The Electrification 

Futures Study:

Transportation 

Electrification

Paige Jadun

Council of State Governments 

National Conference

Cincinnati, Ohio

December 7, 2018

nrel.gov/EFS
NREL | 2

The Electrification Futures Study

Technology cost and performance (December 2017)

Demand-side adoption scenarios (June 2018)

dsgrid model documentation (August 2018)

Supply-side evolution scenarios (2019)

Impacts of electrification (2019)

Electricity system operations (~2020)

Value of demand-side flexibility (~2020)

Note: Future work scope is tentative

Published Ongoing and Planned
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Example for light-duty vehicles

Sales

Stock

Service

EFS Methodology

Three electrification scenarios developed 

to assess isolated impacts of 

electrification

• Reference

• Medium

• High

• Projections are designed to gain 

insight and are not forecasts or 

predictions

Sales shares determined from a 

combination of expert judgment 

based on current trends & 

consumer choice models
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Example for light-duty vehicles

Sales

Stock

Service

EFS Methodology

Projected sales shares from NREL’s ADOPT model

Sales shares determined from a 

combination of expert judgment 

based on current trends & 

consumer choice models

Three electrification scenarios developed 

to assess isolated impacts of 

electrification

• Reference

• Medium

• High

• Projections are designed to gain 

insight and are not forecasts or 

predictions
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Current State of Transportation Electrification

• Electricity currently plays a minor 

role in the transportation sector 

• In 2017:

– Less than 1% of energy use 

within transportation came 

from electricity

– Less than 2% of sales for 

light-duty vehicles were plugins

• But the transportation sector is 

evolving...
Tesla’s electric semi truck: 

Elon Musk unveils his new 

freight vehicle 

– Tesla 

States, cities and companies 

unveil a frenzy of new 

electric vehicle commitments

- Greentech Media

General Motors believes the 

future is all-electric and 

announced 20 fully electric 

models by 2023

– Wired 

Investments in electrified 

vehicles announced to date 

(Jan 2018) include at least $19 

billion by automakers in the 

U.S., $21 billion in China and 

$52 billion in Germany

– Reuters

Battery costs projected to 

drop from $209/kWh in 2017 

to $70/kWh in 2030

-Bloomberg New Energy Finance

As of October 2018, one 

million plug-in vehicles have 

been sold in the United 

States, with over 20,000 sales 

per month

- Argonne National Laboratory

Chicago Transit Orders 20 

Proterra Electric Buses - InsideEVS

A Rapidly Changing Landscape
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7

Transportation sector

results

• 2050 U.S. transportation fleet (High scenario): • 240 million light-duty plug

-in 

electric vehicles

• 7 million medium- and heavy-duty 

plug-in electric trucks

• 80 thousand battery electric 

transit buses 

• Together these deliver up to 76% of 

miles traveled from electricity in 2050

• 138,000 DCFC stations (447,000 plugs) 

and 10 million non-residential L2 plugs 

for light-duty vehicles
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2050 U.S. electricity 

consumption increases 

• Medium +932 TWh (20%)

– 810 TWh transport 

• High +1,782 TWh (38%) 

– 1,424 TWh from transport

1.6%/year CAGR (2016-2050)

1.2%/year

0.6%/year

Vehicle electrification dominates incremental 

growth in annual consumption 
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Electricity consumption 

profiles 

• Vehicle electrification increases 

annual consumption and peak 

loads

• Buildings electrification has a 

larger impact on load shapes

- Space and water heating demands 

increase winter peak loads
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Charging Flexibility

• Flexible EV charging can increase load 

factors, leading to:

• Reduction in infrastructure needs (e.g., 

peaking capacity)

• More economic efficient dispatch (e.g., 

increased utilization of lower-cost 

generation options)

• Potential for increased reliability

• This depends on the level of flexibility

• Current EFS analysis efforts include the 

impact of demand side flexibility

Load Duration Curve

Preliminary Results

Reduction of peak load 

with high flexibility

Preliminary Results—Do Not Distribute, Quote or Cite
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Additional EV charging considerations 

outside the scope of EFS

• Uncoordinated charging may lead to high demand peaks, 

requiring distribution infrastructure upgrades

• Electrification of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles may 

create new demand locations (e.g. along major highways, 

in remote areas, and in industrial zones), including fleet 

charging locations

• Growth in fast charging will further increase these power 

requirements 

• Autonomous vehicles and transportation network 

companies may further alter consumption profiles for EVs

Muratori, Matteo. 2018. “Impact of Uncoordinated Plug-in Electric Vehicle Charging on Residential Power Demand.” 

Nature Energy 3 (3): 193. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0074-z.
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Future Uncertainty

• Will battery costs continue to decline, and will battery performance continue to 

improve? 

• How might consumer preference—range anxiety, acceleration, automation—and 

technology development evolve? 

• Will charging infrastructure enable or impede electrification?

• How will ownership models—for vehicles and chargers—evolve and impact utility 

planning? How might utility-controlled charging and vehicle-to-grid services 

affect energy use and adoption?
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Thank you

paige.jadun@nrel.gov

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by 

Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under 

Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy 

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. The views 

expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. 

Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for 

publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, 

irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or 

allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.

All EFS reports and accompanying data 

can be found at www.nrel.gov/efs

NREL/PR-6A20-72948
Additional Slides
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Key Transportation Insights from EFS

• Significant opportunities exist for electric vehicles, in part because 

electricity currently provides <1% of total transportation energy needs 

• Light-duty plug-in electric cars and trucks drive the greatest overall 

electrification impact in all scenarios

• But electric freight trucks can play a major role, particularly for short-haul 

applications and in more transformational scenarios

• Transit buses are prime candidates for electrification
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Technology adoption and energy transitions 

generally follow characteristic S-curve shape

invention  innovation  niche market  pervasive diffusion  saturation  senescence 
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Foundational technology data

• Three technology advancement 

trajectories (slow, moderate, rapid) 

for buildings and transportation

technologies

• Literature-based summary of 

industrial electrotechnologies

Key Technologies:

• Light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, buses (multiple range PHEVs and BEVs)

• Air-source heat pumps (including cold-climate ASHPs)

• Heat pump water heaters

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

100

200

300

Batte 

BNEF 2016

Moawad et al. 2016

DOE-VTO

Interpolated

Slow Advancement

Moderate Advancement

Rapid Advancement
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Used in EFS modeling and available for download

Commercial ASHPs Levelized cost of driving (2020 Moderate)

installed cost and efficiency projections
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Electricity share of final energy doubles from 2016 

to 2050 under the High scenario

Note: Sector definitions and scope differ slightly between Historical and Modeled data
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Incremental 

Electricity Growth

• Annual electricity 

consumption (top) and 

incremental growth from 

Reference (bottom) 

driven by transportation

Moderate technology advancement case shown
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Electrification leads to 

energy savings

• Greater efficiency of electric 

technologies yields 

reductions in final energy 

consumption by up to 21% 

(High scenario), relative to 

the Reference

• Technology improvements 

could lead to even greater 

savings

• Impacts to primary energy 

will depend on generation 

mix

Note: Does not include all activities, e.g., petroleum refining and extraction excluded
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Estimated fuel use reductions

• Domestic onsite fuel use reductions: 74% gasoline, 35% diesel, 

37% natural gas in 2050 (High scenario)

• Expands opportunities for greater fuel use for power generation, fuel exports
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Impact of End-Use Efficiency