1

Human health risk assessment 

methods for PV

Part 1: Fire risks

Report IEA-PVPS T12-xx:2018
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Human health risk assessment methods for PV

IEA PVPS Task 12, Subtask 3 Report

IEA-PVPS T12-xx:2018

October 2018

ISBN 978-3-906042-78-7

Authors:

Parikhit Sinha, Garvin Heath, Andreas Wade, Keiichi Komoto

Citation: P. Sinha, G. Heath, A. Wade, K. Komoto, 2018, Human health risk assessment 

methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks, International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 12, Report 

T12-xx:2018. 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................1

Foreword ...........................................................................................................................................3

1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................................5

2. Overview ....................................................................................................................................6

3. Mass Emission Rates ...................................................................................................................8

4. Dispersion Modeling..................................................................................................................10

5. Persistence Factors ...................................................................................................................13

6. Exposure Point Concentrations ..................................................................................................13

7. Risk Characterization .................................................................................................................22

7.1 Acute Noncancer Hazards .....................................................................................................22

7.2 Incremental Cancer Risks ......................................................................................................25

8 Uncertainties ............................................................................................................................27

8.1 Modeling Approach ..............................................................................................................27

8.2 Other Topics.........................................................................................................................28

8.3 Applicability .........................................................................................................................29

9. Evaluation of Potential Transport to Soil and Groundwater..........................................................30

10. Summary .............................................................................................................................34

References.......................................................................................................................................35

A1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................37

A2. Estimation of Exposure Point Concentrations in Soil and Groundwater....................................38

A2.1 Concentration in Soil.........................................................................................................38

A2.1.1 Concentration in Vadose Soil Water...........................................................................38

A2.1.2 Concentration in Impacted Soil..................................................................................39

A2.1.3 Qualitative Evaluation of Airborne Deposition ............................................................40

A2.2 Concentration in Impacted Groundwater...........................................................................40

A3. Comparison of Exposure Point Concentrations to Risk-based Screening Levels.........................45

A4. Uncertainties........................................................................................................................46
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A4.1 Concentration in Vadose Soil Water ................................................................................46

A4.2 Source Area for Transport to Soil and Groundwater........................................................47

A5. Summary .............................................................................................................................47

A6. References...........................................................................................................................48

List of Tables

Table 1. Input factors for Calculation calculation of mass emission rate (Eq. 1)

Table 2. Calculation of Heat Release Rates applicable to all PV module types

Table 3. Summary of SCREEN3 Input Data and Results 

Table 4. Summary of Exposure Point Concentrations in Air – Small Building Fire

Table 5. Summary of Exposure Point Concentrations in Air – Medium Building Fire

Table 6. Summary of Exposure Point Concentrations in Air – Large Building Fire

Table 7. Potential Inhalation Cancer Risk 

Table A-1. Calculation of Concentrations in Soil and Groundwater

Table A-2. Comparison of Exposure Point Concentrations to Risk-based Screening Levels [8]

List of Figures

Figure 1. Maximum ground-level ambient air Pb concentration and PAC-2 acute exposure 

screening level [16] for small, medium, and large building fires with rooftop c-Si PV.

Figure 2. Maximum ground-level ambient air Cd concentration and AEGL-2 acute exposure 

screening level [15] for small, medium, and large building fires with rooftop CdTe PV.

Figure 3. Maximum ground-level ambient air Pb concentration and PAC-2 acute exposure 

screening level [16] for small, medium, and large building fires with rooftop CIS PV.

Figure 4. Exposure point concentration in soil in comparison to risk-based soil screening level [30]

for rooftop c-Si PV emissions of Pb to fire water for small, medium, and large building 

fires.

Figure 5. Exposure point concentration in groundwater in comparison to risk-based groundwater 

screening level and maximum contaminant level [30] for rooftop c-Si PV emissions of Pb 

to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires.

Figure 6. Exposure point concentration in soil in comparison to risk-based soil screening level [30]

for rooftop CdTe PV emissions of Cd to fire water for small, medium, and large building 

fires.

Figure 7. Exposure point concentration in groundwater in comparison to risk-based groundwater 

screening level and maximum contaminant level [30] for rooftop CdTe PV emissions of 

Cd to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires.
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Figure 8. Exposure point concentration in soil in comparison to risk-based soil screening level [30]

for rooftop CIS PV emissions of Pb to fire water for small, medium, and large building 

fires.

Figure 9. Exposure point concentration in groundwater in comparison to risk-based groundwater 

screening level and maximum contaminant level [30] for rooftop CIS PV emissions of Pb 

to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires.

List of Appendices

Appendix A. Evaluation of Potential Impacts to Soil and Groundwater 

List of Units

cal/s – calories per second

g – grams

g/s – grams per second

hr – hour

kg/L – kilograms per liter

kJ/s – kilojoules per second

kW – kilowatts 

L – liters

L/kg – liters per kilogram

m – meter

m/s – meters per second

m2 – square meters

mg – milligrams

mg/L – milligrams per liter

mg/kg – milligrams per kilogram

μg/m3 – micrograms per cubic meter
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Executive Summary

The photovoltaic (PV) industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years due in part to the development 

of public policies to address climate change and energy security. Some industry stakeholders have 

expressed concerns regarding potential human inhalation exposure to hazardous materials should a PV 

module array be exposed to fire, particularly in a residential or commercial rooftop application. To evaluate 

these concerns, fire hazard analysis methods are presented that can estimate emissions that may occur 

when PV modules (hereafter mostly referred to simply as “modules”) are exposed to fire, estimate the 

associated chemical concentrations in ambient air downwind from the fire, and finally compare these 

exposure-point concentrations to health-protective screening levels.

Specifically, this report presents an analysis of potential human health impacts associated with chemical 

release from modules during a building fire for three PV technologies, focusing on airborne release of the 

highest-prioritized chemical element for each: Pb content in crystalline-silicon (c-Si) modules, Cd content in 

thin film cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, and Se content in thin film copper indium selenide (CIS)

modules. The intent of this analysis is to demonstrate the application of the proposed methods for 

modules exposed to fire in a quantitative yet illustrative manner. In particular, this report quantifies what 

are expected to be the worst-case potential health impacts over a wide range of possible conditions, 

including building/fire size, downwind receptor location, exposure duration, and meteorological conditions, 

utilizing a Gaussian plume modeling approach that is typically used in regulatory contexts. 

The proposed method follows a screening-level approach, with the intent of developing order of 

magnitude-level estimates of potential risk after applying health-protective assumptions. Three scenarios 

are considered: a small, medium, and large building fire. A small building fire may involve fewer modules 

and thus a lower mass of chemical released than a medium or large building fire. However, as compared to 

a large building fire, a small building fire may produce less atmospheric dispersion of the released chemical

and thus higher air pollutant concentrations, due to lower heat release. To evaluate these competing 

effects, three sizes of module array/building fire are analyzed here: a “small” building with module area of 

100 m2, a “medium” building with module area of 2,500 m2, and a “large” building with module area of 

10,000 m2. 

The emissions from c-Si, CdTe, and CIS PV modules under each of the three sizes of fire conditions are 

estimated on the basis of the total mass of chemical contained in the modules and release-efficiency data 

measured by BMWi, TÜV Rheinland, and Fraunhofer ISE, who together conducted a study on different PV 

technologies in which modules were subjected to flames from the underside of the module by means of a 

gas burner. In that study, measured concentrations in the flue gas, and in the water used to extinguish the 

fire, were used to estimate release-efficiency of specific chemical constituents to air and water, 

respectively. 

The chemical concentrations in ambient air resulting from release from fire-exposed modules are estimated 

using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Gaussian plume dispersion model 

SCREEN3. Small, medium, and large building fires are all evaluated to determine worst-case potential 

impacts. Use of the SCREEN3 model for this purpose is consistent with USEPA guidance. The modeling 

approach is designed to quantify worst-case potential impacts at any receptor location downwind from the 

edge of the burning building across a range of potential fire scenarios. Building downwash model options in 

SCREEN3 are employed. For each type of building fire, worst-case concentrations are estimated for 

averaging times of 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, and 8 hours, corresponding to potential 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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exposure times under different ground-level exposure scenarios (neighborhood and general public) at 

downwind distances ranging from 5 to 1,000 m for a small building fire and 25 to 10,000 m for a medium or 

large building fire. 

The potential health effects associated with short-term (acute) inhalation exposures are evaluated through 

a comparison of predicted exposure-point concentrations with Acute Exposure Guidelines (AEGL) published 

by the USEPA and Protective Action Criteria (PAC) published by the United States Department of Energy 

(USDOE). AEGL screening values are preferentially used when available based on more extensive review of 

animal and human studies, but since AEGLs are not set for all chemicals, PAC screening values can fill gaps. 

The AEGL and PAC represent threshold exposure limits for the general public and are applicable to acute

exposure periods ranging from 10 minutes to 8 hours. Three levels of screening values (AEGL-1/PAC-1, 

AEGL-2/PAC-2, and AEGL-3/PAC-3) are in increasing order of severity of effects, with the AEGL-2 or PAC-2 

criteria used by USEPA or USDOE to determine whether there is a disabling risk to potential receptors. Our 

modeling results suggest that for the small, medium, and large building fires considered, potential Pb, Cd,

and Se concentrations from c-Si, CdTe, and CIS PV, respectively are below AEGL-2/PAC-2 thresholds, and 

also below AEGL-1/PAC-1 and AEGL-3/PAC-3 thresholds, for all averaging times (10 minutes to 8 hours). 

The potential incremental cancer risk associated with one-time, acute inhalation exposure (for 10 minute 

averaging time which produces the highest product of concentration and duration) is quantified in 

accordance with USEPA inhalation risk assessment methodology. This approach is conservative; it is 

uncertain whether short-term exposures as a result of a fire would increase an individual’s lifetime 

probability of developing cancer, as cancer studies are based on long-term exposures. We find that under 

the examined scenarios, the incremental cancer risks associated with inhalation of Pb and Cd potentially 

released from photovoltaic modules in small, medium, and large building fires are less than the 1×10-6 (one 

in a million), which is typically considered to be a negligible risk level by regulatory agencies, such as the 

USEPA. Incremental cancer risks associated with inhalation of Se potentially released from photovoltaic 

modules are not evaluated because Se is not classified as a carcinogen.

Potential indirect impacts associated with each fire scenario are also considered. Extinguishing the fire with 

water may result in chemical transport to soil and/or groundwater. The water-borne transport pathway has

been evaluated, with exposure-point concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Se for c-Si, CdTe, and CIS PV, 

respectively, below risk-based screening levels and maximum contaminant levels from USEPA (Appendix A).

In this report, only three chemicals (Pb, Cd, Se) have been used to demonstrate the human health risk 

assessment methodology for three types of PV modules exposed to fire, whereas other environmentally 

sensitive elements (e.g., In, Ag, Cu, Sn, Ni) are used in commercial PV modules and new PV technologies 

that (e.g., perovskite) are emerging. Thus the results presented here do not represent a complete human 

health risk assessment for fire-exposed modules, although the results are suggestive of low risk for the 

prioritized chemicals examined. The screening-level methods employed in this report can be used to assess 

potential health risks from other chemicals of potential concern and other PV technologies to establish a 

more complete set of results for chemicals of potential concern. Screening-level human health risk 

assessment has been conducted for potential ground-level receptors (neighborhood and general public), 

but not for potential occupational exposures to firefighters, which may be evaluated separately using 

occupational health screening values and accounting for occupational exposure factors. Potential ecological 

risks have also not been evaluated in this report. Screening-level methods such as used here are meant to 

identify potential health risk scenarios that are greater than defined thresholds and may warrant further

analysis.
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Foreword

The IEA PVPS is one of the collaborative R&D Agreements established within the IEA, and was established in 

1993. The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee composed of representatives from each 

participating country and/or organisation, while the management of individual research projects (Tasks) is 

the responsibility of Operating Agents. The programme deals with the relevant applications of photovoltaics, 

both for on-grid and off-grid markets. It operates in a task-shared mode whereby member countries and/or 

organisations contribute with their experts to the different Tasks. The co-operation deals with both technical 

and non-technical issues relevant to a wide-spread use of photovoltaics in these different market segments. 

