U.S. Climate Change Science Program

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C. 20006 USA

+1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax)

http://www.climatescience.gov/

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Cert no. SW-COC-1530

COVERmrepX.indd 1 COVER mr epX.indd 1 
William J. Brennan

Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program;

and Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change

Research

Jack Kaye, Vice Chair

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Thomas Armstrong

U.S. Geological Survey

Allen Dearry

Department of Health and Human Services

Jerry Elwood

Department of Energy

Mary Glackin

Department of Commerce

Patricia Gruber

Department of Defense

William Hohenstein

Department of Agriculture

Linda Lawson

Department of Transportation

Jarvis Moyers

National Science Foundation

Patrick Neale

Smithsonian Institution

Jacqueline Schafer

U.S. Agency for International Development

Joel Scheraga

Environmental Protection Agency

Harlan Watson

Department of State

EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND OTHER LIAISONS

George Banks

Council on Environmental Quality

Melissa Brandt

Office of Management and Budget

Stephen Eule

Director, Climate Change Technology Program

Howard Frumkin

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Katharine Gebbie

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Margaret R. McCalla

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Gene Whitney

Office of Science and Technology Policy

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM and

SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

This document describes the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) for FY 2008. It provides a summary

of the achievements of the program, an analysis of the progress made, and budgetary information. It thereby

responds to the annual reporting requirements of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 102,

P. L. 101-606). It does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or make

any findings of fact that could serve as predicates for regulatory action. Agencies must comply with required

statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any statements in this document or by the CCSP as

a basis for regulatory action.

Department of Energy

COVERmrepX.indd 2 COVER mr epX.indd 2 
OUR CHANGING PLANET

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program

for Fiscal Year 2008

A Report by

the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

A Supplement to the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2008
October 2007

Members of Congress:

We are pleased to transmit a copy of Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change

Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008. The report describes the activities and plans of the

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program, established under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, and the

Climate Change Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001. CCSP

coordinates and integrates scientific research on climate and global change supported by

13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

This Fiscal Year 2008 edition of Our Changing Planet highlights recent advances and

progress supported by CCSP-participating agencies in each of the program’s research and

observational elements, as called for in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program released in July 2003.

The document describes a wide range of advances in understanding the underlying

processes responsible for climate variability and change, such as advances in understanding

of climate change at high latitudes. It also describes progress on understanding the ongoing

and projected effects of climate change on nature and society, including the interconnected

relationships between climate, forests, and wildfire. The document also describes how

observational and predictive capabilities are being improved and used to create tools to

support decisionmaking at local, regional, and national scales to cope with environmental

variability and change.

The document outlines how CCSP plans to continue implementation of the Strategic Plan

during FY 2008. The program will continue to emphasize work on 21 scientific synthesis

and assessment products, three of which have been completed. Two of these products

were released in the past year. The first, entitled Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and

Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application,

used computer-based models to assess the economic and technological implications of

limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This product also described key principles underlying

the development of global change scenarios. The second, entitled Effects of Climate Change

on Energy Production and Use in the United States, summarized current understanding on

how climate change could affect energy production, supply, and consumption in the

United States. The remaining products are well underway.
CCSP is committed to its mission to facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of

the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and

communication. We thank the CCSP-participating agencies for their close cooperation,

and we look forward to working with Congress in the continued development of this

important program. 

John H. Marburger III

Director, Office of Science 

and Technology Policy

Executive Director, 

Committee on 

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration

Samuel W. Bodman

Secretary of Energy

Chair, Committee on

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration

Carlos M. Gutierrez

Secretary of Commerce

Vice Chair, Committee on

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2008 . . 1

Integrating Climate and Global Change Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

CCSP Goals and Analysis of Progress Toward These Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

CCSP FY 2008 Key Interagency Implementation Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Decision Support: Information to Support

Policy Development and Adaptive Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Outline of Research Element Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH AND PLANS FOR FY 2008 . 31

Atmospheric Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Climate Variability and Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Global Water Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Global Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related

Research on Human Contributions and Responses . . . . 110

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

International Research and Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

APPENDICES

The Climate Change Science Program Participating Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

Climate Change Science Program FY 2008 Budget Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .193

TABLE OF CONTENTS
THE U.S. CLIMATE 

CHANGE SCIENCE

PROGRAM
Climate plays an important role in shaping the environment, natural resources,

infrastructure, economy, and other aspects of life in all countries of the world.

Therefore, variations and changes in climate can have substantial environmental and

socioeconomic implications. The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) was

established in 2002 to empower the Nation and the global community with the sciencebased knowledge to manage risks and opportunities of change in the climate and

related environmental systems. CCSP incorporates and integrates the U.S. Global

Change Research Program (USGCRP) with the Administration’s U.S. Climate Change

Research Initiative (CCRI). The USGCRP was mandated by Congress in the Global

Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, 104 Stat. 3096-3104) to improve

understanding of uncertainties in climate science, expand global observing systems,

develop science-based resources to support policymaking and resource management,

and communicate findings broadly among scientific and stakeholder communities. 

Climate research conducted over the past several years indicates that most of the global

warming experienced in the past few decades is very likely due to the observed

increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. Research also

indicates that the human

influence on the climate

system is expected to

increase.1 It is therefore

essential for society to be

equipped with the best

possible knowledge of

climate variability and change so that we may exercise responsible stewardship for the

environment, lessen the potential for negative climate impacts, and take advantage of

opportunities where they exist. The importance of these issues and the unique role that

science can play in informing society’s responses give rise to CCSP’s guiding vision.

2

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

FOR FY 2008

A nation and the global community empowered

with the science-based knowledge to manage

the risks and opportunities of change in the

climate and related environmental systems.

CCSP GUIDING VISION
CCSP carries out its mission through four core approaches: scientific research,

observations, decision support, and communication. These approaches build upon

scientific advances of the

last few decades and are

deepening understanding

of the interplay of natural

and human-caused forces,

their implications, and

response options. CCSP

is developing information to facilitate comparative analysis of different approaches for

adapting to and mitigating climate change. CCSP also promotes capacity development

among scientists and information users—both in the developed and the developing

world—to address the interactions between climate change, society, and the

environment. 

INTEGRATING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

Thirteen departments and agencies of the U.S. Government participate in CCSP,

including: 

• Department of Agriculture (USDA) 

• Department of Commerce (DOC)

– National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

– National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

• Department of Defense (DOD) 

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior (DOI)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

In addition, the Executive Office of the President and other related programs have

designated liaisons who participate on the CCSP Interagency Committee, including: 

• Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

• Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)

3

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Facilitate the creation and application of

knowledge of the Earth’s global environment

through research, observations, decision

support, and communication.

CCSP MISSION
• Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

• Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

• Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM).

Appendix A, “The Climate Change Science Program Participating Agencies,” contains

information about the specific missions and roles of each agency participating in the

program. Appendix B, “Climate Change Science Program FY 2008 Budget Tables,”

contains budgetary analyses of the program grouped by agency as well as a programwide interagency cross-cut grouped by the strategic goals and research elements of

CCSP, as described in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Research Program

published in July 2003.

CCSP is responsible for coordinating and integrating scientific research on global

environmental variability and change sponsored by these agencies to take advantage

of their unique approaches and missions, and to encourage research that leads to

expanded and new results. Thus, the program helps to catalyze research that goes

beyond individual agency missions to address overarching national objectives and to

achieve results that no single agency, or small group of agencies, could attain. A

significant challenge that arises from working across many agencies is integrating

climate and global change research to develop a comprehensive view of climate

change and its potential significance. 

CCSP relies not only on the agency programs stated in its budget cross-cut, but also

on agency activities that are not formally included in the CCSP budget. Examples of

these directly related activities are surface hydrologic and satellite land-cover

observations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and future satellite measurement

programs including portions of the tri-agency (NOAA/DOD/NASA) National PolarOrbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and the planned

implementation of a Landsat data continuity mission.aWithout input from activities

such as these, CCSP would be unable to fulfill its mission.

CCSP is closely allied with other major interagency programs that observe and study

particular aspects of the Earth system and related societal dimensions. Foremost

among these is the CCTP, which develops and studies technological options for

responding to climate change. CCSP is also closely linked to ongoing Federal ocean

science and technology strategic planning under the auspices of the Joint

4

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

a As a result of the recent review and reformulation of its CCSP contributions, NASA considers 33% of its Landsat Data Continuity

Mission (LDCM) budget and 100% of its National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory

Project budget to contribute to CCSP. NASA budget figures provided in this report reflect the inclusion of this funding.
5

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems

to a new or changing environment that

exploits beneficial opportunities or

moderates negative effects.

Climate

The statistical description of the mean

and variability of relevant measures of

the atmosphere-ocean system over

periods of time ranging from weeks to

thousands or millions of years.

Climate Change

A statistically significant variation in

either the mean state of the climate or in

its variability, persisting for an extended

period (typically decades or longer).

Climate change may be due to natural

internal processes or to external forcing,

including changes in solar radiation and

volcanic eruptions, or persistent humaninduced changes in atmospheric

composition or in land use. 

Climate Feedback

An interaction among processes in the

climate system in which a change in one

process triggers a secondary process that

influences the first one. A positive

feedback intensifies the change in the

original process, and a negative feedback

reduces it.

Climate Forcing

A process that directly changes the average

energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere

system by affecting the balance between

incoming solar radiation and outgoing or

“back” radiation. A positive forcing tends

to warm the surface of the Earth and a

negative forcing tends to cool the surface.

Climate System

The highly complex system consisting of

five major components: the atmosphere,

the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the

land surface, the biosphere, and the

interactions between them. The climate

system evolves in time under the

influence of its own internal dynamics

and because of external forcings such as

volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and

human-induced forcings such as the

changing composition of the atmosphere

and land-use change.

Climate Variability

Variations in the mean state and other

statistics of climatic features on temporal

and spatial scales beyond those of

individual weather events. These often

are due to internal processes within the

climate system. Examples of cyclical

forms of climate variability include the

El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North

Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific

Decadal Oscillation.

Decision-Support Resources

The set of observations, analyses,

interdisciplinary research products,

communication mechanisms, and

operational services that provide timely

and useful information to address

questions confronting policymakers,

resource managers, and other users.

Global Change

Changes in the global environment

(including alterations in climate, land

productivity, oceans or other water

resources, atmospheric chemistry, and

ecological systems) that may alter the

capacity of the Earth to sustain life

(from the Global Change Research Act

of 1990, PL 101-606).

Mitigation 

An intervention to reduce the humaninduced factors that contribute to

climate change. This could include

approaches devised to reduce emissions

of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere;

to enhance their removal from the

atmosphere through storage in geological

formations, soils, biomass, or the ocean;

or to alter incoming solar radiation

through several “geo-engineering” options.

Observations

Standardized measurements (either

continuing or episodic) of variables in

climate and related systems.

Prediction 

A probabilistic description or forecast of

a future climate outcome based on

observations of past and current

climatological conditions and quantitative

models of climate processes (e.g., a

prediction of an El Niño event). 

Projection

A description of the response of the

climate system to an assumed level of

future radiative forcing. Changes in

radiative forcing may be due to either

natural sources (e.g., volcanic emissions)

or human-induced factors (e.g., emissions

of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or

changes in land use and land cover).

Climate “projections” are distinguished

from climate “predictions” in order to

emphasize that climate projections depend

on scenarios of future socioeconomic,

technological, and policy developments

that may or may not be realized.

Weather

The specific condition of the atmosphere

at a particular place and time, measured

in terms of variables such as wind,

temperature, humidity, atmospheric

pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation.

DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
Subcommittee on Ocean Science and

Technology (JSOST), which recently released a

set of integrating decadal-scale national

research priorities in key areas of interaction

between society and the ocean.2 A key

observational linkage is with the U.S.

Integrated Earth Observation System, which is

part of the international Global Earth

Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

Connections to programs such as these allow

CCSP and its partners to leverage their

resources to derive mutual benefits from

advances in any one program.

Program Management

CCSP’s coordination of scientific research is accomplished through the research

elements described in the following section. The management approach as described

in the CCSP Strategic Plan integrates the planning and implementation of individual

climate and global change research programs of the participating Federal agencies and

departments to reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and synthesize

products and deliverables generated under the auspices of CCSP. Five mechanisms are

used to achieve this management approach:

• Executive Direction – The Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science

and Technology and the CCSP Interagency Committee are responsible for overall

priority setting, program direction, management review, and accountability to

deliver program goals.

• Agency Implementation – CCSP participating departments and agencies are

responsible for conducting research, developing modeling tools, developing and

operating observing systems, and producing CCSP-required products, often in

collaboration with interagency working groups.

• Interagency Planning and Implementation – Several interagency working groups,

including one for each CCSP research element, are responsible for coordinating

planning and implementation to align agency programs with CCSP priorities.

• External Guidance and Interaction – External advisory groups and organizations,

including the National Academies, provide external guidance, oversight, and

interactions to ensure scientific excellence, credibility, and utility.

• Program Support – The CCSP Office provides staffing and day-to-day coordination

of CCSP-wide program integration, strategic planning, product development, and

communications.

6

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
Coordinating Research Elements

Efforts to foster integration occur on many levels. One is improving

coordination of scientific research and the flow of information

through interdisciplinary and interagency working groups focused on

each of seven main research elements of the program plus a number

of cross-cutting activities or themes. CCSP’s research elements

include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the

global water cycle, land-use and land-cover change, the global carbon

cycle, ecosystems, and human contributions and responses to

environmental change. Chapters 3 to 15 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

contain more detailed discussions of the discipline-specific research

elements, as well as elements that cut across all areas of the program.A

brief summary of each of these research and cross-cutting elements is

provided in this document, as well as highlights of planned activities. 

Integrating research and observational approaches across disciplinary

boundaries is essential for understanding how the Earth system

functions and how it will change in response to future forcing. This

is due to the interconnectedness among components of the Earth

system, which often relate to each other through feedback loops. Interdisciplinary

interactions in CCSP are scaled to the nature of the problem. In some cases, the

necessary science may be conducted within a small set of disciplines, such as those

required to improve understanding of soil biogeochemical processes. In other cases,

highly interdisciplinary and multi-scale approaches are required, such as in the case of

making projections about the future state of the Earth system and analyzing their

implications. In this case, expertise ranging from the social sciences to atmospheric

dynamics and chemistry to oceanography to the biological sciences is required.

Examples of interdisciplinary research are the coordinated planning and operation of

two field campaigns in the southern Great Plains in 2007 examining the effects of

land-surface processes and aerosols on cumulus clouds (see <science.arm.gov/clasic>

and <asp.labworks.org>). These campaigns, involving several different agencies, were

designed to address interdisciplinary science questions spanning three CCSP research

elements: global water cycle, atmospheric composition, and global carbon cycle.

Interdisciplinary research is only one aspect of the integration facilitated by CCSP.

Integration in CCSP also refers to the steps being taken to create more seamless

approaches between the theory, modeling, observations, and applications that are

required to address the multiple scientific challenges being confronted by CCSP.

Finally, integration in CCSP also refers to the enhancement of cooperation across

agencies toward meeting the objectives articulated in the CCSP Strategic Plan. 

7

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Integrated Program Analysis

In a highly distributed program such as CCSP, it is often a challenge to develop and

maintain a cohesive perspective, ensuring that key components or interactions of the

integrated Earth system are not overlooked. To help address this challenge, the

program has often sought guidance from the National Academies. CCSP is funding a

National Research Council (NRC) committee to provide high-level, independent,

integrated advice on the strategy and evolution of the program. Specific topics the

committee will address in its first two reports are outlined below.

• The first committee report (released in September 2007) included findings and

recommendations on the process for evaluating progress toward the five CCSP

goals and a preliminary assessment of progress to date.

• The second report will identify priorities to guide the future evolution of the

program in the context of established scientific and societal objectives. 

At the request of CCSP, the NRC recently produced a report on global change

assessments that is briefly described in a later section.

CCSP will continue to rely on other mechanisms for scientific guidance and advice,

including other NRC committees that focus on particular components of the climate

system (e.g., the Climate Research Committee and the Committee on the Human

Dimensions of Global Change). CCSP will continue to rely on scientific advisory groups

that support individual agencies, scientific steering groups organized to coordinate

different CCSP research elements, and open dialog with the domestic and international

scientific and user communities interested in global change issues. 

CCSP GOALS AND ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSTOWARD THESE GOALS

At the highest conceptual level, five goals have been identified to provide focus and

facilitate programmatic integration (see accompanying box). These goals encompass

the full range of climate-related issues. The program’s detailed objectives, milestones,

products and payoffs complement these overarching goals, and are articulated in the

program’s Strategic Plan. CCSP-participating agencies and departments coordinate

their work through discipline-related “research elements,” which together support

scientific research across a wide range of interconnected issues of climate and global

change. The goals address the most common questions concerning climate change,

which include:

• To what extent and how is the climate system changing?

• What are the causes of these changes?

• What will the future climate be like and what effects will a changed climate have

on ecosystems, society, and the economy? 

8

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
• How can we best apply knowledge about ongoing and projected changes to

decisionmaking?

This section provides a high-level overview of progress made toward the program’s

goals in the 12 to 18 months prior to the preparation of this report. Because of the

program’s breadth and wide-ranging progress, this overview gives only a sampling of

the advances made. In addition, this section does not purport to provide a thorough

assessment of climate change or the extent of the scientific uncertainties that remain.

Instead, it provides examples that illustrate the scope and significance of the progress

that CCSP has made in expanding and applying understanding of climate. 

The primary focus of U.S. climate research has historically been on Goals 1 through 3,

which emphasize improvements in fundamental understanding of the climate system,

its driving forces, and the tools to make predictions of short-term climate variability

and potential long-term climate change more reliable. As the science matures and its

societal utility becomes more evident, the importance of Goals 4 and 5 has become

more significant. Examples of progress provided under each of the goals are often the

result of coordinated research activities from many disciplines conducted or supported

across the participating CCSP agencies. 

Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and

environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of

the causes of observed variability and change.

Analyses based on observations provide a solid foundation for the program. These

analyses contribute to improved understanding of Earth system processes, help

determine the extent of climate variations, and provide objective comparisons to test

and advance model veracity. In the past year, analyses have enabled several important

9

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including

its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems.

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may

change in the future.

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and related global changes.

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change.

CCSP GOALS
advances in understanding the nature and variability of the Earth system. The illustrative

examples below of progress toward CCSP’s Goal 1 are drawn from and integrate a

variety of different CCSP research elements.

One example of these integrated analyses is the progress made in understanding climate

change at high latitudes. Temperature and moisture patterns over North America and

Europe are experiencing an earlier transition from winter to summer. The warmer

spring temperatures produce earlier spring green-up of vegetation and longer growing

seasons.3 Satellite, airborne, and ground-based observations suggest that significant

changes are occurring in the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

that are inferred to be caused by warming at high latitudes.4,5 Analyses of observations

and climate model simulations suggest that the pattern of high latitude temperature

change is more readily explained by estimated human activity and natural climate

forcing than by internal variability alone.bThese wide-ranging sets of analyses tie

together findings from traditionally disparate disciplines including hydrology,

glaciology, and ecology.

Two recent studies demonstrate progress made in improved understanding of climate

influences on ozone distribution. Using satellite measurements corroborated by surface

measurements, one study found increases in ozone in the Antarctic middle stratosphere

during southern hemisphere summer (December). Model simulations showed that

these increases were caused by the delayed transition from dynamic springtime

conditions to more stable summer conditions due to the springtime ozone hole. The

continuation of springtime dynamics forces descent of ozone-rich air from higher levels

of the atmosphere to the lower, mid-stratosphere (about 30-km altitude). This study

also found that future greenhouse gas increases would produce similar ozone increases.6

The second study found that doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) caused a strengthening

of the circulation responsible for the global distribution of ozone. The results of this

study reveal that total ozone will increase at high latitudes of the Northern and

Southern Hemispheres, and decrease in the Tropics.7

In the past decade, measurements from a variety of platforms, including satellites and

ocean buoys, show warming in the top layers of the ocean, with strong evidence that

the warming is due to increases in human-produced greenhouse gases.1 Ocean heat

storage is the largest component of the Earth’s climate system for storing the energy

imbalance between the sources and sinks of thermal energy. Even though the methods

of observations are quite different, the matching magnitude and annual variability of

10

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

b Climate forcing is a process that directly changes the average energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system by affecting the

balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing or “back” radiation.
the satellite-derived energy imbalance and the ocean heat storage is considered to be

quite remarkable and lends confidence to the interpretation of the underlying climate

process.8

The basic research conducted in CCSP Goal 1 is directly relevant to society. An

example is work on identifying relationships between hurricane activity and climate

variability and change. Theoretical and modeling studies suggest that increasing tropical

sea surface temperatures are likely to be associated with more intense, but not

necessarily more frequent, hurricanes.9 Over the North Atlantic Ocean, there is strong

observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity since 1970

that is correlated with increasing sea surface temperatures.10 However, in basins other

than the North Atlantic, trends in tropical cyclone activity have varied considerably

during this period, although most basins have also experienced warming sea surface

temperatures.11 In the Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone genesis regions, the sea

surface temperature changes appear to be due to a combination of natural variations

and anthropogenic forcing.12 Aside from differences between basins, results of tropical

cyclone trend calculations appear sensitive to the length of the observational record

and the techniques used to identify and characterize hurricanes. Consequently,

considerable debate remains over present abilities to detect global trends in tropical

cyclone activity.13

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the

Earth’s climate and related systems.

In making long-term climate projections, an understanding of the factors responsible

for global environmental change is necessary. These forcing factors include greenhouse

gases, land-cover changes, tiny airborne particles (aerosols), and solar variability. As in

the previous goal, the following examples of progress toward CCSP Goal 2 result

from the integrated focus of multiple CCSP research elements.

11

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Recent climate warming has been particularly intense in boreal and Arctic regions,

leading to concern that increasing air temperature in these ecosystems may indirectly

increase the incidence of forest fires. Beyond the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse

gases, understanding the consequences of large-scale fires for climate is challenging

due to the many additional ways in which they influence the atmosphere and surface.

A recent study in Alaska found that there was intensification in the climate warming in

the first year after a major fire but a slight decrease in the local climate warming when

averaged over the 80 years of the study. The long-term result, which was primarily

due to plant regrowth increasing the summer reflectivity of the burned surface,

appeared to be more significant than the fire-emitted greenhouse gases.14The result

suggests that future increases in wildfire in some parts of the boreal zone of Alaska

may have different feedbacks to global warming than previously thought.

CCSP’s interdisciplinary research on the carbon cycle has produced a set of analyses

using long-term observations of several young and mature forests. Results from this

work show that forest carbon storage has been increasing in these ecosystems and is

not in balance with the carbon lost by respiration and decay. This result is contrary to

the contemporary concept of near balance of carbon sources and sinks in mature

forests.15The gain in forest carbon is typical of findings from U.S.-based large-scale

networks, as well as observations made in mature forests in China. Evidence is

therefore mounting that these sinks for atmospheric CO2 offer significant potential for

modulating the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase.16

In western states, large changes in land cover and land use have occurred over the past

century, with rapidly expanding urbanization along the Pacific coast and extensive

agricultural development inland. Researchers exploring the effects of urbanization and

agriculture on regional climate have

found that irrigated agriculture in

California tended to lower average

and maximum near-surface air

temperatures, while conversion of

natural vegetation to urban areas

tended to increase near-surface air

temperatures. The surface temperature

changes and their associated effects on

the atmosphere also caused changes in

the regional airflow. Overall, it was

found that conversion of natural

vegetation to irrigated agriculture has

likely had a larger effect on the climate

12

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
of California than urban growth, but increased conversion of irrigated land to urban/

suburban development could alter this conclusion.17

Scientists are concerned that increased permafrost thawing due to warming in Arctic

regions could cause the release of substantial amounts of carbon long held in the

frozen tundra. There appear to be two potential mechanisms for the carbon to reach

the atmosphere: drainage of the carbon-rich river flow into the Arctic Ocean with

subsequent emission, and direct respiration or recycling of the newly thawed carbon.

Measurements made in the Yukon River basin in northern Canada have shown that the

latter process predominates.18

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related

systems may change in the future.

The accuracy of estimates of future Earth system conditions at time scales ranging

from months to centuries and at spatial scales ranging from regional to global has

been significantly improved by CCSP research. The primary tools for Earth system

prediction and projection are computer models that reflect the best available knowledge

of Earth system processes. The following examples demonstrate the integration of

observations and modeling necessary to contribute to the progress being made in

CCSP Goal 3.

For a model to produce a realistic climate projection, it must include realistic

representations of physical processes such as cloudiness, precipitation, and solar energy.

Recent innovative studies using newly developed, detailed models of cloud processes

that are coupled with a global climate model provide results that are significantly

more consistent with observations than traditional cloud modeling techniques.19The

incorporation of improved cloud representation in climate models is expected to

reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and regional water cycle and

surface climate. 

Energy from the sun not reflected back to space provides the driving energy to Earth’s

weather and climate systems. Clouds are a major component in the global reflectance of

sunlight. Year-to-year variability in the global reflectance is dominated by the variability

of cloudiness in the tropics.20 On the other hand, scientists have recently found little

change in the year-to-year variability of reflectance at middle and high latitudes

despite decreases in the highly reflective snow and sea ice cover. This result appears to

be due to the compensating increase in cloud cover balancing the decreasing surfacelevel reflectance. Clouds continue to provide the largest source of uncertainty in

model estimates of climate sensitivity, although a recent study finds evidence that, in

13

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
most climate models used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC), clouds provide a positive feedback.21

Analyses of climate model simulations generated for the IPCC Fourth Assessment have

identified several additional characteristics of climate change projections common to

all of the models.22 Examples of these robust model projections include strong subtropical drying, weakening of large-scale tropical atmospheric motions, and expansion

of the poleward upper atmospheric wind pattern known as the Hadley circulation. 

In another study, several models were

used to investigate the effects of the

freshwater input from melting ice and

glaciers on the currents in the North

Atlantic.23These currents are important

due to their large-scale transport of heat.

The study concluded that, in response

to expected levels of freshwater input

in the northern North Atlantic, the

average modeled large-scale deep

ocean current weakens by about 30%

by the end of the century. All models

simulate some weakening of this deep

circulation, but no model simulates a

complete shutdown of it.

CCSP researchers also use the geological record to test and apply climate models,

particularly in cases where that knowledge has a bearing on climate change processes

relevant to current society. One such analysis involves the largest known extinction in

Earth’s history, which took place approximately 250 million years ago at the PermianTriassic boundary when approximately 95% of marine and 75% of terrestrial species

were lost. In this study, a climate model simulation indicated that the elevated levels

of CO2 during this period led to climatic conditions inhospitable to both marine and

terrestrial life.24 It is hypothesized that a critical level of high-latitude warming was

reached where the connection of oxygen-rich surface waters to the deep ocean was

dramatically reduced—thus leading to a shutdown of marine biologic activity, which

in turn led to increased atmospheric CO2 and accelerated warming. 

The historical record provides a broader set of observations to test and apply climate

models to help reduce uncertainty in their future projections. A recent study used a

simple model to attempt to reproduce paleoclimate reconstructions of Northern

14

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
Hemisphere temperature over the past seven centuries in response to estimated solar,

volcanic, and greenhouse gas forcing during this period.25This study suggests that, for

the current century, very high climate sensitivities predicted by some models for a

doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are less likely than previously

thought.

The projections made by CCSP research pertain not just to physical climate, but also

to other components of the Earth system, including atmospheric chemistry.

Continuing research has provided an estimate that the recovery of the Antarctic ozone

hole will occur approximately 10 to 20 years later than the previous estimate of

2050.26 As a result of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the use of ozonedepleting substances (ODS) has been greatly reduced. Improved understanding of

atmospheric dynamics now gives 2001 as a better estimate of when the ODS peak

occurred in the Antarctic stratosphere. This date is later than had been estimated

previously and results in a longer projected time scale for recovery back to pre-1980

(unperturbed) levels of ODS.

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and

managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.

Significant advances have been made in understanding the potential impacts of climate

change. One of the characteristics of CCSP research is the use of many different

sources of information, including analyses utilizing prehistoric information, direct

observations, and model-based projections. Recent research also accounts for the

dynamic nature of the response of human and natural systems to climate change. This

research encompasses a wide range of potential impacts on societal needs such as

water, health, and agriculture, as well as potential impacts on natural terrestrial and

marine ecosystems. The integrated approach to developing the understanding sought

in CCSP Goal 4 is illustrated in the following examples. This integration is occurring

under several synthesis and assessment products (SAPs), particularly the seven products

15

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
under Goal 4. One example is the integration within SAP 4.1 that combines census

population data, topographic elevation, shore protection, and land-use information to

study the potential socioeconomic impact of various rates of sea-level rise.

Tools and research resulting from carbon cycle science are highly relevant to carbon

management as demonstrated by a recent study that estimated the spatial variability of

net primary production and potential biomass accumulation over the conterminous

United States.27This study’s model-based predictions indicate a potential to remove

carbon from the atmosphere at a rate of 0.3 GtC per year through afforestationc of

low-production crop and rangeland areas. This rate of carbon sequestrationd would

offset about one-fifth of the annual fossil fuel emissions of carbon in the United States. 

The changing adaptability of coastal marshes is illustrated by the study of a coastal

ecosystem. In a Chesapeake Bay marsh ecosystem, rising sea level, increasing CO2,

and high rainfall were shown to interact and improve the growth of a relatively tall

bulrush at the expense of a hay-like cordgrass that grows in thick mats.28 Such

changes in species composition, caused by interacting global change factors, may

influence the capacity of coastal marshes to rise in elevation at the pace required to

keep abreast of sea-level rise because of species-specific differences in their ability to

trap sediment and organic material. 

Another example of the ecological consequences of climate change affecting adaptability

involves the devastation of millions of acres of western U.S. and Canadian pines by

bark beetles during the warmth and drought of 2000 to 2004. Recent modeling and

observations revealed that beetles invading northernmost lodgepole pine trees are

now only a few miles from previously pristine jack pine populations.29This may create

a direct pathway of invasion to valued pine forests in the eastern United States and

Canada. 

CCSP’s integrated approach to understanding the sensitivity and adaptability of natural

ecosystems to climate change has also been applied in remote regions. The West

Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing some of the largest, most rapid warming on Earth,

which is causing loss of sea ice and increased snow precipitation. In turn, these

changes are having major contrasting impacts on the adaptability of different penguin

species. For example, in the vicinity of Anvers Island near the West Antarctic Peninsula

during the last 3 decades, populations shifted south, so that local abundance of the icedependent and snow-intolerant Adelie penguins decreased by 65% (currently about

16

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

c Afforestation is the process of converting open land into forest by planting trees.

d Carbon sequestration is the process that removes carbon from the atmosphere, capturing and storing it by natural or artificial means.
5000), while the abundance of Chinstraps and Gentoos

increased by 2,730% and 4,600% (currently about 300

and 650), respectively.30 Climate warming in the Canadian

Arctic has caused significant declines in total cover and

thickness of sea ice and progressively earlier ice breakup in

some areas. These changes affect the polar bear populations,

causing them to extend their normal fast for longer periods

during the open-water season.31

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage

risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

A substantial investment in basic research focused on global environmental variability

and change has provided a significant set of opportunities for applying this knowledge

in local, regional, and national planning. To explore and communicate the potential uses

and limits of this knowledge, CCSP is using three approaches: developing scientific

syntheses and assessments; exploring adaptive management and planning capabilities;

and developing methods to support climate change policy inquiries. A few noteworthy

examples of the progress made by CCSP in pursuing these approaches and actively

working with the user community to apply this knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities are described below.

CCSP scientists developed and documented a “water supply stress index” that

calculates water shortage risks across the conterminous United States. The index is

based on models and observations that integrate the effects of climate, land cover, and

current water uses by municipalities and industries on water supply.32The water supply

stress index and the methods associated with it will be used by local and regional

decisionmakers to quantify the likelihood of future water shortages under changing

climate, water, and land uses, for determining adaptation practices.

Incorporation of the subsurface water table into regional

climate models is important, since land-cover changes produce

significant effects on the water table and the hydrologic cycle.

Shallow water tables can be either a sink or source of water to

the surface soil depending on the relative balance of infiltration

versus evaporation.33 Recent studies using detailed observations

and regional climate models have found that the fraction of

rainfall that either recharges groundwater or ends up as

streamflow tends to decrease when the fraction of land devoted

to agriculture increases. This result suggests that intensive

17

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
agriculture can amplify surface water stresses, particularly during drought

conditions.34

An example of regional decision support is the work carried out by the Consortium

for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA), which is providing data and tools to help

decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by

potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly web

site, CARA has organized data on climate (historical records and future projections

from seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental

variables to help inform local and regional decisionmakers (see <www.cara.psu.edu>).

The CARA tools and tutorials are designed to help decisionmakers understand the

issues related to land-use and climate change by gathering, organizing, and presenting

information for evaluating alternative mitigation strategies.

A workshop involving scientists and managers, co-led by several CCSP agencies under

the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, resulted in the publication of A Reef

Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching.35The combined research results among

state/territorial, Federal, academic, nongovernmental, and international scientists

concluded that warming sea surface temperatures are a key factor in mass coral

bleaching events. The Guide provides managers with strategies to support the natural

resilience of coral reefs in the face of climatic change.

CCSP researchers have developed new metrics for estimating greenhouse gas emissions

and carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors.36These sectors can

reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by increasing carbon sequestration

in biomass and soils, by reducing fossil fuel emissions through use of biomass fuels, and

by substituting agricultural and forestry products that require less energy than other

materials to produce. The DOE’s National Greenhouse Gas Registry is using the new

metrics as the basis for reporting greenhouse gas information from the agricultural

and forestry sectors (see <www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/frntvrgg.html>).

CCSP FY 2008 KEY INTERAGENCY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIVITIES

The program’s long-term vision, mission, goals, and objectives are described in the

CCSP Strategic Plan. Implementation of this long-term plan occurs through agency

activities that often benefit significantly from ongoing CCSP-facilitated coordination.

CCSP has identified several key areas for FY 2008 that require particularly strong

interagency coordination to achieve success; they cannot be adequately addressed by

one agency alone. Although these priorities are only a small part of the overall program,

18

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
they are vital mechanisms through which CCSP will continue to integrate agency

activities to create knowledge and products that are greater than the sum of the

individual agency inputs. The development of CCSP interagency priorities is the result

of a variety of planning processes, including planning processes within the 13 CCSP

agencies (see Appendix A) and interagency planning conducted by the CCSP

Interagency Committee (i.e., the Subcommittee on Global Change Research) and its

subsidiary Interagency Working Groups. CCSP’s interagency planning is informed by

external advice from several NRC committees. CCSP’s annual implementation

priorities are logical evolutions of the program’s interagency approaches to the

priorities established in the CCSP Strategic Plan. The selection criteria for these

activities require that they are founded upon a solid intellectual basis and are of high

scientific quality; require coordination and/or integration across multiple CCSP

agencies to create value-added products and services that cannot be created by any

one agency alone; improve the characterization of key areas of scientific uncertainty

and/or improve decision-support tools; provide a timely response to a particular need

or leveraging opportunity; and are cost-effective.

The interagency implementation priorities generally represent only a fraction of

CCSP’s portfolio. The focus areas are listed here in an order similar to the research

elements described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. However, due to their integrative

nature they do not follow a one-to-one mapping to the research elements.

Understanding Aerosol Forcing and Interactions with Clouds and

Non-CO 2 Trace Gases.The key objectives of this set of activities

are to quantify the effects of atmospheric aerosols (tiny airborne

particles) on radiation and on clouds, to quantify the modification

of the radiation balance by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases, and to

quantify the influence of the chemistry of the lower atmosphere

on both aerosols and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases. Research will

include use of newly initiated and enhanced measurements of

water vapor in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere

and water vapor’s role in altering climate directly and via its

influence on aerosols, cirrus clouds, and chemical composition.

Studies on the potential contributions of air pollution and

aviation to global climate forcing will be extended. In addition,

field missions are planned to understand the properties of

absorbing aerosols and their precursors and their transport to

the Arctic polar region as a part of the International Polar Year,

in an effort to quantify the contribution of absorbing aerosols

to the melting of the Arctic ice.

19

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability. By combining global

observations of the atmosphere, ocean, land, biosphere, and ice-covered areas with

models that dynamically couple these components of the Earth system, it will be possible

to produce internally consistent maps (i.e., “analyses”) of the state of the planet. Time

series of such analyses will allow researchers to better explain observed changes in the

climate system and will allow decisionmakers to develop more informed options to

address future changes. Additional reanalysis activities in FY 2008 will include an

improved treatment of the hydrological cycle and efforts to extend atmospheric

reanalyses to span the entire 20th century. Further advances in producing integrated

Earth system analyses will require progress in ongoing efforts to construct models

that properly simulate the interactions among the physical and biogeochemical

processes in the climate system.

Carbon Cycle Research Integration. CCSP’s carbon cycle research element will integrate

the research efforts of the North American Carbon Program and relevant aspects of

the Ocean Carbon and Climate Change Program to better quantify and understand

the carbon budget of North America and adjacent ocean basins, including terrestrial,

freshwater, oceanic, and atmospheric sources and sinks, the underlying processes, and

the dynamics that determine influences on atmospheric CO2 and methane (CH4). This

integration will clarify and reduce uncertainties about the North American carbon

budget and provide better information for decisions about carbon management.

Improved observations, methods, and understanding of carbon cycling will be integrated

into global models and analysis systems to provide more reliable capabilities for studying

and predicting future changes in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 and carbon storage by

terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems.

Abrupt Changes in a Warming Climate. Paleoclimate research indicates that major shifts

in regional and global climate have occurred on time scales as short as decades, severely

affecting rainfall patterns, droughts, ecosystems, and

human civilizations.1 Assessing the potential for future

abrupt changes and implementing the capability to

diagnose and predict their occurrence will require

concerted efforts to improve Earth system analysis,

decadal forecasting capabilities, reconstructions of

past abrupt climate change, and understanding of

societal impacts. Activities in FY 2008 will emphasize

model experiments designed to test potential

mechanisms for abrupt change, and paleoclimate

research on patterns, causes, and impacts of past

abrupt climate events. Both activities will help set

20

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
priorities for enhanced monitoring with the goal of developing an abrupt change early

warning system. These efforts are integrated with the Ocean Research Priorities Plan

near-term priority on the meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean.2

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Biodiversity and Productivity of Ecosystems.

Research will include new activities on two topics of urgency: (1) vulnerability of

coastal ecosystems, both terrestrial and aquatic, to climate-related changes, including

sea-level rise, increased sedimentation and runoff, increased storm frequency or

intensity, saltwater intrusion, and oceanic warming; and (2) warming-induced

changes in high-latitude and high-elevation ecosystems, including changes in species

composition, alterations in the timing of water availability, migration of the tree line,

retreat of glaciers, and loss of permafrost and sea ice. Both these topics require

additional research on underlying ecological processes and development of models

linking geophysical and ecological phenomena.

Integration of Water Cycle Observations, Research, and Modeling.The FY 2008 interagency

priority for the global water cycle is the initiation of a multi-year activity that is

planned to include a series of integrated projects, each building upon the experience

gained from previous years. FY 2008 activities will focus on a few regional case studies

in which both models and measurements will be used to develop closure in the

terrestrial water cycle budget for those regions. This multi-agency CCSP project will

utilize existing regional sites to improve observational capabilities (surface, subsurface,

and remote sensing). A range of climate zones will be considered to provide a suitable

research framework that concurrently addresses climate/water cycle science and

water resource management issues. Enabling links with other projects will be

explored through the Hydrological Information System portal, including data/product

delivery to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). In future

years, an expansion in scope is envisaged to encompass time scales from seasonal to

interannual and spatial scales from local to regional to global. This activity is designed

to benefit both the broader research community as well as the operational applications

community through a more accurate quantification of the water cycle and improved

mathematical formulations of physical processes. Results will be incorporated into

climate and hydrologic prediction models.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Climate: Interactions and Critical Observations.

Land-use and land-cover priorities include understanding historic, current, and

potential future land-use and land-cover change patterns, dynamics, and drivers;

understanding the mutual effects and feedbacks between climate variability and land

use/land cover; and forecasting environmental, social, economic, and human health

consequences. All of these land-use and land-cover change priority issues directly

21

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
influence climate by affecting atmospheric trace gas composition and surface

reflectance, and are thus critical to a broad spectrum of CCSP interests. The collection,

archiving, and subsequent scientific use of global Landsat data from 2005 to 2006 is a

priority for FY 2008, through the “mid-decadal Landsat data collection effort.” The

FY 2008 priority also includes support for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission that is

under development to continue the collection of global Landsat data. Without these

satellite observations, the current pace of discovery and innovation in global land-use

and land-cover change climate research would not be possible.

Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships. Building trust and

collaborative efforts with stakeholders to help them take advantage of climate information,

especially in the area of drought planning, is a long-term effort that requires consistent

and continual interactions. Research in this area will focus on the development of

methods, models, and mechanisms for integrating climate information into analyses of

the social and economic ramifications of drought as well as the policy and decisionmaking

processes in the face of drought. Scientific data products will include paleoclimatic

and historical information about drought and its impacts, seasonal-to-interannual scale

observations and predictions of drought, and longer term projections of decadal-tocentennial scale variability and change. Social and economic impact analyses including

historical perspectives and near-term trends such as projections of water conflicts,

water demand, population changes, and land-use changes will be used to augment the

physical science analyses. This effort is linked to NIDIS.

DECISION SUPPORT: INFORMATION TO SUPPORT POLICY

DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

CCSP sponsors and conducts research that is ultimately related to policy and adaptive

management decisionmaking. CCSP’s decision-support approach is guided by several

general principles, including: 

• Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders

• Explicit treatment of uncertainties

• Transparent public review of analysis questions, methods, and draft results

• Evaluation of lessons learned from ongoing and prior decision-support and

assessment activities.

22

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
Synthesis and Assessment Products

CCSP is generating synthesis and assessment products that integrate research results

focused on key issues and related questions frequently raised by decisionmakers.

Current evaluations of the science can be used for informing public debate, policy

development, and adaptive management decisions and for defining and setting the

future direction and priorities of the program. The synthesis and assessment products

constitute an important new form of topic-driven integration of U.S. global change

assessment efforts. These CCSP products will be U.S. Government reports, subject to

the provisions of the Information Quality Act (Section 515 of the Treasury and

General Government Appropriations Act of 2001) and the Federal Advisory

Committee Act Amendments of 1997 [P.L. 105-153, Sec. 2(A), (B), Dec. 17, 1997,

111 Stat. 2689]. 

The synthesis and assessment products are generated by researchers in a process that

involves review by experts, public comment from stakeholders and the general public,

and final approval by the departments/agencies involved in CCSP. Formal endorsement

of the products by the Federal Government enhances their value for decisionmakers

and the public at large. The program has prepared guidelines that describe steps to be

followed in each of three phases of the preparation process: developing the prospectus,

drafting and revising, and final approval and publication. This methodology for product

development facilitates involvement of the research community and user groups in

ensuring that the products are focused in a useful fashion and meet the highest standards

of scientific excellence. The guidelines also encourage transparency by ensuring that

public information about the status of the products will be provided through the

Federal Register, on the CCSP web site, and other means throughout the review and

clearance process. If further clarification of specific issues is required, the NRC will

provide advice on an as-needed basis to the lead agency responsible for the preparation

of each product. 

The first two products generated through this

process have been completed and several others

are nearing completion. Up-to-date information

on the status of all SAPs can be obtained from

<www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap>,

including information on opportunities for

public comment on draft products. A listing of

each of the 21 synthesis and assessment products

by CCSP goal is provided in Chapter 7 of this

report.

23

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
“Lessons Learned” in Decision Support and Assessment

To build on the experiences of earlier assessment activities, CCSP requested that the

NRC carry out an analysis of global change assessments that have addressed topics

broadly similar to those encompassed by CCSP. The study,

which was released in early 2007, included a comparative

analysis of past assessments that address issues directly related

to the science and technical issues of CCSP. The committee

concluded that global change assessments are critical for

informing decisionmakers. In identifying essential properties

of a successful assessment it stressed that future assessment

processes must communicate relevant information to the

user, address the technical quality of the information, and

demonstrate fairness and impartiality in the assessment

process. The report identifies a number of essential elements

that increase the probability that an assessment will effectively

inform decisionmakers and other target audiences. CCSP will take into account the

findings of the NRC in its future assessment activities. 

OUTLINE OF RESEARCH ELEMENT ACTIVITIES

The CCSP-participating agencies coordinate scientific research through a set of linked

interdisciplinary research elements and cross-cutting activities that encompass a wide

range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. Chapters 3 to15 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan contain more detailed discussions of the research elements as well

as activities that cut across all areas of the program. This report focuses on highlights

of recent research and program plans for FY 2008.

Atmospheric Composition.The composition of the atmosphere at global and regional

scales influences climate, air quality, stratospheric ozone, and precipitation, which in

turn affect human health and the vitality of ecosystems. Research and observational

activities coordinated and supported by CCSP are being used to assess how human

activities and natural processes affect atmospheric composition, and how that

understanding may be used to inform decisionmaking in the United States and abroad.

In FY 2008, emphasis will be given to studies of interactions between aerosols and

non-CO2 gases, enhanced measurements of atmospheric water vapor, and interactions

of pollutants with climate change. Special emphasis will be given to the climate

impacts of pollutants associated with aviation.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 3.

24

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
Climate Variability and Change (including Climate Modeling). Recognizing that the

climate system operates seamlessly across a wide spectrum of time scales, CCSPsupported research encompasses both short-term climate variability and longer term

climate change. Addressing the interaction of climate processes across time scales

poses challenges not only in designing observation systems to monitor the climate

system adequately, but also in constructing models that can properly reproduce its

past and confidently project its future behavior. Earth system models, in combination

with global Earth observations, must produce internally consistent maps of atmospheric,

oceanic, land surface, and ice conditions both in near real-time and retrospectively.

These maps, or “analyses,” will provide decisionmakers with tools to visualize the

evolving state of the full climate system over the entire planet, and researchers with

the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 4 and 10.

Global Water Cycle. Research associated with this element involves studies of the crucial

role the water cycle plays both in climate variability, climate change, and the influence

climate has on aspects of the global water cycle for which society and nature critically

depend. Through countless interactions in the Earth system, the global water cycle

integrates physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain ecosystems and

influence climate and related global change. The ultimate goal of the CCSP water

cycle research is to provide a better foundation for decisions and investments by

policymakers, managers, and individuals. Achieving this goal requires a program of

activities that test predictions and data products in real decision contexts, demonstrate

techniques and their effectiveness to potential users, and provide tools and strategies

to transfer the science from the experimental realm to operations. In FY 2008, emphasis

will be given to coordinated observations and modeling of selected sites, at the river

basin or catchment scale, to improve understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes

leading to better closure constraints on water budgets at this scale. The improvements

to land surface and hydrological models resulting from this research will lead to an

enhanced ability to more accurately represent global change projections at the regional

scales that affect water resources and other water cycle-dependent applications sectors.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 5.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. Land use and land cover are linked to climate and

weather in complex ways and are critical inputs for modeling greenhouse gas emissions,

carbon balance, and ecosystems. Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) studies

have provided critical inputs to large-scale biomass and forest cover assessments;

future LULCC goals include reducing uncertainties in biomass estimates, understanding

regional heterogeneities in changes, and quantifying linkages and feedbacks between

LULCC, climate change, and other human and environmental components. Research

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
that examines historic, current, and future LULCC, its drivers, feedbacks to climate,

and its environmental, social, economic, and human health consequences is therefore of

utmost importance and often requires interagency and intergovernmental cooperation.

Research plans focus on how management practices may change as climate and

conservation policies change, and feedbacks related to environmental, social, economic,

and human health.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 6.

Global Carbon Cycle. Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 are major drivers

of climate change. The global carbon cycle element of the CCSP seeks to better

quantify and understand the dynamics of the global carbon cycle that determine CO2

and CH4 fluxes and carbon storage in terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. Carbon

cycle processes depend on climate, thus linking carbon cycle and climate change

analyses is critical. Carbon cycle research involves multiple disciplines and extends

over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Major multi-agency activities

include the North American Carbon Program (NACP), an effort to describe and

reduce uncertainties about the North American carbon budget and underlying

processes, and the Ocean Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC) Program, a research

effort aimed at determining how climate change will affect the future behavior of the

oceanic carbon sink. In FY 2008, the NACP will address key gaps and uncertainties in

the carbon syntheses developed previously, and aspects of the OCCC and NACP will

be coordinated to better quantify and understand the roles of adjacent ocean basins in

the North American carbon budget. NASA will launch the Orbiting Carbon

Observatory (OCO) to provide, for the first time, consistent atmospheric carbon

observations globally from space, and carbon data assimilation systems will begin to

derive estimates of carbon sources and sinks from these measurements.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 7.

Ecosystems.This research element studies the potential effects of global change on

goods and services provided by aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, using observations,

experiments, modeling, and syntheses to focus on critical emerging questions. Newly

initiated projects in terrestrial ecosystems are addressing cause-and-effect relationships

between climatic variability and change and the distribution, abundance, and productivity

of native and invasive organisms. Further, research is continuing into understanding

how increasing CO2 levels affect plants and microorganisms. Research in a

Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is generating data to evaluate and forecast effects of

warming, changes in fishing pressure, and eutrophication on economically important

estuarine ecosystems. In the ocean, coral reef research is helping scientists and

managers identify climatic and non-climatic stressors and thereby better manage these

important ecosystems.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 8.

