OCS Study MMS 2002-047

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME I

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas – Fault Tree Method

MMS Contract Number 01-00-PO-17199

August, 2002

By

Bercha International Inc.

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

 U.S. Department of the Interior

 Minerals Management Service

 Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region 

 
OCS Study MMS 2002-047

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME I

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas – Fault Tree Method

MMS Contract Number 01-00-PO-17199

August, 2002

Principal Investigator: Dr. Frank G. Bercha, P.Eng.

Bercha International Inc.

2926 Parkdale Boulevard N.W.

Calgary, Alberta, T2N 3S9, Canada

Email: bgroup@berchagroup.com

ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF SPONSORSHIP

This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service

(MMS), Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, under Contract No.

01-00-PO-17199, as part of the MMS Alaska Environmental Studies Program.

DISCLAIMER

The opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report or product are

those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior,

nor does mention of products constitute endorsement or recommendations for use by the Federal

Government. 
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

i

ABSTRACT

Oil spill occurrence estimates were generated for several expected future oil and gas

development scenarios (including exploration, production, and abandonment) in the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sale regions. Because

sufficient historical data on offshore oil spills for these regions do not exist, an oil spill

occurrence model based on fault tree methodology was developed and applied. Using the

fault trees, base data from the Gulf of Mexico were modified and augmented to represent

expected Arctic offshore oil spillage frequencies. Three principal spill occurrence

indicators, as follows, were quantified:

ß Annual spill frequency

ß Annual spill frequency per barrel produced

ß Spill index, the product of spill size and spill frequency

These indicators were quantified for the following spill sizes:

ß Small - = 50 < 100 bbl

ß Medium - = 100 < 1,000 bbl

ß Large - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

ß Huge - = 10,000 bbl

Quantification was carried out for each future year for four different Beaufort Sea

development scenarios, ranging in duration up to 38 years, and for two Chukchi Sea

scenarios of 10-year duration. In addition, comparative scenarios for non-Arctic locations

were formulated and analyzed for oil spill occurrence. Generally, it was found that the

non-Arctic spill indicators were likely to be significantly higher than those for similar

scenarios in the Arctic. The computations were carried out using a Monte Carlo process

to permit the inclusion of estimated uncertainties in the Arctic effects. A wide range of

details for each scenario was generated, including the following:

ß Expected time history of spill occurrences over the scenario life.

ß Spill occurrence variations by spill volumes in the above spill size ranges.

ß Spill occurrence variation by spill cause such as boat anchoring or ice

gouging.

ß Spill occurrence contribution from each main facility type, including

pipelines, platforms, and wells.

ß Comparison of spill occurrence predictions between Arctic and non-Arctic

scenarios.

ß The variability in the results due to uncertainties in the Arctic effects

introduced, expressed as cumulative distribution functions and statistical

measures.

In the final report, a detailed description of the methodology, results, and conclusions and

recommendations is given, as well as a section on limitations of the study.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Grateful acknowledgement for funding and direction is made to MMS Alaska OCS

Region. In particular, the following MMS personnel are acknowledged together with

their roles:

ß Dr. Dick Prentki, Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative

ß Jim Craig, Resource Evaluation Section

ß Caryn Smith, Oil-Spill-Risk-Analysis Coordinator

ß Cheryl Anderson, MMS Spill Database Coordinator

ß Wallace Adcox, Contracting Officer

ß Warren Horowitz, Environmental Studies GIS Coordinator

ß Dennis Hinnah, Office of Field Operations

This work was carried out by the Bercha Group with assistance from S.L. Ross

Environmental Consultants on the historical data assimilation. Key personnel on the

project team were as follows:

ß Dr. Frank G. Bercha, Project Manager and Principal Engineer, Bercha Group

ß Dr. Seymour L. Ross, Oil Spill Specialist, S.L. Ross Environmental

Consultants

ß Dr. Norman Davies, Statistical Specialist, Cambridge University, UK

ß Milan Cerovšek, Reliability Engineering Specialist, Bercha Group

ß Archie C. Churcher, Offshore Operations Specialist, Bercha Group

ß Wesley Abel, Offshore Engineering Specialist, Bercha Group

This work is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Norman Davies, who regrettably passed

away before its completion.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Summary of Work Done

Oil spill occurrence estimators were generated for several expected future oil and gas

development scenarios (including exploration, production, and abandonment) in the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sale regions. Because

sufficient historical data on offshore oil spills for these regions do not exist, an oil spill

occurrence model based on fault tree methodology was developed and applied. Using the

fault trees, base data from the Gulf of Mexico were modified and augmented to represent

expected Arctic offshore oil spillage frequencies. Three principal spill occurrence

indicators, as follows, were quantified:

ß Annual spill frequency

ß Annual spill frequency per barrel produced

ß Spill index, the product of spill size and spill frequency

These indicators were quantified for the following spill sizes:

ß Small (S) - = 50 < 100 bbl

ß Medium (M) - = 100 < 1,000 bbl

ß Large (L) - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

ß Huge (H) - = 10,000 bbl

Quantification was carried out for each future year for four different Beaufort Sea

development scenarios, ranging in duration up to 38 years, and for two Chukchi Sea

scenarios of 10-year duration. In addition, comparative scenarios for non-Arctic locations

were formulated and analyzed for oil spill occurrence. Generally, it was found that the

non-Arctic spill indicators were likely to be significantly higher than those for similar

scenarios in the Arctic. The computations were carried out using a Monte Carlo process

to permit the inclusion of estimated uncertainties in the Arctic effects. A wide range of

details for each scenario was generated, including the following:

ß Expected time history of spill occurrences over the scenario life.

ß Spill occurrence variations by spill volumes in the above spill size ranges.

ß Spill occurrence variation by spill cause such as boat anchoring or ice

gouging.

ß Spill occurrence contribution from each main facility type, including

pipelines, platforms, and wells.

ß Comparison of spill occurrence predictions between Arctic and non-Arctic

scenarios.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

iv

ß The variability in the results due to uncertainties in the Arctic effects

introduced, expressed as cumulative distribution functions and statistical

measures.

In the final report, a detailed description of the methodology, results, and conclusions and

recommendations is given, as well as a section on limitations of the study.

B. Conclusions

B.1 Conclusions on Spill Indicator Trends

The three spill occurrence indicators – annual frequency, annual frequency per barrel

produced, and spill index – exhibit a wide range of values varying with location, scenario

year, facility composition, and spill size. For the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea locations,

comparative non-Arctic scenarios were also postulated and analyzed.

B.1.1 Spill Occurrence Indicator Variations by Spill Size and Location

How do spill indicators for the different scenarios and for their non-Arctic counterparts

vary by spill size and location? Table 1 summarizes the spill indicator values for

representative years. Representative years are chosen as the peak production years.

Figures 1 and 2 show the spill size composition associated with each scenario

representative year chosen. The total values of each spill index are also given in a

rectangle in the bottom right hand corner of each pie chart. The following can be

observed from Figures 1 and 2 and Table 1.

ß Each spill indicator for Beaufort Sea Sale 1, 2, and 3 is similar in value. The

indicators are higher for the composite “Sale All” scenario (Table 1).

ß Chukchi Sea spill indicators are all higher than Beaufort Sea indicators (Table 1).

ß Spill frequency per year and per barrel produced decreases significantly with

increasing spill size for all scenarios (Figures 1 and 2). The spill frequency and

spill frequency per barrel proportions are the same for any given year. Their

absolute value differs only because the latter is divided by the annual production

volume.

ß The spill index increases dramatically with spill size for all scenarios (Table 1 and

Figures 1 and 2).

ß All non-Arctic scenario spill indicators are greater than their Arctic counterparts.

Non-Arctic spill frequencies are approximately 40% greater; spill indices, 8%

greater for the non-Arctic scenarios (Table 1).

In addition, the unit Arctic oil spill frequencies for pipelines show a decrease with

increasing water depth. That is, pipeline failures per km- yr are highest for shallow water

and lowest for deep water. Thus, given the same size and length of pipeline in shallow

and deep water, the spill indicators for deep water pipelines would be lower than those

for shallow water pipelines. The opposite trend was observed to apply to platforms. No

water depth effect was introduced for wells.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

v

Table 1

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

Year

2016

Year

2019

Year

2024

Year

2020

Year

2020

Year

2010

Year

2010

Year

2010

SPILL INDICATORS

Spill Size

bbl x 1000

Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale All

Sale All

Non

Arctic

Base

Case

High

Case

High C

Non

Arctic

SM 9.97 10.17 9.84 29.98 43.90 37.66 70.18 95.17

L 4.53 4.42 4.07 13.02 17.83 15.23 25.34 36.70

H 2.39 2.34 2.21 6.93 8.31 7.68 14.38 17.85

Spill Frequency

per 103 years

All 16.88 16.93 16.12 49.93 70.04 60.58 109.91 149.72

SM 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.40 0.59 0.41 0.31 0.42

L 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.17 0.11 0.16

H 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.08

Spill Frequency

per 109 bbl

produced

All 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.67 0.94 0.66 0.48 0.66

SM 2 2 2 6 9 8 13 19

L 28 27 26 81 102 92 171 218

H 170 169 165 505 529 534 1150 1211

Spill Index [bbl]

(Product of spill frequency

and mean spill size)

All 200 199 193 592 640 633 1335 1448
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

vi

Figure 1

Beaufort Sea ‘Sale All’ Spill Indicators – Year 2024

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

26%

60% 14%

SM L H

0.67

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

1%

14%

85%

SM L H

592

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

60%

26%

14%

SM L H 49.93
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

vii

Figure 2

Chukchi Sea ‘High Case’ Spill Indicators – Year 2010

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000

64%

23%

13%

SM L H

109.9

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size X 1000

64%

23%

13%

SM L H

0.48

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill Size x 1000

1%

14%

85%

SM L H

1335
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

viii

B.1.2 Facility Contributions to Spill Occurrence Indicators

How do the spill indicators vary by facility type for representative scenarios? The

contributions of spill indicators by facility have also been summarized for representative

scenario years. Figures 3 and 4 gives the relative component contributions, in absolute

value and percent, for each of the main facility types; namely, pipelines (P/L), platforms,

and wells. Platform spills do not include blowouts. Blowouts are the only spill events

categorized under well spills. The following may be noted from these figures:

ß For both the Beaufort and Chukchi scenarios, platforms contribute the most (50%

and 61% respectively) to the two spill frequency indicators, but the least (5% and

6% respectively) to the spill index (Figure 3 and 4).

ß Pipelines in the Beaufort scenarios are next in relative contribution to spill

frequencies (31%) and intermediate in contribution to spill index (10%) (Figure

3).

ß The relative contribution of pipelines to spill frequencies in the Chukchi,

however, are approximately the same (19%) as contributions of wells (20%)

(Figure 4).

ß Wells are by far the highest contributors to spill index in the Beaufort and

Chukchi Seas, at 85% and 89% respectively, while platforms and wells are each

responsible for 10% or less contribution to the spill index (Figures 3 and 4).

ß It can be concluded that platforms are likely to have the most, but smaller spills,

while wells will have the least number, but largest spills. Pipelines will be in

between, with a tendency towards more spills than wells, but less or about the

same number as platforms. Pipeline spill volumes will tend to be greater than (in

Beaufort) or similar in size (in Chukchi) to platform spills.

B.1.3 Projected Annual Variations of Spill Occurrence Indicators

How do spill indicators vary over the development life cycle? Figure 5 shows the

composite Beaufort Sea scenario annual variation in spill indicators over the expected

development lifetime. Generally, spill frequencies and the spill index can be seen to

follow the facility build-up and phase-out, as they are directly proportional to facility

quantities. Spill frequency per barrel produced, however, continues to rise beyond the

peak production year. The lack of fall of spills per billion barrels produced in years after

peak production is partially artificial. The development scenarios used by MMS in

environmental analyses (and used in this report) assume pipelines, platforms, and wells

are abandoned at a rate lower than the rate of decrease in production. This leads to the

artifact that as production goes to zero, spills per barrel produced increase to infinity. The

artifact disappears when spill rates are summed or normalized over the life of the fields.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

ix

Figure 3

Beaufort Sea ‘Sale All’ Spill Indicators – Year 2024

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

50%

31%

19%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.67

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

10% 5%

85%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 592

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

31%

50%

19%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 49.93
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

x

Figure 4

Chukchi Sea ‘High Case’ Spill Indicators – Year 2010

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

19%

61% 20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 109.9

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

19%

61% 20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.48

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

6% 5%

89%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 1335
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xi

Figure 5

Beaufort Sea Composite Scenario Annual Variation

in Arctic and Non-Arctic Spill Occurrence Indicators

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Non Arctic

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xii

B.1.4 Spill Indicator Statistical Variance

The variance introduced into the spill occurrence indicators by the incorporation of Arctic

effects was numerically evaluated. Figure 6 shows typical distributions of the resulting

indicators, in this case for the Beaufort Sea composite (All Sales) scenario. The slope of

each line is an indicator of its variance. Specifically, it was found that for all spills the

standard deviation ranged from 12% to 15% of the mean, while the upper and lower

bound (95th percentile and 5th percentile, respectively) ranged from 20% to 30%, with the

smaller variances corresponding to the Beaufort Sea scenarios and the large ones to the

Chukchi Sea scenarios. Upper (95%) and lower (5%) bounds, however, varied as much as

20 to 50% and 20 to 35% of the mean. Since many of the variations in the Arctic inputs

ranged in excess of plus or minus 80% of the mean value, the relatively small variance of

the indicators suggest that the total model is quite robust; large variances in inputs cause

only small variances in outputs. However, this small variance relates only to the Arctic

effects; variance in historical spill size and frequency was considered to be zero. Thus,

the variances discussed here characterize the uncertainties associated with the Arctic

effects incorporated through the fault tree methodology in this study.

B.2 Conclusions on the Methodology and Its Applicability

An analytical tool for the prediction of oil spill occurrence indicators for systems without

history has been developed based on the utilization of fault tree methodology. Although

the results generated are voluminous, they are essentially transparent, simple, and easy to

understand. The analytical tool developed is also quite transparent, very efficient in terms

of computer time and input-output capability, and user friendly for users that are

generally familiar with the process. In addition, the basic model is setup so that any input

variables can be entered as distributions; the model presented in this study only uses

distributed values of the Arctic effect inputs.

A wealth of information that can be utilized for the optimal planning and regulation of

future developments is generated by the analytical tool. Key aspects of the analytical tool

capability may be summarized as follows:

ß Ability to generate expected and mean values as well as their variability in

rigorous numerical statistical format.

ß Use of verifiable input data based on MMS historical spill data and statistics.

ß Ability to independently vary the impacts of different causes on the spill

occurrences as well as add new causes such as some of those that may be

expected for the Arctic or other new environments.

ß Ability to generate spill occurrence indicator characteristics such as annual

variations, facility contributions, spill size distributions, and spill causes.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xiii

Figure 6

Typical Spill Occurrence Indicator Variance Graphs

 Spill Frequency CDF All Sales Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All Spill Sizes

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF All sales Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl 

Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All spill Sizes

 Spill Index CDF Sale All Sales 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium

Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

All Spill Sizes
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xiv

ß Ability to generate comparative spill occurrence indicators such as those of

comparable scenarios in more temperate regions. The model developed provides a

basis for estimating each Arctic effect’s importance through sensitivity analysis as

well as propagation of uncertainties.

ß Capability to quantify uncertainties rigorously, together with their measures of

variability.

C. Limitations of Methodology and Results

C.1 General Description of Limitations

During the work, a number of limitations in the input data, the scenarios, the application

of the fault tree methodology, and finally the oil spill occurrence indicators themselves

have been identified. These shortcomings are summarized in the following paragraphs.

C.2 Limitations of Input Data

Two categories of input data were used; namely the historical spill data and the Arctic

effect data. Although a verifiable and optimal historical spill data set has been used, the

following shortcomings may be noted:

ß Gulf of Mexico (OCS) historical data bases were provided by MMS and used

as a starting point for the fault tree analysis; however, some inconsistencies

were identified in these databases as discussed in Appendix A, Section A.2.4.

ß Only the historical spill frequency point value was utilized, since adequate

data were not provided to create distributions of these frequencies.

ß Several ranges of spill sizes were analyzed, but only the mean value of each

spill size range was used to characterize representative spill size for each

range. Spill size distribution data for each spill size range was available, but

was not used in the interest of restricting the uncertainties to the Arctic effects.

ß The assessment of the variability or statistical properties of the GOM

historical data is a significant study in itself, which is expected to be carried

out in the companion study being conducted in parallel with the present work

ß The Arctic effects include modifications in causes associated with the

historical data set as well as additions of spill causes unique to the Arctic

environment. Quantification of existing causes for Arctic effects was done in a

relative cursory way restricted to engineering judgement.

ß A reproducible but relatively elementary analysis of gouging and scour effects

was carried out.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xv

ß Upheaval buckling and thaw settlement effect assessments were included on

the basis of an educated guess; no engineering analysis was carried out for the

assessment of frequencies to be expected for these effects.

ß No Arctic effects were estimated for the wells, which were considered to

blowout with frequencies the same as those for the GOM.

C.3 Scenarios

The scenarios are those developed for use in the MMS Alaska OCS Region

Environmental Impact Statements for Oil and Gas Lease Sales. As estimated they appear

reasonable and were incorporated in the form provided. There are two possible

shortcomings of the scenarios as follows:

ß Distributed values for the key quantities were not provided, thus precluding

their incorporation as distributions in the Monte Carlo analysis.

ß The facility abandonment rate is significantly lower than the rate of decline in

production.

C.4 Fault Tree Methodology

Generally, the fault tree methodology was limited primarily by the shortcomings in input

data discussed above.

ß The primary method for assessing uncertainties was restricted to the fault tree

module, which incorporates the uncertainties or bounds assigned to the Arctic

effects. The treatment of uncertainties could be expanded to incorporate

distributions in volume of spills, and the original historical frequencies.

ß The treatment of uncertainties was carried out utilizing a Monte Carlo process,

which requires an add-in (called @Risk©) to the Excel spreadsheet within

which the algorithms have been programmed. For some users, this might be

slightly arcane; accordingly, it may be desirable to have two versions, the

Monte Carlo version which gives more rigorous results and is used for results

in the body of this report, and an expected value version, which may be

utilized for rough estimates. Appendix C gives the detailed results and

calculations for the Monte Carlo model; Appendix D gives those from the

expected value model.

ß The Monte Carlo results give higher oil spill occurrence indicators than the

expected value results. This is due to the skewness of the Arctic effect

distributed values, which are inputs to the Monte Carlo calculations.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xvi

C.5 Limitations of Indicators Generated

The following comments can be made on limitations associated with the indicators that

have been generated.

ß The indicators have inherited the deficiencies in the input and scenario data

noted above. Indicators should be viewed primarily as trend indicators of the

expected values and their distributions for Arctic developments.

ß The indicator distribution shows relatively small variability – this is primarily

because the only variability introduced is that of the Arctic effects.

ß The model generating the indicators is fundamentally a linear model which

ignores the effects of scale, of time variations such as the learning and wearout curves (Bathtub curve), and production volume non-linear effects.

ß The expected value (simpler) calculation results (given in Appendix D) should

be used with caution since they underestimate the spill indicators. The

underestimation ranges from 3 to 76%. Appendix D gives all the expected

value calculations. The body of the report is based on the Monte Carlo results

given in Appendix C.

D. Recommendations

D.1 Recommendations on Direct Application of Results from This Study

The results of this study can be applied directly in two principal ways; namely, on an

annual per barrel produced basis, and on a total production volume basis.

On an annual basis, the peak production year oil spill frequency per barrel produced can

be used to calculate corresponding annual spill frequencies for other annual production

rate scenarios. This is done simply by multiplying the appropriate spill frequency per

billion barrels produced from Table 1 by the subject annual production rate.

To apply the results on a total production volume basis, the following steps can be used:

ß For the desired spill size range and facility component (or all facilities), add

together the annual spill frequencies for each year of the production life.

ß Divide the sum of the frequencies by the total production volume. This

provides the number of spills per barrel produced for the entire development.

ß For another development, multiply the above spills per barrel produced by the

other development’s total production volume.

ß The resultant is the expected number of spills of the desired spill size range

and for the desired facility component for the total production life of the other

development.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xvii

D.2 General Recommendations

The following recommendations based on the work may be made:

ß Utilize the oil spill occurrence indicator model to generate additional model

validation information, including direct application to specific non-Arctic

scenarios, such as GOM projects, which have an oil spill statistical history.

ß Utilize the oil spill occurrence indicator model in a sensitivity mode to

identify the importance of different Arctic effect variables introduced to

provide a prioritized list of those items having the highest potential impact on

Arctic oil spills.

ß Use GOM historical data together with its measures of spill size variance and

setup the Monte Carlo model to run with these measures of spill size variance.

ß Generalize the model so that it can be run both in an expected value and a

distributed value (Monte Carlo) form with the intent that expected value form

can be utilized without the Monte Carlo add-in for preliminary estimates and

sensitivity analyses, while for more comprehensive rigorous studies, the

Monte Carlo version can be used. All calculations in this report are based on

the Monte Carlo version.

ß Finally, convert the current oil spill occurrence indicator model into a user

friendly software package, which can be used for the assessment of oil spill

occurrence indicators and their characteristics for any designated scenario.

The software package should include the following:

ß Modular structure

ß User manual

ß Online help

ß Password protected parameters and algorithms

ß Extensive graphical outputs
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xviii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

VOLUME I

CHAPTER PAGE

Abstract.................................................................................................................................i

Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................. ii

Executive Summary............................................................................................................ iii

Table of Contents............................................................................................................xviii

List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... xx

List of Figures...................................................................................................................xxi

Glossary of Terms and Acronyms....................................................................................xxii

1 Introduction ......................................................................................................1.1

1.1 General Introduction.............................................................................................1.1

1.2 Study Objectives...................................................................................................1.1

1.3 Study Area Definition...........................................................................................1.2

1.4 Scope of Work......................................................................................................1.2

1.5 Work Organization................................................................................................1.5

1.6 Outline of Report ..................................................................................................1.7

2 Historical Data ....................................................................................................2.1

2.1 Approaches to Historical Data ..............................................................................2.1

2.2 Pipeline Oil Spill Data ..........................................................................................2.1

2.3 Platform Spill Data ...............................................................................................2.3

2.4 Well Oil Blowout Data .........................................................................................2.3

2.5 Arctic Effects Historical Data...............................................................................2.3

2.5.1 General Approaches to the Quantification of Arctic Effects....................2.3

2.5.2 Ice Gouging ..............................................................................................2.8

2.5.3 Strudel Scour ..........................................................................................2.10

2.5.4 Upheaval Buckling .................................................................................2.10

2.5.5 Thaw Settlement......................................................................................2.10

3 Future Development Scenarios..........................................................................3.1

3.1 Approaches to Future Development Scenarios.....................................................3.1

3.2 Beaufort Sea Development Scenarios...................................................................3.5

3.3 Chuckchi Sea Development Scenarios...............................................................3.11

4 Fault Tree Analysis for Arctic Oil Spill Frequencies......................................4.1

4.1 General Description of Fault Tree Analysis.........................................................4.1

4.2 Fault Tree Methodology........................................................................................4.1

4.2.1 Fault Tree Analysis Basics.......................................................................4.1

4.2.2 Current Application of Fault Trees..........................................................4.4

4.3 Pipeline Fault Tree Analysis.................................................................................4.6

4.3.1 Fault Tree Inputs......................................................................................4.6

4.3.2 Arctic Pipeline Fault Tree Frequency Calculations.................................4.8

4.3.3 Arctic Pipeline Frequency Input Uncertainty Variations.......................4.14

4.4 Platform Fault Tree Analysis..............................................................................4.14
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xix

4.4.1 Arctic Platform Fault Tree Inputs..........................................................4.14

4.4.2 Arctic Platform Fault Tree Spill Frequency Calculations .....................4.17

4.4.3 Platform Arctic Effect Frequency Input Variations ...............................4.17

4.3 Blowout Frequency Analysis..............................................................................4.17

5 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicator Quantification.................................................5.1

5.1 Definition of Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators.......................................................5.1

5.2 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicator Calculation Process.............................................5.1

5.3 Summary of Beaufort Sea Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators..................................5.3

5.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators...............................5.3

5.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators.............................5.11

5.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators.............................5.11

5.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale All Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators ..........................5.11

5.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale All Comparative Non-Arctic Indicator Assessment ..5.11

5.4 Summary of Chukchi Sea Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators................................5.17

5.4.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators.......................5.17

5.4.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators ......................5.17

5.4.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Comparative Non-Arctic Indicator Assessments ..5.17

5.5 Summary of Representative Oil Spill Occurrence Indicator Results..................5.23

5.6 Comparison of Monte Carlo and Expected Value Results .................................5.25

6 Conclusions and Recommendations..................................................................6.1

6.1 Conclusions ......................................................................................................6.1

6.1.1 Conclusions on Spill Indicator Trends .....................................................6.1

6.1.1.1 Spill Occurrence Indicator Variations by Spill Size and Location........ 6.1

6.1.1.2 Facility Contributions to Spill Occurrence Indicators ......................... 6.5

6.1.1.3 Projected Annual Variations of Spill Occurrence Indicators................ 6.5

6.1.1.4 Spill Indicator Statistical Variance .................................................... 6.9

6.1.2 Conclusions on the Methodology and Its Applicability............................6.9

6.2 Limitations of Methodology and Results............................................................6.11

6.2.1 General Description of Limitations........................................................6.11

6.2.2 Limitations of Input Data .......................................................................6.11

6.2.3 Scenarios ................................................................................................6.12

6.2.4 Fault Tree Methodology .........................................................................6.12

6.2.5 Limitations of Indicators Generated.......................................................6.13

6.3 Recommendations...............................................................................................6.13

6.3.1 Recommendations on Direct Application of Results from this Study .....6.13

6.3.2 General Recommendations.....................................................................6.14

References...................................................................................................................R.1

VOLUME II - APPENDICES

APPENDIX

A Historical Data ...................................................................................................A.1

B Future Development Scenarios.........................................................................B.1

C Monte Carlo Calculations .................................................................................C.1

D Expected Value Calculations ............................................................................D.1
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xx

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

2.1 GOM OCS Pipeline Spills Summary (1972-1999)...............................................2.2

2.2 Analysis of GOM OCS Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size..................2.4

2.3 Causal and Spill Distribution of GOM OCS Pipeline Spills (1972-1999)...........2.5

2.4 Analysis of GOM OCS Platform Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size

(1972-1999) ......................................................................................................2.6

2.5 Causal and Spill Size Distribution of GOM OCS Platform Spills (1972-1999)..........2.6

2.6 Well Drilling Blowout Oil Spill Statistics............................................................2.7

2.7 Producing Well Blowout Oil Spill Statistics........................................................2.7

2.8 Oil Spill Size Distribution for Well Blowouts......................................................2.7

2.9 Summary of Arctic Effect Inputs..........................................................................2.9

3.1 Classification of Development Scenarios.............................................................3.2

3.2 Beaufort Sea All Sale Production Scenarios.........................................................3.7

3.3 Summary of Development Scenarios for Year 2020..........................................3.10

3.4 Chukchi Sea Base Case Mid Point Development Scenario................................3.13

3.5 Chukchi Sea High Case Mid Point Development Scenario................................3.14

4.1 Pipeline Fault Tree Analysis Input Rationalization..............................................4.7

4.2 Pipeline Small Spill Size Frequencies................................................................4.10

4.3 Pipeline Medium Spill Size Frequencies............................................................4.11

4.4 Pipeline Large Spill Size Frequencies................................................................4.12

4.5 Pipeline Huge Spill Size Frequencies.................................................................4.13

4.6 Arctic Pipeline Impact Uncertainty Variations...................................................4.15

4.7 Platform Fault Tree Input Rationalization..........................................................4.16

4.8 Platform Small and Medium Spill Size Frequencies..........................................4.19

4.9 Platform Large and Huge Spill Size Frequencies...............................................4.19

4.10 Platform Arctic Effect Frequency Variations .....................................................4.20

4.11 Blowout Frequencies ..........................................................................................4.21

5.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Year 2016 – Monte Carlo Results........................................5.9

5.2 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios...................................................5.24

5.3 Composition of Spill Indicators..........................................................................5.24

5.4 Comparison of Monte Carlo and Expected Value Spill Indicators.....................5.27

6.1 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios.....................................................6.2
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xxi

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PAGE

1.1 Study Area Map ....................................................................................................1.3

1.2 Work Flow Schematic...........................................................................................1.4

1.3 Flow Chart ......................................................................................................1.6

3.1 Beaufort Sea Lease Areas.....................................................................................3.3

3.2 Chukchi Sea Lease Areas .....................................................................................3.4

3.3 Beaufort Sea Possible Facility Plan......................................................................3.6

3.4 Chukchi Sea Possible Facility Plan.....................................................................3.12

4.1 Basic Fault Tree Symbol Legend..........................................................................4.2

4.2 Basic Fault Tree Structure ....................................................................................4.3

4.3 Example of Fault Tree to Transform Historical (GOM) to Arctic Spill Frequencies...4.5

4.4 Large Spill Size Frequencies for Pipeline.............................................................4.9

4.5 Spill Frequencies for Platforms...........................................................................4.18

5.1 Flow Chart ......................................................................................................5.2

5.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency.....................................................................5.4

5.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 Barrels Produced ...........................5.4

5.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index............................................................................5.5

5.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicators – Pipeline.............................................................5.6

5.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicators – Platforms ..........................................................5.7

5.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicators – Wells ................................................................5.8

5.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicator Distributions........................................................5.10

5.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Indicators............................................................................5.12

5.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Indicators............................................................................5.13

5.11 Beaufort Sea Sale All Indicators.........................................................................5.14

5.12 Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency – Arctic and Non-Arctic .......................5.15

5.13 Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 Barrels Produced – Arctic and

Non-Arctic ....................................................................................................5.15

5.14 Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index – Arctic and Non-Arctic ...............................5.16

5.15 Chukchi Sea Base Case Indicators......................................................................5.18

5.16 Chukchi Sea Base Case Indicator Distributions .................................................5.19

5.17 Chukchi Sea High Case Indicators .....................................................................5.20

5.18 Chukchi Sea High Case Indicator Distributions .................................................5.21

5.19 Comparative Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Indicators.......................................5.22

5.20 Typical Spill Occurrence Indicator Variance Graphs.........................................5.26

6.1 Beaufort Sea ‘Sale All’ Spill Indicators – Year 2024...........................................6.3

6.2 Chukchi Sea ‘High Case’ Spill Indicators – Year 2010 .......................................6.4

6.3 Beaufort Sea ‘Sale All’ Spill Indicators – Year 2024...........................................6.6

6.4 Chukchi Sea ‘High Case’ Spill Indicators – Year 2010 .......................................6.7

6.5 Beaufort Sea Composite Scenario Annual Variation in Arctic and Non-Arctic

Spill Occurrence Indicators ..................................................................................6.8

6.6 Typical Spill Occurrence Indicator Variance Graphs.........................................6.10
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xxii

GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ACRONYMS

Acute Risk Risk that has an immediate adverse effect due to a single accident

such as an oil blowout.

ALARP As Low as Reasonably Practicable

API American Petroleum Institute

ARM Availability, Reliability and Maintainability

BOP Blowout Preventer

CDF Cumulative Distribution Function

Chronic Risk Risk that has an adverse effect only after long-term or repeated

occurrences.

Consequence The direct effect of an accidental event.

DJU Drilling Jack-Up

ESD Emergency Shutdown

ESDV Emergency Shutdown Valve

FPSO Floating Production and Storage Operation

GBS Gravity Base Structure

GOM Gulf of Mexico

H2S Hydrogen Sulfide

Hazard A condition with a potential to create risks such as accidental

leakage of natural gas from a pressurized vessel.

HT High Temperature

HTHP High Temperature, High Pressure

LFL Lower Flammability Limit

MAOP Maximum Allowable Operating Pressure. The highest pressure at

which a pipeline or vessel can be operated considering design and

regulatory conditions.

MMS Minerals Management Service, Department of the Interior

Monte Carlo A numerical method for evaluating algebraic combinations of

statistical distributions.

MSL Mean Sea Level

NOP Normal Operating Pressure. The highest pressure at which a

pipeline or vessel can be operated considering design conditions.

NPD Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

OCS Offshore Continental Shelf
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

xxiii

OIM Offshore Installation Manager

QRA Quantitative Risk Assessment

Risk A compound measure of the probability and magnitude of adverse

effect.

ROV Remotely Operated Vehicle

Spill Frequency The number of spills of a given spill size range per year. Usually

expressed as spills per 1,000 years (and so indicated).

Spill Frequency per

Barrel Produced

The number of spills of a given spill size range per barrel

produced. Usually expressed as spills per billion barrels produced

(and so indicated).

Spill Index The product of spill frequency for a given spill size range and the

mean spill size for that spill size range.

Spill Occurrence Characterization of an oil spill as an annual frequency and

associated spill size or spill size range.

Spill Occurrence

Indicator

Any of the oil spill occurrence characteristics; namely, spill

frequency, spill frequency per barrel produced, or spill index

(defined above).

Spill Sizes Small (S) = 50 < 100 bbl

Medium (M) = 100 < 1,000 bbl

Large (L) = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

Huge (H) = 10,000 bbl

SPM Single Point Mooring

SSIV Sub-Sea Isolation Valve

SSSV Subsurface Safety Valve

UFL Upper Flammability Limit

UKCS UK Continental Shelf
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 General Introduction

The MMS Alaska OCS Region uses oil spill occurrence predictions for National

Environmental Protection Act assessments for all parts of their area of jurisdiction,

ranging from onshore through shallow water, to deeper water. In 1999-2000, a study,

OCS Study MMS 2000-007 [22]*, was carried out to collate readily available information

on oil industry spills in the Alaska and North Slope and Arctic Canada, to verify spill

information for spills of at least 500 barrels and to estimate provisional spill rates for use

in the near shore Beaufort Sea OCS. Based on this study, MMS estimated pipeline and

facility spill rates from Alaskan North Slope and Trans-Alaska Pipeline onshore oil spill

experience to shallow coastal waters and the near shore Beaufort Sea. However, as water

depth increases and one moves further from shore, extrapolation of these statistics is not

necessarily valid due to the change in operational modes and environmental conditions.

There are no adequate historical statistics to characterize spill rates in deeper waters in

the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, for forthcoming lease areas.

Accordingly, MMS implemented the present study to develop and apply alternative

methodologies for the assessment of oil spill rates associated with exploration and

production facilities and operations in deeper waters in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.

The prediction of the reliability (or failure) of systems without history can be approached

through a variety of mathematical techniques, the most preferable and accepted being

fault trees [2, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15, 18, 23, 26, 45, 51, 65], and their possible combination

with numerical distribution methods such as Monte Carlo simulation. In the current

study, fault tree methodology was applied to the prediction of oil spill rates for oil and

gas developments such as those now operational or contemplated for the Beaufort and

Chukchi Seas in the Alaska OCS, and used to generate predictions of oil spill occurrence

indicators.

1.2 Study Objectives

The objectives of this study are as follows:

• Assimilate and analyze world-wide and US OCS oil spill statistics and

evaluate their applicability to deeper lease tracts which could be offered in the

upcoming Beaufort Sea sales or in subsequent Chukchi Sea sales.

• Develop the fault tree method for estimating oil spill occurrences from

Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea developments associated with spills less than

and greater than 1,000 bbl.

 

*

 Numbers in square brackets refer to citations listed in the “References” section of this report.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.2

• Using the fault tree approach, develop alternative oil spill indicators and

assess their robustness.

• Provide statistical support to MMS in evaluation of statistical issues in

estimation of oil spill rates.

1.3 Study Area Definition

The geographical study area is the offshore continental shelf in the U.S. Chukchi and

Beaufort Seas, as generally illustrated in Figure 1.1. Of interest is the offshore area from

landfall to approximately the 60-meter isobath. This area is selected due to the possibility

of future oil and gas development within it, based on potential leases. Although a depth

greater than 60 meters was originally contemplated as part of the study area, the analysis

of development scenarios has indicated that it is highly unlikely that any oil and gas

developments will take place in depths greater than 60 meters. More details on the leases

and the geology of the study area are described in several MMS publications [35, 36, 37,

38, 39].

Temporally, the study scenarios investigated span into the future by nearly half a century

from the present to Year 2038.

1.4 Scope of Work

The scope of work has been subdivided functionally into seven principal tasks as follows:

ß Tasks 1 to 4 are the definitive study tasks and are reported in the present

report in the Chapters indicated above.

ß Task 5 is a service task directed at facilitating the transfer of technology from

this study to MMS staff.

ß Task 6 is simply the coordination and management process applied

throughout.

ß Task 7 is reporting. Four Progress Reports were issued throughout the study,

but all salient aspects of them are incorporated in this Final Report, so that

they need not be referenced.

The general relationship among the principal technical tasks is shown in Figure 1.2.

Essentially, following the start-up procedure of the study, including final scope definition

and refinement in Task 1, two parallel tasks, Tasks 2 and 3, were conducted. Task 2 dealt

with the assimilation of historical data, while Task 3 dealt with the projection of future

development scenarios for the next 40 years more or less. Next, the analytical aspects of

the work were contained under Task 4, which was subdivided into Task 4A, the fault tree

spill frequency analysis, and Task 4B, the oil spill indicator quantification. Task 5

consists of statistical consulting services to MMS. Task 6 entails coordination of the

entire project. This report constitutes the principal output from Task 7.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.3

CHUKCHISEA

BEAUFORTSEA

U.S.A.

CANADA

180°

130°

70°

Figure 1.1

Study Area Map

STUDY AREA REPRESENTED AS:SHOWS OFFSHORE THROUGH LANDFALLT0 600-METER ISOBATH, APPROXIMATELY
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.4

Figure 1.2

Work Flow Schematic

TASK 2

TASK 3

STATISTICAL 

SUPPORT

TASK 4A

FAULT TREE ARCTIC 

OIL SPILL FREQUENCY 

ANALYSIS

TASK 4B

ARCTIC OIL SPILL 

RISK INDICATORS

TASK 6

PROJECT 

MANAGEMENT

TASK 7

REPORTING

TASK 5

FUTURE 

SCENARIOS

TASK 1

KICK-OFF

HISTORICAL 

DATA
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.5

1.5 Work Organization

The present study consisted of statistical and engineering investigations, followed by

extensive numerical analysis. Although the assimilation of historical and future scenario

data is of indisputable significance to the work, the salient contribution consisted

primarily of the analytical work involving fault trees and oil spill occurrence indicator

generation. Although the individual calculations are relatively simple, the subdivision of

the calculations into realistic representative categories of facilities, spill sizes, and water

depth for several development scenarios resulted in a relatively complex mix of

computations, generally illustrated in the flow chart in Figure 1.3. Moving from left to

right; initially historical data were obtained for each of three principal facility categories,

pipelines, platforms, and wells. These facility quantities are referred to as “hazard

scenarios”, since they are considered to be the primary source of oil spill hazard.

Pipelines were further subdivided among < 10 inch and = 10 inch diameter lines. Wells

were categorized in two ways: according to producing (production) wells and the drilling

(D) of exploration and development wells. For each of the above facility subcategories,

spill causes were analyzed for small, medium, large, and huge spills, defined as follows:

ß Small (S) - = 50 < 100 bbl

ß Medium (M) - = 100 < 1,000 bbl

ß Large (L) - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

ß Huge (H) - = 10,000 bbl

For those spills greater than 10,000 bbl, the term ‘huge spill’ has been introduced to

permit unique designation of each spill category by one letter, rather than the more

customary terminology of ‘very large’ which would require two letters.

In the interests of conciseness and clarity, the above four categories of spill sizes will

generally be designated by either their name (small, medium, large, huge) or, when space

is limited, by their acronym (S, M, L, H), in the balance of this report.

Next, in the frequency analysis utilizing fault trees, each of three representative water

depth ranges was assessed as follows:

ß Shallow - < 10 meters

ß Medium - = 10 < 30 meters

ß Deep - = 30 < 60 meters

Although originally it was anticipated that ‘very deep’ water would be considered, it was

found that none of the development scenarios extended beyond the 60-meter isobath.

A total of six different future development scenarios were defined, four for the Beaufort

Sea, and two for the Chukchi Sea. Each scenario was described for each year in its

development history, as far as the year 2038 for the longest duration scenarios. In

addition, a hypothetical scenario for comparative purposes was developed for each study

sub-region on the assumption that it was located in a non-Arctic area. This permitted the

comparison of the spill indicator results with and without the application of the fault tree

analysis to account for Arctic effects.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.6

Figure 1.3

Flow Chart
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

1.7

Finally, for each of the combinations considered, three Arctic oil spill occurrence

indicators were generated, as follows:

ß Oil spill frequency

ß Oil spill frequency per barrel produced

ß Spill index, which is the product of the oil spill frequency and the mean spill

size (for the particular category under consideration)

The flow chart in Figure 1.3, of course, does not show all the different combinations and

permutations; rather, it indicates the typical calculations for one case, and suggests the

balance by dotted lines. The total number of spill indicator quantifications conducted was

1,728 for each year of the scenario development profile, or approximately 60,000

indicators.

1.6 Outline of Report

Following this brief introductory chapter, Volume I of the final report addresses each of

the principal tasks and subtasks in its logical sequence. Accordingly, Chapter 2 describes

the historical data assimilation and analysis, Chapter 3 defines the future development

scenarios to be utilized, Chapter 4 deals with the fault tree analysis to obtain Arctic oil

spill frequencies, while Chapter 5 summarizes the results of the oil spill occurrence

indicator computations and their distributions. Chapter 6 summarizes conclusions and

recommendations including a section on the benefits and shortcomings of the present

study. Extensive references and bibliography are given in the References.

The appendices given in Volume II form an integral part of the work for the reader who

wishes to learn about background and calculation details. Accordingly, Appendix A

summarizes the historical data assimilated and analyzed. Because Chapter 2, on historical

data, is restricted to the data actually utilized in the present computations, Appendix A

will be of interest to readers wanting a more comprehensive view of oil spill occurrence

statistics including those from other parts of the world as well as ones associated with

tanker traffic and operations. Appendix B gives details on the future development

scenarios utilized as a basis for the study. Appendix C gives a printout of all the

calculation steps utilized in the development of the Arctic oil spill occurrence indicators

using the Monte Carlo approach; Appendix D gives the corresponding calculations for

the expected value approach.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.1

CHAPTER 2

HISTORICAL DATA

2.1 Approaches to Historical Data

Historical data on offshore oil spills were utilized as a numerical starting point for

predicting Arctic offshore oil spill characteristics. Because a statistical history on Arctic

offshore oil spills does not exist, oil spill histories for temperate offshore locations were

utilized. Although Arctic offshore exploration and production was started in the early

1970s, operations have been sporadic, with very few spills, so that a statistical history

cannot be generated.

The following data sets or databases were reviewed:

(a) Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) Pipeline Spills (1972-

1999)

(b) GOM OCS Platform Spills (1972-1999)

(c) North Sea Pipeline Spills (1980-1995)

(d) Crude Oil Tanker Spills, Worldwide (1964-1999)

(e) Above Ground Storage Tank Spills, Worldwide (1980-1995)

(f) Gas Blowouts, Worldwide (1955-1993)

(g) Oil Blowouts, Worldwide (1955-1995)

All of the above categories of data are discussed and summarized in Appendix A. The

contents of the balance of this chapter are restricted to the presentation and discussion of

only those data sets utilized in the balance of the present study. Specifically, the data sets

in categories (a), (b), and (g) were selected. None of the development scenarios

considered here (see Chapter 3) included tankers; hence, (d) data were not required. Gas

blowouts (f) are also not part of this study. Above ground storage tank spills (e) are

included in platform spills (b). And finally, the pipeline spill data in category (a)

contained a more appropriate level of detail than that from the North Sea in category (c).

2.2 Pipeline Oil Spill Data

The MMS database called PPL_REPAIRS was used as a basis for the assessment of

subsea pipeline oil spills. This database contains records of all reported spills in the

GOM. The database was used to obtain spill records for spills of 50 bbl or more between

January 1st, 1972 and December 31st, 1999. The 31 spills reported in this date range were

further subdivided into volume, pipeline diameter, pipeline segment length, and pipeline

segment depth ranges as summarized in Table 2.1.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.2

Table 2.1

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills Summary (1972-1999)

Spill Statistics**

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills,

Categorized 1972-99 Number

of Spills

Average

Volume

(bbl)

Median

Volume

(bbl)

Exposure

(km-years)

Frequency

(spill per

104 km-yr)

<10" 16 2141 173 142,892 1.1197 By Pipe Diameter =10" 15 4070 1211 111,011 1.3512

Bad Depth Data* 14

< 10 m 6 2310 1211 161,966 0.3704 By Pipeline Minimum

Depth = 10 m 11 3165 1040 94,641 1.1623

< 0.5 km 0 0 0 2,359 0.0000

= 0.5 < 2 km 2 2335 2335 25,484 0.7848

= 2 < 5 km 7 820 100 35,279 1.9842 By Segment Length

= 5 km 22 3859 850 192,270 1.1442

Small 6 58 50 253,903 0.2363

Medium 12 317 230 253,903 0.4726

Large 10 4133 4267 253,903 0.3939 By Spill Size***

Huge 3 16611 15576 253,903 0.1182

By Diameter, By Spill Size

Small 4 58 50 142,892 0.2799

Medium 7 266 135 142,892 0.4899

Large 4 4436 4551 142,892 0.2799 <10"

Huge 1 14423 14423 142,892 0.0700

Small 2 58 58 111,011 0.1802

Medium 5 387 312 111,011 0.4504

Large 6 3932 3600 111,011 0.5405 = 10"

Huge 2 17705 17705 111,011 0.1802

* 14 of the 31 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to “0”.

** Exposure comes from an analysis of PPL_MASTERS database as published by MMS on February 15,

 2001.

*** Spill Sizes:

ß Small (S) - = 50 < 100 bbl

ß Medium (M) - = 100 < 1,000 bbl

ß Large (L) - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

ß Huge (H) - = 10,000 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.3

Next, 31 GOM OCS pipeline spill records were reviewed and analyzed for causal and

spill size distributions. In particular, it was necessary to analyze spill frequencies for

spills less than and greater than 1,000 bbl. Table 2.2 shows the summary of the record

information, while Table 2.3 summarizes the spill cause distributions for two spill size

ranges (small and medium, large and huge).

2.3 Platform Spill Data

Platform spills in the MMS database are given for the period from 1972 to 1999. The

platform spill data are given with an exposure of producing well-years. As for pipelines,

the spill records themselves were accessed in order to obtain the correlation between spill

cause and spill size. Table 2.4 shows the results of the causal and spill size distribution

analysis, while Table 2.5 gives the causal distribution as well as the spill frequency per

10,000 well-years.

In order to assess spill occurrence from platform facilities, using the above per well-year

frequency, it is necessary to estimate the number of wells per platform. The number of

production wells given in each scenario was distributed equally among the production

platforms specified (by MMS) for this study.

2.4 Well Oil Blowout Data

The development scenarios considered under this study include the drilling of exploratory

and development wells, and the process of producing oil from production wells [12, 69].

Table 2.6 shows a summary of well drilling blowout oil spill data generated in support of

the Northstar and Liberty oil development projects [52]. Table 2.7 gives the statistics for

production wells. The combination of these statistics together with the cumulative

distribution function for oil blowout releases given in [59], generated in support of the

Northstar project, permits a blowout spill volume frequency distribution as summarized

in Table 2.8. It should be noted that the exposure factor or frequency unit varies between

the well drilling activities (where it is per well) and the production activities (where it is

per well-year).

2.5 Arctic Effects Historical Data

2.5.1 General Approaches to the Quantification of Arctic Effects

There are essentially two main categories of Arctic effects; namely, those that are unique

to the Arctic, such as marine ice effects, and those that are the same types of effects as

those in temperate areas, but occurring with a different frequency, such as anchor impacts

on subsea pipelines. The first will be termed “unique” effects; the second, “modified”

effects. Modified Arctic effects are dealt with in conjunction with the fault tree analysis

described in Chapter 4. Only those Arctic effects or hazards unique to the Arctic, and

potentially having a historical occurrence database, such as ice gouging, are discussed in

the balance of this section.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.4

Table 2.2

Analysis of GOM OCS Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size

NUMBER

OF SPILLS SPILL SIZE

BBL CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

# OF

SPILLS

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S M L H SM LH

CORROSION 4 1 2 1 3 1

External 1 80 1 1

Internal 3 100 5000 414 2 1 2 1

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 16 2 5 6 3 7 9

Anchor Impact 10 19833 65 50 300 900 323 15576 2000 800 1211 2 4 2 2 6 4

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 1 3200 1 1

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 4000 100 14423 4569 4533 1 3 1 1 4

OPERATION IMPACT 4 3 1 3 1

Rig Anchoring 1 50 1 1

Work Boat Anchoring 3 50 5100 50 2 1 2 1

MECHANICAL 2 2 2

Connection Failure 1 135 1 1

Material Failure 1 210 1 1

NATURAL HAZARD 4 1 1 2 2 2

Mud Slide 3 250 80 8212 1 1 1 2 1

Storm/ Hurricane 1 3500 1 1

ARCTIC

Ice Gouging

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Other

UNKNOWN 1 119 1 1

TOTALS 31 7 11 10 3 18 13
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.5

Table 2.3

Causal and Spill Size Distribution of GOM OCS Pipeline Spills (1972-1999)

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HIST.

DISTRIBUTION

(%)

# OF

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

(km-yr)

FREQUENCY

(spill per

104km-yr)

HIST.

DISTRIBUTION

(%)

# OF

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

(km-yr)

FREQUENCY

(spill per

104km-yr)

CORROSION 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394

External 5.56 1 0.0394

Internal 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 7 0.2757 69.23 9 0.3545

Anchor Impact 33.33 6 0.2363 30.77 4 0.1575

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 1 0.0394

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 1 0.0394 30.77 4 0.1575

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394

Rig Anchoring 5.56 1 0.0394

Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394

MECHANICAL 11.11 2 0.0788

Connection Failure 5.56 1 0.0394

Material Failure 5.56 1 0.0394

NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 2 0.0788 15.38 2 0.0788

Mud Slide 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 1 0.0394

ARCTIC

Ice Gouging

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Other

UNKNOWN 5.56 1 0.0394

TOTALS 100.00 18

253903

0.7089 100.00 13

253903

0.5120
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.6

Table 2.4

Analysis of GOM OCS Platform Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size

(1972-1999)

NUMBER

OF SPILLS SPILL SIZE

BBL CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

# OF

SPILLS

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 S M L H SM LH

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 13 130 50 120 104 60 1456 125 50 50 55 400 280 75 6 6 1 12 1

STORAGE TANK RLS. 3 9935 7000 435 1 2 1 2

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 1 58 1 1

HURRICANE/STORM 2 75 66 2 2

COLLISION 2 600 108 2 2

ARCTIC

 - Ice Force

 - Facility Low Temperature

 - Other

TOTALS 21 9 9 3 18 3

Table 2.5

Causal and Spill Size Distribution of GOM OCS Platform Spills (1972-1999)

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HIST.

DISTRIBUTION

(%)

# OF

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

(well-yr)

FREQUENCY

(spill per

104 well-yr)

HIST.

DISTRIBUTION

(%)

# OF

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

(well-yr)

FREQUENCY

(spill per

104 well-yr)

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 12 1.0024 33.33 1 0.0835

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 1 0.0835 66.67 2 0.1671

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 1 0.0835

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 2 0.1671

COLLISION 11.11 2 0.1671

TOTALS 100.00 18

119714

1.5036 100.00 3

119714

0.2506
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.7

Table 2.6

Well Drilling Blowout Oil Spill Statistics

Event Historical Frequency Experience

Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 7.8 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present

Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 1.5 x 10-4/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present

Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 3.9 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present

Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 5.5 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present

Table 2.7

Producing Well Blowout Oil Spill Statistics

Event Historical Frequency Experience

Blowout during production and workovers involving some oil discharge >1 bbl 6.5 x 10-5/well-years U.S. OCS, 1964 - 1995

Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 2.5 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present

Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 1.0 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present

Table 2.8

Oil Spill Size Distribution for Well Blowouts

SPILL SIZE

Small &

Medium Large

Small,

Medium, &

Large

Spill

= 10,000

< 150,000 bbl

Spill

= 150,000 bbl EVENT FREQUENCY

UNIT

HISTORICAL FREQUENCY

PRODUCTION WELL

spill

per 105

well-years

0.50 3.50 4.00 1.50 1.00

EXPLORATION WELL

DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.16 22.11 25.27 9.50 5.50

DEVELOPMENT WELL

DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.30 9.08 10.38 3.90 3.90
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.8

2.5.2 Ice Gouging

Ice gouging occurs when a moving ice feature contacts the sea bottom and penetrates into

it, generally as it moves against a positive sea bottom slope. The ice feature can be a

multiyear ridge, a hummock, or ice rafting formation. Various studies have been

conducted on the frequency and depth distribution of ice gouges [8, 27, 29, 30, 46, 67,

68], and a number of assessments of the likelihood of resultant subsea pipeline failure [8,

29] have also been carried out. Pipeline failure frequencies at different water depth

regimes as a result of ice gouging in this study have been estimated on the basis of the

historical ice gouge characteristics [29] together with an analytical assessment [8, 68] of

their likelihood to damage a pipeline.

According to Weeks [67, 68], a relationship between the expected probability of pipeline

failure from ice gouging and ice gouging local characteristics may be expressed as

follows:

N = e-kx HS ? F ? T ? LP ? sin? (2.1)

Where:

N = Number of pipeline failures at burial depth of cover x (meters)

k = Inverse of mean scour depth (m-1)

HS = Probability of pipeline failure given ice gouge impact or hit

F = Scour flux per km-yr

LP = Length of pipeline (km)

? = Gouge orientation (degrees) from pipeline centerline

For the Northstar project, according to [30], the mean scour depth is 0.4 m giving a k

factor of 2.5. In addition, a good estimate of scour flux for shallow water is 4 gouges/kmyr. Using an average pipeline depth of cover of 2.5 m, an average directional angle of

45°, a conditional failure probability (HS) of 0.8, gives a frequency of 5.23 x 10-6/km-yr.

For the purposes of the analysis, this frequency must be distributed among different spill

size consequences. Due to the difficulty of containing spills under ice, one can expect that

the majority of spills would be in the large and huge categories. However, huge spills

would be limited by segment length. Thus, a conditional probability (given a spill) of

50% has been assigned to large spills, and one of 14% to huge spills. Least likely are

small spills, and accordingly they have been given a probability of 13%. The remaining

probability of 23% has been assigned to medium sized spills. The resultant distribution of

expected frequencies of spill sizes associated with ice gouging is given in Table 2.9.

Also, high and low values have been assigned in order to permit an analysis of the likely

distribution of the effects. Essentially, these variations in effect probability were obtained

through a parametric sensitivity analysis using Equation 2.1 for a range of likely values

of depth of cover from 2.0 m to 3.0 m (with an expected value of 2.5 m). These resultant

low and high values are also summarized in Table 2.9. For medium water depth, an

analogous process was carried out with a reduced gouge flux of 2 gouges/km-yr. For

deep water (= 30 m) no gouging is expected.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.9

Table 2.9

Summary of Arctic Effect Inputs

Water Depth

Shallow Medium Deep

Frequency Increment per 105 km-yr

Cause Classification Spill

Size

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected High

Ice Gouging S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0030 0.0340 0.4145

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0045 0.0605 0.7335

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0105 0.1305 1.5950

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0030 0.0365 0.4465

Strudel Scour S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

Upheaval Buckling S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

Thaw Settlement S 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044

M 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078

L 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170

H 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

2.10

2.5.3 Strudel Scour

When fresh water collecting on top of the ice sheet generally from rivers running into the

Arctic seas, and drains through a hole in the ice, its hydrodynamic effect on the ocean

floor below forms a depression which is called a strudel scour. Numerous studies have

been conducted on strudel scour [29, 30], so that a prediction on the number of strudel

scours per unit area can be made on the basis of historical data. Strudel scours are

restricted to shallow water. With an average strudel scour frequency of 4 scours/mi 2 (1.5

scours/km2) [30], the methodology in [30] can be utilized to predict a possible failure rate

of subsea pipelines in shallow waters due to strudel scour of approximately 8.9 x 10-

8

/km-yr. Using reasoning similar to that for the distribution of spill sizes for ice gouging,

and assigning limits based on parametric sensitivity studies, the distribution of strudel

scour frequencies for shallow water as shown in Table 2.9 can be derived. Strudel scours

are not expected in water depths greater than 10 m.

2.5.4 Upheaval Buckling

Upheaval buckling occurs in a pipeline as a result of its thermal expansion which causes

it to buckle upwards to accommodate the extra length generated from thermal effects.

Unfortunately, there appears to be no defensible analytical method for calculating the

probability of upheaval buckling of Arctic subsea pipelines in general. Accordingly,

upheaval buckling has been taken simply as a percentage of the strudel scour effects.

Assuming that a upheaval buckling occurs 20% as often as strudel scour, the distribution

shown in Table 2.9 can be derived. Upheaval buckling is expected to be independent of

water depth; accordingly, the same values have been used for each water depth range.

2.5.5 Thaw Settlement

Thaw settlement occurs when a permafrost lens or formation over which the pipeline was

installed melts as a result of the heat generated by the pipeline and ceases to support the

pipeline so that the pipeline overburden loads the pipeline and causes it to deflect

downwards. As for the case of upheaval buckling, writers are not aware of any method

for defensibly calculating the probability of pipeline failures from thaw settlement.

Accordingly, resort is again made to the percentage of a known phenomenon approach

and thaw settlement has been assumed to occur at a rate equal to 10% of that associated

with strudel scour. The resultant distribution is shown in Table 2.9. Like upheaval

buckling, thaw settlement is expected to be independent of water depth.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

CHAPTER 3

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

3.1 Approaches to Future Development Scenarios

For the purposes of the fault tree analysis utilized in this study, future offshore oil and gas

development scenarios need to include the following characteristics:

ß Water depth range, particularly for pipelines

ß Physical quantities of individual facilities (e.g., production wells, pipelines) on an

annual basis in correspondence with the baseline data exposure factors (e.g., per

well year or per km-yr)

ß Associated oil production volumes

ß Other characteristics such as pipeline diameter or type of well drilled

Table 3.1 shows the Classification of Development Scenarios by water depth range and

operation type. The salient aspect of this classification is subdivision into water depth

ranges among which Arctic hazard characteristics (such as ice gouging rates) may

change. The following water depth categories have been used:

ß Shallow - < 10 meters

ß Medium - = 10 < 30 meters

ß Deep - = 30 < 60 meters

ß Very Deep - = 60 meters

In Table 3.1, an indication is given of the types of facilities that might be utilized in each

of the principal types of oil and gas activities, exploration, production, or transportation.

As will be seen in this chapter, current forecasts for development scenarios over the next

40 years exclude very deep locations, in excess of 60 m. Accordingly, any suggestions

for facilities under the very deep scenario would be speculative and will not be used in

the current study.

In general, the scenarios described in this chapter were developed to an appropriate level

and type of detail to match the type of unit spill data and statistics available as a basis for

the oil spill occurrence indicator quantification.

The principal regions of interest within the study area are the Beaufort Sea Lease Areas

shown in Figure 3.1 and the Chukchi Sea Lease Areas illustrated in Figure 3.2.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

 Table 3.1

Classification of Development Scenarios

WATER DEPTH

(m) PRINCIPAL

ACTIVITY SHALLOW

(< 10)

MEDIUM

(= 10 < 30)

DEEP

(= 30 < 60)

VERY DEEP

(= 60)

EXPLORATION

ß Artificial island

ß Drill barge

ß Ice island

ß Artificial island

ß Drill ship (summer)

ß Caisson

ß Drill ship (summer)

ß Semisubmersible

(summer)

ß Drill ship (summer)

ß Semisubmersible

(summer)

PRODUCTION ß Artificial island

ß Caisson island

ß Caisson island

ß Gravity Base

Structure (GBS)

ß Caisson island

ß Gravity Base

Structure (GBS)

ß New design structure

ß Submarine habitat

TRANSPORT ß Subsea pipeline ß Subsea pipeline ß Subsea pipeline

ß Storage & tankers

ß Subsea pipeline

ß Submarine storage

ß Icebreaking tankers

ß Submarine tankers
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.3 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.4 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.5 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

3.2 Beaufort Sea Development Scenarios

As a basis for the current analysis, the geographic and water depth distribution of the

facilities and its variation over the life of the development is required in order to

effectively incorporate the effects of Arctic operations on the oil spill occurrences. The

obvious way to approach this, at least for an initial scenario, is to sketch a map of the

possible geographic configuration of the facilities. Such a map, based on the composite

Beaufort Sea (All Sale) scenario is shown in Figure 3.3. This location map also shows the

four water depth zones – shallow, medium, deep, and very deep. As can be seen, no

facilities are predicted in the very deep region. The details of the development scenarios,

given in Appendix B, were generated by Alaska MMS personnel for three different

Beaufort Sea Lease Sale alternatives, Sales 1, 2, and 3, and for a composite of all sales.

Table 3.2 summarizes the complete Beaufort Sea composite (Sale All) scenario including

its temporal development from the present to Year 2038, at which time it is forecast to

cease production. For items such as exploration and field delineation well drilling, the

actual number of wells drilled in a given year were needed, since the statistics of well

spill (blowouts) are on a per well drilled exposure unit. For items that continue from year

to year, such as production wells or subsea pipelines, both the annual incremental and the

cumulative total are needed. Specifically, the following facility quantities by water depth

zone were estimated and distributed as shown in Table 3.2:

ß Exploration wells drilled – annual

ß Delineation wells drilled – annual

ß Production platforms – annual increment and cumulative number

ß Production/service wells – annual increment and cumulative number

ß Pipeline quantities for NPS < 10, and NPS = 10, and total – annual increment and

cumulative number of pipeline length in service

ß Oil production volumes – annual

As noted above, these quantities match the type of unit spill data that can be made

available through the analysis. For example, we have spill data by pipeline diameter only

for lines < and = 10”, so a full spectrum of pipeline diameters would be redundant. The

important aspect of the information in Table 3.2, however, is the distribution of the

facilities by water depth, as there is a significant variation in Arctic hazards by water

depth.

Similar tables were developed for Lease Sales 1, 2, and 3. These are given in detail in

Appendix B. Peak production for the composite scenario occurs in Year 2020.

Accordingly, Table 3.3 summarizes the quantities of facilities and their distribution by

water depth for Year 2020, the maximum production year of the composite (Sale All)

scenario.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.6 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Figure 3.3 Beaufort Sea PossibleFacility PlanLegendWater Depth Pipelines

Shallow NPS < 10Medium NPS =10

 Deep Very Deep
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.7 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea All Sale Production Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2

Shallow 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2

Shallow 1 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 2 2

Shallow 2 1 1 3 3

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2 1 1 3 3

Shallow 1 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 1 2

Deep

Total 2 2 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Shallow 1 3 13 39 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium 2

Deep 1

Total 3 1 3 13 39 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 3 20 59 15 35 15 35 50.7

Medium 1 3

Deep 1

Total 2 3 3 20 59 15 35 15 35 50.7

Shallow 3 10 69 35 35 56.2

Medium 4 1 1 3 3

Deep

Total 4 1 4 13 72 35 35 56.2

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2012

2013

2014

2007

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2008

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2004

2005

2006
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.8 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table 3.2 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 3 69 10 45 10 45 53.3

Medium 2 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep 1

Total 1 2 4 10 82 20 55 20 55 64.2

Shallow 3 69 45 45 47.5

Medium 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 1 5 13 95 55 55 67.4

Shallow 3 69 10 55 10 55 39.1

Medium 1 3 13 39 5 5 10 20 15 25 38.3

Deep 1

Total 1 1 6 13 108 5 5 20 75 25 80 77.4

Shallow 3 69 55 55 32.3

Medium 1 4 24 63 5 20 25 50.6

Deep 1

Total 1 1 7 24 132 5 75 80 82.9

Shallow 3 69 15 70 15 70 26.7

Medium 1 5 24 87 5 10 15 35 20 45 77.9

Deep

Total 1 8 24 156 5 10 30 105 35 115 104.6

Shallow 3 69 70 70 22.0

Medium 5 20 107 10 35 45 82.8

Deep

Total 8 20 176 10 105 115 104.8

Shallow 3 69 70 70 18.1

Medium 5 20 127 10 35 45 80.5

Deep

Total 8 20 196 10 105 115 98.6

Shallow 3 69 70 70 15.0

Medium 5 10 137 10 35 45 74.2

Deep

Total 8 10 206 10 105 115 89.2

Shallow 3 69 70 70 12.5

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 68.9

Deep

Total 8 206 10 105 115 81.4

Shallow 3 69 70 70 10.4

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 64.4

Deep

Total 8 206 10 105 115 74.8

Shallow -1 2 -23 46 -10 60 -10 60 6.5

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 56.0

Deep

Total -1 7 -23 183 10 -10 95 -10 105 62.5

Shallow 2 46 60 60 5.5

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 48.6

Deep

Total 7 183 10 95 105 54.1

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -10 50 -10 50 2.4

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 42.2

Deep

Total -1 6 -23 160 10 -10 85 -10 95 44.6

Shallow -1 -23 -15 35 -15 35

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 36.9

Deep

Total -1 5 -23 137 10 -15 70 -15 80 36.9

2025

2026

2027

2028

2021

2022

2023

2024

2017

2018

2019

2020

2016

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2015

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.9 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table 3.2 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 35 35

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 32.2

Deep

Total 5 137 10 70 80 32.2

Shallow -10 25 -10 25

Medium -1 4 -23 114 10 -10 25 -10 35 25.8

Deep

Total -1 4 -23 114 10 -20 50 -20 60 25.8

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 22.6

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 22.6

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 19.7

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 19.7

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 17.2

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 17.2

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 15.1

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 15.1

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 13.2

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 13.2

Shallow -10 15 -10 15

Medium -2 2 -46 68 -5 5 -10 15 -15 20 8.3

Deep

Total -2 2 -46 68 -5 5 -20 30 -25 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 6.5

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.10 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table 3.3

Summary of Development Scenarios for Year 20201

Production In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Platforms

Production

Wells

Prod. /

Serv.

Wells Sale Year Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All Water

Depth

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

[MMbbl]

Shallow 2 46 30 30 12.8

Medium 1 23 10 10 13.5

Deep 1 2020

Total 3 69 40 40 26.3

Shallow 1 23 25 25 9.2

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 30.7

Deep 2 2020

Total 3 69 5 35 40 39.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 5 15 20 38.6

Deep 3 2020

Total 2 20 38 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 3 69 70 70 22.0

Medium 5 20 107 10 35 45 82.8

Deep ALL 2020

Total 8 20 176 10 105 115 104.8

 

1

 Year 2020 is the maximum production year for All Sale scenario.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.11 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

3.3 Chukchi Sea Development Scenarios

The data for the Chukchi Sea development scenarios was based on Lease Sale 126 [38]

publication. Two scenarios were selected; the base case mid point and the high case mid

point, given in that publication.

Figure 3.4 shows a possible pipeline and facility plot plan corresponding to the base case

mid point facility peak production (Year 2007) quantities.

The Chukchi Sea base case mid point scenario facility quantities, up to Year 2010, are

given in Table 3.4, while the high case mid point scenario is provided in Table 3.5.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.12 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Figure 3.4 Chukchi Sea PossibleFacility PlanLegendWater Depth Pipelines

Shallow NPS = 10

 Medium Deep

120 miles to

Cape Lisborne
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.13 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table 3.4

Chukchi Sea Base Case Mid Point Development Scenario

Production Pipeline Length [miles]

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells Year Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All Water

Depth

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

MMbbl

1998 Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 2

Total 2 2 0

1999 Shallow 5 5 5 5

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 135 135 135 135

Total 200 200 200 200 0

2000 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 2 8 8 135 135

Total 2 2 8 8 200 200 0

2001 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 4 40 48 135 135

Total 2 4 40 48 200 200 0

2002 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 6 60 108 135 135

Total 2 6 60 108 200 200 101

2003 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 80 188 135 135

Total 6 80 188 200 200 135

2004 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 26 214 135 135

Total 6 26 214 200 200 135

2005 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

2006 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

2007 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

2008 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 119

2009 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 103

2010 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 92
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 3.14 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table 3.5

Chukchi Sea High Case Mid Point Development Scenario

Production Pipeline Length [miles]

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Year Wells Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All Water

Depth

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

MMbbl

1998 Shallow

Medium

Deep 3 1

Total 3 1 0

1999 Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 1

Total 2 1 0

2000 Shallow 5 5 5 5

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 2 2 2 135 135 135 135

Total 2 2 2 200 200 200 200 0

2001 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 8 50 50 135 135

Total 6 8 50 50 200 200 0

2002 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 4 12 80 130 135 135

Total 4 12 80 130 200 200 0

2003 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 270 135 135

Total 12 140 270 200 200 223

2004 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 410 135 135

Total 12 140 410 200 200 297

2005 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 72 482 135 135

Total 12 72 482 200 200 297

2006 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

2007 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

2008 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

2009 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 262

2010 Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 227
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 4.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

CHAPTER 4

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS FOR

ARCTIC OIL SPILL FREQUENCIES

4.1 General Description of Fault Tree Analysis

Fault trees are a method for modeling the occurrence of failures. They are used when an

adequate history to provide failure statistics is not available. Developed initially by

Rasmussen for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the early 1970s [65, 51], fault

trees have become a popular risk analytic tool for predicting risks, assessing relative

risks, and quantifying comparative risks [2, 7, 9, 14, 15, 18, 23, 26, 45]. In 1976, fault

trees were first used by Bercha to quantify oil spill probabilities in the Canadian Beaufort

Sea for the Canadian Department of the Environment [10, 11]. In the present study they

are used for the transformation of historical spill statistics for non-Arctic regions to

predictive spill statistics for Arctic regions in the study area.

4.2 Fault Tree Methodology

4.2.1 Fault Tree Analysis Basics

The basic symbols used in the graphic depiction of simple (as used here) fault tree

networks are illustrated in Figure 4.1. As may be seen, the two types of symbols

designate logic gates and event types. The basic fault tree building blocks are the events

and associated sub-events, which form a causal network. The elements linking events are

the AND and OR gates, which define the logical relationship among events in the

network. The output event from an OR gate occurs if any one or more of the input events

to the gate occurs. The output event from an AND gate occurs only if all the input events

occur simultaneously.

The basic structure of a fault tree is illustrated in Figure 4.2. Because of their connection

through an AND gate, Event D and Event E must both occur for the resultant Event B to

occur. An OR gate connects Events B and C; therefore, the occurrence of either one or

both of Events B and C results in the occurrence of the resultant Event A. As may be

seen, the principal fault tree structures are easy to apply; however, the representation of

complex problems often requires very large fault trees, which become more difficult to

analyze and require more advanced techniques such as minimal cut-set analysis [2, 14,

18, 23, 51]. For the present application, a simple system connected through OR gates

only will used.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 4.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

SYMBOL DESCRIPTION

A. LOGIC

EITHER / OR GATE

AND GATE

B. EVENT

RESULTANT EVENT

BASIC EVENT

Figure 4.1

Basic Fault Tree Symbol Legend
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 4.3 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Figure 4.2

Basic Fault Tree Structure
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM 4.4 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Computationally, the probability of input events joined through an AND gate are

multiplied to calculate the probabilities of the output event. The probabilities of input

events joined through an OR gate are added to calculate the probability of the output

event. The relevant equations and associated assumptions may be summarized as follows:

For AND Gate: (4.1a)

Example: Output Event Probability = Px

Input Events failure probabilities, P1, P2, ....

(4.1b)

For OR Gate: (4.2a)

Example: Output Event Probability = Py

Input Event failure probabilities, P1, P2, ...

(4.2b)

In more complex fault trees, it is necessary to assure that base events which affect more

than one fault tree branch are not numerically duplicated. This is done through the use of

minimal cut-set theory [2, 14, 18, 23, 51]. However, as indicated earlier, the fault trees

used in this study are sufficiently simple in structure and level of detail to exclude the

requirement of using minimal cut-set theory in their computation algorithms.

4.2.2 Current Application of Fault Trees

Figure 4.3 illustrates a two-tier fault tree that can be used to develop pipeline large spill

frequencies for the Arctic study area from the historical frequencies. Note that this

example is illustrative of the process only, and does not correspond to the same numerical

values used in computations later. The type of fault tree shown, to be used extensively

later, is a relatively simple fault tree showing the resultant event, the spill, generated from

a series of subresultant events corresponding to the pipeline spill causal classification

introduced earlier in Tables 2.2 and 2.9. The upper tier of numbers (marked “H”) below

each of the events in the fault tree represents the historical frequency (per 100,000 km- yr)

while the lower one (marked “A”) represents the modified frequency for Arctic

operations. As these fault trees are composed entirely of OR gates, the computation of

resultant events is quite simple – consisting of the addition of the probabilities of events

at each level of the fault tree to obtain the resultant probability at the next higher value.

For example, to obtain the “Natural Hazard” Arctic (“A”) probability of 0.151, add 0.043

and 0.108. Essentially, the fault tree resultant (top event) shows that the Arctic frequency

of spills (for the example pipeline category, location, and spill size) is approximately 1 in

100,000 km- yr or 1.015 x 10-5/km-yr. The non-Arctic historical frequency for this spill

size, by comparison, is 2.799 x 10-5/km-yr, or approximately 2.8 times higher.

i

i

n

P P

=1

= Π

( )( ) Px = P1 P2 P3

1 (1 )

1

i

i

n

P = − Π − P

=

1 (1 )(1 )(1 ) P P1 P2 P3

n

y = −Π − − −

Py = P1 + P2 + P3;Pi ≤ 0.1
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.5

Figure 4.3

Example of Fault Tree to Transform Historical (GOM) to Arctic Spill Frequencies1

1 The input data used here are only illustrative and do not represent the inputs used later in this study.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.6

4.3 Pipeline Fault Tree Analysis

4.3.1 Fault Tree Inputs

The effects of the Arctic environment and operations are reflected in the effect on facility

failure rates in two ways; namely, through “Modified Effects”, those changing the

frequency component of certain fault contributions such as anchor impacts which are

common in both Arctic and temperate zones, and through “Unique Effects” or additive

elements such as ice gouging which are unique to the Arctic offshore environment. Table

4.1 shows the frequency modifications (in %) and frequency increment additions (per 105

km-yr)developed for Arctic pipelines for different spill sizes throughout the three

relevant water depth ranges. The right hand column of the table gives a summary of the

reasoning behind the effects. For the Arctic unique effects, both the expected value (from

Table 2.9) and the median value, determined through the Monte Carlo analysis, are given.

The median values differ from the expected values due to skewness of the distributions

introduced through the assigned values of the upper and lower bounds (Table 2.9). The

following comments can be made for each of the causes described:

ß External corrosion – Due to the low temperature, limited biological and

lowered chemical effects are expected. Coatings will be state of art and high

level of quality control will be used during pipeline installation resulting in

high integrity levels of coating to prevent external corrosion.

ß Internal corrosion – Additional (above historical levels) inspection or smart

pigging is anticipated.

ß Anchor impact – The very low traffic densities of third party shipping in the

area justify a 90% reduction in anchor impact expectations on the pipeline.

ß Jack-up rig or spud barges – Associated or other operations are going to be

substantially more limited than they are in the historical data population in the

Gulf of Mexico.

ß Trawl/Fishing net – Very limited fishing is expected in the Beaufort Sea. A

slight increase in fishing activity might be justifiable in the case of the

Chukchi, but this was not done here.

ß Rig anchoring – Although it is anticipated that no marine traffic except

possibly icebreakers will occur during the ice season, an increased traffic

density during the four month open water season to resupply the platforms is

expected, justifying only a 20% decrease in this failure cause.

ß Workboat anchoring – The same applies to workboat anchoring as to rig

anchoring.

ß Mechanical connection failure or material failure – No change was made to

account for Arctic effects.

ß Mudslide – A relatively low gradient resulting in limited mudslide potential is

anticipated. A gradual increase in the mudslide potential (reflected by smaller

decreases in failure frequency) ranging from 80% for shallow water to only

40% in deep water was included to account for the anticipated increase in

gradient as deeper waters are encountered.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.7

Table 4.1

Pipeline Fault Tree Analysis Input Rationalization

CAUSE Shallow Medium Deep

CLASSIFICATION

Spill

Size Frequency Change % Reason

ARCTIC MODIFIED

CORROSION

External All (50) (50) (50) Limited temperature and bio effects. Extra smart pigging.

Internal All (30) (30) (30) Extra smart pigging.

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

Anchor Impact All (90) (90) (90) Low traffic.

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (50) (50) (50) Low facility density.

Trawl/Fishing Net All (90) (90) (90) Low fishing activity.

OPERATION IMPACT

Rig Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No marine traffic during ice season (8 months).

Work Boat Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No work boat traffic during ice season (8 months).

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide All (80) (60) (40) Gradient low. Mud slide potential (gradient) increases with water depth.

Storm/ Hurricane All (50) (50) (50) Fewer severe storms.

Freq. Inc. per 105 km-yr

ARCTIC UNIQUE Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.3495 0.1747 S

0.0680 0.0340

0.6178 0.3089 M

0.1210 0.0605

1.3438 0.6719 L

0.2610 0.1305

0.3762 0.1881

Ice Gouging

H

0.0730 0.0365

Ice gouge failure rate calculated using exponential failure distribution for 2.5-m

cover, 0.2-m average gouge depth, 4 gouges per km-yr flux. Spill size

Distribution explained in text Section 2.5.2

0.0021 S

0.0012

0.0038 M

0.0020

0.0082 L

0.0045

0.0023

Strudel Scour

H

0.0012

Only in shallow water. Average frequency of 4 scours/mile2 and 100 ft of bridge

length with 10% conditional P/L failure probability. The same spill size

distribution as above.

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 S

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 M

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0016 0.0016 0.0016 L

0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

Upheaval Buckling

H

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

All water depth. The failure frequency is 20% of that of Strudel Scour.

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 S

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 M

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 L

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

Thaw Settlement

H

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

All water depth. The failure frequency is 10% of that of Strudel Scour.

0.0881 0.0438 0.0002 S

0.0174 0.0086 0.0001

0.1557 0.0775 0.0003 M

0.0309 0.0153 0.0002

0.3386 0.1686 0.0006 L

0.0667 0.0330 0.0003

0.0948 0.0472 0.0002

Other

H

0.0187 0.0092 0.0001

To be assessed as 25% of above.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.8

ß Storms – Considerably fewer severe storms are anticipated on an annual basis

in the Arctic than in GOM, due to damping of the ocean surface by ice cover.

ß Arctic effects – Arctic effects are effects which are unique to the Arctic and

are not reflected in the historical fault tree itself. Arctic effects were discussed

in detail in Chapter 2, Section 2.5. The discussion in that section is

summarized in the right hand column of Table 4.1. The frequency increments

in this table are given as both the “expected” values and the “median” values.

The expected values are the expected values given in Table 2.9. The median

values, however, are those calculated using the Monte Carlo method with the

low, expected, and high values from Table 2.9, as inputs to the Monte Carlo.

These median values are clearly considerably higher than the expected values.

This lack of coincidence between expected and median values is due to the

skewness of the distribution.

4.3.2 Arctic Pipeline Fault Tree Frequency Calculations

Incorporation of the frequency effects as variations in and additions to the historical

frequencies can be represented in a fault tree, as shown for the large spill size for Arctic

pipelines in Figure 4.4. In this figure, the historical frequency as well as that associated

with small, medium, and deep-water zones are shown under each of the event boxes.

Each box is further split into two, for pipelines < and = 10” diameter as represented in the

historical database. Such fault trees were developed for all of the pipeline spill sizes, and

these additional spill size fault trees, for small, medium, and huge spills are presented in

Appendix C, where the complete calculations are given.

Of greatest importance, however, are the pipeline failure frequencies or failure rates per

km-yr. These failure rates for the entire range of spill sizes, small, medium, large, and

huge, are given in Tables 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, and 4.5, respectively.

Indeed, a huge array of numbers is shown in these tables. Consider Table 4.4 (page 4.12),

which is the frequency calculation corresponding to the large spill size fault tree shown in

Figure 4.4. Consider the bottom line opposite totals. What the table tells us is that the

total spill frequency for pipelines less than 10” diameter was, as we well know, 2.799

(per 105 km-yr) historically. With the frequency changes attributable to Arctic effects,

this frequency is reduced to 2.636 for shallow water, to 1.812 for medium depth water,

and to 1.015 for deep water. A similar trend in the reduction of failure frequencies with

increasing water depth for pipelines greater than 10” is manifested in the right hand side

of the table. Because the frequencies per unit pipeline length and operating year are the

key drivers in the balance of the analysis, they have been given in the body of the report

(in Tables 4.2 to 4.5) for each of the spill sizes for pipelines.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.9

Figure 4.4

Large Spill Size Frequencies for Pipeline
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.10

Table 4.2

Pipeline Small Spill Size Frequencies

SMALL SPILL*

Pipeline Diameter <10” Pipeline Diameter = 10”

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE CLASSIFICATION

HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

(spill per 105 km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

FREQUENCY

(spill per 10

5km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 16.67 0.467 (0.171) 0.295 15.71 (0.171) 0.295 17.42 (0.171) 0.295 19.18 0.300 (0.110) 0.190 13.91 (0.110) 0.190 16.25 (0.110) 0.190 19.18

External 5.56 0.156 (0.078) 0.078 4.14 (0.078) 0.078 4.58 (0.078) 0.078 5.05 0.100 (0.050) 0.050 3.66 (0.050) 0.050 4.28 (0.050) 0.050 5.05

Internal 11.11 0.311 (0.093) 0.218 11.58 (0.093) 0.218 12.83 (0.093) 0.218 14.13 0.200 (0.060) 0.140 10.25 (0.060) 0.140 11.98 (0.060) 0.140 14.13

THIRD PARTY

IMPACT

38.89 1.089 (0.871) 0.218 11.58 (0.871) 0.218 12.83 (0.871) 0.218 14.13 0.701 (0.561) 0.140 10.25 (0.561) 0.140 11.98 (0.561) 0.140 14.13

Anchor Impact 33.33 0.933 (0.746) 0.187 9.93 (0.746) 0.187 11.00 (0.746) 0.187 12.11 0.601 (0.480) 0.120 8.79 (0.480) 0.120 10.26 (0.480) 0.120 12.11

Jackup Rig or Spud

Barge

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.156 (0.124) 0.031 1.65 (0.124) 0.031 1.83 (0.124) 0.031 2.02 0.100 (0.080) 0.020 1.46 (0.080) 0.020 1.71 (0.080) 0.020 2.02

OPERATION

IMPACT

16.67 0.467 (0.093) 0.373 19.85 (0.093) 0.373 22.00 (0.093) 0.373 24.23 0.300 (0.060) 0.240 17.57 (0.060) 0.240 20.53 (0.060) 0.240 24.22

Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.156 (0.031) 0.124 6.62 (0.031) 0.124 7.33 (0.031) 0.124 8.08 0.100 (0.020) 0.080 5.86 (0.020) 0.080 6.84 (0.020) 0.080 8.07

Work Boat

Anchoring

11.11 0.311 (0.062) 0.249 13.23 (0.062) 0.249 14.67 (0.062) 0.249 16.15 0.200 (0.040) 0.160 11.71 (0.040) 0.160 13.69 (0.040) 0.160 16.15

MECHANICAL 11.11 0.311 0.311 16.54 0.311 18.33 0.311 20.19 0.200 0.200 14.64 0.200 17.11 0.200 20.19

Connection Failure 5.56 0.156 0.156 8.27 0.156 9.17 0.156 10.10 0.100 0.100 7.32 0.100 8.55 0.100 10.09

Material Failure 5.56 0.156 0.156 8.27 0.156 9.17 0.156 10.10 0.100 0.100 7.32 0.100 8.55 0.100 10.09

NATURAL

HAZARD

11.11 0.311 (0.224) 0.087 4.62 (0.187) 0.124 7.33 (0.124) 0.187 12.11 0.200 (0.144) 0.056 4.09 (0.120) 0.080 6.84 (0.080) 0.120 12.11

Mud Slide 11.11 0.311 (0.224) 0.087 4.62 (0.187) 0.124 7.33 (0.124) 0.187 12.11 0.200 (0.144) 0.056 4.09 (0.120) 0.080 6.84 (0.080) 0.120 12.11

Storm/ Hurricane

ARCTIC 0.440 0.440 23.42 0.219 0.219 12.92 0.001 0.001 0.05 0.440 0.440 32.21 0.219 0.219 18.74 0.001 0.001 0.08

Ice Gouging 0.3495 0.3495 18.59 0.1747 0.1747 10.30 0.3495 0.3495 25.56 0.1747 0.1747 14.93

Strudel Scour 0.0021 0.0021 0.11 0.0021 0.0021 0.16

Upheaval Buckling 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0004 0.0004 0.04 0.0004 0.0004 0.04

Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02

Other 0.0881 0.0881 4.68 0.0438 0.0438 2.58 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0881 0.0881 6.44 0.0438 0.0438 3.75 0.0002 0.0002 0.02

UNKNOWN 5.56 0.156 0.156 8.27 0.156 9.17 0.156 10.10 0.100 0.100 7.32 0.100 8.55 0.100 10.09

TOTALS 100.00 2.799 (0.919) 1.880 100.00 (1.103) 1.697 100.00 (1.259) 1.540 100.00 1.802 (0.435) 1.367 100.00 (0.632) 1.170 100.00 (0.810) 0.992 100.00

* Small (S) - = 50 < 100 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.11

Table 4.3

Pipeline Medium Spill Size Frequencies

MEDIUM SPILL*

Pipeline Diameter <10" Pipeline Diameter = 10"

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE CLASSIFICATION

HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

(spill per 105 km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

FREQUENCY

(spill per 10

5km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 16.67 0.816 (0.299) 0.517 15.68 (0.299) 0.517 17.39 (0.299) 0.517 19.18 0.751 (0.275) 0.475 15.36 (0.275) 0.475 17.20 (0.275) 0.475 19.18

External 5.56 0.272 (0.136) 0.136 4.13 (0.136) 0.136 4.58 (0.136) 0.136 5.05 0.250 (0.125) 0.125 4.04 (0.125) 0.125 4.53 (0.125) 0.125 5.05

Internal 11.11 0.544 (0.163) 0.381 11.55 (0.163) 0.381 12.82 (0.163) 0.381 14.13 0.500 (0.150) 0.350 11.32 (0.150) 0.350 12.67 (0.150) 0.350 14.13

THIRD PARTY

IMPACT

38.89 1.905 (1.524) 0.381 11.55 (1.524) 0.381 12.82 (1.524) 0.381 14.13 1.752 (1.401) 0.350 11.32 (1.401) 0.350 12.67 (1.401) 0.350 14.13

Anchor Impact 33.33 1.633 (1.306) 0.327 9.90 (1.306) 0.327 10.98 (1.306) 0.327 12.11 1.501 (1.201) 0.300 9.70 (1.201) 0.300 10.86 (1.201) 0.300 12.11

Jackup Rig or Spud

Barge

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.272 (0.218) 0.054 1.65 (0.218) 0.054 1.83 (0.218) 0.054 2.02 0.250 (0.200) 0.050 1.62 (0.200) 0.050 1.81 (0.200) 0.050 2.02

OPERATION

IMPACT

16.67 0.816 (0.163) 0.653 19.80 (0.163) 0.653 21.97 (0.163) 0.653 24.23 0.751 (0.150) 0.601 19.40 (0.150) 0.601 21.72 (0.150) 0.601 24.23

Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.272 (0.054) 0.218 6.60 (0.054) 0.218 7.32 (0.054) 0.218 8.08 0.250 (0.050) 0.200 6.47 (0.050) 0.200 7.24 (0.050) 0.200 8.08

Work Boat

Anchoring

11.11 0.544 (0.109) 0.435 13.20 (0.109) 0.435 14.65 (0.109) 0.435 16.15 0.500 (0.100) 0.400 12.93 (0.100) 0.400 14.48 (0.100) 0.400 16.15

MECHANICAL 11.11 0.544 0.544 16.50 0.544 18.31 0.544 20.19 0.500 0.500 16.17 0.500 18.10 0.500 20.19

Connection Failure 5.56 0.272 0.272 8.25 0.272 9.15 0.272 10.10 0.250 0.250 8.08 0.250 9.05 0.250 10.10

Material Failure 5.56 0.272 0.272 8.25 0.272 9.15 0.272 10.10 0.250 0.250 8.08 0.250 9.05 0.250 10.10

NATURAL

HAZARD

11.11 0.544 (0.392) 0.152 4.61 (0.327) 0.218 7.32 (0.218) 0.327 12.11 0.500 (0.361) 0.140 4.52 (0.300) 0.200 7.24 (0.200) 0.300 12.11

Mud Slide 11.11 0.544 (0.392) 0.152 4.61 (0.327) 0.218 7.32 (0.218) 0.327 12.11 0.500 (0.361) 0.140 4.52 (0.300) 0.200 7.24 (0.200) 0.300 12.11

Storm/ Hurricane

ARCTIC 0.778 0.778 23.60 0.388 0.388 13.04 0.001 0.001 0.05 0.778 0.778 25.15 0.388 0.388 14.02 0.001 0.001 0.06

Ice Gouging 0.6178 0.6178 18.73 0.3089 0.3089 10.39 0.6178 0.6178 19.96 0.3089 0.3089 11.17

Strudel Scour 0.0038 0.0038 0.11 0.0038 0.0038 0.12

Upheaval Buckling 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.03

Thaw Settlement 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.02

Other 0.1557 0.1557 4.72 0.0775 0.0775 2.61 0.0003 0.0003 0.01 0.1557 0.1557 5.03 0.0775 0.0775 2.80 0.0003 0.0003 0.01

UNKNOWN 5.56 0.272 0.272 8.25 0.272 9.15 0.272 10.10 0.250 0.250 8.08 0.250 9.05 0.250 10.10

TOTALS 100.00 4.899 (1.600) 3.298 100.0 (1.926) 2.973 100.00 (2.203) 2.696 100.00 4.504 (1.409) 3.095 100.00 (1.739) 2.765 100.00 (2.025) 2.479 100.00

* Medium (M) - = 100 < 1,000 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.12

Table 4.4

Pipeline Large Spill Size Frequencies

LARGE SPILL*

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >10"

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE CLASSIFICATION

HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

(spill per 105 km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

FREQUENCY

(spill per 10

5km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

CORROSION 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 5.72 (0.065) 0.151 8.32 (0.065) 0.151 14.85 0.4158 (0.125) 0.291 8.28 (0.125) 0.291 10.72 (0.125) 0.291 14.87

External

Internal 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 5.72 (0.065) 0.151 8.32 (0.065) 0.151 14.85 0.4158 (0.125) 0.291 8.28 (0.125) 0.291 10.72 (0.125) 0.291 14.87

THIRD PARTY

IMPACT 69.23 1.938 (1.486) 0.452 17.15 (1.486) 0.452 24.96 (1.486) 0.452 44.54 3.7419 (2.869) 0.873 24.85 (2.869) 0.873 32.17 (2.869) 0.873 44.61

Anchor Impact 30.77 0.861 (0.689) 0.172 6.53 (0.689) 0.172 9.51 (0.689) 0.172 16.97 1.6631 (1.330) 0.333 9.47 (1.330) 0.333 12.26 (1.330) 0.333 16.99

Jackup Rig or Spud

Barge

7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 4.08 (0.108) 0.108 5.94 (0.108) 0.108 10.61 0.4158 (0.208) 0.208 5.92 (0.208) 0.208 7.66 (0.208) 0.208 10.62

Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.861 (0.689) 0.172 6.53 (0.689) 0.172 9.51 (0.689) 0.172 16.97 1.6631 (1.330) 0.333 9.47 (1.330) 0.333 12.26 (1.330) 0.333 16.99

OPERATION

IMPACT 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 6.53 (0.043) 0.172 9.51 (0.043) 0.172 16.97 0.4158 (0.083) 0.333 9.47 (0.083) 0.333 12.26 (0.083) 0.333 16.99

Rig Anchoring

Work Boat

Anchoring 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 6.53 (0.043) 0.172 9.51 (0.043) 0.172 16.97 0.4158 (0.083) 0.333 9.47 (0.083) 0.333 12.26 (0.083) 0.333 16.99

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure

Material Failure

NATURAL

HAZARD 15.38 0.431 (0.263) 0.168 6.37 (0.237) 0.194 10.70 (0.194) 0.237 23.33 0.8315 (0.507) 0.324 9.22 (0.457) 0.374 13.79 (0.374) 0.457 23.37

Mud Slide 7.69 0.215 (0.155) 0.060 2.28 (0.129) 0.086 4.75 (0.086) 0.129 12.73 0.4158 (0.300) 0.116 3.31 (0.249) 0.166 6.13 (0.166) 0.249 12.75

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 4.08 (0.108) 0.108 5.94 (0.108) 0.108 10.61 0.4158 (0.208) 0.208 5.92 (0.208) 0.208 7.66 (0.208) 0.208 10.62

ARCTIC 1.693 1.693 64.23 0.843 0.843 46.52 0.003 0.003 0.30 1.693 1.693 48.18 0.843 0.843 31.06 0.003 0.003 0.16

Ice Gouging 1.3438 1.3438 50.98 0.6719 0.6719 37.08 1.3438 1.3438 38.24 0.6719 0.6719 24.76

Strudel Scour 0.0082 0.0082 0.31 0.0082 0.0082 0.23

Upheaval Buckling 0.0016 0.0016 0.06 0.0016 0.0016 0.09 0.0016 0.0016 0.16 0.0016 0.0016 0.05 0.0016 0.0016 0.06 0.0016 0.0016 0.08

Thaw Settlement 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.05 0.0008 0.0008 0.08 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.04

Other 0.3386 0.3386 12.85 0.1686 0.1686 9.30 0.0006 0.0006 0.06 0.3386 0.3386 9.64 0.1686 0.1686 6.21 0.0006 0.0006 0.03

UNKNOWN

TOTALS 100.00 2.799 (0.163) 2.636 100.00 (0.987) 1.812 100.00 (1.784) 1.015 100.00 5.4050 (1.891) 3.514 100.00 (2.691) 2.714 100.00 (3.448) 1.957 100.00

* Large (L) - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.13

Table 4.5

Pipeline Huge Spill Size Frequencies

HUGE SPILL*

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >10"

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE CLASSIFICATION

HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

(spill per 105 km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

FREQUENCY

(spill per 10

5km-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New

Distribution %

CORROSION 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 5.31 (0.016) 0.038 7.88 (0.016) 0.038 14.84 0.1386 (0.042) 0.097 8.98 (0.042) 0.097 11.29 (0.042) 0.097 14.87

External

Internal 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 5.31 (0.016) 0.038 7.88 (0.016) 0.038 14.84 0.1386 (0.042) 0.097 8.98 (0.042) 0.097 11.29 (0.042) 0.097 14.87

THIRD PARTY

IMPACT 69.23 0.485 (0.372) 0.113 15.93 (0.372) 0.113 23.64 (0.372) 0.113 44.53 1.2475 (0.956) 0.291 26.93 (0.956) 0.291 33.86 (0.956) 0.291 44.62

Anchor Impact 30.77 0.215 (0.172) 0.043 6.07 (0.172) 0.043 9.01 (0.172) 0.043 16.96 0.5545 (0.444) 0.111 10.26 (0.444) 0.111 12.90 (0.444) 0.111 17.00

Jackup Rig or Spud

Barge 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 3.79 (0.027) 0.027 5.63 (0.027) 0.027 10.60 0.1386 (0.069) 0.069 6.41 (0.069) 0.069 8.06 (0.069) 0.069 10.62

Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.215 (0.172) 0.043 6.07 (0.172) 0.043 9.01 (0.172) 0.043 16.96 0.5545 (0.444) 0.111 10.26 (0.444) 0.111 12.90 (0.444) 0.111 17.00

OPERATION

IMPACT 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 6.07 (0.011) 0.043 9.01 (0.011) 0.043 16.96 0.1386 (0.028) 0.111 10.26 (0.028) 0.111 12.90 (0.028) 0.111 17.00

Rig Anchoring

Work Boat

Anchoring 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 6.07 (0.011) 0.043 9.01 (0.011) 0.043 16.96 0.1386 (0.028) 0.111 10.26 (0.028) 0.111 12.90 (0.028) 0.111 17.00

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure

Material Failure

NATURAL

HAZARD 15.38 0.108 (0.066) 0.042 5.91 (0.059) 0.048 10.13 (0.048) 0.059 23.32 0.2772 (0.169) 0.108 9.99 (0.152) 0.125 14.51 (0.125) 0.152 23.37

Mud Slide 7.69 0.054 (0.039) 0.015 2.12 (0.032) 0.022 4.50 (0.022) 0.032 12.72 0.1386 (0.100) 0.039 3.58 (0.083) 0.055 6.45 (0.055) 0.083 12.75

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 3.79 (0.027) 0.027 5.63 (0.027) 0.027 10.60 0.1386 (0.069) 0.069 6.41 (0.069) 0.069 8.06 (0.069) 0.069 10.62

ARCTIC 0.474 0.474 66.78 0.236 0.236 49.34 0.001 0.001 0.34 0.474 0.474 43.85 0.236 0.236 27.45 0.001 0.001 0.13

Ice Gouging 0.3762 0.3762 53.00 0.1881 0.1881 39.33 0.3762 0.3762 34.80 0.1881 0.1881 21.88

Strudel Scour 0.0023 0.0023 0.32 0.0023 0.0023 0.21

Upheaval Buckling 0.0005 0.0005 0.06 0.0005 0.0005 0.10 0.0005 0.0005 0.18 0.0005 0.0005 0.04 0.0005 0.0005 0.05 0.0005 0.0005 0.07

Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.03 0.0002 0.0002 0.05 0.0002 0.0002 0.09 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.03 0.0002 0.0002 0.04

Other 0.0948 0.0948 13.36 0.0472 0.0472 9.87 0.0002 0.0002 0.07 0.0948 0.0948 8.77 0.0472 0.0472 5.49 0.0002 0.0002 0.03

UNKNOWN

TOTALS 100.00 0.700 0.010 0.710 100.00 (0.222) 0.478 100.00 (0.446) 0.254 100.00 1.8020 (0.721) 1.081 100.00 (0.942) 0.860 100.00 (1.150) 0.652 100.00

* Huge (H) - = 10,000 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.14

 4.3.3 Arctic Pipeline Frequency Input Uncertainty Variations

In order to assess the impact of uncertainties in the Arctic hazard effects incorporated

fault trees, ranges around the expected value have been estimated for all the Arctic

effects, both modified and unique for Arctic effects. The numerical distributions

generated through these perturbations in the expected values are modeled as triangular

distributions and input to the Monte Carlo simulation analysis conducted as part of the

result generation. Table 4.6 shows the unique effect perturbations about the expected

value, indicated as low and high. In fact, the low value is defined as the 90% probability

of exceedance, while the high one is at the 10% probability of exceedance. The variations

in the modified effects were estimated utilizing engineering judgement. For the unique

effects, however, the ranges were estimated as described in Section 2.5.2, using

parametric analysis.