The mission of the IEA PVPS programme is: “To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate 

the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” The 

underlying assumption is that the market for PV systems is rapidly expanding to significant penetrations in 

grid-connected markets in an increasing number of countries, connected to both the distribution network 

and the central transmission network. At the same time, the market is gradually shifting from a policy to a 

business driven approach.

Task 12 aims at fostering international collaboration in safety and sustainability that are crucial for assuring 

that PV grows to levels enabling it to make a major contribution to the needs of the member countries and 

the world.

The overall objectives of Task 12 are to:

1. quantify the environmental profile of PV electricity, serving to improve the sustainability of the supply

chain and to compare it with the environmental profile of electricity produced with other energy technologies;

2. help improve waste management of PV in collection and recycling, including tracking legislative

developments as well as supporting development of technical standards;

3. distinguish and address actual and perceived issues associated with the EH&S, social and socioeconomic aspects of PV technology that are important for market growth; and

4. disseminate the results of the EH&S analyses to stakeholders, policy-makers, and the general public.

The first objective is served with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) that describes energy, material and emission 

flows in all stages of the life cycle of PV, as well as human health risk assessment. 

The second objective is accomplished by proactive research and support of industry-wide activities (e.g., input 

to Industry Associations, like SolarPower Europe or Industry standardization activities to develop and help 

implementing voluntary or binding policies – like EU WEEE and the Product Environmental Footprint Category 

Rules for photovoltaics in Europe and the development of a Sustainability Leadership Standard for 

Photovoltaic Modules (NSF 457).

The third objective is addressed by advocating best sustainability practices throughout the solar value chain, 

exploring and evaluating frameworks and approaches for the environmental, social and socio-economic 

assessment of the manufacturing, installation and deployment of PV technologies and thus assisting the 

collective action of PV companies in this area. 
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The fourth objective is accomplished by presentations to broad audiences, peer review articles, reports and 

fact sheets, and assisting industry associations and the media in the dissemination of the information.

Task 12 was initiated by Brookhaven National Laboratory under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy 

and is now operated jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Solar Power Europe. 

Support from DOE and Solar Power Europe are gratefully acknowledged. Further information on the activities 

and results of the Task can be found at: http://www.iea-pvps.org.

This report addresses the third objective above by describing methods to assess potential health impacts

should a PV module be exposed to fire. This report is part 1 of a three-part series on human health risk 

assessment methods for PV. Part 2 will address potential health risks resulting from module breakage and 

Part 3 will address potential health risks resulting from module disposal. A related report addressing 

firefighter safety can be found at the IEA PVPS web site: “Photovoltaics and Firefighters’ Operations: Best 

Practices in Selected Countries.” 
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1. Introduction

Potential human health effects related to smoke from building fires include asphyxiation (due to hypoxia 

from exposure to carbon monoxide, hydrogen cyanide, or oxygen-depleted air) and respiratory effects 

(due to irritants such as halogen acids, partially oxidized organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulfur 

dioxide, and aerosols) [1]. In the case of building fires involving PV modules, potentially there are 

additional hazards from off-gassing of fire-affected modules. In this report, methods are presented to 

estimate potential human health impacts for ground-level receptors downwind of a building fire 

involving rooftop PV modules. For further background on potential hazards to firefighters, mitigation 

measures, and best practices for fire prevention, readers are encouraged to consult a recent report by

the International Energy Agency [2]. 

Fire events involving PV modules are relatively rare. For example in Germany, a total of 430 fire events 

out of 1.3 million PV installations had been reported as of 2013 [3]. Some industry stakeholders have 

expressed concerns regarding potential exposures to hazardous materials should a PV array be exposed 

to fire, particularly in a residential or commercial rooftop application. To evaluate these concerns, 

human health risk assessment methods are presented herein to estimate emissions that may occur 

when PV modules are exposed to fire, estimate the associated chemical concentrations in ambient air 

downwind from the fire, and compare these exposure point concentrations to risk-based screening 

levels. 

A paradigm for human health risk assessment was first developed by the U.S. National Academy of 

Sciences and consists of four main steps of: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure 

analysis, and risk characterization [4]. With regard to hazard identification, while a variety of chemicals 

(asphyxiant, corrosive, irritating, flammable or explosive, hazardous) are used in the manufacturing of 

PV modules [5], the highest-prioritized chemical element from three PV technologies are evaluated in 

this report as illustrative examples of the application of the methods developed herein. Dose-response 

assessment is incorporated in the use of health screening values for non-cancer hazards (section 7.1)

and inhalation unit risk factors for cancer risks (section 7.2). Exposure analysis includes the 

characterization of chemical emissions (section 3) and environmental fate of emissions (sections 4-6). 

Risk characterization and associated uncertainties are covered in sections 7-8. 

Screening-level human health risk assessment methods, based on the above paradigm but specific to PV,

have been outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission [5] and Bavarian Environmental 

Protection Agency [6], utilizing VDI Guideline 3783 Sheet I [7]. These PV-specific methods are followed 

and expanded upon in this report using example cases of evaluating potential human health risks from a 

single, prioritized chemical from each of three PV technologies: Pb content in crystalline-silicon (c-Si) PV, 

Cd content in thin film cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV, and Se content in thin film copper indium selenide 

(CIS) PV. In addition to these metals, other potential chemicals of concern are emissions of carbon 

monoxide (CO), formaldehyde (CH2O), and hydrogen fluoride (HF) from combustion of organic PV 

module materials (encapsulant and backsheet) [3]. While the latter emissions are not considered here, 

they could be evaluated with the same methodology as presented for Pb, Cd, and Se.

Methods are presented for rooftop PV systems due to the higher potential fire temperatures and 

proximity to potential receptors associated with building fires compared with ground mount PV systems 

[8][9]. Potential indirect impacts associated with the fire scenario have also been considered. 

Extinguishing the fire with water may result in transport of particulates to soil and/or groundwater. This 
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water-borne transport pathway is considered via a screening level analysis in Appendix A, whose results 

are summarized in section 9 below. 

2. Overview 

The objective of this screening-level fire risk assessment is to illustratively demonstrate methods for 

assessing reasonable worst-case potential inhalation impacts associated with release of prioritized 

hazardous substances from modules during a fire, over a range of potential conditions, identified in the 

bullets below. In selecting the exposure scenarios and key parameters, the analysis is intended to be 

conservative, with the overall objective of not underestimating the potential emissions that could result 

from a fire affecting rooftop-mounted PV modules on buildings of three sizes: small, medium, and large. 

• Module array size. A small building fire may involve fewer PV modules and thus a lower mass 

released, but may produce less atmospheric dispersion of the released mass and thus higher 

concentrations in the air, due to lower heat release, compared to a larger building fire. To 

evaluate these competing effects, three sizes of module array/building fire are analyzed here: a 

“small” building with module area of 100 m2, a “medium” building with module area of 

2,500 m2

, and a “large” building with module area of 10,000 m2. 

• Dispersion modeling approach. In this analysis, the dispersion of emissions from a building fire 

is modeled using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Gaussian plume 

dispersion model, SCREEN3, with “flare” (point-source combustion) source type. 

• Duration of exposure event. The shorter the period over which the fire emissions are assumed 

to occur, the higher the predicted worst-case concentration in ambient air. This effect is caused 

by two factors. First, it is conservatively assumed that all of the emissions from modules in a fire

are released during the exposure period, whereas in actuality, the emissions may take longer to 

occur. Consequently, as the exposure period decreases, the assumed emission rate increases, 

given a fixed mass of emissions. Second, the predicted concentrations in ambient air resulting 

from these emissions increase as the exposure time decreases, because the expected 

atmospheric dispersion of emissions increases with time. On the other hand, the concentration 

to which a person would need to be exposed before experiencing adverse acute health effects 

also increases with decreasing exposure time, due to a shorter duration of exposure. To 

account for this effect, different acute regulatory concentration levels of concern have been 

established for the following exposure periods: 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, and 8 

hours. Thus, as the exposure time decreases, both the predicted concentration and the riskbased concentration of concern (i.e., the screening level) increase. Yet they vary at different 

rates, which means that determining the most conservative acute regulatory level of concern is 

not possible without evaluating a range of exposure times. Accordingly, all of the 

aforementioned exposure periods are considered in this methodology. 

• Meteorological conditions. The downfield dispersion of emissions from a fire are strongly 

influenced by meteorological conditions. In this analysis, a variety of meteorological conditions 

(e.g., combinations of wind speed and atmospheric stability) are considered, to identify worstcase potential impacts. 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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• Building downwash. Air movement over a building can generate eddies on the downwind side 

of the building that draw near-building plumes downward – this phenomenon is known as 

building downwash. Building downwash is a function of building dimensions, plume release 

height, plume rise, wind speed, and plume proximity to the building. The evaluation of potential 

building downwash effects including cavity recirculation and building wake effects has been 

incorporated into this methodology. 

This fire hazard analysis quantifies worst-case potential impacts over a wide range of possible 

conditions. As described in detail in Sections 3 through 7, the analysis is comprised of the following 

sequential steps. 

• Section 3 - The input factors for calculation of mass emission rate (g/s) from the building fire are

determined, based on the amount of material present in the module array and the release 

efficiency from modules in a building fire [3]. The heat release rate from the fire (cal/s) is also 

estimated on the basis of the building/array size. As noted above, three sizes of building/array 

are evaluated. 

• Section 4 - The SCREEN3 model is run to simulate the downfield dispersion of emissions from 

each building fire. The model is run with a unit source strength (i.e., mass emission rate) of 

1 g/s. The model output parameter of interest is the highest predicted 1-hour average 

concentration (μg/m3 per g/s) at any distance downwind and at a receptor height of 1 m above 

the ground surface [6]. This modeled concentration can be considered to be normalized by the 

emission rate, and is so named “normalized concentration” for the purposes of this report. 

These 1-hour average concentrations are related to other averaging times (10 mins to 8 hrs) 

using persistence factors, as described in Section 5.

• Section 5 - SCREEN3 only estimates the maximum 1-hour average concentration – frequently, as 

is the case here, one would like to know the maximum concentration associated with a different 

averaging time. As the averaging time changes, the degree of dispersion affecting the estimated 

pollutant concentration also changes. The effect of this change in dispersion on estimated 

concentration has been summarized in a series of empirical persistence factors developed by 

the USEPA that relate the concentration estimated using one averaging time to the 

concentration predicted using a different averaging time [12][13]. Accordingly, persistence 

factors are applied to the predicted worst-case 1-hour normalized concentration, to estimate 

worst-case normalized concentrations in air over other time periods of interest. 

• Section 6 - The worst-cased modeled normalized concentrations are combined with the 

estimated mass emission rate to calculate worst-case concentrations in ambient air (μg/m3) over 

the averaging time (also referred to as “exposure period” in this study). 

• Section 7 - Finally, the potential for short-term exposures that could occur as a result of an 

accidental fire to result in adverse health effects to sensitive individuals within a population is 

evaluated in this screening-level fire hazard analysis. Potential adverse health effects are 

evaluated in two categories, in accordance with USEPA inhalation risk assessment methodology 

[14]: acute non-cancer health effects, and carcinogenic health effects. 