26

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contributions

and Responses. Decisionmakers and other interested citizens need reliable sciencebased information to make informed judgments regarding policy and actions to

address the risks and opportunities of variability and change in climate and related

systems. A wide variety of CCSP decision-support resources and related research on

human contributions and responses is targeted at that objective. The outcomes of

these activities are intended to inform public discussion of climate-related issues and

to scientifically assess and expand options for mitigation of and adaptation to climate

variability and change. The most prominent of CCSP’s ongoing decision-support

activities is its synthesis and assessment process that involves the generation of 21

different products intended to support public discussion of climate science issues of

particular importance to U.S. decisions. CCSP’s research on human contributions and

responses to global environmental variability and change includes analyses of human

drivers of change and their potential impact, societal resilience and ways of reducing

vulnerability, approaches for improving the ability of decisionmakers to utilize scientific

information, and the effects of global environmental change on human health. CCSP’s

research is paying particular attention to aspects of global change that have greatest

relevance to society, including drought and extreme or abrupt climate events.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 9 and 11.

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System. CCSP provides active stewardship for

observations that document the evolving state of the climate system, allow for improved

understanding of its changes, and contribute to improved predictive capability for

society. Some of these observations are not part of the CCSP budget (e.g., operational

satellites) but are crucial to its success. A core CCSP activity is U.S. participation in the

broad-based strategy of the international Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

in monitoring atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial domains with an appropriate

balance of in situ and remotely sensed observations. In FY 2008, observing activities by

CCSP agencies will focus on observing the polar climate as part of the International

Polar Year (IPY) series of international cooperative studies. The IPY plans to advance

polar observations by establishing a variety of new multidisciplinary observatories

using the latest technologies in sensor web (network of spatially distributed sensor

platforms that wirelessly communicate with each other) and power-efficient designs.

Data from these, as well as more traditional surface- and space-based observatories,

will initiate long-term, high-quality sustained measurements needed to detect future

climate change. The United States plans to increase its efforts on observations of the

polar atmosphere, ice, and ocean, as well as leverage its investments in polar research

with international partners. A continuing challenge to CCSP agencies is ensuring the

long-term integrity and understandability of data products provided by remote sensing

and in situ observing systems.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 12 and 13.

27

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Communication. CCSP’s member agencies support a broad array of communication

initiatives. CCSP has developed a strategy and implementation plan for helping to

coordinate and facilitate these activities. These efforts are intended to improve public

understanding of climate change research by disseminating the results of CCSP activities

credibly and effectively, and by making CCSP science findings and products easily

available to a diverse set of audiences. CCSP facilitates communication of the results

of individual agencies, as well as providing coordination in communicating the results

of climate activities of the Federal Government.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 14.

International Research and Cooperation. CCSP, through its working groups including the

Interagency Working Group on International Research and Cooperation, participates in

and provides input to major international scientific and related organizations on behalf

of the U.S. Government and scientific community. CCSP also provides support to

maintain the central infrastructure of several international research programs and

international activities that complement CCSP and U.S. Government goals in climate

science.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 15.

28

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008
29

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers, Technical

Summary, and Frequently Asked Questions [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.C. Marquis,

K. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva,

Switzerland, 142 pp.

2) NSTC Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, 2007: Charting the Course for Ocean

Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation

Strategy. Washington, DC., 84 pp. Available at <ocean.ceq.gov/about/docs/orppfinal.pdf>.

3) Dirmeyer, P.A. and K.L. Brubaker, 2006: Trends in the Northern Hemisphere water cycle.

Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026359.

4) Rignot, E. and P. Kanagaratnam, 2006: Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice

Sheet. Science, 311, 986.

5) Velicognia, I. and J. Wahr, 2006: Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in

Antarctica. Science, 311, 1754.

6) Stolarski, R.S., A.R. Douglass, M. Gupta, P.A. Newman, S. Pawson, M.R. Schoeberl, and J.E.

Nielsen, 2006: An ozone increase in the Antarctic summer stratosphere: A dynamical response to

the ozone hole. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L21805, doi:10.1029/2006GL026820.

7) Jiang, X., S.J. Eichelberger, D.L. Hartmann, and Y.L. Yung, 2007: Influence of doubled CO2 on

ozone via changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (in press).

8) Wong, T., B.A. Wielicki, R.B. Lee, III, G.L. Smith, and K.A. Bush, 2006: Re-examination of the

observed decadal variability of Earth radiation budget using altitude-corrected ERBE/ERBS nonscanner WFOV data. Journal of Climate, 19, 4028-4040.

9) Emanuel, K., 2006: Climate and tropical cyclone activity: a new model downscaling approach.

Journal of Climate, 19, 4797-4802.

10) Hoyos, C.D., P. Agudelo, P. Webster, and J. Curry, 2006: Deconvolution of the factors leading to

the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science, 312, 94-97.

11) Kossin, J.P., K.R. Knapp, D.J. Vimont, R.J. Murnane, and B.A. Harper, 2007: A globally

consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(4), L04815,

doi:10.1029/2006GL028836.

12) Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T.P. Barnett,

J.S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A.

Meehl, S.C.B. Raper, R.W. Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington, 2006: Forced and

unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103, 13905-13910, doi:10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

13) Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme

tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454.

14) Randerson, J.T., H. Liu, M.G. Flanner, S.D. Chambers, Y. Jin, P.G. Hess, G. Pfister, M.C. Mack,

K.K. Treseder, L.R. Welp, F.S. Chapin, J.W. Harden, M.L. Goulden, E. Lyons, J.C. Neff, E.A.G.

Schuur, C.S. Zender, 2006: The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming. Science, 314,

1130-1132, doi:10.1126/science.1132075.

15) Zhou, G., S. Liu, Z. Li, D. Zhang, X. Tang, C. Zhou, J. Yan, and J. Mo, 2006: Old-growth forests

can accumulate carbon in soils. Science, 314, 1417, doi:10.1126/science.1130168.

16) Urbanski, S., C. Barford, S. Wofsy, C. Kucharik, E. Pyle, J. Budney, K. McKain, D. Fitzjarrald,

M. Czikowsky, and J.W. Munger, 2007: Factors controlling CO2 exchange on time scales from

hourly to decadal at Harvard Forest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, G02020,

doi:10.1029/2006JG000293.

17) Kueppers, L.M., M.A. Snyder, and L.C. Sloan, 2007: Irrigation cooling effect: Regional climate

forcing by land-use change. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L03703, doi:10.1029/2006GL028679.

18) Guo, L., and R.W. Macdonald, 2006: Source and transport of terrigenous organic matter in the

upper Yukon River: Evidence from isotope (δ13C, ∆14C, δ15N) composition of dissolved, colloidal,

and particulate phases. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB2011, doi:10.1029/2005GB002593.

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2008

CHAPTER REFERENCES
30

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

19) Ovtchinnikov, M., T. Ackerman, R. Marchand, and M. Khairoutdinov, 2006: Evaluation of the

multiscale modeling framework using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement

Program. Journal of Climate, 19, 1716-1729, doi:10.1175/JCLI3699.1.

20) Loeb, N.G., B.A. Wielicki, F.G. Rose, and D.R. Doelling, 2006: Variability in global top-ofatmosphere shortwave radiation between 2000 and 2005. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L03704,

doi:10.1029/2006GL028196.

21) Soden, B.J. and I.M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere

models. Journal of Climate, 19, 3354-3360.

22) Held, I. and B. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming.

Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.

23) Stouffer, R.J., J. Yin, J.M. Gregory, K.W. Dixon, M.J. Spelman, W. Hurlin, A.J. Weaver, M. Eby,

G.M. Flato, H. Hasumi, A. Hu, J.H. Jungclaus, I.V. Kamenkovich, A. Levermann, M. Montoya, S.

Murakami, S. Nawrath, A. Oka, W.R. Peltier, D.Y. Robitaille, A. Sokolov, G. Vettoretti, and S.L.

Weber, 2006: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and

future climate changes. Journal of Climate, 19, 1365-1387.

24) Kiehl, J.T. and C.A. Shields, 2005: Climate simulation of the latest Permian: Implications for

mass extinction. Geology, 33, 757-760.

25) Hegerl, G.C., T.J. Crowley, W.T. Hyde, and D.J. Frame, 2006: Climate sensitivity constrained by

temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature, 440(7087), 1029-1032,

doi:10.1038/nature04679.

26) Newman, P.A., E.R. Nash, S.R. Kawa, S.A. Montzka, and S.M. Schauffler, 2006: When will the

Antarctic ozone hole recover? Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025232.

27) Potter, C., S. Klooster, S. Hiatt, M. Fladeland, V. Genovese, and P. Gross, 2007: Satellite-derived

estimates of potential carbon sequestration through afforestation of agricultural lands in the

United States. Climatic Change, 80, 323-336, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9109-3.

28) Erickson, J.E., J.P. Megonigal, G. Peresta, and B.G. Drake, 2007: Salinity and sea level mediate

elevated CO2 effects on C3 and C4 plant interactions and tissue nitrogen in a Chesapeake Bay tidal

wetland. Global Change Biology, 13, 202-215, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01285.x.

29) Logan, J.A. and J.A. Powell, 2007: Ecological consequences of forest-insect disturbance altered

by climate change. In Climate Change in Western North America: Evidence and Environmental Effects

[Wagner, F.H. (ed.)]. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, Utah (in press).

30) Ducklow, H.W., K. Baker, D.G. Martinson, L.B. Quetin, R.M. Ross, R.C. Smith, S.E.

Stammerjohn, M. Vernet, and W. Fraser, 2007: Marine pelagic ecosystems: The West Antarctic

Peninsula. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 362(1477), 67-94,

doi:10.1098/rstb.2006.1955.

31) Stirling, I. and C.L. Parkinson, 2006: Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations

of polar bears in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic, 59(3), 261-275.

32) Sun, G., C. Li, C.C. Trettin, J. Lu, and S.G. McNulty, 2006: Simulating the biogeochemical cycles

in cypress wetland-pine upland ecosystems at a landscape scale with the wetland-DNDC model.

Hydrology and Management of Forested Wetlands, Proceedings of the International Conference 8-12 April

2006. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, St. Joseph, MI. 

33) Fan, Y., G. Miguez-Macho, C. Weaver, R. Walko, and A. Robock, 2007: Incorporating water table

dynamics in climate modeling, part I: water table observations and the equilibrium water table.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D10125, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008111.

34) Jayawickreme, D.H. and D.W. Hyndman, 2007: Evaluating the influence of land cover on

seasonal water budgets using NEXRAD rainfall and streamflow data. Water Resources Research, 43,

W02408, doi:10.1029/2005WR004460.

35) Marshall, P.A. and H.Z. Schuttenberg, 2006: A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. Great

Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Australia, 163 pp.

36) Birdsey, R.A. 2006. Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector.

Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1518-1524.

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2008

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
HIGHLIGHTS OF

RECENT RESEARCH AND

PLANS FOR FY 2008
32

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

1 Atmospheric

Composition

The composition of the atmosphere on global and regional scales influences climate,

air quality, the stratospheric ozone layer, and weather. The interactions have impacts on

human health and the vitality of ecosystems and hence have high relevance to society.

CCSP research on atmospheric composition focuses primarily on how human activities

and natural processes affect atmospheric composition, and how these changes in turn

relate to societal issues. The issues embrace multiple disciplines, cross many spatial

scales, and are highly interrelated. As a consequence, the CCSP research is a highly

coordinated endeavor that involves observational studies, laboratory investigations, and

diagnostic and modeling analyses to provide the timely, accurate, and useful scientific

information needed by decisionmakers in the United States and abroad. 

Strategic Research Questions

3.1 What are the climate-relevant chemical, microphysical,

and optical properties, and spatial and temporal

distributions, of human-caused and naturally occurring

aerosols? 

3.2 What are the atmospheric sources and sinks of the

greenhouse gases other than CO2 and the implications

for the Earth’s energy balance?

3.3 What are the effects of regional pollution on the global

atmosphere and the effects of global climate and

chemical change on regional air quality and

atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems?

3.4 What are the characteristics of the recovery of the

stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining

abundances of ozone-depleting gases and increasing

abundances of greenhouse gases?

3.5 What are the couplings and feedback mechanisms

among climate change, air pollution, and ozone layer

depletion, and their relationship to the health of

humans and ecosystems?

See Chapter 3 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
33

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Much progress has been made to date in understanding the role of atmospheric

composition in Earth’s climate. Efforts have focused on the areas of largest uncertainty

in understanding how atmospheric constituents other than carbon dioxide affect the

forcing of climate. Atmospheric fine particles (“aerosols”) can have either warming or

cooling effects, depending on many factors. CCSP research has made progress in

defining those factors, and has recently taken steps to address the next levels of

complexity in the issue by looking at the interactions of aerosols with clouds. For

FY 2008, CCSP’s Atmospheric Composition research will advance further to investigate

how water vapor, an ever-present climate gas, affects climate. Because water vapor is

linked to trace gases, aerosols, and clouds, CCSP research will be addressing some of

the most highly interrelated, multidimensional aspects of climate forcing.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The following paragraphs provide selected highlights of recent research supported by

CCSP-participating agencies.

Protecting Earth’s Ozone Layer Also Helped Slow Climate Change.1 A 1987 international

agreement to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals has also slowed global warming by

years, according to a new study by CCSP scientists and their colleagues. The double

effect occurred because compounds that destroy the atmosphere’s ozone layer also

act as greenhouse gases. The ozone layer shields the Earth from harmful ultraviolet

radiation. To protect this layer, nations around the world signed the Montreal Protocol

in 1987 to control the production and use of ozone-depleting substances. While

protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments have also cut in

half the amount of greenhouse warming caused by ozone-destroying chemicals that

would have occurred by 2010 had these substances continued to build unabated in

Earth’s atmosphere. The amount of warming that was avoided is equivalent to 7 to 12

years of rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere during the

2000 to 2010 time frame. Earlier studies showed that continued growth in ozonedepleting substances would lead to significant warming of Earth’s climate. The new

analysis quantifies the near-term climate benefits of controlling these substances (see

Figure 1).
Satellite Studies of Water Vapor and Ozone-Depleting Gas Transport.2 Analyses of Aura

satellite observations of water vapor and carbon monoxide at high altitudes, and their

comparison with model calculations, show that thunderstorms over Tibet provide a

pathway for water vapor and chemicals to travel from the lower

atmosphere into the stratosphere. Since water vapor has a

strong influence on climate, learning how it reaches the

stratosphere can help improve climate prediction models.

Similarly, understanding the pathways that ozone-depleting

chemicals can take to reach the stratosphere is essential for

understanding future threats to the ozone layer.

34

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Figure 1: Effectiveness of the 1987 Montreal Protocol Agreement. Past, present, and projected future abundances of ozone-depleting

substances in the stratosphere show the effectiveness of the 1987 Montreal Protocol agreement that reduced worldwide use of these

substances (panel a). Because ozone-depleting substances are also greenhouse gases, the Montreal Protocol and its amendments gave an

early start to slowing climate warming (panel b). The left axis (Climate Warming Ability) gives the climate forcing in units of watts per meter

squared (Wm-2). Credit: G.J.M. Velders, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; S.O. Andersen, USEPA; J.S. Daniel, NOAA;

D.W. Fahey, NOAA; and M. McFarland, DuPont Fluoroproducts.

E ec ve e o e 98 Mo e P o oco Ag eeme

C CO

O

Ye

w

w

Climate Warming Ability

b C m e E ec o G e

M m m

M

Amount Relative to 1980

M m

m

M

O

Ye

O o e Dep e o e S o p e e

C C M C m
Improved Estimates of the Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole.3 CCSP research has

improved our understanding of atmospheric motions that transport ozone-depleting

substances from the lower atmosphere to the Antarctic stratosphere, showing that this

transport is slower than previously estimated. As a result, the revised estimate for

recovery of Antarctic ozone will occur about 15 years later than previously thought, in

approximately 2065 instead of 2050. Such research during the ozone layer’s recovery

phase is crucial for policymakers. 

Completion of International Assessment of the Ozone Layer.4 CCSP researchers played

key roles in the completion of the international state-of-understanding assessment of

the ozone layer, which was provided in FY 2007 to the over 190 nations (including the

United States) that are Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol on Substances

that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006

summarizes current understanding regarding the extent of ozone depletion globally

and at the poles, describes the current abundances of ozone-depleting gases in the

atmosphere, assesses the future expectations for the

recovery of the ozone layer and its

relation to

possible

future climate

change, and

updates the

past, current,

and expected

future status

of ultraviolet

radiation at

the Earth’s surface. CCSP researchers were prominent in the leadership, preparation,

and review of the assessment—a 2-year endeavor that involved over 300 scientists from

31 countries around the globe. Global decisionmakers will consider the information in

the over 500 pages of the report as they discuss possible future actions to protect the

stratospheric ozone layer.

Field and Laboratory Investigations on Atmospheric Composition and Climate.5,6,7 A

combination of field experiments for the Mexico City area, the northeastern United

States, and other regions, together with laboratory studies, have better defined aerosol

formation processes, their properties, and their abundances. The studies have shown a

higher than expected formation of organic aerosols within the atmosphere, which

could potentially have a cooling effect. The research has also demonstrated the

influence of aging and composition on aerosol properties, and the ubiquity of

35

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
absorbing (warming) aerosols and black carbon in the atmosphere. The information

will enable more accurate calculation of aerosol influences on climate through their

absorption and scattering of light; results that will ultimately lead to more accurate

model estimates of the climatic role of aerosols. 

Research Indicates Importance of Anthropogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol.5 Organic

aerosol particles produced within the atmosphere, called “secondary organic aerosol”

(SOA), are important to climate because they interact with sunlight and affect the

energy balance of Earth’s atmosphere. About 90% of secondary organic aerosol is

currently believed to arise from the oxidation of natural volatile organic compounds

of biological origin. Volatile organic compounds produced by human activity have

therefore not been included in most modeling studies that assess the relevance of SOA

to climate forcing. However, a recent study examining aerosol production in Mexico

City indicates the presence of SOA production pathways not currently accounted for,

and suggests that the human-caused sources of SOA are much more important than

had been thought. Findings from this study (see Figure 2) show that amounts of SOA

produced for any reacted amount of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds are as

36

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Figure 2: Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) Formation in Mexico City. Current state-of-the-art

models under-predict the rapid formation of large amounts of SOA. Here, data are shown from Mexico

City on 9 April 2003. Solid dots indicate observations and shaded areas indicate the predicted SOAmass concentration attributed to classes of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds, such as

aromatics (red), alkenes (green), and alkanes (black). Credit: R. Volkamer, University of California, San

Diego; J.L. Jimenez, University of Colorado; F. San Martini, National Academy of Sciences; K. Dzepina,

University of Colorado; Q. Zhang, SUNY Albany; D. Salcedo, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de

Morelos, Cuernavaca, Mexico; L.T. Molina, University of California, San Diego; D.R. Worsnop, Aerodyne

Research; and M.J. Molina, University of California, San Diego (redrawn from Geophysical Research

Letters with permission from the American Geophysical Union).
much as eight times greater than predicted by current models. The research will

enable modelers to more accurately represent the atmospheric processes related to

SOA, ultimately leading to improved climate projections.

First Analyses from the Gulf of Mexico Climate Study.8 Several Federal agencies, with

significant university, private, and non-profit sector participation, completed a major

field mission, the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study, in

early FY 2007 and started analyzing the wealth of data that resulted from the mission.

This intensive field study took place in August through October 2006 in the Texas/

northwestern Gulf of Mexico region and was focused on providing a better

understanding of the sources and atmospheric processes responsible for the formation

and distribution of ozone and aerosols in the atmosphere and the influence that these

species have on the radiative forcing of climate regionally and globally, as well as their

impact on air quality, human health, and regional haze. Rapid synthesis reports on the

data were produced within the first few weeks after completion of the mission, an

unprecedented turnaround time for communication of the results of a field mission.

Early findings are helping to improve the simulation of the radiative forcing of climate

change by lower atmosphere ozone and aerosols.

Models Evaluated Using Saharan Dust Storm

Data.9 A large Saharan dust storm raged across

the North African desert in March 2006, the

largest storm in the last several years. The event

was captured by ground-based instruments of

the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)

Mobile Facility (AMF) that were deployed in

Niamey, Niger, during 2006, as well as by

instruments flown onboard the Meteosat-8

geostationary satellite platform, and instruments

onboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting

satellite platforms. The combination of AMF and

satellite observations provides the first wellsampled direct evaluations of the effects of the

dust storm on solar and thermal radiation across

the atmosphere, allowing researchers to test

their understanding of how dust affects the

radiant energy budget of the atmospheric

column. This information is a key component in

computer models that simulate both regional and

global weather and climate.

37

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Field and Modeling Studies of Aerosols and Clouds.10,11,12 A significant but inadequately

understood area of climate research involves the effects of aerosol on cloud formation,

cloud properties, and cloud lifetimes. An analysis of results from an interagency field

experiment, the Cloud Indirect Forcing Experiment, indicates that an increase in

aerosol produces higher concentrations of small drops in certain types of maritime

clouds. Aircraft and satellite observations of the changes to the maritime clouds show

that these microphysical effects result in brighter clouds that have a cooling effect by

reflecting more of the incident sunlight back to space. In other CCSP studies, modeling

of the effect of carbonaceous (soot-like) aerosol showed a reduction in cloudiness with

increasing aerosol amount, as a result of aerosol absorption modifying the heating of the

surface and the atmosphere. Finally, another modeling study showed no evidence for

aerosol increasing the lifetime of individual cumulus clouds as is usually hypothesized.

CCSP researchers also completed a FY 2007 field campaign over the U.S. Southern

Great Plains to study the interactions of atmospheric aerosols and fair weather cumulus

clouds downstream of a midsize urban area (Oklahoma City), the Cumulus Humilis

Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS). Observations from this campaign will aid in

development and evaluation of climate model parameterizations of cloud-aerosol

processes. CHAPS involved coordination of experiments between the CCSP

Atmospheric Composition and Global Water Cycle Interagency Working Groups. 

Phytoplankton Emissions and Cloud Properties over the Southern Ocean.13 Researchers

have long thought that emissions from marine phytoplankton influence aerosols and

clouds, but evidence for how this natural process occurs has been scarce. With satellite

remote-sensing data and a cloud parcel model, CCSP researchers have shown that over

a large area of the Southern Ocean, phytoplankton blooms are correlated in space and

time with increases in cloud droplet concentrations and decreases in effective cloud

droplet radius. The modeling study showed that the changes in cloud properties could

be attributed to the formation of organic aerosol particles arising from the oxidation

of a hydrocarbon (isoprene) that is emitted by phytoplankton. This effect seems to act

in concert with sulfur emissions from phytoplankton, which have previously received

much greater attention.

38

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

CCSP will continue to gather and analyze information through measurement, modeling,

and assessment studies to enhance understanding of atmospheric composition and of

the processes affecting atmospheric chemistry. Key research plans for FY 2008 follow.

Tropical Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling. CCSP researchers will begin their

analysis of data from a FY 2007 field mission in Costa Rica to study how climate is

linked to atmospheric composition and clouds in the tropical summer convective wet

season. This successful Tropical Composition Cloud and Climate Coupling field mission

involved three major aircraft (DC-8, ER-2, WB-57F) making over 20 research flights,

using some 60 instruments, involving balloon launches from three locations, and

engaging over 250 participants. Analyses will incorporate data from aircraft flights and

ground measurements, as well as Aura satellite observations, to address scientific

questions related to how clouds, aerosols, and trace gases influence radiative heating

in the very active tropical atmosphere. 

These activities will address Questions 3.1 and 3.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

International Polar Year Research on Arctic Aerosols and their Connections to Clouds,

Radiation, and Ice Melting.The long-range transport of anthropogenic pollution from

North America, Europe, and western Asia creates the aerosols associated with the socalled Arctic haze, a phenomenon that recurs every winter and spring. The direct and

indirect climate impacts of the aerosols can be quite different in the Arctic compared

to elsewhere, because high surface reflections from snow and ice mean that even

weakly absorbing aerosol layers can heat the Earth/atmosphere system in the Arctic.

As part of International Polar Year (IPY) research, CCSP scientists will conduct field

missions to investigate Arctic aerosol/climate connections in this unique environment.

Spring and summer measurements from satellites, aircraft, and the surface will be

made in collaboration with the

larger IPY study POLARCAT

(Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote

Sensing, Surface Measurements, and

Models of Climate, Chemistry

Aerosols, and Transport). Springtime

observations will be made to assess

the long-range transport of

anthropogenic pollution to the Arctic

and its contribution to Arctic Haze,

ozone chemistry, and the possible

connections between Arctic aerosols

39

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
and the melting of polar ice. Summertime observations

will be made to assess fire emissions from the boreal

forests. Analyses of these measurements will ultimately

improve the ability of current models to simulate the

influence of anthropogenic pollution and boreal fires

on the Arctic atmosphere and climate. In 2008, new

aerosol measurements made on the North Slope of

Alaska will be used to evaluate model simulations of

clouds and aerosol influences in the Arctic.

This activity will address Questions 3.1 and 3.3

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Completion of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product

2.3. CCSP researchers will finalize the second phase

of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.3,

Aerosol Properties and their Impacts on Climate. The

first phase of development of this product was to

produce major scientific reviews on the following

three topics: dependence of radiative forcing by

tropospheric aerosols on aerosol composition in the

north Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions;

measurement-based understanding of aerosol radiative

forcing from remote-sensing observations; and model intercomparison to quantify

uncertainties associated with indirect aerosol forcing. The second-phase product will

draw upon the scientific information gathered by the development of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report and the

National Research Council review, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Authors will

draw from these community-wide assessments of climate change (and the aerosolclimate topic inclusively) in writing this synthesis and assessment product.

This activity will address Questions 3.1 and 3.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

VOCALS Cloud/Aerosols Field Study. Extensive and persistent layers of stratus clouds

occur off the subtropical west coasts of Africa and of North and South America. These

cloud decks have a significant impact on Earth’s radiation budget. Aerosols, arising

from natural processes and from human activity, have important influences on the

brightness and persistence of these clouds. The Variability of the American Monsoon

System (VAMOS) Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) is planning a

field campaign that will study the stratus deck off the Pacific coast of Chile and Peru,

using in situ and remote aircraft observations, along with satellite and ship-based

measurements. Natural and human sources of particles will be observed, as well as the

40

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
roles these particles play in the determining the brightness and lifetimes of stratus

clouds. The VOCALS field campaign is planned for October 2008; preliminary work

to simulate the southeast Pacific stratus deck will begin earlier that year.

This activity will address Questions 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

The Ice in Clouds Experiment.The Ice

in Clouds Experiment (ICE) will take

place in November 2007. The goal of

this study is to improve understanding

of ice nucleation in the atmosphere. This

knowledge will improve the modeling of

ice cloud formation, precipitation, and

climate effects. The specific objective

of ICE is to show that under given

conditions, direct measurements of

the thermodynamic and kinetic

environments of clouds (temperature,

humidity, wind) and specific measurable

characteristics of the aerosol, including chemical composition, can be used to predict

the number of tiny ice particles that are initially seeded by existing atmospheric

particles. ICE will use airborne measurements of clouds along with coordinating

ground measurements in mountainous locations such as the Front Range of Colorado

and Wyoming. Close collaboration between theory, field, lab, and modeling studies

will be emphasized.

This activity will address Questions 3.1 and 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

41

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Completion of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.4. In FY 2008,

CCSP researchers will finalize CCSP Synthesis and Assessment

Product 2.4, Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone

Layer Recovery, and Implications for Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure.

This report will focus on updating trends in stratospheric ozone,

ozone-depleting gases, and ultraviolet exposure, and on improving

model evaluations of the sensitivity of the ozone layer to changes in

tropospheric composition and climate, along with the implications for

the United States. This information is key to ensuring that international agreements to

phase out production of ozone-depleting substances are having the expected outcome:

recovery of the protective ozone layer.

This activity will address Question 3.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

42

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
43

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) Velders, G.J.M., S.O. Andersen, J.S. Daniel, D.W. Fahey, and M. McFarland, 2007: The importance

of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104,

4814-4819, doi:10.1073/pnas.0610328104.

2) Fu, R., Y. Hu, J.S. Wright, J.H. Jiang, R.E. Dickinson, M. Chen, M. Filipiak, W.G. Read, J.W.

Waters, and D.L. Wu, 2006: Short circuit of water vapor and polluted air to the global stratosphere

by convective transport over the Tibetan Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103,

5664-5669.

3) Newman, P.A., E.R. Nash, S.R. Kawa, S.A. Montzka, and S.M. Schauffler, 2006: When will the

Antarctic ozone hole recover? Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029.2005GL025232.

4) WMO, 2007: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring

Project–Report No. 50. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 572 pp.

5) Volkamer, R., J.L. Jimenez, F. San Martini, K. Dzepina, Q. Zhang, D. Salcedo, L.T. Molina, D.R.

Worsnop, and M.J. Molina, 2006: Secondary organic aerosol formation from anthropogenic air

pollution: Rapid and higher than expected. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17811,

doi:10.1029/2006GL026899.

6) Quinn, P.K., T.S. Bates, D. Coffman, T.B. Onasch, D. Worsnop, P.D. Goldan, W.C. Kuster, T.

Baynard, J.A. de Gouw, J.M. Roberts, B. Lerner, and A. Stohl, 2006: Impact of sources and aging

on submicrometer aerosol properties in the marine boundary layer across the Gulf of Maine.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D23S36, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007582.

7) Gao, R.S., J.P. Schwartz, K.K. Kelly, D.W. Fahey, L.A. Watts, T.L. Thompson, J.R. Spackman, J.G.

Slowik, E.S. Cross, J.-H. Han, P. Davidovits, T.B. Onasch, and D.R. Worsnop, 2007: A novel

method for estimating light-scattering properties of soot aerosols using a modified single-particle

soot photometer. Aerosol Science and Technology, 41, 125-135.

8) See <esrl.noaa.gov/csd/2006>.

9) Slingo, A., T.P. Ackerman, R.P. Allan, E.I. Kassianov, S.A. McFarlane, G.J. Robinson, J.C.

Barnard, M.A. Miller, J.E. Harries, J.E. Russell, and S. Dewitte, 2006: Observations of the impact

of a major Saharan dust storm on the Earth’s radiation budget. Geophysical Research Letters, 33,

L24817, doi:10.1029/2006GL027869.

10) Jiang, H. and G. Feingold, 2006: Effect of aerosol on warm convective clouds: Aerosol-cloudsurface flux feedbacks in a new coupled large eddy model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111,

doi:10.1029/2005JD006138.

11) Jiang, H., A. Xue, G. Teller, G. Feingold, and Z. Levin, 2006: Aerosol effects on lifetime of

shallow cumulus. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026024.

12) Wilcox, E.M., G. Roberts, and V. Ramanathan, 2006: Influence of aerosols on the shortwave

cloud radiative forcing from North Pacific oceanic clouds: Results from the Cloud Indirect Forcing

Experiment (CIFEX). Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L21804, doi:10.1029/2006GL027150. 

13) Meskhidze, N. and A. Nenes, 2006: Phytoplankton and cloudiness in the Southern Ocean.

Science, 314, 5804, doi:10.1126/science.1131779.

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CHAPTER REFERENCES
44

2 Climate Variability 

and Change

Recognizing that the climate system operates seamlessly across time scales, CCSPsupported research encompasses both short-term climate variability and longer term

climate change. The connection between higher frequency fluctuations and climate

change is the focus of several recent studies on potential relationships between hurricane

activity and long-term increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (see discussion in

Analysis of Progress Toward Goals section). Interactions among climate system

components—for example, involving the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and

cryosphere—are also of fundamental importance to understanding past and projecting

future climate changes. Such interactions are vital in explaining past abrupt climate

changes, which paleoclimatic evidence suggests have occurred in periods as short as

years to decades.1 An important goal of CCSP research is to assess the likelihood of

future abrupt climate changes and to identify the requirements for an early warning

system to detect and predict such changes. 

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Strategic Research Questions

4.1 To what extent can uncertainties in model projections

due to climate system feedbacks be reduced?

4.2 How can predictions of climate variability and

projections of climate change be improved, and what

are the limits of their predictability?

4.3 What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate

system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline

circulation, inception of a decades-long mega-drought,

or rapid melting of the major ice sheets?

4.4 How are extreme events, such as droughts, floods,

wildfires, heat waves, and hurricanes, related to climate

variability and change?

4.5 How can information on climate variability and change

be most efficiently developed, integrated with nonclimatic knowledge, and communicated in order to

best serve societal needs?

See Chapter 4 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
45

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Identifying links and feedbacks among climate system components poses challenges

in designing observing systems to monitor the climate system adequately and in

constructing models that can properly reproduce past, and confidently project future,

climate system behavior. Toward this end, a new generation of climate models that

incorporates improved representations of physical processes, increased resolution, and

coupling of the different climate system components is being developed within an

Earth system modeling framework. Such Earth system models, in combination with

global Earth observations, are essential to produce internally consistent maps of

atmospheric, oceanic, land surface, and ice conditions, called “Earth system analyses,”

both in near real-time and retrospectively. The development of such analyses will

provide decisionmakers with new tools to visualize the evolving state of the full

climate system over the entire planet and provide researchers with the ability to

better explain observed changes.

Research within the Climate Variability and Change (CVC) element focuses on two

broad, critically important questions to society as defined in the CCSP Strategic Plan:

• How are climate variables that are important to human and natural systems affected

by changes in the Earth system resulting from natural processes and human activities?

• How can emerging scientific findings on climate variability and change be further

developed and communicated in order to better serve societal needs?

More specifically, CVC research addresses the five strategic research questions listed

at the beginning of this chapter to achieve the milestones, products, and payoffs

described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. Cooperative efforts involving CCSP agencies have

led to significant progress in addressing all five of the strategic questions articulated in

the CVC chapter of the CCSP Strategic Plan. The following section highlights some of

the major scientific advances achieved during this past fiscal year.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

CVC research encompasses activities spanning the reconstruction of the climate before

the era of modern observing systems (paleoclimate) through model-based projections

of future climate change. This section begins with highlights from paleoclimate

research published within the past year. Paleoclimate research has proven invaluable in

identifying the rates and magnitudes of past climate changes, determining mechanisms

that can produce such changes, and helping to constrain estimates of climate system

sensitivity in response to changes in radiative forcing. Paleoclimate studies also enable

evaluations of climate model performance over far longer time periods and ranges of

forcing than would be possible from only modern observational records.
The Pliocene Paradox.2 During the early Pliocene 3 to 5 million years ago, the intensity

of sunlight incident on Earth, the global geography, and the atmospheric concentration

of carbon dioxide were similar to today’s values, but surface temperatures in polar

regions were much higher than today. Continental glaciers were absent from the

Northern Hemisphere, and sea level was 25 m higher than at present. This paradox—

that the early Pliocene climate was much warmer than today despite similar external

forcing—has potential implications for climate stability. It raises the possibility that

future melting of glaciers, changes in the hydrological cycle, and a deepening of the

upper mixed layer of the ocean could lead to a return toward much warmer conditions

similar to the early Pliocene.

Paleoclimate Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability.3 Conditions during the last

interglacial period (129,000-118,000 years ago) as deduced from coral records

provide evidence that sea level during this epoch was from 4 to over 6 m above

present levels. If current trends in polar warming continue over the next century,

climate conditions similar to those of the last interglacial period may result in Arctic

and Antarctic ice melt, with sea level rising well beyond current estimates.

High-Resolution Paleoclimate Records.4 Research on marine fossils suggests that waters

in the central Gulf of California were especially warm during the Medieval Warm

Period from approximately AD 900 to1160. A present-day relationship exists between

warmer sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf and more intense development

of the North American monsoon in Arizona and New Mexico. Increased monsoonal

rainfall during the Medieval Warm Period has also been found in Florida and the

Indian Ocean. Increased solar radiance is considered as a possible forcing mechanism.

Reconstructions of Streamflow in the Upper

Colorado and South Platte River Basins.5

Measurements from moisture-sensitive trees in

Colorado have been used to extend streamflow

records in the Upper Colorado and South Platte

River basins back 300 to 600 years, significantly

augmenting river gage records. The results

indicate that the 20th-century climate is not

representative of the range of hydrological

extremes due to natural climate variability. For

example, multi-year drought events more severe

than the 1950s drought occurred as recently as

the 19th century. Water managers are now using

the paleo-streamflow reconstructions to better

46

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
estimate the potential range of natural hydroclimatic variability in the Upper Colorado

and South Platte River basins. 

Estimated Climate Sensitivity Constrained by Temperature Reconstructions over the Past

Seven Centuries.6 Climate sensitivity, defined as the equilibrium response of global

mean surface temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide, is an important indicator

of the potential for future global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report gives a 5 to 95% range of climate sensitivity

of 2 to 4.5°C, with a most probable value of 3.0°C. Some studies suggest, however,

the possibility of much higher sensitivities, at or above 8°C. A recent study examines

the plausibility of such high sensitivities by using an energy balance model forced by

solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases. This model is used to simulate paleoclimate

reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 7 centuries. The

method involves determining the climate sensitivities that yield simulations in best

agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainties in

temperature reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, the analysis

suggests that the most likely range of climate sensitivity is 1.5 to 6.2°C, and that

higher climate sensitivities are inconsistent with paleoclimate evidence.

Studies within the era of modern climate observations are helping to illuminate

interactions among climate system components, as well as the connections between

longer term climate changes and short-term weather and climate phenomena, including

extreme events like hurricanes.

Climate Variability and Change and Hurricanes.7,8,9,10,11,12,13There is observational

evidence of an increase in intense hurricane activity over the North Atlantic Ocean

since around 1970 that is correlated with increasing tropical Atlantic sea surface

temperatures. Climate model simulations indicate that sea surface temperature

changes in the Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone development regions during the

20th century have significant contributions from anthropogenic forcing as well as

natural variability. Evidence for changes in tropical cyclone activity outside the

Atlantic is mixed, however, with results varying with the ocean basin, period of

record, data set, and analysis technique. Because of these and other issues, the reliability

47

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
of existing data sets for tropical cyclone trend detection has been questioned. There is

general agreement on the need for further work to improve the quality of historical

tropical cyclone data sets. 

Advances in Detecting Ice Sheet Changes.14,15,16 Studies applying sensitive gravimetric

measurements show net decreases over recent years in the mass of the Greenland and

Antarctic Ice Sheets. These reductions appear to be due to increased melting around

the ice margins and widespread acceleration in the seaward flow of outlet glaciers.

Because of the implications for the rate of sea-level rise, key challenges for future

research are to refine further the accuracy of direct observations of ice sheet changes

and to improve understanding and modeling of the processes contributing to these

changes.

Interannual and Decadal Variability in Ocean Heat Content.17,18,19The global ocean has

approximately one thousand times the heat capacity of the atmosphere, so monitoring

ocean heat content is of fundamental importance to detect and understand changes in

the Earth’s heat balance. While observations show a general increase in the global

ocean heat content over the past half-century, amounting to over 80% of the total heat

gain of the climate system, there is large uncertainty due to deficiencies in the historical

record of ocean temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. Moreover, the decadal

signals are complicated by substantial multi-year fluctuations caused by volcanic activity

and/or short-term climate variations such as El Niño. For the recent decade 1993 to

2003, when spatial coverage of measurements improved, enhanced ocean warming

accounts for about one-half of global

sea-level rise, due to thermal

expansion of seawater. Global

coverage from 60°S to 60°N of

upper ocean temperature was

achieved in 2004 by the Argo float

project, and Argo data indicate

that ocean heat content was

approximately constant for the period 2004 to 2006. A significant challenge for

understanding the climate system is to correctly represent the interannual to decadal

variability of ocean heat content in ocean models.

Vegetation-Climate Feedback.20,21 Understanding the present-day relationships between

climate and the ranges of plant species is key to both interpret past changes in plant

distributions and to assess the effects of potential future climatic changes on ecosystems.

CCSP researchers are conducting analyses that provide direct comparisons of the

geographic distributions of temperature, moisture, and bioclimatic parameters with

48

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
the ranges of ecoregions and key plant species in North America. Two new volumes of

the Atlas of Relations between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees

and Shrubs in North America explore the influence of climate on woody species and

ecoregions in Alaska and on ecoregions of North America as defined by three different

approaches. The data presented in these volumes are being employed to interpret the

climatic changes associated with geologic records of ecosystem changes over the past

20,000 years in North America. These data also provide the basis for modeling

potential changes in ecosystems that would occur under a range of future climate

change scenarios. 

North American Monsoon Data Analysis and Modeling.22,23,24 Data collected during the

North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME 2004) were used in global and regional

data analysis and forecast experiments at the NOAA National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to test their impact on operational climate products.

The NAME 2004-enhanced soundings appear to have a significant beneficial influence

on NCEP’s operational analyses, particularly over the core monsoon area and in

regions where uncertainties are largest. Analyses from the NAME Model Assessment

Project show that current models are capable of simulating the general evolution of a

summer precipitation maximum near the core monsoon region. Important differences

in the monthly evolution and diurnal cycle of precipitation generated by the models

were also found, including significant delays of up to a full month in monsoon onset

compared to observations. A special issue of Journal of Climate published in 2007

includes 22 papers on scientific progress resulting from NAME 2004.

Ozone Increases in the Antarctic Middle Stratosphere.25,26 An increase in summer

ozone concentrations in the Antarctic middle stratosphere has been seen in satellite

measurements over the last 2 decades, and its general characteristics have been

replicated in a computer model that includes interactive coupling of chemical and

meteorological processes. The model yields a summer increase because of changes in

polar stratospheric winds that are forced by radiative perturbations associated with the

much larger ozone decreases in the lower Antarctic stratosphere. The model findings

provide an important evaluation of coupled chemistry-climate models and increase

confidence in our ability to make future projections. Other modeling research has

shown that warming of the tropical troposphere due to increased greenhouse gases

may accelerate the circulation of the stratosphere and thus alter the global distribution

of ozone.

Pollution Darkened China’s Skies.27 Records from more than 500 weather stations

across China for the years 1954 to 2001 indicate China has darkened over the past

half-century. On the other hand, in the most comprehensive study to date of overcast

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
versus cloud-free days in China, researchers have found that cloud cover has been

decreasing for the past 50 years. Less cloud cover, regardless of its cause, should have

resulted in more solar radiation reaching the surface. Surprisingly, though, the data

show that both solar radiation and pan evaporation decreased in most parts of China

by 1.9% (3.1 Wm-2) and 2.2% (39 mm) per decade, respectively. Combined with

evidence from other studies of decreased sunshine duration, reduced visibility or

clearness, and elevated aerosol optical depth, it appears that air pollution produced a

fog-like haze, which reflected and absorbed radiation from the sun and resulted in less

solar radiation reaching the surface, despite concurrent upward trends in cloud-free

skies over China.

CVC research also encompasses the development and application of climate models of

varying complexity. These models are used to understand past climate variations, help

explain causes of current climate conditions, and improve short-term climate predictions

as well as projections of future climate change.

Mountain Snowpack Projected to Decline.28 A global climate model with an embedded

downscaling scheme predicts that regional mountain snowpack will decline by up to

50 to 80% in many regions of the globe over the next century in response to a scenario

of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Previous studies with

regional climate models have suggested similar reductions for selected regions and

decades in the 21st century. Now, for the first time, a global climate model provides

global estimates of snowmelt with 5-km spatial resolution for the period 1980 to

2100. To achieve this resolution, a physically based downscaling scheme was added to

the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) that is fully interactive with the

atmosphere and land components of the CCSM. Snowpack is most sensitive to spatial

resolution because of its dependence on both temperature and precipitation, both of

which also depend on surface elevation. 

Reducing Uncertainties in Projections of the Thermohaline Circulation.29The ocean

thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in Earth’s climate by

transporting heat from low latitudes. Changes in the THC and, in particular, a shutdown

of this circulation due to large freshwater input at high latitudes, have been identified

as a likely candidate for explaining some past rapid climate changes. A recent study

applied a suite of climate models to examine how the THC may respond to additions

50

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
of freshwater in the North Atlantic Ocean that could accompany future climate

change. In response to expected levels of freshwater input, the models yield generally

similar amounts of THC weakening over the next 100 years, on the order of 30% on

average, and none of the models simulated a complete shutdown during this period.

Identifying Robust Responses to Anthropogenic Climate Forcing.30,31 Analyses of climate

model simulations generated for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have identified

several highly reproducible hydrological and atmospheric circulation responses to past

and projected future climate forcing. Examples of these robust responses include

strong subtropical drying; weakening of large-scale tropical circulations, including an

east-west wind pattern over the tropical Pacific known as the Walker circulation; and

a poleward expansion of a north-south tropical wind pattern known as the Hadley

circulation. A study of the hydrological cycle response shows that, contrary to

conventional wisdom, nearly all of the models generate positive cloud feedback,

indicating that in these models changes in clouds are amplifying the amount of global

warming. 

IPCC Model Analyses and Evaluation.32,33,34,35,36,37,38 Substantial efforts were devoted

to develop and analyze the model runs for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Numerous publications describing the National Center for Atmospheric Research

CCSM, the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2, and the NASA

Goddard Institute for Space Studies EH models are now available. All models are

consistent in projecting global warming in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic

forcing. The models also include improved El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

characteristics but still have trouble depicting many aspects of ENSO variability and its

effects on climate in North America and elsewhere. Generally, only a few models are

able to successfully replicate monsoon precipitation patterns. These deficiencies represent

fundamental challenges that will need to be addressed in future climate models.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

Development of a Permafrost Monitoring Network. Climate projections by coupled

atmosphere-ocean global circulation models suggest significant environmental changes

will occur in the Arctic during the next 80 years. Given the large potential impacts,

and the significant uncertainty in the model projections, the U.S. Department of the

Interior is developing a long-term permafrost monitoring network on Federal lands in

northern Alaska; this network contributes to the Global Terrestrial Network for

Permafrost and the Global Climate Observing System. Analysis of data acquired thus

far by the monitoring network suggests that permafrost temperatures on the western

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
half of the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska may have warmed several degrees Celsius

between 1980 and 2005. 

This activity will address Goals 1 and 4 and

Questions 4.3 and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Yukon River Basin: An Arctic Benchmark. A developing consortium of U.S. and

Canadian Federal, state, and provincial agencies, university scientists, and tribal

organizations is initiating a major campaign to understand and predict climate-induced

changes to the air, water, land, and biota within the Yukon River Basin (YRB). The

consortium will implement a prototype environmental monitoring and research

strategy that links air, water, soil, and forest information to understand changes in

carbon and energy budgets across the Arctic, boreal, and Arctic Ocean systems. This

collaborative scientific campaign, using the YRB and adjacent coastal ocean as a

representative landscape unit, will provide a benchmark for tracking and understanding

changes occurring throughout the Arctic and subarctic region.

This activity will address Goals 1, 2, and 4 and

Questions 4.3, 4.4, 6.4, and 7.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Field Experiment to Improve Understanding of Southeast Pacific Climate Processes.The

Variability of the American Monsoon System (VAMOS) Ocean-Cloud-AtmosphereLand Study - Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) is planned for October and

November 2008. This international field experiment is designed to better understand

physical and chemical processes central to the climate system of the Southeast Pacific

(SEP) region. The climate system of the SEP involves tightly coupled, but poorly

understood, interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land. VOCALS-REx will

focus on interactions among clouds, aerosols, marine boundary layer processes, upper

ocean dynamics and thermodynamics, coastal currents and upwelling, large-scale

subsidence, and regional diurnal circulations to the west of the Andes mountain range

(see Figure 3). Multidisciplinary intensive observational data sets will be obtained

during VOCALS-REx from several platforms including aircraft, research vessels, and a

surface land site. An intensive observational period will take place during October and

November, when the extent of stratocumulus over the SEP is at its greatest, the

southeast trade winds are at their strongest, and the coupling between the upper

ocean and the lower atmosphere is at its tightest.

This activity will address Goals 1 and 2 and

Questions 3.1 and 4.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Constructing a Satellite-Era Reanalysis of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System. A

national capacity for integrated Earth system analysis is being developed that extends

beyond current attempts to map individual components of the Earth system separately.

Achieving this capability requires parallel advancements in coupled Earth system

52

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
modeling, and considerable progress is being made in this latter arena, particularly with

the adoption by the research and operational forecasting communities of a common

Earth system modeling framework. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is currently in

operational use, and during 2008 this model will serve as the basis for beginning the

first attempt to create a reanalysis of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system dating

back to the start of the satellite era (1979) through 2007. Development of a coupled

ocean-atmosphere analysis capability will also support intensified efforts to improve

the monitoring and understanding of changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation.

This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and

Questions 4.2, 4.4, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 3: The Southeast Pacific Climate System. Schematic view of the coupled ocean-atmosphereland system in the vicinity of the southeast Pacific. The interactions among clouds, aerosols, coastal

upwelling and currents, upper ocean dynamics, and regional circulations influenced by the Andes are

poorly understood and not well modeled, and yet these interactions over the southeast Pacific affect

regional and global climate. Surface winds, faced with the Andes barrier, flow parallel to the coast and

bring deep, nutrient-rich waters to the surface. These cold waters, aided by an air mass made stable in

part by effects of the Andes, help support the largest and most persistent subtropical sheet of stratus

and stratocumulus clouds on the planet. This cloud deck, affected by aerosols from both natural and

human sources, helps in turn to maintain cool ocean waters beneath. A field campaign, VOCALS, is

planned in 2008 to obtain measurements to better understand this complex system and to provide a

basis for model improvements. Credit: R. Wood, University of Washington.

