OUR CHANGING PLANET

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program

for Fiscal Year 2007

A Report by

the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

A Supplement to the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2007
November 2006

Members of Congress:

We are pleased to transmit a copy of Our Changing Planet:The U.S. Climate Change

Science Program for FiscalYear 2007.The report describes the activities and plans of the

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program, established under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, and the

Climate Change Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001. CCSP

coordinates and integrates scientific research on climate and global change supported by

13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

This FiscalYear 2007 edition of Our Changing Planet highlights recent advances supported

by CCSP-participating agencies in each of the program’s research and observational

elements, as called for in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

released in July 2003.An addition to the report includes an analysis of the significant

progress that CCSP has made toward its overarching goals since the release of the

Strategic Plan.

The document describes a wide range of new and emerging observational capabilities

which, combined with the program’s analytical work, are leading to remarkable advances

in understanding the underlying processes responsible for climate variability and change. It

illustrates advances in U.S. modeling capabilities to represent past, present, and potential

future changes in the physical and biological dimensions of the Earth system.The report

also highlights progress being made to explore the uses and limitations of evolving

knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

The final chapter documents the program’s numerous current activities to promote

cooperation between the U.S. scientific community and its worldwide counterparts.

The document also outlines how CCSP plans to continue implementation of the

Strategic Plan during FY 2007.The program will continue to emphasize work on 21

scientific synthesis and assessment reports.The first of these, Temperature Trends in the

Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, was released in

April of this year and answers a set of key questions related to ongoing observations of the

Earth’s temperature.
CCSP is committed to its mission to facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of

the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and

communication.We thank the CCSP-participating agencies for their close cooperation,

and we look forward to working with Congress in the continued development of this

important program.

John H. Marburger III

Director, Office of Science

andTechnology Policy

Executive Director,

Committee on

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration

SamuelW. Bodman

Secretary of Energy

Vice Chair, Committee on

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration

Carlos M. Gutierrez

Secretary of Commerce

Chair, Committee on Climate

Change Science and

Technology Integration
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2007 . . 1

Integrating Climate and Global Change Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Analysis of ProgressToward Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

CCSP FY 2007 Focus Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

Decision Support: Information to Support

Policy Development and Adaptive Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Outline of Research Element Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH AND PLANS FOR FY 2007 . 37

Atmospheric Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

ClimateVariability and Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

GlobalWater Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Global Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related

Research on Human Contributions and Responses . . . . 154

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

International Research and Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

APPENDICES

The Climate Change Science Program Participating Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

Climate Change Science Program FY 2007 BudgetTables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .pocket

TABLE OF CONTENTS
THE U.S. CLIMATE

CHANGE SCIENCE

PROGRAM
Many aspects of the environment and society are significantly affected by climate.The

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) was established in 2002 to empower the

Nation and the global community with the science-based knowledge to manage risks

and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. CCSP

incorporates and integrates the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)

with the Administration’s U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI).

The USGCRP was established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to enhance

understanding of natural and human-induced changes in the Earth’s global environmental

system; to monitor, understand, and predict global change; and to provide a sound

scientific basis for national and international decisionmaking.

The Earth has always experienced climate variations at time scales ranging from seasons

to millions of years.With the likelihood of a recent and growing human influence on

climate, it is vital for society to be equipped with the best possible knowledge of climate

variability and change so

that we may exercise

responsible stewardship

for the environment,

lessen the potential for

negative climate impacts,

and take advantage of

positive opportunities where they exist.The importance of these issues and the unique

role that science can play in informing society’s responses give rise to CCSP’s guiding

vision.

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THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

FOR FY 2007

A nation and the global community empowered

with the science-based knowledge to manage

the risks and opportunities of change in the

climate and related environmental systems.

CCSP GUIDINGVISION
Research conducted through CCSP is building on scientific advances of the last few

decades and is deepening our understanding of the interplay of natural and humancaused forces. CCSP is

developing information

to facilitate comparative

analysis of different

approaches to adaptation

to and mitigation of

climate change. CCSP

also promotes capacity development among scientists and information users—both in

the developed and the developing world—to address the interactions between climate

change, society, and the environment.

INTEGRATING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

CCSP integrates the USGCRP, which was mandated by Congress in the Global

Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, 104 Stat. 3096-3104), and the CCRI,

which was established by President Bush in 2001, to improve understanding of

uncertainties in climate science, expand global observing systems, develop sciencebased resources to support policymaking and resource management, and communicate

findings broadly among scientific and stakeholder communities.Thirteen departments

and agencies of the U.S. Government participate in CCSP, including:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Department of Commerce / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(DOC/NOAA)

• Department of Defense (DOD)

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior / U.S. Geological Survey (DOI/USGS)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department ofTransportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Facilitate the creation and application of

knowledge of the Earth’s global environment

through research, observations, decision

support, and communication.

CCSP MISSION
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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007

Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems

to a new or changing environment that

exploits beneficial opportunities or

moderates negative effects.

Climate

The statistical description of the mean

and variability of relevant measures of

the atmosphere-ocean system over

periods of time ranging from weeks to

thousands or millions of years.

Climate Change

A statistically significant variation in

either the mean state of the climate or in

its variability, persisting for an extended

period (typically decades or longer).

Climate change may be due to natural

internal processes or to external forcing,

including changes in solar radiation and

volcanic eruptions, or persistent humaninduced changes in atmospheric

composition or in land use.

Climate Feedback

An interaction among processes in the

climate system in which a change in one

process triggers a secondary process that

influences the first one.A positive

feedback intensifies the change in the

original process, and a negative feedback

reduces it.

Climate Forcing

A process that directly changes the average

energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere

system by affecting the balance between

incoming solar radiation and outgoing or

“back” radiation.A positive forcing tends

to warm the surface of the Earth and a

negative forcing tends to cool the surface.

Climate System

The highly complex system consisting of

five major components: the atmosphere,

the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the

land surface, the biosphere, and the

interactions between them.The climate

system evolves in time under the

influence of its own internal dynamics

and because of external forcings such as

volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and

human-induced forcings such as the

changing composition of the atmosphere

and land-use change.

ClimateVariability

Variations in the mean state and other

statistics of climatic features on temporal

and spatial scales beyond those of

individual weather events.These often

are due to internal processes within the

climate system. Examples of cyclical

forms of climate variability include the

El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North

Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific

Decadal Oscillation.

Decision-Support Resources

The set of observations, analyses,

interdisciplinary research products,

communication mechanisms, and

operational services that provide timely

and useful information to address

questions confronting policymakers,

resource managers, and other users.

Global Change

Changes in the global environment

(including alterations in climate, land

productivity, oceans or other water

resources, atmospheric chemistry, and

ecological systems) that may alter the

capacity of the Earth to sustain life

(from the Global Change Research Act

of 1990, PL 101-606).

Mitigation

An intervention to reduce the humaninduced factors that contribute to

climate change.This could include

approaches devised to reduce emissions

of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere;

to enhance their removal from the

atmosphere through storage in geological

formations, soils, biomass, or the ocean;

or to alter incoming solar radiation

through several “geo-engineering” options.

Observations

Standardized measurements (either

continuing or episodic) of variables in

climate and related systems.

Prediction

A probabilistic description or forecast of

a future climate outcome based on

observations of past and current

climatological conditions and quantitative

models of climate processes (e.g., a

prediction of an El Niño event).

Projection

A description of the response of the

climate system to an assumed level of

future radiative forcing. Changes in

radiative forcing may be due to either

natural sources (e.g., volcanic emissions)

or human-induced factors (e.g., emissions

of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or

changes in land use and land cover).

Climate “projections” are distinguished

from climate “predictions” in order to

emphasize that climate projections depend

on scenarios of future socioeconomic,

technological, and policy developments

that may or may not be realized.

Weather

The specific condition of the atmosphere

at a particular place and time, measured

in terms of variables such as wind,

temperature, humidity, atmospheric

pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation.

DEFINITION OF KEYTERMS
In addition, the Executive Office of the President and other related programs have

designated liaisons who participate on the CCSP Interagency Committee, including:

• Office of Science andTechnology Policy (OSTP)

• Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)

• Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

• Climate ChangeTechnology Program (CCTP)

• Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM)

• National Institute of Standards andTechnology (NIST).

Appendix A, “The Climate Change Science Program Participating Agencies,” contains

information about the specific missions and roles of each agency participating in

CCSP.Appendix B, “Climate Change Science Program FY 2007 BudgetTables,” in the

insert pocket, contains budgetary analyses of the program grouped by agency as well

as a program-wide interagency cross-cut grouped by the strategic goals and research

elements of CCSP as described in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change

Research Program published in July 2003.

As a multi-agency program, CCSP harnesses the unique approaches and missions of

its participating agencies to encourage research that leads to expanded and new

results.A significant challenge that arises from working across

many agencies is integrating climate and global change research

to develop a comprehensive view of climate change and its

potential significance. CCSP adds value to the individual Earth

and climate science missions of its 13 participating agencies and

their national and international partners by coordinating

research and facilitating integration of information to achieve

results that no single agency, or small group of agencies, could

attain.

CCSP relies not only on the agency programs stated in its

budget cross-cut, but also on agency activities that are not

formally included in the CCSP budget. Examples of these

directly related activities are NOAA’s long-term surface,

balloon, and satellite-based meteorological observations; surface

hydrologic and satellite land-cover observations from USGS; and

future satellite measurement programs including the tri-agency

(NOAA, DOD, NASA) National Polar-Orbiting Operational

Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS); and the planned

implementation of a Landsat data continuity mission.Without

input from activities such as these, CCSP would be unable to

fulfill its mission.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
CCSP also relies on and provides input to other major interagency programs that

observe and study particular aspects of the environment and associated human

activities. Foremost among these is the CCTP, which develops and studies technological

options for responding to climate change.A key observational linkage is with the U.S.

Integrated Earth Observation System, which is part of the international Global Earth

Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). CCSP is also linked to another set of activities

articulated in the U.S. Ocean Action Plan (see <www.ocean.ceq.gov/actionplan.pdf>)

and being planned by the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science andTechnology.

Connections to programs such as these allow CCSP and its partners to leverage their

resources to derive mutual benefits from advances in any one program.

Program Management

As described in the CCSP Strategic Plan, CCSP employs a management approach that

integrates the planning and implementation of individual climate and global change

research programs of the participating Federal agencies and departments to reduce

overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and synthesize products and deliverables

generated under the auspices of CCSP. Five mechanisms are used to achieve this

management approach:

• Executive Direction –The InteragencyWorking Group on Climate Change Science

andTechnology and the CCSP Principals Committee are responsible for overall

priority setting, program direction, management review, and accountability to

deliver program goals.

• Agency Implementation – CCSP-participating departments and agencies are

responsible for conducting research, developing modeling tools, developing and

operating observing systems, and producing CCSP-required products, often in

collaboration with interagency working groups.

• Interagency Planning and Implementation – Several interagency working groups,

including one for each CCSP research element, are responsible for coordinating

planning and implementation to align agency programs with CCSP priorities.

• External Guidance and Interaction – External advisory groups and organizations,

including the National Academies, provide external guidance, oversight, and

interactions to ensure scientific excellence, credibility, and utility.

• Program Support –The CCSP Office provides staffing and day-to-day coordination

of CCSP-wide program integration, strategic planning, product development, and

communications.

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
Coordinating Research Elements

Efforts to foster integration occur on

many levels. One is improving coordination

of scientific research and the flow of

information through interdisciplinary and

interagency working groups focused on

each of seven main research elements of

the program plus a number of crosscutting activities or themes. CCSP’s

research elements include atmospheric

composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle, land-use and

land-cover change, the global carbon cycle, ecosystems, and human contributions

and responses to environmental change. For each of the research elements, recent

highlights and program plans for FY 2007 are described in subsequent chapters of

this report.The budget tables appendix contains information on the CCSP budget by

research element.This budget cross-cut illustrates integrative management of the

program that starts from research-driven requirements and extends to coordinated

planning to distribute and integrate work efficiently across CCSP’s participating

agencies.

Integrating research and observational approaches across disciplinary boundaries is

essential for understanding how the Earth system functions and how it will change in

response to future forcing.This is due to the interconnectedness among components

of the Earth system, which often relate to each other through feedback loops.

Interdisciplinary interactions in CCSP are scaled to the nature of the problem. In

some cases, the necessary science may be conducted within a small set of disciplines,

such as those required to improve understanding of cloud microphysics. In other

cases, highly interdisciplinary approaches are required, such as in the case of making

projections about the future state of the Earth system and analyzing their

implications. In the latter example, expertise ranging from the social sciences to

atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to oceanography to the biological sciences is

required.

Interdisciplinary research is only one aspect of the integration facilitated by CCSP.

Integration in CCSP also refers to the steps being taken to create more seamless

approaches between the theory, modeling, observations, and applications that are

required to address the multiple scientific challenges being confronted by CCSP.

Finally, integration in CCSP also refers to the enhancement of cooperation across

agencies toward meeting the objectives articulated in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Integrated Program Analysis

In a highly distributed program such as CCSP, it is often a challenge to develop and

maintain a cohesive perspective, ensuring that key components or interactions of the

integrated Earth system are not overlooked.To help address this challenge, the program

has often sought guidance from the National Academies. CCSP has recently requested

that the National Research Council (NRC) establish a new committee to provide highlevel integrated advice on the evolution of the program.The committee will provide

independent advice, through annual reports, on the strategy and evolution of CCSP.

Specific topics the committee will address in its first two annual reports include:

• Evaluation of progress toward program goals.The CCSP Strategic Plan and the

guidelines given in the 2005 NRC report Thinking Strategically:The Appropriate

Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program will provide a starting point

for this examination.The committee will prepare a report that provides findings

and recommendations on the process for evaluating progress toward the five CCSP

goals and a preliminary assessment of progress to date.

• The committee will examine the program elements described in the CCSP Strategic

Plan and identify priorities to guide the future evolution of the program in the

context of established scientific and societal objectives.These priorities may include

adjustments to the balance between science and applications, shifts in emphasis

given to the various scientific themes, and identification of program elements not

supported in the past.

CCSP will continue to rely on other mechanisms for scientific guidance and advice,

including other NRC committees that focus on particular components of the climate

system (e.g., the Climate Research Committee and the Committee on the Human

Dimensions of Global Change). CCSP will also continue to utilize scientific advisory

groups that support individual agencies, scientific steering groups organized to

coordinate different CCSP research elements, and open dialog with the domestic and

international scientific and user communities interested in global change issues.

ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSTOWARD GOALS

The CCSP has five overarching goals that cut across the program’s research elements,

providing an integrated analytical framework.These five goals span the full range of

climate-related issues, including natural climate conditions and variability; forces that

influence climate, including cycles and processes that affect atmospheric concentrations

of greenhouse gases and aerosols; climate responses; consequences for ecosystems,

society, and the economy; and application of knowledge to decisionmaking.These

8

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
overarching goals are complemented by the detailed objectives, milestones, products,

and payoffs articulated in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

This section of Our Changing Planet, which is new this year, provides an overview of

progress made toward the program’s goals since the release of the CCSP Strategic Plan

in 2003. Because of the program’s breadth and wide-ranging progress, this overview

cannot address all advances. In addition, this section does not purport to provide a

thorough assessment of climate change or the extent of the scientific uncertainties that

remain. Instead, it provides examples that illustrate the scope and significance of the

progress that CCSP has made in expanding and applying understanding of climate.

See pages 157 to 163 for a description of the 21 CCSP synthesis and assessment

products.

U.S. climate research has historically focused on Goals 1 through 3, which emphasize

improvements in fundamental understanding of the climate system, its driving forces,

and the tools to make predictions of short-term climate variability and potential

long-term climate change more reliable.As the science has matured and its societal

utility has become more evident, the importance of Goals 4 and 5 has become

magnified.The examples of progress provided below are often the result of activities

that integrate research from many disciplines conducted or supported across the

participating agencies.

Goal 1:Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and

environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of

the causes of observed variability and change.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including

its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems.

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may

change in the future.

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and related global changes.

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change.

CCSP GOALS
The program’s research is built upon a solid foundation of observationally based

analyses, which are used to improve understanding of Earth system processes, to test

and improve models, and to determine the extent of climate variations.These analyses

span all aspects of the climate system. In the past few years, these analyses have

enabled several important advances in understanding the nature and variability of the

Earth system.

A key example is the analytical work reported in the CCSP synthesis and assessment

report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and

Reconciling Differences (CCSP, 2006). Previously reported discrepancies between the

amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to

challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global

warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while

early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the

surface.This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and

radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been

developed that do not show such discrepancies.

The synthesis and assessment report is an important revision to the conclusions of

earlier reports from the NRC (2000) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC, 2001). For recent decades, all current atmospheric data sets now show

global-average warming that is similar to the surface warming.While these data are

consistent with the results from climate models at the global scale, discrepancies in

the tropics remain to be resolved. Nevertheless, the most recent observational and

model evidence has increased confidence in our understanding of observed climatic

changes and their causes.

While temperature has traditionally been a leading measure of climate variability and

change, CCSP’s work on other climate system parameters has significantly advanced

understanding of variations that have important connections to societal well-being.

Prime illustrations of this work are recent wide-ranging analyses of the terrestrial and

oceanic water cycle. For example, observations in the western United States indicate

that the annual peak in spring river runoff is occurring earlier in the season and is

supplying less water during the growing season (Mote et al., 2005). New satellitebased observations of the polar regions indicate significant reductions in the volume of

the Greenland Ice Sheet (Velicogna andWahr, 2005), declining Arctic sea-ice cover,

and loss of ice mass in Antarctica despite no measurable change in snowfall over the

last 50 years (Velicogna andWahr, 2006; Managhan et al., 2006). Observations of

global sea-level increases are consistent with the declining volume of land ice as well

as observations of ocean warming, which contributes to sea-level rise by expanding

10

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
ocean volume. Observations of the North Atlantic indicate a reduction in salinity

(Curry and Mauritzen, 2005), which climate system models indicate may lead to a

slowdown of the large-scale ocean circulation that transports heat to high-latitude

regions (Stouffer et al., 2006a). Global-scale observations of ocean temperature indicate

a pattern of warming that is generally consistent with climate model projections of

greenhouse warming (Barnett et al., 2005a).Although significant uncertainty

remains, a pattern of climatic change is emerging that appears to be the likely result of

a human imprint upon a complex background of natural climate system variability

(Barnett et al., 2005b; NRC, 2001).

Although it is scientifically critical to observe and understand variations in the average

state of particular climate parameters, it is perhaps even more important for society to

understand changes in the frequency or intensity of relatively uncommon phenomena

(extreme events). One example of research on this topic indicates that recent U.S.

droughts are relatively minor in comparison to naturally occurring droughts over the

past millennium as shown by proxy records derived from tree rings and sediment cores

(Cook et al., 2004). Other examples of research on extreme events are observational

analyses suggesting that the occurrence of severe hurricanes is increasing (Emanuel,

2005;Webster et al., 2005) and opposing analyses suggesting that the apparent trends

may be the result of flaws in the observational data (Landsea et al., 2006).

Interpreting changes in the characteristics of extreme events remains one of CCSP’s

ongoing research frontiers.

Under Goal 1, CCSP has made important progress in understanding the climate

system’s natural recurrent patterns of variability.The most prominent is El Niño,

which recurs on a time scale of approximately 2 to 7 years and involves a

warming of the eastern tropical Pacific in combination with changes in

atmospheric circulation. Recent research links decadal changes in

this pattern to droughts and wet conditions over North America

and suggests that a portion of such decadal changes may be

predictable (Seager et al., 2005). Other important sets of

recurrent patterns of variability include the so-called Annular

Modes, which are concentric patterns of high and low pressure

centered on the North and South Poles. Recent research has

made significant advances in explaining the nature of these

patterns and their effect on mid-latitude climate (Thompson and

Wallace, 2000). Using this improved understanding of natural

climate variability to improve predictions of the occurrence of

specific climate variations from 2 weeks to several years in the future

remains a major challenge.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Goal 2:Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the

Earth’s climate and related systems.

An understanding of the factors responsible for global environmental change is necessary

to make long-term climate projections.These forcing factors include greenhouse

gases, tiny airborne particles (aerosols), land cover, and solar variability.

The greenhouse gas that plays the largest role in causing climate change is carbon

dioxide (CO2).An understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 and of carbon cycle

dynamics is required for developing scenarios of future atmospheric CO2 concentration

and for developing effective strategies to manage carbon cycle processes that affect the

concentration of atmospheric CO2.

Climate and the global carbon cycle are a tightly coupled system where changes in

climate affect the transfer of atmospheric CO2 to the terrestrial biosphere and the

ocean, and vice versa.An important conclusion of recent carbon cycle research is that

future warming is likely to lead to a further decrease in the efficiencies of land and ocean

in absorbing excess CO2 (i.e.,a positive feedback) (Fung et al., 2005).This assessment is

based on advances in U.S. and global carbon observations and improvements in carbon

cycle models. Controlled experiments on carbon uptake and release in ecosystems are

one means of improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics, which can contribute to corresponding carbon cycle model improvements. For example, Free-Air

Carbon Dioxide Enrichment experiments, in which CO2 is purposely injected into

the air around a small plot of land, have led to the conclusion that the mass of carbon

in ecosystems initially tends to increase when exposed to increased levels of CO2

(Norby et al., 2005; Jastrow et al., 2005).This increase may be limited by the availability

of nutrients, although a comprehensive meta-analysis indicates that nitrogen supply

generally keeps pace with plant demands in natural systems (Luo et al., 2006). Other

controlled experiments in which ecosystems are

purposely warmed generally indicate greater ecosystem

CO2 release with higher temperatures. However, there

are still significant uncertainties associated with the

biospheric response to climate change, particularly with

respect to the complex and dynamic nature of ecosystems

and their interactions with climate and the hydrologic

cycle.

Another important recent advance is improved estimates

of the amount of carbon being sequestered in North

America and globally, and in particular, how the rate of

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
carbon uptake is changing in all ecosystems.These estimates are made through the

innovative combination of carbon cycle models and observations of carbon concentrations

and isotopes (Fung et al., 2005).A key goal of the North American Carbon Program

is to further improve estimates of carbon sources and sinks.Work of this nature is vital

for assessing the efficacy of natural carbon uptake, as well as the potential for purposeful

carbon capture in managed ecosystems.

Observations of ocean carbon are important for addressing uncertainties associated with

the global carbon budget. New global-scale ocean carbon analyses indicate increasing

carbon concentrations in ocean water. In addition to confirming the oceans as a significant

carbon sink, this information is also being used to estimate the increase in ocean

acidity caused by increasing amounts of dissolved CO2, and the potentially deleterious

consequences for marine ecosystems (Orr et al., 2005). Recent measurements of carbon

sedimentation along continental shelves have shown these regions to be responsible

for a significant fraction of oceanic carbon uptake (Muller-Karger et al., 2005).

CCSP has made significant advances in understanding the processes responsible for the

production and destruction of other greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous

oxide. For example, recent analyses estimate that approximately 60% of all methane

emissions from wetlands occur in the tropics (Melack et al., 2004). In polar regions,

recent studies have elucidated processes by which carbon, currently trapped either as

organic matter or methane hydrates in the permafrost (frozen soil), is released to the

atmosphere (Zimov et al., 2006).Warming increases these releases and can create an

amplifying feedback loop.Another example of progress on non-carbon greenhouse

gases is the work that has improved understanding of interactions between climate

variability and near-surface ozone, which is a health hazard.

One of the largest uncertainties in projections of potential future climate change is the

role of aerosols. Recent research has reduced some of this uncertainty, in part through

efforts made possible by the CCRI. In the first phase of preparing the synthesis and

assessment report that deals with aerosol

properties and their impacts on climate, a

comprehensive paper has been published that

reviews recent progress in characterizing

aerosols and assessing the direct effect of

aerosols on climate change (Yu et al., 2006).

This work will serve as a major resource in

the preparation of the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report. One study cited in the

review paper, for example, concluded from

13

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
observational evidence that enhanced aerosol concentrations increase the amount of

thermal energy emitted by Arctic clouds to the surface, which could augment surface

warming caused by greenhouse gases (Lubin andVogelmann, 2006).

Examples of other areas in which the program has made significant advances in

understanding include the potential effects of land-use change on climate, the recovery

of the ozone layer and its interactions with climate change, and the magnitude of

variations in solar output and their potential effects on climate (Feddema et al., 2005;

Reinsel et al., 2005; Lean et al., 2005; Meehl et al.; 2004a).

Goal 3:Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related

systems may change in the future.

CCSP has significantly advanced the ability to estimate future Earth system conditions

at time scales ranging from months to centuries and at spatial scales ranging from

regional to global.The primary tools for Earth system prediction and projection are

computer models that reflect the best available knowledge of Earth system processes.

Recent model simulations of the climate of the past 100 years have been compared to

observations.The results generally indicate improvements over previous generations

of models, including the ability to represent weather systems, climate variability (e.g.,

monsoons, El Niño), ocean processes (e.g., the Gulf Stream), surface hydrology, and

other Earth system processes, components, and dynamics (Collins et al., 2006;

Schmidt et al., 2006). One of the ways in which these models have advanced is through

improvements in the representation of the processes responsible for key Earth system

feedbacks such as those associated with water vapor, clouds, sea ice, and the carbon

cycle (Delworth et al., 2006; Gnanadesikan et al., 2006;Wittenberg et al., 2006).

The magnitude of future warming will be strongly influenced by the extent to

which atmospheric water vapor concentration increases in response to an initial

warming caused by increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.An accurate

representation of this feedback in climate models is critical for making longterm climate projections. Recent innovative analyses have shown that water

vapor increases in the upper atmosphere measured by satellites and balloonborne sensors are generally consistent with state-of-the-art climate model

simulations, lending credence to the ability of current models to represent the

water vapor feedback (Soden et al., 2005; Cess, 2005).

New cloud simulation modules that have been developed and incorporated

into climate system models indicate improved performance when compared to

the ability of earlier cloud modules to represent day-to-day and seasonal cloud

14

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
variability (Khairoutdinov et al., 2005).Advances have also been made in understanding

the effects of aerosols on cloud formation and precipitation, although significant

uncertainties remain (Lohmann and Feicher, 2005). Other types of important cloud

processes that require further work are those associated with deep convection

(thunderstorms), low-level ocean stratus cloud formation, and the very fine-scale

effects of cloud properties on the Earth’s energy balance (Stephens, 2005).A priority

for the program is to continue to improve understanding of these and other cloud

processes and to incorporate these improvements into climate models.

The CCSP modeling strategy utilizes a multi-tiered approach in which new and

improved Earth system sub-models (e.g., clouds, ecosystem dynamics, sea ice) are

developed and tested by individual researchers or small research teams.When

significant improvements in these sub-models arise, they are integrated as appropriate

into high-end Earth system models.A result of these ongoing efforts is a set of U.S.

models that expand beyond earlier atmosphere-ocean models to include relatively

sophisticated representations of land-surface hydrology, sea ice, ecosystems, and

atmospheric chemistry. Several U.S. Earth system modeling centers have used variations

of these models to produce ensembles of projections that are providing important

new perspectives on potential future climate system change (Meehl et al., 2004a;

Stouffer et al., 2006b).These ensembles are also being used to characterize the intrinsic

uncertainty associated with potential future climate change.

A set of new high-resolution climate model simulations has been completed for

North America that provides information at a scale finer than 100 km x 100 km

(Leung et al., 2004; Han and Roads, 2004; Mason, 2004;Wood et al., 2004).The

ability of these regional-scale models to represent climate processes is being assessed

(see <www.narccap.ucar.edu>).These regional and global simulations, based on

models developed at U.S. institutions, are contributing to the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report.

Because Earth system models are extremely complex and benefit greatly from input

and evaluation by multiple research teams, several new efforts have been initiated to

enable sharing, testing, and improvement of these models by diverse groups of

researchers (Meehl et al., 2004b, 2005). Many of the recent model simulations

referred to above are now widely available through a new capability for data archiving

and dissemination developed by the Program for Climate Model Data and

Intercomparison (see <www-pcmdi.llnl.gov>). Large strides have been made in

creating climate model code according to a set of standards that facilitate exchange of

sub-models (e.g., the Earth System Model Framework), which enables researchers to

readily trace the source of differences between various models and between models

15

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
and observations.The U.S. ClimateVariability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) is

exploring a new approach for bringing together observers, theorists, and high-end

modelers to improve key model deficiencies (Bretherton et al., 2004; USCLIVAR,

2002).This approach is attempting to significantly reduce the time lags that often exist

between the observation of key climate processes and the integration of these processes

into more comprehensive Earth system models. Several high-end Earth system modeling

efforts in the United States, which involve many different, independent research

teams, are using these types of new collaborative approaches and tools to evaluate,

improve, and integrate model components.

Goal 4:Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and

managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.

CCSP has made significant advances in understanding the potential impacts of climate

change. One of the hallmarks of CCSP research is the use of many different sources of

information, including analyses using prehistoric information, direct observations, and

model-based projections. Recent research has also begun to account for the dynamic

nature of the response of human and natural systems to climate change (Lucier et al.,

2006).This research encompasses a wide range of potential impacts on societal needs

such as water, health, and agriculture, as well as potential impacts on natural terrestrial

and marine ecosystems.

One example of this type of work addresses the potential impacts of variations in

water availability in the western United States (Barnett et al., 2004).As mentioned

previously, paleoclimatic research indicates that decades-long droughts have occurred

many times over the past millennium.This information, in combination with climate

model projections of potential reductions in future water availability due to increases

in greenhouse gases, suggests that current water management systems in theWest (e.g.,

California) may be insufficient

to respond to future climate

conditions (VanRheenen et al.,

2004; Dettinger et al., 2004).

Other research indicates that

multi-decadal climate variability

in the western United States may

have significant impacts on

ecosystems, mountain glaciers,

tourism, and fire frequency

(Christensen et al., 2004; Brown

et al., 2004).

16

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
Another example of CCSP research related to Goal 4 is analyses of the potential

implications of climate variability and change on river and marine ecosystems. For

example, measurements of salmon populations originating in Alaskan and Pacific

Northwest coastal rivers indicate large fluctuations in abundance in recent decades,

resulting in significant economic and social costs and ecological impacts in riverine

and coastal marine communities. In addition to impacts from loss of habitat, river

obstructions, harvest, and competition from hatcheries there is some evidence that

salmon abundance is linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, but details of the

processes involved are poorly understood due to the complexity of the food chain upon

which the salmon depend (Pierce, 2004; Farley et al., 2006; Ruggerone et al., 2005).

Fisheries research has made important strides in understanding the interplay of factors

responsible for variations in harvests of many different species, including the effects of

water temperature, changing fishing practices, and management of fish hatcheries and

migration routes.Another example of multi-factorial coastal research in CCSP is work

on coral systems, which has found that human disturbance and coral disease, coupled

with ocean warming events, are contributing to coral bleaching (West and Salm, 2003).

Research into the potential implications of sea-level rise also points to the need to

account for a wide variety of factors when assessing future impacts. For example, some

measures to protect coastlines may carry negative side effects, such as the potential

for wetlands loss when inland barriers are constructed, preventing the wetlands from

migrating inland in response to rising sea level (Cahoon et al., 2006).

Components of CCSP research funded in part through the U.S.

Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Program have explored ecosystem

impacts in the open ocean resulting from climate variability and

change as well as from changes in ocean chemistry and thermal

structure.An example of a chemical impact is the chain of events

causing the oceans to become more acidic due to chemical

changes resulting from the absorption of increasing concentrations

of atmospheric CO2 (Orr et al., 2005). Ocean warming tends

to increase vertical stratification (layering) and thus slow the

overturning of nutrient-rich deep-ocean waters (Schmittner,

2005). Recent model projections suggest that increased ocean acidification and

increased layering of the upper ocean due to warming are likely to reduce plankton

production.These model results are supported by satellite observations indicating

significant changes in photosynthetic plankton concentrations, including declines in

the North Atlantic and Pacific and increases in the Indian Ocean (Gregg et al., 2003).

Observational and modeling studies of terrestrial ecosystems indicate a wide variety of

changes in which it appears that climate variations play a significant role. For example,

17

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
recent evidence indicates a northward expansion of the ranges of many bird and

butterfly species in the United States corresponding to warming in the region

(Sekercioglu et al., 2004). Declines in Arctic sea ice, observed both in situ and by

satellites, have been linked to increasing vulnerability of polar bear populations

(ACIA, 2005). Satellite and in situ observations also indicate a trend toward earlier

growth of spring vegetation (Angert et al., 2005). In addition to temperature and

hydrologic changes, the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 is thought to play a role

in changing ecosystem distributions and characteristics due to its fertilizing effect.

Agricultural yield models account for this effect, and project a range of agricultural

impacts depending on the magnitude and nature of future climate change, crop

types, and the types of adaptive measures that are adopted. Recent research indicates

that different strategies may be required to manage insects, weeds, and diseases in

agricultural systems (Ziska and Runion, 2006).

In addition to managed ecosystems, CCSP research has expanded understanding of the

sensitivity and adaptability of a variety of other societal sectors. One of these is human

health, which may be affected directly by changes in temperature and storm intensity,

or indirectly through changes in distributions of insects that carry pathogens.An

example of research in this area is the effects of climate change on heat waves.As

described in the ClimateVariability and Change chapter, recent observational and

modeling work suggests that the probability of heat waves such as the one that

occurred in Europe in 2003 has increased significantly, and that future warming may

make heat waves of similar magnitude a normal summer occurrence within several

decades (Meehl andTebaldi, 2004). Recent research on the societal dimensions of

climate variations has shown that physical climate analyses, such as the aforementioned

study of heat waves, must be assessed within a complex fabric of other social and

environmental factors

(Poumadere et al.,

2005).An example is

the general increase in

financial losses due to

hurricanes over the

past century, which is

probably attributable

more to expanding

coastal development

than to any changes in

hurricane characteristics

(Pielke et al., 2005). In

regions such as

18

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
central Africa, where the capacity to adapt to environmental variations is often

relatively low, recent research has shown strong correlations between year-to-year

climate variations and malaria outbreaks (Thomson et al., 2006).

These are a few examples of CCSP’s research examining the sensitivity and adaptability

of human and natural systems to climate variability and change. It is clear from this work

that climate variations can have both beneficial and adverse effects on environmental

and socioeconomic systems. However, future projections indicate that the larger the

magnitude and rate of climate change, the more likely it is that adverse effects will

dominate (NRC, 2002).

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage

risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

The Nation’s basic research on global environmental variability and change has pointed

toward a large set of important opportunities for applying the knowledge that is being

developed. CCSP is taking three main approaches for exploring and communicating

the potential uses and limits of this knowledge, namely the development of scientific

syntheses and assessments; adaptive management and planning capabilities; and methods

to support climate change policy inquiries.

One key focus of the program’s synthesis and assessment activities is its current suite

of 21 Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) products, which are intended to provide

current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public

debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future

direction and priorities of the program.The Decision Support chapter of this report

describes the S&A products more fully, including the first completed product—the

report on temperature trends at the surface and in the atmosphere referred to earlier.

Another important focus for the program’s synthesis and assessment activities is its

involvement in the IPCC.The IPCC’s major activity is to prepare at regular intervals

comprehensive assessments of policy-relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic

information appropriate to the understanding of human-induced climate change,

potential impacts of climate change, and options for mitigation and adaptation.

Approximately 120 U.S. scientists are IPCC authors and 15 are Review Editors.The

United States co-chairs and hosts IPCCWorking Group I, which primarily addresses

physical science aspects of climate change.The United States has also played significant

roles in theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) / United Nations

Environment Programme (UNEP) ozone assessments (WMO, 2003), the Arctic

Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2005), and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

(MEA, 2005), among others.

19

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
The second of CCSP’s decision-support approaches is the exploration of adaptive

management strategies.Activities under this approach develop and evaluate options for

adjusting to variability and change in climate and other conditions through “learning

by doing” and integrating knowledge with practice.This area of work grows out of the

insight that a key to assessment and decision support is close and ongoing interaction

between users and producers of information. Many adaptive management projects in

the United States are extensions of the first U.S. National Assessment’s stakeholderdriven and interdisciplinary collaborations (NAST, 2001).

One example of this work is an ongoing project that brings together researchers who

study climate processes and their effects on the U.S. Southwest with individuals and

organizations that need climate information to make informed decisions (Jacobs et al.,

2005). Numerous tangible benefits from this project have helped a wide variety of

decisionmakers, from State and local water planners to farmers to public health officials.

For example, the project developed a suite of products that make predictions of water

availability months in

advance, allowing water

managers to adjust reservoir

levels accordingly to meet

the competing demands for

this scarce resource.

Another example is the

combined use of satellitebased observations of fires

and moisture conditions

together with seasonal

climate forecasts to provide

information to fire

managers to help them

make early and effective

decisions about the

resources they will need to

cope with emerging fires and

fire-season dangers. One way

in which this information is

communicated is through

annual workshops targeted

separately at eastern and

western U.S. fire hazards,

20

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
which bring together climate scientists and forecasters with fire managers to produce

seasonal fire outlooks (see <www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/conferences/NSAW>).

There are many other examples of the exploratory use of seasonal-to-interannual

climate information for decisionmaking both domestically and internationally.

In addition to CCSP’s work on adaptive management at seasonal-to-interannual time

scales, the program is also developing valuable information for long-term (decades to

centuries) adaptation issues. One example is the program’s analyses of ways in which

agricultural practices might be adjusted to take advantage of rising CO2 levels and to

cope with potentially warmer temperatures and decreased moisture availability

(Boote et al., 2005). Recent work has shown that sufficient variability exists within

some crop species to begin selecting for crop varieties that could maintain or increase

yields in a future enhanced-CO2 environment.

CCSP’s third decision-support approach is to help inform inquiries related to climate

change policy, in part by using comparative analyses of climate change scenarios.

One example is a collaboration between climate scientists and NewYork City water

infrastructure planners that is using regional-scale hydrologic scenarios to inform the

long-lasting investments that are being considered in the modernization of the city’s

water supply system (see <www.ccsr.columbia.edu/cig/taskforce>).Another example

is the application of carbon cycle research to assess the potential feasibility, magnitude,

and permanence of a variety of different carbon sequestration options (Sarmiento et al.,

1999).An initial result from this line of work is the preliminary conclusion that the

restoration of inland wetlands could be a particularly efficient means for sequestering

carbon in North American prairie lands (Euliss et al., 2006).

Another important way in which CCSP is helping to inform climate change policy

inquiries is through integrated assessment modeling, which considers the social and

economic factors that may lead to climate change (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) and

the resultant effects of those activities on the Earth system and human welfare.These

models are useful for considering the costs and effects of various policy options. One

important result of this work suggests that reducing emissions of greenhouse gases

other than CO2 could be an economically efficient first step in reducing the overall

atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases (Hansen and Sato, 2004).Another important

new set of analyses assesses various policy options while accounting for inherent

scientific and economic uncertainty (Webster et al., 2003).

21

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
The preceding descriptions provide a thumbnail sketch of the progress CCSP has

made toward its goals. However, an important body of work remains within each of

these goals that still must be tackled if this Nation is to be fully equipped to wisely

address the challenges posed by global environmental variability and change.The

CCSP Strategic Plan articulates this research agenda, and the research element

chapters of this report outline specific examples of work proposed for FY 2007.The

research element chapters also include updates on CCSP research-product preparation,

milestones, and activities, with reference to the research focus areas for each goal.

CCSP FY 2007 FOCUS AREAS

An important step in coordinating the CCSP budget for FY 2007 has been to align

the agency climate programs with the goals and key research focus areas in the

CCSP Strategic Plan, thus helping to ensure consistency.The emphasis is on ensuring

alignment of current funding with a recommended list of priorities and identifying

gaps that may occur, as well as identifying measurable milestones and deliverables that

reflect accountability toward meeting program goals.

Within the framework provided by the CCSP Strategic Plan, there is a continual

assessment and refinement of program priorities and activities by means of identified

new initiatives and other evolutionary redirections. CCSP aspires to refresh programs

during each budget cycle such that over a 5-year period, approximately one-third of

CCSP research and observation activities will support new initiatives. Since many

research activities involve long-term programs, this refresh rate is representative of

the desired balance between program continuity to address complex, long-term

issues, and program priorities to respond to new information needs as they arise.

Based in part on the analysis of program progress to date and mindful of its priorities

in recent years, CCSP has developed a set of near-term focus areas for FY 2007.These

focus areas, which constitute only a fraction of the program’s overall priorities, are

areas in which interagency cooperation is particularly needed and likely to produce

significant advances.The focus areas are listed here in the same order as the research

elements described in the CCSP Strategic Plan and in the order these research elements

appear in this document.

Aerosols-Clouds-Climate: Integrating New Remote-Sensing Observations with Expanded

In Situ Observations to Advance the Next Generation of Climate Prediction Capabilities.

The key objectives of this focus area are to quantify the uncertainty related to aerosolcloud interactions and to develop for the first time a consensus best estimate of the

current magnitude of uncertainty resulting from the effects of aerosols on clouds.This

22

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
focus area will capitalize on the first global measurements of aerosol and cloud vertical

distributions and properties (i.e., the NASA enhanced “A-train” satellite formation),

expanded in situ observations (e.g., NOAA’s expanded in situ observation capabilities),

and laboratory and controlled condition characterization of aerosols and their properties,

data analysis, and modeling.

Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability.The purpose of this

focus area is to improve the scientific capacity to assimilate current and planned future

observations from disparate observing systems into Earth system models that include

physical, chemical, and biological processes, in order to produce the best possible

synthesized description of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving over

time.This capability will provide a vital information base for diagnosing and improving

climate models; understanding the causes and impacts of climate variability and

change; improving estimates of sources, sinks, and budgets of important parameters

(e.g., water vapor, carbon); and, fundamentally, linking together the Earth system

observation and modeling efforts within CCSP.

Integration ofWater Cycle Observations, Research,and Modeling:A Prototype Project.

The purpose of this focus area is to address significant uncertainties associated with

the water cycle through a study that comprehensively addresses the water budget

within a limited spatial and temporal domain.The core of this prototype activity is

DOE’s proposed month-long field campaign at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement

(ARM) site in the southern Great Plains [i.e., the Cloud and LAnd Surface Interactions

Campaign (CLASIC)].The campaign will feature concurrent contributions from

NASA, NOAA, NSF, USGS, USDA, EPA, and others to extend CLASIC’s time and

space domain to capture the seasonal time scale and regional processes, and expand

the observational framework by adding space-based observations, aircraft campaigns,

surface and subsurface hydrologic components, isotopic measurements, CO2 fluxes,

and associated modeling.

Global Landsat Data for Answering Critical Climate Questions.

The purpose of this focus area is to acquire Landsat-like global

data for addressing critical climate research questions.Although

a scan line malfunction has occurred on Landsat 7, it continues

to collect global data. NASA and USGS are investigating

alternative sources for Landsat-like data, but have not found a

substitute that provides globally available satellite data at spatial

scales of tens of meters.These data are required to document

land use, land-cover change, glacier extent, and movements of

ice sheets, and to address a wide variety of other questions

23

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
related to climate variability and change.The focus will be on acquiring a global

collection of data from other satellites.

North American Carbon Program Integration.The key objective of this focus area is to

quantify the carbon budget for the North American region.The research involves

integration of remote observations, in situ measurements, and models of the

atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components of the carbon cycle to quantify

carbon budgets at multiple spatial and temporal scales.This information is essential for

developing successful carbon management strategies and reducing the uncertainties in

quantifying carbon cycle dynamics.These scientific challenges are addressed in this

focus area, which involves the North American Carbon Program (NACP), the Ocean

Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC) Program, and a State of the Carbon Cycle Report

that will provide the first integrated analysis of the North American carbon cycle.The

research will result in a stronger scientific basis for developing technical and policy

options for managing carbon.

Impacts of ClimateVariability and Change on Ecosystem

Productivity and Biodiversity.The purpose of this focus area is

to increase understanding of the relationship between climate

change and ecosystem productivity and biodiversity.A key

element is the development of predictive models, at various

spatial scales, to provide forecasts for aquatic and terrestrial

ecosystems. Emphasis will be placed on ecosystems important

to society such as forests, agricultural systems, rangelands,

wetlands, fisheries, coral reefs, and alpine, river, estuary, and

marine ecosystems. Emphasis will also be placed on regions

where abrupt environmental changes may occur, such as

high-elevation and high-latitude ecosystems (e.g., western U.S. mountain and arctic

systems).

Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships.The objective of

this focus area is to understand how information about near-term climate variability

and longer term climate trends can best be used to aid decisionmakers in coping

with drought.The approach will include the development of methods, models, and

mechanisms for integrating climate information into analyses of the social and

economic consequences of drought as well as the policymaking and decisionmaking

processes in the face of drought. Climate information utilized in this effort may include

paleoclimatic and historical information about climate and its impacts, predictions

based on seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, recent trends, and future projections

of decadal variability and climate change. Social and economic impact analyses utilized

24

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
in this effort may include historical perspectives and near-term trends (e.g., projections

of water conflicts, water demand, population changes, land-use shifts).

International PolarYear.The International Polar

Year (IPY) will be an international suite of

coordinated research projects, involving more

than 50 nations, planned for 2007 and 2008 in

both Arctic and Antarctic polar regions to

address the strong links these regions have

with the rest of the globe. It will emphasize

multidisciplinary research across a wide range of

disciplines, including societal and health issues

and how these are related to the accelerating

changes in the polar environment. Research

will focus on a wide range of issues, including

trends in extent and thickness of the polar ice

sheets and sea ice, polar atmospheric variability,

export of continental emissions to the polar

regions, changes in the chemical composition of the polar atmosphere, and changing

permafrost conditions.

Integrated Ocean Observing System.The international community is developing a strategy

for a global ocean observing system in cooperation with the Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission (IOC),WMO, the JointWMO/IOCTechnical

Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, and UNEP.A major U.S.

contribution to this is the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), supported by

the Administration’s U.S. Ocean Action Plan.The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated

Earth Observation System provides a framework for understanding connections between

IOOS and the broader GEOSS. Products from IOOS—such as tsunami warnings,

harmful algal bloom forecasts, and real-time navigation services—are already

demonstrating their value to the economy, human health, and public safety.Although

funding for IOOS is largely outside of the CCSP budget, its strategy is consistent with

the requirements for ocean observations in climate research.

One theme shared by many of these focus areas is the improvement of the capacity for

Earth system modeling and data integration. Benefits from this integrating theme are

expected to include: (a) improvements in climate predictions through advances in

model coupling, model components, data assimilation, model parameterizations, and

model initialization; (b) improved ability to estimate sources, sinks, and fluxes of key

environmental constituents (e.g., carbon, water) required for making many different

25

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
types of informed decisions such as those regarding carbon sequestration and drought

mitigation; (c) improved ability to estimate the effects of climate variability and change

on human and natural systems; and (d) improved understanding of Earth system

processes, including component interactions, which will provide vital underpinning

for future scientific advances.These advances in Earth system modeling and data

integration are also critical to the ultimate success of the U.S. Integrated Earth

Observation System.

DECISION SUPPORT: INFORMATION TO SUPPORT POLICY

DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

CCSP sponsors and conducts research that is ultimately related to policy and adaptive

management decisionmaking. CCSP’s decision-support approach is guided by several

general principles, including:

• Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders

• Explicit treatment of uncertainties

• Transparent public review of analysis questions, methods, and draft results

• Evaluation of lessons learned from ongoing and prior decision-support and

assessment activities.

CCSPWorkshop

CCSP held a workshop, Climate Science in Support of Decisionmaking, in November

2005 in which over 700 individuals participated, including an international audience

of climate scientists, decisionmakers, and users

of information on climate variability and

change.A variety of sessions addressed recent

and ongoing global change assessments, the

application of climate science to adaptive

management, and the use of climate information

in analyses of policy options. Participants

provided positive feedback on this set of

opportunities to learn about CCSP’s activities

and exchange information with scientists,

decisionmakers, and other stakeholders. CCSP

will use insights from the workshop to guide

current and future CCSP decision-support

activities, including future forums for dialog on

this aspect of the program.

26

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
Synthesis and Assessment Products

CCSP is generating synthesis and assessment products to support informed discussion

and decisionmaking on climate variability and change by policymakers, resource

managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public.The first of these reports, on

temperature trends in the atmosphere and at the Earth’s surface, has been completed

(see ClimateVariability and Change chapter).

The synthesis and assessment products

integrate research results focused on key

issues and related questions frequently raised

by decisionmakers. Current evaluations of

the science can be used for informing public

debate, policy development, and adaptive

management decisions, and for defining and

setting the future direction and priorities of

the program.The synthesis and assessment

products constitute an important new form

of topic-driven integration of U.S. global

change assessment efforts.These products

will be U.S. Government disseminations,

subject to the provisions of the Information

Quality Act (Section 515 of theTreasury and General Government Appropriations Act

of 2001) and the Federal Advisory Committee Act Amendments of 1997 (PUB. L.

105-153, SEC. 2(A), (B), DEC. 17, 1997, 111 STAT. 2689.).

The Decision Support chapter of this report provides a description of each of the

products. More information about the products can be obtained from the CCSP web

site at <www.climatescience.gov>.

The synthesis and assessment products are being generated by researchers in a process

that involves review by experts, public comment from stakeholders and the general

public, and final approval by the departments/agencies involved in CCSP. Formal

endorsement of the products by the Federal Government will enhance their value for

decisionmakers and the public at large.The program has prepared guidelines that

describe steps to be followed in each of three phases of the preparation process:

developing the prospectus, drafting and revising, and final approval and publication.

This methodology for product development facilitates involvement of the research

community and user groups in ensuring that the products are focused in a useful fashion

and meet the highest standards of scientific excellence.The guidelines also encourage

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transparency by ensuring that public information about the status of the products will

be provided through the Federal Register, on the CCSP web site, and through other

means. If further clarification of specific issues is required, the NRC will provide advice

on an as-needed basis to the lead agency responsible for the preparation of each product.

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007

SUMMARY OF SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

CCSP GOAL 1 Extend knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and

improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and reconciling differences.

1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes.

1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.

CCSP GOAL 2 Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

2.1 A. Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations.

B. Global change scenarios:Their development and use.

2.2 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle.

2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.

2.4 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change.

CCSP GOAL 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future.

3.1 Climate models:An assessment of strengths and limitations for user applications.

3.2 Climate projections based on emissions scenarios for long-lived radiatively active trace gases and future climate impacts of short-lived

radiatively active gases and aerosols..

3.3 Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate.

3.4 Abrupt climate change.

CCSP GOAL 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.

4.1 Coastal elevations and sensitivity to sea-level rise.

4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.

4.3 The effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources.

4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

4.5 Effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States.

4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems.

4.7 Impacts of climate variability and change on transportation systems and infrastructure: Gulf coast study.

CCSP GOAL 5 Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to

climate variability and change.

5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions.

5.2 Best-practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

5.3 Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal-to-interannual forecasts and observational data.
Commitment to “Lessons Learned” in Decision Support and Assessment

To build on the experiences of earlier assessment activities, CCSP has requested that

the NRC carry out an analysis of global change assessments that have addressed topics

broadly similar to those encompassed by CCSP.The study will be approached in two

steps:

1) The committee will conduct a comparative analysis of past assessments that have

stated objectives similar to those of the CCSP. Specifically, the committee will

examine the strengths and weaknesses of selected past assessments in the following

areas:

– Establishing clear rationales and appropriate institutional structures

– Designing and scheduling assessment activities

– Involving the scientific community and other relevant experts in the preparation

and review of assessment products

– Engaging the potential users of assessment products

– Accurately and effectively communicating scientific knowledge, uncertainty, and

confidence limits

– Guiding plans for future global change research activities, including observation,

monitoring, and modeling of past and future changes

– Creating assessment products that are valued by their target audiences.

2) The committee will identify approaches (in terms of geographic scale, scope,

assessment entity, and timing) and products that are most effective for meeting

CCSP’s stated objectives for assessments.

OUTLINE OF RESEARCH ELEMENT ACTIVITIES

The CCSP participating agencies coordinate scientific research through a set of linked

interdisciplinary research elements and cross-cutting activities that encompass a wide

range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. Chapters 3 to15 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan contain more detailed discussions of the research elements as well

as activities that cut across all areas of the program.This report focuses on highlights

of recent research and program plans for FY 2007.

Atmospheric Composition –The composition of the global atmosphere has an influence

on climate and the ozone layer, as well as their relation to air quality, all of which have

implications for ecosystem vitality and human health. CCSP-supported research focuses

on how human activities and natural phenomena affect atmospheric composition, and

how those changes relate to societally important issues such as climate change and

ozone depletion. Emphasis is on developing the research and observing framework

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that will provide timely scientific information for decisionmakers in the climate arena,

both in the United States and abroad.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 3.

ClimateVariability and Change (including Climate Modeling) – Scientists are increasingly

recognizing that short- and long-term climate variability and climate change are

intrinsically linked. CCSP-supported research has made significant advances in

understanding the causes of climate variations. Substantial progress has also been made

in incorporating this new knowledge into frameworks for predicting future climate

variability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and for investigating the effects of

human activities on climate.A new generation of climate models incorporates

improved representations of physical processes, as well as increased resolution,

putting them at the forefront of international research. Despite these improvements,

there are still significant uncertainties associated with certain aspects of climate

models.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 4 and 10.

GlobalWater Cycle –The water cycle plays a critical role in the functioning of the

Earth system. Inadequate understanding of the water cycle is one of the dominant

causes of uncertainty in climate prediction.The water cycle integrates the complex

physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain ecosystems and influence

climate and related global change. New understanding of these processes will be

essential to developing options and responses to the consequences of water cycle

variability and change.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 5.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change – Land use and land cover are linked to climate and

weather in complex ways. Key links include the exchange of greenhouse gases

between the land surface and the atmosphere, the radiation balance of the land surface,

the exchange of sensible heat between the land surface and the atmosphere, and the

roughness of the land surface and its uptake of momentum from the atmosphere.

Because of these strong links, changes in land use and land cover can be important

contributors to climate change and variability.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 6.

Global Carbon Cycle – CCSP-supported research on the global carbon cycle addresses

scientific questions about the size and variability of the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes

of carbon within the Earth system; potential short- and long-term changes in carbon

cycling; and options for managing carbon sources and sinks to achieve the appropriate

balance of risk, cost, and benefit to society.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 7.

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007
Ecosystems – Global change has the potential to affect the structure and functioning of

ecosystems in complex ways.The role of CCSP-supported ecosystems research is to

increase the knowledge necessary to evaluate the potential effects of global change on

ecosystems in order to help society respond effectively to changes that affect the

goods and services provided by ecosystems. Research focuses on changes in ecosystem

structure and functioning, potential changes in the frequency and intensity of climaterelated disturbances that may have significant consequences for society, and the effects

of ecosystems on climate.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 8.

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contributions

and Responses – Decisionmakers and other interested citizens need reliable sciencebased information to make informed judgments regarding policy and actions to

address the risks and opportunities of variability and change in climate and related

systems.A wide variety of CCSP decision-support resources and related research on

human contributions and responses is targeted at that objective.The outcomes of

these activities are intended to inform public discussion of climate-related issues and

scientifically assess and expand options for mitigation of and adaptation to climate

variability and change.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 9 and 11.

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System (including Data Management and

Information) –The InteragencyWorking Group on Earth Observations has identified

near-term opportunities for improved observations in disaster warning, global land

cover, sea level, drought, and air quality, and has highlighted enhanced data management

as an overarching need. Such cooperative efforts build upon the current GEOSS,

including several new Earth-observing satellites, suborbital systems, surface networks,

reference sites, and process studies now producing unprecedented high-quality data

that have led to major new insights about the Earth’s climate system.The United States

is contributing to the development and operation of observing systems that will combine

the data streams from both research and operational observing platforms to provide for

a comprehensive measure of climate system variability and climate change processes.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 12 and 13.

Communication – CCSP’s member agencies support a broad array of communications

initiatives. CCSP has developed a strategy and implementation plan for helping to

coordinate and facilitate these activities.These efforts are intended to improve public

understanding of climate change research by disseminating the results of CCSP

activities credibly and effectively, and by making CCSP science findings and products

easily available to a diverse set of audiences.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 14.

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International Research and Cooperation – CCSP, through its working groups including

the InteragencyWorking Group on International Research and Cooperation, participates

in and provides input to major international scientific and related organizations on

behalf of the U.S. Government and scientific community. CCSP also provides support

to maintain the central infrastructure of several international research programs and

international activities that complement CCSP and U.S. Government goals in climate

science.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 15.

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2005: Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs.

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andT.N. Palmer, 2006: Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel ensembles. Nature, 439, 576-579.

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2007

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
36

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2007

USCLIVAR, 2002: Climate Process Modeling and ScienceTeams (CPTs):Motivation and Concept. Report 2002-1,

Scientific Steering Committee, U.S. CLIVAR Office,Washington, DC, USA, 4 pp.

VanRheenen, N.T.,A.W.Wood, R.N. Palmer, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Potential implications of

PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin hydrology and water

resources. Climatic Change, 62, 257-281.

Velicogna, I. and J.Wahr, 2005: Greenland mass balance from GRACE, Geophysical Research Letters, 32,

L18505, doi: 10.1029/2005GRL023955.

Velicogna, I. and J.Wahr, 2006: Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica.

Science, 311, 1754-1756.

Webster, M., C. Forest, J. Reilly, M. Babiker, D. Kicklighter, M. Mayer, R. Prinn, M. Sarofim,A.

Sokolov, P. Stone, and C.Wang, 2003: Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response.

Climatic Change, 61, 295-320.

Webster, P.J., G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number,

duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846.

West, J.M. and R.V. Salm, 2003: Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for coral

reef conservation and management. Conservation Biology, 17, 956-967.

Wittenberg,A.T.,A. Rosati, N.-C. Lau, and J.J. Ploshay, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate

models. Part III:Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 19, 698-722.

WMO, 2003: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2002. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring

Project Report No. 47, Geneva, 498 pp.

Wood,A.W., L.R. Leung,V. Sridhar, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Hydrologic implications of dynamical

and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change, 62, 189-216

Yu, H.,Y.J. Kaufman, M. Chin, G. Feingold, L.A. Remer,T.L.Anderson,Y. Balkanski, N. Bellouin, O.

Boucher, S. Christopher, P. DeCola, R. Kahn, D. Koch, N. Loeb, M.S. Reddy, M. Schultz,T.

Takemura, and M. Zhou, 2006:A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct

radiative effect and forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 613-666.

Zimov, S.A., E.A. G. Schuur, and F. S. Chapin III, 2006: Permafrost and the global carbon budget,

312, Science, 1612-1613.

Ziska L.H. and G.B. Runion, 2006: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and global climate change:

Assessing the potential impact on agro-ecosystems by weeds, insects, and diseases. In: Agroecosystems

in a Changing Climate [Newton, P.C.D.,A. Carran, G.R. Edwards, and P.A. Niklaus (eds.)]. CRC

Press, Boston, MA, USA, Chapter 11, 261-287.

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2007

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
HIGHLIGHTS OF

RECENT RESEARCH AND

PLANS FOR FY 2007
38

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

1 Atmospheric

Composition

Earth’s atmosphere is a complex mixture of gases and particles.Although most are

present at trace amounts of one-millionth or less of the total, those very small

abundances are sufficient to play a major role in regional and global issues that affect

the well-being of humans and ecosystems. Indeed, changes in atmospheric composition

are the drivers of major environment-related issues of today: climate change, depletion

of the stratospheric ozone layer, and air quality at the Earth’s surface.The composition

of the atmosphere is changing due to both natural and anthropogenic influences.The

changes have been significant in the approximately 250 years since the beginning of the

Industrial Revolution. CCSP is developing a framework for research and observations

that will elucidate the processes at work in our atmosphere and the way they influence

Strategic Research Questions

3.1 What are the climate-relevant chemical, microphysical,

and optical properties, and spatial and temporal

distributions, of human-caused and naturally occurring

aerosols?

3.2 What are the atmospheric sources and sinks of the

greenhouse gases other than CO2 and the implications

for the Earth’s energy balance?

3.3 What are the effects of regional pollution on the global

atmosphere and the effects of global climate and

chemical change on regional air quality and

atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems?

3.4 What are the characteristics of the recovery of the

stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining

abundances of ozone-depleting gases and increasing

abundances of greenhouse gases?

3.5 What are the couplings and feedback mechanisms

among climate change, air pollution, and ozone layer

depletion, and their relationship to the health of

humans and ecosystems?

See Chapter 3 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
39

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

atmospheric composition and hence climate, the environment, and human health,

with the ultimate aim of providing the scientific understanding needed to underpin

decisions and planning in the 21st century.