◦ Section 7.1 - The potential for acute non-cancer health effects are evaluated by comparing 

worst-case concentrations in ambient air to Acute Exposure Guidelines (AEGLs) published by 

USEPA [15] and to Protective Action Criteria (PAC) published by USDOE [16], where AEGLs

are not available.
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◦ Section 7.2 - The potential for one-time, acute exposures to result in an increased 

probability of developing cancer over the course of a lifetime is estimated using USEPA risk 

assessment methodology [14], although it is important to note that there is significant 

uncertainty as to whether a one-time acute exposure could actually ever result in an 

increased risk of developing cancer. USEPA cancer risk assessment guidance is based on an 

assumption that exposure occurs over a chronic (long-term) period. Nonetheless, as a 

conservative screen, the long-term chronic cancer risk assessment methodology 

recommended by USEPA is used here to estimate the potential forincreased probability of 

developing cancer as a result of an acute, one-time exposure that could occur from an 

accidental fire. 

These steps are described in more detail in Sections 3 through 7. A discussion of the uncertainties in this 

evaluation is provided in Section 8. 

3. Mass Emission Rates 

Researchers have attempted to quantify the mass emissions of hazardous materials that could be 

released from modules during a fire by conducting fire experiments on modules or pieces of modules. 

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) measured Cd emissions from CdTe PV module pieces in a tube 

furnace [8], while Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment and Institut National de l'Environment 

Industriel et des Risques (CSTB/INERIS) and Fraunhofer Informationszentrum Raum und Bau and 

Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (Fraunhofer IRB/BAM) utilized fire flames applied to 

PV modules with heat flux measured by calorimetry [10][11]. Both CSTB/INERIS and Fraunhofer 

IRB/BAM measured emissions of common substances in smoke such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen 

oxides, volatile organic compounds, and halogen acids. In addition, Fraunhofer IRB/BAM measured 

metal emissions from CdTe and CIGS PV modules. The most recent and comprehensive contribution to 

the investigation of emissions in case of fire involving PV modules was undertaken by TÜV Rheinland

and Fraunhofer ISE [3] funded by the German Bundesministerium fuer Wirtschraft und Technologie 

(BMWi). In this study, fire tests were applied to all major commercial PV technologies (crystalline Si, 

CdTe, and CIS modules) in the Fire Research Laboratories of CURRENTA in June 2014, and the release of 

hazardous substances to the air from the burning of PV modules and to water from extinguishing the 

burning PV modules was characterized. For metals, emissions can be in the form of the metal and/or its 

oxide, but test results only present the metal content.

The modules mounted on a tilted structure (23 ̊), were exposed to fire flames from the underside by 

means of a gas burner to simulate a potential rooftop fire scenario. The modules were exposed to fire 

intensities of 25 and 150 kW (25 and 150 kJ/s), in order to simulate hazardous substance release under 

different thermal conditions. In addition, a third experiment was conducted using a 150 kW (150 kJ/s) 

gas burner, in which fire was extinguished after 6 to 7 minutes using 20 liters of water over a period of 

45 s. In all the cases, the concentration of hazardous substances present in the flue gas and the fire 

residues was analyzed. In the case where water was used to extinguish the fire, concentrations of these 

substances in the water after extinguishing the fire were also analyzed. The CURRENTA results from the 

150 kW burner with water spray test are used in this report because they provide data for both 

emissions to air and water. For emissions of Pb from c-Si PV modules and Cd from CdTe PV modules, 

total mass of emissions to air were higher than emissions to water, but for Se from CIS PV modules, the 

total mass of emissions to air and water were comparable. 
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According to the data provided in the CURRENTAstudy of emissions to air of 29 mg Cd per CdTe PV 

module and based on 6 g of total Cd content per module (Table 1), the percentage of Cd emissions to air 

is 0.5%, which is consistent with earlier results from BNL of 0.5% [8]. For reference, the maximum mass 

of Cd emitted from a CdTe PV module in the Fraunhofer IRB/BAM study was 12 mg [11], comparable to 

and lower than the CURRENTA study. The percentage of Pb emissions to air from c-Si PV modules in the 

CURRENTA study is 4.6% based on emissions to air of 600 mg Pb per c-Si PV module in the CURRENTA 

study and based on 13 g of total Pb content per module (Table 1). The percentage of Se emissions to air 

from CIS PV modules is 0.1% based on emissions to air of 4.8 mg Se per CIS PV module in the CURRENTA 

study and based on 5 g of Se content per module (Table 1). For reference, the maximum mass of Se 

emitted from a CIGS PV module in the Fraunhofer IRB/BAM study was 6 mg [11], similar to the 

CURRENTA study. Emissions are modeled from a “small” fire with rooftop area (and module area) of 

100 m2, a “medium” building fire with rooftop and module area of 2,500 m2, and a “large” building fire 

with rooftop and module area of 10,000 m2 (Table 1). While the rooftop area is assumed to be 

completely covered with PV modules, in actuality, the roof may be only partially covered. The 

assumptions in Table 1 can be adjusted for site-specific analysis. 

Table 1. Input factors for calculation of mass emission rate (Eq. 1)

Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

c-Si PV

Mass of Pb 

content per 

module (M)

13 13 13 g/module Based on 60 

cell c-Si PV 

module* Module width 1.00 1.00 1.00 m

Module length 1.60 1.60 1.60 m

Module area 1.6 1.6 1.6 m2

Rooftop width 10 50 100 m

Assumption Rooftop length 10 50 100 m

Rooftop area 100 2,500 10,000 m2

Number of 

modules on 

rooftop (N)

63 1,563 6,250 module Rooftop area ÷ 

Module area

Release 

efficiency in flue 

gas (RE)

4.6% 4.6% 4.6% – Based on [3], 

see text

CdTe PV

Mass of Cd 

content per 

module (M)

6 6 6 g/module

[17]

Module width 0.60 0.60 0.60 m

Module length 1.20 1.20 1.20 m
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

Module area 0.72 0.72 0.72 m2

Rooftop width 10 50 100 m

Assumption Rooftop length 10 50 100 m

Rooftop area 100 2,500 10,000 m2

Number of 

modules on 

rooftop (N)

139 3,472 13,889 module Rooftop area ÷ 

Module area

Release 

efficiency in flue 

gas (RE)

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% – Based on [3],

see text

CIS PV

Mass of Se

content per 

module (M)

5 5 5 g/module [18]

Module width 1.00 1.00 1.00 m assumed equal 

to c-Si PV

modules size Module length 1.20 1.20 1.20 m

Module area 1.2 1.2 1.2 m2

Rooftop width 10 50 100 m

Assumption Rooftop length 10 50 100 m

Rooftop area 100 2,500 10,000 m2

Number of 

modules on 

rooftop (N)

83 2,083 8,333 module Rooftop area ÷ 

Module area

Release 

efficiency in flue 

gas (RE)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% – Based on [3], 

see text

* Mass of Pb content per c-Si module based on 60 cell module and 0.22 gram Pb per cell assuming 156 

mm cell, 3 busbars (front and back cell) and Sn63Pb37 solder [19].

4. Dispersion Modeling 

The concentrations in ambient air, resulting from burning of modules during a building fire, are 

estimated using the USEPA-approved Gaussian plume dispersion model SCREEN3 [20]. Small, medium, 

and large building fires are all evaluated, to determine worst-case potential impacts. Use of the 

SCREEN3 model for this purpose is consistent with USEPA guidance [21], which recommends that 

chemical release from a burning pool of liquid or from a burning pile of tires be modeled with TSCREEN 

[22] as a gaseous release from a flare point source; and is consistent with industry practice [23]. Fire 

plume behavior is assumed to be similar between a burning building and a burning pool or a burning pile 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

11

of tires. TSCREEN uses a variety of air dispersion models (SCREEN3, PUFF, and RVD) to evaluate different 

types of releases. For the burning pool and burning pile of tires scenarios, TSCREEN uses a version of 

SCREEN3 to evaluate plume dispersion. Therefore, SCREEN3 is used in this report as well. 

Key model input parameters are discussed below. Overall, the modeling approach is designed to 

quantify worst-case potential impacts at any ground-level receptor location downwind from the edge of 

the burning building across a range of potential fire scenarios (small, medium, and large building fires). 

Building downwash model options are employed to consider eddies on the downwind side of the 

building that may draw near-building plumes downward, potentially impacting ground-level receptors. 

Building height and flare stack height (4 m and 5 m, respectively) assume a one-story building, as this 

will result in the greatest impact to downwind ground-level receptors. The model allows the user to 

specify urban or rural land use in the vicinity of the emissions source. The more conservative option, 

rural land use, is used in all model runs in this assessment.

• Source type. As noted above, the small, medium, and large building fires are modeled as point 

flare sources. Modeling an area/volume source (e.g., building fire) as a point source is 

conservative, as this assumption neglects the initial dilution provided by air which is drawn in 

over the source [21]. 

• Emission rate. A unit emission rate of 1 g/s is used in all model runs. The concentrations 

predicted by the model are therefore considered “normalized” concentrations (μg/m3 per g/s). 

Model predictions are later scaled by the actual emission rates, to estimate downwind 

concentrations (μg/m3). 

• Total heat release rate. This input parameter influences the initial plume rise; a higher value 

produces more plume rise, greater dispersion, and therefore lower concentrations. The heat 

release rates (cal/s) from small residential and large commercial fires are estimated by assuming 

a low heat flux of 50 kW/m2 [24] from each type of fire (small, medium, and large building fires); 

the heat release rates (cal/s) are then calculated by multiplying this assumed heat flux by the 

area of modules burned (Table 2). Given higher heat flux, the actual plume rise and dispersion 

downwind from building fires would be greater than estimated here. 

• Meteorological conditions. As indicated in Table 3, a “1 (full)” variety of meteorological 

conditions (e.g., combinations of wind speed and atmospheric stability) are considered to 

identify worst-case potential impacts. SCREEN3 uses Pasquill-Gifford stability classes 

representing six levels of atmospheric stability (1 – very unstable; 2 – unstable; 3 – slightly 

unstable; 4 – neutral; 5 – slightly stable; 6 – stable). The specific combination of wind speed and 

stability class resulting in maximum downwind concentration is shown in the “Results” section 

of Table 3. 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Table 2. Calculation of heat release rates applicable to all PV module types

Parameter

Small

Building

Medium

Building

Large

Building Units Notes

Heat flux 50 50 50 kW/m2 [24]

Rooftop area 100 2,500 10,000 m2 See Table 1

Heat release 

rate

5.00E+06 1.25E+08 5.00E+08 J/s Multiplication

Heat release 

rate

1.20E+06 2.99E+07 1.20E+08 cal/s Units 

conversion

The output parameter from the SCREEN3 model is the worst-case 1-hour average normalized 

concentration (μg/m3 per g/s), after accounting for a range of possible meteorological conditions as 

described above, a range of downwind distances (Table 3), and modeling options such as building 

downwash as described above. Modeling inputs and results are summarized in Table 3. 

Table 3. Summary of SCREEN3 Input Data* and Results

Small 

Building Fire

Medium 

Building Fire

Large 

Building Fire

Parameter Units

Input Data

Run title – S_1 M_1 L_1

Source Type – F (flare) F (flare) F (flare)

Mixing height option – (not used) (not used) (not used)

Non-default anemometer height – (not used) (not used) (not used)

Non-regulatory cavity calculation – (not used) (not used) (not used)

Emission rate g/s 1 1 1

Flare stack height m 5 5 5

Total heat release rate cal/s 1.20E+06 2.99E+07 1.20E+08

Receptor height above ground m 1 1 1

Urban/rural option – R (rural) R (rural) R (rural)

Consider building downwash? – Y (yes) Y (yes) Y (yes)

Building height m 4 4 4

Minimum horizontal building dimension m 10 50 100

Maximum horizontal building dimension m 10 50 100

Use complex terrain screen for terrain above stack 

height?