ITCZ

Equa o

C

Sm

ITCZ

C

Sm

Co d Wa e

T anspo

SO Ae o o

T a po

40°S

10 °W

C o a s t a l U p w e l l i n g

Su ace W nds

The Sou heas Pac c C ma e Sys em

Stratus Deck Wa m SST

Co d SST

Low Level Jet D u nal Heating

SOUTH AMERICA

ANDES CORDIL ERA
Creating a Historical Reanalysis of the Atmosphere

of the 20th Century. Recent research has shown

the feasibility of using modern data assimilation

techniques together with observations of

sea-level pressure to produce, for the first

time, a global analysis of tropospheric

weather patterns at 6-hour temporal

resolution that extends over the entire

20th century. Production of this historical

reanalysis will be initiated in 2008, with the

goal of at least doubling the length of current

reanalysis records, which now extend back only

until 1948. This historical reanalysis will enable

researchers to address such questions as the range of natural

variability of high-impact events like floods, droughts, hurricanes, and extratropical

cyclones, and how ENSO and other climate modes alter these events. A century-long

reanalysis will also help to clarify the origins of climate variations that produced major

societal impacts and profoundly influenced policies, including the 1930s “Dust Bowl”

drought and the prolonged cool, very wet period in the western United States early in

the 20th century that led to over-allocation of Colorado River water through the 1922

Colorado Compact.

This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and

Questions 4.2, 4.4, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Drought in Coupled Models Project. A new, multi-agency activity will support research

into the physical and dynamical mechanisms of drought and the mechanisms through

which drought may change as climate changes. Relevant issues include the role of the

54

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
seasonal cycle in drought, the

impacts of drought on water

supplies, and the distinction

between drought as a transient

phenomena and drying produced

by long-term changes in a region’s

water balance. A broad range of

model simulations will be analyzed

and evaluated in this effort,

including multi-model simulations

of 20th-century climate, model

projections of future climate, paleoclimate simulations of the last glacial maximum,

and seasonal model prediction data sets. The objective is to increase community-wide

diagnostic research into the physical mechanisms of drought and to evaluate drought

simulations by current models. This effort will lead to more robust evaluations of

model projections of drought risk and severity, and to a better quantification of the

uncertainty in such projections.

This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and

Questions 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, and 5.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

55

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
56

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

1) NRC, 2002: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. National Academy Press, Washington, DC,

USA, 230 pp.

2) Fedorov, A.V., P.S. Dekens, M. McCarthy, A.C. Ravelo, P.B. deMenocal, M. Barreiro, R.C.

Pacanowski, and S.G. Philander, 2006: The Pliocene paradox (Mechanisms for a permanent

El Niño). Science, 312(5779), 1485-1489, doi:10.1126/science.1122666.

3) Overpeck, J.T., B.L. Otto-Bliesner, G.H. Miller, D.R. Muhs, R.B. Alley, and J.T. Kiehl, 2006:

Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science, 311,

1747-1750, doi:10.1126/science.1115159.

4) Barron, J.A. and D. Bukry, 2007: Solar forcing of Gulf of California climate during the past 2000

years suggested by diatoms and silicoflagellates. Marine Micropaleontology, 62, 115-139.

5) Woodhouse, C. and J.J. Lukas, 2006: Multi-century tree-ring reconstructions of Colorado stream

flow for water resource planning. Climatic Change, 78, 293-315, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9055-0.

6) Hegerl, G.C., T.J. Crowley, W.T. Hyde, and D.J. Frame, 2006: Climate sensitivity constrained by

temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature, 440(7087), 1029-1032,

doi:10.1038/nature04679.

7) Webster, P.J., G. Holland, J. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical storm number,

duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309(5742),

doi:10.1126/science.1116448.

8) Emanuel, K., 2006: Climate and tropical cyclone activity: a new model downscaling approach.

Journal of Climate, 19, 4797-4802.

9) Hoyos, C.D., P. Agudelo, P. Webster, and J. Curry, 2006: Deconvolution of the factors leading to

the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science, 312(94), doi:10.1126/science.1123560.

10) Kossin, J.P., K.R. Knapp, D.J. Vimont, R.J. Murnane, and B.A. Harper, 2007: A globally

consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(4), L04815,

doi:10.1029/2006GL028836.

11) Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. Achuta Rao, T.P. Barnett,

J.S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl,

S.C.B. Raper, R.W. Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington, 2006: Forced and unforced

ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proceedings of the

National Academies of Science, 103(38), 13905-13910, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

12) Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme

tropical cyclones? Science, 313(5786), 452-454, doi:10.1126/science.1128448.

13) Wu, M.C., K.H. Yeung, and W.L. Chang, 2006: Trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone

intensity. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 87(48), 537.

14) Velicogna, I. and J. Wahr, 2006: Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in

Antarctica. Science, 311, 1754-1756, doi:10.1126/science.1123785.

15) Rignot, E. and P. Kanagaratnam, 2006: Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice

Sheet. Science, 311, 986-990, doi:10.1126/science.1121381.

16) Luthcke, S.B., H.J. Zwally, W. Abdalati, D.D. Rowlands, R.D. Ray, R.S. Nerem, F.G. Lemoine,

J.J. McCarthy, and D.S. Chinn, 2006: Recent Greenland ice mass loss by drainage system from

satellite gravity observations. Science, 314, 1286-1289, doi:10.1126/science.1130776.

17) Levitus, S.J., I. Antonov, and T.P. Boyer, 2005: Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003.

Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L02604, doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.

18) Willis, J., D. Roemmich, and B. Cornuelle, 2004: Interannual variability in upper-ocean heat

content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales. Journal of Geophysical Research,

109, C12036, doi:10.1029/2003JC002260.

19) Roemmich, D. and 15 co-authors, 2006: Global warming and sea-level rise. WCRP Workshop on

Understanding Sea Level Rise and Variability, Paris, June 6-9, 2006.

20) Thompson, R.S., K.H. Anderson, L.E. Strickland, S.L. Shafer, R.T. Pelltier, and P.J. Bartlein,

2006: Atlas of Relations between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in

North America – Alaskan Species and Ecoregions. USGS Professional Paper 1650-D, 342 p.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
57

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

21) Thompson, R.S., K.H. Anderson, R.T. Pelltier, S.L. Shafer, and P.J. Bartlein, 2007: Atlas of

Relations between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America –

Ecoregions of North America. USGS Professional Paper 1650-E, CD-ROM.

22) Mo, K.C., R.W. Higgins, E. Rogers, and J. Wollen, 2007: Influence of the North American

Monsoon Experiment 2004 enhanced soundings on NCEP operational analyses. Journal of Climate,

20(9), 1821-1842, doi:10.1175/JCLI4083.1.

23) Gutzler, D.S., H.K. Kim, R.W. Higgins, H.M.H. Juang, M. Kanamitsu, K. Mitchell, K. Mo, P.

Pegion, E. Richie, J. Schemm, S. Schubert, Y. Song, and R.Yang, 2005: The North American

Monsoon Model Assessment Project: Integrating numerical modeling into a field-based process

study. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1423-1436.

24) Mo, K.C., J.E. Schemm, H. Kim, and W.R. Higgins 2006: Influence of initial conditions on summer

precipitation simulations over the United States and Mexico. Journal of Climate, 19, 3640-3658.

25) Stolarski, R.S., A.R. Douglass, M. Gupta, P.A. Newman, S. Pawson, M.R. Schoeberl, and J.E.

Nielsen, 2006: An ozone increase in the Antarctic summer stratosphere: A dynamical response to

the ozone hole. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L21805, doi:10.1029/2006GL026820.

26) Eichelberger, S.J. and D.L. Hartmann, 2005: Changes in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson

Circulation in a simple AGCM. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L15807, doi:10.1029/2005GL022924.

27) Qian, Y., D.P. Kaiser, L.R. Leung, and M. Xu, 2006: More frequent cloud-free sky and less surface

solar radiation in China from 1955 to 2000. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01812,

doi:10.1029/2005GL024586.

28) Ghan, S.J. and T. Shippert, 2006: Physically based global downscaling: Climate change projections

for a full century. Journal of Climate, 19, 1589-1604.

29) Stouffer, R.J., J. Yin, J.M. Gregory, K.W. Dixon, M.J. Spelman, W. Hurlin, A.J. Weaver, M. Eby,

G.M. Flato, H. Hasumi, A. Hu, J.H. Jungclaus, I.V. Kamenkovich, A. Levermann, M. Montoya, S.

Murakami, S. Nawrath, A. Oka, W.R. Peltier, D.Y. Robitaille, A. Sokolov, G. Vettoretti, and S.L.

Weber, 2006: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and

future climate changes. Journal of Climate, 19, 1365-1387.

30) Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006:

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441,

73-76, doi:10.1038/nature04744.

31) Held, I. and B. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming.

Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.

32) Kiehl, J.T., C.A. Shields, J.J. Hack, and W.D. Collins, 2006: The climate sensitivity of the

Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). Journal of Climate, 19, 2584-2596.

33) Schmidt, G.A., R. Ruedy, J.E. Hansen, I. Aleinov, N. Bell, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, B. Cairns, V.

Canuto, Y. Cheng, A. DelGenio, G. Faluvegi, A.D. Friend, T.M. Hall, Y. Hu, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang,

D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, J. Lerner, K.K. Lo, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, V. Oinas, Jan Perlwitz, J.

Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell, M. Sato, D.T. Shindell, P.H. Stone, S. Sun, N.

Tausnev, D. Thresher, and M.S. Yao, 2005: Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS

ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data. Journal of Climate, 19, 153-192.

34) KnutsonT.R., T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, I.M. Held, J. Lu, V. Ramaswamy, M.D. Schwarzkopf,

G. Stenchikov, and R.J. Stouffer, 2006: Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature

trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. Journal of Climate, 19, 1624-1651.

35) Cook, K.H. and E.K. Vizy, 2006: Coupled model simulations of the West African Monsoon

System: Twentieth and twenty-first century simulations. Journal of Climate, 19, 3681-3703.

36) Annamalai, H., K. Hamilton, and K.R. Sperber, 2007: South Asian Summer Monsoon and its

relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations. Journal of Climate, 20(6), 1071-1092.

37) Joseph, R. and S. Nigam, 2006: ENSO evolution and teleconnections in IPCC’s twentieth century

climate simulations: Realistic representation? Journal of Climate, 19, 4360-4377.

38) Achuta Rao, K. and K.R. Sperber, 2006: ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models:

Are the current models better? Climate Dynamics, 27, 1-15.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
3 Global Water

Cycle

The global water (and energy) cycle plays a critical role in the functioning of the

Earth system. Through complex interactions, the global water cycle integrates the

physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain ecosystems and influence

climate and related global change. Inadequate understanding of the water/energy

cycle is one of the key sources of uncertainty in climate prediction and climate change

projections. Clouds, precipitation, and water vapor play important roles in feedbacks

that are not well represented in many climate models. These processes alter surface

and atmospheric heating and cooling rates, leading to adjustments in atmospheric

58

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Strategic Research Questions

5.1 What are the mechanisms and processes responsible

for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle;

are the characteristics of the cycle changing and, if so,

to what extent are human activities responsible for

those changes?

5.2 How do feedback processes control the interactions

between the global water cycle and other parts of the

climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how

are these feedbacks changing over time?

5.3 What are the key uncertainties in seasonal to

interannual predictions and long-term projections of

water cycle variables, and what improvements are

needed in global and regional models to reduce these

uncertainties?

5.4 What are the consequences over a range of space and

time scales of water cycle variability and change for

human societies and ecosystems, and how do they

interact with the Earth system to affect sediment

transport and nutrient and biogeochemical cycles?

5.5 How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision

processes in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies?

See Chapter 5 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
circulation and precipitation patterns. Improved understanding of these processes will

be essential to develop options for responding to the consequences of water cycle

variability and change. For assessing the impacts of global and regional climate change

on human societies, industrial and economic systems, and natural and managed

ecosystems, water is considered a more rigid or critical constraint or limiting factor

than temperature. To address these issues, the CCSP Global Water Cycle (GWC)

element expends considerable effort to improve observations, data assimilation, and

modeling/prediction systems that in turn deliver the information necessary for

decision-support tools and assessments that provide a basis for “best practices” in the

management of water resources. 

The ultimate goal of water cycle research is to provide a solid foundation for decisions

and investments by policymakers, managers, and individuals—be it at the Federal,

state, or local level. Achieving this goal requires a program of activities that significantly

improves understanding of water/energy cycle processes, incorporates this understanding

in an integrated modeling/prediction framework, and tests predictions and data products

in real decisionmaking contexts. In order to demonstrate techniques and their

effectiveness to potential users, the GWC program also aims to expedite the transfer

of science results from the research/experimental realm to operational applications.

Significant progress has been made in the understanding of cloud properties and the

direct and indirect effect of aerosols on cloud and precipitation processes through field

campaigns such as DOE’s Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC),

and the multi-agency North American Monsoon Experiment and African Monsoon

Multidisciplinary Analyses. Comprehensive satellite monitoring of water cycle parameters

such as global precipitation and cloud structure in storm systems and hurricanes (with

TRMM) and soil moisture and water bodies (with GRACE) as well as atmospheric

profiles of temperature and humidity, and land/ocean surface parameters (Terra,

Aqua) have resulted in integrated data sets and improved models of the Earth system.

The incorporation of research results in models has led to better simulations of and

prediction capabilities for hydroclimatic variables. Multi-model and ensemble modeling

techniques developed by the NOAA Climate Prediction Program for the Americas

have led to improved seasonal predictions of both the atmospheric and terrestrial

hydrological cycle. Techniques have also been developed by USDA, DOI/USGS, and

the DOI Bureau of Reclamation, in collaboration with NOAA, NASA, EPA, and DOE,

among others, for the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts to temporal

scales consistent with the input requirements for agricultural management and

conservation planning decision-support tools. Experimental seasonal hydrological

prediction systems have been developed that use multiple climate forecast model

products and empirical tools to “force” land/hydrological prediction models. 

59

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSP-participating agencies follow.

These research results address the strategic research questions on the global water

cycle identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan, as well as the goals of said plan.

Reducing Uncertainty in the Predictions/Projections of Climate Change, and in the

Global and Regional Water/Energy Cycle.1 An evaluation of of two modeling approaches,

the multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) and the traditional Community

Atmospheric Model (CAM), compared the models’ simulations with observations.

The evaluation showed that distributions of cloud fraction, precipitation intensity, and

downwelling solar radiation flux at the surface from the MMF run were more consistent

with observations than those from the CAM run (see Figure 4). This is attributed to

the improved representation of convective (e.g., thunderstorm) clouds in the MMF

compared to the conventional climate model.

Water Cycle over High Latitudes and Polar Regions.2,3 Consistent with evidence of

warmer temperatures, earlier spring green-up of vegetation and longer growing seasons

at high latitudes, the atmospheric water cycle over polar regions shows a trend toward

an earlier transition from winter to summer moisture recycling patterns during spring

over North America and Europe. This conclusion is supported by findings from the

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity anomaly satellite, and

other observations

showing a thinning of the

Greenland ice sheet and

accelerated ice discharge.

Model projections of

future climate with

double and triple

atmospheric carbon

dioxide concentrations

suggest a general

increase in precipitation

in high-latitude river

basins driven by

increased transport of

moisture into the basins,

and higher rates of

evaporation driven by

rising temperature. 

60

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
61

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 4: Total Annual Precipitation Amount for Tropical Western Pacific and Southern Great Plains Regions for 1999. Total annual

precipitation amount (mm) as predicted by MMF (a,c) and CAM (b,d) for the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) and Southern Great Plains (SGP)

regions for 1999. Locations of the two Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites are circled. The observed precipitation amounts

are 358 and 1,031 mm for the TWP and SGP sites, respectively. Credit: M. Ovtchinnikov, T. Ackerman, and R. Marchand, DOE / Pacific

Northwest National Laboratory; and M. Khairoutdinov, Colorado State University (reproduced from the Journal of Climate with

permission from the American Meteorological Society).

Total Annual Precipitation Amount for TWP and SGP Regions for 1999

a) Tropical Western Pacific MMF

40E 150E 170E 180 160E

10S

0N

b) Tropical Western Pacific CAM

40E 150E 170E 180 160E

10S

0N

c) Southern Great Plains MMF

20W 110W 90W 80W 100W

40N

20N

50N

30N

d) Southern Great Plains CAM

20W 110W 90W 80W 100W

40N

20N

50N

30N

Total Precipitation Amount (mm yr-1

200 400 600 800 1000 2000 3000 4000
Trajectory Shifts in the Arctic and Subarctic

Freshwater Cycle.4 Manifold changes in the

freshwater cycle of the high-latitude lands and

oceans have been reported the past few years. A

synthesis by researchers of these changes in

freshwater sources and in the ocean freshwater

storage illustrates the complementary and

concurrent pattern and magnitude of these

changes over the past 50 years. Increasing river discharge anomalies and excess net

precipitation on the ocean contributed about 20,000 km3 of freshwater to the Arctic

and high-latitude North Atlantic oceans from minimal annual rates in the 1960s to

maximal rates in the 1990s. Sea ice attrition provided roughly another 15,000 km3,

and glacial melt added about 2,000 km3. The sum of inputs from these freshwater

sources above the long-term average matched the amount and rate at which fresh

water accumulated in the North Atlantic during much of the period from 1965

through 1995. The changes in freshwater inputs and oceanic storage occurred in

conjunction with the amplifying North Atlantic Oscillation, a large-scale pattern of high

and low pressure, and rising air temperatures. Freshwater may now be accumulating

in the Arctic Ocean and will likely be transported southward if and when the North

Atlantic Oscillation enters a new phase.

Colorado River Basin Water Management.5 Recent studies of past climate and streamflow

conditions have broadened understanding of long-term water availability in the

Colorado River, revealing many periods when streamflow was lower than at any time

in the past 100 years of recorded flows. Past water management decisions have been

based largely on the gage record, and there has been an implicit assumption that there

is a single value of the river’s average annual flow—about 18.5 km3 per year—around

which interannual flow variations occur. Even though the basin experienced wet and

dry periods, river flows and weather conditions were expected to return to a “normal”

state, largely defined by the climate of the early and middle 20th century. However,

recent reconstructions based on tree rings demonstrate that Colorado River flows

occasionally shift into decade-long periods in which average flows are lower, or higher,

than the supposed mean value. These reconstructions reinforce the point that the gage

record covers only a small subset of the range of natural hydroclimatic variability in

the river basin over several centuries. The basin’s future hydrology thus may not be

reasonably characterized by the gage record alone. That information, along with two

important trends—a rapid increase in urban populations in the West and significant

climate warming in the region—will require that water managers prepare for possible

reductions in water supplies that cannot be fully averted through traditional means.

Successful adjustments to these new conditions will require strong and sustained

62

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
cooperation among the many entities involved in Colorado River water management

and science programs.

Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain

Snowpack in Western North America.6,7 A recent study

applied a regression analysis approach to snowpack and

climate station data spanning the period 1960 to 2002

for the western North American region (Oregon,

California, Nevada, and Colorado, among others). The

study used 1 April snowwater equivalent (SWE) to

represent a cumulative, simplified summary of the

previous several months’ weather: snow deposition,

snow melting or ablation, and rain events that may either

partially melt snow or be absorbed in the snowpack,

increasing SWE. For most snow course locations in the

West, the study found that long-term variations in

spring SWE are reasonably well explained by summaries of seasonal climate at nearby

stations. Day-to-day details of snow accumulation, ablation, and melt are generally of

secondary importance, except where correlations between observed and climatederived SWE are low. During the second half of the 20th century, and likely since

1916, winter and spring warming in the West have reduced spring snowpack at most

locations. Increases in precipitation appear to have offset this loss in some places since

mid-century, notably in the southern Sierra Nevada mountains, where large increases

have occurred. Some of the interannual variability and long-term trends can be

explained as a response to variability and change in North Pacific climate, especially as

represented by the North Pacific Index (NPI), which responds to the oceanic variations

of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific

Decadal Oscillation, which are large-scale

patterns of climate variations. However, NPI

can only account for about half of the trends in

the Pacific Northwest since mid-century (and

less elsewhere or from earlier starting points),

in rough agreement with modeling results. The

remaining portion clearly includes the influence

of the warming observed throughout the West,

which is largely unrelated to the Pacific climate

variability and may well represent human

influences on climate. That is, even after

accounting for the role of known patterns of

climate variability, there is a substantial

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
downward trend in overall snowpack in the West that is consistent with observed

warming. Even a conservative estimate (0.3°C per decade) of the likely future

warming rate for the western mountains in winter would, by 2100, move the 0°C

isotherm to where the 3°C isotherm now lies: Most of the western mountains would

be in the transient snow zone, in which snow accumulates and melts repeatedly

during the snow season. In the future, intraseasonal behavior of snowpack will likely

change from a steady accumulation to alternating accumulation and loss due to

warmer conditions. Simple regression-based methods currently used by water

resource planners for forecasting seasonal volumetric streamflow will have to be

revised or replaced by more sophisticated methods that can account for the changing

role of temperature both in determining the quantity of spring snowpack (the subject

of this study) and the rate at which it melts. 

Vegetation, Soil Moisture, and Water Table Interactions.8,9The fraction of rainfall that

recharges groundwater and ends up as streamflow tends to increase as the fraction of

land devoted to agriculture decreases. Conversely, when the extent of cultivation

increases a greater fraction of rainfall goes into evapotranspiration, potentially driving

a long-term drop in groundwater levels. This is true in areas without crop irrigation.

Where irrigation taps surface or groundwater, depletions may be even faster.

Modeling of the coupled groundwater-surface water-soil vegetation system shows that

shallow water tables can be either a sink or source of water relative to surface soil

moisture, depending on the balance of infiltration versus evaporation, while deep

water tables have little impact on surface fluxes. Thus, intense agriculture can amplify

surface water stresses by increasing the propensity of soil moisture to decouple from a

depleting water table, particularly during drought conditions.

The Effect of Irrigation on Land Surface Temperatures.10 As seen from space, the region

identified as the Umatilla Ordnance Depot in northeastern Oregon provides a striking

example of temperature contrast caused by irrigation and vegetation type. Suited to

hot, dry summers and an average annual precipitation of 200 mm, the native plants

that grow on the depot use little water. Poplars—fast-growing commercial trees used

as inexpensive lumber and pulp for paper—use large amounts of water, making them

one of the most heavily irrigated crops in the Columbia River Basin. In nature, poplars

grow in wetlands or along riverbanks, where they have access to water, and the

commercial poplar plantation is located close to the river for the same reason. Figure 5

shows the difference in water use that distinguishes the two ecosystems.

64

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
65

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 5: Irrigation and Land

Surface Temperature in

Oregon. The difference between

poplar plantations and native

vegetation is illustrated in this

pair of satellite images, collected

by the Advanced Spaceborne

Thermal Emission and Reflection

Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s

Terra satellite on 27 August

2006. The top panel depicts

vegetation index, a measure of

the density of plants based on

the amount of photosynthesis

recorded by the sensor. The

availability of water causes the

difference between the densely

vegetated areas (dark green)

and the lightly vegetated areas

(light green). The contrast

between irrigated and nonirrigated land is also evident in

the bottom panel, which shows

land surface temperatures

measured by the same ASTER

instrument. The coolest areas

are dark blue, and the warmest

pink and yellow. Irrigated crop

lands are much cooler than the

surrounding native vegetation. In

this semi-arid region, the

temperature difference is as

much as 30°C (54°F), similar to

the temperature difference

between the Congo Rainforest

and the Sahara Desert in Africa.

Credit: J. Allen, NASA /

Goddard Space Flight Center

(<earthobservatory.nasa.gov>),

using data provided courtesy of

NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/

JAROS and the U.S./Japan

ASTER Science Team.

Irrigation and Land Surface Temperature in Oregon

0.0

Vegetation (NDVI)

0.4 0.8

18

Land Surface Temperature (¡C)

33 48

5 km
Fifty-Year High-Resolution Global Data Set of Meteorological Forcings for Land Surface

and Hydrological Modeling.11 Understanding variability of the terrestrial hydrological

cycle is central to determining the potential for extreme events and its susceptibility to

future change. In the absence of long-term, large-scale observations of the components

of the hydrological cycle, modeling can provide consistent fields of land surface fluxes

and states. To enable such an integrated analysis, researchers have created a global,

50-year, 3-hourly, 1° data set of meteorological forcings that can be used to drive

models of land surface hydrology. The data set was constructed by combining a suite

of global observation-based data sets with the National Centers for Environmental

Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis. Known systematic

errors (biases) in the reanalysis precipitation and near-surface meteorology have been

corrected using observation-based data sets of precipitation, air temperature, and

radiation, among others. Wind induced undercatch of frozen precipitation is removed

using the results of the World Meteorological Organization’s Solid Precipitation

Measurement Intercomparison. Precipitation is reduced in scale to 1° using statistical

relationships developed with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

daily product. Disaggregation in time from daily to 3-hourly is accomplished similarly,

using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3-hourly real-time data set.

Other meteorological variables (downward shortwave and longwave radiation, specific

humidity, surface pressure, and wind speed) are downscaled in space while accounting

for changes in elevation. The data set was evaluated against the bias-corrected forcing

data set of the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2). The final product can be

used to drive models of terrestrial hydrologic and ecological processes for the study of

seasonal and interannual variability and for the evaluation of coupled models and other

land surface prediction schemes.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

The GWC research element continues to pursue important, long-term priorities. For

example, insights into the formation and behavior of clouds and precipitation, including

better characterizations of the phase changes of water in clouds and the phases and

onset of precipitation, are emerging from field campaigns and model studies and will

be promoted in continuing activities. Water vapor and cloud-radiation feedback are

considered a critical part of GWC studies that need to be addressed to reduce the

uncertainties associated with climate change projections. The predictability of regional

precipitation is another topic of vital interest: It will be assessed and better understood

by ongoing diagnostic and modeling studies that identify the connections between

regional- and global-scale phenomena, land surface conditions such as soil moisture

and water table fluctuations, and the interface fluxes of energy and heat between the

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
atmosphere and the land surface-vegetation-hydrology combination. Preliminary

analyses from recent studies show promise of leading to earlier (and more accurate)

predictions, improved ability to assess hazards and risks of extremes such as floods and

droughts, and more efficient water resource management.

In FY 2008, continuing U.S. and global observations, field campaigns and experiments,

improvements to data integration and analysis systems, diagnostic and predictive

model development, and applications to decision support systems will be priorities

under the CCSP Global Water Cycle program. A fundamental objective is to ensure

that observational capability is enhanced and improved, and that the data assimilation

and modeling/prediction systems are more reliable and accurate at the point of

application. Several promising results from the past years of research will be further

explored with an aim to transfer this research knowledge to operational applications

that provide societal benefit. Concurrently, a cohesive research strategy will be

implemented to improve current deficiencies in understanding of all aspects of the

regional and global water cycle. Several science questions remain to be answered,

related to warnings of natural hazards and to the impact of global climate change, be it

from natural or anthropogenic causes.

The program outlined for FY 2008 will lead to improvements in fundamental research,

as well as in the planning and decisionmaking for, and management of, natural and

human-made resources—a major aim of the program in addition to its fundamental

research goals. A strong effort will continue to focus on major unresolved research

issues that will require longer term commitments. To address both research and multisectoral applications needs, several initiatives will be launched in FY 2008.

Integration of Space-Based Observations and Land Surface/Hydrology Data Assimilation

Systems.The GRACE satellite has demonstrated that large-scale changes in the integrated

column water content of the combined atmosphere, land surface (including rivers and

reservoirs), soil moisture, and groundwater system compares remarkably well with

the changes documented by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). In

FY 2008 and beyond, further research investigations will explore whether GRACE,

A-Train, and other satellite and ground-based data can be assimilated by the Land

Information System (LIS), and/or provide integral closure constraints (and updated

process parameterizations) to improve the output products from LIS that can potentially

be linked to various decision-support tools and systems involved in the management

of water resources, among others. Such an activity could represent initial components

of end-to-end capabilities bridging observations, research, modeling, and applications.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1 and 3 and

Questions 5.1, 5.3, 5.4, and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
Integration of Observations, Research, and Modeling.12,13The research data from CLASIC

will be analyzed in FY 2008 and beyond to address significant uncertainties in climate

models particularly related to their representation of clouds and aerosols. The primary

goal of CLASIC is to improve understanding of the physics of the early stages of

cumulus cloud convection as it relates to land surface influences, and to translate this

new understanding into improved representations of coupled surface-atmosphere

processes in global and regional climate models. The data from a comprehensive array

of measurements from a variety of instrument platforms will be used to characterize

the synoptic-scale forcing at the DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)

Climate Research Facility’s (ACRF) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site and to undertake

modeling studies to establish the most important relationships between land surface

conditions and cumulus cloud characteristics. CLASIC was designated as the core of

the Global Water Cycle Interagency Working Group CCSP FY 2007 focus area. The

field campaign serves as a prototype for the CCSP focus area. The campaign featured

concurrent contributions by NASA, NOAA, and USDA to extend CLASIC’s temporal

and spatial domain to capture the seasonal time scale and regional processes. The

resulting observational framework included ground- and space-based observations,

measurements from six airplanes and one helicopter, surface and subsurface hydrologic

components, isotopic measurements, CO2 fluxes, and associated modeling. Planning

and operations for CLASIC and DOE’s Atmospheric Science Program’s Cumulus

Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) were coordinated. Scientists from CLASIC

and the North American Carbon Program (NACP) Mid-Continent Intensive (MCI)

Campaign also coordinated measurement and modeling activities. These campaigns

represent the cross-cutting activities of three CCSP science elements—the Global

Water Cycle, Atmospheric Composition, and Global Carbon Cycle, respectively.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, and 3 and

Questions 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Application of the ARM Mobile Facility to Study the Aerosol Indirect

Effects in China. China has exceptionally high aerosol loading with

diverse properties whose influence has been detected across the

Pacific Rim. The rapid pace of changes in the atmospheric

environment over China provides a natural test bed for identifying

and quantifying the climatic effects of aerosols. Preliminary analyses

of multiple satellite data sets [the Moderate Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the TRMM Tropical Microwave

Imager] indicate more complex and unique aerosol indirect effects

than are found in relatively cleaner environments. Unfortunately,

China is one of the least observed regions, especially in terms of

aerosol and cloud properties. To this end, DOE’s ARM Mobile

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Facility (AMF) will be deployed from 1 January to 31 December 2008 to investigate

(1) the mechanisms of the aerosol indirect effects in the region and the roles of aerosols

in affecting regional climate and atmospheric circulation with a special focus on the

impact of the East Asian monsoon system, and (2) effects of long-range transport of

aerosols to the Pacific Rim and the western United States.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1 and 2 and

Questions 5.1 and 5.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Advanced Ensemble Multi-Model Hydrological Prediction. Efforts will

continue to focus on the calibration and validation of research-mode

ensemble (multi-model) forecasting techniques for surface and

subsurface hydrological parameters, especially on longer seasonal time

scales. The objective is to transfer improved hydrological prediction

techniques for operational application on the seasonal to interannual

time scale. This activity will expand on the recently developed

Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service (AHPS) of NOAA’s

hydrological forecasting system that includes new model calibration

strategies, distributed modeling approaches, ensemble forecasting,

data assimilation techniques, enhanced data analysis procedures, flood

forecast inundation maps, hydrological routing models and multisensor precipitation estimates. Data will also be ingested from USGS

streamflow observations, gridded multi-sensor precipitation and SWE

estimates, and others. New approaches for the remote sensing of

precipitation, snow, and other inputs will be integrated into the

hydrological forecast operation. AHPS is slated to be fully implemented

nationwide in 2013. In parallel, CCSP researchers plan to participate

in the further development of the international Hydrological Ensemble

Prediction Experiment (HAPEX), which will bring the international hydrological

community together with the meteorological community and demonstrate how to

produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence by

emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have

important consequences for the economy, and for public health and safety.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 3 and 5 and

Questions 5.3 and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Role of Land Surface Processes in North American Hydroclimate.The feedbacks between

soil moisture, vegetation, and precipitation will be investigated in observations and

models with the goal of helping to understand whether land surface conditions may be

a useful predictor in operational climate prediction at seasonal and sub-seasonal time

scales. The behavior of snow variations and vegetation cover will be studied in order

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
to improve land surface representations in regional climate models. The hydrologic

and climatic effects of crop irrigation are not well quantified and not accurately

represented in model initialization. Improvements in our understanding of the role of

irrigated croplands in North American hydroclimatic regimes and their representation

in models will be pursued.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 3 and 4 and

Questions 5.3 and 5.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Continued Development of Tools for the Assimilation of Remote-Sensing Data into Water

Quality and Sediment Transport and Erosion Models. Agricultural research activities in

the area of land data assimilation systems and model analysis are focused on the

efficient integration of ground-based and remote-sensing data into critical resource

and conservation practice assessment models. Existing agency research projects are

aimed at the sequential assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals and vegetation

indices from microwave and visible remote sensors to constrain crop growth and rootzone water balance models. In FY 2008 and beyond, this work will expand with an

emphasis that includes the assimilation of remote-sensing data into distributed water

quality and sediment transport and erosion models. Particular attention will be paid

to development of data assimilation and modeling capabilities to quantify benefits

arising from the adoption of conservation practices within agricultural watersheds.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 3 and 5 and

Questions 5.3 and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Establishing New Portals Dedicated to Specific Applications of Remote-Sensing Data with

On-Line Analysis Capabilities.14 “Giovanni,” the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and

Information Services Center (GES-DISC) Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis

Infrastructure, was developed to provide researchers with advanced capabilities to

perform data exploration and analysis with observational data from the Earth

Observing System (EOS) research satellite system. Over the past decade, the central

problem with data use has been the multi-step process required to search for the

appropriate data files, request the files from a central archive, transfer the files to the

scientist’s own computing system, extract the relevant data from unfamiliar data

formats, and then (finally) analyze the data to investigate the vital research question.

70

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Giovanni eliminates all of the above tedious steps that precede data analysis. The result

is a data exploration and analysis environment that facilitates scientific investigation

with actual data, allowing rapid comprehension of regional events and increased

understanding of interconnected global environmental processes. The Giovanni

precursor, the TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS), successfully

demonstrated the basic elements of a system used entirely on the Web. The simplicity

of Giovanni enables the creation of portals dedicated to specific applications of remote

sensing. The first of such portals will be devoted to “precipitation data for agriculture.”

Release is expected in FY 2008. An A-Train Data Depot Portal and the Northern

Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative portal are also planned for release in the

same time frame. The former is expected to be particularly useful because the A-Train,

which is a formation of several NASA atmospheric observational missions in the same

orbit, allows for nearly simultaneous observations. In the dedicated Giovanni interface,

data from these missions will be readily available for multi-parameter comparison and

analysis. In FY 2008, a specific effort under the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study

will build a portal in collaboration with the Global Change Master Directory (GCMD)

for hydrological networking.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, and 3 and

Questions 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor, Jet Contrails, and Implications for Climate.15,16Water

vapor in the upper troposphere, while insignificant in the total mass of column water

vapor, can have significant effects on climate through the formation of clouds

(longwave forcing) or direct absorption of radiation. One study

using a radiative transfer model estimated that a 10% increase in

upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) could contribute as much as

1.4 Wm-2 of direct radiative forcing. Supersaturation in the upper

troposphere can be inferred from the presence of persistent

contrails behind jet aircraft, which require humidity above that of

ice saturation to form. Supersaturation is critical for understanding

the process of ice cloud formation. This process, which is also

affected by the presence or absence of aerosols, has implications

for the radiative balance of the climate system through its effect

on clouds and water vapor. Most global models of the climate

system do not permit supersaturation but instead dictate full

condensation of all water vapor to maintain a vapor pressure less

than 100% over ice at temperatures where only ice exists (typically

below -20 to -40°C). Using relative humidity (RH) data from the

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite, the

annual mean frequency of supersaturation maximizes below the

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
extratropical tropopause ranges between 10 and 30% of the time. This value is similar

to the annual mean potential contrail coverage frequency (which implies RH over ice

greater than 100%) reported from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather

Forecasts’ reanalyses. While these comparisons are good, AIRS RH is not a point-wise

measurement and observed supersaturation may not quantitatively define what an air

parcel or a cloud/ice nucleus experiences. Further studies of supersaturated conditions

from AIRS are being considered that may be able to shed some light on cloud

nucleation processes when combined with other satellite sensors. In the future, an

updated AIRS retrieval and cloud properties from a suite of sensors flying in formation

on NASA’s A-Train (such as MODIS on the EOS Aqua satellite and the Cloud

Profiling Radar on CloudSat) may be useful to answer important questions about ice

nucleation and its global impact, as well as to improve global models in order to

examine perturbations to the Earth system. Such studies could also be useful in

evaluating the potential implications of aviation on climate.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1,2,3, and 4 and

Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
73

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) Ovtchinnikov, M., T. Ackerman, R. Marchand, and M. Khairoutdinov, 2006: Evaluation of the

Multiscale Modeling Framework using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement

Program. Journal of Climate, 19(9), 1716-1729, doi:10.1175/JCLI3699.1.

2) Dirmeyer, P.A. and K.L. Brubaker, 2006: Trends in the Northern Hemisphere water cycle.

Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026359.

3) Rignot, E. and P. Kanagaratnam, 2006: Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice

Sheet. Science, 311, 986-990, doi:10.1126/science.1121381.

4) Peterson, B.J., J. McClelland, R. Curry, R.M. Holmes, J.E. Welsh, and K. Aagaard, 2006:

Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater cycle. Science, 313, 1061-1066.

5) NRC, 2007: Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic

Variability. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 159 pp.

6) Mote, P.W., 2006: Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in Western North

America. Journal of Climate, 19, 6209-6220. 

7) Hamlet, A., P.W. Mote, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Effects of temperature and

precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States. Journal of Climate, 18,

4545-4561.

8) Jayawickreme, D.H. and D.W. Hyndman, 2007: Evaluating the influence of land cover on

seasonal water budgets using NEXRAD rainfall and streamflow data. Water Resources Research, 43,

W02408, doi:10.1029/2005WR004460.

9) Miguez-Macho, G., Y. Fan, C. Weaver, R. Walko, and A. Robock, 2007: Incorporating water

table dynamics in climate modeling, Part II: Formulation, validation, and soil moisture simulation.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D13108, doi:10.1029/2006JD008112.

10) Mildrexler, D.J., M. Zhao, and S.W. Running, 2006: Where are the hottest spots on Earth? EOS,

Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 87(43), 461-467.

11) Sheffield, J., G. Goteti, and E.F. Wood, 2006: Development of a 50-year high-resolution data set

of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. Journal of Climate, 19, 3088-3111.

12) See <science.arm.gov/clasic/>.

13) See <asp.labworks.org/>.

14) Acker, J.G. and G. Leptoukh, 2007: Online analysis enhances use of NASA earth science data.

EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88, 14-17.

15) Gettelman, A., W.D. Collins, E.J. Fetzer, A. Eldering, F.W. Irion, P.B. Duffy, and G. Bala, 2006:

Climatology of upper tropospheric relative humidity from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and

implications for climate. Journal of Climate, 19, 6104-6121.

16) Gettleman, A., E.J. Fetzer, A. Eldering, and F.W. Irion, 2006: The global distribution of

supersaturation in the upper troposphere from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder. Journal of

Climate, 19, 6089-6103.

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
4 Land-Use and 

Land-Cover Change

Land use and land cover affect the global climate system through biogeophysical,

biogeochemical, and energy exchange processes. Variations in these processes due to

land-use and land-cover change in turn affect local, regional, and global climate patterns.

Key processes include uptake and release of greenhouse gases by the terrestrial

biosphere through photosynthesis, respiration, and evapotranspiration; the release of

aerosols and particulates from surface land-cover perturbations; variations in the

exchange of sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere due to land-cover

changes; variations in absorption and reflectance of radiation as land-cover changes

affect surface reflectance; and surface roughness effects on atmospheric momentum

that are land-cover dependent. Human activity can and does alter many of these

processes and attributes, but weather and climate, as well as geological and other

natural processes, are also important.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Strategic Research Questions

6.1 What tools or methods are needed to better

characterize historic and current land-use and landcover attributes and dynamics?

6.2 What are the primary drivers of land-use and landcover change?

6.3 What will land-use and land-cover patterns and

characteristics be 5 to 50 years into the future?

6.4 How do climate variability and change affect land use

and land cover, and what are the potential feedbacks of

changes in land use and land cover to climate?

6.5 What are the environmental, social, economic, and

human health consequences of current and potential

land-use and land-cover change over the next 5 to 50

years?

See Chapter 6 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
For example, land-cover changes such as deforestation and forest fires alter ecosystems

and release carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, and aerosols to the atmosphere.

They also change the reflectivity of the land surface which in turn determines how

much of the sun’s energy is absorbed and thus available as heat, while vegetation

transpiration and surface hydrology determine how this energy is partitioned into

latent and sensible heat fluxes. At the same time, vegetation and urban structure

determine surface roughness and thus air momentum and heat transport. 

Land-use and land-cover change studies also provide critical inputs to large-scale

vegetation biomass and forest cover assessments that are key components of the carbon

cycle. Future land-use and land-cover change goals include very accurate biomass

estimates to refine knowledge of carbon storage in vegetation, understanding regional

land-use changes that affect biomass, and quantifying linkages and feedbacks between

land-use and land-cover change, climate change forcings, climate change, and other

related human and environmental components. 

Research that examines historic, current, and future land-use and land-cover change,

their drivers, feedbacks to climate, and environmental, social, economic, and human

health consequences is therefore of utmost importance and often requires interagency

and intergovernmental cooperation. One example of a multi-agency effort is the Congo

Basin Forest Partnership, which focuses on conserving the second largest tropical

rainforest in the world in equatorial Africa. Satellite data are used to map forest extent,

determine habitat fragmentation, and enforce conservation laws, and thus minimize

greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Another example was the North America

Land Cover Summit held in September 2006, which explored and encouraged

collaboration among institutions and government agencies to advance the development

and application of land-cover information in Mexico, the United States, and Canada.1

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent research into land-use and land-cover change issues

supported by CCSP-participating agencies follow.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Drivers Vary by Region and Geopolitical Events.2,3 As

part of a national assessment of U.S. land-cover change, the USGS recently completed

and web-published an analysis of land-cover and land-use change rates for 20 U.S.

ecoregions that span 1,650,930 km2 of the eastern United States. Land-cover extent

and changes through time were assessed for ten land-cover types through five time

periods: 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000. Major findings of this study showed that

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
eastern U.S. land change was connected primarily to timber harvesting and urban

growth, together with a decline in agricultural activity. The observed changes were

complex and ecoregion specific. The southern United States is thought to be the

largest sink for carbon in the conterminous United States. In a long-term assessment

of change, researchers reconstructed an annual land cover of the southern United

States from 1860 to 2003 with a spatial resolution of 8 km. The pattern of land-cover

change in the southern United States was primarily driven by the change in cropland,

including cropland expansion and forest regrowth on abandoned cropland. The net

flux of carbon due to land-use change in this region was estimated to be zero from

1980 to 2003; but, from 1860 to 1980, land-use and land-cover change was estimated

to have resulted in a net release of 9.4 GtC across the southern United States.

Changes in Eastern Europe due to Socioeconomic and Political Factors following the

Breakdown of the Soviet Union.4 A comparison of land cover in the Polish, Slovak,

and Ukrainian Carpathian Mountains in 2000 from Landsat images showed marked

differences in forest cover, dominant forest species, and agricultural fragmentation.

These differences can largely be explained by socialist forest management. Postsocialist land-cover change was greatest in Ukraine, where there was high agricultural

fragmentation and widespread early-successional shrublands indicating extensive land

abandonment. The abundance and pattern of arable land and grassland was attributed

to land tenure in socialist times and economic transition since 1990. These results

suggest that broad-scale socioeconomic and political factors are of major significance

for land-cover patterns in Eastern Europe.

Land-Cover Change Detection using MODIS Data for Non-Agricultural Areas of the U.S.

East Coast.5 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m data

are used to form the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of

the photosynthetic capacity of vegetation. Composite NDVI data sets were used to

provide automated detection of vegetation change and alarm capability on a 1-year

time step for the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary System region of the U.S. east coast.

Vegetation change detection accuracy was assessed for 2002 at 88% with a reasonable

balance between change commission errors (22%) and change omission errors (28%).

Annual change detection rates across the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary System over the

2002 to 2005 study period were estimated at 0.7% per annum and varied from 0.4%

in 2003 to 0.9% in 2004. Extended regional variations were also readily apparent

ranging from 1.6 to 0.1% per annum for the tidal water and mountain ecological

zones, respectively. This research included the application of an automated protocol to

first filter the MODIS vegetation index data to remove unreliable data values and then

estimate the missing data values using a statistical technique to provide high-quality

uninterrupted data to support the change detection analysis. The methods and results

detailed apply only to non-agricultural areas. 

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Development and Verification of Improved Methods for Remote Assessment of Land-Use

Variables Linked to Climate Forcings in Brazil.6 Brazil has become a major producer in

world soybean markets, with about 10 million hectares currently planted. Cultivation

of this crop is rapidly expanding into two Brazilian ecological zones: the savannah or

cerrado, and the forested Amazonian region. The climatic consequences of converting

forested Amazonian areas into cropland are significant due to their vastly different

storage capacities for carbon. There is a need for accurate updated information on the

newly expanded agricultural areas in Brazil and the current total production in order

to predict contributions to climate forcings from these regions. A method for assessing

crop area and retrieving crop condition parameters that can be used to assess crop

yields was developed using data from the MODIS instrument onboard the Terra

satellite. 

Development and Verification of Improved Methods for Remote Assessment of Land-Use

Variables Linked to Climate Forcings in the Mid-West United States.7 Crop type, yield,

and land management affect the balance of greenhouse gas fluxes from land cover in the

mid-western United States. The magnitude of surface changes such as tillage intensity

affects residue cover and thus the moisture and radiation energy balances at the land

surface through changes in evaporation and reflectance. However, these distinctions

are difficult to assess across landscapes. Agricultural Research Service scientists working

in Iowa have developed a method using Landsat Thematic Mapper and EO-1 Hyperion

imaging spectrometer data to classify tillage intensity in cropland. 

Development and Verification of Improved Methods for Remote Assessment of Land-Use

Variables Linked to Climate Forcings in Central America.8 A methodology has been

developed for observing changes in tropical forest cover for large areas using data with

high temporal frequency from coarse-resolution satellite imagery. Proportional forest

cover change is estimated from multi-spectral, multi-temporal MODIS data that are

transformed to optimize the spectral detection of vegetation changes. This methodology

has been applied using MODIS data in Central America. Landsat data are also used to

record higher detail changes of forest cover in Central America. This work describes

the distinct patterns of change from year to year due to land-cover changes resulting

from forest clearing, regeneration, and changes in climate. It was found that the ability

to detect forest cover change patterns using this methodology was relatively independent

of the spatial resolution of the data. Associated model simulations indicated the best

metrics for detecting tropical forest clearing and regeneration are the shortwave

infrared information from the MODIS data at 500-m resolution. Errors were found to

range from 7 to 11% across the time periods of analysis. 

Regional Climate Change due to Agricultural and Urban Development in California.9 In

the western United States, large changes in land cover and land use have occurred

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
over the past century with rapidly expanding urbanization along the Pacific coast, and

extensive agricultural development inland. A regional climate model was used by

researchers to quantify the differences in surface energy fluxes and atmospheric

circulation associated with land-cover changes between approximately 1990 and the

present. They showed that irrigated agriculture in California lowered mean and

maximum surface air temperatures, while conversion of natural vegetation to urban

areas increased ground temperatures. This land-use change pattern resulted in changes

in the spatial patterns of air pressure and energy balance causing reduced westerly

breezes and increased inland breezes. Overall, conversion of natural vegetation to

irrigated agriculture has had a larger effect on California’s climate than urban growth

up until now, but future projections of increased conversion of irrigated land to

urban/suburban development could alter this balance. 

Western Wildfires, Land-Cover Disturbance and Response to

Climate Warming.10,11Wildfire intensity and duration can

have a large effect on forest recovery. Scientists from

Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the University of

California Merced, the USGS, and the University of

Arizona compiled a comprehensive database of large

wildfires in the western United States since 1970 and

compared it with land surface data and hydroclimatic

data to show that marked and sudden increases in large

wildfire activity in the mid-1980s—including higher

frequencies, longer seasons, and longer duration of the

fires—were strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and

earlier snowmelt. Recent studies in ponderosa pine-dominated forests of northern

Arizona have found that intense stand-replacing wildfire converts forests to grasslands

and shrublands and converts the land from a CO2 sink to a source, even 10 years after

burning, creating a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. Work emerging from

CCSP is contributing to the Joint Fire Science Program, which is attempting to

improve understanding of climate controls of wildfire (see Figure 6).