4.4 Platform Fault Tree Analysis

4.4.1 Arctic Platform Fault Tree Inputs

Table 4.7 summarizes the variations in the modified and unique Arctic effect inputs for

platforms. As for pipeline unique effects, both the expected and Monte Carlo median

values are given.

The first three modified cause classifications, the process facility release, storage tank

release, and structural failure were reduced by 30 to 50% primarily as a result of the

state-of-art engineering, construction, and operational standards and practices expected.

As before, storms tend to be less severe in the Arctic, and certainly during the ice season

would have limited impact on the facility. Due to the extremely low traffic density, as for

the case of pipelines, the ship collision cause has been reduced by 90 percent.

Unique effects are also included. Relatively small increments in facility spills were

attributed to ice force, low temperature effects, and unknown effects which were taken as

a percentage of the other unique Arctic effects. Ice force effect calculations were based

on the 1/10,000 year ice force (1/250,000 well year) causing spills, predominantly small

and medium. Ice forces are also considered to increase as a contributor to oil spill

occurrences with water depth, due to the increasing severity of ice loads as one moves

towards the edge of the landfast ice zone with increasing water depth. Increase of low

temperature effects with water depth was estimated as 10% of historical process facility

spill rates.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.15

Table 4.6

Arctic Pipeline Impact Uncertainty Variations

Water Depth

Shallow Medium Deep

Frequency Change %

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

Spill

Size

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected High

ARCTIC MODIFIED

CORROSION

External All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Internal All (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45)

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

Anchor Impact All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Jackup Rig or Spud

Barge

All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Trawl/Fishing Net All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

OPERATION IMPACT

Rig Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Work Boat Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide All (50) (80) (90) (30) (60) (90) (20) (40) (60)

Storm/ Hurricane All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Frequency Increment per 105 km-year

ARCTIC UNIQUE

S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0030 0.0340 0.4145

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0045 0.0605 0.7335

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0105 0.1305 1.5950 Ice Gouging

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0030 0.0365 0.4465

S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170 Strudel Scour

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 Upheaval Buckling

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

S 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044

M 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078

L 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 Thaw Settlement

H 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048

S 0.00162 0.01738 0.20869 0.00078 0.00859 0.10396 0.00003 0.00009 0.00033

M 0.00246 0.03092 0.36929 0.00117 0.01528 0.18396 0.00005 0.00015 0.00059

L 0.00571 0.06670 0.80303 0.00273 0.03296 0.40003 0.00011 0.00033 0.00128 Other

H 0.00163 0.01865 0.22480 0.00078 0.00922 0.11198 0.00003 0.00009 0.00036
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.16

Table 4.7

Platform Fault Tree Input Rationalization

Frequency Change % CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

Spill

Size

Shallow Medium Deep

Reason

ARCTIC MODIFIED

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (50) (50) (50) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and

Maintenance Requirements

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and

Maintenance Requirements

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (30) (30) (30) High safety factor, Monitoring Programs

HURRICANE/STORM All (80) (80) (80) Less severe storms.

COLLISION All (90) (90) (90) Very low traffic density.

Freq. Increment per 104 well-year

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

ARCTIC UNIQUE

0.1447 0.2170 0.3256

SM

0.0340 0.0510 0.0765

0.0255 0.0383 0.0575

Ice Force

HL

0.0060 0.0090 0.0135

Assumed 1/10000 years ice force causes spill. 85% of the

spills are SM.

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

SM

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

Facility Low Temperature

HL

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

Assumed 10% of Historical Process Facilities release

frequency and corresponding spill size distribution.

0.0244 0.0316 0.0424

SM

0.0134 0.0151 0.0177

0.0033 0.0046 0.0065

Other

HL

0.0014 0.0017 0.0022

10% of above.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.17

4.4.2 Arctic Platform Fault Tree Spill Frequency Calculations

Figure 4.5 shows the fault tree developed for Arctic platform spills for the different water

depth zones for large and huge spill sizes, which were grouped together as described for

platforms in Chapter 2. Again, the fault tree gives the historical value, together with the

calculated values for shallow, medium, and deep water. In the case of this particular fault

tree, there was room to represent both the small and medium or less than 1,000 bbl and

the large and huge or greater than 1,000 bbl spills. Like pipelines, it is evident that

platforms manifest a somewhat lower frequency for both spill size categories for the

Arctic conditions. Tables 4.8 and 4.9 show the frequency calculations for platforms for

small and medium and large and huge spill sizes, respectively.

4.4.3 Platform Arctic Effect Frequency Input Variations

Again, for the calculation of probability distributions of the effects of the frequency

changes attributable to the Arctic environment and operations, variations about the

expected value were estimated. Table 4.10 shows this range of variations for the platform

spill frequencies. These are later utilized in the development of probability distributions

for the oil spill occurrence indicator using a Monte Carlo process.

4.3 Blowout Frequency Analysis

As the base case blowout values have not been altered for Arctic effects, no fault tree for

well blowouts is required. However, a summary of the historical frequencies to be used in

blowout oil spill occurrence calculations is given in Table 4.11.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.18

Figure 4.5

Spill Frequencies for Platforms
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.19

Table 4.8

Platform Small and Medium Spill Size Frequencies

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

(spill per 10

4well-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 1.002 (0.541) 0.461 47.85 (0.541) 0.4615 44.20 (0.541) 0.4615 39.67

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.06 (0.025) 0.0585 5.60 (0.025) 0.0585 5.03

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.06 (0.025) 0.0585 5.60 (0.025) 0.0585 5.03

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 0.167 (0.084) 0.084 8.66 (0.084) 0.0835 8.00 (0.084) 0.0835 7.18

COLLISION 11.11 0.167 (0.134) 0.033 3.46 (0.134) 0.0334 3.20 (0.134) 0.0334 2.87

ARCTIC 0.269 0.269 27.90 0.349 0.3486 33.39 0.468 0.4680 40.23

Ice Force 0.145 0.145 15.00 0.217 0.2170 20.79 0.326 0.3256 27.98

Facility Low Temperature 0.100 0.100 10.37 0.100 0.1000 9.58 0.100 0.1000 8.60

Other 0.024 0.024 2.53 0.032 0.0316 3.03 0.042 0.0424 3.65

TOTALS 100.00 1.504 (0.539) 0.964 100.00 (0.460) 1.0440 100.00 (0.340) 1.1634 100.00

Table 4.9

Platform Large and Huge Spill Size Frequencies

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

(spill per 10

4well-yr)

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 33.33 0.0835 (0.045) 0.0385 20.00 (0.045) 0.0385 18.64 (0.045) 0.0385 16.91

STORAGE TANK RLS. 66.67 0.1671 (0.050) 0.1169 60.82 (0.050) 0.1169 56.68 (0.050) 0.1169 51.43

STRUCTURAL FAILURE

HURRICANE/STORM

COLLISION

ARCTIC 0.037 0.0369 19.18 0.051 0.0509 24.68 0.072 0.0720 31.66

Ice Force 0.026 0.0255 13.28 0.038 0.0383 18.56 0.057 0.0575 25.27

Facility Low Temperature 0.008 0.0080 4.16 0.008 0.0080 3.88 0.008 0.0080 3.52

Other 0.003 0.0033 1.74 0.005 0.0046 2.24 0.007 0.0065 2.87

TOTALS 100.00 0.2506 (0.058) 0.1923 100.00 (0.044) 0.2063 100.00 (0.023) 0.2274 100.00
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.20

Table 4.10

Platform Arctic Effects Frequency Variations

Shallow Medium Deep

Frequency Change % CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

Spill

Size

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected High

ARCTIC MODIFIED

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) (80)

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40)

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40)

HURRICANE/STORM All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

COLLISION All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Frequency Increment per 104 well-year

ARCTIC UNIQUE

SM 0.003 0.034 0.340 0.005 0.051 0.510 0.008 0.077 0.765

 - Ice Force

HL 0.001 0.006 0.060 0.001 0.009 0.090 0.001 0.014 0.135

SM 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150

 - Facility Low Temperature

HL 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012

SM 0.005 0.013 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.066 0.006 0.018 0.092

 - Other

HL 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.001 0.002 0.015
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

4.21

Table 4.11

Blowout Frequencies

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS LARGE SPILL

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

EVENT FREQUENCY

UNIT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTION WELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500

EXPLORATION WELL

spill

per 105

wells

3.160 3.160 3.160 3.160 22.110 22.110 22.110 22.110

DEVELOPMENT WELL

spill

per 105

wells

1.300 1.300 1.300 1.300 9.080 9.080 9.080 9.080

SPILL SIZE - 10000 - 150000 BBL SPILL SIZE - > 150000 BBL

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

EVENT FREQUENCY

UNIT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTION WELL

spill

per 105

well-year

1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

EXPLORATION WELL

spill

per 105

wells

9.500 9.500 9.500 9.500 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500

DEVELOPMENT WELL

spill

per 105

wells

3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.1

CHAPTER 5

OIL SPILL OCCURRENCE INDICATOR QUANTIFICATION

5.1 Definition of Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

Three primary oil spill occurrence indicators (generally referred to as “spill indicators”

after this) were quantified in this study. These are as follows:

ß Frequency in spills per year.

ß Frequency in spills per barrel produced in each year.

ß Spill index, the product of spill frequency and associated average spill size.

The spill indicators defined above are subdivided as follows for this study:

ß By scenario (eight scenarios).

ß By water depth (three ranges).

ß By facility type (six types).

ß By spill size (four sizes).

ß By year (between 10 and 38 years depending on scenario).

The above combinations translate into 576 sets of spill indicators, for a total of 1,728

individual indicators. Given that these are calculated for each year, with most of the

scenarios lasting roughly for 35 years, gives 60,480 indicators. In this chapter, we will try

to summarize only the salient results of the indicators; Appendix C gives the full

calculation printouts for the Monte Carlo results used in the body of this report, while

Appendix D gives the expected value calculations and results.

5.2 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicator Calculation Process

The oil spill occurrence indicator calculation process is shown in the flow chart originally

given in Figure 1.3, and again presented as Figure 5.1. The steps corresponding to Tasks

2, 3, and 4A have been described in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, respectively. This chapter deals

with Task 4B.

Essentially, this chapter addresses the combining of the development scenarios described

in Chapter 3 with the unit-spill frequency distributions presented in Chapter 4 to provide

measures of oil spill occurrence, the oil spill indicators. Although the calculation is

complex because of the many combinations considered (approximately 60,000), in

principle, it is a simple process of accounting. Essentially, the quantities of potential oil

spill sources are multiplied by their appropriate unit oil spill frequency to give the total

expected spill distributions. To develop the probability distributions by the Monte Carlo

process, each of the 60,000 combinations needs to be sampled, in this case a sampling of

5,000 iterations was carried out for each combination studied. This translates into roughly

300 million arithmetic operations to generate the Monte Carlo results.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.2

Figure 5.1

Flow Chart
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.3

5.3 Summary of Beaufort Sea Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

5.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

Each of the principal oil spill occurrence indicators calculated for the composite of

facilities under Sale 1 is given in Figures 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4.

As can be seen, each of these figures spans the development scenario to year 2029

described in Chapter 3. Further, each of the indicators has been subdivided into three

segments for each year, those corresponding to spills < 1,000 bbl (small and medium),

spills = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl (large), and spills =10,000 bbl (huge). It should be noted that

the spill frequency associated with each spill size is only the increment shown in each of

the bars. Thus, for example, for the year 2020, small and medium spills are

approximately 10.0 per thousand years. Next, in that year, large spills are approximately

4.5 per thousand years, as shown in the second bar increment (i.e., 14.5 - 10 = 4.5).

Finally, the top increment corresponds to huge spills, and is approximately 2.5 per

thousand years. The same form of presentation applies for spills per barrel produced and

for the spill index shown in Figures 5.3 and 5.4. Clearly, the spill index is dominated by

the huge spills, which have an average spill size of 20,000 bbl. The spills per barrel

produced continue to rise beyond the peak production year of 2016, because the facility

quantities (and hence spill rate) remain relatively high, while production volumes

decrease significantly each year. The reader should note that following this detailed

presentation of the spill indicators in separate figures, all three spill indicators will be

given in one figure in order to conserve space and make the report a little more concise.

Spill indicators by facility type were also quantified. All three spill indicators for

pipelines for Beaufort Sea Sale 1 are shown in Figure 5.5. Figure 5.6 shows the spill

indicators for platforms and Figure 5.7 shows the spill indicators for drilling of wells and

producing wells. Numerous conclusions can be drawn from the comparison of these spill

indicators. For example, it can be seen that the major contributors to spill frequency are

platforms. The largest of the facility spill expectations, as represented by spill index, are

the wells, simply because they have the potential to release the largest amounts of oil in

blowouts.

Finally, as part of the assessment of each lease sale or development scenario, a Monte

Carlo analysis was carried out for each year, with the distributed inputs described earlier.

For Lease Sale 1, tabular results of the Monte Carlo simulation of 5,000 iterations for

distributions in Arctic effects inputs only, is summarized in Table 5.1. This table gives

the statistical characteristics of the calculated indicators for each of three spill size ranges,

as well as a tabular summary of their cumulative distribution curves for a representative

production year (2016). Figure 5.8 shows graphs of the calculated cumulative distribution

functions. Basically, the vertical axis gives the probability in percent that the

corresponding value on the horizontal axis will not be exceeded. Thus, for example,

referring to the central graph, for spills < 1,000 bbl (small and medium), there is a 40%

probability that a spill frequency will be no more than 0.2 per billion barrels produced.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.4

Figure 5.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

Figure 5.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 Barrels Produced

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.5

Figure 5.4

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.6

Figure 5.5

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicators – Pipeline

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.7

Figure 5.6

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicators - Platforms

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Large and Huge Spills

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.8

Figure 5.7

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicators - Wells

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.9

Table 5.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Year 2016 – Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1 Small and Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills

Year

2016

Frequency

Spills per

103years

Frequency

Spills per

109 bbl

Produced

Spill Index

[bbl]

Frequency

Spills per

103years

Frequency

Spills per

109 bbl

Produced

Spill Index

[bbl]

Frequency

Spills per

103years

Frequency

Spills per

109 bbl

Produced

Spill Index

[bbl]

Mean = 9.67 0.20 2.02 4.53 0.10 27.58 2.39 0.05 170.39

Std Deviation = 1.03 0.02 0.18 0.54 0.01 2.20 0.15 0.00 2.61

Variance = 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.29 0.00 4.84 0.02 0.00 6.83

Skewness = -0.04 -0.04 0.01 0.41 0.41 0.37 0.41 0.41 0.41

Kurtosis = 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.66 2.66 2.70 2.57 2.57 2.57

Mode = 8.63 0.18 1.83 3.97 0.09 29.13 2.33 0.05 167.05

Minimum = 6.02 0.127 1.35 3.20 0.067 21.72 2.00 0.042 163.64

5% Perc = 7.96 0.168 1.71 3.75 0.079 24.31 2.17 0.046 166.63

10% Perc = 8.34 0.176 1.78 3.88 0.082 24.90 2.21 0.046 167.23

15% Perc = 8.59 0.181 1.83 3.97 0.083 25.31 2.23 0.047 167.68

20% Perc = 8.79 0.185 1.86 4.05 0.085 25.62 2.25 0.047 168.05

25% Perc = 8.97 0.189 1.89 4.12 0.087 25.94 2.27 0.048 168.38

30% Perc = 9.13 0.192 1.92 4.19 0.088 26.22 2.29 0.048 168.72

35% Perc = 9.27 0.195 1.95 4.27 0.090 26.56 2.31 0.049 169.04

40% Perc = 9.42 0.198 1.97 4.33 0.091 26.83 2.33 0.049 169.38

45% Perc = 9.55 0.201 2.00 4.40 0.093 27.10 2.35 0.049 169.72

50% Perc = 9.67 0.204 2.02 4.46 0.094 27.38 2.37 0.050 170.05

55% Perc = 9.80 0.206 2.04 4.54 0.095 27.64 2.39 0.050 170.42

60% Perc = 9.95 0.209 2.07 4.61 0.097 27.94 2.41 0.051 170.81

65% Perc = 10.08 0.212 2.09 4.69 0.099 28.28 2.43 0.051 171.26

70% Perc = 10.22 0.215 2.11 4.79 0.101 28.65 2.46 0.052 171.73

75% Perc = 10.37 0.218 2.14 4.89 0.103 29.09 2.49 0.052 172.22

80% Perc = 10.54 0.222 2.17 5.00 0.105 29.49 2.52 0.053 172.78

85% Perc = 10.73 0.226 2.21 5.12 0.108 30.00 2.55 0.054 173.30

90% Perc = 11.01 0.232 2.26 5.28 0.111 30.67 2.60 0.055 174.12

95% Perc = 11.36 0.239 2.33 5.52 0.116 31.58 2.65 0.056 175.06

Maximum = 13.01 0.274 2.65 6.33 0.133 35.39 2.85 0.060 178.64
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.10

Figure 5.8

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Indicator Distributions

 Spill Frequency CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Produced CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.11

In other words, there is a 40% chance that small and medium spills will occur at a rate of

0.2 per billion or less. Conversely, there is a 60% chance that the small and medim spill

rate will be greater than 0.2 per billion. The distributions show relatively small variance;

this is largely attributable to the fact that the historical data used as a basis for the

calculations, were considered to be precise; only Arctic effect input distributions were

used. The frequency spill indicator variability can be estimated from the upper (95%) and

lower (5%) bound values. For example, for large spill frequency (from Table 5.1), the

lower bound is 83% of the mean; the upper bound, 130% of the mean.

5.3.2 Beaufort Sea Lease Sale 2 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

Figure 5.9 summarizes the three oil spill occurrence indicators for Beaufort Sea Sale 2.

The primary difference is one of scheduling with some differences in magnitude of the

indicators, although they are not substantially different from those of Sale 1.

5.3.3 Beaufort Sea Lease Sale 3 Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

Figure 5.10 summarizes all three of the Beaufort Sea Sale 3 oil spill occurrence

indicators. Again, these are not substantially different from the Sale 1 and 2 indicators.

5.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale All Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

The oil spill occurrence indicators for all three Beaufort Sea Sale development scenarios

are summarized in Figure 5.11. As one would expect, the absolute values of spill

frequencies are significantly higher than any of the sales, essentially because they are the

sum, through the Monte Carlo iteration process, of the three sales spill frequencies. Spills

per barrel produced tend to be the same as those of the individual sales. Finally, the spill

index, which is the product of the frequency and average spill size, as one would expect,

is significantly higher for the composite scenario, roughly three times the average value

for the three sales. Naturally, the spill by facility breakdowns, the Monte Carlo results,

and all the details of the calculations for the composite scenario as well as each individual

sale scenario are given in Appendix C.

5.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale All Comparative Non-Arctic Indicator Assessment

To give an idea of the effect of the frequency variations introduced in Chapter 4, the

composite (Sale All) Beaufort Sea scenario was also modeled utilizing unaltered

historical frequencies. That is, no changes to incorporate the Arctic effects were

introduced in the spill indicator calculations. Put yet another way, it was assumed that the

facilities of the composite scenario would behave as if they were in the Gulf of Mexico

environment rather than in the Arctic environment. Figures 5.12, 5.13, and 5.14 show the
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.12

Figure 5.9

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Indicators

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.13

Figure 5.10

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Indicators

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.14

Figure 5.11

Beaufort Sea Sale All Indicators

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.15

Figure 5.12

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency – Arctic and Non-Arctic

Figure 5.13

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 Barrels Produced –

Arctic and Non-Arctic

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.16

Figure 5.14

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index – Arctic and Non-Arctic

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.17

total values calculated for each of the three spill indicators. The dark histogram bar on the

right side corresponds to the Arctic spill indicator, while that, on the left, corresponds to

the computation based on historical frequencies only. Spill frequency in an absolute sense

is significantly reduced for the Arctic situation roughly by 30%. The spills per barrel

produced are also significantly reduced, as can be seen in Figure 5.13. However, the spill

index, because of the disproportionate effect of large spills, shows only a small reduction

of less than 10%. What the comparison shows is that the Arctic development scenarios

will have a lower oil spill occurrence than similar development scenarios in the GOM.

5.4 Summary of Chukchi Sea Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

5.4.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

Chukchi Sea scenarios described in Chapter 3 span only 10 years. Figure 5.15 shows all

of the Chukchi Sea Base Case midpoint oil spill occurrence indicators. The spill

indicators tend to be higher than those for the Beaufort Sea individual lease sales, but are

comparable to those of the composite Beaufort Sea case. Again, the details of the

indicators are presented in Appendix C.

The variation shown by the cumulative distribution functions for each of the indicators is

shown in Figure 5.16. The Chukchi Sea small and medium spill indicators exhibit a

greater variance than their Beaufort Sea counterparts with value of lower bound (5%) and

upper bound (95%) of 67% and 150% of the mean, respectively.

5.4.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Oil Spill Occurrence Indicators

Figure 5.17 shows the Chukchi Sea High Case midpoint oil spill occurrence indicators.

Again, these indicators tend to be higher than those for the individual Beaufort Sea

components, and in this case, even higher than those of the Beaufort Sea composite and

the Chukchi Sea Base Case. This is clearly because the potential spill sources increase

significantly with the increase in the extent of the facilities. Some affects of scale,

however, can be noted in the reduction of the expected Chukchi Sea spill frequency per

barrel produced as shown in the middle graph in Figure 5.17.

Finally, the Chukchi Sea High Case indicator cumulative distribution functions are

illustrated in Figure 5.18. The same pattern of variance as for the Base Case is evident for

the High Case CDFs.

5.4.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Comparative Non-Arctic Indicator Assessments

As was done for the Beaufort Sea (Section 5.3.5), a non-Arctic comparison was carried

out for the Chukchi Sea. Figure 5.19 shows the comparative results of the calculation.

Again, the non-Arctic scenario exhibits higher oil spill occurrences through higher values

of all three oil spill indicators.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.18

Figure 5.15

Chukchi Sea Base Case Indicators

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.19

Figure 5.16

Chukchi Sea Base Case Indicator Distributions

 Spill Frequency CDF Chukchi Base Case Year 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF Chukchi Base Case Year 

2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Chukchi Base Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.20

Figure 5.17

Chukchi Sea High Case Indicators

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.21

Figure 5.18

Chukchi Sea High Case Indicator Distributions

 Spill Frequency CDF Chukchi High Case Year 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF Chukchi High Case Year 

2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Chukchi High Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.22

Figure 5.19

Comparative Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.23

5.5 Summary of Representative Oil Spill Occurrence Indicator Results

How do spill indicators for the different scenarios and for their non-Arctic counterparts

vary by spill size location. Table 5.2 summarizes the spill indicator values for

representative years. Except for the maximum spill frequency per barrel produced

indicator, which occurs in the final year of the associated scenarios, representative years

are chosen as the peak production years. The following can be observed from Table 5.2.

ß Each spill indicator for Beaufort Sea Sale 1, 2, and 3 is similar in value. The

indicators are higher for the composite “sale” scenario.

ß Chukchi Sea spill indicators are all higher than Beaufort Sea indicators.

ß Spill frequency per year and per barrel-year decreases significantly with

increasing spill size for all scenarios.

ß The spill index increases dramatically with spill size for all scenarios.

ß All non-Arctic scenario spill indicators are greater than their Arctic

counterparts. Non-Arctic spill frequencies are approximately 40% greater;

spill indices are 8% greater for the non-Arctic scenarios.

How do the spill indicators vary by facility type for representative scenarios? The

contributions of spill indicators by facility have also been summarized by representative

scenario years. Table 5.3 gives the component contributions, in absolute value and

percent, for each of the main facility types; namely, pipelines (P/L), platforms, and wells.

The following may be noted from Table 5.3:

ß For both the Beaufort and Chukchi scenarios, platforms contribute the most

(50% and 61% respectively) to the two spill frequency indicators, but the least

(5% and 6% respectively) to the spill index.

ß Pipelines in the Beaufort scenarios are next in relative contribution to spill

frequencies (31%) and intermediate in contribution to spill index (10%).

ß The relative contributions of pipelines to spill frequencies in the Chukchi,

however, are approximately the same (20%) as contributions of wells to spill

frequencies in the Chukchi.

ß Wells are by far (at 86% and 89% respectively) the highest contributors to

spill index in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, while platforms and wells are

responsible for 10% or less contribution to the spill index.

ß It can be concluded that platforms are likely to have the most, but smaller

spills, while wells will have the least number, but largest spills. Pipelines will

be in between, with a tendency towards more spills than wells, but less or

about the same number as platforms. Pipeline spill volumes will tend to be

greater than (Beaufort) or similar in size (Chukchi) to platform spills.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.24

Table 5.2

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

Year

2016

Year

2019

Year

2024

Year

2020

Year

2020

Year

2010

Year

2010

Year

2010 SPILL INDICATORS Spill Size

Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale All

Sale All

Non

Arctic

Base

Case

High

Case

High C

Non

Arctic

SM 9.97 10.17 9.84 29.98 43.90 37.66 70.18 95.17

L 4.53 4.42 4.07 13.02 17.83 15.23 25.34 36.70

H 2.39 2.34 2.21 6.93 8.31 7.68 14.38 17.85

Spill Frequency

per 103 years

All 16.88 16.93 16.12 49.93 70.04 60.58 109.91 149.72

SM 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.40 0.59 0.41 0.31 0.42

L 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.17 0.11 0.16

H 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.08

Spill Frequency

per 109 bbl produced

All 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.67 0.94 0.66 0.48 0.66

Maximum Spill

Frequency per 109 bbl

produced (year varies)

All 2.53 2.99 2.48 2.48 3.45 0.66 0.48 0.66

SM 2 2 2 6 9 8 13 19

L 28 27 26 81 102 92 171 218

H 170 169 165 505 529 534 1150 1211

Spill Index [bbl]

All 200 199 193 592 640 633 1335 1448

Table 5.3

Composition of Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS Sale All - Year 2024 High Case - Year 2010

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL

15.55 25.11 9.27 49.93 21.18 67.03 21.69 109.91 Spill Frequency

per 103 years 31% 50% 19% 100% 19% 61% 20% 100%

0.21 0.34 0.12 0.67 0.09 0.30 0.10 0.48 Spill Frequency

per 109 bbl produced 31% 50% 19% 100% 19% 61% 20% 100%

56 29 507 592 73 76 1186 1335

Spill Index [bbl]

10% 5% 86% 100% 5% 6% 89% 100%
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.25

Figure 5.20 shows the CDFs for the Beaufort Sea Sale All spill indicators. The variability

of these indicators is fairly representative of the trends in variability for spill indicators

for all sales and locations studied. Generally, the following can be observed from Figure

5.20:

ß The variance of the frequency spill indicators decreases as spill size increases.

In other words, small and medium spills illustrate the largest variability; huge

spills show the least variability.

ß The variability of the spill index shows the same trend, but with a much

smaller variability for the spill indices for all spill sizes.

Generally, in Figure 5.20, the slope of each line is an indicator of its variance.

Specifically, it was found that for all spills the upper and lower bound (95th percentile and

5

th percentile, respectively) ranged from 20% to 30%, with the smaller variances

corresponding to the Beaufort Sea scenarios and the large ones to the Chukchi Sea

scenarios. Upper (95%) and lower (5%) bounds, however, varied as much as 20 to 50%

and 20 to 35% of the mean. Since many of the variations in the Arctic inputs ranged in

excess of plus or minus 80% of the mean value, the relatively small variances suggest

that the total model is quite robust; large variances in inputs cause only small variances in

outputs. However, this small variance relates only to the Arctic effects; variance in

historical spill size and frequency was considered to be zero. Thus, the variances

discussed here characterize the uncertainties associated with the Arctic effects

incorporated through the fault tree methodology in this study.

5.6 Comparison of Monte Carlo and Expected Value Results

As has been indicated, because of the upward skewness of the Arctic input value

distributions, mean values of these distributions are generally greater than their expected

values or modes. Hence, Monte Carlo results give higher occurrence indicators than the

expected value results.

Skewness of the Arctic effect distributions results from the constraints on the lower

bound. Clearly, physical quantities such as gouge flux cannot take on a value of less than

zero; however, their upper bound is virtually unrestricted. Thus, lower bounds are

restricted to less than 100% of the expected value, while upper bounds are unrestricted

and can be several hundred percent of the expected value. If normal distributions had

been chosen for the Arctic effects, then the Monte Carlo mean values and the expected

values would have been numerically identical.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.26

Figure 5.20

Typical Spill Occurrence Indicator Variance Graphs

 Spill Frequency CDF All Sales Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All Spill Sizes

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF All sales Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl 

Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All spill Sizes

 Spill Index CDF Sale All Sales 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium

Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

All Spill Sizes
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.27

Table 5.4 compares values of the spill occurrence indicators obtained by the two

methods, and gives the difference as a percentage of the expected value result in each

case. The percentage of the expected value result is taken so that if calculations are done

using the expected value method, the simpler method, one has an idea of how much the

expected value results should be increased to reach the levels of the Monte Carlo results.

As can be seen from Table 5.4, except for wells for which no Arctic effects were

included, the Monte Carlo values are greater by as much as 76%, and vary with facility

type. The following observations can be made:

ß Beaufort Sea pipeline Monte Carlo results for frequency calculations are in

the order of 50% higher than the expected value calculations, and

approximately 20% higher for the Chukchi Sea.

ß Platform occurrence frequency indicators are in the order of 17% higher with

Monte Carlo calculations for the Beaufort Sea, and roughly 28% higher for

the Chukchi Sea.

ß Wells, as indicated earlier, show no difference with calculation method, as no

Arctic effects were introduced.

ß On the average, total frequency indicators are roughly 20% higher calculated

using the Monte Carlo method for both the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.

ß Pipeline spill indices are 76% and 32% higher for Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

locations, respectively.

ß Platform spill indices are 15% and 25% higher for Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

locations, respectively.

ß Because the average spill index under the total column is dominated by the

well spill indices, which show no Arctic effects, their overall difference is

quite low, in the order of 4%.

What the comparison demonstrates is that there is a significant difference between the

Monte Carlo and expected value results. Generally, if total development scenario

expected value results are to be used, they should be increased by at least 20% to account

for the likely skewness in the input value distributions.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

5.28

Table 5.4

Comparison of Monte Carlo and Expected Value Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

Sale All - Year 2024 High Case - Year 2010

SPILL

INDICATORS ITEM

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL

Monte Carlo 15.55 25.11 9.27 49.93 21.18 67.03 21.69 109.91

Expected Value 10.15 21.72 9.27 41.14 17.43 52.77 21.69 91.89 Spill Frequency

per 10^3 years

Difference 53% 16% 21% 22% 27% 20%

Monte Carlo 0.21 0.34 0.12 0.67 0.09 0.3 0.1 0.48

Expected Value 0.14 0.29 0.12 0.55 0.08 0.23 0.10 0.41

Spill Frequency

per 10^9 bbl

produced

Difference 55% 17% 23% 17% 29% 17%

Monte Carlo 56 29 507 592 73 76 1186 1335

Spill Index [bbl] Expected Value 32 25 507 564 55 61 1186 1302

Difference 76% 15% 5% 32% 25% 0% 3%
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.1

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Conclusions

6.1.1 Conclusions on Spill Indicator Trends

The three spill occurrence indicators – annual frequency, annual frequency per barrel

produced, and spill index – exhibit a wide range of values varying with location, scenario

year, facility composition, and spill size. For the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea locations,

comparative non-Arctic scenarios were also postulated and analyzed.

6.1.1.1 Spill Occurrence Indicator Variations by Spill Size and Location

How do spill indicators for the different scenarios and for their non-Arctic counterparts

vary by spill size and location? Table 6.1 summarizes the spill indicator values for

representative years. Representative years are chosen as the peak production years.

Figures 6.1 and 6.2 show the spill size composition associated with each scenario

representative year chosen. The total values of each spill index are also given in a

rectangle in the bottom right hand corner of each pie chart. The following can be

observed from Figures 6.1 and 6.2 and Table 6.1.

ß Each spill indicator for Beaufort Sea Sale 1, 2, and 3 is similar in value. The

indicators are higher for the composite “Sale All” scenario (Table 6.1).

ß Chukchi Sea spill indicators are all higher than Beaufort Sea indicators (Table

6.1).

ß Spill frequency per year and per barrel produced decreases significantly with

increasing spill size for all scenarios (Figures 6.1 and 6.2). The spill frequency

and spill frequency per barrel proportions are the same for any given year. Their

absolute value differs only because the latter is divided by the annual production

volume.

ß The spill index increases dramatically with spill size for all scenarios (Table 6.1

and Figures 6.1 and 6.2).

ß All non-Arctic scenario spill indicators are greater than their Arctic counterparts.

Non-Arctic spill frequencies are approximately 40% greater; spill indices, 8%

greater for the non-Arctic scenarios (Table 6.1).

In addition, the unit Arctic oil spill frequencies for pipelines show a decrease with

increasing water depth. That is, pipeline failures per km- yr are highest for shallow water

and lowest for deep water. Thus, given the same size and length of pipeline in shallow

and deep water, the spill indicators for deep water pipelines would be lower than those

for shallow water pipelines. The opposite trend was observed to apply to platforms. No

water depth effect was introduced for wells.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.2

Table 6.1

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

Year

2016

Year

2019

Year

2024

Year

2020

Year

2020

Year

2010

Year

2010

Year

2010

SPILL INDICATORS

Spill Size

bbl x 1000

Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale All

Sale All

Non

Arctic

Base

Case

High

Case

High C

Non

Arctic

SM 9.97 10.17 9.84 29.98 43.90 37.66 70.18 95.17

L 4.53 4.42 4.07 13.02 17.83 15.23 25.34 36.70

H 2.39 2.34 2.21 6.93 8.31 7.68 14.38 17.85

Spill Frequency

per 103 years

All 16.88 16.93 16.12 49.93 70.04 60.58 109.91 149.72

SM 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.40 0.59 0.41 0.31 0.42

L 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.17 0.11 0.16

H 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.08

Spill Frequency

per 109 bbl

produced

All 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.67 0.94 0.66 0.48 0.66

SM 2 2 2 6 9 8 13 19

L 28 27 26 81 102 92 171 218

H 170 169 165 505 529 534 1150 1211

Spill Index [bbl]

(Product of spill frequency

and mean spill size)

All 200 199 193 592 640 633 1335 1448
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.3

Figure 6.1

Beaufort Sea ‘Sale All’ Spill Indicators – Year 2024

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

26%

60% 14%

SM L H

0.67

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

1%

14%

85%

SM L H

592

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

60%

26%

14%

SM L H 49.93
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.4

Figure 6.2

Chukchi Sea ‘High Case’ Spill Indicators – Year 2010

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000

64%

23%

13%

SM L H

109.9

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size X 1000

64%

23%

13%

SM L H

0.48

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill Size x 1000

1%

14%

85%

SM L H

1335
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.5

6.1.1.2 Facility Contributions to Spill Occurrence Indicators

How do the spill indicators vary by facility type for representative scenarios? The

contributions of spill indicators by facility have also been summarized for representative

scenario years. Figures 6.3 and 6.4 gives the relative component contributions, in

absolute value and percent, for each of the main facility types; namely, pipelines (P/L),

platforms, and wells. Platform spills do not include blowouts. Blowouts are the only spill

events categorized under well spills. The following may be noted from these figures:

ß For both the Beaufort and Chukchi scenarios, platforms contribute the most (50%

and 61% respectively) to the two spill frequency indicators, but the least (5% and

6% respectively) to the spill index (Figure 6.3 and 6.4).

ß Pipelines in the Beaufort scenarios are next in relative contribution to spill

frequencies (31%) and intermediate in contribution to spill index (10%) (Figure

6.3).

ß The relative contribution of pipelines to spill frequencies in the Chukchi,

however, are approximately the same (19%) as contributions of wells (20%)

(Figure 6.4).

ß Wells are by far the highest contributors to spill index in the Beaufort and

Chukchi Seas, at 85% and 89% respectively, while platforms and wells are each

responsible for 10% or less contribution to the spill index (Figures 6.3 and 6.4).

ß It can be concluded that platforms are likely to have the most, but smaller spills,

while wells will have the least number, but largest spills. Pipelines will be in

between, with a tendency towards more spills than wells, but less or about the

same number as platforms. Pipeline spill volumes will tend to be greater than (in

Beaufort) or similar in size (in Chukchi) to platform spills.

6.1.1.3 Projected Annual Variations of Spill Occurrence Indicators

How do spill indicators vary over the development life cycle? Figure 6.5 shows the

composite Beaufort Sea scenario annual variation in spill indicators over the expected

development lifetime. Generally, spill frequencies and the spill index can be seen to

follow the facility build-up and phase-out, as they are directly proportional to facility

quantities. Spill frequency per barrel produced, however, continues to rise beyond the

peak production year. The lack of fall of spills per billion barrels produced in years after

peak production is partially artificial. The development scenarios used by MMS in

environmental analyses (and used in this report) assume pipelines, platforms, and wells

are abandoned at a rate lower than the rate of decrease in production. This leads to the

artifact that as production goes to zero, spills per barrel produced increase to infinity. The

artifact disappears when spill rates are summed or normalized over the life of the fields.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.6

Figure 6.3

Beaufort Sea ‘Sale All’ Spill Indicators – Year 2024

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

50%

31%

19%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.67

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

10% 5%

85%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 592

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

31%

50%

19%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 49.93
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.7

Figure 6.4

Chukchi Sea ‘High Case’ Spill Indicators – Year 2010

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

19%

61% 20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 109.9

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

19%

61% 20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.48

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

6% 5%

89%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 1335
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.8

Figure 6.5

Beaufort Sea Composite Scenario Annual Variation

in Arctic and Non-Arctic Spill Occurrence Indicators

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Non Arctic

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.9

6.1.1.4 Spill Indicator Statistical Variance

The variance introduced into the spill occurrence indicators by the incorporation of Arctic

effects was numerically evaluated. Figure 6.6 shows typical distributions of the resulting

indicators, in this case for the Beaufort Sea composite (All Sales) scenario. The slope of

each line is an indicator of its variance. Specifically, it was found that for all spills the

standard deviation ranged from 12% to 15% of the mean, while the upper and lower

bound (95th percentile and 5th percentile, respectively) ranged from 20% to 30%, with the

smaller variances corresponding to the Beaufort Sea scenarios and the large ones to the

Chukchi Sea scenarios. Upper (95%) and lower (5%) bounds, however, varied as much as

20 to 50% and 20 to 35% of the mean. Since many of the variations in the Arctic inputs

ranged in excess of plus or minus 80% of the mean value, the relatively small variance of

the indicators suggest that the total model is quite robust; large variances in inputs cause

only small variances in outputs. However, this small variance relates only to the Arctic

effects; variance in historical spill size and frequency was considered to be zero. Thus,

the variances discussed here characterize the uncertainties associated with the Arctic

effects incorporated through the fault tree methodology in this study.

6.1.2 Conclusions on the Methodology and Its Applicability

An analytical tool for the prediction of oil spill occurrence indicators for systems without

history has been developed based on the utilization of fault tree methodology. Although

the results generated are voluminous, they are essentially transparent, simple, and easy to

understand. The analytical tool developed is also quite transparent, very efficient in terms

of computer time and input-output capability, and user friendly for users that are

generally familiar with the process. In addition, the basic model is setup so that any input

variables can be entered as distributions; the model presented in this study only uses

distributed values of the Arctic effect inputs.

A wealth of information that can be utilized for the optimal planning and regulation of

future developments is generated by the analytical tool. Key aspects of the analytical tool

capability may be summarized as follows:

ß Ability to generate expected and mean values as well as their variability in

rigorous numerical statistical format.

ß Use of verifiable input data based on MMS historical spill data and statistics.

ß Ability to independently vary the impacts of different causes on the spill

occurrences as well as add new causes such as some of those that may be

expected for the Arctic or other new environments.

ß Ability to generate spill occurrence indicator characteristics such as annual

variations, facility contributions, spill size distributions, and spill causes.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.10

Figure 6.6

Typical Spill Occurrence Indicator Variance Graphs

 Spill Frequency CDF All Sales Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All Spill Sizes

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF All sales Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl 

Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All spill Sizes

 Spill Index CDF Sale All Sales 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium

Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

All Spill Sizes
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.11

ß Ability to generate comparative spill occurrence indicators such as those of

comparable scenarios in more temperate regions. The model developed provides a

basis for estimating each Arctic effect’s importance through sensitivity analysis as

well as propagation of uncertainties.

ß Capability to quantify uncertainties rigorously, together with their measures of

variability.

6.2 Limitations of Methodology and Results

6.2.1 General Description of Limitations

During the work, a number of limitations in the input data, the scenarios, the application

of the fault tree methodology, and finally the oil spill occurrence indicators themselves

have been identified. These shortcomings are summarized in the following paragraphs.

6.2.2 Limitations of Input Data

Two categories of input data were used; namely the historical spill data and the Arctic

effect data. Although a verifiable and optimal historical spill data set has been used, the

following shortcomings may be noted:

ß Gulf of Mexico (OCS) historical data bases were provided by MMS and used

as a starting point for the fault tree analysis; however, some inconsistencies

were identified in these databases as discussed in Appendix A, Section A.2.4.

ß Only the historical spill frequency point value was utilized, since adequate

data were not provided to create distributions of these frequencies.

ß Several ranges of spill sizes were analyzed, but only the mean value of each

spill size range was used to characterize representative spill size for each

range. Spill size distribution data for each spill size range was available, but

was not used in the interest of restricting the uncertainties to the Arctic effects.

ß The assessment of the variability or statistical properties of the GOM

historical data is a significant study in itself, which is expected to be carried

out in the companion study being conducted in parallel with the present work

ß The Arctic effects include modifications in causes associated with the

historical data set as well as additions of spill causes unique to the Arctic

environment. Quantification of existing causes for Arctic effects was done in a

relative cursory way restricted to engineering judgement.

ß A reproducible but relatively elementary analysis of gouging and scour effects

was carried out.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.12

ß Upheaval buckling and thaw settlement effect assessments were included on

the basis of an educated guess; no engineering analysis was carried out for the

assessment of frequencies to be expected for these effects.

ß No Arctic effects were estimated for the wells, which were considered to

blowout with frequencies the same as those for the GOM.

6.2.3 Scenarios

The scenarios are those developed for use in the MMS Alaska OCS Region

Environmental Impact Statements for Oil and Gas Lease Sales. As estimated they appear

reasonable and were incorporated in the form provided. There are two possible

shortcomings of the scenarios as follows:

ß Distributed values for the key quantities were not provided, thus precluding

their incorporation as distributions in the Monte Carlo analysis.

ß The facility abandonment rate is significantly lower than the rate of decline in

production.

6.2.4 Fault Tree Methodology

Generally, the fault tree methodology was limited primarily by the shortcomings in input

data discussed above.

ß The primary method for assessing uncertainties was restricted to the fault tree

module, which incorporates the uncertainties or bounds assigned to the Arctic

effects. The treatment of uncertainties could be expanded to incorporate

distributions in volume of spills, and the original historical frequencies.

ß The treatment of uncertainties was carried out utilizing a Monte Carlo process,

which requires an add-in (called @Risk©) to the Excel spreadsheet within

which the algorithms have been programmed. For some users, this might be

slightly arcane; accordingly, it may be desirable to have two versions, the

Monte Carlo version which gives more rigorous results and is used for results

in the body of this report, and an expected value version, which may be

utilized for rough estimates. Appendix C gives the detailed results and

calculations for the Monte Carlo model; Appendix D gives those from the

expected value model.

ß The Monte Carlo results give higher oil spill occurrence indicators than the

expected value results. This is due to the skewness of the Arctic effect

distributed values, which are inputs to the Monte Carlo calculations.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.13

6.2.5 Limitations of Indicators Generated

The following comments can be made on limitations associated with the indicators that

have been generated.

ß The indicators have inherited the deficiencies in the input and scenario data

noted above. Indicators should be viewed primarily as trend indicators of the

expected values and their distributions for Arctic developments.

ß The indicator distribution shows relatively small variability – this is primarily

because the only variability introduced is that of the Arctic effects.

ß The model generating the indicators is fundamentally a linear model which

ignores the effects of scale, of time variations such as the learning and wearout curves (Bathtub curve), and production volume non-linear effects.

ß The expected value (simpler) calculation results (given in Appendix D) should

be used with caution since they underestimate the spill indicators. The

underestimation ranges from 3 to 76%. Appendix D gives all the expected

value calculations. The body of the report is based on the Monte Carlo results

given in Appendix C.

6.3 Recommendations

6.3.1 Recommendations on Direct Application of Results from This Study

The results of this study can be applied directly in two principal ways; namely, on an

annual per barrel produced basis, and on a total production volume basis.

On an annual basis, the peak production year oil spill frequency per barrel produced can

be used to calculate corresponding annual spill frequencies for other annual production

rate scenarios. This is done simply by multiplying the appropriate spill frequency per

billion barrels produced from Table 6.1 by the subject annual production rate.

To apply the results on a total production volume basis, the following steps can be used:

ß For the desired spill size range and facility component (or all facilities), add

together the annual spill frequencies for each year of the production life.

ß Divide the sum of the frequencies by the total production volume. This

provides the number of spills per barrel produced for the entire development.

ß For another development, multiply the above spills per barrel produced by the

other development’s total production volume.

ß The resultant is the expected number of spills of the desired spill size range

and for the desired facility component for the total production life of the other

development.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

6.14

6.3.2 General Recommendations

The following recommendations based on the work may be made:

ß Utilize the oil spill occurrence indicator model to generate additional model

validation information, including direct application to specific non-Arctic

scenarios, such as GOM projects, which have an oil spill statistical history.

ß Utilize the oil spill occurrence indicator model in a sensitivity mode to

identify the importance of different Arctic effect variables introduced to

provide a prioritized list of those items having the highest potential impact on

Arctic oil spills.

ß Use GOM historical data together with its measures of spill size variance and

setup the Monte Carlo model to run with these measures of spill size variance.

ß Generalize the model so that it can be run both in an expected value and a

distributed value (Monte Carlo) form with the intent that expected value form

can be utilized without the Monte Carlo add-in for preliminary estimates and

sensitivity analyses, while for more comprehensive rigorous studies, the

Monte Carlo version can be used. All calculations in this report are based on

the Monte Carlo version.

ß Finally, convert the current oil spill occurrence indicator model into a user

friendly software package, which can be used for the assessment of oil spill

occurrence indicators and their characteristics for any designated scenario.

The software package should include the following:

ß Modular structure

ß User manual

ß Online help

ß Password protected parameters and algorithms

ß Extensive graphical outputs
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM R.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

REFERENCES

1. Adams Pearson Associates Inc., "Recommended Philosophy for Development of a Worst

Case Blowout Scenario for Wells Drilled in the Beaufort Sea", Report for the Canadian

Petroleum Association, Beaufort Sea Steering Committee, Calgary, AB, March 1991.

2. AIChE, "Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis", Center for

Chemical Process Safety, NY, 1996.

3. Anderson, Cheryl McMahon, and Robert P. LaBelle, "Update of Comparative Occurrence

Rates for Offshore Oil Spills", Spill Science & Technology Bulletin, Vol. 6., No. 5/6, pp.

303-321, 2000.

4. Bercha F.G., "Special Problems in Pipeline Risk Assessment", Proceedings of IPC 2000,

International Pipeline Conference, Calgary, AB, October 1-5, 2000.

5. Bercha, F.G., A.C. Churcher, and M. Cerovšek, “Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue Modeling

for Frontier Offshore Installations”, Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, Texas,

USA, 2000.

6. Bercha, F.G., and M. Cerovšek, Large Arctic Offshore Project Risk Analysis” Proceeding

of Russian Arctic Offshore Conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, 1997.

7. Bercha, F.G., "Fault Trees for Everyday Risk Analysis", Proceedings of Canadian Society

for Chemical Engineering, Risk Analysis Seminar, Edmonton, 1990.

8. Bercha, F.G., and Associates (Alberta) Limited, "Ice Scour Methodology Study", Final

Report to Gulf Canada Resources, Calgary, AB, March 1986.

9. Bercha, F.G., “Application of Risk Analysis to Offshore Drilling and Risk Mitigation,”

Proceedings, Risk Analysis Seminar, Royal Commission of the Ocean Ranger Marine

Disaster, Toronto, 1984.

10. Bercha, F.G., "Probabilities of Blowouts in the Canadian Arctic", North Sea Offshore

Conference, Stavanger, Norway, 1978.

11. Bercha, F.G., and Associates Limited, “Probabilties of Blowouts in Canadian Arctic

Waters”, Final Report, Fisheries and Environment Canada, Report #EPS 3-EC-78-12,

October 1978.

12. Dahl, E., T.I. Bern, M. Galen, G. Engen, "Risk of Oil and Gas Blowouts on the Norwegian

Continental Shelf", Ship Research Institute of Norway, Offshore Testing and Research

Group, Trondheim, Norway, 1983.

13. Danenberger, E.P., "Outer Continental Shelf Drilling Blowouts, 1971-1991", 25th Annual

Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, TX, May 3-6, 1993.

14. Doelp, L.C., G.K. Lee, R.E Linney, and R.W. Ormsby, “Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis:

Gate-by-Gate Method”, in Plant/Operations Progress, 4(3) 227-238, 1984.

15. Energy Resources Conservation Board of Alberta, “GASRISK – A Model to Estimate Risk

to Public Safety for Uncontrolled Sour Gas Releases”, Volume 6, April 1990.

16. E&P Forum, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Data Sheet Directory, The Oil Industry
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM R.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

International Exploration and Production Forum, 25-28 Old Burlington Street, London,

1996.

17. Fairweather E&P Services, Inc., "Historical Blowout Study, North Slope, Alaska", Study

for BP-Amoco Exploration (Alaska), Anchorage, AK, June 2000.

18. Fussell, J.B., “How to Hand Calculate System Reliability and Safety Characteristics”, in

IEEE Transactions on Reliability, R-24(3), 169-174, 1975.

19. Gadd, P.E., G. Hearon, C.B. Leidersdorf, W.G. McDougal, J. Ellsworth, and D. Thomas,

"Slope Armor Design and Construction Northstar Production Island", in Proceedings,

Volume 1, 16th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic

Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

20. Goff, R., J. Hammond, and A.C. Nogueira, "Northstar Sub Sea Pipeline Design of

Metallurgy, Weldability, and Supporting Full Scale Bending Tests", in Proceedings,

Volume 1, 16th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic

Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

21. Gulf Canada, "Analysis of Accidents in Offshore Operations Where Hydrocarbons Were

Lost", Report by the Houston Technical Services Center of Gulf Research and

Development Company for Gulf Canada Resources, Inc., Calgary, AB, 1981.

22. Hart Crowser Inc., "Estimation of Oil Spill Risk From Alaska North Slope, Trans-Alaskan

Pipeline, and Arctic Canada Oil Spill Data Sets", OCS Study MMS 2000-007, Study for US

Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf

Region, Anchorage, AK, April 2000.

23. Henley, E.J., and H. Kumamoto, “Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment”, PrinticeHall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, (ISBN 0-13-772251-6), 1981.

24. Hnatiuk, J., and K.D. Brown, "Sea Bottom Scouring in the Canadian Beaufort Sea", 9th

Annual OTC, Houston, TX, May 2-5, 1983.

25. Holand, P., “Offshore Blowouts, Data for Risk Assessment”, OMAE 1995, American

Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1995.

26. Hoyland, A., and M. Rausand, “System Reliability Theory: Models and Statistical

Methods”, John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, 1994.

27. Hunt, D.M., K.R. McClusky, R. Shirley, and R. Spitzenberger, "Facility Engineering for

Arctic Conditions", in Proceedings, Volume 1, 16th International Conference on Port and

Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

28. Kato, S., and N.J. Adams, "Quantitative Assessment of Blowout Data as It Relates to

Pollution Potential", SPE 23289, First International Conference on Health, Safety and

Environment, the Netherlands, November 10-14, 1991.

29. Lanan, G.A., and J.O. Ennis, "Northstar Offshore Arctic Pipeline Project", in Proceedings,

Volume 1, 16th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic

Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

30. Leidersdorf, C.B., G.E. Hearon, R.C. Hollar, P.E. Gadd, and T.C. Sullivan, "Ice Gouge and

Strudel Scour Data for the Northstar Pipelines", in Proceedings, Volume 1, 16th
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM R.3 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC),

Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

31. Lowrance, W.W., "Of Acceptable Risk", Kaufmann Inc., 1976.

32. Masterson, D.M., A.B. Christopherson, and J.W. Pickering, "Sheet Pile Design for

Offshore Gravel Islands", in Proceedings, Volume 1, 16th International Conference on Port

and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17,

2001.

33. Miller, D.L., "Hypersaline Permafrost under a Lagoon of the Arctic Ocean", in

Proceedings, Volume 1, 16th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering

under Arctic Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

34. MMS (Minerals Management Service), "Accidents Associated with Oil and Gas

Operations: Outer Continental Shelf 1956-1990", OCS Report MMS 92-0058, 1992.

35. MMS (Minerals Management Service), "Federal Offshore Statistics: 1995. Leasing,

exploration, production and revenues to December 31, 1995", US Department of the

Interior, Mineral Management Service, Operations and Safety Management, OCS Report

MMS 97-0007, 1997.

36. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS

Region), "Alaska Outer Continental Shelf - Beaufort Sea Planning Area Oil and Gas Lease

Sale 144 - Final Environmental Impact Statement", Vol. II, OCS EIS/EA MMS 96-0012,

May 1996.

37. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS

Region), "Alaska Outer Continental Shelf - Beaufort Sea Planning Area Oil and Gas Lease

Sale 170 - Final Environmental Impact Statement", OCS EIS/EA MMS 98-0007, February

1998.

38. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS

Region), "Alaska Outer Continental Shelf - Chukchi Sea Oil & Gas Lease Sale 126 - Final

Environmental Impact Statement", Vol. II, OCS EIS/EA MMS 90-0095, Anchorage, AK,

January 1991.

39. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS

Region), "Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources, Alaska Federal Offshore", OCS

Monograph MMS 98-0054, Anchorage, AK, 1998.

40. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS

Region), "Investigation of Shell Offshore Inc., Hobbit Pipeline Leak Ship Shoal Block 281,

January 24, 1990, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Louisiana", OCS Report MMS 91-0025, New

Orleans, March 1991.

41. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS

Region), "Investigation of the Exxon Company USA Pipeline Leak /Eugene Island Block

314, May 6, 1990, Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Louisiana", OCS Report MMS 91-0066, New

Orleans, November 1991.

42. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS

Regional Office), "Investigation of Chevron Pipe Line Company Pipeline Leak, South Pass
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM R.4 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Block 38, September 29, 1998, Gulf of Mexico Off the Louisiana Coast", OCS Report

MMS 99-0053, New Orleans, September 1999.

43. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS

Regional Office), "Investigation of Shell Offshore Inc., Hobbit Pipeline Leak, Ship Shoal

Block 281, November 16, 1994, Gulf of Mexico, Off the Louisiana Coast", OCS Report

MMS 97-0031, New Orleans, August 1997.

44. MMS (US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS

Regional Office), "Investigation of Shell Pipe Line Corporation Pipeline Leak South Pass

Block 65 December 30, 1986, Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana Coast", OCS Report MMS

87-0114, December 1987.

45. Modarres, M., M. Kaminsky, and V. Krisvtsov, "Reliability Engineering and Risk

Analysis", Marcel Deker Inc., 1999.

46. O'Connor, M.J, and Associates Ltd., Preliminary Ice Keel/Seabed Interaction Study", Final

Report to GCRI, March 1984.

47. Offshore Technology Research Center, "Comparative Risk Analysis for Deepwater

Production Systems", Final Project Report for Minerals Management Service, January

2001.

48. OPL, “Field Development Concepts of the World”, 1990.

49. Owen, L., D. Blanchet, and P. Flones, "The Northstar Project - Year-Round Production in

the Alaskan Beaufort Sea", in Proceedings, Volume 1, 16th International Conference on

Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17,

2001.

50. Paulin, M.J., D. Nixon, G.A. Lanan, and B. McShane, "Environmental Loadings &

Geotechnical Considerations for the Northstar Offshore Pipelines", in Proceedings, Volume

1, 16th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions

(POAC), Ottawa, ON, August 12-17, 2001.

51. Roberts, N.H., W.E. Veseley, D.F. Haasl, and F.F. Goldberg, “Fault Tree Handbook”,

NUREG-0492, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 1985.

52. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., "Blowout and Spill Probability Assessment for the

Northstar and Liberty Oil Development Projects in the Alaska North Slope", Report to BP

Exploration (Alaska), Inc., November 1998.

53. Ross, S.L., c.W. Ross, F. Lepine, and K.E. Langtry, “Ixtoc I Oil Blowout”, Environment

Canada E.P.S. Spill Technology Newsletter, pp. 245-256, July-August 1979.

54. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., "Blowout and Spill Probability Assessment for the

Sable Offshore Energy Project", Report to Mobil Oil Canada Properties, November 1995.

55. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., "Contingency Plans to Monitor and Clean Up

Large Spills from SOEP Offshore Facilities", Prepared for Sable Offshore Energy Project,

Halifax, NS, March 31, 1998.

56. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., "Large Oil Spills and Blowouts from Exploration

Drilling on Georges Bank: An Analysis of their Probability, Behaviour, Control and
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM R.5 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Environmental Effects", Chevron Canada Resources and Texaco Canada Petroleum Inc.,

submitted to the Georges Bank Review Panel, January 1999.

57. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., "Oil Spills Associated with the Terra Nova

Development Project off Newfoundland: Risk Assessment; Spill Fate, Behaviour and

Impact; Countermeasures; and Contingency Planning", Report to Petro-Canada Inc.,

December 1996.

58. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., "Panuke/Cohasset Field Development Project:

Risk, Behaviour and Effects of Oil Spills", Report to IONA Resources Ltd. and Nova

Scotia Resources Ltd., July 1989.

59. ScanPower A.S., "Blowout Frequency Assessment of Northstar", Report to BP Exploration

(Alaska), Report No. 27.83.01/R1, Kjeller, Norway, July 2, 2001.

60. Sefton, A.D., “The Development of the U.K. Safety Case Regime: A Shift in Responsibility

from Government to Industry”, Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, USA, 1994.

61. Shared Services Drilling, "A Review of Alaska North Slope Blowouts, 1974-1997", June

30, 1998.

62. Sharples, B.P.M., J.J. Stiff, D.W. Kalinowski and W.G. Tidmarsh, "Statistical Risk

Methodology: Application for Pollution Risks from Canadian Georges Bank Drilling

Program", 21st Annual Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, TX, May 1-4, 1989.

63. Southwest Research Institute, "New Methods for Rapid Leak Detection in Offshore

Pipelines", Final Report to Minerals management Service, US Department of the Interior,

SwRI Project No. 04-4558, April 1992.

64. System Safety and Reliability Committee, Santa Barbara County, Energy Division, “Risk

Matrix Guidelines”, 1998.

65. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "Reactor Safety Study", WASH-1400, NUREG75/014, Appendix I – IV, October 1975.

66. Upstream Technology Group, "Analysis of Strudel Scours and Ice Gouges for the Liberty

Development Pipeline", Final Draft, no date.

67. Weeks, W.F., P.W. Barnes, D.M. Rearic, and E. Reimnitz, "Some Probabilistic Aspects of

Ice Gouging on the Alaskan Shelf of the Beaufort Sea", US Army Cold Regions Research

and Engineering Laboratory, June 7, 1983.

68. Weeks, W.F., P.W. Barnes, D.M. Rearic, and E. Reimnitz, "Statistical Aspects of Ice

Gouging on the Alaskan Shelf of the Beaufort Sea", US Army Cold Regions Research and

Engineering Laboratory, 1982.

69. Wylie, W.W., and A.B. Visram, "Drilling Kick Statistics", Proceedings, IADC/SPE

Drilling Conference, Houston, TX, February 27-March 2, 1980.
OCS Study MMS 2002-047

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME II

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas – Fault Tree Method

MMS Contract Number 01-00-PO-17199

August, 2002

By

Bercha International Inc.

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

 U.S. Department of the Interior

 Minerals Management Service

 Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region 

 
OCS Study MMS 2002-047

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME II

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas – Fault Tree Method

MMS Contract Number 01-00-PO-17199

August, 2002

Principal Investigator: Dr. Frank G. Bercha, P.Eng.

Bercha International Inc.

2926 Parkdale Boulevard N.W.

Calgary, Alberta, T2N 3S9, Canada

Email: bgroup@berchagroup.com

ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF SPONSORSHIP

This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service

(MMS), Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, under Contract No.

01-00-PO-17199, as part of the MMS Alaska Environmental Studies Program.

DISCLAIMER

The opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report or product are

those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior,

nor does mention of products constitute endorsement or recommendations for use by the Federal

Government. 
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

VOLUME II - APPENDICES

APPENDIX PAGE

A Historical Data

Table of Contents ...................................................................................................... A.i

B Future Development Scenarios

Table of Contents ......................................................................................................B.i

C Monte Carlo Calculations

Table of Contents ......................................................................................................C.i

D Expected Value Calculations

Table of Contents ......................................................................................................D.i
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.i

APPENDIX A

HISTORICAL DATA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

Table of Contents.............................................................................................................. A.i

List of Tables ..................................................................................................................A.iii

A.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................A.1.1

A.1.1 General Introduction.........................................................................................A.1.1

A.1.2 Summary of Data Files.....................................................................................A.1.1

A.1.2.1 GOM Pipeline Analysis.........................................................................A.1.1

A.1.2.2 GOM Platform-based Spills ..................................................................A.1.3

A.1.2.3 E&P Forum Pipeline Analysis ..............................................................A.1.3

A.1.2.4 Crude Oil Tanker Summary...................................................................A.1.3

A.1.2.5 Offloading Spill Rates............................................................................A.1.3

A.1.2.6 Above Ground Storage Tanks (ASTs)....................................................A.1.3

A.1.2.7 Gas and Oil Blowouts............................................................................A.1.3

A.2 Pipeline Spills in the OCS of the GOM: Analysis for 1972-1999

and 1985-1999..................................................................................................A.2.1

A.2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................A.2.1

A.2.2 Exposure to Risk...............................................................................................A.2.1

A.2.3 Pipeline Spill Statistics.....................................................................................A.2.5

A.2.4 Deficiencies in MMS Pipeline Databases.........................................................A.2.5

A.3 Platform Spills in the OCS and the GOM: Analysis for 1972-1999

and 1985-1999..................................................................................................A.3.1

A.3.1 Introduction on Platform Spills ........................................................................A.3.1

A.3.2 Exposure to Risk...............................................................................................A.3.1

A.3.3 Platform Spill Statistics ....................................................................................A.3.1

A.4 North Sea Pipeline Data .................................................................................A.4.1

A.4.1 Risers and Pipeline in Platform Safety Zone ....................................................A.4.1

A.4.2 Pipeline Failure Frequencies for Different Conditions.....................................A.4.2

A.5 Crude Oil Tanker Spills .................................................................................A.5.1

A.6 Offloading Spill Rates....................................................................................A.6.1

A.7 Summary of Above Ground Storage Tank (AST) Spill Statistics..............A.7.1

A.8 Gas Blowouts ..................................................................................................A.8.1

A.9 Blowouts with Oil............................................................................................A.9.1
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.ii

A.10 Oil Tanker Spills...........................................................................................A.10.1

A.11 Spills During Tanker Loadings at Offshore Platforms .............................A.11.1

A.11.1 Introduction ................................................................................................A.11.1

A.11.2 Experience in the U.K. Sector of the North Sea .............................................A.11.1

A.11.3 Experience during 1976-1979 as Reported in Gulf 1981 ...............................A.11.1

A.11.4 Experience during 1975-1993 as Reported by E&P Forum 1996 ..................A.11.1

A.11.5 Statoil Experience in the North Sea, 1979-1995.............................................A.11.3

A.11.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................A.11.3

References ................................................................................................. A.R.1
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.iii

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

A.1.1 North Sea and Gulf of Mexico Data Summary.................................................A.1.2

A.2.1 GOM Pipeline Exposure Data (1948-2001).....................................................A.2.2

A.2.2 GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Statistics (1972-1999).............................................A.2.6

A.2.3 GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Statistics (1985-1999).............................................A.2.7

A.2.4 Cause Distribution of Pipeline Spills, GOM OCS (1972-1999).......................A.2.8

A.3.1 Platform Spills – Exposure to Risk...................................................................A.3.2

A.3.2 Platform Spills Statistics (1972-1999)..............................................................A.3.2

A.4.1 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Risers..............................A.4.1

A.4.2 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Risers and pipelines

damaged by anchoring and impact incidents in the platform safety zone

(within 500 m of platform) ...............................................................................A.4.1

A.4.3 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Risers and pipelines

damaged by anchoring and impact incidents in the subsea well safety zone

(within 500 m of subsea platform)....................................................................A.4.1

A.4.4 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Pipelines damaged by

anchoring and impact incidents in the mid-line of pipelines............................A.4.2

A.4.5 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Pipelines damaged by

corrosion and material defects for pipelines less than 2 km in length..............A.4.2

A.4.6 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Pipelines damaged by

corrosion and material defects for pipelines 2 to 5 km in length......................A.4.2

A.4.7 North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km- yrs) for Pipelines damaged by

corrosion and material defects for pipelines greater than 5 km in length.........A.4.3

A.5.1 Crude Oil Tanker Spills of Various Sizes and Locations .................................A.5.1

A.6.1 Spills from Offshore Platforms Lifting Crude Oil to Tankers..........................A.6.1

A.7.1 Summary of AST Statistics...............................................................................A.7.1

A.7.2 Number of ASTs by Capacity Range, Production, bbl.....................................A.7.1

A.7.3 Production AST Release Frequency Distribution.............................................A.7.1

A.7.4 Frequencies for all ASTs – No Spill Sizes Given.............................................A.7.1

A.8.1 Gas Blowouts Statistical Summary...................................................................A.8.1

A.9.1 Oil Blowouts Statistical Summary....................................................................A.9.1

A.10.1 Crude Oil Tanker Spills of Various Sizes and Locations ...............................A.10.1

A.11.1 Pollution Incidents – UK Offshore Loading 1975-93 (non-CALM systems).........A.11.2
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.1.1

A.1 INTRODUCTION

A.1.1 General Introduction

Historical data and its statistical analysis are used as a starting point for the fault tree

application to oil spill indicator quantification. In the present application only data on

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) pipelines, platforms, and oil well spills are considered. The data

utilized in this study and their analysis for the purposes of the fault tree application are

summarized in Chapter 2 of Volume I of the Final Report. However, as part of Task 1 of

the scope of work, a broader spectrum of oil spill data (including North Sea and tanker

spill data) was assimilated and analyzed; the results of this data processing are reported in

this Appendix A. The work described in this Appendix was substantially carried out and

reported by S.L. Ross Environmental Research.

A.1.2 Summary of Data Files

The file names that follow refer to the files on the CD [11].

A.1.2.1GOM Pipeline Analysis Files on CD: Original Data, DatedOilPPL.xls,

GreaterThan5Obbl.xls, Pipeline Spills in the OCS of the GOM.doc

The first section is the analysis and report for the GOM pipeline work. This may be the

most important part of the study inasmuch as pipeline spills are of significant interest on

the Slope. The section contains a breakdown of pipeline spills in terms of pipe diameter,

pipeline length, water depth, spill size, exposure period (1972 to 1999, and 1985 to

1999), and cause of accident. The work was restricted to pipelines carrying oil to

correspond to the focus on oil spills.

It was not possible to complete a similar analysis for the North Sea situation because of

lack of raw data. The main data available are those from E&P Forum 1996. This study

contained some errors and lacked in crucial information (such as spill size and type [oil

or gas] data). In any case, the data from E&P is summarized in the next section along

with other spill-type data. It is difficult to compare the GOM statistics to the North Sea

(NS) statistics shown in E&P Forum 1996 because breakdowns are different. The

following, however, shows that both studies produce frequencies in the same order of

magnitude.

Table A.1.1 summarizes the exposure factors and very high level results form the NS and

GOM data.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.1.2

Table A.1.1

North Sea and Gulf of Mexico Data Summary

AREA

TOTAL RISER

AND PIPELINE

EXPERIENCE

(km-yrs)

NUMBER

OF

SPILLS

FREQUENCY

(per 10,000 km-yrs) COMMENTS

North Sea

(NS) 130,000 48 gasand oil 3.7 (gas and oil)

No spill sizes provided,

but probably < 50 bbl

included.

Gulf of Mexico

(GOM) 254,000 31 oil 1.3 (oil only) For spills > 50 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.1.3

Considering that the North Sea data probably includes spills less than 50 bbl, the numbers

may well compare favorably.

It should be pointed out that over the course of the analysis, it was noticed there is some

discrepancy between the spills reported in the pipeline masters file provided to Bercha by

MMS and the spills reported in the “events” database that Cheryl Anderson of MMS uses

to calculate pipeline frequencies for the Gulf. The analysis presented here is based

entirely on the pipeline masters database from MMS Alaska [11].

A.1.2.2GOM Platform-based Spills (PlatformSpills.xls, Platform Spills in the OCS of

the GOM.doc

This two-page report summarizes data from MMS (Cheryl Anderson) on spills that have

taken place on the platforms, including blowouts, storage tank ruptures, and other causes

and sources.

A.1.2.3E&P Forum Pipeline Analysis (Summary of Spill Frequency Statistics_no

GOMpipelines.xls)

This is simply a copy of the statistics in the publication [6].

A.1.2.4Crude Oil Tanker Summary

This is based on Anderson and LaBelle, 1994 [2] and 2001, and on various SL Ross

analyses [13, 15, 18]. See section 9 below for a SL Ross internal report, which discusses

the derivation of the statistics. This report has not been updated in view of the new, inpress Anderson and LaBelle 2001 study, but the table in the xls file was updated.

A.1.2.5Offloading Spill Rates

These are taken from MMS 1997 [10] and the SL Ross report [13, 15].

A.1.2.6Above Ground Storage Tanks (AST)

The data from E&P Forum does not have spill sizes, so original data was analyzed from

IOSR annual summaries and the results and raw data are in the worksheets.

A.1.2.7Gas and Oil Blowouts

Blowouts are covered extensively in E&P Forum and in the SL Ross study for BP

Exploration Alaska [17]. The two sheets here cover the basics. The E&P Forum analysis

seems detailed and complete. Again, spill sizes are not provided in the E&P Forum

analysis, but they are in the sheets provided here.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.2 PIPELINE SPILLS IN THE OCS OF THE GOM:

ANALYSIS FOR 1972-1999 AND 1985-1999

A.2.1 Introduction

This chapter describes the steps taken in analyzing the historic risk of pipeline oil spills

of size 50 bbls and greater.

The data for the analysis comes from two sources: the PPL_MASTERS database

describing pipeline built and abandoned since 1948, published monthly (Mar 15, 2001

version used) on the MMS website at:

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/pubinfo/freeasci/pipeline/zipped/fixed/PipelineMastersFixeddfn.html

[8] and the PPL_REPAIRS database, received from MMS on a CD labeled: US DOI,

MMS Leaks Database (Copy – Feb 26/01) [11].

Note that Anderson and LaBelle [2] use a different list that contains 4 or 5 >100bbl spills

not contained in PPL_REPAIRS and that PPL_REPAIRS has a similar number of spills

not contained in A&B’s OCSPIPE.xls.

A.2.2 Exposure to Risk

PPL_MASTERS is a database of ALL pipeline constructed in the GOM, containing

details that are not needed for this current study. For our purposes, a report was generated

from the database containing only records for "BLKO" Or "BLOH" Or "BO/H" Or

"BO/S" Or "C/S" Or "COND" Or "OILH" Or "G/O" Or "GC/S" Or "OIL" Or "O/W" Or

"G/C" pipeline, any pipeline used for Condensate or Oil. Fields relating to date, size,

Federal length and water depth were retained. Table 2.1 summarizes the results of this

compilation.

The dates included are the Static Test Date, Construction Date, Date of Application and

Date Marked Abandoned. Many records did not contain all or, in fact, any dates. For

purposes of analysis the Build Date was taken to be the Static Test Date OR Construction

Date OR Date of Application, in that order. About 1,000km out of the total of about

20,000km of pipeline had no Build Date. The undated pipeline was distributed equally

over the 53 years of built totals for use in the estimation of exposure.

Pipeline exposure was accumulated over two date ranges: 1972-1999 and 1985-1999 in

order to match some other existing analyses. Exposure was accumulated for three

different aspects of pipeline segments: Depth ranges, Diameter ranges and Length ranges.

Where a pipeline segment record shows a Date Marked Abandoned, the segment was

removed from that year’s total of pipeline. The work and results can be found in

DatedOilPPL.xls. The result sheets are shown here as Table A.2.1.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Exposure to Risk by Depth of Pipeline in OCS

PPL Masters: Mar 15, 2001

Pipeline Built by Size (km)

Add about 2% of Undated to

each year (1/53 years)

PPL Masters: Mar 15, 2001

Abandoned by Size (km)

Pipe Size Exposure

Net Pipe

 (Built - Abandoned)

 Cumulative,

1972 - 1999 Exposure, 1972 - 1999 Exposure, 1985 - 1999

Date

Less than

10m

10m and

Greater

Grand

Total

Less than

10m

10m and

Greater

Grand

Total

Less than

10m

10m and

greater

Grand

Total

Less than

10m

10m and

greater

Less than

10m

10m and

greater

Less than

10m

10m and

greater

All

Depths

(km-year

1972 -

1999)

Less than

10m

10m and

greater

All

Depths

(km-year

1985 -

1999)

ADD 13.2 ADD 6.0

Undated 700 318 1019

1948 - 1971 1940 441 2381 2125 525 2650 2117 525 2117 525

1970 - 1971 8 8

1972 372 44 416 385 50 435 385 50 2502 575 2502 575

1973 294 11 305 307 17 324 1 1 306 17 2808 592 5309 1167

1974 188 6 195 202 12 214 202 12 3009 604 8318 1772

1975 175 163 339 189 169 358 189 169 3198 774 11516 2545

1976 487 20 507 500 26 526 500 26 3698 800 15214 3345

1977 315 39 354 328 45 373 328 45 4026 845 19240 4190

1978 589 48 637 602 54 657 602 54 4628 899 23868 5089

1979 310 10 320 323 16 339 0 0 323 16 4951 915 28819 6004

1980 189 134 324 203 140 343 0 0 202 140 5154 1055 33972 7059

1981 303 186 489 316 192 508 5 5 311 192 5465 1247 39437 8306

1982 151 230 381 164 236 400 0 2 2 164 234 5629 1481 45066 9787

1983 91 328 419 105 334 439 5 5 99 334 5728 1815 50794 11603

1984 149 300 450 163 306 469 1 1 162 306 5890 2122 56683 13724

1985 123 283 406 136 289 425 11 11 136 278 6026 2399 62709 16124 6026 2399

1986 97 269 366 110 275 385 2 2 109 275 6135 2674 68844 18798 12160 5074

1987 113 267 380 126 273 399 126 273 6261 2948 75104 21746 18421 8022

1988 115 476 591 128 482 610 2 2 125 482 6386 3430 81490 25176 24807 11452

1989 174 489 663 187 495 682 6 6 181 495 6567 3925 88057 29101 31373 15377

1990 293 495 789 307 501 808 7 2 9 300 499 6866 4424 94923 33526 38240 19801

1991 135 346 482 148 352 501 36 0 36 113 352 6979 4777 101902 38302 45219 24578

1992 106 269 375 119 275 394 4 11 15 115 265 7094 5041 108997 43344 52313 29619

1993 39 233 272 52 239 291 13 0 14 39 239 7133 5280 116129 48624 59446 34900

1994 146 657 802 159 663 821 26 15 41 133 648 7266 5928 123395 54552 66712 40828

1995 67 581 648 80 587 667 41 11 53 39 575 7305 6504 130700 61056 74016 47331

1996 391 948 1339 405 954 1358 53 140 193 352 814 7656 7317 138356 68373 81672 54649

1997 163 814 978 177 820 997 56 48 104 121 772 7777 8089 146133 76462 89449 62738

1998 153 775 928 166 781 947 34 43 77 132 738 7909 8827 154041 85290 97358 71565

1999 63 585 648 76 591 667 61 67 127 16 524 7924 9351 161966 94641 256607 105283 80917 186199

2000 67 841 908 80 847 927 70 19 89 10 828

2001 29 119 147 42 125 166 2 9 11 40 116

Grand Total 10636 8068 18704 8408 10675 19082 434 379 814 7974 10295

Net Pipe 18269

Table A.2.1

GOM Pipeline Exposure Data (1948-2001)

(a) Exposure to Risk by Depth of Pipeline in OCS
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.3 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Exposure to Risk by Size of Pipeline in OCS

PPL Masters: Mar 15, 2001 Pipeline

Built by Size (km)

Add about 2% of Undated to each

year (1/53 years)

PPL Masters: Mar 15, 2001

Abandoned by Size (km)

Pipe Size Exposure Net

Pipe (Built - Abandoned) Cumulative, 1972 - 1999 Exposure, 1972 - 1999 Exposure, 1985 - 1999

Date

Less

than

10"

10" and

Greater

Unknown

Size

Code

Grand

Total

Less

than

10"

10" and

Greater

Unknown

Size Code

Grand

Total

Less

than

10"

10" and

greater

Unknown

Size code

Grand

Total

Less than

10"

10" and

greater

Less

than

10"

10" and

greater Uncoded

Less

than

10"

10" and

greater

All Diameters

(km-year 1972 -

1999)

Less

than

10"

10"

and

greater

All Diameters

(km-year 1985

- 1999)

ADD

16.0

ADD

3.2

ADD 0.01

Undated 848 170 1 1019

1948 - 1971 1129 1220 32 2381 1353 1265 32 2650 1345 1265 1345 1265

1970 - 1971 8 8

1972 321 89 6 416 337 93 6 435 337 93 1682 1357 1682 1357

1973 141 164 305 157 167 0 324 1 1 156 167 1838 1524 3520 2881

1974 156 35 4 195 172 38 4 214 172 38 2010 1562 5531 4443

1975 141 186 12 339 157 189 12 358 157 189 2167 1751 7698 6194

1976 178 326 2 507 194 329 2 526 194 329 2362 2080 10060 8274

1977 134 216 4 354 150 219 4 373 150 219 2512 2299 12572 10574

1978 223 415 637 239 418 0 657 239 418 2751 2717 15323 13291

1979 218 99 3 320 234 102 3 339 0 0 234 102 2985 2819 18308 16110

1980 202 119 3 324 218 122 3 343 0 0 218 122 3202 2941 21510 19051

1981 339 150 489 355 153 0 508 5 5 355 149 3557 3090 25068 22141

1982 265 116 381 281 119 0 400 2 2 279 119 3836 3209 28904 25350

1983 267 131 22 419 283 134 22 439 5 5 277 134 4114 3343 33017 28693

1984 356 93 1 450 372 96 1 469 1 1 371 96 4485 3439 37502 32132

1985 327 75 4 406 343 78 4 425 11 11 332 78 4817 3517 42319 35648 4817 3517

1986 165 187 14 366 181 190 14 385 2 2 180 190 4996 3707 47315 39355 9813 7223

1987 229 151 0 380 245 154 0 399 245 154 5241 3861 52557 43216 15055 11084

1988 304 286 0 591 320 289 0 610 2 2 318 289 5559 4150 58116 47366 20614 15234

1989 277 364 21 663 293 367 21 682 6 6 288 367 5847 4517 63963 51883 26461 19752

1990 509 279 1 789 525 282 1 808 9 9 516 282 6363 4799 70326 56682 32824 24551

1991 434 44 4 482 450 47 4 501 18 18 36 432 30 6795 4829 77120 61511 39618 29379

1992 313 57 5 375 329 60 5 394 15 15 314 60 7109 4889 84229 66400 46727 34268

1993 190 81 2 272 206 84 2 291 13 0 14 192 83 7301 4972 91530 71372 54028 39240

1994 428 372 2 802 444 375 2 821 40 1 41 403 375 7705 5347 99235 76719 61733 44587

1995 375 272 648 391 276 0 667 46 6 53 345 269 8050 5616 107285 82335 69782 50204

1996 519 821 1339 535 824 0 1358 128 65 193 407 758 8457 6375 115741 88710 78239 56578

1997 351 627 978 367 630 0 997 98 4 2 104 268 626 8725 7001 124466 95711 86964 63580

1998 385 540 3 928 401 543 3 947 74 4 77 328 539 9053 7540 133519 103251 96017 71120

1999 419 229 648 435 232 0 667 114 12 1 127 321 220 9373 7760 142892 111011 253903 105390 78879 184269

2000 361 141 406 908 377 144 406 927 79 11 89 298 133

2001 130 17 147 146 20 0 166 2 9 11 144 11

Grand Total 10636 8068 552 19255 10492 8039 552 19082 676 135 3 814 9816 7904

Uncoded

Built 519

Abandoned -3

Table A.2.1

GOM Pipeline Exposure Data (1948-2001)

(b) Exposure to Risk by Size of Pipeline in OCS
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.4 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Exposure to Risk by Length of Pipeline in OCS

PPL Masters: Mar 15, 2001

Pipeline Built by Size (km)

Add about 2% of Undated to each

year (1/53 years)

PPL Masters: Mar 15, 2001

Abandoned by Size (km)

Pipe Size Exposure Net Pipe

(Built - Abandoned) Cumulative, 1972 - 1999 Exposure, 1972 - 1999 Exposure, 1985 - 1999

Date

< 0.5

km

0.5 -

2 km

2 - 5

km > 5 km Grand

Total

< 0.5

km

0.5 -

2 km

2 - 5

km

> 5

km

Grand

Total

< 0.5

km

0.5 -

2 km

2 - 5

km

> 5

km

Grand

Total

< 0.5

km

0.5 -

2 km

2 - 5

km > 5 km < 0.5

km

0.5 -

2 km

2 - 5

km > 5 km < 0.5

km

0.5 - 2

km 2 - 5 km > 5 km All

Lengths

< 0.5

km

0.5 - 2

km 2 - 5 km > 5 km All

Lengths

ADD

1.3

ADD

7.4

ADD

3.6

ADD

6.8

Undated 71 394 191 362 1019

1948-1971 14 209 280 1878 2381 33 313 331 1973 2304 31 313 324 1973 31 313 324 1973

1970-1971 2 6 8

1972 6 47 72 291 416 7 54 76 298 373 7 54 76 298 38 367 400 2271 38 367 400 2271

1973 3 36 34 232 305 5 43 38 239 276 1 1 3 43 38 239 42 410 438 2510 80 778 838 4781

1974 1 12 20 162 195 2 19 23 169 192 2 19 23 169 44 430 461 2679 124 1208 1299 7459

1975 1 20 24 294 339 2 27 27 301 328 2 27 27 301 46 457 488 2980 170 1665 1787 10439

1976 4 38 59 407 507 5 45 62 414 476 5 45 62 414 51 502 551 3394 222 2167 2338 13833

1977 3 31 52 269 354 4 38 55 276 331 4 38 55 276 55 540 606 3669 277 2707 2944 17502

1978 2 33 35 567 637 4 41 38 574 612 4 41 38 574 59 581 644 4243 336 3288 3588 21745

1979 4 48 60 208 320 5 56 63 215 278 0 5 56 63 215 64 637 708 4458 400 3924 4296 26203

1980 4 22 76 222 324 5 29 79 229 308 0 5 29 79 229 69 666 787 4687 469 4590 5082 30890

1981 5 35 87 363 489 6 42 90 370 460 5 5 6 37 90 370 75 703 877 5057 544 5294 5960 35947

1982 4 45 73 259 381 5 52 77 266 343 2 2 5 5 50 77 264 80 753 954 5321 624 6047 6913 41268

1983 4 51 64 301 419 5 58 68 308 375 5 5 5 58 62 308 85 811 1016 5629 709 6858 7929 46897

1984 4 67 97 282 450 5 75 100 289 389 1 1 5 75 100 289 90 886 1117 5917 799 7744 9046 52814

1985 7 54 127 218 406 9 61 130 225 356 11 11 23 9 61 119 214 98 947 1235 6131 897 8691 10281 58945 98 947 1235 6131

1986 3 23 29 312 366 4 30 32 319 351 2 2 3 30 32 319 101 977 1268 6450 999 9668 11549 65395 200 1924 2503 12581

1987 4 27 63 286 380 5 35 67 293 360 5 35 67 293 106 1012 1335 6742 1105 10679 12884 72137 306 2935 3838 19323

1988 5 32 70 484 591 6 40 73 491 564 2 2 6 37 73 491 112 1049 1408 7233 1217 11728 14292 79371 419 3984 5246 26557

1989 5 35 90 532 663 7 42 94 539 633 5 6 2 42 94 539 114 1091 1502 7773 1332 12819 15794 87143 533 5075 6748 34329

1990 3 34 130 621 789 5 41 134 628 762 1 2 6 2 11 4 39 128 626 118 1130 1629 8399 1450 13949 17423 95542 651 6205 8377 42728

1991 1 39 104 338 482 3 46 107 344 452 5 29 0 36 -2 46 78 344 116 1176 1707 8743 1566 15126 19130 104285 767 7382 10084 51471

1992 2 15 87 271 375 4 22 90 278 369 1 6 6 11 25 2 16 84 268 118 1192 1792 9011 1684 16318 20922 113296 886 8574 11876 60482

1993 2 36 67 167 272 4 43 70 174 245 1 3 8 0 14 3 40 63 174 121 1232 1854 9185 1806 17549 22776 122481 1007 9805 13730 69667

1994 2 49 142 609 802 3 56 146 616 762 13 16 9 15 56 -10 40 138 601 112 1271 1992 9786 1917 18820 24768 132267 1119 11076 15722 79453

1995 4 29 117 499 648 5 36 120 506 626 11 15 24 11 64 -6 21 96 495 105 1292 2088 10281 2023 20113 26856 142548 1224 12369 17810 89734

1996 3 47 85 1205 1339 4 54 88 1211 1300 10 35 143 140 333 -6 20 -55 1071 99 1312 2033 11352 2122 21425 28889 153900 1323 13681 19843 101086

1997 4 44 112 817 978 6 51 116 824 940 15 36 51 48 153 -10 15 65 775 90 1327 2098 12127 2212 22752 30987 166028 1413 15008 21941 113213

1998 5 37 90 797 928 6 45 93 803 897 14 11 52 43 121 -8 34 42 760 82 1361 2140 12888 2294 24113 33127 178915 1495 16369 24081 126101

1999 2 33 85 527 648 4 41 89 534 623 20 30 77 67 194 -16 11 12 467 66 1371 2152 13355 2359 25484 35279 192270 1561 17740 26233 139456

2000 4 46 84 774 908 5 53 88 781 869 17 25 45 19 109 -12 28 43 762

2001 0 2 10 135 147 1 10 14 142 155 2 9 9 20 1 7 5 133

Grand

Total 185 1666 2714 14690 19255 173 1599 2681 14629 19082 118 192 481 379 1193 55 1407 2201 14249 255393 165689

Net Pipe 17912 km-year km-year

Table A.2.1

GOM Pipeline Exposure Data (1948-2001)

(c) Exposure to Risk by Length of Pipeline in OCS
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.5 Final Report – P2010

MMS 09/10/02

A.2.3 Pipeline Spill Statistics

The PPL_Repairs database contains records of all spills from pipeline in the GOM. A

report was generated from the database for OIL and CONDENSATE spills of 50bbl or

larger size in the date range of Jan 1, 1972 to Dec 31, 1999. There were 31 spills that

satisfied those criteria.

Those spills were further broken down, for the two date ranges, into volume ranges,

pipeline diameter ranges, pipeline segment length ranges, pipeline segment depth ranges

and by cause.

The work and results can be found in GreaterThan50BBL.xls. The result sheets are

included here as follows:

ß Table A.2.2 – GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Statistics (1972-1999)

ß Table A.2.3 – GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Statistics (1985-1999)

ß Table A.2.4 – Cause Distribution of Pipeline Spills, GOM OCS (1972-1999)

A.2.4 Deficiencies in MMS Pipeline Databases

Several reviews of MMS databases were initiated as a result of the database applications

in the current project. Detailed discussion and information exchanges were conducted

among MMS personnel and members of the Bercha consulting team in regard to possible

inconsistencies, ambiguities, and errors in the databases. The following specific areas

were identified as ones of possible deficiency in the MMS pipeline databases:

ß Inadequate definition or application of pipeline product codes.

ß Lack of clarity of pipeline segment definitions.

ß Lack of clarity or ambiguity of information on pipeline lengths.

ß Ambiguity on exposure categories of pipeline size, pipeline length, and water

depth.

ß Ambiguity of spill records, resulting in at least one potential additional spill,

and possible ambiguities on spill sizes for other spills.

As it was not within the scope of work of the present study to rectify these deficiencies,

the present report is restricted to the above references to them. It should be noted,

however, that the rectification of these deficiencies is not expected to change the

conclusions of the study, although some adjustments in the numerical results could occur

without any significant impact on the trends predicted.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.6 Final Report – P2010

MMS 09/10/02

Table A.2.2

GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Statistics (1972-1999)

Spill Statistics**

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills,

Categorized 1972-99 Number

of Spills

Average

Volume

(bbl)

Median

Volume

(bbl)

Exposure

(km-years)

Frequency

(spill per

104 km-yr)

<10" 16 2141 173 142,892 1.1197

By Pipe Diameter =10" 15 4070 1211 111,011 1.3512

Bad Depth Data* 14

By Pipeline Minimum Depth < 10 m 6 2310 1211 161,966 0.3704

= 10 m 11 3165 1040 94,641 1.1623

< 0.5 km 0 0 0 2,359 0.0000

= 0.5 < 2 km 2 2335 2335 25,484 0.7848

= 2 < 5 km 7 820 100 35,279 1.9842 By Segment Length

= 5 km 22 3859 850 192,270 1.1442

Small 6 58 50 253,903 0.2363

Medium 12 317 230 253,903 0.4726

Large 10 4133 4267 253,903 0.3939 By Spill Size***

Huge 3 16611 15576 253,903 0.1182

By Diameter, By Spill Size

Small 4 58 50 142,892 0.2799

Medium 7 266 135 142,892 0.4899

Large 4 4436 4551 142,892 0.2799

<10"

Huge 1 14423 14423 142,892 0.0700

Small 2 58 58 111,011 0.1802

Medium 5 387 312 111,011 0.4504

Large 6 3932 3600 111,011 0.5405 = 10"

Huge 2 17705 17705 111,011 0.1802

* 14 of the 31 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to “0”.

** Exposure comes from an analysis of PPL_MASTERS database as published on February 15, 2001.

*** Spill Size:

ß Small (S) - = 50 < 100 bbl

ß Medium (M) - = 100 < 1,000 bbl

ß Large (L) - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

ß Huge (H) - = 10,000 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.7 Final Report – P2010

MMS 09/10/02

Table A.2.3

GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Statistics (1985-1999)

Spill Statistics

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills,

Categorized 1985-99 Number

of Spills

Average

Volume

(bbl)

Median

Volume

(bbl)

Exposure

(km-years)

Frequency

(spill per

104 km-yr)

<10" 7 3425 2372 105,390 0.6642

By Pipe Diameter =10" 8 3924 1606 78,879 1.0142

Bad Depth Data 4

By Pipeline Minimum Depth < 10 m 5 2070 1025 105,283 0.4749

= 10 m 6 4718 3867 80,917 0.7415

< 0.5 km 0 0 0 1,561 0.0000

= 0.5 < 2 km 2 2320 4569 17,740 1.1274

= 2 < 5 km 2 631 631 26,233 0.7624 By Segment Length

= 5 km 11 4497 2000 139,456 0.7888

Small 3 57 50 184,269 0.1628

Medium 4 376 292 184,269 0.2171

Large 6 3949 3867 184,269 0.3256 By Spill Size*

Huge 2 15000 15000 184,269 0.1085

By Diameter, By Spill Size

Small 2 60 60 105,390 0.1898

Medium 2 165 165 105,390 0.1898

Large 2 4551 4551 105,390 0.1898 <10"

Huge 1 14423 14423 105,390 0.0949

Small 1 50 50 78,879 0.1268

Medium 2 587 587 78,879 0.2536

Large 4 3648 2600 78,879 0.5071 = 10"

Huge 1 15576 15576 78,879 0.1268

* Spill Size:

ß Small (S) - = 50 < 100 bbl

ß Medium (M) - = 100 < 1,000 bbl

ß Large (L) - = 1,000 < 10,000 bbl

ß Huge (H) - = 10,000 bbl
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.2.8 Final Report – P2010

MMS 09/10/02

Table A.2.4

Cause Distribution of Pipeline Spills, GOM OCS (1972-1999)

Cause Spill Statistics Frequency

Primary Cause Secondary Cause Number of

Spills

Average

Volume

(BBLS)

spill /

(104 kmyrs)

Rig or Construction 1 2000 0.0394 Anchoring Supply Boat 1 50 0.0394

Total Anchoring 2 2050 0.0788

External 1 100 0.0394 Corrosion Internal 3 1838 0.1182

Total Corrosion 4 1938 0.1575

Anchor Drag 11 4027 0.4332

Impact Jackup Rig 2 1625 0.0788

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 5525 0.1969

Total Impact 18 11177 0.7089

Mud Slide 3 2837 0.1182 Natural Hazard Storm/Hurricane 1 3500 0.0394

Total Natural Hazard 4 6337 0.1575

Connector Failure 1 135 0.0394 Structural Material Fatigue 1 210 0.0394

Total Structural 2 345 0.0788

Other 1 119 0.0394

Total Other 1 119 0.0394

Total 31 21966 1.2209

Note: Total exposure is 253,093 km-yrs
Alternative Oil Spill Indicators A.3.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.3 PLATFORM SPILLS IN THE OCS AND THE GOM:

ANALYSIS FOR 1972-1999 AND 1985-1999

A.3.1 Introduction on Platform Spills

This chapter describes the steps taken in analyzing the historical data on platform oil

spills of size 50 bbls and greater.

The data for the analysis comes from two sources: Federal Offshore Statistics report,

October 2000, on the MMS website [8] as:

http://www.mms.gov/stats/xls/CH4ProdW-Ooperatorrank.xls (sheet: 4-2. State-Fed Oil

Prod) and,

http://www.mms.gov/stats/xls/DevActOct2000.xls (sheet: 3-4.Completions by YEAR)

and the OCS_Plat.xls database, received from Cheryl Anderson in February 2001 (a list

of platform spills)

A.3.2 Exposure to Risk

Exposure was determined from the Active Well count (Table 3-4) and the Oil Production

(Table 4-2) of the Federal Offshore Statistics report, October 2000 [12]. Platform

exposure was accumulated over two date ranges: 1972-1999 and 1985-1999 in order to

match some other existing analyses. The work and results can be found in

PlatformSpills.xls. The result sheet is included here as Table A.3.1.

