.251 0.231 S 0.156 0.156

M 0.241 0.222 M 0.124 0.124

D 0.231 0.212 D 0.000 0.000

Figure 2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Medium Spill 100 - 999 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF22 04/01/2005
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 5.172 9.985 Historical Frequency

S 4.375 6.870 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 4.004 6.476 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 2.636 5.086 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.398 0.768 H 3.581 6.912 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.796 1.536 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.215 0.415 S 1.790 3.456 S 0.287 0.553 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.390 0.752 S 0.000 0.000 S 1.693 1.693

M 0.215 0.415 M 1.757 3.393 M 0.287 0.553 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.398 0.768 M 0.000 0.000 M 1.347 1.347

D 0.215 0.415 D 1.725 3.330 D 0.287 0.553 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.406 0.784 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.003 0.003

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.000 0.000 H 1.591 3.072 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.796 1.536 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.191 0.368 S 1.344 1.344 S 0.002 0.002

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.796 1.536 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.199 0.384 M 1.075 1.075 M 0.002 0.002

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.796 1.536 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.207 0.400 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.002 0.002

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.398 0.768 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.215 0.415 S 0.199 0.384 S 0.287 0.553 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.199 0.384 S 0.008 0.008 S 0.001 0.001

M 0.215 0.415 M 0.199 0.384 M 0.287 0.553 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.199 0.384 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.001 0.001

D 0.215 0.415 D 0.199 0.384 D 0.287 0.553 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.199 0.384 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 1.591 3.072 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.796 1.536 S 0.339 0.339

M 0.763 1.472 M 0.269 0.269

D 0.731 1.410 D 0.001 0.001

Figure 2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Large Spill 1000-9999 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF23 04/01/2005
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 1.293 3.328 Historical Frequency

S 1.144 2.200 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.041 2.087 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.659 1.695 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.099 0.256 H 0.895 2.304 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.199 0.512 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.054 0.138 S 0.448 1.152 S 0.072 0.184 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.097 0.251 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.474 0.474

M 0.054 0.138 M 0.439 1.131 M 0.072 0.184 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.099 0.256 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.377 0.377

D 0.054 0.138 D 0.431 1.110 D 0.072 0.184 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.102 0.261 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>10" Dia<10" Dia>10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.398 1.024 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.199 0.512 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.048 0.123 S 0.376 0.376 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.199 0.512 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.050 0.128 M 0.301 0.301 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.199 0.512 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.052 0.133 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.099 0.256 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.054 0.138 S 0.050 0.128 S 0.072 0.184 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.050 0.128 S 0.002 0.002 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.054 0.138 M 0.050 0.128 M 0.072 0.184 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.050 0.128 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.054 0.138 D 0.050 0.128 D 0.072 0.184 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.050 0.128 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.398 1.024 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.199 0.512 S 0.095 0.095

M 0.191 0.491 M 0.075 0.075

D 0.183 0.470 D 0.000 0.000

Figure 2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Huge Spill =>10000 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF24 04/01/2005
SM

50-999

bbl

LH

=>1000

bbl

Spill Size

Note : All Values per 10000 well-years H 2.157 0.360 Historical Frequency

S 1.619 0.274 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.704 0.288 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.828 0.309 Deep Water Depth Frequency

SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH

H 1.438 0.120 H 0.120 0.240 H 0.120 0.000 H 0.240 0.000 H 0.240 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.950 0.079 S 0.079 0.158 S 0.082 0.000 S 0.120 0.000 S 0.120 0.000 S 0.269 0.037

M 0.950 0.079 M 0.079 0.158 M 0.082 0.000 M 0.125 0.000 M 0.120 0.000 M 0.349 0.051

D 0.950 0.079 D 0.079 0.158 D 0.082 0.000 D 0.130 0.000 D 0.120 0.000 D 0.468 0.072

SM LH

H 0.000 0.000

S 0.145 0.026

M 0.217 0.038

D 0.326 0.057

SM LH

H 0.000 0.000

S 0.100 0.008

M 0.100 0.008

D 0.100 0.008

SM LH

H 0.000 0.000

S 0.024 0.003

M 0.032 0.005

D 0.042 0.007

Figure 2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

PROCESS FACILITY RLS.

Facility Low Temperature

STORAGE TANK RLS. STRUCTURAL FAILURE HURRICANE/STORM COLLISION ARCTIC

Platform Spill

Other

Ice Force

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF25 04/01/2005
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 3

Hazard Scenarios
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 7.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 7.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 15.7

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 15.7

Shallow 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 23.6

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 23.6

Shallow 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 31.5

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 31.5

Shallow 2 46 22 20 20 28.7

Medium 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Deep

Total 1 3 3 49 3 25 1 20 20 28.7

Shallow 2 46 22 10 30 10 30 26.4

Medium 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 13.2

Deep

Total 3 10 59 4 29 1 20 40 20 40 39.6

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 21.8

Medium 1 10 23 4 11 1 10 10 22.0

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 40 40 43.8

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 18.0

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 22.0

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 40.0

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 14.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 22.0

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 36.8

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 12.3

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 22.0

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 34.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 10.1

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 18.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 29.0

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 8.4

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 16.3

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 24.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 6.9

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 14.0

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 20.9

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells

2012

2013

2014

2015

2008

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

2007

2004

2005

2006

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT301
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 5.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 12.0

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 17.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 4.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 10.3

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 15.0

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 2.3

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 8.9

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 30 -10 30 11.2

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 1.9

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 7.7

Deep

Total 2 46 22 30 30 9.6

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -10 10 -10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 6.6

Deep

Total -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 6.6

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 5.7

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 5.7

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 4.9

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 4.9

Shallow -10 -10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 4.2

Deep

Total 1 23 11 -10 10 -10 10 4.2

Shallow

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.6

Deep

Total 1 23 11 10 10 3.6

Shallow

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.1

Deep

Total 1 23 11 10 10 3.1

Shallow

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 2.7

Deep

Total 1 23 11 10 10 2.7

Shallow

Medium -1 -23 -11 -10 -10

Deep

Total -1 -23 -11 -10 -10

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT301
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Medium 1 1

Deep 1 1

Total 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 7.9

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 7.9

Shallow 1 10 23 4 11 1 10 10 15.7

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 23 4 11 1 10 10 15.7

Shallow 1 23 11 10 10 15.7

Medium

Deep

Total 1 23 11 10 10 15.7

Shallow 1 23 11 10 10 15.7

Medium 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Deep

Total 1 2 3 26 3 14 1 10 10 15.7

Shallow 1 23 11 10 20 10 20 13.0

Medium 1 2 13 16 7 10 2 5 5 15 15 20 20 21.5

Deep

Total 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 25 35 30 40 34.5

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 10.7

Medium 2 20 36 8 18 2 5 15 20 28.6

Deep

Total 3 20 59 8 29 2 5 35 40 39.3

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 8.8

Medium 2 10 46 4 22 1 5 15 20 28.6

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 5 35 40 37.4

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 7.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 28.6

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 35.9

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 6.0

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 28.6

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 34.6

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 5.0

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 28.6

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 33.6

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT302
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth Year ProductionMMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 4.1

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 25.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 29.3

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 3.4

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 22.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 25.6

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 2.8

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 19.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 22.3

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 2.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 17.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 19.5

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 1.9

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 15.1

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 17.0

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 5 -15 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 13.3

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 5 -15 20 -15 25 13.3

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 11.7

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 11.7

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 10.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 10.3

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 9.1

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 9.1

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 8.0

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 8.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 7.0

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 7.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 6.2

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 6.2

Shallow 5 5

Medium 2 46 22 5 15 20 5.4

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.4

Shallow -5 -5

Medium -2 -46 -22 -5 -10 5 -15 5 4.8

Deep

Total -2 -46 -22 -5 -15 5 -20 5

Shallow

Medium 5 5

Deep

Total 5 5

Shallow

Medium 5 5

Deep

Total 5 5

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT302
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1 4 4 4 4 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 1

Shallow 15 15 15 15

Medium 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 15 15 20 20 30.8

Deep

Total 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 30 30 35 35 30.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 30 35 38.6

2019

2020

2021

2022

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" WaterDepth

2016

2017

2018

Exploration

Wells

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells Sum >=10"

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT303
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 34.0

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 34.0

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 29.9

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 29.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 26.3

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 26.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 23.2

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 23.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 20.4

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 20.4

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 17.9

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 17.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 15.8

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 15.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 13.9

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 13.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 12.2

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 12.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 10.8

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 10.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 9.5

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 9.5

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 8.3

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium2 68 345 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total2 68 345 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT303
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2 2

Shallow 1 2 3

Medium 1

Deep

Total 2 2 3

Shallow 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Shallow 1 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 7.9

Medium 1 2 2

Deep

Total 2 2 3 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 7.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 15.7

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 15.7

Shallow 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 23.6

Medium 2 2

Deep 1 1

Total 3 3 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 23.6

Shallow 3 20 59 8 29 2 10 30 10 30 39.4

Medium 1 3 2

Deep 1 1

Total 2 3 3 3 20 59 8 29 2 10 30 10 30 39.4

Shallow 3 10 69 4 33 1 30 30 44.4

Medium 4 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 1

Deep

Total 4 2 1 4 13 72 7 36 2 30 30 44.4

Shallow 3 69 33 10 40 10 40 42.1

Medium 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 13.2

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 4 10 82 4 40 1 20 50 20 50 55.3

Shallow 3 69 33 40 40 37.5

Medium 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 22.0

Deep

Total 1 5 13 95 7 47 2 50 50 59.5

Shallow 3 69 33 10 50 10 50 31.0

Medium 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 15 25 20 30 43.5

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 6 13 108 7 54 2 5 5 25 75 30 80 74.5

Shallow 3 69 33 50 50 25.5

Medium 1 4 24 63 12 33 3 5 25 30 50.6

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 7 24 132 12 66 3 5 75 80 76.1

Shallow 3 69 33 15 65 15 65 21.1

Medium 1 5 24 87 12 45 3 5 10 15 40 20 50 81.4

Deep

Total 1 8 24 156 12 78 3 5 10 30 105 35 115 102.5

Shallow 3 69 33 65 65 17.4

Medium 5 20 107 8 53 2 10 40 50 86.1

Deep

Total 8 20 176 8 86 2 10 105 115 103.5

Shallow 3 69 33 65 65 14.4

Medium 5 20 127 9 62 2 10 40 50 83.5

Deep

Total 8 20 196 9 95 2 10 105 115 97.9

Shallow 3 69 33 65 65 11.9

Medium 5 10 137 5 67 1 10 40 50 81.2

Deep

Total 8 10 206 5 100 1 10 105 115 93.1

2019

2020

2021

2022

2015

2016

2017

2018

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

Sum All

2008

2009

Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT304
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Year Sum All Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Shallow 3 69 33 65 65 9.8

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 75.8

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 85.6

Shallow 3 69 33 65 65 8.1

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 71.1

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 79.2

Shallow -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 55 -10 55 5.1

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 62.4

Deep

Total -1 7 -23 183 -11 89 10 -10 95 -10 105 67.5

Shallow 2 46 22 55 55 4.2

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 54.8

Deep

Total 7 183 89 10 95 105 59.0

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 45 -10 45 1.9

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 48.0

Deep

Total -1 6 -23 160 -11 78 10 -10 85 -10 95 49.9

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 30 -15 30

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 42.2

Deep

Total -1 5 -23 137 -11 67 10 -15 70 -15 80 42.2

Shallow 30 30

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 37.0

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 70 80 37.0

Shallow -10 20 -10 20

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 32.4

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 -10 60 -10 70 32.4

Shallow 20 20

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 28.5

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 60 70 28.5

Shallow 20 20

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 25.0

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 60 70 25.0

Shallow 20 20

Medium 5 137 67 10 40 50 21.9

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 60 70 21.9

Shallow 20 20

Medium -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -10 30 -10 40 17.0

Deep

Total -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -10 50 -10 60 17.0

Shallow 20 20

Medium 4 114 56 10 30 40 14.9

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 14.9

Shallow -5 15 -5 15

Medium -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -10 20 -15 25 13.1

Deep

Total -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -15 35 -20 40 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 20 25 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 35 40 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 20 25 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 35 40 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT304
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Beaufort Sea Sale 1
Table 4.1.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.811 0.06 1.923 0.99 2.211 11.44 0.708 11.01

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.811 0.06 1.923 0.99 2.211 11.44 0.708 11.01

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.811 0.06 1.923 0.99 2.211 11.44 0.708 11.01

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Water 

Depth

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2015

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2014

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4101
Table 4.1.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 40 1.607 0.11 3.822 1.97 4.358 22.56 1.398 21.74

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 30 1.202 0.09 2.860 1.48 3.253 16.84 1.044 16.23

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 30 1.202 0.09 2.860 1.48 3.253 16.84 1.044 16.23

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.797 0.06 1.899 0.98 2.147 11.11 0.690 10.73

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.797 0.06 1.899 0.98 2.147 11.11 0.690 10.73

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.797 0.06 1.899 0.98 2.147 11.11 0.690 10.73

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.391 0.03 0.937 0.48 1.042 5.39 0.336 5.22

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.391 0.03 0.937 0.48 1.042 5.39 0.336 5.22

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.391 0.03 0.937 0.48 1.042 5.39 0.336 5.22

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.391 0.03 0.937 0.48 1.042 5.39 0.336 5.22

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

2026

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4101
Table 4.1.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 7.9 0.405 0.051 0.029 0.961 0.122 0.496 1.367 0.173 0.525 1.105 0.140 5.721 0.354 0.045 5.504 1.459 0.185 11.226 2.826 0.358 11.751

2011 15.7 0.405 0.026 0.029 0.961 0.061 0.496 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 1.459 0.093 11.226 2.826 0.180 11.751

2012 23.6 0.811 0.034 0.058 1.923 0.081 0.992 2.734 0.116 1.050 2.211 0.094 11.443 0.708 0.030 11.009 2.919 0.124 22.451 5.652 0.240 23.501

2013 31.5 0.811 0.026 0.058 1.923 0.061 0.992 2.734 0.087 1.050 2.211 0.070 11.443 0.708 0.022 11.009 2.919 0.093 22.451 5.652 0.179 23.501

2014 28.7 0.811 0.028 0.058 1.923 0.067 0.992 2.734 0.095 1.050 2.211 0.077 11.443 0.708 0.025 11.009 2.919 0.102 22.451 5.652 0.197 23.501

2015 39.6 1.607 0.041 0.114 3.822 0.097 1.972 5.429 0.137 2.086 4.358 0.110 22.557 1.398 0.035 21.735 5.756 0.145 44.292 11.185 0.282 46.379

2016 43.8 1.607 0.037 0.114 3.822 0.087 1.972 5.429 0.124 2.086 4.358 0.100 22.557 1.398 0.032 21.735 5.756 0.131 44.292 11.185 0.255 46.379

2017 40.0 1.607 0.040 0.114 3.822 0.096 1.972 5.429 0.136 2.086 4.358 0.109 22.557 1.398 0.035 21.735 5.756 0.144 44.292 11.185 0.280 46.379

2018 36.8 1.607 0.044 0.114 3.822 0.104 1.972 5.429 0.148 2.086 4.358 0.118 22.557 1.398 0.038 21.735 5.756 0.156 44.292 11.185 0.304 46.379

2019 34.3 1.607 0.047 0.114 3.822 0.111 1.972 5.429 0.158 2.086 4.358 0.127 22.557 1.398 0.041 21.735 5.756 0.168 44.292 11.185 0.326 46.379

2020 29.0 1.607 0.055 0.114 3.822 0.132 1.972 5.429 0.187 2.086 4.358 0.150 22.557 1.398 0.048 21.735 5.756 0.198 44.292 11.185 0.386 46.379

2021 24.7 1.607 0.065 0.114 3.822 0.155 1.972 5.429 0.220 2.086 4.358 0.176 22.557 1.398 0.057 21.735 5.756 0.233 44.292 11.185 0.453 46.379

2022 20.9 1.607 0.077 0.114 3.822 0.183 1.972 5.429 0.260 2.086 4.358 0.209 22.557 1.398 0.067 21.735 5.756 0.275 44.292 11.185 0.535 46.379

2023 17.7 1.607 0.091 0.114 3.822 0.216 1.972 5.429 0.307 2.086 4.358 0.246 22.557 1.398 0.079 21.735 5.756 0.325 44.292 11.185 0.632 46.379

2024 15.0 1.607 0.107 0.114 3.822 0.255 1.972 5.429 0.362 2.086 4.358 0.291 22.557 1.398 0.093 21.735 5.756 0.384 44.292 11.185 0.746 46.379

2025 11.2 1.202 0.107 0.086 2.860 0.255 1.476 4.062 0.363 1.561 3.253 0.290 16.836 1.044 0.093 16.231 4.297 0.384 33.067 8.359 0.746 34.628

2026 9.6 1.202 0.125 0.086 2.860 0.298 1.476 4.062 0.423 1.561 3.253 0.339 16.836 1.044 0.109 16.231 4.297 0.448 33.067 8.359 0.871 34.628

2027 6.6 0.797 0.121 0.057 1.899 0.288 0.980 2.696 0.408 1.036 2.147 0.325 11.115 0.690 0.105 10.726 2.837 0.430 21.841 5.533 0.838 22.877

2028 5.7 0.797 0.140 0.057 1.899 0.333 0.980 2.696 0.473 1.036 2.147 0.377 11.115 0.690 0.121 10.726 2.837 0.498 21.841 5.533 0.971 22.877

2029 4.9 0.797 0.163 0.057 1.899 0.388 0.980 2.696 0.550 1.036 2.147 0.438 11.115 0.690 0.141 10.726 2.837 0.579 21.841 5.533 1.129 22.877

2030 4.2 0.391 0.093 0.028 0.937 0.223 0.484 1.329 0.316 0.512 1.042 0.248 5.393 0.336 0.080 5.222 1.378 0.328 10.615 2.707 0.644 11.127

2031 3.6 0.391 0.109 0.028 0.937 0.260 0.484 1.329 0.369 0.512 1.042 0.289 5.393 0.336 0.093 5.222 1.378 0.383 10.615 2.707 0.752 11.127

2032 3.1 0.391 0.126 0.028 0.937 0.302 0.484 1.329 0.429 0.512 1.042 0.336 5.393 0.336 0.108 5.222 1.378 0.444 10.615 2.707 0.873 11.127

2033 2.7 0.391 0.145 0.028 0.937 0.347 0.484 1.329 0.492 0.512 1.042 0.386 5.393 0.336 0.124 5.222 1.378 0.510 10.615 2.707 1.002 11.127

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Total

 LOF 460.8 25.677 2 61.075 32 86.752 33 69.543 360 22.307 347 91.850 707 178.602 740

Average LOF 0.856 0.056 0 2.036 0.133 1 2.892 0.188 1 2.318 0.151 12 0.744 0.048 12 3.062 0.199 24 5.953 0.388 25

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4102
Table 4.1.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1 3 1.619 0.486 0.22 0.274 0.082 0.46

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 3 0.486 0.22 0.082 0.46

Shallow 1 13 1.619 2.105 0.95 0.274 0.357 2.01

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 13 2.105 0.95 0.357 2.01

Shallow 2 26 1.619 4.210 1.90 0.274 0.713 4.02

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 26 4.210 1.90 0.713 4.02

Shallow 2 36 1.619 5.829 2.63 0.274 0.987 5.56

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 36 5.829 2.63 0.987 5.56

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.448 3.37 1.262 7.11

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 3 1.704 0.511 0.23 0.288 0.087 0.49

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 49 7.959 3.60 1.348 7.59

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 13 1.704 2.215 1.00 0.288 0.375 2.11

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 59 9.663 4.37 1.637 9.22

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4103
Table 4.1.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.366 5.14 1.925 10.84

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.642 3.45 1.294 7.29

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.642 3.45 1.294 7.29

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 23 1.704 3.918 1.77 0.288 0.663 3.73

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.918 1.77 0.663 3.73

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4103
Table 4.1.4

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.486 0.220 0.082 0.463 0.082 0.463 0.568 0.683

2010 7.9 2.105 0.266 0.951 0.357 0.045 2.008 0.357 0.045 2.008 2.461 0.312 2.959

2011 15.7 4.210 0.268 1.902 0.713 0.045 4.016 0.713 0.045 4.016 4.923 0.314 5.918

2012 23.6 5.829 0.247 2.634 0.987 0.042 5.560 0.987 0.042 5.560 6.816 0.289 8.195

2013 31.5 7.448 0.236 3.366 1.262 0.040 7.105 1.262 0.040 7.105 8.710 0.277 10.471

2014 28.7 7.959 0.277 3.597 1.348 0.047 7.592 1.348 0.047 7.592 9.307 0.324 11.189

2015 39.6 9.663 0.244 4.367 1.637 0.041 9.216 1.637 0.041 9.216 11.299 0.285 13.583

2016 43.8 11.366 0.260 5.137 1.925 0.044 10.839 1.925 0.044 10.839 13.291 0.303 15.976

2017 40.0 11.366 0.284 5.137 1.925 0.048 10.839 1.925 0.048 10.839 13.291 0.332 15.976

2018 36.8 11.366 0.309 5.137 1.925 0.052 10.839 1.925 0.052 10.839 13.291 0.361 15.976

2019 34.3 11.366 0.331 5.137 1.925 0.056 10.839 1.925 0.056 10.839 13.291 0.388 15.976

2020 29.0 11.366 0.392 5.137 1.925 0.066 10.839 1.925 0.066 10.839 13.291 0.458 15.976

2021 24.7 11.366 0.460 5.137 1.925 0.078 10.839 1.925 0.078 10.839 13.291 0.538 15.976

2022 20.9 11.366 0.544 5.137 1.925 0.092 10.839 1.925 0.092 10.839 13.291 0.636 15.976

2023 17.7 11.366 0.642 5.137 1.925 0.109 10.839 1.925 0.109 10.839 13.291 0.751 15.976

2024 15.0 11.366 0.758 5.137 1.925 0.128 10.839 1.925 0.128 10.839 13.291 0.886 15.976

2025 11.2 7.642 0.682 3.454 1.294 0.116 7.287 1.294 0.116 7.287 8.936 0.798 10.741

2026 9.6 7.642 0.796 3.454 1.294 0.135 7.287 1.294 0.135 7.287 8.936 0.931 10.741

2027 6.6 3.918 0.594 1.771 0.663 0.100 3.734 0.663 0.100 3.734 4.582 0.694 5.505

2028 5.7 3.918 0.687 1.771 0.663 0.116 3.734 0.663 0.116 3.734 4.582 0.804 5.505

2029 4.9 3.918 0.800 1.771 0.663 0.135 3.734 0.663 0.135 3.734 4.582 0.935 5.505

2030 4.2 3.918 0.933 1.771 0.663 0.158 3.734 0.663 0.158 3.734 4.582 1.091 5.505

2031 3.6 3.918 1.088 1.771 0.663 0.184 3.734 0.663 0.184 3.734 4.582 1.273 5.505

2032 3.1 3.918 1.264 1.771 0.663 0.214 3.734 0.663 0.214 3.734 4.582 1.478 5.505

2033 2.7 3.918 1.451 1.771 0.663 0.246 3.734 0.663 0.246 3.734 4.582 1.697 5.505

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Total

 LOF 460.8 182.711 83 30.941 174 30.941 174 213.652 257

Average LOF 6.090 0.397 3 1.031 0.067 6 1.031 0.067 6 7.122 0.464 9

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4104
Table 4.1.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 3 0.103 0.031 0.02 0.718 0.215 1.14 0.308 0.092 6.31 0.205 0.062 12.31

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 3 0.031 0.02 0.215 1.14 0.092 6.31 0.062 12.31

Shallow 13 0.103 0.133 0.07 0.718 0.934 4.94 0.308 0.400 27.35 0.205 0.267 53.36

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 13 0.133 0.07 0.934 4.94 0.400 27.35 0.267 53.36

Shallow 26 0.103 0.267 0.14 0.718 1.868 9.88 0.308 0.800 54.71 0.205 0.534 106.72

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 26 0.267 0.14 1.868 9.88 0.800 54.71 0.534 106.72

Shallow 36 0.103 0.369 0.19 0.718 2.586 13.68 0.308 1.108 75.75 0.205 0.739 147.76

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 36 0.369 0.19 2.586 13.68 1.108 75.75 0.739 147.76

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 3 0.103 0.031 0.02 0.718 0.215 1.14 0.308 0.092 6.31 0.205 0.062 12.31

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 49 0.503 0.26 3.520 18.63 1.508 103.10 1.006 201.12

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 13 0.103 0.133 0.07 0.718 0.934 4.94 0.308 0.400 27.35 0.205 0.267 53.36

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 59 0.605 0.31 4.238 22.43 1.816 124.14 1.211 242.17

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2024

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4105
Table 4.1.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

2024

2025

2026

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4105
Table 4.1.6

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.031 0.016 0.092 1.140 0.154 18.626 0.277 19.782

2010 7.9 0.133 0.017 0.069 0.400 0.051 4.942 0.667 0.084 80.712 1.201 0.152 85.723

2011 15.7 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.401 0.153 171.445

2012 23.6 0.369 0.016 0.192 1.108 0.047 13.685 1.847 0.078 223.509 3.325 0.141 237.386

2013 31.5 0.472 0.015 0.245 1.416 0.045 17.486 2.360 0.075 285.595 4.248 0.135 303.326

2014 28.7 0.503 0.018 0.261 1.508 0.053 18.626 2.514 0.088 304.221 4.525 0.158 323.108

2015 39.6 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.076 366.307 5.449 0.138 389.049

2016 43.8 0.708 0.016 0.368 2.124 0.048 26.229 3.540 0.081 428.392 6.372 0.145 454.989

2017 40.0 0.708 0.018 0.368 2.124 0.053 26.229 3.540 0.089 428.392 6.372 0.159 454.989

2018 36.8 0.708 0.019 0.368 2.124 0.058 26.229 3.540 0.096 428.392 6.372 0.173 454.989

2019 34.3 0.708 0.021 0.368 2.124 0.062 26.229 3.540 0.103 428.392 6.372 0.186 454.989

2020 29.0 0.708 0.024 0.368 2.124 0.073 26.229 3.540 0.122 428.392 6.372 0.220 454.989

2021 24.7 0.708 0.029 0.368 2.124 0.086 26.229 3.540 0.143 428.392 6.372 0.258 454.989

2022 20.9 0.708 0.034 0.368 2.124 0.102 26.229 3.540 0.169 428.392 6.372 0.305 454.989

2023 17.7 0.708 0.040 0.368 2.124 0.120 26.229 3.540 0.200 428.392 6.372 0.360 454.989

2024 15.0 0.708 0.047 0.368 2.124 0.142 26.229 3.540 0.236 428.392 6.372 0.425 454.989

2025 11.2 0.472 0.042 0.245 1.416 0.126 17.486 2.360 0.211 285.595 4.248 0.379 303.326

2026 9.6 0.472 0.049 0.245 1.416 0.148 17.486 2.360 0.246 285.595 4.248 0.443 303.326

2027 6.6 0.236 0.036 0.123 0.708 0.107 8.743 1.180 0.179 142.797 2.124 0.322 151.663

2028 5.7 0.236 0.041 0.123 0.708 0.124 8.743 1.180 0.207 142.797 2.124 0.373 151.663

2029 4.9 0.236 0.048 0.123 0.708 0.144 8.743 1.180 0.241 142.797 2.124 0.433 151.663

2030 4.2 0.236 0.056 0.123 0.708 0.169 8.743 1.180 0.281 142.797 2.124 0.506 151.663

2031 3.6 0.236 0.066 0.123 0.708 0.197 8.743 1.180 0.328 142.797 2.124 0.590 151.663

2032 3.1 0.236 0.076 0.123 0.708 0.228 8.743 1.180 0.381 142.797 2.124 0.685 151.663

2033 2.7 0.236 0.087 0.123 0.708 0.262 8.743 1.180 0.437 142.797 2.124 0.787 151.663

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4106
Table 4.1.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.181 0.09 1.266 6.70 0.544 37.18 0.315 62.98

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.181 0.09 1.266 6.70 0.544 37.18 0.315 62.98

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

2026

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4107
Table 4.1.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4107
Table 4.1.8

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2005 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2006 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2007 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2008 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

2009 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

2010 7.9

2011 15.7

2012 23.6

2013 31.5

2014 28.7

2015 39.6

2016 43.8

2017 40.0

2018 36.8

2019 34.3

2020 29.0

2021 24.7

2022 20.9

2023 17.7

2024 15.0

2025 11.2

2026 9.6

2027 6.6

2028 5.7

2029 4.9

2030 4.2

2031 3.6

2032 3.1

2033 2.7

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4108
Table 4.1.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 2 0.484 0.097 0.05 3.383 0.677 3.58 1.453 0.291 19.87 1.453 0.291 58.13

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.097 0.05 0.677 3.58 0.291 19.87 0.291 58.13

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 2 0.484 0.097 0.05 3.383 0.677 3.58 1.453 0.291 19.87 1.453 0.291 58.13

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.097 0.05 0.677 3.58 0.291 19.87 0.291 58.13

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.111 0.06 3.867 0.773 4.09 1.661 0.332 22.70 1.661 0.332 66.43

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.111 0.06 0.773 4.09 0.332 22.70 0.332 66.43

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2024

2025

2026

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2027

2028

2029

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4109
Table 4.1.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4109
Table 4.1.10

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

2007

2008 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

2009

2010 7.9 0.111 0.014 0.058 0.332 0.042 4.093 0.664 0.084 89.136 1.107 0.140 93.287

2011 15.7

2012 23.6

2013 31.5

2014 28.7

2015 39.6

2016 43.8

2017 40.0

2018 36.8

2019 34.3

2020 29.0

2021 24.7

2022 20.9

2023 17.7

2024 15.0

2025 11.2

2026 9.6

2027 6.6

2028 5.7

2029 4.9

2030 4.2

2031 3.6

2032 3.1

2033 2.7

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4110
Table 4.1.11

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2005 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2006 0.255 0.133 0.767 9.443 1.333 165.633 2.099 175.077 2.355 175.209

2007 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2008 0.278 0.144 0.835 10.281 1.440 178.153 2.275 188.434 2.553 188.578

2009 0.212 0.110 0.636 7.840 1.013 118.785 1.649 126.625 1.861 126.735

2010 7.9 0.244 0.031 0.127 0.732 0.093 9.034 1.331 0.169 169.848 2.064 0.261 178.882 2.308 0.292 179.009

2011 15.7 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.134 0.136 171.307 2.401 0.153 171.445

2012 23.6 0.369 0.016 0.192 1.108 0.047 13.685 1.847 0.078 223.509 2.955 0.125 237.194 3.325 0.141 237.386

2013 31.5 0.472 0.015 0.245 1.416 0.045 17.486 2.360 0.075 285.595 3.776 0.120 303.081 4.248 0.135 303.326

2014 28.7 0.503 0.018 0.261 1.508 0.053 18.626 2.514 0.088 304.221 4.022 0.140 322.847 4.525 0.158 323.108

2015 39.6 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.076 366.307 4.843 0.122 388.734 5.449 0.138 389.049

2016 43.8 0.708 0.016 0.368 2.124 0.048 26.229 3.540 0.081 428.392 5.664 0.129 454.621 6.372 0.145 454.989

2017 40.0 0.708 0.018 0.368 2.124 0.053 26.229 3.540 0.089 428.392 5.664 0.142 454.621 6.372 0.159 454.989

2018 36.8 0.708 0.019 0.368 2.124 0.058 26.229 3.540 0.096 428.392 5.664 0.154 454.621 6.372 0.173 454.989

2019 34.3 0.708 0.021 0.368 2.124 0.062 26.229 3.540 0.103 428.392 5.664 0.165 454.621 6.372 0.186 454.989

2020 29.0 0.708 0.024 0.368 2.124 0.073 26.229 3.540 0.122 428.392 5.664 0.195 454.621 6.372 0.220 454.989

2021 24.7 0.708 0.029 0.368 2.124 0.086 26.229 3.540 0.143 428.392 5.664 0.229 454.621 6.372 0.258 454.989

2022 20.9 0.708 0.034 0.368 2.124 0.102 26.229 3.540 0.169 428.392 5.664 0.271 454.621 6.372 0.305 454.989

2023 17.7 0.708 0.040 0.368 2.124 0.120 26.229 3.540 0.200 428.392 5.664 0.320 454.621 6.372 0.360 454.989

2024 15.0 0.708 0.047 0.368 2.124 0.142 26.229 3.540 0.236 428.392 5.664 0.378 454.621 6.372 0.425 454.989

2025 11.2 0.472 0.042 0.245 1.416 0.126 17.486 2.360 0.211 285.595 3.776 0.337 303.081 4.248 0.379 303.326

2026 9.6 0.472 0.049 0.245 1.416 0.148 17.486 2.360 0.246 285.595 3.776 0.393 303.081 4.248 0.443 303.326

2027 6.6 0.236 0.036 0.123 0.708 0.107 8.743 1.180 0.179 142.797 1.888 0.286 151.540 2.124 0.322 151.663

2028 5.7 0.236 0.041 0.123 0.708 0.124 8.743 1.180 0.207 142.797 1.888 0.331 151.540 2.124 0.373 151.663

2029 4.9 0.236 0.048 0.123 0.708 0.144 8.743 1.180 0.241 142.797 1.888 0.385 151.540 2.124 0.433 151.663

2030 4.2 0.236 0.056 0.123 0.708 0.169 8.743 1.180 0.281 142.797 1.888 0.450 151.540 2.124 0.506 151.663

2031 3.6 0.236 0.066 0.123 0.708 0.197 8.743 1.180 0.328 142.797 1.888 0.524 151.540 2.124 0.590 151.663

2032 3.1 0.236 0.076 0.123 0.708 0.228 8.743 1.180 0.381 142.797 1.888 0.609 151.540 2.124 0.685 151.663

2033 2.7 0.236 0.087 0.123 0.708 0.262 8.743 1.180 0.437 142.797 1.888 0.699 151.540 2.124 0.787 151.663

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Total

 LOF 460.8 12.649 7 37.952 469 63.296 7663 101.248 8131 113.897 8138

Average LOF 0.422 0.027 0 1.265 0.082 16 2.110 0.137 255 3.375 0.220 271 3.797 0.247 271

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4111
Table 4.1.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

Total 0.255 0.133 0.767 9.443 1.333 165.633 2.355 175.209

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Development Wells 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

Total 0.278 0.144 0.835 10.281 1.440 178.153 2.553 188.578

Pipeline

Platforms 0.486 0.220 0.041 0.232 0.041 0.232 0.568 0.683

Production Wells 0.031 0.016 0.092 1.140 0.154 18.626 0.277 19.782

Exploration Wells 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Development Wells

Total 0.697 0.329 0.677 8.072 1.054 119.016 2.429 127.417

Pipeline 1.367 0.173 0.525 1.105 0.140 5.721 0.354 0.045 5.504 2.826 0.358 11.751

Platforms 2.105 0.266 0.951 0.178 0.023 1.004 0.178 0.023 1.004 2.461 0.312 2.959

Production Wells 0.133 0.017 0.069 0.400 0.051 4.942 0.667 0.084 80.712 1.201 0.152 85.723

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.111 0.014 0.058 0.332 0.042 4.093 0.664 0.084 89.136 1.107 0.140 93.287

Total 3.716 0.470 1.603 2.016 0.255 15.760 1.864 0.236 176.356 7.595 0.961 193.719

Pipeline 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 2.826 0.180 11.751

Platforms 4.210 0.268 1.902 0.357 0.023 2.008 0.357 0.023 2.008 4.923 0.314 5.918

Production Wells 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.401 0.153 171.445

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.843 0.372 2.566 2.262 0.144 17.613 2.045 0.130 168.936 10.150 0.647 189.114

Pipeline 2.734 0.116 1.050 2.211 0.094 11.443 0.708 0.030 11.009 5.652 0.240 23.501

Platforms 5.829 0.247 2.634 0.494 0.021 2.780 0.494 0.021 2.780 6.816 0.289 8.195

Production Wells 0.369 0.016 0.192 1.108 0.047 13.685 1.847 0.078 223.509 3.325 0.141 237.386

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.932 0.378 3.876 3.813 0.162 27.908 3.049 0.129 237.298 15.793 0.669 269.082

Pipeline 2.734 0.087 1.050 2.211 0.070 11.443 0.708 0.022 11.009 5.652 0.179 23.501

Platforms 7.448 0.236 3.366 0.631 0.020 3.553 0.631 0.020 3.553 8.710 0.277 10.471

Production Wells 0.472 0.015 0.245 1.416 0.045 17.486 2.360 0.075 285.595 4.248 0.135 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.654 0.338 4.661 4.258 0.135 32.481 3.699 0.117 300.156 18.610 0.591 337.298

Pipeline 2.734 0.095 1.050 2.211 0.077 11.443 0.708 0.025 11.009 5.652 0.197 23.501

Platforms 7.959 0.277 3.597 0.674 0.023 3.796 0.674 0.023 3.796 9.307 0.324 11.189

Production Wells 0.503 0.018 0.261 1.508 0.053 18.626 2.514 0.088 304.221 4.525 0.158 323.108

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.195 0.390 4.908 4.393 0.153 33.865 3.896 0.136 319.026 19.485 0.679 357.798

Pipeline 5.429 0.137 2.086 4.358 0.110 22.557 1.398 0.035 21.735 11.185 0.282 46.379

Platforms 9.663 0.244 4.367 0.818 0.021 4.608 0.818 0.021 4.608 11.299 0.285 13.583

Production Wells 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.076 366.307 5.449 0.138 389.049

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 15.697 0.396 6.767 6.993 0.177 49.593 5.243 0.132 392.650 27.933 0.705 449.010

Pipeline 5.429 0.124 2.086 4.358 0.100 22.557 1.398 0.032 21.735 11.185 0.255 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.260 5.137 0.962 0.022 5.420 0.962 0.022 5.420 13.291 0.303 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.016 0.368 2.124 0.048 26.229 3.540 0.081 428.392 6.372 0.145 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.400 7.591 7.445 0.170 54.206 5.900 0.135 455.547 30.849 0.704 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.136 2.086 4.358 0.109 22.557 1.398 0.035 21.735 11.185 0.280 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.284 5.137 0.962 0.024 5.420 0.962 0.024 5.420 13.291 0.332 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.018 0.368 2.124 0.053 26.229 3.540 0.089 428.392 6.372 0.159 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.438 7.591 7.445 0.186 54.206 5.900 0.148 455.547 30.849 0.771 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.148 2.086 4.358 0.118 22.557 1.398 0.038 21.735 11.185 0.304 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.309 5.137 0.962 0.026 5.420 0.962 0.026 5.420 13.291 0.361 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.019 0.368 2.124 0.058 26.229 3.540 0.096 428.392 6.372 0.173 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.476 7.591 7.445 0.202 54.206 5.900 0.160 455.547 30.849 0.838 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.158 2.086 4.358 0.127 22.557 1.398 0.041 21.735 11.185 0.326 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.331 5.137 0.962 0.028 5.420 0.962 0.028 5.420 13.291 0.388 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.021 0.368 2.124 0.062 26.229 3.540 0.103 428.392 6.372 0.186 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.510 7.591 7.445 0.217 54.206 5.900 0.172 455.547 30.849 0.899 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.187 2.086 4.358 0.150 22.557 1.398 0.048 21.735 11.185 0.386 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.392 5.137 0.962 0.033 5.420 0.962 0.033 5.420 13.291 0.458 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.024 0.368 2.124 0.073 26.229 3.540 0.122 428.392 6.372 0.220 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.604 7.591 7.445 0.257 54.206 5.900 0.203 455.547 30.849 1.064 517.344

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010 7.9

15.7

2012 23.6

2013 31.5

2016 43.8

2014 28.7

2015 39.6

2017 40.0

2018 36.8

2019 34.3

2020 29.0

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4112
Table 4.1.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 5.429 0.220 2.086 4.358 0.176 22.557 1.398 0.057 21.735 11.185 0.453 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.460 5.137 0.962 0.039 5.420 0.962 0.039 5.420 13.291 0.538 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.029 0.368 2.124 0.086 26.229 3.540 0.143 428.392 6.372 0.258 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.709 7.591 7.445 0.301 54.206 5.900 0.239 455.547 30.849 1.249 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.260 2.086 4.358 0.209 22.557 1.398 0.067 21.735 11.185 0.535 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.544 5.137 0.962 0.046 5.420 0.962 0.046 5.420 13.291 0.636 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.034 0.368 2.124 0.102 26.229 3.540 0.169 428.392 6.372 0.305 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.837 7.591 7.445 0.356 54.206 5.900 0.282 455.547 30.849 1.476 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.307 2.086 4.358 0.246 22.557 1.398 0.079 21.735 11.185 0.632 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.642 5.137 0.962 0.054 5.420 0.962 0.054 5.420 13.291 0.751 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.040 0.368 2.124 0.120 26.229 3.540 0.200 428.392 6.372 0.360 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 0.989 7.591 7.445 0.421 54.206 5.900 0.333 455.547 30.849 1.743 517.344

Pipeline 5.429 0.362 2.086 4.358 0.291 22.557 1.398 0.093 21.735 11.185 0.746 46.379

Platforms 11.366 0.758 5.137 0.962 0.064 5.420 0.962 0.064 5.420 13.291 0.886 15.976

Production Wells 0.708 0.047 0.368 2.124 0.142 26.229 3.540 0.236 428.392 6.372 0.425 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.504 1.167 7.591 7.445 0.496 54.206 5.900 0.393 455.547 30.849 2.057 517.344

Pipeline 4.062 0.363 1.561 3.253 0.290 16.836 1.044 0.093 16.231 8.359 0.746 34.628

Platforms 7.642 0.682 3.454 0.647 0.058 3.643 0.647 0.058 3.643 8.936 0.798 10.741

Production Wells 0.472 0.042 0.245 1.416 0.126 17.486 2.360 0.211 285.595 4.248 0.379 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 12.177 1.087 5.260 5.316 0.475 37.965 4.051 0.362 305.469 21.544 1.924 348.695

Pipeline 4.062 0.423 1.561 3.253 0.339 16.836 1.044 0.109 16.231 8.359 0.871 34.628

Platforms 7.642 0.796 3.454 0.647 0.067 3.643 0.647 0.067 3.643 8.936 0.931 10.741

Production Wells 0.472 0.049 0.245 1.416 0.148 17.486 2.360 0.246 285.595 4.248 0.443 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 12.177 1.268 5.260 5.316 0.554 37.965 4.051 0.422 305.469 21.544 2.244 348.695

Pipeline 2.696 0.408 1.036 2.147 0.325 11.115 0.690 0.105 10.726 5.533 0.838 22.877

Platforms 3.918 0.594 1.771 0.332 0.050 1.867 0.332 0.050 1.867 4.582 0.694 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.036 0.123 0.708 0.107 8.743 1.180 0.179 142.797 2.124 0.322 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.850 1.038 2.930 3.187 0.483 21.725 2.201 0.334 155.391 12.238 1.854 180.046

Pipeline 2.696 0.473 1.036 2.147 0.377 11.115 0.690 0.121 10.726 5.533 0.971 22.877

Platforms 3.918 0.687 1.771 0.332 0.058 1.867 0.332 0.058 1.867 4.582 0.804 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.041 0.123 0.708 0.124 8.743 1.180 0.207 142.797 2.124 0.373 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.850 1.202 2.930 3.187 0.559 21.725 2.201 0.386 155.391 12.238 2.147 180.046

Pipeline 2.696 0.550 1.036 2.147 0.438 11.115 0.690 0.141 10.726 5.533 1.129 22.877

Platforms 3.918 0.800 1.771 0.332 0.068 1.867 0.332 0.068 1.867 4.582 0.935 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.048 0.123 0.708 0.144 8.743 1.180 0.241 142.797 2.124 0.433 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.850 1.398 2.930 3.187 0.650 21.725 2.201 0.449 155.391 12.238 2.498 180.046

Pipeline 1.329 0.316 0.512 1.042 0.248 5.393 0.336 0.080 5.222 2.707 0.644 11.127

Platforms 3.918 0.933 1.771 0.332 0.079 1.867 0.332 0.079 1.867 4.582 1.091 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.056 0.123 0.708 0.169 8.743 1.180 0.281 142.797 2.124 0.506 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.483 1.306 2.405 2.082 0.496 16.003 1.847 0.440 149.887 9.412 2.241 168.295

Pipeline 1.329 0.369 0.512 1.042 0.289 5.393 0.336 0.093 5.222 2.707 0.752 11.127

Platforms 3.918 1.088 1.771 0.332 0.092 1.867 0.332 0.092 1.867 4.582 1.273 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.066 0.123 0.708 0.197 8.743 1.180 0.328 142.797 2.124 0.590 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.483 1.523 2.405 2.082 0.578 16.003 1.847 0.513 149.887 9.412 2.615 168.295

Pipeline 1.329 0.429 0.512 1.042 0.336 5.393 0.336 0.108 5.222 2.707 0.873 11.127

Platforms 3.918 1.264 1.771 0.332 0.107 1.867 0.332 0.107 1.867 4.582 1.478 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.076 0.123 0.708 0.228 8.743 1.180 0.381 142.797 2.124 0.685 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.483 1.769 2.405 2.082 0.672 16.003 1.847 0.596 149.887 9.412 3.036 168.295

Pipeline 1.329 0.492 0.512 1.042 0.386 5.393 0.336 0.124 5.222 2.707 1.002 11.127

Platforms 3.918 1.451 1.771 0.332 0.123 1.867 0.332 0.123 1.867 4.582 1.697 5.505

Production Wells 0.236 0.087 0.123 0.708 0.262 8.743 1.180 0.437 142.797 2.124 0.787 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.483 2.031 2.405 2.082 0.771 16.003 1.847 0.684 149.887 9.412 3.486 168.295

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

2021 24.7

2022 20.9

2023 17.7

2024 15.0

2025 11.2

2026 9.6

2027 6.6

2028 5.7

2029 4.9

2030 4.2

2031 3.1

2032 2.7

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4112
Table 4.1.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2038

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4112
Table 4.1.13

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2005 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2006 0.255 0.133 0.767 9.443 1.333 165.633 2.099 175.077 2.355 175.209

2007 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2008 0.278 0.144 0.835 10.281 1.440 178.153 2.275 188.434 2.553 188.578

2009 0.697 0.329 0.677 8.072 1.054 119.016 1.731 127.088 2.429 127.417

2010 7.9 3.716 0.470 1.603 2.016 0.255 15.760 1.864 0.236 176.356 3.880 0.491 192.116 7.595 0.961 193.719

2011 15.7 5.843 0.372 2.566 2.262 0.144 17.613 2.045 0.130 168.936 4.307 0.274 186.548 10.150 0.647 189.114

2012 23.6 8.932 0.378 3.876 3.813 0.162 27.908 3.049 0.129 237.298 6.861 0.291 265.206 15.793 0.669 269.082

2013 31.5 10.654 0.338 4.661 4.258 0.135 32.481 3.699 0.117 300.156 7.957 0.253 332.637 18.610 0.591 337.298

2014 28.7 11.195 0.390 4.908 4.393 0.153 33.865 3.896 0.136 319.026 8.289 0.289 352.891 19.485 0.679 357.798

2015 39.6 15.697 0.396 6.767 6.993 0.177 49.593 5.243 0.132 392.650 12.236 0.309 442.242 27.933 0.705 449.010

2016 43.8 17.504 0.400 7.591 7.445 0.170 54.206 5.900 0.135 455.547 13.345 0.305 509.753 30.849 0.704 517.344

2017 40.0 17.504 0.438 7.591 7.445 0.186 54.206 5.900 0.148 455.547 13.345 0.334 509.753 30.849 0.771 517.344

2018 36.8 17.504 0.476 7.591 7.445 0.202 54.206 5.900 0.160 455.547 13.345 0.363 509.753 30.849 0.838 517.344

2019 34.3 17.504 0.510 7.591 7.445 0.217 54.206 5.900 0.172 455.547 13.345 0.389 509.753 30.849 0.899 517.344

2020 29.0 17.504 0.604 7.591 7.445 0.257 54.206 5.900 0.203 455.547 13.345 0.460 509.753 30.849 1.064 517.344

2021 24.7 17.504 0.709 7.591 7.445 0.301 54.206 5.900 0.239 455.547 13.345 0.540 509.753 30.849 1.249 517.344

2022 20.9 17.504 0.837 7.591 7.445 0.356 54.206 5.900 0.282 455.547 13.345 0.639 509.753 30.849 1.476 517.344

2023 17.7 17.504 0.989 7.591 7.445 0.421 54.206 5.900 0.333 455.547 13.345 0.754 509.753 30.849 1.743 517.344

2024 15.0 17.504 1.167 7.591 7.445 0.496 54.206 5.900 0.393 455.547 13.345 0.890 509.753 30.849 2.057 517.344

2025 11.2 12.177 1.087 5.260 5.316 0.475 37.965 4.051 0.362 305.469 9.367 0.836 343.434 21.544 1.924 348.695

2026 9.6 12.177 1.268 5.260 5.316 0.554 37.965 4.051 0.422 305.469 9.367 0.976 343.434 21.544 2.244 348.695

2027 6.6 6.850 1.038 2.930 3.187 0.483 21.725 2.201 0.334 155.391 5.388 0.816 177.116 12.238 1.854 180.046

2028 5.7 6.850 1.202 2.930 3.187 0.559 21.725 2.201 0.386 155.391 5.388 0.945 177.116 12.238 2.147 180.046

2029 4.9 6.850 1.398 2.930 3.187 0.650 21.725 2.201 0.449 155.391 5.388 1.100 177.116 12.238 2.498 180.046

2030 4.2 5.483 1.306 2.405 2.082 0.496 16.003 1.847 0.440 149.887 3.929 0.935 165.890 9.412 2.241 168.295

2031 3.6 5.483 1.523 2.405 2.082 0.578 16.003 1.847 0.513 149.887 3.929 1.091 165.890 9.412 2.615 168.295

2032 3.1 5.483 1.769 2.405 2.082 0.672 16.003 1.847 0.596 149.887 3.929 1.267 165.890 9.412 3.036 168.295

2033 2.7 5.483 2.031 2.405 2.082 0.771 16.003 1.847 0.684 149.887 3.929 1.455 165.890 9.412 3.486 168.295

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Total

 LOF 460.8 282.111 122 122.966 916 101.073 8097 224.039 9012 506.150 9135

Average LOF 9.404 0.612 4 4.099 0.267 31 3.369 0.219 270 7.468 0.486 300 16.872 1.098 304

9.404 4.099 3.369 7.468 16.872

0.612 0.267 0.219 0.486 1.098

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4113
Table 4.1.14

Sale 1 - Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Year 2016

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 17.50 7.45 5.90 13.35 30.85 0.40 0.17 0.13 0.30 0.70 7.58 54.14 453.92 508.06 515.64

Std Deviation = 6.85 2.38 1.38 3.12 7.58 0.16 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.17 5.09 25.33 166.83 168.75 168.83

Variance = 46.991 5.654 1.903 9.706 57.430 0.024 0.003 0.001 0.005 0.030 25.875 641.728 27830.730 28477.370 28504.210

Skewness = 0.57 0.49 0.18 0.25 0.45 0.57 0.49 0.18 0.25 0.45 1.51 0.75 0.47 0.47 0.47

Kurtosis = 2.81 2.93 2.83 2.90 2.82 2.81 2.93 2.83 2.90 2.82 5.90 3.49 3.15 3.18 3.17

Mode = 14.87 6.40 6.33 11.98 33.42 0.61 0.15 0.16 0.27 0.76 3.99 38.10 336.73 403.87 238.43

Minimum = 3.665 1.394 2.076 4.074 12.206 0.084 0.032 0.047 0.093 0.279 0 0.048 -5.653 57.627 89.063 100.160

5% Perc = 8.076 3.992 3.705 8.488 19.551 0.184 0.091 0.085 0.194 0.446 5 1.930 19.473 203.555 254.737 261.714

10% Perc = 9.265 4.598 4.127 9.457 21.641 0.212 0.105 0.094 0.216 0.494 10 2.578 24.401 247.551 300.820 308.648

15% Perc = 10.270 5.022 4.439 10.087 22.946 0.234 0.115 0.101 0.230 0.524 15 3.060 28.576 280.502 332.078 339.452

