OCS Study MMS 2006-033

FINAL TASK 1 REPORT

VOLUME II: APPENDICES

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their 

Variability for the Chukchi Sea – Fault Tree Method

MMS Contract Number 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

By

Bercha International Inc.

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

 U.S. Department of the Interior

 Minerals Management Service

 Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region 

 
OCS Study MMS 2006-033

FINAL TASK 1 REPORT

VOLUME II: APPENDICES

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their 

Variability for the Chukchi Sea – Fault Tree Method

October, 2006

Principal Investigator: Dr. Frank G. Bercha, P.Eng. 

Bercha International Inc.

2926 Parkdale Boulevard N.W.

Calgary, Alberta, T2N 3S9, Canada

Email: berchaf@berchagroup.com

This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), 

Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, under Contract No.

1435-01-05-CT-39348, as part of the MMS Alaska Environmental Studies Program.

DISCLAIMER

The opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report or product are those of 

the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior, nor does 

mention of products constitute endorsement or recommendations for use by the Federal Government. 
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

Ap.1

APPENDICES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

T.0 Table of Contents..........................................................................Ap.1

F.0 Flow Chart...................................................................................Ap.5

APPENDIX TITLE

1 Historical Data Analysis

T.1.1 Analysis of GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size

T.1.2 Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline

T.1.3 GOM OCS Pipeline Spills Statistics Summary (1972-1999)

T.1.4 Pipeline Spill Frequency Triangular Distribution Properties

T.1.5 Analysis of GOM OCS Platform Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size 

(1972-1999)

T.1.6 Causal and Spill Size Distribution of GOM OCS Platform Spills (1972-1999)

T.1.7 Platform Spill Frequency Triangular Distribution Properties

T.1.8 Well Blowout Historical Spill Size Distribution

T.1.9 Well Blowout Frequency Triangular Distribution Properties

2 Fault Tree Analysis

T.2.1 Pipeline Arctic Effect Derivation Summary

T.2.2 Pipeline Arctic Effect Distribution Derivation Summary

T2.2A Arctic Pipeline Spill Frequencies Expected Value Summary

T.2.3 Arctic Pipeline Small Spill Frequencies

T.2.4 Arctic Pipeline Medium Spill Frequencies

T.2.5 Arctic Pipeline Large Spill Frequencies

T.2.6 Arctic Pipeline Huge Spill Frequencies

T.2.7 Platform Arctic Effect Derivation Summary

T.2.8 Platform Arctic Effect Distribution Derivation Summary

T2.8A Arctic Platforms Spill Frequency Expected Value Summary

T.2.9 Arctic Platform Small and Medium Spill Frequencies

T.2.10 Arctic Platform Large and Huge Spill Frequencies

T.2.11 Well Fault Tree Analysis Arctic Effect Summary

T.2.12 Arctic Well Blowout Frequencies

T.2.13 Summary of Spill Size Distribution Parameters

F.2.1 Small Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

F.2.2 Medium Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

F.2.3 Large Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

F.2.4 Huge Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

F.2.5 Spill Frequencies Platform Fault Tree

3 Hazard Scenarios

T.3.1 Chukchi Sea Development Data (2009-2044)

T.3.1.A Chukchi Sea Development Parameter Ranges (2009-2044)
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

Ap.2

4 Spill Occurrence

4.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea

T.4.1.1 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea - Pipeline

T.4.1.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.1.3 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms

T.4.1.4 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms - Summary

T.4.1.5 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells

T.4.1.6 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.1.7 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells

T.4.1.8 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.1.9 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells

T.4.1.10 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.1.11 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Wells - Summary

T.4.1.12 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

T.4.1.13 Arctic Spill Occurrence - Annual Summary

T.4.1.14 Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.15 LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.16 LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.17 LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.18 LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.19 LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.1.20 Composition of Spill Indicators Year 2024

T.4.1.21 Composition of Spill Indicators LOF Average

F.4.1.1 Spill Frequency

F.4.1.2 Spill Frequency per 10

9

 bbl Produced

F.4.1.3 Spill Index

F.4.1.4 Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.1.5 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.1.6 Spill Index - P/L

F.4.1.7 Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.1.8 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.1.9 Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.1.10 Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.1.11 Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.1.12 Spill Index - Wells

F.4.1.13 Spill Indicators - CDF Year 2024

F.4.1.14 Spill Frequency - CDF

F.4.1.15 Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF

F.4.1.16 Spill Index - CDF

F.4.1.17 Spill Indicators - Year 2024

F.4.1.18 Spill Indicators - LOF Average
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

Ap.3

4.2 Arctic Spill Occurrence – Chukchi Sea Non Arctic

T.4.2.1 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Chukchi Sea - Pipeline

T.4.2.2 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Pipeline - Summary

T.4.2.3 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms

T.4.2.4 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms - Summary

T.4.2.5 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells

T.4.2.6 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells - Summary

T.4.2.7 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells

T.4.2.8 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells - Summary

T.4.2.9 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells

T.4.2.10 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells - Summary

T.4.2.11 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Wells - Summary

T.4.2.12 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

T.4.2.13 Non Arctic Spill Occurrence non Non Arctic - Annual Summary

T.4.2.14 Non Arctic - Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.15 Non Arctic - LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.16 Non Arctic - LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.17 Non Arctic - LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.18 Non Arctic - LOF Average - Platforms+Wells - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.19 Non Arctic - LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

T.4.2.20 Non Arctic Composition of Spill Indicators - Year 2024

T.4.2.21 Non Arctic Composition of Spill Indicators - LOF Average

F.4.2.1 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency

F.4.2.2 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.4.2.3 Non Arctic - Spill Index

F.4.2.4 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency - P/L

F.4.2.5 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - P/L

F.4.2.6 Non Arctic - Spill Index - P/L

F.4.2.7 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency - Platforms

F.4.2.8 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Platforms

F.4.2.9 Non Arctic - Spill Index - Platforms

F.4.2.10 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency - Wells

F.4.2.11 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced - Wells

F.4.2.12 Non Arctic - Spill Index - Wells

F.4.2.13 Non Arctic - Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

F.4.2.14 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency - CDF

F.4.2.15 Non Arctic - Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF

F.4.2.16 Non Arctic - Spill Index - CDF

F.4.2.17 Non Arctic - Spill Indicators - Year 2024

F.4.2.18 Non Arctic - Spill Indicators - LOF Average
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

Ap.4

5 Conclusions

T.5.1 Summary of Life of Field Average Spill Indicators by Spill Source and Size

F.5.1 LOF Spill indicators - by Spill Size

F.5.2 LOF Spill indicators - by Source

F.5.3 Chukchi Sea Spill Frequency

F.5.4 Chukchi Sea Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

F.5.5 Chukchi Sea Spill Index
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

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October, 2006

Ap.5

Figure F.0

Flow Chart

Fault Tree Analysis Hazard Scenarios Spill Occurrence

Spill Size

Frequency and Cause Arctic Spill Frequency Annual Annual 

Small Spill 50-99 bbl Shallow Water Depth <10 m Frequency

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

<10" Dia

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m Spill Index 

Medium Spill 100-999 bbl LOF Average Frequency

Pipeline

Large Spill 1000-9999 bbl LOF Av Freq per 109

 bbl Produced

Huge Spill >= 10000 bbl LOF Average Spill Index

>=10" Dia

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Large and Huge Spills

Small and Medium Spills Shallow Water Depth <10 m

Large Spill Medium Water Depth >=10<30 m

Deep Water Depth >=30<60 m

Spill 10000-149999 bbl

Spill >=150000 bbl

Historical Data Analysis

Platform

Chukchi Sea

Non Arctic

Chukchi Sea

Facility

Development Well Drilling

Production Well

Exploration Well Drilling
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

APPENDIX 1

Historical Data Analysis
Table 1.1

Analysis of GOM OCS Pipeline Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S M L H SM LH

CORROSION 4 1 2 1 3 1

External 1 80 1 1

Internal 3 100 5000 414 2 1 2 1

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 16 2 5 6 3 7 9

Anchor Impact 10 19833 65 50 300 900 323 15576 2000 800 1211 2 4 2 2 6 4

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 1 3200 1 1

Trawl/Fishing Net 5 4000 100 14423 4569 4533 1 3 1 1 4

OPERATION IMPACT 4 3 1 3 1

Rig Anchoring 1 50 1 1

Work Boat Anchoring 3 50 5100 50 2 1 2 1

MECHANICAL 2 2 2

Connection Failure 1 135 1 1

Material Failure 1 210 1 1

NATURAL HAZARD 4 1 1 2 2 2

Mud Slide 3 250 80 8212 1 1 1 2 1

Storm/ Hurricane 1 3500 1 1

ARCTIC

Ice Gouging

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Other

UNKNOWN 2 119 190 2 2

TOTALS 32 7 12 10 3 19 13

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

NUMBER

OF SPILLS

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT101
Table 1.2

Distribution and Frequency of Historical Spills - Pipeline HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

[km-years]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^5km-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

[km-years]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^5km-year

CORROSION 15.79 3 1.6027 7.69 1 0.5342

External 5.26 1 0.5342

Internal 10.53 2 1.0685 7.69 1 0.5342

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 36.84 7 3.7397 69.23 9 4.8081

Anchor Impact 31.58 6 3.2054 30.77 4 2.1369

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 1 0.5342

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.26 1 0.0534 30.77 4 2.1369

OPERATION IMPACT 15.79 3 1.6027 7.69 1 0.5342

Rig Anchoring 5.26 1 0.5342

Work Boat Anchoring 10.53 2 1.0685 7.69 1 0.5342

MECHANICAL 10.53 2 1.0685

Connection Failure 5.26 1 0.5342

Material Failure 5.26 1 0.5342

NATURAL HAZARD 10.53 2 1.0685 15.38 2 1.0685

Mud Slide 10.53 2 1.0685 7.69 1 0.5342

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 1 0.5342

ARCTIC

Ice Gouging

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Other

UNKNOWN 10.53 2 1.0685

TOTALS 100.00 19 10.1505 100.00 13 6.9451

Large and Huge Spills

>=1000 bbl

187183 187183

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT102
Table 1.3

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills Statistics Summary (1972-1999)

Spill Statistics Exposure Frequency

By Pipe Diameter

< 10" 16 105,336 15.1894

>= 10" 16 81,847 19.5488

By Spill Size

Small 50-99 bbl 6 187,183 3.2054

Medium 100 - 999 bbl 13 187,183 6.9451

Large 1000 - 9999 bbl 10 187,183 5.3424

Huge >=10000 bbl 3 187,183 1.6027

By Diameter, By Spill Size

< 10" Small 50-99 bbl 4 105,336 3.7974

Medium 100 - 999 bbl 7 105,336 6.6454

Large 1000 - 9999 bbl 4 105,336 3.7974

Huge >=10000 bbl 1 105,336 0.9493

>= 10" Small <100 bbl 2 81,847 2.4436

Medium 100 - 999 bbl 6 81,847 7.3308

Large 1000 - 9999 bbl 6 81,847 7.3308

Huge >=10000 bbl 2 81,847 2.4436

*14 of the 32 records have both MIN_WATER_DEPTH and MAX_WATER_DEPTH set to "0".

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills, Categorized 1972-99

Number of Spills km-years spills per

10^5 km-years

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT103
Table 1.4

Pipeline Spill Frequency Triangular Distribution Properties

Historical Low Mode High Expected

By Diameter, By Spill Size

<10" Small 0 2.57 3.7974 0 1.6329 9.7592 5.1720

Medium 0 2.57 6.6454 0 2.8575 17.0786 9.0510

Large 0 2.57 3.7974 0 1.6329 9.7592 5.1720

Huge 0 2.57 0.9493 0 0.4082 2.4398 1.2930

>=10" Small 0 2.57 2.4436 0 1.0507 6.2800 3.3282

Medium 0 2.57 7.3308 0 3.1522 18.8401 9.9846

Large 0 2.57 7.3308 0 3.1522 18.8401 9.9846

Huge 0 2.57 2.4436 0 1.0507 6.2800 3.3282

GOM OCS Pipeline Spills,

Categorized 1972-99

Frequency

spill per 10^5 km-years Low

Factor

High

Factor

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT104
Table 1.5

Analysis of GOM OCS Platform Spill Data for Causal Distribution and Spill Size (1972-1999)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 S M L H SM LH

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 13 130 50 120 104 60 1456 125 50 50 55 400 280 75 6 6 1 12 1

STORAGE TANK RLS. 3 9935 7000 435 1 2 1 2

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 1 58 1 1

HURRICANE/STORM 2 75 66 2 2

COLLISION 2 600 108 2 2

ARCTIC

Ice Force

Facility Low Temperature

Other

TOTALS 21 9 9 3 18 3

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

SPILL SIZE

BBL

NUMBER

OF SPILLS

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT105
Table 1.6

Causal and Spill Size Distribution of GOM OCS Platform Spills (1972-1999) HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSURE

[well-years]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^4well-year

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

NUMBER 

OF 

SPILLS

EXPOSU

RE

[wellyears]

FREQUENCY

spill per

10^4well-year

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 12 1.0024 33.33 1 0.0835

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 1 0.0835 66.67 2 0.1671

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 1 0.0835

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 2 0.1671

COLLISION 11.11 2 0.1671

ARCTIC

Ice Force

Facility Low Temperature

Other

TOTALS 100.00 18 1.5036 100.00 3 0.2506

119714

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

Small and Medium Spills

55-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

>=1000 bbl

119714

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT106
Table 1.7

Platform Spill Frequency Triangular Distribution Properties

spill per 10^4well-year 0 2.88 1.5036 0.0000 0.1804 4.3303 2.1571

spill per 10^4well-year 0 2.88 0.2506 0.0000 0.0301 0.7217 0.3595

Frequency

Unit

Low

Factor

High

Factor

Mode High Expected

Large and Huge Spills

>=1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Historical Low

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT107
Table 1.8

Well Blowout Historical Spill Size Distribution

PRODUCTION WELL

spills

per 104

well-year

0.15 1.03 1.18 0.44 0.29 1.91

EXPLORATION WELL

DRILLING

spills

per 104

wells

1.97 13.75 15.72 5.91 3.42 25.05

DEVELOPMENT WELL

DRILLING

spills

per 104

wells

0.65 4.57 5.22 1.96 1.96 9.15All spills

HISTORICAL FREQUENCY

Spills >=150000 bbl

EVENT

FREQUENCY UNIT

Small, Medium, and Large Spills

50-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

Spills 10000-149999 bbl

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT108
Table 1.9

Well Blowout Frequency Triangular Distribution Properties

Historical Low Mode High Expected

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 0.147 0.066 0.148 0.227 0.147

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 1.966 0.863 1.032 4.002 2.262

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 0.654 0.286 0.526 1.151 0.692

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 1.028 0.460 1.037 1.588 1.026

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 13.754 6.039 7.220 28.001 15.824

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 4.570 1.998 3.671 8.041 4.833

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 1.175 0.526 1.185 1.815 1.173

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 15.719 6.903 8.252 32.003 18.086

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 5.224 2.284 4.197 9.192 5.525

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 0.441 0.197 0.444 0.681 0.440

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 5.909 2.595 3.102 12.031 6.799

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 1.963 0.858 1.577 3.454 2.076

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.448 1.545 0.294 0.132 0.296 0.454 0.293

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.439 2.036 3.421 1.502 1.796 6.965 3.936

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.437 1.760 1.963 0.858 1.577 3.454 2.076

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small, Medium and Large Spills

50-9999 bbl

Spill 10000-149999 bbl

Spill >=150000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

FREQUENCY

UNIT EVENT

Frequencies

Low

Factor

High

Factor

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT109
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

APPENDIX 2

Fault Tree Analysis
Table 2.1

Pipeline Arctic Effect Derivation Summary

Shallow Medium Deep

External All (30) (30) (30) Low temperature and bio effects. Extra smart pigging.

Internal All (30) (30) (30) Extra smart pigging.

Anchor Impact All (50) (50) (50) Low traffic.

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (50) (50) (50) Low facility density.

Trawl/Fishing Net All (50) (60) (70) Low fishing activity. Less bottom fishing in deep water.

Rig Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) Low marine traffic during ice season (8 months).

Work Boat Anchoring All (20) (20) (20) Low work boat traffic during ice season (8 months). 

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (60) (50) (40) Gradient low. Mud slide potential (gradient) increases with water 

depth.

Storm/ Hurricane All (50) (50) (50) Fewer severe storms.

Expected Expected Expected

Mode Mode Mode

0.3495 0.2796

0.0680 0.0544

0.6178 0.4943

0.1210 0.0968

1.3438 1.0750

0.2610 0.2088

0.3762 0.3010

0.0730 0.0584

0.0021

0.0012

0.0038

0.0020

0.0082

0.0045

0.0023

0.0012

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008 0.0008

0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

0.0016 0.0016 0.0016

0.0009 0.0009 0.0009

0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

0.0880 0.0700 0.0001

0.0173 0.0137 0.0001

0.1556 0.1238 0.0002

0.0309 0.0243 0.0001

0.3384 0.2692 0.0004

0.0666 0.0524 0.0002

0.0947 0.0754 0.0001

0.0186 0.0147 0.0001

Reason

Freq. Increment per 10^5 km-year

Spill 

Size

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION Historical Expected Frequency Change %

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Only in shallow water. Average frequency of 2 scours/mile^2 and 100 

ft of bridge length with 10% conditional P/L failure probability. The 

same spill size distribution as above.

All water depth. The failure frequency is 20% of that of Strudel Scour.

Ice Gouging

Ice gouge failure rate calculated using exponential failure distribution 

for 2.5-m cover, 0.2-m average gouge depth, 2 gouges per km-yr 

flux. Spill size Distribution explained in text Section 2.5.2. Medium 

depth has 0.8 as many gouges as shallow.

S

M

L

H

Other

Thaw Settlement

Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

No thaw settlement expected in Chukchi OCS. 

To be assessed as 25% of above.

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

S

M

L

H

L

H

S

M

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT201
Table 2.2

Pipeline Arctic Effect Distribution Derivation Summary

Min Mode Max Min Mode Max Min Mode Max

External All (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10)

Internal All (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10) (90) (30) (10)

Anchor Impact All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

Trawl/Fishing Net All (90) (50) (10) (90) (60) (10) (90) (70) (10)

Rig Anchoring All (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10)

Work Boat Anchoring All (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10) (50) (20) (10)

Connection Failure All

Material Failure All

Mud Slide All (90) (60) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (40) (10)

Storm/ Hurricane All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

S 0.0060 0.0680 0.8290 0.0048 0.0544 0.6632

M 0.0090 0.1210 1.4670 0.0072 0.0968 1.1736

L 0.0210 0.2610 3.1900 0.0168 0.2088 2.5520

H 0.0060 0.0730 0.8930 0.0048 0.0584 0.7144

S 0.0004 0.0012 0.0044

M 0.0006 0.0020 0.0078

L 0.0014 0.0045 0.0170

H 0.0004 0.0012 0.0048

S 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088 0.00007 0.00023 0.00088

M 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156 0.00013 0.00041 0.00156

L 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340 0.00028 0.00089 0.00340

H 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095 0.00008 0.00025 0.00095

S

M

L

H

S 0.00161 0.01735 0.20858 0.00122 0.01366 0.16602 0.00002 0.00006 0.00022

M 0.00244 0.03086 0.36910 0.00183 0.02430 0.29379 0.00003 0.00010 0.00039

L 0.00567 0.06659 0.80260 0.00427 0.05242 0.63885 0.00007 0.00022 0.00085

H 0.00162 0.01862 0.22468 0.00122 0.01466 0.17884 0.00002 0.00006 0.00024

Other

CORROSION

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

OPERATION IMPACT

MECHANICAL

NATURAL HAZARD

ARCTIC

Strudel Scour

Upheaval Buckling

Thaw Settlement

Frequency Increment per 10^5 km-year

Ice Gouging

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

Shallow Medium Deep

Spill Frequency Change %

Size

Bercha Group C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT202 Milan Cerovsek 04/01/2005
Table 2.2A

Arctic Pipeline Spill Frequencies Expected Value Summary

Shallow Medium Deep Shallow Medium Deep

SMALL SPILLS 50-99 bbl 5.172 3.773 3.688 3.345 3.328 2.585 2.498 2.152

MEDIUM SPILLS 100-999 bbl 9.051 6.610 6.461 5.853 9.985 7.212 7.063 6.457

LARGE SPILLS 1000-9999 bbl 5.172 4.374 4.003 2.635 9.985 6.869 6.475 5.085

HUGE SPILLS =>10000 bbl 1.293 1.144 1.041 0.659 3.328 2.199 2.087 1.695

Arctic Frequency Pipeline Spill Size

Historical

Frequency

spills per

105km-year

Historical

Frequency

spills per

105km-year

P/L Dia <10"

Arctic Frequency

P/L Dia >=10"

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT202A
Table 2.3

Arctic Pipeline Small Spill Frequencies

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 15.79 0.817 (0.375) 0.442 11.71 (0.375) 0.442 11.98 (0.375) 0.442 13.21 0.526 (0.241) 0.284 11.00 (0.241) 0.284 11.38 (0.241) 0.284 13.21

External 5.26 0.272 (0.125) 0.147 3.90 (0.125) 0.147 3.99 (0.125) 0.147 4.40 0.175 (0.080) 0.095 3.67 (0.080) 0.095 3.79 (0.080) 0.095 4.40

Internal 10.53 0.544 (0.250) 0.294 7.81 (0.250) 0.294 7.98 (0.250) 0.294 8.81 0.350 (0.161) 0.190 7.33 (0.161) 0.190 7.59 (0.161) 0.190 8.80

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 36.84 1.905 (0.953) 0.953 25.25 (0.958) 0.947 25.68 (0.964) 0.942 28.15 1.226 (0.613) 0.613 23.72 (0.617) 0.609 24.40 (0.620) 0.606 28.15

Anchor Impact 31.58 1.633 (0.817) 0.817 21.65 (0.817) 0.817 22.14 (0.817) 0.817 24.42 1.051 (0.526) 0.526 20.33 (0.526) 0.526 21.04 (0.526) 0.526 24.41

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.26 0.272 (0.136) 0.136 3.61 (0.142) 0.130 3.54 (0.147) 0.125 3.74 0.175 (0.088) 0.088 3.39 (0.091) 0.084 3.36 (0.095) 0.080 3.74

OPERATION IMPACT 15.79 0.817 (0.228) 0.588 15.60 (0.228) 0.588 15.95 (0.228) 0.588 17.59 0.526 (0.147) 0.379 14.65 (0.147) 0.379 15.16 (0.147) 0.379 17.59

Rig Anchoring 5.26 0.272 (0.076) 0.196 5.20 (0.076) 0.196 5.32 (0.076) 0.196 5.86 0.175 (0.049) 0.126 4.88 (0.049) 0.126 5.05 (0.049) 0.126 5.86

Work Boat Anchoring 10.53 0.544 (0.152) 0.392 10.40 (0.152) 0.392 10.63 (0.152) 0.392 11.73 0.350 (0.098) 0.252 9.77 (0.098) 0.252 10.10 (0.098) 0.252 11.73

MECHANICAL 10.53 0.544 0.544 14.43 0.544 14.76 0.544 16.28 0.350 0.350 13.55 0.350 14.02 0.350 16.28

Connection Failure 5.26 0.272 0.272 7.22 0.272 7.38 0.272 8.14 0.175 0.175 6.78 0.175 7.01 0.175 8.14

Material Failure 5.26 0.272 0.272 7.22 0.272 7.38 0.272 8.14 0.175 0.175 6.78 0.175 7.01 0.175 8.14

NATURAL HAZARD 10.53 0.544 (0.283) 0.261 6.92 (0.272) 0.272 7.38 (0.261) 0.283 8.48 0.350 (0.182) 0.168 6.50 (0.175) 0.175 7.01 (0.168) 0.182 8.48

Mud Slide 10.53 0.544 (0.283) 0.261 6.92 (0.272) 0.272 7.38 (0.261) 0.283 8.48 0.350 (0.182) 0.168 6.50 (0.175) 0.175 7.01 (0.168) 0.182 8.48

Storm/ Hurricane

ARCTIC 0.440 0.440 11.66 0.350 0.350 9.49 0.001 0.001 0.02 0.440 0.440 17.03 0.350 0.350 14.01 0.001 0.001 0.02

Ice Gouging 0.3495 0.3495 9.26 0.2796 0.2796 7.58 0.3495 0.3495 13.52 0.2796 0.2796 11.19

Strudel Scour 0.0021 0.0021 0.06 0.0021 0.0021 0.08

Upheaval Buckling 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.01 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.0004 0.0004 0.02

Thaw Settlement

Other 0.0880 0.0880 2.33 0.0700 0.0700 1.90 0.0001 0.0001 0.00 0.0880 0.0880 3.41 0.0700 0.0700 2.80 0.0001 0.0001 0.00

UNKNOWN 10.53 0.544 0.544 14.43 0.544 14.76 0.544 16.28 0.350 0.350 13.55 0.350 14.02 0.350 16.28

TOTALS 100.00 5.172 (1.399) 3.773 100.00 (1.484) 3.688 100.00 (1.827) 3.345 100.00 3.328 (0.744) 2.585 100.00 (0.830) 2.498 100.00 (1.176) 2.152 100.00

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

SMALL SPILLS 50-99 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium Deep

P/L Dia >=10"

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT203
Table 2.4

Arctic Pipeline Medium Spill Frequencies

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 15.79 1.429 (0.656) 0.773 11.70 (0.656) 0.773 11.97 (0.656) 0.773 13.21 1.577 (0.724) 0.853 11.83 (0.724) 0.853 12.07 (0.724) 0.853 13.21

External 5.26 0.476 (0.219) 0.258 3.90 (0.219) 0.258 3.99 (0.219) 0.258 4.40 0.526 (0.241) 0.284 3.94 (0.241) 0.284 4.02 (0.241) 0.284 4.40

Internal 10.53 0.953 (0.437) 0.515 7.80 (0.437) 0.515 7.98 (0.437) 0.515 8.81 1.051 (0.482) 0.569 7.88 (0.482) 0.569 8.05 (0.482) 0.569 8.81

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 36.84 3.335 (1.667) 1.667 25.22 (1.677) 1.657 25.65 (1.687) 1.648 28.15 3.679 (1.839) 1.839 25.50 (1.850) 1.828 25.89 (1.861) 1.818 28.15

Anchor Impact 31.58 2.858 (1.429) 1.429 21.62 (1.429) 1.429 22.12 (1.429) 1.429 24.42 3.153 (1.577) 1.577 21.86 (1.577) 1.577 22.32 (1.577) 1.577 24.42

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

Trawl/Fishing Net 5.26 0.476 (0.238) 0.238 3.60 (0.248) 0.228 3.53 (0.258) 0.219 3.74 0.526 (0.263) 0.263 3.64 (0.274) 0.252 3.57 (0.284) 0.241 3.74

OPERATION IMPACT 15.79 1.429 (0.399) 1.030 15.58 (0.399) 1.030 15.94 (0.399) 1.030 17.59 1.577 (0.441) 1.136 15.75 (0.441) 1.136 16.08 (0.441) 1.136 17.59

Rig Anchoring 5.26 0.476 (0.133) 0.343 5.19 (0.133) 0.343 5.31 (0.133) 0.343 5.86 0.526 (0.147) 0.379 5.25 (0.147) 0.379 5.36 (0.147) 0.379 5.86

Work Boat Anchoring 10.53 0.953 (0.266) 0.686 10.38 (0.266) 0.686 10.62 (0.266) 0.686 11.73 1.051 (0.294) 0.757 10.50 (0.294) 0.757 10.72 (0.294) 0.757 11.73

MECHANICAL 10.53 0.953 0.953 14.41 0.953 14.75 0.953 16.28 1.051 1.051 14.57 1.051 14.88 1.051 16.28

Connection Failure 5.26 0.476 0.476 7.21 0.476 7.37 0.476 8.14 0.526 0.526 7.29 0.526 7.44 0.526 8.14

Material Failure 5.26 0.476 0.476 7.21 0.476 7.37 0.476 8.14 0.526 0.526 7.29 0.526 7.44 0.526 8.14

NATURAL HAZARD 10.53 0.953 (0.496) 0.457 6.91 (0.476) 0.476 7.37 (0.457) 0.496 8.48 1.051 (0.547) 0.504 6.98 (0.526) 0.526 7.44 (0.504) 0.547 8.48

Mud Slide 10.53 0.953 (0.496) 0.457 6.91 (0.476) 0.476 7.37 (0.457) 0.496 8.48 1.051 (0.547) 0.504 6.98 (0.526) 0.526 7.44 (0.504) 0.547 8.48

Storm/ Hurricane

ARCTIC 0.778 0.778 11.77 0.619 0.619 9.58 0.001 0.001 0.02 0.778 0.778 10.79 0.619 0.619 8.76 0.001 0.001 0.01

Ice Gouging 0.6178 0.6178 9.35 0.4943 0.4943 7.65 0.6178 0.6178 8.57 0.4943 0.4943 7.00

