NOAA Ocean 

Acidification 

Steering Committee

April 2010

NOAA Ocean and 

Great Lakes 

Acidification

Research Plan
NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification

Research Plan

NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Committee:

Richard A. Feely (OAR/PMEL)

Rik Wanninkhof (OAR/AOML)

John Stein (NMFS/NWFSC)

Michael F. Sigler (NMFS/AFSC)

Elizabeth Jewett (NOS/CSCOR)

Felipe Arzayus (OAR/OOER)

Dwight K. Gledhill (OAR/AOML)

Editor: Adrienne J. Sutton (OAR/PMEL)

Front cover photo: pteropod, Limacina helicina

Credit: Russ Hopcroft (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

Front cover graphic: see Figure 1.1 on page 2

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the 70 members of the Ocean Acidification Research Planning Team

(see final page for a full list of contributors) for the considerable amount of thoughtful

work and dedication that went into developing this plan for NOAA’s ocean acidification

research and monitoring efforts and the NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Committee for identifying the need for this important planning exercise. Special thanks

to Ryan Layne Whitney of NOAA/PMEL for his excellent final editing and formatting

skills.

April 2010

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

U N I T E D S T A T E S O F A M E R I C A UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Gary Locke

Secretary
NOTICE from NOAA

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by NOAA/OAR. Use of

information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the tests of such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not authorized. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations

expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

For internal use only.

This report should be cited as:

NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Committee (2010): NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research

Plan, NOAA Special Report, 143 pp.

Contribution No. 3500 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Also available from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

(http://www.ntis.gov)

ii
Contents

Executive Summary ix

1 Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program—Richard A. Feely, Chris Sabine,

Rik Wanninkhof, Simone R. Alin, Elizabeth Jewett, Dwight K. Gledhill, John Dunne, Paul McElhany,

Adrienne J. Sutton, D. Shallin Busch, Felipe Arzayus, Bill Sunda, Jessica Geubtner, Jon Hare, Oliver

Vetter, and Steve Hankin 1

1.0 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.0.1 Biological consequences of ocean acidification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.0.2 The ocean’s biological pump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

1.0.3 Evidence of ocean acidification from data and models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

1.0.4 Goals and scientific rationale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

1.1 Developing an Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

1.1.1 Measurement requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

1.1.2 Strategy for an observational network for ocean acidification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

1.2 Organism response to ocean acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

1.2.1 Marine phototrophs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

1.2.2 Coral reef ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

1.2.3 Shellfish and deep-sea corals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

1.2.4 Fish . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

1.2.5 Other species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

1.2.6 Protected species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

1.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

1.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

1.4.1 Bio-economic models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

1.4.2 Mitigation and adaptation strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

1.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

1.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

1.6.1 Education and outreach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

1.6.2 Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

1.7 Enabling Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

1.7.1 Program office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

1.7.2 Technology development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

1.7.3 Best practices methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

1.7.4 Centers of expertise for data quality assurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

1.7.5 Data management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

1.7.6 Stakeholder interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

1.8 Interagency and International Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

1.8.1 Interagency cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

1.8.2 International cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

1.9 Expected Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

2 NOAA Alaska Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Michael F. Sigler, Robert J. Foy, Mark Carls,

Michael Dalton, Lisa B. Eisner, Kris Holderied, Thomas P. Hurst, Joseph F. Morado, Phyllis Stabeno,

and Robert P. Stone 31

2.0 Ocean Acidification in the Alaska Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

iii
2.1 Developing an Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

2.1.1 Coastal laboratories and oceanographic moorings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

2.1.2 CO2 cruises: Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, Arctic Ocean, southeast Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

2.2 Organism Response to Ocean Acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

2.2.1 Shellfish . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

2.2.2 Calcareous plankton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

2.2.3 Deep-sea corals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

2.2.4 Fish . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

2.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2.3.1 Ecosystem sensitivity to ocean acidification and valuation of indirect effects . . . . . . . . . 36

2.3.2 Climate change/ocean acidification scenario development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

2.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

2.7 Collaborators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

3 West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Paul McElhany, Simone R. Alin, D. Shallin

Busch, Robert Pavia, Kelley Higgason, Steve Katz, Jonathan Phinney, Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A.

Feely, John Stein, Mary Sue Brancato, Ed Bowlby, Jan Roletto, and Lisa Etherington 39

3.0 Ocean Acidification in the West Coast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

3.0.1 Carbon Chemistry Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

3.0.2 Vulnerable species and ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

3.0.3 Immediate risk in shellfish . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

3.1 Monitoring Ocean Acidification (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

3.1.1 Oceanographic monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

3.1.2 Biological monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

3.1.3 Intensively studied marine areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

3.2 Organism Response to Ocean Acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

3.2.1 Exposure experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

3.2.2 Experiments on biological pump parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

3.2.3 Calcium carbonate mineralogy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

3.2.4 Detecting historical species response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

3.2.5 Testing ecosystem models with in situ experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

3.2.6 Evaluating potential mitigation methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

3.3 Biogeochemical and Ecological Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

3.3.1 Biogeochemical models—forecasting future conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

3.3.2 Biogeochemical models—hindcasting historical conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

3.3.3 Ecosystem models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

3.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

3.4.1 Impact of acidification on ecosystem services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

3.4.2 Management decision framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

3.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

3.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

3.7 Collaborators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

4 Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Russell E. Brainard, David Butterfield,

Mark Eakin, Richard A. Feely, Dwight K. Gledhill, Elizabeth Kehn, Kathyrn Shamberger, Adrienne

J. Sutton, Oliver Vetter, and Charles Young 59

4.0 Ocean Acidification in the Pacific Islands Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

4.0.1 Risks from ocean acidification in the Pacific Islands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

4.1 Developing an Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

4.1.1 Oceanographic monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

4.1.2 Biological monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

4.1.3 Integrating oceanographic and biological monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

4.2 Organism Response to Ocean Acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

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4.2.1 Species response laboratory experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

4.2.2 Reef response in situ experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

4.2.3 Estimate historical response to variation in saturation state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

4.2.4 Experiments on beach forming processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

4.2.5 Response experiments for cetaceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

4.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

4.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

4.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

4.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

4.7 Collaborators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

5 Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Dwight K. Gledhill,

Theresa Goedeke, Kevin Helmle, James Hendee, Anna Hilting, Elizabeth Jewett, Brian Keller, Derek

Manzello, Margaret Miller, Erica Rule, Bill Sunda, Fran Van Dolah, and Rik Wanninkhof 77

5.0 Ocean Acidification in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

5.0.1 Regional planning drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

5.0.2 Regional changes in carbonate chemistry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

5.0.3 Eutrophication and hypoxia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

5.0.4 Vulnerable species and ecosystems in the SER/GOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

5.1 Developing an Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

5.1.1 Oceanographic monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

5.1.2 Ecosystem coastal monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

5.2 Organism Response to Ocean Acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

5.2.1 Marine phytoplankton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

5.2.2 Bivalves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

5.2.3 Crustaceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

5.2.4 Other organisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

5.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

5.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

5.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

5.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

5.7 Collaborators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

6 Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Beth Phelan, Jon Hare, Ellen Mecray, Gary

Wikfors, Shannon Meseck, Christopher Chambers, Daniel Wieczorek, Vincent Guida, Ronald Goldberg, Dean Perry, Michael Fogarty, Paul Ticco, and Charles Stock 95

6.0 Ocean Acidification in the Northeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

6.1 Developing a Northeast Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

6.2 Organism Response to Ocean Acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

6.2.1 Primary producers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

6.2.2 Shellfish and finfish . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

6.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

6.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

6.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

6.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

6.7 Collaborators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

7 Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan—Simone R. Alin, Jennifer Day, Galen McKinley, Craig

Stow, Mary Baker, Ellen Brody, Reed Bohne, Thomas Nalepa, Terry Heatlie, Adrienne J. Sutton, and

Richard A. Feely 107

7.0 Lake Acidification in the Great Lakes Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

7.0.1 Confounding factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

7.1 Developing a Lake Acidification Monitoring Network (Theme 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

7.1.1 Water chemistry monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

7.1.2 Biological monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

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7.2 Organism Response to Lake Acidification (Theme 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

7.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Models (Theme 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

7.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

7.4.1 Bio-economic models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

7.4.2 Mitigation and adaptation strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

7.5 Synthesis of Data and Information Products (Theme 5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

7.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

7.7 Collaborators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

7.7.1 Interagency and international cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

References 121

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List of Figures

1.1 Time series of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa (in ppm) and surface ocean pH and pCO2 (μatm) at

Ocean Station Aloha in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.2 Number of papers published on species’ response to ocean acidification per year, inclusive of reviews

on the subject . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

1.3 Model-calculated aragonite saturation states (Ωarag) throughout the surface ocean in 2000, 2050, and

2099 . . ......................................................... 8

1.4 Planned ocean acidification monitoring sites in open-ocean, coastal ocean, and coral reef regions for

time-series measurements and process studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

2.1 Aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the Gulf of Alaska in September 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

2.2 Locations of coastal laboratories and oceanographic moorings in the Alaska Region with proposed

ocean acidification monitoring capabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

3.1 Cross-sections of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) and pH from the West Coast Cruise transect off of

northern California measured in May–June 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

3.2 Planned West Coast regional OA observational network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

3.3 Upwelling indicated by wind stress (top), compared with ocean variables (bottom) . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

3.4 Yield of English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus) under various fishing mortality rates (x-axis) with current

ecological processes (top curve) vs. strong ocean acidification impacts on benthos (bottom curve) . . 54

4.1 Pacific RAMP integrated map of visual observations of fish biomass and benthic composition at coral

reefs in the Pacific Islands overlaid on remotely sensed chl a concentration from SeaWiFS ocean color 67

4.2 Photos of Calcification Acidification Unit (CAU) and (b) Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structure (ARMS) 68

4.3 Map showing the current and nearterm deployment locations of Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) for establishing global baselines of cryptic coral reef biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

5.1 Aragonite saturation state within oceanic surface waters of the Greater Caribbean Region and regional

distribution for March 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

5.2 A broad range of experiments, process studies, and monitoring activities, coral reef OA monitoring

sites, coastal/oceanic OA moorings, hydrographic/geochemical ship surveys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

6.1 Winter climatology of surface layer pH and total alkalinity derived from MARMAP samples (1976–1984) 97

6.2 Proposed sampling design for an ocean acidification monitoring program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

7.1 EPA data of pCO2 in Lake Superior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

7.2 Maps of wet sulfate and nitrate deposition in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

vii
List of Tables

1.1 Estimated species vulnerability to direct affects of ocean acidification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.2 Planned open-ocean ocean acidification monitoring sites. Minus signs indicate S latitudes and W

longitudes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

1.3 Planned coastal early warning ocean acidification monitoring sites. Minus signs indicate S latitudes

and W longitudes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

1.4 Planned coral reef ocean acidification monitoring sites. Minus signs indicate S latitudes and W longitudes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

1.5 Structure and functions of the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program Office. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

3.1 Sampling programs within the California Current System that have historically collected physical,

chemical, and biological oceanography data of relevance for hindcasting the development of ocean

acidification along the West Coast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

3.2 Features of marine sanctuaries on the West Coast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

5.1 Candidate reef sites to serve as nodes within a Coral Reef Ocean Acidification Network within the

SER/GOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

5.2 Criteria for coral reef OA monitoring site evaluations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

6.1 Proposed finfish species for OA experiments and their economic and ecosystem values, ecology, habitat, and other key features. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

7.1 Temperature and chemical attributes of the five major Great Lake basins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

7.2 Physical attributes of the Great Lakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

7.3 Natural and anthropogenic gradients across the Great Lakes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

viii
Executive Summary

Ocean acidification has the potential to seriously threaten the future health of the world’s

oceans and the significant economic benefits they provide to humankind. This rapidly emerging scientific issue has raised serious concerns across

the scientific and resource management communities as to possible ecological and economic impacts.

As a part of NOAA’s mission and numerous legislative mandates, we are required to understand and

predict changes in Earth’s environment as a consequence of continued acidification of the oceans and

Great Lakes and conserve and manage marine organisms and ecosystems in response to such changes.

The Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring (FOARAM) Act of 2009 mandates that NOAA

has an active monitoring and research program to

determine potential impacts of decreased ocean pH

and carbonate saturation states, which are happening

in direct response to rising atmospheric CO2. Other

mandates (e.g., Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, National Marine Sanctuaries Act, Endangered Species Act, Coral Reef Conservation Act, and

Clean Water Act) also require that NOAA work to fully

understand the consequences of a changing environment to marine and Great Lakes resources. In addition, NOAA must respond to various interagency research planning documents, including Charting the

Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the

Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and

Implementation Strategy.

Characterizing the extent of acidification in our

oceans and Great Lakes and predicting the ramifications for marine and freshwater resources and ecosystem services is critical to national and international

climate mitigation discussions and to local communities that rely on these resources to prepare and

adapt to ocean acidification. The purpose of NOAA’s

Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan is

to present a consensus research strategy for NOAA to

advance the understanding of the impacts of ocean

acidification and to address related challenges to local

and national ecosystems and communities. The organizational construct of the plan allows for the flexible application of ocean acidification research unique

to each ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes region. This

is a living document that will continue to be revised

as NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program develops detailed plans for implementation of monitoring, experimental studies of biological impacts, education and

outreach, and data management activities.

The research and monitoring requirements detailed in this plan are designed to achieve tangible

progress toward addressing a set of core fundamental

hypotheses. These hypotheses are intended to provide strategic science-based guidance to the NOAA

research community and to help integrate the broad

range of proposed activities toward a common purpose. These hypotheses address the characterization

of the biogeochemical changes across a range of environments, evaluating the response of key aquatic organisms and ecosystems, and illuminating the range

of vulnerabilities in order to inform adaptive management strategies.

Hypothesis 1. Rates and magnitude of acidification will vary across time, space, and depth as a consequence of local and regional geochemical, hydrological, and biological mechanisms.

Hypothesis 2. Ocean acidification will change

ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity via

both direct impacts (e.g., altered growth or survival

rates) and indirect effects (e.g., food web and/or

habitat changes).

Hypothesis 3. Heterogeneity in species-specific

responses, local environmental and regional considerations will confer a broad range of vulnerabilities

that differ both locally and regionally.

The overarching goal of the NOAA Ocean and Great

Lakes Acidification Research Plan is to predict how

ecosystems will respond to acidification and to provide information that resource managers can use to

address acidification issues. The research effort will

be executed at the regional level with strong national

coordination. The monitoring of temporal and spatial

ix
x NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

trends will be done through ship-based and moored

observations of key physical, chemical, and biological parameters. Ecosystem responses will be studied

with the same platforms but will also require laboratory experiments to study physiological responses

to acidified waters. Modeling studies will delineate

large-scale changes in water chemistry and ecosystem response and will be used to develop adaptation

strategies in response to ocean and lake acidification.

The primary goals of this research are to: develop

the monitoring capacity to quantify and track ocean

acidification and its impacts in open-ocean, coastal,

and Great Lakes systems (Theme 1); assess the response of organisms to ocean and lake acidification

(Theme 2); forecast biogeochemical and ecological

responses to acidification (Theme 3); develop management strategies for responding and adapting to the

consequences of ocean acidification from a human

dimensions perspective (Theme 4); provide a synthesis of ocean and Great Lakes acidification data and

information (Theme 5); and provide an engagement

strategy for educational and public outreach (Theme

6). These themes will be executed taking full advantage of the observational, experimental, and modeling capacities within NOAA and relying on external research partners to complement and augment

NOAA’s internal expertise in coastal and ocean sciences. Progress will be gauged from ongoing synthesis and assessment efforts.

The research efforts are partitioned into a global

component and a coastal component (including the

Great Lakes), both of which are focused on scientific

and economic interests of the United States. For the

global component, improved coordination of existing

field efforts along with modest adjustments and enhancements to on-going and future research plans of

the NOAA ocean carbon, biological (fisheries), and

modeling communities, will allow us to meet many

of the research requirements. For coastal environments, a network of new hydrographic and ecological

surveys will be required along with new coastal models to provide an “early warning” system for ocean

acidification. Developing an ocean carbon observatory network would provide this capability by ensuring that key parameters (i.e., pH, pCO2, etc.) for understanding and forecasting the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems are monitored. NOAA

is well poised to enhance many capabilities within

NOAA that can be utilized to establish an ocean and

Great Lakes acidification ecosystem monitoring network that will not only characterize the carbon chemistry of these environments but also will monitor the

critical changes in community metabolic processes

that are required to determine the ultimate “carbon

thresholds” for ecosystem response. Some new technology and enabling activities will need to be developed or adapted for this component, including new

biogeochemical sensors for carbon species, gliders,

genomic tags, and a center of expertise for carbon

measurements. Monitoring carbon and ecosystems

is only part of the challenge—another key area of research will be estimating species response and predicting how the effects of acidification on individual

species will cause a loss of biodiversity and/or alter

entire food webs.

The development of a program to fulfill NOAA

Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

will benefit from a coordinated national research effort closely linked with other U.S. federal and state

government, university, and private efforts. What follows is a detailed plan for NOAA research on ocean

acidification. Chapter 1 outlines the overall rationale,

common elements and broad goals for the program;

Chapters 2 through 7 provide the research plans for

the six regions of intensive study; and Chapter 8 provides the program outputs, budgets, and timelines.
1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean

Acidification Program

Richard A. Feely, Chris Sabine, Rik

Wanninkhof, Simone R. Alin, Elizabeth Jewett,

Dwight K. Gledhill, John Dunne, Paul

McElhany, Adrienne J. Sutton, D. Shallin Busch,

Felipe Arzayus, Bill Sunda, Jessica Geubtner,

Jon Hare, Oliver Vetter, and Steve Hankin

1.0 Introduction

S

ince the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

in the mid-18th century, the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from our industrial and agricultural activities, commonly referred to as “anthropogenic CO2” has resulted in an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations from approximately 280

to 390 parts per million (ppm), with 30% of the increase occurring in the last three decades. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now higher than

experienced on Earth for more than 800,000 years.

These changes in CO2 are projected to cause significant temperature increases in the atmosphere and the

ocean surface in the coming decades. Over the industrial era, the ocean has absorbed about 30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions. This absorption has

benefited humankind by significantly curtailing the

growth of CO2 levels in the atmosphere, thereby reducing the global warming realized to date. However, when anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed by seawater, thereby increasing dissolved CO2 concentrations, chemical reactions occur that reduce both seawater pH and the concentration of carbonate ions in

a process known as “ocean acidification” (OA). The

pH of ocean surface waters has already decreased by

about 0.1 units since the beginning of the industrial

revolution (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Feely et al.,

2004; Caldeira and Wickett, 2005), with a decrease of

∼0.0018 yr−1 observed over the last quarter century

at several open ocean time-series sites (Bates, 2007;

Bates and Peters, 2007; Santana-Casiano et al., 2007;

Dore et al., 2009). By the middle of this century atmospheric CO2 levels could reach more than 500 ppm,

and over 800 ppm by the end of the century (Orr et al.,

2005). This would result in an additional decrease in

surface water pH of approximately 0.3 pH units by

2100. As a result, acidity in the ocean would increase

by about 150% relative to the beginning of the industrial era.

Results from global ocean CO2 surveys over the

past two decades have shown that ocean acidification

is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric

CO2 levels. Seawater carbonate chemistry is governed

by a series of abiotic chemical reactions (CO2 dissolution, acid/base chemistry, and calcium carbonate dissolution) and biologically mediated reactions (photosynthesis, respiration, and calcium carbonate precipitation). The first of these reactions is air-sea exchange, which results in CO2 dissolution in seawater,

and its subsequent release back to the atmosphere:

Air-sea exchange: CO2(atmos) CO2(aq). (1.1)

Equilibration between the atmosphere and the

ocean occurs on timescales of months so that surface waters increase in CO2 concentration from year

to year in proportion to the increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Hydration and acid/base reactions:

CO2(aq) +H2O H2CO3 H+ +HCO−

3 2H+ +CO2−3 .

(1.2)

Equilibration of the inorganic carbon species in

seawater occurs on timescales of tens of seconds

for CO2 hydration and microseconds for subsequent

acid-base reactions. Thus, for most applications, the

partitioning of inorganic carbonate species can be

assumed to be in equilibrium. For typical surface

ocean conditions, about 90% of the total dissolved

inorganic carbon (DIC) occurs as bicarbonate ions

(HCO−

3 ) and ∼9% as carbonate ions (CO2−3 ), with only

∼1% remaining as dissolved CO2(aq) and H2CO3. As

CO2 concentrations increase in seawater, CO2 reacts

1
2 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

with water to form carbonic acid (H2CO3). Most of

the H2CO3 dissociates to form a hydrogen ion (H+)

and a bicarbonate ion (HCO−

3 ) and most of the resulting H+ reacts with carbonate ions (CO2−

3 ) to produce additional HCO−

3 ions. As a result, CO2 dissolution in the ocean causes increases in H+ (and thus

decreased pH) and decreases in CO2−

3 concentration

(Figure 1.1). The decrease in CO2−

3 reduces the saturation state (Ω) of calcium carbonate (CaCO3), which

directly affects the ability of some CaCO3-secreting

organisms to produce their shells or skeletons. This

is true even though most surface waters in the global

ocean are currently supersaturated with respect to

calcium carbonate concentrations (e.g., Ω values of 2–

4 for aragonite (Ωarag) and 4–6 for calcite (Ωcal), the

two most common carbonate biominerals), because

non-biological precipitation rates for calcium carbonate minerals are exceedingly slow. Because of the slow

chemical kinetics, nearly all calcium carbonate precipitation in the ocean is biologically mediated. Many

organisms have optimal carbonate precipitation rates

at the existing supersaturation states for these minerals; thus, decreasing CO2−

3 concentrations could decrease calcification rates for many species.

Calcium carbonate precipitation and dissolution:

Ca2+ +CO2−

3 CaCO3(s) (1.3)

The saturation state of calcium carbonate is defined

by Ω = [Ca2+][CO2−

3 ]/K

sp. The apparent solubility

product (K

sp) varies with temperature, salinity, and

pressure and differs for different calcium carbonate

minerals (e.g., calcite and aragonite) (Mucci, 1983).

1.0.1 Biological consequences of ocean

acidification

The gradual process of ocean acidification has long

been recognized (Broecker and Takahashi, 1966; Bacastow and Keeling, 1973; Broecker et al., 1971; Feely

and Chen, 1982; Feely et al., 1984; 1988; 2002), but

the ecological implications of such chemical changes

have only recently been examined. Although initial

concerns about the effects of acidification focused

on the negative effect that decreased CaCO3 saturation state has on the ability of organisms to produce

calcium carbonate shells, it is becoming increasingly

clear that changes in CO2 and pH per se can affect

species growth, survival, and behavior (Pörtner, 2008).

Many non-calcareous species are affected by acidification, and the ability of calcareous species to produce shells can be affected by acidification factors

other than just saturation state (Pörtner, 2008). In ad400

375

350

325

300

275

CO2

8.40

8.35

8.30

8.25

8.20

8.15

8.10

8.05

8.00

pH

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

CO2 Time Series in the North Pacific

Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 (ppm)

Aloha seawater pCO2 (μatm)

Aloha seawater pH

Legend

Figure 1.1: Time series of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa

(in ppm) and surface ocean pH and pCO2 (μatm) at Ocean

Station Aloha in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean. Note

that the increase in oceanic CO2 over the last 19 years is

consistent with the atmospheric increase within the statistical limits of the measurements. Mauna Loa data: Dr.

Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

gmd/ccgg/trends); HOT/Aloha data: Dr. David Karl, University of Hawai’i (http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu)

(modified after Doney et al., 2009a).

dition to the effects of changes in CO2, pH, and saturation state, secondary chemical reactions can change

other components of seawater, such as the concentration of various forms of trace elements and nutrients,

which in turn can affect species growth and survival

(Doney et al., 2009a).

The number of studies exploring the biological impact of acidification is increasing rapidly (Figure 1.2).

In Table 1.1, we qualitatively estimate the response of

species groups to acidification, which can be negative

or positive, and describe the species’ importance to

ecological processes and economic value (“ecosystem

services”). Species response to changing ocean conditions will likely depend on both their physiological response once exposed to high-CO2 environments and

the probability of being in a high-CO2 environment.

The response of the majority of species to ocean acidification has not been evaluated in either the laboratory (CO2 experiments) or field, and estimating the

response of untested species is challenging because

of the high variability in response, even in closely related species (Miller et al., 2009; Ries et al., 2009). Calcifying organisms (e.g., corals, shellfish, and marine

plankton) are generally considered the species most

vulnerable to acidification, with mineralogy playing a

role in susceptibility. The solubility of calcium carbonate minerals from most to least soluble is: (1)

amorphous, (2) high-magnesium calcite, (3) aragonite, (4) low-magnesium calcite, and (5) calcite. The
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 3

Potential Direct Effects of Ocean Acidification

• Reduced calcification rates of shell-forming animals—The reduced saturation state affects the ability to produce

calcium carbonate shell, makes the process more physiologically costly, or leads to dissolution of existing calcium

carbonate structures.

• Altered reproduction and survival from reduced pH—Organisms generally require energy to maintain appropriate

intra-cellular pH balance. Altering the external pH of seawater can overwhelm pH control mechanisms, affecting

reproduction or survival.

• Reduced olfaction in fish—Increased CO2 in seawater can affect the ability of fishes to detect critical olfactory cues.

• Increased photosynthesis—Because CO2 is required for photosynthesis, some photosynthetic organisms, especially

those without effective carbon concentrating mechanisms, may have increased photosynthetic rates with increased

CO2.

• Hypercapnia—Increased CO2 in internal fluids, especially in highly energetic species like squid, can affect mobility,

survival, or reproduction. The ability of organisms to decrease CO2 concentration in internal fluids by transferring

CO2 across membranes to seawater is reduced when seawater CO2 concentrations are high.

• Acoustic disruption from reduced sound absorption—Changes in ocean pH will alter the acoustic properties of the

ocean, increasing transmission of low-frequency sounds, which may affect species relying on acoustic information.

• Changes in speciation of some metals, nutrients, or toxic compounds—Acidification will alter speciation (ionic form)

of various metals, nutrients, or toxics in a way that may affect species reproduction and survival.

form of calcium carbonate produced by species could

be used to rank species in terms of expected vulnerability. However, such rankings are not very reliable

because other factors, including the mechanism of

biomineralization and differences in basic metabolic

processes, affect how calcareous species respond to

acidification. For example, two congeneric species of

oyster show different responses when exposed to elevated CO2, perhaps as a result of differing metabolic

rates (Miller et al., 2009; Ries et al., 2009). Although no

single factor is an absolute predictor of how a species

will respond, we relied on extrapolations from existing studies and basic principles (e.g., mineralogy and

taxonomy) to develop the expected responses in Table

1.1.

The indirect effects of acidification are likely to

impact nearly every species in marine food webs

to some extent through food web predator-prey interactions, increased prevalence of invasive species,

changes in pathogen distributions, and alterations of

physical ecosystem structure (e.g., decline in oyster

reefs). Although all ecosystem types are likely to be

impacted, some are expected to experience greater effects than others.

Although it is premature to predict how severely

each ecosystem type will be affected by acidification,

we can anticipate that some ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to change. For example, a decline

in coral reef accretion rates due to simultaneous increases in temperature and decreases in carbonate

ion concentration (Silverman et al., 2009) would have

negative impacts on coral reef ecosystems, with consequent effects on fisheries, tourism, and coastal protection from storms. In addition, many non-reef benthic ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable because they are often dominated by calcareous species

such as filter-feeding bivalves and predatory echinoderms and gastropods. Moreover, benthic communities are likely to experience more prolonged exposure to acidified water masses sooner than shallower

communities. Recent observations indicate that bivalve shellfish hatcheries on both the West and East

coasts are experiencing a decline in production, and

adverse effects on the West Coast may be linked to

upwelling of naturally low pH waters coupled with OA

(Feely et al., 2008). The response of pelagic communiFigure 1.2: Number of papers published on species’ response to ocean acidification per year, inclusive of reviews

on the subject. Note this figure only partially includes

manuscripts on tropical corals, and the publication record

for 2009 is incomplete.
4 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Table 1.1: Estimated species vulnerability to direct affects of ocean acidification (Busch et al., in preparation).

Group Impacts of ocean acidification Ecosystem services Selected references

Large animals

Bivalves • Negative effects on development

(calcification, growth, maturation)

• Decreased growth of adults

• Decreased calcification

• Decreased overall health

• Large industries developed around

oyster, clam, and mussel species

• Filter marine and estuarine waters

• Create habitat for other species

(Beesley et al., 2008; Berge et al.,

2006; Gazeau et al., 2007;

Kurihara, 2008; Kurihara et al.,

2008a; 2007; Michaelidis et al.,

2005; Miller et al., 2009; Parker

et al., 2009; Sunday et al., 2010;

Talmage and Gobler, 2009;

Tunnicliffe et al., 2009)

Benthic gastropods—

snails, abalone

• Increase in mortality

• Decrease in growth

• Decrease in metabolism

• Less active during development

• Some decreased in calcification

• Predators on benthic bivalves (Bibby et al., 2007; Ellis et al., 2009;

Hall-Spencer et al., 2008;

Shirayama and Thornton, 2005;

Zippay and Hofmann, 2010)

Corals • Decrease in calcification • Create habitat for other species

• Tourism and recreation

• Coastal protection

• Source of new medicines

(Jokiel et al., 2008; Maier et al., 2009;

Gattuso et al., 1998; Marubini

et al., 2001; 2002; Marshall and

Clode, 2002; Ohde and Hossain,

2004; Borowitzka, 1981; Gao et al.,

1993; Langdon et al., 2000; 2003;

Langdon and Atkinson, 2005;

Leclercq et al., 2000; 2002;

Anthony et al., 2008; Yates and

Halley, 2006; Manzello et al., 2008;

Kurihara, 2008; Reynaud et al.,

2003; Cohen et al., 2009; Holcomb

et al., 2009)

Crustacea—Crabs

and lobsters

• No change in calcification,

mortality, metabolism, or heat

tolerance in porcelain and

swimming crabs

• No change in growth or mortality

of lobsters

• Nothing known about impacts on

cancer crab adults or crab zoea

• Much revenue gained from harvest

of crab species (e.g., Dungeness,

King)

• Important omnivores in food webs

(Calosi et al., 2009; Spicer et al.,

2007; Arnold et al., 2009; Pane and

Barry, 2007; Walther et al., 2009)

Crustacea—

Barnacles

• Negative effects on development

• No change in growth

• Mixed effects on abundance in

field

• Fouls many human structures

• Creates habitat for other species

(Dupont and Thorndyke, 2009;

McDonald et al., 2009;

Hall-Spencer et al., 2008; Wootton

et al., 2008)

Cephalopods (squid,

cuttlefish, octopus)

• Decrease in metabolic rate and

activity bouts

• Revenue gained from commercial

fisheries

(Rosa and Seibel, 2008;

Lacoue-Labarthe et al., 2009)

Echinoderms—

seastars and

brittlestars

• Negative effects on development

• Increased growth and metabolism

as adults

• Mixed effects on calcification

• Keystone predators in intertidal

systems

• Important bioturbators

(Dupont et al., 2008; Dupont and

Thorndyke, 2009; Gooding et al.,

2009; Wood et al., 2008; 2009)

Echinoderms—

urchins

• Negative effects on development

• Decreased calcification

• Decreased abundance in the field

• Important consumers in benthic

food webs

• Revenue gained from fisheries

(Byrne, 2009; Clark et al., 2009;

Dupont and Thorndyke, 2009;

Hall-Spencer et al., 2008;

Havenhand et al., 2008; Kurihara,

2008; Kurihara et al., 2004b;

Kurihara and Shirayama, 2004a;b;

O’Donnell et al., 2010; Shirayama

and Thornton, 2005; Siikavuopio

et al., 2007; Sunday et al., 2010)

Fish • Some evidence for negative effects

on development

• Decrease in olfactory ability

• No change in metabolism

• Can compensate for acidosis

• Some evidence for decrease in

growth rate and body condition

• Important food source

• Large industries developed around

commercial and sport fisheries

• Higher tropic level members of

food chain

• Culturally important as symbols

and for sport

(Dixson et al., 2010; Foss et al., 2003;

Melzner et al., 2009; Munday

et al., 2009; Pörtner, 2008)

Jellies • Limited to no evidence for a

positive relationship with pH

• Thrive in eutrophied and warm

environments

• Some commercial harvest

• Nuisance species for many

fisheries

• Public health problems related to

some species

(Attrill and Edwards, 2008; Attrill

et al., 2007; Haddock, 2008;

Richardson et al., 2009;

Richardson and Gibbons, 2008)
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 5

Table 1.1: Continued.

Group Impacts of ocean acidification Ecosystem services Selected references

Large animals (continued)

Mammals • Increase in noise pollution • Top predators in food webs

• Tourist industries developed

around viewing marine mammals

(esp. orcas)

• Cultural existence values

(Hester et al., 2008; Ilyina et al.,

2010)

Shrimp • Decreased settling size and adult

growth

• Increased mortality

• Decreased egg production

• Revenue gained from harvest of

shrimp species (e.g., spot prawn)

(Kurihara, 2008; Kurihara et al.,

2008b)

Tunicates • Positive effects on development

• Increased survival

• Nuisance invasive species (Dupont and Thorndyke, 2009)

Plankton

Bacteria—Blue-green

algae

• Most species increase growth rate

• Longer bloom timing

• Increase in nitrogen fixation

• Large biomass pool

• Some species can produce toxins

• Fix nitrogen in marine food webs

(Barcelos e Ramos et al., 2007; Fu

et al., 2007; Levitan et al., 2007)

Foraminifera • Decreased calcification

• Decreased growth

• Important in global carbon cycles (Bijima et al., 2002; 1999; Guinotte

and Fabry, 2008; Doney et al.,

2009a; Bernhard et al., 2009;

Dissard et al., 2010; Kuroyanagi

et al., 2009; Moy et al., 2009)

Phytoplankton (e.g.,

coccolithophores)

• Mixed effects on growth

• Mixed effects on calcification

• Some increase photosynthetic

efficiency

• Most increase C:N and C:P ratios

(e.g., they are less nutritious food

for consumers)

• Important primary producers

• Important in global carbon cycles

• Base of food web

• Alter local ocean chemistry

(Bellerby et al., 2008; Collins and

Bell, 2004; Delille et al., 2005;

Doney et al., 2009a; Guinotte and

Fabry, 2008; Hare et al., 2007;

Iglesias-Rodriguez et al., 2008;

Kuffner et al., 2007; Riebesell

et al., 1993; 2000; 2007; Rost et al.,

2008; Tortell et al., 2008; Hinga,

2002; Iglesias-Rodriguez et al.,

2008; Langer et al., 2006)

Zooplankton—

crustacean

• Negative effects on development

(timing, success, viability) in some

copepods, krills, and amphipods

• No effect on adult growth and

survival in copepods

• Limited to no effect on fecundity

in copepods and amphipods

• Base of food web for most fish

species

(Dupont and Thorndyke, 2009;

Egilsdottir et al., 2009; Hauton

et al., 2009; Kurihara, 2008;

Kurihara and Ishimatsu, 2008;

Kurihara et al., 2004a; Mayor

et al., 2007)

Zooplankton—

pteropods

• Decreased calcification • Key prey of pink and chum salmon (Orr et al., 2005)

Plants

Coralline algae • Decreased growth

• Decreased calcification

• Decreased abundance in most

studies

• Create habitat for other species (Anthony et al., 2008; Gao et al.,

1993; Hall-Spencer et al., 2008;

Jokiel et al., 2008; Kuffner et al.,

2007; Martin and Gattuso, 2009;

Martin et al., 2008; Wootton et al.,

2008)

Kelp • Differential effects on growth

depending on species

• Decreases in decomposition rates

(e.g., increase in shoreline wrack,

decrease nutrients in inter and

subtidal food webs)

• Important primary producer

• Create habitat for other species,

including many economically

important fish species

(Klinger and Kershner, 2008;

Swanson and Fox, 2007; Thom,

1996)

Seagrasses • Increase in photosynthesis and

growth

• Increase in survival and

maturation

• Increase in flower output

• Decrease in calcareous epiphytes

• Important primary producer

• Create habitat for other species,

especially as nursery grounds

• Protects shoreline from erosion

and storm surges

(Invers et al., 2010; Palacios and

Zimmerman, 2007; Hall-Spencer

et al., 2008)
6 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

ties to acidification is less obvious because the vulnerability of many key taxonomic groups in the system,

such as phytoplankton and zooplankton, is unknown,

as is the vulnerability of pelagic fish species; however,

many of these species employ some form of calcification during development and are sensitive to ambient

pH. How bacteria will respond to acidification is also

a key unknown in the potential reshaping of the base

of marine food webs (Hutchins et al., 2009).

Another important consideration is that acidification is not the only stressor affecting marine and

Great Lake species and ecosystems. Most coastal

ecosystems already experience fishing pressures, input of chemical contaminants, and exotic and invasive species and will likely experience changes in dissolved oxygen—not only from altered ocean dynamics but also from anthropogenic nutrient inputs. In

addition, the overarching effects of climate change

impose challenges to all coastal ecosystems. It is in

this context that ocean and lake acidification needs

to be evaluated and all ecosystem research should,

where possible, integrate information on all possible

stressors.

It is also important to note that not all biological

impacts from rising atmospheric CO2 are necessarily

deleterious. Nitrogen-fixation by the cyanobacterium,

Trichodesmium, for example, is enhanced by elevated

CO2 concentrations (Hutchins et al., 2007). Growth

and light-saturated photosynthetic rates of seagrasses

are also increased under high-CO2 conditions (Palacios and Zimmerman, 2007; Zimmerman et al., 1997).

There will likely be ecological “winners” as well as

“losers,” resulting in regional changes in ecosystem

structure through local competition for resources and

possible migration of species populations. The question remains, however, what the ecological and societal consequences will be from the loss of key calcifying and other species, and how the “winners” will

alter the ecosystems or the biogeochemical cycles

they regulate. Interactions with other climate change

effects further complicate our understanding of the

ecological consequences of OA.

1.0.2 The ocean’s biological pump

Photosynthesis by marine photosynthetic organisms

consumes CO2 and thus reduces the acidity of surface waters and increases the concentration of carbonate ions. It also produces a large fraction of the

annual global supply of oxygen and consumes other

nutrients such as nitrate, phosphate, and iron, all of

which can be limiting in different parts of the ocean.

As this plant matter sinks into the subsurface layers of

the ocean it is re-oxidized back to CO2 by microbial

respiration. Thus, the coupled biological reactions of

photosynthetic fixation of CO2 in surface ocean waters and microbial remineralization of organic matter

to CO2 in deeper unlit ocean waters represents a biological carbon pump that transports surface CO2 to

the deep ocean. This biological CO2 pump removes

CO2 from the atmosphere and it increases CO2 concentrations in the deep ocean waters. And by increasing CO2 concentration in the deep ocean, it also decreases deepwater pH by up to 0.6 units and substantially decreases carbonate ion concentrations. Thus

the biological pump impacts the natural cycles of carbon in the ocean and produces large gradients in CO2,

pH, and carbonate ion concentrations with depth.

Photosynthesis  Respiration:

CO2 +H2O CH2O+O2. (1.4)

The effect of the coupled biological processes of photosynthesis and respiration may be highly important

in coastal, estuarine, and Great Lakes systems that receive high anthropogenic inputs of nutrients (mostly

fertilizer) and organic matter derived from sewage

and agricultural runoff. High anthropogenic inputs of

nutrients can promote algal blooms and drive an enhanced biological CO2 pump in estuaries (e.g., Chesapeake Bay) and coastal waters (e.g., the Mississippi

River plume), similar to that naturally occurring in

upwelled ocean waters of the Pacific. When the increased algal biomass is respired at depth by bacteria, it causes a drop in oxygen (hypoxia) and an increase in CO2, further decreasing pH and the carbonate ion. This phenomenon is particularly acute in systems at the mouths of rivers or in estuaries where water is stratified by salinity, thus preventing aeration

of bottom waters (Feely et al., 2010). These indirect

anthropogenic effects have the potential to adversely

impact ecologically and economically important calcifying organisms (e.g., clams and oysters), especially

when combined with increasing atmospheric inputs

of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

1.0.3 Evidence of ocean acidification from

data and models

The abiotic and biological processes described above

are well verified from models, open-ocean hydrographic surveys, and time-series data (Bates, 2007;

Bates and Peters, 2007; Caldeira and Wickett, 2003;

2005; Chung et al., 2003; Feely et al., 2002; 2004; 2008;

2009; Orr et al., 2005; Sabine and Feely, 2007; Dore
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 7

et al., 2009). At the Hawai’i Ocean Time-Series (HOT)

station, ALOHA, the increases of surface water pCO2

and atmospheric CO2 agree well (Figure 1.1), indicating uptake of anthropogenic CO2 as the major cause

for long-term increases in dissolved inorganic carbon

(DIC) and decreases in CaCO3 saturation state (Doney

et al., 2009b). While ocean acidification is a globalscale phenomenon, there are near-surface ocean regions that already naturally experience low pH conditions linked to the upwelling or mixing of low pH

deep ocean waters to the surface. Additional anthropogenic inputs of CO2 in these regions may be particularly deleterious. Modeling studies have suggested

that the high-latitude surface waters in the Arctic and

Southern Oceans, where deep mixing occurs during

winter, will experience aragonite undersaturation by

the middle of the century (Cao and Caldeira, 2008;

Gehlen et al., 2007; Orr et al., 2005); whereas other

studies (Steinacher et al., 2008; Feely et al., 2009) indicate that surface waters in the Arctic will start experiencing localized aragonite undersaturation within the

next decade (Figure 1.3).

Feely et al. (2008) presented data that demonstrated organisms growing in coastal upwelling areas

along the continental shelf of the west coast of North

America may already be experiencing significant biological impacts resulting from the combined impacts

of coastal upwelling and ocean acidification. Here

the seasonal upwelling of subsurface waters along the

coast brings CO2-enriched waters onto the shelf and,

in some instances, into the surface ocean. It appears

that this water, in addition to its original high level

of CO2 resulting from natural respiration processes

in the subsurface layers, is also significantly enriched

with anthropogenic CO2. An immediate consequence

of this additional CO2 is that the pH and carbonate

saturation state of these upwelled waters is significantly lower than what it would have been in preindustrial times. Since these “acidified” upwelled waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite, they

are already a potential threat to many of the calcifying aragonitic species that live in these coastal regions. Because seasonal upwelling is a common phenomenon in many coastal regions, this process may

be affecting coastal ecosystems in other locations as

well. Shoaling of undersaturated waters has been observed in the North Pacific (Feely et al., 1988; 2002),

and the Chukchi Sea of the Arctic (Bates et al., 2009),

where the biological CO2 pump enhances the seasonal undersaturation of carbonate minerals in subsurface waters.

1.0.4 Goals and scientific rationale

The principal goals for the NOAA Ocean and Great

Lakes Acidification Research Plan are to: develop the

monitoring capacity to quantify and track ocean acidification in open-ocean, coastal, and Great Lake systems (Theme 1); assess the response of marine and

freshwater organisms to ocean and lake acidification

(Theme 2); forecast biogeochemical and ecological

responses to acidification (Theme 3); provide a synthesis of ocean and Great Lake acidification data and

information (Theme 4) that aids in development of

tools for managing coastal, open ocean, and Great

Lakes ecosystems and preparing human communities for potential OA-related changes (Theme 5); and

provide information about ocean acidification to educators and develop materials for public outreach

(Theme 6). The NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan will be designed to integrate

new methodologies and approaches as they become

available. A coordinated multidisciplinary program of

field observations, laboratory studies, and modeling

is critical to achieving a successful research strategy

for ocean acidification. It will facilitate the development of our capability to predict present and future

responses of marine and Great Lakes biota, ecosystem processes, and biogeochemistry to acidification

(Fabry et al., 2008).

Critical new research elements should include regional and global networks of observations and process studies; manipulative experiments involving a

suite of organisms in laboratory experiments and

mesocosm and field studies; technological advances;

and new modeling approaches. Indices for ocean

acidification beyond basic water-column physics and

chemistry have yet to be adequately developed. Parameters that can be measured routinely onboard

ships include temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrients,

CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), pH, total alkalinity (TA),

dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic

carbon (DOC), and particulate organic and inorganic

carbon (POC, PIC). While some of these chemical parameters now can be measured on moorings, it is

not yet possible to collect needed data on a global

scale. To expand capabilities of non-ship-based platforms, we need to develop new platform-appropriate

methodologies for measuring fundamental chemical

parameters (e.g., DIC and TA) and proxies of stress in

biological organisms. Two key questions regarding responses to ocean acidification are (1) whether or not

there are geochemical thresholds for ocean acidification (e.g., CaCO3 mineral saturation state levels) that

will lead to irreversible effects on species populations

and ecosystems over the next few decades and (2)
8 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Figure 1.3: Model-calculated aragonite saturation states (Ωarag) throughout the surface ocean in 2000, 2050, and 2099 (from

Feely et al., 2009 and readapted for Oceanus). Ωarag < 1 indicates undersaturation; Ωarag > 1 indicates supersaturation.

whether we can develop new biological methodologies to determine whether organisms and ecosystems

can adapt sufficiently to changing seawater chemistry

in ways that will reduce potential negative impacts of

ocean acidification. In addition, there are four priority research areas that will directly affect management

actions: (1) help define atmospheric and ocean limits

for anthropogenic CO2; (2) forecast biodiversity and

ecosystem changes at a regional scale to help prepare

coastal communities; (3) guide management actions,

such as coastal and marine spatial planning and fishery management, by altering where and when activities (like shellfish production) take place; and (4) direct local mitigation of acidification (e.g., buffering of

local estuarine conditions).

Finally, as a part of NOAA’s mission and numerous

legislative mandates, we are required to understand

and predict changes in the Earth’s environment as a

consequence of continued acidification of the oceans

and Great Lakes and conserve and manage marine organisms and ecosystems in response to such changes.

The Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring (FOARAM) Act of 2009 mandates that NOAA

has an active monitoring and research program to determine potential impacts of decreased ocean pH and

carbonate saturation states. Other mandates (e.g.,

Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, National Marine Sanctuaries Act, Endangered Species

Act, Coral Reef Conservation Act, and Clean Water

Act) also require that NOAA work to fully understand

the consequence of a changing environment to marine and Great Lakes resources. U.S. fisheries are extensive, and NOAA is responsible for maintaining sustainable fisheries under the Magnuson-Stevens Act

and for protecting ESA-listed species. Both the commercially important fisheries and the ecosystems that

support them will be affected by ocean acidification.

In addition, NOAA has management responsibilities

for National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS), which protect

some of the unique habitats and organisms vulnerable to acidification, such as the deep water corals at

the Olympic NMS off of the Washington Coast. Recently, another regulatory issue arose regarding the

federal government’s regulation of ocean acidification

impacts on waters and ecosystems under the Clean

Water Act (i.e., Center for Biological Diversity vs. the

Environmental Protection Agency). The research described in this plan is intended to inform NOAA’s

management decisions, NOAA’s interagency partners,

and decision makers at the local and national levels.

This document provides a NOAA plan for an

ocean and Great Lakes acidification observing system, species-specific and ecosystem response studies to the high CO2 levels, modeling studies of largescale physical and biogeochemical changes in carbonate chemistry and pH, and modeling studies of

ecosystem responses to predicted changes in the major ocean basins, the Great Lakes, marginal seas, and

coasts surrounding the United States and its territories. These goals will be achieved with both inhouse expertise and NOAA’s funding of extramural

researchers through competitively awarded grants.

While much of the following description of a national ocean acidification program applies to the

Great Lakes directly, the specifics of the Great Lakes
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 9

acidification research strategy will be described in detail in Chapter 7.

1.1 Developing an Ocean

Acidification Monitoring

Network (Theme 1)

The existing global oceanic carbon observatory network of repeat hydrographic surveys, time-series stations (ship-based and moored) and ship-based underway surface observations in the Atlantic, Pacific,

and Indian Oceans provide a strong foundation of

carbonate chemistry observations to begin addressing the problem of ocean acidification. Indeed,

much of our present understanding of the long-term

changes in the carbonate system is derived from the

repeat ocean sections and time-series measurements

(Bates, 2007; Feely et al., 2008; 2004; 2002). Enhancing these activities and expanding the global moored

time-series network with new carbon and pH sensors

will provide important information on the changing

conditions in the open ocean. U.S. coastal and estuarine environments do not currently have coordinated

carbon observing networks and are presently grossly

under-sampled. Building on existing infrastructure,

however, coastal and estuarine networks of shipboard

and remote autonomous measurements similar to the

open ocean network can be established.

At this point, most of the current, moored carbon

observatories only contain instrumentation to measure pCO2 (i.e., partial pressure of CO2), which is insufficient to fully constrain the carbon system. An effective monitoring and forecasting system for ocean

acidification needs to include measurements of a second carbon parameter. Sensors or automated, in situ

analytical systems for measuring total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) would

be beneficial for detecting changes in the marine inorganic carbon system caused by changes in CO2

concentrations or the introduction of other non-CO2

sources of acidification, particularly in coastal regions (Doney et al., 2007; Ilyina et al., 2010). Ideally, this network would also have the capability to

measure CaCO3 saturation states and CaCO3 production/dissolution rates. Measurements of net primary

production, either directly or from nutrient or oxygen

inventories along with hydrodynamic considerations

in estuarine and coastal waters, are also important

to allow physical and biological effects on ocean DIC

chemistry to be identified. These additional measurements are needed to predict ecosystem responses to

ocean acidification.