20% Perc = 11.235 5.354 4.707 10.666 24.124 0.257 0.122 0.107 0.244 0.551 20 3.527 31.871 309.260 359.667 367.135

25% Perc = 12.128 5.670 4.941 11.157 25.226 0.277 0.129 0.113 0.255 0.576 25 3.959 35.321 334.223 386.799 393.868

30% Perc = 12.989 5.971 5.116 11.576 26.248 0.297 0.136 0.117 0.264 0.599 30 4.390 38.345 355.170 410.086 418.341

35% Perc = 13.921 6.282 5.311 11.995 27.182 0.318 0.143 0.121 0.274 0.621 35 4.842 41.377 378.285 431.522 439.141

40% Perc = 14.716 6.555 5.506 12.425 28.082 0.336 0.150 0.126 0.284 0.641 40 5.303 44.483 400.053 452.817 460.282

45% Perc = 15.575 6.863 5.681 12.802 28.931 0.356 0.157 0.130 0.292 0.661 45 5.786 47.460 420.241 475.868 483.356

50% Perc = 16.524 7.166 5.858 13.237 29.860 0.377 0.164 0.134 0.302 0.682 50 6.233 50.572 440.511 495.134 503.779

55% Perc = 17.509 7.483 6.045 13.634 31.058 0.400 0.171 0.138 0.311 0.709 55 6.822 53.834 460.705 516.303 524.229

60% Perc = 18.530 7.825 6.241 13.987 32.172 0.423 0.179 0.142 0.319 0.735 60 7.465 57.228 482.578 537.060 545.385

65% Perc = 19.589 8.174 6.404 14.414 33.330 0.447 0.187 0.146 0.329 0.761 65 8.144 60.767 505.826 561.518 568.816

70% Perc = 20.739 8.559 6.598 14.840 34.578 0.473 0.195 0.151 0.339 0.789 70 8.864 65.029 532.804 587.964 596.134

75% Perc = 22.154 9.023 6.828 15.352 35.978 0.506 0.206 0.156 0.350 0.821 75 9.854 69.273 559.280 615.176 621.757

80% Perc = 23.441 9.480 7.073 15.948 37.394 0.535 0.216 0.161 0.364 0.854 80 10.915 74.410 591.103 646.552 653.645

85% Perc = 24.998 10.051 7.342 16.611 39.225 0.571 0.229 0.168 0.379 0.896 85 12.365 80.256 628.854 685.742 693.119

90% Perc = 27.201 10.754 7.710 17.483 41.113 0.621 0.246 0.176 0.399 0.939 90 14.407 88.387 676.355 732.058 740.066

95% Perc = 30.205 11.653 8.247 18.771 44.481 0.690 0.266 0.188 0.429 1.016 95 17.787 102.136 746.994 804.537 811.342

Maximum = 45.353 17.402 10.734 24.254 58.144 1.035 0.397 0.245 0.554 1.327 ## 34.668 159.414 1141.096 1187.318 1190.433

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4114
Table 4.1.15

Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 2.89 2.32 0.74 3.06 5.95 0.19 0.15 0.05 0.20 0.39 1.11 12.04 11.56 23.60 24.71

Std Deviation = 1.19 1.13 0.38 1.19 1.69 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.83 9.24 6.42 11.16 11.19

Variance = 1.413 1.283 0.143 1.413 2.866 0.006 0.005 0.001 0.006 0.012 0.690 85.420 41.245 124.542 125.229

Skewness = 0.54 0.64 0.73 0.55 0.43 0.54 0.64 0.73 0.55 0.43 1.40 1.39 0.99 0.90 0.90

Kurtosis = 2.78 2.85 3.14 2.84 2.98 2.78 2.85 3.14 2.84 2.98 5.26 5.50 4.07 4.05 4.04

Mode = 1.76 1.52 0.43 2.66 5.30 0.20 0.10 0.03 0.17 0.34 0.61 5.57 16.54 18.06 20.20

Minimum = 0.484 0.212 0.069 0.544 1.575 0.032 0.014 0.004 0.035 0.103 0 -0.138 -2.046 1.054 2.320 2.646

5% Perc = 1.220 0.781 0.246 1.397 3.412 0.079 0.051 0.016 0.091 0.222 5 0.179 1.595 3.456 8.628 9.681

10% Perc = 1.453 0.974 0.306 1.633 3.866 0.095 0.063 0.020 0.106 0.252 10 0.267 2.679 4.424 10.979 12.026

15% Perc = 1.651 1.143 0.354 1.805 4.166 0.107 0.074 0.023 0.118 0.271 15 0.353 3.576 5.273 12.514 13.598

20% Perc = 1.816 1.268 0.397 1.977 4.429 0.118 0.083 0.026 0.129 0.288 20 0.428 4.413 5.877 14.058 15.107

25% Perc = 1.976 1.420 0.438 2.143 4.693 0.129 0.092 0.029 0.140 0.306 25 0.505 5.294 6.615 15.368 16.470

30% Perc = 2.127 1.561 0.482 2.297 4.920 0.138 0.102 0.031 0.150 0.320 30 0.575 6.208 7.321 16.653 17.830

35% Perc = 2.265 1.693 0.530 2.455 5.157 0.147 0.110 0.034 0.160 0.336 35 0.642 7.041 8.039 17.966 18.952

40% Perc = 2.419 1.842 0.581 2.591 5.387 0.158 0.120 0.038 0.169 0.351 40 0.725 7.806 8.780 19.194 20.286

45% Perc = 2.572 1.997 0.635 2.743 5.612 0.167 0.130 0.041 0.179 0.365 45 0.807 8.725 9.568 20.579 21.621

50% Perc = 2.725 2.153 0.685 2.909 5.820 0.177 0.140 0.045 0.189 0.379 50 0.889 9.601 10.404 21.785 22.938

55% Perc = 2.888 2.282 0.736 3.077 6.066 0.188 0.149 0.048 0.200 0.395 55 0.989 10.692 11.146 23.140 24.329

60% Perc = 3.075 2.448 0.793 3.255 6.292 0.200 0.159 0.052 0.212 0.410 60 1.101 11.755 12.020 24.605 25.715

65% Perc = 3.273 2.651 0.858 3.427 6.522 0.213 0.173 0.056 0.223 0.425 65 1.211 13.246 13.012 26.288 27.302

70% Perc = 3.474 2.836 0.918 3.610 6.762 0.226 0.185 0.060 0.235 0.440 70 1.331 14.767 14.039 28.016 29.081

75% Perc = 3.672 3.047 0.980 3.837 7.038 0.239 0.198 0.064 0.250 0.458 75 1.491 16.541 15.186 29.928 30.984

80% Perc = 3.926 3.289 1.061 4.058 7.340 0.256 0.214 0.069 0.264 0.478 80 1.666 18.540 16.610 32.156 33.193

85% Perc = 4.178 3.566 1.153 4.354 7.727 0.272 0.232 0.075 0.283 0.503 85 1.908 21.092 18.325 35.193 36.291

90% Perc = 4.577 3.952 1.269 4.740 8.244 0.298 0.257 0.083 0.309 0.537 90 2.249 24.810 20.580 38.901 40.083

95% Perc = 5.124 4.455 1.443 5.267 8.978 0.334 0.290 0.094 0.343 0.585 95 2.828 30.924 23.684 44.755 45.986

Maximum = 7.355 6.231 2.298 7.539 12.502 0.479 0.406 0.150 0.491 0.814 ## 5.696 74.104 43.587 83.225 84.404

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4115
Table 4.1.16

Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 6.10 0.52 0.52 1.03 7.14 0.40 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.46 2.74 2.91 2.91 5.82 8.56

Std Deviation = 3.51 0.31 0.31 0.61 3.57 0.23 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.23 2.58 2.38 2.38 4.75 5.39

Variance = 12.333 0.094 0.094 0.375 12.715 0.052 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.054 6.680 5.651 5.651 22.604 29.106

Skewness = 0.69 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.69 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 1.65 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.03

Kurtosis = 2.76 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.77 2.76 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.77 6.06 5.01 5.01 5.01 4.08

Mode = 2.69 0.20 0.20 0.39 6.27 0.50 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.51 0.71 1.03 1.03 2.06 3.30

Minimum = 0.741 0.025 0.025 0.049 1.108 0.048 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.072 0 -0.967 -1.196 -1.196 -2.392 -1.317

5% Perc = 1.620 0.123 0.123 0.247 2.441 0.105 0.008 0.008 0.016 0.159 5 0.193 0.292 0.292 0.584 1.882

10% Perc = 2.016 0.160 0.160 0.321 2.981 0.131 0.010 0.010 0.021 0.194 10 0.383 0.538 0.538 1.076 2.756

15% Perc = 2.410 0.194 0.194 0.388 3.433 0.157 0.013 0.013 0.025 0.224 15 0.558 0.740 0.740 1.481 3.341

20% Perc = 2.811 0.229 0.229 0.459 3.824 0.183 0.015 0.015 0.030 0.249 20 0.727 0.936 0.936 1.872 3.941

25% Perc = 3.209 0.261 0.261 0.522 4.254 0.209 0.017 0.017 0.034 0.277 25 0.911 1.128 1.128 2.255 4.451

30% Perc = 3.603 0.300 0.300 0.599 4.685 0.235 0.020 0.020 0.039 0.305 30 1.084 1.320 1.320 2.640 5.003

35% Perc = 4.054 0.339 0.339 0.678 5.092 0.264 0.022 0.022 0.044 0.332 35 1.268 1.544 1.544 3.087 5.566

40% Perc = 4.483 0.374 0.374 0.748 5.546 0.292 0.024 0.024 0.049 0.361 40 1.471 1.762 1.762 3.524 6.100

45% Perc = 4.969 0.420 0.420 0.840 6.027 0.324 0.027 0.027 0.055 0.392 45 1.670 1.991 1.991 3.982 6.687

50% Perc = 5.453 0.462 0.462 0.924 6.505 0.355 0.030 0.030 0.060 0.424 50 1.890 2.263 2.263 4.525 7.373

55% Perc = 6.017 0.506 0.506 1.012 7.052 0.392 0.033 0.033 0.066 0.459 55 2.196 2.543 2.543 5.085 8.174

60% Perc = 6.549 0.553 0.553 1.107 7.588 0.427 0.036 0.036 0.072 0.494 60 2.495 2.899 2.899 5.798 8.925

65% Perc = 7.120 0.602 0.602 1.204 8.118 0.464 0.039 0.039 0.078 0.528 65 2.877 3.254 3.254 6.509 9.743

70% Perc = 7.696 0.658 0.658 1.316 8.774 0.501 0.043 0.043 0.086 0.572 70 3.293 3.660 3.660 7.321 10.591

75% Perc = 8.392 0.721 0.721 1.442 9.504 0.546 0.047 0.047 0.094 0.619 75 3.770 4.109 4.109 8.218 11.583

80% Perc = 9.290 0.795 0.795 1.590 10.361 0.605 0.052 0.052 0.104 0.675 80 4.351 4.610 4.610 9.220 12.837

85% Perc = 10.147 0.880 0.880 1.760 11.267 0.661 0.057 0.057 0.115 0.734 85 5.163 5.356 5.356 10.713 14.102

90% Perc = 11.300 0.962 0.962 1.923 12.286 0.736 0.063 0.063 0.125 0.800 90 6.386 6.179 6.179 12.358 16.157

95% Perc = 12.726 1.088 1.088 2.176 13.709 0.829 0.071 0.071 0.142 0.893 95 8.217 7.745 7.745 15.489 19.269

Maximum = 18.185 1.608 1.608 3.216 19.682 1.184 0.105 0.105 0.209 1.281 ## 17.879 15.604 15.604 31.208 39.573

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4116
Table 4.1.17

Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 0.42 1.27 2.11 3.37 3.80 0.03 0.08 0.14 0.22 0.25 0.22 15.63 255.27 270.90 271.12

Std Deviation = 0.15 0.46 0.56 0.98 1.00 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.15 10.30 96.12 96.65 96.65

Variance = 0.024 0.216 0.314 0.964 0.991 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.023 106.036 9239.903 9341.099 9341.020

Skewness = -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 0.78 0.86 0.47 0.46 0.46

Kurtosis = 2.42 2.42 2.69 2.56 2.57 2.42 2.42 2.69 2.56 2.57 3.51 3.56 3.10 3.09 3.09

Mode = 0.36 0.65 2.09 3.63 3.01 0.03 0.04 0.14 0.24 0.25 0.18 16.52 242.89 190.96 343.87

Minimum = 0.028 0.077 0.383 0.507 0.984 0.002 0.005 0.025 0.033 0.064 0 -0.095 -3.819 41.761 53.975 54.015

5% Perc = 0.162 0.482 1.167 1.714 2.129 0.011 0.031 0.076 0.112 0.139 5 0.015 2.226 110.616 125.647 125.785

10% Perc = 0.216 0.636 1.379 2.060 2.469 0.014 0.041 0.090 0.134 0.161 10 0.044 3.873 136.781 152.195 152.448

15% Perc = 0.250 0.748 1.514 2.314 2.721 0.016 0.049 0.099 0.151 0.177 15 0.067 5.233 156.179 170.473 170.891

20% Perc = 0.281 0.849 1.616 2.509 2.917 0.018 0.055 0.105 0.163 0.190 20 0.087 6.538 171.598 187.357 187.583

25% Perc = 0.310 0.934 1.725 2.678 3.096 0.020 0.061 0.112 0.174 0.202 25 0.106 7.808 185.147 200.332 200.538

30% Perc = 0.339 1.008 1.804 2.833 3.259 0.022 0.066 0.117 0.184 0.212 30 0.125 9.069 198.717 213.926 214.246

35% Perc = 0.361 1.082 1.885 2.991 3.405 0.023 0.070 0.123 0.195 0.222 35 0.144 10.274 210.569 226.229 226.482

40% Perc = 0.381 1.145 1.961 3.135 3.550 0.025 0.075 0.128 0.204 0.231 40 0.161 11.384 222.188 237.965 238.160

45% Perc = 0.402 1.208 2.051 3.263 3.684 0.026 0.079 0.134 0.212 0.240 45 0.178 12.639 234.416 249.160 249.368

50% Perc = 0.423 1.273 2.122 3.387 3.807 0.028 0.083 0.138 0.220 0.248 50 0.196 13.879 246.073 262.235 262.380

55% Perc = 0.442 1.330 2.190 3.522 3.937 0.029 0.087 0.143 0.229 0.256 55 0.215 15.143 258.431 275.129 275.270

60% Perc = 0.462 1.386 2.267 3.644 4.067 0.030 0.090 0.148 0.237 0.265 60 0.235 16.445 271.699 288.675 289.030

65% Perc = 0.484 1.460 2.337 3.771 4.204 0.032 0.095 0.152 0.246 0.274 65 0.257 17.911 286.374 301.737 302.148

70% Perc = 0.506 1.524 2.411 3.905 4.353 0.033 0.099 0.157 0.254 0.283 70 0.281 19.791 300.686 316.510 316.828

75% Perc = 0.534 1.596 2.503 4.059 4.503 0.035 0.104 0.163 0.264 0.293 75 0.306 21.664 317.191 334.168 334.427

80% Perc = 0.560 1.676 2.588 4.240 4.674 0.036 0.109 0.168 0.276 0.304 80 0.338 23.793 337.216 352.014 352.424

85% Perc = 0.592 1.777 2.701 4.429 4.865 0.039 0.116 0.176 0.288 0.317 85 0.374 26.567 358.408 373.061 373.224

90% Perc = 0.630 1.887 2.837 4.679 5.099 0.041 0.123 0.185 0.305 0.332 90 0.428 30.171 382.651 399.223 399.464

95% Perc = 0.680 2.042 3.022 5.014 5.450 0.044 0.133 0.197 0.326 0.355 95 0.506 35.431 425.776 440.142 440.330

Maximum = 0.822 2.450 3.954 6.291 6.645 0.053 0.159 0.257 0.410 0.433 ## 0.846 60.821 653.032 680.398 680.634

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4117
Table 4.1.18

Sale 1 LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 6.53 1.78 2.63 4.41 10.93 0.42 0.12 0.17 0.29 0.71 2.96 18.54 258.18 276.73 279.69

Std Deviation = 3.51 0.56 0.64 1.16 3.68 0.23 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.24 2.59 10.56 96.14 96.74 96.85

Variance = 12.332 0.313 0.408 1.347 13.556 0.052 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.057 6.701 111.562 9242.884 9358.111 9379.971

Skewness = 0.68 0.11 0.03 0.07 0.58 0.68 0.11 0.03 0.07 0.58 1.64 0.81 0.47 0.46 0.46

Kurtosis = 2.77 2.76 2.85 2.80 2.77 2.77 2.76 2.85 2.80 2.77 6.03 3.48 3.10 3.09 3.10

Mode = 2.56 1.70 2.27 4.30 8.52 0.17 0.11 0.15 0.28 0.55 0.66 11.24 293.01 292.78 356.26

Minimum = 1.061 0.200 0.660 0.898 3.203 0.069 0.013 0.043 0.058 0.209 0 -0.790 -2.817 44.156 57.964 59.402

5% Perc = 2.001 0.865 1.562 2.490 5.914 0.130 0.056 0.102 0.162 0.385 5 0.390 4.302 113.417 131.402 134.315

10% Perc = 2.445 1.056 1.784 2.888 6.606 0.159 0.069 0.116 0.188 0.430 10 0.604 6.408 139.917 157.681 160.555

15% Perc = 2.829 1.182 1.955 3.197 7.162 0.184 0.077 0.127 0.208 0.466 15 0.781 7.948 159.166 176.681 180.024

20% Perc = 3.237 1.291 2.083 3.405 7.595 0.211 0.084 0.136 0.222 0.494 20 0.942 9.385 174.945 193.354 195.845

25% Perc = 3.640 1.393 2.193 3.611 8.034 0.237 0.091 0.143 0.235 0.523 25 1.132 10.666 188.551 206.251 208.835

30% Perc = 4.035 1.473 2.289 3.784 8.482 0.263 0.096 0.149 0.246 0.552 30 1.301 11.839 201.681 219.260 222.649

35% Perc = 4.458 1.555 2.377 3.945 8.910 0.290 0.101 0.155 0.257 0.580 35 1.482 13.118 213.591 232.404 234.895

40% Perc = 4.908 1.632 2.460 4.099 9.387 0.320 0.106 0.160 0.267 0.611 40 1.695 14.311 225.041 244.154 247.357

45% Perc = 5.352 1.705 2.546 4.257 9.910 0.348 0.111 0.166 0.277 0.645 45 1.899 15.512 237.606 255.932 258.936

50% Perc = 5.882 1.776 2.629 4.398 10.343 0.383 0.116 0.171 0.286 0.673 50 2.125 16.645 249.316 268.273 271.174

55% Perc = 6.436 1.840 2.701 4.543 10.861 0.419 0.120 0.176 0.296 0.707 55 2.419 18.095 261.422 281.319 284.206

60% Perc = 6.965 1.913 2.783 4.692 11.428 0.453 0.125 0.181 0.305 0.744 60 2.721 19.556 274.938 293.742 296.373

65% Perc = 7.542 1.991 2.872 4.838 12.009 0.491 0.130 0.187 0.315 0.782 65 3.101 21.061 289.622 308.528 311.483

70% Perc = 8.139 2.075 2.959 5.019 12.646 0.530 0.135 0.193 0.327 0.823 70 3.525 22.928 303.443 322.442 324.900

75% Perc = 8.818 2.173 3.052 5.202 13.434 0.574 0.142 0.199 0.339 0.875 75 3.981 24.781 319.843 339.454 342.243

80% Perc = 9.694 2.264 3.171 5.393 14.184 0.631 0.147 0.206 0.351 0.923 80 4.566 26.851 339.879 358.233 361.317

85% Perc = 10.589 2.365 3.295 5.645 15.147 0.689 0.154 0.215 0.367 0.986 85 5.393 29.702 360.325 378.375 381.642

90% Perc = 11.693 2.505 3.453 5.920 16.130 0.761 0.163 0.225 0.385 1.050 90 6.617 33.319 385.462 405.189 408.080

95% Perc = 13.088 2.715 3.685 6.331 17.712 0.852 0.177 0.240 0.412 1.153 95 8.428 38.700 428.144 445.477 447.962

Maximum = 18.723 3.699 4.700 8.393 23.330 1.219 0.241 0.306 0.546 1.519 ## 18.081 64.661 658.126 686.393 686.953

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4118
Table 4.1.19

Sale 1 LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 9.42 4.10 3.37 7.47 16.88 0.61 0.27 0.22 0.49 1.10 4.07 30.58 269.75 300.33 304.39

Std Deviation = 3.71 1.26 0.74 1.66 4.02 0.24 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.26 2.71 14.27 96.29 97.32 97.42

Variance = 13.755 1.598 0.551 2.752 16.195 0.058 0.007 0.002 0.012 0.069 7.351 203.624 9270.889 9471.882 9491.287

Skewness = 0.62 0.49 0.15 0.23 0.50 0.62 0.49 0.15 0.23 0.50 1.43 0.79 0.47 0.45 0.46

Kurtosis = 2.93 2.97 3.02 2.96 2.99 2.93 2.97 3.02 2.96 2.99 5.36 3.75 3.10 3.07 3.07

Mode = 6.24 4.18 3.04 7.27 9.60 0.41 0.26 0.20 0.47 0.63 2.91 30.22 176.97 274.29 296.88

Minimum = 2.438 0.897 1.065 2.767 6.894 0.159 0.058 0.069 0.180 0.449 0 -0.030 0.686 51.554 66.082 76.293

5% Perc = 4.257 2.250 2.205 4.814 11.020 0.277 0.146 0.144 0.313 0.717 5 1.050 11.069 125.536 153.613 157.600

10% Perc = 5.036 2.560 2.429 5.345 12.033 0.328 0.167 0.158 0.348 0.783 10 1.382 14.090 151.688 180.447 185.017

15% Perc = 5.616 2.783 2.605 5.774 12.796 0.366 0.181 0.170 0.376 0.833 15 1.643 16.384 170.524 200.276 204.123

20% Perc = 6.064 2.987 2.734 6.047 13.333 0.395 0.194 0.178 0.394 0.868 20 1.893 18.364 185.973 215.030 219.023

25% Perc = 6.525 3.169 2.860 6.312 13.862 0.425 0.206 0.186 0.411 0.902 25 2.127 20.216 198.805 229.007 233.042

30% Perc = 7.000 3.339 2.967 6.543 14.429 0.456 0.217 0.193 0.426 0.939 30 2.365 21.983 213.362 242.078 246.534

35% Perc = 7.417 3.488 3.058 6.791 14.913 0.483 0.227 0.199 0.442 0.971 35 2.600 23.449 225.250 255.236 258.741

40% Perc = 7.868 3.637 3.150 6.979 15.434 0.512 0.237 0.205 0.454 1.005 40 2.833 24.967 237.045 266.565 270.678

45% Perc = 8.368 3.806 3.246 7.191 15.934 0.545 0.248 0.211 0.468 1.037 45 3.069 26.909 248.930 279.020 283.277

50% Perc = 8.869 3.962 3.346 7.386 16.416 0.577 0.258 0.218 0.481 1.069 50 3.334 28.606 260.543 291.487 295.196

55% Perc = 9.391 4.126 3.448 7.586 16.956 0.611 0.269 0.224 0.494 1.104 55 3.656 30.354 273.588 304.090 308.307

60% Perc = 9.910 4.293 3.552 7.807 17.494 0.645 0.279 0.231 0.508 1.139 60 4.017 32.060 286.658 318.610 322.242

65% Perc = 10.444 4.483 3.650 8.040 18.121 0.680 0.292 0.238 0.523 1.180 65 4.340 33.965 301.727 333.330 337.625

70% Perc = 11.126 4.676 3.758 8.282 18.828 0.724 0.304 0.245 0.539 1.226 70 4.760 36.192 315.901 347.516 351.618

75% Perc = 11.894 4.926 3.861 8.558 19.551 0.774 0.321 0.251 0.557 1.273 75 5.234 38.685 330.588 364.225 368.446

80% Perc = 12.686 5.155 4.001 8.881 20.369 0.826 0.336 0.260 0.578 1.326 80 5.870 41.720 350.769 381.430 385.621

85% Perc = 13.524 5.465 4.142 9.218 21.336 0.880 0.356 0.270 0.600 1.389 85 6.675 45.670 370.763 402.510 406.443

90% Perc = 14.604 5.825 4.326 9.662 22.363 0.951 0.379 0.282 0.629 1.456 90 7.852 50.154 396.432 429.853 433.978

95% Perc = 16.255 6.394 4.598 10.301 24.015 1.058 0.416 0.299 0.671 1.563 95 9.742 57.157 440.181 471.883 475.920

Maximum = 22.719 8.834 6.372 13.408 33.808 1.479 0.575 0.415 0.873 2.201 ## 19.075 101.992 668.221 703.705 707.586

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4119
Table 4.1.20

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 1 - Year 2016

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 5.429 49% 11.366 86% 0.708 11% 12.074 61% 17.504 57% P/L 5.429 31% 4.358 59% 1.398 24% 5.756 43% 11.185 36%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 4.358 39% 0.962 7% 2.124 33% 3.087 16% 7.445 24% Platforms 11.366 65% 0.962 13% 0.962 16% 1.925 14% 13.291 43%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 1.398 12% 0.962 7% 3.540 56% 4.503 23% 5.900 19% Wells 0.708 4% 2.124 29% 3.540 60% 5.664 42% 6.372 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 5.756 51% 1.925 14% 5.664 89% 7.589 39% 13.345 43% Platformsand Wells 12.074 69% 3.087 41% 4.503 76% 7.589 57% 19.664 64%

All Spills 11.185 100% 13.291 100% 6.372 100% 19.664 100% 30.849 100% All 17.504 100% 7.445 100% 5.900 100% 13.345 100% 30.849 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.124 49% 0.260 86% 0.016 11% 0.276 61% 0.400 57% P/L 0.124 31% 0.100 59% 0.032 24% 0.131 43% 0.255 36%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.100 39% 0.022 7% 0.048 33% 0.070 16% 0.170 24% Platforms 0.260 65% 0.022 13% 0.022 16% 0.044 14% 0.303 43%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.032 12% 0.022 7% 0.081 56% 0.103 23% 0.135 19% Wells 0.016 4% 0.048 29% 0.081 60% 0.129 42% 0.145 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.131 51% 0.044 14% 0.129 89% 0.173 39% 0.305 43% Platforms

and Wells 0.276 69% 0.070 41% 0.103 76% 0.173 57% 0.449 64%

All Spills 0.255 100% 0.303 100% 0.145 100% 0.449 100% 0.704 100% All 0.400 100% 0.170 100% 0.135 100% 0.305 100% 0.704 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 2 4% 5 32% 0 0% 6 1% 8 1% P/L 2 27% 23 42% 22 5% 44 9% 46 9%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 23 49% 5 34% 26 6% 32 7% 54 10% Platforms 5 68% 5 10% 5 1% 11 2% 16 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 22 47% 5 34% 428 94% 434 92% 456 88% Wells 0 5% 26 48% 428 94% 455 89% 455 88%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 44 96% 11 68% 455 100% 465 99% 510 99% Platforms

and Wells 6 73% 32 58% 434 95% 465 91% 471 91%

All Spills 46 100% 16 100% 455 100% 471 100% 517 100% All 8 100% 54 100% 456 100% 510 100% 517 100%

Sale 1 - Year 2016

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale 1 - Lyear 2016

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale 1 - Year 2016

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 1 - Year 2016

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale 1 - Year 2016

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 1 - Year 2016

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4120
Table 4.1.21

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 1 - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 2.892 49% 6.090 86% 0.422 11% 6.512 60% 9.404 56% P/L 2.892 31% 2.318 57% 0.744 22% 3.062 41% 5.953 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 2.318 39% 0.516 7% 1.265 33% 1.781 16% 4.099 24% Platforms 6.090 65% 0.516 13% 0.516 15% 1.031 14% 7.122 42%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.744 12% 0.516 7% 2.110 56% 2.626 24% 3.369 20% Wells 0.422 4% 1.265 31% 2.110 63% 3.375 45% 3.797 23%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 3.062 51% 1.031 14% 3.375 89% 4.406 40% 7.468 44% Platformsand Wells 6.512 69% 1.781 43% 2.626 78% 4.406 59% 10.918 65%

All Spills 5.953 100% 7.122 100% 3.797 100% 10.918 100% 16.872 100% All 9.404 100% 4.099 100% 3.369 100% 7.468 100% 16.872 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.188 49% 0.397 86% 0.027 11% 0.424 60% 0.612 56% P/L 0.188 31% 0.151 57% 0.048 22% 0.199 41% 0.388 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.151 39% 0.034 7% 0.082 33% 0.116 16% 0.267 24% Platforms 0.397 65% 0.034 13% 0.034 15% 0.067 14% 0.464 42%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.048 12% 0.034 7% 0.137 56% 0.171 24% 0.219 20% Wells 0.027 4% 0.082 31% 0.137 63% 0.220 45% 0.247 23%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.199 51% 0.067 14% 0.220 89% 0.287 40% 0.486 44% Platforms

and Wells 0.424 69% 0.116 43% 0.171 78% 0.287 59% 0.711 65%

All Spills 0.388 100% 0.464 100% 0.247 100% 0.711 100% 1.098 100% All 0.612 100% 0.267 100% 0.219 100% 0.486 100% 1.098 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 1 5% 3 32% 0 0% 3 1% 4 1% P/L 1 27% 12 39% 12 4% 24 8% 25 8%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 12 49% 3 34% 16 6% 19 7% 31 10% Platforms 3 67% 3 10% 3 1% 6 2% 9 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 12 47% 3 34% 255 94% 258 92% 270 89% Wells 0 5% 16 51% 255 95% 271 90% 271 89%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 24 95% 6 68% 271 100% 277 99% 300 99% Platforms

and Wells 3 73% 19 61% 258 96% 277 92% 280 92%

All Spills 25 100% 9 100% 271 100% 280 100% 304 100% All 4 100% 31 100% 270 100% 300 100% 304 100%

Sale 1 - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale 1 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 1 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Sale 1 - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale 1 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale 1 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT4121
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4101

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4102

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4103 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4104 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency - P/L

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4105 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4106 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Index - P/L

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4107 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4108 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4109 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Index - Platforms

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4110 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency - Wells

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4111 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4112 04/01/2005

Sale 1 - Spill Index - Wells

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.13 Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2016

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Index - CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Index - CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4113
Figure 4.1.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale 1

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4114
Figure 4.1.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale 1

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4115
Figure 4.1.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale 1

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 1 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4116
Figure 4.1.17

Sale 1 - Year 2016 - Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale 1 - Year 2016

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

43%

36%

21%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 30.849

Sale 1 - Year 2016

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

43%

36%

21%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 0.704

Sale 1 - Year 2016

 Spill Index [bbl]

88%

9%

3%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 517

Sale 1 - Year 2016

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

57%

24%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 30.849

Sale 1 - Year 2016

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

24%

57%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 0.704

Sale 1 - Year 2016

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 517

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4117
Figure 4.1.18

Sale 1 - LOF Average Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

56%

24%

20%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.098

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

56%

20%

24%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 16.872

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

35%

42% 23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 16.872

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

35%

23%

42%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.098

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

8%

3%

89%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 304

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 304

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF4118
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Beaufort Sea Sale 2
Table 4.2.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2014

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

2015

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4201
Table 4.2.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.398 0.10 3.329 1.72 3.774 19.53 1.212 18.84

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 5 2.519 0.203 0.01 5.975 0.481 0.25 6.870 0.553 2.86 2.200 0.177 2.75

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 20 0.790 0.06 1.887 0.97 2.116 10.95 0.681 10.59

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 5 2.433 0.196 0.01 5.826 0.469 0.24 6.476 0.521 2.70 2.087 0.168 2.61

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.196 0.01 0.469 0.24 0.521 2.70 0.168 2.61

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 5 2.433 0.196 0.01 5.826 0.469 0.24 6.476 0.521 2.70 2.087 0.168 2.61

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.196 0.01 0.469 0.24 0.521 2.70 0.168 2.61

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 5 2.433 0.196 0.01 5.826 0.469 0.24 6.476 0.521 2.70 2.087 0.168 2.61

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.196 0.01 0.469 0.24 0.521 2.70 0.168 2.61

2024

2025

2026

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4201
Table 4.2.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 7.9 0.405 0.051 0.029 0.961 0.122 0.496 1.367 0.173 0.525 1.105 0.140 5.721 0.354 0.045 5.504 1.459 0.185 11.226 2.826 0.358 11.751

2014 15.7 0.405 0.026 0.029 0.961 0.061 0.496 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 1.459 0.093 11.226 2.826 0.180 11.751

2015 15.7 0.405 0.026 0.029 0.961 0.061 0.496 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 1.459 0.093 11.226 2.826 0.180 11.751

2016 15.7 0.405 0.026 0.029 0.961 0.061 0.496 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 1.459 0.093 11.226 2.826 0.180 11.751

2017 34.5 1.686 0.049 0.120 3.834 0.111 1.963 5.521 0.160 2.083 4.096 0.119 21.233 1.295 0.038 20.088 5.391 0.156 41.321 10.912 0.316 43.404

2018 39.3 1.686 0.043 0.120 3.834 0.098 1.963 5.521 0.140 2.083 4.096 0.104 21.233 1.295 0.033 20.088 5.391 0.137 41.321 10.912 0.278 43.404

2019 37.4 1.686 0.045 0.120 3.834 0.103 1.963 5.521 0.148 2.083 4.096 0.110 21.233 1.295 0.035 20.088 5.391 0.144 41.321 10.912 0.292 43.404

2020 35.9 1.686 0.047 0.120 3.834 0.107 1.963 5.521 0.154 2.083 4.096 0.114 21.233 1.295 0.036 20.088 5.391 0.150 41.321 10.912 0.304 43.404

2021 34.6 1.686 0.049 0.120 3.834 0.111 1.963 5.521 0.160 2.083 4.096 0.118 21.233 1.295 0.037 20.088 5.391 0.156 41.321 10.912 0.315 43.404

2022 33.6 1.686 0.050 0.120 3.834 0.114 1.963 5.521 0.164 2.083 4.096 0.122 21.233 1.295 0.039 20.088 5.391 0.160 41.321 10.912 0.325 43.404

2023 29.3 1.686 0.058 0.120 3.834 0.131 1.963 5.521 0.188 2.083 4.096 0.140 21.233 1.295 0.044 20.088 5.391 0.184 41.321 10.912 0.372 43.404

2024 25.6 1.686 0.066 0.120 3.834 0.150 1.963 5.521 0.216 2.083 4.096 0.160 21.233 1.295 0.051 20.088 5.391 0.211 41.321 10.912 0.426 43.404

2025 22.3 1.686 0.076 0.120 3.834 0.172 1.963 5.521 0.248 2.083 4.096 0.184 21.233 1.295 0.058 20.088 5.391 0.242 41.321 10.912 0.489 43.404

2026 19.5 1.686 0.086 0.120 3.834 0.197 1.963 5.521 0.283 2.083 4.096 0.210 21.233 1.295 0.066 20.088 5.391 0.276 41.321 10.912 0.560 43.404

2027 17.0 1.686 0.099 0.120 3.834 0.226 1.963 5.521 0.325 2.083 4.096 0.241 21.233 1.295 0.076 20.088 5.391 0.317 41.321 10.912 0.642 43.404

2028 13.3 1.078 0.081 0.077 2.392 0.180 1.219 3.471 0.261 1.295 2.438 0.183 12.651 0.764 0.057 11.832 3.202 0.241 24.483 6.673 0.502 25.778

2029 11.7 1.078 0.092 0.077 2.392 0.204 1.219 3.471 0.297 1.295 2.438 0.208 12.651 0.764 0.065 11.832 3.202 0.274 24.483 6.673 0.570 25.778

2030 10.3 1.078 0.105 0.077 2.392 0.232 1.219 3.471 0.337 1.295 2.438 0.237 12.651 0.764 0.074 11.832 3.202 0.311 24.483 6.673 0.648 25.778

2031 9.1 1.078 0.119 0.056 2.392 0.263 0.973 3.471 0.381 1.030 2.438 0.268 10.951 0.764 0.084 10.585 3.202 0.352 21.536 6.673 0.733 22.565

2032 8.0 1.078 0.135 0.077 2.392 0.299 1.219 3.471 0.434 1.295 2.438 0.305 12.651 0.764 0.096 11.832 3.202 0.400 24.483 6.673 0.834 25.778

2033 7.0 1.078 0.154 0.077 2.392 0.342 1.219 3.471 0.496 1.295 2.438 0.348 12.651 0.764 0.109 11.832 3.202 0.457 24.483 6.673 0.953 25.778

2034 6.2 1.078 0.174 0.077 2.392 0.386 1.219 3.471 0.560 1.295 2.438 0.393 12.651 0.764 0.123 11.832 3.20 0.52 24.48 6.673 1.076 25.778

2035 5.4 1.078 0.200 0.077 2.392 0.443 1.219 3.471 0.643 1.295 2.438 0.451 12.651 0.764 0.142 11.832 3.20 0.59 24.48 6.673 1.236 25.778

2036 0.196 0.014 0.469 0.242 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 0.69 5.31 1.353 5.563

2037 0.196 0.014 0.469 0.242 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 0.69 5.31 1.353 5.563

2038 0.196 0.014 0.469 0.242 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 0.69 5.31 1.353 5.563

Total

 LOF 455.0 29.386 2 66.568 34 95.954 36 70.544 364 22.283 344 92.827 708 188.781 744

Average LOF 0.918 0.065 0 2.080 0.146 1 2.999 0.211 1 2.204 0.155 11 0.696 0.049 11 2.901 0.204 22 5.899 0.415 23

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4202
Table 4.2.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1 3 1.619 0.486 0.22 0.274 0.082 0.46

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 3 0.486 0.22 0.082 0.46

Shallow 1 13 1.619 2.105 0.95 0.274 0.357 2.01

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 13 2.105 0.95 0.357 2.01

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.724 1.68 0.631 3.55

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 23 3.724 1.68 0.631 3.55

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 1 3 1.704 0.511 0.23 0.288 0.087 0.49

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 26 4.235 1.91 0.717 4.04

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 16 1.704 2.726 1.23 0.288 0.461 2.60

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 39 6.450 2.91 1.092 6.15

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 36 1.704 6.133 2.77 0.288 1.038 5.85

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 59 9.857 4.45 1.669 9.40

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47 2024

2020

2021

2022

2023

2014

2015

2018

2019

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4203
Table 4.2.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 69 11.561 5.22 1.957 11.02

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 46 1.704 7.837 3.54 0.288 1.326 7.47

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 46 7.837 3.54 1.326 7.47

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4203
Table 4.2.4

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.486 0.220 0.082 0.463 0.082 0.463 0.568 0.683

2013 7.9 2.105 0.266 0.951 0.357 0.045 2.008 0.357 0.045 2.008 2.461 0.312 2.959

2014 15.7 3.724 0.237 1.683 0.631 0.040 3.553 0.631 0.040 3.553 4.355 0.277 5.235

2015 15.7 3.724 0.237 1.683 0.631 0.040 3.553 0.631 0.040 3.553 4.355 0.277 5.235

2016 15.7 4.235 0.270 1.914 0.717 0.046 4.040 0.717 0.046 4.040 4.952 0.315 5.954

2017 34.5 6.450 0.187 2.915 1.092 0.032 6.150 1.092 0.032 6.150 7.542 0.219 9.065

2018 39.3 9.857 0.251 4.455 1.669 0.042 9.398 1.669 0.042 9.398 11.526 0.293 13.852

2019 37.4 11.561 0.309 5.225 1.957 0.052 11.021 1.957 0.052 11.021 13.518 0.361 16.246

2020 35.9 11.561 0.322 5.225 1.957 0.055 11.021 1.957 0.055 11.021 13.518 0.377 16.246

2021 34.6 11.561 0.334 5.225 1.957 0.057 11.021 1.957 0.057 11.021 13.518 0.391 16.246

2022 33.6 11.561 0.344 5.225 1.957 0.058 11.021 1.957 0.058 11.021 13.518 0.402 16.246

2023 29.3 11.561 0.395 5.225 1.957 0.067 11.021 1.957 0.067 11.021 13.518 0.461 16.246

2024 25.6 11.561 0.452 5.225 1.957 0.076 11.021 1.957 0.076 11.021 13.518 0.528 16.246

2025 22.3 11.561 0.518 5.225 1.957 0.088 11.021 1.957 0.088 11.021 13.518 0.606 16.246

2026 19.5 11.561 0.593 5.225 1.957 0.100 11.021 1.957 0.100 11.021 13.518 0.693 16.246

2027 17.0 11.561 0.680 5.225 1.957 0.115 11.021 1.957 0.115 11.021 13.518 0.795 16.246

2028 13.3 7.837 0.589 3.542 1.326 0.100 7.469 1.326 0.100 7.469 9.163 0.689 11.010

2029 11.7 7.837 0.670 3.542 1.326 0.113 7.469 1.326 0.113 7.469 9.163 0.783 11.010

2030 10.3 7.837 0.761 3.542 1.326 0.129 7.469 1.326 0.129 7.469 9.163 0.890 11.010

2031 9.1 7.837 0.861 3.542 1.326 0.146 7.469 1.326 0.146 7.469 9.163 1.007 11.010

2032 8.0 7.837 0.980 3.542 1.326 0.166 7.469 1.326 0.166 7.469 9.163 1.145 11.010

2033 7.0 7.837 1.120 3.542 1.326 0.189 7.469 1.326 0.189 7.469 9.163 1.309 11.010

2034 6.2 7.837 1.264 3.542 1.326 0.214 7.469 9.16 1.48 11.01 9.163 1.478 11.010

2035 5.4 7.837 1.451 3.542 1.326 0.246 7.469 9.16 1.70 11.01 9.163 1.697 11.010

2036

2037

2038

Total

 LOF 455.0 197.323 89 33.406 188 49.079 195 230.729 277

Average LOF 6.166 0.434 3 1.044 0.073 6 1.534 0.108 6 7.210 0.507 9

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4204
Table 4.2.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 3 0.103 0.031 0.02 0.718 0.215 1.14 0.308 0.092 6.31 0.205 0.062 12.31

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 3 0.031 0.02 0.215 1.14 0.092 6.31 0.062 12.31

Shallow 13 0.103 0.133 0.07 0.718 0.934 4.94 0.308 0.400 27.35 0.205 0.267 53.36

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 13 0.133 0.07 0.934 4.94 0.400 27.35 0.267 53.36

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 23 0.236 0.12 1.652 8.74 0.708 48.39 0.472 94.40

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 3 0.103 0.031 0.02 0.718 0.215 1.14 0.308 0.092 6.31 0.205 0.062 12.31

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 26 0.267 0.14 1.868 9.88 0.800 54.71 0.534 106.72

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 16 0.103 0.164 0.09 0.718 1.149 6.08 0.308 0.493 33.66 0.205 0.328 65.67

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 39 0.400 0.21 2.801 14.83 1.201 82.06 0.800 160.08

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 36 0.103 0.369 0.19 0.718 2.586 13.68 0.308 1.108 75.75 0.205 0.739 147.76

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 59 0.605 0.31 4.238 22.43 1.816 124.14 1.211 242.17

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4205
Table 4.2.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 69 0.708 0.37 4.956 26.23 2.124 145.18 1.416 283.21

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 46 0.472 0.25 3.304 17.49 1.416 96.79 0.944 188.81

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

2036

2037

2038

2022

2023

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

2026

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4205
Table 4.2.6

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.031 0.016 0.092 1.140 0.154 18.626 0.277 19.782

2013 7.9 0.133 0.017 0.069 0.400 0.051 4.942 0.667 0.084 80.712 1.201 0.152 85.723

2014 15.7 0.236 0.015 0.123 0.708 0.045 8.743 1.180 0.075 142.797 2.124 0.135 151.663

2015 15.7 0.236 0.015 0.123 0.708 0.045 8.743 1.180 0.075 142.797 2.124 0.135 151.663

2016 15.7 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.401 0.153 171.445

2017 34.5 0.400 0.012 0.208 1.201 0.035 14.825 2.001 0.058 242.135 3.602 0.104 257.168

2018 39.3 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.077 366.307 5.449 0.139 389.049

2019 37.4 0.708 0.019 0.368 2.124 0.057 26.229 3.540 0.095 428.392 6.372 0.170 454.989

2020 35.9 0.708 0.020 0.368 2.124 0.059 26.229 3.540 0.099 428.392 6.372 0.178 454.989

2021 34.6 0.708 0.020 0.368 2.124 0.061 26.229 3.540 0.102 428.392 6.372 0.184 454.989

2022 33.6 0.708 0.021 0.368 2.124 0.063 26.229 3.540 0.105 428.392 6.372 0.190 454.989

2023 29.3 0.708 0.024 0.368 2.124 0.072 26.229 3.540 0.121 428.392 6.372 0.217 454.989

2024 25.6 0.708 0.028 0.368 2.124 0.083 26.229 3.540 0.138 428.392 6.372 0.249 454.989

2025 22.3 0.708 0.032 0.368 2.124 0.095 26.229 3.540 0.159 428.392 6.372 0.286 454.989

2026 19.5 0.708 0.036 0.368 2.124 0.109 26.229 3.540 0.182 428.392 6.372 0.327 454.989

2027 17.0 0.708 0.042 0.368 2.124 0.125 26.229 3.540 0.208 428.392 6.372 0.375 454.989

2028 13.3 0.472 0.035 0.245 1.416 0.106 17.486 2.360 0.177 285.595 4.248 0.319 303.326

2029 11.7 0.472 0.040 0.245 1.416 0.121 17.486 2.360 0.202 285.595 4.248 0.363 303.326

2030 10.3 0.472 0.046 0.245 1.416 0.137 17.486 2.360 0.229 285.595 4.248 0.412 303.326

2031 9.1 0.472 0.052 0.245 1.416 0.156 17.486 2.360 0.259 285.595 4.248 0.467 303.326

2032 8.0 0.472 0.059 0.245 1.416 0.177 17.486 2.360 0.295 285.595 4.248 0.531 303.326

2033 7.0 0.472 0.067 0.245 1.416 0.202 17.486 2.360 0.337 285.595 4.248 0.607 303.326

2034 6.2 0.472 0.076 0.245 1.416 0.228 17.486 2.360 0.381 285.595 4.248 0.685 303.326

2035 5.4 0.472 0.087 0.245 1.416 0.262 17.486 2.360 0.437 285.595 4.248 0.787 303.326

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4206
Table 4.2.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.181 0.09 1.266 6.70 0.544 37.18 0.315 62.98

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 2 0.384 0.20 2.690 14.24 1.156 79.00 0.669 133.84

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2024

2025

2026

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2027

2028

2029

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4207
Table 4.2.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4207
Table 4.2.8

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2008 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2009

2010 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

2011

2012 0.384 0.200 1.156 14.236 1.825 212.838 3.365 227.274

2013 7.9 0.204 0.026 0.106 0.612 0.077 7.537 0.966 0.122 112.679 1.782 0.226 120.321

2014 15.7

2015 15.7

2016 15.7

2017 34.5

2018 39.3

2019 37.4

2020 35.9

2021 34.6

2022 33.6

2023 29.3

2024 25.6

2025 22.3

2026 19.5

2027 17.0

2028 13.3

2029 11.7

2030 10.3

2031 9.1

2032 8.0

2033 7.0

2034 6.2

2035 5.4

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4208
Table 4.2.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 2 0.484 0.097 0.05 3.383 0.677 3.58 1.453 0.291 19.87 1.453 0.291 58.13

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.097 0.05 0.677 3.58 0.291 19.87 0.291 58.13

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.111 0.06 3.867 0.773 4.09 1.661 0.332 22.70 1.661 0.332 66.43

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.111 0.06 0.773 4.09 0.332 22.70 0.332 66.43

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.111 0.06 3.867 0.773 4.09 1.661 0.332 22.70 1.661 0.332 66.43

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.111 0.06 0.773 4.09 0.332 22.70 0.332 66.43

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

2026

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4209
Table 4.2.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4209
Table 4.2.10

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

2010

2011

2012

2013 7.9 0.111 0.014 0.058 0.332 0.042 4.093 0.664 0.084 89.136 1.107 0.140 93.287

2014 15.7 0.111 0.007 0.058 0.332 0.021 4.093 0.664 0.042 89.136 1.107 0.071 93.287

2015 15.7

2016 15.7

2017 34.5

2018 39.3

2019 37.4

2020 35.9

2021 34.6

2022 33.6

2023 29.3

2024 25.6

2025 22.3

2026 19.5

2027 17.0

2028 13.3

2029 11.7

2030 10.3

2031 9.1

2032 8.0

2033 7.0

2034 6.2

2035 5.4

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4210
Table 4.2.11

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2008 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2009 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.872 81.575 0.969 81.626

2010 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.403 106.858 1.584 106.952

2011

2012 0.415 0.216 1.248 15.377 1.979 231.464 3.227 246.840 3.642 247.056

2013 7.9 0.448 0.057 0.233 1.344 0.170 16.571 2.298 0.291 282.527 3.642 0.461 299.098 4.089 0.518 299.331

2014 15.7 0.347 0.022 0.180 1.040 0.066 12.836 1.844 0.117 231.934 2.885 0.184 244.770 3.231 0.206 244.950

2015 15.7 0.236 0.015 0.123 0.708 0.045 8.743 1.180 0.075 142.797 1.888 0.120 151.540 2.124 0.135 151.663

2016 15.7 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.134 0.136 171.307 2.401 0.153 171.445

2017 34.5 0.400 0.012 0.208 1.201 0.035 14.825 2.001 0.058 242.135 3.202 0.093 256.960 3.602 0.104 257.168

2018 39.3 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.077 366.307 4.843 0.123 388.734 5.449 0.139 389.049

2019 37.4 0.708 0.019 0.368 2.124 0.057 26.229 3.540 0.095 428.392 5.664 0.151 454.621 6.372 0.170 454.989

2020 35.9 0.708 0.020 0.368 2.124 0.059 26.229 3.540 0.099 428.392 5.664 0.158 454.621 6.372 0.178 454.989

2021 34.6 0.708 0.020 0.368 2.124 0.061 26.229 3.540 0.102 428.392 5.664 0.164 454.621 6.372 0.184 454.989

2022 33.6 0.708 0.021 0.368 2.124 0.063 26.229 3.540 0.105 428.392 5.664 0.169 454.621 6.372 0.190 454.989

2023 29.3 0.708 0.024 0.368 2.124 0.072 26.229 3.540 0.121 428.392 5.664 0.193 454.621 6.372 0.217 454.989

2024 25.6 0.708 0.028 0.368 2.124 0.083 26.229 3.540 0.138 428.392 5.664 0.221 454.621 6.372 0.249 454.989

2025 22.3 0.708 0.032 0.368 2.124 0.095 26.229 3.540 0.159 428.392 5.664 0.254 454.621 6.372 0.286 454.989

2026 19.5 0.708 0.036 0.368 2.124 0.109 26.229 3.540 0.182 428.392 5.664 0.290 454.621 6.372 0.327 454.989

2027 17.0 0.708 0.042 0.368 2.124 0.125 26.229 3.540 0.208 428.392 5.664 0.333 454.621 6.372 0.375 454.989

2028 13.3 0.472 0.035 0.245 1.416 0.106 17.486 2.360 0.177 285.595 3.776 0.284 303.081 4.248 0.319 303.326

2029 11.7 0.472 0.040 0.245 1.416 0.121 17.486 2.360 0.202 285.595 3.776 0.323 303.081 4.248 0.363 303.326

2030 10.3 0.472 0.046 0.245 1.416 0.137 17.486 2.360 0.229 285.595 3.776 0.367 303.081 4.248 0.412 303.326

2031 9.1 0.472 0.052 0.245 1.416 0.156 17.486 2.360 0.259 285.595 3.776 0.415 303.081 4.248 0.467 303.326

2032 8.0 0.472 0.059 0.245 1.416 0.177 17.486 2.360 0.295 285.595 3.776 0.472 303.081 4.248 0.531 303.326

2033 7.0 0.472 0.067 0.245 1.416 0.202 17.486 2.360 0.337 285.595 3.776 0.539 303.081 4.248 0.607 303.326