Great strides have been made in the last two decades concerning our understanding

of how atmospheric composition relates to the global environment.The cause of

the Antarctic ozone hole, first observed in the 1980s and initially a geophysical

mystery, has been conclusively linked to the trace amounts of human-made

chlorine- and bromine-containing gases released to the atmosphere starting

in the 1960s.The rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been

meticulously documented for several decades.The interactions between

natural emissions and emissions caused by human activity have been shown to

lie at the heart of the quality of the air we breathe. Increasingly, researchers are

taking up the challenge of understanding the complex interactions between issues

such as climate change, ozone depletion, and air quality. Better scientific understanding

holds the promise of enabling future decisions that will be effective across multiple—

and interwoven—societal concerns.

CCSP-supported research in atmospheric composition for FY 2007 will have a highpriority focus on improving the predictive understanding of the role of natural and

human-influenced aerosols (airborne fine particles) on the climate system.Aerosols

interact with radiation directly (by absorbing or scattering radiation) as well as

indirectly (e.g., by influencing the formation and properties of clouds). Unlike

greenhouse gases, aerosols can either warm or cool the atmosphere through these

interactions. Furthermore, the lifetime of aerosols in the atmosphere is shorter than that

of many greenhouse gases, therefore the time frame for responding to their influence

is correspondingly shorter than for the long-lived greenhouse gases.The understanding

of how aerosols influence climate has been identified as one of the most uncertain

scientific areas and a high priority for research.The interaction between aerosols,

clouds, precipitation, and climate is a specific focus of FY 2007 research in the

atmospheric composition component of CCSP. Research also focuses on understanding

the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (e.g., changes in water vapor distribution due

to human influences) in climate, as well as investigating the long-range processes that

transport and transform greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The overall research approach for understanding the role of atmospheric composition

is an integrated application of long-term systematic observations, laboratory research,

intensive field studies focused on gaining a process-level understanding of atmospheric

phenomena, and diagnostic analyses and modeling that advance predictive capabilities.

These endeavors are coupled with periodic assessments of understanding and development
of products that synthesize findings in ways that are useful to decisionmakers and

planners. Research is highly collaborative and involves partnerships throughout the

Nation and the world.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The following are selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSPparticipating agencies.

Upper AtmosphericWaterVapor Trends and Feedbacks.2,12,13 Climate

models predict that as ocean surfaces warm due to a warming climate, the increased

evaporation will moisten all levels of the atmosphere, especially the upper atmosphere.

Since water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, this moistening further increases the

warming. Models of Earth’s climate suggest that this serves as a powerful positive

feedback, more than doubling the sensitivity of the surface temperature to anthropogenic

greenhouse gas forcing. Regional moistening trends in the lower atmosphere have

been observed since the mid-1970s from balloon-borne measurements and are

strongly linked to changes in surface temperature. Upper atmospheric trends are,

however, difficult to assess from conventional observing systems, such as balloonborne sensors, due to fundamental limitations of observing capabilities. New CCSP

research has used data from the High Resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder

(HIRS) and Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) satellite instruments to evaluate upper

atmospheric water vapor and temperature trends since 1979.The observed trends are

consistent with those obtained from global climate model simulations; both indicate

moistening over this period.The observed results are starkly different from what

would be expected in a “no moistening” scenario, which would have greatly reduced

the magnitude of model estimates of future global warming.This study provides

strong evidence supporting the capability of current climate models to simulate this

important climate process, and adds to the credibility of climate model projections of

future global warming.

In other CCSP research, simultaneous observations of water vapor in the upper

atmosphere and cloud ice from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the NASA

Aura satellite have provided new evidence for another kind of positive feedback

through convective cloud-induced enhancement of the greenhouse effect in the tropics.

The work shows that when sea surface temperature exceeds 27°C (about 300 Kelvin,

see Figure 1), water evaporated from the warm surface is carried to the upper

atmosphere through the formation of towering cumulus clouds. Ice particles in the

upper levels of these clouds eventually evaporate, leaving increased water vapor

concentrations in the upper atmosphere.Analyses indicate that this cloud-induced

40

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
41

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 1: Sea Surface

Temperatures, Cloud Ice, and

Water Vapor. Observations of

sea surface temperature [from

the National Center for

Environmental Prediction (top)],

cloud ice [from Aura Microwave

Limb Sounder (MLS, middle)],

and upper tropospheric water

vapor [from Aura MLS (bottom)]

averaged for August 2004

through July 2005. These

products illustrate increasing

sea surface temperature

associated with increasing

convective clouds and

increasing upper tropospheric

water vapor. This convective

cloud-induced moistening of the

upper troposphere leads to an

enhanced greenhouse effect

due to water vapor—three times

larger than without convection—

exacerbating the impact of

global warming. Credit: H. Su,

California Institute of Technology/

Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Sea Surface Temperatures, Cloud Ice, and Water Vapor

Sea Surface Temperature (K)

73.0 303.0 300.0 300.6 301.8 302.4 301.2

Cloud Ice (g m-2

0 8 246

H O (g m-2

0 240 4 80 160 200 20
42

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

moistening of the tropical upper troposphere leads to an enhanced positive water

vapor feedback that is about three times larger than what would be expected in the

absence of the clouds. Figure 1 illustrate these relationships.These results indicate

that convection is an important, if not dominant, process in the previously identified

tropical “super greenhouse effect.”

A 350-Year Atmospheric History of a Climate-RelatedTrace Gas.5 CCSP

scientists have published a 350-year atmospheric history of the most abundant sulfurcontaining gas in the lower atmosphere, carbonyl sulfide (COS).The research provides

the longest atmospheric record of COS to date and shows how the atmospheric

abundances of this gas have increased and decreased with industrial sulfur emissions

(see Figure 2). Carbonyl sulfide is a relatively long-lived sulfur trace gas with both

natural and anthropogenic sources (the latter arising from a variety of industrial

processes). Sulfur in COS accounts for about 50% of the sulfate aerosol layer, the

atmosphere’s layer of sulfate-containing fine particles, during non-volcanic periods.

This layer affects depletion of the ozone layer as well as heating and cooling of the

atmosphere and hence climate. CCSP researchers analyzed Antarctic air trapped in ice

cores and consolidated snow that provided a record of COS concentrations back to

about the year 1650.These data suggest that atmospheric amounts of COS increased

substantially during the Industrial Revolution, but decreased by about 10% in recent

years as global industrial emissions of sulfur declined. Given that a close relationship

exists between the atmospheric history of COS and global industrial sulfur emissions,

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

COS Mixing Ratio (ppt)

COS Concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere

Year

Figure 2: COS Concentrations

in the Southern Hemisphere.

The blue line represents a

history of COS concentrations in

the Southern Hemisphere. Note

the rather significant increase in

concentration coincident with the

onset of global industrialization,

and the decrease more recently

as global sulfur emissions have

declined. This history was derived

from measurements of COS

trapped in ice at Siple Dome,

Antarctica (black points) and of

COS trapped in the snowpack

at the South Pole (red line with

grey error bounds). Modern-day

measurements from the South

Pole and Tasmania are indicated

with red circles. Open circle and

squares were not used in the

calculation because meaningful

dates could not be assigned.

Credit: S.A. Montzka, NOAA/

Earth System Research Laboratory.
the CCSP research suggests that human activities may have contributed to long-term

changes in the atmosphere’s sulfate aerosol layer.

Assessing and Improving the Inventories of Trace Gas Emissions from

North America.7,8The CCSP community has made substantial progress in appraising

the understanding of North American emissions of trace gases that are precursors for

the formation of aerosols and ozone, both of which have implications for climate as

well as for air quality in the lower atmosphere.The North American Research Strategy

forTropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) Emission Inventory Assessment, published in

FY 2005, is a detailed examination of current approaches to measuring, inventorying,

and modeling emissions of trace gases and an assessment of potential improvements to

those approaches. Findings of particular note regarding the U.S. National Emission

Inventory for mobile sources included: (i) carbon monoxide emissions are about half

as large as earlier estimates suggested; and (ii) nitrogen oxide emissions increased

throughout the 1990s,contrary to previous assumptions.Accurate estimates of emissions

are needed to understand the quantity of aerosols, ozone, and their precursors that

are exported from North America to the global atmosphere. Related CCSP research

has examined the chemistry of the atmosphere in the New England region, especially

with respect to pollutant emissions that affect ozone and aerosols. Findings show a

different mix of volatile organic compounds than had been expected; the improved

information will lead to a more accurate picture of the chemistry of continental air masses.The New England field research also documented the transport and transformation of

aerosols and their associated radiative heating effects as they were carried downwind

from their North American sources.This work will enable scientists to reduce the

uncertainty in estimates of the effects of aerosols on climate.

Remote Sensing Measurement-based Assessments of Aerosol Direct

Radiative Forcing.14 Greenhouse gases and aerosol particles influence the climate

system.While increasing greenhouse gases warm the climate system, aerosol particles

have a diverse set of both cooling and warming influences on climate. Current scientific

assessment finds that the net effect of aerosols is mostly to cool the climate system,

temporarily reducing the impact of greenhouse gases on warming. Even though the

greenhouse-gas warming is larger than the aerosol cooling, the uncertainty in the

aerosol effect is five times larger than the uncertainty in the greenhouse effect.

Reducing these uncertainties is critical to understanding of the climate system and its

future change.

Aerosols have both direct and indirect cooling effects on climate.The direct cooling

effect is due to the aerosol particles’ reflection of sunlight to space. Indirect effects

include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties,cloud distribution,and precipitation

that can cool the Earth by enhancing cloud reflectivity. Past assessments of the direct

43

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
44

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

effect of aerosols on climate were conducted through modeling efforts. Now,

CCSP research has assessed the direct impact of aerosols on climate through global

measurements. New satellite sensors introduced in the last decade, as well as the

Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), a global network of ground-based remotesensing instruments, have provided the opportunity to make a measurement-based

assessment of the aerosol direct effect on climate.A major scientific synthesis and

assessment of the aerosol direct effect on climate has been completed, published, and

served as a major resource forWorking Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) in the preparation of its Fourth Assessment Report.The paper

reviews recent progress in characterizing aerosols and assessing the aerosol direct

effect, focusing on measurements. High-accuracy satellite measurements of aerosol

properties have made it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol

direct forcing, especially over the global ocean. Measurements show that aerosols in

total reflect about 10% of incoming sunlight to space, much more than the models had

indicated.The human contribution to the global aerosol concentrations suggested by

the models agrees with the measurement assessment to within measurement accuracy

and is on order of approximately 20%.

This review also identifies several issues that require significant future research

efforts. Estimates of aerosol forcing over land are less well constrained than over

ocean. Uncertainties in estimates of aerosol forcing are also larger on regional scales

than on a global scale.The aerosol forcing under cloudy conditions remains relatively

unexplored and quite uncertain. In addition, knowledge of the much more complex

and probably more important aerosol indirect effects that modify cloud properties

and abundance is much less certain and near-term interagency plans reflect the high

priority placed on improved characterization of these aerosol-cloud interactions.

Improved Estimates of Organic Aerosols in the Lower Atmosphere.4

Atmospheric aerosols are involved in issues ranging from air quality to climate

change. Recent airborne measurements indicate that computer model simulations of

aerosol composition severely underestimate the actual concentrations of organic

aerosols in the free troposphere.The Asia-Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization

Experiment (ACE-Asia) was conducted in April and May of 2001.This large field

campaign included two aircraft focused on sampling Asian aerosols transported over

the Northwest Pacific Ocean.Three different teams of scientists made measurements

of organic aerosols in the troposphere, from the surface to around 6.5 km. Results

from the groups were very similar and showed that above 2 km, the concentrations of

organic carbon were 10 to 100 times higher than the computer models predicted.

However, the models were able to replicate adequately the concentrations of sulfate

and elemental carbon, other aerosols that were also measured from the aircraft.The

scientists believe that the underestimation of organic carbon by the models is due to
secondary organic aerosols, which are formed in the troposphere from the oxidation

of volatile organic compounds.They are long-lived and can therefore play a large role

in intercontinental pollution transport and radiative forcing of climate.

Relative Humidity and the Influence of Atmospheric Particles on

Climate.1,9,10 CCSP researchers have conducted several studies of how atmospheric

humidity affects aerosols and the implications for the climate system.The warming

and cooling effects of aerosol particles are among the most uncertain of the influences

on climate. Many factors affect how aerosol particles interact directly with light,

including the relative humidity of the atmosphere, which can affect the size of the

particles. CCSP researchers have conducted several studies that show that the chemical

composition of the aerosol is the overriding factor in how size changes with relative

humidity.Aerosols that are largely inorganic in composition, such as those containing

sulfate or sea salt, tend to take up water and grow larger in more humid atmospheres.

Consequently, they scatter more light and hence have a larger climate cooling influence

(shown schematically in Figure 3). On the other hand, aerosols that are primarily

organic are more hydrophobic, and their interaction with light does not change

much as the relative humidity of the atmosphere varies. CCSP research spanned a full

range of approaches, including fundamental laboratory studies, analysis of extensive

field measurements of aerosols in regions of Asia and North America, and modeling

investigations.The work has clearly demonstrated that not all aerosols are alike when

it comes to their effects on climate. Because aerosol composition was shown to be

such a major factor, one implication is that the climate effects of aerosols will change

as the aerosol ages and its chemical composition changes. Climate effects therefore

45

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Influence of Relative Humidity on Climate Cooling Effect

Organic-Containing

Particles

High Relative

Humidity

aaLow Relative

aHumidityaInorganic Particles

(Sea Salt, Sulfate, ...)

Low Relative

Humidity High RelativeHumidity

Figure 3: Influence of Relative

Humidity on Climate Cooling

Effect. Schematic contrasting

how relative humidity influences

the climate cooling effect of

inorganic versus organic aerosol

particles. Credit: A.R.

Ravishankara, NOAA/Earth

System Research Laboratory.
evolve as aerosol particles are transported from their original source.The research

has led to more accurate representations of aerosol interactions in climate radiative

calculations and will thereby improve the accuracy of estimates of the direct climate

forcing by aerosols.

Cloud- and Aerosol-Related Fundamentals Elucidated.6The interactions

between water vapor and condensed forms of water in the atmosphere underlie

many of the physical processes that govern cloud formation. Cirrus clouds, polar

stratospheric clouds, and the large volume of the atmosphere that has a temperature

below freezing are key climate-relevant phenomena that depend on the fundamental

physical properties of water vapor, liquid water, and ice. Furthermore, the formation

of aerosols and the chemical processes within them are affected by heretofore poorly

understood processes specific to water that is supercooled below the freezing point.

CCSP research has resulted in a comprehensive review of the fundamental physical

processes at the vapor/water/ice interface and an advancement of the parameterization

of those processes that are most relevant to

atmospheric composition and climate.The

work provides a first look at the full range

of temperature conditions relevant to the

atmosphere, yielding new perspectives on

processes pertinent to colder regions, such

as the Antarctic stratosphere, that had not

been previously considered.Various structural

forms of liquid water and solid ice are

shown to behave differently, thus research

has highlighted the need to represent these

aspects of real-world behavior in models

of atmospheric chemistry and climate. In

addition, the work has implications for

methodologies used to calculate relative

humidity in laboratory applications and in

the real atmosphere.

Smoke Suppression of Clouds: A

Climate-Related Effect of Aerosol

Particles.3 Improved modeling capabilities

have enabled CCSP researchers to simulate

smoke-cloud-surface interactions in biomassburning regions and to study the mechanisms

by which smoke suppresses cloud formation.

46

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
The model includes unprecedented treatment of coupled smoke aerosol-cloud-radiative

feedbacks in three-dimensional simulations of biomass-burning regions of Amazonia.

Absorbing aerosol particles, such as smoke particles, can affect cloudiness by

modifying heating rates and atmospheric stability, by modifying how much cloud droplets

are heated, or by modifying heat flows from the land surface. CCSP research has

evaluated the relative importance of these processes in continental areas, demonstrating

that the primary reason for smoke suppression of clouds is the reduction of surface

heat flow caused by the presence of absorbing smoke particles (shown schematically in

Figure 4). Further, the change in surface heat flow may cause changes in climaterelevant cloud properties, such as cloud amounts. However, the ultimate effect on

cloudiness is case-specific and is highly dependent upon cloud type, smoke quantity

and properties, location of the smoke within the atmosphere and relative to the

clouds, and the degree to which surface heat flows are reduced.The research has

helped to quantify a poorly understood aspect of the influence of atmospheric aerosol

particles on the climate-related phenomena of cloudiness and surface heating.

Ozone Layer Shows Signs of Recovery.11 New CCSP research has found that the

atmosphere’s protective ozone layer is no longer decreasing over much of the globe.The

work is based on several different satellite records and surface monitoring instruments.

Previous studies have shown that ozone in the topmost layer of the atmosphere may

have stopped declining. However, very little ozone is in these top layers.The latest

work focuses on the thickness of the entire ozone column above the Earth’s surface,

47

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Interactions among Radiation, Absorbing Aerosols, and Cloud Formation

1) Aerosols absorb and scatter solar

radiation

Particulate Matter articulate Matter articulate Matter

Biomass

Burning Dust

Industry

Volcanoes

1) Aerosols absorb

and scatter solar

radiation

Incoming Solar Radiation

2) Incoming solar

radiation is

iminished

Surface Albedo

Clouds

) Heat from the land

surface is reduced

) Cloudiness

ecreases

2) Incoming solar

radiation is

iminished

Figure 4: Interactions among Radiation, Absorbing Aerosols, and Cloud Formation. Schematic showing the interactions among

radiation, absorbing aerosol particles in smoke, and cloud formation. Credit: G. Feingold, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory.
and therefore has relevance to the amount of harmful ultraviolet radiation reaching

the surface of the Earth. Using satellite-derived estimates of ozone levels, as well as

ground-station data from North America, Europe, Hawaii,Australia, and New

Zealand, researchers found that total column ozone amounts over the southern midlatitudes have stopped declining and leveled off, while amounts over the mid- and high

latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have increased since 1996.While the study

indicates the beginning stages of improvement in the ozone layer, ozone amounts are

still lower than those observed 25 years ago and full recovery lies decades in the

future.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2007

CCSP will continue to gather and analyze information through measurement, modeling,

and assessment studies to enhance understanding of atmospheric composition and of

the processes affecting atmospheric chemistry. Key research plans for FY 2007 follow.

Climate and Ozone Layer Assessments. CCSP research and leadership are playing

a substantial role in international efforts to assess the state of scientific understanding

with regard to climate and the ozone layer. Major preparation stages of the IPCC’s

Fourth Assessment Report are occurring during 2006, with many CCSP scientists

serving as authors and reviewers; the United States provides the co-chair of IPCC’s

Working Group I and hosts itsTechnical Support Unit. In addition, the international

assessment of ozone layer depletion was drafted and is being reviewed during 2006.

Publication of both the climate and ozone layer assessments will occur in FY 2007.

These activities will address Questions 3.1, 3.2, 3.4,and 3.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Climate Field Study in theTexas/Gulf of Mexico Region. In August and

September of 2006, CCSP researchers in several agencies, institutions, and academia

led and participated in a field program that investigated important scientific questions

that are common to both climate and air quality.The Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric

Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS) component will focus on providing a

better understanding of the sources and atmospheric processes responsible for the

formation and distribution of ozone and aerosols in the atmosphere and the influence

that these species have on regional and global climate.Analyses will continue in FY 2007.

These activities will address Questions 3.1 and 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Evaluating the North American Contributions to “Greenhouse” Ozone.

CCSP research will analyze ozone profiles measured across mid-latitude North

America during a 2004 climate field study, with the aim of estimating how much

48

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
ozone forms over the continent in the summer. Further studies will elucidate the

export of ozone from North America to the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Ozone

in the lower atmosphere is a greenhouse gas that affects climate because it absorbs

infrared radiation.

These activities will address Question 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Analysis of Ozone and Ozone-Depleting Substances Data Sets forTrends

and Ozone-Layer Recovery Detection. Decisions over the last 2 decades with

regard to the protection of the stratospheric ozone layer have resulted in declining use

of ozone-depleting substances (ODS).An important focus now is documenting and

understanding how the atmosphere is responding to those decisions, both with regard

to ODS abundances (which in general are in decline) and the ozone layer itself.

Satellite and ground-based data sets have established a multi-decadal record that will

be increasingly scrutinized for signs of recovery of the ozone layer via analyses of

ozone and ODS.

These activities will address Question 3.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Oklahoma City Field Study.A field campaign to study North American aerosols

involving CCSP scientists from multiple agencies is planned for the summer of 2007.

Anthropogenic aerosols are relatively short-lived in the atmosphere and therefore have

a high degree of variability over space and time. For this reason, a large contrast in

aerosol properties is expected to be found between the upwind and downwind

regions of their urban source area.The campaign will investigate the role of such

differences for a mid-size, mid-latitude metropolitan area in North America and the

consequences for the warming and cooling effects of aerosols. In addition, the

campaign will evaluate changes to aerosols as they move through relatively simple

fair-weather cumulus systems found over much of mid-latitude North America during

the summer months.

This activity will address Question 3.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Megacity Initiative: Local And Global Research Observations (MILAGRO).

The goal of the MILAGRO project is to characterize emissions,chemical transformations,

and aerosol and pollutant outflow from Mexico City, the world’s second largest

megacity. In 2007, CCSP scientists supported by NSF, DOE, and NASA will analyze

and evaluate data collected during the 2006 campaign. Field measurements involved

numerous ground sites and research aircraft, which along with satellite observations

provide information at multiple spatial scales, ranging from the urban Mexico City

“super site” to larger areas extending downwind into the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. scientists

together with university and government scientists from Mexico will review MILAGRO

data and analysis plans at a workshop in Boulder, Colorado, in FY 2007.The data will

enable characterization of the evolution of the Mexico City plume, including changes

in reactive trace gas concentrations; the evolution of chemical, physical, optical, and

cloud nucleating properties of aerosols; and the interactions between gases and

aerosols.These measurements and analyses should prove valuable for developing and

testing models of aerosol evolution.

These activities will address Question 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Improve Estimates of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing via Satellite Data

Analysis. Much progress has been made in using global observations from space to

assess aerosol radiative forcing.The lidar instrument aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar

and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite, launched 28 April

2006, promises to revolutionize knowledge of aerosol vertical distribution and greatly

expand knowledge of the effects of aerosols in the lowermost atmosphere. Efforts are

being made to develop methods

of integrating global satellite

observations with in situ and

surface data to fill in major gaps

in observations of aerosol particle

properties (e.g., how they scatter

versus absorb light), and to help

separate anthropogenic from

natural components. Further

advances in the near term are also

expected from multi-angle,

ultraviolet, and polarizationbased techniques for measuring

the amount of aerosols in the

atmosphere over land surfaces.

These activities will address Question

3.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

50

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
51

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) Baynard,T., R.M. Garland,A.R. Ravishankara, M.A.Tolbert, and E.R. Lovejoy, 2006: Key factors

influencing the relative humidity dependence of aerosol light scattering. Geophysical Research Letters,

33, L06813, doi:10.1029/2005GL024898.

2) Cess, R.D., 2005:Water vapor feedback in climate models. Science, 310, 795-796.

3) Feingold, G., H. Jiang, and J.Y. Harrington, 2005: On smoke suppression of clouds in Amazonia.

Geophysical Research Letters, 32(2), L02804, doi:10.1029/2004GL021369.

4) Heald, C.L., D.J. Jacob, R.J. Park, L.M. Russell, B.J. Huebert, J.H. Seinfeld, H. Liao, and R.J.

Weber, 2005:A large organic aerosol source in the free troposphere missing from current models.

Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18809, doi:10.1029/2005GL023831.

5) Montzka, S.A., M.Aydin, M. Battle, J.H. Butler, E.S. Saltzman, B.D. Hall,A.D. Clarke, D.

Mondeel, and J.W. Elkins, 2004:A 350-year atmospheric history for carbonyl sulfide inferred

from Antarctic firn air and air trapped in ice. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D22303,

doi:10.1029/2004JD004686.

6) Murphy, D.M. andT. Koop, 2005: Review of the vapour pressures of ice and supercooled water

for atmospheric applications. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131, 1539-1565,

doi:10.1256/qj.04.94.

7) NARSTO Emission Inventory AssessmentTeam, 2005: Improving Emission Inventories for

Effective Air Quality Management Across North America:A NARSTO Assessment. NARSTO 05-001,

NARSTO, Pasco,WA, 310 pp.Available at <www.narsto.com>.

8) Parrish, D.D., 2006: Critical evaluation of U.S. on-road vehicle emission inventories. Atmospheric

Environment, 40(13), 2288-2300.

9) Quinn, P.K.,T.S. Bates,T. Baynard,A.D. Clarke,T.B. Onasch,W.Want, M.J. Rood, E.Andrews,

J.Allan, C.M. Carrico, D. Coffman, and D.Worsnop, 2005: Impact of particulate organic matter

on the relative humidity dependence of light scattering:A simplified parameterization. Geophysical

Research Letters, 32, L22809, doi:10.1029/2005GL024322.

10) Randels, C.A., L.M. Russell, andV. Ramaswamy, 2004: Hygroscopic and optical properties of

organic sea salt aerosol and consequences for climate forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 31,

L16108, doi:10.1029/2004GL020628.

11) Reinsel, G.C.,A.J. Miller, E.C.Weatherhead, L.E. Flynn, R.M. Nagatani, G.C.Tiao, and D.J.

Wuebbles, 2005:Trend analysis of total ozone data for turnaround and dynamical contributions.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, D16306, doi:10.1029/2004JD004662.

12) Soden, B.J., D.L. Jackson,V. Ramaswamy, M.D. Schwarzkopf, and Z. Hunag, 2005:The radiative

signature of upper tropospheric moistening. Science, 310, 841-844.

13) Su, H.,W.G. Read, J.H. Jiang, J.W.Waters, D.L.Wu, and E.J. Fetzer, 2006: Enhanced positive

water vapor feedback associated with tropical deep convection: New evidence from Aura MLS.

Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L05709, doi:10.1029/2005GL025505.

14) Yu, H.,Y.J. Kaufman, M. Chin, G. Feingold, L.A. Remer,T.L.Anderson,Y. Balkanski, N. Bellouin,

O. Boucher, S. Christopher, P. DeCola, R. Kahn, D. Koch, N. Loeb, M.S. Reddy, M. Schultz,T.

Takemura, and M. Zhou, 2006:A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct

radiative effect and forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 613-666.

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CHAPTER REFERENCES
52

2 ClimateVariability

and Change

Climate variability and change occur across a broad range of time scales, from shortterm variations that contribute to droughts, floods, and changes in hurricane activity,

to longer term variations and changes that occur at decadal, centennial, and millennial

time scales. CCSP-supported research has focused on advancing understanding of the

causes of climate variations across this broad spectrum of time scales, and developing

new capabilities to predict future climate variability and project longer term changes

due to both natural and anthropogenic forcing. Increasingly, advances from CCSPsponsored research are being used to develop new climate products and provide sciencebased information required by decisionmakers, policymakers, and stakeholders to deal

with critical issues at local to national levels.

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Strategic Research Questions

4.1 To what extent can uncertainties in model projections

due to climate system feedbacks be reduced?

4.2 How can predictions of climate variability and

projections of climate change be improved, and what

are the limits of their predictability?

4.3 What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate

system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline

circulation, inception of a decades-long mega-drought,

or rapid melting of the major ice sheets?

4.4 How are extreme events, such as droughts, floods,

wildfires, heat waves, and hurricanes, related to climate

variability and change?

4.5 How can information on climate variability and change

be most efficiently developed, integrated with nonclimatic knowledge, and communicated in order to

best serve societal needs?

See Chapter 4 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
53

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

As defined in the CCSP Strategic Plan, the ClimateVariability and Change (CVC)

research component focuses on two broad, critically important questions:

• How are climate variables that are important to human and natural systems affected

by changes in the Earth system resulting from natural processes and human activities?

• How can emerging scientific findings on climate variability and change be further

developed and communicated in order to better serve societal needs?

More specifically, CVC research addresses the five strategic research questions listed

on the facing page in order to achieve the milestones, products, and payoffs described

in the CCSP Strategic Plan. Cooperative efforts involving several CCSP agencies have

led to significant progress in addressing all five of these strategic questions.The

highlights below provide a cross-section of some of the major scientific advances

achieved during this past fiscal year and illustrative examples of plans for FY 2007.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The highlights of recent research on climate variability and change presented here are

generally arranged by time scale, extending from paleoclimate through more recent

climate characterizations.Additional subsections illustrate important progress in

understanding fundamental climate processes and in identifying projected changes.The

topics “Climate Model Evaluation, Diagnosis, and Improvement” and “Detection and

Attribution of Climate Change” are given special attention in this section.

Paleoclimate

This section begins with an example of the use of paleoclimatic (i.e., prehistoric climate)

data to improve understanding of natural climate variability.

High-Resolution Records of Prehistoric Climate.4,10,30,37,42,44,56 Researchers

have developed new high-resolution data records detailing paleoclimatic variations in

ancient terrestrial and marine environments. Many of the records span the last ten to

twenty thousand years, and some extend back several million years.These records,

which are based on a variety of climate proxies (e.g., tree rings, pollen, fossil shells,

foraminifera, diatoms), are being used to document multi-decadal and longer term

trends in temperature and precipitation.This information is also being used to evaluate

climate system variability, such as the influences of solar variability, changes in the

position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),and effects of large-scale climate
patterns and processes (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño) on regional

climate. New data from rapidly accumulating sediments have also provided evidence

of abrupt climate changes in the past related to changes in deep ocean circulation and

other processes. Many of the records are the results of published scientific research

contributed to theWorld Data Center for Paleoclimatology, operated by the National

Climatic Data Center (<www.ncdc.noaa.gov>). For proxy information relevant to

surface temperature reconstructions over the last 1,200 years or so, considerable

effort has gone into testing the sensitivity of the reconstructions to the methods used.

Recent results are in general agreement with previously published hemispheric-scale

reconstructions and suggest that further improvements will depend more on the quality,

rather than the quantity, of available proxy data.This conclusion and, more generally,

the state of the science in reconstructing surface temperature records over the past

one to two millennia, was the topic of a recent report by a panel of the National

Research Council (NRC).

Recent Observed Changes

The following research highlights illustrate some recently observed climate system

changes.

CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Report on AtmosphericTemperature

Trends.6,31,45,48Taking advantage of new surface, satellite, and radiosonde data and

new model simulations of 20th century climate, CCSP Synthesis and Assessment

Product 1.1 addresses temperature changes from the surface through the lower

stratosphere, differences in these changes at various levels, and our understanding of

the causes of these changes and differences. It assesses progress made since production

of reports by the NRC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in

2000 and 2001, and highlights several fundamental uncertainties and differences

between and within the individual components of the

existing observational and modeling systems. It is

particularly relevant to the CCSP Goal 1 focus on

increasing confidence in the understanding of how and

why climate has changed.The study focuses on the

period since 1958, when upper-air soundings by

balloon-borne instruments started to become

widespread, and on the period since 1979, when the

satellite era of atmospheric temperature sounding

began. Conclusions include the following:

• Surface Temperatures – For global-mean changes, as

well as in the tropics (20°S to 20°N), all data sets

54

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
show warming at the surface since 1958, with a greater rate of increase since 1979.

The global average surface warming from 1958 to the present was 0.12°C per

decade and the warming from 1979 to the present was 0.16°C per decade.

Differences between various surface data sets are small.

• Tropospheric Temperatures – Global-mean temperature in the troposphere (the lower

10 km of the atmosphere) increased at about 0.14°C per decade since 1958, and

between 0.10°C and 0.20°C per decade since 1979. In the tropics, temperature

increased at about 0.13°C per decade since 1958, and between 0.02°C and

0.19°C per decade since 1979.All data sets show that the global-mean and tropical

troposphere has warmed from 1958 to the present, with the warming in the

troposphere being slightly more than at the surface. However, due to considerable

disagreements between tropospheric data sets since 1979, it is not clear whether

the troposphere has warmed more or less than the surface in the past two and half

decades. Evidence suggests that non-climatic influences remaining in some or all of

the observed tropical tropospheric data sets lead to biased long-term trends and

are responsible for the large range in the observed values.

• Lower Stratospheric Temperatures:All data sets show that the stratosphere has cooled

considerably from both 1958 and 1979 to the present, although there are large

differences in the linear trend values from different data sets. Stratospheric cooling

is expected from an increase in greenhouse gases.The largest differences between

data sets are in the stratosphere, particularly between the radiosonde and satellitebased data sets. It is very likely that the satellite-radiosonde discrepancy arises

primarily from uncorrected errors in the radiosonde data.

When state-of-the-art climate models are run with natural and human-induced

forcings, simulated global-mean temperature trends for individual atmospheric layers

are consistent with observations. Comparing trend differences between the surface

and the troposphere exposes discrepancies between model simulations and observed

data in the tropics. In the tropics, the majority of observational data sets show more

warming at the surface than in the troposphere, while almost all model simulations

have larger warming aloft than at the surface.

Several research efforts were catalyzed in part by the production of this synthesis

and assessment product during the research community’s input to its early stages.

One of these studies concluded that an error in the satellite data associated with the

55

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
day-night temperature cycle reduces the observed warming aloft.Another study

concluded that changes in instrumentation of balloon-borne sensors have introduced a

spurious cooling anomaly in upper air temperatures measured by those sensors.When

these observational factors are accounted for, the observations and models come into

closer agreement.

Melting Sea Ice.9,38,53,59 On September 21, 2005, NASA and the

National Snow and Ice Data Center observed the lowest extent of

Arctic sea ice (5.3 million km2) in the satellite record, which extends

back to 1978 (see Figure 5).This brings the estimated decline in

perennial Arctic sea ice to 9.8% per decade over the satellite record.

The period 2002-2005 showed ice extents that were approximately

20% below the 1978-2000 average—a reduction in area of 1.3 million

km2 (or twice the size ofTexas).The persistence of near-record low

sea-ice extent raises concern that Arctic sea ice may be in a continual,

long-term decline. Models driven by projected increases in greenhouse gases project a

decrease in summer sea ice of more than 50% over the 21st century, although such

projections should be tempered by the recognition that simulations of present-day sea

ice generally differ from observed seasonal and geographical distributions.According

to paleoclimatic records, there is no evidence of an ice-free summer Arctic during the

last 800 millennia.

56

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 5: Arctic Minimum

Sea-Ice Extent. MODIS color

composite image of the Arctic

showing the minimum sea-ice

extent in 2005 (white) and the

average of the 1979–2004

annual minima (yellow line).

Credit: G. Shirah, NASA/

Goddard Space Flight Center.
Declining North Atlantic Salinity.11 An analysis of oceanographic salinity data

indicates that large amounts of freshwater have been added to the northern North

Atlantic Ocean since the mid-1960s.This work quantified for the first time the volume

and time evolution of this freshwater intrusion as well as its extension into the Nordic

Seas and subpolar basins.The pattern of freshwater accumulation observed in the

Nordic Seas suggests it would take nearly a century to reach freshening thresholds that

could abruptly shut down the primary processes governing the meridional overturning

(thermohaline) circulation in the North Atlantic.This circulation pattern, which

consists of a northward surface component and a southward deep ocean component,

is particularly important because it helps maintain relatively moderate temperatures in

western Europe, among other things (see schematic diagram in Figure 6).

Fewer Days of Ice on Northern New England Rivers.20The total number of

days of ice on northern New England rivers has declined significantly in recent

decades, particularly in the spring. In a recent study, hydrologists examined data from

streamflow gauging stations in Maine, New Hampshire, andVermont that measure the

height and flow of rivers.They examined the number of days each year of ice-affected

flow—that is, days when there is enough ice in a river to affect the relation between

the height and the flow of the river.They found that the number of ice-affected flow

57

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

No A a c Cu ent

Norwegian Atlantic Cu ent

E Greenland Cur ent

abrador

Ba in

Da

Strait

Denmar Strait

Greenland Sea

celand

Sea

celand

Ba in

Norwegian

Sea

ram Strait

aroe-Shetland

Channel

-2 10 12

Temperature (°C)

minger

Ba in

Figure 6: The Atlantic

Meridional Overturning

Circulation. Topographic map

of the Nordic Seas and

subpolar basins with schematic

circulation of surface currents

(solid curves) and deep currents

(dashed curves) that form a

portion of the Atlantic

meridional overturning

circulation. Colors of curves

indicate approximate

temperatures. Credit: R. Curry,

Woods Hole Oceanographic

Institution (reproduced with

permission from Science).
days decreased significantly during the 20th century for 12 of the 16 rivers studied.

The total days of ice-affected flow decreased by an average of 20 from 1936 to 2000,

with most of the decrease occurring since the 1960s. On average, ice-out dates were

11 days earlier in 2000 compared to 1936, again with most of the change occurring

since the 1960s.The changes are consistent with warming temperatures in the late

winter and spring in New England during the last 30 to 40 years.Another study of

lakes in the region showed that ice-out dates were approximately 5 days earlier in

2000 compared to 1968 in northern and mountainous areas of Maine and New

Hampshire and approximately 13 days earlier in more southerly areas of these states.

Hurricane IntensityTrends.13,14,23,40,41,54 A pair of studies suggests a global

average increase in the overall intensity, but not frequency, of hurricanes over

approximately the last three decades. One study found a trend toward increasing

potential destructiveness of tropical storms, as measured by “total power dissipation”

measured over the lifetime of the storms. Changes in potential destructiveness were

highly correlated with long-term trends in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)

over this period.A second study found a large increase in the number and proportion

of hurricanes reaching very intense status, as defined by Saffir-Simpson categories 4

and 5, with the greatest increases occurring in the North Pacific, Indian, and southwest

Pacific Oceans.As in the first study, the

intensity increases are correlated with

long-term increases in tropical SSTs

observed in the global oceans.

Interestingly, the overall numbers of

tropical cyclone days have decreased in

all of the global ocean basins except the

North Atlantic over the past few decades.

While these studies are consistent, the

results do not definitively link the trends

in tropical cyclone intensity to global

warming, and some experts caution

that deficiencies in past observations of

hurricanes preclude confident

identification of trends over this period.

Other work has emphasized the vital

importance of changing demographics

and land use in coastal regions in

increasing societal vulnerability to these

storms, independent of any changes in

hurricane intensity or frequency.

58

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
Fundamental Understanding of Climate Processes

Much of the work within the CVC research element focuses on improving fundamental

understanding of climate processes.The following research highlights are examples of

this type of work.

Vegetation-Climate Feedback.28,35While it is well known that climate is an

important driver of vegetation growth, less is known about the potential influence of

vegetation on climate.To date, two-way vegetation-climate interactions (i.e., feedbacks)

have been mostly studied using computer models with minimal attempt to investigate

observed feedbacks. Recent studies have made initial attempts to quantify the impacts

of vegetation variability on climate using observed data. One of these studies assessed

observed vegetation feedbacks on surface air temperature and precipitation across the

United States using satellite-derived vegetation data and observed monthly climate

data for 1982-2000.The results show that an increase in vegetation generally leads to

a substantial increase in temperature across the northern states, particularly in the

spring.The impact of vegetation on precipitation appears to be more complex and

relatively weak. It appears that an increase in vegetation over the major croplands of

the United States supports an increase in precipitation. Figure 7 illustrates these

responses.

Understanding and Modeling Ocean Mixing Processes.7,15,25,46 Ocean

mixing processes that are too small to be explicitly included in current climate models

are an important area of research, since these processes largely determine the rate of

59

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Observed Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Increase in Vegetation Greenness

-3 -1 -0.2 -0.05 0.05 0.2 1 3 -4 -2 -1 -0.05 0.05 1 2 4

Figure 7: Observed Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Increase in Vegetation Greenness. (Left) Observed response

of temperature to an increase in vegetation greenness, calculated from satellite observations. The units are °C per 0.1 FPAR (fraction of

photosynthetically available radiation absorbed by the plant canopy). This illustrates vegetation feedbacks on temperature resulting from

month-to-month variability in leaf and plant amount. (Right) Same as the left figure, but showing the response of precipitation to a change

in vegetation. Units are cm/month per 0.1 FPAR. Credit: Z. Liu, University of Wisconsin (reproduced from the Journal of Climate with

permission from the American Meteorological Society).
heat uptake by the ocean.Two U.S. ClimateVariability and Predictability (CLIVAR)

Climate Process and ModelingTeams (CPTs), supported by NSF, NOAA, and NASA,

have focused on improving the understanding and representation of ocean mixing

processes in climate models. One CPT is working on how to include in climate

models the ocean mixing that results when dense waters flow over steep ocean

bottom features, mixing with overlying waters. One region where this occurs is in

the North Atlantic (see the research highlight above on “Declining North Atlantic

Salinity”) where waters from the Arctic region sink and pass south into the Atlantic

and help form the meridional overturning circulation. Comparisons of modeling

approaches have been completed and evaluations of new treatments of these processes

in the models are underway.The second ocean CPT is studying the transfer and mixing

of ocean properties by small upper ocean features.These small eddies transport large

amounts of heat in the Southern Ocean and in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current

regions and modulate the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere in

these regions.A recent study shows that “salt fingers,” or filaments of salty water that

sink in the ocean, play a more important role in vertical mixing of ocean waters than

previously thought.

Projected Changes

The following highlights illustrate recent studies that have projected potential changes

in future climate conditions based on simulations by state-of-the-art computer models.

Rainfall Extremes.18,55 A set of recent modeling studies using the archived results of

the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report models indicates that what would be considered

a rare weather event at present may become

commonplace by the end of this century.

Furthermore, these rare events may increase in

severity far more than changes in annual average

conditions. For example, one study indicates that

rainfall on the wettest day of the year is likely to

increase more than changes in the average annual

rainfall under conditions of increased greenhouse

gases. Changes in such rainfall extremes may have

larger impacts on the environment and society than

changes in average annual rainfall.The results also

suggest that the signature of greenhouse gas increases

may be identified more easily from changes in

extreme rainfall than changes in average rainfall.

60

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
61

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Recent advances in climate model evaluation and diagnostics include the use of both improved coupled climate models and new diagnostic

techniques, and case studies of particular climate events—for example, the 1997-1998 El Niño. Researchers are working in a multi-faceted

manner to improve climate model simulation on a hierarchy of time scales using a variety of different approaches.The information learned

from these studies at all relevant time scales is being infused into the model development process. In this way, important processes that

contribute to essential climate feedbacks are being addressed in a manner consistent with the recommendations made by the National

Research Council in its report Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks. Examples of this work are provided below.

WeatherTime Scale

Running climate models in weather forecast mode continues to yield useful insights. Many errors in the climate simulated by the model are

the result of errors found in the short-range forecasts, making their diagnosis and improvement in this framework tractable. One such

problematic aspect of many climate models is representation of the day-night (diurnal) cycle of precipitation over land. Detailed diagnostics

of model simulations have been performed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site.At this site,

ARM data can be used to diagnose the effects of large-scale circulation and moist processes on the diurnal characteristics of temperature and

moisture.

IntraseasonalTime Scale

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability at time scales of 30 to 70 days. During the boreal winter and spring, it

manifests as an eastward propagating disturbance that affects convection (rainfall) over much of the tropical eastern hemisphere.The MJO is

a critical test of the ability of a climate model to correctly simulate tropical variability that most models fail to accurately represent.An

improved representation of the MJO should contribute to improved medium-range and seasonal forecasts over the tropics, and possibly the

extratropics. Recent analyses of models and observations indicate that simulating a realistic basic state is at least as important as air-sea

interaction for producing the MJO.Additional recent analyses found that the Southeast Asian summer monsoon must be considered as a

mutually interactive system with the MJO. By doing so, the onset of conditions that suppress convection (break the monsoon) over India may

be detected 5 to 10 days earlier than had been previously suggested.

InterannualTime Scale

A recent study used the 1997-1998 El Niño as a test case to analyze cloud-climate interactions in a state-of-the-art climate model.This climate

event was characterized by a drastic change in the tropical Pacific’s atmospheric circulation, with corresponding anomalies in cloud altitudes.

The study found that the model reproduced these changes well, including changes in the east-west structure of clouds.Another recent study

examined the structure of warm season hydroclimate variability over the U.S. Great Plains—a region of profound importance for U.S.

agriculture—and the extent to which the observed variability features are represented in state-of-the-art climate model simulations.The

study found that remote water-vapor sources play an important role in generating interannual variability in the observed Great Plains summer

hydroclimate.The tested models, however, largely depend on anomalies in local evaporation (precipitation recycling) to generate this

variability. Further understanding of the source of the models’ spurious evaporation is needed before they can be confidently used for regional

hydroclimate simulations and predictions.

CentennialTime Scale

Climate modeling groups around the world performed an unprecedented set of coordinated 20th- and 21st-century climate change experiments

in 2004 and early 2005, in addition to greenhouse gas stabilization experiments extending to the 22nd century (see description later in this

chapter), for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.The resulting multi-model data set is a unique and valuable resource for international

scientists to assess model performance, model sensitivity, and model response to a variety of factors related to 20th-, 21st-, and 22nd-century

climate and climate change. Convenient and rapid access to this data set is provided through a specially configured web portal at the Program

for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison, which includes a catalog and an interface to the archive. Over 300 projects using the

archive have been registered, and over 200 manuscripts have been submitted for publication to date.The CCSP-sponsored Climate Model

Evaluation Project (CMEP) supported more than 20 projects specifically to analyze the models’ ability to simulate features of 20th-century

climate.The list of publications that has resulted from the CMEP activity is available at <www.usclivar.org/CMEP_awards.html>.

Refer to chapter references 1,5,16,29,32,33,36,39,43,49,51,57,58 for more detail.

CLIMATE MODEL EVALUATION, DIAGNOSIS, AND IMPROVEMENT
Estimating Future Changes in Permafrost.24 Analysis of 21st-century climate

change simulations with a state-of-the-art climate model (Community Climate System

Model, CCSM3) has shown that areas of permafrost may greatly decrease over the

course of the 21st century, with the area of decrease proportional to the amount of

warming, which in turn depends in part on the emissions scenario used in the model.

Such large changes in permafrost may provoke positive feedbacks such as activation of

the soil carbon pool and a northward expansion of shrubs and forests.

Tropical Ocean Response to GlobalWarming.27,52 Many studies have suggested

that tropical Pacific SSTs are most likely to respond to global warming with an El Niñolike pattern, characterized by stronger warming in the east than in the west. However,

a new finding from the most recent IPCC model simulations as well as past climate

records challenges this traditional view.A recent study suggests that the most robust

fingerprint of tropical Pacific SSTs in response to global warming is the so-called

Enhanced Equatorial Response, characterized by an enhanced equatorial warming

relative to the subtropics (Figure 8a). In comparison, the east–west difference in

equatorial SSTs shows little systematic long-term change (Figure 8b).This new finding

calls for a rethinking of the mechanism for tropical ocean response to global warming.

62

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Projected Sea Surface Temperature Trend

Latitude

0S 20S 20N 40N

1.5

1.0

0.5

Sea Surface Temperature Trend

(K century ) 2.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.5

a)

0.5

Normalized Sea Surface

Temperature Trend 1.0

1.5

2.0

Latitude

0S 20S 20N 40N

b)

CCCMA

CNRM

CSIRO

GFDL

GISS

IAP

IPSL

MIROC-h

MIROC-m

MPI

MRI

UKMO-c

UKMO-g

FOAM

CCSM

Figure 8: Projected Sea Surface Temperature Trend. Trends of Pacific sea surface temperature in IPCC model simulations driven by a

transient increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. (a) Sea surface temperature trend averaged across the Pacific at each latitude

between 40S and 40N, showing general agreement among models for enhanced equatorial warming. (b) As in (a), but with each model’s

temperature trend divided by each model’s mean trend over the Pacific Ocean, showing the robustness of the enhanced equatorial

warming across the models regardless of their individual climate sensitivities. Credit: Z. Liu, University of Wisconsin (reproduced from the

Journal of Climate with permission from the American Meteorological Society).
63

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Two related sets of issues being addressed by CCSP are the extent and causes of recently observed changes. Research on the extent, as well

as the characteristics of climate change (i.e., detection), is based on analyses of observational data from both in situ and remotely sensed

sources and comparison with historical and proxy records. Research on the causes of climate change (i.e., attribution) is based on focused

modeling and process studies.The modeling studies often use estimates of historical changes in human-caused and natural external forcings

(i.e., factors that may cause climate change such as greenhouse gases, solar output, volcanic eruptions, and dust particles) to assess the

relative contributions of the various forcings to the observed changes. Early analyses of this type focused primarily on globally averaged

surface temperature during the past century. However, recent CCSP work has utilized a much wider range of variables and has explored a

variety of new analytical techniques. Some of the climate variables that have been analyzed include regional temperature extremes,African

drought, atmospheric pressure, ocean temperature, precipitation, and upper atmospheric temperature. Examples of results from some of

these studies are outlined below.

European HeatWave

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at least AD 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were

reported in France, Germany, and Italy. It is not possible to definitively determine whether the 2003 heat wave was caused by, for example,

increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, since almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an

unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a

heat wave. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental

record in 1851, a modeling study recently concluded that it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled

the risk of a heat wave exceeding this threshold magnitude. Model projections of future climate change indicate that summers as warm as

that of 2003 in Europe are likely to be typical by 2040.

African Drought

Two recent studies have strongly implicated long-term variations in ocean conditions in producing prolonged drought conditions in the Sahel

and portions of central Africa during the latter part of the 20th century. One study analyzed 80 separate 50-year climate simulations from a

suite of climate models in which the only external driving force was observed SST.The results showed a very robust response across all models

in reproducing the observed precipitation patterns over Africa during this period.The drying over the Sahel during boreal summer was

shown to be a response to warming of the South Atlantic relative to the North Atlantic during this period, which favored a southward shift of

the ITCZ and accompanying rainfall.That study also evaluated a set of greenhouse gas-forced experiments conducted for this period as part

of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.The authors found that, while there were considerable differences among the model simulations, the

majority were unable to simulate either the pattern or amplitude of the 20th-century African drying, leading them to conclude that the

observed, sustained African drought conditions were most likely due to long-period, natural variations in Atlantic ocean conditions, rather

than to greenhouse gas forcing.

A second study with a coupled climate model forced with greenhouse gases was, however, able to reproduce much of the observed

African precipitation variability.As in the first study,Atlantic SST variations were found to be important in causing the Sahelian drought, but

in this model, the SST changes resulted largely from changes in the north-south distribution of aerosols during this period.The authors of

this second study suggested that anthropogenic as well as natural factors might have caused the 20th century Sahelian drought. Because of the

wide range of coupled model projections of future SST distributions in the North and South Atlantic, projections of future precipitation in

this region remain uncertain.These studies and others reinforce the need for improved understanding of sources of variability in the world

oceans to increase confidence in projections of future regional climate changes.

North American Droughts andWet Periods

Recent research suggests that subtle, prolonged changes in SSTs in the tropical oceans, especially in the tropical Pacific Ocean, may have been

responsible for prolonged North American droughts and pluvials (extended periods of abundant rainfall) in the 19th and 20th centuries.This

new work highlights links between decadal variability of tropical Pacific SSTs and major, high-impact events such as the 1930s Dust Bowl

drought, drought in the 1950s, the pluvial period in the late 20th century in the western United States, and the return to drought in this

region after 1997.The relationships were investigated using a large ensemble of 145-year climate model runs.

OceanTemperature

Observations show that approximately 84% of the total heating of the Earth system (oceans, atmosphere, continents, and cryosphere) over

the last 40 years has gone into warming the oceans.A recent study on the vertical structure of ocean warming trends over the past 40 years

DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
64

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

in various basins compared trends in climate model simulations with trends based on an updated ocean temperature data set.The warming

signal is complex, with a vertical structure that varies widely by ocean. It cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar

and volcanic forcing, but is relatively well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models (see accompanying figure).

Another study examining the warming in the oceans over the last century suggests that, in addition to greenhouse gases, aerosols (tiny airborne

particles) have played a significant role during this period.Aerosols may have delayed the onset of warming by several decades and reduced

the magnitude of the warming by approximately two-thirds when compared to the response arising solely from increasing greenhouse gases.

Refer to chapter references 2,3,8,12,17,19,21,22,26,47,50 for more detail.

DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE (CONTINUED)

Penetration of Ocean Warming Signal Observed Parallel Climate Model (PCM)

Warming Signal by Ocean/Depth. Anthropogenic forcing signal strength (green hatched region) compared to that obtained from

observations (red dots). There is excellent agreement at most depths in all oceans. The hatched region shows the range of the signal

strength estimates from five different realizations of identically forced simulations with the Parallel Climate Model. Credit: D. Pierce,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography (reproduced with permission from Science).
Climate Model Studies with Static Greenhouse Gas Concentrations.34 A

greenhouse gas stabilization experiment performed with two global climate models

(the Parallel Climate Model and the CCSM3) shows that even if concentrations of

greenhouse gases could be stabilized at present-day values, the thermal inertia of the

climate system would lead to further warming, and ongoing sea-level rise due to

thermal expansion of seawater.These modeling results indicate that if greenhouse gas

concentrations were stabilized at present levels, by 2100 sea level may rise about three

times the amount that has already been observed (see Figure 9), with continued sealevel rise for a few subsequent centuries.

HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2007 PLANS

Development of Integrated Earth System Analysis Capabilities. Research

across several agencies will focus on supporting the development of a national

capacity to provide integrated Earth system analyses, in order to provide an ongoing,

near-real-time basis for assessing the state of the global Earth system. Initially, these

analyses will be performed at a variety of temporal and spatial scales and with different

degrees of coupling between components of the Earth system (e.g., carbon cycle,

65

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Globally Averaged Surface Air Temperature and Sea-Level Change

Relative to 1980-1999 Base Period

Year

0

Percentage Change 100

200

300

400

980 2000 2040 2100 2020 2060 2080

PCM Sea Level

CCSM3 Sea Level

PCM Temperature

CCSM3 Temperature Figure 9: Globally Averaged

Surface Air Temperature and

Sea-Level Change Relative to

1980-1999 Base Period.

Results from two state-of-theart climate models (the Parallel

Climate Model and the

Community Climate System

Model) in which greenhouse

gas concentrations are

stabilized at the end of the 20th

century. Temperature and sealevel values are shown relative

to the averages for the base

period, 1980-1999. Credit:

J. Arblaster, National Center for

Atmospheric Research

(reproduced with permission

from Science).
ocean, water cycle, ecosystems). In future years, as observing systems and models

improve, this capacity will be supported by periodic integrated Earth system reanalyses

to serve as the Nation’s best assessment, or “analysis of record,” of how the Earth

system has varied over the recent historical period.These efforts will directly support

vitally important scientific linkages between current and proposed future Earth

observation systems and Earth system modeling capabilities.

These activities will address Goals 1 and 2 of the CCSP modeling strategy, Goal 4 of the CCSP

observing and monitoring strategy,and Questions 4.1 and 4.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications

(MERRA). MERRA is a specific example of the work being conducted on the priority

item mentioned above: development of integrated Earth system analysis capabilities.

The purpose of the MERRA project is to develop, validate, and disseminate a global

retrospective analysis data set, covering the modern era of remotely sensed data from

1979 through the present.The special focus of the atmospheric assimilation project

will be the hydrologic cycle.This project is expected to take 2 years to complete (see

<gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra>).

This activity will address Goals 1 and 2 of the CCSP modeling strategy

and Questions 4.1 and 4.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Carbon Data Assimilation (CDA).Another specific example of integrated Earth

system analysis work is a 5-year effort to develop a coupled Earth system assimilation

model for carbon and ecosystems.The first stage commenced in FY 2006, when a

NASA atmospheric model (GEOS5) together with a NOAA assimilation scheme was

installed on computers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to begin testing.The

GEOS5 model is compliant with Earth System Model Framework standards, which is

important for exchanging and intercomparing model elements.This activity is part of

DOE’s National Leadership Computing Facility (NLCF) Climate End Station climate

and carbon research. Future plans include coupling several different ocean models to

66

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
the GEOS5 atmosphere, as well as to a dynamic ecosystem model.With launch of the

NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite scheduled in 2008, this model

integration and evaluation will improve the characterization of carbon sources and sinks.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2,and 3 of the CCSP modeling strategy, Goal 2 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan,and Questions 3.5, 4.1, 4.2,and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Earth System Response

to Climate Change and

Variability. Research

will be conducted on the

response of terrestrial,

wetland, estuarine, and

marine systems to climate

changes at seasonal to

millennial time scales using

paleoclimatic proxies of

past climate variability.

These process-based studies

are designed to understand

the physical, biological, and chemical impacts of different climate regimes, as well as

leads and lags between different climate events and Earth system responses.

Paleoclimatic observations provide insights into mechanisms governing climate change

and variability at regional to global scales and key information to improve predictions

of future Earth system response to a variety of climate and environmental changes.

These data will also provide a context for evaluating data generated through emerging

integrated Earth system analysis capabilities.

These activities will address Goals 1 and 4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

and Questions 4.2, 4.3, 4.4,and 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

Database of Arctic ClimateVariability.A new database will be

completed of Arctic climate variability derived from paleoclimate

proxies spanning the past 2,000 years.The project synthesizes the

results of dozens of studies funded by NSF and other sources, with

the aim of reconstructing long-term variations inArctic temperature,

as well as reconstructing the natural variability that exists in

temperature, precipitation, sea-ice extent, surface pressure, and

other environmental parameters over shorter time periods (see

<www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo>).

This activity will address Goal 1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

and Questions 4.1, 4.2, 4.3,and 4.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

67

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
New Integrated Ocean Drilling Program to Obtain High-Resolution

Climate Records.The first phase of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program produced

high-resolution records of climate over past millennia from marine sediments. Recent

examples include the first recovery of central Arctic Ocean marine sediment records

and expeditions to drill methane hydrates, which may have been a cause of past abrupt

climate change.The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program will enter a new phase of

operations in FY 2007 with a major refit and conversion of the JOIDES Resolution, a

dedicated scientific ocean drilling vessel used for recovering sequences of sediment

and rock cores from global ocean basins (depicted in Figure 10).When the refit and

conversion is complete, the international research community will have a multi-platform

marine drilling capability, including the Resolution (a light drill ship) and the Chikyu (a

heavy drill ship provided by Japan), to retrieve new and longer records of climate

change from the deep seafloor in a new era of scientific drilling. Rapidly accumulating

marine sediments remain the longest, most continuous record of past climate and

environmental variability found on the planet and will be explored by the Resolution.

This activity will address Goals 2 and 5 of the CCSP observing and monitoring strategy

and Question 4.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

68

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 10: Integrated Ocean Drilling Platform. The dedicated JOIDES Resolution scientific drilling

vessel used for recovering sequences of sediment and rock cores from global ocean basins. Credit:

D. Anderson, NOAA/National Geophysical Data Center.
NARCCAP Data Analysis Phase.The North American Regional Climate Change

Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is part of a U.S.-Canadian/European collaborative

regional climate modeling study. NARCCAP’s primary objective is to develop, and

make openly available, multiple high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for

use in impact and risk assessments.Analyses of the scenarios, with a focus on North

America, will be conducted in FY 2007 to: (1) understand critical regional climate

change issues, such as the effects of increased greenhouse gases on the frequency of

various types of extreme weather events; (2) enhance understanding of key issues in

regional climate modeling, including methodological approaches; (3) conduct a

limited examination of uncertainties in regional and global climate model projections;

and (4) create greater collaboration between U.S., Canadian, and European climate

modeling groups to leverage the diverse modeling capability across these nations.

These activities will address Goals 4 and 5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

and Questions 4.3 and 4.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

ReducingTropical Errors in Climate Models.A multi-institutional project will

continue in FY 2007 to attempt to reduce errors in the tropics in coupled oceanatmosphere general circulation models.These errors affect the average SST and

precipitation as well as the structure and distribution of climate variability throughout

the tropics, and must be significantly reduced for coupled general circulation models

to realize their potential for climate prediction.This project began with an initial

workshop held at NOAA’s

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Laboratory in 2003 and a second

workshop at the Center for

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

(COLA) in 2005.At the COLA

workshop, several experiments

were agreed on, and progress was

reviewed in June 2006 at the

annual Community Climate

System Model workshop.

Descriptions of the first and

second workshops and ongoing

work are available at

<www.iges.org/ctbp>.

These activities will address Goal 1

of the CCSP modeling strategy

and Goal 1 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan.

69

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
70

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Development of the Next Generation of Climate System Models. In parallel

with continued research on the physical representations of climate processes, particularly

in the tropics,climate model development will concentrate on improving representations

of aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, the carbon cycle, land surface-atmospheric

processes, and middle-atmosphere dynamics and chemistry (Figure 11 describes the

development of climate models over the past 30 years).The products will be nextgeneration climate system models with enhanced capabilities to model more

comprehensively the interactive physical, chemical, and biological components of

the climate system.This work will continue over the longer term, leading to fully

interactive Earth system models.

