Recidivism Among Federal Violent Offenders

UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION
William H. Pryor Jr. 

Acting Chair

Rachel E. Barkow

Commissioner

Charles R. Breyer

Commissioner

Danny C. Reeves

Commissioner

Patricia K. Cushwa

Ex Officio

David Rybicki

Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen 

Staff Director

Glenn R. Schmitt

Director

Office of Research and Data

January 2019

United States Sentencing Commission

One Columbus Circle, N.E.

Washington, DC 20002

www.ussc.gov
Kim Steven Hunt, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate

Matthew J. Iaconetti, J.D., M.A., Assistant General Counsel

Kevin T. Maass, M.A., Research Associate
Introduction.........................................2

Key Findings........................................3

Measures of Recidivism and

Methodology......................................4

Offender and Offense 

Characteristics....................................8

Recidivism Findings...........................11

Chapter One

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chapter Two

VIOLENT AND 

NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS

Chapter Three

VIOLENT 

INSTANT OFFENDERS

Offender and Offense 

Characteristics..................................18

Recidivism Findings...........................21

Robbery Offenders............................27

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Four

VIOLENT 

PRIOR OFFENDERS

Offender and Offense 

Characteristics..................................30

Recidivism Findings...........................33

ii

Chapter Five

CONCLUSION

Conclusion.........................................40

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Additional Findings.....46

Appendix B: Robbery Offenders......64

Chapter One

 Executive Summary
Chapter One: 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2

The Commission’s Ongoing Recidivism Research

The United States Sentencing Commission1 began studying recidivism 

shortly after the enactment of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (“SRA”). 

The Commission’s March 2016 publication, Recidivism Among Federal 

Offenders: A Comprehensive Overview (“Recidivism Overview Report”), 

discussed the history of the Commission’s studies on recidivism in greater 

detail.2 Recidivism information is central to three of the primary purposes 

of punishment described in the SRA—specific deterrence, incapacitation, 

and rehabilitation—all of which focus on prevention of future crimes through 

correctional intervention. Information about recidivism is also relevant to the 

Commission’s obligation to formulate sentencing policy that “reflect[s], to 

the extent practicable, advancements in knowledge of human behavior as it 

relates to the criminal justice process.”3

 The Commission’s consideration of 

recidivism by federal offenders was also central to its initial work in developing 

the criminal history provisions in the Guidelines Manual.

4

 Additionally, 

public attention to the size of the federal prison population and the costs of 

incarceration5 have highlighted the importance of studying recidivism among 

federal offenders.6 These factors remain important and continue to be a key 

consideration in the Commission’s work.

The Commission’s current recidivism research substantially expands 

on the scope of previous Commission recidivism projects.7

 In addition to a 

different set of offenders—U.S. citizen federal offenders released in 2005—

the project’s study group is much larger than those in previous Commission 

studies. 

This Report: Recidivism Among Violent Offenders

Previous Commission research has shown that violent offenders have 

distinct criminal history and recidivism characteristics. The Commission’s 

2016 Report To The Congress: Career Offender Enhancements (“Career 

Offender Report”) showed that career offenders who committed a violent 

instant offense or violent prior offense generally have a more serious and 

extensive criminal history, recidivate at a higher rate, and are more likely to 

commit another violent offense in the future compared to career offenders 

who received the designation based solely on drug trafficking convictions.8

Likewise, the Commission’s 2017 report, The Past Predicts the Future: 

Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders, showed that violent 

offenders generally recidivate more quickly and at a higher rate compared to 

most other offenders.9

 

These findings prompted the Commission to study federal offenders who 

engaged in violent criminal conduct in greater detail. This report provides 

a comprehensive recidivism analysis of federal offenders who engaged in 

violent criminal conduct as part of their instant federal offense or during prior 

criminal activity. This study identified two groups of violent offenders: (1) 

2,596 federal offenders who engaged in violent criminal conduct as part of their 

instant federal offense (“violent instant offenders”);10 and, (2) 7,408 offenders 

who were not categorized as violent offenders based on their instant federal 

offense, but who had been arrested for a violent offense in their past (“violent 

prior offenders”).11 Taken together, these 10,004 offenders (collectively, the 

“violent offenders”) are analyzed in comparison to 15,427 federal offenders 

who had not engaged in violent conduct during the instant federal offense 

and who were never arrested for a violent crime in their past (“non-violent 

offenders”).12 Both the violent and non-violent offenders were originally 

sentenced for their instant federal offense between fiscal year 1991 and the first 

quarter of fiscal year 2006.13 All of the offenders in this report were released 

from federal custody in calendar year 2005.14 

This chapter summarizes the key findings and explains the methodology 

used in the report. Chapter Two provides detailed information about the 

violent offenders and their recidivism characteristics compared to nonviolent offenders. Chapter Three provides detailed information about the first 

subgroup of violent offenders—the “violent instant offenders”—and their 

recidivism characteristics. Chapter Four provides detailed information about 

the second subgroup of violent offenders—“violent prior offenders”—and 

their recidivism characteristics. Chapter Five concludes by reviewing the key 

findings. 
3

Key Findings

Consistent with the Commission’s previous research, this report shows that 

offenders who engaged in violent criminal activity—whether during the instant 

federal offense or as part of prior criminal conduct—generally recidivated 

at a higher rate, more quickly, and for more serious crimes than non-violent 

offenders. 

Key findings of the Commission’s study of recidivism among violent 

offenders are:

•	 A substantial number of the 25,431 U.S. offenders released in calendar 

year 2005—39.3 percent—engaged in violent criminal activity as part 

of their instant federal offense or prior criminal conduct. 

•	 Violent offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent offenders. 

Over 60 percent (63.8%) of violent offenders recidivated by being 

rearrested15 for a new crime or for a violation of supervision conditions. 

This compares to less than 40 percent (39.8%) of non-violent offenders 

who were rearrested during the follow-up period. 

•	 Violent offenders recidivated more quickly than non-violent offenders. 

Of those violent offenders who recidivated, the median time from release 

to the first recidivism event was 18 months. Comparatively, the median 

time from release to the first recidivism event for non-violent offenders 

was 24 months. 

•	 Violent offenders recidivated for more serious crimes than non-violent 

offenders. Over one-fourth (28.4%) of the violent offenders who recidivated 

had assault as their most serious new charge, followed by public order 

crimes (15.6%) and drug trafficking (11.1%). Of the non-violent offenders 

who recidivated, public order crimes were the most common new charge 

(20.9%), followed by assault (17.9%) and drug trafficking (12.0%). 

•	 Violent offenders have higher recidivism rates than non-violent offenders in 

every Criminal History Category, however, the difference in recidivism rates 

between violent and non-violent offenders is most pronounced in the lower 

Criminal History Categories and among offenders designated as career 

offenders or armed career criminals. 

•	 Recidivism rates for violent offenders in every age group at the time of 

release from custody were higher than the rates for non-violent offenders. 

Violent offenders recidivated at twice the rate of non-violent offenders 

among those released after age 40. 

•	 Analyzed separately, violent instant offenders and violent prior offenders 

both recidivated at a higher rate and for more serious crimes than nonviolent offenders. 

Non-Violent 

Offenders

60.7%

(n=15,427)

Violent Instant 

Offenders

10.2%

(n=2,596)

Violent Prior 

Offenders

29.1%

(n=7,408)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission 

excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum 

to 100.0% due to rounding.

Non-Violent Offenders

60.7%

(n=15,427)

Violent Offenders

39.3%

(n=10,004)

Figure 1.1. Violent and Non-Violent Offenders Released in Calendar Year 2005
Chapter One: 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4

Measures of Recidivism and Methodology

Defining and Measuring Recidivism

Recidivism “refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after 

the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime.”16

Measuring recidivism informs decision-making about issues such as pretrial 

detention, appropriate sentence type and length, prisoner classification, prison 

programming, and offender supervision in the community. It also allows 

policymakers an opportunity to evaluate the performance of the criminal 

justice system as a whole.17

Recidivism is typically measured by criminal acts that resulted in the 

rearrest, reconviction, and/or reincarceration of the offender over a specified 

period of time. These are the three recidivism measures used in this report, but 

the report primarily relies on the first— rearrest—with additional data regarding 

reconviction and reincarceration reported in Appendix A.18 Providing data 

about multiple measures of recidivism allows users to select the performance 

measure best suited to their outcome of interest.

Violent Offenders

n=10,004

Non-Violent Offenders

n=15,427

Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 63.8% 40.6% 34.2% 39.8% 23.3% 18.5%

Median Time to Recidivism Event 18 Months 27 Months 26 Months 24 Months 32 Months 29 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 2 1 1 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(28.4%, n=1,813)

Assault

(17.4%, n=707)

Other Public Order

(24.7%, n=843)

Other Public Order

(20.9%, n=1,283)

Other Public Order 

(17.8%, n=637)

Other Public Order

(27.3%, n=777)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Table 1.1. Overview of Violent and Non-Violent Offenders 
5

Rearrest classifies a person as a recidivist if he or she has been arrested for 

a new crime after being released into the community directly on probation or 

after serving a term of imprisonment. Rearrest also includes arrests for alleged 

violations of supervised release, probation, or state parole. The number of 

rearrests in the Commission’s analysis is based on the number of unique arrest 

dates, regardless of the number of individual charges arising from a single 

arrest event. Thus, if an offender was arrested on a single occasion for both 

driving under the influence and possession of cocaine, that arrest date would 

constitute a single rearrest event.

Reconviction classifies a person as a recidivist if an arrest resulted in a 

subsequent court conviction.19 Violations and revocations of supervision are not 

included in reconvictions because no formal prosecution occurred. Although 

states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent 

federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an 

arrest.20 Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report and lead to 

an undercounting of reconvictions because missing dispositions for rearrests 

are treated as if reconviction and reincarceration did not occur. 

Reincarceration classifies a person as a recidivist if a conviction 

or revocation resulted in a prison or jail sentence as punishment. The 

reincarceration measure counts offenders who were reported returned 

to the Federal Bureau of Prisons, state prison, or local jail for any term of 

incarceration. Incomplete criminal records also create missing information 

about reincarceration.21

Methodology of This Recidivism Study

As explained above, this report examines violent federal offenders 

identified from two distinct categories: (1) offenders with a violent instant 

offense,22 and (2) offenders with a non-violent instant offense, but who had 

been arrested for a violent offense in their criminal history. This approach 

allows for a comprehensive analysis of violent offenders determined by a 

combination of the offense or offenses of conviction, surrounding conduct,

and criminal history. For purposes of this analysis, violent prior offenses 

include those offenses classified as one of the following: murder, attempted 

murder, unspecified manslaughter, non-negligent manslaughter, kidnapping, 

rape, statutory rape, fondling, other/unspecified sexual assault, armed robbery, 

unspecified robbery, unarmed robbery, sodomy, aggravated assault, assaulting 

a police officer, simple assault, unspecified assault, intimidation, blackmail/

extortion, hit and run with bodily injury, child abuse, arson, and rioting.23

In undertaking its current recidivism research, the Commission selected a 

follow-up period of eight years. It considered all recidivism events (including 

felonies, misdemeanors, and “technical” violations of the conditions of 

supervision), except minor traffic offenses, which occurred over that eightyear period. Although this report includes summary findings using all three 

measures (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration), it primarily relies on 

rearrest data in providing more detailed information about the recidivism of 

violent offenders. 

Specifically, this report provides information on the length of time to the 

first recidivism event for those offenders who recidivated. Studying the timing 

of recidivism can help in understanding the process of desistance, as some 

offenders may be able to remain in the community for a considerable time 

before recidivating, while others recidivate very quickly. The report also 

provides the median number of recidivism events and the most serious type of 

post-release offense among those who recidivated. The report then analyzes 

the association between recidivism and criminal history, sentence length, and 

age. This information is reported first for violent offenders as a whole and then 

for violent instant offenders and violent prior offenders separately. 

