### APPENDIX 8-E. MONTHLY ENERGY PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS FOR WATER HEATER ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8-E.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 8-E-1 8-E.2 MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS....................................................................................................... 8-E-1 8-E.3 MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL LPG PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS ................. 8-E-4 8-E.4 MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS....................................................................................................... 8-E-7 8-E.5 MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL OIL PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS ................ 8-E-10

LIST OF TABLES Table 8-E.2.1 Average Residential Natural Gas Prices for Census Division 1 ($/tcf)..... 8-E-2 Table 8-E.2.2 Monthly Natural Gas Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for Census Division 1................................................................................................... 8-E-3 Table 8-E.2.3 Monthly Natural Gas Monthly Energy Price Factors ................................ 8-E-4 Table 8-E.2.4 Monthly Natural Gas Prices for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007$/MMBtu)......................................................................................... 8-E-4 Table 8-E.3.1 Average Residential LPG Prices for the U.S. (cents/gallon) ..................... 8-E-5 Table 8-E.3.2 Monthly LPG Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for the U.S.......................... 8-E-6 Table 8-E.3.3 Monthly LPG for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007$/MMBtu).... 8-E-7 Table 8-E.4.1 Average Residential Electricity Prices for Census Division 1 (cents / kWh) .......................................................................................................... 8-E-8 Table 8-E.4.2 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for 1990-2006 for Census Division 1 .. 8-E-8 Table 8-E.4.3 Monthly Electricity Price Factors .............................................................. 8-E-9 Table 8-E.4.4 Monthly Electricity Prices for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007¢/kWh)............................................................................................ 8-E-10 Table 8-E.5.1 Average Residential Oil Prices for Census Division 1 (cents / gallon) ... 8-E-11 Table 8-E.5.2 Monthly Oil Prices Factors for 1983 – 2006 for Census Division 1 ....... 8-E-12 Table 8-E.5.3 Monthly Oil Energy Price Factors ........................................................... 8-E-13 Table 8-E.5.4 Monthly Oil Prices for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007$/MMBtu)....................................................................................... 8-E-14

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 8-E.1.1 Monthly Energy Price Factor Calculation Process .................................... 8-E-1 Figure 8-E.2.1 Monthly Natural Gas Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for Census Division 1................................................................................................... 8-E-3 Figure 8-E.3.1 Monthly LPG Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for the U.S.......................... 8-E-6 Figure 8-E.4.1 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for 1990-2006 for Census Division 1 .. 8-E-9 Figure 8-E.5.1 Monthly Oil Prices Factors for 1983 – 2006 for Census Division 1 ....... 8-E-13

8-E-i

### APPENDIX 8-E. MONTHLY ENERGY PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS FOR WATER HEATER ANALYSIS

8-E.1	 INTRODUCTION For water heaters, DOE developed monthly energy price factors and used monthly energy consumption data for the LCC and PBP calculations. DOE developed monthly energy price factors to capture robust seasonal trends in monthly energy prices. Figure 8-E.1.1 depicts the monthly energy price factor calculation process.

EIA Energy Price Data Average Energy Price by Month

and Division U.S. Census Population Data

Monthly Energy Price Projections for each Division New 2006 Base

Year Monthly Energy Prices Average Price Factors Monthly Price Factors

AEO 2008


### Figure 8-E.1.1 Monthly Energy Price Factor Calculation Process
8-E.2	 MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL NATURAL GAS PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS DOE collected historical natural gas prices from 1990 to 2006 from EIA’s Natural Gas 1 

### Navigator. The Natural Gas Navigator includes monthly natural gas prices for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers by State. DOE aggregated the data by thirteen geographic regions: the nine US Census Divisions and four large states: New England, Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, Pacific, New York, California, Texas, and Florida.
For each geographic region, DOE determined average natural gas prices from 1990 to 2006 by weighting the average residential natural gas prices for each State by the US Census 2 