These activities will address Goal 1 of the CCSP modeling strategy,

Goals 1, 2,and 3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and Questions 4.1 and 4.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Atmosphere

Dynamic

Vegetation

Dynamic

Vegetation

Ocean & Sea

Ice Model Sulfur Cycle Model Non-SulfateAerosol AtmosphericChemistry

Dynamic

Vegetation

Carbon

Cycle

Carbon

Cycle

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Non-Sulfate

Aerosol

Sulfate

Aerosol SulfateAerosol SulfateAerosol

Ocean &

Sea Ice Ocean &Sea Ice Ocean &Sea Ice Ocean &Sea Ice

Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface

Atmospheric

Chemistry AtmosphericChemistry AtmosphericChemistry

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Ocean Carbon

Cycle Model

Carbon Cycle Model

Land Carbon

Cycle Model

Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present Day Early 2000s?

Development of Climate Models over the Last 30 Years

Figure 11: Development of

Climate Models over the Last

30 Years. The development of

climate models over the last 30

years showing how the

different components are first

developed separately and later

coupled into comprehensive

climate models. Credit:

CCSP Strategic Plan,

Chapter 10 (2003).
71

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

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3) Barnett, T.P., F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, M.Allen,T. Crowley, N. Gillett, K. Hasselmann, P. Jones, B.

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IPCC AR4 Models. US CLIVARVariations, 3(3), 5-9.

56) Willard, D.A., C.E. Bernhardt, D.A. Korejwo, and S.R. Meyers, 2005: Impact of millennial-scale

Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: pollen-based

climatic reconstruction. Global and Planetary Change, 47, 17-35.

57) Williamson, D.L., J. Boyle, R. Cederwall, M. Fiorino, J. Hnilo, J. Olson,T. Phillips, G. Potter,

and S.C. Xie, 2005: Moisture and temperature balances at the Atmospheric Radiation

Measurement Southern Great Plains Site in forecasts with the Community Atmosphere Model

(CAM2). Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D15S16, doi:10.1029/2004JD005109.

58) Yin, J.H., 2005:A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century

climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(18), L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.

59) Zhang, X. and J.E.Walsh, 2006:Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from

the IPCC AR4 model simulations. Journal of Climate, 19, 1730-1747.

CLIMATEVARIABILITY AND CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
3 GlobalWater

Cycle

The global water cycle plays a critical role in the functioning of the Earth system.

Through complex interactions, the global water cycle integrates the physical, chemical,

and biological processes that sustain ecosystems and influence climate and related

global change. Inadequate understanding of the water cycle is one of the key sources

of uncertainty in climate prediction. Clouds, precipitation, and water vapor produce

feedbacks that alter surface and atmospheric heating and cooling rates, leading to

adjustments in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns—processes current

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Strategic Research Questions

5.1 What are the mechanisms and processes responsible

for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle;

are the characteristics of the cycle changing and, if so,

to what extent are human activities responsible for

those changes?

5.2 How do feedback processes control the interactions

between the global water cycle and other parts of the

climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how

are these feedbacks changing over time?

5.3 What are the key uncertainties in seasonal to

interannual predictions and long-term projections of

water cycle variables, and what improvements are

needed in global and regional models to reduce these

uncertainties?

5.4 What are the consequences over a range of space and

time scales of water cycle variability and change for

human societies and ecosystems, and how do they

interact with the Earth system to affect sediment

transport and nutrient and biogeochemical cycles?

5.5 How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision

processes in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies?

See Chapter 5 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
climate models do not adequately represent. Improved understanding of these

processes will be essential to developing options for responding to the consequences

of water cycle variability and change. For these reasons, water cycle research is a highpriority area for near-term activities within CCSP.

Priorities in FY 2007 include the planning and implementation of integrated projects

to aggressively accomplish the CCSP Strategic Plan goals for water cycle research.As

part of this process, the CCSP-participating agencies involved in the global water

cycle research element are defining a program of activities that will produce the

kinds of interdisciplinary breakthroughs that the water cycle science community has

identified as essential.These activities are organized around the need for comprehensive

coincident measurements of all aspects of the water cycle, including atmospheric,

surface, and subsurface observations. Observational data sets that capture key features

of the water cycle at the same place and time promise to improve estimates of key

fluxes and stores within the linked water and energy cycles, which are needed to balance

water and energy budgets. In addition, long-term records of water cycle variables are

vital for assessing changes in the Earth system. Strategies for implementation include

assembling long-term data sets of water cycle variables, including new tools and

techniques, reanalysis of existing records, assimilation of observations and model

output, and establishment of a network of observation stations with new capabilities

for collecting and integrating data for interdisciplinary research. In addition to

addressing CCSP goals, these ongoing and planned observations will support the

objectives of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and its U.S.

counterpart, the International Earth Observing System (IEOS).

The global water cycle research element continues to pursue important, long-term

priorities. For example, insights into the formation and behavior of clouds and

precipitation, including better characterizations of the phase changes of water in clouds

and the phases and onset of precipitation, are emerging from field campaigns and

model studies and will be promoted in continuing activities. Similarly, the predictability

of regional precipitation will be assessed and better understood by ongoing diagnostic

and modeling studies that identify the connections between regional- and global-scale

phenomena, land-surface conditions (such as soil moisture), and rainstorms. Results

from these studies show promise of leading to earlier (and more accurate) predictions,

improved ability to assess hazards and risks of extremes such as floods and droughts,

and more efficient water resource management. In this context, the results of

advances in coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models will be important.

The ultimate goal of this water cycle research is to provide a better foundation for

decisions and investments by policymakers, managers, and individuals.Achieving this

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
goal requires a program of activities that tests predictions and data products in real

decisionmaking contexts, demonstrates techniques and their effectiveness to potential

users, and provides tools and strategies to transfer the science from the experimental

realm to operations. Implementation of the CCSP Strategic Plan’s global water cycle

research strategy addresses these issues.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent research supported by the CCSP-participating agencies

follow.These research results address the strategic research questions on the global

water cycle identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan. Due to the overlap between the global

water cycle and other CCSP elements, some themes such as water vapor-radiation

feedback, an important component of global water cycle research, are elaborated in

other chapters of this publication rather than here.

Modeling and Simulation of

Cloud Processes and Cloud

Systems.11,12,15,18,23

Multi-Scale Simulations of Clouds.

Researchers have been experimenting

with a global atmospheric model in

which the conventional cloud

parameterizations are replaced, in

each grid column, by a twodimensional cloud-resolving model.

Figure 12 shows that the model

produces a simulation of upper

tropospheric cloudiness that is much

more realistic than a control run.

New Shallow Cloud Convection

Scheme. By comparing regional model

simulations with the observations

collected at the Atmospheric

Radiation Measurement (ARM)

Southern Great Plains andTropical

Western Pacific sites, scientists

evaluated the overall performance of

a recently developed shallow

cumulus parameterization scheme

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Simulations and Observations of the High-Level Cloud Fraction

DJF High-Level Cloud Fraction JJA High-Level Cloud Fraction

CAM mean = 35.0577

90E 90W 0 180

45S

90S

90N

45N

SP-CAM mean = 10.9958

90E 90W 0 180

45S

90S

90N

45N

ISCCP mean = 13.0049

90E 90W 0 180

45S

90S

90N

45N

CAM mean = 36.108

90E 90W 0 180

45S

90S

90N

45N

SP-CAM mean = 11.6067

90E 90W 0 180

45S

90S

90N

45N

ISCCP mean = 13.2095

90E 90W 0 180

45S

90S

90N

45N

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Figure 12: Simulations and Observations of the High-Level Cloud Fraction (above 400 mb). The left panels show results for

December–February (DJF), and the right panels for June–August (JJA). The top two panels are from a control run (CAM); the middle two

panels are from the experimental model (SP-CAM); and the bottom two panels show observations from the International Satellite Cloud

Climatology Project (ISCCP). Credit: M. Khairoutdinov, D. Randall, and C. DeMott, Colorado State University (reproduced from Journal of

the Atmospheric Sciences with permission from the American Meteorological Society).
under different meteorological conditions (see Figure 13).The simulations indicate that

the shallow cumulus scheme can accurately simulate both marine shallow cumuli and

the observed diurnal cycle of continental shallow cumuli. Sub-grid cloud properties,

the resolved thermodynamic structures, and the surface energy budget are simulated

well by the model.

Diagnostic Simulations of Arctic Cloud Systems. Scientists used measurements made

as part of the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) to evaluate the

performance of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) of the National

Corporation for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Atmosphere Model (AM2) of

NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the weather forecast model of

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Vertical Extent of Cloudiness from the ARM Radar at Nauru

7 20 26 29 23

a) Observed Cloud Boundaries and ICL (km)

0.5

1.5

3.5

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.0

b) Simulated Mass Fluxes (kg m-2 s

0.5

1.5

3.5

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.025

0.02

0.015

0.01

0.005

1 4 7 10 13 16

January-February 2000

Figure 13: Vertical Extent of Cloudiness from the ARM Radar at Nauru. Time series of the vertical extent of cloudiness from the

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) radar at Nauru (top panel). Bottom panel shows the vertical distribution of the cumulus mass

flux, which is an indicator of the vertical extent of the shallow cumulus clouds. Credit: P. Zhu and C.S. Bretherton, University of Washington

(reproduced from Monthly Weather Review with permission from the American Meteorological Society).
the European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) in simulating

Arctic cloud systems.The two climate models were evaluated under the framework

developed through a joint effort between DOE’s Climate Change Prediction Program

(CCPP) and the ARM program, the CCPP-ARM ParameterizationTestbed, which is a

diagnostic tool for evaluating climate models using weather prediction techniques.As

revealed in the study, the models simulate the occurrence of clouds fairly well, but

there are substantial errors in cloud microphysical properties.ARM data will be used

to suggest improvements for these models (see Figure 14).

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE)

a) Observed Clouds (%)

c) CAM3 Clouds (%)

b) ECMWF Clouds (%)

d) AM2 Clouds (%)

October 2004

10 18 22 14

665

865

465

165

265

365

565

765

965

10 18 22 14

665

865

465

165

265

365

565

765

965

10 18 22 14

665

865

465

165

265

365

565

765

965

10 18 22 14

665

865

465

165

265

365

565

765

965

Pressure (hpa) Pressure (hpa)

October 2004

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Figure 14: ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE). Temporal and vertical distribution of observed and simulated clouds

from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), CAM3, and AM2 at Barrow, Alaska, during the M-PACE periods.

Credit: S. Xie, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; S.A. Klein, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; J.J. Yio, Lawrence Livermore

National Laboratory; A.C.M. Beljarrs, ECMWF; C.N. Long, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; and M. Zhang, State University of New

York, Stony Brook (reproduced from Journal of Geophysical Research with permission from the American Geophysical Union).
New Model of Cloud Drop Distribution that Simulates Drop Clustering. CCSP

scientists have developed size-dependent models of the spatial distribution of cloud

drops that simulate the observed clustering of drops. Understanding of spatial

distribution and small-scale fluctuations in cloud droplets is essential for both cloud

physics and atmospheric radiation. For cloud physics, the coalescence growth of

raindrops depends upon size distribution while, for radiation, the spatial distribution

of cloud drops has a strong impact on cloud radiative properties. In contrast to

currently used models that assume homogeneity and therefore a Poisson distribution

of cloud drops, the new models show strong drop clustering, which increases with

larger drop size. Clustering has vital consequences for rain physics, explaining how

rain can form more quickly in the new models than simulations made with the former,

homogenous models.The new models also help to explain why remotely sensed cloud

drop size distributions are generally biased.

Improved Understanding and Modeling of Cloud Aerosol Interaction,

Cloud Organization, and Radiative Properties.17

Studying Stratus, Radiation,Aerosol,and Drizzle.The DOE’s ARM and

Atmospheric Science Programs and the U.S. Office of Naval Research conducted a

joint extensive field experiment at Pt. Reyes, California.The objectives were to

collect data from cloud-aerosol interactions and to improve understanding of cloud

organization that is often associated with patches of drizzle.

Simulating Radiative Properties of Ice Clouds. Scientists developed a model that

provides a means of predicting the radiative properties of ice clouds in terms of

explicit microphysical properties, such as the parameters describing a bimodal size

distribution that accounts for the smallest ice crystals and the various ice crystal

shapes in the size distribution.The ice radiative properties predicted by the model

code are being used in a development version of the NCAR CAM/Community

Climate System Model (CCSM), and it will be a candidate for inclusion in

CAM4/CCSM4.The explicit coupling between ice particle microphysical properties

and radiative properties also provides a better opportunity for investigating the role of

aerosol-ice nucleation processes in global climate processes.

Percentage of Global Land Areas Affected by Serious Drought Increases.2

Global Palmer Drought Severity Index data and offline simulations with the NCAR

land-surface model were used to study the potential drying over global land areas

associated with the warming during the last several decades.This study found that the

percentage of the global land area affected by serious drought more than doubled

from about 15% during the 1970s to about 30% in the early 2000s.Widespread drying

occurred over much of Europe and Asia, Canada, western and southern Africa, and

eastern Australia.The warming-induced drying has occurred over most land areas with

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
the largest effects in northern mid- and high latitudes. In contrast, rainfall deficits

alone were the main factor behind expansion of dry soils in Africa’s Sahel and East

Asia. Figure 15 illustrates these trends.

Mass Decrease in the Greenland Ice Sheet.13,19,21 Greenland hosts the largest

reservoir of freshwater in the Northern Hemisphere, and any substantial changes in the

mass of its ice sheet will affect global sea level, the meridional overturning circulation

of the ocean, and therefore the climate system.The Greenland glaciers cover an area

of about 1.7 million km2 (a little smaller than Mexico) and are up to 3-km thick in

spots. In the first direct, comprehensive mass survey of the entire Greenland Ice

Sheet, scientists using data from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity

Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measured a significant decrease in the

mass of the Greenland ice cap resulting

from a speeding up of the flow of

Greenland glaciers and accelerated ice

discharge. GRACE detected a volume

reduction in the Greenland ice sheet of

162 ± 22 km3 (39 ± 5.4 mi

3) per year

between 2002 and 2005.This is higher

than all previously published estimates,

and represents a contribution of about

0.4 mm (0.016 in) per year to global

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Linear Trends in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1948 to 2002

1948-2004 Annual Trend = -1.50

PDSI 50 yr

80 90W 90E 180

60S

0N

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

1948-2004 Annual Trend = -1.23

Soilwater.1m (mm) 50 yr

80 90W 90E 180

60S

0N

-15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15

Figure 15: Linear Trends in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1948 to 2002. These data products show drying (reds and

pinks) across much of Canada, Europe, Asia, and Africa and moistening (green) across the United States, Argentina, Scandinavia, and

western Australia. Credit: A. Dai, K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, National Center for Atmospheric Research (reproduced from Journal of

Hydrometeorology with permission from the American Meteorological Society).
sea-level rise as shown in Figure 16.The identical twin GRACE satellites track minute

changes in Earth’s gravity field resulting from regional changes in Earth’s mass such as

masses of ice, air, water, and solid earth that shift due to weather patterns, seasonal

change, climate change, and even tectonic events. GRACE has the unique ability to

measure monthly mass changes for an entire ice sheet—a breakthrough in our ability

to monitor such changes.

InterannualVariability of the Hydrologic Cycle over North America.1,5,6,22

Recent research findings indicate that dominant winter modes in the hydrologic cycle

are due to moisture fluxes associated with extreme precipitation events over the west

coast of the United States, and are controlled by strong El Niño Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) events, such as those of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 (El Niño) and 1989

(La Niña). In the central United States, moisture transport is associated with highprecipitation events and with moisture flux variability related to the droughts of 1983

and 1988.These research results are important because they point to a moisture storage

component.The results have been incorporated in a new precipitation-recycling

82

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Decrease in Ice Mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet

2004

Year

2003 2005

100

0

-100

-200

-300

Ice Mass (km3)

200

300

400

500

-400

Figure 16: Decrease in

Ice Mass of the Greenland

Ice Sheet from mid-2002 to

mid-2005. The rate of change

over this period of GRACE

monitoring represents a

decrease of 162 ± 22 km3 yr-1,

which contributes about

0.4 ± 0.1 mm yr-1 to sea-level

rise. Credit: I. Velicogna and

J. Wahr, University of Colorado

(reproduced from Geophysical

Research Letters with

permission from the American

Geophysical Union).
model that includes a soil moisture storage pool.The new recycling model was used

to study the variability of monthly precipitation recycling over the conterminous

United States from 1979 to 2000. Specific drought or flood years do not completely

account for observed variability, pointing to a storage or “memory” term response,

which subsequently affects interannual precipitation variability.To explore this soil

moisture control, a novel method is being developed to use energy fluxes estimated

from remote-sensing platforms to show that differences in energy fluxes (which drive

moisture fluxes) are related to soil moisture through deep soil layer moisture effects

on surface moisture fluxes. Deep soil influences on the uptake of moisture by plant

roots result in high transpiration variability and changes in the overall energy balance.

This potential vegetation response to a moisture storage pool plays a crucial role in

land-atmosphere interactions through water transport in the form of evapotranspiration

and root uptake, and carbon transport in the form of photosynthesis and respiration.

Results show explicit correlations between vegetation variability, as controlled by

topography, and the ENSO and North Pacific oceanic signals.Areas of vegetation

variability found to be associated with the ENSO signal are uncommon to previous

studies relating precipitation and temperature to ENSO, thus indicating a novel result

and pointing to the hypothesized moisture “storage” memory.The focus of the initial

phase of the analysis is on the continental United States to gain insight into general,

wide-ranging relationships, yet focusing on particular ecological regions with greater

vegetation variability.This will give further insight into influential mechanisms linking

vegetation, climate, and physiography at small scales.

Changes in the GlobalWater/Energy Cycle Associated with Changes in the

Carbon Cycle.10 Afforestation is the process of converting open land into forest by

planting trees or their seeds. It is generally considered beneficial for carbon sequestration

(at certain time scales), ecosystem protection, soil moisture retention, reducing

excessive surface runoff, improving replenishment of the groundwater table, and

possibly increasing local precipitation by increasing surface boundary layer moisture

convergence, among other benefits. However, these benefits need to be balanced

against the adverse impacts that afforestation may have in certain regions, depending

on local and regional climate conditions. In this particular study, a global analysis of

504 annual catchment observations showed that afforestation dramatically decreased

streamflow within a few years of planting.Across all plantation ages in the database,

afforestation of grasslands, shrublands, or croplands decreased streamflow by

180 mm yr-1 and 38% on average.After a slight initial increase in some cases,

substantial annual decreases of 155 mm and 42% were observed on average for 6- to

10-year old plantations, and average losses for 10- to 20-year-old plantations were

even greater (227 mm yr-1 and 52% of streamflow). Perhaps most important, 13% of

the studied streams dried up completely for at least 1 year, with eucalyptus more likely

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
84

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

to dry up streams than pines.Afforestation in drier regions (<1000 mm mean annual

rainfall) was more likely to eliminate stream flow completely than in wetter regions.

Mean annual renewable freshwater (percentage of annual precipitation lost as runoff)

decreased about 20% with afforestation. For many nations whose total annual renewable

freshwater is less than 30% of precipitation, afforestation is likely to have large

impacts on water resources.These results suggest that afforestation and carbon cycle

issues such as carbon sequestration need to be viewed together with their interfaces

with the water cycle.

Evidence for PositiveTrends in Moisture Recycling at High Northern

Latitudes Leading toVegetation Increases.3,4 Most observational indicators of

global climate change have been found directly in the temperature record or in physical

and ecological processes that respond to changing temperature. Researchers used a

tracer approach to examine the atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle by following

the moisture in global rainfall back to its evaporative sources over the last 25 years.

Along with the first detailed analysis and climatology of the global atmospheric water

cycle, their study shows evidence of trends in recycling at high northern latitudes driven

by changes in circulation as well as surface temperature.These trends are consistent

with observed vegetation-related changes and most evident where the density of

meteorological data influencing the atmospheric analyses is high (see Figure 17).

New Land-Surface Schemes in Climate Models that Include

Photosynthesis Show Improved Climate Simulations ofWater-Cycle

Parameters.8 A new physiology-based model of canopy stomatal conductance and

photosynthesis was included in the latest version of the Goddard Institute for Space

Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), Model E1.The sub-model includes

responses to atmospheric humidity and CO2 concentration, which were missing from

previous GISS GCM land-surface schemes. Measurements of moisture, energy, and

CO2 fluxes over four vegetation types were used to

test and calibrate the sub-model. Photosynthetic leaf

nitrogen was calibrated for each vegetation type from

flux measurements.The new sub-model resulted in

surface cooling over many regions that were too warm

in previous simulations. Some warm biases of over 2°C

cooled by more than 0.5°C, including over central

Eurasia, South America, the western United States,

and Australia. Some regions that were previously too

cool warmed, such as theTibetan plateau.A number of

precipitation biases were reduced, particularly over

South America (by up to 1 mm day-1) and the oceanic
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

inter-tropical convergence zone (by ± 1 mm day-1), while coastalWest Africa became

significantly wetter. Cloud cover increased over many land areas previously too clear.

Higher absolute canopy conductances and positive feedbacks with atmospheric humidity

were largely responsible for the simulated vegetation influence on the atmosphere. Highlatitude climate changes through the remote effects of increased tropical latent heating

(heat released by precipitating clouds) resulted directly from improved characterization

of tropical forest canopy conductance.The realistic representation of stomatal control

of land evaporation and evapotranspiration is critical for the accurate simulation of

atmospheric dynamics in climate models. Figure 18 shows seasonal maps of mean

precipitation bias.

Spring Trends in Recycling Ratio from 1979 to 2003

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 95%

MAM

Figure 17: Spring Trends in

Recycling Ratio from 1979 to

2003 over the High Latitudes

of the Northern Hemisphere.

Red and blue shades indicate

regions of statistically significant

trends with a confidence level

of 95%. Positive trends

dominate over North America,

with especially strong and

widespread trends over Canada

and Alaska. There are also

strong positive trends over

Scandinavia during spring and

over Britain and much of northcentral Europe during fall (not

shown here). Trends are generally

weaker and not as widespread

over Asia, where in situ

meteorological observations are

much less dense. Credit:

P.A. Dirmeyer and K.L. Brubaker,

Center for Ocean-LandAtmosphere Studies and the

University of Maryland

(reproduced from Geophysical

Research Letters with

permission from the American

Geophysical Union).
Correspondence between Observations and Streamflow Simulations by

Climate Models, and Future Streamflow Projections.16 CCSP scientists

analyzed the long-term streamflow characteristics in an ensemble of recent climate

simulations and projections by 12 different global climate models.They found

encouraging correspondences between observed historical and simulated patterns of

20th-century regional streamflow variations on multi-decadal time scales.The same

models project 10 to 40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata

basin, and high-latitude America and Eurasia, and 10 to 30% decreases in southern

86

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

GISS GCM Seasonal Mean Precipitation Bias

a) DJF 01-Obs 0.38

45S

90S

0N

5N

80 90W 90E 180

c) DJF N1-01 0.02

45S

90S

0N

5N

80 90W 90E 180

b) JJA 01-Obs 0.38

45S

90S

90N

45N

80 90W 90E 180

d) JJA N1-01 0.01

45S

90S

90N

45N

80 90W 90E 180

-9 -6 -4 -2 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 2 4 16 -1.7 -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 -0.1 0 0.1 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.5

Precipitation (mm day-1) Precipitation (mm day-1

Figure 18: GISS GCM Seasonal Mean Precipitation Bias. These products generated using the RA97 canopy stomatal conductance

sub-model in (a) DJF (-7.1 to +9.3 mm day-1) and (b) JJA (-8.7 to +15.9 mm day-1), and change due to new conductance sub-model in

(c) DJF (-1.4 to +1.5 mm day-1) and (d) JJA (-1.7 to +1.1 mm day-1). Observations over land from New et al. (1999) and over oceans from

Huffman and Bolvin (2005). Global means at upper-right corners. Hatched areas are significant at the 95% confidence level for a paired t

test. Credit: A.D. Friend, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement; and and N.Y. Kiang, Columbia University (reproduced

from Journal of Climate with permission from the American Meteorological Society).
Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, and mid-latitude western North America by

2050 under a mid-range scenario of greenhouse gas emissions leading to an atmospheric

CO2 concentration of approximately 530 ppm by the mid-21st-century.

Linking theTime Scales and Amplitudes of Groundwater and Surface

Water Flows to Global ClimateVariations.9The time scales and amplitude of the

hydrologic responses to climate variations depend on the time scales and mechanisms

of the climate forcings, on how closely the groundwater and surface water systems are

coupled to each other and to climate variations, and whether the overall hydrologic

responses in a given setting depend more on slower aquifer responses or more rapid

streamflow responses.An innovative study used a global GCM (ECHAM-T42) coupled

to a regional groundwater model (RGWM) of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin to

examine the simulated precipitation rates from the GCM for the period 1950 to 1993.

The study found that interannual to interdecadal time scales of ENSO and Pacific

Decadal Oscillation climate variations are imparted to the simulated climate-driven

recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated response of average

groundwater level to ENSO variations at a key observation well in the basin is 1.2 m

per °C compared to 0.9 m per °C in the observations.This close agreement shows

that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global-scale climate variations into

realistic groundwater responses. Figure 19 illustrates the spatial relationships and

groundwater budgets of components of the water resource extraction and distribution

systems for the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin.

The Groundwater Connection in the Amplification of Seasonal- to

Century-scale Oscillations in Closed Basins.7,20 A recent study shows that the

space-time components of runoff have a complex relationship with orography, where

the balance of precipitation and evapotranspiration interacts with the mountain-front

watershed to filter and

amplify runoff to the

Great Salt Lake.The study

examined the space-time

patterns of annual,

interannual, and decadal

components of precipitation,

temperature, and runoff

using long-record time

series across the steep

topographic gradient of the

Wasatch Front in northern

Utah.This region forms the

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
major drainage area to the Great Salt Lake.The approach used multi-channel singular

spectrum analysis as a means of detecting dominant oscillations and spatial patterns in

the data (see Figure 20 for a depiction of the spatial patterns). Results showed that

high-elevation runoff is dominated by the annual and seasonal harmonics, while lowelevation runoff exhibits strong interannual to decadal oscillations. In particular,

significant low-frequency components are found at intermediate and low elevations of

theWasatch Range.The research suggests that these results are due to mountain-front

hydrologic conditions supporting groundwater storage and base flow.The transmission

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Water Resource Extraction and Distribution System

Figure 19: Water Resource

Extraction and Distribution

System. (a) Diagram showing

components of water resource

extraction and distribution

system; and (b) generalized

groundwater budget for the

Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin,

Ventura County, California.

Credit: R.T. Hanson and

M.D. Dettinger, University of

California at San Diego.
zone, or the zone of streamflow loss to groundwater, was identified as affecting annual,

interannual, and decadal runoff components. Overall, the groundwater-streamflow

relation represents a “low-pass” filter for the precipitation/evaporation input signal.

The filtering effect is likely to be proportional to the scale of volumetric groundwater

storage in the mountain blocks and basin sediments.

Collaborative Research: Development of Informatics Infrastructure for

Hydrologic Sciences.14 Scientists associated with the Consortium of Universities

for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUAHSI) have developed a

Hydrologic Information System (HIS) that combines point data (on-site measurements),

spatial data (GIS-based geographical data), remotely sensed (satellite) data, and

meteorological data. HIS provides a “digital watershed” with access through a common

portal to a wide variety of hydrologic and water quality data collected by many agencies,

and with a “translator” that makes seamless connections. HIS will later be expanded to

provide hydrologic representations and analyses.With this hydrologic digital library,

users can find desired items through web-based searches and acquire them through

automated data acquisition systems.The goal is to allow the scientific community and

resource managers to access information needed to define fluxes and flow paths,

residence times, and mass balances—key elements for testing hydrologic hypotheses.

HIS provides data fusion for mating and communication among different formats to

form a coherent framework in space and time.

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Wetting and Drying Phases of the Great Salt Lake

The Wett ng Phase

The Dry ng Phase

Figure 20: Wetting and Drying

Phases of the Great Salt

Lake. Credit: C. Duffy,

Pennsylvania State University

and USGS for the original

Landsat imagery.
HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2007

Priorities of the CCSP global water cycle research element include continuing U.S.

and global observations, field campaigns, and experiments; improvements to data

integration and analysis systems; diagnostic and predictive model development; and

applications to decision-support systems.A fundamental objective of the program is to

ensure that observational capability is enhanced and improved, and that the data

assimilation and modeling/prediction systems are more reliable and accurate at the

point of application. Several promising results from recent research will be further

explored with an aim to transfer this knowledge to operational applications that provide

societal benefit. Concurrently, a cohesive research strategy will be implemented to

improve the current deficiencies in understanding that exist regarding many aspects of

the regional and global water cycle. Several scientific questions remain, ranging from

warnings of natural hazards to the impact of global climate change, be it from natural

or anthropogenic causes.The program outlined for FY 2007 will lead to improvements

in planning, decisionmaking, and resource management activities—a major aim of the

program. However, significant unresolved research issues will require longer term

efforts.To address these research and applications needs, several initiatives will be

launched in FY 2007. Following are selected highlights of FY 2007 activities.

Integration ofWater Cycle Observations, Research, and Modeling: A

Prototype Project. Following CCSP guidelines, an interagency “integrating” priority

project will be implemented (contingent on funds) as the first of similar activities that

are envisaged under the water cycle element over the next decade.The purpose of this

project is to address significant uncertainties associated with the water cycle through a

study that comprehensively addresses the water budget within a limited spatial and

temporal domain.This FY 2007 prototype project will integrate information describing

the state, fluxes, and variability associated with and across hydrologic regimes.To

accomplish this FY 2007 near-term priority, a number of agencies are planning to

contribute to DOE’s planned field campaign (CLASIC) at the ARM Southern Great

Plains site.The multi-agency effort will include space-based observations, aircraft

campaigns, surface and subsurface hydrologic components, isotopic measurements,

CO2 fluxes, research-mode modeling, and applications to decision-support systems as

a first integrated, interagency attempt to build the science and applications components

required to begin to “close” the water budget within a limited area.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, 3,and 5

and Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Participation in the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation

Study.The ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) will participate in the international

Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study in the Black Forest area in

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
summer 2007.The goal is to identify the reasons for deficiencies in the quantitative

precipitation forecast and to improve the skill of mesoscale model forecasts with

respect to precipitation.The primary goal of the ARM program is to improve the

treatment of cloud and radiation physics in global climate models in order to improve

the climate simulation capabilities of these models.These efforts have been enhanced

by the addition of the AMF to study cloud and radiation processes in multiple climatic

regimes.The AMF can be deployed to sites around the world for durations of 6 to 18

months. Data streams produced will be available to the atmospheric community for

use in testing and improving parameterizations in global climate models.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2,and 3

and Questions 5.1, 5.2,and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

The Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign.The Cloud and Land

Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC), a field campaign proposed by DOE for

implementation in FY 2007, will focus on interactions between the land surface and

the early cumulus life cycle, especially the stages leading from cumulus humilis to

cumulus congestus. It will cover a period of 1 to 3 months and will straddle the winter

wheat harvest when large changes in the land surface lead to large changes in surface

albedo, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux. By DOE’s invitation, CLASIC will be

developed further as an integrated, interagency project,contingent on FY 2007 funding

and on expressions of multi-agency interest (see next item).

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, 3, 4,and 5

and Questions 5.1, 5.2,and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Blueprint for an Integrated Observing Platform: Bedrock to Boundary

Layer and Beyond.The Science Steering Group (SSG) for the CCSP water cycle

element will develop a blueprint for a hypothetical integrated observing platform that

would be capable of quantifying all aspects of the terrestrial water and energy cycle.

The plan will be conceptual but with sufficient specific detail so that one or more

aspects of the platform could be implemented during one or more of the integrated

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interagency projects that the water cycle element may carry out over the next decade

of research and applications.The blueprint could also serve as a basis for deploying

terrestrial hydrologic observatories, and be used for the planning of field campaigns.

The conceptual plan will include observational requirements that derive from needs for

improved models of the water cycle, improved water cycle process parameterization

schemes, scale interactions, and improved characterization and modeling of fluxes and

transports in the atmosphere, land surface (including vegetation, streams,and reservoirs),

subsurface (including the water table and subterranean aquifers), and coastal zones.The

inclusion of remote-sensing and in situ instruments, fixed and portable, are envisaged.

Existing observing systems will form the substrate for the integrated observing platform

to which innovative technological capabilities and designs will be added.The plan will

make the case for the need for new and improved observational and modeling capability

to address known scientific challenges facing both water cycle research and applications

to the management of water resources (quantity and quality).

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, 3, 4,and 5

and Questions 5.1, 5.2,and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Integration of Space-Based Observations and Land Surface/Hydrology

Data Assimilation Systems.The GRACE satellite has demonstrated that large-scale

changes in the integrated column water content of the combined atmosphere, land

surface (including rivers and reservoirs), soil moisture, and groundwater system

compares well with the changes documented by the Global Land Data Assimilation

System. Investigations in FY 2007 will further explore whether GRACE data can be

assimilated by and/or provide integral closure constraints for the Land Information

System (LIS) to improve the water/energy cycle research and applications analysis

products generated by these systems.This will be done alongside data assimilation

work to incorporate other satellite data products (e.g., soil moisture, snow cover area

and water equivalent, and surface temperature) into LIS.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2,and 3

and Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Advanced Ensemble Multi-Model PredictionTechniques for Surface and

Subsurface Hydrologic Parameters. Expanded efforts will be made to calibrate

and validate research-mode ensemble (multi-model) forecasting techniques for surface

and subsurface hydrologic parameters, especially at longer seasonal time scales.The

objective is to transfer the improved hydrologic prediction techniques to operational

applications at seasonal and interannual time scales.This activity will expand on the

recently developed Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service (AHPS) of NOAA’s

hydrologic forecasting system that includes new model calibration strategies, distributed

modeling approaches, ensemble forecasting, data assimilation techniques, enhanced

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
data analysis procedures, flood forecast inundation maps, hydrologic routing models,

and multi-sensor precipitation estimates. Data from USGS stream flow observations

and gridded multi-sensor precipitation and snow-water equivalent estimates, among

other data, will also be transferred into the AHPS data assimilation system. New

approaches for remotely sensing precipitation, snow, and other inputs will be integrated

into the hydrologic forecast operation.AHPS is slated to be fully implemented

nationwide in 2013. In parallel, CCSP researchers will participate in the further

development of an international project, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction

Experiment.This project will bring the international hydrological community together

with the meteorological community and demonstrate how to produce reliable

hydrologic ensemble forecasts that the emergency management and water resources

sectors can use with confidence to make decisions that have important consequences

for the economy and for public health and safety.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 3, 4,and 5

and Questions 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

A New Strategy for ImprovingWater/Energy Cycle

Components in Earth/Climate System Models.

Integrated Earth/climate system modeling efforts,combining

the water/energy cycle and other components of the climate

system, will be actively pursued in FY 2007 and beyond. In

particular, recent observations, diagnostic studies, and

research analyses have demonstrated the need to incorporate

certain elements in weather forecast and climate (variability)

prediction models operating at various time scales. For

short-term forecasting (e.g., 5 to 10 days), these elements

include the diurnal cycle, coupling between the atmosphere

and the ocean (mixed layer down to the thermocline at a

minimum), and the coupling of the land surface (including vegetation) and subsurface

hydrology (down to the water table at a minimum) to the atmosphere. For climate

variability predictions (e.g., monthly to seasonal and beyond), these elements include

the dynamics of the interaction between the ocean mixed layer and the deeper midocean, the dynamics of interactions between the land and the water table, and dynamic

vegetation changes.These components have a direct impact on the interaction and

exchange fluxes of water, energy, heat, and momentum at the interfaces between the

atmosphere and the land surface/vegetation or the oceans. For longer climate change

time scales, fully coupled models of the atmosphere-land and hydrosphere/biosphereocean-cryosphere are required.The key issue is how to observe and model coupling

processes.To support this activity, improved observing systems are also required.This

effort is considered central to CCSP, and the global water cycle element plans to

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pursue this activity jointly with other CCSP program elements.This integrating activity

will be initiated in FY 2007, but implementation is expected to take the better part

of a decade for improvements in the system of combined observations, modeling,

prediction, and applications.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, 3, 4,and 5

and Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Science Plans for the Extension of the Global Energy andWater

Experiment (GEWEX)-Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP)

through 2010.The initial successes of CEOP have led its Science Steering

Committee and its Advisory and Oversight Committee to endorse plans for a second

phase of CEOP that will extend to the end of 2010.This decision, which CCSP global

water cycle scientists are closely involved with, has also been supported by the broader

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community.TheWCRP Joint Scientific

Committee (JSC) has taken steps to help develop the unique attributes of CEOP’s

observation and data component by providing guidance through theWCRP

Observations and Assimilation Panel. In a similar manner, the JSC plans to ensure that

the CEOP science focus remains closely integrated with and complementary to the

overall objectives of GEWEX and the other core projects ofWCRP. In this manner,

CEOP will continue to evolve as a leading contributor to water and energy cycle

studies in the global climate research community and remain a fully functioning

integrative component of theWCRP. CCSP researchers will contribute to CEOP in

developing the Phase 2 Implementation/Science Plan.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2,and 3

and Questions 5.1, 5.2,and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

NewWatershed Climate Assessment Decision-Support Capabilities.

Climate change presents a range of risks and opportunities to water managers.To

minimize risk and take advantage of opportunities, tools are necessary to promote

adaptive and forward-looking environmental management by decisionmakers at all

levels. Several projects have been initiated in the area of decision support.A new

climate assessment capability, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and

Non-point Sources (BASINS) watershed modeling system, is being developed.

BASINS combines data and models from agencies including EPA, USDA, and USGS in

a single system.The new tool will facilitate assessment of the influence of climate

variability and change—together with land-use change and other stressors—on water

quantity and quality.The tool will also provide the capacity to evaluate potential

adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of water systems to changes in climate.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 4 and 5

and Questions 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
NewTools for the Assimilation of Remote-Sensing Data into Distributed

Water Quality and SedimentTransport and Erosion Models.The research

activities of the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in the area of land data

assimilation systems and model analysis are focused on the efficient integration of

ground-based and remote-sensing data into critical resource and conservation practice

assessment models. Existing agency research projects are aimed at the sequential

assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals and vegetation indices from microwave

and visible remote sensors to constrain crop growth and root-zone water balance

models. Future work will expand this emphasis to include the assimilation of remotesensing data into distributed water quality and sediment transport and erosion

models. Particular emphasis will be paid to developing data assimilation and modeling

capabilities to quantify benefits arising from the adoption of conservation practices

within agricultural watersheds.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 4 and 5

and Questions 5.4 and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Tools to Help Develop “Best Management Practices” to Lessen the Impacts

of ClimateVariability and Change. Similar to BASINS,a decision-support capability

is being developed with models from EPA and the ARSWater Erosion Prediction

Project soil erosion model.The new climate assessment capability will enable land

managers to develop best management practices to lessen the impacts of climate

variability and change on sediment loading to streams.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 4 and 5

and Questions 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Integration of Information on the Effects of Changing Precipitation

Patterns into Infrastructure Planning Processes. Communities around the

United States are investing billions of dollars on upgrading combined sewer systems

to comply with new regulations for combined sewer overflows. Previous work has

suggested that climate change could alter the effectiveness of existing long-term

control plans.Work has been initiated with local utility managers to better integrate

information on the effects of changing precipitation patterns into infrastructure

planning processes using decision-support tools such as those models developed by

EPA in collaboration with other agencies.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 4 and 5

and Questions 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Initial Analysis and Calibration/Validation of Observations from the

CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite

Observation (CALIPSO) Research Satellites. Researchers plan to use new

observations from CloudSat and CALIPSO, launched in mid-FY 2006, to measure

the vertical structure of clouds and aerosols and to improve understanding of their

radiative properties.The data will also provide vital information on global and regional

pollution transport and its direct and indirect effects on cloud and precipitation

processes, of which the latter are much more difficult to quantify.The data will

complement existing satellite observations fromTerra,Aqua,Aura, andTropical

Rainfall Measuring Mission

(TRMM) as well as surfacebased observations from

ARM and the Baseline

Surface Radiation

Network,among others.As

possible, and contingent

on FY 2007 funding, these

data will be utilized, in

research mode, in the

interagency integrated

field campaign proposed

as an interagency

expansion of CLASIC.

This activity will address

CCSP Goals 1, 2,and 3

and

Questions 5.1, 5.2,and 5.3

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.
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Combined Management of Groundwater and Surface

Water Resources. Recent experimental research shows that

coupling global GCMs with regional groundwater and surface water

models have predictive capabilities that exceed the capabilities of

the individual component models, especially at time scales that

are important to water resource management.These early

research findings will be tested further with the objectives of

improving the combined water resources prediction system and

transferring these research results into information that supports

the operational decisionmaking infrastructure and decisionsupport systems.This new concept will be integrated into the

implementation strategy of the global water cycle component over

the next decade. Early testing will be attempted during one or more

of the interagency integrated projects currently being planned for

the next several years of the program. Further calibration will

also allow for improved assessments of the impacts of projected

global climate change at regional and local spatial scales.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, 3, 4,and 5

and Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4,and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Research on Extended Drought: Causes, Monitoring, Analysis, Prediction,

and Support for Drought Information Systems. Extended droughts have large

impacts on water resources, agriculture, the energy industry, and natural ecosystems,

among others.The global water cycle element places considerable importance on

research into the causes of extended droughts and their prediction or early warning

through several, if not all, of the activities identified previously.The activities include

the need for better observing and monitoring systems (surface- and space-based),

cloud and precipitation process studies, improved coupled modeling and prediction

systems, and integrated data and information delivery systems. Major scientific issues

also need to be resolved regarding the response of the continental water cycle to

projected global warming, including how soil moisture balance will affect evaporation

in response to greater energy

availability at the land surface; how

warming will influence the

partitioning of water at the land

surface between surface runoff and

groundwater recharge; and how

likely vegetation is to respond to

changes in the timing and rates of

water and energy supplies to the
atmosphere-land surface interface.This new activity is aimed specifically at a better

understanding and prediction of droughts and the processes that cause them, which

cut across many temporal and spatial scales ranging from seasonal to interannual to

decadal, and from regional to continental. Moreover, as a renewed effort in FY 2007

and beyond, plans are being developed to incorporate enhanced information throughflow from research to experimental analysis and prediction systems to applications that

supply the data needed by planning and decisionmaking infrastructures.This activity

will be carried out jointly with other CCSP interagency working groups such as

ClimateVariability and Change, Land-Use and Land-Cover Change, Ecosystems,

Carbon Cycle and particularly Decision Support and Human Contributions and

Responses, thereby contributing to the recently established National Integrated

Drought Information System.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 4,and 5

and Questions 5.4 and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

1) Amenu, G.G., P. Kumar, and X.-Z. Liang, 2005: Interannual variability of deep-layer hydrologic

memory and mechanisms of its influence on surface energy fluxes. Journal of Climate, 18,

5024-5045.

2) Dai,A., K.E.Trenberth, andT. Qian, 2004:A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for

1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of

Hydrometeorology, 5(6), 1117-1130.

3) Dirmeyer, P.A. and K.L. Brubaker, 2006a: Global characterization of the hydrologic cycle from a

quasi-isentropic back-trajectory analysis of atmospheric water vapor. Journal of Hydrometeorology

(accepted).

4) Dirmeyer, P.A. and K.L. Brubaker, 2006b: Evidence for trends in the Northern Hemisphere

water cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026359.

5) Dominguez, F. and P. Kumar, 2005: Dominant modes of moisture flux anomalies over North

America and their relationship to extreme hydrologic events. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6,

194-209.

6) Dominguez, F., P. Kumar, X.-Z. Liang, and M.Ting, 2006: Impact of atmospheric moisture

storage on precipitation recycling. Journal of Climate, 19, 1513-1530.

7) Duffy, C., 2005:The groundwater connection: amplification of seasonal to century scale

oscillations in closed basins. In: Geological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts with

Programs, 37(7), 162. Geological Society of America, Salt Lake City, Paper No. 64-8.

8) Friend,A.D. and N.Y. Kiang, 2005: Land surface model development for the GISS GCM: Effects

of improved canopy physiology on simulated climate. Journal of Climate, 18(15), 2883-2902.

9) Hanson, R.T. and M.D. Dettinger, 2005: Ground water/surface water responses to global

climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin,Ventura, California. Journal of the AmericanWater

Resources Association, 41(3), 517-536.

10) Jackson, R.B., E.G. Jobbagy, R.Avissar, S. Baidya Roy, D.J. Barret, C.W. Cook, K.A. Farley,

D.C. le Maitre, B.A. McCarl, B.C. Murray, 2005:Trading water for carbon with biological carbon

sequestration. Science, 310, 1944-1947.

GLOBALWATER CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
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11) Khairoutdinov, M., D.A. Randall, and C. DeMott, 2005: Simulation of the atmospheric general

circulation using a cloud-resolving model as a super-parameterization of physical processes. Journal

of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 2136-2154.

12) Knyazikhin,Y.,A. Marshak, M. Larsen,W.Wiscombe, J. Martonchik, and R. Myneni, 2005:

Small-scale drop size variability: Impact on estimation of cloud optical properties. Journal of the

Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 2555-2567.

13) Levi, B.G., 2006: Is there a slowing in the Atlantic Ocean’s overturning circulation? Physics Today,

59(4), 26-28.

14) Maidment, D.R. (ed.), 2005: CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System Status Report. Consortium for

the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc.,Washington, DC, USA, 214 pp.Available at

<www.cuahsi.org/docs/HISStatusSept15.pdf>.

15) Marshak,A.,Y. Knyazikhin, M. Larsen, andW.Wiscombe, 2005: Small-scale drop size variability:

Empirical models for drop-size-dependent clustering in clouds. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,

62, 551-558.

16) Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, and A.V.Vecchio, 2005: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and

water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438, 347-350.

17) Mitchell, D.L.,A.J. Baran,W.P.Arnott, and C. Schmitt, 2006:Testing and comparing the

modified diffraction approximation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (in press).

18) Ping Z. and C. S. Bretherton, 2004:A simulation study of shallow moist convection and its

impact on the atmospheric boundary layer. MonthlyWeather Review, 132(10), 2391-2409.

19) Rignot, E. and P. Kanagaratnam, 2006: Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice

Sheet. Science, 311, 986-990.

20) Shun, T. and C. Duffy, 1999: Low-frequency oscillations in precipitation, temperature, and

runoff on a west facing mountain front:A hydrological interpretation. Water Resources Research, 35,

191-201.

21) Velicogna, I. and J.Wahr, 2005: Greenland mass balance from GRACE. Geophysical Research

Letters, 32, L18505, doi:10.1029/2005GRL023955.

22) White,A.B., P. Kumar, and D.Tcheng, 2005:A data mining approach for understanding

topographic control on climate-induced inter-annual vegetation variability over the United States.

Remote Sensing of Environment, 98, 1-20.

23) Xie, S., S. Klein, J.Yio,A. Beljarrs, C. Long, and M. Zhang: 2005.An assessment of ECMWF

analyses and model forecasts over the North Slope of Alaska using observations from the ARM

Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05107,

doi:10.1029/2005JD006509.

GLOBALWATER CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
4 Land-Use and

Land-Cover Change

Land-cover and land-use change affect the global climate system directly through

biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. Biogeochemical processes of land-cover

and land-use change affect global climate by changing the chemical composition of the

atmosphere. Deforestation, for example, is a major source of atmospheric CO2 resulting

from the oxidation and decomposition of tree biomass, because the vegetation that

replaces forests frequently contains less carbon than the forests they replace.

Biogeophysical processes of land-cover and land-use change affect the absorption and

disposition of energy at the Earth’s surface.The albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth’s

surface determines how much of the Sun’s energy is absorbed, hence available at the

surface in the form of heat.Vegetation transpiration and surface hydrology determine

how the energy received at the surface of the Earth is partitioned into latent and

sensible heat fluxes.Vegetation structure determines surface roughness, which in turn

is directly related to momentum and heat transport.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Strategic Research Questions

6.1 What tools or methods are needed to better

characterize historic and current land-use and landcover attributes and dynamics?

6.2 What are the primary drivers of land-use and landcover change?

6.3 What will land-use and land-cover patterns and

characteristics be 5 to 50 years into the future?

6.4 How do climate variability and change affect land use

and land cover, and what are the potential feedbacks of

changes in land use and land cover to climate?

6.5 What are the environmental, social, economic, and

human health consequences of current and potential

land-use and land-cover change over the next 5 to 50

years?

See Chapter 6 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
A global modeling study has shown that the effects of projected changes in land cover

lead to significantly different regional climatic conditions in 2100 as compared with

climatic conditions resulting from atmospheric greenhouse gas forcings alone. For

example, agricultural expansion produced significant additional warming over the

Amazon Basin and a cooling of the upper air column and nearby oceans, as well as

cooling and decreases in the mean daily temperature range over many mid-latitude

areas. In another regional study, a CCSP collaborative research project used numerical

modeling to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the regional

climate of south Florida. Simulations of regional climate using the Regional Atmospheric

Modeling System compared climate patterns under modern and pre-development land

cover reconstructed from paleoecological and historical records. Spatial patterns of

surface sensible and latent heat flux differed significantly under the different land-cover

schemes, and model results indicate that land-cover changes increased summertime

maximum temperatures and decreased warm season convective rainfall by 10 to 12%.

Refer to chapter references 4, 6, and 7 for detail regarding these illustrative findings.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Global Geographically Registered Landsat Data Set.11 Earth’s land surface is

spatially variable at scales of meters to tens of meters, due to local terrain variability

and associated microclimatic influences on vegetation types and associations.

Accordingly, spatial data at the scale of tens of meters are required to accurately map

many areas, because of the low spatial autocorrelation of land-surface features. In

addition, a variety of natural and human land-use changes (e.g., wildfires, deforestation,

wetland conversion, and urbanization) represent alterations of landscapes, which also

occur at spatial scales of tens of meters.These are important perturbations of the

global environment and require similar spatial-scale data for quantification. Information

is currently lacking about where environmental change is occurring, what the changes

are, and what the post-change properties of the altered areas are. Landsat data are

available at these spatial scales and are consequently extremely useful for studying

land-use and land-cover change from space.

A global land data set having high spatial accuracy has been developed using

Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner,Thematic Mapper, and EnhancedThematic Mapper

data from the 1970s, circa 1990, and circa 2000, respectively, to support a variety of

scientific studies and educational purposes.This is the first time a geodetically accurate

global compendium of multi-epoch digital satellite data at the 30- to 80-m spatial

scale spanning 30 years has been produced for use by the international scientific and

educational communities.These data are being distributed from multiple locations and

are currently being used for land-use and land-cover change research (see Figure 21).

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Understanding environmental or land-cover dynamics represents an important

challenge in the study of the global environment, since many land-cover changes take

place at fine scales of resolution, requiring Landsat-type imagery for accurate

measurement. Uses for such data range from biodiversity and habitat mapping

for localized areas to specifying parameters for large-scale numerical models

simulating biogeochemical cycling, hydrologic processes, and ecosystem functioning.

Recent work has stressed the importance of the effects of land-cover change on

climate.

Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System: A North

American Forest Disturbance Record from Landsat.8 Forest-cover conversion,

disturbance regimes, and recovery from conversion

and disturbance have been proposed as primary

mechanisms for transferring carbon between the

land surface and the atmosphere, but the area and

timing of these processes is still poorly quantified.

A pilot project, the Landsat Ecosystem

Disturbance Adaptive Processing System

(LEDAPS) has been initiated to “mine” the

Landsat observational record, which spans more

than 33 years, in order to assess forest disturbance

across all of North America, in support of the

CCSP’s North American Carbon Program.

Figure 22 shows an example of the products from

this project.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Landsat Mosaic over the Southern Portions of Lake Michigan

a) b)

Figure 21: Landsat Mosaic

over the Southern Portions of

Lake Michigan. Landsat mosaic

products over the southern

portions of Lake Michigan and

adjacent areas of the United

States: (a) a full-resolution

28.5-m2 subset for the circa

1990 epoch; and (b) a fullresolution 14.25-m2 subset of

the circa 2000 epoch. These are

examples of the data available

globally from NASA’s Global

Ortho-Rectified Landsat Data

Set. Credit: C.J. Tucker, NASA/

Goddard Space Flight Center.
LandsatThematic Mapper and EnhancedThematic Mapper data have been corrected

for atmospheric obscuration using algorithms and processing approaches derived from

the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the

Terra and Aqua satellites.To date, some 2,200 Landsat images covering North

America have been corrected, and can be downloaded from the LEDAPS web site,

<ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov/ledaps/ledaps_NorthAmerica.html>. Disturbance and

recovery are being mapped using a multi-spectral “Disturbance Index” algorithm. By

late-2006, scientists will be able to download maps of forest change for the interval

1990 to 2000, both at full resolution (30 m) and coarse resolution suitable for carbon

modeling (500 m and 0.05 degree). Later releases will cover the period 1975 to

1990. Funded by NASA, the LEDAPS project includes researchers from NASA, the

U.S. Forest Service, and the University of Maryland.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

LEDAPS Forest Disturbance Mapping

b) c)

a)

1.2

% Disturbed

Figure 22: LEDAPS Forest

Disturbance Mapping. These

products provide examples of

LEDAPS forest disturbance

mapping: (a) 0.05° modeling

grid showing the percent of

each cell area disturbed

(harvested) per year for the

mid-Atlantic from 1990 to 2000;

(b) atmospherically corrected

Landsat surface reflectance

image for the Richmond,

Virginia, region; and (c) highresolution map of forest

disturbance (red) and regrowth

(green) for the Richmond region,

1990 to 2000. Credit:

J.G. Masek, E.F. Vermote,

N.E. Saleous, R. Wolfe,

F.G. Hall, K. Huemmrich, F. Gao,

J. Kutler, and T.K. Lim, NASA/

Goddard Space Flight Center

and the University of Maryland

(reproduced from Geoscience

and Remote Sensing Letters

with permission from the

Institute of Electrical and

Electronics Engineers ©2006).
Mapping 50Years of Forest Conversion in Madagascar with Satellite Data.

The Ortho-rectified Landsat Global Data were used to quantitatively determine the

tropical moist forest, tropical deciduous forest, and spiny woodland of Madagascar for

the 1970s, 1990, and 2000.The satellite data were analyzed and field verifications

were performed by low-altitude aerial reconnaissance, errors in the analysis were

corrected, and a more accurate classification for the entire island (590,000 km2)

produced.The satellite data were combined with aerial photographs to extend the

work back to the 1950s.

Madagascar’s forest cover decreased substantially over the 50-year period, from

27% of the island in the 1950s to only 16% circa 2000 (see Figure 23).Taking the

fragmentation of forests into consideration, the decrease was even more drastic. From

the 1950s to circa 2000, the area of “high-quality,” or interior forest more than 1 km

from a non-forest edge, decreased from 90,000 km2 to less than 20,000 km2, and the

area in patches of greater than 100 km2 decreased by more than half. Deforestation

rates slowed in the 1990s for the tropical humid and dry forests, but not for the

spiny forest. However, the clearing rates are still of concern among all forest types,

considering the small portion of remaining habitat.

The results emphasize the need for more effective forest conservation in Madagascar.

The researchers suggest goals of halting further primary forest clearance as soon as

possible, and initiating strategically located forest restoration efforts. Given the lag

time of species extinction after habitat destruction, it is probable that many species

are living on borrowed time; forest restoration could partially mitigate this dynamic.

Land Cover, Land-Use Change, Human Dimensions, andWildlife

Conservation in Ngorongoro Conservation Area,Tanzania.1The Ngorongoro

Conservation Area inTanzania has a dense population of African wildlife that coexists

with an expanding human population of Maasai agro-pastoralists and non-Maasai

agriculturalists.The expanding human population has started to encroach upon the

savanna areas that the wildlife and the domestic animals of the Maasai agro-pastoralists

use in common.To complicate matters further, the savanna areas within the

Ngorongoro Conservation Area are climatically variable and strongly influenced by

El Niño and La Niña events: droughts are experienced under El Niño conditions and

excessive rain occurs under La Niña conditions.

Landsat satellite data were used to map the conversion of pastoral areas to

cultivation. By 2000, cultivation had increased to 40 km2 of the 8,300-km2

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 23: Forest Cover of Madagascar, 1950s to ~2000. Forest cover changes from the 1970s to

circa 2000 are shown in the main figure. Forest cover in the 1950s is shown in the lower right inset.

Boxes on the left show forest cover as well as forest near edges and in isolated patches. The bioclimatic

zones used for reporting cover and rates of change are provided in the Forest Zones inset.

Credit: G. Harper, Conservation International.
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Forest Cover of Madagascar: 1950s - ~2000

etail of Cover: 1950s

Detail of Cover: ~2000

Forest Edge Distance: ~2000

Forest Patch Size: ~2000

< 0.06 >3

km

< 5 >1,000

km

Forest Zones

Dry

umid

Spiny

Cover: 1950s

Cover: 1970s - ~2000

Forest (~2000) Clearance (~1990 - ~2000) Forest (pre-2000) and Cloud (~2000)

Non-Forest (1970s) Mangroves Non-Forest (~2000) and Cloud (pre-2000)

Clearance (1970s - ~1990) Water Cloud (~2000 and pre-2000)

50

100

150

200

km
Ngorongoro Conservation Area.While this was a miniscule amount of cultivation as of

2000, the potential for future increases in population and associated cultivation were

modeled to assess impacts on the livelihoods of the population and on the various

wildlife populations.Analysis of demographic and satellite data determined a linear

relationship between population and area of cultivation.These results were extended

into the future using the SAVANNA ecosystem simulation model.The study found that

a doubling of the human population would lead to a doubling of the area of cultivation,

to approximately 80 km2 or 1% of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, which would

not have a negative effect on wildlife populations or on the Maasai agro-pastoralists.

The work was jointly funded by USAID and NSF.

Fire Information for Resource Management System.3 Until recently, protected

area managers who wanted to use satellite-derived information to monitor fires burning

within their area of jurisdiction faced considerable challenges—particularly those

working in remote locations and with limited access to the Internet. Protected area

managers usually want to know the locations of active fires within relatively small areas,

generally their park and its surroundings.They also want this information delivered

with minimal file sizes that can be accessed quickly and easily over the Internet.The

CCSP Fire Information for Resource Management System is being developed to meet

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 24: The Fire

Information for Resource

Management System. This

tool provides web-based

depictions of MODIS fire

products for 1 day, in this case

for Namibia. This same

information is transmitted by

cell phone as a text message to

fire wardens in protected areas

alerting them to the times and

locations of the detected fires.

This information has proven

very useful for detecting and

preventing incursions into

protected areas in Africa and

elsewhere. Credit: D.K. Davies,

University of Maryland

(with permission from GIM

International, <http://www.giminternational.com>).
these requirements in three ways: by providing MODIS active fire information via an

interactive web mapping interface; by providing true-color MODIS images, or subsets

that show fires burning within specific conservation areas; and by delivering fire alerts

through emails and cell phone text messages. Figure 24 provides an example of the

interactive web depiction produced by this system.

Rural Sprawl an Important Land-Use Change.2

Research jointly supported by NASA and USDA provides

a comprehensive view of how the Nation’s changing

socioeconomic characteristics have wrought profound

changes in land development, particularly in rural areas of

the United States. Using archived data from the censuses

of population, housing, and agriculture, the results indicate

that one quarter of the 48 contiguous United States now

consists of so-called exurban development with low-density

housing (6 to 25 homes per km2).This is a five-fold

increase since 1950.The amounts are even higher in the

eastern United States.These increases are largely at the expense of agricultural lands.

Using remotely sensed data for the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states, the study

also found that forest and agricultural land covers have decreased while urban and

mechanically disturbed land areas have increased.The relatively widespread growth

in U.S. population between 1950 and 2000, coupled with decreasing household sizes

and increasing lot sizes, has resulted in major increases in rural sprawl in most regions

of the United States, with the possible exception of the Great Plains region (see

Figure 25).The information-driven economy has fueled rural sprawl by enabling

people to make a living even in relatively isolated areas, including amenity rich areas

like the upper Midwest and ruralWest.

Evidence of Climate Change Due to Historical Practices in Land-Use and

Land-Cover Change.9The consequences of the land-use and land-cover practices of

the ancient Mayans in sustaining a dense population in Central America might be

instructive to our survival in a world with shrinking space and resources.They lived in

present-day Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala, and maintained a population density of

700 to 800 people per km2. Recently published research indicates that by AD 800, the

Mayans had cut down or deforested all the tropical forests in the surrounding area.