A.3.3 Platform Spill Statistics

The OCS_Plat.xls database contains records of all spills related to platforms in the GOM.

A report was generated from the database for OIL and CONDENSATE spills of 50 bbl or

larger size in the date range of January 1, 1972 to December 31, 1999. There were 21

spills that satisfied those criteria. Those spills were further broken down, for the two date

ranges, into volume ranges. The work and results can be found in PlatformSpills.xls. The

result sheet is included here as Table A.3.2.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.3.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table A.3.1

Platform Spills – Exposure to Risk

Table A.3.2

Platform Spill Statistics (1972-1999)

Well and Crude Oil Exposure of Platforms

Active Exposure Crude Oil Exposure

Year Oil 1972-99 1985-99 and Condensate 1972-99 1985-99 1972-99 1985-99

Wells Well-years Well-years (bbl) (bbl) (bbl) Bbbl Bbbl

1972 3,744 3,744 395,869,226 395,869,226

1973 3,814 7,558 384,794,041 780,663,267

1974 3,686 11,244 354,922,586 1,135,585,853

1975 3,477 14,721 325,273,941 1,460,859,794

1976 3,555 18,276 314,523,413 1,775,383,207

1977 3,747 22,023 295,929,333 2,071,312,540

1978 3,648 25,671 287,949,081 2,359,261,621

1979 2,781 28,452 334,235,468 2,693,497,089

1980 5,375 33,827 274,729,436 2,968,226,525

1981 4,522 38,349 282,896,851 3,251,123,376

1982 4,734 43,083 314,535,001 3,565,658,377

1983 4,142 47,225 350,776,930 3,916,435,307

1984 4,138 51,363 385,125,576 4,301,560,883

1985 4,321 55,684 4,321 379,961,697 4,681,522,580 379,961,697

1986 4,406 60,090 8,727 384,310,840 5,065,833,420 764,272,537

1987 4,543 64,633 13,270 358,638,660 5,424,472,080 1,122,911,197

1988 4,627 69,260 17,897 332,717,807 5,757,189,887 1,455,629,004

1989 4,507 73,767 22,404 323,703,458 6,080,893,345 1,779,332,462

1990 4,515 78,282 26,919 304,394,527 6,385,287,872 2,083,726,989

1991 4,549 82,831 31,468 326,338,234 6,711,626,106 2,410,065,223

1992 4,612 87,443 36,080 347,515,732 7,059,141,838 2,757,580,955

1993 4,774 92,217 40,854 359,153,993 7,418,295,831 3,116,734,948

1994 4,846 97,063 45,700 372,265,212 7,790,561,043 3,489,000,160

1995 4,950 102,013 50,650 417,435,444 8,207,996,487 3,906,435,604

1996 5,040 107,053 55,690 433,144,661 8,641,141,148 4,339,580,265

1997 4,727 111,780 60,417 465,944,624 9,107,085,772 4,805,524,889

1998 4,731 116,511 65,148 490,528,140 9,597,613,912 5,296,053,029

1999 3,203 119,714 68,351 534,174,140 10,131,788,052 5,830,227,169 10.13 5.83

GOM OCS Platform Spills

1972-99

Spill Statistics Exposure Frequency

Number Average Median

of Spills Volume Volume spill/ spill/

(BBLS) (BBLS) (well-years) Bbbls (10^4well-years) Bbbls

By Spill Size

50-99bbls 8 64 62 119714 10.13 0.6683 0.7897

100-999bbls 10 254 185 119714 10.13 0.8353 0.9872

1,000-9,999bbls 3 6130 7000 119714 10.13 0.2506 0.2962

>10,000bbls 0 15000 0 119714 10.13 0.0000 0.0000

Total 21 1021 120 119714 10.13 1.7542 2.0731

GOM OCS Platform Spills

1985-99

Spill Statistics Exposure Frequency

Number Average Median

of Spills Volume Volume spill/ spill/

(BBLS) (BBLS) (well-years) Bbbls (10^4well-years) Bbbls

By Spill Size

50-99bbls 4 64 63 68351 5.83 0.5852 0.6861

100-999bbls 6 331 340 68351 5.83 0.8778 1.0292

1,000-9,999bbls 0 0 0 68351 5.83 0.0000 0.0000

>10,000bbls 0 0 0 68351 5.83 0.0000 0.0000

Total 10 224 135 68351 5.83 1.4630 1.7153
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.4.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.4 NORTH SEA PIPELINE DATA

A.4.1 Risers and Pipeline in Platform Safety Zone

Tables A.4.1 and A.4.2 give spill frequency estimates for risers and pipelines damaged by

anchoring and impacts in the platform safety zone.

Table A.4.3 gives spill frequencies for risers and pipelines damaged in the subsea well

safety zone.

Table A.4.1

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for risers

Area Line Type Diameter

(inches)

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data Comments

2 to 8 2083 1 4.80

Steel

North Sea >10 5249.2 5 9.53

Flexible all 404.1 2 49.49

E&P Forum

[6]

No water depth or distance from land info for the North

Sea data. The following was found to have no effect

on frequency of spills from steel risers: length of

pipeline that the riser is attached, riser diameter, riser

contents, location of riser internal or external steel

jacket.

Table A.4.2

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for risers and pipelines damaged by anchoring and

impact incidents in the platform safety zone (within 500 m of platform)

Area Line Type Diameter

inches

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data Comments

2 to 8 2334 2 8.57

Steel

North Sea >10 5323.3 4 7.51

Flexible all 550.8 0

E&P Forum

[6]

The table in E&P Forum 1996 does not indicate if the

data is for risers only or for pipelines and risers. The

experience numbers, which match closely to those in

Table 1, suggest risers only.

Table A.4.3

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for risers and pipelines damaged by anchoring and

impact incidents in the subsea well safety zone (within 500 m of subsea platform)

Area Line Type Diameter

inches

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data

2 to 8 841.6 0

Steel North Sea >10 89.3 0

Flexible all 657 3 45.66

E&P Forum

[6]
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.4.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.4.2 Pipeline Failure Frequencies for Different Conditions

Table A.4.4 gives pipeline spill frequencies for pipelines damaged by anchoring and

impact incidents in mid-line areas. Table A.4.5 provides the same four pipelines less than

10 kilometers in length, while Table A.4.6 provides these for pipelines between 2 and 5

kilometers in length. Table A.4.7 gives spill frequencies resulting from corrosion and

material defect damage to pipeline greater than 5 kilometers in length. It is expected,

however, that these same corrosion and material defect frequencies should apply to

pipelines less than 5 kilometers in length, as well as pipelines in the safety zone for

platforms or subsea wells.

Table A.4.4

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for pipelines

damaged by anchoring and impact incidents in the mid-line of

pipelines

Area Line Type Diameter

inches

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data

2 to 8 13669.1 3 2.19 Steel North Sea >10 110084.1 1 0.09

Flexible all 808.8 1 12.36

E&P Forum

[6]

Table A.4.5

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for pipelines

damaged by corrosion and material defects for pipelines less

than 2 km in length

Area Line Type/

Contents

Diameter

inches

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data

Steel/gas all 254.9 1 39.23

North Sea Steel/oil all 280.6 6 213.83

Flexible all 298.5 5 167.50

E&P Forum

[6]

Table A.4.6

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for pipelines

damaged by corrosion and material defects for pipelines 2 to 5

km in length

Area Line Type Diameter

inches

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data

Steel/gas all 2280.8 0

North Sea Steel/oil all 1654.4 0

Flexible all 609.3 2 32.82

E&P Forum

[6]
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.4.3 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table A.4.7

North Sea Spill Frequency (per 10,000 km-yrs) for pipelines

damaged by corrosion and material defects for pipelines greater

than 5 km in length

Area Line Type Diameter

inches

Experience

(pipelineyrs)

No. of

spills

Best Estimate

of North Sea Spill

Frequency

Source

of data

Steel/gas all 78160.1 0

North Sea Steel/oil all 35026.9 3 0.856

Flexible all 340.4 0

E&P Forum

[6]
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.5.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.5 CRUDE OIL TANKER SPILLS

Table A.5.1 gives a summary of worldwide and US tanker oil spill statistics.

All numbers represent the spill frequency for either inbound or outbound journeys for

tankers. The numbers must be doubled to calculate the spill frequency of the tankers on a

trip or voyage basis which would include both an outbound portion (when the tanker is

loaded) and the inbound portion (when the cargo is unloaded). If, for example, 278 large

(>1000 bbl) occurred on a worldwide basis from 1964 to 1999 and the volume of crude

oil moved or transported during this period was 239.67 billion barrels, the spill frequency

would be 278/239.67 or 1.16 spills per billion barrels, half of which would occur on

outbound portions of journeys and half on the inbound.

A trip or a voyage includes the outbound and the inbound portions. The average size of

worldwide crude oil tanker is 826,000 bbl.

All references in the table are Anderson and Labelle 2001 except where noted. Statistics

based on the years 1974 to 1999.

Table A.5.1

Crude Oil Tanker Spills of Various Sizes and Locations

Location Size

Range(bbl)

Spills/

Billion bbl

Loaded or

Unloaded

Spills/10,000

Voyages or

Trips

Average Spill

Size (bbl)

Median

Spill Size

(bbl)

References:

Worldwide

all locations >200,000 0.05 0.83 539,000 382,000 [15]

all locations >100,000 0.12 1.98 374,000 244,000 [2, 3]

all locations >10,000 0.295 4.87 178,700 66,000 [2, 3]

in port >10,000 0.09 1.49 175,500 49,500 [2, 3]

at sea >10,000 0.205 3.39 180,200 71,400 [2, 3]

all locations >1000 0.58 9.58 93,900 11,300 [2, 3]

in port >1000 0.245 4.05 68,300 6,300 [2, 3]

"at Sea" total >1000 0.335 5.53 112,400 17,000 [2, 3]

"at Sea"-open water >50 nmi >1000 0.060 1.00 [2, 3]

>1000 0.275 4.54 [2, 3]

50 to 999 1.5 24.8 233 132 [13]

"at Sea"-restricted water

<50nmi

1 to 49 7.8 129 10 5 [13]

US Coastal & Offshore

all locations >10,000 0.215 3.6 62,100 20,000 [2, 3, 17]

in port >10,000 0.100 1.65 23,700 20,000 [2, 3]

at sea >10,000 0.115 1.90 96,700 43,200 [2, 3]

all locations >1000 0.515 8.51 28,000 7,000 [2, 3]

in port >1000 0.335 5.53 10,000 6,000 [2, 3]

at sea >1000 0.18 2.97 61,900 16,100 [19, 20]
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.6.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.6 OFFLOADING SPILL RATES

Table A.6.1 gives a summary of tankers/platform oil spills occurring tanker loading at the

platform. Spills greater than 1,000 bbl data was based on UK experience, from 1975-

1993, where two spills (4,000 bbl each) occurred from 3,409 liftings involving 1,700

million barrels and Statoil experience in Norway, from 1979-1995, where two spills

(4,000 and 5,800 bbl) involved 5,000 liftings of 4 billion barrels.

Table A.6.1

Spills from offshore platforms lifting crude oil to tankers

Spill Size Range

Spills/

10,000

Liftings

Spills/

Billion bbl

Average

Spill Size

(bbl)

References

all sizes 40.00 5.90 [10]

100 –1,000 bbl 10.00 1.47 [10]

>1,000 bbl * 4.76 0.70 4450 [6, 19, 20,]

>10,000 bbl 0 [17, 19]
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.7.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.7 SUMMARY OF ABOVE GROUND STORAGE TANK (AST)

SPILL STATISTICS

This chapter presents a summary of above ground storage tank (AST) spill statistics.

Tables A.7.1 and A.7.2 provide the exposure data. Table A.7.3 provides the causal

distribution of AST releases. Table A.7.4 gives the spill frequencies for all ASTs.

Table A.7.1

Summary of AST Statistics [6]

API Segment

Surveyed

Above

Ground Tanks

Estimated

National

Total

Total

Capacity

Average

Age

Production 54,046 572,620 280,595 15.1

Table A.7.2

Number of ASTs by Capacity Range, Production, bbl [6]

25-500 500-1,000 1000 - 10,000 100,000 - 500,000 > 500,000 total

510,045 37,628 17,977 974 27 572,620

Table A.7.3

Production AST Release Frequency Distribution [6]

Causes (for all ASTs) %

Corrosion 60

Improper Installation and tank failure 18

Loose fittings 12

Overfills and spills 10

TOTAL 100

Table A.7.4

Frequencies for all ASTs—no spill sizes given

Spill Size (bbl)

Release Description Frequency Average Median

small/medium leaks 1.1 x 10^-2 to 3.9 x 10^-2 6500 700

serious release (say, > 10,000 gallons) ? 9.6 x 10^-5

major release (say, >1000 bbl) 6.9 x 10^-6
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.8.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.8 GAS BLOWOUTS

Based on the SL Ross Northstar study [17], Table A.8.1 gives a summary for gas

blowouts associated with different well conditions ranging from drilling to production.

Table A.8.1

Gas Blowouts Statistical Summary

Worldwide

1955-1980

US GOM

1955-1980

US OCS

1971-1990

Norwegian

North Sea

1976-1980

UK North

Sea

1955-1980

USGOM &

North Sea

combined,

1980-1992

(selected)

North SeaNorway &

UK

Combined,

1980-1993

Wells Drilled 36633 17184 21425 11116 1559 15294 4704

Exploration Wells 11737 4794 6610 4175 838 5781 2315

Development Wells 24896 12390 14815 6941 721 9513 2389

Exploration Well Blowouts incl.

Shallow Gas Blowouts 96 30 40 32 ? 43 16

Development Well Blowouts incl. S.G.

Blowouts 66 36 34 14 ? 25 4

Production/workover Blowouts 52 32 36 ? ? 43 4

Total Blowouts incl. S.G. &

Production Blowouts 214 98 110 46 6 111 24

Shallow Gas Blowouts 54 29 ? ? 0 46 ?

Blowout Incidence: total exp.& dev.

Blowouts / total drilled one in 230 one in 260 one in 290 one in 240 one in 260 one in 230 one in 290

Blowout Incidence: Exploration

Drilling Only only one in 120 one in 160 one in 170 one in 130 - one in 130 one in 170

Blowout Incidence: Development

Drilling Only. one in 380 one in 340 one in 440 one in 500 - one in 380 one in 440
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.9.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.9 BLOWOUTS WITH OIL

Based on the same reference, the SL Ross Northstar study [17], Table A.9.1 gives oil

blowout summary for a range of well types. The Figures cited are probabilities of

blowouts as described in that table.

Table A.9.1

Oil Blowout Data Summary

Event Historical

Frequency Experience

BLOWOUTS

1. Gas blowout during development drilling 2.5 x 10-3/wells drilled US OCS, 1964-1995

2. Gas blowout during exploration drilling 5.4 x 10-3/wells drilled US OCS, 1964-1995

3. Blowout during production and workovers involving some oil discharge >1 bbl 6.5 x 10-5/well-years US OCS, 1964-1995

4. Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 7.8 x 10-5/wells drilled Worldwide, 1970-present

5. Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 1.5 x 10-4/wells drilled Worldwide, 1970-present

6. Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 3.9 x 10-5/wells drilled Worldwide, 1970-present

7. Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 5.5 x 10-5/wells drilled Worldwide, 1970-present

8. Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 2.5 x 10-5/well-year Worldwide, 1970-present

9. Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 1.0 x 10-5/well-year Worldwide, 1970-present

PLATFORM SPILLS (incl. blowouts)

1. Oil spill > 10,000 bbl 1.3 x 10-5/well-year US OCS, 1964-1995

2. Oil spill > 1,000 bbl 3.6 x 10-5/well-year US OCS, 1964-1995

3. Oil spill > 50 bbl 8.3 x 10-4/well-year US OCS, 1964-1995

4. Oil spill 1-50 bbl 1.7 x 10-2/well-year US OCS, 1964-1995
Alternative Oil Spill Indicators A.10.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.10 OIL TANKER SPILLS

Table A.10.1 provides a summary of crude oil tanker spill characteristics including size

ranges, tanker capacities, spill frequencies per trip, average spill size, and median spill

size.

All numbers represent the spill frequency for either inbound or outbound journeys for

tankers. The numbers must be doubled to calculate the spill frequency of the tankers on a

trip or voyage basis which would include both an outbound portion (when the tanker is

loaded) and an inbound portion (when the cargo is unloaded). If, for example, 278 large

(>1,000 bbl) occurred on a worldwide basis from 1964 to 1999 (which is true) and the

volume of crude oil moved or transported during this period was 239.67 billion barrels,

the spill frequency would be 278/239.67 or 1.16 spills per billion barrels, half of which

would occur on outbound portions of journeys and half on the inbound.

A trip or a voyage includes the outbound and the inbound portions. All references are

Anderson and Labelle, 2001, except where noted. Statistics are based on the years 1974

to 1999.

Table A.10.1

Crude Oil Tanker Spills of Various Sizes and Locations

Location Size Range

(spills/bbl)

Billion bbl

Loaded or

Unloaded

Spills/10,000

Voyages or

Trips

Average Spill

Size (bbl)

Median Spill

Size (bbl) References

Worldwide

All Locations >200,000 0.05 0.83 539,000 382,000 [2]

All Locations >100,000 0.12 1.98 373,800 243,600 [2, 3]

In Port >100,000 0.35 5.78 310,300 251,000 [2, 3]

At Sea >100,000 0.085 1.40 392,900 243,600 [2, 3]

All Locations >10,000 0.295 4.87 178,700 66,000 [2, 3]

In Port >10,000 0.09 1.49 175,500 49,500 [2, 3]

At Sea >10,000 0.205 3.39 180,200 71,400 [2, 3]

All Locations >1,000 0.58 9.58 93,900 11,300 [2, 3]

In Port >1,000 0.245 4.05 68,300 6,300 [2, 3]

“At Sea” Total >1,000 0.335 5.53 112,400 17,000 [2, 3]

“At Sea” – Open Water >50 nmi >1,000 0.060 1.00 - - [2, 3]

>1,000 0.275 4.54 - - [13, 15]

“At Sea” – Restricted water < 50 nmi 50 to 999 1.5 24.8 233 132 [13, 15]

1 to 49 7.8 129 10 5 [13, 15]

US Coastal and Offshore

All Locations >10,000 0.215 3.6 62,100 20,000 [2, 3]

In Port >10,000 0.100 1.65 23,700 20,000 [2, 3]

At Sea >10,000 0.115 1.90 96,700 43,200 [2, 3]

All Locations >1,000 0.515 8.51 28,000 7,000 [2, 3]

In Port >1,000 0.335 5.53 10,000 6,000 [2, 3]

At Sea >1,000 0.18 2.97 61,900 16,100 [2, 3]
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.11.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.11 SPILLS DURING TANKER LOADINGS

AT OFFSHORE PLATFORMS

A.11.1 Introduction

Spills are possible when crude oil is transferred from production platforms to shuttle

tankers. Developing predictions of frequencies for such spills is difficult at this time

because the design of the loading/lifting system has not been finalized. As well, the

technologies involved in offshore tanker loadings have changed significantly over the last

few years, making questionable the use of historical spill statistics for predicting future

spill frequencies; the literature seems to indicate a dramatic drop in spill frequencies over

the last few years as better technologies have been adopted. The issue is discussed in

three different ways below. Table A.11.1 summarizes offshore loading incidents.

A.11.2 Experience in the U.K. Sector of the North Sea

The area that has the most experience with the use of tankers to lift offshore oil is the

North Sea. The U.K. sector has been using tankers since 1976 to transport oil from the

offshore production facilities to shore using both Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) and Single

Point Mooring (SPM) systems. There are two separate reports on this experience which

provide somewhat different results, as described below.

A.11.3 Experience during 1976-1979 as reported in Gulf 1981

The breakdown of statistics from 1976 (when production began) to 1979 is available in

Gulf (1981) [7]. Of all spills during E&P activities in the U.K. sector of the North Sea

twenty three percent, that is 34 spills, involved offloading accidents and accounted for 73

percent of the total oil spilled. Ninety-four percent of these 34 spills were less than 100

barrels each, with an average spill size of 18 barrels.

There were two large spills (> 1000 barrels), each having a volume of 4000 barrels. The

volume of oil lifted during 1976 to 1979 inclusive was 870 million barrels; therefore, the

frequency of large spills was 2/0.87 or 2.3 spills per billion barrels offloaded.

A.11.4 Experience During 1975-1993 as Reported by E&P Forum 1996

It is noted in E&P Forum 1996 [6] that pollution incidents associated with liftings should

be grouped according to the lifting system. Table 8 mainly covers non-CALM (Catenary

Anchor Leg Mooring) systems, as the CALM system was a first generation system and

have been phased out. The table uses offshore loading statistics from the UK Department

of Trade and Industry (DTI) pollution reports over the years 1977-93 (Offshore Pollution

Reports from Field Operators, 1977-93) [21].
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.11.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

Table A.11.1

 Pollution Incidents - UK Offshore Loading 1975-93 (non-CALM systems)

Spill Source Total Number Total Volume

(bbl)

Minimum Size

(bbl)

Maximum Size

(bbl)

Average Size

(bbl)

Storage 36 4,343 0.1 4,000 121

Pipeline 1 19 19 19 19

System 10 9,455 0.25 9,400 946

Hose 14 1088 0.5 500 78

Tanker 2 7 2 5 4

TOTALS 63 14,912 0.1 9,400 237

Definitions:

Storage - storage containment, either on production installation or loading facility

Pipeline - pipelines between production, storage and loading facilities

System - loading buoy or facility, e.g. pipework, swivels etc. but excluding storage

Hose - hose system from loading facility to tanker, including coupler

Tanker - on board tanker

The total volume loaded over the above systems between 1977 and end-1993 is about 1700

million barrels, via 3409 liftings. There are two large spills (> 1000 barrels) shown in Table 8 (4000

bbl and 9,400 bbl). Therefore, the frequency of large spills was 2/1.7 or 1.2 spills per billion

barrels offloaded.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.11.3 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

A.11.5 Statoil Experience in the North Sea, 1979-1995

Statoil, the national oil company of Norway, has more than 15 years of experience with

offshore loading in the North Sea, starting with the Statfjord A platform in 1979. Initially,

the operation was based on an articulated loading platform (ALP) and modified

conventional tankers, but has evolved into today's submerged turret loading (STL) system

and a large fleet of specialized vessels. A Statoil paper on the subject [4] indicates that

5000 cargoes of crude oil, involving about 4 billion barrels, have been lifted by Statoiloperated tankers up to May 1994. In that time only two large spills have occurred: a

4000-barrel spill in 1980 and a 5800-barrel spill in 19921. This gives a spill frequency of

2/4 x 109 or. 0.5 large spills per billion barrels offloaded

In terms of smaller spills, Breivik [4] indicates that only two have occurred, each less

than 150 barrels.

A.11.6 Conclusion

The existing data suggest that in the earlier days of offloading, the frequency of large

spills was relatively high (2.3 spills per billion barrels produced) and very high for

smaller spills, but has been reduced lately (to 0.5 large spills per billion barrels produced)

as a result of better technologies. This change is clearly shown in the UK data [21] from

1975 to 1993, where the number of 1.2 spills per billion barrels is about the average of

the other two numbers. If it is assumed that current projects will take advantage of these

latest technologies and systems and operate them as well as Statoil claims to be doing,

then a large-spill frequency of 0.5 spills /109 bbl produced might be a reasonable

predictor. If not, a higher number, perhaps 2.3 spills/109 bbl, should be used. For want of

further information, the middle number is recommended for current projects, i.e., 1.2

large spills (>1000 bbl) for every billion barrels offloaded.

 

1

 This latter spill, the second largest in Norwegian waters, was not referenced in the Breivik 1995 paper.

According to the Oil Spill Intelligence Report (International Spill Statistics: 1992), the spill took place on

July 9, 1992 at the Statfjord offshore oil field, 140 km offshore at Lat: 61.00N and Lon: 002.00E. The

spill was suspected to be caused by workers who left a valve open while transferring oil from the

platform to the oil tanker.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.R.1 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

REFERENCES

1. Adams Pearson Associates Inc., “Recommended Philosophy for Development of a

Worst Case Blowout Scenario for Wells Drilled in the Beaufort Sea”. Report

prepared for the Canadian Petroleum Association, Beaufort Sea Steering Committee,

Calgary, Alberta. March 1991.

2. Anderson, C.M. and LaBelle, R.P., “Comparative Occurrence Rates for Offshore

Spills”. Spill Science & Technology Bulletin, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp 131-141. Elsevier

Sciences Ltd., Oxford, U.K. 1994.

3. Anderson, C.M., and LaBelle, R.P., “Update of Comparative Occurrence Rates for

Offshore Spills”, Spill Science & Technology Bulletin, Vol. 6, No. 5/6, pp.303-321,

2000.

4. Breivik, Document on Statoil Spills in the North Sea”, 1995.

5. E&P Forum, Hydrocarbon Leak and Ignition Database. Report by Technica a.s. for

E&P Forum. (The Oil Industry International Exploration and Production Forum), 25-

28 Old Burlington Street, London W1X 1LB. 1992.

6. E&P Forum, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Data Sheet Directory. The Oil

Industry International Exploration and Production Forum, 25-28 Old Burlington

Street, London. 1996.

7. Gulf Canada, Analysis of Accidents in Offshore Operations Where Hydrocarbons

Were Lost. A report by the Houston Technical Services Center of Gulf Research and

Development Company for Gulf Canada Resources, Inc. Calgary, Alberta. 1981.

8. MMS OCS Events Reports/Lists – Links on the Worldwide Web

http://www.mms.gov/incidents/summary95-96.html Incidents Associated with Oil

& Gas Operations (Summary 1995-96)

http://www.mms.gov/incidents/blowouts.html Loss of Well Control

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/safety/acc_repo/accindex. Accident

Investigation Panel Final Reports (GOM)

http://www.mms.gov/stats/OCSincident.html OCS-Related Incidents - Tracking OCS

Events

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/pubinfo/freeasci/pipeline/zipped/fixed/PipelineM

astersFixeddfn.html - Pipeline built and abandoned since 1948

9. MMS (Minerals Management Service), Accidents Associated with Oil an Gas

Operations: Outer Continental Shelf 1956-1990. OCS Report MMS 92-0058. 1992.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM A.R.2 Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

10. MMS (Minerals Management Service), Federal Offshore Statistics: 1995. Leasing,

exploration, production and revenues to December 31, 1995. U.S. Department of the

Interior, Mineral Management Service, Operations and Safety Management, OCS

Report MMS 97-0007. 1997.

11. MMS CD, US DOI, MMS Leaks Database, February 26, 2001.

12. MMS, Federal Offshore Statistics Report, October 2000.

13. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., Panuke/Cohasset Field Development Project:

Risk, Behaviour and Effects of Oil Spills. Report to IONA Resources Ltd. and Nova

Scotia Resources Ltd., July 1989.

14. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., Blowout and Spill Probability Assessment

for the Sable Offshore Energy Project. Report to Mobil Oil Canada Properties,

November 1995.

15. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., Oil Spills Associated with the Terra Nova

Development Project off Newfoundland: Risk Assessment; Spill Fate, Behaviour and

Impact; Countermeasures; and Contingency Planning. Report to Petro-Canada Inc.,

December 1996.

16. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., Contingency Plans to Monitor and Clean Up

Large Spills from SOEP Offshore Facilities. Prepared for Sable Offshore Energy

Project, Halifax, NS, March 31, 1998.

17. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., Blowout and Spill Probability Assessment

for the Northstar and Liberty Oil Development Projects in the Alaska North Slope.

Report to BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc., November 1998.

18. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., Large Oil Spills and Blowouts from

Exploration Drilling on Georges Bank: An Analysis of their Probability, Behaviour,

Control and Environmental Effects. Chevron Canada Resources and Texaco Canada

Petroleum Inc., submitted to the Georges Bank Review Panel. January 1999.

19. S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd., “Risk Study for White Rose EIS”, 2000.

20. Smyth, D., and Purden, V., “Bulk Trade and Bulk Fleet Reports”, 1991.

21. U.K. Department of Trade and Industry, “Offshore Pollution Reports from Field

Operators (1977-1993)”, 1995.
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.1

APPENDIX B

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE PAGE

B.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Scenarios.......................................................B.2

B.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Scenarios.......................................................B.5

B.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Scenarios.......................................................B.8

B.4 Beaufort Sea All Sale Development Scenarios..................................................B.11

B.5a Chuckchi Sea Base Case MidPoint Development Scenarios.............................B.14

B.5b Chuckchi Sea High Case MidPoint Development Scenarios ............................B.15
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.2

Table B.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2

Shallow 1 1 3 3

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 1 1 3 3

Shallow 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 2

Deep

Total 2 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Shallow 2 10 36 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 36 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 2 10 46 20 20 39.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 46 20 20 39.8

Shallow 2 46 20 20 36.3

Medium 1 1 3 3

Deep

Total 1 3 3 49 20 20 36.3

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2012

2013

2014

2007

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2008

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2004

2005

2006
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.3

Table B.1 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 2 46 10 30 10 30 33.4

Medium 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep

Total 3 10 59 20 40 20 40 44.3

Shallow 2 46 30 30 27.6

Medium 1 10 23 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 10 69 40 40 47.5

Shallow 2 46 30 30 22.7

Medium 1 23 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 42.6

Shallow 2 46 30 30 18.8

Medium 1 23 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 38.7

Shallow 2 46 30 30 15.5

Medium 1 23 10 10 16.4

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 31.9

Shallow 2 46 30 30 12.8

Medium 1 23 10 10 13.5

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 26.3

Shallow 2 46 30 30 10.5

Medium 1 23 10 10 11.2

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 21.7

Shallow 2 46 30 30 8.7

Medium 1 23 10 10 9.2

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 17.9

Shallow 2 46 30 30 7.3

Medium 1 23 10 10 7.6

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 14.9

Shallow 2 46 30 30 6.1

Medium 1 23 10 10 6.3

Deep

Total 3 69 40 40 12.4

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -10 20 -10 20 3.0

Medium 1 23 10 10 5.2

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -10 30 -10 30 8.2

Shallow 1 23 20 20 2.6

Medium 1 23 10 10 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 30 30 6.9

Shallow -1 -23 -10 10 -10 10

Medium 1 23 10 10 3.5

Deep

Total -1 1 -23 23 -10 20 -10 20 3.5

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 10 10 3.0

Deep

Total 1 23 20 20 3.0

2025

2026

2027

2028

2021

2022

2023

2024

2017

2018

2019

2020

2016

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2015

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.4

Table B.1 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 10 10 2.6

Deep

Total 1 23 20 20 2.6

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -1 -23 -10 -10

Deep

Total -1 -23 -20 -20

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.5

Table B.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2

Shallow

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1 3 3

Medium 1

Deep 1

Total 2 1 1 3 3

Shallow 1 10 13 15 15 15 15 10.9

Medium 2

Deep 1

Total 1 2 1 10 13 15 15 15 15 10.9

Shallow 1 10 23 15 15 19.9

Medium 2

Deep

Total 2 1 10 23 15 15 19.9

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2008

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

2010

2011

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2012

2013

2014
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.6

Table B.2 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 23 15 15 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 23 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 15 15 19.9

Medium 1 1 3 3

Deep

Total 1 2 3 26 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 10 25 10 25 16.4

Medium 1 2 13 16 5 5 10 10 15 15 18.4

Deep

Total 1 3 13 39 5 5 20 35 25 40 34.8

Shallow 1 23 25 25 13.5

Medium 2 20 36 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 20 59 5 35 40 44.2

Shallow 1 23 25 25 11.2

Medium 2 10 46 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 10 69 5 35 40 41.9

Shallow 1 23 25 25 9.2

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 39.9

Shallow 1 23 25 25 7.6

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 38.3

Shallow 1 23 25 25 6.3

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 26.4

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 32.7

Shallow 1 23 25 25 5.2

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 22.7

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 27.9

Shallow 1 23 25 25 4.3

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 19.5

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 23.8

Shallow 1 23 25 25 3.5

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 16.8

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 20.3

Shallow 1 23 25 25 2.9

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 14.4

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 17.3

Shallow 1 23 25 25 2.4

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 12.4

Deep

Total 3 69 5 35 40 14.8

Shallow -1 -23 -15 10 -15 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 10.7

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 5 -15 20 -15 25 10.7

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2016

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2015

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.7

Table B.2 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 9.2

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 9.2

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 7.9

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 7.9

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 6.8

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 6.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 5.8

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 5.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 5.0

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 5.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 4.3

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 5 10 15 3.7

Deep

Total 2 46 5 20 25 3.7

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -2 -46 -5 -10 -15

Deep

Total -2 -46 -5 -20 -25

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2029

2030

2031

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.8

Table B.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 2

Deep

Total 2

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2008

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

2010

2011

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2012

2013

2014
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.9

Table B.3 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium 2

Deep 1

Total 1 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1 4 4

Deep 1

Total 1 1 1 4 4

Shallow 15 15 15 15

Medium 1 2 14 18 5 5 15 15 20 20 30.8

Deep

Total 1 2 14 18 5 5 30 30 35 35 30.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 38 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 58 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 58 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 10 68 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 10 68 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 34.0

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 34.0

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 29.9

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 29.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 26.3

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 26.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 23.2

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 23.2

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2016

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2015

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.10

Table B.3 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 20.4

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 20.4

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 17.9

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 17.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 15.8

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 15.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 13.9

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 13.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 12.2

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 12.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 10.8

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 10.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 9.5

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 9.5

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 8.3

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 6.5

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2029

2030

2031

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.11

Table B.4

Beaufort Sea All Sale Development Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1

Shallow 1 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2

Shallow 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2

Shallow 1 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 2 2

Shallow 2 1 1 3 3

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2 1 1 3 3

Shallow 1 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 1 2

Deep

Total 2 2 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Shallow 1 3 13 39 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium 2

Deep 1

Total 3 1 3 13 39 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 3 20 59 15 35 15 35 50.7

Medium 1 3

Deep 1

Total 2 3 3 20 59 15 35 15 35 50.7

Shallow 3 10 69 35 35 56.2

Medium 4 1 1 3 3

Deep

Total 4 1 4 13 72 35 35 56.2

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2012

2013

2014

2007

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2008

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

2004

2005

2006
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.12

Table B.4 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 3 69 10 45 10 45 53.3

Medium 2 1 10 13 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep 1

Total 1 2 4 10 82 20 55 20 55 64.2

Shallow 3 69 45 45 47.5

Medium 1 2 13 26 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 1 5 13 95 55 55 67.4

Shallow 3 69 10 55 10 55 39.1

Medium 1 3 13 39 5 5 10 20 15 25 38.3

Deep 1

Total 1 1 6 13 108 5 5 20 75 25 80 77.4

Shallow 3 69 55 55 32.3

Medium 1 4 24 63 5 20 25 50.6

Deep 1

Total 1 1 7 24 132 5 75 80 82.9

Shallow 3 69 15 70 15 70 26.7

Medium 1 5 24 87 5 10 15 35 20 45 77.9

Deep

Total 1 8 24 156 5 10 30 105 35 115 104.6

Shallow 3 69 70 70 22.0

Medium 5 20 107 10 35 45 82.8

Deep

Total 8 20 176 10 105 115 104.8

Shallow 3 69 70 70 18.1

Medium 5 20 127 10 35 45 80.5

Deep

Total 8 20 196 10 105 115 98.6

Shallow 3 69 70 70 15.0

Medium 5 10 137 10 35 45 74.2

Deep

Total 8 10 206 10 105 115 89.2

Shallow 3 69 70 70 12.5

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 68.9

Deep

Total 8 206 10 105 115 81.4

Shallow 3 69 70 70 10.4

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 64.4

Deep

Total 8 206 10 105 115 74.8

Shallow -1 2 -23 46 -10 60 -10 60 6.5

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 56.0

Deep

Total -1 7 -23 183 10 -10 95 -10 105 62.5

Shallow 2 46 60 60 5.5

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 48.6

Deep

Total 7 183 10 95 105 54.1

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -10 50 -10 50 2.4

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 42.2

Deep

Total -1 6 -23 160 10 -10 85 -10 95 44.6

Shallow -1 -23 -15 35 -15 35

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 36.9

Deep

Total -1 5 -23 137 10 -15 70 -15 80 36.9

2025

2026

2027

2028

2021

2022

2023

2024

2017

2018

2019

2020

2016

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

2015

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.13

Table B.4 - continued

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 35 35

Medium 5 137 10 35 45 32.2

Deep

Total 5 137 10 70 80 32.2

Shallow -10 25 -10 25

Medium -1 4 -23 114 10 -10 25 -10 35 25.8

Deep

Total -1 4 -23 114 10 -20 50 -20 60 25.8

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 22.6

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 22.6

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 19.7

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 19.7

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 17.2

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 17.2

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 15.1

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 15.1

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 10 25 35 13.2

Deep

Total 4 114 10 50 60 13.2

Shallow -10 15 -10 15

Medium -2 2 -46 68 -5 5 -10 15 -15 20 8.3

Deep

Total -2 2 -46 68 -5 5 -20 30 -25 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 5 30 35 6.5

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.14

Table B.5a

Chuckchi Sea Base Case MidPoint Development Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 2

Total 2 2 0

Shallow 5 5 5 5

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 135 135 135 135

Total 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 2 8 8 135 135

Total 2 2 8 8 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 4 40 48 135 135

Total 2 4 40 48 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 6 60 108 135 135

Total 2 6 60 108 200 200 101.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 80 188 135 135

Total 6 80 188 200 200 135.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 26 214 135 135

Total 6 26 214 200 200 135.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 119.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 103.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 92.0

2010

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

2006

2007

2008

2009

2001

2003

2004

2005

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2002

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

1998

1999

2000
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

B.15

Table B.5b

Chuckchi Sea High Case MidPoint Development Scenarios

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 3 1

Total 3 1 0

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 1

Total 2 1 0

Shallow 5 5 5 5

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 2 2 2 135 135 135 135

Total 2 2 2 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 8 50 50 135 135

Total 6 8 50 50 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 4 12 80 130 135 135

Total 4 12 80 130 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 270 135 135

Total 12 140 270 200 200 223.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 410 135 135

Total 12 140 410 200 200 297.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 72 482 135 135

Total 12 72 482 200 200 297.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 262.0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 227.0

2010

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

2006

2007

2008

2009

2001

2003

2004

2005

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2002

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

1998

1999

2000
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

C.i

APPENDIX C

MONTE CARLO CALCULATIONS AND RESULTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

0 TOC

T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

F.0 Flow Chart

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2A Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

T.1.3 Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.4 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.5 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

T.1.5A Historical Spills Data - Wells

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 FTA Input Rationalization - Pipeline

T.2.1A Monte Carlo Input - Pipeline

T.2.2 FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

T2.2A Monte Carlo Input - Platforms

T.2.3 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

T.2.4 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

T.2.5 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

T.2.6 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

T.2.7 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

T.2.8 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

T.2.9 Arctic Frequency - Wells

T.2.10 Average Spill Distribution

F.2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

F.2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

F.2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

F.2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

F.2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

T.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

T.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

T.3.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

T.3.5 Chukchi Sea Base Case 1998-2010

T.3.6 Chukchi Sea High Case 1998-2010

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 1

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary
T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

APPENDIX

C TITLE

0 TOC

T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

F.0 Flow Chart

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2A Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

T.1.3 Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.4 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.5 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

T.1.5A Historical Spills Data - Wells

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 FTA Input Rationalization - Pipeline

T.2.1A Monte Carlo Input - Pipeline

T.2.2 FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

T2.2A Monte Carlo Input - Platforms

T.2.3 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

T.2.4 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

T.2.5 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

T.2.6 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

T.2.7 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

T.2.8 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

T.2.9 Arctic Frequency - Wells

T.2.10 Average Spill Distribution

F.2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

F.2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

F.2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

F.2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

F.2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

T.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

T.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

T.3.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

T.3.5 Chukchi Sea Base 1998-2010

T.3.6 Chukchi Sea High 1998-2010

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 1

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group C0 Appendix C TOC.xlsTOC 10/31/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

0 TOC

T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

F.0 Flow Chart

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2A Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

T.1.3 Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.4 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.5 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

T.1.5A Historical Spills Data - Wells

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 FTA Input Rationalization - Pipeline

T.2.1A Input - Pipeline

T.2.2 FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

T2.2A Input - Platforms

T.2.3 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

T.2.4 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

T.2.5 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

T.2.6 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

T.2.7 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

T.2.8 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

T.2.9 Arctic Frequency - Wells

T.2.10 Average Spill Distribution

F.2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

F.2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

F.2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

F.2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

F.2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

T.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

T.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

T.3.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

T.3.5 Chukchi Sea Base 1998-2010

T.3.6 Chukchi Sea High 1998-2010

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 1

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

F.4.1.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 2

T.4.2.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

T.4.2.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

T.4.2.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

F.4.2.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 3

T.4.3.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline

T.4.3.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.3.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

T.4.3.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.3.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

T.4.3.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.3.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

T.4.3.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.3.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells

T.4.3.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.3.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

T.4.3.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

T.4.3.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

F.4.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

F.4.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

F.4.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.3.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.3.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.3.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.3.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.3.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.3.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.3.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

F.4.4.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

4.4A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4A.13 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

F.4.4A.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4A.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4A.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4A.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4A.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4A.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4A.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4A.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4A.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4A.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4A.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4A.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4A.13 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.14 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.15 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea Base Case

T.4.5.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline

T.4.5.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.5.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms

T.4.5.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.5.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells

T.4.5.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.5.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.5.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.5.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells

T.4.5.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.5.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Summary

T.4.5.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Annual Summary

F.4.5.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency

F.4.5.2 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.5.3 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Index

4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.6.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

4.6A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

T.4.6A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6A.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6A.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.6A.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6A.4 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.5 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.6 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

T.5.2 Composition of Spill Indicators

F.5.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Year 2024 Spill Indicators

F.5.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Year 2024 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

F.5.3 Chukchi Sea High Case year 2010 Spill Indicators

F.5.4 Chukchi Sea High Case year 2010 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
Figure T.0 Flow Chart

Fault Tree Analysis Hazard Scenarios 

Spill Size

Frequency and Cause Arctic Spill Frequency Annual 

Small Spill >=50<100 bbl Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

<10" Dia

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Medium Spill >=100<1000 bbl

Pipeline

Large Spill >=1000<10000 bblHuge Spill >= 10000 bbl

>=10" Dia

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 mDeep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 mLarge Spill Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Spill >=10000<150000 bblSpill >=150000 bbl

Development Well D.

Chukchi Sea

Base Case

Chukchi Sea

High Case

Chukchi Sea

High Case Non Artic

Beaufort Sea

All Sales

Production WellExploration Well D.

Beaufort Sea

All Sales Non Arctic

Facility

Historical Data Analysis

Platform

Beaufort Sea

Sale 2

Beaufort Sea

Sale 3

Beaufort Sea

Sale 1

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsFlow Chart 
Table 1.1

Analysis of Historical Spills - P/L

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S M L H S

CORROSION 4 121 3 External 1 80 1 1

Internal 3 100 5000 414 2 1 2 

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 16 2563 7 

Anchor Impact 10 19833 65 50 300 900 323 15576 2000 800 1211 2422 6 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 1 3200 1 

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 4000 100 14423 4569 4533 1 3 1 1 

OPERATION IMPACT 4 3 1 3Rig Anchoring 1 50 1 1

Work Boat Anchoring 3 50 5100 50 2 1 2 

MECHANICAL 2 2 2

Connection Failure 1 135 1 1

Material Failure 1 210 1 1

NATURAL HAZARD 4 112 2 Mud Slide 3 250 80 8212 1 1 1 2 

Storm/ Hurricane 1 3500 1 

ARCTICIce GougingStrudel ScourUpheaval BucklingThaw SettlementOtherUNKNOWN 1 119 1 1

TOTALS 31 7 11 10 3 1

NUMBER

CAUSE OF SPILLS

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.1 
Table 1.2

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - P/L

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [km-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4km-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [km-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4km-year

CORROSION 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394External 5.56 1 0.0394Internal 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 7 0.2757 69.23 9 0.3545Anchor Impact 33.33 6 0.2363 30.77 4 0.1575Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 1 0.0394Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 1 0.0394 30.77 4 0.1575

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394

Rig Anchoring 5.56 1 0.0394Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394MECHANICAL 11.11 2 0.0788Connection Failure 5.56 1 0.0394Material Failure 5.56 1 0.0394NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 2 0.0788 15.38 2 0.0788Mud Slide 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 1 0.0394ARCTICIce GougingStrudel ScourUpheaval BucklingThaw SettlementOtherUNKNOWN 5.56 1 0.0394TOTALS 100.00 18 0.7089 100.00 13 0.5120

Large and Huge Spills

253903 253903

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.2 
Table 1.2A

Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

Exposure** Frequ

Number Average Median

of Spills Volume Volume km-years spill 

bbl bbl 10^4 km

By Pipe Diameter

<10" 16 2141 173 142,892 1.11

>=10" 15 4070 1211 111,011 1.35

By Pipeline Minimum Depth

Bad Depth Data* 14

<10m 6 2310 1211 161,966 0.37

>=10m 11 3165 1040 94,641 1.16

By Segment Length

<0.5km 0 0 0 2,359 0.00

>=0.5<2km 2 2335 2335 25,484 0.78

>=2<5km 7 820 100 35,279 1.98

>=5km 22 3859 850 192,270 1.14

By Spill Size

Small 6 58 50 253,903 0.23

Medium 12 317 230 253,903 0.47

Large 10 4133 4267 253,903 0.39

Huge 3 16611 15576 253,903 0.11

By Diameter, By Spill Size

<10" Small 4 58 50 142,892 0.27

Medium 7 266 135 142,892 0.48

Large 4 4436 4551 142,892 0.27

Huge 1 14423 14423 142,892 0.07

>=10" Small 2 58 58 111,011 0.18

Medium 5 387 312 111,011 0.45

Large 6 3932 3600 111,011 0.54

Huge 2 17705 17705 111,011 0.18

*14 of the 31 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to "0".**Exposure comes from an analysis of PPL_MASTERS database as published on Feb 15, 2001.

Spill Statistics

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills, Categorized 1972-99

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.2A 
Table 1.3

Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 S M L 

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 13 130 50 120 104 60 1456 125 50 50 55 400 280 75 6 6 1 

STORAGE TANK RLS. 3 9935 7000 435 12 

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 1 58 1 

HURRICANE/STORM 2 75 66 2 

COLLISION 2 600 108 2 

ARCTICIce ForceFacility Low TemperatureOtherTOTALS 21 9 9 3 

N

CAUSE OF 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.3 
Table 1.4

Distribution and frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [well-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4well-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSU RE [well- years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4well-year

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 12 1.0024 33.33 1 0.0835STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 1 0.0835 66.67 2 0.1671STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 1 0.0835HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 2 0.1671COLLISION 11.11 2 0.1671ARCTICIce ForceFacility Low TemperatureOtherTOTALS 100.00 18 1.5036 100.00 3 0.2506

119714

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

119714

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.4 
Table 1.5

Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

PRODUCTION WELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.50 3.50 4.00 1.50 1.00

EXPLORATION WELLDRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.16 22.11 25.27 9.50 5.50

DEVELOPMENT WELLDRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.30 9.08 10.38 3.90 3.90

Spill >=150000 bbl EVENT

FREQUENCY UNIT

Small, Medium, and Large Spills

Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.5 
Table 1.5A

Historical Spills Data - Wells

Event Historical Frequency Experience 

Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 7.8 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present S

Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 1.5 x 10-4/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SDevelopment drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 3.9 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SExploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 5.5 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SBlowout during production and workovers involving some oil discharge >1 bbl 6.5 x 10-5/well-years U.S. OCS, 1964 - 1995 SL Ross 

Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 2.5 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present S

Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 1.0 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present S

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.5A 
Table 2.1

Fault Tree Analysis Input Rationalization - P/L

Shallow Medium Deep

External All (50) (50) (50) Low temperature and bio effects. Extra smart pigging.

Internal All (30) (30) (30) Extra smart pigging.

Anchor Impact All (90) (90) (90) Low traffic.

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (50) (50) (50) Low facility density.

Trawl/Fishing Net All (90) (90) (90) Low fishing activity.

Rig Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No marine traffic during ice season (8 months).

Work Boat Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No work boat traffic during ice season (8 months). 

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (80) (60) (40) Gradient low. Mud slide potential (gradient) increases with water 

depth.

Storm/ Hurricane All (50) (50) (50) Fewer severe storms.

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.3495 0.1747

0.0680 0.0340

0.6178 0.3089

0.1210 0.0605

1.3438 0.6719

0.2610 0.1305

0.3762 0.1881

0.0730 0.0365

0.0021

0.0012

0.0038

0.0020

0.0082

0.0045

0.0023

0.0012

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0016 0.0016 0.0016

0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0881 0.0438 0.0002

0.0174 0.0086 0.0001

0.1557 0.0775 0.0003

0.0309 0.0153 0.0002

0.3386 0.1686 0.0006

0.0667 0.0330 0.0003

0.0948 0.0472 0.0002

0.0187 0.0092 0.0001

Reason

Freq. Increment per 10^5 km-year

Spill 

Size

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Frequency Change %

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Only in shallow water. Average frequency of 4 scours/mile^2 and 100 

ft of bridge length with 10% conditional P/L failure probability. The 

same spill size distribution as above.

All water depth. The failure frequency is 20% of that of Strudel Scour.

Ice Gouging

Ice gouge failure rate calculated using exponential failure distribution 

for 2.5-m cover, 0.2-m average gouge depth, 4 gouges per km-yr 

flux. Spill size Distribution explained in text Section 2.5.2

S

M

L

H

Other

Thaw Settlement

Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

All water depth. The failure frequency is 10% of that of Strudel Scour.

To be assessed as 25% of above.

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

L

H

S

M

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.1 Milan Cerovsek 11/1/2002
Table 2.1A

Input - Pipeline

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected High

External All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Internal All (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45)

Anchor Impact All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Trawl/Fishing Net All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Rig Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Work Boat Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (50) (80) (90) (30) (60) (90) (20) (40) (60)

Storm/ Hurricane All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0030 0.0340 0.4145

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0045 0.0605 0.7335

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0105 0.1305 1.5950

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0030 0.0365 0.4465

S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

S 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044

M 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078

L 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170

H 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048

S 0.00162 0.01738 0.20869 0.00078 0.00859 0.10396 0.00003 0.00009 0.00033

M 0.00246 0.03092 0.36929 0.00117 0.01528 0.18396 0.00005 0.00015 0.00059

L 0.00571 0.06670 0.80303 0.00273 0.03296 0.40003 0.00011 0.00033 0.00128

H 0.00163 0.01865 0.22480 0.00078 0.00922 0.11198 0.00003 0.00009 0.00036

Other

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Frequency Increment per 10^5km-year

Ice Gouging

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Shallow Medium Deep

Frequency Change % Spill 

Size

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT21A Milan Cerovsek 11/1/2002
Table 2.2

FTA Input Rationalization Platforms

Shallow Medium Deep

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (50) (50) (50) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (30) (30) (30) High safety factor, Monitoring Programs

HURRICANE/STORM All (80) (80) (80) Less severe storms.

COLLISION All (90) (90) (90) Very low traffic density.

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.1447 0.2170 0.3256

0.0340 0.0510 0.0765

0.0255 0.0383 0.0575

0.0060 0.0090 0.0135

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0244 0.0316 0.0424

0.0134 0.0151 0.0177

0.0033 0.0046 0.0065

0.0014 0.0017 0.0022

Other

LH

SM

10% of above.

Assumed 10% of Historical Process Facilities release frequency and coresponding 

spill size distribution.

Ice Force

LH

SM

Assumed 1/10000 years ice force causes spill. 85% of the spills are SM.

Facility Low Temperature

LH

SM

Freq. Increment per 10^4 well-year

ARCTIC

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Reason Spill 

Size

Frequency Change %

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.2 Milan Cerovsek 11/1/2002
Table 2.2A

Input - Platforms

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected 

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) STORAGE TANK RLS. All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) HURRICANE/STORM All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) COLLISION All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) 

SM 0.003 0.034 0.340 0.005 0.051 0.510 0.008 0.077 

LH 0.001 0.006 0.060 0.001 0.009 0.090 0.001 0.014 

SM 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 

LH 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 

SM 0.005 0.013 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.066 0.006 0.018 

LH 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.001 0.002 

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

ARCTICIce Force

Shallow

Spill 

Size

Medium Deep

Frequency Change %

Frequency Increment per 10^4 well-year

Facility Low TemperatureOther

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT22A 
Table 2.3

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L -Small Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 16.67 0.467 (0.1711) 0.2955 21.21 (0.1711) 0.2955 20.93 (0.1711) 0.2955 20.65 0.300 (0.1101) 0.1902 20.50 (0.110) 0.190 External 5.56 0.156 (0.0778) 0.0778 5.58 (0.0778) 0.0778 5.51 (0.0778) 0.0778 5.43 0.100 (0.0500) 0.0500 5.39 (0.050) 0.050 Internal 11.11 0.311 (0.0933) 0.2177 15.63 (0.0933) 0.2177 15.43 (0.0933) 0.2177 15.21 0.200 (0.0601) 0.1401 15.11 (0.060) 0.140 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 1.089 (0.9798) 0.1089 7.81 (0.9798) 0.1089 7.71 (0.9798) 0.1089 7.61 0.701 (0.6306) 0.0701 7.55 (0.631) 0.070 Anchor Impact 33.33 0.933 (0.8398) 0.0933 6.70 (0.8398) 0.0933 6.61 (0.8398) 0.0933 6.52 0.601 (0.5405) 0.0601 6.47 (0.540) 0.060 Jackup Rig or Spud BargeTrawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.156 (0.1400) 0.0156 1.12 (0.1400) 0.0156 1.10 (0.1400) 0.0156 1.09 0.100 (0.0901) 0.0100 1.08 (0.090) 0.010 OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.467 (0.0933) 0.3732 26.79 (0.0933) 0.3732 26.44 (0.0933) 0.3732 26.08 0.300 (0.0601) 0.2402 25.90 (0.060) 0.240 Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.156 (0.0311) 0.1244 8.93 (0.0311) 0.1244 8.81 (0.0311) 0.1244 8.69 0.100 (0.0200) 0.0801 8.63 (0.020) 0.080 Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.311 (0.0622) 0.2488 17.86 (0.0622) 0.2488 17.63 (0.0622) 0.2488 17.39 0.200 (0.0400) 0.1601 17.26 (0.040) 0.160 MECHANICAL 11.11 0.311 0.3110 22.32 0.3110 22.04 0.3110 21.73 0.200 0.2002 21.58 0.200 Connection Failure 5.56 0.156 0.1555 11.16 0.1555 11.02 0.1555 10.87 0.100 0.1001 10.79 0.100 Material Failure 5.56 0.156 0.1555 11.16 0.1555 11.02 0.1555 10.87 0.100 0.1001 10.79 0.100 NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.311 (0.2488) 0.0622 4.46 (0.1866) 0.1244 8.81 (0.1244) 0.1866 13.04 0.200 (0.1601) 0.0400 4.32 (0.120) 0.080 Mud Slide 11.11 0.311 (0.2488) 0.0622 4.46 (0.1866) 0.1244 8.81 (0.1244) 0.1866 13.04 0.200 (0.1601) 0.0400 4.32 (0.120) 0.080 Storm/ HurricaneARCTIC 0.0869 0.0869 6.24 0.0429 0.0429 3.04 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0869 0.0869 9.37 0.043 0.043 Ice Gouging 0.0680 0.0680 4.88 0.0340 0.0340 2.41 0.0680 0.0680 7.33 0.0340 0.034Strudel Scour 0.0012 0.0012 0.08 0.0012 0.0012 0.12Upheaval Buckling 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.000Thaw Settlement 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.000Other 0.0174 0.0174 1.25 0.0086 0.0086 0.61 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0174 0.0174 1.87 0.0086 0.008UNKNOWN 5.56 0.156 0.1555 11.16 0.1555 11.02 0.1555 10.87 0.100 0.1001 10.79 0.100 TOTALS 100.00 2.799 (1.406) 1.393 100.00 (1.388) 1.411 100.00 (1.368) 1.431 100.00 1.802 (0.874) 0.928 100.00 (0.878) 0.924 

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

SMALL SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Mediu

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.3 
Table 2.4

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L - Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 16.67 0.816 (0.2994) 0.5171 21.19 (0.2994) 0.5171 20.92 (0.2994) 0.5171 20.65 0.751 (0.2752) 0.4754 21.07 (0.2752) 0.475External 5.56 0.272 (0.1361) 0.1361 5.58 (0.1361) 0.1361 5.51 (0.1361) 0.1361 5.43 0.250 (0.1251) 0.1251 5.54 (0.1251) 0.125Internal 11.11 0.544 (0.1633) 0.3810 15.61 (0.1633) 0.3810 15.42 (0.1633) 0.3810 15.21 0.500 (0.1501) 0.3503 15.52 (0.1501) 0.350THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 1.905 (1.7146) 0.1905 7.81 (1.7146) 0.1905 7.71 (1.7146) 0.1905 7.61 1.752 (1.5764) 0.1752 7.76 (1.5764) 0.175Anchor Impact 33.33 1.633 (1.4696) 0.1633 6.69 (1.4696) 0.1633 6.61 (1.4696) 0.1633 6.52 1.501 (1.3512) 0.1501 6.65 (1.3512) 0.150Jackup Rig or Spud BargeTrawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.272 (0.2449) 0.0272 1.12 (0.2449) 0.0272 1.10 (0.2449) 0.0272 1.09 0.250 (0.2252) 0.0250 1.11 (0.2252) 0.025OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.816 (0.1633) 0.6532 26.76 (0.1633) 0.6532 26.43 (0.1633) 0.6532 26.08 0.751 (0.1501) 0.6005 26.61 (0.1501) 0.600Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.272 (0.0544) 0.2177 8.92 (0.0544) 0.2177 8.81 (0.0544) 0.2177 8.69 0.250 (0.0500) 0.2002 8.87 (0.0500) 0.200Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.544 (0.1089) 0.4354 17.84 (0.1089) 0.4354 17.62 (0.1089) 0.4354 17.39 0.500 (0.1001) 0.4004 17.74 (0.1001) 0.400MECHANICAL 11.11 0.544 0.5443 22.30 0.5443 22.02 0.5443 21.73 0.500 0.5005 22.18 0.500Connection Failure 5.56 0.272 0.2722 11.15 0.2722 11.01 0.2722 10.87 0.250 0.2502 11.09 0.250Material Failure 5.56 0.272 0.2722 11.15 0.2722 11.01 0.2722 10.87 0.250 0.2502 11.09 0.250NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.544 (0.4354) 0.1089 4.46 (0.3266) 0.2177 8.81 (0.2177) 0.3266 13.04 0.500 (0.4004) 0.1001 4.44 (0.3003) 0.200Mud Slide 11.11 0.544 (0.4354) 0.1089 4.46 (0.3266) 0.2177 8.81 (0.2177) 0.3266 13.04 0.500 (0.4004) 0.1001 4.44 (0.3003) 0.200Storm/ HurricaneARCTIC 0.1546 0.1546 6.33 0.0764 0.0764 3.09 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.1546 0.1546 6.85 0.0764 0.076Ice Gouging 0.1210 0.1210 4.96 0.0605 0.0605 2.45 0.1210 0.1210 5.36 0.0605 0.060Strudel Scour 0.0020 0.0020 0.08 0.0020 0.0020 0.09Upheaval Buckling 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.000Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.000Other 0.0309 0.0309 1.27 0.0153 0.0153 0.62 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0309 0.0309 1.37 0.0153 0.015UNKNOWN 5.56 0.272 0.2722 11.15 0.2722 11.01 0.2722 10.87 0.250 0.2502 11.09 0.250TOTALS 100.00 4.899 (2.458) 2.441 100.00 (2.427) 2.471 100.00 (2.394) 2.505 100.00 4.504 (2.248) 2.256 100.00 (2.226) 2.278 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

MEDIUM SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Mediu

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.4 
Table 2.5

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L - Large Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 13.86 (0.065) 0.151 15.68 (0.065) 0.151 17.91 0.416 (0.125) 0.291 16.27 (0.125) 0.291 

ExternalInternal 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 13.86 (0.065) 0.151 15.68 (0.065) 0.151 17.91 0.416 (0.125) 0.291 16.27 (0.125) 0.291 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 1.938 (1.658) 0.280 25.75 (1.658) 0.280 29.11 (1.658) 0.280 33.27 3.742 (3.201) 0.540 30.22 (3.201) 0.540 Anchor Impact 30.77 0.861 (0.775) 0.086 7.92 (0.775) 0.086 8.96 (0.775) 0.086 10.24 1.663 (1.497) 0.166 9.30 (1.497) 0.166 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 9.90 (0.108) 0.108 11.20 (0.108) 0.108 12.80 0.416 (0.208) 0.208 11.62 (0.208) 0.208 Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.861 (0.775) 0.086 7.92 (0.775) 0.086 8.96 (0.775) 0.086 10.24 1.663 (1.497) 0.166 9.30 (1.497) 0.166 OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 15.85 (0.043) 0.172 17.92 (0.043) 0.172 20.47 0.416 (0.083) 0.333 18.60 (0.083) 0.333 Rig AnchoringWork Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 15.85 (0.043) 0.172 17.92 (0.043) 0.172 20.47 0.416 (0.083) 0.333 18.60 (0.083) 0.333 MECHANICALConnection FailureMaterial FailureNATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.431 (0.280) 0.151 13.86 (0.237) 0.194 20.16 (0.194) 0.237 28.15 0.832 (0.540) 0.291 16.27 (0.457) 0.374 Mud Slide 7.69 0.215 (0.172) 0.043 3.96 (0.129) 0.086 8.96 (0.086) 0.129 15.35 0.416 (0.333) 0.083 4.65 (0.249) 0.166 Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 9.90 (0.108) 0.108 11.20 (0.108) 0.108 12.80 0.416 (0.208) 0.208 11.62 (0.208) 0.208 ARCTIC 0.333 0.333 30.68 0.165 0.165 17.14 0.002 0.002 0.20 0.333 0.333 18.64 0.165 0.165 Ice Gouging 0.2610 0.2610 24.01 0.1305 0.1305 13.57 0.2610 0.2610 14.59 0.1305 0.1305 Strudel Scour 0.0045 0.0045 0.41 0.0045 0.0045 0.25Upheaval Buckling 0.0009 0.0009 0.08 0.0009 0.0009 0.09 0.0009 0.0009 0.11 0.0009 0.0009 0.05 0.0009 0.0009 Thaw Settlement 0.0004 0.0004 0.04 0.0004 0.0004 0.05 0.0004 0.0004 0.05 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 Other 0.0667 0.0667 6.14 0.0330 0.0330 3.43 0.0003 0.0003 0.04 0.0667 0.0667 3.73 0.0330 0.0330 UNKNOWNTOTALS 100.00 2.799 (1.712) 1.087 100.00 (1.838) 0.962 100.00 (1.958) 0.841 100.00 5.405 (3.616) 1.789 100.00 (3.702) 1.703 

Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

LARGE SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.5 
Table 2.6

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L - Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 13.38 (0.016) 0.038 15.36 (0.016) 0.038 17.91 0.139 (0.042) 0.097 16.77 (0.042) 0.097 

ExternalInternal 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 13.38 (0.016) 0.038 15.36 (0.016) 0.038 17.91 0.139 (0.042) 0.097 16.77 (0.042) 0.097 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 0.484 (0.415) 0.070 24.84 (0.415) 0.070 28.53 (0.415) 0.070 33.26 1.247 (1.067) 0.180 31.15 (1.067) 0.180 Anchor Impact 30.77 0.215 (0.194) 0.022 7.64 (0.194) 0.022 8.78 (0.194) 0.022 10.23 0.554 (0.499) 0.055 9.59 (0.499) 0.055 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 9.56 (0.027) 0.027 10.97 (0.027) 0.027 12.79 0.139 (0.069) 0.069 11.98 (0.069) 0.069 Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.215 (0.194) 0.022 7.64 (0.194) 0.022 8.78 (0.194) 0.022 10.23 0.554 (0.499) 0.055 9.59 (0.499) 0.055 OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 15.29 (0.011) 0.043 17.56 (0.011) 0.043 20.47 0.139 (0.028) 0.111 19.17 (0.028) 0.111 Rig AnchoringWork Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 15.29 (0.011) 0.043 17.56 (0.011) 0.043 20.47 0.139 (0.028) 0.111 19.17 (0.028) 0.111 MECHANICALConnection FailureMaterial FailureNATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.108 (0.070) 0.038 13.38 (0.059) 0.048 19.75 (0.048) 0.059 28.14 0.277 (0.180) 0.097 16.77 (0.152) 0.125 Mud Slide 7.69 0.054 (0.043) 0.011 3.82 (0.032) 0.022 8.78 (0.022) 0.032 15.35 0.139 (0.111) 0.028 4.79 (0.083) 0.055 Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 9.56 (0.027) 0.027 10.97 (0.027) 0.027 12.79 0.139 (0.069) 0.069 11.98 (0.069) 0.069 ARCTIC 0.093 0.093 33.11 0.046 0.046 18.79 0.000 0.000 0.22 0.093 0.093 16.13 0.046 0.046 Ice Gouging 0.0730 0.0730 25.92 0.0365 0.0365 14.88 0.0730 0.0730 12.62 0.0365 0.0365 Strudel Scour 0.0012 0.0012 0.44 0.0012 0.0012 0.22Upheaval Buckling 0.0002 0.0002 0.09 0.0002 0.0002 0.10 0.0002 0.0002 0.12 0.0002 0.0002 0.04 0.0002 0.0002 Thaw Settlement 0.0001 0.0001 0.04 0.0001 0.0001 0.05 0.0001 0.0001 0.06 0.0001 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.0001 Other 0.0187 0.0187 6.62 0.0092 0.0092 3.76 0.0001 0.0001 0.04 0.0187 0.0187 3.23 0.0092 0.0092 UNKNOWNTOTALS 100.00 0.700 (0.418) 0.282 100.00 (0.455) 0.245 100.00 (0.489) 0.210 100.00 1.802 (1.223) 0.578 100.00 (1.243) 0.559 

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

HUGE SPILL

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >=10"

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

Shallow Medium 

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.6 
Table 2.7

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency Platforms -Small and Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 1.002 (0.501) 0.501 57.89 (0.501) 0.5012 56.67 (0.501) 0.5012 54.9

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.75 (0.025) 0.0585 6.61 (0.025) 0.0585 6.4

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.75 (0.025) 0.0585 6.61 (0.025) 0.0585 6.4

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 0.167 (0.084) 0.084 9.65 (0.084) 0.0835 9.44 (0.084) 0.0835 9.15

COLLISION 11.11 0.167 (0.150) 0.017 1.93 (0.150) 0.0167 1.89 (0.150) 0.0167 1.83

ARCTIC 0.147 0.147 17.03 0.166 0.1661 18.78 0.194 0.1942 21.2Ice Force 0.034 0.034 3.93 0.051 0.0510 5.77 0.077 0.0765 8.38Facility Low Temperature 0.100 0.100 11.55 0.100 0.1000 11.31 0.100 0.1000 10.9Other 0.013 0.013 1.55 0.015 0.0151 1.71 0.018 0.0177 1.93TOTALS 100.00 1.504 (0.638) 0.866 100.00 (0.619) 0.8845 100.00 (0.591) 0.9125 100.0

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

4

well-year

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.7 
Table 2.8

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency Platforms -Large and Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 33.33 0.0835 (0.042) 0.0418 23.99 (0.042) 0.0418 23.54 (0.042) 0.0418 22.9

STORAGE TANK RLS. 66.67 0.1671 (0.050) 0.1169 67.17 (0.050) 0.1169 65.92 (0.050) 0.1169 64.1

STRUCTURAL FAILUREHURRICANE/STORMCOLLISIONARCTIC 0.015 0.0154 8.84 0.019 0.0187 10.54 0.024 0.0237 12.9Ice Force 0.006 0.0060 3.45 0.009 0.0090 5.07 0.014 0.0135 7.40Facility Low Temperature 0.008 0.0080 4.59 0.008 0.0080 4.51 0.008 0.0080 4.39Other 0.001 0.0014 0.80 0.002 0.0017 0.96 0.002 0.0022 1.18TOTALS 100.00 0.2506 (0.076) 0.1741 100.00 (0.073) 0.1774 100.00 (0.068) 0.1824 100.0

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

4

well-year

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.8 
Table 2.9

Artic Frequency - Wells

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTIONWELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.000 

EXPLORATIONWELL DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.160 3.160 3.160 3.160 22.110 22.110 22.110 22.110 9.500 9.500 9.500 9.500 5.500 

DEVELOPMENTWELL DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.300 1.300 1.300 1.300 9.080 9.080 9.080 9.080 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 

EVENT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium

Large Spill

FREQUENCY UNIT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl

Shallow Medium Deep Deep

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Small and Medium Spills

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.9 
Table 2.10

Average Spill Distribution

Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Expected High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low 

P/L Dia <10" Spill 1 58 99 52 100 226 999 485 1000 4436 9999 5279 10000 P/L Dia > 10" Spill 1 58 99 52 100 387 999 516 1000 3932 9999 5176 10000 Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected

Platform Spill 1 158 999 431 1000 6130 10000 5631Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low 

Well Blowout Spill 1 500 999 500 1000 4500 9999 5292 10000 20000 150000 68349 150000 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

PLATFORM SPILLSWELL BLOWOUT SPILLS

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl 

PIPELINE SPILLS

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill 

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.10 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 2.799 1.802 Historical Frequency

S 1.393 0.928 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.411 0.924 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.431 0.921 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.467 0.300 H 1.089 0.701 H 0.467 0.300 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.156 0.100 

S 0.295 0.190 S 0.109 0.070 S 0.373 0.240 S 0.311 0.200 S 0.062 0.040 S 0.156 0.100 

M 0.295 0.190 M 0.109 0.070 M 0.373 0.240 M 0.311 0.200 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.156 0.100 

D 0.295 0.190 D 0.109 0.070 D 0.373 0.240 D 0.311 0.200 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.156 0.100 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.156 0.100 H 0.933 0.601 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.000 

S 0.078 0.050 S 0.093 0.060 S 0.124 0.080 S 0.156 0.100 S 0.062 0.040 S 0.068 

M 0.078 0.050 M 0.093 0.060 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.156 0.100 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.034 

D 0.078 0.050 D 0.093 0.060 D 0.124 0.080 D 0.156 0.100 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.311 0.200 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 

S 0.218 0.140 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.249 0.160 S 0.156 0.100 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.001 

M 0.218 0.140 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.249 0.160 M 0.156 0.100 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 

D 0.218 0.140 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.249 0.160 D 0.156 0.100 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.156 0.100 

S 0.016 0.010 

M 0.016 0.010 

D 0.016 0.010 

Figure 2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spill

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Small Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.1 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 4.899 4.504 Historical Frequency

S 2.441 2.256 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 2.471 2.278 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 2.505 2.303 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.816 0.751 H 1.905 1.752 H 0.816 0.751 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.272 0.250 

S 0.517 0.475 S 0.191 0.175 S 0.653 0.601 S 0.544 0.500 S 0.109 0.100 S 0.272 0.250 

M 0.517 0.475 M 0.191 0.175 M 0.653 0.601 M 0.544 0.500 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.272 0.250 

D 0.517 0.475 D 0.191 0.175 D 0.653 0.601 D 0.544 0.500 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.272 0.250 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.272 0.250 H 1.633 1.501 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.000 

S 0.136 0.125 S 0.163 0.150 S 0.218 0.200 S 0.272 0.250 S 0.109 0.100 S 0.121 

M 0.136 0.125 M 0.163 0.150 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.272 0.250 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.061 

D 0.136 0.125 D 0.163 0.150 D 0.218 0.200 D 0.272 0.250 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.544 0.500 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 

S 0.381 0.350 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.435 0.400 S 0.272 0.250 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.002 

M 0.381 0.350 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.435 0.400 M 0.272 0.250 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 

D 0.381 0.350 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.435 0.400 D 0.272 0.250 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.272 0.250 

S 0.027 0.025 

M 0.027 0.025 

D 0.027 0.025 

Figure 2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spill

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Medium Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF2.2 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 2.799 5.405 Historical Frequency

S 1.087 1.789 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.962 1.703 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.841 1.623 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.215 0.416 H 1.938 3.742 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.431 0.832 H 0.000 0.000 

S 0.151 0.291 S 0.280 0.540 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.151 0.291 S 0.000 0.000 

M 0.151 0.291 M 0.280 0.540 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.194 0.374 M 0.000 0.000 

D 0.151 0.291 D 0.280 0.540 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.237 0.457 D 0.000 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.861 1.663 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.086 0.166 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.043 0.083 S 0.261 

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.086 0.166 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.086 0.166 M 0.131 

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.086 0.166 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.129 0.249 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.215 0.416 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 

S 0.151 0.291 S 0.108 0.208 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.108 0.208 S 0.004 

M 0.151 0.291 M 0.108 0.208 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.108 0.208 M 0.000 

D 0.151 0.291 D 0.108 0.208 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.108 0.208 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.861 1.663 

S 0.086 0.166 

M 0.086 0.166 

D 0.086 0.166 

Figure 2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spill

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Large Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.3 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 0.700 1.802 Historical Frequency

S 0.282 0.578 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.245 0.559 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.210 0.541 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.054 0.139 H 0.484 1.247 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.108 0.277 H 0.000 0.000 

S 0.038 0.097 S 0.070 0.180 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.038 0.097 S 0.000 0.000 

M 0.038 0.097 M 0.070 0.180 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.048 0.125 M 0.000 0.000 

D 0.038 0.097 D 0.070 0.180 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.059 0.152 D 0.000 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.554 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.022 0.055 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.011 0.028 S 0.073 

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.022 0.055 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.022 0.055 M 0.037 

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.022 0.055 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.032 0.083 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.054 0.139 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 

S 0.038 0.097 S 0.027 0.069 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.027 0.069 S 0.001 

M 0.038 0.097 M 0.027 0.069 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.027 0.069 M 0.000 

D 0.038 0.097 D 0.027 0.069 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.027 0.069 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.215 0.554 

S 0.022 0.055 

M 0.022 0.055 

D 0.022 0.055 

Figure 2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spill

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Huge Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.4 
SM LH Spill Size

Note : All Values per 10000 well-year H 1.504 0.251 Historical Frequency

S 0.866 0.174 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.884 0.177 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.913 0.182 Deep Water Depth Frequency

SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH

H 1.002 0.084 H 0.084 0.167 H 0.084 0.000 H 0.167 0.000 H 0.167 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.501 0.042 S 0.058 0.117 S 0.058 0.000 S 0.084 0.000 S 0.017 0.000 S 0.147 0.015

M 0.501 0.042 M 0.058 0.117 M 0.058 0.000 M 0.084 0.000 M 0.017 0.000 M 0.166 0.019

D 0.501 0.042 D 0.058 0.117 D 0.058 0.000 D 0.084 0.000 D 0.017 0.000 D 0.194 0.024

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.034 0.

M 0.051 0.

D 0.077 0.

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.100 0.

M 0.100 0.

D 0.100 0.

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.013 0.

M 0.015 0.

D 0.018 0.

Figure 2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spill

PROCESS FACILITY RLS.

Facility Low Temper

STORAGE TANK RLS. STRUCTURAL FAILURE HURRICANE/STORM COLLISION ARCTIC

Platform Spill

Other

Ice Force

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.5 
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2 1

Shallow 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 113333 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Shallow 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 39.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 39.8

Shallow 2 46 22 20 20 36.3

Medium 113333 1

Deep

Total 1 3 3 49 3 25 1 20 20 36.3

Shallow 2 46 22 10 30 10 30 33.4

Medium 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep

Total 3 10 59 4 29 1 20 40 20 40 44.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 27.6

Medium 1 10 23 4 11 1 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 40 40 47.5

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 22.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 42.6

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 18.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 38.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 15.5

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 16.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 31.9

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 12.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 13.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 26.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 10.5

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 11.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 21.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 8.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 9.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 17.9

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells

2012

2013

2014

2015

2008

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

2007

2004

2005

2006

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.1 11/1/2002
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 7.3

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 7.6

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 14.9

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 6.1

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 6.3

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 12.4

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 3.0

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 5.2

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 30 -10 30 8.2

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 2.6

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 30 30 6.9

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -10 10 -10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.5

Deep

Total -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 3.5

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.0

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 3.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 2.6

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 2.6

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -1 -23 -11 -10 -10

Deep

Total -1 -23 -11 -20 -20

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.1 11/1/2002
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep 1 1

Total 2 2 113333 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 15 15 15 15 10.9

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 1 10 13 4 7 1 15 15 15 15 10.9

Shallow 1 10 23 4 11 1 15 15 19.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 23 4 11 1 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Medium 113333 1

Deep

Total 1 2 3 26 3 14 1 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 10 25 10 25 16.4

Medium 1 2 13 16 7 10 2 5 5 10 10 15 15 18.4

Deep

Total 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 20 35 25 40 34.8

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 13.5

Medium 2 20 36 8 18 2 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 20 59 8 29 2 5 35 40 44.2

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 11.2

Medium 2 10 46 4 22 1 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 5 35 40 41.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 9.2

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 39.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 7.6

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 38.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 6.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 26.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 32.7

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.2 11/1/2002
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth Year ProductionMMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 5.2

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 22.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 27.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 4.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 19.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 23.8

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 3.5

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 16.8

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 20.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 2.9

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 14.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 17.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 2.4

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 12.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 14.8

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 10 -15 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 10.7

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 5 -15 20 -15 25 10.7

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 9.2

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 9.2

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 7.9

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 7.9

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 6.8

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 6.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 5.8

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 5.0

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 4.3

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 3.7

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 3.7

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -2 -46 -22 -5 -10 -15

Deep

Total -2 -46 -22 -5 -20 -25

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.2 11/1/2002
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 114444 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 114444 1

Shallow 15 15 15 15

Medium 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 15 15 20 20 30.8

Deep

Total 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 30 30 35 35 30.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 30 35 38.6

2019

2020

2021

2022

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" WaterDepth

2016

2017

2018

Exploration

Wells

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells Sum >=10"

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 34.0

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 34.0

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 29.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 29.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 26.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 26.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 23.2

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 23.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 20.4

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 20.4

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 17.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 17.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 15.8

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 15.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 13.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 13.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 12.2

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 12.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 10.8

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 10.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 9.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 9.5

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 8.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2 2

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 2 2 2

Shallow 2 1 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 2 2 113333 1

Shallow 1 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 1 2 2

Deep

Total 2 2 3 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Shallow 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium 2 2

Deep 1 1

Total 3 3 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 3 20 59 8 29 2 15 35 15 35 50.7

Medium 1 3 2

Deep 1 1

Total 2 3 3 3 20 59 8 29 2 15 35 15 35 50.7

Shallow 3 10 69 4 33 1 35 35 56.2

Medium 4 2 113333 1

Deep

Total 4 2 1 4 13 72 7 36 2 35 35 56.2

Shallow 3 69 33 10 45 10 45 53.3

Medium 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 4 10 82 4 40 1 20 55 20 55 64.2

Shallow 3 69 33 45 45 47.5

Medium 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 1 5 13 95 7 47 2 55 55 67.4

Shallow 3 69 33 10 55 10 55 39.1

Medium 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 10 20 15 25 38.3

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 6 13 108 7 54 2 5 5 20 75 25 80 77.4

Shallow 3 69 33 55 55 32.3

Medium 1 4 24 63 12 33 3 5 20 25 50.6

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 7 24 132 12 66 3 5 75 80 82.9

Shallow 3 69 33 15 70 15 70 26.7

Medium 1 5 24 87 12 45 3 5 10 15 35 20 45 77.9

Deep

Total 1 8 24 156 12 78 3 5 10 30 105 35 115 104.6

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 22.0

Medium 5 20 107 8 53 2 10 35 45 82.8

Deep

Total 8 20 176 8 86 2 10 105 115 104.8

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 18.1

Medium 5 20 127 9 62 2 10 35 45 80.5

Deep

Total 8 20 196 9 95 2 10 105 115 98.6

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 15.0

Medium 5 10 137 5 67 1 10 35 45 74.2

Deep

Total 8 10 206 5 100 1 10 105 115 89.2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2015

2016

2017

2018

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

Sum All

2008

2009

Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.4 11/1/2002
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Year Sum All Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 12.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 68.9

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 81.4

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 10.4

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 64.4

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 74.8

Shallow -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 60 -10 60 6.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 56.0

Deep

Total -1 7 -23 183 -11 89 10 -10 95 -10 105 62.5

Shallow 2 46 22 60 60 5.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 48.6

Deep

Total 7 183 89 10 95 105 54.1

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 50 -10 50 2.4

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 42.2

Deep

Total -1 6 -23 160 -11 78 10 -10 85 -10 95 44.6

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 35 -15 35

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 36.9

Deep

Total -1 5 -23 137 -11 67 10 -15 70 -15 80 36.9

Shallow 35 35

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 32.2

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 70 80 32.2

Shallow -10 25 -10 25

Medium -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -10 25 -10 35 25.8

Deep

Total -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -20 50 -20 60 25.8

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 22.6

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 22.6

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 19.7

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 19.7

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 17.2

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 17.2

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 15.1

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 15.1

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 13.2

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 13.2

Shallow -10 15 -10 15

Medium -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -10 15 -15 20 8.3

Deep

Total -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -20 30 -25 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.4 11/1/2002
Table T.3.5

Chukchi Sea Base Case 1998-2010

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 2

Total 2 2 0

Shallow 5555

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 135 135 135 135

Total 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 2 8 8 135 135

Total 2 2 8 8 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 4 40 48 135 135

Total 2 4 40 48 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 6 60 108 135 135

Total 2 6 60 108 200 200 101

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 80 188 135 135

Total 6 80 188 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 26 214 135 135

Total 6 26 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 119

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 103

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 92

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2002

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.5 11/1/2002
Table T.3.6

Chukchi Sea High Case 1998-2010

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 3 1

Total 3 1 0

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 1

Total 2 1 0

Shallow 5555

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 2 2 2 135 135 135 135

Total 2 2 2 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 8 50 50 135 135

Total 6 8 50 50 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 4 12 80 130 135 135

Total 4 12 80 130 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 270 135 135

Total 12 140 270 200 200 223

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 410 135 135

Total 12 140 410 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 72 482 135 135

Total 12 72 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 262

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 227

2007

2008

2009

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

Water

Depth

2002

Year

1998

1999

2000

2001

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10" Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

201620092010201120122013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2015200820042005200620072014Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 30 0.447 0.03 1.093 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 30 0.447 0.03 1.093 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total

20362037203820222023203520272028202920302031203220332034202420252026

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

1.651.651.651.653.303.303.303.303.303.304.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.53

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.533.301.594.893.301.594.891.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.24

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.149 0.014 0.009 0.363 0.033 0.141 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 2011 19.9 0.149 0.008 0.009 0.363 0.018 0.141 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 2012 30.8 0.299 0.010 0.017 0.726 0.024 0.281 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 2013 39.8 0.299 0.008 0.017 0.726 0.018 0.281 1.025 0.026 0.298 0.576 0.014 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 2014 36.3 0.299 0.008 0.017 0.726 0.020 0.281 1.025 0.028 0.298 0.576 0.016 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 2015 44.3 0.596 0.013 0.035 1.456 0.033 0.563 2.052 0.046 0.598 1.137 0.026 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 2016 47.5 0.596 0.013 0.035 1.456 0.031 0.563 2.052 0.043 0.598 1.137 0.024 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 2017 42.6 0.596 0.014 0.035 1.456 0.034 0.563 2.052 0.048 0.598 1.137 0.027 4.472 0.369 0.009 6.535 3.559 2018 38.7 0.596 0.015 0.035 1.456 0.038 0.563 2.052 0.053 0.598 1.137 0.029 4.472 0.369 0.010 6.535 3.559 2019 31.9 0.596 0.019 0.035 1.456 0.046 0.563 2.052 0.064 0.598 1.137 0.036 4.472 0.369 0.012 6.535 3.559 2020 26.3 0.596 0.023 0.035 1.456 0.055 0.563 2.052 0.078 0.598 1.137 0.043 4.472 0.369 0.014 6.535 3.559 2021 21.7 0.596 0.027 0.035 1.456 0.067 0.563 2.052 0.095 0.598 1.137 0.052 4.472 0.369 0.017 6.535 3.559 2022 17.9 0.596 0.033 0.035 1.456 0.081 0.563 2.052 0.115 0.598 1.137 0.064 4.472 0.369 0.021 6.535 3.559 2023 14.9 0.596 0.040 0.035 1.456 0.098 0.563 2.052 0.138 0.598 1.137 0.076 4.472 0.369 0.025 6.535 3.559 2024 12.4 0.596 0.048 0.035 1.456 0.117 0.563 2.052 0.165 0.598 1.137 0.092 4.472 0.369 0.030 6.535 3.559 2025 8.2 0.447 0.055 0.026 1.093 0.133 0.423 1.540 0.188 0.449 0.850 0.104 3.341 0.276 0.034 4.887 2.666 2026 6.9 0.447 0.065 0.026 1.093 0.158 0.423 1.540 0.223 0.449 0.850 0.123 3.341 0.276 0.040 4.887 2.666 2027 3.5 0.298 0.085 0.017 0.730 0.208 0.282 1.028 0.294 0.300 0.562 0.161 2.209 0.183 0.052 3.240 1.772 2028 3.0 0.298 0.099 0.017 0.730 0.243 0.282 1.028 0.343 0.300 0.562 0.187 2.209 0.183 0.061 3.240 1.772 2029 2.6 0.298 0.115 0.017 0.730 0.281 0.282 1.028 0.395 0.300 0.562 0.216 2.209 0.183 0.070 3.240 1.772 203020312032203320342035203620372038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills A

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.2 
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.866 0.260 0.04 0.174 0.052 0.32

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 3 0.260 0.04 0.052 0.32

Shallow 1 13 0.866 1.126 0.18 0.174 0.226 1.39

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 13 1.126 0.18 0.226 1.39

Shallow 2 26 0.866 2.251 0.36 0.174 0.453 2.77

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 26 2.251 0.36 0.453 2.77

Shallow 2 36 0.866 3.117 0.49 0.174 0.627 3.84

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 36 3.117 0.49 0.627 3.84

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 3.983 0.63 0.801 4.91

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 3 0.884 0.265 0.04 0.177 0.053 0.33

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 49 4.248 0.67 0.854 5.24

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 13 0.884 1.150 0.18 0.177 0.231 1.41

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 59 5.132 0.81 1.032 6.32

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.026 0.64 0.809 4.96

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.026 0.64 0.809 4.96

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 2.034 0.32 0.408 2.50

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 2.034 0.32 0.408 2.50

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 2.034 0.32 0.408 2.50

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

2010 10.9 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

2011 19.9 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

2012 30.8 3.117 0.101 0.492 0.627 0.020 3.842 3.744 0.122 4.335

2013 39.8 3.983 0.100 0.629 0.801 0.020 4.910 4.783 0.120 5.539

2014 36.3 4.248 0.117 0.671 0.854 0.024 5.236 5.102 0.141 5.907

2015 44.3 5.132 0.116 0.811 1.032 0.023 6.323 6.164 0.139 7.134

2016 47.5 6.017 0.127 0.951 1.209 0.025 7.411 7.226 0.152 8.362

2017 42.6 6.017 0.141 0.951 1.209 0.028 7.411 7.226 0.170 8.362

2018 38.7 6.017 0.155 0.951 1.209 0.031 7.411 7.226 0.187 8.362

2019 31.9 6.017 0.189 0.951 1.209 0.038 7.411 7.226 0.227 8.362

2020 26.3 6.017 0.229 0.951 1.209 0.046 7.411 7.226 0.275 8.362

2021 21.7 6.017 0.277 0.951 1.209 0.056 7.411 7.226 0.333 8.362

2022 17.9 6.017 0.336 0.951 1.209 0.068 7.411 7.226 0.404 8.362

2023 14.9 6.017 0.404 0.951 1.209 0.081 7.411 7.226 0.485 8.362

2024 12.4 6.017 0.485 0.951 1.209 0.097 7.411 7.226 0.583 8.362

2025 8.2 4.026 0.491 0.636 0.809 0.099 4.956 4.834 0.590 5.592

2026 6.9 4.026 0.583 0.636 0.809 0.117 4.956 4.834 0.701 5.592

2027 3.5 2.034 0.581 0.321 0.408 0.117 2.501 2.442 0.698 2.823

2028 3.0 2.034 0.678 0.321 0.408 0.136 2.501 2.442 0.814 2.823

2029 2.6 2.034 0.782 0.321 0.408 0.157 2.501 2.442 0.939 2.823

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 36 0.500 0.180 0.09 3.500 1.260 5.67 1.500 0.540 10.80 1.000 0.360 72.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 36 0.180 0.09 1.260 5.67 0.540 10.80 0.360 72.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 49 0.245 0.12 1.715 7.72 0.735 14.70 0.490 98.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

2013 39.8 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

2014 36.3 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

2015 44.3 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2016 47.5 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

2017 42.6 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

2018 38.7 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

2019 31.9 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

2020 26.3 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

2021 21.7 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

2022 17.9 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

2023 14.9 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

2024 12.4 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

2025 8.2 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

2026 6.9 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

2027 3.5 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

2028 3.0 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

2029 2.6 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2016 47.5

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2016 47.5

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.306 0.064 0.192 1.788 0.225 19.800 0.724 21.652

Pipeline 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 0.082 2.928

Platforms 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 1.729 0.159 0.372 0.787 0.072 5.384 0.574 0.053 48.708 3.090 0.283 54.464

Pipeline 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 0.045 2.928

Platforms 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 2.893 0.145 0.570 1.130 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.448 4.767 0.240 70.019

Pipeline 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 0.058 5.857

Platforms 3.117 0.101 0.492 0.627 0.020 3.842 3.744 0.122 4.335

Production Wells 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 4.321 0.140 0.881 1.742 0.057 11.775 1.086 0.035 86.095 7.150 0.232 98.751

Pipeline 1.025 0.026 0.298 0.576 0.014 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 0.045 5.857

Platforms 3.983 0.100 0.629 0.801 0.020 4.910 4.783 0.120 5.539

Production Wells 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.237 0.132 1.043 2.066 0.052 14.418 1.336 0.034 109.095 8.640 0.217 124.555

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.025 0.028 0.298 0.576 0.016 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 0.049 5.857

Platforms 4.248 0.117 0.671 0.854 0.024 5.236 5.102 0.141 5.907

Production Wells 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.518 0.152 1.092 2.165 0.060 15.217 1.411 0.039 115.995 9.093 0.251 132.304

Pipeline 2.052 0.046 0.598 1.137 0.026 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 0.080 11.605

Platforms 5.132 0.116 0.811 1.032 0.023 6.323 6.164 0.139 7.134

Production Wells 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 7.480 0.169 1.556 3.054 0.069 20.088 1.844 0.042 142.235 12.378 0.279 163.879

Pipeline 2.052 0.043 0.598 1.137 0.024 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 0.075 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.127 0.951 1.209 0.025 7.411 7.226 0.152 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.177 1.721 3.381 0.071 22.751 2.094 0.044 165.235 13.890 0.292 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.048 0.598 1.137 0.027 4.472 0.369 0.009 6.535 3.559 0.084 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.141 0.951 1.209 0.028 7.411 7.226 0.170 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.198 1.721 3.381 0.079 22.751 2.094 0.049 165.235 13.890 0.326 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.053 0.598 1.137 0.029 4.472 0.369 0.010 6.535 3.559 0.092 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.155 0.951 1.209 0.031 7.411 7.226 0.187 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.217 1.721 3.381 0.087 22.751 2.094 0.054 165.235 13.890 0.359 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.064 0.598 1.137 0.036 4.472 0.369 0.012 6.535 3.559 0.112 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.189 0.951 1.209 0.038 7.411 7.226 0.227 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.264 1.721 3.381 0.106 22.751 2.094 0.066 165.235 13.890 0.435 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.078 0.598 1.137 0.043 4.472 0.369 0.014 6.535 3.559 0.135 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.229 0.951 1.209 0.046 7.411 7.226 0.275 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.320 1.721 3.381 0.129 22.751 2.094 0.080 165.235 13.890 0.528 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.095 0.598 1.137 0.052 4.472 0.369 0.017 6.535 3.559 0.164 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.277 0.951 1.209 0.056 7.411 7.226 0.333 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.388 1.721 3.381 0.156 22.751 2.094 0.097 165.235 13.890 0.640 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.115 0.598 1.137 0.064 4.472 0.369 0.021 6.535 3.559 0.199 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.336 0.951 1.209 0.068 7.411 7.226 0.404 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.470 1.721 3.381 0.189 22.751 2.094 0.117 165.235 13.890 0.776 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.138 0.598 1.137 0.076 4.472 0.369 0.025 6.535 3.559 0.239 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.404 0.951 1.209 0.081 7.411 7.226 0.485 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.565 1.721 3.381 0.227 22.751 2.094 0.141 165.235 13.890 0.932 189.706

2016 47.5

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.052 0.165 0.598 1.137 0.092 4.472 0.369 0.030 6.535 3.559 0.287 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.485 0.951 1.209 0.097 7.411 7.226 0.583 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.679 1.721 3.381 0.273 22.751 2.094 0.169 165.235 13.890 1.120 189.706

Pipeline 1.540 0.188 0.449 0.850 0.104 3.341 0.276 0.034 4.887 2.666 0.325 8.677

Platforms 4.026 0.491 0.636 0.809 0.099 4.956 4.834 0.590 5.592

Production Wells 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.795 0.707 1.200 2.348 0.286 15.542 1.426 0.174 110.687 9.570 1.167 127.429

Pipeline 1.540 0.223 0.449 0.850 0.123 3.341 0.276 0.040 4.887 2.666 0.386 8.677

Platforms 4.026 0.583 0.636 0.809 0.117 4.956 4.834 0.701 5.592

Production Wells 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.795 0.840 1.200 2.348 0.340 15.542 1.426 0.207 110.687 9.570 1.387 127.429

Pipeline 1.028 0.294 0.300 0.562 0.161 2.209 0.183 0.052 3.240 1.772 0.506 5.748

Platforms 2.034 0.581 0.321 0.408 0.117 2.501 2.442 0.698 2.823

Production Wells 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.177 0.908 0.679 1.315 0.376 8.333 0.758 0.217 56.140 5.250 1.500 65.151

Pipeline 1.028 0.343 0.300 0.562 0.187 2.209 0.183 0.061 3.240 1.772 0.591 5.748

Platforms 2.034 0.678 0.321 0.408 0.136 2.501 2.442 0.814 2.823

Production Wells 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.177 1.059 0.679 1.315 0.438 8.333 0.758 0.253 56.140 5.250 1.750 65.151

Pipeline 1.028 0.395 0.300 0.562 0.216 2.209 0.183 0.070 3.240 1.772 0.682 5.748

Platforms 2.034 0.782 0.321 0.408 0.157 2.501 2.442 0.939 2.823

Production Wells 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.177 1.222 0.679 1.315 0.506 8.333 0.758 0.292 56.140 5.250 2.019 65.151

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2008 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2009 0.31 0.064 0.19 1.788 0.225 19.80 0.724 21.652

2010 10.9 1.73 0.159 0.372 0.79 0.072 5.384 0.574 0.053 48.71 3.090 0.283 54.464

2011 19.9 2.89 0.145 0.570 1.13 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.45 4.767 0.240 70.019

2012 30.8 4.32 0.140 0.881 1.74 0.057 11.775 1.086 0.035 86.10 7.150 0.232 98.751

2013 39.8 5.24 0.132 1.043 2.07 0.052 14.418 1.336 0.034 109.10 8.640 0.217 124.555

2014 36.3 5.52 0.152 1.092 2.16 0.060 15.217 1.411 0.039 116.00 9.093 0.251 132.304

2015 44.3 7.48 0.169 1.556 3.05 0.069 20.088 1.844 0.042 142.23 12.378 0.279 163.879

2016 47.5 8.41 0.177 1.721 3.38 0.071 22.751 2.094 0.044 165.23 13.890 0.292 189.706

2017 42.6 8.41 0.198 1.721 3.38 0.079 22.751 2.094 0.049 165.23 13.890 0.326 189.706

2018 38.7 8.41 0.217 1.721 3.38 0.087 22.751 2.094 0.054 165.23 13.890 0.359 189.706

2019 31.9 8.41 0.264 1.721 3.38 0.106 22.751 2.094 0.066 165.23 13.890 0.435 189.706