– N (no) N (no) N (no)

Use simple terrain screen with terrain above stack 

base?

– N (no) N (no) N (no)
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Small 

Building Fire

Medium 

Building Fire

Large 

Building Fire

Parameter Units

Choice of meteorology – 1 (full) 1 (full) 1 (full)

Automated distance array? – Y (yes) Y (yes) Y (yes)

Minimum distance m 5 25 50

Maximum distance m 1000 10000 10000

Use discrete distances? – N (no) N (no) N (no)

Fumigation calculation? – NA NA NA

Consider shoreline fumigation? – NA NA NA

Distance to shoreline m NA NA NA

Results

Maximum 1-hr normalized concentration μg/m3

per 

g/s

9.60E+01 7.43E-01 2.73E-01

Distance from source to maximum 1-hr normalized 

concentration 

m 40 1180 1436

Meteorological Stability Class 4 (Neutral) 1 (Very 

unstable)

1 (Very 

unstable)

Wind speed at 10 m m/s 20.0 2.0 3.0

*”(not used)” indicates optional case-specific meteorological modeling parameters not utilized in this study 

5. Persistence Factors 

The output parameter from the SCREEN3 model is the worst-case 1-hour average normalized 

concentration (μg/m3 per g/s). This 1-hour result is multiplied by persistence factors to estimate worstcase normalized concentrations over averaging times other than 1 hour. Specifically, for comparison of 

a predicted concentrations to acute risk-based screening levels (see Sections 6.0 and 7.0), worst-case 

normalized concentrations are estimated for averaging times of 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 

hours, and 8 hours (inhalation exposures are assumed to occur over each of these specific durations). 

The persistence factors used in this analysis are published by USEPA [12][13]. Persistence factors, and 

the resulting worst-case normalized concentrations, over the various averaging times are documented in 

Table 4 (small building fire), Table 5 (medium building fire), and Table 6 (large building fire). 

6. Exposure Point Concentrations 

Maximum concentrations (MC; μg/m3) in ambient air downwind from small, medium, and large building 

fires, resulting from emissions from burning modules, are estimated by combining the maximum

normalized concentrations (MNC; μg/m3 per g/s) with the estimated emission rates (ER; g/s) for 

different averaging times (AT; s): 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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MMMM = MMMMMM × EEEE (Eq. 1)

MMMMMM = MMMMMMMM × PPPP (Eq. 2)

EEEE = MM×NN×RRRR

AAAA (Eq. 3)

where M is the mass (g) of chemical content per module, N is the number of modules on rooftop, and RE 

is the release efficiency (%) in the flue gas (Table 1), and MHNC is the maximum 1-hr normalized 

concentration (μg/m3 per g/s) (Table 3) and PF is the persistence factor (PF; unitless) (Table 4).

For each type of building fire, worst-case concentrations are estimated for averaging times of 10 

minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, and 8 hours, and are compared to acute risk-based screening 

levels developed for these same exposure intervals (see Section 7). These calculations are documented 

in Table 4 (small building fire), Table 5 (medium building fire), and Table 6 (large building fire). 

For the small building fire, worst-case concentrations in air range from 0.004 μg/m3 (8-hour average) to 

9 μg/m3 (10-minute average) for Pb, 0.01 to 1 μg/m3 for Cd, and 0.001 to 0.09 μg/m3 for Se. For the 

medium building fire, worst-case concentrations in air range from 0.001 to 2 μg/m3 for Pb, 0.002 to 

0.2 μg/m3 for Cd, and 0.0002 to 0.02 μg/m3 for Se. For the large building fire, worst-case concentrations 

in air range from 0.001 to 2 μg/m3 for Pb, 0.003 to 0.3 μg/m3 for Cd, and 0.0003 to 0.03 μg/m3 for Se. 

Worst-case concentrations in ambient air are comparable to about an order of magnitude for the small, 

medium, and large building fires; the highest results are associated with the small building fire. The 

similarity in the results, across building/fire sizes, indicates that the competing effects of mass emission 

rate (larger fires have higher mass emissions) and heat release rate (larger fires with higher heat flux 

have greater plume dispersion) are approximately counterbalanced. 

Table 4. Summary of Exposure Point Concentrations in Air – Small Building Fire

Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

Pb emissions from 

c-Si PV

Mass Pb emission 

rate (ER; g/s) 6.25E-02 2.08E-02 1.04E-02 2.60E-03 1.30E-03 Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

9.60E+0

1

9.60E+01 9.60E+01

9.60E+0

1

9.60E+01 Table 3
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

Persistence Factor

(unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12] [13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3 per 

g/s)

1.37E+0

2

9.60E+01 9.60E+01

8.64E+0

1

6.72E+01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration (MC; 

μg/m3

)

9 2.0 1.0 0.23 0.09 Eq. 1

PAC-1 (μg/m3) 150 150 150 150 150 [16]

PAC-2 (μg/m3) 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 [16]

PAC-3 (μg/m3) 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 [16]

Ratio of max. conc. 

to PAC-2

7.16E-05 1.67E-05 8.34E-06 1.88E-06 7.29E-07

Cd emissions from 

CdTe PV

Mass Cd emission 

rate (ER; g/s) 6.71E-03 2.24E-03 1.12E-03 2.80E-04 1.40E-04 Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

9.60E+0

1

9.60E+01 9.60E+01

9.60E+0

1

9.60E+01 Table 3

Persistence Factor

(unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12] [13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

1.37E+0

2

9.60E+01 9.60E+01 8.64E+0

1

6.72E+01 Eq. 2
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

(MNC; μg/m3 per 

g/s)

Maximum 

concentration (MC; 

μg/m3

)

1 0.2 0.1 0.02 0.01 Eq. 1

AEGL-1 (μg/m3) 130 130 100 63 41 [15]

AEGL-2 (μg/m3) 1,400 960 760 400 200 [15]

AEGL-3 (μg/m3) 8,500 5,900 4,700 1,900 930 [15]

Ratio of max. conc. 

to PAC-2

6.59E-04 2.24E-04 1.41E-04 6.04E-05 4.70E-05

Se emissions from 

CIS PV

Mass Se emission 

rate (ER; g/s)

6.67E-04 2.22E-04 1.11E-04 2.78E-05 1.39E-05

Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

9.60E+0

1

9.60E+01 9.60E+01 9.60E+0

1

9.60E+01 Table 3

Persistence Factor

(unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12] [13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3 per 

g/s)

1.37E+0

2

9.60E+01 9.60E+01

8.64E+0

1

6.72E+01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration (MC; 

μg/m3

)

0.09 0.02 0.01 0.002 0.001

Eq. 1
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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

PAC-1 (μg/m3) 600 600 600 600 600 [16]

PAC-2 (μg/m3) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 [16]

PAC-3 (μg/m3) 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 [16]

Ratio of max. conc. 

to PAC-2

1.39E-05 3.23E-06 1.62E-06 3.64E-07 1.41E-07

Table 5. Summary of Exposure Point Concentrations in Air – Medium Building Fire

Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

Pb emissions from 

c-Si PV

Mass Pb emission 

rate (ER; g/s) 1.56E+00 5.21E-01 2.60E-01 6.51E-02 3.26E-02 Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 Table 3

Persistence Factor

(unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [11][13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3 per 

g/s)

1.06E+00 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 6.69E-01 5.20E-01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration (MC; 

μg/m3)

2 0.4 0.2 0.04 0.02 Eq. 1
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

PAC-1 (μg/m3) 150 150 150 150 150 [16]

PAC-2 (μg/m3) 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 [16]

PAC-3 (μg/m3) 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 [16]

Ratio of max. conc. 

to PAC-2

1.39E-05 3.23E-06 1.61E-06 3.63E-07 1.41E-07

Cd emissions from 

CdTe PV

Mass Cd emission 

rate (ER; g/s) 1.68E-01 5.59E-02 2.80E-02 6.99E-03 3.50E-03 Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 Table 3

Persistence Factor

(unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12][13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3 per 

g/s)

1.06E+00 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 6.69E-01 5.20E-01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration (MC; 

μg/m3

)

0.2 0.04 0.02 0.005 0.002 Eq. 1

AEGL-1 (μg/m3) 130 130 100 63 41 [15]

AEGL-2 (μg/m3) 1,400 960 760 400 200 [15]

AEGL-3 (μg/m3) 8,500 5,900 4,700 1,900 930 [15]
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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

Ratio of max. conc. 

to PAC-2

1.28E-04 4.33E-05 2.74E-05 1.17E-05 9.10E-06

Se emissions from 

CIS PV

Mass Se emission 

rate (ER; g/s)

1.67E-02 5.56E-03 2.78E-03 6.94E-04 3.47E-04

Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 Table 3

Persistence Factor

(unitless) 1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12][13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3 per 

g/s)

1.06E+00 7.43E-01 7.43E-01 6.69E-01 5.20E-01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration (MC; 

μg/m3)

0.02 0.004 0.002 0.0005 0.0002 Eq. 1

PAC-1 (μg/m3) 600 600 600 600 600 [16]

PAC-2 (μg/m3) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 [16]

PAC-3 (μg/m3) 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 [16]

Ratio of max. conc. 

to PAC-2

2.69E-06 6.26E-07 3.13E-07 7.04E-08 2.74E-08
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Table 6. Summary of Exposure Point Concentrations in Air – Large Building Fire

Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

Pb emissions 

from c-Si PV

Mass Pb 

emission rate 

(ER; g/s)

6.25E+00 2.08E+00 1.04E+00 2.60E-01 1.30E-01 Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 Table 3

Persistence 

Factor (unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12]

[13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3

per g/s)

3.91E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.46E-01 1.91E-01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration 

(MC; μg/m3

)

2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.02 Eq. 1

PAC-1 (μg/m3) 150 150 150 150 150 [16]

PAC-2 (μg/m3) 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 [16]

PAC-3 (μg/m3) 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 [16]

Ratio of max. 

conc. to PAC-2

2.04E-05 4.74E-06 2.37E-06 5.34E-07 2.08E-07

Cd emissions 

from CdTe PV
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

Mass Cd 

emission rate 

(ER; g/s)

6.71E-01 2.24E-01 1.12E-01 2.80E-02 1.40E-02 Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 Table 3

Persistence 

Factor (unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12]

[13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3

per g/s)

3.91E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.46E-01 1.91E-01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration 

(MC; μg/m3)

0.3 0.06 0.03 0.007 0.003 Eq. 1

AEGL-1 (μg/m3) 130 130 100 63 41 [15]

AEGL-2 (μg/m3) 1,400 960 760 400 200 [15]

AEGL-3 (μg/m3) 8,500 5,900 4,700 1,900 930 [15]

Ratio of max. 

conc. to PAC-2

1.88E-04 6.37E-05 4.02E-05 1.72E-05 1.34E-05

Se emissions 

from CIS PV

Mass Se 

emission rate 

(ER; g/s)

6.67E-02 2.22E-02 1.11E-02 2.78E-03 1.39E-03

Eq. 3

Maximum 1-hr 

normalized 

2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 Table 3
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Averaging Time (min)

Parameter 10 30 60 240 480 Note

concentration 

(μg/m3 per g/s)

Persistence 

Factor (unitless)

1.43 1 1 0.9 0.7 [12]

[13]

Maximum 

normalized 

concentration 

(MNC; μg/m3

per g/s)

3.91E-01 2.73E-01 2.73E-01 2.46E-01 1.91E-01 Eq. 2

Maximum 

concentration 

(MC; μg/m3

)

0.03 0.01 0.003 0.001 0.0003 Eq. 1

PAC-1 (μg/m3) 600 600 600 600 600 [16]

PAC-2 (μg/m3) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 [16]

PAC-3 (μg/m3) 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 [16]

Ratio of max. 

conc. to PAC-2

3.95E-06 9.20E-07 4.60E-07 1.04E-07 4.03E-08

7. Risk Characterization 

7.1 Acute Noncancer Hazards 

The predicted worst-case concentrations in ambient air resulting from a fire are transient in nature; as 

discussed above, inhalation exposures are assumed to occur over a short duration of between 10 

minutes and 8 hours. The time it takes for materials to be released from the modules during a fire can 

vary. As a worst-case, release over a range of acute time periods of interest is assumed. The potential 

acute noncancer health effects associated with these short-term (acute) inhalation exposures are 

evaluated through a comparison of predicted exposure point concentrations with AEGL and PAC criteria. 