They used the wood for buildings, cooking, and manufacturing lime to pave great

plazas and roads.The massive deforestation altered the pattern of rainfall, producing

or exacerbating periods of drought. Mayan civilization was already in drastic decline

when the Spaniards arrived in the 16th century.The present-day tropical forest in this

area, once believed to be primeval, is actually only about 600 years old.This is one

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
108

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 25: Land-Use Changes

at the County Level from1950 to 2000.

These products were generated using censuses

of population, housing, and agriculture:

(top) change in population density;

(middle) change in land area settled at “exurban

densities” (i.e., 1 house per 1 to 40 acres); and

(bottom) change in percentage of cropland.

Credit: D.G. Brown, University of Michigan

(reproduced from Ecological Applications

with permission from

the Ecological Society of America).

Land-Use Changes at the County Level from 1950 to 2000

< -5.0 -4.9 - -0.1 0.0 - 6.0 6.1 - 21.0 21.1 - 50.0 >50.0

Change in Density (people km-1

< 0.0 0.0 - 20.0 20.1 - 40.0 40.1 - 60.0 >60.0

Change in Percent Exurban

< -15.0 -15.0 - -4.1 -4.0 - 0.0 0.1 - 4.0 4.1 - 15.0 Ecoregion

Boundaries Change in Percent Cropland

>15.0 255

510

1,020

1,530

2,040

km
example of historical land-use and land-cover changes that have affected many previous

cultures and contributed to their collapse.

Satellite and aircraft remote-sensing techniques were used in this study to find

abandoned Mayan cities (see Figure 26), water storage areas, and agricultural fields to

document the extent of Mayan occupation of their Central American landscape.The

same satellite remote-sensing techniques that are widely used to study present day

land-use and land-cover change also play a key role in understanding historical landuse and land-cover change, such as that of the Mayan culture.

Urbanization, Land-Use and Land-Cover Change, and the Carbon Cycle:

Consequences for Net Primary Productivity in the United States.5 Using a

combination of daytime and nighttime satellite data and a biophysical model, estimates

of the impact of urbanization on net primary production have been made. Nighttime

images from the Defense Meteorological Satellite’s (DMSP) Operational Linescan system

were used to create a thematic map portraying the extent and spatial distribution of

urbanized, semi-urbanized, and non-urbanized areas in the lower 48 states (see

Figure 27, top panel).The DMSP-based urban categories were geo-registered to a

12-layer map of monthly maximum normalized difference vegetation index values

derived from the AdvancedVery High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor and a

digital land cover map. Monthly net primary production values were calculated over

the course of a year for all land-cover types and summed to provide a map of total

annual net primary production for the United States at 1-km spatial resolution (see

Figure 27, lower panel).The net primary production is the product of the Carnegie

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Landsat Thematic Mapper (30m) vs. Ikonos (1m)

Figure 26: Landsat Thematic

Mapper (30m) vs. Ikonos (1m).

A side-by-side comparison of

Landsat Thematic Mapper 30m

(left) and Ikonos 1m (right) falsecolor imagery shows the

ancient ruins of Tikal—a Mayan

city deep in the Guatemalan

rainforest that was lost for

almost 1,000 years. The Ikonos

imagery resolution of

approximately 1 meter can

detect individual pyramids,

pathways, and small structures.

Credit: T.L. Sever, NASA/

Marshall Space Flight Center.
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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Urbanization and Net Primary Productivity

DMSP Land Cover Urban Peri-Urban Non-Urban

0 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 600 600 - 800 800 - 1,000 1,000 - 1,200

Net Primary Productivity (g m-2

Figure 27: Urbanization and

Net Primary Productivity.

The top product provides an

urbanization map generated

from Defense Meteorological

Satellite (DMSP) Operational

Linescan System data collected

from October 1994 to March

1995, showing urban, periurban, and non-urban areas.

The lower product simulates

total annual net primary

production for the United States

at 1-km spatial resolution.

Credit: M.L. Imhoff, NASA/

Goddard Space Flight Center

(reproduced from Remote

Sensing of Environment with

permission from Elsevier Inc.).
Stanford Ames Approach (CASA) productivity model driven by 1992-1993 AVHRR

data and current climate, and can be considered a “post-urban” representation of the

net primary productivity of the land surface.

Most of the urbanization in the United States has taken place on the lands with

higher rates of net primary production.The estimated overall reduction of net primary

production due to urban land transformation in the United States relative to total

pre-urban production is 1.6% per year.The reduction of net primary production from

agricultural lands is equivalent to food products capable of satisfying the caloric needs

of 16.5 million people or about 6% of the U.S. population.

HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2007 PLANS

Creation of a 2005-2007 Landsat Data Set.10 Since 1972, Landsat satellites have

collected data that have been invaluable for the quantitative study of land cover, land

use, and land-cover change.The ground resolution of the Landsat satellites is ideal for

studying a wide range of surface phenomena. In addition, a variety of natural and

human land-use changes (e.g., wildfires, deforestation, agricultural activity, glacier

expansion/contraction, and urbanization) represent alterations that occur at spatial

scales of tens of meters.Therefore, Landsat data are invaluable for studying the land

surface and how it affects and is affected by climate. Landsat data from 1972 to 2003

have provided the global coverage required to study land-use and land-cover change.

However, a mechanical failure of the Landsat 7 EnhancedThematic Mapper instrument

on 31 May 2003 has degraded subsequent Landsat 7 data, and there are no other

globally available Landsat-type data at these spatial scales.This problem will not be

completely solved until at least 2011, when a Landsat-like instrument will be

launched.This data gap from 2003 to at least 2011 makes it difficult to achieve several

key CCSP goals directly related to understanding the direct impact of land-use and

land-cover change on climate. U.S. government agencies affected by this include

NASA, USGS, USDA, EPA, DOD, HHS, the Federal Emergency Management Agency

(FEMA), and NOAA.

CCSP proposes to address this by redirecting existing agency resources in order

to acquire a global collection of 2005 to 2007 data from Landsat 5 holdings of

International Cooperator ground receiving stations and the U.S.archive; Landsat 7 image

pairs from the U.S. archive (wherein the 25% of missing pixels in one scene are filled

in from one or more subsequent scenes of the same site); the Advanced Spaceborne

Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER); Earth Observing-1’s

Advanced Land Imager (EO-1’s ALI); and satellites now operated by foreign countries.

This CCSP priority item will also be extremely important for scientific studies of the

cryosphere, ecosystems, the carbon cycle, and the International PolarYear; thus, it will

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
112

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

address multiple CCSP requirements and contribute to improved decision support.

NASA and USGS, the two major users of Landsat data, will organize the project, with

advice from and participation by other interested Federal agencies.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1 and 2 and Question 6.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

National Land Cover Data Set 2001.The National Land Cover Database (NLCD)

has become the flagship land-cover data product, providing periodic maps showing the

patterns and extents of major U.S. land-cover types. Development of NLCD has been

coordinated by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, which is made

up of a number of government agencies including USGS (founder and de facto leader);

EPA; NOAA; the U.S. Forest Service; NASA; the National Park Service; the Natural

Resources Conservation Service; the Bureau of Land Management; the U.S. Fish and

Wildlife Service; and the Office of Surface Mining.Two land-cover data sets have been

undertaken.The first NLCD map, NLCD 1992, was produced through the classification

of Landsat satellite imagery acquired around 1992, covers the conterminous United

States, and was completed in 2001.The second map, NLCD 2001, uses Landsat images

acquired around 2001 and will be completed in 2006. NLCD 2001 is also expanding

the geographic coverage of the 1992 data set to include Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto

Rico; this expansion will be completed by 2008.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1 and 2 and Question 6.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Assessment of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Numerical Models: A

Request for a National Academy of Sciences Study. Land-use and land-cover

change are important processes that influence, and are influenced by, the Earth’s

climate, carbon, water, ecological, and socioeconomic systems.A variety of modeling

approaches have been used to understand land-use and land-cover change and to encode

that understanding for the purpose of projection and prediction.These approaches

include Markov, econometric, micro-simulation, dynamic spatial simulation, cellular

automata, agent-based, and a variety of statistical/empirical numerical models.

Attempts to couple land-use change models with models of biogeochemical, water,

and ecological processes face a number of challenges.The spatial and temporal scales

of land-use change models need to be compatible with both the driving processes of

land-use change and models of environmental systems.The land-use and land-cover

change models must also share specific semantic, ontological,and technical specifications

in order to allow inter-model communication and coupling.Thus, although there has

been much research that contributes to our understanding of the dynamics of land-use

and land-cover change from an observational or empirical basis, a suite of models of

land-use and land-cover changes at spatial scales from local to global, and temporal

scales from short (<5 years) to long (>50 years), must be developed.These models
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

must be compatible with environmental models relevant for Federal, State, and local

management and policy development.

Land-use change has direct and indirect impacts on the health and sustainability of

society and ecosystems.A synthetic understanding of land-use change modeling

approaches is needed so that these reciprocal relations can be studied, in the case of

explanatory models, and projected using computer-based tools that encode the best

scientific understanding and complement the diverse applications used by agency

programs. Importantly, the study will provide guidance to a diverse set of scienceand application-based model users on the strengths and weakness of the various

approaches and the appropriate contexts in which they can be applied. Such guidance

is not currently widely available.This study will be conducted by the National

Academy of Sciences.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1 and 2 and Question 6.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

1) Boone, R.B., K.A. Galvin, P.K.Thornton, D.M. Swift, and M.B. Coughenour, 2006: Cultivation

and conservation in Ngorongoro Conservation Area,Tanzania. Human Ecology (in press).

2) Brown, D.G., K.M. Johnson,T.R. Loveland, and D.M.Theobald, 2005: Rural land use change in

the conterminous U.S., 1950-2000. Ecological Applications, 15(6), 1851-1863.

3) Davies, D., S. Kumar, and J. Descloitres, 2004: Global fire monitoring using MODIS near-realtime satellite data. GIM International, 18(4), 41-43.

4) Feddema, J.J., K.W. Oleson, G.B. Bonan, L.O. Mearns, L.E. Buja, G.A. Meehl,W.M.Washington,

2005:The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674-1678.

5) Imhoff, M.L., L. Bounoua, R. DeFries,W.T. Lawrence, D. Stutzer, C.J.Tucker, andT. Ricketts,

2004:The consequences of urban land transformation on net primary productivity in the United

States. Remote Sensing of Environment, 89, 434-443.

6) Marshall, C.H., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert,and D.A.Willard, 2004:The impact of anthropogenic

land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Monthly

Weather Review, 132, 28-52.

7) Marshall, C.H., R.A. Pielke Sr., and L.T. Steyaert, 2004: Has the conversion of natural wetlands

to agricultural land increased the incidence and severity of damaging freezes in South Florida?

MonthlyWeather Review, 132, 2243-2258.

8) Masek, J.G., E.F.Vermote, N.E. Saleous, R.Wolfe, F.G. Hall, K. Huemmrich, F. Gao, J. Kutler,

andT.K. Lim, 2006:A Landsat surface reflectance data set for North America, 1990-2000.

Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 3, 68-72.

9) Saturno,W.A.,T.L. Sever, D.E. Irwin,and B.F. Howell, 2006: Regional scale landscape archaeology:

21st century remote sensing technology and the ancient Maya. In: Manual of Remote Sensing, Remote

Sensing and Human Settlements, 3rd edition,Volume 5 [Ridd, M. and J. Hipple (eds.)]. JohnWiley &

Sons, Hoboken, NJ (in press).

10) Townshend, J.R.G. and C.O. Justice, 1988: Selecting the spatial resolution of satellite sensors

for global monitoring of land transformations. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 9, 187-236.

11) Tucker, C.J., D.M. Grant, and J.D. Dykstra, 2004: NASA’s Global Orthorectified Landsat Data

Set. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 70, 313-322.

LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
5 Global Carbon

Cycle

Over the past two centuries, fossil-fuel emissions, land-use changes, and other human

activities have contributed to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)

concentrations that are unprecedented over the past 650,000 years. Future atmospheric

concentrations of these gases will depend on fossil-fuel emissions; uptake, storage, and

114

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Strategic Research Questions

7.1 What are the magnitudes and distributions of North

American carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to

centennial time scales, and what are the processes

controlling their dynamics?

7.2 What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean

carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial

time scales, and what are the processes controlling

their dynamics?

7.3 What are the effects on carbon sources and sinks of

past, present, and future land-use change and resource

management practices at local, regional, and global

scales?

7.4 How do global terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric

carbon sources and sinks change on seasonal to

centennial time scales, and how can this knowledge be

integrated to quantify and explain annual global carbon

budgets?

7.5 What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of

carbon dioxide, methane, and other carbon-containing

greenhouse gases, and how will terrestrial and marine carbon sources and

sinks change in the future?

7.6 How will the Earth system,and its different components, respond to various

options for managing carbon in the environment, and what scientific

information is needed for evaluating these options?

See Chapter 7 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
release of carbon by

Earth’s ecosystems;

biogeochemical gradients

between major carbon

reservoirs; and active

management activities.

Options available to

societies for stabilizing or

mitigating greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere

through management of

carbon in the environment

include reduction of carbon emissions at the source and/or sequestration of carbon

through biospheric or geospheric storage and engineered approaches.

In FY 2007, the U.S. Global Carbon Cycle Science Program will continue to address

the magnitude and variability of the carbon reservoirs of the North American continent

and adjacent ocean basins, and transfers of carbon between the Earth’s ecosystems, by

characterizing and quantifying the biological, chemical, and physical processes that

determine carbon cycling dynamics. Integrating observations, measurements, and

models of the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components of the carbon cycle is

the essential core research effort needed to quantify multi-scale carbon budgets,

develop successful carbon management strategies, and reduce the uncertainties in

carbon cycle dynamics.Through research efforts such as the North American Carbon

Program (NACP) and the Ocean Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC) Program, the

U.S. Global Carbon Cycle Science Program will continue to provide critical science

information on the fate of

carbon in the environment

and how cycling of carbon

may change or be managed

in the future. By integrating

models, observations,

measurements, and

experimental results at

multiple spatial and

temporal scales, we will

be better able to quantify

carbon budgets, develop

successful carbon

management strategies,

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

The U.S. Global Carbon Cycle Science Program contributes

to all CCSP Goals, focusing particularly on Goal 2:

Improved quantification of the forces bringing about changes in

the Earth’s climate and related systems. It directly addresses

the global carbon cycle research elements and questions

(CCSP Strategic Plan, Chapter 7) and is synergistic with the

ecosystems, global water cycle, climate variability and change,

atmospheric composition, land-use and land-cover change,

human contributions and responses, and observations research

elements.

U.S. GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

SCIENCE PROGRAM

Designed to address strategic research question 7.1, NACP

will quantify the magnitudes and distributions of terrestrial,

freshwater, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks

for North America and adjacent oceans; understand the

processes controlling source and sink dynamics; and produce

consistent analyses of North America’s carbon budget that

explain regional and continental contributions and year-toyear variability. NACP is committed to reducing uncertainties

related to the buildup of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere and

the amount of carbon, including the fraction of fossil-fuel

carbon, being taken up by North America’s ecosystems and

adjacent oceans.

THE NORTH AMERICAN

CARBON PROGRAM
and reduce the uncertainties

about the carbon cycle and

changes in atmospheric

concentrations of CO2 and

CH4.

Activities planned for

FY 2007 will focus on

integrating observational

capabilities, completing

monitoring networks that

measure carbon fluxes and changes in stocks, conducting manipulative experiments in

North America and adjacent oceans, and modeling the carbon cycle for diagnostic and

predictive analyses.This integrative approach will include quantification of landscapescale carbon dynamics, intensive terrestrial measurement campaigns and experimental

studies, atmospheric monitoring networks, global ocean carbon survey and inventory,

coastal ocean and atmospheric carbon exchange measurements, and model comparisons.

Successful completion of this work will yield, and be measured by, integrated and

accessible observational databases; peer-reviewed publications on quantification of

carbon budget components and multi-scale carbon cycle processes; more accurate

estimates of changes occurring or likely to occur in carbon cycle-related systems;

reduced uncertainty in U.S. carbon source and sink estimates; and a stronger scientific

basis for developing technical and policy options for managing carbon.

The agencies responsible for CCSP carbon

cycle research (DOE, NASA, NIST,

NOAA, NSF, USDA, and USGS) have

organized a coordinated, interagency,

multidisciplinary research strategy to

bring together the infrastructure,

resources, and expertise essential for

providing this information, reducing

uncertainties, and producing integrated

carbon budget analyses.A developing

dialog with stakeholders, including

resource managers, policymakers, and

other decisionmakers, has been established

and will be maintained to ensure that the

information provided is effective.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Designed to address strategic research question 7.2, OCCC

will focus on oceanic monitoring and research aimed at

determining how much atmospheric CO2 is being taken up by

the ocean at present and how climate change will affect the

future behavior of the oceanic carbon sink. NACP and OCCC

are synergistic, converging in addressing carbon dynamics in

the coastal oceans adjacent to North America and at its landsea margins, where changes in the terrestrial system greatly

influence carbon processes in the coastal ocean.

THE OCEAN CARBON AND

CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM
HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The following are selected highlights from the participating CCSP agencies that

support a multitude of land, ocean, atmosphere, and remote-sensing projects on the

carbon cycle.These science highlights describe progress contributing to the goals of

the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Synthesis,Analysis, and Modeling

Cumulative Carbon Dioxide Emissions.8 Global emissions from fossil-fuel

consumption and cement manufacture reached an all-time high of approximately

7 billion metric tons of carbon in 2002. Since 1751, over 297 billion metric tons of

carbon have been released to the atmosphere from human use of fossil fuels and cement

production, with half these emissions occurring since 1978. Globally, consumption of

crude oil and coal account for almost 77% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. Combustion

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Cumulative Global CO Emissions

from Fossil-Fuel Consumption and Cement Production

1807

Year

1779 2003

150

100

50

0

Emissions (GtC)

200

250

300

350

1751 1835 1863 1891 1919 1947 1975

Figure 28: Cumulative Global

CO2 Emissions from FossilFuel Consumption and

Cement Production. This chart

provides cumulative global

fossil-fuel CO2 emissions from

1751 to 2003. Credit: T.A. Boden,

DOE/Oak Ridge National

Laboratory.
of gas fuels (e.g., natural gas) accounted for 19.3% (1.4 billion metric tons of carbon)

of the 2002 total, which reflects a gradually increasing global utilization of natural

gas. Releases during cement production have doubled since the mid-1970s and now

contribute about 0.25 billion metric tons of carbon per year globally.Twenty nations

generate roughly 80% of global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (see Figure 28).

Modeling the Carbon Cycle in a Changing Climate.5 Simulations were

conducted over the period 1820-2100 using the National Center for Atmospheric

Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model fully coupled to a land carbon

cycle model and an ocean carbon cycle model with marine biology and carbonate

chemistry (NCAR carbon-CSM1.4).The simulations show decreases in both terrestrial

and oceanic uptake of fossil-fuel CO2 as rates of fossil-fuel emissions rise and greenhouse

gas increases affect global climate. Such changes in carbon sinks in turn affect climate

through their influences on atmospheric CO2 and its radiative forcing and thus represent

an important feedback within the coupled carbon cycle and climate systems.Warming

affects air-sea exchange, oceanic circulation,and ocean biology. Compared to simulations

with constant CO2 radiative forcing, in 2100 the fully coupled model forced by

“business-as-usual” fossil-fuel emissions has 1.2 K higher globally averaged sea surface

temperature, 17% slower North Atlantic overturning, and 5% lower global efflux of

CO2.These effects lead to approximately 20 Gt (1 Gt = 109 metric tons) less total

carbon in the oceans in the fully coupled simulations. On land, the fully coupled

simulation has less net carbon uptake in the tropics and greater uptake at high latitudes

than with constant CO2 radiative forcing.These regional differences approximately

offset each other such that there is only about 20 Gt difference between total terrestrial

carbon sinks in the two simulation experiments. Overall, climate-carbon feedbacks

within the NCAR carbon-CSM1.4 model are similar to those in other models (e.g.,

the Hadley Centre model), albeit with weaker sensitivity. In the NCAR model, the

climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is lower than for other models.As

a result, warming and drying are not as severe and have less impact on photosynthesis

and plant mortality in the tropics. Finally, turnover times of terrestrial carbon pools

affect the longevity and magnitude of land sinks, and the more rapid turnover of

terrestrial carbon in NCAR carbon-CSM1.4, validated by the simulation of the

contemporary atmospheric CO2 cycle, leads to a weaker sink on land with less

sensitivity to climate (see Figure 29).

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
Influence of Land-Cover Change on the Carbon Cycle.24 Land-surface

processes influence the atmospheric carbon budget, with implications for the dynamics

of Earth’s climate system, ecosystem sustainability, and human well-being. Land-use

changes such as forest cutting and regrowth, urbanization, and the development,

abandonment, and management of agricultural land can all affect how much carbon is

stored in plants and the soil. Merged data sets have been used to analyze and quantify

the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change for more than 3,000 study

areas across the Nation.The land-use changes are used as inputs to models of the

carbon cycle, resulting in maps of areas that remove CO2 from or release CO2 to the

atmosphere.The results show that forest regions of the southeastern United States

have been removing CO2 from the atmosphere, but at a decreasing rate. In the

northwestern Great Plains between 1972 and 2001, the modeling indicated that soil

carbon stocks increased by nearly 4 metric tons per hectare.The carbon dynamics of

other regions are being investigated as the land-cover change data become available.

When complete, the influence of land-cover change on carbon dynamics from the

1970s to the present will be mapped for the conterminous United States.The

research integrates many data sources to understand how land management affects

atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and thus contributes to climate

change (see Figure 30).

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

The Impact of Carbon-Climate Feedback on Carbon Storage

Land Carbon Inventory gC m

180 90W 90E 180

10 0

5 0

2 501 0

50150

150

50

1 02 505 0

90S

0N

5S

45N

DIC Column Inventory gC m

0E 90W 0 80

1 0

50350250150

10

50

0

50

10150

90S

0N

5S

45N

20

20

Figure 29: The Impact of Carbon-Climate Feedback on Carbon Storage. These products illustrate the impact of carbon-climate

feedback on carbon storage in oceanic (left panel) and terrestrial (right panel) systems. Units are grams carbon m-2; DIC = dissolved

inorganic carbon. Credit: I.Y. Fung, University of California; S. C. Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; K. Lindsay, National Center

for Atmospheric Research; and J. John, University of California (reproduced from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences with

permission from the National Academy of Sciences).
Global Modeling Estimates of Ocean Carbon Production.2 Researchers

compared 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite

measurements of ocean color and seven models that use general circulation models

coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models.The model results varied the

most for the Southern Ocean, sea surface temperature under 10°C, and chlorophyll

concentration exceeding 1 mg m-3. Based on the conditions under which the model

results varied the most, researchers concluded that current models based on ocean

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

SOC Stocks, NPP, and SOC Change in the Northwestern Great Plains

SOC (MgC ha

1972

High: 81

Low: 25

SOC (MgC ha

2001

High: 81

Low: 25

NPP

(MgC ha yr

Mean (72-01)

High: 3.4

Low: 2.0

SOC Change

(MgC ha

1972-2001

High: 9.4

Low: -10.7

a) b)

c) d)

110

55

110

miles

ãN

Figure 30: SOC Stocks, NPP, and SOC Change in the Northwestern Great Plains. These products provide spatial distribution

patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, net primary production (NPP), and SOC change in the northwestern Great Plains (portions of

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming) between 1972 and 2001: (a,b) the spatial distributions of total SOC stocks

in 1972 and 2001, respectively; (c) the annual average NPP between 1972 and 2001; and (d) the change in SOC stocks from 1972 to 2001,

with positive values indicating an increase in SOC stocks over this period. Credit: Z. Tan, South Dakota Center for Biocomplexity Studies;

S. Liu, SAIC; C.A. Johnston, South Dakota Center for Biocomplexity Studies; T.R. Loveland, U.S. Geological Survey; L.L. Tieszen, U.S.

Geological Survey; J. Liu, U.S. Geological Survey; and R. Kurtz, U.S. Geological Survey (reproduced from Global Biogeochemical Cycles

with permission from the American Geophysical Union).
color are challenged by high nutrient-low chlorophyll conditions and extreme

temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations.Although current models are very

useful, further progress in primary production modeling requires improvements in

understanding the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and in parameterizing the

maximum photosynthetic rate.

Carbon Exchange betweenTerrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere

Isolating the Effect ofVegetation on Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange.15,23

The Ameriflux network, established in 1996, provides continuous observations of

ecosystem level exchanges of CO2, water vapor, energy, and momentum spanning

diurnal, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. Researchers isolated the

effect of vegetation on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 by observing carbon fluxes in

adjacent AmeriFlux sites within each of three vegetation types representing the main

successional stages in the uplands of the southeast United States. Contrary to

expectations, researchers found that the mean annual net ecosystem exchange in the

mature forest was not lower than that of the fast-growing plantation.Year-to-year

variation in water availability showed that the pine plantation was better equipped than

the broadleaf forest to profit from peak wet periods but was also more susceptible to

drought. Preliminary scaling of the three-site data to a 100-km2 area demonstrates the

effect of water availability on the average net ecosystem exchange. Net ecosystem

exchange of the plantation stands increased 33% in a wet year and decreased by 21%

in a dry year.

Carbon Losses from High-Elevation Mountain Forests.10,11,20 Scientists used

a model-data synthesis approach to extract process-level information from multiple

years of eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 at an

AmeriFlux subalpine forest ecosystem.They found that photosynthesis, and possibly

leaf respiration, are down-regulated when the soil is frozen, and the metabolic

processes of soil microbes vary

in the summer and winter

because of the existence of

distinct microbial communities.

Soil respiration was observed

to be exceptionally sensitive to

small changes in beneath-snow

soil temperature, meaning that

small changes in snow amount

can cause large changes in the

amount of CO2 lost from

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
mountain forest ecosystems. Using DNA sequence analyses and studies of microbial

growth kinetics, the researchers showed that the high sensitivity of soil CO2 loss to

changes in snow depth, and concomitant change in soil temperature, is caused by a

uniquely adapted soil microbial community that exhibits exponential growth and high

rates of substrate utilization at the cold temperatures that exist beneath the snow

(see Figure 31).

Soil Respiration in Ecosystem Carbon Balance.19 Researchers reviewed the

role of soil respiration in determining ecosystem carbon balance, and the conceptual

basis for measuring and modeling soil respiration, a significant component of ecosystem

respiration. Because autotrophic and heterotrophic activity belowground is controlled

by substrate availability, soil respiration is strongly linked to plant metabolism,

photosynthesis, and litter fall.This link dominates both base rates and short-term

fluctuations in soil respiration and suggests many roles for soil respiration as an

indicator of ecosystem metabolism. However, the strong links between above- and

below-ground processes complicate the use of soil respiration to understand changes

in ecosystem carbon storage. Root and associated mycorrhizal respiration account for

roughly half of soil respiration, with much of the remainder derived from decomposition

of recently produced root and leaf litter. Changes in the carbon stored in the soil

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 31: The Niwot Ridge

Ameriflux Site, Colorado.

Studies of soil carbon fluxes

beneath the snowpack of the

Niwot Ridge Ameriflux site have

shown that recent declines in

the snowpack of the western

United States are likely to affect

the flux of CO2 from the soil to

the atmosphere. This research

illustrates the tight coupling

between the water and carbon

biogeochemical cycles in

mountain ecosystems. Credit:

S. Burns, National Center for

Atmospheric Research.
generally contribute little to soil respiration, but these changes, together with shifts in

plant carbon allocation, determine ecosystem carbon storage belowground and its

exchange with the atmosphere.

Elevated CO2 Concentration IncreasesTerrestrial Photosynthesis and

Productivity.6,14 Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) research technology creates a

platform for multidisciplinary, ecosystem-scale research on the effects of elevated

atmospheric CO2 concentrations over extended periods. FACE experiments are

providing unique information on the productivity and carbon processes of ecosystems,

and the results are being used in prognostic models to evaluate ecosystem responses

to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Most field experiments

are carried out at approximately 550 parts per million (ppm) of CO2, which is roughly

170 ppm above the ambient concentration (380 ppm).An analysis on the net primary

productivity (above- and below-ground) response in four FACE experiments in forest

stands found that the response to CO2 is highly conserved across a broad range of

productivity, with a median increase in production of 23 ± 2%. Belowground, metaanalysis of 35 experimental observations from diverse temperate ecosystems indicated

that CO2 enrichment increased soil carbon by an average of 5.6% over 2 to 9 years.

Researchers also directly measured similar increases in soil carbon in two experiments

where the vegetation responded to CO2 enrichment with large increases in the

production of root litter. Over half of the accrued carbon was protected by incorporation

into microaggregates.These findings indicate that the carbon storage capacities of

many soils, including some with large organic matter stocks, may not be saturated at

present and might be capable of serving as carbon sinks if detrital inputs increase as a

result of passive CO2 fertilization or active management efforts to sequester carbon.

The surprising consistency of responses across diverse sites provides a benchmark for

predicting ecosystem response, and research can now focus on unresolved questions

about carbon partitioning and retention, and spatial variation in the response of net

primary productivity caused by availability of other growth-limiting resources.

Regulation of Carbon Sequestration under Elevated Atmospheric Carbon

Dioxide.3,4,7 Researchers have made substantial progress in past years toward

understanding nitrogen regulation of carbon sequestration. For example, it was found

that spatial variability in soil nutrients, primarily nitrogen, had a dominant impact on

how fast the canopy of pines developed after seedlings were planted.Areas where

nitrogen was limiting had a less-developed pine canopy and slower carbon sequestration

by the pine. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentration increased canopy leaf area and

carbon sequestration, with the increase being proportionally smaller where nitrogen

was limiting.The immobilization of nitrogen in woody biomass depletes soils of

mineralizable nitrogen, leading to progressive nitrogen limitation of net primary

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
productivity at elevated CO2 levels. In a metadata analysis of the literature on nitrogen

limitation of ecosystem carbon sequestration, it was found that at elevated CO2

concentrations, significant increases in averaged carbon and nitrogen contents

occurred in the plant, litter, and soil pools, leading to more net carbon and nitrogen

accumulations in ecosystems.The analysis suggests that complete down-regulation of

CO2 stimulation of plant growth and carbon sequestration is not pervasive across

ecosystems and that net nitrogen accumulation probably supports long-term carbon

sequestration in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Researchers also

noted that belowground microbes showed a shift in activity from the decomposition of

labile carbon substrates to more recalcitrant carbon substrates, indicating a decline in

labile carbon inputs to the soil under elevated CO2 and progressive nitrogen limitation.

Impact of Land Use on Carbon Sources and Sinks

Carbon Sequestration across Forested Ecosystems.17 A cross-site vegetation

and land-use analysis of eight forested sites from Ontario, Canada, to Mississippi

shows that ecosystem carbon sequestration averaged 2.5 metric tons per hectare per

year. Carbon sequestration in soils, on the other hand, averaged 10 to 30% of this

value, with some notable losses.The use of system-wide averages rather than sitespecific data would therefore produce very significant errors. Future predictions and

management scenarios will require that site-specific controls be used to model

changes in landscape carbon dynamics. Calcium and nitrogen availability were major

controls of carbon dynamics, suggesting the possibility of improvements in the

management of forested systems.

Carbon Budget Effects of Selective Logging inTropical Forests.1 Remote

sensing has been used to quantify tropical deforestation and make substantial reductions

in uncertainties concerning the contribution of tropical land-use change to the global

carbon budget. However, uncertainties remained regarding the effects of selective

logging, previously considered undetectable in satellite imagery. Selective logging is the

cutting of a limited number of marketable trees, with logs transported off-site. U.S.-

sponsored investigations within the international Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere

Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) applied new spectral unmixing methods, developed

using the EO-1 Hyperion satellite sensor, to Landsat imagery for the top five timberproducing states of the Brazilian Amazon.The development of a robust library of forest

spectral signatures using Hyperion observations and the use of pattern-recognition

techniques customized for logging patterns in Brazil enabled detailed discrimination of

selective logging in an almost fully automated process.The researchers combined their

logging results with field-based forest-canopy gap-fraction and roundwood-extraction

data to calculate the total wood-extraction rates and carbon losses.Total carbon losses

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
were approximately 8 metric tons per hectare contained in roundwood and 34 to 50

metric tons per hectare associated with fine and coarse debris. Integrated to the

regional scale, this represents a gross loss of carbon from the forest of about 0.1 Gt for

each year of logging.This value increases the estimated gross annual anthropogenic loss

of carbon from Amazonian forests by up to 25% over carbon losses from deforestation

alone (see Figure 32).

125

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Amazon Deforestation via Selective Logging

razilian

Amazon

1999-2000

Logging 2000-2001Logging 2001-2002Logging Federal Conservation Units IndigenousReserves

ãN

00 ,000 2,000

km

Figure 32: Amazon Deforestation via Selective Logging. Remote sensing has measured Amazon deforestation for three decades,

but selective logging has been mostly invisible to satellites. A new large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote-sensing analysis of

selective logging was conducted for the top five timber producing states of the Brazilian Amazon. Logged areas ranged from 12,075 to

19,823 km2 yr-1 (±14%) between 1999 and 2002, equivalent to 60 to120% of previously reported deforested area. In 2000, 2001, and 2002,

roundwood production averaged 49.8, 29.8, and 26.6 million m3, respectively. The total volume harvested equaled 10 to 15 MtC. In addition

to roundwood, residual stumps, branches, foliage, and roots are left to decompose in the forest, subsequently returning to the atmosphere

as CO2 over approximately a decade. Each year 27 to 50 million m3 of wood were extracted, and a gross carbon flux of about 0.1 Gt was

destined for release to the atmosphere as a result of logging. Credit: G.P. Asner, Carnegie Institution of Washington; D.E. Knapp, Carnegie

Institution of Washington; E.N. Broadbent, Carnegie Institution of Washington; P.J.C. Oliveira, Carnegie Institution of Washington; M. Keller,

University of New Hampshire; and J.N. Silva, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária-Amazonia Oriental (reproduced with permission

from Science).
Deforestation Monitoring for Decision

Support in Brazil.12 In a related study, data

products developed by LBA researchers using

observations from the Moderate Resolution

Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) on the

Terra and Aqua satellites are being used in

Brazil to conduct near-real-time monitoring of

deforestation to alert government authorities

and the public to unknown and sometimes

illegal locations of forest clearing. One system,

called DETER, focuses on the legal Amazon;

another called SAID also includes the woodlands and savannas to its south.This

information is being used by regulatory agencies in Brazil for rapid response and by

private conservation organizations interested in the prevention and control of

deforestation.

Effects of Fire Behavior and Burn Severity on Carbon Emissions in Boreal

Forests.9Wildfire is a major disturbance in boreal ecosystems, and changing climate

has great potential to alter fire behavior, fuel consumption, and the resultant emissions

to the atmosphere. Research on seven experimental prescribed fires on dry Scotch

pine (Pinus sylvestris) sites in central Siberia showed a large range in fuel consumption

and carbon emissions (4.8 to 15.4 metric tons of carbon per hectare) in surface fires,

indicating the variability of burning conditions and fire behavior, and a loss of 18 to

23 metric tons of carbon per hectare in crown fires. Currently, fires in these pine

forests are dominated by relatively frequent (30 to 50 years), low-severity surface fires.

Any increase in the annual area burned by high-severity surface fires or crown fires

due to changing climate will affect both short-term carbon storage and fire-related

emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (see Figure 33).

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Variations in Surface Fire Intensity in Boreal Scotch Pine Forests

Figure 33: Variations in

Surface Fire Intensity in

Boreal Scotch Pine Forests.

Variations in surface fire intensity

cause a wide range of fuelconsumption, fire emissions,

and ecosystem fire effects.

Credit: S.G. Conard, U.S.

Department of Agriculture

Forest Service.
Ocean Carbon Processes

Impact of Carbon Dioxide Changes on Biological Processes in Adjacent

Ocean Basins.16 An international team of researchers assessed the impacts of

changes in ocean chemistry driven by atmospheric CO2 on ocean biology, particularly

carbonate-based biology, in the context of a changing climate or increasingly acidic

global ocean. Model simulations indicate that future emissions of CO2 could cause an

increase in ocean acidity by the end of this century.This would affect many biological

organisms that require carbonate to build their hard outer shells, a major biological

carbon sink in the ocean.Thus a chemical shift in the carbonate system to a more

acidic equilibrium would change the growth rate and pattern of the affected organisms,

or dissolve the carbonate component of their shells, which would likely lead to death.

Corals within reef structures are among the carbonate organisms most likely to be

affected. Coral reefs are critical for marine fisheries, providing habitat and nursery

grounds.

Fate of Carbon Particles in the Ocean.18 Sinking particulate matter, such as

diatom shells and zooplankton excretions, is the major process for exporting carbon

from the sea surface to the ocean interior. During its transit toward the sea floor, most

particulate organic carbon (>90%) is returned to inorganic form and redistributed in

the water column.The ability to predict quantitatively and mechanistically the depth

profile of remineralization is critical for predicting the response of the global carbon

cycle to environmental change. Novel techniques are now being used to investigate

the depth profile of mineralization, with the unexpected finding that average sinking

velocity changes little with depth between 200 and 1800 m, despite the decrease in

percent particulate organic carbon. If these observations can be generalized, they

signify that through aggregation and disaggregation processes, particle size and sinking

velocity adjust to changes in particle density, always yielding the same sinking velocity

spectrum.This suggests that remineralization time is directly proportional to depth in

remineralization profiles and enables calculation of absolute rates.

Global Continental Margins are Significant Carbon Sinks.13 Current models

of ocean carbon cycling generally stop at the continental shelf break, with little or no

exchange between the ocean and the continental margins. Using satellite data to

compute annual global net primary production between 1998 and 2001, researchers

derived the global particulate organic carbon flux settling below the permanent

thermocline and to the seafloor using an empirical model of particulate organic carbon

remineralization.Although the margins accounted for 40% of the particulate organic

carbon flux from the thermocline, the shallower depth of the marginal seas means that

a larger fraction is buried in shelf sediments and a smaller fraction is recycled to CO2.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Approximately 67% of the total ocean flux to the sediments occurs over the continental

margins, and at least 0.06 Gt of carbon per year (about 40% of the ocean flux) may

be buried on continental margins.These regions must be accounted for in realistic

models of the global carbon cycle and its linkages to climate change (see Figure 34).

Changes in Dissolved Organic Carbon Export to the Ocean by Arctic

Rivers.22 Climate warming is having a dramatic effect on the vegetation distribution

and carbon cycling of terrestrial subarctic and Arctic ecosystems. Researchers presented

hydrologic evidence that warming is also affecting the export of dissolved organic

carbon and bicarbonate at the large-basin scale. In theYukon River Basin, flow-adjusted

dissolved organic carbon export significantly decreased during the growing season

from 1978-1980 to 2001-2003, indicating a major shift in the transfer of carbon from

terrestrial to aquatic systems. Researchers concluded that decreased dissolved organic

carbon export, relative to total summer and autumn water discharge, results from an

increased flow path from soil to surface waters, longer residence times, and microbial

mineralization of dissolved organic carbon in the soil active layer and groundwater

aquifer. Counter to other predictions, researchers argued that continued warming

could result in decreased dissolved organic carbon export to the Bering Sea and

Arctic Ocean by major subarctic and Arctic rivers due to increased respiration of

organic carbon on land.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Average Annual Carbon Deposition, 1998-2001

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

gC m-2 yr-1

50W 100W

50N

0

50S

50W 0 50E 100E 150E

Figure 34: Average Annual

Carbon Deposition, 1998-2001.

This product estimates average

annual particulate organic carbon

flux (in gC m-2 yr-1) deposited

on the ocean bottom between

1998 and 2001, with continental

margins outlined in white at the

2,000-m depth contour.

Credit: F.E. Muller-Karger,

University of South Florida;

R. Varela, Estación de

Investigaciones Marinas de

Margarita; R. Thunell, University

of South Carolina; R. Luerssen,

University of South Florida;

C. Hu, University of South

Florida; and J.J. Walsh,

University of South Florida

(reproduced from Geophysical

Research Letters with

permission from the American

Geophysical Union).
Characterization of Carbon Matter in

Coastal Ocean Ecosystems.21 Different

algorithms are used with data from satellite-based

sensors to retrieve ocean-based properties. One

critical ocean property for ecological and

biogeochemical research is the carbon-based

biomass of primary producers, or biomass from

phytoplankton chlorophyll a.As shown in Figure 35,

two statistically similar phytoplankton chlorophyll a

algorithms were compared to test how well the

two algorithms retrieved the biologically and biogeochemically invaluable phytoplankton

biomass property. Data from the comparison of the two algorithms in the global

climatology showed that chlorophyll a concentrations differ, with the percentage

differences approaching 100% at high latitudes.There is a strong relationship between

the difference in phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations and colored dissolved

organic material (CDOM) concentrations, indicating that the currently used empirical

algorithm overestimates chlorophyll a in regions of high CDOM.The bias is caused by

the fixed CDOM/chlorophyll a relationship in the algorithm, and thus there is an

overwhelming need for new satellite technology to better discriminate between

chlorophyll a and CDOM fractions.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Characterization of Carbon Matter in Ocean Ecosystems

Æ Chlorophyll a

80 90W 90E 180

90S

90N

-60 -30 0 30 60 90

CDOM

80 90W 90E 180

90S

90N

0.001 0.01 0.1

Figure 35: Characterization of Carbon Matter in Ocean Ecosystems. These data compare two algorithms used to infer the global

climatology. Chlorophyll a concentrations differ, approaching 100% at high latitudes. The right-hand panel shows the global estimate of

colored dissolved organic material (CDOM). Credit: D.A. Siegel, University of California, Santa Barbara; S. Maritorena, University of

California, Santa Barbara; N.B. Nelson, University of California, Santa Barbara; M.J. Behrenfeld, Oregon State University; and C.R. McClain

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (reproduced from Geophysical Research Letters with permission from the American Geophysical Union).
HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2007 PLANS

In FY 2007, integrating observations, measurements, and models of the atmospheric,

terrestrial, and oceanic components of the carbon cycle is the core research needed to

quantify carbon budgets at multiple spatial and temporal scales, develop successful

carbon management strategies, and reduce the uncertainties in quantifying carbon

cycle dynamics.The integrated approach will include quantification of landscape-scale

carbon dynamics, intensive terrestrial measurement campaigns and experimental

studies, atmospheric monitoring networks, global ocean carbon surveys and inventory,

coastal ocean and atmospheric carbon exchange measurements, long-term studies

identifying and quantifying phenomena and processes critical to reducing uncertainties

and improving predictions of future carbon dynamics,coupled carbon-climate modeling,

data assimilation, and model comparisons. In 2007, carbon fluxes will be determined

by “top down” (atmospheric composition and inverse transport model) techniques and,

for the first time, compared and integrated with “bottom up” (land-based experiments,

inventories, and monitoring networks) estimates:

• Improved Modeling for Projections of Carbon and Climate. New investments will be

made in synthesis and modeling studies to support the NACP, the Mid-Continent

NACP Intensive Campaign, the OCCC Program, global carbon dynamics, and

climate change assessment activities.

• Couple Models of the Carbon Cycle and the Climate System. New studies will be

initiated to couple models of the carbon cycle and the climate system and to analyze

these models to identify, quantify, and understand process controls and feedbacks

within the coupled systems.This next step in carbon cycle research responds directly

to the CCSP plan for a 2- to 4-year milestone, product, and payoff of “interactive

global climate-carbon cycle models that explore the links and feedbacks between

the physical and biogeochemical systems.”This research will be conducted in close

coordination with the climate variability and change research element.

• Carbon Data Assimilation. New research will be conducted to develop, test, and

apply carbon data assimilation and data fusion schemes that incorporate in situ and

remotely sensed data and focus on enabling forecasts of changes in atmospheric

CO2 concentrations at short or long time scales with estimates of uncertainty.

Studies to explore assimilation of carbon data from ocean margins into general

circulation models will be initiated.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3,and 7.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
Terrestrial Carbon Observations and Monitoring

Networks.The following research will continue to

address NACP implementation strategies and other carbon

cycle science goals:

• Scaling Carbon Fluxes from Sites to Landscapes to Regions.

Carbon dioxide data from AmeriFlux sites will be

extended across landscapes and regions based on turbulent

transport theories using land-cover information derived

from fine-resolution satellites. Several such studies will

focus on landscapes throughout the United States. Some

studies will extend these analyses to larger scales

combining regional data from the MODIS sensor with measurements from many

other AmeriFlux sites. Results from these new studies will be compared to estimates

of fluxes based on biogeochemical models and, for some sites, concentration

profiles of atmospheric carbon measured using tethered-sonde balloons or aircraft.

The latter comparisons will be used to estimate the uncertainties involved in

scaling.

• Regional Carbon Monitoring.A carbon atmospheric observing system will continue

across the Nation in support of research to reduce uncertainty in U.S.carbon sources

and sinks.The current system now includes 19 aircraft sites, in situ instruments at

three tall towers, and seven surface flask sampling sites.The sampling, analysis, and

data management activities are complemented with a growing modeling capability

to aid in positioning new sites as well as in interpreting the increased flow of data.

The global sampling and analytical network will continue as the cornerstone of

international efforts to maintain a record of, and understand the global changes in,

atmospheric CO2 concentration and distribution over the past 50 years.The network

is a critical component of the Global Climate Observing System.The program will

provide critical data for analysis of regional carbon sources and sinks and useful

decision-support information for carbon management.

• Landscape-Scale Carbon Sources and Sinks inVarious EcosystemTypes.An improved

observation and monitoring system that integrates several existing programs will

continue at several forest sites in the United States. Standardized estimates of carbon

stocks and flows will provide a strong scientific foundation for development and

deployment of carbon sequestration technology to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Enhancing observations at experimental forests has additional benefits such as

facilitating use of these sites for carbon management research and demonstration

projects, and providing the basis for an “early warning” capability to detect the

initial impacts of climate change. On rangelands, the recently developed National

Carbon Map will be used to identify and quantify the effects of fire, grazing, and

other natural disturbances and human activities on the status and trends of carbon

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

stocks and fluxes.The results will delineate better the spatial and temporal

dimensions of current U.S. carbon sources and sinks.

• Continental-Scale Satellite Data Time Series. Continuing investments will be made

to improve and temporally extend the continental-scale Earth Observing System

satellite data products used for spatial extrapolation of carbon stock and flux

estimates. In addition, these data products on primary productivity, land cover,

vegetation, and phytoplankton properties of the Earth’s lands and oceans will be

used to drive carbon and climate models.

• Carbon andWater Processes in the Earth System.The Biocomplexity in the

Environment initiative will continue to define and quantify key mechanisms,

feedbacks, and interactions of the carbon cycle through empirical observations,

theory, and modeling at the level of continents, ocean basins, and air masses. In

early 2007, researchers will begin addressing carbon processes at a variety of spatial

and temporal scales, and address how results can be scaled up for relevance to

regional or global scales. Critical feedbacks, couplings, and interactions between

the carbon and water cycles will also be addressed.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3,and 7.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Terrestrial Field Studies: Processes, Synthesis, and Integration. Long-term

field experiments and major campaigns will continue to identify processes that are

critical to reducing uncertainties in carbon budgets and improving model-based

predictions of future terrestrial carbon dynamics. Several scientific syntheses are

anticipated in FY 2007:

• Mid-Continent NACP Intensive Campaign.An intensive field investigation centered

on the mid-continent region of North America will continue to develop and test

methods for regional and continental estimates of carbon sources and sinks through

2007.When the field studies are completed, investigators will evaluate and compare

two independent approaches for estimating carbon fluxes at the regional scale: the

“top down” approach using atmospheric measurements and inverse models, and the

“bottom up” approach using vegetation and soil carbon inventories, land cover,

meteorological information, and models.This prototype study will integrate existing

data on crop, forest, and soil carbon content with data from the AmeriFlux

network,airborne sensors,and satellites. Biological process information from current

experiments, atmospheric profiling, and statistical databases of the mid-continent

region will play key roles in the analysis. Results will contribute to the design of

more comprehensive research for quantifying and explaining variation of carbon

sources and sinks across North America.

• Analysis of Regional- and Continental-Scale Carbon Budgets. NACP studies will

continue to focus on using remote-sensing observations, state-of-the-art carbon

models, and data assimilation schemes to conduct integrated analysis of regional-
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and continental-scale

carbon budgets.These

studies will bring U.S.

capabilities for Earth

observation, the

remote measurement of

biophysical properties,

and related modeling,

analysis, and data

management to bear on

NACP and related

OCCC objectives.

• Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) Studies.A synthesis of CO2 exchange and

belowground research at FACE sites will continue to create a data archive of

photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, soil carbon and nitrogen pools, surface

soil CO2 efflux, nitrogen cycling, microbial activity, and essential metadata.

Integration of field data will occur through modeling of photosynthesis and soil

nitrogen cycling.This integration will be used to calibrate prognostic models of

ecosystem net primary production under elevated CO2 in nitrogen-limited and

nitrogen-replete systems (i.e., under future scenarios of atmospheric nitrogen

deposition).

• Amazonian Carbon Balance.A synthesis of carbon dynamics in the Amazon region

of South America will be completed, including an assessment of the region’s overall

role as a source or sink of carbon and a quantification of the associated uncertainties.

• Carbon andWater Balances in Managed Ecosystems in China and the United States.

The U.S.-China Carbon Consortium (USCCC) was established in 2003 as a

collaborative effort between American and Chinese institutions studying the role

of managed ecosystems in the global carbon and water cycles.The USCCC is

developing a network of eddy-covariance flux towers to measure directly and

continuously the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and water using standardized

data collection, analysis, and reporting methods, and will synthesize results across

sites. Planned work will focus on site installation, data protocol standardization,

and initial data collection

• Tracking Permafrost Melting and Associated Release of Biologic and Sequestered Carbon.

Ongoing research on carbon dynamics in Arctic and subarctic landscapes will be

enhanced through integration with regional monitoring to assess the sources and

sinks of carbon in rapidly thawing permafrost terrain. Carbon movement, including

vertical flux to the atmosphere, lateral export to surface waters and the ocean, and

descending transport to and re-sequestration in deeper soils, will be assessed in an

integrated manner by using theYukon River Basin and adjacent coastal ocean as a
frame of reference.This assessment will begin in 2007 during the initial year of the

International PolarYear.

• Determining Carbon Sequestration Capacity inWetlands. Methods for greenhouse gas

mitigation through terrestrial carbon sequestration are being developed that will

also meet traditional wildlife habitat and ecosystem objectives in bottomland

hardwood forests of the Lower Mississippi RiverValley and prairie pothole wetlands

in North Dakota.Wetland restoration activities will continue to be monitored to

quantify the influence of land-use change on greenhouse gas emissions, identify

environmental factors controlling carbon emissions and sequestration, and provide

recommendations and decision-support tools for maximizing sequestration in ways

that are consistent with current options for habitat restoration.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5,and 7.6

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Ocean Carbon and Climate Change Research. New studies will be initiated,

and existing studies will be strengthened, to advance the goals of the OCCC

implementation strategy:

• Refine Satellite-Based Global Estimates of Phytoplankton Carbon Biomass.

Phytoplankton biomass, specifically carbon-based estimates within biogeochemical

and ecological models, is dependent on resolving CDOM absorption of the

ultraviolet part of the spectrum.To accomplish this task, new measurement

capabilities for the generally riverine-delivered CDOM will be developed to detect

and quantify CDOM from space over a broad spatial area and within a time frame

that will support models in development. One problem that will be addressed in

the semi-analytical model approach is that atmospheric

correction algorithms do not give good

retrievals of the important ultraviolet

and near-ultraviolet wavebands in

coastal regions.To resolve true

carbon cycling in not only global

but also coastal areas,

researchers need new tools in

orbit to rigorously separate

chlorophyll a from CDOM.

This will require passive

measurements in different

wavelength regions as well as new

approaches to correcting for absorbing

aerosols, perhaps using Light Detection

and Ranging (LiDAR) technology.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
• Satellite Data Analysis. Studies will continue to focus on using ocean color to

characterize carbon dynamics globally and on using a variety of satellite and in situ

data to quantify and understand the spatial variability of air-sea CO2 flux in the

oceans adjacent to North America. Other studies will focus on the development

and analysis of remote-sensing data and products that facilitate understanding of the

input of non-CO2, climate-relevant carbon compounds (e.g., dissolved organic

matter, carbon monoxide, and CH4) to the aquatic environment and their fate

once there.

• Dynamics of Carbon Cycling in the Upper Ocean.The two timeseries stations at Hawaii and Bermuda will continue to monitor

a suite of critical parameters of the carbon cycle while also

supporting a range of carbon-related projects such as nitrogen

fixation by unicellular cyanobacteria and phosphorus cycling that

determines the amount of carbon fixation. Focused process

studies will be completed to better define the role of mesoscale

eddies in enhancing new production and the transport of particles

from the upper ocean to the deep sea.

• Ocean Hydrography and Carbon Measurements.The Repeat Hydrography Program

will continue to re-measure key ocean properties along cross-sections in the South

Atlantic and North Pacific that were last measured in 1989 and 1991, respectively.

The suite of measurements will include conductivity, temperature, depth, oxygen,

salinity, nutrients, partial pressure of CO2, and total carbon.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2,and 7.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Development of New Measurement and Analysis Methods.The following

activities will be underway to develop new measurement standards and data analysis

methodologies for carbon cycle science:

• Carbon Dioxide Exchange Across the Air-Sea Interface. New gas sensors will be

designed specifically for use on autonomous platforms such as floats, gliders,

surface drifters, and autonomous underwater vehicles.The objective is to develop

parameterizations for gas exchange rates at high wind speeds, where the largest

uncertainties remain for computing net global CO2 exchange between the ocean

and the atmosphere. Modeling and data analysis will focus on understanding the

physics of bubble-mediated gas transfer, particularly the processes responsible for

gas influx and efflux, the roles of bubble size, and the relationships between wind,

waves, bubble generation, ocean turbulence, and vertical exchange.

• Satellite Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Development of the new

remote-sensing capabilities of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) to measure

atmospheric CO2 will continue. In 2007, the ground data system for OCO will be

tested and research will be conducted to prepare for scientific data utilization.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Globally sampled measurements of atmospheric column CO2 (i.e., the columnintegrated CO2 dry air mole fraction) will provide a hundred-fold increase in the

available measurements to drive inverse models and should enable regional resolution

of carbon sources and sinks. Launch of the OCO is scheduled for 2008.

• AmeriFlux Data Assimilation System.An integrated framework for using AmeriFlux

measurements and ecosystem models will continue to improve understanding of

terrestrial carbon cycling processes.This framework, called the AmeriFlux Data

Assimilation System, takes advantage of diverse,continuousAmeriFlux measurements

of CO2 and energy exchanges, and combines them with a detailed process-based

ecosystem model. It will yield information on ecosystem states and carbon sinks

in real-time and will be an effective tool for scientists to investigate fundamental

ecological processes that are difficult to observe directly.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.4,and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

1) Asner, G.P., D.E. Knapp, E.N. Broadbent, P.J.C. Oliveira, M. Keller, and J.N. Silva, 2005:

Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon. Science, 310, 480-481.

2) Carr, M.-E., M. Friedrichs, M. Schmeltz, M.N.Aita, D.Antoine, K.R.Arrigo, I.Asanuma, O.

Aumont, R. Barber, M. Behrenfeld, R. Bidigare, E. Buitenhuis, J. Campbell,A. Ciotti, H.

Dierssen, M. Dowell, J. Dunne,W. Esaias, B. Gentili, S. Groom, N. Hoepffner, J. Ishizaka,T.

Kameda, C. LeQuere, S. Lohrenz, J. Marra, F. Melin, K. Moore,A. Morel,T. Reddy, J. Ryan, M.

Scardi,T. Smyth, K.Turpie, G.Tilstone, K.Waters, andY.Yamanaka, 2006:A comparison of global

estimates of primary production from ocean color. Deep-Sea Research II, 55, 741-770.

3) Finzi,A.C., R.L. Sinsabaugh,T.M. Long, and M.P. Osgood, 2005: Microbial community responses

to atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment in a warm-temperate forest. Ecosystems, 8, 1-14.

4) Finzi,A.C., D.J.P. Moore, E.H. DeLucia, J. Lichter, K.S. Hofmockel, R.B. Jackson, H.-S. Kim,

R. Matamala, H.R. McCarthy, R. Oren, J.F. Pippen, andW.H. Schlesinger, 2006: Progressive

nitrogen limitation of ecosystem processes under elevated CO2 in a warm-temperate forest.

Ecology, 87, 15-25.

5) Fung, I.Y., S.C. Doney, K. Lindsay, and J. John, 2005: Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing

climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(32), 11201-11206.

6) Jastrow, J.D., R.M. Miller, R. Matamala, R.J. Norby,T.W. Boutton, C.W. Rice, and C.E.

Owensby, 2005: Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide increases soil carbon. Global Change Biology,

11, 2057-2064.

7) Luo,Y., D. Hui, and D. Zhang, 2006: Elevated carbon dioxide stimulates net accumulations of

carbon and nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems:A meta-analysis. Ecology, 87, 53-63.

8) Marland, G.,T.A. Boden, and R.J.Andres, 2005: Global, regional, and national fossil fuel CO2

emissions. In: Trends:A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis

Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge,TN, USA.

9) McRae, D.J., S.G. Conard, G.A. Ivanova,A.I. Sukhinin, S.P. Baker,Y.N. Samsonov,T.W. Blake,

V.A. Ivanov,A.V. Ivanov,T.V. Churkina,W.M. Hao, K.P. Koutzenogij, and N. Kovaleva, 2006:

Variability of fire behavior, fire effects, and emissions in Scotch pine forests of Central Siberia.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 11, 45-74.

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
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10) Monson, R.K., J.P. Sparks,T.N. Rosenstiel, L.E. Scott-Denton,T.E. Huxman, P.C. Harley,A.A.

Turnipseed, S.P. Burns, B. Backlund, and J. Hu, 2005: Climatic influences on net ecosystem CO2

exchange during the transition from wintertime carbon source to springtime carbon sink in a

high-elevation, subalpine forest. Oecologia, 146, 130-147.

11) Monson, R.K., D.L. Lipson, S.P. Burns,A.A.Turnipseed,A.C. Delany, M.W.Williams, and S.K.

Schmidt, 2006:Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community

composition. Nature, 439, 711-714.

12) Morton, D.C., R.S. DeFries,Y.E. Shimabukuro, L.O.Anderson, F. Del Bon Espírito-Santo, M.

Hansen, and M. Carroll, 2005: Rapid assessment of annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

using MODIS data. Earth Interactions, 9, 1-22.

13) Muller-Karger, F.E., R.Varela, R.Thunell, R. Luerssen, C. Hu, and J.J.Walsh, 2005:The

importance of continental margins in the global carbon cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 32,

L01602, doi:10.1029/2004GL021346.

14) Norby, R.J., E.H. DeLucia, B. Gielen, C. Calfapietra, C.P. Giardina, J.S. King, J. Ledford, H.R.

McCarthy, D.J.P. Moore, R. Ceulemans, P. De Angelis,A.C. Finzi, D.F. Karnosky, M.E. Kubiske,

M. Lukac, K.S. Pregitzer, G.E. Scarascia-Mugnozza,W.H. Schlesinger, and R. Oren, 2005: Forest

response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences, 102, 18052-18056.

15) Oren, R., C.-I. Hsieh, P. Stoy, J.Albertson, H.R. McCarthy, P. Harrell, and G.G. Katul, 2006:

Estimating the uncertainty in annual net ecosystem carbon exchange: spatial variation in turbulent

fluxes and sampling errors in eddy-covariance measurements. Global Change Biology, 12, 883-896.

16) Orr, J.C.,V.J. Fabry, O.Aumont, L. Bopp, S.C. Doney, R.A. Feely,A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber,

A. Ishida, F. Joos, R.M. Key, K. Lindsay, E. Maier-Reimer, R. Matear, P. Monfray,A. Mouchet,

R.G. Najjar, G.-K. Plattner, K.B. Rodgers, C.L. Sabine, J.L. Sarmiento, R. Schlitzer, R.D. Slater,

I.J.Totterdell, M.-F.Weirig,Y.Yamanaka, and A.Yool, 2005:Anthropogenic ocean acidification over

the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature, 437, 681-686.

17) Paul, E.A., S.J. Morris, R.T. Conan, and A.F. Plante, 2006: Does the acid hydrolysis-incubation

method measure meaningful soil organic carbon pools? Soil Science Society of America, 70, 1023-1035.