Strudel Scour 0.0038 0.0038 0.06 0.0038 0.0038 0.05

Upheaval Buckling 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01 0.0008 0.0008 0.01

Thaw Settlement

Other 0.1556 0.1556 2.35 0.1238 0.1238 1.92 0.0002 0.0002 0.00 0.1556 0.1556 2.16 0.1238 0.1238 1.75 0.0002 0.0002 0.00

UNKNOWN 10.53 0.953 0.953 14.41 0.953 14.75 0.953 16.28 1.051 1.051 14.57 1.051 14.88 1.051 16.28

TOTALS 100.00 9.051 (2.441) 6.610 100.00 (2.590) 6.461 100.00 (3.198) 5.853 100.00 9.985 (2.773) 7.212 100.00 (2.921) 7.063 100.00 (3.528) 6.457 100.00

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

MEDIUM SPILLS 100-999 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium Deep

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT204
Table 2.5

Arctic Pipeline Large Spill Frequencies

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 7.69 0.398 (0.183) 0.215 4.92 (0.183) 0.215 5.38 (0.183) 0.215 8.17 0.768 (0.353) 0.415 6.05 (0.353) 0.415 6.42 (0.353) 0.415 8.17

External

Internal 7.69 0.398 (0.183) 0.215 4.92 (0.183) 0.215 5.38 (0.183) 0.215 8.17 0.768 (0.353) 0.415 6.05 (0.353) 0.415 6.42 (0.353) 0.415 8.17

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 3.581 (1.790) 1.790 40.93 (1.823) 1.757 43.90 (1.855) 1.725 65.47 6.912 (3.456) 3.456 50.31 (3.520) 3.393 52.39 (3.582) 3.330 65.49

Anchor Impact 30.77 1.591 (0.796) 0.796 18.19 (0.796) 0.796 19.88 (0.796) 0.796 30.20 3.072 (1.536) 1.536 22.36 (1.536) 1.536 23.72 (1.536) 1.536 30.21

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 4.55 (0.199) 0.199 4.97 (0.199) 0.199 7.55 0.768 (0.384) 0.384 5.59 (0.384) 0.384 5.93 (0.384) 0.384 7.55

Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 1.591 (0.796) 0.796 18.19 (0.829) 0.763 19.05 (0.861) 0.731 27.72 3.072 (1.536) 1.536 22.36 (1.600) 1.472 22.74 (1.662) 1.410 27.73

OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.398 (0.111) 0.287 6.55 (0.111) 0.287 7.16 (0.111) 0.287 10.88 0.768 (0.215) 0.553 8.06 (0.215) 0.553 8.55 (0.215) 0.553 10.88

Rig Anchoring

Work Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.398 (0.111) 0.287 6.55 (0.111) 0.287 7.16 (0.111) 0.287 10.88 0.768 (0.215) 0.553 8.06 (0.215) 0.553 8.55 (0.215) 0.553 10.88

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure

Material Failure

NATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.796 (0.406) 0.390 8.91 (0.398) 0.398 9.94 (0.390) 0.406 15.41 1.536 (0.784) 0.752 10.95 (0.768) 0.768 11.86 (0.752) 0.784 15.42

Mud Slide 7.69 0.398 (0.207) 0.191 4.36 (0.199) 0.199 4.97 (0.191) 0.207 7.86 0.768 (0.400) 0.368 5.36 (0.384) 0.384 5.93 (0.368) 0.400 7.86

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 4.55 (0.199) 0.199 4.97 (0.199) 0.199 7.55 0.768 (0.384) 0.384 5.59 (0.384) 0.384 5.93 (0.384) 0.384 7.55

ARCTIC 1.692 1.692 38.69 1.346 1.346 33.62 0.002 0.002 0.08 1.692 1.692 24.63 1.346 1.346 20.78 0.002 0.002 0.04

Ice Gouging 1.3438 1.3438 30.72 1.0750 1.0750 26.86 1.3438 1.3438 19.56 1.0750 1.0750 16.60

Strudel Scour 0.0082 0.0082 0.19 0.0082 0.0082 0.12

Upheaval Buckling 0.0016 0.0016 0.04 0.0016 0.0016 0.04 0.0016 0.0016 0.06 0.0016 0.0016 0.02 0.0016 0.0016 0.03 0.0016 0.0016 0.03

Thaw Settlement

Other 0.3384 0.3384 7.74 0.2692 0.2692 6.72 0.0004 0.0004 0.02 0.3384 0.3384 4.93 0.2692 0.2692 4.16 0.0004 0.0004 0.01

UNKNOWN

TOTALS 100.00 5.172 (0.798) 4.374 100.00 (1.169) 4.003 100.00 (2.537) 2.635 100.00 9.985 (3.115) 6.869 100.00 (3.509) 6.475 100.00 (4.899) 5.085 100.00

P/L Dia >=10"

Shallow Medium Deep

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

LARGE SPILLS 1000-9999 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT205
Table 2.6

Arctic Pipeline Huge Spill Frequencies

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

CORROSION 7.69 0.099 (0.046) 0.054 4.70 (0.046) 0.054 5.17 (0.046) 0.054 8.17 0.256 (0.118) 0.138 6.30 (0.118) 0.138 6.64 (0.118) 0.138 8.17

External

Internal 7.69 0.099 (0.046) 0.054 4.70 (0.046) 0.054 5.17 (0.046) 0.054 8.17 0.256 (0.118) 0.138 6.30 (0.118) 0.138 6.64 (0.118) 0.138 8.17

THIRD PARTY IMPACT 69.23 0.895 (0.448) 0.448 39.12 (0.456) 0.439 42.20 (0.464) 0.431 65.46 2.304 (1.152) 1.152 52.38 (1.173) 1.131 54.20 (1.194) 1.110 65.50

Anchor Impact 30.77 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 17.39 (0.199) 0.199 19.11 (0.199) 0.199 30.19 1.024 (0.512) 0.512 23.28 (0.512) 0.512 24.54 (0.512) 0.512 30.21

Jackup Rig or Spud Barge 7.69 0.099 (0.050) 0.050 4.35 (0.050) 0.050 4.78 (0.050) 0.050 7.55 0.256 (0.128) 0.128 5.82 (0.128) 0.128 6.13 (0.128) 0.128 7.55

Trawl/Fishing Net 30.77 0.398 (0.199) 0.199 17.39 (0.207) 0.191 18.32 (0.215) 0.183 27.72 1.024 (0.512) 0.512 23.28 (0.533) 0.491 23.52 (0.554) 0.470 27.74

OPERATION IMPACT 7.69 0.099 (0.028) 0.072 6.26 (0.028) 0.072 6.88 (0.028) 0.072 10.88 0.256 (0.072) 0.184 8.39 (0.072) 0.184 8.84 (0.072) 0.184 10.88

Rig Anchoring

Work Boat Anchoring 7.69 0.099 (0.028) 0.072 6.26 (0.028) 0.072 6.88 (0.028) 0.072 10.88 0.256 (0.072) 0.184 8.39 (0.072) 0.184 8.84 (0.072) 0.184 10.88

MECHANICAL

Connection Failure

Material Failure

NATURAL HAZARD 15.38 0.199 (0.102) 0.097 8.51 (0.099) 0.099 9.55 (0.097) 0.102 15.41 0.512 (0.261) 0.251 11.40 (0.256) 0.256 12.27 (0.251) 0.261 15.42

Mud Slide 7.69 0.099 (0.052) 0.048 4.17 (0.050) 0.050 4.78 (0.048) 0.052 7.86 0.256 (0.133) 0.123 5.58 (0.128) 0.128 6.13 (0.123) 0.133 7.87

Storm/ Hurricane 7.69 0.099 (0.050) 0.050 4.35 (0.050) 0.050 4.78 (0.050) 0.050 7.55 0.256 (0.128) 0.128 5.82 (0.128) 0.128 6.13 (0.128) 0.128 7.55

ARCTIC 0.474 0.474 41.40 0.377 0.377 36.19 0.001 0.001 0.09 0.474 0.474 21.54 0.377 0.377 18.06 0.001 0.001 0.03

Ice Gouging 0.3762 0.3762 32.88 0.3010 0.3010 28.91 0.3762 0.3762 17.11 0.3010 0.3010 14.42

Strudel Scour 0.0023 0.0023 0.20 0.0023 0.0023 0.10

Upheaval Buckling 0.0005 0.0005 0.04 0.0005 0.0005 0.04 0.0005 0.0005 0.07 0.0005 0.0005 0.02 0.0005 0.0005 0.02 0.0005 0.0005 0.03

Thaw Settlement

Other 0.0947 0.0947 8.28 0.0754 0.0754 7.24 0.0001 0.0001 0.02 0.0947 0.0947 4.31 0.0754 0.0754 3.61 0.0001 0.0001 0.01

UNKNOWN

TOTALS 100.00 1.293 (0.149) 1.144 100.00 (0.252) 1.041 100.00 (0.634) 0.659 100.00 3.328 (1.129) 2.199 100.00 (1.242) 2.087 100.00 (1.633) 1.695 100.00

Shallow Medium Deep

P/L Dia >=10"

CAUSE 

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

HUGE SPILLS =>10000 bbl

P/L Dia <10"

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

5km-year

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT206
Table 2.7

Platform Arctic Effect Derivation Summary

Shallow Medium Deep

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (20) (20) (20) High safety factor, Monitoring Programs

HURRICANE/STORM All (50) (40) (30) Less severe storms. More intensity in deep water.

COLLISION All (50) (50) (50) Very low traffic density.

Expected Expected Expected

Mode Mode Mode

0.1447 0.2170 0.3256

0.0340 0.0510 0.0765

0.0255 0.0383 0.0575

0.0060 0.0090 0.0135

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.1000 0.1000 0.1000

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0080 0.0080 0.0080

0.0244 0.0316 0.0424

0.0134 0.0151 0.0177

0.0033 0.0046 0.0065

0.0014 0.0017 0.0022

Other

LH

SM

10% of sum of above. 

Assumed fraction of Historical Process Facilities release frequency with 6% for SM 

anfd 3% for LH spill sizes.

Ice Force

LH

SM

Assumed 10,000 year return period ice force causes spill 4% of occurences (96% 

reliability). 85% of the spills are SM.

Facility Low Temperature

LH

SM

Freq. Increment per 10^4 well-year

ARCTIC

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION Reason Spill 

Size

Historical Expected Frequency Change %

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT207
Table 2.8

Platform Arctic Effects Distribution Derivation Summary

Min Mode Max Min Mode Max Min Mode Max

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. All (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10)

STORAGE TANK RLS. All (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10) (60) (30) (10)

STRUCTURAL FAILURE All (60) (20) (10) (60) (20) (10) (60) (20) (10)

HURRICANE/STORM All (90) (50) (10) (90) (40) (10) (90) (30) (10)

COLLISION All (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10) (90) (50) (10)

SM 0.003 0.034 0.340 0.005 0.051 0.510 0.008 0.077 0.765

LH 0.001 0.006 0.060 0.001 0.009 0.090 0.001 0.014 0.135

SM 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.050 0.100 0.150

LH 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 0.008 0.012

SM 0.005 0.013 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.066 0.006 0.018 0.092

LH 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.001 0.002 0.015

Frequency Increment per 10^4 well-year

Facility Low Temperature

Other

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

ARCTIC

Ice Force

Shallow

Spill 

Size

Medium Deep

Frequency Change %

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT208
Table 2.8A

Arctic Platforms Spill Frequency Expected Value Summary

Shallow Medium Deep

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS 50-999 bbl 2.157 1.619 1.704 1.828

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS =>1000 bbl 3.595 0.274 0.288 0.309

Historical

Frequency

spills per

104km-year

Arctic Frequency

Platform Spill Size

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT208A
Table 2.9

Arctic Platform Small and Medium Spill Frequencies Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution % Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 66.67 1.438 (0.488) 0.950 58.65 (0.488) 0.950 55.74 (0.488) 0.950 51.96

STORAGE TANK RLS. 5.56 0.120 (0.041) 0.079 4.89 (0.041) 0.079 4.65 (0.041) 0.079 4.33

STRUCTURAL FAILURE 5.56 0.120 (0.038) 0.082 5.04 (0.038) 0.082 4.79 (0.038) 0.082 4.46

HURRICANE/STORM 11.11 0.240 (0.120) 0.120 7.40 (0.115) 0.125 7.33 (0.110) 0.130 7.09

COLLISION 11.11 0.240 (0.120) 0.120 7.40 (0.120) 0.120 7.03 (0.120) 0.120 6.56

ARCTIC 0.269 0.269 16.62 0.349 0.349 20.46 0.468 0.468 25.60

Ice Force 0.145 0.145 8.94 0.217 0.217 12.74 0.326 0.326 17.81

Facility Low Temperature 0.100 0.100 6.18 0.100 0.100 5.87 0.100 0.100 5.47

Other 0.024 0.024 1.51 0.032 0.032 1.86 0.042 0.042 2.32

TOTALS 100.00 2.157 (0.538) 1.619 100.00 (0.453) 1.704 100.00 (0.329) 1.828 100.00

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

4well-year

SMALL AND MEDIUM SPILLS

50-999 bbl

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT209
Table 2.10

Arctic Platform Large and Huge Spill Frequencies Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution % Frequency Change New Frequency New Distribution %

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

New Distribution

 %

PROCESS FACILITY RLS. 33.33 0.120 (0.041) 0.079 28.85 (0.041) 0.079 27.45 (0.041) 0.079 25.58

STORAGE TANK RLS. 66.67 0.240 (0.081) 0.158 57.70 (0.081) 0.158 54.89 (0.081) 0.158 51.16

STRUCTURAL FAILURE

HURRICANE/STORM

COLLISION

ARCTIC 0.037 0.037 13.44 0.051 0.051 17.66 0.072 0.072 23.27

Ice Force 0.026 0.026 9.31 0.038 0.038 13.28 0.057 0.057 18.57

Facility Low Temperature 0.008 0.008 2.92 0.008 0.008 2.77 0.008 0.008 2.59

Other 0.003 0.003 1.22 0.005 0.005 1.60 0.007 0.007 2.11

TOTALS 100.00 0.360 (0.085) 0.274 100.00 (0.071) 0.288 100.00 (0.050) 0.309 100.00

CAUSE

CLASSIFICATION

HIST. DISTRIBUTION

%

FREQUENCY

spills per

10

4well-year

LARGE AND HUGE SPILLS

=>1000 bbl

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT210
Table 2.11

Well Fault Tree Analysis Arctic Effect Summary

Shallow Medium Deep

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year (30) (30) (30) State of the art now, High QC, High Inspection and Maintenance Requirements

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells (30) (20) (10) Highly qualified drilling contractor. Better logistics support in shallow water.

Reason

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spill 10000-149999 bbl

Spill >=150000 bbl

Historical Expected Frequency 

Change %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

FREQUENCY

UNIT EVENT

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT211
Table 2.12

Arctic Well Blowout Frequencies Frequency Change New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

Frequency

Change

New Frequency

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.147 -0.044 0.103 -0.044 0.103 -0.044 0.103

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 2.262 -0.678 1.583 -0.452 1.809 -0.226 2.035

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 0.692 -0.208 0.484 -0.138 0.554 -0.069 0.623

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 1.026 -0.308 0.718 -0.308 0.718 -0.308 0.718

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 15.824 -4.747 11.077 -3.165 12.659 -1.582 14.242

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 4.833 -1.450 3.383 -0.967 3.867 -0.483 4.350

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.440 -0.132 0.308 -0.132 0.308 -0.132 0.308

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 6.799 -2.040 4.759 -1.360 5.439 -0.680 6.119

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 2.076 -0.623 1.453 -0.415 1.661 -0.208 1.868

PRODUCTION WELL spill per 104 well-year 0.293 -0.088 0.205 -0.088 0.205 -0.088 0.205

EXPLORATION WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 3.936 -1.181 2.755 -0.787 3.149 -0.394 3.543

DEVELOPMENT WELL DRILLING spill per 104 wells 2.076 -0.623 1.453 -0.415 1.661 -0.208 1.868

EVENT FREQUENCY UNIT

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 10000-149999 bbl

Spills >=150000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

HISTORICAL

FREQUENCY

Shallow Medium Deep

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT212
Table 2.13

Summary of Spill Size Distribution Parameters

Spill Size

Spill Expectation Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected

P/L Dia <10" Spill 50 58 99 71 100 226 999 485 1000 4436 9999 5279 10000 14423 20000 14880

P/L Dia > 10" Spill 50 58 99 71 100 387 999 516 1000 3932 9999 5176 10000 17705 20000 15552

Spill Size

Spill Expectation Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected

Platform Spill 50 158 999 452 1000 6130 10000 5631

Spill Size

Spill Expectation Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected Low Mode High Expected

Well Spill 50 500 999 519 1000 4500 9999 5292 10000 20000 150000 68349 150000 200000 250000 200000

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

PLATFORM SPILL VOLUMES

WELL SPILL VOLUMES

Spills 10000-149999 bbl Spills =>150000 bbl Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

PIPELINE SPILL VOLUMES

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsT213
Figure 2.1

Small Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 5.172 3.328 Historical Frequency

S 3.773 2.585 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 3.688 2.498 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 3.345 2.152 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.817 0.526 H 1.905 1.226 H 0.817 0.526 H 0.544 0.350 H 0.544 0.350 H 0.544 0.350 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.442 0.284 S 0.953 0.613 S 0.588 0.379 S 0.544 0.350 S 0.261 0.168 S 0.544 0.350 S 0.440 0.440

M 0.442 0.284 M 0.947 0.609 M 0.588 0.379 M 0.544 0.350 M 0.272 0.175 M 0.544 0.350 M 0.350 0.350

D 0.442 0.284 D 0.942 0.606 D 0.588 0.379 D 0.544 0.350 D 0.283 0.182 D 0.544 0.350 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.272 0.175 H 1.633 1.051 H 0.272 0.175 H 0.272 0.175 H 0.544 0.350 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.147 0.095 S 0.817 0.526 S 0.196 0.126 S 0.272 0.175 S 0.261 0.168 S 0.349 0.349 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.147 0.095 M 0.817 0.526 M 0.196 0.126 M 0.272 0.175 M 0.272 0.175 M 0.280 0.280 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.147 0.095 D 0.817 0.526 D 0.196 0.126 D 0.272 0.175 D 0.283 0.182 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.544 0.350 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.544 0.350 H 0.272 0.175 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.294 0.190 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.392 0.252 S 0.272 0.175 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.002 0.002 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.294 0.190 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.392 0.252 M 0.272 0.175 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.294 0.190 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.392 0.252 D 0.272 0.175 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.272 0.175 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.136 0.088 S 0.088 0.088

M 0.130 0.084 M 0.070 0.070

D 0.125 0.080 D 0.000 0.000

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Small Spill 50-99 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF21
Figure 2.2

Medium Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 9.051 9.985 Historical Frequency

S 6.610 7.212 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 6.461 7.063 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 5.853 6.457 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 1.429 1.577 H 3.335 3.679 H 1.429 1.577 H 0.953 1.051 H 0.953 1.051 H 0.953 1.051 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.773 0.853 S 1.667 1.839 S 1.030 1.136 S 0.953 1.051 S 0.457 0.504 S 0.953 1.051 S 0.778 0.778

M 0.773 0.853 M 1.657 1.828 M 1.030 1.136 M 0.953 1.051 M 0.476 0.526 M 0.953 1.051 M 0.619 0.619

D 0.773 0.853 D 1.648 1.818 D 1.030 1.136 D 0.953 1.051 D 0.496 0.547 D 0.953 1.051 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.476 0.526 H 2.858 3.153 H 0.476 0.526 H 0.476 0.526 H 0.953 1.051 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.258 0.284 S 1.429 1.577 S 0.343 0.379 S 0.476 0.526 S 0.457 0.504 S 0.618 0.618 S 0.001 0.001

M 0.258 0.284 M 1.429 1.577 M 0.343 0.379 M 0.476 0.526 M 0.476 0.526 M 0.494 0.494 M 0.001 0.001

D 0.258 0.284 D 1.429 1.577 D 0.343 0.379 D 0.476 0.526 D 0.496 0.547 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.953 1.051 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.953 1.051 H 0.476 0.526 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.515 0.569 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.686 0.757 S 0.476 0.526 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.004 0.004 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.515 0.569 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.686 0.757 M 0.476 0.526 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.515 0.569 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.686 0.757 D 0.476 0.526 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.476 0.526 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.238 0.263 S 0.156 0.156

M 0.228 0.252 M 0.124 0.124

D 0.219 0.241 D 0.000 0.000

Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Medium Spill 100 - 999 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF22
Figure 2.3

Large Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 5.172 9.985 Historical Frequency

S 4.374 6.869 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 4.003 6.475 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 2.635 5.085 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.398 0.768 H 3.581 6.912 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.796 1.536 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.215 0.415 S 1.790 3.456 S 0.287 0.553 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.390 0.752 S 0.000 0.000 S 1.692 1.692

M 0.215 0.415 M 1.757 3.393 M 0.287 0.553 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.398 0.768 M 0.000 0.000 M 1.346 1.346

D 0.215 0.415 D 1.725 3.330 D 0.287 0.553 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.406 0.784 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.002 0.002

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.000 0.000 H 1.591 3.072 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.796 1.536 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.191 0.368 S 1.344 1.344 S 0.002 0.002

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.796 1.536 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.199 0.384 M 1.075 1.075 M 0.002 0.002

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.796 1.536 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.207 0.400 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.002 0.002

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.398 0.768 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.398 0.768 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.215 0.415 S 0.199 0.384 S 0.287 0.553 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.199 0.384 S 0.008 0.008 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.215 0.415 M 0.199 0.384 M 0.287 0.553 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.199 0.384 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.215 0.415 D 0.199 0.384 D 0.287 0.553 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.199 0.384 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 1.591 3.072 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.796 1.536 S 0.338 0.338

M 0.763 1.472 M 0.269 0.269

D 0.731 1.410 D 0.000 0.000

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Large Spill 1000-9999 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT OPERATION IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF23
Figure 2.4

Huge Spill Frequencies Pipeline Fault Tree

Dia<10" Dia>=10" P/L Size

Note : All Values per 100000 km-year H 1.293 3.328 Historical Frequency

S 1.144 2.199 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.041 2.087 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 0.659 1.695 Deep Water Depth Frequency

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.099 0.256 H 0.895 2.304 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.199 0.512 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.054 0.138 S 0.448 1.152 S 0.072 0.184 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.097 0.251 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.474 0.474

M 0.054 0.138 M 0.439 1.131 M 0.072 0.184 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.099 0.256 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.377 0.377

D 0.054 0.138 D 0.431 1.110 D 0.072 0.184 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.102 0.261 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.001 0.001

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>10" Dia<10" Dia>10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.000 0.000 H 0.398 1.024 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.000 0.000 S 0.199 0.512 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.048 0.123 S 0.376 0.376 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.000 0.000 M 0.199 0.512 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.050 0.128 M 0.301 0.301 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.000 0.000 D 0.199 0.512 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.052 0.133 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.099 0.256 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.099 0.256 H 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.054 0.138 S 0.050 0.128 S 0.072 0.184 S 0.000 0.000 S 0.050 0.128 S 0.002 0.002 S 0.000 0.000

M 0.054 0.138 M 0.050 0.128 M 0.072 0.184 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.050 0.128 M 0.000 0.000 M 0.000 0.000

D 0.054 0.138 D 0.050 0.128 D 0.072 0.184 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.050 0.128 D 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000

Dia<10" Dia>=10" Dia<10" Dia>=10"

H 0.398 1.024 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.199 0.512 S 0.095 0.095

M 0.191 0.491 M 0.075 0.075

D 0.183 0.470 D 0.000 0.000

Thaw Settlement

Connection Failure

Material Failure

Rig Anchoring

THIRD PARTY IMPACT

Other

NATURAL HAZARD

Mud Slide

Storm/ Hurricane

UNKNOWN ARCTIC

Ice Gouging Upheaval Buckling

Strudel Scour

Trawl/Fishing Net

Anchor Impact

Pipeline Huge Spill =>10000 bbl

CORROSION

External

Internal Jackup Rig or Spud Barge

MECHANICAL

Work Boat Anchoring

OPERATION IMPACT

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF24
Figure 2.5

Spill Frequencies Platform Fault Tree

SM

50-999

bbl

LH

=>1000

bbl

Spill Size

Note : All Values per 10000 well-years H 2.157 0.360 Historical Frequency

S 1.619 0.274 Shallow Water Depth Frequency

M 1.704 0.288 Medium Water Depth Frequency

D 1.828 0.309 Deep Water Depth Frequency

SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH SM LH

H 1.438 0.120 H 0.120 0.240 H 0.120 0.000 H 0.240 0.000 H 0.240 0.000 H 0.000 0.000

S 0.950 0.079 S 0.079 0.158 S 0.082 0.000 S 0.120 0.000 S 0.120 0.000 S 0.269 0.037

M 0.950 0.079 M 0.079 0.158 M 0.082 0.000 M 0.125 0.000 M 0.120 0.000 M 0.349 0.051

D 0.950 0.079 D 0.079 0.158 D 0.082 0.000 D 0.130 0.000 D 0.120 0.000 D 0.468 0.072

SM LH

H 0.000 0.000

S 0.145 0.026

M 0.217 0.038

D 0.326 0.057

SM LH

H 0.000 0.000

S 0.100 0.008

M 0.100 0.008

D 0.100 0.008

SM LH

H 0.000 0.000

S 0.024 0.003

M 0.032 0.005

D 0.042 0.007

ARCTIC

Platform Spill

Other

Ice Force

PROCESS FACILITY RLS.

Facility Low Temperature

STORAGE TANK RLS. STRUCTURAL FAILURE HURRICANE/STORM COLLISION

C1_2 Hist Data_FTA.xlsF25
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

APPENDIX 3

Hazard Scenarios
Table 3.1

Chukchi Sea Development Data (2009-2044)

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2

Total 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2

Total 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2

Total 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 6 6 6 6 6

Total 6 6 6 6 6

Shallow

Medium 30 30 30 30

Deep 11 1 1 5 5 6 12 11 17 10 10 60 60 70 70 54.0

Total 11 1 1 5 5 6 12 11 17 10 10 90 90 100 100 54.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 21 1 15 20 6 18 21 38 5 15 60 5 75 70.0

Total 21 1 15 20 6 18 21 38 5 15 90 5 105 70.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 21 1 15 35 6 24 21 59 5 20 60 5 80 82.0

Total 21 1 15 35 6 24 21 59 5 20 90 5 110 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 21 1 15 50 6 30 21 80 5 25 60 5 85 82.0

Total 21 1 15 50 6 30 21 80 5 25 90 5 115 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 12 1 6 56 6 36 12 92 5 30 60 5 90 82.0

Total 12 1 6 56 6 36 12 92 5 30 90 5 120 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 6 1 6 62 36 6 98 30 60 90 82.0

Total 6 1 6 62 36 6 98 30 90 120 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 72.2

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 72.2

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 63.5

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 63.5

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 55.9

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 55.9

2028

2013

2014

2015

2016

2026

2027

2021

2017

2018

2019

2020

2022

2023

2024

2025

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year

Production

Platforms

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Incr. Cum.

2012

2009

2010

2011

Well

Drilling Exploration Development

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Cum.

On Platform

Production

Wells

Subsea

Production

Wells

Total 

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

C3 Hazard Scenarios.xlsT301
Table 3.1

Chukchi Sea Development Data (2009-2044)

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year

Production

Platforms

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Incr. Cum.

Well

Drilling Exploration Development

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Cum.

On Platform

Production

Wells

Subsea

Production

Wells

Total 

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 49.2

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 49.2

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 43.3

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 43.3

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 38.1

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 38.1

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 33.5

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 33.5

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 29.5

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 29.5

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 26.0

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 26.0

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 22.8

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 22.8

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 20.1

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 20.1

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 17.7

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 17.7

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 36 98 30 60 90 15.6

Total 1 62 36 98 30 90 120 15.6

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 62 -6 30 -6 92 30 60 90 13.7

Total 1 62 -6 30 -6 92 30 90 120 13.7

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 -5 57 -6 24 -11 81 30 60 90 12.1

Total 1 -5 57 -6 24 -11 81 30 90 120 12.1

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 -15 42 -6 18 -21 60 30 60 90 10.6

Total 1 -15 42 -6 18 -21 60 30 90 120 10.6

2040

2041

2036

2037

2038

2039

2032

2033

2034

2035

2029

2030

2031

C3 Hazard Scenarios.xlsT301
Table 3.1

Chukchi Sea Development Data (2009-2044)

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year

Production

Platforms

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Incr. Cum.

Well

Drilling Exploration Development

Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Cum.