### Bureau’s 2006 population estimates. Table 8-E.2.1 shows the results for Census Division 1 (CD 1).

8-E-1

### Table 8-E.2.1 Average Residential Natural Gas Prices for Census Division 1 ($/tcf)

Jan Feb MarchApr May JuneJuly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Avg 1990 7.29 7.83 7.88 8.09 7.48 7.80 8.49 8.80 8.59 7.81 8.05 7.85 7.99 1991 7.73 7.74 7.84 8.15 7.42 8.11 8.74 8.85 8.67 7.58 8.27 8.06 8.10 1992 7.99 7.98 7.94 8.12 7.42 8.11 8.60 8.90 8.60 7.41 8.17 7.99 8.10 1993 8.08 8.02 8.14 8.27 7.88 8.51 9.05 9.35 9.20 8.03 8.96 8.97 8.54 1994 8.66 8.63 8.89 9.14 8.57 9.16 10.24 10.62 10.04 8.83 9.63 9.02 9.29 1995 8.85 8.75 8.67 8.82 7.88 8.73 9.70 10.03 9.57 8.81 9.08 8.49 8.95 1996 8.56 8.74 8.78 8.97 7.29 8.48 9.43 9.79 9.54 8.36 9.34 9.36 8.89 1997 9.26 9.57 9.32 9.32 8.31 8.94 10.19 10.50 10.30 8.88 9.49 9.47 9.46 1998 9.07 9.13 9.21 9.11 9.30 9.60 10.53 11.00 10.56 9.51 9.42 9.48 9.66 1999 10.40 10.50 8.67 8.75 8.52 9.19 9.39 9.77 9.14 8.99 9.31 8.97 9.30 2000 9.16 9.15 9.57 9.76 9.70 10.47 12.02 12.52 12.45 11.34 11.49 11.46 10.76 2001 11.37 12.29 12.67 13.05 13.53 14.12 15.26 15.64 14.56 12.47 12.19 11.05 13.18 2002 10.30 10.03 10.19 10.40 10.25 10.69 12.69 12.91 12.94 11.04 10.56 11.06 11.09 2003 10.80 11.03 12.11 13.22 13.92 13.83 15.14 15.92 15.24 13.37 12.87 12.60 13.34 2004 12.79 13.57 13.79 14.24 14.61 14.76 14.87 15.43 16.89 15.13 14.84 14.82 14.65 2005 14.11 14.02 13.35 14.47 15.02 15.16 17.10 17.96 19.21 19.35 19.11 18.36 16.43 2006 18.51 17.77 16.71 17.09 17.02 17.94 19.18 19.67 18.88 16.52 16.26 16.58 17.68 

### DOE then calculated monthly energy price factors for each year by dividing the monthly prices by the annual average price for each year. Table 8-E.2.2 and Figure 8-E.2.1 show the calculated results for Census Division 1.

8-E-2

### Table 8-E.2.2 Monthly Natural Gas Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for Census Division 1 Jan Feb MarchApr May JuneJulyAug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1990 0.91 0.98 0.99 1.01 0.94 0.98 1.06 1.10 1.07 0.98 1.01 0.98 1991 0.95 0.96 0.97 1.01 0.92 1.00 1.08 1.09 1.07 0.94 1.02 1.00 1992 0.99 0.98 0.98 1.00 0.92 1.00 1.06 1.10 1.06 0.91 1.01 0.99 1993 0.95 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.92 1.00 1.06 1.10 1.08 0.94 1.05 1.05 1994 0.93 0.93 0.96 0.98 0.92 0.99 1.10 1.14 1.08 0.95 1.04 0.97 1995 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.99 0.88 0.98 1.08 1.12 1.07 0.99 1.01 0.95 1996 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 0.82 0.95 1.06 1.10 1.07 0.94 1.05 1.05 1997 0.98 1.01 0.98 0.99 0.88 0.94 1.08 1.11 1.09 0.94 1.00 1.00 1998 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.99 1.09 1.14 1.09 0.98 0.97 0.98 1999 1.12 1.13 0.93 0.94 0.92 0.99 1.01 1.05 0.98 0.97 1.00 0.96 2000 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.91 0.90 0.97 1.12 1.16 1.16 1.05 1.07 1.07 2001 0.86 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.16 1.19 1.10 0.95 0.92 0.84 2002 0.93 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.92 0.96 1.14 1.16 1.17 1.00 0.95 1.00 2003 0.81 0.83 0.91 0.99 1.04 1.04 1.14 1.19 1.14 1.00 0.97 0.95 2004 0.87 0.93 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.15 1.03 1.01 1.01 2005 0.86 0.85 0.81 0.88 0.91 0.92 1.04 1.09 1.17 1.18 1.16 1.12 2006 1.05 1.01 0.95 0.97 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.11 1.07 0.93 0.92 0.94 Average 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.97 0.93 0.99 1.08 1.12 1.10 0.98 1.01 0.99