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
National Land Cover Database Available for Use in Climate Models and Assessments.12

The USGS, on behalf of the interagency Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics

Consortium (MRLC), has made available the National Land Cover Database (NLCD

2001) products for the conterminous United States. These products are available for

download from the MRLC web site at <www.mrlc.gov>. NLCD 2001 products

include 21 classes of land cover, percent tree canopy, and percent urban imperviousness

at 30-m resolution derived from Landsat imagery. NLCD 2001 will support a wide

variety of users, institutional sectors, and local- to national-scale applications with this

updated land-cover data. This baseline data set is essential in determining the effects of

land-cover change on climate as well as the effects of climate change on land cover. 

Deforestation Dynamics Assessed in Brazilian Amazon.13,14There has been considerable

international attention on the Brazilian Amazon Basin because of the alarming rate of

destruction of this high-biodiversity biome and because it is a major terrestrial buffer

against rising atmospheric CO2, a primary driver of global warming. Land-cover change

from pristine forests to other uses accounts for most of Brazil’s carbon emissions.

Investigators combined deforestation maps, field surveys, and satellite-based information

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 6: Coconino National

Forest, Northern Arizona.

This photo shows

Coconino National Forest

10 years after an intense standreplacing wildfire. The wildfire

converted the site from a dense

forest of ponderosa pine to a

grassland in which trees have

not regenerated. Such a

conversion from forest to grassor shrub-land is common in

ponderosa pine forests of the

southwestern United States

following intense wildfire. The

instrument tower measures

ecosystem CO2 flux for

comparison with unburned

forest. This site was a CO2 sink

10 years ago, but is now a CO2

source due to decomposition of

organic matter in the soil

offsetting photosynthesis by the

low leaf area of the grassland.

Credit: M. Montes-Helu,

Northern Arizona University.

Coconino National Forest, Northern Arizona
on vegetation phenology to characterize the fate of large (>25 hectare) clearings as

cropland, cattle pasture, or regrowing forest in the years after initial clearing in Mato

Grosso, the state with the highest deforestation rate and soybean production since

2001. Cropland deforestation averaged twice the size of pasture clearings, and more

than 90% of the conversion to cropland occurred the first year after deforestation.

Economics appears to be a major driver of this change as the area deforested for

cropland per year was directly related to the mean annual soybean price. Large-scale

logging is relatively new in this region, and impacts of selective logging alone have

been estimated to increase the annual carbon release from deforestation in the

Amazon by 4 to 7%, thus adding to the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere.

Remote-sensing techniques were applied to identify and map areas of selective logging

in the tropical upland or terra firme forests of the Brazilian Amazon in 1992, 1996,

and 1999. The research results indicate that selective logging is rapidly increasing in

both intensity and area. By 1992, at least 6,000 km2 of forest had been logged, and

the area affected expanded by an additional 10,000 km2 from 1992 to 1996 and

26,000 km2 from 1996 to 1999. Selective logging within protected areas increased

more than two-fold between 1992 and 1996, and more than five-fold between 1996

and 1999 in that region (see Figure 7).

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

Urgent land-use and land-cover change priority research questions include understanding

historic, current, and potential future land-use and land-cover change patterns,

dynamics, and drivers; understanding the mutual effects and feedbacks between climate

variability and land use/land cover; and forecasting environmental, social, economic,

and human health consequences. All of these land-use and land-cover change priority

issues directly influence climate by affecting atmospheric trace gas composition and

surface reflectance, and are thus critical to other CCSP research elements. While both

in situ and satellite observations are essential, two satellite sensors are especially critical:

MODIS (including its next generation moderate-resolution successor the Visible/

Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and Landsat. Without these satellite observations,

the current pace of discovery and innovation in global land-use and land-cover change

climate research would not be possible. Thus, an overall priority for this research element

is to ensure continuity and improvements in land-use and land-cover observations, to

compare and validate the different types of observations, and to coordinate activities

for analysis and synthesis of their implications and projections, as follows: 

• Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate

and related systems.

• Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
81

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Spatial Distribution and Intensity of Selectively Logged Areas in Amazonia

Logged

Area (%)

0.01 - 7

7.01 - 14

14.01 - 21

21.01 - 28

28.01 - 35

35.01 - 42

42.01 - 49

49.01 - 56

56.01 - 63

63.01 - 70

150

300

50

00

km

Area of

Study

1992

1996

1999

Figure 7: Spatial

Distribution and Intensity of

Selectively Logged Areas in

the Amazon Basin. Spatial

distribution and intensity of

selectively logged areas

summarized into 25 by 25 km

grid cells in 1992, 1996, and

1999 for the Amazon Basin of

Brazil. Credit: E.A.T. Matricardi,

D.L. Skole, and W.H.

Chomentowski, Michigan State

University; M.A. Cochrane,

South Dakota State University;

and M. Pedlowski, Universidade

Estadual do Norte Fluminense

Darcy Ribeiro, Brazil (reproduced

from the International Journal

of Remote Sensing with

permission from the publisher

Taylor & Francis Group).
• Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment,

including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of

observed variability and change.

Development of Land-Use Change Models. Developing future land-use and land-cover

change scenarios and understanding drivers and feedbacks are necessary to assess

impacts on the environment. A tool to generate future LULCC scenarios consistent

with IPCC emissions scenarios is being developed, and will be used to assess the

environmental impacts of climate and land-use change regionally and nationally. This

will improve projections of climate and global change and contribute to understanding

of possible management risks and opportunities related to climate change. It also

contributes directly to understanding the feedbacks between climate change,

conservation policies, and land-use and land-cover decisions.

This activity will address CCSP Goals 3, 4, and 5 and

Questions 6.1, 6.3, and 6.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Invasive Species Impacts on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. Land use and climate

change interact to influence the spread of alien or invasive species that in turn have

ecological impacts that may result in climate forcings. The EPA, NASA, and USDA

are coordinating solicitations to quantitatively investigate these interactions. In

addition, a workshop is planned to study and determine future directions for research

on interactions between land-use and land-cover change and the carbon cycle relating

to climate change. These efforts help quantify climate change drivers and feedbacks,

reduce uncertainties in projections of change, and improve understanding of sensitivities

of natural and managed ecosystems. 

This activity will address CCSP Goals 2, 3, and 4 and

Questions 6.2, 6.4, and 6.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Prototype Land-Cover Mapping Activities. The National Land Cover Database effort in

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico will be finished by December 2007, marking

completion of the first compilation of nationwide land cover ever produced at 30-m

resolution. This will improve knowledge of Earth’s present environment and its

variability and form the baseline for quantifying change at high spatial resolution.

This activity will address CCSP Goal 1 and Question 6.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Landsat Data Continuity Mission. The importance of Landsat data continuity was a

priority for FY 2007 and was emphasized in the FY 2007 edition of Our Changing

Planet. Landsat Data Continuity Mission planning continues toward a proposed 2010

launch. In October 2006, NASA and USGS announced the selection and research

objectives for the Landsat Science Team. The Science Team will recommend strategies

for the effective use of archived data from Landsat sensors and investigate the

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
requirements for future sensors to meet the needs of Landsat users, including the

needs of policymakers at all levels of government. The team will cooperate with other

Earth-observing missions, both nationally and internationally. This will improve

quantification of drivers and atmospheric forcings of climate change, contribute to

improved projections of this change, and provide improved understanding of the

present environment, its variability, and how it is changing. 

This activity will address CCSP Goals 1, 2, and 3 and

Question 6.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) USAID, 2007: The Congo Basin Forests: State of the Forests 2006. Central African Regional Program

on the Environment, U.S. AID, Washington, D.C., USA, 256 pp.

2) See <eros.usgs.gov/LT/LCCEUS.html>.

3) Acevedo, W., J.L. Taylor, D.J. Hester, C.S. Mladinich, and S. Glavac (eds.), 2006: Rates, Trends,

Causes, and Consequences of Urban Land-Use Change in the United States. USGS Professional Paper

1726, US Geological Survey, 200 pp. Available at <pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1726/pp1726.pdf>.

4) Tobias, K., V.C. Radeloff, K. Perzanowski, P. Hostert, and K. Perzanowski, 2006: Cross-border

comparison of land cover and landscape pattern in Eastern Europe using a hybrid classification

technique. Remote Sensing of Environment, 103(4), 449-464.

5) Lunetta, R.S., J.F. Knight, J. Ediriwickrem, J.G. Lyon, and L.D. Worthy, 2006: Land-cover

change detection using multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 105(2),

142-154.

6) Doraiswamy, P.C., B. Akhmedov, L. Beard, A. Stern, and R. Mueller, 2007: Operational

prediction of crop yields using MODIS data and products. International Archives of Photogrammetry,

Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences Special Publications (in press). Available at

<www.ars.usda.gov/SP2UserFiles/person/1430/ISPRS_AGRIFISH_Final.pdf>.

7) Daughtry, C.S.T., P.C. Doraiswamy, E.R. Hunt, A.J. Stern, J.E. McMurtrey, and J.H. Prueger,

2006: Remote sensing of crop residue cover and soil tillage intensity. Soil and Tillage Research, 91,

101-108.

8) Hayes, D.J. and W.B. Cohen, 2007: Spatial, spectral, and temporal patterns of tropical forest

cover change as observed with multiple scales of optical satellite data. Remote Sensing of

Environment, 106(1), 1-16.

9) Kueppers, L.M., M.A. Snyder, and L.C. Sloan, 2007: Irrigation cooling effect. Geophysical

Research Letters, 34(3), L03703, doi:10.1029/2006GL028679.

10) Westerling, A.L, H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam, 2006: Warming and earlier

spring increases western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science, 313, 940-943.

11) Dore, S., M.C. Montes-Helu, B. Sullivan, J.P. Kaye, S.C. Hart, G. Koch, and B. Hungate, 2007:

The effect of intense wildfires on ecosystem gas exchange of ponderosa pine forests in northern

Arizona. North American Carbon Program Investigators meeting, 22-26 January 2007, Colorado Springs,

Colorado. Abstract E.2 p. 45. Available at <www.nacarbon.org/cgi-nacp/2007_meetings/

mtg2007_agenda.pl?meeting_id=1>.

12) See <epa.gov/mrlc/nlcd.html>.

13) Morton, D.C., R.S. DeFries, Y.E. Shimabukuro, L.O. Anderson, E. Arai, F. del Bon EspiritoSanto, R. Freitas, and J. Morisette, 2006: Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in

Southern Brazilian Amazon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(39), 14637-14641.

14) Matricardi, E.A.T., D.L. Skole, M.A. Cochrane, M. Pedlowski, and W.H. Chomentowski, 2007:

Multi-temporal assessment of selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon using Landsat data.

International Journal of Remote Sensing, 28(1-2), 63-82.

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
5 Global Carbon

Cycle

The U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program is clarifying the changes, magnitudes, and

distributions of carbon sources and sinks; the fluxes between the major terrestrial,

oceanic, and atmospheric carbon reservoirs; and the underlying mechanisms involved

including human activities, fossil-fuel emissions, land use, and climate. Program

scientists are now beginning to reveal and quantify some of the intricate complexities

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Strategic Research Questions

7.1 What are the magnitudes and distributions of North

American carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to

centennial time scales, and what are the processes

controlling their dynamics?

7.2 What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean

carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial

time scales, and what are the processes controlling

their dynamics?

7.3 What are the effects on carbon sources and sinks of

past, present, and future land-use change and resource

management practices at local, regional, and global

scales?

7.4 How do global terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric

carbon sources and sinks change on seasonal to

centennial time scales, and how can this knowledge be

integrated to quantify and explain annual global carbon

budgets? 

7.5 What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of

carbon dioxide, methane, and other carbon-containing

greenhouse gases, and how will terrestrial and marine carbon sources and

sinks change in the future?

7.6 How will the Earth system, and its different components, respond to various

options for managing carbon in the environment, and what scientific

information is needed for evaluating these options?

See Chapter 7 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
of and interactions

between the Earth’s carbon

reservoirs and climate.

The Carbon Cycle Science

Program engages many

science disciplines and

extends over a broad range

of spatial and temporal

scales. Many Federal

agencies coordinate and

support the activities

included under the North

American Carbon Program

(NACP) and the Ocean

Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC) program. In FY 2008, the integration of the

terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric investigations will be critical and will continue

as a priority of the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program. Assimilation of carbon data

into models is developing at scales from regional to global as an important means of

incorporating observations into carbon cycle analyses. The goal is to develop

increasingly realistic, fully coupled carbon cycle-climate models to provide insight

into potential feedbacks between and drivers of these major Earth systems. 

A major accomplishment for this research element involves publication of The First

State of the Carbon Cycle Report on the North American Carbon Budget and Implications

for the Global Carbon Cycle (CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2). It synthesizes

current knowledge and uncertainties about carbon in North America relevant to the

United States and the rest

of the world, and provides

baseline information to

support decisionmaking

on key issues related to

U.S. carbon management

and policy. In FY 2008,

the NACP will address

key gaps and uncertainties

identified in the synthesis.

Other planned activities

will focus on integrating

carbon cycle research,

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) is designed to

address Strategic Research Question 7.1 in Chapter 7 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan. It will quantify the magnitudes and

distributions of terrestrial, freshwater, oceanic, and atmospheric

carbon sources and sinks for North America and adjacent

oceans; enhance understanding of the processes controlling

source and sink dynamics; and produce consistent analyses of

North America’s carbon budget that explain regional and

continental contributions and year-to-year variability. This

program is committed to reducing uncertainties related to the

increase of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere and

the amount of carbon—including the fraction of fossil-fuel

carbon—being taken up by North America’s ecosystems and

adjacent oceans. 

THE NORTH AMERICAN

CARBON PROGRAM

The Ocean Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC) program is

designed to address Strategic Research Question 7.2 in

Chapter 7 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. It will focus on oceanic

monitoring and research aimed at determining how much

atmospheric carbon dioxide is being taken up by the ocean at

the present time and how climate change will affect the future

behavior of the oceanic carbon sink. The terrestrial and ocean

carbon programs are synergistic, integrating program activities

in addressing carbon dynamics on the coastal shelves adjacent

to North America, where carbon changes in the terrestrial

system greatly influence carbon processes in the coastal ocean.

THE OCEAN CARBON AND

CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM
increasing observational

and network capabilities,

measuring carbon fluxes

and stocks, conducting

manipulative experiments,

modeling the carbon cycle

for predictive analyses, and

coupling carbon models

with other Earth

component models for

Earth system analyses.

Successful completion will

provide, and be measured

by, integrated and accessible

observational databases,

quantified carbon budgets,

more precise estimates of changes occurring or likely to occur, and more accurate

carbon sink and source estimates. 

Looking beyond FY 2008, the research element will extend its observation and network

systems to high latitudes and other undersampled regions of the world. The anticipated

emphasis on high-latitude research will provide critical scientific information on the

carbon dynamics of the undersampled regions of North America and adjacent oceans,

Antarctica, and the Southern Ocean as high-latitude warming changes system dynamics.

Collaborations with Canada and Mexico under the Joint NACP (Canada, Mexico, and

the United States) cooperative will be well underway. Efforts are also underway to

initiate stronger international collaborations with the European Union and its research

program under the CarboEurope and CarboOcean Programs. Other international

initiatives and collaborations are also expected to address regional to global issues,

interactions between carbon cycle dynamics and global climate change, linkages

between and feedbacks within Earth systems, and the uncertainties associated with

continental and oceanic carbon sources and sinks. 

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

The U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program contributes to all

CCSP goals, focusing particularly on Goal 2: Improved

quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the

Earth’s climate and related systems. It addresses directly the six

carbon cycle questions of Chapter 7 of the CCSP Strategic

Plan. The research element is synergistic with the Ecosystems,

Global Water Cycle, Climate Variability and Change,

Atmospheric Composition, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change,

and Human Contributions and Responses research elements.

The agencies responsible for carbon cycle research are DOE,

NASA, NOAA, NSF, USDA, and USGS. Together, they have

planned and are coordinating a multidisciplinary research

strategy to integrate the broad range of needed infrastructure

and resources, scientific expertise, and stakeholder input

essential for program success and improved decision processes.

U.S. CARBON CYCLE

SCIENCE PROGRAM
HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The research highlights that follow are derived from carbon cycle science programs

spanning terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric reservoirs and the complex interactions

that link these reservoirs within the global carbon cycle.

Climate Forcing

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are significant forcing agents

of Earth’s climate and have been increasing over the past 2 centuries as a result of

human activities. Approximately 85 to 90% of today’s anthropogenic emissions are

attributed to fossil-fuel combustion with land-use change accounting for most of the

rest. Future concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere will

depend on the long-term trends and variability in natural and anthropogenic emissions

and the capacity of natural and managed sinks in the carbon cycle.

Distinguishing Fossil Fuel Emissions from Biological CO2 Cycling.1 Measurements of

atmospheric 14CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) as tracers of

fossil-fuel CO2 emissions show that 14CO2 provides accurate quantification of fossilfuel CO2. Issues remain concerning the distributions of SF6 and CO emissions relative

to CO2 that may bias regional estimates. This research focused mainly on winter and

spring data from two different regions, Colorado and New England, to test the

approach under widely different conditions. The effort as a whole, however, extends

to much of the atmospheric research network and is anticipated to be enhanced to

produce viable regional estimates of fossil-fuel contributions to atmospheric CO2 and

CH4 concentrations, thus allowing more accurate estimates of biological contributions

to the atmospheric carbon budget.

Forest Fire Impacts on Climate Change.2 Contemporary wisdom supports the concept

that increases in temperature would lengthen the growing season in boreal ecosystems

and increase the probability of fire, leading to a positive feedback between warming,

fires, carbon loss, and future climate change. However, a new multi-factor analysis of

the long-term effects of a well-characterized boreal forest fire indicates that the net

radiative forcing may be negative. During the first year after the fire, all factors

combined to increase radiative forcing (34 ± 31 Wm-2 of burned area), but when

averaged over an 80-year fire cycle the net effect was to decrease radiative forcing

(-2.3 ± 2.2 Wm-2). The reason is that multidecadal increases in surface reflectance

had a larger impact than the fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This study illustrates the

importance of interdisciplinary, multi-factor analysis and the need to examine effects

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
over decades to centuries in order to fully understand the impacts of disturbance and

the feedbacks between Earth’s physical and biogeochemical systems.

Changes in Forest and Soil Carbon.3,4 A 13-year study of carbon flux measurements at

the Harvard Forest clearly shows that the uptake of atmospheric CO2 has been

increasing in this ecosystem; mean carbon gain for the 1992 to 2004 period was

2.4 metric tons of carbon ha-1 yr-1, and carbon uptake has been increasing at the rate

of 0.15 metric ton of carbon ha-1 yr-1. This magnitude of forest carbon gain is typical

of other findings from the AmeriFlux observation network. In the top 20-cm soil layer

in preserved old-growth forests in southern China, a study shows that soils accumulated

atmospheric carbon at an unexpectedly high rate from 1979 to 2003. These long-term

observations show that the rate of photosynthetic carbon assimilation can exceed

ecosystem carbon loss by respiration. Such studies demonstrate the significant potential

for terrestrial sources and sinks to affect atmospheric CO2 increases.

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

The terrestrial carbon cycle is composed of a complex set of interactive biological,

chemical, and physical processes that transfer carbon between land, oceans, and the

atmosphere. Collectively, these processes influence atmospheric CO2 and CH4

concentrations. Improving the scientific understanding of the role of these reservoirs

and links in the carbon cycle reduces the uncertainty about the factors influencing

greenhouse gas increases and provides a stronger basis for climate change decision

support, in particular for carbon management to mitigate CO2 and CH4 increases. 

Carbon Storage in Forested Ecosystems.5,6,7 Forested ecosystems in the United States

have a major impact on regional and global sources of CO2—taking up 25 to 50% of

CO2 emitted annually from fossil-fuel combustion in the United States, a significant

amount since the United

States accounts for about

20% of global emissions.

The CO2 Boundary-Layer

and Regional Airborne

(COBRA) study developed

model-data fusion methods

to determine accurate

regional- and continentalscale carbon budgets and to

attribute carbon fluxes to

88

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
specific causes and processes. Model predictions for the 1990s, with and without

contributions from CO2 fertilization, are within the range of uncertainties; but, in the

absence of CO2 fertilization, the carbon sink in forests will approach zero by 2050, as

the effects of forest harvesting offset those of agricultural land abandonment. Longterm measurements, such as those undertaken by AmeriFlux and tall-tower networks,

are critical for detecting the signatures of processes that give rise to long-term uptake

of atmospheric CO2 by major ecosystems of North America.

Seasonality of Amazonian Forests.8 Measurements of vegetation “greenness” from the

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites

revealed an increase in greenness across Amazonian forests during the dry season, a

pattern opposite to what had been previously thought and portrayed in models (see

Figure 8). Researchers explained that the deep-rooted forests are able to access deep

soil water and take advantage of the increased sunlight in the dry season. In contrast,

areas converted to pastures, with more shallowly rooted plants, show the expected

decline in greenness during the dry season. With this knowledge, scientists can refine

models used to represent the tropical biosphere and how it exchanges carbon with the

atmosphere, thus improving long-term carbon cycle and climate models.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 8: Basin-Wide

Greening in Dry Season.

Amazon rainforest basin-wide

image of average (2000-2005)

Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)

change between the wet

(October) and dry (June)

seasons. Green colors depict

“greening” and red colors depict

“browning” in the dry season.

Credit: A.R. Huete, K. Didan,

P. Ratana, and S.R. Seleska,

University of Arizona;

Y.E. Shimabukuro, Instituto

Nacional de Pesquisas

Espaciais, Brazil; L.R. Hutyra,

Harvard University; W. Yang and

R. Myneni, Boston University;

and R.R. Nemani, NASA / Ames

Research Center (reproduced

from Geophysical Research

Letters with permission from the

American Geophysical Union).
Carbon Storage in Forest Soils.9 A novel approach was developed to monitor carbon

sequestration in aggregates of small particles that has profound implications for carbon

protection in soil. The approach is based on ultra-small angle X-ray scattering of

synchrotron X-rays that indicates the tendency of soil containing organic carbon to

become more stable as a greater proportion of the soil micropores become filled. This

mechanism suggests that the potential for organic matter storage in soil is larger than

generally thought because it is neither limited by the surface area of minerals nor

dependent on strong sorption by these surfaces. Another critical implication is that

agricultural management and land use, particularly as they affect the stability of a

microporous soil structure, can significantly alter the extent of carbon sequestration

via both positive and negative feedbacks. 

Oceanic Carbon Cycle

The global ocean carbon sink is an important component of the climate system that

regulates the uptake, storage, and release of CO2 and other climate-relevant chemical

species to the atmosphere. The future behavior of this carbon sink is quite uncertain

because of the potential impacts of climate change on many ocean processes.

Ocean Carbon Dynamics.10The air-sea exchange and storage of CO2 in the tropical

and extra-tropical North Pacific Ocean play a key role in the global carbon cycle.

Upwelling in the equatorial Pacific brings high carbon content water to the surface,

generating the ocean’s largest natural source of CO2 to the atmosphere. The tropical

Pacific outgassing is well known to respond very sensitively to climatic fluctuations,

particularly the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with outgassing nearly vanishing

during a fully developed El Niño. Modeling studies have suggested that fluctuations in

the tropical Pacific dominate the global air-sea CO2 flux variability on interannual time

scales. The most important results on surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and

air-sea CO2 flux variability in the North Pacific to date are summarized in Figure 9.

The small plots in each of the regions illustrate the observed trends in surface ocean

pCO2 over the last 2 decades. Most regions show a steady increase at rates roughly the

90

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
same as that of atmospheric pCO2 over the same time period. The two notable

exceptions are the far western subarctic region where surface water pCO2 has

decreased with time, and the equatorial Pacific which shows a rate of pCO2 increase

akin to that of atmospheric CO2 only after 1990, while oceanic pCO2 remained nearly

constant before. The reasons behind these different trends are still under investigation,

but they highlight the need for continuing observations of the oceanic carbon system.

Coastal Carbon Storage.11,12 Recent research on carbon storage in intertidal and

subtidal estuarine ecosystems in the northeastern United States shows that these

systems store more organic carbon to a depth of 1 m than forest soils in the adjacent

uplands. The reason for this observation is that subtidal and intertidal soils are generally

located on stable landforms and are accumulating organic carbon annually as sea level

rises. Contrary to the common assumption that the carbon being stored in these

ecosystems is from terrestrial vegetation, the majority of the organic carbon found

was fixed by benthic algae. These results indicate the importance of including subtidal

and intertidal estuarine ecosystems in global carbon models. 

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 9: Trends in and Controlling Factors for CO2 Partial Pressure at the Ocean Surface.

This illustration provides a summary of trends in CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) at the ocean surface and

controls in the North Pacific. Increasing trends in the subplots indicate that ocean CO2 is increasing with

the atmospheric concentration as expected. Flat or decreasing trends indicate that other processes are

working to counteract the natural CO2 increase. The text in the figure identifies the observed variability

and primary controls on the observed trends. IA, DIC, and T stand for interannual variability, dissolved

inorganic carbon, and temperature, respectively. Credit: C. Sabine, NOAA / Pacific Marine Environmental

Laboratory and N. Gruber, University of California - Los Angeles (reproduced from the Journal of

Geophysical Research with permission from the American Geophysical Union).

T ends n and Con o ng Fac o s o

CO Pa a P essu e a he Ocean Su ace

T op ca Pac c

W S o C A V

D C Co o Dom

NE S b op ca Pac c

W S o C

Sm A V

D C T Co o N B

pCO

pCO

pCO pCO

So e S b op ca Pac c

W S o C Sm A V

T Co o Dom

E S ba c c Pac c

Mo S o C

Sm A V

D C T Co o N B

W S ba c c Pac c

S o S o C

Mo A V

D C T Co o V

pCO

NW S b op ca Pac c

S o S o C

Sm A V

D C T Co o V

pCO

E E 8 W W 9 W

N

4 N

6 N
High-Latitude Systems

High-latitude systems are becoming increasingly important sources of CO2 and CH4

in the atmosphere as regional warming changes carbon dynamics in the cold regions.

Understanding carbon dynamics in high-latitude systems and the factors that may lead

to changes in those dynamics are crucial elements of global carbon modeling and

essential for understanding the linkages and feedbacks between carbon, ecosystems

and land cover, hydrology, and climate variability and change. 

Arctic Ocean Sensitivity to Climate Change.13The Arctic Ocean and adjacent continental

shelf seas are particularly sensitive to long-term changes and low-frequency modes of

atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forcing arising from climate change. The cold, low-salinity

surface waters of the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean are undersaturated with

respect to CO2 in the atmosphere and thus the region has the potential to take up

atmospheric CO2, although presently covered over by sea ice. Undersaturated CO2

conditions in the Arctic Ocean are maintained by export of water with low dissolved

inorganic carbon content and modified by intense seasonal shelf primary production.

Sea ice extent and volume in the Arctic Ocean have decreased over the last few

decades, and researchers have estimated that the Arctic Ocean sink for CO2 has nearly

tripled over the last three decades (24 to 66 million metric tons of carbon per year)

due to sea ice retreat with future sea ice melting projected to enhance air-to-sea CO2

flux by about 28% per decade. 

Carbon Export from Permafrost Ecosystems.14,15The

Yukon River discharges almost 7.8 million metric tons

of carbon to the Bering Sea annually, of which about

30% is organic. With permafrost thawing throughout

the Yukon basin, scientists are concerned about a

potentially large release of bio-available dissolved and

particulate organic carbon to the Arctic Ocean.

Radiocarbon analysis of the discharged carbon indicates

that most of the dissolved organic carbon is modern,

but that particulate carbon has a large component that

is thousands of years old. This is consistent with most

particulate organic carbon originating from erosion of

riverbanks and most dissolved organic carbon originating

from surface runoff—not from thawed permafrost.

Earlier work suggests that this pattern may continue if

newly thawed dissolved organic carbon is respired

rather than exported downstream.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Methane Release from Thawed Permafrost Lowlands.16 Global warming is causing

permafrost to thaw in areas of Alaska, Canada, and Siberia. When permafrost thaws,

localized areas in a landscape may collapse and flood, forming wetlands where there

were once forests. According to recent research, these wetlands release large amounts

of CH4 to the atmosphere compared to the surrounding forests. Wetlands in interior

Alaska formed from permafrost thaw released up to 35 times more CH4 per unit area

than the surrounding forest soils over 1 year. If widespread wetland formation occurs

across areas of thawing permafrost, the increase in CH4 release could have significant

impacts on global climate change because it is a strong greenhouse gas.

Fire Disturbance and Permafrost Degradation in Boreal Regions.17,18 Fire regimes and

permafrost degradation, which are closely linked through organic soil (ground fuel) in

boreal regions, have the potential to shift in response to changes in climate. Over the

past few decades, fire disturbance maintained the heterogeneous patterns of both

permafrost and vegetation in boreal forests, mainly through the regulation of soil

temperature by organic soil thickness. More severe burns such as occurred in 2004

and 2005, however, may promote a vastly different landscape depending in part on

how much post-fire organic soil is retained. In all boreal landscapes, whether burned

or not, ecosystem response to climate as well as associated carbon and energy

exchanges depend largely on whether thaw-water is pooled on or drained from the

landscape. Over the next several years, investigations will focus on detecting and

studying the fate of both surface water and ecosystem carbon under various thaw

regimes in the Alaskan interior.

Carbon Management and Decision Support

Carbon cycle research provides scientific input to policy and resource management

decisions for carbon management and mitigation of climate change. The results of

research supported by the carbon cycle research element of the CCSP are informing

carbon management, as described in the research highlights below, and their impact is

expected to increase over the course of this program. 

The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report: CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2.19

This report finds that in 2003, North American terrestrial carbon sinks removed

approximately 520 million metric tons of carbon per year (±50% with 95% confidence)

from the atmosphere, which is equivalent to approximately 30% of North American

fossil-fuel emissions in 2003. Approximately 50% of the sink is due to the regrowth of

forests in the United States on former agricultural land and on forested land recovering

from harvest. This sink is expected to decline. As forests mature they grow more

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slowly and take up less carbon from the atmosphere. The current source to sink

imbalance of more than 3 to 1 (ratio of fossil-fuel emissions to net terrestrial carbon

uptake) and the potential trend of increasing sources and decreasing sinks suggest that

addressing imbalances in the North American carbon budget will likely require actions

focused on reducing fossil-fuel emissions. Options focused on enhancing carbon sinks

in soils and vegetation can contribute as well, but their potential is far from sufficient

to offset current fossil-fuel emissions.

Carbon Sequestration in Low-Production Lands.20 Sequestering

carbon through afforestation on low-production cropland and

rangeland may be a means of reducing net carbon emissions

from the United States and a process worth monitoring for

carbon management. Information on the potential for such

sequestration was derived through application of an ecosystem

carbon model using a “greenness” product obtained from the

Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)—a

space-borne instrument. The model results, at 8-km resolution,

show the spatial variability in monthly net primary production

(NPP) and accumulation rates of biomass (i.e., carbon storage) in low-production

cropland and rangelands (see Figure 10). The model predictions indicate potential

carbon sequestration rates of 300 million metric tons per year—the equivalent of

20% of the current U.S. carbon emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. 

Forest Management.21 Healthy, productive forests constitute an important terrestrial

buffer against rising atmospheric CO2, a major driver of climate change. A team of

American and Brazilian scientists, using extensive high-resolution multi-satellite

analyses, concluded that forest harvests in the Brazilian Amazon are dominated by

practices that leave forests more susceptible to drought and fire and threaten their

long-term health and productivity. At the same time, they found that recently logged

forests have a high probability of being cleared for farming and settlements, further

reducing the potential of this land for carbon storage. Recently, the Brazilian Government

enacted legislation to regulate forest lands and the timber industry, and this new policy

has the potential to maintain forests under long-term timber management. 

Landowners’ Greenhouse Gas Reporting Tools.22,23,24 A new set of tools have been

developed for the agricultural and forestry sectors to enable farmers and landowners

to estimate carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. These sectors can

reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by increasing carbon

sequestration in biomass and soils, by reducing fossil-fuel emissions through use of

climate-neutral fuels, and by substituting agricultural and forestry products that

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Figure 10: Potential Carbon

Gains from Afforestation. Potential

afforestation carbon gains in (a) relatively

low-production crop areas, and

(b) relatively low-production rangelands.

Both panels are mapped to show

predicted gross carbon sink flux per

year at 1-km resolution. Corrections for

probable net primary productivity loss

over time due to decomposition,

disturbance, and aging in predicted

forest stands are not included.

Credit: C. Potter and M. Fladeland,

NASA / Ames Research Center;

S. Klooster and V. Genovese, California

State University – Monterey Bay; and

S. Hiatt, San Jose State University and

Education Associates (reproduced from

Climatic Change with permission from

Springer Netherlands).

Potential Carbon Gains from Afforestation

gC m 2 yr 1

0 - 134.71 134.72 - 363.3 363.31 - 444.94 444.95 - 510.25 510.26 - 563.32

563.33 - 616.39 616.4 - 673.54 673.55 - 759.26 759.27 - 1,045 Non-Cropland

gC m 2 yr 1

0 - 109.44 109.45 - 218.89 218.9 - 328.33 328.34 - 437.78 437.79 - 547.22

547.23 - 656.67 656.68 - 766.11 766.12 - 875.56 875.57 - 985 Non-Rangeland

a)

b)
require less energy than other materials to produce. The tools have been adopted by

DOE for use in the National Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reporting Registry. The tools

could also be adopted for use in state or regional registries and for use by voluntary

greenhouse gas markets, opening new opportunities to reward landowners for reducing

atmospheric greenhouse gases, enabling industry to meet global environmental goals

at lower costs, and strengthening rural economies while protecting the environment.

Societally Useful Measure of Greenhouse Gas Forcing.25The challenge of effectively

informing society led scientists to develop a simple way to express greenhouse gas

forcing for decisionmakers and the public. The perturbation to radiative climate

forcing that has the largest magnitude and smallest scientific uncertainty is the forcing

related to changes in long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases—in particular CO2,

CH4, nitrous oxide (N2O) and halocarbons. The change in annual total radiative forcing

by these gases since the pre-industrial era (1750) is used to define the Annual

Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is normalized to radiative forcing in 1990. The

AGGI shows that between 1990 and 2006 there was a 23% increase in radiative

forcing due to long-lived greenhouse gases. This index is designed to help bridge the

technical gap between scientists and decisionmakers and is now used and disseminated

by the World Meteorological Organization.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

Continuing integration within the NACP and the OCCC program will provide better

estimates of the North American carbon budget including the roles of adjacent ocean

basins. More comprehensive global and regional models and analyses, driven by

improved in situ measurements and experiments, reservoir inventories, and remote

sensing will provide better forecasts and understanding of critical carbon cycle

dynamics.

Advanced Carbon Models. Research will continue to develop carbon cycle and coupled

carbon-climate models that are more comprehensive in their treatment of significant

carbon dynamics and drivers, including those involving or stemming from human

activities. These advanced models will incorporate multiple, interacting factors,

address time scales of decades to centuries, and integrate across spatial scales. Carbon

data assimilation at both regional and continental scales will continue to integrate

multiple data streams including fluxes by eddy-covariance methods, atmospheric CO2

and CH4 concentrations using tower-based instruments, and aircraft and satellite

remote-sensing observations. An important aspect of these integrated investigations is

the potential to reveal expected drivers within the carbon cycle and climate system,

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
and especially in those systems where sensitivities of carbon processes and stocks to

climate change are high (e.g., Arctic and boreal systems). Modeling research focusing

on the Southern Ocean and Antarctica will capitalize on existing and impending

remote and in situ observations and will include synthesized data sets, existing models,

and data assimilation techniques to advance the ability to quantify southern highlatitude sensitivities and variability. Significant advances are expected in regional and

global carbon cycle modeling.

These activities will address Goals 2, 3, and 5 and

Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Atmospheric Monitoring. Measurements of radiative trace species (including CO2 and

CH4), started six years ago at Summit, Greenland, will continue, and measurements

will be expanded to include tracers of carbon sources (e.g., hydrofluorocarbons) with

new instrumentation. Weekly carbon cycle flask measurements will continue across

Arctic areas in Canada, Norway, Iceland, Finland, the North Atlantic, and Alaska. A

collaborative effort of U.S. agencies in the Yukon will install instrumentation for

continuous, vertical sampling within a 300-m boundary layer. Aircraft sampling for

carbon cycle gases will be expanded to sites in Saskatchewan, Canada and Poker Flats,

Alaska. If funding permits, aircraft sampling will be added over Churchill on Hudson

Bay, Manitoba, and several other sites. International cooperation continues with Russia

at the Baseline Observatory on the central Siberian Arctic Ocean coast where carbon

gas measurements will be conducted, particularly the measurements of CH4 that

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
could be released from wetlands as the northern high latitudes continue to warm. In

the Antarctic, flask gas sampling will continue at the South Pole Station, and at Halley,

Syowa, and Palmer on the Antarctic coast. Carbon flask sampling will continue across

the Drake Passage and around Antarctica on the support ship from Ushuaia to Palmer

and the annual Chinese cruise, respectively. 

These activities will address Goals 2, 3, and 4 and

Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Ocean Carbon. Ongoing and new studies will continue to address understanding

of the ocean carbon cycle and its effects on ocean carbon dynamics. Of particular

interest are the feedbacks and drivers of ocean chemistry and biology, the biotic and

abiotic partitioning of carbon, and constraints on ocean carbon sequestration. An

interagency field study of

air-sea CO2 flux and

remotely sensed data in the

high-latitude Southern

Ocean during the 2007-

2008 austral summer will

focus on understanding

both (a) the kinetics of gas

exchange and the factors

controlling it, and (b) the

physical and biogeochemical

factors controlling the

exchange of CO2 across

the air-sea interface, in the

context of developing parameterizations for those factors that can ultimately be

remotely sensed to determine regional and global air-sea CO2 fluxes. The Southern

Ocean Gas Exchange Experiment (SO GasEx) will be conducted in the Atlantic sector

of the Southern Ocean. Shipboard studies will include physical, chemical, biological,

and meteorological measurements. 

These activities will address Goals 2 and 3 and

Questions 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Satellite Remote Sensing. A new satellite will be launched with the

Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) to provide, for the first time,

consistent atmospheric carbon observations globally from space.

Measurements made from the observatory will permit carbon data

assimilation systems to derive estimates of carbon sources and sinks

with far higher spatial and temporal resolutions.

This activity will address Goals 2 and 3 and

Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Carbon Management and Decision Support. New projects are underway that will allow

government agencies, industry associations, and private landowners to include carbon

management information derived from data, ecosystem models, and on-line tools

(products of carbon cycle science research) into near- and long-term resource

management decisions and policies. These projects are having a particular impact on

forest management and agricultural practices. Projects will continue beyond the fiscal

year to evaluate the utility of new observations of carbon in the atmosphere (e.g.,

from OCO to monitor and manage carbon sources and sinks) and to identify key

carbon management questions that will benefit from a high-latitude priority planned

for FY 2009.

These activities will address Goals 2 and 4 and

Questions 7.3, 7.4, and 7.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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100

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

1) Turnbull, J.C., J.B. Miller, S.J. Lehman, P.P. Tans, R.J. Sparks, and J. Southon, 2006: Comparison

of 14CO2, CO, and SF6 as tracers for recently added fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere and

implications for biological CO2 exchange. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01817,

doi:10.1029/2005GL024213.

2) Randerson, J.T., H. Liu, M.G. Flanner, S.D. Chambers, Y. Jin, P.G. Hess, G. Pfister, M.C. Mack,

K.K. Treseder, L.R. Welp, F.S. Chapin, J.W. Harden, M.L. Goulden, E. Lyons, J.C. Neff, E.A.G.

Schuur, and C.S. Zender, 2006: The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming. Science, 314,

1130-1132.

3) Urbanski, S., C. Barford, S. Wofsy, C. Kucharik, E. Pyle, J. Budney, K. McKain, D. Fitzjarrald,

M. Czikowsky, and J.W. Munger, 2006: Factors controlling CO2 exchange on time scales from

hourly to decadal at Harvard Forest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, G02020,

doi:10.1029/2006JG000293.

4) Zhou, G., S. Liu, Z. Li, D. Zhang, X. Tang, C. Zhou, J. Yan, and J. Mo, 2006: Old-growth forests

can accumulate carbon in soils. Science, 314, 1417, doi:10.1126/science.1130168.

5) Albani, M., P.R. Moorcroft, G.C. Hurtt, and S.W. Pacala, 2006: The contributions of land-use

change, CO2 fertilization and climate variability to the carbon sink in the Eastern United States.

Global Change Biology, 12, 2370-2390. 

6) Matross, D.M., A.E. Andrews, P. Mahadevan, C. Gerbig, J.C. Lin, S.C. Wofsy, B.C. Daube, E.W.

Gottlieb, V.Y. Chow, J.T. Lee, C. Zhao, P.S. Bakwin, J.W. Munger, and D. Hollinger, 2006:

Estimating regional carbon exchange in New England and Quebec by combining atmospheric,

ground-based, and satellite data. Tellus, 58B, 344-358.

7) Pathmathevan M., S.C. Wofsy, D.M. Matross, X. Xiao, J.C. Lin, C. Gerbig, J.W. Munger, V.Y.

Chow, and E. Gottlieb, 2007: A satellite-based biosphere parameterization for net ecosystem CO2

exchange: Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). Global Biogeochemical Cycles

(in press).

8) Huete, A.R., K. Didan, Y.E. Shimabukuro, P. Ratana, S.R. Saleska, L.R. Hutyra, W. Yang, R.R.

Nemani, and R. Myneni, 2006: Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season.

Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L06405, doi:10.1029/2005GL025583.

9) McCarthy, J.F., J. Ilavsky, L.M. Mayer, J. J. Dastrow, E. Perfect, and J. Zhuang, 2007: Protection

of organic carbon in soil microaggregates occurs via restructuring of aggregate porosity and filling

of pores with accumulating organic matter. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta (in press). 

10) Sabine, C.L. and N. Gruber, 2006: Introduction to special section on North Pacific Carbon Cycle

Variability and Climate Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, C07S01,

doi:10.1029/2006JC003532.

11) Jespersen, J.L. and L.J. Osher, 2007: Carbon storage in the soils of a mesotidal Gulf of Maine

estuary. Soil Science Society of America Journal (in press).

12) Osher, L.J. and C.T. Flannagan, 2007: Soil/landscape relationships in a mesotidal Maine estuary.

Soil Science Society of America Journal (in press).

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
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13) Bates, N.R., S.B. Moran, D.A. Hansell, and J.T. Mathis, 2006: An increasing CO2 sink in the

Arctic Ocean due to sea-ice loss. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L23609,

doi:10.1029/2006GL027028.

14) Striegl, R.G., G.R. Aiken, M.M. Dornblaser, P.A. Raymond, and K.P. Wickland, 2005: A

decrease in discharge-normalized DOC export by the Yukon River during summer through

autumn. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L21413, doi:10.1029/2005GL024413.

15) Striegl, R.G., M.M. Dornblaser, G.R. Aiken, K.P. Wickland, and P.A. Raymond, 2006: Carbon

export and cycling by the Yukon, Tanana, and Porcupine Rivers, Alaska, 2001-2005. Water Resources

Research, 43, doi:10.1029/2006WR005201.

16) Wickland, K.P., R.G. Striegl, J.C. Neff, and T. Sachs, 2006: Effects of permafrost melting on

CO2 and CH4 exchange of a poorly drained black spruce lowland. Journal of Geophysical Research,

111, G02011, doi:10.1029/2005JG000099.

17) Harden, J.W., K.L. Manies, J.C. Neff, and M.R. Turetsky, 2006: Effects of wildfire and

permafrost on soil organic matter and soil climate in interior Alaska. Global Change Biology, 12,

1-13, doi:10.1111 /j.1365-2486.2006.01255.x.

18) Carrasco, J.J., J.C. Neff, and J.W. Harden, 2006: Modeling physical and biogeochemical controls

over carbon accumulation in a boreal forest soil. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, G02004,

doi:10.1029/2005JG000087.

19) CCSP, 2007: The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. A Report

by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

[Dilling, L. and A. King (eds.)]. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO,

USA, 260 pp.

20) Potter, C., S. Klooster, S. Hiatt, M. Fladeland, V. Genoveses, and P. Gross, 2007: Satellite-derived

estimates of potential carbon sequestration through afforestation of agricultural lands in the

United States. Climatic Change, 80, 323-336, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9109-3.

21) Asner, G.P., E.N. Broadbent, P.J.C. Oliveira, M. Keller, D.E. Knapp, and J.N.M. Silva, 2006:

Condition and fate of logged forests in the Brazilian Amazon. Proceedings of the National Academy of

Sciences, 103, 12947-12950. 

22) Birdsey, R.A, 2006: Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector.

Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1518-1524. 

23) Smith, J., E.L.S. Heath, K.E. Skog, and R.A. Birdsey, 2006: Methods for Calculating Forest Ecosystem

and Harvested Carbon with Standard Estimates for Forest Types of the United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE343. USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Newtown Square, PA, 216 pp. 

24) Reporting guidelines are available at the Energy Information Administration web site:

<eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/aboutcurrent.html>.

25) Hofmann, D.J., J.H. Butler, T.J. Conway, E.J. Dlugokencky, J.W. Elkins, K.A. Masarie, S.A.

Montzka, R.C. Schnell, and P. Tans, 2006: Tracking climate forcing: The Annual Greenhouse Gas

Index. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 87(46), 509-511.

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
6 Ecosystems

The terrestrial and marine ecosystems that make up the biosphere provide critical

goods and services to humanity. These include food, fiber, fuel, genetic resources,

pharmaceuticals, cycling and purification of water and air, regulation of weather and

climate, and natural beauty. Recent and ongoing global environmental changes—

including climatic change, changes in atmospheric composition, land-use change,

habitat fragmentation, pollution, and spread of invasive species—are affecting the

structure and functioning of some ecosystems, and therefore the goods and services

that they provide. In turn, many ecological effects of global environmental change

have the potential for feedbacks (either positive or negative) to climatic and other

environmental changes. Furthermore, because many global environmental changes are

expected to increase in magnitude in the coming decades, the potential exists for more

significant effects on ecosystems and their goods and services. Reducing scientific

uncertainties about the potential effects of global change on ecosystems, as well as the

feedbacks from ecosystems to global change processes, remains a CCSP priority.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Strategic Research Questions

8.1 What are the most important feedbacks between

ecological systems and global change (especially

climate), and what are their quantitative relationships?

8.2 What are the potential consequences of global change

for ecological systems?

8.3. What are the options for sustaining and improving

ecological systems and related goods and services,

given projected global changes?

See Chapter 8 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
In FY 2008, the CCSP Ecosystems Interagency Working Group (EIWG) will continue

with its planning, implementation, and analysis of research programs to vigorously

accomplish the CCSP Strategic Plan goals related to ecosystem research. One focus will

be increased efforts to provide the scientific basis for improved ecological forecasts of

the effects of climatic change on the structure and functioning of terrestrial and marine

ecosystems, including the many goods and services that these ecosystems provide. The

EIWG will continue its FY 2007 focus on the interplay between changing climate and

the productivity and biodiversity of ecosystems, with an emphasis on improving

understanding of ecological processes to accelerate model development and analysis.

These activities will include the funding of two topics of particular urgency: (1) the

vulnerability of coastal ecosystems, both terrestrial and aquatic, to climate-related

changes, including sea-level rise, increased sedimentation and runoff, increased storm

frequency or intensity, saltwater intrusion, and oceanic warming; and (2) warminginduced changes in high-latitude and high-elevation ecosystems, including changes in

species composition, alterations in the timing of water availability, and migration of

the tree line. These topics require additional research on underlying ecological

processes and responses and the development of models linking geophysical and

ecological phenomena. Strategies for implementation include new in situ experimental

research projects; observations of ecosystems at local, regional, and global scales;

synthesis and analysis of diverse ecological data sets, including those from manipulative

experiments; and ecological model development and evaluation.

Efforts of the EIWG contribute to all five CCSP goals, with an emphasis on Goal 4 (to

“understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and related global changes”). EIWG activities directly

address questions 8.1, 8.2, and 8.3 from the CCSP Strategic Plan. Synergies and

interactions exist with other CCSP research elements, including, but not limited to,

the Climate Variability and Change, Global Water Cycle, Global Carbon Cycle, and

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change research elements.

The agencies participating in the EIWG work collaboratively to plan and execute

research described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. Many of the research accomplishments

and plans described in this chapter are the

outcome of joint efforts among multiple agencies.

A number of these activities also involve

collaborations between the agencies and nonFederal partners and cooperators. The EIWG

actively engages the larger scientific research

community to obtain input to, and feedback on,

its evolving research plans.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The following are selected highlights of recent ecosystems research supported by

CCSP-participating agencies.

Quantifying Potential Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climatic Change.1 Historical evidence

shows that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations increase during periods of

warming, implying a positive feedback from ecosystems to future climatic change. The

feedbacks for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were quantified by combining

the mathematics of feedback with empirical ice core information and general circulation

model (GCM) climatic sensitivity. It was found that the warming of 1.5 to 4.5°C

associated with anthropogenic doubling of CO2 in GCMs is amplified to 1.6 to 6.0°C

warming. Indeed, there is growing experimental evidence that terrestrial ecosystems

will amplify warming in the next century through changes in primary production, soil

carbon storage, and CH4 emissions due to changes in the length of growing seasons,

changes in soil moisture, and reductions in permafrost. As a result, anthropogenic

emissions that cause warming will result in higher final greenhouse gas concentrations,

and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of these ecosystem

feedbacks. Because key ecological feedbacks to climatic change are unrepresented in

GCMs, and because asymmetrical uncertainty about those feedbacks favors higher

temperatures, it is likely that the future will be warmer than implied by present GCMs. 