On Platform

Production

Wells

Subsea

Production

Wells

Total 

Production

Wells

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 -15 27 -6 12 -21 39 30 60 90 9.3

Total 1 -15 27 -6 12 -21 39 30 90 120 9.3

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 -15 12 -6 6 -21 18 30 60 90 8.2

Total 1 -15 12 -6 6 -21 18 30 90 120 8.2

Shallow

Medium 30 30

Deep 1 -6 6 -6 -12 6 30 60 90 7.2

Total 1 -6 6 -6 -12 6 30 90 120 7.2

2044

2042

2043

C3 Hazard Scenarios.xlsT301
Table 3.1A

Chukchi Sea Development Parameter Ranges (2009-2044)

0.80 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.33 1.67 0.33 1.67 0.33 1.67

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2

Total 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2

Total 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep 2

Total 2

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep 1

Total 1

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep

Total

Shallow

Medium

Deep 6 6 5 7 6 6 5 7 6

Total 6 6 5 7 6 6 5 7 6

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 11 1 5 4 6 5 12 10 14 12 17 14 20 17 10 3 17 10 60 20 100 60 70 23 117 70 54.0

Total 11 1 5 4 6 5 12 10 14 12 17 14 20 17 10 3 17 10 90 30 150 90 100 33 167 100 54.0

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 21 1 20 16 24 20 18 14 22 18 38 30 46 38 15 5 25 15 60 20 100 60 75 25 125 75 70.0

Total 21 1 20 16 24 20 18 14 22 18 38 30 46 38 15 5 25 15 90 30 150 90 105 35 175 105 70.0

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 21 1 35 28 42 35 24 19 29 24 59 47 71 59 20 7 33 20 60 20 100 60 80 26 134 80 82.0

Total 21 1 35 28 42 35 24 19 29 24 59 47 71 59 20 7 33 20 90 30 150 90 110 36 184 110 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 21 1 50 40 60 50 30 24 36 30 80 64 96 80 25 8 42 25 60 20 100 60 85 28 142 85 82.0

Total 21 1 50 40 60 50 30 24 36 30 80 64 96 80 25 8 42 25 90 30 150 90 115 38 192 115 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 12 1 56 45 67 56 36 29 43 36 92 74 110 92 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 82.0

Total 12 1 56 45 67 56 36 29 43 36 92 74 110 92 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 82.0

Cum. Cum. Cum.

2010

2011

Well

Drilling Exploration

Development

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Cum. Cum.

2012

2009

2021

2017

2018

2019

2020

2022

2023

2024

2013

2014

2015

2016

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Production

Platforms

Range

Factor

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Range

Factor Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

On Platform

Production

Wells

Subsea

Production

Wells

Total 

Production

Wells Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

C3 Hazard Scenarios.xlsT301A
Table 3.1A

Chukchi Sea Development Parameter Ranges (2009-2044)

0.80 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.33 1.67 0.33 1.67 0.33 1.67

Cum. Cum. Cum.

Well

Drilling Exploration

Development

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Cum. Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Production

Platforms

Range

Factor

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Range

Factor Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

On Platform

Production

Wells

Subsea

Production

Wells

Total 

Production

Wells Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 6 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 82.0

Total 6 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 82.0

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 72.2

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 72.2

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 63.5

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 63.5

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 55.9

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 55.9

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 49.2

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 49.2

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 43.3

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 43.3

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 38.1

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 38.1

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 33.5

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 33.5

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 29.5

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 29.5

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 26.0

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 26.0

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 22.8

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 22.8

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 20.1

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 20.1

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 17.7

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 17.7

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 15.6

Total 1 62 50 74 62 36 29 43 36 98 78 118 98 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 15.6

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 62 50 74 62 30 24 36 30 92 74 110 92 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 13.7

Total 1 62 50 74 62 30 24 36 30 92 74 110 92 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 13.7

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 57 46 68 57 24 19 29 24 81 65 97 81 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 12.1

Total 1 57 46 68 57 24 19 29 24 81 65 97 81 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 12.1

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

C3 Hazard Scenarios.xlsT301A
Table 3.1A

Chukchi Sea Development Parameter Ranges (2009-2044)

0.80 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.80 1.20 0.33 1.67 0.33 1.67 0.33 1.67

Cum. Cum. Cum.

Well

Drilling Exploration

Development

Production

MMbbl

Water

Depth Year

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Cum. Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Production

Platforms

Range

Factor

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Range

Factor Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

On Platform

Production

Wells

Subsea

Production

Wells

Total 

Production

Wells Sum<10" Sum >=10" Sum All

In-use Pipeline Length [miles]

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Range

Factor

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 42 34 50 42 18 14 22 18 60 48 72 60 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 10.6

Total 1 42 34 50 42 18 14 22 18 60 48 72 60 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 10.6

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 27 22 32 27 12 10 14 12 39 31 47 39 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 9.3

Total 1 27 22 32 27 12 10 14 12 39 31 47 39 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 9.3

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 12 10 14 12 6 5 7 6 18 14 22 18 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 8.2

Total 1 12 10 14 12 6 5 7 6 18 14 22 18 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 8.2

Shallow

Medium 30 10 50 30 30 10 50 30

Deep 1 6 5 7 6 6 5 7 6 30 10 50 30 60 20 100 60 90 30 150 90 7.2

Total 1 6 5 7 6 6 5 7 6 30 10 50 30 90 30 150 90 120 40 200 120 7.2

2044

2041

2042

2043

C3 Hazard Scenarios.xlsT301A
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Chukchi Sea
Table 4.1.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea P/L

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 2.498 7.063 6.475 2.087

Deep 3.345 5.853 2.635 0.659 2.152 6.457 5.085 1.695

Total

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 10 3.345 0.538 0.04 5.853 0.942 0.46 2.635 0.424 2.24 0.659 0.106 1.58 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 10 0.538 0.04 0.942 0.46 0.424 2.24 0.106 1.58 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 15 3.345 0.807 0.06 5.853 1.413 0.68 2.635 0.636 3.36 0.659 0.159 2.37 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 15 0.807 0.06 1.413 0.68 0.636 3.36 0.159 2.37 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 20 3.345 1.076 0.08 5.853 1.884 0.91 2.635 0.848 4.48 0.659 0.212 3.15 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 20 1.076 0.08 1.884 0.91 0.848 4.48 0.212 3.15 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 25 3.345 1.345 0.10 5.853 2.354 1.14 2.635 1.060 5.60 0.659 0.265 3.94 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 25 1.345 0.10 2.354 1.14 1.060 5.60 0.265 3.94 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Water 

Depth

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

P/L Dia <10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2019

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

2010

2011

2012

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2020

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia >= 10"

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4101
Table 4.1.1

Arctic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea P/L

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia >= 10"

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

Shallow 3.773 6.610 4.374 1.144 2.585 7.212 6.869 2.199

Medium 3.688 6.461 4.003 1.041 30 2.498 1.206 0.09 7.063 3.409 1.76 6.475 3.126 16.18 2.087 1.007 15.66

Deep 30 3.345 1.614 0.11 5.853 2.825 1.37 2.635 1.272 6.71 0.659 0.318 4.73 60 2.152 2.078 0.15 6.457 6.233 3.22 5.085 4.909 25.41 1.695 1.636 25.45

Total 30 1.614 0.11 2.825 1.37 1.272 6.71 0.318 4.73 90 3.284 0.23 9.643 4.98 8.035 41.59 2.644 41.11

2041

2042

2043

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2029

2030

2031

2044

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4101
Table 4.1.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence - P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 54.0 3.822 0.071 0.272 10.584 0.196 5.432 14.406 0.267 5.704 8.459 0.157 43.825 2.750 0.051 42.689 11.208 0.208 86.514 25.615 0.474 92.218

2021 70.0 4.091 0.058 0.291 11.055 0.158 5.660 15.146 0.216 5.951 8.671 0.124 44.944 2.803 0.040 43.478 11.473 0.164 88.422 26.620 0.380 94.373

2022 82.0 4.360 0.053 0.310 11.526 0.141 5.888 15.886 0.194 6.199 8.883 0.108 46.063 2.856 0.035 44.267 11.738 0.143 90.330 27.625 0.337 96.528

2023 82.0 4.629 0.056 0.330 11.997 0.146 6.117 16.626 0.203 6.446 9.095 0.111 47.182 2.909 0.035 45.055 12.003 0.146 92.238 28.630 0.349 98.684

2024 82.0 4.898 0.060 0.349 12.468 0.152 6.345 17.366 0.212 6.694 9.307 0.113 48.301 2.962 0.036 45.844 12.268 0.150 94.145 29.635 0.361 100.839

2025 82.0 4.898 0.060 0.349 12.468 0.152 6.345 17.366 0.212 6.694 9.307 0.113 48.301 2.962 0.036 45.844 12.268 0.150 94.145 29.635 0.361 100.839

2026 72.2 4.898 0.068 0.349 12.468 0.173 6.345 17.366 0.241 6.694 9.307 0.129 48.301 2.962 0.041 45.844 12.268 0.170 94.145 29.635 0.410 100.839

2027 63.5 4.898 0.077 0.349 12.468 0.196 6.345 17.366 0.273 6.694 9.307 0.147 48.301 2.962 0.047 45.844 12.268 0.193 94.145 29.635 0.467 100.839

2028 55.9 4.898 0.088 0.349 12.468 0.223 6.345 17.366 0.311 6.694 9.307 0.166 48.301 2.962 0.053 45.844 12.268 0.219 94.145 29.635 0.530 100.839

2029 49.2 4.898 0.100 0.349 12.468 0.253 6.345 17.366 0.353 6.694 9.307 0.189 48.301 2.962 0.060 45.844 12.268 0.249 94.145 29.635 0.602 100.839

2030 43.3 4.898 0.113 0.349 12.468 0.288 6.345 17.366 0.401 6.694 9.307 0.215 48.301 2.962 0.068 45.844 12.268 0.283 94.145 29.635 0.684 100.839

2031 38.1 4.898 0.129 0.349 12.468 0.327 6.345 17.366 0.456 6.694 9.307 0.244 48.301 2.962 0.078 45.844 12.268 0.322 94.145 29.635 0.778 100.839

2032 33.5 4.898 0.146 0.349 12.468 0.372 6.345 17.366 0.518 6.694 9.307 0.278 48.301 2.962 0.088 45.844 12.268 0.366 94.145 29.635 0.885 100.839

2033 29.5 4.898 0.166 0.349 12.468 0.423 6.345 17.366 0.589 6.694 9.307 0.315 48.301 2.962 0.100 45.844 12.268 0.416 94.145 29.635 1.005 100.839

2034 26.0 4.898 0.188 0.349 12.468 0.480 6.345 17.366 0.668 6.694 9.307 0.358 48.301 2.962 0.114 45.844 12.268 0.472 94.145 29.635 1.140 100.839

2035 22.8 4.898 0.215 0.349 12.468 0.547 6.345 17.366 0.762 6.694 9.307 0.408 48.301 2.962 0.130 45.844 12.268 0.538 94.145 29.635 1.300 100.839

2036 20.1 4.898 0.244 0.349 12.468 0.620 6.345 17.366 0.864 6.694 9.307 0.463 48.301 2.962 0.147 45.844 12.268 0.610 94.145 29.635 1.474 100.839

2037 17.7 4.898 0.277 0.349 12.468 0.704 6.345 17.366 0.981 6.694 9.307 0.526 48.301 2.962 0.167 45.844 12.268 0.693 94.145 29.635 1.674 100.839

2038 15.6 4.898 0.314 0.349 12.468 0.799 6.345 17.366 1.113 6.694 9.307 0.597 48.301 2.962 0.190 45.844 12.268 0.786 94.145 29.635 1.900 100.839

2039 13.7 4.898 0.358 0.349 12.468 0.910 6.345 17.366 1.268 6.694 9.307 0.679 48.301 2.962 0.216 45.844 12.268 0.896 94.145 29.635 2.163 100.839

2040 12.1 4.898 0.405 0.349 12.468 1.030 6.345 17.366 1.435 6.694 9.307 0.769 48.301 2.962 0.245 45.844 12.268 1.014 94.145 29.635 2.449 100.839

2041 10.6 4.898 0.462 0.349 12.468 1.176 6.345 17.366 1.638 6.694 9.307 0.878 48.301 2.962 0.279 45.844 12.268 1.157 94.145 29.635 2.796 100.839

2042 9.3 4.898 0.527 0.349 12.468 1.341 6.345 17.366 1.867 6.694 9.307 1.001 48.301 2.962 0.318 45.844 12.268 1.319 94.145 29.635 3.187 100.839

2043 8.2 4.898 0.597 0.349 12.468 1.520 6.345 17.366 2.118 6.694 9.307 1.135 48.301 2.962 0.361 45.844 12.268 1.496 94.145 29.635 3.614 100.839

2044 7.2 4.898 0.680 0.349 12.468 1.732 6.345 17.366 2.412 6.694 9.307 1.293 48.301 2.962 0.411 45.844 12.268 1.704 94.145 29.635 4.116 100.839

Total

 LOF 1000.5 119.8 8.5 307.0 156.3 426.8 164.9 230.6 1196.3 73.5 1138.2 304.1 2334.6 730.8 2499.4

Average LOF 3.327 0.120 0.24 8.528 0.307 4.34 11.854 0.427 4.58 6.404 0.230 33.23 2.042 0.073 31.62 8.446 0.304 64.85 20.301 0.730 69.43

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4102
Table 4.1.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms

452 5631

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1.828 0.309

Total

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 5 1.828 0.914 0.41 0.309 0.155 0.87

Total 1 5 0.914 0.41 0.155 0.87

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 20 1.828 3.656 1.65 0.309 0.619 3.48

Total 1 20 3.656 1.65 0.619 3.48

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 35 1.828 6.398 2.89 0.309 1.083 6.10

Total 1 35 6.398 2.89 1.083 6.10

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 50 1.828 9.139 4.13 0.309 1.547 8.71

Total 1 50 9.139 4.13 1.547 8.71

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 56 1.828 10.236 4.63 0.309 1.733 9.76

Total 1 56 10.236 4.63 1.733 9.76

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

2010

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

2013

2011

2012

2022

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4103
Table 4.1.3

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms

452 5631

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 62 1.828 11.333 5.12 0.309 1.918 10.80

Total 1 62 11.333 5.12 1.918 10.80

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 57 1.828 10.419 4.71 0.309 1.764 9.93

Total 1 57 10.419 4.71 1.764 9.93

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 42 1.828 7.677 3.47 0.309 1.300 7.32

Total 1 42 7.677 3.47 1.300 7.32

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 27 1.828 4.935 2.23 0.309 0.835 4.70

Total 1 27 4.935 2.23 0.835 4.70

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 12 1.828 2.193 0.99 0.309 0.371 2.09

Total 1 12 2.193 0.99 0.371 2.09

Shallow 1.619 0.274

Medium 1.704 0.288

Deep 1 6 1.828 1.097 0.50 0.309 0.186 1.05

Total 1 6 1.097 0.50 0.186 1.05

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2044

2037

2042

2043

2038

2039

2040

2041

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4103
Table 4.1.4

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 54.0 0.914 0.017 0.413 0.155 0.003 0.871 0.155 0.003 0.871 1.069 0.020 1.284

2021 70.0 3.656 0.052 1.652 0.619 0.009 3.485 0.619 0.009 3.485 4.275 0.061 5.137

2022 82.0 6.398 0.078 2.891 1.083 0.013 6.098 1.083 0.013 6.098 7.480 0.091 8.989

2023 82.0 9.139 0.111 4.130 1.547 0.019 8.711 1.547 0.019 8.711 10.686 0.130 12.842

2024 82.0 10.236 0.125 4.626 1.733 0.021 9.757 1.733 0.021 9.757 11.969 0.146 14.383

2025 82.0 11.333 0.138 5.122 1.918 0.023 10.802 1.918 0.023 10.802 13.251 0.162 15.924

2026 72.2 11.333 0.157 5.122 1.918 0.027 10.802 1.918 0.027 10.802 13.251 0.184 15.924

2027 63.5 11.333 0.178 5.122 1.918 0.030 10.802 1.918 0.030 10.802 13.251 0.209 15.924

2028 55.9 11.333 0.203 5.122 1.918 0.034 10.802 1.918 0.034 10.802 13.251 0.237 15.924

2029 49.2 11.333 0.230 5.122 1.918 0.039 10.802 1.918 0.039 10.802 13.251 0.269 15.924

2030 43.3 11.333 0.262 5.122 1.918 0.044 10.802 1.918 0.044 10.802 13.251 0.306 15.924

2031 38.1 11.333 0.297 5.122 1.918 0.050 10.802 1.918 0.050 10.802 13.251 0.348 15.924

2032 33.5 11.333 0.338 5.122 1.918 0.057 10.802 1.918 0.057 10.802 13.251 0.396 15.924

2033 29.5 11.333 0.384 5.122 1.918 0.065 10.802 1.918 0.065 10.802 13.251 0.449 15.924

2034 26.0 11.333 0.436 5.122 1.918 0.074 10.802 1.918 0.074 10.802 13.251 0.510 15.924

2035 22.8 11.333 0.497 5.122 1.918 0.084 10.802 1.918 0.084 10.802 13.251 0.581 15.924

2036 20.1 11.333 0.564 5.122 1.918 0.095 10.802 1.918 0.095 10.802 13.251 0.659 15.924

2037 17.7 11.333 0.640 5.122 1.918 0.108 10.802 1.918 0.108 10.802 13.251 0.749 15.924

2038 15.6 11.333 0.726 5.122 1.918 0.123 10.802 1.918 0.123 10.802 13.251 0.849 15.924

2039 13.7 11.333 0.827 5.122 1.918 0.140 10.802 13.251 0.967 15.924 13.251 0.967 15.924

2040 12.1 10.419 0.861 4.708 1.764 0.146 9.931 12.182 1.007 14.639 12.182 1.007 14.639

2041 10.6 7.677 0.724 3.469 1.300 0.123 7.318 8.977 0.847 10.787 8.977 0.847 10.787

2042 9.3 4.935 0.531 2.230 0.835 0.090 4.704 5.771 0.620 6.934 5.771 0.620 6.934

2043 8.2 2.193 0.267 0.991 0.371 0.045 2.091 2.565 0.313 3.082 2.565 0.313 3.082

2044 7.2 1.097 0.152 0.496 0.186 0.026 1.045 1.282 0.178 1.541 1.282 0.178 1.541

Total

 LOF 1000.5 226.7 102.4 38.4 216.0 76.0 233.1 265.0 318.5

Average LOF 6.296 0.227 2.85 1.066 0.038 6.00 2.112 0.076 6.47 7.362 0.265 8.85

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4104
Table 4.1.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Total

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 6 0.103 0.062 0.03 0.718 0.431 2.28 0.308 0.185 12.62 0.205 0.123 24.63

Total 6 0.062 0.03 0.431 2.28 0.185 12.62 0.123 24.63

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 17 0.103 0.174 0.09 0.718 1.221 6.46 0.308 0.523 35.77 0.205 0.349 69.78

Total 17 0.174 0.09 1.221 6.46 0.523 35.77 0.349 69.78

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 38 0.103 0.390 0.20 0.718 2.730 14.44 0.308 1.170 79.95 0.205 0.780 155.97

Total 38 0.390 0.20 2.730 14.44 1.170 79.95 0.780 155.97

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 59 0.103 0.605 0.31 0.718 4.238 22.43 0.308 1.816 124.14 0.205 1.211 242.17

Total 59 0.605 0.31 4.238 22.43 1.816 124.14 1.211 242.17

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 80 0.103 0.821 0.43 0.718 5.746 30.41 0.308 2.463 168.32 0.205 1.642 328.36

Total 80 0.821 0.43 5.746 30.41 2.463 168.32 1.642 328.36

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 92 0.103 0.944 0.49 0.718 6.608 34.97 0.308 2.832 193.57 0.205 1.888 377.62

Total 92 0.944 0.49 6.608 34.97 2.832 193.57 1.888 377.62

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2010

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

=>150000 bbl

2011

2012

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Water Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Depth

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Year

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4105
Table 4.1.5

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

=>150000 bbl

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Water Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Depth

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Year

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 98 0.103 1.006 0.52 0.718 7.039 37.25 0.308 3.017 206.20 0.205 2.011 402.25

Total 98 1.006 0.52 7.039 37.25 3.017 206.20 2.011 402.25

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 92 0.103 0.944 0.49 0.718 6.608 34.97 0.308 2.832 193.57 0.205 1.888 377.62

Total 92 0.944 0.49 6.608 34.97 2.832 193.57 1.888 377.62

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 81 0.103 0.831 0.43 0.718 5.818 30.79 0.308 2.494 170.43 0.205 1.662 332.47

Total 81 0.831 0.43 5.818 30.79 2.494 170.43 1.662 332.47

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 60 0.103 0.616 0.32 0.718 4.310 22.81 0.308 1.847 126.24 0.205 1.231 246.27

Total 60 0.616 0.32 4.310 22.81 1.847 126.24 1.231 246.27

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 39 0.103 0.400 0.21 0.718 2.801 14.83 0.308 1.201 82.06 0.205 0.800 160.08

Total 39 0.400 0.21 2.801 14.83 1.201 82.06 0.800 160.08

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 18 0.103 0.185 0.10 0.718 1.293 6.84 0.308 0.554 37.87 0.205 0.369 73.88

Total 18 0.185 0.10 1.293 6.84 0.554 37.87 0.369 73.88

Shallow 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Medium 0.103 0.718 0.308 0.205

Deep 6 0.103 0.062 0.03 0.718 0.431 2.28 0.308 0.185 12.62 0.205 0.123 24.63

Total 6 0.062 0.03 0.431 2.28 0.185 12.62 0.123 24.63

2038

2027

2028

2036

2037

2039

2029

2030

2031

2044

2041

2042

2043

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4105
Table 4.1.6

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.062 0.032 0.185 2.281 0.308 37.252 0.554 39.564

2020 54.0 0.174 0.003 0.091 0.523 0.010 6.462 0.872 0.016 105.546 1.570 0.029 112.099

2021 70.0 0.390 0.006 0.203 1.170 0.017 14.445 1.950 0.028 235.926 3.509 0.050 250.574

2022 82.0 0.605 0.007 0.314 1.816 0.022 22.428 3.027 0.037 366.307 5.449 0.066 389.049

2023 82.0 0.821 0.010 0.426 2.463 0.030 30.410 4.105 0.050 496.687 7.388 0.090 527.524

2024 82.0 0.944 0.012 0.490 2.832 0.035 34.972 4.720 0.058 571.190 8.496 0.104 606.652

2025 82.0 1.006 0.012 0.522 3.017 0.037 37.253 5.028 0.061 608.441 9.051 0.110 646.216

2026 72.2 1.006 0.014 0.522 3.017 0.042 37.253 5.028 0.070 608.441 9.051 0.125 646.216

2027 63.5 1.006 0.016 0.522 3.017 0.048 37.253 5.028 0.079 608.441 9.051 0.143 646.216

2028 55.9 1.006 0.018 0.522 3.017 0.054 37.253 5.028 0.090 608.441 9.051 0.162 646.216

2029 49.2 1.006 0.020 0.522 3.017 0.061 37.253 5.028 0.102 608.441 9.051 0.184 646.216

2030 43.3 1.006 0.023 0.522 3.017 0.070 37.253 5.028 0.116 608.441 9.051 0.209 646.216

2031 38.1 1.006 0.026 0.522 3.017 0.079 37.253 5.028 0.132 608.441 9.051 0.238 646.216

2032 33.5 1.006 0.030 0.522 3.017 0.090 37.253 5.028 0.150 608.441 9.051 0.270 646.216

2033 29.5 1.006 0.034 0.522 3.017 0.102 37.253 5.028 0.170 608.441 9.051 0.307 646.216

2034 26.0 1.006 0.039 0.522 3.017 0.116 37.253 5.028 0.193 608.441 9.051 0.348 646.216

2035 22.8 1.006 0.044 0.522 3.017 0.132 37.253 5.028 0.221 608.441 9.051 0.397 646.216

2036 20.1 1.006 0.050 0.522 3.017 0.150 37.253 5.028 0.250 608.441 9.051 0.450 646.216

2037 17.7 1.006 0.057 0.522 3.017 0.170 37.253 5.028 0.284 608.441 9.051 0.511 646.216

2038 15.6 1.006 0.064 0.522 3.017 0.193 37.253 5.028 0.322 608.441 9.051 0.580 646.216

2039 13.7 0.944 0.069 0.490 2.832 0.207 34.972 4.720 0.345 571.190 8.496 0.620 606.652

2040 12.1 0.831 0.069 0.432 2.494 0.206 30.790 4.156 0.343 502.895 7.481 0.618 534.118

2041 10.6 0.616 0.058 0.320 1.847 0.174 22.808 3.078 0.290 372.515 5.541 0.523 395.643

2042 9.3 0.400 0.043 0.208 1.201 0.129 14.825 2.001 0.215 242.135 3.602 0.387 257.168

2043 8.2 0.185 0.023 0.096 0.554 0.068 6.842 0.924 0.113 111.755 1.662 0.203 118.693

2044 7.2 0.062 0.009 0.032 0.185 0.026 2.281 0.123 0.017 24.627 0.369 0.051 26.940

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4106
Table 4.1.7

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 1 2.035 0.204 0.11 14.242 1.424 7.54 6.119 0.612 41.82 3.543 0.354 70.85

Total 1 0.204 0.11 1.424 7.54 0.612 41.82 0.354 70.85

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2013

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2011

2012

Year

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4107
Table 4.1.7

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Year

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

Shallow 1.583 11.077 4.759 2.755

Medium 1.809 12.659 5.439 3.149

Deep 2.035 14.242 6.119 3.543

Total

2041

2042

2043

2028

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2030

2031

2044

2029

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4107
Table 4.1.8

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2005 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2010 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 54.0

2016 70.0

2017 82.0

2018 82.0

2019 82.0

2020 82.0

2021 72.2

2022 63.5

2023 55.9

2024 49.2

2025 43.3

2026 38.1

2027 33.5

2028 29.5

2029 26.0

2030 22.8

2031 20.1

2032 17.7

2033 15.6

2034 13.7

2035 12.1

2036 10.6

2037 9.3

2038 8.2

2039 7.2

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4108
Table 4.1.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 2 0.623 0.012 0.01 4.350 0.087 0.46 1.868 0.037 2.55 1.868 0.037 7.47

Total 2 0.012 0.01 0.087 0.46 0.037 2.55 0.037 7.47

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 2 0.623 0.012 0.01 4.350 0.087 0.46 1.868 0.037 2.55 1.868 0.037 7.47

Total 2 0.012 0.01 0.087 0.46 0.037 2.55 0.037 7.47

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 2 0.623 0.012 0.01 4.350 0.087 0.46 1.868 0.037 2.55 1.868 0.037 7.47

Total 2 0.012 0.01 0.087 0.46 0.037 2.55 0.037 7.47

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 6 0.623 0.037 0.02 4.350 0.261 1.38 1.868 0.112 7.66 1.868 0.112 22.42

Total 6 0.037 0.02 0.261 1.38 0.112 7.66 0.112 22.42

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 11 0.623 0.069 0.04 4.350 0.479 2.53 1.868 0.206 14.05 1.868 0.206 41.11

Total 11 0.069 0.04 0.479 2.53 0.206 14.05 0.206 41.11

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 21 0.623 0.131 0.07 4.350 0.914 4.83 1.868 0.392 26.82 1.868 0.392 78.47

Total 21 0.131 0.07 0.914 4.83 0.392 26.82 0.392 78.47

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 21 0.623 0.131 0.07 4.350 0.914 4.83 1.868 0.392 26.82 1.868 0.392 78.47

Total 21 0.131 0.07 0.914 4.83 0.392 26.82 0.392 78.47

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 21 0.623 0.131 0.07 4.350 0.914 4.83 1.868 0.392 26.82 1.868 0.392 78.47

Total 21 0.131 0.07 0.914 4.83 0.392 26.82 0.392 78.47

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 12 0.623 0.075 0.04 4.350 0.522 2.76 1.868 0.224 15.32 1.868 0.224 44.84

Total 12 0.075 0.04 0.522 2.76 0.224 15.32 0.224 44.84

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 6 0.623 0.037 0.02 4.350 0.261 1.38 1.868 0.112 7.66 1.868 0.112 22.42

Total 6 0.037 0.02 0.261 1.38 0.112 7.66 0.112 22.42

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

2012

Year

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2010

2011

N Wells

2009

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2026

2027

2028

2022

2023

2024

2025

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4109
Table 4.1.9

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

Shallow 0.484 3.383 1.453 1.453

Medium 0.554 3.867 1.661 1.661

Deep 0.623 4.350 1.868 1.868

Total

2038

2039

2029

2030

2031

2028

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2044

2041

2042

2043

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4109
Table 4.1.10

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

2012 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

2013 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.037 0.019 0.112 1.381 0.224 30.084 0.374 31.484

2020 54.0 0.069 0.001 0.036 0.206 0.004 2.532 0.411 0.008 55.153 0.685 0.013 57.721

2021 70.0 0.131 0.002 0.068 0.392 0.006 4.834 0.785 0.011 105.292 1.308 0.019 110.195