Chapter Two

Violent and Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Two: 

VIOLENT AND NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS

8

This chapter analyzes and compares the offender characteristics and 

recidivism rates of the 10,004 violent offenders and 15,427 non-violent 

offenders. Over the eight-year study period, violent offenders recidivated at 

a rate of 63.8 percent compared to non-violent offenders who recidivated at a 

rate of 39.8 percent.

Offender and Offense Characteristics

The 10,004 violent offenders represent 39.3 percent of the 25,431 federal 

offenders who were released in calendar year 2005. The 15,427 non-violent 

offenders represent 60.7 percent of the 25,431 federal offenders who were 

released in calendar year 2005. 

Demographics

The demographic characteristics of violent and non-violent offenders 

differ in several respects. Black offenders constitute the largest group of 

violent offenders (44.2%), while White offenders were the largest group of 

non-violent offenders (47.3%). The second largest group of violent offenders 

were White (38.2%); followed by Hispanic offenders (12.5%). Whereas, the 

second largest group of non-violent offenders were Black (27.2%) followed 

by Hispanic offenders (21.2%).24 Violent offenders and non-violent offenders 

were both predominately male. Females constitute less than ten percent of the 

violent offenders (8.4%) compared to almost one-quarter of the non-violent 

offenders (24.8%).

Violent Offenders

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 3,813 38.2%

Black 4,418 44.2%

Hispanic 1,245 12.5%

Other 518 5.2%

Gender N %

Male 9,159 91.6%

Female 843 8.4%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizen 10,004 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 32 Years

Median Age at Release 36 Years

Non-Violent Offenders

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 7,286 47.3%

Black 4,199 27.2%

Hispanic 3,267 21.2%

Other 661 4.3%

Gender N %

Male 11,599 75.2%

Female 3,821 24.8%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizen 15,427 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 33 Years

Median Age at Release 36 Years

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary 

to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Tables 2.1 & 2.2. Demographic Characteristics
9

The median age was similar for both violent offenders and non-violent 

offenders at the time of sentencing and release. At the time of sentencing, the 

median age for violent offenders was 32 years and for non-violent offenders 

was 33 years. The median age at the time of release from prison for both 

groups was 36 years.

Sentences Originally Imposed

A greater percentage of violent offenders were sentenced to a term of 

imprisonment than non-violent offenders.25 Over 90 percent (90.1%) of violent 

offenders were sentenced to at least some term of imprisonment compared to 

just over three-quarters (75.5%) of non-violent offenders. 

Of those offenders sentenced to a term of imprisonment, violent offenders 

received longer sentences than non-violent offenders. Of the violent offenders 

sentenced to prison, 15.8 percent received a sentence of 120 months or more 

Up to 24 Mos.

32.3%

(n=3,746)

24 to 59 Mos.

39.1%

(n=4,524)

60 to 119 Mos.

19.1%

(n=2,208)

120 Mos. 

or More

9.5%

(n=1,104)

Up to 24 Mos.

19.1%

(n=1,719)

24 to 59 Mos.

39.0%

(n=3,499)

60 to 119 Mos.

26.1%

(n=2,344)

120 Mos. or More

15.8%

(n=1,417)

Length of Sentence

Violent Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary 

to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Prison

75.5%

(n=11,590)

Probation

24.5%

(n=3,769)

Prison

90.1%

(n=8,985)

Probation

9.9%

(n=985)

Sentence Type

Violent Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders

Figures 2.1 & 2.2. Sentences Imposed on Violent and Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Two: 

VIOLENT AND NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS

10

compared to 9.5 percent of non-violent offenders. Over one-quarter (26.1%) 

of violent offenders received a sentence of 60 to 119 months compared to 

less than 20 percent of non-violent offenders (19.1%). A smaller percentage 

of violent offenders received terms of imprisonment of less than 24 months 

than non-violent offenders. Less than 20 percent (19.1%) of violent offenders 

received a sentence of less than 24 months compared to almost one-third of 

non-violent offenders (32.3%). 

Criminal History

The guidelines establish a method for evaluating an offender’s criminal 

history by assigning points to some prior criminal convictions and adjudications 

of juvenile delinquency based on the length of the sentence imposed for those 

offenses. An offender’s past convictions are assigned one, two, or three points 

based on the nature of the offense and the sentence.26 These point assignments 

are designed to reflect the seriousness of the prior crime of conviction. Through 

this process the court calculates an offender’s “criminal history score.” The 

offender is then assigned to one of six Criminal History Categories (CHCs) for 

the purpose of determining the sentencing guideline range in the Guidelines 

Manual.

27

Violent offenders have more serious criminal histories than non-violent 

offenders. Only one-fifth (20.2%) of violent offenders were assigned zero 

criminal history points compared to over one-half of non-violent offenders 

(55.8%). Nearly one-fifth (18.0%) of violent offenders accrued more than ten 

criminal history points, compared to only 4.0 percent of non-violent offenders. 

20.2%

10.6% 5.8% 8.1% 7.4% 5.4% 7.3% 4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 3.1%

18.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

0

(n=2,008)

1

(n=1,050)

2

(n=581)

3

(n=810)

4

(n=737)

5

(n=537)

6

(n=727)

7

(n=415)

8

(n=471)

9

(n=518)

10

(n=312)

More

than 10

(n=1,789) Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 2.3. Criminal History Points of Violent Offenders

55.8%

12.5%

4.4% 6.7% 4.1% 3.3% 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.0% 4.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

0

(n=8,592)

1

(n=1,923)

2

(n=670)

3

(n=1,028)

4

(n=624)

5

(n=504)

6

(n=550)

7

(n=278)

8

(n=270)

9

(n=190)

10

(n=151)

More

than 10

(n=611) Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 2.4. Criminal History Points of Non-Violent Offenders

30.7%

14.1% 19.6%

12.9% 7.8% 10.0% 5.0%

68.4%

11.0% 10.8%

4.5% 2.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Violent Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

n=3,057 n=10,524 n=1,399 n=1,685 n=1,948 n=1,663 n=1,278 n=698 n=778 n=330 n=992 n=352 n=493 n=140

Figure 2.5. Criminal History Category of Violent and Non-Violent Offenders
11

Accordingly, a greater percentage of violent offenders were placed in higher 

Criminal History Categories than non-violent offenders. Less than one-third 

of violent offenders (30.7%) were in CHC I, compared to more than two-thirds 

of non-violent offenders (68.4%). Almost one-third of violent offenders were 

placed in CHC IV (12.9%), CHC V (7.8%), or CHC VI (10.0%) compared to 

less than ten percent (8.9%) of non-violent offenders in CHC IV (4.5%), CHC 

V (2.1%), or CHC VI (2.3%) based on the accumulation of criminal history 

points. A greater percentage of violent offenders (5.0%) were career offenders 

or armed career criminals than non-violent offenders (0.9%) and were typically 

placed in CHC VI on that basis.28 

Recidivism Findings

Rearrest, Reincarceration, and Reconviction

Measured by rearrest, violent offenders recidivated at a higher rate than 

non-violent offenders, by a margin of almost 25 percentage points. The rearrest 

rate for all violent offenders was 63.8 percent compared to a rate of less than 40 

percent for non-violent offenders (39.8%). As expected, the violent offenders 

were reconvicted at a higher rate (40.6%) than non-violent offenders (23.3%), 

and violent offenders were reincarcerated at a higher rate (34.2%) than nonviolent offenders (18.5%). 

The findings that follow use rearrest rates to measure recidivism. Appendix 

A contains more detailed information using all three measures of recidivism. 

Violent Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 63.8% 40.6% 34.2% 39.8% 23.3% 18.5%

Median Time to Recidivism Event 18 Months 27 Months 26 Months 24 Months 32 Months 29 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 2 1 1 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(28.4%, n=1,813)

Assault

(17.4%, n=707)

Other Public Order

(24.7%, n=843)

Other Public Order

(20.9%, n=1,283)

Other Public Order 

(17.8%, n=637)

Other Public Order

(27.3%, n=777)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Table 2.3. Recidivism Rates for Violent and Non-Violent Offenders 
Chapter Two: 

VIOLENT AND NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS

12

Time to First Recidivism Event

The length of time from an offender’s release from 

prison to his or her first recidivism event can be useful in 

distinguishing offenders who recidivate early from those 

who eventually recidivate but are apparently crime-free 

for a longer interval. Tracking the length of time between 

release from prison until the first recidivism event can 

also help policymakers determine an appropriate period 

of supervision after release, for example, by extending 

supervision through the peak crime-prone interval. 

Violent offenders recidivated more quickly than 

non-violent offenders, on average, recidivating six 

months faster than non-violent offenders. The median 

time to recidivism (among those violent offenders who 

recidivated) was 18 months, meaning that one-half of the 

violent offenders were rearrested within 18 months of 

their release, while the other half recidivated more than 

18 months after release. Comparatively, the median time 

to recidivism for non-violent offenders was 24 months. 

Among those who recidivated, the median number of 

recidivism events (events occurring on separate days) was 

two for both violent offenders and non-violent offenders. 

During the first year following release into the 

community, 24.2 percent of violent offenders in the study 

recidivated for the first time. Each subsequent year 

fewer people were rearrested for the first time than in 

the previous year. For example, 13.7 percent of the total 

violent offenders were rearrested in the second year, and 

8.1 percent of the total violent offenders were rearrested 

for the first time in the third year. Only 1.7 percent of 

violent offenders who were not previously arrested 

recidivated for the first time in the eighth year. 

Violent Offenders

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year 2,423 24.2% 24.2%

Two Years 1,366 13.7% 37.9%

Three Years 810 8.1% 46.0%

Four Years 545 5.5% 51.4%

Five Years 458 4.6% 56.0%

Six Years 350 3.5% 59.5%

Seven Years 262 2.6% 62.1%

Eight Years 170 1.7% 63.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. Yearly percentages may not add to cumulative percentages at each step in this table from year one to year eight due to rounding.

Non-Violent Offenders

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year 1,800 11.7% 11.7%

Two Years 1,307 8.5% 20.1%

Three Years 864 5.6% 25.7%

Four Years 652 4.2% 30.0%

Five Years 478 3.1% 33.1%

Six Years 418 2.7% 35.8%

Seven Years 333 2.2% 37.9%

Eight Years 291 1.9% 39.8%

Tables 2.4 & 2.5. Time to Rearrest

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Violent Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

Median Time to First Rearrest:

Violent Offenders:

18 Months

Non-Violent Offenders:

24 Months Violent Offenders Rearrest, 63.8 %

Non-Violent Offenders Rearrest, 39.8 %

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 2.6. Time to First Rearrest of Violent and Non-Violent Offenders 
13

Non-violent offenders followed a similar pattern 

but generally recidivated at a lower rate than violent 

offenders. During the first year following release into 

the community, 11.7 percent of non-violent offenders 

recidivated for the first time. The recidivism rate fell to 

8.5 percent of the total non-violent offenders in the second 

year and 5.6 percent of the total non-violent offenders in 

the third year. Only 1.9 percent of non-violent offenders 

who were not previously arrested recidivated for the first 

time in the eighth year.

Most Serious Recidivism Event

The Commission adapted a widely used ranking of 

offense types to evaluate the seriousness of the offenses 

for which offenders were rearrested.29 Violent offenders 

were rearrested for more serious crimes than non-violent 

offenders. When considering only the single most serious 

offense type of all violent offenders who recidivated, 

assault was the most common charge, constituting the most 

serious new charge for 28.4 percent, followed by public 

order crimes (15.6%) and drug trafficking (11.1%).30 In 

comparison, for non-violent offenders who recidivated, 

public order crimes (20.9%) and assault (17.9%) were the 

most common new charges.