2020 26.3 8.41 0.320 1.721 3.38 0.129 22.751 2.094 0.080 165.23 13.890 0.528 189.706

2021 21.7 8.41 0.388 1.721 3.38 0.156 22.751 2.094 0.097 165.23 13.890 0.640 189.706

2022 17.9 8.41 0.470 1.721 3.38 0.189 22.751 2.094 0.117 165.23 13.890 0.776 189.706

2023 14.9 8.41 0.565 1.721 3.38 0.227 22.751 2.094 0.141 165.23 13.890 0.932 189.706

2024 12.4 8.41 0.679 1.721 3.38 0.273 22.751 2.094 0.169 165.23 13.890 1.120 189.706

2025 8.2 5.80 0.707 1.200 2.35 0.286 15.542 1.426 0.174 110.69 9.570 1.167 127.429

2026 6.9 5.80 0.840 1.200 2.35 0.340 15.542 1.426 0.207 110.69 9.570 1.387 127.429

2027 3.5 3.18 0.908 0.679 1.31 0.376 8.333 0.758 0.217 56.14 5.250 1.500 65.151

2028 3.0 3.18 1.059 0.679 1.31 0.438 8.333 0.758 0.253 56.14 5.250 1.750 65.151

2029 2.6 3.18 1.222 0.679 1.31 0.506 8.333 0.758 0.292 56.14 5.250 2.019 65.151

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2009 0.047 0.023 0.140 1.467 0.225 19.800 0.412 21.291

2010 10.9 0.091 0.008 0.046 0.273 0.025 2.865 0.481 0.044 47.060 0.845 0.078 49.970

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

2013 39.8 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

2014 36.3 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

2015 44.3 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2016 47.5 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

2017 42.6 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

2018 38.7 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

2019 31.9 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

2020 26.3 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

2021 21.7 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

2022 17.9 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

2023 14.9 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

2024 12.4 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

2025 8.2 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

2026 6.9 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

2027 3.5 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

2028 3.0 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

2029 2.6 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

201620092010201120122013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2015200820042005200620072014Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total

20362037203820222023203520272028202920302031203220332034202420252026

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.474.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.71

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.711.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.24

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013 10.9 0.224 0.021 0.013 0.545 0.050 0.211 0.768 0.071 0.224 0.432 0.040 1.697 0.140 0.013 2.471 1.340 2014 19.9 0.224 0.011 0.013 0.545 0.027 0.211 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 2015 19.9 0.224 0.011 0.013 0.545 0.027 0.211 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 2016 19.9 0.224 0.011 0.013 0.545 0.027 0.211 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 2017 34.8 0.635 0.018 0.037 1.473 0.042 0.546 2.108 0.061 0.583 1.071 0.031 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 2018 44.2 0.635 0.014 0.037 1.473 0.033 0.546 2.108 0.048 0.583 1.071 0.024 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 2019 41.9 0.635 0.015 0.037 1.473 0.035 0.546 2.108 0.050 0.583 1.071 0.026 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 2020 39.9 0.635 0.016 0.037 1.473 0.037 0.546 2.108 0.053 0.583 1.071 0.027 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 2021 38.3 0.635 0.017 0.037 1.473 0.038 0.546 2.108 0.055 0.583 1.071 0.028 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 2022 32.7 0.635 0.019 0.037 1.473 0.045 0.546 2.108 0.064 0.583 1.071 0.033 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 2023 27.9 0.635 0.023 0.037 1.473 0.053 0.546 2.108 0.076 0.583 1.071 0.038 4.250 0.342 0.012 5.995 3.522 2024 23.8 0.635 0.027 0.037 1.473 0.062 0.546 2.108 0.089 0.583 1.071 0.045 4.250 0.342 0.014 5.995 3.522 2025 20.3 0.635 0.031 0.037 1.473 0.073 0.546 2.108 0.104 0.583 1.071 0.053 4.250 0.342 0.017 5.995 3.522 2026 17.3 0.635 0.037 0.037 1.473 0.085 0.546 2.108 0.122 0.583 1.071 0.062 4.250 0.342 0.020 5.995 3.522 2027 14.8 0.635 0.043 0.037 1.473 0.100 0.546 2.108 0.142 0.583 1.071 0.072 4.250 0.342 0.023 5.995 3.522 2028 10.7 0.411 0.038 0.024 0.928 0.087 0.335 1.340 0.125 0.359 0.639 0.060 2.552 0.203 0.019 3.524 2.182 2029 9.2 0.411 0.045 0.024 0.928 0.101 0.335 1.340 0.146 0.359 0.639 0.069 2.552 0.203 0.022 3.524 2.182 2030 7.9 0.411 0.052 0.024 0.928 0.118 0.335 1.340 0.170 0.359 0.639 0.081 2.552 0.203 0.026 3.524 2.182 2031 6.8 0.411 0.061 0.017 0.928 0.137 0.282 1.340 0.197 0.300 0.639 0.094 2.209 0.203 0.030 3.240 2.182 2032 5.8 0.411 0.071 0.024 0.928 0.160 0.335 1.340 0.231 0.359 0.639 0.110 2.552 0.203 0.035 3.524 2.182 2033 5.0 0.411 0.082 0.024 0.928 0.186 0.335 1.340 0.268 0.359 0.639 0.128 2.552 0.203 0.041 3.524 2.182 2034 4.3 0.411 0.096 0.024 0.928 0.216 0.335 1.340 0.312 0.359 0.639 0.149 2.552 0.203 0.047 3.524 2.182 2035 3.7 0.411 0.111 0.024 0.928 0.251 0.335 1.340 0.362 0.359 0.639 0.173 2.552 0.203 0.055 3.524 2.182 203620372038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.2 
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.866 0.260 0.04 0.174 0.052 0.32

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 3 0.260 0.04 0.052 0.32

Shallow 1 13 0.866 1.126 0.18 0.174 0.226 1.39

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 13 1.126 0.18 0.226 1.39

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 1.991 0.31 0.400 2.45

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 1.991 0.31 0.400 2.45

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 1 3 0.884 0.265 0.04 0.177 0.053 0.33

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 26 2.257 0.36 0.454 2.78

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 16 0.884 1.415 0.22 0.177 0.284 1.74

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 39 3.406 0.54 0.684 4.19

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 36 0.884 3.184 0.50 0.177 0.639 3.92

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 59 5.175 0.82 1.039 6.37

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

2013 10.9 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

2014 19.9 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

2015 19.9 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

2016 19.9 2.257 0.113 0.357 0.454 0.023 2.781 2.710 0.136 3.138

2017 34.8 3.406 0.098 0.538 0.684 0.020 4.195 4.091 0.118 4.733

2018 44.2 5.175 0.117 0.818 1.039 0.024 6.370 6.215 0.141 7.188

2019 41.9 6.060 0.145 0.957 1.217 0.029 7.457 7.276 0.174 8.415

2020 39.9 6.060 0.152 0.957 1.217 0.030 7.457 7.276 0.182 8.415

2021 38.3 6.060 0.158 0.957 1.217 0.032 7.457 7.276 0.190 8.415

2022 32.7 6.060 0.185 0.957 1.217 0.037 7.457 7.276 0.223 8.415

2023 27.9 6.060 0.217 0.957 1.217 0.044 7.457 7.276 0.261 8.415

2024 23.8 6.060 0.255 0.957 1.217 0.051 7.457 7.276 0.306 8.415

2025 20.3 6.060 0.299 0.957 1.217 0.060 7.457 7.276 0.358 8.415

2026 17.3 6.060 0.350 0.957 1.217 0.070 7.457 7.276 0.421 8.415

2027 14.8 6.060 0.409 0.957 1.217 0.082 7.457 7.276 0.492 8.415

2028 10.7 4.069 0.380 0.643 0.816 0.076 5.003 4.885 0.457 5.645

2029 9.2 4.069 0.442 0.643 0.816 0.089 5.003 4.885 0.531 5.645

2030 7.9 4.069 0.515 0.643 0.816 0.103 5.003 4.885 0.618 5.645

2031 6.8 4.069 0.598 0.643 0.816 0.120 5.003 4.885 0.718 5.645

2032 5.8 4.069 0.701 0.643 0.816 0.141 5.003 4.885 0.842 5.645

2033 5.0 4.069 0.814 0.643 0.816 0.163 5.003 4.885 0.977 5.645

2034 4.3 4.069 0.946 0.643 0.816 0.190 5.003 4.885 1.136 5.645

2035 3.7 4.069 1.100 0.643 0.816 0.221 5.003 4.885 1.320 5.645

2036

2037

2038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 16 0.500 0.080 0.04 3.500 0.560 2.52 1.500 0.240 4.80 1.000 0.160 32.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 36 0.500 0.180 0.09 3.500 1.260 5.67 1.500 0.540 10.80 1.000 0.360 72.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2013 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2014 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2015 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2016 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2017 34.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

2018 44.2 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2019 41.9 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

2020 39.9 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

2021 38.3 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

2022 32.7 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

2023 27.9 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

2024 23.8 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

2025 20.3 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

2026 17.3 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

2027 14.8 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

2028 10.7 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

2029 9.2 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

2030 7.9 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

2031 6.8 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

2032 5.8 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

2033 5.0 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

2034 4.3 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

2035 3.7 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2013 10.9 0.032 0.003 0.016 0.095 0.009 0.995 0.150 0.014 12.900 0.277 0.025 13.911

2014 19.9

2015 19.9

2016 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 6.8

2032 5.8

2033 5.0

2034 4.3

2035 3.7

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010

2011

2012

2013 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2014 19.9 0.026 0.001 0.013 0.078 0.004 0.817 0.156 0.008 17.160 0.260 0.013 17.990

2015 19.9

2016 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 6.8

2032 5.8

2033 5.0

2034 4.3

2035 3.7

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.338 0.080 0.287 2.783 0.375 32.700 1.000 35.563

Pipeline 0.768 0.071 0.224 0.432 0.040 1.697 0.140 0.013 2.471 1.340 0.123 4.392

Platforms 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.003 0.016 0.095 0.009 0.995 0.150 0.014 12.900 0.277 0.025 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 2.017 0.185 0.463 1.026 0.094 6.945 0.771 0.071 62.431 3.813 0.350 69.839

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013 10.9

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 0.067 4.392

Platforms 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

Production Wells 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.001 0.013 0.078 0.004 0.817 0.156 0.008 17.160 0.260 0.013 17.990

Total 2.901 0.146 0.609 1.255 0.063 8.592 0.871 0.044 72.531 5.027 0.253 81.732

Pipeline 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 0.067 4.392

Platforms 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

Production Wells 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 2.875 0.144 0.596 1.177 0.059 7.775 0.715 0.036 55.371 4.767 0.240 63.742

Pipeline 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 0.067 4.392

Platforms 2.257 0.113 0.357 0.454 0.023 2.781 2.710 0.136 3.138

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.155 0.159 0.645 1.275 0.064 8.573 0.790 0.040 62.271 5.220 0.262 71.490

Pipeline 2.108 0.061 0.583 1.071 0.031 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 0.101 10.828

Platforms 3.406 0.098 0.538 0.684 0.020 4.195 4.091 0.118 4.733

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.710 0.164 1.219 2.340 0.067 14.587 1.317 0.038 95.695 9.367 0.269 111.501

Pipeline 2.108 0.048 0.583 1.071 0.024 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 0.080 10.828

Platforms 5.175 0.117 0.818 1.039 0.024 6.370 6.215 0.141 7.188

Production Wells 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 7.579 0.171 1.548 2.995 0.068 19.912 1.817 0.041 141.695 12.391 0.280 163.156

Pipeline 2.108 0.050 0.583 1.071 0.026 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 0.084 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.145 0.957 1.217 0.029 7.457 7.276 0.174 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.203 1.713 3.322 0.079 22.575 2.067 0.049 164.695 13.903 0.332 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.053 0.583 1.071 0.027 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 0.088 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.152 0.957 1.217 0.030 7.457 7.276 0.182 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.213 1.713 3.322 0.083 22.575 2.067 0.052 164.695 13.903 0.348 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.055 0.583 1.071 0.028 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 0.092 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.158 0.957 1.217 0.032 7.457 7.276 0.190 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.222 1.713 3.322 0.087 22.575 2.067 0.054 164.695 13.903 0.363 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.064 0.583 1.071 0.033 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 0.108 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.185 0.957 1.217 0.037 7.457 7.276 0.223 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.260 1.713 3.322 0.102 22.575 2.067 0.063 164.695 13.903 0.425 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.076 0.583 1.071 0.038 4.250 0.342 0.012 5.995 3.522 0.126 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.217 0.957 1.217 0.044 7.457 7.276 0.261 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.305 1.713 3.322 0.119 22.575 2.067 0.074 164.695 13.903 0.498 188.983

2016 19.9

2014 19.9

2015 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.108 0.089 0.583 1.071 0.045 4.250 0.342 0.014 5.995 3.522 0.148 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.255 0.957 1.217 0.051 7.457 7.276 0.306 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.358 1.713 3.322 0.140 22.575 2.067 0.087 164.695 13.903 0.584 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.104 0.583 1.071 0.053 4.250 0.342 0.017 5.995 3.522 0.173 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.299 0.957 1.217 0.060 7.457 7.276 0.358 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.419 1.713 3.322 0.164 22.575 2.067 0.102 164.695 13.903 0.685 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.122 0.583 1.071 0.062 4.250 0.342 0.020 5.995 3.522 0.204 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.350 0.957 1.217 0.070 7.457 7.276 0.421 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.492 1.713 3.322 0.192 22.575 2.067 0.119 164.695 13.903 0.804 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.142 0.583 1.071 0.072 4.250 0.342 0.023 5.995 3.522 0.238 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.409 0.957 1.217 0.082 7.457 7.276 0.492 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.575 1.713 3.322 0.224 22.575 2.067 0.140 164.695 13.903 0.939 188.983

Pipeline 1.340 0.125 0.359 0.639 0.060 2.552 0.203 0.019 3.524 2.182 0.204 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.380 0.643 0.816 0.076 5.003 4.885 0.457 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.527 1.117 2.145 0.200 14.800 1.353 0.126 109.324 9.136 0.854 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.146 0.359 0.639 0.069 2.552 0.203 0.022 3.524 2.182 0.237 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.442 0.643 0.816 0.089 5.003 4.885 0.531 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.613 1.117 2.145 0.233 14.800 1.353 0.147 109.324 9.136 0.993 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.170 0.359 0.639 0.081 2.552 0.203 0.026 3.524 2.182 0.276 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.515 0.643 0.816 0.103 5.003 4.885 0.618 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.714 1.117 2.145 0.272 14.800 1.353 0.171 109.324 9.136 1.157 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.197 0.300 0.639 0.094 2.209 0.203 0.030 3.240 2.182 0.321 5.748

Platforms 4.069 0.598 0.643 0.816 0.120 5.003 4.885 0.718 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.829 1.057 2.145 0.315 14.457 1.353 0.199 109.040 9.136 1.344 124.554

Pipeline 1.340 0.231 0.359 0.639 0.110 2.552 0.203 0.035 3.524 2.182 0.376 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.701 0.643 0.816 0.141 5.003 4.885 0.842 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.972 1.117 2.145 0.370 14.800 1.353 0.233 109.324 9.136 1.575 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.268 0.359 0.639 0.128 2.552 0.203 0.041 3.524 2.182 0.436 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.814 0.643 0.816 0.163 5.003 4.885 0.977 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 1.128 1.117 2.145 0.429 14.800 1.353 0.271 109.324 9.136 1.827 125.241

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 5.8

2032 5.0

2033 3.7

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.340 0.312 0.359 0.639 0.149 2.552 0.203 0.047 3.524 2.182 0.507 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.946 0.643 0.816 0.190 5.003 4.885 1.136 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 1.311 1.117 2.145 0.499 14.800 1.353 0.315 109.324 9.136 2.125 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.362 0.359 0.639 0.173 2.552 0.203 0.055 3.524 2.182 0.590 6.436

Platforms 4.069 1.100 0.643 0.816 0.221 5.003 4.885 1.320 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 1.524 1.117 2.145 0.580 14.800 1.353 0.366 109.324 9.136 2.469 125.241

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2008 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2009 0.03 0.013 0.08 0.817 0.156 17.16 0.260 17.990

2010 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.34 0.080 0.29 2.783 0.375 32.70 1.000 35.563

2013 10.9 2.02 0.185 0.463 1.03 0.094 6.945 0.771 0.071 62.43 3.813 0.350 69.839

2014 19.9 2.90 0.146 0.609 1.26 0.063 8.592 0.871 0.044 72.53 5.027 0.253 81.732

2015 19.9 2.87 0.144 0.596 1.18 0.059 7.775 0.715 0.036 55.37 4.767 0.240 63.742

2016 19.9 3.16 0.159 0.645 1.28 0.064 8.573 0.790 0.040 62.27 5.220 0.262 71.490

2017 34.8 5.71 0.164 1.219 2.34 0.067 14.587 1.317 0.038 95.70 9.367 0.269 111.501

2018 44.2 7.58 0.171 1.548 3.00 0.068 19.912 1.817 0.041 141.70 12.391 0.280 163.156

2019 41.9 8.51 0.203 1.713 3.32 0.079 22.575 2.067 0.049 164.70 13.903 0.332 188.983

2020 39.9 8.51 0.213 1.713 3.32 0.083 22.575 2.067 0.052 164.70 13.903 0.348 188.983

2021 38.3 8.51 0.222 1.713 3.32 0.087 22.575 2.067 0.054 164.70 13.903 0.363 188.983

2022 32.7 8.51 0.260 1.713 3.32 0.102 22.575 2.067 0.063 164.70 13.903 0.425 188.983

2023 27.9 8.51 0.305 1.713 3.32 0.119 22.575 2.067 0.074 164.70 13.903 0.498 188.983

2024 23.8 8.51 0.358 1.713 3.32 0.140 22.575 2.067 0.087 164.70 13.903 0.584 188.983

2025 20.3 8.51 0.419 1.713 3.32 0.164 22.575 2.067 0.102 164.70 13.903 0.685 188.983

2026 17.3 8.51 0.492 1.713 3.32 0.192 22.575 2.067 0.119 164.70 13.903 0.804 188.983

2027 14.8 8.51 0.575 1.713 3.32 0.224 22.575 2.067 0.140 164.70 13.903 0.939 188.983

2028 10.7 5.64 0.527 1.117 2.15 0.200 14.800 1.353 0.126 109.32 9.136 0.854 125.241

2029 9.2 5.64 0.613 1.117 2.15 0.233 14.800 1.353 0.147 109.32 9.136 0.993 125.241

2030 7.9 5.64 0.714 1.117 2.15 0.272 14.800 1.353 0.171 109.32 9.136 1.157 125.241

2031 6.8 5.64 0.829 1.057 2.15 0.315 14.457 1.353 0.199 109.04 9.136 1.344 124.554

2032 5.8 5.64 0.972 1.117 2.15 0.370 14.800 1.353 0.233 109.32 9.136 1.575 125.241

2033 5.0 5.64 1.128 1.117 2.15 0.429 14.800 1.353 0.271 109.32 9.136 1.827 125.241

2034 4.3 5.64 1.311 1.117 2.15 0.499 14.800 1.353 0.315 109.32 9.136 2.125 125.241

2035 3.7 5.64 1.524 1.117 2.15 0.580 14.800 1.353 0.366 109.32 9.136 2.469 125.241

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.078 0.039 0.235 2.462 0.375 32.700 0.688 35.202

2013 10.9 0.123 0.011 0.061 0.368 0.034 3.860 0.631 0.058 59.960 1.122 0.103 63.881

2014 19.9 0.141 0.007 0.071 0.423 0.021 4.440 0.731 0.037 70.060 1.295 0.065 74.570

2015 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2016 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2017 34.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

2018 44.2 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2019 41.9 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

2020 39.9 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

2021 38.3 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

2022 32.7 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

2023 27.9 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

2024 23.8 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

2025 20.3 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

2026 17.3 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

2027 14.8 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

2028 10.7 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

2029 9.2 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

2030 7.9 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

2031 6.8 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

2032 5.8 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

2033 5.0 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

2034 4.3 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

2035 3.7 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

201620092010201120122013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2015200820042005200620072014Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 

20362037203820222023203520272028202920302031203220332034202420252026

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.86

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.86

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 30.8 0.560 0.018 0.033 1.293 0.042 0.476 1.854 0.060 0.509 0.920 0.030 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 2020 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2021 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2022 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2023 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2024 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2025 34.0 0.560 0.016 0.033 1.293 0.038 0.476 1.854 0.055 0.509 0.920 0.027 3.657 0.294 0.009 5.144 3.068 2026 29.9 0.560 0.019 0.033 1.293 0.043 0.476 1.854 0.062 0.509 0.920 0.031 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 2027 26.3 0.560 0.021 0.033 1.293 0.049 0.476 1.854 0.070 0.509 0.920 0.035 3.657 0.294 0.011 5.144 3.068 2028 23.2 0.560 0.024 0.033 1.293 0.056 0.476 1.854 0.080 0.509 0.920 0.040 3.657 0.294 0.013 5.144 3.068 2029 20.4 0.560 0.027 0.033 1.293 0.063 0.476 1.854 0.091 0.509 0.920 0.045 3.657 0.294 0.014 5.144 3.068 2030 17.9 0.560 0.031 0.033 1.293 0.072 0.476 1.854 0.104 0.509 0.920 0.051 3.657 0.294 0.016 5.144 3.068 2031 15.8 0.560 0.035 0.026 1.293 0.082 0.424 1.854 0.117 0.449 0.920 0.058 3.314 0.294 0.019 4.859 3.068 2032 13.9 0.560 0.040 0.033 1.293 0.093 0.476 1.854 0.133 0.509 0.920 0.066 3.657 0.294 0.021 5.144 3.068 2033 12.2 0.560 0.046 0.033 1.293 0.106 0.476 1.854 0.152 0.509 0.920 0.075 3.657 0.294 0.024 5.144 3.068 2034 10.8 0.560 0.052 0.033 1.293 0.120 0.476 1.854 0.172 0.509 0.920 0.085 3.657 0.294 0.027 5.144 3.068 2035 9.5 0.560 0.059 0.033 1.293 0.136 0.476 1.854 0.195 0.509 0.920 0.097 3.657 0.294 0.031 5.144 3.068 2036 8.3 0.560 0.068 0.033 1.293 0.156 0.476 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 2037 7.3 0.560 0.077 0.033 1.293 0.177 0.476 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 2038 6.5 0.560 0.086 0.033 1.293 0.199 0.476 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.2 
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 4 0.884 0.354 0.06 0.177 0.071 0.44

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 4 0.354 0.06 0.071 0.44

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 18 0.884 1.592 0.25 0.177 0.319 1.96

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 18 1.592 0.25 0.319 1.96

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 38 0.884 3.361 0.53 0.177 0.674 4.13

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 38 3.361 0.53 0.674 4.13

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 58 0.884 5.130 0.81 0.177 1.029 6.31

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 58 5.130 0.81 1.029 6.31

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.354 0.056 0.071 0.435 0.425 0.491

2019 30.8 1.592 0.052 0.252 0.319 0.010 1.958 1.911 0.062 2.209

2020 38.6 3.361 0.087 0.531 0.674 0.017 4.133 4.035 0.105 4.664

2021 38.6 5.130 0.133 0.811 1.029 0.027 6.308 6.159 0.160 7.118

2022 38.6 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

2023 38.6 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

2024 38.6 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

2025 34.0 6.014 0.177 0.950 1.206 0.035 7.395 7.221 0.212 8.346

2026 29.9 6.014 0.201 0.950 1.206 0.040 7.395 7.221 0.242 8.346

2027 26.3 6.014 0.229 0.950 1.206 0.046 7.395 7.221 0.275 8.346

2028 23.2 6.014 0.259 0.950 1.206 0.052 7.395 7.221 0.311 8.346

2029 20.4 6.014 0.295 0.950 1.206 0.059 7.395 7.221 0.354 8.346

2030 17.9 6.014 0.336 0.950 1.206 0.067 7.395 7.221 0.403 8.346

2031 15.8 6.014 0.381 0.950 1.206 0.076 7.395 7.221 0.457 8.346

2032 13.9 6.014 0.433 0.950 1.206 0.087 7.395 7.221 0.519 8.346

2033 12.2 6.014 0.493 0.950 1.206 0.099 7.395 7.221 0.592 8.346

2034 10.8 6.014 0.557 0.950 1.206 0.112 7.395 7.221 0.669 8.346

2035 9.5 6.014 0.633 0.950 1.206 0.127 7.395 7.221 0.760 8.346

2036 8.3 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

2037 7.3 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

2038 6.5 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 4 0.500 0.020 0.01 3.500 0.140 0.63 1.500 0.060 1.20 1.000 0.040 8.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 4 0.020 0.01 0.140 0.63 0.060 1.20 0.040 8.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 18 0.500 0.090 0.05 3.500 0.630 2.84 1.500 0.270 5.40 1.000 0.180 36.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 18 0.090 0.05 0.630 2.84 0.270 5.40 0.180 36.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 38 0.500 0.190 0.10 3.500 1.330 5.99 1.500 0.570 11.40 1.000 0.380 76.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 38 0.190 0.10 1.330 5.99 0.570 11.40 0.380 76.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 58 0.500 0.290 0.15 3.500 2.030 9.14 1.500 0.870 17.40 1.000 0.580 116.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 58 0.290 0.15 2.030 9.14 0.870 17.40 0.580 116.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.020 0.010 0.060 0.630 0.100 9.200 0.180 9.840

2019 30.8 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

2020 38.6 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

2021 38.6 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

2022 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2023 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2024 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2025 34.0 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

2026 29.9 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

2027 26.3 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

2028 23.2 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

2029 20.4 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

2030 17.9 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

2031 15.8 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

2032 13.9 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

2033 12.2 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

2034 10.8 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

2035 9.5 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2013 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2014

2015 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2016

2017 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2018 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2014 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2015 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2016

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.045 0.022 0.134 1.404 0.228 21.480 0.407 22.906

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms 0.354 0.056 0.071 0.435 0.425 0.491

Production Wells 0.020 0.010 0.060 0.630 0.100 9.200 0.180 9.840

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.405 0.082 0.226 2.060 0.250 22.100 0.881 24.242

Pipeline 1.854 0.060 0.509 0.920 0.030 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 0.100 9.310

Platforms 1.592 0.052 0.252 0.319 0.010 1.958 1.911 0.062 2.209

Production Wells 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.536 0.115 0.806 1.509 0.049 8.449 0.744 0.024 46.544 5.789 0.188 55.799

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 3.361 0.087 0.531 0.674 0.017 4.133 4.035 0.105 4.664

Production Wells 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.405 0.140 1.135 2.164 0.056 13.774 1.244 0.032 92.544 8.813 0.228 107.453

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 5.130 0.133 0.811 1.029 0.027 6.308 6.159 0.160 7.118

Production Wells 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 7.274 0.188 1.464 2.819 0.073 19.099 1.744 0.045 138.544 11.837 0.307 159.108

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.213 1.629 3.146 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.544 13.349 0.346 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.213 1.629 3.146 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.544 13.349 0.346 184.935

2016

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.213 1.629 3.146 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.544 13.349 0.346 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.055 0.509 0.920 0.027 3.657 0.294 0.009 5.144 3.068 0.090 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.177 0.950 1.206 0.035 7.395 7.221 0.212 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.241 1.629 3.146 0.093 21.762 1.994 0.059 161.544 13.349 0.393 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.062 0.509 0.920 0.031 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 0.103 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.201 0.950 1.206 0.040 7.395 7.221 0.242 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.275 1.629 3.146 0.105 21.762 1.994 0.067 161.544 13.349 0.446 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.070 0.509 0.920 0.035 3.657 0.294 0.011 5.144 3.068 0.117 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.229 0.950 1.206 0.046 7.395 7.221 0.275 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.312 1.629 3.146 0.120 21.762 1.994 0.076 161.544 13.349 0.508 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.080 0.509 0.920 0.040 3.657 0.294 0.013 5.144 3.068 0.132 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.259 0.950 1.206 0.052 7.395 7.221 0.311 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.354 1.629 3.146 0.136 21.762 1.994 0.086 161.544 13.349 0.575 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.091 0.509 0.920 0.045 3.657 0.294 0.014 5.144 3.068 0.150 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.295 0.950 1.206 0.059 7.395 7.221 0.354 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.402 1.629 3.146 0.154 21.762 1.994 0.098 161.544 13.349 0.654 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.104 0.509 0.920 0.051 3.657 0.294 0.016 5.144 3.068 0.171 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.336 0.950 1.206 0.067 7.395 7.221 0.403 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.459 1.629 3.146 0.176 21.762 1.994 0.111 161.544 13.349 0.746 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.117 0.449 0.920 0.058 3.314 0.294 0.019 4.859 3.068 0.194 8.622

Platforms 6.014 0.381 0.950 1.206 0.076 7.395 7.221 0.457 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.520 1.570 3.146 0.199 21.419 1.994 0.126 161.259 13.349 0.845 184.248

Pipeline 1.854 0.133 0.509 0.920 0.066 3.657 0.294 0.021 5.144 3.068 0.221 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.433 0.950 1.206 0.087 7.395 7.221 0.519 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.591 1.629 3.146 0.226 21.762 1.994 0.143 161.544 13.349 0.960 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.152 0.509 0.920 0.075 3.657 0.294 0.024 5.144 3.068 0.251 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.493 0.950 1.206 0.099 7.395 7.221 0.592 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.673 1.629 3.146 0.258 21.762 1.994 0.163 161.544 13.349 1.094 184.935

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.854 0.172 0.509 0.920 0.085 3.657 0.294 0.027 5.144 3.068 0.284 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.557 0.950 1.206 0.112 7.395 7.221 0.669 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.760 1.629 3.146 0.291 21.762 1.994 0.185 161.544 13.349 1.236 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.195 0.509 0.920 0.097 3.657 0.294 0.031 5.144 3.068 0.323 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.633 0.950 1.206 0.127 7.395 7.221 0.760 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.864 1.629 3.146 0.331 21.762 1.994 0.210 161.544 13.349 1.405 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 0.370 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.989 1.629 3.146 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.544 13.349 1.608 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 0.420 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.124 1.629 3.146 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.544 13.349 1.829 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 0.472 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.263 1.629 3.146 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.544 13.349 2.054 184.935

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2013 0.04 0.022 0.13 1.404 0.228 21.48 0.407 22.906

2014 0.03 0.013 0.08 0.817 0.156 17.16 0.260 17.990

2015 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2016

2017 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2018 0.41 0.082 0.23 2.060 0.250 22.10 0.881 24.242

2019 30.8 3.54 0.115 0.806 1.51 0.049 8.449 0.744 0.024 46.54 5.789 0.188 55.799

2020 38.6 5.40 0.140 1.135 2.16 0.056 13.774 1.244 0.032 92.54 8.813 0.228 107.453

2021 38.6 7.27 0.188 1.464 2.82 0.073 19.099 1.744 0.045 138.54 11.837 0.307 159.108

2022 38.6 8.21 0.213 1.629 3.15 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.54 13.349 0.346 184.935

2023 38.6 8.21 0.213 1.629 3.15 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.54 13.349 0.346 184.935

2024 38.6 8.21 0.213 1.629 3.15 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.54 13.349 0.346 184.935

2025 34.0 8.21 0.241 1.629 3.15 0.093 21.762 1.994 0.059 161.54 13.349 0.393 184.935

2026 29.9 8.21 0.275 1.629 3.15 0.105 21.762 1.994 0.067 161.54 13.349 0.446 184.935

2027 26.3 8.21 0.312 1.629 3.15 0.120 21.762 1.994 0.076 161.54 13.349 0.508 184.935

2028 23.2 8.21 0.354 1.629 3.15 0.136 21.762 1.994 0.086 161.54 13.349 0.575 184.935

2029 20.4 8.21 0.402 1.629 3.15 0.154 21.762 1.994 0.098 161.54 13.349 0.654 184.935

2030 17.9 8.21 0.459 1.629 3.15 0.176 21.762 1.994 0.111 161.54 13.349 0.746 184.935

2031 15.8 8.21 0.520 1.570 3.15 0.199 21.419 1.994 0.126 161.26 13.349 0.845 184.248

2032 13.9 8.21 0.591 1.629 3.15 0.226 21.762 1.994 0.143 161.54 13.349 0.960 184.935

2033 12.2 8.21 0.673 1.629 3.15 0.258 21.762 1.994 0.163 161.54 13.349 1.094 184.935

2034 10.8 8.21 0.760 1.629 3.15 0.291 21.762 1.994 0.185 161.54 13.349 1.236 184.935

2035 9.5 8.21 0.864 1.629 3.15 0.331 21.762 1.994 0.210 161.54 13.349 1.405 184.935

2036 8.3 8.21 0.989 1.629 3.15 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.54 13.349 1.608 184.935

2037 7.3 8.21 1.124 1.629 3.15 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.54 13.349 1.829 184.935

2038 6.5 8.21 1.263 1.629 3.15 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.54 13.349 2.054 184.935

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2013 0.045 0.022 0.134 1.404 0.228 21.480 0.407 22.906

2014 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2015 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2016

2017 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2018 0.052 0.026 0.155 1.625 0.250 22.100 0.457 23.751

2019 30.8 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

2020 38.6 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

2021 38.6 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

2022 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2023 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2024 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2025 34.0 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

2026 29.9 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

2027 26.3 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

2028 23.2 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

2029 20.4 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

2030 17.9 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

2031 15.8 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

2032 13.9 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

2033 12.2 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

2034 10.8 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

2035 9.5 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 35 0.522 0.03 1.271 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 35 0.522 0.03 1.271 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 45 0.928 0.672 0.04 2.256 1.634 0.63 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 55 0.820 0.05 2.000 0.77 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 45 0.928 0.672 0.04 2.256 1.634 0.63 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 55 0.820 0.05 2.000 0.77 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 55 0.928 0.821 0.05 2.256 1.997 0.77 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 20 0.924 0.297 0.02 2.278 0.733 0.28 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 75 1.118 0.06 2.730 1.06 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 55 0.928 0.821 0.05 2.256 1.997 0.77 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 20 0.924 0.297 0.02 2.278 0.733 0.28 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 75 1.118 0.06 2.730 1.06 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 

Average Spill [bbl] = A

Medium Spills Large Spills

2014

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

20152008

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004200520062007Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

20162009201020112012201320172018201920202021

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Average Spill [bbl] = A

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 60 0.928 0.896 0.05 2.256 2.178 0.84 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 95 1.416 0.08 3.461 1.34 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 60 0.928 0.896 0.05 2.256 2.178 0.84 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 95 1.416 0.08 3.461 1.34 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 50 0.928 0.746 0.04 2.256 1.815 0.70 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 85 1.266 0.07 3.098 1.20 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 70 1.043 0.06 2.554 0.99 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 70 1.043 0.06 2.554 0.99 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 

20242025202620352027202820292030203120322033203420362037203820222023

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

1.651.651.651.653.303.305.775.775.775.777.411.599.017.411.599.019.063.18

12.25

9.063.18

12.2511.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.10

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

11.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.10

9.895.57

15.46

9.895.57

15.46

8.245.57

13.81

5.775.57

11.34

5.775.57

11.34

4.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.102.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.86

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.149 0.014 0.009 0.363 0.033 0.141 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 2011 19.9 0.149 0.008 0.009 0.363 0.018 0.141 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 2012 30.8 0.299 0.010 0.017 0.726 0.024 0.281 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 2013 50.7 0.522 0.010 0.030 1.271 0.025 0.492 1.793 0.035 0.522 1.007 0.020 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 2014 56.2 0.522 0.009 0.030 1.271 0.023 0.492 1.793 0.032 0.522 1.007 0.018 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 2015 64.2 0.820 0.013 0.048 2.000 0.031 0.774 2.821 0.044 0.822 1.569 0.024 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 2016 67.4 0.820 0.012 0.048 2.000 0.030 0.774 2.821 0.042 0.822 1.569 0.023 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 2017 77.4 1.232 0.016 0.071 2.929 0.038 1.109 4.161 0.054 1.181 2.208 0.029 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 2018 82.9 1.232 0.015 0.071 2.929 0.035 1.109 4.161 0.050 1.181 2.208 0.027 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 2019 104.6 1.792 0.017 0.104 4.222 0.040 1.586 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 2020 104.8 1.792 0.017 0.104 4.222 0.040 1.586 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 2021 98.6 1.792 0.018 0.104 4.222 0.043 1.586 6.014 0.061 1.690 3.128 0.032 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 2022 89.2 1.792 0.020 0.104 4.222 0.047 1.586 6.014 0.067 1.690 3.128 0.035 12.379 1.006 0.011 17.674 10.148 2023 81.4 1.792 0.022 0.104 4.222 0.052 1.586 6.014 0.074 1.690 3.128 0.038 12.379 1.006 0.012 17.674 10.148 2024 74.8 1.792 0.024 0.104 4.222 0.056 1.586 6.014 0.080 1.690 3.128 0.042 12.379 1.006 0.013 17.674 10.148 2025 62.5 1.643 0.026 0.095 3.859 0.062 1.445 5.502 0.088 1.541 2.841 0.045 11.247 0.913 0.015 16.026 9.255 2026 54.1 1.643 0.030 0.095 3.859 0.071 1.445 5.502 0.102 1.541 2.841 0.053 11.247 0.913 0.017 16.026 9.255 2027 44.6 1.494 0.033 0.087 3.496 0.078 1.305 4.990 0.112 1.391 2.553 0.057 10.115 0.819 0.018 14.379 8.362 2028 36.9 1.270 0.034 0.074 2.951 0.080 1.094 4.221 0.114 1.168 2.121 0.057 8.418 0.680 0.018 11.908 7.022 2029 32.2 1.270 0.039 0.074 2.951 0.092 1.094 4.221 0.131 1.168 2.121 0.066 8.418 0.680 0.021 11.908 7.022 2030 25.8 0.972 0.038 0.056 2.222 0.086 0.812 3.194 0.124 0.868 1.559 0.060 6.209 0.497 0.019 8.668 5.250 2031 22.6 0.972 0.043 0.043 2.222 0.098 0.706 3.194 0.141 0.749 1.559 0.069 5.523 0.497 0.022 8.099 5.250 2032 19.7 0.972 0.049 0.056 2.222 0.113 0.812 3.194 0.162 0.868 1.559 0.079 6.209 0.497 0.025 8.668 5.250 2033 17.2 0.972 0.057 0.056 2.222 0.129 0.812 3.194 0.186 0.868 1.559 0.091 6.209 0.497 0.029 8.668 5.250 2034 15.1 0.972 0.064 0.056 2.222 0.147 0.812 3.194 0.211 0.868 1.559 0.103 6.209 0.497 0.033 8.668 5.250 2035 13.2 0.972 0.074 0.056 2.222 0.168 0.812 3.194 0.242 0.868 1.559 0.118 6.209 0.497 0.038 8.668 5.250 2036 8.3 0.560 0.068 0.033 1.293 0.156 0.476 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 2037 7.3 0.560 0.077 0.033 1.293 0.177 0.476 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 2038 6.5 0.560 0.086 0.033 1.293 0.199 0.476 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.2 
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.866 0.260 0.04 0.174 0.052 0.32

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 3 0.260 0.04 0.052 0.32

Shallow 1 13 0.866 1.126 0.18 0.174 0.226 1.39

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 13 1.126 0.18 0.226 1.39

Shallow 2 26 0.866 2.251 0.36 0.174 0.453 2.77

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 26 2.251 0.36 0.453 2.77

Shallow 3 39 0.866 3.377 0.53 0.174 0.679 4.16

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 39 3.377 0.53 0.679 4.16

Shallow 3 59 0.866 5.108 0.81 0.174 1.027 6.30

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 59 5.108 0.81 1.027 6.30

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 1 3 0.884 0.265 0.04 0.177 0.053 0.33

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 72 6.239 0.99 1.255 7.69

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 1 13 0.884 1.150 0.18 0.177 0.231 1.41

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 82 7.124 1.13 1.432 8.78

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 2 26 0.884 2.300 0.36 0.177 0.461 2.83

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 5 95 8.274 1.31 1.663 10.19

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 3 39 0.884 3.449 0.55 0.177 0.692 4.24

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 6 108 9.423 1.49 1.893 11.61

2014

2015

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 4 63 0.884 5.572 0.88 0.177 1.118 6.85

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 7 132 11.546 1.82 2.319 14.22

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 87 0.884 7.695 1.22 0.177 1.543 9.46

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 156 13.669 2.16 2.745 16.83

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 107 0.884 9.464 1.50 0.177 1.898 11.64

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 176 15.438 2.44 3.100 19.00

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 127 0.884 11.233 1.77 0.177 2.253 13.81

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 196 17.207 2.72 3.454 21.18

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 206 18.091 2.86 3.632 22.26

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 206 18.091 2.86 3.632 22.26

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 206 18.091 2.86 3.632 22.26

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 7 183 16.100 2.54 3.231 19.81

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 7 183 16.100 2.54 3.231 19.81

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 6 160 14.109 2.23 2.831 17.35

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 5 137 12.117 1.91 2.431 14.90

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 5 137 12.117 1.91 2.431 14.90

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2020

2021

2022

2023

2018

2019

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

2010 10.9 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

2011 19.9 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

2012 30.8 3.377 0.110 0.533 0.679 0.022 4.162 4.056 0.132 4.696

2013 50.7 5.108 0.101 0.807 1.027 0.020 6.297 6.135 0.121 7.104

2014 56.2 6.239 0.111 0.986 1.255 0.022 7.691 7.494 0.133 8.676

2015 64.2 7.124 0.111 1.126 1.432 0.022 8.778 8.556 0.133 9.904

2016 67.4 8.274 0.123 1.307 1.663 0.025 10.192 9.936 0.147 11.499

2017 77.4 9.423 0.122 1.489 1.893 0.024 11.606 11.317 0.146 13.095

2018 82.9 11.546 0.139 1.824 2.319 0.028 14.216 13.865 0.167 16.040

2019 104.6 13.669 0.131 2.160 2.745 0.026 16.826 16.414 0.157 18.986

2020 104.8 15.438 0.147 2.439 3.100 0.030 19.001 18.537 0.177 21.440

2021 98.6 17.207 0.175 2.719 3.454 0.035 21.176 20.661 0.210 23.895

2022 89.2 18.091 0.203 2.858 3.632 0.041 22.264 21.723 0.244 25.122

2023 81.4 18.091 0.222 2.858 3.632 0.045 22.264 21.723 0.267 25.122

2024 74.8 18.091 0.242 2.858 3.632 0.049 22.264 21.723 0.290 25.122

2025 62.5 16.100 0.258 2.544 3.231 0.052 19.809 19.331 0.309 22.353

2026 54.1 16.100 0.298 2.544 3.231 0.060 19.809 19.331 0.357 22.353

2027 44.6 14.109 0.316 2.229 2.831 0.063 17.354 16.940 0.380 19.583

2028 36.9 12.117 0.328 1.915 2.431 0.066 14.899 14.548 0.394 16.814

2029 32.2 12.117 0.376 1.915 2.431 0.075 14.899 14.548 0.452 16.814

2030 25.8 10.083 0.391 1.593 2.022 0.078 12.398 12.106 0.469 13.991

2031 22.6 10.083 0.446 1.593 2.022 0.089 12.398 12.106 0.536 13.991

2032 19.7 10.083 0.512 1.593 2.022 0.103 12.398 12.106 0.614 13.991

2033 17.2 10.083 0.586 1.593 2.022 0.118 12.398 12.106 0.704 13.991

2034 15.1 10.083 0.668 1.593 2.022 0.134 12.398 12.106 0.802 13.991

2035 13.2 10.083 0.764 1.593 2.022 0.153 12.398 12.106 0.917 13.991

2036 8.3 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

2037 7.3 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

2038 6.5 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

Shallow 59 0.500 0.295 0.15 3.500 2.065 9.29 1.500 0.885 17.70 1.000 0.590 118.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 72 0.360 0.18 2.520 11.34 1.080 21.60 0.720 144.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 82 0.410 0.21 2.870 12.92 1.230 24.60 0.820 164.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 95 0.475 0.24 3.325 14.96 1.425 28.50 0.950 190.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

2017

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 63 0.500 0.315 0.16 3.500 2.205 9.92 1.500 0.945 18.90 1.000 0.630 126.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 132 0.660 0.33 4.620 20.79 1.980 39.60 1.320 264.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 87 0.500 0.435 0.22 3.500 3.045 13.70 1.500 1.305 26.10 1.000 0.870 174.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 156 0.780 0.39 5.460 24.57 2.340 46.80 1.560 312.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 107 0.500 0.535 0.27 3.500 3.745 16.85 1.500 1.605 32.10 1.000 1.070 214.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 176 0.880 0.44 6.160 27.72 2.640 52.80 1.760 352.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 127 0.500 0.635 0.32 3.500 4.445 20.00 1.500 1.905 38.10 1.000 1.270 254.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 196 0.980 0.49 6.860 30.87 2.940 58.80 1.960 392.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 160 0.800 0.40 5.600 25.20 2.400 48.00 1.600 320.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

2013 50.7 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

2014 56.2 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

2015 64.2 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

2018 82.9 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

2011 19.9

2012 30.8 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

2013 50.7 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

2014 56.2

2015 64.2 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2016 67.4

2017 77.4 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2018 82.9 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 3 1.300 0.039 0.02 9.080 0.272 1.23 3.900 0.117 2.34 3.900 0.117 23.40

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 3 0.039 0.02 0.272 1.23 0.117 2.34 0.117 23.40

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 4 1.300 0.052 0.03 9.080 0.363 1.63 3.900 0.156 3.12 3.900 0.156 31.20

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 4 0.052 0.03 0.363 1.63 0.156 3.12 0.156 31.20

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2017

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 50.7 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

2014 56.2 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

2015 64.2 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

2016 67.4

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline

Platforms 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.332 0.077 0.270 2.605 0.381 36.960 0.984 39.642

Pipeline 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 0.082 2.928

Platforms 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 1.792 0.164 0.404 0.977 0.090 7.374 0.874 0.080 74.508 3.643 0.334 82.285

Pipeline 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 0.045 2.928

Platforms 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 2.893 0.145 0.570 1.130 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.448 4.767 0.240 70.019

Pipeline 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 0.058 5.857

Platforms 3.377 0.110 0.533 0.679 0.022 4.162 4.056 0.132 4.696

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

Development Wells

Total 4.691 0.152 0.977 2.125 0.069 15.553 1.611 0.052 131.695 8.427 0.274 148.225

Pipeline 1.793 0.035 0.522 1.007 0.020 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 0.062 10.249

Platforms 5.108 0.101 0.807 1.027 0.020 6.297 6.135 0.121 7.104

Production Wells 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

Development Wells 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

Total 7.298 0.144 1.528 3.227 0.064 22.766 2.335 0.046 193.006 12.860 0.254 217.300

2012 30.8

2013 50.7

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.793 0.032 0.522 1.007 0.018 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 0.056 10.249

Platforms 6.239 0.111 0.986 1.255 0.022 7.691 7.494 0.133 8.676

Production Wells 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

Total 8.444 0.150 1.714 3.498 0.062 24.626 2.438 0.043 205.686 14.380 0.256 232.026

Pipeline 2.821 0.044 0.822 1.569 0.024 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 0.076 15.997

Platforms 7.124 0.111 1.126 1.432 0.022 8.778 8.556 0.133 9.904

Production Wells 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

Total 10.412 0.162 2.181 4.404 0.069 29.675 2.865 0.045 227.666 17.681 0.275 259.522

Pipeline 2.821 0.042 0.822 1.569 0.023 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 0.073 15.997

Platforms 8.274 0.123 1.307 1.663 0.025 10.192 9.936 0.147 11.499

Production Wells 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.569 0.172 2.366 4.657 0.069 31.324 2.884 0.043 227.506 19.110 0.284 261.196

Pipeline 4.161 0.054 1.181 2.208 0.029 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 0.091 22.433

Platforms 9.423 0.122 1.489 1.893 0.024 11.606 11.317 0.146 13.095

Production Wells 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells

Total 14.156 0.183 2.956 5.817 0.075 38.333 3.561 0.046 273.830 23.533 0.304 315.118

Pipeline 4.161 0.050 1.181 2.208 0.027 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 0.085 22.433

Platforms 11.546 0.139 1.824 2.319 0.028 14.216 13.865 0.167 16.040

Production Wells 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

Development Wells

Total 16.398 0.198 3.351 6.602 0.080 44.723 4.161 0.050 329.030 27.162 0.328 377.104

Pipeline 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 0.097 31.742

Platforms 13.669 0.131 2.160 2.745 0.026 16.826 16.414 0.157 18.986

Production Wells 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.463 0.196 4.239 8.213 0.079 53.775 4.906 0.047 376.474 33.582 0.321 434.488

Pipeline 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 0.097 31.742

Platforms 15.438 0.147 2.439 3.100 0.030 19.001 18.537 0.177 21.440

Production Wells 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.332 0.213 4.569 8.868 0.085 59.100 5.406 0.052 422.474 36.606 0.349 486.143

Pipeline 6.014 0.061 1.690 3.128 0.032 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 0.103 31.742

Platforms 17.207 0.175 2.719 3.454 0.035 21.176 20.661 0.210 23.895

Production Wells 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.201 0.245 4.898 9.523 0.097 64.425 5.906 0.060 468.474 39.629 0.402 537.797

Pipeline 6.014 0.067 1.690 3.128 0.035 12.379 1.006 0.011 17.674 10.148 0.114 31.742

Platforms 18.091 0.203 2.858 3.632 0.041 22.264 21.723 0.244 25.122

Production Wells 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.136 0.282 5.063 9.850 0.110 67.087 6.156 0.069 491.474 41.141 0.461 563.624

Pipeline 6.014 0.074 1.690 3.128 0.038 12.379 1.006 0.012 17.674 10.148 0.125 31.742

Platforms 18.091 0.222 2.858 3.632 0.045 22.264 21.723 0.267 25.122

Production Wells 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.136 0.309 5.063 9.850 0.121 67.087 6.156 0.076 491.474 41.141 0.505 563.624

2023 81.4

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2016 67.4

2014 56.2

2015 64.2

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 6.014 0.080 1.690 3.128 0.042 12.379 1.006 0.013 17.674 10.148 0.136 31.742

Platforms 18.091 0.242 2.858 3.632 0.049 22.264 21.723 0.290 25.122

Production Wells 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.136 0.336 5.063 9.850 0.132 67.087 6.156 0.082 491.474 41.141 0.550 563.624

Pipeline 5.502 0.088 1.541 2.841 0.045 11.247 0.913 0.015 16.026 9.255 0.148 28.814

Platforms 16.100 0.258 2.544 3.231 0.052 19.809 19.331 0.309 22.353

Production Wells 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.517 0.360 4.542 8.817 0.141 59.878 5.488 0.088 436.926 36.821 0.589 501.347

Pipeline 5.502 0.102 1.541 2.841 0.053 11.247 0.913 0.017 16.026 9.255 0.171 28.814

Platforms 16.100 0.298 2.544 3.231 0.060 19.809 19.331 0.357 22.353

Production Wells 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.517 0.416 4.542 8.817 0.163 59.878 5.488 0.101 436.926 36.821 0.681 501.347

Pipeline 4.990 0.112 1.391 2.553 0.057 10.115 0.819 0.018 14.379 8.362 0.187 25.886

Platforms 14.109 0.316 2.229 2.831 0.063 17.354 16.940 0.380 19.583

Production Wells 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 19.898 0.446 4.021 7.784 0.175 52.669 4.819 0.108 382.379 32.502 0.729 439.069

Pipeline 4.221 0.114 1.168 2.121 0.057 8.418 0.680 0.018 11.908 7.022 0.190 21.493

Platforms 12.117 0.328 1.915 2.431 0.066 14.899 14.548 0.394 16.814

Production Wells 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.024 0.461 3.425 6.607 0.179 44.895 4.105 0.111 327.008 27.735 0.752 375.327

Pipeline 4.221 0.131 1.168 2.121 0.066 8.418 0.680 0.021 11.908 7.022 0.218 21.493

Platforms 12.117 0.376 1.915 2.431 0.075 14.899 14.548 0.452 16.814

Production Wells 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.024 0.529 3.425 6.607 0.205 44.895 4.105 0.127 327.008 27.735 0.861 375.327

Pipeline 3.194 0.124 0.868 1.559 0.060 6.209 0.497 0.019 8.668 5.250 0.203 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.391 1.593 2.022 0.078 12.398 12.106 0.469 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.537 2.746 5.292 0.205 36.562 3.347 0.130 270.868 22.485 0.872 310.176

Pipeline 3.194 0.141 0.749 1.559 0.069 5.523 0.497 0.022 8.099 5.250 0.232 14.371

Platforms 10.083 0.446 1.593 2.022 0.089 12.398 12.106 0.536 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.613 2.627 5.292 0.234 35.876 3.347 0.148 270.299 22.485 0.995 308.802

Pipeline 3.194 0.162 0.868 1.559 0.079 6.209 0.497 0.025 8.668 5.250 0.266 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.512 1.593 2.022 0.103 12.398 12.106 0.614 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.703 2.746 5.292 0.269 36.562 3.347 0.170 270.868 22.485 1.141 310.176

Pipeline 3.194 0.186 0.868 1.559 0.091 6.209 0.497 0.029 8.668 5.250 0.305 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.586 1.593 2.022 0.118 12.398 12.106 0.704 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.805 2.746 5.292 0.308 36.562 3.347 0.195 270.868 22.485 1.307 310.176

2033 17.2

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2024 74.8

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 3.194 0.211 0.868 1.559 0.103 6.209 0.497 0.033 8.668 5.250 0.348 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.668 1.593 2.022 0.134 12.398 12.106 0.802 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.917 2.746 5.292 0.350 36.562 3.347 0.222 270.868 22.485 1.489 310.176

Pipeline 3.194 0.242 0.868 1.559 0.118 6.209 0.497 0.038 8.668 5.250 0.398 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.764 1.593 2.022 0.153 12.398 12.106 0.917 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 1.049 2.746 5.292 0.401 36.562 3.347 0.254 270.868 22.485 1.703 310.176

Pipeline 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 0.370 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.989 1.629 3.146 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.544 13.349 1.608 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 0.420 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.124 1.629 3.146 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.544 13.349 1.829 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 0.472 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.263 1.629 3.146 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.544 13.349 2.054 184.935

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2034 15.1

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.06 0.032 0.19 1.990 0.300 25.80 0.553 27.822

2008 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

2009 0.33 0.077 0.27 2.605 0.381 36.96 0.984 39.642

2010 10.9 1.79 0.164 0.404 0.98 0.090 7.374 0.874 0.080 74.51 3.643 0.334 82.285

2011 19.9 2.89 0.145 0.570 1.13 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.45 4.767 0.240 70.019

2012 30.8 4.69 0.152 0.977 2.12 0.069 15.553 1.611 0.052 131.70 8.427 0.274 148.225

2013 50.7 7.30 0.144 1.528 3.23 0.064 22.766 2.335 0.046 193.01 12.860 0.254 217.300

2014 56.2 8.44 0.150 1.714 3.50 0.062 24.626 2.438 0.043 205.69 14.380 0.256 232.026

2015 64.2 10.41 0.162 2.181 4.40 0.069 29.675 2.865 0.045 227.67 17.681 0.275 259.522

2016 67.4 11.57 0.172 2.366 4.66 0.069 31.324 2.884 0.043 227.51 19.110 0.284 261.196

2017 77.4 14.16 0.183 2.956 5.82 0.075 38.333 3.561 0.046 273.83 23.533 0.304 315.118

2018 82.9 16.40 0.198 3.351 6.60 0.080 44.723 4.161 0.050 329.03 27.162 0.328 377.104

2019 104.6 20.46 0.196 4.239 8.21 0.079 53.775 4.906 0.047 376.47 33.582 0.321 434.488

2020 104.8 22.33 0.213 4.569 8.87 0.085 59.100 5.406 0.052 422.47 36.606 0.349 486.143

2021 98.6 24.20 0.245 4.898 9.52 0.097 64.425 5.906 0.060 468.47 39.629 0.402 537.797

2022 89.2 25.14 0.282 5.063 9.85 0.110 67.087 6.156 0.069 491.47 41.141 0.461 563.624

2023 81.4 25.14 0.309 5.063 9.85 0.121 67.087 6.156 0.076 491.47 41.141 0.505 563.624

2024 74.8 25.14 0.336 5.063 9.85 0.132 67.087 6.156 0.082 491.47 41.141 0.550 563.624

2025 62.5 22.52 0.360 4.542 8.82 0.141 59.878 5.488 0.088 436.93 36.821 0.589 501.347

2026 54.1 22.52 0.416 4.542 8.82 0.163 59.878 5.488 0.101 436.93 36.821 0.681 501.347

2027 44.6 19.90 0.446 4.021 7.78 0.175 52.669 4.819 0.108 382.38 32.502 0.729 439.069

2028 36.9 17.02 0.461 3.425 6.61 0.179 44.895 4.105 0.111 327.01 27.735 0.752 375.327

2029 32.2 17.02 0.529 3.425 6.61 0.205 44.895 4.105 0.127 327.01 27.735 0.861 375.327

2030 25.8 13.85 0.537 2.746 5.29 0.205 36.562 3.347 0.130 270.87 22.485 0.872 310.176

2031 22.6 13.85 0.613 2.627 5.29 0.234 35.876 3.347 0.148 270.30 22.485 0.995 308.802

2032 19.7 13.85 0.703 2.746 5.29 0.269 36.562 3.347 0.170 270.87 22.485 1.141 310.176

2033 17.2 13.85 0.805 2.746 5.29 0.308 36.562 3.347 0.195 270.87 22.485 1.307 310.176

2034 15.1 13.85 0.917 2.746 5.29 0.350 36.562 3.347 0.222 270.87 22.485 1.489 310.176

2035 13.2 13.85 1.049 2.746 5.29 0.401 36.562 3.347 0.254 270.87 22.485 1.703 310.176

2036 8.3 8.21 0.989 1.629 3.15 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.54 13.349 1.608 184.935

2037 7.3 8.21 1.124 1.629 3.15 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.54 13.349 1.829 184.935

2038 6.5 8.21 1.263 1.629 3.15 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.54 13.349 2.054 184.935

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

2009 0.073 0.036 0.218 2.285 0.381 36.960 0.672 39.281

2010 10.9 0.154 0.014 0.077 0.463 0.042 4.855 0.781 0.072 72.860 1.398 0.128 77.792

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.290 0.009 0.145 0.870 0.028 9.127 1.425 0.046 128.400 2.585 0.084 137.672

2013 50.7 0.397 0.008 0.199 1.192 0.024 12.508 2.009 0.040 187.240 3.598 0.071 199.947

2014 56.2 0.412 0.007 0.206 1.236 0.022 12.974 2.112 0.038 199.920 3.760 0.067 213.100

2015 64.2 0.468 0.007 0.234 1.403 0.022 14.727 2.356 0.037 218.660 4.227 0.066 233.621

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.572 0.007 0.286 1.715 0.022 18.005 2.850 0.037 261.300 5.137 0.066 279.591

2018 82.9 0.692 0.008 0.346 2.075 0.025 21.785 3.450 0.042 316.500 6.217 0.075 338.631

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - P/L

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - P/L

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Platforms

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Platforms

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Wells

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Wells

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.5.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

Large Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2002200120102003200420052006200720092008

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.1 
Table 4.5.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.1 
Table 4.5.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

1998 01999 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422000 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422001 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422002 101 2.968 0.029 0.172 7.383 0.073 2.857 10.351 0.102 3.029 5.314 0.053 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.422003 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422004 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422005 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422006 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422007 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422008 119 2.968 0.025 0.172 7.383 0.062 2.857 10.351 0.087 3.029 5.314 0.045 20.894 1.761 0.015 31.180 17.422009 103 2.968 0.029 0.172 7.383 0.072 2.857 10.351 0.100 3.029 5.314 0.052 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.422010 92 2.968 0.032 0.172 7.383 0.080 2.857 10.351 0.113 3.029 5.314 0.058 20.894 1.761 0.019 31.180 17.42

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.2 
Table 4.5.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 2 8 0.913 0.730 0.12 0.182 0.146 0.89

Total 2 8 0.730 0.12 0.146 0.89

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 4 48 0.913 4.380 0.69 0.182 0.875 5.37

Total 4 48 4.380 0.69 0.875 5.37

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 108 0.913 9.855 1.56 0.182 1.970 12.07

Total 6 108 9.855 1.56 1.970 12.07

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 188 0.913 17.156 2.71 0.182 3.428 21.02

Total 6 188 17.156 2.71 3.428 21.02

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0 0.730 0.115 0.146 0.894 0.876 1.010

2001 0 4.380 0.692 0.875 5.366 5.255 6.058

2002 101 9.855 0.098 1.557 1.970 0.020 12.073 11.825 0.117 13.630

2003 135 17.156 0.127 2.711 3.428 0.025 21.016 20.584 0.152 23.727

2004 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2005 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2006 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2007 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2008 119 19.528 0.164 3.085 3.903 0.033 23.923 23.431 0.197 27.008

2009 103 19.528 0.190 3.085 3.903 0.038 23.923 23.431 0.227 27.008

2010 92 19.528 0.212 3.085 3.903 0.042 23.923 23.431 0.255 27.008

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 8 0.500 0.040 0.02 3.500 0.280 1.26 1.500 0.120 2.40 1.000 0.080 16.00

Total 8 0.040 0.02 0.280 1.26 0.120 2.40 0.080 16.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 48 0.500 0.240 0.12 3.500 1.680 7.56 1.500 0.720 14.40 1.000 0.480 96.00

Total 48 0.240 0.12 1.680 7.56 0.720 14.40 0.480 96.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 108 0.500 0.540 0.27 3.500 3.780 17.01 1.500 1.620 32.40 1.000 1.080 216.00

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 188 0.500 0.940 0.47 3.500 6.580 29.61 1.500 2.820 56.40 1.000 1.880 376.00

Total 188 0.940 0.47 6.580 29.61 2.820 56.40 1.880 376.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0 0.040 0.020 0.120 1.260 0.200 18.400 0.360 19.680

2001 0 0.240 0.120 0.720 7.560 1.200 110.400 2.160 118.080

2002 101 0.540 0.005 0.270 1.620 0.016 17.010 2.700 0.027 248.400 4.860 0.048 265.680

2003 135 0.940 0.007 0.470 2.820 0.021 29.610 4.700 0.035 432.400 8.460 0.063 462.480

2004 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2005 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2006 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2007 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2008 119 1.070 0.009 0.535 3.210 0.027 33.705 5.350 0.045 492.200 9.630 0.081 526.440

2009 103 1.070 0.010 0.535 3.210 0.031 33.705 5.350 0.052 492.200 9.630 0.093 526.440

2010 92 1.070 0.012 0.535 3.210 0.035 33.705 5.350 0.058 492.200 9.630 0.105 526.440

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 101

2003 135

2004 135

2005 135

2006 135

2007 135

2008 119

2009 103

2010 92

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 101

2003 135

2004 135

2005 135

2006 135

2007 135

2008 119

2009 103

2010 92

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 0.730 0.115 0.146 0.894 0.876 1.010

Production Wells 0.040 0.020 0.120 1.260 0.200 18.400 0.360 19.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.121 3.165 5.580 23.048 1.961 49.580 18.662 75.793

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 4.380 0.692 0.875 5.366 5.255 6.058

Production Wells 0.240 0.120 0.720 7.560 1.200 110.400 2.160 118.080

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 14.971 3.841 6.909 33.820 2.961 141.580 24.841 179.241

Pipeline 10.351 0.102 3.029 5.314 0.053 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.426 0.173 55.103

Platforms 9.855 0.098 1.557 1.970 0.020 12.073 11.825 0.117 13.630

Production Wells 0.540 0.005 0.270 1.620 0.016 17.010 2.700 0.027 248.400 4.860 0.048 265.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.746 0.205 4.857 8.903 0.088 49.977 4.461 0.044 279.580 34.110 0.338 334.413

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 17.156 0.127 2.711 3.428 0.025 21.016 20.584 0.152 23.727

Production Wells 0.940 0.007 0.470 2.820 0.021 29.610 4.700 0.035 432.400 8.460 0.063 462.480

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.446 0.211 6.210 11.562 0.086 71.520 6.461 0.048 463.580 46.470 0.344 541.310

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

2006 135.0

2007 135.0

2005

2004 135.0

135.0

2002 101.0

2003 135.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 10.351 0.087 3.029 5.314 0.045 20.894 1.761 0.015 31.180 17.426 0.146 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.164 3.085 3.903 0.033 23.923 23.431 0.197 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.009 0.535 3.210 0.027 33.705 5.350 0.045 492.200 9.630 0.081 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.260 6.650 12.426 0.104 78.521 7.111 0.060 523.380 50.486 0.424 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.100 3.029 5.314 0.052 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.426 0.169 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.190 3.085 3.903 0.038 23.923 23.431 0.227 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.010 0.535 3.210 0.031 33.705 5.350 0.052 492.200 9.630 0.093 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.300 6.650 12.426 0.121 78.521 7.111 0.069 523.380 50.486 0.490 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.113 3.029 5.314 0.058 20.894 1.761 0.019 31.180 17.426 0.189 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.212 3.085 3.903 0.042 23.923 23.431 0.255 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.012 0.535 3.210 0.035 33.705 5.350 0.058 492.200 9.630 0.105 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.336 6.650 12.426 0.135 78.521 7.111 0.077 523.380 50.486 0.549 608.551

2010 92.0

2008 119.0

2009 103.0

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

1999 0 10.35 3.029 5.31 20.894 1.761 31.18 17.426 55.103

2000 0 11.12 3.165 5.58 23.048 1.961 49.58 18.662 75.793

2001 0 14.97 3.841 6.91 33.820 2.961 141.58 24.841 179.241

2002 101.0 20.75 0.205 4.857 8.90 0.088 49.977 4.461 0.044 279.58 34.110 0.338 334.413

2003 135.0 28.45 0.211 6.210 11.56 0.086 71.520 6.461 0.048 463.58 46.470 0.344 541.310

2004 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2005 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2006 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2007 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2008 119.0 30.95 0.260 6.650 12.43 0.104 78.521 7.111 0.060 523.38 50.486 0.424 608.551

2009 103.0 30.95 0.300 6.650 12.43 0.121 78.521 7.111 0.069 523.38 50.486 0.490 608.551

2010 92.0 30.95 0.336 6.650 12.43 0.135 78.521 7.111 0.077 523.38 50.486 0.549 608.551

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.12 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.1 

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency

05

101520253035404550556065

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.2 

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.3 

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Index

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600650

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.6.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

Large Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2002200120102003200420052006200720092008

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.1 
Table 4.6.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.1 
Table 4.6.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

1998 01999 02000 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422001 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422002 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422003 223 2.968 0.013 0.172 7.383 0.033 2.857 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.024 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.422004 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422005 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422006 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422007 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422008 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422009 262 2.968 0.011 0.172 7.383 0.028 2.857 10.351 0.040 3.029 5.314 0.020 20.894 1.761 0.007 31.180 17.422010 227 2.968 0.013 0.172 7.383 0.033 2.857 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.023 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.42

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.2 
Table 4.6.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 2 0.913 0.182

Total 2

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 8 50 0.913 4.563 0.72 0.182 0.912 5.59

Total 8 50 4.563 0.72 0.912 5.59

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 130 0.913 11.863 1.87 0.182 2.371 14.53

Total 12 130 11.863 1.87 2.371 14.53

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 270 0.913 24.638 3.89 0.182 4.924 30.18

Total 12 270 24.638 3.89 4.924 30.18

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 410 0.913 37.414 5.91 0.182 7.477 45.83

Total 12 410 37.414 5.91 7.477 45.83

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 4.563 0.721 0.912 5.589 5.474 6.310

2002 0 11.863 1.874 2.371 14.532 14.234 16.407

2003 223 24.638 0.110 3.893 4.924 0.022 30.183 29.562 0.133 34.076

2004 297 37.414 0.126 5.911 7.477 0.025 45.833 44.891 0.151 51.744

2005 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2006 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2007 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2008 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2009 262 43.984 0.168 6.949 8.790 0.034 53.882 52.774 0.201 60.831

2010 227 43.984 0.194 6.949 8.790 0.039 53.882 52.774 0.232 60.831

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 50 0.500 0.250 0.13 3.500 1.750 7.88 1.500 0.750 15.00 1.000 0.500 100.00

Total 50 0.250 0.13 1.750 7.88 0.750 15.00 0.500 100.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 130 0.500 0.650 0.33 3.500 4.550 20.48 1.500 1.950 39.00 1.000 1.300 260.00

Total 130 0.650 0.33 4.550 20.48 1.950 39.00 1.300 260.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 270 0.500 1.350 0.68 3.500 9.450 42.53 1.500 4.050 81.00 1.000 2.700 540.00

Total 270 1.350 0.68 9.450 42.53 4.050 81.00 2.700 540.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 410 0.500 2.050 1.03 3.500 14.350 64.58 1.500 6.150 123.00 1.000 4.100 820.00

Total 410 2.050 1.03 14.350 64.58 6.150 123.00 4.100 820.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

2002 0 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

2003 223 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

2004 297 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

2005 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2006 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2007 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2008 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2009 262 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

2010 227 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3 3.160 0.095 0.05 22.110 0.663 2.98 9.500 0.285 5.70 5.500 0.165 33.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

1999 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2000 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

1999 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.108 0.054 0.324 3.393 0.528 47.280 0.960 50.727

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.076 0.038 0.229 2.399 0.378 34.380 0.683 36.817

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 10.414 3.061 5.504 22.884 2.061 56.980 17.979 82.925

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 4.563 0.721 0.912 5.589 5.474 6.310

Production Wells 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 15.163 3.875 6.976 34.358 3.011 146.180 25.150 184.414

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 11.863 1.874 2.371 14.532 14.234 16.407

Production Wells 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.864 5.229 9.634 55.901 5.011 330.180 37.509 391.310

Pipeline 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.024 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.426 0.078 55.103

Platforms 24.638 0.110 3.893 4.924 0.022 30.183 29.562 0.133 34.076

Production Wells 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 36.339 0.163 7.597 14.288 0.064 93.601 8.511 0.038 652.180 59.138 0.265 753.379

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 37.414 0.126 5.911 7.477 0.025 45.833 44.891 0.151 51.744

Production Wells 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 49.814 0.168 9.966 18.941 0.064 131.302 12.011 0.040 974.180 80.766 0.272 1115.448

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2006 297.0

2007 297.0

2005

2004 297.0

297.0

2002 0

2003 223.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.040 3.029 5.314 0.020 20.894 1.761 0.007 31.180 17.426 0.067 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.168 6.949 8.790 0.034 53.882 52.774 0.201 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.217 11.184 21.334 0.081 150.690 13.811 0.053 1139.780 91.889 0.351 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.023 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.426 0.077 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.194 6.949 8.790 0.039 53.882 52.774 0.232 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.250 11.184 21.334 0.094 150.690 13.811 0.061 1139.780 91.889 0.405 1301.654

2010 227.0

2008 297.0

2009 262.0

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.11 0.054 0.32 3.393 0.528 47.28 0.960 50.727

1999 0 0.08 0.038 0.23 2.399 0.378 34.38 0.683 36.817

2000 0 10.41 3.061 5.50 22.884 2.061 56.98 17.979 82.925

2001 0 15.16 3.875 6.98 34.358 3.011 146.18 25.150 184.414

2002 0 22.86 5.229 9.63 55.901 5.011 330.18 37.509 391.310

2003 223 36.34 0.163 7.597 14.29 0.064 93.601 8.511 0.038 652.18 59.138 0.265 753.379

2004 297 49.81 0.168 9.966 18.94 0.064 131.302 12.011 0.040 974.18 80.766 0.272 1115.448

2005 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2006 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2007 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2008 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2009 262 56.74 0.217 11.184 21.33 0.081 150.690 13.811 0.053 1139.78 91.889 0.351 1301.654

2010 227 56.74 0.250 11.184 21.33 0.094 150.690 13.811 0.061 1139.78 91.889 0.405 1301.654

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.12 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.1 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency

0

20406080

100120

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.2 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.3 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.6A.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

2002200120102003200420052006200720092008

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.1 
Table 4.6A.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.1 
Table 4.6A.2

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

1998 01999 02000 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482001 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482002 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482003 223 5.798 0.026 0.336 14.494 0.065 5.609 20.292 0.091 5.945 17.393 0.078 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482004 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482005 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482006 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482007 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482008 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482009 262 5.798 0.022 0.336 14.494 0.055 5.609 20.292 0.077 5.945 17.393 0.066 68.389 5.798 0.022 102.647 43.482010 227 5.798 0.026 0.336 14.494 0.064 5.609 20.292 0.089 5.945 17.393 0.077 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.48

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.2 
Table 4.6A.3

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 2 1.504 0.251

Total 2

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 8 50 1.504 7.518 1.19 0.251 1.253 7.68

Total 8 50 7.518 1.19 1.253 7.68

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 130 1.504 19.547 3.09 0.251 3.258 19.97

Total 12 130 19.547 3.09 3.258 19.97

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 270 1.504 40.597 6.41 0.251 6.766 41.48

Total 12 270 40.597 6.41 6.766 41.48

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 410 1.504 61.647 9.74 0.251 10.274 62.98

Total 12 410 61.647 9.74 10.274 62.98

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.4

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 7.518 1.188 1.253 7.681 8.771 8.869

2002 0 19.547 3.088 3.258 19.970 22.804 23.058

2003 223 40.597 0.182 6.414 6.766 0.030 41.476 47.363 0.212 47.891

2004 297 61.647 0.208 9.740 10.274 0.035 62.983 71.921 0.242 72.723

2005 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2006 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2007 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2008 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2009 262 72.473 0.277 11.451 12.079 0.046 74.043 84.552 0.323 85.494

2010 227 72.473 0.319 11.451 12.079 0.053 74.043 84.552 0.372 85.494

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.5

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 50 0.500 0.250 0.13 3.500 1.750 7.88 1.500 0.750 15.00 1.000 0.500 100.00

Total 50 0.250 0.13 1.750 7.88 0.750 15.00 0.500 100.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 130 0.500 0.650 0.33 3.500 4.550 20.48 1.500 1.950 39.00 1.000 1.300 260.00

Total 130 0.650 0.33 4.550 20.48 1.950 39.00 1.300 260.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 270 0.500 1.350 0.68 3.500 9.450 42.53 1.500 4.050 81.00 1.000 2.700 540.00

Total 270 1.350 0.68 9.450 42.53 4.050 81.00 2.700 540.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 410 0.500 2.050 1.03 3.500 14.350 64.58 1.500 6.150 123.00 1.000 4.100 820.00

Total 410 2.050 1.03 14.350 64.58 6.150 123.00 4.100 820.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.6

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

2002 0 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

2003 223 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

2004 297 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

2005 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2006 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2007 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2008 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2009 262 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

2010 227 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.7

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3 3.160 0.095 0.05 22.110 0.663 2.98 9.500 0.285 5.70 5.500 0.165 33.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2001

Year

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

1999

2000

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.8

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

1999 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2000 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.9

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.10

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

1999 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.108 0.054 0.324 3.393 0.528 47.280 0.960 50.727

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.076 0.038 0.229 2.399 0.378 34.380 0.683 36.817

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 20.355 5.977 17.583 70.379 6.098 128.447 44.035 204.803

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms 7.518 1.188 1.253 7.681 8.771 8.869

Production Wells 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.060 7.258 19.396 83.945 7.048 217.647 54.503 308.850

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms 19.547 3.088 3.258 19.970 22.804 23.058

Production Wells 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.488 9.359 22.601 108.834 9.048 401.647 72.137 519.840

Pipeline 20.292 0.091 5.945 17.393 0.078 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.195 176.982

Platforms 40.597 0.182 6.414 6.766 0.030 41.476 47.363 0.212 47.891

Production Wells 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 62.238 0.279 13.035 28.209 0.126 152.390 12.548 0.056 723.647 102.995 0.462 889.072

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 61.647 0.208 9.740 10.274 0.035 62.983 71.921 0.242 72.723

Production Wells 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 83.989 0.283 16.711 33.817 0.114 195.947 16.048 0.054 1045.647 133.854 0.451 1258.304

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2006 297.0

2007 297.0

2005

2004 297.0

297.0

2002 0

2003 223.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.077 5.945 17.393 0.066 68.389 5.798 0.022 102.647 43.482 0.166 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.277 11.451 12.079 0.046 74.043 84.552 0.323 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.363 18.601 36.702 0.140 218.347 17.848 0.068 1211.247 149.724 0.571 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.089 5.945 17.393 0.077 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.192 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.319 11.451 12.079 0.053 74.043 84.552 0.372 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.419 18.601 36.702 0.162 218.347 17.848 0.079 1211.247 149.724 0.660 1448.195

2010 227.0

2008 297.0

2009 262.0

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.12

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.11 0.054 0.32 3.393 0.528 47.28 0.960 50.727

1999 0 0.08 0.038 0.23 2.399 0.378 34.38 0.683 36.817

2000 0 20.35 5.977 17.58 70.379 6.098 128.45 44.035 204.803

2001 0 28.06 7.258 19.40 83.945 7.048 217.65 54.503 308.850

2002 0 40.49 9.359 22.60 108.834 9.048 401.65 72.137 519.840

2003 223 62.24 0.279 13.035 28.21 0.126 152.390 12.548 0.056 723.65 102.995 0.462 889.072

2004 297 83.99 0.283 16.711 33.82 0.114 195.947 16.048 0.054 1045.65 133.854 0.451 1258.304

2005 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2006 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2007 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2008 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2009 262 95.17 0.363 18.601 36.70 0.140 218.347 17.848 0.068 1211.25 149.724 0.571 1448.195

2010 227 95.17 0.419 18.601 36.70 0.162 218.347 17.848 0.079 1211.25 149.724 0.660 1448.195

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.12 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.1 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency - Non Arctic

0

102030405060708090

100110120130140150

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.2 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.3 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index - Non Arctic

0

100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.4 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency 

0

102030405060708090

100110120130140150

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.5 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.6 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Table 5.1

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Year2016 

Year2019 

Year2024 

Year2024 

Year2024 

Year2010 

Year2010 

Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale All Sale All Non Arctic Base Case High Case 

SM 8.41 8.51 8.21 25.14 43.11 30.95 56.74 

L 3.38 3.32 3.15 9.85 17.83 12.43 21.33 

H 2.09 2.07 1.99 6.16 8.31 7.11 13.81 

All 13.89 13.90 13.35 41.14 69.25 50.49 91.89 

SM 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.34 0.58 0.34 0.25 

L 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.13 0.24 0.14 0.09 

H 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.06 

All 0.29 0.33 0.35 0.55 0.93 0.55 0.40 

Maximum Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced (year varies) All 2.02 2.47 2.05 2.05 3.39 0.55 0.40 

SM 2 2 2 5 9 7 11 

L 23 23 22 67 102 79 151 

H 165 165 162 491 529 523 1140 

All 190 189 185 564 640 609 1302 

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Size

bbl x 1000

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.1 
Table 5.2

Composition of Spill Indicators

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platforms Wells TO

10.15 21.72 9.27 41.14 17.43 52.77 21.69 9

25% 53% 23% 100% 19% 57% 24% 10

0.14 0.29 0.12 0.55 0.08 0.23 0.10 0

25% 53% 23% 100% 19% 57% 24% 10

32 25 507 564 55 61 1186 1

6% 4% 90% 100% 4% 5% 91% 10

Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS Sale All - Year 2024 High Case - Year 2010

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]

Beaufort Sea

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.2 
Table 5.3

Composition of Spill Indicators

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platform

Monte Carlo 15.55 25.11 9.27 49.93 21.18 67.03 

Expected Value 10.15 21.72 9.27 41.14 17.43 52.77 

Difference 53% 16% 0% 21% 22% 27% 

Monte Carlo 0.21 0.34 0.12 0.67 0.09 0.3 

Expected Value 0.14 0.29 0.12 0.55 0.08 0.23 

Difference 55% 17% 0% 23% 17% 29% 

Monte Carlo 56 29 507 592 73 76 

Expected Value 32 25 507 564 55 61 

Difference 76% 15% 0% 5% 32% 25% 

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl 

produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Chu

SPILL INDICATORS Sale All - Year 2024 High Cas

Beaufort Sea

ITEM 

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.3 
Figure 5.1

Baufort Sea Sale All - 2024 year - Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

25%

52% 23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

52%

25%

23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.55

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

6% 4%

90%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 564

41.14

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.1 11/1/2002
Figure 5.2

Baufort Sea Sale All - 2024 year - Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

61%

24%

15%

SM L H

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

24%

61% 15%

SM L H

0.55

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

1%

12%

87%

SM L H

564

41.14

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.2 11/1/2002
Figure 5.3

Chukchi Sea High Case - 2010 year - Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

19%

57%

24%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 91.89

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

19%

57%

24%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.40

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

5% 4%

91%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 1302

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.3 11/1/2002
Figure 5.4

Chukchi Sea High Case - 2010 year - Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000

62%

23%

15%

SM L H

91.89

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size X 1000

62%

23%

15%

SM L H

0.40

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill Size x 1000

1%

13%

86%

SM L H

1302

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.4 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

APPENDIX

C TITLE

T.4.1.14 Monte Carlo Results - Sale 1 - Year 2016

F.4.1.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.1.13 CDF - Sale 1 - Year 2016

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 2

T.4.2.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

T.4.2.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

T.4.2.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

T.4.2.14 Monte Carlo Results - Sale 2 - Year 2019

F.4.2.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.2.13 CDF - Sale 2 - Year 2019

4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 3

T.4.3.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline

T.4.3.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.3.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

T.4.3.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.3.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

T.4.3.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.3.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

T.4.3.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.3.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells

Bercha Group C0 Appendix C TOC.xlsTOC 10/31/2002
T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

APPENDIX

C TITLE

T.4.3.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.3.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

T.4.3.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

T.4.3.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

T.4.3.14 Monte Carlo Results - Sale 3 - Year 2024

F.4.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

F.4.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

F.4.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.3.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.3.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.3.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.3.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.3.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.3.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.3.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.3.13 CDF - Sale 3 - Year 2024

4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

T.4.4.14 Monte Carlo Results - All Sales - Year 2024

F.4.4.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4.13 CDF - All Sales - Year 2024

4.4A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

Bercha Group C0 Appendix C TOC.xlsTOC 10/31/2002
T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

APPENDIX

C TITLE

T.4.4A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4A.13 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

F.4.4A.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4A.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4A.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4A.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4A.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4A.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4A.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4A.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4A.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4A.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4A.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4A.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4A.13 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.14 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.15 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea Base Case

T.4.5.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline

T.4.5.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.5.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms

T.4.5.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.5.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells

T.4.5.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.5.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.5.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.5.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells

T.4.5.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.5.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Summary

T.4.5.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Annual Summary

T.4.5.13 Monte Carlo Results - Base Case - Year 2010

F.4.5.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency

F.4.5.2 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.5.3 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Index

F.4.5.4 CDF - Base Case- Year 2010

4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

Bercha Group C0 Appendix C TOC.xlsTOC 10/31/2002
T.0 Appendix C Table of Contents

APPENDIX

C TITLE

T.4.6.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

T.4.6.13 Monte Carlo Results - High Case - Year 2010

F.4.6.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.6.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6.4 CDF - High Case- Year 2010

4.6A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6A.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6A.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.6A.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6A.4 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.5 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.6 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

T.5.2 Composition of Spill Indicators

F.5.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Year 2024 Spill Indicators

F.5.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Year 2024 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

F.5.3 Chukchi Sea High Case year 2010 Spill Indicators

F.5.4 Chukchi Sea High Case year 2010 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

Bercha Group C0 Appendix C TOC.xlsTOC 10/31/2002
Figure T.0 Flow Chart

Fault Tree Analysis Hazard Scenarios 

Spill Size

Frequency and Cause Arctic Spill Frequency Annual 

Small Spill >=50<100 bbl Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

<10" Dia

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Medium Spill >=100<1000 bbl

Pipeline

Large Spill >=1000<10000 bblHuge Spill >= 10000 bbl

>=10" Dia

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 mDeep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 mLarge Spill Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Spill >=10000<150000 bblSpill >=150000 bbl

Development Well D.

Chukchi Sea

Base Case

Chukchi Sea

High Case

Chukchi Sea

High Case Non Artic

Beaufort Sea

All Sales

Production WellExploration Well D.

Beaufort Sea

All Sales Non Arctic

Facility

Historical Data Analysis

Platform

Beaufort Sea

Sale 2

Beaufort Sea

Sale 3

Beaufort Sea

Sale 1

Bercha Group C0 Appendix C TOC.xlsFlow Chart 
Table 1.1

Analysis of Historical Spills - P/L

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S M L H S

CORROSION 4 121 

External 1 80 1 Internal 3 100 5000 414 2 1 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 16 2563 Anchor Impact 10 19833 65 50 300 900 323 15576 2000 800 1211 2422 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 1 3200 1 

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 4000 100 14423 4569 4533 1 3 1 OPERATION IMPACT 4 3 1 

Rig Anchoring 1 50 1 Work Boat Anchoring 3 50 5100 50 2 1 MECHANICAL 2 2 

Connection Failure 1 135 1 

Material Failure 1 210 1 

NATURAL HAZARD 4 112 

Mud Slide 3 250 80 8212 1 1 1 Storm/ Hurricane 1 3500 1 

ARCTICIce GougingStrudel ScourUpheaval BucklingThaw SettlementOtherUNKNOWN 1 119 1 

TOTALS 31 7 11 10 3 

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

NUMBER

OF SPILLS

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.1 
Table 1.2

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - P/L

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [km-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4km-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [km-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4km-year

CORROSION 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394External 5.56 1 0.0394Internal 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 7 0.2757 69.23 9 0.3545Anchor Impact 33.33 6 0.2363 30.77 4 0.1575Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 1 0.0394Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 1 0.0394 30.77 4 0.1575

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394

Rig Anchoring 5.56 1 0.0394Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394MECHANICAL 11.11 2 0.0788Connection Failure 5.56 1 0.0394Material Failure 5.56 1 0.0394NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 2 0.0788 15.38 2 0.0788Mud Slide 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 1 0.0394ARCTICIce GougingStrudel ScourUpheaval BucklingThaw SettlementOtherUNKNOWN 5.56 1 0.0394TOTALS 100.00 18 0.7089 100.00 13 0.5120

Large and Huge Spills

253903 253903

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.2 
Table 1.2A

Historical Spills Data Pipeline

Exposure** Frequ

Number Average Median

of Spills Volume Volume km-years spill 

bbl bbl 10^4 km

By Pipe Diameter

<10" 16 2141 173 142,892 1.11

>=10" 15 4070 1211 111,011 1.35

By Pipeline Minimum Depth

Bad Depth Data* 14

<10m 6 2310 1211 161,966 0.37

>=10m 11 3165 1040 94,641 1.16

By Segment Length

<0.5km 0 0 0 2,359 0.00

>=0.5<2km 2 2335 2335 25,484 0.78

>=2<5km 7 820 100 35,279 1.98

>=5km 22 3859 850 192,270 1.14

By Spill Size

Small 6 58 50 253,903 0.23

Medium 12 317 230 253,903 0.47

Large 10 4133 4267 253,903 0.39

Huge 3 16611 15576 253,903 0.11

By Diameter, By Spill Size

<10" Small 4 58 50 142,892 0.27

Medium 7 266 135 142,892 0.48

Large 4 4436 4551 142,892 0.27

Huge 1 14423 14423 142,892 0.07

>=10" Small 2 58 58 111,011 0.18

Medium 5 387 312 111,011 0.45

Large 6 3932 3600 111,011 0.54

Huge 2 17705 17705 111,011 0.18

*14 of the 31 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to "0".**Exposure comes from an analysis of PPL_MASTERS database as published on Feb 15, 2001.

Spill Statistics

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills, Categorized 1972-99

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.2A 
Table 1.3

Analysis of Historical Data - Spills - Platforms

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 S M 

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 13 130 50 120 104 60 1456 125 50 50 55 400 280 75 6 6 

STORAGE TANK RLS. 3 9935 7000 435 1STRUCTURAL FAILURE 1 58 1 HURRICANE/STORM 2 75 66 2 COLLISION 2 600 108 2 

ARCTICIce ForceFacility Low TemperatureOtherTOTALS 21 9 9 

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

N

OF 

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.3 
Table 1.4

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [well-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4well-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSU RE [well- years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4well-year

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 12 1.0024 33.33 1 0.0835STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 1 0.0835 66.67 2 0.1671STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 1 0.0835HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 2 0.1671COLLISION 11.11 2 0.1671ARCTICIce ForceFacility Low TemperatureOtherTOTALS 100.00 18 1.5036 100.00 3 0.2506

119714

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

119714

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.4 
Table 1.5

Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

PRODUCTION WELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.50 3.50 4.00 1.50 1.00

EXPLORATION WELLDRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.16 22.11 25.27 9.50 5.50

DEVELOPMENT WELLDRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.30 9.08 10.38 3.90 3.90

Spill >=150000 bbl EVENT

FREQUENCY UNIT

Small, Medium, and Large Spills

Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spills

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.5 
Table 1.5A

Historical Spills Data - Wells

Event Historical Frequency Experience 

Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 7.8 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present S

Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 1.5 x 10-4/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SDevelopment drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 3.9 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SExploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 5.5 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SBlowout during production and workovers involving some oil discharge >1 bbl 6.5 x 10-5/well-years U.S. OCS, 1964 - 1995 SL Ross 

 Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 2.5 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present S

 Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 1.0 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present S

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.5A 
Table 2.1

Fault Tree Analysis Input Rationalization - P/L

Shallow Medium Deep

External All (50) (50) (50) Low temperature and bio effects. Extra smart pigging.

Internal All (30) (30) (30) Extra smart pigging.

Anchor Impact All (90) (90) (90) Low traffic.

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (50) (50) (50) Low facility density.

Trawl/Fishing Net All (90) (90) (90) Low fishing activity.

Rig Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No marine traffic during ice season (8 months).

Work Boat Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No work boat traffic during ice season (8 months). 

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (80) (60) (40) Gradient low. Mud slide potential (gradient) increases with water 

depth.

Storm/ Hurricane All (50) (50) (50) Fewer severe storms.

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.3495 0.1747

0.0680 0.0340

0.6178 0.3089

0.1210 0.0605

1.3438 0.6719

0.2610 0.1305

0.3762 0.1881

0.0730 0.0365

0.0021

0.0012

0.0038

0.0020

0.0082

0.0045

0.0023

0.0012

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0016 0.0016 0.0016

0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0881 0.0438 0.0002

0.0174 0.0086 0.0001

0.1557 0.0775 0.0003

0.0309 0.0153 0.0002

0.3386 0.1686 0.0006

0.0667 0.0330 0.0003

0.0948 0.0472 0.0002

0.0187 0.0092 0.0001

S

M

L

H

L

H

S

M

All water depth. The failure frequency is 10% of that of Strudel Scour.

To be assessed as 25% of above.

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

Other

Thaw Settlement

Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Only in shallow water. Average frequency of 4 scours/mile^2 and 100 

ft of bridge length with 10% conditional P/L failure probability. The 

same spill size distribution as above.

All water depth. The failure frequency is 20% of that of Strudel Scour.

Ice Gouging

Ice gouge failure rate calculated using exponential failure distribution 

for 2.5-m cover, 0.2-m average gouge depth, 4 gouges per km-yr 

flux. Spill size Distribution explained in text Section 2.5.2

S

M

L

H

Reason

Freq. Increment per 10^5 km-year

Spill 

Size

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Frequency Change %

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.1 Milan Cerovsek 10/24/2002
Table 2.1A

Monte Carlo Input - Pipeline

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected High

External All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Internal All (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45)

Anchor Impact All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Trawl/Fishing Net All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Rig Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Work Boat Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (50) (80) (90) (30) (60) (90) (20) (40) (60)

Storm/ Hurricane All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0030 0.0340 0.4145

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0045 0.0605 0.7335

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0105 0.1305 1.5950

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0030 0.0365 0.4465

S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

S 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044

M 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078

L 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170

H 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048

S 0.00162 0.01738 0.20869 0.00078 0.00859 0.10396 0.00003 0.00009 0.00033

M 0.00246 0.03092 0.36929 0.00117 0.01528 0.18396 0.00005 0.00015 0.00059

L 0.00571 0.06670 0.80303 0.00273 0.03296 0.40003 0.00011 0.00033 0.00128

H 0.00163 0.01865 0.22480 0.00078 0.00922 0.11198 0.00003 0.00009 0.00036

Frequency Increment per 10^5km-year

Ice Gouging

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Shallow Medium Deep

Frequency Change % Spill 

Size

Other

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT21A Milan Cerovsek 10/24/2002
Table 2.2

FTA Input Rationalization Platforms

Shallow Medium Deep

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (50) (50) (50) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (30) (30) (30) High safety factor, Monitoring Programs

HURRICANE/STORM All (80) (80) (80) Less severe storms.

COLLISION All (90) (90) (90) Very low traffic density.

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.1447 0.2170 0.3256

0.0340 0.0510 0.0765

0.0255 0.0383 0.0575

0.0060 0.0090 0.0135

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0244 0.0316 0.0424

0.0134 0.0151 0.0177

0.0033 0.0046 0.0065

0.0014 0.0017 0.0022

Freq. Increment per 10^4 well-year

ARCTIC

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Reason Spill 

Size

Frequency Change %

10% of above.

Assumed 10% of Historical Process Facilities release frequency and coresponding 

spill size distribution.

Ice Force

LH

SM

Assumed 1/10000 years ice force causes spill. 85% of the spills are SM.