2022 82.0 0.131 0.002 0.068 0.392 0.005 4.834 0.785 0.010 105.292 1.308 0.016 110.195

2023 82.0 0.131 0.002 0.068 0.392 0.005 4.834 0.785 0.010 105.292 1.308 0.016 110.195

2024 82.0 0.075 0.001 0.039 0.224 0.003 2.763 0.448 0.005 60.167 0.747 0.009 62.968

2025 82.0 0.037 0.000 0.019 0.112 0.001 1.381 0.224 0.003 30.084 0.374 0.005 31.484

2026 72.2

2027 63.5

2028 55.9

2029 49.2

2030 43.3

2031 38.1

2032 33.5

2033 29.5

2034 26.0

2035 22.8

2036 20.1

2037 17.7

2038 15.6

2039 13.7

2040 12.1

2041 10.6

2042 9.3

2043 8.2

2044 7.2

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4110
Table 4.1.11

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills 

per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2010 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2011 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.112 10.488 0.125 10.495

2012 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.112 10.488 0.125 10.495

2013 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.112 10.488 0.125 10.495

2014 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2015 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.099 0.051 0.297 3.662 0.532 67.335 0.829 70.997 0.928 71.048

2020 54.0 0.243 0.004 0.126 0.729 0.013 8.995 1.283 0.024 160.699 2.012 0.037 169.694 2.255 0.042 169.820

2021 70.0 0.521 0.007 0.270 1.562 0.022 19.279 2.734 0.039 341.219 4.297 0.061 360.498 4.817 0.069 360.768

2022 82.0 0.736 0.009 0.382 2.209 0.027 27.262 3.812 0.046 471.599 6.020 0.073 498.861 6.757 0.082 499.243

2023 82.0 0.952 0.012 0.494 2.855 0.035 35.245 4.889 0.060 601.979 7.744 0.094 637.224 8.696 0.106 637.718

2024 82.0 1.019 0.012 0.529 3.056 0.037 37.734 5.169 0.063 631.357 8.225 0.100 669.091 9.244 0.113 669.621

2025 82.0 1.043 0.013 0.542 3.129 0.038 38.634 5.252 0.064 638.525 8.381 0.102 677.159 9.424 0.115 677.701

2026 72.2 1.006 0.014 0.522 3.017 0.042 37.253 5.028 0.070 608.441 8.045 0.111 645.694 9.051 0.125 646.216

2027 63.5 1.006 0.016 0.522 3.017 0.048 37.253 5.028 0.079 608.441 8.045 0.127 645.694 9.051 0.143 646.216

2028 55.9 1.006 0.018 0.522 3.017 0.054 37.253 5.028 0.090 608.441 8.045 0.144 645.694 9.051 0.162 646.216

2029 49.2 1.006 0.020 0.522 3.017 0.061 37.253 5.028 0.102 608.441 8.045 0.164 645.694 9.051 0.184 646.216

2030 43.3 1.006 0.023 0.522 3.017 0.070 37.253 5.028 0.116 608.441 8.045 0.186 645.694 9.051 0.209 646.216

2031 38.1 1.006 0.026 0.522 3.017 0.079 37.253 5.028 0.132 608.441 8.045 0.211 645.694 9.051 0.238 646.216

2032 33.5 1.006 0.030 0.522 3.017 0.090 37.253 5.028 0.150 608.441 8.045 0.240 645.694 9.051 0.270 646.216

2033 29.5 1.006 0.034 0.522 3.017 0.102 37.253 5.028 0.170 608.441 8.045 0.273 645.694 9.051 0.307 646.216

2034 26.0 1.006 0.039 0.522 3.017 0.116 37.253 5.028 0.193 608.441 8.045 0.309 645.694 9.051 0.348 646.216

2035 22.8 1.006 0.044 0.522 3.017 0.132 37.253 5.028 0.221 608.441 8.045 0.353 645.694 9.051 0.397 646.216

2036 20.1 1.006 0.050 0.522 3.017 0.150 37.253 5.028 0.250 608.441 8.045 0.400 645.694 9.051 0.450 646.216

2037 17.7 1.006 0.057 0.522 3.017 0.170 37.253 5.028 0.284 608.441 8.045 0.455 645.694 9.051 0.511 646.216

2038 15.6 1.006 0.064 0.522 3.017 0.193 37.253 5.028 0.322 608.441 8.045 0.516 645.694 9.051 0.580 646.216

2039 13.7 0.944 0.069 0.490 2.832 0.207 34.972 4.720 0.345 571.190 7.552 0.551 606.162 8.496 0.620 606.652

2040 12.1 0.831 0.069 0.432 2.494 0.206 30.790 4.156 0.343 502.895 6.649 0.550 533.686 7.481 0.618 534.118

2041 10.6 0.616 0.058 0.320 1.847 0.174 22.808 3.078 0.290 372.515 4.925 0.465 395.323 5.541 0.523 395.643

2042 9.3 0.400 0.043 0.208 1.201 0.129 14.825 2.001 0.215 242.135 3.202 0.344 256.960 3.602 0.387 257.168

2043 8.2 0.185 0.023 0.096 0.554 0.068 6.842 0.924 0.113 111.755 1.478 0.180 118.597 1.662 0.203 118.693

2044 7.2 0.062 0.009 0.032 0.185 0.026 2.281 0.123 0.017 24.627 0.308 0.043 26.908 0.369 0.051 26.940

Total

 LOF 1000.5 21.6 11.2 64.7 799.1 108.1 13128.4 172.9 13927.5 194.4 13938.7

Average LOF 0.599 0.022 0.31 1.798 0.065 22.20 3.004 0.108 364.68 4.802 0.173 386.88 5.401 0.194 387.19

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4111
Table 4.1.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells

Total 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells

Total 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

Total 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

Total 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

Total 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.125 10.495

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells

Total 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Development Wells

Total 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.782 120.321

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells 0.062 0.032 0.185 2.281 0.308 37.252 0.554 39.564

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.037 0.019 0.112 1.381 0.224 30.084 0.374 31.484

Total 0.099 0.051 0.297 3.662 0.532 67.335 0.928 71.048

Pipeline 14.406 0.267 5.704 8.459 0.157 43.825 2.750 0.051 42.689 25.615 0.474 92.218

Platforms 0.914 0.017 0.413 0.077 0.001 0.436 0.077 0.001 0.436 1.069 0.020 1.284

Production Wells 0.174 0.003 0.091 0.523 0.010 6.462 0.872 0.016 105.546 1.570 0.029 112.099

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.069 0.001 0.036 0.206 0.004 2.532 0.411 0.008 55.153 0.685 0.013 57.721

Total 15.563 0.288 6.243 9.265 0.172 53.255 4.110 0.076 203.824 28.939 0.536 263.322

Pipeline 15.146 0.216 5.951 8.671 0.124 44.944 2.803 0.040 43.478 26.620 0.380 94.373

Platforms 3.656 0.052 1.652 0.309 0.004 1.742 0.309 0.004 1.742 4.275 0.061 5.137

Production Wells 0.390 0.006 0.203 1.170 0.017 14.445 1.950 0.028 235.926 3.509 0.050 250.574

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.131 0.002 0.068 0.392 0.006 4.834 0.785 0.011 105.292 1.308 0.019 110.195

Total 19.323 0.276 7.874 10.542 0.151 65.965 5.846 0.084 386.439 35.712 0.510 460.278

Pipeline 15.886 0.194 6.199 8.883 0.108 46.063 2.856 0.035 44.267 27.625 0.337 96.528

Platforms 6.398 0.078 2.891 0.541 0.007 3.049 0.541 0.007 3.049 7.480 0.091 8.989

Production Wells 0.605 0.007 0.314 1.816 0.022 22.428 3.027 0.037 366.307 5.449 0.066 389.049

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.131 0.002 0.068 0.392 0.005 4.834 0.785 0.010 105.292 1.308 0.016 110.195

Total 23.020 0.281 9.472 11.633 0.142 76.374 7.209 0.088 518.915 41.862 0.511 604.761

Pipeline 16.626 0.203 6.446 9.095 0.111 47.182 2.909 0.035 45.055 28.630 0.349 98.684

Platforms 9.139 0.111 4.130 0.774 0.009 4.356 0.774 0.009 4.356 10.686 0.130 12.842

Production Wells 0.821 0.010 0.426 2.463 0.030 30.410 4.105 0.050 496.687 7.388 0.090 527.524

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.131 0.002 0.068 0.392 0.005 4.834 0.785 0.010 105.292 1.308 0.016 110.195

Total 26.717 0.326 11.071 12.724 0.155 86.782 8.571 0.105 651.390 48.012 0.586 749.244

Pipeline 17.366 0.212 6.694 9.307 0.113 48.301 2.962 0.036 45.844 29.635 0.361 100.839

Platforms 10.236 0.125 4.626 0.866 0.011 4.878 0.866 0.011 4.878 11.969 0.146 14.383

Production Wells 0.944 0.012 0.490 2.832 0.035 34.972 4.720 0.058 571.190 8.496 0.104 606.652

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.075 0.001 0.039 0.224 0.003 2.763 0.448 0.005 60.167 0.747 0.009 62.968

Total 28.621 0.349 11.849 13.230 0.161 90.914 8.997 0.110 682.079 50.847 0.620 784.842

Pipeline 17.366 0.212 6.694 9.307 0.113 48.301 2.962 0.036 45.844 29.635 0.361 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.138 5.122 0.959 0.012 5.401 0.959 0.012 5.401 13.251 0.162 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.012 0.522 3.017 0.037 37.253 5.028 0.061 608.441 9.051 0.110 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.037 0.000 0.019 0.112 0.001 1.381 0.224 0.003 30.084 0.374 0.005 31.484

Total 29.742 0.363 12.357 13.395 0.163 92.336 9.173 0.112 689.770 52.310 0.638 794.463

Pipeline 17.366 0.241 6.694 9.307 0.129 48.301 2.962 0.041 45.844 29.635 0.410 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.157 5.122 0.959 0.013 5.401 0.959 0.013 5.401 13.251 0.184 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.014 0.522 3.017 0.042 37.253 5.028 0.070 608.441 9.051 0.125 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.411 12.338 13.283 0.184 90.955 8.949 0.124 659.687 51.936 0.719 762.979

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2015

2017

2018

2021 70.0

2019

2020 54.0

2022 82.0

2023 82.0

2024 82.0

2025 82.0

2026 72.2

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4112
Table 4.1.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 17.366 0.273 6.694 9.307 0.147 48.301 2.962 0.047 45.844 29.635 0.467 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.178 5.122 0.959 0.015 5.401 0.959 0.015 5.401 13.251 0.209 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.016 0.522 3.017 0.048 37.253 5.028 0.079 608.441 9.051 0.143 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.468 12.338 13.283 0.209 90.955 8.949 0.141 659.687 51.936 0.818 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.311 6.694 9.307 0.166 48.301 2.962 0.053 45.844 29.635 0.530 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.203 5.122 0.959 0.017 5.401 0.959 0.017 5.401 13.251 0.237 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.018 0.522 3.017 0.054 37.253 5.028 0.090 608.441 9.051 0.162 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.531 12.338 13.283 0.238 90.955 8.949 0.160 659.687 51.936 0.929 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.353 6.694 9.307 0.189 48.301 2.962 0.060 45.844 29.635 0.602 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.230 5.122 0.959 0.019 5.401 0.959 0.019 5.401 13.251 0.269 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.020 0.522 3.017 0.061 37.253 5.028 0.102 608.441 9.051 0.184 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.604 12.338 13.283 0.270 90.955 8.949 0.182 659.687 51.936 1.056 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.401 6.694 9.307 0.215 48.301 2.962 0.068 45.844 29.635 0.684 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.262 5.122 0.959 0.022 5.401 0.959 0.022 5.401 13.251 0.306 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.023 0.522 3.017 0.070 37.253 5.028 0.116 608.441 9.051 0.209 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.686 12.338 13.283 0.307 90.955 8.949 0.207 659.687 51.936 1.199 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.456 6.694 9.307 0.244 48.301 2.962 0.078 45.844 29.635 0.778 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.297 5.122 0.959 0.025 5.401 0.959 0.025 5.401 13.251 0.348 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.026 0.522 3.017 0.079 37.253 5.028 0.132 608.441 9.051 0.238 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.780 12.338 13.283 0.349 90.955 8.949 0.235 659.687 51.936 1.363 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.518 6.694 9.307 0.278 48.301 2.962 0.088 45.844 29.635 0.885 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.338 5.122 0.959 0.029 5.401 0.959 0.029 5.401 13.251 0.396 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.030 0.522 3.017 0.090 37.253 5.028 0.150 608.441 9.051 0.270 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 0.887 12.338 13.283 0.397 90.955 8.949 0.267 659.687 51.936 1.550 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.589 6.694 9.307 0.315 48.301 2.962 0.100 45.844 29.635 1.005 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.384 5.122 0.959 0.033 5.401 0.959 0.033 5.401 13.251 0.449 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.034 0.522 3.017 0.102 37.253 5.028 0.170 608.441 9.051 0.307 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 1.007 12.338 13.283 0.450 90.955 8.949 0.303 659.687 51.936 1.761 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.668 6.694 9.307 0.358 48.301 2.962 0.114 45.844 29.635 1.140 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.436 5.122 0.959 0.037 5.401 0.959 0.037 5.401 13.251 0.510 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.039 0.522 3.017 0.116 37.253 5.028 0.193 608.441 9.051 0.348 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 1.142 12.338 13.283 0.511 90.955 8.949 0.344 659.687 51.936 1.998 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.762 6.694 9.307 0.408 48.301 2.962 0.130 45.844 29.635 1.300 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.497 5.122 0.959 0.042 5.401 0.959 0.042 5.401 13.251 0.581 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.044 0.522 3.017 0.132 37.253 5.028 0.221 608.441 9.051 0.397 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 1.303 12.338 13.283 0.583 90.955 8.949 0.392 659.687 51.936 2.278 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.864 6.694 9.307 0.463 48.301 2.962 0.147 45.844 29.635 1.474 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.564 5.122 0.959 0.048 5.401 0.959 0.048 5.401 13.251 0.659 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.050 0.522 3.017 0.150 37.253 5.028 0.250 608.441 9.051 0.450 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 1.478 12.338 13.283 0.661 90.955 8.949 0.445 659.687 51.936 2.584 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 0.981 6.694 9.307 0.526 48.301 2.962 0.167 45.844 29.635 1.674 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.640 5.122 0.959 0.054 5.401 0.959 0.054 5.401 13.251 0.749 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.057 0.522 3.017 0.170 37.253 5.028 0.284 608.441 9.051 0.511 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 1.678 12.338 13.283 0.750 90.955 8.949 0.506 659.687 51.936 2.934 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 1.113 6.694 9.307 0.597 48.301 2.962 0.190 45.844 29.635 1.900 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.726 5.122 0.959 0.061 5.401 0.959 0.061 5.401 13.251 0.849 15.924

Production Wells 1.006 0.064 0.522 3.017 0.193 37.253 5.028 0.322 608.441 9.051 0.580 646.216

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.705 1.904 12.338 13.283 0.851 90.955 8.949 0.574 659.687 51.936 3.329 762.979

Pipeline 17.366 1.268 6.694 9.307 0.679 48.301 2.962 0.216 45.844 29.635 2.163 100.839

Platforms 11.333 0.827 5.122 0.959 0.070 5.401 0.959 0.070 5.401 13.251 0.967 15.924

Production Wells 0.944 0.069 0.490 2.832 0.207 34.972 4.720 0.345 571.190 8.496 0.620 606.652

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 29.643 2.164 12.306 13.098 0.956 88.674 8.641 0.631 622.435 51.382 3.751 723.415

Pipeline 17.366 1.435 6.694 9.307 0.769 48.301 2.962 0.245 45.844 29.635 2.449 100.839

Platforms 10.419 0.861 4.708 0.882 0.073 4.965 0.882 0.073 4.965 12.182 1.007 14.639

Production Wells 0.831 0.069 0.432 2.494 0.206 30.790 4.156 0.343 502.895 7.481 0.618 534.118

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.616 2.365 11.834 12.682 1.048 84.057 7.999 0.661 553.705 49.298 4.074 649.596

Pipeline 17.366 1.638 6.694 9.307 0.878 48.301 2.962 0.279 45.844 29.635 2.796 100.839

Platforms 7.677 0.724 3.469 0.650 0.061 3.659 0.650 0.061 3.659 8.977 0.847 10.787

Production Wells 0.616 0.058 0.320 1.847 0.174 22.808 3.078 0.290 372.515 5.541 0.523 395.643

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 25.659 2.421 10.483 11.804 1.114 74.768 6.690 0.631 422.018 44.152 4.165 507.269

Pipeline 17.366 1.867 6.694 9.307 1.001 48.301 2.962 0.318 45.844 29.635 3.187 100.839

Platforms 4.935 0.531 2.230 0.418 0.045 2.352 0.418 0.045 2.352 5.771 0.620 6.934

Production Wells 0.400 0.043 0.208 1.201 0.129 14.825 2.001 0.215 242.135 3.602 0.387 257.168

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 22.702 2.441 9.132 10.925 1.175 65.478 5.380 0.579 290.331 39.007 4.194 364.941

Pipeline 17.366 2.118 6.694 9.307 1.135 48.301 2.962 0.361 45.844 29.635 3.614 100.839

Platforms 2.193 0.267 0.991 0.186 0.023 1.045 0.186 0.023 1.045 2.565 0.313 3.082

Production Wells 0.185 0.023 0.096 0.554 0.068 6.842 0.924 0.113 111.755 1.662 0.203 118.693

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 19.744 2.408 7.781 10.047 1.225 56.189 4.071 0.496 158.644 33.862 4.129 222.614

Pipeline 17.366 2.412 6.694 9.307 1.293 48.301 2.962 0.411 45.844 29.635 4.116 100.839

Platforms 1.097 0.152 0.496 0.093 0.013 0.523 0.093 0.013 0.523 1.282 0.178 1.541

Production Wells 0.062 0.009 0.032 0.185 0.026 2.281 0.123 0.017 24.627 0.369 0.051 26.940

2027 63.5

2028 55.9

2029 49.2

2030 43.3

2031 38.1

2032 33.5

2033 29.5

2034 26.0

2035 22.8

2036 20.1

2037 17.7

2038 15.6

2039 13.7

2040 12.1

2041 10.6

2044 7.2

2042 9.3

2043 8.2

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4112
Table 4.1.12

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 18.525 2.573 7.221 9.584 1.331 51.105 3.178 0.441 70.994 31.286 4.345 129.320

2044 7.2

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4112
Table 4.1.13

Arctic Spill Occurrence - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills 

per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2010 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2011 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.112 10.488 0.125 10.495

2012 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.112 10.488 0.125 10.495

2013 0.012 0.006 0.037 0.460 0.075 10.028 0.112 10.488 0.125 10.495

2014 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2015 0.204 0.106 0.612 7.537 0.966 112.679 1.578 120.216 1.782 120.321

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.099 0.051 0.297 3.662 0.532 67.335 0.829 70.997 0.928 71.048

2020 54.0 15.563 0.288 6.243 9.265 0.172 53.255 4.110 0.076 203.824 13.375 0.248 257.079 28.939 0.536 263.322

2021 70.0 19.323 0.276 7.874 10.542 0.151 65.965 5.846 0.084 386.439 16.389 0.234 452.404 35.712 0.510 460.278

2022 82.0 23.020 0.281 9.472 11.633 0.142 76.374 7.209 0.088 518.915 18.842 0.230 595.289 41.862 0.511 604.761

2023 82.0 26.717 0.326 11.071 12.724 0.155 86.782 8.571 0.105 651.390 21.295 0.260 738.173 48.012 0.586 749.244

2024 82.0 28.621 0.349 11.849 13.230 0.161 90.914 8.997 0.110 682.079 22.226 0.271 772.993 50.847 0.620 784.842

2025 82.0 29.742 0.363 12.357 13.395 0.163 92.336 9.173 0.112 689.770 22.568 0.275 782.106 52.310 0.638 794.463

2026 72.2 29.705 0.411 12.338 13.283 0.184 90.955 8.949 0.124 659.687 22.232 0.308 750.641 51.936 0.719 762.979

2027 63.5 29.705 0.468 12.338 13.283 0.209 90.955 8.949 0.141 659.687 22.232 0.350 750.641 51.936 0.818 762.979

2028 55.9 29.705 0.531 12.338 13.283 0.238 90.955 8.949 0.160 659.687 22.232 0.398 750.641 51.936 0.929 762.979

2029 49.2 29.705 0.604 12.338 13.283 0.270 90.955 8.949 0.182 659.687 22.232 0.452 750.641 51.936 1.056 762.979

2030 43.3 29.705 0.686 12.338 13.283 0.307 90.955 8.949 0.207 659.687 22.232 0.513 750.641 51.936 1.199 762.979

2031 38.1 29.705 0.780 12.338 13.283 0.349 90.955 8.949 0.235 659.687 22.232 0.584 750.641 51.936 1.363 762.979

2032 33.5 29.705 0.887 12.338 13.283 0.397 90.955 8.949 0.267 659.687 22.232 0.664 750.641 51.936 1.550 762.979

2033 29.5 29.705 1.007 12.338 13.283 0.450 90.955 8.949 0.303 659.687 22.232 0.754 750.641 51.936 1.761 762.979

2034 26.0 29.705 1.142 12.338 13.283 0.511 90.955 8.949 0.344 659.687 22.232 0.855 750.641 51.936 1.998 762.979

2035 22.8 29.705 1.303 12.338 13.283 0.583 90.955 8.949 0.392 659.687 22.232 0.975 750.641 51.936 2.278 762.979

2036 20.1 29.705 1.478 12.338 13.283 0.661 90.955 8.949 0.445 659.687 22.232 1.106 750.641 51.936 2.584 762.979

2037 17.7 29.705 1.678 12.338 13.283 0.750 90.955 8.949 0.506 659.687 22.232 1.256 750.641 51.936 2.934 762.979

2038 15.6 29.705 1.904 12.338 13.283 0.851 90.955 8.949 0.574 659.687 22.232 1.425 750.641 51.936 3.329 762.979

2039 13.7 29.643 2.164 12.306 13.098 0.956 88.674 8.641 0.631 622.435 21.739 1.587 711.109 51.382 3.751 723.415

2040 12.1 28.616 2.365 11.834 12.682 1.048 84.057 7.999 0.661 553.705 20.681 1.709 637.762 49.298 4.074 649.596

2041 10.6 25.659 2.421 10.483 11.804 1.114 74.768 6.690 0.631 422.018 18.493 1.745 496.786 44.152 4.165 507.269

2042 9.3 22.702 2.441 9.132 10.925 1.175 65.478 5.380 0.579 290.331 16.305 1.753 355.809 39.007 4.194 364.941

2043 8.2 19.744 2.408 7.781 10.047 1.225 56.189 4.071 0.496 158.644 14.117 1.722 214.833 33.862 4.129 222.614

2044 7.2 18.525 2.573 7.221 9.584 1.331 51.105 3.178 0.441 70.994 12.762 1.772 122.099 31.286 4.345 129.320

Total

 LOF 1000.5 675.0 278.5 314.5 2103.5 200.8 14374.6 515.3 16478.1 1190.3 16756.6

Average LOF 18.750 0.675 7.74 8.735 0.314 58.43 5.578 0.201 399.29 14.313 0.515 457.73 33.063 1.190 465.46

18.750 8.735 5.578 14.313 33.063

0.675 0.314 0.201 0.515 1.190

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4113
Table 4.1.14

Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 28.62 13.25 9.00 22.24 50.86 0.35 0.16 0.11 0.27 0.62 11.85 90.75 681.33 772.08 783.93

Std Deviation = 9.58 5.70 2.40 6.73 12.77 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.08 0.16 6.57 45.99 244.70 251.14 251.46

Variance = 91.791 32.506 5.743 45.293 163.102 0.014 0.005 0.001 0.007 0.024 43.199 2115.125 59877.300 63068.880 63234.000

Skewness = 0.57 1.10 0.55 0.83 0.54 0.57 1.10 0.55 0.83 0.54 1.21 1.23 0.60 0.59 0.59

Kurtosis = 3.24 4.37 3.33 3.82 3.29 3.24 4.37 3.33 3.82 3.29 4.92 5.54 3.45 3.44 3.44

Mode = 25.37 11.35 7.34 34.77 46.61 0.31 0.14 0.09 0.42 0.57 13.68 72.01 592.71 385.11 808.80

Minimum = 6.959 2.233 2.698 7.478 19.166 0.085 0.027 0.033 0.091 0.234 0 0.070 7.189 122.468 190.640 201.190

5% Perc = 14.801 6.186 5.498 13.138 31.932 0.180 0.075 0.067 0.160 0.389 5 3.883 31.924 322.006 406.207 416.050

10% Perc = 17.026 7.118 6.143 14.641 35.234 0.208 0.087 0.075 0.179 0.430 10 4.891 40.694 389.326 468.625 481.656

15% Perc = 18.780 7.812 6.565 15.653 37.731 0.229 0.095 0.080 0.191 0.460 15 5.644 47.454 436.771 520.138 530.393

20% Perc = 20.186 8.445 6.931 16.547 39.950 0.246 0.103 0.085 0.202 0.487 20 6.364 52.287 474.957 556.814 568.368

25% Perc = 21.421 9.056 7.289 17.285 41.730 0.261 0.110 0.089 0.211 0.509 25 7.047 57.930 506.613 591.448 603.815

30% Perc = 22.786 9.614 7.577 18.136 43.264 0.278 0.117 0.092 0.221 0.528 30 7.687 62.830 535.962 624.978 636.837

35% Perc = 24.053 10.251 7.881 18.906 45.020 0.293 0.125 0.096 0.231 0.549 35 8.330 67.786 566.772 654.256 666.580

40% Perc = 25.298 10.804 8.171 19.616 46.469 0.309 0.132 0.100 0.239 0.567 40 8.939 72.357 594.537 683.643 695.143

45% Perc = 26.372 11.402 8.452 20.381 48.104 0.322 0.139 0.103 0.249 0.587 45 9.694 77.248 624.378 716.518 728.524

50% Perc = 27.659 12.074 8.747 21.222 49.564 0.337 0.147 0.107 0.259 0.604 50 10.457 82.870 655.379 747.614 760.963

55% Perc = 28.854 12.696 9.047 22.026 51.248 0.352 0.155 0.110 0.269 0.625 55 11.293 88.617 687.216 779.291 791.385

60% Perc = 30.179 13.465 9.348 22.850 52.923 0.368 0.164 0.114 0.279 0.645 60 12.053 94.054 720.446 811.147 823.953

65% Perc = 31.604 14.284 9.662 23.826 54.763 0.385 0.174 0.118 0.291 0.668 65 12.949 99.517 754.067 844.205 856.545

70% Perc = 32.981 15.279 10.064 24.871 56.785 0.402 0.186 0.123 0.303 0.692 70 13.900 106.880 785.081 880.688 891.481

75% Perc = 34.572 16.337 10.461 26.089 58.812 0.422 0.199 0.128 0.318 0.717 75 15.164 113.996 826.945 922.591 933.668

80% Perc = 36.468 17.475 10.946 27.449 61.204 0.445 0.213 0.133 0.335 0.746 80 16.602 123.177 875.826 971.241 983.217

85% Perc = 38.630 19.073 11.507 29.141 64.459 0.471 0.233 0.140 0.355 0.786 85 18.547 135.503 936.725 1030.085 1040.930

90% Perc = 41.498 20.957 12.236 31.377 68.218 0.506 0.256 0.149 0.383 0.832 90 20.683 149.750 1008.444 1114.361 1129.230

95% Perc = 45.695 24.519 13.366 34.951 73.336 0.557 0.299 0.163 0.426 0.894 95 24.617 175.429 1123.291 1221.134 1231.424

Maximum = 71.083 40.789 19.820 54.524 113.299 0.867 0.497 0.242 0.665 1.382 ## 54.955 342.292 1813.537 1897.859 1904.195

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4114
Table 4.1.15

LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 11.84 6.40 2.04 8.44 20.29 0.43 0.23 0.07 0.30 0.73 4.52 32.97 31.53 64.50 69.02

Std Deviation = 4.40 3.28 1.09 3.48 5.64 0.16 0.12 0.04 0.13 0.20 3.05 24.51 18.28 30.89 31.08

Variance = 19.348 10.786 1.192 12.124 31.843 0.025 0.014 0.002 0.016 0.041 9.274 600.710 334.154 954.380 965.871

Skewness = 0.53 0.71 0.74 0.64 0.44 0.53 0.71 0.74 0.64 0.44 1.46 1.51 0.94 1.03 1.01

Kurtosis = 2.90 2.94 3.04 3.01 2.93 2.90 2.94 3.04 3.01 2.93 5.83 5.94 3.55 4.48 4.43

Mode = 8.60 3.77 1.28 6.39 15.55 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.11 0.49 2.75 19.67 20.14 61.43 53.06