Leveraging existing infrastructure and monitoring

programs will enable research to be conducted efficiently and quickly. For example, additional inorganic

carbon system measurements and process studies

should be conducted at the existing time-series stations to place these studies in a proper context relative to the local temporal variability. An ocean acidification observational network can be constructed

by enhancing the capabilities of existing autonomous

analytical systems, by increasing the number and distribution of time-series stations, and by repeat surveys and underway measurements in open-ocean and

coastal regions. This network will provide a better understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of variability in ocean carbon chemistry and biology and the

observational basis for developing predictive models

for future changes in ocean acidification and its consequences for marine ecosystems. NOAA has several long-term monitoring programs, some associated with protected resources, such as the National

Estuarine Research Reserves and the National Marine Sanctuaries. Using these existing resources will

take advantage of long-term baseline data characterizing coastal conditions for these place-based protected sites.

Task 1.1: Develop and implement program for

monitoring carbon-cycle-related oceanographic

parameters in U.S. coastal, Great Lakes, and

open-ocean waters.

1.1.1 Measurement requirements

1.1.1.1 General requirements

On ship-based, oceanographic cruises, such as the

CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program or the

ocean time-series programs, DIC, pCO2, TA, and pH

can be measured with very high accuracy and precision. The methods are well established and described in great detail in the “Guide to Best Practices

for Ocean CO2 Measurements” (Dickson et al., 2007).

In addition, appropriate standards are available for

DIC, TA, and pCO2. For ocean acidification research

at least two, and preferably three, of the four carbon parameters should be measured at each of the

sampling depths to allow determination of all DIC

species and parameters and to ensure internal consistency of the data sets. International data synthesis efforts, such as that being carried out as part of

the CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program, must

be continued to ensure the precision and accuracy re-
10 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Common Analysis Protocols for Ocean Acidification Monitoring

A key to the ocean acidification research plan is to develop a set of common parameters and analysis protocols for

monitoring sites (e.g., moorings and sentinel sites) such that accurate long-term and consistent measurements are

obtained for all locations. The measurements listed in Table Box 1 will provide the core data required to document

the evolution of ocean acidification. In addition to these measurements, each site will likely have unique measurements

and process studies tailored to evaluate the local or regional OA ecological responses. Physical and biological processes

affect seawater chemistry in different ways such that several inorganic carbon species and related parameters must be

determined to obtain an accurate temporal record of changes.

The product delivery is challenging because not all instrumentation is at a stage of development to deliver accurate data

over the envisioned endurance periods of autonomous instruments ranging from 6 months to a year. The most robust

measurement of inorganic carbon system parameters on buoys is surface water CO2 (i.e., from a MAP-CO2 system).

Instruments are also commercially available for surface and subsurface pH and pCO2. However, the pCO2-pH pairing

is not ideal for constraining the ocean carbon system. Subsurface sensors will be particularly important in areas where

benthic organisms are likely to be impacted (e.g., coral reefs).

For calcifying organisms the following carbon parameters and measurements are needed roughly in order of priority:

saturation statesa, carbonate ion (CO2−

3 ), pHb, pCO2

c. The saturation state and carbonate ion concentration are

calculated parameters from inorganic carbon system measurements while the pH and pCO2 are two measured parameters

with the most mature autonomous in situ analytical systems. The saturation states and CO2−

3 can be calculated with two

measured parameters, knowledge of the carbonate dissociation constants, temperature, and salinity. The sensitivity with

which the saturation states and CO2−

3 can be calculated is dependent on the parameter measured; pH and pCO2 yield the

greatest uncertainty, followed by the TA, DIC pair. pH or pCO2 with DIC yields the greatest precision, closely followed

by pH or pCO2 and TA. The uncertainty in the pH or pCO2 and TA combination is impacted by incomplete knowledge

of the minor acids and bases in seawater, especially in estuarine systems, that contribute to TA. An ambitious instrument

development and testing effort is called out, focused on improving current pH and pCO2 sensors and developing robust

DIC and TA sensors for autonomous operation.

In addition to the carbon system parameters all sites should measure temperature and salinity at the specified frequency

and precision. Some key biological indicators are required as well to estimate the ecological response of OA. Oxygen,

chlorophyll, and turbidity are recommended as indicators of photosynthesis/respiration and planktonic biomass because

the autonomous sensors are reasonably mature. Additional sensors should be evaluated to determine if they provide

additional constraints on the system.

The discrete measurements in Table Box 1 are critical for validation and assessment of accuracies. All measurements

should follow procedures and protocols outlined in the Best Practices guides (Dickson et al., 2007; Riebesell et al., 2010).

The discrete and autonomous samples will be used to create algorithms with salinity, oxygen, and temperature to estimate

saturation states and other pertinent parameters in areas that do not have the full suite of measurements (e.g., Gledhill

et al., 2009; Juranek et al., 2009).

Table Box 1: Minimum core measurements at OA monitoring sites

Parameter Frequency Precision Comment

pCO2 8 × day 3 μatm autonomous/surface & subsurface

pH 8 × day 0.004 autonomous/surface & subsurface

O2 8 × day 2 μmol kg–1 autonomous/surface & subsurface

Chlorophyll 8 × day 0.1 μg kg–1 autonomous/surface & subsurface

Turbidity 8 × day 0.1 NTU autonomous/surface & subsurface

T 8 × day 0.02◦C autonomous/surface & subsurface

S 8 × day 0.02 autonomous/surface & subsurface

DIC 4 × year 3 μmol kg–1 discrete/water column/characterization

TA 4 × year 3 μmol kg–1 discrete/water column/characterization

pH 4 × year 0.004 discrete/water column/validation

O2 4 × year 2 μmol kg–1 discrete/water column/validation

Chlorophyll 4 × year 0.1 μg kg–1 discrete/water column/validation

pCO2 4 × year 3 μatm underway/surface/val. & char.

aSaturation states is the degree to which seawater

is saturated with respect to a particular carbonate

mineral. A value less then 1 means the mineral will,

from a thermodynamic perspective, dissolve in seawater. It is defined as the product of calcium and

carbonate ion concentration divided by the solubility product of the mineral phase.

bThe pH has to be referenced to a certain scale at

a certain temperature. The recommended expression, pHF(T) refers to pH on the free hydrogen ion

scale at in situ temperature.

cThe pCO2 must be referenced to a certain temperature. pCO2(T) is the partial pressure of CO2 at in situ temperature.
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 11

quired to determine the anthropogenic CO2 contributions to ocean acidification.

For unmanned platforms, including moorings,

gliders, autonomous vehicles and floats, additional

technology development is needed to properly assess

the full carbon system. Commercial systems are available for moored measurements of pCO2 and pH (see

http://www.ioccp.org/ for a list of available sensors). However, the combination of pCO2 and pH sensors does not allow for the most accurate and precise calculation of CaCO3 saturation state, and some

of these systems are not ideal for sustained deployments, especially in coastal and estuarine environments. Consequently, there is an immediate need

to develop autonomous, commercial analytical systems for continuous measurements of DIC and TA

on a variety of unmanned platforms. Robust, lowpower sensors also need to be developed for the variety of other autonomous platforms that are becoming available to the community. Although currently

there are no carbon sensors ready for profiling floats,

the addition of commercially available oxygen sensors to the Argo array would help constrain carbon

distributions through empirical relationships as well

as directly evaluating biogeochemical changes in the

ocean. There is a critical need for intensive timeseries measurements from sensors and other analytical devices on moored buoys in at least some high

productivity coastal and estuarine systems as CO2

and carbonate ion concentrations in these waters

can vary substantially on timescales from hours to

decades due to tides, photosynthesis (which occurs

only during daytime), and river or ground water inputs. Variations in calcium concentrations in these

systems also affect the solubility of calcium carbonate minerals produced by molluscs (e.g., clams and

oysters) and other ecologically or commercially important marine organisms. A full evaluation of the

response of marine ecosystems to ocean acidification

will require a wide range of measurements of existing

and evolving community compositions, interactions,

and distributions, as well as experimental studies of

the responses of organisms and communities to elevated CO2 and concomitant changes in carbonate ion

concentrations.

1.1.1.2 Ecosystem-specific requirements

In the case of coral reefs, baseline studies that encompass the natural temporal (diurnal- to interannual) and spatial (latitudinal) changes in near-reef

carbonate chemistry are still not available. Such baselines are being ascertained through the use of in-situ,

high-frequency water samplers and water sampling at

selected reefs across large latitudinal gradients. In addition, methods have been established for measuring

calcification and extension rates from cores of massive reef-building scleractinian corals. These methods need to be applied systematically to both older

massive corals and younger branching and encrusting

corals broadly distributed across gradients of aragonite saturation state. In addition, a global array of

simple calcification plates (or similar devices) should

be deployed to monitor the calcification rates of sessile calcareous organisms, such as crustose coralline

algae, a major reef builder that often acts as the cement holding reefs together. As an example of tools

to assess spatial patterns and monitor temporal shifts

in biodiversity, the coral reef projects of the Census of

Marine Life have developed Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) as systematic collecting devices, and they are currently developing mass parallel molecular sequencing capabilities to allow comparative and time-series analyses of indices of invertebrate biodiversity of hard-bottom habitats around

the globe (Brainard et al., 2009). Similar systematic

collecting devices should be employed to assess biodiversity changes in soft-bottom and planktonic communities. Other cost-effective tools for monitoring biological shifts in community structure include passive

Ecological Acoustic Recorders (EARs) (Lammers et al.,

2008; Sueur et al., 2008).

It has already been well established that calcification rates of whole coral reef communities are sensitive to changes in ambient aragonite saturation state

and temperature and that rates of CaCO3 dissolution significantly affect the CaCO3 budgets of these

communities (Ohde and van Woesik, 1999; Silverman et al., 2009; 2007). Thus, in concert with assessing the community structure of both shallow and

deep-sea corals, it is equally important to make measurements of community calcification and dissolution rates. These measurements will establish a baseline for important environmental processes and will

be able to demonstrate the effect of acidification in

situ and in real time using relatively simple, nondestructive methods. Additionally, if the community

metabolism method adds measurements of carbonate chemistry in situ within coral reefs and becomes

a viable part of the monitoring system, community metabolism measurements will provide data on

ocean acidification and its immediate effects within

the water of coral reefs. Changes in the trophic balance of coral reef ecosystems can also be easily discerned by variation in the photosynthesis to respiration ratio, which can be observed using continuous dissolved oxygen measurements (Silverman et al.,
12 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

2007). For critical regions, such as high latitudes and

coastal areas, abundances and distributions of key

taxa should be tracked with sufficient precision and

resolution to detect possible shifts in relation to the

changes in the geochemical parameters. There is an

immediate need for such baseline data on calcifying

organisms in regions that are projected to become

undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the coming decades. Rapid, cost-effective technologies for

quantifying abundances of targeted organisms should

be a central component of an integrated ocean acidification observation network.

Opportunities to examine the carbonate chemistry and ecological impacts of severe ocean acidification in the natural environment are sparse. Certain hydrothermal venting systems, such as the

Maug Caldera in the Northern Mariana Islands, provide a unique opportunity to study the effects of a

low pH, high temperature environment. Water near

the vent site has a temperature of 60◦C, a pH of

6.07, a total alkalinity of 3.56 and aragonite saturation state of 0.25. Investigations of the ecological response of such extreme, but naturally occurring, non-anthropogenically forced environments can

yield valuable information about the future impacts

of ocean acidification.

There is a strong need to assess the impact of anthropogenic increases in CO2 and associated acidification on key benthic and pelagic organisms in

coastal and estuarine systems, such as phytoplankton, sea grasses, calcareous crustose and macro algae (e.g., kelp), molluscs (e.g., clams, oysters, scallops), crustaceans (e.g., krill, crabs, lobsters), and

other invertebrates. Many of these organisms constitute or support commercially important fisheries

and play central roles in the local ecology of these

systems. Long-term, regional baseline surveys, such

as those conducted by NMFS (e.g., CalCOFI along

West Coast, Seamap in the Gulf of Mexico), that monitor changes in distribution and abundance of organisms will provide key information about potential impacts of ocean acidification, especially if done

in concert with close monitoring of the geochemical properties of ocean waters. Additionally, in openocean, coastal, and estuarine environments, emerging molecular tools can be used to better understand the genetic diversity of various populations and

how they are changing with time. These new approaches together with traditional techniques for assessing the composition of biological communities

(e.g., bio-optical sensors and optical plankton imaging systems) can be used to evaluate the response of

organisms and ecosystems to changing ocean chemistry.

1.1.2 Strategy for an observational network

for ocean acidification

1.1.2.1 Repeat surveys of chemical and biological

properties

Most of the sampling principles and strategies that

are being developed for open-ocean and coastal carbon surveys apply to the development of an observational network for ocean acidification. For example,

decadal surveys are extremely useful for determining

basin-scale changes in the aragonite and calcite saturation states over timescales of 10–15 years (Feely

et al., 2008). The sampling plans for the next phase of

the CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program could

effectively provide the required long timescale information for the open ocean. Spatial sampling should

continue to repeat the transect lines carried out in the

Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans, with the Southern Ocean integrated as part of the other basins. The

Arctic is of increasing importance and should be emphasized, adding new transects where appropriate.

We recommend adding additional chemical and biological measurements to the repeat surveys to address ocean acidification issues, such as highly resolved depth distributions and abundances of calcifying plankton, estimates of CaCO3 calcification and

dissolution rates, and other CO2-sensitive processes

as appropriate. For coastal and estuarine environments, a similar sampling strategy as outlined for the

open-ocean carbon measurements is recommended.

These activities will be integrated with ongoing NOAA

ship-based surveys. Underway sampling on research

vessels and Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) could

include the additional pH and carbon parameters

necessary to address ocean acidification and acidification impacts. These data would help establish

large-scale trends in acidification in much the same

way as established basin-scale trends in pCO2 (Checkley, Jr. et al., 2009).

1.1.2.2 Time-series measurements at fixed stations

and on floats and gliders

Carbon and pH sensors on Argo-type systems could

resolve shorter space-time scale variability of the upper ocean more readily than repeat sections, but the

sensor technology must be developed and tested in

the field before it can be implemented on a large

scale. In the mean time, the addition of oxygen

sensors would enhance the biogeochemical relevance

of the Argo program. Time-series measurements on

fixed moorings appear to be a reasonable alterna-
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 13

The Role of the National Estuarine Research Reserve System in Ocean Acidification Research

Determining the impact of rising atmospheric CO2 on near-shore coastal and estuarine systems and the economically

important shellfish industries in these regions is an important focus of NOAA’s OA research. Estuarine systems can

experience a broad range of mineral saturation states as a consequence of drainage basin characteristics, local anthropogenic activities, and biological activity. It is particularly challenging to attribute ecosystem response to OA in these

systems because of large natural variations in mineral saturation states, pCO2, and pH levels, and the interaction with

a multitude of other stressors. In estuaries, in situ respiration contributes most of the CO2 due to the high level of

biological activity which varies spatially and temporally. How rising atmospheric CO2 will affect this natural variability

in estuaries is unknown.

In addition, estuaries represent the complex interface between freshwater rivers and saline, ocean waters. Freshwater

has naturally low alkalinity making it more vulnerable to reduced pH. Some systems can periodically discharge corrosive

freshwater plumes into coastal margins due in part to the mineralogy of the drainage basin (Salisbury et al., 2008). Other

systems can exhibit elevated mineral saturation states due to high-levels of riverine carbonate alkalinity and biological

drawdown of CO2 (Keul et al., 2010). These regions also often experience low oxygen levels (hypoxia) (CENR, 2010)

and the combined stress of low O2 and low pH on organisms could be appreciable.

NOAA has a unique resource which can be leveraged to conduct OA estuarine studies, the National Estuarine Research

Reserve System (http://nerrs.noaa.gov/. As detailed “[It] uses its network of living laboratories to help understand

and find solutions to crucial issues facing America’s coastal communities. [It is] perfectly positioned to study and predict

the effects of climate change on the coasts so that managers can rely on good science as they make decisions about

the use and protection of coastal resources. The Reserve System has developed a plan to engage all of its sectors—

research, education, stewardship and training—in this effort.” All the Reserves currently measure pH as part of the core

System-wide Monitoring Program (SWMP). In some Reserves, deployment capacity needs to be upgraded to include

the capacity for ongoing, in situ deployment. A next step after upgrading will be to build the capacity to incorporate

additional carbonate chemistry parameters (e.g., total dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity) into SWMP.

The NOAA OA research effort will initially augment ongoing measurements at two locations within the NERRS network

to establish them as Sentinel Estuary OA sites. As part of the augmentation, protocols and analyses techniques currently

applied at the sites will be upgraded to meet accuracy, precision and reporting standards needed to monitor OA trends.

Selection of sites will be based on susceptibility to impacts of OA; current measurement suite; infrastructure; and

magnitude of possible economic and social impacts of OA on the local communities. Based on size and importance,

the reserves in Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound are likely initial candidates. A full listing of NERRS sites and current

measurements can be found at (http://cdmo.baruch.sc.edu/).

tive for more limited time-space variability studies.

These studies could be conducted at the Ocean Sustained Interdisciplinary Timeseries Environment observation System (SITES) time-series stations and the

Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites. Timeseries stations are also urgently needed in other

open-ocean and coastal regions. Consequently, new

moored buoys equipped with carbon system sensors for ocean acidification should be added to the

present carbon network. Bio-optical sensors and optical plankton imaging systems should be deployed

to track possible shifts in abundances of key biological functional groups. Seasonal measurements of

calcification rates and other CO2-sensitive processes

not currently measured at time-series sites should

be conducted in order to assess the long-term response of ecosystems to ocean acidification. Figure 1.4 and Tables 1.2–1.4 provide our recommended

distribution of time-series sites based on the global

plans for ocean acidification research and discussions

of what is needed by the Ocean Acidification Interagency Working Group. The coral reef monitoring sites

have a unique label in Figure 1.4 to help distinguish

them from the open-ocean and coastal time-series

sites. As soon as carbon and pH sensors on floats and

gliders are fully tested and deemed ready for largescale deployment, we recommend their implementation into the next phase of the Argo Program.

The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) is

a federal, regional, and private-sector partnership

working to enhance our ability to collect, deliver, and

use ocean information. IOOS moorings deliver data

and information needed to increase understanding of

our oceans and coasts, so decision-makers can take

action to improve safety, enhance the economy, and

protect the environment. The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program will work directly with IOOS to incorpo-
14 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan Table 1.2: Planned open-ocean ocean acidification monitoring sites. Minus signs indicate S latitudes and W longitudes. Climate or Year of Latitude Longitude Site name Basin Ecosystems Deployment Rationale Partner Entities 50.10 −144.80 Papa North Pacific C 2010 fisheries and food webs impacts, sentinel site Univ. Washington 33.00 −122.00 CCE1 North Pacific C 2011 Long-Term Ecological Research site, CalCOFI time-series back to 1950s Scripps Inst. Oceanogr., NSF-funded LTER program 22.70 −158.00 WHOTS North Pacific C 2011 long-term, important time-series at Hawai’ian Ocean Time-Series station Woods Hole Oceanogr. Inst. 32.30 144.50 KEO North Pacific C 2011 key heat transport pathway from W. Equatorial Pacific to N. Pacific via the Kuroshio Current PMEL-Ocean Climate Stations

−20.00 −85.00 Stratus South Pacific C 2011 long time series site in eastern South

Pacific

WHOI

−8.00 165.00 Warm water pool South Pacific C 2011 warm water pool of western equatorial

Pacific, northern end member ofwestern South Pacific

CSIRO (Australia)

−45.00 140.00 SOFS South Indian C 2011 Southern Ocean Site CSIRO/WHOI

−64.20 31.70 BTM North Atlantic C 2012 long-term time series site with better than

monthly shipboard sampling of manyparameters

BIOS

38.50 −65.00 Gulf Stream North Atlantic C 2012 key heat transport pathway from W.

Equatorial Atlantic to N. Atlantic

WHOI

0.00 −125.00 TAO Equatorial Pacific C 2012 monitor changes in equatorial Pacific

upwelling zone, long time-series ofunderway data

NDBC-TAO

0.00 90.00 RAMA—Equator Equatorial Indian C 2012 Indian Ocean dipole study site PMEL-RAMA, India?

−10.00 0.00 PIRATA 5 South Atlantic C 2012 constrain equatorial Atlantic PMEL-PIRATA

29.18 −15.50 ESTOC North Atlantic C 2012 long time series site in eastern Atlantic

with regular shipboard measurements

Spain/Germany

12.00 70.00 RAMA—Arabian North Indian C 2013 unique Arabian sea geochemistry PMEL-RAMA, India?

12.00 90.00 RAMA—Bengal North Indian C 2013 unique Bay of Bengal geochemistry PMEL-RAMA, India?

−42.00 55.00 ARC South Indian C 2013 western boundary current region with

large heat flux

PMEL—Ocean Climate stations?

−50.00 −37.00 Falklands South Atlantic C 2013 western boundary current region with

large heat flux

PMEL—Ocean Climate stations?

49.00 −16.50 Porcupine North Atlantic C 2013 long time biogeochemical study site

including sediment trap work

UK

55.00 −177.00 Bering open basin Arctic C 2014 fisheries and food webs impacts, sentinel

site

PMEL-FOCI

47.27 −57.35 St. Lawrence North Atlantic C 2014 important freshwater influence in N.

Atlantic, vicinity of Labrador Sea

Environment Canada, Dept. Fisheries &

Oceans (Canada)
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 15 Table 1.3: Planned coastal early warning ocean acidification monitoring sites. Minus signs indicate S latitudes and W longitudes. Climate or Year of Latitude Longitude Site name Basin Ecosystems Deployment Rationale Partner Entities 43.08 −70.75 Gulf of Maine Atlantic C 2010 shellfish, river inputs Univ. New Hampshire, NERACOOS 47.95 −124.83 LaPush, Washington Pacific C 2010 upwelling, hypoxic shelf conditions, Columbia River influence NANOOS, Univ. Washington 30.09 −88.77 Northern Gulf of Mexico (Biloxi, MS) Gulf of Mexico C 2010 Mississippi River plume influence Univ. Southern Mississippi, NDBC, GCOOS 31.40 −80.87 Gray’s Reef Atlantic C 2010 distinct chemistry of river inputs in South Atlantic Bight, marine sanctuary Univ. Georgia Athens, NDBC, NMS 34.40 −120.70 CCE2, Point Conception, California Pacific E 2010 important feature in California Current large marine ecosystem, causes upwelling that influences circulation/chemistry in S. Cal. Bight, location of repeat glider and CalCOFI sampling Scripps Inst. Oceanogr. 44.62 −124.53 NH10, Stonewall Banks (Newport, OR) Pacific C 2010 upwelling, hypoxic shelf conditions, historical observations of oxygen, nutrients, plankton composition, OOI cabled observatory to be located here NANOOS, Oregon State Univ., NSF OOI program 41.96 −124.48 Trinidad Head Pacific C 2011 core of California Current upwelling system California State Univ.–San Marcos 52.43 −171.45 Amukta Pass 1 (Aleutians, AK) Gulf of Alaska E 2011 key location reflecting chemistry of North Pacific water entering the Bering and Arctic basins PMEL-FOCI 25.25 −82.22 Everglades National Park, Florida (USF-C17) Gulf of Mexico E 2011 acidic terrestrial inputs associated with groundwater or rivers Univ. South Florida, SECOORA, GCOOS 48.06 −87.78 Lake Superior Great Lakes E 2011 most susceptible of Great Lakes to acidification due to low alkalinity, lowest zebra mussel density GLERL, NDBC, Univ. Wisconsin, GLOS 45.34 −86.41 Lake Michigan Great Lakes E 2011 highest alkalinity so susceptibility should be lowest, highest zebra mussel density GLERL, NDBC, Univ. Wisconsin, GLOS 39.47 −74.25 LEO-15 Atlantic E 2012 long time-series of observations, multi-platform observational focus area (gliders, etc.) Rutgers Univ., NJ Shelf Observing System 27.50 −83.72 Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (USF-C10) Gulf of Mexico E 2012 acidic terrestrial inputs associated with groundwater or rivers Univ. South Florida, SECOORA, GCOOS 26.97 −96.70 Corpus Christi/Port Aransas, Texas Gulf of Mexico E 2012 key location in W. Gulf of Mexico where terrestrial signatures associated with episodic events can be monitored, Mission-Aransas NERR Univ. Texas, NDBC, NERR 58.28 −147.67 FATE-1/GAK-14 (near Kodiak Island, AK) Gulf of Alaska E 2012 interest in fisheries, food web impacts in N. Pacific region, other regular sampling in area PMEL-FOCI, Univ. Alaska Fairbanks 45.35 −82.84 Lake Huron Great Lakes E 2012 high susceptibility to acidification, low zebra mussel density GLERL, NDBC, Univ. Wisconsin, GLOS 43.62 −77.41 Lake Ontario Great Lakes E 2012 lower susceptibility to acidification, higher zebra mussel density GLERL, NDBC, Univ. Wisconsin, GLOS 56.88 −164.06 M2 Bering Sea E 2012 long time-series of biophysical observations, southernmost mooring in series, ice cover averages 10% each winter/spring PMEL-FOCI 62.19 −174.67 M8 Bering Sea E 2012 long time-series of biophysical observations, northernmost mooring in series, ice cover averages 60% each winter/spring PMEL-FOCI 36.61 −74.84 Chesapeake Bay Atlantic E 2013 key area for terrestrial inputs and hypoxia studies on East Coast, several agencies have monitoring programs NDBC?, NERRS, Maryland DNR, Chesapeake Bay Program 35.01 −75.40 Cape Hatteras Atlantic E 2013 key location for characterizing Gulf Stream before it separates from the continental shelf NDBC 29.23 −94.41 Galveston, Texas Gulf of Mexico E 2013 fisheries, shellfish, terrestrial inputs NDBC 37.76 −122.83 off San Francisco Bay Pacific E 2013 enriched nitrogen inputs from SF Bay shown to affect

offshore biogeochemistry

San Francisco State Univ.

42.02 −81.65 Lake Erie Great Lakes E 2013 lower susceptibility to acidification, higher zebra mussel

density

GLERL, NDBC, Univ. Wisconsin, GLOS

71.50 −156.00 Barrow Canyon, Chukchi Sea Arctic E 2013 Arctic area with some background work on carbon

cycling

PMEL-FOCI

35.08 −76.28 Pamlico/Albemarle Sound & Neuse River

estuary

Atlantic E 2015 largest estuary in SE, important shellfisheries and finfish

nursery, very productive lagoonal estuary, RachelCarson Estuarine Reserve, hypoxic/anoxic conditionsand fish kills in Neuse R.

NERR, Univ. North Carolina?
16 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan Table 1.4: Planned coral reef ocean acidification monitoring sites. Minus signs indicate S latitudes and W longitudes. Proposed Climate or Year of NOAA Sponsoring Latitude Longitude Site name Basin Ecosystems Deployment Program/Lab Rationale Partner Entities 21.40 −157.80 CRIMP #2 USA—Pacific E 2010 CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC important ancillary oceanographic and meteorological data, potential for strong metabolic signal, current Pacific OA test-bed Univ. Hawai’i 17.94 −67.05 Cayo Enrique USA/Puerto Rico—Caribbean

E 2010 CRCP/AOML/PMEL important ancillary oceanographic and meteorological data,

potential for moderate metabolic signal, reasonablywell-defined hydrodynamics, current CRCP Atlantic OAtest-bed, represents a Greater Caribbean System

UPRM, USGS, UM,

CarICOOS

32.46 −64.82 Hog Reef Bermuda E 2010 PMEL high-latitude Atlantic coral reef ecosystem, may experience

net-negative calification within a decade, hard coral cover∼30–70%, compliment to Bermuda Atlantic Time-seriesStudy (BATS), potential “early warning” site for GreaterCaribbean reefs

Bermuda Inst. Ocean

Sciences

25.00 −80.37 Florida Keys National

Marine Sanctuary

USA, FL E 2011 CRCP/AOML/PMEL most extensive living coral reef system in N. America and third

largest in the world, easily accessible technology test-bed,nearby moored ADCP station, no-take protected zone withinFKNMS but high exposure to local land-based andrecreational stressors, existing CMAN/ICON station, ongoingmonitoring of coral communities and A. palmatademographics

IOOS, UM, ICON, FKNMS

7.42 151.82 Chuuk Islands Micronesia E 2011 PMEL important coverage of Micronesian community diversity KORDI (Korean Ocean Res.

& Develop. Inst.)

−17.00 −149.50 Moorea Moorea—Pacific E 2012 CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC LTER site, southernmost node of a Pacific latitudinal “transect”

network, single site that offers all major coral reef types,

reefs in excellent condition, active process-orientedstudies/modeling/synthesis efforts

NSF LTER, Richard B. Gump

South Pacific ResearchStation (UCLA, UCBerkeley)

5.00 −161.00 Palmyra Atoll USA—Pacific E 2012 CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC remote Pacific system, considerable coral cover, few

convoluting factors, potential for very strong metabolicsignal, Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument

The Nature Conservancy

23.74 −166.26 French Frigate Shoals USA—PMNM E 2012 remote Pacific system, few convoluting factors,

Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument (PMNM)

CRCP, PMEL, PIFSC

28.22 −177.37 Midway Atoll USA—PMNM E 2012 less scientifically interesting than many sites in PMNM but far

more accessible, OA monitoring station should be located athere until a regional vessel is available

−0.69 −90.66 Galapagos Eastern Tropical Pacific,

Panama

E 2012 lowest saturation states and highest pCO2 in reef system

globally documented here, strong upwelling system, affected

by ENSO, key site for studying thermal impacts of ENSO onreefs, well studied reef fauna since 1970s

Smithsonian Tropical

Research Institute, CharlesDarwin Research Institute

−23.44 151.916 Heron Island Great Barrier Reef E 2013 PMEL recently initiated ARC project to conduct multi-scale analysis

of the vulnerability of the GBR to ocean acidification; site ofmanipulative flume and mesocosm experiments as well asregular field surveys of carbonate chemistry

CSIRO, UQ, Stanford

University, GBRMPA

19.699 −80.06 Bloody Bay Marine Park Little Cayman E 2013 CRCP/AOML/PMEL isolated from continental and anthropogenic influences, some

of the most biologically diverse reef systems in theCaribbean, excellent water quality, 37 coral species, shallowlagoon sites with potential for strong metabolic signal,existing ICON station

Central Caribbean Marine

Institute, Little CaymanResearch Centre, NOAAICON

19.29 166.66 Wake Atoll USA—PRINMN E 2013 represents new geographic area with important connectivity

between Micronesia and Polynesia

CRCP, PMEL, PIFSC

−5.14 150.48 Kimbe Bay Coral Triangle, New Guinea E 2013 very accessible, TNC flagship MPA, strong

community/industry partnership (dive resort)

The Nature Conservancy,

CRCP, PMEL, PIFSC

24.62 −81.10 Dry Tortugas USA—Gulf of Mexico E 2014 CRCP/AOML/PMEL USGS sentinel site for climate change, some of highest

seasonal variability in carbonate chemistry—importantcontrast to the lower latitude Caribbean systems, ResearchNatural Area (RNA) reserve, annual coral monitoring andassessment

USGS, Dry Tortugas

Research Natural AreaRNA, FKNMS, InteragencyS. Florida coral reefevaluation andmonitoring project
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 17 Table 1.4: Continued. Proposed Climate or Year of NOAA Sponsoring Latitude Longitude Site name Basin Ecosystems Deployment Program/Lab Rationale Partner Entities 18.35 −64.98 Tektite, Great Lameshur Bay St. Thomas, USVI E 2014 CRCP/AOML/PMEL coral cover high, opportunity to investigate synergistic effects including coastal runoff, proposed ICON station ICON, Univ. Virgin Islands, Ctr. for Marine and Environmental Studies

−0.61 130.9 Raja Ampat Coral Triangle, Indonesia E 2014 joint conservation area by TNC/CI/WWF, significant pearl

oyster industry there

The Nature Conservancy,

ConservationInternational, WorldWildlife Fund

8.62 −79.07 Saboga Reef ETP, Panama E 2015 CRCP/PMEL/AOML lowest aragonite saturation and highest pCO2 of any coral reef

area documented to date, regular warming disturbances withENSO, long-term ecological monitoring site, MPA

Smithsonian Tropical

Research Institute

20.03 145.23 Maug Caldera Monument USA—CNMI E 2015 CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC hot vent site—a natural laboratory for extreme acidification

chemistry, baseline work already started

−0.37 −160.00 Jarvis Island USA—Pacific E 2015 CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC remote Pacific system with considerable upwelling and

associated fauna, little to zero anthropogenic pressure,potential for very strong metabolic signal, Pacific RemoteIslands Marine National Monument

Coral Reef Ecosystem

Division and PacificRemote Islands MarineNational Monument,CRCP, PMEL, PIFSC

7.48 134.38 Palau Palau, West Pacific E 2015 high diversity, strong political support, strong conservation

ethic, research station there associated with PICRC

Palau International Coral

Reef Center (PICRC)

52.13 −172.42 Seguam Pass (deep-sea

coral)

USA—Pacific/Bering Sea E 2015 EOP/PMEL/AFSC most diverse deep-sea corals in the world, northward flow

through these passes brings N. Pacific water into Bering,carbonate saturation horizons are shoaling, fisheriesresearch can provide ecosystem baseline

28.23 −94.2 Stetson Bank Flower Garden Banks

National MarineSanctuary

E 2016 CRCP/AOML/PMEL healthiest reefs in the Gulf of Mexico, recently completed

NOAA biogeographic survey characterizing the benthic andfish resources, National Marine Sanctuary

National Marine Sanctuary

52.00 −178.00 Western Aleutians (deep-sea

coral)

USA—Pacific/Bering Sea E 2016 EOP/PMEL/AFSC most diverse deep-sea corals in the world, northward flow

through these passes brings N. Pacific water into Bering,carbonate saturation horizons are shoaling, fisheriesresearch can provide ecosystem baseline

28.00 −176.00 Pearl & Hermes Atoll USA—PMNM E 2017* CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC high-latitude coral atoll in the PMNM, part of Pacific

latitudinal ’transect’, well-defined lagoon with good potentialfor strong metabolic signal, baseline work started at Pearland Hermes

Papahanaumokuakea

Marine NationalMonument

25.00 −169.00 Maro Reef USA—NWHI E 2017* CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC submerged high-latitude coral atoll, largest coral reef in the

PMNM, greater abundance and diversity of coral than mostreefs in the NWHI chain (37 stony coral species), baselinecarbonate chemistry work already begun

−14.55 −168.15 Rose Atoll Monument USA—American Samoa E 2017* CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC remote, unimpacted coral reef, reachable by partners in

American Samoa—part of the American Samoa Monument,node for a Pacific latitudinal “transect,” baseline work started

28.41 −178.33 Kure Atoll Monument USA—PMNM E 2017* CRCP/PMEL/PIFSC highest latitude coral atoll in PMNM, essential for constraining

the latitudinal gradients of carbonate chemistry near reefs,northernmost node of a Pacific latitudinal “transect,”well-defined lagoon with good potential for strong metabolicsignal

* A provisional target deployment year has been given because of logistical or technological uncertainty. Should additional funding or logistical/technological capacity become available sooner, the date may be moved up.
18 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Figure 1.4: Planned ocean acidification monitoring sites in open-ocean, coastal ocean, and coral reef regions for time-series

measurements and process studies. The station locations are given in Tables 1.2–1.4.

rate the required carbon and pH sensors at selected

mooring stations to determine the timing and extent

of acidification in coastal waters.

National Estuarine Research Reserves System

(NERRS) is a network of protected areas established

for long-term research, education and stewardship. This partnership program between NOAA and

the coastal states protects more than one million

acres of estuarine land and water, which provides

essential habitat for wildlife; offers educational

opportunities for students, teachers and the public; and serves as living laboratories for scientists.

NERRS has engaged in sustained monitoring of

water quality and weather since 1995, and a subset of the Reserves systemically monitor biological

parameters, such as plankton and submerged and

emergent vegetation. The NERRS System-wide

Monitoring Program can incorporate new parameters important for tracking OA in estuaries. The

NERRS System-Wide Monitoring Program (http:

//www.nerrs.noaa.gov/RCDefault.aspx?ID=18)

measures certain variables systematically across all

NERRS sites, including: pH, conductivity, salinity,

temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, nitrate,

ammonia, ortho-phosphate and chlorophyll a. Very

little research has been done on how the impacts of

ocean acidification might manifest in estuaries and

nearshore coastal areas such as Puget Sound, San

Francisco Bay, and Chesapeake Bay. Partnerships,

such as the NERRS network, are essential to building

a comprehensive observational network for ocean

acidification in coastal estuaries. Additional capabilities within the National Weather Service, such

as the River Forecast Centers, may also contribute

to understanding the effect of freshwater inputs on

ocean acidification in estuaries and nearshore coastal

areas.

1.1.2.3 Satellite-based observations

Direct, in situ measurements of ocean chemistry provide the most accurate means of tracking ocean acidification for the foreseeable future. However, these

in situ measurements are inherently limited in space

and/or time in ways that satellite observations are

not. While satellites do not directly measure ocean

carbonate chemistry, they can provide synoptic observations of a range of physical and optical parameters that allow us to model changes in the distribution of carbonate chemistry within the surface ocean

where no in situ observations are available. Through

the application of a variety of techniques, satellite observations are being applied to upscale and extend

in situ carbonate chemistry measurements, permitting examination on spatial and temporal scales not

practical through in situ observation alone. For example, the carbonate chemistry of predominantly oligotrophic oceanic waters of the Greater Caribbean Re-
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 19

gion has been modeled using empirical relationships

between surface ocean carbonate chemistry, satellite

sea surface temperature, and model derived sea surface salinities (Gledhill et al., 2008). More complex

systems such as those affected by upwelling and significant biological modifications will demand increasingly sophisticated algorithms that combine multiple

satellite data streams to infer processes beyond the

simple thermodynamic forcing that dominates the

variability in the Caribbean. Furthermore, the basinscale effects of OA on certain planktonic calcifiers

(e.g., coccolithophores) can be monitored through the

measurement of their apparent optical properties using satellite remote sensing techniques (e.g., Balch

and Utgoff, 2009).

1.2 Organism response to ocean

acidification (Theme 2)

It is important to determine the potential impacts

of reduced pH and carbonate ion availability on

the living marine resources under NOAA’s purview.

Living marine resources encompass not only commercially important species but the organisms and

ecosystems on which commercially important species

rely through trophic or other ecological interactions.

NOAA has ample expertise in studying and managing fisheries throughout its territorial waters; however, NOAA will also collaborate with academic researchers to address knowledge gaps on species response to ocean acidification and to complement internal efforts. The species to be studied under NOAA’s

Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

vary by region, but the general functional groups are

the same across regions.

Existing studies on organism response to ocean

acidification are listed in Table 1.1. The number

of studies addressing species response is increasing

greatly (Figure 1.2), but basic information is lacking

for many important taxa. Additionally, the effects

of multi-stressor interactions (e.g., temperature, dissolved oxygen, toxics, pathogens) are only in the very

early stages of evaluation. An understanding of potential evolutionary responses by organisms to OA

is also lacking. The incorporation of new genomics

technologies into studies of organismal response to

OA may provide predictive insight into this subject.

The research projects presented in this theme will address these many gaps.

Task 1.2: Conduct ocean acidification experiments on individual species and species assemblages. Create state-of-the-art NOAA facilities for

these experiments which will also be available

for non-NOAA researchers.

1.2.1 Marine phototrophs

Anthropogenic increases in ocean CO2 and concomitant decreases in pH and carbonate ion concentrations will likely impact the growth, survival,

and species abundance of many marine phototrophs,

including phytoplankton, sea grasses, and calcareous

algae. Most marine phototrophs utilize energydependent carbon-concentrating mechanisms to

support their photosynthetic fixation of carbon

(Kaplan and Reinhold, 1999), and increasing oceanic

CO2 levels will decrease the energy needed to drive

this process and increase the supply of CO2 for

photosynthesis. Thus, increasing oceanic CO2 levels

are likely to stimulate the growth rates of at least

some marine phototrophs. Furthermore, rates of

nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria, which regulate

the ocean’s inventory of biologically available fixed

nitrogen, are stimulated by elevated CO2 (Fu et al.,

2008; Hutchins et al., 2007). By benefiting some

species but not others, some species will essentially

become winners and others will become losers,

and consequently increased CO2 is likely to shift

the species composition of marine communities.

The stimulation of nitrogen and carbon fixation

rates by higher oceanic CO2 will have the beneficial

effect of increased CO2 consumption, which will

tend to increase the ocean’s biological CO2 pump.

However, changes in species composition of marine

phototrophs may have unforeseen deleterious effects

on the overall structure and function of marine food

webs.

Elevated CO2 and associated ocean acidification is

likely to have a large impact on calcifying marine algae such as calcareous benthic macroalgae, which

are important in tropical coastal and lagoonal systems, and calcifying marine phytoplankton (e.g., coccolithophores). The effects of ocean acidification on

the latter group may be most important globally, as

coccolithophores are responsible for most of the biogenic formation of calcium carbonate in the world

ocean. Therefore, they play an import role in regulating the alkalinity of ocean waters, and the ability of these waters to absorb CO2 (Dymond and Lyle,

1985). Coccolithophores deposit calcium carbonate
20 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

plates called coccoliths on their surfaces, which have

an unknown biological function. It has been proposed that they help provide a defense against bacterial and viral infection and grazing by zooplankton,

and therefore may serve to decrease mortality rates

(Hamm and Smetacek, 2007). Coccolithophores are

also major producers of the gas dimethyl sulphide,

which influences climate through its critical role in

cloud formation (Charlson et al., 1987). Because of

their abundance and important influences on climate

(Charlson et al., 1987; Dymond and Lyle, 1985), effects of ocean acidification on coccolithophore populations may have profound effects on the future rate

of climate change.

Ocean acidification may have unexpected effects

on growth and species composition of marine phytoplankton communities by influencing the biological availability of the trace metal iron, which limits algal growth in roughly 30% of the world ocean (Coale

et al., 1996). Iron limitation is particularly prevalent

in the Southern Ocean, which plays a critical role in

regulating this ocean’s biological carbon pump. The

biological uptake of iron is dependent on its chemical speciation, which is highly sensitive to seawater

pH (Sunda and Huntsman, 2003; Sunda, 2001). Consequently, decreasing seawater pH from acidification

may have significant effects on iron uptake by phytoplankton, with potential impacts on ocean productivity and the pace of climate change. These effects

must be quantified if we are to construct robust predictive models of oceanic carbon cycling and climate

feedbacks.

Experiments are planned to determine the effect of

elevated CO2 concentrations and associated changes

in pH and carbonate ion levels on the rates of growth

and calcification of key species of calcifying coccolithophores, such as Emiliania huxleyi. Comparative

experiments will be run to measure the effect of elevated CO2 on non-calcifying plankton, including diatoms and dinoflagellates. In addition to open-ocean

species, it will be important to determine the impact

of ocean acidification on harmful algal species, which

are a growing concern along all U.S. continental and

island coasts. Data from these experiments will be incorporated into planktonic ecosystem models to predict the impact of future increases in CO2 on phytoplankton productivity, calcification rates, and biogeochemical cycling of carbon. These models will

also allow for prediction of CO2 impacts on phytoplankton species composition and overall food web

dynamics. Additionally, system-level primary productivity forms the basis for fisheries productivity (Chassot et al., 2007; Ware and Thomson, 2005). Quantifying the effect of ocean acidification on primary producers is critical to maintaining the long-term sustainability of exploited resources.

1.2.2 Coral reef ecosystems

A primary concern with respect to coral reef ecosystems is coral health and their ability to precipitate

calcium carbonate. Any decline in rates of calcification or increase in net dissolution rates is a concern

for the persistence of reef systems. Within U.S. coral

reef ecosystems, rates of accretion on healthy, undisturbed reefs are known to only slightly outpace rates

of reef loss (Glynn and Morales, 1997). Coral reefs in

the past have been able to grow to keep up with sea

level rise. Ocean acidification, by reducing both calcification and net carbonate balance, is likely to reduce the ability of corals to keep up with sea level rise.

Experimental observations beginning in the 1990s reveal a functional relationship between Ωarag (saturation state) and coral calcification rate, e.g., (Anthony

et al., 2008; Borowitzka and Vesk, 1979; Gao et al.,

1993; Gattuso et al., 1998; Kleypas et al., 2006; Marshall and Clode, 2002; Marubini et al., 2001; 2002;

Ohde and Hossain, 2004; Reynaud et al., 2003), suggesting declining levels of calcification will occur with

increasing ocean acidification.

Increasing net dissolution is also a concern. While

the oceanic subtropical surface waters will remain supersaturated with respect to aragonite for several centuries, most reefs are not solely composed of aragonite. Instead much of the reef is comprised of more

soluble high-Mg calcites (Morse et al., 2006). Furthermore, the diurnal amplitude in pCO2(aq) levels within

the reef zone can be 10 times that of the oceanic waters and often exhibit a decrease in overall saturation

state due to calcification and respiration processes. As

a result, there may be periods at night when many

reefs currently exhibit net dissolution rates: for example, Yates and Halley (2006) found that net dissolution

across a range of reef substrates on the Molokai reef

flat, Hawai’i, occurred 13% of the time under presentday conditions. Yates and Halley (2006) also found

that when atmospheric pCO2(air) exceeds about 580

μatm, rates of dissolution of reef sediments are likely

to exceed net rates of calcification. So, while coral

skeletons will likely not dissolve within this century,

the sediments are already dissolving in some reef systems and net dissolution at the reef-scale could occur within this century. Furthermore, recent findings

suggest that the calcium carbonate cementation that

serves to bind reef framework together may be eroded

if Ωarag values fall much below 3.0 (Manzello et al.,

2008). Such effects could compromise reef resiliency
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 21

in the face of other acute threats, such as thermal

stress, diseases, increasing storm intensity, and rising

sea level, (e.g., Silverman et al., 2009). Indeed, in CO2-

enriched waters of the Galapagos Islands, reef structures were completely eroded to rubble and sand in

<10 years following one acute warming disturbance

(i.e., 1982–83 El Niño event: Manzello et al., 2008).

Here, the upwelling of CO2-rich deep waters caused

ambient Ωarag values to be similar to those expected

with a tripling of atmospheric CO2. Beyond the direct

calcification/dissolution concerns there are other effects that need to be considered as well. For example,

recent findings suggest that high CO2 may act synergistically to lower thermal thresholds for coral bleaching (Anthony et al., 2008). In addition, there is evidence that OA inhibits the rate of recruitment and

growth of crustose coralline algae, which could cause

significant changes in benthic community structure

in coral reef habitats (e.g., Kuffner et al., 2007).

Research has shown that the aragonite saturation

horizons are shoaling; therefore it has been projected

that the first reefs to be affected by ocean acidification

are likely to be deep-sea coral ecosystems (Cairns,

2007; Guinotte et al., 2006) and possibly intermediatedepth mesophotic coral ecosystems (characterized by

the presence of light-dependent corals and associated communities typically found at depths ranging

from 30 m to over 150 m in tropical and subtropical regions). Among shallow water coral reef ecosystems in U.S. jurisdictions, those in the Northwestern Hawai’ian Islands are likely to be the first to

pass below levels where net calcium carbonate balance can be maintained. It has been hypothesized

that mesophotic coral ecosystems, such as those located in the Au’au channel in Hawai’i, may serve as

a potential refuge for shallow-water coral populations

predicted to be impacted by ocean warming (Puglise

et al., 2009). While this may be true, concerns are now

being raised that the deeper range of these ecosystems may be among the first to be impacted by ocean

acidification (Sabine et al., 2004).

Continuation and augmentation of a Coral Reef

Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network is a highpriority of the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program. Each observatory within the network involves the autonomous measurements of a suite of

chemical, physical, and meteorological parameters.

These measurements will allow the determination of

community-scale metabolic processes (net calcification, photosynthesis, and respiration) through the application of a Eulerian flow respirometry method as

adopted for coral reefs (Barnes et al., 2001; Gattuso

et al., 1999; 1996; 1993; Griffith et al., 1987; Marsh and

S. V. Smith (editors), 1978). The basic approach would

require the deployment of dual autonomous carbonate chemistry moorings (e.g., enhanced MAPCO2) upstream and downstream of selected forereefs that exhibit unidirectional flow and near-reef studies across

a broad latitudinal scale. By combining these measurements with current flow measurements of water

mass transit times, one is able to compute a sustained

time-series of aragonite saturation state, track reef

metabolic performance, and derive robust estimates

of annual net rates of reef accretion. The Coral Reef

Ocean Acidification Monitoring Network will provide

the enhanced characterization of the short-term temporal and spatial variability in carbonate chemistry

within coral reef environments that is necessary to

assign critical thresholds for adverse effects of ocean

acidification.

1.2.3 Shellfish and deep-sea corals

Experiments will be conducted, on a regional basis,

to determine the physiological responses of economically and ecologically important species of calcifying

organisms to elevated CO2 levels and associated decreases in pH and carbonate ion concentrations. The

organisms to be examined include lobsters, crabs,

oysters, clams, mussels, scallops, shrimp, and deepsea corals. Experiments will focus on larval and juvenile stages as these are likely to be the most sensitive to adverse OA effects. Parameters measured in

these experiments should include survival and rates

of growth rates, larval metamorphosis, and calcification. The data from these studies will be incorporated into ecosystem and bioeconomic models to

forecast impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems

and resource-dependent communities.