0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30

Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov DecNatural Gas Price Factors

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Avg



### Figure 8-E.2.1	 Monthly Natural Gas Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for Census Division 1 DOE then averaged the monthly energy price factors for 1990 to 2006 to develop an average energy price factor for each month. DOE performed the same calculations for each geographic region to develop the average monthly energy price factors shown in Table 8-E.2.3.

8-E-3

### Table 8-E.2.3 Monthly Natural Gas Monthly Energy Price Factors CDJan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec

10.940.95 0.940.97 0.930.99 1.08 1.12 1.100.98 1.010.99 20.850.86 0.870.90 0.99 1.11 1.21 1.22 1.18 1.010.920.89 30.860.86 0.860.91 1.00 1.14 1.21 1.23 1.160.970.910.89 40.830.81 0.810.86 0.97 1.13 1.23 1.29 1.231.040.910.87 50.810.82 0.820.87 1.01 1.15 1.23 1.25 1.211.050.890.86 60.820.83 0.840.90 1.01 1.121.17 1.20 1.171.090.950.89 70.800.79 0.800.86 1.03 1.12 1.18 1.22 1.191.140.990.87 80.820.83 0.850.90 1.00 1.15 1.18 1.23 1.19 1.070.940.86 90.910.92 0.930.94 0.98 1.01 1.09 1.13 1.10 1.030.980.96 100.860.85 0.850.88 0.97 1.10 1.17 1.22 1.20 1.060.960.91 11 1.010.99 0.960.94 0.98 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.030.99 1.00 120.800.81 0.810.91 1.04 1.15 1.18 1.21 1.21 1.120.930.84 130.810.83 0.890.94 1.03 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.040.91 US0.860.86 0.870.91 1.00 1.111.16 1.19 1.151.040.940.90 

### DOE then applied the monthly energy price factors to the annual Natural Gas data presented in Chapter 8 to develop monthly energy prices for 2006 (Table 8-E.2.4).
Table 8-E.2.4	 Monthly Natural Gas Prices for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007$/MMBtu)
CD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Average 1 16.55 16.7416.65 17.1016.43 17.4419.07 19.7319.33 17.3017.82 17.48 17.63 2 14.25 14.3914.58 15.1416.62 18.6420.2620.4819.72 16.9715.36 14.94 16.78 3 11.12 11.1511.14 11.7613.00 14.6915.66 15.9715.00 12.5211.74 11.49 12.94 4 11.28 11.1111.10 11.6713.24 15.4816.81 17.5716.82 14.2212.47 11.90 13.64 5 14.97 15.0315.12 15.9818.5521.2122.6822.9622.31 19.3516.4215.87 18.37 6 13.58 13.7213.87 14.9116.74 18.5319.36 19.7719.28 17.9615.65 14.74 16.51 7 12.42 12.2912.40 13.3515.99 17.3618.19 18.8318.49 17.6015.30 13.52 15.48 8 11.50 11.7011.99 12.6714.0216.1716.60 17.3416.70 15.0113.25 12.10 14.09 9 14.73 14.9414.95 15.2615.76 16.3017.67 18.3117.83 16.7115.86 15.49 16.15 10 13.70 13.4813.48 13.9915.46 17.4718.63 19.4719.08 16.8615.32 14.46 15.95 11 11.54 11.3611.06 10.8011.3011.9211.8311.6911.63 11.7911.40 11.50 11.49 12 11.31 11.4611.54 12.8514.78 16.3316.74 17.1617.20 15.8713.2211.92 14.20 13 17.64 18.1019.3920.4722.5023.5424.1424.7024.4924.3822.65 19.97 21.83 US 12.10 12.1412.24 12.8014.1215.6416.4716.7716.31 14.7513.3512.70 14.12