Minimum = 1.738 0.642 0.151 1.682 6.395 0.063 0.023 0.005 0.061 0.230 0 -0.176 -6.560 2.383 8.213 12.493

5% Perc = 5.556 2.135 0.642 3.637 11.873 0.200 0.077 0.023 0.131 0.427 5 1.073 6.275 9.100 24.149 28.379

10% Perc = 6.562 2.646 0.793 4.379 13.311 0.236 0.095 0.029 0.158 0.479 10 1.435 8.793 11.613 29.860 33.817

15% Perc = 7.263 3.013 0.917 4.890 14.460 0.261 0.108 0.033 0.176 0.520 15 1.766 11.052 13.420 34.493 38.671

20% Perc = 7.973 3.416 1.029 5.328 15.289 0.287 0.123 0.037 0.192 0.550 20 2.045 13.214 15.432 37.929 42.310

25% Perc = 8.558 3.796 1.162 5.763 16.157 0.308 0.137 0.042 0.207 0.581 25 2.335 15.195 17.226 41.453 45.967

30% Perc = 9.120 4.185 1.286 6.177 16.889 0.328 0.151 0.046 0.222 0.608 30 2.613 17.289 19.251 44.938 49.510

35% Perc = 9.625 4.550 1.429 6.630 17.579 0.346 0.164 0.051 0.239 0.633 35 2.889 19.521 21.092 48.488 53.232

40% Perc = 10.153 4.923 1.558 7.036 18.371 0.365 0.177 0.056 0.253 0.661 40 3.162 21.810 23.138 52.575 56.777

45% Perc = 10.684 5.360 1.685 7.463 19.067 0.384 0.193 0.061 0.269 0.686 45 3.483 24.061 25.372 56.009 60.573

50% Perc = 11.287 5.817 1.847 7.907 19.758 0.406 0.209 0.066 0.284 0.711 50 3.769 26.844 27.420 59.632 63.911

55% Perc = 11.940 6.291 2.010 8.394 20.537 0.430 0.226 0.072 0.302 0.739 55 4.104 29.332 30.020 63.146 67.760

60% Perc = 12.563 6.784 2.153 8.898 21.268 0.452 0.244 0.077 0.320 0.765 60 4.482 32.302 32.382 67.019 71.944

65% Perc = 13.181 7.299 2.324 9.401 22.085 0.474 0.263 0.084 0.338 0.795 65 4.897 35.629 35.189 71.393 76.060

70% Perc = 13.892 7.864 2.540 10.035 22.955 0.500 0.283 0.091 0.361 0.826 70 5.343 39.254 38.532 75.963 80.572

75% Perc = 14.728 8.472 2.739 10.706 23.883 0.530 0.305 0.099 0.385 0.859 75 5.871 43.697 42.088 81.799 86.483

80% Perc = 15.583 9.249 2.991 11.392 25.110 0.561 0.333 0.108 0.410 0.904 80 6.566 49.323 46.313 88.197 92.703

85% Perc = 16.571 10.077 3.251 12.194 26.476 0.596 0.363 0.117 0.439 0.953 85 7.450 56.184 51.478 95.278 99.830

90% Perc = 17.975 11.108 3.622 13.343 28.040 0.647 0.400 0.130 0.480 1.009 90 8.600 66.722 58.675 105.176 109.731

95% Perc = 20.016 12.735 4.134 15.014 30.402 0.720 0.458 0.149 0.540 1.094 95 10.635 81.963 67.074 122.099 127.267

Maximum = 28.739 18.649 6.346 21.854 44.120 1.034 0.671 0.228 0.786 1.588 ## 22.803 177.421 114.673 226.057 227.982

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4115
Table 4.1.16

LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 6.30 0.53 0.53 1.07 7.37 0.23 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.27 2.87 2.99 2.99 5.99 8.86

Std Deviation = 3.44 0.30 0.30 0.60 3.48 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.13 2.67 2.33 2.33 4.66 5.41

Variance = 11.813 0.090 0.090 0.359 12.112 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.016 7.127 5.426 5.426 21.704 29.253

Skewness = 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.66 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.66 1.64 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.96

Kurtosis = 2.98 3.04 3.04 3.04 2.93 2.98 3.04 3.04 3.04 2.93 6.19 4.71 4.71 4.71 3.91

Mode = 4.87 0.28 0.28 0.56 6.61 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.20 4.53 1.56 1.56 3.13 5.72

Minimum = 0.616 0.019 0.019 0.039 0.814 0.022 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.029 0 -0.767 -0.841 -0.841 -1.683 -0.674

5% Perc = 1.790 0.140 0.140 0.279 2.683 0.064 0.005 0.005 0.010 0.097 5 0.194 0.302 0.302 0.604 1.958

10% Perc = 2.282 0.188 0.188 0.376 3.327 0.082 0.007 0.007 0.014 0.120 10 0.421 0.595 0.595 1.189 2.835

15% Perc = 2.762 0.227 0.227 0.454 3.772 0.099 0.008 0.008 0.016 0.136 15 0.579 0.843 0.843 1.685 3.542

20% Perc = 3.140 0.260 0.260 0.520 4.180 0.113 0.009 0.009 0.019 0.150 20 0.760 1.057 1.057 2.114 4.180

25% Perc = 3.537 0.292 0.292 0.583 4.610 0.127 0.010 0.010 0.021 0.166 25 0.934 1.258 1.258 2.517 4.818

30% Perc = 3.932 0.328 0.328 0.657 5.023 0.141 0.012 0.012 0.024 0.181 30 1.134 1.455 1.455 2.911 5.426

35% Perc = 4.386 0.362 0.362 0.723 5.462 0.158 0.013 0.013 0.026 0.196 35 1.327 1.687 1.687 3.373 6.016

40% Perc = 4.837 0.398 0.398 0.795 5.868 0.174 0.014 0.014 0.029 0.211 40 1.539 1.906 1.906 3.811 6.548

45% Perc = 5.244 0.433 0.433 0.867 6.329 0.189 0.016 0.016 0.031 0.228 45 1.775 2.162 2.162 4.323 7.142

50% Perc = 5.691 0.476 0.476 0.952 6.809 0.205 0.017 0.017 0.034 0.245 50 2.068 2.425 2.425 4.850 7.776

55% Perc = 6.194 0.525 0.525 1.049 7.305 0.223 0.019 0.019 0.038 0.263 55 2.327 2.688 2.688 5.377 8.475

60% Perc = 6.719 0.575 0.575 1.149 7.818 0.242 0.021 0.021 0.041 0.281 60 2.664 2.995 2.995 5.990 9.197

65% Perc = 7.294 0.622 0.622 1.244 8.340 0.262 0.022 0.022 0.045 0.300 65 3.047 3.328 3.328 6.657 9.948

70% Perc = 7.885 0.674 0.674 1.349 8.954 0.284 0.024 0.024 0.049 0.322 70 3.498 3.700 3.700 7.401 10.841

75% Perc = 8.600 0.725 0.725 1.450 9.669 0.309 0.026 0.026 0.052 0.348 75 3.955 4.187 4.187 8.374 11.905

80% Perc = 9.323 0.787 0.787 1.574 10.450 0.335 0.028 0.028 0.057 0.376 80 4.609 4.709 4.709 9.417 13.150

85% Perc = 10.089 0.864 0.864 1.728 11.280 0.363 0.031 0.031 0.062 0.406 85 5.442 5.409 5.409 10.817 14.671

90% Perc = 11.065 0.956 0.956 1.913 12.234 0.398 0.034 0.034 0.069 0.440 90 6.547 6.316 6.316 12.632 16.425

95% Perc = 12.813 1.096 1.096 2.193 13.863 0.461 0.039 0.039 0.079 0.499 95 8.306 7.544 7.544 15.089 19.075

Maximum = 19.119 1.776 1.776 3.551 19.990 0.688 0.064 0.064 0.128 0.719 ## 19.140 15.819 15.819 31.637 34.329

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4116
Table 4.1.17

LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 0.60 1.80 3.00 4.80 5.40 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.17 0.19 0.31 22.10 364.30 386.40 386.71

Std Deviation = 0.23 0.68 0.83 1.45 1.47 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.22 14.60 136.21 136.99 136.99

Variance = 0.052 0.467 0.683 2.092 2.148 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.047 213.264 18553.270 18765.030 18765.050

Skewness = -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.88 0.49 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.41 2.42 2.67 2.53 2.56 2.41 2.42 2.67 2.53 2.56 3.44 3.62 3.16 3.17 3.17

Mode = 0.64 1.85 3.23 2.54 5.92 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.09 0.22 0.32 14.40 287.18 318.95 418.46

Minimum = 0.040 0.130 0.660 0.895 1.145 0.001 0.005 0.024 0.032 0.041 0 -0.129 -4.646 50.321 74.939 75.448

5% Perc = 0.216 0.650 1.647 2.404 2.972 0.008 0.023 0.059 0.087 0.107 5 0.022 2.972 160.685 180.452 180.751

10% Perc = 0.288 0.868 1.917 2.870 3.461 0.010 0.031 0.069 0.103 0.125 10 0.060 5.387 195.760 216.465 216.767

15% Perc = 0.346 1.038 2.111 3.236 3.806 0.012 0.037 0.076 0.116 0.137 15 0.089 7.446 222.385 243.998 244.404

20% Perc = 0.396 1.184 2.268 3.520 4.103 0.014 0.043 0.082 0.127 0.148 20 0.119 9.470 244.315 266.559 266.646

25% Perc = 0.437 1.310 2.421 3.758 4.359 0.016 0.047 0.087 0.135 0.157 25 0.144 11.211 266.778 289.075 289.484

30% Perc = 0.473 1.426 2.549 3.991 4.577 0.017 0.051 0.092 0.144 0.165 30 0.170 12.752 285.826 307.005 307.370

35% Perc = 0.508 1.528 2.680 4.221 4.806 0.018 0.055 0.096 0.152 0.173 35 0.198 14.284 302.888 323.557 323.857

40% Perc = 0.541 1.622 2.787 4.430 5.022 0.019 0.058 0.100 0.159 0.181 40 0.225 15.993 319.194 342.617 342.958

45% Perc = 0.570 1.712 2.892 4.612 5.204 0.021 0.062 0.104 0.166 0.187 45 0.251 17.709 336.813 358.655 359.018

50% Perc = 0.601 1.802 3.002 4.800 5.396 0.022 0.065 0.108 0.173 0.194 50 0.278 19.621 352.882 374.943 375.324

55% Perc = 0.629 1.888 3.116 5.001 5.597 0.023 0.068 0.112 0.180 0.201 55 0.307 21.350 369.386 391.571 391.688

60% Perc = 0.659 1.972 3.230 5.200 5.793 0.024 0.071 0.116 0.187 0.208 60 0.335 23.446 386.894 409.249 409.549

65% Perc = 0.693 2.071 3.341 5.395 6.006 0.025 0.075 0.120 0.194 0.216 65 0.365 25.648 405.309 427.858 428.147

70% Perc = 0.728 2.171 3.457 5.600 6.204 0.026 0.078 0.124 0.201 0.223 70 0.401 27.884 427.483 449.470 449.741

75% Perc = 0.763 2.286 3.580 5.829 6.428 0.027 0.082 0.129 0.210 0.231 75 0.441 30.575 450.559 472.802 473.232

80% Perc = 0.806 2.407 3.713 6.078 6.705 0.029 0.087 0.134 0.219 0.241 80 0.487 33.351 475.309 498.438 498.661

85% Perc = 0.849 2.544 3.871 6.365 6.992 0.031 0.092 0.139 0.229 0.252 85 0.544 37.272 507.456 528.856 529.286

90% Perc = 0.905 2.716 4.088 6.701 7.327 0.033 0.098 0.147 0.241 0.264 90 0.618 42.369 545.759 568.775 568.983

95% Perc = 0.977 2.949 4.373 7.215 7.826 0.035 0.106 0.157 0.260 0.282 95 0.721 50.317 610.322 631.210 631.436

Maximum = 1.185 3.656 5.922 9.578 10.127 0.043 0.132 0.213 0.345 0.364 ## 1.241 85.423 936.882 960.176 960.225

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4117
Table 4.1.18

LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 6.90 2.33 3.54 5.87 12.77 0.25 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.46 3.18 25.10 367.29 392.39 395.57

Std Deviation = 3.45 0.75 0.88 1.57 3.73 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.13 2.67 14.74 136.23 137.05 137.01

Variance = 11.870 0.559 0.774 2.458 13.930 0.015 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.018 7.155 217.224 18558.070 18782.550 18770.940

Skewness = 0.69 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.49 0.69 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.49 1.61 0.84 0.49 0.49 0.49

Kurtosis = 2.98 2.56 2.68 2.61 2.93 2.98 2.56 2.68 2.61 2.93 6.08 3.56 3.17 3.18 3.18

Mode = 8.06 2.36 3.61 6.01 12.47 0.20 0.08 0.13 0.22 0.45 1.13 32.46 364.11 315.39 498.41

Minimum = 0.873 0.305 0.840 1.148 3.062 0.031 0.011 0.030 0.041 0.110 0 -0.386 -2.180 52.163 76.453 77.406

5% Perc = 2.327 1.090 2.081 3.242 7.313 0.084 0.039 0.075 0.117 0.263 5 0.457 5.419 163.714 186.922 190.652

10% Perc = 2.908 1.328 2.376 3.782 8.224 0.105 0.048 0.085 0.136 0.296 10 0.699 8.301 198.845 222.995 226.515

15% Perc = 3.367 1.511 2.576 4.166 8.938 0.121 0.054 0.093 0.150 0.322 15 0.900 10.508 225.812 249.802 253.392

20% Perc = 3.762 1.668 2.761 4.473 9.555 0.135 0.060 0.099 0.161 0.344 20 1.085 12.335 246.930 272.146 275.806

25% Perc = 4.144 1.795 2.917 4.758 10.014 0.149 0.065 0.105 0.171 0.360 25 1.263 13.901 269.532 294.985 298.503

30% Perc = 4.541 1.912 3.066 5.006 10.482 0.163 0.069 0.110 0.180 0.377 30 1.453 15.631 288.446 314.022 316.965

35% Perc = 4.995 2.021 3.194 5.225 10.911 0.180 0.073 0.115 0.188 0.393 35 1.631 17.262 305.892 330.526 333.855

40% Perc = 5.410 2.136 3.310 5.455 11.443 0.195 0.077 0.119 0.196 0.412 40 1.849 19.041 322.554 348.128 351.286

45% Perc = 5.844 2.245 3.424 5.664 11.870 0.210 0.081 0.123 0.204 0.427 45 2.102 20.920 339.429 364.641 367.487

50% Perc = 6.309 2.334 3.548 5.877 12.350 0.227 0.084 0.128 0.211 0.444 50 2.354 22.631 356.128 380.643 384.235

55% Perc = 6.824 2.422 3.654 6.069 12.786 0.246 0.087 0.131 0.218 0.460 55 2.661 24.504 372.203 398.121 400.999

60% Perc = 7.347 2.521 3.758 6.269 13.387 0.264 0.091 0.135 0.226 0.482 60 3.012 26.523 389.732 415.097 418.027

65% Perc = 7.859 2.628 3.881 6.493 13.945 0.283 0.095 0.140 0.234 0.502 65 3.396 28.838 408.413 433.073 436.649

70% Perc = 8.508 2.742 4.018 6.738 14.557 0.306 0.099 0.145 0.242 0.524 70 3.766 31.000 430.075 455.627 458.752

75% Perc = 9.238 2.854 4.153 6.965 15.219 0.332 0.103 0.149 0.251 0.548 75 4.317 33.589 453.063 479.211 481.846

80% Perc = 9.888 2.995 4.296 7.237 15.919 0.356 0.108 0.155 0.260 0.573 80 4.951 36.720 478.262 504.749 507.511

85% Perc = 10.746 3.139 4.467 7.545 16.828 0.387 0.113 0.161 0.271 0.606 85 5.773 40.384 510.646 534.652 537.957

90% Perc = 11.694 3.310 4.681 7.928 17.877 0.421 0.119 0.168 0.285 0.643 90 6.882 45.594 548.244 573.899 576.545

95% Perc = 13.396 3.574 4.992 8.450 19.465 0.482 0.129 0.180 0.304 0.700 95 8.665 53.444 612.760 636.753 640.579

Maximum = 19.623 4.874 6.436 11.127 26.807 0.706 0.175 0.232 0.400 0.965 ## 19.319 89.447 943.395 973.203 975.798

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4118
Table 4.1.19

LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

Chukchi Sea

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 18.75 8.73 5.58 14.31 33.06 0.67 0.31 0.20 0.51 1.19 7.70 58.07 398.82 456.88 464.58

Std Deviation = 5.62 3.37 1.38 3.82 6.74 0.20 0.12 0.05 0.14 0.24 4.02 28.68 137.13 140.52 140.45

Variance = 31.532 11.369 1.917 14.581 45.482 0.041 0.015 0.002 0.019 0.059 16.173 822.613 18803.430 19745.690 19726.240

Skewness = 0.44 0.66 0.31 0.50 0.36 0.44 0.66 0.31 0.50 0.36 1.01 1.04 0.47 0.46 0.46

Kurtosis = 3.01 2.92 2.98 2.96 2.95 3.01 2.92 2.98 2.96 2.95 4.07 4.44 3.17 3.19 3.19

Mode = 13.64 5.58 5.47 12.54 32.44 0.49 0.20 0.18 0.45 1.04 5.00 56.26 374.54 373.31 408.73

Minimum = 4.092 1.256 1.723 4.762 14.153 0.147 0.045 0.062 0.171 0.509 0 0.268 2.243 77.191 108.764 113.130

5% Perc = 10.274 4.146 3.461 8.767 22.860 0.370 0.149 0.125 0.315 0.823 5 2.629 20.820 191.883 243.895 251.861

10% Perc = 11.775 4.813 3.906 9.689 24.705 0.424 0.173 0.141 0.349 0.889 10 3.294 26.142 229.978 283.065 290.558

15% Perc = 12.975 5.324 4.149 10.409 25.873 0.467 0.192 0.149 0.375 0.931 15 3.787 30.063 255.684 310.332 319.624

20% Perc = 13.811 5.767 4.381 11.024 27.075 0.497 0.208 0.158 0.397 0.974 20 4.274 33.808 278.816 334.991 342.824

25% Perc = 14.736 6.151 4.577 11.575 28.197 0.530 0.221 0.165 0.417 1.015 25 4.694 37.415 300.114 357.315 365.196

30% Perc = 15.426 6.510 4.776 12.048 29.062 0.555 0.234 0.172 0.434 1.046 30 5.145 40.505 319.479 377.038 384.128

35% Perc = 16.085 6.884 4.955 12.503 30.003 0.579 0.248 0.178 0.450 1.080 35 5.568 43.684 338.946 396.019 404.121

40% Perc = 16.808 7.275 5.130 12.915 30.931 0.605 0.262 0.185 0.465 1.113 40 6.035 46.871 355.618 413.597 421.117

45% Perc = 17.500 7.753 5.296 13.380 31.812 0.630 0.279 0.191 0.481 1.145 45 6.477 50.566 373.390 429.995 437.554

50% Perc = 18.217 8.187 5.486 13.832 32.690 0.655 0.295 0.197 0.498 1.176 50 6.888 53.548 387.586 445.359 452.860

55% Perc = 18.960 8.626 5.663 14.316 33.532 0.682 0.310 0.204 0.515 1.207 55 7.365 56.516 402.974 460.539 467.770

60% Perc = 19.722 9.147 5.864 14.799 34.420 0.710 0.329 0.211 0.532 1.238 60 7.878 60.107 420.690 478.827 487.006

65% Perc = 20.579 9.649 6.080 15.407 35.349 0.740 0.347 0.219 0.554 1.272 65 8.470 63.595 440.886 498.279 506.907

70% Perc = 21.477 10.248 6.265 16.075 36.318 0.773 0.369 0.225 0.578 1.307 70 9.176 68.042 461.899 521.269 529.353

75% Perc = 22.421 10.863 6.481 16.760 37.501 0.807 0.391 0.233 0.603 1.349 75 9.916 72.895 484.459 547.210 554.252

80% Perc = 23.482 11.595 6.744 17.553 38.677 0.845 0.417 0.243 0.632 1.392 80 10.782 78.550 509.542 572.186 580.116

85% Perc = 24.715 12.510 7.026 18.452 40.045 0.889 0.450 0.253 0.664 1.441 85 11.878 85.994 541.842 607.143 614.189

90% Perc = 26.291 13.580 7.445 19.677 42.051 0.946 0.489 0.268 0.708 1.513 90 13.217 96.880 579.196 645.235 651.907

95% Perc = 28.868 15.147 7.978 21.346 44.886 1.039 0.545 0.287 0.768 1.615 95 15.477 112.821 644.195 701.835 708.975

Maximum = 42.186 21.106 10.805 28.334 57.947 1.518 0.759 0.389 1.020 2.085 ## 26.931 206.342 1002.925 1048.495 1052.608

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4119
Table 4.1.20

Composition of Spill Indicators - Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 17.366 59% 10.236 86% 1.019 11% 11.255 53% 28.621 56% P/L 17.366 61% 9.307 70% 2.962 33% 12.268 55% 29.635 58%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 9.307 31% 0.866 7% 3.056 33% 3.923 18% 13.230 26% Platforms 10.236 36% 0.866 7% 0.866 10% 1.733 8% 11.969 24%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 2.962 10% 0.866 7% 5.169 56% 6.035 28% 8.997 18% Wells 1.019 4% 3.056 23% 5.169 57% 8.225 37% 9.244 18%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 12.268 41% 1.733 14% 8.225 89% 9.958 47% 22.226 44% Platforms

and Wells 11.255 39% 3.923 30% 6.035 67% 9.958 45% 21.212 42%

All Spills 29.635 100% 11.969 100% 9.244 100% 21.212 100% 50.847 100% All 28.621 100% 13.230 100% 8.997 100% 22.226 100% 50.847 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.212 59% 0.125 86% 0.012 11% 0.137 53% 0.349 56% P/L 0.212 61% 0.113 70% 0.036 33% 0.150 55% 0.361 58%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.113 31% 0.011 7% 0.037 33% 0.048 18% 0.161 26% Platforms 0.125 36% 0.011 7% 0.011 10% 0.021 8% 0.146 24%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.036 10% 0.011 7% 0.063 56% 0.074 28% 0.110 18% Wells 0.012 4% 0.037 23% 0.063 57% 0.100 37% 0.113 18%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.150 41% 0.021 14% 0.100 89% 0.121 47% 0.271 44% Platformsand Wells 0.137 39% 0.048 30% 0.074 67% 0.121 45% 0.259 42%

All Spills 0.361 100% 0.146 100% 0.113 100% 0.259 100% 0.620 100% All 0.349 100% 0.161 100% 0.110 100% 0.271 100% 0.620 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 7 7% 5 32% 1 0% 5 1% 12 2% P/L 7 56% 48 53% 46 7% 94 12% 101 13%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 48 48% 5 34% 38 6% 43 6% 91 12% Platforms 5 39% 5 5% 5 1% 10 1% 14 2%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 46 45% 5 34% 631 94% 636 93% 682 87% Wells 1 4% 38 42% 631 93% 669 87% 670 85%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 94 93% 10 68% 669 100% 679 99% 773 98% Platformsand Wells 5 44% 43 47% 636 93% 679 88% 684 87%

All Spills 101 100% 14 100% 670 100% 684 100% 785 100% All 12 100% 91 100% 682 100% 773 100% 785 100%

Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4120
Table 4.1.21

Composition of Spill Indicators - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 11.854 58% 6.296 86% 0.599 11% 6.895 54% 18.750 57% P/L 11.854 63% 6.404 73% 2.042 37% 8.446 59% 20.301 61%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 6.404 32% 0.533 7% 1.798 33% 2.331 18% 8.735 26% Platforms 6.296 34% 0.533 6% 0.533 10% 1.066 7% 7.362 22%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 2.042 10% 0.533 7% 3.004 56% 3.536 28% 5.578 17% Wells 0.599 3% 1.798 21% 3.004 54% 4.802 34% 5.401 16%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 8.446 42% 1.066 14% 4.802 89% 5.867 46% 14.313 43% Platforms

and Wells 6.895 37% 2.331 27% 3.536 63% 5.867 41% 12.763 39%

All Spills 20.301 100% 7.362 100% 5.401 100% 12.763 100% 33.063 100% All 18.750 100% 8.735 100% 5.578 100% 14.313 100% 33.063 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.427 58% 0.227 86% 0.022 11% 0.248 54% 0.675 57% P/L 0.427 63% 0.230 73% 0.073 37% 0.304 59% 0.730 61%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.230 32% 0.019 7% 0.065 33% 0.084 18% 0.314 26% Platforms 0.227 34% 0.019 6% 0.019 10% 0.038 7% 0.265 22%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.073 10% 0.019 7% 0.108 56% 0.127 28% 0.201 17% Wells 0.022 3% 0.065 21% 0.108 54% 0.173 34% 0.194 16%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.304 42% 0.038 14% 0.173 89% 0.211 46% 0.515 43% Platformsand Wells 0.248 37% 0.084 27% 0.127 63% 0.211 41% 0.459 39%

All Spills 0.730 100% 0.265 100% 0.194 100% 0.459 100% 1.190 100% All 0.675 100% 0.314 100% 0.201 100% 0.515 100% 1.190 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 5 7% 3 32% 0 0% 3 1% 8 2% P/L 5 59% 33 57% 32 8% 65 14% 69 15%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 33 48% 3 34% 22 6% 25 6% 58 13% Platforms 3 37% 3 5% 3 1% 6 1% 9 2%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 32 46% 3 34% 365 94% 368 93% 399 86% Wells 0 4% 22 38% 365 91% 387 85% 387 83%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 65 93% 6 68% 387 100% 393 99% 458 98% Platformsand Wells 3 41% 25 43% 368 92% 393 86% 396 85%

All Spills 69 100% 9 100% 387 100% 396 100% 465 100% All 8 100% 58 100% 399 100% 458 100% 465 100%

LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

 LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsT4121
Figure 4.1.1

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4101

Spill Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.2

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4102

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.3

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4103

Spill Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.4

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4104

Spill Frequency - P/L

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.5

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4105

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.6

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4106

Spill Index - P/L

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.7

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4107

Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.8

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4108

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.9

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4109

Spill Index - Platforms

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.10

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4110

Spill Frequency - Wells

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.11

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4111

Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.12

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4112

Spill Index - Wells

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.1.13

 Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

 Spill Frequency - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Index - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Spill Frequency - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Spill Index - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4113
Figure 4.1.14

Spill Frequency - CDF

CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4114
Figure 4.1.15

Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF 

CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4115
Figure 4.1.16

Spill Index [bbl] - CDF 

CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4116
Figure 4.1.17

Year 2024 - Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

24%

58%

18%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 50.847

Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

24%

58%

18%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 0.620

Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

85%

2% 13% P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 785

Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

56%

26%

18%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 50.847

Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

26%

56% 18%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 0.620

Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

2%

86%

12%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 785

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4117
Figure 4.1.18

LOF Average Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

57%

26%

17%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.190

LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

57%

17% 26%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 33.063

LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

62%

16%

22%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 33.063

LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

62%

16%

22%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.190

LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

15%

2%

83%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 465

LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

2%

13%

85%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 465

C4_1ChukchiSea.xlsF4118
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

APPENDIX 4

Spill Occurrence

4.2

Arctic Spill Occurrence

Chukchi Sea Non-Arctic
Table 4.2.1

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea P/L

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Deep 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Total

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 10 5.172 0.832 0.06 9.051 1.456 0.71 5.172 0.832 4.39 1.293 0.208 3.10 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 10 0.832 0.06 1.456 0.71 0.832 4.39 0.208 3.10 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 15 5.172 1.248 0.09 9.051 2.184 1.06 5.172 1.248 6.59 1.293 0.312 4.64 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 15 1.248 0.09 2.184 1.06 1.248 6.59 0.312 4.64 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 20 5.172 1.664 0.12 9.051 2.913 1.41 5.172 1.664 8.79 1.293 0.416 6.19 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 20 1.664 0.12 2.913 1.41 1.664 8.79 0.416 6.19 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 25 5.172 2.080 0.15 9.051 3.641 1.77 5.172 2.080 10.98 1.293 0.520 7.74 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 25 2.080 0.15 3.641 1.77 2.080 10.98 0.520 7.74 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Water 

Depth

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

P/L Dia <10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

2019

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

2010

2011

2012

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2020

Year

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia >= 10"

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4201
Table 4.2.1

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence Chukchi Sea P/L

71 485 5279 14880 71 516 5176 15552

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

105km-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Water 

Depth

P/L Dia <10"

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

P/L

[miles]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

P/L Dia >= 10"

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

Shallow 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 3.328 9.985 9.985 3.328

Medium 5.172 9.051 5.172 1.293 30 3.328 1.607 0.11 9.985 4.820 2.49 9.985 4.820 24.94 3.328 1.607 24.98