1.2.4 Fish

The direct and indirect responses of fish species to

ocean acidification will be studied, and the results of

this work incorporated into ecosystem models to forecast ecosystem impacts. Ocean acidification could

impact the recruitment dynamics of fishes through either direct physiological effects or indirect food web

effects. Experiments will be conducted to examine

both the direct physiological and indirect food web

effects of ocean acidification on the early life stages

of a commercially important fish species (e.g., walleye pollock) and other important forage species (e.g.,

herring).
22 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

1.2.5 Other species

The group categorized here as “other species” is very

large and likely includes species that are both vulnerable to OA and of significant ecological and economic importance. These include echinoderms (e.g.,

sea urchins and sea stars) and crustaceans (e.g., crabs,

krill, etc.), as well as more cryptic but locally important groups such as bryozoans. The regional sections

of this plan (Chapters 2–7) provide a discussion of

species of research focus in the different geographic

areas.

1.2.6 Protected species

In addition to the direct impacts of ocean acidification on corals, shellfish, and finfish, many protected

vertebrates may also be directly affected by ocean

acidification. For example, Hawai’ian monk seals are

the most critically endangered marine mammal living entirely within U.S. waters. Among many important stressors, monk seals, as well as green sea turtles, are threatened by significant habitat loss as sea

level rise erodes away many of the small sandy nesting and breeding beaches in the Northwest Hawai’ian

Islands. As the beaches are composed entirely of coral

fragments and calcareous algae, ocean acidification

impacts on sand production and transport dynamics could have significant impacts on the survival of

these threatened species. Reduction of seawater alkalinity could eventually result in net dissolution of

these beaches, potentially devastating the land habitats essential for supporting these already threatened

species. Both monk seals and green sea turtles already face significant habitat limitations. Similarly,

at least 46 species of cetaceans are known in the Pacific Islands region, though population assessments

are severely limited. One of the key threats facing

cetaceans, which actively and extensively use sonar

for feeding and communicating, is acute or chronic

increases in ocean noise. Recent studies have demonstrated that sound propagation in the ocean increases

with decreasing pH (Hester et al., 2008; Ilyina et al.,

2010), which suggests a noisier ocean and potential

impacts, such as increased strandings, to cetacean

populations in the Pacific Islands region. Similar impacts might be expected for marine mammals and

birds in the other five regions.

A large number of tropical corals in the Pacific

and Caribbean are currently under consideration by

NOAA for listing as threatened or endangered under

the Endangered Species Act, largely because of threats

from climate change and acidification. This is the

first listing consideration where ocean acidification

is thought to be among the primary threats. Other

species that are already listed under the ESA for which

OA is a factor include white and black abalone (Haliotis sorenseni and H. cracherodii) and the previously

listed elkhorn and staghorn coral species (Acropora

palmata and A. cervicornis).

1.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem

Models (Theme 3)

Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) that utilize biogeochemical parameterizations have been

used to assess the past, present, and future states of

ocean acidification (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; 2005;

Orr et al., 2005; Cao and Caldeira, 2008; Gehlen et al.,

2007). Because OCGMs were established as coarseresolution models, processes in coastal and estuarine systems are not properly represented in most of

the current model versions. Nevertheless, the models

have been useful for identifying regions of high vulnerability to ocean acidification, such as the Southern Ocean and the subarctic Pacific (Orr et al., 2005).

The data from repeat hydrographic surveys and timeseries measurements provide an excellent means of

testing and evaluating model outputs. For coastal

and estuarine environments, higher-resolution biogeochemical models will need to be developed and

tested. Furthermore, in order to address ocean acidification impacts on organisms, ecosystem models

will need to be improved to include responses and

feedbacks between lower and higher trophic levels

of the marine food web, which have implications for

ecosystem structure and function. An integrated approach employing both a detailed observational network and high-resolution physical-biogeochemicalecosystem models are required for coastal regions

and estuaries.

Task 1.3.1: Develop regional biogeochemical

models coupled to global carbon cycle models

to predict local changes in carbon chemistry at

multiple temporal scales.

Future atmospheric CO2 levels, which influence

ocean pH, will depend on many factors, but anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are

chief among these. A global energy-economic growth

model (Dalton et al., 2008) will be used to project CO2

emissions from fossil fuels. An earth system model
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 23

of intermediate complexity (Cao et al., 2007) will take

fossil fuel emissions from the economic model as input, track baseline greenhouse gas emissions from

other sources, and project atmospheric CO2 levels

and changes in ocean pH. Assumptions in the scenarios about future technological and demographic

change will be based on updates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions.

Task 1.3.2: Develop regional ecological and bioeconomic models coupled to regional biogeochemical models to predict local changes in

ecosystem, food web, and economic interactions.

A diverse array of species and a variety of trophic

levels are expected to experience direct effects of OA

(see section 1.2). Ecosystem modeling will be required to estimate how these individual species effects will impact all of the species interacting in complex ecological food webs. The ecosystem models

used to explore the effects of OA will largely be developed from models capable of examining multiple

ecosystem stressors, such as fishing, thermal stress,

and nutrient additions.

1.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

Human dimensions activities include the development of a process for deciding what to do about

ocean acidification. As described in the introduction,

based on current understanding, management options for dealing with acidification may be somewhat

limited. However, there will be choices about whether

to reduce CO2 emissions, how to confront other stressors to the marine system, how to prepare communities for ecosystem changes, whether to implement

spatial or temporal fisheries changes, etc. Making

these decisions will require consideration of ecological predictions, the value of ecosystem services, and

the economic and social costs of proposed actions.

1.4.1 Bio-economic models

Task 1.4.1: Estimate anticipated changes to

ecosystem services as a consequence of ocean

acidification and evaluate alternative management options.

The economic consequences of OA will depend on

the combined adaptation of marine ecosystems and

human resource management efforts. For example, in

2006, shellfish and crustaceans provided 50% of the

U.S. $4 billion domestic commercial harvest value in

the U.S. Processing, wholesale, and retail activities led

to sales of U.S. $69.5 billion, contributing U.S. $35 billion in value added to the U.S. gross national product,

and providing an estimated 70,000 jobs (Fabry et al.,

2008). Ocean acidification-driven declines in commercial shellfish and crustacean harvests from the

present day to 2060 could decrease U.S. primary commercial revenues by U.S. $860 million–$14 billion, depending on CO2 emissions, discount rates, biological

responses, and fishery structure. This estimate excludes (1) losses from coral reef damage and possible

fishery collapses if OA pushes ecosystems past ecological tipping points (Cooley and Doney, 2009) and

(2) the benefits of marine resources that extend to

ecosystem services not directly monetized, including

beaches, coastal protection, and cultural considerations (e.g., traditional harvest activities, Moberg and

Folke, 1999).

Bio-economic models will be developed for and applied in each of the regions to address how changes

in ecosystem services will impact communities and

economies. The structure of the proposed models will

vary by region and application. Many will incorporate results from the experiments on species response

to ocean acidification (Theme 2). In addition, results

from ecosystem models that consider ocean acidification will be used to test the impacts of different decision rules for fishing effort.

1.4.2 Mitigation and adaptation strategies

Task 1.4.2: Test mitigation approaches under

laboratory and field conditions. Develop adaptation strategies.

At least two possible local mitigation methods have

been proposed to counter the effects of ocean acidification: (1) sediment buffering, and (2) electrochemical deposition. With the sediment buffering

approach, calcium carbonate from ground bivalve

shells or limestone would spread over the existing

sediments to alter the saturation state of the local

benthic environment (Green et al., 2009). Electrochemical deposition is a method developed to create

artificial reefs by running an electric current though

metal structures placed in the ocean (Goreau et al.,

2004; Hilbertz, 1979). The electric current alters lo-
24 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

cal saturation state and could potentially provide a

local means to mitigate ocean acidification. Neither

method is likely to be practical for mitigation at large

geographic scales.

Social scientists will conduct socioeconomic vulnerability assessments at regional-to-local scales to

evaluate of the degree of societal dependence on

ecosystem services affected by OA. Such information

will be used to inform adaptive management strategies that promote social resiliency and may require

adapting local/regional policies. Adaptation strategies might include (1) educating communities about

how ocean acidification may impact the marine and

Great Lake resources on which they rely, and (2) helping communities utilize alternative, less vulnerable

resources. For instance, certain indigenous communities may rely on vulnerable species for subsistence

or cultural traditions. Preparing these communities

for changing population stocks will be critical. Development and application of decision-support frameworks are also needed to improve proactive management actions and transparently incorporate the considerable uncertainty that exists in all of the input

parameters, including those on how ecosystem services will be impacted by ocean acidification. Management decisions related to ocean and lake acidification should also be incorporated into new coastal and

marine spatial planning efforts for two reasons: acidification may (1) require alterations in how and where

humans obtain benefits from the sea and Great Lakes

and (2) drive demand for new ocean and lake uses,

such as renewable energy projects.

1.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

Task 1.5.1: Develop data and information tools

for evaluating the consequences of ocean acidification to create more effective management

strategies.

The data management strategy that will support data

synthesis for ocean acidification studies must address a number of heterogeneous elements. It must

bring together the outputs of global networks, such as

CLIVAR/CO2, Argo, and OceanSITES with new coastal

platforms and surveys. It must bring together physical, chemical, and biological observations that differ widely in character, and datasets both recent and

historical. It must ensure that detailed metadata are

captured along with the observations. Constraining

the uncertainties in observations will be essential for

successful synthesis, so the data management procedures must ensure that uniform quality control procedures are applied. It must distinguish versions of data

at several stages of calibration and quality control.

The timely release of synthesis products will depend

upon timely access to many independently managed

sources of data.

No single data management system can address

this diversity of requirements; the data management

strategy must necessarily involve coordination among

a significant number of distinct systems. Where the

dynamics of the ocean play a strong role, as is the case

for physical and chemical properties of sea water, the

data management strategy will be patterned after the

concepts that have proven successful in Global Ocean

Observing System (GOOS)—data assembly centers

(DACS) feeding into one or more Global Data Assembly Center (GDAC). DACs provide the level of regional or institutional independence that is needed

to address the deployment and management of platforms. A national DAC (analogous to GDAC) can provide the higher level of integration necessary for synthesis. Where the dynamics of the ocean do not so

dominate the data synthesis, as in regional benthic biology and ecosystem studies, greater independence of

DACs will be sufficient.

Several data centers currently provide data management services for particular types of hydrography

data and biogeochemical data. We recommend establishing these and other centers as ocean acidification DACs with agreed sets of policies and data standards to govern their operations. We also propose to

develop a single national ocean acidification information center (NDAC) that will serve as a central repository, the locus for secondary data QC and synthesis

and the communication and coordination hub for the

DACs. This NDAC will also develop new strategies for

archiving and serving ecological response data to facilitate the synthesis of information across a range of

species and ecosystems.

The NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification

Research Plan will need to continually provide data

products, indices, publications, and data synthesis

activities and products. Data synthesis activities

should include standardizing and merging of basinand global-scale data sets, synthesis with data from

other platforms and model outputs, and integrated

synthesis reports. The synthesis process should include: science and technical workshops; product

development workshops; and international synthe-
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 25

sis meetings. An international program on ocean

acidification would provide the necessary framework

for producing coordinated global basin-wide and

regional-scale data products and synthesis reports on

a regular basis, and provide the right forum to provide integrated synthesis products to resource managers and policymakers.

1.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Task 1.6: Implement an education and outreach program to communicate the science and

ecosystem consequences of ocean acidification

to the public and stakeholder communities.

The NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan is designed to engage researchers, policymakers, teachers, and the public, and thus will require skilled and dedicated effort operating alongside

the research program. Emphasis should be placed on

engaging stakeholder support for and participation in

marine ecosystem conservation. Examples of education and outreach activities include: workshops and

training programs with constituents to provide internet access and orientation to current research findings and data; planned development and distribution

of educational materials and displays; fostering local

community involvement in conservation and restoration projects; and hosting two-way discussions with

stakeholders to improve mutual understanding of resource needs and management goals.

In order to foster collaborative planning across the

range of ocean acidification engagement activities

and programs, the ocean acidification engagement

strategy has the following objectives:

• Continue to develop and improve NOAA’s Ocean

and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan to

ensure integration across NOAA’s line offices;

• Be responsive to national ocean acidification issues raised by NOAA leadership, stakeholders

and general public that require integrated education and outreach activities across the agency;

• Serve as a mechanism for coordination of education and outreach activities and information exchange from the laboratories to NOAA leadership

and outside communities; and

• Ensure the development and incorporation of

ocean acidification assessment and adaptation

policies within NOAA line offices and with NOAA

partners.

1.6.1 Education and outreach

This plan for ocean acidification research and monitoring includes education and outreach activities to

improve the public’s understanding of the issue. A

well-informed public will support government research and management plans and energize communities to take the necessary actions to mitigate

ocean acidification’s causes. The FOARAM Act of 2009

calls for educational and public outreach opportunities to improve the understanding of current scientific knowledge of ocean acidification and its impacts

on marine resources. The NOAA Office of Education,

the National Sea Grant Program, the Climate Program

Office, the Coral Reef Conservation Program, and the

National Marine Sanctuaries Program can play integral roles in meeting FOARAM mandates by developing an increased awareness of the causes and potential effects of ocean acidification on our coast and

ocean ecosystems.

For example, NOAA’s Competitive Education Grants

Program provides funding to an array of educational

organizations and institutions that use innovative

technologies, such as Science on the Sphere, to reach

out to millions of people across the country on NOAArelated issues, including ocean acidification. The

NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program, along with

Estuarine Reserves Division, is leading the development of an ocean acidification educational module,

consisting of five scalable lesson plans and a dedicated web interface for both teachers and students,

using field data and near-real-time data on several

parameters relating to the study and monitoring of

ocean acidification. Educators nationwide will be

trained in the use of this module through our partnership with the National Science Teachers Association

and other partners. Collaboration with the Climate

Program Office and the NOAA Climate Services Portal will also be instrumental in meeting the FOARAM

mandates and increasing public education and outreach on ocean acidification. The National Marine

Sanctuaries and National Estuarine Research Reserves

can also serve as sentinel sites, not only for research

and monitoring, but also as places communities go to

learn. Robust primary, secondary, and adult education programs exist at most sanctuaries and NERRS

sites, reaching thousands of students and members

of the public each year. Through at-school, in the

field, and visitor center programs, as well as community lecture series and teacher workshops, sanctuary

and NERRS staff and volunteers reach a large and diverse audience. In addition to school programs and

curricula, a variety of other outreach and education

activities exist at sanctuary sites.
26 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Outreach goals would include developing an information delivery system where ocean acidification

data and current research activities within each region would be made available to scientists, managers, educators, stakeholders, and interested citizens

through a web portal and various internet resources.

The first steps to producing an ocean acidification education and outreach plan will be:

• Identifying target audiences;

• Determining appropriate programs and products

for each audience;

• Developing a comprehensive needs assessment

to education and outreach programming;

• Matching ocean acidification needs with existing

education and outreach activities; and

• Developing innovative approaches for community involvement.

1.6.2 Communications

A major component of NOAA’s Ocean and Great Lakes

Acidification Research Plan will be the communication of research results, mitigation and adaptation

strategies, and other ocean acidification products and

services to the news media, government officials,

stakeholders, and the public. This will be accomplished by the Ocean Acidification Program Office

working in collaboration with the regional Sea Grant

Offices, the National Marine Sanctuaries and NERRS

Programs, other federal and state agencies, and the

private sector. A web site will be established as a resource for information exchange and data delivery.

1.7 Enabling Activities

Key components of any scientific program are the

enabling activities that facilitate its execution. This

is particularly true for ocean acidification research,

which is rapidly developing into a cross-matrix,

multi-line office program with many facets. The following enabling activities are required to efficiently

reach the stated goals and address the hypotheses

that are in this research plan.

1.7.1 Program office

The structure and function of the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program Office are given in Table 1.5. The

Program Director will provide overall direction for the

program and will initially be supported by a staff of 2–

3 persons. The Program Director will be responsible

for coordinating all of NOAA’s ocean acidification activities, and development of an implementation plan

for NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program will be one of

the Director’s first priorities. He/she will be guided by

the objectives outlined in this research plan and the

National Academy of Sciences report, “Development

of an Integrated Science Strategy for Ocean Acidification Monitoring, Research, and Impacts Assessment.”

He/she will be advised by an Executive Committee

consisting of scientific experts and program managers

from each of the line offices, the Program Director,

and the NOAA member of the Interagency Working

Group on ocean acidification.

Aside from the core activities of the office, it will

also actively strive to maintain the preeminence of

NOAA in ocean acidification research through sponsorship of workshops ranging from small technical

workshops to wider-ranging synthesis and forwardlooking meetings. The program office will serve as the

nucleus to guide and document the need for future

observations and research by keeping track of developments in the ocean acidification research and the

results of the sponsored activities to date. This will be

accomplished by facilitating synthesis activities, publishing reports from meetings and workshops, and

maintaining an active web presence.

1.7.2 Technology development

A deficiency in ocean acidification research is specific

instrumentation for continuous autonomous monitoring in the field. This holds true specifically for the

measurement of inorganic carbon species impacting

the ocean biota, but also for the bulk and specific indicators of ecological response. In particular, while

autonomous surface measurement capabilities for pH

and pCO2 on buoys and other platform are commercially available, promising methods for subsurface measurements, including in the benthos across

a range of depths and habitats, are still under development. To constrain the inorganic carbon parameters to the precision and accuracy necessary to assess

spatial and temporal variability of ocean acidification

and its impacts, total alkalinity and/or dissolved inorganic carbon measurement capabilities are also required. Several promising developmental efforts are

underway but require continued resources and fieldtesting. Field deployments are often lacking in funded

development efforts. In addition to new instrumentation, adaptation of established instruments for ocean

acidification research is necessary. This includes increased precision, accuracy, and sample throughput
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 27

Table 1.5: Structure and functions of the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program Office.

Duties and Responsibilities

• Execute the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program in accordance with the NRC Panel Report and the

FOARAM Act of 2009

• Serve as the focal point of all NOAA Ocean Acidification activities including:

A. Program Development

• Work with Legislative Affairs to brief Congress

• Work through the budget process to build the program for the future, writing alternatives, working

across line offices and programs

• Coordinate ocean acidification activities with other federal agencies via the Joint Subcommittee

on Science and Technology (JSOST) Ocean Acidification Interagency Working Group

• Coordination of ocean acidification cruise and experimental activities within NOAA

B. Record Keeping on Program Progress

• Write and track budget narratives, working with line office (LO) budget staff

• Write and track the program, quad charts and quarterly reporting

• Write and track performance measures

C. Communications

• Communicate with implementation committee to set priorities and direction for program

• Management of personnel in the program office

• Point of contact for line office planning, communications, prepare materials for Congress, budget

preparation, and reporting

• Point of contact for NOAA on ocean acidification issues and serve as interagency representative

for discrete samples in laboratory and research ship

settings. Adaptation of novel platforms such as gliders, AUVs, drifters, and autonomous surface vehicles

to accommodate sensors for ocean acidification research is also desired.

1.7.3 Best practices methods

Proper protocol in executing ocean acidification

studies is essential. The European Project on

OCean Acidification (EPOCA) has established a

best practices guide for ocean acidification research that will be adopted for the NOAA work

(http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/

Best-Practices-Guide/). However, as outlined in

several chapters of this report, best practices are an

evolving activity such that support for guide updates

and working groups are essential. As stated in the

best practices guide’s chapter on the carbon dioxide

system in seawater:

“Additional efforts are required to document procedures effectively and to establish a community-wide

quality assurance scheme for each technique. Such a

scheme will involve:

• Writing appropriate Standard Operating Procedures for the techniques in use,

• Inter-laboratory comparison exercises to assess

the various figures of merit for each method

(trueness and precision),

• Regular use of certified reference materials to assist in the quality control,

• Regular laboratory performance testing using

blind samples,”

• Working collaboratively with other federal agencies to ensure that high-quality standards and

reference materials are made available to the scientific community.

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program must take the

U.S. lead in such efforts and assure each of the regional NOAA labs engaged in ocean acidification activities are trained in the best practices.
28 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

1.7.4 Centers of expertise for data quality

assurance

The current analytical capacities and expertise in carbon system dynamics, as it pertains to ocean acidification, are not sufficient in most NOAA and academic labs. Fortunately, several NOAA research labs

have acquired personnel with appropriate expertise

and instrumentation to perform key measurements

for ocean acidification as part of their decades’ long

involvement in the global ocean CO2 survey. These

laboratories will provide analytical services, lead efforts to continue best practices, and train personnel

in the field in proper protocols and analysis. They will

also serve as a nexus for design of perturbation studies to predict response of organisms to future anticipated CO2 levels. They will serve mainly as quality

control and training centers.

1.7.5 Data management

A lesson learned from previous carbon programs is

that data management must be an integral part of the

program from the onset. The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program will advocate an open and rapid dissemination of all data to the community at large. The

broad scope of the efforts ranging from global monitoring of ocean acidification trends to bench-top incubation studies makes data management challenging. Also, to take full benefit from the multi-agency

collaborations in ocean acidification, the data management activities should cover all interagency ocean

acidification activities. The NOAA Ocean Acidification

Program will coordinate and advocate QC procedures

as well as standards and policies for data interchange.

A National DAC for physical, and biogeochemical

measurements will need to be established. At the

distributed DACs some center functions will need to

be augmented particularly for coordinated management and dissemination of the data and meta-data

from perturbation studies. Well-defined service interfaces and a user-friendly web portal will disseminate

data and generate visualization products in a uniform

manner.

1.7.6 Stakeholder interactions

Changes in ocean chemistry in response to ocean

acidification are anticipated to impart a suite of

primary and secondary effects from species to

ecosystem-levels that will affect a broad range of

human communities dependent upon the ecosystem services they provide. Locally, communities that

directly depend on affected ecosystems for sustenance, livelihood, and coastal protection will need

to be proactive in preparing for or mitigating, where

possible, the effects of ocean acidification. Policy

makers and managers responsible for marine natural resource management, environmental regulation,

coastal and marine spatial planning, and energy policy will need to incorporate ocean acidification as a

consideration to long-term planning and legislation.

The private sector dependent upon impacted living

marine resources that could include finfish, shellfish,

and aquaculture need to be apprised of the potential effects of ocean acidification to their industries.

Conservation groups, NGOs, and the public have a

need to be informed by the best science with regard

to the potential consequences of ocean acidification.

To meet these needs, a robust two-way interaction

between stakeholders and experts in ocean acidification is essential for a well-directed program. NOAA

is fortunate to have established links with the public through the outreach efforts of the National Marine Sanctuaries, ICCS Regional Associations, and Sea

Grant Programs. Resources are required to produce

materials and outreach activities pertaining to ocean

acidification. A dedicated effort must be established

with guidance of the program office to quantify the

socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification, particularly as it pertains to fisheries and coral reefs. Accurate assessment of the impacts will be the cornerstone for justification of allotting resources for continued monitoring and research, as well as assessing

the economic feasibility of mitigation approaches.

1.8 Interagency and International

Cooperation

1.8.1 Interagency cooperation

The United States Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (JSOST) provides for the coordination of science and technology across multiple federal agencies. As part of the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Act of 2009, JSOST

is designated as the subcommittee that will coordinate federal activities on ocean acidification. Under this plan, JSOST has established the Interagency

Working Group on Ocean Acidification (IWGOA) to

develop the strategic research and monitoring plan

to guide federal research on ocean acidification. This

plan would include: (1) assessing of the potential im-
Chapter 1. Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program 29

pacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms and

marine ecosystems; (2) developing adaptation and

mitigation strategies to conserve marine organisms

and ecosystems exposed to ocean acidification; (3)

facilitating communication and outreach opportunities with nongovernmental organizations and members of the stakeholder community with interests in

marine resources; (4) coordinating the United States

federal research and monitoring program with research and monitoring programs and scientists from

other nations; and (5) establishing an ocean acidification information exchange to make information on

ocean acidification developed through or utilized by

the interagency ocean acidification program accessible through electronic means, including information

which would be useful to policymakers, researchers,

and other stakeholders in mitigating or adapting to

the impacts of ocean acidification. Interagency partners include: the National Science Foundation, the

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the

Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Fish and

Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Minerals Management Service, the Department of the

Navy, and the Department of State.

1.8.2 International cooperation

International cooperation will be coordinated

through the Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and

Ecosystem Research (IMBER) and Surface Ocean–

Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Working Group

on Ocean Acidification. This international group

has two main goals: (1) coordinate international

research efforts in ocean acidification; and (2) undertake synthesis activities in ocean acidification at

the international level. Two members of the U.S.

Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification

are also members of the IMBER/SOLAS Working

Group on Ocean Acidification and will carry out the

coordination activities between the two groups.

1.9 Expected Outcomes

The NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan is designed to identify and monitor global

and local-scale ecosystem changes resulting from

ocean acidification. The expected outcomes of this

research include: (1) a comprehensive evaluation

and characterization of the threat ocean acidification poses to NOAA-managed ecosystems and the

dependent living marine resources; (2) the monitoring capacity to quantify and track ocean acidification

and resolve its direct and indirect ecological impacts

within oceanic, coastal, and estuarine ecosystems

and their NOAA-managed living marine resources; (3)

a mechanistic understanding of direct and indirect

(e.g., via food webs) impacts of ocean acidification

on regional species and ecosystems that will enable

the development of accurate ecological and socioeconomic forecasting; and (4) identification of useable adaptation strategies for severely impacted marine ecosystems. Specifically, these outcomes will include:

• A chemical/biological monitoring protocol designed to identify and track critical levels of

ocean acidification within selected habitats (e.g.,

carbonate mineral saturation state within coral

reef ecosystems);

• An improved ocean acidification forecasting capability that accounts for local-scale ancillary effects on carbonate chemistry (e.g., geology, hydrography, terrestrial/ground water inputs, and

biota) and provides stakeholders with the capacity to proactively and appropriately respond to

ocean acidification at the regional-scale;

• A regional contribution to a national database of

ocean acidification monitoring data and scientific results;

• Adaptive management tools and requisite scientific knowledge for understanding and responding to ocean acidification in support of

ecosystem-based management;

• National web-accessed resource for data and information on ocean acidification.

2. NOAA Alaska Region Ocean Acidification

Research Plan

Michael F. Sigler, Robert J. Foy, Mark Carls,

Michael Dalton, Lisa B. Eisner, Kris Holderied,

Thomas P. Hurst, Joseph F. Morado, Phyllis

Stabeno, and Robert P. Stone

2.0 Ocean Acidification in the

Alaska Region

The North Pacific Ocean is a sentinel region for

signs of ocean acidification. Corrosive waters reach shallower depths more so there than

in any other ocean basin, especially in Alaska, and

so impacts of ocean acidification on marine calcifiers will likely occur earlier there than in many other

places. Waters below the CaCO3 saturation horizon

are corrosive to calcifying organisms. The CaCO3 saturation horizon is relatively shallow in the North Pacific Ocean and is projected to reach the surface of

the North Pacific Ocean during this century (Orr et al.,

2005). At that point, a wide range of North Pacific

species will be exposed to corrosive waters.

Alaska’s marine ecosystems are highly responsive to

shifts in climate (e.g., Hare and Mantua, 2000; Hollowed et al., 2001; Connors et al., 2002; Hunt, Jr. et al.,

2002; Moore et al., 2003). At high-latitude cold oceans,

two other climate-related effects may act synergistically with ocean acidification effects: loss of sea

ice and ocean warming. Two of the four Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) within the Alaskan complex

(Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska) have

experienced documented regime or phase shifts in

community organization and productivity related to

changing climate (Anderson and Piatt, 1999; Ciannelli

et al., 2005; Grebmeier et al., 2006; Litzow et al., 2006;

Litzow and Ciannelli, 2007; Mueter and Litzow, 2008).

Three of the four LMEs are extremely susceptible to

loss of sea ice and all four of the LMEs are susceptible

to the impacts of ocean acidification. General circulation models predict that the largest changes in global

temperatures will occur at high latitudes, and such

change has already begun on both land and in the

oceans surrounding Alaska (ACIA, 2004; Stabeno and

Overland, 2001). At risk are Alaska’s seafood production, the recovery of endangered and threatened marine species, the living marine resources that nourish

and provide continuity of Alaska’s native cultures, and

natural resources that support Alaska’s large tourism

industry. Possible consequences of predicted ocean

pH changes may be particularly acute in the North

Pacific Ocean and especially Alaskan waters.

2.1 Developing an Ocean

Acidification Monitoring

Network (Theme 1)

Task 2.1: Develop and implement program for

monitoring carbon-cycle-related oceanographic

parameters off Alaska.

Ocean pH measurements of Alaska’s seas are sparse.

Few measurements have been collected in the Bering

Sea, which is the source of about 40% of U.S. fisheries

catch. A few studies in this region have documented

waters impacted by ocean acidification in the Gulf of

Alaska. University of Alaska scientists measured calcium carbonate concentrations at a cross-shelf transect (GAK line, approximately 147◦W) in 2008. Continental slope water was undersaturated for aragonite below 250 m in May 2008 and 200 m in September 2008 (Figure 2.1). We propose spatially and temporally comprehensive coastal and oceanic monitoring of ocean carbon chemistry (saturation state, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity), including continuous monitoring of seawater intakes at coastal laboratories and oceanographic moorings as well as periodic monitoring during dedicated oceanographic surveys.

31
32 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Alaska Region Description

The Alaska region covers 842,000 square nautical miles and produces about half the fish caught in U.S. waters.

The Alaskan ecosystem complex is comprised of four large marine ecosystems (LMEs): Gulf of Alaska, East Bering

Sea/Aleutian Islands, Chukchi Sea, and Beaufort Sea. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanographic conditions affect the

productivity of the LMEs. The region’s cold, nutrient-rich waters support a biologically diverse ecosystem, including a

number of commercially important fisheries for crab, shrimp, scallops, walleye Pollock, Pacific cod, rockfishes, halibut,

and salmon (pink, sockeye, chum, Coho, and Chinook). Marine fisheries of Alaska provide almost 50% of the nation’s

seafood harvest, and this harvest is important to our balance of trade with other countries. The Bering Sea is directly

or indirectly the source of over 25 million pounds of subsistence food for Alaska residents, primarily Alaska Natives in

small coastal communities (Bering Ecosystem Study, 2004). Alaska’s nearly 44,000 miles of coastline constitute about

two-thirds of the total U.S. coastline and support a wide variety of habitats and user communities. The region’s natural

beauty and resident and migratory species are the basis of a billion dollar tourist industry.

Gulf of Alaska

2.1.1 Coastal laboratories and

oceanographic moorings

Coastal laboratories are located across the Gulf of

Alaska and normally house seawater tanks supplied

by fresh seawater. The laboratories provide both

the capacity to conduct cost-effective sampling from

small boats and a convenient supply of seawater for

monitoring temporal variation of shallow coastal water. This variability is driven by inputs of fresh water,

high biological productivity, and coastal upwelling.

We propose coordinated estuarine and coastal monitoring in Kachemak Bay, near Kodiak, and near

Juneau, based from the NOS Kasitsna Bay and NMFS

Kodiak and Auke Bay Laboratories. Kachemak Bay is

also part of the NOAA Kachemak Bay NERR. This effort will also be coordinated with near-shore monitoring system deployments in other regions (see section

5.1.7) and with oceanographic mooring and ship survey measurements.

Oceanographic moorings exist in the Bering Sea

and Gulf of Alaska. We propose deploying instruments to measure carbon parameters, most on standard oceanographic moorings. The locations of

coastal laboratories and oceanographic moorings are

shown in Figure 2.2. See Tables 1.2 and 1.3 for more

detailed information about each mooring.

2.1.2 CO2 cruises: Bering Sea, Gulf of

Alaska, Arctic Ocean, southeast Alaska

The purpose of these cruises is to establish baseline CO2 measurements for coastal seas which have

not been measured previously. Sampling is planned

for the Bering Sea in FY2011, the Gulf of Alaska in
Chapter 2. NOAA Alaska Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 33

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

60oN 59.5oN 59oN 58.5oN

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

RB GAK1 GAK2 GAK3 GAK4 GAK5 GAK6 GAK7 GAK8GAK9 GAK10 GAK11 GAK12 GAK13

0.75

0.75

0.50

1.0 1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.25

1.5 1.25

1.5 1.75

1.75

1.5

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.5

Figure 2.1: Aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the Gulf of Alaska in September 2008 (Jeremy Mathis, University of Alaska).

Ωarag < 1 indicates undersaturation; Ωarag > 1 indicates supersaturation.

FY2012, the Arctic Ocean in FY2013, and inside waters of southeast Alaska in FY2014. Depending on results of those cruises, repeat sampling will continue

in FY2015 and FY2016 in the coastal seas where observations reveal the most impact from ocean acidification. Equipment purchases are planned for FY2010.

Operations on these cruises will consist of pointFigure 2.2: Locations of coastal laboratories and oceanographic moorings in the Alaska Region with proposed ocean

acidification monitoring capabilities.

specific sampling of dissolved CO2 profiles and ocean

acidity along track lines, with station sampling nominally every 30 nautical miles. Biological samples

will be collected near observing sites using standard

net tows. A typical field operations day consists of

CO2, oxygen, and nutrient sampling, Conductivity,

Temperature, and Depth (CTD) profiler casts, mooring recoveries and deployments, California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) Vertical

Egg Tow (CalVET) and Marine Assessment Monitoring and Prediction (MARMAP) Bongo net tows, various bio-optical instrument deployments, and Towed

Undulating Vehicle (TUV) operations. This acidification cruise is best executed during summer, when

biota are at peak production, to enable comparison

of ocean pH with abundance and condition of organisms.

2.2 Organism Response to Ocean

Acidification (Theme 2)

The species-specific physiological response to ocean

acidification is unknown for most marine species.

Lacking basic knowledge, we recommend a broad research effort directed toward several taxa, including
34 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Organisms of Near-Term Focus

King crab (above)

Euphausiids

Deep-sea corals

Pollock

shellfish, calcareous plankton, deep-sea corals and

fish. We also recommend prioritization within this research effort, with earlier and/or larger investments

directed toward taxa more likely to be affected by

ocean acidification and commercially and ecologically important species, especially the larval and juvenile stages. Commercially important calcareous

species (e.g., king crab) are first priority because of

their economic value and because these species are

likely to suffer direct effects of reduced CaCO3 availability. Second priority is calcareous prey (e.g., euphausiids) of commercially important species (e.g.,

walleye pollock) and marine mammals, because the

most likely effects on fish and marine mammals are

indirect effects through predator-prey relationships.

Direct effects on fish and marine mammals are less

likely because their calcareous tissues are internal.

Third priority is deep-sea corals whose ecological importance includes sheltering marine organisms (e.g.,

rockfish). Fourth priority is commercially important fish species; some research will screen for early

life history effects. We will add a focus on marine

mammals if we find effects on prey of planktivorous

(baleen whales) or piscivorous (pinnipeds, toothed

whales, porpoise, and dolphin) species.

Task 2.2.1 Create state-of the-art facilities for

conducting ocean acidification experiments on

individual species and species assemblages.

To evaluate how species in Alaska ecosystems will

respond to acidification, we will build state of the

art facilities for conducting species response experiments. These facilities will be set up as shared-use

centers, where scientists from NOAA and academic

institutions can perform experiments. The advantages of such share-use facilities are many-fold and

include economic efficiency and promotion of collaboration among researchers. The Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC) ocean acidification facilities will

be located in Kodiak and Juneau, Alaska, and Newport, Oregon, and are scheduled to be completed in

2010 as part of the NMFS FY2010 Ocean Acidification

Plan. The AFSC has already developed pilot ocean

acidification treatment systems at each site, which

have been used for preliminary experiments on king

crab, herring, pollock, and cod. Scientists at each

site have many years of experience conducting experiments with their focal species (e.g., king crab at the

Kodiak Lab). Knowledge gained in the development

of the pilot systems will be applied to the creation

of the larger facilities. During the development pilot

system, AFSC researchers have established collaborations with scientists from the University of Alaska and

the Northwest and Northeast Fisheries Science Center, where there is strong support for shared-use facilities.

Task 2.2.2: Conduct acidification response experiments on species and species assemblages of interest in Alaska ecosystems.

AFSC scientists have been conducting preliminary

ocean acidification research on Alaska king crab

species since 2006 (R. Foy, S. Persselin). Their approach has included identification of shellfish species

that may be affected; development of laboratory studies to test hypotheses related to the direct effects of

decreased pH and undersaturation of CaCO3 in seawater; identification of response variables that would

be appropriate to assess ocean acidification impacts;

and development of in situ process studies to address the magnitude of importance that ocean acidification may have on coastally important shellfish

species. AFSC scientists have also begun conducting ocean acidification research on walleye pollock

(T. Hurst with J. Mathis, UA) and Pacific herring (F.

Sewall, M. Carls) in 2009. A pilot ocean acidification treatment system to assess larval crab response

to acidification will be set up in 2010 at the Kasitsna

Bay Laboratory, through partnerships with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Kachemak Bay NERR

and in coordination with AFSC scientists.

The shellfish, calcareous plankton, coral, and fish

studies proposed below were developed to form a

coherent ocean acidification research plan. These

studies are described in more detail in the AFSC

Ocean Acidification Research Plan (Sigler et al., 2008).
Chapter 2. NOAA Alaska Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 35

Species-specific effects identified by these studies

are apt to have ecosystem-level consequences; these

study results will be used to inform models and forecast population, ecosystem, and economic impacts.

2.2.1 Shellfish

The species-specific physiological responses of king

crab to ocean acidification will be measured and then

these results will be incorporated into a bioeconomic

model to forecast population and economic impacts.

In addition, a survey of North Pacific shellfish will be

conducted to assess species vulnerabilities to ocean

acidification. The survey will measure CaCO3 concentration and form (e.g., aragonite). The speciesspecific physiological response (growth, survival, reproduction) of larval, juvenile, and reproductive female king crab species to mixtures of pCO2 levels of

280, 400, 500, 750, and 1,000 ppmv (ppmv = parts per

million by volume) will be tested. The mixtures were

chosen to reflect past, current, and predicted future

levels of CO2 concentrations in seawater. The performance of the CO2 delivery system will be monitored

because the chemical changes induced in the affected

seawater will depend on the salinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, and initial pH. The CaCO3 content of

the shells of the experimental animals in the different

treatments will be measured. Genomic microarrays

will be used to indicate sublethal effects. These study

results will be incorporated into a two-area bioeconomic model of Alaska’s king crab fishery (see the

“Human Dimensions” section).

2.2.2 Calcareous plankton

The species-specific physiological responses of calcareous plankton to ocean acidification will be measured experimentally in the laboratory and distribution of the natural population will be monitored in

the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. These results will

be incorporated into an ecosystem model to forecast

ecosystem impacts. In addition, a survey of North Pacific calcareous plankton will be conducted to assess

species vulnerabilities to ocean acidification. Monitoring of calcareous plankton distributions will continue in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska from satellite observations and shipboard sampling by research

vessels and ships of opportunity. These distributions

may be compared to water mass properties (e.g., temperature, salinity, nutrients, and pH) and distribution

of zooplankton and fish to understand factors promoting blooms and potential food web implications.

In addition, we plan to conduct at-sea experiments

to test for effects of ocean acidification on calcareous

plankton (e.g., pteropods) through collaboration between external and in-house experts.

2.2.3 Deep-sea corals

A survey of North Pacific corals will be conducted

to assess species vulnerabilities to ocean acidification

and these results will be evaluated in a risk assessment. The species-specific physiological responses

of representative coral species to ocean acidification

will be measured in the laboratory. The degree to

which North Pacific Ocean corals will be affected by

ocean acidification will depend on the CaCO3 saturation state and type and their depth distribution. Fairly

good information on coral depth distribution exists,

but information on CaCO3 composition of the skeletons is limited. A survey will be conducted then to

construct a risk assessment for North Pacific Ocean

corals. Measurements on the aragonite and calcite

saturation horizons will be critical to this assessment.

Species-specific physiological responses will be measured for representative coral species in the field and

laboratory. The species will be chosen based on the

risk assessment.

2.2.4 Fish

The direct and indirect responses of walleye pollock,

Pacific cod, and Pacific herring will be measured and

these results will be incorporated into an ecosystem model to forecast ecosystem impacts. Ocean

acidification could impact the recruitment dynamics of fishes through two distinct pathways, reduced

growth and survival through direct physiological effects and, alternatively, by altering the production of

lower trophic levels and thus the foraging environment of the early life stages. Experiments will be conducted to examine both the direct physiological and

indirect food web effects of ocean acidification on the

early life stages of commercially valuable fish species

(e.g., pollock) and important forage species (e.g., herring). The walleye pollock experiment will extend previous research on prey quality effects on larval walleye

pollock.
36 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

2.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem

Models (Theme 3)

The population and ecosystem models described in

this Plan will incorporate the results of the speciesspecific physiological studies to forecast population,

ecosystem, and economic impacts of ocean acidification. These models are described in this section

and in Section 2.4. The planned studies build upon

a substantial number of existing population, ecosystem, and economic models. In general, the planned

studies add an ocean acidification component to an

existing model and leverage substantial existing capability.

2.3.1 Ecosystem sensitivity to ocean

acidification and valuation of indirect effects

Task 2.3.1: Develop models to predict how Alaska

ecosystems will change in response to ocean

acidification and alternative ocean management

actions.

Future ocean pH levels, climate, and the combined

direct and indirect ecological effects of ocean acidification and climate change, are uncertain. The AFSC

has developed trophic (i.e., food-web) models of the

Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska ecosystems (e.g., Aydin

et al., 2007) that have been used with climate change

scenarios to forecast how reduced calcareous prey

(pteropods) abundance could affect the abundance

of commercially important species (pink salmon) in

the Gulf of Alaska. Pteropods can be important prey

for pink salmon (Aydin et al., 2005). These models predict substantial impacts of reduced production of pteropods on growth of pink salmon (Aydin

et al., 2005). An exploratory analysis using these models with climate change/ocean acidification scenarios can be conducted at relatively low cost and could

yield important insights regarding model sensitivity

and the range of ecosystem effects. In particular, this

component of the project will examine how direct effects of changes in ocean pH and temperatures can

be transmitted across trophic levels to create indirect

effects in the ecosystem models. In addition, an economic model will be developed to evaluate impacts of

these indirect effects.

2.3.2 Climate change/ocean acidification

scenario development

Task 2.3.2: Develop regional biogeochemical

models coupled to global carbon cycle models

to predict local changes in carbon chemistry at

multiple temporal scales.

A current study on climate scenario development for

projections of atmospheric CO2 levels and changes in

ocean pH will be developed by NOAA scientists and

collaborators. Future atmospheric CO2 levels, which

influence ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state, will

depend on many factors, but anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are chief among

these. A global energy-economic growth model (Dalton et al., 2008) is being used to project CO2 emissions

from fossil fuels. An earth system model of intermediate complexity (Cao et al., 2007; Feely et al., 2009) will

take fossil fuel emissions from the economic model as

input, track baseline greenhouse gas emissions from

other sources, and project atmospheric CO2 levels

and changes in ocean pH. Assumptions in the scenarios about future technological and demographic

change will be based on updates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions.

2.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

Task 2.4: Estimate economic consequences for

Alaska king crab fisheries due to ocean acidification.

A two-area bioeconomic model of Alaska’s king crab

fishery will be used to evaluate fishery performance

in each of the climate change/ocean acidification scenarios. The structure of the proposed model will be

based on previous work (Dalton, 2001; Dalton and

Ralston, 2004). In addition, the proposed model will

incorporate an explicit population growth function

that will be calibrated to experimental results on king

crab growth and survival with varying pH and water

temperatures. A first version of the population model

will quantify growth and survival information from

early life history stages. As results from additional

experiments become available, the population model

will be extended to quantify effects of acidification on

later stages of a crab’s life. Decision rules for fishing

effort which depend on expected abundance, climate,
Chapter 2. NOAA Alaska Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 37

and prices will be estimated (and tested) using time

series data from Alaska’s fish tickets, observers, and

information on vessel costs from the Bering Sea and

Aleutian Islands Crab Economic Data Collection Program and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

Simulations will test effects of ocean acidification and

warming both singly and combined.

2.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

Task 2.5: Synthesize, archive, and report results

of ocean acidification research in products usable for fisheries management.

Information from ocean acidification research will be

synthesized into products usable for fishery management, archived in standard formats for scientific exchange, and reported in the scientific literature. The

population, ecosystem, and economic models will be

used to forecast the abundance of species impacted

by ocean acidification. These forecasts will synthesize

results of the species-specific physiological studies,

state-of-the-art models, and climate scenarios and

will be reported to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council. Marine resource managers will be able

to use these forecasts to develop mitigation strategies

for the effects of ocean acidification on regulated and

protected species.

Data from ocean monitoring will be archived in

standard hydrography databases at PMEL and will be

sent to national and international ocean acidification

databases, including the Alaska Ocean Observing System. Results of the ocean monitoring, species-specific

physiological studies, and forecasting will be reported

in the scientific literature.

2.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Task 2.6: Implement an education and outreach

program to communicate the science, economic,

and ecosystem consequences of ocean acidification to the public and stakeholder communities.

NOAA will coordinate with existing resources already

present in the region, such as Alaska Sea Grant, NMFS

Alaska Regional Office, and the Alaska SeaLife Center, to communicate the causes and potential effects

of ocean acidification on the Alaska coast and ecosystems to fishermen, boat operators, tour guides, the

seafood industry, the general public, and K–16 educators. This effort will include producing and distributing a variety of education and outreach tools, including summary literature, news releases, and interactive displays at aquaria. Through these partnerships,

NOAA can play an integral role in developing an increased awareness of the causes and potential effects

of ocean acidification in Alaska marine ecosystems.

Public workshops held to communicate the status

of ocean acidification knowledge, to provide information on the effects of ocean acidification on Alaska

marine resources, and to create a dialogue between

NOAA scientists and the public will be required as a

part of this effort. This is especially true for those that

may be impacted by a changing ocean, i.e., the fishing

industry, coastal resource managers, and Alaska residents that depend on subsistence fishing.

2.7 Collaborators

Alaska Region Collaborators

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Kasitsna Bay Laboratory

Kachemak Bay NERR

Arctic Research Program

University of Alaska

Alaska Sea Grant

Alaska Department of Fish and Game

Alaska Ocean Observing System

Alaska SeaLife Center

3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research

Plan

Paul McElhany, Simone R. Alin, D. Shallin

Busch, Robert Pavia, Kelley Higgason, Steve

Katz, Jonathan Phinney, Adrienne J. Sutton,

Richard A. Feely, John Stein, Mary Sue

Brancato, Ed Bowlby, Jan Roletto, and Lisa

Etherington

3.0 Ocean Acidification in the West

Coast Region

3.0.1 Carbon Chemistry Patterns

The deep waters of the Northeast Pacific Ocean

are considered the “oldest” water in the ocean

conveyor belt and carry the cumulative signature of respiration processes that have taken place

about 1,000 years ago when the water mass was last

exposed to the atmosphere. The upwelled waters

along the coast are thus naturally rich in carbon dioxide (CO2) and nutrients, lower in oxygen (O2) and

lower in pH than the waters they replace. This natural high-CO2 condition is exacerbated by the uptake

of anthropogenic CO2 at the surface. Upwelled waters

also characteristically have lower saturation states for

the major carbonate minerals, aragonite (Ωarag) and

calcite (Ωcal), than surface waters. Species with calcareous shells, tests, or skeletons may have more difficulty biomineralizing or maintaining their shells in

the low pH surface water anticipated for the West

Coast under changing climate conditions, even if Ω

remains above one (Guinotte and Fabry, 2008; Fabry

et al., 2008).

Because of the aged composition of upwelled waters, ecosystems in the northeastern Pacific Ocean are

particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification impacts.

The aragonite saturation horizon in the northeastern

Pacific is within a few hundred meters of the ocean

surface and naturally shallower than in most other

parts of the global ocean (Feely et al., 2004). Mixing of anthropogenic CO2 absorbed from the atmosphere into the upper ocean of the northeastern Pacific over the last few hundred years has shoaled the

depth of aragonite and calcite saturation horizons by

30–100 m since the preindustrial era and saturation

horizons are continuing to shoal at a rate of 1–2 m

yr−1 (Feely et al., 2004). Thus, less anthropogenic CO2

is required to reduce aragonite and calcite saturation

to levels that may be stressful or lethal for marine organisms in the Northeast Pacific than elsewhere in the

world ocean.

Extrapolations from open ocean conditions in marine carbon cycle models suggest that undersaturated

waters will shoal to depths that affect the West Coast

ecosystems that are home to rich fisheries, deep-sea

corals, and diverse communities over the next several decades to a century (e.g., Feely et al., 2004; Orr

et al., 2005; Feely et al., 2009). However, recent observations during a late spring–early summer cruise

demonstrated that the upwelling waters already had

pH values less than 7.70 and aragonite saturation index values less than 1, presumably as a result of the

combined effects of respiration and the added contribution of anthropogenic CO2 (Figure 3.1).