18) Peterson, M.L., S.G.Wakeham, C. Lee, M.A.Askea, J.C. Miquel, 2005: Novel techniques for

collection of sinking particles in the ocean and determining their settling rates. Limnology and

Oceanography, 3, 520-532.

19) Ryan, M.G. and B.E. Law, 2005: Interpreting, measuring and modeling soil respiration.

Biogeochemistry, 73, 3-27.

20) Sacks,W.J., D.S. Schimel, R.K. Monson, and B.H. Braswell, 2005: Model-data synthesis of diurnal

and seasonal CO2 fluxes at Niwot Ridge, Colorado. Global Change Biology, 11, 1-20.

21) Siegel, D.A., S. Maritorena, N.B. Nelson, M.J. Behrenfeld, and C.R. McClain, 2005: Colored

dissolved organic matter and its influence on the satellite-based characterization of the ocean

biosphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20605, doi:10.1029/2005GL024310.

22) Striegl, R.G., G.R.Aiken, M.M. Dornblaser, P.A. Raymond, and K.P.Wickland, 2005:A

decrease in discharge-normalized DOC export by theYukon River during summer through

autumn. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L21413, doi:10.1029/2005GL024413.

23) Stoy, P.C., G.G. Katul, M.B.S. Siqueira, J.-Y. Juang, H.R. McCarthy, H.-S. Kim,A.C. Oishi, and

R. Oren, 2005:Variability in net ecosystem exchange from hourly to inter-annual time scales at

adjacent pine and hardwood forests: a wavelet analysis. Tree Physiology, 25, 887-902.

24) Tan, Z., S. Liu, C.A. Johnston,T.R. Loveland, L.L.Tieszen, J. Liu, and R. Kurtz, 2005: Soil

organic carbon dynamics as related to land use history in the northwestern Great Plains. Global

Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB3011, doi:10.1029/2005GB002536.

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
6 Ecosystems

Ecosystems provide goods (e.g., food, fiber, fuel, pharmaceutical products) and

services (e.g., the cycling of water and nutrients, the regulation of weather and climate,

the removal of waste products, natural beauty, sustaining biological diversity) to

society. Global change—including land-use change and climate change, as well as

other environmental change such as habitat fragmentation, the spread of invasive

species, and pollution—is affecting the ability of these life support systems to sustain

the goods and services required by our growing population.Therefore, it is important

to focus research on furthering our understanding of ecosystem processes, including

the interactions of ecosystems with the atmosphere and physical climate system as

well as the effects of human activities on ecosystems.The goal of the ecosystems

research element is to understand and project the potential effects of global change

on ecosystems, the goods and services ecosystems provide, and ecosystem links to the

climate system.This improved understanding leads to better management practices

because of the ability to anticipate longer term ecosystem effects.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Strategic Research Questions

8.1 What are the most important feedbacks between

ecological systems and global change (especially

climate), and what are their quantitative relationships?

8.2 What are the potential consequences of global change

for ecological systems?

8.3. What are the options for sustaining and improving

ecological systems and related goods and services,

given projected global changes?

See Chapter 8 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
In FY 2007, one research focus for the CCSP Ecosystems InteragencyWorking Group

(EIWG) is to increase understanding of the relationship between climate variability

and change and ecosystem net primary production and biodiversity.Topics of emphasis

are societally important ecosystems and regions where near-term abrupt environmental

changes may occur.A central element of this effort will be the ongoing development

and improvement of predictive models that operate across spatial scales to enable

ecological forecasting for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Research conducted by

CCSP member agencies continues to improve our understanding of the drivers and

impacts of climate variability and change.The challenge for the EIWG lies in furthering

our understanding of the relationship of these drivers and impacts to ecological

processes, which will ultimately require the linking, if not direct coupling, of

geophysical climate models with ecosystem models.

This EIWG effort contributes to all five CCSP Goals with an emphasis on Goal 4. It

also directly addresses the CCSP ecosystems research element questions 8.1, 8.2, and

8.3. Strong synergies and interactions exist with other CCSP research elements,

including, but not limited to, the climate variability and change, water cycle, carbon

cycle, and land-use/land-cover change research elements.

Successful research and application require collaboration across agencies, as well as

ongoing input from scientists within and outside the Federal government.The

participating agencies of the EIWG work collaboratively in research program

oversight and execution as described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. Many of the research

accomplishments and plans described in this chapter represent the joint efforts of

multiple agencies and/or the work of agencies and their external partners and

cooperators.The EIWG engages the research community in providing input and

feedback on its plans.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT ACTIVITIES

Priority Setting for Ecosystems Research in CCSPWorkshop Report.10 A

non-Federal writing team has published Ecosystems and Climate Change: Research

Priorities for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Recommendations from the

Scientific Community, a report of the EIWG workshop held in 2004. More than 70

scientists came together in the workshop to identify and discuss priorities and

approaches for the Ecosystems chapter (Chapter 8) of the CCSP Strategic Plan.The

authors used the presentations and breakout summaries to develop recommendations

and insights for the EIWG to use in program development.The report concludes that

Chapter 8 in the CCSP Strategic Plan provides a good foundation and establishes

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boundary conditions for ecosystems research. General themes included the need to

improve observation systems; use more large-scale experiments; integrate models

using monitoring data, observations, and experimental data; and communicate results

and uncertainties to policymakers and resource managers.A central recurring theme

was the need to develop better mechanistic understandings of ecosystem processes,

including interactions of ecosystems with the atmosphere,climate, and human activities,

to better model and increase our confidence in predictions of ecosystem responses

and feedbacks to global changes.

Positive Feedback Effect of ArcticWarming: Shrub andTree Expansion

into Snow-Free Areas.4 As concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

increase, a major challenge to predicting Earth’s future climate is understanding how

various feedbacks alter the contribution of greenhouse gases to climate change.

Synthetic analysis of field data collected in arctic Alaska show that summer changes in

the reflectivity (albedo) of arctic terrestrial environments contribute substantially to

observed recent warming in the Arctic. Specifically, recent pronounced terrestrial

summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free

season, amplifying global warming in the Arctic through a positive feedback mechanism

involving reduced snow cover (highly reflective)—the main cause of summer warming

observed to date—and expanding shrub and tree cover, which is likely to contribute

disproportionately to future summer warming.As a result, atmospheric heating has

increased by approximately 3Wm-2 per decade—a value similar to the regional heating

expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Calculations

show that 11,600 km2 has been converted from tundra to forest in the last 50 years,

representing 2.3% of the Arctic’s treeless area. Current general circulation models

include the positive feedbacks of reduced snow cover on global warming, but not the

additional feedbacks caused by changes in vegetation, which could raise seasonal

temperatures by an additional 1.1 to 1.6°C (see Figure 36).

Productive Forests May Respond Most Rapidly to Global Change.14 Forests

provide humans with irreplaceable goods and services and sequester the majority of

the terrestrial biosphere’s carbon, making them key components of the global carbon

cycle.Trees in the world’s most productive forests—forests that add the most new

growth each year—tend to die at a younger age than trees in less productive forests.

This discovery, based on a compilation and analysis of results from hundreds of longterm studies worldwide, could help scientists predict how forests will respond to

ongoing and future environmental changes. Recent analyses of these data demonstrated

that forest turnover rates (birth and death rates of trees) vary directly in parallel with

global and regional patterns of forest productivity. Half of all trees in tropical forests

growing on rich soils die and are replaced by new trees in just 30 years. In comparison,

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
a century or more can pass before half of the trees die and are replaced in coniferous

forests growing at high latitudes. Implications of more rapid turnover in tree populations

include: 1)The world’s most productive forests may be those that are likely to

respond most quickly to future environmental changes such as climate change;

2) environmental changes that increase the productivity of a given forest could also

lead to more rapid turnover of trees, decreasing the average age of trees in that forest;

3) other environmental changes that increase forest productivity (e.g., nitrogen

deposition) may also increase forest turnover rates, leading to forests that are more

heavily dominated by younger and smaller trees, with potential effects on wildlife and

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Surface Air Temperature Change: 1961-2004

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Summer (JJA) Ð ¡C

Figure 36: Surface Air

Temperature Change:

1961-2004. This product

provides the spatial pattern of

high-latitude summer (June to

August) surface warming (in °C

over 44 years, 1961 to 2004).

The pattern of temperature

increase was estimated from

monthly anomalies of surface

air temperature from land and

sea stations throughout the

Northern Hemisphere, updated

from Chapman and Walsh

(1993). Credit: F.S. Chapin, III,

University of Alaska–Fairbanks

(reproduced with permission

from Science).
biodiversity; 4) managers wishing to establish forest-monitoring programs for change

detection may wish to devote extra effort toward monitoring their most productive

forest types; and 5) increased dominance by younger trees could lead to changes in

the amount of carbon sequestered or stored by forests. Given the central importance

of forests to the global carbon cycle (hence also to global climate change), and the

increasing importance of carbon storage to international treaties and trading of carbon

credits, it is important to develop a solid understanding of the relationships among

forest productivity, turnover, and carbon storage.This study is among the first to shed

light on these relationships.

Invasive Species Alter Ecosystem Biogeochemistry in HawaiiVolcanoes

National Park.1 Using imagery from the AirborneVisible and Infrared Imaging

Spectrometer (AVIRIS) sensor, researchers at the Carnegie Institution and Stanford

University have documented the impacts of two invasive species, the nitrogen-fixing

tree Myrica faya and the understory herb Hedychium gardnerianum, on the water

content and nitrogen balance in the montane rain forest of HawaiiVolcanoes National

Park.These impacts leave a spectral signal at the top of the tree canopy, which is

detectable by AVIRIS.The park landscape is young, and the low nitrogen content of its

volcanic soils limits forest productivity, leaving a native Metrosideros polymorpha forest

canopy that is low in nitrogen and water content.

The invasive species are driving fundamental changes in ecosystem properties.

Myrica faya fixes nitrogen from the atmosphere, a capacity the native trees lack. Its

canopy is high in nitrogen, and has higher water content. Higher ecosystem nitrogen

concentrations have led to faster leaf turnover, higher rates of nutrient cycling, faster

decomposition, greater nitrogen availability, greater fluxes of nitrogen-containing

trace gases, and ultimately invasion by other nutrient-demanding species.While the

impacts of the tree Myrica faya occur at the canopy level and thus allow direct detection

by remote-sensing systems, locating the understory herb Hedychium gardnerianum

within the heavy forest is also possible due to its significant effects on nitrogen and

water levels in the canopy vegetation above it. Classification of the entire park area

based on canopy chemistry shows that Myrica now dominates 28% of the landscape

and an additional 23% is undergoing transformation, with Myrica growing into the

canopy. Up to 13% of the remaining native forest is infested with Hedychium.The

canopy nitrogen content of the entire region has doubled as a result of the invasion of

Myrica, while the effects of Hedychium are only beginning to be investigated. Park

managers are using the results from this initial study for planning and control of

invasive species.The researchers are also trying to expand the study to include

additional invasive species that maintain unique biochemical properties observable

from imaging spectroscopy.This work documents the ability of invasive species to

alter ecosystems in fundamental ways by not only changing the composition and relative

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
abundance of species but also by dramatically affecting how these systems cycle water

and elements vital for life.

Wood Compression Strength Loss as an Index of Organic Matter

Decomposition in Boreal Forest Mineral Soil.7 Organic matter decomposition

is used in climate change models to assess the possible impacts of temperature increases

on soil carbon in high-latitude (>50°N) boreal forests. Decomposition studies in this

region have mostly focused on surface litter, but very few have investigated organic

matter decomposition in mineral soil as a function of different climates.A 3-year field

study in six Scots pine plantations along a north-south temperature gradient from

Finland to Poland showed that radial compression strength loss was a good index of

wood decomposition. Compression strength losses in wood stakes ranged from 20%

in northern Finland to 94% in central Poland, which corresponded to dry weight

reductions of 3 and 65%, respectively.The compression strength test was a more

sensitive indicator of wood decomposition in colder Finnish soils, which had no stake

weight loss at most soil depths after 3 years. Both compression strength loss and

weight loss decreased as soil depth increased, which likely reflect lower mineral soil

temperatures. Chemical analysis of the wood stakes showed a progressive proportional

decrease in lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose content with total weight and carbon

loss. In contrast, wood nitrogen concentration and content increased as decay progressed.

Results of these studies in Europe indicate that wood stakes can be used to measure

organic matter decomposition in mineral soil across a range of climate conditions or

as climate changes.

Integrating the Effects of Land Use and Global Climate Change on

Hydrology andVegetation of Northern Great PlainsWetlands.6The Prairie

Pothole Region (PPR) in central North America contains millions of glacially formed,

depressional wetlands embedded in a matrix of native grassland and agriculture

(see Figure 37).These

wetlands provide

valuable ecosystem

services to human

populations, and

represent the single

most productive habitat

for waterfowl in the

world.Wetland

availability and emergent

cover conditions are the

primary factors that

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determine the number and diversity of breeding waterfowl that will settle in the PPR.

The well-established sensitivity of prairie wetlands to climate variability portends a

similarly sensitive response to future climate change. Climatic fluctuations drive

hydrology that in turn drives key processes in prairie wetlands.This project was initiated

to quantify how these wetland systems respond to climatic oscillations at regional

scales and to develop simulation models to forecast wetland responses to future climatic

change.The broad spatial and temporal responses across the PPR in terms of climate,

wetland water levels, and vegetation were explored by applying a wetland simulation

model. Model simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding

waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the historic center of the PPR in the

Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan to the wetter eastern and northern fringes,

areas that are currently less productive or where the majority of wetlands have been

drained. Based on these results, unless wetlands in these fringe areas of the PPR are

protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl in the region if faced

with future climate warming. Results suggest a significant shift in the efforts of wetland

managers and where future restoration dollars should be spent in an uncertain climate

future.

Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide May Alter Rangeland Quality.12,15

Rangelands are an important managed ecosystem in North America, providing food

and fiber to large animal populations. Long-term results from the USDA Rangeland

Resource Unit indicate that although rising atmospheric CO2 can enhance forage

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Figure 37: The Prairie Pothole

Region. This photograph

provides an aerial view of

glacially formed, depressional

wetlands embedded in a matrix

of native grassland and

agriculture, located in the Prairie

Pothole Region of central North

America. Recent research based

on possible future climate

scenarios suggests that these

wetlands and their ability to

support breeding waterfowl will

be altered. Credit: J. Ringleman,

Ducks Unlimited.
production of shortgrass prairie, it results in lower quality forage that can degrade

animal performance. Cheatgrass is a recognized invasive annual weed of ecosystems

in the western United States that reduces fire return times from decades to less than

5 years. Results from the USDA Crop Systems and Global Change Unit indicate that

increases in atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century have been sufficient to increase

aboveground biomass of this invasive species by 1.5 to 2.7 g per plant for every

10 parts per million (ppm) increase in CO2 above the 270-ppm pre-industrial baseline.

These data suggest that increasing atmospheric CO2 may have contributed significantly

to cheatgrass productivity and fuel load with subsequent effects on fire frequency and

intensity.

Warming May be Causing Decline of Biological Soil Crusts in Semi-Arid

Ecosystems.3 Drylands, including deserts, shrublands, savannas, and woodlands,

represent about 35% of U.S. land area. Biological soil crusts are the dominant living soil

cover in many of these ecosystems, and are critical for nitrogen (through atmospheric

molecular nitrogen assimilation) and carbon inputs to soils.These inputs support soil

food webs and the mineral nutrition of vascular plants. Biological crusts also contribute

to soil stability (reducing erosion) and water infiltration, and provide important local

environments for seed germination. Monitoring in a semi-arid grassland in Utah that

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Summer Maximum Temperature and the Abundance of Collema

32

Maximum Temperature (previous June, ¡C)

30

8

6

4

2

% Cover 10

12

14

28 34 36 38 40

16

18

20

22

24

1996

1998

1997

2005

2004 2001

2000

1999

2003

2002

Figure 38: Summer Maximum

Temperature and the

Abundance of Collema.

A negative correlation existed

between summer maximum

temperature (mean daily

maximum temperature during

June) and subsequent

abundance of the lichen

Collema, which dominates the

biological soil crust in many

semi-arid western ecosystems.

Even after 2 cooler years, the

lichen had not recovered from

the warm period of 1997 to

2003. Credit: J. Belnap,

S.L. Phillips, and T.T. Troxler,

U.S. Geological Survey.
is protected from human disturbance indicates that the dominant lichen in the soil

crust, Collema, was detrimentally affected by the unusually warm summers between

1996 and 2003 (see Figure 38).The cooler summers of 2004 and 2005 produced

limited recovery of Collema populations.These results indicate that warming in the

arid and semi-arid west has the potential to rapidly alter the abundance of ecologically

important organisms.This observation is being tested by experimentally warming

field plots and quantifying the effects on plant communities and the biological soil

crusts supporting them.

Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration May Counteract

Detrimental Effects of Increased Ozone Pollution onTree Growth.8,9

Research at the DOE Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) facility near Rhinelander,

Wisconsin, is determining possible effects of rising concentrations of CO2 and ozone

(O3) in the lower atmosphere on the growth (accumulated living biomass) of northern

hardwood tree stands.After 6 years of treatments using concentrations of O3 projected

for the year 2050 (i.e., 50% greater than today), total biomass of aspen stands,

aspen-birch mixtures, and aspen-maple mixtures was reduced by 23, 13, and 14%,

respectively. However, when the elevated O3 treatment was combined with the CO2

concentration projected for the year 2050 (i.e., 560 ppm), the aspen biomass was

only 8% lower compared to stands growing in the present ambient atmosphere.

Moreover, the accumulated biomass of the aspen-birch and aspen-maple mixtures was

stimulated (8 and 24%, respectively) by the combination of elevated CO2 and elevated

O3 relative to the present ambient atmosphere.The results emphasize the importance

of studying multiple changes in the environment rather than single (isolated) factors

only, and indicate the importance of species-specific effects of environmental change.

Transfer of Carbon to Adjacent Aquatic Ecosystems in Enhanced Carbon

Dioxide Studies.11 Carbon export from wetlands to estuaries is quantitatively

important at ambient CO2 levels. Study results suggest that elevated atmospheric CO2

concentrations may increase carbon export from some tidal marshes to estuaries. In a

long-term tidal marsh experiment,

elevated CO2 increased soil-water

concentrations of dissolved inorganic

carbon by 27% at 30-cm depth.The

elevated CO2 treatment also

increased concentrations of dissolved

organic carbon and methane, but by

less significant amounts (15 to 27%

and 12 to 18%, respectively).This is

important because the export of

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
inorganic and organic carbon from tidal marsh soils affects the chemistry and productivity

of adjacent estuaries.The study is among the first to suggest that elevated CO2-

enhanced metabolism in terrestrial systems may indirectly influence water quality and

metabolism in adjacent aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Success ofWatershedScale Restoration Strategies in Puget Sound.2,13 Landscapescale watershed planning efforts aimed at restoring the structure and

function of river basins are ubiquitous across the country. Motivations

for these restoration efforts typically include maintaining and improving

water flows and water quality and recovering imperiled species.This

project involved developing models of climate impacts in the western

United States, where considerable resources have been devoted to

designing large-scale habitat restoration plans to bolster water quantity

and promote recovery of salmon and other aquatic species. Most

models predicting the ecological outcomes of such restoration plans do not include

the potential effects of multiple environmental changes in forecasting possible outcomes.

In particular, future climate is likely to affect several important determinants of habitat

quality and quantity, including seasonal flow rates and water temperature.A loosely

linked system of process-based models of climate, hydrology, and salmon population

dynamics was used to examine the possible effects of climate change over the next

50 years on freshwater habitat conditions in the Snohomish River Basin in western

Washington.

The project also explored how predicted impacts of habitat restoration strategies

on salmon are likely to differ when climate change impacts on habitat are included in

predictions of future chinook salmon response. Meteorological output from two global

climate models was downscaled and used to drive a streamflow and temperature

model, the output of which was used to drive a salmon life cycle model. Model

results suggest that climate change will cause increased winter peak streamflow,

decreased summer flow, and increased water temperature throughout the year, all of

which are likely to have negative effects on salmon survival and reproduction.The

two climate models used in the study project different seasonal patterns of rainfall,

which has a large impact on the magnitude of predicted salmon population declines,

suggesting a substantial degree of inherent unpredictability in the projection of climate

change effects on freshwater systems. Model projections suggest that climate change

in this basin may cause 14 to 38% declines in salmon populations.The concurrent

changes in stream habitats due to planned habitat and land-use restoration actions are

likely to lessen the salmon declines, but meeting population recovery targets adopted

for salmon, and water quantity demands for agricultural, urban, and other rural uses,

is likely to be much more difficult in the face of climate change (see Figure 39).

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Snohomish River: Climate and Land-Use Change Impacts by Subbasin, Year 2050

-75% +75%

Change in Average Number

of Adult Chinook Spawners

A1 B1

A2 B2

A3 B3

-40% -20%

-27% -5%

-5% +19%

Figure 39: Snohomish River:

Climate and Land-Use

Change Impacts by Subbasin,

Year 2050. This graphic

provides the projected change

in abundance of spawning

Chinook salmon between 2000

and 2050 under two scenarios

of future climate and three

scenarios of future land use. The

panels in column A are based

on downscaled predictions of

the GFDL_R30 climate model;

column B is based on the

HadCM3 climate model. Row 1

features current (2001) land use;

row 2 features a scenario

including a moderate amount of

habitat restoration; and row 3

features a scenario in which the

restoration plan for the basin is

fully implemented. The number

in the lower left corner of each

panel indicates basin-wide total

change in abundance. Credit:

M.W. Wiley, University of

Washington.
Warming of the Eurasian Landmass Making

the Arabian Sea More Productive.5 Scientists

have used NASA data from ocean color satellites to

show that phytoplankton concentrations in the

western Arabian Sea have increased by more than

350% over the past 7 years.This increase in

phytoplankton coincided with satellite observations

of a decrease in snow cover in Eurasia. Since 1997,

the decline in snow cover has caused a land-ocean

thermal gradient that is particularly favorable to

stronger southwest (summer) monsoon winds.The

sea surface winds have been strengthening over the

western Arabian Sea resulting in stronger monsoon

winds and accompanied by enhanced upwelling.

The strengthened upwelling is the source of the

nutrients causing the blooms.While blooms of

phytoplankton can enhance fisheries, they could

be detrimental to the local ecosystems, causing

eutrophication and oxygen depletion (hypoxia

or anoxia) that could lead to a decline in fish

populations and the production of chemically

relevant trace gases such as nitrous oxide (see

Figure 40).

HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2007 PLANS

Models ofTerrestrial Ecosystems.An important aspect of better understanding

the relationship between ecosystems and climate change is establishing and modeling

impacts and feedback. Efforts are focused on combining observations, inventory, and

experimental data into ecological models coupled with regional and global climate

prediction models.A number of projects focused on improving and coupling such

models are part of CCSP-sponsored research efforts:

• Mountain Ecosystems.A landscape disturbance model will be used to predict responses

of western mountain ecosystems to combinations of climate change and altered fire

regimes.This approach will provide linkages between broad-scale climate variability

and wildfires, and will become the basis for forecasting extreme wildfire years

through empirical models using annual and decadal climate variability data.

• Forests.A satellite-derived vegetation index for tree species will be developed using

USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis national forest inventory data

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and enhanced NASA satellite vegetation data.The study will cover 65 U.S.

ecoregions and will explore the relationship between productivity and diversity at

regional to national scales. Repeated surveys will provide information about the

impacts of a changing climate on productivity.

• Watersheds. Regional assessments have shown potential impacts on water

resources due to the feedbacks between land use and climate change.A review

of public watersheds will provide information about current decisionmaking

practices and help prioritize science needs and watersheds most likely to be

affected.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Reversal in Wind Direction during the Southwest Monsoon

0.1 0.5 1.0 20.0

mg m-3

2.0 5.0 10.0

INDIA

ARABIA

AFRICA High

Low

Figure 40: Reversal in

Wind Direction during the

Southwest Monsoon. This

schematic shows the reversal in

wind direction during the

southwestern monsoon (June to

September) resulting from

changes in the land-sea

pressure gradient.

Credit: J.I. Goes, Bigelow

Laboratory for Ocean Sciences.
These tools will improve our ability to understand and project changes in the

distribution of organisms with changes in climate and other environmental factors.A

number of projects on feedbacks between ecological systems and global change are

closely related to feedbacks being investigated through other research elements and

are being coordinated with other working groups.

These activities will address Questions 6.2, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,and 9.2

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Terrestrial Ecosystem Research.Terrestrial ecosystems research priorities in

FY 2007 follow:

• Soils.A genetic signature from soil microorganisms will be used to develop an

understanding of the mechanisms that control nitrous oxide flux from soil.This

knowledge will be used to better predict nitrous oxide concentrations in the

atmosphere under changing precipitation resulting from different climatic conditions.

• Long-Term Ecological Research Sites. Long-Term Ecological Research sites provide

substantial laboratories for developing an understanding of global change impacts on

a variety of ecosystems.Ten sites are under review for renewal and will be evaluated

for their contributions to improved understanding and management of ecosystems

under a changing environment.

• Species Invasion of Ecosystems.The existing science related to species invasions

associated with global change and their impacts on ecosystems will be evaluated.

Invasive species are one of the primary threats to ecosystems and biodiversity.

More information is needed to better monitor and adapt existing management

practices to help reduce impacts.

• Forest Markets andTrends. Fifty-year projections of future regional forest markets and

trends in forest conditions under alternative climate assumptions will be developed.

The projections will look at modified growth rates and the geographic distribution

of forests in North America.This information will be useful for policymakers

concerned with the long-term implications of climate change on the Nation’s forest

ecosystems.

• Food Security. Food security requires the ability to predict accurately crop-pest

relationships in a changing environment. Studies are underway to address the possible

impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on pest biology. Specifically, the

direct effects of CO2 and concomitant changes in climate on weed growth and

weed/crop competition, and secondary effects on crop hosts that may affect insect

fecundity and pathogen success, will be evaluated.

• Precipitation Change in Piñon-Juniper Ecosystems.The southwestern United States is

currently experiencing an extended drought, which has been blamed for widespread

tree mortality.Although many coniferous species have been affected, the most

extensive mortality has occurred to piñon pine (Pinus edulis), a species that

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dominates one of the most extensive vegetation types in western North America,

the piñon-juniper woodlands. Future climatic change is expected to exacerbate the

frequency and severity of droughts in the southwestern United States.The first

large-scale, replicated experimental study of the effects of changes in precipitation

on a piñon-juniper ecosystem will be underway in FY 2007.

These activities will address Questions 8.1, 8.2, 8.3,and 9.2

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Aquatic Ecosystem Research.Aquatic ecosystem research

priorities in FY 2007 include using integrated modeling systems,

observations, and process studies to project the effects of climate

variability and change on near-coastal and marine ecosystems,

communities, and populations using field work, observations, and

ecosystem models:

• Phytoplankton Carbon Biomass. Global estimates of phytoplankton

carbon biomass from remote-sensing data will be used to develop

carbon/chlorophyll ratios in order to couple carbon and ecosystems

models, and later to couple these with climate models.The

comparison between observations and models helps improve the ecological models,

therefore improving the ability to predict the responses of the ocean ecosystem and

carbon stocks to global warming.

• Salmon and Other Species Response to ClimateVariability.A collaborative research

program will synthesize field and model information in the northeast Pacific to

better understand and predict responses of these ecosystems to climate change.

This synthesis will provide information for policymakers and decisionmakers about

how salmon and other similar species respond to climate variability across the regions.

• Coral Reefs. Research addressing several potential climate-related threats to coral

reefs will be advanced.A reef calcification index will be developed to provide an

important bioindicator of overall reef health, and sustained monitoring will yield

important insights into the impact of ocean acidification on these delicate systems.

In addition, research will continue to develop a bleaching forecast system to provide

managers and researchers with advance warning of impending thermal stress.

• CoastalWetlands.The effects of elevated CO2 on coastal wetlands and interactions

with sea-level rise is very complex and not well understood. Experiments at a

long-running marsh site using elevated CO2 will be used to develop relationships

between plant production, decomposition, and soil carbon and nitrogen.The

studies will provide important information about how tidal wetlands respond to

sea-level rise.

These activities will address Questions 8.1, 8.2,and 8.3

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
153

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) Asner, G.P. and P.M.Vitousek, 2005: Remote analysis of biological invasion and biogeochemical

change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(12), 4383-4386.

2) Bartz, K.K., K.M. Lagueux, M.D. Scheuerell,T. Beechie,A.D. Haas, and M.H. Ruckelshaus,

2006:Translating restoration scenarios into habitat conditions:An initial step in evaluating

recovery strategies for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and

Aquatic Sciences, 63, 1578-1595.

3) Belnap, J., S.L. Phillips, andT.T.Troxler, 2006: Soil lichen and moss cover and species richness can

be highly dynamic: the effects of invasion by the annual exotic grass Bromus tectorum, precipitation,

and temperature on biological soil crusts in SE Utah. Applied Soil Ecology, 32, 63-76.

4) Chapin, F.S. III, M. Sturm, M.C. Serreze, J.P. McFadden, J.R. Key,A.H. Lloyd,A.D. McGuire,

T.S. Rupp,A.H. Lynch, J.P. Schimel, J. Beringer,W.L. Chapman, H.E. Epstein, E.S. Euskirchen,

L.D. Hinzman, G. Jia, C.-L. Ping, K.D.Tape, C.D.C.Thompson, D.A.Walker, and J.M.Welker,

2005: Role of land-surface changes in Arctic summer warming. Science, 310, 657-660.

5) Goes, J.I., P.G.Thoppil, H. do R. Gomes, and J.T. Fasullo, 2005:Warming of the Eurasian

landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive. Science, 308, 545-547.

6) Johnson,W.C., B.V. Millett,T. Gilmanov, R.A.Voldseth, G.R. Guntenspergen, and D.E. Naugle,

2005:Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change. BioScience, 55, 863-872.

7) Jurgensen, M., D.Reed, D. Page-Dumroese, P. Laks,A. Collins, G. Mroz, and M. Degórski,

2006:Wood compression strength loss as an index of organic matter decomposition in northern

forest mineral soil. European Journal of Soil Biology, 42, 23-31.

8) Karnosky, D.F., 2005: Ozone effects on forest ecosystems under a changing global environment.

Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 60(5), 353-358.

9) King, J.S., M.E. Kubiske, K.S. Pregitzer, G.R. Hendrey, E.P. McDonald, C.P. Giardina,V.S. Quinn,

and D.F. Karnosky, 2005:Tropospheric O3 compromises net primary production in young stands

of trembling aspen, paper birch and sugar maple in response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

New Phytologist, 168, 623-635.

10) Lucier,A., M. Palmer, H. Mooney, K. Nadelhoffer, D. Ojima, and F. Chavez, 2006: Ecosystems and

Climate Change: Research Priorities for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Recommendations from the

Scientific Community.Report on an EcosystemsWorkshop, prepared for the Ecosystems Interagency

Working Group. Special Series No. SS-92-06, University of Maryland Center for Environmental

Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD, USA, 56 pp.Available at

<www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp//Library/ecosystems/>.

11) Marsh, A.S., D.P. Rasse, B.G. Drake, and J.P. Megonigal, 2005: Effect of elevated CO2 on carbon

pools and fluxes in a brackish marsh. Estuaries, 28, 694-704.

12) Milchunas, D.G.,A.R. Mosier, J.A. Morgan, D.R. LeCain, J.Y. King, and J.A. Nelson, 2005:

Elevated CO2 and defoliation effects on a shortgrass steppe: forage quality versus quantity for

ruminants. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 111, 166-184.

13) Scheuerell, M.D., R. Hilborn, M.H. Ruckelshaus, K.K. Bartz, K.M. Lagueux,A.D. Haas, and

K. Rawson, 2006:The Shiraz model: a tool for incorporating anthropogenic effects and fishhabitat relationships in conservation planning. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 63,

1596-1607.

14) Stephenson, N.L. and P.J. van Mantgem, 2005: Forest turnover rates follow global and regional

patterns of productivity. Ecology Letters, 8, 524-531.

15) Ziska, L.H., J.B. Reeves III, and R. Blank, 2005:The impact of recent increases in atmospheric

CO2 on biomass production and vegetative retention of Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum): implications

for fire disturbance. Global Change Biology, 11, 1325-1332.

ECOSYSTEMS

CHAPTER REFERENCES
7 Decision-Support Resources

Development and Related

Research on Human

Contributions and Responses

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

CCSP Decision-Support Goals

Decision-Support Goal 1: Prepare scientific syntheses and

assessments to support informed discussion of climate

variability and change and associated issues by decisionmakers,

stakeholders, the media, and the general public.

Decision-Support Goal 2: Develop resources to support adaptive

management and planning for responding to climate variability

and climate change, and transition these resources from

research to operational application.

Decision-Support Goal 3: Develop and evaluate methods

(scenario evaluations, integrated analyses, and alternative

analytical approaches) to support climate change policymaking

and demonstrate these methods with case studies.

Strategic Research Questions

9.1 What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and significance of the primary

human drivers of, and their potential impact on, global environmental

change?

9.2 What are the current and potential future impacts of global environmental

variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity

of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased

and vulnerability reduced?

9.3 How can the methods and capabilities for societal decisionmaking under

conditions of complexity and uncertainty about global environmental

variability and change be enhanced?

9.4 What are the potential human health effects of global environmental change,

and what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental information is needed

to assess the cumulative risk to health from these effects?

See Chapter 11 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of

decision-support resources development and Chapter 9 for these specific research questions.
One of the main purposes of CCSP is to provide information for informed

decisionmaking through the development of decision-support resources. In the context

of activities within the CCSP framework, decision-support resources, systems, and

activities are climate-related products or processes that directly inform or advise

stakeholders in order to help them make decisions.These products or processes

include analyses and assessments, interdisciplinary research, analytical methods

(including scenarios and alternative analysis methodologies), model and data product

development, communication, and operational services that provide timely and useful

information to decisionmakers, including policymakers, resource managers, planners,

government officials, and other stakeholders. Decision-support resources and activities

include not only research activities based in the natural sciences, but also activities

related to human contributions and responses to climate variability and change, such

as demography, economics, history, anthropology, political science, and sociology.

SCIENTIFIC AND STAKEHOLDER INPUT AND GUIDANCE

National Research Council Advice

An important source of scientific expertise and judgment on societal issues related to

global change is the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

(CHDGC) of the National Research Council (NRC).The committee was formed in

1989 to help guide U.S. research on the interactions between human activity and

global environmental change. CHDGC focuses on two main tasks: developing the

intellectual basis for progress in understanding human-environment interactions, and

advising on future research directions.The committee’s advice is particularly relevant

to CCSP’s human contributions and

responses research element, as well as some

aspects of the program’s decision-support

activities.An ad hoc committee has also

been convened to conduct a comparative

analysis of assessments related to climate

change, and will produce a report that will

be used to inform CCSP’s future climate

assessment activities (Decision-Support

Goal 3).This study, Lessons Learned from

Climate and Global Change Assessments, will

attempt to identify ways to make global

change assessments more useful for policy

and research.

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CCSPWorkshop

The program’s progress and future plans regarding its three decision-support goals

were addressed in November 2005 at a CCSP workshop, Climate Science in Support

of Decisionmaking, in Arlington,Virginia. Over 700 individuals participated in the

workshop, including an international audience of climate scientists, decisionmakers,

and users of information on climate variability and change from academia, governments

at the State, local, and national levels, nongovernmental organizations, Congress,

interest groups, and the private sector.

The workshop featured plenary presentations from high-level policymakers, scientists,

and the private sector, and several breakout sessions conducted over a 2-day period.

The first set of breakout sessions was organized to provide information to participants

on the status of assessments being prepared (or recently completed) by CCSP, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the NRC, and other institutions,

and to develop recommendations to improve the conduct and utility of future

assessments. On the second day, five breakout sessions addressed applications of climate

science to management of different sectors: water, ecosystems, coastal, air quality, and

energy systems.The objectives of these five sessions were to:

• Discuss how well research is meeting the needs of decisionmakers

• Describe development and application of resources to support adaptive management

and climate policy development

• Identify program needs and gaps.

Participants provided positive feedback on the opportunity to learn about CCSP’s

activities and exchange information with other scientists and decisionmakers. CCSP

will use insights from the workshop to guide current and future CCSP programs, and

intends to provide additional forums for communication about this aspect of the

program in the future.A brief summary of key points raised during the workshop is

available at <www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005>.This site also contains copies

of workshop presentations and posters.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES GOAL 1:

SCIENTIFIC SYNTHESES AND ASSESSMENTS

The CCSP Strategic Plan defines “assessments” as “processes that involve analyzing and

evaluating the state of scientific knowledge (and the associated degree of scientific

certainty) and, in interaction with users, developing information applicable to a

particular set of issues or decisions.”Assessments are an effective means for integrating

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and analyzing CCSP research results with other knowledge, and communicating useful

insights in support of a variety of applications for decision support.Assessments also

help identify knowledge gaps and thus provide valuable input to the process of focusing

research.

A primary activity within CCSP is the development of 21 synthesis and assessment

products to support informed decisionmaking on climate variability and change by a

broad group of stakeholders, including policymakers, resource managers, media, and

the general public.The development of these products stems from the Global Change

Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, section 106), which directs the program

to “produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting to formulate

effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of global

change” and to undertake periodic science “assessments.”The GCRA dictates that the

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CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural

variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and changes.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.1

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences

Temperature change is a fundamental measure of climate change.This product, which is the first to be completed, addresses temperature

changes from the surface through the lower stratosphere and our understanding of the causes of these changes. It assesses progress made

since the reports by the National Research Council (2000) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) and highlights

differences between the individual temperature records determined by components of the existing observational and modeling systems and

documents the potential causes of these differences. See the Atmospheric Composition chapter for a summary of this report’s conclusions.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.2

Past ClimateVariability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes

The Arctic and the high latitudes have warmed more rapidly than almost any other region on Earth over at least the last millennium.This

warming has been accompanied by a decrease in sea-ice cover and thickness and a decrease in ocean salinity. In addition, significant changes

in the permafrost active layer are now being detected. Impacts on humans and ecosystems that are associated with these changes have recently

been reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, which was partially funded by CCSP-participating agencies.The present synthesis and

assessment product on the Arctic and high latitudes will focus on the state of knowledge concerning past changes in the physical climate of

this region and the implications of this record of past changes for current and future change.This information is vital since high-latitude

regions are projected to continue to experience the greatest warming in the future.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.3

Re-Analysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change

A re-analysis is a detailed, retrospective study of the state of the atmosphere using a consistent numerical model of the dynamics of the

system and based on observations for the time period of the study.This product will provide an assessment of the capability and limitations

of state-of-the-art climate re-analysis to describe past and current climate conditions, and the consequent implications for scientifically

interpreting the causes of climate variations and change.The product will be in the form of a report that summarizes the present status of

national and international climate re-analysis efforts, and discusses key research findings on the strengths and limitations of current re-analysis

products for describing and analyzing the causes of climate variations and trends that have occurred during the time period of the re-analysis

records (roughly the past half-century).The report will describe how re-analysis products have been used in documenting, integrating, and

advancing our knowledge of climate system behavior, as well as in ascertaining significant remaining uncertainties in descriptions and physical

understanding of the climate system.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS
program’s assessments should “analyze the effects of global change on the natural

environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources,

transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological

diversity.”The scope of some of the synthesis and assessment products was recently

revised to make them as responsive as possible to the GCRA.

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CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.1

A. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations;and B. Global-Change Scenarios:Their Development and Use

This product consists of two components: (a) development of new scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations,

and (b) a review of integrated scenario development and application.These two components are intended to contribute to and enhance the

iterative international process of producing and refining climate-related scenarios and scenario tools.The first component will use several

integrated assessment models as the foundation for a small group of new global emissions scenarios leading to long-term stabilization of

greenhouse gas concentrations.The second component will review and evaluate how the science and stakeholder communities define, develop,

implement, and communicate scenarios in the global climate change context, and how this process might be enhanced or improved.This will

include a review of past scenario development and application efforts.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.2

North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle

This product will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American carbon budget (including land,

atmosphere, inland waters, and adjacent oceans) and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers, it will

summarize our knowledge of carbon cycle properties and changes relevant to the contributions of, and impacts upon, the United States and

the rest of the world; and provide scientific information for U.S. decision support focused on key issues for carbon management and policy. It

will address carbon emissions; natural reservoirs and sequestration; rates of transfer; the consequences of changes in carbon cycling; effects of

purposeful carbon management; effects of agriculture, forestry,and natural resource management;and socioeconomic drivers and consequences.

The report will include an analysis of North America’s carbon budget that will document the state of knowledge and quantify uncertainties.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.2

Aerosol Properties and their Impacts on Climate

Aerosols can cause a net cooling or warming within the climate system, depending upon their physical and chemical characteristics. In addition

to these direct effects, aerosols can also have indirect effects on radiative forcing of the climate system by changing cloud properties.The first

phase of development of this product is to produce major scientific reviews of the following three topics: dependence of radiative forcing by

tropospheric aerosols on aerosol composition in the north Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions; measurement-based understanding of

aerosol radiative forcing from remote-sensing observations; and model intercomparison to quantify uncertainties associated with indirect

aerosol forcing.The second-phase product will draw upon the scientific information gathered by the development of the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report and the National Research Council review, “Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.”These community-wide assessments of

climate change (and the aerosol-climate topic inclusively) will be drawn upon when writing this synthesis and assessment product.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.4

Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery,and Implications for Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure and Climate Change

Measurements of ozone-depleting gases in the atmosphere have shown that the concentrations of these gases are declining in response to the

agreements reached under the Montreal Protocol.This report will provide an update on trends in stratospheric ozone, ozone-depleting gases,

and ultraviolet radiation exposure; progress in improving model evaluations of the sensitivity of the ozone layer to changes in tropospheric

composition and climate; and relevant implications for the United States.This information is key to ensuring that international agreements to

phase out production of ozone-depleting substances are having the expected outcome: recovery of the protective ozone layer.The report will

derive most of its information from recent international assessments of stratospheric ozone, ozone-depleting substances, and climate.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
HCR Research on Assessment and Decision-Support Methods

CCSP supports research and tool development to advance the components of

assessments that focus on human behavior and socioeconomic trends.Assessments

need to incorporate projections of social and economic change (e.g., population and

technological change) as well as the effects of environmental change on communities

and sectors (e.g., transportation, health, agriculture, etc.). Decision support also

requires methods and tools to undertake comparative work across communities,

regions, and sectors. Highlights of some of this work are provided below.

Highlights of Recent Activities and Research

Development of Population Scenarios. Population scenarios have been developed

with CCSP funding that bridge the gap between the socioeconomic scenarios (including

input to greenhouse gas scenarios) developed by the IPCC and socioeconomic

conditions at U.S. State levels. Population scenarios at the State level are needed to

assess the consequences of global change for water quality, air quality, human health,

and aquatic ecosystems.A new approach was used to develop State-level population

projections that are consistent with IPCC assumptions and projections.This method

preserves knowledge of the age distribution of the population over time.

Assessments ofTransportation-Related Issues.An assessment of the greenhouse

gas emissions benefits of heavy-duty natural gas and diesel vehicles in the United States

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CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.1

Climate Models:An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications

The topics addressed by this product are the strengths and limitations of climate models at different spatial and temporal scales. Its purpose is

to provide information on the results from climate models, in ways that will allow the potential user of the information to evaluate how best

it may be applied.The product will focus on natural and human-caused factors influencing climate variability and change during the period

from 1870 to 2000. It will characterize sources of uncertainty in climate models and their implications for estimating future climate change.

This product will be limited to models and their sensitivity, feedbacks, strengths, and limitations, rather than making specific future projections.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.2

Climate Projections based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived Radiatively Active Trace Gases

and Future Climate Impacts of Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols

This product will have two distinct components.The first will be to produce climate projections for research and assessment based on

greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and atmospheric concentrations as reported in Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a.The second will

be to produce climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios for methane and short-lived gaseous and

particulate species developed by a number of global change research groups.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
was undertaken to help improve the understanding of the potential for greenhouse gas

emissions reduction though use of these vehicles. By evaluating existing CO2 and

other transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions data, this study identified future

research and data needs to determine the emissions benefits of alternative-fueled

heavy-duty vehicles.The study, Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Benefits of Heavy

Duty Natural GasVehicles in the U.S., can be found at <climate.dot.gov/papers.html>.

In addition, an assessment of long-range transportation planning initiatives in

northeastern states was conducted.This study examined the climate and energy

benefit plans of northeastern States and assessed how transportation and long-range

transportation planning fit into the development of State policy approaches to climate

change. It addresses the status of State climate change programs, the inclusion of

transportation in the programs, and how State departments of transportation could be

more effective.This study, Assessing State Long-Range Transportation Planning

Initiatives in the Northeast for Climate and Energy Efficiency Benefits, can be found at

<climate.volpe.dot.gov/docs/final-bbg.pdf>.

Tools to Support Different-Place Collaboration of Climate Change

Researchers.10,13 Collaboratories are virtual places where teams of geographically

distributed scientists engage in collaborative research.The NSF-, NOAA-, and USGSsupported Human-Environment Regional Observatory (HERO) project has been

developing a collaboratory tool to support work by scientists studying the local- and

regional-scale impacts of climate variation and change.The HERO toolkit includes

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CCSP Goal 3 (continued)

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.3

Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate

The impact of climate extremes can be severe and wide-ranging.There is evidence that the economic impact of weather and climate

extremes in the United States has increased over the past several decades, but the evidence for increases in extreme weather and climate

events varies, depending on the event of interest.These events may be related to temperature parameters (severe freezes, heat waves),

precipitation (wet spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts, ice and hail, snow cover and depth), or tropical and extra-tropical storm

frequency. Identifying recent changes and trends in such parameters will be a focus of the report, as will be identifying what can be said

about future changes. Since extreme weather and climate events on a global scale are regularly addressed in international assessments, this

synthesis and assessment product will focus on weather and climate extremes primarily across Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.4

Abrupt Climate Change

The paleoclimate record reveals that Earth’s climate can change rapidly and strongly between different stable states.Various scenarios portray

future abrupt climate change large enough to pose a significant challenge to society.The goal of this product is to review and synthesize our

current understanding of abrupt climate change and to identify gaps in our knowledge.The report will integrate information from the

paleoclimate record, the instrumental record, and numerical model-based studies at various spatial scales. Key identified risks, such as

changes in ocean thermohaline circulation and alteration of terrestrial hydrologic conditions (e.g., the location or amount of precipitation),

will receive special attention because the potential impacts on society are large.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
web and other Internet-based methods and tools to enable same-time (synchronous)

and different-time (asynchronous) different-place collaboration.The toolkit supports

same-time distributed meetings, including video links and shared visual display of

geospatial information; different-time perspective-comparison and consensus-building

activities; and long-term information sharing and knowledge development. Examples

include an e-Delphi tool that supports the sharing and comparing of expert opinions,

and a web portal that provides a personal workspace, mechanisms for forming groups

and accessing group resources, and methods for encoding information with geographic

referencing.

Highlights of Plans for FY 2007

The program’s highest-priority activities in FY 2007 under its decision-support goal

are the synthesis and assessment products. Illustrative highlights of other plans for

FY 2007 are given below.

Knowledge Systems for Sustainable Development. In FY 2007, the final

results of a multi-institutional study on Knowledge Systems for Sustainable

Development will be communicated to a broad audience through a special, invited

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CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human

systems to climate and related global changes.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.1

Coastal Elevations and Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise

This product will examine the vulnerability of coastal areas in the U.S. mid-Atlantic states to sea-level change. Specific questions to be

addressed include identifying which areas are low enough to be inundated by tides, how floodplains would change due to a changing climate,

which areas might be subject to erosion, and locations where wetlands will be able to migrate inland versus locations where shores will be

protected.The product will examine the implications of sea-level rise, including impacts on population and economic activity in vulnerable

areas, costs of shore protection, ecological effects, flood damages, public access to modified shore areas, cases where sea-level rise justifies

policy changes, options being considered by conservancies and governments, and lessons from the unfolding consequences of the 2005

hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.2

State-of-Knowledge of Thresholds of Change that Could Lead to Discontinuities in Some Ecosystems and Climate-Sensitive Resources

There is a body of ecosystems research that focuses on enhancing understanding of climate change impacts on ecosystems (and vice versa)

and developing the capability to predict potential impacts of future climate change. Increasing emphasis is being placed on climate-related

thresholds that could result in discontinuities or sudden changes in ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources. Discontinuities in responses of

ecosystems and resources are difficult to predict, and may significantly affect human societies that depend on ecosystem goods and services.

Improved understanding of such sudden changes is essential to managing ecosystems and resources in the face of climate change.This report

will synthesize the present state of scientific understanding regarding thresholds of change that trigger sudden changes in ecosystems and

climate-sensitive resources.The report will develop a conceptual framework for characterizing sudden changes, and synthesize peerreviewed studies that provide the best available evidence for defining circumstances that trigger discontinuities in response to climate change.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

CCSP Goal 4 (continued)

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.3

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land,andWater Resources

This report will address the effects of climate change on agriculture, forestry, land and water resources, and biodiversity.Temperature,

precipitation, and related climate variables are fundamental regulators of biological processes. For this reason human-induced climate change

has the potential to affect the condition, composition, structure, and function of ecosystems. Such changes may also alter the linkages and

feedbacks between ecosystems and the climate system.Additionally, ecosystems produce a wide array of goods and services valued by humans.

Climate-related changes in ecosystems and other key resources could have impacts on human communities and economic conditions.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.4

Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources

Climate is a dominant factor influencing the distribution, abundance, structure, and function of, and services provided by, ecosystems. Many

ecosystems are thus vulnerable to future changes in climate.The goal of adaptation is to reduce these risks of adverse ecological outcomes

through management activities that increase the resilience of these systems to climate change. Resilience is defined here as the magnitude of

disturbance that can be absorbed by a system before it shifts from one stable state (or stability domain) to another and the speed of return of

a system to equilibrium after a disturbance has occurred.This report will provide a review and synthesis of information on adaptation options

for selected climate-sensitive ecosystems in order to aid in designing management strategies that facilitate adaptation, provide examples of

how to implement strategies in specific places, and identify issues and challenges associated with implementation of adaptation options.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.5

Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States

This product will summarize the current knowledge base concerning the possible effects of global change on energy production and use in the

United States. It will survey and assess the available literature, paying attention to research findings on the implications of climate variability

for energy production and use; identify and consider relevant studies carried out in connection with CCSP, CCTP, and other programs of

CCSP agencies (e.g., DOE’s Energy Information Administration); and consult stakeholders (e.g., the electric utility and energy industries,

environmental NGOs, and academia) to determine what analyses have been conducted and what reports have been issued. Besides addressing

questions of possible direct effects of climate change on energy consumption and production in the United States, the product will also

consider how climate change might affect various factors that indirectly shape energy production and consumption, such as energy technology

choices, energy institutional structures, regional economic growth, energy prices, energy security, and environmental emissions.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.6

Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health andWelfare and Human Systems

The goal of this product is to examine linkages across physical, biological, and human systems in three separate assessments of the impacts of

environmental change (climate variability and climate and land-use change) on human health and well-being.The assessment of human health

will focus on the impacts of extreme heat and cold and extreme weather events, health effects of air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases,

and vector- and rodent-borne diseases.The assessment of human welfare will consider the non-market welfare impacts on quality of life and

on other valuations of aesthetics and human amenities.The assessment of human systems will examine the impacts of climate and land-use

change on human settlements, including, for instance, the vulnerability of urban infrastructure to flooding; the potential impacts on water

supplies resulting from warming, droughts, and flash floods; the dangers posed to human settlements by wildfire; and the effect of heat

waves on fluctuations in energy demand in urban population centers.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.7

Impacts of ClimateVariability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study

This product will address potential effects of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and systems in the central Gulf

Coast of the United States.The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge base regarding the risks and sensitivities of transportation

infrastructure to climate variability and change, the significance of these risks, and the range of adaptation strategies that may be considered

to ensure a robust and reliable transportation network. Implications for all transportation modes—surface, marine, and aviation—will be

addressed.The three-phase study will focus on the Gulf Coast, and will assess the significant risks to transportation, develop methodology to

be applied in other geographic locations, identify potential strategies for adaptation, and develop decision-support tools to assist decisionmakers

in incorporating climate-related trend information into transportation system planning, design, engineering, and operational decisions.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
issue of the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (PNAS).The Knowledge

Systems project seeks to understand and promote the design of effective systems to

harness research-based knowledge for sustainability.The project considers “knowledge

systems” to be networks of linked actors, organizations, and objects that perform a

number of knowledge-related functions (e.g., research, innovation, development,

demonstration, deployment, and adoption) involved in linking knowledge with action.

This work is particularly relevant to CCSP, given its emphasis on decision support. Prior

to the special PNAS issue, findings of the project are being extended and evaluated

through a series of workshops run in collaboration with the Roundtable on Science

andTechnology for Sustainability (see <www7.nationalacademies.org/

sustainabilityroundtable/Sustainability_Roundtable_Homepage.html>).

This activity will address Questions 9.2 and 9.3of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision Support Objective 1.1.

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CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related

to climate variability and change.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.1

Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts,and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions

This product will focus on characterizing a subset of the observations from remote-sensing and in situ instrumentation that are of high value

for decisionmaking.The product will characterize observational capabilities that are currently or could potentially be used in decision-support

tools, catalog a subset of ongoing decision-support activities that use these capabilities, and evaluate a limited number of case studies.The

detailed evaluation of decision-support activities and demonstration projects will provide information to agencies and organizations responsible

for developing, operating, and maintaining selected decision-support processes and tools.The evaluation will also provide information on

the nature of interactions between users and producers of climate science information, approaches for accessing science information, and

assimilation of scientific information in the decisionmaking process.The product will include an on-line catalog of decision-support

demonstration projects with interactive links, which will be updated as additional experiments are conducted and new approaches to

incorporating and benchmarking application of observations and other global change research products evolve.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.2

Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating,and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decisionmaking

This product will address the issue of uncertainty and its relationship to science, assessment, and decisionmaking. Specifically, the product is

intended to help improve the quality and consistency of information about scientific uncertainty presented to decisionmakers and other users

of CCSP reports by identifying “best practice” options recommended in the literature on this subject; improve communication between

scientists and users of the products by providing a simple “users’ guide” on interpreting information about uncertainty contained in the

reports; and provide a brief overview of the literature on approaches for taking account of uncertainty in decisionmaking.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

This product will concentrate on the water-resource management sector. It will describe and evaluate current forecasts, assess how forecasts

are being used in decision settings, and evaluate decisionmakers’ level of confidence in these forecasts.The participants in the development of

this product (primarily consisting of government officials, researchers, and users) will evaluate forecasts as well as their delivery, to identify

options for improving partnerships between the research and user communities. It will inform decisionmakers about the experiences of others

who have experimented with the use of seasonal and interannual forecasts and other observational data; climatologists and social scientists

about how to advance the delivery of decision-support resources that use the most recent forecast products, methodologies, and tools; and

science managers as they plan for future investments in research related to forecasts and their role in decision support.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
Decisionmaking under Uncertainty Program.The increased knowledge

generated by recent scientific research on the causes and consequences of climate change

and variability has led to a growing need to better understand how decisionmakers

can use this knowledge to make wiser choices. Five interdisciplinary research teams

are studying important aspects of climate-related decisions under uncertainty over a

5-year period (see <www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100447&org=SBE>).

Research centers are located at Arizona State, Carnegie-Mellon, and Columbia

universities. Other interdisciplinary teams are conducting research at the University

of Colorado at Boulder and Rand Corporation in California. Overviews of the activities

of three of these centers follow.

• The Rand Center is conducting fundamental research on two key questions important

to the design and use of decision tools for supporting climate change decisionmaking:

What are the best ways to represent uncertainty for decisionmakers?What tools and

methods work best in practice in providing these representations to decisionmakers?

The project (see <www.rand.org/ise/projects/improvingdecisions/about.html>)

strengthens the scientific foundations of robust decisionmaking, a promising new

approach to computer-assisted support for decisions under conditions of “deep

uncertainty” (e.g., when the likelihoods of different futures or the exact connection

between policy actions and their effects is poorly understood).This research draws

on interactions with decisionmakers in two policy areas: long-term planning for

the management of water supplies by the California Department ofWater

Resources, and the design of scientific observation systems that could provide

actionable warning of abrupt climate change.

• The Climate Decision Making Center at Carnegie-Mellon University

(<cdmc.epp.cmu.edu>) is conducting research on limits in the understanding of

climate change and its impacts.They are developing and demonstrating methods to

characterize these irreducible uncertainties, focusing on uncertainties about climate

and technologies for mitigation.They will also create, illustrate, and evaluate

decision strategies and tools for policymakers that

incorporate such uncertainties.The center’s research

focuses on the real-world problems of the following

stakeholder groups:

– Insurance managers who face financial risks from

climate change and low-carbon technologies

– Forest, fisheries, and ecosystem managers in the

Pacific Northwest and Canada

– Arctic-region decisionmakers trying to balance

cultural lifestyles with economic development

– Electric utility managers facing large capitalinvestment decisions in the face of climate risks.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
In addition, the center will advance the current understanding of new low- or zerocarbon energy technologies that may be required by climate policy.

• The Center for Science Policy Assessment and Research on Climate (SPARC) at

the University of Colorado (<sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc>) examines the

effectiveness of the relationship between science policy decisions and climate policy

decisions. “Science policy decisions” are defined as those concerned with governing

the climate science research enterprise.The Center distinguishes such decisions

from “climate policy decisions,” which are those made in anticipation of or in

response to climate change.The relationship between science policy decisions and

climate policy decisions has not been systematically examined.The SPARC research

agenda will focus on two themes: reconciling supply and demand for climate

research, which involves examining how research agendas are developed and how

user demand for research is assessed; and sensitivity analysis, which involves

examining how specific research issues are prioritized given the multiple causes of

global environmental change.There are currently four SPARC research projects:

– Climate Science Policy in the Regional Integrated Science and Assessment

Program

– Reconciling Supply and Demand – Carbon Cycle Science Activities

– Ecosystem Function Sensitivity Analysis Activities

– Extreme Events and Climate Change Sensitivity Analysis Activities.

This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, support Decision Support

Objectives 3.1 and 3.2,and applies to Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2.

The National Research Council’s Committee on the

Human Dimensions of Global Change.As described above,

this committee provides broad scientific expertise to CCSP.

Additional soon-to-be completed studies relevant to CCSP

include:

• Public Participation in Environmental Assessment and Decision

Making.This major study was begun in 2001 to evaluate and

summarize the state of knowledge about how to combine

broadly based deliberation with scientific analysis to inform

environmental decisions.A report is expected in mid-2007.

• Confidentiality Issues Arising from Linking Remotely Sensed and Self-Identifying

Data:This study seeks ways to reconcile the conflicting needs for confidentiality

and open access to data that are creating barriers to scientific efforts to gain

knowledge by linking remotely sensed and self-identifying data.A report is expected

in 2007.

This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and support Decision Support Objectives 2.2 and 3.1.

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DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES GOAL 2:

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT / PLANNING DECISIONS

A number of efforts are underway to support adaptive management and planning

decisions (operational decisions for managing resources, societal response mechanisms,

and long-term infrastructure planning).These activities include analyses for many

sectors, including agriculture, forestry, water supply, and fisheries. Some of the main

climate challenges being addressed for these sectors are drought and variations in the

frequency of temperature extremes, severe precipitation, and runoff. Progress is

being made to engage stakeholders at local and regional levels in an effort to bring

information about the impacts of climate variability and change to bear on their

management and planning decisions. Stakeholders include Governors’ offices, State

and Federal water management agencies, agricultural extension specialists, farmers,

fisheries councils, wildland fire managers, and many others. Bringing climate science

to these decisionmakers, analyzing the impacts of climate on their decisions, and

collaborating with them to produce new knowledge and tools are all key parts of this

component of CCSP.The following are some examples of progress in this area.

Highlights of Recent Activities and Research

Global Data Sources for Estimating Crop Production.8 A report was

published in 2005 documenting the initial steps toward improving estimates of crop

production using next-generation space-borne Earth observation sensors.The

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the USDA Foreign

Agricultural Service uses NASA Earth science data products to improve the

decisionmaking process through their analysis of monthly global crop production

estimates of select agricultural commodities.The results of PECAD’s global analyses

of select commodities are communicated to theWorld Agricultural Board.