A higher percentage of violent offenders were 

rearrested for robbery (7.2%), rape (2.2%), or homicide 

(1.9%) compared to non-violent offenders who were 

rearrested for those crimes. Comparatively, less than 

two percent of non-violent offenders were rearrested for 

robbery (1.9%) or rape (1.5%), and less than one percent 

of non-violent offenders were rearrested for homicide 

(0.9%). 

1.9% 2.2%

7.2%

28.4%

1.2%

11.1%

2.7%

7.1% 3.7% 2.3% 6.4% 2.5% 1.1%

6.0%

0.3%

15.6%

0.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 2.7. Most Serious Offense at Rearrest of Violent Offenders

0.9% 1.5% 1.9%

17.9%

1.4%

12.0%

2.4%

10.0% 5.9% 2.3%

8.2%

3.1% 1.2%

9.0%

1.1%

20.9%

0.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Figure 2.8. Most Serious Offense at Rearrest of Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Two: 

VIOLENT AND NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS

14

Recidivism and Criminal History

The relationship between an offender’s prior criminal record and recidivism 

has been recognized by the Commission since its inception, as discussed 

in Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual.

31 The Commission evaluated 

extant empirical research analyzing recidivism and career criminal behavior 

when formulating the criminal history scoring system, and recent research 

has confirmed the strength of that relationship.32 As the Guidelines Manual 

explains, in order “to protect the public from further crimes of the particular 

offender, the likelihood of recidivism and future criminal behavior must be 

considered.”33 

Recidivism rates for both violent offenders and non-violent offenders were 

strongly associated with total criminal history points, which is consistent with 

the Commission’s prior research.34 Among violent offenders, 40.6 percent 

with zero criminal history points recidivated within eight years compared to 

82.9 percent of violent offenders with more than ten criminal history points. 

Each additional criminal history point was generally associated with a higher 

rate of recidivism, even if the recidivism rate did not always increase evenly 

from one criminal history point to the next.

Because the number of criminal history points determines the CHC to 

which an offender is assigned, recidivism rates are also associated with the 

CHC. That is, the higher the CHC, the higher the recidivism rate. Recidivism 

rates among violent offenders ranged from a low of 44.5 percent for those 

who were in CHC I to a high of 85.6 percent for those who were in CHC VI 

based on their accumulation of criminal history points. Violent offenders who 

were classified as career offenders or armed career criminals35 recidivated at 

a rate (75.1%) similar to the rate for violent offenders in CHC IV (77.2%), 

but considerably lower than the rate for violent offenders placed in CHC VI 

(85.6%) based on accumulation of criminal history points alone. 

44.5%

60.1%

67.3%

77.2% 80.1%

85.6%

75.1%

30.7%

49.4%

58.6%

70.2%

73.3%

81.8%

50.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Violent Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

n=3,057 n=10,524 n=1,399 n=1,685 n=1,948 n=1,663 n=1,278 n=698 n=778 n=330 n=992 n=352 n=493 n=140

Figure 2.9. Rearrest Rates for Violent and Non-Violent Offenders by Criminal 

History Category
15

Violent offenders have higher recidivism rates than non-violent offenders 

in every CHC. The difference in recidivism rates is most pronounced at the 

lowest CHCs. In CHC I, the difference in recidivism rates is 13.8 percentage 

points between the two groups (44.5% for violent offenders compared to 

30.7% for non-violent offenders). However, as CHC increases, the recidivism 

rates between violent offenders and non-violent offenders begin to converge. 

Beginning in CHC IV, the difference in recidivism rates is reduced to seven 

percentage points between the two groups (77.2% for violent offenders 

compared to 70.2% for non-violent offenders), while in CHC VI the difference 

in recidivism rates is 3.8 percentage points (85.6% for violent offenders 

compared to 81.8% for non-violent offenders). 

Consistent with the Commission’s findings in the Career Offender Report, 

violent offenders who were career offenders or armed career criminals had 

substantially higher recidivism rates than non-violent offenders who received 

those designations.36 Over three-quarters (75.1%) of violent offenders who 

were career offenders or armed career criminals recidivated compared to half 

(50.0%) of the non-violent career offenders or armed career criminals. 

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

Violent offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent offenders 

regardless of the length of sentence imposed, but the association between 

sentence length and rate of recidivism among both violent and non-violent 

offenders is less clear. Violent offenders sentenced to the shortest terms of 

imprisonment (less than 24 months) recidivated at a rate (63.9%) comparable 

to violent offenders sentenced to the longest terms of imprisonment of 120 

months or more (61.3%). There was no apparent difference in the recidivism 

rates for violent offenders sentenced to 24 to 59 months (67.0%) compared to 

violent offenders sentenced to 60 to 119 months (66.2%). 

Likewise, non-violent offenders sentenced to the shortest terms of 

imprisonment (less than 24 months) recidivated at a rate (41.1%) comparable 

to non-violent offenders sentenced to the longest terms of imprisonment of 120 

months or more (39.6%). There was no apparent difference in the recidivism 

rates for non-violent offenders sentenced to 24 to 59 months (44.0%) compared 

to non-violent offenders sentenced to 60 to 119 months (44.1%). 

63.9% 67.0% 66.2%

61.3%

41.1% 44.0% 44.1%

39.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up to 24 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

Violent Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=1,719 n=3,746 n=3,499 n=4,524 n=2,344 n=2,208 n=1,417 n=1,104

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 2.10. Rearrest Rates for Violent and Non-Violent Offenders by Length of 

Imprisonment
Chapter Two: 

VIOLENT AND NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS

16

Recidivism and Age

Violent offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent offenders 

in every age group at the time of release from prison, and the gap between 

the two groups widens as age at release increases. Violent offenders who 

were the youngest at release maintain the highest recidivism rates. Violent 

offenders under age 26 recidivated at a rate (77.2%) similar to the rate for 

violent offenders age 26 to 30 at the time of release (76.0%). These recidivism 

rates are considerably higher than the rates for non-violent offenders in the 

same age groups. Non-violent offenders under age 26 and offenders age 26 to 

30 at the time of release recidivated at a rate of 61.9 percent and 52.8 percent. 

Recidivism rates for violent offenders were relatively high across age 

groups and did not decline as rapidly as the rates for non-violent offenders 

in the older age groups. This result for violent offenders is not consistent 

with the relationship between age at time of release and recidivism rates for 

all federal offenders discussed in the Commission’s previous publication, 

Effects of Age on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders,

37 and prior studies, 

which have repeatedly shown a more precipitous decline in recidivism rates 

as age increases.38 For offenders 41 to 50 years old at the time of release, the 

recidivism rate for violent offenders (60.4%) is more than double the rate for 

non-violent offenders (29.8%). This substantial difference in recidivism rates 

persists for the oldest age group. Over one-third (36.4%) of violent offenders 

released after the age of 50 recidivated—this rate remains more than twice as 

high as the rate for non-violent offenders released after age 50 (15.2%). 

77.2% 76.0%

67.5%

64.1%

60.4%

36.4%

61.9%

52.8%

45.4%

37.6%

29.8%

15.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 26 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 Older than 50

Violent Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=1,037 n=2,347 n=1,764 n=2,561 n=2,044 n=2,540 n=1,583 n=2,179 n=2,286 n=3,265 n=1,273 n=2,507

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 2.11. Rearrest Rates for Violent and Non-Violent Offenders by Age at Release
Recidivism Rates

Chapter Three

Violent Instant Offenders
Chapter Three: 

VIOLENT INSTANT OFFENDERS

18

This chapter analyzes the offender characteristics and recidivism rates 

among the 2,596 violent instant offenders—those whose instant federal 

offense involved violence. It discusses the characteristics of the violent 

instant offenders in the study and their recidivist behavior compared to nonviolent offenders. Over the eight-year study period, violent instant offenders 

recidivated at a rate of 60.2 percent.

Offender and Offense Characteristics

The 2,596 violent instant offenders represent 10.2 percent of the 25,431 

federal offenders who were released in calendar year 2005 and analyzed in the 

Recidivism Overview Report. 

Among the violent instant offenders in this group, robbery was the most 

common offense type (46.1% of the 2,596 offenders). “Other” violent offenses, 

including kidnapping, blackmail/extortion, child abuse, arson, and rioting, 

among others, constitute 32.4 percent of the offenses, followed by assault 

(11.1%), sexual abuse (7.2%), and homicide (3.2%). 

Demographics

The demographic characteristics of violent instant offenders and nonviolent offenders differ in several respects. Almost one-half of the violent 

instant offenders (46.5%) and non-violent offenders (47.3%) were White. 

One-third (33.0%) of violent instant offenders were Black, while slightly more 

than one-quarter of non-violent offenders were Black (27.2%). Less than ten 

percent (8.1%) of violent instant offenders were Hispanic, while over onefifth of non-violent offenders were Hispanic (21.2%). A larger percentage 

of violent instant offenders (12.4%) were of another race compared to nonviolent offenders (4.3%). 

Violent Instant Offenders

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 1,207 46.5%

Black 856 33.0%

Hispanic 210 8.1%

Other 322 12.4%

Gender N %

Male 2,421 93.3%

Female 175 6.7%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizen 2,596 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 31 Years

Median Age at Release 36 Years

Non-Violent Offenders

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 7,286 47.3%

Black 4,199 27.2%

Hispanic 3,267 21.2%

Other 661 4.3%

Gender N %

Male 11,599 75.2%

Female 3,821 24.8%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizen 15,427 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 33 Years

Median Age at Release 36 Years

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Tables 3.1 & 3.2. Demographic Characteristics
19

Violent instant offenders were predominantly male (93.3%). Females 

constitute less than 7 percent (6.7%) of violent instant offenders compared to 

almost one-quarter (24.8%) of non-violent offenders.

On average, violent instant offenders were slightly younger than nonviolent offenders at the time of sentencing, but offenders from both groups 

were the same age at the time of release. The median age for violent instant 

offenders at sentencing was 31 years compared to 33 years for non-violent 

offenders. The median age at the time of release for both violent instant 

offenders and non-violent offenders was 36 years. 

Sentences Originally Imposed

A greater percentage of violent instant offenders were sentenced to a term 

of imprisonment than non-violent offenders.39 Over 90 percent (93.5%) of 

violent instant offenders were sentenced to at least some term of imprisonment 

compared to just over three-quarters (75.5%) of non-violent offenders. 

Prison

93.5%

(n=2,415)

Probation

6.5%

(n=169)

Sentence Type

Prison

75.5%

(n=11,590)

Probation

24.5%

(n=3,769)

Violent Instant Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Up to 24 Mos.

32.3%

(n=3,746)

24 to 59 Mos.

39.1%

(n=4,524)

60 to 119 Mos.

19.1%

(n=2,208)

120 Mos. or 

More

9.5%

(n=1,104)

Up to 24 Mos.

10.7%

(n=259)

24 to 59 Mos.

39.3%

(n=948)

60 to 119 Mos.

31.7%

(n=765)

120 Mos. or More

18.3%

(n=442)

Length of Sentence

Violent Instant Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders

Figures 3.1 & 3.2. Sentences Imposed on Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Three: 

VIOLENT INSTANT OFFENDERS

20

Of those offenders sentenced to a term of imprisonment, 

violent instant offenders received longer sentences than 

non-violent offenders. Of the violent instant offenders 

sentenced to prison, nearly one-fifth (18.3%) received a 

sentence of 120 months or more compared to 9.5% of nonviolent offenders. Almost one-third (31.7%) of violent 

instant offenders received a sentence of 60 to 119 months 

compared to less than 20 percent of non-violent offenders 

(19.1%). It follows that a smaller percentage of violent 

instant offenders received shorter terms of imprisonment 

than non-violent offenders. Slightly more than ten percent 

(10.7%) of violent instant offenders received a sentence of 

less than 24 months compared to almost one-third of nonviolent offenders (32.3%).