Within the California Current System (CCS), there

is strong regional variability in the intensity and duration of upwelling, as well as in the dominance of upwelling in controlling biogeochemical cycling, ecosystem susceptibility to ocean acidification, and the related problem of hypoxia in the coastal ocean. Of

critical importance to ecosystems is the spatial and

temporal scales of upwelling. The strong gradients

in water conditions that are observed across the shelf

or along the CCS are punctuated by intense localized upwelling that may be as focused as a hundred meters or as diffuse as hundreds of kilometers,

and are ephemeral with time occurring over days

to months (Graham, 1994; Marchesiello and Estrade,

2009). The granular scales, in both space and time,

of the hydraulic events that bring corrosive water to

39
40 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

West Coast Region Description

Image: Summer climatology of chlorophyll from SeaWiFs (NASA)

The West Coast Region covers the marine waters off of the coasts of California, Oregon and Washington and, to a lesser

extent, adjacent areas of Baja and British Columbia. Our focus is primarily on the continental shelf and inland seas

and encompasses the California Current System (CCS). Ecological dynamics and biogeochemistry in CCS are strongly

influenced by natural climactic cycles, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the

seasonal development of upwelling conditions during spring and summer months. As North Pacific atmospheric highs

and lows shift at the end of the winter storm season, equatorward winds develop along the coast and push surface waters

away from the coastline through Ekman transport (e.g., Hickey and Banas, 2003; Hill et al., 1998; Pennington and

Chavez, 2000). Deeper water masses replace these displaced surface waters in the process of upwelling. Upwelling brings

cold, nutrient rich water to the surface, supporting high primary productivity and the diverse marine life dependent on

that food source. The CCS supports important commercial and recreational fisheries, including salmon, pelagic fish,

groundfish, and invertebrates including shellfish.

shallow depths are the scales at which their impacts

on ecosystems will be observed first. This granularity

also sets important demands on the monitoring system necessary to assess both the progress of ocean

acidification and the consequences of acidification to

ecosystems and commerce. In addition, there are

strong gradients in rainfall, continental shelf width,

and riverine inputs of nutrients and freshwater from

north to south along the CCS coastline, each of which

also plays a role in determining the effects of ocean

acidification and hypoxia. For instance, the influx of

freshwater, nutrients, and excess carbon dioxide from

river inputs can have profound effects on circulation

(Hickey, 1998), primary production (Lohrenz et al.,

1990), and aragonite saturation state (Salisbury et al.,

2008) in coastal waters.

The Northeast Pacific along the West Coast shows

strong spatial and temporal variability in primary production, CO2 and O2 concentrations, and, we expect,

also in aragonite saturation. However, historical carbon measurements along the West Coast have been

infrequent and localized, with the exception of the

2007 North American Carbon Program West Coast

Cruise (Feely et al., 2008). In order to improve our

ability to forecast and monitor the development of

corrosive conditions and to predict their biological

impacts, it is necessary to improve our observations

and to conduct studies and develop models aimed at

understanding the impact of ocean acidification and

its relationship with hypoxia on ecosystems along the

West Coast. Improved understanding of these processes through research will help the public and natural resource managers adapt and, in very localized

instances, possibly mitigate impacts.
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 41

Figure 3.1: Cross-sections of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) and pH from the West Coast Cruise transect off of northern

California measured in May–June 2007. These cross-sections clearly show the upwelling of water masses undersaturated with

respect to aragonite (Ωarag < 1.0) and with low pH values (Feely et al., 2008).

3.0.2 Vulnerable species and ecosystems

The coastal marine ecosystem on the West Coast experiences some of the oldest and most corrosive upwelled water in the world. While this may suggest

that these species and ecosystem are already adapted

to periodic low pH environments, the magnitude of

pH change expected from the addition of anthropogenic CO2 will create corrosive environmental conditions at spatial and temporal extents that have not

been observed for millions of years. The number of

studies exploring the biological impact of acidification is increasing rapidly (Figure 1.2). The growing

literature on OA is greatly expanding our appreciation of how acidification could alter West Coast marine ecosystems. We have already conducted a comprehensive literature review to explore which West

Coast species are most vulnerable to the impacts of

ocean acidification (Table 1.1). Many economically

and ecologically important West Coast species are expected to show direct response to ocean acidification.

These species include bivalves (e.g., oysters, mussels,

geoduck), which are both economically valuable and

serve an ecological role in altering substrate conditions for other species. Many crustaceans are also

directly vulnerable and include species directly harvested (e.g., crab, shrimp) and crucial components of

the marine food web (e.g., krill, copepods). Echninoderms (e.g., sea stars and urchins) are top predators or grazers in some benthic systems and are expected to be negatively impacted by OA because they

are composed of a more soluble form of calcium carbonate (high-magnesium [Mg] calcite). Some echinoderms (e.g., urchins and sea cucumbers) are also directly harvested. Crustose algae are also composed of

high-Mg calcite and are an important component of

rock substrates ecosystems. Phototrophic organisms

(e.g., phytoplankton, eelgrass, kelp) with obvious importance to West Coast ecosystems have shown mixed

response in lab experiments to changes in CO2 (Table 1.1). Introduced species (e.g., green crab) have

already altered West Coast ecosystems and may respond differently to OA from native species which

have evolved with West Coast upwelling patterns.

This is not an exhaustive description of the direct

and indirect effects of OA expected on West Coast

ecosystems. We anticipate refining our vulnerability predictions as we implement the species response

experiments in this plan (Theme 2) and develop a

large enough sample of tested species to identify patterns of attributes correlating with acidification response, and as we develop predictive ecosystem models (Theme 3).
42 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

3.0.3 Immediate risk in shellfish

For four of the last five years, there has been a neartotal failure of developing oysters in both aquaculture

facilities and natural ecosystems on the West Coast.

The developing oyster failure appears correlated with

naturally occurring upwelling events that bring low

pH waters undersaturated in aragonite as well as

other water quality changes to nearshore environments. Lower pH values occur naturally on the West

Coast during upwelling events, but a recent study indicates that anthropogenic CO2 is contributing to seasonal undersaturation (Feely et al., 2008). Low pH

may be a factor in the current oyster reproductive failure; however, more research is needed to disentangle potential acidification effects from other risk factors, such as episodic freshwater inflow, pathogen increases (Elston et al., 2008) or low dissolved oxygen

(Brewer and Peltzer, 2009). It is premature to conclude that acidification is responsible for the recent

oyster failures, but acidification is a potential factor

in the current crisis to this $100 million a year industry, prompting accelerated research on ocean acidification and potential biological impacts.

3.1 Monitoring Ocean Acidification

(Theme 1)

To document the development of ocean acidification

along the West Coast, it is critical to implement a

comprehensive program to monitor changes in ocean

carbon chemistry, vulnerable species distribution and

abundance, and ecosystem status. This section describes current and proposed monitoring for ocean

acidification. There is no historical monitoring older

than a few years dedicated explicitly to the issue of

ocean acidification (though monitoring for carbon

parameters has taken place in a limited area of the

Southern California Bight since the 1980s). The monitoring program described in this plan is intended

both to serve as a means to observe long-term patterns and to act as an ocean acidification “early warning system” that will provide near real-time, local information about imminent threats, especially to the

oyster aquaculture facilities, from low pH conditions.

3.1.1 Oceanographic monitoring

Task 3.1.1: Develop and implement a program

Figure 3.2: Planned West Coast regional OA observational

network.

for monitoring carbon-cycle-related oceanographic parameters on the West Coast.

In order to meaningfully monitor ocean acidification

and its ecosystem impacts in the CCS, it will be necessary to deploy and maintain an observational network that can accurately convey data in near real time

on oceanographic conditions from sub-regions along

the West Coast with differing biogeochemical and

ecological processes. To meet this challenge, NOAA

scientists and other regional researchers working on

coastal carbon and ocean acidification have designed

an observational network for the West Coast (Figure

3.2, Tables 1.2 and 1.3). The network will consist of a

combination of pre-existing and new moored and underway sensor platforms, strategically placed for maximum integration, as well as regional and larger-scale

hydrographic and carbon chemistry cruises to place

the automated platform observations into a broader

regional and process-based context.
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 43

3.1.1.1 Open ocean and coastal observatory

Moored observational systems with sensor packages

at discrete depths and deployed in key locations will

provide higher temporal resolution observations and

will serve as the core platform of an early warning

ocean acidification system. The Northeast Pacific

open ocean OA network includes moorings near the

northern and southern ends of the CCS at 50◦N, 145◦E

and 33◦N, 122◦E, respectively (Figure 3.2, Table 1.2).

The coastal OA observatory in the CCS will consist of

a network of five moorings deployed near La Push,

Washington; Newport, Oregon; Trinidad Head, California; the mouth of San Francisco Bay, California;

and Pt. Conception, California (Figure 3.2, see Table

1.3 in Chapter 1). These coastal moorings should capture the major modes of variability in biogeochemical

controls among the sub-regions within the CCS that

are most susceptible to OA impacts in the near-term

as a result of upwelling and river inputs. Two of the

new moorings will be placed in the context of finerscaled moored sensor arrays for oxygen and temperature within the National Marine Sanctuaries.

Ship-based observations can provide good spatial

coverage along the full West Coast, as well as largerscale oceanographic context, and will include both

dedicated research cruises, during which a full suite

of hydrographic and chemical parameters will be

measured on depth profiles, and surface observations

off of research and volunteer observing ships (e.g.,

ferries or other commercial vessels) using underway

sensor packages. The CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography open-ocean cruises provide contextual information on Pacific basin-scale changes in circulation and

biogeochemical processes relevant to coastal acidification. PMEL also has underway systems equipped

to measure pCO2, salinity, and temperature on the

NOAA ship Ka’imimoana and a commercial vessel

(M/V Albert Rickmers) that routinely collect CO2 data

in the equatorial Pacific, as well as a commercial vessel (M/V OOCL Tianjin) that traverses the North Pacific twice each month, as part of the “Surface water pCO2 measurements from ships” program funded

by the NOAA Climate Observation Division. These

trans-Pacific ships all spend time in West Coast waters each year, and those that do not already measure two carbon parameters can be upgraded with

new pH sensor technology at minimal additional expense to the OA program to allow the most accurate and precise assessment of OA conditions available for underway systems at this time. PMEL also

has two dedicated coastal underway CO2 systems on

NOAA ships with excellent West Coast coverage, the

McArthur II and the Miller Freeman, and will develop

plans for the Bell M. Shimada, which will be operational in FY2010. These underway systems will be

augmented with new pH and O2 sensors to monitor the outcropping of corrosive and hypoxic water

masses in upwelling regions along the West Coast.

The McArthur II and the Miller Freeman support a

wide variety of NOAA Fisheries research cruises along

the West Coast, and collaborations are being forged

to pair chemical measurements with the fisheries and

ecosystem-based assessments typically conducted on

these cruises. PMEL investigators are developing collaborations with NMFS, NMS, and academic partners

to integrate carbon chemistry measurements into regular observation programs that monitor oxygen, as

well as biological and physical conditions reflecting

the health of fisheries and sanctuaries resources.

The map in Figure 3.2 shows the full West Coast

network that is envisioned by the NOAA community

and partners at academic institutions and other state

and federal agencies. Moored observational systems

with sensor packages at discrete depths and deployed

in key locations will provide higher temporal resolution observations and will serve as the core platform

of an early warning ocean acidification network. Both

moored and underway platforms can support existing sensors for measuring pCO2, pH, salinity, temperature, and O2, as well as a host of ancillary sensors that can be valuable for resolving the biological and physical processes contributing to the development of corrosive or hypoxic conditions. In addition to the biogeochemical monitoring, it is critical to

include measurements to understand ocean circulation patterns (e.g., currents to understand advection,

winds to understand upwelling and mixing). Inadequacy in capturing circulation patterns is a primary

source of error in ocean carbon models, and monitoring the dynamics of ocean currents is critical for understanding the controls on the biogeochemistry. Observations from moored and underway systems can

be telemetered back to NOAA laboratories in near

real time, so they can undergo preliminary analysis

and be distributed to stakeholders in a timely fashion.

Finally, gliders could be utilized to provide depthresolved transects of parameters related to the development of corrosive conditions in coastal ecosystems. High-frequency, cross-shelf glider transects can

provide insight into key physical and biogeochemical processes influencing the development of corrosive conditions with greater spatial resolution than

stationary moorings. NOAA scientists are currently

working together across divisions and line offices and

with our academic collaborators to design and implement coupled carbon chemistry and biological monitoring strategies for floats and gliders.
44 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

3.1.1.2 OA observatory for inland marine waters

and bays

Although the West Coast does not have as many large

rivers draining it as the East and Gulf coasts, a few

large river-estuary systems on the West Coast may be

particularly important in terms of their potential role

in the development of corrosive conditions in coastal

environments (cf. Emmett et al., 2000; Dame et al.,

2000). Efforts to implement OA-capable moorings,

underway systems, and sampling surveys in these water bodies are at various stages of development. A

number of CO2 moorings are either planned or deployed that can be upgraded to be OA-capable by

adding a second carbon parameter (Figure 3.2). Puget

Sound, the Columbia River estuary and plume (the

largest river system emptying into the Pacific from the

Americas), and San Francisco Bay are the most likely

river-estuary systems along the U.S. West to experience enhanced ocean acidification as a result of anthropogenic inputs to the coastal ocean. All three already have significant anthropogenic impacts within

their watersheds, including issues associated with invasive species, pollutants, and significantly altered

freshwater, acid deposition, nutrient run-off, and sediment budgets because of the 4–8 million people living in each system. In 2008, PMEL collaborated with

scientists from the University of Washington and the

Washington Department of Ecology to conduct the

first extensive high-quality carbon surveys in Puget

Sound and found evidence suggesting that OA and

other anthropogenic stressors are having synergistic

negative impacts on this rich ecosystem.

In California, San Francisco (SF) Bay is a productive estuary that provides nursery habitat for economically important Dungeness crab, Pacific halibut, and

Pacific salmon populations. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has been monitoring water

quality along a 145-mile transect in San Francisco Bay

for the past four decades (Table 3.1). Measurements

of inorganic carbon parameters to assess OA impacts

on the SF Bay estuary should be added to the USGS

surveys.

To the south of SF Bay, Monterey Bay is perhaps

the only place on the West Coast where two carbon

parameters have been sampled regularly since 1993,

and this time series supports the hypothesis that acidification is occurring along the West Coast. This ongoing time series shows an increase in pCO2 and decrease in pH that are both greater than the changes

seen at open ocean time-series sites and clearly discernible over the signature of interannual variability

(Chavez et al., 2002; 2007; Borges et al., 2010) (Figure

3.2, Table 3.1). Investigations throughout central and

southern California since the 1940s (CalCOFI) have

collected physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic data at roughly seasonal resolution (Table

3.1), and carbon sampling on CalCOFI cruises will

be expanded to include OA measurements through a

collaboration between Scripps Institute of Oceanography and PMEL.

3.1.1.3 International coordination and

collaboration

In addition to working with domestic partners, especially NOAA, state agencies, and academic institutions, NOAA scientists are coordinating international

efforts with Canadian and Mexican scientists along

the entire western continental shelf of North America. For instance, scientists from all three countries

will be participating in ocean acidification cruises led

by Canadian and U.S. PIs in FY2010 and 2011, respectively. Both neighboring countries have longterm hydrography and chemical oceanography observation programs that sample at least in part in coastal

CCS waters such as IMECOCAL (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California) in Mexico and

the Line-P Time-Series Program in Canada (Table

3.1). Carbon chemistry measurements of the highest

quality have already been integrated into both sampling programs, which will facilitate the robust comparison of conditions, processes, and ecological impacts throughout the CCS without regard to international borders.

3.1.1.4 Center for ocean carbon chemistry

Task 3.1.2: Establish a Pacific Center of Expertise

for ocean carbon chemistry at PMEL.

The oceanic inorganic carbon system has four measurable parameters: pH, dissolved inorganic carbon

(DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and the partial pressure

of CO2 (pCO2). Because the rate of pH change related to ocean acidification is so slow (∼0.002 y−1), it

is not possible to measure pH with sufficient accuracy

and precision using widely available potentiometric

pH sensors (generally ±0.01 accuracy and precision),

which are also notoriously drift-prone. Rather, it is

preferable to measure DIC and TA, for which the most

robust methods are currently available. Both the DIC

and TA methods used in PMEL’s marine carbon laboratories are among the community standard analyt-
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 45

Table 3.1: Sampling programs within the California Current System that have historically collected physical, chemical, and biological oceanography data of relevance for hindcasting the development of ocean acidification along

the West Coast. Abbreviations: T = temperature, S = salinity, O = oxygen, P = pressure, chl = chlorophyll, pheo =

pheophytin.

Program Location Years of sampling Parameters measured

Fisheries and Oceans

Canada Line-P

Time-Series

From Vancouver Island to

Station Papa

1956–present T, S, P, O (later years),

nutrients

Race Rocks Lighthouse Strait of Juan de Fuca,

Vancouver Island

1921–present T, S

Washington Department of

Ecology Marine Water

Column Ambient

Monitoring Program

Washington coast, Puget

Sound

1967–present T, S, O, nutrients, chl, pheo,

bacteria, Secchi

Puget Sound Regional

Synthesis Model (PRISM)

Puget Sound, Strait of Juan

de Fuca (WA)

1998–present T, S, O

Newport Hydrographic Line

(NH1)

Newport, Oregon,

cross-shelf transect

1950–present T, S, O, plankton tows, chl,

nutrients

United States Geological

Survey Water Quality

Program

San Francisco Bay (CA) 1969–present T, S, O, chl, nutrients, light,

suspended solids

Monterey Bay Aquarium

Research Institute

(MBARI)

Monterey Bay (CA),

cross-shelf transect

1993–present T, S, O, pCO2, pH

California Cooperative

Oceanic Fisheries

Investigation (CalCOFI)

Central to southern

California coastline

1949–present T, S, P, O, chl, pheo,

nutrients

Investigaciones Mexicanas

de la Corriente de

California (IMECOCAL)

Baja California coastline 1997–present T, S, O, chl, primary

production (14C),

zooplankton, DIC and TA

(starting in 2006)

Partnership for

Interdisciplinary Studies

of Coastal Oceans (PISCO)

Washington, Oregon, and

California nearshore

coasts

1999–present T, S, O, ecological

parameters (including

recruitment and

biodiversity)

ical methods for ocean carbon measurements (Dickson et al., 2007).

The PMEL Carbon Program will develop a facility

to serve as a NOAA Pacific “Center of Expertise” (CoE)

for analyzing ocean carbon chemistry samples. This

facility will serve mainly as a quality control and training center but will also be used to analyze samples

collected by PMEL and other regional laboratories

in support of the national OA program. West Coast

regional labs (e.g., NMFS Science Centers) that require high-volume carbon chemistry analysis for experiments or field monitoring will develop in-house

or partnership capabilities using the CoE carbon lab

as a technical and quality control resource. Such a

CoE is necessary because of the significant technical challenges in adequately measuring ocean carbon

chemistry.

3.1.2 Biological monitoring

Task 3.1.3: Develop and implement a program

for biological monitoring to detect ecosystem

changes caused by acidification and changes in

biology that affect the carbon cycle on the West

Coast.

The purpose of an ocean acidification biological monitoring program is to detect changes in ecosystem

processes from acidification at an early stage. To

some extent, existing monitoring programs, such as

the hydrographic, plankton, and krill surveys off Newport, Oregon (Hooff and Peterson, 2006), Trinidad

Head, Bodega Bay, Monterey Bay, and the Southern

CA Bight, provide information on general patterns

in ecological communities that will help detect responses to acidification. However, these surveys were
46 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

designed for other reasons and we have to improve

our abilities to detect ecosystem response by targeting

the monitoring on species most likely to be affected

by acidification. Species likely to respond include

both those vulnerable to direct effects (Table 1.1) and

those vulnerable via indirect effects (e.g., trophic cascades).

Biological monitoring will be used to address

two distinct questions: (1) Is acidification affecting

species of commercial, social, and ecological importance? (2) Are there biological changes that affect marine carbon cycling and hence the rate of acidification? The first question involves detecting response to

acidification. The second question involves changes

to the “biological pump” driving marine carbon cycling. Prioritizing species and ecosystems to monitor for biological impacts of acidification will be based

on species vulnerability and ecosystem services value

(Table 1.1). Initial acidification monitoring projects

will likely include a focus on benthic community

structure and on zooplankton dynamics. Sedentary

calcareous organisms in the benthos are expected to

be one of the first to respond to acidification because calcareous organisms are a significant part of

the benthic community and deeper benthic environments generally experience higher levels of CO2. Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) can be

used to systematically monitor changes in benthic

communities and can be coupled with broader survey methods to provide a comprehensive view of how

benthic communities respond to acidification. Zooplankton are also a high priority for initial acidification monitoring because many zooplankton species

appear vulnerable to acidification, and zooplankton

are an important component of the marine food web

for commercially important and endangered species.

Changes in species composition and activity,

brought on by ocean acidification or other factors

(e.g., climate change) can alter the cycling of carbon

in the ocean, which can in turn affect the rate and

location of acidification (Feely et al., 2009). Previous studies have suggested that carbon cycling depends primarily on the activity of phytoplankton, protists, zooplankton, microbes, and other small invertebrates, especially calcareous species like coccolithophores, foraminfera, and pteropods (Fabry et al.,

2008). However, a recent study suggests that fish may

play an important role in carbon cycling as well (Wilson et al., 2009), such that an activity like fishing

has the potential for direct impacts on ocean chemistry. A comprehensive biological monitoring system

for ocean acidification will require the ability to detect

significant changes in major biological components

of the ocean carbon cycle. Information on changes

to the biological pump will be used to recalibrate biogeochemical models that forecast acidification. Monitoring the functioning of the biological pump will

require careful coordination between biological and

oceanographic monitoring to track processes, such

as the sinking of organic particles, that are affected

by both biological and non-biological processes. Because of the challenges in monitoring microbial communities and plankton, a metagenomic approach will

likely need to be developed (Woyke et al., 2009).

Over the next year (FY2010), the NW and SW Fisheries Science Centers will develop a comprehensive

ocean acidification biological monitoring plan for the

West Coast. Plan development will involve a review

of existing monitoring programs, such as the monthly

(Newport, OR, Trinidad Head, CA, Bodega Bay, CA) as

well as the quarterly ship survey lines (Monterey Bay

and CalCOFI), to explore whether modifications will

allow for better tracking of both acidification impacts

and biological pump processes. It is also likely that

new monitoring approaches, such as for benthic community changes, deep-sea coral AUV surveys, and microbial metagenomics will be proposed. Another consideration in developing this monitoring plan will be

coordinating biological and carbon chemistry sampling for more robust correlations between acidification and biological change. During development

of the monitoring plan, we will address the management of data and coordination with regional implementations of the Integrated Ocean Observing System Regional Associations (NanOOS, CenCOOS, SCCOOS) and NOAA’s ecological observing program PaCOOS (see section 3.5 for more details).

Task 3.1.4: Establish an immediate monitoring

program focused on bivalve recruitment patterns.

Because of the recent failures in oyster recruitment

on the West Coast, we propose rapid implementation of a program to monitor bivalve recruitment patterns. The current recruitment failure, primarily observed in aquaculture, may be an early indicator of

the effects of acidification. A comprehensive monitoring program for wild bivalve populations of multiple species will allow tracking of potential trends and

spatial patterns. Monitoring will be coordinated with

projects at the Oregon State University, University of

Washington (Newton et al., 2009), and with the shellfish industry. Details on oyster and other commercially targeted shellfish monitoring will be included in

the NMFS West Coast OA monitoring plan.
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 47

3.1.3 Intensively studied marine areas

3.1.3.1 NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS)

program

The mission of NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) program is to serve as the trustee for the

nation’s system of marine protected areas, to conserve, protect, and enhance their biodiversity, ecological integrity and cultural legacy. Consequently, The

NMSP has a mandate and responsibility to protect

and conserve the extraordinary marine resources in

the marine protected areas that are harbored within

the Sanctuaries. While global CO2 emissions reduction is one of the most pressing needs with respect

to protecting the ocean, addressing and preparing

for ocean acidification will require an array of additional efforts, including research, monitoring, public education, and development of resource management strategies in the context of a rapidly changing

physical oceanographic context.

Task 3.1.5: Establish Intensively Studied Marine

Areas for monitoring ocean acidification.

Marine protected areas in the California Current,

including five National Marine Sanctuaries, are key

sites for establishing Intensively Studied Marine Areas for monitoring to detect and track the impacts

of climate change and ocean acidification on marine ecosystems. The Intensively Studied Marine

Area (ISMA) approach is based on the need to understand complex oceanographic processes that are

likely to deliver acidic, corrosive water to coastal communities; broad-scale monitoring is insufficiently detailed to illuminate complex local process, and detailed process monitoring is too expensive to deploy

everywhere. Thus, ISMAs capture the need for an

ocean research field study where the local and regional dynamics of the ocean system can be examined in greater detail than is possible with generic

monitoring. The ISMA aims to (1) determine the local impacts of processes such as acidification and (2)

generate the understanding needed to extrapolate results from large-scale or regional monitoring to forecasts for local areas not within a IMSA-site monitoring

program.

ISMAs are key components of any system aimed

at monitoring temporal change in environmental

conditions and of any large-scale monitoring plan,

and may serve as test beds for an ocean acidification early warning system. If possible, the footprint of an ISMA should match scales of the process

of concern—acidified waters shoaling and impacting

coastal communities. National Marine Sanctuaries

encompass representative ecosystems at appropriate

spatial scales and have the required administrative

stability in the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries (ONMS) to make effective ISMAs for both oceanographic and biological monitoring. Channel Islands,

Monterey Bay, Gulf of the Farallones, Cordell Bank,

and Olympic Coast National Sanctuaries encompass

over 31,000 km2 of ocean habitat extending from intertidal habitats to deep canyons (Figure 3.3, Table

3.2). Each of the sanctuaries provides conditions suitable for examining ecosystem effects of ocean acidification. Table 3.2 highlights important species, habitats, or ecological settings that are already the focus of

research efforts within NOAA’s sanctuaries.

The West Coast National Marine Sanctuaries have

an ocean observing backbone that can support additional ocean acidification measurements. Some of

these measurements, such as those for Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the Olympic Coast and Gulf

of the Farallones sanctuaries, have a direct bearing on understanding ocean acidification’s biological impacts. Others, such as long-term temperature

measurements, provide background for understanding ecological trends. Establishing or augmenting the

ocean acidification observation and monitoring capacity in sanctuaries will gain added benefit from a

wide range of ecosystem research already being conducted by partner institutions. NMFS Fisheries Science Centers will collaborate with West Coast NMS in

FY2010 on development of the West Coast ocean acidification biological monitoring plan.

Organisms of Near-Term Focus

Zooplankton (krill, copepods, pteropod)

Bivalves (geoduck, oysters)

Deep-sea Coral

Dungeness Crab

Echinoderms (sea stars, urchins)

Fish (Pacific sardine, rockfish)
48 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Table 3.2: Features of marine sanctuaries on the West Coast.

Name Area (km2) Key Species Key habitats

Olympic Coast 8,573 Salmon, Orca Whales,

murres, tufted puffins

Kelp forest, deep water

coral, rocky intertidal

Cordell Bank 1,370 Rockfish, krill, Dungeness

crabs, hydrocorals, blue

and humpback whales,

auklets, albatross

Offshore rocky bank,

continental shelf and

slope, upwelling plume

Gulf of the Farallones 3,250 Blue Whale, Cassin’s Auklets,

Common Murres, Brandt’s

Cormorants

Estuaries, rocky intertidal,

neritic zone and shelf

break

Monterey Bay and Davidson

Seamount

15,791 Sea otters, orca whales Sea mount, kelp forest,

rocky intertidal, Monterey

canyon, estuary

Channel Islands 4,294 Blue, Humpback whales,

seals, sea lions, storm

petrels, Xantus’ Murrelets,

Cassin’s Auklets, brown

pelicans, urchins, lobster,

abalone (red, white,

black), and other

calcifying invertebrates

Kelp forest, rocky reefs, deep

canyons and basins, rocky

islands

3.1.3.2 National Estuarine Research Reserve

System (NERRS)

Through agreements between NOAA and coastal

states, NERRS sites protect select estuary areas for

long-term research, water-quality monitoring, education, and coastal stewardship. This research focus

makes the five West Coast NERRS sites (Tijuana, San

Francisco Bay, Elkhorn, South Slough, and Padilla) appropriate candidates for ISMAs targeting OA in estuarine habitats. These habitats are greatly influenced

by terrestrial activities and interactions between OA

and terrestrial inputs, and biological processes are

likely to be complex in these environments that are

often presumed to naturally experience great variability in carbon chemistry. The NERRS sites are positioned to provide unique insights into these environments. They have a history of long-term monitoring and have substantial infrastructure in the form of

platforms, sampling capabilities, and IOOS connections. With improved carbon monitoring capabilities

and other directed research, NERRS sites, which are

protected areas, can enhance our understanding of

how OA might impact these dynamic ecosystems.

3.2 Organism Response to Ocean

Acidification (Theme 2)

3.2.1 Exposure experiments

To predict how ecosystems will respond to ocean

acidification, there is a critical need to know how individual species and species assemblages will respond

under controlled conditions. Results from controlled

experiments provide three basic types of information:

(1) direct predictions about species of interest (e.g.,

oysters, Miller et al., 2009), (2) data to refine models

of the ocean carbon cycle (e.g., microbial respiration

rates in high CO2 environment, Doney et al., 2009a),

and (3) key growth and survival parameters for foodweb/ecosystem models that predict indirect effects of

acidification.

Task 3.2.1: Create a state-of-the-art NOAA facility on the West Coast for conducting ocean acidification experiments on individual species and

species assemblages.

To evaluate how species in West Coast ecosystems

will respond to acidification, the NWFSC will build

a state-of-the-art facility for conducting species response experiments. This facility will be set up as a

shared-use center, where scientists from across NOAA
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 49

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the temperature, oxygen concentration, and corrosiveness (Ωarag < 1.0; dark blue colors) of “ocean acidified” coastal waters

off Newport, Oregon, in 2007 (Juranek et al., 2009). Pressure (in decibars, db) is roughly equivalent to depth in meters.

(Top) Northward wind stress (dynes cm–2) from NDBC buoy 46050 (with upwelling-favorable winds denoted in blue and

downwelling-favorable winds denoted in red).

can perform experiments. The NWFSC facility will

be located in the Seattle area, and the first stage is

scheduled to be completed in 2010 as part of the

NMFS FY2010 OA Plan. The NWFSC has already developed a pilot ocean acidification treatment system,

which was used for preliminary experiments on geoducks and krill. Knowledge gained in the development of the pilot system is being applied to the creation of the larger facility. During development of the

pilot system, NOAA researchers established collaborations with scientists from the University of Washington, where there is strong support for the shared-use

facility.

To simulate more realistic conditions than is possible with many acidification treatment systems, the

NWFSC-based facility will allow researchers to mimic

natural patterns of variation, such as rapidly changing tidal patterns, and vary a number of environmental parameters, including CO2, pH, O2, and temper-
50 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

ature. Much of the biological action on the West

Coast takes place in coastal and nearshore environments where fluctuations in key environmental parameters, such as pH, are large, so that simply exploring species’ behavioral or physiological response to

changes in average CO2 may miss how the species will

actually respond to future conditions. The NWFSC

system will also be capable of conducting large-scale

multi-factorial experiments on multiple species simultaneously with statistically defensible replication.

As noted in the introduction, options for mitigating acidification in the field are extremely limited, so

management response will to a great extent rely on

reducing other, potentially more controllable stressors, such as low oxygen levels from nutrient loading. Multi-factorial experiments that include these

other stressors are required, which necessitates a facility capable of simultaneously maintaining a large

number of different environmental conditions. Analytical chemistry needs for the NWFSC facility will be

met by a combination of on-site capabilities and collaboration with the PMEL Carbon group.

Task 3.2.2: Support development of collaborative

facilities for acidification response experiments.

A number of research institutions on the West

Coast have developed or are developing facilities for

conducting experiments on species response to acidification. For example, a consortium of researchers

from academic institutions has developed plans for a

research facility at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO). Other facilities include a shared-use center being developed by the University of Washington

at Friday Harbor Labs, a facility at the Monterey Bay

Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), and the facility being constructed by the Alaska Fisheries Science

Center in Newport, Oregon. In addition, there are several smaller systems at individual labs, such as in UC

Santa Barbara, UCD Bodega Marine Lab, Moss Landing Marine Laboratory, San Francisco State University

Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies,

and Western Washington University’s Shannon Point

Marine Center. Each of these facilities have different

capabilities and the number of key species that need

to be evaluated is vast. So the multiple facilities will

meet the scientific and management needs on OA effects on the West Coast. Where NOAA scientists are

collaborating with external labs on species response

experiments, NOAA should assist in the development,

construction, and maintenance of the experimental

facilities.

Task 3.2.3: Conduct acidification response experiments on species and species assemblages of interest in West Coast ecosystems.

Research at the NWFSC will initially focus on exploring the response of bivalves and zooplankton.

This work will build on preliminary acidification experiments we have already conducted at the NWFSC

on geoducks (Panopea abrupta) and krill (Euphausia

pacifica). Bivalves are ecologically and economically

important and, as previously described, West Coast

shellfish aquaculture is experiencing a recruitment

failure suspected to be at least partially attributable

to acidification. Zooplankton play a critical role in

the food web and serve as the primary food source

for economically important fisheries. Future plans

include experiments on fish (especially olfaction effects), deep-sea corals, Dungeness crab, and echinoderms and expand to mechanism of physiological responses using latest molecular biological and genetic

tools.

In addition to single species experiments, the

NWFSC will focus on evaluating the response of wildcollected, multi-species assemblages. The approach

of this research is to take a sample of, for example, zooplankton or species collected on a settlement

plate, from the local environment, then compare

in the laboratory how species composition changes

over time when exposed to different simulated future

ocean conditions. This approach will evaluate the response of multiple species simultaneously and show

how interactions among species may play out under

future conditions. As with any laboratory experiment,

there are limits to how the results could be extrapolated to natural conditions, but the experiments are

likely to reveal new avenues of research that would

not be apparent from single species analyses.

Initial species response experiments at the SWFSC

will complement the activities at the NWFSC and will

take place at the facility planned for SIO. The initial

studies will be on commercially and ecologically important forage fish such as sardines and squid, for

which the SWFSC has 30 years of experience spawning. In addition, the SWFSC will work on endangered

abalone that are of great commercial and cultural importance in California.

The response variables for species exposure experiments include basic metrics such as growth and

survival but also more sophisticated metrics such

as molecular genetics, biochemical and physiological measures of stress (enzyme activity, respirometry),
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 51

energy reserves (lipids), crystallography, fish otolith

trace metal chemistry, response to disease challenge,

and calcium content.

3.2.2 Experiments on biological pump

parameters

Some of the species exposure experiments will focus

on species and processes important to marine carbon cycling. For example, if acidification affects the

abundance of foraminifera or other highly abundant

pelagic calcareous species, there will likely be feedbacks on carbon cycling that would alter the future

progression of acidification processes. These potential effects will be considered in prioritizing species

for evaluations in laboratory experiments.

3.2.3 Calcium carbonate mineralogy

Task 3.2.4: Assess the calcium carbonate mineralogy of species important to West Coast ecosystems.

One potential approach to predict species response

for calcifying organisms is based on analysis of calcium carbonate mineralogy. In general, calcium carbonate solubility is, from most soluble to least: amorphous calcium carbonate, high-magnesium calcite

(>7 mole percent), aragonite, low magnesium calcite, dolomite (Morse and Mackenzie, 1990). Theoretically, species vulnerability could be ranked based

on the type of calcium carbonate used in their structures. However, the pattern of vulnerability observed

in study species is not this simple: species response

also depends on developmental stage, methods of

calcification, and other factors such as rate of mineralization, temperature, or overall physiological stress.

It is important to know the mineralogy of ecologically and economically important species. However,

the mineralogy of many calcifying species (e.g., most

crustacean and gastropods) on the West Coast is unknown.

The Alaska Fisheries Science Center has proposed

to assess the mineralogy of many species found in

Alaska. We will work with the AFSC to evaluate additional species found off California, Oregon, and

Washington to create a comprehensive inventory of

important species in the Northeast Pacific. Given that

we will never be able to do controlled experiments

on all species, extrapolating species response based

on factors like mineralogy will be necessary to model

ecosystem response.

3.2.4 Detecting historical species response

Task 3.2.5: Correlate hindcasts of West Coast

saturation states with historical biological timeseries of species abundance to estimate how

species and communities responded to past

changes in saturation state.

Based on the methods described in Section 3.3.2 on

hindcasting biogeochemical conditions (Task 3.3.2), it

is possible to estimate the historical saturation states

and other carbon system parameters using data commonly collected on oceanographic cruises and moorings. By correlating historical time-series of pH and

saturation states with historical biological time series,

we may be able to detect historical changes in species

abundance, distribution, or morphology caused by

acidification. This information will help us project

what may happen in the future. The historical time

series of pH can tell us something about how species

and communities responded to lowered pH conditions in the past.

The biological time-series collected on the Newport Hydro Line is one of several valuable data

sets available for these analyses. In addition to

oceanographic data, time series on zooplankton and

other species have been collected there since 1966.

Given their vulnerability to acidification (Fabry et al.,

2008), pteropods (Limacina) will be a focus of initial study. Researchers will look at patterns of abundance and analyze the morphology and shell thickness of archived samples to see how changes in saturation state may be reflected in historical shell formation and condition.

In California, the CalCOFI data set contains an extensive time series of oceanographic and biological

data for reconstructing saturation states and biological communities. Again, pteropods are a potential initial focus of study, and archived samples for morphological analysis go back to 1949. Since 1997, the samples have been stored in ethanol, which reduces the

chance of potential shell degradation as often occurs

when samples are traditionally stored in formaldehyde.

Otoliths of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) appear to record OA and temperature conditions in their

shape, making the otoliths potential archived environmental indicators. Sardine otoliths are also used
52 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

in fisheries research to age fish. The SWFSC has retained samples of ichthyoplankton, which includes

sardine otoliths, since 1949. Since 1996, part of each

ichthyoplankton sample has been stored in ethanol

to preserve calcified tissues, such as otoliths. Sardine

otolith samples are also potentially available from

sediment cores off Southern California and British

Columbia, which contain records over multiple centuries.

3.2.5 Testing ecosystem models with in situ

experiments

Task 3.2.6: Explore technologies for in situ openocean and semi-permeable mesocosm experiments to test predictions from ecosystem models

and species not amenable to laboratory culture.

As described in Theme 3, it is difficult to completely

validate an ecosystem model. However, it may be

possible in an in situ mesocosm setting or using in

situ CO2 exposure systems to test specific model predictions. Mesocosm and in situ experiments on entire ecological communities provide some information of how interactions among species may play out

in a high CO2 world. However, those very interactions

can be difficult to interpret (Bellerby et al., 2008). Investment in systems for conducting these in situ or

mescosm experiments can be very high at this time,

and we are not convinced that they provide the best

use of funds. However, the methods have potential

for testing specific predictions of ecosystem models

and for evaluating the response of species that cannot readily be cultured in the lab. We therefore propose establishing an active research program to explore and develop these technologies so that they may

potentially be deployed effectively in the future.

3.2.6 Evaluating potential mitigation

methods

Task 3.2.7: Conduct laboratory and field experiments on potential local mitigation methods.

At least two possible local mitigation methods have

been proposed to counter the effects of ocean acidification: (1) sediment buffering and (2) electrodeposition. Neither method is likely to be practical for

mitigation at large geographic scales. With the sediment buffering approach, calcium carbonate from

ground bivalve shells or limestone would be spread

over the existing sediments to alter the saturation

state of the local benthic environment (Green et al.,

2009). Electro-deposition is a method developed to

create artificial reefs by running an electric current

though metal structures placed in the ocean (Hilbertz,

1979; Goreau and Sammons, 2003). The electric current alters local saturation state and could potentially

provide a local substrate to mitigate ocean acidification.

We propose conducting laboratory and field experiments to evaluate whether either of these methods

could be use for local mitigation to protect high-value

resources like commercial shellfish beds, rare or endangered species, or to promote biostabilization of

sediments to prevent beach erosion. Laboratory experiments will be conducted in species exposure systems on target species (e.g., oysters) where the mitigation techniques are one of the experimental treatments. We will conduct small-scale field trials of the

potential mitigation methods.

3.3 Biogeochemical and Ecological

Models (Theme 3)

3.3.1 Biogeochemical models—forecasting

future conditions

Task 3.3.1: Develop regional biogeochemical

models coupled to global carbon cycle models

to predict local changes in carbon chemistry at

multiple temporal scales.

Over the last decade, coarse-scale, coupled

climate/carbon-cycle models have been developed to determine future changes of ocean carbon

chemistry and ocean acidification for the next two

centuries (Kleypas et al., 1999; Caldeira and Wickett,

2003; Orr et al., 2005; Caldeira and Wickett, 2005; McNeil and Matear, 2008; Cao and Caldeira, 2008; Feely

et al., 2009). These models have provided information on the geographical distributions of open-ocean

carbon chemistry under different atmospheric CO2

stabilization scenarios. They have been validated

with the WOCE and CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography data sets. However, these models are not

sufficiently resolved to address ocean acidification

issues on a smaller scale such as coastal upwelling

regions or adjacent to large estuaries where corrosive,
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 53

“acidified” water may already be having significant

negative impacts on biological systems (Feely et al.,

2008; Salisbury et al., 2008). A better approach would

be to nest a high-resolution coupled climate/carbon

model within a global model (e.g., the GFDL MOM4

model or the NCAR CCSM3).

We propose to develop a West Coast regional model

(or suite of models) that will be part of a nested set

of models of ocean acidification in U.S. coastal waters. Model output will be verified with observational

data collected from shipboard surveys, moorings, and

gliders. A coordinated set of nested models will both

provide information for local planning and improve

the performance of global carbon models, which do

not yet match acidification conditions in coastal regions well (Hauri et al., 2009). Modelers working on

this project would be based at PMEL and work in collaboration with GFDL and AOML. PMEL also has collaborative relationships with research groups at other

academic and government institutions domestically

and internationally that do carbon cycle modeling at

appropriate space-time scales for the open coastline

within the CCS. At even finer spatial scales, local circulation models such as those developed for Puget

Sound can be modified to predict carbon cycle dynamics.

Task 3.3.2: Design and implement experiments

and observation projects to estimate critical parameters for regional carbon models

Accurate predictions of future carbon dynamics require accurate physical circulation models and accurate estimates of key biogeochemical process rates. In

global models, the accuracy of the physical circulation models appears to be a key factor in the consistency of model predictions (Doney et al., 2004). Additional experiments or observations may be needed

to ensure that adequate modeling of regional carbon dynamics is possible. Additional experimental

work will also be needed to constrain key biogeochemical process rates in the models. Many of the

parameters needed for ocean carbon cycle modeling

are not available for nearshore, coastal, or embayment environments. Important parameters to be constrained within the models (and parties engaged in

quantifying them) include the input rates of freshwater (USGS), nutrients (SFSU), and carbon (PMEL,

OSU, UCB); dissolution rates of abundant marine calcifiers (NMFS, CSUSM, UW), export rates of carbon to

sediments and open ocean (MBARI); and air-sea gas

exchange (PMEL, OSU, SIO, UW).

3.3.2 Biogeochemical models—hindcasting

historical conditions

Task 3.3.3: Develop and apply algorithms to reconstruct historical carbon chemistry conditions

over local to regional scales.

In addition to forecasting the future trajectory of

ocean acidification conditions along the West Coast,

it will be valuable to mine historical data archives

(e.g., World Ocean Database at NODC) of biological,

chemical, and physical oceanographic measurements

to understand the historical development of OA conditions along our coastline. A number of long-term

sampling programs for hydrographic data have operated in various parts of the CCS over the past several

decades (Table 3.1). The PMEL Carbon Program team

has developed new robust regional algorithms for estimating the seasonal extent of corrosive waters along

the West Coast of North America using archived biogeochemical and hydrographic data sets that lack carbon measurements (Figure 3.3) (Juranek et al., 2009).

The approach utilizes regression techniques to

model aragonite saturation values as a function of

more commonly collected hydrographic and chemical data (e.g., temperature, salinity, oxygen) so that

a broader range of cruise data sets can be used to

evaluate spatial and temporal variability in aragonite

saturation state, which is an indicator of where the

corrosive, acidified water exists along the coast. The

calculated saturation states agree well with the measured values. The method is reasonably straightforward and has good resolving power for aragonite saturation. This approach, when combined with shipboard observations, mooring, and glider data could

be utilized to verify the nested coupled climate models of ocean acidification and help to delineate acidification hotspots and thereby identify potentially vulnerable marine ecosystems in U.S. coastal waters. As

part of the PMEL collaboration with NMS and NMFS

scientists, seasonal or more frequent carbon chemistry samples would be collected within sanctuaries

or other regular sampling stations to validate the performance of these algorithms. The seasonal sampling would yield valuable information on the influence of seasonal and interannual variability on the algorithms, and in particular whether the stoichiometric relationship between CO2 and O2 in coastal water

masses changes with seasonal or annual variability in

the ecological balance of production and respiration

processes.
54 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

3.3.3 Ecosystem models

Task 3.3.4: Develop models to predict how West

Coast ecosystems will change in response to

ocean acidification and alternative ocean management actions.

Ultimately, we need to predict how ecosystems will

respond to changes brought about by ocean acidification and other stressors and how alternative management actions can affect that response. Of particular interest is the response of higher trophic species,

like harvested fish, that may be indirectly affected as

acidification leads to declines in their prey species.

One goal of ecosystem modeling is to translate the

chemical and ecological implications of acidification

into ecosystem services such as commercial harvest,

recreational opportunities (i.e., clam digging or whale

watching), that matter to stakeholders and NOAA policy makers.

In general and with reasonable justification,

ecosystem models that look at food web and higher

trophic effects do not explicitly model the carbon

system, and likewise, carbon system models do not

explicitly consider what happens at higher trophic

levels. Therefore, we have partitioned this plan

into separate tasks dealing with biogeochemical

forecasting of carbon system changes (Task 3.3.1) and

models forecasting ecosystem response (Task 3.3.4).

However, there is potential for more complex models

that combine both types of models, and we do not

intend to preclude such efforts. Recent analysis

indicates that high trophic levels can, in fact, directly

affect the carbon cycle, so coupled models may be

necessary to address some questions.

Puget Sound has been a focus for ecosystem models and can be used as an example of what can happen in nearshore, inland marine waters under ocean

acidification. Existing NOAA modeling efforts that are

currently being modified to address ocean acidification issues include an Ecopath model with Ecosim applications (Busch et al., in prep.) and a SLAM modeling application focusing on a geoduck-centric food

web (Busch and McElhany, in prep.).

In the California Current System (CCS), the Atlantis model has already been used by NWFSC researchers to explore how acidification may affect the

food web (Kaplan and Levin, in prep.). Results suggest that harvested species such as English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus) that feed heavily on benthic bivalves

and echinoderms are likely to see large declines in

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ocean acidification impacts on benthos (bottom curve).

Yield is based on catches in year 50 of a 50-year 964 simulation; this is an approximation of an equilibrium sustainable

yield (Kaplan et al., 2010).

abundance (Figure 3.4). Key fishery management reference points, such as maximum sustainable yield

(MSY) and unfished biomass (B0) are predicted to fall

by a factor of 10. Cumulative impacts of acidification

and fishing must be considered in concert: catches

of English sole that are sustainable without acidification lead to drastic overfishing under regimes with

strong acidification effects on bivalves and echinoderms. NWFSC researchers are currently exploring

the food web response to a number of predicted climate change impacts (ocean acidification, hypoxia,

temperature increase) with a suite of Ecopath with

Ecosim models along the West Coast from California to Alaska (Ainsworth et al., in prep.), including a

model of the entire CCS system (Field et al., 2006).

Ecosystem models are a valuable tool for “stress

testing” management options. With ecosystem models that can incorporate impacts of acidification, we

can simulate alternate management policies (i.e., different harvest quotas, shellfish aquaculture locations,

or daily loads of pollutants), and identify which policies are most robust to reasonable scenarios for

acidification. Similarly, we can identify what type

of monitoring, on what frequency or spatial scale,

is needed to detect food web effects of acidification and to inform adaptive policies. This strategic approach of testing management and monitoring

schemes against realistic ecosystem “operating models” has been called Management Strategy Evaluation

(MSE, Sainsbury et al., 2000). Overall, the approach

can inform our efforts to both monitor acidification

and its food web effects (Theme 1), and to develop

policies that can adapt to it (Theme 4).
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 55

3.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

Human dimensions research on ocean acidification

will consist of two major (and interrelated) components. The first is estimating how acidification is

likely to affect human communities though impacts

on “ecosystem services.” The second is the development and application of decision-support frameworks to improve the selection of appropriate management actions to deal with acidification and its effects.

3.4.1 Impact of acidification on ecosystem

services

Task 3.4.1: Estimate anticipated changes to West

Coast ecosystem services as a consequence of

ocean acidification.

As ocean acidification may severely alter marine ecological processes, it has the potential to have a big impact on ecosystem services. The term ecosystem services refers to the value of benefits to human communities as a result of functioning ecosystem processes, including both obvious economic benefits

(e.g., value of a fishery) as well as less obvious values such as clean beaches, protection from coastal

erosion, and cultural “existence value” of species (e.g.,

orca, salmon). Anticipating changes to ecosystem services can provide an incentive for mitigating the effects of acidification by reducing CO2 emissions, reducing other ecosystem stressors, or preparing communities for economic and cultural disruption if the

ecological impacts cannot be prevented. The development of ecosystem services models will be linked

to the ecosystem prediction models described above

in Theme 3.

3.4.2 Management decision framework

Task 3.4.2: Develop technical tools for evaluating the consequences of potential management actions related to ocean acidification on

the West Coast to create more effective management strategies.

Of critical import is development of a process for deciding what to do about ocean acidification. As described in the introduction, management options for

dealing with acidification may be somewhat limited.