2034 6.2 0.472 0.076 0.245 1.416 0.228 17.486 2.360 0.381 285.595 3.78 0.61 303.08 4.248 0.685 303.326

2035 5.4 0.472 0.087 0.245 1.416 0.262 17.486 2.360 0.437 285.595 3.78 0.70 303.08 4.248 0.787 303.326

2036

2037

2038

Total

 LOF 455.0 13.461 7 40.390 499 67.348 8152 107.738 8651 121.199 8658

Average LOF 0.421 0.030 0 1.262 0.089 16 2.105 0.148 255 3.367 0.237 270 3.787 0.266 271

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4211
Table 4.2.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

Total 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.969 81.626

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Development Wells

Total 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms 0.486 0.220 0.041 0.232 0.041 0.232 0.568 0.683

Production Wells 0.031 0.016 0.092 1.140 0.154 18.626 0.277 19.782

Exploration Wells 0.384 0.200 1.156 14.236 1.825 212.838 3.365 227.274

Development Wells

Total 0.901 0.435 1.289 15.608 2.020 231.695 4.210 247.739

Pipeline 1.367 0.173 0.525 1.105 0.140 5.721 0.354 0.045 5.504 2.826 0.358 11.751

Platforms 2.105 0.266 0.951 0.178 0.023 1.004 0.178 0.023 1.004 2.461 0.312 2.959

Production Wells 0.133 0.017 0.069 0.400 0.051 4.942 0.667 0.084 80.712 1.201 0.152 85.723

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.026 0.106 0.612 0.077 7.537 0.966 0.122 112.679 1.782 0.226 120.321

Development Wells 0.111 0.014 0.058 0.332 0.042 4.093 0.664 0.084 89.136 1.107 0.140 93.287

Total 3.919 0.496 1.709 2.628 0.333 23.297 2.830 0.358 289.035 9.377 1.187 314.040

Pipeline 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 2.826 0.180 11.751

Platforms 3.724 0.237 1.683 0.315 0.020 1.776 0.315 0.020 1.776 4.355 0.277 5.235

Production Wells 0.236 0.015 0.123 0.708 0.045 8.743 1.180 0.075 142.797 2.124 0.135 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.111 0.007 0.058 0.332 0.021 4.093 0.664 0.042 89.136 1.107 0.071 93.287

Total 5.437 0.346 2.388 2.461 0.157 20.333 2.514 0.160 239.215 10.412 0.663 261.936

Pipeline 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 2.826 0.180 11.751

Platforms 3.724 0.237 1.683 0.315 0.020 1.776 0.315 0.020 1.776 4.355 0.277 5.235

Production Wells 0.236 0.015 0.123 0.708 0.045 8.743 1.180 0.075 142.797 2.124 0.135 151.663

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.327 0.339 2.330 2.129 0.136 16.241 1.849 0.118 150.078 9.305 0.593 168.649

Pipeline 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 2.826 0.180 11.751

Platforms 4.235 0.270 1.914 0.359 0.023 2.020 0.359 0.023 2.020 4.952 0.315 5.954

Production Wells 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.401 0.153 171.445

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.869 0.374 2.577 2.265 0.144 17.625 2.047 0.130 168.947 10.180 0.648 189.149

Pipeline 5.521 0.160 2.083 4.096 0.119 21.233 1.295 0.038 20.088 10.912 0.316 43.404

Platforms 6.450 0.187 2.915 0.546 0.016 3.075 0.546 0.016 3.075 7.542 0.219 9.065

Production Wells 0.400 0.012 0.208 1.201 0.035 14.825 2.001 0.058 242.135 3.602 0.104 257.168

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 12.371 0.359 5.205 5.843 0.169 39.133 3.842 0.111 265.298 22.056 0.639 309.637

Pipeline 5.521 0.140 2.083 4.096 0.104 21.233 1.295 0.033 20.088 10.912 0.278 43.404

Platforms 9.857 0.251 4.455 0.834 0.021 4.699 0.834 0.021 4.699 11.526 0.293 13.852

Production Wells 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.077 366.307 5.449 0.139 389.049

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 15.983 0.407 6.852 6.747 0.172 48.359 5.157 0.131 391.094 27.887 0.710 446.305

Pipeline 5.521 0.148 2.083 4.096 0.110 21.233 1.295 0.035 20.088 10.912 0.292 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.309 5.225 0.979 0.026 5.511 0.979 0.026 5.511 13.518 0.361 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.019 0.368 2.124 0.057 26.229 3.540 0.095 428.392 6.372 0.170 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.476 7.675 7.199 0.192 52.972 5.814 0.155 453.991 30.803 0.824 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.154 2.083 4.096 0.114 21.233 1.295 0.036 20.088 10.912 0.304 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.322 5.225 0.979 0.027 5.511 0.979 0.027 5.511 13.518 0.377 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.020 0.368 2.124 0.059 26.229 3.540 0.099 428.392 6.372 0.178 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.496 7.675 7.199 0.201 52.972 5.814 0.162 453.991 30.803 0.858 514.639

2019 37.4

2020 35.9

2017 34.5

2018 39.3

2016 15.7

2014 15.7

2015 15.7

2012

2013 7.9

2011

2010

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4212
Table 4.2.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 5.521 0.160 2.083 4.096 0.118 21.233 1.295 0.037 20.088 10.912 0.315 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.334 5.225 0.979 0.028 5.511 0.979 0.028 5.511 13.518 0.391 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.020 0.368 2.124 0.061 26.229 3.540 0.102 428.392 6.372 0.184 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.514 7.675 7.199 0.208 52.972 5.814 0.168 453.991 30.803 0.890 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.164 2.083 4.096 0.122 21.233 1.295 0.039 20.088 10.912 0.325 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.344 5.225 0.979 0.029 5.511 0.979 0.029 5.511 13.518 0.402 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.021 0.368 2.124 0.063 26.229 3.540 0.105 428.392 6.372 0.190 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.529 7.675 7.199 0.214 52.972 5.814 0.173 453.991 30.803 0.917 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.188 2.083 4.096 0.140 21.233 1.295 0.044 20.088 10.912 0.372 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.395 5.225 0.979 0.033 5.511 0.979 0.033 5.511 13.518 0.461 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.024 0.368 2.124 0.072 26.229 3.540 0.121 428.392 6.372 0.217 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.607 7.675 7.199 0.246 52.972 5.814 0.198 453.991 30.803 1.051 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.216 2.083 4.096 0.160 21.233 1.295 0.051 20.088 10.912 0.426 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.452 5.225 0.979 0.038 5.511 0.979 0.038 5.511 13.518 0.528 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.028 0.368 2.124 0.083 26.229 3.540 0.138 428.392 6.372 0.249 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.695 7.675 7.199 0.281 52.972 5.814 0.227 453.991 30.803 1.203 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.248 2.083 4.096 0.184 21.233 1.295 0.058 20.088 10.912 0.489 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.518 5.225 0.979 0.044 5.511 0.979 0.044 5.511 13.518 0.606 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.032 0.368 2.124 0.095 26.229 3.540 0.159 428.392 6.372 0.286 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.798 7.675 7.199 0.323 52.972 5.814 0.261 453.991 30.803 1.381 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.283 2.083 4.096 0.210 21.233 1.295 0.066 20.088 10.912 0.560 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.593 5.225 0.979 0.050 5.511 0.979 0.050 5.511 13.518 0.693 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.036 0.368 2.124 0.109 26.229 3.540 0.182 428.392 6.372 0.327 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 0.912 7.675 7.199 0.369 52.972 5.814 0.298 453.991 30.803 1.580 514.639

Pipeline 5.521 0.325 2.083 4.096 0.241 21.233 1.295 0.076 20.088 10.912 0.642 43.404

Platforms 11.561 0.680 5.225 0.979 0.058 5.511 0.979 0.058 5.511 13.518 0.795 16.246

Production Wells 0.708 0.042 0.368 2.124 0.125 26.229 3.540 0.208 428.392 6.372 0.375 454.989

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.790 1.046 7.675 7.199 0.423 52.972 5.814 0.342 453.991 30.803 1.812 514.639

Pipeline 3.471 0.261 1.295 2.438 0.183 12.651 0.764 0.057 11.832 6.673 0.502 25.778

Platforms 7.837 0.589 3.542 0.663 0.050 3.734 0.663 0.050 3.734 9.163 0.689 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.035 0.245 1.416 0.106 17.486 2.360 0.177 285.595 4.248 0.319 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 0.886 5.082 4.517 0.340 33.871 3.788 0.285 301.161 20.084 1.510 340.114

Pipeline 3.471 0.297 1.295 2.438 0.208 12.651 0.764 0.065 11.832 6.673 0.570 25.778

Platforms 7.837 0.670 3.542 0.663 0.057 3.734 0.663 0.057 3.734 9.163 0.783 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.040 0.245 1.416 0.121 17.486 2.360 0.202 285.595 4.248 0.363 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 1.007 5.082 4.517 0.386 33.871 3.788 0.324 301.161 20.084 1.717 340.114

Pipeline 3.471 0.337 1.295 2.438 0.237 12.651 0.764 0.074 11.832 6.673 0.648 25.778

Platforms 7.837 0.761 3.542 0.663 0.064 3.734 0.663 0.064 3.734 9.163 0.890 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.046 0.245 1.416 0.137 17.486 2.360 0.229 285.595 4.248 0.412 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 1.144 5.082 4.517 0.439 33.871 3.788 0.368 301.161 20.084 1.950 340.114

Pipeline 3.471 0.381 1.030 2.438 0.268 10.951 0.764 0.084 10.585 6.673 0.733 22.565

Platforms 7.837 0.861 3.542 0.663 0.073 3.734 0.663 0.073 3.734 9.163 1.007 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.052 0.245 1.416 0.156 17.486 2.360 0.259 285.595 4.248 0.467 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 1.294 4.817 4.517 0.496 32.171 3.788 0.416 299.915 20.084 2.207 336.902

Pipeline 3.471 0.434 1.295 2.438 0.305 12.651 0.764 0.096 11.832 6.673 0.834 25.778

Platforms 7.837 0.980 3.542 0.663 0.083 3.734 0.663 0.083 3.734 9.163 1.145 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.059 0.245 1.416 0.177 17.486 2.360 0.295 285.595 4.248 0.531 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 1.472 5.082 4.517 0.565 33.871 3.788 0.473 301.161 20.084 2.511 340.114

Pipeline 3.471 0.496 1.295 2.438 0.348 12.651 0.764 0.109 11.832 6.673 0.953 25.778

Platforms 7.837 1.120 3.542 0.663 0.095 3.734 0.663 0.095 3.734 9.163 1.309 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.067 0.245 1.416 0.202 17.486 2.360 0.337 285.595 4.248 0.607 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 1.683 5.082 4.517 0.645 33.871 3.788 0.541 301.161 20.084 2.869 340.114

Pipeline 3.471 0.560 1.295 2.438 0.393 12.651 0.764 0.123 11.832 6.673 1.076 25.778

Platforms 7.837 1.264 3.542 0.663 0.107 3.734 0.663 0.107 3.734 9.163 1.478 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.076 0.245 1.416 0.228 17.486 2.360 0.381 285.595 4.248 0.685 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 1.900 5.082 4.517 0.729 33.871 3.788 0.611 301.161 20.084 3.239 340.114

Pipeline 3.471 0.643 1.295 2.438 0.451 12.651 0.764 0.142 11.832 6.673 1.236 25.778

Platforms 7.837 1.451 3.542 0.663 0.123 3.734 0.663 0.123 3.734 9.163 1.697 11.010

Production Wells 0.472 0.087 0.245 1.416 0.262 17.486 2.360 0.437 285.595 4.248 0.787 303.326

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.780 2.181 5.082 4.517 0.837 33.871 3.788 0.701 301.161 20.084 3.719 340.114

Pipeline 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 1.353 5.563

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 1.353 5.563

Pipeline 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 1.353 5.563

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 1.353 5.563

Pipeline 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 1.353 5.563

Platforms

2037

2035

2036

2033 5.4

2034

2031 8.0

2032 7.0

2029 11.7

2030 10.3

2027 17.0

2028 13.3

2025 22.3

2026 19.5

2023 29.3

2024 25.6

2021 34.6

2022 33.6

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4212
Table 4.2.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.611 1.353 5.563

2038

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4212
Table 4.2.13

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2008 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2009 0.097 0.050 0.291 3.581 0.581 77.994 0.872 81.575 0.969 81.626

2010 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.403 106.858 1.584 106.952

2011

2012 0.901 0.435 1.289 15.608 2.020 231.695 3.309 247.304 4.210 247.739

2013 7.9 3.919 0.496 1.709 2.628 0.333 23.297 2.830 0.358 289.035 5.458 0.691 312.332 9.377 1.187 314.040

2014 15.7 5.437 0.346 2.388 2.461 0.157 20.333 2.514 0.160 239.215 4.975 0.317 259.548 10.412 0.663 261.936

2015 15.7 5.327 0.339 2.330 2.129 0.136 16.241 1.849 0.118 150.078 3.978 0.253 166.319 9.305 0.593 168.649

2016 15.7 5.869 0.374 2.577 2.265 0.144 17.625 2.047 0.130 168.947 4.311 0.275 186.572 10.180 0.648 189.149

2017 34.5 12.371 0.359 5.205 5.843 0.169 39.133 3.842 0.111 265.298 9.685 0.281 304.432 22.056 0.639 309.637

2018 39.3 15.983 0.407 6.852 6.747 0.172 48.359 5.157 0.131 391.094 11.904 0.303 439.453 27.887 0.710 446.305

2019 37.4 17.790 0.476 7.675 7.199 0.192 52.972 5.814 0.155 453.991 13.013 0.348 506.964 30.803 0.824 514.639

2020 35.9 17.790 0.496 7.675 7.199 0.201 52.972 5.814 0.162 453.991 13.013 0.362 506.964 30.803 0.858 514.639

2021 34.6 17.790 0.514 7.675 7.199 0.208 52.972 5.814 0.168 453.991 13.013 0.376 506.964 30.803 0.890 514.639

2022 33.6 17.790 0.529 7.675 7.199 0.214 52.972 5.814 0.173 453.991 13.013 0.387 506.964 30.803 0.917 514.639

2023 29.3 17.790 0.607 7.675 7.199 0.246 52.972 5.814 0.198 453.991 13.013 0.444 506.964 30.803 1.051 514.639

2024 25.6 17.790 0.695 7.675 7.199 0.281 52.972 5.814 0.227 453.991 13.013 0.508 506.964 30.803 1.203 514.639

2025 22.3 17.790 0.798 7.675 7.199 0.323 52.972 5.814 0.261 453.991 13.013 0.584 506.964 30.803 1.381 514.639

2026 19.5 17.790 0.912 7.675 7.199 0.369 52.972 5.814 0.298 453.991 13.013 0.667 506.964 30.803 1.580 514.639

2027 17.0 17.790 1.046 7.675 7.199 0.423 52.972 5.814 0.342 453.991 13.013 0.765 506.964 30.803 1.812 514.639

2028 13.3 11.780 0.886 5.082 4.517 0.340 33.871 3.788 0.285 301.161 8.305 0.624 335.032 20.084 1.510 340.114

2029 11.7 11.780 1.007 5.082 4.517 0.386 33.871 3.788 0.324 301.161 8.305 0.710 335.032 20.084 1.717 340.114

2030 10.3 11.780 1.144 5.082 4.517 0.439 33.871 3.788 0.368 301.161 8.305 0.806 335.032 20.084 1.950 340.114

2031 9.1 11.780 1.294 4.817 4.517 0.496 32.171 3.788 0.416 299.915 8.305 0.913 332.085 20.084 2.207 336.902

2032 8.0 11.780 1.472 5.082 4.517 0.565 33.871 3.788 0.473 301.161 8.305 1.038 335.032 20.084 2.511 340.114

2033 7.0 11.780 1.683 5.082 4.517 0.645 33.871 3.788 0.541 301.161 8.305 1.186 335.032 20.084 2.869 340.114

2034 6.2 11.780 1.900 5.082 4.517 0.729 33.871 3.788 0.611 301.16 8.30 1.34 335.03 20.084 3.239 340.114

2035 5.4 11.780 2.181 5.082 4.517 0.837 33.871 3.788 0.701 301.16 8.30 1.54 335.03 20.084 3.719 340.114

2036 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.61 0.69 5.31 1.353 5.563

2037 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.61 0.69 5.31 1.353 5.563

2038 0.664 0.256 0.521 2.697 0.168 2.61 0.69 5.31 1.353 5.563

Total

 LOF 455.0 306.738 132 127.636 957 106.334 8591 233.971 9547 540.709 9679

Average LOF 9.586 0.674 4 3.989 0.281 30 3.323 0.234 268 7.312 0.514 298 16.897 1.188 302

9.586 3.989 3.323 7.312 16.897

0.674 0.281 0.234 0.514 1.188

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4213
Table 4.2.14

Sale 2 - Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 2

Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 17.79 7.20 5.81 13.01 30.80 0.69 0.28 0.23 0.51 1.20 7.67 52.96 453.69 506.66 514.33

Std Deviation = 6.83 2.16 1.31 2.93 7.48 0.27 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.29 5.13 23.80 170.32 172.17 172.29

Variance = 46.600 4.681 1.725 8.582 55.997 0.071 0.007 0.003 0.013 0.085 26.317 566.610 29008.750 29643.960 29682.260

Skewness = 0.58 0.43 0.14 0.21 0.48 0.58 0.43 0.14 0.21 0.48 1.54 0.74 0.51 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.72 2.86 2.80 2.83 2.89 2.72 2.86 2.80 2.83 2.89 6.04 3.58 3.16 3.15 3.15

Mode = 12.21 9.91 5.47 13.21 26.10 0.48 0.26 0.25 0.52 1.03 5.80 49.30 389.48 402.09 342.82

Minimum = 4.831 2.189 1.874 4.503 12.825 0.189 0.086 0.073 0.176 0.501 0 0.276 3.751 58.717 88.681 96.534

5% Perc = 8.519 4.000 3.716 8.381 20.028 0.333 0.156 0.145 0.327 0.782 5 2.066 19.675 202.090 249.695 256.713

10% Perc = 9.679 4.522 4.118 9.211 21.633 0.378 0.177 0.161 0.360 0.845 10 2.685 24.676 248.325 297.692 306.357

15% Perc = 10.648 4.924 4.424 9.899 22.958 0.416 0.192 0.173 0.387 0.897 15 3.146 28.855 281.277 330.409 337.847

20% Perc = 11.529 5.296 4.694 10.467 24.142 0.450 0.207 0.183 0.409 0.943 20 3.588 32.030 309.008 358.422 367.285

25% Perc = 12.406 5.600 4.911 10.966 25.179 0.485 0.219 0.192 0.428 0.984 25 4.003 35.286 333.537 384.893 392.824

30% Perc = 13.295 5.887 5.094 11.392 26.262 0.519 0.230 0.199 0.445 1.026 30 4.457 38.471 355.853 407.446 414.633

35% Perc = 14.076 6.168 5.279 11.794 27.181 0.550 0.241 0.206 0.461 1.062 35 4.896 41.472 376.016 427.396 435.501

40% Perc = 14.831 6.440 5.454 12.168 28.101 0.579 0.252 0.213 0.475 1.098 40 5.358 44.346 394.972 449.188 456.873

45% Perc = 15.752 6.714 5.607 12.503 29.131 0.615 0.262 0.219 0.488 1.138 45 5.765 47.116 415.731 469.861 477.466

50% Perc = 16.729 7.021 5.770 12.884 30.007 0.653 0.274 0.225 0.503 1.172 50 6.246 50.063 434.697 488.852 496.648

55% Perc = 17.711 7.300 5.929 13.250 30.932 0.692 0.285 0.232 0.518 1.208 55 6.798 52.956 458.128 513.130 522.007

60% Perc = 18.759 7.593 6.099 13.646 31.914 0.733 0.297 0.238 0.533 1.247 60 7.434 55.855 481.472 533.978 541.292

65% Perc = 19.836 7.896 6.301 14.088 33.058 0.775 0.308 0.246 0.550 1.291 65 8.064 59.601 503.270 557.875 565.015

70% Perc = 21.007 8.228 6.477 14.516 34.280 0.821 0.321 0.253 0.567 1.339 70 8.990 63.092 528.557 582.581 590.804

75% Perc = 22.338 8.608 6.670 14.980 35.770 0.873 0.336 0.261 0.585 1.397 75 10.019 66.681 558.690 612.608 620.465

80% Perc = 23.776 9.001 6.930 15.523 37.270 0.929 0.352 0.271 0.606 1.456 80 11.185 71.664 591.243 645.516 653.253

85% Perc = 25.573 9.529 7.214 16.116 38.953 0.999 0.372 0.282 0.630 1.522 85 12.642 76.973 629.346 684.181 693.292

90% Perc = 27.770 10.138 7.561 16.860 41.099 1.085 0.396 0.295 0.659 1.605 90 14.535 84.787 682.909 737.664 745.581

95% Perc = 30.251 11.133 8.043 18.040 44.111 1.182 0.435 0.314 0.705 1.723 95 18.094 97.821 764.912 824.193 830.477

Maximum = 41.851 16.064 10.259 24.334 60.734 1.635 0.627 0.401 0.951 2.372 ## 36.237 170.278 1057.850 1138.342 1152.270

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4214
Table 4.2.15

Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 2

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 3.00 2.21 0.70 2.90 5.90 0.21 0.16 0.05 0.20 0.42 1.11 11.38 10.75 22.13 23.24

Std Deviation = 1.06 1.01 0.33 1.06 1.50 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.11 0.74 8.05 5.55 9.72 9.75

Variance = 1.117 1.013 0.108 1.116 2.237 0.006 0.005 0.001 0.006 0.011 0.543 64.802 30.858 94.461 95.105

Skewness = 0.46 0.69 0.64 0.61 0.36 0.46 0.69 0.64 0.61 0.36 1.35 1.40 0.89 0.91 0.90

Kurtosis = 2.67 2.92 2.83 2.96 2.93 2.67 2.92 2.83 2.96 2.93 5.12 5.41 3.53 4.07 4.04

Mode = 2.61 1.70 1.07 3.98 7.04 0.28 0.13 0.08 0.18 0.50 0.71 5.56 6.77 14.90 18.91

Minimum = 0.746 0.332 0.080 0.802 2.094 0.052 0.023 0.006 0.056 0.147 0 0.014 -0.756 1.402 2.681 3.375

5% Perc = 1.472 0.881 0.262 1.431 3.603 0.104 0.062 0.018 0.101 0.253 5 0.272 2.182 3.654 9.116 10.171

10% Perc = 1.706 1.043 0.313 1.651 4.012 0.120 0.073 0.022 0.116 0.282 10 0.364 3.282 4.586 10.971 12.042

15% Perc = 1.884 1.187 0.358 1.815 4.314 0.132 0.084 0.025 0.128 0.303 15 0.443 4.087 5.241 12.598 13.660

20% Perc = 2.032 1.292 0.396 1.967 4.577 0.143 0.091 0.028 0.138 0.322 20 0.512 4.856 5.900 13.885 14.930

25% Perc = 2.170 1.416 0.435 2.107 4.814 0.153 0.100 0.031 0.148 0.339 25 0.574 5.617 6.485 14.991 16.098

30% Perc = 2.314 1.527 0.473 2.234 5.018 0.163 0.107 0.033 0.157 0.353 30 0.638 6.286 7.043 16.097 17.269

35% Perc = 2.461 1.639 0.513 2.359 5.229 0.173 0.115 0.036 0.166 0.368 35 0.705 7.031 7.690 17.273 18.348

40% Perc = 2.601 1.762 0.555 2.485 5.434 0.183 0.124 0.039 0.175 0.382 40 0.768 7.751 8.324 18.333 19.445

45% Perc = 2.736 1.895 0.597 2.607 5.627 0.192 0.133 0.042 0.183 0.396 45 0.860 8.586 8.988 19.401 20.533

50% Perc = 2.888 2.038 0.636 2.737 5.820 0.203 0.143 0.045 0.193 0.409 50 0.930 9.403 9.631 20.525 21.683

55% Perc = 3.027 2.174 0.687 2.885 6.001 0.213 0.153 0.048 0.203 0.422 55 1.012 10.373 10.311 21.711 22.882

60% Perc = 3.177 2.304 0.734 3.050 6.189 0.224 0.162 0.052 0.214 0.435 60 1.104 11.324 11.131 23.083 24.237

65% Perc = 3.339 2.490 0.789 3.198 6.414 0.235 0.175 0.055 0.225 0.451 65 1.204 12.320 12.089 24.619 25.624

70% Perc = 3.525 2.680 0.852 3.389 6.644 0.248 0.188 0.060 0.238 0.467 70 1.326 13.490 13.010 25.923 27.155

75% Perc = 3.723 2.846 0.917 3.592 6.882 0.262 0.200 0.065 0.253 0.484 75 1.463 14.906 13.930 27.679 28.842

80% Perc = 3.946 3.053 0.993 3.796 7.151 0.278 0.215 0.070 0.267 0.503 80 1.619 16.915 15.207 29.698 30.878

85% Perc = 4.185 3.305 1.074 4.056 7.484 0.294 0.232 0.076 0.285 0.526 85 1.821 19.318 16.742 31.966 33.084

90% Perc = 4.466 3.679 1.166 4.404 7.899 0.314 0.259 0.082 0.310 0.556 90 2.132 22.253 18.661 34.835 36.145

95% Perc = 4.910 4.169 1.307 4.909 8.505 0.345 0.293 0.092 0.345 0.598 95 2.590 27.547 21.461 40.519 41.789

Maximum = 7.102 5.957 1.942 7.077 11.816 0.499 0.419 0.137 0.498 0.831 ## 5.137 53.160 35.558 69.169 70.200

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4215
Table 4.2.16

Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 2

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 6.16 0.52 0.52 1.05 7.21 0.43 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.51 2.80 2.93 2.93 5.87 8.66

Std Deviation = 3.49 0.31 0.31 0.61 3.55 0.25 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.25 2.64 2.35 2.35 4.71 5.41

Variance = 12.151 0.093 0.093 0.374 12.574 0.060 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.062 6.970 5.537 5.537 22.147 29.216

Skewness = 0.67 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.67 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 1.69 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.00

Kurtosis = 2.74 2.62 2.62 2.62 2.73 2.74 2.62 2.62 2.62 2.73 6.41 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.01

Mode = 2.51 0.27 0.27 0.53 13.27 0.18 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.27 2.42 1.15 1.15 2.30 3.81

Minimum = 0.545 0.025 0.025 0.051 1.024 0.038 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.072 0 -0.710 -1.022 -1.022 -2.043 -1.735

5% Perc = 1.691 0.130 0.130 0.260 2.562 0.119 0.009 0.009 0.018 0.180 5 0.180 0.289 0.289 0.579 1.881

10% Perc = 2.108 0.166 0.166 0.333 3.083 0.148 0.012 0.012 0.023 0.217 10 0.392 0.536 0.536 1.072 2.748

15% Perc = 2.516 0.199 0.199 0.398 3.502 0.177 0.014 0.014 0.028 0.246 15 0.565 0.751 0.751 1.503 3.373

20% Perc = 2.894 0.234 0.234 0.469 3.922 0.204 0.016 0.016 0.033 0.276 20 0.718 0.962 0.962 1.923 4.020

25% Perc = 3.290 0.270 0.270 0.539 4.311 0.231 0.019 0.019 0.038 0.303 25 0.887 1.166 1.166 2.331 4.577

30% Perc = 3.702 0.308 0.308 0.615 4.769 0.260 0.022 0.022 0.043 0.335 30 1.077 1.353 1.353 2.706 5.133

35% Perc = 4.095 0.346 0.346 0.693 5.197 0.288 0.024 0.024 0.049 0.365 35 1.293 1.569 1.569 3.138 5.704

40% Perc = 4.563 0.384 0.384 0.768 5.622 0.321 0.027 0.027 0.054 0.395 40 1.508 1.813 1.813 3.626 6.296

45% Perc = 5.046 0.423 0.423 0.846 6.089 0.355 0.030 0.030 0.059 0.428 45 1.732 2.080 2.080 4.160 6.950

50% Perc = 5.483 0.465 0.465 0.930 6.596 0.386 0.033 0.033 0.065 0.464 50 1.977 2.306 2.306 4.612 7.533

55% Perc = 6.039 0.508 0.508 1.016 7.121 0.425 0.036 0.036 0.071 0.501 55 2.299 2.598 2.598 5.197 8.262

60% Perc = 6.590 0.557 0.557 1.114 7.679 0.463 0.039 0.039 0.078 0.540 60 2.590 2.912 2.912 5.824 8.994

65% Perc = 7.197 0.611 0.611 1.222 8.260 0.506 0.043 0.043 0.086 0.581 65 2.908 3.252 3.252 6.505 9.809

70% Perc = 7.826 0.668 0.668 1.336 8.893 0.550 0.047 0.047 0.094 0.625 70 3.313 3.682 3.682 7.364 10.754

75% Perc = 8.494 0.733 0.733 1.465 9.543 0.597 0.052 0.052 0.103 0.671 75 3.825 4.127 4.127 8.253 11.694

80% Perc = 9.297 0.801 0.801 1.602 10.359 0.654 0.056 0.056 0.113 0.729 80 4.472 4.650 4.650 9.300 12.834

85% Perc = 10.151 0.882 0.882 1.763 11.221 0.714 0.062 0.062 0.124 0.789 85 5.294 5.382 5.382 10.765 14.241

90% Perc = 11.258 0.972 0.972 1.945 12.384 0.792 0.068 0.068 0.137 0.871 90 6.433 6.278 6.278 12.556 16.262

95% Perc = 12.766 1.105 1.105 2.209 13.919 0.898 0.078 0.078 0.155 0.979 95 8.288 7.688 7.688 15.377 19.175

Maximum = 19.045 1.614 1.614 3.227 19.667 1.339 0.113 0.113 0.227 1.383 ## 17.939 14.094 14.094 28.188 36.110

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4216
Table 4.2.17

Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 2

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 0.42 1.26 2.10 3.37 3.79 0.03 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.22 15.61 254.78 270.39 270.61

Std Deviation = 0.15 0.46 0.56 0.98 0.99 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.15 10.30 94.95 95.74 95.74

Variance = 0.024 0.214 0.310 0.954 0.972 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.005 0.023 105.992 9015.290 9166.066 9165.545

Skewness = -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.79 0.85 0.49 0.47 0.47

Kurtosis = 2.42 2.41 2.71 2.54 2.56 2.42 2.41 2.71 2.54 2.56 3.52 3.49 3.18 3.15 3.15

Mode = 0.45 1.63 1.97 4.37 3.69 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.26 0.26 0.12 13.74 217.66 238.58 238.79

Minimum = 0.041 0.066 0.459 0.774 1.088 0.003 0.005 0.032 0.054 0.077 0 -0.113 -2.826 27.852 38.251 38.540

5% Perc = 0.161 0.486 1.159 1.709 2.117 0.011 0.034 0.082 0.120 0.149 5 0.016 2.205 111.605 125.381 125.723

10% Perc = 0.213 0.634 1.378 2.050 2.466 0.015 0.045 0.097 0.144 0.173 10 0.043 3.791 138.762 152.962 152.991

15% Perc = 0.250 0.750 1.520 2.316 2.752 0.018 0.053 0.107 0.163 0.194 15 0.066 5.367 156.946 173.236 173.498

20% Perc = 0.283 0.847 1.627 2.508 2.927 0.020 0.060 0.114 0.176 0.206 20 0.086 6.473 172.669 187.722 188.107

25% Perc = 0.311 0.932 1.720 2.683 3.096 0.022 0.066 0.121 0.189 0.218 25 0.105 7.762 186.048 202.094 202.440

30% Perc = 0.336 1.002 1.810 2.834 3.255 0.024 0.070 0.127 0.199 0.229 30 0.122 8.922 198.798 213.806 214.044

35% Perc = 0.357 1.075 1.892 2.980 3.398 0.025 0.076 0.133 0.210 0.239 35 0.141 10.132 210.440 226.241 226.514

40% Perc = 0.381 1.141 1.967 3.130 3.542 0.027 0.080 0.138 0.220 0.249 40 0.159 11.292 223.464 237.771 237.899

45% Perc = 0.401 1.206 2.033 3.253 3.671 0.028 0.085 0.143 0.229 0.258 45 0.175 12.531 234.459 249.945 250.215

50% Perc = 0.422 1.268 2.106 3.373 3.791 0.030 0.089 0.148 0.237 0.267 50 0.195 13.838 245.944 262.192 262.543

55% Perc = 0.442 1.323 2.172 3.498 3.917 0.031 0.093 0.153 0.246 0.275 55 0.214 15.073 259.654 274.497 274.704

60% Perc = 0.461 1.383 2.254 3.624 4.044 0.032 0.097 0.159 0.255 0.284 60 0.235 16.576 271.669 286.793 287.114

65% Perc = 0.483 1.448 2.326 3.745 4.163 0.034 0.102 0.164 0.263 0.293 65 0.260 18.184 285.650 302.511 302.631

70% Perc = 0.506 1.520 2.407 3.895 4.316 0.036 0.107 0.169 0.274 0.304 70 0.282 19.900 299.046 315.760 316.013

75% Perc = 0.532 1.598 2.487 4.055 4.474 0.037 0.112 0.175 0.285 0.315 75 0.310 21.639 314.784 331.330 331.740

80% Perc = 0.559 1.678 2.587 4.240 4.674 0.039 0.118 0.182 0.298 0.329 80 0.343 23.675 332.342 348.434 348.671

85% Perc = 0.591 1.772 2.693 4.436 4.877 0.042 0.125 0.189 0.312 0.343 85 0.377 26.260 352.619 370.152 370.324

90% Perc = 0.630 1.888 2.832 4.655 5.084 0.044 0.133 0.199 0.327 0.358 90 0.428 30.099 379.993 397.508 397.889

95% Perc = 0.675 2.027 3.016 4.981 5.406 0.047 0.143 0.212 0.350 0.380 95 0.503 35.846 422.854 440.269 440.374

Maximum = 0.809 2.463 3.712 6.089 6.691 0.057 0.173 0.261 0.428 0.471 ## 0.888 59.502 637.301 643.065 643.266

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4217
Table 4.2.18

Sale 2 LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 2

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 6.58 1.78 2.63 4.41 10.99 0.46 0.13 0.18 0.31 0.77 3.01 18.55 257.72 276.26 279.28

Std Deviation = 3.49 0.55 0.64 1.15 3.68 0.25 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.26 2.64 10.60 95.02 95.95 96.00

Variance = 12.172 0.305 0.404 1.322 13.524 0.060 0.002 0.002 0.007 0.067 6.996 112.352 9028.712 9205.630 9216.547

Skewness = 0.67 0.14 0.08 0.12 0.57 0.67 0.14 0.08 0.12 0.57 1.68 0.80 0.49 0.47 0.47

Kurtosis = 2.74 2.70 2.84 2.76 2.76 2.74 2.70 2.84 2.76 2.76 6.40 3.43 3.18 3.15 3.15

Mode = 3.34 1.63 2.02 5.04 8.76 0.24 0.11 0.14 0.37 0.80 1.29 12.16 220.67 216.50 241.28

Minimum = 0.969 0.338 0.865 1.369 2.881 0.068 0.024 0.061 0.096 0.203 0 -0.557 -2.634 28.118 38.783 40.484

5% Perc = 2.120 0.884 1.563 2.539 5.925 0.149 0.062 0.110 0.179 0.417 5 0.388 4.549 114.253 131.209 133.065

10% Perc = 2.527 1.063 1.809 2.900 6.640 0.178 0.075 0.127 0.204 0.467 10 0.605 6.350 141.310 158.087 161.235

15% Perc = 2.954 1.188 1.968 3.196 7.146 0.208 0.084 0.138 0.225 0.503 15 0.774 7.870 159.730 178.126 180.924

20% Perc = 3.314 1.302 2.083 3.432 7.635 0.233 0.092 0.147 0.241 0.537 20 0.946 9.233 175.484 192.391 195.662

25% Perc = 3.707 1.400 2.197 3.626 8.131 0.261 0.098 0.154 0.255 0.572 25 1.124 10.498 188.947 208.063 210.791

30% Perc = 4.134 1.476 2.286 3.799 8.549 0.291 0.104 0.161 0.267 0.601 30 1.299 11.803 201.508 219.832 223.325

35% Perc = 4.509 1.553 2.374 3.943 9.058 0.317 0.109 0.167 0.277 0.637 35 1.497 12.944 214.466 232.317 235.472

40% Perc = 4.972 1.625 2.465 4.089 9.514 0.350 0.114 0.173 0.288 0.669 40 1.718 14.179 226.969 243.788 246.472

45% Perc = 5.451 1.692 2.526 4.232 9.969 0.383 0.119 0.178 0.298 0.701 45 1.963 15.493 237.825 256.505 259.323

50% Perc = 5.921 1.771 2.605 4.365 10.402 0.416 0.125 0.183 0.307 0.732 50 2.196 16.862 249.231 267.816 271.121

55% Perc = 6.469 1.844 2.690 4.528 10.944 0.455 0.130 0.189 0.318 0.770 55 2.488 18.215 262.181 280.222 283.082

60% Perc = 7.018 1.917 2.776 4.689 11.516 0.494 0.135 0.195 0.330 0.810 60 2.821 19.654 275.161 292.562 296.393

65% Perc = 7.597 1.992 2.867 4.850 12.117 0.534 0.140 0.202 0.341 0.852 65 3.133 21.363 288.555 308.203 311.122

70% Perc = 8.248 2.083 2.965 5.020 12.743 0.580 0.147 0.209 0.353 0.896 70 3.533 22.867 302.048 322.557 324.996

75% Perc = 8.904 2.164 3.068 5.207 13.440 0.626 0.152 0.216 0.366 0.945 75 4.044 24.748 318.008 336.495 339.490

80% Perc = 9.705 2.261 3.164 5.407 14.274 0.683 0.159 0.222 0.380 1.004 80 4.692 26.797 336.256 354.175 357.819

85% Perc = 10.564 2.370 3.300 5.629 15.121 0.743 0.167 0.232 0.396 1.063 85 5.540 29.535 355.711 375.428 379.295

90% Perc = 11.683 2.516 3.449 5.938 16.227 0.822 0.177 0.243 0.418 1.141 90 6.684 33.499 383.207 403.147 405.235

95% Perc = 13.207 2.710 3.697 6.333 17.800 0.929 0.191 0.260 0.445 1.252 95 8.517 39.115 425.621 446.548 448.884

Maximum = 19.838 3.743 4.906 8.649 24.500 1.395 0.263 0.345 0.608 1.723 ## 18.271 63.550 642.802 654.068 659.406

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4218
Table 4.2.19

Sale 2 LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 2

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 9.58 3.99 3.32 7.31 16.90 0.67 0.28 0.23 0.51 1.19 4.13 29.93 268.47 298.39 302.52

Std Deviation = 3.62 1.16 0.72 1.58 3.94 0.25 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.28 2.74 13.25 95.30 96.53 96.60

Variance = 13.132 1.338 0.522 2.498 15.532 0.065 0.007 0.003 0.012 0.077 7.506 175.543 9082.338 9318.563 9330.815

Skewness = 0.61 0.44 0.15 0.19 0.46 0.61 0.44 0.15 0.19 0.46 1.50 0.68 0.49 0.46 0.46

Kurtosis = 2.83 2.88 2.90 2.88 2.81 2.83 2.88 2.90 2.88 2.81 5.75 3.38 3.20 3.17 3.17

Mode = 7.03 5.62 3.43 6.55 17.79 0.56 0.23 0.24 0.46 1.09 4.03 26.69 204.96 301.48 271.41

Minimum = 2.301 1.024 1.234 2.761 6.898 0.162 0.072 0.087 0.194 0.485 0 0.070 0.433 38.838 59.656 62.439

5% Perc = 4.646 2.268 2.160 4.789 11.186 0.327 0.160 0.152 0.337 0.787 5 1.131 11.277 124.220 151.512 154.858

10% Perc = 5.314 2.576 2.385 5.319 12.097 0.374 0.181 0.168 0.374 0.851 10 1.443 14.267 152.223 179.212 182.568

15% Perc = 5.844 2.816 2.566 5.667 12.813 0.411 0.198 0.180 0.399 0.901 15 1.675 16.616 169.756 198.747 202.908

20% Perc = 6.307 2.992 2.714 5.946 13.382 0.444 0.210 0.191 0.418 0.941 20 1.931 18.355 185.677 214.875 218.844

25% Perc = 6.748 3.131 2.824 6.189 13.928 0.475 0.220 0.199 0.435 0.980 25 2.163 20.124 199.882 229.254 233.321

30% Perc = 7.148 3.289 2.926 6.433 14.443 0.503 0.231 0.206 0.452 1.016 30 2.408 21.726 212.430 242.979 247.084

35% Perc = 7.596 3.437 3.021 6.657 14.965 0.534 0.242 0.212 0.468 1.052 35 2.652 23.325 224.550 255.014 259.584

40% Perc = 8.043 3.572 3.119 6.852 15.468 0.566 0.251 0.219 0.482 1.088 40 2.879 24.979 237.653 266.264 270.592

45% Perc = 8.529 3.718 3.212 7.057 15.948 0.600 0.261 0.226 0.496 1.122 45 3.140 26.598 248.318 279.166 282.924

50% Perc = 9.044 3.861 3.307 7.255 16.475 0.636 0.272 0.233 0.510 1.159 50 3.396 28.137 259.294 291.241 295.071

55% Perc = 9.506 4.019 3.405 7.469 17.034 0.669 0.283 0.239 0.525 1.198 55 3.703 29.925 272.786 302.156 306.937

60% Perc = 10.068 4.182 3.496 7.683 17.544 0.708 0.294 0.246 0.540 1.234 60 4.010 31.538 285.574 315.274 319.431

65% Perc = 10.631 4.362 3.589 7.909 18.084 0.748 0.307 0.252 0.556 1.272 65 4.377 33.593 299.513 330.060 334.246

70% Perc = 11.304 4.559 3.695 8.124 18.776 0.795 0.321 0.260 0.571 1.320 70 4.790 35.494 313.544 344.131 347.941

75% Perc = 11.952 4.756 3.797 8.373 19.501 0.841 0.334 0.267 0.589 1.372 75 5.291 37.819 328.438 359.068 362.997

80% Perc = 12.775 4.976 3.916 8.661 20.262 0.898 0.350 0.275 0.609 1.425 80 5.902 40.905 346.838 377.454 381.629

85% Perc = 13.631 5.234 4.077 8.986 21.234 0.959 0.368 0.287 0.632 1.493 85 6.780 44.041 366.589 398.175 402.421

90% Perc = 14.783 5.564 4.286 9.369 22.371 1.040 0.391 0.301 0.659 1.573 90 7.938 48.280 394.892 425.704 429.009

95% Perc = 16.309 6.094 4.559 9.971 24.104 1.147 0.429 0.321 0.701 1.695 95 9.680 54.370 436.412 468.031 472.231

Maximum = 24.401 8.202 6.052 13.006 30.828 1.716 0.577 0.426 0.915 2.168 ## 19.298 88.145 659.449 681.361 687.319

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4219
Table 4.2.20

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 2 - Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 5.521 51% 11.561 86% 0.708 11% 12.269 62% 17.790 58% P/L 5.521 31% 4.096 57% 1.295 22% 5.391 41% 10.912 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 4.096 38% 0.979 7% 2.124 33% 3.103 16% 7.199 23% Platforms 11.561 65% 0.979 14% 0.979 17% 1.957 15% 13.518 44%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 1.295 12% 0.979 7% 3.540 56% 4.519 23% 5.814 19% Wells 0.708 4% 2.124 30% 3.540 61% 5.664 44% 6.372 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 5.391 49% 1.957 14% 5.664 89% 7.622 38% 13.013 42% Platformsand Wells 12.269 69% 3.103 43% 4.519 78% 7.622 59% 19.890 65%

All Spills 10.912 100% 13.518 100% 6.372 100% 19.890 100% 30.803 100% All 17.790 100% 7.199 100% 5.814 100% 13.013 100% 30.803 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.216 51% 0.452 86% 0.028 11% 0.479 62% 0.695 58% P/L 0.216 31% 0.160 57% 0.051 22% 0.211 41% 0.426 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.160 38% 0.038 7% 0.083 33% 0.121 16% 0.281 23% Platforms 0.452 65% 0.038 14% 0.038 17% 0.076 15% 0.528 44%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.051 12% 0.038 7% 0.138 56% 0.177 23% 0.227 19% Wells 0.028 4% 0.083 30% 0.138 61% 0.221 44% 0.249 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.211 49% 0.076 14% 0.221 89% 0.298 38% 0.508 42% Platforms

and Wells 0.479 69% 0.121 43% 0.177 78% 0.298 59% 0.777 65%

All Spills 0.426 100% 0.528 100% 0.249 100% 0.777 100% 1.203 100% All 0.695 100% 0.281 100% 0.227 100% 0.508 100% 1.203 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 2 5% 5 32% 0 0% 6 1% 8 1% P/L 2 27% 21 40% 20 4% 41 8% 43 8%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 21 49% 6 34% 26 6% 32 7% 53 10% Platforms 5 68% 6 10% 6 1% 11 2% 16 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 20 46% 6 34% 428 94% 434 92% 454 88% Wells 0 5% 26 50% 428 94% 455 90% 455 88%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 41 95% 11 68% 455 100% 466 99% 507 99% Platforms

and Wells 6 73% 32 60% 434 96% 466 92% 471 92%

All Spills 43 100% 16 100% 455 100% 471 100% 515 100% All 8 100% 53 100% 454 100% 507 100% 515 100%

Sale 2 - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale 2 - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 2 - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Sale 2 - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale 2 - LYear 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale 2 - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4220
Table 4.2.21

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 2 - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 2.999 51% 6.166 86% 0.421 11% 6.587 60% 9.586 57% P/L 2.999 31% 2.204 55% 0.696 21% 2.901 40% 5.899 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 2.204 37% 0.522 7% 1.262 33% 1.784 16% 3.989 24% Platforms 6.166 64% 0.522 13% 0.522 16% 1.044 14% 7.210 43%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.696 12% 0.522 7% 2.105 56% 2.627 24% 3.323 20% Wells 0.421 4% 1.262 32% 2.105 63% 3.367 46% 3.787 22%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 2.901 49% 1.044 14% 3.367 89% 4.411 40% 7.312 43% Platformsand Wells 6.587 69% 1.784 45% 2.627 79% 4.411 60% 10.998 65%

All Spills 5.899 100% 7.210 100% 3.787 100% 10.998 100% 16.897 100% All 9.586 100% 3.989 100% 3.323 100% 7.312 100% 16.897 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.211 51% 0.434 86% 0.030 11% 0.463 60% 0.674 57% P/L 0.211 31% 0.155 55% 0.049 21% 0.204 40% 0.415 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.155 37% 0.037 7% 0.089 33% 0.125 16% 0.281 24% Platforms 0.434 64% 0.037 13% 0.037 16% 0.073 14% 0.507 43%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.049 12% 0.037 7% 0.148 56% 0.185 24% 0.234 20% Wells 0.030 4% 0.089 32% 0.148 63% 0.237 46% 0.266 22%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.204 49% 0.073 14% 0.237 89% 0.310 40% 0.514 43% Platforms

and Wells 0.463 69% 0.125 45% 0.185 79% 0.310 60% 0.773 65%

All Spills 0.415 100% 0.507 100% 0.266 100% 0.773 100% 1.188 100% All 0.674 100% 0.281 100% 0.234 100% 0.514 100% 1.188 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 1 5% 3 32% 0 0% 3 1% 4 1% P/L 1 27% 11 38% 11 4% 22 7% 23 8%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 11 49% 3 34% 16 6% 19 7% 30 10% Platforms 3 68% 3 10% 3 1% 6 2% 9 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 11 46% 3 34% 255 94% 258 92% 268 89% Wells 0 5% 16 52% 255 95% 270 91% 271 89%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 22 95% 6 68% 270 100% 276 99% 298 99% Platforms

and Wells 3 73% 19 62% 258 96% 276 93% 279 92%

All Spills 23 100% 9 100% 271 100% 279 100% 302 100% All 4 100% 30 100% 268 100% 298 100% 302 100%

Sale 2 - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale 2 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale 2 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 2 - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale 2 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 2 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT4221
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4201

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4202

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4203 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4204 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency - P/L

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4205 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4206 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Index - P/L

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4207 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4208 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4210 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency - Wells

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4209 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Index - Platforms

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4211 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4212 04/01/2005

Sale 2 - Spill Index - Wells

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.13 Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale 2 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale 2 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Index - CDF Sale 2 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale 2 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale 2 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Index - CDF Sale 2 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4213
Figure 4.2.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale 2

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4214
Figure 4.2.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale 2

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4215
Figure 4.2.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale 2

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 2 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4216
Figure 4.2.17

Sale 2 - Year 2024 - Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale 2 - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

44%

35%

21%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 30.803

Sale 2 - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

44%

35%

21%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.203

Sale 2 - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

89%

8%

P/L 3%

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 515

Sale 2- Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

58%

23%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 30.803

Sale 2 - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

23%

58% 19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.203

Sale 2 - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 515

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4217
Figure 4.2.18

Sale 2 - LOF Average Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

56%

24%

20%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.188

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

56%

20%

24%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 16.897

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

35%

22%

43%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 16.897

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

35%

22%

43%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.188

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

8%

3%

89%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 302

Sale 1 - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 302

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF4218
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Beaufort Sea Sale 3
Table 4.3.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Water 

Depth

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2015

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2014

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4301
Table 4.3.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 15 2.433 0.587 0.04 5.826 1.406 0.73 6.476 1.563 8.09 2.087 0.504 7.83

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 30 1.195 0.09 2.848 1.47 3.221 16.67 1.035 16.09

2036

2037

2038

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

2026

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4301
Table 4.3.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 30.8 1.484 0.048 0.106 3.354 0.109 1.715 4.837 0.157 1.820 3.543 0.115 18.372 1.118 0.036 17.336 4.662 0.151 35.708 9.499 0.308 37.529

2020 38.6 1.484 0.038 0.106 3.354 0.087 1.715 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 4.662 0.121 35.708 9.499 0.246 37.529

2021 38.6 1.484 0.038 0.106 3.354 0.087 1.715 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 4.662 0.121 35.708 9.499 0.246 37.529

2022 38.6 1.484 0.038 0.106 3.354 0.087 1.715 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 4.662 0.121 35.708 9.499 0.246 37.529

2023 38.6 1.484 0.038 0.106 3.354 0.087 1.715 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 4.662 0.121 35.708 9.499 0.246 37.529

2024 38.6 1.484 0.038 0.106 3.354 0.087 1.715 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 4.662 0.121 35.708 9.499 0.246 37.529

2025 34.0 1.484 0.044 0.106 3.354 0.099 1.715 4.837 0.142 1.820 3.543 0.104 18.372 1.118 0.033 17.336 4.662 0.137 35.708 9.499 0.279 37.529

2026 29.9 1.484 0.050 0.106 3.354 0.112 1.715 4.837 0.162 1.820 3.543 0.119 18.372 1.118 0.037 17.336 4.662 0.156 35.708 9.499 0.318 37.529

2027 26.3 1.484 0.056 0.106 3.354 0.128 1.715 4.837 0.184 1.820 3.543 0.135 18.372 1.118 0.043 17.336 4.662 0.177 35.708 9.499 0.361 37.529

2028 23.2 1.484 0.064 0.106 3.354 0.145 1.715 4.837 0.209 1.820 3.543 0.153 18.372 1.118 0.048 17.336 4.662 0.201 35.708 9.499 0.409 37.529

2029 20.4 1.484 0.073 0.106 3.354 0.164 1.715 4.837 0.237 1.820 3.543 0.174 18.372 1.118 0.055 17.336 4.662 0.229 35.708 9.499 0.466 37.529

2030 17.9 1.484 0.083 0.106 3.354 0.187 1.715 4.837 0.270 1.820 3.543 0.198 18.372 1.118 0.062 17.336 4.662 0.260 35.708 9.499 0.531 37.529

2031 15.8 1.484 0.094 0.085 3.354 0.212 1.470 4.837 0.306 1.555 3.543 0.224 16.672 1.118 0.071 16.090 4.662 0.295 32.761 9.499 0.601 34.316

