### Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet

Kentucky Division for Air Quality



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Appendix C.2 VISTAS Modeling Quality Assurance Project Plan[This page intentionally left blank.]

### Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft)

For

Visibility Improvements for States and Tribal

Associations for the Southe astern States (VISTAS)

Emissions and Air Quality Modeling

Revision 0 November 17, 2004

Prepared for:

Ms. Patricia Brewer

Technical Coordinator

Western Governors’ Association

Project Manager and Co-Principal Investigator: Mr. Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation 101 Rowland Way, Site 220 Novato, CA 94945

Contractors:

Co-Principal Investigator:

Dr. Tom Tesche Alpine Geophysics, LLC

3479 Reeves Drive Ft. Wright, KY 41017

Co-Principal Investigator:

Dr. Gail Tonnesen College of Engineering Center for Environmental Research and Technology University of California at Riverside Riverside, CA 92507Approvals

Title: Quality Assurance Project Plan for Visibi lity Improvements for States and Tribal

Associations for the Southeastern States (VISTAS) Emissions and Air Quality Modeling, November 17, 2004.

Ms. Patricia Brewer Date:

Technical Coordinator Visibility Improvements for St ates and Tribal Associations for the Southeastern States

(Name here) Date: Project Officer U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Mr. Ralph Morris Date: Project Manager and Co-P rincipal Investigator ENVIRON International Corporation

Dr. Tom Tesche Date: Co-Principal Investigator Alpine Geophysics, LLC

Dr. Gail Tonnesen Date: Co-Principal Investigator University of California at Riverside

EVIRON International Corporation 101 Rowland Way, Suite 220

Novato, California 94945CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... .... 1

1.1 Problem Definition.................................................................................................................... 2

2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Background............................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 VISTAS Two-Phased Approach............................................................................................... 3

2.2.1 VISTAS Phase I............................................................................................................. 3

2.2.2 VISTAS Phase II............................................................................................................ 4 2.2.2.1 Data Gatekeepers ................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2.2 Emissions QA/QC................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2.3 Meteorology QA/QC .............................................................................................. 8 2.2.2.4 Air Qualtiy Modeling QA/QC ................................................................................ 8 2.2.2.5 Overview of Data Flow and Quality Assurance Process........................................ 9

2.3 VISTAS Phase I and II Modeling Protocols........................................................................... 14

2.4 VISTAS Phase I Activities .................................................................................................. ... 14 2.4.1 Phase I Task 1: Project Management........................................................................... 14 2.4.2 Phase I Task 2: Develop Model Configuration Evaluation Plan ................................. 15 2.4.3 Phase I Task 3: Acquisition and Development of Modeling Data Bases .................... 15 2.4.4 Phase I Task 4: Develop Optimal VISTAS Modeling Configuration ......................... 17 2.4.5 Phase I Task 6: Phase II Modeling Protocol................................................................ 18 2.4.6 Phase I Task 7: Website Development ........................................................................ 19

2.5 VISTAS Phase II Activities.................................................................................................... 19 2.5.1 Phase II Task 1: Project Management ......................................................................... 19 2.5.2 Phase II Task 2: Develop IC/BCs for 2002 Annual Run ............................................. 21

2.5.3 Phase II Task 3: 12002 Data Pr eparation and Model Inputs ....................................... 22 2.5.3.1 Subtask 3a: Air Quality Data Gatekeeper............................................................. 22 2.5.3.2 Subtask 3b: MM5 Meteorolog ical Model Gatekeeper.......................................... 22 2.5.3.3 Subtask 3c: Emissions Gatekeeper and Emissions Development for Non-VISTAS States, Canada, and Mexico ..................................................... 22 2.5.3.4 Subtask 3d: Emissinos Modeling.......................................................................... 23 2.5.3.5 Subtask 3e: Future-Year Emissions Modeling for Three VISTAS Phase I Episodes .......................................................................... 25

2.5.3.6 Subtask 3f: Interim Future-Year Emi ssions Modeling using 2002 Meteorology. 25

2.5.3.7 Phase II Task 3 Deliverables................................................................................. 25 2.5.4 Phase II Task 4: 2002 Annual CMAQ Modeling ........................................................ 26

2.5.4.1 Subtask 4a: Initial Base Case a nd Model Performance Evaluation...................... 26

2.5.4.2 Subtask 4b: Revised Base Case Simulation.......................................................... 27 2.5.4.3 Subtask 4c: Typical Year Emissions Simulation.................................................. 27

2.5.4.4 Subtask 4d: Future-Year Mode ling for Two Scenarios ........................................ 28 2.5.4.5 Subtask 4e: Interim Future-Year using 2002 Database ........................................ 28 2.5.4.6 Summary of Phase II Task 4 Deliverables............................................................ 28 2.5.5 Phase II Task 5: Episodic Modleing ............................................................................ 29 2.5.6 Phase II Task 6: Data Management ............................................................................. 29 2.5.6.1 Subtask 6a: VISTAS Modeling Website .............................................................. 29 2.5.6.2 Subtask 6b: Data Transfer, Storage and Retrieval................................................ 292.5.6.3 Phase II Task 6 Data Management Deliverables .................................................. 30

2.5.7 Phase II Task 7: Emission Reducti on Sensitivity Simulations using CB4 and SAPRC Chemistry and 2 Phase I Episodes .................................................. 30 2.5.8 Phase II Task 10: Journal Paper on VISTAS Phase I Modeling.................................. 31 2.5.9 Phase II Task 13: Analysis and Pr ocessing of 2002 GEOS-CHEM Data ................... 31

3.0 PROJECT MANAGEMENT............................................................................................... 32 3.1 Project Organization ....................................................................................................... ........ 32 3.1.1 ENVIRON Project manager and Co-Principal Investigator ........................................ 35 3.1.2 ENVIRON, Alpine and UCR Co -Principal Investigators............................................ 35 3.1.3 VISTAS Contracting Officer ....................................................................................... 36

3.1.4 VISTAS Technical Contact ........................................................................................ 36 3.1.5 VISTAS Technical Analysis Workgroup (TAWG)..................................................... 37 3.2 Project Schedule and Execution............................................................................................. . 37 3.3 Personnel Qualifications and Training.................................................................................... 37

3.4 Communications Plan ............................................................................................................. 38

3.5 Documentation and Records.................................................................................................. . 39

4.0 MEASUREMENT AND DATA ACQUISITION .............................................................. 39 4.1 Computer Hardware/Sys tems Administration ........................................................................ 39 4.1.1 ENVIRON Modeling Center Hardware....................................................................... 39 4.1.2 Alpine Geophysics Modeling Center Hardware .......................................................... 40 4.1.3 UCR Modeling Center Hardware ................................................................................ 40 4.1.4 Backup Procedures....................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Sources for Data Used in Modeling........................................................................................ 42

5.0 EMISSIONS MODELING................................................................................................... 42 5.1. Quality Assurance Components of Emissions Modeling ...................................................... 44 5.1.1 Modeling QA ............................................................................................................... 44 5.1.2 System QA ................................................................................................................ ... 44 5.1.3 Gatekeeping and Outside Review................................................................................ 44

5.1.4 Documentation............................................................................................................ . 45 5.2 Implementation of the QA System ......................................................................................... 45 5.2.1 The Emissions QA Team ............................................................................................. 45

6.0 METEOROLOGICAL MODELING ................................................................................. 48

7.0 CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM........................................................................................... 48 7.1 CMAQ Overview.............................................................................................................. ...... 49 7.2 CMAQ Configuration for Phase II Modeling......................................................................... 50

7.3 Alternative Models.................................................................................................................. 50

7.3.1 CAMx Overview.......................................................................................................... 52 7.3.2 CAMx Configuration for Phase II Modeling............................................................... 54

8.0 ASSESSMENTS AND OVERSIGHT................................................................................. 55 8.1 Assessment Responsibilities ................................................................................................... 55 8.2 Assessment Types and Usage ................................................................................................. 55

8.3 Assessment Criteria ........................................................................................................ ........ 569.0 REFERENCES...................................................................................................................... 56

Figures

Figure 2-1a. Data flow and quality assurance steps in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling ....................................................................12 Figure 2-1b. Data flow and quality assurance steps in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling ....................................................................13 Figure 3-1. VISTAS Emissions and Air Qual ity Modeling Project Organizational Chart ......33 Figure 5-1. Flow Diagram of Major SMOKE Processing Steps ..............................................43 Figure 5-2. Diagram of VISTAS Modeli ng Team Approach to SMOKE Modeling ...............47

Tables

Table 2-1. Model performance goals used in Phase I to help inte rpret modeling results .......11 Table 2-2. Phase I Task 1 Project Management task deliverables and due dates ...................15 Table 2-3. Phase I Task 2 Modeling Plan task deliverables and due dates.............................15

Table 2-4. Phase I Task 3 Phase I Acquisition and Development of Model

Databases task deliverables and due dates.............................................................17 Table 2-5. Phase I Task 4 Develop Optim al VISTAS Modeling Configuration task

deliverables and due dates .....................................................................................18 Table 2-6. Phase I Task 6 Phase II Modeling Protocol task deliverables and due dates ........19 Table 2-7. Phase I Task 6 Develop We bsite task deliverables and due dates.........................19 Table 2-8. Phase II Task 1 Project Mana gement task deliverables and due dates..................21

Table 2-9. Phase II Task 2 GEOS-C HEM Boundary Condition Analysis

task deliverables and due dates..............................................................................21 Table 2-10. Phase II Task 3 2002 Data Preparation and Model Inputs

task deliverables and due dates..............................................................................25 Table 2-11. Phase II Task 4 2002 CMAQ Modeling task deliverables and due dates..............28 Table 2-12. Phase II Task 6 Data Manage ment task deliverables and due dates......................30 Table 2-13. Phase II Task 7 CB4/SAPRC Sensitivity modeling task

deliverables and due dates .....................................................................................31

Table 2-14. Phase II Task 10 Phase I Journal Article task deliverables and due dates.............31 Table 2-15. Phase II Task 13 2002 GEOS-CHEM Boundary Condition Processing task deliverables and due dates............................................................32 Table 3-1. VISTAS Phase II Emissions and Air Quality Modeling project participants and contacts............................................................................34

Table 3-2. VISTAS listservs ma intained by the Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team...................................................................................38Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 1 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

1.0 INTRODUCTION

This Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) de scribes the quality mana gement functions and activities performed by the Visibi lity Improvements for States and Tribal Associations in the Southeast (VISTAS) Phases I and II Emissi ons and Air Quality Modeling performed by ENVIRON International Corp oration (Prime Contracto r), Alpine Geophysics, LLC (Subcontractor) and the University of California at Riverside Co llege of Engineering – Center for Environmental Research and Technology (UCR/CE-CERT; Subcontractor).

VISTAS is one of five Regiona l Planning Organizations (RPOs) that have responsibility for coordinating development of State Implementation Plans (SIPs) and Tribal Implementation Plans (TIPs) in selected areas of the U.S. to address the requirements of the Regional Haze Rule (RHR) visibility SIPs/TIPs due in 2007/2008. VISTAS modeling results will also likely form the regional component for 8-hour ozone and fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) SIPs/TIPs that are also expected to be due in 2007/2008. The VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team is comprised of staff from ENVIRON Internati onal Corporation (ENVIRO N), Alpine Geophysics, LLC (Alpine) and the University of Californi a, Riverside (UCR). The ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR Team performs the emissions and air quality mode ling simulations for states and tribes within the VISTAS region, providing analytical results used in developing implementation plans under the EPA Regional Haze Rule.

The quality assurance approach utilized herein is generally based on the national consensus standard (ANSI/ASQC, 1994). This standard desc ribes the necessary management and technical elements for developing and implementing a quality system. It recommends a tiered approach to the design of the specific quality system used in each of the organization’s efforts. This approach has been adopted by the ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR T eam and is documented in the VISTAS Phase I and II Modeling Protocols (ENVIRON, 2003; 2004a ) and in UCR’s Quality Management Plan (QMP; UCR, 2003). The VISTAS Modeling Protocols and UCR’s QMP formed the basis for

much of the content in this VISTAS Em issions and Air Quality Modeling QAPP.

This QAPP was prepared in accordance with th e EPA guidelines for quality assurance project plans for modeling (EPA, 2002), for QAPPs (EPA , 2001), and the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) Quality Handbook for modeling projects (NARSTO, 1998). The EPA and NARSTO guidance doc uments were developed particularly for modeling projects, which have different quality assurance concerns than environmental monitoring data collection projects . The work performed in this project involves modeling at the basic research level and for regulatory/policy ap plications. In order to utilize model outputs for these purposes, it must be established that each model is scientif ically sound, robust, and defensible. This is accomplished by following a pr oject planning process that incorporates the following elements as described in the EPA guidance document for modeling:

• A systematic planning process including identification of assessments and related performance criteria; • Peer reviewed theory and equations;Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 2 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

• A carefully designed life-cycle devel opment process that minimizes errors; • Documentation of any changes from original plans; • Clear documentation of assumptions, theory , and parameterization that is detailed enough so others can under stand the model output; • Input data and parameters that are accurate and appropriate for the problem; and • Output data that can be used to help inform decision making.

The purpose of this QAPP is to establish and en courage a continuous improvement process that will result in clearly defined data qual ity objectives, documentation, procedures, and requirements for QA benchmarks and reports. A rigorous quality system will assist in ensuring that the quality of the project products are known, defensible, and meet the user’s data quality objectives. This system will also enable the modeling team to systematically plan to

accommodate the additional work that will be required to ensure high-quality results.

1.1 Problem Definition

The 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act and the 1999 U.S. EPA Regional Haze Rule establishes special goals for visibility in 156 na tional parks, wilderness areas, and international parks. Through these amendments, Congress set a national goal for visibility as “the prevention of any future, and the remedying of any existing, impairment of vi sibility in mandatory Class I Federal areas which impairment results from manmade air pollution” (40 CFR 51.300). States are required to develop State Implementation Plan s (SIPs) to attain visi bility standards, and Tribes also may opt to assume responsibility for visibility programs under 40 CFR Part 49 by developing Tribal Implementa tion Plans (TIPs). States, a nd potentially Tribes, in the Southeastern US are required to submit visibilit y SIPs under Section 308 of the Regional Haze Rule (RHR).

Through the Southeastern States Air Reso urce Managers (SESARM), the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) has implemented a regional air quality planning process to provide the necessary technical and policy tools needed by states and tribes to comply with the Section 308 of the RHR re quirements. As part of this effort, VISTAS has funded modeling studies to support the development of SIPs and TIPs. In March 2003, VISTAS contracted with ENVIR ON International Corporation, with Alpine Geophysics, LLC (Alpine) and Univer sity of California at Riversid e (UCR) as Subcontractors, to perform Emissions and Air Quality Modeling.

The results of the modeling studies performed by VISTAS will help determine the proper mitigation measures that will be necessary to comply with Section 308 of the RHR.

2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION

2.1 Background

The VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team performs regional haze analyses by operating regional scale, three-dimensional air quality models that simulate the emissions,Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 3 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

chemical transformations, and tr ansport of gaseous and partic ulate matter (PM) species and consequently effects on visibility in Class I Areas in the southeastern U.S. A key element of this work includes the integration of emissions inventories and m odels with regional transport models. The general services provided by the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team include, but are not limited to:

• Emissions processing and modeling; • Air quality and visibili ty modeling simulations; • Analysis, display, and repor ting of modeling results; and • Storage/quality assurance of th e modeling input and output files.

2.2 VISTAS Two-Phased Approach

The VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling ac tivities are being performed in two Phases. Phase I, which occurred primarily during the 2003 calendar year, consisted of emissions and regional haze modeling for three episodes to id entify the optimal model configuration(s) for simulating regional haze in the southeastern US. Phase II, initiated in 200 4, consists of operating the emissions and air quality models for the 2 002 calendar year to deve lop the regional haze modeling databases needed to a ddress the requirements of the Section 308 RHR SIPs and TIPs.