However, there will be choices about whether to reduce CO2 emissions, how to confront other stressors

to the marine system, how to prepare communities

for ecosystem changes, whether to implement spatial

or temporal fisheries changes, etc. Making these decisions will require consideration of ecological predictions, the value of ecosystem services, and the economic and social costs of proposed actions. The decision process will need to transparently incorporate

the considerable uncertainty that exists in all of the

input parameters. A number of decision support tools

have been applied to these sorts of problems in a variety of fields, including management of ESA-listed Pacific salmonids. While the ultimate decision about

what action to take in any given situation is clearly

a policy determination, there is substantial technical

work needed to develop the tools to analyze the consequences of any particular policy choice.

3.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

Task 3.5.1: Develop and participate in effective management and dissemination of regionally produced data and data products related to

ocean acidification.

Management of biological data will, at least initially,

occur at the scale of the West Coast region or local labs. Biological data will generally take the form

of time-series data from ongoing monitoring efforts,

results from experimental studies, and databases of

species vulnerability to OA. Results from experimental studies and information about species vulnerability to OA will be published in the research literature or

in agency reports, with data distribution managed by

individual research teams. Biological time-series data

would benefit from other data management frameworks such as NOAA IOOS Program. However, we

expect the data relevant to this plan to be generated

by a host of different entities, with studies of ocean

acidification being only one of the reasons for collecting biological time-series data. Because of the diffuse nature of data collection and management and

the number of species involved, it will be challenging

to access and evaluate these disparate data sources.

Although the diffuse and nested nature of the data is

the reasons a central system for managing biological
56 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

data is difficult to create, they are precisely the reasons why a central system is needed.

Methods for carbon chemistry measurements and

quality control have been established for suite of observations that will make up the core of oceanographic OA monitoring efforts (Dickson et al., 2007).

Thus, oceanographic data from the West Coast region should be entirely consistent in format, content, and quality control with data from all other

regions. Chemical and physical measurements of

oceanographic conditions are thus more amenable to

archival in a centrally managed center for OA data,

such as the Global Data Assembly Center model described in Chapter 1.

3.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Task 3.6.1: Implement an education and outreach program to communicate the science and

ecosystem consequences of ocean acidification

to the West Coast public and stakeholder communities.

In order to improve the public’s understanding of OA,

a comprehensive plan for ocean acidification research

and monitoring must include education and outreach

activities. A well-informed public will support government research and management plans and energize

communities to take the necessary actions to mitigate the root causes of ocean acidification. The five

NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries along the West

Coast can play an integral role in meeting FOARAM

Act mandates by developing an increased awareness

of the causes and potential effects of ocean acidification on our coast and ocean ecosystems. Sanctuaries

can serve as sentinel sites, but also as places communities go to learn.

Robust primary, secondary, and adult education

programs exist at all five West Coast sanctuaries,

reaching thousands of students and members of the

public each year. Through at-school, in the field,

and visitor center programs, as well as community

lecture series and teacher workshops, sanctuary staff

and volunteers reach a large and diverse audience.

Ocean acidification education and outreach can be

incorporated into existing programs and curricula

that West Coast sanctuary sites lead or participate

in, including: Multicultural Education for Resource

Issues Threatening Oceans (MERITO) Academy, providing bilingual ocean conservation-related products

and services to students, teachers, adults, and families; Long-term Monitoring Program and Experiential Training for Students (LiMPETS), providing

sandy beach and rocky intertidal monitoring experiences to middle and high school students, as well

as teacher workshops and online teaching resources;

Ocean Science Professional Development Workshops,

preparing teachers to facilitate inquiry-based, marine

science-rich experiences for students; and Animals

in Curriculum-Based Ecosystem Studies (ACES), providing teachers with curriculum-based activities with

NOAA remote sensing data to improve environmental

and ocean literacy.

In addition to school programs and curricula,

a variety of other outreach and education activities exist at West Coast sanctuary sites. Reaching

local, national, and international audiences, West

Coast sanctuaries have current or planned exhibits

in many aquariums and museums, including Seattle Aquarium, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Aquarium of

the Bay, Oakland Museum of California, and California Academy of Sciences. Olympic Coast, Gulf

of the Farallones, and soon, Monterey Bay National

Marine Sanctuaries have visitor centers where thousands of students and members of the public come

to learn about ocean resources. Adult field seminars

and naturalist-led cruises are organized throughout

the region each year. All West Coast sanctuaries offer

community lecture series, and some, such as that organized by Channel Islands Sanctuary, have over 1000

participants each year from three different counties.

Interpretive signage is prevalent along coastal areas

of West Coast national marine sanctuaries, and radio is also used as an outreach tool with Cordell Bank

National Marine Sanctuary hosting the monthly radio

program, “Ocean Currents.”

Sanctuaries are also places where scientists can

reach into communities to help develop local plans

and actions addressing ocean acidification. Each

sanctuary has an Advisory Council comprised of representatives from public interest groups, local industry, commercial and recreational user groups,

academia, conservation groups, government agencies, and the general public who provide advice to

sanctuary managers. Sanctuary Advisory Council

members at all five sites, totaling almost 170 representatives, have identified ocean acidification as a regional priority.

Each West Coast sanctuary has a network of volunteers that support public education programs and

conduct citizen science. At three sites, volunteers collect data on beach-cast birds and mammals that provide early warning signals of changes in ocean productivity. This network of volunteers can be a valu-
Chapter 3. West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 57

able pool of support for ocean acidification research

and mitigation efforts.

For estuary habitats, the five West Coast NERRS

sites (Tijuana, San Francisco Bay, Elkhorn, South

Slough, and Padilla) will take a lead role in education about OA. In addition to protection and research,

these NERRS sites have an education and outreach focus, particularly with managers and local communities. Their experience in communicating with these

audiences will be a valuable asset to engage the public in understanding and responding to OA.

Outreach goals for the West Coast would include

developing an information delivery system where

ocean acidification data and information on current

research activities within the region would be made

available to scientists, managers, educators, stakeholders, and interested citizens through a web portal

and various internet resources. The first steps to producing an ocean acidification education and outreach

plan for the West Coast region will be:

• Identifying target audiences;

• Determining appropriate programs and products

for each audience;

• Developing a comprehensive needs assessment

for education and outreach programming;

• Matching ocean acidification needs with existing

education and outreach activities;

• Developing innovative approaches for community involvement.

These first steps would be completed in year one. The

second year will focus on developing and integrating K–12 educational curriculum. It will also be critical to link ocean acidification research and management with undergraduate and graduate students during this time. The third year will focus on exhibit design and development for science centers, aquariums,

and sanctuary visitor centers to provide the public a

rich user experience. Years four and five will focus

on continuing to implement programs and produce

products established within the first three years.

3.7 Collaborators

West Coast Region Collaborators

Northwest Fishery Science Center (FSC)

Southwest FSC

Alaska FSC

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (NMS)

Channel Islands NMS

Cordell Bank NMS

Gulf of the Farallones NMS

Monterey Bay NMS

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Regional OOS (NANOOS, CeNCOOS, SCCOOS,

PaCOOS)

National Estuarine Research Reserve System

University of Washington

Oregon State University

University of California, Santa Barbara

University of California, Davis

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

California State University—San Marcos

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Washington Department of Ecology

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife

California Department of Fish and Game

4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification

Research Plan

Russell E. Brainard, David Butterfield, Mark

Eakin, Richard A. Feely, Dwight K. Gledhill,

Elizabeth Kehn, Kathyrn Shamberger, Adrienne

J. Sutton, Oliver Vetter, and Charles Young

4.0 Ocean Acidification in the

Pacific Islands Region

This chapter presents NOAA’s research strategy

toward understanding the ecological impacts

of ocean acidification (OA) within the U.S. Pacific Islands region (PIR). As the precise effects of OA

on the marine ecosystems of the PIR remain largely

unknown, our initial efforts will focus primarily on establishing baseline conditions, initiating robust longterm monitoring programs, and addressing fundamental research needs. These research and monitoring efforts are intended to establish the requisite scientific understandings necessary to forecast

the ecological and socioeconomic consequences of

OA. This chapter addresses the priorities and unique

challenges facing the PIR in regards to the impacts

of OA on marine ecosystems and associated ecosystem and economic services (e.g., fisheries and ecotourism). These include evaluating the regional consequences from direct and indirect impacts on coral

reef and pelagic ecosystems, protected species, and

fishing and tourism industries.

4.0.1 Risks from ocean acidification in the

Pacific Islands

Coral reef ecosystems provide substantial ecological

goods and services, and economic and cultural vitality to island communities across the PIR through

fisheries, tourism, building materials, coastal protection, and biogeochemical research for pharmaceuticals (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). As an example of their economic value, the coral reefs of the

Main Hawai’ian Islands have an estimated net value

of nearly $10 billion (in 2002 dollars) with an average

annual benefit of $385 million, with the largest contribution from recreation and tourism (Cesar (ed.), 2000;

Cesar et al., 2003). According to even the most optimistic climate models, a critical atmospheric CO2

threshold of 480–500 ppm will be surpassed within

the next 80 years, at which point coral reef communities will likely undergo significant ecological phase

shifts with calcification of reef-building corals and

crustose coralline algae unable to keep pace with

bioerosion processes (Langdon and Atkinson, 2005;

Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). As this occurs, many

of the ecological, economic, and cultural values provided by coral reefs to the local communities of the

Pacific Islands could be devastatingly impacted. Coral

reefs and the resources they provide are central to

the cultural practices of the indigenous peoples who

have evolved around them for millennia (Bunce et al.,

2000).

Reduction of the hard substrate provided by coral

reefs has immediate impacts on both the nearshore

and pelagic fish communities. Coral reefs provide the

spawning grounds for many of the world’s key commercial fish species, as well as the reef fish caught

for recreation and sustenance. The deterioration

of spawning grounds affects future communities by

forcing a weaker recruitment and reduced fish stocks.

More urgently, critically endangered Hawai’ian monk

seal and threatened green sea turtles are being impacted by loss of essential breeding and nesting habitat.

4.0.1.1 Coral reef ecosystems

Coral reef ecosystem management and monitoring

are spread over a broad suite of habitats, from shallow, nearshore reefs, to protected lagoons and atolls,

to the wave- and weather-exposed reef slopes, to

mesophotic and deep-sea coral ecosystems. Coral

59
60 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Pacific Islands Region Description

The U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Pacific Islands Region (PIR) represents the largest geographical

management area within NOAA with a total area of responsibility of more than 1.5 million square nautical miles. This

is roughly equal to the size of all of the remaining U.S. EEZ waters combined. These areas, which span from Hawai’i

in the east, to Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands (NMI) in the west, to American Samoa in the south, are

separated by many 1000s of kilometers of vast international waters. This region encompasses a large percentage of the

nation’s most biologically diverse coral reef ecosystems; is home to endangered and threatened species of sea turtles,

monk seals, and cetaceans; and supports abundant and economically important highly migratory species of fish, such as

tunas and swordfish. The vastness and remoteness of the region present unique operational, scientific, and management

challenges for NOAA to cost-effectively assess spatial patterns, monitor temporal trends, and effectively manage coral

reef ecosystem health and biodiversity, the abundance and behavior of cetaceans and other species of concern, and

large-scale commercial and subsistence fishing in the PIR. In 2006, the Papah ̄anaumoku ̄akea Marine National Monument

(P-MNM) was established in the remote Northwestern Hawai’ian Islands as the single largest conservation area under

the U.S. flag, and one of the largest marine conservation areas in the world. It encompasses 139,797 square miles of

the Pacific Ocean—an area larger than all the country’s national parks combined. In 2009, the Pacific Remote Islands

Marine National Monument (PRI-MNM), Rose Atoll Marine National Monument (RA-MNM), and the Marianas Trench

Marine National Monument (MT-MNM) were established to conserve and protect an additional 195,274 square miles of

marine habitat. For each of these large marine conservation areas, NOAA has significant management responsibilities.

reef ecosystems are the most biologically diverse of all

marine systems and one of the most economically, biologically, and culturally important ecosystems on the

planet (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). It has been estimated that there are 1–9 million species on coral reefs

around the globe, representing roughly 25% of all marine biodiversity (Reaka-Kudla, 1997). Coral reefs also

provide substantial ecological goods and services, and

economic and cultural vitality to island communities across the PIR through fisheries, tourism, building materials, coastal protection, and biogeochemical

research for pharmaceuticals (Hoegh-Guldberg et al.,

2007). As well as the immediate effect of reefs on their

surroundings, coral reefs and estuaries often serve as

nursery grounds for many pelagic species. As such,

degradation of coral reefs will have cascading effects

across trophic levels throughout the marine food web,

including ecosystem goods and services provided to

mankind.
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 61

Research has shown that the aragonite saturation

horizons are shoaling; therefore it has been projected

that the first reefs to be affected by ocean acidification

are likely to be deep-sea coral ecosystems (Cairns,

2007; Guinotte et al., 2006) and possibly intermediatedepth mesophotic coral ecosystems (characterized by

the presence of light-dependent corals and associated communities typically found at depths ranging

from 30 m to over 150 m in tropical and subtropical regions). Among shallow water coral reef ecosystems in U.S. jurisdictions, those in the Northwestern Hawai’ian Islands are likely to be the first to

pass below levels where net calcium carbonate balance can be maintained. It has been hypothesized

that mesophotic coral ecosystems, such as those located in the Au’au channel in Hawai’i, may serve as

a potential refuge for shallow-water coral populations

predicted to be impacted by ocean warming (Puglise

et al., 2009). While this may be true, concerns are now

being raised that the deeper range of these ecosystems may be among the first to be impacted by ocean

acidification (Sabine et al., 2004).

4.0.1.2 Anthropogenic stressors

Many of the coral reefs of the Pacific islands and

atolls represent the most geographically and oceanographically isolated marine ecosystems on Earth, e.g.,

the Hawai’ian Archipelago has the highest rates of

endemism in the world (Randall, 1995; 1998). Due

to their remoteness and federal protections as National Marine Monuments, Sanctuaries, and Wildlife

Refuges, many of these coral reefs are among the most

pristine or least impacted by humans anywhere in

the world. Their near pristine nature and low level

of direct anthropogenic stressors provides a unique

and unprecedented opportunity to examine the ecological impacts of ocean acidification without the

confounding influences of local stressors, such as

land-based sources of pollution (sedimentation, nutrient eutrophication, freshwater run-off, etc.), fishing, tourism, recreational overuse, and coastal development). Among shallow water coral reef ecosystems in U.S. jurisdictions, those in the Northwestern

Hawai’ian Islands are likely to be the first to pass below levels where net calcium carbonate balance can

be maintained. While the ecological impacts of ocean

acidification on human-degraded reefs should also be

monitored and studied to support local management

actions, the understanding acquired by studying the

simpler remote ecosystems will support improved implementation of ecosystem approaches to management of the more stressed and degraded reef ecosystems globally.

On higher elevation and well-populated islands,

such as the Main Hawai’ian Islands, anthropogenic

stressors, such as coastal development, land-based

sources of pollution (nutrient eutrophication, sedimentation, etc.), fishing, and invasive species, coupled with natural influxes of fresh water runoff and

nutrients, are likely to increase stress to nearshore

coral reefs, and confound the effects of ocean acidification by compromising coral immunity and ecosystem resilience.

4.0.1.3 Vulnerable species

All reef-building scleractinian corals (at least 400–

450 species, Richmond et al., 2008; Riegl et al., 2008;

Friedlander et al., 2008) and crustose coralline algae

across the PIR are considered vulnerable to direct impacts of ocean acidification due to reduced ability to

calcify their carbonate skeletons. As the structural

foundation for most insular ecosystems in the region,

these impacts would indirectly impact thousands, or

perhaps millions, or reef-associated species. Seventyfive of these Pacific coral species have recently been

petitioned for listing under the Endangered Species

Act (Center for Biological Diversity, 2009). In addition, numerous species of calcareous macroalgae

(e.g., Halimeda sp.), which provide abundant nursery

habitat for many reef-associated species and produce

significant volumes of calcareous sand, are likewise

vulnerable to ocean acidification.

The critically endangered Hawai’ian Monk Seal

(Monachus schauinslandi), endangered hawksbill sea

turtle (Eretmochelys imbricate), and threatened green

sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) are vulnerable to indirect impacts of OA as decreasing calcification rates of

sand-producing calcareous algae and corals threaten

to impact essential nesting beach habitats and poorly

understood trophic interactions potentially threaten

their prey species.

While the impacts of ocean acidification to the

46 known cetacean species in the PIR are not understood, it is likely that their forage will also be

significantly modified through poorly known food

web dynamics. It is known that ocean acidification

will increase low-frequency sound propagation in the

ocean and that the resulting ocean will be significantly noisier (Hester et al., 2008; Ilyina et al., 2010).

As cetaceans use sound extensively for communicating, navigating, foraging, and reproducing, many of

these species could be significantly impacted by these

changes in ocean sound characteristics.
62 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Numerous benthic and pelagic invertebrates,

including crustaceans (crabs, lobsters, copepods,

shrimps, etc.), molluscs (shellfish, squid, octopus,

etc.), echinoderms, and tunicates, are vulnerable to

direct and indirect impacts of OA as their calcification processes, life histories, and habitats respond

to changing carbonate chemistry. Exploration of the

deep ocean in the Marianas Trench Marine National

Monument, for example, has shown impacts of high

CO2 on bathymodiolus mussel species living at 1600

m depth on a submarine volcano (Tunnicliffe et al.,

2009). Even the phytoplankton, other zooplankton,

and protozoans at the base of the food web for the

vast Pacific pelagic ecosystems are likely vulnerable

to direct and indirect impacts of ocean acidification, though the biogeochemical processes of these

planktonic species are only poorly known at best. As

these primary producers are impacted, so too will be

the larger predatory animals, including fish, marine

mammals, turtles, and seabirds.

4.0.1.4 Species and ecosystems at immediate risk

Many calcareous organisms and protected species are

at immediate risk from the effects of ocean acidification across the PIR. These at-risk organisms and

ecosystems include: all reef-building corals and crustose coralline algae which form the structural base

of insular ecosystems of the PIR; sand-producing calcareous benthic macroalgae which provide essential

nursery habitat for many fish species and produce

much of the sand for beaches that are essential nesting habitat for many endangered species and economically important areas for recreation and tourism;

and many ecologically or economically important invertebrates (giant clams, lobsters, urchins, etc.). As

well as the calcifying organisms the secondary effect

of habitat loss from coral reef decline has an immediate effect on spawning grounds, reef fish, and beach

production. More generally, the biological diversity,

resilience, and long-term viability of the coral reef

ecosystems of the PIR are at immediate risk.

The potential immediacy of the risk to coral reef

ecosystems was highlighted on 20 October 2009 when

the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) filed a formal petition to list 83 coral species under the Endangered Species Act. Seventy-five of the petitioned

corals are believed to occur in the PIR. The premise

for the CBD petition is that these 83 coral species face

a growing threat of extinction due primarily to ocean

warming and ocean acidification. Using paleoclimate observations showing past mass extinctions of

coral genera, the petition argues that “coral reefs are

the world’s most endangered ecosystem and within

a few decades, global warming and ocean acidification threaten to completely unravel magnificent coral

reefs that took millions of years to build.” The petition states that “greenhouse gas pollution makes it

difficult for corals to grow and rebuild their colonies.”

More recently, the NMFS responded that the petition

warrants a one-year status review to assess the existence of and extinction risk to the 75 coral species petitioned for the PIR. To effectively and responsibly respond to this petition, NOAA requires a much more

thorough understanding of the potential impacts of

ocean acidification to these specific coral species.

Hawai’ian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi),

with a declining population of less than 1100 animals,

are the most critically endangered marine mammal

living entirely within U.S. waters (Antonelis et al.,

2006). Among many important stressors, monk seals,

as well as threatened green (Chelonia mydas) and endangered hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricate) sea turtles, are threatened by significant habitat loss as sea

level rise erodes away many of the small sandy nesting and breeding beaches in the NWHI (Baker et al.,

2006). As the beaches are composed primarily of

coral fragments and calcareous algae (Halimeda spp.),

the impacts of ocean acidification on sand production and transport dynamics could have significant

impacts on the survival of these endangered and

threatened species. Both monk seals and sea turtles already face significant habitat limitations. Reduction of the sea water alkalinity will likely result

in decreased carbonate production and, though less

likely, increased dissolution of these essential nursery

habitats required for their long-term viability. Moreover, monk seals are known to forage on fish associated with deep and mesophotic coral habitats (Parrish

et al., 2002), which, as discussed previously, will also

likely be impacted by ocean acidification.

At least 46 species of cetaceans are known in the

PIR, though population assessments are severely limited. Though not well understood in the region, one

of the key threats facing cetaceans, which actively

and extensively use sonar for feeding, navigating,

and communicating, is acute or chronic increases in

ocean noise, as demonstrated by repeated NMFS litigation over alleged violations of the Marine Mammal

Protection Act. Recent studies (Hester et al., 2008; Ilyina et al., 2010) have demonstrated that sound propagation in the ocean increases with decreasing pH.

That work suggests that the ocean will get noisier

and that acute sounds will propagate further as ocean

acidification increases. This could result in increased

impacts to cetacean populations, such as increased

strandings.
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 63

4.1 Developing an Ocean

Acidification Monitoring

Network (Theme 1)

Until recently, most of our knowledge and understanding of ocean acidification was based in pioneering open ocean carbonate chemistry surveys around

the globe (Feely et al., 2004; Sabine et al., 2004).

Though the “halo effect” (increased carbonate ion

concentration from dissolution of carbonate reefs) of

coral reefs has been known for over a decade (Sabine

and Mackenzie, 1995), little is known about the spatial

patterns or temporal variability of the biogeochemical processes in nearshore ecosystems generally and

coral reef ecosystems in particular. It is known that

constantly dissolving and accreting coral reefs and

coral atolls provide various sources and sinks for

carbonate and calcium ions (Andersson et al., 2009;

Bates et al., 2009).

Establishing a Coral Reef OA Monitoring Network

is currently a high-level priority of the NOAA Coral

Reef Conservation Program. Each station within the

network will constitute a suite of near-continuous

autonomous (where feasible) measurements of key

chemical, physical, and biological parameters at regular intervals (See Table 1.4 for station locations).

4.1.1 Oceanographic monitoring

4.1.1.1 Existing carbon chemistry monitoring

As part of NOAA’s Pacific Reef Assessment and Monitoring Program (Pacific RAMP), led by the Coral

Reef Ecosystem Division (CRED) at the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC), exploratory

surveys of nearshore carbonate chemistry were initiated in collaboration with NOAA’s Pacific Marine

Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), Coral Reef Watch

(CRW), and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in 2005. Carbonate chemistry surveys have focused on determining spatial patterns and temporal variability across gradients of biogeography, oceanographic/environmental conditions,

and habitat types (pelagic, forereef, backreef, lagoon,

etc.) throughout the PIR. Since 2008, monitoring of

carbonate chemistry has focused primarily on relatively pristine unpopulated low islands and atolls,

mostly within four remote Pacific Marine National

Monuments (P-MNM [in collaboration with Hawai’i

Pacific University (HPU)], PRI-MNM, RA-MNM, and

MT-MNM), which are not confounded by high island

watershed discharge issues or direct human-induced

stressors, such as coastal development and overfishing. Water samples collected at the surface and below the mixed layer in offshore-onshore transects upstream and downstream (out to ∼100 km) of several

island ecosystems confirmed significant biogeochemical influences (e.g., “halo” effect) in nearshore coral

reef habitats compared with the surrounding open

ocean environments. In 2008, HPU specifically examined this “halo” effect in P-MNM. Surface and nearbottom (<0.5 m) water samples collected in differing habitat types (forereef, lagoon, high coral cover,

sand, etc.) and hydrodynamic exposures (long versus short residence times) have revealed significant

biogeochemical differences across nearshore habitat

and exposure gradients (Gledhill, pers. comm., Winn,

pers. comm.).

In 2007, CRED and PMEL also initiated studies to

examine the carbonate chemistry and ecological impacts to coral reefs at shallow water (10 m) hydrothermal venting systems at Maug Caldera in the MTMNM. Direct measurement of shallow water vents

found streams of gas bubbles, temperatures of 60◦C,

pH of 6.07, total alkalinity of 3.56 meq/L, and aragonite saturation state (Ω) of 0.25. The shallow vents

are fed from magmatic heat and acidic gases (dominated by CO2) from deeper within the volcano. The

gases dissolve into seawater within the porous rock

and as the heated fluids rise through and react with

volcanic rock, they pick up iron, manganese, and alkali trace metals. The hydrolysis reactions that dissolve metal oxides from the rock partially consume

the magmatic acids and convert some of the excess

CO2(aq) to bicarbonate, raising the alkalinity and potentially mitigating the effects of ocean acidification

(Butterfield, pers. comm.). The process of magma releasing acidic gases is common on submarine volcanoes of the western Pacific (Lupton et al., 2006; 2008;

Resing et al., 2007; Embley et al., 2006; 2007), and

this process provides natural sites where the longterm impact of increased acidification on ecosystems

and biogeochemical processes can be studied. Many

sites of what may be called “volcanic ocean acidification” are below the photic zone and provide opportunities to study the impact on deep benthic communities (Tunnicliffe et al., 2009). The shoreline zone of

Maug Island is a prime example of the interaction of

volcanic ocean acidification with a coral reef in a remote, pristine tropical environment. Initial sampling

efforts at Maug indicate that the effects were localized

to the active vent sites, with normal carbonate chemistry parameters observed only meters away. Ecologically, there appeared to be a localized dead zone surrounding the immediate area of the venting site, with
64 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

high live coral cover found relatively nearby. As one of

only a few known shallow water venting sites in coral

reef habitats, Maug provides a unique opportunity to

potentially assess the future impacts of ocean acidification in a natural environment.

The NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program has

also begun advancing the development of a Pacific

Ocean Acidification test-bed in Kaneohe Bay, Hawai’i

(Shamberger et al., 2010). The project is a joint effort between NOAA AOML and PMEL, and the Universities of Hawai’i (UH) and Miami. The testbed serves as a nexus of federal agency and academic monitoring and research activities related to

OA. Since 2007, sustained monitoring of near-reef

pCO2(aq) has been conducted using a Moored Autonomous pCO2(aq) (MAPCO2) measuring system developed by NOAA PMEL. In 2008, PMEL and UH established two additional MAPCO2 systems along the

south shore of Oahu.

4.1.1.2 Enhanced carbon chemistry monitoring

Task 4.1.1: Implement a comprehensive program for monitoring carbon-cycle-related

oceanographic parameters in the Pacific Islands.

As part of this OA research plan for the PIR, NOAA

plans to implement a comprehensive program for

monitoring and understanding the carbon cycle and

biogeochemistry across this vast region, including

both nearshore waters of coral reefs and offshore waters of pelagic ecosystems. This multifaceted plan includes: expanded spatial surveys of carbonate chemistry across oceanographic gradients (T, S, nutrients,

etc.) and nearshore benthic habitat types, course resolution time series observations of carbonate chemistry from repeat spatial surveys, and high-resolution

time series observations from moored instrument arrays and satellite remote sensing.

NOAA will significantly expand the breadth and

scope of in situ surveys to map spatial patterns of carbonate ion concentrations and improve understanding of the biogeochemical and hydrodynamic processes driving calcification of coral reef associated

species. These spatial surveys will be conducted over

scales ranging from basin/regional scales (100–1000s

km) to examine changes across oceanographic gradients to island/atoll scales (1–25 km) to examine

changes across fine-scale habitat and exposure gradients. The basin/regional scale surveys will be accomplished by installing shipboard flow-through surface pCO2 and pH systems aboard the NOAA ships

Hi’ialakai, Oscar Sette, Ka’imimoana, and Okeanos

Explorer to broadly map surface aragonite and carbonate ion concentrations across the PIR during ongoing Pacific RAMP, fisheries and protected species

assessment, TAO buoy array maintenance, and ocean

exploration cruises across the region. The vertical

structure will be examined by conducting deepwater

CTD profiles and water sampling for carbonate chemistry parameters, nutrients, oxygen, and chlorophyll.

On island/atoll scales, NOAA will conduct shallowwater CTDs and water sampling across different biological habitats and wave/current exposures. In 2010,

NOAA will be transitioning from simply conducting

exploratory surveys to long-term monitoring of carbonate chemistry at established biological monitoring sites, where calcification rates and biodiversity

will concurrently be monitored (see below). At a small

subset of these sites, NOAA will begin examining the

magnitude and timing of the diurnal cycle of biogeochemical processes in nearshore systems associated

with natural photosynthesis and respiration of reefassociated biota using a McLane Remote Access Sampler (RAS) to collect nearshore water samples every 1–

2 hours for the 2–5 day visits during biennial Pacific

RAMP surveys. These diurnal observations of carbon

cycling will provide an estimate of community calcification and dissolution rates.

In addition to the repeat spatial surveys conducted

across the PIR using shipboard pCO2 systems and

offshore and nearshore water sampling, NOAA will

significantly augment ocean acidification monitoring efforts by establishing moored autonomous OA

Observatories to provide near continuous monitoring of a suite of chemical, physical, hydrodynamic,

and meteorological measurements of communityscale metabolic performance (net calcification, photosynthesis, respiration). The approach envisioned

is based upon a Eulerian flow respirometry method

as adopted for coral reefs (Gattuso et al., 1993; 1996;

1999). It requires autonomous monitoring of carbonate chemistry parameters (e.g., enhanced MAPCO2)

along with oxygen, nutrients, and other ancillary data

both upstream and downstream of selected reef environments exhibiting unidirectional flow. Together

with information on water mass residence time, it’s

possible to track reef metabolic performance and

derive robust estimates of reef growth contemporaneously with offshore estimates of changing ocean

chemistry. The moorings provide for an enhanced

characterization of the short-term variability in carbonate chemistry within coral reef environments.

This information, in conjunction with data from the

physiological research efforts, is needed to assign critical geochemical thresholds for OA impacts on reef
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 65

ecosystems. These OA Observatories, which will be

enhanced versions of the existing Pacific OA test bed

mooring in Kaneohe Bay, will be deployed at select coral reef sites across key oceanographic gradients across the region using information derived

from the spatial surveys to guide mooring placements. Planned coral reef monitoring sites in the PIR

include: Oahu, Palmyra Atoll, Midway Atoll, French

Frigate Shoals, Wake Atoll, Maug Caldera, Pearl and

Hermes Atoll, Maro Reef, Jarvis Island, Rose Atoll,

Kure Atoll. Additionally, international Pacific Islands

sites include: Chuuk (Micronesia), Moorea (French

Polynesia), Galapagos (Ecuador), Heron Island (Australia), Kimbe Bay (Papua New Guinea), Raja Ampat,

(Indonesia), Palau (Table 1.4).

NOAA will also collaborate with colleagues at

Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) to test and

deploy next-generation Honeywell Durafet® pH sensors at a subset of the sites where calcification rate

studies will be conducted (see below). The Durafet®

provides a valuable tool for studying CO2 dynamics

in coral reef ecosystems and will likely play a role in

many studies related to ocean acidification. An Ion

Sensitive Field Effect Transistor (ISFET) pH sensor has

been modified to operate at low power in an unattended setting. Though still developmental, the sensors have exhibited greatly improved stability, relative

to glass pH electrodes, in excess of two months in

the surface ocean of a high-productivity environment.

The glass electrode is a problematic device when operated in the ocean because it exhibits extremely high

electrical impedance which commonly drives stray

currents through the conductive seawater media creating ground loop problems. ISFETs, however, are

very low impedance devices. Reference electrodes are

another factor that may cause unpredictable behavior in the pH sensor response. Although the Durafet

appears to remain stable using its conventional internal reference electrode, the Martz lab commonly deploys a secondary reference electrode that appears to

exhibit even better stability in seawater (Martz et al.,

2010).

The many submarine volcanoes in the PIR provide

natural laboratories for the study of ocean acidification and other processes with global importance. Although the flux of carbon dioxide out of submarine

volcanoes is less than 2% of the anthropogenic source

(Holmen, 1992; Resing et al., 2004), the likelihood

that high fluxes of CO2 into the oceans at a range of

depths have been maintained for tens to thousands

of years at particular submarine volcanic sites means

that conditions of “volcanic ocean acidification” have

prevailed in some localities long enough to select

for organisms that can tolerate high CO2/low pH

environments (Tunnicliffe et al., 2009; Hall-Spencer

et al., 2008). Scientists from PMEL, PIFSC, and other

collaborators plan to expand systematic studies of

such ecosystems through a combination of monitoring (Pacific RAMP and OA-specific), targeted ecological studies, and exploration. A major component of

the research will be enhanced sampling and analysis

for carbonate chemistry, nutrients, and trace metals

around shallow vents in coral reef environments and

around other important benthic habitats.

Collectively, these research and monitoring observations will document spatial patterns and temporal

changes in aragonite and carbonate saturation states

across the nearshore and offshore waters of the PIR.

In addition to the above mentioned efforts focusing

specifically on carbonate chemistry, since 2001 CRED

has established a suite of long-term oceanographic

moorings to measure temperature, salinity, currents,

and wave energy at coral reefs across the Pacific Islands region. As a subset of this array, CRED has 23

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) buoys which telemeter

SST in near real time. The carbonate chemistry of the

Greater Caribbean Region has been modeled using

empirical relationships between surface ocean carbonate chemistry, satellite sea surface temperature,

and model-derived sea surface salinities (Lee et al.,

2006; Gledhill et al., 2008; 2009). Such a system would

be especially valuable in the PIR, where vast distances

make frequent cruises or tightly spaced moorings unfeasible. As the waters of the PIR include oceanographic conditions that violate assumptions used in

the Caribbean model, application of these techniques

across the Pacific will require further work to refine

the algorithms used. This suite of instruments will be

used to help develop and validate these algorithms to

calculate and subsequently map aragonite saturation

state in the Pacific Islands region.

4.1.2 Biological monitoring

4.1.2.1 Existing biological monitoring—coral reef

ecosystems

In the Pacific Islands region, PIFSC-CRED has initiated the early stages of a planned comprehensive

effort to monitor the long-term ecological impacts

of ocean acidification in conjunction with the above

efforts to establish baseline levels and monitor carbonate chemistry. For both of these components,

most of the ongoing efforts to date have focused on

coral reef ecosystems, which encompass the nesting and breeding habitats for endangered and threatened monk seals and sea turtles. Operationally, both
66 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

of these monitoring components are being operationalized primarily within the logistical infrastructure of Pacific RAMP, which conducts biennial interdisciplinary integrated coral reef ecosystem assessments and long-term monitoring of fish, corals, other

invertebrates, algae, and microbial communities in

the context of their benthic habitats and oceanographic environments across the entire PIR. Pacific

RAMP surveys include quantitative spatial and temporal monitoring of composition, abundance, distribution, size, and condition of non-cryptic biota, and

key oceanographic parameters influencing ecosystem

health, such as temperature, salinity, wave energy, nutrients, chlorophyll a, and turbidity (Figure 4.1).

In partnership with federal, state, and territorial

resource managers and academic partners, Pacific

RAMP cruises have been conducted in the NWHI

(2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, and

2009), in the MHI (2005, 2006 and 2008), in American

Samoa (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008), in Guam and CNMI

(2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009), and in the PRI-MNM

(2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008).

In addition, the Protected Species Division (PSD) of

the PIFSC has been conducting annual population assessments of Hawai’ian monk seals in the NWHI since

the early 1980s and intermittent aerial assessments

in the MHI in recent years. The PSD, in collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, has also

been monitoring nesting beaches for green sea turtles

at French Frigate Shoals in the NWHI since the mid1980s. The Fish Biology and Stock Assessment Division of PIFSC has been conducting annual or biennial

stock assessment surveys of spiny and slipper lobsters

at Necker Island and Maro Reef in the NWHI since the

mid-1980s.

4.1.2.2 Enhanced monitoring of the ecological

impacts of ocean acidification

In addition to maintaining on-going Pacific RAMP

and protected species monitoring in the PIR, which

are both essential components of this Research Plan,

NOAA plans to enhance monitoring efforts to understand the ecological impacts of OA by monitoring a taxonomically and ecologically diverse suite of

key management-relevant organisms and ecosystems.

The proposed monitoring efforts will provide important and timely information about changes in distributional patterns, community structure, growth rates,

and trophic interactions of benthic and pelagic community structures and protected species of the PIR in

response to OA and related synergistic threats.

Task 4.1.2: Implement a comprehensive program

for monitoring coral reef systems likely to be impacted by ocean acidification in the Pacific Islands.

As a vital component to understanding and addressing the direct ecological impacts of ocean acidification on natural reefs, it is necessary to assess and

monitor calcification and accretion rates of key reefbuilding organisms, particularly scleractinian corals

and crustose coralline algae. While several important laboratory experiments have been conducted

(Kuffner et al., 2007; Jokiel et al., 2008; Doney et al.,

2009a), surprisingly few studies have thus far focused on monitoring the direct impacts of lowering

pH on the calcification/accretion of corals and crustose coralline algae in natural reef environments. Recent laboratory experiments have revealed that some

zooxanthellate corals are capable of accreting calcium

carbonate even in highly corrosive (strongly undersaturated) seawater, provided the corals had access

to a steady supply of nutrients or food (Cohen et al.,

2009).

Predictions of coral reef community responses to

OA are complicated by the fact that reef organisms secrete species-specific types of calcium carbonate (i.e.,

aragonite, calcite, and high-Mg calcite); each of these

forms of CaCO3 have different dissolution thresholds. Thus, in order to understand the direct ecological impacts of OA on natural coral reef communities, it is necessary to have time series observations

of both carbonate chemistry/saturation states (outlined above) and the resulting calcification and accretion rates. In collaboration with SIO, PIFSC-CRED

will initiate the deployment of an extensive array

of jointly-developed Calcification Acidification Units

(CAUs) at existing long-term CRED benthic rapid ecological assessment sites in forereef habitats across the

∼50 islands/atolls surveyed during Pacific RAMP in

2010 and 2011 (Figure 4.2a). CAUs are simple 10

cm × 10 cm sandwiched PVC plates bolted together

and staked into the benthic substrate. They will be

deployed at existing long-term CRED benthic rapid

ecological assessment sites, in conjunction with water sampling and OA coral reef monitoring instruments for carbonate chemistry (Table 1.4). Upon recovery after 2-year deployments, comparative calcification rates will be directly determined and monitored in their natural reef environments across diverse oceanographic and habitat gradients in the PIR.

In addition to calcification rates, the continued

monitoring of the entire ecosystem reveals the true
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 67

Figure 4.1: Pacific RAMP integrated map of visual observations of fish biomass and benthic composition at coral reefs in

the Pacific Islands overlaid on remotely sensed chl a concentration from SeaWiFS ocean color. (Sizes of pie charts indicate

island-wide mean total reef fish biomass from NOAA Pacific RAMP rapid ecological assessment surveys over the period 2000–

2008). Composition of pie charts indicates mean island-wide benthic composition from Pacific RAMP benthic towed-diver

surveys over the period 2000–2008 (NOAA PIFSC CRED).

extent and breadth of not just the effects of a lower

ocean pH, but the changes in climate that may compound the issues—such as increased storm intensity and damage. Therefore comprehensive monitoring includes the continued study of benthic and

fish communities, and oceanographic properties such

as waves, currents, temperature, salinity, nutrients,

chlorophyll a, DIC, total alkalinity, and acoustics).

Use of satellite and in situ wave and current moorings are being used to develop wave metrics around

islands, to try and couple ecosystem and taxonomic

distributions, based on wave and current forcing—

shown to be the single most significant factor affecting distributions of reefs (Dollar, 1982; Grigg, 1998;

Storlazzi et al., 2005). Climate change has been attributed to the increase in the intensity and frequency

of storms around the world. Increasing the rate and

impact of episodic storms could impact growth rates

of corals even further, potentially working in concert

with ocean acidification to slow growth rates of corals.

4.1.2.3 Existing monitoring of cryptic species and

biodiversity effects of ocean acidification

Ecological theory suggests that conservation of biological diversity enhances ecosystem resilience and

sustainability of ecosystem goods and services. As

part of both Pacific RAMP and the Census of Marine Life’s Census of Coral Reef Ecosystems (CReefs)

project, CRED and multi-institutional partners have

initiated a global assessment of cryptic biodiversity

associated with coral reefs, often calcifying invertebrates and algae, to serve as an essential baseline

by which to measure changes in benthic community structure in response to climate change, generally, and ocean acidification, in particular. To date,

CRED and partners have deployed an array of over

400 standardized Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS, Fig. 4.2b) at select islands/atolls across

the PIR, Coral Triangle, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean

Sea (Fig. 4.3, Brainard et al., 2009). These efforts will

also be used to examine the role of biodiversity in sus-
68 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Figure 4.2: (a) Photos of Calcification Acidification Unit (CAU) deployed in reef substrate to monitor calcification rates and

(b) Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structure (ARMS) deployed in reef substrate to assess and monitor cryptic biodiversity.

Photos credit NOAA PIFSC CRED, D. Merritt.

Figure 4.3: Map showing the current and nearterm deployment locations of Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS)

for establishing global baselines of cryptic coral reef biodiversity. Courtesy NOAA-PIFSC-CRED.

taining ecosystem goods and services and enhancing

ecosystem resilience.

4.1.2.4 Expanded monitoring of cryptic species

and biodiversity effects of ocean

acidification

Task 4.1.3: Monitor cryptic species and biodiversity for the effects of ocean acidification in the

Pacific Islands.

As part of the OA strategy in the PIR, NOAA will initiate analyses of ARMS to establish baseline assessments of the cryptic and poorly known biodiversity

of coral reefs. In FY2010 and FY2011, CRED will

for the first time, recover and initiate biodiversity

analyses from the ∼300 ARMS currently deployed in

coral reef habitats in American Samoa (including RAMNM), PRI-MNM, P-MNM, main Hawai’ian Islands,

Guam, and CNMI. Organisms will be photographed

and preserved in alcohol for barcoding and mass parallel molecular sequencing by collaborators at Smithsonian Institution, University of Florida, San Diego

State University, and Moss Landing Marine Laboratory. As the ARMS are recovered for the baseline assessments, they will be replaced to initiate long-term

monitoring of biodiversity impacts of ocean acidification. Water samples will be collected at all ARMS deployment locations to concurrently monitor changes
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 69

in carbonate chemistry and community composition

over time.

As part of NOAA’s OA research strategy internationally, NOAA will be collaborating with international

partners in employing ARMS to assess to assess baseline spatial patterns of cryptic biodiversity and monitor temporal changes in diversity in response to ocean

acidification.

In addition to monitoring the biodiversity impacts

of OA to nearshore coral reef ecosystems, NOAA will

initiate baseline assessments and long-term monitoring of the composition, abundance, and distribution of plankton in the pelagic waters of the PIR

using Continuous Plankton Recorders (CPR, Warner

and Hays, 1994) or equivalent standardized methods

that allow comparative spatial and temporal analyses

across oceanographic gradients. Through collaborations between PIFSC and the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Sciences (SAHFOS), NOAA plans

to establish repeat CPR transects during routine research and monitoring cruises aboard the NOAA ships

Oscar Elton Sette, Hi’ialakai, and Ka’imimoana, in

conjunction with Pacific RAMP, fisheries and cetacean

surveys, and maintenance of the TAO Array. Each of

these ships will also be outfitted with shipboard pCO2

systems to allow concurrent observations of surface

carbonate chemistry. The first phase of this effort,

which will span the period 2011—2016, will establish a baseline assessment of planktonic diversity during repeat transects along the Hawai’ian Archipelago,

between Hawai’i and the Marianas, and between

Hawai’i and American Samoa.

Biodiversity and cetacean responses to ocean acidification will also be monitored acoustically using Ecological Acoustic Recorders (EARs), developed jointly

by University of Hawai’i’s Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology (HIMB) and CRED (Lammers et al.,

2008) and High-Frequency Acoustic Recording Packages (HARP), developed at SIO (Wiggins and Hildebrand, 2007). EARs will be used to continuously

record and monitor time series observations of biological activity on coral reefs acoustically. Following the methods of biodiversity appraisal by Sueur

et al. (2008) for forest ecosystems, CRED and HIMB

will acoustically monitor proxies for coral reef health

and biodiversity, as well as nearshore cetacean activity, using changes in the intensity, spectral composition, acoustic signatures, and timing of biological

sounds. Temperature and other oceanographic sensors deployed with these instruments allows coupling

between the physical and biological changes on the

reef.

In addition to the biodiversity impacts of ocean

acidification, long-term monitoring of ocean sound

levels using EARs and HARPs (in deeper water habitats) will provide essential time series observations of

ambient sound levels across the PIR to assess whether

predicted increases in sound propagation characteristics in the ocean due to decreasing pH actually occur. These observations will be an essential component to understanding the impacts of cetacean populations across the PIR.

Task 4.1.4: Monitor microbial communities for

effects of ocean acidification in the Pacific Islands.

As the foundation for most of the biogeochemical cycling of energy through marine ecosystems,

it is necessary to establish a robust program to assess and monitor microbial community composition, abundance, and distribution patterns to determine and better predict the broader ecosystem implications of ocean acidification. Though it is not

known whether or not dominant microbes can or will

adapt or evolve over the likely timescale of ocean

pH change, time series observations of dominant

microrganisms in relation to other ecologically important and management-relevant species, such as

corals, macroinvertebrates, fish, and marine mammals, should be initiated immediately. In the PIR,

NOAA will significantly expand upon limited ongoing collaborative exploratory surveys of marine microbes with San Diego State University (SDSU) to include more comprehensive monitoring at all Pacific

RAMP rapid ecological assessment sites where carbonate chemistry, ARMS, and CAUs are currently conducted. To assess the immense diversity of the microbial community, microbial sampling will utilize existing molecular sequencing facilities and capabilities at

SDSU and HIMB.

4.1.3 Integrating oceanographic and

biological monitoring

As described above, the physical, biogeochemical,

and biological monitoring outlined in this PIR OA Research Plan are tightly integrated operationally to allow concurrent and complementary observations and

seamless integration during analyses. Each of these

datasets will encompass the respective subregions

(Hawai’ian, Mariana, American Samoa Archipelagos

and the PRI-MNM), habitats, and depths, in order

to effectively map and monitor the natural fluctua-
70 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

tions of biogeochemical and ecological parameters.

Using pelagic and nearshore CTD and water sampling data from spatial surveys and moored instruments at OA coral reef monitoring stations will provide essential information about the calcite and aragonite saturation states and the “halo” buffering effect of calcium carbonate covered islands and submerged banks. Nearshore work will require small boat

deployments and SCUBA diving capacity to continue

the benthic monitoring program already in place (Pacific RAMP), and will be used to deploy nearshore

sampling instruments, ARMS, CAUs, EARs, and the

collection of coral cores and samples for CAT scan

analyses. These moored biological monitoring instruments will be co-located with the moored physical and biogeochemical instruments to allow interdisciplinary integration and improved understanding.

Research cruises aboard the NOAA ships Oscar Elton Sette, Hi’ialakai, and Ka’imimoana will be required to conduct the pelagic and nearshore CTD

and water sampling transects, as well as continuous

flow-through pCO2 observations around the Pacific

Islands.

4.2 Organism Response to Ocean

Acidification (Theme 2)

4.2.1 Species response laboratory

experiments

Task 4.2.1: Conduct laboratory experiment to estimate the effect of ocean acidification on important species in the Pacific Islands.

There is an urgent need to continue and expand upon

on-going controlled exposure experiments in laboratories and mesocosms to quantify and understand the

adverse impacts of OA on individual species or groups

of species. In the PIR, these controlled experiments

will initially focus on key reef-building species, such

as the 75 corals currently being petitioned for listing

under the Endangered Species Act, and the primary

sand-producing calcareous algae needed to maintain

critical nesting habitat for endangered monk seals

and sea turtles in the region. The proposed mesocosm experiments will primarily be conducted as a

collaborative effort between PIFSC and HIMB using

excellent existing facilities that HIMB has developed

over the past decade (Kuffner et al., 2007; Jokiel et al.,

2008). These experiments will examine responses of

Organisms of Near-Term Focus

Reef-building corals and crustose coralline algae

Coral reef biodiversity

Critically endangered Hawai’ian monk seals,

critical habitat

Threatened hawksbill and green sea turtles,

critical habitat

Protected cetacean species

these priority taxa to the individual and synergistic

effects of changes in carbonate chemistry (including
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 71

pH), temperature, salinity, nutrients, light, flow conditions, and other key environmental parameters.

In order to understand the broadscale ecosystem

impacts of OA, fundamental research is needed to examine the role microbes play in global biogeochemical cycles. In the PIR, NOAA will initiate collaborative laboratory experiments to examine the microbial

responses to changing carbonate chemistry and environmental parameters in coral reef ecosystems. These

efforts will focus on the understanding and improving

our ability to predict how marine microbes will be affected by increased CO2 and associated decreases in

pH. Elevated CO2 levels increase photosynthesis rates

in some but not all microbial species, and laboratory studies suggest that marine nitrogen fixation may

also be enhanced. These laboratory experiments are

needed to begin understanding the broader ecosystem impacts of OA on coral reef systems, including

sand-production dynamics.

4.2.2 Reef response in situ experiments

Task 4.2.2: Conduct in situ experiments manipulating CO2 to estimate the effect of ocean acidification in the natural environment.

Though the controlled laboratory experiments described above are immensely important for understanding organism responses to ocean acidification,

they necessarily cannot fully simulate the ecological

responses that will occur in nature due to their inherent simplification of the complexities and synergistic interactions in nature. Rather than risking unintended ecological consequences of direct manipulation of nature, CRED and PMEL plan to conduct intensive ecological and biogeochemical studies at shallow hydrothermal venting sites, such as Maug caldera,

in the geologically active Northern Mariana Islands.