2032 13.9 1.484 0.107 0.106 3.354 0.241 1.715 4.837 0.348 1.820 3.543 0.255 18.372 1.118 0.080 17.336 4.662 0.335 35.708 9.499 0.683 37.529

2033 12.2 1.484 0.122 0.106 3.354 0.275 1.715 4.837 0.397 1.820 3.543 0.290 18.372 1.118 0.092 17.336 4.662 0.382 35.708 9.499 0.779 37.529

2034 10.8 1.484 0.137 0.106 3.354 0.311 1.715 4.837 0.448 1.820 3.543 0.328 18.372 1.118 0.104 17.336 4.66 0.43 35.71 9.499 0.880 37.529

2035 9.5 1.484 0.156 0.106 3.354 0.353 1.715 4.837 0.509 1.820 3.543 0.373 18.372 1.118 0.118 17.336 4.66 0.49 35.71 9.499 1.000 37.529

2036 8.3 1.484 0.179 0.106 3.354 0.404 1.715 4.837 0.583 1.820 3.543 0.427 18.372 1.118 0.135 17.336 4.66 0.56 35.71 9.499 1.144 37.529

2037 7.3 1.484 0.203 0.106 3.354 0.459 1.715 4.837 0.663 1.820 3.543 0.485 18.372 1.118 0.153 17.336 4.66 0.64 35.71 9.499 1.301 37.529

2038 6.5 1.484 0.228 0.106 3.354 0.516 1.715 4.837 0.744 1.820 3.543 0.545 18.372 1.118 0.172 17.336 4.66 0.72 35.71 9.499 1.461 37.529

Total

 LOF 459.8 29.674 2 67.074 34 96.748 36 70.866 366 22.367 345 93.233 711 189.981 747

Average LOF 1.023 0.065 0 2.313 0.146 1 3.336 0.210 1 2.444 0.154 13 0.771 0.049 12 3.215 0.203 25 6.551 0.413 26

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4302
Table 4.3.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1 4 1.704 0.681 0.31 0.288 0.115 0.65

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 4 0.681 0.31 0.115 0.65

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 18 1.704 3.067 1.39 0.288 0.519 2.92

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 18 3.067 1.39 0.519 2.92

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 38 1.704 6.474 2.93 0.288 1.096 6.17

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 38 6.474 2.93 1.096 6.17

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 58 1.704 9.881 4.47 0.288 1.672 9.42

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 58 9.881 4.47 1.672 9.42

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4303
Table 4.3.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4303
Table 4.3.4

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.681 0.308 0.115 0.649 0.115 0.649 0.797 0.957

2019 30.8 3.067 0.100 1.386 0.519 0.017 2.923 0.519 0.017 2.923 3.586 0.116 4.308

2020 38.6 6.474 0.168 2.926 1.096 0.028 6.170 1.096 0.028 6.170 7.570 0.196 9.096

2021 38.6 9.881 0.256 4.466 1.672 0.043 9.417 1.672 0.043 9.417 11.554 0.299 13.883

2022 38.6 11.585 0.300 5.235 1.961 0.051 11.041 1.961 0.051 11.041 13.546 0.351 16.276

2023 38.6 11.585 0.300 5.235 1.961 0.051 11.041 1.961 0.051 11.041 13.546 0.351 16.276

2024 38.6 11.585 0.300 5.235 1.961 0.051 11.041 1.961 0.051 11.041 13.546 0.351 16.276

2025 34.0 11.585 0.341 5.235 1.961 0.058 11.041 1.961 0.058 11.041 13.546 0.398 16.276

2026 29.9 11.585 0.387 5.235 1.961 0.066 11.041 1.961 0.066 11.041 13.546 0.453 16.276

2027 26.3 11.585 0.440 5.235 1.961 0.075 11.041 1.961 0.075 11.041 13.546 0.515 16.276

2028 23.2 11.585 0.499 5.235 1.961 0.085 11.041 1.961 0.085 11.041 13.546 0.584 16.276

2029 20.4 11.585 0.568 5.235 1.961 0.096 11.041 1.961 0.096 11.041 13.546 0.664 16.276

2030 17.9 11.585 0.647 5.235 1.961 0.110 11.041 1.961 0.110 11.041 13.546 0.757 16.276

2031 15.8 11.585 0.733 5.235 1.961 0.124 11.041 1.961 0.124 11.041 13.546 0.857 16.276

2032 13.9 11.585 0.833 5.235 1.961 0.141 11.041 1.961 0.141 11.041 13.546 0.975 16.276

2033 12.2 11.585 0.950 5.235 1.961 0.161 11.041 1.961 0.161 11.041 13.546 1.110 16.276

2034 10.8 11.585 1.073 5.235 1.961 0.182 11.041 13.55 1.25 16.28 13.546 1.254 16.276

2035 9.5 11.585 1.219 5.235 1.961 0.206 11.041 13.55 1.43 16.28 13.546 1.426 16.276

2036 8.3 11.585 1.396 5.235 1.961 0.236 11.041 13.55 1.63 16.28 13.546 1.632 16.276

2037 7.3 11.585 1.587 5.235 1.961 0.269 11.041 13.55 1.86 16.28 13.546 1.856 16.276

2038 6.5 11.585 1.782 5.235 1.961 0.302 11.041 13.55 2.08 16.28 13.546 2.084 16.276

Total

 LOF 459.8 217.047 98 36.735 207 94.659 233 253.782 305

Average LOF 7.484 0.472 3 1.267 0.080 7 3.264 0.206 8 8.751 0.552 11

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4304
Table 4.3.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 4 0.103 0.041 0.02 0.718 0.287 1.52 0.308 0.123 8.42 0.205 0.082 16.42

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 4 0.041 0.02 0.287 1.52 0.123 8.42 0.082 16.42

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 18 0.103 0.185 0.10 0.718 1.293 6.84 0.308 0.554 37.87 0.205 0.369 73.88

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 18 0.185 0.10 1.293 6.84 0.554 37.87 0.369 73.88

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 38 0.103 0.390 0.20 0.718 2.730 14.44 0.308 1.170 79.95 0.205 0.780 155.97

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 38 0.390 0.20 2.730 14.44 1.170 79.95 0.780 155.97

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 58 0.103 0.595 0.31 0.718 4.166 22.05 0.308 1.785 122.03 0.205 1.190 238.06

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 58 0.595 0.31 4.166 22.05 1.785 122.03 1.190 238.06

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4305
Table 4.3.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

2024

2025

2026

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

2022

2023

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4305
Table 4.3.6

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.041 0.021 0.123 1.521 0.205 24.834 0.369 26.376

2019 30.8 0.185 0.006 0.096 0.554 0.018 6.842 0.924 0.030 111.755 1.662 0.054 118.693

2020 38.6 0.390 0.010 0.203 1.170 0.030 14.445 1.950 0.051 235.926 3.509 0.091 250.574

2021 38.6 0.595 0.015 0.309 1.785 0.046 22.047 2.976 0.077 360.098 5.356 0.139 382.455

2022 38.6 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 6.280 0.163 448.395

2023 38.6 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 6.280 0.163 448.395

2024 38.6 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 6.280 0.163 448.395

2025 34.0 0.698 0.021 0.362 2.093 0.062 25.849 3.489 0.103 422.184 6.280 0.185 448.395

2026 29.9 0.698 0.023 0.362 2.093 0.070 25.849 3.489 0.117 422.184 6.280 0.210 448.395

2027 26.3 0.698 0.027 0.362 2.093 0.080 25.849 3.489 0.133 422.184 6.280 0.239 448.395

2028 23.2 0.698 0.030 0.362 2.093 0.090 25.849 3.489 0.150 422.184 6.280 0.271 448.395

2029 20.4 0.698 0.034 0.362 2.093 0.103 25.849 3.489 0.171 422.184 6.280 0.308 448.395

2030 17.9 0.698 0.039 0.362 2.093 0.117 25.849 3.489 0.195 422.184 6.280 0.351 448.395

2031 15.8 0.698 0.044 0.362 2.093 0.132 25.849 3.489 0.221 422.184 6.280 0.397 448.395

2032 13.9 0.698 0.050 0.362 2.093 0.151 25.849 3.489 0.251 422.184 6.280 0.452 448.395

2033 12.2 0.698 0.057 0.362 2.093 0.172 25.849 3.489 0.286 422.184 6.280 0.515 448.395

2034 10.8 0.698 0.065 0.362 2.093 0.194 25.849 3.489 0.323 422.184 6.280 0.581 448.395

2035 9.5 0.698 0.073 0.362 2.093 0.220 25.849 3.489 0.367 422.184 6.280 0.661 448.395

2036 8.3 0.698 0.084 0.362 2.093 0.252 25.849 3.489 0.420 422.184 6.280 0.757 448.395

2037 7.3 0.698 0.096 0.362 2.093 0.287 25.849 3.489 0.478 422.184 6.280 0.860 448.395

2038 6.5 0.698 0.107 0.362 2.093 0.322 25.849 3.489 0.537 422.184 6.280 0.966 448.395

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4306
Table 4.3.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.181 0.09 1.266 6.70 0.544 37.18 0.315 62.98

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.181 0.09 1.266 6.70 0.544 37.18 0.315 62.98

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

2026

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4307
Table 4.3.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4307
Table 4.3.8

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2011

2012 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

2013 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

2014

2015 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2016

2017 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2018 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4308
Table 4.3.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 1 0.554 0.055 0.03 3.867 0.387 2.05 1.661 0.166 11.35 1.661 0.166 33.22

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 1 0.055 0.03 0.387 2.05 0.166 11.35 0.166 33.22

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.111 0.06 3.867 0.773 4.09 1.661 0.332 22.70 1.661 0.332 66.43

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.111 0.06 0.773 4.09 0.332 22.70 0.332 66.43

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.111 0.06 3.867 0.773 4.09 1.661 0.332 22.70 1.661 0.332 66.43

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.111 0.06 0.773 4.09 0.332 22.70 0.332 66.43

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2024

2025

2026

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2027

2028

2029

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4309
Table 4.3.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4309
Table 4.3.10

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 0.055 0.029 0.166 2.046 0.332 44.568 0.554 46.643

2014 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 1.107 93.287

2015 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 1.107 93.287

2016

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4310
Table 4.3.11

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2011

2012 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.403 106.858 1.584 106.952

2013 0.236 0.123 0.710 8.746 1.191 144.727 1.901 153.473 2.137 153.596

2014 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 0.997 93.229 1.107 93.287

2015 0.314 0.163 0.944 11.630 1.631 201.815 2.575 213.445 2.889 213.608

2016

2017 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2018 0.245 0.127 0.735 9.057 1.171 137.513 1.906 146.571 2.151 146.698

2019 30.8 0.185 0.006 0.096 0.554 0.018 6.842 0.924 0.030 111.755 1.478 0.048 118.597 1.662 0.054 118.693

2020 38.6 0.390 0.010 0.203 1.170 0.030 14.445 1.950 0.051 235.926 3.119 0.081 250.371 3.509 0.091 250.574

2021 38.6 0.595 0.015 0.309 1.785 0.046 22.047 2.976 0.077 360.098 4.761 0.123 382.145 5.356 0.139 382.455

2022 38.6 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 5.582 0.145 448.033 6.280 0.163 448.395

2023 38.6 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 5.582 0.145 448.033 6.280 0.163 448.395

2024 38.6 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 5.582 0.145 448.033 6.280 0.163 448.395

2025 34.0 0.698 0.021 0.362 2.093 0.062 25.849 3.489 0.103 422.184 5.582 0.164 448.033 6.280 0.185 448.395

2026 29.9 0.698 0.023 0.362 2.093 0.070 25.849 3.489 0.117 422.184 5.582 0.187 448.033 6.280 0.210 448.395

2027 26.3 0.698 0.027 0.362 2.093 0.080 25.849 3.489 0.133 422.184 5.582 0.212 448.033 6.280 0.239 448.395

2028 23.2 0.698 0.030 0.362 2.093 0.090 25.849 3.489 0.150 422.184 5.582 0.241 448.033 6.280 0.271 448.395

2029 20.4 0.698 0.034 0.362 2.093 0.103 25.849 3.489 0.171 422.184 5.582 0.274 448.033 6.280 0.308 448.395

2030 17.9 0.698 0.039 0.362 2.093 0.117 25.849 3.489 0.195 422.184 5.582 0.312 448.033 6.280 0.351 448.395

2031 15.8 0.698 0.044 0.362 2.093 0.132 25.849 3.489 0.221 422.184 5.582 0.353 448.033 6.280 0.397 448.395

2032 13.9 0.698 0.050 0.362 2.093 0.151 25.849 3.489 0.251 422.184 5.582 0.402 448.033 6.280 0.452 448.395

2033 12.2 0.698 0.057 0.362 2.093 0.172 25.849 3.489 0.286 422.184 5.582 0.458 448.033 6.280 0.515 448.395

2034 10.8 0.698 0.065 0.362 2.093 0.194 25.849 3.489 0.323 422.184 5.58 0.52 448.03 6.280 0.581 448.395

2035 9.5 0.698 0.073 0.362 2.093 0.220 25.849 3.489 0.367 422.184 5.58 0.59 448.03 6.280 0.661 448.395

2036 8.3 0.698 0.084 0.362 2.093 0.252 25.849 3.489 0.420 422.184 5.58 0.67 448.03 6.280 0.757 448.395

2037 7.3 0.698 0.096 0.362 2.093 0.287 25.849 3.489 0.478 422.184 5.58 0.76 448.03 6.280 0.860 448.395

2038 6.5 0.698 0.107 0.362 2.093 0.322 25.849 3.489 0.537 422.184 5.58 0.86 448.03 6.280 0.966 448.395

Total

 LOF 459.8 14.481 8 43.449 536 72.393 8759 115.842 9295 130.323 9302

Average LOF 0.499 0.031 0 1.498 0.094 18 2.496 0.157 302 3.995 0.252 321 4.494 0.283 321

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4311
Table 4.3.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Development Wells

Total 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Development Wells 0.055 0.029 0.166 2.046 0.332 44.568 0.554 46.643

Total 0.236 0.123 0.710 8.746 1.191 144.727 2.137 153.596

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 1.107 93.287

Total 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 1.107 93.287

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 1.107 93.287

Total 0.314 0.163 0.944 11.630 1.631 201.815 2.889 213.608

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells

Total 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Pipeline

Platforms 0.681 0.308 0.058 0.325 0.058 0.325 0.797 0.957

Production Wells 0.041 0.021 0.123 1.521 0.205 24.834 0.369 26.376

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells

Total 0.926 0.435 0.793 9.382 1.229 137.838 2.948 147.655

Pipeline 4.837 0.157 1.820 3.543 0.115 18.372 1.118 0.036 17.336 9.499 0.308 37.529

Platforms 3.067 0.100 1.386 0.260 0.008 1.461 0.260 0.008 1.461 3.586 0.116 4.308

Production Wells 0.185 0.006 0.096 0.554 0.018 6.842 0.924 0.030 111.755 1.662 0.054 118.693

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.089 0.263 3.302 4.357 0.141 26.676 2.301 0.075 130.552 14.747 0.479 160.530

Pipeline 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 9.499 0.246 37.529

Platforms 6.474 0.168 2.926 0.548 0.014 3.085 0.548 0.014 3.085 7.570 0.196 9.096

Production Wells 0.390 0.010 0.203 1.170 0.030 14.445 1.950 0.051 235.926 3.509 0.091 250.574

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.701 0.303 4.948 5.261 0.136 35.902 3.616 0.094 256.347 20.578 0.533 297.198

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013

2016

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4312
Table 4.3.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 9.499 0.246 37.529

Platforms 9.881 0.256 4.466 0.836 0.022 4.709 0.836 0.022 4.709 11.554 0.299 13.883

Production Wells 0.595 0.015 0.309 1.785 0.046 22.047 2.976 0.077 360.098 5.356 0.139 382.455

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 15.314 0.397 6.595 6.165 0.160 45.128 4.930 0.128 382.143 26.409 0.684 433.866

Pipeline 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 9.499 0.246 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.300 5.235 0.980 0.025 5.520 0.980 0.025 5.520 13.546 0.351 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 6.280 0.163 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.444 7.418 6.617 0.171 49.741 5.588 0.145 445.040 29.325 0.760 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 9.499 0.246 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.300 5.235 0.980 0.025 5.520 0.980 0.025 5.520 13.546 0.351 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 6.280 0.163 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.444 7.418 6.617 0.171 49.741 5.588 0.145 445.040 29.325 0.760 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.125 1.820 3.543 0.092 18.372 1.118 0.029 17.336 9.499 0.246 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.300 5.235 0.980 0.025 5.520 0.980 0.025 5.520 13.546 0.351 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.018 0.362 2.093 0.054 25.849 3.489 0.090 422.184 6.280 0.163 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.444 7.418 6.617 0.171 49.741 5.588 0.145 445.040 29.325 0.760 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.142 1.820 3.543 0.104 18.372 1.118 0.033 17.336 9.499 0.279 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.341 5.235 0.980 0.029 5.520 0.980 0.029 5.520 13.546 0.398 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.021 0.362 2.093 0.062 25.849 3.489 0.103 422.184 6.280 0.185 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.504 7.418 6.617 0.195 49.741 5.588 0.164 445.040 29.325 0.862 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.162 1.820 3.543 0.119 18.372 1.118 0.037 17.336 9.499 0.318 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.387 5.235 0.980 0.033 5.520 0.980 0.033 5.520 13.546 0.453 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.023 0.362 2.093 0.070 25.849 3.489 0.117 422.184 6.280 0.210 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.573 7.418 6.617 0.221 49.741 5.588 0.187 445.040 29.325 0.981 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.184 1.820 3.543 0.135 18.372 1.118 0.043 17.336 9.499 0.361 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.440 5.235 0.980 0.037 5.520 0.980 0.037 5.520 13.546 0.515 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.027 0.362 2.093 0.080 25.849 3.489 0.133 422.184 6.280 0.239 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.651 7.418 6.617 0.252 49.741 5.588 0.212 445.040 29.325 1.115 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.209 1.820 3.543 0.153 18.372 1.118 0.048 17.336 9.499 0.409 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.499 5.235 0.980 0.042 5.520 0.980 0.042 5.520 13.546 0.584 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.030 0.362 2.093 0.090 25.849 3.489 0.150 422.184 6.280 0.271 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.738 7.418 6.617 0.285 49.741 5.588 0.241 445.040 29.325 1.264 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.237 1.820 3.543 0.174 18.372 1.118 0.055 17.336 9.499 0.466 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.568 5.235 0.980 0.048 5.520 0.980 0.048 5.520 13.546 0.664 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.034 0.362 2.093 0.103 25.849 3.489 0.171 422.184 6.280 0.308 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.839 7.418 6.617 0.324 49.741 5.588 0.274 445.040 29.325 1.437 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.270 1.820 3.543 0.198 18.372 1.118 0.062 17.336 9.499 0.531 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.647 5.235 0.980 0.055 5.520 0.980 0.055 5.520 13.546 0.757 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.039 0.362 2.093 0.117 25.849 3.489 0.195 422.184 6.280 0.351 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 0.956 7.418 6.617 0.370 49.741 5.588 0.312 445.040 29.325 1.638 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.306 1.555 3.543 0.224 16.672 1.118 0.071 16.090 9.499 0.601 34.316

Platforms 11.585 0.733 5.235 0.980 0.062 5.520 0.980 0.062 5.520 13.546 0.857 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.044 0.362 2.093 0.132 25.849 3.489 0.221 422.184 6.280 0.397 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 1.084 7.153 6.617 0.419 48.041 5.588 0.354 443.794 29.325 1.856 498.987

Pipeline 4.837 0.348 1.820 3.543 0.255 18.372 1.118 0.080 17.336 9.499 0.683 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.833 5.235 0.980 0.071 5.520 0.980 0.071 5.520 13.546 0.975 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.050 0.362 2.093 0.151 25.849 3.489 0.251 422.184 6.280 0.452 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 1.232 7.418 6.617 0.476 49.741 5.588 0.402 445.040 29.325 2.110 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.397 1.820 3.543 0.290 18.372 1.118 0.092 17.336 9.499 0.779 37.529

Platforms 11.585 0.950 5.235 0.980 0.080 5.520 0.980 0.080 5.520 13.546 1.110 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.057 0.362 2.093 0.172 25.849 3.489 0.286 422.184 6.280 0.515 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 1.403 7.418 6.617 0.542 49.741 5.588 0.458 445.040 29.325 2.404 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.448 1.820 3.543 0.328 18.372 1.118 0.104 17.336 9.499 0.880 37.529

Platforms 11.585 1.073 5.235 0.980 0.091 5.520 0.980 0.091 5.520 13.546 1.254 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.065 0.362 2.093 0.194 25.849 3.489 0.323 422.184 6.280 0.581 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 1.585 7.418 6.617 0.613 49.741 5.588 0.517 445.040 29.325 2.715 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.509 1.820 3.543 0.373 18.372 1.118 0.118 17.336 9.499 1.000 37.529

Platforms 11.585 1.219 5.235 0.980 0.103 5.520 0.980 0.103 5.520 13.546 1.426 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.073 0.362 2.093 0.220 25.849 3.489 0.367 422.184 6.280 0.661 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 1.802 7.418 6.617 0.697 49.741 5.588 0.588 445.040 29.325 3.087 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.583 1.820 3.543 0.427 18.372 1.118 0.135 17.336 9.499 1.144 37.529

Platforms 11.585 1.396 5.235 0.980 0.118 5.520 0.980 0.118 5.520 13.546 1.632 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.084 0.362 2.093 0.252 25.849 3.489 0.420 422.184 6.280 0.757 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 2.063 7.418 6.617 0.797 49.741 5.588 0.673 445.040 29.325 3.533 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.663 1.820 3.543 0.485 18.372 1.118 0.153 17.336 9.499 1.301 37.529

Platforms 11.585 1.587 5.235 0.980 0.134 5.520 0.980 0.134 5.520 13.546 1.856 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.096 0.362 2.093 0.287 25.849 3.489 0.478 422.184 6.280 0.860 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 2.345 7.418 6.617 0.906 49.741 5.588 0.765 445.040 29.325 4.017 502.200

Pipeline 4.837 0.744 1.820 3.543 0.545 18.372 1.118 0.172 17.336 9.499 1.461 37.529

Platforms 11.585 1.782 5.235 0.980 0.151 5.520 0.980 0.151 5.520 13.546 2.084 16.276

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 13.9

2032 12.2

2033 9.5

2034 8.3

2035 6.5

2036

2037

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4312
Table 4.3.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Production Wells 0.698 0.107 0.362 2.093 0.322 25.849 3.489 0.537 422.184 6.280 0.966 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.120 2.634 7.418 6.617 1.018 49.741 5.588 0.860 445.040 29.325 4.511 502.200

2038

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4312
Table 4.3.13

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2011

2012 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.403 106.858 1.584 106.952

2013 0.236 0.123 0.710 8.746 1.191 144.727 1.901 153.473 2.137 153.596

2014 0.111 0.058 0.332 4.093 0.664 89.136 0.997 93.229 1.107 93.287

2015 0.314 0.163 0.944 11.630 1.631 201.815 2.575 213.445 2.889 213.608

2016

2017 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2018 0.926 0.435 0.793 9.382 1.229 137.838 2.022 147.220 2.948 147.655

2019 30.8 8.089 0.263 3.302 4.357 0.141 26.676 2.301 0.075 130.552 6.658 0.216 157.228 14.747 0.479 160.530

2020 38.6 11.701 0.303 4.948 5.261 0.136 35.902 3.616 0.094 256.347 8.877 0.230 292.249 20.578 0.533 297.198

2021 38.6 15.314 0.397 6.595 6.165 0.160 45.128 4.930 0.128 382.143 11.095 0.287 427.271 26.409 0.684 433.866

2022 38.6 17.120 0.444 7.418 6.617 0.171 49.741 5.588 0.145 445.040 12.205 0.316 494.782 29.325 0.760 502.200

2023 38.6 17.120 0.444 7.418 6.617 0.171 49.741 5.588 0.145 445.040 12.205 0.316 494.782 29.325 0.760 502.200

2024 38.6 17.120 0.444 7.418 6.617 0.171 49.741 5.588 0.145 445.040 12.205 0.316 494.782 29.325 0.760 502.200

2025 34.0 17.120 0.504 7.418 6.617 0.195 49.741 5.588 0.164 445.040 12.205 0.359 494.782 29.325 0.862 502.200

2026 29.9 17.120 0.573 7.418 6.617 0.221 49.741 5.588 0.187 445.040 12.205 0.408 494.782 29.325 0.981 502.200

2027 26.3 17.120 0.651 7.418 6.617 0.252 49.741 5.588 0.212 445.040 12.205 0.464 494.782 29.325 1.115 502.200

2028 23.2 17.120 0.738 7.418 6.617 0.285 49.741 5.588 0.241 445.040 12.205 0.526 494.782 29.325 1.264 502.200

2029 20.4 17.120 0.839 7.418 6.617 0.324 49.741 5.588 0.274 445.040 12.205 0.598 494.782 29.325 1.437 502.200

2030 17.9 17.120 0.956 7.418 6.617 0.370 49.741 5.588 0.312 445.040 12.205 0.682 494.782 29.325 1.638 502.200

2031 15.8 17.120 1.084 7.153 6.617 0.419 48.041 5.588 0.354 443.794 12.205 0.772 491.835 29.325 1.856 498.987

2032 13.9 17.120 1.232 7.418 6.617 0.476 49.741 5.588 0.402 445.040 12.205 0.878 494.782 29.325 2.110 502.200

2033 12.2 17.120 1.403 7.418 6.617 0.542 49.741 5.588 0.458 445.040 12.205 1.000 494.782 29.325 2.404 502.200

2034 10.8 17.120 1.585 7.418 6.617 0.613 49.741 5.588 0.517 445.04 12.20 1.13 494.78 29.325 2.715 502.200

2035 9.5 17.120 1.802 7.418 6.617 0.697 49.741 5.588 0.588 445.04 12.20 1.28 494.78 29.325 3.087 502.200

2036 8.3 17.120 2.063 7.418 6.617 0.797 49.741 5.588 0.673 445.04 12.20 1.47 494.78 29.325 3.533 502.200

2037 7.3 17.120 2.345 7.418 6.617 0.906 49.741 5.588 0.765 445.04 12.20 1.67 494.78 29.325 4.017 502.200

2038 6.5 17.120 2.634 7.418 6.617 1.018 49.741 5.588 0.860 445.04 12.20 1.88 494.78 29.325 4.511 502.200

Total

 LOF 459.8 328.275 142 132.682 1006 113.128 9207 245.810 10213 574.085 10355

Average LOF 11.320 0.714 5 4.575 0.289 35 3.901 0.246 317 8.476 0.535 352 19.796 1.249 357

11.320 4.575 3.901 8.476 19.796

0.714 0.289 0.246 0.535 1.249

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4313
Table 4.3.14

Sale 3 - Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 3

Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 17.15 6.62 5.59 12.20 29.35 0.44 0.17 0.14 0.32 0.76 7.46 49.75 444.95 494.70 502.16

Std Deviation = 6.95 1.91 1.29 2.73 7.46 0.18 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.19 5.21 22.17 168.88 170.40 170.40

Variance = 48.331 3.663 1.671 7.479 55.687 0.032 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.037 27.176 491.361 28520.880 29036.500 29037.550

Skewness = 0.68 0.42 0.13 0.19 0.56 0.68 0.42 0.13 0.19 0.56 1.56 0.70 0.55 0.54 0.54

Kurtosis = 2.93 2.92 2.87 2.86 2.96 2.93 2.92 2.87 2.86 2.96 5.92 3.42 3.32 3.34 3.34

Mode = 11.30 5.97 4.86 11.46 20.46 0.29 0.15 0.14 0.30 0.53 3.51 44.63 389.78 639.06 430.80

Minimum = 4.514 1.446 1.768 3.922 11.711 0.117 0.037 0.046 0.102 0.303 0 -0.173 1.702 50.934 67.289 69.579

5% Perc = 7.863 3.765 3.492 7.786 18.981 0.204 0.098 0.090 0.202 0.492 5 1.905 18.686 193.221 243.635 250.665

10% Perc = 9.088 4.289 3.929 8.780 20.432 0.235 0.111 0.102 0.227 0.529 10 2.445 23.737 238.928 288.369 296.606

15% Perc = 10.069 4.671 4.244 9.369 21.585 0.261 0.121 0.110 0.243 0.559 15 2.932 27.163 273.248 321.060 327.734

20% Perc = 10.837 4.969 4.478 9.843 22.760 0.281 0.129 0.116 0.255 0.590 20 3.385 30.511 301.653 347.931 354.937

25% Perc = 11.668 5.221 4.688 10.259 23.749 0.302 0.135 0.121 0.266 0.615 25 3.769 33.324 323.544 372.319 379.292

30% Perc = 12.497 5.492 4.883 10.676 24.635 0.324 0.142 0.126 0.277 0.638 30 4.183 36.107 346.435 394.373 402.362

35% Perc = 13.284 5.740 5.065 11.019 25.504 0.344 0.149 0.131 0.285 0.661 35 4.634 38.576 365.947 415.980 423.407

40% Perc = 14.182 5.958 5.233 11.415 26.549 0.367 0.154 0.136 0.296 0.688 40 5.027 41.467 386.932 436.865 443.840

45% Perc = 15.085 6.186 5.410 11.773 27.389 0.391 0.160 0.140 0.305 0.710 45 5.465 44.405 407.158 456.638 463.962

50% Perc = 15.971 6.410 5.577 12.117 28.424 0.414 0.166 0.144 0.314 0.736 50 5.941 47.115 428.121 477.697 485.850

55% Perc = 16.980 6.664 5.729 12.452 29.389 0.440 0.173 0.148 0.323 0.761 55 6.533 49.993 449.208 501.359 509.704

60% Perc = 17.922 6.924 5.884 12.814 30.451 0.464 0.179 0.152 0.332 0.789 60 7.144 52.718 473.266 524.312 532.597

65% Perc = 19.033 7.209 6.050 13.199 31.531 0.493 0.187 0.157 0.342 0.817 65 7.886 55.897 496.962 548.284 555.859

70% Perc = 20.218 7.517 6.220 13.585 32.875 0.524 0.195 0.161 0.352 0.852 70 8.736 59.368 520.885 571.497 579.635

75% Perc = 21.426 7.854 6.420 14.008 34.126 0.555 0.203 0.166 0.363 0.884 75 9.663 62.799 548.987 598.756 607.913

80% Perc = 23.040 8.237 6.678 14.501 35.532 0.597 0.213 0.173 0.376 0.921 80 10.892 67.172 582.145 631.668 638.155

85% Perc = 24.870 8.692 6.930 15.078 37.405 0.644 0.225 0.180 0.391 0.969 85 12.482 72.320 619.543 668.454 675.712

90% Perc = 27.351 9.305 7.283 15.804 39.897 0.709 0.241 0.189 0.409 1.034 90 14.629 79.633 670.671 723.316 730.384

95% Perc = 30.405 10.062 7.793 16.906 43.009 0.788 0.261 0.202 0.438 1.114 95 18.152 91.198 748.713 801.612 807.301

Maximum = 42.173 14.210 10.229 21.953 56.008 1.093 0.368 0.265 0.569 1.451 ## 37.282 141.618 1164.348 1216.713 1226.178

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4314
Table 4.3.15

Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 3

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 3.34 2.45 0.77 3.22 6.55 0.21 0.15 0.05 0.20 0.41 1.25 12.62 11.95 24.56 25.81

Std Deviation = 1.16 1.10 0.37 1.15 1.65 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.10 0.82 8.82 6.19 10.78 10.82

Variance = 1.343 1.210 0.135 1.333 2.739 0.005 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.681 77.878 38.356 116.315 117.138

Skewness = 0.47 0.63 0.69 0.55 0.38 0.47 0.63 0.69 0.55 0.38 1.32 1.35 0.87 0.89 0.88

Kurtosis = 2.74 2.84 2.90 2.83 2.88 2.74 2.84 2.90 2.83 2.88 5.05 5.19 3.46 3.89 3.86

Mode = 3.18 1.82 1.55 2.60 5.63 0.20 0.11 0.10 0.17 0.40 0.65 7.47 5.71 16.79 30.39

Minimum = 0.753 0.386 0.099 0.804 2.557 0.048 0.024 0.006 0.051 0.161 0 -0.124 -1.500 1.169 2.638 3.815

5% Perc = 1.646 0.985 0.291 1.615 4.104 0.104 0.062 0.018 0.102 0.259 5 0.311 2.556 4.136 10.085 11.325

10% Perc = 1.918 1.152 0.351 1.830 4.509 0.121 0.073 0.022 0.115 0.284 10 0.406 3.688 5.076 12.273 13.501

15% Perc = 2.129 1.301 0.397 2.000 4.829 0.134 0.082 0.025 0.126 0.305 15 0.494 4.521 5.759 13.956 15.189

20% Perc = 2.294 1.445 0.442 2.164 5.076 0.145 0.091 0.028 0.136 0.320 20 0.574 5.301 6.442 15.394 16.619

25% Perc = 2.451 1.577 0.481 2.324 5.316 0.155 0.099 0.030 0.147 0.335 25 0.648 6.140 7.088 16.688 17.863

30% Perc = 2.601 1.706 0.524 2.462 5.559 0.164 0.108 0.033 0.155 0.350 30 0.708 6.957 7.762 17.885 19.082

35% Perc = 2.752 1.832 0.565 2.614 5.779 0.174 0.116 0.036 0.165 0.364 35 0.781 7.685 8.481 19.061 20.327

40% Perc = 2.900 1.973 0.610 2.771 6.001 0.183 0.124 0.038 0.175 0.378 40 0.858 8.558 9.184 20.284 21.487

45% Perc = 3.045 2.115 0.657 2.918 6.221 0.192 0.133 0.041 0.184 0.392 45 0.941 9.461 9.899 21.580 22.766

50% Perc = 3.190 2.269 0.702 3.068 6.421 0.201 0.143 0.044 0.194 0.405 50 1.027 10.614 10.676 22.892 24.233

55% Perc = 3.350 2.427 0.758 3.222 6.654 0.211 0.153 0.048 0.203 0.420 55 1.127 11.616 11.493 24.273 25.536

60% Perc = 3.527 2.586 0.814 3.397 6.877 0.222 0.163 0.051 0.214 0.434 60 1.244 12.652 12.454 25.504 26.868

65% Perc = 3.704 2.756 0.874 3.592 7.113 0.234 0.174 0.055 0.227 0.449 65 1.367 13.929 13.408 26.932 28.244

70% Perc = 3.925 2.958 0.947 3.770 7.375 0.248 0.187 0.060 0.238 0.465 70 1.502 15.290 14.451 28.572 29.905

75% Perc = 4.119 3.181 1.016 3.974 7.651 0.260 0.201 0.064 0.251 0.483 75 1.660 16.802 15.825 30.628 31.868

80% Perc = 4.336 3.418 1.091 4.226 7.950 0.273 0.216 0.069 0.267 0.501 80 1.844 18.553 17.239 32.826 33.997

85% Perc = 4.621 3.694 1.191 4.513 8.311 0.291 0.233 0.075 0.285 0.524 85 2.062 21.055 18.736 35.694 37.027

90% Perc = 4.969 4.034 1.303 4.824 8.812 0.313 0.254 0.082 0.304 0.556 90 2.356 24.634 20.692 39.409 40.748

95% Perc = 5.420 4.507 1.464 5.337 9.492 0.342 0.284 0.092 0.337 0.599 95 2.922 30.332 23.646 45.157 46.562

Maximum = 7.573 6.484 2.082 7.272 13.512 0.478 0.409 0.131 0.459 0.852 ## 5.918 62.559 40.588 76.588 77.120

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4315
Table 4.3.16

Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 3

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 7.49 0.63 0.63 1.27 8.75 0.47 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.55 3.38 3.56 3.56 7.12 10.50

Std Deviation = 4.27 0.38 0.38 0.75 4.34 0.27 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.27 3.21 2.88 2.88 5.75 6.58

Variance = 18.238 0.141 0.141 0.563 18.795 0.073 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.075 10.324 8.278 8.278 33.110 43.316

Skewness = 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.71 1.82 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.05

Kurtosis = 2.97 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.99 2.97 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.99 7.27 4.97 4.97 4.97 4.17

Mode = 9.06 0.28 0.28 0.55 7.94 0.57 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.50 1.05 2.86 2.86 5.72 5.37

Minimum = 0.572 0.033 0.033 0.065 0.871 0.036 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.055 0 -0.876 -1.443 -1.443 -2.885 -1.427

5% Perc = 1.988 0.152 0.152 0.304 3.026 0.125 0.010 0.010 0.019 0.191 5 0.230 0.373 0.373 0.745 2.394

10% Perc = 2.599 0.207 0.207 0.415 3.733 0.164 0.013 0.013 0.026 0.235 10 0.451 0.678 0.678 1.355 3.262

15% Perc = 3.093 0.250 0.250 0.501 4.341 0.195 0.016 0.016 0.032 0.274 15 0.662 0.923 0.923 1.847 4.144

20% Perc = 3.607 0.288 0.288 0.575 4.819 0.228 0.018 0.018 0.036 0.304 20 0.891 1.160 1.160 2.320 4.893

25% Perc = 4.000 0.326 0.326 0.653 5.347 0.252 0.021 0.021 0.041 0.337 25 1.106 1.390 1.390 2.780 5.555

30% Perc = 4.456 0.369 0.369 0.739 5.820 0.281 0.023 0.023 0.047 0.367 30 1.349 1.646 1.646 3.292 6.247

35% Perc = 5.004 0.412 0.412 0.823 6.330 0.316 0.026 0.026 0.052 0.399 35 1.566 1.894 1.894 3.788 6.964

40% Perc = 5.584 0.460 0.460 0.919 6.868 0.352 0.029 0.029 0.058 0.433 40 1.854 2.179 2.179 4.359 7.624

45% Perc = 6.131 0.508 0.508 1.016 7.425 0.387 0.032 0.032 0.064 0.468 45 2.154 2.502 2.502 5.005 8.339

50% Perc = 6.751 0.559 0.559 1.118 7.981 0.426 0.035 0.035 0.071 0.503 50 2.435 2.824 2.824 5.648 9.137

55% Perc = 7.328 0.618 0.618 1.237 8.574 0.462 0.039 0.039 0.078 0.541 55 2.791 3.151 3.151 6.302 9.939

60% Perc = 7.956 0.676 0.676 1.352 9.202 0.502 0.043 0.043 0.085 0.580 60 3.138 3.532 3.532 7.064 10.824

65% Perc = 8.645 0.740 0.740 1.481 9.949 0.545 0.047 0.047 0.093 0.627 65 3.516 3.919 3.919 7.837 11.765

70% Perc = 9.448 0.806 0.806 1.612 10.696 0.596 0.051 0.051 0.102 0.675 70 4.019 4.458 4.458 8.916 12.860

75% Perc = 10.216 0.882 0.882 1.763 11.614 0.644 0.056 0.056 0.111 0.733 75 4.567 4.998 4.998 9.997 14.161

80% Perc = 11.222 0.960 0.960 1.921 12.438 0.708 0.061 0.061 0.121 0.784 80 5.376 5.629 5.629 11.258 15.511

85% Perc = 12.241 1.058 1.058 2.117 13.600 0.772 0.067 0.067 0.134 0.858 85 6.272 6.477 6.477 12.954 17.283

90% Perc = 13.585 1.168 1.168 2.335 14.956 0.857 0.074 0.074 0.147 0.943 90 7.545 7.619 7.619 15.238 19.721

95% Perc = 15.713 1.337 1.337 2.675 17.020 0.991 0.084 0.084 0.169 1.073 95 9.888 9.320 9.320 18.639 23.384

Maximum = 26.100 2.141 2.141 4.282 26.617 1.646 0.135 0.135 0.270 1.679 ## 23.197 20.434 20.434 40.868 43.266

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4316
Table 4.3.17

Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 3

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.99 4.49 0.03 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.28 0.26 18.48 301.94 320.42 320.68

Std Deviation = 0.18 0.55 0.66 1.16 1.18 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.18 12.15 110.86 111.51 111.51

Variance = 0.034 0.306 0.438 1.351 1.383 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.006 0.032 147.521 ######## ######## ########

Skewness = -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.79 0.85 0.41 0.40 0.40

Kurtosis = 2.42 2.41 2.69 2.53 2.57 2.42 2.41 2.69 2.53 2.57 3.49 3.54 3.08 3.09 3.09

Mode = 0.52 1.44 2.10 4.20 5.13 0.03 0.09 0.13 0.30 0.30 0.29 8.87 419.24 153.40 315.13

Minimum = 0.034 0.095 0.346 0.511 0.938 0.002 0.006 0.022 0.032 0.059 0 -0.104 -3.825 32.932 50.900 51.114

5% Perc = 0.193 0.567 1.396 2.063 2.533 0.012 0.036 0.088 0.130 0.160 5 0.019 2.693 134.343 150.925 151.044

10% Perc = 0.251 0.747 1.622 2.438 2.945 0.016 0.047 0.102 0.154 0.186 10 0.053 4.571 164.872 181.998 182.288

15% Perc = 0.294 0.889 1.802 2.741 3.213 0.019 0.056 0.114 0.173 0.203 15 0.078 6.291 186.820 204.874 204.981

20% Perc = 0.334 0.999 1.919 2.965 3.453 0.021 0.063 0.121 0.187 0.218 20 0.105 7.695 206.109 223.608 223.808

25% Perc = 0.366 1.100 2.039 3.180 3.665 0.023 0.069 0.129 0.201 0.231 25 0.126 9.295 222.241 239.745 240.042

30% Perc = 0.398 1.192 2.137 3.354 3.847 0.025 0.075 0.135 0.212 0.243 30 0.145 10.640 237.108 255.391 255.744

35% Perc = 0.426 1.286 2.228 3.517 4.023 0.027 0.081 0.141 0.222 0.254 35 0.166 12.001 252.813 271.018 271.107

40% Perc = 0.452 1.355 2.319 3.679 4.176 0.029 0.085 0.146 0.232 0.263 40 0.188 13.571 266.991 286.873 287.420

45% Perc = 0.478 1.427 2.407 3.857 4.347 0.030 0.090 0.152 0.243 0.274 45 0.208 14.919 281.099 299.051 299.230

50% Perc = 0.500 1.501 2.499 4.002 4.513 0.032 0.095 0.158 0.252 0.285 50 0.231 16.356 294.367 312.739 313.106

55% Perc = 0.523 1.573 2.589 4.161 4.655 0.033 0.099 0.163 0.262 0.294 55 0.251 17.950 306.758 326.225 326.601

60% Perc = 0.549 1.647 2.684 4.317 4.807 0.035 0.104 0.169 0.272 0.303 60 0.277 19.523 321.573 340.472 340.883

65% Perc = 0.572 1.718 2.770 4.476 4.962 0.036 0.108 0.175 0.282 0.313 65 0.305 21.306 337.413 356.055 356.262

70% Perc = 0.601 1.800 2.866 4.633 5.154 0.038 0.114 0.181 0.292 0.325 70 0.336 23.333 354.586 372.705 372.934

75% Perc = 0.632 1.890 2.970 4.821 5.333 0.040 0.119 0.187 0.304 0.336 75 0.365 25.474 373.074 393.549 393.869

80% Perc = 0.666 2.000 3.074 5.029 5.536 0.042 0.126 0.194 0.317 0.349 80 0.401 28.255 393.550 412.867 412.946

85% Perc = 0.705 2.106 3.203 5.261 5.759 0.044 0.133 0.202 0.332 0.363 85 0.441 31.615 418.337 437.308 437.533

90% Perc = 0.746 2.250 3.357 5.538 6.039 0.047 0.142 0.212 0.349 0.381 90 0.503 35.454 448.826 467.472 467.820

95% Perc = 0.805 2.418 3.568 5.890 6.413 0.051 0.152 0.225 0.371 0.404 95 0.601 41.904 497.630 517.591 518.248

Maximum = 0.970 2.838 4.461 7.190 7.878 0.061 0.179 0.281 0.453 0.497 ## 1.022 72.491 759.610 777.649 777.744

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4317
Table 4.3.18

Sale 3 LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 3

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 7.99 2.13 3.13 5.26 13.25 0.50 0.13 0.20 0.33 0.84 3.64 22.04 305.50 327.54 331.18

Std Deviation = 4.28 0.68 0.77 1.40 4.52 0.27 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.29 3.22 12.53 110.92 111.71 111.72

Variance = 18.325 0.460 0.593 1.971 20.434 0.073 0.002 0.002 0.008 0.081 10.360 157.033 ######## ######## ########

Skewness = 0.73 0.13 0.06 0.10 0.64 0.73 0.13 0.06 0.10 0.64 1.82 0.79 0.41 0.40 0.40

Kurtosis = 2.98 2.69 2.80 2.73 2.98 2.98 2.69 2.80 2.73 2.98 7.27 3.47 3.08 3.08 3.08

Mode = 8.04 2.62 3.29 8.56 11.51 0.27 0.17 0.25 0.54 0.73 0.64 19.67 293.73 403.59 305.61

Minimum = 0.692 0.379 0.699 1.149 3.299 0.044 0.024 0.044 0.072 0.208 0 -0.827 -2.156 34.155 52.622 53.361

5% Perc = 2.471 1.013 1.876 2.958 7.074 0.156 0.064 0.118 0.187 0.446 5 0.461 5.374 138.048 157.130 161.263

10% Perc = 3.111 1.253 2.133 3.459 7.958 0.196 0.079 0.135 0.218 0.502 10 0.707 7.543 168.756 190.780 193.862

15% Perc = 3.578 1.416 2.325 3.779 8.634 0.226 0.089 0.147 0.238 0.545 15 0.925 9.326 189.307 211.718 215.254

20% Perc = 4.067 1.540 2.465 4.036 9.239 0.257 0.097 0.155 0.255 0.583 20 1.145 10.911 209.272 230.970 235.196

25% Perc = 4.496 1.646 2.599 4.276 9.796 0.284 0.104 0.164 0.270 0.618 25 1.366 12.416 226.008 246.149 250.206

30% Perc = 4.981 1.751 2.713 4.483 10.296 0.314 0.110 0.171 0.283 0.649 30 1.593 14.043 240.503 262.572 265.657

35% Perc = 5.505 1.858 2.812 4.684 10.847 0.347 0.117 0.177 0.295 0.684 35 1.854 15.484 255.921 277.692 281.383

40% Perc = 6.075 1.941 2.913 4.870 11.386 0.383 0.122 0.184 0.307 0.718 40 2.141 17.055 270.649 293.767 296.995

45% Perc = 6.664 2.034 3.019 5.052 11.909 0.420 0.128 0.190 0.319 0.751 45 2.417 18.634 284.504 305.930 308.948

50% Perc = 7.245 2.115 3.120 5.230 12.526 0.457 0.133 0.197 0.330 0.790 50 2.694 20.047 297.758 319.736 323.232

55% Perc = 7.861 2.198 3.217 5.413 13.136 0.496 0.139 0.203 0.341 0.828 55 3.047 21.635 311.007 332.904 336.610

60% Perc = 8.464 2.294 3.323 5.598 13.785 0.534 0.145 0.210 0.353 0.869 60 3.386 23.392 325.237 348.604 352.991

65% Perc = 9.149 2.385 3.424 5.795 14.501 0.577 0.150 0.216 0.365 0.915 65 3.773 25.226 341.184 363.359 367.261

70% Perc = 9.919 2.493 3.534 5.999 15.321 0.626 0.157 0.223 0.378 0.966 70 4.282 27.225 357.988 380.231 384.101

75% Perc = 10.692 2.599 3.653 6.217 16.186 0.674 0.164 0.230 0.392 1.021 75 4.864 29.499 377.476 400.328 403.947

80% Perc = 11.740 2.716 3.801 6.474 17.265 0.740 0.171 0.240 0.408 1.089 80 5.624 32.178 397.441 419.404 423.360

85% Perc = 12.724 2.850 3.937 6.761 18.233 0.803 0.180 0.248 0.426 1.150 85 6.579 35.503 422.217 445.012 448.444

90% Perc = 14.144 3.031 4.148 7.120 19.571 0.892 0.191 0.262 0.449 1.234 90 7.840 39.143 452.489 475.638 479.177

95% Perc = 16.239 3.286 4.415 7.605 21.758 1.024 0.207 0.278 0.480 1.372 95 10.123 45.893 501.942 524.884 528.807

Maximum = 26.823 4.316 5.681 9.896 33.037 1.692 0.272 0.358 0.624 2.084 ## 23.492 80.145 760.715 780.162 784.357

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4318
Table 4.3.19

Sale 3 LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

Sale 3

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 11.32 4.58 3.90 8.48 19.80 0.71 0.29 0.25 0.53 1.25 4.88 34.66 317.44 352.10 356.99

Std Deviation = 4.43 1.30 0.86 1.83 4.81 0.28 0.08 0.05 0.12 0.30 3.30 15.50 111.25 112.54 112.55

Variance = 19.616 1.684 0.734 3.342 23.092 0.078 0.007 0.003 0.013 0.092 10.903 240.285 ######## ######## ########

Skewness = 0.66 0.42 0.11 0.20 0.55 0.66 0.42 0.11 0.20 0.55 1.67 0.67 0.41 0.39 0.40

Kurtosis = 2.95 2.86 2.99 2.85 2.99 2.95 2.86 2.99 2.85 2.99 6.74 3.20 3.10 3.08 3.08

Mode = 7.40 4.74 3.60 8.44 17.09 0.47 0.30 0.28 0.53 1.79 5.07 28.78 291.57 321.44 512.90

Minimum = 2.740 1.067 1.154 2.671 8.377 0.173 0.067 0.073 0.168 0.528 0 -0.191 2.158 43.453 77.253 81.760

5% Perc = 5.375 2.684 2.516 5.570 12.955 0.339 0.169 0.159 0.351 0.817 5 1.295 12.895 150.277 179.876 184.566

10% Perc = 6.227 3.013 2.802 6.198 14.121 0.393 0.190 0.177 0.391 0.891 10 1.714 16.393 180.363 212.903 217.313

15% Perc = 6.785 3.227 2.992 6.598 14.890 0.428 0.204 0.189 0.416 0.939 15 2.015 18.938 202.157 235.644 240.914

20% Perc = 7.351 3.423 3.171 6.905 15.566 0.464 0.216 0.200 0.435 0.982 20 2.304 20.965 221.251 254.864 260.046

25% Perc = 7.845 3.620 3.321 7.190 16.229 0.495 0.228 0.209 0.453 1.024 25 2.575 22.898 237.656 270.048 275.317

30% Perc = 8.377 3.793 3.461 7.436 16.797 0.528 0.239 0.218 0.469 1.059 30 2.870 25.017 252.190 286.673 291.221

35% Perc = 8.854 3.947 3.577 7.681 17.380 0.558 0.249 0.226 0.484 1.096 35 3.148 26.856 268.346 302.565 307.242

40% Perc = 9.445 4.122 3.676 7.924 17.986 0.596 0.260 0.232 0.500 1.134 40 3.444 28.932 283.237 316.693 321.265

45% Perc = 10.046 4.283 3.785 8.162 18.527 0.634 0.270 0.239 0.515 1.168 45 3.723 30.721 296.959 331.331 335.205

50% Perc = 10.622 4.444 3.890 8.425 19.128 0.670 0.280 0.245 0.531 1.206 50 4.022 32.518 309.222 344.176 349.074

55% Perc = 11.189 4.625 4.005 8.674 19.822 0.706 0.292 0.253 0.547 1.250 55 4.346 34.531 322.938 359.096 363.736

60% Perc = 11.883 4.797 4.107 8.891 20.466 0.749 0.303 0.259 0.561 1.291 60 4.711 36.556 337.168 373.475 378.411

65% Perc = 12.573 5.006 4.216 9.112 21.227 0.793 0.316 0.266 0.575 1.339 65 5.120 38.791 352.948 387.988 393.094

70% Perc = 13.359 5.205 4.328 9.382 22.043 0.843 0.328 0.273 0.592 1.390 70 5.654 41.221 370.598 405.017 410.811

75% Perc = 14.129 5.437 4.469 9.691 22.933 0.891 0.343 0.282 0.611 1.446 75 6.249 44.174 388.823 425.280 430.373