### 8-E.3 

## MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL LPG PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS DOE collected historical LPG prices from 1990 to 2006 from EIA’s 2006 State Energy 3 

### Consumption, Price, and Expenditures Estimates (SEDS). SEDS includes average U.S. LPG prices from 1990 for the months of October, November, December, January, February, and March. Table 8-E.3.1 shows the U.S. average residential LPG prices from 1990 to 2006. 8-E-4

### Table 8-E.3.1 Average Residential LPG Prices for the U.S. (cents/gallon)

Months Jan Feb Mar AprMayJun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Average 1990 106 105 101.9 104.5 1991 100.2 93.9 88.4 88 91 91.9 92.2 1992 89.2 88 86.7 86 87 89.5 87.7 1993 97.9 94.6 95.6 93 87 88 88.1 92.0 1994 88.7 90.8 90.2 85 86 86.7 87.8 1995 88 89.2 89.8 89 89 91.4 89.4 1996 97.3 101.3 101.8 105 112 130.9 108.0 1997 128.7 117.4 109.1 96 97 97.8 107.6 1998 98.1 97.4 96.1 87 88 87.9 92.4 1999 88.7 89.1 89 96 98 100.2 93.5 2000 108 122 120.9 128 129 139.9 124.7 2001 166.3 155.6 143.2 114 113 112 134.0 2002 113.4 112.9 112.3 113 116 121.1 114.8 2003 130.7 148 165.2 131 133 138.4 141.0 2004 149.6 153.6 150.9 162 169 171.7 159.4 2005 172.8 172 171.7 194 194 197.4 183.8 2006 201 200.1 198.7 194 195 197.9 197.7 

### DOE calculated monthly energy prices factors for each year by dividing the monthly prices by the annual average price for each year. For the months when no data were available, DOE assigned a price factor of 1.00. Table 8-E.3.2 and Figure 8-E.3.1 show the calculated results for the U.S.

8-E-5

### Table 8-E.3.2 Monthly LPG Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for the U.S. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1990 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.01 0.98 1991 1.09 1.02 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.99 1.00 1992 1.02 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.99 1.02 1993 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.95 0.96 1994 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.98 0.99 1995 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02 1996 0.90 0.94 0.94 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.97 1.04 1.21 1997 1.20 1.09 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.89 0.90 0.91 1998 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.94 0.95 0.95 1999 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.07 2000 0.87 0.98 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.03 1.12 2001 1.24 1.16 1.07 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.85 0.84 0.84 2002 0.99 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.05 2003 0.93 1.05 1.17 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.93 0.94 0.98 2004 0.94 0.96 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.06 1.08 2005 0.94 0.94 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.06 1.06 1.07 2006 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.98 1.00 Average 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.99 1.01

0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUS LPG Price Factors 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average



### Figure 8-E.3.1 Monthly LPG Price Factors for 1990 – 2006 for the U.S. DOE then averaged the yearly factors to determine U.S. average energy price factors for each month. The EIA data were collected without taxes, so DOE determined the average tax rate

8-E-64 

### for the four Census Regions (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West) and applied it to the annual average data. To present the LPG price data for the same year as the other fuels (2006), DOE scaled the 2005 prices using data inAEO2008(see section 8.5.5) to determine the average LPG prices shown in Table 8-E.3.3. Table 8-E.3.3 Monthly LPG for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007$/MMBtu)

