Technical Support Document (TSD) for Emissions Inventories for the State Implementation PlanRevision: NOx VehicleEmissionBudgetRevisions Based on MOVES 2010a

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

Submitted by the Bureau ofAir Quality PennsylvaniaDepartment ofEnvironmental Protection

TSD Prepared December 2014 by Jessica 

### L. Fry Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

Reviewed by Alice H. Chow, Associate Director Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

### I. Introduction

The purpose ofthis document is to provide atechnical summary ofthe Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted withthe State ImplementationPlan (SIP) Revision: NOx Motor VehicleEmissionBudget Revisions Based on MOVES 2010afor Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan submitted by the PennsylvaniaDepartment ofEnvironmental Protection (PADEP). The Scranton/Wilkes-BarreNonattainment Area (NAA) consists of Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming counties in Pennsylvania (PA). PADEP is updatingtheirNOx motor vehicle emissions budgets submitted intheir 1997 Eight-hour Ozone SIP for the NAA for the years 2009 and 2018 using MOVES2010a and subsequentlyreviewing and updating (ifneeded) the NOx emissions inventories for point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. Emission inventories in the NAA SIP revision

are used to documentthatthe SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when previous onroad mobile emissions inventories are replaced with MOVES201 Oa inventories. Theplan should also demonstrate that growth and control strategy assumptions for point, nonpoint, and nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid. This reviewis to confirmthat any minor updates have not changed the overall conclusions of the SIP. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Alice Chow, Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or viaemail at chow.alice@epa.gov.



### II 2009 and 2018 Emissions Inventories

In the NAA SIP revision, emissions inventories are used to support the States claim that the area is continuing to attain the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard as set forth in the SIP when using MOVES 201Oa for the onroadmobileemissions inventory. In orderto do this, the state should reviewthe point, nonpoint, and nonroadNOx emissions inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim (2009) and attainment (2018) years and determine ifchanges in growth and control strategy assumptions affectthe conclusion thatthe area will remain in compliance with the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard.

In the NAA SIP revision, PADEP analyzed the NOx point source emissions estimates for 2009 and 2018 submitted withthe Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS NAA SIP. PADEP has resubmitted point source emissions inventories for 2009 and 2018. For the 2009 point source inventory, PADEP submitted actual2009 emissions from individual facilities inthe area. The emissions were submitted in tons/year and tons/day. For the 2018 projected inventories PADEP used information developed for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and did a straight-line interpolationbetweenthe 2007 MARAMAbaseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory. Itwas concludedthatthe emissionshad been overestimated in the SIP and that the area will continueto bein attainment with the new emission estimates. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.Pennsylvania conducted an analysis ofthe NOx emissions estimates for nonpoint

sources submitted for 2009 and 2018 with the 1997 ozoneNAAQS NAA SIP to determine ifthenonpointNOx emissions inventory needed to be updated for this revision. Forthe 2009 nonpoint source emissions Pennsylvaniacompared U.S. Department of Commerce, BureauofCensus, and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. DepartmentofEnergy actual growth from 2002-2009 to the growth estimates used in the NAA SIP. Pennsylvania concluded that updated growth factors showthat growth was over-predicted in the original maintenance plan and therefore the nonpoint emissions are notbeing updated. Since the approval ofthe NAA Ozone Maintenance Plan, Lackawanna and Wyoming Counties have experienced Marcellus Shale natural gas drilling activity. Marcellus Shale activity was minimal in 2009 and did not exist in 2004. PADEP has added emissions into the emission projections for 2018 to account for this activity. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NOx submitted for 2009 and 2018 intheNAA SIP were calculated using USEPA's NONROAD2005 Model. Pennsylvania compared growth estimates used in the NONROAD2005 to the growth estimates in the
currentNONROAD2008a. These comparisons along with new standards, fleet turnover, and the effects ofthe recession led Pennsylvania to the conclusion that the general downward trend inNOx emissions in this sector supports the conclusion thatthe area will continueto maintain compliance withthe eight-hour ozone standard and therefore no revisions were made. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

IntheNAA SIP revision, onroad emissions were estimated using the MOVES2010a model by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultant to the Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation (PennDOT). PADEP revised the 2004 and 2009 onroad NOx emissions inventories and the 2018 projection inventory for the Reading Area SIP revision. Pennsylvaniaused the same StatisticalEvaluation of Projected Traffic method for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles travelled. New input files for use in MOVES 2010a were developed using the local data from PennDOT, with some inputs being developed by the software PPSUITE, which is a tool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates based upon accepted transportation engineering methodologies. Mobile emissions values were given in units oftons per summer day. OAMA staffreviewed the emissions and believes them to be reasonable.