PAC are based on AEGL, Emergency Response Planning Guidelines (ERPG) from the American Industrial 

Hygiene Association [25] or Temporary Emergency Exposure Limits (TEEL) criteria from USDOE [26], in 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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that order of preference (preference order established because of the more extensive review of animal 

and human studies for AEGL and ERPG than TEEL). 

The AEGL and PAC criteria represent threshold exposure limits for the general public. Note that AEGL 

provide criteria specific to acute exposure periods ranging from 10 minutes to 8 hours, whereas PAC 

only provide criteria based on a 60-minute exposure period. Use of PAC criteria is conservative for 

averaging times less than 60 minutes but overestimates the tolerable effects threshold for averaging 

times exceeding 60 minutes. The resulting uncertainty is less than an order of magnitude as discussed in 

section 8.2. In contrast, the AEGL criteria are specific to each averaging time (Fig. 2).

Three levels are distinguished by varying degrees of severity of toxic effects, as follows, with each level 

defined in the same way for both AEGL and PAC

• AEGL-1 or PAC-1 is the airborne concentration of a substance above which it is predicted that 

the general population, including susceptible individuals, could experience notable discomfort, 

irritation, or certain asymptomatic, non-sensory effects. However, the effects are not disabling 

and are transient and reversible upon cessation of exposure. 

• AEGL-2 or PAC-2 is the airborne concentration of a substance above which it is predicted that 

the general population, including susceptible individuals, could experience irreversible or other 

serious, long-lasting adverse health effects or an impaired ability to escape. 

• AEGL-3 or PAC-3 is the airborne concentration of a substance above which it is predicted that 

the general population, including susceptible individuals, could experience life-threatening 

health effects. 

The AEGL-2 or PAC-2 criteria were used by the Bavarian Environmental Protection Agency to determine 

whether there is a serious (disabling) risk to potential receptors [6], and that approach is also followed in 

this report.

The comparison of predicted exposure point concentrations with the AEGL and PAC criteria is presented 

in Table 4 (small building fire), Table 5 (medium building fire), and Table 6 (large building fire). For all 

three types of building fire, predicted concentrations are below AEGL-2/PAC-2 thresholds (Figs. 1-3), and 

also below AEGL-1/PAC-1 and AEGL-3/PAC-3 thresholds, for all averaging times. 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

24

Figure 1: Maximum ground-level ambient air Pb concentration and PAC-2 acute exposure screening level 

[16] for small, medium, and large building fires with rooftop c-Si PV. 

Figure 2: Maximum ground-level ambient air Cd concentration and AEGL-2 acute exposure screening 

level [15] for small, medium, and large building fires with rooftop CdTe PV.

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Maximum ground

0 100 200 300 400 500

-level air 

concentration (

μg Pb/m3)

Averaging period (min)

c-Si PV 

Small building fire Medium building fire

Large building fire PAC-2 screening level

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Maximum ground

0 100 200 300 400 500

-level air 

concentration (

μg Cd/m3)

Averaging period (min)

CdTe PV 

Small building fire Medium building fire

Large building fire AEGL-2 screening level
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

25

Figure 3: Maximum ground-level ambient air Se concentration and PAC-2 acute exposure screening level

[16] for small, medium, and large building fires with rooftop CIS PV. 

7.2 Incremental Cancer Risks

The potential for chemicals to cause cancer is typically based on assumed chronic (long-term) exposure. 

However, to be health protective and to understand whether the dose associated with a potential onetime short-term exposure associated with a fire could theoretically result in a significant probability that 

the receptors develop cancer over the course of their lifetime, this screening-level methodology

estimates the incremental cancer risks associated with short-term inhalation exposure. The potential 

incremental cancer risk associated with inhalation is quantified in accordance with USEPA inhalation risk 

assessment methodology [14]: 

(Eq. 4)

RISK = inhalation cancer risk, i.e., the incremental probability of an individual developing 

cancer as a result of lifetime inhalation exposure to a particular chemical (unitless); 

URF = inhalation unit risk factor, i.e., the excess cancer risk associated with lifetime inhalation 

exposure to a unit concentration of 1 μg/m3 of a particular chemical (per μg/m3); 

CA = exposure point concentration of chemical in air (μg/m3); 

ED = exposure duration (hr); and 

ATca = averaging time for carcinogenic effects (hr). 

The inhalation carcinogenic potency is described by the inhalation unit risk factor (URF). The inhalation 

unit risk factor is defined as the upper-bound excess lifetime cancer risk estimated to result from 

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Maximum ground

0 100 200 300 400 500

-level air 

concentration (

μg Se/m3)

Averaging period (min)

CIS PV 

Small building fire Medium building fire

Large building fire PAC-2 screening level

ATca

ED RISK = URF×CA ×
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

26

continuous (lifetime) exposure to a carcinogen present in air at a unit concentration of 1 μg/m3

. The 

inhalation unit risk factors for Pb and Cd used in this health screening evaluation are the values of 

1.20×10-5 and 1.80×10-3 (μg/m3)

-1 published by OEHHA [27] and USEPA [28], respectively. An inhalation 

unit risk factor is not applicable for Se as selenium and its compounds are not classified as carcinogens, 

with the exception of selenium sulifide [28], and the latter is not present in CIS PV.

Potential incremental cancer risks for the small, medium, and large fire scenarios are calculated using 

the exposure point concentrations and exposure duration associated with the 10-minute exposure 

scenario (Tables 4-6), which produces the highest product of concentration and duration and thus the 

highest incremental cancer risk (per Eq. 4). In accordance with standard USEPA risk assessment 

methodology [29], carcinogenic health effects are evaluated by averaging the total cumulative exposure 

over a 70-year lifetime. Thus, the averaging time for carcinogenic effects (ATc) is assumed to be 613,200 

hours (i.e., 70 years).

The potential incremental cancer risks associated with inhalation of Pb and Cd from PV modules in small, 

medium, and large building fires are documented in Table 7. These estimated potential incremental 

cancer risks are less than the 1×10-6 (one in a million) risk level that is typically considered to be a 

negligible risk level by regulatory agencies like USEPA [30]. 

Table 7. Potential Inhalation Cancer Risk

Value

Parameter

Small

Building

Medium

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

Pb emissions from c-Si PV

CA

Exposure point 

concentration in 

air (Pb)

9 2 2 μg/m3

10-minute 

exposure; 

see Tables 4 

through 6

URF Inhalation unit 

risk factor 1.20E-05 1.20E-05 1.20E-05 per μg/m3 [27]

ED Exposure 

duration 0.17 0.17 0.17 hr 10-minute exposure

ATca

Averaging time 

for carcinogenic 

effects

613,200 613,200 613,200 hr 70 years [29]

RISK

Inhalation cancer 

risk 3E-11 5E-12 8E-12 – Eq. 2

Cd emissions from CdTe PV

CA

Exposure point 

concentration in 

air (Cd)

1 0.2 0.3 μg/m3

10-minute 

exposure; 

see Tables 4 

through 6

URF

Inhalation unit 

risk factor 1.80E-03 1.80E-03 1.80E-03 per μg/m3 [28]
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

27

Value

Parameter

Small

Building

Medium

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

ED Exposure 

duration 0.17 0.17 0.17 hr 10-minute exposure

ATca

Averaging time 

for carcinogenic 

effects

613,200 613,200 613,200 hr 70 years [29]

RISK Inhalation cancer 

risk 5E-10 9E-11 1E-10 – Eq. 2

Pb emissions from CIS PV

CA

Exposure point 

concentration in 

air (Pb)

0.09 0.02 0.03

μg/m3

10-minute 

exposure; 

see Tables 4 

through 6

URF Inhalation unit 

risk factor 

Not 

applicable Not applicable Not applicable per μg/m3 [28]

ED Exposure 

duration 0.17 0.17 0.17 hr 10-minute exposure

ATca

Averaging time 

for carcinogenic 

effects

613,200 613,200 613,200 hr 70 years [29]

RISK Inhalation cancer 

risk

Not 

applicable

Not applicable Not applicable – Eq. 2

8 Uncertainties

8.1 Modeling Approach

The analysis presented above follows a screening-level approach, with the intent of developing order of 

magnitude-level estimates of potential risk after applying health-protective assumptions. Screeninglevel methods, such as used here, are meant to identify potential health risk scenarios that are greater 

than defined thresholds and may warrant further analysis. Concentrations in ambient air resulting from 

chemical release from modules during a fire are estimated using the USEPA-approved Gaussian plume 

dispersion model SCREEN3 [20]. Use of the SCREEN3 model for this purpose is consistent with USEPA 

guidance for an analogous scenario: chemical release from a burning pool of liquid or from a burning 

pile of tires modeled as a gaseous release from a flare point source. Modeling a fire as a point source is 

conservative, as this assumption neglects the initial dilution provided by air which is drawn-in over an 

area-wide fire source, such as PV on a roof [21]. Use of Gaussian plume dispersion modeling is 

consistent with the methodology of the Bavarian Environmental Protection Agency [6], which utilized 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

28

VDI guideline 3783, sheet 1 [7], a calculation method for estimating the Gaussian distribution of releases 

caused by accidents.

8.2 Other Topics

Other sources of uncertainty in the fire analysis include the following. 

• Release efficiency . The experimental approach of Prume and Viehweg [3] is the basis for 

estimating chemical release rates of PV modules for the modeled fire scenarios. The estimated 

mass emission rates, and ultimately predicted concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Se in ambient air,

are linearly proportional to this experimental release efficiency. Future experimental studies 

including commercial and emerging PV technologies (e.g., perovskite) and measuring emissions 

in both flue gas and fire water could confirm and supplement the chemical release rates used in 

this report. Emissions to air of Cd from CdTe PV and Se from CIGS PV in earlier PV fire tests 

[8][11] are comparable to those used here.

• Building size. As the building size and, therefore, the module array size increase, the mass of 

chemical released and, therefore, predicted normalized concentrations increase. The heat 

release rate and, therefore, plume dispersion also increase with building size, acting to decrease 

normalized concentrations. Building sizes of 100 m2, 2,500 m2, and 10,000 m2 have been 

evaluated in this study, but in a real fire, the building size may differ from one of these 

assumptions. As shown in Figures 1-3, the competing factors of building size and heat release 

rate approximately counterbalance to within about an order of magnitude for the small, 

medium, and large building fires, with the highest results associated with the small building fire. 