80% Perc = 15.115 5.677 4.611 10.029 23.861 0.953 0.358 0.291 0.633 1.505 80 6.995 47.385 408.847 445.088 450.027

85% Perc = 16.294 5.969 4.794 10.411 25.041 1.028 0.376 0.302 0.657 1.579 85 7.814 51.009 433.727 469.191 473.557

90% Perc = 17.683 6.366 5.016 10.931 26.410 1.115 0.402 0.316 0.689 1.666 90 9.258 56.047 464.465 501.587 507.398

95% Perc = 19.533 6.889 5.329 11.587 28.668 1.232 0.435 0.336 0.731 1.808 95 11.480 63.435 515.020 550.822 556.201

Maximum = 29.600 9.595 7.340 15.255 40.129 1.867 0.605 0.463 0.962 2.531 ## 24.141 98.205 789.123 826.115 827.992

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4319
Table 4.3.20

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 3 - Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 4.837 51% 11.585 86% 0.698 11% 12.283 62% 17.120 58% P/L 4.837 28% 3.543 54% 1.118 20% 4.662 38% 9.499 32%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 3.543 37% 0.980 7% 2.093 33% 3.074 16% 6.617 23% Platforms 11.585 68% 0.980 15% 0.980 18% 1.961 16% 13.546 46%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 1.118 12% 0.980 7% 3.489 56% 4.469 23% 5.588 19% Wells 0.698 4% 2.093 32% 3.489 62% 5.582 46% 6.280 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 4.662 49% 1.961 14% 5.582 89% 7.543 38% 12.205 42% Platformsand Wells 12.283 72% 3.074 46% 4.469 80% 7.543 62% 19.826 68%

All Spills 9.499 100% 13.546 100% 6.280 100% 19.826 100% 29.325 100% All 17.120 100% 6.617 100% 5.588 100% 12.205 100% 29.325 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.125 51% 0.300 86% 0.018 11% 0.318 62% 0.444 58% P/L 0.125 28% 0.092 54% 0.029 20% 0.121 38% 0.246 32%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.092 37% 0.025 7% 0.054 33% 0.080 16% 0.171 23% Platforms 0.300 68% 0.025 15% 0.025 18% 0.051 16% 0.351 46%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.029 12% 0.025 7% 0.090 56% 0.116 23% 0.145 19% Wells 0.018 4% 0.054 32% 0.090 62% 0.145 46% 0.163 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.121 49% 0.051 14% 0.145 89% 0.195 38% 0.316 42% Platforms

and Wells 0.318 72% 0.080 46% 0.116 80% 0.195 62% 0.514 68%

All Spills 0.246 100% 0.351 100% 0.163 100% 0.514 100% 0.760 100% All 0.444 100% 0.171 100% 0.145 100% 0.316 100% 0.760 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 2 5% 5 32% 0 0% 6 1% 7 1% P/L 2 25% 18 37% 17 4% 36 7% 38 7%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 18 49% 6 34% 26 6% 31 7% 50 10% Platforms 5 71% 6 11% 6 1% 11 2% 16 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 17 46% 6 34% 422 94% 428 92% 445 89% Wells 0 5% 26 52% 422 95% 448 91% 448 89%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 36 95% 11 68% 448 100% 459 99% 495 99% Platforms

and Wells 6 75% 31 63% 428 96% 459 93% 465 93%

All Spills 38 100% 16 100% 448 100% 465 100% 502 100% All 7 100% 50 100% 445 100% 495 100% 502 100%

Sale 3 - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale 3 - LYear 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale 3 - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 3 - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale 3 - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 3 - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4320
Table 4.3.21

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale 3 - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 3.336 51% 7.484 86% 0.499 11% 7.984 60% 11.320 57% P/L 3.336 29% 2.444 53% 0.771 20% 3.215 38% 6.551 33%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 2.444 37% 0.633 7% 1.498 33% 2.132 16% 4.575 23% Platforms 7.484 66% 0.633 14% 0.633 16% 1.267 15% 8.751 44%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.771 12% 0.633 7% 2.496 56% 3.130 24% 3.901 20% Wells 0.499 4% 1.498 33% 2.496 64% 3.995 47% 4.494 23%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 3.215 49% 1.267 14% 3.995 89% 5.261 40% 8.476 43% Platformsand Wells 7.984 71% 2.132 47% 3.130 80% 5.261 62% 13.245 67%

All Spills 6.551 100% 8.751 100% 4.494 100% 13.245 100% 19.796 100% All 11.320 100% 4.575 100% 3.901 100% 8.476 100% 19.796 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.210 51% 0.472 86% 0.031 11% 0.504 60% 0.714 57% P/L 0.210 29% 0.154 53% 0.049 20% 0.203 38% 0.413 33%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.154 37% 0.040 7% 0.094 33% 0.134 16% 0.289 23% Platforms 0.472 66% 0.040 14% 0.040 16% 0.080 15% 0.552 44%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.049 12% 0.040 7% 0.157 56% 0.197 24% 0.246 20% Wells 0.031 4% 0.094 33% 0.157 64% 0.252 47% 0.283 23%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.203 49% 0.080 14% 0.252 89% 0.332 40% 0.535 43% Platforms

and Wells 0.504 71% 0.134 47% 0.197 80% 0.332 62% 0.835 67%

All Spills 0.413 100% 0.552 100% 0.283 100% 0.835 100% 1.249 100% All 0.714 100% 0.289 100% 0.246 100% 0.535 100% 1.249 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 1 5% 3 32% 0 0% 4 1% 5 1% P/L 1 25% 13 36% 12 4% 25 7% 26 7%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 13 49% 4 34% 18 6% 22 7% 35 10% Platforms 3 69% 4 10% 4 1% 7 2% 11 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 12 46% 4 34% 302 94% 306 92% 317 89% Wells 0 5% 18 53% 302 95% 321 91% 321 90%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 25 95% 7 68% 321 100% 328 99% 352 99% Platforms

and Wells 4 75% 22 64% 306 96% 328 93% 331 93%

All Spills 26 100% 11 100% 321 100% 331 100% 357 100% All 5 100% 35 100% 317 100% 352 100% 357 100%

Sale 3 - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale 3 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale 3 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Sale 3 - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale 3 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale 3 - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT4321
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4301

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4302

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4303 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4304 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency - P/L

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4305 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4306 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Index - P/L

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4307 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4308 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4309 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Index - Platforms

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4310 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency - Wells

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4311 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4312 04/01/2005

Sale 3 - Spill Index - Wells

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.3.13 Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Index - CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Index - CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4313
Figure 4.3.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale 3

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4314
Figure 4.3.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale 3

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4315
Figure 4.3.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale 3

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale 3 LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4316
Figure 4.3.17

Sale 3 - Year 2024 - Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale 3 - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

47%

32%

21%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 29.325

Sale 3 - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

47%

32%

21%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL .760

Sale 3 - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

90%

7%

P/L 3%

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 502

Sale 3- Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

58%

23%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 29.325

Sale 3 - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

23%

58%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL .760

Sale 3 - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 502

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4317
Figure 4.3.18

Sale 3 - LOF Average Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale 3 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

57%

23%

20%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.249

Sale 3 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

57%

20%

23%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 19.796

Sale 3 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

33%

44% 23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 19.796

Sale 3 - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

33%

44% 23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.249

Sale 3 - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

7%

3%

90%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 357

Sale 3 - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 357

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF4318
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.4

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Beaufort Sea Sale All
Table 4.4.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 2.519 5.975 6.870 2.200

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 10 2.519 0.405 0.03 5.975 0.961 0.50 6.870 1.105 5.72 2.200 0.354 5.50

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.405 0.03 0.961 0.50 1.105 5.72 0.354 5.50

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 20 0.811 0.06 1.923 0.99 2.211 11.44 0.708 11.01

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 30 1.216 0.09 2.884 1.49 3.316 17.16 1.062 16.51

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 2.433 5.826 6.476 2.087

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 30 1.216 0.09 2.884 1.49 3.316 17.16 1.062 16.51

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 40 2.519 1.621 0.12 5.975 3.846 1.98 6.870 4.422 22.89 2.200 1.416 22.02

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 50 2.013 0.14 4.783 2.47 5.464 28.28 1.752 27.24

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 40 2.519 1.621 0.12 5.975 3.846 1.98 6.870 4.422 22.89 2.200 1.416 22.02

Medium 3.587 6.283 4.004 1.041 10 2.433 0.391 0.03 5.826 0.937 0.48 6.476 1.042 5.39 2.087 0.336 5.22

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 50 2.013 0.14 4.783 2.47 5.464 28.28 1.752 27.24

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 50 2.519 2.027 0.14 5.975 4.807 2.48 6.870 5.527 28.61 2.200 1.770 27.52

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 25 2.433 0.979 0.07 5.826 2.343 1.21 6.476 2.605 13.48 2.087 0.839 13.05

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 75 3.005 0.21 7.151 3.69 8.132 42.09 2.609 40.58

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 50 2.519 2.027 0.14 5.975 4.807 2.48 6.870 5.527 28.61 2.200 1.770 27.52

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 25 2.433 0.979 0.07 5.826 2.343 1.21 6.476 2.605 13.48 2.087 0.839 13.05

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 75 3.005 0.21 7.151 3.69 8.132 42.09 2.609 40.58

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 65 2.519 2.635 0.19 5.975 6.249 3.22 6.870 7.185 37.19 2.200 2.301 35.78

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 105 4.200 0.30 9.999 5.16 11.353 58.76 3.644 56.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 65 2.519 2.635 0.19 5.975 6.249 3.22 6.870 7.185 37.19 2.200 2.301 35.78

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 105 4.200 0.30 9.999 5.16 11.353 58.76 3.644 56.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 65 2.519 2.635 0.19 5.975 6.249 3.22 6.870 7.185 37.19 2.200 2.301 35.78

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 105 4.200 0.30 9.999 5.16 11.353 58.76 3.644 56.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 65 2.519 2.635 0.19 5.975 6.249 3.22 6.870 7.185 37.19 2.200 2.301 35.78

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 105 4.200 0.30 9.999 5.16 11.353 58.76 3.644 56.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 65 2.519 2.635 0.19 5.975 6.249 3.22 6.870 7.185 37.19 2.200 2.301 35.78

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Water 

Depth

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2015

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2014

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4401
Table 4.4.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 105 4.200 0.30 9.999 5.16 11.353 58.76 3.644 56.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 65 2.519 2.635 0.19 5.975 6.249 3.22 6.870 7.185 37.19 2.200 2.301 35.78

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 105 4.200 0.30 9.999 5.16 11.353 58.76 3.644 56.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 55 2.519 2.229 0.16 5.975 5.288 2.73 6.870 6.080 31.47 2.200 1.947 30.27

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 95 3.795 0.27 9.037 4.66 10.248 53.04 3.290 51.16

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 55 2.519 2.229 0.16 5.975 5.288 2.73 6.870 6.080 31.47 2.200 1.947 30.27

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 95 3.795 0.27 9.037 4.66 10.248 53.04 3.290 51.16

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 45 2.519 1.824 0.13 5.975 4.326 2.23 6.870 4.974 25.75 2.200 1.593 24.77

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 85 3.390 0.24 8.076 4.17 9.143 47.32 2.936 45.66

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 70 2.782 0.20 6.634 3.42 7.484 38.74 2.405 37.40

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 30 2.519 1.216 0.09 5.975 2.884 1.49 6.870 3.316 17.16 2.200 1.062 16.51

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 70 2.782 0.20 6.634 3.42 7.484 38.74 2.405 37.40

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 60 2.376 0.17 5.672 2.93 6.379 33.02 2.051 31.90

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 60 2.376 0.17 5.672 2.93 6.379 33.02 2.051 31.90

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 60 2.376 0.17 5.672 2.93 6.379 33.02 2.051 31.90

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 40 2.433 1.566 0.11 5.826 3.749 1.93 6.476 4.168 21.57 2.087 1.343 20.89

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 60 2.376 0.17 5.672 2.93 6.379 33.02 2.051 31.90

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 30 2.433 1.174 0.08 5.826 2.812 1.45 6.476 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.67

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 50 1.985 0.14 4.735 2.44 5.337 27.62 1.715 26.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 20 2.519 0.811 0.06 5.975 1.923 0.99 6.870 2.211 11.44 2.200 0.708 11.01

Medium 10 3.587 0.577 0.04 6.283 1.011 0.49 4.004 0.644 3.40 1.041 0.168 2.49 30 2.433 1.174 0.08 5.826 2.812 1.45 6.476 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.67

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 10 0.577 0.04 1.011 0.49 0.644 3.40 0.168 2.49 50 1.985 0.14 4.735 2.44 5.337 27.62 1.715 26.67

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 20 2.433 0.783 0.06 5.826 1.875 0.97 6.476 2.084 10.79 2.087 0.672 10.44

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.391 0.10 3.317 1.71 3.742 19.37 1.202 18.70

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 20 2.433 0.783 0.06 5.826 1.875 0.97 6.476 2.084 10.79 2.087 0.672 10.44

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.391 0.10 3.317 1.71 3.742 19.37 1.202 18.70

Shallow 3.671 6.432 4.375 1.144 15 2.519 0.608 0.04 5.975 1.442 0.74 6.870 1.658 8.58 2.200 0.531 8.26

Medium 5 3.587 0.289 0.02 6.283 0.505 0.25 4.004 0.322 1.70 1.041 0.084 1.25 20 2.433 0.783 0.06 5.826 1.875 0.97 6.476 2.084 10.79 2.087 0.672 10.44

Deep 3.243 5.676 2.636 0.659 2.087 5.218 5.086 1.695

Total 5 0.289 0.02 0.505 0.25 0.322 1.70 0.084 1.25 35 1.391 0.10 3.317 1.71 3.742 19.37 1.202 18.70

2036

2037

2038

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

2026

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4401
Table 4.4.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 7.9 0.405 0.051 0.029 0.961 0.122 0.496 1.367 0.173 0.525 1.105 0.140 5.721 0.354 0.045 5.504 1.459 0.185 11.226 2.826 0.358 11.751

2011 15.7 0.405 0.026 0.029 0.961 0.061 0.496 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 1.459 0.093 11.226 2.826 0.180 11.751

2012 23.6 0.811 0.034 0.058 1.923 0.081 0.992 2.734 0.116 1.050 2.211 0.094 11.443 0.708 0.030 11.009 2.919 0.124 22.451 5.652 0.240 23.501

2013 39.4 1.216 0.031 0.087 2.884 0.073 1.488 4.100 0.104 1.575 3.316 0.084 17.164 1.062 0.027 16.513 4.378 0.111 33.677 8.478 0.215 35.252

2014 44.4 1.216 0.027 0.087 2.884 0.065 1.488 4.100 0.092 1.575 3.316 0.075 17.164 1.062 0.024 16.513 4.378 0.099 33.677 8.478 0.191 35.252

2015 55.3 2.013 0.036 0.143 4.783 0.086 2.468 6.796 0.123 2.611 5.464 0.099 28.279 1.752 0.032 27.240 7.215 0.130 55.518 14.011 0.253 58.129

2016 59.5 2.013 0.034 0.143 4.783 0.080 2.468 6.796 0.114 2.611 5.464 0.092 28.279 1.752 0.029 27.240 7.215 0.121 55.518 14.011 0.235 58.129

2017 74.5 3.294 0.044 0.234 7.656 0.103 3.934 10.950 0.147 4.169 8.454 0.113 43.790 2.693 0.036 41.823 11.147 0.150 85.614 22.097 0.297 89.783

2018 76.1 3.294 0.043 0.234 7.656 0.101 3.934 10.950 0.144 4.169 8.454 0.111 43.790 2.693 0.035 41.823 11.147 0.146 85.614 22.097 0.290 89.783

2019 102.5 4.778 0.047 0.340 11.010 0.107 5.649 15.787 0.154 5.989 11.998 0.117 62.163 3.811 0.037 59.160 15.809 0.154 121.322 31.596 0.308 127.311

2020 103.5 4.778 0.046 0.340 11.010 0.106 5.649 15.787 0.153 5.989 11.998 0.116 62.163 3.811 0.037 59.160 15.809 0.153 121.322 31.596 0.305 127.311

2021 97.9 4.778 0.049 0.340 11.010 0.112 5.649 15.787 0.161 5.989 11.998 0.123 62.163 3.811 0.039 59.160 15.809 0.161 121.322 31.596 0.323 127.311

2022 93.1 4.778 0.051 0.340 11.010 0.118 5.649 15.787 0.170 5.989 11.998 0.129 62.163 3.811 0.041 59.160 15.809 0.170 121.322 31.596 0.339 127.311

2023 85.6 4.778 0.056 0.340 11.010 0.129 5.649 15.787 0.184 5.989 11.998 0.140 62.163 3.811 0.045 59.160 15.809 0.185 121.322 31.596 0.369 127.311

2024 79.2 4.778 0.060 0.340 11.010 0.139 5.649 15.787 0.199 5.989 11.998 0.151 62.163 3.811 0.048 59.160 15.809 0.200 121.322 31.596 0.399 127.311

2025 67.5 4.372 0.065 0.311 10.048 0.149 5.153 14.421 0.214 5.464 10.892 0.161 56.441 3.457 0.051 53.655 14.349 0.213 110.096 28.770 0.426 115.561

2026 59.0 4.372 0.074 0.311 10.048 0.170 5.153 14.421 0.244 5.464 10.892 0.185 56.441 3.457 0.059 53.655 14.349 0.243 110.096 28.770 0.488 115.561

2027 49.9 3.967 0.079 0.282 9.087 0.182 4.657 13.054 0.262 4.939 9.787 0.196 50.720 3.103 0.062 48.151 12.890 0.258 98.871 25.944 0.520 103.810

2028 42.2 3.359 0.080 0.239 7.645 0.181 3.913 11.004 0.261 4.152 8.129 0.193 42.138 2.572 0.061 39.894 10.701 0.254 82.032 21.705 0.514 86.184

2029 37.0 3.359 0.091 0.239 7.645 0.207 3.913 11.004 0.297 4.152 8.129 0.220 42.138 2.572 0.070 39.894 10.701 0.289 82.032 21.705 0.587 86.184

2030 32.4 2.954 0.091 0.210 6.683 0.206 3.417 9.637 0.297 3.627 7.023 0.217 36.416 2.219 0.068 34.390 9.242 0.285 70.806 18.879 0.583 74.433

2031 28.5 2.954 0.104 0.169 6.683 0.235 2.927 9.637 0.338 3.096 7.023 0.246 33.016 2.219 0.078 31.897 9.242 0.324 64.912 18.879 0.662 68.008

2032 25.0 2.954 0.118 0.210 6.683 0.267 3.417 9.637 0.385 3.627 7.023 0.281 36.416 2.219 0.089 34.390 9.242 0.370 70.806 18.879 0.755 74.433

2033 21.9 2.954 0.135 0.210 6.683 0.305 3.417 9.637 0.440 3.627 7.023 0.321 36.416 2.219 0.101 34.390 9.242 0.422 70.806 18.879 0.862 74.433

2034 17.0 2.562 0.151 0.182 5.746 0.338 2.933 8.308 0.489 3.116 5.981 0.352 31.023 1.883 0.111 29.168 7.86 0.46 60.19 16.172 0.951 63.307

2035 14.9 2.562 0.172 0.182 5.746 0.386 2.933 8.308 0.558 3.116 5.981 0.401 31.023 1.883 0.126 29.168 7.86 0.53 60.19 16.172 1.085 63.307

2036 8.3 1.679 0.202 0.120 3.822 0.461 1.956 5.502 0.663 2.076 4.064 0.490 21.069 1.286 0.155 19.947 5.35 0.64 41.02 10.852 1.308 43.092

2037 7.3 1.679 0.230 0.120 3.822 0.524 1.956 5.502 0.754 2.076 4.064 0.557 21.069 1.286 0.176 19.947 5.35 0.73 41.02 10.852 1.487 43.092

2038 6.5 1.679 0.258 0.120 3.822 0.588 1.956 5.502 0.846 2.076 4.064 0.625 21.069 1.286 0.198 19.947 5.35 0.82 41.02 10.852 1.670 43.092

Total

 LOF 1375.6 84.737 6 194.717 99 279.454 105 210.952 1090 66.957 1037 277.909 2126 557.363 2232

Average LOF 2.421 0.062 0 5.563 0.142 3 7.984 0.203 3 6.027 0.153 31 1.913 0.049 30 7.940 0.202 61 15.925 0.405 64

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4402
Table 4.4.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1 3 1.619 0.486 0.22 0.274 0.082 0.46

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 3 0.486 0.22 0.082 0.46

Shallow 1 13 1.619 2.105 0.95 0.274 0.357 2.01

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 1 13 2.105 0.95 0.357 2.01

Shallow 2 26 1.619 4.210 1.90 0.274 0.713 4.02

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 26 4.210 1.90 0.713 4.02

Shallow 3 39 1.619 6.315 2.85 0.274 1.070 6.02

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 39 6.315 2.85 1.070 6.02

Shallow 3 59 1.619 9.553 4.32 0.274 1.618 9.11

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 3 59 9.553 4.32 1.618 9.11

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 1 3 1.704 0.511 0.23 0.288 0.087 0.49

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 4 72 11.683 5.28 1.979 11.14

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 1 13 1.704 2.215 1.00 0.288 0.375 2.11

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 4 82 13.387 6.05 2.268 12.77

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 2 26 1.704 4.430 2.00 0.288 0.750 4.22

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 95 15.602 7.05 2.642 14.88

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 3 39 1.704 6.644 3.00 0.288 1.125 6.33

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 6 108 17.816 8.05 3.017 16.99

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 4 63 1.704 10.733 4.85 0.288 1.817 10.23

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 7 132 21.905 9.90 3.709 20.89

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 5 87 1.704 14.822 6.70 0.288 2.509 14.13

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 8 156 25.994 11.75 4.401 24.78

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 5 107 1.704 18.229 8.24 0.288 3.085 17.37

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 8 176 29.401 13.29 4.978 28.03

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 5 127 1.704 21.637 9.78 0.288 3.662 20.62

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 8 196 32.809 14.83 5.555 31.28

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 8 206 34.512 15.60 5.843 32.90

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 8 206 34.512 15.60 5.843 32.90

Shallow 3 69 1.619 11.172 5.05 0.274 1.893 10.66

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4403
Table 4.4.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 8 206 34.512 15.60 5.843 32.90

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 7 183 30.788 13.91 5.212 29.35

Shallow 2 46 1.619 7.448 3.37 0.274 1.262 7.11

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 7 183 30.788 13.91 5.212 29.35

Shallow 1 23 1.619 3.724 1.68 0.274 0.631 3.55

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 6 160 27.064 12.23 4.581 25.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 137 23.340 10.55 3.950 22.24

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 137 23.340 10.55 3.950 22.24

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 137 23.340 10.55 3.950 22.24

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 137 23.340 10.55 3.950 22.24

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 137 23.340 10.55 3.950 22.24

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 5 137 1.704 23.340 10.55 0.288 3.950 22.24

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 5 137 23.340 10.55 3.950 22.24

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 4 114 1.704 19.422 8.78 0.288 3.287 18.51

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 4 114 19.422 8.78 3.287 18.51

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 4 114 1.704 19.422 8.78 0.288 3.287 18.51

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 4 114 19.422 8.78 3.287 18.51

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 2 68 1.704 11.585 5.24 0.288 1.961 11.04

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total 2 68 11.585 5.24 1.961 11.04

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4403
Table 4.4.4

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Platforms - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.486 0.220 0.082 0.463 0.082 0.463 0.568 0.683

2010 7.9 2.105 0.266 0.951 0.357 0.045 2.008 0.357 0.045 2.008 2.461 0.312 2.959

2011 15.7 4.210 0.268 1.902 0.713 0.045 4.016 0.713 0.045 4.016 4.923 0.314 5.918

2012 23.6 6.315 0.268 2.854 1.070 0.045 6.024 1.070 0.045 6.024 7.384 0.313 8.878

2013 39.4 9.553 0.242 4.317 1.618 0.041 9.113 1.618 0.041 9.113 11.171 0.284 13.430

2014 44.4 11.683 0.263 5.280 1.979 0.045 11.145 1.979 0.045 11.145 13.662 0.308 16.424

2015 55.3 13.387 0.242 6.050 2.268 0.041 12.768 2.268 0.041 12.768 15.654 0.283 18.818

2016 59.5 15.602 0.262 7.051 2.642 0.044 14.879 2.642 0.044 14.879 18.244 0.307 21.930

2017 74.5 17.816 0.239 8.052 3.017 0.040 16.990 3.017 0.040 16.990 20.833 0.280 25.041

2018 76.1 21.905 0.288 9.899 3.709 0.049 20.887 3.709 0.049 20.887 25.614 0.337 30.786

2019 102.5 25.994 0.254 11.747 4.401 0.043 24.783 4.401 0.043 24.783 30.395 0.297 36.530

2020 103.5 29.401 0.284 13.287 4.978 0.048 28.031 4.978 0.048 28.031 34.379 0.332 41.318

2021 97.9 32.809 0.335 14.827 5.555 0.057 31.278 5.555 0.057 31.278 38.363 0.392 46.105

2022 93.1 34.512 0.371 15.597 5.843 0.063 32.902 5.843 0.063 32.902 40.355 0.433 48.498

2023 85.6 34.512 0.403 15.597 5.843 0.068 32.902 5.843 0.068 32.902 40.355 0.471 48.498

2024 79.2 34.512 0.436 15.597 5.843 0.074 32.902 5.843 0.074 32.902 40.355 0.510 48.498

2025 67.5 30.788 0.456 13.914 5.212 0.077 29.349 5.212 0.077 29.349 36.000 0.533 43.263

2026 59.0 30.788 0.522 13.914 5.212 0.088 29.349 5.212 0.088 29.349 36.000 0.610 43.263

2027 49.9 27.064 0.542 12.231 4.581 0.092 25.796 4.581 0.092 25.796 31.645 0.634 38.027

2028 42.2 23.340 0.553 10.548 3.950 0.094 22.244 3.950 0.094 22.244 27.290 0.647 32.792

2029 37.0 23.340 0.631 10.548 3.950 0.107 22.244 3.950 0.107 22.244 27.290 0.738 32.792

2030 32.4 23.340 0.720 10.548 3.950 0.122 22.244 3.950 0.122 22.244 27.290 0.842 32.792

2031 28.5 23.340 0.819 10.548 3.950 0.139 22.244 3.950 0.139 22.244 27.290 0.958 32.792

2032 25.0 23.340 0.934 10.548 3.950 0.158 22.244 3.950 0.158 22.244 27.290 1.092 32.792

2033 21.9 23.340 1.066 10.548 3.950 0.180 22.244 3.950 0.180 22.244 27.290 1.246 32.792

2034 17.0 19.422 1.142 8.777 3.287 0.193 18.510 22.71 1.34 27.29 22.709 1.336 27.287

2035 14.9 19.422 1.303 8.777 3.287 0.221 18.510 22.71 1.52 27.29 22.709 1.524 27.287

2036 8.3 11.585 1.396 5.235 1.961 0.236 11.041 13.55 1.63 16.28 13.546 1.632 16.276

2037 7.3 11.585 1.587 5.235 1.961 0.269 11.041 13.55 1.86 16.28 13.546 1.856 16.276

2038 6.5 11.585 1.782 5.235 1.961 0.302 11.041 13.55 2.08 16.28 13.546 2.084 16.276

Total

 LOF 1375.6 597.080 270 101.082 569 174.680 602 698.162 839

Average LOF 17.059 0.434 8 2.888 0.073 16 4.991 0.127 17 19.947 0.508 24

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4404
Table 4.4.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 3 0.103 0.031 0.02 0.718 0.215 1.14 0.308 0.092 6.31 0.205 0.062 12.31

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 3 0.031 0.02 0.215 1.14 0.092 6.31 0.062 12.31

Shallow 13 0.103 0.133 0.07 0.718 0.934 4.94 0.308 0.400 27.35 0.205 0.267 53.36

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 13 0.133 0.07 0.934 4.94 0.400 27.35 0.267 53.36

Shallow 26 0.103 0.267 0.14 0.718 1.868 9.88 0.308 0.800 54.71 0.205 0.534 106.72

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 26 0.267 0.14 1.868 9.88 0.800 54.71 0.534 106.72

Shallow 39 0.103 0.400 0.21 0.718 2.801 14.83 0.308 1.201 82.06 0.205 0.800 160.08

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 39 0.400 0.21 2.801 14.83 1.201 82.06 0.800 160.08

Shallow 59 0.103 0.605 0.31 0.718 4.238 22.43 0.308 1.816 124.14 0.205 1.211 242.17

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 59 0.605 0.31 4.238 22.43 1.816 124.14 1.211 242.17

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 3 0.103 0.031 0.02 0.718 0.215 1.14 0.308 0.092 6.31 0.205 0.062 12.31

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 72 0.739 0.38 5.172 27.37 2.216 151.49 1.478 295.53

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 13 0.103 0.133 0.07 0.718 0.934 4.94 0.308 0.400 27.35 0.205 0.267 53.36

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 82 0.841 0.44 5.890 31.17 2.524 172.53 1.683 336.57

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 26 0.103 0.267 0.14 0.718 1.868 9.88 0.308 0.800 54.71 0.205 0.534 106.72

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 95 0.975 0.51 6.824 36.11 2.924 199.88 1.950 389.93

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 39 0.103 0.400 0.21 0.718 2.801 14.83 0.308 1.201 82.06 0.205 0.800 160.08

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 108 1.108 0.58 7.758 41.05 3.325 227.24 2.216 443.29

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 63 0.103 0.646 0.34 0.718 4.525 23.95 0.308 1.939 132.55 0.205 1.293 258.59

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 132 1.354 0.70 9.481 50.18 4.063 277.73 2.709 541.80

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 87 0.103 0.893 0.46 0.718 6.249 33.07 0.308 2.678 183.05 0.205 1.785 357.10

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 156 1.601 0.83 11.205 59.30 4.802 328.23 3.202 640.31

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 107 0.103 1.098 0.57 0.718 7.686 40.67 0.308 3.294 225.13 0.205 2.196 439.19

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 176 1.806 0.94 12.642 66.90 5.418 370.31 3.612 722.40

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 127 0.103 1.303 0.68 0.718 9.122 48.28 0.308 3.910 267.21 0.205 2.606 521.28

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 196 2.011 1.04 14.079 74.51 6.034 412.39 4.022 804.49

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4405
Table 4.4.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 206 2.114 1.10 14.797 78.31 6.342 433.43 4.228 845.54

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 206 2.114 1.10 14.797 78.31 6.342 433.43 4.228 845.54

Shallow 69 0.103 0.708 0.37 0.718 4.956 26.23 0.308 2.124 145.18 0.205 1.416 283.21

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 206 2.114 1.10 14.797 78.31 6.342 433.43 4.228 845.54

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 183 1.878 0.98 13.145 69.56 5.633 385.04 3.756 751.13

Shallow 46 0.103 0.472 0.25 0.718 3.304 17.49 0.308 1.416 96.79 0.205 0.944 188.81

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 183 1.878 0.98 13.145 69.56 5.633 385.04 3.756 751.13

Shallow 23 0.103 0.236 0.12 0.718 1.652 8.74 0.308 0.708 48.39 0.205 0.472 94.40

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 160 1.642 0.85 11.493 60.82 4.925 336.65 3.284 656.73

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 137 1.406 0.73 9.841 52.08 4.217 288.25 2.812 562.32

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 137 1.406 0.73 9.841 52.08 4.217 288.25 2.812 562.32

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 137 1.406 0.73 9.841 52.08 4.217 288.25 2.812 562.32

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 137 1.406 0.73 9.841 52.08 4.217 288.25 2.812 562.32

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 137 1.406 0.73 9.841 52.08 4.217 288.25 2.812 562.32

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 137 0.103 1.406 0.73 0.718 9.841 52.08 0.308 4.217 288.25 0.205 2.812 562.32

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 137 1.406 0.73 9.841 52.08 4.217 288.25 2.812 562.32

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 114 0.103 1.170 0.61 0.718 8.189 43.33 0.308 3.509 239.86 0.205 2.340 467.92

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 114 1.170 0.61 8.189 43.33 3.509 239.86 2.340 467.92

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 114 0.103 1.170 0.61 0.718 8.189 43.33 0.308 3.509 239.86 0.205 2.340 467.92

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 114 1.170 0.61 8.189 43.33 3.509 239.86 2.340 467.92

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 68 0.103 0.698 0.36 0.718 4.884 25.85 0.308 2.093 143.08 0.205 1.396 279.11

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total 68 0.698 0.36 4.884 25.85 2.093 143.08 1.396 279.11

2024

2025

2026

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

2022

2023

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4405
Table 4.4.6

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.031 0.016 0.092 1.140 0.154 18.626 0.277 19.782

2010 7.9 0.133 0.017 0.069 0.400 0.051 4.942 0.667 0.084 80.712 1.201 0.152 85.723

2011 15.7 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.401 0.153 171.445

2012 23.6 0.400 0.017 0.208 1.201 0.051 14.825 2.001 0.085 242.135 3.602 0.153 257.168

2013 39.4 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.077 366.307 5.449 0.138 389.049

2014 44.4 0.739 0.017 0.384 2.216 0.050 27.369 3.694 0.083 447.018 6.649 0.150 474.771

2015 55.3 0.841 0.015 0.437 2.524 0.046 31.171 4.207 0.076 509.104 7.573 0.137 540.712

2016 59.5 0.975 0.016 0.506 2.924 0.049 36.112 4.874 0.082 589.816 8.773 0.147 626.434

2017 74.5 1.108 0.015 0.576 3.325 0.045 41.054 5.541 0.074 670.527 9.974 0.134 712.157

2018 76.1 1.354 0.018 0.704 4.063 0.053 50.177 6.772 0.089 819.533 12.190 0.160 870.414

2019 102.5 1.601 0.016 0.831 4.802 0.047 59.300 8.004 0.078 968.539 14.407 0.141 #######

2020 103.5 1.806 0.017 0.938 5.418 0.052 66.903 9.030 0.087 ####### 16.254 0.157 #######

2021 97.9 2.011 0.021 1.045 6.034 0.062 74.505 10.056 0.103 ####### 18.101 0.185 #######

2022 93.1 2.114 0.023 1.098 6.342 0.068 78.306 10.569 0.114 ####### 19.025 0.204 #######

2023 85.6 2.114 0.025 1.098 6.342 0.074 78.306 10.569 0.123 ####### 19.025 0.222 #######

2024 79.2 2.114 0.027 1.098 6.342 0.080 78.306 10.569 0.133 ####### 19.025 0.240 #######

2025 67.5 1.878 0.028 0.975 5.633 0.083 69.563 9.389 0.139 ####### 16.900 0.250 #######

2026 59.0 1.878 0.032 0.975 5.633 0.095 69.563 9.389 0.159 ####### 16.900 0.286 #######

2027 49.9 1.642 0.033 0.853 4.925 0.099 60.821 8.209 0.165 993.374 14.776 0.296 #######

2028 42.2 1.406 0.033 0.730 4.217 0.100 52.078 7.029 0.167 850.576 12.652 0.300 903.384

2029 37.0 1.406 0.038 0.730 4.217 0.114 52.078 7.029 0.190 850.576 12.652 0.342 903.384

2030 32.4 1.406 0.043 0.730 4.217 0.130 52.078 7.029 0.217 850.576 12.652 0.391 903.384

2031 28.5 1.406 0.049 0.730 4.217 0.148 52.078 7.029 0.247 850.576 12.652 0.444 903.384

2032 25.0 1.406 0.056 0.730 4.217 0.169 52.078 7.029 0.281 850.576 12.652 0.506 903.384

2033 21.9 1.406 0.064 0.730 4.217 0.193 52.078 7.029 0.321 850.576 12.652 0.578 903.384

2034 17.0 1.170 0.069 0.608 3.509 0.206 43.335 5.849 0.344 707.779 10.528 0.619 751.721

2035 14.9 1.170 0.079 0.608 3.509 0.236 43.335 5.849 0.393 707.779 10.528 0.707 751.721

2036 8.3 0.698 0.084 0.362 2.093 0.252 25.849 3.489 0.420 422.184 6.280 0.757 448.395

2037 7.3 0.698 0.096 0.362 2.093 0.287 25.849 3.489 0.478 422.184 6.280 0.860 448.395

2038 6.5 0.698 0.107 0.362 2.093 0.322 25.849 3.489 0.537 422.184 6.280 0.966 448.395

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4406
Table 4.4.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale All - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.158 0.08 1.108 5.86 0.476 32.53 0.276 55.11

Shallow 2 1.583 0.317 0.16 11.077 2.215 11.72 4.759 0.952 65.06 2.755 0.551 110.22

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 2 0.317 0.16 2.215 11.72 0.952 65.06 0.551 110.22

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 2 0.339 0.18 2.374 12.56 1.020 69.71 0.590 118.09

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 1 0.181 0.09 1.266 6.70 0.544 37.18 0.315 62.98

Shallow 1 1.583 0.158 0.08 11.077 1.108 5.86 4.759 0.476 32.53 2.755 0.276 55.11

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total 2 0.339 0.18 2.374 12.56 1.020 69.71 0.590 118.09

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 2 1.809 0.362 0.19 12.659 2.532 13.40 5.439 1.088 74.35 3.149 0.630 125.96

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 3 0.565 0.29 3.956 20.94 1.700 116.18 0.984 196.82

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1 1.809 0.181 0.09 12.659 1.266 6.70 5.439 0.544 37.18 3.149 0.315 62.98

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 2 0.384 0.20 2.690 14.24 1.156 79.00 0.669 133.84

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

2026

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4407
Table 4.4.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale All - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4407
Table 4.4.8

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2005 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2006 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

2007 0.317 0.164 0.952 11.724 1.503 175.278 2.771 187.167

2008 0.339 0.176 1.020 12.561 1.610 187.798 2.969 200.536

2009 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

2010 7.9 0.339 0.043 0.176 1.020 0.129 12.561 1.610 0.204 187.798 2.969 0.376 200.536

2011 15.7

2012 23.6 0.565 0.024 0.294 1.700 0.072 20.936 2.684 0.114 312.997 4.949 0.210 334.226

2013 39.4 0.384 0.010 0.200 1.156 0.029 14.236 1.825 0.046 212.838 3.365 0.085 227.274

2014 44.4

2015 55.3 0.204 0.004 0.106 0.612 0.011 7.537 0.966 0.017 112.679 1.782 0.032 120.321

2016 59.5

2017 74.5 0.204 0.003 0.106 0.612 0.008 7.537 0.966 0.013 112.679 1.782 0.024 120.321

2018 76.1 0.204 0.003 0.106 0.612 0.008 7.537 0.966 0.013 112.679 1.782 0.023 120.321

2019 102.5

2020 103.5

2021 97.9

2022 93.1

2023 85.6

2024 79.2

2025 67.5

2026 59.0

2027 49.9

2028 42.2

2029 37.0

2030 32.4

2031 28.5

2032 25.0

2033 21.9

2034 17.0

2035 14.9

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4408
Table 4.4.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 2 0.484 0.010 0.01 3.383 0.068 0.36 1.453 0.029 1.99 1.453 0.029 5.81

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.010 0.01 0.068 0.36 0.029 1.99 0.029 5.81

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 2 0.484 0.010 0.01 3.383 0.068 0.36 1.453 0.029 1.99 1.453 0.029 5.81

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.010 0.01 0.068 0.36 0.029 1.99 0.029 5.81

Shallow 2 0.484 0.010 0.01 3.383 0.068 0.36 1.453 0.029 1.99 1.453 0.029 5.81

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.010 0.01 0.068 0.36 0.029 1.99 0.029 5.81

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.011 0.01 3.867 0.077 0.41 1.661 0.033 2.27 1.661 0.033 6.64

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.011 0.01 0.077 0.41 0.033 2.27 0.033 6.64

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 3 0.554 0.017 0.01 3.867 0.116 0.61 1.661 0.050 3.41 1.661 0.050 9.97

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 3 0.017 0.01 0.116 0.61 0.050 3.41 0.050 9.97

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 4 0.554 0.022 0.01 3.867 0.155 0.82 1.661 0.066 4.54 1.661 0.066 13.29

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 4 0.022 0.01 0.155 0.82 0.066 4.54 0.066 13.29

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 2 0.554 0.011 0.01 3.867 0.077 0.41 1.661 0.033 2.27 1.661 0.033 6.64

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total 2 0.011 0.01 0.077 0.41 0.033 2.27 0.033 6.64

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2024

2025

2026

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2027

2028

2029

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4409
Table 4.4.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4409
Table 4.4.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4409
Table 4.4.10

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.010 0.005 0.029 0.358 0.058 7.799 0.097 8.163

2007

2008 0.010 0.005 0.029 0.358 0.058 7.799 0.097 8.163

2009 0.010 0.005 0.029 0.358 0.058 7.799 0.097 8.163

2010 7.9 0.011 0.001 0.006 0.033 0.004 0.409 0.066 0.008 8.914 0.111 0.014 9.329

2011 15.7

2012 23.6

2013 39.4 0.017 0.000 0.009 0.050 0.001 0.614 0.100 0.003 13.370 0.166 0.004 13.993

2014 44.4 0.022 0.000 0.012 0.066 0.001 0.819 0.133 0.003 17.827 0.221 0.005 18.657

2015 55.3 0.011 0.000 0.006 0.033 0.001 0.409 0.066 0.001 8.914 0.111 0.002 9.329

2016 59.5

2017 74.5

2018 76.1

2019 102.5

2020 103.5

2021 97.9

2022 93.1

2023 85.6

2024 79.2

2025 67.5

2026 59.0

2027 49.9

2028 42.2

2029 37.0

2030 32.4

2031 28.5

2032 25.0

2033 21.9

2034 17.0

2035 14.9

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4410
Table 4.4.11

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2005 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2006 0.168 0.087 0.505 6.220 0.810 95.439 1.315 101.659 1.483 101.746

2007 0.317 0.164 0.952 11.724 1.503 175.278 2.455 187.002 2.771 187.167

2008 0.349 0.181 1.049 12.920 1.668 195.597 2.717 208.517 3.066 208.698

2009 0.221 0.115 0.665 8.198 1.071 126.584 1.736 134.782 1.958 134.897

2010 7.9 0.484 0.061 0.251 1.453 0.184 17.912 2.344 0.297 277.423 3.797 0.481 295.336 4.281 0.542 295.587

2011 15.7 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.134 0.136 171.307 2.401 0.153 171.445

2012 23.6 0.966 0.041 0.502 2.900 0.123 35.761 4.685 0.199 555.132 7.585 0.321 590.892 8.551 0.362 591.394

2013 39.4 1.007 0.026 0.523 3.022 0.077 37.278 4.952 0.126 592.515 7.974 0.202 629.793 8.980 0.228 630.315

2014 44.4 0.761 0.017 0.395 2.283 0.051 28.188 3.827 0.086 464.845 6.110 0.138 493.033 6.871 0.155 493.428

2015 55.3 1.056 0.019 0.549 3.169 0.057 39.117 5.240 0.095 630.697 8.409 0.152 669.813 9.465 0.171 670.362

2016 59.5 0.975 0.016 0.506 2.924 0.049 36.112 4.874 0.082 589.816 7.799 0.131 625.928 8.773 0.147 626.434

2017 74.5 1.312 0.018 0.681 3.937 0.053 48.591 6.507 0.087 783.206 10.444 0.140 831.797 11.756 0.158 832.478

2018 76.1 1.558 0.020 0.809 4.675 0.061 57.714 7.739 0.102 932.212 12.414 0.163 989.926 13.972 0.184 990.735

2019 102.5 1.601 0.016 0.831 4.802 0.047 59.300 8.004 0.078 968.539 12.806 0.125 ####### 14.407 0.141 #######

2020 103.5 1.806 0.017 0.938 5.418 0.052 66.903 9.030 0.087 ####### 14.448 0.140 ####### 16.254 0.157 #######

2021 97.9 2.011 0.021 1.045 6.034 0.062 74.505 10.056 0.103 ####### 16.090 0.164 ####### 18.101 0.185 #######

2022 93.1 2.114 0.023 1.098 6.342 0.068 78.306 10.569 0.114 ####### 16.911 0.182 ####### 19.025 0.204 #######

2023 85.6 2.114 0.025 1.098 6.342 0.074 78.306 10.569 0.123 ####### 16.911 0.198 ####### 19.025 0.222 #######

2024 79.2 2.114 0.027 1.098 6.342 0.080 78.306 10.569 0.133 ####### 16.911 0.214 ####### 19.025 0.240 #######

2025 67.5 1.878 0.028 0.975 5.633 0.083 69.563 9.389 0.139 ####### 15.023 0.223 ####### 16.900 0.250 #######

2026 59.0 1.878 0.032 0.975 5.633 0.095 69.563 9.389 0.159 ####### 15.023 0.255 ####### 16.900 0.286 #######

2027 49.9 1.642 0.033 0.853 4.925 0.099 60.821 8.209 0.165 993.374 13.135 0.263 ####### 14.776 0.296 #######

2028 42.2 1.406 0.033 0.730 4.217 0.100 52.078 7.029 0.167 850.576 11.246 0.267 902.654 12.652 0.300 903.384

2029 37.0 1.406 0.038 0.730 4.217 0.114 52.078 7.029 0.190 850.576 11.246 0.304 902.654 12.652 0.342 903.384

2030 32.4 1.406 0.043 0.730 4.217 0.130 52.078 7.029 0.217 850.576 11.246 0.347 902.654 12.652 0.391 903.384

2031 28.5 1.406 0.049 0.730 4.217 0.148 52.078 7.029 0.247 850.576 11.246 0.395 902.654 12.652 0.444 903.384

2032 25.0 1.406 0.056 0.730 4.217 0.169 52.078 7.029 0.281 850.576 11.246 0.450 902.654 12.652 0.506 903.384

2033 21.9 1.406 0.064 0.730 4.217 0.193 52.078 7.029 0.321 850.576 11.246 0.514 902.654 12.652 0.578 903.384

2034 17.0 1.170 0.069 0.608 3.509 0.206 43.335 5.849 0.344 707.779 9.36 0.55 751.11 10.528 0.619 751.721

2035 14.9 1.170 0.079 0.608 3.509 0.236 43.335 5.849 0.393 707.779 9.36 0.63 751.11 10.528 0.707 751.721

2036 8.3 0.698 0.084 0.362 2.093 0.252 25.849 3.489 0.420 422.184 5.58 0.67 448.03 6.280 0.757 448.395

2037 7.3 0.698 0.096 0.362 2.093 0.287 25.849 3.489 0.478 422.184 5.58 0.76 448.03 6.280 0.860 448.395

2038 6.5 0.698 0.107 0.362 2.093 0.322 25.849 3.489 0.537 422.184 5.58 0.86 448.03 6.280 0.966 448.395

Total

 LOF 1375.6 39.781 21 119.362 1474 198.180 23922 317.542 25395 357.322 25416

Average LOF 1.137 0.029 1 3.410 0.087 42 5.662 0.144 683 9.073 0.231 726 10.209 0.260 726

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4411
Table 4.4.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells

Total 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.386 93.583

Development Wells 0.010 0.005 0.029 0.358 0.058 7.799 0.097 8.163

Total 0.168 0.087 0.505 6.220 0.810 95.439 1.483 101.746

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.317 0.164 0.952 11.724 1.503 175.278 2.771 187.167

Development Wells

Total 0.317 0.164 0.952 11.724 1.503 175.278 2.771 187.167

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.339 0.176 1.020 12.561 1.610 187.798 2.969 200.536

Development Wells 0.010 0.005 0.029 0.358 0.058 7.799 0.097 8.163

Total 0.349 0.181 1.049 12.920 1.668 195.597 3.066 208.698

Pipeline

Platforms 0.486 0.220 0.041 0.232 0.041 0.232 0.568 0.683

Production Wells 0.031 0.016 0.092 1.140 0.154 18.626 0.277 19.782

Exploration Wells 0.181 0.094 0.544 6.699 0.859 100.159 1.584 106.952

Development Wells 0.010 0.005 0.029 0.358 0.058 7.799 0.097 8.163

Total 0.707 0.335 0.706 8.430 1.112 126.816 2.526 135.580

Pipeline 1.367 0.173 0.525 1.105 0.140 5.721 0.354 0.045 5.504 2.826 0.358 11.751

Platforms 2.105 0.266 0.951 0.178 0.023 1.004 0.178 0.023 1.004 2.461 0.312 2.959

Production Wells 0.133 0.017 0.069 0.400 0.051 4.942 0.667 0.084 80.712 1.201 0.152 85.723

Exploration Wells 0.339 0.043 0.176 1.020 0.129 12.561 1.610 0.204 187.798 2.969 0.376 200.536

Development Wells 0.011 0.001 0.006 0.033 0.004 0.409 0.066 0.008 8.914 0.111 0.014 9.329

Total 3.955 0.501 1.727 2.737 0.346 24.638 2.876 0.364 283.932 9.568 1.211 310.297

Pipeline 1.367 0.087 0.525 1.105 0.070 5.721 0.354 0.023 5.504 2.826 0.180 11.751

Platforms 4.210 0.268 1.902 0.357 0.023 2.008 0.357 0.023 2.008 4.923 0.314 5.918

Production Wells 0.267 0.017 0.139 0.800 0.051 9.883 1.334 0.085 161.423 2.401 0.153 171.445

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.843 0.372 2.566 2.262 0.144 17.613 2.045 0.130 168.936 10.150 0.647 189.114

Pipeline 2.734 0.116 1.050 2.211 0.094 11.443 0.708 0.030 11.009 5.652 0.240 23.501

Platforms 6.315 0.268 2.854 0.535 0.023 3.012 0.535 0.023 3.012 7.384 0.313 8.878

Production Wells 0.400 0.017 0.208 1.201 0.051 14.825 2.001 0.085 242.135 3.602 0.153 257.168

Exploration Wells 0.565 0.024 0.294 1.700 0.072 20.936 2.684 0.114 312.997 4.949 0.210 334.226

Development Wells

Total 10.014 0.424 4.405 5.646 0.239 50.215 5.928 0.251 569.152 21.587 0.915 623.773

Pipeline 4.100 0.104 1.575 3.316 0.084 17.164 1.062 0.027 16.513 8.478 0.215 35.252

Platforms 9.553 0.242 4.317 0.809 0.021 4.556 0.809 0.021 4.556 11.171 0.284 13.430

Production Wells 0.605 0.015 0.314 1.816 0.046 22.428 3.027 0.077 366.307 5.449 0.138 389.049

Exploration Wells 0.384 0.010 0.200 1.156 0.029 14.236 1.825 0.046 212.838 3.365 0.085 227.274

Development Wells 0.017 0.000 0.009 0.050 0.001 0.614 0.100 0.003 13.370 0.166 0.004 13.993

Total 14.660 0.372 6.415 7.147 0.181 58.998 6.823 0.173 613.584 28.630 0.727 678.997

Pipeline 4.100 0.092 1.575 3.316 0.075 17.164 1.062 0.024 16.513 8.478 0.191 35.252

Platforms 11.683 0.263 5.280 0.990 0.022 5.572 0.990 0.022 5.572 13.662 0.308 16.424

Production Wells 0.739 0.017 0.384 2.216 0.050 27.369 3.694 0.083 447.018 6.649 0.150 474.771

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.022 0.000 0.012 0.066 0.001 0.819 0.133 0.003 17.827 0.221 0.005 18.657

Total 16.544 0.373 7.250 6.589 0.148 50.924 5.878 0.132 486.931 29.011 0.653 545.105

Pipeline 6.796 0.123 2.611 5.464 0.099 28.279 1.752 0.032 27.240 14.011 0.253 58.129

Platforms 13.387 0.242 6.050 1.134 0.021 6.384 1.134 0.021 6.384 15.654 0.283 18.818

Production Wells 0.841 0.015 0.437 2.524 0.046 31.171 4.207 0.076 509.104 7.573 0.137 540.712

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.004 0.106 0.612 0.011 7.537 0.966 0.017 112.679 1.782 0.032 120.321

Development Wells 0.011 0.000 0.006 0.033 0.001 0.409 0.066 0.001 8.914 0.111 0.002 9.329

Total 21.239 0.384 9.209 9.767 0.177 73.779 8.125 0.147 664.320 39.131 0.708 747.309