Deep 30 5.172 2.497 0.18 9.051 4.369 2.12 5.172 2.497 13.18 1.293 0.624 9.29 60 3.328 3.213 0.23 9.985 9.639 4.97 9.985 9.639 49.89 3.328 3.213 49.97

Total 30 2.497 0.18 4.369 2.12 2.497 13.18 0.624 9.29 90 4.820 0.34 14.459 7.46 14.459 74.83 4.820 74.95

2041

2042

2043

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2029

2030

2031

2044

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4201
Table 4.2.2

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - P/L - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 54.0 5.652 0.105 0.402 15.915 0.295 8.166 21.567 0.399 8.568 15.291 0.283 79.227 5.028 0.093 78.049 20.318 0.376 157.276 41.885 0.776 165.844

2021 70.0 6.068 0.087 0.432 16.643 0.238 8.519 22.711 0.324 8.951 15.707 0.224 81.424 5.132 0.073 79.597 20.839 0.298 161.020 43.550 0.622 169.971

2022 82.0 6.484 0.079 0.462 17.371 0.212 8.872 23.855 0.291 9.334 16.123 0.197 83.620 5.236 0.064 81.145 21.359 0.260 164.765 45.214 0.551 174.098

2023 82.0 6.900 0.084 0.491 18.099 0.221 9.225 24.999 0.305 9.716 16.539 0.202 85.817 5.340 0.065 82.692 21.879 0.267 168.509 46.878 0.572 178.225

2024 82.0 7.316 0.089 0.521 18.828 0.230 9.578 26.144 0.319 10.099 16.955 0.207 88.013 5.444 0.066 84.240 22.399 0.273 172.253 48.543 0.592 182.352

2025 82.0 7.316 0.089 0.521 18.828 0.230 9.578 26.144 0.319 10.099 16.955 0.207 88.013 5.444 0.066 84.240 22.399 0.273 172.253 48.543 0.592 182.352

2026 72.2 7.316 0.101 0.521 18.828 0.261 9.578 26.144 0.362 10.099 16.955 0.235 88.013 5.444 0.075 84.240 22.399 0.310 172.253 48.543 0.672 182.352

2027 63.5 7.316 0.115 0.521 18.828 0.296 9.578 26.144 0.412 10.099 16.955 0.267 88.013 5.444 0.086 84.240 22.399 0.353 172.253 48.543 0.764 182.352

2028 55.9 7.316 0.131 0.521 18.828 0.337 9.578 26.144 0.468 10.099 16.955 0.303 88.013 5.444 0.097 84.240 22.399 0.401 172.253 48.543 0.868 182.352

2029 49.2 7.316 0.149 0.521 18.828 0.383 9.578 26.144 0.531 10.099 16.955 0.345 88.013 5.444 0.111 84.240 22.399 0.455 172.253 48.543 0.987 182.352

2030 43.3 7.316 0.169 0.521 18.828 0.435 9.578 26.144 0.604 10.099 16.955 0.392 88.013 5.444 0.126 84.240 22.399 0.517 172.253 48.543 1.121 182.352

2031 38.1 7.316 0.192 0.521 18.828 0.494 9.578 26.144 0.686 10.099 16.955 0.445 88.013 5.444 0.143 84.240 22.399 0.588 172.253 48.543 1.274 182.352

2032 33.5 7.316 0.218 0.521 18.828 0.562 9.578 26.144 0.780 10.099 16.955 0.506 88.013 5.444 0.162 84.240 22.399 0.669 172.253 48.543 1.449 182.352

2033 29.5 7.316 0.248 0.521 18.828 0.638 9.578 26.144 0.886 10.099 16.955 0.575 88.013 5.444 0.185 84.240 22.399 0.759 172.253 48.543 1.646 182.352

2034 26.0 7.316 0.281 0.521 18.828 0.724 9.578 26.144 1.006 10.099 16.955 0.652 88.013 5.444 0.209 84.240 22.399 0.861 172.253 48.543 1.867 182.352

2035 22.8 7.316 0.321 0.521 18.828 0.826 9.578 26.144 1.147 10.099 16.955 0.744 88.013 5.444 0.239 84.240 22.399 0.982 172.253 48.543 2.129 182.352

2036 20.1 7.316 0.364 0.521 18.828 0.937 9.578 26.144 1.301 10.099 16.955 0.844 88.013 5.444 0.271 84.240 22.399 1.114 172.253 48.543 2.415 182.352

2037 17.7 7.316 0.413 0.521 18.828 1.064 9.578 26.144 1.477 10.099 16.955 0.958 88.013 5.444 0.308 84.240 22.399 1.265 172.253 48.543 2.743 182.352

2038 15.6 7.316 0.469 0.521 18.828 1.207 9.578 26.144 1.676 10.099 16.955 1.087 88.013 5.444 0.349 84.240 22.399 1.436 172.253 48.543 3.112 182.352

2039 13.7 7.316 0.534 0.521 18.828 1.374 9.578 26.144 1.908 10.099 16.955 1.238 88.013 5.444 0.397 84.240 22.399 1.635 172.253 48.543 3.543 182.352

2040 12.1 7.316 0.605 0.521 18.828 1.556 9.578 26.144 2.161 10.099 16.955 1.401 88.013 5.444 0.450 84.240 22.399 1.851 172.253 48.543 4.012 182.352

2041 10.6 7.316 0.690 0.521 18.828 1.776 9.578 26.144 2.466 10.099 16.955 1.600 88.013 5.444 0.514 84.240 22.399 2.113 172.253 48.543 4.579 182.352

2042 9.3 7.316 0.787 0.521 18.828 2.024 9.578 26.144 2.811 10.099 16.955 1.823 88.013 5.444 0.585 84.240 22.399 2.408 172.253 48.543 5.220 182.352

2043 8.2 7.316 0.892 0.521 18.828 2.296 9.578 26.144 3.188 10.099 16.955 2.068 88.013 5.444 0.664 84.240 22.399 2.732 172.253 48.543 5.920 182.352

2044 7.2 7.316 1.016 0.521 18.828 2.615 9.578 26.144 3.631 10.099 16.955 2.355 88.013 5.444 0.756 84.240 22.399 3.111 172.253 48.543 6.742 182.352

Total

 LOF 1000.5 178.7 12.7 463.4 235.9 642.2 248.7 419.7 2178.4 135.1 2090.5 554.8 4268.9 1196.9 4517.5

Average LOF 4.965 0.179 0.35 12.872 0.463 6.55 17.838 0.642 6.91 11.659 0.420 60.51 3.751 0.135 58.07 15.410 0.554 118.58 33.248 1.196 125.49

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small Spills

50-99 bbl

Medium Spills

100-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4202
Table 4.2.3

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms

452 5631

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 2.157 0.360

Total

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 5 2.157 1.079 0.49 0.360 0.180 1.01

Total 1 5 1.079 0.49 0.180 1.01

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 20 2.157 4.314 1.95 0.360 0.719 4.05

Total 1 20 4.314 1.95 0.719 4.05

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 35 2.157 7.550 3.41 0.360 1.258 7.09

Total 1 35 7.550 3.41 1.258 7.09

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 50 2.157 10.786 4.87 0.360 1.798 10.12

Total 1 50 10.786 4.87 1.798 10.12

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 56 2.157 12.080 5.46 0.360 2.013 11.34

Total 1 56 12.080 5.46 2.013 11.34

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

2010

Year

N Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

2013

2011

2012

2022

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4203
Table 4.2.3

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms

452 5631

Cum.

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year

N Platforms

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Water 

N P Wells

Depth

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 62 2.157 13.374 6.04 0.360 2.229 12.55

Total 1 62 13.374 6.04 2.229 12.55

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 57 2.157 12.296 5.56 0.360 2.049 11.54

Total 1 57 12.296 5.56 2.049 11.54

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 42 2.157 9.060 4.09 0.360 1.510 8.50

Total 1 42 9.060 4.09 1.510 8.50

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 27 2.157 5.824 2.63 0.360 0.971 5.47

Total 1 27 5.824 2.63 0.971 5.47

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 12 2.157 2.589 1.17 0.360 0.431 2.43

Total 1 12 2.589 1.17 0.431 2.43

Shallow 2.157 0.360

Medium 2.157 0.360

Deep 1 6 2.157 1.294 0.58 0.360 0.216 1.21

Total 1 6 1.294 0.58 0.216 1.21

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2044

2037

2042

2043

2038

2039

2040

2041

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4203
Table 4.2.4

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Platforms - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 54.0 1.079 0.020 0.487 0.180 0.003 1.012 0.180 0.003 1.012 1.258 0.023 1.500

2021 70.0 4.314 0.062 1.950 0.719 0.010 4.049 0.719 0.010 4.049 5.033 0.072 5.999

2022 82.0 7.550 0.092 3.412 1.258 0.015 7.086 1.258 0.015 7.086 8.808 0.107 10.498

2023 82.0 10.786 0.132 4.874 1.798 0.022 10.122 1.798 0.022 10.122 12.583 0.153 14.997

2024 82.0 12.080 0.147 5.459 2.013 0.025 11.337 2.013 0.025 11.337 14.093 0.172 16.796

2025 82.0 13.374 0.163 6.044 2.229 0.027 12.552 2.229 0.027 12.552 15.603 0.190 18.596

2026 72.2 13.374 0.185 6.044 2.229 0.031 12.552 2.229 0.031 12.552 15.603 0.216 18.596

2027 63.5 13.374 0.211 6.044 2.229 0.035 12.552 2.229 0.035 12.552 15.603 0.246 18.596

2028 55.9 13.374 0.239 6.044 2.229 0.040 12.552 2.229 0.040 12.552 15.603 0.279 18.596

2029 49.2 13.374 0.272 6.044 2.229 0.045 12.552 2.229 0.045 12.552 15.603 0.317 18.596

2030 43.3 13.374 0.309 6.044 2.229 0.051 12.552 2.229 0.051 12.552 15.603 0.360 18.596

2031 38.1 13.374 0.351 6.044 2.229 0.059 12.552 2.229 0.059 12.552 15.603 0.410 18.596

2032 33.5 13.374 0.399 6.044 2.229 0.067 12.552 2.229 0.067 12.552 15.603 0.466 18.596

2033 29.5 13.374 0.453 6.044 2.229 0.076 12.552 2.229 0.076 12.552 15.603 0.529 18.596

2034 26.0 13.374 0.514 6.044 2.229 0.086 12.552 2.229 0.086 12.552 15.603 0.600 18.596

2035 22.8 13.374 0.587 6.044 2.229 0.098 12.552 2.229 0.098 12.552 15.603 0.684 18.596

2036 20.1 13.374 0.665 6.044 2.229 0.111 12.552 2.229 0.111 12.552 15.603 0.776 18.596

2037 17.7 13.374 0.756 6.044 2.229 0.126 12.552 2.229 0.126 12.552 15.603 0.882 18.596

2038 15.6 13.374 0.857 6.044 2.229 0.143 12.552 2.229 0.143 12.552 15.603 1.000 18.596

2039 13.7 13.374 0.976 6.044 2.229 0.163 12.552 15.603 1.139 18.596 15.603 1.139 18.596

2040 12.1 12.296 1.016 5.557 2.049 0.169 11.539 14.345 1.186 17.096 14.345 1.186 17.096

2041 10.6 9.060 0.855 4.094 1.510 0.142 8.503 10.570 0.997 12.597 10.570 0.997 12.597

2042 9.3 5.824 0.626 2.632 0.971 0.104 5.466 6.795 0.731 8.098 6.795 0.731 8.098

2043 8.2 2.589 0.316 1.170 0.431 0.053 2.429 3.020 0.368 3.599 3.020 0.368 3.599

2044 7.2 1.294 0.180 0.585 0.216 0.030 1.215 1.510 0.210 1.800 1.510 0.210 1.800

Total

 LOF 1000.5 267.5 120.9 44.6 251.0 89.0 271.1 312.1 371.9

Average LOF 7.430 0.267 3.36 1.238 0.045 6.97 2.473 0.089 7.53 8.668 0.312 10.33

Year

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4204
Table 4.2.5

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Total

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 6 0.147 0.088 0.05 1.026 0.616 3.26 0.440 0.264 18.03 0.293 0.176 35.18

Total 6 0.088 0.05 0.616 3.26 0.264 18.03 0.176 35.18

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 17 0.147 0.249 0.13 1.026 1.744 9.23 0.440 0.748 51.10 0.293 0.498 99.68

Total 17 0.249 0.13 1.744 9.23 0.748 51.10 0.498 99.68

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 38 0.147 0.557 0.29 1.026 3.899 20.64 0.440 1.671 114.22 0.293 1.114 222.82

Total 38 0.557 0.29 3.899 20.64 1.671 114.22 1.114 222.82

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 59 0.147 0.865 0.45 1.026 6.054 32.04 0.440 2.595 177.34 0.293 1.730 345.95

Total 59 0.865 0.45 6.054 32.04 2.595 177.34 1.730 345.95

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 80 0.147 1.173 0.61 1.026 8.209 43.44 0.440 3.518 240.46 0.293 2.345 469.09

Total 80 1.173 0.61 8.209 43.44 3.518 240.46 2.345 469.09

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 92 0.147 1.349 0.70 1.026 9.440 49.96 0.440 4.046 276.53 0.293 2.697 539.45

Total 92 1.349 0.70 9.440 49.96 4.046 276.53 2.697 539.45

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2010

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

=>150000 bbl

2011

2012

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Water Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Depth

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Year

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4205
Table 4.2.5

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Unif.

Dist.

MD.

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104well-year

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Production Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills

=>150000 bbl

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Water Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Depth

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills

10000-149999 bbl

Year

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 98 0.147 1.437 0.75 1.026 10.056 53.22 0.440 4.310 294.57 0.293 2.873 574.64

Total 98 1.437 0.75 10.056 53.22 4.310 294.57 2.873 574.64

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 92 0.147 1.349 0.70 1.026 9.440 49.96 0.440 4.046 276.53 0.293 2.697 539.45

Total 92 1.349 0.70 9.440 49.96 4.046 276.53 2.697 539.45

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 81 0.147 1.187 0.62 1.026 8.312 43.99 0.440 3.562 243.47 0.293 2.375 474.95

Total 81 1.187 0.62 8.312 43.99 3.562 243.47 2.375 474.95

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 60 0.147 0.880 0.46 1.026 6.157 32.58 0.440 2.639 180.35 0.293 1.759 351.82

Total 60 0.880 0.46 6.157 32.58 2.639 180.35 1.759 351.82

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 39 0.147 0.572 0.30 1.026 4.002 21.18 0.440 1.715 117.23 0.293 1.143 228.68

Total 39 0.572 0.30 4.002 21.18 1.715 117.23 1.143 228.68

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 18 0.147 0.264 0.14 1.026 1.847 9.77 0.440 0.792 54.10 0.293 0.528 105.55

Total 18 0.264 0.14 1.847 9.77 0.792 54.10 0.528 105.55

Shallow 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Medium 0.147 1.026 0.440 0.293

Deep 6 0.147 0.088 0.05 1.026 0.616 3.26 0.440 0.264 18.03 0.293 0.176 35.18

Total 6 0.088 0.05 0.616 3.26 0.264 18.03 0.176 35.18

2038

2027

2028

2036

2037

2039

2029

2030

2031

2044

2041

2042

2043

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4205
Table 4.2.6

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Production Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.088 0.046 0.264 3.258 0.440 53.216 0.792 56.520

2020 54.0 0.249 0.005 0.129 0.748 0.014 9.232 1.246 0.023 150.780 2.243 0.042 160.141

2021 70.0 0.557 0.008 0.289 1.671 0.024 20.636 2.785 0.040 337.038 5.013 0.072 357.962

2022 82.0 0.865 0.011 0.449 2.595 0.032 32.039 4.324 0.053 523.295 7.784 0.095 555.784

2023 82.0 1.173 0.014 0.609 3.518 0.043 43.443 5.864 0.072 709.553 10.555 0.129 753.605

2024 82.0 1.349 0.016 0.700 4.046 0.049 49.960 6.743 0.082 815.986 12.138 0.148 866.646

2025 82.0 1.437 0.018 0.746 4.310 0.053 53.218 7.183 0.088 869.202 12.929 0.158 923.166

2026 72.2 1.437 0.020 0.746 4.310 0.060 53.218 7.183 0.099 869.202 12.929 0.179 923.166

2027 63.5 1.437 0.023 0.746 4.310 0.068 53.218 7.183 0.113 869.202 12.929 0.204 923.166

2028 55.9 1.437 0.026 0.746 4.310 0.077 53.218 7.183 0.128 869.202 12.929 0.231 923.166

2029 49.2 1.437 0.029 0.746 4.310 0.088 53.218 7.183 0.146 869.202 12.929 0.263 923.166

2030 43.3 1.437 0.033 0.746 4.310 0.100 53.218 7.183 0.166 869.202 12.929 0.299 923.166

2031 38.1 1.437 0.038 0.746 4.310 0.113 53.218 7.183 0.189 869.202 12.929 0.339 923.166

2032 33.5 1.437 0.043 0.746 4.310 0.129 53.218 7.183 0.214 869.202 12.929 0.386 923.166

2033 29.5 1.437 0.049 0.746 4.310 0.146 53.218 7.183 0.243 869.202 12.929 0.438 923.166

2034 26.0 1.437 0.055 0.746 4.310 0.166 53.218 7.183 0.276 869.202 12.929 0.497 923.166

2035 22.8 1.437 0.063 0.746 4.310 0.189 53.218 7.183 0.315 869.202 12.929 0.567 923.166

2036 20.1 1.437 0.071 0.746 4.310 0.214 53.218 7.183 0.357 869.202 12.929 0.643 923.166

2037 17.7 1.437 0.081 0.746 4.310 0.243 53.218 7.183 0.406 869.202 12.929 0.730 923.166

2038 15.6 1.437 0.092 0.746 4.310 0.276 53.218 7.183 0.460 869.202 12.929 0.829 923.166

2039 13.7 1.349 0.098 0.700 4.046 0.295 49.960 6.743 0.492 815.986 12.138 0.886 866.646

2040 12.1 1.187 0.098 0.617 3.562 0.294 43.986 5.937 0.491 718.422 10.686 0.883 763.025

2041 10.6 0.880 0.083 0.457 2.639 0.249 32.582 4.398 0.415 532.165 7.916 0.747 565.204

2042 9.3 0.572 0.061 0.297 1.715 0.184 21.179 2.859 0.307 345.907 5.145 0.553 367.382

2043 8.2 0.264 0.032 0.137 0.792 0.097 9.775 1.319 0.161 159.649 2.375 0.290 169.561

2044 7.2 0.088 0.012 0.046 0.264 0.037 3.258 0.176 0.024 35.182 0.528 0.073 38.486

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4206
Table 4.2.7

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 1 2.262 0.226 0.12 15.824 1.582 8.37 6.799 0.680 46.47 3.936 0.394 78.73

Total 1 0.226 0.12 1.582 8.37 0.680 46.47 0.394 78.73

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

2013

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2009

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2010

2011

2012

Year

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4207
Table 4.2.7

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Exploration Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

N Wells

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Expected Spill [bbl] = Year

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

Shallow 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Medium 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Deep 2.262 15.824 6.799 3.936

Total

2041

2042

2043

2028

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2030

2031

2044

2029

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4207
Table 4.2.8

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Exploration Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2004 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2005 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2006

2007

2008

2009 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2010 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 54.0

2016 70.0

2017 82.0

2018 82.0

2019 82.0

2020 82.0

2021 72.2

2022 63.5

2023 55.9

2024 49.2

2025 43.3

2026 38.1

2027 33.5

2028 29.5

2029 26.0

2030 22.8

2031 20.1

2032 17.7

2033 15.6

2034 13.7

2035 12.1

2036 10.6

2037 9.3

2038 8.2

2039 7.2

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4208
Table 4.2.9

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 2 0.692 0.014 0.01 4.833 0.097 0.51 2.076 0.042 2.84 2.076 0.042 8.30

Total 2 0.014 0.01 0.097 0.51 0.042 2.84 0.042 8.30

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 2 0.692 0.014 0.01 4.833 0.097 0.51 2.076 0.042 2.84 2.076 0.042 8.30

Total 2 0.014 0.01 0.097 0.51 0.042 2.84 0.042 8.30

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 2 0.692 0.014 0.01 4.833 0.097 0.51 2.076 0.042 2.84 2.076 0.042 8.30

Total 2 0.014 0.01 0.097 0.51 0.042 2.84 0.042 8.30

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 6 0.692 0.042 0.02 4.833 0.290 1.53 2.076 0.125 8.51 2.076 0.125 24.91

Total 6 0.042 0.02 0.290 1.53 0.125 8.51 0.125 24.91

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 11 0.692 0.076 0.04 4.833 0.532 2.81 2.076 0.228 15.61 2.076 0.228 45.67

Total 11 0.076 0.04 0.532 2.81 0.228 15.61 0.228 45.67

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 21 0.692 0.145 0.08 4.833 1.015 5.37 2.076 0.436 29.80 2.076 0.436 87.19

Total 21 0.145 0.08 1.015 5.37 0.436 29.80 0.436 87.19

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 21 0.692 0.145 0.08 4.833 1.015 5.37 2.076 0.436 29.80 2.076 0.436 87.19

Total 21 0.145 0.08 1.015 5.37 0.436 29.80 0.436 87.19

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 21 0.692 0.145 0.08 4.833 1.015 5.37 2.076 0.436 29.80 2.076 0.436 87.19

Total 21 0.145 0.08 1.015 5.37 0.436 29.80 0.436 87.19

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 12 0.692 0.083 0.04 4.833 0.580 3.07 2.076 0.249 17.03 2.076 0.249 49.83

Total 12 0.083 0.04 0.580 3.07 0.249 17.03 0.249 49.83

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 6 0.692 0.042 0.02 4.833 0.290 1.53 2.076 0.125 8.51 2.076 0.125 24.91

Total 6 0.042 0.02 0.290 1.53 0.125 8.51 0.125 24.91

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

2012

Year

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2013

Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

2010

2011

N Wells

2009

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

2026

2027

2028

2022

2023

2024

2025

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4209
Table 4.2.9

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells

519 5292 68349 200000

Cum.

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Frequency

spills per 

104wells

Frequency

spills per 

103years

Spill

Index

bbl

Year Expected Spill [bbl] = Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Spills 

10000-149999 bbl

N Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Development Wells Blowout

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Spills 

=>150000 bbl

Water 

Depth

Expected Spill [bbl] = 

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

Shallow 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Medium 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Deep 0.692 4.833 2.076 2.076

Total

2038

2039

2029

2030

2031

2028

2040

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2044

2041

2042

2043

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4209
Table 4.2.10

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Development Wells - Summary Frequency Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009

2010

2011 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

2012 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

2013 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.042 0.022 0.125 1.535 0.249 33.426 0.415 34.982

2020 54.0 0.076 0.001 0.040 0.228 0.004 2.814 0.457 0.008 61.281 0.761 0.014 64.135

2021 70.0 0.145 0.002 0.075 0.436 0.006 5.372 0.872 0.012 116.992 1.453 0.021 122.439

2022 82.0 0.145 0.002 0.075 0.436 0.005 5.372 0.872 0.011 116.992 1.453 0.018 122.439

2023 82.0 0.145 0.002 0.075 0.436 0.005 5.372 0.872 0.011 116.992 1.453 0.018 122.439

2024 82.0 0.083 0.001 0.043 0.249 0.003 3.069 0.498 0.006 66.852 0.830 0.010 69.965

2025 82.0 0.042 0.001 0.022 0.125 0.002 1.535 0.249 0.003 33.426 0.415 0.005 34.982

2026 72.2

2027 63.5

2028 55.9

2029 49.2

2030 43.3

2031 38.1

2032 33.5

2033 29.5

2034 26.0

2035 22.8

2036 20.1

2037 17.7

2038 15.6

2039 13.7

2040 12.1

2041 10.6

2042 9.3

2043 8.2

2044 7.2

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-99 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4210
Table 4.2.11

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Wells - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills 

per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2010 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2011 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.125 11.654 0.138 11.661

2012 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.125 11.654 0.138 11.661

2013 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.125 11.654 0.138 11.661

2014 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2015 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.129 0.067 0.388 4.793 0.689 86.643 1.077 91.436 1.207 91.503

2020 54.0 0.325 0.006 0.169 0.976 0.018 12.045 1.703 0.032 212.061 2.679 0.050 224.107 3.004 0.056 224.276

2021 70.0 0.702 0.010 0.365 2.107 0.030 26.007 3.657 0.052 454.029 5.764 0.082 480.036 6.467 0.092 480.401

2022 82.0 1.010 0.012 0.525 3.031 0.037 37.411 5.196 0.063 640.287 8.227 0.100 677.698 9.237 0.113 678.222

2023 82.0 1.318 0.016 0.685 3.954 0.048 48.815 6.736 0.082 826.544 10.690 0.130 875.359 12.008 0.146 876.044

2024 82.0 1.432 0.017 0.744 4.295 0.052 53.029 7.241 0.088 882.838 11.536 0.141 935.867 12.968 0.158 936.611

2025 82.0 1.478 0.018 0.768 4.434 0.054 54.753 7.432 0.091 902.628 11.866 0.145 957.381 13.345 0.163 958.149

2026 72.2 1.437 0.020 0.746 4.310 0.060 53.218 7.183 0.099 869.202 11.493 0.159 922.420 12.929 0.179 923.166

2027 63.5 1.437 0.023 0.746 4.310 0.068 53.218 7.183 0.113 869.202 11.493 0.181 922.420 12.929 0.204 923.166

2028 55.9 1.437 0.026 0.746 4.310 0.077 53.218 7.183 0.128 869.202 11.493 0.206 922.420 12.929 0.231 923.166

2029 49.2 1.437 0.029 0.746 4.310 0.088 53.218 7.183 0.146 869.202 11.493 0.234 922.420 12.929 0.263 923.166

2030 43.3 1.437 0.033 0.746 4.310 0.100 53.218 7.183 0.166 869.202 11.493 0.265 922.420 12.929 0.299 923.166

2031 38.1 1.437 0.038 0.746 4.310 0.113 53.218 7.183 0.189 869.202 11.493 0.302 922.420 12.929 0.339 923.166

2032 33.5 1.437 0.043 0.746 4.310 0.129 53.218 7.183 0.214 869.202 11.493 0.343 922.420 12.929 0.386 923.166

2033 29.5 1.437 0.049 0.746 4.310 0.146 53.218 7.183 0.243 869.202 11.493 0.390 922.420 12.929 0.438 923.166

2034 26.0 1.437 0.055 0.746 4.310 0.166 53.218 7.183 0.276 869.202 11.493 0.442 922.420 12.929 0.497 923.166

2035 22.8 1.437 0.063 0.746 4.310 0.189 53.218 7.183 0.315 869.202 11.493 0.504 922.420 12.929 0.567 923.166

2036 20.1 1.437 0.071 0.746 4.310 0.214 53.218 7.183 0.357 869.202 11.493 0.572 922.420 12.929 0.643 923.166

2037 17.7 1.437 0.081 0.746 4.310 0.243 53.218 7.183 0.406 869.202 11.493 0.649 922.420 12.929 0.730 923.166

2038 15.6 1.437 0.092 0.746 4.310 0.276 53.218 7.183 0.460 869.202 11.493 0.737 922.420 12.929 0.829 923.166

2039 13.7 1.349 0.098 0.700 4.046 0.295 49.960 6.743 0.492 815.986 10.789 0.788 865.945 12.138 0.886 866.646

2040 12.1 1.187 0.098 0.617 3.562 0.294 43.986 5.937 0.491 718.422 9.499 0.785 762.408 10.686 0.883 763.025

2041 10.6 0.880 0.083 0.457 2.639 0.249 32.582 4.398 0.415 532.165 7.036 0.664 564.747 7.916 0.747 565.204

2042 9.3 0.572 0.061 0.297 1.715 0.184 21.179 2.859 0.307 345.907 4.574 0.492 367.086 5.145 0.553 367.382

2043 8.2 0.264 0.032 0.137 0.792 0.097 9.775 1.319 0.161 159.649 2.111 0.257 169.424 2.375 0.290 169.561

2044 7.2 0.088 0.012 0.046 0.264 0.037 3.258 0.176 0.024 35.182 0.440 0.061 38.440 0.528 0.073 38.486

Total

 LOF 1000.5 30.4 15.8 91.1 1124.5 152.0 18446.2 243.1 19570.6 273.4 19586.4

Average LOF 0.843 0.030 0.44 2.530 0.091 31.23 4.222 0.152 512.39 6.752 0.243 543.63 7.595 0.273 544.07

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Small and Medium 

Spills

50-999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4211
Table 4.2.12

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells

Total 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells

Total 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

Total 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

Total 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

Total 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.138 11.661

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells

Total 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Development Wells

Total 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.980 133.690

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total

Pipeline

Platforms

Production Wells 0.088 0.046 0.264 3.258 0.440 53.216 0.792 56.520

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.042 0.022 0.125 1.535 0.249 33.426 0.415 34.982