• Heat release rate. The assumed heat release rates from small, medium, and large building fires 

are based on an assumed heat flux of 50 kW/m2, but in a real fire, the heat flux could be higher 

or lower (from about 25 to 150 kW/m2 [24]). Higher heat release rates would result in greater 

plume rise and dispersion downwind from building fires; therefore, concentrations in ambient 

air and associated potential inhalation health impacts would likely be lower than estimated 

here. Conversely, lower heat release rates would result in lower plume rise and less downwind 

dispersion, though lower heat release rates also correspond to lower emission rates. In Prume 

and Viehweg [3], emissions from c-Si PV modules ranged from 61 mg Pb for the 25 kW burner to 

600 mg Pb for the 150 kW burner with water spray; emissions from CdTe PV modules ranged 

from 19 mg Cd for the 25 kW burner to 29 mg Cd for the 150 kW burner with water spray, and 

emissions from CIS PV modules ranged from 5.9 mg Se for the 25 kW burner to 4.8 mg Se for the 

150 kW burner with water spray. The emissions from the 150 kW burner with water spray were 

used in this report due to the availability of data for emissions to both air and water.

• Building height. The dispersion modeling described above assumes a one-story building, as this 

will result in the greatest impact downwind. If a taller building were used, the plume would 

intersect the ground surface further from the source, resulting in lower predicted ground-level 

concentrations. 

• Building shape. The dispersion modeling above assumes a square building. If other shapes were 

used, the distance from the center of the source to the edge of the building would vary 

depending on wind direction. The shorter the distance the greater the plume concentration. 

However, the shorter the distance, the less realistic the assumption that all the mass on the roof 

is available for emission into the plume, because the plume width is a function of the distance 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

29

downwind from the source of the plume to the receptor, in this case the edge of the building. 

Thus, as long as the plume width at the edge of the building is no wider than the side of the 

square building, a square-shaped building will always result in the worst-case estimate of plume 

concentration across all possible building shapes. The plume width at the edge of the building 

can be estimated by multiplying the lateral dispersion coefficient (σy) at the edge of the building 

by 4.3 [20]. For all modeling runs, the width of the plume is less than the length of building 

side – accordingly it is concluded that use of a square-shaped building results in a conservative 

estimate for all building shapes.

• Averaging times. Inhalation exposure assessment is based on averaging times ranging from 10 

minutes to 8 hours. Whereas AEGLs provide screening criteria specific to each of these 

averaging times, PAC only provide criteria based on a 60-minute exposure period. For averaging 

times exceeding 60 minutes, the PAC criteria overestimate the tolerable effects threshold and 

for averaging times less than 60 minutes, the PAC criteria underestimate the tolerable effects 

threshold. Because the AEGL criteria vary by less than an order of magnitude over the averaging 

times (10 minutes to 8 hours), it is likely that the PAC criteria overestimate or underestimate 

tolerable effects thresholds by less than an order of magnitude for the same range of averaging 

times. Given that the maximum concentrations in Tables 4-6 are several orders of magnitude 

below PAC criteria, this source of uncertainty would not change the risk characterization. 

• Carcinogenicity. The potential incremental cancer risk associated with inhalation of Pb and Cd is

quantified in accordance with USEPA inhalation risk assessment methodology. The approach

applied is conservative (assumptions are biased to being more health protective rather than 

less); it is uncertain whether short-term exposures as a result of a fire would increase an 

individual’s lifetime probability of developing cancer, as cancer studies are based on long-term 

exposures.

8.3 Applicability

With regards to applicability of the risk assessment methods presented here to other chemicals and 

PV technologies, the methods can be applied given the availability of chemical release efficiency 

data, chemical fate and transport factors, and health screening values. For example, organic–

inorganic halide perovskites are an emerging third generation PV technology that has achieved rapid 

advances in cell efficiency and considerable research and development funding and focus from 

academic and industrial research groups. The basic structure of a perovskite module consists of 

transparent conductive oxide (TCO-coated) glass, an electron transport layer, a perovskite absorber

(e.g., CH3NH3PbI3), a hole transport layer, and a back contact. Module packaging includes use of a 

standard encapsulant and a backsheet or back glass. A unique aspect of perovskite device 

manufacturing is relatively low processing temperature including the possibility of solution-based 

absorber deposition. These aspects increase the potential for relatively low electricity requirements 

in module manufacturing. 

Perovskite PV modules are expected to contain small quantities of Pb content (~0.4 g per m2 of 

module) [31] which is over an order of magnitude less than Pb content considered here for c-Si PV 

modules. Because perovskite PV technology is still in the process of being commercialized, data on 

release efficiency of Pb content in fire is not publicly available. Flue gas and fire water emissions 

testing similar to that conducted for c-Si, CdTe, and CIS PV modules [3] may be conducted for 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

30

commercial perovskite PV modules to enable application of the risk assessment methodologies 

presented here.

9. Evaluation of Potential Transport to Soil and Groundwater 

In addition to potential direct impacts from short-term (acute) inhalation exposures, potential indirect 

impacts associated with transport to soil and/or groundwater has also been considered in this 

screening-level methodology. Extinguishing the fire with water may result in water-borne transport to 

soil and/or groundwater. In Appendix A, potential exposures in soil and groundwater have been 

quantified and compared to thresholds of concern, with a summary of results presented here. 

The potential transport to soil and groundwater, and the subsequent potential exposures between 

human populations and substances in soil and groundwater, are evaluated in Appendix A. The key 

assumptions of these evaluations may be summarized as follows: 

• Consistent with the inhalation-exposures scenario presented here in the main text, a small, 

medium, and large building fire are considered in the evaluation. 

• The quantity of emissions to the water used to extinguish fire is estimated from measurements 

by Prume and Viehweg [3]. The resulting concentration in water in conjunction with the volume 

of annual precipitation that falls upon a site of the fire is assumed to be representative of the 

long-term average concentration in vadose (unsaturated) soil water throughout the site (Eq. A1).

• Exposure point concentrations in soil and groundwater, resulting from transport from impacted 

vadose soil water, are estimated by USEPA soil screening guidance methodology (section A2). 

• The potential significance of exposures to Pb, Cd, and Se is evaluated through comparison of 

exposure point concentrations to USEPA risk-based screening levels (RBSL) in soil and water and 

comparison to USEPA maximum contaminant levels (MCL) in water [30]. 

The results of this evaluation may be summarized as follows (Figures 4-9). 

• For all three building scenarios considered in the evaluation, estimated exposure point 

concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Se in groundwater from c-Si, CdTe, and CIS PV are below the 

groundwater RBSL and MCL (Table A-2). 

• For all three building scenarios considered in the evaluation, estimated exposure point 

concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Se in soil from c-Si, CdTe, and CIS PV are below the soil RBSL

(Table A-2). 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

31

Figure 4: Exposure point concentration in soil in comparison to a USEPA risk-based soil screening level 

[30] for rooftop c-Si PV emissions of Pb to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires. 

Figure 5: Exposure point concentration in groundwater in comparison to a USEPA risk-based 

groundwater screening level and maximum contaminant level [30] for rooftop c-Si PV emissions of Pb to 

fire water for small, medium, and large building fires. 

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1,000.00

Small building Medium building Large building

Concentration in soil 

(mg Pb/kg)

c-Si PV

Exposure Point Concentration Risk-based Screening Level

0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

0.014

0.016

Small building Medium building Large building

Concentration in groundwater

(mg Pb/L)

c-Si PV

Exposure Point Concentration

Risk-based Screening Level | Maximum Contaminant Level
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

32

Figure 6: Exposure point concentration in soil in comparison to a USEPA risk-based soil screening level 

[30] for rooftop CdTe PV emissions of Cd to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires. 

Figure 7: Exposure point concentration in groundwater in comparison to a USEPA risk-based 

groundwater screening level and maximum contaminant level [30] for rooftop CdTe PV emissions of Cd 

to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires. 

0.00

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

Small building Medium building Large building

Concentration in soil 

(mg Cd/kg)

CdTe PV

Exposure Point Concentration Risk-based Screening Level

0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

Small building Medium building Large building

Concentration in groundwater

(mg Cd/L)

CdTe PV

Exposure Point Concentration Risk-based Screening Level

Maximum Contaminant Level
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Figure 8: Exposure point concentration in soil in comparison to a USEPA risk-based soil screening level 

[30] for rooftop CIS PV emissions of Se to fire water for small, medium, and large building fires. 

Figure 9: Exposure point concentration in groundwater in comparison to a USEPA risk-based 

groundwater screening level and maximum contaminant level [30] for rooftop CIS PV emissions of Se to 

fire water for small, medium, and large building fires. 

0.00

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1,000.00

Small building Medium building Large building

Concentration in soil 

(mg Se/kg)

CIS PV

Exposure Point Concentration Risk-based Screening Level

0.00001

0.00010

0.00100

0.01000

0.10000

1.00000

Small building Medium building Large building

Concentration in groundwater

(mg Se/L)

CIS PV

Exposure Point Concentration Risk-based Screening Level

Maximum Contaminant Level
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

34

10. Summary

This report presents methods for analysis of potential health impacts associated with emissions from 

burning photovoltaic modules during a building fire, as demonstrated through analysis for the highest 

prioritized chemical in each of three PV technologies: Pb content in c-Si PV, Cd content in thin film CdTe 

PV, and Se content in thin film CIS PV. The analysis quantifies potential impacts over a wide range of 

possible conditions, including building/fire size, receptor location, exposure duration and meteorological 

conditions, using a USEPA recommended Gaussian plume modeling approach. The analysis follows a 

conservative, screening-level approach, with the intent of developing order of magnitude-level 

estimates of potential risk after applying health-protective assumptions. Screening-level methods such 

as used here are meant to identify potential health risk scenarios that are greater than defined 

thresholds and may warrant further analysis.

The potential acute, noncancer health effects associated with inhalation are evaluated through a 

comparison of predicted exposure point concentrations with Acute Exposure Guidelines (AEGLs) 

published by USEPA, and if not available for a particular chemical, Protective Action Criteria (PAC) 

published by USDOE. For the small, medium, and large building fires considered in the analysis, 

predicted Pb, Cd, and Se concentrations are below AEGL/PAC for all three averaging times and screening 

thresholds investigated (AEGL-1/PAC-1 for non-disabling health effects; AEGL-2/PAC-2 for disabling; and 

AEGL-3/PAC-3 forlife-threatening). The potential incremental cancer risks associated with inhalation of 

Pb and Cd released from modules in small, medium, and large building fires are less than the 1×10-6 (one 

in a million) risk level that is typically considered to be a negligible risk level by regulatory agencies. 

(Note that incremental cancer risks associated with inhalation of Se potentially released from 

photovoltaic modules are not evaluated because Se is not classified as a carcinogen.) An evaluation 

(presented in Appendix A) of potential transport to soil or groundwater by transport by fire water, 

indicates potential impacts to soil and groundwater below risk-based screening limits and maximum 

contaminant levels. 

Screening-level human health risk assessment has been conducted for potential ground-level receptors 

(neighborhood and general public), but not for potential occupational exposures to firefighters, which 

may be evaluated separately using occupational health screening values and accounting for 

occupational exposure factors. Potential ecological risks have also not been evaluated in this report. 

For a more complete evaluation of the potential health risks from PV modules on the roof of a building 

on fire, the methods demonstrated here for Pb, Cd, and Se can be applied to other chemicals of 

potential concern that are present in current or emerging PV technologies.
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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APPENDIX A – EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO SOIL AND 

GROUNDWATER

A1. Introduction

This technical appendix documents an evaluation of potential chemical release from PV modules during 

a fire and subsequent transport to soil and groundwater. Chemicals released from a fire may be 

transported to soil and subsequently to groundwater via two primary pathways. First, and the primary 

focus of this appendix, is the result of the application of water to extinguish the fire. As a chemical is 

released from the modules during the fire, it may become entrained in the extinguishing water, and this 

water may run onto the ground surface. Second, as a chemical is released from the modules during the 

fire, it may be become entrained in air lofting upward, and later deposited to the ground surface via 

airborne deposition. In this evaluation, it is explained why potential exposures associated with 

extinguishing water and subsequent soil deposition provide a conservative estimate of potential 

exposures associated with airborne deposition. 