Sistema Regional de Monitoreo yVisualización (SERVIR) –The

MesoamericanVisualization and Monitoring System. On 1 February 2005,

SERVIR, a regional monitoring and visualization system, was inaugurated for

environmental and disaster decision support within Mesoamerica. It intensively utilizes

satellite imagery, models, and other geoscience information that can be interactively

used by scientists, educators, policymakers, students, and the general public to monitor

and forecast ecological changes and respond to disasters such as forest fires, drought,

and volcanic eruptions (see Figure 41).The tool includes space-based observations and

predictive capabilities along with other geospatial data sets, interactive on-line maps,

thematic decision-support tools, and three-dimensional interactive visualizations.The

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
computational architecture of SERVIR also hosts data from other regional initiatives

such as the Inter-American Biodiversity Information Network, and the United Nations

Environmental Programme’s Global Resource Information Database for Latin America

and the Caribbean.The system is headquartered at theWater Center for the Humid

Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean in the City of Knowledge, Panama.A fully

functional rapid prototyping center and test bed for the SERVIR facility is located at

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville,Alabama.The SERVIR functional

capabilities are

accessible online at

<servir.nsstc.

nasa.gov>.

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Central American 

O ficials, Researchers, 

Educators, etc.

• Species Preservation

• Sustained Development

• Be ter Living Conditions

• Emergency Response

• Policy Changes

• Corridor Preservation

Landsat, SRTM, 

IKONOS, MODIS, 

AMSR-E

Aqua Terra

EDOS

Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support Products

Results

SERVIR Node 

Panama City, 

Panama

SERVIR Node 

at NSSTC

Web Server

at NSSTC

SERVIR Node

at NSSTC

SERVIR Node 

at NSSTC

SERVIR-Decision Support for Mesoamerica

Fires Land Cove /Use/Change Red Tide

An Environmental Monitoring and Decision 

Support System for Central America

Figure 41: SERVIR – Decision Support for Mesoamerica.

This schematic illustrates the components of SERVIR

environmental and disaster support for Mesoamerica.

Credit: NASA/Science Mission Directorate.
NewYork Climate and Health Project.9 A team of climate and health scientists

funded by NOAA, EPA, and NASA has been conducting interdisciplinary research on

climate variability, climate change, land use, air quality, and human health in the New

York Metropolitan Region.They have developed an integrated modeling system for

assessing potential public health impacts related to heat stress and ground-level ozone.

In particular, they linked a global climate model to regional climate models and a

regional atmospheric chemistry model to produce downscaled heat and ozone estimates

for the 1990s and the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under fast-growth and slower growth

socioeconomic and climate scenarios and downscaled land-use scenarios (see Figure 42).

A health risk assessment of mortality impacts was conducted at the county level with

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

New York Climate and Health Project:

Model Projections for the 2050s

1.5

a) b)

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 >

Temperature Change (¡C)

3 3 11

Change in Ozone Levels (ppb)

c) d)

-2 -4 4-6 >6

Change in Ozone-Related Deaths (%)

1990s Urban Land 2050s New Urban Land

Land-Use Change

Figure 42: New York Climate

and Health Project: Model

Projections for the 2050s.

These model projections

employ the 2050 IPCC A2

emissions scenario:

(a) temperature changes

simulated with the Mesoscale

Modeling System Generation 5

(MM5) regional model; (b) ozone

changes simulated with the

Community Multiscale Air

Quality (CMAQ) modeling

system; (c) land-use changes

simulated with the Slope,

Land-Use Elevation, Urban,

Transportation, and Hillshading

(SLEUTH) model; and (d)

change in ozone-related deaths.

Credit: C. Rosenzweig,

NASA/Goddard Institute for

Space Studies (panel d

reproduced with permission

from Environmental Health

Perspectives).
these multi-model simulations of future environmental conditions.As part of this

effort, more recent research has focused on providing improved understanding of

climate and health vulnerability for stakeholders in support of decisionmaking in the

NewYork region.This in-depth climate-health research is providing improved tools

for decisionmakers in the region regarding public health risks due to potential heat

and air quality changes.

Using Climate Change Information in Natural Resource Management:

Considerations of Natural Resource Managers.7This research explored how

resource managers and agencies are developing management activities to potentially

address resource management under a changing climate. In listening to over 70 natural

resource managers and professionals in the western United States, it was found that an

understanding of climate variability and change was often an important consideration

in the development of their management activities. Natural resource managers from

Federal agencies, State agencies, and nongovernmental organizations are bringing the

consideration of climate into the management arena through current institutional

processes such as assessment, monitoring, focused research, education, planning, fieldbased activities, and mitigation. Natural resource managers tended to give greater

consideration to climate change when scientifically accepted quantitative relationships

between climate and a specific natural resource (e.g., water) were available and also

when applications were available that could easily be used within the manager’s current

planning or management framework. Managers benefiting from partnerships with

climate-focused organizations, extension staff, and/or scientists within their geographic

areas were able to incorporate consideration of climate variability and change into the

management planning processes.

Translating Climate Science for Natural Resource Management.11

New information from climate sciences, including paleoecology, brings a new

paradigm about natural vegetation dynamics and informs our ability to develop

mitigation and adaptation strategies in light of future climate variability and potential

change. Most of this has been inaccessible to natural resource managers.Approaches

have been developed to translate scientific conclusions relevant to resource conservation

and management so that resource professionals are be able to use this information in

local and regional planning. One example of this is a rethinking of concepts of

sustainability and restoration targets as well as approaches to future adaptation and

restoration. Rather than restoring historic, “pre-human-disturbance” conditions, many

species may persist better in the future by managing species populations so that they

are realigned with current and anticipated future conditions, as well as through the

provision of resource management options to cope with uncertain and highly variable

futures.

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New Research Products Developed to Better SupportWesternWater

Management Decisionmaking.14 CCSP-supported researchers through the

WesternWater Assessment (WWA) have developed a regularly updated web-based

product, the “IntermountainWest Climate Summary,” available at <wwa.colorado.edu/

products/forecasts_and_outlooks/intermountain_west_climate_summary>.This

product has two main purposes: to provide climate information, in the form of graphics,

current conditions, forecasts, verifications, and focus articles, to stakeholders in the

water community in a format that is easy to read, understand, and access; and to

improve the level of knowledge and understanding of forecasts and climate phenomena

by potential users so thatWWA researchers and operational providers can engage users

in a more productive dialog to better understand their need for climate information

and improve climate services.

In a separate effort, new tree-ring collections have been used to update

reconstructions of Colorado River flows first generated in the 1970s, allowing for a

longer calibration period for the reconstruction models. Multiple modeling approaches

were used to test model sensitivity to differences in reconstruction methodology, and

confirm the robustness of the final reconstructions.The reconstruction for the Lees

Ferry gauge, which measures flow for the entire Upper Colorado River, a key source

of water for seven states and parts of Mexico, indicates a higher long-term mean than

seen in previous reconstructions. However, the long-term flow is considerably less

than the baseline used to allocate Colorado River water resources in the 1922

Colorado River Compact.Additionally, more severe and persistent droughts than

those found in the instrumental record have occurred in prior centuries.When the

severe drought of 2000 to 2004 is compared to other 4-year droughts in the past, the

reconstruction indicates that the severity of this drought was exceeded as recently as

the mid-19th century.The recent drought rigorously tested the resiliency of Colorado

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Research conducted by the NOAA- and USDA-supported Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) has found that in some cases more than

merely publishing climate forecasts is required if farmers and other decisionmakers are to use that information effectively. It is important for

decisionmakers to have alternative response options. Crop simulation models, developed and tested during more than 30 years of research,

allow the testing of both the effects of climate variability and potential crop management practices that can help reduce risks of crop or

economic losses to extreme climate events. Using crop models and climate forecasts, the SECC released AgClimate, a prototype web-based

decision-support system designed to help reduce the risks to agriculture that arise from climate variability (see <agClimate.org>)]. In

addition to background information on climate and its role in agricultural systems, AgClimate includes a climate risk tool that can help users

understand how the El Niño Southern Oscillation phase affects the temperatures and rainfall of their county; crop risk tools for peanut,

tomato, and potato that can help farmers understand how climate affects these crops in their county and possible mitigation strategies for

extreme climate events; a wildfire risk tool for foresters; and quarterly regional outlooks for climate and the application of climate forecasts

to specific crops, which are developed and disseminated in cooperation with commodity extension specialists from the three states.

Refer to chapter references 1,2,4,5,6 for more detail.

AGCLIMATE: A PROTOTYPE DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEM

FOR USING CLIMATE INFORMATIONTO REDUCE RISKS IN AGRICULTURE
River Basin water-supply systems,and water managers are now more closely considering

how this paleoclimatic information maybe be applied to drought planning and water

resources management.

Famine EarlyWarning System Network. CCSP supports the innovative application

of science to alleviate risks related to existing climate variability or the potential for

climate change through the Famine EarlyWarning System Network (FEWS NET; see

<www.fews.net>). FEWS NET provides decisionmakers with timely information to

respond effectively to drought and food insecurity by analyzing remote-sensing data

and ground-based meteorological, crop, and rangeland observations to identify early

indications of potential famine.Through its programs, FEWS NET also supports

capacity building in the developing world for climate forecasting and early warning

network development. FEWS NET operates in 20 countries in Africa, three countries

in Central America, and in Haiti and Afghanistan. In 2005, in addition to providing

warnings of acute and emerging food crises, FEWS NET also provided analyses of

long-term climate trends for decision support related to potential climate change

impacts. For example, FEWS NET recently produced a special report detailing how

warming in the Indian Ocean and changes in the monsoonal circulation pattern could

reduce rainfall in Ethiopia.This information will allow development agencies and

regional and local institutions to direct appropriate resources and support toward

strengthening the adaptive capacity of affected food production systems.

Highlights of Plans for FY 2007

In FY 2007, CCSP-participating agencies will sponsor research to develop decisionsupport resources for adaptive management and planning for responding to climate

variability and change, and develop collaborations to apply these research-based

resources in operational settings. Selected examples follow.

Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnership. CCSP

plans to launch a focused analysis of the social and economic impacts of drought.The

work includes an analysis of the use of information about near-term climate variability

and longer term climate trends to aid decisionmakers coping with drought.This effort

is congruous with theWestern Governors’Association’s recommendation for a

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS); the strategic plan for

NIDIS spells out the need for social and economic impacts research and the need for

improved climate information. Research will focus on the development of methods,

models, and mechanisms for evaluating the social and economic ramifications of

drought and the policymaking and decisionmaking processes in the face of drought.

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Potential climate information includes paleoclimatic and observed records of climate

and its impacts, predictions based on seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, recent

trends, and future projections of decadal variability and climate change. Social and

economic impacts analyses will consider historical perspectives and near-term trends

(e.g., projections of water conflicts, water demand, population changes, land-use

shifts from rural to urban).Through this initiative, cutting-edge research on climate

variability and change will be combined with in-depth analyses of the decisions made

by the public and private sectors regarding drought.This effort will be conducted

primarily through universities with strong partnerships among Federal and State

agencies in drought-affected regions.

This activity will address Questions 9.2 and 9.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and support Decision Support Objectives 2.1 and 2.2.

Adaptive Strategies forTransportation.The program is conducting various studies

on adaptive management strategies for transportation to respond to climate change.

One is a study of the effects of sea-level rise on national transportation infrastructure

in order to identify specific infrastructure at risk.A series of studies, in cooperation

with theTransportation Research Board of the National Academies, will focus on a

reexamination of the role of design standards for transportation infrastructure in light

of potential impacts from climate change, operational responses to potential climate

change impacts, approaches to decisionmaking under uncertainty, and a case study of

the transportation sector’s response to and recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and

Rita.These studies will be completed by early 2007.

This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, support Decision Support

Objectives 1.1, 2.1,and 3.1,and relate to Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7.

Famine EarlyWarning System Network (FEWS NET). In 2007, FEWS NET

(see <www.fews.net> and description above) plans to further analyze long-term

climate trends in the Horn of Africa, building on their work in Ethiopia. Similar

studies will be conducted in Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda.These studies will detail the

relationship between temperature changes in the Indian Ocean and terrestrial

temperature and precipitation changes across the Horn of Africa, and will analyze

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
changes in the supply and demand for water based on changes in the precipitation

regime of the region. In 2007, FEWS NET also plans to expand its network to

Nigeria, conducting drought and food security analyses for that country and providing

early warning of potential famine.

This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and support Decision Support Objective 2.2.

Transition of Research to Applications.The NOAA ClimateTransition Program

(NCTP) supports proposals for the transition of experimentally mature climate tools,

methods, and processes from research to sustained operational delivery of useful climate

information, products, and services to local, regional, national, and international

decisionmakers and policymakers. NCTP seeks both to support implementation of

these tools and to learn how better to accomplish transition technologies to support

decisionmaking needs. NCTP supports well-defined partnerships between

researchers, operations staff, decisionmakers, prototype developers, and extension,

outreach, or education elements. In FY 2005, NCTP provided support for four projects

(<www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo_pa/cpo_pa_index.jsp&pa=nctp&sub=3>).

This activity will address Questions 9.2 and 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and support Decision Support Objective 2.2.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES GOAL 3:

METHODS TO SUPPORT CLIMATE POLICYMAKING

Climate is a primary or significant factor in a range of policy considerations including

options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, long-term ecosystem management,

infrastructure planning in the public and private sectors, and science and technology

research. CCSP, in collaboration with CCTP, is providing useful information related to

these issues. For example, CCSP’s carbon cycle research is exploring the permanence

of various options for sequestering carbon.The program’s ecosystem research is

exploring the potential impacts of climate change on managed ecosystems and is

assessing the potential efficacy and implications of options for managing ecosystems in

the face of climate change.The program’s water cycle research is examining ongoing

changes in water availability in the western United States and options for coping with

potential future changes in supply and demand.These and other policy-relevant

research areas, many of which are discussed in earlier chapters, are part of CCSP’s

efforts to develop information useful for policymaking.

CCSP also supports the development of integrated modeling frameworks that are

useful for exploring many dimensions of climate and global change. Integrated analysis

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of climate change is essential for bringing together research from many contributing

disciplines and applying it to gain comparative insight into policy-related questions.

Full integration of information including research on human activities, greenhouse

gases and aerosol emissions, land-use and land-cover change, cycling of carbon and

other nutrients, climatic responses, and impacts on people, the economy, and

resources is necessary for analysis of many important questions about the potential

economic and environmental implications of changing greenhouse gas concentrations

and various technology portfolios. Development and use of techniques for scenario and

comparative analysis are useful for exploring the implications of different hypothetical

policies for curbing emissions growth or encouraging adaptation.Answers from

integrated analysis can only reflect the existing state-of-knowledge in component

studies, but it is important to develop frameworks and resources for integration,

exercise them, and learn from analysis of the results. CCSP is encouraging innovation

and development of approaches to integrated analysis.

An integrated assessment of climate change analyzes the human (including economic),

physical, and biological aspects of climate change, from the forces that give rise to

greenhouse gas emissions or land-cover/land-use change (such as economic activity,

demographic change, and technological advance), through emissions, to impacts (such

as changes in unmanaged ecosystems, sea-level rise, and altered growing conditions

for crops).The primary emphasis in an integrated assessment is to represent all three

aspects in such a way that the costs and benefits of climate change can be evaluated.

Integrated assessments are commonly based on scenarios simulated using a computer

model. Integrated assessment models are used to evaluate, for example, specific climate

change policy options, including those for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Highlights of Recent Activities and Research

Determinants of ResidentialWater Consumption.3 Decision Center for a

Desert City, a Decision Making Under Uncertainty Center supported by NSF, has

been studying water consumption. Municipal water records at the census tract level

were obtained from the City of Phoenix and related to information from other

sources about lot size, the presence of pools, household size, and landscaping style.

Least-squares regression was used to identify the determinants of single-family

residential water use in Phoenix in 2000 and geographically weighted regression to

determine whether the behavior of nearby areas affects local water demand. Results

substantiate the significance of household characteristics (size), urban design features

(lot size and pools), and landscaping practices (mesic vegetation) on residential water

demand and point to a strong spatial bias in water consumption. Households tend to

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
use water at a level comparable to their neighbors, irrespective of their demographic

and urban design features.Thus, planning decisions may have different effects in

different parts of the city. Model parameters will be used to estimate demand under

different urban-growth and planning scenarios.The results of this study, in conjunction

with analyses of climate variability and change, are being used to assess the relationships

between climate and water consumption in an arid metropolitan region.

Comparing the Potential Effect of Cap-and-Trade Policies on Sectors with

ExistingTax Regimes in the United States and the European Union.12 One

of CCSP’s decision-support approaches is to conduct “If..., then...” analyses of climate

change response options. Recent research has included an explicit representation of

existing tax regimes in a quantitative analysis of potential strategies for reducing

greenhouse gas emissions.The household transportation sector is among the more

rapidly growing energy users, and fuel inputs are often taxed at much higher rates in

transportation than in other areas of the economy. In addition, policies directed

toward energy use and environmental control generally have given special treatment

to the transportation sector (particularly the automobile).The European Union, for

example, excludes the transportation sector from the 2005-2007 trial period of its

emissions trading system. In the absence of pre-existing tax distortions, as is the case

in the United States, exemption of transportation sectors would imply increased

carbon tax rates for other sectors and higher costs for the economy as a whole. For

the European Union, on the other hand, the exemption of the already highly taxed

transport sector may actually decrease the estimated cost of meeting a carbon

constraint, even when the capped sectors are required to cut further to make up for

the sector exemptions.

Highlights of Plans for FY 2007

Comparison of Policy Assessments with DifferentTypes of Economic

Models.A comparison of the effectiveness of economic instruments, such as the

costs of national cap-and-trade measures predicted by integrated assessment models,

often reveals significant differences among models. One source of divergence is the

way models represent expectations for future developments—that is, whether a

model is forward-looking (current decisions are based on future as well as current

prices) or recursive dynamic (each time period is analyzed independently). Forwardlooking models sometimes show higher costs during initial control periods, apparently

because solutions result in larger reductions in consumption early in anticipation of a

future tightening of the constraint. Resolution of these differences in results is difficult

because these varying models, developed by different groups, have substantial differences

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
in structure, assumptions, and the way expectations are modeled.The Massachusetts

Institute ofTechnology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change will

complete development of a multi-sector, multi-region economic model (specifically, a

computational general equilibrium model) that can be run in either forward-looking

or recursive-dynamic mode. Carefully controlled simulations with this model will

provide a basis for explaining the origin of the differences among model types and

explain some of the existing variation in predicted costs.

This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, support Decision Support

Objectives 2.1 and 3.1,and relate to Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1.

Emissions Analysis of FreightTransport Comparing Land- andWater-Side

Short-Sea Routes: Development and Demonstration of a Decision

ModelingTool.The goal of this study is to develop a methodology and tools to

compare greenhouse gas and other emissions from land- and water-side freight

transport alternatives. Current efforts to investigate and promote the use of short-sea

shipping alternatives (inland and coastal waterways used to move commercial freight

from major domestic ports closer to final destinations) will benefit from additional

information that compares emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants among

freight modes.The tools and methodology that come out of this study will contribute

to developing best practices for greenhouse gas mitigation in the multi-modal freight

sector. Completion is expected in early 2007.

This activity will address Questions 9.1 and 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, support Decision

Support Objectives 2.1, 2.2,and 3.2,and relate to Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7.

Transportation-Focused Studies. Outside of Synthesis andAssessment Product 4.7,

DOT is conducting the following two studies to support informed discussion of the

relationships between transportation and climate change. In light of President Bush’s

goal for an 18% reduction in greenhouse gas intensity by 2012, a study will be

completed in 2006 aimed at quantifying transportation’s current contributions to

overall U.S. greenhouse gas intensity. In addition, in FY 2007, a comparative analysis of

emissions from aviation, automobile, marine, and diesel transport will be undertaken.

This study will compare emissions data sets from aviation, heavy-duty diesel,

automobile, and marine vehicles and analyze the similarities and differences across the

transportation modes.The final report will determine how the analyzed data can be

added to existing emissions inventories and used in quantifying contributions to local

and regional air quality and climate change.

This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, support Decision Support

Objective 1.1,and relate to Synthesis and Assessment Products 2.1 and 4.7.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
177

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) Cabrera,V.E., N.E. Breuer, and P.E. Hildebrand, 2005:The dynamic north-Florida dairy farm

model: a user-friendly computerized tool for increasing profits while minimizing environmental

impacts. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 49, 286-308.

2) Cabrera,V.E., P.E. Hildebrand, J.W. Jones, D. Letson, and A. deVries, 2006:An integrated

North Florida dairy farm model to reduce environmental impacts under seasonal climate variability.

Agriculture, Ecosystems,and Environment, 113, 82-97.

3) DCDC, 2006: Decision Center for a Desert City 2005-2006 Annual Progress Report. 32 pp.Available at

<dcdc.asu.edu/reports/2006Report.pdf>.

4) Fraisse, C.W., N. Breuer, D. Zierden, J.G. Bellow, J. Paz,V. Cabrera,A. Garcia y Garcia, K. Ingram,

U. Hatch, G. Hoogenboom, J.W. Jones, and J. O’Brien, 2006:AgClimate:A climate forecast

information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA. Computers and

Electronics in Agriculture, 53, pp. 13-27.

5) Guerra, L.C., G. Hoogenboom, J.E. Hook, D.L.Thomas,V.K. Boken, and K.A. Harrison, 2005:

Evaluation of on-farm irrigation applications using the simulation model EPIC. Irrigation Science,

23, 171-181.

6) Jacobs, J.M., S.R. Satti, M.D. Dukes, and J.W. Jones, 2006: Climate variability and impacts on

irrigation water demand: Research and application in Northeast Florida. In: ClimateVariations,

Climate Change,andWater Resources Engineering [Garbrecht, J.D. andT.C. Piechota (eds.)].American

Society of Civil Engineers, Reston,VA, USA, pp. 143-155.

7) Joyce, L.A. and M. Laskowski, 2006: Natural resource managers respond to climate change:A

look at actions, challenges, and trends. In: Global Change in Mountain Regions [M. F. Price (ed)].

Sapiens Publishing, Duncow, UK, pp. 343.

8) Kaupp,V., C. Hutchinson, S. Drake,T. Haithcoat,W. van Leeuwen,V. Likholetov, D.Tralli,

R. McKellip, and B. Doorn, 2005: Benchmarking the USDA Production Estimates and Crop Assessment

DSS Assimilation. USDA,Washington, DC, USA, 197 pp.

9) Kinney, P.L., J.E. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, C. Hogrefe,W. Solecki, K. Knowlton, C. Small,

B. Lynn, K. Civerolo, J.-Y. Ku, R. Goldberg, and C. Oliveri, 2006:Assessing potential public

health impacts of changing climate and land use:The NewYork Climate and Health Project. In:

Climate Change andVariability: Consequences and Responses [Ruth, M., K. Donaghy, and P. Kirshen

(eds.)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Washington, DC, USA (in press).

10) MacEachren,A.M.,W. Pike, C.Yu, I. Brewer, M. Gahegan, S.D.Weaver, and B.Yarnal, 2006:

Building a geocollaboratory: Supporting Human–Environment Regional Observatory (HERO)

collaborative science activities. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 30, 201-225.

11) Millar, C.I. and L.B. Brubaker, 2006: Climate change and paleoecology: New contexts for

restoration ecology. In: Foundations of Restoration Ecology:The Science and Practice of Ecological

Restoration [Palmer, M., D. Falk, and J. Zedler (eds.)]. Island Press,Washington, DC, USA,

pp. 315-340.

12) Paltsev, S., H. Jacoby, J. Reilly, L.Viguier, and M. Babiker, 2005:Transport and climate policy

modeling in the transport sector:The role of existing fuel taxes in climate policy. In: Energy and

Environment, 25th AnniversaryVolume of the Group for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD),Volume 3

[R. Loulou, J.-P.Waaub, and G. Zaccour (eds.)]. Springer-Verlag, NewYork, NewYork, USA,

pp. 211-238.

13) Pike,W., B.Yarnal,A. MacEachren, M. Gahegan, and C.Yu, 2005: Retooling collaboration:A

vision for environmental change research. Environment, 47(2), 8-21.

14) Woodhouse, C.A., S.T. Gray, and D.M. Meko, 2006: Updated streamflow reconstructions for

the Upper Colorado River basin. Water Resources Research, 42,W05415, doi:

10.1029/2005WR004455.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER REFERENCES
8 Observing and Monitoring

the Climate System

The CCSP Strategic Plan identifies two overarching questions for “Observing and

Monitoring the Climate System” (Chapter 12) and “Data Management and

Information” (Chapter 13):

• How can we provide active stewardship for an observation system that will document

the evolving state of the climate system, allow for improved understanding of its

changes, and contribute to improved predictive capability for society?

• How can we provide seamless, platform-independent, timely, and open access to

integrated data, products, information, and tools with sufficient accuracy and

precision to address climate and associated global changes?

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

Goal 12.1: Design, develop, deploy, and integrate

observation components into a comprehensive system.

Goal 12.2:Accelerate the development and deployment of

observing and monitoring elements needed for decision

support.

Goal 12.3: Provide stewardship of the observing system.

Goal 12.4: Integrate modeling activities with the observing

system.

Goal 12.5: Foster international cooperation to develop a

complete global observing system.

Goal 12.6: Manage the observing system with an effective

interagency structure.

Data Management and Information

Goal 13.1: Collect and manage data in multiple locations.

Goal 13.2: Enable users to discover and access data and

information via the Internet.

Goal 13.3: Develop integrated information data products for scientists and

decisionmakers.

Goal 13.4: Preserve data and information.

See Chapters 12 and 13 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these goals.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
The United States is contributing to the development and operation of several global

observing systems that collectively attempt to combine data streams from both

research and operational observing platforms to provide a comprehensive measure

of climate system variability and climate change processes.These systems provide a

baseline Earth-observing system and include NASA, NOAA, and USGS Earth-observing

satellites and extensive in situ observational capabilities. CCSP also supports several

ground-based measurement activities that provide the data used in studies of the

various climate processes necessary for better understanding of climate change. U.S.

observational and monitoring activities contribute significantly to several international

observing systems including the Global Climate Observing System principally sponsored

by theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO); the Global Ocean Observing

System sponsored by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural

Organization’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); and the Global

Terrestrial Observing System sponsored by the United Nations Food and Agriculture

Organization.The latter two have climate-related elements being developed jointly

with the Global Climate Observing System.

The United States is also playing an important role in the Global Earth Observation

System of Systems (GEOSS), which is an international framework for coordinating

and sustaining the aforementioned (and other) systems. Information from GEOSS is

expected to revolutionize understanding of the Earth and how Earth observations may

benefit society.A 10-year implementation plan for GEOSS was adopted in February 2005

by nearly 60 countries, including the United States (see <earthobservations.org> for

a copy of this plan, as well as other information on GEOSS).The U.S. Group on Earth

Observations (USGEO) has drafted a strategic plan for integrated Earth observations,

which contributes directly to GEOSS. CCSP coordinates USGEO’s climate and global

change-related activities. USGEO is focusing on the following areas, many of which

are directly or indirectly related to CCSP:

understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating,

and adapting to climate variability and change;

weather forecasting; reducing loss of life and

property from disasters; protecting and

monitoring ocean resources; supporting

sustainable agriculture and combating land

degradation; understanding the effect of

environmental factors on human health and

well-being; developing the capacity to make

ecological forecasts; protecting and monitoring

water resources; and monitoring and managing

energy resources.

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One of the priorities for observations and monitoring in FY 2007 is to further define

the U.S. role in GEOSS, including the development of an information management

system to help integrate the system’s distributed resources.Another priority is to

enhance observational capabilities in polar regions, both through remote-sensing and

in situ approaches.These capabilities and approaches will converge on the

International PolarYear (IPY) beginning in 2007, discussed briefly later in this chapter.

Observations of aerosols and approaches outlined in the Atmospheric Composition

chapter of this report are also a priority. Improving understanding of the carbon cycle,

which CCSP has identified as a near-term priority, will be facilitated by enhanced

observations in FY 2007 and beyond.A longer list of some of the planned observational

and monitoring activities is provided later in this chapter. Data management and

distribution activities, including those mentioned in the box on “Systems for Data

Management and Distribution,” will play a key role in making accessible the information

necessary to fulfill CCSP’s mission to provide the “Nation and the global community

with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in

the climate and related environmental systems.”

Many measurement and monitoring technologies and derived data systems benefit

from the ongoing research and development under the aegis of CCSP, and from other

Earth observation activities that are currently underway.All such measurement and

monitoring systems constitute an important component of and complement to the

measurement and monitoring research and development portfolio of CCTP. For

additional information on CCTP measurement and monitoring research and

development activities, see <www.climatetechnology.gov>.

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) integrates global networks placed

strategically across the atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial domains, permitting

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better understanding of climate variability and change. In recent years, GCOS has

encouraged, coordinated, and facilitated a number of positive actions on international,

regional, and bilateral levels that have led to success in improving climate observations

worldwide.A number of workshops have been held in developing nations, highlighting

the importance of GCOS observations.These workshops have resulted in a series of

regional action plans that will help guide observational improvements in these

regions. Spearheaded by the United States, a GCOS Cooperation Mechanism has been

established to leverage the resources of developed nations to ensure that dormant

GCOS network stations begin to be retrofitted.This will facilitate the collection of

valuable surface and upper-air data used in climate studies (see, e.g., CCSP Synthesis

and Assessment Product 1.1, which is briefly discussed in the ClimateVariability and

Change chapter).

The United States is making key ocean observations that are important to both science

and society.They include sea-level observations, measured using tide gauge stations

and satellite observations; ocean carbon sources and sinks; ocean storage and global

transport of heat and freshwater; and exchange of heat and freshwater between the

ocean and atmosphere.To collect data on these variables, it is necessary to enhance the

in situ and satellite components of the global ocean observing system, including an

array of sensors situated across the global oceans.The number of instruments being

deployed in the oceanic observing networks is increasing steadily.

The United States has a three-tiered approach to in situ land-surface climate observations.

In the first tier, a few sites, such as the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)

Program sites, are heavily instrumented, providing a vast array of frequent high-quality

observations of virtually all key variables measurable from the surface.ARM operates

sites in three primary locations (southern Great Plains, tropical western Pacific, and

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North Slope of Alaska) identified as representing the range of climate conditions

important for studying the effects of clouds on global climate change. In addition, the

ARM Mobile Facility can perform atmospheric measurements similar to those at the

fixed ARM sites for periods up to a year anywhere in the world. Data are collected

continuously and are made available in near-real-time. Using these data, scientists are

studying the effects and interactions of sunlight, radiant energy, and clouds to

understand their impact on temperature, weather, and climate.

The second tier, known as the Climate Reference Network (CRN), will include more

than 100 sites that make long-term, homogeneous observations of temperature and

precipitation (and a few other variables) that can be coupled to long-term historical

observations for the detection and attribution of present and future climate change.The

USCRN program will provide the United States with a climate-monitoring network that

meets national commitments to monitor and document climate change.The network

will provide adequate spatial coverage to monitor annual and decadal-to-centennial

temperature and precipitation trends at the national scale for the United States.The

goal is to establish a network that 50 years from now will answer the question:

How has the climate of the United States changed over the past 50 years?To date,

73 operational sites in the contiguous United States (60% of the network) have

been deployed. Implementation of plans for an eventual network of 42 CRN sites

in Alaska will begin in 2007. In addition, the CRN configuration will be used on a

more global level to aid in establishing reference GCOS Surface Network (GSN)

sites.Three such prototype GSN/CRN sites have been established in three

locations in the Pacific (Hawaii and American Samoa). Observations that will be

available from the USCRN are relevant to CCSP but not included in the budget

cross-cut.

The third tier, which provides greater spatial coverage than the CRN, is composed of

more than 1,000 stations in the existing Historical Climatology Network, selected

based on homogeneity and quality standards.This tiered approach provides the spatial

coverage necessary to detect regional climate variability and change, as well as the

quality controls necessary to ensure that the observations are as bias-free as possible.

U.S. contributions to GCOS also include ecosystem, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and

atmospheric composition measurements.

The top three priorities of CCSP relate to aerosols, the carbon budget, and polar

climate/feedback.The ObservationsWorking Group’s contributions to those

priorities include:

• Creation of a unified picture of global aerosol, cloud, CO2, and ozone distributions

from the A-train satellite constellation and related Earth-observing systems

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• Identification of black carbon aerosol and other aerosol impacts on the water cycle,

as measured by the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), the Coordinated

Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP), and other in situ observations

• Determination of sea-ice concentrations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning

Radiometer—EOS (AMSR-E), the Moderate-Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR)

• Improvement of the accuracy of measurement systems—for example, reduced

uncertainties in water vapor concentrations from 25% to less than 3%.

Additionally, important contributions to GCOS, which constitutes the formal climate

component of GEOSS, have progressed, specifically:

• 56% completion of the initial Ocean Observing System for Climate

• 100% completion of the global drifting buoy array

• Extension of the tropical moored buoy network into the Indian Ocean

• Establishment of three GCOS regionalTechnical Support Centers for the Pacific

Islands, East and South Africa, and the Caribbean/Central America

• 70% reduction in the number of “silent” GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN) sites

(i.e., those not providing data) in developing nations (from 20 to 6)

• Global rainfall and hurricane structure observations from more than 8 years of the

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which has led to improved tropical

cyclone forecasts.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT ACTIVITIES

AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS

The following are selected highlights of observation and monitoring activities supported

by CCSP-participating agencies.The principal focus of this chapter is on describing

progress in implementing the observations that contribute to the CCSP mission.As a

result, the chapter touches on some observing systems that are crucial to CCSP but

are not included within the CCSP budget because they primarily serve other purposes.

Observations and Monitoring

Initial Ocean Observing System for Climate 56% Completed.The NOAA

Office of Climate Observation cooperates with 66 nations in implementing the

internationally vetted design of an initial ocean observing system for climate,

articulated in theWMO/IOC/United Nations Environment Programme plan for

GCOS. Deployment of the observing system, planned for completion in 2012, is

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proceeding on schedule, with the United States currently supporting over 50% of the

ocean-based observing platforms.

Global Drifting Buoy Array 100% Completed. In an historic milestone for

international cooperation, the global drifting buoy array achieved its design goal of

1,250 data buoys in sustained service, thus becoming the first component of the

Global Ocean Observing System and of GEOSS to be fully implemented.The United

States currently maintains 1,000 of the buoys in the array.These buoys provide the

operational instrumental data sets for describing the evolution of ocean surface

circulation and sea surface temperature, which are used for testing climate models and

enhancing long-range weather and seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions.

Tropical Moored Buoy Network Extended into the Indian Ocean.Working

in close collaboration with Japan and India, the first six of a series of moored buoys

have been deployed in the Indian Ocean for measurement of a comprehensive suite of

ocean-atmosphere climate variables.This westward extension of the equatorial Pacific

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean/TriangleTrans-Ocean array, whose long-term data have

revolutionized understanding of the evolution of El Niño, is necessary to understand

changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, which have recently been shown to

be a cause of regional climate variability and change (including prolonged drought in

the mid-latitudes, including the United States).

Polar Region Observations.1 Polar systems may be especially sensitive to climate

change and might provide early indications of climate change.They also interact with

climate variability and change through several important feedback processes.

Monitoring polar climate and understanding its feedbacks are key priorities described

in the CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP supports the creation of systematic data sets for

parameters such as sea-ice thickness, extent, and concentration; land-ice and snowcover mass balance; and surface temperature.The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

highlighted the impacts of changes in these and other variables. NSF and NOAA are

jointly implementing an interagency activity entitled the Study of Environmental

Arctic Change (SEARCH) to better understand climate change as identified in the

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (see <www.arcus.org/search>).

Clues toVariability in Arctic Minimum Sea-Ice Extent.7 Perennial sea ice is a

primary indicator of Arctic climate change. From 1979 to 2003, it decreased in extent

by about 17%.Analysis of new satellite-derived fields of winds, radiative forcing, and

advected heat reveals distinct regional differences in the relative roles of these

parameters in explaining variability in the northernmost ice-edge position. In all six

peripheral seas studied, downwelling long-wave radiation flux anomalies explain the

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most variability—approximately 40%—while northward wind anomalies are important

in areas north of Siberia, particularly earlier in the melt season.Anomalies in insolation

are negatively correlated with perennial ice retreat in all regions, suggesting that the

effect of solar flux anomalies is overwhelmed by the long-wave influence on ice edge

position.

ICESat. Significant contributions are being

made to CCSP’s polar observations by

NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation

Satellite (ICESat), launched in 2003 (see

<icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov>). ICESat measures

surface elevations of ice and land, vertical

distributions of clouds and aerosols, vegetation

canopy heights, and other features with

unprecedented accuracy and sensitivity.The

primary purpose of ICESat has been to

acquire time series of ice-sheet elevation

changes for determination of the present-day

mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and

polar climate, and improvement of estimates

of the present and future contributions to global sea-level rise. ICESat has achieved

remarkable successes with a number of first-of-their-kind observations, including:

• The most accurate elevation maps to date of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

• Detection of change in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

• Demonstrated ability to characterize detailed topographic features of ice sheets, ice

shelves, and ice streams

• Capability of detecting ice-sheet elevation changes as small as centimeters per year

• Pioneering sea-ice thickness mapping (distributions and means)

• Global mapping of

cloud heights and

aerosols with

unprecedented

sensitivity and

detail

• Sensing of vegetation

canopy heights and

density

• Precision mapping of

land elevations.

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MODIS.The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument

has been operating successfully on NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS)Terra

mission for over 6 years and on the Aqua mission for over 4 years.The MODIS

instruments have provided daily global observations of land, ocean, and atmospheric

features with unprecedented detail, due to the 250- to 1,000-m spatial resolution

coupled with multi-spectral capability in 36 carefully selected bands extending from

the visible to the thermal infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum.

In the case of atmospheric features, MODIS has produced advanced, detailed

observations of the global and regional extent of aerosols from natural and anthropogenic

activity. MODIS not only observes more accurately the extent of cloudiness, including

that associated with thin, wispy cirrus, that profoundly affects Earth’s radiation balance,

but also cloud properties such as cloud phase (water or ice), optical depth (i.e., cloud

thickness), and effective droplet radius. MODIS is also providing more detailed

observations of land features such as surface reflectance (albedo), surface temperature,

snow and ice cover, and the variability of vegetation type and vigor associated with

seasonal and climatic (e.g., above and below average moisture) variability.The capability

of MODIS to classify vegetation types and the photosynthetic activity of vegetation

over the land as well as in the surface waters of the world’s oceans (i.e., phytoplankton)

is leading to more accurate evaluation of spatial and seasonal changes in the global net

productivity of Earth’s biosphere. MODIS’ capability for observing global processes

and trends is leading to better understanding of natural and anthropogenic effects on

the Earth-atmosphere system, and to better performance of general circulation models

(GCMs).An example of the latter is the use of atmospheric winds derived from

MODIS observations over the polar regions of the globe.These observations have

been shown to improve the global predictive skill of several GCMs, both in the polar

regions that are undergoing rapid change,

and in the mid-latitudes.

More than 100 “Direct-Broadcast” stations

are now operating across the globe, enabling

MODIS data to be obtained in near-real-time

from the Aqua andTerra missions.About 800

user agencies or entities are now routinely

using MODIS observations for regional

applications or studies, including, for

example, assessing the clarity of lakes (e.g.,

inWisconsin and Minnesota), using

observations of fire occurrence to strategically

allocate fire-fighting resources (e.g., the U.S.

Forest Service), and monitoring the extent of

pollution (e.g., in China).

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QuikSCAT.2,6The SeaWinds instrument aboard the Quick Scatterometer

(QuikSCAT) satellite has measured the speed and direction of wind over the surface of

the oceans since 1999.Although launched as an experimental instrument, it has been

assimilated pre-operationally into atmospheric weather prediction models (NOAA’s

National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the European Centre for MediumRangeWeather Forecasts, and others) for the past 2 years. It is providing new insights

on air-sea exchanges. Furthermore, the underlying radar backscatter data have been

applied to climate change research concerning terrestrial high latitudes through studies

of ice-layer formation.

SolarVariability: SORCE.The Sun is the Earth’s primary energy source and external

driver of climate variability.The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)

satellite, launched in 2003, is equipped with four instruments that measure variations

in solar radiation much more accurately than previous instruments. SORCE is now

making the first contiguous observations of solar variability across the full solar

spectrum, from the far ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths. In June 2004,

SORCE measured small changes in solar luminosity caused by the transit ofVenus,

demonstrating unprecedented precision. On 4 November 2004, SORCE documented

the largest solar X-ray flare ever recorded and measured associated changes in total

solar irradiance. SORCE’s operational life is expected to extend across the upcoming

2006-2007 solar minimum, a crucial period for estimating any long-term trend, such

as that indicated by indirect measurements of past solar forcing. SORCE is expected

to overlap with the Glory mission that will carry forward the total solar irradiance

record after 2008, as discussed below.The continued measurements previously

planned by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

(NPOESS) through theTotal Solar Irradiance Sensor (including aTotal Solar Irradiance

Monitor and Spectral Irradiance Monitor) were removed from the NPOESS program

during the Nunn-McCurdy recertification process completed in June 2006.Agencies

are currently assessing the impacts of this decision for solar irradiance monitoring.

Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and

Climate.The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and

Climate (COSMIC) relies on radio occultation of signals from the Global Positioning

System satellites. COSMIC satellites will take 2,500 vertical profile measurements

every 24 hours in a nearly uniform distribution around the globe, filling in current

data gaps over vast stretches of the oceans.The data’s high vertical resolution will

complement the high horizontal resolution of other conventional weather satellite

measurements.This will be the first time that the technique of radio occultation will

be used on a large scale in real-time to provide continuous monitoring of worldwide

atmospheric conditions. COSMIC builds on a series of previous research-oriented

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satellites, which were used to develop the measurement technique and establish the

usefulness of the data in operational forecast systems.The remarkable stability,

consistency, and accuracy of the measurements should be a boon to scientists quantifying

long-term climate change trends. COSMIC was successfully launched on 14 April 2006,

and its constellation of six small satellites will be transmitting atmospheric data to

Earth for the next 5 or more years.

ARM Mobile Facility.The primary goal of the ARM Program is to improve the

treatment of cloud and radiation physics in global climate models in order to improve

the climate simulation capabilities of these models.These efforts have been enhanced

by the addition of the ARM mobile facility (AMF) to study cloud and radiation

processes in multiple climatic regimes.AMF can be deployed to sites around the world

for durations of 6 to 18 months. Data streams produced by AMF will be available to

the atmospheric community for use in testing and improving parameterizations in

global climate models.The first deployment of AMF, in Point Reyes California—a

collaboration between DOE and the DOD Office of Naval Research—made

observations of marine stratus clouds and cloud-aerosol interactions (see

<www.arm.gov/sites/amf.stm>).

Observing Earth’s Mass Distribution Changes from Space.3,4,8The Gravity

Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is a two-spacecraft mission, developed

under a partnership between NASA and the German Aerospace Center.After two

successful years of mission operation, significant multidisciplinary results using GRACE

observations are being reported.The unprecedented accuracy of the measurements

provides the opportunity to observe time variability in the Earth’s gravity field due to

changes in mass distribution. Large variations in mass distribution occur predominantly

over the continents, but smaller and slower signals caused by changes in ocean circulation

and land ice sheets and glaciers are also detectable. One analysis using GRACE data

determined that up to 10 cm (4 in) of groundwater accumulation is associated with

heavy tropical rains, particularly in the Amazon Basin and Southeast Asia.

Major climate events also influence Earth’s shape due to changes in the mass of

water stored in oceans, continents, and the atmosphere. Over the past 3 decades,

geodetic observations using satellite-laser ranging techniques have detected large-scale

changes in the Earth’s oblateness. Researchers found that in the past 28 years, two

large variations in Earth’s oblateness were connected with strong ENSO events.

Longer term changes in Earth’s oblateness are explained by the redistribution of mass

in the Earth’s mantle due to the slow release of stress from the weight of ice on

landmasses during the last glaciation. However, the data sets show that the long-term

post-glacial rebound was interrupted by an anomaly in oblateness during the period

1998 to 2002, although the geophysical cause of this anomaly remains unidentified.

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Data Management and Information

The paragraph that follows and the accompanying text box highlight selected data

management and information activities supported by CCSP-participating agencies.

REASoN Program. Forty Cooperative Agreement projects that are part of NASA’s

Earth Science Research, Education, and Applications Solutions Network (REASoN )

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Cooperative efforts by NASA, NOAA, and other CCSP agencies are moving toward providing an integrated and more easily accessed Earth

information system that will effectively preserve, extend, and distribute information about the evolving state of the Earth.A few examples of

specific agency efforts are given below.Although each activity has a single lead agency, participation involves many CCSP agencies, as well as

State, local, and nongovernmental partners.

These activities address Goals 12.3, 12.6, 13.1, 13.2,and 13.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Earth Observing System Data and Information. NASA’s Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) provides

convenient mechanisms for locating and accessing products of interest either electronically or via orders for data on media. EOSDIS facilitates

collaborative science by providing sets of tools and capabilities such that investigators may provide access to special products (or research

products) from their own computing facilities. EOSDIS has an operational EOS Data Gateway (EDG) that provides access to the data holdings

at all the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and participating data centers from other U.S. and international agencies. Currently,

there are14 EDGs around the world that permit users to access Earth science data archives, browse data holdings, select data products, and

place data orders.

Distributed Active Archive Centers. Eight NASA DAACs, representing a wide range of Earth science disciplines, comprise the data

archival and distribution functions of EOSDIS. DAACs are responsible for processing certain data products from instrument data, archiving

and distributing NASA’s Earth science data, and providing a full range of user support.There are more than 2,100 distinct data products

archived at and distributed from the DAACs.These institutions are custodians of Earth science mission data until the data are moved to longterm archives.They ensure that data will be easily accessible to users. NASA and NOAA have initiated a pilot project to develop a prototype

system for testing approaches for moving MODIS data into long-term NOAA archives.This pilot project is part of the evolution of the

Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) developed by NOAA.Acting in concert with their users, DAACs provide

reliable, robust services to those whose needs may cross traditional discipline boundaries, while continuing to support the particular needs of

their respective disciplines. DAACs are serving a broad and growing user community at an increasing rate.

Global Change Master Directory.The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) is an extensive directory of descriptive and spatial

information about data sets relevant to global change research. GCMD provides a comprehensive resource where a researcher, student, or

interested individual can access sources of Earth science data and related tools and services.At present the GCMD database contains over

17,200 metadata descriptions of data sets from more than 1,200 government agencies, research institutions, archives, and universities

worldwide; updates are made at the rate of 900 descriptions per month. GCMD contains descriptions of data sets covering all disciplines that

produce and use data to help understand our changing planet.Although much research is focused on climate change, GCMD includes metadata

from disciplines including atmospheric science, oceanography, ecology, geology, hydrology, and human dimensions of climate change.This

interdisciplinary approach is aimed at researchers exploring the interconnections and interrelations of multidisciplinary global change variables

(e.g., how climate change may affect human health). GCMD has made it easier for such data users to locate the information they desire.A

portal has been created in support of GEOSS.The professional relationship between the system developers and the scientists has yielded an

environment where the developers respond to the needs of potential users (see <gcmd.nasa.gov>).

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. DOE’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) provides comprehensive,

long-term data management support, analysis, and information services to DOE’s climate change research programs, the global climate

research community, and the general public.The CDIAC data collection is designed to answer questions pertinent to both the present-day

carbon budget and temporal changes in carbon sources and sinks.The data sets are designed to provide quantitative estimates of anthropogenic

CO2 emission rates, atmospheric concentration levels, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean-atmosphere fluxes, and oceanic concentrations and

inventories. CDIAC provides unrestricted, free distribution of its data products.

SYSTEMS FOR DATA MANAGEMENT AND DISTRIBUTION
have completed their first year.The REASoN projects are part of NASA’s strategy to

work with its partners to improve its existing data systems, guide the development

and management of future data systems, and focus performance outcomes to further

Earth science research objectives. In order to achieve these goals, the REASoN

projects are organized to engage the science community and peer review process in

the development of higher level science products; to use these products to advance

Earth system research; to develop and demonstrate new technologies for data

management and distribution; and to contribute to interagency efforts to improve the

maintenance and accessibility of data and information systems.A list of ongoing

activities under this program is available at <research.hq.nasa.gov/code_y/nra/

current/CAN-02-OES-01/winners.html>.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2007

CCSP will support the development and implementation of integrated systems for

observations and monitoring of climate and global change, and associated data

management and information systems. Selected key planned activities for FY 2007 and

beyond follow.

Polar Region Observations: International PolarYear (IPY). Polar climate

observations will continue to be a CCSP focus as preparations are made for IPY,

which will begin in March 2007. IPY coincides with the 50th anniversary of the

International GeophysicalYear, which in 1957 initiated the systematic observation

of key climate variables, such as atmospheric CO2, and set the stage for the era of

satellite observations. Data from space-based observatories as well as more traditional

surface-observatories will provide high-quality records needed to detect potential

future climate changes in the cryosphere.

The United States plans to increase its efforts on observations of the polar atmosphere,

ice, and ocean, as well as leverage its investments in polar research with international

partners.Working with Canada, NOAA and NSF will deploy an atmospheric observatory

in northeastern Canada to mirror current activities in Barrow,Alaska.Together, these

observatories will provide an improved high-resolution characterization of clouds and

aerosols, and of incoming and outgoing radiation.Two NASA satellites launched on

28 April 2006, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations

(CALIPSO) and Cloudsat, use lidar and radar to provide three-dimensional distributions

of aerosols and layered clouds. Surface field teams from many nations will be supported

by a wealth of satellites contributed for polar research by multiple space agencies.

Calibration and validation field programs utilizing airborne and balloon-borne sensors

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
associated with these satellite missions and other programs will greatly aid in the

characterization of accelerating changes in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Research vessels from various Arctic countries will join the United States in

coordinated measurements at ocean gateways through which waters are exchanged

between the polar and temperate latitudes. Buoys will be deployed to extend the

observations through and beyond the IPY.Additional effort will be made to detect

changes in sea ice through direct measurement of sea-ice properties, and also through

satellite sensors (see, e.g., ICESat description above) whose calibration can be enhanced

by the availability of an increased set of buoy data. Changes in the temperature and

salinity structure of the ocean beneath sea ice could be a critical indicator of changes

in the climate system, and new efforts will be made to gather such data.The Bering,

Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas off Alaska are home to many valuable living resources,

including fish, marine mammals, and birds, that are affected by ocean currents and the

seasonal progression of sea ice.These areas are warming rapidly and the annual period

of ice cover is diminishing.The biotic response to these physical changes will be studied

through enhanced observations by automated systems and ship-based activities.

In addition to the deployment of an additional 16 CRN stations in the contiguous

United States, operational deployment of the eventual network of 42 Alaskan CRN

stations is scheduled to begin with an initial four stations; this is in addition to a set of

four prototypes that were deployed in FY 2005.

Lasting 24 months, IPY will include two summer field seasons in both hemispheres,

permitting more extensive observations and helping to establish a durable network of

polar observatories supported by numerous polar countries. IPY links to the

Electronic GeophysicalYear are intended to make IPY data sets more accessible for

scientific and policy use (see <www.us-ipy.org> and <www.egy.org>).

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Climate Observing System. FY 2007 will see continued growth in the

deployment of the global ocean observing component of the U.S. Integrated Ocean

Observing System (IOOS), which is the major U.S. contribution to the Global Ocean

Observing System (GOOS), and the climate and ocean components of GEOSS.

Working in close cooperation with international partners, incremental advances will

be made in all ocean observing networks, which will boost the system to 61%

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completion of the initial ocean observing system design, as articulated in the

internationally vetted GCOS implementation plan (GCOS-92). FY 2007 priorities for

advancement of the atmospheric and ocean observing components of GCOS include

the following:

• Reduce the uncertainty in estimates of changes in the carbon inventory of the global

ocean.The immediate plan will be to add autonomous CO2-sampling instrumentation

to the moored arrays and ships of opportunity to analyze seasonal variability and

long-term trends in carbon exchange between the ocean and atmosphere.

• Reduce uncertainties in sea-level change and sea surface temperature.The immediate

plan is to complete the global subset of tide gauge stations, identified as the ocean

reference network, for altimeter calibration and detection of long-term trends.

• Document the ocean’s heat storage and transport to identify where anomalies enter

the ocean, how they move and are transformed, and where they re-emerge to

interact with the atmosphere.The immediate plan is to advance the implementation

of a global network of ocean reference stations to provide validation points for

climate forecast and projection models, monitor key locations in the ocean for

signs of possible abrupt climate change, and enhance data collection from ships of

opportunity, thus completing a subset of high accuracy lines to be frequently

repeated and sampled at high resolution for systematic upper ocean and atmospheric

measurements. In addition, the 2005 hurricane season demonstrated the need for

better understanding and forecasting of hurricane development; accordingly, a subset

of special hurricane drifters (drifting data buoys) will be air-deployed directly in

the path of approaching hurricanes to measure the ocean’s heat energy potential.

• Document changes in the ocean’s contributions to the global water cycle.The

immediate plan is to instrument the global arrays of moored and surface drifting

buoys and ships of opportunity for measuring sea surface salinity, a direct indicator

of the ocean’s evaporation and precipitation.

• Retrofit GUAN sites in developing nations through the provision of expendable

equipment (e.g., radiosondes and balloons), and install new reference GSN sites in

developing nations and unique climate regimes.

• Monitoring the health of the GCOS networks is vital to ensure that possible

problems with data quality are caught and fixed early, so that vital data sets retain

their integrity and utility as input to global assessments of climate as performed by

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

• A number of other associated GCOS activities involve the data quality and

calibration of global data sets of precipitation chemistry, solar radiation, and

regional precipitation networks, as well as support for GCOS-related research

activities such as the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project and basic

support for the international GCOS secretariat.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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ARM Mobile Facility. In FY 2007, the AMF will be deployed to a low-mountain

region in Germany with the objective of improving quantitative precipitation forecasts.

The AMF instruments will strongly support the goal of determining three-dimensional

distributions of atmospheric variables.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Earth System Science Pathfinder Program. NASA’s Earth System Science

Pathfinder (ESSP) program is the primary source of exploratory missions to complement

the EOS satellitesTerra,Aqua, and Aura.The ESSP program consists of smaller missions

developed and implemented on a faster schedule, proposed by the scientific community

to address specific research questions.The first ESSP mission, GRACE, was launched

in March 2002.A second launch on 28 April 2006 deployed two more ESSP satellites,

CloudSat and CALIPSO, as mentioned in the previous subsection.After initial testing

and quality control, data from these key missions were made available in mid-2006.

CloudSat, a joint mission involving NASA, the U.S.Air Force, and the Canadian

Space Agency, is designed to measure cloud properties that are critical for understanding

cloud effects on both weather and climate.These cloud properties are not obtainable

from current satellite measurement systems.The mission’s primary science goal is to

furnish data needed to evaluate and improve the way clouds are parameterized in

global models, thereby contributing to better predictions of clouds and to a better

understanding of poorly understood cloud-climate feedbacks. CloudSat’s key

observations are the vertical profiles of cloud liquid- and ice-water content and related

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Figure 43: The “A-Train.” This figure illustrates the constellation of satellites known as the “A-Train,” which are making nearly contiguous

observations of many facets of the Earth system. Credit: NASA.
physical and radiative properties. It flies in tight formation with the CALIPSO satellite,

which was developed to provide new information about the effects of thin clouds and

aerosols on changes in the Earth’s climate. Global measurements of the three-dimensional

distributions of aerosols and clouds will provide scientists with a more comprehensive

data set that is essential for a better understanding of the Earth’s climate forcings and

feedbacks.The CALIPSO mission was implemented in collaboration with the French

space agency, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales. CloudSat and CALIPSO follow

behind the Aqua satellite as part of the multi-satellite formation termed the “A-train”

(see Figure 43 on the previous page). In addition to the EOS satellites Aura and Aqua,

the “A-train” satellite formation includes the French satellite PARASOL, a mission

designed to measure cloud and aerosol properties using polarization of reflected

sunlight.The combination of these data with coincident measurements from Aqua and

Aura will provide a rich source of information that can be used to assess the role of

clouds in both weather and climate.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

SolarVariability: Glory.The Glory mission will continue to be developed in FY 2007,

and is planned to launch in 2008. It will carry aTotal Irradiance Monitor (TIM) based

on the SORCETIM design, with the same high-precision phase-sensitive detection

capability. Glory will also carry an Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS), which will

improve our ability to distinguish among aerosol types by measuring the polarization

state of reflected sunlight. BothTIM and APS will provide key measurements beginning

in 2008, the minimum of solar cycle 24.This less-active portion of the 11-year solar

cycle is especially crucial in estimating any long-term trends in solar output—a key to

understanding the 20th-century context of global change, as the Sun is the single

entirely “external” forcing of the climate system that is unaffected by climate change

itself (see <glory.giss.nasa.gov>).

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. Motivated by the successes of the

TRMM satellite and recognizing the need for a more comprehensive global precipitation

measuring program, NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency conceived a

new Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission.A fundamental scientific goal

of the GPM Mission is to make substantial improvements in global precipitation

observations, especially in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, spatial

resolution, and coverage, thus extendingTRMM’s rainfall time series.To achieve this

goal, the mission will consist of a constellation of low-Earth-orbiting satellites carrying

various passive and active microwave measuring instruments.The GPM Mission will

be used to address important issues central to improving the predictions of climate,

weather, and hydrometeorological processes, to stimulate operational forecasting, and

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to underwrite an effective public outreach and education program, including nearreal-time dissemination of televised regional and global rainfall maps.Assessment of

how natural and anthropogenic aerosols affect precipitation variability (and therefore

the water cycle) is a complex and important problem.The capability to monitor the

diurnal cycle of rainfall globally with GPM is expected to enable significantly

improved understanding of the links between aerosols, climate variability, weather

changes, hydrometeorological anomalies, and small-scale cloud macrophysics and

microphysics.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Aquarius.Aquarius is a satellite mission to measure global sea surface salinity. Its

instruments will measure changes in sea surface salinity over the global oceans to a

precision of 2 parts in 10,000 (equivalent to about 1/6 of a teaspoon of salt in 1 gallon

of water). By measuring global sea surface salinity with good spatial and temporal

resolution,Aquarius will answer long-standing questions about how our oceans

respond to climate change and the water cycle, including changes in freshwater input

and output to the ocean associated with precipitation, evaporation, ice melting, and

river runoff.Aquarius is a collaboration between NASA and the Argentine space

agency with an expected launch date in 2009.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Ocean SurfaceTopography Mission.5The accurate, climate-quality record of

sea surface topography measurements, started in 1992 withTOPEX/POSEIDON and

continued in 2001 by the Jason satellite mission, will be extended with the Ocean

SurfaceTopography Mission (OSTM).These missions have provided accurate estimates

of regional sea-level change and of global sea-level rise unbiased by the uneven

distribution of tide gauges. Ocean topography measurements from these missions have

elucidated the role of tides in ocean mixing and maintaining deep ocean circulation.

Further, quantitative determination of ocean heat storage from satellite measurements

together with measurements from the global array of temperature/salinity profiling

floats known as Argo have confirmed climate model predictions of the Earth’s energy

imbalance that is primarily due to greenhouse gas forcing.The high levels of absolute

accuracy and cross-calibration make these missions uniquely suited for climate

research. OSTM is a collaboration among NASA, NOAA, the French space agency

CNES, and the European meteorological agency EUMETSAT, with a planned 2008

launch.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Orbiting Carbon Observatory.The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a new

mission, expected to launch in 2008, that will provide the first dedicated, space-based

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measurements of atmospheric CO2 (total column) with the precision, resolution, and

coverage needed to characterize carbon sources and sinks on regional scales and to

quantify their variability.Analyses of OCO data will regularly produce precise global

maps of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere that will enable more reliable projections of

future changes in the abundance and distribution of atmospheric CO2 and studies of

the effect that these changes may have on the Earth’s climate.