Total 0.129 0.067 0.388 4.793 0.689 86.643 1.207 91.503

Pipeline 21.567 0.399 8.568 15.291 0.283 79.227 5.028 0.093 78.049 41.885 0.776 165.844

Platforms 1.079 0.020 0.487 0.090 0.002 0.506 0.090 0.002 0.506 1.258 0.023 1.500

Production Wells 0.249 0.005 0.129 0.748 0.014 9.232 1.246 0.023 150.780 2.243 0.042 160.141

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.076 0.001 0.040 0.228 0.004 2.814 0.457 0.008 61.281 0.761 0.014 64.135

Total 22.971 0.425 9.225 16.357 0.303 91.779 6.820 0.126 290.616 46.148 0.855 391.620

Pipeline 22.711 0.324 8.951 15.707 0.224 81.424 5.132 0.073 79.597 43.550 0.622 169.971

Platforms 4.314 0.062 1.950 0.360 0.005 2.024 0.360 0.005 2.024 5.033 0.072 5.999

Production Wells 0.557 0.008 0.289 1.671 0.024 20.636 2.785 0.040 337.038 5.013 0.072 357.962

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.145 0.002 0.075 0.436 0.006 5.372 0.872 0.012 116.992 1.453 0.021 122.439

Total 27.728 0.396 11.266 18.174 0.260 109.455 9.148 0.131 535.650 55.049 0.786 656.371

Pipeline 23.855 0.291 9.334 16.123 0.197 83.620 5.236 0.064 81.145 45.214 0.551 174.098

Platforms 7.550 0.092 3.412 0.629 0.008 3.543 0.629 0.008 3.543 8.808 0.107 10.498

Production Wells 0.865 0.011 0.449 2.595 0.032 32.039 4.324 0.053 523.295 7.784 0.095 555.784

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.145 0.002 0.075 0.436 0.005 5.372 0.872 0.011 116.992 1.453 0.018 122.439

Total 32.415 0.395 13.270 19.783 0.241 124.574 11.061 0.135 724.974 63.259 0.771 862.818

Pipeline 24.999 0.305 9.716 16.539 0.202 85.817 5.340 0.065 82.692 46.878 0.572 178.225

Platforms 10.786 0.132 4.874 0.899 0.011 5.061 0.899 0.011 5.061 12.583 0.153 14.997

Production Wells 1.173 0.014 0.609 3.518 0.043 43.443 5.864 0.072 709.553 10.555 0.129 753.605

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.145 0.002 0.075 0.436 0.005 5.372 0.872 0.011 116.992 1.453 0.018 122.439

Total 37.103 0.452 15.275 21.392 0.261 139.693 12.974 0.158 914.298 71.469 0.872 1069.266

Pipeline 26.144 0.319 10.099 16.955 0.207 88.013 5.444 0.066 84.240 48.543 0.592 182.352

Platforms 12.080 0.147 5.459 1.007 0.012 5.668 1.007 0.012 5.668 14.093 0.172 16.796

Production Wells 1.349 0.016 0.700 4.046 0.049 49.960 6.743 0.082 815.986 12.138 0.148 866.646

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.083 0.001 0.043 0.249 0.003 3.069 0.498 0.006 66.852 0.830 0.010 69.965

Total 39.655 0.484 16.302 22.257 0.271 146.711 13.692 0.167 972.747 75.604 0.922 1135.759

Pipeline 26.144 0.319 10.099 16.955 0.207 88.013 5.444 0.066 84.240 48.543 0.592 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.163 6.044 1.115 0.014 6.276 1.115 0.014 6.276 15.603 0.190 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.018 0.746 4.310 0.053 53.218 7.183 0.088 869.202 12.929 0.158 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells 0.042 0.001 0.022 0.125 0.002 1.535 0.249 0.003 33.426 0.415 0.005 34.982

Total 40.996 0.500 16.911 22.504 0.274 149.042 13.990 0.171 993.144 77.490 0.945 1159.097

Pipeline 26.144 0.362 10.099 16.955 0.235 88.013 5.444 0.075 84.240 48.543 0.672 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.185 6.044 1.115 0.015 6.276 1.115 0.015 6.276 15.603 0.216 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.020 0.746 4.310 0.060 53.218 7.183 0.099 869.202 12.929 0.179 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 0.567 16.889 22.380 0.310 147.507 13.741 0.190 959.718 77.075 1.068 1124.114

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2015

2017

2018

2021 70.0

2019

2020 54.0

2022 82.0

2023 82.0

2024 82.0

2025 82.0

2026 72.2

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4212
Table 4.2.12

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Pipeline 26.144 0.412 10.099 16.955 0.267 88.013 5.444 0.086 84.240 48.543 0.764 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.211 6.044 1.115 0.018 6.276 1.115 0.018 6.276 15.603 0.246 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.023 0.746 4.310 0.068 53.218 7.183 0.113 869.202 12.929 0.204 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 0.645 16.889 22.380 0.352 147.507 13.741 0.216 959.718 77.075 1.214 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 0.468 10.099 16.955 0.303 88.013 5.444 0.097 84.240 48.543 0.868 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.239 6.044 1.115 0.020 6.276 1.115 0.020 6.276 15.603 0.279 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.026 0.746 4.310 0.077 53.218 7.183 0.128 869.202 12.929 0.231 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 0.733 16.889 22.380 0.400 147.507 13.741 0.246 959.718 77.075 1.379 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 0.531 10.099 16.955 0.345 88.013 5.444 0.111 84.240 48.543 0.987 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.272 6.044 1.115 0.023 6.276 1.115 0.023 6.276 15.603 0.317 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.029 0.746 4.310 0.088 53.218 7.183 0.146 869.202 12.929 0.263 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 0.832 16.889 22.380 0.455 147.507 13.741 0.279 959.718 77.075 1.567 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 0.604 10.099 16.955 0.392 88.013 5.444 0.126 84.240 48.543 1.121 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.309 6.044 1.115 0.026 6.276 1.115 0.026 6.276 15.603 0.360 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.033 0.746 4.310 0.100 53.218 7.183 0.166 869.202 12.929 0.299 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 0.946 16.889 22.380 0.517 147.507 13.741 0.317 959.718 77.075 1.780 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 0.686 10.099 16.955 0.445 88.013 5.444 0.143 84.240 48.543 1.274 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.351 6.044 1.115 0.029 6.276 1.115 0.029 6.276 15.603 0.410 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.038 0.746 4.310 0.113 53.218 7.183 0.189 869.202 12.929 0.339 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 1.075 16.889 22.380 0.587 147.507 13.741 0.361 959.718 77.075 2.023 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 0.780 10.099 16.955 0.506 88.013 5.444 0.162 84.240 48.543 1.449 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.399 6.044 1.115 0.033 6.276 1.115 0.033 6.276 15.603 0.466 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.043 0.746 4.310 0.129 53.218 7.183 0.214 869.202 12.929 0.386 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 1.223 16.889 22.380 0.668 147.507 13.741 0.410 959.718 77.075 2.301 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 0.886 10.099 16.955 0.575 88.013 5.444 0.185 84.240 48.543 1.646 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.453 6.044 1.115 0.038 6.276 1.115 0.038 6.276 15.603 0.529 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.049 0.746 4.310 0.146 53.218 7.183 0.243 869.202 12.929 0.438 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 1.388 16.889 22.380 0.759 147.507 13.741 0.466 959.718 77.075 2.613 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 1.006 10.099 16.955 0.652 88.013 5.444 0.209 84.240 48.543 1.867 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.514 6.044 1.115 0.043 6.276 1.115 0.043 6.276 15.603 0.600 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.055 0.746 4.310 0.166 53.218 7.183 0.276 869.202 12.929 0.497 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 1.575 16.889 22.380 0.861 147.507 13.741 0.529 959.718 77.075 2.964 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 1.147 10.099 16.955 0.744 88.013 5.444 0.239 84.240 48.543 2.129 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.587 6.044 1.115 0.049 6.276 1.115 0.049 6.276 15.603 0.684 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.063 0.746 4.310 0.189 53.218 7.183 0.315 869.202 12.929 0.567 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 1.796 16.889 22.380 0.982 147.507 13.741 0.603 959.718 77.075 3.380 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 1.301 10.099 16.955 0.844 88.013 5.444 0.271 84.240 48.543 2.415 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.665 6.044 1.115 0.055 6.276 1.115 0.055 6.276 15.603 0.776 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.071 0.746 4.310 0.214 53.218 7.183 0.357 869.202 12.929 0.643 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 2.038 16.889 22.380 1.113 147.507 13.741 0.684 959.718 77.075 3.835 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 1.477 10.099 16.955 0.958 88.013 5.444 0.308 84.240 48.543 2.743 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.756 6.044 1.115 0.063 6.276 1.115 0.063 6.276 15.603 0.882 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.081 0.746 4.310 0.243 53.218 7.183 0.406 869.202 12.929 0.730 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 2.314 16.889 22.380 1.264 147.507 13.741 0.776 959.718 77.075 4.355 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 1.676 10.099 16.955 1.087 88.013 5.444 0.349 84.240 48.543 3.112 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.857 6.044 1.115 0.071 6.276 1.115 0.071 6.276 15.603 1.000 18.596

Production Wells 1.437 0.092 0.746 4.310 0.276 53.218 7.183 0.460 869.202 12.929 0.829 923.166

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.955 2.625 16.889 22.380 1.435 147.507 13.741 0.881 959.718 77.075 4.941 1124.114

Pipeline 26.144 1.908 10.099 16.955 1.238 88.013 5.444 0.397 84.240 48.543 3.543 182.352

Platforms 13.374 0.976 6.044 1.115 0.081 6.276 1.115 0.081 6.276 15.603 1.139 18.596

Production Wells 1.349 0.098 0.700 4.046 0.295 49.960 6.743 0.492 815.986 12.138 0.886 866.646

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 40.867 2.983 16.844 22.116 1.614 144.249 13.301 0.971 906.502 76.284 5.568 1067.594

Pipeline 26.144 2.161 10.099 16.955 1.401 88.013 5.444 0.450 84.240 48.543 4.012 182.352

Platforms 12.296 1.016 5.557 1.025 0.085 5.770 1.025 0.085 5.770 14.345 1.186 17.096

Production Wells 1.187 0.098 0.617 3.562 0.294 43.986 5.937 0.491 718.422 10.686 0.883 763.025

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 39.627 3.275 16.272 21.542 1.780 137.769 12.405 1.025 808.432 73.574 6.080 962.474

Pipeline 26.144 2.466 10.099 16.955 1.600 88.013 5.444 0.514 84.240 48.543 4.579 182.352

Platforms 9.060 0.855 4.094 0.755 0.071 4.251 0.755 0.071 4.251 10.570 0.997 12.597

Production Wells 0.880 0.083 0.457 2.639 0.249 32.582 4.398 0.415 532.165 7.916 0.747 565.204

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 36.083 3.404 14.650 20.349 1.920 124.847 10.596 1.000 620.656 67.028 6.323 760.153

Pipeline 26.144 2.811 10.099 16.955 1.823 88.013 5.444 0.585 84.240 48.543 5.220 182.352

Platforms 5.824 0.626 2.632 0.485 0.052 2.733 0.485 0.052 2.733 6.795 0.731 8.098

Production Wells 0.572 0.061 0.297 1.715 0.184 21.179 2.859 0.307 345.907 5.145 0.553 367.382

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 32.540 3.499 13.028 19.156 2.060 111.925 8.788 0.945 432.880 60.483 6.504 557.833

Pipeline 26.144 3.188 10.099 16.955 2.068 88.013 5.444 0.664 84.240 48.543 5.920 182.352

Platforms 2.589 0.316 1.170 0.216 0.026 1.215 0.216 0.026 1.215 3.020 0.368 3.599

Production Wells 0.264 0.032 0.137 0.792 0.097 9.775 1.319 0.161 159.649 2.375 0.290 169.561

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 28.996 3.536 11.406 17.963 2.191 99.002 6.979 0.851 245.104 53.937 6.578 355.513

Pipeline 26.144 3.631 10.099 16.955 2.355 88.013 5.444 0.756 84.240 48.543 6.742 182.352

Platforms 1.294 0.180 0.585 0.108 0.015 0.607 0.108 0.015 0.607 1.510 0.210 1.800

Production Wells 0.088 0.012 0.046 0.264 0.037 3.258 0.176 0.024 35.182 0.528 0.073 38.486

2027 63.5

2028 55.9

2029 49.2

2030 43.3

2031 38.1

2032 33.5

2033 29.5

2034 26.0

2035 22.8

2036 20.1

2037 17.7

2038 15.6

2039 13.7

2040 12.1

2041 10.6

2044 7.2

2042 9.3

2043 8.2

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4212
Table 4.2.12

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Facility

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Exploration Wells

Development Wells

Total 27.526 3.823 10.730 17.327 2.407 91.879 5.727 0.795 120.029 50.580 7.025 222.638

2044 7.2

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4212
Table 4.2.13

Non Arctic Spill Occurrence - Annual Summary

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency Spills 

per

109 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 10

3years

Frequency Spills 

per

10

9 bbl Produced

Spill Index [bbl]

2009 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2010 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2011 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.125 11.654 0.138 11.661

2012 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.125 11.654 0.138 11.661

2013 0.014 0.007 0.042 0.512 0.083 11.142 0.125 11.654 0.138 11.661

2014 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2015 0.226 0.117 0.680 8.374 1.074 125.199 1.753 133.573 1.980 133.690

2016

2017

2018

2019 0.129 0.067 0.388 4.793 0.689 86.643 1.077 91.436 1.207 91.503

2020 54.0 22.971 0.425 9.225 16.357 0.303 91.779 6.820 0.126 290.616 23.177 0.429 382.395 46.148 0.855 391.620

2021 70.0 27.728 0.396 11.266 18.174 0.260 109.455 9.148 0.131 535.650 27.322 0.390 645.105 55.049 0.786 656.371

2022 82.0 32.415 0.395 13.270 19.783 0.241 124.574 11.061 0.135 724.974 30.844 0.376 849.548 63.259 0.771 862.818

2023 82.0 37.103 0.452 15.275 21.392 0.261 139.693 12.974 0.158 914.298 34.366 0.419 1053.990 71.469 0.872 1069.266

2024 82.0 39.655 0.484 16.302 22.257 0.271 146.711 13.692 0.167 972.747 35.949 0.438 1119.457 75.604 0.922 1135.759

2025 82.0 40.996 0.500 16.911 22.504 0.274 149.042 13.990 0.171 993.144 36.494 0.445 1142.186 77.490 0.945 1159.097

2026 72.2 40.955 0.567 16.889 22.380 0.310 147.507 13.741 0.190 959.718 36.121 0.500 1107.225 77.075 1.068 1124.114

2027 63.5 40.955 0.645 16.889 22.380 0.352 147.507 13.741 0.216 959.718 36.121 0.569 1107.225 77.075 1.214 1124.114

2028 55.9 40.955 0.733 16.889 22.380 0.400 147.507 13.741 0.246 959.718 36.121 0.646 1107.225 77.075 1.379 1124.114

2029 49.2 40.955 0.832 16.889 22.380 0.455 147.507 13.741 0.279 959.718 36.121 0.734 1107.225 77.075 1.567 1124.114

2030 43.3 40.955 0.946 16.889 22.380 0.517 147.507 13.741 0.317 959.718 36.121 0.834 1107.225 77.075 1.780 1124.114

2031 38.1 40.955 1.075 16.889 22.380 0.587 147.507 13.741 0.361 959.718 36.121 0.948 1107.225 77.075 2.023 1124.114

2032 33.5 40.955 1.223 16.889 22.380 0.668 147.507 13.741 0.410 959.718 36.121 1.078 1107.225 77.075 2.301 1124.114

2033 29.5 40.955 1.388 16.889 22.380 0.759 147.507 13.741 0.466 959.718 36.121 1.224 1107.225 77.075 2.613 1124.114

2034 26.0 40.955 1.575 16.889 22.380 0.861 147.507 13.741 0.529 959.718 36.121 1.389 1107.225 77.075 2.964 1124.114

2035 22.8 40.955 1.796 16.889 22.380 0.982 147.507 13.741 0.603 959.718 36.121 1.584 1107.225 77.075 3.380 1124.114

2036 20.1 40.955 2.038 16.889 22.380 1.113 147.507 13.741 0.684 959.718 36.121 1.797 1107.225 77.075 3.835 1124.114

2037 17.7 40.955 2.314 16.889 22.380 1.264 147.507 13.741 0.776 959.718 36.121 2.041 1107.225 77.075 4.355 1124.114

2038 15.6 40.955 2.625 16.889 22.380 1.435 147.507 13.741 0.881 959.718 36.121 2.315 1107.225 77.075 4.941 1124.114

2039 13.7 40.867 2.983 16.844 22.116 1.614 144.249 13.301 0.971 906.502 35.417 2.585 1050.750 76.284 5.568 1067.594

2040 12.1 39.627 3.275 16.272 21.542 1.780 137.769 12.405 1.025 808.432 33.947 2.806 946.201 73.574 6.080 962.474

2041 10.6 36.083 3.404 14.650 20.349 1.920 124.847 10.596 1.000 620.656 30.945 2.919 745.503 67.028 6.323 760.153

2042 9.3 32.540 3.499 13.028 19.156 2.060 111.925 8.788 0.945 432.880 27.943 3.005 544.805 60.483 6.504 557.833

2043 8.2 28.996 3.536 11.406 17.963 2.191 99.002 6.979 0.851 245.104 24.941 3.042 344.107 53.937 6.578 355.513

2044 7.2 27.526 3.823 10.730 17.327 2.407 91.879 5.727 0.795 120.029 23.054 3.202 211.908 50.580 7.025 222.638

Total

 LOF 1000.5 940.0 385.3 533.1 3428.3 309.3 20662.2 842.4 24090.6 1782.4 24475.9

Average LOF 26.111 0.940 10.70 14.808 0.533 95.23 8.593 0.309 573.95 23.401 0.842 669.18 49.512 1.782 679.89

26.111 14.808 8.593 23.401 49.512

0.940 0.533 0.309 0.842 1.782

All Spills

Production [MMbbl]

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Year

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4213
Table 4.2.14

Non Arctic Year 2024 - Monte Carlo Results

Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Mean = 39.61 22.29 13.68 35.97 75.57 0.48 0.27 0.17 0.44 0.92 16.25 147.10 975.52 1122.62 1138.87

Std Deviation = 14.33 10.36 4.04 11.94 20.40 0.17 0.13 0.05 0.15 0.25 9.19 79.83 364.84 378.50 378.71

Variance = 205.475 107.361 16.320 142.557 416.278 0.031 0.016 0.002 0.021 0.062 84.399 6373.027 133109.100 143259.700 143422.100

Skewness = 0.58 0.95 0.54 0.81 0.54 0.58 0.95 0.54 0.81 0.54 1.19 1.28 0.62 0.60 0.60

Kurtosis = 3.32 3.81 3.20 3.68 3.29 3.32 3.81 3.20 3.68 3.29 4.94 5.69 3.40 3.38 3.38

Mode = 48.49 17.15 9.85 29.46 66.31 0.35 0.21 0.20 0.36 0.90 9.73 115.68 884.71 994.36 894.67

Minimum = 6.161 2.815 4.161 9.945 26.998 0.075 0.034 0.051 0.121 0.329 0 1.385 2.140 168.693 246.687 255.484

5% Perc = 18.698 9.169 7.786 19.774 45.380 0.228 0.112 0.095 0.241 0.553 5 5.003 47.729 453.884 572.888 589.701

10% Perc = 22.125 10.904 8.874 22.407 50.796 0.270 0.133 0.108 0.273 0.619 10 6.339 60.965 540.527 666.563 684.214

15% Perc = 25.056 12.183 9.559 24.284 54.685 0.305 0.149 0.117 0.296 0.667 15 7.416 72.064 602.377 737.262 755.237

20% Perc = 27.252 13.288 10.220 25.813 57.952 0.332 0.162 0.125 0.315 0.707 20 8.499 81.146 656.578 797.800 814.339

25% Perc = 29.098 14.345 10.716 27.242 60.953 0.355 0.175 0.131 0.332 0.743 25 9.478 90.551 710.277 849.281 865.661

30% Perc = 30.931 15.468 11.241 28.633 63.480 0.377 0.189 0.137 0.349 0.774 30 10.408 98.843 756.107 898.357 915.005

35% Perc = 32.790 16.582 11.713 29.819 66.131 0.399 0.202 0.143 0.364 0.806 35 11.329 106.722 803.265 945.708 962.444

40% Perc = 34.632 17.673 12.213 31.132 68.708 0.422 0.216 0.149 0.380 0.838 40 12.300 115.071 847.012 990.286 1005.391

45% Perc = 36.334 18.960 12.711 32.495 71.337 0.443 0.231 0.155 0.396 0.870 45 13.282 122.962 887.959 1032.693 1048.627

50% Perc = 38.171 20.254 13.219 33.937 73.772 0.465 0.247 0.161 0.414 0.900 50 14.366 132.104 935.077 1078.488 1094.215

55% Perc = 39.897 21.562 13.789 35.513 76.154 0.487 0.263 0.168 0.433 0.929 55 15.487 140.671 979.465 1130.261 1145.573

60% Perc = 42.025 23.039 14.372 37.260 78.846 0.512 0.281 0.175 0.454 0.961 60 16.711 150.356 1027.417 1177.157 1194.776

65% Perc = 44.007 24.738 14.935 38.966 81.688 0.537 0.302 0.182 0.475 0.996 65 18.083 161.545 1077.752 1231.870 1248.323

70% Perc = 46.249 26.357 15.548 40.868 84.591 0.564 0.321 0.190 0.498 1.031 70 19.548 173.467 1134.828 1287.830 1303.058

75% Perc = 48.563 28.305 16.212 42.742 87.718 0.592 0.345 0.198 0.521 1.070 75 21.006 187.084 1198.622 1355.410 1371.069

80% Perc = 51.178 30.543 17.034 45.399 91.741 0.624 0.372 0.208 0.554 1.119 80 22.913 202.561 1272.914 1431.628 1448.247

85% Perc = 54.371 33.170 17.956 48.435 97.000 0.663 0.405 0.219 0.591 1.183 85 25.471 224.540 1359.666 1524.364 1539.185

90% Perc = 58.840 36.657 19.060 52.315 103.387 0.718 0.447 0.232 0.638 1.261 90 28.878 254.009 1468.854 1630.356 1647.771

95% Perc = 65.448 42.328 20.971 58.634 112.435 0.798 0.516 0.256 0.715 1.371 95 34.057 299.713 1630.911 1808.828 1829.329

Maximum = 101.006 68.824 30.817 91.383 173.744 1.232 0.839 0.376 1.114 2.119 ## 68.862 709.552 2586.863 2901.651 2936.397

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4214
Table 4.2.15

Non Arctic LOF Average - Pipeline - Monte Carlo Results

Pipeline

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 17.84 11.66 3.75 15.41 33.25 0.64 0.42 0.14 0.55 1.20 6.87 59.83 57.71 117.55 124.41

Std Deviation = 6.67 6.14 2.03 6.49 9.44 0.24 0.22 0.07 0.23 0.34 4.64 44.40 33.36 55.59 55.92

Variance = 44.496 37.741 4.119 42.168 89.154 0.058 0.049 0.005 0.055 0.115 21.573 1971.008 1112.577 3090.054 3126.988

Skewness = 0.46 0.54 0.56 0.51 0.34 0.46 0.54 0.56 0.51 0.34 1.32 1.35 0.77 0.83 0.82

Kurtosis = 2.67 2.53 2.51 2.64 2.79 2.67 2.53 2.51 2.64 2.79 5.04 5.00 3.08 3.74 3.74

Mode = 15.94 15.53 1.56 7.08 35.01 0.57 0.56 0.06 0.25 1.26 4.18 31.73 26.23 85.48 98.73

Minimum = 3.362 0.633 0.142 2.375 8.272 0.121 0.023 0.005 0.085 0.298 0 -0.849 -6.892 2.155 9.629 12.701

5% Perc = 8.296 3.357 1.051 6.279 18.878 0.299 0.121 0.038 0.226 0.679 5 1.559 9.878 14.964 42.580 49.072

10% Perc = 9.706 4.341 1.368 7.511 21.221 0.349 0.156 0.049 0.270 0.764 10 2.132 15.051 19.920 53.763 60.104

15% Perc = 10.895 5.133 1.617 8.697 23.206 0.392 0.185 0.058 0.313 0.835 15 2.586 19.293 23.736 61.698 68.547

20% Perc = 11.895 5.952 1.841 9.535 24.817 0.428 0.214 0.066 0.343 0.893 20 2.975 23.350 27.404 68.905 75.701

25% Perc = 12.762 6.736 2.099 10.326 26.252 0.459 0.242 0.076 0.372 0.945 25 3.421 27.399 31.022 76.114 82.472

30% Perc = 13.530 7.410 2.329 11.114 27.579 0.487 0.267 0.084 0.400 0.992 30 3.845 31.437 34.609 82.629 89.048

35% Perc = 14.362 8.146 2.587 11.932 29.007 0.517 0.293 0.093 0.429 1.044 35 4.288 35.072 38.550 88.782 95.309

40% Perc = 15.228 8.890 2.858 12.751 30.230 0.548 0.320 0.103 0.459 1.088 40 4.736 39.469 42.793 95.424 102.268

45% Perc = 16.001 9.770 3.118 13.650 31.471 0.576 0.352 0.112 0.491 1.132 45 5.239 43.694 47.113 102.360 108.745

50% Perc = 16.902 10.646 3.424 14.446 32.644 0.608 0.383 0.123 0.520 1.175 50 5.737 47.969 51.424 108.647 115.734

55% Perc = 17.899 11.599 3.721 15.378 33.905 0.644 0.417 0.134 0.553 1.220 55 6.291 53.384 56.001 116.046 123.396

60% Perc = 19.006 12.593 4.052 16.402 35.191 0.684 0.453 0.146 0.590 1.266 60 6.866 59.366 61.035 123.704 130.788

65% Perc = 20.129 13.641 4.386 17.467 36.533 0.724 0.491 0.158 0.628 1.315 65 7.507 65.579 66.555 131.013 138.495

70% Perc = 21.255 14.708 4.724 18.699 37.892 0.765 0.529 0.170 0.673 1.363 70 8.248 72.633 72.694 140.035 147.359

75% Perc = 22.491 15.942 5.174 19.946 39.464 0.809 0.574 0.186 0.718 1.420 75 9.097 80.449 78.760 151.166 158.001

80% Perc = 23.689 17.372 5.612 21.242 41.172 0.852 0.625 0.202 0.764 1.481 80 10.171 90.256 85.735 162.904 170.213

85% Perc = 25.370 18.770 6.129 22.757 43.341 0.913 0.675 0.221 0.819 1.559 85 11.399 102.000 94.589 174.396 181.677

90% Perc = 27.270 20.591 6.755 24.591 45.983 0.981 0.741 0.243 0.885 1.655 90 13.469 122.241 105.919 191.612 199.793

95% Perc = 29.807 23.029 7.484 27.175 50.053 1.073 0.829 0.269 0.978 1.801 95 16.082 151.872 121.959 222.448 229.780

Maximum = 39.923 33.543 10.047 36.878 65.947 1.437 1.207 0.362 1.327 2.373 ## 32.811 317.831 186.969 406.513 422.782

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4215
Table 4.2.16

Non Arctic LOF Average - Platforms - Monte Carlo Results

Platforms

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 7.43 0.62 0.62 1.24 8.67 0.27 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.31 3.35 3.47 3.47 6.95 10.29

Std Deviation = 5.04 0.42 0.42 0.84 5.13 0.18 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.18 3.47 3.08 3.08 6.16 7.02

Variance = 25.426 0.177 0.177 0.706 26.306 0.033 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.034 12.038 9.474 9.474 37.896 49.339

Skewness = 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.54 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.54 1.73 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.01

Kurtosis = 2.40 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.40 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 6.48 4.43 4.43 4.43 3.93

Mode = 13.85 0.17 0.17 0.34 18.48 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.17 2.01 4.05 4.05 8.10 7.07

Minimum = 0.026 0.003 0.003 0.006 0.179 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0 -0.931 -1.479 -1.479 -2.958 -1.765

5% Perc = 0.850 0.071 0.071 0.142 1.836 0.031 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.066 5 0.130 0.206 0.206 0.413 1.678

10% Perc = 1.398 0.117 0.117 0.234 2.553 0.050 0.004 0.004 0.008 0.092 10 0.286 0.386 0.386 0.773 2.499

15% Perc = 1.986 0.165 0.165 0.330 3.211 0.071 0.006 0.006 0.012 0.115 15 0.455 0.609 0.609 1.217 3.329

20% Perc = 2.572 0.213 0.213 0.426 3.817 0.093 0.008 0.008 0.015 0.137 20 0.637 0.822 0.822 1.643 4.138

25% Perc = 3.161 0.264 0.264 0.527 4.387 0.114 0.009 0.009 0.019 0.158 25 0.845 1.063 1.063 2.127 4.918