Pipeline 6.796 0.114 2.611 5.464 0.092 28.279 1.752 0.029 27.240 14.011 0.235 58.129

Platforms 15.602 0.262 7.051 1.321 0.022 7.440 1.321 0.022 7.440 18.244 0.307 21.930

Production Wells 0.975 0.016 0.506 2.924 0.049 36.112 4.874 0.082 589.816 8.773 0.147 626.434

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 23.372 0.393 10.168 9.709 0.163 71.830 7.947 0.134 624.495 41.028 0.690 706.493

Pipeline 10.950 0.147 4.169 8.454 0.113 43.790 2.693 0.036 41.823 22.097 0.297 89.783

Platforms 17.816 0.239 8.052 1.509 0.020 8.495 1.509 0.020 8.495 20.833 0.280 25.041

Production Wells 1.108 0.015 0.576 3.325 0.045 41.054 5.541 0.074 670.527 9.974 0.134 712.157

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.003 0.106 0.612 0.008 7.537 0.966 0.013 112.679 1.782 0.024 120.321

Development Wells

Total 30.078 0.404 12.902 13.900 0.187 100.876 10.709 0.144 833.524 54.686 0.734 947.302

Pipeline 10.950 0.144 4.169 8.454 0.111 43.790 2.693 0.035 41.823 22.097 0.290 89.783

Platforms 21.905 0.288 9.899 1.855 0.024 10.443 1.855 0.024 10.443 25.614 0.337 30.786

Production Wells 1.354 0.018 0.704 4.063 0.053 50.177 6.772 0.089 819.533 12.190 0.160 870.414

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.003 0.106 0.612 0.008 7.537 0.966 0.013 112.679 1.782 0.023 120.321

Development Wells

Total 34.413 0.452 14.878 14.984 0.197 111.947 12.286 0.161 984.479 61.684 0.811 1111.304

Pipeline 15.787 0.154 5.989 11.998 0.117 62.163 3.811 0.037 59.160 31.596 0.308 127.311

Platforms 25.994 0.254 11.747 2.201 0.021 12.392 2.201 0.021 12.392 30.395 0.297 36.530

Production Wells 1.601 0.016 0.831 4.802 0.047 59.300 8.004 0.078 968.539 14.407 0.141 1028.671

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 43.382 0.423 18.568 19.001 0.185 133.854 14.016 0.137 1040.091 76.398 0.745 1192.513

Pipeline 15.787 0.153 5.989 11.998 0.116 62.163 3.811 0.037 59.160 31.596 0.305 127.311

Platforms 29.401 0.284 13.287 2.489 0.024 14.015 2.489 0.024 14.015 34.379 0.332 41.318

Production Wells 1.806 0.017 0.938 5.418 0.052 66.903 9.030 0.087 1092.711 16.254 0.157 1160.552

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 46.994 0.454 20.214 19.905 0.192 143.080 15.330 0.148 1165.886 82.229 0.794 1329.181

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010 7.9

15.7

2012 23.6

2013 39.4

2016 59.5

2014 44.4

2015 55.3

2017 74.5

2018 76.1

2019 102.5

2020 103.5

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4412
Table 4.4.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 15.787 0.161 5.989 11.998 0.123 62.163 3.811 0.039 59.160 31.596 0.323 127.311

Platforms 32.809 0.335 14.827 2.777 0.028 15.639 2.777 0.028 15.639 38.363 0.392 46.105

Production Wells 2.011 0.021 1.045 6.034 0.062 74.505 10.056 0.103 1216.883 18.101 0.185 1292.433

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 50.607 0.517 21.861 20.809 0.213 152.307 16.645 0.170 1291.681 88.060 0.899 1465.849

Pipeline 15.787 0.170 5.989 11.998 0.129 62.163 3.811 0.041 59.160 31.596 0.339 127.311

Platforms 34.512 0.371 15.597 2.921 0.031 16.451 2.921 0.031 16.451 40.355 0.433 48.498

Production Wells 2.114 0.023 1.098 6.342 0.068 78.306 10.569 0.114 1278.969 19.025 0.204 1358.373

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 52.413 0.563 22.684 21.261 0.228 156.920 17.302 0.186 1354.579 90.976 0.977 1534.183

Pipeline 15.787 0.184 5.989 11.998 0.140 62.163 3.811 0.045 59.160 31.596 0.369 127.311

Platforms 34.512 0.403 15.597 2.921 0.034 16.451 2.921 0.034 16.451 40.355 0.471 48.498

Production Wells 2.114 0.025 1.098 6.342 0.074 78.306 10.569 0.123 1278.969 19.025 0.222 1358.373

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 52.413 0.612 22.684 21.261 0.248 156.920 17.302 0.202 1354.579 90.976 1.063 1534.183

Pipeline 15.787 0.199 5.989 11.998 0.151 62.163 3.811 0.048 59.160 31.596 0.399 127.311

Platforms 34.512 0.436 15.597 2.921 0.037 16.451 2.921 0.037 16.451 40.355 0.510 48.498

Production Wells 2.114 0.027 1.098 6.342 0.080 78.306 10.569 0.133 1278.969 19.025 0.240 1358.373

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 52.413 0.662 22.684 21.261 0.268 156.920 17.302 0.218 1354.579 90.976 1.149 1534.183

Pipeline 14.421 0.214 5.464 10.892 0.161 56.441 3.457 0.051 53.655 28.770 0.426 115.561

Platforms 30.788 0.456 13.914 2.606 0.039 14.675 2.606 0.039 14.675 36.000 0.533 43.263

Production Wells 1.878 0.028 0.975 5.633 0.083 69.563 9.389 0.139 1136.171 16.900 0.250 1206.710

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 47.087 0.698 20.353 19.132 0.283 140.679 15.452 0.229 1204.501 81.671 1.210 1365.534

Pipeline 14.421 0.244 5.464 10.892 0.185 56.441 3.457 0.059 53.655 28.770 0.488 115.561

Platforms 30.788 0.522 13.914 2.606 0.044 14.675 2.606 0.044 14.675 36.000 0.610 43.263

Production Wells 1.878 0.032 0.975 5.633 0.095 69.563 9.389 0.159 1136.171 16.900 0.286 1206.710

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 47.087 0.798 20.353 19.132 0.324 140.679 15.452 0.262 1204.501 81.671 1.384 1365.534

Pipeline 13.054 0.262 4.939 9.787 0.196 50.720 3.103 0.062 48.151 25.944 0.520 103.810

Platforms 27.064 0.542 12.231 2.291 0.046 12.898 2.291 0.046 12.898 31.645 0.634 38.027

Production Wells 1.642 0.033 0.853 4.925 0.099 60.821 8.209 0.165 993.374 14.776 0.296 1055.047

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 41.760 0.837 18.023 17.003 0.341 124.439 13.603 0.273 1054.423 72.366 1.450 1196.884

Pipeline 11.004 0.261 4.152 8.129 0.193 42.138 2.572 0.061 39.894 21.705 0.514 86.184

Platforms 23.340 0.553 10.548 1.975 0.047 11.122 1.975 0.047 11.122 27.290 0.647 32.792

Production Wells 1.406 0.033 0.730 4.217 0.100 52.078 7.029 0.167 850.576 12.652 0.300 903.384

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 35.750 0.847 15.430 14.321 0.339 105.337 11.577 0.274 901.592 61.647 1.461 1022.360

Pipeline 11.004 0.297 4.152 8.129 0.220 42.138 2.572 0.070 39.894 21.705 0.587 86.184

Platforms 23.340 0.631 10.548 1.975 0.053 11.122 1.975 0.053 11.122 27.290 0.738 32.792

Production Wells 1.406 0.038 0.730 4.217 0.114 52.078 7.029 0.190 850.576 12.652 0.342 903.384

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 35.750 0.966 15.430 14.321 0.387 105.337 11.577 0.313 901.592 61.647 1.666 1022.360

Pipeline 9.637 0.297 3.627 7.023 0.217 36.416 2.219 0.068 34.390 18.879 0.583 74.433

Platforms 23.340 0.720 10.548 1.975 0.061 11.122 1.975 0.061 11.122 27.290 0.842 32.792

Production Wells 1.406 0.043 0.730 4.217 0.130 52.078 7.029 0.217 850.576 12.652 0.391 903.384

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 34.383 1.061 14.905 13.216 0.408 99.616 11.223 0.346 896.088 58.821 1.815 1010.609

Pipeline 9.637 0.338 3.096 7.023 0.246 33.016 2.219 0.078 31.897 18.879 0.662 68.008

Platforms 23.340 0.819 10.548 1.975 0.069 11.122 1.975 0.069 11.122 27.290 0.958 32.792

Production Wells 1.406 0.049 0.730 4.217 0.148 52.078 7.029 0.247 850.576 12.652 0.444 903.384

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 34.383 1.206 14.374 13.216 0.464 96.215 11.223 0.394 893.595 58.821 2.064 1004.184

Pipeline 9.637 0.385 3.627 7.023 0.281 36.416 2.219 0.089 34.390 18.879 0.755 74.433

Platforms 23.340 0.934 10.548 1.975 0.079 11.122 1.975 0.079 11.122 27.290 1.092 32.792

Production Wells 1.406 0.056 0.730 4.217 0.169 52.078 7.029 0.281 850.576 12.652 0.506 903.384

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 34.383 1.375 14.905 13.216 0.529 99.616 11.223 0.449 896.088 58.821 2.353 1010.609

Pipeline 9.637 0.440 3.627 7.023 0.321 36.416 2.219 0.101 34.390 18.879 0.862 74.433

Platforms 23.340 1.066 10.548 1.975 0.090 11.122 1.975 0.090 11.122 27.290 1.246 32.792

Production Wells 1.406 0.064 0.730 4.217 0.193 52.078 7.029 0.321 850.576 12.652 0.578 903.384

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 34.383 1.570 14.905 13.216 0.603 99.616 11.223 0.512 896.088 58.821 2.686 1010.609

Pipeline 8.308 0.489 3.116 5.981 0.352 31.023 1.883 0.111 29.168 16.172 0.951 63.307

Platforms 19.422 1.142 8.777 1.644 0.097 9.255 1.644 0.097 9.255 22.709 1.336 27.287

Production Wells 1.170 0.069 0.608 3.509 0.206 43.335 5.849 0.344 707.779 10.528 0.619 751.721

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.900 1.700 12.500 11.134 0.655 83.613 9.375 0.551 746.201 49.409 2.906 842.314

Pipeline 8.308 0.558 3.116 5.981 0.401 31.023 1.883 0.126 29.168 16.172 1.085 63.307

Platforms 19.422 1.303 8.777 1.644 0.110 9.255 1.644 0.110 9.255 22.709 1.524 27.287

Production Wells 1.170 0.079 0.608 3.509 0.236 43.335 5.849 0.393 707.779 10.528 0.707 751.721

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.900 1.940 12.500 11.134 0.747 83.613 9.375 0.629 746.201 49.409 3.316 842.314

Pipeline 5.502 0.663 2.076 4.064 0.490 21.069 1.286 0.155 19.947 10.852 1.308 43.092

Platforms 11.585 1.396 5.235 0.980 0.118 5.520 0.980 0.118 5.520 13.546 1.632 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.084 0.362 2.093 0.252 25.849 3.489 0.420 422.184 6.280 0.757 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.784 2.143 7.674 7.138 0.860 52.438 5.755 0.693 447.651 30.678 3.696 507.763

Pipeline 5.502 0.754 2.076 4.064 0.557 21.069 1.286 0.176 19.947 10.852 1.487 43.092

Platforms 11.585 1.587 5.235 0.980 0.134 5.520 0.980 0.134 5.520 13.546 1.856 16.276

Production Wells 0.698 0.096 0.362 2.093 0.287 25.849 3.489 0.478 422.184 6.280 0.860 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.784 2.436 7.674 7.138 0.978 52.438 5.755 0.788 447.651 30.678 4.202 507.763

Pipeline 5.502 0.846 2.076 4.064 0.625 21.069 1.286 0.198 19.947 10.852 1.670 43.092

Platforms 11.585 1.782 5.235 0.980 0.151 5.520 0.980 0.151 5.520 13.546 2.084 16.276

2021 97.9

2022 93.1

2023 85.6

2024 79.2

2025 67.5

2026 59.0

2027 49.9

2028 42.2

2029 37.0

2030 32.4

2031 25.0

2032 21.9

2033 14.9

2034 8.3

2035 6.5

2036

2037

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4412
Table 4.4.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Production Wells 0.698 0.107 0.362 2.093 0.322 25.849 3.489 0.537 422.184 6.280 0.966 448.395

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.784 2.736 7.674 7.138 1.098 52.438 5.755 0.885 447.651 30.678 4.720 507.763

2038

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4412
Table 4.4.13

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale All - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2005 0.158 0.082 0.476 5.862 0.751 87.639 1.227 93.501 1.386 93.583

2006 0.168 0.087 0.505 6.220 0.810 95.439 1.315 101.659 1.483 101.746

2007 0.317 0.164 0.952 11.724 1.503 175.278 2.455 187.002 2.771 187.167

2008 0.349 0.181 1.049 12.920 1.668 195.597 2.717 208.517 3.066 208.698

2009 0.707 0.335 0.706 8.430 1.112 126.816 1.819 135.245 2.526 135.580

2010 7.9 3.955 0.015 1.727 2.737 0.046 24.638 2.876 0.077 283.932 5.613 0.123 308.569 9.568 0.200 310.297

2011 15.7 5.843 0.010 2.566 2.262 0.029 17.613 2.045 0.046 168.936 4.307 0.076 186.548 10.150 0.122 189.114

2012 23.6 10.014 0.000 4.405 5.646 0.001 50.215 5.928 0.003 569.152 11.574 0.004 619.368 21.587 0.006 623.773

2013 39.4 14.660 0.372 6.415 7.147 0.181 58.998 6.823 0.173 613.584 13.970 0.355 672.583 28.630 0.727 678.997

2014 44.4 16.544 0.373 7.250 6.589 0.148 50.924 5.878 0.132 486.931 12.467 0.281 537.855 29.011 0.653 545.105

2015 55.3 21.239 0.384 9.209 9.767 0.177 73.779 8.125 0.147 664.320 17.892 0.324 738.100 39.131 0.708 747.309

2016 59.5 23.372 0.393 10.168 9.709 0.163 71.830 7.947 0.134 624.495 17.656 0.297 696.325 41.028 0.690 706.493

2017 74.5 30.078 0.404 12.902 13.900 0.187 100.876 10.709 0.144 833.524 24.608 0.330 934.400 54.686 0.734 947.302

2018 76.1 34.413 0.452 14.878 14.984 0.197 111.947 12.286 0.161 984.479 27.271 0.358 ####### 61.684 0.811 #######

2019 102.5 43.382 0.423 18.568 19.001 0.185 133.854 14.016 0.137 ####### 33.016 0.322 ####### 76.398 0.745 #######

2020 103.5 46.994 0.454 20.214 19.905 0.192 143.080 15.330 0.148 ####### 35.235 0.340 ####### 82.229 0.794 #######

2021 97.9 50.607 0.517 21.861 20.809 0.213 152.307 16.645 0.170 ####### 37.453 0.383 ####### 88.060 0.899 #######

2022 93.1 52.413 0.563 22.684 21.261 0.228 156.920 17.302 0.186 ####### 38.563 0.414 ####### 90.976 0.977 #######

2023 85.6 52.413 0.612 22.684 21.261 0.248 156.920 17.302 0.202 ####### 38.563 0.450 ####### 90.976 1.063 #######

2024 79.2 52.413 0.662 22.684 21.261 0.268 156.920 17.302 0.218 ####### 38.563 0.487 ####### 90.976 1.149 #######

2025 67.5 47.087 0.698 20.353 19.132 0.283 140.679 15.452 0.229 ####### 34.584 0.512 ####### 81.671 1.210 #######

2026 59.0 47.087 0.798 20.353 19.132 0.324 140.679 15.452 0.262 ####### 34.584 0.586 ####### 81.671 1.384 #######

2027 49.9 41.760 0.837 18.023 17.003 0.341 124.439 13.603 0.273 ####### 30.606 0.613 ####### 72.366 1.450 #######

2028 42.2 35.750 0.847 15.430 14.321 0.339 105.337 11.577 0.274 901.592 25.898 0.614 ####### 61.647 1.461 #######

2029 37.0 35.750 0.966 15.430 14.321 0.387 105.337 11.577 0.313 901.592 25.898 0.700 ####### 61.647 1.666 #######

2030 32.4 34.383 1.061 14.905 13.216 0.408 99.616 11.223 0.346 896.088 24.438 0.754 995.704 58.821 1.815 #######

2031 28.5 34.383 1.206 14.374 13.216 0.464 96.215 11.223 0.394 893.595 24.438 0.857 989.810 58.821 2.064 #######

2032 25.0 34.383 1.375 14.905 13.216 0.529 99.616 11.223 0.449 896.088 24.438 0.978 995.704 58.821 2.353 #######

2033 21.9 34.383 1.570 14.905 13.216 0.603 99.616 11.223 0.512 896.088 24.438 1.116 995.704 58.821 2.686 #######

2034 17.0 28.900 1.700 12.500 11.134 0.655 83.613 9.375 0.551 746.20 20.51 1.21 829.81 49.409 2.906 842.314

2035 14.9 28.900 1.940 12.500 11.134 0.747 83.613 9.375 0.629 746.20 20.51 1.38 829.81 49.409 3.316 842.314

2036 8.3 17.784 2.143 7.674 7.138 0.860 52.438 5.755 0.693 447.65 12.89 1.55 500.09 30.678 3.696 507.763

2037 7.3 17.784 2.436 7.674 7.138 0.978 52.438 5.755 0.788 447.65 12.89 1.77 500.09 30.678 4.202 507.763

2038 6.5 17.784 2.736 7.674 7.138 1.098 52.438 5.755 0.885 447.65 12.89 1.98 500.09 30.678 4.720 507.763

Total

 LOF 1375.6 916.315 396 380.855 2848 315.678 25243 696.533 28091 1612.848 28487

Average LOF 26.180 0.666 11 10.882 0.277 81 9.019 0.229 721 19.901 0.506 803 46.081 1.172 814

26.180 10.882 9.019 19.901 46.081

0.666 0.277 0.229 0.506 1.172

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4413
Table 4.4.14

Sale All - Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 52.45 21.26 17.30 38.56 91.01 0.66 0.27 0.22 0.49 1.15 22.73 156.27 1353.38 1509.65 1532.37

Std Deviation = 20.57 6.40 4.06 8.78 22.34 0.26 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.28 15.21 71.44 510.79 517.30 517.37

Variance = 423.036 40.954 16.455 77.053 499.235 0.067 0.007 0.003 0.012 0.080 231.338 5103.875 260906.500 267599.800 267671.600

Skewness = 0.60 0.47 0.04 0.21 0.50 0.60 0.47 0.04 0.21 0.50 1.46 0.79 0.46 0.44 0.44

Kurtosis = 2.75 2.92 2.82 2.85 2.91 2.75 2.92 2.82 2.85 2.91 5.62 3.73 3.22 3.20 3.20

Mode = 55.69 23.48 19.56 43.68 85.03 0.70 0.30 0.20 0.32 1.07 28.49 103.49 1300.75 1426.65 1857.77

Minimum = 13.749 5.866 4.490 14.450 37.305 0.174 0.074 0.057 0.182 0.471 0 -0.045 0.472 108.240 217.958 231.395

5% Perc = 24.290 11.935 10.700 24.771 58.660 0.307 0.151 0.135 0.313 0.741 5 5.959 58.422 577.892 709.892 732.034

10% Perc = 28.100 13.590 12.105 27.682 63.667 0.355 0.172 0.153 0.350 0.804 10 7.677 72.975 719.287 867.236 885.112

15% Perc = 31.234 14.755 13.038 29.604 67.934 0.394 0.186 0.165 0.374 0.858 15 9.213 85.000 832.765 977.707 1002.789

20% Perc = 33.724 15.781 13.829 31.015 71.151 0.426 0.199 0.175 0.392 0.898 20 10.428 94.781 911.530 1064.031 1083.715

25% Perc = 36.279 16.540 14.513 32.317 74.441 0.458 0.209 0.183 0.408 0.940 25 11.729 104.082 986.034 1145.211 1165.662

30% Perc = 38.489 17.341 15.103 33.534 77.236 0.486 0.219 0.191 0.423 0.975 30 12.967 112.654 1058.358 1212.308 1233.480

35% Perc = 41.230 18.141 15.673 34.688 80.101 0.521 0.229 0.198 0.438 1.011 35 14.241 121.292 1127.945 1280.512 1304.389

40% Perc = 43.802 18.959 16.212 35.791 82.608 0.553 0.239 0.205 0.452 1.043 40 15.676 129.251 1192.571 1348.844 1370.789

45% Perc = 46.209 19.696 16.699 37.025 85.447 0.583 0.249 0.211 0.467 1.079 45 17.146 137.663 1250.660 1404.168 1429.349

50% Perc = 48.820 20.466 17.252 38.151 88.336 0.616 0.258 0.218 0.482 1.115 50 18.709 146.624 1310.894 1465.355 1489.497

55% Perc = 51.908 21.262 17.790 39.320 91.038 0.655 0.268 0.225 0.496 1.149 55 20.366 155.272 1378.852 1535.364 1557.961

60% Perc = 55.201 22.257 18.324 40.466 94.386 0.697 0.281 0.231 0.511 1.192 60 22.313 164.544 1447.672 1600.281 1625.762

65% Perc = 58.479 23.196 18.891 41.693 98.049 0.738 0.293 0.239 0.526 1.238 65 24.323 175.867 1518.871 1674.450 1699.064

70% Perc = 62.423 24.311 19.509 42.885 101.970 0.788 0.307 0.246 0.541 1.287 70 26.689 185.200 1596.052 1754.972 1775.350

75% Perc = 66.391 25.463 20.065 44.478 106.083 0.838 0.322 0.253 0.562 1.339 75 29.514 197.819 1672.334 1838.206 1858.481

80% Perc = 70.531 26.738 20.767 46.127 110.150 0.891 0.338 0.262 0.582 1.391 80 33.362 211.034 1767.142 1938.538 1959.780

85% Perc = 75.765 28.238 21.572 47.936 114.918 0.957 0.357 0.272 0.605 1.451 85 37.496 227.636 1884.478 2060.512 2078.367

90% Perc = 82.226 30.081 22.611 50.401 121.986 1.038 0.380 0.285 0.636 1.540 90 43.785 254.222 2030.915 2202.656 2222.262

95% Perc = 90.639 32.887 24.025 53.495 132.122 1.144 0.415 0.303 0.675 1.668 95 53.653 288.119 2248.560 2419.572 2441.614

Maximum = 129.818 44.548 30.621 69.495 170.762 1.639 0.562 0.387 0.877 2.156 ## 110.761 503.024 3598.909 3683.093 3701.255

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4414
Table 4.4.15

Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 7.98 6.03 1.92 7.94 15.92 0.20 0.15 0.05 0.20 0.41 3.02 31.28 29.65 60.93 63.95

Std Deviation = 2.95 2.80 0.93 2.96 4.20 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.11 2.12 22.56 15.72 27.43 27.52

Variance = 8.697 7.844 0.868 8.736 17.618 0.006 0.005 0.001 0.006 0.011 4.515 509.103 247.210 752.679 757.100

Skewness = 0.55 0.68 0.70 0.58 0.38 0.55 0.68 0.70 0.58 0.38 1.48 1.33 0.91 0.91 0.91

Kurtosis = 2.83 2.93 3.02 2.93 2.93 2.83 2.93 3.02 2.93 2.93 5.75 5.08 3.64 4.11 4.10

Mode = 5.80 4.36 0.96 6.41 18.78 0.15 0.11 0.03 0.25 0.48 4.96 17.62 24.13 62.70 77.58

Minimum = 1.766 0.762 0.214 1.504 4.562 0.045 0.019 0.005 0.038 0.116 0 -0.051 -3.569 2.469 7.090 8.102

5% Perc = 3.809 2.336 0.692 3.824 9.569 0.097 0.059 0.018 0.097 0.243 5 0.667 5.161 9.912 24.220 27.174

10% Perc = 4.417 2.835 0.832 4.492 10.672 0.112 0.072 0.021 0.114 0.272 10 0.943 8.135 12.228 29.559 32.575

15% Perc = 4.916 3.191 0.957 4.917 11.481 0.125 0.081 0.024 0.125 0.292 15 1.127 10.667 14.043 33.773 36.431

20% Perc = 5.328 3.518 1.063 5.300 12.182 0.136 0.090 0.027 0.135 0.310 20 1.312 12.918 15.805 37.070 40.115

25% Perc = 5.696 3.814 1.190 5.684 12.811 0.145 0.097 0.030 0.145 0.326 25 1.486 14.875 17.583 40.833 43.775

30% Perc = 6.055 4.147 1.287 6.033 13.387 0.154 0.106 0.033 0.154 0.341 30 1.652 17.004 19.260 43.966 46.994

35% Perc = 6.429 4.439 1.387 6.385 14.007 0.164 0.113 0.035 0.163 0.356 35 1.847 18.931 20.854 47.119 50.177

40% Perc = 6.782 4.775 1.506 6.728 14.559 0.173 0.121 0.038 0.171 0.370 40 2.031 21.024 22.557 50.444 53.534

45% Perc = 7.199 5.131 1.618 7.103 15.126 0.183 0.131 0.041 0.181 0.385 45 2.221 23.199 24.342 53.703 56.675

50% Perc = 7.639 5.512 1.741 7.525 15.676 0.194 0.140 0.044 0.191 0.399 50 2.438 25.666 26.376 56.809 59.833

55% Perc = 8.024 5.924 1.883 7.943 16.150 0.204 0.151 0.048 0.202 0.411 55 2.679 28.229 28.558 60.327 63.287

60% Perc = 8.485 6.340 2.031 8.352 16.786 0.216 0.161 0.052 0.213 0.427 60 2.953 31.107 30.995 63.555 66.595

65% Perc = 8.929 6.814 2.187 8.803 17.398 0.227 0.173 0.056 0.224 0.443 65 3.242 34.328 33.266 67.544 70.501

70% Perc = 9.405 7.316 2.370 9.354 18.055 0.239 0.186 0.060 0.238 0.459 70 3.598 37.556 35.853 72.183 75.053

75% Perc = 9.881 7.892 2.538 9.910 18.692 0.251 0.201 0.065 0.252 0.476 75 3.983 42.069 39.071 76.663 79.633

80% Perc = 10.543 8.465 2.734 10.481 19.501 0.268 0.215 0.070 0.267 0.496 80 4.469 47.300 42.697 81.585 84.550

85% Perc = 11.252 9.199 2.936 11.190 20.411 0.286 0.234 0.075 0.285 0.519 85 5.098 53.287 46.763 88.177 91.251

90% Perc = 12.052 10.032 3.231 12.114 21.518 0.307 0.255 0.082 0.308 0.547 90 5.967 62.270 51.421 97.102 100.452

95% Perc = 13.353 11.284 3.669 13.411 23.186 0.340 0.287 0.093 0.341 0.590 95 7.311 77.272 59.574 112.514 115.380

Maximum = 19.827 17.344 6.280 20.874 35.399 0.504 0.441 0.160 0.531 0.901 ## 16.675 147.784 114.625 198.617 199.930

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4415
Table 4.4.16

Sale All LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 17.06 1.44 1.44 2.89 19.95 0.43 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.51 7.72 8.21 8.21 16.42 24.14

Std Deviation = 9.62 0.85 0.85 1.69 9.80 0.24 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.25 7.18 6.68 6.68 13.37 15.19

Variance = 92.489 0.715 0.715 2.860 95.962 0.060 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.062 51.511 44.667 44.667 178.669 230.697

Skewness = 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.63 1.55 1.27 1.27 1.27 0.97

Kurtosis = 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.76 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.76 5.60 4.65 4.65 4.65 3.88

Mode = 6.94 0.47 0.47 0.94 13.86 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.35 1.45 1.52 1.52 3.05 32.42

Minimum = 1.672 0.096 0.096 0.192 3.342 0.043 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.085 0 -1.911 -3.582 -3.582 -7.164 -1.901

5% Perc = 4.579 0.350 0.350 0.700 6.950 0.116 0.009 0.009 0.018 0.177 5 0.489 0.782 0.782 1.563 5.196

10% Perc = 5.799 0.463 0.463 0.926 8.500 0.148 0.012 0.012 0.024 0.216 10 1.053 1.472 1.472 2.943 7.277

15% Perc = 6.854 0.558 0.558 1.117 9.642 0.174 0.014 0.014 0.028 0.245 15 1.491 2.012 2.012 4.024 8.977

20% Perc = 8.006 0.654 0.654 1.307 10.799 0.204 0.017 0.017 0.033 0.275 20 1.958 2.588 2.588 5.176 10.692

25% Perc = 9.142 0.753 0.753 1.507 11.933 0.233 0.019 0.019 0.038 0.304 25 2.447 3.167 3.167 6.335 12.303

30% Perc = 10.268 0.848 0.848 1.696 13.287 0.261 0.022 0.022 0.043 0.338 30 3.008 3.753 3.753 7.505 14.032

35% Perc = 11.333 0.950 0.950 1.900 14.381 0.288 0.024 0.024 0.048 0.366 35 3.576 4.313 4.313 8.627 15.844

40% Perc = 12.688 1.052 1.052 2.104 15.602 0.323 0.027 0.027 0.054 0.397 40 4.189 4.930 4.930 9.859 17.510

45% Perc = 14.039 1.168 1.168 2.336 16.839 0.357 0.030 0.030 0.059 0.428 45 4.807 5.660 5.660 11.320 19.342

50% Perc = 15.550 1.284 1.284 2.568 18.253 0.396 0.033 0.033 0.065 0.464 50 5.457 6.472 6.472 12.945 21.329

55% Perc = 16.870 1.416 1.416 2.833 19.769 0.429 0.036 0.036 0.072 0.503 55 6.226 7.283 7.283 14.567 23.233

60% Perc = 18.373 1.554 1.554 3.107 21.416 0.467 0.040 0.040 0.079 0.545 60 7.151 8.276 8.276 16.552 25.295

65% Perc = 20.074 1.696 1.696 3.392 23.074 0.511 0.043 0.043 0.086 0.587 65 8.168 9.162 9.162 18.324 27.628

70% Perc = 21.775 1.856 1.856 3.712 24.771 0.554 0.047 0.047 0.094 0.630 70 9.370 10.276 10.276 20.552 30.071

75% Perc = 23.558 2.026 2.026 4.052 26.529 0.599 0.052 0.052 0.103 0.675 75 10.745 11.546 11.546 23.093 32.761

80% Perc = 25.594 2.194 2.194 4.388 28.645 0.651 0.056 0.056 0.112 0.729 80 12.434 13.140 13.140 26.279 36.004

85% Perc = 28.140 2.391 2.391 4.783 31.056 0.716 0.061 0.061 0.122 0.790 85 14.858 15.120 15.120 30.240 39.790

90% Perc = 30.915 2.677 2.677 5.353 34.003 0.787 0.068 0.068 0.136 0.865 90 17.867 17.686 17.686 35.371 45.432

95% Perc = 35.091 3.041 3.041 6.082 38.073 0.893 0.077 0.077 0.155 0.969 95 22.829 21.705 21.705 43.410 53.339

Maximum = 54.673 4.966 4.966 9.931 59.336 1.391 0.126 0.126 0.253 1.510 ## 50.298 45.654 45.654 91.308 100.394

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4416
Table 4.4.17

Sale All LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 1.16 3.48 5.80 9.28 10.44 0.03 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.60 42.77 701.78 744.54 745.14

Std Deviation = 0.43 1.28 1.56 2.71 2.76 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.41 27.92 261.72 263.21 263.22

Variance = 0.181 1.630 2.419 7.370 7.612 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.005 0.169 779.617 ######## 69282.110 69283.520

Skewness = -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.86 0.49 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.43 2.42 2.70 2.56 2.59 2.43 2.42 2.70 2.56 2.59 3.36 3.59 3.21 3.20 3.20

Mode = 1.48 3.91 5.78 9.32 11.46 0.03 0.10 0.15 0.24 0.29 0.48 27.75 717.36 640.81 701.94

Minimum = 0.114 0.265 1.135 1.891 2.359 0.003 0.007 0.029 0.048 0.060 0 -0.231 -7.006 106.755 132.868 133.022

5% Perc = 0.439 1.317 3.220 4.740 5.946 0.011 0.034 0.082 0.121 0.151 5 0.045 6.033 308.804 346.898 347.412

10% Perc = 0.584 1.738 3.803 5.699 6.788 0.015 0.044 0.097 0.145 0.173 10 0.129 10.760 381.613 427.042 427.906

15% Perc = 0.691 2.080 4.148 6.349 7.470 0.018 0.053 0.106 0.162 0.190 15 0.189 14.975 434.214 475.326 476.543

20% Perc = 0.780 2.341 4.442 6.874 8.010 0.020 0.060 0.113 0.175 0.204 20 0.239 18.473 477.991 518.629 519.037

25% Perc = 0.855 2.565 4.707 7.369 8.488 0.022 0.065 0.120 0.187 0.216 25 0.288 21.959 515.933 557.511 558.097

30% Perc = 0.926 2.764 4.934 7.774 8.893 0.024 0.070 0.126 0.198 0.226 30 0.337 24.906 549.658 593.042 593.407

35% Perc = 0.997 2.972 5.161 8.171 9.279 0.025 0.076 0.131 0.208 0.236 35 0.390 28.009 583.670 625.401 625.641

40% Perc = 1.052 3.147 5.382 8.544 9.696 0.027 0.080 0.137 0.217 0.247 40 0.442 31.091 614.382 656.471 656.893

45% Perc = 1.105 3.312 5.590 8.909 10.062 0.028 0.084 0.142 0.227 0.256 45 0.484 34.758 647.357 692.013 692.604

50% Perc = 1.165 3.490 5.794 9.297 10.466 0.030 0.089 0.147 0.237 0.266 50 0.532 37.761 678.268 721.969 722.632

55% Perc = 1.215 3.656 6.000 9.636 10.820 0.031 0.093 0.153 0.245 0.275 55 0.583 41.241 711.185 753.124 753.916

60% Perc = 1.275 3.822 6.217 10.040 11.208 0.032 0.097 0.158 0.255 0.285 60 0.646 44.828 741.838 787.710 788.140

65% Perc = 1.330 4.004 6.444 10.394 11.566 0.034 0.102 0.164 0.264 0.294 65 0.704 49.547 779.298 821.676 822.183

70% Perc = 1.396 4.183 6.663 10.782 11.979 0.036 0.106 0.170 0.274 0.305 70 0.771 54.176 819.131 862.778 863.011

75% Perc = 1.466 4.404 6.899 11.224 12.371 0.037 0.112 0.176 0.286 0.315 75 0.844 59.119 867.297 908.546 909.304

80% Perc = 1.540 4.620 7.159 11.672 12.873 0.039 0.118 0.182 0.297 0.328 80 0.934 64.461 917.072 959.622 960.082

85% Perc = 1.626 4.879 7.474 12.258 13.422 0.041 0.124 0.190 0.312 0.342 85 1.035 71.755 978.749 1022.035 1022.520

90% Perc = 1.739 5.213 7.806 12.845 14.063 0.044 0.133 0.199 0.327 0.358 90 1.165 82.106 1056.846 1098.501 1099.204

95% Perc = 1.860 5.602 8.314 13.730 14.962 0.047 0.143 0.212 0.349 0.381 95 1.395 96.535 1167.215 1213.940 1214.135

Maximum = 2.290 6.746 10.891 17.511 18.505 0.058 0.172 0.277 0.446 0.471 ## 2.374 175.015 1901.427 1920.087 1920.471

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4417
Table 4.4.18

Sale All LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 18.22 4.92 7.25 12.17 30.39 0.46 0.13 0.18 0.31 0.77 8.32 50.98 709.99 760.97 769.29

Std Deviation = 9.61 1.54 1.78 3.22 10.15 0.24 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.26 7.19 28.63 261.96 263.83 264.02

Variance = 92.435 2.374 3.160 10.342 103.020 0.060 0.002 0.002 0.007 0.067 51.662 819.415 ######## 69606.110 69704.840

Skewness = 0.65 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.55 0.65 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.55 1.54 0.80 0.49 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.76 2.66 2.77 2.72 2.77 2.76 2.66 2.77 2.72 2.77 5.61 3.51 3.21 3.20 3.20

Mode = 9.06 4.93 6.49 12.00 21.37 0.23 0.13 0.17 0.31 0.54 2.53 30.52 740.14 651.43 814.48

Minimum = 2.630 0.642 1.869 2.852 9.636 0.067 0.016 0.048 0.073 0.245 0 -1.806 -5.600 111.007 141.857 145.496

5% Perc = 5.741 2.428 4.380 6.992 16.453 0.146 0.062 0.111 0.178 0.419 5 1.029 12.242 317.648 361.610 368.706

10% Perc = 6.896 2.914 4.963 8.008 18.395 0.175 0.074 0.126 0.204 0.468 10 1.609 18.096 388.539 442.119 448.476

15% Perc = 8.081 3.280 5.364 8.765 19.782 0.206 0.083 0.136 0.223 0.503 15 2.133 22.412 441.967 489.426 498.891

20% Perc = 9.129 3.576 5.715 9.404 21.058 0.232 0.091 0.145 0.239 0.536 20 2.563 26.227 486.878 534.674 542.323

25% Perc = 10.338 3.854 5.997 9.869 22.328 0.263 0.098 0.153 0.251 0.568 25 3.058 29.517 524.213 573.935 581.810

30% Perc = 11.445 4.071 6.275 10.348 23.601 0.291 0.104 0.160 0.263 0.600 30 3.589 32.799 557.574 609.031 618.360

35% Perc = 12.534 4.268 6.509 10.820 24.966 0.319 0.109 0.166 0.275 0.635 35 4.192 36.407 591.172 642.615 650.440

40% Perc = 13.803 4.481 6.745 11.247 26.343 0.351 0.114 0.172 0.286 0.670 40 4.837 39.667 621.249 674.398 682.476

45% Perc = 15.184 4.675 6.968 11.701 27.607 0.386 0.119 0.177 0.298 0.702 45 5.384 42.996 656.098 708.690 715.943

50% Perc = 16.673 4.877 7.195 12.095 28.943 0.424 0.124 0.183 0.308 0.736 50 6.063 46.428 687.027 737.425 745.212

55% Perc = 18.114 5.065 7.452 12.522 30.395 0.461 0.129 0.190 0.319 0.773 55 6.844 49.943 717.842 768.714 777.410

60% Perc = 19.622 5.298 7.695 12.945 31.937 0.499 0.135 0.196 0.329 0.813 60 7.817 53.640 749.786 802.638 812.232

65% Perc = 21.295 5.519 7.936 13.404 33.504 0.542 0.140 0.202 0.341 0.852 65 8.799 57.955 788.946 839.157 847.322

70% Perc = 22.956 5.738 8.199 13.850 35.222 0.584 0.146 0.209 0.352 0.896 70 10.008 62.571 827.650 879.038 887.107

75% Perc = 24.732 6.010 8.467 14.384 37.265 0.629 0.153 0.215 0.366 0.948 75 11.405 67.449 875.338 923.778 932.314

80% Perc = 26.743 6.301 8.748 14.967 39.481 0.680 0.160 0.223 0.381 1.005 80 13.025 73.578 925.839 975.562 984.017

85% Perc = 29.138 6.616 9.103 15.631 41.796 0.741 0.168 0.232 0.398 1.063 85 15.479 81.018 987.202 1038.780 1046.746

90% Perc = 32.112 6.950 9.580 16.409 44.878 0.817 0.177 0.244 0.418 1.142 90 18.497 91.112 1065.238 1115.521 1125.099

95% Perc = 36.000 7.460 10.262 17.583 49.214 0.916 0.190 0.261 0.447 1.252 95 23.296 105.692 1175.295 1228.647 1237.990

Maximum = 55.712 10.348 13.769 23.358 74.959 1.418 0.263 0.350 0.594 1.907 ## 51.181 188.948 1913.210 1943.654 1958.132

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4418
Table 4.4.19

Sale All LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 26.20 10.95 9.16 20.11 46.31 0.67 0.28 0.23 0.51 1.18 11.34 82.26 739.64 821.90 833.24

Std Deviation = 10.06 3.20 2.00 4.36 10.96 0.26 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.28 7.50 36.79 262.46 265.12 265.32

Variance = 101.167 10.263 3.981 19.011 120.159 0.065 0.007 0.003 0.012 0.078 56.231 1353.609 68884.080 ######## 70392.300

Skewness = 0.56 0.45 0.17 0.23 0.43 0.56 0.45 0.17 0.23 0.43 1.40 0.73 0.50 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.75 2.95 2.86 2.97 2.77 2.75 2.95 2.86 2.97 2.77 5.23 3.60 3.22 3.20 3.20

Mode = 20.71 9.66 8.43 19.23 45.16 0.53 0.32 0.22 0.60 1.18 9.33 59.32 1034.12 1086.74 685.51

Minimum = 5.557 2.796 3.456 8.154 19.902 0.141 0.071 0.088 0.207 0.506 0 0.056 4.827 119.554 182.250 187.308

5% Perc = 12.253 6.245 6.003 13.171 30.108 0.312 0.159 0.153 0.335 0.766 5 3.001 30.912 345.480 424.725 435.264

10% Perc = 14.034 7.027 6.648 14.621 32.871 0.357 0.179 0.169 0.372 0.836 10 3.902 39.042 419.705 500.281 511.145

15% Perc = 15.607 7.624 7.068 15.471 34.835 0.397 0.194 0.180 0.394 0.886 15 4.580 44.616 470.057 549.673 560.386

20% Perc = 16.925 8.141 7.462 16.286 36.606 0.431 0.207 0.190 0.414 0.931 20 5.251 50.426 515.496 592.396 604.794

25% Perc = 18.186 8.596 7.759 16.972 38.058 0.463 0.219 0.197 0.432 0.968 25 5.895 55.274 551.641 633.235 645.421

30% Perc = 19.500 9.040 8.032 17.689 39.528 0.496 0.230 0.204 0.450 1.006 30 6.543 59.633 586.833 667.615 678.263

35% Perc = 20.792 9.423 8.321 18.252 40.889 0.529 0.240 0.212 0.464 1.040 35 7.188 64.432 621.179 701.528 714.535

40% Perc = 22.116 9.807 8.598 18.896 42.286 0.563 0.250 0.219 0.481 1.076 40 7.868 68.370 650.183 733.600 745.247

45% Perc = 23.445 10.199 8.832 19.458 43.652 0.597 0.260 0.225 0.495 1.111 45 8.679 72.952 684.349 768.292 778.592

50% Perc = 24.795 10.612 9.093 19.990 45.175 0.631 0.270 0.231 0.509 1.149 50 9.447 77.507 718.142 797.384 809.383

55% Perc = 26.390 11.011 9.332 20.492 46.670 0.671 0.280 0.237 0.521 1.187 55 10.205 82.087 747.555 832.969 843.105

60% Perc = 27.744 11.468 9.607 21.049 48.214 0.706 0.292 0.244 0.536 1.227 60 11.094 87.007 781.206 865.789 877.363

65% Perc = 29.287 12.002 9.886 21.706 49.898 0.745 0.305 0.252 0.552 1.270 65 12.193 91.916 818.614 898.992 910.877

70% Perc = 31.009 12.485 10.196 22.404 51.665 0.789 0.318 0.259 0.570 1.315 70 13.262 97.783 855.700 939.932 951.311

75% Perc = 32.835 13.095 10.496 23.081 53.671 0.835 0.333 0.267 0.587 1.366 75 14.714 103.868 903.406 986.514 998.616

80% Perc = 35.195 13.721 10.861 23.778 55.933 0.895 0.349 0.276 0.605 1.423 80 16.471 111.516 956.060 1037.991 1049.752

85% Perc = 37.550 14.420 11.301 24.680 58.398 0.955 0.367 0.288 0.628 1.486 85 18.680 120.696 1017.347 1100.212 1111.977

90% Perc = 40.501 15.362 11.753 25.767 61.657 1.030 0.391 0.299 0.656 1.569 90 21.663 132.212 1092.852 1176.330 1188.650

95% Perc = 44.691 16.607 12.540 27.470 65.972 1.137 0.423 0.319 0.699 1.679 95 27.034 150.113 1204.383 1292.420 1300.916

Maximum = 63.638 25.275 16.696 38.058 88.453 1.619 0.643 0.425 0.968 2.251 ## 54.455 254.302 1932.122 1974.712 1993.163

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4419
Table 4.4.20

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All - Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 15.787 50% 34.512 86% 2.114 11% 36.626 62% 52.413 58% Pipelines 15.787 30% 11.998 56% 3.811 22% 15.809 41% 31.596 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 11.998 38% 2.921 7% 6.342 33% 9.263 16% 21.261 23% Platforms 34.512 66% 2.921 14% 2.921 17% 5.843 15% 40.355 44%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 3.811 12% 2.921 7% 10.569 56% 13.491 23% 17.302 19% Wells 2.114 4% 6.342 30% 10.569 61% 16.911 44% 19.025 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 15.809 50% 5.843 14% 16.911 89% 22.754 38% 38.563 42% Platforms

and Wells 36.626 70% 9.263 44% 13.491 78% 22.754 59% 59.380 65%

All Spills 31.596 100% 40.355 100% 19.025 100% 59.380 100% 90.976 100% All 52.413 100% 21.261 100% 17.302 100% 38.563 100% 90.976 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.199 50% 0.436 86% 0.027 11% 0.462 62% 0.662 58% Pipelines 0.199 30% 0.151 56% 0.048 22% 0.200 41% 0.399 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.151 38% 0.037 7% 0.080 33% 0.117 16% 0.268 23% Platforms 0.436 66% 0.037 14% 0.037 17% 0.074 15% 0.510 44%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.048 12% 0.037 7% 0.133 56% 0.170 23% 0.218 19% Wells 0.027 4% 0.080 30% 0.133 61% 0.214 44% 0.240 21%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.200 50% 0.074 14% 0.214 89% 0.287 38% 0.487 42% Platformsand Wells 0.462 70% 0.117 44% 0.170 78% 0.287 59% 0.750 65%

All Spills 0.399 100% 0.510 100% 0.240 100% 0.750 100% 1.149 100% All 0.662 100% 0.268 100% 0.218 100% 0.487 100% 1.149 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 6 5% 16 32% 1 0% 17 1% 23 1% Pipelines 6 26% 62 40% 59 4% 121 8% 127 8%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 62 49% 16 34% 78 6% 95 7% 157 10% Platforms 16 69% 16 10% 16 1% 33 2% 48 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 59 46% 16 34% 1279 94% 1295 92% 1355 88% Wells 1 5% 78 50% 1279 94% 1357 90% 1358 89%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 121 95% 33 68% 1357 100% 1390 99% 1511 99% Platformsand Wells 17 74% 95 60% 1295 96% 1390 92% 1407 92%

All Spills 127 100% 48 100% 1358 100% 1407 100% 1534 100% All 23 100% 157 100% 1355 100% 1511 100% 1534 100%

Sale All - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale All - LYear 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale All - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale All - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale All - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale All - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4420
Table 4.4.21

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 7.984 50% 17.059 86% 1.137 11% 18.196 60% 26.180 57% Pipelines 7.984 30% 6.027 55% 1.913 21% 7.940 40% 15.925 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 6.027 38% 1.444 7% 3.410 33% 4.854 16% 10.882 24% Platforms 17.059 65% 1.444 13% 1.444 16% 2.888 15% 19.947 43%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 1.913 12% 1.444 7% 5.662 55% 7.106 24% 9.019 20% Wells 1.137 4% 3.410 31% 5.662 63% 9.073 46% 10.209 22%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 7.940 50% 2.888 14% 9.073 89% 11.961 40% 19.901 43% Platformsand Wells 18.196 70% 4.854 45% 7.106 79% 11.961 60% 30.157 65%

All Spills 15.925 100% 19.947 100% 10.209 100% 30.157 100% 46.081 100% All 26.180 100% 10.882 100% 9.019 100% 19.901 100% 46.081 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.203 50% 0.434 86% 0.029 11% 0.463 60% 0.666 57% Pipelines 0.203 30% 0.153 55% 0.049 21% 0.202 40% 0.405 35%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.153 38% 0.037 7% 0.087 33% 0.124 16% 0.277 24% Platforms 0.434 65% 0.037 13% 0.037 16% 0.073 15% 0.508 43%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.049 12% 0.037 7% 0.144 55% 0.181 24% 0.229 20% Wells 0.029 4% 0.087 31% 0.144 63% 0.231 46% 0.260 22%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.202 50% 0.073 14% 0.231 89% 0.304 40% 0.506 43% Platforms

and Wells 0.463 70% 0.124 45% 0.181 79% 0.304 60% 0.767 65%

All Spills 0.405 100% 0.508 100% 0.260 100% 0.767 100% 1.172 100% All 0.666 100% 0.277 100% 0.229 100% 0.506 100% 1.172 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 3 5% 8 32% 1 0% 8 1% 11 1% Pipelines 3 27% 31 38% 30 4% 61 8% 64 8%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 31 49% 8 34% 42 6% 50 7% 81 10% Platforms 8 68% 8 10% 8 1% 16 2% 24 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 30 46% 8 34% 683 94% 692 92% 721 89% Wells 1 5% 42 52% 683 95% 726 90% 726 89%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 61 95% 16 68% 726 100% 742 99% 803 99% Platforms

and Wells 8 73% 50 62% 692 96% 742 92% 750 92%

All Spills 64 100% 24 100% 726 100% 750 100% 814 100% All 11 100% 81 100% 721 100% 803 100% 814 100%

Sale All - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale All - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale All - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Sale All - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale All - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale All - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT4421
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4401

Sale All - Spill Frequency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4402

Sale All - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4403 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4404 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Frequency - P/L

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4405 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4406 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Index - P/L

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4407 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4408 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4409 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Index - Platforms

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4410 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Frequency - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4411 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4412 04/01/2005

Sale All - Spill Index - Wells

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.4.13 Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale All Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale All Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Index - CDF Sale All Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale All Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale All Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Index - CDF Sale All Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4413
Figure 4.4.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale All

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4414
Figure 4.4.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale All

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4415
Figure 4.4.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale All

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100

0

110

0

120

0

130

0

140

0

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100

0

110

0

120

0

130

0

140

0

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4416
Figure 4.4.17

Sale All - Year 2024 - Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale All - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

44%

35%

21%

Pipelines

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 90.976

Sale All - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

44%

35%

21%

Pipelines

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.149

Sale All - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

89%

8%

Pipelines 3%

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1534

Sale All- Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

58%

23%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 90.976

Sale All - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

23%

58% 19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.149

Sale All - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1534

C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4417
Figure 4.4.18

Sale All - LOF Average Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale All - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

56%

24%

20%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.178

Sale All - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

56%

20%

24%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 46.313

Sale All - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

35%

43% 22%

Pipelines

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 46.313

Sale All - LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

35%

22%

43%

Pipelines

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.178

Sale All - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

8%

3%

89%

Pipelines

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 833

Sale All - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 833

C4_4 Sale All.xlsF4418
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Beaufort Sea Sale All non Arctic
Table 4.5.1

Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All non ArcticP/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 10 8.320 1.339 0.10 8.320 1.339 0.69 9.985 1.607 8.31 3.328 0.536 8.33

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 1.339 0.10 1.339 0.69 1.607 8.31 0.536 8.33

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 10 8.320 1.339 0.10 8.320 1.339 0.69 9.985 1.607 8.31 3.328 0.536 8.33

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 1.339 0.10 1.339 0.69 1.607 8.31 0.536 8.33

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 20 2.678 0.19 2.678 1.38 3.213 16.63 1.071 16.66

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 8.320 4.016 0.29 8.320 4.016 2.07 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 30 4.016 0.29 4.016 2.07 4.820 24.94 1.607 24.98

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 8.320 4.016 0.29 8.320 4.016 2.07 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 30 4.016 0.29 4.016 2.07 4.820 24.94 1.607 24.98

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 10 8.320 1.339 0.10 8.320 1.339 0.69 9.985 1.607 8.31 3.328 0.536 8.33

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 50 6.694 0.48 6.694 3.45 8.033 41.57 2.678 41.64