Climate Impacts Fish Recruitment by Affecting Larval Transport.2 Scientists have developed

a tool to predict how climate and weather affect the transport of fish larvae to their

nursery areas. Fisheries biologists and physical oceanographers constructed a numerical

model to predict the larval transport of an economically important flatfish, northern

rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra), in the southeastern Bering Sea based on their vertical

position in the water column. Sustained shoreward transport during the 1980s led to

a decade of above-average recruitment, and along-shelf or offshore transport in the

1990s resulted in a decade of below-average recruitment. This new model can now be

used with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projections to investigate

the effects of changing climate on larval fish transport and recruitment due to changes

in currents and regional wind patterns.

Complex Responses of Subalpine Forests to Climatic Change.3 Changing climates in the

21st century are anticipated to significantly alter subalpine forest distributions. Studies

of medieval paleoclimates and forest distribution shifts in the high Sierra Nevada,

California, are revealing potential influences of future climate change. Tree-ring analysis

and wood anatomy of deadwood preserved above current treeline (>3,000 m) has

documented the existence of a mixed-conifer forest growing from AD 815 to 1350 on

mountain summits in the eastern Sierra where currently no forests occur (see Figure 11).

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
The Medieval forest was composed of six species, including five whose current upper

ranges are 200 to 500 m below the deadwood forest elevation in the eastern Sierra and

one species that is now native only to the west slope of the Sierra Nevada at elevations

more than 700 m below the deadwood location. Climates of the Medieval forest based

on these data were significantly warmer (+3.2°C annual minimum temperature) and

slightly drier (-24 mm annual precipitation) than present, values similar to those

estimated for 2100 in the Sierra Nevada. The significant changes evidenced by the

Medieval forest provide a case study of potential forest responses to be encountered in

the future and indicate a much higher level of complexity than has been anticipated. 

Climatic Synchronization of Periods of Prehistoric Widespread Forest Wildfires.4The ability

of climate variation to synchronize widespread forest fires across much of western

North America was recently documented for a multi-century period. During the past

400 years, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal

Oscillation (PDO) were the primary drivers of interannual to decadal variation in fire

synchrony, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) affected the strength

of ENSO and PDO effects on wildfire synchrony at multidecadal scales. During certain

phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and

sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly

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Figure 11: Pinus lambertiana

Preserved from a Medieval

Forest. Deadwood of sugar pine

preserved from a medieval forest

on Whitewing Mountain, eastern

Sierra Nevada, California. The

current range of this species is

west of the Sierra crest (in

background) and about 700-m

lower in elevation. Credit:

C. Millar, USDA / Forest Service.

Pinus lambertiana Preserved from a Medieval Forest
synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. The research is the first

to demonstrate that synchrony in forest wildfires across western North America is

directly related to surface conditions of the Atlantic Ocean. Current shifts to positive

AMO conditions imply a potential for increased wildfire synchrony during the next

few decades, in addition to that attributed to global warming. 

Invasive Species Patterns Track Those of Native Species.5 A review of patterns of species

richness (the number of species in a given area) and species density (the mean number

of species per square kilometer) for both native species and non-indigenous or invasive

species of plants, birds, and fishes in the continental United States and Hawaii shows

that the species densities of native and non-indigenous species are positively correlated

for plants, birds, and fishes. The correlations of species densities between native and

non-indigenous plants and native and non-indigenous birds are especially strong

(r = 0.86 and 0.93, respectively). Densities of non-indigenous plant and bird species

are also highly predictable with the densities of native plant species and native bird

species being by far the strongest predictive variables. These results support the

hypothesis that, at least for plant and bird species, “the rich get richer,” in that areas

with high densities of native species tend to be more susceptible to invasion by

non-indigenous species. For plant and bird taxa in the continental United States,

biodiversity itself does not appear to act as a barrier to species invasions. 

Estimates of Tropical Pacific Ocean Productivity Lowered.6Ten field studies over

the years 1994 to 2006 collected more than 140,000 in situ measurements of

the chlorophyll fluorescence characteristics of phytoplankton in the surface

mixed layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These measurements allowed the

delineation of three major ecophysiological regimes in the tropical Pacific

based on the factors constraining phytoplankton growth, hence the primary

productivity, of these regions. Iron has a key role in regulating phytoplankton

growth in both high-nitrate low-chlorophyll and oligotrophic waters near the

equator and further south, whereas nitrogen and zooplankton grazing are the

primary factors that regulate biomass production north of the equatorial

regions. Application of these findings to the interpretation of existing

chlorophyll information derived from satellites shows that productivity in the

tropical Pacific basin may be 1.2 to 2.5 GtC yr-1 lower than previous estimates

have suggested, a difference that is comparable to the global change in ocean production

that accompanied the largest El Niño to La Niña transition on record.

Coral Reef Management Guide.7 A workshop of scientists and managers, co-led by

several CCSP agencies under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, resulted

in compilation of A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. The combined research

results among state/territorial, Federal, academic, nongovernmental, and international

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
scientists concluded that warming sea surface temperatures are a key factor in mass

coral bleaching events. The Guide provides managers with strategies to support the

natural resilience of coral reefs in the face of climate change. 

Marine Pelagic Ecosystems: The West Antarctic Peninsula.8 Penguins in the West Antarctic

Peninsula are top consumers of marine resources, with diets of the most common

species, the Adelie penguins, almost exclusively represented by one prey species, the

Antarctic krill. The peninsula is experiencing some of the most rapid and significant

warming on Earth, with two primary manifestations of change: the loss of sea ice and

increased snow precipitation. One of the most striking responses is the change in

penguin community composition during the last 3 decades, as ice-dependent and

snow-intolerant Adelies have decreased while Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins have

increased during a period of unprecedented environmental conditions (see Figure 12).

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Figure 12: Population Trends for Three Penguin Species. Population trends for three penguin species in the Anvers Island vicinity,

1975 to 2006. The numbers on the graph indicate percentage change from initial sampling year for each species. Credit: H. Ducklow,

Marine Biological Laboratory; K. Baker and M. Vernet, University of California, San Diego; D.G. Martinson and S.E. Stammerjohn, LamontDoherty Earth Observatory; L.B. Quetin, R.M. Ross, and R.C. Smith, University of California, Santa Barbara; and W. Fraser, Polar Oceans

Research Group (reproduced from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B with permission from Royal Society Publishing). 

Pop o T e d o T ee Pe g Spec e

%

%

%

Adelie Breeding Population

Gentoo and Chinstrap Breeding Population

Ye

A

C

G
Nitrogen Limitation Constrains Sustainability of Ecosystem Response to CO2.9 Using

free-air CO2 enrichment technology in a prairie at the Cedar Creek Natural History

Area in Minnesota, researchers in the BioCON (a long-term grassland project studying

Biodiversity, CO2 and N interactions) experiment found that some of Earth’s plant life

will not be able to sequester carbon from rising atmospheric CO2 levels as well as

scientists once thought. Instead, soil nutrients such as nitrogen will limit plant growth

even when atmospheric CO2 levels are higher. This study is the longest of its kind and

consistent with other studies of trees and agricultural crops, providing evidence that

nitrogen limitations may be common in the future in much of the world, despite

widespread nitrogen pollution.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

CCSP will continue to gather and analyze information via experimental manipulation,

measurement, modeling, and assessment studies to enhance understanding of ecosystems

and of the processes affecting their changes. Key research plans for FY 2008 follow.

Effects of Changes in Precipitation on Southwestern Ecosystems. Climate models indicate

that precipitation and soil moisture are likely to change in the southwestern United

States during this century. To reduce scientific uncertainty about the potential effects

of such changes on the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems throughout

the region, field experiments involving in situ manipulation of precipitation and soil

moisture will be conducted in southwestern pinyon-juniper woodlands, coast sage,

grassland, chaparral, and oak-pine forest ecosystems. Measurements will elucidate

potential effects of altered precipitation on primary production processes, species

diversity, decomposition of soil organic matter and related biogeochemistry, and

aspects of ecological feedbacks to the physical climatic system.

This activity will address Questions 4.1, 5.4, 6.4, 7.5, 8.1, 8.2, and 9.2

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Improving Ecosystem Observations and Models. Current ecological, biogeochemical

cycling, and climate models require more quantitative information on the variety,

distribution, abundance, and temporal variability of terrestrial and marine groups of

organisms having important physiological and ecological functions (e.g., key players in

primary production, nitrogen fixers, invasive species). Planned activities for FY 2008

will focus on promoting abilities to detect attributes of these groups that can be

derived through the analysis of continuous, high-resolution spectra spanning the visible,

near-infrared, and shortwave infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. In

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
addition, more realistic and robust ecosystem models need to incorporate additional

major drivers of ecosystem processes, especially drivers in the human system through

the incorporation of socioeconomic information. Doing so will improve the realism of

(1) regional and global ecological models and (2) ecological component models that

link to climate, hydrological, and/or atmospheric models. 

This activity will address Questions 8.1, 8.2, and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Climate Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. Projects will be implemented

to understand the responses of the physical environment and ecosystems

to projected climate change scenarios and to develop predictions of

the ecosystem impacts of these changes. These projects will collect

observations, conduct research, and synthesize results to increase the

understanding of regional climate impacts on marine ecosystems. This

work will be conducted in conjunction with the development and

refinement of biophysical indicators and models to provide living

marine resource managers the knowledge and predictive tools necessary

to adapt to the consequences of climate change for ecosystems. 

This activity will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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1) Torn, M.S. and J. Harte, 2006: Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L10703, doi:10.1029/2005GL025540.

2) Lanksbury, J.A., J.T. Duffy-Anderson, K.L. Mier, M.S. Busby, and, P.J. Stabeno, 2007:

Distribution and transport patterns of Northern rock sole, Lepidopsetta polyxystra, larvae in the

southeastern Bering Sea. Progress in Oceanography, 72, 39-62.

3) Millar, C.I., J.C. King, R.D. Westfall, H.A. Alden, and D.L. Delany, 2006: Late Holocene forest

dynamics, volcanism, and climate change at Whitewing Mountain and San Joaquin Ridge, Mono

County, Sierra Nevada, CA, USA. Quaternary Research, 66, 273-287.

4) Kitzberger, T., P.M. Brown, E.K. Heyerdahl, T.W. Swetnam, and T.T. Veblen, 2007: Contingent

Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 543-548.

5) Stohlgren, T.J., D. Barnett, C. Flather, P. Fuller, B. Peterjohn, J. Kartesz, and L.L. Master, 2006:

Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States. Biological

Invasions, 8, 427-447.

6) Behrenfeld, M.J., K. Worthington, R.M. Sherrell, F.P. Chavez, P. Strutton, M. McPhaden, and

D.M. Shea, 2006: Controls on tropical Pacific Ocean productivity revealed through nutrient stress

diagnostics. Nature, 442, 1025-1028.

7) Marshall, P.A. and H.Z. Schuttenberg, 2006: A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. Great

Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Australia.

8) Ducklow, H.W., K. Baker, D.G. Martinson, L.B. Quetin, R.M. Ross, R.C. Smith, S.E.

Stammerjohn, M. Vernet, and W. Fraser, 2006. Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic

Peninsula. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 362, 67-94.

9) Reich, P.B., S.E. Hobbie, T. Lee, D.S. Ellsworth, J.B. West, D. Tilman, J.M.H. Knops, S. Naeem,

and J. Trost, 2006. Nitrogen limitation constrains sustainability of ecosystem response to CO2.

Nature, 440, 922-925.

ECOSYSTEMS

CHAPTER REFERENCES
7 Decision-Support Resources

Development and Related

Research on Human

Contributions and Responses

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

CCSP Decision-Support Goals

Decision-Support Goal 1: Prepare scientific syntheses and

assessments to support informed discussion of climate

variability and change and associated issues by decisionmakers,

stakeholders, the media, and the general public.

Decision-Support Goal 2: Develop resources to support adaptive

management and planning for responding to climate variability

and climate change, and transition these resources from

research to operational application.

Decision-Support Goal 3: Develop and evaluate methods

(scenario evaluations, integrated analyses, and alternative

analytical approaches) to support climate change policymaking

and demonstrate these methods with case studies.

Strategic Research Questions

9.1 What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and significance of the primary

human drivers of, and their potential impact on, global environmental

change?

9.2 What are the current and potential future impacts of global environmental

variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity

of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased

and vulnerability reduced?

9.3 How can the methods and capabilities for societal decisionmaking under

conditions of complexity and uncertainty about global environmental

variability and change be enhanced? 

9.4 What are the potential human health effects of global environmental change,

and what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental information is needed

to assess the cumulative risk to health from these effects?

See Chapter 11 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of

decision-support resources development and Chapter 9 for these specific research questions.
One of the main purposes of CCSP is to provide information for decisionmaking

through the development of decision-support resources. Decision-support resources,

systems, and activities are climate-related products or processes that directly inform

or advise stakeholders to help them make decisions. These products or processes

include analyses and assessments, interdisciplinary research, analytical methods (including

scenarios and alternative analysis methodologies), model and data product development,

forecasts, communication, and operational services. Decision-support resources and

activities include research activities based in the natural sciences and activities related

to human contributions and responses to climate variability and change, such as

demography, economics, history, anthropology, political science, and sociology.

Decision Support Goal 1: Scientific Syntheses and Assessments

The CCSP Strategic Plan defines “assessments” as “processes that involve analyzing and

evaluating the state of scientific knowledge (and the associated degree of scientific

certainty) and, in interaction with users, developing information applicable to a

particular set of issues or decisions.” Assessments are an effective means for integrating

and analyzing CCSP research results with other knowledge, and communicating useful

insights in support of a variety of applications for decision support. Assessments also

help identify knowledge gaps and thus provide valuable input to the process of focusing

research. 

A primary activity within CCSP is the development of 21 synthesis and assessment

products (SAPs) to support informed decisionmaking on climate variability and

change by a broad group of stakeholders, including policymakers, resource managers,

media, and the general public. The development of these SAPs stems from the

Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, section 106), which

directs the program to “produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting

to formulate effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects

of global change” and to undertake periodic science “assessments.” 

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112

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural

variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and changes.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.1

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences

Temperature change is a fundamental measure of climate change. This product, which was the first to be completed, addresses temperature

changes from the surface through the lower stratosphere and understanding of the causes of these changes. It assesses progress made since

the reports by the National Research Council (2000) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) and highlights differences

between the individual temperature records determined by components of the existing observational and modeling systems and documents

the potential causes of these differences. 

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.2

Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes

The Arctic and the high latitudes have warmed more rapidly than almost any other region on Earth over at least the last millennium. This

warming has been accompanied by a decrease in sea ice cover and thickness and a decrease in ocean salinity. In addition, significant changes

in the permafrost active layer are now being detected. The impacts on humans and ecosystems that are associated with these changes were

reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, which was partially funded by CCSP-participating agencies. The present synthesis and assessment

product on the Arctic and high latitudes will focus on the state of knowledge concerning past changes in the physical climate of this region

and the implications of this record of past changes for current and future change. This information is vital since high-latitude regions are

projected to continue to experience the greatest warming in the future.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 1.3

Reanalyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change

A reanalysis is a detailed, retrospective study of the state of the atmosphere using a consistent numerical model of the dynamics of the system

and based on observations for the time period of the study. This product provides an assessment of the capability and limitations of state-ofthe-art climate reanalysis to describe past and current climate conditions, and the consequent implications for scientifically interpreting the

causes of climate variations and change. The product will be in the form of a report that summarizes the present status of national and

international climate reanalysis efforts, and discusses key research findings on the strengths and limitations of current reanalysis products for

describing and analyzing the causes of climate variations and trends that have occurred during the time period of the reanalysis records

(roughly the past half-century). The report will describe how reanalysis products have been used in documenting, integrating, and advancing

our knowledge of climate system behavior, as well as in ascertaining significant remaining uncertainties in descriptions and physical

understanding of the climate system.

CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.1

Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations, and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application 

This product, which was publicly released in 2007, provides a new long-term, global reference for greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios and

an evaluation of the process by which scenarios are developed and used. SAP 2.1 consists of two parts. Part A, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas

Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations, uses computer-based scenarios to evaluate four alternative stabilization levels of greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere and the implications for energy and the economy of achieving each level. Part A includes stabilization scenarios for the six

primary anthropogenic greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur

hexafluoride—and it uses updated economic and technological data and new tools for scenario development. Although these scenarios

should not be considered definitive predictions of future events, they provide valuable insights for decisionmakers. Part B, Global Change

Scenarios: Their Development and Use, examines how scenarios have been developed and used in global climate change applications, evaluates the

effectiveness of current scenarios, and recommends ways to make future scenarios more useful. Part B of the report concludes that scenarios

can support decisionmaking by providing insights regarding key uncertainties, including future emissions and climate as well as other

environmental and economic conditions.
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CCSP Goal 2 (continued)

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.2

North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle 

This product provides a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American carbon budget (including land, atmosphere,

inland waters, and adjacent oceans) and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers, it summarizes

knowledge of carbon cycle properties and changes relevant to the contributions of, and impacts upon, the United States and the rest of the

world; and provides scientific information for U.S. decision support focused on key issues for carbon management and policy. It addresses

carbon emissions; natural reservoirs and sequestration; rates of transfer; the consequences of changes in carbon cycling; effects of purposeful

carbon management; effects of agriculture, forestry, and natural resource management; and socioeconomic drivers and consequences. The

report includes an analysis of North America’s carbon budget that documents the state of knowledge and quantifies uncertainties. 

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.3

Aerosol Properties and their Impacts on Climate

Aerosols can cause a net cooling or warming within the climate system, depending upon their physical and chemical characteristics. In addition

to these direct effects, aerosols can also have indirect effects on radiative forcing of the climate system by changing cloud properties. The first

phase of development of this product is to produce major scientific reviews of the following three topics: dependence of radiative forcing by

tropospheric aerosols on aerosol composition in the north Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions; measurement-based understanding of

aerosol radiative forcing from remote-sensing observations; and model intercomparison to quantify uncertainties associated with indirect

aerosol forcing. The second-phase product will draw upon the scientific information gathered by the development of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report and the National Research Council review, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. These

community-wide assessments of climate change (and the aerosol-climate topic inclusively) will be drawn from in writing SAP 2.3. 

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.4

Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure

Measurements of ozone-depleting gases in the atmosphere have shown that the concentrations of these gases are declining in response to the

agreements reached under the Montreal Protocol. This report will provide an update on trends in stratospheric ozone, ozone-depleting gases,

and ultraviolet radiation exposure; progress in improving model evaluations of the sensitivity of the ozone layer to changes in atmospheric

composition and climate; and relevant implications for the United States. This information is key in ensuring that international agreements to

phase out production of ozone-depleting substances are having the expected outcome—recovery of the protective ozone layer. The report

will derive most of its information from recent international assessments of stratospheric ozone, ozone-depleting substances, and climate.

CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate

and related systems may change in the future.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.1

Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations

The topics addressed by this product are the strengths and limitations of climate models at different spatial and temporal scales. Its purpose is

to provide information on the results from climate models, in ways that will allow the potential user of the information to evaluate how best it

may be applied. The product will focus on natural and human-caused factors influencing climate variability and change during the period from

1870 to 2000. It will characterize sources of uncertainty in climate models and their implications for estimating future climate change. This

product will be limited to the models and their sensitivity, feedbacks, strengths, and limitations, rather than making specific future projections.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.2

Climate Projections for Research and Assessment Based on Emissions Scenarios developed through the Climate Change Technology Program

This product will have two distinct components. The first will be to produce climate projections for research and assessment based on

greenhouse gas emission scenarios and atmospheric concentrations as reported in SAP 2.1a. The second will be to assess the future climate

impacts of short-lived gaseous and particulate species.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
114

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)

CCSP Goal 3 (continued)

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.3

Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands

The impact of climate extremes can be severe and wide-ranging. There is evidence that the economic impact of weather and climate

extremes in the United States has increased over the past several decades, but the evidence for increases in extreme weather and climate

events varies depending on the event of interest. These events may be related to temperature parameters (severe freezes, heat waves),

precipitation (wet spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts, ice and hail, snow cover and depth), or tropical and extratropical storm

frequency. Identifying recent changes and trends in such parameters will be a focus of the report, as well as identifying what can be said

about future changes. Since extreme weather and climate events on a global scale are regularly addressed in international assessments, this

product will focus on weather and climate extremes primarily across Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 3.4

Abrupt Climate Change

The paleoclimate record reveals that Earth’s climate can change rapidly and strongly between different stable states. Various scenarios portray

future abrupt climate change large enough to pose a significant challenge to society. The goal of this product is to review and synthesize our

current understanding of abrupt climate change and to identify gaps in our knowledge. The report will integrate information from the

paleoclimate record, the instrumental record, and numerical model-based studies at various spatial scales. Key identified risks, such as

changes in ocean thermohaline circulation and alteration of terrestrial hydrologic conditions (e.g., the location or amount of precipitation)

will receive special attention because the potential impacts on society are large. 

CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and related global changes.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.1

Coastal Elevation and Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise

This product will examine the vulnerability of coastal areas in the U.S. mid-Atlantic states to sea-level change. Specific questions to be

addressed include identifying which areas are low enough to be inundated by tides, how floodplains would change due to a changing climate,

which areas might be subject to erosion, and locations where wetlands will be able to migrate inland versus locations where shores will be

protected. The product will examine the implications of sea-level rise, including impacts on population and economic activity in vulnerable

areas, costs of shore protection, ecological effects, flood damages, public access to modified shore areas, cases where sea-level rise justifies

policy changes, options being considered by conservancies and governments, and lessons from the unfolding consequences of the 2005

hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.2

Thresholds of Change in Ecosystems

There is a body of ecosystems research that focuses on enhancing understanding of climate change impacts on ecosystems (and vice versa) and

developing the capability to predict potential impacts of future climate change. Increasing emphasis is being placed on climate-related thresholds

that could result in discontinuities or sudden changes in ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources. Discontinuities in responses of ecosystems

and resources are difficult to predict, and may significantly affect human societies that depend on ecosystem goods and services. Improved

understanding of such sudden changes is essential to managing ecosystems and resources in the face of climate change. This report will

synthesize the present state of scientific understanding regarding thresholds of change that trigger sudden changes in ecosystems and climatesensitive resources. The report will develop a conceptual framework for characterizing sudden changes, and synthesize peer-reviewed studies

that provide the best available evidence for defining circumstances that trigger discontinuities in response to climate change.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.3

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Water Resources

This report will address the effects of climate change on agriculture, forestry, land and water resources, and biodiversity. Air and water

temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables are fundamental regulators of biological processes. For this reason, human-induced

climate change has the potential to affect the condition, composition, structure, and function of ecosystems. Such changes may also alter the

linkages and feedbacks between ecosystems and the climate system. Additionally, ecosystems produce a wide array of goods and services valued

by humans and in many cases essential for human survival and property. Climate-related changes in ecosystems and other key resources

could have impacts on human communities and economic conditions. 
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

CCSP Goal 4 (continued)

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.4

Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources

Climate is a dominant factor influencing the distribution, abundance, structure, and function of, and services provided by, ecosystems. Many

ecosystems are thus vulnerable to future changes in climate. The goal of adaptation is to reduce these risks of adverse ecological outcomes

through management activities that increase the resilience of these systems to climate change. Resilience is defined here as the magnitude of

disturbance that can be absorbed by a system before it shifts from one stable state (or stability domain) to another and the speed of return of

a system to equilibrium after a disturbance has occurred. This report will provide a review and synthesis of information on adaptation

options for selected climate-sensitive ecosystems in order to aid in designing management strategies that facilitate adaptation, provide

examples of how to implement strategies in specific places, and identify issues and challenges associated with implementation of adaptation

options.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.5

Effects of Global Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States

This report summarizes what is currently known about potential effects of climatic change on energy production and use in the United

States. It focuses on three questions: (1) How might climatic change affect energy use in the United States, (2) how might climatic change

affect energy production and supply in the United States, and (3) how might climatic change have other effects that indirectly shape energy

production and use in the United States? Great care is being taken in answering these questions, for two reasons. One, the available

research literatures on these key questions is limited, supporting a discussion of issues but not providing definite answers. Two, as with

many other aspects of potential effects of climatic change on the United States, the effects on energy production and use depend on more

than climatic change alone; other potentially important factors include patterns of economic growth and land use, patterns of population

growth and distribution, technological change, and social and cultural trends that could shape policies and actions, individually and

institutionally. 

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.6

Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems

Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 will examine the effects of global change on human systems. This product will address Goal 4 of the

five strategic goals in the CCSP Strategic Plan to “understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and

human systems to climate and related global changes.” The impacts of climate variability, climate change, shifting patterns of land use, and

changes in population patterns are human problems, not simply problems for the natural or the physical world. This SAP will examine the

vulnerability of human health and socioeconomic systems to global environmental change across three areas of potential impacts and

adaptations: human health, human settlements, and human welfare. This product will address the questions of what, where, and when climate

variability and change will affect U.S. social systems. The challenge for this project will be to assess risks associated with health, welfare, and

settlements and to identify and develop timely adaptive strategies to address human vulnerabilities. The primary goals for adaptation to

climate change and variability focus on managing significant risks proactively when possible; establishing protocols to detect and measure

risks; and leveraging technical and institutional adaptive capacity to address new climate risks, especially as they exceed conventional adaptive

measures.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.7

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study

This product will address the potential effects of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and systems in the central

Gulf Coast of the United States. The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge base regarding the risks and sensitivities of

transportation infrastructure to climate variability and change, the significance of these risks, and the range of adaptation strategies that may

be considered to ensure a robust and reliable transportation network. Implications for all transportation modes—surface, marine, and

aviation—will be addressed. The three-phase study will focus on the Gulf Coast, and will assess the significant risks to transportation,

develop methodology to be applied in other geographic locations, identify potential strategies for adaptation, and develop decision-support

tools to assist transportation decisionmakers in incorporating climate-related trend information into transportation system planning, design,

engineering, and operational decisions.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
As of September 2007, the following synthesis and assessment products have been

released: 

1.1 Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling

Differences

2.1 A. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and

B. Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use.

Several other SAPs are expected soon. The accompanying box provides a brief

description of the scope of each product. Up-to-date status on all SAPs can be found

at <www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php>.

CCSP supports research and tool development that focus on human behavior and

socioeconomic trends. Assessments need to incorporate projections of social and

economic change (e.g., population and technological change), as well as the effects of

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CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge

to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.1

Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions

The product will focus on characterizing a subset of the observations from remote-sensing and in situ instrumentation that are of high value

for decisionmaking. The product will characterize observational capabilities that are currently or could potentially be used in decision-support

tools, catalog a subset of ongoing decision-support activities that use these capabilities, and evaluate a limited number of case studies of these

decision-support activities. The detailed evaluation of decision-support activities and demonstration projects will provide information to

agencies and organizations responsible for developing, operating, and maintaining selected decision-support processes and tools. The evaluation

will also provide information on the nature of interactions between users and producers of climate science information, approaches for

accessing science information, and assimilation of scientific information in the decisionmaking process. The product will include an online

catalog of decision-support demonstration projects with interactive links, which will be updated as additional experiments are conducted and

new approaches to incorporating and benchmarking application of observations and other global change research products evolve.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.2

Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decisionmaking

This product will address the issue of uncertainty and its relationship to science, assessment, and decisionmaking. Specifically, the product is

intended to help improve the quality and consistency of information about scientific uncertainty presented to decisionmakers and other users

of CCSP reports by identifying “best practice” options recommended in the literature on this subject; to improve communication between

scientists and users of the products by providing recommendations for addressing uncertainty; and to provide a brief overview of the literature

on approaches for communicating and considering uncertainty related to climate.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

This product will concentrate on the water-resource management sector. It will describe and evaluate current forecasts, assess how forecasts

are being used in decision settings, and evaluate decisionmakers’ level of confidence in these forecasts. The participants in the development of

this product (primarily consisting of government officials, researchers, and users) will evaluate forecasts as well as their delivery, to identify

options for improving partnerships between the research and user communities. It will inform decisionmakers about the experiences of others

who have experimented with the use of seasonal and interannual forecasts and other observational data; climatologists and social scientists

about how to advance the delivery of decision-support resources that use the most recent forecast products, methodologies, and tools; and

science managers as they plan for future investments in research related to forecasts and their role in decision support.

DESCRIPTION OF CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS (CONT.)
environmental change on communities and sectors (e.g., transportation, health,

agriculture). Decision support also requires methods and tools to undertake comparative

work across communities, regions, and sectors. 

Decision Support Goal 2: Adaptive Management and Planning Decisions

A number of efforts are underway to support adaptive management and planning

decisions (operational decisions for managing resources, societal response mechanisms,

and long-term infrastructure planning). These activities involve sectoral analyses

examining agriculture, forestry, water supply, fisheries, and human health. Drought

and variations in the frequency of temperature extremes, severe precipitation, and

runoff are key climate challenges being addressed. Progress is being made to engage

stakeholders at local and regional levels in an effort to bring information about the

impacts of climate variability and change to bear on their management and planning

decisions. Bringing climate science to decisionmakers, analyzing the impacts of climate

on their decisions, and collaborating with them to produce new knowledge and tools

are all key parts of this goal.

Decision Support Goal 3: Methods to Support Climate Policymaking

Climate is a primary or significant factor in policy considerations, such as options

for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, long-term ecosystem management, and

infrastructure planning. CCSP, in collaboration with the CCTP, is providing useful

information related to these issues. 

CCSP also supports the development of integrated

modeling frameworks that are useful for exploring

many dimensions of climate and global change.

Full integration of information on human activities,

greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions, land-use

and land-cover change, cycling of carbon and

other nutrients, climatic responses, and impacts on

people, the economy, and resources is necessary

for analysis of many important questions about the

potential economic and environmental implications

of changing greenhouse gas concentrations and

alternative technology portfolios. Answers from

integrated analysis can only reflect the existing

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state of knowledge, but it is important to develop frameworks and resources for

integration, exercise them, and learn from analysis of the results. CCSP is encouraging

innovation and development of approaches to integrated analysis.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent research and activities supported by CCSP-participating

agencies follow

The National Research Council’s Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global

Change. An important source of scientific expertise and judgment on societal issues

related to global change is the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global

Change (CHDGC) of the National Research Council (NRC). The committee was

formed in 1989, to help guide U.S. research on the interactions between human

activity and global environmental change. The CHDGC focuses on two main tasks:

developing the intellectual basis for progress in understanding human-environment

interactions, and advising on future research directions. Recently completed and

soon-to-be-completed studies include:

• Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned. Global change assessments

inform decisionmakers about the scientific underpinnings of a range of environmental

issues. With dozens of assessments conducted to date by various U.S. and

international groups, this report took the opportunity to draw on these experiences

to improve future efforts. The report, which was produced by the NRC Board on

Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and was released in February 2007, identifies

11 essential elements of effective assessments and provides recommendations on

evolving the process to better support decisionmaking.

• Public Participation in Environmental Assessment and Decisionmaking.This report

will use available research and experience and some specially commissioned studies

in order to draw conclusions and recommendations about how best to implement

broader public participation in environmental assessment and policymaking. The

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
study seeks to specify indicators of success and variables believed to influence these

indicators; identify lessons from experience concerning which approaches work

well under which conditions; state testable hypotheses that would allow verification

or refinement of the lessons drawn from currently available information; and propose

ways for government agencies to learn systematically from their own experience

and the experience of others.

• Putting People on the Map: Protecting Confidentiality with Linked Social-Spatial

Data. Precise, accurate spatial information linked to social and behavioral data is

revolutionizing social science by opening new questions for investigation and

improving understanding of human behavior in its environmental context. At the

same time, precise spatial data make it more likely that individuals can be identified,

breaching the promise of confidentiality made when the data were collected. Because

norms of science and government agencies favor open access to all scientific data,

the tension between the benefits of open access and the risks associated with

potential breach of confidentiality pose significant challenges to researchers,

research sponsors, scientific institutions, and data archivists. Putting People on the

Map, a CHDGC report released in March 2007, finds that several technical

approaches for making data available while limiting risk have potential, but none is

adequate on its own or in combination. 

New Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy.1 A new Regional Integrated

Sciences and Assessments (RISA) effort focused on Alaska was launched in September

2006. The new Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) will

synthesize data and information to quantify the effects of changes in seasonality of

weather and climate on Alaskan people and ecosystems, determine stakeholder needs

for enhanced information, conduct research to facilitate product enhancement, and

assess vulnerability and adaptive capacity of various Alaskan sectors. Transportation

will provide the initial focus for these activities. Federal partners include NOAA and

the U.S. Bureau of Land Management; other partners include nongovernmental

organizations, state agencies, tribal governments, and the private sector. 

National Integrated Drought Information System Program Office. In support of the

Western Governors Association report, Creating a Drought Early Warning System for

the 21st Century: The National Integrated Drought Information System, and the

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Authorization Bill signed in

2006, the interagency NIDIS program office has been established. The goal of NIDIS is

to create an interagency and interstate coordination program to (1) improve public

awareness of drought and attendant impacts, (2) improve the capacity of counties and

watershed organizations to reduce drought risks proactively, and (3) provide guidance

on filling information gaps including those for monitoring, forecasting, and impact

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assessments as needed. The interagency NIDIS Implementation Plan, which addresses

these three goals, was released in 2007.

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Efficiency in Central America. Over the last

decade, there has been engagement in developing criteria and tools for assessing the

potential effects of climate change and climate variability on agricultural systems,

natural ecosystems, and other systems and sectors worldwide. The present task is to

apply those tools in key regions to provide policymakers and practitioners in various

affected countries with the means to anticipate, mitigate, and/or adapt to changes in

the mean values and potential extremes of a changing climate. An exploratory study of

the effects of climate change on agricultural efficiency in the state of Costa Rica will

be undertaken. Costa Rica lies at the center of the climate-sensitive Isthmus of

Central America. One scenario product that will be developed in this research effort

involves the use of global climate models to determine how storm tracks may change

in both the Pacific and Caribbean subregions of Central America.

Environmental Public Health Tracking Network.2 CCSP scientists have been working with

the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and partners in environmental

public health to provide environmental data products that would be of benefit to the

Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN). EPHTN will establish a

national network of local, state, and Federal public health agencies to track trends in

priority non-infectious health effects. This effort is being undertaken as part of the

Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange in Atlanta (HELIX-Atlanta)

project. This effort is demonstrating a process for developing a local environmental

public health tracking (surveillance) network. In a 2006 report, it was found that

augmenting the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) observations with NASA Moderate

Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived PM2.5 (particulate matter

that is 2.5 μm or smaller in size) observations increases the temporal and spatial

resolutions of fine particulate estimates. The report also found that such augmentation

also increases the accuracy in estimating concentrations of an environmental hazard

such as PM2.5, which is absolutely critical for environmental public health tracking.

High concentrations of PM2.5 are associated with adverse health reactions (e.g.,

respiratory and cardiovascular problems). 

Representation of Expectations in Assessment Models. One source of divergence among

alternative economic models in assessments of emissions mitigation is the way the

models represent expectations of future developments—that is, whether current

decisions are based on future as well as current conditions (i.e., the model is forwardlooking) or each time period is analyzed independently (i.e., recursive dynamic). To

provide a basis for studying these differences in approach, the Massachusetts Institute

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science

and Policy of Global Change has completed the

development of a forward-looking version of its

Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA)

model, which was originally developed in a recursivedynamic form. Application of the two versions to the

same set of mitigation proposals allows a direct

comparison of methods. In terms of timing of mitigation

efforts, the two versions show similar results but the

macroeconomic effects of mitigation are smaller in the forward-looking model

because it optimizes over time, and smoothes out bumps in the consumption path.

Solving the forward-looking model is computationally demanding, and to do so

requires simplifications that reduce the model dimensions, such as the number of

regions, sectors, or time steps. The fact that the recursive and the forwardlooking versions give similar results in terms of mitigation allows for continued use

of the recursive model where a longer time horizon or greater regional detail is

required. 

New Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook.3 A new climate forecast product, the Local

3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO), was released in 2007. This product

represents years of development by climate services personnel utilizing climate

forecasting best practices from the Climate Prediction Center. This product also

leverages extensive research from the RISA program on communicating probabilistic

information to diverse decisionmakers to help them make economically, socially, and

environmentally sound decisions. L3MTO is presented in various levels of complexity

for different types of users. It incorporates copious help documentation as well as

users’ guides. Comments and feedback have been used to improve L3MTO and will

continue to be

addressed in

the future.

Plans call for

expansion of

the product

suite to include

precipitation in

the near future.

Figure 13

provides an

example of this

product.

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Projected Energy Usage in a Warmer Future.4 Gradually increasing temperatures will

create a greater demand for air conditioning and, in turn, a greater demand for energy

and greater demand for coal to fuel power plants to produce the needed energy. A

recent analysis of the effects of future projected climate change on energy usage and

costs for the period 2000 to 2025 uses a numerical economic model driven with

output from a climate model. The economic model includes data on building codes

and census figures from every county in the United States, along with expected

population changes during the time period. The coupling of a global climate model

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008

Figure 13: Three-Month

Temperature Outlook (Issued:

April 2007).This screenshot

provides an example of a local

3-month temperature outlook

(L3MTO) forecast for Phoenix,

Arizona, and vicinity.

Credit: J. Bollinger, NOAA /

National Weather Service.

Three-Month Temperature Outlook (Issued: April 2007)
with output at regional scales with state-of-the-art economic modeling to assess the

effects of future climate change on energy use makes this study noteworthy.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

New Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Effort Focused on Drought.5 Under

the auspices of the Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships

effort described in the FY 2007 edition of Our Changing Planet, a new activity will

be initiated in a region not currently covered by the RISA program. This new RISA

activity will have drought impacts research and stakeholder work as a central theme

and will provide an avenue within the region chosen for interagency work focused on

climate impacts. 

This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision-Support Objective 2.1.

Development of Modeling Tools to Support Water and Watershed Management. Climate

change presents a range of risks and opportunities to water managers. To minimize

risk and take advantage of opportunities, tools are necessary to promote adaptive and

forward-looking environmental management by decisionmakers at all levels. In 2007,

a new climate assessment capability was developed within the Better Assessment

Science Integrating Point and Non-point Sources (BASINS) watershed modeling system.

The new tool facilitates assessment of the influence of climate variability and change

on water quantity and quality and provides a capacity to evaluate adaptation strategies

that increase the resilience of water systems to changes in climate. A case study using

the new BASINS system is underway to assess the sensitivity of hydrologic and water

quality endpoints to climate change in the Monocacy River watershed, a tributary to

the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay. An online decision support capability with the

USDA ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model also is under

development. New climate change assessment capabilities within WEPP will enable

land managers to develop best management practices to lessen the impacts of climate

variability and change on sediment loading from agricultural land to streams. In

FY 2008, the need for developing similar climate assessment capabilities for models

applicable to urban drainage and design will be determined.

This activity will address Questions 9.2 and 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision-Support Objectives 1.2 and 2.1.

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Decision Assessment in the Gulf Coast and Chesapeake Bay Regions. Several pilot studies

in the Gulf Coast region and the Chesapeake Bay were initiated to test different

approaches to assessing the flow and use of climate change science information in

decisionmaking, the factors and institutions that affect its use, and the types and

characteristics of decisions most sensitive to climate change and most in need of

additional re-evaluation and research in light of projected changes. Plans are to evaluate

the results of these pilot studies to determine the applicability of a decision assessment

approach to decisions related to water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and air quality.

This activity will address Question 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision-Support Objectives 2.1 and 3.2.

Integrated Evaluation of Climate Change, Mitigation, Bioenergy, and Land Use. Biofuels

represent a potentially important source of energy that, depending on how they are

produced, could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by replacing fossil fuels.

However, greatly expanded use of biofuels would put pressure on food and forestry

prices and could lead to conversion of land and release of carbon from soils and

vegetation. At the same time, changes in climate, CO2 levels, and concentrations of

other pollutants such as ozone will affect the productivity of crops, pasture, and

forestland. The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change will

complete linkage of a multi-sector, multi-region general equilibrium model of the

world economy with a terrestrial ecosystem model that simulates biogeochemical

processes of land systems at a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid level. The linkage will allow

examination of the effects on greenhouse gas cycles of disturbances associated with the

conversion of unmanaged forest and grassland to crop, pasture, or bioenergy production.

Also, because it will be fully integrated with economic projections, the linked system

will provide the ability to evaluate the feedbacks of changing environmental conditions

on agricultural productivity, the resultant effects on the global and regional economy,

consequent impacts on land use, and the further effects of land-use change on

biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks on atmospheric composition and climate.

This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision-Support Objective 3.1.

Integrated Impacts on and Adaptation to Climate Change of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Water

Resources, and Agriculture.Terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture

represent important systems and pathways through which climate change could be

experienced. Integrated models of drivers and systems response have generally lagged

progress on the discrete research topics and associated models. In FY 2008, the

foundations will be laid for incorporating these features into an integrated model in a

way that reflects the state-of-the-art in relevant disciplinary research. Scoping meetings

will be conducted to explore the state-of-the-art, identify methods for incorporation,

and deliver a research plan. In addition, first steps will be taken to implement that

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plan, including a preliminary evaluation of climate impacts on water resources with

implications for agricultural impacts and adaptation. 

This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision-Support Objectives 2.1 and 3.1.

Scale and Timing of Climate Forcing. General circulation models, including those with

coupled oceans and integrated terrestrial carbon cycles and atmospheric chemistry

models, require time-dependent trajectories of greenhouse gases, chemically active

gases, and aerosols to be run in forecast mode. In FY 2008, researchers will build on

work reported in CCSP’s SAP 2.1a to develop time-dependent trajectories that can be

used by climate and atmospheric chemistry models.

This activity will support Decision-Support Objectives 1.2 and 3.1.

Upcoming Report from the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change.

CHDGC is expected to release Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision

Support in FY 2009. This report will elaborate a framework for organizing and

evaluating decision-support activities for CCSP, with special attention to sectors and

issues of concern to the sponsors. It will also consider needs for science in support of

decisions related to natural disasters and natural extreme events associated with climate

change, such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes. To do this, the study panel will

consider the range of relevant decisions, decisionmakers, decision contexts, spatial and

temporal frames, and decision-support objectives, and current and potential strategies

for organizing decision-support efforts to meet these objectives—taking into account

the fact that, in some sectors, the desired outcomes of decision-support activities may

not be clear in advance.

This activity will address Question 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Decision-Support Objectives 1.1 and 3.2.

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1) See <uaf.edu/accap>.

2) Rosen, R., A. Chu, J.J. Szykman, R. DeYoung, J.A. Al-Saadi, A. Kaduwela, and C. Bohnenkamp,

2006: Application of satellite data for three-dimensional monitoring of PM2.5 formation and

transport in San Joaquin Valley, California. In: Remote Sensing of Aerosol and Chemical Gases, Model

Simulation/Assimilation, and Applications to Air Quality [Chu, A., J. Szykman, and S. Kondragunta

(eds.)]. Proceedings of SPIE - International Society of Optical Engineering, 6299,

doi:10.1117/12.681649.

3) See <weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php>.

4) Hadley, S., D.J. Erickson III, J. Hernandez, C. Broniak, and T.J. Blasing, 2006: Responses of

energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17701,

doi:10.1029/2006GL026131.

5) See <climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa>.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER REFERENCES
8 Observing and Monitoring

the Climate System

Two overarching questions are identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan for “Observing

and Monitoring the Climate System” (Chapter 12) and “Data Management and

Information” (Chapter 13):

• How can we provide active stewardship for an observation system that will document

the evolving state of the climate system, allow for improved understanding of its

changes, and contribute to improved predictive capability for society?

• How can we provide seamless, platform-independent, timely, and open access to

integrated data, products, information, and tools with sufficient accuracy and

precision to address climate and associated global changes?

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

Goal 12.1: Design, develop, deploy, and integrate

observation components into a comprehensive system.

Goal 12.2: Accelerate the development and deployment of

observing and monitoring elements needed for decision

support. 

Goal 12.3: Provide stewardship of the observing system.

Goal 12.4: Integrate modeling activities with the observing

system.

Goal 12.5: Foster international cooperation to develop a

complete global observing system.

Goal 12.6: Manage the observing system with an effective

interagency structure.

Data Management and Information

Goal 13.1: Collect and manage data in multiple locations.

Goal 13.2: Enable users to discover and access data and

information via the Internet.

Goal 13.3: Develop integrated information data products for scientists and

decisionmakers.

Goal 13.4: Preserve data and information.

See Chapters 12 and 13 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these goals.

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Long-term, high-quality observations of the global environment are essential for

defining the current state of the Earth’s system, its history, and its variability. This

task requires both space- and surface-based observation systems. The term “climate

observations” can encompass a broad range of environmental observations, including:

(1) routine weather observations, which are collected consistently over a long period

of time; (2) observations collected as part of research investigations to elucidate

processes to maintain climate patterns or their variability; (3) highly precise,

continuous observations of climate system variables collected for the express purpose

of documenting long-term (decadal to centennial) change; and (4) observations of

climate proxies, collected to extend the instrumental climate record to remote

regions and back in time.

The United States contributes to the development and operation of several global

observing systems, both research and operational, that collectively provide a

comprehensive measure of climate system variability and climate change processes.

These systems are a baseline Earth-observing system and include NASA, NOAA, and

USGS Earth-observing satellites and extensive in situ observational capabilities. CCSP

also supports several ground-based measurement activities that provide the data used in

studies of the various climate processes necessary for better understanding of climate

change. U.S. observational and monitoring activities contribute significantly to several

international observing systems including the Global Climate Observing System

(GCOS) principally sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO);

the Global Ocean Observing System sponsored by the United Nations Educational,

Scientific and Cultural Organization’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

(IOC); and the Global Terrestrial Observing System sponsored by the United Nations

Food and Agriculture Organization. The latter two have climate-related elements

being developed jointly with GCOS.

The importance of ongoing climate observations for detecting unusual changes over

small time intervals has recently been emphasized for the Arctic. The Arctic region is

experiencing unprecedented large and rapid changes. For example, the area and elevation

of melting on the Greenland ice sheet have increased; glacier area, thickness, and volume

in Alaska have decreased; permafrost temperatures have risen and thawing is occurring

in many areas; Eurasian rivers’ discharge into the Arctic Ocean has increased, and sea

ice extent, thickness, and volume have decreased; and shrubs and “greenness” have

increased on the North Slope of Alaska while boreal forest “greenness” has decreased

and fires have increased due to drought. A specific subset of the GCOS observing

activities for 2007 and 2008 are the CCSP-sponsored polar climate observations made

in cooperation with the International Polar Year (IPY). IPY plans to advance polar

observations by establishing a new level of multidisciplinary observatory using the latest

technology in sensor web (i.e., a network of spatially distributed sensor platforms that

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wirelessly communicate with each other) and power-efficient design. Data from these,

and more traditional surface- and space-based observatories, will provide high-quality

records needed to detect potential future climate change. The United States will

increase its efforts on observations of the polar atmosphere, ice, and ocean, as well as

leverage its investments in polar research with international partners. 

Remotely sensed observations continue to be a cornerstone of CCSP. For example, the

Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar

and CloudSat radar instruments are providing an unprecedented examination of the

vertical structure of aerosols and clouds over the entire Earth. These data—when

combined with data from the Aqua, Aura, and Parasol satellites orbiting in formation

and called the “A-Train”— will enable systematic pursuit of key issues including the

effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation, the strength of cloud feedbacks, and

the characteristics of difficult-to-observe polar clouds. With increases in data volume

from a number of remote-sensing and in situ observing systems, a continuing challenge

for CCSP agencies will be to ensure that data management systems are able to keep

up with increases over the next several years. It is imperative that users can effectively

make use of an increasing and diverse range of data products that include in situ,

model output, and satellite data, which is expected to triple in volume by FY 2013.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of observation and monitoring activities supported by CCSPparticipating agencies follow. The principal focus of this chapter is on describing

progress in implementing the observations that contribute to the CCSP mission. As a

result, the chapter touches on some observing

systems that are crucial to CCSP but are not

included within the CCSP budget because

they primarily serve other purposes. 

Observations and Monitoring

Tropical Moored Buoy Network Extended

into the Indian Ocean. Working in close

collaboration with Indian Ocean and

Asian partners, a series of moored buoys

have been deployed in the Indian Ocean for

measurement of a comprehensive suite of

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ocean-atmosphere climate variables. This westward extension of the equatorial Pacific

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean/Triangle Trans-Ocean (TAO) array, whose long-term

data have revolutionized understanding of the evolution of El Niño, is necessary to

understand changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, which have recently

been shown to influence regional climate variability and change (including prolonged

drought in the mid-latitudes, including the United States). Since 2005, eight new TAO

buoys were installed in the Indian Ocean in collaboration with partners from India,

Indonesia, and France. Plans call for a total of 39 TAO buoys in the Indian Ocean by

2013.

Global Coverage Achieved by the Argo Profiling Array. Argo profiling floats, measuring

upper ocean temperature and salinity, have now been deployed in all oceans. The

United States operates approximately half of the global array in cooperation with 22

countries operating the other half. The floats drift at depth and periodically rise to the

sea surface, collecting data along the way, and report their observations in real-time

via satellite communications. This global data set is used together with complementary

data from satellites and other in situ systems to document ocean heat content and

global sea-level change.