2.2.1 VISTAS Phase I

The objective of VISTAS Phase I was to determ ine the optimal modeling configuration for use in the subsequent Phase II visibility assessment. Accordingly, Phase I entailed a comprehensive

literature review of recent rele vant visibility studies usi ng various photochemical/aerosol modeling platforms in order to assess and identif y appropriate model configurations, data bases, and model testing methodologies that were appr opriate for use in conducting the VISTAS Phase I emissions and PM modeling assessment. Key elements of Phase I included:

3⁄4 Review all relevant air quality model simula tions that have been completed related to regional haze and PM 2.5 modeling and document the relevant sensitivity analyses, model configuration testing, and performance evaluations that have been performed (ENVIRON, 2003b);

3⁄4 Review the current science in regiona l emissions modeling (e.g., EPS, EMS and SMOKE) and PM air quality modeling (e.g., CMAQ, CMAQ-MADRID, CMAQ-AIM, REMSAD, UAM-V/PM, CAMx4 and PMCAMx) to determine the most appropriate model(s) for use by VISTAS (ENVIRON, 2003b);

3⁄4 Review available ambient data for eval uating one-atmosphere PM/ozone models (ENVIRON, 2003c);Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 4 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

3⁄4 Develop and implement a plan or Modeling Protocol for testing and evaluating alternative science configurat ions of the recommended Phas e I model(s) and document the results (ENVIRON, 2003a); and

3⁄4 Prepare a Task 6 report pr escribing the model set-up, data base development, performance testing, and control strategy eval uation procedures to be implemented in VISTAS Phase II (ENVIRON, 2004a).

VISTAS formed three standing workgroups to plan and direct the pr oject. These included: (a) the Technical Analysis (emissions and modeling) Wo rkgroup; (b) the Data (monitoring) Workgroup; and (c) the Planning Workgroup. Under Phase I, the VISTAS Technical Analysis Workgroup (TAWG) managed the comprehensive model conf iguration testing program aimed, as noted above, at evaluating the capabilities of current state-of-science regional emissions, prognostic meteorological and PM/visibility models. The resultant modeling system (models and databases)

identified and tested in Phase I were intended to be applied in Phase II (discussed below) following the procedures set forth in the Phas e II Modeling Protocol (ENVIRON, 2004a).

For the meteorological component of the Phas e I modeling, SESARM contracted with Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems (BAMS) to apply the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) in multiple configurations and to evaluate its performance against surface and aloft meteorological observations (Ole rud, 2003a-f). The emissions modeling component of VISTAS Phase I was carried out by the research team of ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR w ith staff at Alpine Geophysics taking the lead role in setting up, tes ting, and applying the emissions modeling system. The air quality modeling compone nt was performed by the team at the ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR modeling cente rs. A dominant theme during Phase I was the exchange of modeling codes, databases, a nd evaluation software between th e three modeling centers as the air quality modeling was carried out.

2.2.2 VISTAS Phase II

The Phase II modeling includes annual PM/regiona l haze simulations plus potentially additional shorter duration episodes. After detailed performance testing, the modeling system will then be exercised with a variety of emi ssions control scenarios aimed at enabling VISTAS to assess the effects of future year emission control strategies on visibility and other air quality issues. The modeling system will also allow VISTAS to track reasonable progress toward regional haze goals. More specifically, the VISTAS Phase II program will focus on the use of the CMAQ modeling system for calendar year 2002 over the sa me 36/12 km horizontal grid system used in Phase I. A potentially large number of annua l (and episodic) model simulations will be performed; the list below reflects current plans:

3⁄4 2002 Initial Annual Run

. The initial annual model si mulations and performance evaluations using the 2002 inventory for VI STAS and non-VISTAS states, Canada and Mexico. Multiple iterations of the 2002 annual simulation will be required to confirm the appropriateness of the model science configur ation(s) recommended by the Phase I work, to evaluate updates to the model and mode l inputs and to refine model performance.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 5 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

3⁄4 2002 Revised Annual Run

. A subsequent annual 2002 simu lation using revised 2002 modeling inventory for VISTAS and non-VI STAS states, Canada and Mexico. The primary objective of this run is model performance demonstration using updated emissions inventories and best science model configurations. Additional sensitivity tests will be conducted using the revised base case year annual run.

3⁄4 2002 Annual Run with “Typical Year” EGU/Fire Inventory. An annual 2002 simulation representing the 2000-2004 baseline period for EGU and fire emissions and using 2002 revised inventory for all other source sectors. The primary objective of this inventory is to provide the base line modele d air quality condition against which future year modeling runs will be compared to develop relative reduction factors for each pollutant species.

3⁄4 Future Year Annual Runs. Future year simulations involving a base case inventory of typical EGU and fire emissions for VISTAS-s elected future period. Additional future year inventories may also be modeled. The obj ective of these future year model runs is

to establish the modeled air quality basis against which th e effectiveness of emissions control strategies will be evaluated.

3⁄4 Future Year Emission Control Strategies. Prescription of the future year emissions control strategies to be performed later in Phase II (e.g., 2005) will be defined after the foregoing simulations and analyses have been completed. A combination of annual and episodic runs is anticipated.

Closely integrated with the a nnual (and possibly episodic) meteorological, emissions and air quality modeling will be ongoing project manageme nt, technical review, and quality assurance activities performed under the guidance of the VISTAS Contra cting Officer and the TAWG. The modeling team members will participate w ith VISTAS management in regular monthly conference calls, as well as ad hoc topical conf erence calls as needed, and will attend periodic meetings with the TAWG members throughout Phase II.

Complementing the data acqui sition, modeling input developm ent activities, and project management activities, four other Phase II activi ties will be performed, consistent with the Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP):

2.2.2.1 Data Gatekeepers

The VISTAS Phase II emissions and air quality modeling team are receiving emissions, meteorological and air quality data from other VISTAS contractors or other sources. As a first line of QA, we have defined a Gatekeeper func tion to assure the data have been received correctly, the quality of the data has been eval uated, and that the data received have been documented. Separate air quality, meteorologi cal and emissions Gatekeepers have been

identified whose roles are defined below. In addition, a Data Management Gatekeeper has been defined who will post data, reports and results to the project website and archive all key data generated in the project.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 6 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

3⁄4 Air Quality Data Gatekeeper . Obtain air quality da ta as appropriate for model input development and model perf ormance evaluation and assure that the quality of all air quality data obta ined are consistent with the approved QAPP. Provide documentation of eval uation and generate IC/BC inputs for CMAQ for all modeling runs.

3⁄4 Meteorological Gatekeeper . Obtain meteorological data, as MM5 or MCIP files, as appropriate for annual 2002 m odeling runs and other episode periods and perform data quality checks as approved in the QAPP, together with appropriate documentation of model performance evaluation activities.

3⁄4 Emissions Gatekeeper. Obtain emissions inventory data necessary to support annual 2002 and future year modeling and recommend source of

emissions data to be used for Canada and Mexico. Assure quality of all

emissions data received are consistent with the approved QAPP, and develop all emissions modeling files to suppor t modeling runs for 2002. Develop the chemical speciation files and temporal a nd spatial allocation files necessary to convert annual inventories into hourly and daily emissions modeling files, as appropriate. Develop all emissions m odeling files for non-VISTAS states to support modeling runs for future year ba se case and emissions strategies as defined by VISTAS.

3⁄4 Data Management Gatekeeper : Maintain the VISTAS Modeling Website including posting modeling input and out put files, reports, interpretation of results, and other documents as requested by VISTAS to support all Phase II tasks. This includes, for example, th e storage of model inputs and outputs for annual (and episodic) runs and the transfer (via fire wi re or alternative media) of electronic files to VISTAS states, other regional planning organizations, EPA, other contractors, and stakeholders.

2.2.2.2 Emissions QA/QC

Emissions Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Contro l (QC) are the single most critical steps in performing air quality modeling studies. B ecause emissions processing is tedious, time consuming and involves complex manipulation of ma ny different types of large data sets, errors are frequently made in emissions processing and, if rigorous QA measures are not in place, these errors may remain undetected. In Phase II we will continue with the multistep emissions QA/QC approach applied in the Phase I modeling. Th is includes the initial emissions QA/QC by the Emissions Gatekeeper described above, as well as QA/AC by the Emissions Modeler during the processing of emissions and then additional QA/QC by the air quality modeler of the processed model ready emission files. This multistep process with three separate groups involved in the QA/QC of the emissions is designed to detect a nd correct errors prior to the air quality model

simulations.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 7 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

Emissions QA/QC performed as part of the emissions modeling includes:

EMS and EPA Input Screenin g Error Checking Algorithms : Although the SMOKE

emissions model will be used for emissions processing, some of the more advanced EMS input error checking algorithms will be used to screen th e data and identify potential emission input errors. Additionally, EPA has issued a revised stack QA and augmentation procedures memorandum that will be used to identify and augment any outlying stacks.

SMOKE Error Messages : SMOKE provides various cautionary or warning messages during the emissions processing. We will redi rect the SMOKE output to log files and review the log files for serious error message s. An archive of the log files will be maintained so that the error messages can be reviewed at a later date if necessary.

SMOKE Emissions Summaries : We will use QA functions built into the SMOKE processing system to provide summaries of pr ocessed emissions as daily totals according to species, source category and county a nd state boundaries. These summaries will then be compared with summary data prepared fo r the pre-processed emissions, e.g., state and county totals for emissions from the augmented emissions data.

Once the CMAQ-ready emission inputs have b een prepared, we will perform additional emissions QA/QC as follows:

Spatial Summary : We will sum the emissions for all layers and for all 24 hours that is used to prepare a PAVE plot showing the da ily total emissions spa tial distribution. For a 20 day simulation this produces approximate ly 20 days x 20 species x 5 emissions categories = 2,000 plots. In our base case simula tions these plots will be presented as tons per day. The objective of this step is to identify errors in spatial distribution of emissions.

Vertical Profile : For point sources the emissions tota l for each layer will be summed and plotted to show the vertical distribution of emissions. These plots show the emissions on the x-axis for each model layer on the y-axis . The objective of this step is to identify possible errors in vertical distribution of emissions.

Short Term Temporal Summary : The total domain emissions for each hour will be accumulated and time series plots prepared th at display the diurna l variation in total hourly emissions. The objective of this step is to identify errors in temporal profiles.

Long Term Temporal Summary : The total domain emissions for each day will be accumulated and displayed as time series plots that show the daily total emissions across

the domain as a function of time. The objective of this step is to identify particular days for which emissions appear to be inconsiste nt with other days fo r no reason (e.g., not a weekend) and compare ag ainst the general trend.

Control Strategy Spatial Displays : Spatial summary plots of the daily total emissions differences between a control strategy and base case emissions scenarios will be generated. These plots can be used to im mediately identify a problem in a controlQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 8 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

strategy. For example, if a VISTAS state’s SO 2 control strategy is being analyzed and there are changes in emissions for other pollutants or for SO 2 outside of the VISTAS states problems in emissions processing can be identified prior to the air quality model

simulation.

2.2.2.3 Meteorology QA/QC

The VISTAS meteorological modeling contractor (BAMS) will have primary responsibility in the QA/QC of the MM5 meteorological fields. However, the emissions and air quality modeling team will also perform some QA/QC of the meteorological data to assure that it has transferred correctly, to obtain an assessment of the quality of the data and to assist in the interpretation of the air quality modeling results.

The VISTAS Phase II Meteorological Gate keeper will perform the following:

3⁄4 Analyze the MM5 data to assure it has been transferred correctly.

3⁄4 Evaluate the MM5 using METSTAT and the surface meteorological network.

3⁄4 Evaluate upper-air MM5 meteorological es timates by comparison them to upper-air observations and satellite images.

3⁄4 Compare the VISTAS 2002 MM5 simulati on with the one generated by WRAP.

3⁄4 Generate the CMAQ-ready meteorological inputs using the MCIP2.2 processor.

2.2.2.4 Air Quality Modeling QA/QC

Key aspects of QA for the CMAQ input a nd output data include the following:

3⁄4 Verification that correct configuration and science options are us ed in compiling and running each model of the in the CMAQ m odeling system, where these include the MCIP, JPROC, ICON, BCOM and the CCTM.

3⁄4 Verification that correct i nput data sets are used when running each model.

3⁄4 Evaluation of CCTM results to verify that model output is reas onable and consistent with general expectations.

3⁄4 Processing of ambient monitoring data for use in the model performance evaluation.

3⁄4 Evaluation of the CCTM results ag ainst concurrent observations.

3⁄4 Backup and archiving of cr itical model input data.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 9 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

The most critical element for CMAQ simulati ons is the QA/QC of the meteorological and emissions input files, which is discussed above. The major QA issue specifi cally associated with the air quality model simulations is verification that the correct science options were specified in

the model itself and that the co rrect input files were used wh en running the model. For the CMAQ model we employ a system of naming conve ntions using environment variables in the compile and run scripts that guarantee that correc t inputs and science opti ons are used. We also employ a redundant naming system so that the na mes of key science opt ions or inputs are included in the name of the CMAQ executable progr am, in the name of the CMAQ output files, and in the name of the directory in which the fi les are located. This is accomplished by using the

environment variables in the scri pts to specify the names and locations of key input files.

A second key QA procedure is to never “recycle” run scripts, i. e., we always preserve the original runs scripts and direct ory structure that were used in performing a model simulation.

We will also perform a post-processing QA of th e CMAQ output files similar to that described for the emissions processing. We will generate anim ated gif files using PAVE that can be viewed to search for unexpected patterns in the CMAQ output files. In the case of model sensitivity studies, the animated gifs will be prepared as difference plots for the sensitivity case minus the base case. Often, errors in the emissions inputs ca n be discovered by viewing the animated GIFs. Finally, we will produce 24 hour average plots for each day of the CMAQ simulations. This provides a summary that can be useful for quickly comparing various model simulations.

2.2.2.5 Overview of Data Flow and Quality Assurance Process

Figure 2-1 displays an overview of the data flow and quality a ssurance process in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling study. Th e VISTAS Modeling Team receives different types of data from various VISTAS contractors and other sources that ha ve performed their own Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC). Whenever data are received by the Modeling Team, it is first subjected to a QA check by a Gatekeeper who a ssess the accuracy and quality of the data and prepares a summary pres entation on the QA check. Figure 2-1a lists the Gatekeepers in the Modeling Team for emissions, boundary conditions, meteorological, ozone column (TOMS) and air quality data. If the Ga tekeeper identifies any problems with the data, the provider of the data is contacted and aske d to correct the data. Once the Gatekeeper has conducted a QA check of the data it is passed on to the modeler who performs their QA of the data. The data are then used in the modeling an d resultant output (e.g., m odel-ready emissions or meteorological files) are then subjected to anothe r round of QA to assure the integrity of the data

is retained.

Once the model-ready inputs have been developed and subjected to QA/QC, the models (e.g., CMAQ and/or CAMx) are applied using Base Case emissions and the modeling results subjected to a model performance evaluation. The mode l performance evaluation (MPE) represents an extensive QA effort and is the most time c onsuming component of the study. EPA has developed draft guidance for eval uating regional PM and haze mode ls that includes performance goals (EPA, 2001). In addition, the Modeling team has adapted EPA MPE approaches and goals for 1-hour (EPA, 1991) and 8-hour (EPA, 1999) ozone modeling. The VISTAS Modeling Team performs the MPE/QA process using as many different tools and analysis as possible in order toQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 10 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

fully understand the accuracy and reliability of th e model simulation. As seen in Figure 2-1b, the MPE process in VISTAS is a multistep process using several different techniques:

UCR Analysis Tools : The University of California at Riverside (UCR) Analysis Tools were used extensively in Ph ase I and are run on a Linux pl atform separately for each network. Graphics are automatically genera ted using gnuplot and the software generates the following:

• Tabular statistical measures;

• Time Series Plots; and

• Scatter Plots by allsite_allday, al lday_onesite and allsite_oneday.

MAPS Analysis Tools : Alpine Geophysics (Alpine) has a MAPS Analysis Tool that also

runs under Linux and is based on Fortran an d NCAR Graphics. It was originally developed for evaluating ozone models and ha s been extended to treat PM species as well. In addition to calculating similar statis tics, scatter plots and time series plots as the UCR Analysis Tools, it also can generate spatially averaged time series plots of concentrations, bias and error, performs anal ysis of peak concentr ations and includes a Flying Data Grabber (FDB) for comparing modeling results with aircraft data.

ENVIRON Analysis Tools : ENVIRON has developed speci alized evaluation tools to analyze visibility model performance for the Best and Worst 20% visibility days that are used in visibility projections for the Section 308 SIPs/TIPs. ENVIRON has also developed “Soccer Plots” that displays m odel performance across networks, episodes, species, models and sensitivity tests and compare them with performance goals.