Facility Low Temperature

LH

SM

Other

LH

SM

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.2 Milan Cerovsek 10/24/2002
Table 2.2A

Monte Carlo Input - Platforms

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected 

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) STORAGE TANK RLS. All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) HURRICANE/STORM All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) COLLISION All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) 

SM 0.003 0.034 0.340 0.005 0.051 0.510 0.008 0.077 

LH 0.001 0.006 0.060 0.001 0.009 0.090 0.001 0.014 

SM 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 

LH 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 

SM 0.005 0.013 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.066 0.006 0.018 

LH 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.001 0.002 

Frequency Increment per 10^4 well-year

Facility Low TemperatureOther

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

ARCTICIce Force

Shallow

Spill 

Size

Medium Deep

Frequency Change %

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT22A 
Table 2.3

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 16.67 0.467 (0.171) 0.295 15.71 (0.171) 0.295 17.42 (0.171) 0.295 19.18 0.300 (0.110) 0.190 13.91 (0.110) 0.190 

External 5.56 0.156 (0.078) 0.078 4.14 (0.078) 0.078 4.58 (0.078) 0.078 5.05 0.100 (0.050) 0.050 3.66 (0.050) 0.050 Internal 11.11 0.311 (0.093) 0.218 11.58 (0.093) 0.218 12.83 (0.093) 0.218 14.13 0.200 (0.060) 0.140 10.25 (0.060) 0.140 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 1.089 (0.871) 0.218 11.58 (0.871) 0.218 12.83 (0.871) 0.218 14.13 0.701 (0.561) 0.140 10.25 (0.561) 0.140 Anchor Impact 33.33 0.933 (0.746) 0.187 9.93 (0.746) 0.187 11.00 (0.746) 0.187 12.11 0.601 (0.480) 0.120 8.79 (0.480) 0.120 Jackup Rig or Spud BargeTrawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.156 (0.124) 0.031 1.65 (0.124) 0.031 1.83 (0.124) 0.031 2.02 0.100 (0.080) 0.020 1.46 (0.080) 0.020 OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.467 (0.093) 0.373 19.85 (0.093) 0.373 22.00 (0.093) 0.373 24.23 0.300 (0.060) 0.240 17.57 (0.060) 0.240 Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.156 (0.031) 0.124 6.62 (0.031) 0.124 7.33 (0.031) 0.124 8.08 0.100 (0.020) 0.080 5.86 (0.020) 0.080 Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.311 (0.062) 0.249 13.23 (0.062) 0.249 14.67 (0.062) 0.249 16.15 0.200 (0.040) 0.160 11.71 (0.040) 0.160 MECHANICAL 11.11 0.311 0.311 16.54 0.311 18.33 0.311 20.19 0.200 0.200 14.64 0.200 Connection Failure 5.56 0.156 0.156 8.27 0.156 9.17 0.156 10.10 0.100 0.100 7.32 0.100 Material Failure 5.56 0.156 0.156 8.27 0.156 9.17 0.156 10.10 0.100 0.100 7.32 0.100 NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.311 (0.224) 0.087 4.62 (0.187) 0.124 7.33 (0.124) 0.187 12.11 0.200 (0.144) 0.056 4.09 (0.120) 0.080 Mud Slide 11.11 0.311 (0.224) 0.087 4.62 (0.187) 0.124 7.33 (0.124) 0.187 12.11 0.200 (0.144) 0.056 4.09 (0.120) 0.080 Storm/ HurricaneARCTIC 0.440 0.440 23.42 0.219 0.219 12.92 0.001 0.001 0.05 0.440 0.440 32.21 0.219 0.219 Ice Gouging 0.3495 0.3495 18.59 0.1747 0.1747 10.30 0.3495 0.3495 25.56 0.1747 0.1747 Strudel Scour 0.0021 0.0021 0.11 0.0021 0.0021 0.16Upheaval Buckling 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0004 0.0004 Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 Other 0.0881 0.0881 4.68 0.0438 0.0438 2.58 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0881 0.0881 6.44 0.0438 0.0438 UNKNOWN 5.56 0.156 0.156 8.27 0.156 9.17 0.156 10.10 0.100 0.100 7.32 0.100 TOTALS 100.00 2.799 (0.919) 1.880 100.00 (1.103) 1.697 100.00 (1.259) 1.540 100.00 1.802 (0.435) 1.367 100.00 (0.632) 1.170 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

SMALL SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium 

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.3 
Table 2.4

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 16.67 0.816 (0.299) 0.517 15.68 (0.299) 0.517 17.39 (0.299) 0.517 19.18 0.751 (0.275) 0.475 15.36 (0.275) 0.475 

External 5.56 0.272 (0.136) 0.136 4.13 (0.136) 0.136 4.58 (0.136) 0.136 5.05 0.250 (0.125) 0.125 4.04 (0.125) 0.125 Internal 11.11 0.544 (0.163) 0.381 11.55 (0.163) 0.381 12.82 (0.163) 0.381 14.13 0.500 (0.150) 0.350 11.32 (0.150) 0.350 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 1.905 (1.524) 0.381 11.55 (1.524) 0.381 12.82 (1.524) 0.381 14.13 1.752 (1.401) 0.350 11.32 (1.401) 0.350 Anchor Impact 33.33 1.633 (1.306) 0.327 9.90 (1.306) 0.327 10.98 (1.306) 0.327 12.11 1.501 (1.201) 0.300 9.70 (1.201) 0.300 Jackup Rig or Spud BargeTrawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.272 (0.218) 0.054 1.65 (0.218) 0.054 1.83 (0.218) 0.054 2.02 0.250 (0.200) 0.050 1.62 (0.200) 0.050 OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.816 (0.163) 0.653 19.80 (0.163) 0.653 21.97 (0.163) 0.653 24.23 0.751 (0.150) 0.601 19.40 (0.150) 0.601 Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.272 (0.054) 0.218 6.60 (0.054) 0.218 7.32 (0.054) 0.218 8.08 0.250 (0.050) 0.200 6.47 (0.050) 0.200 Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.544 (0.109) 0.435 13.20 (0.109) 0.435 14.65 (0.109) 0.435 16.15 0.500 (0.100) 0.400 12.93 (0.100) 0.400 MECHANICAL 11.11 0.544 0.544 16.50 0.544 18.31 0.544 20.19 0.500 0.500 16.17 0.500 Connection Failure 5.56 0.272 0.272 8.25 0.272 9.15 0.272 10.10 0.250 0.250 8.08 0.250 Material Failure 5.56 0.272 0.272 8.25 0.272 9.15 0.272 10.10 0.250 0.250 8.08 0.250 NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.544 (0.392) 0.152 4.61 (0.327) 0.218 7.32 (0.218) 0.327 12.11 0.500 (0.361) 0.140 4.52 (0.300) 0.200 Mud Slide 11.11 0.544 (0.392) 0.152 4.61 (0.327) 0.218 7.32 (0.218) 0.327 12.11 0.500 (0.361) 0.140 4.52 (0.300) 0.200 Storm/ HurricaneARCTIC 0.778 0.778 23.60 0.388 0.388 13.04 0.001 0.001 0.05 0.778 0.778 25.15 0.388 0.388 Ice Gouging 0.6178 0.6178 18.73 0.3089 0.3089 10.39 0.6178 0.6178 19.96 0.3089 0.3089 Strudel Scour 0.0038 0.0038 0.11 0.0038 0.0038 0.12Upheaval Buckling 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 Thaw Settlement 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 Other 0.1557 0.1557 4.72 0.0775 0.0775 2.61 0.0003 0.0003 0.01 0.1557 0.1557 5.03 0.0775 0.0775 UNKNOWN 5.56 0.272 0.272 8.25 0.272 9.15 0.272 10.10 0.250 0.250 8.08 0.250 TOTALS 100.00 4.899 (1.600) 3.298 100.00 (1.926) 2.973 100.00 (2.203) 2.696 100.00 4.504 (1.409) 3.095 100.00 (1.739) 2.765 

Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

MEDIUM SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.4 
Table 2.5

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 5.72 (0.065) 0.151 8.32 (0.065) 0.151 14.85 0.416 (0.125) 0.291 8.28 (0.125) 0.291 

ExternalInternal 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 5.72 (0.065) 0.151 8.32 (0.065) 0.151 14.85 0.416 (0.125) 0.291 8.28 (0.125) 0.291 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 1.938 (1.486) 0.452 17.15 (1.486) 0.452 24.96 (1.486) 0.452 44.54 3.742 (2.869) 0.873 24.85 (2.869) 0.873 Anchor Impact 30.77 0.861 (0.689) 0.172 6.53 (0.689) 0.172 9.51 (0.689) 0.172 16.97 1.663 (1.330) 0.333 9.47 (1.330) 0.333 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 4.08 (0.108) 0.108 5.94 (0.108) 0.108 10.61 0.416 (0.208) 0.208 5.92 (0.208) 0.208 Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.861 (0.689) 0.172 6.53 (0.689) 0.172 9.51 (0.689) 0.172 16.97 1.663 (1.330) 0.333 9.47 (1.330) 0.333 OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 6.53 (0.043) 0.172 9.51 (0.043) 0.172 16.97 0.416 (0.083) 0.333 9.47 (0.083) 0.333 Rig AnchoringWork Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 6.53 (0.043) 0.172 9.51 (0.043) 0.172 16.97 0.416 (0.083) 0.333 9.47 (0.083) 0.333 MECHANICALConnection FailureMaterial FailureNATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.431 (0.263) 0.168 6.37 (0.237) 0.194 10.70 (0.194) 0.237 23.33 0.832 (0.507) 0.324 9.22 (0.457) 0.374 Mud Slide 7.69 0.215 (0.155) 0.060 2.28 (0.129) 0.086 4.75 (0.086) 0.129 12.73 0.416 (0.300) 0.116 3.31 (0.249) 0.166 Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 4.08 (0.108) 0.108 5.94 (0.108) 0.108 10.61 0.416 (0.208) 0.208 5.92 (0.208) 0.208 ARCTIC 1.693 1.693 64.23 0.843 0.843 46.52 0.003 0.003 0.30 1.693 1.693 48.18 0.843 0.843 Ice Gouging 1.3438 1.3438 50.98 0.6719 0.6719 37.08 1.3438 1.3438 38.24 0.6719 0.6719 Strudel Scour 0.0082 0.0082 0.31 0.0082 0.0082 0.23Upheaval Buckling 0.0016 0.0016 0.06 0.0016 0.0016 0.09 0.0016 0.0016 0.16 0.0016 0.0016 0.05 0.0016 0.0016 Thaw Settlement 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.0008 0.0008 0.05 0.0008 0.0008 0.08 0.0008 0.0008 0.02 0.0008 0.0008 Other 0.3386 0.3386 12.84 0.1686 0.1686 9.30 0.0006 0.0006 0.06 0.3386 0.3386 9.64 0.1686 0.1686 UNKNOWNTOTALS 100.00 2.799 (0.163) 2.636 100.00 (0.987) 1.812 100.00 (1.784) 1.015 100.00 5.405 (1.891) 3.514 100.00 (2.691) 2.714 

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

LARGE SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.5 
Table 2.6

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 5.31 (0.016) 0.038 7.88 (0.016) 0.038 14.84 0.139 (0.042) 0.097 8.97 (0.042) 0.097 

ExternalInternal 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 5.31 (0.016) 0.038 7.88 (0.016) 0.038 14.84 0.139 (0.042) 0.097 8.97 (0.042) 0.097 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 0.484 (0.371) 0.113 15.93 (0.371) 0.113 23.64 (0.371) 0.113 44.53 1.247 (0.956) 0.291 26.92 (0.956) 0.291 Anchor Impact 30.77 0.215 (0.172) 0.043 6.07 (0.172) 0.043 9.00 (0.172) 0.043 16.96 0.554 (0.443) 0.111 10.26 (0.443) 0.111 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 3.79 (0.027) 0.027 5.63 (0.027) 0.027 10.60 0.139 (0.069) 0.069 6.41 (0.069) 0.069 Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.215 (0.172) 0.043 6.07 (0.172) 0.043 9.00 (0.172) 0.043 16.96 0.554 (0.443) 0.111 10.26 (0.443) 0.111 OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 6.07 (0.011) 0.043 9.00 (0.011) 0.043 16.96 0.139 (0.028) 0.111 10.26 (0.028) 0.111 Rig AnchoringWork Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 6.07 (0.011) 0.043 9.00 (0.011) 0.043 16.96 0.139 (0.028) 0.111 10.26 (0.028) 0.111 MECHANICALConnection FailureMaterial FailureNATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.108 (0.066) 0.042 5.91 (0.059) 0.048 10.13 (0.048) 0.059 23.32 0.277 (0.169) 0.108 9.99 (0.152) 0.125 Mud Slide 7.69 0.054 (0.039) 0.015 2.12 (0.032) 0.022 4.50 (0.022) 0.032 12.72 0.139 (0.100) 0.039 3.58 (0.083) 0.055 Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 3.79 (0.027) 0.027 5.63 (0.027) 0.027 10.60 0.139 (0.069) 0.069 6.41 (0.069) 0.069 ARCTIC 0.474 0.474 66.78 0.236 0.236 49.35 0.001 0.001 0.34 0.474 0.474 43.85 0.236 0.236 Ice Gouging 0.3762 0.3762 53.01 0.1881 0.1881 39.33 0.3762 0.3762 34.80 0.1881 0.1881 Strudel Scour 0.0023 0.0023 0.32 0.0023 0.0023 0.21Upheaval Buckling 0.0005 0.0005 0.06 0.0005 0.0005 0.10 0.0005 0.0005 0.18 0.0005 0.0005 0.04 0.0005 0.0005 Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.03 0.0002 0.0002 0.05 0.0002 0.0002 0.09 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 Other 0.0948 0.0948 13.36 0.0472 0.0472 9.87 0.0002 0.0002 0.07 0.0948 0.0948 8.77 0.0472 0.0472 UNKNOWNTOTALS 100.00 0.700 0.010 0.710 100.00 (0.222) 0.478 100.00 (0.446) 0.254 100.00 1.802 (0.721) 1.081 100.00 (0.942) 0.860 

Shallow Medium Deep Medium 

P/L Dia >=10"

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

HUGE SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

Shallow

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.6 
Table 2.7

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 1.002 (0.541) 0.461 47.85 (0.541) 0.4615 44.20 (0.541) 0.4615 39.6

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.06 (0.025) 0.0585 5.60 (0.025) 0.0585 5.03

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.06 (0.025) 0.0585 5.60 (0.025) 0.0585 5.03

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 0.167 (0.084) 0.084 8.66 (0.084) 0.0835 8.00 (0.084) 0.0835 7.18

COLLISION 11.11 0.167 (0.134) 0.033 3.46 (0.134) 0.0334 3.20 (0.134) 0.0334 2.87

ARCTIC 0.269 0.269 27.90 0.349 0.3486 33.39 0.468 0.4680 40.2Ice Force 0.145 0.145 15.00 0.217 0.2170 20.79 0.326 0.3256 27.9Facility Low Temperature 0.100 0.100 10.37 0.100 0.1000 9.58 0.100 0.1000 8.60Other 0.024 0.024 2.53 0.032 0.0316 3.03 0.042 0.0424 3.65TOTALS 100.00 1.504 (0.539) 0.964 100.00 (0.460) 1.0440 100.00 (0.340) 1.1634 100.0

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

4

well-year

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.7 
Table 2.8

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 33.33 0.0835 (0.045) 0.0385 20.00 (0.045) 0.0385 18.64 (0.045) 0.0385 16.9

STORAGE TANK RLS. 66.67 0.1671 (0.050) 0.1169 60.82 (0.050) 0.1169 56.68 (0.050) 0.1169 51.4

STRUCTURAL FAILUREHURRICANE/STORMCOLLISIONARCTIC 0.037 0.0369 19.18 0.051 0.0509 24.68 0.072 0.0720 31.6Ice Force 0.026 0.0255 13.28 0.038 0.0383 18.56 0.057 0.0575 25.2Facility Low Temperature 0.008 0.0080 4.16 0.008 0.0080 3.88 0.008 0.0080 3.52Other 0.003 0.0033 1.74 0.005 0.0046 2.24 0.007 0.0065 2.87TOTALS 100.00 0.2506 (0.058) 0.1923 100.00 (0.044) 0.2063 100.00 (0.023) 0.2274 100.0

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

4

well-year

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.8 
Table 2.9

Artic Frequency - Wells

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTIONWELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.000 

EXPLORATIONWELL DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.160 3.160 3.160 3.160 22.110 22.110 22.110 22.110 9.500 9.500 9.500 9.500 5.500 

DEVELOPMENTWELL DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.300 1.300 1.300 1.300 9.080 9.080 9.080 9.080 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 

Small and Medium Spills

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium Deep Deep Deep

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

EVENT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium

Large Spill

FREQUENCY UNIT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl

Shallow Medium

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.9 
Table 2.10

Average Spill Distribution

Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Expected High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low 

P/L Dia <10" Spill 1 58 99 52 100 226 999 485 1000 4436 9999 5279 10000 P/L Dia > 10" Spill 1 58 99 52 100 387 999 516 1000 3932 9999 5176 10000 Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected

Platform Spill 1 158 999 431 1000 6130 10000 5631Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low 

Well Blowout Spill 1 500 999 500 1000 4500 9999 5292 10000 20000 150000 68349 150000 

PIPELINE SPILLS

Small Medium Large 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills >=10000 < 150000 bbl Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

PLATFORM SPILLSWELL BLOWOUT SPILLS

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.10 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 2.799 1.802 Historical Frequency

S 1.880 1.367 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.697 1.170 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.540 0.992 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.467 0.300 H 1.089 0.701 H 0.467 0.300 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.156 0.100 

S 0.295 0.190 S 0.218 0.140 S 0.373 0.240 S 0.311 0.200 S 0.087 0.056 S 0.156 0.100 

M 0.295 0.190 M 0.218 0.140 M 0.373 0.240 M 0.311 0.200 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.156 0.100 

D 0.295 0.190 D 0.218 0.140 D 0.373 0.240 D 0.311 0.200 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.156 0.100 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.156 0.100 H 0.933 0.601 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.000 

S 0.078 0.050 S 0.187 0.120 S 0.124 0.080 S 0.156 0.100 S 0.087 0.056 S 0.349 

M 0.078 0.050 M 0.187 0.120 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.156 0.100 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.175 

D 0.078 0.050 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.124 0.080 D 0.156 0.100 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.311 0.200 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 

S 0.218 0.140 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.249 0.160 S 0.156 0.100 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.002 

M 0.218 0.140 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.249 0.160 M 0.156 0.100 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 

D 0.218 0.140 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.249 0.160 D 0.156 0.100 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.156 0.100 

S 0.031 0.020 

M 0.031 0.020 

D 0.031 0.020 

Figure 2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spill

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Small Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.1 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 4.899 4.504 Historical Frequency

S 3.298 3.095 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 2.973 2.765 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 2.696 2.479 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.816 0.751 H 1.905 1.752 H 0.816 0.751 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.272 0.250 

S 0.517 0.475 S 0.381 0.350 S 0.653 0.601 S 0.544 0.500 S 0.152 0.140 S 0.272 0.250 

M 0.517 0.475 M 0.381 0.350 M 0.653 0.601 M 0.544 0.500 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.272 0.250 

D 0.517 0.475 D 0.381 0.350 D 0.653 0.601 D 0.544 0.500 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.272 0.250 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.272 0.250 H 1.633 1.501 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.000 

S 0.136 0.125 S 0.327 0.300 S 0.218 0.200 S 0.272 0.250 S 0.152 0.140 S 0.618 

M 0.136 0.125 M 0.327 0.300 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.272 0.250 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.309 

D 0.136 0.125 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.218 0.200 D 0.272 0.250 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.544 0.500 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 

S 0.381 0.350 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.435 0.400 S 0.272 0.250 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.004 

M 0.381 0.350 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.435 0.400 M 0.272 0.250 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 

D 0.381 0.350 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.435 0.400 D 0.272 0.250 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.272 0.250 

S 0.054 0.050 

M 0.054 0.050 

D 0.054 0.050 

Figure 2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spill

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Medium Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF2.2 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 2.799 5.405 Historical Frequency

S 2.636 3.514 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.812 2.714 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.015 1.957 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.215 0.416 H 1.938 3.742 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.431 0.832 H 0.000 0.000 

S 0.151 0.291 S 0.452 0.873 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.168 0.324 S 0.000 0.000 

M 0.151 0.291 M 0.452 0.873 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.194 0.374 M 0.000 0.000 

D 0.151 0.291 D 0.452 0.873 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.237 0.457 D 0.000 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.861 1.663 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.060 0.116 S 1.344 

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.086 0.166 M 0.672 

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.129 0.249 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.215 0.416 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 

S 0.151 0.291 S 0.108 0.208 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.108 0.208 S 0.008 

M 0.151 0.291 M 0.108 0.208 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.108 0.208 M 0.000 

D 0.151 0.291 D 0.108 0.208 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.108 0.208 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.861 1.663 

S 0.172 0.333 

M 0.172 0.333 

D 0.172 0.333 

Figure 2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spill

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Large Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.3 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 0.700 1.802 Historical Frequency

S 0.710 1.081 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.478 0.860 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.254 0.652 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.054 0.139 H 0.484 1.247 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.108 0.277 H 0.000 0.000 

S 0.038 0.097 S 0.113 0.291 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.042 0.108 S 0.000 0.000 

M 0.038 0.097 M 0.113 0.291 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.048 0.125 M 0.000 0.000 

D 0.038 0.097 D 0.113 0.291 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.059 0.152 D 0.000 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>10" Dia<10" Dia>10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.554 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.015 0.039 S 0.376 

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.022 0.055 M 0.188 

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.032 0.083 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.054 0.139 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 

S 0.038 0.097 S 0.027 0.069 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.027 0.069 S 0.002 

M 0.038 0.097 M 0.027 0.069 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.027 0.069 M 0.000 

D 0.038 0.097 D 0.027 0.069 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.027 0.069 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.215 0.554 

S 0.043 0.111 

M 0.043 0.111 

D 0.043 0.111 

Figure 2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spill

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Huge Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.4 
SM LH Spill Size

Note : All Values per 10000 well-year H 1.504 0.251 Historical Frequency

S 0.964 0.192 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.044 0.206 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.163 0.227 Deep Water Depth Frequency

SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH

H 1.002 0.084 H 0.084 0.167 H 0.084 0.000 H 0.167 0.000 H 0.167 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.461 0.038 S 0.058 0.117 S 0.058 0.000 S 0.084 0.000 S 0.033 0.000 S 0.269 0.037

M 0.461 0.038 M 0.058 0.117 M 0.058 0.000 M 0.084 0.000 M 0.033 0.000 M 0.349 0.051

D 0.461 0.038 D 0.058 0.117 D 0.058 0.000 D 0.084 0.000 D 0.033 0.000 D 0.468 0.072

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.145 0.

M 0.217 0.

D 0.326 0.

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.100 0.

M 0.100 0.

D 0.100 0.

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.024 0.

M 0.032 0.

D 0.042 0.

Figure 2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spill

ARCTIC

Platform Spill

Other

Ice Force

PROCESS FACILITY RLS.

Facility Low Temper

STORAGE TANK RLS. STRUCTURAL FAILURE HURRICANE/STORM COLLISION

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.5 
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2 1

Shallow 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 113333 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Shallow 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 39.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 39.8

Shallow 2 46 22 20 20 36.3

Medium 113333 1

Deep

Total 1 3 3 49 3 25 1 20 20 36.3

Shallow 2 46 22 10 30 10 30 33.4

Medium 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep

Total 3 10 59 4 29 1 20 40 20 40 44.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 27.6

Medium 1 10 23 4 11 1 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 40 40 47.5

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 22.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 42.6

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 18.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 38.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 15.5

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 16.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 31.9

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 12.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 13.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 26.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 10.5

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 11.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 21.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 8.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 9.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 17.9

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells

2012

2013

2014

2015

2008

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

2007

2004

2005

2006

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.1 10/31/2002
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 7.3

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 7.6

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 14.9

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 6.1

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 6.3

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 12.4

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 3.0

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 5.2

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 30 -10 30 8.2

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 2.6

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 30 30 6.9

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -10 10 -10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.5

Deep

Total -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 3.5

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.0

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 3.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 2.6

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 2.6

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -1 -23 -11 -10 -10

Deep

Total -1 -23 -11 -20 -20

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.1 10/31/2002
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep 1 1

Total 2 2 113333 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 15 15 15 15 10.9

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 1 10 13 4 7 1 15 15 15 15 10.9

Shallow 1 10 23 4 11 1 15 15 19.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 23 4 11 1 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Medium 113333 1

Deep

Total 1 2 3 26 3 14 1 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 10 25 10 25 16.4

Medium 1 2 13 16 7 10 2 5 5 10 10 15 15 18.4

Deep

Total 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 20 35 25 40 34.8

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 13.5

Medium 2 20 36 8 18 2 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 20 59 8 29 2 5 35 40 44.2

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 11.2

Medium 2 10 46 4 22 1 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 5 35 40 41.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 9.2

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 39.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 7.6

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 38.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 6.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 26.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 32.7

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.2 10/31/2002
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth Year ProductionMMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 5.2

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 22.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 27.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 4.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 19.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 23.8

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 3.5

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 16.8

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 20.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 2.9

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 14.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 17.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 2.4

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 12.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 14.8

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 10 -15 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 10.7

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 5 -15 20 -15 25 10.7

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 9.2

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 9.2

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 7.9

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 7.9

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 6.8

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 6.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 5.8

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 5.0

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 4.3

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 3.7

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 3.7

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -2 -46 -22 -5 -10 -15

Deep

Total -2 -46 -22 -5 -20 -25

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.2 10/31/2002
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 114444 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 114444 1

Shallow 15 15 15 15

Medium 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 15 15 20 20 30.8

Deep

Total 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 30 30 35 35 30.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 30 35 38.6

2019

2020

2021

2022

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" WaterDepth

2016

2017

2018

Exploration

Wells

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells Sum >=10"

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.3 10/31/2002
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 34.0

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 34.0

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 29.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 29.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 26.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 26.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 23.2

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 23.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 20.4

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 20.4

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 17.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 17.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 15.8

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 15.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 13.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 13.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 12.2

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 12.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 10.8

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 10.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 9.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 9.5

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 8.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.3 10/31/2002
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2 2

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 2 2 2

Shallow 2 1 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 2 2 113333 1

Shallow 1 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 1 2 2

Deep

Total 2 2 3 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Shallow 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium 2 2

Deep 1 1

Total 3 3 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 3 20 59 8 29 2 15 35 15 35 50.7

Medium 1 3 2

Deep 1 1

Total 2 3 3 3 20 59 8 29 2 15 35 15 35 50.7

Shallow 3 10 69 4 33 1 35 35 56.2

Medium 4 2 113333 1

Deep

Total 4 2 1 4 13 72 7 36 2 35 35 56.2

Shallow 3 69 33 10 45 10 45 53.3

Medium 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 4 10 82 4 40 1 20 55 20 55 64.2

Shallow 3 69 33 45 45 47.5

Medium 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 1 5 13 95 7 47 2 55 55 67.4

Shallow 3 69 33 10 55 10 55 39.1

Medium 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 10 20 15 25 38.3

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 6 13 108 7 54 2 5 5 20 75 25 80 77.4

Shallow 3 69 33 55 55 32.3

Medium 1 4 24 63 12 33 3 5 20 25 50.6

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 7 24 132 12 66 3 5 75 80 82.9

Shallow 3 69 33 15 70 15 70 26.7

Medium 1 5 24 87 12 45 3 5 10 15 35 20 45 77.9

Deep

Total 1 8 24 156 12 78 3 5 10 30 105 35 115 104.6

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 22.0

Medium 5 20 107 8 53 2 10 35 45 82.8

Deep

Total 8 20 176 8 86 2 10 105 115 104.8

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 18.1

Medium 5 20 127 9 62 2 10 35 45 80.5

Deep

Total 8 20 196 9 95 2 10 105 115 98.6

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 15.0

Medium 5 10 137 5 67 1 10 35 45 74.2

Deep

Total 8 10 206 5 100 1 10 105 115 89.2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2015

2016

2017

2018

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

Sum All

2008

2009

Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.4 10/31/2002
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Year Sum All Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 12.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 68.9

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 81.4

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 10.4

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 64.4

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 74.8

Shallow -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 60 -10 60 6.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 56.0

Deep

Total -1 7 -23 183 -11 89 10 -10 95 -10 105 62.5

Shallow 2 46 22 60 60 5.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 48.6

Deep

Total 7 183 89 10 95 105 54.1

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 50 -10 50 2.4

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 42.2

Deep

Total -1 6 -23 160 -11 78 10 -10 85 -10 95 44.6

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 35 -15 35

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 36.9

Deep

Total -1 5 -23 137 -11 67 10 -15 70 -15 80 36.9

Shallow 35 35

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 32.2

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 70 80 32.2

Shallow -10 25 -10 25

Medium -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -10 25 -10 35 25.8

Deep

Total -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -20 50 -20 60 25.8

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 22.6

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 22.6

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 19.7

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 19.7

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 17.2

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 17.2

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 15.1

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 15.1

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 13.2

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 13.2

Shallow -10 15 -10 15

Medium -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -10 15 -15 20 8.3

Deep

Total -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -20 30 -25 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.4 10/31/2002
Table T.3.5

Chukchi Sea Base Case 1998-2010

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 2

Total 2 2 0

Shallow 5555

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 135 135 135 135

Total 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 2 8 8 135 135

Total 2 2 8 8 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 4 40 48 135 135

Total 2 4 40 48 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 6 60 108 135 135

Total 2 6 60 108 200 200 101

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 80 188 135 135

Total 6 80 188 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 26 214 135 135

Total 6 26 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 119

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 103

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 92

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2002

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.5 10/31/2002
Table T.3.6

Chukchi Sea High Case 1998-2010

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 3 1

Total 3 1 0

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 1

Total 2 1 0

Shallow 5555

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 2 2 2 135 135 135 135

Total 2 2 2 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 8 50 50 135 135

Total 6 8 50 50 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 4 12 80 130 135 135

Total 4 12 80 130 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 270 135 135

Total 12 140 270 200 200 223

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 410 135 135

Total 12 140 410 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 72 482 135 135

Total 12 72 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 262

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 227

2007

2008

2009

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

Water

Depth

2002

Year

1998

1999

2000

2001

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10" Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

Bercha Group C3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Spills

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.220 0.01 0.498 0.19 0.565 2.22 0.174Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.220 0.01 0.498 0.19 0.565 2.22 0.174Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 20 1.367 0.440 0.03 3.095 0.996 0.39 3.514 1.131 4.45 1.081 0.348Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.440 0.03 0.996 0.39 1.131 4.45 0.348Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 20 1.367 0.440 0.03 3.095 0.996 0.39 3.514 1.131 4.45 1.081 0.348Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.440 0.03 0.996 0.39 1.131 4.45 0.348Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 20 1.367 0.440 0.03 3.095 0.996 0.39 3.514 1.131 4.45 1.081 0.348Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.440 0.03 0.996 0.39 1.131 4.45 0.348Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

200920102011201220132016

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills Large Spills Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

20082015

Average Spill [bbl] = Year

2004200520062007

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

2014

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Spills

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills Large Spills Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 30 1.367 0.660 0.04 3.095 1.494 0.58 3.514 1.696 6.67 1.081 0.522Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 40 0.848 0.05 1.939 0.75 2.133 8.39 0.660Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 20 1.367 0.440 0.03 3.095 0.996 0.39 3.514 1.131 4.45 1.081 0.348Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 30 0.628 0.04 1.441 0.56 1.567 6.16 0.486Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 20 1.367 0.440 0.03 3.095 0.996 0.39 3.514 1.131 4.45 1.081 0.348Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 30 0.628 0.04 1.441 0.56 1.567 6.16 0.486Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total

20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Spills

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

3.083.083.083.086.166.166.166.166.166.169.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Spills

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

9.242.45

11.69

6.162.458.616.162.458.613.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.53

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.1.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.220 0.020 0.013 0.498 0.046 0.193 0.718 0.066 0.205 0.565 0.052 2.223 0.174 0.016 3.079 1.457 0.134 5.5082011 19.9 0.220 0.011 0.013 0.498 0.025 0.193 0.718 0.036 0.205 0.565 0.028 2.223 0.174 0.009 3.079 1.457 0.073 5.5082012 30.8 0.440 0.014 0.026 0.996 0.032 0.385 1.436 0.047 0.411 1.131 0.037 4.446 0.348 0.011 6.159 2.915 0.095 11.0162013 39.8 0.440 0.011 0.026 0.996 0.025 0.385 1.436 0.036 0.411 1.131 0.028 4.446 0.348 0.009 6.159 2.915 0.073 11.0162014 36.3 0.440 0.012 0.026 0.996 0.027 0.385 1.436 0.040 0.411 1.131 0.031 4.446 0.348 0.010 6.159 2.915 0.080 11.0162015 44.3 0.848 0.019 0.049 1.939 0.044 0.750 2.787 0.063 0.800 2.133 0.048 8.386 0.660 0.015 11.687 5.580 0.126 20.8732016 47.5 0.848 0.018 0.049 1.939 0.041 0.750 2.787 0.059 0.800 2.133 0.045 8.386 0.660 0.014 11.687 5.580 0.117 20.8732017 42.6 0.848 0.020 0.049 1.939 0.046 0.750 2.787 0.065 0.800 2.133 0.050 8.386 0.660 0.015 11.687 5.580 0.131 20.8732018 38.7 0.848 0.022 0.049 1.939 0.050 0.750 2.787 0.072 0.800 2.133 0.055 8.386 0.660 0.017 11.687 5.580 0.144 20.8732019 31.9 0.848 0.027 0.049 1.939 0.061 0.750 2.787 0.087 0.800 2.133 0.067 8.386 0.660 0.021 11.687 5.580 0.175 20.8732020 26.3 0.848 0.032 0.049 1.939 0.074 0.750 2.787 0.106 0.800 2.133 0.081 8.386 0.660 0.025 11.687 5.580 0.212 20.8732021 21.7 0.848 0.039 0.049 1.939 0.089 0.750 2.787 0.128 0.800 2.133 0.098 8.386 0.660 0.030 11.687 5.580 0.257 20.8732022 17.9 0.848 0.047 0.049 1.939 0.108 0.750 2.787 0.156 0.800 2.133 0.119 8.386 0.660 0.037 11.687 5.580 0.312 20.8732023 14.9 0.848 0.057 0.049 1.939 0.130 0.750 2.787 0.187 0.800 2.133 0.143 8.386 0.660 0.044 11.687 5.580 0.374 20.8732024 12.4 0.848 0.068 0.049 1.939 0.156 0.750 2.787 0.225 0.800 2.133 0.172 8.386 0.660 0.053 11.687 5.580 0.450 20.8732025 8.2 0.628 0.077 0.036 1.441 0.176 0.558 2.069 0.252 0.594 1.567 0.191 6.163 0.486 0.059 8.608 4.123 0.503 15.3652026 6.9 0.628 0.091 0.036 1.441 0.209 0.558 2.069 0.300 0.594 1.567 0.227 6.163 0.486 0.070 8.608 4.123 0.597 15.3652027 3.5 0.408 0.117 0.024 0.943 0.269 0.365 1.351 0.386 0.389 1.002 0.286 3.940 0.312 0.089 5.528 2.665 0.762 9.8572028 3.0 0.408 0.136 0.024 0.943 0.314 0.365 1.351 0.450 0.389 1.002 0.334 3.940 0.312 0.104 5.528 2.665 0.888 9.8572029 2.6 0.408 0.157 0.024 0.943 0.363 0.365 1.351 0.520 0.389 1.002 0.385 3.940 0.312 0.120 5.528 2.665 1.025 9.857

Year

203020312032203320342035203620372038

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.964 0.289 0.05 0.192 0.058 0.35

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 3 0.289 0.05 0.058 0.35

Shallow 1 13 0.964 1.254 0.20 0.192 0.250 1.53

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 13 1.254 0.20 0.250 1.53

Shallow 2 26 0.964 2.508 0.40 0.192 0.500 3.06

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 26 2.508 0.40 0.500 3.06

Shallow 2 36 0.964 3.472 0.55 0.192 0.692 4.24

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 36 3.472 0.55 0.692 4.24

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.436 0.70 0.884 5.42

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 3 1.044 0.313 0.05 0.206 0.062 0.38

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 49 4.750 0.75 0.946 5.80

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 13 1.044 1.357 0.21 0.206 0.268 1.64

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 59 5.794 0.92 1.153 7.07

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 6.838 1.08 1.359 8.33

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.619 0.73 0.917 5.62

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.619 0.73 0.917 5.62

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 23 2.401 0.38 0.475 2.91

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 23 2.401 0.38 0.475 2.91

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1 23 1.044 2.401 0.38 0.206 0.475 2.91

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 23 2.401 0.38 0.475 2.91

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.289 0.046 0.058 0.354 0.347 0.399

2010 10.9 1.254 0.115 0.198 0.250 0.023 1.532 1.504 0.138 1.730

2011 19.9 2.508 0.126 0.396 0.500 0.025 3.065 3.007 0.151 3.461

2012 30.8 3.472 0.113 0.549 0.692 0.022 4.243 4.164 0.135 4.792

2013 39.8 4.436 0.111 0.701 0.884 0.022 5.422 5.321 0.134 6.123

2014 36.3 4.750 0.131 0.750 0.946 0.026 5.801 5.696 0.157 6.552

2015 44.3 5.794 0.131 0.915 1.153 0.026 7.066 6.946 0.157 7.982

2016 47.5 6.838 0.144 1.080 1.359 0.029 8.331 8.197 0.173 9.411

2017 42.6 6.838 0.161 1.080 1.359 0.032 8.331 8.197 0.192 9.411

2018 38.7 6.838 0.177 1.080 1.359 0.035 8.331 8.197 0.212 9.411

2019 31.9 6.838 0.214 1.080 1.359 0.043 8.331 8.197 0.257 9.411

2020 26.3 6.838 0.260 1.080 1.359 0.052 8.331 8.197 0.312 9.411

2021 21.7 6.838 0.315 1.080 1.359 0.063 8.331 8.197 0.378 9.411

2022 17.9 6.838 0.382 1.080 1.359 0.076 8.331 8.197 0.458 9.411

2023 14.9 6.838 0.459 1.080 1.359 0.091 8.331 8.197 0.550 9.411

2024 12.4 6.838 0.551 1.080 1.359 0.110 8.331 8.197 0.661 9.411

2025 8.2 4.619 0.563 0.730 0.917 0.112 5.620 5.536 0.675 6.350

2026 6.9 4.619 0.669 0.730 0.917 0.133 5.620 5.536 0.802 6.350

2027 3.5 2.401 0.686 0.379 0.475 0.136 2.909 2.876 0.822 3.288

2028 3.0 2.401 0.800 0.379 0.475 0.158 2.909 2.876 0.959 3.288

2029 2.6 2.401 0.924 0.379 0.475 0.183 2.909 2.876 1.106 3.288

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 36 0.500 0.180 0.09 3.500 1.260 5.67 1.500 0.540 10.80 1.000 0.360 72.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 36 0.180 0.09 1.260 5.67 0.540 10.80 0.360 72.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 49 0.245 0.12 1.715 7.72 0.735 14.70 0.490 98.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2017

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

2013 39.8 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

2014 36.3 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

2015 44.3 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2016 47.5 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

2017 42.6 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

2018 38.7 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

2019 31.9 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

2020 26.3 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

2021 21.7 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

2022 17.9 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

2023 14.9 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

2024 12.4 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

2025 8.2 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

2026 6.9 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

2027 3.5 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

2028 3.0 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

2029 2.6 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.7

Occurrence Spill Risks Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.7

Occurrence Spill Risks Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsAverage Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.7

Occurrence Spill Risks Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsAverage Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2016 47.5

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2017

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2016 47.5

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms 0.289 0.046 0.058 0.354 0.347 0.399

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.336 0.069 0.198 1.821 0.225 19.800 0.759 21.690

Pipeline 0.718 0.066 0.205 0.565 0.052 2.223 0.174 0.016 3.079 1.457 0.134 5.508

Platforms 1.254 0.115 0.198 0.250 0.023 1.532 1.504 0.138 1.730

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 2.063 0.189 0.449 1.088 0.100 6.620 0.655 0.060 50.139 3.806 0.349 57.209

Pipeline 0.718 0.036 0.205 0.565 0.028 2.223 0.174 0.009 3.079 1.457 0.073 5.508

Platforms 2.508 0.126 0.396 0.500 0.025 3.065 3.007 0.151 3.461

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.356 0.169 0.667 1.455 0.073 9.383 0.824 0.041 62.879 5.635 0.283 72.929

Pipeline 1.436 0.047 0.411 1.131 0.037 4.446 0.348 0.011 6.159 2.915 0.095 11.016

Platforms 3.472 0.113 0.549 0.692 0.022 4.243 4.164 0.135 4.792

Production Wells 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.088 0.165 1.050 2.363 0.077 14.359 1.248 0.041 88.959 8.699 0.282 104.368

Pipeline 1.436 0.036 0.411 1.131 0.028 4.446 0.348 0.009 6.159 2.915 0.073 11.016

Platforms 4.436 0.111 0.701 0.884 0.022 5.422 5.321 0.134 6.123

Production Wells 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.102 0.153 1.227 2.705 0.068 17.113 1.498 0.038 111.959 10.306 0.259 130.299

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.436 0.040 0.411 1.131 0.031 4.446 0.348 0.010 6.159 2.915 0.080 11.016

Platforms 4.750 0.131 0.750 0.946 0.026 5.801 5.696 0.157 6.552

Production Wells 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.431 0.177 1.284 2.812 0.077 17.965 1.573 0.043 118.859 10.816 0.298 138.108

Pipeline 2.787 0.063 0.800 2.133 0.048 8.386 0.660 0.015 11.687 5.580 0.126 20.873

Platforms 5.794 0.131 0.915 1.153 0.026 7.066 6.946 0.157 7.982

Production Wells 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.876 0.200 1.862 4.171 0.094 24.745 2.135 0.048 147.387 15.181 0.343 173.994

Pipeline 2.787 0.059 0.800 2.133 0.045 8.386 0.660 0.014 11.687 5.580 0.117 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.144 1.080 1.359 0.029 8.331 8.197 0.173 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.210 2.052 4.527 0.095 27.585 2.385 0.050 170.387 16.882 0.355 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.065 0.800 2.133 0.050 8.386 0.660 0.015 11.687 5.580 0.131 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.161 1.080 1.359 0.032 8.331 8.197 0.192 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.234 2.052 4.527 0.106 27.585 2.385 0.056 170.387 16.882 0.396 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.072 0.800 2.133 0.055 8.386 0.660 0.017 11.687 5.580 0.144 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.177 1.080 1.359 0.035 8.331 8.197 0.212 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.258 2.052 4.527 0.117 27.585 2.385 0.062 170.387 16.882 0.436 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.087 0.800 2.133 0.067 8.386 0.660 0.021 11.687 5.580 0.175 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.214 1.080 1.359 0.043 8.331 8.197 0.257 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.313 2.052 4.527 0.142 27.585 2.385 0.075 170.387 16.882 0.529 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.106 0.800 2.133 0.081 8.386 0.660 0.025 11.687 5.580 0.212 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.260 1.080 1.359 0.052 8.331 8.197 0.312 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.379 2.052 4.527 0.172 27.585 2.385 0.091 170.387 16.882 0.642 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.128 0.800 2.133 0.098 8.386 0.660 0.030 11.687 5.580 0.257 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.315 1.080 1.359 0.063 8.331 8.197 0.378 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.459 2.052 4.527 0.209 27.585 2.385 0.110 170.387 16.882 0.778 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.156 0.800 2.133 0.119 8.386 0.660 0.037 11.687 5.580 0.312 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.382 1.080 1.359 0.076 8.331 8.197 0.458 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.557 2.052 4.527 0.253 27.585 2.385 0.133 170.387 16.882 0.943 200.024

Pipeline 2.787 0.187 0.800 2.133 0.143 8.386 0.660 0.044 11.687 5.580 0.374 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.459 1.080 1.359 0.091 8.331 8.197 0.550 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.669 2.052 4.527 0.304 27.585 2.385 0.160 170.387 16.882 1.133 200.024

2016 47.5

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.787 0.225 0.800 2.133 0.172 8.386 0.660 0.053 11.687 5.580 0.450 20.873

Platforms 6.838 0.551 1.080 1.359 0.110 8.331 8.197 0.661 9.411

Production Wells 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.970 0.804 2.052 4.527 0.365 27.585 2.385 0.192 170.387 16.882 1.361 200.024

Pipeline 2.069 0.252 0.594 1.567 0.191 6.163 0.486 0.059 8.608 4.123 0.503 15.365

Platforms 4.619 0.563 0.730 0.917 0.112 5.620 5.536 0.675 6.350

Production Wells 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.919 0.844 1.439 3.174 0.387 19.028 1.636 0.200 114.408 11.729 1.430 134.875

Pipeline 2.069 0.300 0.594 1.567 0.227 6.163 0.486 0.070 8.608 4.123 0.597 15.365

Platforms 4.619 0.669 0.730 0.917 0.133 5.620 5.536 0.802 6.350

Production Wells 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.919 1.003 1.439 3.174 0.460 19.028 1.636 0.237 114.408 11.729 1.700 134.875

Pipeline 1.351 0.386 0.389 1.002 0.286 3.940 0.312 0.089 5.528 2.665 0.762 9.857

Platforms 2.401 0.686 0.379 0.475 0.136 2.909 2.876 0.822 3.288

Production Wells 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.867 1.105 0.825 1.822 0.520 10.472 0.887 0.253 58.428 6.576 1.879 69.725

Pipeline 1.351 0.450 0.389 1.002 0.334 3.940 0.312 0.104 5.528 2.665 0.888 9.857

Platforms 2.401 0.800 0.379 0.475 0.158 2.909 2.876 0.959 3.288

Production Wells 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.867 1.289 0.825 1.822 0.607 10.472 0.887 0.296 58.428 6.576 2.192 69.725

Pipeline 1.351 0.520 0.389 1.002 0.385 3.940 0.312 0.120 5.528 2.665 1.025 9.857

Platforms 2.401 0.924 0.379 0.475 0.183 2.909 2.876 1.106 3.288

Production Wells 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.867 1.487 0.825 1.822 0.701 10.472 0.887 0.341 58.428 6.576 2.529 69.725

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2008 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2009 0.34 0.069 0.20 1.821 0.225 19.80 0.759 21.690

2010 10.9 2.06 0.189 0.449 1.09 0.100 6.620 0.655 0.060 50.14 3.806 0.349 57.209

2011 19.9 3.36 0.169 0.667 1.46 0.073 9.383 0.824 0.041 62.88 5.635 0.283 72.929

2012 30.8 5.09 0.165 1.050 2.36 0.077 14.359 1.248 0.041 88.96 8.699 0.282 104.368

2013 39.8 6.10 0.153 1.227 2.71 0.068 17.113 1.498 0.038 111.96 10.306 0.259 130.299

2014 36.3 6.43 0.177 1.284 2.81 0.077 17.965 1.573 0.043 118.86 10.816 0.298 138.108

2015 44.3 8.88 0.200 1.862 4.17 0.094 24.745 2.135 0.048 147.39 15.181 0.343 173.994

2016 47.5 9.97 0.210 2.052 4.53 0.095 27.585 2.385 0.050 170.39 16.882 0.355 200.024

2017 42.6 9.97 0.234 2.052 4.53 0.106 27.585 2.385 0.056 170.39 16.882 0.396 200.024

2018 38.7 9.97 0.258 2.052 4.53 0.117 27.585 2.385 0.062 170.39 16.882 0.436 200.024

2019 31.9 9.97 0.313 2.052 4.53 0.142 27.585 2.385 0.075 170.39 16.882 0.529 200.024

2020 26.3 9.97 0.379 2.052 4.53 0.172 27.585 2.385 0.091 170.39 16.882 0.642 200.024

2021 21.7 9.97 0.459 2.052 4.53 0.209 27.585 2.385 0.110 170.39 16.882 0.778 200.024

2022 17.9 9.97 0.557 2.052 4.53 0.253 27.585 2.385 0.133 170.39 16.882 0.943 200.024

2023 14.9 9.97 0.669 2.052 4.53 0.304 27.585 2.385 0.160 170.39 16.882 1.133 200.024

2024 12.4 9.97 0.804 2.052 4.53 0.365 27.585 2.385 0.192 170.39 16.882 1.361 200.024

2025 8.2 6.92 0.844 1.439 3.17 0.387 19.028 1.636 0.200 114.41 11.729 1.430 134.875

2026 6.9 6.92 1.003 1.439 3.17 0.460 19.028 1.636 0.237 114.41 11.729 1.700 134.875

2027 3.5 3.87 1.105 0.825 1.82 0.520 10.472 0.887 0.253 58.43 6.576 1.879 69.725

2028 3.0 3.87 1.289 0.825 1.82 0.607 10.472 0.887 0.296 58.43 6.576 2.192 69.725

2029 2.6 3.87 1.487 0.825 1.82 0.701 10.472 0.887 0.341 58.43 6.576 2.529 69.725

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.12 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2009 0.047 0.023 0.140 1.467 0.225 19.800 0.412 21.291

2010 10.9 0.091 0.008 0.046 0.273 0.025 2.865 0.481 0.044 47.060 0.845 0.078 49.970

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

2013 39.8 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

2014 36.3 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

2015 44.3 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2016 47.5 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

2017 42.6 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

2018 38.7 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

2019 31.9 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

2020 26.3 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

2021 21.7 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

2022 17.9 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

2023 14.9 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

2024 12.4 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

2025 8.2 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

2026 6.9 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

2027 3.5 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

2028 3.0 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

2029 2.6 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.1.14

Beufort Sea Sale 1 Year 2016 - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 1

Year

2016

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Mean = 9.67 0.20 2.02 4.53 0.10 27.58 2.39 0.05 170.39

Std Deviation = 1.03 0.02 0.18 0.54 0.01 2.20 0.15 0.00 2.61

Variance = 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.29 0.00 4.84 0.02 0.00 6.83

Skewness = -0.04 -0.04 0.01 0.41 0.41 0.37 0.41 0.41 0.41

Kurtosis = 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.66 2.66 2.70 2.57 2.57 2.57

Mode = 8.63 0.18 1.83 3.97 0.09 29.13 2.33 0.05 167.05

Minimum = 6.02 0.127 1.35 3.20 0.067 21.72 2.00 0.042 163.64

5% Perc = 7.96 0.168 1.71 3.75 0.079 24.31 2.17 0.046 166.63

10% Perc = 8.34 0.176 1.78 3.88 0.082 24.90 2.21 0.046 167.23

15% Perc = 8.59 0.181 1.83 3.97 0.083 25.31 2.23 0.047 167.68

20% Perc = 8.79 0.185 1.86 4.05 0.085 25.62 2.25 0.047 168.05

25% Perc = 8.97 0.189 1.89 4.12 0.087 25.94 2.27 0.048 168.38

30% Perc = 9.13 0.192 1.92 4.19 0.088 26.22 2.29 0.048 168.72

35% Perc = 9.27 0.195 1.95 4.27 0.090 26.56 2.31 0.049 169.04

40% Perc = 9.42 0.198 1.97 4.33 0.091 26.83 2.33 0.049 169.38

45% Perc = 9.55 0.201 2.00 4.40 0.093 27.10 2.35 0.049 169.72

50% Perc = 9.67 0.204 2.02 4.46 0.094 27.38 2.37 0.050 170.05

55% Perc = 9.80 0.206 2.04 4.54 0.095 27.64 2.39 0.050 170.42

60% Perc = 9.95 0.209 2.07 4.61 0.097 27.94 2.41 0.051 170.81

65% Perc = 10.08 0.212 2.09 4.69 0.099 28.28 2.43 0.051 171.26

70% Perc = 10.22 0.215 2.11 4.79 0.101 28.65 2.46 0.052 171.73

75% Perc = 10.37 0.218 2.14 4.89 0.103 29.09 2.49 0.052 172.22

80% Perc = 10.54 0.222 2.17 5.00 0.105 29.49 2.52 0.053 172.78

85% Perc = 10.73 0.226 2.21 5.12 0.108 30.00 2.55 0.054 173.30

90% Perc = 11.01 0.232 2.26 5.28 0.111 30.67 2.60 0.055 174.12

95% Perc = 11.36 0.239 2.33 5.52 0.116 31.58 2.65 0.056 175.06

Maximum = 13.01 0.274 2.65 6.33 0.133 35.39 2.85 0.060 178.64

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.14 10/31/2002
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.4 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.5 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.6 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.7 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.8 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.9 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.10 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.11 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.12 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Figure 4.1.13

 Spill Frequency CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Produced CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Sale 1 Year 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 15 0.330 0.02 0.747 0.29 0.848 3.33 0.261Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 15 0.330 0.02 0.747 0.29 0.848 3.33 0.261Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 15 0.330 0.02 0.747 0.29 0.848 3.33 0.261Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 15 0.330 0.02 0.747 0.29 0.848 3.33 0.261Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

200920102011201220132016

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004200520062007200820142015

Average Spill [bbl] = Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 35 0.738 0.04 1.690 0.65 1.850 7.27 0.573Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 20 0.408 0.02 0.943 0.36 1.002 3.94 0.312Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total

20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.624.624.624.624.624.624.624.627.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

7.702.45

10.15

3.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.533.082.455.53

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.2.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013 10.9 0.330 0.030 0.019 0.747 0.069 0.289 1.077 0.099 0.308 0.848 0.078 3.335 0.261 0.024 4.619 2.186 0.201 8.2622014 19.9 0.330 0.017 0.019 0.747 0.038 0.289 1.077 0.054 0.308 0.848 0.043 3.335 0.261 0.013 4.619 2.186 0.110 8.2622015 19.9 0.330 0.017 0.019 0.747 0.038 0.289 1.077 0.054 0.308 0.848 0.043 3.335 0.261 0.013 4.619 2.186 0.110 8.2622016 19.9 0.330 0.017 0.019 0.747 0.038 0.289 1.077 0.054 0.308 0.848 0.043 3.335 0.261 0.013 4.619 2.186 0.110 8.2622017 34.8 0.875 0.025 0.051 1.929 0.055 0.718 2.804 0.081 0.768 1.996 0.057 7.921 0.612 0.018 10.702 5.411 0.155 19.3922018 44.2 0.875 0.020 0.051 1.929 0.044 0.718 2.804 0.063 0.768 1.996 0.045 7.921 0.612 0.014 10.702 5.411 0.122 19.3922019 41.9 0.875 0.021 0.051 1.929 0.046 0.718 2.804 0.067 0.768 1.996 0.048 7.921 0.612 0.015 10.702 5.411 0.129 19.3922020 39.9 0.875 0.022 0.051 1.929 0.048 0.718 2.804 0.070 0.768 1.996 0.050 7.921 0.612 0.015 10.702 5.411 0.136 19.3922021 38.3 0.875 0.023 0.051 1.929 0.050 0.718 2.804 0.073 0.768 1.996 0.052 7.921 0.612 0.016 10.702 5.411 0.141 19.3922022 32.7 0.875 0.027 0.051 1.929 0.059 0.718 2.804 0.086 0.768 1.996 0.061 7.921 0.612 0.019 10.702 5.411 0.165 19.3922023 27.9 0.875 0.031 0.051 1.929 0.069 0.718 2.804 0.100 0.768 1.996 0.072 7.921 0.612 0.022 10.702 5.411 0.194 19.3922024 23.8 0.875 0.037 0.051 1.929 0.081 0.718 2.804 0.118 0.768 1.996 0.084 7.921 0.612 0.026 10.702 5.411 0.227 19.3922025 20.3 0.875 0.043 0.051 1.929 0.095 0.718 2.804 0.138 0.768 1.996 0.098 7.921 0.612 0.030 10.702 5.411 0.267 19.3922026 17.3 0.875 0.051 0.051 1.929 0.112 0.718 2.804 0.162 0.768 1.996 0.115 7.921 0.612 0.035 10.702 5.411 0.313 19.3922027 14.8 0.875 0.059 0.051 1.929 0.130 0.718 2.804 0.189 0.768 1.996 0.135 7.921 0.612 0.041 10.702 5.411 0.366 19.3922028 10.7 0.545 0.051 0.032 1.182 0.110 0.429 1.727 0.161 0.460 1.148 0.107 4.587 0.351 0.033 6.083 3.225 0.301 11.1302029 9.2 0.545 0.059 0.032 1.182 0.128 0.429 1.727 0.188 0.460 1.148 0.125 4.587 0.351 0.038 6.083 3.225 0.351 11.1302030 7.9 0.545 0.069 0.032 1.182 0.150 0.429 1.727 0.219 0.460 1.148 0.145 4.587 0.351 0.044 6.083 3.225 0.408 11.1302031 6.8 0.545 0.080 0.024 1.182 0.174 0.365 1.727 0.254 0.389 1.148 0.169 3.940 0.351 0.052 5.528 3.225 0.474 9.8572032 5.8 0.545 0.094 0.032 1.182 0.204 0.429 1.727 0.298 0.460 1.148 0.198 4.587 0.351 0.060 6.083 3.225 0.556 11.1302033 5.0 0.545 0.109 0.032 1.182 0.236 0.429 1.727 0.345 0.460 1.148 0.230 4.587 0.351 0.070 6.083 3.225 0.645 11.1302034 4.3 0.545 0.127 0.032 1.182 0.275 0.429 1.727 0.402 0.460 1.148 0.267 4.587 0.351 0.082 6.083 3.225 0.750 11.1302035 3.7 0.545 0.147 0.032 1.182 0.319 0.429 1.727 0.467 0.460 1.148 0.310 4.587 0.351 0.095 6.083 3.225 0.872 11.130

Year

203620372038

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.964 0.289 0.05 0.192 0.058 0.35

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 3 0.289 0.05 0.058 0.35

Shallow 1 13 0.964 1.254 0.20 0.192 0.250 1.53

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 13 1.254 0.20 0.250 1.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 23 2.218 0.35 0.442 2.71

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 23 2.218 0.35 0.442 2.71

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 1 3 1.044 0.313 0.05 0.206 0.062 0.38

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 26 2.531 0.40 0.504 3.09

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 16 1.044 1.670 0.26 0.206 0.330 2.02

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 39 3.889 0.61 0.772 4.73

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 36 1.044 3.758 0.59 0.206 0.743 4.55

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 59 5.977 0.94 1.185 7.26

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 69 7.021 1.11 1.391 8.53

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 46 1.044 4.802 0.76 0.206 0.949 5.82

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 46 4.802 0.76 0.949 5.82

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.289 0.046 0.058 0.354 0.347 0.399

2013 10.9 1.254 0.115 0.198 0.250 0.023 1.532 1.504 0.138 1.730

2014 19.9 2.218 0.111 0.350 0.442 0.022 2.711 2.660 0.134 3.061

2015 19.9 2.218 0.111 0.350 0.442 0.022 2.711 2.660 0.134 3.061

2016 19.9 2.531 0.127 0.400 0.504 0.025 3.090 3.036 0.153 3.490

2017 34.8 3.889 0.112 0.614 0.772 0.022 4.735 4.661 0.134 5.349

2018 44.2 5.977 0.135 0.944 1.185 0.027 7.264 7.162 0.162 8.208

2019 41.9 7.021 0.168 1.109 1.391 0.033 8.529 8.412 0.201 9.638

2020 39.9 7.021 0.176 1.109 1.391 0.035 8.529 8.412 0.211 9.638

2021 38.3 7.021 0.183 1.109 1.391 0.036 8.529 8.412 0.220 9.638

2022 32.7 7.021 0.215 1.109 1.391 0.043 8.529 8.412 0.257 9.638

2023 27.9 7.021 0.252 1.109 1.391 0.050 8.529 8.412 0.302 9.638

2024 23.8 7.021 0.295 1.109 1.391 0.058 8.529 8.412 0.353 9.638

2025 20.3 7.021 0.346 1.109 1.391 0.069 8.529 8.412 0.414 9.638

2026 17.3 7.021 0.406 1.109 1.391 0.080 8.529 8.412 0.486 9.638

2027 14.8 7.021 0.474 1.109 1.391 0.094 8.529 8.412 0.568 9.638

2028 10.7 4.802 0.449 0.759 0.949 0.089 5.818 5.752 0.538 6.577

2029 9.2 4.802 0.522 0.759 0.949 0.103 5.818 5.752 0.625 6.577

2030 7.9 4.802 0.608 0.759 0.949 0.120 5.818 5.752 0.728 6.577

2031 6.8 4.802 0.706 0.759 0.949 0.140 5.818 5.752 0.846 6.577

2032 5.8 4.802 0.828 0.759 0.949 0.164 5.818 5.752 0.992 6.577

2033 5.0 4.802 0.960 0.759 0.949 0.190 5.818 5.752 1.150 6.577

2034 4.3 4.802 1.117 0.759 0.949 0.221 5.818 5.752 1.338 6.577

2035 3.7 4.802 1.298 0.759 0.949 0.257 5.818 5.752 1.554 6.577

2036

2037

2038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 16 0.500 0.080 0.04 3.500 0.560 2.52 1.500 0.240 4.80 1.000 0.160 32.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 36 0.500 0.180 0.09 3.500 1.260 5.67 1.500 0.540 10.80 1.000 0.360 72.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2013 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2014 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2015 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2016 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2017 34.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

2018 44.2 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2019 41.9 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

2020 39.9 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

2021 38.3 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

2022 32.7 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

2023 27.9 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

2024 23.8 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

2025 20.3 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

2026 17.3 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

2027 14.8 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

2028 10.7 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

2029 9.2 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

2030 7.9 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

2031 6.8 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

2032 5.8 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

2033 5.0 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

2034 4.3 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

2035 3.7 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2013 10.9 0.032 0.003 0.016 0.095 0.009 0.995 0.150 0.014 12.900 0.277 0.025 13.911

2014 19.9

2015 19.9

2016 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 6.8

2032 5.8

2033 5.0

2034 4.3

2035 3.7

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010

2011

2012

2013 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2014 19.9 0.026 0.001 0.013 0.078 0.004 0.817 0.156 0.008 17.160 0.260 0.013 17.990

2015 19.9

2016 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 6.8

2032 5.8

2033 5.0

2034 4.3

2035 3.7

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms 0.289 0.046 0.058 0.354 0.347 0.399

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.368 0.085 0.293 2.816 0.375 32.700 1.035 35.601

Pipeline 1.077 0.099 0.308 0.848 0.078 3.335 0.261 0.024 4.619 2.186 0.201 8.262

Platforms 1.254 0.115 0.198 0.250 0.023 1.532 1.504 0.138 1.730

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.003 0.016 0.095 0.009 0.995 0.150 0.014 12.900 0.277 0.025 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 2.453 0.225 0.568 1.466 0.135 8.727 0.892 0.082 64.579 4.811 0.441 73.873

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013 10.9

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.077 0.054 0.308 0.848 0.043 3.335 0.261 0.013 4.619 2.186 0.110 8.262

Platforms 2.218 0.111 0.350 0.442 0.022 2.711 2.660 0.134 3.061

Production Wells 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.001 0.013 0.078 0.004 0.817 0.156 0.008 17.160 0.260 0.013 17.990

Total 3.436 0.173 0.729 1.713 0.086 10.485 0.992 0.050 74.679 6.141 0.309 85.894

Pipeline 1.077 0.054 0.308 0.848 0.043 3.335 0.261 0.013 4.619 2.186 0.110 8.262

Platforms 2.218 0.111 0.350 0.442 0.022 2.711 2.660 0.134 3.061

Production Wells 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.410 0.171 0.716 1.635 0.082 9.668 0.836 0.042 57.519 5.881 0.296 67.903

Pipeline 1.077 0.054 0.308 0.848 0.043 3.335 0.261 0.013 4.619 2.186 0.110 8.262

Platforms 2.531 0.127 0.400 0.504 0.025 3.090 3.036 0.153 3.490

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.738 0.188 0.773 1.742 0.088 10.520 0.911 0.046 64.419 6.392 0.321 75.712

Pipeline 2.804 0.081 0.768 1.996 0.057 7.921 0.612 0.018 10.702 5.411 0.155 19.392

Platforms 3.889 0.112 0.614 0.772 0.022 4.735 4.661 0.134 5.349

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.887 0.198 1.480 3.353 0.096 18.798 1.587 0.046 100.402 11.827 0.340 120.681

Pipeline 2.804 0.063 0.768 1.996 0.045 7.921 0.612 0.014 10.702 5.411 0.122 19.392

Platforms 5.977 0.135 0.944 1.185 0.027 7.264 7.162 0.162 8.208

Production Wells 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.075 0.205 1.860 4.066 0.092 24.478 2.087 0.047 146.402 15.228 0.345 172.740

Pipeline 2.804 0.067 0.768 1.996 0.048 7.921 0.612 0.015 10.702 5.411 0.129 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.168 1.109 1.391 0.033 8.529 8.412 0.201 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.243 2.050 4.422 0.106 27.318 2.337 0.056 169.402 16.928 0.404 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.070 0.768 1.996 0.050 7.921 0.612 0.015 10.702 5.411 0.136 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.176 1.109 1.391 0.035 8.529 8.412 0.211 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.255 2.050 4.422 0.111 27.318 2.337 0.059 169.402 16.928 0.424 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.073 0.768 1.996 0.052 7.921 0.612 0.016 10.702 5.411 0.141 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.183 1.109 1.391 0.036 8.529 8.412 0.220 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.266 2.050 4.422 0.115 27.318 2.337 0.061 169.402 16.928 0.442 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.086 0.768 1.996 0.061 7.921 0.612 0.019 10.702 5.411 0.165 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.215 1.109 1.391 0.043 8.529 8.412 0.257 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.311 2.050 4.422 0.135 27.318 2.337 0.071 169.402 16.928 0.518 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.100 0.768 1.996 0.072 7.921 0.612 0.022 10.702 5.411 0.194 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.252 1.109 1.391 0.050 8.529 8.412 0.302 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.364 2.050 4.422 0.159 27.318 2.337 0.084 169.402 16.928 0.607 198.770

2016 19.9

2014 19.9

2015 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.804 0.118 0.768 1.996 0.084 7.921 0.612 0.026 10.702 5.411 0.227 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.295 1.109 1.391 0.058 8.529 8.412 0.353 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.427 2.050 4.422 0.186 27.318 2.337 0.098 169.402 16.928 0.711 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.138 0.768 1.996 0.098 7.921 0.612 0.030 10.702 5.411 0.267 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.346 1.109 1.391 0.069 8.529 8.412 0.414 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.501 2.050 4.422 0.218 27.318 2.337 0.115 169.402 16.928 0.834 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.162 0.768 1.996 0.115 7.921 0.612 0.035 10.702 5.411 0.313 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.406 1.109 1.391 0.080 8.529 8.412 0.486 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.588 2.050 4.422 0.256 27.318 2.337 0.135 169.402 16.928 0.979 198.770

Pipeline 2.804 0.189 0.768 1.996 0.135 7.921 0.612 0.041 10.702 5.411 0.366 19.392

Platforms 7.021 0.474 1.109 1.391 0.094 8.529 8.412 0.568 9.638

Production Wells 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.169 0.687 2.050 4.422 0.299 27.318 2.337 0.158 169.402 16.928 1.144 198.770

Pipeline 1.727 0.161 0.460 1.148 0.107 4.587 0.351 0.033 6.083 3.225 0.301 11.130

Platforms 4.802 0.449 0.759 0.949 0.089 5.818 5.752 0.538 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 0.632 1.334 2.787 0.260 17.650 1.501 0.140 111.883 11.047 1.032 130.867

Pipeline 1.727 0.188 0.460 1.148 0.125 4.587 0.351 0.038 6.083 3.225 0.351 11.130

Platforms 4.802 0.522 0.759 0.949 0.103 5.818 5.752 0.625 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 0.735 1.334 2.787 0.303 17.650 1.501 0.163 111.883 11.047 1.201 130.867

Pipeline 1.727 0.219 0.460 1.148 0.145 4.587 0.351 0.044 6.083 3.225 0.408 11.130

Platforms 4.802 0.608 0.759 0.949 0.120 5.818 5.752 0.728 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 0.856 1.334 2.787 0.353 17.650 1.501 0.190 111.883 11.047 1.398 130.867

Pipeline 1.727 0.254 0.389 1.148 0.169 3.940 0.351 0.052 5.528 3.225 0.474 9.857

Platforms 4.802 0.706 0.759 0.949 0.140 5.818 5.752 0.846 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 0.994 1.262 2.787 0.410 17.003 1.501 0.221 111.328 11.047 1.625 129.594

Pipeline 1.727 0.298 0.460 1.148 0.198 4.587 0.351 0.060 6.083 3.225 0.556 11.130

Platforms 4.802 0.828 0.759 0.949 0.164 5.818 5.752 0.992 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 1.165 1.334 2.787 0.481 17.650 1.501 0.259 111.883 11.047 1.905 130.867

Pipeline 1.727 0.345 0.460 1.148 0.230 4.587 0.351 0.070 6.083 3.225 0.645 11.130

Platforms 4.802 0.960 0.759 0.949 0.190 5.818 5.752 1.150 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 1.352 1.334 2.787 0.557 17.650 1.501 0.300 111.883 11.047 2.209 130.867

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 5.8

2032 5.0

2033 3.7

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.727 0.402 0.460 1.148 0.267 4.587 0.351 0.082 6.083 3.225 0.750 11.130

Platforms 4.802 1.117 0.759 0.949 0.221 5.818 5.752 1.338 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 1.572 1.334 2.787 0.648 17.650 1.501 0.349 111.883 11.047 2.569 130.867

Pipeline 1.727 0.467 0.460 1.148 0.310 4.587 0.351 0.095 6.083 3.225 0.872 11.130

Platforms 4.802 1.298 0.759 0.949 0.257 5.818 5.752 1.554 6.577

Production Wells 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.759 1.827 1.334 2.787 0.753 17.650 1.501 0.406 111.883 11.047 2.986 130.867

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2008 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2009 0.03 0.013 0.08 0.817 0.156 17.16 0.260 17.990

2010 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.37 0.085 0.29 2.816 0.375 32.70 1.035 35.601

2013 10.9 2.45 0.225 0.568 1.47 0.135 8.727 0.892 0.082 64.58 4.811 0.441 73.873

2014 19.9 3.44 0.173 0.729 1.71 0.086 10.485 0.992 0.050 74.68 6.141 0.309 85.894

2015 19.9 3.41 0.171 0.716 1.64 0.082 9.668 0.836 0.042 57.52 5.881 0.296 67.903

2016 19.9 3.74 0.188 0.773 1.74 0.088 10.520 0.911 0.046 64.42 6.392 0.321 75.712

2017 34.8 6.89 0.198 1.480 3.35 0.096 18.798 1.587 0.046 100.40 11.827 0.340 120.681

2018 44.2 9.08 0.205 1.860 4.07 0.092 24.478 2.087 0.047 146.40 15.228 0.345 172.740

2019 41.9 10.17 0.243 2.050 4.42 0.106 27.318 2.337 0.056 169.40 16.928 0.404 198.770

2020 39.9 10.17 0.255 2.050 4.42 0.111 27.318 2.337 0.059 169.40 16.928 0.424 198.770

2021 38.3 10.17 0.266 2.050 4.42 0.115 27.318 2.337 0.061 169.40 16.928 0.442 198.770

2022 32.7 10.17 0.311 2.050 4.42 0.135 27.318 2.337 0.071 169.40 16.928 0.518 198.770

2023 27.9 10.17 0.364 2.050 4.42 0.159 27.318 2.337 0.084 169.40 16.928 0.607 198.770

2024 23.8 10.17 0.427 2.050 4.42 0.186 27.318 2.337 0.098 169.40 16.928 0.711 198.770

2025 20.3 10.17 0.501 2.050 4.42 0.218 27.318 2.337 0.115 169.40 16.928 0.834 198.770

2026 17.3 10.17 0.588 2.050 4.42 0.256 27.318 2.337 0.135 169.40 16.928 0.979 198.770

2027 14.8 10.17 0.687 2.050 4.42 0.299 27.318 2.337 0.158 169.40 16.928 1.144 198.770

2028 10.7 6.76 0.632 1.334 2.79 0.260 17.650 1.501 0.140 111.88 11.047 1.032 130.867

2029 9.2 6.76 0.735 1.334 2.79 0.303 17.650 1.501 0.163 111.88 11.047 1.201 130.867

2030 7.9 6.76 0.856 1.334 2.79 0.353 17.650 1.501 0.190 111.88 11.047 1.398 130.867

2031 6.8 6.76 0.994 1.262 2.79 0.410 17.003 1.501 0.221 111.33 11.047 1.625 129.594

2032 5.8 6.76 1.165 1.334 2.79 0.481 17.650 1.501 0.259 111.88 11.047 1.905 130.867

2033 5.0 6.76 1.352 1.334 2.79 0.557 17.650 1.501 0.300 111.88 11.047 2.209 130.867

2034 4.3 6.76 1.572 1.334 2.79 0.648 17.650 1.501 0.349 111.88 11.047 2.569 130.867

2035 3.7 6.76 1.827 1.334 2.79 0.753 17.650 1.501 0.406 111.88 11.047 2.986 130.867

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.12 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.078 0.039 0.235 2.462 0.375 32.700 0.688 35.202

2013 10.9 0.123 0.011 0.061 0.368 0.034 3.860 0.631 0.058 59.960 1.122 0.103 63.881

2014 19.9 0.141 0.007 0.071 0.423 0.021 4.440 0.731 0.037 70.060 1.295 0.065 74.570

2015 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2016 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2017 34.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

2018 44.2 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2019 41.9 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

2020 39.9 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

2021 38.3 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

2022 32.7 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

2023 27.9 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

2024 23.8 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

2025 20.3 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

2026 17.3 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

2027 14.8 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

2028 10.7 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

2029 9.2 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

2030 7.9 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

2031 6.8 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

2032 5.8 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

2033 5.0 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

2034 4.3 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

2035 3.7 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.2.14

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Year 2019 - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 2

Year

2019

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Mean = 9.90 0.236 2.02 4.42 0.106 27.32 2.34 0.056 169.40

Std Deviation = 1.14 0.027 0.19 0.47 0.011 2.01 0.13 0.003 2.23

Variance = 1.29 0.001 0.04 0.22 0.000 4.03 0.02 0.000 4.99

Skewness = 0.12 0.116 0.09 0.33 0.327 0.28 0.39 0.386 0.39

Kurtosis = 2.85 2.854 2.86 2.64 2.645 2.72 2.69 2.688 2.68

Mode = 9.10 0.220 1.92 4.12 0.095 25.30 2.17 0.056 166.10

Minimum = 6.44 0.154 1.38 3.23 0.077 21.85 2.01 0.048 163.60

5% Perc = 8.06 0.192 1.70 3.71 0.089 24.22 2.15 0.051 166.12

10% Perc = 8.46 0.202 1.77 3.84 0.092 24.81 2.18 0.052 166.64

15% Perc = 8.72 0.208 1.82 3.92 0.094 25.17 2.20 0.053 167.04

20% Perc = 8.93 0.213 1.86 4.00 0.095 25.52 2.22 0.053 167.41

25% Perc = 9.12 0.218 1.89 4.07 0.097 25.86 2.24 0.053 167.70

30% Perc = 9.29 0.222 1.91 4.13 0.098 26.13 2.26 0.054 168.01

35% Perc = 9.43 0.225 1.94 4.19 0.100 26.39 2.28 0.054 168.32

40% Perc = 9.57 0.228 1.96 4.26 0.102 26.68 2.29 0.055 168.61

45% Perc = 9.72 0.232 1.99 4.32 0.103 26.96 2.31 0.055 168.92

50% Perc = 9.85 0.235 2.02 4.39 0.105 27.23 2.33 0.056 169.21

55% Perc = 9.99 0.239 2.04 4.46 0.106 27.49 2.34 0.056 169.50

60% Perc = 10.15 0.242 2.06 4.52 0.108 27.74 2.36 0.056 169.79

65% Perc = 10.31 0.246 2.09 4.58 0.109 27.99 2.38 0.057 170.14

70% Perc = 10.50 0.250 2.12 4.66 0.111 28.32 2.40 0.057 170.49

75% Perc = 10.67 0.255 2.15 4.75 0.113 28.65 2.42 0.058 170.90

80% Perc = 10.87 0.259 2.18 4.83 0.115 29.02 2.45 0.058 171.33

85% Perc = 11.08 0.264 2.22 4.94 0.118 29.50 2.47 0.059 171.85

90% Perc = 11.37 0.271 2.26 5.07 0.121 30.06 2.51 0.060 172.51

95% Perc = 11.79 0.281 2.34 5.26 0.126 30.87 2.57 0.061 173.45

Maximum = 13.52 0.323 2.61 6.09 0.145 34.20 2.81 0.067 177.76

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.14 10/31/2002
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

3.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.4 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.5 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

3.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.6 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.7 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.8 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

3.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.9 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.10 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.11 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

3.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.12 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Figure 4.2.13

 Spill Frequency CDF Sale 2 Year 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Produced CDF Sale 2 Year 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Sale 2 Year 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills Large Spills

2014

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

20082015

Average Spill [bbl] = Year

2004200520062007

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills Large Spills Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

20092010201120122013201620172018201920202021

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills Large Spills Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468

20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.29

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.29

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.3.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 30.8 0.749 0.024 0.043 1.653 0.054 0.611 2.402 0.078 0.654 1.649 0.054 6.557 0.507 0.016 8.847 4.558 0.148 16.0582020 38.6 0.749 0.019 0.043 1.653 0.043 0.611 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.0582021 38.6 0.749 0.019 0.043 1.653 0.043 0.611 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.0582022 38.6 0.749 0.019 0.043 1.653 0.043 0.611 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.0582023 38.6 0.749 0.019 0.043 1.653 0.043 0.611 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.0582024 38.6 0.749 0.019 0.043 1.653 0.043 0.611 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.0582025 34.0 0.749 0.022 0.043 1.653 0.049 0.611 2.402 0.071 0.654 1.649 0.048 6.557 0.507 0.015 8.847 4.558 0.134 16.0582026 29.9 0.749 0.025 0.043 1.653 0.055 0.611 2.402 0.080 0.654 1.649 0.055 6.557 0.507 0.017 8.847 4.558 0.152 16.0582027 26.3 0.749 0.028 0.043 1.653 0.063 0.611 2.402 0.091 0.654 1.649 0.063 6.557 0.507 0.019 8.847 4.558 0.173 16.0582028 23.2 0.749 0.032 0.043 1.653 0.071 0.611 2.402 0.104 0.654 1.649 0.071 6.557 0.507 0.022 8.847 4.558 0.196 16.0582029 20.4 0.749 0.037 0.043 1.653 0.081 0.611 2.402 0.118 0.654 1.649 0.081 6.557 0.507 0.025 8.847 4.558 0.223 16.0582030 17.9 0.749 0.042 0.043 1.653 0.092 0.611 2.402 0.134 0.654 1.649 0.092 6.557 0.507 0.028 8.847 4.558 0.255 16.0582031 15.8 0.749 0.047 0.036 1.653 0.105 0.547 2.402 0.152 0.583 1.649 0.104 5.910 0.507 0.032 8.292 4.558 0.288 14.7852032 13.9 0.749 0.054 0.043 1.653 0.119 0.611 2.402 0.173 0.654 1.649 0.119 6.557 0.507 0.036 8.847 4.558 0.328 16.0582033 12.2 0.749 0.061 0.043 1.653 0.136 0.611 2.402 0.197 0.654 1.649 0.135 6.557 0.507 0.042 8.847 4.558 0.374 16.0582034 10.8 0.749 0.069 0.043 1.653 0.153 0.611 2.402 0.222 0.654 1.649 0.153 6.557 0.507 0.047 8.847 4.558 0.422 16.0582035 9.5 0.749 0.079 0.043 1.653 0.174 0.611 2.402 0.253 0.654 1.649 0.174 6.557 0.507 0.053 8.847 4.558 0.480 16.0582036 8.3 0.749 0.090 0.043 1.653 0.199 0.611 2.402 0.289 0.654 1.649 0.199 6.557 0.507 0.061 8.847 4.558 0.549 16.0582037 7.3 0.749 0.103 0.043 1.653 0.227 0.611 2.402 0.329 0.654 1.649 0.226 6.557 0.507 0.069 8.847 4.558 0.624 16.0582038 6.5 0.749 0.115 0.043 1.653 0.254 0.611 2.402 0.370 0.654 1.649 0.254 6.557 0.507 0.078 8.847 4.558 0.701 16.058

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

2014

2015

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1 4 1.044 0.418 0.07 0.206 0.083 0.51

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 4 0.418 0.07 0.083 0.51

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 18 1.044 1.879 0.30 0.206 0.371 2.28

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 18 1.879 0.30 0.371 2.28

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 38 1.044 3.967 0.63 0.206 0.784 4.81

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 38 3.967 0.63 0.784 4.81

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 58 1.044 6.055 0.96 0.206 1.197 7.34

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 58 6.055 0.96 1.197 7.34

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2020

2021

2022

2023

2018

2019

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.418 0.066 0.083 0.506 0.500 0.572

2019 30.8 1.879 0.061 0.297 0.371 0.012 2.277 2.251 0.073 2.573

2020 38.6 3.967 0.103 0.627 0.784 0.020 4.806 4.751 0.123 5.433

2021 38.6 6.055 0.157 0.957 1.197 0.031 7.336 7.252 0.188 8.292

2022 38.6 7.099 0.184 1.122 1.403 0.036 8.600 8.502 0.220 9.722

2023 38.6 7.099 0.184 1.122 1.403 0.036 8.600 8.502 0.220 9.722

2024 38.6 7.099 0.184 1.122 1.403 0.036 8.600 8.502 0.220 9.722

2025 34.0 7.099 0.209 1.122 1.403 0.041 8.600 8.502 0.250 9.722

2026 29.9 7.099 0.237 1.122 1.403 0.047 8.600 8.502 0.284 9.722

2027 26.3 7.099 0.270 1.122 1.403 0.053 8.600 8.502 0.323 9.722

2028 23.2 7.099 0.306 1.122 1.403 0.060 8.600 8.502 0.366 9.722

2029 20.4 7.099 0.348 1.122 1.403 0.069 8.600 8.502 0.417 9.722

2030 17.9 7.099 0.397 1.122 1.403 0.078 8.600 8.502 0.475 9.722

2031 15.8 7.099 0.449 1.122 1.403 0.089 8.600 8.502 0.538 9.722

2032 13.9 7.099 0.511 1.122 1.403 0.101 8.600 8.502 0.612 9.722

2033 12.2 7.099 0.582 1.122 1.403 0.115 8.600 8.502 0.697 9.722

2034 10.8 7.099 0.657 1.122 1.403 0.130 8.600 8.502 0.787 9.722

2035 9.5 7.099 0.747 1.122 1.403 0.148 8.600 8.502 0.895 9.722

2036 8.3 7.099 0.855 1.122 1.403 0.169 8.600 8.502 1.024 9.722

2037 7.3 7.099 0.973 1.122 1.403 0.192 8.600 8.502 1.165 9.722

2038 6.5 7.099 1.092 1.122 1.403 0.216 8.600 8.502 1.308 9.722

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2017

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 4 0.500 0.020 0.01 3.500 0.140 0.63 1.500 0.060 1.20 1.000 0.040 8.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 4 0.020 0.01 0.140 0.63 0.060 1.20 0.040 8.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 18 0.500 0.090 0.05 3.500 0.630 2.84 1.500 0.270 5.40 1.000 0.180 36.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 18 0.090 0.05 0.630 2.84 0.270 5.40 0.180 36.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 38 0.500 0.190 0.10 3.500 1.330 5.99 1.500 0.570 11.40 1.000 0.380 76.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 38 0.190 0.10 1.330 5.99 0.570 11.40 0.380 76.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 58 0.500 0.290 0.15 3.500 2.030 9.14 1.500 0.870 17.40 1.000 0.580 116.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 58 0.290 0.15 2.030 9.14 0.870 17.40 0.580 116.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.020 0.010 0.060 0.630 0.100 9.200 0.180 9.840

2019 30.8 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

2020 38.6 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

2021 38.6 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

2022 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2023 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2024 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2025 34.0 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

2026 29.9 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

2027 26.3 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

2028 23.2 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

2029 20.4 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

2030 17.9 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

2031 15.8 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

2032 13.9 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

2033 12.2 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

2034 10.8 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

2035 9.5 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2013 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2014

2015 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2016

2017 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2018 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2017

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2014 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2015 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2016

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.045 0.022 0.134 1.404 0.228 21.480 0.407 22.906

2012

2013

2011

2010

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms 0.418 0.066 0.083 0.506 0.500 0.572

Production Wells 0.020 0.010 0.060 0.630 0.100 9.200 0.180 9.840

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.469 0.092 0.238 2.131 0.250 22.100 0.957 24.323

Pipeline 2.402 0.078 0.654 1.649 0.054 6.557 0.507 0.016 8.847 4.558 0.148 16.058

Platforms 1.879 0.061 0.297 0.371 0.012 2.277 2.251 0.073 2.573

Production Wells 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 4.372 0.142 0.996 2.290 0.074 11.668 0.957 0.031 50.247 7.619 0.247 62.912

Pipeline 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.058

Platforms 3.967 0.103 0.627 0.784 0.020 4.806 4.751 0.123 5.433

Production Wells 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 6.560 0.170 1.376 3.003 0.078 17.348 1.457 0.038 96.247 11.019 0.285 114.971

Pipeline 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.058

Platforms 6.055 0.157 0.957 1.197 0.031 7.336 7.252 0.188 8.292

Production Wells 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.748 0.227 1.756 3.716 0.096 23.027 1.957 0.051 142.247 14.420 0.374 167.031

Pipeline 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.184 1.122 1.403 0.036 8.600 8.502 0.220 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.255 1.946 4.072 0.105 25.867 2.207 0.057 165.247 16.120 0.418 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.184 1.122 1.403 0.036 8.600 8.502 0.220 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.255 1.946 4.072 0.105 25.867 2.207 0.057 165.247 16.120 0.418 193.061

2023 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2017

2018

2016

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.402 0.062 0.654 1.649 0.043 6.557 0.507 0.013 8.847 4.558 0.118 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.184 1.122 1.403 0.036 8.600 8.502 0.220 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.255 1.946 4.072 0.105 25.867 2.207 0.057 165.247 16.120 0.418 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.071 0.654 1.649 0.048 6.557 0.507 0.015 8.847 4.558 0.134 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.209 1.122 1.403 0.041 8.600 8.502 0.250 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.289 1.946 4.072 0.120 25.867 2.207 0.065 165.247 16.120 0.474 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.080 0.654 1.649 0.055 6.557 0.507 0.017 8.847 4.558 0.152 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.237 1.122 1.403 0.047 8.600 8.502 0.284 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.329 1.946 4.072 0.136 25.867 2.207 0.074 165.247 16.120 0.539 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.091 0.654 1.649 0.063 6.557 0.507 0.019 8.847 4.558 0.173 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.270 1.122 1.403 0.053 8.600 8.502 0.323 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.374 1.946 4.072 0.155 25.867 2.207 0.084 165.247 16.120 0.613 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.104 0.654 1.649 0.071 6.557 0.507 0.022 8.847 4.558 0.196 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.306 1.122 1.403 0.060 8.600 8.502 0.366 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.424 1.946 4.072 0.176 25.867 2.207 0.095 165.247 16.120 0.695 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.118 0.654 1.649 0.081 6.557 0.507 0.025 8.847 4.558 0.223 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.348 1.122 1.403 0.069 8.600 8.502 0.417 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.482 1.946 4.072 0.200 25.867 2.207 0.108 165.247 16.120 0.790 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.134 0.654 1.649 0.092 6.557 0.507 0.028 8.847 4.558 0.255 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.397 1.122 1.403 0.078 8.600 8.502 0.475 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.550 1.946 4.072 0.227 25.867 2.207 0.123 165.247 16.120 0.901 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.152 0.583 1.649 0.104 5.910 0.507 0.032 8.292 4.558 0.288 14.785

Platforms 7.099 0.449 1.122 1.403 0.089 8.600 8.502 0.538 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.623 1.875 4.072 0.258 25.221 2.207 0.140 164.692 16.120 1.020 191.787

Pipeline 2.402 0.173 0.654 1.649 0.119 6.557 0.507 0.036 8.847 4.558 0.328 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.511 1.122 1.403 0.101 8.600 8.502 0.612 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.708 1.946 4.072 0.293 25.867 2.207 0.159 165.247 16.120 1.160 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.197 0.654 1.649 0.135 6.557 0.507 0.042 8.847 4.558 0.374 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.582 1.122 1.403 0.115 8.600 8.502 0.697 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.807 1.946 4.072 0.334 25.867 2.207 0.181 165.247 16.120 1.321 193.061

2033 12.2

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2024 38.6

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.402 0.222 0.654 1.649 0.153 6.557 0.507 0.047 8.847 4.558 0.422 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.657 1.122 1.403 0.130 8.600 8.502 0.787 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 0.911 1.946 4.072 0.377 25.867 2.207 0.204 165.247 16.120 1.493 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.253 0.654 1.649 0.174 6.557 0.507 0.053 8.847 4.558 0.480 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.747 1.122 1.403 0.148 8.600 8.502 0.895 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.036 1.946 4.072 0.429 25.867 2.207 0.232 165.247 16.120 1.697 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.289 0.654 1.649 0.199 6.557 0.507 0.061 8.847 4.558 0.549 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.855 1.122 1.403 0.169 8.600 8.502 1.024 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.186 1.946 4.072 0.491 25.867 2.207 0.266 165.247 16.120 1.942 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.329 0.654 1.649 0.226 6.557 0.507 0.069 8.847 4.558 0.624 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.973 1.122 1.403 0.192 8.600 8.502 1.165 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.348 1.946 4.072 0.558 25.867 2.207 0.302 165.247 16.120 2.208 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.370 0.654 1.649 0.254 6.557 0.507 0.078 8.847 4.558 0.701 16.058

Platforms 7.099 1.092 1.122 1.403 0.216 8.600 8.502 1.308 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.514 1.946 4.072 0.626 25.867 2.207 0.340 165.247 16.120 2.480 193.061

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2034 10.8

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2013 0.04 0.022 0.13 1.404 0.228 21.48 0.407 22.906

2014 0.03 0.013 0.08 0.817 0.156 17.16 0.260 17.990

2015 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2016

2017 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2018 0.47 0.092 0.24 2.131 0.250 22.10 0.957 24.323

2019 30.8 4.37 0.142 0.996 2.29 0.074 11.668 0.957 0.031 50.25 7.619 0.247 62.912

2020 38.6 6.56 0.170 1.376 3.00 0.078 17.348 1.457 0.038 96.25 11.019 0.285 114.971

2021 38.6 8.75 0.227 1.756 3.72 0.096 23.027 1.957 0.051 142.25 14.420 0.374 167.031

2022 38.6 9.84 0.255 1.946 4.07 0.105 25.867 2.207 0.057 165.25 16.120 0.418 193.061

2023 38.6 9.84 0.255 1.946 4.07 0.105 25.867 2.207 0.057 165.25 16.120 0.418 193.061

2024 38.6 9.84 0.255 1.946 4.07 0.105 25.867 2.207 0.057 165.25 16.120 0.418 193.061

2025 34.0 9.84 0.289 1.946 4.07 0.120 25.867 2.207 0.065 165.25 16.120 0.474 193.061

2026 29.9 9.84 0.329 1.946 4.07 0.136 25.867 2.207 0.074 165.25 16.120 0.539 193.061

2027 26.3 9.84 0.374 1.946 4.07 0.155 25.867 2.207 0.084 165.25 16.120 0.613 193.061

2028 23.2 9.84 0.424 1.946 4.07 0.176 25.867 2.207 0.095 165.25 16.120 0.695 193.061

2029 20.4 9.84 0.482 1.946 4.07 0.200 25.867 2.207 0.108 165.25 16.120 0.790 193.061

2030 17.9 9.84 0.550 1.946 4.07 0.227 25.867 2.207 0.123 165.25 16.120 0.901 193.061

2031 15.8 9.84 0.623 1.875 4.07 0.258 25.221 2.207 0.140 164.69 16.120 1.020 191.787

2032 13.9 9.84 0.708 1.946 4.07 0.293 25.867 2.207 0.159 165.25 16.120 1.160 193.061

2033 12.2 9.84 0.807 1.946 4.07 0.334 25.867 2.207 0.181 165.25 16.120 1.321 193.061

2034 10.8 9.84 0.911 1.946 4.07 0.377 25.867 2.207 0.204 165.25 16.120 1.493 193.061

2035 9.5 9.84 1.036 1.946 4.07 0.429 25.867 2.207 0.232 165.25 16.120 1.697 193.061

2036 8.3 9.84 1.186 1.946 4.07 0.491 25.867 2.207 0.266 165.25 16.120 1.942 193.061

2037 7.3 9.84 1.348 1.946 4.07 0.558 25.867 2.207 0.302 165.25 16.120 2.208 193.061

2038 6.5 9.84 1.514 1.946 4.07 0.626 25.867 2.207 0.340 165.25 16.120 2.480 193.061

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.12 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2013 0.045 0.022 0.134 1.404 0.228 21.480 0.407 22.906

2014 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2015 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2016

2017 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2018 0.052 0.026 0.155 1.625 0.250 22.100 0.457 23.751

2019 30.8 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

2020 38.6 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

2021 38.6 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

2022 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2023 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2024 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2025 34.0 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

2026 29.9 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

2027 26.3 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

2028 23.2 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

2029 20.4 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

2030 17.9 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

2031 15.8 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

2032 13.9 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

2033 12.2 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

2034 10.8 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

2035 9.5 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.3.14

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

SALE 3

Year

2024

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Mean = 9.60 0.249 1.92 4.07 0.105 25.87 2.21 0.057 165.25

Std Deviation = 1.52 0.039 0.25 0.38 0.010 1.85 0.09 0.002 1.55

Variance = 2.31 0.002 0.06 0.15 0.000 3.41 0.01 0.000 2.40

Skewness = 0.13 0.129 0.13 0.19 0.185 0.17 0.27 0.271 0.27

Kurtosis = 2.75 2.752 2.78 2.73 2.728 2.72 2.78 2.778 2.77

Mode = 11.52 0.273 1.84 4.13 0.098 24.75 2.11 0.055 163.36

Minimum = 5.25 0.136 1.22 2.99 0.077 20.62 1.97 0.051 161.06

5% Perc = 7.15 0.185 1.52 3.47 0.090 22.96 2.07 0.054 162.81

10% Perc = 7.62 0.197 1.60 3.58 0.093 23.49 2.10 0.054 163.31

15% Perc = 8.00 0.207 1.66 3.67 0.095 23.91 2.11 0.055 163.63

20% Perc = 8.29 0.215 1.70 3.74 0.097 24.26 2.13 0.055 163.92

25% Perc = 8.54 0.221 1.75 3.79 0.098 24.56 2.14 0.056 164.13

30% Perc = 8.76 0.227 1.78 3.85 0.100 24.82 2.15 0.056 164.34

35% Perc = 8.98 0.233 1.82 3.90 0.101 25.07 2.17 0.056 164.53

40% Perc = 9.18 0.238 1.85 3.95 0.102 25.30 2.18 0.056 164.75

45% Perc = 9.38 0.243 1.88 4.01 0.104 25.52 2.19 0.057 164.94

50% Perc = 9.57 0.248 1.91 4.05 0.105 25.77 2.20 0.057 165.15

55% Perc = 9.77 0.253 1.95 4.10 0.106 26.02 2.21 0.057 165.36

60% Perc = 9.96 0.258 1.98 4.16 0.108 26.30 2.23 0.058 165.58

65% Perc = 10.16 0.263 2.01 4.22 0.109 26.56 2.24 0.058 165.80

70% Perc = 10.37 0.269 2.04 4.27 0.111 26.87 2.25 0.058 166.02

75% Perc = 10.61 0.275 2.08 4.34 0.112 27.14 2.27 0.059 166.29

80% Perc = 10.88 0.282 2.12 4.41 0.114 27.46 2.28 0.059 166.60

85% Perc = 11.21 0.290 2.18 4.49 0.116 27.88 2.30 0.060 166.93

90% Perc = 11.65 0.302 2.24 4.58 0.119 28.32 2.33 0.060 167.32

95% Perc = 12.16 0.315 2.33 4.73 0.122 29.02 2.36 0.061 167.93

Maximum = 14.38 0.372 2.67 5.40 0.140 32.13 2.51 0.065 170.58

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.14 10/31/2002
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.4 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.5 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.6 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.7 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.8 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.9 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.10 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

9876543210

1716151413121110

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.11 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.12 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

0

80604020

200180160140120100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Figure 4.3.13

 Spill Frequency CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Produced CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Sale 3 Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.220 0.01 0.498 0.19 0.565 2.22 0.174Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 10 1.367 0.220 0.01 3.095 0.498 0.19 3.514 0.565 2.22 1.081 0.174Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.220 0.01 0.498 0.19 0.565 2.22 0.174Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 20 1.367 0.440 0.03 3.095 0.996 0.39 3.514 1.131 4.45 1.081 0.348Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 20 0.440 0.03 0.996 0.39 1.131 4.45 0.348Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 35 1.367 0.770 0.04 3.095 1.743 0.67 3.514 1.979 7.78 1.081 0.609Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 35 0.770 0.04 1.743 0.67 1.979 7.78 0.609Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 35 1.367 0.770 0.04 3.095 1.743 0.67 3.514 1.979 7.78 1.081 0.609Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 35 0.770 0.04 1.743 0.67 1.979 7.78 0.609Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 45 1.367 0.990 0.06 3.095 2.241 0.87 3.514 2.544 10.00 1.081 0.783Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 55 1.178 0.07 2.686 1.04 2.981 11.72 0.921Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 45 1.367 0.990 0.06 3.095 2.241 0.87 3.514 2.544 10.00 1.081 0.783Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 10 1.170 0.188 0.01 2.765 0.445 0.17 2.714 0.437 1.72 0.860 0.138Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 55 1.178 0.07 2.686 1.04 2.981 11.72 0.921Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 55 1.367 1.210 0.07 3.095 2.739 1.06 3.514 3.110 12.23 1.081 0.957Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 20 1.170 0.377 0.02 2.765 0.890 0.34 2.714 0.873 3.43 0.860 0.277Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 75 1.586 0.09 3.629 1.40 3.983 15.66 1.233Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 55 1.367 1.210 0.07 3.095 2.739 1.06 3.514 3.110 12.23 1.081 0.957Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 20 1.170 0.377 0.02 2.765 0.890 0.34 2.714 0.873 3.43 0.860 0.277Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 75 1.586 0.09 3.629 1.40 3.983 15.66 1.233Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 70 1.367 1.540 0.09 3.095 3.486 1.35 3.514 3.958 15.56 1.081 1.217Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 105 2.199 0.13 5.043 1.95 5.486 21.57 1.702Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 70 1.367 1.540 0.09 3.095 3.486 1.35 3.514 3.958 15.56 1.081 1.217Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 105 2.199 0.13 5.043 1.95 5.486 21.57 1.702Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 70 1.367 1.540 0.09 3.095 3.486 1.35 3.514 3.958 15.56 1.081 1.217Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 105 2.199 0.13 5.043 1.95 5.486 21.57 1.702

Average Spill [bbl] = Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004200520062007200820142015