Satellite Observations of Atmosphere, Land, and Oceans.The Moderate

Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument has been

operating successfully on NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra

mission for over 6 years and on the Aqua mission for over 4 years.

The MODIS instruments have provided daily global observations of

atmospheric, land, and ocean features with unprecedented detail, due

to the 250- to 1,000-m spatial resolution coupled with multi-spectral

capability in 36 carefully selected spectral bands extending from the

visible to the thermal infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Observing the atmosphere, MODIS has produced advanced, detailed

observations of the global and regional extent of aerosols from natural

and anthropogenic activity. Analysis not only produces accurate

determinations of the extent of cloudiness—including that associated

with thin, wispy cirrus—that profoundly affects Earth’s radiation

balance, but also cloud properties such as cloud phase (water or ice),

optical depth (i.e., cloud thickness), and effective droplet radius. The MODIS instruments

are also providing more detailed observations of land features such as surface

reflectance (albedo), surface temperature, snow and ice cover, and the variability of

vegetation type and vigor associated with seasonal and climatic (e.g., above and below

average moisture) variability. The capability of MODIS to classify vegetation types and

the photosynthetic activity of vegetation over the land as well as in the surface waters

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of the world’s oceans (i.e., phytoplankton) is leading to more accurate evaluation of

spatial and seasonal changes in the global net productivity of Earth’s biosphere. The

capability of MODIS to observe global processes and trends is leading to better

understanding of natural and anthropogenic effects on the Earth-atmosphere system,

and to better performance of general circulation models (GCMs). An example of the

latter is the use of atmospheric winds derived from MODIS observations over the

polar regions of the globe. These observations have been shown to improve the global

predictive skill of several GCMs, both in the polar regions that are undergoing rapid

change, and in the mid-latitudes. 

Climate Sensitivity, Cloud Feedback, and Global Albedo.1,2 Recent analyses of state-ofthe-art climate model simulations show that uncertainties in cloud feedback continue

to dominate uncertainties in climate sensitivity. These studies have also shown that

cloud feedback is linearly proportional to changes in cloud radiative forcing, and that

low cloudiness appears to dominate the cloud feedback uncertainty. The combination

of studies suggests that changes in Earth’s albedo through changing low-altitude

cloudiness are one of the most critical observations. Analysis of global albedo using

broadband satellite observations made from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy

System (CERES) instrument showed that the interannual variations in global albedo

are dominated by changes in the tropics. Examination of the year-to-year variability of

tropical and global cloud properties observed by CERES and MODIS identified the

need for a highly accurate satellite data set of 20 years or more to achieve a sufficient

signal-to-noise ratio to estimate decadal changes in cloud radiative forcing representative

of cloud feedback in the climate system. These studies have highlighted the increased

capability of simultaneous measurements of a wide range of climate variables to allow

the clarification of key relationships in major portions of the climate system.

QuikSCAT.3,4The SeaWinds instrument aboard the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT)

satellite has measured the speed and direction of wind over the surface of the oceans

since 1999. Although launched as an experimental instrument, it has been assimilated

pre-operationally into atmospheric weather prediction models (NOAA’s National

Centers for Environmental Prediction,

the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts, and others) for the

past 2 years. It is providing new insights

on air-sea exchanges. Furthermore, the

underlying radar backscatter data have

been applied to climate change research

concerning terrestrial high latitudes

through studies of ice layer formation.

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Clues to Variability in Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent.5 Polar systems are especially

sensitive to changing conditions and provide early indications of climate change.

Perennial sea ice is a primary indicator of Arctic climate change. From 1979 to 2007,

it decreased in extent by about 40%. Analysis of new satellite-derived fields of winds,

radiative forcing, and transported heat energy reveals distinct regional differences in

the relative roles of these parameters in explaining variability in the position of the

northernmost ice edge. In all six peripheral seas studied, downwelling longwave

radiation flux anomalies explain the most variability—approximately 40%—while

northward wind anomalies are important in areas north of Siberia, particularly earlier

in the melt season. Anomalies in the amount of solar energy absorbed by the surface

are negatively correlated with perennial ice retreat in all regions, suggesting that the

effect of solar flux anomalies is overwhelmed by the long-wave influence on ice edge

position. This work has taken on new urgency with the 2007 Arctic sea ice minimum

extent being the lowest in the 1978 to 2007 satellite record.

ICESat.6The Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), launched in 2003, has

made significant contributions to CCSP’s polar observations. The lidar instrument on

ICESat measures surface elevations of ice and land, vertical distributions of clouds and

aerosols, vegetation canopy heights, and other features with unprecedented accuracy

and sensitivity. The primary purpose of ICESat has been to acquire time series of ice

sheet elevation changes for determination of the present-day mass balance of the ice

sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and polar climate, and

improvement of estimates of the present and future contributions to global sea-level

rise. ICESat has achieved remarkable successes with first-of-their-kind observations: 

• The most accurate elevation maps to date of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

(centimeters per year)

• Detection of changes in the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

• Demonstrated ability to characterize detailed topographic features of ice sheets, ice

shelves, and ice streams

• Pioneering sea ice thickness mapping (distributions and means).

Solar Variability: SORCE Mission.7The Sun is the Earth’s primary

energy source and external driver of climate variability. The

Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite,

launched in 2003, is equipped with four instruments that

measure variations in solar radiation much more accurately

than previous instruments. SORCE is now making the first

contiguous observations of solar variability across the full

solar spectrum, from far ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths.

SORCE’s operational life extends across the 2006-2007 solar

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minimum, a crucial period for estimating any long-term trend, such as that indicated

by indirect measurements of past solar forcing. The mission is expected to overlap

with the Glory mission that will carry forward the total solar irradiance record after

2008. The continued measurements previously planned by the National Polar-Orbiting

Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) through the Total Solar

Irradiance Sensor (including a Total Solar Irradiance Monitor and Spectral Irradiance

Monitor) were deleted from the NPOESS program during the Nunn-McCurdy

recertification process completed in June 2006. Agencies are currently assessing the

impacts of this decision for solar irradiance monitoring.

High-Resolution Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric Temperature and Moisture.8The

Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC)

relies on radio occultation of signals from the Global Positioning System satellites.

COSMIC satellites take 2,500 vertical profile measurements every 24 hours in a nearly

uniform distribution around the globe, filling in current data gaps over vast stretches

of the oceans. The data’s high vertical resolution complements the high horizontal

resolution of other conventional weather satellite measurements. This is the first time

that the technique of radio occultation has been used on a global scale and in realtime to provide continuous monitoring of worldwide atmospheric conditions.

COSMIC builds on a series of previous research-oriented satellites, which were used

to develop the measurement technique and establish the usefulness of the data in

operational forecast systems. The remarkable stability, consistency, and accuracy of the

measurements are a new precision tool to help scientists in quantifying long-term

climate change trends. COSMIC was successfully launched on 14 April 2006, and its

constellation of six small satellites will be transmitting atmospheric data to Earth for

the next 5 or more years.

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Observing Earth’s Mass Distribution Changes from Space.9The Gravity Recovery and

Climate Experiment (GRACE) is a two-spacecraft mission, developed under a

partnership between NASA and the German Aerospace Center. After five successful

years of mission operation, significant multidisciplinary results using GRACE

observations have been reported. The unprecedented accuracy of the measurements

provides the opportunity to observe time variability in the Earth’s gravity field due to

changes in mass distribution. The month-to-month gravity variations obtained from

GRACE provide information about changes in the distribution of mass within the

Earth and at its surface. The largest time-variable gravity signals are the result of

changes in the distribution of water and snow stored on land. Analyses of these time

variable gravity fields provide global observations of changes in total water storage

(vertically integrated water content), averaged over scales of a few hundred kilometers

and greater. Usefully accurate surface water storage estimates from GRACE allow

quantitative comparisons to be made on seasonal and longer time scales. A recent

study compared GRACE surface water storage estimates to the outputs of five models.

All of the models reproduce the global annual pattern of storage amplitude and the

seasonal cycle. However, global average agreements were found to mask systematic model

biases at low latitudes. Identifying these errors in the models will allow improved

parameterization of water stores in the land models and alleviate precipitation biases.

Both processes are difficult to formulate and the satellite data will greatly aid in

improving the veracity of the models.

Surface-Based Observatories of Clouds and Radiation.10,11The primary goal of the

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program is to improve the treatment of

cloud and radiation physics in global climate models in order to improve the climate

simulation capabilities of these models. These efforts have been enhanced by the

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addition of the ARM mobile facility (AMF) to study cloud and radiation processes in

multiple climatic regimes. The AMF can be deployed to sites around the world for

durations of 6 to 18 months. Data streams produced by the AMF will be available to

the atmospheric community for use in testing and improving parameterizations in

global climate models. The AMF was deployed in Niamey, Niger from January through

December 2006 and measured radiation, cloud, and aerosol properties during the

monsoon and dry seasons. Using measurements from the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic

Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), a data set has been created that allows climate and cloud

models to simulate Arctic weather allowing for direct comparison of observations and

model simulations. 

Baseline Surface Radiation Network.The Baseline Surface Radiation Network has

acquired 15 years of surface radiation budget data at its original half-dozen sites and

has since expanded to more than 38 international sites. These observations combined

with historic records have detected interdecadal annual mean variations on the order

of about 2%, which exceeds previous expected variations that are not replicated in

climate models. Contributing effects from clouds and aerosols are suspected to be the

most likely cause of these variations. 

Data Management and Information

Selected data management and information activities supported by CCSP-participating

agencies follow.

REASoN Program.12 Forty Cooperative Agreement projects that are part of NASA’s

Earth Science Research, Education, and Applications Solutions Network (REASoN )

have completed their first year. The REASoN projects are part of NASA’s strategy to

work with its partners to improve its existing data systems, guide the development

and management of future data systems, and focus performance outcomes to further

Earth science research objectives. In order to achieve these goals, the REASoN

projects are organized to engage the science community and peer review process in

the development of higher level science products; to use these products to advance

Earth system research; to develop and demonstrate new technologies for data

management and distribution; and to contribute to interagency efforts to improve the

maintenance and accessibility of data and information systems. 

Global Change Master Directory.13The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) is an

extensive directory of descriptive and spatial information about data sets relevant to

global change research. The GCMD provides a comprehensive resource where a

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
researcher, student, or interested individual can access sources of Earth science data

and related tools and services. At present the GCMD database contains over 18,200

metadata descriptions of data sets from approximately 2,800 government agencies,

research institutions, archives, and universities worldwide; updates are made at the

rate of 900 descriptions per month. GCMD contains descriptions of data sets covering

all disciplines that produce and use data to help understand our changing planet.

Although much research is focused on climate change, the GCMD includes metadata

from disciplines including atmospheric science, oceanography, ecology, geology,

hydrology, and human dimensions of climate change. This interdisciplinary approach is

aimed at researchers exploring the interconnections and interrelations of multidisciplinary

global change variables (e.g., how climate change may affect human health). The

GCMD has made it easier for such data users to locate the information desired. The

latest version of the GCMD software was released in May 2007 as MD9.7. Software

upgrades are made in response to user needs and to capitalize on new technology. A

portal has been created in support of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems

(GEOSS). 

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

CCSP will continue to develop and implement integrated systems for observing and

monitoring global change, and the associated data management and information

systems. Selected key planned activities for FY 2008 and beyond follow.

Global Climate and Ocean Observing Systems. FY 2008 priorities for advancement of

the atmospheric and ocean observing components of GCOS include: (1) reducing the

uncertainty in the carbon inventory of the global ocean, sea-level change, and sea

surface temperature; (2) continuing support for existing in situ atmospheric networks

in developing nations; and (3) planning for surface and upper air GCOS reference

observations consistent with CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1. As such, the

global ocean observing system will make incremental advances, building out to 59%

completion. In addition to the Argo array reaching global coverage, the TAO array in

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the Pacific will begin to be refreshed with redesigned mooring technologies, and the

TAO tropical system will be expanded further in the Indian Ocean. Three new ocean

reference stations will be added to the system, for improved forecasts and modeling

validation, assessments of climate impacts on ecosystems, and monitoring for possible

rapid climate change. The tide gauge network will continue to be upgraded for realtime reporting, also contributing to the international tsunami warning system.

Continued support will be given to the activities, database development, and data

delivery systems of the international Global Sea-Level Observing System. The drifting

arrays will be augmented with salinity sensors to better capture sea surface salinity

and to provide calibration for the planned Aquarius satellite mission; and additional

carbon dioxide (CO2) sensors will be added to moored arrays and ships to analyze

seasonal variability and exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Work is

underway on developing biological sensors as part of Ocean Observing Systems.

Finally, planning activities will continue on developing a GCOS Reference Upper Air

Network (GRUAN) to aid in enhancing the quality of upper tropospheric and lower

stratospheric water vapor measurements at a subset of present GRUAN. 

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Polar Region Observations: International Polar Year. Polar climate

observations will continue to be a CCSP focus in FY 2008. As a part of

IPY, CCSP research will investigate the possible connections between

Arctic haze aerosols and the melting of polar ice in the region. The

investigation will involve multiple agencies in cooperation with scientists

and facilities from several other countries. In addition to a wide variety

of surface measurements, in situ and remote-sensing measurements will

be made from balloons and aircraft. Satellite observations will include

CALIPSO and Cloudsat, using lidar and radar instruments to provide

three-dimensional distributions of aerosols and layered clouds. Surface

field teams from many nations will be supported by a wealth of satellites

contributed for polar research by multiple space agencies. 

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5

and Questions 3.1 and 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

In Situ Observations: International Polar Year. The Arctic Observing Network (AON) is

envisioned as a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring

capabilities—from ocean buoys to satellites—that will significantly advance observations

of Arctic environmental conditions. Developed largely as a research system under the

leadership of NSF and NOAA, it is hoped that data from AON will eventually enable

the interagency U.S. government initiative—the Study of Environmental Arctic

Change—to better understand the wide-ranging series of significant and rapid changes

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
occurring in the Arctic. From April to July 2008, the United States will conduct aircraft

flights over the North Slope of Alaska to measure temperature, humidity, total particle

number, aerosol size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentration, ice nuclei

concentration, optical scattering and absorption, vertical velocity, cloud liquid water

and ice contents, cloud droplet and crystal size distributions, cloud particle shape, and

cloud extinction. These data, coupled with ground-based measurements, will be used

to evaluate model simulations of Arctic climate. The new NASA CALIPSO Lidar and

CloudSat radar are providing an unprecedented examination of the vertical structure

of aerosols and clouds over the entire Earth. These data—when combined with data

from the A-train configuration of the Aqua, Aura, and Parasol satellites orbiting in

formation—will enable systematic observation of the key climate forcing of aerosol

indirect effects, climate sensitivity of cloud feedbacks, and polar climate response of

difficult-to-observe polar clouds. The last of these capabilities will also directly

support IPY activities. Finally, a U.S. Climate Reference Network system will be

deployed at the Russian Arctic site of Tiksi at latitude 71.5°N in order to provide

long-term reference measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind, pressure, and

surface radiation in support of IPY and beyond. 

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Data Fusion. As the length of record in the database of global observations increases,

increased effort will be placed on assimilating Earth observations into GCMs, to

produce an integrated view of the climate system and to better provide this view to

users as part of decision-support and resource management systems. The value of the

data itself will benefit by increased “data fusion” in which, for example, MODIS

observations will be joined with the complementary capabilities of other Earthobserving instruments, to provide much improved, more accurate and rigorous

observations of key phenomena such as sea surface temperature, cloud characteristics,

and land surface features. Data fusion efforts will include instruments on existing EOS

missions such as Terra, Aqua, ICESat, Aura, Landsat, and SORCE, and on recently

launched missions such as CloudSat and CALIPSO and, farther in the future, Earth

System Science Pathfinder missions and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)

Mission. The fusion of space-borne observations with in situ biological and physical

observations, such as those gathered through the National Ecological Observatory

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Network and the Ocean Observing Initiative, is crucial for gaining a better understanding

of trends and associated consequences of the variability in the atmosphere-land-ocean

system. This activity is closely related to the CCSP Climate Variability and Change

research element’s priority of improving Earth system analysis capabilities. 

These activities will address Goals 13.2 and 13.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Solar Variability: Glory.14The Glory mission will continue to be developed in FY 2008,

and is planned to launch in 2009. It will carry a Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) based

on the SORCE TIM design, with the same high-precision phase-sensitive detection

capability. Glory will also carry an Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS), which will

improve ability to distinguish among aerosol types by measuring the polarization state

of reflected sunlight. Both TIM and APS will provide key measurements of the minimum

of solar cycle 24. This less-active portion of the 11-year solar cycle is especially crucial

in estimating any long-term trends in solar output—a key to understanding the 20thcentury context of global change, as the Sun is the single entirely “external” forcing of

the climate system that is unaffected by climate change itself. 

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. Motivated by the successes of the Tropical

Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and recognizing the need for a more

comprehensive global precipitation measuring program, NASA and the Japan

Aerospace Exploration Agency conceived a new Global Precipitation Measurement

(GPM) Mission. A fundamental scientific goal of the GPM Mission is to make

substantial improvements in global precipitation observations, especially in terms of

measurement accuracy,

sampling frequency, spatial

resolution, and coverage—thus

extending TRMM’s rainfall

time series. To achieve this

goal, the mission will consist of

a constellation of low-Earthorbiting satellites carrying

various passive and active

microwave measuring

instruments. The record of

precipitation has been extended

in recent years to include

oceanic as well as land areas

using satellite measurements

from TRMM. This is an example

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
of a key climate data set to be maintained and extended into the future. The GPM

Mission will be used to address important issues central to improving the predictions

of climate, weather, and hydrometeorological processes, to stimulate operational

forecasting, and to underwrite an effective public outreach and education program,

including near-real-time dissemination of televised regional and global rainfall maps. 

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Aquarius. Aquarius is a satellite mission to measure global sea surface salinity. The

average ocean salinity is about 35 parts per 1,000. The instruments that are part of

this satellite mission will measure changes in sea surface salinity over the global oceans

to a precision of 0.2 parts per 1,000 (equivalent to about 1/6 of a teaspoon of salt in

1 gallon of water). By measuring global sea surface salinity with good spatial and

temporal resolution, Aquarius will answer long-standing questions about how oceans

respond to climate change and the water cycle, including changes in freshwater input

and output to the ocean associated with precipitation, evaporation, ice melting, and

river runoff. Aquarius is a collaboration between NASA and CONAE, the Argentine

space agency, with an expected launch date in 2010.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Ocean Surface Topography Mission.The accurate, climate-quality record of sea surface

topography measurements—started in 1992 with TOPEX/POSEIDON and continued

in 2001 by the Jason satellite mission—will be extended with the Ocean Surface

Topography Mission (OSTM). These missions have provided accurate estimates of

regional sea-level change and of global sea-level rise. Ocean topography measurements

from these missions have elucidated the role of tides in ocean mixing and maintaining

deep ocean circulation. Furthermore, quantitative determination of ocean heat storage

from satellite measurements together with measurements from the global array of

temperature/salinity profiling floats known as Argo have confirmed climate model

predictions of the Earth’s energy imbalance that is primarily due to greenhouse gas

forcing. The high levels of absolute accuracy and cross calibration make these missions

uniquely suited for climate research. OSTM is a collaboration among NASA, NOAA,

the French space agency CNES, and the European meteorological agency EUMETSAT,

and has a planned 2008 launch.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Orbiting Carbon Observatory.The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a new

mission, expected to launch in 2008, that will provide the first dedicated, space-based

measurements of atmospheric CO2 (total column) with the precision, resolution, and

coverage needed to characterize carbon sources and sinks on regional scales and to

quantify their variability. Analyses of OCO data will regularly produce precise global

maps of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere that will enable more reliable projections of

future changes in the abundance and distribution of atmospheric CO2 and studies of

the effect that these changes may have on the Earth’s climate. 

These activities will address Goals 12.2 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Continuity of Climate Measurements.15,16 As new satellite instruments bring new

measurement capabilities, the challenge becomes establishing priorities for the right

mix of existing observing capabilities and new capabilities to support the goals of

CCSP. Continuity of measurement of several key climate variables are being carefully

considered including stratospheric ozone, radiative energy fluxes of the Sun and

Earth, atmospheric CO2 and methane concentrations, global surface temperature, and

global land cover (e.g., as measured by Landsat). 

The long-term record of global land cover was begun by Landsat 1 in 1972 and

continues through the collection of data from Landsats 5 and 7. Launched in 1984,

with a design life of 3 years,

Landsat 5 continues to provide

near-global coverage through a

network of international

ground station cooperators.

Landsat 7 was launched in

1999, and continues to acquire

global observations on a daily

basis although in a degraded

operating mode. The

combined assets of Landsats 5

and 7 permit repeat coverage

as frequently as every eight

days over ground-receiving

station sites. Efforts to create a

long-term record of global

land cover, started by Landsat

in the 1970s, are currently

being prepared for the

transition to a Landsat Data

Continuity Mission (LDCM)

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
being planned by NASA and USGS. LDCM is expected to have a 5-year mission life

with 10-year expendable provisions. The National Land Imaging Program Plan provides

long-term planning for a stable, operational, space-based land imaging capability. See

Figure 14 for an example of the usefulness of the Landsat data record.

Planning continues on deploying component sensors from NPOESS. A decision

was made in June 2006 to delete many of the climate related instruments from

NPOESS. These sensors included those for earth radiation budget, solar irradiance

(total and spectrally resolved), high-resolution ozone vertical profile, aerosol optical

properties, and sea surface topography. Agencies are currently assessing the impacts of

this decision and evaluating options. The NPOESS Preparatory Project is scheduled as

a bridge mission between NASA’s EOS program in 2009, and NPOESS, now scheduled

for its first launch in 2013.

The record of precipitation that has been extended in recent years to include

oceanic as well as land areas using measurements from TRMM is another example of a

key climate data set that needs to be considered as priorities are set for the future.

These examples of key climate variables are elements of the comprehensive observing

system to monitor changes in the cycles of carbon, energy, water, and related

biogeochemical processes that drive Earth’s climate. 

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Landsat and Saudi Arabian Irrigation

2 February 1986 12 February 2004

Figure 14: Landsat and

Saudi Arabian Irrigation.

Landsat images, from 1986 and

2004, reveal the effects of

center-pivot irrigation in a desert

region in Saudi Arabia known as

Wadi As-Sirhan. In the satellite

images, these irrigated fields

appear as green dots. This

region was once so barren that

it could barely support the

towns Al’Isawiyah and Tubarjal

shown in the upper left of each

image. Following the introduction

of center-pivot irrigation, the

barren desert was gradually

transformed into a greener,

food-producing landscape. The

irrigation system draws water

from an ancient underground

aquifer. Credit: USGS /

EROS Data Center.
Integrated Ocean Observing System.17The Integrated Ocean Observing System

(IOOS) is the U.S. coastal-observing component of the Global Ocean

Observing System (GOOS) and is envisioned as a coordinated national and

international network of observations, data management, and analyses

that systematically acquires and disseminates data and information on

past, present, and future states of the oceans. A coordinated IOOS

effort is being established by NOAA via a national IOOS Program

Office co-located with the <Ocean.US> consortium of offices

consisting of NASA, NSF, NOAA, and the Navy. The IOOS observing

subsystem employs both remote and in situ sensing. Remote sensing

includes satellite-, aircraft-, and land-based sensors, power sources, and

transmitters. In situ sensing includes platforms (ships, buoys, gliders,

etc.), in situ sensors, power sources, sampling devices, laboratory-based

measurements, and transmitters. 

These activities will address Goals 12.1, 12.3, and 12.6

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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143

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

1) Bony, S. and J.L. Dufresne, 2005: Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud

feedback uncertainties in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20806,

doi:10.1029/2005GL023851.

2) Soden, B.J. and I.M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere

models. Journal of Climate, 19, 3354-3360.

3) Chelton, D.B., M.G. Schlax, M.H. Freilich, and R.F. Milliff, 2004: Satellite measurements reveal

persistent small-scale features in ocean winds. Science, 303, 978-983.

4) Nghiem, S.V., K. Steffen, G. Neumann, and R. Huff, 2005: Mapping of ice layer extent and snow

accumulation in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Journal of Geophysical Research,

110, F02017, doi:10.1029/2004JF000234.

5) Parkinson, C.L. and D.J. Cavalieri, 2007: Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1979-2006.

Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans (accepted).

6) See <icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov>.

7) See <lasp.colorado.edu/sorce>.

8) See <www.cosmic.ucar.edu/about.html>.

9) Swenson, S.C. and P.C.D. Milly, 2006: Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water

storage revealed by satellite gravimetry. Water Resources Research, 42, W03201,

doi:10.1029/2005WR004628.

10) See <www.arm.gov/sites/amf.stm>.

11) Xie, S., S.A. Klein, M. Zhang, J.J. Yio, R.T. Cederwall, and R. McCoy, 2006: Developing largescale forcing data for single-column models and cloud-resolving models from the Mixed-Phase

Arctic Cloud Experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D19104,

doi:10.1029/2005JD006950.

12) A list of ongoing activities under this program is available at

<research.hq.nasa.gov/code_y/nra/current/CAN-02-OES-01/winners.html>.

13) See <globalchange.nasa.gov> or <gcmd.nasa.gov>.

14) See <glory.giss.nasa.gov>.

15) Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Wiollis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo,

S. Menon, T. Novakov, J. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N. Tausnev, 2005: Earth’s energy

imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science, 308, 1431-1435.

16) NSTC, 2007: A Plan for a U. S. National Land Imaging Program. Future of Land Imaging Interagency

Working Group, Washington, DC, 84 pp. Available at <www.ostp.gov/html/FLIIWG%20report%20Print-ready%20low-res.pdf>.

17) See <www.ocean.us>.

OBSERVING AND MONITORING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

CHAPTER REFERENCES
9 Communications

CCSP, in its vision for the program, identified communications

as one of four core approaches for achieving its five overarching

scientific goals. CCSP is committed to communicating with

interested partners in the United States and throughout the

world, and to learning from these partners on a continuing

basis. As an essential part of its mission, CCSP stresses

openness and transparency in its findings and reports.

The Communications Interagency Working Group (CIWG),

established during FY 2004, develops and executes an

implementation plan each year that focuses on disseminating

the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively, and

making CCSP science findings and products easily available to

a diverse set of audiences. Elements of the implementation

plan for calendar year 2007 include:

• Media Relations.When requested by the CCSP Director,

assist in communicating on climate science issues.

• Public Outreach. Develop materials and methods for public

outreach on issues related to climate science and the activities and products of CCSP.

• Web Sites. Develop and advance a strategy for improving,

integrating, and promoting the content of web sites operated or supported by CCSP

and its participating agencies, recognizing that the sites are essential communication

and outreach tools.

The Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO), funded and supervised by

the agencies and departments participating in CCSP, supports the program’s

communications goals, along with members of the CIWG. CCSPO assists the CIWG,

coordinates preparation of the annual Our Changing Planet report to Congress as well

as other reports, and is responsible for managing the program’s interagency web sites.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT INTERAGENCY

COMMUNICATIONS ACTIVITY

Listed below are highlights of recent communication activities coordinated at the

interagency level:

• Published and distributed (in both hardcopy and online) the FY 2007 edition of

Our Changing Planet, the program’s annual report to Congress and the President.

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• Produced and distributed Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 2.1, Scenarios of

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated

Scenario Development and Application. Release included a series of briefings and

other activities focused on communicating the report findings.

• Posted online drafts of SAP prospectuses and reports for public comment. The

prospectuses provide background information on each planned report and a

detailed roadmap used in producing it. All submitted public comments also were

posted, along with the authors’ responses.

• Posted peer review comments on draft SAP reports, along with the authors’ responses.

• Facilitated stakeholder participation in the U.S. Government review of draft

documents of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 

• Distributed hardcopies of the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group

contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

• Managed and improved CCSP web sites. Traffic to CCSP’s three main sites

increased to over 16,700 visits per day by May 2007, a 36% increase over May

2006. CCSPO also improved web services to facilitate interagency collaboration.

• Managed the Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO), mandated by

the Global Change Research Act of 1990. GCRIO includes a major web site with an

online catalog for requesting reports and CDs. Through the catalog, GCRIO

distributes an average of 700 items each month. 

• Managed the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) public web site, where

the number of visits by May 2007 was up 43% from a year prior. The CCTP

Strategic Plan is among the major recent postings. CCSPO also provides additional

support services to CCTP, including development and management of passwordprotected web sites and publications support. 

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

Listed below are some of the communications activities coordinated at the interagency

level and planned for FY 2008: 

• Post on the CCSP web site drafts of SAP reports for public review and comment.

All submitted comments will be posted along with the authors’ responses.

• Post peer review comments on draft SAP reports, along with the authors’ responses.

• Produce and distribute final SAP reports. CIWG will advise the SAP teams and

lead agencies on communications-related issues, including: dissemination to

appropriate stakeholders; briefings; press releases; and summaries for a range of

audiences across different information media.

• Prepare, publish, publicize, and disseminate the FY 2008 and FY 2009 editions of

Our Changing Planet.

• Continue to improve and expand web sites by preparing and posting new web content,

improving web site usability and accessibility, enhancing integration between agency

and interagency web sites, and expanding web services to CCSP working groups.

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10 International Research

and Cooperation

The United States—through CCSP, individual agency, and

multi-agency efforts—participates in and supports a wide

range of international cooperative activities related to global

change and climate change research. These activities include

support of key international climate change science research

programs, especially those under the aegis of the International

Council for Science (ICSU), and their regular review; support

of ongoing international assessments; support of regional

global change research networks; participation in informal

organizations that foster global change research; and support

of international efforts aimed at improving and coordinating

observations of the Earth. 

These enable U.S. scientists acting in cooperation with their

colleagues in other countries across the globe to aggregate the

critical mass of scientific and financial resources necessary to

conduct well-directed comprehensive studies of Earth system

processes and their variability and change on both regional and

global scales; to provide guidance to CCSP and its participating

agencies; to suggest balance to our national research efforts;

and, in many cases, to facilitate the exchange of scientists,

facilities, and data needed for climate change research. 

Individually, CCSP-participating agencies support international activities that correspond

with specific agency goals or missions, and/or for which they have been given the lead

for the Federal government. In the latter case, and where appropriate, CCSP also

provides a centralized structure for soliciting, communicating, coordinating, compiling,

and transmitting U.S. input to a variety to international organizations addressing

climate and global change research issues of importance to the United States. This

includes support to the Department of State regarding programs of the United

Nations specialized agencies involved in climate and global change research, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and bilateral arrangements for cooperation

in climate change science and technology.

CCSP provides appropriate U.S. shares of multilateral funding for centralized

coordination of international research programs that are critically important to

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
international cooperation. This centralized coordination of these programs allows the

international programs to collaborate with national research networks on disciplinary

and interdisciplinary scientific endeavors and allows for the coordination of important

synthesis reports. CCSP, through distributed costs, supports the activities of the

IPCC’s Working Group I Technical Support Unit and the partner programs of the

Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) including the SysTem for Analysis, Research

and Training (START). Long-term and active participation in and contributions to

regional research networks including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change

Research (IAI), the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), and the

burgeoning African cooperation in global change research fosters global change

research in developing countries, develops research-driven capacity in those countries,

and fosters research partnerships that ultimately support global goals in research into

and observations of the Earth system.

The United States, through CCSP, also actively participates in and regularly contributes

to a variety of informal activities that are dedicated to coordinating and fostering

national global change research programs. Through these informal partnerships, such

as the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA),

CCSP has an opportunity to interact informally with their counterpart national funding

agencies with lead responsibilities for funding of climate and global change research in

their countries and regions. IGFA also provides a forum through which ICSU and

international global change research programs can interact and exchange information

and views on the current state of global change research funding, future directions in

global change research, important changes in national and regional programs, and a

host of other issues.

The United States, through CCSP, also participates in a variety of programs that

promote cooperation with other countries, directly enhance research capabilities in

developing countries, and enhance climate forecasting and thereby adaptive capacity

to respond to climate change in developing countries.

Updates of key international activities and CCSP interaction with and support of these

activities follow. For more detailed information, see Chapter 15 of the Strategic Plan

for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT ACTIVITIES

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The IPCC began

release of its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in early 2007. In addition to providing

scientific expertise and leadership during the drafting and editing process, CCSP

supports the activities of the Working Group I Technical Support Unit via interagency

distributed costs. Via its coordination office, CCSP managed the U.S. author nomination

process, the Expert and Government Reviews, and the final government review of the

Summaries for Policymakers for Working Groups I and II. The Working Group I

report, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, was accepted in February

2007; the Working Group II report, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability, in April 2007; and the Working Group III report, Climate Change 2007:

Mitigation of Climate Change, in May 2007. The final Synthesis Report is scheduled

for release in November 2007.

Famine Early Warning System Network Program. USAID Famine Early Warning System

Network (FEWS NET) efforts to provide short- and long-term climate forecasting in

the developing world is helping to enhance the adaptive capacity of developing countries

to respond to climate variability and change. For instance, in August 2005, FEWS NET

released a report on Recent Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia and Equatorial Subtropical

Eastern Africa, which demonstrated how warming in the Indian Ocean and changes in

the monsoonal circulation pattern could reduce rainfall across large areas of the

Greater Horn of Africa. A new report is being prepared that extends this analysis to

other areas of the African continent. This information will better enable development

agencies and regional and local institutions to direct appropriate resources and support

toward strengthening the adaptive capacity of affected groups and the food production

systems upon which they depend. 

World Climate Research Program. In addition to its extensive core activities, the World

Climate Research Program (WCRP) in 2006 contributed significantly to the IPCC

AR4 through the WCRP-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. WCRP reported

to the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) 25 on

research gaps and needs related to the convention

with ESSP partners. WCRP also held a successful

workshop on sea-level rise and variability which

developed an interdisciplinary international

consensus on observational needs for monitoring

sea-level rise. WCRP, in cooperation with the

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

(IGBP), convened a workshop on next-generation

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Earth system models and emissions scenario requirements in preparation for the IPCC

Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and communicated them to the IPCC Chair.

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. In addition to the successful input to the

IPCC with the WCRP through the Coupled Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison

Project, IGBP published its second-phase Science Plan and Implementation Strategy

that will guide the IGBP with nine core projects through the coming years. IGBP

joined with CCSP and others to sponsor the first AfricaNess Workshop in 2005 and

continued its support of development of an African Global Change Research

Network. Currently, a science plan is under development to underpin the efforts of

this network. 

International Human Dimensions Programme. The International Human Dimensions

Programme (IHDP) is currently preparing a science plan for the period 2007 to 2015.

IHDP has also recently decided to relocate the activities of its central secretariat to

the United Nations University in Bonn to reduce costs and improve the international

linkages of its programs. Given its unique scientific community that includes social

scientists who study the science policy and science practice interface, IHDP’s increased

emphasis on decision support complements the decision-support activities of CCSP.

DIVERSITAS Programme. DIVERSITAS emphasizes aspects of biodiversity science

related to climate and global change, thus complementing CCSP’s responsibility to

monitor changes in biodiversity related to global change. In 2006, DIVERSITAS’

international profile continued to expand. The program was recognized as a

Participating Organization in the Group on Earth Observations GEO-III plenary and

asked to serve as the lead agency for the Biodiversity Societal Benefit Area; and, with

the Global Terrestrial Observing System, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility,

and GEO organized a workshop to define user needs for a global biodiversity observing

system. The program also continued to provide significant contributions to development

of an International Mechanism of Scientific Expertise on Biodiversity (IMoSEB).

DIVERSITAS continues to make progress in implementing all of its core projects

including forging critical links with other programs’ projects and activities.

Earth System Science Partnership.The Earth System Science Partnership hosted its

Second Open Science Conference on “Global Environmental Change: Regional

Challenges” in November 2006 in Beijing, People’s Republic of China. This meeting

brought together over 800 scientists from virtually all climate and global change

research disciplines. At this meeting, the Global Environmental Change and Human

Health Project and the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) were

launched. These projects, along with the Global Water System Project (GWSP), the

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Global Carbon Project (GCP), and Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

(GECAFS), are expected to contribute to significant scientific advances in the science

of global change research.

SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training Programme. START programs, given their

focus on development of research-driven capacity in developing countries for all of

the ESSP programs, directly supports U.S. goals of fostering global change research

and developing research capacity as called for in the Global Change Research Act of

1990. With its global reach and extensive on-the-ground experience working with

scientific principal investigators, local communities, governments, and young scientists,

the START program has played a critical role in advancing a variety of projects of

interest to the United States and the global scientific community. Prior to the ESSP

Open Science Conference, the START program successfully held its second START

Young Scientists Conference which brought together the talent of early career scientists

from all over the world (including many from the United States) and from many global

change disciplines to discuss their research and forge connections that will promote

international collaborative scientific cooperation and activities. START, through its

connections with development aid agencies, is uniquely positioned to forge meaningful

connections between the global change research and development communities. 

Global Earth Observation System of Systems.The United States is playing an important

role in the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), an international

framework for coordinating and sustaining Earth observations and related information.

Information from GEOSS is expected to revolutionize understanding of the Earth and

how Earth observations may benefit society. A

copy of the 10-year implementation plan

for GEOSS adopted by the United

States and nearly 60 countries in

February 2005 may be found at

<www.earthobservations.org>.

The U.S. Group on Earth

Observations (USGEO) has

drafted a strategic plan for

integrated Earth observations,

which contributes directly to

GEOSS. CCSP coordinates

USGEO’s climate and global

change-related activities. USGEO is

focusing on the following areas, many of

which are directly or indirectly related to

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
CCSP: understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate

variability and change; weather forecasting; reducing loss of life and property from

disasters; protecting and monitoring ocean resources; supporting sustainable agriculture

and combating land degradation; understanding the effect of environmental factors on

human health and well-being; developing the capacity to make ecological forecasts;

protecting and monitoring water resources; and monitoring and managing energy

resources.

Bilateral Cooperation in Climate Change Science and Technology. Since June 2001, the

United States has launched bilateral climate partnerships with 15 countries and

regional organizations that, combined with the United States, account for almost 80%

of global greenhouse gas emissions (for a more substantive discussion of the climate

change science and technology bilaterals, see <www.climatescience.gov/Library/

stratplan2003/final/ccspstratplan2003-chap15.htm#5>). Partnerships have been

established with Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Central America (Belize, Costa Rica,

El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), the European Union,

Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, the

Russian Federation, and South Africa. These bilateral initiatives seek to build on key

elements of CCSP and the Climate Change Technology Program, including research,

observations, data management and distribution, and capacity building.

Successful joint projects have been initiated in areas such as climate change science;

clean and advanced energy technologies; carbon capture, storage, and sequestration;

and policy approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The United States is also

assisting key developing countries in efforts to build the scientific and technological

capacity needed to address climate change.

Two ongoing objectives for the bilateral activities will be continued advancement

of results-oriented programs and the fostering of substantive policy dialogs within all

of the bilateral climate change partnerships. In order to broaden U.S. cooperative

efforts to advance a practical and effective global response to climate change, the

United States will expand outreach and support to the developing country community,

utilizing a regional approach where feasible.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2008

World Climate Research Program.WCRP will focus primarily on implementation of

its 2005-2015 Strategic Framework while pursuing its multi-year activities and core

projects. WCRP will also pursue a set of short-term cross-cutting activities to develop

and coordinate research of immediate relevance to end users. In 2007, WCRP will

focus on effective dialogue with UNFCCC/SBSTA, prioritizing research for the

overall UNFCCC following on the IPCC AR4 and in preparation for the AR5. WCRP

will also focus on extremes and risks, with an emphasis on drought and flood, abrupt

changes in the cryosphere, and the intensity of monsoons.

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. IGBP will focus on implementing its

new, second-phase science plan and implementation strategy, fast-track initiatives, and

its extensive collaborations with WCRP. One such example is the collaboration on

Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate between the Stratospheric Processes and their

Role in Climate (SPARC) and the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry

(IGAC) projects. IGBP will also hold its Fourth Congress—Sustainable Livelihoods in

a Changing Earth System, whose goal will be to take a strategic look at ways to make

IGBP’s activities more relevant to decisionmakers and improve participation of

scientists from developing countries.

International Human Dimensions Programme. IHDP will focus on development of its

science plan and strategic vision for its second decade. As important elements of this

new plan, IHDP plans to improve incorporation of central social science approaches

and to engage other groups including social and physical scientific communities, the

wider practice community, stakeholders, and other potential producers and users of

global environmental change science. The overall expectation is that the efforts of the

core projects and the central secretariat will expand the overall community, improve

the efforts and outputs of the program, and ultimately move toward mainstreaming of

human dimensions in Earth system science. 

DIVERSITAS. DIVERSITAS will not only continue its efforts through its core projects,

but will, together with IGBP, undertake a fast-track initiative focused on plant functional

types that are key to understanding the role of plant

diversity in mediating ecosystem function and the response

of plants to environmental change. DIVERSITAS will

continue to serve as the lead agency for the Biodiversity

task of the GEOSS and will continue to develop a draft

Global Biodiversity Observation System Concept. The

program expects to hold two side events at the next

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
Convention on Biological Diversity SBSTA related to its contributions to the

development of an IMoSEB. 

Earth System Science Partnership.The ESSP is implemented primarily through its four

cross-cutting projects focusing on water, carbon, food and health, and integrated

regional studies such as the recently launched Monsoon Asia Regional Study. GWSP is

designed around three themes: magnitudes and mechanisms, linkages and feedbacks,

and resilience and adaptation as well as cross-cutting themes. The project is currently

preparing to launch a global digital water atlas and a global study of water flows,

among other activities. GCP’s activities focus around three themes under which

numerous activities are organized: patterns and variability, processes and feedbacks,

and carbon management as well as high-level syntheses.

SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training Programme. START will implement its

project Advancing Capacity to support Climate Change Adaptation (ACCCA). START

plans to complete its Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change

(AIACC) project and to report to the Global Environment Facility on its results.

START will also assist in the implementation of MAIRS, whose project office is located

at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing.

US-Japan Liaison Group on Geosciences and Environment.The United States, with

Japan, plans to develop the 12th US-Japan Workshop on Geosciences and

Environment in FY 2008; to review the wide range of ongoing cooperative projects;

and to consider and approve appropriate new cooperative projects on mutually agreed

topics in the geosciences and environment with a special focus on climate and global

change. 

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Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research. CCSP, through its Interagency

Working Group (IWG) on International Research and Cooperation, and with funding

from the National Science Foundation, continued its support for the Asia-Pacific

Network for Global Change Research (APN) for which Japan has the lead funding

responsibility. APN approved nine new projects and continuing projects for funding in

2006/2007. APN also approved three comprehensive research projects and ten new

capacity-building projects under the APN Scientific Capacity Building/Enhancement

for Sustainable Development in Developing Countries (CAPaBLE) Programme,

including one on the Research Needs on the Ecology of Global Change in Island

Landscapes of the Republic of Palau.

APN launched its 2007/2008 call for proposals under its regular program and its

CAPaBLE program with the CCSP IWG on International Research and Cooperation

participating in the review process through the U.S. National Points-of-Contact.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2008
APPENDIX A

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE

PROGRAM PARTICIPATING

AGENCIES
156

Appendix A

APPENDIX A

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

PARTICIPATING AGENCIES

The following pages present information about the contributions to the CCSP of each

of the program’s participating agencies:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Department of Commerce (DOC)

• Department of Defense (DOD)

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior (DOI)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

Principal Areas of Focus, Program Highlights for FY 2008, and Related Research are

summarized for each agency.
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service (CSREES)

Economic Research Service (ERS)

Forest Service (FS)

Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

Principal Areas of Focus

USDA conducts and sponsors a broad range of research that supports the CCSP. USDA research focuses

on questions that are relevant to decisionmakers at the Federal, state, and local levels. Areas of emphasis

include evaluating risks to natural resources related to climate and other environmental change,

estimating the role of forestry and agricultural activities in greenhouse gas emissions and carbon

sequestration, and developing practical management strategies and approaches to manage emissions and

adapt to changes. USDA’s research program seeks to determine the significance of terrestrial systems

in the global carbon cycle; promotes the capture and use of methane emitted from livestock waste

facilities for on-farm power generation; assesses the potential of bioenergy as a substitute for fossil

fuels; identifies agricultural and forestry activities that can help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations

and increase carbon sequestration; quantifies the risks and benefits arising from environmental changes

to agricultural lands and forests; and developes management practices that can adapt to the effects of

global change, including potential beneficial and adverse effects. USDA is the lead agency responsible

for preparing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Report 4.3, The Effects of Climate Change on

Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, andWater Resources. USDA intends to complete the production of this

report by December 2007.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

ARS’s research on global change continues to focus on the carbon cycle and carbon storage, trace gas

emissions and sinks, impacts of change on agricultural systems, and feedbacks among agricultural

systems, weather systems, and the water cycle. During FY 2008, ARS will begin formulating its next

5-year national plan for global change research via a stakeholder-scientist workshop, creation of a

national program action plan, and development of individual research projects.The research will

continue the approach of building a scientific knowledge base as foundation for the development of

decision-support technologies.The emphasis of ARS global change research is on enabling producers,

land managers, and strategic decisionmakers to successfully mitigate the contributions of agricultural

systems to climate change and adapt agricultural systems to climate change.The Greenhouse gas

Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network (GRACEnet)—a project being

conducted at 30 locations across the United States—will continue measuring greenhouse gas emissions

from different tillage and cropping systems, and formulating guidelines for agricultural greenhouse gas

emission control and carbon sequestration.The impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on

agroecosystems, such as increased pressure from weeds and invasive species, will continue as a research

component. Responses of the hydrologic cycle to climate change that may affect soil water availability

for agriculture and other water supplies, such as drought, will be investigated. Development of
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Appendix A

environmentally friendly and economically feasible alternatives to the use of stratospheric ozonedepleting methyl bromide as a treatment to control pests will continue. ARS will participate in

intragency and interagency working groups to ensure relevant and significant contributions to the

understanding, response to, and mitigation of global change and its impact on production of food, fiber

and bioenergy, and natural resources.

CSREES continues to support the USDA Ultraviolet-B Monitoring and Research Network Program.

This program provides information on the geographical distribution and temporal trends of UV-B

radiation in the United States.This information is critical to the assessment of potential impacts of

increasing ultraviolet radiation levels on agricultural crops and forests.The program consists of both a

research and climatological network.The research network provides state-of-the-art, high-resolution

spectroradiometers to six sites, with cross-disciplinary use of the data.The climatological network uses

less sophisticated instrumentation and will eventually total between 30 to 40 monitoring stations. Sites

included in the research network enhance opportunity for collaborative research, and provide calibration

benchmarks for the USDA climatological network as well as other CCSP agency ultraviolet radiation

research efforts. CSREES continues to support global change research through the National Research

Initiative (NRI) Competitive Grants Program and formula-funded programs. NRI includes programs for

carbon and nutrient cycles, air and water quality, land-use and -cover change, ecosystems, agricultural

waste management, and invasive species research spanning forest, rangeland, and agricultural ecosystems.

Formula funds received through the Hatch and McIntire-Stennis Acts fund climate-related research at

the land-grant universities and colleges and at multi-state institutions and state agricultural research

experiment stations. CSREES is using the CCSP Strategic Plan in formulating priorities under the NRI

program and in shaping specific grant announcements for research, education, and extension projects.

Forest Service research is concentrated on three areas. First, mitigation research aims to increase the

fossil-fuel carbon removed from the atmosphere by forests and by offsets to fossil fuels provided by

forest products. Second, adaptation research aims to reduce emissions of forest carbon from major

disturbances by developing and evaluating methods to increase ecosystem resilience to current and

future climate stresses on forests and rangelands, also thereby maintaining ecosystem health and services

(e.g., timber, water supplies, biodiversity).Third, creation of decision-support systems—including

monitoring, reporting, and synthesis of information—supports land managers and policymakers in

adopting these new research results for optimum management of forests and rangelands under a changing

environment.Within these three areas, Forest Service research works at (i) expanding understanding of

the global carbon cycle in forest and rangeland ecosystems, and the consequences and feedback from

the management and use of these ecosystems as they interact with the atmosphere; (ii) improving

accuracy and ease of analyses of U.S. forest carbon inventory, and other monitoring and analysis systems

for carbon dioxide; (iii) enhancing understanding of climate change impacts on forest health, major

disturbance regimes, and ecosystem services; (iv) integrating observation and monitoring networks

with process studies to better understand, forecast, and manage relationships between forest and

rangelands and climate; (v) accelerating the development of management technologies to increase

carbon sequestration, provide fossil-fuel offsets, enhance forest productivity, and maintain environmental

quality; and (vi) providing integrated prediction models of forest dynamics under expected future

changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry.
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Related Research

USDA remains active in the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) and related research efforts.