Criminal History

Violent instant offenders have a more serious criminal 

history than non-violent offenders. One-third (33.3%) 

of violent instant offenders were assigned zero criminal 

history points compared to over one-half of non-violent 

offenders (55.8%). Fifteen percent (15.4%) of violent 

instant offenders accrued more than ten criminal history 

points compared to only 4.0 percent of non-violent 

offenders. 

33.3%

11.1%

5.1% 7.0% 5.9% 3.9% 4.9% 3.3% 3.2% 4.7% 2.1%

15.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=863)

1

(n=286)

2

(n=131)

3

(n=182)

4

(n=153)

5

(n=101)

6

(n=128)

7

(n=86)

8

(n=84)

9

(n=122)

10

(n=55)

More than

10

(n=398)

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 3.3. Criminal History Points of Violent Instant Offenders

44.7%

12.2% 14.4%

9.6%

5.5% 7.0% 6.6%

68.4%

11.0% 10.8%

4.5% 2.1% 2.3% 0.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Violent Instant Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=1,144 n=10,524 n=313 n=1,685 n=369 n=1,663 n=247 n=698 n=141 n=330 n=178 n=352 n=170 n=140

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 3.4. Criminal History Category of Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders
21

Accordingly, a greater percentage of violent instant offenders were placed 

in higher Criminal History Categories than non-violent offenders. Less than 

one-half of violent instant offenders (44.7%) were in CHC I compared to 

more than two-thirds of non-violent offenders (68.4%). Almost one-quarter 

of violent instant offenders were placed in CHC IV (9.6%), CHC V (5.5%), 

or CHC VI (7.0%) compared to less than ten percent (8.9%) of non-violent 

offenders in CHC IV (4.5%), CHC V (2.1%), or CHC VI (2.3%) based on 

the number of criminal history points. A greater percentage of violent instant 

offenders (6.6%) were career offenders or armed career criminals than nonviolent offenders (0.9%) and were typically placed in CHC VI on that basis.40 

Recidivism Findings

Rearrest, Reincarceration, and Reconviction

Violent instant offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent 

offenders. Measured by rearrest, violent instant offenders recidivated at 

a higher rate than non-violent offenders by a margin of over 20 percentage 

points. The rearrest rate for all violent instant offenders was 60.2 percent 

compared to a rate of less than forty percent for non-violent offenders (39.8%). 

As expected, the violent instant offenders were reconvicted at a higher rate 

(38.4%) than non-violent offenders (23.3%), and violent instant offenders were 

reincarcerated at a higher rate (34.3%) than non-violent offenders (18.5%). 

Violent Instant Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 60.2% 38.4% 34.3% 39.8% 23.3% 18.5%

Median Time to Recidivism Event 17 Months 23 Months 22 Months 24 Months 32 Months 29 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 2 2 1 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(23.6%, n=368)

Assault

(19.2%, n=191)

Other Public Order

(27.9%, n=248)

Other Public Order

(20.9%, n=1,283)

Other Public Order 

(17.8%, n=637)

Other Public Order

(27.3%, n=777)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Table 3.3. Recidivism Rates for Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Three: 

VIOLENT INSTANT OFFENDERS

22

Time to First Recidivism Event

Violent instant offenders recidivated more quickly 

than non-violent offenders, on average, recidivating seven 

months faster than non-violent offenders. The median 

time to recidivism (among those who recidivated) was 

17 months for violent instant offenders (compared to 24 

months for non-violent offenders). Among those who 

recidivated, the median number of recidivism events 

(events occurring on separate days) was two for both 

violent instant offenders and non-violent offenders. 

During the first year following release from prison, 

24.3 percent of violent instant offenders in the study 

recidivated for the first time. Each subsequent year fewer 

people were rearrested for the first time than in the previous 

year. For example, 13.1 percent of the total violent instant 

offenders were rearrested in the second year, and 6.9 

percent of the total were rearrested for the first time in the 

third year. Only 1.6 percent of violent instant offenders 

who were not previously arrested recidivated for the first 

time in the eighth year. 

Non-violent offenders followed a similar pattern but 

generally recidivated at a lower rate than violent instant 

offenders. During the first year following release into 

the community, 11.7 percent of non-violent offenders 

recidivated for the first time. The recidivism rate fell to 

8.5 percent of the total non-violent offenders in the second 

year and 5.6 percent of the total non-violent offenders in 

the third year. Only 1.9 percent of non-violent offenders 

who were not previously arrested recidivated for the first 

time in the eighth year.

Violent Instant Offenders

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year 630 24.3% 24.3%

Two Years 339 13.1% 37.3%

Three Years 180 6.9% 44.3%

Four Years 127 4.9% 49.2%

Five Years 106 4.1% 53.2%

Six Years 79 3.0% 56.3%

Seven Years 60 2.3% 58.6%

Eight Years 41 1.6% 60.2%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. Yearly percentages may not add to cumulative percentages at each step in this table from year one to year eight due to rounding.

Non-Violent Offenders

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year 1,800 11.7% 11.7%

Two Years 1,307 8.5% 20.1%

Three Years 864 5.6% 25.7%

Four Years 652 4.2% 30.0%

Five Years 478 3.1% 33.1%

Six Years 418 2.7% 35.8%

Seven Years 333 2.2% 37.9%

Eight Years 291 1.9% 39.8%

Tables 3.4 & 3.5. Time to Rearrest of Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Violent Instant Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders Rearrest, 39.8%

Violent Instant Offenders Rearrest, 60.2%

Median Time to First Rearrest:

Violent Instant Offenders:

17 Months

Non-Violent Offenders:

24 Months

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 3.5. Time to First Rearrest of Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders
23

Most Serious Recidivism Event

Violent instant offenders were rearrested for more serious crimes than 

non-violent offenders. Among the violent instant offenders who recidivated, 

assault was the single most serious new charge for 23.6 percent followed by 

public order crimes (19.4%). In comparison, as shown in Figure 2.8 on page 

13, of the non-violent offenders who recidivated, public order crimes were the 

most common new charge (20.9%) followed by assault (17.9%).

A higher percentage of violent instant offenders were rearrested for robbery 

(15.1%), rape (3.6%), or homicide (1.8%) compared to non-violent offenders 

who were rearrested for those crimes. Comparatively, as shown in Figure 

2.8, less than two percent of non-violent offenders were rearrested for robbery 

(1.9%) or rape (1.5%), and less than one percent of non-violent offenders were 

rearrested for homicide (0.9%). 

1.8% 3.6%

15.1%

23.6%

1.2%

6.1%

2.6%

7.1%

2.6% 2.6% 4.7% 1.9% 1.6%

5.9%

0.2%

19.4%

0.1% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Violent Instant Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 3.6. Most Serious Offense at Rearrest of Violent Instant Offenders
Chapter Three: 

VIOLENT INSTANT OFFENDERS

24

Recidivism and Criminal History

Recidivism rates for violent instant offenders were strongly associated with 

total criminal history points. Among violent instant offenders, 40.1 percent 

with zero criminal history points recidivated within eight years compared to 

82.2 percent of violent instant offenders with more than ten criminal history 

points. 

Recidivism rates among violent instant offenders ranged from a low of 

43.1 percent for those in CHC I to a high of 87.1 percent for those who were 

in CHC VI based on their accumulation of criminal history points. Violent 

instant offenders who were classified as career offenders or armed career 

criminals recidivated at a rate (79.4%) similar to the rate for violent instant 

offenders in CHC IV (79.8%) and CHC V (77.3%), but lower than the rate 

for violent instant offenders in CHC VI (87.1%) based on accumulation of 

criminal history points alone. 

Violent instant offenders have higher recidivism rates than non-violent 

offenders in every CHC, but the difference narrows as CHC increases. The 

difference in recidivism rates is most pronounced at the lowest CHCs. In 

CHC I, the difference in recidivism rates is 12.4 percentage points between the 

two groups (43.1% for violent instant offenders compared to 30.7% for nonviolent offenders). As CHC increases, the recidivism rates between violent 

instant offenders and non-violent offenders begin to converge. In CHC V, the 

difference in recidivism rates is reduced to four percentage points between the 

two groups (77.3% for violent instant offenders compared to 73.3% for nonviolent offenders), while in CHC VI the difference in recidivism rates is 5.3 

percentage points (87.1% for violent instant offenders compared to 81.8% for 

non-violent offenders). 

43.1%

60.7%

70.2%

79.8% 77.3%

87.1%

79.4%

30.7%

49.4%

58.6%

70.2% 73.3%

81.8%

50.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Violent Instant Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=1,144 n=10,524 n=313 n=1,685 n=369 n=1,663 n=247 n=698 n=141 n=330 n=178 n=352 n=170 n=140

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 3.7. Rearrest Rates for Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders by Criminal History Category
25

Violent instant offenders who were career offenders or armed career 

criminals41 had substantially higher recidivism rates than non-violent 

offenders who received those designations. Over three-quarters (79.4%) of 

violent instant offenders who were career offenders or armed career criminals 

recidivated compared to half (50.0%) of the non-violent career offenders or 

armed career criminals. 

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

Violent instant offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent 

offenders regardless of the length of sentence imposed. Among violent 

instant offenders, those who received longer sentences generally recidivated 

at a higher rate. Violent instant offenders sentenced to less than 24 months of 

imprisonment recidivated at the lowest rate (53.7%), while those sentenced 

between 60 and 119 months recidivated at the highest rate (65.0%). The 

recidivism rates for violent instant offenders sentenced to 24 to 59 months 

(60.0%), and those sentenced to 120 months or more of imprisonment (62.2%) 

were similar to each other. 

53.7%

60.0%

65.0% 62.2%

41.1% 44.0% 44.1%

39.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up to 24 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

Violent Instant Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=259 n=3,746 n=948 n=4,524 n=765 n=2,208 n=442 n=1,104

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 3.8. Rearrest Rates for Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders by Length of Imprisonment
Chapter Three: 

VIOLENT INSTANT OFFENDERS

26

Recidivism and Age

Violent instant offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent 

offenders in every age group at the time of release from prison, and the gap 

between the two groups widens as age at release increases. Violent instant 

offenders under age 26 recidivated at a rate (70.8%) similar to the rate for 

violent instant offenders age 26 to 30 at the time of release (69.4%). These 

recidivism rates are considerably higher than the rates for non-violent offenders 

in the same age groups. Non-violent offenders under age 26 and offenders age 

26 to 30 at the time of release recidivated at a rate of 61.9 percent and 52.8 

percent. 

As age at release increases, the difference in recidivism rates between 

violent instant offenders and non-violent offenders widens. Among violent 

instant offenders, recidivism rates remained relatively high across age groups 

and did not decline as rapidly as the rates for non-violent offenders. For 

offenders age 41 to 50 at release, the recidivism rate is almost 30 percentage 

points higher for violent instant offenders (59.3%) compared to non-violent 

offenders (29.8%). This substantial difference in recidivism rates persists 

for the oldest age group. Over one-third (34.5%) of violent instant offenders 

released after the age of 50 recidivated—this is more than twice the rate for 

non-violent offenders released after age 50 (15.2%). 

70.8% 69.4%

61.6% 62.9%

59.3%

34.5%

61.9%

52.8%

45.4%

37.6%

29.8%

15.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 26 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 Older than 50

Violent Instant Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=359 n=2,347 n=441 n=2,561 n=469 n=2,540 n=375 n=2,179 n=599 n=3,265 n=348 n=2,507

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 3.9. Rearrest Rates for Violent Instant and Non-Violent Offenders by Age at Release
27

Robbery Offenders

• Robbery offenders constitute the largest group of violent instant 

offenders (1,196 or 46.1 percent of the 2,596 violent instant 

offenders).

• Robbery offenders recidivated at a higher rate, more quickly, and 

for more serious offenses than did the other 1,400 violent instant 

offenders. Robbery offenders recidivated at a rate of 66.8 percent 

compared to 54.5 percent for all other violent instant offenders.

• Robbery offenders recidivated more quickly than other violent 

instant offenders. The median time to rearrest among those 

robbery offenders who recidivated was 14 months compared to 20 

months for other violent instant offenders.