GA DNR Analysis Plots : Dr. James Boylan of the Georgia Department of Natural Resources has extended the concept in EPA’s draft PM fine particul ate and regional haze modeling guidance that model pe rformance for species that make up a major contribution to visibility impairment be subjected to more stringent goals than species that are minor contributors by developing concentration- dependent performance goals and “Bugle Plots” to display them.

The evaluation of the VISTAS Ph ase II initial 2002 CMAQ Base Case simulation used each of the analysis tools listed above demonstrating their descriptive and co mplimentary nature.

The issue of model performance goals for PM speci es is an area of ongoing research and debate. For ozone modeling, EPA has estab lished performance goals for 1- hour ozone normalized mean bias and gross error of # ± 15% and # 35%, respectively (EPA, 1991). EP A’s draft fine particulate modeling guidance notes that performance goals for ozone shoul d be viewed as upper bounds of model performance, that PM models may not be able to always achieve and we should demand better model performance for PM components that make up a larger fraction of the PM mass than those that are minor contributors (EPA, 2001). Measuring PM species is not as precise as ozone monitoring. In fact, the differences in measurement tec hniques for some species likely exceed the more stringent perfor mance goals, such as those for ozone. For example, recent comparisons of the PM species measurements using the IMPROVE and STN measurementQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 11 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 17, 2004

technologies found differences of approximately " 20% (SO 4 ) to " 50% (EC) (Solomon et al., 2004).

In the VISTAS 2002 CMAQ Base Case modeling, we have adopted three levels of model performance goals for bias and gross error as listed in Table 2-1 that are used to help evaluate model performance. Note that we are not sugge sting that these performa nce goals be generally adopted or that they are the most appropriate goals to use. Rath er, we are just using them to frame and put the PM model performance into context and to facilitate model performance intercomparison across episodes, species, models and sensitivity tests.

As noted in EPA’s draft PM modeling guidan ce, less abundant PM species should have less stringent performance goals. Accordingly, we are also using performance goals that are a continuous function of average observed concentr ations proposed by Dr. James Boylan at the Georgia Department of Natural Resour ces that have the following features:

• Asymptotically approaching proposed performan ce goals or criteria when the mean of the observed concentrations are greater than 2.5 ug/m 3

.

• Approaching 200% error and " 200% bias when the mean of the observed concentrations are extremely small.

Dr. Boylan uses bias/error goals and criteria of ± 30%/50% and ± 60%/75% and plots bias and error as a function of average observed concentrations. As th e mean observed concentration approaches zero the bias performan ce goal and criteria flare out to ± 200% creating a horn shape, hence the name “Bugle Plots”.

Table 2-1. Model performance goals used in Phas e I to help interpret modeling results.

Fractional

Bias Fractional

Error Comment

#" 15% # 35% Ozone model performance goal 8 for which PM model performance would be considered good.

#" 30% # 50% A level of model performance that we would hope each PM species could meet

#" 60% # 75% At or above this level of pe rformance indicates fundamental problems with the modeling system.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft)Page 12 of 62VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality ModelingRevision 0ENVIRON International CorporationNovember 12, 2004Figure 2-1a.Data flow and quality assurance steps in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft)Page 13 of 62VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality ModelingRevision 0ENVIRON International CorporationNovember 12, 2004Figure 2-1b.Concluded.Data flow and quality assurance steps in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 14 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

2.3 VISTAS Phase I and II Modeling Protocols

As recommended in EPA’s draft regional ha ze modeling guidance (E PA, 2001), the VISTAS Phase I and II modeling efforts were initiated by developing Modeling Prot ocols that described the procedures to be used to conduct, quality assure and quality control (QA/QC), evaluate and use the modeling results (ENVIRON, 2003a; ENVIRON, 2004a). These Modeling Protocols

were reviewed and commen ted on by the VISTAS TAWG and others and are updated accordingly.

2.4 VISTAS Phase I Activities

The VISTAS Phase I Emissions and Air Quality Modeling work was carried out mainly during

2003 with some final deliverable s provided in early 2004. The Phase I activities formed the basis for the Phase II modeling and was the foundation of the Phase II quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC).

2.4.1 Phase I Task 1: Project Management

There are three aspects of Project Management that were perfor med under this task: (a) Project Management of the project’s resources and t echnical progress keeping VISTAS informed of progress; (b) Technical Management of th e day-to-day technical activities of the ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR Team keeping clear lin es of communication, and (c) Communication Management of the data flow and expecta tions among the other VISTAS contractors.

Project Management : The Project Manager, Co-Principal Investigators (Co-PIs), and Task Managers had frequent communi cations with the VISTAS tech nical and project management group through regular conference ca lls, e-mails and meetings as needed. The ENVIRON, Alpine and UCR Modeling Centers were headed by each of the three Co-PIs (Ralph Morris, T.W. Tesche and Gail Tonnesen, respectively) with clear lines of communication.

Technical Management : The three Co-PIs are responsible fo r the management of the technical work within each of their respec tive research groups. With res ponsibility comes accountability.

Communication Management : Key to the communications manage ment will be weekly internal conference calls among the three Co-Principal Investigators and the regular conference calls

between the three Co-PIs and the VISTAS TAWG and other VISTAS contractors. When data are received from VISTAS contractors, the Modeling Team’s meteorological or emissions Gatekeeper subjected the data to an extensive QA. Any problems identified will be reported to the three Co-PIs who will then relay immediatel y that information to the VISTAS TAWG and

the relevant contractor with the issue addressed in a conference call so that it can be resolved.

List servers related to emissi ons, meteorology, and modeling issues were set up for prompt communication among the Team, VISTAS, a nd other VISTAS contractors.

Deliverables under this task were continuous proj ect management and conference calls, plus two project meetings held in Research Triangle Pa rk, North Carolina (see Table 2-2). The projectQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 15 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

meetings were attended by the three Co-PIs an d additional staff from the Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team.

Table 2-2. Phase I Task 1 Project Management task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date 1 VISTAS TAWG Modeling Me eting September 29-30, 2003 at the Solution Center in Research Triangle Park, North

Carolina 09/29-30/03

2 VISTAS TAWG Modeling Me eting February 12-13, 2004 in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 02/12-13/04

2.4.2 Phase I Task 2: Develop Model Configuration Evaluation Plan

The first activity under the VISTAS Phase I Emissions and Modeling Study was the development a detailed plan, or Modeling Protocol (ENVIRON, 2003a), outlining the data analysis procedures and statistical/graphical tools to be used in evaluating the core and alternative CMAQ configurations in Task 4. Th is plan identified the procedures used in producing internally consistent observational and modeling data se ts for individual particulate species and species groupings. Th e main purpose of this plan is to provide a consistent set of procedures to be used in the early portion of the Phase I activities when the various CMAQ model configurations are being tested. The dr aft plan was submitted to VISTAS TAWG who provided comments that were inco rporated in the final Phase I modeling plan (see Table 2-3).

Table 2-3. Phase I Task 2 Phase I Modeling Pl an task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date 1 Draft Report “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 2 Report: Recommend ed Model Configurations and Evaluation Methodology For Phase I Modeling” 06/03/03

2 Revised Draft Report “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 2 Report: Recommended Model Configurations and Evaluation Methodology For Phase I Modeling” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vi stas/reports/VISTAS_Task2- REPORT.pdf 08/04/03

2.4.3 Phase I Task 3: Acquisition and Development of Modeling Data Bases

Under this task we assembled the databases need ed to operate and evaluate the CMAQ model for the three Phase I episodes.

Subtask 3a: Assemble/QA Air Quality Data. Under this Subtask we assembled a comprehensive

database of ambient measurements to evaluate model performance. As part of the WRAP model performance evaluation our team had previously assembled data from the CASTNet (weekly wetQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 16 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

and dry deposition of SO4, NO3, NH4, pH, base cat ions) and IMPROVE (daily fine particulate mass composition as SO4, NO3, NH4, OC, EC, and so ils). Additional processing of data was

needed to include ambient data from the SEARCH and STN networks in the analysis. Several

issues must be addressed to use these data to evaluate model performance. In many cases there is not a 1-to-1 correspondence to model species. Accordingly, formulas must be developed to correctly map the data to the model species (f or details, see the IMPROVE and CASTNET links at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/ambient/ambient.shtml . Moreover, model predictions are hourly while some ambient data are daily or weekly aver ages, so algorithms were developed to correctly treat averaging periods including correct repr esentation of the time zone used for each monitoring site. QA of ambient data is a key step ; we reviewed all data for reasonableness and completeness and flagged apparent outliers fo r exclusion from the model evaluation. We processed the AIRS data including O3, NOx and CO to convert it to the IO/API data format so

that it can be used with PAVE for visualization of model and ambient data. For long term modeling (monthly to annual) it is essential that th e QA’d ambient databa ses be designed to work with our model performance evaluation software. This will facilitate rapid model evaluation for multiple sensitivity simulations or repeats of base case simulations.

Subtask 3b: Assemble/QA Emissions Data. CMAQ emissions inputs we re prepared using data supplied by the VISTAS emissi ons contractors, the EPA NEI version 2 databases and the SMOKE emissions modeling system. The study team is currently working with the NEI formats and has developed the necessary QA tools to ma ke effective use of these data. The NEI database, while the best available national in ventory, must be examined for local modeling, particularly in point source locations and stack parameters. The QA tools developed as part of

the EMS-2001 are a useful ad junct to the tools currently available in SMOKE.

The study team has also developed a suite of tools designed to QA and evaluate episode specific emissions prior to inclusion into the modeling inventory. Since the magnitude of the dayspecific emissions for large stationary source is often significant in the modeling inventory, special attention is placed on the QA of these em issions data. The study team has processed the spatial surrogates and BELD-3/BEIS-3 database s over the Unified RPO grid under contract to the Midwest RPO. These data are currently u nder review and revision and the version most

current will be used.

Subtask 3c: Assemble/QA Meteorological Data. The meteorological model (MM5) output data was acquired from the VISTAS me teorological modeling contractor . While we recognize that the MM5 data will already have been validated by the meteorological modeling contractor, it has been our Team’s experience that an independent revi ew is both time and cost effective. As part of our quality assurance activi ties, a full operational model ev aluation was performed on the MM5 data sets. This operational evaluation covered surface and aloft wind direction, temperature, mixing ratio, and planetary boundar y layer depths on both a domain-wide and subregional basis. The technique s used will follow the model pe rformance protocol prepared for EPA for annual MM5 modeling (McNally and Tesche, 2002).

Table 2-4 summarizes the VISTAS Phase I Task 3 deliverables.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 17 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Table 2-4. Phase I Task 3 Phase I Acquisition a nd Development of M odel Databases task

deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due

Date 1 Draft Report “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 3a Report: Review and Assessment of Available Ambient Air Quality Data to Support Modeling and Model Performance Evaluation for the Three VISTAS Phase I Episodes” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas /reports/VISTAS_Task_3_072203.pdf 07/22/03

2 Draft Report “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 3b Report: CMAQ Emissions Invent ory Development and Emissions QA/QC Summary Report for Episodes 1, 2 and 3” Available at:

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/repor ts/VISTAS_subtask_3b_QA_report.pdf 09/25/03

3 Subtask 3c-1 Report: “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 3c-1 Report: MM5 Meteorology QA/QC Summary Report for Episode 1: 2-20 January 2002” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/reports/met_episode_1_report.pdf 09/10/03

4 Subtask 3c-2 Report: “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 3c-2 Report: MM5 Meteorology QA/QC Summary Report for Episode 2: 13-22 July 1999” Available at:

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/reports/met_episode_2_report.pdf 09/15/03

5 Subtask 3c-3 Report: “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 3c-3 Report: MM5 Meteorology QA/QC Summary Report for Episode 3: 11-27 July 2001” Available at:

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/reports/met_episode_3_report.pdf 09/16/03

2.4.4 Phase I Task 4: Develop Opti mal VISTAS Modeling Configuration

Under VISTAS Phase I Task 4, we developed plans for the initial testing and sensitivity modeling of the SMOKE and CMAQ modeling system s in order to identify the optimal model configurations) for simulating regional PM, ozone and visibility in the eastern US. We first reviewed and assessed recent relevant regional modeling studies from which we identified an initial configuration and list of sensitivity tests. We then performed the sensitivity tests to identify the optimal model configuration(s).

Subtask 4a: Recent Literature Review . Initiating Task 4 we perfor med a literature review to identify and critically evaluate recent releva nt fine particulate/regi onal haze modeling studies, field programs and related scientific investigations that shed light on: (a) the selection and evaluation of CMAQ model configur ation options, (b) the availabil ity and adequacy of gas-phase and PM data sets for model set up and performan ce testing, (c) the suitability of operational and diagnostic procedures for evaluating the pe rformance of CMAQ, and (d) any pertinent information of future year emissions control evaluations (ENVIRON, 2003b).

Subtask 4b: Recommend Initial SMOKE/CMAQ Configurations. Drawing from the Team’s experience with SMOKE and CMAQ, we identified a suite of initial model configurations to beQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 18 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

evaluated with the three test episodes. These alternative configurations included definition of: (a) vertical and horizontal grid s, (b) gas-phase chemistry mechanism, (c) secondary aerosol mechanisms, (d) advection algorithms, (e) diffusion algorithms, (f) cloud and surface removal processes, (g) numerical integration sche me(s), and so on (ENVIRON, 2003b).

Subtask 4c: Evaluate Approve d SMOKE/CMAQ Configurations. The ENVIRON, Alpine, and UCR team collaboratively evaluated the various model configurations recommended in Subtask 4b. These evaluations employed internally consis tent statistical and graphical procedures and display software (Morris et al., 2004a).

Subtask 4d: Perform Diagnostic/Sensitivity Experiments

. Paralleling and supporting Subtask 4c, the study team conducted a series of diagnostic/se nsitivity experiments aimed at identifying the most technically sound and relia ble chemistry, transport, rem oval, and numerical algorithms available (Morris et al., 2004a).

Subtask 4e: Recommend Optimal Model Configuration. The culmination of the literature review, CMAQ configuration testing and m odule sensitivity/diagnostic studies was the identification of a final, optimal configuration for the VISTAS m odeling platform to be used in Phase II (Morris et al., 2004a).

Subtask 4f: Technical Documentation . Thorough documentation was performed for all aspects of Task 4 (Morris et al., 2004a). In addition, many of the findings in this task were relevant to VISTAS and other RPO’s and warranted publicati on of the technical findings at scientific conferences or in journals (Morri s et al., 2004b,c,d; Te sche et al., 2004).

Table 2-5. Phase I Task 4 Develop Optimal VISTAS Modeling Configurati on task deliverables

and due dates.

Item Description Due

Date 1 “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling— Phase I Task 4a/b Report: Review of Model Sensitivity Simulations and Recommendations of Initial CMAQ Model Configurations and Sens itivity Tests” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/r eports/VISTAS_Task4a_Report.pdf 07/25/03

2 Final Report “VISTAS Emissions and Air Qu ality Modeling— Phase I Task 4cd Report: Model Performance Evaluation and Model Sensitivity Tests for Three Phase I Episodes” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/repor ts/Final_Phase1/VISTAS_Task4cd_FinalRe port_ExcSum-Sec3_only.pdf 09/07/04

2.4.5 Phase I Task 6: Phase II Modeling Protocol

The VISTAS Phase II Modeling Protocol describes in detail the work to be performed and the specific quality assurance (QA) procedures to be used in performing, evaluating, and archiving the annual model simulations performed in Phase II. Particular emphasis in the protocol was given to: (a) model configurations, (b) specific science issues to be addressed, (c) model improvements, (d) modelQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 19 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

input preparation, (e) model applications (base year, future year, and strategies), (f) model evaluation and sensitivity analyses, (g) documentation, (h) data transfer, backup and archiving, and (i) schedule and deliverables. As shown in Table 2-6, under this task a First Draft Modeling Protocol was prepared and submitted to the VISTAS TAWG for review and comment. Based on these comments a Revised First Draft Modeling Protocol was prepared and distributed to the entire group for review

and comment.