These focused efforts would closely examine shortterm and historic (see below) ecological responses

to fine-scale gradients in pH, carbonate chemistry,

as well as nutrients and metals, around the vent

sites. This research will examine the role microbes

play in biogeochemical cycling, energy transduction,

and related ecosystem processes under varying carbonate chemistry conditions. This has been one

of the main themes of chemical/microbiological research on deeper hydrothermal vent systems, including those elsewhere within the MT-MNM. Microbial

oceanographers will make field observations of the

distributions, abundances, diversity and metabolic

activities of microorganisms at the selected sites. As

understanding of the existing conditions increases,

these studies will then examine responses of organisms distant from the vent sites to locations adjacent to the vent sites. Complementing the laboratory experiments, these natural experiments will provide unique insights into the potential future of coral

reef ecosystems under increasingly acidic ocean conditions predicted over the next century.

4.2.3 Estimate historical response to

variation in saturation state

Task 4.2.3: Estimate historical changes to corals

as a response to fluctuating CO2.

Coral sclerochronology of both branching and massive reef-building scleractinian corals will be used

to retrospectively assess historical growth and accretion rates. The presence of annual density bands

in coral skeletons provide historical records of linear extension rates, skeletal density, and calcification rates over the often long lifespan of many reefbuilding corals. Historical records of calcification and

growth rates will advance our understanding of how

calcification rates have changed since the industrial

revolution. Similar to counting the rings of a tree,

historical annual accretion rates can be determined

from coral cores. In collaboration with Woods Hole

Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), CRED will initiate a pilot coring project in 2010 and 2011 to collect short (∼10 cm) cores at a few select locations

across nutrient (upwelling) and latitudinal gradients

in the PRI-MNM. The cores will be analyzed using

non-destructive CAT scan image analysis techniques

that allow an examination of the 3-dimensional internal structure of the coral core and its associated

growth rates (Cohen et al., 2009; Saenger et al., 2009).

After these initial pilot efforts, this project will be expanded spatially across important oceanographic gradients across the entire PIR and to include coring

a small number of ancient massive corals to allow

examination of calcification rates since before CO2

emissions dramatically increased during the industrial revolution.

In addition to examining calcification rates of massive corals using cores, the CAT scan technique will be

employed to examine calcification and accretion rates

of relatively short-lived branching corals across multiple taxa. This is important since there is no a priori

reason to believe that short-lived (years to decades)

coral species will respond similarly to corals that have
72 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

survived for centuries. From an immediate conservation management perspective, efforts will focus initially on examining recent accretion rates of select

coral taxa currently being petitioned for listing under

the Endangered Species Act.

4.2.4 Experiments on beach forming

processes

Task 4.2.4: Conduct experiments on how beach

forming processes will be affected by ocean acidification.

Due to the urgency to better understand and predict

the fate of critical nesting beach habitats for critically endangered Hawai’ian monk seals and multiple

species of threatened sea turtles, it is important to initiate focused laboratory experiments to examine the

direct impacts of increasing CO2 (decreasing pH) on

many of the dominant sand-producing calcareous algae, as well as the biogeochemical processes of existing sand deposits.

4.2.5 Response experiments for cetaceans

Task 4.2.5: Behavior response experiments of

cetaceans to increased ocean sound propagation

with ocean acidification

NOAA will initiate literature reviews of known acoustic behavioral patterns of Pacific Islands cetacean

species to improve our understanding of auditory

ranges, behavioral uses (navigation, foraging, reproduction, defense, etc.), and potential acoustic vulnerabilities. In the longer term, and based on the

gap analyses provided by these reviews, additional research and testing may be proposed.

4.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem

Models (Theme 3)

Task 4.3.1: Develop finescale, wave-driven hydrodynamic circulation models for coral reef

habitats throughout the Pacific Islands region.

Biogeochemical processes in coral reef habitats are

dynamic interactions involving coupled physical,

chemical, and biological processes each working on

different space and time scales. In order to develop

effective predictive models of the biogeochemistry

(for calcification rates), sand transport dynamics (for

nesting beaches for monk seals and turtles), and numerous other ecosystem processes (larvae transport

and recruitment, coral bleaching, coastal sedimentation, etc.) it is essential to have well-developed hydrodynamic models that can predict wave and tidally

driven circulation patterns at fine spatial scales (∼10

m). Therefore, NOAA’s PIFSC will significantly expand

preliminary hydrodynamic modeling efforts (Hoeke

et al., 2010) by establishing internal scientific capacity

to sustain an on-going hydrodynamic model development effort for the PIR. This effort will require a fulltime hydrodynamic modeler, computing infrastructure, and an inventory of acoustic Doppler current

profilers, wave and tide recorders, and other oceanographic instrumentation to conduct intensive hydrodynamic surveys at select reef sites that will be used

to develop and validate the models. Due to the complex flow-topography interactions in reef habitats, it is

also important to acquire high-resolution bathymetry

for each of the areas to be modeled. The in situ

instrumentation will be rotated to different prioritized coral reef sites around the PIR to repeatedly develop and validate models for the different reef areas.

These modeling efforts will provide lagoon and reef

residence times for developing biogeochemical models, sand transport models, and ecosystem interaction

models for reefs across the PIR.

Task 4.3.2: Develop biogeochemical models to

predict Pacific Islands ecosystem responses to

ocean acidification.

Biogeochemical processes of coral reefs involve

complex physical, chemical, and biological interactions that are dependent upon boundary layer dynamics, benthic composition, water flow characteristics, and seawater chemistry. In order to assess,

predict, and develop effective mitigation strategies to

minimize the ecosystem impacts of OA, it is necessary to understand and develop biogeochemical models at a range of spatial and temporal scales. In the

PIR, NOAA plans to initiate the long-term development of a biogeochemical modeling program that will

be closely integrated with the hydrodynamic (Task

4.3.1) and ecosystem modeling efforts (Task 4.3.3),

as well as the OA (carbonate chemistry) and biological monitoring efforts. As this effort will necessar-
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 73

ily require internal capacity building, it is essential to

have full-time biogeochemist positions established at

PIFSC to coordinate this interdisciplinary OA effort in

the PIR, and in collaboration with other regional OA

teams across the country. At large spatial scales (basin

and regional), this effort will utilize ocean circulation

models, satellite imagery of surface conditions, and

shipboard spatial carbonate chemistry surveys across

the Pacific to develop improved hindcast and prediction models of saturation state, following methods developed by Gledhill et al. (2008) and Gledhill et al.

(2009).

Task 4.3.3: Refine existing trophic interaction

ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim) to predict ecosystem impacts of ocean acidification in

the Pacific Islands.

In 1984, J. Polovina and his colleagues at PIFSC

developed EcoPath, an innovative marine ecosystem

model of the coral reef ecosystem at French Frigate

Shoals (Polovina, 1984). It was the first model to apply

a type of statistics called “path analysis” to the field of

marine ecology. EcoPath estimates a biomass budget

for the marine ecosystem, in a static situation under

the assumption that the ecosystem is at equilibrium

conditions. The model accurately identifies ecological relationships, and helps untangle complex marine

ecosystems. The model can be used to estimate the

direction and strength of all factors that influence the

way ecosystems function, and can be adapted to help

locate marine protected areas, and model the effects

of changing climate on a coral reef ecosystem.

Much of the modeling work on ecosystems has

been through the use of the output of global climate

models as drivers for multispecies or trophic models. While these studies have produced insights into

potential effects of climate change, feedback mechanisms have typically been inadequate. Ecosystems involve complex direct and indirect pathways between

their many ecological, physical, biogeochemical, and

human components. To adequately model and predict ecosystem impacts of OA, the non-stationary nature of the ecosystems and their dynamics needs to

be addressed explicitly. In the PIR, NOAA will establish a long-term ecosystem modeling team at PIFSC,

along with NOAA and academic partners, to examine

and predict the ecosystem impacts of OA in both coral

reef and pelagic ecosystems across the Pacific using

the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) ecosystem modeling suite. We plan to couple EwE with biogeochemical models, and through them global climate models (GCMs), to begin to build models that have dynamic feedback connections. Though there are significant scientific challenges involved in successfully

and seamlessly coupling models with different temporal, spatial, ecological, anthropogenic, and process

resolutions, this long-term effort must be an essential

component to our OA implementation plan.

Task 4.3.4: Develop coupled sand transport and

biogeochemistry models to predict the impacts

of ocean acidification on critical nesting beach

habitats.

Critically endangered Hawai’ian monk seals and

threatened sea turtles require sandy beaches for pupping and nesting, respectively. In the remote PMNM, sea level rise and other processes are threatened to eliminate many, and possibly all of these

critical nesting beaches over the next century (Baker

et al., 2006). In addition to sea level rise, these

beaches are potentially threatened by decreased sand

production, as OA is predicted to decrease calcification rates of sand-producing calcareous algae and

corals that comprise the large majority of these nesting beaches. As conservation of these endangered

species is among NOAA’s highest management priorities, NOAA plans to initiate the development of

coupled hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and climate

models to predict the future status of these nesting

beach habitats in the NWHI. This work will involve

collaborative work among PIFSC, UH, and the U.S.

Geological Survey (Storlazzi et al., 2005). The necessary hydrodynamic field work for this effort was described in task 4.3.1. In addition, aerial LiDAR and repeat satellite imagery will be acquired to provide the

finescale bathymetry needed the model development

and validation.

Task 4.3.5: Develop sound propagation models

to predict the impacts of ocean acidification on

protected cetacean species across the Pacific Islands region.

Recent research has demonstrated that lowfrequency sound propagation in the ocean will

increase significantly with decreasing pH as ocean

acidification unfolds over the next century (Hester

et al., 2008; Ilyina et al., 2010). These increases in

sound propagation will mean that sound travels

further and that the ocean will become noisier. The

impacts of these changes in ocean sound propagation

on the 46 known species of cetaceans in the PIR are

not currently known. To address these unknowns,
74 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

NOAA will complement the acoustic monitoring

outlined in Task 4.1.3 and the behavioral characterizations outlined in Task 4.2.5 by developing regional

sound propagation models under a range of climate

and OA model scenarios.

4.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

Task 4.4: Estimate the impact of ocean acidification on socioeconomic activities.

Ecosystem services in the Pacific Islands are economically dominated by tourism and commercial fisheries;

however the natural shoreline defense and deep cultural roots embedded in reef systems as a subsistence

resource, although more difficult to evaluate, are also

vital to island communities across the region. The

economic value of Main Hawai’ian Island reefs alone

are estimated at nearly $10 billion, with an average

annual benefit of $385 million (Cesar et al., 2003).

The socioeconomic impacts of projected changes to

nearshore coral reef ecosystems, commercial, recreational, and subsistence fishery resources, protected

species, beaches, and cultural identity in the Pacific

Islands will be examined through retrospective analyses of past changes across the region and through

initiation of regional surveys of key demographics of

communities user groups in the main Hawai’ian Islands, Guam, CNMI, and American Samoa. This work

will be conducted by sociologists and economists at

PIFSC, in collaboration with NOAA and academic

partners across the PIR. The surveys in the respective subregions (Hawai’i, Guam, CNMI, and American Samoa) will require either extensive contracting

or travel.

4.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

Task 4.5: Develop data and information tools for

evaluating the consequences of ocean acidification in the PIR to create more effective management strategies.

Database infrastructure and agreement on standardization of data format, metadata, and storage, is vital

for the smooth running of this project. Since NOAA

PIFSC CRED has extensive experience and capability developed for managing the complex interdisciplinary mapping, monitoring, oceanographic, and

biodiversity data of Pacific RAMP and CReefs using

a fully relational Oracle database, that is proposed as

the baseline by which to expand and build upon. This

effort will identify at least one full-time data manager for the organization and upkeep of the expanding database and one full-time applications programmer to ensure appropriate tools are continually developed and refined to ensure that all data are disseminated broadly to stakeholders and the public in userfriendly graphical formats in a timely manner. These

positions should be implemented as the early states

of this effort.

All of the data gathered as part of this Ocean Acidification Research Plan for the Pacific Islands will be

promptly disseminated to the national ocean acidification information center, as well as the NOAA

NESDIS National Oceanographic Data Center, the Pacific Integrated Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS),

the Surface Ocean pCO2 Atlas (SOCAT) coastal effort overseen by the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) (http://ioc3.unesco.

org/ioccp/UW.html). Biodiversity data will be submitted to the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS).

4.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Task 4.6: Implement an education and outreach

program in the PIR to increase public understanding of ocean acidification.

A key goal of the PIR OA Research Plan is to effectively engage policy makers, resource managers, key

stakeholders, and the general public, both in island

communities and on the mainland U.S. This engagement will focus primarily on identifying and developing audience-specific information products through a

diverse range of multi-media communication tools,

including social networking tools, public meetings,

workshops, and local and national news outlets.

These efforts will be led by NOAA public affairs professionals at the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, particularly the Papahanaumoku  ̄ akea Marine  ̄

National Monument, NOAA Fisheries, NOAA Coral

Reef Conservation Program, the NOAA Climate Service, NOAA IDEA Center, NOAA Pacific Services Center, Hawai’i Sea Grant, and the many federal, state
Chapter 4. Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 75

and territorial agencies (see collaborators). In local jurisdictions, field staff and existing scientific and

management liaisons in the local jurisdictions will be

asked to communicate findings and solicit suggestions for effective public engagement at local levels.

Timely dissemination of data and data information

products will be made available online shortly after

collection, and telemetered data are available near

real time on the internet.

Stakeholders, as well as the public at large, will be

kept informed about recent discoveries about ocean

acidification from on-going work and other findings

internationally on the topic. Efforts must be made

to engage local communities and schools to actively

participate in the process of addressing the problem

of ocean acidification through “think globally act locally” activities. NOAA must actively strive to provide unbiased scientifically credible information that

stakeholders can rely upon to make challenging policy decisions effecting local, regional, and national issues. It is important that managers and stakeholders

understand that they must be part of the solution locally if society is to address the issue of ocean acidification nationally and internationally.

4.7 Collaborators
76 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Pacific Islands Region Collaborators

Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Coral Reef Conservation Program

Coral Reef Watch

Pacific Services Center

Papah ̄anaumoku ̄akea Marine National Monument

Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument

Fagatele Bay National Marine Sanctuary

Hawai’ian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary

Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council

University of Hawai’i (UH) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology

UH Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology

Hawai’i Sea Grant

University of California, San Diego—Scripps Institute of Oceanography

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Smithsonian Institution—National Museum of Natural History

University of Guam—Marine Lab

University of Florida—Florida Museum of Natural History

University of Miami—Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Hawai’i Pacific University

Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources

Waikiki Aquarium

American Samoa Department of Marine and Wildlife Resources

American Samoa Department of Commerce

National Park of American Samoa

Guam Division of Aquatic Resources

CNMI Division of Fish and Wildlife

CNMI Division of Environmental Quality

CNMI Coastal Resource Management Office

The Nature Conservancy

Marine Conservation Biology Institute

Australian Institute of Marine Sciences

Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science
5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region

Ocean Acidification Research Plan

Dwight K. Gledhill, Theresa Goedeke, Kevin

Helmle, James Hendee, Anna Hilting, Elizabeth

Jewett, Brian Keller, Derek Manzello, Margaret

Miller, Erica Rule, Bill Sunda, Fran Van Dolah,

and Rik Wanninkhof

5.0 Ocean Acidification in the

Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of

Mexico Region

This chapter presents NOAA’s research strategy

toward addressing ocean acidification (OA)

within the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coastal Region, Greater Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico (henceforth denoted as SER/GOM). As the precise effects of

OA on the SER/GOM remains largely unknown, our

initial efforts must be heavily geared toward addressing fundamental research and monitoring needs.

However, these research and monitoring efforts are

intended to establish the requisite scientific understandings necessary to forecast socioeconomic consequences. This chapter offers a strategy directed

toward the unique challenges and priorities of the

SER/GOM in regards to the impacts of OA on marine

ecosystems and associated eco-services (e.g., fisheries

and eco-tourism). These include evaluating the regional consequences from direct and indirect impacts

on shellfish, fishing, and tourism industries.

5.0.1 Regional planning drivers

The Gulf of Mexico Alliance (http://

gulfofmexicoalliance.org/) has recently enacted

an Action Plan II (http://gulfofmexicoalliance.

org/pdfs/ap2_final2.pdf) to address the most

serious ecosystem threats to the Gulf. The plan

calls for providing better information to coastal

residents about the potential impacts of climate

change. The Governors’ South Atlantic Alliance: A

Call To Action Framework (North and South Carolina,

Georgia, Florida) emphasizes a significant need in the

region for standardized, integrated, and accessible

spatial and temporal data for the management of

coastal marine resources in this region. The alliances

will enhance collaborations necessary to address

region-wide ecosystem issues. In addition, protected

resource management plans developed by the South

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Fishery management

councils should include OA-relevant impacts where

appropriate. This also applies to the management

plans of the three National Marine Sanctuaries in

the region (Flower Garden Banks, Florida Keys, and

Gray’s Reef ).

5.0.2 Regional changes in carbonate

chemistry

The warm tropical oceanic waters of the South Atlantic and Caribbean exhibit some of the highest carbonate mineral saturation states of global oceans and

are expected to remain supersaturated with respect to

most carbonate mineral phases for the foreseeable future. However, due to the projected decline in carbonate mineral saturation states and experimentally

demonstrated positive relationship between the degree of supersaturation and calcification rates (e.g.,

Langdon and Atkinson, 2005), OA will likely impact

NOAA living marine resources within the region. Carbonate ion concentrations have already declined in

tropical oceanic waters by more than 20% over the

industrial period (Orr et al., 2005) with corresponding changes in carbonate mineral saturation. This

degree of saturation is currently decreasing across

the SER/GOM at a rate of about 3% per decade and

exhibits considerable spatial and seasonal variability

(Gledhill et al., 2008, Figure 2).

While “ocean acidification” typically refers to the

global-scale changes occurring in surface ocean

77
78 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Description

The NOAA Southeast and Caribbean (SER) component of this regional plan covers the U.S. coast from North Carolina

through Texas, including the U.S. Caribbean and Puerto Rico. This region is composed of the oceanic and coastal

zones of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and associated

marine environments. The region contains over 18,000 miles of coastline, with extensive riverine, estuarine, marsh,

barrier island, mangrove, shallow coral reefs, and mesophotic and extensive deep-sea coral ecosystems. They support a

diverse assemblage of marine life, with 18 protected marine species, over 600 marine managed areas, including unique

mid-depth (80–100 m) reefs of the Oculina Banks and the western hemisphere’s second largest barrier reef system. The

only two ESA-listed coral species (Elkhorn [Acropora palmata] and Staghorn [A. cervicornis]) and the only ESA-listed

marine plant species (Johnsons’ seagrass [Halophila johnsonii]) occur exclusively in the SER/GOM. Important oceanic

circulation systems, including the Loop Current, Florida Current, and Gulf Stream, have an important influence on the

biological, chemical, and physical characteristics of many of the region’s ecosystems. Climate is warm-temperate to

tropical.

The NOAA Gulf of Mexico (GOM) region includes the oceanic and coastal zones of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi,

Louisiana, and Texas. The Gulf of Mexico is a 218,000 square mile semi-closed, oceanic basin that is connected to the

Atlantic Ocean by the Straits of Florida and to the Caribbean Sea by the Yucatan Channel. The Gulf of Mexico is the

ninth largest water body in the world and teems with sea life that includes unexplored deep-sea corals, unique deep

sea brine seep communities, and one of the most pristine and healthy coral reef ecosystems of the Caribbean at the

Flower Garden Banks. Watersheds from a total of 33 of the 48 contiguous states drain into the Gulf of Mexico through

the Mississippi River watershed. The Gulf’s coastal region contains half the coastal wetlands in the U.S. (17.2 million

acres of marsh and nearly 30,000 miles of tidal shoreline) and is home to abundant wildlife resources, including colonial

waterfowl rookeries, sea turtles, oysters, and fisheries. In addition, two species of sturgeon, the Gulf and the Short nose

sturgeon, and the Small-tooth Sawfish, all of which are native to this region and could be affected by OA due to the

vulnerability of their prey, are listed as either endangered or threatened. These resources are supported by rich natural

habitats, including bays, estuaries, tidal flats, barrier islands, hard and soft wood forests, and mangrove swamps. The

Gulf region’s ecological communities are essential to sustaining nationally vital economic and recreational industries.

chemistry in direct response to changing atmospheric

chemistry, there are many natural processes that can

influence seawater carbonate chemistry on local and

regional scales that need to be considered when

evaluating the potential long-term consequences of

OA. These can include changes in seawater carbonate chemistry attributed to biological processes (e.g.,

respiratory production or photosynthetic removal of

CO2), advection or mixing (both lateral and vertical) of waters with different chemical compositions,

fresh water inputs, gas exchange processes, and other

anthropogenically influenced processes unrelated to

changes in atmospheric CO2. Eutrophication, algal

blooms, and hypoxia are common features of estuaries and coastal waters of the SER/GOM and can exacerbate acidification in surface sediments and bot-
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 79

tom waters. In addition, changes in alkalinity and calcium ion concentrations due to river or ground water

inputs can affect carbonate mineral saturation states.

Such processes contribute to considerable variability

within the coastal, coral reef, and estuarine systems

throughout the SER/GOM.

5.0.3 Eutrophication and hypoxia

Eutrophication and associated oxygen depletion and

acidification of bottom waters are widespread in the

SER/GOM. A large area near the mouth of the Mississippi River in the Gulf of Mexico develops hypoxia

(dissolved oxygen below 2 mg/l) in the bottom waters every summer due to large inputs of nutrientrich river water from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya

Rivers. The areal extent of the hypoxic zone has increased 3-fold since systematic monitoring began in

1985 (Rabalais et al., 2007; 1999). Similar but smaller

regions of hypoxia also develop in (or are a potential concern for) many euthrophic SER/GOM estuaries (an estimated total of 151 systems along the U.S.

Gulf coast and another 109 along the Southeast Atlantic coast; (Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources (CENR), 2010). Eutrophic estuaries are

prone to hypoxia as a result of the input of nutrientrich river water that fuels algal blooms. In estuaries,

the inflowing river water flows out over the denser

saline water, causing a pycnocline which prevents

oxygenated surface waters from mixing with bottom

waters. The particulate organic matter from the algal

blooms settles to the bottom and is respired by bacteria, which simultaneously remove oxygen and produce CO2. Although hypoxia has been well studied

and linked to nutrient enrichment in many eutrophic

estuaries and coastal systems, the combined effects of

hypoxia and ocean acidification has been little studied. Hypoxia and acidification are known separately

to adversely impact economically important shellfish

and finfish (Lewitus et al., 2009; Green et al., 2004;

Kurihara, 2008), and the combined effect of the two

stressors may be particularly deleterious.

5.0.4 Vulnerable species and ecosystems in

the SER/GOM

In this section we review potential impacts of OA on

some of the SER/GOM’s ecologically sensitive and/or

economically important marine species, including

molluscs (oysters and clams), crustaceans (shrimp

and blue crabs), reef-building corals, and calcifying

macro- and microalgae.

5.0.4.1 Coral reefs

A key concern with regard to OA and coral reef ecosystems is the maintenance of net positive rates of annual accretion (reef growth). Any decline in calcification or increase in net erosion or dissolution could

compromise the persistence of reef systems within

the SER/GOM because rates of accretion on healthy,

undisturbed reefs are known to only slightly outpace

rates of reef loss due to physical and biological erosion (see Glynn, 1997 for review). Significant historical declines in growth rates of Caribbean corals

have been documented (Edmunds, 2007; Bak et al.,

2009), and likely result from a combination of local

and global changes, with the specific effects of OA being difficult to discern. While oceanic surface waters

in the SER/GOM will remain supersaturated with respect to aragonite for several centuries (e.g., Ω > 1),

net dissolution of coral reefs could be reached much

sooner (around Ω > 3 [Manzello et al., 2008; HoeghGuldberg et al., 2007]). Dissolution of reef structures

and sediments could be a concern well above saturation as well because most reefs contain appreciable amounts of more soluble high-Mg calcite (Morse

et al., 2006). Furthermore, diurnal variations in CO2

concentrations within the reef zone can be 10 times

that of oceanic waters due to high rates of photosynthesis, calcification, and respiration. High net rates

of respiration at night can lead to critically high CO2

concentrations and low pH that may result in periods

when many reefs exhibit net dissolution.

Beyond the direct calcification/dissolution concerns to coral reefs, there are several other effects

that need to be considered. Several incidences of

mass coral bleaching due primarily to thermal stress

have occurred in recent decades in the SER/GOM

(McWilliams et al., 2005). Recent findings suggest that

OA may act to lower thermal thresholds for bleaching (Anthony et al., 2008) and thereby contribute to

coral bleaching events. It is possible that decreased

Ωarag values could contribute to population declines

in coral species. Caribbean reef-building corals have

very low rates of recruitment and OA might further inhibit recruitment rates owing to the increased costs

of calcification in energy-limited and temperaturestressed larval and adult corals in low Ωarag waters.

Recruitment could be adversely affected by declines

in gamete production (Cohen and Holcomb, 2009),

fertilization success, and larval development and survival rates.

The SER/GOM is also home to extensive deep-sea

coral ecosystems (Lumsden et al., 2007), which may

exceed shallow coral reefs in spatial extent. They sup-
80 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

port extensive fisheries production and are thus targeted in greatly expanded spatial management areas

(Habitat Areas of Particular Concern) by the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council. Due to their position nearer the aragonite saturation horizon (ASH),

they may experience greater threat and more rapid

impacts from OA than their shallower counterparts

(Guinotte et al., 2006). Depth and inaccessibility

means that the biology and ecology of these ecosystems is relatively little known, but the lesser diversity

of deep-sea scleractina and their greater exposure to

reduced saturation state threats make them an important model system to address in OA research.

5.0.4.2 Shellfish

Shrimp, crabs, and mollusc fisheries represent important economic resources in the SER/GOM. Cooley and

Doney (2009) estimate the entire $600 million commercial fishery in the Gulf and the entire $550 million

commercial fishery along the Atlantic coast may be

affected by OA. In addition to their commercial importance, many shellfish such as oysters and shrimp

are of central ecological significance in their respective coastal and estuarine habitats. Oysters are a historically important commercial and recreational fishery in the Carolinas and Gulf region, and state and

federal agencies have allocated significant resources

toward oyster restoration. Oyster reefs provide habitat for a range of marine species and help stabilize

shorelines. Their viability depends on their ability

to vertically accrete at a rate sufficient to maintain

the reefs above the sediments. Oysters are significant consumers of marine microalgae in southeast estuaries and play an important role in their removal,

helping to maintain water clarity and prevent algal

blooms.

5.0.4.3 Marine plants

Seagrass meadows are often found in close proximity to corals and their ecosystem functions are interdependent. By increasing seawater pH, seagrass photosynthesis can significantly increase the calcification

rate of calcareous reef algae (Semesi et al., 2009).

This has led some researchers to speculate that dense,

shallow, highly productive seagrass meadows can mitigate potential effects of OA on seagrass-associated

organisms, including corals (Semesi et al., 2009). Extensive seagrass beds are found in SER/GOM estuaries and coastal shelves and may perform a similar

mitigating effect on OA in these environments. Seagrass meadows provide critical habitats for scallops

and other molluscs and may help protect these calcifying organisms from the adverse impacts of OA via

photosynthetic removal of CO2. Such potential protective effects of photosynthesizing plants need to be

directly examined by field observations and experimentation.

5.0.4.4 Calcifying and competing non-calcifying

marine phytoplankton

Increasing CO2 concentrations may stimulate the

growth rates of at least some marine phytoplankton.

Furthermore, rates of nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria, which regulate inputs of available fixed nitrogen in coastal and offshore waters throughout the

SER/GOM, has been shown to be stimulated by elevated CO2 (Hutchins et al., 2007; Fu et al., 2008).

By benefiting some species but not others, increased

CO2 is also likely to shift the species composition

of marine phytoplankton communities. Changes in

species composition of marine phototrophs may have

unforeseen effects on the overall structure and function of marine food webs. Studies have already

shown that the growth of the N2-fixing cyanobacterial

species, Trichodesmium, is stimulated by higher CO2

levels (Levitan et al., 2007; Hutchins et al., 2007). Trichodesmium is found in close association with Karenia brevis, and may facilitate blooms of this species in

the Gulf of Mexico. Karenia is a toxic alga that causes

red tides along the west Florida shelf and the coast of

Texas (Lenes et al., 2008).

5.0.4.5 Coastal and oceanic finfish

Many species of ecologically and commercially important fish spawn in offshore waters of the outer

continental shelf and coastal ocean with larvae dispersed through ocean currents. The pH and pCO2

regiment of this environment is relatively stable in

comparison to coastal estuaries. This lack of wide

variations in pH and pCO2 may confer that early

life stages of these species could lack an innate

ability to cope with OA. The fossil record shows

that modern bony fish, Osteichthyes, diversified in

the late Cretaceous and early Cenozoic at atmospheric CO2 levels below 1000 ppm and some Families (sea basses, croakers, and drums), as late as the

Miocene/Pliocene, transition at CO2 levels of 300–

400 ppm. NOAA ship surveys (SEAMAP) using plankton nets continue to collect, study, and archive larval

fish and eggs from the GOM at the Southeast Fisheries

Science Center. These early life stages are those first

expected to indicate reproductive impairment from
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 81

OA. In addition, additional laboratory studies of egg

fertilization and larval survival at reduced pH will be

a crucial part of determining the level of susceptibility of coastal and oceanic fin-fish resources and an

assessment of when changes to fisheries and ecosystems might occur.

5.1 Developing an Ocean

Acidification Monitoring

Network (Theme 1)

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) has been conducting measurements of

sea surface CO2 throughout the SER/GOM for more

than a decade to evaluate oceanic uptake and storage of CO2. The measurements of surface CO2 are

routinely conducted using both NOAA research vessels and volunteer observing ships (VOS) and have

provided the basis for developing satellite-based algorithms now being regularly applied to map the distribution and variability of aragonite saturation states

across much of the SER/GOM region. Synoptic estimates of sea surface carbonate chemistry are distributed monthly through NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch

(CRW) and efforts have begun to extend this throughout the full SER/GOM region and to better constrain

the model in more dynamic regions such as in the

northern Gulf of Mexico.

The NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program has

also begun advancing the development of an Atlantic Ocean Acidification test-bed in La Parguera, PR.

The project is a joint effort between NOAA AOML

and PMEL, the University of Miami/RSMAS (Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science) and

the University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez. The testbed serves as a nexus of federal agency and academic monitoring and research activities related to

OA. Since January 2009, sustained monitoring of nearreef pCO2(aq) has been conducted using a Moored

Autonomous pCO2(aq) (MAPCO2) measuring system

developed by NOAA PMEL. The mooring observations are supplemented by weekly carbonate chemistry surveys across the Cayo Enrique forereef and rely

on the nearby ICON/CREWS station to provide meteorological and oceanographic observations. PMEL

currently has two other MAPCO2 buoys deployed in

the SER/GOM, including one in the northern Gulf of

Mexico off the coast near Biloxi, Mississippi (30.0◦N,

88.6◦W) and one at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary off Savannah, Georgia, in the South Atlantic

Bight on NDBC buoy 41008 (31◦N, 081◦W).

5.1.1 Oceanographic monitoring

Task 5.1.1: Establish requisite analytical capability for conducting high-quality carbonate chemistry measurements and training at AOML.

A critical need to achieving the research requirements

detailed below is to assure quality standardized measurements of the seawater CO2-system and associated chemistry. To achieve such measurements, it

will be necessary to establish a centralized shared facility within the SER/GOM that will serve as a companion facility to NOAA PMEL and that is equipped

and staffed to provide quality assured measurements

of total alkalinity (TA), coulometric total dissolved

inorganic carbon (DIC), and spectrophotometric pH

according to the Guide to Best Practices for Ocean

CO2 Measurements (Dickson et al., 2007). The facility would also provide for regular SER/GOM regional training on best sampling and storage practices

for carbonate chemistry and would coordinate closely

with NOAA PMEL as described in the enabling activities in Chapter 1.

Task 5.1.2: Establish SER/GOM ocean acidification coastal/oceanic mooring network.

Moorings along the continental shelf and within

the open-ocean will be refurbished and augmented

with additional sensors to provide comprehensive

biogeochemical data with high temporal resolution

necessary for evaluating changes in ocean chemistry

related to OA (Figure 5.2). This effort will leverage

existing CO2 sensors and infrastructure designed to

measure air-sea CO2 fluxes, which are at or past their

project completion dates. The OA program, along

with extramural partners, will utilize existing moorings and provide for annual refurbishments, sensor

augmentation, telemetry, data quality assurance, and

data product delivery. Seasonal discrete samples will

be taken at the sites to provide for validation and supplemental measurements (e.g., total alkalinity [TA],

total dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC], nutrients, and

calcium). The moorings are to be strategically located to provide optimal scientific value toward advancing NOAA’s understanding of OA as it relates to

resource management and will leverage other federal

and academic research activities substantially (see Tables 1.2 and 1.3, and Figure 1.4 of the National Chapter). In FY2010, this refurbishment will happen for
82 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Figure 5.1: Aragonite saturation state within oceanic surface waters of the Greater Caribbean Region (top) and regional distribution for March 2010 (bottom) based on Gledhill et al. (2008) and available from NOAA Coral Reef Watch.

both the Gray’s Reef and Mississippi Bight fixed mooring buoys.

Priority moorings within the SER/GOM that are targeted for upgrade and incorporation into the OA network include those in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off

the coast near Biloxi, Mississippi (30◦N, 89◦W) and in

the South Atlantic Bight off of Georgia (31◦N, 81◦W).

The northern Gulf of Mexico mooring will provide information on the interactions between hypoxia and

OA near the Mississippi River Plume in an ecosystem

containing diverse marine resources. The mooring

in the South Atlantic Bight will reveal the interaction

between open-ocean, shelf waters, and river waters

with low alkalinity from the southeastern U.S. The OA

buoy-based monitoring system will be expanded as

outlined in Chapter 1.

Task 5.1.3: Conduct SER/GOM ocean acidification hydrographic/geochemical ship surveys.

To assess spatial dynamics in OA and evaluate potential interactive effects with coastal processes, we

will leverage our Ship of Opportunity Program (SOOP)

infrastructure (Figure 5.2). Underway observatories

will be enhanced by the collection and analysis of discrete DIC and TA samples. Oxygen sensors will also

be deployed and are necessary for improved under-
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 83

Figure 5.2: A broad range of experiments, process studies,

and monitoring activities are required to assess the impact

of ocean acidification on marine resources of the southeast,

Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico ocean and coastal waters.

Some of the Theme 1 (Section 5.1) activities detailed in the

research plan are depicted here: coral reef OA monitoring

sites (yellow), coastal/oceanic OA moorings (red), hydrographic/geochemical ship surveys (black lines).

standing of biological response to the interaction of

OA and low oxygen conditions and for development

of proxy algorithms for inorganic carbon parameters.

To adequately sample the variability along the Gulf

and East coasts, AOML will install automated systems on the NOAA fisheries ships Gordon Gunter and

Bigelow, and NOAA research ship Nancy Foster. AOML

will also augment the SOOP pCO2 surface water measurements sponsored by the NOAA Climate Observation Division on open-ocean vessels with oxygen sensors. Outfitting these NOAA vessels with underway

pCO2 systems will enhance their on-going ecosystem

and fisheries research and assessments activities. The

ships also provide a convenient means to obtain validation samples. As part of the advanced technology

requirements, discrete manual sampling will be augmented by ship-based auto-samplers to automatically

obtain sample sets.

Evaluating the susceptibility of deep sea coral communities (e.g., mapping of the aragonite saturation

horizon) and tracking the seasonal shoaling of low

pH waters will demand full 3D mapping of carbonate

chemistry. While the SOOP effort will provide a comprehensive surface mapping, dedicated NOAA shiptime will be required to obtain the requisite 3D subsurface measurements. Such cruises will require 30

days at sea every two years on a class I or II vessel with

a full complement of biological and chemical measurements. In addition, two annual cruises of 10–14

days duration (e.g., NOAA ship Nancy Foster or equivalent charter) are required for specific process studies, such as estimations of riverine influences on OA,

validation cruises of saturation state algorithms, reef

system-wide calcification rates, and assessing the biooptical signature of key processes affected by OA.

Task 5.1.4: Regional carbonate chemistry synoptic mapping.

NOAA AOML is advancing the development of regionally synoptic maps of surface carbonate chemistry in near real time. A quasi-operational product

is currently distributed by NOAA CRW. The current

product delivers a monthly × 0.25 degree synthesis

of satellite and modeled environmental datasets to

provide a synoptic estimate of the distribution of sea

surface carbonate chemistry throughout the Greater

Caribbean Region (GCR) (Gledhill et al., 2008). The

satellite-based algorithms that drive this experimental model are regionally specific to the GCR and

efforts are needed to synthesize existing and proposed geochemical survey data to extend the algorithm throughout the full SER/GOM.

5.1.2 Ecosystem coastal monitoring

Task 5.1.5: Establish the SER/GOM portion of

a coral reef ocean acidification monitoring program.

The NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP)

has made preliminary investment toward establishing a Coral Reef OA Monitoring Network. The Atlantic

elements of this network would be distributed at selected reef systems throughout the SER/GOM (Figure

5.2). Each node within the network will constitute a

suite of near continuous autonomous (where feasible) measurements of key chemical, physical, and biological parameters at regular intervals. The current

Atlantic OA Test-bed in La Parguera, PR and the observatories at Kilo Nalu, Hawaii (see Chapter 4), serve

as important precursors. While similar technologies

will be adopted for observing systems in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, the greater access of many of

the reef systems within the Atlantic will allow for a

more comprehensive suite of observations in most

cases. For example, observations of near-reef seawater pCO2 have been sustained for more than 1 year at

the Atlantic OA Test-bed in Puerto Rico. While similar

achievements have been made at Kilo Nalu, Hawaii,
84 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

many of the remote systems within the Pacific are

precluded from similar sustained observations given

the logistical requirements of servicing such systems

at sufficient frequency given the existing technologies.

5.1.2.1 Autonomous measurements

The primary objective of the moored autonomous

OA observatories is to provide near continuous monitoring of a suite of chemical, physical, hydrodynamic, and meteorological measurements that allow monitoring of community scale metabolic performance (net calcification, photosynthesis, respiration). The approach envisioned is based upon a Eulerian flow respirometry method as adopted for coral

reefs (Gattuso et al., 1993; 1995; 1999). It requires autonomous monitoring of carbonate chemistry parameters (e.g., enhanced MAPCO2) along with oxygen,

nutrients, and other ancillary data both upstream and

downstream of selected reef environments exhibiting unidirectional flow. Together with information on

water mass transit time, it is possible to track reef

metabolic performance and derive robust estimates

of reef growth contemporaneously with offshore estimates of changing ocean chemistry. The moorings provide for an enhanced characterization of the

short-term variability in carbonate chemistry within

coral reef environments. This information, in conjunction with data from the physiological research efforts, is needed to assign critical geochemical thresholds for OA impacts on reef ecosystems.

5.1.2.2 Biological and biophysical indicators

A suite of biological and biophysical indicators monitored at regular intervals could provide important information with regard to changing coral communities

in response to multiple and synergistic threats acting

on coral reefs. This could include:

• Evaluation of benthic/cryptic biodiversity;

• Remote sensing images (satellite, aerial) that indicate the extent of live versus dead cover, structural features, coral reef zonation;

• Process studies of community metabolic performance;

• Species-specific calcification and/or metabolism

monitoring and experimental field studies examining key organisms such as corals and macroalgae; and

• Ecological monitoring to include benthic community assessment, demographic processes (e.g.,

recruitment, growth, mortality) for key species,

and rugosity.

5.1.2.3 Site selection

Preliminary year efforts beginning in FY2011 will

work to evaluate selected candidate sites across the

SER/GOM as potential nodes in the Coral Reef Ocean

Acidification Monitoring Network prior to committing

long-term infrastructure (Table 5.1). Selection of candidate sites will be specifically informed by the CRCP

National Goals and Objectives and the CRCP State

and Jurisdictional Priorities Documents. Sites identified as a high monitoring priority to the CRCP will

then be further evaluated based on the criteria listed

in unranked order in Table 5.2.

Several of these candidate sites (e.g., Gray’s Reef,

Florida Keys, and the Flower Garden Banks) could include marine protected areas within the National Marine Sanctuary System (http://sanctuaries.noaa.

gov/) and could serve as climate change sentinel

sites. As protected areas, National Marine Sanctuaries

(NMS) staff are interested in developing OA monitoring protocols to implement across these sanctuaries.

North America’s only living coral barrier reef lies

about six miles seaward of the Florida Keys (a 220-

mile long string of islands extending south and west

of the Florida mainland). The Keys are located on

the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, beginning

just south of Key Biscayne and ending 70 miles west

of Key West. The Florida Keys NMS consists of 900

square nautical miles of coastal and offshore waters

surrounding the Florida Keys, and extending westward to encompass the Dry Tortugas islands, which

are managed by the Dry Tortugas National Park. They

are part of a fragile interdependent ecosystem that

includes mangroves, hard-bottom communities, and

seagrasses that grow both on the ocean and bay side

of the Florida Keys. Six C-MAN stations (SEAKEYS) are

located within the Sanctuary, and there are long-term,

comprehensive monitoring projects for water quality, seagrasses, coral reefs, and fishery resources that

can serve as baselines (http://sanctuaries.noaa.

gov/science/conservation/fk_report.html).

Flower Garden Banks NMS is located 70 to

115 miles off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.

These underwater communities rise from the depths

of the Gulf of Mexico atop underwater mountains called salt domes. NOAA recently completed a biogeographic survey of this sanctuary

characterizing the benthic and fish resources (Caldow et al., 2009) (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 85

Table 5.1: Candidate reef sites to serve as nodes within a Coral Reef Ocean Acidification Network within the SER/GOM (unranked).

Lat. Lon. Site Name Reef Type Reef Location Proposed Observations

17 –67 Cayo Enrique

Forereef

Mid-shelf reef USA/Puerto Rico—Caribbean Autonomous measurements;

Biophysical indicators

32 –80 Molasses Reef Bank/shelf reef Florida Keys National Marine

Sanctuary

Autonomous measurements;

Biophysical indicators

25 –81 Dry Tortugas Back and patch reef Dry Tortugas National Park Autonomous measurements

25 65 Buck Island National

Monument

Bank and patch reef St. Croix, USVI Autonomous chemical/hydrologic;

Regular biophysical surveys

18 –94 Stetson Bank Bank reef Flower Garden Banks National

Marine Sanctuary

Biophysical indicators

31 –81 Gray’s Reef Hard-bottom

community

Grey’s Reef National Marine

Sanctuary

Autonomous chemical/hydrologic;

Regular biophysical surveys

Table 5.2: Criteria for coral reef OA monitoring site evaluations.

1. Leveraging infrastructure (e.g., ICON/CREWS, Sea

Keys) that provides important ancillary oceanographic and meteorological data

2. Potential for strong metabolic signal (e.g., moderate to high coral cover)

3. Well-defined hydrodynamics (e.g., unidirectional

flow, existing hydrodynamic models)

4. Historical data (carbonate chemistry time series,

previous calcification studies, prior biological

community surveys)

5. Reef-dominated carbonate chemistry (minimal

convoluting factors)

6. Other federal, international, and academic partners

7. Robust estimates of offshore carbonate chemistry

(endmember)

8. Local logistical support (nearby labs, sanctuaries,

etc.)

9. Perceived vulnerability to OA

10. Economic and cultural significance

products/biogeography/fgb/report.html). This

survey will provide a good baseline for monitoring potential OA impacts

Gray’s Reef NMS is one of the largest nearshore

live-bottom reefs in the southeastern United States.

The sanctuary is located 17.5 nautical miles off Sapelo

Island, GA. Gray’s Reef is not a coral reef such as

those found in the tropics. Instead it is a consolidation of marine and terrestrial sediments (sand, shell,

and mud) which was laid down as loose aggregate between two and six million years ago. Gray’s Reef is

a submerged hard bottom (limestone) area that, as

compared to surrounding areas, contains extensive

but discontinuous rock outcropping of moderate (6 to

10 feet) height with sandy, flat-bottomed troughs between. A MAPCO2 surface water monitoring buoy is

currently located in the Gray’s Reef.

Task 5.1.6: Establish a seagrass OA monitoring

program.

A network of seagrass monitoring sites would serve

as an important extension to the Coral Reef OA Monitoring Network. Such a network would provide for a

more comprehensive characterization of OA impacts

within tropical benthic systems. Specific observations

would include species-specific distributions of seagrasses and associated epiphytic and benthic algae in

seagrass meadows along with rates of photosynthesis and calcification in epiphytic and benthic algae.

The monitoring network would document changes in

the distribution, density, and productivity of seagrass

meadows to determine the role of seagrasses in mitigating OA effects on biogenic reef structures. The information would provide for the development of forecast scenarios designed to inform regional management response.

Task 5.1.7: Establish an estuarine OA monitoring

program.

Estuaries are regions of high biological productivity. They also experience variable inputs of river water and ground water owing to variations in rainfall

and often exhibit high rates of exchange between bottom sediments and biota, and overlying water. Hence,

they experience much variability in carbonate chemistry and carbonate mineral solubility on a number of

spatial and temporal scales. There is a great need to

document this variability if we are to develop capabilities to forecast impacts of OA on estuarine ecosystems and living marine resources in the SER/GOM.
86 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

A research estuarine monitoring program for OA in

selected SER/GOM estuaries will address the issue

of temporal variability in CO2, pH, and carbonate

mineral solubility on timescales of hours, days, seasons, and years. We plan to continuously measure

pH, pCO2, temperature, and salinity, which will allow

us to evaluate the entire CO2 acid-base system and

the solubility of carbonate minerals from equilibrium

calculations. These measurements will use similar

instrumentation and methodology as used to monitor the CO2 system and carbonate mineral solubility

in the coral reef monitoring network outlined above.

DIC or TA will also be monitored when in situ automated methods become available for these parameters (see Chapter 1). In addition, several additional

chemical and biological parameters will be measured

that can be used to evaluate the impact of biota on

CO2 concentrations and related carbonate ion levels.

These parameters include concentrations of nutrients

(ammonium and nitrate+nitrite), chlorophyll fluorescence, light attenuation, and water depth. The necessary sensors and in situ measuring devices (e.g., nutrients) are all currently commercially available, with the

exception of those for alkalinity and total CO2, which

are currently under development. In situ chlorophyll

fluorescence will be calibrated by fluorescence measurements on discrete samples collected at different

times of day and in different seasons.

The monitoring system will be initially deployed

in the Newport River Estuary adjacent to NOAA’s

Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research

(CCFHR) in Beaufort, NC. This site is also adjacent

to the Rachel Carson Estuarine Reserve, which is

part of NOAA’s NERRS and will serve as a sentinel

site for climate change monitoring. Once the initial monitoring site is operational, one or two additional moored monitoring systems will be deployed

in Pamlico Sound roughly an hour’s drive from the

CCFHR facility. The Pamlico/Albemarle Sound system

is the largest estuarine system in the SER/GOM and is

the largest lagoonal estuarine system in the U.S. It is

one of the most productive lagoonal estuaries in the

world and supports important shrimp, crab, scallops,

oysters, and flounder fisheries (Boynton et al., 1982).

It also provides an important nursery for numerous

species of commercial and recreational finfish. Subsequent comparative monitoring sites in tropical and

subtropical estuaries (e.g., Biscayne Bay or Florida

Bay FL, GOM, Jobos Bay, PR NERR) would follow. Existing ecosystem monitoring activities in these areas

would be leveraged.

Organisms of Near-Term Priority

Calcifying phytoplankton

Seagrass

Reef building Corals

Eastern oyster

Brown, White and Pink shrimp

5.2 Organism Response to Ocean

Acidification (Theme 2)

The intended outcome of experiments on single

species in the SER/GOM described below is to understand the impact of OA on the broader ecosystem. These necessary species-specific exposure experiments will allow the analysis of SER/GOM ecosystem vulnerability.

Task 5.2.1: Conduct species-specific OA exposure

experiments.

There is a need to undertake controlled exposure

experiments in the laboratory and, when possible,

in the field to quantify adverse OA impacts on individual species or biological communities. Combined

impacts of elevated CO2/low pH and other associated factors such as elevated temperature (O’Donnell

et al., 2009; Pörtner, 2008), changing salinity, or hypoxia also need to be quantified for relevant species

as warming and rainfall changes are likely to co-occur

with OA. The manipulative experiments to be conducted as part of the SER/GOM implementation strategy will adopt the key recommendations and standard/guidelines outlined above.

Organism response parameters will include survival, growth, reproduction, development, and calcification rates where appropriate. Genomics approaches should also be considered in order to gain

insight into the mechanisms that confer resilience as
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 87

organisms adapt to OA, and to predict the presence

or absence of that capacity in critical species. Global

gene expression profiling using microarrays has been

successfully used to explore the effects of OA on the

physiology and distribution of calcifying marine organisms (e.g., Hoffman et al., 2008; Place et al., 2008)

and is rapidly becoming an established tool in marine ecology (Dupont et al., 2007). NOAA is also

well positioned to apply genomics approaches to addressing the effect of OA on organisms critical to the

SER/GOM. The NOAA genomics facility at Center for

Human Health Risk (CHHR) has developed microarrays to a number of species including shrimp, oyster, fishes in the genus Fundulus, bottlenose dolphin,

and the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and maintains

the molecular and bioinformatic expertise to support exposure studies and develop additional speciesspecific tools needed to address OA.