These activities will address Goals 12.2 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Sea SurfaceTemperature. Both short-term numerical weather prediction and

longer-term climate change detection require frequent, global sea surface temperature

(SST) measurements at fine spatial resolution. Currently there are many different

satellite-derived SST data sets available with varied product content, coverage, spatial

resolution, timeliness, format, and accuracy. Recognizing that existing SST data products

are less than ideal for numerical weather prediction and local- to global-scale climate

change detection, the international Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment steering

committee initiated a global high-resolution SST pilot project in 2000 to develop an

operational demonstration system that will deliver a new generation of SST data

products.These data products (10 km x 10 km and collected approximately every

6 hours) will be derived by combining readily available, complementary satellite and

in situ observations in real-time to improve spatial coverage, temporal resolution,

cross-sensor calibration stability, and SST product accuracy.The project will also

generate, in delayed mode, higher quality SST data records that take advantage of

additional data and techniques not available in near-real-time.The United States

contributes significantly to this international collaboration by supporting the Global

Data Assembly Center at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Physical Oceanography

DAAC and the Long-Term Stewardship and Reanalysis Facility at the NOAA National

Oceanographic Data Center, and by providing input data streams from its polar and

geostationary satellite platforms. Information on the U.S. contributions to the highresolution product can be found at <ghrsst.jpl.nasa.gov> and <ghrsst.nodc.noaa.gov>.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis.African Monsoon

Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is an international project to improve our

knowledge and understanding of theWest African Monsoon (WAM) and its variability,

with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual time scales.AMMA is motivated by an interest

in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the

WAM and its impacts onWest African nations. U.S. involvement in AMMA will focus

on climate, weather, and related aerosol issues associated with the African monsoon

regions.A multidisciplinary field program combining long-term monitoring over

several seasons with intensive observations occurred in the summer of 2006.The field

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measurements will be used to test and improve predictive models for the environment

and climate ofAfrica,and for the impact of the monsoon on the global environment. U.S.

participation inAMMA included ship,aircraft,and oceanographic sensors supported by

multiple CCSP agencies.The ARM Mobile Facility described earlier in this chapter is

conducting a year-long field campaign to study possible reasons for the ongoing drought

inWest Africa and the genesis of tropical waves that may evolve into hurricanes. In

January 2006, the AMF, stationed at a site in Niamey, Niger, began sampling absorbing

aerosols from desert dust in the dry season and deep convective clouds and large

column moisture loadings during the summer monsoon.AMF will help provide better

estimates of the Earth’s radiation budget by combining cloud and aerosol measurements

with those made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument on the

European Union satellite.The AMMA work will continue into 2007 and build upon

the results from the 2006 campaign as documented on the project web site,

<amma-international.org>.

These activities will address Goals 12.2 and 12.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

USGEO Near-Term Opportunity. USGEO

was established in March 2005 as a standing

subcommittee of the National Science and

Technology Council Committee on Environmental

and Natural Resources to replace the ad hoc

InteragencyWorking Group on Earth Observations

(IWGEO). USGEO has outlined a process for the

development of a modern information management

system, based on Federal Enterprise Architecture

principles.The process follows contemporary

commercial and academic practices for integrating

distributed resources within a virtual organization

framework based on a service-based architecture.

It uses existing data management planning as its

foundation, and relies heavily on an articulation of

how data are used to drive the system design.

USGEO is developing specific guidance to advance

existing agency efforts that address the six

“Near-Term Opportunities” outlined in the

USGEO Strategic Plan: disaster warning, global

land cover, sea level, drought, air quality, and

enhanced data management (see <usgeo.gov>).

These activities will address Goals 12.6 and 13.3

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Data Fusion.As the length-of-record in the database of global observations increases,

additional effort will be placed on assimilating Earth observations into GCMs, to

produce an integrated view of the climate system and to better provide this view to users

as part of decision-support and resource management systems.The value of the data itself

will benefit by increased “data fusion” in which, for example, MODIS observations

will be joined with the complementary capabilities of other Earth observing instruments,

to provide much improved, more accurate and rigorous observations of key phenomena

such as sea surface temperature, cloud characteristics, and land-surface features. Data

fusion efforts will include instruments on existing EOS missions such asTerra,Aqua,

ICESat,Aura, Landsat, and SORCE, and on recently launched missions such as

CloudSat and CALIPSO and, farther in the future, Earth System Science Pathfinder

missions and the GPM Mission. Such efforts will derive enhanced benefit from spaceborne platforms flying in formation, along with instrumented aircraft and surface

networks. Observations from the various systems will be co-registered in space and

time, and made available to users in a unified format. For example, MODIS observations

from theTerra and Aqua missions will be combined with similar observations to be

obtained from theVisible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) being developed

for the NPOESS Preparatory Project, currently scheduled for launch in 2009, and

NPOESS, currently scheduled for launch in 2013. Usefulness of the data fusion

between two or more satellite data sets will depend upon the requirements of the

application and the orbital characteristics (equatorial crossing time) of the satellites

involved.This will enhance the Nation’s imaging capability to observe land and

atmosphere features on a global basis, providing a significant advance over capabilities

provided for so many years by the venerable AdvancedVery High Resolution

Radiometer (AVHRR) that has flown successfully since 1981 on NOAA’s operational

satellite series. Efforts are being made to ensure the required data continuity.The

fusion of space-borne observations together with air, ground, and ocean observations

is crucial for gaining a better understanding of trends and associated consequences of

the variability in the atmosphere-land-ocean system.This activity is closely related to

the CCSP climate variability and change research element’s priority of improving

Earth system analysis capabilities.

These activities will address Goals 13.2 and 13.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Maintenance Needs.As new satellite instruments bring new measurement

capabilities, a critical challenge is to maintain existing observing capabilities in areas of

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
importance to CCSP. For example, maintenance of the observational record of

stratospheric ozone is essential to discern the nature and timing of projected ozone

recovery. Other key variables requiring maintenance include radiative energy fluxes of

the Sun and Earth, atmospheric CO2 and methane concentrations, global surface

temperature, and global land cover (e.g., as measured by Landsat).

The long-term record of global land cover was begun by Landsat 1 in 1972 and

continues through the collection of data from Landsat 5 and Landsat 7. Landsat 7 was

affected by a mechanical problem that occurred in May 2003.While Landsat 7 is still

collecting seasonal global data sets, the data contain gaps in every scene (25% of each

scene’s pixels are missing along east/west edges).Techniques have been developed to

partially compensate for the loss of data and Landsat 7 continues to provide usable

data (see Figure 44). Landsat 5 continues to be a “workhorse” system for Earth

observing studies. Launched in 1984, with a design life of 3 to 5 years, Landsat 5

continues to provide near-global data coverage, although the coverage is not

amalgamated in the U. S. archive due to technical problems.A mechanical problem

interrupted Landsat 5’s operation in late 2005, but has since been corrected.

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Landsat-7 Data Gap Correction: Washington Dulles International Airport

SLC-Off: 14 November 2004 Gaps Filled with Images from

16 December 2004 and 1 January 2005

Figure 44: Landsat-7 Data

Gap Correction: Washington

Dulles International Airport.

These products represent a

portion of a false-color

Landsat-7 scene over the

Dulles airport area in Virginia,

showing the gap-filled product

developed to compensate for a

mechanical problem on

Landsat-7. Credit: R. Beck,

U.S. Geological Survey.
Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 combined permit repeat coverage as frequently as every

8 days over ground-receiving station sites. Events such as Hurricane Katrina demonstrate

the importance of frequent coverage, as shown in Figure 45.While scientists are

looking to use other U.S. and international satellite instruments to provide interim

land-cover data, there is a recognized need to ensure the continuing availability of

high-quality land-cover measurements into the future.As such, Dr. John Marburger,

the Director of the Office of Science andTechnology Policy, formally outlined a series

of near-term actions for DOC, DOD, DOI, and NASA on 23 December 2005.

Dr. Marburger stated:

“It remains the goal of the U.S. Government to transition the Landsat program

from a series of independently planned missions to a sustained operational

program funded and managed by a U.S. Government operational agency or

agencies, international consortium, and/or commercial partnership.

Concurrent with the actions cited above, the National Science andTechnology

Council—in coordination with NASA, DOI/USGS, and other agencies and

offices of the Executive Office of the President, as appropriate—will lead

an effort to develop a long-term plan to achieve technical, financial, and

managerial stability for operational land imaging in accord with the goals

and objectives of the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System.”

The record of precipitation that has been extended in recent years to include

oceanic as well as land areas using measurements fromTRMM is another example of a

key climate data set that needs to be maintained and extended.These few examples of

key climate variables are essential elements of the comprehensive observing system

needed to monitor changes in the cycles of carbon, energy, water, and related

biogeochemical processes that drive Earth’s climate. Since the value of existing climate

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

Flooding in New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina

24 April 2006 30 August 2006

Figure 45: Flooding in New

Orleans due to Hurricane

Katrina. Satellite observations

can be used to provide frequent

high-quality land-cover

measurements in responding to

rapid changes that occur during

flooding and large-scale fires.

This is graphically demonstrated

by the comparison of two

Landsat images showing areas

of flooding in New Orleans due

to Hurricane Katrina.

Credit: R. Beck,

U.S. Geological Survey.
data sets greatly increases as the record is extended in time, it is imperative that existing

observing capabilities be maintained and improved, while at the same time incorporating

new requirements.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Development of a Climate Data Record Maturity Model.A combined effort

between NOAA and NASA contributors to the OWG Data and Information Systems

Subgroup has produced an initial form for a maturity model that appears to have

excellent potential for combining multiple metrics into a framework for assessing and

prioritizing climate data records.The maturity model has three basic axes:

• Scientific Maturity, related to uncertainty and capture of community understanding

• Preservation Maturity, related to managing the risk of data loss and cost effectiveness

• Societal Benefit/Impact, related to the value of the data and context for long-term

use and data access.

The model suggests attributes for each axis and rankings for each attribute. By using

the rankings, it is possible to develop consensus valuations of the maturity and potential

value of a proposed climate data record, and thereby assist in decisions regarding

archiving.The model was presented at several workshops during 2005 and early 2006,

including the CCSPWorkshop in Arlington and the Earth Science Information

Partners Federation meeting inWashington, DC, in early January 2006.This model is

also likely to be applied in NASA reviews of data products during 2007.

These activities will address Goal 13.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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1) ACIA, 2005: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United

Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA, 1042 pp.

2) Chelton, D.B., M.G. Schlax, M.H. Freilich, and R.F. Milliff, 2004: Satellite measurements reveal

persistent small-scale features in ocean winds. Science, 303, 978-983.

3) Cheng, M. and B.D.Tapley, 2004:Variations in the Earth’s oblateness during the past 28 years.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, B09402, doi:10.1029/2004JB003028.

4) Han, S.-C., C.K. Shum, C. Jekeli, and D.Alsdorf, 2005: Improved estimation of terrestrial water

storage changes from GRACE. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L07302, doi:10.1029/2005GL022382.

5) Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J.Wiollis,A. Del Genio, D. Koch,A. Lacis, K. Lo,

S. Menon,T. Novakov, J. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N.Tausnev, 2005: Earth’s energy

imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science, 308, 1431-1435.

6) Nghiem, S.V., K. Steffen, G. Neumann, and R. Huff, 2005: Mapping of ice layer extent and snow

accumulation in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Journal of Geophysical Research,

110, F02017, doi:10.1029/2004JF000234.

7) Parkinson, C. L. and D. J. Cavalieri, 2002:A 21-year record of Arctic sea-ice extents and their

regional, seasonal and monthly variability and trends. Annals of Glaciology, 34, 441-446.

8) Tapley, B.D., S. Bettadpur, J.C. Ries, P.F.Thompson, and M.M.Watkins, 2004: GRACE

measurements of mass variability in the Earth system. Science, 305, 503-505.

OBSERVING AND MONITORINGTHE CLIMATE SYSTEM

CHAPTER REFERENCES
9 Communications

The CCSP, in its vision for the program, identified

communications as one of four core approaches for achieving

its five overarching scientific goals.The CCSP is committed to

communicating with interested partners in the United States

and throughout the world, and learning from these partners on

a continuing basis.As an essential part of its mission, the CCSP

stresses openness and transparency in its findings and reports.

The Communications InteragencyWorking Group (CIWG),

established during FY 2004, develops and executes an

implementation plan each year that focuses on disseminating

the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively and

making CCSP science findings and products easily available to

a diverse set of audiences. Elements of the implementation

plan for calendar year 2006 include:

• Media Relations – when requested by the CCSP Director,

assisting in communicating on matters relating to climate

science

• Public Outreach – developing materials and methods for

public outreach on issues related to climate science and the

activities and products of CCSP

• Web Sites – developing and advancing a strategy for improving, integrating, and

promoting the content of web sites operated or supported by CCSP and its

participating agencies, recognizing that the sites are essential communication and

outreach tools.

The Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO), funded and supervised by the

agencies and departments participating in CCSP, supports the program’s communications

goals, along with members of the CIWG. CCSPO assists the CIWG, coordinates

preparation of the annual Our Changing Planet report to Congress as well as other

reports, and is responsible for managing the program’s interagency web sites.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT INTERAGENCY

COMMUNICATIONS ACTIVITY

Listed below are highlights of recent communications activities coordinated at the

interagency level:

• Published and distributed Our Changing Planet:The U.S. Climate Change Science

Program for FiscalYear 2006.

• Published seven basic information sheets: Overview of the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program, Overview of the CCSP Research Elements, Overview of the

CCSP Strategic Plan, Overview of the CCSP Budget, CCSP Synthesis and

Assessment Products, Methane as a Greenhouse Gas and an overview of the CCSP

Annual Report to Congress Our Changing Planet.

• Added new material to CCSP’s publicly accessible web sites, including the FY 2006

edition of Our Changing Planet and materials relating to CCSP’s synthesis and

assessment products.These include draft and final prospectuses that provide

background information on each planned report and a detailed roadmap that will

be followed in producing it. CCSP also posted the public review and final drafts for

the first synthesis and assessment product (TemperatureTrends in the Lower Atmosphere:

Steps for Understanding and

Reconciling Differences).These

postings help ensure early and

ongoing review of synthesis and

assessment products by stakeholders.

• Facilitated stakeholder participation

in the U.S. Government review of

draft documents of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC).

• Sponsored the CCSP workshop,

Climate Science in Support of

Decision Making, for scientists and

stakeholders in November 2005.

• Managed and improved CCSP web

sites.Traffic to CCSP’s three main

sites increased to over 7,000 visits

per day by December 2005, a 53%

increase over December 2004.

CCSPO also improved web services

to facilitate interagency

collaboration.

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• Managed the Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO). Mandated by

the Global Change Research Act of 1990, the purpose of the office is to

“disseminate to foreign governments, businesses, and institutions, as well as the

citizens of foreign countries, scientific research information available in the United

States which would be useful in preventing, mitigating, or adapting to the effects of

global change.” GCRIO includes a major web site, with two important features:

– The GCRIO online catalog for requesting reports and CDs. Relative to

FY 2004, the average number of orders received per month increased 94% in

FY 2005, and the average number of products shipped per month increased

408% over FY 2004.

– Ask Dr. Global Change, which provides answers to global change questions

submitted by web site visitors.

• Managed the CCTP public web site, where the number of visits doubled between

December 2004 and December 2005. CCSPO also provides additional support

services to CCTP, including development and management of password-protected

web sites and publications support.

HIGHLIGHTS OF CCSP INTERAGENCY

COMMUNICATIONS PLANS FOR FY 2007

Listed below are some of the communications activities coordinated at the interagency

level that are planned for FY 2007:

• Ensure early and ongoing review of draft synthesis and assessment products by

stakeholder communities and promote the release of final synthesis and assessment

products, communicating information about their availability and key findings.

CIWG will advise the synthesis and assessment product teams and lead agencies on

communications-related issues including: dissemination to appropriate stakeholders,

briefings, press releases, and summaries for a range of audiences across different

information media.

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• Prepare, publish, publicize, and

disseminate the FY 2008 edition of

Our Changing Planet.

• Facilitate stakeholder participation in the

U.S. Government review of draft IPCC

documents.

• Continue to improve and expand web

sites by preparing and posting new web

content, improving web site usability and

accessibility, enhancing integration

between agency and interagency web

sites, and expanding web services to

CCSP working groups.

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10 International Research

and Cooperation

During FY 2007, CCSP will continue to cooperate and

coordinate its research with its international partners,

particularly through international programs and related

activities of wide agency interest that are intended to advance

understanding of climate and global change. Individual agencies

also support international programs and activities that aid the

agency in addressing its mission and, in many cases, also

contribute to national objectives.To promote effective

international coordination of these programs and activities,

CCSP provides from distributed costs a U.S. share of

multilateral support for such coordination.

Additional activities supported by CCSP, updated here, include

capacity building, a wide variety of international assessment and

decision-support activities, bilateral arrangements in climate

change science and technology, and a wide range of additional

climate-related cooperative and coordination activities.

CCSP participates in and provides input to four major

international scientific and related organizations on behalf of

the U.S. Government and scientific community. It does so in

part through its working groups, including the InteragencyWorking Group on

International Research and Cooperation. In addition, CCSP promotes and encourages

the broadest possible participation of U.S. scientists and scientific institutions in

international climate science.

These international global change research programs—theWorld Climate Research

Programme (WCRP), the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), the

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and DIVERSITAS—are now

coordinating and integrating their activities through the Earth System Science

Partnership (ESSP).The SysTem for Analysis, Research, andTraining (START) also

receives strong U.S. support for its activities to promote outreach and capacity building

that support theWCRP, IGBP, IHDP, and DIVERSITAS.The United States also actively

encourages regional cooperation in climate change research, especially through its

support of regional global change research networks such as the Inter-American

Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), and the Asia-Pacific Network for Global

Change Research. Most recently, with cooperation from ESSP, the United States

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
provided support for a successful workshop to explore needs and opportunities for

more formal cooperation in global change research in Africa.

The United States continues to encourage international cooperation in the development

of observing systems through its continued participation in the Global Earth

Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

The United States also continues to cooperate with its partners in a number of

international scientific assessment and decision-support activities such as the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), theWorld Meteorological

Organisation (WMO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ozone

assessments, and other applications-related programs such as the International

Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI).

The United States, through CCSP agencies, supports advancement of several

Presidential international initiatives including the suite of 15 climate change bilateral

agreements coordinated by DOS.

Updates regarding these and other key international activities follow. For more

detailed background information on these international activities, see Chapter 15 of

the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

COOPERATION IN SUPPORT OF

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS

World Climate Research Program.WCRP focuses on fundamental understanding

of the physical climate system, improvement of predictions, and understanding the

extent of human influence on global change. In so doing,WCRP’s activities are closely

tied to the goals of CCSP, especially Goals 1, 2, and 3.WCRP has made significant

progress this year in planning for implementation of its new cross-cutting

multidisciplinary strategic framework for Coordinated Observation and Prediction of

the Earth System (COPES).AWCRP team recently made a series of visits to a number

of CCSP agencies to explain their planning and proposed implementation of COPES.

TheWCRP Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) has developed a

prototype observing system of systems for the global water cycle, involving 35 reference

sites, national and international space agencies, and 11 operational numerical weather

prediction centers. Composite CEOP products are being used to assess the quality of

operational numerical weather forecasts and climate models. Researchers and scientists

involved in operational climate forecasting systems are also making considerable use of

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data from the tropical observing system, first developed in the Pacific under the auspices

of theWCRPTropical Ocean Global Atmosphere project and now expanded into the

Atlantic and planned for the Indian Ocean.

TheWCRP ClimateVariability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project has launched a

study to determine the extent to which seasonal prediction across the globe is possible

and useful with currently available models and data. It is coordinating ongoing activities

in about 10 research and forecast centers around the world, evaluating and comparing

the performance of the present systems, encouraging the exchange of model results,

and organizing joint pilot numerical experiments.

WCRP’s longer term strategy is to organize coordinated prediction and

predictability experiments with ocean-land-atmosphere models that will ultimately

lead to seamless weekly, seasonal, interannual, and decadal forecasts.This requires that

the roles of the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere be properly simulated in

comprehensive models of the climate system, which are also capable of assimilating

weather and climate observations.This calls for a sustained research effort in validating

and developing climate models and data assimilation techniques.An important test of

success will be the validation of climate models through their ability to simulate past

climate variability, including abrupt climate changes.

Major scientific progress in studies of the water cycle, precipitation regimes, and

water resources was summarized at the fifth International Global Energy andWater

Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Conference, held in June 2005, in California.

Continental-scale experiments are still underway to study the components of the

water cycle over the major continents, including North and South America, Eastern

Asia, and Australia, and a new experiment in Africa has been launched with the support

ofWCRP.The African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) has begun a

multi-year field campaign overWest Africa and the tropical Atlantic, designed to

improve understanding of theWest African Monsoon and its influence on regional and

global climate. It includes physical, atmospheric chemistry, and biological studies of

interest for sustainable development in Africa, and includes components dealing

directly with health, water resources, food security, and demography.

WCRP expects to focus in the

coming year on areas of particular

interest to the United States.These

include research on improving

seasonal-to-interannual prediction

through CLIVAR; on the water cycle,

precipitation regimes, and water

resources; on monsoon processes and

forecasting; on atmospheric chemistry,

stratospheric processes, and climate,

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
especially through a new jointWCRP-IGBPTask Force on Atmospheric Chemistry and

Climate; and on the cryosphere, polar research, and the International PolarYear (IPY).

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. IGBP, with its focus on the

interactions between biological, chemical, and physical processes and human systems,

contributes to CCSP Goals 1, 2, 4, and 5.The IGBP’s core and joint projects involve a

number of leading U.S. global change scientists. U.S. scientists are represented

throughout the leadership of IGBP.

Key IGBP objectives for the coming year of substantive interest to the United

States include finalization and publication of the science plan and implementation

strategy for the next decade of IGBP research; planning for two integrative IGBP

projects (the new project on Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System

and the second phase of the study of Past Global Changes); launching of a new ESSP

cross-cutting study of global change and human health; further development and

implementation of the Monsoon Asia Regional Study that will be carried out together

withWCRP, IHDP, and DIVERSITAS; and expansion and improvement of IGBP’s

scientific contributions to efforts of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable

Development and to the next IPCC assessment report.

International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental

Change. U.S. scientists play a lead role in planning and implementation of IHDP

projects. IHDP develops and provides important inputs to CCSP efforts, including

decision support as well CCSP Goals 1 and 5. IHDP held an Open Science Conference

in 2005 that was attended by over 900 participants from across the globe and provided

valuable input for the IHDP’s development of a strategic plan and framework for its

activities from 2007 to 2012.This plan is expected to call for expansion of South-North

and South-South dialogs in order to more fully involve scientists from developing

countries in IHDP and its individual projects.

IHDP intends in the coming year to introduce two new projects: a new IHDP

core project on Urbanization and Global Environmental Change and a new cross-cutting

Global Land Project, the latter to be co-sponsored by IGBP. IHDP will also play a

major role in the new ESSP program on global change and human health.A new task

force has been established to identify needs for and approaches to modeling related to

the human dimensions of global change. IHDP is also working in conjunction with IGBP

to implement the new phase of studies of land-ocean interactions in the coastal zone.

IHDP has also been involved in capacity building—for example, by hosting four

training seminars involving 60 scientists and 20 trainers in conjunction with their

Open Science Conference. IHDP is planning the 5th International Human Dimensions

Workshop on the International Dimensions of Global Environmental Change that will

focus on “Water,Trade, and the Environment” in October 2006 in Chiang Mai,Thailand.

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DIVERSITAS.The DIVERSITAS program focuses on advancing the science of

biodiversity, including quantification of biodiversity, the effects of global environmental

change on biodiversity, and the effects of loss of biodiversity on ecosystem function.

Through its activities, DIVERSITAS contributes to CCSP Goal 4, as well as other

programs of high priority for the United States. U.S. scientists play an important role

in developing and implementing DIVERSITAS research and syntheses.

The DIVERSITAS scientific program is evolving and the program itself is just now

maturing. DIVERSITAS convened an Open Science Conference in November 2005 that

included 42 sessions and symposia and was attended by more than 600 participants

from 60 countries, one-third of whom were from developing countries. DIVERSITAS

was also involved in the preparations, especially in assembling the scientific program,

for the international conference on “Biodiversity: Science and Government” held in

January 2005 in Paris, which attracted about 2,000 participants from diverse sectors

of society and from about 100 countries.

DIVERSITAS activities planned for the coming year that are of particular interest

include the efforts of its bioDISCOVERY project that is directed to systematics,

monitoring, and drivers of biodiversity change.Activities in this area are expected to

contribute substantially to four of the specific elements of the GEOSSWork Plan.

The ecoSERVICES project is developing an agenda for the next generation of field

experiments on the impacts of biodiversity changes on ecosystem functioning. Its

bioSUSTAINABILITY project has convened a series of workshops and symposia

directed at decisionmaking under uncertainty, urban bio-sustainability, and biodiversity

measures for sustainable development in Southeast Asia.

In addition, DIVERSITAS is developing three new networks on biodiversity and

agriculture, freshwater diversity, and biodiversity assessments in mountainous regions.

DIVERSITAS is making major contributions to improving scientific input to the

international Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Five new countries have

joined the DIVERSITAS program over the past year and have contributed to the

DIVERSITAS core budget.

SysTem for Analysis, Research andTraining.The START program is sponsored

byWCRP, IGBP, and IHDP, and seeks to establish regional networks of collaborating

scientists and institutions in developing countries, thereby augmenting the capacity of

those countries to conduct research on global change, including climate change. By

establishing research networks and partnerships in developing countries, including

areas where observations and data are sparse, the START program increases global

capacity to conduct research on global change and thereby contributes to CCSP goals.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
The United States continues to host the international START Secretariat inWashington,

DC. START intends in the coming years to address the following challenges and

developments in global change science:

• Moving beyond thematic/sectoral studies toward integrated regional studies that

couple biophysical and human components; that coordinate observations, modeling,

and process studies; and that address the two-way linkages between regional and

global-scale change

• Promoting investigation of the biophysical impacts of urbanization (including the rise

of mega-cities) and the effects of alternative development pathways on the carbon cycle

• Stimulating a second generation approach to impact assessment, with emphasis on

vulnerabilities and risks posed by combined regional and global environmental

change, which employs methods of risk assessment to better link science to policy

formulation

• Acting to address the need for a vast increase in research-driven capacity building

and research partnerships between science communities in the developed and

developing world.

To this end, START plans over the coming year to:

• Initiate a new project on Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation

that will involve as many as nine regional studies in developing areas of the world

(with support provided by the European Union and the United Kingdom)

• Complete its program on Assessments of the Impacts of and Adaptations to Climate

Changes, including preparation and submission of final reports to UNEP and the

Global Environmental Facility

• Plan and convene its 2nd InternationalYoung Scientists’ Conference to be held

7-8 November 2006, in Beijing, China, to immediately precede the ESSP Open

Science Conference

• Convene a synthesis workshop in India on risk and vulnerability

• Convene an initial training session of an advanced study institute on water in the

context of climate change

• Support capacity building for global change research in developing countries,

especially in Asia and Africa.

Earth System Science Partnership. ESSP brings together researchers from

diverse fields and across international boundaries to investigate multidisciplinary

problems such as carbon, food, health, and water that cut across the objectives of its

member programs. ESSP has established four joint projects: the Global Carbon

Project, Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS; see below), the

GlobalWater System Project, and Global Change and Human Health.All of these

programs draw from expertise of the U.S. scientific community and are expected to

make substantive contributions to CCSP goals.

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ESSP will convene its first Open Science Conference on 9-12 November 2006, in

Beijing, China.The objectives of the conference are to:

• Present the results of the last 5 years of global environmental change research,

emphasizing the Earth system science approach, in particular as it relates to ESSP

joint projects on carbon, food, health, and water

• Highlight the variety of research conducted by the global environmental change

community, particularly the core projects of the four international environmental

change programs, and how that research contributes to and supports the objectives

of ESSP

• Point the way for the next decade of Earth system science.

Themes selected thus far for the conference include:

• Earth System Science Approach.Advances in studies of the physical, biogeochemical,

biodiversity, and human dimensions aspects of global environmental change

• Integrated Regional Studies.The dynamics, impacts, and consequences of the

interactions between natural and social systems (including extreme events) at

regional scales and how they connect with global-scale phenomena

• Global Change in Monsoon Asia. Global environmental change research in monsoonaffected areas of Asia

• Science for Sustainability. Global environmental change research relating to carbon,

food, human health, and water as reflected in the ESSP joint projects.

The Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Project. GECAFS is

an interdisciplinary research project spanning the natural and social sciences. It is

developing a science agenda with direct inputs into policymaking.The new science

agenda explicitly includes both how food systems could be adapted to cope with the

impacts of global environmental change, and how different adaptation strategies could

affect socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Of particular interest are possible

feedbacks to the Earth system from efforts to improve food security relating to the

dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and water.

GECAFS brings together the agendas of global environmental change science and

international development and will form partnerships between the environmental

change research community and a broad range of other organizations, including

national and international research bodies, national and international assessment units,

national and regional civil society stakeholders and governmental authorities,

intergovernmental organizations and United Nations agencies, and national and

international donor agencies.This wide range of scientists and stakeholders working

together will build upon and add value to the individual research agendas of the

international environmental change research programs.

GECAFS’ goal is to determine strategies to cope with global environmental

change impacts on food systems and to assess environmental and socioeconomic

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving

food security.This goal will be achieved by improved

understanding of interactions between food systems

and the Earth system’s key socioeconomic and

biogeophysical components.The research agenda will be

specifically targeted toward delivering new information

necessary to underpin policy formulation for improving

food security in the face of global environmental change.

The long-term aims of GECAFS are to understand

how global environmental change will affect food

security in different regions and among different

socioeconomic groups; to determine how different

societies might adapt their food systems to cope with

both global environmental change and changing demands for food; to assess how

strategies designed to cope with global environmental change and changing demands

for food will affect the environment, societies, and economies; and to provide

information and research findings in formats that help improve policymaking for food

systems in the context of global environmental change.

GECAFS aims to deliver a number of science-based products in the medium-term

(3 to 5 years) to help achieve the long-term aims. GECAFS, which is a joint project of

IGBP, IHDP, andWCRP, builds on ongoing ESSP research, helps set new ESSP agendas,

and helps set IGBP, IHDP, andWCRP core project research in the broader context of

economic development.This requires innovative research partnerships and, to this end,

GECAFS has established formal research partnerships with the Consultative Group on

International Agricultural Research, the United Nations Food and Agriculture

Organization, andWMO.These partnerships are intended to help set a precedent for

formal collaboration between science and development agendas in environmental

change research to mutual benefit. It also raises the priority of environmental change

issues in development agencies.

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. IAI is an

intergovernmental treaty organization established in 1994 to promote collaborative

research on global change in the Americas. IAI encourages hemispheric collaboration

on projects that would otherwise not be possible, and has developed a rigorous

scientific review process for proposals it receives. IAI requires every project to be a

closely integrated effort of physical and social scientists so that projects, in addition to

undertaking research on important scientific issues, provide information for local,

national, and/or regional decisionmakers.

From among over 30 IAI networks, a network focused on “biogeochemical cycles

under land-use change in the semi-arid Americas” was formed between research

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institutions in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, andVenezuela which provides an

example of the type of work typically carried out with IAI support.This network

integrates biogeochemical and socioeconomic data at the farm and regional scales

within different land-use and soil management systems in order to evaluate and predict

regional changes in resource quality. Often, information resulting from global change

research does not reach rural communities; however, this IAI network successfully

distributed scientific information to farmers within the study regions (municipalities)

and supported predictions at a regional scale. Several national extension service

bulletins included recommendations for soil management and conservation developed

during this project.

The network’s researchers participated in the consultant group for the new

Argentine provincial soil conservation law that was passed in 2004, and the Provincial

Secretary for the Environment made use of network-generated publications to raise

consciousness about soil degradation in agricultural and natural ecosystems. In

Mexico’sYucatan Peninsula, the network studied the decline of corn productivity after

the second year of cultivation, and determined that corn production can be maintained

with the use of cover crops and green manures.The Mexican state government adopted

these recommendations as a formal policy.

The network found that the removal of native vegetation for establishment of

pastures or agricultural fields in the study areas of northeastern Brazil and the La Pampa

area of Argentina consistently led to severe decreases in soil fertility.The increasing

area of cash-crop production in Argentina caused higher stocking rates in the savanna

ranching region, with farmers moving their cattle to less productive regions while

intensifying agricultural production in more humid regions.This phenomenon caused

overstocking and overgrazing of natural grasslands and depletion of soil carbon.

The network developed a spatially explicit land-use model for agricultural

ecosystems in northeastern Brazil and the La Pampa area of Argentina that takes into

account varying climatic scenarios.The network developed an indicator of soil

degradation and productive potential that is being used for soil management

recommendations as well as for land-use policy decisions on a regional scale.The

network also identified strong competition

for water between trees and crop species, and

proposed the adoption of other agroforestry

practices to avoid competitive interactions.

Understanding of the relationship between

the quality of organic fertilizer available

within the farms, nitrogen mineralization, and

synchronization to crop demand allowed

fertilization practices that increased crop

productivity up to 300%.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN OBSERVING SYSTEMS

Group on Earth Observations. On 31 July 2003, 33 nations plus the European

Commission adopted a declaration that signifies political commitment to move toward

development of a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observation system.

The Earth Observation Summit was hosted by three Cabinet Secretaries and attracted

a distinguished group of ministers and other dignitaries from around the world who

were committed to significantly advancing our collective ability to gather and apply

Earth observation data.

Summit participants affirmed the need for timely, quality long-term global

information as a basis for sound decisionmaking. In order to monitor continuously the

state of the Earth, to increase understanding of dynamic Earth processes, to enhance

prediction of the Earth system, and to further implement environmental treaty

obligations, participants recognized the need to support the creation of a comprehensive,

coordinated, and sustained Earth observing system of systems.

To further this goal, Summit participants launched the intergovernmental ad hoc

Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to develop a 10-Year Implementation Plan.At

the third Earth Observation Summit in Brussels, Belgium, on 16 February 2005,

ministers from almost 60 countries and the European Commission established GEO

on a long-term basis to take the steps necessary to implement GEOSS. Participants

endorsed the GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan, which describes collective targeted

actions for establishing GEOSS, and stated their intention to provide the support

necessary to execute the plan.

The first meeting of the newly established GEO took place in May 2005, at which

China, the European Commission, South Africa, and the United States were selected as

GEO Co-Chairs and an Executive Committee was created to facilitate and implement

decisions of the GEO Plenary between meetings.At its second plenary-level meeting

in December 2005, GEO formally established committees and agreed to embark on

an ambitious 2006 work plan that encompasses all nine societal benefit areas (see

Figure 46) identified in the GEOSS Implementation Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007

GEO Societal Benefits Focus

Understanding environmental factors affecting

human health and well-being

Improving management of

energy resources

Understanding,

assessing, predicting,

mitigating, and

adapting to climate

variability and change

Improving water resource

management through better

understanding of the water cycle

Improving weather information,

forecasting, and warning

Improving the management and protection of terrestrial,

coastal, and marine ecosystems

Supporting sustainable agriculture and

combating desertification

Understanding, monitoring, and

conserving biodiversity

Reducing loss of life and property from natural

and human-induced disasters

Figure 46: GEO Societal Benefits

Focus. This illustration highlights

the areas of societal benefit

identified in the GEOSS

Implementation Plan.

Credit: U.S. Group on Earth

Observations.
While GEOSS benefits the climate community, it also addresses a wide range of

other priority applications—for example, agricultural management, biodiversity,

disasters, ecosystems, energy resources, health, water, and weather. GEO currently

includes 60 countries and the European Commission, as well as 43 international

organizations.

SELECTED INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS

AND DECISION-SUPPORT PROGRAMS

Sector Applications Research Program.The Sector Applications Research

Program (SARP) seeks to bridge the gap between science and decisionmaking through

the focused creation, dissemination, and exchange of climate-related research findings

critical for understanding and addressing resource management challenges in vital

social and economic sectors (e.g., coastal and water resources, agriculture, health).

SARP fosters decision-support research and applications activities that link

science and technology to economic development, sustainable management needs,

and policymaking processes.The program builds upon a 10-year NOAA endeavor in

human dimensions research and climate research applications, and recent advances in

research, assessment, and decision-support systems for climate and global change.

The programs from which SARP evolved entailed international activities that

advanced the use of science in decisionmaking, such as Regional Climate Outlook

Forums, interdisciplinary human dimensions research, pilot applications projects,

workshops, training sessions, capacity building, and technical assistance in Africa,

Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Pacific. Partners included

theWorld Bank,WMO, USAID, IRI, and regional institutions in Africa, Latin America

and the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, and the South Pacific. In the coming year, SARP

will continue to build upon and expand these partnerships and activities as appropriate,

including the funding of targeted applications research activities in key sectors (e.g.,

water resources, coastal management).

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.The full underlying scientific document was

published as planned at the end of 2005.The 1,042-page scientific report stands as the

most comprehensive document to date addressing the state of the Arctic climate. It

will serve the scientific and policy communities as an important reference on Arctic

climate, its changes, and potential impacts.The report is available for download from

the ACIA Secretariat (<www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html>) and for purchase

from Cambridge University Press.

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.The technical volumes of the Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment—a $21 million, four-year effort involving 1,500 of the world’s

leading scientists—were released on 19 January 2006.These are the working group

reports that examine Current State andTrends, Scenarios, Policy Responses, and

Multi-Scale Assessments.A summary for decisionmakers of the four technical volumes

was also released.These reports should advance natural resource management by

providing peer-reviewed, policy-relevant information to decisionmakers in the

government and the private sector.This information is of high relevance to a variety of

international ecosystem-related conventions, including the CBD.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society. In October 2005,

theTrustees of Columbia University added “Society” to IRI’s name to better reflect the

work of the Institute.The mission of IRI is to enhance society’s capability to understand,

anticipate, and manage the impacts of seasonal climate fluctuations, in order to

improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries. IRI’s

international efforts involve research in climate prediction, monitoring, and analysis

targeted to address problems of climate risk in agriculture and food security; water

resources; public health; disasters; and cross-cutting issues such as drought management.

A combination of scientific rigor, problem-centered analysis, and partner teamwork is

beginning to yield successful approaches to climate risk management.

IRI has several ongoing projects in Africa,Asia, and Latin America. Many of these

projects will continue in FY 2007.These include implementing an agricultural pilot

project in the Southern Province of Zambia as part of theWMO implementation of the

USAID project for Southern Africa; development of user-friendly climate information

for the malaria control service and support for the operation of integrated Malaria Early

Warning Systems in South Africa; linking climate forecasts with crop simulation models

to predict field-scale maize yields at sites in southern Kenya and southern Zambia;

incorporating climate forecasts into season-ahead decisionmaking on rice imports in

Indonesia; and research on the impact of droughts on livelihoods in Rajasthan, India.

In addition, IRI has launched an effort to raise institutional and societal awareness

of climate vulnerability and risk as an arena for action. IRI initiated institutional and

policy research at two demonstration sites in Southeast Asia through a framework of

collaborative research programs with two key socioeconomic research institutes in the

region.The Angat Reservoir in the Philippines supplies water for Manila, and provides

water for irrigation and hydropower needs. IRI is studying the institutional setting and

decisionmaking process for the Angat Reservoir to explore opportunities to use climate

forecasts of streamflow to improve management of limited water resources. In Nusa

TenggaraTimur, Indonesia, IRI has undertaken institutional and policy research to

understand the dynamics and decisionmaking related to food security in this remote

and poor province of Indonesia, which experiences highly variable rainfall.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.The U.S. Government is the

leading contributor to the IPCC and has played an active role in the IPCC process

since its inception.The United States currently chairs IPCC’sWorking Group I (which

focuses on the physical basis of climate change) and provides support for itsTechnical

Support Unit (TSU).

In FY 2005, theWorking Group ITSU played a lead role in the coordination and

publication of a Special Report on Ozone and Climate (SROC), entitled Safeguarding

the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons

and Perfluorocarbons.The report covers scientific aspects of ozone-depleting substances

and their substitutes as they pertain to radiative forcing, as well as issues involved in

addressing atmospheric emissions of these substances.The Summary for Policymakers

was approved and the underlying report accepted in April 2005.A Special Report on

Carbon Capture and Storage (SRCCS), overseen by theWorking Group IIITSU in

he Netherlands, was approved and accepted in September 2005. On behalf of DOS,

CCSP coordinated the U.S. Government review of the SROC, including the final

concurrence check of the summary documents. CCSP assisted the CCTP with like

responsibilities for the SRCCS. Both reports involved extensive participation from

U.S. scientists and technical experts.

The IPCC is now focusing all effort on development and production of its Fourth

Assessment Report (AR4). CCSP supports participation of experts to serve as

Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and Review Editors, and to participate in

workshops that contribute to the IPCC process.At present, 79 U.S. scientists serve as

AR4 authors and 14 as Review Editors.

During FY 2006, first drafts were revised taking into consideration the very large

number of comments received during the staggered Expert Reviews (held from

September to November 2005 forWorking Groups I and II, and November 2005 to

January 2006 forWorking Group III). CCSP coordinated the U.S. Government review

of the second drafts of theWorking Group I and II contributions to AR4 (April to

June 2006 forWorking Group I and May to July 2006 forWorking Group II) and

CCTP coordinated the U.S. Government review of the second draft of theWorking

Group III contribution (July to September 2006). IPCC authors are using government

and expert inputs to prepare a final draft by late 2006. CCSP and CCTP also will be

involved in the review of the respective Summaries for Policymakers andTechnical

Summaries.All working group contributions to the AR4 are expected to be completed

by May 2007.

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is

part of a U.S.-Canadian-European collaborative regional climate modeling study.

NARCCAP joins, as a new U.S. and Canadian component, the EU Prediction of

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Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks

and Effects project. NARCCAP’s primary objective is to develop, and make openly

available, multiple high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for use in impact

and risk assessments.

Analyses of the scenarios, with a focus on North America, will be conducted in

FY 2007 in order to understand critical regional climate change issues, such as the

effects of increased greenhouse gases on the frequency of various types of extreme

weather events; to enhance understanding of key issues in regional climate modeling,

including methodological approaches; to conduct a limited examination of uncertainties

in projections of future regional climate by regional and global climate models; and to

create greater collaboration between U.S., Canadian, and European climate modeling

groups to leverage the diverse modeling capability across these nations.

Famine EarlyWarning System Network.The efforts of USAID’s Famine Early

Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to provide short- and long-term climate

forecasting in the developing world is helping to enhance the adaptive capacity of

developing countries to climate variability and change. For instance, in August 2005,

FEWS NET released a report, Recent Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia and Equatorial

Subtropical Eastern Africa, that demonstrated how warming in the Indian Ocean and

changes in the monsoonal circulation pattern could reduce rainfall across large areas

of the Greater Horn of Africa.This information will allow development agencies and

regional and local institutions to direct appropriate resources and support toward

strengthening the adaptive capacity of affected groups and the food production systems

upon which they depend.This work relates closely to CCSP Goal 5, focus 5.2.

Radio and Internet for the Communication of Hydro-Meteorological and

Climate Information for Development.The USAID Office of Foreign Disaster

Assistance and NOAA have supported the Radio and Internet for the Communication

of Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Information for Development (RANET) program

in order to improve remote community access to and use of hydro-meteorological and

climate information such as forecasts, observations, and warnings. RANET is an

international collaboration of meteorological services and nongovernmental partners

to develop communication tools and networks appropriate for rural and

resource-poor communities.The program integrates a variety of satelliteand terrestrial-based communication technologies, and the networks

RANET establishes help national agencies receive critical information

from regional and international partners.These networks also enable

national meteorological services and related agencies to disseminate their

own information to remote communities in their country. RANET currently

works in Africa,Asia, and the Pacific (see <www.ranetproject.net>).

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2007
BILATERAL COOPERATION IN

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

In June 2001, President Bush committed the United States to developing with our

international partners an effective and science-based response to the issue of climate

change.Today the United States remains committed to working with others, including

both developed and developing country partners, to promote cooperative and

collaborative approaches to address the global challenge of climate change.

To that end, DOS is leading a major interagency effort to advance international

cooperation in climate change science and technology. Since June 2001, the United

States has launched bilateral climate partnerships with 15 countries and regional

organizations that, combined with the United States, account for almost 80% of global

greenhouse gas emissions. Partnerships have been established with Australia, Brazil,

Canada, China, Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala,

Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), the European Union, Germany, India, Italy, Japan,

Mexico, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, and South Africa.

These bilateral initiatives seek to build on key elements of CCSP and CCTP, including

research, observations, data management and distribution, and capacity building.

Substantive project-level work plans are now in place with each of these countries.

Successful joint projects have been initiated in areas such as climate change science;

clean and advanced energy technologies; carbon capture, storage, and sequestration;

and policy approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The United States is also

assisting key developing countries in efforts to build the scientific and technological

capacity needed to address climate change.

Over the coming year, two key objectives for the bilateral activities will be continued

advancement of results-oriented programs and the fostering of substantive policy

dialogs within all 15 of the bilateral climate change partnerships. In order to broaden

U.S. cooperative efforts to advance a practical and effective global response to climate

change, the United States will expand outreach and support to the developing country

community, utilizing a regional approach where feasible.

U.S.-India Bilateral Stakeholder Meeting. EPA sponsored a stakeholder

workshop in India to bring together U.S. and Indian researchers and decisionmakers

to examine possible adaptation strategies for coping with climate change, variability,

and natural disasters.The project grew out of the initiation of the U.S.-India climate

bilateral agreement.The workshop constitutes the contribution of the EPA’s Office of

Research and Development to the U.S. Government’s climate bilateral activities with

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India. EPA and NOAA have the lead within CCSP for research on the impacts of

climate change and on adaptive response.

The workshop was held in New Delhi on 5-7 January 2006, and brought together

stakeholders from the science and management communities to engage in informationsharing on the effects of, and anticipatory adaptation to, climate change and variability;

to develop an understanding of the roles and responsibilities among various government

and nongovernmental actors in the area of adaptation to climate variability and disaster

response; and to develop specific recommendations for further investigations by

Indian researchers and for pilot implementation activities.

ADDITIONAL CLIMATE-RELATED INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES

International PolarYear. IPY will be an intense, coordinated campaign of polar

observations, research, and analysis that will be multidisciplinary in scope and

international in participation. IPY will use today’s powerful research tools, such as

high-powered computers, automated observatories, satellite-based remote sensing,

autonomous vehicles, and genomics, to better understand the key roles of the polar

regions in global processes. IPY 2007-2008 will be fundamentally broader than the

IPYs held in 1882-1883 and 1932-1933 or the International GeophysicalYear of

1957-1958.This IPY will explicitly incorporate multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary

studies, including biological, ecological, and social science elements.

A goal of IPY 2007-2008 is to undertake projects that any single nation could not

normally achieve.The polar regions—both the Arctic and the Antarctic—are inherently

international terrain, both because of the many nations who share these regions and

because what happens in these regions affects nations around the globe.The science

challenges we face far exceed the capability of any one nation, so international

collaboration is expected to be a key component of IPY projects. It is hoped that the

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international collaborations started during IPY will build relationships and understanding

that will bring long-term benefits.

IPY also provides an opportunity to think beyond traditional disciplinary constraints

toward a new level of integrated, cooperative science. In addition, IPY will serve as a

mechanism to attract and develop a new generation of scientists and engineers with

the versatility to tackle complex global issues. IPY is an opportunity to organize an

exciting range of education and outreach activities designed to excite and engage the

public, with a presence in classrooms around the world and in the media in varied and

innovative formats.

The International Group of Funding Agencies for

Global Change Research.The United States, through

its membership in the International Group of Funding

Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA), engages

representatives from 20 national funding agencies with

responsibility for funding global change research in

discussions related to funding climate and global change

research.Through annual plenary meetings, regular steering

committee and staff group meetings, and other activities,

member agencies regularly exchange information and

views regarding global change research programs, new

initiatives, research infrastructure, and related issues.

Topics of mutual interest are identified and solutions determined and implemented

through the relevant national processes, and, in some cases, through coordinated

international efforts. One such topic that IGFA is currently addressing is the connection

between global environmental change and development-oriented research.The United

States has chaired IGFA for the past 2 years.

The Atmospheric Brown Cloud Program. U.S. scientists are participating in an

initial field experiment this year centered around the Maldivian Atmospheric Brown

Cloud Program observatory, which is co-funded by NSF, NOAA, NASA, and the

Government of the Maldive Islands. If successful, this Maldives Autonomous

Unmanned AerialVehicles (AUAV) Campaign will be the first time three AUAVs are

flown simultaneously above, within, and below clouds in a polluted environment (the

Indian Ocean) to collect concurrent aerosol and cloud microphysical data, aerosol

chemistry data, meteorological data, and radiation data so that the indirect effect of

aerosols on cloud radiative properties can be calculated. Scientists expect to analyze

the field data in 2007.

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African Network of Earth System Science. Building on the success of its

September 2005 workshop assessing needs and opportunities for regional cooperation

on global change research, theAfrican Network of Earth System Science (AFRICANESS)

intends to provide a regional platform for the study of global environmental change.

This has the objective of enabling African scientists to communicate more effectively

and set priorities and agendas for research in Africa. It will also allowAfrican scientists

to better coordinate and communicate with the rest of the world.An organizing

committee with extensive regional representation has been established. In its initial

efforts,AFRICANESS will focus on water and climate modeling, desertification, land

degradation, biodiversity and food security, health and pollution, and marine

ecosystems.

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APPENDIX

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE

PROGRAM PARTICIPATING

AGENCIES
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APPENDIX

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

PARTICIPATING AGENCIES

The following pages present information about the contributions to the CCSP of each

of the program’s participating agencies:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Department of Commerce / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(DOC/NOAA)

• Department of Defense (DOD)

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior / U.S. Geological Survey (DOI/USGS)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department ofTransportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

Principal Areas of Focus, Program Highlights for FY 2007, and Related Research are

summarized for each agency.
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service (CSREES)

Economic Research Service (ERS)

Forest Service (FS)

Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

Principal Areas of Focus

USDA conducts and sponsors a broad range of research that supports the CCSP.Areas of emphasis

include evaluating environmental changes that pose risks to natural resources, forestry, and agriculture;

assessing their likelihood, consequences, and potential responses; estimating the contribution of

forestry and agricultural activities as drivers of environmental change; identifying processes that can be

managed; and developing approaches in which agriculture and forestry can help reduce net greenhouse

gas emissions. USDA’s research program seeks to determine the significance of terrestrial systems in

the global carbon cycle, to promote the capture and use of methane emitted from livestock waste

facilities for on-farm power generation, to assess the potential of bioenergy as a substitute for fossil

fuels, to identify agricultural and forestry activities that can help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations

and increase carbon sequestrations, to quantify the risks and benefits arising from environmental

changes to agricultural lands and forests, and to develop management practices that can adapt to the

effects of global change, including potential beneficial and adverse effects. USDA is the lead agency

responsible for preparing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, “The Effects of Climate Change

on Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, andWater Resources.” USDA intends to complete production of

this report by the end of 2007. USDA is also partnering with other agencies on other synthesis and

assessment products identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan. For example, USDA agencies have

contributed substantially to the development of Synthesis and Assessment Report 2.2, “North American

Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle.”

Program Highlights for FY 2007

ARS’s national program on global change continues to address carbon cycle and carbon storage, trace

gas emissions and sinks, impacts of environmental changes on agricultural systems, and feedbacks

among agricultural systems, weather systems, and the water cycle.A focus of the program is building a

scientific knowledge base that will enable producers, land managers, and strategic decisionmakers to

adapt to climate change, and to mitigate contributions of agricultural systems to factors contributing to

climatic change. Infrastructure to measure greenhouse gas emissions from different tillage systems at

different locations across the country will continue gathering data that will provide insights into

agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and into soil carbon sequestration.The effects of elevated

atmospheric carbon dioxide on plants will continue to be investigated, as will the hydrological response

to climate change, such as drought, that may affect soil water availability for agriculture and other water

supplies. Environmentally friendly and economically feasible alternatives to the use of stratospheric

ozone-depleting methyl bromide are being developed as a treatment to control pests.ARS will continue

to help develop and take note of guidance offered by interagency working groups to ensure that
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research provides relevant and significant contributions to the understanding of global change and its

impact on the Nation’s ability to produce food and fiber and to protect natural resources.

CSREES continues to support the USDA Ultraviolet-B Monitoring and Research Network Program.

This program provides information on the geographical distribution and temporal trends of UV-B

radiation in the United States.This information is critical to the assessment of potential impacts of

increasing ultraviolet radiation levels on agricultural crops and forests.The program consists of both a

research and climatological network.The research network provides state-of-the-art, high-resolution

spectroradiometers to six sites, with cross-disciplinary use of the data.The climatological network uses

less sophisticated instrumentation and will eventually total between 30 to 40 monitoring stations. Sites

included in the research network enhance opportunity for collaborative research, and provide calibration

benchmarks for the USDA climatological network as well as other CCSP agency ultraviolet radiation

research efforts. CSREES continues to support global change research through the National Research

Initiative (NRI) Competitive Grants Program and formula-funded programs. NRI includes programs for

carbon and nutrient cycles, air and water quality, land-use and -cover change, ecosystems, agricultural

waste management, and invasive species research—spanning forest, rangeland, and agricultural

ecosystems. Formula funds received through the Hatch and McIntire-Stennis Acts fund climate-related

research at the land-grant universities and colleges and at multi-state institutions and state agricultural

research experiment stations. CSREES is using the CCSP Strategic Plan in formulating priorities under

the NRI program and in shaping specific grant announcements for research, education, and extension

projects.

Forest Service research is (i) expanding understanding of the global carbon cycle in forest and rangeland

ecosystems, and the consequences and feedback from the management and use of these ecosystems as

they interact with the atmosphere; (ii) improving accuracy and ease of analyses of U.S. forest carbon

inventory, and other monitoring and analysis systems for carbon dioxide; (iii) enhancing understanding

of climate variability on plant species migration on forests and rangelands; (iv) enhancing understanding

of climate change impacts on forest health; (v) accelerating the development and deployment of

management systems that reduce and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in costeffective and environmentally beneficial ways; (vi) integrating observation and monitoring networks with

process studies to better understand, forecast, and manage relationships between forest and rangelands

and climate; (vii) accelerating the development of management technologies to increase carbon

sequestration, provide fossil fuel offsets, enhance productivity, and maintain environmental quality; and

(viii) providing integrated prediction models of forest carbon dynamics.Active forest management can

enhance carbon sequestration by increasing the removal rate of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

and by storing carbon in living biomass, soil, litter, dead wood, and wood products, in addition to other

benefits. Critical outcomes of this research include accelerated development, demonstration, and

deployment of management systems that reduce and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and sequester

carbon in a cost-effective and environmentally sound manner.

Related Research

USDA remains active in the Climate ChangeTechnology Program (CCTP) and related research efforts.

The Forest Service, NRCS,ARS, CSREES, and the Rural Development mission area support improved

measurement and accounting of greenhouse gases from agriculture and forestry systems, as well as
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energy initiatives and renewable energy systems such as biofuels and biomass-related research and

development. NRCS and the Forest Service are cooperating in development of web-based assessment

tools for agricultural producers to account for benefits accruing on carbon fluxes and greenhouse gas

emission from conservation practices. In addition, NRCS and the Forest Service are developing new

measurement technologies, analytical techniques, and information management systems related to spatial

carbon distributions. USDA also is filling gaps in ecosystem information by continuing to collect data

on land use, resource conditions, and climate through the National Resources Inventory, the Forest

Inventory and Analysis Program, the Soil Climate Analysis Network, and the SnowpackTelemetry

system.These networks provide critical data needs on the status and condition of land use in the United

States in support of CCSP research.
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE /

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Principal Areas of Focus

NOAA’s climate mission is: “To understand and describe climate variability and change to enhance

society’s ability to plan and respond.”This is an end-to-end endeavor focused on providing

decisionmakers a predictive understanding of the global climate system and to “translate” data so the

public can incorporate the information and products into their decisions.These outcomes are achieved

through implementation of a global observing system, focused research to understand key climate

processes, improved modeling capabilities, and the development and delivery of climate information

services. Specific objectives follow:

• Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis,

and data stewardship

• Reduce uncertainty in the information on atmospheric composition and feedbacks that contribute

to changes in Earth’s climate

• Provide climate forecasts for multiple time scales to enable regional and national managers to

better plan for the impacts of climate variability, and climate assessments and projections to

support policy decisions with objective and accurate climate change information

• Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems

• Provide information and tools to support decisionmakers in improving management of risks to the

U.S. economy in sectors and areas that are sensitive to impacts from weather and climate.

NOAA relies on its Federal, academic, private, and international partners to achieve its objectives.

These objectives are implemented through five distinct, yet integrated, programs: Climate

Observation and Analysis, Climate Forcing, Climate Predictions and Projections, Climate and

Ecosystems, and Regional Decision Support.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

Observations and Analysis

The objective of the Climate Observations and Analysis (COA) Program is to describe and understand

the state of the climate system through integrated observations, data management, and analysis.The

COA Program is organized under three capabilities: Observations (atmosphere and oceans, including

the Arctic), Data Management, and Analysis of the Climate System.These capabilities taken together

increase the value and utility of observations, improve the performance of models, and reduce the

uncertainty of predictions.A major objective of the COA Program is to contribute to the national and

global objectives outlined in the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program, as well as

NOAA’s Strategic Plan and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 10-Year

Implementation Plan.

Activities in FY 2007 will:

• Reduce uncertainties in sea-level change, sea surface temperature, and estimates of changes in the

carbon inventory in the global ocean
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• Document the ocean’s heat storage and transport, and changes in the ocean’s contributions to the

global water cycle

• Via aircraft, deploy drifting data buoys in the path of approaching hurricanes to measure the ocean’s

heat energy potential

• Assess and address the impact on the climate observing system of changes in the future National

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

• Retrofit the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Upper Air Network sites in developing

nations and continue serving as the GCOS Lead Center for the GCOS Surface Network

• Working with Canada, deploy an atmospheric observatory in northeastern Canada to provide highresolution characterization of clouds and aerosols, and of incoming and outgoing radiation

• Collect data to understand changes in the temperature and salinity structure of the ocean beneath

sea ice, and the biotic response to physical changes (rapid warming and diminished ice cover)

• Implement the “Near-Term Opportunities” outlined in the U.S. Group on Earth Observations’

Strategic Plan—that is, disaster warning, global land cover, sea level, drought, air quality, and

enhanced data management.

Climate Forcing

The objective of the Climate Forcing Program is to better quantify the information on atmospheric

composition and feedbacks that contribute to changes in Earth’s climate. Specifically, the program seeks

to provide the understanding needed to link “emissions” to the “radiative forcing of climate change” for

science-based decision support.The Climate Forcing Program is providing research (i) to understand

atmospheric and oceanic processes, both natural and human-related, that affect carbon dioxide trends;

(ii) to quantify the climate roles of the radiatively important trace atmospheric species such as fineparticle (aerosols), ozone, and chemically active greenhouse gases; and (iii) to understand and assess

stratospheric ozone depletion. Research may be directly applied to climate projection and to policy

decisions regarding carbon management, and provides timely and adequate information needed to

broaden the suite of non-carbon options for addressing changes in climate forcing.

Activities in FY 2007 will:

• Contribute to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) and the international assessment regarding the depletion of the ozone layer

• Involve participation in a multi-institutional intensive field program that will investigate scientific

questions common to both climate and air quality (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric

Composition and Climate Study)

• Analyze ozone profiles measured across mid-latitude North America during a 2004 climate field

study, with the aim of estimating how much ozone is formed over the continent in the summer

• Investigate aerosol distributions and their warming and cooling effects via the Oklahoma City Field

Study, planned for the summer of 2007

• Continue the carbon atmospheric observing system across the Nation in support of research to

reduce uncertainty in U.S. carbon sources and sinks

• Continue to develop and test methods for regional and continental estimates of carbon sources and

sinks via an intensive field investigation centered on the mid-continent region of North America

• Continue to re-measure key ocean properties along cross-sections in the South Atlantic and North

Pacific that were last measured in 1989 and 1991, respectively, via the Repeat Hydrography Program

• Design new sensors to measure carbon dioxide exchange across the air-sea interface for use on

autonomous platforms such as floats, gliders, surface drifters, and autonomous underwater vehicles.
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Predictions and Projections

The objectives of the Climate Predictions and Projections Program are to provide climate forecasts for

multiple time scales to enable regional and national managers to better plan for the impacts of climate

variability, and to provide climate assessments and projections to support policy decisions with objective

and accurate climate change information.This program provides the Nation with a seamless suite of

environmental forecasts (i.e., outlooks and projections) on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and

multidecadal time scales and on regional, national, and global spatial scales.The global environment

includes not only the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, but also

land/ocean biogeochemical processes, ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality.To achieve its

objectives, this program maintains a suite of operational climate outlooks and strives to implement the

next-generation operational climate outlooks and assessments by improving climate models, improving

forecast generation techniques, and maintaining real-time climate monitoring data sets.