Table 2-6. Phase I Task 6 Phase II Modeling Protocol task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date 1 First Draft Report “VISTAS Emis sions and Air Quality Modeling — Phase I Task 6 Report: Modeling Pr otocol for the VISTAS Phase II Regional Haze Modeling ” 03/03/04

2 Revised First Draft Report “VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling — Phase I Task 6 Report: Modeling Protocol for the VISTAS

Phase II Regional Haze Modeling .” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/re ports/VISTAS_PhaseII_Protocol_Mar12 _2004.pdf 03/12/04

2.4.6 Phase I Task 7: Website Development

We developed a technical web site that served as the primary means for distributing emissions and air quality modeling to the VISTAS TAWG. The website included model results, analyses, presentations and reports. We maintained 4 list-servs (all participants, general project management, emissions QA, and modeling results) for the VISTAS project that can be accessed from the website that provides a permanent archiv e for all email communicat ions for the project. Separate list-servs provides better organization of communicat ions and allow for detailed discussions of specific topi cs such as emissions QA.

Table 2-7. Phase I Task 6 Develop Website task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date

1 VISTAS Phase I Emissions a nd Air Quality Modeling Project

Website: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/index.shtml 2003-2004

2.5 VISTAS Phase II Activities

Below we discuss the project and QA activities for the currently planned VISTAS Phase II Modeling work effort.

2.5.1 Phase II Task 1: Project Management

The objective of this task is to manage project activities, participate in conference calls, attend 3 VISTAS meetings in the southeastern United St ates (US), project management with VISTAS contacts, subcontractor manageme nt and general oversight, and overall quality assurance.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 20 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

The VISTAS Phase II manageme nt structure for Emissions a nd Air Quality Modeling is the same as used in Phase I with Ralph Morris of ENVIRON serving as Pr oject Manager and Ralph Morris, T.W. Tesche and Gail Tonnesen serving as Co-Principal Inves tigators (Co-PIs) and managing the activities in each of the E NVIRON, Alpine and U CR modeling centers, respectively. Under this task we are performing all management activities for the VISTAS Phase II modeling study, including:

• Attendance of two scientists of the ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR Team at 3 VISTAS meetings to be held in the southeastern US.

• Participation in scheduled conference calls to be held approximately once per month as well as expected ad hoc conference calls to be held as needed.

• Refine Draft Phase II annual modeling prot ocol due early March 2004. Final initial Phase II annual modeling protocol incorpora ting review comments as directed by

Contract Officer due two w eeks after direction received . The modeling protocol follows EPA guidance and includes the specific task descriptions, data quality and assurance plan, and model performance ev aluation plan for VISTAS Phase II 2004

work. The VISTAS Phase II modeling protocol is a liv ing document that will be updated as tasks are added to project work scope and to document revisions in the technical approach.

• Develop and refine the Scope of Work and conduct contract discussions with the VISTAS modeling team and the VISTAS technical and project representatives.

• Preparation of subcontract s, invoicing and payments.

• Internal project confer ence calls and discussions among the ENVIRON/Alpine/UCR project team.

• Develop and implement the Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP).

• Model performance evaluation report usi ng revised 2002 invent ories. Report of model response to changes in inventory from 2002 revised to 2002 base year with “typical” EGU and fire.

• Executive Summary report summarizing ke y findings and resu lts from the task

summary reports.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 21 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Table 2-8. Phase II Task 1 Project Management task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date 1 Second Draft Report “VISTAS Emi ssions and Air Quality Modeling — Phase I Task 6 Report: Modeling Prot ocol for the VISTAS Phase II Regional Haze Modeling.” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vista s2/reports/vistasII_Final_Protocol_05_1 0_2004.pdf 05/06/04

2 Conference Calls with VISTAS amo ng Modeling Team and with TAWG 2004-2005 3 National Inter-RPO Modeling Meeti ng in Denver, Colorado May 25-26,

2004 05/25-26/04

4 VISTAS TAWG Meeting in Atlanta, Georgia September 22-23, 2004 09/22-23/04 5 VISTAS TAWG meeting to be determined (TBD) TBD 6 Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) November 2004 7 Draft VISTAS Phase II Executive Summary Report 12/31/04 8 Final VISTAS Phase II Executive Summary Report 01/15/05

2.5.2 Phase II Task 2: Develop IC/BCs for 2002 Annual Run

The objective of this task is to analyze the need for a high time resolu tion (e.g., 3-hourly) global climate model (e.g., GEOS-CHEM) output for ge nerating Boundary Conditions (BCs) for 2002 annual modeling of the 36 km national RPO grid.

Under this task we are recommending a source of initial and boundary conditions (IC/BC) for 2002 annual and 2003 episodic CMAQ modeling. We w ould analyze in more detail the VISTAS Phase I July 2001 episode CMAQ simulations using the BCs generated from GEOS-CHEM 2001 3-hour concentrations outputs. The CMAQ model performance and output for the July 2001 episode using BCs generated from GEOS-CHEM seasonal/monthly vs. 3-hour output performed under Phase I would be analyzed and compared with a run using the EPA CMAQ default BCs. This is followed by interaction with investigators at Harvard University and University of Houston to evaluate temporal and spatial variability between BC based on 3-hour average and monthly average GEOS-CHEM output s for 2001. Based on these results we would recommend whether GEOS-CHEM 2002 day-specifi c outputs are justifie d to capture daily variability in BC concentrations.

Table 2-9. Phase II Task 2 GEOS-CHEM Boundary Conditions Analysis task deliverables and due

dates.

Item Description Due Date 1 PowerPoint Presentation: “VISTAS Phase I and II Modeling Boundary Condition Sensitivity” pres ented at February 12-13, 2004 VISTAS Modeling Meeting in RTP, NC 02/12-13/04Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 22 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

2.5.3 Phase II Task 3: 2002 Data Preparation and Model Inputs

The development of the VISTAS Phase II 2002 annual CMAQ model inputs is being performed

in several Subtasks as follows.

2.5.3.1 Subtask 3a: Air Quality Data Gatekeeper

The objective of Subtask 3a is to acquire, proc ess and QA/QC air quality data, deposition data

and other data that can be used to evaluate CMAQ and other air quality models for the 2002 annual cycle and the 36 km national RPO grid with particular emphasis on the VISTAS southeastern US region.

Under this Subtask the Air Quality Gatekeep er would perform the following activities:

• Obtain air quality data as appropriate for model input development and model performance evaluation. At a minimum, the same data bases as used in Phase I should

be used in Phase II. • Identify if any special aircraft (or other) measurements are available within the VISTAS 12-km domain for the 2002 modeling year. • Assure quality of all air quality data obt ained, are consistent w ith the approved QA/QC plan.

• Provide documentation of evaluation. • Generate IC/BC inputs for CMAQ for all 2002 m odeling runs described in Task 4 below.

2.5.3.2 Subtask 3b: MM5 Meteorological Model Gatekeeper

The objectives of this Subtask is to acq uire the 2002 MM5 data from the VISTAS Meteorological Contractor (BAMS) and perf orm QA/QC, an indepe ndent evaluation, and process the data using MC IP for input into CMAQ.

The Meteorological Gatekeeper’s function for th e VISTAS Phase II 2002 MM5 modeling results would be the similar as was done in Phase I, only we would leverage off of the 2002 MM5 model evaluation infrastructure set up at E NVIRON for WRAP. The MM5 output would be acquired from BAMS and subjected to an initial quality check. A ny issues associated with the 2002 MM5 output would be reported immediately back to BAMS and VISTAS . After an initial quality check is performed, a more thorough QA/ QC and an independent evaluation would be conducted. Results would be compared with other 2002 MM5 simulations (e.g., WRAP). The CMAQ-ready meteorological inputs would also be generated under this subtask. The MM5 data would be provided in two installments of 8 months and 4 months, respectively.

2.5.3.3 Subtask 3c: Emissions Gatekeeper and Emissions Development for Non-VISTAS States, Canada, and Mexico

Under this Subtask we would coordinate activi ties with the VISTAS em issions contractor and perform initial QA/QC of emissions. We would also develop emissions for non-VISTAS States, Canada, and Mexico for the 2002 annual modeli ng period. The Emissions Gatekeeper wouldQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 23 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

coordinate activities with the VISTAS emissions c ontractors and technical a dvisors to assure that data are provided in the correct format and that there are no holes in th e emissions inventory. They would also coordinate with EPA and other RP Os to determine the best sources of data for

non-VISTAS States as well as Ca nada and Mexico. Once data ar e received from the VISTAS emissions contractor the Emissions Gatekeep er would perform a preliminary QA/QC and immediately report back to VISTAS and the emissi ons contractor any issues that are uncovered.

These results would be documented in the Emissions Gatekeeper report.

Under this task we would also develop emissi ons inventories for non-VISTAS States, Canada,

and Mexico consistent with the RPO data exchan ge protocol, using exis ting national or regional modeling inventories, state CERR submittals, EPA National Emissions Inventories, or other sources, as appropriate

2.5.3.4 Subtask 3d: Emissions Modeling

The objective of this Subtask is to generate base- and future-year CMAQ-ready gridded, hourly, speciated, three-dimensional emission input s for 2002. The SMOKE emissions processing system would be used along with the 2002 MM5 da ta to process the 2002 emissions for VISTAS

states from the VISTAS emissions contractor and emissions from the non-VISTAS states, Canada and Mexico provided und er Subtask 3c Emissions Ga tekeeper. CMAQ emission modeling files would be generated to support four rounds of emissions modeling runs using the 2002 meteorological conditions:

1. An initial 2002 Base Case run of CMAQ -ready emission inputs us ing VISTAS States emissions data received by January 31, 2004, a nd MM5 meteorological data received by March 31, 2002 would be ready by May 30, 2004. 2. Revised 2002 Base Case and 2002 Typical Y ear emission runs using the emissions submitted by September 15, 2004 that would be ready by October 15, 2004. 3. Future-year emission scenarios using 2002 meteorology and emissions data submitted by October 15, 2004 would be ready by November 15, 2004.

The initial 2002 Base Case emissions mode ling would use the existing Phase I SMOKE emissions modeling set up. For the revised 2002 Base Case, 2002 Typical Year and Future-Year emissions modeling, the existing Phase I SMOKE emissions modeling set up would be updated

and enhanced as follows:

• Process emissions with SMOKE version 2 • Implement EPA’s new spatia l surrogate distributions • Implement EPA’s revised PM speciati on profiles and SCC cross-references • Implement revised temporal profiles as co llected and converted from data provided by VISTAS’ emissions contractors or other sources

Biogenic emissions will be processed us ing SMOKE and the 2002 MM5 day-specific temperatures and held constant for all the 2002 and future-year emission scenarios (i.e., the effects of climate change and land cover change s will not be accounted for in the future-year biogenic emission estimates).Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 24 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

On-road mobile sources comprise a major com putational component of the SMOKE emissions modeling. If day-specific adjustments are required usi ng day-of-week and daily MM5 temperature estimates that would increase the SMOKE processing time considerably and potentially impact the schedule.

Currently, other RPOs are modeling the moto r vehicle emissions using average monthly temperature data, or by modeling one weekday, Saturday and Sunday from each quarter. To better represent the day-of the-week variability typical to motor vehicle emissions, and to make the best possible use of the me teorological data available, we propose to model one full week from each month of the annual episode, for a total of 84 episode days modeled. Note that this approach will allow us to expand the number of motor vehicle days modeled, if particular periods of the annual episode warrant additi onal refinement in the modeling inventory. Area source and non-road mobile source emissions will also be modeled for one week per month, using seasonal, monthly and day-of-week adjustments available in the current SMOKE configuration.

EGU emissions will be supplied by the VISTAS em issions contractor in an annual file. To temporally allocate the EGU point sources, heat input data from the 2002 CEM datasets will be used to develop facility or unit-level temporal di stributions. The day-specific and facility-specific temporal profiles will be used in conjunction with the emissions contractor supplied emissions data to calculate hourly EGU emissions by facility.

For the 2002 Typical Year and Future-Year emissi on scenarios the VISTAS emissions contractorwould provide average emissions for EGUs for the current baseline (2000-2004) and the futureyear baseline (2014-2018) periods.

Day-specific emissions for fires (wildfires, prescribed burns a nd agricultural fires) may be provided by the VISTAS emissions contractor and would be used in the 2002 Base Case

emissions scenario. If other tem porally allocated fire emissions are provided, we will generate a set of actual 2002 fire-based tempor al profiles and cross-references to allocate emi ssions to hours in the modeled episodes. Typical year emissions for fires would be provided by the VISTAS

emissions contractor and would be used in both the 2002 Typical Year and Future-Year emission

scenarios.

Ammonia emissions will be modeled as provide d by the emissions contractor. Supplemental ammonia modeling is not expected during the emissions modeling phase.

Wind blown dust emissions (i.e ., PM10 and PM2.5 emissions from wind erosion of natural geogenic sources (SCCs 2730100000 [total] and 2730100001 [dust devils]), will be excluded from the modeling files consistent with Phase I.

Each round of emissions mode ling would be documented in emission summary tables and PowerPoint presentations that would contain ta bles and graphs of the emissions and QA/QC summaries. A final report on the VISTAS Phase II emissions modeling would be prepared that

focuses on the differences in emissions in the different emissions scenarios includingQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 25 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

documentation of the changes in emissions from the 2002 Typical Year to Future-Year emissions scenario that would assist in the interpretation of the visibility projections.

2.5.3.5 Subtask 3e: Future-Year Emissions M odeling for Three VISTAS Phase I Episodes

Under this Subtask we would develop emissions modeling files for the initial future-year base case inventory for the July 2001 and Jan 2002 Phase I episodes. These inventories will be used in emissions sensitivity modeling analyses be tween May 2004 and September 2004. The same SMOKE emissions set up from the Phase II Subtask 3d would be used.

2.5.3.6 Subtask 3f: Interim Future-Year Em issions Modeling using 2002 Meteorology

Under this Subtask we would generate CMAQ-r eady emission inputs for an interim future-year and the 2002 meteorological year . The VISTAS emissions cont ractors would provide interim future-year emissions estimates.

2.5.3.7 Phase II Task 3 Deliverables

The VISTAS Phase II Task 3 deliverables are summarized in Table 2-10.

Table 2-10. Phase II Task 3 2002 Data Preparation and Model Inputs task deliverables and due

dates.

Item Description Due Date 1 Subtask 3a 2002 Air Quality and Deposition Database for Model

Performance Evaluation 04/30/04

2 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtask 3b: “VISTAS 2002 MM5 Annual Run Meteorological Gatekeeper Evaluation.” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/v istas2/ppt_files/Task3b_VISTAS_II%20_ met_gatekeeper_.ppt 06/30/04

3 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtas k 3c VISTAS Initial Base Year 2002 Emissions Inventory Prep aration.” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vista s2/ppt_files/Task3c_Initial_Base_Year _EI_Preparation.ppt 08/08/04

4 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtask 3c VISTAS Future Year Emissions Inventory Preparation.” Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vista s2/ppt_files/Task3c_Initial_Future_Ye ar_EI_Preparation.ppt 08/08/04

5 Subtask 3d Initial 2002 Base Case CMAQ-ready Emission Inputs 05/30/04 6 Subtask 3d Revised and Typical 200 2 CMAQ-ready Emission Inputs 10/15/04 7 Subtask 3d Future-Year (2018) CM AQ-ready Emission Inputs for Two

Scenarios 12/15/04

8 Subtask 3e Future-Year (2018) CMAQ-ready Emission Inputs for Two Phase I Episodes 06/15/04

9 Subtask 3f Interim Future-Year ( 2009) CMAQ-ready Emission Inputs 12/15/04Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 26 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

2.5.4 Phase II Task 4: 2002 Annual CMAQ Modeling

Under Phase II Task 4 we would apply the CMAQ model using Initial and Revised 2002 Actual Base Case emissions and other inputs and pe rform a model performance evaluation on the

results.

2.5.4.1 Subtask 4a: Initial Base Case and Model Performance Evaluation

A preliminary 2002 CMAQ Actual Base Case simu lation would be performed using the initial 2002 inventory for VISTAS and Non-VISTAS stat es, Canada and Mexico that are to be delivered to modeling team by January 31, 2004. After subjecting the initial 2002 emissions to the Emissions Gatekeeper quality checks and QA/QC (Subtask 3c), CMAQ-ready emissions would be generated using the initial emissions for 2002 (Subtask 3d). The primary objective of this initial CMAQ run is to set up and streamlin e the modeling system an d approach and obtain a preliminary model performance ev aluation for the 2002 annu al period. The focus of the analysis will be on model performance diagnostics and e xperience in running the annual simulations to optimize model performance both in terms of ability to estimate fine particulate matter in the southeastern US as well as optimize the abilit y of the modeling centers to perform 2002 annual CMAQ runs.