• Robbery offenders had higher recidivism rates than other violent 

instant offenders in every age group over 30 years old at the time 

of release. 

• Recidivism rates for robbery offenders increased until reaching 

age 50 at the time of release (rising from 66.2% for those released 

under the age of 26 to 72.2% for those released at age 41 through 

50). 

• The recidivism rate for robbery offenders released after age 50 

is almost twice as high as the rate for all other violent instant 

offenders (47.0% compared to 26.9%).42

Robbery Offenders

(n=1,196)

Other Violent Instant Offenders

(n=1,400)

Rearrest Rearrest

Percent 66.8% 54.5%

Median Time to Recidivism Event 14 Months 20 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 3 2

Most Serious Post-Release Event Robbery

(26.2%, n=209)

Assault

(28.4%, n=216)

Table 3.6. Recidivism Rates for Robbery and Other Violent Instant Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that 

were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Robbery offenses include conduct sentenced under the following guideline: §2B3.1 Other 

violent instant offenses include conduct sentenced under the following guidelines: §§2A1.1, 2A1.2, 2A1.3, 2A1.5, 2A2.1, 2A2.2, 2A2.3, 2A2.4, 2A3.1, 2A3.2, 

2A3.3, 2A3.4, 2A4.1, 2A5.1, 2A5.2, 2A5.3, 2A6.1, 2A6.2, 2B3.2, 2D1.9, 2E1.1, 2E1.2, 2E1.3, 2E1.4, 2G1.2, 2G1.3, 2G2.1, 2G2.3, 2G2.6, 2H4.1, 2K1.3, 2K1.4, 2M5.3, 

2M6.1, 2X6.1. An offender was also classified as a violent instant offender if sentenced under certain provisions in §2K2.1 or 18 U.S.C. § 924(c).

Chapter Four

Violent Prior Offenders
Chapter Four: 

VIOLENT PRIOR OFFENDERS

30

This chapter analyzes and compares the offender characteristics and 

recidivism rates of the 7,408 violent prior offenders and 15,427 non-violent 

offenders. These 7,408 offenders were not categorized as violent offenders 

based on their instant federal offense, but had been arrested for a violent 

offense in their criminal history. Over the eight-year study period, violent 

prior offenders recidivated at a rate of 65.1 percent.

Offender and Offense Characteristics

The 7,408 violent prior offenders represent 29.1 percent of the 25,431 

federal offenders who were released in calendar year 2005 and analyzed in the 

Recidivism Overview Report. 

Demographics

The demographic characteristics of violent prior offenders and non-violent 

offenders differ in several respects. Black offenders constitute the largest 

group of violent prior offenders (48.1%), while White offenders were the 

largest group of non-violent offenders (47.3%). More than one-third of violent 

prior offenders (35.2%) were White, while slightly more than one-quarter of 

non-violent offenders were Black (27.2%). Hispanic offenders were the third 

largest group of both violent prior offenders (14.0%) and non-violent offenders 

(21.2%). 

Violent prior offenders and non-violent offenders were both predominately 

male. Females constitute less than ten percent of the violent prior offenders 

(9.0%) compared to almost one-quarter of the non-violent offenders (24.8%). 

Violent Prior Offenders

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 2,606 35.2%

Black 3,562 48.1%

Hispanic 1,035 14.0%

Other 196 2.7%

Gender N %

Male 6,738 91.0%

Female 668 9.0%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizen 7,408 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 32 Years

Median Age at Release 36 Years

Non-Violent Offenders

Race/Ethnicity N %

White 7,286 47.3%

Black 4,199 27.2%

Hispanic 3,267 21.2%

Other 661 4.3%

Gender N %

Male 11,599 75.2%

Female 3,821 24.8%

Citizenship N %

U.S. Citizen 15,427 100.0%

Age

Median Age at Sentencing 33 Years

Median Age at Release 36 Years

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Tables 4.1 & 4.2. Demographic Characteristics
31

The median age for violent prior offenders at sentencing was 32 years 

compared to 33 years for non-violent offenders. The median age at time of 

release for both groups was the same at 36 years. 

Sentences Originally Imposed

A greater percentage of violent prior offenders were sentenced to a term 

of imprisonment than non-violent offenders.43 Slightly less than 90 percent 

(89.0%) of violent prior offenders were sentenced to at least some term of 

imprisonment compared to just over three-quarters (75.5%) of non-violent 

offenders. 

Of those offenders sentenced to a term of imprisonment, violent prior 

offenders received longer sentences than non-violent offenders. Of the violent 

prior offenders sentenced to prison, 14.9 percent received a sentence of 120 

months or more compared to 9.5 percent of non-violent offenders. Slightly 

less than one-quarter (24.1%) of violent prior offenders received a sentence of 

60 to 119 months compared to less than 20 percent of non-violent offenders 

(19.1%). A smaller percentage of violent prior offenders received shorter terms 

of imprisonment than non-violent offenders—less than one-quarter (22.2%) of 

violent prior offenders received a sentence of less than 24 months compared to 

almost one-third of non-violent offenders (32.3%). 

Up to 24 Mos.

32.3%

(n=3,746)

24 to 59 Mos.

39.1%

(n=4,524)

60 to 119 Mos.

19.1%

(n=2,208)

120 Mos. 

or More

9.5%

(n=1,104)

Up to 24 Mos.

22.2%

(n=1,460)

24 to 59 Mos.

38.9%

(n=2,551)

60 to 119 Mos.

24.1%

(n=1,579)

120 Mos. or More

14.9%

(n=975)

Length of Sentence

Violent Prior Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Prison

75.5%

(n=11,590)

Probation

24.5%

(n=3,769)

Prison

89.0%

(n=6,570)

Probation

11.1%

(n=816)

Sentence Type

Violent Prior Offenders

Non-Violent Offenders

Figures 4.1 & 4.2. Sentences Imposed on Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Four: 

VIOLENT PRIOR OFFENDERS

32

Criminal History

Violent prior offenders have a more serious criminal 

history than non-violent offenders. Fifteen percent 

(15.5%) of violent prior offenders were assigned zero 

criminal history points compared to over one-half of nonviolent offenders (55.8%). Nearly one-fifth (18.9%) of 

violent prior offenders accrued more than ten criminal 

history points, compared to only 4.0 percent of nonviolent offenders. 

Accordingly, a higher percentage of violent prior 

offenders were placed in higher Criminal History 

Categories than non-violent offenders. Slightly more 

than one-quarter of violent prior offenders (25.9%) 

were in CHC I, compared to more than two-thirds of 

non-violent offenders (68.4%). Slightly more than onethird of violent prior offenders were placed in CHC IV 

(14.0%), CHC V (8.6%), or CHC VI (11.0%) compared 

to less than ten percent (8.9%) of non-violent offenders 

in CHC IV (4.5%), CHC V (2.1%), or CHC VI (2.3%) 

based on the accumulation of criminal history points. A 

greater percentage of violent prior offenders (4.4%) were 

career offenders or armed career criminals than nonviolent offenders (0.9%) and were typically placed in 

CHC VI on that basis.44 

15.5%

10.4%

6.1% 8.5% 7.9% 5.9% 8.1%

4.5% 5.3% 5.4% 3.5%

18.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

(n=1,145)

1

(n=764)

2

(n=450)

3

(n=628)

4

(n=584)

5

(n=436)

6

(n=599)

7

(n=329)

8

(n=387)

9

(n=396)

10

(n=257)

More than

10

(n=1,391)

Criminal History Points

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 4.3. Criminal History Points of Violent Prior Offenders

25.9%

14.7%

21.4%

14.0%

8.6% 11.0%

4.4%

68.4%

11.0% 10.8%

4.5% 2.1% 2.3% 0.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Violent Prior Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

n=1,913 n=10,524 n=1,086 n=1,685 n=1,579 n=1,663 n=1,031 n=698 n=637 n=330 n=814 n=352 n=323 n=140

Figure 4.4. Criminal History Category of Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders
33

Recidivism Findings

Rearrest, Reincarceration, and Reconviction

Violent prior offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent 

offenders. Measured by rearrest, violent prior offenders recidivated at a higher 

rate than non-violent offenders by a margin of more than 25 percentage points. 

The rearrest rate for all violent prior offenders was 65.1 percent compared to a 

rate of less than forty percent for non-violent offenders (39.8%). As expected, 

the violent prior offenders were reconvicted at a higher rate (41.3%) than nonviolent offenders (23.3%), and violent prior offenders were reincarcerated at a 

higher rate (34.1%) than non-violent offenders (18.5%). 

Time to First Recidivism Event 

Violent prior offenders recidivated more quickly than non-violent offenders, 

on average recidivating six months faster than non-violent offenders. For 

violent prior offenders, the median time to recidivism (among those violent 

prior offenders who recidivated) was 18 months (compared to 24 months for 

non-violent offenders). Among those who recidivated, the median number of 

recidivism events (events occurring on separate days) was two for both violent 

prior offenders and non-violent offenders. 

Violent Prior Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration Rearrest Reconviction Reincarceration

Percent 65.1% 41.3% 34.1% 39.8% 23.3% 18.5%

Median Time to Recidivism Event 18 Months 28 Months 27 Months 24 Months 32 Months 29 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 2 1 1 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(30.0%, n=1,445)

Assault 

(16.9%, n=516)

Other Public Order

(23.6%, n=595)

Other Public Order

(20.9%, n=1,283)

Other Public Order 

(17.8%, n=637)

Other Public Order

(27.3%, n=777)

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Table 4.3. Recidivism Rates for Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders
Chapter Four: 

VIOLENT PRIOR OFFENDERS

34

As the follow-up period progressed, each year saw 

fewer violent prior offenders recidivate for the first time. 

During the first year following release from prison, 24.2 

percent of violent prior offenders in the study recidivated 

for the first time. Each subsequent year fewer people 

were rearrested for the first time than in the previous 

year. For example, 13.9 percent of the total violent prior 

offenders were rearrested in the second year, and 8.5 

percent of the total were rearrested for the first time in 

the third year. Only 1.7 percent of violent prior offenders 

who were not previously arrested recidivated for the first 

time in the eighth year. 

Non-violent offenders followed a similar pattern but 

generally recidivated at a lower rate than violent prior 

offenders. During the first year following release into 

the community, 11.7 percent of non-violent offenders 

recidivated for the first time. The recidivism rate fell to 

8.5 percent of the total non-violent offenders in the second 

year and 5.6 percent of the total non-violent offenders in 

the third year. Only 1.9 percent of non-violent offenders 

who were not previously arrested recidivated for the first 

time in the eighth year.

Violent Prior Offenders

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year 1,793 24.2% 24.2%

Two Years 1,027 13.9% 38.1%

Three Years 630 8.5% 46.6%

Four Years 418 5.6% 52.2%

Five Years 352 4.8% 57.0%

Six Years 271 3.7% 60.6%

Seven Years 202 2.7% 63.4%

Eight Years 129 1.7% 65.1%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information 

necessary to perform the analysis. Yearly percentages may not add to cumulative percentages at each step in this table from year one to year eight due to rounding.

Non-Violent Offenders

Years After Release N % Cumulative %

One Year 1,800 11.7% 11.7%

Two Years 1,307 8.5% 20.1%

Three Years 864 5.6% 25.7%

Four Years 652 4.2% 30.0%

Five Years 478 3.1% 33.1%

Six Years 418 2.7% 35.8%

Seven Years 333 2.2% 37.9%

Eight Years 291 1.9% 39.8%

Tables 4.4 & 4.5. Time to Rearrest of Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Violent Prior Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

Median Time to First Rearrest:

Violent Prior Offenders:

18 Months

Non-Violent Offenders:

24 Months

Non-Violent Offenders Rearrest, 39.8%

Violent Prior Offenders Rearrest, 65.1%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Figure 4.5. Time to First Rearrest of Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders
35

Most Serious Recidivism Event

Violent prior offenders were rearrested for more serious crimes than nonviolent offenders. Among the violent prior offenders who recidivated, assault 

was the single most common serious new charge for 30.0 percent followed 

by public order crimes (14.3%). In comparison, as shown in Figure 2.8 on 

page 13, for non-violent offenders who recidivated, public order crimes were 

the most common serious new charge for 20.9 percent followed by assault 

(17.9%).