CD Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 33.98 34.04 33.77 33.85 33.89 33.91 33.92 33.91 33.92 33.97 34.03 34.06 2 32.52 32.58 32.33 32.40 32.44 32.46 32.47 32.47 32.47 32.52 32.58 32.62 3 25.42 25.47 25.26 25.30 25.31 25.28 25.29 25.28 25.29 25.39 25.49 25.53 4 22.47 22.52 22.34 22.37 22.38 22.35 22.36 22.35 22.36 22.46 22.56 22.60 5 30.63 30.69 30.44 30.49 30.50 30.49 30.47 30.45 30.48 30.59 30.70 30.75 6 28.93 29.00 28.76 28.81 28.82 28.81 28.79 28.76 28.80 28.91 29.02 29.07 7 29.02 29.08 28.84 28.89 28.90 28.89 28.87 28.84 28.88 28.99 29.10 29.15 8 28.44 28.48 28.23 28.24 28.24 28.24 28.17 28.15 28.22 28.37 28.47 28.51 9 31.90 31.95 31.66 31.68 31.68 31.68 31.61 31.59 31.66 31.81 31.91 31.95 10 31.39 31.44 31.20 31.27 31.31 31.33 31.34 31.34 31.34 31.39 31.45 31.49 11 32.97 33.02 32.73 32.75 32.75 32.75 32.68 32.66 32.73 32.88 32.98 33.02 12 30.65 30.72 30.47 30.52 30.53 30.52 30.50 30.47 30.51 30.62 30.73 30.78 13 35.42 35.49 35.20 35.26 35.27 35.26 35.24 35.21 35.24 35.36 35.46 35.52 US 28.15 28.19 27.97 28.02 28.05 28.05 28.00 27.99 28.02 28.12 28.21 28.25



### 8-E.4 

## MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS

5 

### DOE collected historical electricity prices from 1990 to 2006 from EIA’s Form 826. These data are published annually and include annual electricity sales, revenues from electricity sales, and average price for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors by State. DOE aggregated the data by thirteen geographic regions: the nine US Census Divisions and four large states: New England, Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, Pacific, New York, California, Texas, and Florida. For each geographic region, DOE determined average electricity prices from 1990 to 2006 by weighting the average residential electricity prices for each State by the US Census 2 

### Bureau’s 2006 population estimates. Table 8-E.4.1 shows the results for Census Division 1.

8-E-7

### Table 8-E.4.1 Average Residential Electricity Prices for Census Division 1 (cents / kWh)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Avg 1990 9.11 9.69 9.35 9.38 9.57 9.96 9.94 9.92 10.13 10.45 10.13 10.05 9.81 199110.15 10.20 9.93 10.01 10.34 10.48 10.59 10.71 10.64 10.80 10.56 10.94 10.45 199210.64 10.59 10.43 10.36 10.85 10.80 11.12 11.04 11.09 11.17 11.02 11.39 10.88 199310.94 10.91 10.73 11.01 11.33 11.64 11.32 11.43 11.45 11.34 11.19 11.83 11.26 199411.02 10.96 10.93 11.15 11.25 11.83 11.58 11.55 11.80 11.79 11.73 11.95 11.46 199511.26 11.51 11.29 11.49 11.99 11.75 12.17 11.78 11.95 12.00 11.46 12.26 11.74 199611.15 11.64 11.94 11.49 11.61 12.42 11.98 12.22 11.94 11.63 11.39 12.36 11.82 199711.77 11.70 12.09 11.50 12.01 12.68 12.10 12.25 12.03 12.34 11.99 12.28 12.06 199811.59 11.65 11.61 11.54 11.64 11.68 11.53 11.66 11.23 11.40 11.34 11.47 11.53 199910.87 11.32 11.16 11.40 11.35 11.67 11.19 11.20 11.07 11.30 11.17 10.20 11.16 200011.12 10.79 10.82 11.36 11.24 11.49 11.38 11.13 11.32 11.32 11.27 11.31 11.21 200111.86 11.78 11.87 12.24 12.24 12.24 12.58 12.18 12.43 12.49 12.13 11.73 12.15 200211.28 11.02 11.50 11.51 11.19 11.32 11.20 11.02 11.17 11.44 11.26 11.01 11.24 200310.76 11.07 11.16 11.13 11.90 12.18 11.93 12.11 12.40 12.13 11.99 11.82 11.72 200411.46 11.90 11.82 11.88 11.99 12.04 12.23 12.24 11.96 11.96 11.86 11.76 11.93 200512.72 13.17 13.00 13.23 13.36 13.40 13.30 13.45 14.07 13.54 14.14 14.02 13.45 200615.61 16.27 16.03 16.19 16.10 15.88 15.58 16.16 16.41 15.97 15.53 16.21 16.00 