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 10 8.320 1.339 0.10 8.320 1.339 0.69 9.985 1.607 8.31 3.328 0.536 8.33

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 50 6.694 0.48 6.694 3.45 8.033 41.57 2.678 41.64

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 50 8.320 6.694 0.48 8.320 6.694 3.45 9.985 8.033 41.57 3.328 2.678 41.64

Medium 5 5.172 0.416 0.03 9.051 0.728 0.35 5.172 0.416 2.20 1.293 0.104 1.55 25 8.320 3.347 0.24 8.320 3.347 1.73 9.985 4.016 20.79 3.328 1.339 20.82

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 5 0.416 0.03 0.728 0.35 0.416 2.20 0.104 1.55 75 10.041 0.71 10.041 5.18 12.049 62.36 4.016 62.46

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 50 8.320 6.694 0.48 8.320 6.694 3.45 9.985 8.033 41.57 3.328 2.678 41.64

Medium 5 5.172 0.416 0.03 9.051 0.728 0.35 5.172 0.416 2.20 1.293 0.104 1.55 25 8.320 3.347 0.24 8.320 3.347 1.73 9.985 4.016 20.79 3.328 1.339 20.82

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 5 0.416 0.03 0.728 0.35 0.416 2.20 0.104 1.55 75 10.041 0.71 10.041 5.18 12.049 62.36 4.016 62.46

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 65 8.320 8.702 0.62 8.320 8.702 4.49 9.985 10.442 54.05 3.328 3.481 54.13

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 105 14.057 1.00 14.057 7.25 16.868 87.31 5.623 87.45

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 65 8.320 8.702 0.62 8.320 8.702 4.49 9.985 10.442 54.05 3.328 3.481 54.13

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 105 14.057 1.00 14.057 7.25 16.868 87.31 5.623 87.45

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 65 8.320 8.702 0.62 8.320 8.702 4.49 9.985 10.442 54.05 3.328 3.481 54.13

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 105 14.057 1.00 14.057 7.25 16.868 87.31 5.623 87.45

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 65 8.320 8.702 0.62 8.320 8.702 4.49 9.985 10.442 54.05 3.328 3.481 54.13

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 105 14.057 1.00 14.057 7.25 16.868 87.31 5.623 87.45

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 65 8.320 8.702 0.62 8.320 8.702 4.49 9.985 10.442 54.05 3.328 3.481 54.13

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2014

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

2015

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4501
Table 4.5.1

Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All non ArcticP/L Spills

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 105 14.057 1.00 14.057 7.25 16.868 87.31 5.623 87.45

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 65 8.320 8.702 0.62 8.320 8.702 4.49 9.985 10.442 54.05 3.328 3.481 54.13

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 105 14.057 1.00 14.057 7.25 16.868 87.31 5.623 87.45

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 55 8.320 7.363 0.52 8.320 7.363 3.80 9.985 8.836 45.73 3.328 2.945 45.80

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 95 12.718 0.91 12.718 6.56 15.262 78.99 5.087 79.12

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 55 8.320 7.363 0.52 8.320 7.363 3.80 9.985 8.836 45.73 3.328 2.945 45.80

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 95 12.718 0.91 12.718 6.56 15.262 78.99 5.087 79.12

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 45 8.320 6.024 0.43 8.320 6.024 3.11 9.985 7.229 37.42 3.328 2.410 37.48

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 85 11.380 0.81 11.380 5.87 13.655 70.68 4.552 70.79

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 8.320 4.016 0.29 8.320 4.016 2.07 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 70 9.371 0.67 9.371 4.84 11.246 58.20 3.749 58.30

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 8.320 4.016 0.29 8.320 4.016 2.07 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 70 9.371 0.67 9.371 4.84 11.246 58.20 3.749 58.30

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 60 8.033 0.57 8.033 4.14 9.639 49.89 3.213 49.97

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 60 8.033 0.57 8.033 4.14 9.639 49.89 3.213 49.97

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 60 8.033 0.57 8.033 4.14 9.639 49.89 3.213 49.97

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 40 8.320 5.355 0.38 8.320 5.355 2.76 9.985 6.426 33.26 3.328 2.142 33.31

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 60 8.033 0.57 8.033 4.14 9.639 49.89 3.213 49.97

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 30 8.320 4.016 0.29 8.320 4.016 2.07 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 50 6.694 0.48 6.694 3.45 8.033 41.57 2.678 41.64

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Medium 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 30 8.320 4.016 0.29 8.320 4.016 2.07 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 50 6.694 0.48 6.694 3.45 8.033 41.57 2.678 41.64

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 15 8.320 2.008 0.14 8.320 2.008 1.04 9.985 2.410 12.47 3.328 0.803 12.49

Medium 5 5.172 0.416 0.03 9.051 0.728 0.35 5.172 0.416 2.20 1.293 0.104 1.55 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 5 0.416 0.03 0.728 0.35 0.416 2.20 0.104 1.55 35 4.686 0.33 4.686 2.42 5.623 29.10 1.874 29.15

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 15 8.320 2.008 0.14 8.320 2.008 1.04 9.985 2.410 12.47 3.328 0.803 12.49

Medium 5 5.172 0.416 0.03 9.051 0.728 0.35 5.172 0.416 2.20 1.293 0.104 1.55 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 5 0.416 0.03 0.728 0.35 0.416 2.20 0.104 1.55 35 4.686 0.33 4.686 2.42 5.623 29.10 1.874 29.15

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 15 8.320 2.008 0.14 8.320 2.008 1.04 9.985 2.410 12.47 3.328 0.803 12.49

Medium 5 5.172 0.416 0.03 9.051 0.728 0.35 5.172 0.416 2.20 1.293 0.104 1.55 20 8.320 2.678 0.19 8.320 2.678 1.38 9.985 3.213 16.63 3.328 1.071 16.66

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 8.320 8.320 9.985 3.328

Total 5 0.416 0.03 0.728 0.35 0.416 2.20 0.104 1.55 35 4.686 0.33 4.686 2.42 5.623 29.10 1.874 29.15

2024

2025

2026

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4501
Table 4.5.2 

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic- P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 7.9 1.339 0.169 0.095 1.339 0.169 0.691 2.678 0.339 0.786 1.607 0.203 8.315 0.536 0.068 8.328 2.142 0.271 16.643 4.820 0.610 17.429

2011 15.7 1.339 0.085 0.095 1.339 0.085 0.691 2.678 0.171 0.786 1.607 0.102 8.315 0.536 0.034 8.328 2.142 0.136 16.643 4.820 0.307 17.429

2012 23.6 2.678 0.113 0.191 2.678 0.113 1.381 5.355 0.227 1.572 3.213 0.136 16.630 1.071 0.045 16.656 4.284 0.182 33.286 9.639 0.408 34.858

2013 39.4 4.016 0.102 0.286 4.016 0.102 2.072 8.033 0.204 2.358 4.820 0.122 24.945 1.607 0.041 24.984 6.426 0.163 49.929 14.459 0.367 52.287

2014 44.4 4.016 0.090 0.286 4.016 0.090 2.072 8.033 0.181 2.358 4.820 0.109 24.945 1.607 0.036 24.984 6.426 0.145 49.929 14.459 0.326 52.287

2015 55.3 6.694 0.121 0.476 6.694 0.121 3.454 13.388 0.242 3.930 8.033 0.145 41.574 2.678 0.048 41.641 10.710 0.194 83.215 24.098 0.436 87.145

2016 59.5 6.694 0.113 0.476 6.694 0.113 3.454 13.388 0.225 3.930 8.033 0.135 41.574 2.678 0.045 41.641 10.710 0.180 83.215 24.098 0.405 87.145

2017 74.5 10.457 0.140 0.744 10.769 0.145 5.534 21.226 0.285 6.278 12.465 0.167 64.558 4.120 0.055 64.009 16.585 0.223 128.567 37.811 0.508 134.845

2018 76.1 10.457 0.137 0.744 10.769 0.142 5.534 21.226 0.279 6.278 12.465 0.164 64.558 4.120 0.054 64.009 16.585 0.218 128.567 37.811 0.497 134.845

2019 102.5 14.889 0.145 1.060 15.513 0.151 7.959 30.403 0.297 9.019 17.701 0.173 91.699 5.831 0.057 90.541 23.532 0.230 182.241 53.934 0.526 191.259

2020 103.5 14.889 0.144 1.060 15.513 0.150 7.959 30.403 0.294 9.019 17.701 0.171 91.699 5.831 0.056 90.541 23.532 0.227 182.241 53.934 0.521 191.259

2021 97.9 14.889 0.152 1.060 15.513 0.158 7.959 30.403 0.311 9.019 17.701 0.181 91.699 5.831 0.060 90.541 23.532 0.240 182.241 53.934 0.551 191.259

2022 93.1 14.889 0.160 1.060 15.513 0.167 7.959 30.403 0.327 9.019 17.701 0.190 91.699 5.831 0.063 90.541 23.532 0.253 182.241 53.934 0.579 191.259

2023 85.6 14.889 0.174 1.060 15.513 0.181 7.959 30.403 0.355 9.019 17.701 0.207 91.699 5.831 0.068 90.541 23.532 0.275 182.241 53.934 0.630 191.259

2024 79.2 14.889 0.188 1.060 15.513 0.196 7.959 30.403 0.384 9.019 17.701 0.223 91.699 5.831 0.074 90.541 23.532 0.297 182.241 53.934 0.681 191.259

2025 67.5 13.550 0.201 0.965 14.175 0.210 7.268 27.725 0.411 8.233 16.094 0.238 83.385 5.295 0.078 82.213 21.389 0.317 165.597 49.115 0.728 173.830

2026 59.0 13.550 0.230 0.965 14.175 0.240 7.268 27.725 0.470 8.233 16.094 0.273 83.385 5.295 0.090 82.213 21.389 0.363 165.597 49.115 0.832 173.830

2027 49.9 12.212 0.245 0.869 12.836 0.257 6.577 25.048 0.502 7.447 14.488 0.290 75.070 4.760 0.095 73.885 19.247 0.386 148.954 44.295 0.888 156.401

2028 42.2 10.204 0.242 0.726 10.828 0.257 5.541 21.031 0.498 6.268 12.078 0.286 62.597 3.957 0.094 61.393 16.034 0.380 123.990 37.066 0.878 130.258

2029 37.0 10.204 0.276 0.726 10.828 0.293 5.541 21.031 0.568 6.268 12.078 0.326 62.597 3.957 0.107 61.393 16.034 0.433 123.990 37.066 1.002 130.258

2030 32.4 8.865 0.274 0.631 9.489 0.293 4.851 18.354 0.566 5.482 10.471 0.323 54.282 3.421 0.106 53.065 13.892 0.429 107.347 32.246 0.995 112.828

2031 28.5 8.865 0.311 0.572 9.489 0.333 4.144 18.354 0.644 4.716 10.471 0.367 49.889 3.421 0.120 49.969 13.892 0.487 99.858 32.246 1.131 104.574

2032 25.0 8.865 0.355 0.631 9.489 0.380 4.851 18.354 0.734 5.482 10.471 0.419 54.282 3.421 0.137 53.065 13.892 0.556 107.347 32.246 1.290 112.828

2033 21.9 8.865 0.405 0.631 9.489 0.433 4.851 18.354 0.838 5.482 10.471 0.478 54.282 3.421 0.156 53.065 13.892 0.634 107.347 32.246 1.472 112.828

2034 17.0 7.526 0.443 0.536 8.150 0.479 4.160 15.676 0.922 4.696 8.865 0.521 45.967 2.886 0.170 44.736 11.75 0.69 90.70 27.427 1.613 95.399

2035 14.9 7.526 0.505 0.536 8.150 0.547 4.160 15.676 1.052 4.696 8.865 0.595 45.967 2.886 0.194 44.736 11.75 0.79 90.70 27.427 1.841 95.399

2036 8.3 5.102 0.615 0.363 5.414 0.652 2.771 10.516 1.267 3.134 6.039 0.728 31.299 1.978 0.238 30.696 8.02 0.97 61.99 18.533 2.233 65.129

2037 7.3 5.102 0.699 0.363 5.414 0.742 2.771 10.516 1.440 3.134 6.039 0.827 31.299 1.978 0.271 30.696 8.02 1.10 61.99 18.533 2.539 65.129

2038 6.5 5.102 0.785 0.363 5.414 0.833 2.771 10.516 1.618 3.134 6.039 0.929 31.299 1.978 0.304 30.696 8.02 1.23 61.99 18.533 2.851 65.129

Total

 LOF 1375.6 262.561 19 274.731 140 537.292 159 311.827 1611 102.590 1590 414.417 3201 951.709 3360

Average LOF 7.502 0.191 1 7.849 0.200 4 15.351 0.391 5 8.909 0.227 46 2.931 0.075 45 11.840 0.301 91 27.192 0.692 96

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4502
Table 4.5.3

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 1 3 2.157 0.647 0.29 0.360 0.108 0.61

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 1 3 0.647 0.29 0.108 0.61

Shallow 1 13 2.157 2.804 1.27 0.360 0.467 2.63

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 1 13 2.804 1.27 0.467 2.63

Shallow 2 26 2.157 5.609 2.53 0.360 0.935 5.26

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 2 26 5.609 2.53 0.935 5.26

Shallow 3 39 2.157 8.413 3.80 0.360 1.402 7.90

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 3 39 8.413 3.80 1.402 7.90

Shallow 3 59 2.157 12.727 5.75 0.360 2.121 11.94

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 3 59 12.727 5.75 2.121 11.94

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 1 3 2.157 0.647 0.29 0.360 0.108 0.61

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 4 72 15.531 7.02 2.589 14.58

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 1 13 2.157 2.804 1.27 0.360 0.467 2.63

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 4 82 17.688 7.99 2.948 16.60

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 2 26 2.157 5.609 2.53 0.360 0.935 5.26

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 95 20.493 9.26 3.415 19.23

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 3 39 2.157 8.413 3.80 0.360 1.402 7.90

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 6 108 23.297 10.53 3.883 21.86

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 4 63 2.157 13.590 6.14 0.360 2.265 12.75

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 7 132 28.474 12.87 4.746 26.72

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 5 87 2.157 18.767 8.48 0.360 3.128 17.61

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 8 156 33.651 15.21 5.609 31.58

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 5 107 2.157 23.081 10.43 0.360 3.847 21.66

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 8 176 37.965 17.16 6.328 35.63

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 5 127 2.157 27.396 12.38 0.360 4.566 25.71

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 8 196 42.280 19.11 7.047 39.68

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 8 206 44.437 20.08 7.406 41.70

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 8 206 44.437 20.08 7.406 41.70

Shallow 3 69 2.157 14.884 6.73 0.360 2.481 13.97

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74 2024

2020

2021

2022

2023

2014

2015

2018

2019

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4503
Table 4.5.3

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Platforms

452 5631

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 8 206 44.437 20.08 7.406 41.70

Shallow 2 46 2.157 9.923 4.48 0.360 1.654 9.31

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 7 183 39.475 17.84 6.579 37.05

Shallow 2 46 2.157 9.923 4.48 0.360 1.654 9.31

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 7 183 39.475 17.84 6.579 37.05

Shallow 1 23 2.157 4.961 2.24 0.360 0.827 4.66

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 6 160 34.514 15.60 5.752 32.39

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 137 29.553 13.36 4.925 27.74

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 137 29.553 13.36 4.925 27.74

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 137 29.553 13.36 4.925 27.74

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 137 29.553 13.36 4.925 27.74

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 137 29.553 13.36 4.925 27.74

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 5 137 2.157 29.553 13.36 0.360 4.925 27.74

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 5 137 29.553 13.36 4.925 27.74

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 4 114 2.157 24.591 11.11 0.360 4.099 23.08

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 4 114 24.591 11.11 4.099 23.08

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 4 114 2.157 24.591 11.11 0.360 4.099 23.08

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 4 114 24.591 11.11 4.099 23.08

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2 68 2.157 14.668 6.63 0.360 2.445 13.77

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 2 68 14.668 6.63 2.445 13.77

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2 68 2.157 14.668 6.63 0.360 2.445 13.77

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 2 68 14.668 6.63 2.445 13.77

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2 68 2.157 14.668 6.63 0.360 2.445 13.77

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total 2 68 14.668 6.63 2.445 13.77

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4503
Table 4.5.4

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Platforms - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.647 0.292 0.108 0.607 0.108 0.607 0.755 0.900

2010 7.9 2.804 0.355 1.267 0.467 0.059 2.632 0.467 0.059 2.632 3.272 0.414 3.899

2011 15.7 5.609 0.357 2.535 0.935 0.060 5.264 0.935 0.060 5.264 6.543 0.417 7.798

2012 23.6 8.413 0.356 3.802 1.402 0.059 7.895 1.402 0.059 7.895 9.815 0.416 11.697

2013 39.4 12.727 0.323 5.752 2.121 0.054 11.944 2.121 0.054 11.944 14.848 0.377 17.696

2014 44.4 15.531 0.350 7.019 2.589 0.058 14.576 2.589 0.058 14.576 18.120 0.408 21.595

2015 55.3 17.688 0.320 7.994 2.948 0.053 16.601 2.948 0.053 16.601 20.637 0.373 24.594

2016 59.5 20.493 0.344 9.261 3.415 0.057 19.232 3.415 0.057 19.232 23.908 0.402 28.493

2017 74.5 23.297 0.313 10.528 3.883 0.052 21.864 3.883 0.052 21.864 27.180 0.365 32.393

2018 76.1 28.474 0.374 12.868 4.746 0.062 26.723 4.746 0.062 26.723 33.220 0.437 39.591

2019 102.5 33.651 0.328 15.208 5.609 0.055 31.581 5.609 0.055 31.581 39.260 0.383 46.789

2020 103.5 37.965 0.367 17.157 6.328 0.061 35.630 6.328 0.061 35.630 44.293 0.428 52.788

2021 97.9 42.280 0.432 19.107 7.047 0.072 39.679 7.047 0.072 39.679 49.326 0.504 58.786

2022 93.1 44.437 0.477 20.082 7.406 0.080 41.704 7.406 0.080 41.704 51.843 0.557 61.786

2023 85.6 44.437 0.519 20.082 7.406 0.087 41.704 7.406 0.087 41.704 51.843 0.606 61.786

2024 79.2 44.437 0.561 20.082 7.406 0.094 41.704 7.406 0.094 41.704 51.843 0.655 61.786

2025 67.5 39.475 0.585 17.840 6.579 0.097 37.048 6.579 0.097 37.048 46.055 0.682 54.887

2026 59.0 39.475 0.669 17.840 6.579 0.112 37.048 6.579 0.112 37.048 46.055 0.781 54.887

2027 49.9 34.514 0.692 15.598 5.752 0.115 32.391 5.752 0.115 32.391 40.266 0.807 47.989

2028 42.2 29.553 0.700 13.355 4.925 0.117 27.735 4.925 0.117 27.735 34.478 0.817 41.090

2029 37.0 29.553 0.799 13.355 4.925 0.133 27.735 4.925 0.133 27.735 34.478 0.932 41.090

2030 32.4 29.553 0.912 13.355 4.925 0.152 27.735 4.925 0.152 27.735 34.478 1.064 41.090

2031 28.5 29.553 1.037 13.355 4.925 0.173 27.735 4.925 0.173 27.735 34.478 1.210 41.090

2032 25.0 29.553 1.182 13.355 4.925 0.197 27.735 4.925 0.197 27.735 34.478 1.379 41.090

2033 21.9 29.553 1.349 13.355 4.925 0.225 27.735 4.925 0.225 27.735 34.478 1.574 41.090

2034 17.0 24.591 1.447 11.113 4.099 0.241 23.079 28.69 1.69 34.19 28.690 1.688 34.192

2035 14.9 24.591 1.650 11.113 4.099 0.275 23.079 28.69 1.93 34.19 28.690 1.925 34.192

2036 8.3 14.668 1.767 6.629 2.445 0.295 13.766 17.11 2.06 20.40 17.113 2.062 20.395

2037 7.3 14.668 2.009 6.629 2.445 0.335 13.766 17.11 2.34 20.40 17.113 2.344 20.395

2038 6.5 14.668 2.257 6.629 2.445 0.376 13.766 17.11 2.63 20.40 17.113 2.633 20.395

Total

 LOF 1375.6 766.860 347 127.810 720 220.998 762 894.670 1066

Average LOF 21.910 0.557 10 3.652 0.093 21 6.314 0.161 22 25.562 0.650 30

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4504
Table 4.5.5

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 3 0.147 0.044 0.02 1.026 0.308 1.63 0.440 0.132 9.02 0.293 0.088 17.59

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 3 0.044 0.02 0.308 1.63 0.132 9.02 0.088 17.59

Shallow 13 0.147 0.191 0.10 1.026 1.334 7.06 0.440 0.572 39.08 0.293 0.381 76.23

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 13 0.191 0.10 1.334 7.06 0.572 39.08 0.381 76.23

Shallow 26 0.147 0.381 0.20 1.026 2.668 14.12 0.440 1.143 78.15 0.293 0.762 152.45

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 26 0.381 0.20 2.668 14.12 1.143 78.15 0.762 152.45

Shallow 39 0.147 0.572 0.30 1.026 4.002 21.18 0.440 1.715 117.23 0.293 1.143 228.68

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 39 0.572 0.30 4.002 21.18 1.715 117.23 1.143 228.68

Shallow 59 0.147 0.865 0.45 1.026 6.054 32.04 0.440 2.595 177.34 0.293 1.730 345.95

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 59 0.865 0.45 6.054 32.04 2.595 177.34 1.730 345.95

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 3 0.147 0.044 0.02 1.026 0.308 1.63 0.440 0.132 9.02 0.293 0.088 17.59

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 72 1.055 0.55 7.388 39.10 3.166 216.42 2.111 422.18

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 13 0.147 0.191 0.10 1.026 1.334 7.06 0.440 0.572 39.08 0.293 0.381 76.23

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 82 1.202 0.62 8.414 44.53 3.606 246.47 2.404 480.82

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 26 0.147 0.381 0.20 1.026 2.668 14.12 0.440 1.143 78.15 0.293 0.762 152.45

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 95 1.393 0.72 9.748 51.59 4.178 285.55 2.785 557.04

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 39 0.147 0.572 0.30 1.026 4.002 21.18 0.440 1.715 117.23 0.293 1.143 228.68

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 108 1.583 0.82 11.082 58.65 4.750 324.62 3.166 633.27

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 63 0.147 0.924 0.48 1.026 6.465 34.21 0.440 2.771 189.36 0.293 1.847 369.41

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 132 1.935 1.01 13.545 71.68 5.805 396.76 3.870 774.00

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 87 0.147 1.275 0.66 1.026 8.927 47.24 0.440 3.826 261.50 0.293 2.551 510.14

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 156 2.287 1.19 16.008 84.71 6.860 468.90 4.574 914.73

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 107 0.147 1.569 0.81 1.026 10.980 58.11 0.440 4.706 321.62 0.293 3.137 627.41

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 176 2.580 1.34 18.060 95.58 7.740 529.02 5.160 1032.00

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 127 0.147 1.862 0.97 1.026 13.032 68.97 0.440 5.585 381.73 0.293 3.723 744.68

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 196 2.873 1.49 20.112 106.44 8.620 589.13 5.746 1149.27

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4505
Table 4.5.5

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Spills

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 206 3.020 1.57 21.138 111.87 9.059 619.19 6.040 1207.91

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 206 3.020 1.57 21.138 111.87 9.059 619.19 6.040 1207.91

Shallow 69 0.147 1.011 0.53 1.026 7.080 37.47 0.440 3.034 207.40 0.293 2.023 404.59

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 206 3.020 1.57 21.138 111.87 9.059 619.19 6.040 1207.91

Shallow 46 0.147 0.674 0.35 1.026 4.720 24.98 0.440 2.023 138.27 0.293 1.349 269.73

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 183 2.683 1.39 18.778 99.38 8.048 550.06 5.365 1073.04

Shallow 46 0.147 0.674 0.35 1.026 4.720 24.98 0.440 2.023 138.27 0.293 1.349 269.73

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 183 2.683 1.39 18.778 99.38 8.048 550.06 5.365 1073.04

Shallow 23 0.147 0.337 0.18 1.026 2.360 12.49 0.440 1.011 69.13 0.293 0.674 134.86

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 160 2.345 1.22 16.418 86.89 7.036 480.92 4.691 938.18

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 137 2.008 1.04 14.058 74.40 6.025 411.79 4.017 803.32

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 137 2.008 1.04 14.058 74.40 6.025 411.79 4.017 803.32

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 137 2.008 1.04 14.058 74.40 6.025 411.79 4.017 803.32

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 137 2.008 1.04 14.058 74.40 6.025 411.79 4.017 803.32

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 137 2.008 1.04 14.058 74.40 6.025 411.79 4.017 803.32

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 137 0.147 2.008 1.04 1.026 14.058 74.40 0.440 6.025 411.79 0.293 4.017 803.32

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 137 2.008 1.04 14.058 74.40 6.025 411.79 4.017 803.32

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 114 0.147 1.671 0.87 1.026 11.698 61.91 0.440 5.013 342.66 0.293 3.342 668.45

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 114 1.671 0.87 11.698 61.91 5.013 342.66 3.342 668.45

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 114 0.147 1.671 0.87 1.026 11.698 61.91 0.440 5.013 342.66 0.293 3.342 668.45

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 114 1.671 0.87 11.698 61.91 5.013 342.66 3.342 668.45

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 68 0.147 0.997 0.52 1.026 6.978 36.93 0.440 2.990 204.39 0.293 1.994 398.73

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 68 0.997 0.52 6.978 36.93 2.990 204.39 1.994 398.73

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 68 0.147 0.997 0.52 1.026 6.978 36.93 0.440 2.990 204.39 0.293 1.994 398.73

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 68 0.997 0.52 6.978 36.93 2.990 204.39 1.994 398.73

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 68 0.147 0.997 0.52 1.026 6.978 36.93 0.440 2.990 204.39 0.293 1.994 398.73

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total 68 0.997 0.52 6.978 36.93 2.990 204.39 1.994 398.73

2036

2037

2038

2022

2023

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

2026

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4505
Table 4.5.6

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.044 0.023 0.132 1.629 0.220 26.608 0.396 28.260

2010 7.9 0.191 0.024 0.099 0.572 0.072 7.060 0.953 0.121 115.302 1.715 0.217 122.461

2011 15.7 0.381 0.024 0.198 1.143 0.073 14.119 1.906 0.121 230.605 3.430 0.218 244.922

2012 23.6 0.572 0.024 0.297 1.715 0.073 21.179 2.859 0.121 345.907 5.145 0.218 367.382

2013 39.4 0.865 0.022 0.449 2.595 0.066 32.039 4.324 0.110 523.295 7.784 0.198 555.784

2014 44.4 1.055 0.024 0.548 3.166 0.071 39.099 5.277 0.119 638.597 9.499 0.214 678.245

2015 55.3 1.202 0.022 0.624 3.606 0.065 44.529 6.010 0.109 727.291 10.818 0.196 772.445

2016 59.5 1.393 0.023 0.723 4.178 0.070 51.589 6.963 0.117 842.594 12.534 0.211 894.906

2017 74.5 1.583 0.021 0.822 4.750 0.064 58.648 7.916 0.106 957.896 14.249 0.191 #######

2018 76.1 1.935 0.025 1.005 5.805 0.076 71.681 9.675 0.127 ####### 17.415 0.229 #######

2019 102.5 2.287 0.022 1.188 6.860 0.067 84.714 11.434 0.112 ####### 20.581 0.201 #######

2020 103.5 2.580 0.025 1.340 7.740 0.075 95.575 12.900 0.125 ####### 23.220 0.224 #######

2021 97.9 2.873 0.029 1.492 8.620 0.088 ###### 14.366 0.147 ####### 25.859 0.264 #######

2022 93.1 3.020 0.032 1.568 9.059 0.097 ###### 15.099 0.162 ####### 27.178 0.292 #######

2023 85.6 3.020 0.035 1.568 9.059 0.106 ###### 15.099 0.176 ####### 27.178 0.317 #######

2024 79.2 3.020 0.038 1.568 9.059 0.114 ###### 15.099 0.191 ####### 27.178 0.343 #######

2025 67.5 2.683 0.040 1.393 8.048 0.119 99.376 13.413 0.199 ####### 24.143 0.358 #######

2026 59.0 2.683 0.045 1.393 8.048 0.136 99.376 13.413 0.227 ####### 24.143 0.409 #######

2027 49.9 2.345 0.047 1.218 7.036 0.141 86.886 11.727 0.235 ####### 21.109 0.423 #######

2028 42.2 2.008 0.048 1.043 6.025 0.143 74.397 10.041 0.238 ####### 18.075 0.428 #######

2029 37.0 2.008 0.054 1.043 6.025 0.163 74.397 10.041 0.271 ####### 18.075 0.489 #######

2030 32.4 2.008 0.062 1.043 6.025 0.186 74.397 10.041 0.310 ####### 18.075 0.558 #######

2031 28.5 2.008 0.070 1.043 6.025 0.211 74.397 10.041 0.352 ####### 18.075 0.634 #######

2032 25.0 2.008 0.080 1.043 6.025 0.241 74.397 10.041 0.402 ####### 18.075 0.723 #######

2033 21.9 2.008 0.092 1.043 6.025 0.275 74.397 10.041 0.459 ####### 18.075 0.825 #######

2034 17.0 1.671 0.098 0.868 5.013 0.295 61.907 8.356 0.492 ####### 15.040 0.885 #######

2035 14.9 1.671 0.112 0.868 5.013 0.336 61.907 8.356 0.561 ####### 15.040 1.009 #######

2036 8.3 0.997 0.120 0.518 2.990 0.360 36.927 4.984 0.600 603.120 8.971 1.081 640.564

2037 7.3 0.997 0.137 0.518 2.990 0.410 36.927 4.984 0.683 603.120 8.971 1.229 640.564

2038 6.5 0.997 0.153 0.518 2.990 0.460 36.927 4.984 0.767 603.120 8.971 1.380 640.564

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4506
Table 4.5.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale All non Arctic - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2 2.262 0.452 0.23 15.824 3.165 16.75 6.799 1.360 92.94 3.936 0.787 157.45

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 2 0.452 0.23 3.165 16.75 1.360 92.94 0.787 157.45

Shallow 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Medium 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 2 0.452 0.23 3.165 16.75 1.360 92.94 0.787 157.45

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Medium 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total 2 0.452 0.23 3.165 16.75 1.360 92.94 0.787 157.45

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2 2.262 0.452 0.23 15.824 3.165 16.75 6.799 1.360 92.94 3.936 0.787 157.45

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 3 0.678 0.35 4.747 25.12 2.040 139.41 1.181 236.18

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 2 0.452 0.23 3.165 16.75 1.360 92.94 0.787 157.45

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2024

2025

2026

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2027

2028

2029

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4507
Table 4.5.7

Occurrence Spill Risks - Sale All non Arctic - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N WellsExpected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4507
Table 4.5.8

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2005 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2006 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2007 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.959 267.381

2008 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.959 267.381

2009 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2010 7.9 0.452 0.057 0.235 1.360 0.172 16.749 2.147 0.272 250.397 3.959 0.501 267.381

2011 15.7

2012 23.6 0.678 0.029 0.352 2.040 0.086 25.123 3.221 0.136 375.596 5.939 0.252 401.071

2013 39.4 0.452 0.011 0.235 1.360 0.035 16.749 2.147 0.054 250.397 3.959 0.100 267.381

2014 44.4

2015 55.3 0.226 0.004 0.117 0.680 0.012 8.374 1.074 0.019 125.199 1.980 0.036 133.690

2016 59.5

2017 74.5 0.226 0.003 0.117 0.680 0.009 8.374 1.074 0.014 125.199 1.980 0.027 133.690

2018 76.1 0.226 0.003 0.117 0.680 0.009 8.374 1.074 0.014 125.199 1.980 0.026 133.690

2019 102.5

2020 103.5

2021 97.9

2022 93.1

2023 85.6

2024 79.2

2025 67.5

2026 59.0

2027 49.9

2028 42.2

2029 37.0

2030 32.4

2031 28.5

2032 25.0

2033 21.9

2034 17.0

2035 14.9

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4508
Table 4.5.9

Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All non Arctic - Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 2 0.692 0.138 0.07 4.833 0.967 5.12 2.076 0.415 28.38 2.076 0.415 83.04

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 2 0.138 0.07 0.967 5.12 0.415 28.38 0.415 83.04

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 2 0.692 0.138 0.07 4.833 0.967 5.12 2.076 0.415 28.38 2.076 0.415 83.04

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 2 0.138 0.07 0.967 5.12 0.415 28.38 0.415 83.04

Shallow 2 0.692 0.138 0.07 4.833 0.967 5.12 2.076 0.415 28.38 2.076 0.415 83.04

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 2 0.138 0.07 0.967 5.12 0.415 28.38 0.415 83.04

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 2 0.692 0.138 0.07 4.833 0.967 5.12 2.076 0.415 28.38 2.076 0.415 83.04

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 2 0.138 0.07 0.967 5.12 0.415 28.38 0.415 83.04

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 3 0.692 0.208 0.11 4.833 1.450 7.67 2.076 0.623 42.57 2.076 0.623 124.56

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 3 0.208 0.11 1.450 7.67 0.623 42.57 0.623 124.56

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 4 0.692 0.277 0.14 4.833 1.933 10.23 2.076 0.830 56.76 2.076 0.830 166.08

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 4 0.277 0.14 1.933 10.23 0.830 56.76 0.830 166.08

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 2 0.692 0.138 0.07 4.833 0.967 5.12 2.076 0.415 28.38 2.076 0.415 83.04

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total 2 0.138 0.07 0.967 5.12 0.415 28.38 0.415 83.04

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

2026

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4509
Table 4.5.9

Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All non Arctic - Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4509
Table 4.5.10

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.138 0.072 0.415 5.116 0.830 111.421 1.384 116.608

2007

2008 0.138 0.072 0.415 5.116 0.830 111.421 1.384 116.608

2009 0.138 0.072 0.415 5.116 0.830 111.421 1.384 116.608

2010 7.9 0.138 0.018 0.072 0.415 0.053 5.116 0.830 0.105 111.421 1.384 0.175 116.608

2011 15.7

2012 23.6

2013 39.4 0.208 0.005 0.108 0.623 0.016 7.674 1.246 0.032 167.131 2.076 0.053 174.912

2014 44.4 0.277 0.006 0.144 0.830 0.019 10.232 1.661 0.037 222.841 2.768 0.062 233.217

2015 55.3 0.138 0.003 0.072 0.415 0.008 5.116 0.830 0.015 111.421 1.384 0.025 116.608

2016 59.5

2017 74.5

2018 76.1

2019 102.5

2020 103.5

2021 97.9

2022 93.1

2023 85.6

2024 79.2

2025 67.5

2026 59.0

2027 49.9

2028 42.2

2029 37.0

2030 32.4

2031 28.5

2032 25.0

2033 21.9

2034 17.0

2035 14.9

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4510
Table 4.5.11

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2005 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2006 0.365 0.189 1.095 13.490 1.904 236.619 2.999 250.109 3.364 250.299

2007 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.507 267.146 3.959 267.381

2008 0.591 0.307 1.775 21.864 2.978 361.818 4.753 383.682 5.343 383.989

2009 0.409 0.212 1.227 15.119 2.124 263.227 3.351 278.347 3.759 278.559

2010 7.9 0.781 0.099 0.406 2.347 0.297 28.924 3.930 0.498 477.120 6.277 0.795 506.044 7.058 0.893 506.450

2011 15.7 0.381 0.024 0.198 1.143 0.073 14.119 1.906 0.121 230.605 3.049 0.194 244.724 3.430 0.218 244.922

2012 23.6 1.250 0.053 0.649 3.755 0.159 46.302 6.079 0.258 721.503 9.834 0.417 767.805 11.084 0.470 768.454

2013 39.4 1.525 0.039 0.792 4.577 0.116 56.462 7.717 0.196 940.823 12.294 0.312 997.285 13.819 0.351 998.077

2014 44.4 1.332 0.030 0.692 3.997 0.090 49.331 6.938 0.156 861.439 10.935 0.246 910.769 12.267 0.276 911.461

2015 55.3 1.567 0.028 0.814 4.701 0.085 58.019 7.914 0.143 963.911 12.615 0.228 ####### 14.182 0.256 #######

2016 59.5 1.393 0.023 0.723 4.178 0.070 51.589 6.963 0.117 842.594 11.141 0.187 894.183 12.534 0.211 894.906

2017 74.5 1.809 0.024 0.940 5.429 0.073 67.023 8.989 0.121 ####### 14.419 0.194 ####### 16.228 0.218 #######

2018 76.1 2.161 0.028 1.123 6.485 0.085 80.056 10.749 0.141 ####### 17.233 0.226 ####### 19.395 0.255 #######

2019 102.5 2.287 0.022 1.188 6.860 0.067 84.714 11.434 0.112 ####### 18.295 0.178 ####### 20.581 0.201 #######

2020 103.5 2.580 0.025 1.340 7.740 0.075 95.575 12.900 0.125 ####### 20.640 0.199 ####### 23.220 0.224 #######

2021 97.9 2.873 0.029 1.492 8.620 0.088 ###### 14.366 0.147 ####### 22.985 0.235 ####### 25.859 0.264 #######

2022 93.1 3.020 0.032 1.568 9.059 0.097 ###### 15.099 0.162 ####### 24.158 0.259 ####### 27.178 0.292 #######

2023 85.6 3.020 0.035 1.568 9.059 0.106 ###### 15.099 0.176 ####### 24.158 0.282 ####### 27.178 0.317 #######

2024 79.2 3.020 0.038 1.568 9.059 0.114 ###### 15.099 0.191 ####### 24.158 0.305 ####### 27.178 0.343 #######

2025 67.5 2.683 0.040 1.393 8.048 0.119 99.376 13.413 0.199 ####### 21.461 0.318 ####### 24.143 0.358 #######

2026 59.0 2.683 0.045 1.393 8.048 0.136 99.376 13.413 0.227 ####### 21.461 0.364 ####### 24.143 0.409 #######

2027 49.9 2.345 0.047 1.218 7.036 0.141 86.886 11.727 0.235 ####### 18.764 0.376 ####### 21.109 0.423 #######

2028 42.2 2.008 0.048 1.043 6.025 0.143 74.397 10.041 0.238 ####### 16.066 0.381 ####### 18.075 0.428 #######

2029 37.0 2.008 0.054 1.043 6.025 0.163 74.397 10.041 0.271 ####### 16.066 0.434 ####### 18.075 0.489 #######

2030 32.4 2.008 0.062 1.043 6.025 0.186 74.397 10.041 0.310 ####### 16.066 0.496 ####### 18.075 0.558 #######

2031 28.5 2.008 0.070 1.043 6.025 0.211 74.397 10.041 0.352 ####### 16.066 0.564 ####### 18.075 0.634 #######

2032 25.0 2.008 0.080 1.043 6.025 0.241 74.397 10.041 0.402 ####### 16.066 0.643 ####### 18.075 0.723 #######

2033 21.9 2.008 0.092 1.043 6.025 0.275 74.397 10.041 0.459 ####### 16.066 0.734 ####### 18.075 0.825 #######

2034 17.0 1.671 0.098 0.868 5.013 0.295 61.907 8.356 0.492 ####### 13.37 0.79 1073.02 15.040 0.885 #######

2035 14.9 1.671 0.112 0.868 5.013 0.336 61.907 8.356 0.561 ####### 13.37 0.90 1073.02 15.040 1.009 #######

2036 8.3 0.997 0.120 0.518 2.990 0.360 36.927 4.984 0.600 603.120 7.97 0.96 640.05 8.971 1.081 640.564

2037 7.3 0.997 0.137 0.518 2.990 0.410 36.927 4.984 0.683 603.120 7.97 1.09 640.05 8.971 1.229 640.564

2038 6.5 0.997 0.153 0.518 2.990 0.460 36.927 4.984 0.767 603.120 7.97 1.23 640.05 8.971 1.380 640.564

Total

 LOF 1375.6 57.360 30 172.107 2125 286.948 34731 459.054 36856 516.415 36886

Average LOF 1.639 0.042 1 4.917 0.125 61 8.199 0.209 992 13.116 0.334 1053 14.755 0.375 1054

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4511
Table 4.5.12

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells

Total 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells

Total 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells 0.138 0.072 0.415 5.116 0.830 111.421 1.384 116.608

Total 0.365 0.189 1.095 13.490 1.904 236.619 3.364 250.299

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.959 267.381

Development Wells

Total 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.959 267.381

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.959 267.381

Development Wells 0.138 0.072 0.415 5.116 0.830 111.421 1.384 116.608

Total 0.591 0.307 1.775 21.864 2.978 361.818 5.343 383.989

Pipeline

Platforms 0.647 0.292 0.054 0.304 0.054 0.304 0.755 0.900

Production Wells 0.044 0.023 0.132 1.629 0.220 26.608 0.396 28.260

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells 0.138 0.072 0.415 5.116 0.830 111.421 1.384 116.608

Total 1.056 0.505 1.281 15.423 2.178 263.531 4.514 279.459

Pipeline 2.678 0.339 0.786 1.607 0.203 8.315 0.536 0.068 8.328 4.820 0.610 17.429

Platforms 2.804 0.355 1.267 0.234 0.030 1.316 0.234 0.030 1.316 3.272 0.414 3.899

Production Wells 0.191 0.024 0.099 0.572 0.072 7.060 0.953 0.121 115.302 1.715 0.217 122.461

Exploration Wells 0.452 0.057 0.235 1.360 0.172 16.749 2.147 0.272 250.397 3.959 0.501 267.381

Development Wells 0.138 0.018 0.072 0.415 0.053 5.116 0.830 0.105 111.421 1.384 0.175 116.608

Total 6.263 0.793 2.459 4.187 0.530 38.555 4.700 0.595 486.764 15.150 1.918 527.778

Pipeline 2.678 0.171 0.786 1.607 0.102 8.315 0.536 0.034 8.328 4.820 0.307 17.429

Platforms 5.609 0.357 2.535 0.467 0.030 2.632 0.467 0.030 2.632 6.543 0.417 7.798

Production Wells 0.381 0.024 0.198 1.143 0.073 14.119 1.906 0.121 230.605 3.430 0.218 244.922

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.667 0.552 3.519 3.217 0.205 25.066 2.909 0.185 241.565 14.793 0.942 270.149

Pipeline 5.355 0.227 1.572 3.213 0.136 16.630 1.071 0.045 16.656 9.639 0.408 34.858

Platforms 8.413 0.356 3.802 0.701 0.030 3.948 0.701 0.030 3.948 9.815 0.416 11.697

Production Wells 0.572 0.024 0.297 1.715 0.073 21.179 2.859 0.121 345.907 5.145 0.218 367.382

Exploration Wells 0.678 0.029 0.352 2.040 0.086 25.123 3.221 0.136 375.596 5.939 0.252 401.071

Development Wells

Total 15.018 0.636 6.023 7.669 0.325 66.879 7.851 0.333 742.107 30.538 1.294 815.009

Pipeline 8.033 0.204 2.358 4.820 0.122 24.945 1.607 0.041 24.984 14.459 0.367 52.287

Platforms 12.727 0.323 5.752 1.061 0.027 5.972 1.061 0.027 5.972 14.848 0.377 17.696

Production Wells 0.865 0.022 0.449 2.595 0.066 32.039 4.324 0.110 523.295 7.784 0.198 555.784

Exploration Wells 0.452 0.011 0.235 1.360 0.035 16.749 2.147 0.054 250.397 3.959 0.100 267.381

Development Wells 0.208 0.005 0.108 0.623 0.016 7.674 1.246 0.032 167.131 2.076 0.053 174.912

Total 22.284 0.566 8.902 10.457 0.265 87.379 10.384 0.264 971.780 43.126 1.095 1068.060

Pipeline 8.033 0.181 2.358 4.820 0.109 24.945 1.607 0.036 24.984 14.459 0.326 52.287

Platforms 15.531 0.350 7.019 1.294 0.029 7.288 1.294 0.029 7.288 18.120 0.408 21.595

Production Wells 1.055 0.024 0.548 3.166 0.071 39.099 5.277 0.119 638.597 9.499 0.214 678.245

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.277 0.006 0.144 0.830 0.019 10.232 1.661 0.037 222.841 2.768 0.062 233.217

Total 24.896 0.561 10.069 10.111 0.228 81.563 9.839 0.222 893.711 44.846 1.010 985.343

Pipeline 13.388 0.242 3.930 8.033 0.145 41.574 2.678 0.048 41.641 24.098 0.436 87.145

Platforms 17.688 0.320 7.994 1.474 0.027 8.300 1.474 0.027 8.300 20.637 0.373 24.594

Production Wells 1.202 0.022 0.624 3.606 0.065 44.529 6.010 0.109 727.291 10.818 0.196 772.445

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.004 0.117 0.680 0.012 8.374 1.074 0.019 125.199 1.980 0.036 133.690

Development Wells 0.138 0.003 0.072 0.415 0.008 5.116 0.830 0.015 111.421 1.384 0.025 116.608

Total 32.643 0.590 12.738 14.208 0.257 107.894 12.066 0.218 1013.852 58.916 1.065 1134.484

Pipeline 13.388 0.225 3.930 8.033 0.135 41.574 2.678 0.045 41.641 24.098 0.405 87.145

Platforms 20.493 0.344 9.261 1.708 0.029 9.616 1.708 0.029 9.616 23.908 0.402 28.493

Production Wells 1.393 0.023 0.723 4.178 0.070 51.589 6.963 0.117 842.594 12.534 0.211 894.906

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 35.273 0.593 13.915 13.918 0.234 102.779 11.348 0.191 893.851 60.540 1.017 1010.545

Pipeline 21.226 0.285 6.278 12.465 0.167 64.558 4.120 0.055 64.009 37.811 0.508 134.845

Platforms 23.297 0.313 10.528 1.941 0.026 10.932 1.941 0.026 10.932 27.180 0.365 32.393

Production Wells 1.583 0.021 0.822 4.750 0.064 58.648 7.916 0.106 957.896 14.249 0.191 1017.367

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.003 0.117 0.680 0.009 8.374 1.074 0.014 125.199 1.980 0.027 133.690

Development Wells

Total 46.332 0.622 17.746 19.836 0.266 142.513 15.051 0.202 1158.036 81.219 1.090 1318.295

Pipeline 21.226 0.279 6.278 12.465 0.164 64.558 4.120 0.054 64.009 37.811 0.497 134.845

Platforms 28.474 0.374 12.868 2.373 0.031 13.361 2.373 0.031 13.361 33.220 0.437 39.591

Production Wells 1.935 0.025 1.005 5.805 0.076 71.681 9.675 0.127 1170.762 17.415 0.229 1243.448

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.003 0.117 0.680 0.009 8.374 1.074 0.014 125.199 1.980 0.026 133.690

Development Wells

Total 51.861 0.681 20.268 21.323 0.280 157.975 17.242 0.227 1373.331 90.425 1.188 1551.575

Pipeline 30.403 0.297 9.019 17.701 0.173 91.699 5.831 0.057 90.541 53.934 0.526 191.259

Platforms 33.651 0.328 15.208 2.804 0.027 15.791 2.804 0.027 15.791 39.260 0.383 46.789

Production Wells 2.287 0.022 1.188 6.860 0.067 84.714 11.434 0.112 1383.628 20.581 0.201 1469.530

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 66.341 0.647 25.414 27.365 0.267 192.204 20.069 0.196 1489.960 113.775 1.110 1707.578

Pipeline 30.403 0.294 9.019 17.701 0.171 91.699 5.831 0.056 90.541 53.934 0.521 191.259

Platforms 37.965 0.367 17.157 3.164 0.031 17.815 3.164 0.031 17.815 44.293 0.428 52.788

Production Wells 2.580 0.025 1.340 7.740 0.075 95.575 12.900 0.125 1561.016 23.220 0.224 1657.931

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.948 0.685 27.516 28.604 0.276 205.090 21.895 0.212 1669.372 121.447 1.173 1901.978

2019 102.5

2020 103.5

2017 74.5

2018 76.1

2016 59.5

2014 44.4

2015 55.3

2012 23.6

2013 39.4

2011

2010 7.9

15.7

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4512
Table 4.5.12

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 30.403 0.311 9.019 17.701 0.181 91.699 5.831 0.060 90.541 53.934 0.551 191.259

Platforms 42.280 0.432 19.107 3.523 0.036 19.840 3.523 0.036 19.840 49.326 0.504 58.786

Production Wells 2.873 0.029 1.492 8.620 0.088 106.436 14.366 0.147 1738.404 25.859 0.264 1846.332

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 75.556 0.772 29.618 29.843 0.305 217.975 23.720 0.242 1848.785 129.119 1.319 2096.378

Pipeline 30.403 0.327 9.019 17.701 0.190 91.699 5.831 0.063 90.541 53.934 0.579 191.259

Platforms 44.437 0.477 20.082 3.703 0.040 20.852 3.703 0.040 20.852 51.843 0.557 61.786

Production Wells 3.020 0.032 1.568 9.059 0.097 111.866 15.099 0.162 1827.098 27.178 0.292 1940.533

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 77.859 0.836 30.669 30.463 0.327 224.418 24.633 0.265 1938.491 132.955 1.428 2193.578

Pipeline 30.403 0.355 9.019 17.701 0.207 91.699 5.831 0.068 90.541 53.934 0.630 191.259

Platforms 44.437 0.519 20.082 3.703 0.043 20.852 3.703 0.043 20.852 51.843 0.606 61.786

Production Wells 3.020 0.035 1.568 9.059 0.106 111.866 15.099 0.176 1827.098 27.178 0.317 1940.533

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 77.859 0.910 30.669 30.463 0.356 224.418 24.633 0.288 1938.491 132.955 1.553 2193.578

Pipeline 30.403 0.384 9.019 17.701 0.223 91.699 5.831 0.074 90.541 53.934 0.681 191.259

Platforms 44.437 0.561 20.082 3.703 0.047 20.852 3.703 0.047 20.852 51.843 0.655 61.786

Production Wells 3.020 0.038 1.568 9.059 0.114 111.866 15.099 0.191 1827.098 27.178 0.343 1940.533

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 77.859 0.983 30.669 30.463 0.385 224.418 24.633 0.311 1938.491 132.955 1.679 2193.578

Pipeline 27.725 0.411 8.233 16.094 0.238 83.385 5.295 0.078 82.213 49.115 0.728 173.830

Platforms 39.475 0.585 17.840 3.290 0.049 18.524 3.290 0.049 18.524 46.055 0.682 54.887

Production Wells 2.683 0.040 1.393 8.048 0.119 99.376 13.413 0.199 1623.102 24.143 0.358 1723.871

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 69.883 1.035 27.466 27.432 0.406 201.285 21.998 0.326 1723.838 119.313 1.768 1952.589

Pipeline 27.725 0.470 8.233 16.094 0.273 83.385 5.295 0.090 82.213 49.115 0.832 173.830

Platforms 39.475 0.669 17.840 3.290 0.056 18.524 3.290 0.056 18.524 46.055 0.781 54.887

Production Wells 2.683 0.045 1.393 8.048 0.136 99.376 13.413 0.227 1623.102 24.143 0.409 1723.871

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 69.883 1.184 27.466 27.432 0.465 201.285 21.998 0.373 1723.838 119.313 2.022 1952.589

Pipeline 25.048 0.502 7.447 14.488 0.290 75.070 4.760 0.095 73.885 44.295 0.888 156.401

Platforms 34.514 0.692 15.598 2.876 0.058 16.196 2.876 0.058 16.196 40.266 0.807 47.989

Production Wells 2.345 0.047 1.218 7.036 0.141 86.886 11.727 0.235 1419.105 21.109 0.423 1507.210

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 61.907 1.241 24.263 24.400 0.489 178.152 19.363 0.388 1509.186 105.670 2.118 1711.600

Pipeline 21.031 0.498 6.268 12.078 0.286 62.597 3.957 0.094 61.393 37.066 0.878 130.258

Platforms 29.553 0.700 13.355 2.463 0.058 13.868 2.463 0.058 13.868 34.478 0.817 41.090

Production Wells 2.008 0.048 1.043 6.025 0.143 74.397 10.041 0.238 1215.109 18.075 0.428 1290.549