The Forest Service, NRCS, ARS, CSREES, and the Rural Development mission area support improved

measurement and accounting of greenhouse gases from agriculture and forestry systems, as well as

energy initiatives and renewable energy systems such as biofuels and biomass-related research and

development. NRCS and the Forest Service are cooperating in development of web-based assessment

tools for agricultural producers to account for benefits accruing on carbon fluxes and greenhouse gas

emission from conservation practices. In addition, NRCS and the Forest Service are developing new

measurement technologies, analytical techniques, and information management systems related to spatial

carbon distributions. USDA also is filling gaps in ecosystem information by continuing to collect data

on land use, resource conditions, and climate through the National Resources Inventory, the Forest

Inventory and Analysis Program, the Soil Climate Analysis Network, and the Snowpack Telemetry

system.These networks provide critical data needs on the status and condition of land use in the United

States in support of CCSP research.
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Appendix A

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Principal Areas of Focus

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Institute of Standards

and Technology (NIST) comprise the Department of Commerce contribution to the CCSP.

NOAA’s climate mission is: “To understand and describe climate variability and change to enhance

society’s ability to plan and respond.”This is an end-to-end endeavor focused on providing

decisionmakers a predictive understanding of the global climate system and to “translate” data so the

public can incorporate the information and products into their decisions.These outcomes are achieved

through implementation of a global observing system, focused research to understand key climate

processes, improved modeling capabilities, and the development and delivery of climate information

services. Specific objectives follow:

• Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis,

and data stewardship

• Reduce uncertainty in the information on atmospheric composition and feedbacks that contribute

to changes in Earth’s climate

• Provide climate forecasts for multiple time scales to enable regional and national managers to better

plan for the impacts of climate variability, and climate assessments and projections to support policy

decisions with objective and accurate climate change information

• Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems

and people

• Provide information and tools to support decisionmakers in improving management of risks to the

U.S. economy in sectors and areas that are sensitive to impacts from weather and climate.

NOAA relies on its Federal, academic, private, and international partners to achieve its objectives.

These objectives are implemented through five distinct, yet integrated, programs: Climate

Observation and Analysis, Climate Forcing, Climate Predictions and Projections, Climate and

Ecosystems, and Regional Decision Support.

NIST provides measurements and standards that support accurate and reliable climate observations.

NIST also performs calibrations and special tests of a wide range of instruments and techniques for

accurate measurements. In FY 2008, NIST is included as a discrete element of the CCSP cross-cut for

the first time, to provide specific measurements and standards of direct relevance to the program.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Observations and Analysis

The objective of the Climate Observations and Analysis (COA) Program is to describe and understand

the state of the climate system through integrated observations, data management, and analysis.The

COA Program is organized under three capabilities: Observations (atmosphere and oceans, including

the Arctic), Data Management, and Analysis of the Climate System.These capabilities taken together
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increase the value and utility of observations, improve the performance of models, and reduce the

uncertainty of predictions. A major objective of the COA Program is to contribute to the national and

global objectives outlined in the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program, as well as

NOAA’s Strategic Plan, the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS),

and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 10-Year Implementation Plan.

Activities in FY 2008 will:

• Construct high-quality reanalysis of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system from the start of the

satellite era (late 1970s) through 2007.

• Begin activities under the project Explaining Climate to Improve Predictions (ECIP) to provide

global climate analyses required to describe major features of 20th century climate and the capacity

to address the causes of observed regional climate variations.

• Complete the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) that provides benchmark quality

measurements used to monitor and evaluate long-term changes in temperature and precipitation

over the United States.

• Improve the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

– Begin the installation a full suite of soil (moisture and temperature) measurements at all 114

USCRN stations.

– Establish the U.S. Drought Portal (USDP) developed in conjunction with Federal partners

(USGS, NASA, and USDA) and non-Federal partners (Drought Mitigation Center and the Earth

Systems Integrated Enterprise).

• Enhance the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

– Sustain and continue progress toward completing the U.S. contribution to the international GOOS.

– Complete the Argo Profiling Float Array and place additional emphasis on increasing the number

of tide gage stations and ocean carbon observations, important for reduction in uncertainty of

ocean sea level and the ocean carbon budget.

• Begin planning work towards the establishment of a Global Climate Observing System Reference

Upper Air Network (GRUAN) to aid in enhanced climate quality upper air data including improved

upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric water vapor measurements.

Climate Forcing

The objective of the Climate Forcing Program is to better quantify the information on atmospheric

composition and feedbacks that contribute to changes in Earth’s climate. Specifically, the program seeks

to provide the understanding needed to link “emissions” to the “radiative forcing of climate change” for

science-based decision support.The Climate Forcing Program is providing research (i) to understand

atmospheric and oceanic processes, both natural and human-related, that affect carbon dioxide trends;

(ii) to quantify the climate roles of the radiatively important trace atmospheric species such as fineparticle (aerosols), ozone, and chemically active greenhouse gases; and (iii) to understand and assess

stratospheric ozone depletion. Research may be directly applied to climate projection and to policy

decisions regarding carbon management, and provides timely and adequate information needed to

broaden the suite of non-carbon options for addressing changes in climate forcing.

Activities in FY 2008 will:

• Integrate the research efforts of the North American Carbon Program and relevant aspects of the

Ocean Carbon and Climate Change Program to better quantify and understand the carbon budget

of North America and adjacent ocean basins, including terrestrial, freshwater, oceanic, and

atmospheric sources and sinks that influence atmospheric CO2 and CH4.
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• Quantify the effects of atmospheric aerosols on radiation and clouds.

• Quantify the modification of the radiation balance by non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

• Quantify the influence of the chemistry of the lower atmosphere on both aerosols and non-CO2

greenhouse gases.

• Study the interactions between aerosols and non-CO2 gases, enhanced measurements of atmospheric

water vapor, and interactions of pollutants with climate change.

• Execute field missions to understand the transport and properties of absorbing aerosols and their

precursors to the Arctic polar region as a part of the International PolarYear (IPY) in an effort to

quantify the contribution of absorbing aerosols to the melting of Arctic ice.

• Continue to re-measure key ocean properties along cross-sections in the South Atlantic and North

Pacific that were last measured in 1989 and 1991, respectively, via the Repeat Hydrography

Program.

Predictions and Projections

The objectives of the Climate Predictions and Projections Program are to provide climate forecasts for

multiple time scales to enable regional and national managers to better plan for the impacts of climate

variability, and to provide climate assessments and projections to support policy decisions with objective

and accurate climate change information.This program provides the Nation with a seamless suite of

environmental forecasts (i.e., outlooks and projections) on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and

multidecadal time scales and on regional, national, and global spatial scales.The global environment

includes not only the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, but also

land/ocean biogeochemical processes, ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality.To achieve its

objectives, this program maintains a suite of operational climate outlooks and strives to implement the

next-generation operational climate outlooks and assessments by improving climate models, improving

forecast generation techniques, and maintaining real-time climate monitoring data sets.

Activities in FY 2008 will:

• Emphasize model experiments designed to test potential mechanisms for abrupt climate change.

• Continue paleoclimate research on patterns, causes, and impacts of past abrupt climate events.

• Produce global analysis of tropospheric weather patterns at 6-hour time resolution that extends

through the entire 20th century.

• Continue to focus on the calibration and validation of research-mode ensemble forecasting techniques

for surface and subsurface hydrological parameters, especially on longer seasonal time scales.

Climate and Ecosystems

The objective of the Climate and Ecosystems Program is to understand and predict the consequences

of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems.The program accomplishes this by coupling

observations with information from retrospective and process studies in order to detect the impacts of

climate on marine ecosystems and build an understanding of climate-ecosystem relationships.The goal

of the program is to develop climate-related forecasts of changes in fishery, coastal, and coral reef

resources, and of human and animal threats (e.g., harmful algal blooms).The forecasts provide users

and managers of ocean and coastal resources the information they require to adapt to changing climate

regimes.
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Activities in FY 2008 will:

• Collect observations, conduct research, and synthesize results to increase the understanding of

regional climate impacts on marine ecosystems.

• Initiate development of biosensors for harmful algal blooms and pathogen for eventual incorporation

in observing ssystems.

Regional Decision Support

The Regional Decision Support (RDS) Program provides information and tools to support

decisionmakers in improving management of risks to the U.S. economy—and taking advantage of

opportunities—in sectors and areas that are sensitive to impacts from weather and climate. Effective

incorporation of climate information provides decisionmakers with the data, analysis, and new knowledge

that can help them achieve the best possible outcome with regard to a varying climate.This includes the

socioeconomic effects of drought, El Niño and La Niña events, sea-level rise, and other high-impact

climate events. RDS addresses an increased demand for traditional climate services, such as data and

forecast dissemination and customer support, as well as identifying and satisfying new requirements for

decision support in sectors such as water, fire, emergency preparedness, health, transportation, energy,

coastal, urban, and ecosystem management. Demand for increased services is met through research

into decisionmaker needs and prototype product development, transition of research products into

application and operations, and operational delivery and support of climate services.

Activities in FY 2008 will:

• Produce the following CCSP synthesis and assessment products slated for publication in 2008:

− Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for

Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure (2.4)

− Climate Projections based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived Radiatively Active Trace Gases

and Future Climate Impacts of Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols (3.2)

− Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii,

Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands (3.3)

– Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and

Observational Data (5.3).

• Develop methods, models, and mechanisms for integrating climate information into analyses of the

social and economic ramifications of drought as well as the policy and decisionmaking processes in

the face of drought.

• Further development of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

National Institute of Standards and Technology

The National Institute of Standards and Technology provides measurements and standards that support

accurate and reliable climate observations. In FY 2008, NIST will address critical gaps in climate change

science that are limiting long-term climate policy decisionmaking by:

• Resolving discrepancies in satellite measurements of radiation, including solar irradiance, reflected

solar radiation, outgoing longwave radiation, and surface radiation

• Providing critical information about aerosols and atmospheric components believed to play a major

role in global climate change.
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DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Defense—while not supporting dedicated global change research—continues a

history of participation in the CCSP through sponsored research that concurrently satisfies national

security requirements and stated goals of the CCSP. All data and research results are routinely made

available to the civil science community. DOD science and technology investments are coordinated

and reviewed through the Defense Reliance process and published annually in the Defense Science and

Technology Strategy, the Basic Research Plan, the Defense Technology Area Research Plan, and the Joint

Warfighting Science and Technology Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

Satellite Sensors and Observations

DOD will fund 50% of the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

(NPOESS), as a result of the convergence of national sensing suites. NPOESS will monitor global

environmental conditions, and collect and disseminate data related to weather, atmosphere, oceans,

land, and near-space environment.The NPOESS Program is managed by the tri-agency Integrated

Program Office run by DOC, DOD, and NASA.

Global Observations and Models

The Navy is a principal member of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, incorporating the

Integrated Ocean Observing System and associated data management and communications, the Global

Ocean Observation System, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), and the

National Federation of Regional Associations (<www.ocean.us/> and <usnfra.org>).This broad

partnership of agencies collaborates in the development and demonstration of integrated ocean

observations systems, data management systems, and eddy-resolving, real-time global and basin-scale

ocean prediction systems. As part of GODAE, the Navy funds development of the Hybrid Coordinate

Ocean Model (HYCOM), a predictive model which runs efficiently in parallel computing environments

and includes sophisticated techniques for assimilation of satellite and in situ observations.The U.S.

GODAE data server (see <usgodae.org>) is also funded by the Navy.The goal of this project is to

develop and implement a comprehensive data management and distribution strategy that allows easy

and efficient access to HYCOM-based ocean prediction system outputs to coastal and regional modeling

sites, making them available to the wider oceanographic and scientific community, including climate

and ecosystem researchers, and the general public especially students in middle and high schools.This

is accomplished through a data-sharing system that uses existing open source software packages to

distribute the ocean prediction system data via the Internet.

The Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer Defense Research Initiative focuses on processes that

occur in the oceanic and atmospheric wave boundary layers (i.e., regions influenced by ocean surface

waves).This Office of Naval Research program combines observational and modeling components in all

of its investigations.These investigations will focus on processes that couple the turbulent atmospheric

and oceanic boundary layers across the interface through the exchange of momentum, mass, and heat.

The observational components include in situ investigations of ocean-atmospheric turbulence and mean
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flow from fixed towers and moorings, remote sensing of 2- and 3-D structure of the boundary layers

and ocean surface, appropriate surface wave measurements with particular emphasis on small-scale and

breaking waves, and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle and aircraft-based measurements. A significant

outcome of the program is a coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere model for hurricanes which shows

significant promise in intensity forecasts.This may lead to a better representation of these systems in

climate simulations.

Results from the Monterey Bay 2006 (MB 06) experiment are being analyzed.This program builds on

earlier work of the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network I and II programs to demonstrate the

coordination of a diverse collection of unmanned observing platforms within the context of dataassimilation models to form an effective ocean observing and undersea monitoring system. MB 06 is an

integrated experiment that involves the interaction and coordination of four related but distinct

programs: Adaptive Sampling and Prediction (ASAP), Undersea Persistent Surveillance (UPS, or

UPS/PLUSNet), Assessing the Effects of Sub-Mesoscale Ocean Parameterizations (AESOP), and

Layered Organization in the Coastal Ocean (LOCO).

Polar Regions Research

A priority in the CCSP research plan has been the polar and sub-polar regions, which have exhibited

more rapid changes than the lower latitudes.The U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering

Laboratory (CRREL) is America’s lead Federal laboratory for polar and sub-polar research.The CRREL

research program responds to the needs of the military, but much of the research also benefits the civilian

sector and is funded by non-military customers such as NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, and state governments.

DOD research has examined impacts of climate change on retreating Arctic sea ice—defining the

requirements for U.S. Coast Guard icebreaking ships for the next 30 years. Satellite data show that the

extent of Arctic sea ice has decreased by about 10%, and the sonar data collected by U.S. Navy

submarines in the Arctic between 1957 and 2000 show the average ice thickness has decreased between

33 and 42%. CRREL and the University of Alaska are developing a web-accessible Alaska Engineering

Design Information System—an analytic toolkit for engineers that presents a broad array of geospatial

terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric environmental data in a geographic information system.

The Navy, through its participation in the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, is funding

research related to climate change under the call for proposals “Coastal Effects of a Diminished-Ice

Arctic Ocean.”The funded efforts will explore ocean observing system strategies for the Alaska

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, changes in the circulation and wave dynamics of the coastal arctic, the

impact on coastal production and sediment transport, and the measurement and prediction of seasonal

changes in sea ice cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.

Related Research

Other DOD-sponsored research and supporting infrastructure also contribute to observing, understanding,

and predicting environmental processes related to global change. Associated research programs include

theoretical studies and observations of solar phenomena, monitoring and modeling of unique features

in the middle and upper atmosphere, terrestrial and marine environmental quality research, and energy

conservation measures. DOD’s continued investment in environmental infrastructure—such as the

Oceanographic Research Vessel Fleet, and the various services’ operational oceanographic and

meteorological computational centers—will continue to provide data and services useful to CCSP.
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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Principal Areas of Focus

Research supported by DOE’s Office of Science is focused on the effects of energy production and use

on the global climate system, primarily through studies of climate response to changes in greenhouse

gas and aerosol concentrations. Research covers three program areas: 1) climate change modeling,

2) climate forcing, and 3) climate change response.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

DOE will continue support of climate change research at its National Laboratories and other public and

private research institutions, including universities. In support of CCSP, the DOE Office of Science’s

Climate Change Research Program will continue to provide the data and predictive understanding that

will enable objective, scientifically rigorous assessments of the potential for, and consequences of,

human-induced climate change.

Climate Change Modeling

DOE continues to develop, improve, evaluate, and apply fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land

surface general circulation models (GCMs) that simulate climatic variability and change over decadal to

centennial time scales. As one of its contributions to the suite of synthesis and assessment products

(SAPs) being prepared by CCSP, DOE is leading the effort on SAP 3.1, Climate Models:An Assessment

of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications.

In FY 2008, DOE researchers will continue analysis of multi-model ensemble runs under various forcing

scenarios. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report model simulations from major national and international

high-end modeling centers are currently archived at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) /

Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and made accessible to the climate

research community. Under the DOE-wide Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing

(SciDAC) initiative, DOE will continue to support model development of the Community Climate

System Model (CCSM) to incorporate atmospheric chemistry and coupled biogeochemistry, in addition

to improved physics and dynamics. DOE will also continue ongoing development of high-resolution

comprehensive coupled GCMs that incorporate more accurate and verified representations of clouds

and other important climatic processes. DOE will continue support of the development of a global

cloud resolving model. New activity in the area of abrupt climate change will be initiated.

Climate Forcing

Collection and analysis of data from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud and

Radiation Test Bed (CART) sites will continue in FY 2008 to improve understanding of the radiative

transfer processes in the atmosphere and to formulate better parameterizations of these processes,

especially cloud and aerosol effects for use in climate models. DOE will also report on the results of

two major campaigns: the Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) and the 9-month

deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) in the Black Forest region of Germany.The latter is

part of a large international campaign, Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study

(COPS).The COPS region can be characterized by significant orographic precipitation with most of the
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summertime precipitation being convective.The experiment is designed to improve the prediction of

precipitation in this environment. CLASIC was designated as the core of a FY 2007 priority for the

interagency Water Cycle Interagency Working Group of the CCSP. The goal of CLASIC is to advance

understanding of how land surface processes influence cumulus convection and to produce improved

parameterizations of cumulus convection and associated parameterizations of land surface processes.

Cumulus convection is an important component in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrologic

cycle of the Southern Great Plains, particularly during the summertime growing season. In 2008, ARM

will deploy the AMF to China and will conduct two experiments that contribute to the International

PolarYear (IPY).The AMF deployment to China will study the aerosol indirect effect. Aerosols in China

have exceptionally high loading and diverse properties whose influence has been detected across the

Pacific Rim. The first IPY experiment, the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), is

designed to determine the semi-direct effect of the aerosol on the clouds in the arctic.The second IPY

experiment, Routine In Situ Cloud and Aerosol Measurements at the North Slope of Alaska, will

conduct intensive cloud and aerosol observations that can be used to develop and evaluate new model

parameterizations. In FY 2008, the ARM science program will also focus on the development of new

cloud schemes and improvement of cloud-radiation parameterization schemes. Special measurements

from the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), COPS, the aerosol study in

China, and CLASIC will give scientists ample opportunities to validate and improve radiation-cloudaerosol processes representations in climate models.

DOE’s Atmospheric Science Program (ASP) will continue research in FY 2008 to reduce uncertainties

in aerosol radiative forcing of climate.This research includes laboratory and field research on key

processes individually and as encountered in “real world” environments. Acquired data are used to

develop and test predictive parameterization schemes or models for aerosol properties and their effect

on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Field and laboratory observations are also used to interpret and

extend the results of process model simulations. Current priority atmospheric processes under study

include transformations and properties of carbonaceous aerosols, especially secondary organic aerosols,

that are poorly predicted by current atmospheric models. Also important are processes controlling new

particle formation and growth, as well as the properties that affect their activation as droplet and crystal

nuclei. During FY 2008, technical planning and preparations will be finalized for ASP participation in

a major collaborative interagency field campaign in October 2008 (VOCALS) aimed at measuring

interactions of aerosols with clouds in a region that is impacted both by pristine and polluted air masses.

One specific objective of ASP activity is to test new process models of drizzle formation that show

promise for inclusion into global climate models. Analysis of data from prior field studies will continue,

principally from the FY 2006 campaign conducted in and around Mexico City to examine the properties

and processes of aerosols emanating from a large metropolitan area, and from the FY 2007 CHAPS

campaign, that examined interactions of aerosols with fair-weather cumulus clouds.

DOE’s carbon cycle research will continue to improve understanding of the role of terrestrial ecosystems

in the global carbon cycle, with attention on processes that control the rate of CO2 exchange with

ecosystems and that affect the rate of atmospheric increase and climate forcing by this greenhouse gas.

Research in FY 2008 will address the questions and elements described in Chapter 7 of the CCSP

Strategic Plan. DOE’s Terrestrial Carbon Processes (TCP) research will continue to contribute to the

North American Carbon Program (NACP) through support of experiments, observations, and modeling

of atmospheric CO2 and the terrestrial carbon cycle. As recommended by the Biological and

Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) review, research will continue to focus on the
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AmeriFlux network of observations, experiments, modeling, and syntheses.Temporal and spatial

observations of gross and net carbon dioxide fluxes, and real-time information on ecosystem carbon

states and sinks, will be made available to researchers that are investigating regional CO2 exchange,

continental-scale carbon sinks and sources, and carbon cycle-climate relationships. DOE will also support

the NACP strategy of a model-based comparison of “bottom-up” (distributed ecosystem models driven

by land surface and meteorological information) and “top-down” (inferring spatially distributed surface

fluxes from atmospheric measurements) approaches to estimating ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes for

different regions of the United States. DOE will provide information on biogeochemical, physiological

responses and terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks related to climate change as part of joint carbon cycleclimate change research to improve simulation models.

Climate Change Response

DOE will continue to design, implement, and maintain large-scale and long-term experimental field

manipulations of environmental factors affected by energy production in important North American

ecosystems.This includes support of Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experimental facilities for study

of the response of U.S. forests to elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and/or ozone.

The goal is to understand, and be able to predict, effects of environmental changes associated with

energy production on the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.The research focuses on

the physiology, growth, and reproduction of plants, animals, and microbes; nutrient and water cycling

in ecosystems; plant community dynamics; plant-insect and plant-microbe interactions; and acclimation

and adaptation of plants, animals, microbes, and whole ecosystems to environmental change. As

recommended by BERAC, DOE will begin to wind down the FACE experiments in FY 2008.

Ongoing experimental research will be continued in FY 2008, including field manipulations of

temperature, precipitation and soil moisture, carbon dioxide concentration, and/or ozone concentration

in a range of terrestrial ecosystems, including boreal forest, temperate shrublands, temperate grasslands,

temperate woodlands, and temperate deciduous and evergreen forests. New warming experiments will

be initiated in the ecotone separating the temperate and boreal forest biomes and at the alpine tree line.

Warming experiments to evaluate potential effects of climatic change on important insect populations

will also be initiated. Such experiments will provide the data and information needed to evaluate (test)

the ability of ecological models to realistically predict effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems;

such models form the basis of most assessments of potential effects of climatic change on terrestrial

ecosystems.

The DOE Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Research Program will continue to support

research on the nature and magnitude of human-earth systems interactions, providing scientific insights

into the integrated drivers of climate change and the impacts of and adaptations to those changes.With

improvements to models of global economies and the corresponding energy-driven technologioes that

emit greenhouse gases, and with similar improvements and stronger coupling to the underlying models

of the natural earth systems, the program will deliver improved science-based tools for determining

safe levels of greenhouse gas emissions and understanding of the relative efficiencies and impacts of

potential mitigation strategies. In FY 2008 and in response to a FY 2007 review of the program by

BERAC, the program will shift emphasis and take on the important and challenging task of strengthening

representations of impacts and adaptations in integrated assessment models.There is a strong interagency

dimension to this challenge and the program began in FY 2007, and will continue in FY 2008, efforts

to build multi-agency collaborations to realize this objective. In FY 2008, the program will apply new
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mathematical and computational approaches to integrated assessment in order to reveal deeper insights

into complex human-earth systems interactions and process dynamics while taking advantage of the

more detailed, underlying models of the natural systems. In FY 2008, work will continue on the two

large integrated assessment models funded by the program to improve their representation of renewable

energy derived from biological sources.The portrayal of uncertainty in emission scenarios will also be

studied to help identify methods that represent important variability with a small number of alternative

scenarios. Also in FY 2008, select scenarios will be developed and analyzed with the goal of delivering

key emissions and land-use parameters to Earth systems modelers for calibration and bounding of

emerging models and for use in climate research.

DOE will also continue support of its Global Change Education program in FY 2008, including support

of undergraduate and graduate students through the DOE Summer Undergraduate Research

Experience (SURE) and the DOE Graduate Research Environmental Fellowships (GREFs). Support

will also be continued for the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) to enable it to

respond to data and information requests from users all over the world who have a need for data on,

for example, greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations.

Related Research

DOE plays a major role in carbon sequestration research to reduce atmospheric concentrations of energyrelated greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, and their net emissions to the atmosphere.The

research builds on, but is not part of, the CCSP. It focuses on both developing the scientific information

needed to enhance the natural sequestration of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial systems,

and assessing the potential environmental consequences and ancillary benefits of that enhanced sequestration.

It also includes research to develop biotechnological approaches for sequestering carbon either before or

after it is emitted to the atmosphere. Funding for DOE’s carbon sequestration research is part of the

Climate ChangeTechnology Program (CCTP). CCTP also provides related research funding to support a

balanced and diversified portfolio of advanced technology R&D, focusing on energy-efficiency enhancements;

low greenhouse gas emission energy supply technologies; carbon capture, storage, and sequestration; and

technologies to reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases.Together, CCSP and CCTP will help lay the foundation

for future progress. Advances in the climate change sciences under CCSP can be expected to improve

understanding about climate change and its impacts. Similarly, advances in climate change technology

mitigation under CCTP can be expected to bring forth an expanded array of advanced technology options

at a lower cost that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

National Cancer Institute (NCI)

National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS)

National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Health and Human Services supports a broad portfolio of research related to

environmental health and the health effects of global change. Included in the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program is research supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that focuses on

exposure to ultraviolet (UV) and near-UV radiation.The principal objectives of the NIH institutes

supporting this research include an increased understanding of the effects of UV and near-UV radiation

exposure on target organs (e.g., eyes, skin, immune system), the molecular changes and genetic

susceptibilities that lead to these effects, and the development of strategies to prevent initiation or

promotion of disease before it is clinically defined.

In addition to UV and near-UV radiation research, HHS also supports other research related to the

health effects of global change. For example, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

(NIEHS) supports research on the health effects of 1) air pollution and temperature, 2) agricultural

chemicals, and 3) materials used in new technologies to mitigate or adapt to climate change. In

addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is engaged in a number of activities

related to climate change, such as emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Such related research

is growing in importance.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

The NIEHS program supports grants and intramural projects that investigate the effects of UV exposure

on the immune system, aging process, sensitive tissues such as the retina and skin, and methods to

reduce these harmful effects. Examples of research include projects that will characterize the DNAdamaging and mutagenic properties of UV-A radiation, a component of the solar spectrum that has

been linked to melanoma, then attempt to find a molecular link between exposure to sunlight and

melanoma.

The National Toxicology Program (NTP) funded and operated by NIEHS is carrying out a systematic

analysis of commercially available sunscreens to characterize several nanoscale metal oxides (e.g.,

titanium, zinc) currently used with regard to their dermal penetration and photocatalytic action.

Careful attention is being paid to determining critical aspects of size, surface area and chemistry,

crystallinity, and biopersistence in relation to both dermal penetration and potential for toxicity in the

presence or absence of simulated solar light.

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) is supporting a wide range of studies to characterize the etiology,

biology, immunology, and pathology of a variety of changes in the skin (morphological effects that

might precede skin cancer), including photoaging, non-melanoma skin cancers, and melanoma caused

by exposure to UV radiation. In addition, NCI is supporting studies to reduce the risk of melanoma and
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non-melanoma skin cancer through the development of clinically useful primary and secondary

prevention strategies. One study is developing, implementing, and evaluating solar protection programs

for middle school children.The interventions target school, community, recreation and beach settings,

primary care practices, and parents.The interventions are based on theories that include social influence,

psychological factors, and cognitive decisional factors in adolescence. Other studies are looking at the

role of UV light exposure in the development of second malignant neoplasms in cancer survivors.

The National Institute of Arthritis, Musculoskeletal, and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) supports basic and

clinical research on the effects of UV-A and UV-B radiation on skin. Examples of current studies

include research that examines the ability of green tea polyphenols to protect against UV-B-induced

skin cancers through the augmentation of the repair of UV-damaged DNA. Another study looks at the

effects of UV-B radiation on the stability of cell cycle regulatory proteins, yielding insight into the

mechanisms by which UV-B radiation increases the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer.There are also

studies that are testing the role of acquired homoplasmic mitochondrial (mtDNA) changes in the

process of photoaging and aberrant keratinocyte hyperplasia, novel biosynthetic pathway for secosteroids

(such as vitamin D) in the skin, as well as the expression of keratins induced whenever skin tissue is

subjected to injury, UV exposure, and other challenges. Previous studies in this area have included

research to better understand how vitamin D3 is made and processed in the skin.These chemical

reactions require ultraviolet radiation.There was also a study on the role of overexposure to UV light

in the development and exacerbation of vitiligo, a pigmentary disorder that leaves patients with

disfiguring white skin patches that increase in size over time. Another patient-oriented research project

involves the molecular mechanisms for the exaggerated response to UV-B of a polymorphism that is

strongly associated with a photosensitive form of lupus erythematosus. Research is also conducted on

the effect of UV-R on Langerhans cells, star-shaped cells in the germinative layer of the epidermis,

and on immunity in skin. Using gene array technology, scientists have identified 52 genes that are

consistently up-regulated by UV-R.

Related Research

CDC conducts public health research on a wide-range of topics that are associated with climate change

ranging from vector-borne diseases to human health effects of heat waves. CDC has established a longterm national surveillance system to monitor enzootic transmission activity and patterns across the

entire country. For West Nile virus (WNV), the agency is conducting research on the potential human

health burdens and transmission characteristics of the disease in Guatemala to see how climate change may

influence the distributions of arboviruses in the Western Hemisphere. CDC is conducting interrelated

investigations of the complex ecology of WNV to better understand its distribution in the United States.

Scientists from CDC are working with colleagues from around the world to analyze the key climatic

variables and other ecological factors that impact the transmission and distribution of other zoonotic

diseases including Chikungunya virus, Japanese encephalitis, Rift Valley Fever, and plague. Researchers

are developing mathematical models that relate changing weather conditions, among other factors, to

the risk of infectious diseases in humans, including hantavirus, lyssaviruses, and filoviruses.

CDC is also developing models to predict mortality risks from the most direct effects of climate

change—heat waves. Collaborations with university colleagues on four current projects use remote

sensing data to determine urban neighborhoods and populations most at-risk for deaths during an

extreme heat event. Research is also focusing on the knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs of the public on

health issues related to climate change to effectively craft health education messages.
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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

Principal Areas of Focus

DOI/USGS research contributes directly to CCSP strategic goals, principally through studies designed to

understand the interactions between climate, earth surface processes, ecosystems, and human activities on

time scales ranging from years to millennia. By combining the expertise of hydrologists, geologists,

biologists, geographers, and remote-sensing scientists within one organization, USGS supports truly

interdisciplinary research in the following major focus areas:

• Studies of climate history and impacts on landscapes and ecosystems

• Hydrologic impacts of climate change

• Carbon cycle science

• Land-use and land-cover changes

• Decision-support research and development.

The goal of global change research at USGS is to improve knowledge and understanding of the Earth’s

past and present climate and environment, the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate, and

the sensitivity and adaptability of natural and managed ecosystems to climate changes.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

Earth Surface Dynamics

The Earth Surface Dynamics program has the following research objectives:

• Document the nature of climatic and environmental change and variability on time scales ranging

from years to millennia.

• Develop fundamental understanding of interactions between climate, earth surface processes, and

marine and terrestrial ecosystems on time scales ranging from years to millennia.

• Seek to understand impacts of climate change and variability on landscapes and marine and

terrestrial systems.

• Model and anticipate the effects of climate change and variability on natural and human systems.

• Provide information on the relative sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of ecosystems,

resources, and regions to climatic change and variability to support land and resource management

and policy decisions.

Geographic Analysis and Monitoring

Research is directed to the understanding of the rates, causes, and consequences of landscape change

over time.This knowledge is used to model processes of landscape change and to forecast future

conditions. Studies are designed to document and understand the nature and causes of changes

occurring on the land surface; to assess the impacts of land surface changes (including urbanization) on

ecosystems, climate variability, biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and human health; and to develop the

best methods to incorporate science findings in the decisionmaking process.

Hydroclimatology

Research on effects of climate change and variability on the hydrologic cycle focuses on characterizing,

and developing predictive methods related to, the hydroclimatology of North America.This includes
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identification of seasonal variations in regional streamflow in relation to atmospheric circulation (for

regional streamflow prediction and flood/drought hazard assessment); the linkage between atmospheric

circulation and snowpack accumulation (for forecasting spring and summer water supply in the western

United States and for flood forecasting), as well as glacier mass balance; and the physical and chemical

variability in riverine and estuarine environments in relation to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic

conditions (to discriminate natural from human-induced effects on such systems). It also includes

documenting the long-term behavior of hydrologic systems in response to past climatic variations and

changes (from decades to hundreds of thousands of years) as well as more recent (decadal) hydrologic

trends.The program maintains an active effort to develop improved representations of terrestrial

hydrologic processes in general circulation and regional climate models. In broad terms, these activities

are aimed at improving statistical and deterministic methods for predicting hydrologic hazards and

related environmental conditions on monthly to interannual time scales.

Carbon Cycle

USGS conducts a broad range of carbon cycle research focused on North America, which includes:

• Assessment of Carbon Stocks and Soil Attributes—Determining the spatial distribution of carbon in

the terrestrial environment in relation to historical natural and human processes, as a basis for

initializing dynamic models of soil carbon. Measuring soil chemistry has focused on the Mississippi

and Delaware River basins, the latter in collaboration with the USDA Forest Service Forest

Inventory and Analysis Program.

• Carbon Sequestration in Sediments—Studying the re-deposition of eroded soils and sediments (and

their associated organic carbon) which sequesters large quantities of carbon, buried at the base of

slopes and in wetlands, riparian areas, and reservoirs.

• Carbon Sequestration inWetlands—Field and laboratory process studies, spatial analysis, and modeling

are being used in wetlands of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Prairie Pothole Region to

quantify the influence of land-use change on carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions

and to identify environmental factors controlling carbon sequestration.These studies will provide

recommendations and decision-support tools to resource managers to maximize carbon sequestration

benefits consistent with DOI goals for restoration of ecosystem services such as habitat, flood storage,

and water quality.

• Landscape Dynamics andVegetation Change—Examining the long-term dynamics of vegetation

change in relation to climate change and variability. A detailed history of vegetation change in the

western United States is being constructed. Past changes are used to model vegetation response to

climatic variables.This knowledge is applied in forecasting the effects of future climate change on

the distribution of vegetation in the western United States.

• Fate of Carbon in Alaskan Landscapes—Expanding process studies and modeling to better understand

both the historic and modern interactions among climate, surface temperature and moisture, fire,

and terrestrial carbon sequestration. Cold region forests (boreal ecosystems) contain large carbon

reserves that are highly susceptible to changes in climate.

• Exchanges of Greenhouse Gases,WaterVapor, and Heat at the Earth’s Surface—Employs field

measurements, remote sensing, and modeling of carbon fluxes to develop estimates of gross primary

productivity, respiration, and net ecosystem exchange at flux tower sites, and uses remotely sensed

data to extrapolate these carbon fluxes to ecoregions.

Changes in Ecosystems

USGS global change research on ecosystems aims to determine the sensitivity and response of

ecosystems and ecological processes to environmental factors, including existing climate and natural
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and anthropogenic impacts, at the local, landscape, regional, and continental level; to assess and predict

how future environmental conditions may affect the structure, function, and long-term viability of

natural and human-impacted ecosystems; and to provide scientific knowledge and technologies needed

for conservation, rehabilitation, and management of sustainable ecosystems. Current USGS ecosystems

research focuses on:

• The relative sensitivity of biological resources and geographic areas of the Nation to global changes

in order to detect early changes and prioritize action

• The causal mechanisms underlying ecosystem responses to global change

• The role of scaling in understanding and managing the spatial and temporal responses of biological

systems to global change

• Development and testing of management options for adapting to the effects of global change and

minimizing undesired effects of global change.

Satellite Data Management and Dissemination

USGS operates and continually enhances the capabilities of the Center for Earth Resources Observation

System (EROS) to serve as the National Satellite Land Remote-Sensing Data Archive, by maintaining

existing data sets, adding new ones, and converting older data sets from deteriorating media to modern,

stable media.The archive’s holdings are used for environmental research, land management, natural

hazard analysis, and natural resource management and development with applications that extend well

beyond U.S. borders.The worldwide community of archive users includes personnel in Federal, State,

local, and tribal governments, researchers at academic institutions, private enterprise, and the public.

Land Use and Land Cover

The Land Cover Characterization Program was started in 1995, to address national and international

requirements for land-cover data that were becoming increasingly sophisticated and diverse.The goal is

to be a national and international center for excellence in land-cover characterization, via:

• Development of state-of-the-art multiscale land-cover characteristics databases used by scientists,

resource managers, planners, and educators (global and national land cover)

• Contribution to the understanding of the patterns, characteristics, and dynamics of land cover and

land-cover change across the Nation and the Earth (urban dynamics and land-cover trends)

• Pursuit of research that improves the utility and efficiency of large-area land-cover characterization

and land-cover characteristics databases

• Serving as a central facility (Land Cover Applications Center) for access to, or information about,

land-cover data.

Related Research

DOI also sponsors contributing research programs addressing the collection, maintenance, analysis, and

interpretation of short- and long-term land, water, biological, and other geological and biological

processes and resources through dispersed observing networks; research in land use and land cover,

including creation of maps and digital data products; and inventorying and monitoring of biological

habitats, resources, and diversity.
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DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Principal Areas of Focus

Through Department of State annual funding, the United States is the world’s leading financial

contributor to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—the principal international organization for the

assessment of scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant to the understanding of

climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Recent DOS

contributions to these organizations provide substantial support for global climate observation and

assessment activities in developing countries. DOS also works with other agencies in promoting

international cooperation in a range of bilateral and multilateral climate change initiatives, including:

the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, the Carbon Sequestration Leadership

Forum, the Group on Earth Observations, the Methane-to-Markets Partnership, the International

Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy, and the Generation IV International Forum.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

During FY 2008, DOS will continue to support the activities of the UNFCCC and the IPCC, and will

advance the bilateral and multilateral partnerships for global climate science, technology, and

observation that were undertaken in the FY 2006-2007 time frame.
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Transportation conducts research and uses existing science to improve

decisionmaking tools to address climate change. USDOT supports research that 1) examines the

potential impacts of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and services;

2) increases energy efficiency and reduces greenhouse gases; and 3) improves transportation

greenhouse gas data and modeling. USDOT has many programs that have either direct or indirect

climate benefits and is working to develop cross-modal strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

USDOT’s Climate Change Center is the Department’s focal point for information and technical

expertise on climate change.The Center coordinates research, policies, and actions related to

transportation and climate change with USDOT’s component organizations. Supporting USDOT’s

core goals of safety, mobility, environmental stewardship, and security, the Center promotes

comprehensive approaches to reduce greenhouse gases, to prepare for the potential impacts of climate

change, and to develop necessary adaptations to transportation operations and infrastructure.The

Center’s three primary objectives are to:

• Promote cost-effective strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions while supporting improved

transportation safety, mobility, and efficiency

• Foster strategies to avoid, mitigate, or adapt to the potential impacts of climate change on the

transportation system

• Provide leadership to the transportation community and coordinate USDOT multi-modal activities

on climate change.

The Center supports CCSP goals through these objectives. Specifically, the Center aims to inform

CCSP Goal 4 by identifying and providing scientific inputs for evaluating adaptation options and CCSP

Goal 5 by supporting adaptive management and planning for physical infrastructure sensitive to

climate variability and change.

In addition to participating in the Center, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has independent

programs to assess and identify potential measures to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas

emissions. FAA conducts research to support CCSP Goal 2, leveraging research with other U.S.

Government agencies to reduce uncertainties surrounding aviation emissions and their effect on climate

change. For example, FAA research through the Partnership for Air Transportation Noise and Emissions

Reduction (PARTNER) Center of Excellence addresses the impact of aircraft contrails on climate

change. FAA also has a number of ongoing operational initiatives to reduce fuel consumption and thus

the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by aviation, including improved air traffic management,

reduced vertical separation minimums, and the voluntary airport low emissions program that assists in

deploying low emissions technology to airport operations. FAA also participates heavily in the work

program of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental

Protection, and lends technical expertise and data to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
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Program Highlights for FY 2008

USDOT’s Climate Change Center is undertaking several research projects that support CCSP Goals 4

and 5:

• Refining a tool to allow comparative analysis of emissions from different modes of transportation,

including aviation, automobile, marine, and diesel transportation

• Exploring adaptation to potential impacts of climate change by partnering with the Transportation

Research Board of the National Academies

– Reexamine the role of design standards for transportation infrastructure in light of potential

impacts from climate change

– Develop operational responses to potential climate change impacts

– Review approaches to decisionmaking under uncertainty

• Conducting an emissions analysis of freight transport, comparing land-side and water-side short-sea

routes to develop and demonstrate a decision modeling tool

• Determining the potential effects of sea level rise on national transportation infrastructure.

The Center sponsors CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7, Impacts of ClimateVariability and

Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure–Gulf Coast Study.This project—initiated under

the President’s Climate Change Research Initiative—is a joint research effort with USGS. A Federal

Advisory Committee was formed in 2006, and Phase I was completed in 2007. Phase I provided an

integrated overview of infrastructure sensitivities in the region.This document is scheduled for

completion in the second quarter of FY 2008.

The Office of the Secretary is funding several projects, including a Best Practices Guidebook for

Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Freight Transportation designed for use by companies and individual

freight operators.

Related Research

Many of DOT’s programs have ancillary climate benefits:

• The Federal Highway Administration has numerous programs to prepare the highway system for

weather irregularities and reduce air pollutants:

– RoadWeather Management Program.This program seeks to better understand the impacts of

weather on roadways.The Clarus initiative will develop and demonstrate a national integrated

surface transportation road weather observing, forecasting, and data management system.

– Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program.The CMAQ program

provides over $8.6 billion in funds over a period of 5 years (2005-2009) to state transportation

agencies to invest in projects that reduce emissions from transportation-related sources.

– Idle-Reduction Activities. DOT, EPA, and DOE have provided funding for the implementation of

idle-reduction projects around the country (both on-board and off-board technologies) for

transportation, air quality, and energy stakeholders.The projects have resulted in reductions in

criteria air pollutants, such as NOx, as well as reductions in CO2 emissions.This initiative has

expanded to include idling emissions from marine, rail, and off-road heavy-duty engines.
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• The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration sets new Corporate Average Fuel Economy

standards for light trucks, increasing energy efficiency and thus decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.

• FAA continues to develop a suite of environmental analytical tools—including the System for

assessing Aviation’s Global Emissions (SAGE), a component of the Aviation Environmental Design

Tool (AEDT) and the Aviation Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) in order to assess cost-effective

options to limit or reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.This component of

AEDT generates aviation fuel consumption and emissions inventories for baseline conditions based

upon operational data, estimates future emissions based upon fleet forecasts including technology

advances, and also estimates future emissions based upon projections for changes in the National Air

Space including operational improvements.The tool also has the capability to assess the influence of

market-based measures to reduce fuel consumption and thus greenhouse gas emissions. Data from

AEDT/SAGE is used to calculate the FAA’s Flight Plan aviation fuel efficiency goal.

• The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Fuel Cell Program has researched and demonstrated fuel

cell bus technology since the mid-1990’s. FTA also conducts alternative fuels research.

• Other programs for congestion mitigation, hydrogen-powered transportation, and transit

developments all will potentially reduce greenhouse gases.
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AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Principal Areas of Focus

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) is an innovative application of science for

supporting efforts to alleviate risks related to existing climate variability or potential climate change.

Through FEWS NET, USAID is able to provide decisionmakers—both in the United States and in the

developing world—with information designed to support policy and program interventions for effective

and timely response to drought and food insecurity. FEWS NET historically focused its activities in

18 drought-prone countries across sub-Saharan Africa and, as of 2003, FEWS NET has expanded its

coverage to include select countries in Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition to

monitoring a wide variety of socioeconomic indicators to identify levels of food insecurity, FEWS NET

monitors and analyzes remotely sensed data and ground-based meteorological, crop, and rangeland

observations to track the progress of rainy seasons and crop production in semi-arid regions, in order

to identify early indications of reduced food availability and access.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

In FY 2008, FEWS NET will continue to provide seasonal monitoring in relationship to analyses of

food insecurity conditions in Africa and Central America, as well as in Haiti and Afghanistan. A major

element of this work has been to strengthen information networks that collect and analyze data to

reveal intra- and interannual climate variability trends as they relate to possible longer term climate

variability and change.
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

Principal Areas of Focus

EPA’s Global Change Research Program is stakeholder-oriented, with primary emphasis on assessing

the potential consequences of global change (particularly climate variability and change) on air quality,

water quality, aquatic ecosystems, human health, and socioeconomic systems in the United States. EPA

uses the results of these studies to investigate adaptation options to improve society’s ability to effectively

respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change, and to develop decision-support

tools for resource managers coping with a changing climate.The program is multidisciplinary and

emphasizes the integration of the concepts, methods, and results of the physical, biological, and social

sciences into decision-support frameworks.This work is consistent with and closely coordinated with

the 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan.

The program uses a place-based approach because the impacts of global change and their solutions

are often unique to a location (e.g., a watershed). Partnerships are established with locally based

decisionmakers to ensure that the program is responsive to their unique scientific information needs

and the socioeconomic realities at their locales.

The planning and implementation of EPA’s program is integrated by the CCSP with other participating

Federal departments and agencies to reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and add

integrative value to products and deliverables produced under the CCSP’s auspices. EPA coordinates

with other CCSP agencies to develop and provide timely, useful, and scientifically sound information to

decisionmakers.This includes support for the production of CCSP synthesis and assessment products

called for in the CCSP Strategic Plan, and the development of decision-support tools for resource

managers and decisionmakers. Also, as called for by the National Research Council in 2001, EPA

supports and fosters projects that link the producers and users of knowledge in a dialog that builds a

mutual understanding of what is needed, what can credibly be said, and how it can be said in a way that

maintains scientific credibility.

EPA’s program has two major areas of emphasis: air quality and water quality/aquatic ecosystems.The

program also evaluates the human health consequences of the changes in air quality, water quality, and

aquatic ecosystems.

Air Quality

Studies are underway that examine the potential consequences of global change on air quality in the

United States.The long-term goal of this focus area is to provide the approaches, methods, and models

to quantitatively evaluate the effects of global change on air quality, and to identify technology

advancements and adaptive responses and quantify their effect on air quality.

Water Quality/Aquatic Ecosystems

EPA’s mission is to protect human health and safeguard the natural environment. EPA provides

environmental protection that contributes to making communities and ecosystems diverse, sustainable,

and economically productive. Consistent with this goal, EPA’s Global Change Research Program is

assessing the impacts of global change on water quality and aquatic ecosystems in the United States.
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Water quality is affected by changes in runoff following changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration

and/or changes in land use.The program is investigating the possible impacts of global change (climate

and land-use change) on water quality using a watershed approach. A major focus is on studying the

sensitivity to climate change of goals articulated in the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water

Act, and the opportunities available within the provisions of these Acts to address anticipated impacts.

The program also has planned research activities that evaluate the effects of global change on aquatic

ecosystems (which may include lakes, rivers, and streams; wetlands; and estuaries and coastal ecosystems),

invasive nonindigenous species, and ecosystem services. EPA’s investigations of the effects of global

change on aquatic ecosystems uses as input the research being done by other CCSP agencies on marine

and terrestrial ecosystems.Therefore, EPA’s ability to successfully complete its assessments depends

crucially upon the ability of other CCSP agencies to complete their related research activities.

Human Health

Since health is affected by a variety of social, economic, political, environmental, and technological

factors, investigating the health impacts of global change is a complex challenge. As a result, health

studies in EPA’s Global Change Research Program go beyond basic epidemiological research to develop

integrated health evaluation frameworks that consider the effects of multiple stresses, their interactions,

and human adaptive responses. Along with health sector studies conducted in conjunction with other

CCSP agencies, there are research activities focused on the possible consequences of global change on

weather-related morbidity and vector- and water-borne diseases. In addition, the results from the

program’s air quality studies and water quality studies will be used to evaluate health consequences.

Intramural and extramural research contribute to all of EPA’s investigations. In an attempt to capitalize

on expertise in the academic community, a significant portion of the program’s resources is dedicated

to extramural research grants administered through the STAR (Science to Achieve Results) program.

The STAR program focuses on science to support investigations of the consequences of global change

for air quality, ecosystems, and human health in the United States. EPA will continue to coordinate

closely with other CCSP agencies to identify the specific topics that should be emphasized within the

STAR program.

Program Evaluation

The EPA Global Change Research Program is evaluated through extensive review by EPA’s independent

Board of Scientific Counselors (BOSC). A review in 2006 by the BOSC concluded that the program has

conducted the “right work” and done it “well.”The program “has provided substantial benefits to the

Nation” and “is on course to make significant further contributions to societal outcomes by informing

and facilitating decisions by the public and private sector actors who must consider the prospects of

global change.”

Program Highlights for FY 2008

EPA will continue to make significant contributions to the ongoing research activities of CCSP, and

provide timely and useful information to resource managers coping with a changing climate. EPAsponsored investigations will continue to be conducted through public-private partnerships that actively

engage researchers from the academic community, decisionmakers, resource managers, and other
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affected stakeholders. Highlights of specific activities that will be undertaken or completed by EPA in

FY 2008 follow:

• Complete the three CCSP synthesis and assessment products for which EPA is the Lead Agency, and

support production and completion of eight others.

• Initiate the second phase of EPA’s quantitative assessment of the effects of global change on air

quality in the United States.

• Initiate an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water quality in the United States in

support of EPA’s statutory requirements under the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water

Act.

• Release an assessment of the effects of climate change and interacting stressors on the establishment

and expansion of aquatic invasive species, and the implications for resource management.

• Complete an assessment of the consequences of global change for water quality related to biocritera.