A higher percentage of violent prior offenders (4.7%) were rearrested for 

robbery compared to non-violent offenders (1.9%). Two percent of violent 

prior offenders were rearrested for homicide and less than two percent of 

violent prior offenders were rearrested for rape (1.8%). Comparatively, as 

shown in Figure 2.8, less than two percent of non-violent offenders were 

rearrested for rape (1.5%), and less than one percent of non-violent offenders 

were rearrested for homicide (0.9%). 

2.0% 1.8% 4.7%

30.0%

1.2%

12.7%

2.7%

7.1% 4.1% 2.2%

6.9% 2.7% 1.0%

6.0%

0.4%

14.3%

0.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Violent Prior Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure 4.6. Most Serious Offense at Rearrest of Violent Prior Offenders
Chapter Four: 

VIOLENT PRIOR OFFENDERS

36

Recidivism and Criminal History

Recidivism rates for both violent prior offenders and non-violent offenders 

were associated with total criminal history points. Among violent prior 

offenders, 41.1 percent with zero criminal history points recidivated within 

eight years compared to 83.1 percent of violent prior offenders with more than 

ten criminal history points. 

Recidivism for violent prior offenders was also strongly associated with 

CHC. Recidivism rates among violent prior offenders ranged from a low of 

45.4 percent for those in CHC I and increased to a high of 85.3 percent for 

those who were in CHC VI based on their accumulation of criminal history 

points. 

45.4%

59.9%

66.6%

76.5%

80.7%

85.3%

72.8%

30.7%

49.4%

58.6%

70.2% 73.3%

81.8%

50.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Violent Prior Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

n=1,913 n=10,524 n=1,086 n=1,685 n=1,579 n=1,663 n=1,031 n=698 n=637 n=330 n=814 n=352 n=323 n=140

Figure 4.7. Rearrest Rates for Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders by Criminal History Category

Violent prior offenders have higher recidivism rates than non-violent 

offenders in every CHC. The difference in recidivism rates is most 

pronounced at the lowest CHCs. In CHC I, the difference in recidivism rates 

is approximately 15 percentage points between the two groups (45.4% for 

violent prior offenders compared to 30.7% for non-violent offenders). As CHC 

increases, the recidivism rates between violent prior offenders and non-violent 

offenders begin to converge. In CHC VI, the difference in recidivism rates is 

reduced to less than 4 percentage points between the two groups (85.3% for 

violent prior offenders compared to 81.8% for non-violent offenders). 
37

Violent prior offenders who were career offenders or armed career 

criminals45 had substantially higher recidivism rates than non-violent 

offenders who received those designations. Almost three-quarters (72.8%) of 

violent prior offenders who were career offenders or armed career criminals 

recidivated compared to only half (50.0%) of the non-violent career offenders 

or armed career criminals. 

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed

Violent prior offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-violent 

offenders regardless of the length of imprisonment. Violent prior offenders 

sentenced to the longest terms of imprisonment (120 months or more) had 

a slightly lower recidivism rate (60.9%) than those sentenced to the shortest 

terms of imprisonment (65.8 percent for those sentenced to less than 24 months’ 

imprisonment). Longer sentences result in older ages at release, which may 

contribute to the slightly lower recidivism rate for those sentenced 120 months 

or more of imprisonment. 

65.8%

69.5% 66.8%

60.9%

41.1%

44.0% 44.1%

39.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Up to 24 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

Violent Prior Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=1,460 n=3,746 n=2,551 n=4,524 n=1,579 n=2,208 n=975 n=1,104

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Figure 4.8. Rearrest Rates for Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders by Length of Imprisonment
Chapter Four: 

VIOLENT PRIOR OFFENDERS

38

Recidivism and Age

Violent prior offenders recidivated at a greater rate than non-violent 

offenders in every age group at the time of release from prison, and the gap 

between the two groups widens as age at release increases. Violent prior 

offenders who were the youngest at release maintain the highest recidivism 

rates. Violent prior offenders under age 26 recidivated at a rate (80.5%) 

similar to the rate for violent prior offenders age 26 to 30 at the time of release 

(78.2%). These rates are substantially higher than the recidivism rates for nonviolent offenders in the same age groups. Non-violent offenders under age 26 

and offenders age 26 to 30 at the time of release recidivated at a rate of 61.9 

percent and 52.8 percent. 

80.5% 78.2%

69.2%

64.5%

60.8%

37.1%

61.9%

52.8%

45.4%

37.6%

29.8%

15.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 26 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 Older than 50

Violent Prior Offenders Non-Violent Offenders

n=678 n=2,347 n=1,323 n=2,561 n=1,575 n=2,540 n=1,208 n=2,179 n=1,687 n=3,265 n=925 n=2,507

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure 4.9. Rearrest Rates for Violent Prior and Non-Violent Offenders by Age at Release

As age at release increases, the difference in recidivism rates between 

violent prior offenders and non-violent offenders widens. Among violent prior 

offenders, recidivism rates remained relatively high across age groups and do 

not decline as rapidly as the rates for non-violent offenders. The recidivism 

rates for violent prior offenders released between age 41 and 50 and those 

over 50 is more than double the rate for non-violent offenders in those age 

groups. For offenders age 41 to 50 at release, the recidivism rate is more 

than 30 percentage points higher for violent prior offenders (60.8%) compared 

to non-violent offenders (29.8%). Over one-third (37.1%) of violent prior 

offenders released after the age of 50 recidivated—more than twice the rate for 

non-violent offenders released after age 50 (15.2%). 
Chapter Five

Conclusion
Chapter Five: 

CONCLUSION

40

Conclusion

This report examined the recidivism rates of violent offenders compared 

to non-violent offenders. Almost two-fifths (39.3%) of the 25,431 offenders 

studied in this report engaged in violent criminal activity as part of their 

instant federal offense or prior criminal conduct. Violent offenders generally 

recidivated at a higher rate, more quickly, and for more serious crimes than 

non-violent offenders, regardless of whether the violence occurred during the 

instant federal offense or during prior criminal activity. 

Criminal history is strongly associated with recidivism among violent 

offenders and non-violent federal offenders. Although violent offenders 

have higher recidivism rates than non-violent offenders in every CHC, the 

difference is more evident in CHC I through CHC III. For offenders with 

more serious criminal histories (those offenders in CHCs IV through VI), the 

recidivism rates for violent offenders and non-violent offenders become more 

similar. Among all offenders in this study, the recidivism rate for those in CHC 

VI based on accumulation of criminal history points is over 80 percent (87.1% 

for violent offenders; 85.3% for violent prior offenders; 81.8% for non-violent 

offenders). 

Violent offenders recidivated at a higher rate and appear to desist from 

criminal activity later in life than non-violent offenders—violent offenders 

continued to recidivate at a high rate until reaching age 50 at the time of 

release from prison. Even after age 50, violent offenders recidivated at more 

than double the rate of non-violent offenders in the same age group. 
 

Endnotes
ENDNOTES

42

1 The United States Sentencing Commission is an independent agency in the judicial 

branch of government. Established by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, its principal purposes 

are (1) to establish sentencing policies and practices for the federal courts, including guidelines 

regarding the appropriate form and severity of punishment for offenders convicted of federal 

crimes; (2) to advise and assist Congress, the federal judiciary, and the executive branch in the 

development of effective and efficient crime policy; and (3) to collect, analyze, research, and 

distribute a broad array of information on federal crime and sentencing issues. See 28 U.S.C. 

§§ 995(a)(14), (15), (20).

2 See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A 

Comprehensive Overview 3 (2016), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-andpublications/research-publications/2016/recidivism_overview.pdf (hereinafter “Recidivism 

Overview Report”).

3 28 U.S.C. § 991(b)(1)(C).

4 See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Supplementary Report On The Initial Sentencing 

Guidelines and Policy Statements 41–44 (1987), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/

pdf/guidelines-manual/1987/manual-pdf/1987_Supplementary_Report_Initial_Sentencing_

Guidelines.pdf (hereinafter “Supplementary Report”).

5 See, e.g., U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Final Priorities for Amendment Cycle, 79 

FR 49378, 49379 (Aug. 20, 2014) (“Pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 994(g), the Commission intends to 

consider the issue of reducing costs of incarceration and overcapacity of prisons, to the extent it 

is relevant to any identified priority.”).

6 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 3.

7 See, e.g., Supplementary Report, supra note 4; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Report 

To Congress: Federal Child Pornography Offenses 293–310 (2012), http://www.ussc.gov/

sites/default/files/pdf/news/congressional-testimony-and-reports/sex-offense-topics/201212-

federal-child-pornography-offenses/Full_Report_to_Congress.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, 

A Comparison of the Federal Sentencing Guidelines Criminal History Category And 

The U.S. Parole Commission Salient Factor Score (2005), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/

default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2005/20050104_Recidivism_

Salient_Factor_Computation.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism And The “First 

Offender” (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/

research-publications/2004/200405_Recidivism_First_Offender.pdf; U.S. Sentencing 

Comm’n, Measuring Recidivism: The Criminal History Computation of the Federal 

Sentencing Guidelines (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/researchand-publications/research-publications/2004/200405_Recidivism_Criminal_History.pdf 

(hereinafter “Measuring Recidivism Report”).

8 See 2016 Report to The Congress: Career Offender Enhancements 2–3 (2016), 

https://www.ussc.gov/research/congressional-reports/2016-report-congress-career-offenderenhancements (hereinafter “Career Offender Report”). 

9 See The Past Predicts the Future: Criminal History and Recidivism of 

Federal Offenders 11–12 (2017), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-andpublications/research-publications/2017/20170309_Recidivism-CH.pdf (hereinafter “Past 

Predicts the Future”). 

10 An offender was classified as a violent instant offender if any of the following 

guidelines were applied at sentencing: USSG §§2A1.1, 2A1.2, 2A1.3, 2A1.5, 2A2.1, 

2A2.2, 2A2.3, 2A2.4, 2A3.1, 2A3.2, 2A3.3, 2A3.4, 2A4.1, 2A5.1, 2A5.2, 2A5.3, 2A6.1, 

2A6.2, 2B3.1, 2B3.2, 2D1.9, 2E1.1, 2E1.2, 2E1.3, 2E1.4, 2G1.2, 2G1.3, 2G2.1, 2G2.3, 

2G2.6, 2H4.1, 2K1.3, 2K1.4, 2M5.3, 2M6.1, 2X6.1. An offender was also classified as 

a violent instant offender if sentenced under certain provisions in §2K2.1 or 18 U.S.C. 

§ 924(c). 

11 Violent prior offenders were identified by reviewing criminal records provided from 

the FBI’s Criminal Justice Information Services. The Commission used prior arrest data to 

identify violent prior offenders in this report because prior conviction data is under-inclusive 

as a majority of states did not report dispositions during the relevant time period. A 2015 

Government Accountability Office report indicated that only 16 states reported that more than 

75% of their arrest records had dispositions during the relevant time-period. See U.S. Gov’t 

Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance 

The Completeness Of Records Used For Employment-Related Background Checks 

18 (2015), https://www.gao.gov/assets/670/668505.pdf (hereinafter “GAO Criminal History 

Records Report”). 

12 This group includes non-violent instant offenders who do not have any prior arrests or 

convictions. 

13 Each fiscal year begins on October 1 of the preceding calendar year. For example, 

fiscal year 2006 began on October 1, 2005, and ended on September 30, 2006.