### DOE then calculated monthly energy prices factors by dividing the monthly prices by the annual average for each year. Table 8-E.4.2 and Figure 8-E.4.1 show the calculated results for Census Division 1.
Table 8-E.4.2 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for 1990-2006 for Census Division 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1990 0.93 0.99 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.07 1.03 1.02 1991 0.97 0.98 0.95 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.01 1.05 1992 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 1.00 0.99 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.01 1.05 1993 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.05 1994 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.04 1995 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.02 1.02 0.98 1.04 1996 0.94 0.99 1.01 0.97 0.98 1.05 1.01 1.03 1.01 0.98 0.96 1.05 1997 0.98 0.97 1.00 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.99 1.02 1998 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.99 1999 0.97 1.01 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.05 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.91 2000 0.99 0.96 0.97 1.01 1.00 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 2001 0.98 0.97 0.98 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.04 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.00 0.97 2002 1.00 0.98 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.99 1.02 1.00 0.98 2003 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.02 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.01 2004 0.96 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 2005 0.95 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.05 1.01 1.05 1.04 2006 0.98 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.01 0.99 0.97 1.01 1.03 1.00 0.97 1.01 Average 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.01

8-E-80.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov DecElectricity Price Factors

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average



### Figure 8-E.4.1	 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for 1990-2006 for Census Division 1 DOE then averaged the monthly energy prices factors for 1990 to 2006 to develop an average energy price factor for each month. DOE performed the same calculations for each geographic region to develop the average monthly energy price factors shown in Table 8-E.4.3.
Table 8-E.4.3	 Monthly Electricity Price Factors

CDJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.01 2 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.07 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.00 0.97 0.96 3 0.91 0.94 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 0.98 0.94 4 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.97 1.04 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.06 0.99 0.96 0.92 5 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.03 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.05 1.02 0.98 0.93 6 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.01 0.97 7 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.03 0.98 0.94 8 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 0.98 0.97 9 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 10 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.02 1.00 0.98 11 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.04 0.99 0.97 1.00 1.02 12 0.90 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 0.98 0.95 13 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 US 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99 0.97 

### DOE then applied the monthly energy price factors to the annual Electricity data presented in Chapter 8 to develop monthly energy prices for 2006 (Table 8-E.4.4).

8-E-91 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 

### Table 8-E.4.4 Monthly Electricity Prices for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007¢/kWh) CD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.7 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.5 11.8 11.5 11.3

8.7 9.0 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.3 8.9 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.9 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.5 8.1 7.8 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.6 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.4 10 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.6 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.3 18.0 17.7 11 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.4 14.7 14.4 14.8 15.0 12 11.8 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 12.9 12.5 13 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.9 11.7 US 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.9


### 8-E.5 MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL OIL PRICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS

6 

### DOE collected historical oil prices from 1983 to 2006 from EIA’s Petroleum Navigator. The Petroleum Navigator includes monthly oil prices for residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation consumers by Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD). The first four PADD follow the US Census Divisions. However, Arizona is not included in PADD for the Pacific Region and New Mexico is excluded altogether. In addition, data were not provided for the East South Central region, West South Central region, Florida, Texas, and California so national averages were used for these regions. The prices were aggregated by eight geographic regions: New England, Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, Mountain, Pacific, and New York.
For each geographic region, DOE determined average oil prices from 1983 to 2006 by weighting the average residential oil prices for each PADD by the US Census Bureau’s 2006 2 