The approach followed in this evaluation may be summarized as follows. 

• The potential mass of chemical released from modules during a building fire is estimated based 

on the amount of chemical present in the modules and the release efficiency in fire water from 

modules in a building fire. 

• All of the chemical that is released from modules during the fire is assumed to be entrained in 

the water used to extinguish the fire. It is assumed that this chemical-impacted extinguishing 

water is discharged to the ground surface across the site. 

• A long-term (annual) average concentration in onsite soil water in the vadose (unsaturated) soil 

column is estimated from the mass released from the modules, the assumed volume of water 

used to extinguish the fire, and the assumed volume of rainfall that falls on the site in 1 year. 

• Given an estimated concentration in vadose soil water, the concentration in onsite vadose soil is 

estimated by assuming equilibrium partitioning between soil water and soil. This equilibrium 

soil concentration is used as the exposure point concentration in soil, for evaluating potential 

soil-based exposures. 

• Given the same estimated concentration in vadose soil pore water, the potential concentration 

in the groundwater aquifer at the point of extraction for use as tap water is estimated in 

accordance with the dilution-attenuation factor (DAF) approach recommended by USEPA. This 

estimated groundwater concentration is used as the exposure point concentration in water, for 

evaluating potential water-based exposures. 

• Potential health impacts associated with exposures in soil and groundwater are quantified by 

comparison of the estimated exposure point concentrations to risk-based screening levels and 

maximum contaminant levels. 

This evaluation process is applied to three module-usage scenarios, consistent with the inhalation risk 

evaluation presented in the main text; i.e., a small, medium, and large building. These methods are 

demonstrated in this report using example cases of evaluating potential human health risks from three 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

38

PV technologies: Pb content in c-Si PV, Cd content in thin film CdTe PV, and Se content in thin film CIS

PV. 

A2. Estimation of Exposure Point Concentrations in Soil and 

Groundwater

The potential transport of a chemical, released from modules during a fire, to soil and groundwater is 

evaluated in this section. Analogous to the smoke-inhalation exposure scenario evaluated in the main 

text, a small, medium, and large building are considered. Emissions from modules are estimated on the 

basis of the total mass of chemical contained in the modules and release-efficiency in fire water 

reported by Prume and Viehweg [1]. For c-Si PV, emissions of Pb to fire water ranged from 1.5 to 2.6 mg 

per module, corresponding to an average release efficiency in fire water of 0.016%, based on 13 g of Pb 

content per module (Table A-1). For CdTe PV, emissions of Cd to fire water ranged from 0.14 to 1.1 mg 

per module, corresponding to an average release efficiency in fire water of 0.010%, based on 6 g of Cd 

content per module (Table A-1). For CIS PV, emissions of Se to fire water ranged from 4.8 to 14 mg per 

module, corresponding to an average release efficiency in fire water of 0.17%, based on 5 g of Se 

content per module (Table A-1).

A2.1 Concentration in Soil

A screening-level annual average concentration in soil is estimated using a three-step process. First, the 

initial annual average concentration in vadose zone soil pore water is estimated from the mass of 

chemical released from the modules during the fire, the assumed volume of water used to extinguish 

the fire, and the assumed volume of rainfall that falls on the site in 1 year. Second, the concentration in 

onsite vadose soil is estimated by assuming equilibrium partitioning between soil pore water and soil. 

Third, a qualitative discussion is provided, explaining why potential exposures associated with 

extinguishing water and subsequent soil deposition is a conservative estimate of potential exposures 

associated with airborne dry deposition, and thus represent the maximum soil concentration likely to

occur as a result of a fire.

A2.1.1 Concentration in Vadose Soil Water

Efforts to control a fire through the application of water may result in a chemical becoming entrained in 

the extinguishing water, which may flow off the building onto the surrounding ground surface. This 

water may then flow into the soil and mix with vadose zone pore water and with rainfall that infiltrates 

into the soil over time. To evaluate chronic exposures associated with transport to soil and 

groundwater, an annual average concentration in the soil pore water is required. A conservative 

estimate of annual average pore water concentration can be made by assuming that all of the chemical 

mass released from the modules is retained in the vadose zone water phase with no losses to 

partitioning into soil, and that this mass mixes with incoming rainwater without dilution from the initial 

soil pore water. With these assumptions, a screening level annual-average concentration in soil pore 

water can be estimated using the following equations: 

WW = FF

VVFF+VVPP

(Eq. A-1)
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where:

CW = annual-average concentration in vadose soil pore water (mg/L); 

F = mass of chemical in fire water (mg);

VF = volume of water used to extinguish fire (L); and 

VP = volume of annual precipitation that falls upon site (L).

= MM × × (Eq. A-2)

where:

M = mass of chemical content per module (g/module); 

N = number of modules on rooftop; and

RE = release efficiency in fire water.

The volume of runoff water from a fire is uncertain. Field testing conducted on a “fruit shop” and a 

“sports store” reported volumes of water used to extinguish the fires of 3,600 and 2,000 liters, 

respectively [2]. Some of the water used to extinguish a fire will evaporate instead of becoming runoff 

water. The small building is similar to the “fruit shop” and “sports store” fires. For this evaluation, it is 

assumed that extinguishing the fire produces 1,000 liters of runoff water in the small building scenario. 

The medium and large buildings are assumed to produce proportionally more runoff water based on the 

difference in building roof area. The uncertainty in the volume of runoff water from a fire is unlikely to 

affect this evaluation because the annual rainwater volume is significantly greater than the extinguishing 

water volume. The annual rainwater volume is based on the average precipitation rate of the 97 climate 

stations included in the USEPA groundwater transport model used in this evaluation [3]. 

A2.1.2 Concentration in Impacted Soil

A worst-case concentration in onsite soil (Eq. A-3) is calculated under an assumption of equilibrium 

partitioning between soil water (with concentration given by Eq. A-1) and the solid soil phase. The 

equilibrium concentration represents the theoretical maximum concentration possible in the solid 

phase, given the concentration in soil pore water. The equilibrium soil concentration is estimated in 

accordance with the USEPA soil screening guidance [4]; it is noted that the equilibrium partitioning 

equation from the guidance is simplified here to account for Pb, Cd, and Se not being present in the air 

phase because they are nonvolatile. 

(Eq. A-3)

where:

CS = equilibrium concentration in soil (mg/kg); 

Kd = soil/soil-water partitioning coefficient (L/kg); 















 = × +

sg

w

w ρ

θ CS C Kd
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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θw = soil water-filled porosity (unitless); and

ρsg = soil particle density (kg/L).

This approach is conservative because it does not account for the loss of mass from the pore water, but 

instead assumes that the pore water constitutes an infinite source of chemical available for partitioning 

to the solid soil phase. In actuality, there is only a finite mass available (i.e., the mass that is released 

from modules during the fire), and as some of this mass partitions into the solid soil phase, the 

concentration in the pore water would decrease. The equilibrium soil concentration predicted here, 

however, is based on the initial, higher pore water concentration; the actual equilibrium soil 

concentration would be lower. 

The estimated screening level concentrations in soil for the three building sizes evaluated are presented 

in Table A-1. 

A2.1.3 Qualitative Evaluation of Airborne Deposition 

As noted above, a chemical released from the modules during the fire may become entrained in air 

lofting upward, and may later deposit to the ground surface via airborne deposition. Estimated 

exposures associated with extinguishing water provide a conservative estimate of potential exposures 

associated with airborne deposition, because the chemical released to the air will be dispersed over a 

much larger area than the area covered by water used to extinguish the fire. This increased dispersion 

will result in a significantly reduced mass per area of soil, as compared to the entrained-in-water 

transport scenario. 

A2.2 Concentration in Impacted Groundwater

The USEPA soil screening guidance provides a method of estimating concentrations in groundwater 

based on concentration in vadose soil water [5]. The guidance estimates the dilution attenuation factor 

(DAF) between the chemical concentration in vadose soil water and the concentration in groundwater at 

the point of use (i.e., at the location of a groundwater extraction well), which is assumed in the USEPA

methodology to be located at the edge of the source. 

(Eq. A-4)

where:

Cgw = concentration in groundwater aquifer at point of use (mg/L); and

DAF = dilution attenuation factor (unitless).

The DAF is dependent on the source area, which corresponds to the area of the site. Cal/EPA guidance 

recommends a building size of 10 meters by 10 meters and a site area of 1,000 square meters (m2) for 

residential evaluations [6]. There is no analogous site-area recommendation for commercial buildings. 

For the medium and large building scenarios, the area of the site not occupied by the building is 

assumed equal to the area of the site not occupied by the building under the small building scenario, 

i.e., 900 m2

. Thus the site area is assumed to be 3,400 m2 and 10,900 m2 for the medium and large 

building scenarios, respectively. Source area-specific DAF values for the small, medium, and large 

DAF

C C w

gw =
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building scenarios are derived through linear interpolation of adjacent 95th percentile DAF values 

presented in the USEPA soil screening guidance technical background document [5]. These interpolated 

DAF values are used in the calculation of Pb, Cd, and Se concentrations in soil and groundwater in Table 

A-1.

Tab. A-1 Calculation of Concentrations in Soil and Groundwater

Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

c-Si PV

Mass of Pb content per module 13 13 13 g/module

Main text; 

Table 1 

Number of modules on rooftop 63 1,563 6,250 module

Release efficiency in fire water 0.016% 0.016% 0.016% – Based on [1]; 

see text

Average Pb Concentration in Vadose Zone Soil Water

Mass of Pb in fire water 0.13 3.2 12.8 g Eq. A-2

Volume of fire water 1,000 25,000 100,000 L Adapted from 

[2]

Lot area 1,000 3,400 10,900 m2 [6]; see text

Rainfall rate 31 (79) 31 (79) 31 (79) in/yr

(cm/yr)

[3]

Annual rainfall volume 791,852 2,692,295 8,631,182 L/yr Based on 

area of site

Total annual infiltration volume 792,852 2,717,295 8,731,182 L Sum of fire 

water volume 

and annual 

rainfall 

volume
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Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

Avg. conc. in vadose zone soil 

water

1.62E-04 1.18E-03 1.47E-03 mg/L 1-year 

average 

concentration 

(Eq. 1)

Pb Concentration in Vadose Zone Soil

Soil water-filled porosity 0.3 0.3 0.3 unitless [7]

Soil particle density 1.5 1.5 1.5 kg/L [7]

Soil/soil-water partitioning 

coefficient

900 900 900 L/kg [8]

Equilibrium concentration in soil 0.15 1.06 1.32 mg/kg Eq. A-3

Pb Concentration in Groundwater 

DAF (1) 22.0 7.0 3.3 unitless [5]

Concentration in groundwater 7.3E-06 1.7E-04 4.4E-04 mg/L Eq. A-4

CdTe PV

Mass of Cd content per module 6 6 6 g/module Main text; 

Table 1

Number of modules on rooftop 139 3,472 13,889 module

Release efficiency in fire water 0.010% 0.010% 0.010% – Based on [1]; 

see text

Average Cd Concentration in Vadose Zone Soil Water

Mass of Cd in fire water 0.09 2.2 8.6 g Eq. A-2

Volume of fire water 1,000 25,000 100,000 L Adapted from 

[2]

Lot area 1,000 3,400 10,900 m2 [6] ; see text
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Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

Rainfall rate 31 (79) 31 (79) 31 (79) in/yr

(cm/yr)

[3]