14 Offenders analyzed in this report were sentenced prior to several important legal 

developments. Nearly all were sentenced prior to the Supreme Court’s 2005 decision in Booker 

v. United States, 543 U.S. 220 (2005), which rendered the sentencing guidelines advisory. 
43

15 This study uses rearrest as the primary measure of recidivism because reconviction 

and reincarceration events are under-reported; however, it also reports data about reconviction 

and reincarceration in Appendix A. See note 18 and accompanying text, infra. 

16 See Nat’l Institute of Justice, U.S. Dept. Of Justice, Recidivism, https://web.

archive.org/web/20160120175242/http:/www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/

welcome.aspx (last modified June 17, 2014).

17 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 7–8.

18 Many rearrests do not ultimately result in reconviction or reincarceration for reasons 

relating to procedural safeguards (for example, the suppression of evidence for an unconstitutional 

search or seizure), lack of sufficient evidence to convict or revoke, or prosecutorial or judicial 

resource limitations. To the extent that the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of relapse into 

criminal behavior, excluding events due to non-conviction or non-incarceration will result in 

underestimation of recidivism. Even the least restrictive measure, rearrest, does not account for 

the full extent of offender recidivism, as many crimes go unreported to police or, if reported, do 

not result in an arrest. For these reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several measures 

provides a more complete and nuanced picture of reoffending. Generally speaking, the measure 

of rearrest is larger than the measure of reconviction, which in turn is larger than the measure of 

reincarceration.

19 Revocations were not counted as reconvictions because the offenders were not 

convicted of a new offense (even if the basis for revocation was a “new law violation”). 

Offenders whose terms of supervision were revoked and who were sentenced to imprisonment 

were treated as having been reincarcerated.

20 See GAO Criminal History Records Report, supra note 11, at 18. 

21 See id.

22 In cases where multiple Chapter Two guidelines applied because the offender had 

multiple counts of conviction for different offenses, this report identifies the offender as violent if 

any of the guidelines that applied was for a violent offense, regardless of whether that guideline 

ultimately produced the highest offense level (i.e., the primary guideline). For example, an 

offender is categorized as a “violent instant offender” in this report if convicted of both a nonviolent instant offense (e.g., drug trafficking) and a violent instant offense (e.g., robbery), even if 

the primary guideline with the highest offense level was §2D1.1 for the drug trafficking offense. 

Additionally, if the primary sentencing guideline was for a non-violent offense, an offender is 

categorized as a “violent instant offender” if the guideline calculation included an instruction 

to apply another guideline, i.e., a cross-reference, for a violent offense. See U.S. Sentencing 

Comm’n, Guidelines Manual, §1B1.5(a), comment. (n.1) (Nov. 2018) [hereinafter USSG] 

(“These references may be to a specific guideline, or may be more general (e.g., to the guideline 

for the ‘underlying offense’). Such references incorporate the specific offense characteristics, 

cross references, and special instructions as well as the base offense level. For example, if the 

guideline reads ‘2 plus the offense level from §2A2.2 (Aggravated Assault),’ the user would 

determine the offense level from §2A2.2, including any applicable adjustments for planning, 

weapon use, degree of injury and motive, and then increase by 2 levels.”). 

23 The Commission categorized each of the offenders’ criminal history events into 

standardized offense codes using a widely accepted standardization scheme pioneered by 

the Bureau of Justice Statistics and used in other studies, including the Commission’s 2016 

Recidivism Overview Report. Using the standardized classifications, the Commission next 

identified certain categories as “violent.” In making these classifications, the Commission 

identified those offenses that are generally accepted as involving some level of violence, 

including many of those offenses that courts have found to qualify as “crimes of violence” under 

the career offender guideline. The Bureau of Justice Statistics also categorizes “other violent” 

crimes without further specification. The “other violent” crimes are included in this analysis. 

24 Among the violent offenders, the demographic characteristics also differ in several 

respects. Almost one-half of the violent instant offenders (46.5%) were White, while almost onehalf of violent prior offenders were Black (48.1%). The second largest group of violent instant 

offenders were Black (33.0%); followed by Hispanic offenders (12.4%). Whereas, the second 

largest group of violent prior offenders were White (35.2%); followed by Hispanic offenders 

(14.0%). The demographic characteristics of violent instant and violent prior offenders are 

discussed in further detail in Chapter Three and Chapter Four. 

25 Offenders who received probation with a condition of confinement are analyzed 

together with offenders who received probation without such a condition. This decision 

was made because the vast majority of offenders who received probation with a condition of 

confinement served that period of confinement in home detention or a halfway house rather 

than in a jail or prison. Therefore, for ease of analysis and presentation, recidivism rates will 

be presented for the two larger groups of offenders: (1) offenders who received a probationary 

sentence, regardless of whether it had a condition of confinement, and (2) offenders who received 

a sentence of imprisonment, regardless of whether it was a “split” sentence or a sentence of 

imprisonment only.

26 USSG §4A1.1.
ENDNOTES

44

27 Id. 

28 A defendant is a career offender if (1) the defendant was at least eighteen years old 

at the time the defendant committed the instant offense of conviction; (2) the instant offense 

of conviction is a felony that is either a crime of violence or a controlled substance offense; 

and (3) the defendant has at least two prior felony convictions for either a crime of violence 

or controlled substance offense. USSG §4B1.1. A defendant who is subject to an enhanced 

sentence under the provisions of 18 U.S.C. § 924(e) is an armed career criminal. USSG 

§4B1.4. Under 18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(1), a defendant is subject to an enhanced sentence if the 

instant offense of conviction is a violation of 18 U.S.C. § 922(g) and the defendant has at least 

three prior convictions for a “violent felony” or “serious drug offense,” or both, committed on 

occasions different from one another. The terms “violent felony” and “serious drug offense” 

are defined in 18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(2). Regardless of the CHC in which they were placed based 

on accumulation of criminal history points alone, this study treats career offenders and armed 

career criminals as a separate criminal history group. 

29 In general, the Commission followed a ranking scheme used by the Bureau of Justice 

Statistics in prior recidivism research. See Matthew Durose, Alexia Cooper, and Howard 

Snyder, Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Dept. Of Justice, Recidivism Of Prisoners 

Released In 30 States In 2005: Patterns From 2005 To 2010 (2014), http://www.bjs.gov/

content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf. The primary modification made by the Commission for use 

in this project was to increase the relative seriousness of drug trafficking offenses from their 

position in the original ranking, which correspondingly decreased the relative importance of 

property offenses. 

30 Because the analysis focused on only the single most serious offense, an arrest for a 

more serious offense (such as assault or drug trafficking) is reported in lieu of any less serious 

offenses, such as drug possession. Accordingly, this data should not be interpreted to represent 

the overall frequency of the listed offenses among recidivism events.

31 See USSG, Ch. 4, Pt. A, intro. comment.

32 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 18.

33 USSG, Ch. 4, Pt. A, intro. comment.

34 See, e.g., Measuring Recidivism Report, supra note 7.

35 See supra note 28. 

36 See Career Offender Report, supra note 8, at 2–3.

37 See The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 22–23 

(2017), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/researchpublications/2017/20171207_Recidivism-Age.pdf.

38 See, e.g., Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 23.

39 See supra note 25. 

40 See supra note 28. 

41 See supra note 28. 

42 Appendix B contains additional information on the robbery offenders. 

43 See supra note 25. 

44 See supra note 28. 

45 See supra note 28. 
 

Appendix A

Additional Findings
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

46

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Violent Instant Offenders

Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1991 31 1.2%

1992 62 2.4%

1993 68 2.6%

1994 48 1.9%

1995 62 2.4%

1996 84 3.2%

1997 107 4.1%

1998 136 5.2%

1999 154 5.9%

2000 194 7.5%

2001 257 9.9%

2002 337 13.0%

2003 421 16.2%

2004 338 13.0%

2005 268 10.3%

2006 29 1.1%

TOTAL 2,596 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID.

Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
47

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Violent Instant Offenders

Criminal History

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Total 2,596 60.2% 38.4% 34.3%

Criminal History Points

0 863 40.1% 22.7% 20.1%

1 286 52.8% 31.1% 26.9%

2 131 63.4% 36.6% 29.8%

3 182 57.7% 37.9% 32.4%

4 153 71.9% 49.0% 36.6%

5 101 63.4% 34.7% 29.7%

6 128 73.4% 45.3% 43.0%

7 86 75.6% 46.5% 46.5%

8 84 77.4% 53.6% 46.4%

9 122 82.8% 54.9% 54.1%

10 55 85.5% 63.6% 60.0%

More than 10 398 82.2% 59.3% 55.5%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 1,144 43.1% 24.8% 21.8%

CHC II 313 60.7% 38.3% 32.3%

CHC III 369 70.2% 44.4% 37.4%

CHC IV 247 79.8% 52.2% 50.2%

CHC V 141 77.3% 58.9% 51.8%

CHC VI 178 87.1% 62.4% 60.1%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 170 79.4% 52.9% 51.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

48

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Violent Instant Offenders

Sentence Imposed

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Sentence Type

Probation 169 44.4% 27.2% 17.2%

Prison 2,415 61.3% 39.1% 35.5%

Length of Sentence

Up to 24 Months 259 53.7% 34.0% 29.7%

24 to 59 Months 948 60.0% 37.8% 33.9%

60 to 119 Months 765 65.0% 41.8% 38.0%

120 Months or More 442 62.2% 40.3% 38.0%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 1,758 61.2% 39.8% 36.2%

Above Range 52 75.0% 46.2% 48.1%

5K1.1 Departure 354 55.9% 33.3% 26.6%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 53 54.7% 30.2% 24.5%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 294 55.1% 34.4% 31.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
49

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Violent Instant Offenders

Offender Characteristics

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 26 802 71.2% 48.4% 42.6%

26 to 30 446 63.9% 40.8% 36.6%

31 to 35 398 62.1% 40.5% 37.2%

36 to 40 330 62.7% 41.2% 36.7%

41 to 50 415 46.8% 24.6% 23.4%

Older than 50 200 28.0% 13.0% 9.5%

Age at Release

Younger than 26 359 70.8% 50.4% 45.1%

26 to 30 441 69.4% 41.7% 36.3%

31 to 35 469 61.6% 39.7% 34.3%

36 to 40 375 62.9% 43.7% 41.3%

41 to 50 599 59.3% 36.9% 33.2%

Older than 50 348 34.5% 17.0% 15.2%

Gender

Male 2,421 61.4% 39.1% 35.3%

Female 175 42.9% 28.0% 20.6%

Race/Ethnicity

White 1,207 49.5% 31.0% 27.1%

Black 856 70.6% 46.0% 40.2%

Hispanic 210 60.5% 32.9% 29.1%

Other 322 72.1% 49.4% 49.4%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

50

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Violent Prior Offenders

Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1991 36 0.5%

1992 63 0.9%

1993 83 1.1%

1994 71 1.0%

1995 89 1.2%

1996 131 1.8%

1997 197 2.7%

1998 255 3.4%

1999 301 4.1%

2000 473 6.4%

2001 662 8.9%

2002 815 11.0%

2003 1,349 18.2%

2004 1,454 19.6%

2005 1,270 17.1%

2006 159 2.2%

TOTAL 7,408 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID.

Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
51

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Violent Prior Offenders

Criminal History

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Total 7,408 65.1% 41.3% 34.1%

Criminal History Points

0 1,145 41.1% 21.8% 16.2%

1 764 51.6% 30.9% 22.0%

2 450 59.1% 32.4% 24.2%

3 628 60.4% 35.4% 25.6%

4 584 62.8% 38.5% 30.5%

5 436 68.4% 42.9% 37.8%

6 599 68.6% 41.7% 33.6%

7 329 72.3% 44.4% 36.5%

8 387 76.5% 52.2% 44.4%

9 396 77.5% 52.3% 45.7%

10 257 80.9% 51.4% 45.9%

More than 10 1,391 83.1% 60.4% 54.2%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 1,913 45.4% 25.3% 18.5%

CHC II 1,086 59.9% 34.2% 24.8%

CHC III 1,579 66.6% 41.1% 33.8%

CHC IV 1,031 76.5% 51.4% 44.1%

CHC V 637 80.7% 56.0% 50.9%

CHC VI 814 85.3% 62.5% 56.1%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 323 72.8% 46.8% 39.6%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

52

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Violent Prior Offenders

Sentence Imposed

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Sentence Type

Probation 816 51.4% 29.7% 20.0%

Prison 6,570 66.7% 42.8% 35.8%

Length of Sentence

Up to 24 Months 1,460 65.8% 41.4% 35.0%

24 to 59 Months 2,551 69.5% 45.8% 39.2%

60 to 119 Months 1,579 66.8% 42.9% 34.4%

120 Months or More 975 60.9% 36.5% 30.7%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 4,835 66.8% 42.5% 35.6%

Above Range 77 59.7% 44.2% 45.5%

5K1.1 Departure 1,649 62.8% 38.9% 30.6%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 109 69.7% 46.8% 45.9%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 568 58.3% 37.7% 28.7%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
53

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Violent Prior Offenders

Offender Characteristics

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 26 1,560 78.3% 55.3% 45.0%

26 to 30 1,579 73.1% 46.0% 38.5%

31 to 35 1,266 66.3% 43.7% 36.4%

36 to 40 1,062 65.1% 40.3% 31.7%

41 to 50 1,289 53.6% 29.7% 24.6%

Older than 50 640 34.4% 16.4% 15.6%

Age at Release

Younger than 26 678 80.5% 60.5% 49.7%

26 to 30 1,323 78.2% 52.2% 42.4%

31 to 35 1,575 69.2% 43.9% 36.7%

36 to 40 1,208 64.5% 40.3% 31.9%

41 to 50 1,687 60.8% 36.5% 30.4%

Older than 50 925 37.1% 17.7% 16.3%

Gender

Male 6,738 66.3% 42.1% 35.3%

Female 668 52.4% 32.9% 22.8%

Race/Ethnicity

White 2,606 58.9% 38.0% 31.2%

Black 3,562 69.2% 42.9% 35.1%

Hispanic 1,035 66.8% 44.1% 37.1%

Other 196 63.3% 42.9% 38.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

54

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

All Violent Offenders

Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1991 67 0.7%

1992 125 1.3%

1993 151 1.5%

1994 119 1.2%

1995 151 1.5%

1996 215 2.2%

1997 304 3.0%

1998 391 3.9%

1999 455 4.6%

2000 667 6.7%

2001 919 9.2%

2002 1,152 11.5%

2003 1,770 17.7%

2004 1,792 17.9%

2005 1,538 15.4%

2006 188 1.9%

TOTAL 10,004 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID.

Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
55

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

All Violent Offenders

Criminal History

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Total 10,004 63.8% 40.6% 34.2%

Criminal History Points

0 2,008 40.6% 22.2% 17.9%

1 1,050 51.9% 31.0% 23.3%

2 581 60.1% 33.4% 25.5%

3 810 59.8% 35.9% 27.2%

4 737 64.7% 40.7% 31.8%

5 537 67.4% 41.3% 36.3%

6 727 69.5% 42.4% 35.2%

7 415 73.0% 44.8% 38.6%

8 471 76.7% 52.4% 44.8%

9 518 78.8% 52.9% 47.7%

10 312 81.7% 53.5% 48.4%

More than 10 1,789 82.9% 60.2% 54.5%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 3,057 44.5% 25.1% 19.7%

CHC II 1,399 60.1% 35.1% 26.5%

CHC III 1,948 67.3% 41.7% 34.5%

CHC IV 1,278 77.2% 51.6% 45.3%

CHC V 778 80.1% 56.6% 51.0%

CHC VI 992 85.6% 62.5% 56.9%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 493 75.1% 48.9% 43.8%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

56

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

All Violent Offenders

Sentence Imposed

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Sentence Type

Probation 985 50.2% 29.2% 19.5%

Prison 8,985 65.3% 41.8% 35.8%

Length of Sentence

Up to 24 Months 1,719 63.9% 40.3% 34.2%

24 to 59 Months 3,499 67.0% 43.6% 37.8%

60 to 119 Months 2,344 66.2% 42.6% 35.6%

120 Months or More 1,417 61.3% 37.7% 33.0%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 6,593 65.3% 41.7% 35.7%

Above Range 129 65.9% 45.0% 46.5%

5K1.1 Departure 2,003 61.6% 37.9% 29.9%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 162 64.8% 41.4% 38.9%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 862 57.2% 36.5% 29.5%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
57

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

All Violent Offenders

Offender Characteristics

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 26 2,362 75.9% 53.0% 44.2%

26 to 30 2,025 71.1% 44.8% 38.1%

31 to 35 1,664 65.3% 42.9% 36.6%

36 to 40 1,392 64.5% 40.5% 32.9%

41 to 50 1,704 51.9% 28.5% 24.3%

Older than 50 840 32.9% 15.6% 14.2%

Age at Release 

Younger than 26 1,037 77.2% 57.0% 48.1%

26 to 30 1,764 76.0% 49.6% 40.9%

31 to 35 2,044 67.5% 43.0% 36.2%

36 to 40 1,583 64.1% 41.1% 34.1%

41 to 50 2,286 60.4% 36.6% 31.2%

Older than 50 1,273 36.4% 17.5% 16.0%

Gender

Male 9,159 65.0% 41.3% 35.3%

Female 843 50.4% 31.9% 22.3%

Race/Ethnicity

White 3,813 56.0% 35.8% 29.9%

Black 4,418 69.4% 43.5% 36.1%

Hispanic 1,245 65.7% 42.2% 35.7%

Other 518 68.7% 46.9% 45.4%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

58

Number of Recidivism Study Offenders by Fiscal Year Sentenced

Non-Violent Offenders

Fiscal Year Sentenced N %

1991 32 0.2%

1992 70 0.5%

1993 80 0.5%

1994 82 0.5%

1995 110 0.7%

1996 162 1.1%

1997 245 1.6%

1998 323 2.1%

1999 369 2.4%

2000 554 3.6%

2001 887 5.8%

2002 1,382 9.0%

2003 2,615 17.0%

2004 3,420 22.2%

2005 4,387 28.4%

2006 709 4.6%

TOTAL 15,427 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID.

Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
59

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Non-Violent Offenders

Criminal History

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Total 15,427 39.8% 23.3% 18.5%

Criminal History Points

0 8,592 27.7% 14.3% 10.9%

1 1,923 44.2% 25.2% 18.5%

2 670 52.5% 31.9% 23.1%

3 1,028 47.2% 25.8% 20.8%

4 624 53.2% 34.1% 26.8%

5 504 58.9% 38.3% 31.8%

6 550 63.3% 39.1% 33.8%

7 278 68.4% 42.1% 37.1%

8 270 69.3% 46.7% 41.1%

9 190 69.0% 49.5% 41.6%

10 151 68.2% 47.0% 42.4%

More than 10 611 77.4% 57.8% 50.1%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 10,524 30.7% 16.3% 12.3%

CHC II 1,685 49.4% 28.1% 21.8%

CHC III 1,663 58.6% 37.5% 31.1%

CHC IV 698 70.2% 47.1% 40.7%

CHC V 330 73.3% 51.2% 46.4%

CHC VI 352 81.8% 62.5% 53.1%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 140 50.0% 32.9% 27.1%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS

60

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Non-Violent Offenders

Sentence Imposed

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Sentence Type

Probation 3,769 31.2% 16.8% 11.5%

Prison 11,590 42.7% 25.4% 20.8%

Length of Sentence

Up to 24 Months 3,746 41.1% 24.9% 20.7%

24 to 59 Months 4,524 44.0% 26.7% 21.5%

60 to 119 Months 2,208 44.1% 25.3% 20.3%

120 Months or More 1,104 39.6% 22.2% 18.9%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 9,869 40.2% 23.5% 18.8%

Above Range 72 47.2% 36.1% 33.3%

5K1.1 Departure 3,328 39.2% 22.9% 17.4%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 424 47.6% 28.3% 24.8%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 1,356 36.7% 20.6% 16.2%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.
61

Rearrest, Reconviction, and Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables 

Non-Violent Offenders

Offender Characteristics

Total Rearrest % Reconviction % Reincarceration %

Age at Sentencing

Younger than 26 3,601 60.7% 39.6% 32.3%

26 to 30 2,721 48.4% 29.0% 22.5%

31 to 35 2,231 40.3% 22.9% 17.3%

36 to 40 1,955 35.2% 19.0% 14.3%

41 to 50 2,865 26.3% 12.5% 10.2%

Older than 50 2,026 14.3% 6.2% 5.4%

Age at Release 

Younger than 26 2,347 61.9% 41.3% 33.2%

26 to 30 2,561 52.8% 32.8% 26.2%

31 to 35 2,540 45.4% 26.3% 20.0%

36 to 40 2,179 37.6% 20.4% 15.7%

41 to 50 3,265 29.8% 15.0% 12.1%

Older than 50 2,507 15.2% 6.7% 5.8%

Gender

Male 11,599 42.0% 25.0% 20.1%

Female 3,821 33.3% 18.0% 13.5%

Race/Ethnicity

White 7,286 34.2% 20.0% 15.5%

Black 4,199 48.1% 27.9% 22.3%

Hispanic 3,267 42.7% 25.1% 20.4%

Other 661 34.2% 20.6% 17.6%

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

 

Appendix B

Robbery Offenders
APPENDIX B: ROBBERY OFFENDERS

64

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years After Release

Robbery Offenders Other Violent Offenders

Median Time to First Rearrest:

Robbery Offenders:

14 Months

Other Violent Instant Offenders:

20 Months

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Other Violent Instant Offenders Rearrest, 54.5%

Robbery Offenders Rearrest, 66.8%

Figure B.1. Time to First Rearrest of Robbery and Other Violent Instant Offenders

Other Violent Instant Offenders
65

2.3% 1.9%

26.2%

19.1%

0.9%

6.1% 2.9%

8.0%

2.6% 2.1% 4.3% 1.4% 1.5% 3.4% 0.0%

17.3%

0.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Robbery Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform 

the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 

Figure B.2. Most Serious Offense at Rearrest of Robbery Offenders
APPENDIX B: ROBBERY OFFENDERS

66

1.3%

5.4% 3.4%

28.4%

1.4%

6.0%

2.2%

6.2%

2.5% 3.2% 5.3% 2.4% 1.7%

8.5%

0.4%

21.7%

0.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Other Violent Instant Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Figure B.3. Most Serious Offense at Rearrest of Other Violent Instant Offenders
67

45.1%

62.1%

78.4% 80.8%

76.2%

86.2%

78.8%

42.1%

59.7%

63.1%

78.2% 79.0%

88.7%

81.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CHC I CHC II CHC III CHC IV CHC V CHC VI CO/ACC

Robbery Offenders Other Violent Instant Offenders

n=384 n=760 n=132 n=181 n=171 n=198 n=146 n=101 n=84 n=57 n=116 n=62 n=137 n=33

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure B.4. Rearrest Rates for Robbery and Other Violent Instant Offenders by Criminal History Category
APPENDIX B: ROBBERY OFFENDERS

68

66.2% 68.8% 67.0%

70.7% 72.2%

47.0%

73.7%

70.1%

56.7% 55.7%

47.1%

26.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Younger than 26 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 Older than 50

Robbery Offenders Other Violent Instant Offenders

n=142 n=217 n=224 n=217 n=224 n=245 n=181 n=194 n=291 n=308 n=132 n=216

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, VIOLENT_RECID. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to 

perform the analysis. 

Figure B.5. Rearrest Rates for Robbery and Other Violent Instant Offenders by Age at Release