5.2.1 Marine phytoplankton

Experiments will be performed for a number of

potentially sensitive calcifying species and competing non-calcifying phytoplankton species found in

coastal and offshore regions of the SER/GOM. Controlled laboratory experiments will be conducted to

investigate the effects of OA on the rates of photosynthesis, growth, and biogenic calcium carbonate precipitation in representative species of marine coccolithophores, which are responsible for most biological

precipitation of calcium carbonate in the ocean and

are important biological regulators of climate (Dymond and Lyle, 1985; Charlson et al., 1987). The effects on coccolithophores will be compared with effects of varying pH/CO2 on rates of photosynthesis

and growth of diatoms and other non-calcifying marine phytoplankton. The combined effect of increasing temperature will also be examined because OA is

expected to be accompanied by global warming. The

culture experiments will be run at CCFHR, which has

decades of knowledge and experience in controlled

laboratory experiments with marine phytoplankton,

including experiments examining effects of pH/CO2

variations (Sunda and Huntsman, 2003). The experiments should help us to determine the relative impact of OA on different phytoplankton species, which

should provide information on the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities, and associated changes in marine food webs.

Toxic algal species present in the SER/GOM region

are high-priority species for investigating responses to

OA. Experiments are currently underway at the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR) and Texas A&M to investigate the effects of increased temperature and CO2

on the Florida red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis. Key physiological parameters monitored include

growth, photosynthesis, and toxicity. In addition,

the genomic responses of the dinoflagellate to these

changes are assessed using a K. brevis specific DNA

microarray. The molecular mechanisms by which

phytoplankton accommodate these changes may provide some insight into how and why certain phytoplankton will be winners and others losers in the predicted OA scenario. Genomic approaches have successfully been used in K. brevis to characterize diurnal responses, stress responses, and responses to nutrients (Van Dolah et al., 2007; Lidie, 2007; Van Dolah

et al., 2010). Genomic tools are currently being generated at CCEHBR to conduct similar studies in the

coral reef associated dinoflagellate, Gambierdicus toxicus, responsible for ciguatera, the most prevalent

form of seafood poisoning worldwide. Toxic diatoms

in the genus Pseudo-nitzschia are also present in the

SER/GOM and have been associated with certain marine mammal mortalities. Research is currently underway at CCEHBR/CHHR to identify the distribution

and toxicity of the multiple Pseudo-nitzschia species

present in the region. Examination of the differential

responses of these species to OA may provide insight

into the future prevalence of domoic acid poisoning

in the SER/GOM region.

5.2.2 Bivalves

Laboratory experiments will also be conducted at

CCFHR to determine the response and sensitivity of

larval and juvenile stages of key molluscan species

to OA. Organism response parameters will include

survival rates, rates of growth and calcification, and

duration of metamorphic stages. Such studies are

needed to forecast the impacts of OA on estuarine bivalve populations and fisheries. Species to be examined will include the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) and the common quahog (Mercenaria mercenaria), both commercially and ecologically important species in the SER/GOM. This research will support (1) efforts to restore bivalve populations in the

SER/GOM, (2) the marine aquaculture industry, and

(3) coastal habitat restoration. CCFHR offers a unique

combination of staff expertise and laboratory facilities

in shellfish cultivation and estuarine ecology, proximity to estuarine shellfish resources, an ongoing collaboration with aquaculture facilities, and strong interactions with state and federal habitat restoration efforts.
88 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

5.2.3 Crustaceans

Similar experiments are also planned in the Southeast Fisheries Science Center to examine effect of OA

on economically and ecologically important species

of crustaceans in the SER/GOM, particularly shrimp,

which represent one of the largest (if not the largest)

commercial fishery in the SER/GOM in terms of dollars. Experiments will focus on the three commercially most important species, brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus), white shrimp (Penaeus setiferus),

and pink shrimp (Penaeus duorarum) which, in addition to commercial importance, are widely utilized as

ecosystem indicators in the South Florida Ecosystem

Restoration program. As with molluscs, experiments

will focus on larval and juvenile life stages and will

examine effects on survival, growth, and duration of

metamorphic stages. Data from the OA experiments

with molluscs and shrimp will be combined with existing data and forecasts of anthropogenic changes in

CO2/pH to help assess the impact of current and future OA on bivalve mollusc and shrimp populations,

and associated adverse impacts to shellfish fisheries.

5.2.4 Other organisms

Exposure experiments should be conducted for a host

of the region’s other key ecological and economically

important species. It is suggested that NOAA extramural research funds be directed for research on

these species. Early life phases and a range of physiological (e.g., respiration, photosynthesis, growth) and

ecological (e.g., reproduction, survivorship) and possibly functional (e.g., gene expression to examine potential mechanisms of resilience within species) responses should be included as appropriate for particular organisms in these experimental assessments

of OA risk. Below is a beginning list of other key

SER/GOM organism groups that require targeted experimental assessment:

• Reef-building corals (including deep-sea Oculina

varicosa, Lophelia pertusa, as well as species of

shallow genera such as Acropora, Montastraea,

and Diploria)

• Calcifying reef macroalgae (e.g., Halimeda spp.

and crustose coralline algae)

• Non-calcifying reef plants (e.g., seagrasses) and

macroalgae (e.g., Dictyota, Lobophora, Laurencia)

• Other calcifying reef organisms (e.g., Diadema,

crustaceans)

• Calcifying targeted fisheries (e.g., conch, blue

crab, spiny lobsters)

• Fin fishes (including reproductive functions and

otolith development)

• Specific prey organisms important to fishery and

protected-resource species

• Heterotrophic organisms

• Suspension feeders

• Boring sponges

Task 5.2.2: Conduct lab and/or field experiments

to determine OA impacts on key species interactions (e.g., competition, predation, facilitation).

As species-specific responses to OA are further delineated by activities under Task 5.2.1 above, relevant

and specific hypotheses can be formulated relative

to how these species’ specific responses will propagate through food webs and ecosystems. For example, competition between calcareous reef corals and

benthic algae is believed to be an important structuring factor in benthic reef communities and OA could

shift the balance between these communities. Also,

calcareous prey species may prove more vulnerable to

predation if their shells/tests are rendered less robust

by OA (McDonald et al., 2009). The use of large mesocosm facilities may be needed to test species interactions similar to those planned for the University of

Washington at Friday Harbor for experiments on the

west coast (see Chapter 3).

Center for Coastal Environmental Health and

Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR) laboratory in

Charleston, South Carolina, maintains a modern

1800 ft2 coral research facility, the Coral Culture and

Collaborative Research Facility (CCCRF), to support

studies with live coral colonies and to provide laboratory space and equipment for conducting related

challenge experiments on the effects of a variety of

environmental stressors, including OA. The facility

provides a resource for laboratory investigations

that can enhance our understanding of the potential

effects of natural and human stressors on corals

and coral-reef communities. While the initial focus

of work within CCCRF has been on shallow-water

tropical/sub-tropical species, recent efforts have been

devoted to adding a cold-water culture and testing

capability. Upcoming plans include conducting experiments to test the response of deep-sea corals (e.g,

Lophelia pertusa and others) to low (<1) carbonate

saturation states and low pH.

In addition, the newly completed Marine Environmental Research Laboratory (MERL) of the University
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 89

of Southern Mississippi’s Gulf Coast Research Laboratory, is strategically situated on the northern shore

of Mississippi sound. This 8,000-sq-ft research facility

houses two fully equipped laboratories with seawater

delivery systems and experimental mesocosms suitable for studies on critical early life stages of shrimp,

shellfish, and finfish.

Task 5.2.3: Conduct coral sclerochronology for

retrospective OA assessment to detect the coral

calcification historical response.

Potential impacts of ocean acidification on coral

reef systems include decreases in coral calcification, growth rates, structural integrity of reef-building

corals, and thus the constructional mechanism of

coral reefs. Coral sclerochronology provides the only

mechanism to retrospectively determine coral calcification over the past several hundred years, including pre-industrial conditions. The presence of annual density bands in coral skeletons provide historical records of linear extension rates, skeletal density, and calcification rates over the often long lifespan of many reef-building corals. Several coral genera (Montastraea, Siderastrea, and Diploria, among

others) possess annual density band records which

will enable identification of the species response to

OA. The presence of reef-building corals throughout

the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic allows assessment of the coral calcification response to OA over

a wide latitudinal range spanning pre-industrial to

present-day conditions. It is necessary to assess coral

growth and calcification records across a wide latitudinal range in order to identify specific regions of increased susceptibility to the potentially compounding

impact of OA, climate change, and land-based pollution. Coral growth records, in conjunction with the

in situ and ship-based measurements of physical and

chemical variables, provide a means of teasing apart

the relative importance of impacts from OA, thermal

stress, and land-based pollution. Understanding the

limiting environmental controls on coral calcification

is necessary to identify manageable parameters at local and regional scales in order to mitigate the effects

of expected increases in OA.

Additionally, the boron isotopic composition of the

skeleton presents a paleo-proxy of seawater pH which

provides a metric for quantifying past OA. Research

is currently underway at the Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed in La Parguera, PR, to measure

past coral growth and calcification along with reconstructed paleo-records of pH using the boron isotope

proxy prior to and following the industrial revolution.

Understanding the historical baseline values and the

relationship between coral calcification rates and recent changes in seawater carbonate chemistry is a

necessary component for assessing current and future

susceptibility to OA.

5.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem

Models (Theme 3)

The monitoring and manipulative experiments advanced in Themes 1 and 2 are intended to serve as

an underlying architecture and validation toward the

development of biogeochemical models. These models, if coupled with ecological and economic models, will provide the basis for evaluating the socioeconomic implications of continued OA under a range of

scenarios.

The Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional

Association (SECOORA) not only facilitates integrating regional monitoring efforts but also has an inventory of oceanographic models under development

(http://seacoos.org/). Many of the models available by SECOORA are related to physical parameters (sea surface height, salinity, currents, and winds);

these models will be evaluated for potential expansion to include OA-relevant parameters. Additional

models that could be leveraged include those available from the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing

Regional Association.

Task 5.3.1: Develop regional biogeochemical

forecast models coupled to global carbon cycle

models to predict local changes in carbon chemistry at multiple temporal scales.

Over the last decade, coarse-scale, coupled

climate/carbon-cycle models have been modified

to determine the present-day and future changes

of ocean carbon chemistry and OA for the next

two centuries (Kleypas et al., 1999; Caldeira and

Wickett, 2003; Orr et al., 2005; Caldeira and Wickett,

2005; Cao and Caldeira, 2008; Feely et al., 2009).

These models have provided information on the

geographical distributions of open-ocean carbon

chemistry under different atmospheric CO2 stabilization scenarios and validated with the WOCE and

CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography data sets. However,

these models are poorly constrained for the marginal

basins, including the Greater Caribbean and Gulf of

Mexico. Furthermore, while the rate of OA for the

open ocean may be reasonably well constrained, it is
90 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

less so for the oceanic margins. Within these systems,

global-scale OA is overlaid onto variability in Ω as a

result of highly complex biogeochemical dynamics

and riverine input (e.g., Salisbury et al., 2008). There

is a requirement to nest a high-resolution coupled

climate/carbon model within a global model, such as

the GFDL MOM4 model. We will develop a SER/GOM

model (or collection of models) that will be part of

a nested set of models of OA in U.S. coastal waters

and to verify the model outputs with observational

data collected from shipboard surveys and moorings.

These efforts would be advanced as an extension

to the modeling efforts being led by PMEL with

collaboration with GFDL and AOML as identified

within the West Coast Regional Plan.

Task 5.3.2: Develop regional biogeochemical

hindcast models to evaluate historical changes in

carbonate chemistry within the SER/GOM.

A core requirement toward providing context to

the current and projected OA trajectories is evaluating historical changes. It is necessary to mine

the wealth of historical data archives (e.g., World

Ocean Database at NODC) of biological, chemical,

and physical oceanographic measurements to deduce

the historical development of OA conditions within

the SER/GOM. The PMEL OA team has developed

new robust regional algorithms for estimating the

seasonal extent of corrosive waters along the West

Coast of North America using archived biogeochemical and hydrographic data sets that lack carbon measurements (Juranek et al., 2009). This approach will

be extended and applied along the oceanic margins

of the SER/GOM, where archival hydrographic and

chemical datasets permit the derivation of such algorithms. The details of this approach are outlined

within the West Coast regional plan. This approach,

when combined with shipboard observations, mooring and glider data could be utilized to verify the

nested coupled climate models of OA and help to determine potential hotspots and vulnerability of sensitive marine ecosystems in U.S. coastal waters.

Task 5.3.3: Develop regional ecoforecast models.

Full-scale regional ecosystem models need to be

developed for the SER/GOM. Where in-house capabilities do not support the development of such models, it will be necessary to fund extramural modeling efforts. The wide range of ecosystems/habitats

(e.g., pelagic Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean coral reef,

South Atlantic continental shelf, and diverse lagoonal

and estuarine habitats from Florida Bay to Pamlico/Albemarle Sound) makes the task particularly

challenging. Constructing and utilizing such models

constitutes a long-term goal across many NOAA interests requiring effective coordination between the OA

program and other NOAA programs.

In addition to comprehensive ecosystem models,

more restricted modeling tools (e.g., Ecopath with

Ecosim) should also be implemented on shorter

timescales to yield important insights on potential

OA impacts to ecosystems and ecosystem services

by allowing propagation of single-species responses

(determined in experimental work described above)

through food webs. Many such models already exist for ecosystems within the SER/GOM (searchable

at ecopath.org). Existing Ecopath with Ecosim models should also be consulted to help identify particularly sensitive species that play key roles in regional

food webs and ecosystems, and thus high-priority

targets for experimental studies. Ongoing recruitment models being developed at NOAA entities at the

Stennis Space Center that integrate climate changeassociated physical variables, hydrography, and ecological process parameters will also help fulfill this

need for comprehensive ecosystem models, as well as

help represent the economically important northern

GOM region within the scope of the OA plan.

A multimillion dollar, multiyear modeling effort is

underway to characterize the northern Gulf of Mexico

waters and ecology over the LA/Tex continental shelf.

NOAA, MMS, and ONR all have made large investments in this region. The NOAA investment at Texas

A&M is focused on a coupled hydrodynamic and ecological model with the potential to forecast hypoxia

of the GOM Dead Zone using water discharge, nutrient concentration, and sediment loads to predict algal

blooms and algal remineralization. Integrated conceptual ecosystem models are also being developed

for South Florida coastal marine ecosystems as part

of the MARES (Marine and Estuarine Goal Setting for

South Florida) project (http://www.sofla-mares.

org/). We will seek to augment these models to incorporate an OA module that includes both carbonate

chemistry and biological response.

5.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

Limited research has been conducted on the potential consequences of OA on human communities.

Core objectives of human dimensions research are to

evaluate how changes in ecosystems caused by OA
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 91

will affect human communities, marine and coastal

resource-based industries, and the national economy. These effects could impact both social and economic systems through their influence on consumptive and non-consumptive industries (e.g., recreation,

tourism) and the existence value of various biological

resources.

Task 5.4.1: Forecast impacts to ecosystem services within the SER/GOM.

We will forecast the impacts of OA on ecosystem

services within the SER/GOM by developing a ecosystem services models linked to ecosystem forecasting

models (Task 5.5.3). Forecasts of ecosystem services

could be designed explicitly to inform national, regional, and local decision makers. For example, such

models could explore how ecosystem services change

over time with and without actions taken to alter

habitat susceptibility to OA (e.g., altering local hydrodynamic regime, changes in coastal runoff, reduce

point source stressors).

Task 5.4.2: Conduct necessary social impact and

vulnerability assessments to ascertain probable

social impacts of OA and identify possible mitigation strategies within the SER/GOM.

OA will not impact all human communities in the

same manner or to the same extent. For example, a

coastal community relying exclusively on tourism related to a coral reef ecosystem may be more culturally

and economically vulnerable than a community having a highly diversified economic base. In addition,

impacts to non-commercial species of cultural interest, such as those gathered for subsistence or cultural

practices, will need to be considered. For this reason,

social scientists will use data gathered from monitoring programs and forecasts of ecosystem and ecosystem services changes under OA to inform social impact and vulnerability assessments for human communities in the SER/GOM. These assessments will

identify those communities likely to suffer disproportionate effects of OA on vital ecosystem services.

Task 5.4.3: Develop mitigation and community

adaptation strategies.

Choices about adopting various CO2 emission scenarios need to be informed by the best available

science—science that includes the impacts of OA.

However, decision-makers will need to consider this

science within the broader context of how to confront other stressors to the marine system, how to

prepare communities for ecosystem changes, whether

to implement spatial or temporal fisheries changes,

etc. Such decisions demand consideration of ecological predictions, the value of ecosystem products and

services, and the socioeconomic costs versus benefits

of proposed actions.

Results from the prior two tasks—development of a

model to forecast changes in ecosystem services and

the analysis of which communities are most vulnerable to changes in ecosystem services—will be utilized

to develop strategies for (1) mitigating the impacts of

OA and (2) helping communities adapt to unavoidable change. While management options for dealing with OA may be limited in most cases, there may

be instances, particularly within the coastal zones,

where local management actions can promote the

resiliency of many ecosystems under continued OA.

The strategies we identify and develop could help resource managers, policymakers, and other decisionmakers make cost-effective, informed decisions. In

addition, the tools developed under this task will help

resource managers anticipate stakeholder and constituent interests so that human activities might be effectively governed in vulnerable ecosystems.

5.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

The primary strategy for data synthesis and product delivery within the SER/GOM is to adopt those

outlined within the National Plan chapter in which

existing data assembly and archive centers are engaged, including CLImate VARiability and predictability (CLIVAR/CO2) and Carbon Dioxide Information

Analysis Center (CDIAC). When the single national

OA information center is established as proposed in

Chapter 1, it will serve as a central communication

and coordination forum and directory for the data assembly centers. Data synthesis activities will include

standardizing and merging of regional datasets to

basin and global scale, synthesis of data across multiple platforms and model outputs, and integrated synthesis reports. The synthesis process should include:

science and technical workshops, product development workshops; and international synthesis meetings.
92 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

5.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Communicating the processes governing OA and its

impacts is critical to educating and engaging the public on this topic and to the policy debate on regulation of carbon dioxide emissions. As research is completed and new discoveries are made, advances must

be clearly communicated to both decision makers

and the public at large. This communication should

be addressed through both formal and informal education activities as well as making use of multi-media

outlets as much as possible.

Task 5.6.1: Create and distribute media that

clearly and concisely describe the chemistry of

OA as well as the known and hypothesized impacts.

To better inform the public on this critical issue,

we need targeted messages in engaging forms of media (e.g., feature documentary, animated film, graphic

novel), that accurately describe the earth’s and ocean’s

carbon cycles and the impact of anthropogenic CO2

emissions on those cycles. Specifically, these media projects need to tell general audiences how increasing atmospheric CO2 is acidifying the ocean and

thereby altering its chemistry and how these chemical changes are impacting the ocean’s biology. These

media projects should be made via collaboration between NOAA Communications and established media developers. Specific examples that relate to research and impacts in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf

of Mexico should also be highlighted. Any efforts for

similar programs underway in other NOAA programs

(such as the CRSP) should be joined in this effort or

created in such a way that they build upon one another in a related series.

Task 5.6.2: Create an interactive website focused

on OA in the SER/GOM.

With the majority of the general population turning to internet search engines for quick research on

almost any topic, it is essential that NOAA have a

comprehensive web-based presence representing this

topic. The website would offer resources for both the

general population and the research community. For

the research community, information on current research priorities and data access should be available

as well as related meetings and publications. Podcasts, short videos, and visualizations explaining OA

will allow for quick and easy access to overviews that

meet the expectations of today’s younger generations.

Innovative multimedia tools such as NOAA’s Second

Life should also include sections about OA and specially designed examples of current research. An explanation of common myths and facts about the history of carbon dioxide levels on Earth and known impacts to ecosystems would facilitate greater understanding of the topic.

Task 5.6.3: Develop regular summary literature

that provides a State of the Science of OA and

Known Impacts in the SER/GOM.

Create non-technical documents that use plain language, images, and graphics to explain the current

understanding, major accomplishments, and new endeavors related to OA in this region. These materials

should be widely distributed and available in offices

conducting OA research and at professional meetings.

Task 5.6.4: Install interactive displays at aquaria

in the southeastern United States.

Following a similar approach to the kiosks employed in the Sant Ocean Hall at the Smithsonian in

Washington D.C., a display that allows visitors to listen and view short videos on OA should be developed and installed at major aquaria in the southeast

U.S. With a tailored focus on the regional-specific impacts, visitors will be able to explore exactly how various scenarios under OA will impact their communities and local environments.

Task 5.6.5: Create education modules and curricula that can be used by teachers to help describe

OA and its impacts to students.

Modules describing new and innovative topics that

have been vetted and meet state and national standards for science and math are much more likely to

be utilized by teachers. Developing such modules

and curricula in concert with leading experts in OA

will ensure that students will begin learning about OA

much earlier in their educational career. This will

also provide opportunities for students to learn about

what NOAA and its university partners are doing to research this phenomenon and its impacts.
Chapter 5. Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 93

5.7 Collaborators

Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Region

Collaborators

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Coral Research Conservation Program

Southeast Fisheries Science Center

Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research

Center for Coastal Environmental Health and

Biomolecular Research

Center for Human Health Risk (Hollings Marine

Laboratory)

Regional OOS (SECOORA, GCOOS, CarlCOOS)

Florida Sea Grant

Georgia Sea Grant

South Carolina Sea Grant

North Carolina Sea Grant

Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium

Louisiana Sea Grant

Puerto Rico Sea Grant

Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary

National Estuarine Research Reserves

Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies

Cooperative Institute for Ocean Exploration, Research,

and Technology

Northern Gulf Institute

6. Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research

Plan

Beth Phelan, Jon Hare, Ellen Mecray, Gary

Wikfors, Shannon Meseck, Christopher

Chambers, Daniel Wieczorek, Vincent Guida,

Ronald Goldberg, Dean Perry, Michael Fogarty,

Paul Ticco, and Charles Stock

6.0 Ocean Acidification in the

Northeast Region

Decreases in pH and the saturation state (Ω) of

the surface oceans and subsurface waters are

larger at higher latitudes, due in large part

to the strong temperature dependence of the solubility of CO2 in seawater. It is expected that the saturation state of surface waters off the coast of New England will decline sooner than other areas of the Northeast, especially during the winter months. In addition, hypoxia is a growing threat in all estuaries in the

Northeast, particularly Narragansett Bay, Long Island

Sound, and Chesapeake Bay. A relationship exists between hypoxia (low oxygen) and ocean acidification

because respiration which causes hypoxia is also producing high levels of CO2, lowering the carbonate ion

levels. In all, OA has the potential to significantly affect living marine resources in the Northeast, as well

as alter the ecosystem’s structure, function, and productivity. Given the social and economic importance

of living marine resources on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf, the potential large-scale and long-term

impacts of OA must be evaluated.

We describe here a coordinated research plan with

the goal of providing the first assessment of the effects

of OA on living marine resources in the Northeast U.S.

continental shelf ecosystem. During the Marine Resources Monitoring Assessment and Prediction Program (MARMAP, 1977–1987), some pH and alkalinity measurements were made as part of primary productivity studies. Preliminary analyses of those data

show seasonal and spatial variability. These observations also demonstrate differences between surface

and near-bottom conditions, which are likely related

to the strong stratification that occurs seasonally in

different parts of the system. We intend to conduct

a monitoring program that will define and track the

status of OA in the shelf ecosystem. Since the effects

of acidification are not well studied, a large part of

this plan includes experimental research. These laboratory and field efforts will be directed at collecting specific information for the parameterization of

single-species and ecosystem models, which will then

be used to assess the effect of acidification on living

marine resources and overall ecosystem productivity.

6.1 Developing a Northeast Ocean

Acidification Monitoring

Network (Theme 1)

Task 6.1: Develop and conduct a monitoring program to assess the current state of ocean acidification and track its development in the northeast U.S. shelf ecosystem.

A baseline for OA on the Northeast U.S. shelf must

be determined along with potential changes in the

carbonate chemistry as part of the larger ecosystem

monitoring programs. A collection of long-term monitoring data can then be coupled with forecast models

to provide assessments of the effect of OA on marine

resources. The monitoring data will also be used to

direct field work resource species. Preliminary analysis of MARMAP data (1977–1987, Figure 6.1) shows

spatial variability in pH and total alkalinity, which indicates that measurements are needed over the entire

ecosystem to assess the potential effects of OA on resource species. Further, these observations need to

be made both at the surface and through the water

column, since few marine species inhabit the surface

95
96 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Northeast Region Description

The Northeast U.S. region (for the purposes of this report) extends from the Virginia/North Carolina border to the

western Scotian Shelf (see above) and spans a large latitudinal gradient from south to north. Structurally, this ecosystem

is complex, with temperature and climactic changes, winds, river runoff, estuarine exchanges, tides, and multiple

circulation regimes. The Northeast ecosystem has been divided into four regions: Mid-Atlantic Bight, Georges Bank,

Gulf of Maine, and the Scotian Shelf/Bay of Fundy, each with different properties and dynamics. The circulation

of the region is dominated by five large-scale processes: the Labrador Coastal Current inflow, estuarine and riverine

input, the Gulf Stream, wind and tidal forcing. This area is characterized by a temperate climate, and local water

temperatures have a large seasonal range from approximately 5–10◦C in the northern Gulf of Maine to near 20◦C along

the Mid-Atlantic coast. The range in climatic conditions and the variety in geomorphology among regions contribute to

a wide array of pelagic and benthic habitats, which contribute to the large productivity of the ecosystem. Approximately

30 marine mammal, 6 sea turtle, and 1,000 fish species occur in this ecosystem. Many of these fish species support

a large fishing industry, which in 2006 produced fish and shellfish landings worth over $1.2 billion. Other Northeast

economic activities include agriculture, natural resource extraction, a service industry dependent on large metropolitan

areas, recreation and tourism, and manufacturing and transportation of industrial goods.

and there is extensive stratification in different parts

of the water column and to provide a framework for

the studies of the effects of OA on primary productivity and systems at different times of year.

We propose using the dedicated Ecosystem Monitoring (EcoMon) surveys as the primary basis for water column monitoring of OA. A Seabird Electronics

911+ CTD system with bottle carousel and auxiliary

oxygen sensor will be deployed at stations along transect lines extending from the coast to the shelf break

(Figure 6.2). Surface, mid-depth, and bottom samples

will be collected and prepared at sea for onshore determination of pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC),

and total alkalinity (TA). We will also measure a suite

of other parameters at these stations to elucidate relationships between OA, nutrient availability, carbonate formation, and dissolved oxygen. Further, we

propose to install surface pCO2 instrumentation on

the two NOAA research vessels used by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) in fishery and

ecosystem surveys to acquire year-round measurements. This sampling design will be re-evaluated periodically after three years, based on temporal and

spatial variability and through a comparison with the

MARMAP era data.

In addition to shipboard sampling, we propose a

number of fixed mooring sites that will be outfitted

with OA sensors providing high-frequency measurements that will complement the survey-based measurements. Refer to Table 1.2 and 1.3 in Chapter 1
Chapter 6. Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 97

Longitude

Latitude

Winter (Surface)

 76oW 74oW 72oW 70oW 68oW 66oW

 36oN

 38o

N

 40o

N

 42o

N

 44o

N

 46o

N

 76oW 74oW 72oW 70oW 68oW 66oW

 36oN

 38o

N

 40o

N

 42o

N

 44o

N

 46o

N

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

Longitude

Latitude

Winter (Surface)

 76oW 74oW 72oW 70oW 68oW 66oW

 36oN

 38o

N

 40o

N

 42o

N

 44o

N

 46o

N

 76oW 74oW 72oW 70oW 68oW 66oW

 36oN

 38o

N

 40o

N

 42o

N

 44o

N

 46o

N

7.9

7.95

8

8.05

8.1

8.15

8.2

8.25

8.3

Figure 6.1: Winter climatology of surface layer pH (left) and total alkalinity (right) derived from MARMAP samples (1976–

1984).

Figure 6.2: Proposed sampling design for an ocean acidification monitoring program. Program includes fixed station

sampling during Ecosystem Monitoring cruises (blue) and

moorings with OA sensors (red).

for a list of locations. The sensors will be phased in

over a period of five years. As sensor technology advances, we would like to take advantage of the numerous moorings in the national Data Buoy Center to expand the spatial coverage of the system. Sensor technology is currently being developed, but will require

regional involvement and participation to accelerate

sensor development.

Marine protected areas in the northeast region, including nine National Estuarine Research Reserves

(NERRs [Wells, Maine; Great Bay, New Hampshire; Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts; Narragansett Bay,

Rhode Island; Hudson River, New York; Old Woman

Creek, Ohio; Chesapeake Bay, Maryland and Virginia; Delaware Bay, Delaware and New Jersey, and

Jacques Cousteau, New Jersey]) and two National Marine Sanctuaries (the Stellwagen Bank NMS in the

western Gulf of Maine and the Monitor NMS off Cape

Hatteras, North Carolina) are potential sentinel sites

for existing and new monitoring programs to detect

impacts from ocean acidification. Protected areas are

ideal for long-term research, water-quality monitoring, education, and coastal stewardship. Reserves and

sanctuaries provide sentinel sites that attract and support research collaborations and seek to understand

processes that affect ecosystems. Further, they work

with local communities and regional groups to address natural resource issues and improve our ability to intelligently manage, mitigate, and/or adapt to

changes in the environment due to OA. Sentinel sites

will provide opportunities for researchers to collabo-
98 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

rate and will support research devoted to understanding OA patterns and processes that affect the Northeast ecosystem and living marine resources.

The monitoring network will also coordinate with

other researchers measuring dissolved CO2 in the

ecosystem. The goal of this coordination is to develop

a merged dataset based on the various OA activities

in the ecosystem. Current cooperation will continue

with AOML researchers who are measuring pCO2

from vessels in the NEFSC Ship of Opportunity Program. The NEFSC, in collaboration with investigators

from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Old Dominion University (ODU),

have started to make preliminary dissolved inorganic

carbon and total alkalinity measurements as part of a

shelf-wide monitoring effort. There have been several

recent efforts to make surface pCO2 measurements in

the Gulf of Maine. The University of New Hampshire

(UNH) Coastal Ocean Observing Center’s Coastal Carbon Group has been working in the New Hampshire

coastal regions since 2004. Two Regional IOOS (Integrated Ocean Observing System) Regional Associations (NERACOOS and MaCOORA) are active in the

northeast ecosystem and have a broad range of observing platforms. Activities include satellite observations, buoys, glider transects, HF radar, and modeling.

MaCOORA through Rutgers University has been collaborating with the NEFSC within the New York Bight

on ECOS (Ecology of Coastal Ocean Seascapes), which

has been measuring spatial changes in environmental parameters related to changing distribution patterns of living marine resources. Therefore, the regional associations are complementary to the NEFSC

shipbased OA activities.

6.2 Organism Response to Ocean

Acidification (Theme 2)

A comprehensive overview of the biological components of the northeast U.S. shelf ecosystem provided

by NEFSC Energy Modeling and Analysis eXercise

(EMAX) identified functional groups and established

trophic relationships between them (Link et al., 2006).

The Northeast U.S. shelf ecosystem is highly interconnected through its trophic relationships, raising

the expectation that OA effects could be propagated

throughout it. To predict how ecosystems will respond to OA, it is important to first determine how individual species will respond under controlled experimental conditions. Results from these experiments

will provide information about direct effects and predictions about priority species, data to refine models

Organisms of Near-Term Focus

Primary producers

Scallops

Lobster (American above)

Atlantic surf clams

Hard and soft shell clams

Mussels

Oysters

Summer and Winter Flounder

Black Sea Bass

Shortnose Sturgeon

Deep-sea Coral

North Atlantic Right Whale

of the ocean carbon cycle and data for models such as

EMAX that could predict indirect effects of OA.

Given the diversity of fish and shellfish species, the

numerous protected and endangered taxa (e.g., the

North Atlantic Right whale and shortnose sturgeon)

and the importance of bottom-up forcing (e.g., lower

trophic levels), we will conduct research on a range of

taxa utilizing regional expertise and then focus future

research based on those results. In addition, NOAA’s

extramural research funds will be directed to fill the

gaps in NOAA expertise and facilitate partnerships

with academic institutions.

It will be important for NOAA researchers to work

closely with academic partners given the wealth of

expertise in the region. A research group at Woods

Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) is actively involved in working to understand the effects of OA on

marine ecosystems and resources. Doney et al. (2008)

document the state of knowledge regarding impacts

of acidification on marine species, and Cooley and

Doney (2009) provide a preliminary economic assessment of the effect of OA on commercial fisheries. A

second group at WHOI (Ries et al., 2009) is investigating the effect of acidification on calcification of

invertebrates and algae. They have found OA can

greatly affect initial shell formation in shellfish such
Chapter 6. Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 99

as bay scallops, which has potential major effects on

the shellfish industry in the northeast region. Similar

research at the State University of New York at Stony

Brook (SUNY) confirms these results (Talmage and

Gobler, 2009). At the University of Massachusetts at

Amherst (UMass Amherst), preliminary research investigations have started to examine the relationship

between OA and lobster shell disease.

Current priorities for NOAA research in the Northeast region on organism response to ocean acidification are: primary and secondary productivity, shellfish, finfish, deep-sea corals, and protected species.

6.2.1 Primary producers

Task 6.2.1: Conduct laboratory and targeted field

studies to quantify the impact of ocean acidification on primary producers.

A critical concern is the effect of OA on primary and

secondary productivity in the ecosystem. The Northeast U.S. shelf is strongly driven by bottom-up processes. Impacts on phytoplankton and zooplankton

ecology could have important ramifications for overall system productivity. Understanding the relationship between acidification and nutrient chemistry is

also a clear need, as primary productivity is ultimately

limited by nutrient supply.

Ocean acidification can affect primary productivity both directly and indirectly. Many marine phytoplankton are sensitive to changes in pH and temperature. A series of experiments will be conducted that

quantify the interactive effects of pH and temperature

on phytoplankton growth, physiology, and competition. These experiments will be complemented by a

retrospective analysis of field-collected data and targeted comparative field sampling, with a specific goal

of examining some of the effects and relationships

observed in the laboratory.

We will start with 15 individual strains of marine

phytoplankton from the Milford Microalgal Culture

Collection and add several calcifying strains (Coccolithus huxleyi; Ochrosphaera neopolitana) that will be

acquired from the Provasoli-Guillard Center for the

Culture of Marine Phytoplankton. Cells from each

strain will be cultured at different pH levels and flowcytometry will be used to quantify phytoplankton

abundance and cell-division rate and characterize selected physiological characteristics such as nutrient

status and internal pH. The second stage of experiments will examine the competitive interactions between pairs of microalgal species under varying pH

levels selected to examine important ecological and

physiological contrasts. These experiments will provide broad generalizations about likely shifts in phytoplankton community structure as a consequence of

competition modified by OA. The third stage of experiments will be based on phytoplankton communities

(multi-species) with several cultured species. These

experiments will be hypothesis-driven, in terms of

ecological principles, e.g., does the presence of a calcifying species modify the interaction between diatom species and will present a more ecologically relevant simulation of OA effects upon phytoplankton

communities.

In the field, we will examine the effect of pH on

natural phytoplankton communities in the Northeast

U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. Natural communities will be collected and experiments conducted

at conveniently located facilities (i.e., Howard Laboratory, Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary).

The laboratory experimental systems will be modified

for field studies and will build upon the experience

and knowledge gained in previous experiments.

A retrospective analysis of monitoring data will

be examined to determine whether changes in phytoplankton species composition have occurred and

evaluate the potential link to OA. The Ship of Opportunity Program has been collecting data on phytoplankton species composition since 1961 and there

is spatial variability in pH throughout the system.

A detailed analysis of the species composition with

available dissolved CO2 measurements will be examined. Based on lab results, predictions will be made

as to components of the phytoplankton community

that should be observed in areas of differing dissolved

CO2. These natural contrasts will inform both future

experiments and help in understanding the laboratory results in the context of the natural system.

An additional approach will be to develop genomic

assaying techniques to quantify genetic diversity and

to look at variation in phytoplankton community

structure over time. This technique can be used at

different taxonomic resolutions (i.e., species, genera,

families, etc.) and is being developed for several types

of marine organisms by researchers working under

umbrellas such as the Census of Marine Life and the

Marine Barcode of Life. Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary will serve as the regional test-bed for

the development of genetic diversity indices and assaying techniques through collaboration with other

research partners. Indices will then be monitored

over time to characterize the status of and changes in

primary producer diversity in relation to available dis-
100 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

solved CO2 and other environmental measures collected via EcoMon sampling in sanctuary waters.

6.2.2 Shellfish and finfish

Task 6.2.2: Create a state-of-the-art capability

in the Northeast for conducting acidification experiments on individual species and species assemblages of shellfish and finfish and estimate

the impact of ocean acidification on Northeast

ecosystem resource species.

To evaluate how finfish and shellfish species in the

ecosystems associated with the Northeast U.S.A. will

respond to acidification, we will design and construct

the capability for experimentally evaluating species’

responses. The NEFSC facility will be located at

the Howard Marine Sciences Laboratory and the first

phase is scheduled to be completed in 2010 as part

of the NMFS FY2010 OA Plan. The NEFSC has already developed a pilot-scale OA treatment system

that is currently being tested. Knowledge gained in

the development of the pilot system will be applied

to the design of the larger one. The NEFSC system

will be capable of conducting large-scale and replicated multi-factorial experiments. Analytical chemistry needs for the NEFSC facility will be met by

a combination of on-site capabilities, collaboration

with the Milford Laboratory, and quality control analysis with the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) carbon group.

We will use several test species of shellfish and finfish in order to draw the broadest levels of inferences

about the potential effects of OA. Our selected species

will be determined by economic value, habitat usage,

season of spawning, and feasibility of captive rearing, among other criteria. We will estimate the effects of OA on shellfish and finfish resource species

and measure responses that represent critical organismal functions.

6.2.2.1 Shellfish

Given preliminary results on the effect of OA on shell

formation and calcification rates, research on the region’s shellfish species is a clear priority. The sea scallop and lobster fisheries are two of the most valuable fisheries in the U.S., with landings exceeding

$340 million in 2007. Other important shellfish fisheries in the region are Atlantic surf clams, ocean quahogs (hard clams), bay scallops, softshell clams, mussels, and oysters. Sea urchins and sea cucumbers are

also minor fisheries in the Gulf of Maine. Several of

these species are being used in aquaculture, raising

the concern that OA will have an impact on commercial and stock enhancement culture operations.

Culture techniques for the Atlantic surf clam were

developed in the NEFSC Milford Laboratory 20 years

ago and this capability remains current at this facility.

In the initial experiments, we will rear newly hatched

larvae, juveniles, and adults. The formation of the

shell will be measured in larvae and the growth of

the shell will be measured in all life stages. Due to

the variable salinity and pH of the seawater at the

Milford Laboratory, we will be partnering with the

Martha’s Vineyard Shellfish Group (MVSG) to conduct

the experiments. We will also evaluate the potential increase in predation risk as a consequence of increased pCO2 by exposing Atlantic surf clams reared

at different pH levels to natural starfish predators in

the lab. Changes in shell growth may make Atlantic

surf clams more susceptible to size-selective predation and changes in shell rigidity may facilitate predation at all sizes.

After the experiments have been fine tuned for Atlantic surf clams, a focused effort will be directed on

the effects of OA on sea scallops. Sea scallop culture

is notoriously difficult but its status as the most valuable fishery species in the U.S. warrants attention and

effort. MVSG has some experience in culturing sea

scallop and will be a valuable partner in these experiments.

6.2.2.2 Finfish

A clear need exists to understand the impacts of OA

on finfish species. For fish, the limited number of

prior reports has noted effects of OA on a suite of

life stage, behavioral, and morphometric features important to the survival of young fish. Some research

has shown that OA can affect the olfactory system

and otolith growth in larval fish indicating potential

ecological consequences environment (Checkley, Jr.

et al., 2009). The otolith is an important sensory organ

and changes in calcification may affect behavior, including feeding and predator avoidance. In addition

to direct metabolic, sensory, and calcification effects,

there could be physiological consequences, reducing

the energy available for activity, growth, and reproduction. These physiological costs could be magnified when OA conditions are combined with other climate change parameters such as reduced levels of

dissolved oxygen, alterations in ocean temperatures,

and changes in ocean circulations patterns. Moreover,
Chapter 6. Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 101

increased ocean acidity has the potential to elicit substantial sublethal effects on fish by means of affecting

their normal developmental and behavioral capabilities during their sensitive early life-stages. For example, Munday et al. (2009) reported that settling reef

fish reared at high levels of pCO2 failed to successfully discriminate among reef microhabitat flora that

are key to subsequent survival.

We have identified finfish species that would not

only provide us with a high likelihood of experimental

success but provide the broadest possible basis for inferences about OA effects in the Northeast U.S.A. Atlantic ecosystem. These fish species represent shelf

and inshore waters and they differ in their economic

and ecosystem values, ecology, habitat, and other key

features relevant to projected OA and temperature

regimes (Table 6.1).

All of these species have been maintained and

reared under controlled laboratory conditions. These

experiments will mostly focus on the reproductive

and early life history features of the fish life cycle. The

use of a diverse set of species allows us to quantify

OA effects and address broader questions of interest

including: (1) Are species that spawn and have early

life-stages offshore more sensitive to changes in pH

than species that spawn and have early life-stages inshore? (2) Are species that spawn in winter and whose

early life-stages experience low temperatures more

sensitive to change in pH than species that spawn

and whose early life-stages experience warm summer

temperatures? (3) Are populations of species near the

extreme of their geographic distributions more likely

to be sensitive to the individual and/or combined effects of projected OA and temperature regime shifts

associated with climate change? (4) Do the data suggest that responses differ among taxonomic groupings?

In addition to the laboratory work, we also propose

targeted field sampling to use the documented spatial variability in pH (Theme 1) to evaluate whether

shell and otolith growth in selected shellfish and finfish species can be related to ambient pH and carbonate chemistry. Locations will be chosen based on

dissolved CO2 distribution resulting from the monitoring program. This work will include the collection

of species of interest as well as the collection of DIC

and TA samples to verify chemical conditions at the

time of collection. The purpose of this component is

to evaluate whether there are already signals of the effect of pH among species in the ecosystem.

6.2.2.3 Deep-sea coral

Habitats used by marine organisms may be impacted.

Deep-sea corals are found along much of the shelf

edge, especially near the Hudson canyon and at locations in the Gulf of Maine along with pockets of

shallow water corals and areas of calcareous algae.

These habitats, which may represent nursery grounds

for finfish, may be especially vulnerable to OA.

Relatively little is known about the ecology of the

deep-sea corals found in the northeast. Recent efforts have been made to characterize their distribution and abundance. In other oceanic regions, many

commercial and non-commercial fish species are associated with deep corals. While most associations

are believed to be facultative, fish and crabs use coral

habitat as refuge and as focal sites of high prey abundance. During 2010, photo reconnaissance with a

camera-equipped AUV will identify coral patches in

the area around the Hudson Canyon. Collections

of the solitary deep-sea hard coral Dasmosmilia lymani will be made to determine coral age and growth

rates in collaboration with other collaborative partners (e.g., NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program) in

order to develop a baseline against which to monitor

OA effects at the shelf edge.

6.2.2.4 North Atlantic Right Whale

Protected species will also be impacted and initial efforts will focus on forecasting the effect of OA on the

North Atlantic right whale, owing to their extremely

low population sizes. Endangered right whales feed

on copepod zooplankton which are vulnerable to OA

and some researchers have hypothesized that OA will

affect low-frequency sound propagation with negative consequences for marine animal communication. This work will primarily involve data synthesis and modeling built from existing information with

some focus on new data collection.

The North Atlantic right whale has become rare

(300–400 individuals) and endangered and even

marginal impacts can have grave consequences for

the species. We will examine the potential effect

of changes in sound propagation on right whale

communication in Stellwagen Bank National Marine

Sanctuary (SBNMS). Increasing acidification may affect frequency sound propagation conditions, which

in turn could have negative consequences for vocalizing marine animal communication ranges. The

Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, the

NEFSC, and Cornell University have established a

high-resolution acoustic monitoring program to map
102 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Table 6.1: Proposed finfish species for OA experiments and their economic and ecosystem values, ecology, habitat, and other

key features.

Species Spawning season Spawning habitat Egg/larval habitat Primary value

(1) summer flounder (Paralichthys

dentatus)

autumn shelf water column economic

(2) winter flounder

(Pseudopleuronectes americanus)

winter estuaries benthic/water column economic

(3) black sea bass (Centropristis

striata)

summer shelf water column economic

(4) shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser

brevirostrum)

spring–summer estuaries (upper fresh) benthic endangered

human-induced noise in greater sanctuary waters

in relation to the behavior of vocally active marine

species. The sanctuary-based study has included empirically driven propagation modeling for this system,

including calculations of communication range for

individual calling animals. This model will be used

to predict the consequences of OA on communication ranges for different species, and to better understand the influence of spatial and temporal variance

in propagation conditions on low-frequency communication.

6.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem

Models (Theme 3)

Task 6.3: Develop and implement models to assess the effects of ocean acidification on singlespecies dynamics, multi-species interactions,

and overall ecosystem productivity.

The region has a strong modeling community and

numerous regional models; however, these have yet

to be applied to the OA issue. The NEFSC has

vast experience with single-species population models and is continuing to develop environmentally explicit, single-species models as well as multi-species

models, habitat suitability models, trophic network

models, and aggregate production models. Through

the Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)

program, a number of numerical circulation models

were developed for the region; some of these have

been coupled with regional nutrient-phytoplanktonzooplankton (NPZ) models and some have included

early life stages of fishes. NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid

Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and other climate modeling centers have developed Earth System Models capable of hindcasting and forecasting OA globally over

multiple decades that can be used to inform regional

ecosystem simulations. Finally, there is strong expertise in ocean carbon and biogeochemistry at regional NOAA/academic institutions and this experience could be brought to bear within the region.

Initially, the results of single shellfish and finfish

species will be used to parameterize population models relative to different levels of dissolved CO2 in

the system. As results become available for multiple species, models will be parameterized with the

effects of acidification on growth, reproductive output, and natural mortality. The experimental results

from larvae and juveniles will be included in population models as recruitment effects. The coupled OApopulation models will then be used to forecast population productivity under several acidification “scenarios” which will be developed based on IPCC carbon emission scenarios and resulting forecasts of dissolved CO2 on the northeast U.S. shelf. Comparison

of the MARMAP data with present-day data will assist with estimating dissolved CO2 from atmospheric

CO2. These forecasts will have a range of uncertainties, which we will try to capture, but the goal is to

provide an initial assessment of the effect of OA on

marine resource species over the coming decades and

through the coming century.

The results of the research on phytoplankton will

be used to assess the effect of OA on system-wide productivity and phytoplankton community structure.

Existing planktonic ecosystem models (i.e., NPZ) will

be expanded to include multiple phytoplankton types

that encompass the range of important ecological

phytoplankton groups studied. The response of each

group to acidification will be parameterized based on

experimental data generated in Task 6.2.2. The expanded ecosystem models will be embedded in regional hydrodynamic simulations, validated against

past observations and those carried out as part of this

study, and used to predict the impact of a range of

plausible acidification changes. This will be translated to an estimate of total sustainable fisheries extractions through methods established at the Groundfish Assessment Review Meeting (GARM). Additional
Chapter 6. Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 103

modeling efforts will be developed as more information is generated during the course of laboratory and

targeted field studies.

To address the effects of increasing acidification on

the endangered right whale, the Whale Habitat Informatics Project (WHIP, http://gmri.org/whales/)

is currently developing a right whale likelihood product which merges model forecasts with field observations and merges satellite sea surface temperature

(SST) and chlorophyll to model the right whale’s main

zooplankton prey. A second model developed by

collaborators at the Provincetown Center for Coastal

Studies predicts individual right whale feeding behavior in relation to spatial distribution and abundance

in Cape Cod Bay. The integration of higher-resolution

empirical data that reflects a better understanding of

OA impacts on the availability and quality of food resources could increase the predictive strength of these

models and enhance NOAA’s ability to manage right

whales within northeast waters.

Ultimately, the expanded NPZ and biogeochemical models will be linked with upper trophic level responses and incorporated into regional ocean model

simulations. Multi-decadal hindcast simulations

forced by atmospheric reanalysis products will be

conducted to refine model dynamics and provide

a holistic understanding of past observed variations

in primary productivity, phytoplankton community

structure, and resource species. Climate change projections will also be conducted through either (a)

off-line coupling to hydrodynamic fields from high

resolution physical climate model simulations which

are under development; or (b) regional hydrodynamic simulations driven by global ESM boundary

conditions and atmospheric forcing. The approach

taken will be contingent upon progress toward highresolution global climate model development and

progress toward robust nesting approaches for regional models of the eastern United States within

coarse global climate simulations. This holistic model

will be constructed through collaborations across

NOAA line offices and in academia.

6.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

Task 6.4: Estimate anticipated changes to northeast ecosystem services as a consequence of OA

and develop a decision framework for adaptation

strategies.

The analysis of the human dimensions of OA will

consist of two interrelated components. First is estimating how acidification is likely to affect the human community though impacts on “ecosystem services” or the value of benefits to human communities

as a result of functioning ecosystem processes. Analysis of the value of the fishery declines anticipated

in the Northeast region is needed, although Cooley

and Doney (2009) have done an initial analysis of the

potential economic cost from a national perspective.