Once the initial CMAQ base case simulation is generated, it will be subjected to a model performance evaluation. In Phas e II multiple approaches will be utilized in the evaluation

process:

• Alpine will use their MAPS so ftware to generate performa nce statistics and graphical displays by network and by subregion. The MAPS software generated some performance measures not supported by othe r software (e.g., spatial average time series) and once set up can easily generate performance measures and displays by subregion.

• Alpine will also apply the UCR statisti cal performance package that was used in Phase I that includes model pe rformance metrics, scatter plot s and time series plots. This package has been extended to include PAVE spatial maps with superimposed observation to provide spatial in formation on model performance.

• UCR will help analyze and interpret the m odel performance results and post them on the VISTAS modeling website.

• ENVIRON will evaluate the results using techniques they developed for WRAP that focus on model performance at Class I areas for the 20% Best and 20% Worst visibility days that are the data used to project future-year visibility improvements. This performance would in clude predicted and observe d stacked bar charts of extinction showing the contribu tions of each of the for th e 7 components of extinction (SO4, NO3, EC, OC, Soil, CM and Rayleigh) of extinction averaged and separately for the 20% Best/Worst days. Days from th en 20% Best/Worst days and Class I areas where the modeling results deviate greatly fr om the observed values would be flaggedQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 27 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

for further analysis into model performa nce and possible exclusion for use in the visibility projections (i.e., calculating RRFs).

Use of multiple MPE approaches will allow the quick identification of potential problems in the model estimates or the model pe rformance evaluation software. The results would be shared among the group and with VISTAS. The operati onal model performance evaluation would be conducted using the same “routine” ambient da tabases as used in Phase I (e.g., IMPROVE, CASTNet, AQS, SEARCH, STN and SEARCH).

Because the initial emissions may undergo sign ificant changes, limited diagnostic sensitivity tests would be conducted using the initial 2002 CMAQ database. The limited sensitivity tests would be aimed at identifying a nd rectifying specific performance issues of the model that we don’t believe will be corrected by updated emissions. As in the VISTAS Phase I modeling, the sensitivity tests will be flexible and opportunistic to quickly identify and reso lve areas of highest importance. However, the number of sensitivit y tests will be limited by available funding and

time constraints.

2.5.4.2 Subtask 4b: Revised Base Case Simulation

A 2002 CMAQ simulation would be conducted usi ng the revised 2002 Base Case emissions inventory that is expected to be received from the VISTAS emissions c ontractor by September 15, 2004. Several components of 2002 initial CMAQ set up could change including, but not limited to, emissions, meteorology, boundary c onditions, CMAQ update, CMAQ chemical module. For example, if a 2002 GEOS-CHEM simu lation is performed, then the revised BCs from Optional Task 13 would be used in the re vised base case simulation. The revised 2002 CMAQ simulation would be run using the “best c onfiguration” identified in Subtask 4a. The

results would be transferred to each of the modeling centers that would conduct their own operational MPE as was done under Subtask 4a. We have budgeted 8 annual 36 km and 4 annual 12 km sensitivity simulations under this task to investigate alternative configurations, options and updates on model performance. The results would be documented in a draft final report submitted to VISTAS.

2.5.4.3 Subtask 4c: Typical Year Emissions Simulation

EPA guidance recommends using models in a rela tive sense to project fu ture year visibility through relative reduction factors (RRFs). Thus, for projecting changes in visibility, the currentyear base case and future-year scenarios must be c onsistent. Thus, in this task typical emissions for fires and EGUs will be used for the 2002 Typi cal Year emissions scenario, instead of the episodic specific emissions used in the 2002 Ba se Case simulation. The 2002 typical year emissions generated under Subtask 3d would be us ed in this simulation. The results would be subjected to a QA/QC, compared with the 2002 Base Case simulation a nd a cursory evaluation

would be conducted.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 28 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

2.5.4.4 Subtask 4d: Future-Year Modeling for Two Scenarios

Using the CMAQ-ready emissions for the two fu ture-year emission scenarios prepared under Subtask 3d that would be ready by Nove mber 15, 2004 and December 15, 2004, we would perform the two future-year CMAQ simulations under this subtask. New future-year boundary conditions (BCs) may be used depending on the av ailability of data. The future-year CMAQ results for the two scenarios and the CMAQ results for the 2002 Typical Y ear scenario would be used to project visibility improvement s at Class I areas using EPA guidance.

2.5.4.5 Subtask 4e: Interim Future-Year using 2002 Database

Using the CMAQ-ready emissions for the interim future-year emission scenario prepared under

Subtask 3f that would be rea dy by December 15, 2004, we would pe rform the interim future-year CMAQ simulation under this subtask. New future -year boundary conditions (BCs) may be used depending on the availability of data. The future-year CMAQ results for the interim future-year scenario and the CMAQ results for the 2002 Typical Year scenario would be used to project visibility improvements at Cla ss I areas using EPA guidance.

2.5.4.6 Summary of Phase II Task 4 Deliverables

Table 2-11 summarizes the VISTAS Phase II Task 4 deliverables and due dates.

Table 2-11. Phase II Task 4 2002 CMAQ Modeling task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due

Date

1 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtas k 4a: “Initial Vistas 2002 CMAQ Run, Analysis of 36 km Performance for PM.” Presented at July 27, 2004

VISTAS TAWG Conference Call. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/reports/2002_CMAQ_initial.ppt 07/27/04

2 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtask 4a: “Initial VIST AS 2002 CMAQ Run: 36/12 km Diagnostic MPE” Presen ted at July 27, 2004 VISTAS TAWG

Conference Call. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vis tas2/reports/2002_CMAQ_initial_AG.ppt 07/27/04

3 Revised Draft Final Report for Subt ask 4a: “VISTAS Phase II Emissions and Air Quality Modeling -- Task 4a Report: Evaluation of the Initial CMAQ 2002 Annual Simulation.” Dated September 27, 2004. 09/27/04

4 PowerPoint Presentation for Subt ask 4a: “Initial CMAQ Diagnostic MPE

for 2002: VISTAS Task 4a Results.” Presented at VISTAS September 21- 22, 2004 TAWG meeting in Atlanta, Georgia. Available at: files/Sept_2004_tawg/2002_CMA Q%20Diagnostic%20MPE_TWT.ppt 09/21/04

5 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtas k 4a: “Initial VISTAS Phase II 2002 CMAQ Operational Model Performance Evaluation.” Presented at VISTAS September 21-22, 2004 TAWG meeting in A tlanta, Georgia. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/docs.shtml 09/21/04

6 PowerPoint Presentation for Subtask 4a on dia g nostic anal y sis of the Initial 11/12/04Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 29 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Item Description Due

Date 2002 CMAQ Base Case simulation to identify OC and NO3 performance

issues.

7 PowerPoint Presentation for S ubtask 4b on Revised 2002 XCMAQ Base

Case Simulation and Model Performance Evaluation 11/30/04

8 Subtask 4b Draft Report on Revised 2002 CMAQ Base Case simulation and model performance evaluation 12/15/04

9 Subtask 4b Report on Model Sensitivity Tests 01/15/05

10 PowerPoint Presentation on Subtask 4c 2002 Typical Base Case simulation 12/31/04 11 Subtask 4d Draft Report on Future-Year (2018) Base Case modeling 01/31/04

12 PowerPoint Presentation on Subtask 4e Interim Future-Year modeling 01/31/05

2.5.5 Phase II Task 5: Episodic Modeling

The VISTAS Phase II plan includes potential pr ovisions for performing episodic modeling if needed. In particular, additional episodic modeling may be carried out to: (1) capture meteorological conditions for Worst 20% or Best 20% visibility days at Class I areas that did not occur during the 2002 annual modeling period; and (2) to obtain mode ling periods during 2003 when the FOCUS sites were operating that contai n enhanced speciated PM measurements. The Phase II Task 5 Episodic Modeling work effort is currently not funded. Given that the 2003 year was fairly wet and atypical and the 2002 annual m odeling year appears to capture most of the meteorological conditions, additional episodic modeling may not be carried out so is not addressed in this QAPP.

2.5.6 Phase II Task 6: Data Management

2.5.6.1 Subtask 6a: VISTAS Modeling Website

Under this Subtask we would maintain th e VISTAS Modeling Website including posting modeling input and output files, re ports, interpretation of results , and other documents including Task Reports and PowerPoint Pr esentations presented during mee tings and conference calls.

2.5.6.2 Subtask 6b: Data Transfer, Storage and Retrieval

Under this Subtask we would archive and stor e key model inputs and outputs and make them available to others. Storage of model inputs and outputs for up to 6 annual runs plus episodic runs or optional tasks to be defined. A firewire or IDE drive(s) of the key model inputs would be provided to VISTAS who c ould distribute it to stat es, stakeholders and others as desired (i.e., technology transfer). We would also perform da ta requests as directed by VISTAS under this

Subtask.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 30 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

2.5.6.3 Phase II Task 6 Data Management Deliverables

Table 2-12 summarizes the deliverables and schedul e for the Phase II Task 6 Data Management. The VISTAS Phase II modeling website would be operated and maintain ed continuously during the 2004-2005. We expect the Initial and Revi sed 2002 CMAQ databases to be delivered to VISTAS in October and December 2004, respectiv ely. Finally, as directed by VISTAS we would provide additional data to others as requested.

Table 2-12. Phase II Task 6 Data Management task deliverables and schedule.

Item Description Due Date

1 VISTAS Phase II Modelin g Website. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/index.shtml 2004-2005

2 Firewire disks of Initial 2002 CM AQ annual modeling databases 10/15/04

3 Firewire disks of Revised 2002 CM AQ annual modeling databases 12/31/04 4 Disks, CD, DVD, ftp files and e-mail file s of data transfer as directed by

VISTAS 2004-2005

2.5.7 Phase II Task 7: Emission Reduction Sensitivity Simulations using CB4 and SAPRC Chemistry and 2 Phase I Episodes

The objective of this optional task is to investigat e the sensitivity of estimated PM concentrations to emissions reductions using the CB4 and SA PRC99 chemical mechanisms. If significant

differences exist and there are reasons to believe that the SAPRC99 response may be more correct, then the revised 2002 Base Case modeli ng starting in September would be performed using the SAPRC99 chemistry.

The CB4 and SAPRC99 emission reductions sensit ivity tests would be performed using the January 2002 (winter) and July 2001 (summer) ep isodes. We would perform 30% emission reductions across all source categori es and across the entire mode ling domain for the 36 km grid for the following five precursors:

• NOx

• SO2

• VOC

• NH3

• NOx+NH3

With 2 episodes and 2 chemical mechanisms this results in 10 total CMAQ 36 km simulations. We would also perform two corroborative emissions reductions sensitivity simulations using the CAMx model for the July 2001 episode and 36 km grid. Table 2-13 summarizes the deliverables

under Phase I Task 7.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 31 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Table 2-13. Phase II Task 7 CB4/SAPRC Sensitivity Modeling task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date

1 PowerPoint Presentation for Task 7: “VISTAS Phase II Task 7 Update: CMAQ Version 4.4beta CB4/SAPRC99 Comp arisons” presented at July 27,

2004 TAWG Conference Call. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vis tas2/reports/PhaseII_Task7_Update.ppt 07/27/04

2 PowerPoint Presentation for Task 7: “VISTAS Phase II Task 7 Results: CMAQ Version 4.4beta CB4/SAPRC99 Comparisons” presented at September 2, 2004 TAWG Conference Call. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/ppt_files/Task7_VISTAS_PhaseII_Tas k7_CB4-SAPRC_Sep02_2004.ppt 09/02/04

3 PowerPoint Presentation for Task 7: “VISTAS Phase II Task 7 Results: CB4/SAPRC99 Comparisons for Urban S ites” presented at September 14,

2004 TAWG Conference Call. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vista s2/ppt_files/Task7_VISTAS_PhaseII_CB 4-SAPRC_Urban_Sep14_2004.ppt 09/14/04

2.5.8 Phase II Task 10: Journal Paper on VISTAS Phase I Modeling

The objective of this task is to write and subm it the results of the VISTAS Phase I modeling results to a peer-review journal. An outlin e for a journal article on the VISTAS Phase I modeling would be prepared and distributed to VISTAS. Based on comments the outline would be updated and a draft paper written documenting the VISTAS Phase I modeling results. The draft paper would be distributed to VISTAS and updated based on their comments. In consultation with VISTAS a Journal would be selected and the paper submitted to the Journal for publication. The paper would be updated as need ed to address comments of the Journal peerreviewers and a final manuscript submitted to the Journal for publication.

Table 2-14. Phase II Task 10 Phase I Journal Article task deliverables and due dates.

Item Description Due Date

1 Draft Journal Article on VISTAS Phas e I Modeling for VISTAS review 11/30/04

2 Journal Article for Submission 12/31/04

2.5.9 Phase II Task 13: Analysis and Processing of 2002 GEOS-CHEM Data

Under this task we would process output from a 2002 GEOS-CHEM global climate model simulation performed by Harvard University to generate 2002 day-specific 3-hourly CMAQ boundary condition (BC) inputs for 2002.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 32 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Table 2-15. Phase II Task 13 2002 GEOS-CHEM Boundary Condition Processing task deliverables

and due dates.

Item Description Due Date

1 PowerPoint Presentation: “Docum entation and Evaluation of the 2002

GEOS-CHEM Simulation.” Presente d during VISTAS TAWG October 4,

2004 conference call. Available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/v istas2/ppt_files/2002_GEOS_CHEM_10040 4.ppt 10/01/04

2 CMAQ-ready Boundary Condition (BC) input files 10/15/04

3.0 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

3.1 Project Organization

This project is conducted by the ENVIRON Inte rnational Corporation, Alpine Geophysics, LLC (Alpine), and the University of California at Riverside (UCR), with input from the VISTAS Technical Analysis Workgroup (TAWG). Organizati onal commitment is an essential element for developing and implementing a su ccessful research project. Ralph Morris of ENVIRON would be the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality M odeling Project Manager (PM). The VISTAS Phase II Modeling Team has three Co -Principal Investigators that co ordinate activities at each of the three modeling centers, Ra lph Morris of ENVIRON, T.W. Tesche of Alpine and Gail

Tonnesen at UCR. The PM and three Co-PIs are kept apprised of all pr oject activities, from identifying the need to develop sound experiment al and project designs to delivering reports. Commitments to research and project activities, such as those described in this QAPP are made only after the activities are thoroughly review ed and approved by the PM and Co-PIs and VISTAS TAWG. Figure 3-1 presents the orga nizational chart that shows the lines of responsibility and information flow for activities under th is project. Table 3-1 lists the project responsibilities for participants in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling study, with more details on their roles provided next.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 33 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Southeastern States Air Resources Managers, Inc.

(Contracting Agency)

VISTAS
Technical Analysis Workgroup (TAWG)

Chairperson:

Sheila Holman, North

Carolina VISTAS

Contracting Officer:

Patricia Brewer, VISTAS VISTAS

Technical Contact:

James Boylan, Georgia

Subcontractor

Alpine Geophysics

Co-Principal Investigator

T. W. Tesche

Staff Prime Contractor

ENVIRON
Project Manager and CoPrincipal Investigator

Ralph Morris

Staff Subcontractor

UC Riverside

Co-Principal Investigator

Gail Tonnesen

Staff

Figure 3-1. VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Project Organizational Chart.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 34 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Table 3-1. VISTAS Phase II Emissions and Air Qua lity Modeling project participants and

contacts.