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

20092010201120122013201620172018201920202021

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Average Spill [bbl] = Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 70 1.367 1.540 0.09 3.095 3.486 1.35 3.514 3.958 15.56 1.081 1.217Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 105 2.199 0.13 5.043 1.95 5.486 21.57 1.702Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 70 1.367 1.540 0.09 3.095 3.486 1.35 3.514 3.958 15.56 1.081 1.217Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 105 2.199 0.13 5.043 1.95 5.486 21.57 1.702Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 70 1.367 1.540 0.09 3.095 3.486 1.35 3.514 3.958 15.56 1.081 1.217Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 105 2.199 0.13 5.043 1.95 5.486 21.57 1.702Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 60 1.367 1.320 0.08 3.095 2.988 1.16 3.514 3.392 13.34 1.081 1.044Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 95 1.979 0.11 4.545 1.76 4.921 19.35 1.528Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 60 1.367 1.320 0.08 3.095 2.988 1.16 3.514 3.392 13.34 1.081 1.044Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 95 1.979 0.11 4.545 1.76 4.921 19.35 1.528Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 50 1.367 1.100 0.06 3.095 2.490 0.96 3.514 2.827 11.12 1.081 0.870Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 85 1.759 0.10 4.047 1.57 4.355 17.12 1.354Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 35 1.367 0.770 0.04 3.095 1.743 0.67 3.514 1.979 7.78 1.081 0.609Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 70 1.429 0.08 3.300 1.28 3.507 13.79 1.093Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 35 1.367 0.770 0.04 3.095 1.743 0.67 3.514 1.979 7.78 1.081 0.609Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 35 1.170 0.659 0.04 2.765 1.557 0.60 2.714 1.528 6.01 0.860 0.484Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 70 1.429 0.08 3.300 1.28 3.507 13.79 1.093Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 25 1.170 0.471 0.03 2.765 1.112 0.43 2.714 1.092 4.29 0.860 0.346Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 50 1.021 0.06 2.357 0.91 2.505 9.85 0.781Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 25 1.170 0.471 0.03 2.765 1.112 0.43 2.714 1.092 4.29 0.860 0.346Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 50 1.021 0.06 2.357 0.91 2.505 9.85 0.781Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 25 1.170 0.471 0.03 2.765 1.112 0.43 2.714 1.092 4.29 0.860 0.346Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 50 1.021 0.06 2.357 0.91 2.505 9.85 0.781Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 25 1.170 0.471 0.03 2.765 1.112 0.43 2.714 1.092 4.29 0.860 0.346Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 50 1.021 0.06 2.357 0.91 2.505 9.85 0.781Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 25 1.170 0.471 0.03 2.765 1.112 0.43 2.714 1.092 4.29 0.860 0.346Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 50 1.021 0.06 2.357 0.91 2.505 9.85 0.781Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 25 1.367 0.550 0.03 3.095 1.245 0.48 3.514 1.413 5.56 1.081 0.435Medium 10 1.697 0.273 0.02 2.973 0.478 0.13 1.812 0.292 1.29 0.478 0.077 1.11 25 1.170 0.471 0.03 2.765 1.112 0.43 2.714 1.092 4.29 0.860 0.346Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 10 0.273 0.02 0.478 0.13 0.292 1.29 0.077 1.11 50 1.021 0.06 2.357 0.91 2.505 9.85 0.781Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 15 1.367 0.330 0.02 3.095 0.747 0.29 3.514 0.848 3.33 1.081 0.261Medium 5 1.697 0.136 0.01 2.973 0.239 0.06 1.812 0.146 0.65 0.478 0.038 0.55 15 1.170 0.282 0.02 2.765 0.667 0.26 2.714 0.655 2.58 0.860 0.207Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652Total 5 0.136 0.01 0.239 0.06 0.146 0.65 0.038 0.55 30 0.612 0.04 1.414 0.55 1.503 5.91 0.468

20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

3.083.083.083.086.166.16

10.7810.7810.7810.7813.86

2.45

16.3113.86

2.45

16.3116.94

4.90

21.8316.94

4.90

21.8321.56

8.57

30.1321.56

8.57

30.1321.56

8.57

30.13

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

21.56

8.57

30.1321.56

8.57

30.1321.56

8.57

30.1318.48

8.57

27.0518.48

8.57

27.0515.40

8.57

23.9710.78

8.57

19.3510.78

8.57

19.35

7.706.12

13.82

7.706.12

13.82

7.706.12

13.82

7.706.12

13.82

7.706.12

13.82

7.706.12

13.82

4.623.678.294.623.678.294.623.678.29

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.220 0.020 0.013 0.498 0.046 0.193 0.718 0.066 0.205 0.565 0.052 2.223 0.174 0.016 3.079 1.457 0.134 5.5082011 19.9 0.220 0.011 0.013 0.498 0.025 0.193 0.718 0.036 0.205 0.565 0.028 2.223 0.174 0.009 3.079 1.457 0.073 5.5082012 30.8 0.440 0.014 0.026 0.996 0.032 0.385 1.436 0.047 0.411 1.131 0.037 4.446 0.348 0.011 6.159 2.915 0.095 11.0162013 50.7 0.770 0.015 0.045 1.743 0.034 0.675 2.513 0.050 0.719 1.979 0.039 7.781 0.609 0.012 10.778 5.101 0.101 19.2782014 56.2 0.770 0.014 0.045 1.743 0.031 0.675 2.513 0.045 0.719 1.979 0.035 7.781 0.609 0.011 10.778 5.101 0.091 19.2782015 64.2 1.178 0.018 0.068 2.686 0.042 1.039 3.864 0.060 1.108 2.981 0.046 11.721 0.921 0.014 16.306 7.766 0.121 29.1352016 67.4 1.178 0.017 0.068 2.686 0.040 1.039 3.864 0.057 1.108 2.981 0.044 11.721 0.921 0.014 16.306 7.766 0.115 29.1352017 77.4 1.723 0.022 0.100 3.868 0.050 1.468 5.591 0.072 1.568 4.129 0.053 16.308 1.272 0.016 22.389 10.991 0.142 40.2652018 82.9 1.723 0.021 0.100 3.868 0.047 1.468 5.591 0.067 1.568 4.129 0.050 16.308 1.272 0.015 22.389 10.991 0.133 40.2652019 104.6 2.472 0.024 0.143 5.522 0.053 2.079 7.993 0.076 2.222 5.778 0.055 22.865 1.779 0.017 31.237 15.549 0.149 56.3232020 104.8 2.472 0.024 0.143 5.522 0.053 2.079 7.993 0.076 2.222 5.778 0.055 22.865 1.779 0.017 31.237 15.549 0.148 56.3232021 98.6 2.472 0.025 0.143 5.522 0.056 2.079 7.993 0.081 2.222 5.778 0.059 22.865 1.779 0.018 31.237 15.549 0.158 56.3232022 89.2 2.472 0.028 0.143 5.522 0.062 2.079 7.993 0.090 2.222 5.778 0.065 22.865 1.779 0.020 31.237 15.549 0.174 56.3232023 81.4 2.472 0.030 0.143 5.522 0.068 2.079 7.993 0.098 2.222 5.778 0.071 22.865 1.779 0.022 31.237 15.549 0.191 56.3232024 74.8 2.472 0.033 0.143 5.522 0.074 2.079 7.993 0.107 2.222 5.778 0.077 22.865 1.779 0.024 31.237 15.549 0.208 56.3232025 62.5 2.252 0.036 0.131 5.024 0.080 1.886 7.275 0.116 2.017 5.212 0.083 20.641 1.605 0.026 28.157 14.092 0.225 50.8152026 54.1 2.252 0.042 0.131 5.024 0.093 1.886 7.275 0.134 2.017 5.212 0.096 20.641 1.605 0.030 28.157 14.092 0.260 50.8152027 44.6 2.032 0.046 0.118 4.525 0.101 1.693 6.557 0.147 1.811 4.647 0.104 18.418 1.431 0.032 25.078 12.635 0.283 45.3072028 36.9 1.702 0.046 0.099 3.778 0.102 1.404 5.480 0.149 1.503 3.799 0.103 15.084 1.170 0.032 20.459 10.449 0.283 37.0452029 32.2 1.702 0.053 0.099 3.778 0.117 1.404 5.480 0.170 1.503 3.799 0.118 15.084 1.170 0.036 20.459 10.449 0.324 37.0452030 25.8 1.294 0.050 0.075 2.836 0.110 1.039 4.129 0.160 1.115 2.797 0.108 11.143 0.858 0.033 14.931 7.783 0.302 27.1892031 22.6 1.294 0.057 0.059 2.836 0.125 0.912 4.129 0.183 0.971 2.797 0.124 9.850 0.858 0.038 13.821 7.783 0.344 24.6422032 19.7 1.294 0.066 0.075 2.836 0.144 1.039 4.129 0.210 1.115 2.797 0.142 11.143 0.858 0.044 14.931 7.783 0.395 27.1892033 17.2 1.294 0.075 0.075 2.836 0.165 1.039 4.129 0.240 1.115 2.797 0.163 11.143 0.858 0.050 14.931 7.783 0.453 27.1892034 15.1 1.294 0.086 0.075 2.836 0.188 1.039 4.129 0.273 1.115 2.797 0.185 11.143 0.858 0.057 14.931 7.783 0.515 27.1892035 13.2 1.294 0.098 0.075 2.836 0.215 1.039 4.129 0.313 1.115 2.797 0.212 11.143 0.858 0.065 14.931 7.783 0.590 27.1892036 8.3 0.749 0.090 0.043 1.653 0.199 0.611 2.402 0.289 0.654 1.649 0.199 6.557 0.507 0.061 8.847 4.558 0.549 16.0582037 7.3 0.749 0.103 0.043 1.653 0.227 0.611 2.402 0.329 0.654 1.649 0.226 6.557 0.507 0.069 8.847 4.558 0.624 16.0582038 6.5 0.749 0.115 0.043 1.653 0.254 0.611 2.402 0.370 0.654 1.649 0.254 6.557 0.507 0.078 8.847 4.558 0.701 16.058

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.964 0.289 0.05 0.192 0.058 0.35

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 3 0.289 0.05 0.058 0.35

Shallow 1 13 0.964 1.254 0.20 0.192 0.250 1.53

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 1 13 1.254 0.20 0.250 1.53

Shallow 2 26 0.964 2.508 0.40 0.192 0.500 3.06

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 26 2.508 0.40 0.500 3.06

Shallow 3 39 0.964 3.761 0.59 0.192 0.750 4.60

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 39 3.761 0.59 0.750 4.60

Shallow 3 59 0.964 5.690 0.90 0.192 1.134 6.95

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 3 59 5.690 0.90 1.134 6.95

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 1 3 1.044 0.313 0.05 0.206 0.062 0.38

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 72 6.968 1.10 1.389 8.51

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 1 13 1.044 1.357 0.21 0.206 0.268 1.64

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 82 8.012 1.27 1.595 9.78

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 2 26 1.044 2.714 0.43 0.206 0.536 3.29

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 5 95 9.369 1.48 1.863 11.42

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 3 39 1.044 4.072 0.64 0.206 0.805 4.93

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 6 108 10.726 1.69 2.131 13.07

2014

2015

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 4 63 1.044 6.577 1.04 0.206 1.300 7.97

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 7 132 13.232 2.09 2.627 16.10

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 5 87 1.044 9.083 1.44 0.206 1.795 11.00

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 8 156 15.738 2.49 3.122 19.14

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 5 107 1.044 11.171 1.77 0.206 2.208 13.53

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 8 176 17.826 2.82 3.534 21.67

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 5 127 1.044 13.259 2.09 0.206 2.620 16.06

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 8 196 19.914 3.15 3.947 24.20

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 8 206 20.958 3.31 4.153 25.46

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 8 206 20.958 3.31 4.153 25.46

Shallow 3 69 0.964 6.655 1.05 0.192 1.327 8.13

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 8 206 20.958 3.31 4.153 25.46

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 7 183 18.739 2.96 3.711 22.75

Shallow 2 46 0.964 4.436 0.70 0.192 0.884 5.42

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 7 183 18.739 2.96 3.711 22.75

Shallow 1 23 0.964 2.218 0.35 0.192 0.442 2.71

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 6 160 16.521 2.61 3.269 20.04

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 5 137 14.303 2.26 2.827 17.33

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 5 137 1.044 14.303 2.26 0.206 2.827 17.33

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 5 137 14.303 2.26 2.827 17.33

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 4 114 1.044 11.902 1.88 0.206 2.352 14.42

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 114 11.902 1.88 2.352 14.42

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 4 114 1.044 11.902 1.88 0.206 2.352 14.42

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 114 11.902 1.88 2.352 14.42

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2020

2021

2022

2023

2018

2019

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 4 114 1.044 11.902 1.88 0.206 2.352 14.42

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 114 11.902 1.88 2.352 14.42

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 4 114 1.044 11.902 1.88 0.206 2.352 14.42

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 114 11.902 1.88 2.352 14.42

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 4 114 1.044 11.902 1.88 0.206 2.352 14.42

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 114 11.902 1.88 2.352 14.42

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 4 114 1.044 11.902 1.88 0.206 2.352 14.42

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 4 114 11.902 1.88 2.352 14.42

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 2 68 1.044 7.099 1.12 0.206 1.403 8.60

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total 2 68 7.099 1.12 1.403 8.60

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.289 0.046 0.058 0.354 0.347 0.399

2010 10.9 1.254 0.115 0.198 0.250 0.023 1.532 1.504 0.138 1.730

2011 19.9 2.508 0.126 0.396 0.500 0.025 3.065 3.007 0.151 3.461

2012 30.8 3.761 0.122 0.594 0.750 0.024 4.597 4.511 0.146 5.191

2013 50.7 5.690 0.112 0.899 1.134 0.022 6.954 6.825 0.135 7.853

2014 56.2 6.968 0.124 1.101 1.389 0.025 8.512 8.357 0.149 9.613

2015 64.2 8.012 0.125 1.266 1.595 0.025 9.777 9.607 0.150 11.043

2016 67.4 9.369 0.139 1.480 1.863 0.028 11.421 11.232 0.167 12.902

2017 77.4 10.726 0.139 1.695 2.131 0.028 13.065 12.858 0.166 14.760

2018 82.9 13.232 0.160 2.091 2.627 0.032 16.101 15.859 0.191 18.192

2019 104.6 15.738 0.150 2.487 3.122 0.030 19.136 18.859 0.180 21.623

2020 104.8 17.826 0.170 2.816 3.534 0.034 21.666 21.360 0.204 24.482

2021 98.6 19.914 0.202 3.146 3.947 0.040 24.195 23.861 0.242 27.342

2022 89.2 20.958 0.235 3.311 4.153 0.047 25.460 25.111 0.282 28.771

2023 81.4 20.958 0.257 3.311 4.153 0.051 25.460 25.111 0.308 28.771

2024 74.8 20.958 0.280 3.311 4.153 0.056 25.460 25.111 0.336 28.771

2025 62.5 18.739 0.300 2.961 3.711 0.059 22.749 22.451 0.359 25.710

2026 54.1 18.739 0.346 2.961 3.711 0.069 22.749 22.451 0.415 25.710

2027 44.6 16.521 0.370 2.610 3.269 0.073 20.038 19.790 0.444 22.649

2028 36.9 14.303 0.388 2.260 2.827 0.077 17.327 17.130 0.464 19.587

2029 32.2 14.303 0.444 2.260 2.827 0.088 17.327 17.130 0.532 19.587

2030 25.8 11.902 0.461 1.880 2.352 0.091 14.418 14.254 0.552 16.299

2031 22.6 11.902 0.527 1.880 2.352 0.104 14.418 14.254 0.631 16.299

2032 19.7 11.902 0.604 1.880 2.352 0.119 14.418 14.254 0.724 16.299

2033 17.2 11.902 0.692 1.880 2.352 0.137 14.418 14.254 0.829 16.299

2034 15.1 11.902 0.788 1.880 2.352 0.156 14.418 14.254 0.944 16.299

2035 13.2 11.902 0.902 1.880 2.352 0.178 14.418 14.254 1.080 16.299

2036 8.3 7.099 0.855 1.122 1.403 0.169 8.600 8.502 1.024 9.722

2037 7.3 7.099 0.973 1.122 1.403 0.192 8.600 8.502 1.165 9.722

2038 6.5 7.099 1.092 1.122 1.403 0.216 8.600 8.502 1.308 9.722

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

Shallow 59 0.500 0.295 0.15 3.500 2.065 9.29 1.500 0.885 17.70 1.000 0.590 118.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 72 0.360 0.18 2.520 11.34 1.080 21.60 0.720 144.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 82 0.410 0.21 2.870 12.92 1.230 24.60 0.820 164.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 95 0.475 0.24 3.325 14.96 1.425 28.50 0.950 190.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

2017

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsAverage Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 63 0.500 0.315 0.16 3.500 2.205 9.92 1.500 0.945 18.90 1.000 0.630 126.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 132 0.660 0.33 4.620 20.79 1.980 39.60 1.320 264.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 87 0.500 0.435 0.22 3.500 3.045 13.70 1.500 1.305 26.10 1.000 0.870 174.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 156 0.780 0.39 5.460 24.57 2.340 46.80 1.560 312.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 107 0.500 0.535 0.27 3.500 3.745 16.85 1.500 1.605 32.10 1.000 1.070 214.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 176 0.880 0.44 6.160 27.72 2.640 52.80 1.760 352.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 127 0.500 0.635 0.32 3.500 4.445 20.00 1.500 1.905 38.10 1.000 1.270 254.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 196 0.980 0.49 6.860 30.87 2.940 58.80 1.960 392.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 160 0.800 0.40 5.600 25.20 2.400 48.00 1.600 320.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsAverage Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

2013 50.7 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

2014 56.2 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

2015 64.2 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

2018 82.9 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2017

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

2011 19.9

2012 30.8 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

2013 50.7 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

2014 56.2

2015 64.2 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2016 67.4

2017 77.4 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2018 82.9 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 3 1.300 0.039 0.02 9.080 0.272 1.23 3.900 0.117 2.34 3.900 0.117 23.40

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 3 0.039 0.02 0.272 1.23 0.117 2.34 0.117 23.40

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 4 1.300 0.052 0.03 9.080 0.363 1.63 3.900 0.156 3.12 3.900 0.156 31.20

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 4 0.052 0.03 0.363 1.63 0.156 3.12 0.156 31.20

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2017

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2005

2006

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsAverage Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N WellsAverage Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 50.7 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

2014 56.2 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

2015 64.2 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

2016 67.4

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline

Platforms 0.289 0.046 0.058 0.354 0.347 0.399

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.362 0.082 0.276 2.638 0.381 36.960 1.019 39.680

Pipeline 0.718 0.066 0.205 0.565 0.052 2.223 0.174 0.016 3.079 1.457 0.134 5.508

Platforms 1.254 0.115 0.198 0.250 0.023 1.532 1.504 0.138 1.730

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 2.126 0.195 0.481 1.278 0.117 8.610 0.955 0.088 75.939 4.359 0.400 85.030

Pipeline 0.718 0.036 0.205 0.565 0.028 2.223 0.174 0.009 3.079 1.457 0.073 5.508

Platforms 2.508 0.126 0.396 0.500 0.025 3.065 3.007 0.151 3.461

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.356 0.169 0.667 1.455 0.073 9.383 0.824 0.041 62.879 5.635 0.283 72.929

Pipeline 1.436 0.047 0.411 1.131 0.037 4.446 0.348 0.011 6.159 2.915 0.095 11.016

Platforms 3.761 0.122 0.594 0.750 0.024 4.597 4.511 0.146 5.191

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

Development Wells

Total 5.487 0.178 1.150 2.751 0.089 18.170 1.773 0.058 134.559 10.011 0.325 153.879

Pipeline 2.513 0.050 0.719 1.979 0.039 7.781 0.609 0.012 10.778 5.101 0.101 19.278

Platforms 5.690 0.112 0.899 1.134 0.022 6.954 6.825 0.135 7.853

Production Wells 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

Development Wells 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

Total 8.600 0.170 1.817 4.305 0.085 27.243 2.618 0.052 198.018 15.524 0.306 227.078

2012 30.8

2013 50.7

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.513 0.045 0.719 1.979 0.035 7.781 0.609 0.011 10.778 5.101 0.091 19.278

Platforms 6.968 0.124 1.101 1.389 0.025 8.512 8.357 0.149 9.613

Production Wells 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

Total 9.893 0.176 2.026 4.604 0.082 29.268 2.721 0.048 210.698 17.217 0.306 241.992

Pipeline 3.864 0.060 1.108 2.981 0.046 11.721 0.921 0.014 16.306 7.766 0.121 29.135

Platforms 8.012 0.125 1.266 1.595 0.025 9.777 9.607 0.150 11.043

Production Wells 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

Total 12.344 0.192 2.607 5.979 0.093 36.225 3.277 0.051 234.966 21.599 0.336 273.799

Pipeline 3.864 0.057 1.108 2.981 0.044 11.721 0.921 0.014 16.306 7.766 0.115 29.135

Platforms 9.369 0.139 1.480 1.863 0.028 11.421 11.232 0.167 12.902

Production Wells 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.708 0.203 2.826 6.269 0.093 38.105 3.296 0.049 234.806 23.273 0.345 275.737

Pipeline 5.591 0.072 1.568 4.129 0.053 16.308 1.272 0.016 22.389 10.991 0.142 40.265

Platforms 10.726 0.139 1.695 2.131 0.028 13.065 12.858 0.166 14.760

Production Wells 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells

Total 16.889 0.218 3.548 7.975 0.103 47.378 4.122 0.053 283.689 28.986 0.374 334.616

Pipeline 5.591 0.067 1.568 4.129 0.050 16.308 1.272 0.015 22.389 10.991 0.133 40.265

Platforms 13.232 0.160 2.091 2.627 0.032 16.101 15.859 0.191 18.192

Production Wells 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

Development Wells

Total 19.514 0.235 4.004 8.830 0.107 54.194 4.722 0.057 338.889 33.067 0.399 397.087

Pipeline 7.993 0.076 2.222 5.778 0.055 22.865 1.779 0.017 31.237 15.549 0.149 56.323

Platforms 15.738 0.150 2.487 3.122 0.030 19.136 18.859 0.180 21.623

Production Wells 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.511 0.234 5.099 11.239 0.107 66.571 5.679 0.054 390.037 41.429 0.396 461.706

Pipeline 7.993 0.076 2.222 5.778 0.055 22.865 1.779 0.017 31.237 15.549 0.148 56.323

Platforms 17.826 0.170 2.816 3.534 0.034 21.666 21.360 0.204 24.482

Production Wells 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 26.699 0.255 5.479 11.952 0.114 72.250 6.179 0.059 436.037 44.829 0.428 513.766

Pipeline 7.993 0.081 2.222 5.778 0.059 22.865 1.779 0.018 31.237 15.549 0.158 56.323

Platforms 19.914 0.202 3.146 3.947 0.040 24.195 23.861 0.242 27.342

Production Wells 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.887 0.293 5.859 12.665 0.128 77.930 6.679 0.068 482.037 48.230 0.489 565.825

Pipeline 7.993 0.090 2.222 5.778 0.065 22.865 1.779 0.020 31.237 15.549 0.174 56.323

Platforms 20.958 0.235 3.311 4.153 0.047 25.460 25.111 0.282 28.771

Production Wells 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.981 0.336 6.049 13.021 0.146 80.770 6.929 0.078 505.037 49.930 0.560 591.855

Pipeline 7.993 0.098 2.222 5.778 0.071 22.865 1.779 0.022 31.237 15.549 0.191 56.323

Platforms 20.958 0.257 3.311 4.153 0.051 25.460 25.111 0.308 28.771

Production Wells 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.981 0.368 6.049 13.021 0.160 80.770 6.929 0.085 505.037 49.930 0.613 591.855

2023 81.4

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2016 67.4

2014 56.2

2015 64.2

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 7.993 0.107 2.222 5.778 0.077 22.865 1.779 0.024 31.237 15.549 0.208 56.323

Platforms 20.958 0.280 3.311 4.153 0.056 25.460 25.111 0.336 28.771

Production Wells 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.981 0.401 6.049 13.021 0.174 80.770 6.929 0.093 505.037 49.930 0.668 591.855

Pipeline 7.275 0.116 2.017 5.212 0.083 20.641 1.605 0.026 28.157 14.092 0.225 50.815

Platforms 18.739 0.300 2.961 3.711 0.059 22.749 22.451 0.359 25.710

Production Wells 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 26.930 0.431 5.435 11.668 0.187 72.213 6.180 0.099 449.057 44.778 0.716 526.705

Pipeline 7.275 0.134 2.017 5.212 0.096 20.641 1.605 0.030 28.157 14.092 0.260 50.815

Platforms 18.739 0.346 2.961 3.711 0.069 22.749 22.451 0.415 25.710

Production Wells 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 26.930 0.498 5.435 11.668 0.216 72.213 6.180 0.114 449.057 44.778 0.828 526.705

Pipeline 6.557 0.147 1.811 4.647 0.104 18.418 1.431 0.032 25.078 12.635 0.283 45.307

Platforms 16.521 0.370 2.610 3.269 0.073 20.038 19.790 0.444 22.649

Production Wells 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 23.878 0.535 4.822 10.316 0.231 63.656 5.431 0.122 393.078 39.625 0.888 461.556

Pipeline 5.480 0.149 1.503 3.799 0.103 15.084 1.170 0.032 20.459 10.449 0.283 37.045

Platforms 14.303 0.388 2.260 2.827 0.077 17.327 17.130 0.464 19.587

Production Wells 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.468 0.555 4.105 8.680 0.235 53.988 4.595 0.125 335.559 33.743 0.914 393.653

Pipeline 5.480 0.170 1.503 3.799 0.118 15.084 1.170 0.036 20.459 10.449 0.324 37.045

Platforms 14.303 0.444 2.260 2.827 0.088 17.327 17.130 0.532 19.587

Production Wells 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.468 0.636 4.105 8.680 0.270 53.988 4.595 0.143 335.559 33.743 1.048 393.653

Pipeline 4.129 0.160 1.115 2.797 0.108 11.143 0.858 0.033 14.931 7.783 0.302 27.189

Platforms 11.902 0.461 1.880 2.352 0.091 14.418 14.254 0.552 16.299

Production Wells 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 16.601 0.643 3.280 6.859 0.266 43.517 3.708 0.144 277.131 27.167 1.053 323.927

Pipeline 4.129 0.183 0.971 2.797 0.124 9.850 0.858 0.038 13.821 7.783 0.344 24.642

Platforms 11.902 0.527 1.880 2.352 0.104 14.418 14.254 0.631 16.299

Production Wells 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 16.601 0.735 3.137 6.859 0.303 42.223 3.708 0.164 276.021 27.167 1.202 321.381

Pipeline 4.129 0.210 1.115 2.797 0.142 11.143 0.858 0.044 14.931 7.783 0.395 27.189

Platforms 11.902 0.604 1.880 2.352 0.119 14.418 14.254 0.724 16.299

Production Wells 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 16.601 0.843 3.280 6.859 0.348 43.517 3.708 0.188 277.131 27.167 1.379 323.927

Pipeline 4.129 0.240 1.115 2.797 0.163 11.143 0.858 0.050 14.931 7.783 0.453 27.189

Platforms 11.902 0.692 1.880 2.352 0.137 14.418 14.254 0.829 16.299

Production Wells 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 16.601 0.965 3.280 6.859 0.399 43.517 3.708 0.216 277.131 27.167 1.579 323.927

2033 17.2

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2024 74.8

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 4.129 0.273 1.115 2.797 0.185 11.143 0.858 0.057 14.931 7.783 0.515 27.189

Platforms 11.902 0.788 1.880 2.352 0.156 14.418 14.254 0.944 16.299

Production Wells 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 16.601 1.099 3.280 6.859 0.454 43.517 3.708 0.246 277.131 27.167 1.799 323.927

Pipeline 4.129 0.313 1.115 2.797 0.212 11.143 0.858 0.065 14.931 7.783 0.590 27.189

Platforms 11.902 0.902 1.880 2.352 0.178 14.418 14.254 1.080 16.299

Production Wells 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 16.601 1.258 3.280 6.859 0.520 43.517 3.708 0.281 277.131 27.167 2.058 323.927

Pipeline 2.402 0.289 0.654 1.649 0.199 6.557 0.507 0.061 8.847 4.558 0.549 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.855 1.122 1.403 0.169 8.600 8.502 1.024 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.186 1.946 4.072 0.491 25.867 2.207 0.266 165.247 16.120 1.942 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.329 0.654 1.649 0.226 6.557 0.507 0.069 8.847 4.558 0.624 16.058

Platforms 7.099 0.973 1.122 1.403 0.192 8.600 8.502 1.165 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.348 1.946 4.072 0.558 25.867 2.207 0.302 165.247 16.120 2.208 193.061

Pipeline 2.402 0.370 0.654 1.649 0.254 6.557 0.507 0.078 8.847 4.558 0.701 16.058

Platforms 7.099 1.092 1.122 1.403 0.216 8.600 8.502 1.308 9.722

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 9.842 1.514 1.946 4.072 0.626 25.867 2.207 0.340 165.247 16.120 2.480 193.061

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2034 15.1

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.06 0.032 0.19 1.990 0.300 25.80 0.553 27.822

2008 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

2009 0.36 0.082 0.28 2.638 0.381 36.96 1.019 39.680

2010 10.9 2.13 0.195 0.481 1.28 0.117 8.610 0.955 0.088 75.94 4.359 0.400 85.030

2011 19.9 3.36 0.169 0.667 1.46 0.073 9.383 0.824 0.041 62.88 5.635 0.283 72.929

2012 30.8 5.49 0.178 1.150 2.75 0.089 18.170 1.773 0.058 134.56 10.011 0.325 153.879

2013 50.7 8.60 0.170 1.817 4.31 0.085 27.243 2.618 0.052 198.02 15.524 0.306 227.078

2014 56.2 9.89 0.176 2.026 4.60 0.082 29.268 2.721 0.048 210.70 17.217 0.306 241.992

2015 64.2 12.34 0.192 2.607 5.98 0.093 36.225 3.277 0.051 234.97 21.599 0.336 273.799

2016 67.4 13.71 0.203 2.826 6.27 0.093 38.105 3.296 0.049 234.81 23.273 0.345 275.737

2017 77.4 16.89 0.218 3.548 7.98 0.103 47.378 4.122 0.053 283.69 28.986 0.374 334.616

2018 82.9 19.51 0.235 4.004 8.83 0.107 54.194 4.722 0.057 338.89 33.067 0.399 397.087

2019 104.6 24.51 0.234 5.099 11.24 0.107 66.571 5.679 0.054 390.04 41.429 0.396 461.706

2020 104.8 26.70 0.255 5.479 11.95 0.114 72.250 6.179 0.059 436.04 44.829 0.428 513.766

2021 98.6 28.89 0.293 5.859 12.66 0.128 77.930 6.679 0.068 482.04 48.230 0.489 565.825

2022 89.2 29.98 0.336 6.049 13.02 0.146 80.770 6.929 0.078 505.04 49.930 0.560 591.855

2023 81.4 29.98 0.368 6.049 13.02 0.160 80.770 6.929 0.085 505.04 49.930 0.613 591.855

2024 74.8 29.98 0.401 6.049 13.02 0.174 80.770 6.929 0.093 505.04 49.930 0.668 591.855

2025 62.5 26.93 0.431 5.435 11.67 0.187 72.213 6.180 0.099 449.06 44.778 0.716 526.705

2026 54.1 26.93 0.498 5.435 11.67 0.216 72.213 6.180 0.114 449.06 44.778 0.828 526.705

2027 44.6 23.88 0.535 4.822 10.32 0.231 63.656 5.431 0.122 393.08 39.625 0.888 461.556

2028 36.9 20.47 0.555 4.105 8.68 0.235 53.988 4.595 0.125 335.56 33.743 0.914 393.653

2029 32.2 20.47 0.636 4.105 8.68 0.270 53.988 4.595 0.143 335.56 33.743 1.048 393.653

2030 25.8 16.60 0.643 3.280 6.86 0.266 43.517 3.708 0.144 277.13 27.167 1.053 323.927

2031 22.6 16.60 0.735 3.137 6.86 0.303 42.223 3.708 0.164 276.02 27.167 1.202 321.381

2032 19.7 16.60 0.843 3.280 6.86 0.348 43.517 3.708 0.188 277.13 27.167 1.379 323.927

2033 17.2 16.60 0.965 3.280 6.86 0.399 43.517 3.708 0.216 277.13 27.167 1.579 323.927

2034 15.1 16.60 1.099 3.280 6.86 0.454 43.517 3.708 0.246 277.13 27.167 1.799 323.927

2035 13.2 16.60 1.258 3.280 6.86 0.520 43.517 3.708 0.281 277.13 27.167 2.058 323.927

2036 8.3 9.84 1.186 1.946 4.07 0.491 25.867 2.207 0.266 165.25 16.120 1.942 193.061

2037 7.3 9.84 1.348 1.946 4.07 0.558 25.867 2.207 0.302 165.25 16.120 2.208 193.061

2038 6.5 9.84 1.514 1.946 4.07 0.626 25.867 2.207 0.340 165.25 16.120 2.480 193.061

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.12 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

2009 0.073 0.036 0.218 2.285 0.381 36.960 0.672 39.281

2010 10.9 0.154 0.014 0.077 0.463 0.042 4.855 0.781 0.072 72.860 1.398 0.128 77.792

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.290 0.009 0.145 0.870 0.028 9.127 1.425 0.046 128.400 2.585 0.084 137.672

2013 50.7 0.397 0.008 0.199 1.192 0.024 12.508 2.009 0.040 187.240 3.598 0.071 199.947

2014 56.2 0.412 0.007 0.206 1.236 0.022 12.974 2.112 0.038 199.920 3.760 0.067 213.100

2015 64.2 0.468 0.007 0.234 1.403 0.022 14.727 2.356 0.037 218.660 4.227 0.066 233.621

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.572 0.007 0.286 1.715 0.022 18.005 2.850 0.037 261.300 5.137 0.066 279.591

2018 82.9 0.692 0.008 0.346 2.075 0.025 21.785 3.450 0.042 316.500 6.217 0.075 338.631

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.13 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.14

Beaufort Sea Sale All Sales 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

SALE All

Year

2024

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Mean = 29.17 0.390 5.96 13.02 0.174 80.77 6.93 0.093 505.04

Std Deviation = 3.34 0.045 0.57 1.35 0.018 5.77 0.36 0.005 6.31

Variance = 11.18 0.002 0.32 1.81 0.000 33.33 0.13 0.000 39.79

Skewness = 0.06 0.060 0.07 0.34 0.336 0.27 0.36 0.358 0.36

Kurtosis = 2.83 2.829 2.87 2.74 2.739 2.78 2.61 2.607 2.60

Mode = 26.51 0.354 5.66 11.40 0.152 82.18 6.71 0.091 495.14

Minimum = 17.63 0.236 3.95 9.57 0.128 64.64 6.03 0.081 489.05

5% Perc = 23.71 0.317 5.03 10.99 0.147 71.88 6.40 0.086 495.77

10% Perc = 24.93 0.333 5.23 11.37 0.152 73.51 6.49 0.087 497.23

15% Perc = 25.63 0.343 5.36 11.63 0.155 74.77 6.55 0.088 498.40

20% Perc = 26.25 0.351 5.46 11.83 0.158 75.73 6.61 0.088 499.37

25% Perc = 26.74 0.358 5.57 12.03 0.161 76.60 6.66 0.089 500.23

30% Perc = 27.30 0.365 5.65 12.22 0.163 77.45 6.71 0.090 501.12

35% Perc = 27.77 0.371 5.72 12.41 0.166 78.23 6.76 0.090 501.96

40% Perc = 28.24 0.378 5.80 12.58 0.168 78.93 6.80 0.091 502.80

45% Perc = 28.70 0.384 5.88 12.74 0.170 79.69 6.85 0.092 503.59

50% Perc = 29.19 0.390 5.95 12.89 0.172 80.39 6.89 0.092 504.44

55% Perc = 29.62 0.396 6.02 13.08 0.175 81.16 6.94 0.093 505.17

60% Perc = 30.06 0.402 6.09 13.28 0.177 81.95 6.99 0.093 506.15

65% Perc = 30.48 0.407 6.17 13.47 0.180 82.73 7.05 0.094 507.20

70% Perc = 30.94 0.414 6.25 13.70 0.183 83.67 7.11 0.095 508.25

75% Perc = 31.46 0.421 6.35 13.93 0.186 84.61 7.18 0.096 509.45

80% Perc = 32.05 0.428 6.45 14.18 0.190 85.73 7.25 0.097 510.74

85% Perc = 32.64 0.436 6.55 14.47 0.193 86.93 7.32 0.098 512.04

90% Perc = 33.46 0.447 6.70 14.87 0.199 88.61 7.43 0.099 513.88

95% Perc = 34.66 0.463 6.90 15.45 0.207 91.04 7.57 0.101 516.24

Maximum = 40.96 0.548 8.15 17.65 0.236 100.90 8.12 0.108 525.86

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.14 10/31/2002
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency

50

504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

50

600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.4 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - P/L

50

504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.5 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.6 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - P/L

0

50

600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.7 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Platforms

50

504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.8 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.9 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Platforms

0

50

600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.10 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Wells

50

504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.11 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.12 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Wells

0

50

600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Figure 4.4.13

 Spill Frequency CDF All Sales Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF All sales Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Sale All Sales 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.13 10/31/2002
Figure 4.4.13A

 Spill Frequency CDF All Sales Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All Spill Sizes

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF All sales Year 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl 

Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium

Spills

All spill Sizes

 Spill Index CDF Sale All Sales 2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium

Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

All Spill Sizes

Bercha Group C4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.13A 10/31/2002
Table 4.4.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 10 1.802 0.290 0.02 4.504 0.725 0.28 5.405 0.870 3.42 1.802 0.290Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.290 0.02 0.725 0.28 0.870 3.42 0.290Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 10 1.802 0.290 0.02 4.504 0.725 0.28 5.405 0.870 3.42 1.802 0.290Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.290 0.02 0.725 0.28 0.870 3.42 0.290Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 20 1.802 0.580 0.03 4.504 1.449 0.56 5.405 1.739 6.84 1.802 0.580Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 20 0.580 0.03 1.449 0.56 1.739 6.84 0.580Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 35 1.015 0.06 2.536 0.98 3.044 11.97 1.015Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 35 1.015 0.06 2.536 0.98 3.044 11.97 1.015Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 45 1.802 1.304 0.08 4.504 3.261 1.26 5.405 3.913 15.39 1.802 1.304Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 10 1.802 0.290 0.02 4.504 0.725 0.28 5.405 0.870 3.42 1.802 0.290Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 55 1.594 0.09 3.986 1.54 4.783 18.81 1.594Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 45 1.802 1.304 0.08 4.504 3.261 1.26 5.405 3.913 15.39 1.802 1.304Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 10 1.802 0.290 0.02 4.504 0.725 0.28 5.405 0.870 3.42 1.802 0.290Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 55 1.594 0.09 3.986 1.54 4.783 18.81 1.594Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 55 1.802 1.594 0.09 4.504 3.986 1.54 5.405 4.783 18.81 1.802 1.594Medium 5 2.799 0.225 0.01 4.899 0.394 0.10 2.799 0.225 1.00 0.700 0.056 0.81 20 1.802 0.580 0.03 4.504 1.449 0.56 5.405 1.739 6.84 1.802 0.580Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 5 0.225 0.01 0.394 0.10 0.225 1.00 0.056 0.81 75 2.174 0.13 5.435 2.10 6.522 25.65 2.174Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 55 1.802 1.594 0.09 4.504 3.986 1.54 5.405 4.783 18.81 1.802 1.594Medium 5 2.799 0.225 0.01 4.899 0.394 0.10 2.799 0.225 1.00 0.700 0.056 0.81 20 1.802 0.580 0.03 4.504 1.449 0.56 5.405 1.739 6.84 1.802 0.580Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 5 0.225 0.01 0.394 0.10 0.225 1.00 0.056 0.81 75 2.174 0.13 5.435 2.10 6.522 25.65 2.174Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 70 1.802 2.029 0.12 4.504 5.073 1.96 5.405 6.088 23.94 1.802 2.029Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 105 3.044 0.18 7.609 2.94 9.131 35.90 3.044Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 70 1.802 2.029 0.12 4.504 5.073 1.96 5.405 6.088 23.94 1.802 2.029Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 105 3.044 0.18 7.609 2.94 9.131 35.90 3.044Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 70 1.802 2.029 0.12 4.504 5.073 1.96 5.405 6.088 23.94 1.802 2.029Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 105 3.044 0.18 7.609 2.94 9.131 35.90 3.044

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills Large Spills

2014

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

20082015

Average Spill [bbl] = Year

2004200520062007

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills Large Spills Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

20092010201120122013201620172018201920202021

C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills Large Spills Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 70 1.802 2.029 0.12 4.504 5.073 1.96 5.405 6.088 23.94 1.802 2.029Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 105 3.044 0.18 7.609 2.94 9.131 35.90 3.044Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 70 1.802 2.029 0.12 4.504 5.073 1.96 5.405 6.088 23.94 1.802 2.029Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 105 3.044 0.18 7.609 2.94 9.131 35.90 3.044Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 70 1.802 2.029 0.12 4.504 5.073 1.96 5.405 6.088 23.94 1.802 2.029Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 105 3.044 0.18 7.609 2.94 9.131 35.90 3.044Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 95 2.754 0.16 6.885 2.66 8.262 32.48 2.754Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 95 2.754 0.16 6.885 2.66 8.262 32.48 2.754Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 50 1.802 1.449 0.08 4.504 3.624 1.40 5.405 4.348 17.10 1.802 1.449Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 85 2.464 0.14 6.160 2.38 7.392 29.07 2.464Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 70 2.029 0.12 5.073 1.96 6.088 23.94 2.029Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 35 1.802 1.015 0.06 4.504 2.536 0.98 5.405 3.044 11.97 1.802 1.015Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 70 2.029 0.12 5.073 1.96 6.088 23.94 2.029Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 50 1.449 0.08 3.624 1.40 4.348 17.10 1.449Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 50 1.449 0.08 3.624 1.40 4.348 17.10 1.449Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 50 1.449 0.08 3.624 1.40 4.348 17.10 1.449Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 50 1.449 0.08 3.624 1.40 4.348 17.10 1.449Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 50 1.449 0.08 3.624 1.40 4.348 17.10 1.449Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Medium 10 2.799 0.450 0.03 4.899 0.788 0.21 2.799 0.450 2.00 0.700 0.113 1.62 25 1.802 0.725 0.04 4.504 1.812 0.70 5.405 2.174 8.55 1.802 0.725Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 10 0.450 0.03 0.788 0.21 0.450 2.00 0.113 1.62 50 1.449 0.08 3.624 1.40 4.348 17.10 1.449Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 15 1.802 0.435 0.03 4.504 1.087 0.42 5.405 1.304 5.13 1.802 0.435Medium 5 2.799 0.225 0.01 4.899 0.394 0.10 2.799 0.225 1.00 0.700 0.056 0.81 15 1.802 0.435 0.03 4.504 1.087 0.42 5.405 1.304 5.13 1.802 0.435Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 5 0.225 0.01 0.394 0.10 0.225 1.00 0.056 0.81 30 0.870 0.05 2.174 0.84 2.609 10.26 0.870Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 15 1.802 0.435 0.03 4.504 1.087 0.42 5.405 1.304 5.13 1.802 0.435Medium 5 2.799 0.225 0.01 4.899 0.394 0.10 2.799 0.225 1.00 0.700 0.056 0.81 15 1.802 0.435 0.03 4.504 1.087 0.42 5.405 1.304 5.13 1.802 0.435Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 5 0.225 0.01 0.394 0.10 0.225 1.00 0.056 0.81 30 0.870 0.05 2.174 0.84 2.609 10.26 0.870Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 15 1.802 0.435 0.03 4.504 1.087 0.42 5.405 1.304 5.13 1.802 0.435Medium 5 2.799 0.225 0.01 4.899 0.394 0.10 2.799 0.225 1.00 0.700 0.056 0.81 15 1.802 0.435 0.03 4.504 1.087 0.42 5.405 1.304 5.13 1.802 0.435Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Total 5 0.225 0.01 0.394 0.10 0.225 1.00 0.056 0.81 30 0.870 0.05 2.174 0.84 2.609 10.26 0.870

20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038

C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

5.135.135.135.13

10.2610.2617.9617.9617.9617.9623.10

5.13

28.2323.10

5.13

28.2328.2310.2638.4928.2310.2638.4935.9317.9653.8935.9317.9653.8935.9317.9653.89

C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

35.9317.9653.8935.9317.9653.8935.9317.9653.8930.7917.9648.7630.7917.9648.7625.6617.9643.6317.9617.9635.9317.9617.9635.9312.8312.8325.6612.8312.8325.6612.8312.8325.6612.8312.8325.6612.8312.8325.6612.8312.8325.66

7.707.70

15.40

7.707.70

15.40

7.707.70

15.40

C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4A.2

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.290 0.027 0.017 0.725 0.066 0.280 1.015 0.093 0.297 0.870 0.080 3.419 0.290 0.027 5.132 2.174 0.199 8.8492011 19.9 0.290 0.015 0.017 0.725 0.036 0.280 1.015 0.051 0.297 0.870 0.044 3.419 0.290 0.015 5.132 2.174 0.109 8.8492012 30.8 0.580 0.019 0.034 1.449 0.047 0.561 2.029 0.066 0.595 1.739 0.056 6.839 0.580 0.019 10.265 4.348 0.141 17.6982013 50.7 1.015 0.020 0.059 2.536 0.050 0.982 3.551 0.070 1.040 3.044 0.060 11.968 1.015 0.020 17.963 7.609 0.150 30.9722014 56.2 1.015 0.018 0.059 2.536 0.045 0.982 3.551 0.063 1.040 3.044 0.054 11.968 1.015 0.018 17.963 7.609 0.135 30.9722015 64.2 1.594 0.025 0.092 3.986 0.062 1.543 5.580 0.087 1.635 4.783 0.075 18.807 1.594 0.025 28.228 11.958 0.186 48.6702016 67.4 1.594 0.024 0.092 3.986 0.059 1.543 5.580 0.083 1.635 4.783 0.071 18.807 1.594 0.024 28.228 11.958 0.177 48.6702017 77.4 2.399 0.031 0.139 5.829 0.075 2.208 8.229 0.106 2.347 6.748 0.087 26.645 2.230 0.029 39.305 17.207 0.222 68.2972018 82.9 2.399 0.029 0.139 5.829 0.070 2.208 8.229 0.099 2.347 6.748 0.081 26.645 2.230 0.027 39.305 17.207 0.208 68.2972019 104.6 3.494 0.033 0.203 8.398 0.080 3.155 11.892 0.114 3.357 9.582 0.092 37.902 3.156 0.030 55.514 24.630 0.235 96.7732020 104.8 3.494 0.033 0.203 8.398 0.080 3.155 11.892 0.113 3.357 9.582 0.091 37.902 3.156 0.030 55.514 24.630 0.235 96.7732021 98.6 3.494 0.035 0.203 8.398 0.085 3.155 11.892 0.121 3.357 9.582 0.097 37.902 3.156 0.032 55.514 24.630 0.250 96.7732022 89.2 3.494 0.039 0.203 8.398 0.094 3.155 11.892 0.133 3.357 9.582 0.107 37.902 3.156 0.035 55.514 24.630 0.276 96.7732023 81.4 3.494 0.043 0.203 8.398 0.103 3.155 11.892 0.146 3.357 9.582 0.118 37.902 3.156 0.039 55.514 24.630 0.303 96.7732024 74.8 3.494 0.047 0.203 8.398 0.112 3.155 11.892 0.159 3.357 9.582 0.128 37.902 3.156 0.042 55.514 24.630 0.329 96.7732025 62.5 3.204 0.051 0.186 7.673 0.123 2.874 10.877 0.174 3.060 8.712 0.139 34.483 2.866 0.046 50.381 22.456 0.359 87.9242026 54.1 3.204 0.059 0.186 7.673 0.142 2.874 10.877 0.201 3.060 8.712 0.161 34.483 2.866 0.053 50.381 22.456 0.415 87.9242027 44.6 2.914 0.065 0.169 6.948 0.156 2.594 9.863 0.221 2.763 7.842 0.176 31.063 2.577 0.058 45.249 20.282 0.455 79.0752028 36.9 2.480 0.067 0.144 5.861 0.159 2.173 8.341 0.226 2.317 6.538 0.177 25.934 2.142 0.058 37.551 17.020 0.461 65.8012029 32.2 2.480 0.077 0.144 5.861 0.182 2.173 8.341 0.259 2.317 6.538 0.203 25.934 2.142 0.067 37.551 17.020 0.529 65.8012030 25.8 1.900 0.074 0.110 4.412 0.171 1.612 6.312 0.245 1.722 4.799 0.186 19.095 1.562 0.061 27.286 12.672 0.491 48.1032031 22.6 1.900 0.084 0.084 4.412 0.195 1.402 6.312 0.279 1.486 4.799 0.212 17.097 1.562 0.069 25.662 12.672 0.561 44.2452032 19.7 1.900 0.096 0.110 4.412 0.224 1.612 6.312 0.320 1.722 4.799 0.244 19.095 1.562 0.079 27.286 12.672 0.643 48.1032033 17.2 1.900 0.110 0.110 4.412 0.256 1.612 6.312 0.367 1.722 4.799 0.279 19.095 1.562 0.091 27.286 12.672 0.737 48.1032034 15.1 1.900 0.126 0.110 4.412 0.292 1.612 6.312 0.418 1.722 4.799 0.318 19.095 1.562 0.103 27.286 12.672 0.839 48.1032035 13.2 1.900 0.144 0.110 4.412 0.334 1.612 6.312 0.478 1.722 4.799 0.364 19.095 1.562 0.118 27.286 12.672 0.960 48.1032036 8.3 1.095 0.132 0.064 2.568 0.309 0.946 3.663 0.441 1.010 2.834 0.341 11.257 0.926 0.112 16.209 7.423 0.894 28.4762037 7.3 1.095 0.150 0.064 2.568 0.352 0.946 3.663 0.502 1.010 2.834 0.388 11.257 0.926 0.127 16.209 7.423 1.017 28.4762038 6.5 1.095 0.168 0.064 2.568 0.395 0.946 3.663 0.564 1.010 2.834 0.436 11.257 0.926 0.142 16.209 7.423 1.142 28.476

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.4A.3

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1 3 1.504 0.451 0.07 0.251 0.075 0.46

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 1 3 0.451 0.07 0.075 0.46

Shallow 1 13 1.504 1.955 0.31 0.251 0.326 2.00

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 1 13 1.955 0.31 0.326 2.00

Shallow 2 26 1.504 3.909 0.62 0.251 0.652 3.99

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 2 26 3.909 0.62 0.652 3.99

Shallow 3 39 1.504 5.864 0.93 0.251 0.977 5.99

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 3 39 5.864 0.93 0.977 5.99

Shallow 3 59 1.504 8.871 1.40 0.251 1.479 9.06

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 3 59 8.871 1.40 1.479 9.06

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 1 3 1.504 0.451 0.07 0.251 0.075 0.46

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 72 10.826 1.71 1.804 11.06

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 1 13 1.504 1.955 0.31 0.251 0.326 2.00

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 82 12.329 1.95 2.055 12.60

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 2 26 1.504 3.909 0.62 0.251 0.652 3.99

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 5 95 14.284 2.26 2.381 14.59

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 3 39 1.504 5.864 0.93 0.251 0.977 5.99

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 6 108 16.239 2.57 2.706 16.59

2014

2015

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.3

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 4 63 1.504 9.473 1.50 0.251 1.579 9.68

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 7 132 19.847 3.14 3.308 20.28

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 5 87 1.504 13.081 2.07 0.251 2.180 13.36

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 8 156 23.456 3.71 3.909 23.96

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 5 107 1.504 16.088 2.54 0.251 2.681 16.44

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 8 176 26.463 4.18 4.411 27.04

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 5 127 1.504 19.096 3.02 0.251 3.183 19.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 8 196 29.470 4.66 4.912 30.11

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 8 206 30.974 4.89 5.162 31.64

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 8 206 30.974 4.89 5.162 31.64

Shallow 3 69 1.504 10.375 1.64 0.251 1.729 10.60

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 8 206 30.974 4.89 5.162 31.64

Shallow 2 46 1.504 6.916 1.09 0.251 1.153 7.07

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 7 183 27.516 4.35 4.586 28.11

Shallow 2 46 1.504 6.916 1.09 0.251 1.153 7.07

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 7 183 27.516 4.35 4.586 28.11

Shallow 1 23 1.504 3.458 0.55 0.251 0.576 3.53

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 6 160 24.057 3.80 4.010 24.58

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 5 137 20.599 3.25 3.433 21.05

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 5 137 1.504 20.599 3.25 0.251 3.433 21.05

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 5 137 20.599 3.25 3.433 21.05

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 4 114 1.504 17.141 2.71 0.251 2.857 17.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 114 17.141 2.71 2.857 17.51

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 4 114 1.504 17.141 2.71 0.251 2.857 17.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 114 17.141 2.71 2.857 17.51

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2020

2021

2022

2023

2018

2019

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.3

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 4 114 1.504 17.141 2.71 0.251 2.857 17.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 114 17.141 2.71 2.857 17.51

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 4 114 1.504 17.141 2.71 0.251 2.857 17.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 114 17.141 2.71 2.857 17.51

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 4 114 1.504 17.141 2.71 0.251 2.857 17.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 114 17.141 2.71 2.857 17.51

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 4 114 1.504 17.141 2.71 0.251 2.857 17.51

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 4 114 17.141 2.71 2.857 17.51

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 2 68 1.504 10.224 1.62 0.251 1.704 10.45

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 2 68 10.224 1.62 1.704 10.45

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 2 68 1.504 10.224 1.62 0.251 1.704 10.45

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 2 68 10.224 1.62 1.704 10.45

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 2 68 1.504 10.224 1.62 0.251 1.704 10.45

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total 2 68 10.224 1.62 1.704 10.45

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.4

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.451 0.071 0.075 0.461 0.526 0.532

2010 10.9 1.955 0.179 0.309 0.326 0.030 1.997 2.280 0.209 2.306

2011 19.9 3.909 0.196 0.618 0.652 0.033 3.994 4.561 0.229 4.612

2012 30.8 5.864 0.190 0.927 0.977 0.032 5.991 6.841 0.222 6.918

2013 50.7 8.871 0.175 1.402 1.479 0.029 9.063 10.350 0.204 10.465

2014 56.2 10.826 0.193 1.710 1.804 0.032 11.060 12.630 0.225 12.771

2015 64.2 12.329 0.192 1.948 2.055 0.032 12.597 14.384 0.224 14.545

2016 67.4 14.284 0.212 2.257 2.381 0.035 14.594 16.665 0.247 16.850

2017 77.4 16.239 0.210 2.566 2.706 0.035 16.591 18.945 0.245 19.156

2018 82.9 19.847 0.239 3.136 3.308 0.040 20.277 23.155 0.279 23.413

2019 104.6 23.456 0.224 3.706 3.909 0.037 23.964 27.365 0.262 27.670

2020 104.8 26.463 0.253 4.181 4.411 0.042 27.036 30.874 0.295 31.218

2021 98.6 29.470 0.299 4.656 4.912 0.050 30.109 34.382 0.349 34.765

2022 89.2 30.974 0.347 4.894 5.162 0.058 31.645 36.136 0.405 36.539

2023 81.4 30.974 0.381 4.894 5.162 0.063 31.645 36.136 0.444 36.539

2024 74.8 30.974 0.414 4.894 5.162 0.069 31.645 36.136 0.483 36.539

2025 62.5 27.516 0.440 4.347 4.586 0.073 28.112 32.102 0.514 32.459

2026 54.1 27.516 0.509 4.347 4.586 0.085 28.112 32.102 0.593 32.459

2027 44.6 24.057 0.539 3.801 4.010 0.090 24.579 28.067 0.629 28.380

2028 36.9 20.599 0.558 3.255 3.433 0.093 21.045 24.032 0.651 24.300

2029 32.2 20.599 0.640 3.255 3.433 0.107 21.045 24.032 0.746 24.300

2030 25.8 17.141 0.664 2.708 2.857 0.111 17.512 19.998 0.775 20.220

2031 22.6 17.141 0.758 2.708 2.857 0.126 17.512 19.998 0.885 20.220

2032 19.7 17.141 0.870 2.708 2.857 0.145 17.512 19.998 1.015 20.220

2033 17.2 17.141 0.997 2.708 2.857 0.166 17.512 19.998 1.163 20.220

2034 15.1 17.141 1.135 2.708 2.857 0.189 17.512 19.998 1.324 20.220

2035 13.2 17.141 1.299 2.708 2.857 0.216 17.512 19.998 1.515 20.220

2036 8.3 10.224 1.232 1.615 1.704 0.205 10.446 11.928 1.437 12.061

2037 7.3 10.224 1.401 1.615 1.704 0.233 10.446 11.928 1.634 12.061

2038 6.5 10.224 1.573 1.615 1.704 0.262 10.446 11.928 1.835 12.061

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.5

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

Shallow 59 0.500 0.295 0.15 3.500 2.065 9.29 1.500 0.885 17.70 1.000 0.590 118.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 72 0.360 0.18 2.520 11.34 1.080 21.60 0.720 144.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 82 0.410 0.21 2.870 12.92 1.230 24.60 0.820 164.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 95 0.475 0.24 3.325 14.96 1.425 28.50 0.950 190.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

2017

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.5

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 63 0.500 0.315 0.16 3.500 2.205 9.92 1.500 0.945 18.90 1.000 0.630 126.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 132 0.660 0.33 4.620 20.79 1.980 39.60 1.320 264.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 87 0.500 0.435 0.22 3.500 3.045 13.70 1.500 1.305 26.10 1.000 0.870 174.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 156 0.780 0.39 5.460 24.57 2.340 46.80 1.560 312.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 107 0.500 0.535 0.27 3.500 3.745 16.85 1.500 1.605 32.10 1.000 1.070 214.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 176 0.880 0.44 6.160 27.72 2.640 52.80 1.760 352.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 127 0.500 0.635 0.32 3.500 4.445 20.00 1.500 1.905 38.10 1.000 1.270 254.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 196 0.980 0.49 6.860 30.87 2.940 58.80 1.960 392.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 160 0.800 0.40 5.600 25.20 2.400 48.00 1.600 320.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.5

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.6

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

2013 50.7 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

2014 56.2 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

2015 64.2 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

2018 82.9 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.7

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.7

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.7

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.8

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

2011 19.9

2012 30.8 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

2013 50.7 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

2014 56.2

2015 64.2 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2016 67.4

2017 77.4 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2018 82.9 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.9

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 3 1.300 0.039 0.02 9.080 0.272 1.23 3.900 0.117 2.34 3.900 0.117 23.40

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 3 0.039 0.02 0.272 1.23 0.117 2.34 0.117 23.40

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 4 1.300 0.052 0.03 9.080 0.363 1.63 3.900 0.156 3.12 3.900 0.156 31.20

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 4 0.052 0.03 0.363 1.63 0.156 3.12 0.156 31.20

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2017

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.9

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.9

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.10

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells 

Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 50.7 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

2014 56.2 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

2015 64.2 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

2016 67.4

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline

Platforms 0.451 0.071 0.075 0.461 0.526 0.532

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.524 0.108 0.293 2.745 0.381 36.960 1.198 39.813

Pipeline 1.015 0.093 0.297 0.870 0.080 3.419 0.290 0.027 5.132 2.174 0.199 8.849

Platforms 1.955 0.179 0.309 0.326 0.030 1.997 2.280 0.209 2.306

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 3.123 0.287 0.683 1.658 0.152 10.271 1.071 0.098 77.992 5.853 0.537 88.947

Pipeline 1.015 0.051 0.297 0.870 0.044 3.419 0.290 0.015 5.132 2.174 0.109 8.849

Platforms 3.909 0.196 0.618 0.652 0.033 3.994 4.561 0.229 4.612

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.054 0.254 0.980 1.911 0.096 11.508 0.940 0.047 64.932 7.905 0.397 77.421

Pipeline 2.029 0.066 0.595 1.739 0.056 6.839 0.580 0.019 10.265 4.348 0.141 17.698

Platforms 5.864 0.190 0.927 0.977 0.032 5.991 6.841 0.222 6.918

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

Development Wells

Total 8.183 0.266 1.666 3.587 0.116 21.957 2.005 0.065 138.665 13.774 0.447 162.288

Pipeline 3.551 0.070 1.040 3.044 0.060 11.968 1.015 0.020 17.963 7.609 0.150 30.972

Platforms 8.871 0.175 1.402 1.479 0.029 9.063 10.350 0.204 10.465

Production Wells 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

Development Wells 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

Total 12.819 0.253 2.641 5.714 0.113 33.540 3.024 0.060 205.203 21.557 0.425 241.384

2012 30.8

2013 50.7

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 3.551 0.063 1.040 3.044 0.054 11.968 1.015 0.018 17.963 7.609 0.135 30.972

Platforms 10.826 0.193 1.710 1.804 0.032 11.060 12.630 0.225 12.771

Production Wells 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

Total 14.789 0.263 2.957 6.084 0.108 36.003 3.127 0.056 217.883 24.000 0.427 256.843

Pipeline 5.580 0.087 1.635 4.783 0.075 18.807 1.594 0.025 28.228 11.958 0.186 48.670

Platforms 12.329 0.192 1.948 2.055 0.032 12.597 14.384 0.224 14.545

Production Wells 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

Total 18.377 0.286 3.817 8.241 0.128 46.131 3.950 0.062 246.888 30.569 0.476 296.835

Pipeline 5.580 0.083 1.635 4.783 0.071 18.807 1.594 0.024 28.228 11.958 0.177 48.670

Platforms 14.284 0.212 2.257 2.381 0.035 14.594 16.665 0.247 16.850

Production Wells 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.339 0.302 4.129 8.589 0.127 48.363 3.969 0.059 246.728 32.897 0.488 299.220

Pipeline 8.229 0.106 2.347 6.748 0.087 26.645 2.230 0.029 39.305 17.207 0.222 68.297

Platforms 16.239 0.210 2.566 2.706 0.035 16.591 18.945 0.245 19.156

Production Wells 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells

Total 25.039 0.324 5.199 11.169 0.144 61.240 5.080 0.066 300.605 41.288 0.533 367.044

Pipeline 8.229 0.099 2.347 6.748 0.081 26.645 2.230 0.027 39.305 17.207 0.208 68.297

Platforms 19.847 0.239 3.136 3.308 0.040 20.277 23.155 0.279 23.413

Production Wells 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

Development Wells

Total 28.768 0.347 5.829 12.130 0.146 68.707 5.680 0.069 355.805 46.578 0.562 430.341

Pipeline 11.892 0.114 3.357 9.582 0.092 37.902 3.156 0.030 55.514 24.630 0.235 96.773

Platforms 23.456 0.224 3.706 3.909 0.037 23.964 27.365 0.262 27.670

Production Wells 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 36.128 0.345 7.453 15.831 0.151 86.436 7.056 0.067 414.314 59.015 0.564 508.203

Pipeline 11.892 0.113 3.357 9.582 0.091 37.902 3.156 0.030 55.514 24.630 0.235 96.773

Platforms 26.463 0.253 4.181 4.411 0.042 27.036 30.874 0.295 31.218

Production Wells 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 39.235 0.374 7.978 16.632 0.159 92.659 7.556 0.072 460.314 63.423 0.605 560.951

Pipeline 11.892 0.121 3.357 9.582 0.097 37.902 3.156 0.032 55.514 24.630 0.250 96.773

Platforms 29.470 0.299 4.656 4.912 0.050 30.109 34.382 0.349 34.765

Production Wells 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 42.342 0.429 8.503 17.433 0.177 98.881 8.056 0.082 506.314 67.832 0.688 613.698

Pipeline 11.892 0.133 3.357 9.582 0.107 37.902 3.156 0.035 55.514 24.630 0.276 96.773

Platforms 30.974 0.347 4.894 5.162 0.058 31.645 36.136 0.405 36.539

Production Wells 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 43.896 0.492 8.766 17.834 0.200 101.992 8.306 0.093 529.314 70.036 0.785 640.072

Pipeline 11.892 0.146 3.357 9.582 0.118 37.902 3.156 0.039 55.514 24.630 0.303 96.773

Platforms 30.974 0.381 4.894 5.162 0.063 31.645 36.136 0.444 36.539

Production Wells 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 43.896 0.539 8.766 17.834 0.219 101.992 8.306 0.102 529.314 70.036 0.860 640.072

2023 81.4

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2016 67.4

2014 56.2

2015 64.2

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 11.892 0.159 3.357 9.582 0.128 37.902 3.156 0.042 55.514 24.630 0.329 96.773

Platforms 30.974 0.414 4.894 5.162 0.069 31.645 36.136 0.483 36.539

Production Wells 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 43.896 0.587 8.766 17.834 0.238 101.992 8.306 0.111 529.314 70.036 0.936 640.072

Pipeline 10.877 0.174 3.060 8.712 0.139 34.483 2.866 0.046 50.381 22.456 0.359 87.924

Platforms 27.516 0.440 4.347 4.586 0.073 28.112 32.102 0.514 32.459

Production Wells 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 39.308 0.629 7.865 16.043 0.257 91.417 7.441 0.119 471.281 62.792 1.005 570.563

Pipeline 10.877 0.201 3.060 8.712 0.161 34.483 2.866 0.053 50.381 22.456 0.415 87.924

Platforms 27.516 0.509 4.347 4.586 0.085 28.112 32.102 0.593 32.459

Production Wells 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 39.308 0.727 7.865 16.043 0.297 91.417 7.441 0.138 471.281 62.792 1.161 570.563

Pipeline 9.863 0.221 2.763 7.842 0.176 31.063 2.577 0.058 45.249 20.282 0.455 79.075

Platforms 24.057 0.539 3.801 4.010 0.090 24.579 28.067 0.629 28.380

Production Wells 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 34.720 0.778 6.964 14.252 0.320 80.842 6.577 0.147 413.249 55.549 1.245 501.055

Pipeline 8.341 0.226 2.317 6.538 0.177 25.934 2.142 0.058 37.551 17.020 0.461 65.801

Platforms 20.599 0.558 3.255 3.433 0.093 21.045 24.032 0.651 24.300

Production Wells 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.625 0.803 5.914 12.026 0.326 68.557 5.567 0.151 352.651 47.218 1.280 427.122

Pipeline 8.341 0.259 2.317 6.538 0.203 25.934 2.142 0.067 37.551 17.020 0.529 65.801

Platforms 20.599 0.640 3.255 3.433 0.107 21.045 24.032 0.746 24.300

Production Wells 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.625 0.920 5.914 12.026 0.373 68.557 5.567 0.173 352.651 47.218 1.466 427.122

Pipeline 6.312 0.245 1.722 4.799 0.186 19.095 1.562 0.061 27.286 12.672 0.491 48.103

Platforms 17.141 0.664 2.708 2.857 0.111 17.512 19.998 0.775 20.220

Production Wells 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.022 0.931 4.715 9.365 0.363 54.562 4.412 0.171 289.486 37.800 1.465 348.764

Pipeline 6.312 0.279 1.486 4.799 0.212 17.097 1.562 0.069 25.662 12.672 0.561 44.245

Platforms 17.141 0.758 2.708 2.857 0.126 17.512 19.998 0.885 20.220

Production Wells 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.022 1.063 4.480 9.365 0.414 52.564 4.412 0.195 287.862 37.800 1.673 344.906

Pipeline 6.312 0.320 1.722 4.799 0.244 19.095 1.562 0.079 27.286 12.672 0.643 48.103

Platforms 17.141 0.870 2.708 2.857 0.145 17.512 19.998 1.015 20.220

Production Wells 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.022 1.219 4.715 9.365 0.475 54.562 4.412 0.224 289.486 37.800 1.919 348.764

Pipeline 6.312 0.367 1.722 4.799 0.279 19.095 1.562 0.091 27.286 12.672 0.737 48.103

Platforms 17.141 0.997 2.708 2.857 0.166 17.512 19.998 1.163 20.220

Production Wells 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.022 1.397 4.715 9.365 0.545 54.562 4.412 0.257 289.486 37.800 2.198 348.764

2033 17.2

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2024 74.8

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 6.312 0.418 1.722 4.799 0.318 19.095 1.562 0.103 27.286 12.672 0.839 48.103

Platforms 17.141 1.135 2.708 2.857 0.189 17.512 19.998 1.324 20.220

Production Wells 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.022 1.591 4.715 9.365 0.620 54.562 4.412 0.292 289.486 37.800 2.503 348.764

Pipeline 6.312 0.478 1.722 4.799 0.364 19.095 1.562 0.118 27.286 12.672 0.960 48.103

Platforms 17.141 1.299 2.708 2.857 0.216 17.512 19.998 1.515 20.220

Production Wells 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.022 1.820 4.715 9.365 0.710 54.562 4.412 0.334 289.486 37.800 2.864 348.764

Pipeline 3.663 0.441 1.010 2.834 0.341 11.257 0.926 0.112 16.209 7.423 0.894 28.476

Platforms 10.224 1.232 1.615 1.704 0.205 10.446 11.928 1.437 12.061

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 14.227 1.714 2.795 5.558 0.670 32.413 2.626 0.316 172.609 22.412 2.700 207.818

Pipeline 3.663 0.502 1.010 2.834 0.388 11.257 0.926 0.127 16.209 7.423 1.017 28.476

Platforms 10.224 1.401 1.615 1.704 0.233 10.446 11.928 1.634 12.061

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 14.227 1.949 2.795 5.558 0.761 32.413 2.626 0.360 172.609 22.412 3.070 207.818

Pipeline 3.663 0.564 1.010 2.834 0.436 11.257 0.926 0.142 16.209 7.423 1.142 28.476

Platforms 10.224 1.573 1.615 1.704 0.262 10.446 11.928 1.835 12.061

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 14.227 2.189 2.795 5.558 0.855 32.413 2.626 0.404 172.609 22.412 3.448 207.818

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2034 15.1

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.12

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.06 0.032 0.19 1.990 0.300 25.80 0.553 27.822

2008 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

2009 0.52 0.108 0.29 2.745 0.381 36.96 1.198 39.813

2010 10.9 3.12 0.287 0.683 1.66 0.152 10.271 1.071 0.098 77.99 5.853 0.537 88.947

2011 19.9 5.05 0.254 0.980 1.91 0.096 11.508 0.940 0.047 64.93 7.905 0.397 77.421

2012 30.8 8.18 0.266 1.666 3.59 0.116 21.957 2.005 0.065 138.66 13.774 0.447 162.288

2013 50.7 12.82 0.253 2.641 5.71 0.113 33.540 3.024 0.060 205.20 21.557 0.425 241.384

2014 56.2 14.79 0.263 2.957 6.08 0.108 36.003 3.127 0.056 217.88 24.000 0.427 256.843

2015 64.2 18.38 0.286 3.817 8.24 0.128 46.131 3.950 0.062 246.89 30.569 0.476 296.835

2016 67.4 20.34 0.302 4.129 8.59 0.127 48.363 3.969 0.059 246.73 32.897 0.488 299.220

2017 77.4 25.04 0.324 5.199 11.17 0.144 61.240 5.080 0.066 300.60 41.288 0.533 367.044

2018 82.9 28.77 0.347 5.829 12.13 0.146 68.707 5.680 0.069 355.80 46.578 0.562 430.341

2019 104.6 36.13 0.345 7.453 15.83 0.151 86.436 7.056 0.067 414.31 59.015 0.564 508.203

2020 104.8 39.23 0.374 7.978 16.63 0.159 92.659 7.556 0.072 460.31 63.423 0.605 560.951

2021 98.6 42.34 0.429 8.503 17.43 0.177 98.881 8.056 0.082 506.31 67.832 0.688 613.698

2022 89.2 43.90 0.492 8.766 17.83 0.200 101.992 8.306 0.093 529.31 70.036 0.785 640.072

2023 81.4 43.90 0.539 8.766 17.83 0.219 101.992 8.306 0.102 529.31 70.036 0.860 640.072

2024 74.8 43.90 0.587 8.766 17.83 0.238 101.992 8.306 0.111 529.31 70.036 0.936 640.072

2025 62.5 39.31 0.629 7.865 16.04 0.257 91.417 7.441 0.119 471.28 62.792 1.005 570.563

2026 54.1 39.31 0.727 7.865 16.04 0.297 91.417 7.441 0.138 471.28 62.792 1.161 570.563

2027 44.6 34.72 0.778 6.964 14.25 0.320 80.842 6.577 0.147 413.25 55.549 1.245 501.055

2028 36.9 29.62 0.803 5.914 12.03 0.326 68.557 5.567 0.151 352.65 47.218 1.280 427.122

2029 32.2 29.62 0.920 5.914 12.03 0.373 68.557 5.567 0.173 352.65 47.218 1.466 427.122

2030 25.8 24.02 0.931 4.715 9.37 0.363 54.562 4.412 0.171 289.49 37.800 1.465 348.764

2031 22.6 24.02 1.063 4.480 9.37 0.414 52.564 4.412 0.195 287.86 37.800 1.673 344.906

2032 19.7 24.02 1.219 4.715 9.37 0.475 54.562 4.412 0.224 289.49 37.800 1.919 348.764

2033 17.2 24.02 1.397 4.715 9.37 0.545 54.562 4.412 0.257 289.49 37.800 2.198 348.764

2034 15.1 24.02 1.591 4.715 9.37 0.620 54.562 4.412 0.292 289.49 37.800 2.503 348.764

2035 13.2 24.02 1.820 4.715 9.37 0.710 54.562 4.412 0.334 289.49 37.800 2.864 348.764

2036 8.3 14.23 1.714 2.795 5.56 0.670 32.413 2.626 0.316 172.61 22.412 2.700 207.818

2037 7.3 14.23 1.949 2.795 5.56 0.761 32.413 2.626 0.360 172.61 22.412 3.070 207.818

2038 6.5 14.23 2.189 2.795 5.56 0.855 32.413 2.626 0.404 172.61 22.412 3.448 207.818

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.12 10/31/2002
Table 4.4A.13

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

2009 0.073 0.036 0.218 2.285 0.381 36.960 0.672 39.281

2010 10.9 0.154 0.014 0.077 0.463 0.042 4.855 0.781 0.072 72.860 1.398 0.128 77.792

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.290 0.009 0.145 0.870 0.028 9.127 1.425 0.046 128.400 2.585 0.084 137.672

2013 50.7 0.397 0.008 0.199 1.192 0.024 12.508 2.009 0.040 187.240 3.598 0.071 199.947

2014 56.2 0.412 0.007 0.206 1.236 0.022 12.974 2.112 0.038 199.920 3.760 0.067 213.100

2015 64.2 0.468 0.007 0.234 1.403 0.022 14.727 2.356 0.037 218.660 4.227 0.066 233.621

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.572 0.007 0.286 1.715 0.022 18.005 2.850 0.037 261.300 5.137 0.066 279.591

2018 82.9 0.692 0.008 0.346 2.075 0.025 21.785 3.450 0.042 316.500 6.217 0.075 338.631

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsT.4.4A.13 10/31/2002
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Non Arctic

50

7570656055504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic

3.63.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Non Arctic

0

50

650600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.4 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Non Arctic - P/L

50

70656055504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.5 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic - P/L

3.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.6 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Non Arctic - P/L

0

50

650600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.7 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Non Arctic - Platforms

50

70656055504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.8 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic - Platforms

3.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4.9 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Non Arctic - Platforms

0

50

650600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.10 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Non Arctic - Wells

50

70656055504540353025201510

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4.11 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic - Wells

3.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.12 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Non Arctic - Wells

0

50

650600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.13 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency 

50

7570656055504540353025201510

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.14 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

3.63.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
C4_4A Sale All Non Arctic.xlsF.4.4A.15 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

50

650600550500450400350300250200150100

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Table 4.5.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010

C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.1 10/29/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.5.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.1 10/29/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.5.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 01999 0 3.394 0.197 8.302 3.213 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.8552000 0 3.394 0.197 8.302 3.213 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.8552001 0 3.394 0.197 8.302 3.213 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.8552002 101 3.394 0.034 0.197 8.302 0.082 3.213 11.696 0.116 3.410 7.154 0.071 28.129 2.334 0.023 41.316 21.183 0.210 72.8552003 135 3.394 0.025 0.197 8.302 0.061 3.213 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.8552004 135 3.394 0.025 0.197 8.302 0.061 3.213 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.8552005 135 3.394 0.025 0.197 8.302 0.061 3.213 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.8552006 135 3.394 0.025 0.197 8.302 0.061 3.213 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.8552007 135 3.394 0.025 0.197 8.302 0.061 3.213 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.8552008 119 3.394 0.029 0.197 8.302 0.070 3.213 11.696 0.098 3.410 7.154 0.060 28.129 2.334 0.020 41.316 21.183 0.178 72.8552009 103 3.394 0.033 0.197 8.302 0.081 3.213 11.696 0.114 3.410 7.154 0.069 28.129 2.334 0.023 41.316 21.183 0.206 72.8552010 92 3.394 0.037 0.197 8.302 0.090 3.213 11.696 0.127 3.410 7.154 0.078 28.129 2.334 0.025 41.316 21.183 0.230 72.855

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.2 10/29/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.5.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 2 8 1.163 0.931 0.15 0.227 0.182 1.12

Total 2 8 0.931 0.15 0.182 1.12

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 4 48 1.163 5.584 0.88 0.227 1.091 6.69

Total 4 48 5.584 0.88 1.091 6.69

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 108 1.163 12.564 1.99 0.227 2.456 15.05

Total 6 108 12.564 1.99 2.456 15.05

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 188 1.163 21.871 3.46 0.227 4.275 26.21

Total 6 188 21.871 3.46 4.275 26.21

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 6 214 1.163 24.896 3.93 0.227 4.866 29.83

Total 6 214 24.896 3.93 4.866 29.83

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.3 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0 0.931 0.147 0.182 1.115 1.113 1.262

2001 0 5.584 0.882 1.091 6.691 6.676 7.573

2002 101 12.564 0.124 1.985 2.456 0.024 15.054 15.020 0.149 17.039

2003 135 21.871 0.162 3.456 4.275 0.032 26.205 26.146 0.194 29.661

2004 135 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

2005 135 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

2006 135 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

2007 135 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

2008 119 24.896 0.209 3.934 4.866 0.041 29.829 29.762 0.250 33.763

2009 103 24.896 0.242 3.934 4.866 0.047 29.829 29.762 0.289 33.763

2010 92 24.896 0.271 3.934 4.866 0.053 29.829 29.762 0.324 33.763

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.4 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 8 0.500 0.040 0.02 3.500 0.280 1.26 1.500 0.120 2.40 1.000 0.080 16.00

Total 8 0.040 0.02 0.280 1.26 0.120 2.40 0.080 16.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 48 0.500 0.240 0.12 3.500 1.680 7.56 1.500 0.720 14.40 1.000 0.480 96.00

Total 48 0.240 0.12 1.680 7.56 0.720 14.40 0.480 96.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 108 0.500 0.540 0.27 3.500 3.780 17.01 1.500 1.620 32.40 1.000 1.080 216.00

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 188 0.500 0.940 0.47 3.500 6.580 29.61 1.500 2.820 56.40 1.000 1.880 376.00

Total 188 0.940 0.47 6.580 29.61 2.820 56.40 1.880 376.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.5 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0 0.040 0.020 0.120 1.260 0.200 18.400 0.360 19.680

2001 0 0.240 0.120 0.720 7.560 1.200 110.400 2.160 118.080

2002 101 0.540 0.005 0.270 1.620 0.016 17.010 2.700 0.027 248.400 4.860 0.048 265.680

2003 135 0.940 0.007 0.470 2.820 0.021 29.610 4.700 0.035 432.400 8.460 0.063 462.480

2004 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2005 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2006 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2007 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2008 119 1.070 0.009 0.535 3.210 0.027 33.705 5.350 0.045 492.200 9.630 0.081 526.440

2009 103 1.070 0.010 0.535 3.210 0.031 33.705 5.350 0.052 492.200 9.630 0.093 526.440

2010 92 1.070 0.012 0.535 3.210 0.035 33.705 5.350 0.058 492.200 9.630 0.105 526.440

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.6 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2001

Year

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

1999

2000

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.7 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 101

2003 135

2004 135

2005 135

2006 135

2007 135

2008 119

2009 103

2010 92

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.8 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.9 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 101

2003 135

2004 135

2005 135

2006 135

2007 135

2008 119

2009 103

2010 92

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.10 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Pipeline 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Platforms 0.931 0.147 0.182 1.115 1.113 1.262

Production Wells 0.040 0.020 0.120 1.260 0.200 18.400 0.360 19.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 12.666 3.577 7.456 30.504 2.534 59.716 22.656 93.797

Pipeline 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Platforms 5.584 0.882 1.091 6.691 6.676 7.573

Production Wells 0.240 0.120 0.720 7.560 1.200 110.400 2.160 118.080

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.520 4.412 8.965 42.380 3.534 151.716 30.019 198.508

Pipeline 11.696 0.116 3.410 7.154 0.071 28.129 2.334 0.023 41.316 21.183 0.210 72.855

Platforms 12.564 0.124 1.985 2.456 0.024 15.054 15.020 0.149 17.039

Production Wells 0.540 0.005 0.270 1.620 0.016 17.010 2.700 0.027 248.400 4.860 0.048 265.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.800 0.246 5.665 11.230 0.111 60.193 5.034 0.050 289.716 41.064 0.407 355.574

Pipeline 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.855

Platforms 21.871 0.162 3.456 4.275 0.032 26.205 26.146 0.194 29.661

Production Wells 0.940 0.007 0.470 2.820 0.021 29.610 4.700 0.035 432.400 8.460 0.063 462.480

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 34.507 0.256 7.335 14.249 0.106 83.944 7.034 0.052 473.716 55.790 0.413 564.996

Pipeline 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.279 7.878 15.230 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.516 60.576 0.449 633.058

Pipeline 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.279 7.878 15.230 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.516 60.576 0.449 633.058

Pipeline 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.279 7.878 15.230 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.516 60.576 0.449 633.058

Pipeline 11.696 0.087 3.410 7.154 0.053 28.129 2.334 0.017 41.316 21.183 0.157 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.184 3.934 4.866 0.036 29.829 29.762 0.220 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.279 7.878 15.230 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.516 60.576 0.449 633.058

2006 135.0

2007 135.0

2005

2004 135.0

135.0

2002 101.0

2003 135.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.11 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 11.696 0.098 3.410 7.154 0.060 28.129 2.334 0.020 41.316 21.183 0.178 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.209 3.934 4.866 0.041 29.829 29.762 0.250 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.009 0.535 3.210 0.027 33.705 5.350 0.045 492.200 9.630 0.081 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.316 7.878 15.230 0.128 91.663 7.684 0.065 533.516 60.576 0.509 633.058

Pipeline 11.696 0.114 3.410 7.154 0.069 28.129 2.334 0.023 41.316 21.183 0.206 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.242 3.934 4.866 0.047 29.829 29.762 0.289 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.010 0.535 3.210 0.031 33.705 5.350 0.052 492.200 9.630 0.093 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.366 7.878 15.230 0.148 91.663 7.684 0.075 533.516 60.576 0.588 633.058

Pipeline 11.696 0.127 3.410 7.154 0.078 28.129 2.334 0.025 41.316 21.183 0.230 72.855

Platforms 24.896 0.271 3.934 4.866 0.053 29.829 29.762 0.324 33.763

Production Wells 1.070 0.012 0.535 3.210 0.035 33.705 5.350 0.058 492.200 9.630 0.105 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 37.662 0.409 7.878 15.230 0.166 91.663 7.684 0.084 533.516 60.576 0.658 633.058

2010 92.0

2008 119.0

2009 103.0

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.11 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

1999 0 11.70 3.410 7.15 28.129 2.334 41.32 21.183 72.855

2000 0 12.67 3.577 7.46 30.504 2.534 59.72 22.656 93.797

2001 0 17.52 4.412 8.97 42.380 3.534 151.72 30.019 198.508

2002 101.0 24.80 0.246 5.665 11.23 0.111 60.193 5.034 0.050 289.72 41.064 0.407 355.574

2003 135.0 34.51 0.256 7.335 14.25 0.106 83.944 7.034 0.052 473.72 55.790 0.413 564.996

2004 135.0 37.66 0.279 7.878 15.23 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.52 60.576 0.449 633.058

2005 135.0 37.66 0.279 7.878 15.23 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.52 60.576 0.449 633.058

2006 135.0 37.66 0.279 7.878 15.23 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.52 60.576 0.449 633.058

2007 135.0 37.66 0.279 7.878 15.23 0.113 91.663 7.684 0.057 533.52 60.576 0.449 633.058

2008 119.0 37.66 0.316 7.878 15.23 0.128 91.663 7.684 0.065 533.52 60.576 0.509 633.058

2009 103.0 37.66 0.366 7.878 15.23 0.148 91.663 7.684 0.075 533.52 60.576 0.588 633.058

2010 92.0 37.66 0.409 7.878 15.23 0.166 91.663 7.684 0.084 533.52 60.576 0.658 633.058

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.12 10/29/2002
Table 4.5.14

Chukchi Sea Base Case 2010 - Monte Carlo Results

Base Case

Year

2010

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Mean = 44.70 0.486 9.06 20.18 0.219 121.98 7.70 0.084 533.85

Std Deviation = 11.18 0.122 1.78 2.44 0.026 14.43 0.26 0.003 4.57

Variance = 125.08 0.015 3.16 5.94 0.001 208.23 0.07 0.000 20.88

Skewness = 0.44 0.440 0.44 0.26 0.264 0.29 0.21 0.208 0.21

Kurtosis = 2.54 2.538 2.55 2.76 2.760 2.75 2.95 2.951 2.95

Mode = 41.25 0.448 7.82 23.87 0.208 126.67 7.46 0.081 530.83

Minimum = 18.57 0.202 4.98 13.25 0.144 80.22 6.89 0.075 519.38

5% Perc = 28.67 0.312 6.49 16.44 0.179 100.13 7.30 0.079 526.67

10% Perc = 31.12 0.338 6.91 17.11 0.186 103.85 7.37 0.080 528.01

15% Perc = 33.00 0.359 7.22 17.59 0.191 106.56 7.43 0.081 529.07

20% Perc = 34.60 0.376 7.46 18.04 0.196 109.03 7.48 0.081 529.89

25% Perc = 36.02 0.392 7.68 18.39 0.200 111.31 7.52 0.082 530.69

30% Perc = 37.50 0.408 7.92 18.76 0.204 113.37 7.56 0.082 531.29

35% Perc = 38.79 0.422 8.14 19.09 0.208 115.54 7.59 0.083 531.89

40% Perc = 40.29 0.438 8.35 19.42 0.211 117.35 7.62 0.083 532.46

45% Perc = 41.92 0.456 8.61 19.73 0.214 119.23 7.66 0.083 533.13

50% Perc = 43.25 0.470 8.83 20.03 0.218 121.18 7.69 0.084 533.68

55% Perc = 44.75 0.486 9.08 20.37 0.221 123.08 7.72 0.084 534.23

60% Perc = 46.47 0.505 9.35 20.71 0.225 125.10 7.76 0.084 534.89

65% Perc = 48.17 0.524 9.61 21.06 0.229 127.03 7.80 0.085 535.59

70% Perc = 50.30 0.547 9.94 21.42 0.233 129.34 7.84 0.085 536.21

75% Perc = 52.37 0.569 10.27 21.80 0.237 131.56 7.87 0.086 536.88

80% Perc = 54.79 0.596 10.65 22.29 0.242 134.19 7.92 0.086 537.71

85% Perc = 57.58 0.626 11.08 22.81 0.248 137.72 7.97 0.087 538.59

90% Perc = 60.87 0.662 11.66 23.51 0.255 141.74 8.04 0.087 539.86

95% Perc = 65.06 0.707 12.29 24.35 0.265 146.80 8.14 0.088 541.57

Maximum = 79.59 0.865 14.69 28.67 0.312 174.27 8.67 0.094 550.90

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.13 10/29/2002
C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.1 10/29/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency

50

656055504540353025201510

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.2 10/29/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.3 10/29/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Index

0

50

650600550500450400350300250200150100

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Figure 4.5.13

 Spill Frequency CDF Chukchi Base Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF Chukchi Base Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Chukchi Base Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.4 10/29/2002
Table 4.6.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 1.367 3.095 3.514 1.081Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 1.170 2.765 2.714 0.860Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 0.992 2.479 1.957 0.652TotalShallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334Shallow 1.880 3.298 2.636 0.710 5 1.367 0.110 0.01 3.095 0.249 0.10 3.514 0.283 1.11 1.081 0.087Medium 1.697 2.973 1.812 0.478 60 1.170 1.130 0.07 2.765 2.669 1.03 2.714 2.620 10.30 0.860 0.830Deep 1.540 2.696 1.015 0.254 135 0.992 2.154 0.12 2.479 5.384 2.08 1.957 4.251 16.72 0.652 1.417Total 200 3.394 0.20 8.302 3.21 7.154 28.13 2.334

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Large Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.6.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

1.54

14.6925.0841.32

C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.6.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 01999 02000 0 3.394 0.197 8.302 3.213 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.8552001 0 3.394 0.197 8.302 3.213 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.8552002 0 3.394 0.197 8.302 3.213 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.8552003 223 3.394 0.015 0.197 8.302 0.037 3.213 11.696 0.052 3.410 7.154 0.032 28.129 2.334 0.010 41.316 21.183 0.095 72.8552004 297 3.394 0.011 0.197 8.302 0.028 3.213 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.8552005 297 3.394 0.011 0.197 8.302 0.028 3.213 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.8552006 297 3.394 0.011 0.197 8.302 0.028 3.213 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.8552007 297 3.394 0.011 0.197 8.302 0.028 3.213 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.8552008 297 3.394 0.011 0.197 8.302 0.028 3.213 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.8552009 262 3.394 0.013 0.197 8.302 0.032 3.213 11.696 0.045 3.410 7.154 0.027 28.129 2.334 0.009 41.316 21.183 0.081 72.8552010 227 3.394 0.015 0.197 8.302 0.037 3.213 11.696 0.052 3.410 7.154 0.032 28.129 2.334 0.010 41.316 21.183 0.093 72.855

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.6.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 1.163 0.227

Total

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 2 1.163 0.227

Total 2

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 8 50 1.163 5.817 0.92 0.227 1.137 6.97

Total 8 50 5.817 0.92 1.137 6.97

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 130 1.163 15.124 2.39 0.227 2.956 18.12

Total 12 130 15.124 2.39 2.956 18.12

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 270 1.163 31.411 4.96 0.227 6.139 37.63

Total 12 270 31.411 4.96 6.139 37.63

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 410 1.163 47.698 7.54 0.227 9.323 57.15

Total 12 410 47.698 7.54 9.323 57.15

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 482 1.163 56.075 8.86 0.227 10.960 67.19

Total 12 482 56.075 8.86 10.960 67.19

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 482 1.163 56.075 8.86 0.227 10.960 67.19

Total 12 482 56.075 8.86 10.960 67.19

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 482 1.163 56.075 8.86 0.227 10.960 67.19

Total 12 482 56.075 8.86 10.960 67.19

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 482 1.163 56.075 8.86 0.227 10.960 67.19

Total 12 482 56.075 8.86 10.960 67.19

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 482 1.163 56.075 8.86 0.227 10.960 67.19

Total 12 482 56.075 8.86 10.960 67.19

Shallow 0.964 0.192

Medium 1.044 0.206

Deep 12 482 1.163 56.075 8.86 0.227 10.960 67.19

Total 12 482 56.075 8.86 10.960 67.19

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 5.817 0.919 1.137 6.969 6.954 7.889

2002 0 15.124 2.390 2.956 18.121 18.080 20.510

2003 223 31.411 0.141 4.963 6.139 0.028 37.635 37.551 0.168 42.598

2004 297 47.698 0.161 7.536 9.323 0.031 57.149 57.021 0.192 64.686

2005 297 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

2006 297 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

2007 297 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

2008 297 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

2009 262 56.075 0.214 8.860 10.960 0.042 67.185 67.035 0.256 76.045

2010 227 56.075 0.247 8.860 10.960 0.048 67.185 67.035 0.295 76.045

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 50 0.500 0.250 0.13 3.500 1.750 7.88 1.500 0.750 15.00 1.000 0.500 100.00

Total 50 0.250 0.13 1.750 7.88 0.750 15.00 0.500 100.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 130 0.500 0.650 0.33 3.500 4.550 20.48 1.500 1.950 39.00 1.000 1.300 260.00

Total 130 0.650 0.33 4.550 20.48 1.950 39.00 1.300 260.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 270 0.500 1.350 0.68 3.500 9.450 42.53 1.500 4.050 81.00 1.000 2.700 540.00

Total 270 1.350 0.68 9.450 42.53 4.050 81.00 2.700 540.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 410 0.500 2.050 1.03 3.500 14.350 64.58 1.500 6.150 123.00 1.000 4.100 820.00

Total 410 2.050 1.03 14.350 64.58 6.150 123.00 4.100 820.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

2002 0 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

2003 223 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

2004 297 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

2005 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2006 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2007 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2008 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2009 262 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

2010 227 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3 3.160 0.095 0.05 22.110 0.663 2.98 9.500 0.285 5.70 5.500 0.165 33.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2002

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

1999

2000

2001

Year

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

1999 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2000 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

1999 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.108 0.054 0.324 3.393 0.528 47.280 0.960 50.727

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.076 0.038 0.229 2.399 0.378 34.380 0.683 36.817

Pipeline 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 11.759 3.441 7.344 30.119 2.634 67.116 21.737 100.677

Pipeline 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Platforms 5.817 0.919 1.137 6.969 6.954 7.889

Production Wells 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.763 4.454 9.041 42.974 3.584 156.316 30.387 203.744

Pipeline 11.696 3.410 7.154 28.129 2.334 41.316 21.183 72.855

Platforms 15.124 2.390 2.956 18.121 18.080 20.510

Production Wells 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 27.470 6.124 12.060 66.725 5.584 340.316 45.113 413.165

Pipeline 11.696 0.052 3.410 7.154 0.032 28.129 2.334 0.010 41.316 21.183 0.095 72.855

Platforms 31.411 0.141 4.963 6.139 0.028 37.635 37.551 0.168 42.598

Production Wells 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 44.457 0.199 9.048 17.343 0.078 108.289 9.084 0.041 662.316 70.884 0.318 779.653

Pipeline 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.855

Platforms 47.698 0.161 7.536 9.323 0.031 57.149 57.021 0.192 64.686

Production Wells 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 61.444 0.207 11.971 22.627 0.076 149.854 12.584 0.042 984.316 96.654 0.325 1146.141

Pipeline 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.855

Platforms 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.180 0.236 13.475 25.344 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.916 109.908 0.370 1334.620

Pipeline 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.855

Platforms 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.180 0.236 13.475 25.344 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.916 109.908 0.370 1334.620

Pipeline 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.855

Platforms 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.180 0.236 13.475 25.344 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.916 109.908 0.370 1334.620

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223.0

2005

2004 297.0

297.0

2006 297.0

2007 297.0

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 11.696 0.039 3.410 7.154 0.024 28.129 2.334 0.008 41.316 21.183 0.071 72.855

Platforms 56.075 0.189 8.860 10.960 0.037 67.185 67.035 0.226 76.045

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.180 0.236 13.475 25.344 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.916 109.908 0.370 1334.620

Pipeline 11.696 0.045 3.410 7.154 0.027 28.129 2.334 0.009 41.316 21.183 0.081 72.855

Platforms 56.075 0.214 8.860 10.960 0.042 67.185 67.035 0.256 76.045

Production Wells 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.180 0.268 13.475 25.344 0.097 171.230 14.384 0.055 1149.916 109.908 0.419 1334.620

Pipeline 11.696 0.052 3.410 7.154 0.032 28.129 2.334 0.010 41.316 21.183 0.093 72.855

Platforms 56.075 0.247 8.860 10.960 0.048 67.185 67.035 0.295 76.045

Production Wells 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 70.180 0.309 13.475 25.344 0.112 171.230 14.384 0.063 1149.916 109.908 0.484 1334.620

2010 227.0

2008 297.0

2009 262.0

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.11 0.054 0.32 3.393 0.528 47.28 0.960 50.727

1999 0 0.08 0.038 0.23 2.399 0.378 34.38 0.683 36.817

2000 0 11.76 3.441 7.34 30.119 2.634 67.12 21.737 100.677

2001 0 17.76 4.454 9.04 42.974 3.584 156.32 30.387 203.744

2002 0 27.47 6.124 12.06 66.725 5.584 340.32 45.113 413.165

2003 223 44.46 0.199 9.048 17.34 0.078 108.289 9.084 0.041 662.32 70.884 0.318 779.653

2004 297 61.44 0.207 11.971 22.63 0.076 149.854 12.584 0.042 984.32 96.654 0.325 1146.141

2005 297 70.18 0.236 13.475 25.34 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.92 109.908 0.370 1334.620

2006 297 70.18 0.236 13.475 25.34 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.92 109.908 0.370 1334.620

2007 297 70.18 0.236 13.475 25.34 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.92 109.908 0.370 1334.620

2008 297 70.18 0.236 13.475 25.34 0.085 171.230 14.384 0.048 1149.92 109.908 0.370 1334.620

2009 262 70.18 0.268 13.475 25.34 0.097 171.230 14.384 0.055 1149.92 109.908 0.419 1334.620