The human dimension analysis also includes the development of a framework for deciding what to do

about acidification. Choices about adopting various

CO2 emission strategies and the implications of those

adopted scenarios will need to be informed by the

best available science. In the Northeast, these choices

will need to be considered within the broader context

of how to confront other stressors to the ecosystem

such as eutrophication, how to prepare fishing-based

economies for ecosystem changes, whether to implement spatial or temporal fisheries changes, etc. Making these decisions will require consideration of ecological predictions, the value of ecosystem services,

and the economic and social costs of proposed actions. The decision process will need to transparently incorporate the considerable uncertainty that

exists in all of the input parameters. There is substantial technical work required among NOAA and academic partners in the Northeast to develop socioeconomic models and decision frameworks to address

the unique impacts of ocean acidification on Northeast communities and the economy.

6.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

Task 6.5.1: Provide a first integrated assessment

of the effects of OA on the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem.

The work described above is directed toward the development of an assessment of the effect of OA on the

northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. The audience of the assessment will be scientists and policymakers alike. The form of the assessment will be similar to other Integrated Assessments produced within

NOAA. The assessment will draw heavily on work

done as part of this project, but will also incorporate

the results of all research that is relevant. There are

several groups that are working within the northeast
104 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

U.S. shelf region (e.g., UNH, AOML, and WHOI) and

there will certainly be additional research conducted

around the globe that will be relevant. Data management staff and improvements to computer-based infrastructure will be required to ensure an organized

and coordinated result. The resulting document will

provide the first regionally specific assessment of the

effects of OA and serve as a tool for identifying critical gaps in our understanding and providing a basis

for future research to fill these knowledge gaps. Importantly, this assessment will provide a quantitative

framework describing the effects of OA on resource

species in the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. The assessment will be iterative, similar to that

described for the IEA process; the timescale of reassessment will be approximately five years.

6.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Task 6.6: Identify target audiences and determine appropriate programs and products utilizing innovative approaches for community involvement.

Using resources already present in the region, NOAA

can begin the process of disseminating important

information on the causes and potential effects of

ocean acidification on our coast and ocean ecosystems to ocean user groups and the general public.

The first steps in developing an action plan for education and outreach for the northeast are to:

1. Identify target audiences;

2. Determine appropriate programs and products

for each audience;

3. Develop a comprehensive needs assessment to

education and outreach programming;

4. Match ocean acidification needs with existing

education and outreach activities; and

5. Develop innovative approaches for community

involvement.

NOAA regional offices (NMFS, NERRS, NMS, Sea

Grant, Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National Weather Service) and their research

partners can provide OA information in general outreach tools and programs. The SBNMS can also include OA stories in publications, such as Stellwagen

Banknotes and Stellwagen Soundings, as can other

NOAA publications released in the region. Possible

products for development include a standard PowerPoint presentation for the general public that illustrates the issues; a general traveling exhibit for use

at public venues; press releases and backgrounders

for dissemination through the NOAA public affairs

network; the use of new media, including podcasts,

blogs, YouTube videos, tweets, etc; and distance

learning programs that are broadcast over the internet to reach educators and other interested members

of the general public, and to serve as educational resources to supplement content in college courses. Education and outreach programs can include science

experiments for the classroom, student data collections, workshops and training programs with constituents, and internet access to research findings and

data that inform stakeholders and provide mutual understanding of issues related to OA.

Periodic workshops could be held for coastal managers. The purpose would be to communicate the

status of OA investigations, provide information as to

the current and potential future state of OA in the

northeast region, and maintain a dialogue between

NOAA OA scientists and the region’s management

community. Attendance would be open and would

include: the regional fishery management councils,

NOAA managers (e.g., NERR’s and NMS’s), state fishery managers, and others who have interest. The

state managers would also be included through the

involvement of the Northeast Regional Ocean Council, which is composed of state and provincial representatives for the New England region. A similar

group is under development in the Mid-Atlantic region and would be included in these workshops.

The NEFSC is involved in numerous joint activities with the Canadians, providing multiple pathways

for cooperation. Several fisheries stocks are assessed

under a Transboundary Resource Assessment Committee; information on single species effects can be

coordinated in this framework. Additionally, joint

ecosystem-based management activities are underway in the Gulf of Maine, providing an avenue for

communication and cooperation on ecosystem effects. To contribute to these management activities,

the NEFSC already shares data with the Canadians

and these existing protocols will be used. Canadian

scientists also are involved in one of the Regional

IOOS Associations and the Northeast Regional Ocean

Council includes representatives of provincial governments providing additional venues for cooperation

and communication. International cooperation exists

with Norway.

6.7 Collaborators
Chapter 6. Northeast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan 105

Northeast Region Collaborators

Northeast Fisheries Science Center

Office of National Marine Sanctuaries

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Sea Grant Colleges (e.g., RI, MA, NH, DE)

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

University of New Hampshire

Old Dominion University

Regional OOS (NERACOOS, MACOORA)

National Estuarine Research Reserve System

Martha’s Vineyard Shellfish Group

Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary

Cornell University

Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies

7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan

Simone R. Alin, Jennifer Day, Galen McKinley,

Craig Stow, Mary Baker, Ellen Brody, Reed

Bohne, Thomas Nalepa, Terry Heatlie,

Adrienne J. Sutton, and Richard A. Feely

7.0 Lake Acidification in the Great

Lakes Region

The Great Lakes provide invaluable ecosystem

goods and services to the United States and

Canadian economies; they collectively contain 20% of the world’s freshwater, yield robust recreational and commercial fish catches, provide critical shipping and transportation routes, and significantly influence regional climate (Bonan, 1995; ILEC,

1999). Despite their enormity, the lakes have been

affected by many anthropogenic stressors, including

excessive nutrient loading from agriculture and urbanization, toxic pollutants from atmospheric deposition and contaminated sediment (PCBs, pesticides,

mercury), invasive species (zebra and quagga mussels, Eurasian ruffe, round gobys, lampreys), and climate change (changes in ice cover, precipitation, water temperature and stratification, lake levels, and terrestrial nutrient and carbon inputs). However, the potential for impacts under increasing atmospheric CO2

levels and any consequent acidification that may occur in the Great Lakes has not been systematically

evaluated. Assessing the susceptibility of the lakes to

increasing atmospheric CO2 is challenging; the acidification actually experienced will be the net result of

many simultaneous processes operating at differing

spatial and temporal scales, as well as feedbacks that

may be difficult to anticipate.

In the open ocean, acidification from anthropogenic CO2 uptake has been reported to cause a

0.002 yr–1 decrease in pH (Bates, 2001; Byrne et al.,

2010; Doney et al., 2009a; Santana-Casiano et al.,

2007), with higher rates observed in coastal waters

(e.g., Borges et al., 2010). However, the Great Lakes

may respond differently to acidification than openocean systems for several reasons. First, the Great

Lakes (GL) have a lower alkalinity than the open

oceans and are thus less well buffered against pH

changes. The average alkalinity of the GL ranges from

36% (Superior) to 95% (Michigan) of surface ocean

alkalinity (Table 7.1). Because these lakes are less

buffered than marine environments, they typically experience a greater range of natural variability in pH

and related parameters (Table 7.1). If the approximate equilibrium with atmospheric pCO2 observed in

Lake Superior over the last decade (Atilla et al., 2010)

continues through the next 80 years, lake pH may decline by on the order of 0.15 pH units by mid-century

and 0.30 by 2090 under IPCC emissions scenario A2,

which represents a pH decrease of 0.004 yr–1, a rate

twice that observed in the ocean (Figure 7.1). This calculation is made for illustrative purposes only, as we

expect the future trajectory of lake pH will likely be

substantially more complicated.

Although water residence time decreases in the

lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario), a large portion

of the influent waters comes from the upper Great

Lakes (Superior, Huron, Michigan), so the lower

lakes should inherit the signature of acidification that

has accumulated in the upper watershed (Table 7.2)

(Quinn, 1980). Also, because the GL are in a continental setting, the deposition of acidic nitrogen (N)

and sulfur (S) compounds should be comparable to

the coastal oceans, where it has been estimated that

N and S deposition can increase acidification by ∼10–

50% or more over acidification expected from anthropogenic CO2 uptake alone (Doney et al., 2007). Second, the Great Lakes destratify and mix vertically in

spring and fall each year when their water columns

are isothermal at 4◦C and CO2 solubility is high, such

that, unlike the open oceans, some anthropogenic

CO2 should penetrate the entire water column of the

lakes each year. Thus, the rate of acidification at

depth may be rapid relative to rates in the ocean (on

the order of a few years to decades vs. decades to centuries). Concurrently, the vertical mixing that the GL

experience also provides an opportunity for the release of CO2 that accumulates in the hypolimnion, an

107
108 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Great Lakes Region Description

Image: Summer climatology of chlorophyll from SeaWiFs (NASA)

The Laurentian Great Lakes—Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario—contain nearly 20% of the world’s freshwater, with a combined lake surface area of 244,000 km2. Together the five lakes, along with thousands of smaller

lakes, lie in the 767,000 km2 watershed for the St. Lawrence River. The Great Lakes are bordered by the states of

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of

Ontario. The Great Lakes provide the region’s ∼34 million people with drinking water, transportation corridors, rich

fisheries, hydroelectric power, and aesthetic and recreational outlets. The Great Lakes coastline is 17,549 km long, with

35,000 islands among the lakes. Prior to human impact, estimates suggest the Great Lakes had up to 180 indigenous

fish species, with varying ecological communities across the five lakes, depending on each lake’s prevailing climatic conditions and physical characteristics. Ecologically and economically important native Great Lakes fish species include the

Coaster brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), which resides only in the upper Great Lakes, and the lake trout (Salvelinus

namaykush), lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens), lake herring (Coregonus artedii), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), which occur in all five lakes. At present, the Great Lakes ecosystems face a number of grave environmental

threats, including the ecological impacts of approximately 185 non-native aquatic species, toxic and nutrient pollution,

habitat destruction, animal and human disease outbreaks, and climate change.

area of net respiration. In total, either an increase

in CO2 uptake or a decrease in outgassing of CO2 by

the GL resulting from the changed air-lake CO2 gradient will be manifested as a greater CO2 inventory in

the lakes as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2.

Thus, the processes that influence acidification in the

GL differ in many important respects from those in

the open oceans. These processes have not been well

quantified to date, and their likely net effects are not

well understood.

The Great Lakes also differ in many important respects from other freshwater systems in which acidification processes have been studied. Historical studies on poorly buffered, soft-water lakes in landscapes

lacking carbonate bedrock in eastern North America

and Europe indicated that acidification due to deposition of acidic nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds could profoundly alter the species composition of freshwater ecosystems (see, for example, special issues on acid deposition and ecosystem impacts

in Water, Air, and Soil Pollution (1986, vol. 31[3–4] and

1987, vol. 35[1–2]), Ambio (1993, vol. 22[5]), and Journal of Paleolimnology (1990, vol. 3[3]). All of the Laurentian Great Lakes except Lake Superior have significant proportions of carbonate rocks in their drainage

basins. Runoff from landscapes dominated by carbonate rocks, such as limestone and dolomite, has

higher alkalinity (or buffering capacity) than runoff

from landscapes with granitic, sandstone, and other

non-carbonate mineralogies in the Great Lakes basin.

Consequently, none of the Great Lakes was observed

to undergo acidification related to 20th-century acid

deposition. Changes in pH observed in soft-water

lakes as a result of anthropogenic acid deposition

were frequently on the order of full pH units and over

timescales of decades, whereas acidification from uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is expected to occur at a

slower rate over longer timescales, as the problem of
Chapter 7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan 109

Table 7.1: Temperature and chemical attributes of the five major Great Lake basins. All

data are from semi-annual sampling.

Years sampled Temperature Alkalinity

Lake by EPA (◦C)† (μmol kg–1)

† pH† Ωarag

‡

Upper Great Lakes

Huron 1983–2009 6.7 ± 6.7 1561 ± 41 8.21 ± 0.2 0.96 ± 0.62

(0.2–24.2) (1263–1854) (7.23–8.74) (0.07–4.19)

Michigan 1983–2009 7.1 ± 6.7 2181 ± 39 8.35 ± 0.2 2.32 ± 1.6

(0.5–27.0) (1724–2335) (7.53–9.17) (0.27–12.99)

Superior 1996–2009 5.4 ± 4.8 834 ± 17 8.00 ± 0.2 0.15 ± 0.08

(0.3–20.2) (762–952) (7.45–8.69) (0.03–0.78)

Lower Great Lakes

Erie 1983–2009 11.3 ± 9 1817 ± 97 8.26 ± 0.3 2.37 ± 2.0

(0.1–27.5) (1383–2174) (6.65–9.00) (0.03–13.78)

Ontario 1985–2009 7.8 ± 7.2 1836 ± 65 8.30 ± 0.2 2.17 ± 1.93

(1.2–26.4) (1463–2044) (7.58–8.98) (0.33–12.40)

Global Oceans

Surface¶ 1990–1998 16.09 ± 10.4 2302.7 ± 48 8.108 ± 0.05 2.98 ± 1.3

†Data were downloaded from the Great Lakes Environmental Database (www.epa.gov/glnpo/

monitoring/data_proj/glenda). Parameters to the right of the sampling years column are

average values (±SE) across all years and depths sampled, except as noted. Ranges are reported

in parentheses. Number of measurements for each lake for temperature, alkalinity, and pH

were as follows: Huron—7396, 6856, and 6438, respectively; Michigan—7641, 7211, and 6701;

Superior—5708, 4094, and 4094; Erie—8292, 7920, and 7404; and Ontario—4748, 4476, and

4332.

‡Aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) values and carbonate ion concentrations ([CO2−

3 ]) were calculated from pH and alkalinity data using equations in Dickson et al. (2007) in the Excel version

of the CO2SYS program (Pierrot et al., 2006). Calcium data were available from all lakes for the

period prior to the dreissenid mussel invasion of the lakes from references in Alin and Johnson

(2007). Post-dreissenid calcium data for Erie and Ontario were available from Barbiero et al.

(2006). Saturation states were calculated for the lower Great Lakes for all years and only for the

pre-dreissenid years (until 1990) in the upper Great Lakes, as calcium concentrations there may

have changed because of dreissenid calcification and there are no data available.

¶Global average surface ocean data from the GLODAP project are from Feely et al. (2009).

Table 7.2: Physical attributes of the Great Lakes†.

Mean Maximum Volume Surface Land drainage Water residence

depth (m) depth (m) (km3) area (km2) area (km2) time (yr)

Huron 59 229 3,540 59,600 134,100 22

Michigan 85 282 4,920 57,800 118,000 99

Superior 147 406 12,100 82,100 127,700 191

Erie 19 64 484 25,700 78,000 2.6

Ontario 86 244 1,640 18,960 64,030 6

†From The Great Lakes: An Environmental Atlas and Resource Book (www.epa.gov/greatlakes/

atlas/gl-fact1.html).

CO2 emissions will not be reversed as easily as acid

deposition has been and the atmospheric lifetime of

CO2 is substantially longer than those of acidic N and

S compounds.

It has been argued, on the basis of no observed directional pH trend in the Great Lakes during the 20thcentury increase in industrial acid deposition, that

the large volume of the lakes and the prevalence of

naturally buffering carbonate minerals in GL drainage

basins makes them relatively invulnerable to the effects of acid deposition (SOLEC, 2000), and by extension, anthropogenic CO2 uptake. However, contemporaneous increases in nutrient inputs from atmospheric, agricultural, and urban sources during the

20th century may have countered the acidifying effects of N and S inputs by stimulating the uptake of

CO2 through primary production, resulting in an increase in pH (or decrease in acidity), rather than the
110 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Figure 7.1: Lake Superior’s pH can be expected to decrease

as a function of pCO2 over the coming century if the lake

pCO2 continues to keep pace with atmospheric CO2 increases (alkalinity = 840 μmol kg–1). Red vertical lines indicate atmospheric pCO2 levels observed in 2009 and expected in 2050 and 2090 under IPCC emissions scenario A2

(moderate). The dashed and solid black lines represent the

relationships between pCO2 and pH at water temperatures

of 20◦C (dashed line) and 5◦C (solid line), respectively.

decrease in pH that would be expected from acidification alone. Enrichment of phosphate and nitrate

fluxes to the lakes from agricultural, urban, and atmospheric sources led to basin-wide eutrophication

in the lower Great Lakes and localized eutrophication

within the upper Great Lakes during the 20th century (Hodell and Schelske, 1998; Hodell et al., 1998;

Magnuson et al., 1997; Munawar and Munawar, 2001;

Schelske and Hodell, 1991; 1995). Inputs of anthropogenic phosphate to the lakes have been successfully abated during the last 40 years (International

Joint Commission, 1980), and acid deposition in the

eastern half of North America has also been successfully mitigated during the last 30 years (Figure 7.2)

(U.S.–Canada Air Quality Committee, 2008).

Thus, while the GL have some similarities to the

open oceans as well as other freshwater systems,

there are also important differences that require directed research to more fully understand the likely response of the lakes to atmospheric CO2 increases. It

should be possible to improve our understanding of

the relative contributions of acidification, eutrophication, and invasive species to the observed changes

in Great Lake biogeochemical cycles, as well as the

likely consequence of mitigation efforts, through a

combination of high-quality carbon measurements,

organismal response experiments, and coupled biogeochemical/ecosystem modeling.

Figure 7.2: Maps of wet sulfate and nitrate deposition in

1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005 (U.S.–Canada Air Quality Committee, 2008).

7.0.1 Confounding factors

Since the late 1980s, when invasive zebra mussels

were first observed in the Great Lakes, these dreissenid mussels have played an increasingly important

role in the energy and nutrient cycles of the Great

Lakes. As filter feeders, the mussels are very effective at filtering phytoplankton from the water column

of lakes and rivers (Fahnenstiel et al., 1995; Hebert

et al., 1991; Holland, 1993; MacIsaac, 1996; Roditi

et al., 1996). As an example of the potential ecosystem

consequences of this efficient filtration, the hypothesis has been advanced that changes in GL fish populations may reflect the co-optation of the base of the

food web by dreissenid mussels from the lakes’ native

zooplankton and fish species, but this idea is just beginning to be studied.
Chapter 7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan 111

In addition to their substantial impacts on nutrient and energy flow in GL food webs (Hecky et al.,

2004), the overpopulation of GL basins by calcifying organisms like the dreissenid mussels has substantially decreased water column alkalinity and calcium concentrations in the lower Great Lakes (Barbiero et al., 2006). The substantial increase in calcification rates in the Great Lakes (calcification reaction:

2 HCO−

3 + Ca2+ → CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O) would not

only reduce alkalinity but would also be expected to

cause an increase in CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), a

decrease in pH, and a decrease in carbonate mineral

saturation states (Ωarag for aragonite and Ωcal for calcite) in the absence of other processes (Sarmiento and

Gruber, 2006).

Because of the potentially confounding effects of

eutrophication, dreissenid mussel metabolism and

calcification, and climate change, it is particularly

critical in the Great Lakes region that a lake acidification program builds strong partnerships with other

agencies and academic institutions to ensure that

lake acidification effects can be carefully attributed to

distinguish them from the impacts of other environmental stressors in the Great Lakes system.

7.1 Developing a Lake Acidification

Monitoring Network (Theme 1)

7.1.1 Water chemistry monitoring

Task 7.1.1: Develop and implement a monitoring

network to measure lake carbon chemistry parameters related to acidification, with coverage

across all five lakes and all seasons.

A recent compilation of historical water chemistry

data from the Great Lakes suggested that the surface waters of the open GL tend to be supersaturated

with CO2 most of the time, which would indicate that

the lakes are net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere

(Alin and Johnson, 2007). However, a new analysis suggests that Lake Superior is roughly in equilibrium with the atmosphere (Atilla et al., 2010). Regardless of how saturated the waters are with respect to

dissolved CO2 gas, increasing atmospheric CO2 can

be expected to cause either net invasion of CO2 into

lake waters or a decrease in outgassing of CO2 to the

atmosphere as the air-water concentration gradient

changes. Either trend would result in an effective net

increase of CO2 in lake waters, with acidification resulting. With respect to the hypotheses put forth in

Chapter 1, we expect that the water columns of the

Great Lakes will increase in CO2 from the atmosphere

at a rate that keeps pace with the atmospheric accumulation of anthropogenic CO2, causing the water columns of the lakes to undergo acidification at a

rate equal to or somewhat higher than in the oceans.

However, because of the lower buffering capacity of

lake water compared to seawater, we expect to see

a larger range of natural variation in inorganic carbon chemistry than in the oceans (Table 7.1). We expect that many freshwater organisms have broader

tolerances with respect to pH, saturation state, and

CO2 because of their adaptation to the higher natural

variability in these parameters expected in freshwater

ecosystems. These considerations and the confounding anthropogenic stressors described previously suggest that detecting an acidification trend in the Great

Lakes will likely be at least as difficult as in coastal

marine ecosystems and will require time-series measurements with high precision and accuracy (cf., Fig.

2 in Borges et al., 2010).

Testing the hypothesis that the Great Lakes will

track the atmospheric increase in CO2 and become

acidified will require a combination of observational

and modeling approaches. An appropriate observational effort would consist of high-resolution moored

and ship-based underway measurements of inorganic

carbon (e.g., pCO2 and a second carbon parameter

(cf. Chapter 1) at the lakes’ surface, along with highprecision, high-accuracy inorganic carbon analyses of

discrete water samples collected throughout the water column of each lake. The semi-annual Great Lakes

cruises conducted by the Environmental Protection

Agency (EPA) each spring and summer would provide

an excellent platform for water column carbon sampling and underway measurements (Table 7.1). The

EPA already samples a suite of chemical, biological,

and physical parameters in the water, sediments, and

air of the Great Lakes. However, the differing conclusions of Great Lakes lake-atmosphere flux studies to

date largely hinge on the quality of pH observations

used in the calculation of pCO2 (Alin and Johnson,

2007; Atilla et al., 2010). The potentiometric (i.e., electrode) pH measurements used in the EPA’s standard

pH protocol have an order of magnitude lower precision and frequently a significant offset from true pH

values compared to newer, more accurate methods

and are not of sufficiently high quality to track lake

acidification (Byrne et al., 2010; Clayton and Byrne,

1993; Dickson et al., 2007; French et al., 2002). The existing semi-annual cruises of the EPA monitoring program would be complemented well by the addition

of high-quality carbon measurements through a part-
112 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

nership with NOAA. This potential interagency synergy offers an efficient opportunity to firmly establish

the current state of pH and the carbon system in the

Great Lakes and to begin developing a robust strategy

for long-term monitoring.

To complement water column measurements, underway measurements of pCO2 and a second carbon

parameter at the lake surface could be collected at

higher spatial resolution on Great Lakes research and

monitoring vessels. It would be beneficial to have underway carbon systems on the NOAA R/V Laurentian,

which travels throughout the Great Lakes on a regular basis, as well as on the EPA R/V Lake Guardian,

which is the platform for EPA’s semi-annual monitoring cruises. Underway systems can collect surface carbon data anytime the instrumented vessels

are on the lakes for research, monitoring, or transit, collecting valuable additional data and improving the understanding of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability in the lakes’ carbon cycle. With

the importance of dreissenid calcification in the Great

Lakes, ideally the second parameter on both underway and moored (see below) carbon systems would

be alkalinity. Surface underway measurements would

facilitate improved resolution for generating CO2 flux

maps and estimating net anthropogenic CO2 accumulation in the lakes.

To provide improved understanding of temporal

variability, two approaches would complement semiannual cruise sampling and opportunistic underway

measurements: deploying moored sensors and working with regional partners to establish time-series

stations for more frequent water column measurements. Moored deployments should include sensors

for pCO2 or a second carbon parameter (ideally alkilinity), oxygen, and nutrients. Moored sensor packages could be mounted on NOAA National Data Buoy

Center (NDBC) weather buoys in the open water domain of the lakes, but would preferably be installed

on moorings that would allow for sensor deployment

at multiple depths. Moored sensors can yield highresolution records (∼3-hr intervals) of inorganic carbon variability throughout the annual cycle. Ideally at least two moorings (e.g., one open lake, one

nearshore) per lake would be deployed across the full

range of natural and anthropogenic gradients existing across the Great Lakes system. For instance, primary production varies by a factor of up to ∼7 from

the upper GL to the lower GL basins (Table 7.3). In

addition, human population density, land-use patterns, nutrient loading, and the dominance of invasive species vary strongly across the lakes (Table 7.3,

Figure 7.2). Natural factors such as watershed geology, water chemistry, lake size, and water residence

time also vary substantially across lakes (Tables 7.1–

7.3). Initial mooring efforts are proposed to focus on

open-lake environments that would reflect conditions

of the majority of the lakes’ surface area. However,

during the initial year of the GL study, effort will be

made to identify representative or critical nearshore

locations that will allow more detailed study of the

combined impacts of acidification and other stressors, such as dreissenid mussel populations.

Initial acidification surveys should identify potential time-series stations that may be accessible and

of scientific interest for more frequent water-column

sampling than that conducted by the EPA’s semiannual cruises. Ideally, partners at regional institutions would be able to make sensor measurements

and collect water samples for inorganic carbon measurements at these time-series stations throughout

the water column on a monthly basis throughout the

year, with more frequent sampling during the summer growing season. Special emphasis on collecting

samples during winter months is also warranted because when carbonate saturation levels would be lowest in winter due to cold water temperatures and historical data for winter are especially lacking. Sampling time-series stations will also provide important

verification data for regional biogeochemical models.

Improvements to the long-term monitoring

schemes for inorganic carbon chemistry in the Great

Lakes will allow us to monitor the pace of lake

acidification through the 21st century. The EPA is

currently in the process of reevaluating its criteria for

monitoring and regulating pH changes in U.S. water

bodies. A possible outcome of this review process is

that the EPA will adopt the more precise and accurate

methods for monitoring pH recommended by the

chemical oceanography community in response to an

EPA request for information (Environmental Protection Agency, 2009). Collaboration among NOAA, EPA,

and academic scientists on the semi-annual Great

Lakes cruises would be an opportunity for sharing

expertise in an interagency framework.

7.1.2 Biological monitoring

Task 7.1.2: Develop and implement a Great Lakes

strategy to monitor biological response to lake

acidification.

A broad suite of stressors, including overfishing,

nutrient inputs, toxic contaminants, and invasive

species, have put Great Lakes ecosystems in a state
Chapter 7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan 113

Table 7.3: Natural and anthropogenic gradients across the Great Lakes.

Land-use categories§

Primary Human Dreissenid

production population % basin % basin % basin N loading¶ P loading¶ Mineralogy in density

Lake (g C m–2 y–1)

† in millions‡§ agricultural residential forest (t km–3 y–1) (t km–3 y–1) watershed (indivs m–2)£

Huron 86 2.7 27 2 68 7.0 1.4 C, Gg, S/Sh 1,255

Michigan 128–144 10.1 44 9 41 n.a. 1.4 C, S, Sh 11,480

Superior 52–66 0.6 3 1 91 7.9 n.a. Gg, S n.a.

Erie 104–341 11.9 67 10 21 501 36 C 601–9,480

Ontario 137–242 8.2 39 7 49 107 17 C, S 8,106

†From Alin and Johnson (2007).

‡From The Great Lakes: An Environmental Atlas and Resource Book (www.epa.gov/greatlakes/atlas/gl-fact2.html).

§Population data are from 1990 (U.S.) and 1991 (Canada)

¶Data from the World Lake Database (wldb.ilec.or.jp), Bennett (1986), and the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study (www.epa.gov/

med/grosseile_site/LMMBP/eutrophication.htm).

In order of prevalence. Mineralogy abbreviations: Gg, granite and gneiss; C, carbonate (e.g., limestone); S, sandstone; Sh, shale (water.

usgs.gov/ogw/pubs/WRI004008/figure02.htm). £Densities for 30–90 m water depth. Sources: Huron in 2007 (T. Nalepa, unpub.), Michigan in 2005 (Nalepa et al., 2009), Erie (Patterson

et al., 2005), and Ontario in 2003 (Watkins et al., 2007) .

of nearly continuous transition for at least the past

50 years. This constantly changing baseline will make

the added impacts of acidification particularly difficult to disentangle. Previous observations from controlled, whole-lake acidification experiments underscore this point. Meticulous monitoring of Little Rock

Lake, a 17-hectare lake in northern Wisconsin, revealed numerous surprises as the pH was systematically lowered from approximately 6.1 to 4.7 over six

years (1985–1991). Daphnia (small planktonic crustaceans) and mayflies exhibited immediate declines,

while other biota such as yellow perch responded

with initial increases, followed by declines. Extensive filamentous algal growth provided a refuge for

some zooplankton species such that these species responded with population increases instead of the decreases that had been predicted from laboratory experiments. In short, even though the Little Rock Lake

Project was well planned, carefully manipulated, and

intensively monitored, responses were observed that

were not anticipated or well understood (Stow et al.,

1998). Thus, to document and understand the effects of acidification in the Great Lakes, it will be essential to establish a well-designed observational network that utilizes key chemical and biological indicators, operates at a range of spatial and temporal

scales, and is supported by directed studies to reveal

the plausible causal links between acidification and

any observed changes with time.

To complement water chemistry measurements,

concurrent sampling of phytoplankton and zooplankton populations at the semi-annual cruise stations

would facilitate the determination of relationships between CO2 chemistry and key components of the

ecosystem that support lake food webs. Biological

measurements on the EPA’s R/V Lake Guardian during the semi-annual monitoring cruises as well as

during research and monitoring cruises on NOAA

Great Lakes vessels Laurentian and Huron Explorer

should be a priority. Opportunities for leveraged

monitoring partnerships with the Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve should also be explored. In addition to enhanced phytoplankton and

zooplankton monitoring, NOAA’s Mussel Watch program, which monitors coastal contamination levels

through regular sampling of dreissenid mussel tissue

in the Great Lakes, could enhance their ongoing annual collection and analysis of mussel specimens to

quantify shell calcification (e.g., shell thickness measurements, hardness, etc.) in invasive mussels. Coordinated collection of water samples from habitats of

dense mussel populations sampled by Mussel Watch

would also help to develop our understanding of the

relationship between water chemistry and mussel tolerances and growth rates. Populations of dreissenid

mussels may also be sufficiently high in certain field

localities that their in situ calcification rates would be

amenable to analysis using remotely collected water

samples collected over some interval of time (e.g., diel

or seasonal cycle).

7.2 Organism Response to Lake

Acidification (Theme 2)

Task 7.2.1: Build NOAA capacity to study organismal response to lake acidification in manipu-
114 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

Organisms of Near-Term Focus

Invasive species: Zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and

quagga (D. rostriformis bugensis) mussels

Native species: Unionid bivalves (42 Great Lakes

species)

Native amphipod species: Diporeia spp.

lation experiments where effects of environmental factors on species can be studied individually

and in combination.

Prior to European settlement of the St. Lawrence

drainage basin, the Great Lakes ecosystem had a

rich native fish fauna, with up to 180 indigenous

fish species inhabiting the GL basin. Stressors related to human activities in the watershed and on

the lakes have significantly and permanently altered

the Great Lakes ecosystem, including the introduction of invasive aquatic species, overfishing, nutrient

and toxic pollution, and habitat alteration. As a result of these anthropogenic environmental stresses,

energy and nutrient flows in Great Lakes food webs

have been fundamentally altered, with dreissenid

mussels in particular influencing species composition among both primary producers and consumers

(e.g., Bykova et al., 2006; Hecky et al., 2004; Nalepa

et al., 2009). Phosphorus abatement programs started

in the 1970s have generally been successful at reversing the widespread eutrophication in the lower

Great Lakes and urbanized embayments of the upper

GL, but in localized areas, phosphorus loading is increasing again (SOLEC, 2009), and invasive mussels

may play a large role in altering P dynamics in the

nearshore zone of lakes with large dreissenid populations (Hecky et al., 2004). Some experimental work

has been done to examine the influence of zebra mussels on nutrient ratios (N:P) and in turn on phytoplankton species composition in the lakes (Bykova

et al., 2006). However, the impacts of changing carbon chemistry on species physiology and interactions

in the Great Lakes have not been considered previously, to our knowledge. Experiments to correctly diagnose and attribute the species-level effects of exposure to acidification alone and in combination with

other stressors would be most effectively conducted

in a microcosm (i.e., tank) setting.

Any experimental or observational work on lake

acidification impacts on organisms will take place in

the context of an ecosystem heavily altered by human

activities. In turn, anthropogenic climate change and

net invasion of the lake ecosystems by anthropogenic

CO2 are processes that are operating in the background of management and restoration efforts to address the impacts of invasive species, eutrophication,

and other direct stressors on the lake ecosystems.

Thus, effective long-term management and restoration plans should be evaluated in a framework that

explicitly considers the potential impacts of acidification and climate change on lake communities and efforts to restore them.

As an example, both dreissenid zebra mussels and

native unionid bivalves biosynthesize their shells of

aragonite, the more soluble of the two dominant

mineral forms of carbonate (Al-Aasm et al., 1998;

Checa, 2000). Based on lake average aragonite saturation states (Ωarag), observed dreissenid densities,

and known historical distributions of native unionids,

both species appear to be capable of biosynthesizing their shells in water with Ωarag values of 2.0–2.5,

but substantially lower dreissenid densities occur in

the lakes where the lowest aragonite saturations are

found (Tables 7.1 and 7.3). Native unionid bivalves

have decreased sharply in abundance or been extirpated in many areas of the Great Lakes since dreissenids colonized the Great Lakes, but reproducing

populations of burrowing unionids persist in some

nearshore environments (Bowers et al., 2005). Subsurface sediment environments typically have high

concentrations of porewater CO2 and correspondingly low carbonate mineral saturation states. Experimental manipulations in microcosm systems could

be performed to determine the physiological tolerances of both invasive and native bivalve species to

elevated CO2 and temperature conditions to determine whether conditions exist that may favor the native unionids over invasive dreissenids. If this were

found to be the case, efforts could be made to target refuge areas that would allow unionid populations

to persist within the Great Lakes while other restoration approaches are researched. Measurements of

mussel filtration rates, metabolism, and calcification

would also help establish the biological consequences

of changes in CO2 over time. As the previous generation of lake acidification studies taught us, it will

be important to conduct these studies of organis-
Chapter 7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan 115

mal metabolism, calcification, and physiological tolerances both in laboratory experimental manipulations as well as in the field under in situ conditions

to be able to carefully attribute causes and consequences (e.g., Stow et al., 1998).

Another suite of critical biological acidification

measurements would consist of the quantification

of the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on

phytoplankton species composition and productivity. Previous work on impacts of dreissenids on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios (e.g., Bykova et al., 2006;

Hecky et al., 2004), which exert important influence

on which phytoplanktonic species dominate primary

producer communities, should be linked with this

work to yield insights into the interacting effects of

acidification and invasive species effects on primary

producers. Experiments into physiological effects of

acidification on other critical members of the Great

Lakes ecosystem, such as native amphipods (Diporeia

spp.), forage fish species, and ecologically and economically important fish species (see box) should also

be developed and executed once experimental capacity is in place (i.e., a tank system in which it is possible

to manipulate and maintain CO2 levels and other parameters).

Ultimately, the insights gained through biological

monitoring and experimental manipulations will provide input parameters for regional biogeochemical

models and can help validate predictions of models

to assess species responses. In turn, outputs and predictions of biogeochemical models will be useful for

identifying population and community level effects

in forage fish that may be particularly sensitive to

changes in zooplankton and phytoplankton populations. Establishing long-term monitoring of indicator

species at locations identified to be most at risk from

acidification will provide inputs to population models

for forage and carnivorous fish. In addition to observations of changes in mussel calcification, filtration,

or metabolism, predicted or measured changes in fish

populations will inform decisions regarding fisheries

management, and other key mitigation and adaptation options.

7.3 Biogeochemical and Ecosystem

Models (Theme 3)

Task 7.3.1: Develop and test coupled physical/biogeochemical and food web models and

scenarios to address lake acidification effects on

each of the Great Lake ecosystems.

Modeling offers synergistic opportunities to complement monitoring and ecosystem response studies.

Acidification research in the open ocean has advanced tremendously over recent years because of

the strength of the synergy between observations and

models (e.g., Feely et al., 2004; Orr et al., 2005). Observations must be limited due to expense, and models offer a physically based platform within which observations can be scaled up to evaluate the bigger

picture. Models can also help to determine whether

observations of different quantities or taken at different locations or times can be considered consistent with each other given our current process understanding. They allow for hypothesis testing and prediction. Since they integrate knowledge from a range

of fields, models can also become invaluable tools

with which to integrate the diverse understanding of

many scientists.

Initially, relatively simple basin-averaged models

with carbon chemistry and highly simplified biological and biogeochemical processes will be developed

for each of the Great Lakes so that the first-order effects of acidification due to increasing atmospheric

pCO2 alone can be studied. With such models, historical effects such as the likely masking of acidification due to competing impacts by cultural eutrophication and invasive species can be studied. Future

projections under a range of scenarios can also be developed. Such models are computationally efficient

and can generate the initial basis for hypothesis testing and scenario development.

Spatially and temporally resolved models that couple physics, ecosystems, and carbon chemistry will

also be important. These models, once shown to perform well in comparison with observations (e.g., Stow

et al., 2009), will help us to understand the spatial and

temporal variability of the environment in which the

observations were made. They can also help us to understand what is most likely occurring in the system

at times and locations where we are not able to observe. For example, wintertime observations are limited. EPA cruises occur once each during spring and

summer on each lake. The lakes are dynamic during

these seasons and well-validated models are a rigorous platform that extends our ability to characterize

the full system. Furthermore, the lakes are large and

can only be sampled at relatively few locations and/or

times either by boat or mooring. Models help us to

understand variability across both space and time.
116 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

McKinley et al. (2010) use a coupled physicalecosystem-carbon model of Lake Superior to study

its carbon cycle. They show that high-frequency

moored pCO2 observations, similar to those proposed

here, and EPA survey data for pCO2 (calculated from

measured pH and alkalinity) are consistent with the

model, and thus with each other. They find strong

seasonal variability in the surface pCO2 of the lake

and estimate the trends in surface pCO2 over the last

decade. This is the type of model that can be entrained into this effort to improve our knowledge of

acidification and its impacts. Though ecosystem impacts of acidification in the Great Lakes have not yet

been studied, as this knowledge grows it can be incorporated into tested models so that larger-scale impacts can be considered.

In addition to coupled physical/biogeochemical

models, a variety of approaches has been taken to

model Great Lakes food webs and impacts of anthropogenic factors on the lakes’ ecological communities

(e.g., Kitchell et al., 2000; Krause et al., 2009; Ng et al.,

2008; Zhang et al., 2008). Adapting these existing

food web/ecological models to evaluate lake acidification scenarios will provide a useful tool for examining the potential for organismal impacts observed

through biological monitoring and experimental manipulation efforts to be scaled up to the whole ecosystem level. The results of acidification food web modeling will in turn provide input to bio-economic modeling efforts (Theme 4).

Models are, however, not the real world; they do

not always perform well. Fortunately, these failures

often reveal critical processes missing from the current model and identify directions for future improvement. Similarly, models can be used to assist in designing and refining observational programs by identifying locations with specific physical, biological or

chemical characteristics of interest.

Remote sensing also offers valuable potential for

dramatically improving our understanding of temporal and spatial variability in surface lake biogeochemisty that may be modified by acidification. However, reliable chlorophyll algorithms have not previously been available. Mouw and McKinley (2010)

show, for the first time, that MERIS data can be

used to retrieve surface chlorophyll over Lake Superior within reasonable error bounds. Yet, satellites

cannot see below the surface of the lakes. As we

have found in global oceanography, synergy between

satellite data and numerical models can drive forward

understanding of biogeochemistry, ecology, and their

changes with time.

Climate change is also affecting the Great Lakes.

Warming causes decreased ice cover which leads to

a positive feedback that results in faster warming

(Austin and Colman, 2007), and these changes have

been shown to modify winds over and currents in

Lake Superior (Desai et al., 2009). Fully resolved

physical-ecosystem-carbon models are needed to understand how the changing physical environment will

interact with acidification processes. For example,

what are the likely trends in stratification in the Great

Lakes? How will this modify the invasion of anthropogenic CO2? How will this modify primary productivity? What will effects of changes to the environment and species at lower trophic levels be on higher

trophic levels? Models are the best way to address

these questions.

7.4 Human Dimensions (Theme 4)

7.4.1 Bio-economic models

Task 7.4.1: Estimate anticipated changes to

ecosystem services as a consequence of lake

acidification and evaluate alternative management options.

The Great Lakes ecosystems support robust recreational and commercial fisheries, as well as a multibillion dollar tourism and outdoor recreation industry. Bio-economic models will be developed or

adapted for and applied to the Great Lakes region

to address how lake acidification impacts on ecosystem services may affect regional communities and

economies. Significant interaction among biogeochemical, food web, and bio-economic modeling effort is anticipated to facilitate development of ecosystem impact scenarios based on reasonable anthropogenic impact scenarios (i.e., combinations of factors, including acidification, eutrophication, and others). Economic implications of management decisions can be explored by propagating environmental

impact scenarios across the suite of modeling efforts.

7.4.2 Mitigation and adaptation strategies

Task 7.4.2: Test mitigation approaches under

laboratory and field conditions. Develop adaptation strategies.
Chapter 7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan 117

Information on the chemical changes in the lakes associated with atmospheric CO2 accumulation, along

with insights into the vulnerability of Great Lakes

species to acidification, will provide essential information for resource managers to formulate plans to

mitigate ecosystem impacts of acidification in combination with the myriad other environmental stressors

confronting the Great Lakes ecosystems. In particular, it will be important to consider lake acidification

interactions with the ecosystem effects of eutrophication, invasive species, and other anthropogenic impacts when developing mitigation approaches and

adaptation strategies.

Key decisions that will be influenced by the results

of research, monitoring, and modeling efforts described in this plan include options to control agricultural runoff, to address invasive species introductions

through ballast water, to manage fisheries, and to restore coastal habitats. These mitigation and adaptation measures are already being considered to restore

the ecosystem of the Great Lakes. Determining the

relationships between ecosystem responses to acidification and reductions in nutrients, control of invasive species, altering fisheries management options,

and restoring fish habitat will inform decision-making

and allow communities to establish priorities among

their adaptation and mitigation options. Models can

be tested to some extent through the biogeochemical and food web modeling activities described in

Theme 3, but it will be important to test mitigation

approaches under laboratory and field conditions as

well.

Assessments of socioeconomic vulnerability will be

conducted at regional to local scales through a partnership between social scientists, modelers, and other

stakeholders. Projected socioeconomic impacts of

lost ecosystem services will inform adaptive management strategies, as well as the development of education and outreach programs. Outcomes of acidification impact assessments will be contributed to

regional decision-support processes through existing

channels to the extent possible (e.g., the biennial

State of the Lake Ecosystem Conference [SOLEC] forum described in section 7.7).

7.5 Synthesis of Data and

Information Products

(Theme 5)

Task 7.5.1: Develop data and information tools

for evaluating the consequences of lake acidification and potential management actions to facilitate more effective management.

Data produced through the observational efforts

outlined in this plan can likely be accommodated

within data management programs either existing

at the EPA or proposed in Chapter 1. Data generated from water column carbon analyses during EPA cruises would be complementary to the

data already housed in the EPA Great Lakes Environmental Database (http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/

monitoring/data_proj/glenda). In addition, it

would also be useful to mirror the Great Lakes

acidification survey data sets in any national ocean

acidification data management system that is developed. A partnership between NOAA and EPA

to manage GL acidification data would thus likely

be the most logical and efficient strategy for managing the carbon data yielded through semi-annual

cruises. The moored and underway carbon data

resulting from the observational efforts outlined in

Theme 1 would probably more easily be accommodated through existing data repositories (e.g., the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center’s Ocean

CO2 repository: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/

home.html) and/or any national ocean acidification

information center that may be developed under the

auspices of NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program (see

Chapter 1).

Information products to be derived from water

chemistry and biological research and monitoring activities include an improved understanding of the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic processes to observed trends in Great Lakes biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem health. Information products available as outcomes of acidification observation and modeling efforts will include robust estimates of CO2 uptake and storage in the lakes, as well

as improved ability to quantify contributions of acidification versus eutrophication, invasive species, climate change, and other anthropogenic stressors.
118 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan

7.6 Engagement Strategy (Theme 6)

Task 7.6.1: Develop and implement coordination, education, and outreach schemes to

communicate the science and ecosystem consequences of ocean acidification to the public and

stakeholder communities and to facilitate effective communication among regional collaborators.

During the first year of the proposed research effort, we suggest that the principal investigators from

NOAA, EPA, and other partner institutions convene a

series of workshops, with the help of Great Lakes regional Sea Grant offices. The purpose of these initial

meetings would be to gather stakeholders together

to refine and develop the lake acidification research,

monitoring, and preliminary adaptation plans with

input from the broader GL community and to initiate

the development of strong collaborative partnerships.

Stakeholders to be invited would include representatives of regional, federal, Canadian, and binational

organizations with research and monitoring interests

in the Great Lakes, including the International Joint

Commission, Environment Canada, NOAA National

Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) Thunder

Bay National Marine Sanctuary, Great Lakes Observing System (a NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System Regional Association), and state resource management agencies; academic institutions with GL research programs from bordering states and provinces;

and other regional groups to be identified through regional Sea Grant partners. Important outcomes of

this kick-off workshop would be the initiation of research partnerships between biological and chemical

monitoring teams, as well as between observational

and modeling teams to be involved in Great Lakes

acidification efforts. In addition, the workshop will

provide an opportunity to start developing a network

of partners doing research in nearshore GL environments so that open-lake observations and trends can

be compared with nearshore patterns. For example,

the Old Woman Creek NERR on the Lake Erie shore

measures pH and alkalinity, and another NERR will

be established at the western end of Lake Superior

in 2010. A kick-off workshop would also provide a

valuable venue for starting the process of standardizing methodology for making the highest quality carbon chemistry measurements across agency and academic research groups.

After GL acidification research is underway, regular meetings would facilitate dissemination of key

results and development of well-coordinated plans

for subsequent phases of research and monitoring

throughout the Great Lakes community. The U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency and Environment

Canada convene a biennial State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conference (SOLEC) to assess the current status

of the Great Lakes ecosystems using accepted indicators and to facilitate communication, management,

and decision-making among local, regional, and international stakeholder groups. Ideally it would be

possible to incorporate the lake acidification research

and monitoring activities into the SOLEC assessment

and reporting framework.

Education and public outreach materials and activities will be developed in subsequent years, depending on initial findings from observational and modeling efforts. These efforts would also be facilitated

through participation in the SOLEC framework. The

NOAA Office of Education, the National Sea Grant

Program, and the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries can play integral roles in meeting these mandates

by developing an increased awareness of the causes

and potential effects of lake acidification on the Great

Lakes ecosystems. The Thunder Bay National Marine

Sanctuary can also serve as a sentinel site, not only

for research and monitoring, but also as a place where

communities can go to learn about the possible effects of acidification on the lakes.

To inform monitoring and adaptation needs, a series of workshops would be initiated with stakeholders focused on water quality management (e.g., those

involved in controlling non-point source pollution

and invasive species), fisheries managers, commercial

and recreational fishing groups, and other interested

community stakeholders. The purpose of these workshops would be to ensure that research and monitoring efforts consider the needs of those making decisions about the consequences and options for addressing acidification of the lakes.

7.7 Collaborators

7.7.1 Interagency and international

cooperation

The Great Lakes occupy a binational, multistate

geopolitical landscape. As such, interagency and intergovernmental cooperation for effective ecosystem

and resource management are imperative. The Great

Lakes has a tremendous capacity for intergovernmental cooperation and including those from academia
Chapter 7. Great Lakes Region Acidification Research Plan 119

Great Lakes Region Collaborators

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

EPA Great Lakes National Program Office

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary

National Estuarine Research Reserves

Great Lakes Region Sea Grant Offices

NOAA’s Mussel Watch

Great Lakes Observing System

University of Wisconsin

University of Minnesota

Michigan Technological University

Regional state natural resource/environmental protection

agencies

Environment Canada

International Joint Commission

and civil society. In 1972, the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between the United States and Canada

established a logistical and advisory board framework

under the International Joint Commission (IJC) for

binational cooperation “to restore and maintain the

chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem.” In addition,

the United States and Canada together have convened

a Binational Executive Committee (BEC) to oversee

implementation of the Great Lakes Water Quality

Agreement (GLWQA). Within this structure, the State

of the Lake Ecosystem Conference has been a mechanism for the joint development of scientific indicators and as a venue for reporting on the results of scientific research pertaining to the Great Lakes ecosystem. As outlined in the GLWQA, the Clean Water Act,

and Water Resource Development Act, the development and implementation of Lakewide Management

Plans for each lake is ongoing under the guidance

of BEC. These plans are science-based management

documents for the open waters of the Great Lakes,

but also include information on nearshore condition.

The Great Lakes Regional Collaboration and, most recently, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, with the

release of its multi-agency Great Lakes Action Plan,

are both U.S.-specific initiatives to strategically invest

in restoration, science, and monitoring. These existing policy initiatives, legal mechanisms, and organizations focus on emerging issues and provide a context in which lake acidification and climate change effects on the Great Lakes ecosystem can be addressed.

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Contributors

National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

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Mark Eakin Mark.Eakin@noaa.gov

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Galen McKinley gamckinley@wisc.edu
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