Person & Role Affiliation/Address Contact Information

Patricia Brewer (Contracting Officer) VISTAS Technical Coordinator 2090 US Highway 70 Asheville, NC 28778 (828) 296-4500 (Fax) (828) 299-7043 pat.brewer@ncmail.net James Boylan (Technical Contact for
Emissions & AQ Modeling) Georgia DNR

Air Protection Branch 4244 International Pkwy, Ste 120 Atlanta, GA 30354-3906 (404) 362-4851 (Fax) (404) 363-7100 James_Boylan@mail.dnr.state.ga.us

Michael Abraczinskas (Technical Contact for MM5 Modeling) North Carolina DENR

1641 Mail Service Center Raleigh, NC 27699-1641 (919) 715-3743 Michael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.net

Ralph Morris (Project Manager and Co-Principal Investigator) ENVIRON 101 Rowland Way Novato, CA 94945 (415) 899-0708 (Fax) (415) 899-0707 rmorris@environcorp.com

T.W Tesche (Co-Principal Investigator) Alpine Geophysics, LLC

3479 Reeves Drive Ft. Wright, KY 41017 (859) 341-7502 (Fax) (859) 341-7502 twt@iac.net

Gail Tonnesen (Co-Principal Investigator) UC Riverside

CE-CERT

1084 Columbia Avenue Riverside, CA 92507 (951) 781-5676 (Fax) (909) 781-5790 tonnesen@cert.ucr.edu

Key ENVIRON Participants Bonyoung Koo ENVIRON 101 Rowland Way Novato, CA 94945 (415) 899-0727 bkoo@environcorp.com

Edward Tai ENVIRON (415) 899-0725 etai@environcorp.com

Steven Lau ENVIRON (415) 899-0739 slau@environcorp.com Key Alpine Geophysics Participants Dennis McNally Alpine Geophysics, LLC 7341 Poppy Way Arvada, CO 80007 (303) 421-2211 (Fax) (303) 421-9553 dem@alpinegeophysics.com Cyndi Loomis Alpine Geophysics, LLC 7341 Poppy Way Arvada, CO 80007 (303) 421-2211 (Fax) (303) 421-9553 cfl@alpinegeophysics.com Greg Stella Alpine Geophysics, LLC

387 Pollard Mine Road Burnsville, NC 28714 (828) 675-9045 gms@alpinegeophysics.com

Key UCR CE-CERT Participants Zion Wang UC Riverside

CE-CERT

1084 Columbia Avenue Riverside, CA 92507 (951) 781-5655 zsw@cert.ucr.edu

Chao-Jung Chien UC Riverside (951) 781-5666 chien@cert.ucr.edu

Glen Kaukola UC Riverside (951) 781-5630 glen@cert.ucr.eduQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 35 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

3.1.1 ENVIRON Project Manager a nd Co-Principal Investigator

Mr. Ralph Morris of ENVIRON is the Project Manager (PM) and Co -Principal Investigator (CoPI) for the VISTAS Emissions an d Air Quality Modeling Team. He provides overall direction to the project and establishes a po licy relationship with the sponsor , ensuring that all issues of importance to the VISTAS TAWG are addressed. The PM is responsible for the overall conduct of the project, experimental desi gn, reporting of the results, a nd interacting with the client, consultants, and project staff. The specific responsibilities of the PM include, but are not necessarily limited to, the following:

• Directs and coordinates the activities of th e project team and co mputer facilities to conduct the test program • Ensures that this QAPP and the Modeling Prot ocol are followed during the course of the project • Guides the overall approach for performing modeling evaluations • Keeps current on project status and delivers progress reports • Conducts initial modeling or analysis of expe riments to determine if inconsistencies or unexpected results suggest possible e xperimental or measurement problems • Evaluates overall data quality, characteri zation results, and overall system performance with regard to meeti ng project objectives • Reviews and delivers modeling and assessment reports

• Interacts with external scientific reviewer s, collaborators and other external groups in their area of expertise in the development of study priorities, reporting of results, and obtaining external input • Oversees the project team in responding to a ny issues raised in assessment reports and initiates corrective actions as necessary • Serve as ENVIRON’s primary point of contact for contract issues • Establishes a project budget and monitors the effort to ensure that budget is not exceeded

• Establishes a Subcontracts with Alpine and UCR to perform the work, and adhere to the

terms and conditions of that contract • Assists in the performance of the modeling program in accordance with its contract and

the Work Plan

• Provides information to assist the VISTAS TA WG in achieving its goals as stated in its Work Plan and Strategic Plan • Develops individual test prot ocols and reports as directed • Analyzes modeling data and provides assessment reports • Supports the Principal Investigator and VISTAS in res ponding to any issues raised in

assessment reports

3.1.2 ENVIRON, Alpine and UCR Co-Principal Investigators

The three Co-Principal Investig ators of Ralph Morris, T.W. Te sche and Gail Tonnesen perform the following functions:

• Directs and coordinates the da y-to-day project activities of the project team and computer facilities to conduct the test programQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 36 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

• Ensures that this QAPP and Modeling Protoc ol are followed during the course of the project • Manages the activities in each of the three modeling centers • Direct supervises person nel working on this project • Guides the approach for performing modeli ng evaluations following the direction of the Project Manager • Keeps current on project status and delivers information to Project Manager for progress

reports • Conducts initial modeling or analysis of expe riments to determine if inconsistencies or unexpected results suggest possible e xperimental or measurement problems • Evaluates overall data quality, characteri zation results, and overall system performance with regard to meeti ng project objectives

• Reviews and delivers data and sections fo r integration into modeling and assessment

reports • With the Project Manager, interacts with exte rnal scientific reviewers, collaborators and other external groups in their area of expertise in the development of study priorities, reporting of results, and obtaining external input • Oversees the project team in each modeling center responding to any issues raised in assessment reports and initiates corrective actio ns as necessary with the Project Manager • Monitors the effort to ensure that budget is not exceeded • Assists in the performance of the modeling program in accordance with its contract and

the Work Plan • Develops individual test prot ocols and reports as directed • Analyzes modeling data and provides assessment reports

3.1.3 VISTAS Contracting Officer

The VISTAS Contracting Officer (Patricia Brewe r) serves as the primary contact between the Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team and VISTAS and performs the following functions:

• Provides day-to-day oversight of VISTAS Phase II Emissions and Air Quality Modeling

Team activities • Works with the Project Manager, Co-Princ ipal Investigators, TAWG, States, Tribes oversight groups, collaborators, Stakeholders , etc. in assuring that the interests and concerns of all of the VISTAS participants are appropriately represented as project priorities are developed or m odified due to external input • Assists in organizing and conducting mee tings, conference calls, and workshops where this and related projects are discussed

3.1.4 VISTAS Technical Contact

The VISTAS Technical Contact (James Boylan) for the Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team works with the VISTAS Contacting Officer in the day-to-day over sight and management of the modeling analysis:Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 37 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

• Provides day-to-day oversight of VISTAS Phase II Emissions and Air Quality Modeling

Team activities • Works with the VISTAS Contracting Offi cer, Project Manager, and Co-Principal Investigators to assure that the study is bei ng carried out in a tech nically correct fashion following the QAPP and Modeling Protocol • Prepares and gives presenta tions to VISTAS groups on th e activities of the Modeling

team.

3.1.5 VISTAS Technical Analysis Workgroup (TAWG)

The Technical Analysis Workgr oup is responsible for overseeing the regional haze and fine particulate modeling that will be required for the State Implementation Plans (SIP's). This workgroup provides both emissions inventory and modeling technical support to VISTAS. Emissions Inventory efforts include the developmen t of emissions inventories and forecasts to be utilized in VISTAS modeling efforts. Modeling efforts will include identification, evaluation, and application of air quality modeling tools (inc luding meteorological and air quality models) to quantify the effects of emission management options upon air quali ty in Class I areas in the VISTAS region. Specific activities of the TAWG include:

• Oversees the activities of the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team through the Contracting Officer, conference calls, and period ic in-person meetings and workshops • Provides the Contracting Offi cer, technical Contact, Project Manager and Co-Principal Investigators input on the research plans and th eir ability to meet th e needs of the various

stakeholders relevant to the ove rall objectives of the project • Provides input as needed to assure that th e project has effective and appropriate peer

review • Makes the Project Manager a nd Co-Principal Inve stigators aware of other projects that may be of relevance to this project • Reviews the QAPP and conducts critical project reviews

3.2 Project Schedule and Execution

The schedule for each of the VISTAS Phase I and II Tasks are presented at the end of each Task Description in Sections 2.4 and 2.5.

3.3 Personnel Qualifications and Training

General education of all pr oject personnel lays the founda tion for successful project implementation. It is not intende d to provide detailed and specif ic knowledge of all components of the project, but it promotes an understandi ng of the nature of the overall project goals, ensuring that all personnel unders tand the part they are to play in the project. The members of this project team include resi dent experts in emissions, mete orological and air quality model development and operations.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 38 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

All project personnel must have extensive experien ce in their particular disciplines. Each team

member must be familiar with the content of th is QAPP and all documents presented in Section 8.0, thus obtaining a project over view, including information on all functions of the modeling systems, from experimental design, objectiv es, and data validation and reporting. Where applicable, project personnel must be familiar w ith the SOPs applicable to their areas of responsibility. In addition, if ma jor revisions or enhancements are made to the QAPP and/or SOPs, all affected individuals must re view those revisions at that time.

3.4 Communications Plan

The VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeli ng Team members, othe r VISTAS Contractors and VISTAS representatives are linked by e-mail corre spondence, and also us e this as a means to communicate and exchange data, either as e-mail attachments, website or by network-accessible

files. A considerable amount of information is exchanged by e-mail with in this project. The VISTAS Modeling Team maintains four listservs to distribute information to different VISTAS groups as indicated in Table 3-2.

Table 3-2. VISTAS listservs maintained by the Em issions and Air Quality Modeling Team.

Listserv Purpose Vistas-all@cert.ucr.edu Contacts all participants including Modeling Team, VISTAS

TAWG and Stakeholders Vistas-modeling@cert.ucr.edu Contacts Mode ling team and VISTAS TAWG Modeling

Contacts Vistas-emissions@cert.ucr.edu Contacts emissions staff in the Modeling team and emissions people in the VISTAS TAWG Vistas-met@cert.ucr.edu Contacts meteor ology staff in the Modeling team and meteorology people in the VISTAS TAWG

The Modeling Team members and VISTAS TAWG hold periodic conference calls and meetings to report results, discuss project status, and modify work pl ans as necessary. Unscheduled meetings or conference calls are also held concerning specific issues as the needs arise. In addition, periodic project meetings and conference calls are held. In these meetings detailed technical information is exchanged, project status is discussed, and pr oject direction is assessed.

Written progress reports on the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Team activities are submitted to the VISTAS Contracting Officer on a monthly basis. These reports summarize project progress, results to date , problems encountered and nece ssary action items, and plans for the upcoming reporting period.

All modeling results, quality assu rance reports, and related docu ments are posted on the project web site, as described in Section 3.5.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 39 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

3.5 Documentation and Records

After the project tasks in Sections 2.4 and 2.5 that require deliverabl es are completed, the ensuing documents are posted on the VISTAS M odeling Phase I and II project websites at:

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/

In addition, during the project, VISTAS is provided updates by e-mail or telephone.

Document control is the system that ensures that only the latest revisions of the defined documents are used by the Modeling Team personne l engaging in project activities. The system includes retention of the document with original signed page(s) in a limite d access storage area, a unique numbering system for all documents (typi cally identified by revision number and/or date), and electronic storage of documents by da te so that the latest versions is clearly

identifiable. Such documents are controlle d documents, and can be revised only by the personnel listed within each document or the proj ect quality document. The following is a typical list of the controlled documents within the project folder:

1. The quality documents for the project such as the Quality Management Plan, Quality Assurance Project Plan.

2. All applicable and referenced or attach ed Standard Operati ng Procedures and/or

Methods.

3. Project proposals, contracts, Work Plans, experimental designs, software documentation,

and/or similar documents.

4.0 MEASUREMENT AND DATA ACQUISITION

4.1 Computer Hardware/Systems Administration

All emissions, meteorology and air quality m odeling is performed on computer equipment located at either the ENVIRON, Al pine or UCR modeling centers.

4.1.1 ENVIRON Modeling Center Hardware

The computing facilities at the ENVIRON Novato, CA office are built on current state-of-the-art hardware and software. The networked configur ation of personal computers, workstations and printers includes Linux and Window PCs, SGI, SUN and DEC Unix workstations and a Linux Cluster all connected by a fast network with disk access to RAID systems. The ENVIRON computer center includes the very latest co mputing technology including both OMP (shared memory) and MPI (cluster) multi-processing capabilit y. All staff also have their own state-ofQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 40 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

the-art PCs and have access to all workstations at all times, there are no problems with computer resource availability. ENVIRON’s high speed Linux and UNIX computing environment includes workstations from three top suppliers, Sun, Di gital Equipment Corporation (DEC) and Silicon Graphics Incorporated (SGI). ENVIRON also us es Linux PC workstations with several different distributions of the Linux OS (e.g., Red Hat, Debian, Mandrake) and these exceed the performance of fast UNIX workstations. Using wo rkstations from several suppliers allows us to develop and test model codes on multiple computer platforms and means that we are experienced with most of the workstations used by our c lients. The latest addition to the ENVIRON computing facilities is a 16 node Linux cluster using the Athlon MP2200 chip set with gigabit Ethernet that is configured as two 8 node MPI multiprocessing platforms.

4.1.2 Alpine Geophysics Modeling Center Hardware

Alpine Geophysics' computing facilities consist of SUN Microsystems SPARCstation computers and a very powerful array 10 multiprocessor Linux-based workstations. The aggregate network has over 7.3 Gbytes of memory and 2500 Gbytes of aggregate disk space with over 2000 Gbytes of SCSI and IDE Raid-5 protected space. All c lient data is stored on at least one RAID-5 protected disk array. To further protect client data, two of our main servers backup their disk drives on a weekly basis to a second server th at is physically disconnected from the power supply when not doing an activ e transfer. This way a cata strophic power fa ilure will not compromise the ability for Alpine Geophysics to deliver.

To efficiently share network resources, 100-Base T fast ethernet switches interconnect the computers within each office. Additionally, the Arvada based computers have both the Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM) software package for co mputation on multiple nodes on the network and Open MP capabilities for shared memory multip rocessing within each computer. For the majority of model simulations, using a job level parallelizati on, where individual periods of a simulation are put onto each computational node, maximizes network throughput. However, the computational network also has the ability to share the multi-Gbyte memory and 20 processors on a single MM5 model simulation.

A key feature of the AG computer network is th e ability for AG to add computational resources quickly and cost effectively. Alpine scie ntists have been using Linux and Unix for meteorological and air quality mo deling for over 16 years. Th is knowledge base, along with existing relationships with hardware vendors, software vendors, and system specialists, enable AG to meet the computational requir ements of the VISTAS modeling study.

4.1.3 UCR Modeling Center Hardware

The UCR computer laboratory is designed to process large data se ts for air quali ty modeling. It includes 30 high-performance, dual CPU Linux workst ations configured as several small Linux clusters on a private network to facilitate parallel simulations. These systems include a 24 CPU Athlon 2000MP cluster, an 8 CPU Xeon 2.2GHz cluster and an 8 CPU 64-bit Opteron 2GHz cluster. The data storage system includes over 23 TB of disk space conf igured as RAID5 disk systems. All computers and disk systems are ne tworked using high speed Gigabit Ethernet for efficient simulation and analysis of large data sets. To provide maximum data security theQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 41 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

systems are located behind the UCR firewall and an additional firewall is used internally within the laboratory so that only project team memb ers have access to project computers and data.

Data are also routinely transferred from the UCR systems to other organizations using a variety of tape formats and portable hard drives. The data backup/archi ving system include 8mm tape drives and DLT and Super DLT auto loading cart ridge system capable of performing unattended archive/backups of over 1 TB (uncompressed). Key disk syst ems have hot-swappable hard drives with stand-by spare drives and redundant power supplie s. The compute clusters and disk systems are located in a locked, secure room with a dedicated climate c ontrol system and with backup air conditioning. UCR also uses the computer la boratory for air pollution modeling classes for graduate students and for profe ssional staff from State and Tr ibal air pollution agencies. The laboratory has a full time systems administrator to perform system backups, maintenance and updates and Dr. Tonnesen’s group includes a second full time systems administrator.

4.1.4 Backup Procedures

Different back-up procedures are ap plied to three different sets of computers that include (1) file servers; (2) user desktop Windows PCs; and (3) RAID5 disks storage syst ems. Several different File servers are used to host systems and user information, websites and ftp sites.

1. Each server receives a full Level 0 backup at least once every 14 days, and an incremental backup at least three times per week to an independent co mputer. In addition, incremental backups are peri odically made to tape.

2. Windows based PC’s are used to for editing project documents and reports. Each PC on the LAN receives a full Level 0 backup at least once every 14 days and incremental backups every three days.

3. Most of the project data are stored on RA ID5 disk systems. Becau se of the large volume of data (over 23 TB) it cannot be routinely backed up. Moreover, most of the project data are output from model simulations, which can be regenerated more quickly by re-running the models than by restoring from tape. Th erefore, only critical model input data are backed-up. One 2 TB RAID5 disk system is rese rved for back up of critical project data. Back-ups are performed weekly. In addition, critical project i nput data is archived to IDE drives, firewire drives or DLT tape.