2010 227 70.18 0.309 13.475 25.34 0.112 171.230 14.384 0.063 1149.92 109.908 0.484 1334.620

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.12 10/31/2002
Table 4.6.14

Chukchi Sea High Case 2010 - Monte Carlo Results

High Case

Year

2010

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Mean = 88.00 0.388 16.36 36.48 0.161 239.47 14.40 0.063 1150.25

Std Deviation = 25.21 0.111 3.99 5.24 0.023 31.90 0.26 0.001 4.56

Variance = 635.37 0.012 15.88 27.51 0.001 1017.45 0.07 0.000 20.77

Skewness = 0.43 0.433 0.43 0.32 0.323 0.33 0.15 0.152 0.15

Kurtosis = 2.51 2.509 2.51 2.77 2.768 2.76 2.86 2.858 2.86

Mode = 67.50 0.446 16.59 32.36 0.143 235.62 14.06 0.062 1150.58

Minimum = 31.63 0.139 7.37 22.55 0.099 158.10 13.62 0.060 1136.31

5% Perc = 52.03 0.229 10.67 28.46 0.125 190.25 13.99 0.062 1142.98

10% Perc = 57.45 0.253 11.52 29.89 0.132 199.48 14.07 0.062 1144.42

15% Perc = 61.42 0.271 12.17 30.86 0.136 205.51 14.13 0.062 1145.41

20% Perc = 65.19 0.287 12.78 31.79 0.140 210.82 14.18 0.062 1146.31

25% Perc = 68.30 0.301 13.27 32.63 0.144 216.04 14.22 0.063 1147.08

30% Perc = 71.66 0.316 13.78 33.35 0.147 220.48 14.26 0.063 1147.66

35% Perc = 74.81 0.330 14.26 34.09 0.150 224.92 14.29 0.063 1148.31

40% Perc = 78.05 0.344 14.78 34.78 0.153 228.92 14.33 0.063 1148.90

45% Perc = 81.02 0.357 15.28 35.53 0.157 233.62 14.36 0.063 1149.57

50% Perc = 84.48 0.372 15.79 36.15 0.159 237.36 14.40 0.063 1150.15

55% Perc = 88.47 0.390 16.43 36.77 0.162 241.19 14.43 0.064 1150.72

60% Perc = 92.20 0.406 17.04 37.60 0.166 246.23 14.47 0.064 1151.37

65% Perc = 96.19 0.424 17.68 38.41 0.169 251.04 14.50 0.064 1151.99

70% Perc = 100.51 0.443 18.36 39.12 0.172 255.73 14.54 0.064 1152.63

75% Perc = 105.37 0.464 19.10 39.95 0.176 260.75 14.58 0.064 1153.36

80% Perc = 110.61 0.487 19.97 40.92 0.180 266.51 14.62 0.064 1154.07

85% Perc = 116.86 0.515 20.93 42.09 0.185 273.26 14.67 0.065 1155.01

90% Perc = 124.54 0.549 22.19 43.52 0.192 282.20 14.74 0.065 1156.23

95% Perc = 133.85 0.590 23.62 45.63 0.201 295.19 14.83 0.065 1157.90

Maximum = 163.02 0.718 28.12 54.94 0.242 354.85 15.28 0.067 1165.81

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.13 10/31/2002
C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency

0

80604020

120100

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.50.40.30.20.10.0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

900800700600500400300200100

14001300120011001000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Figure 4.6.13

 Spill Frequency CDF Chukchi High Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Freq. per bbl Prod CDF Chukchi High Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Huge Spill

Large Spill

Small and Medium Spills

 Spill Index CDF Chukchi High Case Year 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 3932

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.405 1.802TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.405 0.435 1.71 1.802 0.145Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.405 5.218 20.52 1.802 1.739Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.405 11.740 46.16 1.802 3.913Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 17.393 68.39 5.798

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills Large Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

P/L Dia >= 10" P/L Dia <10"

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010

C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.6A.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.6A.2

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 01999 02000 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.9822001 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.9822002 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.9822003 223 5.798 0.026 0.336 14.494 0.065 5.609 20.292 0.091 5.945 17.393 0.078 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.195 176.9822004 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.9822005 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.9822006 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.9822007 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.9822008 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.9822009 262 5.798 0.022 0.336 14.494 0.055 5.609 20.292 0.077 5.945 17.393 0.066 68.389 5.798 0.022 102.647 43.482 0.166 176.9822010 227 5.798 0.026 0.336 14.494 0.064 5.609 20.292 0.089 5.945 17.393 0.077 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.192 176.982

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group
Table 4.6A.3

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 2 1.504 0.251

Total 2

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 8 50 1.504 7.518 1.19 0.251 1.253 7.68

Total 8 50 7.518 1.19 1.253 7.68

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 130 1.504 19.547 3.09 0.251 3.258 19.97

Total 12 130 19.547 3.09 3.258 19.97

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 270 1.504 40.597 6.41 0.251 6.766 41.48

Total 12 270 40.597 6.41 6.766 41.48

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 410 1.504 61.647 9.74 0.251 10.274 62.98

Total 12 410 61.647 9.74 10.274 62.98

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.3 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.4

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 7.518 1.188 1.253 7.681 8.771 8.869

2002 0 19.547 3.088 3.258 19.970 22.804 23.058

2003 223 40.597 0.182 6.414 6.766 0.030 41.476 47.363 0.212 47.891

2004 297 61.647 0.208 9.740 10.274 0.035 62.983 71.921 0.242 72.723

2005 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2006 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2007 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2008 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2009 262 72.473 0.277 11.451 12.079 0.046 74.043 84.552 0.323 85.494

2010 227 72.473 0.319 11.451 12.079 0.053 74.043 84.552 0.372 85.494

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.4 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.5

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 50 0.500 0.250 0.13 3.500 1.750 7.88 1.500 0.750 15.00 1.000 0.500 100.00

Total 50 0.250 0.13 1.750 7.88 0.750 15.00 0.500 100.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 130 0.500 0.650 0.33 3.500 4.550 20.48 1.500 1.950 39.00 1.000 1.300 260.00

Total 130 0.650 0.33 4.550 20.48 1.950 39.00 1.300 260.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 270 0.500 1.350 0.68 3.500 9.450 42.53 1.500 4.050 81.00 1.000 2.700 540.00

Total 270 1.350 0.68 9.450 42.53 4.050 81.00 2.700 540.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 410 0.500 2.050 1.03 3.500 14.350 64.58 1.500 6.150 123.00 1.000 4.100 820.00

Total 410 2.050 1.03 14.350 64.58 6.150 123.00 4.100 820.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.5 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.6

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

2002 0 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

2003 223 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

2004 297 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

2005 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2006 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2007 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2008 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2009 262 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

2010 227 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.6 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.7

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3 3.160 0.095 0.05 22.110 0.663 2.98 9.500 0.285 5.70 5.500 0.165 33.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2001

Year

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

1999

2000

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.7 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.8

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

1999 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2000 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.8 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.9

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.9 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.10

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

1999 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.10 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.108 0.054 0.324 3.393 0.528 47.280 0.960 50.727

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.076 0.038 0.229 2.399 0.378 34.380 0.683 36.817

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 20.355 5.977 17.583 70.379 6.098 128.447 44.035 204.803

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms 7.518 1.188 1.253 7.681 8.771 8.869

Production Wells 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.060 7.258 19.396 83.945 7.048 217.647 54.503 308.850

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms 19.547 3.088 3.258 19.970 22.804 23.058

Production Wells 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.488 9.359 22.601 108.834 9.048 401.647 72.137 519.840

Pipeline 20.292 0.091 5.945 17.393 0.078 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.195 176.982

Platforms 40.597 0.182 6.414 6.766 0.030 41.476 47.363 0.212 47.891

Production Wells 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 62.238 0.279 13.035 28.209 0.126 152.390 12.548 0.056 723.647 102.995 0.462 889.072

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 61.647 0.208 9.740 10.274 0.035 62.983 71.921 0.242 72.723

Production Wells 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 83.989 0.283 16.711 33.817 0.114 195.947 16.048 0.054 1045.647 133.854 0.451 1258.304

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2006 297.0

2007 297.0

2005

2004 297.0

297.0

2002 0

2003 223.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.077 5.945 17.393 0.066 68.389 5.798 0.022 102.647 43.482 0.166 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.277 11.451 12.079 0.046 74.043 84.552 0.323 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.363 18.601 36.702 0.140 218.347 17.848 0.068 1211.247 149.724 0.571 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.089 5.945 17.393 0.077 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.192 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.319 11.451 12.079 0.053 74.043 84.552 0.372 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.419 18.601 36.702 0.162 218.347 17.848 0.079 1211.247 149.724 0.660 1448.195

2010 227.0

2008 297.0

2009 262.0

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.11 10/31/2002
Table 4.6A.12

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.11 0.054 0.32 3.393 0.528 47.28 0.960 50.727

1999 0 0.08 0.038 0.23 2.399 0.378 34.38 0.683 36.817

2000 0 20.35 5.977 17.58 70.379 6.098 128.45 44.035 204.803

2001 0 28.06 7.258 19.40 83.945 7.048 217.65 54.503 308.850

2002 0 40.49 9.359 22.60 108.834 9.048 401.65 72.137 519.840

2003 223 62.24 0.279 13.035 28.21 0.126 152.390 12.548 0.056 723.65 102.995 0.462 889.072

2004 297 83.99 0.283 16.711 33.82 0.114 195.947 16.048 0.054 1045.65 133.854 0.451 1258.304

2005 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2006 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2007 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2008 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2009 262 95.17 0.363 18.601 36.70 0.140 218.347 17.848 0.068 1211.25 149.724 0.571 1448.195

2010 227 95.17 0.419 18.601 36.70 0.162 218.347 17.848 0.079 1211.25 149.724 0.660 1448.195

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.12 10/31/2002
C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.1 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency - Non Arctic

0

908070605040302010

150140130120110100

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.2 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic

0.700.650.600.550.500.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.050.00

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.3 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index - Non Arctic

0

900800700600500400300200100

150014001300120011001000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.4 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency 

0

908070605040302010

150140130120110100

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1000 years Spill Frequency per 

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.5 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.700.650.600.550.500.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.050.00

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
C4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.6 10/31/2002 Bercha Group

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

900800700600500400300200100

150014001300120011001000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Table 5.1

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Year2016 

Year2019 

Year2024 

Year2020

Year2020 

Year2010 

Year2010 

Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale All Sale All Non Arctic Base Case High Case 

SM 9.97 10.17 9.84 29.98 43.90 37.66 70.18 

L 4.53 4.42 4.07 13.02 17.83 15.23 25.34 

H 2.39 2.34 2.21 6.93 8.31 7.68 14.38 

All 16.88 16.93 16.12 49.93 70.04 60.58 109.91 

SM 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.40 0.59 0.41 0.31 

L 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.17 0.11 

H 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.06 

All 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.67 0.94 0.66 0.48 

Maximum Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced (year varies) All 2.53 2.99 2.48 2.48 3.45 0.66 0.48 

SM 2 2 2 6 9 8 13 

L 28 27 26 81 102 92 171 

H 170 169 165 505 529 534 1150 

All 200 199 193 592 640 633 1335 

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Size

bbl x 1000

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Bercha Group C5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.1 
Table 5.2

Composition of Spill Indicators

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platforms Wells TO

15.55 25.11 9.27 49.93 21.18 67.03 21.69 10

31% 50% 19% 100% 19% 61% 20% 10

0.21 0.34 0.12 0.67 0.09 0.30 0.10 0

31% 50% 19% 100% 19% 61% 20% 10

56 29 507 592 73 76 1186 1

10% 5% 86% 100% 5% 6% 89% 10

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS Sale All - Year 2024 High Case - Year 2010

Bercha Group C5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.2 
Figure 5.1

Baufort Sea Sale All - 2024 year - Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

31%

50%

19%

P/L

Platforms

Wells

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

50%

31%

19%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.67

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

10% 5%

85%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 592

49.93

Bercha Group C5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.1 10/31/2002
Figure 5.2

Baufort Sea Sale All - 2024 year - Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

60%

26%

14%

SM L H

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

26%

60% 14%

SM L H 0.67

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

1%

14%

85%

SM L H

592

49.93

Bercha Group C5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.2 10/31/2002
Figure 5.3

Chukchi Sea High Case - 2010 year - Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

19%

61% 20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 109.9

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

19%

61% 20%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.48

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

6% 5%

89%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 1335

Bercha Group C5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.3 10/31/2002
Figure 5.4

Chukchi Sea High Case - 2010 year - Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000

64%

23%

13%

SM L H

109.9

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size X 1000

64%

23%

13%

SM L H

0.48

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill Size x 1000

1%

14%

85%

SM L H

1335

Bercha Group C5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.4 10/31/2002
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

C.ii

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

T.4.1.14 Monte Carlo Results - Sale 1 - Year 2016

F.4.1.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.1.13 CDF - Sale 1 - Year 2016

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 2

T.4.2.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

T.4.2.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

T.4.2.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

T.4.2.14 Monte Carlo Results - Sale 2 - Year 2019

F.4.2.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.2.13 CDF - Sale 2 - Year 2019

4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 3

T.4.3.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline

T.4.3.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.3.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

T.4.3.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

C.iii

T.4.3.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

T.4.3.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.3.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

T.4.3.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.3.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells

T.4.3.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.3.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

T.4.3.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

T.4.3.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

T.4.3.14 Monte Carlo Results - Sale 3 - Year 2024

F.4.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

F.4.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

F.4.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.3.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.3.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.3.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.3.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.3.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.3.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.3.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.3.13 CDF - Sale 3 - Year 2024

4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

T.4.4.14 Monte Carlo Results - All Sales - Year 2024

F.4.4.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.4.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4.13 CDF - All Sales - Year 2024

4.4A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

C.iv

T.4.4A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4A.13 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

F.4.4A.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4A.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.4A.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4A.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4A.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4A.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4A.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4A.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4A.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4A.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4A.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4A.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4A.13 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.14 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.15 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea Base Case

T.4.5.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline

T.4.5.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.5.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms

T.4.5.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.5.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells

T.4.5.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.5.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.5.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.5.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells

T.4.5.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.5.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Summary

T.4.5.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Annual Summary

T.4.5.13 Monte Carlo Results - Base Case - Year 2010

F.4.5.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency

F.4.5.2 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.5.3 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Index

F.4.5.4 CDF - Base Case- Year 2010

4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

C.v

T.4.6.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

T.4.6.13 Monte Carlo Results - High Case - Year 2010

F.4.6.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.6.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6.4 CDF - High Case- Year 2010

4.6A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6A.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6A.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.6A.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6A.4 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.5 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.6 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

T.5.2 Composition of Spill Indicators

F.5.1 Beaufort Sea Sale All Year 2024 Spill Indicators

F.5.2 Beaufort Sea Sale All Year 2024 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

F.5.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Year 2010 Spill Indicators

F.5.4 Chukchi Sea High Case Year 2010 Spill Indicators for Spill Size
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

D.i

APPENDIX D

EXPECTED VALUE CALCULATIONS AND RESULTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

0 TOC

T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

F.0 Flow Chart

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2A Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

T.1.3 Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.4 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.5 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

T.1.5A Historical Spills Data - Wells

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 FTA Input Rationalization - Pipeline

T.2.1A Monte Carlo Input - Pipeline

T.2.2 FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

T2.2A Monte Carlo Input - Platforms

T.2.3 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

T.2.4 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

T.2.5 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

T.2.6 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

T.2.7 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

T.2.8 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

T.2.9 Arctic Frequency - Wells

T.2.10 Average Spill Distribution

F.2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

F.2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

F.2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

F.2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

F.2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

T.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

T.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

T.3.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

T.3.5 Chukchi Sea Base Case 1998-2010

T.3.6 Chukchi Sea High Case 1998-2010

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 1

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

D.ii

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

F.4.1.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 2

T.4.2.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

T.4.2.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

T.4.2.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

F.4.2.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 3

T.4.3.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline

T.4.3.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.3.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

T.4.3.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.3.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

T.4.3.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.3.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

T.4.3.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

D.iii

T.4.3.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells

T.4.3.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.3.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

T.4.3.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

T.4.3.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

F.4.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

F.4.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

F.4.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.3.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.3.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.3.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.3.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.3.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.3.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.3.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

F.4.4.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.4.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

4.4A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

D.iv

T.4.4A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4A.13 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

F.4.4A.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4A.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.4A.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4A.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4A.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4A.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4A.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4A.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4A.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4A.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4A.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4A.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4A.13 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.14 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.15 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea Base Case

T.4.5.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline

T.4.5.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.5.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms

T.4.5.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.5.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells

T.4.5.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.5.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.5.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.5.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells

T.4.5.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.5.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Summary

T.4.5.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Annual Summary

F.4.5.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency

F.4.5.2 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.5.3 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Index

4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.6.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

4.6A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary
Alternative Oil Spill Estimators - FTM Final Report – P2010

09/10/02

D.v

T.4.6A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6A.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6A.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.6A.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6A.4 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.5 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.6 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

T.5.2 Composition of Spill Indicators

F.5.1 Beaufort Sea Sale All Year 2024 Spill Indicators

F.5.2 Beaufort Sea Sale All Year 2024 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

F.5.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Year 2010 Spill Indicators

F.5.4 Chukchi Sea High Case Year 2010 Spill Indicators for Spill Size
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

0 TOC

T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

F.0 Flow Chart

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.2A Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

T.1.3 Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.4 Distribution And Frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

T.1.5 Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

T.1.5A Historical Spills Data - Wells

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 FTA Input Rationalization - Pipeline

T.2.1A Input - Pipeline

T.2.2 FTA Input Rationalization - Platforms

T2.2A Input - Platforms

T.2.3 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Small Spills

T.2.4 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Medium Spills

T.2.5 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Large Spills

T.2.6 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - P/L - Huge Spills

T.2.7 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Small and Medium Spills

T.2.8 Arctic Spill Distribution and Frequency - Platforms - Large and Huge Spills

T.2.9 Arctic Frequency - Wells

T.2.10 Average Spill Distribution

F.2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spills

F.2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spills

F.2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spills

F.2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spills

F.2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spills

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

T.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

T.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

T.3.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

T.3.5 Chukchi Sea Base 1998-2010

T.3.6 Chukchi Sea High 1998-2010

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 1

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Annual Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 1 - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

F.4.1.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 2

T.4.2.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Summary

T.4.2.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Annual Summary

T.4.2.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 2 - Wells - Summary

F.4.2.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea Sale 3

T.4.3.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline

T.4.3.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.3.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms

T.4.3.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Platforms - Summary

T.4.3.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells

T.4.3.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.3.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells

T.4.3.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.3.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells

T.4.3.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.3.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Summary

T.4.3.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Annual Summary

T.4.3.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Sale 3 - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

F.4.3.1 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

F.4.3.2 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.3.3 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

F.4.3.4 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.3.5 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.3.6 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.3.7 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.3.8 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.3.9 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.3.10 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.3.11 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.3.12 Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

F.4.4.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

4.4A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Beaufort Sea All Sales

T.4.4A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline

T.4.4A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.4A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms

T.4.4A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Platforms - Summary

T.4.4A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells

T.4.4A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells

T.4.4A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells

T.4.4A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.4A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Summary

T.4.4A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Annual Summary

T.4.4A.13 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - All Sales - Wells - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

F.4.4A.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency

F.4.4A.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.4A.3 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index

F.4.4A.4 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.4A.5 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.4A.6 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - P/L

F.4.4A.7 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.4A.8 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.4A.9 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.4A.10 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.4A.11 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.4A.12 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index - Wells

F.4.4A.13 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.14 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.4A.15 Beaufort Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

4.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea Base Case

T.4.5.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline

T.4.5.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.5.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms

T.4.5.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.5.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells

T.4.5.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.5.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.5.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.5.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells

T.4.5.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.5.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Summary

T.4.5.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Base Case - Annual Summary

F.4.5.1 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency

F.4.5.2 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.5.3 Chukchi Sea Base Case Spill Index

4.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.6.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.6.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

4.6A Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea High Case

T.4.6A.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline

T.4.6A.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Pipeline - Summary

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
T.0 Appendix D Table of Contents

APPENDIX

D TITLE

T.4.6A.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms

T.4.6A.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Platforms - Summary

T.4.6A.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells

T.4.6A.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells

T.4.6A.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells

T.4.6A.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.6A.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Summary

T.4.6A.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - High Case - Annual Summary

F.4.6A.1 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency

F.4.6A.2 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

F.4.6A.3 Chukchi Sea High Case Spill Index

F.4.6A.4 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.5 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced Arctic and Non Arctic

F.4.6A.6 Chukchi Sea All Sales Spill Index Arctic and Non Arctic

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

T.5.2 Composition of Spill Indicators

F.5.1 Beaufort Sea All Sales Year 2024 Spill Indicators

F.5.2 Beaufort Sea All Sales Year 2024 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

F.5.3 Chukchi Sea High Case year 2010 Spill Indicators

F.5.4 Chukchi Sea High Case year 2010 Spill Indicators for Spill Size

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsTOC 11/1/2002
Figure T.0 Flow Chart

Fault Tree Analysis Hazard Scenarios 

Spill Size

Frequency and Cause Arctic Spill Frequency Annual 

Small Spill >=50<100 bbl Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

<10" Dia

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Medium Spill >=100<1000 bbl

Pipeline

Large Spill >=1000<10000 bblHuge Spill >= 10000 bbl

>=10" Dia

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 mDeep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 mLarge Spill Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Spill >=10000<150000 bblSpill >=150000 bbl

Development Well D.

Chukchi Sea

Base Case

Chukchi Sea

High Case

Chukchi Sea

High Case Non Artic

Beaufort Sea

All Sales

Production WellExploration Well D.

Beaufort Sea

All Sales Non Arctic

Facility

Historical Data Analysis

Platform

Beaufort Sea

Sale 2

Beaufort Sea

Sale 3

Beaufort Sea

Sale 1

Bercha Group D0 Appendix D TOC.xlsFlow Chart 
Table 1.1

Analysis of Historical Spills - P/L

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S M L H S

CORROSION 4 121 3 External 1 80 1 1

Internal 3 100 5000 414 2 1 2 

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 16 2563 7 

Anchor Impact 10 19833 65 50 300 900 323 15576 2000 800 1211 2422 6 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 1 3200 1 

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 4000 100 14423 4569 4533 1 3 1 1 

OPERATION IMPACT 4 3 1 3Rig Anchoring 1 50 1 1

Work Boat Anchoring 3 50 5100 50 2 1 2 

MECHANICAL 2 2 2

Connection Failure 1 135 1 1

Material Failure 1 210 1 1

NATURAL HAZARD 4 112 2 Mud Slide 3 250 80 8212 1 1 1 2 

Storm/ Hurricane 1 3500 1 

ARCTICIce GougingStrudel ScourUpheaval BucklingThaw SettlementOtherUNKNOWN 1 119 1 1

TOTALS 31 7 11 10 3 1

NUMBER

CAUSE OF SPILLS

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.1 
Table 1.2

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - P/L

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [km-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4km-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [km-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4km-year

CORROSION 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394External 5.56 1 0.0394Internal 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 7 0.2757 69.23 9 0.3545Anchor Impact 33.33 6 0.2363 30.77 4 0.1575Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 1 0.0394Trawl/Fishing Net 5.56 1 0.0394 30.77 4 0.1575

OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 3 0.1182 7.69 1 0.0394

Rig Anchoring 5.56 1 0.0394Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394MECHANICAL 11.11 2 0.0788Connection Failure 5.56 1 0.0394Material Failure 5.56 1 0.0394NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 2 0.0788 15.38 2 0.0788Mud Slide 11.11 2 0.0788 7.69 1 0.0394Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 1 0.0394ARCTICIce GougingStrudel ScourUpheaval BucklingThaw SettlementOtherUNKNOWN 5.56 1 0.0394TOTALS 100.00 18 0.7089 100.00 13 0.5120

Large and Huge Spills

253903 253903

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.2 
Table 1.2A

Historical Spills Data - Pipeline

Exposure** Frequ

Number Average Median

of Spills Volume Volume km-years spill 

bbl bbl 10^4 km

By Pipe Diameter

<10" 16 2141 173 142,892 1.11

>=10" 15 4070 1211 111,011 1.35

By Pipeline Minimum Depth

Bad Depth Data* 14

<10m 6 2310 1211 161,966 0.37

>=10m 11 3165 1040 94,641 1.16

By Segment Length

<0.5km 0 0 0 2,359 0.00

>=0.5<2km 2 2335 2335 25,484 0.78

>=2<5km 7 820 100 35,279 1.98

>=5km 22 3859 850 192,270 1.14

By Spill Size

Small 6 58 50 253,903 0.23

Medium 12 317 230 253,903 0.47

Large 10 4133 4267 253,903 0.39

Huge 3 16611 15576 253,903 0.11

By Diameter, By Spill Size

<10" Small 4 58 50 142,892 0.27

Medium 7 266 135 142,892 0.48

Large 4 4436 4551 142,892 0.27

Huge 1 14423 14423 142,892 0.07

>=10" Small 2 58 58 111,011 0.18

Medium 5 387 312 111,011 0.45

Large 6 3932 3600 111,011 0.54

Huge 2 17705 17705 111,011 0.18

*14 of the 31 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to "0".**Exposure comes from an analysis of PPL_MASTERS database as published on Feb 15, 2001.

Spill Statistics

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills, Categorized 1972-99

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.2A 
Table 1.3

Analysis of Historical Spills - Platforms

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 S M L 

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 13 130 50 120 104 60 1456 125 50 50 55 400 280 75 6 6 1 

STORAGE TANK RLS. 3 9935 7000 435 12 

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 1 58 1 

HURRICANE/STORM 2 75 66 2 

COLLISION 2 600 108 2 

ARCTICIce ForceFacility Low TemperatureOtherTOTALS 21 9 9 3 

N

CAUSE OF 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.3 
Table 1.4

Distribution and frequency of Historical Spills - Platforms

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSURE [well-years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4well-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION % NUMBER OF SPILLS EXPOSU RE [well- years] FREQUENCY spill per 10^4well-year

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 12 1.0024 33.33 1 0.0835STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 1 0.0835 66.67 2 0.1671STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 1 0.0835HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 2 0.1671COLLISION 11.11 2 0.1671ARCTICIce ForceFacility Low TemperatureOtherTOTALS 100.00 18 1.5036 100.00 3 0.2506

119714

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

119714

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.4 
Table 1.5

Frequency of Historical Spills - Wells

PRODUCTION WELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.50 3.50 4.00 1.50 1.00

EXPLORATION WELLDRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.16 22.11 25.27 9.50 5.50

DEVELOPMENT WELLDRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.30 9.08 10.38 3.90 3.90

Spill >=150000 bbl EVENT

FREQUENCY UNIT

Small, Medium, and Large Spills

Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Small and Medium Spills

Large Spill

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.5 
Table 1.5A

Historical Spills Data - Wells

Event Historical Frequency Experience 

Development drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 7.8 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present S

Exploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 1.5 x 10-4/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SDevelopment drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 3.9 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SExploration drilling blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 5.5 x 10-5/wells drilled worldwide, 1970 - present SBlowout during production and workovers involving some oil discharge >1 bbl 6.5 x 10-5/well-years U.S. OCS, 1964 - 1995 SL Ross 

Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 10,000 bbl 2.5 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present S

Production/workover blowout with oil spill > 150,000 bbl 1.0 x 10-5/well-year worldwide, 1970 - present S

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.1.5A 
Table 2.1

Fault Tree Analysis Input Rationalization - P/L

Shallow Medium Deep

External All (50) (50) (50) Low temperature and bio effects. Extra smart pigging.

Internal All (30) (30) (30) Extra smart pigging.

Anchor Impact All (90) (90) (90) Low traffic.

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (50) (50) (50) Low facility density.

Trawl/Fishing Net All (90) (90) (90) Low fishing activity.

Rig Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No marine traffic during ice season (8 months).

Work Boat Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) No work boat traffic during ice season (8 months). 

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (80) (60) (40) Gradient low. Mud slide potential (gradient) increases with water 

depth.

Storm/ Hurricane All (50) (50) (50) Fewer severe storms.

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.3495 0.1747

0.0680 0.0340

0.6178 0.3089

0.1210 0.0605

1.3438 0.6719

0.2610 0.1305

0.3762 0.1881

0.0730 0.0365

0.0021

0.0012

0.0038

0.0020

0.0082

0.0045

0.0023

0.0012

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0016 0.0016 0.0016

0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

0.0881 0.0438 0.0002

0.0174 0.0086 0.0001

0.1557 0.0775 0.0003

0.0309 0.0153 0.0002

0.3386 0.1686 0.0006

0.0667 0.0330 0.0003

0.0948 0.0472 0.0002

0.0187 0.0092 0.0001

Reason

Freq. Increment per 10^5 km-year

Spill 

Size

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Frequency Change %

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Only in shallow water. Average frequency of 4 scours/mile^2 and 100 

ft of bridge length with 10% conditional P/L failure probability. The 

same spill size distribution as above.

All water depth. The failure frequency is 20% of that of Strudel Scour.

Ice Gouging

Ice gouge failure rate calculated using exponential failure distribution 

for 2.5-m cover, 0.2-m average gouge depth, 4 gouges per km-yr 

flux. Spill size Distribution explained in text Section 2.5.2

S

M

L

H

Other

Thaw Settlement

Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

All water depth. The failure frequency is 10% of that of Strudel Scour.

To be assessed as 25% of above.

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

L

H

S

M

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.1 Milan Cerovsek 11/1/2002
Table 2.1A

Input - Pipeline

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected High

External All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Internal All (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45) (15) (30) (45)

Anchor Impact All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

Trawl/Fishing Net All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95)

Rig Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Work Boat Anchoring All (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30) (10) (20) (30)

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (50) (80) (90) (30) (60) (90) (20) (40) (60)

Storm/ Hurricane All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75)

S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0030 0.0340 0.4145

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0045 0.0605 0.7335

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0105 0.1305 1.5950

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0030 0.0365 0.4465

S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

S 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044 0.00004 0.00012 0.00044

M 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078 0.00006 0.00020 0.00078

L 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170 0.00014 0.00045 0.00170

H 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048 0.00004 0.00012 0.00048

S 0.00162 0.01738 0.20869 0.00078 0.00859 0.10396 0.00003 0.00009 0.00033

M 0.00246 0.03092 0.36929 0.00117 0.01528 0.18396 0.00005 0.00015 0.00059

L 0.00571 0.06670 0.80303 0.00273 0.03296 0.40003 0.00011 0.00033 0.00128

H 0.00163 0.01865 0.22480 0.00078 0.00922 0.11198 0.00003 0.00009 0.00036

Other

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Frequency Increment per 10^5km-year

Ice Gouging

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Shallow Medium Deep

Frequency Change % Spill 

Size

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT21A Milan Cerovsek 11/1/2002
Table 2.2

FTA Input Rationalization Platforms

Shallow Medium Deep

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (50) (50) (50) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (30) (30) (30) High safety factor, Monitoring Programs

HURRICANE/STORM All (80) (80) (80) Less severe storms.

COLLISION All (90) (90) (90) Very low traffic density.

Median Median Median

Expected Expected Expected

0.1447 0.2170 0.3256

0.0340 0.0510 0.0765

0.0255 0.0383 0.0575

0.0060 0.0090 0.0135

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0244 0.0316 0.0424

0.0134 0.0151 0.0177

0.0033 0.0046 0.0065

0.0014 0.0017 0.0022

Other

LH

SM

10% of above.

Assumed 10% of Historical Process Facilities release frequency and coresponding 

spill size distribution.

Ice Force

LH

SM

Assumed 1/10000 years ice force causes spill. 85% of the spills are SM.

Facility Low Temperature

LH

SM

Freq. Increment per 10^4 well-year

ARCTIC

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Reason Spill 

Size

Frequency Change %

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.2 Milan Cerovsek 11/1/2002
Table 2.2A

Input - Platforms

Low Expected High Low Expected High Low Expected 

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) (80) (30) (50) STORAGE TANK RLS. All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) (40) (20) (30) HURRICANE/STORM All (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) (75) (25) (50) COLLISION All (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) (95) (60) (90) 

SM 0.003 0.034 0.340 0.005 0.051 0.510 0.008 0.077 

LH 0.001 0.006 0.060 0.001 0.009 0.090 0.001 0.014 

SM 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 

LH 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 

SM 0.005 0.013 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.066 0.006 0.018 

LH 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.001 0.002 

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

ARCTICIce Force

Shallow

Spill 

Size

Medium Deep

Frequency Change %

Frequency Increment per 10^4 well-year

Facility Low TemperatureOther

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT22A 
Table 2.3

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L -Small Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 16.67 0.467 (0.1711) 0.2955 21.21 (0.1711) 0.2955 20.93 (0.1711) 0.2955 20.65 0.300 (0.1101) 0.1902 20.50 (0.110) 0.190 External 5.56 0.156 (0.0778) 0.0778 5.58 (0.0778) 0.0778 5.51 (0.0778) 0.0778 5.43 0.100 (0.0500) 0.0500 5.39 (0.050) 0.050 Internal 11.11 0.311 (0.0933) 0.2177 15.63 (0.0933) 0.2177 15.43 (0.0933) 0.2177 15.21 0.200 (0.0601) 0.1401 15.11 (0.060) 0.140 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 1.089 (0.9798) 0.1089 7.81 (0.9798) 0.1089 7.71 (0.9798) 0.1089 7.61 0.701 (0.6306) 0.0701 7.55 (0.631) 0.070 Anchor Impact 33.33 0.933 (0.8398) 0.0933 6.70 (0.8398) 0.0933 6.61 (0.8398) 0.0933 6.52 0.601 (0.5405) 0.0601 6.47 (0.540) 0.060 Jackup Rig or Spud BargeTrawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.156 (0.1400) 0.0156 1.12 (0.1400) 0.0156 1.10 (0.1400) 0.0156 1.09 0.100 (0.0901) 0.0100 1.08 (0.090) 0.010 OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.467 (0.0933) 0.3732 26.79 (0.0933) 0.3732 26.44 (0.0933) 0.3732 26.08 0.300 (0.0601) 0.2402 25.90 (0.060) 0.240 Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.156 (0.0311) 0.1244 8.93 (0.0311) 0.1244 8.81 (0.0311) 0.1244 8.69 0.100 (0.0200) 0.0801 8.63 (0.020) 0.080 Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.311 (0.0622) 0.2488 17.86 (0.0622) 0.2488 17.63 (0.0622) 0.2488 17.39 0.200 (0.0400) 0.1601 17.26 (0.040) 0.160 MECHANICAL 11.11 0.311 0.3110 22.32 0.3110 22.04 0.3110 21.73 0.200 0.2002 21.58 0.200 Connection Failure 5.56 0.156 0.1555 11.16 0.1555 11.02 0.1555 10.87 0.100 0.1001 10.79 0.100 Material Failure 5.56 0.156 0.1555 11.16 0.1555 11.02 0.1555 10.87 0.100 0.1001 10.79 0.100 NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.311 (0.2488) 0.0622 4.46 (0.1866) 0.1244 8.81 (0.1244) 0.1866 13.04 0.200 (0.1601) 0.0400 4.32 (0.120) 0.080 Mud Slide 11.11 0.311 (0.2488) 0.0622 4.46 (0.1866) 0.1244 8.81 (0.1244) 0.1866 13.04 0.200 (0.1601) 0.0400 4.32 (0.120) 0.080 Storm/ HurricaneARCTIC 0.0869 0.0869 6.24 0.0429 0.0429 3.04 0.0004 0.0004 0.03 0.0869 0.0869 9.37 0.043 0.043 Ice Gouging 0.0680 0.0680 4.88 0.0340 0.0340 2.41 0.0680 0.0680 7.33 0.0340 0.034Strudel Scour 0.0012 0.0012 0.08 0.0012 0.0012 0.12Upheaval Buckling 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.0002 0.02 0.0002 0.000Thaw Settlement 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.000Other 0.0174 0.0174 1.25 0.0086 0.0086 0.61 0.0001 0.0001 0.01 0.0174 0.0174 1.87 0.0086 0.008UNKNOWN 5.56 0.156 0.1555 11.16 0.1555 11.02 0.1555 10.87 0.100 0.1001 10.79 0.100 TOTALS 100.00 2.799 (1.406) 1.393 100.00 (1.388) 1.411 100.00 (1.368) 1.431 100.00 1.802 (0.874) 0.928 100.00 (0.878) 0.924 

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

SMALL SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Mediu

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.3 
Table 2.4

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L - Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 16.67 0.816 (0.2994) 0.5171 21.19 (0.2994) 0.5171 20.92 (0.2994) 0.5171 20.65 0.751 (0.2752) 0.4754 21.07 (0.2752) 0.475External 5.56 0.272 (0.1361) 0.1361 5.58 (0.1361) 0.1361 5.51 (0.1361) 0.1361 5.43 0.250 (0.1251) 0.1251 5.54 (0.1251) 0.125Internal 11.11 0.544 (0.1633) 0.3810 15.61 (0.1633) 0.3810 15.42 (0.1633) 0.3810 15.21 0.500 (0.1501) 0.3503 15.52 (0.1501) 0.350THIRD PARTY IMPACT 38.89 1.905 (1.7146) 0.1905 7.81 (1.7146) 0.1905 7.71 (1.7146) 0.1905 7.61 1.752 (1.5764) 0.1752 7.76 (1.5764) 0.175Anchor Impact 33.33 1.633 (1.4696) 0.1633 6.69 (1.4696) 0.1633 6.61 (1.4696) 0.1633 6.52 1.501 (1.3512) 0.1501 6.65 (1.3512) 0.150Jackup Rig or Spud BargeTrawl/Fishing Net 5.56 0.272 (0.2449) 0.0272 1.12 (0.2449) 0.0272 1.10 (0.2449) 0.0272 1.09 0.250 (0.2252) 0.0250 1.11 (0.2252) 0.025OPERATION IMPACT 16.67 0.816 (0.1633) 0.6532 26.76 (0.1633) 0.6532 26.43 (0.1633) 0.6532 26.08 0.751 (0.1501) 0.6005 26.61 (0.1501) 0.600Rig Anchoring 5.56 0.272 (0.0544) 0.2177 8.92 (0.0544) 0.2177 8.81 (0.0544) 0.2177 8.69 0.250 (0.0500) 0.2002 8.87 (0.0500) 0.200Work Boat Anchoring 11.11 0.544 (0.1089) 0.4354 17.84 (0.1089) 0.4354 17.62 (0.1089) 0.4354 17.39 0.500 (0.1001) 0.4004 17.74 (0.1001) 0.400MECHANICAL 11.11 0.544 0.5443 22.30 0.5443 22.02 0.5443 21.73 0.500 0.5005 22.18 0.500Connection Failure 5.56 0.272 0.2722 11.15 0.2722 11.01 0.2722 10.87 0.250 0.2502 11.09 0.250Material Failure 5.56 0.272 0.2722 11.15 0.2722 11.01 0.2722 10.87 0.250 0.2502 11.09 0.250NATURAL HAZARD 11.11 0.544 (0.4354) 0.1089 4.46 (0.3266) 0.2177 8.81 (0.2177) 0.3266 13.04 0.500 (0.4004) 0.1001 4.44 (0.3003) 0.200Mud Slide 11.11 0.544 (0.4354) 0.1089 4.46 (0.3266) 0.2177 8.81 (0.2177) 0.3266 13.04 0.500 (0.4004) 0.1001 4.44 (0.3003) 0.200Storm/ HurricaneARCTIC 0.1546 0.1546 6.33 0.0764 0.0764 3.09 0.0008 0.0008 0.03 0.1546 0.1546 6.85 0.0764 0.076Ice Gouging 0.1210 0.1210 4.96 0.0605 0.0605 2.45 0.1210 0.1210 5.36 0.0605 0.060Strudel Scour 0.0020 0.0020 0.08 0.0020 0.0020 0.09Upheaval Buckling 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.000Thaw Settlement 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0002 0.000Other 0.0309 0.0309 1.27 0.0153 0.0153 0.62 0.0002 0.0002 0.01 0.0309 0.0309 1.37 0.0153 0.015UNKNOWN 5.56 0.272 0.2722 11.15 0.2722 11.01 0.2722 10.87 0.250 0.2502 11.09 0.250TOTALS 100.00 4.899 (2.458) 2.441 100.00 (2.427) 2.471 100.00 (2.394) 2.505 100.00 4.504 (2.248) 2.256 100.00 (2.226) 2.278 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

MEDIUM SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Mediu

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.4 
Table 2.5

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L - Large Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 13.86 (0.065) 0.151 15.68 (0.065) 0.151 17.91 0.416 (0.125) 0.291 16.27 (0.125) 0.291 

ExternalInternal 7.69 0.215 (0.065) 0.151 13.86 (0.065) 0.151 15.68 (0.065) 0.151 17.91 0.416 (0.125) 0.291 16.27 (0.125) 0.291 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 1.938 (1.658) 0.280 25.75 (1.658) 0.280 29.11 (1.658) 0.280 33.27 3.742 (3.201) 0.540 30.22 (3.201) 0.540 Anchor Impact 30.77 0.861 (0.775) 0.086 7.92 (0.775) 0.086 8.96 (0.775) 0.086 10.24 1.663 (1.497) 0.166 9.30 (1.497) 0.166 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 9.90 (0.108) 0.108 11.20 (0.108) 0.108 12.80 0.416 (0.208) 0.208 11.62 (0.208) 0.208 Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.861 (0.775) 0.086 7.92 (0.775) 0.086 8.96 (0.775) 0.086 10.24 1.663 (1.497) 0.166 9.30 (1.497) 0.166 OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 15.85 (0.043) 0.172 17.92 (0.043) 0.172 20.47 0.416 (0.083) 0.333 18.60 (0.083) 0.333 Rig AnchoringWork Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.215 (0.043) 0.172 15.85 (0.043) 0.172 17.92 (0.043) 0.172 20.47 0.416 (0.083) 0.333 18.60 (0.083) 0.333 MECHANICALConnection FailureMaterial FailureNATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.431 (0.280) 0.151 13.86 (0.237) 0.194 20.16 (0.194) 0.237 28.15 0.832 (0.540) 0.291 16.27 (0.457) 0.374 Mud Slide 7.69 0.215 (0.172) 0.043 3.96 (0.129) 0.086 8.96 (0.086) 0.129 15.35 0.416 (0.333) 0.083 4.65 (0.249) 0.166 Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.215 (0.108) 0.108 9.90 (0.108) 0.108 11.20 (0.108) 0.108 12.80 0.416 (0.208) 0.208 11.62 (0.208) 0.208 ARCTIC 0.333 0.333 30.68 0.165 0.165 17.14 0.002 0.002 0.20 0.333 0.333 18.64 0.165 0.165 Ice Gouging 0.2610 0.2610 24.01 0.1305 0.1305 13.57 0.2610 0.2610 14.59 0.1305 0.1305 Strudel Scour 0.0045 0.0045 0.41 0.0045 0.0045 0.25Upheaval Buckling 0.0009 0.0009 0.08 0.0009 0.0009 0.09 0.0009 0.0009 0.11 0.0009 0.0009 0.05 0.0009 0.0009 Thaw Settlement 0.0004 0.0004 0.04 0.0004 0.0004 0.05 0.0004 0.0004 0.05 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 Other 0.0667 0.0667 6.14 0.0330 0.0330 3.43 0.0003 0.0003 0.04 0.0667 0.0667 3.73 0.0330 0.0330 UNKNOWNTOTALS 100.00 2.799 (1.712) 1.087 100.00 (1.838) 0.962 100.00 (1.958) 0.841 100.00 5.405 (3.616) 1.789 100.00 (3.702) 1.703 

Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

LARGE SPILL

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium 

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.5 
Table 2.6

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency P/L - Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

CORROSION 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 13.38 (0.016) 0.038 15.36 (0.016) 0.038 17.91 0.139 (0.042) 0.097 16.77 (0.042) 0.097 

ExternalInternal 7.69 0.054 (0.016) 0.038 13.38 (0.016) 0.038 15.36 (0.016) 0.038 17.91 0.139 (0.042) 0.097 16.77 (0.042) 0.097 THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 0.484 (0.415) 0.070 24.84 (0.415) 0.070 28.53 (0.415) 0.070 33.26 1.247 (1.067) 0.180 31.15 (1.067) 0.180 Anchor Impact 30.77 0.215 (0.194) 0.022 7.64 (0.194) 0.022 8.78 (0.194) 0.022 10.23 0.554 (0.499) 0.055 9.59 (0.499) 0.055 Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 9.56 (0.027) 0.027 10.97 (0.027) 0.027 12.79 0.139 (0.069) 0.069 11.98 (0.069) 0.069 Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.215 (0.194) 0.022 7.64 (0.194) 0.022 8.78 (0.194) 0.022 10.23 0.554 (0.499) 0.055 9.59 (0.499) 0.055 OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 15.29 (0.011) 0.043 17.56 (0.011) 0.043 20.47 0.139 (0.028) 0.111 19.17 (0.028) 0.111 Rig AnchoringWork Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.054 (0.011) 0.043 15.29 (0.011) 0.043 17.56 (0.011) 0.043 20.47 0.139 (0.028) 0.111 19.17 (0.028) 0.111 MECHANICALConnection FailureMaterial FailureNATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.108 (0.070) 0.038 13.38 (0.059) 0.048 19.75 (0.048) 0.059 28.14 0.277 (0.180) 0.097 16.77 (0.152) 0.125 Mud Slide 7.69 0.054 (0.043) 0.011 3.82 (0.032) 0.022 8.78 (0.022) 0.032 15.35 0.139 (0.111) 0.028 4.79 (0.083) 0.055 Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.054 (0.027) 0.027 9.56 (0.027) 0.027 10.97 (0.027) 0.027 12.79 0.139 (0.069) 0.069 11.98 (0.069) 0.069 ARCTIC 0.093 0.093 33.11 0.046 0.046 18.79 0.000 0.000 0.22 0.093 0.093 16.13 0.046 0.046 Ice Gouging 0.0730 0.0730 25.92 0.0365 0.0365 14.88 0.0730 0.0730 12.62 0.0365 0.0365 Strudel Scour 0.0012 0.0012 0.44 0.0012 0.0012 0.22Upheaval Buckling 0.0002 0.0002 0.09 0.0002 0.0002 0.10 0.0002 0.0002 0.12 0.0002 0.0002 0.04 0.0002 0.0002 Thaw Settlement 0.0001 0.0001 0.04 0.0001 0.0001 0.05 0.0001 0.0001 0.06 0.0001 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.0001 Other 0.0187 0.0187 6.62 0.0092 0.0092 3.76 0.0001 0.0001 0.04 0.0187 0.0187 3.23 0.0092 0.0092 UNKNOWNTOTALS 100.00 0.700 (0.418) 0.282 100.00 (0.455) 0.245 100.00 (0.489) 0.210 100.00 1.802 (1.223) 0.578 100.00 (1.243) 0.559 

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

HUGE SPILL

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >=10"

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

5

km-year

Shallow Medium 

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.6 
Table 2.7

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency Platforms -Small and Medium Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 1.002 (0.501) 0.501 57.89 (0.501) 0.5012 56.67 (0.501) 0.5012 54.9

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.75 (0.025) 0.0585 6.61 (0.025) 0.0585 6.4

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 0.084 (0.025) 0.058 6.75 (0.025) 0.0585 6.61 (0.025) 0.0585 6.4

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 0.167 (0.084) 0.084 9.65 (0.084) 0.0835 9.44 (0.084) 0.0835 9.15

COLLISION 11.11 0.167 (0.150) 0.017 1.93 (0.150) 0.0167 1.89 (0.150) 0.0167 1.83

ARCTIC 0.147 0.147 17.03 0.166 0.1661 18.78 0.194 0.1942 21.2Ice Force 0.034 0.034 3.93 0.051 0.0510 5.77 0.077 0.0765 8.38Facility Low Temperature 0.100 0.100 11.55 0.100 0.1000 11.31 0.100 0.1000 10.9Other 0.013 0.013 1.55 0.015 0.0151 1.71 0.018 0.0177 1.93TOTALS 100.00 1.504 (0.638) 0.866 100.00 (0.619) 0.8845 100.00 (0.591) 0.9125 100.0

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

4

well-year

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.7 
Table 2.8

Artic Spill Distribution and Frequency Platforms -Large and Huge Spills

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

%

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 33.33 0.0835 (0.042) 0.0418 23.99 (0.042) 0.0418 23.54 (0.042) 0.0418 22.9

STORAGE TANK RLS. 66.67 0.1671 (0.050) 0.1169 67.17 (0.050) 0.1169 65.92 (0.050) 0.1169 64.1

STRUCTURAL FAILUREHURRICANE/STORMCOLLISIONARCTIC 0.015 0.0154 8.84 0.019 0.0187 10.54 0.024 0.0237 12.9Ice Force 0.006 0.0060 3.45 0.009 0.0090 5.07 0.014 0.0135 7.40Facility Low Temperature 0.008 0.0080 4.59 0.008 0.0080 4.51 0.008 0.0080 4.39Other 0.001 0.0014 0.80 0.002 0.0017 0.96 0.002 0.0022 1.18TOTALS 100.00 0.2506 (0.076) 0.1741 100.00 (0.073) 0.1774 100.00 (0.068) 0.1824 100.0

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION %

FREQUENCY

spill per

10

4

well-year

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.8 
Table 2.9

Artic Frequency - Wells

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTIONWELL

spill

per 105

well-year

0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.000 

EXPLORATIONWELL DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

3.160 3.160 3.160 3.160 22.110 22.110 22.110 22.110 9.500 9.500 9.500 9.500 5.500 

DEVELOPMENTWELL DRILLING

spill

per 105

wells

1.300 1.300 1.300 1.300 9.080 9.080 9.080 9.080 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 3.900 

EVENT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium

Large Spill

FREQUENCY UNIT

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl

Shallow Medium Deep Deep

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Small and Medium Spills

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium Deep

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.9 
Table 2.10

Average Spill Distribution

Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Expected High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low 

P/L Dia <10" Spill 1 58 99 52 100 226 999 485 1000 4436 9999 5279 10000 P/L Dia > 10" Spill 1 58 99 52 100 387 999 516 1000 3932 9999 5176 10000 Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected

Platform Spill 1 158 999 431 1000 6130 10000 5631Spill SizeSpill Expectation Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low Most Likely High Expected Low 

Well Blowout Spill 1 500 999 500 1000 4500 9999 5292 10000 20000 150000 68349 150000 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

PLATFORM SPILLSWELL BLOWOUT SPILLS

Small and Medium Spills Large Spill Spill >=10000 <150000 bbl 

PIPELINE SPILLS

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill 

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT.2.10 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 2.799 1.802 Historical Frequency

S 1.393 0.928 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.411 0.924 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.431 0.921 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.467 0.300 H 1.089 0.701 H 0.467 0.300 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.156 0.100 

S 0.295 0.190 S 0.109 0.070 S 0.373 0.240 S 0.311 0.200 S 0.062 0.040 S 0.156 0.100 

M 0.295 0.190 M 0.109 0.070 M 0.373 0.240 M 0.311 0.200 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.156 0.100 

D 0.295 0.190 D 0.109 0.070 D 0.373 0.240 D 0.311 0.200 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.156 0.100 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.156 0.100 H 0.933 0.601 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.000 

S 0.078 0.050 S 0.093 0.060 S 0.124 0.080 S 0.156 0.100 S 0.062 0.040 S 0.068 

M 0.078 0.050 M 0.093 0.060 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.156 0.100 M 0.124 0.080 M 0.034 

D 0.078 0.050 D 0.093 0.060 D 0.124 0.080 D 0.156 0.100 D 0.187 0.120 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.311 0.200 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.311 0.200 H 0.156 0.100 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 

S 0.218 0.140 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.249 0.160 S 0.156 0.100 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.001 

M 0.218 0.140 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.249 0.160 M 0.156 0.100 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 

D 0.218 0.140 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.249 0.160 D 0.156 0.100 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.156 0.100 

S 0.016 0.010 

M 0.016 0.010 

D 0.016 0.010 

Figure 2.1 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Small Spill

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Small Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.1 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 4.899 4.504 Historical Frequency

S 2.441 2.256 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 2.471 2.278 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 2.505 2.303 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.816 0.751 H 1.905 1.752 H 0.816 0.751 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.272 0.250 

S 0.517 0.475 S 0.191 0.175 S 0.653 0.601 S 0.544 0.500 S 0.109 0.100 S 0.272 0.250 

M 0.517 0.475 M 0.191 0.175 M 0.653 0.601 M 0.544 0.500 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.272 0.250 

D 0.517 0.475 D 0.191 0.175 D 0.653 0.601 D 0.544 0.500 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.272 0.250 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.272 0.250 H 1.633 1.501 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.000 

S 0.136 0.125 S 0.163 0.150 S 0.218 0.200 S 0.272 0.250 S 0.109 0.100 S 0.121 

M 0.136 0.125 M 0.163 0.150 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.272 0.250 M 0.218 0.200 M 0.061 

D 0.136 0.125 D 0.163 0.150 D 0.218 0.200 D 0.272 0.250 D 0.327 0.300 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.544 0.500 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.544 0.500 H 0.272 0.250 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 

S 0.381 0.350 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.435 0.400 S 0.272 0.250 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.002 

M 0.381 0.350 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.435 0.400 M 0.272 0.250 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 

D 0.381 0.350 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.435 0.400 D 0.272 0.250 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.272 0.250 

S 0.027 0.025 

M 0.027 0.025 

D 0.027 0.025 

Figure 2.2 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Medium Spill

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Medium Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF2.2 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 2.799 5.405 Historical Frequency

S 1.087 1.789 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.962 1.703 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.841 1.623 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.215 0.416 H 1.938 3.742 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.431 0.832 H 0.000 0.000 

S 0.151 0.291 S 0.280 0.540 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.151 0.291 S 0.000 0.000 

M 0.151 0.291 M 0.280 0.540 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.194 0.374 M 0.000 0.000 

D 0.151 0.291 D 0.280 0.540 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.237 0.457 D 0.000 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.861 1.663 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.086 0.166 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.043 0.083 S 0.261 

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.086 0.166 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.086 0.166 M 0.131 

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.086 0.166 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.129 0.249 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.215 0.416 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.416 H 0.000 

S 0.151 0.291 S 0.108 0.208 S 0.172 0.333 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.108 0.208 S 0.004 

M 0.151 0.291 M 0.108 0.208 M 0.172 0.333 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.108 0.208 M 0.000 

D 0.151 0.291 D 0.108 0.208 D 0.172 0.333 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.108 0.208 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.861 1.663 

S 0.086 0.166 

M 0.086 0.166 

D 0.086 0.166 

Figure 2.3 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Large Spill

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Large Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.3 
Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 0.700 1.802 Historical Frequency

S 0.282 0.578 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.245 0.559 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.210 0.541 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=1

H 0.054 0.139 H 0.484 1.247 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.108 0.277 H 0.000 0.000 

S 0.038 0.097 S 0.070 0.180 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.038 0.097 S 0.000 0.000 

M 0.038 0.097 M 0.070 0.180 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.048 0.125 M 0.000 0.000 

D 0.038 0.097 D 0.070 0.180 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.059 0.152 D 0.000 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.215 0.554 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.022 0.055 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.011 0.028 S 0.073 

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.022 0.055 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.022 0.055 M 0.037 

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.022 0.055 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.032 0.083 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10

H 0.054 0.139 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.054 0.139 H 0.000 

S 0.038 0.097 S 0.027 0.069 S 0.043 0.111 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.027 0.069 S 0.001 

M 0.038 0.097 M 0.027 0.069 M 0.043 0.111 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.027 0.069 M 0.000 

D 0.038 0.097 D 0.027 0.069 D 0.043 0.111 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.027 0.069 D 0.000 

Dia<10" Dia>=10" 

H 0.215 0.554 

S 0.022 0.055 

M 0.022 0.055 

D 0.022 0.055 

Figure 2.4 Fault Tree - Pipeline - Huge Spill

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN 

I

St

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Huge Spill

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.4 
SM LH Spill Size

Note : All Values per 10000 well-year H 1.504 0.251 Historical Frequency

S 0.866 0.174 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 0.884 0.177 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.913 0.182 Deep Water Depth Frequency

SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH

H 1.002 0.084 H 0.084 0.167 H 0.084 0.000 H 0.167 0.000 H 0.167 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.501 0.042 S 0.058 0.117 S 0.058 0.000 S 0.084 0.000 S 0.017 0.000 S 0.147 0.015

M 0.501 0.042 M 0.058 0.117 M 0.058 0.000 M 0.084 0.000 M 0.017 0.000 M 0.166 0.019

D 0.501 0.042 D 0.058 0.117 D 0.058 0.000 D 0.084 0.000 D 0.017 0.000 D 0.194 0.024

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.034 0.

M 0.051 0.

D 0.077 0.

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.100 0.

M 0.100 0.

D 0.100 0.

SM L

H 0.000 0.

S 0.013 0.

M 0.015 0.

D 0.018 0.

Figure 2.5 Fault Tree - Platform Spill

PROCESS FACILITY RLS.

Facility Low Temper

STORAGE TANK RLS. STRUCTURAL FAILURE HURRICANE/STORM COLLISION ARCTIC

Platform Spill

Other

Ice Force

Bercha Group D1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF.2.5 
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium 1

Deep

Total 1 2 1

Shallow 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 113333 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Shallow 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 36 4 18 1 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 39.8

Medium

Deep

Total 2 10 46 4 22 1 20 20 39.8

Shallow 2 46 22 20 20 36.3

Medium 113333 1

Deep

Total 1 3 3 49 3 25 1 20 20 36.3

Shallow 2 46 22 10 30 10 30 33.4

Medium 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep

Total 3 10 59 4 29 1 20 40 20 40 44.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 27.6

Medium 1 10 23 4 11 1 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 40 40 47.5

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 22.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 42.6

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 18.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 38.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 15.5

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 16.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 31.9

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 12.8

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 13.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 26.3

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 10.5

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 11.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 21.7

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 8.7

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 9.2

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 17.9

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells

2012

2013

2014

2015

2008

2009

2010

2011

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

2007

2004

2005

2006

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.1 11/1/2002
Table 3.1

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10"

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year ExplorationWells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 7.3

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 7.6

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 14.9

Shallow 2 46 22 30 30 6.1

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 6.3

Deep

Total 3 69 33 40 40 12.4

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 3.0

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 5.2

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 30 -10 30 8.2

Shallow 1 23 11 20 20 2.6

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 30 30 6.9

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -10 10 -10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.5

Deep

Total -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 20 -10 20 3.5

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 3.0

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 3.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 1 23 11 10 10 2.6

Deep

Total 1 23 11 20 20 2.6

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -1 -23 -11 -10 -10

Deep

Total -1 -23 -11 -20 -20

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.1 11/1/2002
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 2 1

Medium

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep 1 1

Total 2 2 113333 1

Shallow 1 10 13 4 7 1 15 15 15 15 10.9

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 1 10 13 4 7 1 15 15 15 15 10.9

Shallow 1 10 23 4 11 1 15 15 19.9

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1 1 10 23 4 11 1 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 15 15 19.9

Medium 113333 1

Deep

Total 1 2 3 26 3 14 1 15 15 19.9

Shallow 1 23 11 10 25 10 25 16.4

Medium 1 2 13 16 7 10 2 5 5 10 10 15 15 18.4

Deep

Total 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 20 35 25 40 34.8

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 13.5

Medium 2 20 36 8 18 2 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 20 59 8 29 2 5 35 40 44.2

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 11.2

Medium 2 10 46 4 22 1 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 10 69 4 33 1 5 35 40 41.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 9.2

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 39.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 7.6

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 30.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 38.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 6.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 26.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 32.7

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.2 11/1/2002
Table 3.2

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" ProductionRigs

Water

Depth Year ProductionMMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 5.2

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 22.7

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 27.9

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 4.3

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 19.5

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 23.8

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 3.5

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 16.8

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 20.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 2.9

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 14.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 17.3

Shallow 1 23 11 25 25 2.4

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 12.4

Deep

Total 3 69 33 5 35 40 14.8

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 10 -15 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 10.7

Deep

Total -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 5 -15 20 -15 25 10.7

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 9.2

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 9.2

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 7.9

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 7.9

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 6.8

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 6.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 5.8

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.8

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 5.0

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 5.0

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 4.3

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 4.3

Shallow 10 10

Medium 2 46 22 5 10 15 3.7

Deep

Total 2 46 22 5 20 25 3.7

Shallow -10 -10

Medium -2 -46 -22 -5 -10 -15

Deep

Total -2 -46 -22 -5 -20 -25

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2023

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.2 11/1/2002
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 1 1 1

Deep

Total 1 1 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep

Total 2 1

Shallow

Medium 2 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1

Shallow

Medium 114444 1

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 114444 1

Shallow 15 15 15 15

Medium 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 15 15 20 20 30.8

Deep

Total 1 2 14 18 8 12 2 5 5 30 30 35 35 30.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 38 8 20 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 20 58 9 29 2 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 10 68 5 34 1 5 30 35 38.6

2019

2020

2021

2022

Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10" WaterDepth

2016

2017

2018

Exploration

Wells

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

Production

MMbbl Sum All

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

Service In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Wells Sum >=10"

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 3.3

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 2004-2038

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 38.6

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 38.6

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 34.0

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 34.0

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 29.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 29.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 26.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 26.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 23.2

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 23.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 20.4

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 20.4

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 17.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 17.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 15.8

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 15.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 13.9

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 13.9

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 12.2

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 12.2

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 10.8

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 10.8

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 9.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 9.5

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 8.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 1

Medium

Deep

Total 1 1

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 2

Shallow 2 2

Medium

Deep

Total 2 2

Shallow 1 2 2

Medium 1

Deep

Total 2 2 2

Shallow 2 1 113333 1

Medium 1 1

Deep

Total 1 2 2 113333 1

Shallow 1 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Medium 1 2 2

Deep

Total 2 2 3 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Shallow 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Medium

Deep

Total 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Shallow 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 30.8

Medium 2 2

Deep 1 1

Total 3 3 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 10 20 10 20 30.8

Shallow 3 20 59 8 29 2 15 35 15 35 50.7

Medium 1 3 2

Deep 1 1

Total 2 3 3 3 20 59 8 29 2 15 35 15 35 50.7

Shallow 3 10 69 4 33 1 35 35 56.2

Medium 4 2 113333 1

Deep

Total 4 2 1 4 13 72 7 36 2 35 35 56.2

Shallow 3 69 33 10 45 10 45 53.3

Medium 2 1 1 10 13 4 7 1 10 10 10 10 10.9

Deep 1 1

Total 1 2 2 4 10 82 4 40 1 20 55 20 55 64.2

Shallow 3 69 33 45 45 47.5

Medium 1 2 13 26 7 14 2 10 10 19.9

Deep

Total 1 5 13 95 7 47 2 55 55 67.4

Shallow 3 69 33 10 55 10 55 39.1

Medium 1 3 13 39 7 21 2 5 5 10 20 15 25 38.3

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 6 13 108 7 54 2 5 5 20 75 25 80 77.4

Shallow 3 69 33 55 55 32.3

Medium 1 4 24 63 12 33 3 5 20 25 50.6

Deep 1 1

Total 1 1 1 7 24 132 12 66 3 5 75 80 82.9

Shallow 3 69 33 15 70 15 70 26.7

Medium 1 5 24 87 12 45 3 5 10 15 35 20 45 77.9

Deep

Total 1 8 24 156 12 78 3 5 10 30 105 35 115 104.6

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 22.0

Medium 5 20 107 8 53 2 10 35 45 82.8

Deep

Total 8 20 176 8 86 2 10 105 115 104.8

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 18.1

Medium 5 20 127 9 62 2 10 35 45 80.5

Deep

Total 8 20 196 9 95 2 10 105 115 98.6

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 15.0

Medium 5 10 137 5 67 1 10 35 45 74.2

Deep

Total 8 10 206 5 100 1 10 105 115 89.2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2015

2016

2017

2018

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

2007

Year

2004

2005

2006

Sum All

2008

2009

Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.4 11/1/2002
Table 3.4

Beaufort Sea All Sales 2004-2038

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Year Sum All Exploration

Wells

Service

Wells Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" WaterDepth

Production

Platforms

Production

Wells Production

Rigs

In-use Pipeline Length [miles] Delineation

Wells

Expl./Del.

Rigs Sum<10"

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 12.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 68.9

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 81.4

Shallow 3 69 33 70 70 10.4

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 64.4

Deep

Total 8 206 100 10 105 115 74.8

Shallow -1 2 -23 46 -11 22 -10 60 -10 60 6.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 56.0

Deep

Total -1 7 -23 183 -11 89 10 -10 95 -10 105 62.5

Shallow 2 46 22 60 60 5.5

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 48.6

Deep

Total 7 183 89 10 95 105 54.1

Shallow -1 1 -23 23 -11 11 -10 50 -10 50 2.4

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 42.2

Deep

Total -1 6 -23 160 -11 78 10 -10 85 -10 95 44.6

Shallow -1 -23 -11 -15 35 -15 35

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 36.9

Deep

Total -1 5 -23 137 -11 67 10 -15 70 -15 80 36.9

Shallow 35 35

Medium 5 137 67 10 35 45 32.2

Deep

Total 5 137 67 10 70 80 32.2

Shallow -10 25 -10 25

Medium -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -10 25 -10 35 25.8

Deep

Total -1 4 -23 114 -11 56 10 -20 50 -20 60 25.8

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 22.6

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 22.6

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 19.7

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 19.7

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 17.2

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 17.2

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 15.1

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 15.1

Shallow 25 25

Medium 4 114 56 10 25 35 13.2

Deep

Total 4 114 56 10 50 60 13.2

Shallow -10 15 -10 15

Medium -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -10 15 -15 20 8.3

Deep

Total -2 2 -46 68 -22 34 -5 5 -20 30 -25 35 8.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 7.3

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 7.3

Shallow 15 15

Medium 2 68 34 5 15 20 6.5

Deep

Total 2 68 34 5 30 35 6.5

2031

2036

2037

2038

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2028

2029

2030

2023

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.4 11/1/2002
Table T.3.5

Chukchi Sea Base Case 1998-2010

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 2

Total 2 2 0

Shallow 5555

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 135 135 135 135

Total 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 2 8 8 135 135

Total 2 2 8 8 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 4 40 48 135 135

Total 2 4 40 48 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 2 6 60 108 135 135

Total 2 6 60 108 200 200 101

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 80 188 135 135

Total 6 80 188 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 26 214 135 135

Total 6 26 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 135

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 119

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 103

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 214 135 135

Total 6 214 200 200 92

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth

2002

Year Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10"

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.5 11/1/2002
Table T.3.6

Chukchi Sea High Case 1998-2010

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum.

Shallow

Medium

Deep 3 1

Total 3 1 0

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2 1

Total 2 1 0

Shallow 5555

Medium 60 60 60 60

Deep 2 2 2 135 135 135 135

Total 2 2 2 200 200 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 6 8 50 50 135 135

Total 6 8 50 50 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 4 12 80 130 135 135

Total 4 12 80 130 200 200 0

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 270 135 135

Total 12 140 270 200 200 223

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 140 410 135 135

Total 12 140 410 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 72 482 135 135

Total 12 72 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 297

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 262

Shallow 5 5

Medium 60 60

Deep 12 482 135 135

Total 12 482 200 200 227

2007

2008

2009

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

Water

Depth

2002

Year

1998

1999

2000

2001

Exploration

Wells

Delineation

Wells Sum<10" Production

MMbbl Sum >=10" Sum All

Production

Platforms

Prod./Serv.

Wells

Pipeline Length [miles]

Bercha Group D3 Hazard Scenarious.xlsT.3.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

201620092010201120122013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2015200820042005200620072014Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 30 0.928 0.448 0.03 2.256 1.089 0.42 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 40 0.596 0.03 1.456 0.56 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 30 0.447 0.03 1.093 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 30 0.447 0.03 1.093 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total

20362037203820222023203520272028202920302031203220332034202420252026

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

1.651.651.651.653.303.303.303.303.303.304.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.53

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.941.596.534.941.596.534.941.596.533.301.594.893.301.594.891.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.24

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.1 
Table 4.1.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.149 0.014 0.009 0.363 0.033 0.141 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 2011 19.9 0.149 0.008 0.009 0.363 0.018 0.141 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 2012 30.8 0.299 0.010 0.017 0.726 0.024 0.281 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 2013 39.8 0.299 0.008 0.017 0.726 0.018 0.281 1.025 0.026 0.298 0.576 0.014 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 2014 36.3 0.299 0.008 0.017 0.726 0.020 0.281 1.025 0.028 0.298 0.576 0.016 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 2015 44.3 0.596 0.013 0.035 1.456 0.033 0.563 2.052 0.046 0.598 1.137 0.026 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 2016 47.5 0.596 0.013 0.035 1.456 0.031 0.563 2.052 0.043 0.598 1.137 0.024 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 2017 42.6 0.596 0.014 0.035 1.456 0.034 0.563 2.052 0.048 0.598 1.137 0.027 4.472 0.369 0.009 6.535 3.559 2018 38.7 0.596 0.015 0.035 1.456 0.038 0.563 2.052 0.053 0.598 1.137 0.029 4.472 0.369 0.010 6.535 3.559 2019 31.9 0.596 0.019 0.035 1.456 0.046 0.563 2.052 0.064 0.598 1.137 0.036 4.472 0.369 0.012 6.535 3.559 2020 26.3 0.596 0.023 0.035 1.456 0.055 0.563 2.052 0.078 0.598 1.137 0.043 4.472 0.369 0.014 6.535 3.559 2021 21.7 0.596 0.027 0.035 1.456 0.067 0.563 2.052 0.095 0.598 1.137 0.052 4.472 0.369 0.017 6.535 3.559 2022 17.9 0.596 0.033 0.035 1.456 0.081 0.563 2.052 0.115 0.598 1.137 0.064 4.472 0.369 0.021 6.535 3.559 2023 14.9 0.596 0.040 0.035 1.456 0.098 0.563 2.052 0.138 0.598 1.137 0.076 4.472 0.369 0.025 6.535 3.559 2024 12.4 0.596 0.048 0.035 1.456 0.117 0.563 2.052 0.165 0.598 1.137 0.092 4.472 0.369 0.030 6.535 3.559 2025 8.2 0.447 0.055 0.026 1.093 0.133 0.423 1.540 0.188 0.449 0.850 0.104 3.341 0.276 0.034 4.887 2.666 2026 6.9 0.447 0.065 0.026 1.093 0.158 0.423 1.540 0.223 0.449 0.850 0.123 3.341 0.276 0.040 4.887 2.666 2027 3.5 0.298 0.085 0.017 0.730 0.208 0.282 1.028 0.294 0.300 0.562 0.161 2.209 0.183 0.052 3.240 1.772 2028 3.0 0.298 0.099 0.017 0.730 0.243 0.282 1.028 0.343 0.300 0.562 0.187 2.209 0.183 0.061 3.240 1.772 2029 2.6 0.298 0.115 0.017 0.730 0.281 0.282 1.028 0.395 0.300 0.562 0.216 2.209 0.183 0.070 3.240 1.772 203020312032203320342035203620372038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills A

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.2 
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.866 0.260 0.04 0.174 0.052 0.32

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 3 0.260 0.04 0.052 0.32

Shallow 1 13 0.866 1.126 0.18 0.174 0.226 1.39

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 13 1.126 0.18 0.226 1.39

Shallow 2 26 0.866 2.251 0.36 0.174 0.453 2.77

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 26 2.251 0.36 0.453 2.77

Shallow 2 36 0.866 3.117 0.49 0.174 0.627 3.84

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 36 3.117 0.49 0.627 3.84

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 3.983 0.63 0.801 4.91

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 3 0.884 0.265 0.04 0.177 0.053 0.33

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 49 4.248 0.67 0.854 5.24

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 13 0.884 1.150 0.18 0.177 0.231 1.41

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 59 5.132 0.81 1.032 6.32

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.017 0.95 1.209 7.41

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.026 0.64 0.809 4.96

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.026 0.64 0.809 4.96

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 2.034 0.32 0.408 2.50

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 2.034 0.32 0.408 2.50

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 23 0.884 2.034 0.32 0.177 0.408 2.50

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 2.034 0.32 0.408 2.50

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

2010 10.9 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

2011 19.9 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

2012 30.8 3.117 0.101 0.492 0.627 0.020 3.842 3.744 0.122 4.335

2013 39.8 3.983 0.100 0.629 0.801 0.020 4.910 4.783 0.120 5.539

2014 36.3 4.248 0.117 0.671 0.854 0.024 5.236 5.102 0.141 5.907

2015 44.3 5.132 0.116 0.811 1.032 0.023 6.323 6.164 0.139 7.134

2016 47.5 6.017 0.127 0.951 1.209 0.025 7.411 7.226 0.152 8.362

2017 42.6 6.017 0.141 0.951 1.209 0.028 7.411 7.226 0.170 8.362

2018 38.7 6.017 0.155 0.951 1.209 0.031 7.411 7.226 0.187 8.362

2019 31.9 6.017 0.189 0.951 1.209 0.038 7.411 7.226 0.227 8.362

2020 26.3 6.017 0.229 0.951 1.209 0.046 7.411 7.226 0.275 8.362

2021 21.7 6.017 0.277 0.951 1.209 0.056 7.411 7.226 0.333 8.362

2022 17.9 6.017 0.336 0.951 1.209 0.068 7.411 7.226 0.404 8.362

2023 14.9 6.017 0.404 0.951 1.209 0.081 7.411 7.226 0.485 8.362

2024 12.4 6.017 0.485 0.951 1.209 0.097 7.411 7.226 0.583 8.362

2025 8.2 4.026 0.491 0.636 0.809 0.099 4.956 4.834 0.590 5.592

2026 6.9 4.026 0.583 0.636 0.809 0.117 4.956 4.834 0.701 5.592

2027 3.5 2.034 0.581 0.321 0.408 0.117 2.501 2.442 0.698 2.823

2028 3.0 2.034 0.678 0.321 0.408 0.136 2.501 2.442 0.814 2.823

2029 2.6 2.034 0.782 0.321 0.408 0.157 2.501 2.442 0.939 2.823

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 36 0.500 0.180 0.09 3.500 1.260 5.67 1.500 0.540 10.80 1.000 0.360 72.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 36 0.180 0.09 1.260 5.67 0.540 10.80 0.360 72.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 49 0.245 0.12 1.715 7.72 0.735 14.70 0.490 98.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

2013 39.8 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

2014 36.3 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

2015 44.3 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2016 47.5 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

2017 42.6 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

2018 38.7 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

2019 31.9 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

2020 26.3 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

2021 21.7 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

2022 17.9 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

2023 14.9 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

2024 12.4 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

2025 8.2 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

2026 6.9 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

2027 3.5 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

2028 3.0 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

2029 2.6 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2016 47.5

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2016 47.5

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.306 0.064 0.192 1.788 0.225 19.800 0.724 21.652

Pipeline 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 0.082 2.928

Platforms 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 1.729 0.159 0.372 0.787 0.072 5.384 0.574 0.053 48.708 3.090 0.283 54.464

Pipeline 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 0.045 2.928

Platforms 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 2.893 0.145 0.570 1.130 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.448 4.767 0.240 70.019

Pipeline 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 0.058 5.857

Platforms 3.117 0.101 0.492 0.627 0.020 3.842 3.744 0.122 4.335

Production Wells 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 4.321 0.140 0.881 1.742 0.057 11.775 1.086 0.035 86.095 7.150 0.232 98.751

Pipeline 1.025 0.026 0.298 0.576 0.014 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 0.045 5.857

Platforms 3.983 0.100 0.629 0.801 0.020 4.910 4.783 0.120 5.539

Production Wells 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.237 0.132 1.043 2.066 0.052 14.418 1.336 0.034 109.095 8.640 0.217 124.555

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2012 30.8

2013 39.8

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.025 0.028 0.298 0.576 0.016 2.263 0.186 0.005 3.295 1.786 0.049 5.857

Platforms 4.248 0.117 0.671 0.854 0.024 5.236 5.102 0.141 5.907

Production Wells 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.518 0.152 1.092 2.165 0.060 15.217 1.411 0.039 115.995 9.093 0.251 132.304

Pipeline 2.052 0.046 0.598 1.137 0.026 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 0.080 11.605

Platforms 5.132 0.116 0.811 1.032 0.023 6.323 6.164 0.139 7.134

Production Wells 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 7.480 0.169 1.556 3.054 0.069 20.088 1.844 0.042 142.235 12.378 0.279 163.879

Pipeline 2.052 0.043 0.598 1.137 0.024 4.472 0.369 0.008 6.535 3.559 0.075 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.127 0.951 1.209 0.025 7.411 7.226 0.152 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.177 1.721 3.381 0.071 22.751 2.094 0.044 165.235 13.890 0.292 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.048 0.598 1.137 0.027 4.472 0.369 0.009 6.535 3.559 0.084 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.141 0.951 1.209 0.028 7.411 7.226 0.170 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.198 1.721 3.381 0.079 22.751 2.094 0.049 165.235 13.890 0.326 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.053 0.598 1.137 0.029 4.472 0.369 0.010 6.535 3.559 0.092 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.155 0.951 1.209 0.031 7.411 7.226 0.187 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.217 1.721 3.381 0.087 22.751 2.094 0.054 165.235 13.890 0.359 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.064 0.598 1.137 0.036 4.472 0.369 0.012 6.535 3.559 0.112 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.189 0.951 1.209 0.038 7.411 7.226 0.227 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.264 1.721 3.381 0.106 22.751 2.094 0.066 165.235 13.890 0.435 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.078 0.598 1.137 0.043 4.472 0.369 0.014 6.535 3.559 0.135 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.229 0.951 1.209 0.046 7.411 7.226 0.275 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.320 1.721 3.381 0.129 22.751 2.094 0.080 165.235 13.890 0.528 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.095 0.598 1.137 0.052 4.472 0.369 0.017 6.535 3.559 0.164 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.277 0.951 1.209 0.056 7.411 7.226 0.333 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.388 1.721 3.381 0.156 22.751 2.094 0.097 165.235 13.890 0.640 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.115 0.598 1.137 0.064 4.472 0.369 0.021 6.535 3.559 0.199 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.336 0.951 1.209 0.068 7.411 7.226 0.404 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.470 1.721 3.381 0.189 22.751 2.094 0.117 165.235 13.890 0.776 189.706

Pipeline 2.052 0.138 0.598 1.137 0.076 4.472 0.369 0.025 6.535 3.559 0.239 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.404 0.951 1.209 0.081 7.411 7.226 0.485 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.565 1.721 3.381 0.227 22.751 2.094 0.141 165.235 13.890 0.932 189.706

2016 47.5

2014 36.3

2015 44.3

2017 42.6

2018 38.7

2019 31.9

2020 26.3

2021 21.7

2022 17.9

2023 14.9

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.052 0.165 0.598 1.137 0.092 4.472 0.369 0.030 6.535 3.559 0.287 11.605

Platforms 6.017 0.485 0.951 1.209 0.097 7.411 7.226 0.583 8.362

Production Wells 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.414 0.679 1.721 3.381 0.273 22.751 2.094 0.169 165.235 13.890 1.120 189.706

Pipeline 1.540 0.188 0.449 0.850 0.104 3.341 0.276 0.034 4.887 2.666 0.325 8.677

Platforms 4.026 0.491 0.636 0.809 0.099 4.956 4.834 0.590 5.592

Production Wells 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.795 0.707 1.200 2.348 0.286 15.542 1.426 0.174 110.687 9.570 1.167 127.429

Pipeline 1.540 0.223 0.449 0.850 0.123 3.341 0.276 0.040 4.887 2.666 0.386 8.677

Platforms 4.026 0.583 0.636 0.809 0.117 4.956 4.834 0.701 5.592

Production Wells 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.795 0.840 1.200 2.348 0.340 15.542 1.426 0.207 110.687 9.570 1.387 127.429

Pipeline 1.028 0.294 0.300 0.562 0.161 2.209 0.183 0.052 3.240 1.772 0.506 5.748

Platforms 2.034 0.581 0.321 0.408 0.117 2.501 2.442 0.698 2.823

Production Wells 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.177 0.908 0.679 1.315 0.376 8.333 0.758 0.217 56.140 5.250 1.500 65.151

Pipeline 1.028 0.343 0.300 0.562 0.187 2.209 0.183 0.061 3.240 1.772 0.591 5.748

Platforms 2.034 0.678 0.321 0.408 0.136 2.501 2.442 0.814 2.823

Production Wells 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.177 1.059 0.679 1.315 0.438 8.333 0.758 0.253 56.140 5.250 1.750 65.151

Pipeline 1.028 0.395 0.300 0.562 0.216 2.209 0.183 0.070 3.240 1.772 0.682 5.748

Platforms 2.034 0.782 0.321 0.408 0.157 2.501 2.442 0.939 2.823

Production Wells 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.177 1.222 0.679 1.315 0.506 8.333 0.758 0.292 56.140 5.250 2.019 65.151

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2024 12.4

2025 8.2

2026 6.9

2027 3.5

2028 3.0

2029 2.6

2030

2031

2032

2033

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2008 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2009 0.31 0.064 0.19 1.788 0.225 19.80 0.724 21.652

2010 10.9 1.73 0.159 0.372 0.79 0.072 5.384 0.574 0.053 48.71 3.090 0.283 54.464

2011 19.9 2.89 0.145 0.570 1.13 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.45 4.767 0.240 70.019

2012 30.8 4.32 0.140 0.881 1.74 0.057 11.775 1.086 0.035 86.10 7.150 0.232 98.751

2013 39.8 5.24 0.132 1.043 2.07 0.052 14.418 1.336 0.034 109.10 8.640 0.217 124.555

2014 36.3 5.52 0.152 1.092 2.16 0.060 15.217 1.411 0.039 116.00 9.093 0.251 132.304

2015 44.3 7.48 0.169 1.556 3.05 0.069 20.088 1.844 0.042 142.23 12.378 0.279 163.879

2016 47.5 8.41 0.177 1.721 3.38 0.071 22.751 2.094 0.044 165.23 13.890 0.292 189.706

2017 42.6 8.41 0.198 1.721 3.38 0.079 22.751 2.094 0.049 165.23 13.890 0.326 189.706

2018 38.7 8.41 0.217 1.721 3.38 0.087 22.751 2.094 0.054 165.23 13.890 0.359 189.706

2019 31.9 8.41 0.264 1.721 3.38 0.106 22.751 2.094 0.066 165.23 13.890 0.435 189.706

2020 26.3 8.41 0.320 1.721 3.38 0.129 22.751 2.094 0.080 165.23 13.890 0.528 189.706

2021 21.7 8.41 0.388 1.721 3.38 0.156 22.751 2.094 0.097 165.23 13.890 0.640 189.706

2022 17.9 8.41 0.470 1.721 3.38 0.189 22.751 2.094 0.117 165.23 13.890 0.776 189.706

2023 14.9 8.41 0.565 1.721 3.38 0.227 22.751 2.094 0.141 165.23 13.890 0.932 189.706

2024 12.4 8.41 0.679 1.721 3.38 0.273 22.751 2.094 0.169 165.23 13.890 1.120 189.706

2025 8.2 5.80 0.707 1.200 2.35 0.286 15.542 1.426 0.174 110.69 9.570 1.167 127.429

2026 6.9 5.80 0.840 1.200 2.35 0.340 15.542 1.426 0.207 110.69 9.570 1.387 127.429

2027 3.5 3.18 0.908 0.679 1.31 0.376 8.333 0.758 0.217 56.14 5.250 1.500 65.151

2028 3.0 3.18 1.059 0.679 1.31 0.438 8.333 0.758 0.253 56.14 5.250 1.750 65.151

2029 2.6 3.18 1.222 0.679 1.31 0.506 8.333 0.758 0.292 56.14 5.250 2.019 65.151

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.1.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2009 0.047 0.023 0.140 1.467 0.225 19.800 0.412 21.291

2010 10.9 0.091 0.008 0.046 0.273 0.025 2.865 0.481 0.044 47.060 0.845 0.078 49.970

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.180 0.006 0.090 0.540 0.018 5.670 0.900 0.029 82.800 1.620 0.053 88.560

2013 39.8 0.230 0.006 0.115 0.690 0.017 7.245 1.150 0.029 105.800 2.070 0.052 113.160

2014 36.3 0.245 0.007 0.123 0.735 0.020 7.718 1.225 0.034 112.700 2.205 0.061 120.540

2015 44.3 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2016 47.5 0.345 0.007 0.173 1.035 0.022 10.868 1.725 0.036 158.700 3.105 0.065 169.740

2017 42.6 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.024 10.868 1.725 0.040 158.700 3.105 0.073 169.740

2018 38.7 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.080 169.740

2019 31.9 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.054 158.700 3.105 0.097 169.740

2020 26.3 0.345 0.013 0.173 1.035 0.039 10.868 1.725 0.066 158.700 3.105 0.118 169.740

2021 21.7 0.345 0.016 0.173 1.035 0.048 10.868 1.725 0.079 158.700 3.105 0.143 169.740

2022 17.9 0.345 0.019 0.173 1.035 0.058 10.868 1.725 0.096 158.700 3.105 0.173 169.740

2023 14.9 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.069 10.868 1.725 0.116 158.700 3.105 0.208 169.740

2024 12.4 0.345 0.028 0.173 1.035 0.083 10.868 1.725 0.139 158.700 3.105 0.250 169.740

2025 8.2 0.230 0.028 0.115 0.690 0.084 7.245 1.150 0.140 105.800 2.070 0.252 113.160

2026 6.9 0.230 0.033 0.115 0.690 0.100 7.245 1.150 0.167 105.800 2.070 0.300 113.160

2027 3.5 0.115 0.033 0.058 0.345 0.099 3.623 0.575 0.164 52.900 1.035 0.296 56.580

2028 3.0 0.115 0.038 0.058 0.345 0.115 3.623 0.575 0.192 52.900 1.035 0.345 56.580

2029 2.6 0.115 0.044 0.058 0.345 0.133 3.623 0.575 0.221 52.900 1.035 0.398 56.580

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsT.4.1.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - P/L

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - P/L

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency - Wells

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_1 Sale 1.xlsF.4.1.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale 1 Spill Index - Wells

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 15 0.224 0.01 0.545 0.21 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

201620092010201120122013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2015200820042005200620072014Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 35 0.522 0.03 1.274 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 20 0.298 0.02 0.730 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total

20362037203820222023203520272028202920302031203220332034202420252026

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.474.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.71

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

4.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.714.121.595.711.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.241.651.593.24

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.1 
Table 4.2.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013 10.9 0.224 0.021 0.013 0.545 0.050 0.211 0.768 0.071 0.224 0.432 0.040 1.697 0.140 0.013 2.471 1.340 2014 19.9 0.224 0.011 0.013 0.545 0.027 0.211 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 2015 19.9 0.224 0.011 0.013 0.545 0.027 0.211 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 2016 19.9 0.224 0.011 0.013 0.545 0.027 0.211 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 2017 34.8 0.635 0.018 0.037 1.473 0.042 0.546 2.108 0.061 0.583 1.071 0.031 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 2018 44.2 0.635 0.014 0.037 1.473 0.033 0.546 2.108 0.048 0.583 1.071 0.024 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 2019 41.9 0.635 0.015 0.037 1.473 0.035 0.546 2.108 0.050 0.583 1.071 0.026 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 2020 39.9 0.635 0.016 0.037 1.473 0.037 0.546 2.108 0.053 0.583 1.071 0.027 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 2021 38.3 0.635 0.017 0.037 1.473 0.038 0.546 2.108 0.055 0.583 1.071 0.028 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 2022 32.7 0.635 0.019 0.037 1.473 0.045 0.546 2.108 0.064 0.583 1.071 0.033 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 2023 27.9 0.635 0.023 0.037 1.473 0.053 0.546 2.108 0.076 0.583 1.071 0.038 4.250 0.342 0.012 5.995 3.522 2024 23.8 0.635 0.027 0.037 1.473 0.062 0.546 2.108 0.089 0.583 1.071 0.045 4.250 0.342 0.014 5.995 3.522 2025 20.3 0.635 0.031 0.037 1.473 0.073 0.546 2.108 0.104 0.583 1.071 0.053 4.250 0.342 0.017 5.995 3.522 2026 17.3 0.635 0.037 0.037 1.473 0.085 0.546 2.108 0.122 0.583 1.071 0.062 4.250 0.342 0.020 5.995 3.522 2027 14.8 0.635 0.043 0.037 1.473 0.100 0.546 2.108 0.142 0.583 1.071 0.072 4.250 0.342 0.023 5.995 3.522 2028 10.7 0.411 0.038 0.024 0.928 0.087 0.335 1.340 0.125 0.359 0.639 0.060 2.552 0.203 0.019 3.524 2.182 2029 9.2 0.411 0.045 0.024 0.928 0.101 0.335 1.340 0.146 0.359 0.639 0.069 2.552 0.203 0.022 3.524 2.182 2030 7.9 0.411 0.052 0.024 0.928 0.118 0.335 1.340 0.170 0.359 0.639 0.081 2.552 0.203 0.026 3.524 2.182 2031 6.8 0.411 0.061 0.017 0.928 0.137 0.282 1.340 0.197 0.300 0.639 0.094 2.209 0.203 0.030 3.240 2.182 2032 5.8 0.411 0.071 0.024 0.928 0.160 0.335 1.340 0.231 0.359 0.639 0.110 2.552 0.203 0.035 3.524 2.182 2033 5.0 0.411 0.082 0.024 0.928 0.186 0.335 1.340 0.268 0.359 0.639 0.128 2.552 0.203 0.041 3.524 2.182 2034 4.3 0.411 0.096 0.024 0.928 0.216 0.335 1.340 0.312 0.359 0.639 0.149 2.552 0.203 0.047 3.524 2.182 2035 3.7 0.411 0.111 0.024 0.928 0.251 0.335 1.340 0.362 0.359 0.639 0.173 2.552 0.203 0.055 3.524 2.182 203620372038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.2 
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.866 0.260 0.04 0.174 0.052 0.32

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 3 0.260 0.04 0.052 0.32

Shallow 1 13 0.866 1.126 0.18 0.174 0.226 1.39

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 13 1.126 0.18 0.226 1.39

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 1.991 0.31 0.400 2.45

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 23 1.991 0.31 0.400 2.45

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 1 3 0.884 0.265 0.04 0.177 0.053 0.33

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 26 2.257 0.36 0.454 2.78

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 16 0.884 1.415 0.22 0.177 0.284 1.74

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 39 3.406 0.54 0.684 4.19

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 36 0.884 3.184 0.50 0.177 0.639 3.92

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 59 5.175 0.82 1.039 6.37

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 69 6.060 0.96 1.217 7.46

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 46 0.884 4.069 0.64 0.177 0.816 5.00

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 46 4.069 0.64 0.816 5.00

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

2013 10.9 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

2014 19.9 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

2015 19.9 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

2016 19.9 2.257 0.113 0.357 0.454 0.023 2.781 2.710 0.136 3.138

2017 34.8 3.406 0.098 0.538 0.684 0.020 4.195 4.091 0.118 4.733

2018 44.2 5.175 0.117 0.818 1.039 0.024 6.370 6.215 0.141 7.188

2019 41.9 6.060 0.145 0.957 1.217 0.029 7.457 7.276 0.174 8.415

2020 39.9 6.060 0.152 0.957 1.217 0.030 7.457 7.276 0.182 8.415

2021 38.3 6.060 0.158 0.957 1.217 0.032 7.457 7.276 0.190 8.415

2022 32.7 6.060 0.185 0.957 1.217 0.037 7.457 7.276 0.223 8.415

2023 27.9 6.060 0.217 0.957 1.217 0.044 7.457 7.276 0.261 8.415

2024 23.8 6.060 0.255 0.957 1.217 0.051 7.457 7.276 0.306 8.415

2025 20.3 6.060 0.299 0.957 1.217 0.060 7.457 7.276 0.358 8.415

2026 17.3 6.060 0.350 0.957 1.217 0.070 7.457 7.276 0.421 8.415

2027 14.8 6.060 0.409 0.957 1.217 0.082 7.457 7.276 0.492 8.415

2028 10.7 4.069 0.380 0.643 0.816 0.076 5.003 4.885 0.457 5.645

2029 9.2 4.069 0.442 0.643 0.816 0.089 5.003 4.885 0.531 5.645

2030 7.9 4.069 0.515 0.643 0.816 0.103 5.003 4.885 0.618 5.645

2031 6.8 4.069 0.598 0.643 0.816 0.120 5.003 4.885 0.718 5.645

2032 5.8 4.069 0.701 0.643 0.816 0.141 5.003 4.885 0.842 5.645

2033 5.0 4.069 0.814 0.643 0.816 0.163 5.003 4.885 0.977 5.645

2034 4.3 4.069 0.946 0.643 0.816 0.190 5.003 4.885 1.136 5.645

2035 3.7 4.069 1.100 0.643 0.816 0.221 5.003 4.885 1.320 5.645

2036

2037

2038

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 23 0.115 0.06 0.805 3.62 0.345 6.90 0.230 46.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 16 0.500 0.080 0.04 3.500 0.560 2.52 1.500 0.240 4.80 1.000 0.160 32.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 36 0.500 0.180 0.09 3.500 1.260 5.67 1.500 0.540 10.80 1.000 0.360 72.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 69 0.345 0.17 2.415 10.87 1.035 20.70 0.690 138.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 46 0.230 0.12 1.610 7.25 0.690 13.80 0.460 92.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2013 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2014 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2015 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2016 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2017 34.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

2018 44.2 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2019 41.9 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

2020 39.9 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

2021 38.3 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

2022 32.7 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

2023 27.9 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

2024 23.8 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

2025 20.3 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

2026 17.3 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

2027 14.8 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

2028 10.7 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

2029 9.2 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

2030 7.9 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

2031 6.8 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

2032 5.8 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

2033 5.0 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

2034 4.3 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

2035 3.7 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2013 10.9 0.032 0.003 0.016 0.095 0.009 0.995 0.150 0.014 12.900 0.277 0.025 13.911

2014 19.9

2015 19.9

2016 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 6.8

2032 5.8

2033 5.0

2034 4.3

2035 3.7

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010

2011

2012

2013 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2014 19.9 0.026 0.001 0.013 0.078 0.004 0.817 0.156 0.008 17.160 0.260 0.013 17.990

2015 19.9

2016 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 6.8

2032 5.8

2033 5.0

2034 4.3

2035 3.7

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.338 0.080 0.287 2.783 0.375 32.700 1.000 35.563

Pipeline 0.768 0.071 0.224 0.432 0.040 1.697 0.140 0.013 2.471 1.340 0.123 4.392

Platforms 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.003 0.016 0.095 0.009 0.995 0.150 0.014 12.900 0.277 0.025 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 2.017 0.185 0.463 1.026 0.094 6.945 0.771 0.071 62.431 3.813 0.350 69.839

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013 10.9

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 0.067 4.392

Platforms 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

Production Wells 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.001 0.013 0.078 0.004 0.817 0.156 0.008 17.160 0.260 0.013 17.990

Total 2.901 0.146 0.609 1.255 0.063 8.592 0.871 0.044 72.531 5.027 0.253 81.732

Pipeline 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 0.067 4.392

Platforms 1.991 0.100 0.315 0.400 0.020 2.455 2.392 0.120 2.769

Production Wells 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 2.875 0.144 0.596 1.177 0.059 7.775 0.715 0.036 55.371 4.767 0.240 63.742

Pipeline 0.768 0.039 0.224 0.432 0.022 1.697 0.140 0.007 2.471 1.340 0.067 4.392

Platforms 2.257 0.113 0.357 0.454 0.023 2.781 2.710 0.136 3.138

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.155 0.159 0.645 1.275 0.064 8.573 0.790 0.040 62.271 5.220 0.262 71.490

Pipeline 2.108 0.061 0.583 1.071 0.031 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 0.101 10.828

Platforms 3.406 0.098 0.538 0.684 0.020 4.195 4.091 0.118 4.733

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.710 0.164 1.219 2.340 0.067 14.587 1.317 0.038 95.695 9.367 0.269 111.501

Pipeline 2.108 0.048 0.583 1.071 0.024 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 0.080 10.828

Platforms 5.175 0.117 0.818 1.039 0.024 6.370 6.215 0.141 7.188

Production Wells 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 7.579 0.171 1.548 2.995 0.068 19.912 1.817 0.041 141.695 12.391 0.280 163.156