### population estimates. Table 8-E.5.1 shows the results for Census Division 1.

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### Table 8-E.5.1 Average Residential Oil Prices for Census Division 1 (cents / gallon)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Average 1983 116.7112.9 105.6104.2 106 105.3 104.8 105 105.1104.8104.8106.3 106.8 1984 114.4119.2 112.1111.3 110.9109.5 106.6103.9 104.6105.9 106.3105.6 109.2 1985 105.9 106 106.1 106 104 100.7 98 96.4 99.9 104.6110.3111.5 104.1 1986 107 94 88.3 80.3 76.6 71.9 65.5 64.7 66.1 66.6 68 71.7 76.7 1987 79 79.6 78.9 78.7 79.3 78 78.4 77.8 78.7 80.3 82.7 84.1 79.6 1988 85.5 84.6 83.4 83.3 82.6 80.2 78 76.8 78.3 76.7 77.8 82.5 80.8 1989 87 87 88.5 87.9 86.5 83.2 81.6 80.9 82.6 87.3 89.8 112.7 87.9 1990 118.5 97.7 95.9 93.3 90.6 86 84.6 101.3 116.4125.8 122.7119.5 104.4 1991 117.7 111 102.5 95.4 90.3 87.5 86.9 87.4 89.9 94 96.9 94.7 96.2 1992 92.7 92.2 90.9 90.3 90.2 90 89.8 88.6 89.3 92.6 92.9 92.4 91.0 1993 92.4 92.7 93.5 90.4 89.3 86.9 83.7 82.2 82.5 85.6 85.5 84.3 87.4 1994 87.7 91.6 88.9 85.6 83.1 82.4 81.2 79 80.1 81.8 81.8 83.5 83.9 1995 84.1 84.4 83 82.1 83.8 81.8 79.3 79.3 79.7 81.1 83.6 88.9 82.6 1996 92.9 94.4 98.5 100.6 96 88.7 86.4 86.8 93.7 102.3 103.7 106 95.8 1997 106.6103.7 98.2 96.1 93.1 89.6 86.3 85.5 87 89.8 91.4 91.1 93.2 1998 89.6 88.5 86.9 84.4 82.4 78.7 75.7 73.3 73.9 75.5 75.7 75 80.0 1999 76.3 75.5 76.3 77.7 77 75.3 77.2 80.1 86.4 91 96 100.4 82.4 2000 123.3139.4 118.8 113 114.7114.5 114.6118.5 131.2133.7 136.6137.4 124.6 2001134.1130.6 127.1125.3 123.5120.8 115.4114.2 117.4114.8 111 108.8 120.3 2002 109.3108.5 110.7112.1 111.6109.8108.3109.1 111.5114.4 116.5 122 112.0 2003 131.5148.7 151.3133.5 128.4125.4122.4 123 122.8124.1 127.9132.4 131.0 2004 140.6 142 140.2139.4 141.7142.5 147.2153.1 161.9179.4 180.1178.2 153.9 2005 178.7182.1 190.5194.3 190.6198.8208.1220.5236.7238.2228.5228.2 207.9 2006230.5228.3231.9239.6244.4245.8245.6247.9238.6231.1 233 236.4 237.8 

### DOE then calculated monthly energy price factors by dividing the monthly prices by the annual average price for each year. Table 8-E.5.2 and Figure 8-E.5.1 show the calculated results for Census Division 1.

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### Table 8-E.5.2 Monthly Oil Prices Factors for 1983 – 2006 for Census Division 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1983 1.09 1.06 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1984 1.05 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 1985 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.00 0.97 0.94 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.06 1.07 1986 1.39 1.23 1.15 1.05 1.00 0.94 0.85 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.93 1987 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.06 1988 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.02 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.97 0.95 0.96 1.02 1989 0.99 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.99 1.02 1.28 1990 1.14 0.94 0.92 0.89 0.87 0.82 0.81 0.97 1.12 1.21 1.18 1.15 1991 1.22 1.15 1.07 0.99 0.94 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.98 1.01 0.98 1992 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.98 1.02 1.02 1.02 1993 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.03 1.02 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.94 0.98 0.98 0.96 1994 1.05 1.09 1.06 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.94 0.95 0.98 0.98 1.00 1995 1.02 1.02 1.00 0.99 1.01 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.08 1996 0.97 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.00 0.93 0.90 0.91 0.98 1.07 1.08 1.11 1997 1.14 1.11 1.05 1.03 1.00 0.96 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.96 0.98 0.98 1998 1.12 1.11 1.09 1.06 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.94 1999 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.94 0.97 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.22 2000 0.99 1.12 0.95 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.95 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.10 2001 1.12 1.09 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.00 0.96 0.95 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.90 2002 0.98 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.09 2003 1.00 1.14 1.16 1.02 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 2004 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.17 1.17 1.16 2005 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.06 1.14 1.15 1.10 1.10 2006 0.97 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.00 0.97 0.98 0.99 Average 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.05