All incoming electronic mail receives virus sc anning using commercial software (Norton or McAffee Anti-Virus), which is updated routin ely. Windows PC receives automated, weekly

scans for viruses.

Three types of software are used in the projec t: (1) commercial software for word processing, project management, communications, and commer cial software compilers; (2) compilers and computer operating systems publicly availa ble through the GNU Public License (GPL) distribution channels; and (3) cu stom software used in comput er simulation modeling and data analysis. All commercial software used in the VISTAS modeling is purchased with licenses and

is installed and tested as specified by the publisher. Comm ercial compilers include PortlandQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 42 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

Group compilers, and Intel and IB M FORTRAN compilers. All GPL software is obtained from official distribution centers, such as Redhat, a nd are regularly maintain ed and updated with each

official release from the code developers. Custom software is developed by UCR, EPA and other researchers using commercial and GPL compilers for FORTRAN, C and C++.

4.2 Sources for Data Used in Modeling

Most of the data used in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modelin g are provided by other VISTAS contractors with the data subjected to quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) prior to delivery to the Modeling team. In addition the Modeling Team have formed data “Gatekeeper” functions to further QA/QC provide d to the Modeling Team prior to its use. Below we discuss the data used in the modeling and the function of the Gatekeeper roles, which

are described in deta il in Section 2.2.2.1:

Air Quality Gatekeeper : The Air Quality Gatekeeper downl oads air quality data from the VIEWS, SEARCH and AIRS websites and subjects it to QA/QC. The data are reformatted and processed for use in the modeling.

Meteorological Gatekeeper : The Meteorological Gatekeeper evaluates the MM5 data provided by the VISTAS Mete orological Modeling Contractor (BAMS), subjects it to QA/QC and processes it for input to the CMAQ/CAMx air quality models.

Emissions Gatekeeper : The Emissions Gatekeeper receives emissions data from the

VISTAS Emissions Contractor (MACTEC), subjects them to a comprehensive QA/QC and rejects data that doesn’t pass the QA/QC and reformats the data for input into the

SMOKE emissions model.

Data Management Gatekeeper : The Data Management Gatekeeper maintains the project website, keeps back ups of data, responds to data requests and upda tes reports and files

on the website.

5.0 EMISSIONS MODELING

The project objective is to integrate mezoscale em issions and transport modeling efforts so that predictions of regional haze in Class I areas can be performed under different emissions and meteorological transport scenarios. Meeting this objective means that modeling outputs must be of known quality. This section addresses em issions modeling and Section 6.0 addresses meteorological modeling as they are applied to this project.

The VISTAS Modeling Team uses the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) emissions model to model the anthropogenic a nd biogenic gas and particulate matter (PM) emissions needed for regional haze modeling. A deta iled quality assurance protocol for utilizing SMOKE has been prepared as part of the Phas e II Modeling Protocol (ENVIRON, 2004a) and is

summarized in this section.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 43 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

The purpose of SMOKE is to c onvert the resolution of the em ission inventory data to the resolution needed by an air quality model. Emission inventories are typically available with an annual total emissions value for each emissions source, or perhaps with an average-day emissions value. The air quality models, however , typically require emissions data on an hourly basis, for each model grid cell (and perhap s model layer), and for each model species. Consequently, emissions processing for this proj ect involve transformati on of emission inventory data by temporal allocation, chemical speciati on, spatial allocation, and layer assignment, to achieve the input requirements of the air quality model.

SMOKE formulates emissions modeling in terms of sparse matrix operations. Figure 5-1 shows an example of how the matrix approach or ganizes the emissions processing steps for anthropogenic emissions, with the final step in creating the model-read y emissions being the merge step. This example does not include all pr ocessing steps, which can be different for each source category in SMOKE, but does include the ma jor processing steps list ed above, except the layer assignment. Specifically, the inventory emi ssions are arranged as a vector of emissions,

with associated vectors that incl ude characteristics abou t the sources such as it’s state and county (SCC). SMOKE also creates matrices that will apply the gridding, speciation, and temporal factors to the vector of emissions. In many ca ses, these matrices are independent from one another, and can therefore be generated in parall el. The processing approach ends with the merge step, which combines the inventory emissions v ector (now an hourly i nventory file) with the control, speciation, and gridding matri ces to create model-ready emissions.

Merge Import
Inventory Temporal

Allocation

Speciation

Gridding Inventory

Vectors

Controls Hourly

Emissions

Speciation

Matrix

Gridding

Matrix

Control

Matrix Model-ready

Emissions

Program Shows input or output File Merge Import
Inventory Temporal

Allocation

Speciation

Gridding Inventory

Vectors

Controls Hourly

Emissions

Speciation

Matrix

Gridding

Matrix

Control

Matrix Model-ready

Emissions

Program Shows input or output File

Figure 5-1. Flow Diagram of Major SMOKE Processing Steps.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 44 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

5.1 Quality Assurance Components of Emissions Modeling

The quality assurance (QA) steps for the emissions modeling process has been divided into the four major classifications defi ned in the sections below.

5.1.1 Modeling QA

Modeling QA involves performing data quality checks, assuring simulation accuracy, and recognizing and identifying problems as they ha ppen; it is the proces s of looking for glaring faults in the model input and output data (I/O ) and determining whethe r the input data are producing the desired results. Scruti ny of the I/O using standard st atistical analyses can reveal problems in the data and/or the model setup. Usi ng a standard approach for analyzing emissions model I/O establishes reference poi nts to use when scrutinizing the data. Seeking these indicators of correct model performance allows project personnel to determine the accuracy of the

simulations and whether faults in the data or model configuration exist.

5.1.2 System QA

System QA addresses model installation and conf iguration issues, data accounting, and ensures that the modeling systems are producing results that are reasonable and reproducible. The first step in this process is to properly benchmark the model and assuring that the installation is complete. Confirmation of configuration settin gs, compile options, and other system-related parameters must then occur and be documented pr ior to producing any m odel results. Archiving the model installation at set “freeze points” in th e project is also required in order to keep accurate records of the modeling installation and run scripts. A key feature of system QA is facilitating the reproduction of mode l results in the futu re and the ability to revert back to a previous configuration or insta llation after the model has been re vised or updated. In addition to thorough documentation, version control software is required for archiving model executables, run and configuration scripts, and important data files. Combining documentation of the modeling procedures with archives of the model installation and data files will ensure that the model installation and configura tion are correct and that past simulations are sufficiently documented and archived to allow their reproduction.

5.1.3 Gatekeeping and Outside Review

Gatekeeping and outside review is the process of ensuring that th e data entering and exiting the SMOKE modeling process meet a predetermined qua lity level. A gatekeeper screens model data before they pass from one major step of the modeling process to the next. In emissions QA, gatekeeping is applied to the em issions inventory and SMOKE input files on the front end of the modeling process, and to the SMOKE output files at the back end. A gate keeper (or gatekeeping team) is responsible for performing a series of reasonableness checks on both the input and output data streams. Outside reviewers are emi ssions experts who are not part of the VISTAS Modeling Team. They periodically review the en tire process—the emissions data, the modeling,Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 45 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

and the QA steps taken—using their judgment as experts to decide what to review and how to

review it.

5.1.4 Documentation

Documentation, a component that is common to all of the other three QA classifications, provides the record of the QA process. Establis hing a detailed set of requirements for documenting every step in the QA process will ensure not only that the documentation is created as expected but that the processes recorded by th e documentation are completed correctly. In addition to records or lists of completed QA steps, documentation refers to summaries and interpretations of emissions inventory re ports and analyses. Covering th e entire realm of the modeling process, QA documentation will include records of model configuration, details about data files, simulation records, and fi nal report generation.

5.2 Implementation of the QA System

5.2.1 The Emissions QA Team

The level of effort required to implement the VISTAS Emissions QA framework requires a team consisting of: a data gatekeeper (s), a production modele r(s), a QA manager, outside reviewers, and a project manager (See Sect ion 2.2.2.5 and Figure 2-1 for data flow and QA overview). Each

team member contributes a di fferent critical perspectiv e on the data and modeling.

• The Gatekeeper (or gatekeeping team ) is responsible for reviewing the SMOKE I/O data

streams for correctness. Before new datasets are used in SMOKE modeling, or new SMOKE output emissions datasets are us ed in air quality modeling, they must be reviewed by the gatekeeper. For all SMOKE input and output files, the gatekeeper will ensure that the data are complete, are formatted correctly, and pass reasonableness checks. Checking completeness entails examining the files for th e necessary data elemen ts, spatial coverage, and temporal extent. Data formats will be confirmed using the SMOKE manual to check ASCII files and using PAVE to check binary ne tCDF files, such as the meteorology inputs. Reasonableness checks consist of looking for glar ing errors in the file contents and ensuring

that the data make sense in the context of how they will be used and relative to similar or reference datasets. Issues that arise during the gate keeping process are reported to the project manager for resolution.

• The Production Modeler is responsible for receiving input data, maintaining the model run scripts, running the model per the work plan, producing default QA reports, delivering model output data, and assisting w ith compiling QA reports into summaries for documentation purposes. A Lead Modeler oversees the entire modeling process, performs the majority of the SMOKE modeling, and receives and ar chives input and output data. Secondary Modelers organize the SMOKE QA reports into emissions summaries for data QA and reporting, and generate custom QA summaries and reports for troubleshooting any problems encountered during the modeling process.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 46 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 12, 2004

• The QA Manager performs and documents all of the checks required for determining model accuracy and revealing errors. Th e QA Manager also ensures that the software is configured correctly and that the data and model are being archived consistently and correctly. Overseeing the production modele rs, the QA Manager verifies that SMOKE is being applied correctly and that all QA summaries are consistent with the relevant input data. Leading the documentation efforts, the QA Manager ensure s that all the necessary QA summaries are generated and certified and that they are compiled into th e project report.

• The Project Manager is ultimately responsible for the qu ality of the final products of the modeling process. Providing technical assistan ce to the production m odelers and clarifying any uncertainties about model input, configur ation, and operation for the QA Manager, the Project Manager addresses any questions in the modeling process. Working with the QA Manager, the Project Manager approves the results of all QA pro cedures, and thoroughly scrutinizes the QA summaries for problems to de termine whether the data are ready to be sent to the gate keepers and outside reviewers for final review before delivery to the air quality modelers. For the VISTAS work, the Project Manager is the liaison between the emissions modeling team and the VISTAS TAWG and in this role communicates any issues raised during the emissions QA process.

Figure 5-2 presents the QA fr amework developed by the VISTAS Modeling Team for SMOKE modeling. Identifying the specific participants in the VISTAS Modeling Te am for performing all of the tasks in the framework is the first step of the QA process for each new emissions modeling scenario. Two Production Modelers are shown in the diagram, with the Lead Modeler performing the SMOKE simulations and receiving the input data and the Secondary Modeler compiling the output of the SMOKE QA programs into the QA products for evaluating the quality of the simulations. Gatekeepers are po sitioned in the SMOKE input and output data streams to screen the data before they are used in either SMOKE or CMAQ modeling, respectively. Reviewers are solicited from out side the emissions modeling team on a volunteer basis to conduct periodic reviews/audits of the data and modeling process.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft)Page 47 of 67VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality ModelingRevision 0ENVIRON International CorporationNovember 8, 2004Figure 5-2.Diagram of VISTAS Modeling TeamApproach to SMOKE Modeling.VISTAS TAWGVISTASModeling TeamVISTASQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 48 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

6.0 METEOROLOGICAL MODELING

The EPA Models-3/CMAQ system is the primary regional ozone and partic ulate matter (PM) air quality model being used in VISTAS modeling. Meteorological input s for CMAQ are being generated by the VISTAS Meteorological Modeling Contractor using the MM5 meteorological model. The model will be applied for the entire year of 2002 on two grids: a continental scale domain with 36 km grid spacing and a regional-scale domain with 12 km grid spacing covering the eastern United States. The CMAQ model requir es inputs of three-dimensional gridded wind, temperature, humidity, cloud/pr ecipitation, and boundary layer parameters. The current version of CMAQ can only utilize output fields from the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5), developed and maintained by the Pennsylvania State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). MM5 is be ing used to develop hourly meteorological fields on the 36 km and 12 km grids.

A detailed protocol for utilizing MM5 as part of VISTAS has been prep ared. The procedures used for applying MM5 for VISTAS are based on an extensive evaluation of MM5 and a series of sensitivity tests. The MM5 protocol contains a detailed description of MM5, the VISTAS modeling domain, the MM5 physi cal configuration, and a mode l application approach. The protocol also presents a plan for evaluating th e performance of the m odel in replicating the evolution of observed winds, temperature, humidity, and boundary layer morphology to the

extent that resources and data avai lability allow; this will serve as the primary approach to assess the reliability of the meteorological fields to ad equately characterize the state of the atmosphere for input to CMAQ. Details on the VISTAS MM5 modeling can be found on the VISTS Meteorological Modeling website:

http://www.baronams.com/projects/VISTAS/

MM5 is an atmosphere model that has proven useful for air qual ity applications and has been used extensively in past local, state, regional, and national mo deling efforts. MM5 has undergone extensive peer-review, with all of its components continually undergoing development and scrutiny by the modeling community. MM5 is the most widely used public-domain prognostic model. In-depth descriptions of MM5 can be found in Dudhia ( 1993) and Grell et al. (1994), and at the following web site:

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5

.

7.0 CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM

EPA’s Models-3 CMAQ modeling system is the pr imary air quality modeling system used in the VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling activities.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 49 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

7.1 CMAQ Overview

For more than a decade, EPA has been deve loping the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with the ov erarching aim of producing a ‘One-Atmosphere’ air quality modeling system capable of addressi ng ozone, particulate matte r (PM), visibility and acid deposition within a common platform (Denni s, et al., 1996; Byun et al., 1998a; Byun and Ching, 1999, Pleim et al., 2003). The original ju stification for the Models-3 development emerged from the challenges posed by the 1990 Cl ean Air Act Amendments and EPA’s desire to develop an advanced modeling framework for ‘ho listic’ environmental modeling utilizing stateof-science representations of atmospheric processes in a high performance computing environment (Ching, et al., 1998). EPA completed the initial stage of development with Models3 and released the Community Multi-Scale Air Qu ality model (CMAQ) in mid-1999 as the initial operating science model under the Models-3 frame work (Byun et al., 1998b). The most recent rendition is CMAQ version 4.4, publicly released October 2004 and is the version that will be

used in the VISTAS Phase II Revised 2002 Base Case modeling (Altho ugh the Phase I modeling runs used CMAQ version 4.3).

CMAQ consists of a core Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and several pre-processors including the Meteorological-Chemistry Inte rface Processor (MCIP), initial and boundary conditions processors (ICON and BCON) and a phot olysis rates processor (JPROC). EPA is continuing to improve and develop new modules for the CMAQ model and typically provides a new release each year. In the past EPA has also provides patches for CMAQ as errors are discovered and corrected. More recently EP A has funded the Community Modeling and Analysis Systems (CMAS) cente r to support the coordination, upda te and distribution of the Models-3 system.

A number of features in CMAQ’s theoretical fo rmulation and technical implementation make the model well-suited for annual PM modeling. In CM AQ, the modal approach has been adapted to dynamically represent the PM size distribution using three log-normal modes (2 fine and 1 coarse). Transfer of mass between the aerosol a nd gas phases is assumed to be in equilibrium and all secondary aerosols (sulfate, nitrate, SOA) is assumed to be in the fine modes. The thermodynamics of inorganic aerosol compositi on are treated using the ISORROPIA module. Aerosol composition is coupled to mass transfer between the aerosol and gas phases. For aqueous phase chemistry, the RADM model is currently employed. This scheme includes

oxidation of SO 2 to sulfate by ozone, hydrogen peroxide, oxygen catalyzed by metals and radicals. The impact of clouds on the PM size distribution is treated empirically. For wet deposition processes, CMAQ uses the RADM/RPM approach. Particle dry deposition is included as well. CMAQ contains three options for treating secondary organic aerosol (SOA), latest being the Secondary Organic Aerosol Model (SORGAM) that was updated in August 2003

to be an reversible semi-volatile scheme wher eby VOCs can be converte d to condensable gases that can then form SOA and then evaporat e back into condensable gases depending on atmospheric conditions.