Pipeline 2.108 0.050 0.583 1.071 0.026 4.250 0.342 0.008 5.995 3.522 0.084 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.145 0.957 1.217 0.029 7.457 7.276 0.174 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.203 1.713 3.322 0.079 22.575 2.067 0.049 164.695 13.903 0.332 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.053 0.583 1.071 0.027 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 0.088 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.152 0.957 1.217 0.030 7.457 7.276 0.182 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.213 1.713 3.322 0.083 22.575 2.067 0.052 164.695 13.903 0.348 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.055 0.583 1.071 0.028 4.250 0.342 0.009 5.995 3.522 0.092 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.158 0.957 1.217 0.032 7.457 7.276 0.190 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.222 1.713 3.322 0.087 22.575 2.067 0.054 164.695 13.903 0.363 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.064 0.583 1.071 0.033 4.250 0.342 0.010 5.995 3.522 0.108 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.185 0.957 1.217 0.037 7.457 7.276 0.223 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.260 1.713 3.322 0.102 22.575 2.067 0.063 164.695 13.903 0.425 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.076 0.583 1.071 0.038 4.250 0.342 0.012 5.995 3.522 0.126 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.217 0.957 1.217 0.044 7.457 7.276 0.261 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.305 1.713 3.322 0.119 22.575 2.067 0.074 164.695 13.903 0.498 188.983

2016 19.9

2014 19.9

2015 19.9

2017 34.8

2018 44.2

2019 41.9

2020 39.9

2021 38.3

2022 32.7

2023 27.9

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 2.108 0.089 0.583 1.071 0.045 4.250 0.342 0.014 5.995 3.522 0.148 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.255 0.957 1.217 0.051 7.457 7.276 0.306 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.358 1.713 3.322 0.140 22.575 2.067 0.087 164.695 13.903 0.584 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.104 0.583 1.071 0.053 4.250 0.342 0.017 5.995 3.522 0.173 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.299 0.957 1.217 0.060 7.457 7.276 0.358 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.419 1.713 3.322 0.164 22.575 2.067 0.102 164.695 13.903 0.685 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.122 0.583 1.071 0.062 4.250 0.342 0.020 5.995 3.522 0.204 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.350 0.957 1.217 0.070 7.457 7.276 0.421 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.492 1.713 3.322 0.192 22.575 2.067 0.119 164.695 13.903 0.804 188.983

Pipeline 2.108 0.142 0.583 1.071 0.072 4.250 0.342 0.023 5.995 3.522 0.238 10.828

Platforms 6.060 0.409 0.957 1.217 0.082 7.457 7.276 0.492 8.415

Production Wells 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.513 0.575 1.713 3.322 0.224 22.575 2.067 0.140 164.695 13.903 0.939 188.983

Pipeline 1.340 0.125 0.359 0.639 0.060 2.552 0.203 0.019 3.524 2.182 0.204 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.380 0.643 0.816 0.076 5.003 4.885 0.457 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.527 1.117 2.145 0.200 14.800 1.353 0.126 109.324 9.136 0.854 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.146 0.359 0.639 0.069 2.552 0.203 0.022 3.524 2.182 0.237 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.442 0.643 0.816 0.089 5.003 4.885 0.531 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.613 1.117 2.145 0.233 14.800 1.353 0.147 109.324 9.136 0.993 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.170 0.359 0.639 0.081 2.552 0.203 0.026 3.524 2.182 0.276 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.515 0.643 0.816 0.103 5.003 4.885 0.618 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.714 1.117 2.145 0.272 14.800 1.353 0.171 109.324 9.136 1.157 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.197 0.300 0.639 0.094 2.209 0.203 0.030 3.240 2.182 0.321 5.748

Platforms 4.069 0.598 0.643 0.816 0.120 5.003 4.885 0.718 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.829 1.057 2.145 0.315 14.457 1.353 0.199 109.040 9.136 1.344 124.554

Pipeline 1.340 0.231 0.359 0.639 0.110 2.552 0.203 0.035 3.524 2.182 0.376 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.701 0.643 0.816 0.141 5.003 4.885 0.842 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 0.972 1.117 2.145 0.370 14.800 1.353 0.233 109.324 9.136 1.575 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.268 0.359 0.639 0.128 2.552 0.203 0.041 3.524 2.182 0.436 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.814 0.643 0.816 0.163 5.003 4.885 0.977 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 1.128 1.117 2.145 0.429 14.800 1.353 0.271 109.324 9.136 1.827 125.241

2024 23.8

2025 20.3

2026 17.3

2027 14.8

2028 10.7

2029 9.2

2030 7.9

2031 5.8

2032 5.0

2033 3.7

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.340 0.312 0.359 0.639 0.149 2.552 0.203 0.047 3.524 2.182 0.507 6.436

Platforms 4.069 0.946 0.643 0.816 0.190 5.003 4.885 1.136 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 1.311 1.117 2.145 0.499 14.800 1.353 0.315 109.324 9.136 2.125 125.241

Pipeline 1.340 0.362 0.359 0.639 0.173 2.552 0.203 0.055 3.524 2.182 0.590 6.436

Platforms 4.069 1.100 0.643 0.816 0.221 5.003 4.885 1.320 5.645

Production Wells 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.639 1.524 1.117 2.145 0.580 14.800 1.353 0.366 109.324 9.136 2.469 125.241

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2008 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2009 0.03 0.013 0.08 0.817 0.156 17.16 0.260 17.990

2010 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.34 0.080 0.29 2.783 0.375 32.70 1.000 35.563

2013 10.9 2.02 0.185 0.463 1.03 0.094 6.945 0.771 0.071 62.43 3.813 0.350 69.839

2014 19.9 2.90 0.146 0.609 1.26 0.063 8.592 0.871 0.044 72.53 5.027 0.253 81.732

2015 19.9 2.87 0.144 0.596 1.18 0.059 7.775 0.715 0.036 55.37 4.767 0.240 63.742

2016 19.9 3.16 0.159 0.645 1.28 0.064 8.573 0.790 0.040 62.27 5.220 0.262 71.490

2017 34.8 5.71 0.164 1.219 2.34 0.067 14.587 1.317 0.038 95.70 9.367 0.269 111.501

2018 44.2 7.58 0.171 1.548 3.00 0.068 19.912 1.817 0.041 141.70 12.391 0.280 163.156

2019 41.9 8.51 0.203 1.713 3.32 0.079 22.575 2.067 0.049 164.70 13.903 0.332 188.983

2020 39.9 8.51 0.213 1.713 3.32 0.083 22.575 2.067 0.052 164.70 13.903 0.348 188.983

2021 38.3 8.51 0.222 1.713 3.32 0.087 22.575 2.067 0.054 164.70 13.903 0.363 188.983

2022 32.7 8.51 0.260 1.713 3.32 0.102 22.575 2.067 0.063 164.70 13.903 0.425 188.983

2023 27.9 8.51 0.305 1.713 3.32 0.119 22.575 2.067 0.074 164.70 13.903 0.498 188.983

2024 23.8 8.51 0.358 1.713 3.32 0.140 22.575 2.067 0.087 164.70 13.903 0.584 188.983

2025 20.3 8.51 0.419 1.713 3.32 0.164 22.575 2.067 0.102 164.70 13.903 0.685 188.983

2026 17.3 8.51 0.492 1.713 3.32 0.192 22.575 2.067 0.119 164.70 13.903 0.804 188.983

2027 14.8 8.51 0.575 1.713 3.32 0.224 22.575 2.067 0.140 164.70 13.903 0.939 188.983

2028 10.7 5.64 0.527 1.117 2.15 0.200 14.800 1.353 0.126 109.32 9.136 0.854 125.241

2029 9.2 5.64 0.613 1.117 2.15 0.233 14.800 1.353 0.147 109.32 9.136 0.993 125.241

2030 7.9 5.64 0.714 1.117 2.15 0.272 14.800 1.353 0.171 109.32 9.136 1.157 125.241

2031 6.8 5.64 0.829 1.057 2.15 0.315 14.457 1.353 0.199 109.04 9.136 1.344 124.554

2032 5.8 5.64 0.972 1.117 2.15 0.370 14.800 1.353 0.233 109.32 9.136 1.575 125.241

2033 5.0 5.64 1.128 1.117 2.15 0.429 14.800 1.353 0.271 109.32 9.136 1.827 125.241

2034 4.3 5.64 1.311 1.117 2.15 0.499 14.800 1.353 0.315 109.32 9.136 2.125 125.241

2035 3.7 5.64 1.524 1.117 2.15 0.580 14.800 1.353 0.366 109.32 9.136 2.469 125.241

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.2.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2008 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.078 0.039 0.235 2.462 0.375 32.700 0.688 35.202

2013 10.9 0.123 0.011 0.061 0.368 0.034 3.860 0.631 0.058 59.960 1.122 0.103 63.881

2014 19.9 0.141 0.007 0.071 0.423 0.021 4.440 0.731 0.037 70.060 1.295 0.065 74.570

2015 19.9 0.115 0.006 0.058 0.345 0.017 3.623 0.575 0.029 52.900 1.035 0.052 56.580

2016 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2017 34.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.017 6.143 0.975 0.028 89.700 1.755 0.050 95.940

2018 44.2 0.295 0.007 0.148 0.885 0.020 9.293 1.475 0.033 135.700 2.655 0.060 145.140

2019 41.9 0.345 0.008 0.173 1.035 0.025 10.868 1.725 0.041 158.700 3.105 0.074 169.740

2020 39.9 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.026 10.868 1.725 0.043 158.700 3.105 0.078 169.740

2021 38.3 0.345 0.009 0.173 1.035 0.027 10.868 1.725 0.045 158.700 3.105 0.081 169.740

2022 32.7 0.345 0.011 0.173 1.035 0.032 10.868 1.725 0.053 158.700 3.105 0.095 169.740

2023 27.9 0.345 0.012 0.173 1.035 0.037 10.868 1.725 0.062 158.700 3.105 0.111 169.740

2024 23.8 0.345 0.014 0.173 1.035 0.043 10.868 1.725 0.072 158.700 3.105 0.130 169.740

2025 20.3 0.345 0.017 0.173 1.035 0.051 10.868 1.725 0.085 158.700 3.105 0.153 169.740

2026 17.3 0.345 0.020 0.173 1.035 0.060 10.868 1.725 0.100 158.700 3.105 0.179 169.740

2027 14.8 0.345 0.023 0.173 1.035 0.070 10.868 1.725 0.117 158.700 3.105 0.210 169.740

2028 10.7 0.230 0.021 0.115 0.690 0.064 7.245 1.150 0.107 105.800 2.070 0.193 113.160

2029 9.2 0.230 0.025 0.115 0.690 0.075 7.245 1.150 0.125 105.800 2.070 0.225 113.160

2030 7.9 0.230 0.029 0.115 0.690 0.087 7.245 1.150 0.146 105.800 2.070 0.262 113.160

2031 6.8 0.230 0.034 0.115 0.690 0.101 7.245 1.150 0.169 105.800 2.070 0.304 113.160

2032 5.8 0.230 0.040 0.115 0.690 0.119 7.245 1.150 0.198 105.800 2.070 0.357 113.160

2033 5.0 0.230 0.046 0.115 0.690 0.138 7.245 1.150 0.230 105.800 2.070 0.414 113.160

2034 4.3 0.230 0.053 0.115 0.690 0.160 7.245 1.150 0.267 105.800 2.070 0.481 113.160

2035 3.7 0.230 0.062 0.115 0.690 0.186 7.245 1.150 0.311 105.800 2.070 0.559 113.160

2036

2037

2038

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsT.4.2.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - P/L

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - P/L

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency - Wells

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_2 Sale 2.xlsF.4.2.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale 2 Spill Index - Wells

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 

20172018201920202021

Water 

Depth

201620092010201120122013

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2015200820042005200620072014Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 

20362037203820222023203520272028202920302031203220332034202420252026

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.86

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.86

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.1 
Table 4.3.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 30.8 0.560 0.018 0.033 1.293 0.042 0.476 1.854 0.060 0.509 0.920 0.030 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 2020 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2021 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2022 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2023 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2024 38.6 0.560 0.015 0.033 1.293 0.034 0.476 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 2025 34.0 0.560 0.016 0.033 1.293 0.038 0.476 1.854 0.055 0.509 0.920 0.027 3.657 0.294 0.009 5.144 3.068 2026 29.9 0.560 0.019 0.033 1.293 0.043 0.476 1.854 0.062 0.509 0.920 0.031 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 2027 26.3 0.560 0.021 0.033 1.293 0.049 0.476 1.854 0.070 0.509 0.920 0.035 3.657 0.294 0.011 5.144 3.068 2028 23.2 0.560 0.024 0.033 1.293 0.056 0.476 1.854 0.080 0.509 0.920 0.040 3.657 0.294 0.013 5.144 3.068 2029 20.4 0.560 0.027 0.033 1.293 0.063 0.476 1.854 0.091 0.509 0.920 0.045 3.657 0.294 0.014 5.144 3.068 2030 17.9 0.560 0.031 0.033 1.293 0.072 0.476 1.854 0.104 0.509 0.920 0.051 3.657 0.294 0.016 5.144 3.068 2031 15.8 0.560 0.035 0.026 1.293 0.082 0.424 1.854 0.117 0.449 0.920 0.058 3.314 0.294 0.019 4.859 3.068 2032 13.9 0.560 0.040 0.033 1.293 0.093 0.476 1.854 0.133 0.509 0.920 0.066 3.657 0.294 0.021 5.144 3.068 2033 12.2 0.560 0.046 0.033 1.293 0.106 0.476 1.854 0.152 0.509 0.920 0.075 3.657 0.294 0.024 5.144 3.068 2034 10.8 0.560 0.052 0.033 1.293 0.120 0.476 1.854 0.172 0.509 0.920 0.085 3.657 0.294 0.027 5.144 3.068 2035 9.5 0.560 0.059 0.033 1.293 0.136 0.476 1.854 0.195 0.509 0.920 0.097 3.657 0.294 0.031 5.144 3.068 2036 8.3 0.560 0.068 0.033 1.293 0.156 0.476 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 2037 7.3 0.560 0.077 0.033 1.293 0.177 0.476 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 2038 6.5 0.560 0.086 0.033 1.293 0.199 0.476 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.2 
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 1 4 0.884 0.354 0.06 0.177 0.071 0.44

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 4 0.354 0.06 0.071 0.44

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 18 0.884 1.592 0.25 0.177 0.319 1.96

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 18 1.592 0.25 0.319 1.96

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 38 0.884 3.361 0.53 0.177 0.674 4.13

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 38 3.361 0.53 0.674 4.13

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 58 0.884 5.130 0.81 0.177 1.029 6.31

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 58 5.130 0.81 1.029 6.31

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.354 0.056 0.071 0.435 0.425 0.491

2019 30.8 1.592 0.052 0.252 0.319 0.010 1.958 1.911 0.062 2.209

2020 38.6 3.361 0.087 0.531 0.674 0.017 4.133 4.035 0.105 4.664

2021 38.6 5.130 0.133 0.811 1.029 0.027 6.308 6.159 0.160 7.118

2022 38.6 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

2023 38.6 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

2024 38.6 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

2025 34.0 6.014 0.177 0.950 1.206 0.035 7.395 7.221 0.212 8.346

2026 29.9 6.014 0.201 0.950 1.206 0.040 7.395 7.221 0.242 8.346

2027 26.3 6.014 0.229 0.950 1.206 0.046 7.395 7.221 0.275 8.346

2028 23.2 6.014 0.259 0.950 1.206 0.052 7.395 7.221 0.311 8.346

2029 20.4 6.014 0.295 0.950 1.206 0.059 7.395 7.221 0.354 8.346

2030 17.9 6.014 0.336 0.950 1.206 0.067 7.395 7.221 0.403 8.346

2031 15.8 6.014 0.381 0.950 1.206 0.076 7.395 7.221 0.457 8.346

2032 13.9 6.014 0.433 0.950 1.206 0.087 7.395 7.221 0.519 8.346

2033 12.2 6.014 0.493 0.950 1.206 0.099 7.395 7.221 0.592 8.346

2034 10.8 6.014 0.557 0.950 1.206 0.112 7.395 7.221 0.669 8.346

2035 9.5 6.014 0.633 0.950 1.206 0.127 7.395 7.221 0.760 8.346

2036 8.3 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

2037 7.3 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

2038 6.5 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 4 0.500 0.020 0.01 3.500 0.140 0.63 1.500 0.060 1.20 1.000 0.040 8.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 4 0.020 0.01 0.140 0.63 0.060 1.20 0.040 8.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 18 0.500 0.090 0.05 3.500 0.630 2.84 1.500 0.270 5.40 1.000 0.180 36.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 18 0.090 0.05 0.630 2.84 0.270 5.40 0.180 36.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 38 0.500 0.190 0.10 3.500 1.330 5.99 1.500 0.570 11.40 1.000 0.380 76.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 38 0.190 0.10 1.330 5.99 0.570 11.40 0.380 76.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 58 0.500 0.290 0.15 3.500 2.030 9.14 1.500 0.870 17.40 1.000 0.580 116.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 58 0.290 0.15 2.030 9.14 0.870 17.40 0.580 116.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 0.020 0.010 0.060 0.630 0.100 9.200 0.180 9.840

2019 30.8 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

2020 38.6 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

2021 38.6 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

2022 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2023 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2024 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2025 34.0 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

2026 29.9 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

2027 26.3 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

2028 23.2 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

2029 20.4 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

2030 17.9 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

2031 15.8 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

2032 13.9 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

2033 12.2 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

2034 10.8 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

2035 9.5 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2017

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2013 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2014

2015 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2016

2017 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2018 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2014 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2015 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2016

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.045 0.022 0.134 1.404 0.228 21.480 0.407 22.906

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms 0.354 0.056 0.071 0.435 0.425 0.491

Production Wells 0.020 0.010 0.060 0.630 0.100 9.200 0.180 9.840

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.405 0.082 0.226 2.060 0.250 22.100 0.881 24.242

Pipeline 1.854 0.060 0.509 0.920 0.030 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 0.100 9.310

Platforms 1.592 0.052 0.252 0.319 0.010 1.958 1.911 0.062 2.209

Production Wells 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 3.536 0.115 0.806 1.509 0.049 8.449 0.744 0.024 46.544 5.789 0.188 55.799

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 3.361 0.087 0.531 0.674 0.017 4.133 4.035 0.105 4.664

Production Wells 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 5.405 0.140 1.135 2.164 0.056 13.774 1.244 0.032 92.544 8.813 0.228 107.453

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 5.130 0.133 0.811 1.029 0.027 6.308 6.159 0.160 7.118

Production Wells 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 7.274 0.188 1.464 2.819 0.073 19.099 1.744 0.045 138.544 11.837 0.307 159.108

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.213 1.629 3.146 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.544 13.349 0.346 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.213 1.629 3.146 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.544 13.349 0.346 184.935

2016

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019 30.8

2020 38.6

2021 38.6

2022 38.6

2023 38.6

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.854 0.048 0.509 0.920 0.024 3.657 0.294 0.008 5.144 3.068 0.079 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.156 0.950 1.206 0.031 7.395 7.221 0.187 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.213 1.629 3.146 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.544 13.349 0.346 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.055 0.509 0.920 0.027 3.657 0.294 0.009 5.144 3.068 0.090 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.177 0.950 1.206 0.035 7.395 7.221 0.212 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.241 1.629 3.146 0.093 21.762 1.994 0.059 161.544 13.349 0.393 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.062 0.509 0.920 0.031 3.657 0.294 0.010 5.144 3.068 0.103 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.201 0.950 1.206 0.040 7.395 7.221 0.242 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.275 1.629 3.146 0.105 21.762 1.994 0.067 161.544 13.349 0.446 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.070 0.509 0.920 0.035 3.657 0.294 0.011 5.144 3.068 0.117 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.229 0.950 1.206 0.046 7.395 7.221 0.275 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.312 1.629 3.146 0.120 21.762 1.994 0.076 161.544 13.349 0.508 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.080 0.509 0.920 0.040 3.657 0.294 0.013 5.144 3.068 0.132 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.259 0.950 1.206 0.052 7.395 7.221 0.311 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.354 1.629 3.146 0.136 21.762 1.994 0.086 161.544 13.349 0.575 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.091 0.509 0.920 0.045 3.657 0.294 0.014 5.144 3.068 0.150 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.295 0.950 1.206 0.059 7.395 7.221 0.354 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.402 1.629 3.146 0.154 21.762 1.994 0.098 161.544 13.349 0.654 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.104 0.509 0.920 0.051 3.657 0.294 0.016 5.144 3.068 0.171 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.336 0.950 1.206 0.067 7.395 7.221 0.403 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.459 1.629 3.146 0.176 21.762 1.994 0.111 161.544 13.349 0.746 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.117 0.449 0.920 0.058 3.314 0.294 0.019 4.859 3.068 0.194 8.622

Platforms 6.014 0.381 0.950 1.206 0.076 7.395 7.221 0.457 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.520 1.570 3.146 0.199 21.419 1.994 0.126 161.259 13.349 0.845 184.248

Pipeline 1.854 0.133 0.509 0.920 0.066 3.657 0.294 0.021 5.144 3.068 0.221 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.433 0.950 1.206 0.087 7.395 7.221 0.519 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.591 1.629 3.146 0.226 21.762 1.994 0.143 161.544 13.349 0.960 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.152 0.509 0.920 0.075 3.657 0.294 0.024 5.144 3.068 0.251 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.493 0.950 1.206 0.099 7.395 7.221 0.592 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.673 1.629 3.146 0.258 21.762 1.994 0.163 161.544 13.349 1.094 184.935

2024 38.6

2025 34.0

2026 29.9

2027 26.3

2028 23.2

2029 20.4

2030 17.9

2031 15.8

2032 13.9

2033 12.2

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.854 0.172 0.509 0.920 0.085 3.657 0.294 0.027 5.144 3.068 0.284 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.557 0.950 1.206 0.112 7.395 7.221 0.669 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.760 1.629 3.146 0.291 21.762 1.994 0.185 161.544 13.349 1.236 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.195 0.509 0.920 0.097 3.657 0.294 0.031 5.144 3.068 0.323 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.633 0.950 1.206 0.127 7.395 7.221 0.760 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.864 1.629 3.146 0.331 21.762 1.994 0.210 161.544 13.349 1.405 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 0.370 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.989 1.629 3.146 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.544 13.349 1.608 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 0.420 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.124 1.629 3.146 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.544 13.349 1.829 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 0.472 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.263 1.629 3.146 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.544 13.349 2.054 184.935

2034 10.8

2035 9.5

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2013 0.04 0.022 0.13 1.404 0.228 21.48 0.407 22.906

2014 0.03 0.013 0.08 0.817 0.156 17.16 0.260 17.990

2015 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2016

2017 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2018 0.41 0.082 0.23 2.060 0.250 22.10 0.881 24.242

2019 30.8 3.54 0.115 0.806 1.51 0.049 8.449 0.744 0.024 46.54 5.789 0.188 55.799

2020 38.6 5.40 0.140 1.135 2.16 0.056 13.774 1.244 0.032 92.54 8.813 0.228 107.453

2021 38.6 7.27 0.188 1.464 2.82 0.073 19.099 1.744 0.045 138.54 11.837 0.307 159.108

2022 38.6 8.21 0.213 1.629 3.15 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.54 13.349 0.346 184.935

2023 38.6 8.21 0.213 1.629 3.15 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.54 13.349 0.346 184.935

2024 38.6 8.21 0.213 1.629 3.15 0.082 21.762 1.994 0.052 161.54 13.349 0.346 184.935

2025 34.0 8.21 0.241 1.629 3.15 0.093 21.762 1.994 0.059 161.54 13.349 0.393 184.935

2026 29.9 8.21 0.275 1.629 3.15 0.105 21.762 1.994 0.067 161.54 13.349 0.446 184.935

2027 26.3 8.21 0.312 1.629 3.15 0.120 21.762 1.994 0.076 161.54 13.349 0.508 184.935

2028 23.2 8.21 0.354 1.629 3.15 0.136 21.762 1.994 0.086 161.54 13.349 0.575 184.935

2029 20.4 8.21 0.402 1.629 3.15 0.154 21.762 1.994 0.098 161.54 13.349 0.654 184.935

2030 17.9 8.21 0.459 1.629 3.15 0.176 21.762 1.994 0.111 161.54 13.349 0.746 184.935

2031 15.8 8.21 0.520 1.570 3.15 0.199 21.419 1.994 0.126 161.26 13.349 0.845 184.248

2032 13.9 8.21 0.591 1.629 3.15 0.226 21.762 1.994 0.143 161.54 13.349 0.960 184.935

2033 12.2 8.21 0.673 1.629 3.15 0.258 21.762 1.994 0.163 161.54 13.349 1.094 184.935

2034 10.8 8.21 0.760 1.629 3.15 0.291 21.762 1.994 0.185 161.54 13.349 1.236 184.935

2035 9.5 8.21 0.864 1.629 3.15 0.331 21.762 1.994 0.210 161.54 13.349 1.405 184.935

2036 8.3 8.21 0.989 1.629 3.15 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.54 13.349 1.608 184.935

2037 7.3 8.21 1.124 1.629 3.15 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.54 13.349 1.829 184.935

2038 6.5 8.21 1.263 1.629 3.15 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.54 13.349 2.054 184.935

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.3.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2011

2012 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2013 0.045 0.022 0.134 1.404 0.228 21.480 0.407 22.906

2014 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2015 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2016

2017 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2018 0.052 0.026 0.155 1.625 0.250 22.100 0.457 23.751

2019 30.8 0.090 0.003 0.045 0.270 0.009 2.835 0.450 0.015 41.400 0.810 0.026 44.280

2020 38.6 0.190 0.005 0.095 0.570 0.015 5.985 0.950 0.025 87.400 1.710 0.044 93.480

2021 38.6 0.290 0.008 0.145 0.870 0.023 9.135 1.450 0.038 133.400 2.610 0.068 142.680

2022 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2023 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2024 38.6 0.340 0.009 0.170 1.020 0.026 10.710 1.700 0.044 156.400 3.060 0.079 167.280

2025 34.0 0.340 0.010 0.170 1.020 0.030 10.710 1.700 0.050 156.400 3.060 0.090 167.280

2026 29.9 0.340 0.011 0.170 1.020 0.034 10.710 1.700 0.057 156.400 3.060 0.102 167.280

2027 26.3 0.340 0.013 0.170 1.020 0.039 10.710 1.700 0.065 156.400 3.060 0.116 167.280

2028 23.2 0.340 0.015 0.170 1.020 0.044 10.710 1.700 0.073 156.400 3.060 0.132 167.280

2029 20.4 0.340 0.017 0.170 1.020 0.050 10.710 1.700 0.083 156.400 3.060 0.150 167.280

2030 17.9 0.340 0.019 0.170 1.020 0.057 10.710 1.700 0.095 156.400 3.060 0.171 167.280

2031 15.8 0.340 0.022 0.170 1.020 0.065 10.710 1.700 0.108 156.400 3.060 0.194 167.280

2032 13.9 0.340 0.024 0.170 1.020 0.073 10.710 1.700 0.122 156.400 3.060 0.220 167.280

2033 12.2 0.340 0.028 0.170 1.020 0.084 10.710 1.700 0.139 156.400 3.060 0.251 167.280

2034 10.8 0.340 0.031 0.170 1.020 0.094 10.710 1.700 0.157 156.400 3.060 0.283 167.280

2035 9.5 0.340 0.036 0.170 1.020 0.107 10.710 1.700 0.179 156.400 3.060 0.322 167.280

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsT.4.3.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - P/L

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - P/L

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Platforms

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Platforms

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency - Wells

0123456789

1011121314151617

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_3 Sale 3.xlsF.4.3.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale 3 Spill Index - Wells

0

20406080

100120140160180200

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 10 0.928 0.149 0.01 2.256 0.363 0.14 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.149 0.01 0.363 0.14 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 20 0.928 0.299 0.02 2.256 0.726 0.28 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 20 0.299 0.02 0.726 0.28 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 35 0.522 0.03 1.271 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 35 0.522 0.03 1.271 0.49 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 45 0.928 0.672 0.04 2.256 1.634 0.63 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 55 0.820 0.05 2.000 0.77 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 45 0.928 0.672 0.04 2.256 1.634 0.63 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 10 0.924 0.149 0.01 2.278 0.367 0.14 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 55 0.820 0.05 2.000 0.77 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 55 0.928 0.821 0.05 2.256 1.997 0.77 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 20 0.924 0.297 0.02 2.278 0.733 0.28 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 75 1.118 0.06 2.730 1.06 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 55 0.928 0.821 0.05 2.256 1.997 0.77 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 20 0.924 0.297 0.02 2.278 0.733 0.28 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 75 1.118 0.06 2.730 1.06 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 

Average Spill [bbl] = A

Medium Spills Large Spills

2014

Huge Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

20152008

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004200520062007Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

20162009201020112012201320172018201920202021

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Average Spill [bbl] = A

Medium Spills Large Spills Huge Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 70 0.928 1.045 0.06 2.256 2.541 0.98 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 105 1.565 0.09 3.825 1.48 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 60 0.928 0.896 0.05 2.256 2.178 0.84 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 95 1.416 0.08 3.461 1.34 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 60 0.928 0.896 0.05 2.256 2.178 0.84 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 95 1.416 0.08 3.461 1.34 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 50 0.928 0.746 0.04 2.256 1.815 0.70 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 85 1.266 0.07 3.098 1.20 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 70 1.043 0.06 2.554 0.99 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 35 0.928 0.522 0.03 2.256 1.271 0.49 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 35 0.924 0.520 0.03 2.278 1.283 0.50 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 70 1.043 0.06 2.554 0.99 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 25 0.928 0.373 0.02 2.256 0.908 0.35 1.Medium 10 1.411 0.227 0.01 2.471 0.398 0.11 0.962 0.155 0.69 0.245 0.039 0.57 25 0.924 0.372 0.02 2.278 0.916 0.35 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 10 0.227 0.01 0.398 0.11 0.155 0.69 0.039 0.57 50 0.745 0.04 1.824 0.71 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 15 0.928 0.224 0.01 2.256 0.545 0.21 1.Medium 5 1.411 0.114 0.01 2.471 0.199 0.05 0.962 0.077 0.34 0.245 0.020 0.28 15 0.924 0.223 0.01 2.278 0.550 0.21 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.Total 5 0.114 0.01 0.199 0.05 0.077 0.34 0.020 0.28 30 0.447 0.03 1.094 0.42 

20242025202620352027202820292030203120322033203420362037203820222023

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

1.651.651.651.653.303.305.775.775.775.777.411.599.017.411.599.019.063.18

12.25

9.063.18

12.2511.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.10

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

11.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.1011.53

5.57

17.10

9.895.57

15.46

9.895.57

15.46

8.245.57

13.81

5.775.57

11.34

5.775.57

11.34

4.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.104.123.988.102.472.394.862.472.394.862.472.394.86

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.1 
Table 4.4.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

2004200520062007200820092010 10.9 0.149 0.014 0.009 0.363 0.033 0.141 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 2011 19.9 0.149 0.008 0.009 0.363 0.018 0.141 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 2012 30.8 0.299 0.010 0.017 0.726 0.024 0.281 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 2013 50.7 0.522 0.010 0.030 1.271 0.025 0.492 1.793 0.035 0.522 1.007 0.020 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 2014 56.2 0.522 0.009 0.030 1.271 0.023 0.492 1.793 0.032 0.522 1.007 0.018 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 2015 64.2 0.820 0.013 0.048 2.000 0.031 0.774 2.821 0.044 0.822 1.569 0.024 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 2016 67.4 0.820 0.012 0.048 2.000 0.030 0.774 2.821 0.042 0.822 1.569 0.023 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 2017 77.4 1.232 0.016 0.071 2.929 0.038 1.109 4.161 0.054 1.181 2.208 0.029 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 2018 82.9 1.232 0.015 0.071 2.929 0.035 1.109 4.161 0.050 1.181 2.208 0.027 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 2019 104.6 1.792 0.017 0.104 4.222 0.040 1.586 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 2020 104.8 1.792 0.017 0.104 4.222 0.040 1.586 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 2021 98.6 1.792 0.018 0.104 4.222 0.043 1.586 6.014 0.061 1.690 3.128 0.032 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 2022 89.2 1.792 0.020 0.104 4.222 0.047 1.586 6.014 0.067 1.690 3.128 0.035 12.379 1.006 0.011 17.674 10.148 2023 81.4 1.792 0.022 0.104 4.222 0.052 1.586 6.014 0.074 1.690 3.128 0.038 12.379 1.006 0.012 17.674 10.148 2024 74.8 1.792 0.024 0.104 4.222 0.056 1.586 6.014 0.080 1.690 3.128 0.042 12.379 1.006 0.013 17.674 10.148 2025 62.5 1.643 0.026 0.095 3.859 0.062 1.445 5.502 0.088 1.541 2.841 0.045 11.247 0.913 0.015 16.026 9.255 2026 54.1 1.643 0.030 0.095 3.859 0.071 1.445 5.502 0.102 1.541 2.841 0.053 11.247 0.913 0.017 16.026 9.255 2027 44.6 1.494 0.033 0.087 3.496 0.078 1.305 4.990 0.112 1.391 2.553 0.057 10.115 0.819 0.018 14.379 8.362 2028 36.9 1.270 0.034 0.074 2.951 0.080 1.094 4.221 0.114 1.168 2.121 0.057 8.418 0.680 0.018 11.908 7.022 2029 32.2 1.270 0.039 0.074 2.951 0.092 1.094 4.221 0.131 1.168 2.121 0.066 8.418 0.680 0.021 11.908 7.022 2030 25.8 0.972 0.038 0.056 2.222 0.086 0.812 3.194 0.124 0.868 1.559 0.060 6.209 0.497 0.019 8.668 5.250 2031 22.6 0.972 0.043 0.043 2.222 0.098 0.706 3.194 0.141 0.749 1.559 0.069 5.523 0.497 0.022 8.099 5.250 2032 19.7 0.972 0.049 0.056 2.222 0.113 0.812 3.194 0.162 0.868 1.559 0.079 6.209 0.497 0.025 8.668 5.250 2033 17.2 0.972 0.057 0.056 2.222 0.129 0.812 3.194 0.186 0.868 1.559 0.091 6.209 0.497 0.029 8.668 5.250 2034 15.1 0.972 0.064 0.056 2.222 0.147 0.812 3.194 0.211 0.868 1.559 0.103 6.209 0.497 0.033 8.668 5.250 2035 13.2 0.972 0.074 0.056 2.222 0.168 0.812 3.194 0.242 0.868 1.559 0.118 6.209 0.497 0.038 8.668 5.250 2036 8.3 0.560 0.068 0.033 1.293 0.156 0.476 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 2037 7.3 0.560 0.077 0.033 1.293 0.177 0.476 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 2038 6.5 0.560 0.086 0.033 1.293 0.199 0.476 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.2 
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 1 3 0.866 0.260 0.04 0.174 0.052 0.32

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 3 0.260 0.04 0.052 0.32

Shallow 1 13 0.866 1.126 0.18 0.174 0.226 1.39

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 1 13 1.126 0.18 0.226 1.39

Shallow 2 26 0.866 2.251 0.36 0.174 0.453 2.77

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 26 2.251 0.36 0.453 2.77

Shallow 3 39 0.866 3.377 0.53 0.174 0.679 4.16

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 39 3.377 0.53 0.679 4.16

Shallow 3 59 0.866 5.108 0.81 0.174 1.027 6.30

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 3 59 5.108 0.81 1.027 6.30

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 1 3 0.884 0.265 0.04 0.177 0.053 0.33

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 72 6.239 0.99 1.255 7.69

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 1 13 0.884 1.150 0.18 0.177 0.231 1.41

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 82 7.124 1.13 1.432 8.78

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 2 26 0.884 2.300 0.36 0.177 0.461 2.83

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 5 95 8.274 1.31 1.663 10.19

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 3 39 0.884 3.449 0.55 0.177 0.692 4.24

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 6 108 9.423 1.49 1.893 11.61

2014

2015

2008

2006

2007

2017

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

2005

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 4 63 0.884 5.572 0.88 0.177 1.118 6.85

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 7 132 11.546 1.82 2.319 14.22

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 87 0.884 7.695 1.22 0.177 1.543 9.46

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 156 13.669 2.16 2.745 16.83

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 107 0.884 9.464 1.50 0.177 1.898 11.64

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 176 15.438 2.44 3.100 19.00

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 127 0.884 11.233 1.77 0.177 2.253 13.81

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 196 17.207 2.72 3.454 21.18

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 206 18.091 2.86 3.632 22.26

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 206 18.091 2.86 3.632 22.26

Shallow 3 69 0.866 5.974 0.94 0.174 1.201 7.36

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 8 206 18.091 2.86 3.632 22.26

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 7 183 16.100 2.54 3.231 19.81

Shallow 2 46 0.866 3.983 0.63 0.174 0.801 4.91

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 7 183 16.100 2.54 3.231 19.81

Shallow 1 23 0.866 1.991 0.31 0.174 0.400 2.45

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 6 160 14.109 2.23 2.831 17.35

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 5 137 12.117 1.91 2.431 14.90

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 5 137 0.884 12.117 1.91 0.177 2.431 14.90

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 5 137 12.117 1.91 2.431 14.90

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

2027

2020

2021

2022

2023

2018

2019

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

Water N P Wells

Depth

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 4 114 0.884 10.083 1.59 0.177 2.022 12.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 4 114 10.083 1.59 2.022 12.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 2 68 0.884 6.014 0.95 0.177 1.206 7.40

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total 2 68 6.014 0.95 1.206 7.40

2032

2037

2038

2033

2034

2035

2036

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

2010 10.9 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

2011 19.9 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

2012 30.8 3.377 0.110 0.533 0.679 0.022 4.162 4.056 0.132 4.696

2013 50.7 5.108 0.101 0.807 1.027 0.020 6.297 6.135 0.121 7.104

2014 56.2 6.239 0.111 0.986 1.255 0.022 7.691 7.494 0.133 8.676

2015 64.2 7.124 0.111 1.126 1.432 0.022 8.778 8.556 0.133 9.904

2016 67.4 8.274 0.123 1.307 1.663 0.025 10.192 9.936 0.147 11.499

2017 77.4 9.423 0.122 1.489 1.893 0.024 11.606 11.317 0.146 13.095

2018 82.9 11.546 0.139 1.824 2.319 0.028 14.216 13.865 0.167 16.040

2019 104.6 13.669 0.131 2.160 2.745 0.026 16.826 16.414 0.157 18.986

2020 104.8 15.438 0.147 2.439 3.100 0.030 19.001 18.537 0.177 21.440

2021 98.6 17.207 0.175 2.719 3.454 0.035 21.176 20.661 0.210 23.895

2022 89.2 18.091 0.203 2.858 3.632 0.041 22.264 21.723 0.244 25.122

2023 81.4 18.091 0.222 2.858 3.632 0.045 22.264 21.723 0.267 25.122

2024 74.8 18.091 0.242 2.858 3.632 0.049 22.264 21.723 0.290 25.122

2025 62.5 16.100 0.258 2.544 3.231 0.052 19.809 19.331 0.309 22.353

2026 54.1 16.100 0.298 2.544 3.231 0.060 19.809 19.331 0.357 22.353

2027 44.6 14.109 0.316 2.229 2.831 0.063 17.354 16.940 0.380 19.583

2028 36.9 12.117 0.328 1.915 2.431 0.066 14.899 14.548 0.394 16.814

2029 32.2 12.117 0.376 1.915 2.431 0.075 14.899 14.548 0.452 16.814

2030 25.8 10.083 0.391 1.593 2.022 0.078 12.398 12.106 0.469 13.991

2031 22.6 10.083 0.446 1.593 2.022 0.089 12.398 12.106 0.536 13.991

2032 19.7 10.083 0.512 1.593 2.022 0.103 12.398 12.106 0.614 13.991

2033 17.2 10.083 0.586 1.593 2.022 0.118 12.398 12.106 0.704 13.991

2034 15.1 10.083 0.668 1.593 2.022 0.134 12.398 12.106 0.802 13.991

2035 13.2 10.083 0.764 1.593 2.022 0.153 12.398 12.106 0.917 13.991

2036 8.3 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

2037 7.3 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

2038 6.5 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 3 0.015 0.01 0.105 0.47 0.045 0.90 0.030 6.00

Shallow 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 13 0.065 0.03 0.455 2.05 0.195 3.90 0.130 26.00

Shallow 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 26 0.130 0.07 0.910 4.10 0.390 7.80 0.260 52.00

Shallow 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 39 0.195 0.10 1.365 6.14 0.585 11.70 0.390 78.00

Shallow 59 0.500 0.295 0.15 3.500 2.065 9.29 1.500 0.885 17.70 1.000 0.590 118.00

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 59 0.295 0.15 2.065 9.29 0.885 17.70 0.590 118.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 3 0.500 0.015 0.01 3.500 0.105 0.47 1.500 0.045 0.90 1.000 0.030 6.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 72 0.360 0.18 2.520 11.34 1.080 21.60 0.720 144.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 13 0.500 0.065 0.03 3.500 0.455 2.05 1.500 0.195 3.90 1.000 0.130 26.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 82 0.410 0.21 2.870 12.92 1.230 24.60 0.820 164.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 26 0.500 0.130 0.07 3.500 0.910 4.10 1.500 0.390 7.80 1.000 0.260 52.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 95 0.475 0.24 3.325 14.96 1.425 28.50 0.950 190.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 39 0.500 0.195 0.10 3.500 1.365 6.14 1.500 0.585 11.70 1.000 0.390 78.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

2017

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 63 0.500 0.315 0.16 3.500 2.205 9.92 1.500 0.945 18.90 1.000 0.630 126.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 132 0.660 0.33 4.620 20.79 1.980 39.60 1.320 264.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 87 0.500 0.435 0.22 3.500 3.045 13.70 1.500 1.305 26.10 1.000 0.870 174.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 156 0.780 0.39 5.460 24.57 2.340 46.80 1.560 312.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 107 0.500 0.535 0.27 3.500 3.745 16.85 1.500 1.605 32.10 1.000 1.070 214.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 176 0.880 0.44 6.160 27.72 2.640 52.80 1.760 352.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 127 0.500 0.635 0.32 3.500 4.445 20.00 1.500 1.905 38.10 1.000 1.270 254.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 196 0.980 0.49 6.860 30.87 2.940 58.80 1.960 392.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 69 0.500 0.345 0.17 3.500 2.415 10.87 1.500 1.035 20.70 1.000 0.690 138.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 206 1.030 0.52 7.210 32.45 3.090 61.80 2.060 412.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 46 0.500 0.230 0.12 3.500 1.610 7.25 1.500 0.690 13.80 1.000 0.460 92.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 183 0.915 0.46 6.405 28.82 2.745 54.90 1.830 366.00

Shallow 23 0.500 0.115 0.06 3.500 0.805 3.62 1.500 0.345 6.90 1.000 0.230 46.00

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 160 0.800 0.40 5.600 25.20 2.400 48.00 1.600 320.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 137 0.500 0.685 0.34 3.500 4.795 21.58 1.500 2.055 41.10 1.000 1.370 274.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 137 0.685 0.34 4.795 21.58 2.055 41.10 1.370 274.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 114 0.500 0.570 0.29 3.500 3.990 17.96 1.500 1.710 34.20 1.000 1.140 228.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 114 0.570 0.29 3.990 17.96 1.710 34.20 1.140 228.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 68 0.500 0.340 0.17 3.500 2.380 10.71 1.500 1.020 20.40 1.000 0.680 136.00

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total 68 0.340 0.17 2.380 10.71 1.020 20.40 0.680 136.00

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

2010 10.9 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

2013 50.7 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

2014 56.2 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

2015 64.2 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

2018 82.9 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2005

2006

2007

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

2017

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 1 3.160 0.032 0.02 22.110 0.221 0.99 9.500 0.095 1.90 5.500 0.055 11.00

Total 1 0.032 0.02 0.221 0.99 0.095 1.90 0.055 11.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2035

2032

2033

2034

2036

2037

2038

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2009 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2010 10.9 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

2011 19.9

2012 30.8 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

2013 50.7 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

2014 56.2

2015 64.2 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2016 67.4

2017 77.4 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

2018 82.9 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 3 1.300 0.039 0.02 9.080 0.272 1.23 3.900 0.117 2.34 3.900 0.117 23.40

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 3 0.039 0.02 0.272 1.23 0.117 2.34 0.117 23.40

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 4 1.300 0.052 0.03 9.080 0.363 1.63 3.900 0.156 3.12 3.900 0.156 31.20

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 4 0.052 0.03 0.363 1.63 0.156 3.12 0.156 31.20

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2017

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2008

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

2005

2006

N Wells

2004

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2007

Year

2016

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2024

2025

2026

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Year Average Spill [bbl] = 

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

2036

2037

2038

2035

2032

2033

2034

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

2004

2005

2006 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2007

2008 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2009 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

2010 10.9 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

2011 19.9

2012 30.8

2013 50.7 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

2014 56.2 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

2015 64.2 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

2016 67.4

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2023 81.4

2024 74.8

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2033 17.2

2034 15.1

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells

Total 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline

Platforms 0.260 0.041 0.052 0.320 0.312 0.361

Production Wells 0.015 0.008 0.045 0.473 0.075 6.900 0.135 7.380

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.332 0.077 0.270 2.605 0.381 36.960 0.984 39.642

Pipeline 0.512 0.047 0.149 0.288 0.026 1.132 0.093 0.009 1.648 0.893 0.082 2.928

Platforms 1.126 0.103 0.178 0.226 0.021 1.387 1.352 0.124 1.565

Production Wells 0.065 0.006 0.033 0.195 0.018 2.048 0.325 0.030 29.900 0.585 0.054 31.980

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.006 0.032 0.190 0.017 1.990 0.300 0.028 25.800 0.553 0.051 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.002 0.013 0.078 0.007 0.817 0.156 0.014 17.160 0.260 0.024 17.990

Total 1.792 0.164 0.404 0.977 0.090 7.374 0.874 0.080 74.508 3.643 0.334 82.285

Pipeline 0.512 0.026 0.149 0.288 0.014 1.132 0.093 0.005 1.648 0.893 0.045 2.928

Platforms 2.251 0.113 0.356 0.453 0.023 2.775 2.704 0.136 3.131

Production Wells 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 2.893 0.145 0.570 1.130 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.448 4.767 0.240 70.019

Pipeline 1.025 0.033 0.298 0.576 0.019 2.263 0.186 0.006 3.295 1.786 0.058 5.857

Platforms 3.377 0.110 0.533 0.679 0.022 4.162 4.056 0.132 4.696

Production Wells 0.195 0.006 0.098 0.585 0.019 6.143 0.975 0.032 89.700 1.755 0.057 95.940

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.003 0.047 0.285 0.009 2.985 0.450 0.015 38.700 0.830 0.027 41.732

Development Wells

Total 4.691 0.152 0.977 2.125 0.069 15.553 1.611 0.052 131.695 8.427 0.274 148.225

Pipeline 1.793 0.035 0.522 1.007 0.020 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 0.062 10.249

Platforms 5.108 0.101 0.807 1.027 0.020 6.297 6.135 0.121 7.104

Production Wells 0.295 0.006 0.148 0.885 0.017 9.293 1.475 0.029 135.700 2.655 0.052 145.140

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.001 0.032 0.190 0.004 1.990 0.300 0.006 25.800 0.553 0.011 27.822

Development Wells 0.039 0.001 0.020 0.117 0.002 1.226 0.234 0.005 25.740 0.390 0.008 26.985

Total 7.298 0.144 1.528 3.227 0.064 22.766 2.335 0.046 193.006 12.860 0.254 217.300

2012 30.8

2013 50.7

2011

2010 10.9

19.9

2008

2009

2006

2007

2004

2005

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 1.793 0.032 0.522 1.007 0.018 3.961 0.326 0.006 5.766 3.126 0.056 10.249

Platforms 6.239 0.111 0.986 1.255 0.022 7.691 7.494 0.133 8.676

Production Wells 0.360 0.006 0.180 1.080 0.019 11.340 1.800 0.032 165.600 3.240 0.058 177.120

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.052 0.001 0.026 0.156 0.003 1.634 0.312 0.006 34.320 0.520 0.009 35.980

Total 8.444 0.150 1.714 3.498 0.062 24.626 2.438 0.043 205.686 14.380 0.256 232.026

Pipeline 2.821 0.044 0.822 1.569 0.024 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 0.076 15.997

Platforms 7.124 0.111 1.126 1.432 0.022 8.778 8.556 0.133 9.904

Production Wells 0.410 0.006 0.205 1.230 0.019 12.915 2.050 0.032 188.600 3.690 0.057 201.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells 0.026 0.000 0.013 0.078 0.001 0.817 0.156 0.002 17.160 0.260 0.004 17.990

Total 10.412 0.162 2.181 4.404 0.069 29.675 2.865 0.045 227.666 17.681 0.275 259.522

Pipeline 2.821 0.042 0.822 1.569 0.023 6.170 0.509 0.008 9.006 4.898 0.073 15.997

Platforms 8.274 0.123 1.307 1.663 0.025 10.192 9.936 0.147 11.499

Production Wells 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.569 0.172 2.366 4.657 0.069 31.324 2.884 0.043 227.506 19.110 0.284 261.196

Pipeline 4.161 0.054 1.181 2.208 0.029 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 0.091 22.433

Platforms 9.423 0.122 1.489 1.893 0.024 11.606 11.317 0.146 13.095

Production Wells 0.540 0.007 0.270 1.620 0.021 17.010 2.700 0.035 248.400 4.860 0.063 265.680

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.004 13.911

Development Wells

Total 14.156 0.183 2.956 5.817 0.075 38.333 3.561 0.046 273.830 23.533 0.304 315.118

Pipeline 4.161 0.050 1.181 2.208 0.027 8.722 0.711 0.009 12.530 7.080 0.085 22.433

Platforms 11.546 0.139 1.824 2.319 0.028 14.216 13.865 0.167 16.040

Production Wells 0.660 0.008 0.330 1.980 0.024 20.790 3.300 0.040 303.600 5.940 0.072 324.720

Exploration Wells 0.032 0.000 0.016 0.095 0.001 0.995 0.150 0.002 12.900 0.277 0.003 13.911

Development Wells

Total 16.398 0.198 3.351 6.602 0.080 44.723 4.161 0.050 329.030 27.162 0.328 377.104

Pipeline 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 0.097 31.742

Platforms 13.669 0.131 2.160 2.745 0.026 16.826 16.414 0.157 18.986

Production Wells 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.463 0.196 4.239 8.213 0.079 53.775 4.906 0.047 376.474 33.582 0.321 434.488

Pipeline 6.014 0.057 1.690 3.128 0.030 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 0.097 31.742

Platforms 15.438 0.147 2.439 3.100 0.030 19.001 18.537 0.177 21.440

Production Wells 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.332 0.213 4.569 8.868 0.085 59.100 5.406 0.052 422.474 36.606 0.349 486.143

Pipeline 6.014 0.061 1.690 3.128 0.032 12.379 1.006 0.010 17.674 10.148 0.103 31.742

Platforms 17.207 0.175 2.719 3.454 0.035 21.176 20.661 0.210 23.895

Production Wells 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 24.201 0.245 4.898 9.523 0.097 64.425 5.906 0.060 468.474 39.629 0.402 537.797

Pipeline 6.014 0.067 1.690 3.128 0.035 12.379 1.006 0.011 17.674 10.148 0.114 31.742

Platforms 18.091 0.203 2.858 3.632 0.041 22.264 21.723 0.244 25.122

Production Wells 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.136 0.282 5.063 9.850 0.110 67.087 6.156 0.069 491.474 41.141 0.461 563.624

Pipeline 6.014 0.074 1.690 3.128 0.038 12.379 1.006 0.012 17.674 10.148 0.125 31.742

Platforms 18.091 0.222 2.858 3.632 0.045 22.264 21.723 0.267 25.122

Production Wells 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.136 0.309 5.063 9.850 0.121 67.087 6.156 0.076 491.474 41.141 0.505 563.624

2023 81.4

2021 98.6

2022 89.2

2019 104.6

2020 104.8

2017 77.4

2018 82.9

2016 67.4

2014 56.2

2015 64.2

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 6.014 0.080 1.690 3.128 0.042 12.379 1.006 0.013 17.674 10.148 0.136 31.742

Platforms 18.091 0.242 2.858 3.632 0.049 22.264 21.723 0.290 25.122

Production Wells 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.136 0.336 5.063 9.850 0.132 67.087 6.156 0.082 491.474 41.141 0.550 563.624

Pipeline 5.502 0.088 1.541 2.841 0.045 11.247 0.913 0.015 16.026 9.255 0.148 28.814

Platforms 16.100 0.258 2.544 3.231 0.052 19.809 19.331 0.309 22.353

Production Wells 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.517 0.360 4.542 8.817 0.141 59.878 5.488 0.088 436.926 36.821 0.589 501.347

Pipeline 5.502 0.102 1.541 2.841 0.053 11.247 0.913 0.017 16.026 9.255 0.171 28.814

Platforms 16.100 0.298 2.544 3.231 0.060 19.809 19.331 0.357 22.353

Production Wells 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.517 0.416 4.542 8.817 0.163 59.878 5.488 0.101 436.926 36.821 0.681 501.347

Pipeline 4.990 0.112 1.391 2.553 0.057 10.115 0.819 0.018 14.379 8.362 0.187 25.886

Platforms 14.109 0.316 2.229 2.831 0.063 17.354 16.940 0.380 19.583

Production Wells 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 19.898 0.446 4.021 7.784 0.175 52.669 4.819 0.108 382.379 32.502 0.729 439.069

Pipeline 4.221 0.114 1.168 2.121 0.057 8.418 0.680 0.018 11.908 7.022 0.190 21.493

Platforms 12.117 0.328 1.915 2.431 0.066 14.899 14.548 0.394 16.814

Production Wells 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.024 0.461 3.425 6.607 0.179 44.895 4.105 0.111 327.008 27.735 0.752 375.327

Pipeline 4.221 0.131 1.168 2.121 0.066 8.418 0.680 0.021 11.908 7.022 0.218 21.493

Platforms 12.117 0.376 1.915 2.431 0.075 14.899 14.548 0.452 16.814

Production Wells 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 17.024 0.529 3.425 6.607 0.205 44.895 4.105 0.127 327.008 27.735 0.861 375.327

Pipeline 3.194 0.124 0.868 1.559 0.060 6.209 0.497 0.019 8.668 5.250 0.203 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.391 1.593 2.022 0.078 12.398 12.106 0.469 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.537 2.746 5.292 0.205 36.562 3.347 0.130 270.868 22.485 0.872 310.176

Pipeline 3.194 0.141 0.749 1.559 0.069 5.523 0.497 0.022 8.099 5.250 0.232 14.371

Platforms 10.083 0.446 1.593 2.022 0.089 12.398 12.106 0.536 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.613 2.627 5.292 0.234 35.876 3.347 0.148 270.299 22.485 0.995 308.802

Pipeline 3.194 0.162 0.868 1.559 0.079 6.209 0.497 0.025 8.668 5.250 0.266 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.512 1.593 2.022 0.103 12.398 12.106 0.614 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.703 2.746 5.292 0.269 36.562 3.347 0.170 270.868 22.485 1.141 310.176

Pipeline 3.194 0.186 0.868 1.559 0.091 6.209 0.497 0.029 8.668 5.250 0.305 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.586 1.593 2.022 0.118 12.398 12.106 0.704 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.805 2.746 5.292 0.308 36.562 3.347 0.195 270.868 22.485 1.307 310.176

2033 17.2

2031 22.6

2032 19.7

2029 32.2

2030 25.8

2027 44.6

2028 36.9

2025 62.5

2026 54.1

2024 74.8

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 3.194 0.211 0.868 1.559 0.103 6.209 0.497 0.033 8.668 5.250 0.348 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.668 1.593 2.022 0.134 12.398 12.106 0.802 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 0.917 2.746 5.292 0.350 36.562 3.347 0.222 270.868 22.485 1.489 310.176

Pipeline 3.194 0.242 0.868 1.559 0.118 6.209 0.497 0.038 8.668 5.250 0.398 15.745

Platforms 10.083 0.764 1.593 2.022 0.153 12.398 12.106 0.917 13.991

Production Wells 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 13.847 1.049 2.746 5.292 0.401 36.562 3.347 0.254 270.868 22.485 1.703 310.176

Pipeline 1.854 0.223 0.509 0.920 0.111 3.657 0.294 0.035 5.144 3.068 0.370 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.725 0.950 1.206 0.145 7.395 7.221 0.870 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 0.989 1.629 3.146 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.544 13.349 1.608 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.254 0.509 0.920 0.126 3.657 0.294 0.040 5.144 3.068 0.420 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.824 0.950 1.206 0.165 7.395 7.221 0.989 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.124 1.629 3.146 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.544 13.349 1.829 184.935

Pipeline 1.854 0.285 0.509 0.920 0.142 3.657 0.294 0.045 5.144 3.068 0.472 9.310

Platforms 6.014 0.925 0.950 1.206 0.186 7.395 7.221 1.111 8.346

Production Wells 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 8.208 1.263 1.629 3.146 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.544 13.349 2.054 184.935

2037 7.3

2038 6.5

2035 13.2

2036 8.3

2034 15.1

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2005 0.03 0.016 0.10 0.995 0.150 12.90 0.277 13.911

2006 0.06 0.029 0.17 1.812 0.306 30.06 0.537 31.901

2007 0.06 0.032 0.19 1.990 0.300 25.80 0.553 27.822

2008 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

2009 0.33 0.077 0.27 2.605 0.381 36.96 0.984 39.642

2010 10.9 1.79 0.164 0.404 0.98 0.090 7.374 0.874 0.080 74.51 3.643 0.334 82.285

2011 19.9 2.89 0.145 0.570 1.13 0.057 8.002 0.743 0.037 61.45 4.767 0.240 70.019

2012 30.8 4.69 0.152 0.977 2.12 0.069 15.553 1.611 0.052 131.70 8.427 0.274 148.225

2013 50.7 7.30 0.144 1.528 3.23 0.064 22.766 2.335 0.046 193.01 12.860 0.254 217.300

2014 56.2 8.44 0.150 1.714 3.50 0.062 24.626 2.438 0.043 205.69 14.380 0.256 232.026

2015 64.2 10.41 0.162 2.181 4.40 0.069 29.675 2.865 0.045 227.67 17.681 0.275 259.522

2016 67.4 11.57 0.172 2.366 4.66 0.069 31.324 2.884 0.043 227.51 19.110 0.284 261.196

2017 77.4 14.16 0.183 2.956 5.82 0.075 38.333 3.561 0.046 273.83 23.533 0.304 315.118

2018 82.9 16.40 0.198 3.351 6.60 0.080 44.723 4.161 0.050 329.03 27.162 0.328 377.104

2019 104.6 20.46 0.196 4.239 8.21 0.079 53.775 4.906 0.047 376.47 33.582 0.321 434.488

2020 104.8 22.33 0.213 4.569 8.87 0.085 59.100 5.406 0.052 422.47 36.606 0.349 486.143

2021 98.6 24.20 0.245 4.898 9.52 0.097 64.425 5.906 0.060 468.47 39.629 0.402 537.797

2022 89.2 25.14 0.282 5.063 9.85 0.110 67.087 6.156 0.069 491.47 41.141 0.461 563.624

2023 81.4 25.14 0.309 5.063 9.85 0.121 67.087 6.156 0.076 491.47 41.141 0.505 563.624

2024 74.8 25.14 0.336 5.063 9.85 0.132 67.087 6.156 0.082 491.47 41.141 0.550 563.624

2025 62.5 22.52 0.360 4.542 8.82 0.141 59.878 5.488 0.088 436.93 36.821 0.589 501.347

2026 54.1 22.52 0.416 4.542 8.82 0.163 59.878 5.488 0.101 436.93 36.821 0.681 501.347

2027 44.6 19.90 0.446 4.021 7.78 0.175 52.669 4.819 0.108 382.38 32.502 0.729 439.069

2028 36.9 17.02 0.461 3.425 6.61 0.179 44.895 4.105 0.111 327.01 27.735 0.752 375.327

2029 32.2 17.02 0.529 3.425 6.61 0.205 44.895 4.105 0.127 327.01 27.735 0.861 375.327

2030 25.8 13.85 0.537 2.746 5.29 0.205 36.562 3.347 0.130 270.87 22.485 0.872 310.176

2031 22.6 13.85 0.613 2.627 5.29 0.234 35.876 3.347 0.148 270.30 22.485 0.995 308.802

2032 19.7 13.85 0.703 2.746 5.29 0.269 36.562 3.347 0.170 270.87 22.485 1.141 310.176

2033 17.2 13.85 0.805 2.746 5.29 0.308 36.562 3.347 0.195 270.87 22.485 1.307 310.176

2034 15.1 13.85 0.917 2.746 5.29 0.350 36.562 3.347 0.222 270.87 22.485 1.489 310.176

2035 13.2 13.85 1.049 2.746 5.29 0.401 36.562 3.347 0.254 270.87 22.485 1.703 310.176

2036 8.3 8.21 0.989 1.629 3.15 0.379 21.762 1.994 0.240 161.54 13.349 1.608 184.935

2037 7.3 8.21 1.124 1.629 3.15 0.431 21.762 1.994 0.273 161.54 13.349 1.829 184.935

2038 6.5 8.21 1.263 1.629 3.15 0.484 21.762 1.994 0.307 161.54 13.349 2.054 184.935

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.12 11/1/2002
Table 4.4.13

Artic Spill Occurrence Beaufort Sea Sale All Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2005 0.032 0.016 0.095 0.995 0.150 12.900 0.277 13.911

2006 0.058 0.029 0.173 1.812 0.306 30.060 0.537 31.901

2007 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2008 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

2009 0.073 0.036 0.218 2.285 0.381 36.960 0.672 39.281

2010 10.9 0.154 0.014 0.077 0.463 0.042 4.855 0.781 0.072 72.860 1.398 0.128 77.792

2011 19.9 0.130 0.007 0.065 0.390 0.020 4.095 0.650 0.033 59.800 1.170 0.059 63.960

2012 30.8 0.290 0.009 0.145 0.870 0.028 9.127 1.425 0.046 128.400 2.585 0.084 137.672

2013 50.7 0.397 0.008 0.199 1.192 0.024 12.508 2.009 0.040 187.240 3.598 0.071 199.947

2014 56.2 0.412 0.007 0.206 1.236 0.022 12.974 2.112 0.038 199.920 3.760 0.067 213.100

2015 64.2 0.468 0.007 0.234 1.403 0.022 14.727 2.356 0.037 218.660 4.227 0.066 233.621

2016 67.4 0.475 0.007 0.238 1.425 0.021 14.963 2.375 0.035 218.500 4.275 0.063 233.700

2017 77.4 0.572 0.007 0.286 1.715 0.022 18.005 2.850 0.037 261.300 5.137 0.066 279.591

2018 82.9 0.692 0.008 0.346 2.075 0.025 21.785 3.450 0.042 316.500 6.217 0.075 338.631

2019 104.6 0.780 0.007 0.390 2.340 0.022 24.570 3.900 0.037 358.800 7.020 0.067 383.760

2020 104.8 0.880 0.008 0.440 2.640 0.025 27.720 4.400 0.042 404.800 7.920 0.076 432.960

2021 98.6 0.980 0.010 0.490 2.940 0.030 30.870 4.900 0.050 450.800 8.820 0.089 482.160

2022 89.2 1.030 0.012 0.515 3.090 0.035 32.445 5.150 0.058 473.800 9.270 0.104 506.760

2023 81.4 1.030 0.013 0.515 3.090 0.038 32.445 5.150 0.063 473.800 9.270 0.114 506.760

2024 74.8 1.030 0.014 0.515 3.090 0.041 32.445 5.150 0.069 473.800 9.270 0.124 506.760

2025 62.5 0.915 0.015 0.458 2.745 0.044 28.823 4.575 0.073 420.900 8.235 0.132 450.180

2026 54.1 0.915 0.017 0.458 2.745 0.051 28.823 4.575 0.085 420.900 8.235 0.152 450.180

2027 44.6 0.800 0.018 0.400 2.400 0.054 25.200 4.000 0.090 368.000 7.200 0.161 393.600

2028 36.9 0.685 0.019 0.343 2.055 0.056 21.578 3.425 0.093 315.100 6.165 0.167 337.020

2029 32.2 0.685 0.021 0.343 2.055 0.064 21.578 3.425 0.106 315.100 6.165 0.191 337.020

2030 25.8 0.570 0.022 0.285 1.710 0.066 17.955 2.850 0.110 262.200 5.130 0.199 280.440

2031 22.6 0.570 0.025 0.285 1.710 0.076 17.955 2.850 0.126 262.200 5.130 0.227 280.440

2032 19.7 0.570 0.029 0.285 1.710 0.087 17.955 2.850 0.145 262.200 5.130 0.260 280.440

2033 17.2 0.570 0.033 0.285 1.710 0.099 17.955 2.850 0.166 262.200 5.130 0.298 280.440

2034 15.1 0.570 0.038 0.285 1.710 0.113 17.955 2.850 0.189 262.200 5.130 0.340 280.440

2035 13.2 0.570 0.043 0.285 1.710 0.130 17.955 2.850 0.216 262.200 5.130 0.389 280.440

2036 8.3 0.340 0.041 0.170 1.020 0.123 10.710 1.700 0.205 156.400 3.060 0.369 167.280

2037 7.3 0.340 0.047 0.170 1.020 0.140 10.710 1.700 0.233 156.400 3.060 0.419 167.280

2038 6.5 0.340 0.052 0.170 1.020 0.157 10.710 1.700 0.262 156.400 3.060 0.471 167.280

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsT.4.4.13 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.1 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.2 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.3 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.4 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - P/L

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.5 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.6 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - P/L

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.7 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Platforms

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.8 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.9 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Platforms

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge SpillsSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.10 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency - Wells

05

101520253035404550

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.11 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_4 Sale All.xlsF.4.4.12 

Beaufort Sea Sale All Spill Index - Wells

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.5.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

Large Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2002200120102003200420052006200720092008

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.1 
Table 4.5.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.1 
Table 4.5.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

1998 01999 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422000 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422001 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422002 101 2.968 0.029 0.172 7.383 0.073 2.857 10.351 0.102 3.029 5.314 0.053 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.422003 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422004 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422005 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422006 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422007 135 2.968 0.022 0.172 7.383 0.055 2.857 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.422008 119 2.968 0.025 0.172 7.383 0.062 2.857 10.351 0.087 3.029 5.314 0.045 20.894 1.761 0.015 31.180 17.422009 103 2.968 0.029 0.172 7.383 0.072 2.857 10.351 0.100 3.029 5.314 0.052 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.422010 92 2.968 0.032 0.172 7.383 0.080 2.857 10.351 0.113 3.029 5.314 0.058 20.894 1.761 0.019 31.180 17.42

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.2 
Table 4.5.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 2 8 0.913 0.730 0.12 0.182 0.146 0.89

Total 2 8 0.730 0.12 0.146 0.89

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 4 48 0.913 4.380 0.69 0.182 0.875 5.37

Total 4 48 4.380 0.69 0.875 5.37

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 108 0.913 9.855 1.56 0.182 1.970 12.07

Total 6 108 9.855 1.56 1.970 12.07

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 188 0.913 17.156 2.71 0.182 3.428 21.02

Total 6 188 17.156 2.71 3.428 21.02

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 6 214 0.913 19.528 3.09 0.182 3.903 23.92

Total 6 214 19.528 3.09 3.903 23.92

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0 0.730 0.115 0.146 0.894 0.876 1.010

2001 0 4.380 0.692 0.875 5.366 5.255 6.058

2002 101 9.855 0.098 1.557 1.970 0.020 12.073 11.825 0.117 13.630

2003 135 17.156 0.127 2.711 3.428 0.025 21.016 20.584 0.152 23.727

2004 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2005 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2006 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2007 135 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

2008 119 19.528 0.164 3.085 3.903 0.033 23.923 23.431 0.197 27.008

2009 103 19.528 0.190 3.085 3.903 0.038 23.923 23.431 0.227 27.008

2010 92 19.528 0.212 3.085 3.903 0.042 23.923 23.431 0.255 27.008

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 8 0.500 0.040 0.02 3.500 0.280 1.26 1.500 0.120 2.40 1.000 0.080 16.00

Total 8 0.040 0.02 0.280 1.26 0.120 2.40 0.080 16.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 48 0.500 0.240 0.12 3.500 1.680 7.56 1.500 0.720 14.40 1.000 0.480 96.00

Total 48 0.240 0.12 1.680 7.56 0.720 14.40 0.480 96.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 108 0.500 0.540 0.27 3.500 3.780 17.01 1.500 1.620 32.40 1.000 1.080 216.00

Total 108 0.540 0.27 3.780 17.01 1.620 32.40 1.080 216.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 188 0.500 0.940 0.47 3.500 6.580 29.61 1.500 2.820 56.40 1.000 1.880 376.00

Total 188 0.940 0.47 6.580 29.61 2.820 56.40 1.880 376.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 214 0.500 1.070 0.54 3.500 7.490 33.71 1.500 3.210 64.20 1.000 2.140 428.00

Total 214 1.070 0.54 7.490 33.71 3.210 64.20 2.140 428.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0 0.040 0.020 0.120 1.260 0.200 18.400 0.360 19.680

2001 0 0.240 0.120 0.720 7.560 1.200 110.400 2.160 118.080

2002 101 0.540 0.005 0.270 1.620 0.016 17.010 2.700 0.027 248.400 4.860 0.048 265.680

2003 135 0.940 0.007 0.470 2.820 0.021 29.610 4.700 0.035 432.400 8.460 0.063 462.480

2004 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2005 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2006 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2007 135 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

2008 119 1.070 0.009 0.535 3.210 0.027 33.705 5.350 0.045 492.200 9.630 0.081 526.440

2009 103 1.070 0.010 0.535 3.210 0.031 33.705 5.350 0.052 492.200 9.630 0.093 526.440

2010 92 1.070 0.012 0.535 3.210 0.035 33.705 5.350 0.058 492.200 9.630 0.105 526.440

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 101

2003 135

2004 135

2005 135

2006 135

2007 135

2008 119

2009 103

2010 92

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 2 1.300 0.026 0.01 9.080 0.182 0.82 3.900 0.078 1.56 3.900 0.078 15.60

Total 2 0.026 0.01 0.182 0.82 0.078 1.56 0.078 15.60

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0

2002 101

2003 135

2004 135

2005 135

2006 135

2007 135

2008 119

2009 103

2010 92

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.026 0.013 0.078 0.817 0.156 17.160 0.260 17.990

Total 0.089 0.045 0.268 2.807 0.456 42.960 0.813 45.812

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 0.730 0.115 0.146 0.894 0.876 1.010

Production Wells 0.040 0.020 0.120 1.260 0.200 18.400 0.360 19.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 11.121 3.165 5.580 23.048 1.961 49.580 18.662 75.793

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 4.380 0.692 0.875 5.366 5.255 6.058

Production Wells 0.240 0.120 0.720 7.560 1.200 110.400 2.160 118.080

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 14.971 3.841 6.909 33.820 2.961 141.580 24.841 179.241

Pipeline 10.351 0.102 3.029 5.314 0.053 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.426 0.173 55.103

Platforms 9.855 0.098 1.557 1.970 0.020 12.073 11.825 0.117 13.630

Production Wells 0.540 0.005 0.270 1.620 0.016 17.010 2.700 0.027 248.400 4.860 0.048 265.680

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 20.746 0.205 4.857 8.903 0.088 49.977 4.461 0.044 279.580 34.110 0.338 334.413

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 17.156 0.127 2.711 3.428 0.025 21.016 20.584 0.152 23.727

Production Wells 0.940 0.007 0.470 2.820 0.021 29.610 4.700 0.035 432.400 8.460 0.063 462.480

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.446 0.211 6.210 11.562 0.086 71.520 6.461 0.048 463.580 46.470 0.344 541.310

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.077 3.029 5.314 0.039 20.894 1.761 0.013 31.180 17.426 0.129 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.145 3.085 3.903 0.029 23.923 23.431 0.174 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.008 0.535 3.210 0.024 33.705 5.350 0.040 492.200 9.630 0.071 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.229 6.650 12.426 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.380 50.486 0.374 608.551

2006 135.0

2007 135.0

2005

2004 135.0

135.0

2002 101.0

2003 135.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 10.351 0.087 3.029 5.314 0.045 20.894 1.761 0.015 31.180 17.426 0.146 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.164 3.085 3.903 0.033 23.923 23.431 0.197 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.009 0.535 3.210 0.027 33.705 5.350 0.045 492.200 9.630 0.081 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.260 6.650 12.426 0.104 78.521 7.111 0.060 523.380 50.486 0.424 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.100 3.029 5.314 0.052 20.894 1.761 0.017 31.180 17.426 0.169 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.190 3.085 3.903 0.038 23.923 23.431 0.227 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.010 0.535 3.210 0.031 33.705 5.350 0.052 492.200 9.630 0.093 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.300 6.650 12.426 0.121 78.521 7.111 0.069 523.380 50.486 0.490 608.551

Pipeline 10.351 0.113 3.029 5.314 0.058 20.894 1.761 0.019 31.180 17.426 0.189 55.103

Platforms 19.528 0.212 3.085 3.903 0.042 23.923 23.431 0.255 27.008

Production Wells 1.070 0.012 0.535 3.210 0.035 33.705 5.350 0.058 492.200 9.630 0.105 526.440

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 30.949 0.336 6.650 12.426 0.135 78.521 7.111 0.077 523.380 50.486 0.549 608.551

2010 92.0

2008 119.0

2009 103.0

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.5.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea BC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.09 0.045 0.27 2.807 0.456 42.96 0.813 45.812

1999 0 10.35 3.029 5.31 20.894 1.761 31.18 17.426 55.103

2000 0 11.12 3.165 5.58 23.048 1.961 49.58 18.662 75.793

2001 0 14.97 3.841 6.91 33.820 2.961 141.58 24.841 179.241

2002 101.0 20.75 0.205 4.857 8.90 0.088 49.977 4.461 0.044 279.58 34.110 0.338 334.413

2003 135.0 28.45 0.211 6.210 11.56 0.086 71.520 6.461 0.048 463.58 46.470 0.344 541.310

2004 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2005 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2006 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2007 135.0 30.95 0.229 6.650 12.43 0.092 78.521 7.111 0.053 523.38 50.486 0.374 608.551

2008 119.0 30.95 0.260 6.650 12.43 0.104 78.521 7.111 0.060 523.38 50.486 0.424 608.551

2009 103.0 30.95 0.300 6.650 12.43 0.121 78.521 7.111 0.069 523.38 50.486 0.490 608.551

2010 92.0 30.95 0.336 6.650 12.43 0.135 78.521 7.111 0.077 523.38 50.486 0.549 608.551

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsT.4.5.12 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.1 

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency

05

101520253035404550556065

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.2 

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_5 Chukchi BC.xlsF.4.5.3 

Chukchi Sea BC Spill Index

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600650

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.6.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 0.928 2.256 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 0.924 2.278 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 0.921 2.303 1.TotalShallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 Shallow 1.393 2.441 1.087 0.282 5 0.928 0.075 0.00 2.256 0.182 0.07 1.Medium 1.411 2.471 0.962 0.245 60 0.924 0.892 0.05 2.278 2.200 0.85 1.Deep 1.431 2.505 0.841 0.210 135 0.921 2.001 0.12 2.303 5.002 1.94 1.Total 200 2.968 0.17 7.383 2.86 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

Large Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2002200120102003200420052006200720092008

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.1 
Table 4.6.1

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

0.829.55

20.8031.18

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.1 
Table 4.6.2

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

1998 01999 02000 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422001 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422002 0 2.968 0.172 7.383 2.857 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.422003 223 2.968 0.013 0.172 7.383 0.033 2.857 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.024 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.422004 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422005 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422006 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422007 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422008 297 2.968 0.010 0.172 7.383 0.025 2.857 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.422009 262 2.968 0.011 0.172 7.383 0.028 2.857 10.351 0.040 3.029 5.314 0.020 20.894 1.761 0.007 31.180 17.422010 227 2.968 0.013 0.172 7.383 0.033 2.857 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.023 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.42

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.2 
Table 4.6.3

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 0.913 0.182

Total

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 2 0.913 0.182

Total 2

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 8 50 0.913 4.563 0.72 0.182 0.912 5.59

Total 8 50 4.563 0.72 0.912 5.59

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 130 0.913 11.863 1.87 0.182 2.371 14.53

Total 12 130 11.863 1.87 2.371 14.53

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 270 0.913 24.638 3.89 0.182 4.924 30.18

Total 12 270 24.638 3.89 4.924 30.18

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 410 0.913 37.414 5.91 0.182 7.477 45.83

Total 12 410 37.414 5.91 7.477 45.83

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

Shallow 0.866 0.174

Medium 0.884 0.177

Deep 12 482 0.913 43.984 6.95 0.182 8.790 53.88

Total 12 482 43.984 6.95 8.790 53.88

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.4

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 4.563 0.721 0.912 5.589 5.474 6.310

2002 0 11.863 1.874 2.371 14.532 14.234 16.407

2003 223 24.638 0.110 3.893 4.924 0.022 30.183 29.562 0.133 34.076

2004 297 37.414 0.126 5.911 7.477 0.025 45.833 44.891 0.151 51.744

2005 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2006 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2007 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2008 297 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

2009 262 43.984 0.168 6.949 8.790 0.034 53.882 52.774 0.201 60.831

2010 227 43.984 0.194 6.949 8.790 0.039 53.882 52.774 0.232 60.831

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.5

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 50 0.500 0.250 0.13 3.500 1.750 7.88 1.500 0.750 15.00 1.000 0.500 100.00

Total 50 0.250 0.13 1.750 7.88 0.750 15.00 0.500 100.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 130 0.500 0.650 0.33 3.500 4.550 20.48 1.500 1.950 39.00 1.000 1.300 260.00

Total 130 0.650 0.33 4.550 20.48 1.950 39.00 1.300 260.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 270 0.500 1.350 0.68 3.500 9.450 42.53 1.500 4.050 81.00 1.000 2.700 540.00

Total 270 1.350 0.68 9.450 42.53 4.050 81.00 2.700 540.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 410 0.500 2.050 1.03 3.500 14.350 64.58 1.500 6.150 123.00 1.000 4.100 820.00

Total 410 2.050 1.03 14.350 64.58 6.150 123.00 4.100 820.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.6

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

2002 0 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

2003 223 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

2004 297 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

2005 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2006 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2007 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2008 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2009 262 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

2010 227 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.7

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3 3.160 0.095 0.05 22.110 0.663 2.98 9.500 0.285 5.70 5.500 0.165 33.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.8

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

1999 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2000 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.9

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.10

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

1999 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.108 0.054 0.324 3.393 0.528 47.280 0.960 50.727

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.076 0.038 0.229 2.399 0.378 34.380 0.683 36.817

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 10.414 3.061 5.504 22.884 2.061 56.980 17.979 82.925

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 4.563 0.721 0.912 5.589 5.474 6.310

Production Wells 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 15.163 3.875 6.976 34.358 3.011 146.180 25.150 184.414

Pipeline 10.351 3.029 5.314 20.894 1.761 31.180 17.426 55.103

Platforms 11.863 1.874 2.371 14.532 14.234 16.407

Production Wells 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.864 5.229 9.634 55.901 5.011 330.180 37.509 391.310

Pipeline 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.024 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.426 0.078 55.103

Platforms 24.638 0.110 3.893 4.924 0.022 30.183 29.562 0.133 34.076

Production Wells 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 36.339 0.163 7.597 14.288 0.064 93.601 8.511 0.038 652.180 59.138 0.265 753.379

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 37.414 0.126 5.911 7.477 0.025 45.833 44.891 0.151 51.744

Production Wells 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 49.814 0.168 9.966 18.941 0.064 131.302 12.011 0.040 974.180 80.766 0.272 1115.448

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2006 297.0

2007 297.0

2005

2004 297.0

297.0

2002 0

2003 223.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.11

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 10.351 0.035 3.029 5.314 0.018 20.894 1.761 0.006 31.180 17.426 0.059 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.148 6.949 8.790 0.030 53.882 52.774 0.178 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.191 11.184 21.334 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.780 91.889 0.309 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.040 3.029 5.314 0.020 20.894 1.761 0.007 31.180 17.426 0.067 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.168 6.949 8.790 0.034 53.882 52.774 0.201 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.217 11.184 21.334 0.081 150.690 13.811 0.053 1139.780 91.889 0.351 1301.654

Pipeline 10.351 0.046 3.029 5.314 0.023 20.894 1.761 0.008 31.180 17.426 0.077 55.103

Platforms 43.984 0.194 6.949 8.790 0.039 53.882 52.774 0.232 60.831

Production Wells 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 56.745 0.250 11.184 21.334 0.094 150.690 13.811 0.061 1139.780 91.889 0.405 1301.654

2010 227.0

2008 297.0

2009 262.0

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6.12

Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.11 0.054 0.32 3.393 0.528 47.28 0.960 50.727

1999 0 0.08 0.038 0.23 2.399 0.378 34.38 0.683 36.817

2000 0 10.41 3.061 5.50 22.884 2.061 56.98 17.979 82.925

2001 0 15.16 3.875 6.98 34.358 3.011 146.18 25.150 184.414

2002 0 22.86 5.229 9.63 55.901 5.011 330.18 37.509 391.310

2003 223 36.34 0.163 7.597 14.29 0.064 93.601 8.511 0.038 652.18 59.138 0.265 753.379

2004 297 49.81 0.168 9.966 18.94 0.064 131.302 12.011 0.040 974.18 80.766 0.272 1115.448

2005 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2006 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2007 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2008 297 56.74 0.191 11.184 21.33 0.072 150.690 13.811 0.047 1139.78 91.889 0.309 1301.654

2009 262 56.74 0.217 11.184 21.33 0.081 150.690 13.811 0.053 1139.78 91.889 0.351 1301.654

2010 227 56.74 0.250 11.184 21.33 0.094 150.690 13.811 0.061 1139.78 91.889 0.405 1301.654

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsT.4.6.12 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.1 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency

0

20406080

100120

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.2 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6 Chukchi HC.xlsF.4.6.3 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Table 4.6A.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

58 266 4436 14423 58 387 

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Cumm.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Freq

spil

105k

Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 1.802 4.504 5.TotalShallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 Shallow 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 5 1.802 0.145 0.01 4.504 0.362 0.14 5.Medium 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 60 1.802 1.739 0.10 4.504 4.348 1.68 5.Deep 2.799 4.899 2.799 0.700 135 1.802 3.913 0.23 4.504 9.784 3.79 5.Total 200 5.798 0.34 14.494 5.61 

199819992000

Huge Spills

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Water 

Depth

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills Medium Spills 

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

P/L Dia <10" P/L Dia >= 10"

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = A

2002200120102003200420052006200720092008

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.1 
Table 4.6A.1

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L 

17705

Spill

Index

bbl

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

2.57

30.7969.29

102.65

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.1 
Table 4.6A.2

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC P/L Summary

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

Frequency Spills per

10

9

 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103

years

1998 01999 02000 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482001 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482002 0 5.798 0.336 14.494 5.609 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482003 223 5.798 0.026 0.336 14.494 0.065 5.609 20.292 0.091 5.945 17.393 0.078 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482004 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482005 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482006 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482007 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482008 297 5.798 0.020 0.336 14.494 0.049 5.609 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482009 262 5.798 0.022 0.336 14.494 0.055 5.609 20.292 0.077 5.945 17.393 0.066 68.389 5.798 0.022 102.647 43.482010 227 5.798 0.026 0.336 14.494 0.064 5.609 20.292 0.089 5.945 17.393 0.077 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.48

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills 

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spill Medium Spill Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.2 
Table 4.6A.3

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms

158 6130

Cum. Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103

years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 1.504 0.251

Total

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 2 1.504 0.251

Total 2

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 8 50 1.504 7.518 1.19 0.251 1.253 7.68

Total 8 50 7.518 1.19 1.253 7.68

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 130 1.504 19.547 3.09 0.251 3.258 19.97

Total 12 130 19.547 3.09 3.258 19.97

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 270 1.504 40.597 6.41 0.251 6.766 41.48

Total 12 270 40.597 6.41 6.766 41.48

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 410 1.504 61.647 9.74 0.251 10.274 62.98

Total 12 410 61.647 9.74 10.274 62.98

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

Shallow 1.504 0.251

Medium 1.504 0.251

Deep 12 482 1.504 72.473 11.45 0.251 12.079 74.04

Total 12 482 72.473 11.45 12.079 74.04

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2002

2000

2001

Water 

Depth Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

1999

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills Large and Huge Spills

N P Wells

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.3 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.4

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Platforms Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 7.518 1.188 1.253 7.681 8.771 8.869

2002 0 19.547 3.088 3.258 19.970 22.804 23.058

2003 223 40.597 0.182 6.414 6.766 0.030 41.476 47.363 0.212 47.891

2004 297 61.647 0.208 9.740 10.274 0.035 62.983 71.921 0.242 72.723

2005 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2006 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2007 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2008 297 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

2009 262 72.473 0.277 11.451 12.079 0.046 74.043 84.552 0.323 85.494

2010 227 72.473 0.319 11.451 12.079 0.053 74.043 84.552 0.372 85.494

Year

Small and Medium 

Spills Large and Huge Spills All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.4 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.5

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Total

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 50 0.500 0.250 0.13 3.500 1.750 7.88 1.500 0.750 15.00 1.000 0.500 100.00

Total 50 0.250 0.13 1.750 7.88 0.750 15.00 0.500 100.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 130 0.500 0.650 0.33 3.500 4.550 20.48 1.500 1.950 39.00 1.000 1.300 260.00

Total 130 0.650 0.33 4.550 20.48 1.950 39.00 1.300 260.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 270 0.500 1.350 0.68 3.500 9.450 42.53 1.500 4.050 81.00 1.000 2.700 540.00

Total 270 1.350 0.68 9.450 42.53 4.050 81.00 2.700 540.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 410 0.500 2.050 1.03 3.500 14.350 64.58 1.500 6.150 123.00 1.000 4.100 820.00

Total 410 2.050 1.03 14.350 64.58 6.150 123.00 4.100 820.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Shallow 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Medium 0.500 3.500 1.500 1.000

Deep 482 0.500 2.410 1.21 3.500 16.870 75.92 1.500 7.230 144.60 1.000 4.820 964.00

Total 482 2.410 1.21 16.870 75.92 7.230 144.60 4.820 964.00

Water 

Depth

Production Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.5 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.6

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Production Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0

1999 0

2000 0

2001 0 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

2002 0 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

2003 223 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

2004 297 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

2005 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2006 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2007 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2008 297 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

2009 262 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

2010 227 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.6 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.7

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3 3.160 0.095 0.05 22.110 0.663 2.98 9.500 0.285 5.70 5.500 0.165 33.00

Total 3 0.095 0.05 0.663 2.98 0.285 5.70 0.165 33.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 2 3.160 0.063 0.03 22.110 0.442 1.99 9.500 0.190 3.80 5.500 0.110 22.00

Total 2 0.063 0.03 0.442 1.99 0.190 3.80 0.110 22.00

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

Shallow 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Medium 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Deep 3.160 22.110 9.500 5.500

Total

2001

Year

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Water 

Depth

2002

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

1998

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

1999

2000

Exploration Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.7 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.8

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Exploration Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

1999 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2000 0 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.8 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.9

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells

500 4500 20000 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105

wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1 1.300 0.013 0.01 9.080 0.091 0.41 3.900 0.039 0.78 3.900 0.039 7.80

Total 1 0.013 0.01 0.091 0.41 0.039 0.78 0.039 7.80

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Shallow 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Medium 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Deep 1.300 9.080 3.900 3.900

Total

Water 

Depth

Development Wells Blowout

Average Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spill Spill 

>=10000 < 150000 bbl

Spill 

>=150000 bbl

N Wells

Average Spill [bbl] = Average Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

Average Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2000

2001

Year

2002

1999

1998

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.9 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.10

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Development Wells Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

1999 0 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

2000 0

2001 0

2002 0

2003 223

2004 297

2005 297

2006 297

2007 297

2008 297

2009 262

2010 227

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

Year

Large Spill Huge Spill

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.10 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.095 0.047 0.285 2.985 0.450 38.700 0.830 41.732

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.108 0.054 0.324 3.393 0.528 47.280 0.960 50.727

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells 0.013 0.007 0.039 0.409 0.078 8.580 0.130 8.995

Total 0.076 0.038 0.229 2.399 0.378 34.380 0.683 36.817

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.063 0.032 0.190 1.990 0.300 25.800 0.553 27.822

Development Wells

Total 20.355 5.977 17.583 70.379 6.098 128.447 44.035 204.803

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms 7.518 1.188 1.253 7.681 8.771 8.869

Production Wells 0.250 0.125 0.750 7.875 1.250 115.000 2.250 123.000

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.060 7.258 19.396 83.945 7.048 217.647 54.503 308.850

Pipeline 20.292 5.945 17.393 68.389 5.798 102.647 43.482 176.982

Platforms 19.547 3.088 3.258 19.970 22.804 23.058

Production Wells 0.650 0.325 1.950 20.475 3.250 299.000 5.850 319.800

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.488 9.359 22.601 108.834 9.048 401.647 72.137 519.840

Pipeline 20.292 0.091 5.945 17.393 0.078 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.195 176.982

Platforms 40.597 0.182 6.414 6.766 0.030 41.476 47.363 0.212 47.891

Production Wells 1.350 0.006 0.675 4.050 0.018 42.525 6.750 0.030 621.000 12.150 0.054 664.200

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 62.238 0.279 13.035 28.209 0.126 152.390 12.548 0.056 723.647 102.995 0.462 889.072

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 61.647 0.208 9.740 10.274 0.035 62.983 71.921 0.242 72.723

Production Wells 2.050 0.007 1.025 6.150 0.021 64.575 10.250 0.035 943.000 18.450 0.062 1008.600

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 83.989 0.283 16.711 33.817 0.114 195.947 16.048 0.054 1045.647 133.854 0.451 1258.304

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2006 297.0

2007 297.0

2005

2004 297.0

297.0

2002 0

2003 223.0

2000 0

2001 0

1998 0

1999 0

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.11

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

Pipeline 20.292 0.068 5.945 17.393 0.059 68.389 5.798 0.020 102.647 43.482 0.146 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.244 11.451 12.079 0.041 74.043 84.552 0.285 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.008 1.205 7.230 0.024 75.915 12.050 0.041 1108.600 21.690 0.073 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.320 18.601 36.702 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.247 149.724 0.504 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.077 5.945 17.393 0.066 68.389 5.798 0.022 102.647 43.482 0.166 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.277 11.451 12.079 0.046 74.043 84.552 0.323 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.009 1.205 7.230 0.028 75.915 12.050 0.046 1108.600 21.690 0.083 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.363 18.601 36.702 0.140 218.347 17.848 0.068 1211.247 149.724 0.571 1448.195

Pipeline 20.292 0.089 5.945 17.393 0.077 68.389 5.798 0.026 102.647 43.482 0.192 176.982

Platforms 72.473 0.319 11.451 12.079 0.053 74.043 84.552 0.372 85.494

Production Wells 2.410 0.011 1.205 7.230 0.032 75.915 12.050 0.053 1108.600 21.690 0.096 1185.720

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 95.174 0.419 18.601 36.702 0.162 218.347 17.848 0.079 1211.247 149.724 0.660 1448.195

2010 227.0

2008 297.0

2009 262.0

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.11 11/1/2002
Table 4.6A.12

Non Artic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea HC Annual Summary Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced Spill Index [bbl] Frequency Spills per 103years Frequency Spills per 109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

1998 0 0.11 0.054 0.32 3.393 0.528 47.28 0.960 50.727

1999 0 0.08 0.038 0.23 2.399 0.378 34.38 0.683 36.817

2000 0 20.35 5.977 17.58 70.379 6.098 128.45 44.035 204.803

2001 0 28.06 7.258 19.40 83.945 7.048 217.65 54.503 308.850

2002 0 40.49 9.359 22.60 108.834 9.048 401.65 72.137 519.840

2003 223 62.24 0.279 13.035 28.21 0.126 152.390 12.548 0.056 723.65 102.995 0.462 889.072

2004 297 83.99 0.283 16.711 33.82 0.114 195.947 16.048 0.054 1045.65 133.854 0.451 1258.304

2005 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2006 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2007 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2008 297 95.17 0.320 18.601 36.70 0.124 218.347 17.848 0.060 1211.25 149.724 0.504 1448.195

2009 262 95.17 0.363 18.601 36.70 0.140 218.347 17.848 0.068 1211.25 149.724 0.571 1448.195

2010 227 95.17 0.419 18.601 36.70 0.162 218.347 17.848 0.079 1211.25 149.724 0.660 1448.195

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spill

Year

Huge Spill Small and Medium 

Spills

Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsT.4.6A.12 11/1/2002
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.1 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency - Non Arctic

0

102030405060708090

100110120130140150

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.2 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Non Arctic

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.3 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index - Non Arctic

0

100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge SpillLarge SpillSmall and Medium Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.4 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency 

0

102030405060708090

100110120130140150

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.5 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Bercha Group D4_6A Chukchi HC Non Arctic.xlsF.4.6A.6 

Chukchi Sea HC Spill Index

0

100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic SpillsArctic Spills
Table 5.1

Summary of Spill Indicators for All Scenarios

Year2016 

Year2019 

Year2024 

Year2024 

Year2024 

Year2010 

Year2010 

Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale All Sale All Non Arctic Base Case High Case 

SM 8.41 8.51 8.21 25.14 43.11 30.95 56.74 

L 3.38 3.32 3.15 9.85 17.83 12.43 21.33 

H 2.09 2.07 1.99 6.16 8.31 7.11 13.81 

All 13.89 13.90 13.35 41.14 69.25 50.49 91.89 

SM 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.34 0.58 0.34 0.25 

L 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.13 0.24 0.14 0.09 

H 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.06 

All 0.29 0.33 0.35 0.55 0.93 0.55 0.40 

Maximum Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced (year varies) All 2.02 2.47 2.05 2.05 3.39 0.55 0.40 

SM 2 2 2 5 9 7 11 

L 23 23 22 67 102 79 151 

H 165 165 162 491 529 523 1140 

All 190 189 185 564 640 609 1302 

Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Size

bbl x 1000

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.1 
Table 5.2

Composition of Spill Indicators

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platforms Wells TO

10.15 21.72 9.27 41.14 17.43 52.77 21.69 9

25% 53% 23% 100% 19% 57% 24% 10

0.14 0.29 0.12 0.55 0.08 0.23 0.10 0

25% 53% 23% 100% 19% 57% 24% 10

32 25 507 564 55 61 1186 1

6% 4% 90% 100% 4% 5% 91% 10

Chukchi Sea

SPILL INDICATORS Sale All - Year 2024 High Case - Year 2010

Spill Frequency per 10^3 yearsSpill Frequency per 10^9 bbl producedSpill Index [bbl]

Beaufort Sea

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.2 
Table 5.3

Composition of Spill Indicators

P/L Platforms Wells TOTAL P/L Platform

Monte Carlo 15.55 25.11 9.27 49.93 21.18 67.03 

Expected Value 10.15 21.72 9.27 41.14 17.43 52.77 

Difference 53% 16% 0% 21% 22% 27% 

Monte Carlo 0.21 0.34 0.12 0.67 0.09 0.3 

Expected Value 0.14 0.29 0.12 0.55 0.08 0.23 

Difference 55% 17% 0% 23% 17% 29% 

Monte Carlo 56 29 507 592 73 76 

Expected Value 32 25 507 564 55 61 

Difference 76% 15% 0% 5% 32% 25% 

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl 

produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Chu

SPILL INDICATORS Sale All - Year 2024 High Cas

Beaufort Sea

ITEM 

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsT.5.3 
Figure 5.1

Baufort Sea Sale All - 2024 year - Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

25%

52% 23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

52%

25%

23%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.55

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

6% 4%

90%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 564

41.14

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.1 11/1/2002
Figure 5.2

Baufort Sea Sale All - 2024 year - Spill Indicators

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

61%

24%

15%

SM L H

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

24%

61% 15%

SM L H

0.55

Beaufort Sea-Sale All - 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill size x 1000 bbl

1%

12%

87%

SM L H

564

41.14

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.2 11/1/2002
Figure 5.3

Chukchi Sea High Case - 2010 year - Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

19%

57%

24%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 91.89

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

19%

57%

24%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 0.40

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

5% 4%

91%

P/L

Platforms

Wells 1302

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.3 11/1/2002
Figure 5.4

Chukchi Sea High Case - 2010 year - Spill Indicators

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

for Spill size x 1000

62%

23%

15%

SM L H

91.89

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

for Spill size X 1000

62%

23%

15%

SM L H

0.40

Chukchi Sea-High Case - 2010

 Spill Index [bbl]

for Spill Size x 1000

1%

13%

86%

SM L H

1302

Bercha Group D5 Conclusions.xlsF.5.4 11/1/2002