30% Perc = 3.801 0.317 0.317 0.635 5.046 0.136 0.011 0.011 0.023 0.181 30 1.039 1.316 1.316 2.632 5.656

35% Perc = 4.454 0.370 0.370 0.740 5.721 0.160 0.013 0.013 0.027 0.206 35 1.285 1.623 1.623 3.246 6.360

40% Perc = 5.142 0.427 0.427 0.854 6.374 0.185 0.015 0.015 0.031 0.229 40 1.549 1.931 1.931 3.862 7.126

45% Perc = 5.814 0.484 0.484 0.968 7.063 0.209 0.017 0.017 0.035 0.254 45 1.844 2.261 2.261 4.521 7.930

50% Perc = 6.554 0.547 0.547 1.094 7.805 0.236 0.020 0.020 0.039 0.281 50 2.171 2.608 2.608 5.217 8.822

55% Perc = 7.328 0.612 0.612 1.223 8.620 0.264 0.022 0.022 0.044 0.310 55 2.542 3.000 3.000 6.000 9.795

60% Perc = 8.167 0.683 0.683 1.366 9.467 0.294 0.025 0.025 0.049 0.341 60 3.043 3.452 3.452 6.904 10.789

65% Perc = 9.029 0.754 0.754 1.508 10.281 0.325 0.027 0.027 0.054 0.370 65 3.502 3.932 3.932 7.863 11.840

70% Perc = 9.955 0.831 0.831 1.662 11.244 0.358 0.030 0.030 0.060 0.404 70 4.008 4.430 4.430 8.860 12.967

75% Perc = 10.983 0.918 0.918 1.835 12.325 0.395 0.033 0.033 0.066 0.443 75 4.685 5.076 5.076 10.151 14.273

80% Perc = 12.118 1.010 1.010 2.020 13.460 0.436 0.036 0.036 0.073 0.484 80 5.535 5.770 5.770 11.540 15.816

85% Perc = 13.383 1.117 1.117 2.235 14.669 0.482 0.040 0.040 0.080 0.528 85 6.700 6.697 6.697 13.394 17.569

90% Perc = 14.975 1.241 1.241 2.481 16.201 0.539 0.045 0.045 0.089 0.583 90 8.165 7.841 7.841 15.682 20.136

95% Perc = 16.933 1.406 1.406 2.812 18.395 0.609 0.051 0.051 0.101 0.662 95 10.674 9.753 9.753 19.507 23.951

Maximum = 21.517 1.855 1.855 3.710 23.267 0.774 0.067 0.067 0.134 0.837 ## 24.321 17.595 17.595 35.189 44.462

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4216
Table 4.2.17

Non Arctic LOF Average - Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 0.84 2.53 4.22 6.75 7.60 0.03 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.44 31.22 511.70 542.92 543.36

Std Deviation = 0.32 0.98 1.17 2.05 2.08 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.31 20.79 194.68 195.90 195.90

Variance = 0.105 0.951 1.364 4.209 4.343 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.006 0.095 432.084 37901.900 38377.100 38377.080

Skewness = 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.86 0.47 0.46 0.46

Kurtosis = 2.41 2.41 2.69 2.54 2.60 2.41 2.41 2.69 2.54 2.60 3.69 3.56 3.16 3.17 3.17

Mode = 0.61 2.48 4.12 6.23 10.30 0.04 0.10 0.16 0.28 0.34 0.66 22.49 645.40 367.92 485.27

Minimum = 0.051 0.145 0.512 0.731 1.650 0.002 0.005 0.018 0.026 0.059 0 -0.174 -8.114 57.907 87.645 88.312

5% Perc = 0.302 0.885 2.296 3.360 4.160 0.011 0.032 0.083 0.121 0.150 5 0.030 3.984 217.474 243.970 244.306

10% Perc = 0.405 1.217 2.708 4.001 4.825 0.015 0.044 0.097 0.144 0.174 10 0.086 7.376 272.532 301.716 302.025

15% Perc = 0.484 1.446 2.989 4.539 5.349 0.017 0.052 0.108 0.163 0.192 15 0.129 10.396 310.424 341.590 342.054

20% Perc = 0.552 1.656 3.209 4.957 5.757 0.020 0.060 0.115 0.178 0.207 20 0.169 12.980 341.359 374.212 374.797

25% Perc = 0.610 1.831 3.386 5.286 6.125 0.022 0.066 0.122 0.190 0.220 25 0.204 15.433 369.025 401.420 401.538

30% Perc = 0.666 1.987 3.582 5.616 6.466 0.024 0.071 0.129 0.202 0.233 30 0.241 17.802 394.858 427.035 427.596

35% Perc = 0.713 2.136 3.765 5.924 6.751 0.026 0.077 0.135 0.213 0.243 35 0.279 20.381 422.138 452.333 452.482

40% Perc = 0.757 2.280 3.924 6.211 7.043 0.027 0.082 0.141 0.224 0.253 40 0.313 22.633 446.998 478.682 479.010

45% Perc = 0.803 2.415 4.067 6.472 7.336 0.029 0.087 0.146 0.233 0.264 45 0.349 24.891 474.171 503.921 504.386

50% Perc = 0.842 2.539 4.212 6.747 7.607 0.030 0.091 0.152 0.243 0.274 50 0.385 27.266 499.217 529.695 530.133

55% Perc = 0.887 2.655 4.372 7.026 7.856 0.032 0.096 0.157 0.253 0.283 55 0.425 29.983 520.870 552.938 553.192

60% Perc = 0.927 2.786 4.517 7.281 8.137 0.033 0.100 0.163 0.262 0.293 60 0.466 32.790 547.462 578.179 578.674

65% Perc = 0.977 2.914 4.683 7.558 8.418 0.035 0.105 0.168 0.272 0.303 65 0.513 35.991 575.172 606.112 606.603

70% Perc = 1.022 3.076 4.864 7.884 8.719 0.037 0.111 0.175 0.284 0.314 70 0.565 39.496 604.205 634.470 635.031

75% Perc = 1.074 3.226 5.027 8.204 9.063 0.039 0.116 0.181 0.295 0.326 75 0.619 43.532 635.547 666.506 666.736

80% Perc = 1.133 3.415 5.222 8.583 9.433 0.041 0.123 0.188 0.309 0.339 80 0.679 47.935 668.148 702.796 703.197

85% Perc = 1.202 3.605 5.457 8.974 9.847 0.043 0.130 0.196 0.323 0.354 85 0.756 53.211 713.735 747.150 747.315

90% Perc = 1.283 3.847 5.738 9.465 10.346 0.046 0.138 0.206 0.341 0.372 90 0.857 60.291 769.392 801.609 802.244

95% Perc = 1.381 4.165 6.162 10.169 11.101 0.050 0.150 0.222 0.366 0.399 95 1.029 70.773 859.076 892.719 893.067

Maximum = 1.628 5.139 7.595 12.416 13.302 0.059 0.185 0.273 0.447 0.479 ## 1.756 121.609 1290.106 1369.357 1369.691

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4217
Table 4.2.18

Non Arctic LOF Average Platforms + Wells - Monte Carlo Results

Platforms +

Wells

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 8.27 3.15 4.84 7.99 16.27 0.30 0.11 0.17 0.29 0.59 3.79 34.69 515.18 549.87 553.65

Std Deviation = 5.06 1.06 1.24 2.21 5.55 0.18 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.20 3.48 21.04 194.73 196.04 196.04

Variance = 25.582 1.123 1.536 4.897 30.795 0.033 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.040 12.137 442.707 37918.840 38432.220 38432.820

Skewness = 0.56 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.45 0.56 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.45 1.71 0.83 0.47 0.46 0.46

Kurtosis = 2.41 2.54 2.77 2.65 2.55 2.41 2.54 2.77 2.65 2.55 6.43 3.52 3.16 3.17 3.16

Mode = 2.81 2.88 4.29 6.72 18.61 0.10 0.17 0.15 0.24 0.48 0.67 25.06 512.40 606.06 454.41

Minimum = 0.507 0.377 0.884 1.475 3.747 0.018 0.014 0.032 0.053 0.135 0 -0.838 -7.338 59.916 91.663 93.413

5% Perc = 1.687 1.365 2.775 4.338 8.359 0.061 0.049 0.100 0.156 0.301 5 0.454 6.842 220.903 250.726 255.348

10% Perc = 2.248 1.748 3.253 5.076 9.619 0.081 0.063 0.117 0.183 0.346 10 0.683 10.432 275.643 308.469 311.442

15% Perc = 2.814 1.992 3.532 5.589 10.476 0.101 0.072 0.127 0.201 0.377 15 0.882 13.508 314.345 349.351 352.725

20% Perc = 3.374 2.203 3.774 6.050 11.258 0.121 0.079 0.136 0.218 0.405 20 1.084 16.275 346.226 379.929 383.492

25% Perc = 4.043 2.397 3.989 6.458 11.995 0.145 0.086 0.144 0.232 0.432 25 1.282 18.788 373.236 407.891 411.794

30% Perc = 4.649 2.571 4.185 6.815 12.669 0.167 0.093 0.151 0.245 0.456 30 1.515 21.549 398.710 432.983 437.306

35% Perc = 5.309 2.731 4.352 7.109 13.399 0.191 0.098 0.157 0.256 0.482 35 1.746 23.934 425.350 459.792 463.320

40% Perc = 5.973 2.870 4.513 7.386 14.060 0.215 0.103 0.162 0.266 0.506 40 2.001 26.019 450.712 484.550 488.306

45% Perc = 6.661 3.004 4.657 7.685 14.728 0.240 0.108 0.168 0.277 0.530 45 2.281 28.401 477.634 511.492 516.064

50% Perc = 7.382 3.150 4.830 7.985 15.509 0.266 0.113 0.174 0.287 0.558 50 2.630 30.814 502.985 536.524 540.565

55% Perc = 8.181 3.297 4.996 8.254 16.237 0.294 0.119 0.180 0.297 0.584 55 3.029 33.678 524.341 559.841 563.482

60% Perc = 9.002 3.426 5.141 8.558 17.060 0.324 0.123 0.185 0.308 0.614 60 3.488 36.459 551.096 584.820 587.889

65% Perc = 9.926 3.575 5.319 8.850 18.065 0.357 0.129 0.191 0.318 0.650 65 3.939 39.535 578.845 614.257 618.357

70% Perc = 10.817 3.724 5.492 9.183 19.079 0.389 0.134 0.198 0.330 0.686 70 4.485 43.235 607.310 642.396 645.347

75% Perc = 11.787 3.913 5.685 9.535 20.114 0.424 0.141 0.205 0.343 0.724 75 5.138 47.342 639.280 672.211 676.723

80% Perc = 13.019 4.089 5.901 9.934 21.273 0.468 0.147 0.212 0.357 0.765 80 5.987 51.732 671.192 709.519 712.868

85% Perc = 14.244 4.305 6.159 10.379 22.647 0.513 0.155 0.222 0.373 0.815 85 7.117 57.014 718.778 755.440 758.945

90% Perc = 15.839 4.532 6.466 10.862 24.293 0.570 0.163 0.233 0.391 0.874 90 8.615 64.025 773.183 808.237 812.314

95% Perc = 17.859 4.882 6.876 11.610 26.360 0.643 0.176 0.247 0.418 0.948 95 11.090 74.233 860.211 898.146 901.743

Maximum = 22.987 6.252 8.565 14.543 34.430 0.827 0.225 0.308 0.523 1.239 ## 24.865 123.541 1295.034 1379.213 1381.047

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4218
Table 4.2.19

Non Arctic LOF Average - Monte Carlo Results

Chukchi Sea

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

All years 

Average LOF

Mean = 26.11 14.81 8.59 23.40 49.51 0.94 0.53 0.31 0.84 1.78 10.65 94.52 572.89 667.41 678.07

Std Deviation = 8.39 6.22 2.37 6.83 10.92 0.30 0.22 0.09 0.25 0.39 5.78 49.22 197.68 204.23 204.21

Variance = 70.378 38.718 5.630 46.699 119.260 0.091 0.050 0.007 0.060 0.154 33.372 2422.869 39077.630 41709.120 41700.440

Skewness = 0.32 0.52 0.35 0.44 0.25 0.32 0.52 0.35 0.44 0.25 0.98 1.08 0.47 0.45 0.44

Kurtosis = 2.76 2.54 2.72 2.69 2.78 2.76 2.54 2.72 2.69 2.78 4.09 4.46 3.16 3.16 3.16

Mode = 22.04 9.29 6.86 18.71 34.21 0.79 0.83 0.25 0.67 1.84 4.84 77.63 547.07 526.96 540.08

Minimum = 5.871 1.166 2.434 6.876 19.845 0.211 0.042 0.088 0.247 0.714 0 -0.060 3.198 88.560 146.325 149.223

5% Perc = 13.191 6.290 5.025 13.597 32.416 0.475 0.226 0.181 0.489 1.166 5 3.307 32.424 277.370 357.243 369.342

10% Perc = 15.466 7.478 5.672 15.174 35.602 0.556 0.269 0.204 0.546 1.281 10 4.224 40.726 327.522 416.663 427.551

15% Perc = 17.293 8.380 6.137 16.387 37.973 0.622 0.302 0.221 0.590 1.365 15 4.961 47.605 367.604 456.831 467.065

20% Perc = 18.617 9.086 6.491 17.341 39.829 0.670 0.327 0.234 0.624 1.433 20 5.601 53.266 400.904 489.267 499.725

25% Perc = 19.816 9.843 6.821 18.205 41.492 0.713 0.354 0.245 0.655 1.493 25 6.240 59.114 428.010 519.404 529.940

30% Perc = 21.042 10.568 7.134 19.035 43.045 0.757 0.380 0.257 0.685 1.549 30 6.885 64.635 455.393 547.299 558.359

35% Perc = 22.133 11.341 7.466 19.883 44.722 0.796 0.408 0.269 0.715 1.609 35 7.546 69.888 482.539 575.864 586.937

40% Perc = 23.323 12.045 7.762 20.759 46.262 0.839 0.433 0.279 0.747 1.665 40 8.183 74.884 507.912 601.695 613.731

45% Perc = 24.483 12.828 8.075 21.569 47.712 0.881 0.462 0.291 0.776 1.717 45 8.901 79.776 534.460 627.259 638.061

50% Perc = 25.677 13.744 8.367 22.510 49.169 0.924 0.495 0.301 0.810 1.769 50 9.604 84.814 558.738 653.071 663.489

55% Perc = 26.898 14.794 8.684 23.454 50.660 0.968 0.532 0.312 0.844 1.823 55 10.324 91.231 585.597 680.534 691.519

60% Perc = 28.004 15.864 9.035 24.556 51.942 1.008 0.571 0.325 0.884 1.869 60 11.031 97.423 610.320 706.954 717.776

65% Perc = 29.224 16.888 9.386 25.700 53.471 1.052 0.608 0.338 0.925 1.924 65 11.969 103.209 638.397 734.172 745.290

70% Perc = 30.383 17.931 9.828 26.772 55.117 1.093 0.645 0.354 0.963 1.983 70 12.898 110.711 665.876 764.862 775.792

75% Perc = 31.613 19.044 10.211 28.059 56.703 1.138 0.685 0.367 1.010 2.040 75 13.805 119.500 696.014 796.068 806.100

80% Perc = 33.243 20.576 10.685 29.430 58.640 1.196 0.740 0.384 1.059 2.110 80 15.167 129.956 735.137 832.151 842.988

85% Perc = 35.096 22.020 11.170 31.029 61.147 1.263 0.792 0.402 1.116 2.200 85 16.779 143.497 778.814 878.282 889.511

90% Perc = 37.466 23.751 11.852 32.988 64.036 1.348 0.855 0.426 1.187 2.304 90 18.640 163.304 836.741 937.814 946.099

95% Perc = 40.806 26.129 12.775 35.751 68.316 1.468 0.940 0.460 1.286 2.458 95 21.518 189.462 922.834 1032.875 1045.397

Maximum = 59.687 35.189 17.916 46.900 90.206 2.148 1.266 0.645 1.688 3.246 ## 38.574 346.013 1375.006 1518.520 1543.394

Spill Index [bbl]

Frequency

Spills per 103years

Frequency

Spills per 109 bbl Produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4219
Table 4.2.20

Non Arctic Composition of Spill Indicators - Year 2024

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 26.144 54% 12.080 86% 1.432 11% 13.512 50% 39.655 52% P/L 26.144 66% 16.955 76% 5.444 40% 22.399 62% 48.543 64%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 16.955 35% 1.007 7% 4.295 33% 5.302 20% 22.257 29% Platforms 12.080 30% 1.007 5% 1.007 7% 2.013 6% 14.093 19%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 5.444 11% 1.007 7% 7.241 56% 8.248 30% 13.692 18% Wells 1.432 4% 4.295 19% 7.241 53% 11.536 32% 12.968 17%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 22.399 46% 2.013 14% 11.536 89% 13.550 50% 35.949 48% Platforms

and Wells 13.512 34% 5.302 24% 8.248 60% 13.550 38% 27.061 36%

All Spills 48.543 100% 14.093 100% 12.968 100% 27.061 100% 75.604 100% All 39.655 100% 22.257 100% 13.692 100% 35.949 100% 75.604 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.319 54% 0.147 86% 0.017 11% 0.165 50% 0.484 52% P/L 0.319 66% 0.207 76% 0.066 40% 0.273 62% 0.592 64%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.207 35% 0.012 7% 0.052 33% 0.065 20% 0.271 29% Platforms 0.147 30% 0.012 5% 0.012 7% 0.025 6% 0.172 19%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.066 11% 0.012 7% 0.088 56% 0.101 30% 0.167 18% Wells 0.017 4% 0.052 19% 0.088 53% 0.141 32% 0.158 17%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.273 46% 0.025 14% 0.141 89% 0.165 50% 0.438 48% Platformsand Wells 0.165 34% 0.065 24% 0.101 60% 0.165 38% 0.330 36%

All Spills 0.592 100% 0.172 100% 0.158 100% 0.330 100% 0.922 100% All 0.484 100% 0.271 100% 0.167 100% 0.438 100% 0.922 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 10 6% 5 33% 1 0% 6 1% 16 1% P/L 10 62% 88 60% 84 9% 172 15% 182 16%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 88 48% 6 34% 53 6% 59 6% 147 13% Platforms 5 33% 6 4% 6 1% 11 1% 17 1%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 84 46% 6 34% 883 94% 889 93% 973 86% Wells 1 5% 53 36% 883 91% 936 84% 937 82%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 172 94% 11 67% 936 100% 947 99% 1119 99% Platformsand Wells 6 38% 59 40% 889 91% 947 85% 953 84%

All Spills 182 100% 17 100% 937 100% 953 100% 1136 100% All 16 100% 147 100% 973 100% 1119 100% 1136 100%

Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Year 2024

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

Year 2024

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4220
Table 4.2.21

Non Arctic Composition of Spill Indicators - LOF Average

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 17.838 54% 7.430 86% 0.843 11% 8.273 51% 26.111 53% P/L 17.838 68% 11.659 79% 3.751 44% 15.410 66% 33.248 67%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 11.659 35% 0.619 7% 2.530 33% 3.149 19% 14.808 30% Platforms 7.430 28% 0.619 4% 0.619 7% 1.238 5% 8.668 18%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 3.751 11% 0.619 7% 4.222 56% 4.842 30% 8.593 17% Wells 0.843 3% 2.530 17% 4.222 49% 6.752 29% 7.595 15%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 15.410 46% 1.238 14% 6.752 89% 7.991 49% 23.401 47% Platforms

and Wells 8.273 32% 3.149 21% 4.842 56% 7.991 34% 16.264 33%

All Spills 33.248 100% 8.668 100% 7.595 100% 16.264 100% 49.512 100% All 26.111 100% 14.808 100% 8.593 100% 23.401 100% 49.512 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 0.642 54% 0.267 86% 0.030 11% 0.298 51% 0.940 53% P/L 0.642 68% 0.420 79% 0.135 44% 0.554 66% 1.196 67%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 0.420 35% 0.022 7% 0.091 33% 0.113 19% 0.533 30% Platforms 0.267 28% 0.022 4% 0.022 7% 0.045 5% 0.312 18%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 0.135 11% 0.022 7% 0.152 56% 0.174 30% 0.309 17% Wells 0.030 3% 0.091 17% 0.152 49% 0.243 29% 0.273 15%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 0.554 46% 0.045 14% 0.243 89% 0.288 49% 0.842 47% Platformsand Wells 0.298 32% 0.113 21% 0.174 56% 0.288 34% 0.585 33%

All Spills 1.196 100% 0.312 100% 0.273 100% 0.585 100% 1.782 100% All 0.940 100% 0.533 100% 0.309 100% 0.842 100% 1.782 100%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl 7 6% 3 33% 0 0% 4 1% 11 2% P/L 7 65% 61 64% 58 10% 119 18% 125 18%

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl 61 48% 3 34% 31 6% 35 6% 95 14% Platforms 3 31% 3 4% 3 1% 7 1% 10 2%

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl 58 46% 3 34% 512 94% 516 93% 574 84% Wells 0 4% 31 33% 512 89% 544 81% 544 80%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl 119 94% 7 67% 544 100% 551 99% 669 98% Platformsand Wells 4 35% 35 36% 516 90% 551 82% 554 82%

All Spills 125 100% 10 100% 544 100% 554 100% 680 100% All 11 100% 95 100% 574 100% 669 100% 680 100%

LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

Spill Source

Spill Size

S+M

50-999

bbl

Large

1000-9999

bbl

Huge

 =>10000

bbl

Significant

=>1000

bbl

All Spills

 LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

LOF Average

Spill Index [bbl]

LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

Spill Size P/L Platforms Wells Platforms

and Wells

Spill Source

All

LOF Average

Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsT4221
Figure 4.2.1

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4201

Non Arctic Spill Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.2

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4202

Non Arctic Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.3

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4203

Non Arctic Spill Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.4

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4204

Non Arctic Spill Frequency - P/L

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.5

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4205

Non Arctic Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - P/L

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.6

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4206

Non Arctic Spill Index - P/L

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.7

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4207

Non Arctic Spill Frequency - Platforms

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.8

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4208

Non Arctic Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Platforms

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.9

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4209

Non Arctic Spill Index - Platforms

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Large and Huge Spills

=>1000 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.10

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4210

Non Arctic Spill Frequency - Wells

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.11

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4211

Non Arctic Spill Frequency per 109

 bbl Produced - Wells

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.12

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4212

Non Arctic Spill Index - Wells

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl
Figure 4.2.13

Non Arctic Spill Indicators - CDF - Year 2024

 Non Arctic Spill Frequency - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Non Arctic Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Non Arctic Spill Index - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

 Non Arctic Spill Frequency - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Non Arctic Spill Frequency per bbl Produced - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

 Non Arctic Spill Index - CDF Year 2024

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4213
Figure 4.2.14

Non Arctic Spill Frequency - CDF

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4214
Figure 4.2.15

Non Arctic Spill Frequency per bbl produced - CDF 

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8

Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl Produced

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4215
Figure 4.2.16

Non Arctic Spill Index [bbl] - CDF 

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Pipeline

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - Platforms + Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100

0

110

0

120

0

130

0

140

0

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

Non Arctic CDF LOF Average - All

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100

0

110

0

120

0

130

0

140

0

Spill Index [bbl]

CDF %

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4216
Figure 4.2.17

Year 2024 - Non Arctic Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Non Arctic Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

19%

64%

17%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 75.604

Non Arctic Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

19%

64%

17%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 0.922

Non Arctic Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

83%

16% P/L 1%

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1136

Non Arctic Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

53%

29%

18%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 75.604

Non Arctic Year 2024

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

29%

53%

18%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 0.922

Non Arctic Year 2024

 Spill Index [bbl]

1%

86%

13%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1136

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4217
Figure 4.2.18

LOF Average Non arctic Spill Indicators

BY SPILL SOURCE BY SPILL SIZE

Non Arctic LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

53%

30%

17%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 1.782

Non Arctic LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

53%

17%

30%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 49.512

Non Arctic LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^3 years

67%

15%

18%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 49.512

Non Arctic LOF Average

 Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced

67%

15%

18%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 1.782

Non Arctic LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

18%

2%

80%

P/L

Platforms

Wells TOTAL 680

Non Arctic LOF Average

 Spill Index [bbl]

2%

14%

84%

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

Huge Spills

 =>10000 bbl

TOTAL 680

C4_2ChukchiSeaNonArctic.xlsF4218
Chukchi Oil Spill Estimators Final Report – P2507

MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348

October, 2006

APPENDIX 5

Conclusions
Table 5.1

Summary of Life of Field Average Spill Indicators by Spill Source and Size Spill Frequency per 10^3 years Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced Spill Index [bbl] Spill Frequency per 10^3 years Spill Frequency per 10^9 bbl produced Spill Index [bbl]

18.750 0.675 8 26.111 0.940 11

57% 57% 2% 53% 53% 2%

8.735 0.314 58 14.808 0.533 95

26% 26% 13% 30% 30% 14%

5.578 0.201 399 8.593 0.309 574

17% 17% 86% 17% 17% 84%

14.313 0.515 458 23.401 0.842 669

43% 43% 98% 47% 47% 98%

33.063 1.190 465 49.512 1.782 680

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

20.301 0.730 69 33.248 1.196 125

61% 61% 15% 67% 67% 18%

7.362 0.265 9 8.668 0.312 10

22% 22% 2% 18% 18% 2%

5.401 0.194 387 7.595 0.273 544

16% 16% 83% 15% 15% 80%

12.763 0.459 396 16.264 0.585 554

39% 39% 85% 33% 33% 82%

33.063 1.190 465 49.512 1.782 680

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Significant Spills

=>1000 bbl

All Spills

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

All Spills

Platform and Well Spills

Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

Spill Indicators

LOF Average

Chukchi Sea

Pipeline Spills

Platform Spills

Well Spills

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

C5 Conclusions.xlsT501
Figure 5.1

LOF Spill Indicators - By Size

Life of Field Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

Spill Frequency

per 1000 years

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

5.578 8.593

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

8.735 14.808

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

18.750 26.111

Chukchi Sea Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Spill Frequency

 per 10^9 bbl produced

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

0.201 0.309

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

0.314 0.533

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

0.675 0.940

Chukchi Sea Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Spill Index [bbl]

Huge Spills

=>10000 bbl

399 574

Large Spills

1000-9999 bbl

58 95

Small and Medium Spills

50-999 bbl

8 11

Chukchi Sea Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

C5 Conclusions.xlsF501
Figure 5.2

LOF Spill Indicators - By Source

Life of Field Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

Spill Frequency

per 1000 years

Well Spills 5.401 7.595

Platform Spills 7.362 8.668

Pipeline Spills 20.301 33.248

Chukchi Sea Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Spill Frequency

 per 10^9 bbl produced

Well Spills 0.194 0.273

Platform Spills 0.265 0.312

Pipeline Spills 0.730 1.196

Chukchi Sea Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

Life of Field Average

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Spill Index [bbl]

Well Spills 387 544

Platform Spills 9 10

Pipeline Spills 69 125

Chukchi Sea Chukchi Sea - Non Arctic

C5 Conclusions.xlsF502
Figure 5.3

C5 Conclusions.xlsF503

Chukchi Sea Spill Frequency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 1000 years

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Figure 5.4

C5 Conclusions.xlsF504

Chukchi Sea Spill Frequency per 109 bbl Produced

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Frequency per 10

9 bbl Produced

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
Figure 5.5

C5 Conclusions.xlsF505

Chukchi Sea Spill Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

Spill Index [bbl]

Non Arctic Spills

Arctic Spills
The Department of the Interior Mission

As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our 

nationally owned public lands and natural resources. This includes fostering sound use of our land and water 

resources; protecting our fish, wildlife, and biological diversity; preserving the environmental and cultural values of 

our national parks and historical places;and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The 

Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to ensure that their development is in the best 

interests of all our people by encouraging stewardship and citizen participation in their care. The Department also 

has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in island territories 

under U.S. administration.

The Minerals Management Service Mission

As a bureau of the Department of the Interior, the Minerals Management Service's (MMS) primary responsibilities 

are to manage the mineral resources located on the Nation's Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), collect revenue from 

the Federal OCS and onshore Federal and Indian lands, and distribute those revenues.

Moreover, in working to meet its responsibilities, the Offshore Minerals Management Program administers the 

OCS competitive leasing program and oversees the safe and environmentally sound exploration and production of 

our Nation's offshore natural gas, oil and other mineral resources. The MMS Royalty Management Program

meets its responsibilities by ensuring the efficient, timely and accurate collection and disbursement of revenue from 

mineral leasing and production due to Indian tribes and allottees, States and the U.S. Treasury.

The MMS strives to fulfill its responsibilities through the general guiding principles of: (1) being responsive to the 

public's concerns and interests by maintaining a dialogue with all potentially affected parties and (2) carrying out its 

programs with an emphasis on working to enhance the quality of life for all Americans by lending MMS assistance 

and expertise to economic development and environmental protection.