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 52.592 1.246 20.666 20.565 0.487 150.861 16.461 0.390 1290.369 89.618 2.124 1461.897

Pipeline 21.031 0.568 6.268 12.078 0.326 62.597 3.957 0.107 61.393 37.066 1.002 130.258

Platforms 29.553 0.799 13.355 2.463 0.067 13.868 2.463 0.067 13.868 34.478 0.932 41.090

Production Wells 2.008 0.054 1.043 6.025 0.163 74.397 10.041 0.271 1215.109 18.075 0.489 1290.549

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 52.592 1.421 20.666 20.565 0.556 150.861 16.461 0.445 1290.369 89.618 2.422 1461.897

Pipeline 18.354 0.566 5.482 10.471 0.323 54.282 3.421 0.106 53.065 32.246 0.995 112.828

Platforms 29.553 0.912 13.355 2.463 0.076 13.868 2.463 0.076 13.868 34.478 1.064 41.090

Production Wells 2.008 0.062 1.043 6.025 0.186 74.397 10.041 0.310 1215.109 18.075 0.558 1290.549

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 49.915 1.541 19.880 18.959 0.585 142.546 15.925 0.492 1282.041 84.799 2.617 1444.468

Pipeline 18.354 0.644 4.716 10.471 0.367 49.889 3.421 0.120 49.969 32.246 1.131 104.574

Platforms 29.553 1.037 13.355 2.463 0.086 13.868 2.463 0.086 13.868 34.478 1.210 41.090

Production Wells 2.008 0.070 1.043 6.025 0.211 74.397 10.041 0.352 1215.109 18.075 0.634 1290.549

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 49.915 1.751 19.115 18.959 0.665 138.153 15.925 0.559 1278.945 84.799 2.975 1436.214

Pipeline 18.354 0.734 5.482 10.471 0.419 54.282 3.421 0.137 53.065 32.246 1.290 112.828

Platforms 29.553 1.182 13.355 2.463 0.099 13.868 2.463 0.099 13.868 34.478 1.379 41.090

Production Wells 2.008 0.080 1.043 6.025 0.241 74.397 10.041 0.402 1215.109 18.075 0.723 1290.549

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 49.915 1.997 19.880 18.959 0.758 142.546 15.925 0.637 1282.041 84.799 3.392 1444.468

Pipeline 18.354 0.838 5.482 10.471 0.478 54.282 3.421 0.156 53.065 32.246 1.472 112.828

Platforms 29.553 1.349 13.355 2.463 0.112 13.868 2.463 0.112 13.868 34.478 1.574 41.090

Production Wells 2.008 0.092 1.043 6.025 0.275 74.397 10.041 0.459 1215.109 18.075 0.825 1290.549

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 49.915 2.279 19.880 18.959 0.866 142.546 15.925 0.727 1282.041 84.799 3.872 1444.468

Pipeline 15.676 0.922 4.696 8.865 0.521 45.967 2.886 0.170 44.736 27.427 1.613 95.399

Platforms 24.591 1.447 11.113 2.049 0.121 11.539 2.049 0.121 11.539 28.690 1.688 34.192

Production Wells 1.671 0.098 0.868 5.013 0.295 61.907 8.356 0.492 1011.113 15.040 0.885 1073.887

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 41.939 2.467 16.677 15.927 0.937 119.413 13.291 0.782 1067.388 71.157 4.186 1203.479

Pipeline 15.676 1.052 4.696 8.865 0.595 45.967 2.886 0.194 44.736 27.427 1.841 95.399

Platforms 24.591 1.650 11.113 2.049 0.138 11.539 2.049 0.138 11.539 28.690 1.925 34.192

Production Wells 1.671 0.112 0.868 5.013 0.336 61.907 8.356 0.561 1011.113 15.040 1.009 1073.887

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 41.939 2.815 16.677 15.927 1.069 119.413 13.291 0.892 1067.388 71.157 4.776 1203.479

Pipeline 10.516 1.267 3.134 6.039 0.728 31.299 1.978 0.238 30.696 18.533 2.233 65.129

Platforms 14.668 1.767 6.629 1.222 0.147 6.883 1.222 0.147 6.883 17.113 2.062 20.395

Production Wells 0.997 0.120 0.518 2.990 0.360 36.927 4.984 0.600 603.120 8.971 1.081 640.564

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 26.181 3.154 10.281 10.252 1.235 75.109 8.185 0.986 640.699 44.617 5.376 726.088

Pipeline 10.516 1.440 3.134 6.039 0.827 31.299 1.978 0.271 30.696 18.533 2.539 65.129

Platforms 14.668 2.009 6.629 1.222 0.167 6.883 1.222 0.167 6.883 17.113 2.344 20.395

Production Wells 0.997 0.137 0.518 2.990 0.410 36.927 4.984 0.683 603.120 8.971 1.229 640.564

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 26.181 3.586 10.281 10.252 1.404 75.109 8.185 1.121 640.699 44.617 6.112 726.088

Pipeline 10.516 1.618 3.134 6.039 0.929 31.299 1.978 0.304 30.696 18.533 2.851 65.129

Platforms 14.668 2.257 6.629 1.222 0.188 6.883 1.222 0.188 6.883 17.113 2.633 20.395

2037

2035 6.5

2036

2033 14.9

2034 8.3

2031 25.0

2032 21.9

2029 37.0

2030 32.4

2027 49.9

2028 42.2

2025 67.5

2026 59.0

2023 85.6

2024 79.2

2021 97.9

2022 93.1

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4512
Table 4.5.12

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Production Wells 0.997 0.153 0.518 2.990 0.460 36.927 4.984 0.767 603.120 8.971 1.380 640.564

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 26.181 4.028 10.281 10.252 1.577 75.109 8.185 1.259 640.699 44.617 6.864 726.088

2038

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4512
Table 4.5.13

Spill Occurrence - Sale All non Arctic - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2005 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2006 0.365 0.189 1.095 13.490 1.904 236.619 2.999 250.109 3.364 250.299

2007 0.452 0.235 1.360 16.749 2.147 250.397 3.507 267.146 3.959 267.381

2008 0.591 0.307 1.775 21.864 2.978 361.818 4.753 383.682 5.343 383.989

2009 1.056 0.505 1.281 15.423 2.178 263.531 3.459 278.954 4.514 279.459

2010 7.9 6.263 0.022 2.459 4.187 0.066 38.555 4.700 0.110 486.764 8.887 0.176 525.319 15.150 0.285 527.778

2011 15.7 8.667 0.011 3.519 3.217 0.035 25.066 2.909 0.054 241.565 6.126 0.089 266.630 14.793 0.144 270.149

2012 23.6 15.018 0.005 6.023 7.669 0.016 66.879 7.851 0.032 742.107 15.520 0.047 808.986 30.538 0.079 815.009

2013 39.4 22.284 0.566 8.902 10.457 0.265 87.379 10.384 0.264 971.780 20.842 0.529 1059.158 43.126 1.095 #######

2014 44.4 24.896 0.561 10.069 10.111 0.228 81.563 9.839 0.222 893.711 19.950 0.449 975.274 44.846 1.010 985.343

2015 55.3 32.643 0.590 12.738 14.208 0.257 107.894 12.066 0.218 ####### 26.274 0.475 1121.746 58.916 1.065 #######

2016 59.5 35.273 0.593 13.915 13.918 0.234 102.779 11.348 0.191 893.851 25.266 0.425 996.630 60.540 1.017 #######

2017 74.5 46.332 0.622 17.746 19.836 0.266 142.513 15.051 0.202 ####### 34.887 0.468 1300.549 81.219 1.090 #######

2018 76.1 51.861 0.681 20.268 21.323 0.280 157.975 17.242 0.227 ####### 38.564 0.507 1531.306 90.425 1.188 #######

2019 102.5 66.341 0.647 25.414 27.365 0.267 192.204 20.069 0.196 ####### 47.435 0.463 1682.164 113.775 1.110 #######

2020 103.5 70.948 0.685 27.516 28.604 0.276 205.090 21.895 0.212 ####### 50.499 0.488 1874.462 121.447 1.173 #######

2021 97.9 75.556 0.772 29.618 29.843 0.305 217.975 23.720 0.242 ####### 53.564 0.547 2066.760 129.119 1.319 #######

2022 93.1 77.859 0.836 30.669 30.463 0.327 224.418 24.633 0.265 ####### 55.096 0.592 2162.909 132.955 1.428 #######

2023 85.6 77.859 0.910 30.669 30.463 0.356 224.418 24.633 0.288 ####### 55.096 0.644 2162.909 132.955 1.553 #######

2024 79.2 77.859 0.983 30.669 30.463 0.385 224.418 24.633 0.311 ####### 55.096 0.696 2162.909 132.955 1.679 #######

2025 67.5 69.883 1.035 27.466 27.432 0.406 201.285 21.998 0.326 ####### 49.430 0.732 1925.123 119.313 1.768 #######

2026 59.0 69.883 1.184 27.466 27.432 0.465 201.285 21.998 0.373 ####### 49.430 0.838 1925.123 119.313 2.022 #######

2027 49.9 61.907 1.241 24.263 24.400 0.489 178.152 19.363 0.388 ####### 43.763 0.877 1687.338 105.670 2.118 #######

2028 42.2 52.592 1.246 20.666 20.565 0.487 150.861 16.461 0.390 ####### 37.026 0.877 1441.230 89.618 2.124 #######

2029 37.0 52.592 1.421 20.666 20.565 0.556 150.861 16.461 0.445 ####### 37.026 1.001 1441.230 89.618 2.422 #######

2030 32.4 49.915 1.541 19.880 18.959 0.585 142.546 15.925 0.492 ####### 34.884 1.077 1424.587 84.799 2.617 #######

2031 28.5 49.915 1.751 19.115 18.959 0.665 138.153 15.925 0.559 ####### 34.884 1.224 1417.099 84.799 2.975 #######

2032 25.0 49.915 1.997 19.880 18.959 0.758 142.546 15.925 0.637 ####### 34.884 1.395 1424.587 84.799 3.392 #######

2033 21.9 49.915 2.279 19.880 18.959 0.866 142.546 15.925 0.727 ####### 34.884 1.593 1424.587 84.799 3.872 #######

2034 17.0 41.939 2.467 16.677 15.927 0.937 119.413 13.291 0.782 1067.39 29.22 1.72 1186.80 71.157 4.186 #######

2035 14.9 41.939 2.815 16.677 15.927 1.069 119.413 13.291 0.892 1067.39 29.22 1.96 1186.80 71.157 4.776 #######

2036 8.3 26.181 3.154 10.281 10.252 1.235 75.109 8.185 0.986 640.70 18.44 2.22 715.81 44.617 5.376 726.088

2037 7.3 26.181 3.586 10.281 10.252 1.404 75.109 8.185 1.121 640.70 18.44 2.53 715.81 44.617 6.112 726.088

2038 6.5 26.181 4.028 10.281 10.252 1.577 75.109 8.185 1.259 640.70 18.44 2.84 715.81 44.617 6.864 726.088

Total

 LOF 1375.6 1361.512 535 547.839 4096 453.443 36681 1001.282 40777 2362.794 41312

Average LOF 38.900 0.990 15 15.653 0.398 117 12.956 0.330 1048 28.608 0.728 1165 67.508 1.718 1180

38.900 15.653 12.956 28.608 67.508

0.990 0.398 0.330 0.728 1.718

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4513
Table 4.5.14

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

non Arctic

Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 77.86 30.46 24.63 55.10 132.96 0.98 0.38 0.31 0.70 1.68 30.56 224.84 1937.14 2161.97 2192.53

Std Deviation = 34.52 11.12 6.08 14.20 37.24 0.44 0.14 0.08 0.18 0.47 22.12 110.17 724.15 730.89 730.77

Variance = 1191.441 123.724 37.023 201.706 1386.990 0.190 0.020 0.006 0.032 0.221 489.312 12138.430 524394.600 534203.300 534030.200

Skewness = 0.41 0.42 0.12 0.22 0.31 0.41 0.42 0.12 0.22 0.31 1.55 0.77 0.46 0.44 0.45

Kurtosis = 2.55 2.56 2.88 2.74 2.63 2.55 2.56 2.88 2.74 2.63 5.93 3.51 3.11 3.10 3.10

Mode = 33.56 30.87 35.42 38.20 137.34 0.42 0.39 0.29 0.67 1.44 29.77 132.72 2079.76 1977.82 2010.21

Minimum = 8.817 5.112 5.891 17.724 41.710 0.111 0.065 0.074 0.224 0.527 0 -1.998 5.641 251.897 376.582 426.193

5% Perc = 27.504 14.346 14.877 32.840 76.646 0.347 0.181 0.188 0.415 0.968 5 6.931 74.735 851.352 1073.574 1102.062

10% Perc = 34.709 16.805 16.945 36.955 86.098 0.438 0.212 0.214 0.467 1.087 10 9.265 96.418 1047.872 1254.550 1290.020

15% Perc = 41.441 18.907 18.260 40.138 93.441 0.523 0.239 0.231 0.507 1.180 15 11.146 114.110 1177.367 1389.938 1425.981

20% Perc = 46.104 20.464 19.258 42.616 99.688 0.582 0.258 0.243 0.538 1.259 20 12.955 128.849 1296.875 1528.657 1563.413

25% Perc = 50.843 22.011 20.337 44.881 104.992 0.642 0.278 0.257 0.567 1.326 25 14.793 142.106 1420.558 1646.546 1672.868

30% Perc = 55.605 23.389 21.277 46.900 110.578 0.702 0.295 0.269 0.592 1.396 30 16.512 155.275 1520.373 1737.067 1770.278

35% Perc = 59.850 24.694 22.123 48.982 114.721 0.756 0.312 0.279 0.618 1.448 35 18.415 168.398 1610.040 1829.941 1856.235

40% Perc = 64.793 26.115 22.949 50.767 119.816 0.818 0.330 0.290 0.641 1.513 40 20.308 181.882 1692.924 1919.342 1947.100

45% Perc = 69.573 27.610 23.791 52.485 124.933 0.878 0.349 0.300 0.663 1.577 45 22.222 195.351 1780.954 2010.073 2039.333

50% Perc = 74.259 29.026 24.548 54.483 129.871 0.938 0.366 0.310 0.688 1.640 50 24.467 207.624 1879.098 2098.449 2128.648

55% Perc = 79.521 30.673 25.283 56.302 135.247 1.004 0.387 0.319 0.711 1.708 55 26.807 222.953 1970.531 2199.134 2229.001

60% Perc = 84.524 32.388 26.020 58.242 141.042 1.067 0.409 0.329 0.735 1.780 60 29.454 237.208 2063.482 2293.606 2326.409

65% Perc = 90.164 34.255 26.857 60.193 146.316 1.138 0.433 0.339 0.760 1.847 65 32.406 253.856 2171.583 2397.588 2426.913

70% Perc = 95.453 36.111 27.823 62.279 152.635 1.205 0.456 0.351 0.786 1.927 70 35.867 269.990 2276.770 2509.054 2542.947

75% Perc = 101.578 38.063 28.800 64.553 158.403 1.283 0.481 0.364 0.815 2.000 75 39.913 290.338 2403.704 2630.685 2655.646

80% Perc = 108.350 40.412 29.984 67.261 165.728 1.368 0.510 0.379 0.849 2.093 80 44.778 315.351 2534.795 2762.533 2793.170

85% Perc = 116.700 42.953 31.054 70.570 173.759 1.473 0.542 0.392 0.891 2.194 85 51.366 339.050 2697.835 2917.402 2952.054

90% Perc = 126.529 46.389 32.546 74.039 184.234 1.598 0.586 0.411 0.935 2.326 90 60.251 378.238 2898.324 3127.660 3164.976

95% Perc = 139.629 50.546 34.765 79.789 198.059 1.763 0.638 0.439 1.007 2.501 95 75.970 430.743 3219.934 3455.432 3479.107

Maximum = 182.846 65.927 49.972 106.795 263.397 2.309 0.832 0.631 1.348 3.326 ## 175.717 710.388 4991.787 5325.566 5345.080

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4514
Table 4.5.15

Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

non Arctic

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 15.35 8.91 2.93 11.84 27.19 0.39 0.23 0.07 0.30 0.69 4.54 46.30 45.33 91.63 96.17

Std Deviation = 8.46 5.07 1.69 5.34 9.96 0.22 0.13 0.04 0.14 0.25 3.36 37.87 27.93 46.84 46.93

Variance = 71.635 25.655 2.845 28.566 99.217 0.046 0.017 0.002 0.018 0.064 11.258 1433.946 780.262 2194.110 2202.401

Skewness = 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.48 0.40 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.48 0.40 1.34 1.41 0.77 0.90 0.90

Kurtosis = 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.53 2.67 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.53 2.67 4.83 5.15 2.97 3.83 3.82

Mode = 6.63 11.11 1.31 9.38 21.97 0.17 0.28 0.03 0.24 0.72 1.50 16.09 40.84 57.87 78.96

Minimum = 0.826 0.382 0.061 1.163 4.445 0.021 0.010 0.002 0.030 0.113 0 0.156 -6.100 1.058 6.365 12.906

5% Perc = 4.034 2.158 0.692 4.344 12.427 0.103 0.055 0.018 0.111 0.316 5 0.833 5.820 10.152 30.148 34.406

10% Perc = 5.299 2.862 0.938 5.394 14.745 0.135 0.073 0.024 0.137 0.375 10 1.192 9.183 13.944 38.404 42.181

15% Perc = 6.339 3.505 1.138 6.137 16.553 0.161 0.089 0.029 0.156 0.421 15 1.476 12.131 16.775 44.806 49.229

20% Perc = 7.221 4.142 1.327 6.914 18.221 0.184 0.105 0.034 0.176 0.464 20 1.766 15.186 19.841 50.858 55.441

25% Perc = 8.357 4.697 1.526 7.655 19.568 0.213 0.120 0.039 0.195 0.498 25 2.035 18.102 22.884 56.310 60.963

30% Perc = 9.342 5.333 1.740 8.254 21.084 0.238 0.136 0.044 0.210 0.537 30 2.341 21.256 26.056 61.173 66.055

35% Perc = 10.431 5.975 1.948 8.916 22.353 0.265 0.152 0.050 0.227 0.569 35 2.639 24.719 29.103 66.976 71.364

40% Perc = 11.562 6.636 2.175 9.634 23.660 0.294 0.169 0.055 0.245 0.602 40 2.951 27.764 32.580 72.624 77.215

45% Perc = 12.748 7.345 2.401 10.342 24.924 0.324 0.187 0.061 0.263 0.634 45 3.263 31.424 35.869 78.465 82.500

50% Perc = 13.988 8.069 2.656 11.204 26.221 0.356 0.205 0.068 0.285 0.667 50 3.602 35.488 39.575 83.463 88.422

55% Perc = 15.250 8.823 2.900 11.998 27.584 0.388 0.224 0.074 0.305 0.702 55 4.005 39.946 43.764 89.994 94.498

60% Perc = 16.649 9.667 3.185 12.753 29.018 0.424 0.246 0.081 0.324 0.738 60 4.444 44.841 47.880 96.483 101.173

65% Perc = 18.047 10.560 3.469 13.550 30.520 0.459 0.269 0.088 0.345 0.777 65 4.940 50.460 52.351 103.554 108.062

70% Perc = 19.594 11.456 3.782 14.482 32.040 0.499 0.291 0.096 0.368 0.815 70 5.520 56.662 57.670 110.624 115.285

75% Perc = 21.376 12.520 4.136 15.514 33.927 0.544 0.319 0.105 0.395 0.863 75 6.145 64.397 63.160 118.471 122.983

80% Perc = 23.184 13.653 4.510 16.662 35.958 0.590 0.347 0.115 0.424 0.915 80 6.941 73.228 69.610 128.525 132.777

85% Perc = 25.420 14.883 4.938 17.983 38.237 0.647 0.379 0.126 0.458 0.973 85 7.914 83.810 76.561 138.982 143.982

90% Perc = 27.769 16.391 5.428 19.475 41.178 0.707 0.417 0.138 0.496 1.048 90 9.252 99.999 86.279 155.048 159.550

95% Perc = 31.041 18.349 6.092 21.673 44.744 0.790 0.467 0.155 0.551 1.138 95 11.388 122.832 99.395 180.526 185.145

Maximum = 39.413 23.385 7.595 28.790 62.800 1.003 0.595 0.193 0.733 1.598 ## 21.577 250.078 146.806 296.607 300.040

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4515
Table 4.5.16

Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

non Arctic

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 21.91 1.83 1.83 3.65 25.56 0.56 0.05 0.05 0.09 0.65 9.85 10.21 10.21 20.43 30.28

Std Deviation = 14.85 1.24 1.24 2.48 15.03 0.38 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.38 10.27 9.09 9.09 18.17 20.83

Variance = 220.517 1.531 1.531 6.126 225.857 0.143 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.146 105.572 82.548 82.548 330.192 433.707

Skewness = 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 1.77 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.07

Kurtosis = 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.43 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.43 6.68 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.19

Mode = 2.03 0.22 0.22 0.45 9.81 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.84 1.44 1.44 2.88 27.30

Minimum = 0.146 0.013 0.013 0.025 0.924 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.024 0 -3.961 -4.817 -4.817 -9.634 -2.700

5% Perc = 2.516 0.210 0.210 0.420 5.412 0.064 0.005 0.005 0.011 0.138 5 0.366 0.600 0.600 1.200 4.851

10% Perc = 4.149 0.346 0.346 0.692 7.796 0.106 0.009 0.009 0.018 0.198 10 0.811 1.205 1.205 2.410 7.779

15% Perc = 5.837 0.486 0.486 0.973 9.683 0.149 0.012 0.012 0.025 0.247 15 1.310 1.783 1.783 3.565 10.127

20% Perc = 7.568 0.631 0.631 1.261 11.181 0.193 0.016 0.016 0.032 0.284 20 1.856 2.447 2.447 4.894 12.090

25% Perc = 9.353 0.780 0.780 1.560 12.895 0.238 0.020 0.020 0.040 0.328 25 2.479 3.184 3.184 6.369 14.150

30% Perc = 11.207 0.934 0.934 1.867 14.854 0.285 0.024 0.024 0.048 0.378 30 3.136 3.976 3.976 7.952 16.341

35% Perc = 13.125 1.093 1.093 2.187 16.846 0.334 0.028 0.028 0.056 0.429 35 3.873 4.710 4.710 9.420 18.451

40% Perc = 15.115 1.259 1.259 2.519 18.821 0.385 0.032 0.032 0.064 0.479 40 4.666 5.594 5.594 11.188 20.830

45% Perc = 17.190 1.432 1.432 2.865 20.944 0.437 0.036 0.036 0.073 0.533 45 5.478 6.560 6.560 13.120 23.184

50% Perc = 19.367 1.614 1.614 3.228 23.104 0.493 0.041 0.041 0.082 0.588 50 6.385 7.643 7.643 15.286 25.683

55% Perc = 21.645 1.804 1.804 3.608 25.538 0.551 0.046 0.046 0.092 0.650 55 7.455 8.761 8.761 17.522 28.630

60% Perc = 24.068 2.005 2.005 4.011 27.787 0.612 0.051 0.051 0.102 0.707 60 8.728 9.886 9.886 19.771 31.395

65% Perc = 26.632 2.219 2.219 4.439 30.255 0.678 0.056 0.056 0.113 0.770 65 10.047 11.363 11.363 22.726 34.748

70% Perc = 29.397 2.450 2.450 4.901 33.027 0.748 0.062 0.062 0.125 0.841 70 11.621 12.930 12.930 25.861 38.361

75% Perc = 32.407 2.701 2.701 5.401 36.196 0.825 0.069 0.069 0.137 0.921 75 13.847 14.953 14.953 29.906 42.121

80% Perc = 35.727 2.977 2.977 5.954 39.436 0.909 0.076 0.076 0.151 1.003 80 16.253 17.251 17.251 34.503 46.504

85% Perc = 39.504 3.292 3.292 6.583 43.365 1.005 0.084 0.084 0.167 1.103 85 19.518 19.794 19.794 39.588 51.420

90% Perc = 43.983 3.664 3.664 7.328 47.806 1.119 0.093 0.093 0.186 1.216 90 24.332 23.105 23.105 46.210 59.310

95% Perc = 49.804 4.151 4.151 8.302 53.344 1.267 0.106 0.106 0.211 1.357 95 30.997 28.481 28.481 56.963 70.900

Maximum = 63.630 5.316 5.316 10.633 70.457 1.619 0.135 0.135 0.271 1.793 ## 65.892 55.491 55.491 110.982 135.405

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4516
Table 4.5.17

Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

non Arctic

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 1.64 4.92 8.20 13.12 14.75 0.04 0.13 0.21 0.33 0.38 0.85 60.76 991.19 1051.96 1052.80

Std Deviation = 0.61 1.82 2.17 3.81 3.86 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.58 39.80 368.28 369.61 369.61

Variance = 0.371 3.317 4.694 14.542 14.912 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.009 0.010 0.335 1584.340 135628.200 136610.000 136614.000

Skewness = -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.77 0.85 0.49 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.41 2.41 2.72 2.54 2.55 2.41 2.41 2.72 2.54 2.55 3.44 3.57 3.18 3.18 3.18

Mode = 1.54 5.15 9.19 13.09 9.79 0.04 0.13 0.15 0.38 0.39 0.58 27.34 909.21 1022.44 1028.72

Minimum = 0.133 0.423 1.549 2.289 3.416 0.003 0.011 0.039 0.058 0.087 0 -0.313 -11.433 139.525 143.755 144.851

5% Perc = 0.609 1.853 4.627 6.740 8.353 0.015 0.047 0.118 0.171 0.213 5 0.070 8.465 440.171 497.274 498.356

10% Perc = 0.817 2.441 5.400 8.036 9.650 0.021 0.062 0.137 0.204 0.246 10 0.168 15.093 546.571 601.372 602.121

15% Perc = 0.968 2.912 5.920 9.019 10.599 0.025 0.074 0.151 0.230 0.270 15 0.264 20.900 615.368 669.445 669.644

20% Perc = 1.095 3.270 6.348 9.826 11.330 0.028 0.083 0.162 0.250 0.288 20 0.343 25.696 670.138 728.787 729.679

25% Perc = 1.199 3.608 6.693 10.427 11.996 0.031 0.092 0.170 0.265 0.305 25 0.416 30.552 724.214 784.437 784.908

30% Perc = 1.298 3.897 7.030 11.002 12.616 0.033 0.099 0.179 0.280 0.321 30 0.485 35.131 772.799 832.859 833.621

35% Perc = 1.400 4.197 7.317 11.523 13.135 0.036 0.107 0.186 0.293 0.334 35 0.551 40.012 818.899 882.557 883.347

40% Perc = 1.485 4.435 7.593 12.128 13.684 0.038 0.113 0.193 0.309 0.348 40 0.614 44.583 866.229 929.695 930.361

45% Perc = 1.563 4.687 7.908 12.626 14.237 0.040 0.119 0.201 0.321 0.362 45 0.678 49.578 912.837 975.811 976.327

50% Perc = 1.634 4.934 8.199 13.121 14.735 0.042 0.126 0.209 0.334 0.375 50 0.752 53.772 962.948 1021.763 1023.091

55% Perc = 1.715 5.165 8.475 13.616 15.279 0.044 0.131 0.216 0.346 0.389 55 0.828 59.103 1006.561 1068.410 1069.262

60% Perc = 1.798 5.402 8.766 14.087 15.788 0.046 0.137 0.223 0.358 0.402 60 0.903 64.483 1054.279 1114.517 1115.368

65% Perc = 1.885 5.653 9.057 14.637 16.278 0.048 0.144 0.230 0.372 0.414 65 0.991 70.091 1107.404 1166.183 1166.823

70% Perc = 1.984 5.914 9.391 15.297 16.909 0.050 0.150 0.239 0.389 0.430 70 1.084 77.127 1160.943 1223.752 1224.516

75% Perc = 2.079 6.216 9.717 15.812 17.551 0.053 0.158 0.247 0.402 0.447 75 1.185 83.888 1223.616 1283.810 1285.019

80% Perc = 2.189 6.553 10.077 16.461 18.190 0.056 0.167 0.256 0.419 0.463 80 1.309 92.130 1290.376 1352.089 1352.599

85% Perc = 2.310 6.936 10.503 17.243 18.919 0.059 0.176 0.267 0.439 0.481 85 1.464 102.500 1374.826 1433.137 1434.821

90% Perc = 2.454 7.349 11.015 18.222 19.859 0.062 0.187 0.280 0.464 0.505 90 1.648 115.740 1480.778 1543.281 1544.711

95% Perc = 2.651 7.951 11.798 19.425 21.134 0.067 0.202 0.300 0.494 0.538 95 1.947 137.345 1648.628 1722.448 1723.803

Maximum = 3.228 9.355 14.478 23.476 25.856 0.082 0.238 0.368 0.597 0.658 ## 3.407 227.697 2504.288 2561.302 2561.494

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4517
Table 4.5.18

Sale All non Arctic LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

non Arctic

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 23.55 6.74 10.02 16.77 40.32 0.60 0.17 0.26 0.43 1.03 10.69 70.97 1001.41 1072.38 1083.08

Std Deviation = 14.87 2.20 2.50 4.54 15.56 0.38 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.40 10.29 40.86 368.41 370.09 370.31

Variance = 221.149 4.837 6.226 20.648 242.187 0.143 0.003 0.004 0.013 0.157 105.901 1669.390 135722.400 136968.400 137133.100

Skewness = 0.56 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.49 0.56 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.49 1.76 0.80 0.49 0.49 0.48

Kurtosis = 2.40 2.68 2.80 2.73 2.48 2.40 2.68 2.80 2.73 2.48 6.64 3.47 3.18 3.19 3.19

Mode = 4.28 8.02 10.69 11.57 27.61 0.11 0.30 0.27 0.36 0.74 4.85 71.50 1014.74 953.94 993.33

Minimum = 0.812 1.108 2.199 3.435 7.754 0.021 0.028 0.056 0.087 0.197 0 -3.362 -8.368 142.871 169.663 183.146

5% Perc = 4.139 3.105 5.955 9.269 18.988 0.105 0.079 0.152 0.236 0.483 5 1.069 15.745 452.129 512.618 526.533

10% Perc = 5.794 3.924 6.874 10.925 21.766 0.147 0.100 0.175 0.278 0.554 10 1.656 24.118 557.093 622.101 633.465

15% Perc = 7.439 4.395 7.430 11.997 23.850 0.189 0.112 0.189 0.305 0.607 15 2.205 29.976 626.810 691.172 701.853

20% Perc = 9.188 4.813 7.887 12.776 25.743 0.234 0.122 0.201 0.325 0.655 20 2.759 35.187 680.626 749.397 759.462

25% Perc = 10.988 5.190 8.251 13.556 27.736 0.280 0.132 0.210 0.345 0.706 25 3.385 40.384 734.241 805.946 814.987

30% Perc = 12.880 5.506 8.662 14.242 29.618 0.328 0.140 0.220 0.362 0.754 30 4.003 45.107 783.553 854.364 864.136

35% Perc = 14.717 5.823 8.989 14.877 31.543 0.374 0.148 0.229 0.379 0.803 35 4.729 49.841 831.082 904.190 913.675

40% Perc = 16.719 6.131 9.327 15.490 33.742 0.425 0.156 0.237 0.394 0.859 40 5.479 54.926 876.794 950.606 962.593

45% Perc = 18.812 6.438 9.686 16.110 35.806 0.479 0.164 0.246 0.410 0.911 45 6.316 59.538 923.222 995.468 1005.630

50% Perc = 21.065 6.712 9.987 16.643 38.237 0.536 0.171 0.254 0.423 0.973 50 7.249 64.223 971.470 1042.268 1053.644

55% Perc = 23.295 6.994 10.327 17.261 40.556 0.593 0.178 0.263 0.439 1.032 55 8.331 69.548 1017.226 1090.164 1100.088

60% Perc = 25.653 7.293 10.652 17.861 42.701 0.653 0.186 0.271 0.454 1.087 60 9.652 75.023 1064.067 1133.646 1144.673

65% Perc = 28.272 7.592 10.945 18.495 45.490 0.719 0.193 0.278 0.471 1.157 65 11.024 81.168 1118.448 1186.539 1196.464

70% Perc = 31.135 7.920 11.321 19.171 47.987 0.792 0.202 0.288 0.488 1.222 70 12.485 87.929 1168.733 1245.795 1253.879

75% Perc = 33.996 8.279 11.689 19.836 51.049 0.865 0.211 0.297 0.505 1.299 75 14.743 94.264 1233.967 1306.528 1316.194

80% Perc = 37.368 8.632 12.124 20.632 54.646 0.951 0.220 0.308 0.525 1.390 80 16.978 102.830 1300.917 1371.744 1382.050

85% Perc = 41.191 9.074 12.669 21.593 58.601 1.048 0.231 0.322 0.549 1.491 85 20.298 113.759 1383.158 1452.851 1465.552

90% Perc = 45.637 9.607 13.296 22.710 62.749 1.161 0.244 0.338 0.578 1.597 90 25.156 127.982 1492.942 1567.140 1577.064

95% Perc = 51.486 10.445 14.237 24.477 68.693 1.310 0.266 0.362 0.623 1.748 95 32.071 149.955 1660.347 1739.593 1751.937

Maximum = 65.810 13.534 18.243 31.293 86.770 1.674 0.344 0.464 0.796 2.208 ## 66.708 248.854 2505.519 2582.127 2584.949

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4518
Table 4.5.19

Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

Sale All

non Arctic

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 38.90 15.65 12.96 28.61 67.51 0.99 0.40 0.33 0.73 1.72 15.23 117.28 1046.74 1164.01 1179.25

Std Deviation = 17.19 5.50 2.98 6.99 18.56 0.44 0.14 0.08 0.18 0.47 10.84 55.31 369.66 373.83 374.08

Variance = 295.659 30.204 8.879 48.830 344.476 0.191 0.020 0.006 0.032 0.223 117.498 3059.356 136647.700 139746.000 139936.500

Skewness = 0.43 0.41 0.10 0.22 0.34 0.43 0.41 0.10 0.22 0.34 1.58 0.71 0.48 0.47 0.47

Kurtosis = 2.58 2.58 2.77 2.73 2.68 2.58 2.58 2.77 2.73 2.68 6.19 3.46 3.18 3.17 3.17

Mode = 34.95 21.29 10.46 20.05 57.90 0.89 0.33 0.27 0.51 1.47 5.05 100.42 1107.27 911.67 913.44

Minimum = 5.055 2.565 3.639 8.379 21.029 0.129 0.065 0.093 0.213 0.535 0 -2.561 3.874 169.604 210.258 241.041

5% Perc = 13.712 7.710 8.164 17.682 38.957 0.349 0.196 0.208 0.450 0.991 5 3.519 40.024 493.326 604.694 620.369

10% Perc = 17.492 8.913 9.097 19.805 44.371 0.445 0.227 0.231 0.504 1.129 10 4.773 52.134 598.245 706.856 722.199

15% Perc = 20.542 9.888 9.832 21.300 47.957 0.523 0.252 0.250 0.542 1.220 15 5.709 61.065 670.318 778.326 793.822

20% Perc = 23.270 10.737 10.378 22.519 50.956 0.592 0.273 0.264 0.573 1.296 20 6.665 68.783 728.195 842.446 855.309

25% Perc = 25.665 11.365 10.893 23.568 53.731 0.653 0.289 0.277 0.600 1.367 25 7.523 75.992 779.158 896.257 910.523

30% Perc = 27.984 12.119 11.324 24.481 56.369 0.712 0.308 0.288 0.623 1.434 30 8.465 82.231 825.458 941.308 954.951

35% Perc = 30.224 12.827 11.695 25.447 58.754 0.769 0.326 0.298 0.647 1.495 35 9.336 89.695 872.635 989.932 1004.930

40% Perc = 32.559 13.561 12.083 26.346 61.043 0.828 0.345 0.307 0.670 1.553 40 10.218 96.255 922.311 1040.194 1055.378

45% Perc = 34.790 14.279 12.483 27.252 63.438 0.885 0.363 0.318 0.693 1.614 45 11.205 103.845 968.421 1086.033 1102.594

50% Perc = 36.945 15.008 12.842 28.203 65.814 0.940 0.382 0.327 0.718 1.675 50 12.306 110.362 1015.177 1133.325 1151.631

55% Perc = 39.293 15.824 13.265 29.172 68.521 1.000 0.403 0.338 0.742 1.743 55 13.502 117.058 1061.010 1183.040 1199.035

60% Perc = 41.833 16.625 13.683 30.164 71.074 1.064 0.423 0.348 0.767 1.808 60 14.774 124.499 1110.549 1229.535 1243.312

65% Perc = 44.376 17.451 14.094 31.178 73.905 1.129 0.444 0.359 0.793 1.880 65 16.216 132.374 1161.630 1281.658 1296.791

70% Perc = 47.359 18.463 14.584 32.325 76.846 1.205 0.470 0.371 0.822 1.955 70 17.697 140.893 1219.407 1337.456 1351.070

75% Perc = 50.816 19.447 15.001 33.401 80.205 1.293 0.495 0.382 0.850 2.041 75 19.850 150.998 1277.195 1398.623 1410.266

80% Perc = 54.311 20.538 15.517 34.690 83.852 1.382 0.523 0.395 0.883 2.133 80 22.141 162.442 1346.644 1466.749 1480.705

85% Perc = 58.598 21.959 16.129 36.020 87.919 1.491 0.559 0.410 0.916 2.237 85 25.357 174.740 1432.382 1552.052 1568.032

90% Perc = 63.424 23.339 16.927 38.027 92.794 1.614 0.594 0.431 0.968 2.361 90 30.032 191.977 1542.539 1666.080 1679.013

95% Perc = 69.878 25.494 17.897 40.657 100.212 1.778 0.649 0.455 1.034 2.550 95 37.450 221.039 1711.058 1845.372 1857.471

Maximum = 97.316 34.754 22.812 55.275 134.236 2.476 0.884 0.580 1.406 3.415 ## 81.626 363.159 2588.844 2667.432 2686.384

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4519
Table 4.5.20

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 30.403 56% 44.437 86% 3.020 11% 47.457 60% 77.859 59% P/L 30.403 39% 17.701 58% 5.831 24% 23.532 43% 53.934 41%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 17.701 33% 3.703 7% 9.059 33% 12.762 16% 30.463 23% Platforms 44.437 57% 3.703 12% 3.703 15% 7.406 13% 51.843 39%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 5.831 11% 3.703 7% 15.099 56% 18.802 24% 24.633 19% Wells 3.020 4% 9.059 30% 15.099 61% 24.158 44% 27.178 20%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 23.532 44% 7.406 14% 24.158 89% 31.564 40% 55.096 41% Platforms

and Wells 47.457 61% 12.762 42% 18.802 76% 31.564 57% 79.021 59%

All Spills 53.934 100% 51.843 100% 27.178 100% 79.021 100% 132.955 100% All 77.859 100% 30.463 100% 24.633 100% 55.096 100% 132.955 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.384 56% 0.561 86% 0.038 11% 0.599 60% 0.983 59% P/L 0.384 39% 0.223 58% 0.074 24% 0.297 43% 0.681 41%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.223 33% 0.047 7% 0.114 33% 0.161 16% 0.385 23% Platforms 0.561 57% 0.047 12% 0.047 15% 0.094 13% 0.655 39%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.074 11% 0.047 7% 0.191 56% 0.237 24% 0.311 19% Wells 0.038 4% 0.114 30% 0.191 61% 0.305 44% 0.343 20%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.297 44% 0.094 14% 0.305 89% 0.399 40% 0.696 41% Platformsand Wells 0.599 61% 0.161 42% 0.237 76% 0.399 57% 0.998 59%

All Spills 0.681 100% 0.655 100% 0.343 100% 0.998 100% 1.679 100% All 0.983 100% 0.385 100% 0.311 100% 0.696 100% 1.679 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 9 5% 20 33% 2 0% 22 1% 31 1% P/L 9 29% 92 41% 91 5% 182 8% 191 9%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 92 48% 21 34% 112 6% 133 7% 224 10% Platforms 20 65% 21 9% 21 1% 42 2% 62 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 91 47% 21 34% 1827 94% 1848 92% 1938 88% Wells 2 5% 112 50% 1827 94% 1939 90% 1941 88%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 182 95% 42 67% 1939 100% 1981 99% 2163 99% Platformsand Wells 22 71% 133 59% 1848 95% 1981 92% 2002 91%

All Spills 191 100% 62 100% 1941 100% 2002 100% 2194 100% All 31 100% 224 100% 1938 100% 2163 100% 2194 100%

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4520
Table 4.5.21

Composition of Spill Indicators - Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 15.351 56% 21.910 86% 1.639 11% 23.549 58% 38.900 58% P/L 15.351 39% 8.909 57% 2.931 23% 11.840 41% 27.192 40%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 8.909 33% 1.826 7% 4.917 33% 6.743 17% 15.653 23% Platforms 21.910 56% 1.826 12% 1.826 14% 3.652 13% 25.562 38%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 2.931 11% 1.826 7% 8.199 56% 10.024 25% 12.956 19% Wells 1.639 4% 4.917 31% 8.199 63% 13.116 46% 14.755 22%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 11.840 44% 3.652 14% 13.116 89% 16.768 42% 28.608 42% Platformsand Wells 23.549 61% 6.743 43% 10.024 77% 16.768 59% 40.317 60%

All Spills 27.192 100% 25.562 100% 14.755 100% 40.317 100% 67.508 100% All 38.900 100% 15.653 100% 12.956 100% 28.608 100% 67.508 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.391 56% 0.557 86% 0.042 11% 0.599 58% 0.990 58% P/L 0.391 39% 0.227 57% 0.075 23% 0.301 41% 0.692 40%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.227 33% 0.046 7% 0.125 33% 0.172 17% 0.398 23% Platforms 0.557 56% 0.046 12% 0.046 14% 0.093 13% 0.650 38%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.075 11% 0.046 7% 0.209 56% 0.255 25% 0.330 19% Wells 0.042 4% 0.125 31% 0.209 63% 0.334 46% 0.375 22%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.301 44% 0.093 14% 0.334 89% 0.427 42% 0.728 42% Platforms

and Wells 0.599 61% 0.172 43% 0.255 77% 0.427 59% 1.026 60%

All Spills 0.692 100% 0.650 100% 0.375 100% 1.026 100% 1.718 100% All 0.990 100% 0.398 100% 0.330 100% 0.728 100% 1.718 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 5 5% 10 33% 1 0% 11 1% 15 1% P/L 5 30% 46 39% 45 4% 91 8% 96 8%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 46 48% 10 34% 61 6% 71 7% 117 10% Platforms 10 65% 10 9% 10 1% 21 2% 30 3%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 45 47% 10 34% 992 94% 1003 92% 1048 89% Wells 1 6% 61 52% 992 95% 1053 90% 1054 89%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 91 95% 21 67% 1053 100% 1074 99% 1165 99% Platforms

and Wells 11 70% 71 61% 1003 96% 1074 92% 1084 92%

All Spills 96 100% 30 100% 1054 100% 1084 100% 1180 100% All 15 100% 117 100% 1048 100% 1165 100% 1180 100%

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsT4521
C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4501

Sale All non Arctic- Spill Frequency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4502

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4503 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4504 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency - P/L

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4505 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4506 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index - P/L

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4507 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4508 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4509 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index - Platforms

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4510 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4511 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Bercha Group C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4512 04/01/2005

Sale All non Arctic - Spill Index - Wells

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.5.13 Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale All non Arctic Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale All non Arctic Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Index - CDF Sale All non Arctic Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency - CDF Sale All non Arctic Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Sale All non Arctic Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Index - CDF Sale All non Arctic Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4513
Figure 4.5.14 Spill Frequency - CDF - Sale All non Arctic

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4514
Figure 4.5.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF - Sale All non Arctic

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4515
Figure 4.5.16 Spill Index [bbl] - CDF - Sale All non Arctic

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF Sale All non Arctic LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4516
Figure 4.5.17

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024 - Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

39%

41%

20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 132.955

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

39%

41%

20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.679

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

88%

9%

P/L 3%

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 2194

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

58%

23%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 

132.955

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

23%

58% 19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.679

Sale All non Arctic - Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 2194

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4517
Figure 4.5.18

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Sale All non Arctic- LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

58%

23%

19%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.718

Sale All non Arctic- LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

58%

19%

23%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 67.508

Sale All non Arctic- LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

40%

22%

38%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 67.508

Sale All non Arctic- LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

40%

22%

38%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.718

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

8%

3%

89%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1180

Sale All non Arctic - LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

89%

10%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1180

C4_5 Sale All non Arctic.xlsF4518
Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2407

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-04-PO-336507

January, 2006

APPENDIX 5

Conclusions
Table 5.1

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]

9.404 0.612 4 9.586 0.674 4 11.320 0.714 5 26.180 0.666 11 38.900 0.990 15

56% 56% 1% 57% 57% 1% 57% 57% 1% 57% 57% 1% 58% 58% 1%

4.099 0.267 31 3.989 0.281 30 4.575 0.289 35 10.882 0.277 81 15.653 0.398 117

24% 24% 10% 24% 24% 10% 23% 23% 10% 24% 24% 10% 23% 23% 10%

3.369 0.219 270 3.323 0.234 268 3.901 0.246 317 9.019 0.229 721 12.956 0.330 1048

20% 20% 89% 20% 20% 89% 20% 20% 89% 20% 20% 89% 19% 19% 89%

7.468 0.486 300 7.312 0.514 298 8.476 0.535 352 19.901 0.506 803 28.608 0.728 1165

44% 44% 99% 43% 43% 99% 43% 43% 99% 43% 43% 99% 42% 42% 99%

16.872 1.098 304 16.897 1.188 302 19.796 1.249 357 46.081 1.172 814 67.508 1.718 1180

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

5.953 0.388 25 5.899 0.415 23 6.551 0.413 26 15.925 0.405 64 27.192 0.692 96

35% 35% 8% 35% 35% 8% 33% 33% 7% 35% 35% 8% 40% 40% 8%

7.122 0.464 9 7.210 0.507 9 8.751 0.552 11 19.947 0.508 24 25.562 0.650 30

42% 42% 3% 43% 43% 3% 44% 44% 3% 43% 43% 3% 38% 38% 3%

3.797 0.247 271 3.787 0.266 271 4.494 0.283 321 10.209 0.260 726 14.755 0.375 1054

23% 23% 89% 22% 22% 89% 23% 23% 90% 22% 22% 89% 22% 22% 89%

10.918 0.711 280 10.998 0.773 279 13.245 0.835 331 30.157 0.767 750 40.317 1.026 1084

65% 65% 92% 65% 65% 92% 67% 67% 93% 65% 65% 92% 60% 60% 92%

16.872 1.098 304 16.897 1.188 302 19.796 1.249 357 46.081 1.172 814 67.508 1.718 1180

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Well Spills

SALE All

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

All Spills

Platform and Well Spills

SALE 2 SALE 3

Spill Indicators

LOF Average

SALE 1 SALE All

non Arctic

Pipeline Spills

Platform Spills

C5 Conclusions.xlsT501
Table 5.2

Summary of Development Scenarios for year 2020

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 2 46 30 30 10.1

Medium 1 23 10 10 18.9

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 29.0

Shallow 1 23 20 20 7.3

Medium 2 46 5 15 20 28.6

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 35.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 38 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 3 69 65 65 17.4

Medium 5 20 107 10 40 50 86.1

Deep

Total 8 20 176 10 105 115 103.5

2020

Sum<10"

2020

2020

2020

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

ALL

Sale

1

2

3

C5 Conclusions.xlsT502
Figure 5.1 LOF Spill Indicators - By Size

Life of Field Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Spill Frequency

per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

3.369 3.323 3.901 9.019 12.956

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

4.099 3.989 4.575 10.882 15.653

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

9.404 9.586 11.320 26.180 38.900

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3 SALE All SALE All

non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Spill Frequency

 per 10^9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

0.219 0.234 0.246 0.229 0.330

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

0.267 0.281 0.289 0.277 0.398

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

0.612 0.674 0.714 0.666 0.990

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3 SALE All SALE All

non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

270 268 317 721 1048

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

31 30 35 81 117

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

4 4 5 11 15

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3 SALE All SALE All

non Arctic

C:\ProjectsMain\2004 Projects\2407-MMS\MilanCalc\Ver 9 MMS Nov 2005\C5 Conclusions.xlsF501
Figure 5.2 LOF Spill Indicators - By Size

Life of Field Average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Spill Frequency

per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

3.369 3.323 3.901

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

4.099 3.989 4.575

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

9.404 9.586 11.320

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3

Life of Field Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Spill Frequency

 per 10^9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

0.219 0.234 0.246

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

0.267 0.281 0.289

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

0.612 0.674 0.714

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3

Life of Field Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

270 268 317

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

31 30 35

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

4 4 5

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3

C:\ProjectsMain\2004 Projects\2407-MMS\MilanCalc\Ver 9 MMS Nov 2005\C5 Conclusions.xlsF502
Figure 5.2 LOF Spill Indicators - By Source

Life of Field Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Spill Frequency

per 1000 years

Well Spills 3.797 3.787 4.494 10.209 14.755

Platform Spills 7.122 7.210 8.751 19.947 25.562

Pipeline Spills 5.953 5.899 6.551 15.925 27.192

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3 SALE All SALE All

non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Spill Frequency

 per 10^9 bbl produced

Well Spills 0.247 0.266 0.283 0.260 0.375

Platform Spills 0.464 0.507 0.552 0.508 0.650

Pipeline Spills 0.388 0.415 0.413 0.405 0.692

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3 SALE All SALE All

non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Spill Index [bbl]

Well Spills 271 271 321 726 1054

Platform Spills 9 9 11 24 30

Pipeline Spills 25 23 26 64 96

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3 SALE All SALE All

non Arctic

C:\ProjectsMain\2004 Projects\2407-MMS\MilanCalc\Ver 9 MMS Nov 2005\C5 Conclusions.xlsF503
Figure 5.4 LOF Spill Indicators - By Source

Life of Field Average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Spill Frequency

per 1000 years

Well Spills 3.797 3.787 4.494

Platform Spills 7.122 7.210 8.751

Pipeline Spills 5.953 5.899 6.551

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3

Life of Field Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Spill Frequency

 per 10^9 bbl produced

Well Spills 0.247 0.266 0.283

Platform Spills 0.464 0.507 0.552

Pipeline Spills 0.388 0.415 0.413

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3

Life of Field Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Spill Index [bbl]

Well Spills 271 271 321

Platform Spills 9 9 11

Pipeline Spills 25 23 26

SALE 1 SALE 2 SALE 3

C:\ProjectsMain\2004 Projects\2407-MMS\MilanCalc\Ver 9 MMS Nov 2005\C5 Conclusions.xlsF504
C5 Conclusions.xlsF4505

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
C5 Conclusions.xlsF4506

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
C5 Conclusions.xlsF4507

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
The Department of the Interior Mission

As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our 

nationally owned public lands and natural resources. This includes fostering sound use of our land and water 

resources; protecting our fish, wildlife, and biological diversity; preserving the environmental and cultural values of 

our national parks and historical places;and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The 

Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to ensure that their development is in the best 

interests of all our people by encouraging stewardship and citizen participation in their care. The Department also 

has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in island territories 

under U.S. administration.

The Minerals Management Service Mission

As a bureau of the Department of the Interior, the Minerals Management Service's (MMS) primary responsibilities 

are to manage the mineral resources located on the Nation's Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), collect revenue from 

the Federal OCS and onshore Federal and Indian lands, and distribute those revenues.

Moreover, in working to meet its responsibilities, the Offshore Minerals Management Program administers the 

OCS competitive leasing program and oversees the safe and environmentally sound exploration and production of 

our Nation's offshore natural gas, oil and other mineral resources. The MMS Royalty Management Program

meets its responsibilities by ensuring the efficient, timely and accurate collection and disbursement of revenue from 

mineral leasing and production due to Indian tribes and allottees, States and the U.S. Treasury.

The MMS strives to fulfill its responsibilities through the general guiding principles of: (1) being responsive to the 

public's concerns and interests by maintaining a dialogue with all potentially affected parties and (2) carrying out its 

programs with an emphasis on working to enhance the quality of life for all Americans by lending MMS assistance 

and expertise to economic development and environmental protection.