Annual rainfall volume 791,852 2,692,295 8,631,182 L/yr Based on 

area of site

Total annual infiltration volume 792,852 2,717,295 8,731,182 L Sum of fire 

water volume 

and annual 

rainfall 

volume

Avg. conc. in vadose zone soil 

water

1.09E-04 7.92E-04 9.86E-04 mg/L 1-year 

average 

concentration 

(Eq. A-1)

Cd Concentration in Vadose Zone Soil

Soil water-filled porosity 0.3 0.3 0.3 unitless [7]

Soil particle density 1.5 1.5 1.5 kg/L [7]

Soil/soil-water partitioning 

coefficient

75 75 75 L/kg [7]; default 

soil pH of 6.8

Equilibrium concentration in soil 0.01 0.06 0.07 mg/kg Eq. A-3

Cd Concentration in Groundwater 

DAF (1) 22.0 7.0 3.3 unitless [5]

Concentration in groundwater 4.9E-06 1.1E-04 3.0E-04 mg/L Eq. A-4

CIS PV

Mass of Se content per module 5 5 5 g/module Main text; 

Table 1

Number of modules on rooftop 83 2,083 8,333 module
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Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

Release efficiency in fire water 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% – Based on [1]; 

see text

Average Se Concentration in Vadose Zone Soil Water

Mass of Se in fire water 0.8 20 78 g Eq. A-2

Volume of fire water 1,000 25,000 100,000 L Adapted from 

[2]

Lot area 1,000 3,400 10,900 m2 [6] ; see text

Rainfall rate 31 (79) 31 (79) 31 (79) in/yr

(cm/yr)

[3]

Annual rainfall volume 791,852 2,692,295 8,631,182 L/yr Based on 

area of site

Total annual infiltration volume 792,852 2,717,295 8,731,182 L Sum of fire 

water volume 

and annual 

rainfall 

volume

Avg. conc. in vadose zone soil 

water

9.88E-04 7.21E-03 8.97E-03 mg/L 1-year 

average 

concentration 

(Eq. A-1)

Se Concentration in Vadose Zone Soil

Soil water-filled porosity 0.3 0.3 0.3 unitless [7]

Soil particle density 1.5 1.5 1.5 kg/L [7]

Soil/soil-water partitioning 

coefficient

5 5 5 L/kg [7]; default 

soil pH of 6.8

Equilibrium concentration in soil 0.01 0.04 0.05 mg/kg Eq. A-3

Se Concentration in Groundwater 
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Parameter

Small 

Building

Medium 

Building

Large 

Building Units Source/Note

DAF (1) 22.0 7.0 3.3 unitless [5]

Concentration in groundwater 4.49E-05 1.03E-03 2.69E-03 mg/L Eq. A-4

(1) A DAF value for the specific site area is calculate through linear interpolation of the 95th percentile 

DAF values for the closest lower and the closest higher areas presented in Table A1 of Appendix E of the 

USEPA soil screening guidance technical background document [5].

A3. Comparison of Exposure Point Concentrations to Risk-based 

Screening Levels 

Exposure point concentrations in soil and groundwater calculated in Table A-1 are summarized in 

Table A-2 for the three exposure scenarios evaluated here, i.e., a small, medium, and large building fire. 

Exposure point concentrations in soil are compared to the soil risk-based screening levels [8]. Exposure 

point concentrations in groundwater are compared to groundwater risk-based screening levels [8] and 

maximum contaminant levels (MCLs), which are legal standards that apply to public water systems. The 

U.S. federal MCLs for Pb, Cd, and Se are 0.015, 0.005, and 0.05 mg/L, respectively [8]. Exposure point 

concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Se in soil and groundwater are below the associated risk-based and 

regulatory screening levels for c-Si PV, CdTe PV, and CIS PV. 

Potential exposures from soil and groundwater impacts are not summed because for each the soil 

evaluation and the groundwater evaluation, it is assumed that all of the mass released from the 

modules is transported to the media of concern. Therefore, adding these pathways together would 

“double count” the mass of chemical released from the modules. 

Tab. A-2 Comparison of Exposure Point Concentrations to Risk-based Screening Levels and Maximum 

Contaminant Levels [8]

Soil Evaluation Groundwater Evaluation

Building Size

Exposure 

Point 

Concentration

Risk-based 

Screening 

Level

Exposure Point 

Concentration

Risk-based 

Screening 

Level

Maximum 

Contaminant 

Level

(mg/kg) (mg/kg) (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L)

c-Si PV (Pb) 

Small building 0.15 400 0.0000073 0.015 0.015
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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Soil Evaluation Groundwater Evaluation

Building Size

Exposure 

Point 

Concentration

Risk-based 

Screening 

Level

Exposure Point 

Concentration

Risk-based 

Screening 

Level

Maximum 

Contaminant 

Level

(mg/kg) (mg/kg) (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L)

Medium building 1.06 400 0.00017 0.015 0.015

Large building 1.32 400 0.00044 0.015 0.015

CdTe PV (Cd) 

Small building 0.01 71 0.0000049 0.0092 0.005

Medium building 0.06 71 0.00011 0.0092 0.005

Large building 0.07 71 0.00030 0.0092 0.005

CIS PV (Se)

Small building 0.01 390 0.00004 0.100 0.050

Medium building 0.04 390 0.0019 0.100 0.050

Large building 0.05 390 0.003 0.100 0.050

A4. Uncertainties

A4.1 Concentration in Vadose Soil Water 

The exposure periods for evaluation of potential non-cancer and cancer effects are one year and either 

25 or 30 years, respectively. The release to the ground surface, however, is a one-time event. A oneyear average concentration in vadose soil water is estimated from the chemical mass released from 

modules in fire water, the volume of extinguishing water runoff, and the annual volume of rainfall. The 

methodologies used to estimate soil and groundwater impacts both assume an infinite source in vadose 

soil water at this estimated concentration, whereas there is only a finite mass available. Long-term 

exposure point concentrations in soil and groundwater are likely to be lower than estimated here under 

the assumption of a continuous source in vadose soil water. 

One-year concentrations in impacted media are calculated to compare to both cancer and non-cancer 

risk-based screening levels. This is conservative for comparison to cancer-based screening levels, which 

have a 25 or 30 year exposure duration. If rainfall over 25 or 30 years was included in the calculation of 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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the concentration in vadose soil water, the estimated concentration in water would be approximately a 

factor of 25 or 30 lower. The exposure point concentrations in soil and groundwater would be reduced 

by these same factors. 

A4.2 Source Area for Transport to Soil and Groundwater 

A key variable in estimating the exposure point concentrations in soil and groundwater is the area of 

impact. In this evaluation, it is assumed that infiltration of chemical-impacted extinguishing water 

results in impacted vadose soil water over the entire site area. For the small building scenario, both the 

assumed building size and assumed lot size are based on Cal/EPA guidance [6]; the site area is 

approximately 10 times greater than the building area. In the absence of any site-area guidance for 

larger buildings, the area of the site not occupied by the building is assumed equal to the area of the site 

not occupied by the building under the small building scenario. Thus, the area of these sites is uncertain 

but likely conservative. 

As the site area increases, the annual volume of rainwater incident upon the site increases, and (for 

constant building size, i.e., mass of chemical in the system) the estimated concentration in the vadose 

soil water decreases. The predicted equilibrium concentration in soil decreases linearly with the 

concentration in soil pore water (see Eq. A-3). Thus, the assumption of a larger site area (for constant 

building size) would result in lower estimated soil impacts. 

With respect to potential groundwater impacts, the assumed site area affects the calculation in two 

different ways, which act in opposing directions. As noted above, as site area increases, the estimated 

concentration in pore water decreases; thus the strength of the potential source of groundwater 

impacts decreases. As site area increases, however, the dilution-attenuation factor (DAF) also 

decreases, as the larger source would have a greater impact on groundwater concentrations (at 

constant pore water concentration [5]. These competing factors tend to cancel out (Eq. A-4), such that 

predicted groundwater concentrations are relatively insensitive to the assumed area over which a 

chemical is released as a result of a fire. An additional factor potentially affecting groundwater impacts 

is whether downspouts concentrate water runoff from buildings. For commercial buildings, downspout 

runoff could connect directly to sanitary sewer and not impact the ground, but since the condition of 

downspouts may be compromised during fire, the downspout scenario is not considered in this 

methodology.

Further, the extent to which the groundwater aquifer may become impacted is limited by the finite mass 

released from the modules in a fire. It is conservatively assumed, however, that there is an infinite 

source available, such that the entire site-wide vadose zone, from the ground surface to the 

groundwater table, is impacted at the predicted equilibrium partitioning concentration. Therefore, 

actual impacts to groundwater may be lower than estimated here. 

A5. Summary

This appendix documents the methodology and results of an evaluation of potential exposures to 

chemicals that could be present in soil and groundwater as a result of release from modules during a 

fire. Consistent with the inhalation risk evaluation presented in the main text, three module-usage 

scenarios have been considered in the evaluation: a small, medium, and large building. The major steps 
IEA-PVPS-TASK 12 Human health risk assessment methods for PV, Part 1: Fire risks

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of this evaluation were to: 1) model the transport of emissions to soil and groundwater and estimate 

exposure point concentrations in these media; 2) compare the estimated exposure point concentrations 

to risk-based screening levels and maximum contaminant levels to evaluate the potential significance of 

the exposures. These methods are demonstrated using example cases of evaluating potential human 

health risks from three PV technologies: Pb content in c-Si PV, Cd content in thin film CdTe PV, and Se

content in thin film CIS PV.

Two pathways by which chemicals released from modules in a fire could potentially be transported to 

soil and groundwater have been considered in this evaluation. The primary pathway, which is evaluated 

in detail in this appendix, is the result of the application of water to extinguish the fire. It is assumed 

that, as a chemical is released from the modules during the fire, it may become entrained in the 

extinguishing water, and this water may run onto the ground surface. Alternatively, as a chemical is 

released from the modules during the fire, it may be become entrained in air lofting upward, and later 

deposit to the ground surface via airborne dry deposition. This latter pathway (airborne dry deposition) 

has been discussed qualitatively, as the potential impacts to soil and groundwater would be less than 

those associated with the former pathway (water-borne transport), which have been quantified here. In 

the cases considered, estimated exposure point concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Se in soil and 

groundwater are below risk-based screening limits and maximum contaminant levels for c-Si, CdTe, and 

CIS PV, respectively. 

A6. References 

1. Prume, K., and J. Viehweg. LEITFADEN - Bewertung des Brandrisikos in Photovoltaik-Anlagen und 

Erstellung von Sicherheitskonzepten zur Risikominimierung, TÜV Rheinland and Fraunhofer ISE, 

2015.

2. New Zealand Fire Service, The Ecotoxicity of Fire-Water Runoff, Part II: Analytical Results, 2001.

3. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), EPA’s Composite Model for Leachate 

Migration with Transformation Products (EPACMTP), Parameters/Data Background Document, 

2003.

4. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Soil Screening Guidance: User’s Guide,

Second Edition, Office of Emergency and Remedial Response, 1996.

5. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Soil Screening Guidance: Technical 

Background Document, Second Edition, Appendix E – Determination of Groundwater Dilution 

Attenuation Factors, Office of Emergency and Remedial Response, 1994.

6. California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) Guidance for the Evaluation and 

Mitigation of Subsurface Vapor Intrusion to Indoor Air, Department of Toxic Substances Control 

(DTSC), 2005. 

7. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Supplemental Guidance for Developing 

Soil Screening Levels for Superfund Sites, Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response 

(OSWER), 2002.

8. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Regional Screening Levels (RSLs) -

User's Guide, 2017. Available: https://www.epa.gov/risk/regional-screening-levels-rsls-usersguide-november-2017.
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