A description of the newest features implemented in CMAQ ver 4.4 (released October 2004) is available on the CMAS website (www.cmascenter.org). Many of these features are mentioned above; others pertain to details in the model’ s chemistry, transport, computer implementation,Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 50 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

and model operation. For the VISTAS Phase I modeling and the Phase II Initial 2002 CMAQ run version 4.3 (released August 2003) was use d, whereas for the Phase II Task 7 CB4/SAPRC sensitivity tests and Phase II Revised 2002 CM AQ runs Version 4.4beta (released March 2004) and 4.4, respectively, were used.

7.2 CMAQ Configuration for Phase II Modeling

One of the principal accomplishments in th e Phase I modeling was the identification and justification of the CMAQ science options recommended for Phase II modeling. We summarized the Phase I findings briefly in the intr oduction. In this secti on we briefly identify the main science options we recommend for annu al PM modeling with CMAQ, more details ate provided in the Modeling Protoc ols (ENVIRON, 2003a; 2004a). Th e model would be set up and exercised on the same nested 36/12 km grid do main used in Phase I, employing one-way grid nesting. That is, boundary conditions for the 12 km grid simulation are extracted from the 36 km run using the CMAQ BCON processor. A total of 19 vertical layers would be implemented, extending up to a region top of 100 mb (approximately 15 km AGL).

The PPM advection solver woul d be used along with the sp atially varying (Smagorinsky) horizontal diffusion approach and K-theory for vertical diffusion. MM5 meteorological output based on the Pleim-Xiu Land-Surface Model (LSM) and the ACM planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme will be used and the latest CM AQ Meteorological-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP2.2 for Phase I and MCIP2.3 for Phase II) would process the MM5 data using the “pass through” option. The CB4 gas-phase, RADM a queous-phase, and AERO3/ISORROPIA aerosol chemistry schemes are recommended for use in the initial CMAQ 2002 m odeling. Treatment of reversible secondary organic aerosols would be simulated by the SORGAM implementation in CMAQ (ver 4.3). Under the Phase I modeling, VISTAS evaluated three photochemical mechanisms: CB4, CB4-2002 and SAPRC99. CB4- 2002 produced nearly identical results as CB4 but took much longer to run since it is only implemented in the slower SMVGEAR chemistry solver, compared to CB4 that is also implemented in the faster EBI chemistry solver. Thus, CB4-2002 was dropped from consideration in Phase II. The Phase I comparisons of CB4 and SAPRC99 found they produced mostly similar but different model performance. However, one mechanism was not performing better than the other across al l species, sites and periods. The Phase I testing only evaluated the mechanism’s base case performance, not their response to

emission reductions. Given that CB4 runs twice as fast as SAPRC99, for Phase II it was decided to perform initial 2002 CMAQ modeling using CB4 and evaluate CB4 and SAPRC99 responses to emission reductions using the Phase I episodes.

7.3 Alternative Models

EPA’s guidance on model selection for PM2.5 SIPs and Regional Haze “reasonable progress demonstrations” do not identify a preferred photochemical grid modeling system, recognizing that at present there is “no single model which has been extensively te sted and shown to be clearly superior or easier to use than seve ral alternatives” (EPA, 2001, pg. 169.) The agency

recommends that models used for PM2.5 SIPS or RH reasonable progress requirements shouldQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 51 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

meet the requirements for alternative models. The CMAQ, CMAQ-AIM and CAMx modeling systems all meet these requirements.

We believe that there is potentially significan t value in including an alternative regional modeling system or multiple systems as an adjunct to the SMOKE/MM5/CMAQ system proposed as the mainstay of the Phase II analyses. Our testing of the CAMx model in Phase I and other recent PM2.5/regional haze applications demonstrates that the model is capable of producing results of comparable accuracy and re liability as CMAQ, given similar effort in preparing model inputs, diagnosing and im proving model performance and in conducting weight-of-evidence investigations. The Phase I testing of CMAQ-AIM model raised questions on whether it was performing corre ctly; the differences with CMAQ could not be explained

based on their differences in formulation with CMAQ-AIM pe rforming poorer than CMAQ. Accordingly, at this time we cannot reco mmend adopting CMAQ-AIM in Phase II and recommend VISTAS consider the parallel use of CAMx in the Phase II program for seven specific purposes:

• Diagnosis: To serve as an efficient diagnosti c tool addressing model performance issues that may arise in the establis hment of the CMAQ annual 2002 and episodic base cases. CAMx’s suite of diagnosti c probing tools plus it’s flexi-nesting algorithms make it an attractive tool fo r assisting in the diagnosis of CMAQ performance should this unexpected situation arise.

• Model Evaluation Corroboration: To provide corroboratio n of the base case model performance evaluation exercises to be pe rformed with CMAQ and help identify any compensatory errors in the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ modeling system.

• Emissions Control Response Corroboration: To provide corroboration of the response of the CMAQ modeling system to ge neric and specific future year emissions changes on modeled gas-phase and particulate aerosol co ncentrations and resultant regional haze impacts.

• Quantification of Model Uncertainty: To provide one estimate of the range of uncertainty that attends statements of CMAQ model performan ce in the annual and episodic base case simulations, and in the estimate of PM2.5 and visibility reductions associated with future emissions change scenarios.

• Alternative Science: CAMx contains alternative science algorithms that may elucidate model performance issues with CMAQ or provide an alternative approach for simulating aerosols.

• Consistency with Other RPOs: The Midwest RPO (MWRPO) may end up using CAMx for their regional haze modeling. As sources in the MWRPO likely influence visibility at Class I areas in VISTAS and vice versa, ha ving results from a common model would be useful for reconciling any differences.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 52 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

• Backup Contingency: To provide a ‘backstop’ model to CMAQ in the event that unforeseen difficulties with the primary m odel make it necessary to switch to an alternative ‘One-Atmosphere’ model at some point during Phase II.

The benefits of employing a pair of complimentar y state-of-science air qua lity models are thus quite significant and well worth considering. Especially considering that the same MM5 output (through MM5CAMx) and SMOKE output and CMAQ IC/BC files (through CMAQ-to-CAMx emissions and IC/BC converters) can be used to operate CAMx without performing any additional meteorological or emissions modeling. Accordingly, below we provide an overview of the CAMx regional photochemical/PM m odeling system and the science options

recommended for use in Phase II.

7.3.1 CAMx Overview

The Comprehensive Model with Extensions (CAM x) modeling system is a publicly available (www.camx.com) three-dimensional multi-scale photochemical/aerosol grid modeling system that is developed and maintained by ENVI RON International Cor poration. CAMx was developed with all new code during the late 1990s using modern and modul ar coding practices. This has made the model an ideal platform for the extension to treat a variety of air quality issues including ozone, particulate matter (PM), visibility, acid deposition, and air toxics. The flexible CAMx framework has also made it a convenient and robust host model for the implementation of a variety of mass balance and sensitivity analysis techniques including Process Analysis (IRR and IPR), Decoupled Direct Method (DDM), and the Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT). Designed originally to address multiscal e ozone issues from the urban- to regionalscale, CAMx has been widely used in recent year s by a variety regulatory agencies for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone SIP modeling studies. Key attributes of the CAMx model for simulating gas-phase chemistry include the following:

Two-way grid nesting that supports multi-levels of fully interactive grid nesting (e.g., 36/12/4/1.33 km).

• CB4 or SAPRC99 Chemical Mechanisms.

• Two chemical solvers, the CAMx Chemical Mechanism Compiler (CMC) Fast Solver or the highly accurate Implicit Explicit Hybrid (IEH) solver.

• Multiple numerical algorithms for horizontal transport including the Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM), Bott, and Smolarkiewicz advection solvers.

• Subgrid-scale Plume-in-Grid (PiG) algorithm to treat the near-source plume dynamics and chemistry from large NOx point source plumes.

• Ability to interface with a variety of me teorological models including the MM5 and RAMS prognostic hydrostatic meteorological models and the CALMET diagnostic meteorological model (others also compatible).Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 53 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

• The Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT) ozone apportionment technique that identifies the ozone contribution due to ge ographic source regions and source categories (e.g., mobile , point, biogenic, etc.).

• The Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) sensitivity method is implemented for

emissions and IC/BC to obtain first-order sensitivity coefficients for all gas-phase species.

• Treatment of particulate matter (PM) us ing an empirical aerosol thermodynamics algorithm.

Culminating extensive model development effort s at ENVIRON and other participating groups, the CAMx (ver 4.3+) code was released in th e autumn of 2003 as a truly “One-Atmosphere’ models that rigorously integrates the gas-phase ozone chemistry with the simulation of primary and secondary fine and course particulate aerosols. This ex tension of CAMx to treat PM

involved the addition of several science modules to represent important physical processes for aerosols. Noteworthy among these are:

• Two separate treatments of particul ate matter (PM), Mechanism 4 (M4) “oneatmosphere” treatment uses two size secti ons and science modules comparable to CMAQ (e.g., RADM aqueous-phase chemistry and ISORROPIA equilibrium) and a multi-section “full-science” approach using aerosol modules developed at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU).

• Size distribution is represented using th e Multi-component Aerosol Dynamics Model (MADM), which uses a sectional approach to represent the aerosol particle size distribution (Pilinis et al., 2000). MADM treats the effects of condensation/evaporation, coagulation and nucleation upon the particle size

distribution.

• Inorganic aerosol thermodynamics can be represented using ISORROPIA (Nenes et al, 1998; 1999) equilibrium approach with in MADM, or a fully dynamic or hybrid approach can also be used.

• Secondary organic aerosol thermodynamics are represented using the semi-volatile scheme of Strader and co-workers (1999).

• Aqueous-phase chemical reactions are m odeled either using the RADM module (like CMAQ) or the Variable Size-Resolution M odel (VRSM) of Fahey and Pandis (2001), which automatically determine whether wate r droplets can be repr esented by a single ‘bulk’ droplet-size mode or whether it is n ecessary to use fine and coarse droplet-size

modes to account for the different pH effects on sulfate formation.

CAMx (ver 4.3+) provides two ke y options to users interested in simulating PM. For CPUefficient annual PM modeling applications, CAMx may be run using Mechanism 4 (M4) with only two size sections (fine a nd coarse) and the efficient RADM bulk aqueous-phase module (asQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 54 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

used in CMAQ). Alternatively, more rigorous aer osol simulations (perhaps for shorter episode) may be addressed using the vers ion that treats N-size sections (N is typically 10) and the rigorous, but computationally-ext ensive CMU multi-section aqueous -phase chemistry module.

7.3.2 CAMx Configuration for Phase II Modeling

We recommend exercising CAMx (ver 4.10s) as a companion model to CMAQ using as many similar science options and input data sets as possible. However, in some instances, the CMAQ and CAMx model development teams chose different options for characterizing physical and chemical processes, or for implementing the gove rning equations on modern parallel computers. In these cases, we will utilize the science conf igurations embodied in the current release of CAMx. At this time VISTAS has not budgeted any resources in Phase II for CAMx modeling, however it remains an option if desired at a later date.

The latest version of CAMx (ver 4.10s) will be employed and the model will be set up and exercised on the same 36/12 km grid as CMAQ. However, CAMx would be run using two-way grid nesting. The base configuration of CAMx would use 19 vertical la yers that exactly match those used by CMAQ. The PPM advection solver would be us ed along with the spatially varying (Smagorinsky) horizontal diffusion appro ach. Vertical diffusion in CAMx would be modeled by K-theory. The MM5 simulation using the Pleim-Xiu Land-Surface Model (LSM) and the ACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) sc heme would be used in the CAMx base configuration using the MM5CAMx processor that is similar to the CMAQ MCIP2.2 “pass through” option of the MM5 data invoked. CAMx would be exercised with the CB4 gas-phase, RADM aqueous-phase, and CMU/ISORROPIA aer osol chemistry schemes. The SOAP secondary organic aerosol scheme would be used for the base configuration in CAMx.

Note that it may be desirable to exercise CAMx using its “full-science” configuration for selected periods to investigative sc ientific issues that may be of interest that can not be simulated by CMAQ, such as:

• The full sectional approach could be used to determine whether allowing secondary PM to grow into the coarse mode affects the model estimates;

• The model could be exercised with chemi cal active Sea Salt emissions, this could be important for fine particulat e and visibility at key coastal sites in the VISTAS domain, especially when looking at cl ean days or natural background; and

• The full sectional aqueous-phase chemis try module may be important for sulfate

formation.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 55 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

8.0 ASSESSMENTS AND OVERSIGHT

8.1 Assessment Responsibilities

The primary point of contact for VISTAS Modeli ng project assessment is that of the Project Manager (PM). This PM is available to the VI STAS Contracting Officer , Technical Contact, TAWG, external reviewers, and internal staff by direct contact through e-mail and phone and is

linked to each of the four VIST AS listservs (see Table 3-2). Th ese links provide timely reviews of the project experimental de sign, implementation, and interpretation of the experimental

results.

The assessments of overall project quality ar e provided from a number of different sources. Internal reviews of selected project compone nts are periodically performed by the Project Manager and Co-Principal Investigators. The resu lts of this and other routine (e.g., QC checks) and special reviews of project data qualit y are documented in the monthly reports.

The project team is committed to achieving and ma intaining the highest level of quality possible throughout the performance of this program. The modeling information generated will be both technically sound, and, where appropriate, lega lly defensible. The former is an obvious requirement but is not, in and of itself, sufficient to defend the data against an adversarial inquiry. The latter will address, through doc umentation, the level of quality achieved. The quality of the project data will be maintained not only through the development and use of data quality objectives (DQOs), which place numerical limits on the quality control indicators, but also through the use of subject ive science quality objectives.

Science quality objectives are used to provide evaluations of the quality of the research project and goals of the study. Evaluations of all research activities by inte rnal and external peer review will assure that the methodology, experimental pr ocesses, conclusions and recommendations provided by this project ar e scientifically sound.

8.2 Assessment Types and Usage

Assessments of the quality of the products ge nerated on this project will be made by:

• Conducting internal performan ce reviews of the critical co mponents of the experimental setup and data processing systems. Where applicable, adherence to SOPs will be

evaluated. The results of these reviews will contain any suggested corrective actions, and be appended to the reports ge nerated in this project.

• Independent peer reviews of thesis materi als, reports, and papers resulting from this project.

The VISTAS TAWG provides extern al review of all reports and plays an active role in the development of experimental ma trices and to review research progress and plans for future project tasks.Quality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 56 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

8.3 Assessment Criteria

The project assessment criteria address the extent to which th e modeling runs and experiments provide the quality of data needed to satisfy the objectives of this project. A major objective of this project consists of providi ng the data and information n eeded for evaluating and improving models for predicting the effects of emissions on air quality. Therefore, the evaluation process includes assessments of model uncertainties, the ex tent to which the proposed actions or system improvements can reduce these uncertainties, and es timates of the certainty of this work in providing the data of th e type and quality needed. Criteria fo r assessing data ut ility and quality will include the following:

• Utility of the type of measurements fo r model evaluation. For example, are model predictions of the measurements sensitive to the uncertainties in the mechanism that are being evaluated? Are the available resources be ing applied to the highe st priority types of

measurements?

• Degree of characterization of experimental conditions for modeling. For data to be useful for model evaluation, experiment al conditions must be suffic iently well characterized, so

that the data can be used for model eval uation without characterization uncertainties dominating the results.

• Accuracy, precision, and sensitivity of the me asurement data. The measurements in the concentration region of intere st should be sufficiently accu rate and precise to provide a meaningful test of model predictions.

• Procedures used to assure data quality, iden tify data not meeting qua lity objectives, and to minimize errors and other data quality problems.

• Degree to which the modeling appropriately in corporates the characterization results in the inputs, and the analysis of the modeli ng results appropriately take into account

characterization and measurement uncertainties and biases.

• Degree to which the experimental pro cedures, measurement methods, and data processing and analyses, and m odeling methods are documented.

9.0 REFERENCES

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Demonstrations for the 8- hr Ozone NAAQS”. Draft (May 1999), U.S. EnvironmentalQuality Assurance Project Plan (Draft) Page 59 of 62 VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Revision 0 ENVIRON International Corporation November 8, 2004

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EPA. 2003f. A Conceptual Model to Adjust Fugitive Dust Emissions to Account for Near

Source Particle Removal in Grid Model Applications , prepared by Tom Pace, U.S. EPA, August 22, 2003. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch /invent/statusfugdustemissions_082203.pdf

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