Technical Support Document (TSD) for 

Emissions Inventories for the State Implementation Plan Revision: 

NOx Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on MOVES 2010a 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA 

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area 

Submitted by the Bureau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection 

TSD Prepared December 2014 by 

Jessica L. Fry 

Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3 

1650 Arch Street 

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103 

Reviewed by Alice H. Chow, Associate Director 

Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40) 
I. Introduction 

The purpose of this document is to provide a technical summary of the Office of 

Air Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review of the emissions inventories submitted 

with the State Implementation Plan (SIP) Revision: NOx Motor Vehicle Emission Budget 

Revisions Based on MOVES 2010a for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone 

Maintenance Plan submitted by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 

Protection (PADEP). The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Nonattainment Area (NAA) consists of 

Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming counties in Pennsylvania (PA). PADEP is 

updating their NOx motor vehicle emissions budgets submitted in their 1997 Eight-hour 

Ozone SIP for the NAA for the years 2009 and 2018 using MOVES2010a and 

subsequently reviewing and updating (if needed) the NOx emissions inventories for point, 

nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. Emission inventories in the NAA SIP revision 

are used to document that the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when 

previous onroad mobile emissions inventories are replaced with MOVES20 1 Oa 

inventories. The plan should also demonstrate that growth and control strategy 

assumptions for point, nonpoint, and nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid. This 

review is to confirm that any minor updates have not changed the overall conclusions of 

the SIP. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Alice 

Chow, Associate Director, Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or 

via email at chow.alice@epa.gov. 

II 2009 and 2018 Emissions Inventories 

In the NAA SIP revision, emissions inventories are used to support the States 

claim that the area is continuing to attain the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard as set forth 

in the SIP when using MOVES 201 Oa for the onroadmobile emissions inventory. In 

order to do this, the state should review the point, nonpoint, and nonroad NOx emissions 

inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim (2009) and attainment (20 18) years and 

determine if changes in growth and control strategy assumptions affect the conclusion 

that the area will remain in compliance with the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard. 

In the NAA SIP revision, PADEP analyzed the NOx point source emissions 

estimates for 2009 and 2018 submitted with the Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS NAA SIP. 

PADEP has resubmitted point source emissions inventories for 2009 and 2018. For the 

2009 point source inventory, PADEP submitted actual2009 emissions from individual 

facilities in the area. The emissions were submitted in tons/year and tons/day. For the 

2018 projected inventories PADEP used information developed for the MARAMA 2011 

regional modeling effort and did a straight-line interpolation between the 2007 

MARAMA baseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory. It was 

concluded that the emissions had been overestimated in the SIP and that the area will 

continue to be in attainment with the new emission estimates. OAMA staff reviewed the 

analysis and believes it is reasonable. 
Pennsylvania conducted an analysis of the NOx emissions estimates for nonpoint 

sources submitted for 2009 and 2018 with the 1997 ozone NAAQS NAA SIP to 

determine ifthe nonpoint NOx emissions inventory needed to be updated for this revision. 

For the 2009 nonpoint source emissions Pennsylvania compared U.S. Department of 

Commerce, Bureau of Census, and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. 

Department of Energy actual growth from 2002-2009 to the growth estimates used in the 

NAA SIP. Pennsylvania concluded that updated growth factors show that growth was 

over-predicted in the original maintenance plan and therefore the nonpoint emissions are 

not being updated. Since the approval of the NAA Ozone Maintenance Plan, 

Lackawanna and Wyoming Counties have experienced Marcellus Shale natural gas 

drilling activity. Marcellus Shale activity was minimal in 2009 and did not exist in 2004. 

PADEP has added emissions into the emission projections for 2018 to account for this 

activity. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable. 

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NOx submitted for 2009 and 2018 

in the NAA SIP were calculated using USEPA's NONROAD2005 Model. Pennsylvania 

compared growth estimates used in the NONROAD2005 to the growth estimates in the 

current NONROAD2008a. These comparisons along with new standards, fleet turnover, 

and the effects of the recession led Pennsylvania to the conclusion that the general 

downward trend in NOx emissions in this sector supports the conclusion that the area will 

continue to maintain compliance with the eight-hour ozone standard and therefore no 

revisions were made. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable. 

In the NAA SIP revision, onroad emissions were estimated using the 

MOVES2010a model by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultant to the Pennsylvania 

Department ofTransportation (PennDOT). PADEP revised the 2004 and 2009 onroad 

NOx emissions inventories and the 2018 projection inventory for the Reading Area SIP 

revision. Pennsylvania used the same Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic method 

for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles travelled. New input files for use in 

MOVES 2010a were developed using the local data from PennDOT, with some inputs 

being developed by the software PPSUITE, which is a tool for estimating speeds and 

processing emissions rates based upon accepted transportation engineering 

methodologies. Mobile emissions values were given in units oftons per summer day. 

OAMA staff reviewed the emissions and believes them to be reasonable.