8-E-120.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecOil Price Factors

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average



### Figure 8-E.5.1	 Monthly Oil Prices Factors for 1983 – 2006 for Census Division 1 DOE then averaged the monthly energy price factors for 1983 to 2006 to develop an average energy price factor for each month. DOE performed the same calculations for each geographic region to develop the average monthly energy price factors shown in Table 8-E.5.3.
Table 8-E.5.3	 Monthly Oil Energy Price Factors

CD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.05 2 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.93 0.97 1.01 1.03 1.05 3 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 4 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.03 5 1.05 1.04 1.02 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.05 6* 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 7* 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05

8 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.03 9 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.97 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.03 10 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.04 11* 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 12* 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 13* 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 US 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 *National Average

8-E-136 

### The EIA data were collected and the energy price factors were determined without taxes. DOE applied the energy price factors to historical oil prices from EIA’s Petroleum Navigator. 1 

### DOE then added monthly tax data from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook to determine the average oil prices shown in Table 8-E.5.4. Table 8-E.5.4 Monthly Oil Prices for 2006 Using Average Price Factors (2007$/MMBtu)

CDJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 19.25 19.15 18.79 18.4518.22 17.8417.59 17.6918.26 18.8119.12 19.57 2 19.49 19.47 19.09 18.6818.28 17.7817.27 17.3918.13 18.8219.2819.77 3 18.66 18.50 18.37 18.3118.1017.6917.74 18.1718.83 19.3519.51 19.49 4 18.27 18.12 18.09 18.2118.1618.2017.73 18.1018.78 19.0119.5619.13 5 18.45 18.34 18.00 17.5817.20 16.8816.71 16.9717.53 18.0918.37 18.76 6* 19.31 19.28 18.97 18.6518.34 17.9317.55 17.6718.32 18.9419.32 19.69 7* 19.31 19.28 18.97 18.6518.34 17.9317.55 17.6718.32 18.9419.3219.69

8 18.15 18.11 18.11 18.3018.1117.8617.70 18.2619.11 19.5319.87 19.28 9 19.15 19.22 19.44 19.4419.2518.7718.44 18.6919.4820.0220.1819.93 10 19.60 19.60 19.23 18.9018.73 18.4618.09 17.9018.45 19.1019.51 19.83 11* 19.31 19.28 18.97 18.6518.34 17.9317.55 17.6718.32 18.9419.32 19.69 12* 19.31 19.28 18.97 18.6518.34 17.9317.5517.6718.32 18.9419.32 19.69 13* 19.31 19.28 18.97 18.6518.34 17.9317.55 17.6718.32 18.9419.32 19.69 US 19.31 19.28 18.97 18.6518.34 17.9317.55 17.6718.3218.9419.3219.69 *National Average

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### REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration,Short-Term Energy Outlook. 2006. http://eia.doe.gov/steo

2. U. S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of the Census,Population Estimates, 2006. U.S. Census. Washington, DC. <http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php>

3. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration,2005 State Energy Consumption, Price, and Expenditure Estimates (SEDS), 2005. Washington, DC. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html>

4. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration,Short-Term Energy Outlook. 2007.http://eia.doe.gov/steo

5. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration,Form EIA-826 Database Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenue Data,2006. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia826.html>
6. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration,Petroleum Navigator, February, 2006. Washington, DC. <http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_dist_dcu_nus_a.html>

8-E-15