Activities in FY 2007 will:

• Address significant uncertainties associated with the water cycle through a study that comprehensively

addresses the water budget within DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern

Great Plains site

• Hone advanced ensemble multi-model prediction techniques for surface and subsurface hydrological

parameters, with the objective of transferring or transitioning the improved techniques for

operational application in the seasonal/interannual time scale

• Continue research on extended drought causes via monitoring, analysis, prediction, and support to

drought information systems such as the National Integrated Drought Information System

• Build upon results from the 2006 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis campaign.

Climate and Ecoystems

The objective of the Climate and Ecosystems Program is to understand and predict the consequences

of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems.The program accomplishes this by coupling

observations with information from retrospective and process studies in order to detect the impacts of

climate on marine ecosystems and build an understanding of climate-ecosystem relationships.The goal

of the program is to develop forecasts of changes in fishery, coastal, and coral reef resources in response

to climatic changes.The forecasts provide users and managers of ocean and coastal resources the

information they require to adapt to changing climate regimes. In FY 2007, a collaborative research

program will synthesize field and model information in the Northeast Pacific to better understand and

predict responses of these ecosystems to climate change.

Regional Decision Support

The Regional Decision Support (RDS) Program provides information and tools to support

decisionmakers in improving management of risks to the U.S. economy—and taking advantage of

opportunities—in sectors and areas that are sensitive to impacts from weather and climate. Effective

incorporation of climate information provides decisionmakers with the data, analysis, and new knowledge

that can help them achieve the best possible outcome with regard to a varying climate.This includes the

socioeconomic effects of drought, El Niño and La Niña events, sea-level rise, and other high-impact

climate events. RDS addresses an increased demand for traditional climate services, such as data and

forecast dissemination and customer support, as well as identifying and satisfying new requirements for

decision support in sectors such as water, fire, emergency preparedness, health, transportation, energy,

coastal, urban, and ecosystem management. Demand for increased services is met through research
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into decisionmaker needs and prototype product development, transition of research products into

application and operations, and operational delivery and support of climate services.

Activities in FY 2007 will:

• Produce the following CCSP synthesis and assessment products slated for publication in 2007

– “North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle” (2.2)

– “Aerosol Properties andTheir Impacts on Climate” (2.3)

– “Climate Projections based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived Radiatively ActiveTrace

Gases and Future Climate Impacts of Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols” (3.2)

– “Best-Practice Approaches to Characterize, Communicate, and Incorporate Scientific

Uncertainty in Decisionmaking” (5.2)

– “Decision Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and

Observational Data” (5.3)

• Launch “Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnership” as a new effort to

analyze the social and economic impacts of drought, and the use of climate information in drought

planning

• Transfer research to applications through a competitive program that supports proposals for

transitioning experimentally mature climate tools, methods, and processes from research to

sustained operational delivery of useful climate information, products, and services to local,

regional, national, and international decisionmakers and policymakers.

Related Research

In addition to focused CCSP efforts, related activities include coastal and coral reef resources in

response to climatic changes in oceanic water mass distributions, sea-surface temperature, sea-level rise,

and coastal runoff; enhanced prediction and observation systems in support of weather and seasonal to

interannual climate forecasts; determination of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation

over the United States through long-term (50+ years) operation of the U.S. Climate Reference

Network; continued buildout of the Comprehensive Large-Array Storage System to meet the growth in

observational data from satellite and radar systems; and dissemination of global change information.

DOC’s National Institute of Standards andTechnology (NIST) provides measurements and standards

that support accurate and reliable climate observations. NIST also performs calibrations and special

tests of a wide range of instruments and techniques for accurate measurements. NIST provides a wide

array of data and modeling tools that provide key support to developers and users of complex

prediction models.
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DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Defense—while not supporting dedicated global change research—continues a

history of participation in the CCSP through sponsored research that concurrently satisfies national

security requirements and stated goals of the CCSP.All data and research results are routinely made

available to the civil science community. DOD science and technology investments are coordinated and

reviewed through the Defense Reliance process and published annually in the Defense Science and

Technology Strategy, the Basic Research Plan, the Defense Technology Area Research Plan, and the Joint

Warfighting Science and Technology Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

Satellite Sensors and Observations

DOD will fund 50% of the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

(NPOESS), as a result of the convergence of national sensing suites. NPOESS will monitor global

environmental conditions, and collect and disseminate data related to weather, atmosphere, oceans,

land, and near-space environment.The NPOESS Program is managed by the tri-agency Integrated

Program Office run by DOC, DOD, and NASA.

Global Observations and Models

The Navy is a principal member of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, incorporating the

Integrated Ocean Observing System and associated data management and communications, the Global

Ocean Observation System, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), and the

National Federation of Regional Associations (<http://www.ocean.us/> and <http://usnfra.org>).

This broad partnership of institutions collaborates in the development and demonstration of integrated

ocean observations systems, data management systems, and eddy-resolving, real-time global and basinscale ocean prediction systems.As part of GODAE, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

runs efficiently on a variety of massively parallel computers and includes sophisticated techniques for

assimilation of satellite altimeter sea surface height and temperature data, as well as in situ temperature,

salinity, and float displacement.The goal of this project is to develop and implement a comprehensive

data management and distribution strategy that allows easy and efficient access to HYCOM-based

ocean prediction system outputs to coastal and regional modeling sites, to the wider oceanographic and

scientific community including climate and ecosystem researchers, and the general public especially

students in middle and high schools.This is to be accomplished through a data sharing system using

existing open source software packages to distribute ocean prediction system data via the Internet.The

HYCOM Data Sharing System is built upon two existing software components: the Open Project for a

Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) and the Live Access Server (LAS). OPeNDAP provides

uniform binary-level access to scientific data on the Internet (see <http://www.opendap.org>).

The Coupled Boundary Layers Air-SeaTransfer Defense Research Initiative focuses on processes that

occur in the oceanic and atmospheric wave boundary layers (i.e., regions influenced by ocean surface

waves).This Office of Naval Research program combines observational and modeling components in all
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of its investigations.These investigations will focus on processes that couple the turbulent atmospheric

and oceanic boundary layers across the interface through the exchange of momentum, mass, and heat.

The observational components include in situ investigations of ocean-atmospheric turbulence and mean

flow from fixed towers and moorings, remote sensing of 2- and 3-D structure of the boundary layers

and ocean surface, appropriate surface wave measurements with particular emphasis on small-scale and

breaking waves, and Autonomous UnderwaterVehicle and aircraft-based measurements.

The Monterey Bay 06 (MB 06) experiment will build on earlier work of the Autonomous Ocean

Sampling Network I and II programs to demonstrate the capability to coordinate a diverse collection of

manned and unmanned observing platforms within the context of data-assimilation models to form an

effective ocean observing and undersea monitoring system. MB 06 is an integrated experiment that

involves the interaction and coordination of four related but distinct programs:Adaptive Sampling and

Prediction (ASAP), Undersea Persistent Surveillance (UPS, or UPS/PLUSNet),Assessing the Effects of

Sub-Mesoscale Ocean Parameterizations (AESOP), and Layered Organization in the Coastal Ocean

(LOCO).

Polar Regions Research

A priority in the CCSP research plan has been the polar and sub-polar regions, which have exhibited

more rapid changes than the lower latitudes.The U.S.Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering

Laboratory (CRREL) is America’s lead Federal laboratory for polar and sub-polar research.The CRREL

research program responds to the needs of the military, but much of the research also benefits the

civilian sector and is funded by non-military customers such as NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, and State

governments. DOD research has examined impacts of climate change on retreating Arctic sea ice—

defining the requirements for U.S. Coast Guard icebreaking ships for the next 30 years. Satellite data

show that the extent of Arctic sea ice has decreased by about 10%, and the sonar data collected by U.S.

Navy submarines in the Arctic between 1957 and 2000 show the average ice thickness has decreased

between 33 and 42%. CRREL and the University of Alaska are developing a web-accessible Alaska

Engineering Design Information System—an analytic toolkit for engineers that presents a broad array

of geospatial terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric environmental data in a Geographic Information

System.

Related Research

Other DOD-sponsored research and supporting infrastructure, not described above, also contribute to

observing, understanding, and predicting environmental processes related to global change.Associated

research programs include theoretical studies and observations of solar phenomena, monitoring and

modeling of unique features in the middle and upper atmosphere, terrestrial and marine environmental

quality research, and energy conservation measures. DOD’s continued investment in environmental

infrastructure—such as the Oceanographic ResearchVessel Fleet, and the various services’ operational

oceanographic and meteorological computational centers—will continue to provide data and services

useful to CCSP.
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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Principal Areas of Focus

Research supported by DOE’s Office of Science is focused on the effects of energy production and use

on the global climate system, primarily through studies of climate response to changes in greenhouse

gas and aerosol concentrations. Research covers three program areas: 1) climate change modeling,

2) climate forcing, and 3) climate change response.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

DOE will continue support of climate change research at its National Laboratories and other public and

private research institutions, including universities. In support of CCSP, the DOE Office of Science’s

Climate Change Research Program will continue to provide the data and predictive understanding that

will enable objective, scientifically rigorous assessments of the potential for, and consequences of,

human-induced climate change

Climate Change Modeling

DOE continues to develop, improve, evaluate, and apply fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land

surface general circulation models (GCMs) that simulate climatic variability and change over decadal to

centennial time scales.As one of its contributions to the suite of synthesis and assessment products

(SAPs) being prepared by CCSP, DOE will lead the effort on SAP 3.1, “Climate Models:An Assessment

of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications.”

In FY 2007, DOE researchers will participate in the analysis of multi-model ensemble runs under

various forcing scenarios as part of the U.S. contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, scheduled for release in 2007. IPCC model simulations

from major national and international high-end modeling centers are currently archived at Lawrence

Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)/Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

(PCMDI), and made accessible to the climate research community. Under the DOE-wide Scientific

Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) initiative, DOE will support model development of

the CCSM to incorporate atmospheric chemistry and coupled biogeochemistry, in addition to improved

physics and dynamics. DOE will also continue ongoing development of high-resolution comprehensive

coupled GCMs that incorporate more accurate and verified representations of clouds and other

important climatic processes. DOE will continue support of innovative approaches to climate model

development—for example, the geodesic grid model intended to lead to a prototype climate model

that could potentially overcome some of the problems and limitations of current generation climate

models.

Climate Forcing

Collection and analysis of data from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud and

RadiationTest Bed (CART) sites will continue in FY 2007 to improve understanding of the radiative

transfer processes in the atmosphere and to formulate better parameterizations of these processes,

especially cloud and aerosol effects for use in climate models. DOE will also report on results of two
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major international campaigns:TropicalWarm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) and

the 1-year deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility in Niger,Africa.The latter is part of the field phase

of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) to obtain atmospheric and radiation data

on meteorological conditions ranging from deep, tropical convective clouds in the humid tropical air

masses prevalent in the wet season to the aerosol-laden dry air masses found during the dry season.

AMMA field data will provide unique opportunities to evaluate and improve the parameterization

schemes used in climate models across a wide range of meteorological conditions.TheTWP-ICE was

conducted around the ARM site in Darwin,Australia, and focused on the effects of cirrus clouds on the

transfer of radiation in the atmosphere.TWP-ICE employed multiple research aircraft and balloonborne meteorological sensors from an array of sites to measure cloud properties and their impacts on

the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere throughout the storm life cycle as well as the atmospheric

state. Data from this experiment will be used to both evaluate and test how well existing models

simulate cloud properties and to improve the modeling of cloud properties and their effects on the

transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. In 2007, the mobile facility will be deployed to the Black Forest

in Germany to participate in the Initiation of Convection and the Microphysical Properties of Clouds in

OrographicTerrain (AMF + COPS).The region of deployment can be characterized by significant

orographic precipitation with most of the summertime precipitation being convective.The experiment

is designed to improve the prediction of precipiation in this environment. In 2007,ARM will conduct

an experiment to study the impact of land surface conditions on continental cumulus convection.This

experiment—the Cloud LAnd Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC)—will last 1-3 months and will

straddle the winter wheat harvest when large changes in the land surface lead to large changes in the

surface albedo, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux. By DOE’s invitation, CLASIC will be developed

further as an integrated, interagency project—contingent on FY 2007 funding and on expressions of

multi-agency interest.

DOE’s Atmospheric Science Program will continue research in FY 2007 to reduce uncertainties in

aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Research will focus specifically on atmospheric loading and

geographical distribution of aerosols, on the properties that influence their scattering and absorption of

radiation, their influence on the microphysical properties of clouds, and the processes that influence

aerosol loading, geographical distribution, and properties. In FY 2007 a campaign will be conducted, in

conjunction with the ARM Program, to examine interactions of aerosols with fair-weather cumulus

clouds.Analysis of data from prior field studies will continue, principally from a FY 2005 campaign that

examined aerosol influences on marine stratus and a FY 2006 campaign conducted in and around

Mexico City to examine the properties and processes of aerosols emanating from a large metropolitan

area. Data from the campaign will be used to characterize changes in aerosol composition, size

distribution, light scattering coefficient, absorption coefficient, optical depth, soot-specific absorption,

and radiative fluxes at the surface. Results will be utilized to develop or improve detailed models of

aerosol processes required by the climate modeling community.

DOE’s carbon cycle research will continue to improve understanding of the role and importance of

terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. Research in FY 2007 will address the questions and

elements described in Chapter 7 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. DOE’sTerrestrial Carbon Processes (TCP)

research will continue to contribute to the North American Carbon Program (NACP) through support

of experiments, observations, and modeling of atmospheric CO2 and the terrestrial carbon cycle. In

FY 2006,TCP was formally reviewed, and it was recommended that the program continue to focus

on the AmeriFlux network of observations, and that experimental, modeling, and synthesis research
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continue to provide fundamental information for understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle, including

exchange of CO2 between terrestrial systems and the atmosphere.Temporal and spatial observations of

gross and net carbon dioxide fluxes, and real-time information on ecosystem carbon states and sinks,

will be made available to researchers that are investigating regional CO2 exchange, continental-scale

carbon sinks and sources, and carbon cycle-climate relationships. DOE will also support the NACP

strategy of a model-based comparison of “bottom-up” (distributed ecosystem models driven by land

surface and meteorological information) and “top-down” (inferring spatially distributed surface fluxes

from atmospheric measurements) approaches to estimating ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes for

different regions of the United States. DOE will provide information on biogeochemical, physiological

responses and terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks related to climate change as part of joint carbon cycleclimate change research to improve simulation models.

Climate Change Response

DOE will continue to design, implement, and maintain large-scale and long-term experimental field

manipulations of environmental factors affected by energy production in important North American

ecosystems.This includes support of the Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experimental facilities for

study of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide

(and in some cases ozone).The goal is to understand, and be able to predict, effects of environmental

change and variability on the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.The research focuses

on the physiology, growth, and reproduction of plants and microbes; nutrient and water cycling in

ecosystems; plant community dynamics; plant-microbe interactions; and acclimation and adaptation of

plants, microbes, and whole ecosystems to environmental change and variability.

Ongoing experimental research will be continued in FY 2007, including field manipulations of

temperature, precipitation and soil moisture, carbon dioxide concentration, ozone concentration, and/

or enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition in a range of terrestrial ecosystems, including boreal forest,

arid shrublands and desert, temperate grasslands, temperate woodlands, and temperate deciduous and

evergreen forests. Such experiments will provide the data and information needed to evaluate (test) the

ability of ecological models to realistically predict effects of environmental change and variability on

terrestrial ecosystems; such models form the basis of most assessments of potential effects of

environmental change on ecosystems.The research initiative implemented in FY 2004 dealing with

“scaling” in ecological systems will also be continued in FY 2007.This initiative will continue to examine

how quantitative information obtained at the level of macromolecules (e.g., genes and enzymes) can be

used to understand and predict how processes and states of whole terrestrial ecosystems would be

affected both directly and indirectly by natural and human-induced environmental changes, such as

climatic changes caused by energy production. Ecosystems that will be studied include forest,

shrubland, grassland, and crop.

The DOE Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Research Program will continue to support

research that examines and models global economies, technologies that emit greenhouse gases, and

natural systems associated with climate change.These studies help provide understanding of the relative

efficiencies and impacts of potential mitigation strategies. In FY 2007, the two large integrated assessment

models funded by the program will improve their representation of renewable energy derived from

biological sources.The portrayal of uncertainty in emission scenarios will also be studied to help identify

methods that represent important variability with a small number of alternative scenarios. In FY 2007,

research will develop a new modeling tool to assess the effects of technological change in agriculture
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and forestry on the future path of global carbon sequestration.The research will assess the influence of

technology on land uses, explicitly assessing carbon flows to develop estimates of future carbon emission

or sequestration. In FY 2007, research will generate empirical information on the direct costs and

benefits of research and development (R&D) on low-emission technologies as well as the “external”

benefits (“spillover effects”) from R&D.The key question is whether an increase in climate R&D

represents new R&D spending, or whether some (or all) of the additional climate R&D comes at the

expense of other R&D.

DOE will also continue support of its Global Change Education program in FY 2007, including support

of undergraduate and graduate students through the DOE Summer Undergraduate Research

Experience (SURE) and the DOE Graduate Research Environmental Fellowships (GREFs). Support

will also be continued for the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) to enable it to

respond to data and information requests from users all over the world who have a need for data on,

for example, greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations.

Related Research

DOE plays a major role in carbon sequestration research to reduce atmospheric concentrations of energyrelated greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, and their net emissions to the atmosphere.The

research builds on, but is not part of, the CCSP. It focuses on both developing the scientific information

needed to enhance the natural sequestration of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial

systems, and assessing the potential environmental consequences and ancillary benefits of that enhanced

sequestration. It also includes research to develop biotechnological approaches for sequestering carbon

either before or after it is emitted to the atmosphere. Funding for DOE’s carbon sequestration research

is part of the Climate ChangeTechnology Program (CCTP). CCTP also provides related research funding

to support a balanced and diversified portfolio of advanced technology R&D, focusing on energyefficiency enhancements; low-GHG-emission energy supply technologies; carbon capture, storage, and

sequestration; and technologies to reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases.Together, CCSP and CCTP will

help lay the foundation for future progress.Advances in the climate change sciences under CCSP can be

expected to improve understanding about climate change and its impacts. Similarly, advances in climate

change technology mitigation under CCTP can be expected to bring forth an expanded array of

advanced technology options at a lower cost that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

National Cancer Institute (NCI)

National Eye Institute (NEI)

National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS)

National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Health and Human Services supports a broad portfolio of research related to

environmental health and the health effects of global change. Included in the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program is research supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that focuses on

exposure to ultraviolet (UV) and near-UV radiation.The principal objectives of the four NIH

institutes supporting this research include an increased understanding of the effects of UV and nearUV radiation exposure on target organs (e.g., eyes, skin, immune system), the molecular changes

and genetic susceptibilities that lead to these effects, and the development of strategies to prevent

the initiation or promotion of disease before it is clinically defined.

In addition to UV and near-UV radiation research, HHS also supports other research related to the

health effects of global change. For example, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

(NIEHS) supports research on the health effects of 1) air pollution and temperature, 2) agricultural

chemicals, and 3) materials used in new technologies to mitigate or adapt to climate change. In

addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is engaged in a number of activities

related to climate change, such as emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Such related research

is growing in importance.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

The NIEHS program supports grants and intramural projects that investigate the effects of UV exposure

on the immune system, aging process, sensitive tissues such as the retina and skin, and methods to

reduce these harmful effects. Examples of research include projects that will characterize the DNAdamaging and mutagenic properties of UV-A radiation, a component of the solar spectrum that has

been linked to melanoma, then attempt to find a molecular link between exposure to sunlight and

melanoma.

The NationalToxicology Program (NTP) funded and operated by NIEHS is carrying out a systematic

analysis of commercially available sunscreens to characterize several nanoscale metal oxides (e.g.,

titanium, zinc) currently used with regard to their dermal penetration and photocatalytic action.

Careful attention is being paid to determining critical aspects of size, surface area and chemistry,

crystallinity, and biopersistence in relation to both dermal penetration and potential for toxicity in the

presence or absence of simulated solar light.

The National Eye Institute (NEI) supports studies on the impacts of UV radiation on the eye (retinal

damage as well as corneal capacity).A major initiative is underway to determine how and why eye
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cataract develops and to search for ways to prevent or slow the progression of cataract, an age-related

eye disease that affects 17-20 million people globally.This project is investigating the role of UV-B

radiation, which has been implicated as a specific risk factor in cataract development.Another important

area of research is the understanding of certain detoxification systems in the eye and how they combat

damage from UV-B radiation.The goal of this effort is to identify drugs that might have therapeutic or

preventative applications. One study is investigating how corneal epithelial cells prevent damage to

their DNA by reactive oxygen species generated by UV light and whether the protection against damage

provided by nuclear ferritin in corneal epithelial cells can be extended to other cell types in which

reactive oxygen species may have deleterious effects.

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) is supporting a wide range of studies to characterize the etiology,

biology, immunology, and pathology of a variety of changes in the skin (morphological effects that

might precede skin cancer), including photoaging, non-melanoma skin cancers, and melanoma caused

by exposure to UV radiation. In addition, NCI is supporting studies to reduce the risk of melanoma and

non-melanoma skin cancer through the development of clinically useful primary and secondary

prevention strategies. One study is developing, implementing, and evaluating solar protection programs

for middle school children.The interventions target school, community, recreation and beach settings,

primary care practices, and parents.The interventions are based on theories that include social influence,

psychological factors, and cognitive decisional factors in adolescence. Other studies are looking at the

role of UV light exposure in the development of second malignant neoplasms in cancer survivors.

The National Institute of Arthritis, Musculoskeletal, and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) supports basic and

clinical research on the effects of UV-A and UV-B radiation on skin. Examples of current studies

include research to better understand how vitamin D3 is made and processed in the skin.These

chemical reactions require ultraviolet radiation.Another study looks at the effects of UV-B radiation on

the stability of cell cycle regulatory proteins and will yield insight into the mechanisms by which UV-B

radiation increases the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer.A third study examines the ability of green

tea polyphenols to protect against UV-B-induced skin cancers through the augmentation of the repair

of UV-damaged DNA. Previous studies in this area of research have included studies on the role of

overexposure to UV light in the development and exacerbation of vitiligo, a pigmentary disorder that

leaves patients with disfiguring white skin patches that increase in size over time.Another patientoriented research project studied the molecular mechanisms for the exaggerated response to UV-B of a

polymorphism that is strongly associated with a photosensitive form of lupus erythematosus.Another

study worked on the effect of UV-R on Langerhans cells, star-shaped cells in the germinative layer of

the epidermis, and on immunity in skin. Using gene array technology, scientists identified 52 genes that

are consistently up-regulated by UV-R.

Related Research

Renewed concern about emerging and reemerging infectious diseases has prompted increased attention

to a variety of insect and tick-borne diseases whose incidence would be affected by environmental

change. One area of research, conducted by CDC, is the use of remote sensing to study ecologic systems

relevant to transmission of specific infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases. Examples of

research by CDC using remote-sensing and other geographic/spatial technologies include studies of

hantavirus, plague, and Chagas disease. Sin Nombre virus, carried by the deer mouse, causes hantavirus
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pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas. Since 1994, CDC has collaborated with local academic

institutions to study the effect of climatic variation, such as that associated with El Niño Southern

Oscillation (ENSO), on changes in population densities of deer mice.The goal of the U.S.-based studies

is to develop a model using satellite imagery to predict increases in risk of HPS at specific locations

across the western United States.These studies have already helped CDC predict and post warnings of

increased disease risk in the southwestern United States.

A CDC-sponsored study of plague in the four corners area of the U.S. Southwest also employs remotesensing technology to develop a predictive model for increased plague transmission in the area. Finally,

CDC is applying GIS and ecological niche analysis using GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set

Prediction), a form of spatial/temporal analysis, to study the eco-epidemiology of Chagas disease in

Guatemala, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, and to improve collaborative efforts aimed at disease

surveillance and control in these regions.

CDC also sponsors broader research related to climate change and infectious diseases. CDC’s Division

ofVector-Borne Infectious Diseases is currently collaborating on studies of how the transmission of

vector-borne diseases may be affected by the environment. Its Guatemala field station is studying the

impact that adverse climatological events, such as El Niño and Hurricane Gilbert, have had on the

transmission dynamics of malaria and other diseases.These catastrophic events create tremendous

changes that can simultaneously create new vector habit, reduce the levels of sanitation, and overwhelm

the ability of the public health system to respond. Other CDC units are collaborating on studies of the

effects of climate change on dengue on the U.S.-Mexico Border.
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DEPARTMENT OFTHE INTERIOR /

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Principal Areas of Focus

DOI/USGS research contributes directly to CCSP strategic goals, principally through studies designed

to understand the interactions between climate, earth surface processes, and ecosystems on time scales

ranging from years to millennia. By combining the expertise of hydrologists, geologists, biologists,

geographers, and remote-sensing scientists within one organization, USGS supports truly interdisciplinary

research in the following major focus areas:

• Studies of climate history and impacts on landscapes and ecosystems

• Hydrologic impacts of climate change

• Carbon cycle science

• Land-use and land-cover changes

• Decision-support research and development.

The goal of global change research at USGS is to improve knowledge and understanding of the Earth’s

past and present climate and environment, the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate, and

the sensitivity and adaptability of natural and managed ecosystems to climate changes.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

Earth Surface Dynamics

The Earth Surface Dynamics program has the following research objectives:

• Document the nature of climatic and environmental change and variability on time scales ranging

from years to millennia.

• Develop fundamental understanding of interactions between climate, earth surface processes, and

marine and terrestrial ecosystems on time scales ranging from years to millennia.

• Seek to understand impacts of climate change and variability on landscapes and marine and

terrestrial systems.

• Model and anticipate the effects of climate change and variability on natural and human systems.

• Provide information on the relative sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of ecosystems,

resources, and regions to climatic change and variability to support land and resource management

and policy decisions.

Geographic Analysis and Monitoring

Research is directed to the understanding of the rates, causes, and consequences of landscape change

over time.This knowledge is used to model processes of landscape change and to forecast future

conditions. Studies are designed to document and understand the nature and causes of changes

occurring on the land surface; to assess the impacts of land surface changes (including urbanization) on

ecosystems, climate variability, biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and human health; and to develop the

best methods to incorporate science findings in the decisionmaking process.
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Hydroclimatology

Research on effects of climate change and variability on the hydrologic cycle focuses on characterizing,

and developing predictive methods related to, the hydroclimatology of North America.This includes

identification of seasonal variations in regional streamflow in relation to atmospheric circulation (for

regional streamflow prediction and flood/drought hazard assessment); the linkage between atmospheric

circulation and snowpack accumulation (for forecasting spring and summer water supply in the western

United States and for flood forecasting), as well as glacier mass balance; and the physical and chemical

variability in riverine and estuarine environments in relation to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic

conditions (to discriminate natural from human-induced effects on such systems). It also includes

documenting the long-term behavior of hydrologic systems in response to past climatic variations and

changes (from decades to hundreds of thousands of years) as well as more recent (decadal) hydrologic

trends.The program maintains an active effort to develop improved representations of terrestrial

hydrologic processes in general circulation and regional climate models. In broad terms, these activities

are aimed at improving statistical and deterministic methods for predicting hydrologic hazards and

related environmental conditions on monthly to interannual time scales.

Carbon Cycle

USGS conducts a broad range of carbon cycle research focused on North America, which includes:

• Assessment of Carbon Stocks and Soil Attributes—Determining the spatial distribution of carbon in

the terrestrial environment in relation to historical natural and human processes, as a basis for

initializing dynamic models of soil carbon. Measuring soil chemistry has focused on the Mississippi

and Delaware River basins, the latter in collaboration with the USDA Forest Service Forest

Inventory and Analysis Program.

• Carbon Sequestration in Sediments—Studying the re-deposition of eroded soils and sediments (and

their associated organic carbon) which sequesters large quantities of carbon, buried at the base of

slopes and in wetlands, riparian areas, and reservoirs.

• Carbon Sequestration inWetlands—Field and laboratory process studies, spatial analysis, and modeling

are being used in wetlands of the Lower Mississippi RiverValley and the Prairie Pothole Region to

quantify the influence of land-use change on carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions

and to identify environmental factors controlling carbon sequestration.These studies will provide

recommendations and decision-support tools to resource managers to maximize carbon sequestration

benefits consistent with DOI goals for restoration of ecosystem services such as habitat, flood storage,

and water quality.

• Landscape Dynamics andVegetation Change—Examining the long-term dynamics of vegetation

change in relation to climate change and variability.A detailed history of vegetation change in the

western United States is being constructed. Past changes are used to model vegetation response to

climatic variables.This knowledge is applied in forecasting the effects of future climate change on

the distribution of vegetation in the western United States.

• Fate of Carbon in Alaskan Landscapes—Expanding process studies and modeling to better understand

both the historic and modern interactions among climate, surface temperature and moisture, fire,

and terrestrial carbon sequestration. Cold region forests (boreal ecosystems) contain large carbon

reserves that are highly susceptible to changes in climate.

• Exchanges of Greenhouse Gases,WaterVapor,and Heat at the Earth’s Surface—Employs field

measurements, remote sensing, and modeling of carbon fluxes to develop estimates of gross primary

productivity, respiration, and net ecosystem exchange at flux tower sites, and uses remotely sensed

data to extrapolate these carbon fluxes to ecoregions.
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Changes in Ecosystems

USGS global change research on ecosystems aims to determine the sensitivity and response of

ecosystems and ecological processes to environmental factors, including existing climate and natural

and anthropogenic impacts, at the local, landscape, regional, and continental level; to assess and predict

how future environmental conditions may affect the structure, function, and long-term viability of

natural and human-impacted ecosystems; and to provide scientific knowledge and technologies needed

for conservation, rehabilitation, and management of sustainable ecosystems. Current USGS ecosystems

research focuses on:

• The relative sensitivity of biological resources and geographic areas of the Nation to global changes

in order to detect early changes and prioritize action

• The causal mechanisms underlying ecosystem responses to global change

• The role of scaling in understanding and managing the spatial and temporal responses of biological

systems to global change

• Development and testing of management options for adapting to the effects of global change and

minimizing undesired effects of global change.

Satellite Data Management and Dissemination

USGS operates and continually enhances the capabilities of the Center for Earth Resources Observation

System (EROS) to serve as the National Satellite Land Remote-Sensing Data Archive, by maintaining

existing data sets, adding new ones, and converting older data sets from deteriorating media to modern,

stable media.The archive’s holdings are used for environmental research, land management, natural

hazard analysis, and natural resource management and development with applications that extend well

beyond U.S. borders.The worldwide community of archive users includes personnel in Federal, State,

local, and tribal governments, researchers at academic institutions, private enterprise, and the public.

Land Use and Land Cover

The Land Cover Characterization Program was started in 1995, to address national and international

requirements for land-cover data that were becoming increasingly sophisticated and diverse.The goal is

to be a national and international center for excellence in land-cover characterization, via:

• Development of state-of-the-art multiscale land-cover characteristics databases used by scientists,

resource managers, planners, and educators (global and national land cover)

• Contribution to the understanding of the patterns, characteristics, and dynamics of land cover

across the Nation and the Earth (urban dynamics and land-cover trends)

• Pursuit of research that improves the utility and efficiency of large-area land-cover characterization

and land-cover characteristics databases

• Serving as a central facility (Land Cover Applications Center) for access to, or information about,

land-cover data.

Related Research

DOI also sponsors contributing research programs addressing the collection, maintenance, analysis, and

interpretation of short- and long-term land, water, biological, and other geological and biological

processes and resources through dispersed observing networks; research in land use and land cover,

including creation of maps and digital data products; and inventorying and monitoring of biological

habitats, resources, and diversity.
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DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Principal Areas of Focus

Through Department of State annual funding, the United States is the world’s leading financial

contributor to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—the principal international organization for the

assessment of scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant to the understanding of

climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Recent DOS

contributions to these organizations provide substantial support for global climate observation and

assessment activities in developing countries. DOS also works with other agencies in promoting

international cooperation in a range of bilateral and multilateral climate change initiatives, including:

the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, the Carbon Sequestration Leadership

Forum, the Group on Earth Observations, the Methane-to-Markets Partnership, the International

Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy, and the Generation IV International Forum.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

During FY 2007, DOS will continue to support the activities of the UNFCCC and the IPCC, including

finalization of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and will advance the bilateral and multilateral

partnerships for global climate science, technology, and observation that were undertaken in the

FY 2005-2006 time frame.
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DEPARTMENT OFTRANSPORTATION

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department ofTransportation conducts research and uses existing science to improve

decisionmaking tools to address climate change. USDOT supports research that 1) examines the

potential impacts of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and services;

2) increases energy efficiency and reduces greenhouse gases; and 3) improves transportation

greenhouse gas data and modeling. USDOT has many programs that have either direct or indirect

climate benefits and is working to develop cross-modal strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

USDOT’s Climate Change Center is the Department’s focal point for information and technical

expertise on climate change.The Center coordinates research, policies, and actions related to

transportation and climate change with USDOT’s component organizations. Supporting USDOT’s

core goals of safety, mobility, environmental stewardship, and security, the Center promotes

comprehensive approaches to reduce greenhouse gases, to prepare for the potential impacts of climate

change, and to develop necessary adaptations to transportation operations and infrastructure.The

Center’s three primary objectives are to:

• Promote cost-effective strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions while supporting improved

transportation safety, mobility, and efficiency

• Foster strategies to avoid, mitigate, or adapt to the potential impacts of climate change on the

transportation system

• Provide leadership to the transportation community and coordinate USDOT multi-modal activities

on climate change.

The Center supports CCSP goals through these objectives. Specifically, the Center aims to inform

CCSP Goal 4 by identifying and providing scientific inputs for evaluating adaptation options and CCSP

Goal 5 by supporting adaptive management and planning for physical infrastructure sensitive to

climate variability and change.

In addition to participating in the Center, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has independent

programs to reduce greenhouse gases and support CCSP goals. FAA conducts research to support

CCSP Goal 2, leveraging research with other U.S. Government agencies to reduce uncertainties

surrounding aviation emissions and their effect on climate change. FAA research through the

Partnership for AirTransportation Noise and Emissions Reduction (PARTNER) Center of Excellence

addresses the impact of aircraft contrails on climate change. FAA also has a number of ongoing

operational initiatives to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases produced by aviation, including

improved air traffic management, reduced vertical separation minimums, and the voluntary airport

low emissions program that assists in deploying low emissions technology to airport operations. FAA

also lends technical expertise and data to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and

the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
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Program Highlights for FY 2007

USDOT’s Climate Change Center is undertaking several research projects that support CCSP Goals 4

and 5, and are expected to be completed in FY 2007:

• Developing a tool to allow comparative analysis of emissions from different modes of transportation,

including aviation, automobile, marine, and diesel transportation

• Exploring adaptation to potential impacts of climate change by partnering with theTransportation

Research Board of the National Academies

– Reexamine the role of design standards for transportation infrastructure in light of potential

impacts from climate change

– Develop operational responses to potential climate change impacts

– Review approaches to decisionmaking under uncertainty

• Conducting an emissions analysis of freight transport, comparing land-side and water-side short-sea

routes to develop and demonstrate a decision modeling tool

• Determining the potential effects of sea level rise on national transportation infrastructure.

The Center sponsors CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7, “Impacts of ClimateVariability and

Change onTransportation Systems and Infrastructure–Gulf Coast Study.”This project—initiated under

the President’s Climate Change Research Initiative—is a joint research effort with USGS.A Federal

Advisory Committee was formed in 2006, and Phase I will be completed in 2007. Phase I will provide

an integrated overview of infrastructure sensitivities in the region.

The Office of the Secretary is funding several projects for FY 2007 completion, including a Best

Practices Guidebook for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Freight Transportation.The Guidebook will be

designed for use by companies and individual freight operators.

Related Research

Many of DOT’s programs have ancillary climate benefits:

• The Federal Highway Administration has numerous programs to prepare the highway system for

weather irregularities and reduce air pollutants:

– RoadWeather Management Program.This program seeks to better understand the impacts of

weather on roadways.The Clarus initiative will develop and demonstrate a national integrated

surface transportation road weather observing, forecasting, and data management system.

– It All Adds Up to Cleaner Air.This collaborative effort advocates simple, convenient actions

people can take in their daily lives to contribute to an overall improvement in air quality.

– Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program.The CMAQ program

provides over $8.6 billion in funds to State transit agencies to invest in projects that reduce

emissions from transportation-related sources over a period of 6 years (2004-2009).

– Idle-Reduction Activities. DOT, EPA, and DOE have provided funding for the implementation of

idle-reduction projects around the country (both on-board and off-board technologies) for

transportation, air quality, and energy stakeholders.The projects have resulted in reductions in

criteria air pollutants, such as NOx, as well as reductions in CO2 emissions.This initiative has

expanded to include idling emissions from marine, rail, and off-road heavy-duty engines.
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• The National Highway andTransit Safety Administration sets new Corporate Average Fuel Economy

standards for light trucks, increasing energy efficiency and thus decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.

• FAA is developing numerous environmental analytical tools, including the System for assessing

Aviation’s Global Emissions (SAGE).This system generates aviation emission inventories for baseline

conditions, forecasts technology and operational improvements, and uses market-based measures to

reduce fuel use. It is used to calculate aviation’s fuel efficiency goal and assess cost-effective options

to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• The FederalTransit Administration (FTA) Fuel Cell Program has researched and demonstrated fuel

cell bus technology since the mid-1990’s. FTA also conducts alternative fuels research.

• Other programs for congestion mitigation, hydrogen-powered transportation, and transit

developments all will potentially reduce greenhouse gases.
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AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Principal Areas of Focus

The Famine EarlyWarning System Network (FEWS NET) is an innovative application of science for

support of efforts at alleviating risks related to existing climate variability or the potential for climate

change.Through FEWS NET, USAID is able to provide decisionmakers—both in the United States and

in the developing world—with information designed to support policy and program interventions for

effective and timely response to drought and food insecurity. FEWS NET historically focused its

activities in 18 drought-prone countries across sub-Saharan Africa and, as of 2003, FEWS NET has

expanded its coverage to include select countries in Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.

In addition to monitoring a wide variety of socioeconomic indicators to identify levels of food insecurity,

FEWS NET monitors and analyzes remotely sensed data and ground-based meteorological, crop, and

rangeland observations to track the progress of rainy seasons and crop production in semi-arid regions,

in order to identify early indications of reduced food availability and access.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

In FY 2007, FEWS NET will continue to provide seasonal monitoring in relationship to analyses of

food insecurity conditions in Africa and Central America, as well as in Haiti and Afghanistan.A major

element of this work has been to strengthen information networks that collect and analyze data to

reveal intra- and interannual climate variability trends as they relate to possible longer term climate

variability and change.
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

Principal Areas of Focus

EPA’s Global Change Research Program is stakeholder-oriented, with primary emphasis on evaluating the

potential consequences of global change (particularly climate variability and change) on air quality, water

quality, ecosystems,and human health in the United States.This includes improving the scientific basis for

evaluating effects of global change in the context of other stressors,and evaluating the risks and opportunities

presented by global change. EPA uses the results of these studies to investigate adaptation options to

improve society’s ability to effectively respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change.

The program is multidisciplinary and emphasizes the integration of the concepts, methods,and results of

the physical, biological,and social sciences into decision-support frameworks.This work is consistent with

and closely coordinated with the CCSP Strategic Plan.

The planning and implementation of EPA’s program is integrated by the CCSP with other participating

Federal departments and agencies to reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps,and add

integrative value to products and deliverables produced under the CCSP’s auspices. EPA coordinates with

other CCSP agencies to develop and provide timely, useful,and scientifically sound information to

decisionmakers.This includes support for the production of CCSP synthesis and assessment products called

for in the CCSP Strategic Plan,and the development of decision-support tools for resource managers and

decisionmakers.Also,as called for by the National Research Council in 2001, EPA supports and fosters

projects that link the producers and users of knowledge in a dialogue that builds a mutual understanding of

what is needed, what can credibly be said,and how it can be said in a way that maintains scientific credibility.

EPA’s program also makes significant contributions to the high-level interagency bilateral climate dialogues

that are led by the Department of State. EPA’s program supports research on climate impacts and adaptation

in China, Italy, Canada,and India.These activities focus on evaluating the potential consequences of climate

change and adaptation strategies.

EPA’s program has four areas of emphasis:air quality, water quality, ecosystems,and human health.The

results of studies done in these areas are integrated at particular places (such as watersheds).

Air Quality

Studies are planned that will examine the potential consequences of global change on air quality in the

United States.The long-term goal of this focus area is to provide the approaches, methods,and models to

quantitatively evaluate the effects of global change on air quality,and to identify technology advancements

and adaptive responses and quantify their effect on air quality.

Water Quality

Water quality is affected by changes in runoff following changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration

and/or changes in land use.The program is investigating the possible impacts of global change (climate and

land-use change) on water quality using a watershed approach.The water quality studies will contribute to

and benefit from human health and ecosystems studies.
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Ecosystems

EPA’s mission is not only to protect human health but also to safeguard the natural environment. EPA

provides environmental protection that contributes to making communities and ecosystems diverse,

sustainable, and economically productive. Consistent with this goal, EPA’s Global Change Research

Program has planned three research activities that evaluate the effects of global change on aquatic

ecosystems (which may include lakes, rivers,and streams; wetlands;and estuaries and coastal ecosystems);

invasive nonindigenous species; and ecosystem services. EPA’s investigations of the effects of global

change on aquatic ecosystems will use as input the research being done by other CCSP agencies on

marine and terrestrial ecosystems.Therefore, EPA’s ability to successfully complete its assessments

depends crucially upon the ability of other CCSP agencies to complete their related research activities.

Human Health

Since health is affected by a variety of social, economic, political, environmental,and technological factors,

investigating the health impacts of global change is a complex challenge.As a result, health studies in EPA’s

Global Change Research Program go beyond basic epidemiological research to develop integrated health

evaluation frameworks that consider the effects of multiple stresses, their interactions,and human adaptive

responses.Along with health sector studies conducted in conjunction with other CCSP agencies, there are

research activities focused on the possible consequences of global change on weather-related morbidity and

vector- and water-borne diseases. In addition, the results from EPA’s Global Change Research Program air

quality studies will be used to evaluate health consequences.

Intramural and extramural research contribute to all of EPA’s investigations. In an attempt to capitalize on

expertise in the academic community,a significant portion of the program’s resources is dedicated to

extramural research grants administered through the STAR (Science toAchieve Results) program.The

STAR program focuses on science to support investigations of the consequences of global change for air

quality, ecosystems,and human health in the United States. EPA will continue to coordinate closely with

other CCSP agencies to identify the specific topics that should be emphasized within the STAR program.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

EPA will continue to make significant contributions to the ongoing research activities of the CCSP.

EPA-sponsored investigations will continue to be conducted through public-private partnerships that

actively engage researchers from the academic community, decisionmakers, resource managers, and

other affected stakeholders. Highlights of specific activities that will be undertaken by EPA in FY 2007

follow:

• Support the CCSP commitment to generate 21 synthesis and assessment products by leading three

analyses and supporting eight others

• Produce an interim quantitative assessment of the direct effects of climate change on air quality in

the United States

• Co-sponsor with NOAA a study by the National Research Council of strategies and methods for

climate-related decision support

• Release a Climate AssessmentTool as part of the newer version of EPA’s BASINS modeling system

used by regional, State, and local agencies to perform watershed and water quality-based studies

• Study the management implications of global change and interacting stressors on the establishment

and expansion of invasive species for key aquatic ecosystems
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• Support the high-level interagency bilateral climate dialogues with China, Italy, Canada, and India

that are being led by the Department of State

• Study current land conservation practices and provide a tool for projecting future distributions of

land protection as an adaptation mechanism to climate change that restores or maintains ecosystem

services

• Investigate the effects of changes in climate and land use on non-point source pollution in estuaries.

Related Research

In addition to focused CCSP activities, EPA conducts research that contributes to the characterization

and understanding of risks to ecosystems and to human health.The ecosystems-based research is

designed to understand and predict ecosystem exposure, responses, and vulnerabilities to high-risk

chemicals and non-chemical stressors (e.g., invasive species, genetically altered organisms) at multiple

scales of biological organization and geographic scales.The research in human health is oriented toward

assessing the cumulative health risks to humans (e.g., cancer, reproductive, cardiovascular)—including

high-risk subpopulations (e.g., children)—from chemical stressors emanating from multiple sources.

Both of these major research areas will be affected by and are inextricably interrelated with climate

change.
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NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

Principal Areas of Focus

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration provides worldwide science and technology

leadership to understand the integrated global Earth system through pioneering advancements of Earth

system observations, research, and modeling enabled by satellites. NASA’s programs encompass virtually

every element and component in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. NASA

has the largest agency investment in the 13-agency Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), and the

Science Mission Directorate Earth Science Division (ESD) is the NASA leader for CCSP.

ESD encompasses the global atmosphere from the surface of the land and sea to the top of the

stratosphere; the global oceans including sea ice; all land surfaces including snow and ice; the solid

Earth beneath the ocean and land; the ecosystems in the air, oceans, and land; and all the interactions

between the atmosphere, oceans, land, snow, ice, and associated ecology, including humans.The

multitude of integrated global Earth system processes and their interactions have important time scales

from hours to centuries that include weather over short- and long-term climate time periods, and have

horizontal distances from kilometers (regional) to the entire globe. NASA’s Heliophysics Division

contributes to integrated global Earth system science through studies of the Sun and the interaction of

its radiation with the Earth’s upper atmosphere. ESD is rapidly advancing the knowledge for reliable

determination of the predictability of many interrelated natural phenomena, including the societal

impacts and feedback on natural and anthropogenic phenomena. ESD accelerates the realization of

societal benefits from knowledge of how, when, where, and why different regions of the globe experience

non-uniform environmental variability, which is important for economic growth, environmental

sustainability, national security, and homeland security. ESD continues the NASA tradition of creating

breakthrough scientific and technological advancements on enormously challenging issues such as

global climate change.

ESD programs are also embodied in several Presidential interagency initiatives that complement the

climate initiative, including the “U.S. Ocean Action Plan” (17 December 2004) and the “Strategic Plan

for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System” (6 April 2005). ESD applies knowledge of global

Earth system science obtained through space-based observations and research to improve quality of

life through enhanced capabilities for prediction and mitigation of the effects of environmental

hazards.

ESD pioneered the interdisciplinary field of integrated global Earth system science, which explores the

global interactions among land, oceans, atmosphere, ice, and life.To study these interactions, ESD

developed and deployed the constellation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites named Aqua,Aura,

Terra, GRACE, Jason, QuikScat,TRMM, and others, along with aircraft- and surface-based sensors for

extensive calibration and validation required for the development of climate-quality satellite

measurements. ESD created the world’s largest data and information system for collecting, processing,

archiving, and distributing EOS data.

ESD focuses on integrated global Earth system science through observation, research, and modeling

enabled by satellites, and technology development to address the overarching question “How is the
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Earth changing, and what are the consequences for life on Earth?” Five subordinate questions describe

ESD’s integrated global Earth system science approach:

• How is the global Earth system changing?

• What are the primary causes of change in the Earth system?

• How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced change?

• What are the consequences of change in the Earth system for human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes in the Earth system?

To accomplish integrated global Earth system science, ESD organized focus areas—some of which are

shown in the accompanying table, aligned with the CCSP elements. Other focus areas areWeather and

the Earth Surface and Interior, as well as a cross-cutting theme of Earth system science education and

literacy.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

ESD will make significant progress in contributing to increased scientific knowledge in six high-priority

CCSP research areas: aerosols and clouds, carbon cycle, glacier motions, global climate-quality

observations, numerical model simulations of integrated global Earth system variability, and decisionsupport resources development for adaptive management and planning. ESD will determine the threedimensional structure of clouds and aerosols with satellite data recently acquired from CloudSat (a joint

project with Canada) and CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite

Observations, a joint project with France), which were launched on a single rocket on 28 April 2006.

CALIPSO and CloudSat orbits are virtually the same as the orbits of Aura and Aqua and the French

spacecraft PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled

Observations from a Lidar). Only 8 minutes (or a distance of approximately 3,100 km on the Earth)

separate the first and last satellites.This unique constellation of five satellites—known as the

Afternoon- or A-Train—represents a technological breakthrough and provides for the first time nearsimultaneous co-located measurements of atmospheric gases, aerosols, clouds, temperature, relative

humidity, and radiative fluxes.Analyses of A-Train data will reduce the large uncertainty of the roles of

clouds and aerosols in global climate change.

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENTS NASA EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE

FOCUS AREAS

Atmospheric Composition Atmospheric Composition

Climate Variability and Change Climate Variability and Change

Global Water Cycle Global Water and Energy Cycle

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

Global Carbon Cycle

Ecosystems

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

Human Contributions and Responses Applied Sciences
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ESD will continue to have a leading role in understanding the global carbon cycle through the North

American Carbon Program and the Ocean Carbon and Climate Change Program. ESD will contribute

substantial investments in satellite and in situ observations and in developing ecosystem and

biogeochemical models to reduce scientific uncertainties of carbon sources, sinks, and fluxes within

North America and the surrounding oceans, which has recently been a subject of intense scientific

interest for both scientists and decisionmakers. ESD will continue developing the Orbiting Carbon

Observatory (OCO) satellite to measure for the first time global atmospheric carbon dioxide on

regional scales with unprecedented accuracy to determine sources and sinks. OCO is scheduled for

launch in 2008, when it will join the A-Train.

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) is measuring for the first time ice-sheet mass

balance in Greenland and Antarctica, an important quantity in understanding global sea-level rise,

whichTOPEX and Jason data indicate was about 2 mm yr-1 over the past 15 years. ESD investigators

will develop the first-ever vertical profiles of glacier motion from the surface to depths of hundreds of

meters using simultaneous satellite synthetic aperture radar measurements recorded at X, C, and L

frequencies, respectively, by partner agencies in Germany, Canada, and Japan.This is a key project of

the International PolarYear 2007-2008.

To accomplish the very stringent characteristics of global climate-quality data recorded from satellites,

ESD state-of-the-art calibration and validation capabilities assess climate data homogeneity, usually

during a scientific campaign.Validation of Aqua,Aura, CloudSat, and CALIPSO data is planned for

summer 2007, when the ER-2,WB-57, and DC-8 aircraft, balloon-borne sensors, and enhanced

ground-based atmospheric networks will be deployed for simultaneous correlative measurements

during the NASA-ledTropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment.TC4 will

investigate integrated Earth system processes in convective weather systems over the eastern tropical

Pacific and Gulf of Mexico.

ESD will implement an advanced integrated global Earth system model through NASA’s new Project

Columbia supercomputing facility which, in April 2006, was the fourth fastest in the world.The

current version of the model—which will assimilate chemical and physical variables, initially in the

atmosphere and then in the ocean—will, for example, simulate global carbon sources and sinks.A new

emphasis on cyberinfrastructure through the NASA-led interagency Earth System Model Framework

will be initiated.

Related Research

ESD—in partnership with other Federal agencies, State and local governments, academia, and

industry—explores new uses of global Earth system observations and science results to mitigate

societal problems of national importance. In FY 2007, ESD will complete the benchmark for the

assimilation of Aqua,Aura, andTerra observations in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

(CDC) warning system for airborne particles in Atlanta.
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Principal Areas of Focus

NSF programs address global change issues through investments in challenging ideas, creative people,

and effective tools. In particular, NSF global change research programs support research and related

activities to advance the fundamental understanding of physical, chemical, biological, and human

systems and the interactions among them.The programs encourage interdisciplinary activities and focus

particularly on Earth system processes and the consequences of change. NSF programs facilitate data

acquisition and information management activities necessary for fundamental research on global

change, and promote the enhancement of models designed to improve understanding of Earth system

processes and interactions, and to develop advanced analytic methods to facilitate basic research. NSF

also supports fundamental research on the general processes used by organizations to identify and evaluate

policies for mitigation, adaptation, and other responses to the challenge of varying environmental

conditions.Through its investment, NSF contributes to CCSP by providing a comprehensive scientific

foundation for many of the synthesis and assessment products identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

Atmospheric Composition

NSF programs in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry will continue to address the composition of

the atmosphere and its relation to climate variability and change. Studies of the transformation and

transport of gaseous constituents and aerosols provide insights into the radiative and cloud nucleating

properties of the atmosphere. Studies of the global distributions of greenhouse gases will provide input

for future scenarios of radiative forcing.

ClimateVariability and Change

NSF programs continue to emphasize climate variability and change as a major issue.This research

element supports observational campaigns and numerous analytical and modeling activities. Ocean

science efforts will focus on changes in ocean structure,circulation, and interactions with the atmosphere

to improve current understanding of the processes and models that address future changes, particularly

those that may happen abruptly.The Community Climate System Model is being developed to improve

model physics and parameterizations that will lead to more comprehensive models incorporating

interactive chemistry and biology. Studies of paleoclimatology will continue to be supported as a means

to provide baseline data on natural climate variability from the past and from key climatic regions.

These studies will improve our understanding of the natural variability of the climate system and in

particular will enable reconstructions and evaluations of past environmental change as inputs for model

validations.

The GlobalWater Cycle

NSF supports a broad-based effort to understand all aspects of the global water cycle. Relevant

programs will continue to explore ways to optimally and effectively utilize the wide range of

hydrological data types—continuous and discrete time and space information from a variety of

platforms for research purposes. Information from process studies will be used to refine models

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through scaling and parameterizations of sub-grid processes, particularly the fluxes of water through

the Earth system. Planning for and the initiation of several prototype hydrological observatories, both

physical and virtual, are being carried out. Science andTechnology Centers will continue to work with

stakeholders responsible for water management and with educators to translate research advances into

useful products, particularly exploring issues related to decisionmaking in the face of uncertainty as

applied to the urbanizing and drought-prone Southwest.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

Several NSF programs continue to address key aspects of land-use and land-cover change through

studies in ecological rates of change and related species diversity;Arctic systems; temporal variability;

water and energy influences on vegetative systems; and diverse human influences on land utilization.

Global Carbon Cycle

NSF supports a wide variety of carbon cycle research activities. Investigations examine a range of topics

in terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their relations to the carbon cycle. Research in terrestrial

settings will explore, for example, carbon storage, delivery of carbon by rivers, carbon fluxes from

high-latitude soils, and carbon export from mountains and submarine groundwater discharge. In the

oceans, air-sea gas exchange, remineralization of particles in the mesopelagic, and the upper ocean

carbon budget will be addressed. Carbon cycle studies will integrate observational data into models to

provide insights for understanding key aspects of the global carbon cycle.

Ecosystems

Several NSF programs address terrestrial and marine ecosystems through observational, experimental,

modeling, and laboratory studies.The collection of information and knowledge of climate-ecosystem

interactions in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems through the Long-Term Ecological Research

(LTER) projects derives from the rich array of observation, monitoring, experimentation, and modeling

throughout this networked research program.The Hawaii OceanTimes-Series (HOT) and Bermuda

AtlanticTime Series (BATS) sites augment the LTER network in the central ocean gyre ecosystems.The

Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics program will continue to study the impact of global ocean changes

on marine ecosystems through specific synthesis activities focused on the North Atlantic, North Pacific,

and Southern Ocean systems.

Human Contributions and Responses

NSF supports basic research on the processes through which people (individually, in groups, or through

organizations) interact with natural environmental systems. Programs support projects that focus on

decisionmaking under uncertainty associated with climate change.These projects are expected to

produce new knowledge and tools that should facilitate improved decisionmaking by various stakeholder

groups trying to deal with uncertainties associated with future climate variability and change.

International Research and Cooperation

The “International PolarYear 2007-2008” (IPY) will extend from March 2007 through March 2009.

The President’s Office of Science andTechnology Policy designated NSF the lead Federal agency in

organizing U.S.-International PolarYear activities. NSF IPY activities will focus on improving our

understanding of climate change in the Arctic and on longer term sea-level changes associated with

changes in the stability of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
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Related Research

NSF will continue to support “contributing” research on broader topics that are closely related to global

and climate change.These include, inter alia, studies of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, ecosystems,

paleoclimatology, and human dimensions—all of which add substantively to the specific programs

supporting CCSP objectives. NSF has the computing infrastructure in place and under enhancement to

enable more effective utilization of the research information. In addition, NSF supports projects that

integrate research with education on global and climate change to demonstrate that scientific

visualization—incorporated into inquiry-based learning—can enable students to develop an

understanding of complex global change phenomena. Students address these issues by evaluating

multimedia data at various spatial and temporal resolutions, reviewing scientific evidence, and

considering social concerns that contribute to global and climate change debates.
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SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION

National Air and Space Museum (NASM)

National Museum of Natural History (NMNH)

National Zoological Park (NZP)

Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO)

Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC)

SmithsonianTropical Research Institute (STRI)

Principal Areas of Focus

Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change research is conducted at the Smithsonian

Astrophysical Observatory, the National Air and Space Museum, the Smithsonian Environmental

Research Center, the National Museum of Natural History, the SmithsonianTropical Research Institute,

and the National Zoological Park. Research is organized around themes of atmospheric processes,

ecosystem dynamics, observing natural and anthropogenic environmental change on daily to decadal

time scales, and defining longer term climate proxies present in the historical artifacts and records of

the museums as well as in the geologic record at field sites.The Smithsonian Institution program strives

to improve knowledge of the natural processes involved in global climate change, to provide a longterm repository of climate-relevant research materials for present and future studies, and to bring this

knowledge to various audiences, ranging from scholarly to the lay public.The unique contribution of

the Smithsonian Institution is a long-term perspective—for example, undertaking investigations that

may require extended study before producing useful results and conducting observations on sufficiently

long (e.g., decadal) time scales to resolve human-caused modification of natural variability.

Program Highlights for FY 2007

Atmospheric Composition

At SERC, measurements will be made of spectral UV-B in Maryland (>25-year record), Florida,

Arizona, and other sites in the United States.These data will be electronically disseminated to meet the

needs for assessing the biological and chemical impact of varying ultraviolet radiation exposures.

ClimateVariability and Change

Research at NASM will emphasize the use of remote-sensing data to improve theories of drought, sand

mobility, soil stability, and climate change in the eastern Sahara. Studies at NMNH and STRI will focus

on the paleoecology of climate change.

Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems

Several Smithsonian programs will examine biological responses to global change.At SERC, research

will be conducted on the responses of global ecosystems to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations

(also a contribution to the Global Carbon Cycle program).This SERC program will also focus on

invasive species and solar UV-B. Biodiversity education and research will be performed at STRI,

NMNH, and NZP.Tropical biodiversity research programs monitor global change effects through

repeated sampling of flora and fauna in tropical forests, and identifying the physical and biological
processes of growth and decline of species. Other studies on ecosystem response to increasing habitat

fragmentation will be conducted at NZP.

Human Dimensions of Global Change

The general public and research community will be informed of global change research conducted by

Smithsonian and other CCSP agencies via exhibits. During FY 2007, exhibits developed by staff at

NMNH, SERC, and SAO will be displayed at NMNH in the “Forces of Change: Global Links” series

concerning the atmosphere and the Arctic, with accompanying educational programs and ancillary

information accessible through the Internet.

Related Research

Much of the global change research performed at the Smithsonian is not supported by direct Federal

appropriation (i.e., CCSP cross-cut funding) and instead is supported by other public and private

sources (including other CCSP-participating agencies).These projects are nonetheless organized around

the CCSP program elements, thus amplifying the scope and impact of research supported directly by

CCSP.At SAO, there are extensive measurement programs for stratospheric and tropospheric

composition.These include pollution measurements from space and its eventual development into

continuous global monitoring.This work contributes to global climate observations, enhances climate

modeling systems, quantifies greenhouse gas sources and sinks, and reduces scientific uncertainties of

aerosol effects.There are continuing studies on solar activity and its relationship to climate. SERC and

STRI receive agency support via competitive grants programs to perform studies of ecosystem responses

to increased carbon dioxide, UV-B, and invasive species. Other contributing activities include research

conducted by several units within the Smithsonian in a variety of habitats concerning natural and humaninduced variations in species, populations-communities, and ecosystems.These studies help clarify the

relative importance of global change effects as one of several agents of ecological change. Studies of

environmental change over long time periods are aided by the Institution’s collections. Used by

researchers around the world, these materials provide raw data for evaluating changes in the physical

and biological environment that occurred before human influences.

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CONTACT INFORMATION

Climate Change Science Program Office

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Suite 250

Washington, DC 20006

202-223-6262 (voice)

202-223-3065 (fax)

information@climatescience.gov

information@usgcrp.gov

http://www.climatescience.gov/

http://www.usgcrp.gov/

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM INCORPORATES THE U.S. GLOBAL

CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE.

To obtain a copy of this document, place an order at the Global Change Research

Information Office (GCRIO) web site: http://www.gcrio.org/orders.