• Release national maps depicting land-use scenarios for the conterminous United States consistent

with IPCC emissions storylines, for use in assessments of where climate-land use interactions may

exacerbate impacts or create adaptation opportunities; also release an online ArcGIS tool that can

be used to generate additional land-use scenarios with customized inputs.

• Release a new online Climate Assessment Tool that provides resource managers with the ability to

assess and manage impacts of climate change on sediment loadings to streams (e.g., through the use

of riparian buffer zones).

• Co-sponsor with NOAA a study by the National Research Council of strategies and methods for

climate-related decision support.

• Issue a joint Request for Proposals with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

focusing on the potential impacts of climate change on human health in the United States.

Related Research

In addition to focused CCSP activities, EPA conducts research that contributes to the characterization

and understanding of risks to ecosystems and to human health.The ecosystems-based research is

designed to understand and predict ecosystem exposure, responses, and vulnerabilities to high-risk

chemicals and non-chemical stressors (e.g., invasive species, genetically altered organisms) at multiple

scales of biological organization and geographic scales.The research in human health is oriented toward

assessing the cumulative health risks to humans (e.g., cancer, reproductive, cardiovascular)—including

high-risk subpopulations (e.g., children)—from chemical stressors emanating from multiple sources.

Both of these major research areas will be affected by and are inextricably interrelated with climate

change.
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NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

Principal Areas of Focus

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducts a program of research to advance

knowledge on the most important questions in Earth science through space-based observation and

development and deployment of enabling technologies, as authorized in the NASA Authorization Act of

2005 and in the Presidential National Space Policy of 2006. NASA’s end-to-end program of calibrated

and validated observations, scientific and technological research and modeling, and application of this

knowledge for societal benefits encompasses all themes of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate

Change Science Program. NASA’s FY 2008 investment in the 13-agency Climate Change Science

Program is 56% of the total amount of the President’s FY 2008 Budget Request for CCSP. In addition,

NASA contributes substantially to other interagency initiatives complementary with CCSP, including

the U.S. Ocean Action Plan and the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System.

NASA continues to fulfill the National Research Council vision for U.S. leadership in interdisciplinary

Earth science research to understand the complexity of the changing environment, its interaction

with life, and how human activities affects the environment, and, in association with national and

international agencies, to apply this understanding for the well-being of society (described in the

January 15, 2007, report entitled Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for

the Next Decade and Beyond, known as the NRC Decadal Survey).

NASA climate science and technology encompass Earth’s global atmosphere from the surface of the land

and sea to the top of the stratosphere; the global oceans including sea ice; all land surfaces including

snow and ice; the solid Earth beneath the ocean; the ecosystems in the air, oceans, and land; and all the

interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, snow, ice, and associated ecology, including humans.

NASA studies the Sun and the interaction of its radiation with the Earth’s upper atmosphere, not only

through its Earth Science program as reported here, but through its Heliophysics Program, which

emphasizes solar physics and the mechanisms of the Sun-Earth connection.

NASA pioneered the interdisciplinary field of global integrated Earth system science, which explores

the interactions among land, oceans, atmosphere, ice, and life.To study the components of the global

integrated Earth system and interactions between components, NASA developed and deployed a

constellation of satellites.The following NASA satellites are currently operating: ACRIMSAT, Aqua,

Aura, CALIPSO, CloudSat, EO, GRACE, ICESat, Jason, Landsat-7, QuikSCAT, SORCE,Terra, and

TRMM. NASA deploys aircraft- and surface-based instruments for calibration, validation, and increased

level of interpretation of satellite data that are required for development of climate-quality satellite

measurements.To accomplish its mission on understanding the global integrated Earth system, NASA

possesses state-of-the-art computing capability and capacity for extensive global integrated Earth system

modeling and maintains the world’s largest data and information system for collecting, processing,

archiving, and distributing scientific data.

NASA addresses the overarching climate question “How is the Earth changing, and what are the

consequences for life on Earth?” Five subordinate questions describe both the NASA and CCSP

approach to understanding the global integrated Earth system: How is the global Earth system changing;
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what are the primary causes of change in the Earth system; how does the Earth system respond to

natural and human-induced change; what are the consequences of change in the Earth system for

human civilization; and how well can we predict future changes in the Earth system?

To understand the global integrated Earth system, NASA, within the Earth Science Division Research

Program, organized science focus areas, some of which are aligned with CCSP research elements. Four

NASA science focus areas—Atmospheric Composition, Climate Variability and Change, Global Water

and Energy Cycle, and Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems—are aligned directly with CCSP research elements.

The NASA Earth Science Division Applied Sciences Program has many features that are aligned with

the CCSP research element Human Contributions and Resources.Weather and Earth Surface and

Interior are additional NASA science focus areas.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

In the summer of 2007, NASA held workshops to initiate planning of four new satellite missions that

were recommended by the NRC Decadal Survey.These missions would measure spectrally resolved

incident solar radiation and outgoing Earth radiation at the top of the atmosphere (CLARREO), land

surface and ice deformations and vegetation structure (DESDynI), ice sheet structure (ICESat-II), and

soil moisture and freeze/thaw conditions (SMAP).These missions would contribute to FY 2008 CCSP

interagency implementation priorities, which have multi-year lifetimes: aerosol forcing, clouds, and

radiation (CLARREO); abrupt climate change (DESDynI and ICESat-II); carbon cycle, ecosystem

productivity, and land cover (DESDynI); and water cycle and drought (SMAP). In FY 2008, NASA

intends to continue evaluating technical and scientific aspects of satellite missions recommended by the

NRC Decadal Survey.

NASA will make significant progress in FY 2008 to expand scientific knowledge in each of the eight

CCSP interagency implementation priorities.These contributions draw from NASA’s capabilities in

obtaining global space-based observations, and using them, together with ground- and aircraft-based

observations, to improve knowledge of Earth system processes and to improve predictive capability for

addressing the future evolution of the Earth system. Some examples of NASA’s activities in each highpriority CCSP research area follow.

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENTS NASA GLOBAL INTEGRATED EARTH

SYSTEM SCIENCE FOCUS AREAS

Atmospheric Composition Atmospheric Composition

Climate Variability and Change Climate Variability and Change

Global Water Cycle Global Water and Energy Cycle

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

Global Carbon Cycle

Ecosystems

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

Human Contributions and Responses Applied Sciences
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Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability

NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) project focuses on

data assimilation in implementing a national capability for studies of the global integrated Earth system.

MERRA utilizes the version 5 Goddard (Space Flight Center) Earth Observing System (GEOS-5)

atmospheric general circulation model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation of

satellite and in situ observations to produce global analyses of the atmosphere during the satellite era

1979 to present.Variability and predictability of the hydrological cycle will be emphasized. An External

Users Group participating in MERRA’s development showed that assimilating rain rates improved

precipitation analyses and estimates of the outgoing longwave radiation. In FY 2008, MERRA will be

operational and will provide the highest quality atmospheric reanalysis for the satellite era.

Integration ofWater Cycle Observations, Research, and Modeling

The NASA Energy- and Water-cycle Study (NEWS) program integrates observations and models to

close the water cycle budget for limited regions. NEWS is expected to provide a comprehensive

depiction of regional water stocks and fluxes over the globe. GRACE data will be used to estimate

monthly water volume variations in ocean, ice, land, and atmosphere reservoirs, including distribution

of source and sink regions of freshwater between storage reservoirs.TRMM and other measurements

recorded over the United States will be analyzed to test a hypothesis that aerosols can reduce the

orographic enhancement of precipitation downwind of urban areas.The fundamental relationship

between global hydrological cycle and Earth’s radiative energy balance will be studied with data from

the A-Train (MODIS/Aqua, AMSR/Aqua, Cloudsat). NEWS data sets of all three phases of water—

vapor, ice, liquid—will explore the coupled dynamics and thermodynamics of tropical intraseasonal

fluctuations, which degrade the predictability of tropical weather.The strong linkage between MERRA

and NEWS will improve understanding of the causes and predictability of droughts, including the

impact of global warming on drought.

Carbon Cycle Research Integration

NASA will support scientific studies in FY 2008 that provide unique information to characterize and

quantify carbon stocks and fluxes for North America and adjacent oceans. Landsat data, available since

1972, will be utilized in estimating sources and sinks of carbon in the continental United States over

the past 3 decades. In the North American boreal region where black spruce forests are a major carbon

reservoir, trajectories of post-fire succession will be determined with MODIS/Aqua, MODIS/Terra,

and Landsat data. NASA will test a new technique to measure methane, which has a global warming

potential more than twenty times that of carbon dioxide on a per molecule basis.The timing and duration

of surface and soil freeze-thaw states, which impact emissions and uptake of atmospheric carbon, will be

determined over North America with QuikSCAT data.The hypothesis that the coastal ocean is a sink

for atmospheric carbon dioxide will be tested with SeaWiFS, MODIS/Aqua, and MODIS/Terra data.

Understanding Aerosol Forcing and Interactions with Clouds and non-CO2 Gases

NASA’s Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) project involved three aircraft

(ER-2, DC-8, and WB-57), seven satellites [Aqua, Aura, CALIPSO, CloudSat, PARASOL (non-NASA),

Terra, and TRMM], and high-altitude balloons during a 17 July - 8 August 2007 campaign focusing on

an area near Costa Rica. TC4 involved more than 400 scientists, students, and support staff. In addition

to calibration and validation of satellite instruments,TC4 examined the production and aging of clouds

and the transport of chemicals in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause transition layer at about
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Appendix A

12- to 17-km altitude where vigorous vertical motion in the atmosphere over the ocean carries gases

and aerosols up from the troposphere. High-resolution balloon observations of ozone and water

reached the middle stratosphere. NASA’s aircraft instruments measured radiation, aerosols, and a wide

range of chemical constituents, including total water and water vapor that influence Earth’s climate.

Water vapor isotopic abundance measurements will be used to understand vertical transport across the

tropopause. In FY 2008, the large volume of data will be processed, analyzed, and synthesized by more

than 50 NASA-supported research groups. Identifying the key processes in the tropical tropopausestratosphere region is important for progress on global climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion,

and global tropospheric chemistry.

Abrupt Changes in aWarming Climate

NASA will continue its scientific leadership on studies of rapid or abrupt climate change through its

research on Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, Arctic Ocean ice coverage, global sea level, Atlantic

Ocean meridional circulation, and global integrated Earth system modeling, which introduced the

concept of “climate tipping point” with regard to a dangerous level of atmospheric greenhouse gas

concentration. Measurements from GRACE and ICESat showed that the total volume of the world’s ice

sheets are getting smaller through melting, with a consequence of increasing sea level evidenced by

TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason observations, which indicated global annual mean sea level was rising

faster than that predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In FY 2008, the firstever measurement of the total discharge of ice from the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet will be estimated

with ICESat and Landsat data. Greenland ice sheet thicknesses recorded in September 2007 with a

high-frequency radar instrument on a NASA aircraft will be analyzed in FY2008.The dramatic decline of

Artic Ocean ice coverage over the past 25 years, primarily in summer months and also during winter,

dictates the need for improved knowledge of Pan-Arctic sea ice export and efficacy of Arctic Ocean sea

ice models, which NASA will emphasize in FY2008. Preparations will continue for the launch in 2009

of the sea surface salinity satellite mission Aquarius, which will contribute substantially to predictions of

future behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a feature associated with abrupt

climate change.

Impacts of ClimateVariability and Change on Ecosystem Productivity and Biodiversity

NASA will complete a number of studies in FY 2008 analyzing the vulnerability of biodiversity to

changing climates in various ecosystems, including coastal and high-elevation ecosystems. Examples of

studies include the impact of El Niño on fisheries off California, ocean upwelling dynamics in the

Galapagos Marine Reserve, intertidal biogeography, biodiversity changes with mountain altitude in

Ecuador, impacts of land-cover changes on montane cloud forests in Costa Rica, estimation of the

number of tree species in ecoregions of the continental United States, and biophysical and land-use

controls on biodiversity in North America.These activities involve a wide range of satellite sensors,

including MODIS/Aqua, MODIS/Terra, and ASTER/Terra.

Land Use and Land Cover Change and Climate Interactions

The Mid-Decadal Global Land Survey (MDGLS), a project of NASA and USGS, assembled a global

30-m spatial resolution land cover data set for 2004-2007 using Landsat-5, Landsat-7, ASTER/Terra,

and EO measurements. In 2008, NASA will generate and distribute MDGLS data products for

comparative studies on land-use and land-cover (LULC) change with similar data products developed

for the 1970s, 1990s, and circa 2000. Additionally, in FY 2008, NASA will initiate five to seven

scientific studies on the environmental, social, economic, and human health consequences of LULC
changes projected over the next 5-50 years. A subset of the NASA selected projects will support the

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) and the Monsoon Asia Integrated

Regional Study (MAIRS) on carbon and water cycle processes and land-cover changes including fires.

CopingWith Drought Through Research and Regional Partnerships

NASA works with governmental organizations to infuse NASA observations and scientific research results

into operational data products that benefit society. In FY 2008, NASA will continue its partnership with

the Northern Colorado Water Conservation District and the Bureau of Reclamation in utilizing

MODIS/Aqua, MODIS/Terra, ASTER/Terra, and Landsat-7 data to estimate weekly evapotranspiration

for real-time water management applications. NASA is investigating potential improvement of the

weekly NOAA-USDA Drought Monitor of intensity and extent of drought conditions over North

America through a partnership with USGS and others working with NOAA and USDA to utilize

MODIS/Aqua and MODIS/Terra data.

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
188

Appendix A

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Principal Areas of Focus

NSF programs address global change issues through investments in challenging ideas, creative people,

and effective tools. In particular, NSF global change research programs support research and related

activities to advance the fundamental understanding of physical, chemical, biological, and human

systems and the interactions among them.The programs encourage interdisciplinary activities and focus

particularly on Earth system processes and the consequences of change. NSF programs facilitate data

acquisition and information management activities necessary for fundamental research on global

change, and promote the enhancement of models designed to improve understanding of Earth system

processes and interactions, and to develop advanced analytic methods to facilitate basic research. NSF also

supports fundamental research on the general processes used by organizations to identify and evaluate

policies for mitigation, adaptation, and other responses to the challenge of varying environmental

conditions.Through its investment, NSF contributes to CCSP by providing a comprehensive scientific

foundation for many of the synthesis and assessment products identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

Atmospheric Composition

NSF programs in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry will continue to address the composition of

the atmosphere and its relation to climate variability and change. Studies of the transformation and

transport of gaseous constituents and aerosols provide insights into the radiative and cloud nucleating

properties of the atmosphere. Studies of the global distributions of greenhouse gases and aerosols will

provide input for future scenarios of radiative forcing.

ClimateVariability and Change

NSF programs continue to emphasize climate variability and change as a major issue.This research

element supports observational campaigns and numerous analytical and modeling activities. Ocean

science efforts will focus on changes in ocean structure, circulation, and interactions with the atmosphere

to improve current understanding of the processes and models that address future changes, particularly

those that may happen abruptly. Studies of decadal variability and changes in the statistics of extreme

weather events will be an area of emphasis in climate change research.The Community Climate System

Model (CCSM) is being developed to improve model physics and parameterizations that will lead to

more comprehensive models incorporating interactive chemistry and biology. It also is being tested in

combination with an embedded, state-of-the-art, mesoscale model to carry out high-resolution decadal

climate prediction. Studies of paleoclimatology will continue to be supported as a means to provide

baseline data on natural climate variability from the past and from key climatic regions.These studies

will improve understanding of the natural variability of the climate system and in particular will enable

reconstructions and evaluations of past environmental change as inputs for model validations.

The GlobalWater Cycle

NSF supports a broad-based effort to understand all aspects of the global water cycle with continued

emphasis on interdisciplinary research. Relevant programs will continue to explore ways to optimally

and effectively utilize the wide range of hydrological data types—continuous and discrete time and
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

space information from a variety of platforms for research purposes. Information from process studies

will be used to refine models through scaling and parameterizations of sub-grid processes, particularly

the fluxes of water through the Earth system. Planning for and the initiation of several prototype

hydrological observatories, both physical and virtual, are being carried out. Science and Technology

Centers will continue to work with stakeholders responsible for water management and with educators to

translate research advances into useful products, particularly exploring issues related to decisionmaking in

the face of uncertainty as applied to the urbanizing and drought-prone Southwest. NSF’s International

PolarYear investments will emphasize ice sheet change as a contribution to understanding the global

water cycle.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

Several NSF programs continue to address key aspects of land-use and land-cover change through studies

in ecological rates of change and related species diversity; Arctic systems; temporal variability; water

and energy influences on vegetative systems; and diverse human influences on land utilization.

Global Carbon Cycle

NSF supports a wide variety of carbon cycle research activities. Investigations examine a range of topics

in terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their relations to the carbon cycle. Research in terrestrial

settings will explore, for example, carbon storage, delivery of carbon by rivers, carbon fluxes from

high-latitude soils, and carbon export from mountains and submarine groundwater discharge. In the

oceans, air-sea gas exchange, remineralization of particles in the mesopelagic, and the upper ocean

carbon budget will be addressed. Carbon cycle studies will integrate observational data into models to

provide insights for understanding key aspects of the global carbon cycle.

Ecosystems

Several NSF programs address terrestrial and marine ecosystems through observational, experimental,

modeling, and laboratory studies.The collection of information and knowledge of climate-ecosystem

interactions in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems through the Long-Term Ecological Research

(LTER) projects derives from the rich array of observation, monitoring, experimentation, and modeling

throughout this networked research program.The Hawaii Ocean Times-Series (HOT) and Bermuda

Atlantic Time Series (BATS) sites augment the LTER network in the central ocean gyre ecosystems.The

Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics program will continue to study the impact of global ocean changes

on marine ecosystems through specific synthesis activities focused on the North Atlantic, North Pacific,

and Southern Ocean systems.

Human Contributions and Responses

NSF supports basic research on the processes through which people (individually, in groups, or through

organizations) interact with natural environmental systems. Programs support projects that focus on

decisionmaking under uncertainty associated with climate change.These projects are expected to produce

new knowledge and tools that should facilitate improved decisionmaking by various stakeholder groups

trying to deal with uncertainties associated with future climate variability and change.

International Research and Cooperation

The “International PolarYear 2007-2008” (IPY) will extend from March 2007 through March 2009.The

President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy designated NSF the lead Federal agency in organizing

U.S. International PolarYear activities. NSF IPY activities will focus on improving understanding of
190

Appendix A

climate change in both polar regions and on linkages between polar and global systems. In addition,

NSF, in cooperation with NASA and international partners, will focus on longer term sea-level changes

associated with changes in the stability of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Related Research

NSF will continue to support “contributing” research on broader topics that are closely related to global

and climate change.These include, inter alia, studies of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, ecosystems,

paleoclimatology, and human dimensions—all of which add substantively to the specific programs

supporting CCSP objectives. NSF has the computing infrastructure in place and under enhancement to

enable more effective utilization of the research information. In addition, NSF supports projects that

integrate research with education on global and climate change to demonstrate that scientific

visualization—incorporated into inquiry-based learning—can enable students to develop an

understanding of complex global change phenomena. Students address these issues by evaluating

multimedia data at various spatial and temporal resolutions, reviewing scientific evidence, and

considering social concerns that contribute to global and climate change debates.
SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION

National Air and Space Museum (NASM)

National Museum of Natural History (NMNH)

National Zoological Park (NZP)

Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO)

Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC)

Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI)

Principal Areas of Focus

Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change research is conducted at the Smithsonian

Astrophysical Observatory, the National Air and Space Museum, the Smithsonian Environmental

Research Center, the National Museum of Natural History, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,

and the National Zoological Park. Research is organized around themes of atmospheric processes,

ecosystem dynamics, observing natural and anthropogenic environmental change on daily to decadal

time scales, and defining longer term climate proxies present in the historical artifacts and records of

the museums as well as in the geologic record at field sites.The Smithsonian Institution program strives

to improve knowledge of the natural processes involved in global climate change, to provide a longterm repository of climate-relevant research materials for present and future studies, and to bring this

knowledge to various audiences, ranging from scholarly to the lay public.The unique contribution of

the Smithsonian Institution is a long-term perspective—for example, undertaking investigations that

may require extended study before producing useful results and conducting observations on sufficiently

long (e.g., decadal) time scales to resolve human-caused modification of natural variability.

Program Highlights for FY 2008

Atmospheric Composition

At SERC, measurements will be made of spectral UV-B in Maryland (>25-year record), Florida,

Arizona, and other sites in the United States.These data will be electronically disseminated to meet the

needs for assessing the biological and chemical impact of varying ultraviolet radiation exposures.

ClimateVariability and Change

Research at NASM will emphasize the use of remote-sensing data to improve theories of drought, sand

mobility, soil stability, and climate change in the Mojave Desert and Simpson Desert, Australia. Studies

at NMNH and STRI will focus on the paleoecology of climate change.

Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems

Several Smithsonian programs will examine biological responses to global change. At SERC, research

will be conducted on the responses of global ecosystems to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations

(also a contribution to the Global Carbon Cycle program).This SERC program will also focus on

invasive species, and solar UV-B. Biodiversity education and research will be performed at STRI,

NMNH, and NZP.Tropical biodiversity research programs monitor global change effects through

repeated sampling of flora and fauna in tropical forests, and identifying the physical and biological

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T
192

Appendix A

processes of growth and decline of species. Other studies on ecosystem response to increasing habitat

fragmentation will be conducted at NZP.

Human Dimensions of Global Change

The general public and research community will be informed of global change research conducted by

Smithsonian and other CCSP agencies via exhibits. During FY 2008, an exhibition on soils developed

by staff at NMNH and SERC will be displayed at NMNH. Part of the “Forces of Change” series, the

exhibition will include soils’ role as atmospheric sources and sinks.The new Ocean Hall (SI/NOAA

joint collaboration) will address issues such as loss of sea ice habitat and coral reef ecosystems due to

global warming and ocean acidification.

Related Research

Much of the global change research performed at the Smithsonian is not supported by direct Federal

appropriation (i.e., CCSP cross-cut funding) and instead is supported by other public and private

sources (including other CCSP-participating agencies).These projects are nonetheless organized around

the CCSP program elements, thus amplifying the scope and impact of research supported directly by

CCSP. At SAO, there are extensive measurement programs for stratospheric and tropospheric

composition.These include pollution measurement from space and its eventual development into

continuous global monitoring.This work contributes to global climate observations, enhances climate

modeling systems, quantifies greenhouse gas sources and sinks, and reduces scientific uncertainties of

aerosol effects.There are continuing studies on solar activity and its relationship to climate. SERC and

STRI receive agency support via competitive grants programs to perform studies of ecosystem

responses to increased carbon dioxide, UV-B, and invasive species. Other contributing activities include

research conducted by several units within the Smithsonian in a variety of habitats concerning natural

and human-induced variations in species, populations-communities, and ecosystems.These studies help

clarify the relative importance of global change effects as one of several agents of ecological change.

Studies of environmental change over long time periods are aided by the Institution’s collections. Used

by researchers around the world, these materials provide raw data for evaluating changes in the physical

and biological environment that occurred before human influences.
APPENDIX B

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

FY 2008 BUDGET TABLES
194

Appendix B

APPENDIX B

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

FY 2008 BUDGET TABLES

The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) integrates federally supported

research on global change and climate change, as conducted by 13 U.S. Government

departments and agencies:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Department of Commerce (DOC)

• Department of Defense (DOD)

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior (DOI)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

The CCSP incorporates and integrates the U.S. Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP) with the Administration’s U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative

(CCRI). CCSP budget requests are coordinated through interagency research working

groups and other mechanisms, but ultimate budget accountability resides with the

participating departments and agencies. As a result of its interagency composition,

activities of CCSP participating agencies are funded by Congress through nine of the

13 annual Appropriations bills.

The following tables summarize the CCSP budget:

• Tables 1 and 2 show the CCSP FY 2006-2008 budget aligned by CCSP goal.

• Table 3 shows the CCSP FY 2006-2008 budget by agency, with USGCRP and

CCRI budgets listed separately and also combined in a single CCSP total.

• Table 4 shows the USGCRP FY 2006-2008 budget by CCSP research element.

• Table 5 shows the FY 2006-2008 CCRI budget.

• Subsequent tables show, for each CCSP participating agency, the FY 2006-2008

budget for both USGCRP and CCRI activities.
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Goal 2 Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems

GOAL 1 TOTAL 325.1 325.9 320.3

TABLE 1. FY 2006-2008 CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

BUDGET BY GOAL AND FOCUS AREA

Budgets ($M)2

Focus FY 2007 FY 2008

Area Description (from CCSP Strategic Plan)

1 FY 2006 Estimate Request Agencies

Goal 1 Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural

variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and changes

Focus 1.1

Focus 1.2

Focus 1.3

Focus 1.4

Focus 1.5

Focus 2.1

Focus 2.2

Focus 2.3

37.8

38.5

38.9

39.9

170.0

100.3

32.0

40.1

39.7

37.9

36.9

40.8

170.6

96.3

29.7

40.4

45.3

38.1

37.4

41.4

158.1

101.8

28.4

40.4

DOC, DOE,

DOI, NASA,

NSF

DOC, DOE,

DOI, NASA,

NSF

DOC, DOE,

DOI, NASA,

NSF

DOE, DOI,

NASA, NSF, SI

DOC, DOE,

DOI, NASA,

NSF, SI

DOC, DOE,

DOT, NASA,

NSF

USDA, DOE,

NASA

NASA, NSF

Better understand natural long-term cycles in climate

[e.g., Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), North Atlantic

Oscillation (NAO)]

Improve and harness the capability to forecast

El Niño-La Niña and other seasonal-to-interannual

cycles of variability

Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through

improved observations, analysis, and modeling, and

determine whether any changes in their frequency or

intensity lie outside the range of natural variability

Increase confidence in the understanding of how and

why climate has changed

Expand observations and data/information system

capabilities

Reduce uncertainties about the sources and sinks of

greenhouse gases, emissions of aerosols and their

precursors, and their climate effects

Monitor the recovery of the ozone layer and improve the

understanding of the interactions of climate change,

ozone depletion, tropospheric pollution, and other

atmospheric issues

Increase knowledge of the interactions among

emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, and

transformations of atmospheric pollutants, and their

response to air quality management strategies

1 See Chapter 2 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for a detailed discussion.

2 Any minor discrepancies within this table and between this table and others are due to rounding.
196

Appendix B

GOAL 3 TOTAL 253.8 245.4 262.6

GOAL 2 TOTAL 305.6 296.4 302.0

Goal 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in

the future

Focus 2.4

Focus 2.5

Focus 3.1

Focus 3.2

Focus 3.3

Focus 3.4

Focus 3.5

130.2

3.0

43.1

80.1

6.4

85.3

38.9

127.0

3.0

42.2

75.4

6.2

86.1

35.5

128.4

3.0

42.4

75.6

6.1

93.7

44.8

USDA, DOC,

DOE, DOI,

NASA, NSF,

SI

DOE

DOC, DOE,

NASA, NSF

DOE, DOI,

NASA, NSF

NASA, NSF

DOC, DOE,

NASA, NSF

DOC, DOE,

NASA, NSF

Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover

and use, and biological/ecological processes by helping

to quantify net emissions of carbon dioxide, methane,

and other greenhouse gases, thereby improving the

evaluation of carbon sequestration strategies and

alternative response options

Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions

and related scenarios for conducting “If..., then...”

analyses in cooperation with CCTP

Improve characterization of the circulation of the

atmosphere and oceans and their interactions through

fluxes of energy and materials

Improve understanding of key “feedbacks” including

changes in the amount and distribution of water vapor,

extent of ice and the Earth’s reflectivity, cloud properties,

and biological and ecological systems

Increase understanding of the conditions that could give

rise to events such as rapid changes in ocean circulation

due to changes in temperature and salinity gradients

Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of

processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce

uncertainty in projections of climate sensitivity, changes

in climate, and related conditions such as sea level

Improve national capacity to develop and apply climate

models

TABLE 1 (CONTINUED)

Budgets ($M)2

Focus FY 2007 FY 2008

Area Description (from CCSP Strategic Plan)

1 FY 2006 Estimate Request Agencies

Goal 2 (continued)
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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

Goal 5 Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities

related to climate variability and change

GOAL 4 TOTAL 169.8 161.1 156.8

TABLE 1 (CONTINUED)

Budgets ($M)2

Focus FY 2007 FY 2008

Area Description (from CCSP Strategic Plan)

1 FY 2006 Estimate Request Agencies

Goal 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human

systems to climate and related global changes

Focus 4.1

Focus 4.2

Focus 4.3

Focus 5.1

Focus 5.2

Focus 5.3

65.1

56.4

48.3

70.6

63.5

9.7

62.3

56.3

42.5

60.0

66.9

8.3

63.8

55.5

37.5

61.6

66.1

8.4

USDA, DOE,

DOI, EPA,

NASA, NSF,

SI

HHS, EPA,

NSF

USDA, DOC,

DOE, NASA,

NSF, SI

USDA, DOE,

DOI, DOT,

EPA, NASA,

NSF, SI

USDA, DOC,

DOI, USAID,

EPA, NASA,

NSF

USDA, DOI,

NASA, NSF,

SI

Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems

and economic sectors to global climate variability and

change

Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating

adaptation options, in cooperation with mission-oriented

agencies and other resource managers

Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems

(including managed ecosystems such as croplands)

and human infrastructure interact over long time periods

Support informed public discussion of issues of

particular importance to U.S. decisions by conducting

research and providing scientific synthesis and

assessment reports

Support adaptive management and planning for

resources and physical infrastructure sensitive to climate

variability and change; build new partnerships with

public and private sector entities that can benefit both

research and decisionmaking

Support policymaking by conducting comparative

analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and

environmental consequences of response options

CCSP PROGRAM TOTAL 1,198.0 1,164.0 1,177.8

GOAL 5 TOTAL 143.8 135.2 136.1
198

Appendix B

TABLE 2. FY 2006-2008 CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

BUDGET BY GOAL AND PARTICIPATING AGENCY/DEPARTMENT

[DISCRETIONARY BUDGET AUTHORITY IN $M]

Goal 1

Goal 2

Goal 3

Goal 4

Goal 5

TOTAL

Goal 1

Goal 2

Goal 3

Goal 4

Goal 5

TOTAL

Goal 1

Goal 2

Goal 3

Goal 4

Goal 5

TOTAL

1NASA observing systems.

Note: Any minor discrepancies within this table and between this table and others are due to rounding.

DOE

48.6

32.4

32.2

15.4

1.0

129.6

48.6

32.4

25.0

19.2

1.0

126.2

48.3

32.4

25.6

22.9

1.0

130.2

NASA

76.6

143.5

124.1

21.0

60.1

425.3

81.7

144.1

120.9

19.6

57.8

424.1

81.6

156.0

129.3

21.6

71.4

459.9

DOC

138.3

43.4

47.4

2.0

13.7

244.8

139.7

37.6

42.1

3.8

12.5

235.7

141.1

38.0

43.2

4.5

8.2

235.0

NSF

43.1

60.6

57.6

37.8

9.3

208.4

42.2

60.2

56.1

37.5

9.3

205.3

39.6

57.3

53.6

37.1

9.3

196.9

USDA

0.0

18.3

0.0

16.4

22.8

57.5

0.0

18.5

0.0

16.4

24.5

59.4

0.0

18.4

0.0

17.1

25.6

61.0

EPA

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.9

12.0

16.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.3

11.9

16.2

0.8

0.0

0.0

6.5

11.3

18.6

DOI

12.6

2.9

1.3

7.1

2.5

26.4

12.6

2.9

1.3

7.1

2.5

26.4

12.6

2.8

2.1

6.9

2.4

26.8

DOT

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.7

1.2

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.7

1.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.6

0.9

HHS

0.0

0.0

0.0

49.0

0.0

49.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

50.0

0.0

50.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

50.0

0.0

50.0

USAID

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

13.0

13.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

14.0

14.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

13.0

13.0

SI

1.1

0.4

0.0

3.2

1.0

5.7

1.1

0.4

0.0

3.2

1.0

5.7

1.1

0.4

0.0

3.2

1.0

5.7

Res

Subtotal

320.3

302.0

262.6

156.8

136.1

1,177.8

325.9

296.4

245.4

161.1

135.2

1,164.0

325.1

305.6

253.8

169.8

143.8

1,198.0

Obs1

Subtotal

344.0

118.2

158.0

38.2

0.0

658.4

294.5

168.3

159.7

36.5

0.0

659.0

196.1

130.1

136.0

30.7

0.0

492.9

TOTAL

664.3

420.2

420.6

195.0

136.1

1,836.2

620.4

464.7

405.1

197.6

135.2

1,823.0

521.2

435.7

389.8

200.5

143.8

1,690.9

FY 2008 Request

FY 2007 Estimate

FY 2006

Research
199

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T TABLE 3. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM: FY 2006-2008 BUDGET BY AGENCY

[DISCRETIONARY BUDGET AUTHORITY IN $M]

FY 2006 FY 2007 Estimate FY 2008 Request

Agency USGCRP CCRI CCSP USGCRP CCRI CCSP USGCRP CCRI CCSP

USDA 53 8 61 50 8 58 48 8 56

DOC1,2 201 34 235 190 46 236 199 46 245

DOE 102 28 130 103 24 127 106 24 130

HHS 50 0 50 50 0 50 49 0 49

DOI 27 0 27 26 0 26 27 0 27DOT 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1USAID 0 13 13 0 14 14 0 13 13EPA3 19 0 19 16 0 16 17 0 17

NASA4,5 421 38 460 389 35 424 390 35 425

NSF 172 25 197 180 25 205 183 25 208

SI 6 0 6 6 0 6 6 0 6

Scientific 1,052 147 1,199 1,011 152 1,163 1,025 152 1,178

Research TotalNASA Space-Based 436 57 493 566 94 659 618 40 659ObservationsCCSP Total6,7 1,487 203 1,691 1,576 246 1,822

President’s Request 1,644 193 1,836

Notes:1 Starting in FY 2006, funding to NOAA’s laboratories is included in the CCSP budget cross-cut. This is a result of the evolution of NOAA’s role in CCSP. 2 For FY 2008, NOAA made a decision to report activities for the NOAA climate strategic goal, as defined in the NOAA Strategic Plan (2005), to ensure consistent reporting and to provide the most accurate picture of its climate funding to date.

The climate goal includes both research and operations funding under the following offices: Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Marine Fisheries Service, the National Weather Service, and the National Environmental Satellite,Data, and Information Service.

3 Entries given in FY 2006 and FY 2007 for EPA are “enacted” budgetary amounts.4 NASA funding levels presented in this table do not reflect full-cost accounting (Corporate General and Administrative and Institutional Investment funding has been removed). 5 NASA has revised the set of projects it counts as supporting CCSP goals. The funding levels presented here do not include the Ground Network and Research Range assets or Congressional interest items, but include activities not previously

counted, such as the NPOESS Preparatory Project, portions (33%) of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, as well as portions of the High-End Computing and Scientific Computing projects. 

6 Operational space-based, surface, and in situ observing systems and programs are not included in the CCSP budget cross-cut, but contribute to achieving CCSP goals. Because DOD research activities are conducted for defense-related

missions, they are not included in the CCSP budget cross-cut; however, related DOD research contributes to CCSP goals.

7 Due to recent changes in CCSP/CCRI activities and priorities, additional ongoing activities in the Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance program are reported under CCSP and CCRI beginning in FY 2006.

* Any minor discrepancies within this table and between this table and others are due to rounding.
200

Appendix B

TABLE 4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM:

FY 2006-2008 USGCRP SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH BUDGET BY CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

[DISCRETIONARY BUDGET AUTHORITY IN $M]

Atmospheric Climate Carbon Water Land Human

Agency Composition Variability Cycle Cycle Ecosystems Use Contributions1 TOTAL

USDA 18.3 – 11.2 4.9 14.9 0.1 – 49.4

DOC 26.2 148.9 5.1 9.9 2.0 – 6.9 199.0

DOE 12.6 64.6 10.5 – 13.2 – 5.1 106.0

HHS ––– ––– 49.0 49.0

DOI 1.8 5.4 1.2 4.3 5.9 7.3 0.5 26.4

DOT 0.5 –– –––– 0.5

EPA 6.2 –– – 4.9 – 5.8 16.9

NASA 77.0 83.4 48.9 92.9 40.1 19.7 28.1 390.1

NSF 20.7 79.4 31.2 17.4 20.5 2.8 11.2 183.2

SI – 1.3 0.3 – 3.3 0.8 – 5.7

USDA 19.6 – 10.2 5.3 15.0 1.3 – 51.4

DOC 21.0 146.5 4.9 9.5 1.5 – 6.6 190.0

DOE 12.6 57.2 10.5 – 17.0 – 5.1 102.4

HHS ––– ––– 50.0 50.0

DOI 1.8 5.4 1.2 4.3 5.9 7.3 0.5 26.4

DOT 0.3 –– –––– 0.3

EPA2 5.9 –– – 4.3 – 6.0 16.2

NASA 79.9 80.6 46.2 93.9 39.7 20.3 28.4 389.0

NSF 20.7 78.4 30.2 16.4 20.5 2.8 11.2 180.2

SI – 1.3 0.3 – 3.3 0.8 – 5.7

USDA 20.7 – 10.3 5.4 15.7 1.3 – 53.4

DOC 21.8 155.6 5.2 9.9 1.5 – 6.9 200.9

DOE 12.8 55.5 10.1 – 20.5 – 3.5 102.4

HHS ––– ––– 50.0 50.0

DOI 1.8 5.0 1.3 4.3 6.2 7.7 0.5 26.8

DOT 0.3 –– –––– 0.3

EPA2 7.2 –– – 6.5 – 4.9 18.6

NASA 85.1 85.4 50.6 94.4 45.3 22.0 38.8 421.6

NSF 19.5 74.3 25.0 18.0 21.1 2.8 11.2 171.9

SI – 1.3 0.3 – 3.3 0.8 – 5.7

1 Prior to FY 2007, NASA linked the Applied Sciences and the Education and Outreach programs to USGCRP Focus Areas, but not to CCSP research elements;

the current table identifies these programs as contributing to the CCSP Human Contributions and Responses element for the three fiscal years addressed.

2 Entries given in FY 2006 and FY 2007 for EPA are “enacted” budgetary amounts.

Note: Any minor discrepancies within this table and between this table and others are due to rounding.

TOTAL 163.3 383.0 108.4 129.4 104.8 30.7 106.6 1,026.2

FY 2008 USGCRP Research Elements

FY 2007 USGCRP Research Elements

TOTAL 161.8 369.4 103.5 129.4 107.2 32.5 107.8 1,011.6

FY 2006 USGCRP Research Elements

TOTAL 169.2 377.1 102.8 132.0 120.1 34.6 115.8 1,051.6
201

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

TABLE 5. FY 2006-2008 BUDGET

FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE (CCRI)

FY 2007 FY 2008

Agency Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

USDA Carbon Cycle Research (ARS) 0.6 0.6 0.6

Carbon Cycle Research (FS) 3.3 3.5 3.5

Carbon Inventory and Analysis (FS) 1.1 1.1 1.1

Carbon Management Research (FS) 1.6 1.9 1.9

Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change (ARS) 1.0 0.9 0.9

U.S. Department of Agriculture CCRI Total 7.6 8.0 8.0

DOC Competitive Research Program 34.1 45.7 45.8

Department of Commerce CCRI Total 34.1 45.7 45.8

DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program 5.7 5.7 5.6

CCRI Climate Modeling 14.3 12.2 12.2

CCRI Carbon Cycle 3.1 2.9 2.9

CCRI Integrated Assessment 4.8 3.0 3.0

Department of Energy CCRI Total 27.9 23.8 23.7

DOT DOT-wide Climate Change Center 0.6 0.7 0.7

Department of Transportation CCRI Total 0.6 0.7 0.7

USAID Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) 13.0 14.0 13.0

U.S. Agency for International Development CCRI Total 13.0 14.0 13.0

NASA Atmospheric Composition 2.4 2.6 2.7

Science Climate Variability 4.6 4.8 4.9

Carbon Cycle 6.3 6.5 6.6

Water Cycle 6.2 6.4 6.4

Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems 1.9 2.1 2.2

Land-Cover/Land-Use Change 0.9 1.1 1.2

Human Contributions and Responses1 16.1 11.6 11.4

NASA Atmospheric Composition 28.3 46.8 20.1

Space Climate Variability 28.3 46.8 20.1

National Aeronautics and Space Administration CCRI Total2 95.0 128.7 75.6

NSF Carbon Fluxes and Cycle 10.0 10.0 10.0

Human Dimensions of Climate Change 5.0 5.0 5.0

Modeling Strategy 10.0 10.0 10.0

National Science Foundation CCRI Total 25.0 25.0 25.0

Total Climate Change Research Initiative3 203.2 245.9

President’s Request 191.8

1 Prior to FY 2007, NASA linked the Applied Sciences and the Education and Outreach programs to USGCRP Focus Areas, but not to CCSP research

elements; the current table identifies these programs as contributing to the CCSP Human Contributions and Responses element for the three fiscal

years addressed.

2 NASA has revised the set of projects it counts as supporting CCRI. The funding levels presented include activities that were previously not counted,

including portions of the High-End Computing and Scientific Computing projects. The funding decrease from 2007 to 2008 is primarily due to the

planned ramp-down of resources for the Glory mission, a major contributor to NASA CCRI funding, which is completing development in preparation for

a December 2008 launch.

3 Activities in the Federal Aviation Administration – Research, Engineering, and Development account have been included under CCRI in past. Due to

changes in CCSP/CCRI activities and priorities and changes within DOT, these activities are no longer considered part of CCRI.

Note: Any minor discrepancies within this table and between this table and others are due to rounding.
202

Appendix B

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Global Carbon Cycle 10.3 10.2 11.2

Agricultural Research Service 2.6 2.4 1.8

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service 0.4 0.4 2.0

Economic Research Service 0.1 0.1 0.1

Forest Service 7.2 7.3 7.3

Water Cycle 5.4 5.3 4.9

Agricultural Research Service 4.0 3.8 3.4

Forest Service 1.4 1.5 1.5

Land-Use / Land-Cover Change 1.3 1.3 0.1

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service 1.3 1.3 0.1

Understanding Atmospheric Composition and Chemistry 18.3 17.2 15.9

Agricultural Research Service 18.3 17.2 15.9

Understanding Ecosystems Changes 15.5 14.9 14.5

Agricultural Research Service 11.8 11.1 10.4

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service 0.2 0.2 0.5

Forest Service 3.5 3.6 3.6

Support the UV-B Monitoring Network 2.4 2.4 2.4

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service 2.4 2.4 2.4

Other National Research Initiative 0.2 0.1 0.4

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service 0.2 0.1 0.4

Carbon Cycle Research (ARS) 0.6 0.6 0.6

Carbon Cycle Research (FS) 3.3 3.5 3.5

Carbon Inventory and Analysis (FS) 1.1 1.1 1.1

Carbon Management Research (FS) 1.6 1.9 1.9

Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change (ARS) 1.0 0.9 0.9

Department of Agriculture Total 61.0 59.4

President’s Request 57.4

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the interim Appropriations acts,

Department of Agriculture CCSP activities are funded under Title I–Agricultural Programs, within the ARS,

CSREES Research and Education Activities, and ERS accounts; and under Title II–Conservation Programs, within

the NRCS Conservation Operations account. In the interim Appropriations acts, U.S. Department of Agriculture

CCSP activities are funded in the USDA FS section under Title II–Related Agencies, within the FS Forest Research

account.

USGCRP TOTAL 53.4 51.4 49.4

USGCRP

CCRI

CCRI TOTAL 7.6 8.0 8.0
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

FY 2007 FY 2008

DOC Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

NOAA Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes 45.8 42.6 42.7

NOAA Competitive Research Program 70.6 70.6 86.5

NOAA Climate Data and Information 2.4 4.4 8.2

NOAA Climate Operations 0.4 0.9 0.9

NOAA Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity 1.5 1.5 2.0

NOAA Operational Climate Programs 80.1 70.1 53.7

NIST Measurements and Standards for the CCSP 0.0 0.0 5.0

NOAA Competitive Research Program 34.1 45.7 45.8

Department of Commerce Total 235.0 235.7

President’s Request 244.8

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In Appropriations Committee reports, funding

for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CCSP activities is specified in the Laboratories and

Cooperative Institutes, Competitive Research Programs, Climate Operations, and Climate Data and Information

lines of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research budget; in the Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity line of

the National Marine Fisheries Service budget; the Data Centers and Information Services line of the National

Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) budget; and the Local Warnings and Forecasts and

Central Forecast Guidance lines of the National Weather Service (NWS) budget within NOAA’s Operations,

Research, and Facilities account. In addition, a portion of NOAA’s climate funding is found within the Procurement,

Acquisition, and Construction account for NESDIS and NWS. Funding for National Institute of Standards and

Technology CCSP activities is specified in the Scientific and Technical Research and Services account.

USGCRP TOTAL 200.9 190.0 199.0

USGCRP

CCRI

CCRI TOTAL 34.1 45.7 45.8

Notes:

1) Starting in FY 2006, funding to DOC/NOAA’s Laboratories was included as part of DOC/NOAA CCSP activities. This is a result of the evolution of

NOAA’s role in CCSP.

2) DOC/NOAA previously reported its climate research activities under its Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) line office and the National

Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) line office. For FY 2008, NOAA made a decision to report activities for the NOAA climate strategic goal, as defined in

the NOAA Strategic Plan (2005), to ensure consistent reporting and provide the most accurate picture of its climate funding to date. The climate goal

includes both research and operations funding under the following offices: OAR, NMFS, the National Weather Service, and the National Environmental

Satellite, Data, and Information Service.

3) Past reports have erroneously presented all of DOC/NOAA’s CCSP funding in the Operations, Research, and Facilities (ORF) account. Climate-related

activities have been and continue to be funded in both the ORF account and the Procurement, Acquisition, and Construction (PAC) account.

4) In FY 2008, DOC includes funding for new measurement and standards-related activities that DOC/NIST will undertake to support CCSP.
204

Appendix B

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Climate Change Modeling 12.7 13.0 20.3

Climate Forcing 67.6 69.2 69.3

Climate Change Response 22.1 20.2 16.4

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program 5.7 5.7 5.6

Climate Modeling 14.3 12.2 12.2

Carbon Cycle 3.1 2.9 2.9

Integrated Assessment Research 4.8 3.0 3.0

Department of Energy Total 130.3 126.2

President’s Request 129.7

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

Department of Energy CCSP activities are funded under Title III–Department of Energy, within the Energy Supply,

Research, and Development Activities account. Also in these Appropriations Committee reports, funding for

Department of Energy CCSP activities is included as part of the appropriation for Biological and Environmental

Research.

USGCRP TOTAL 102.4 102.4 106.0

CCRI

USGCRP

CCRI TOTAL 27.9 23.8 23.7
205

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

NCI Health Effects of UV Radiation 36.0 36.0 35.0

NIEHS Human Health Effects of Exposure 13.0 13.0 13.0

NIAMS Health Effects of UV Radiation 1.0 1.0 1.0

Department of Health and Human Services Total 50.0 50.0

President’s Request 49.0

DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

FY 2007 FY 2008

HHS Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

Department of Health and Human Services CCSP activities are funded under the National Institutes of Health

section of Title II–Department of Health and Human Services.

USGCRP TOTAL 50.0 50.0 49.0

USGCRP

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

FY 2007 FY 2008

DOI Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

USGS Earth Surface Dynamics 4.5 4.4 4.4

USGS Global Change Hydrology (Hydroclimatology) 5.0 5.4 5.4

USGS Land Characterization Research and Applications 5.6 5.4 5.4

USGS Satellite Data Management and Dissemination 6.9 6.6 6.6

USGS Terrestrial and Coastal Ecosystem Changes 0.3 0.3 0.3

USGS Water Energy and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) 4.5 4.3 4.3

Department of the Interior Total 26.8 26.4

President’s Request 26.4

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

Department of the Interior CCSP activities are funded under Title I–Department of the Interior. Funding for U.S.

Geological Survey CCSP programs is included within the USGS Survey, Investigations, and Research account.

USGCRP

USGCRP TOTAL 26.8 26.4 26.4
206

Appendix B

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. Since 2000, the Department’s climate change

research has been funded by contributions from eight of DOT’s operating administrations and the Office of the

Secretary.

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Partnership for Air Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction (PARTNER) 0.3 0.3 0.5

DOT-wide Climate Change Center 0.6 0.7 0.7

Department of Transportation Total 0.9 1.0

President’s Request 1.2

USGCRP TOTAL 0.3 0.3 0.5

CCRI

USGCRP

CCRI TOTAL 0.6 0.7 0.7

Notes:

1) The 2006 and 2007 funding for Federal Highway Administration – Federal-Aid Highways was less than $500,000. 

2) The 2006 and 2007 funding for Federal Aviation Administration – Research, Engineering, and Development was less than $500,000. 

3) Federal Transit Administration - Research and University Research Centers is FTA's support for DOT's Center for Climate Change. This program has

been provided funding in the past; however, it was not reported because funding has been less than $500,000.

4) Activities in the Federal Aviation Administration – Research, Engineering, and Development account have been included under CCRI in past. Due to

changes in CCSP/CCRI activities and priorities and changes within DOT, these activities are no longer considered part of CCRI.
207

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) 13.0 14.0 13.0

U.S. Agency for International Development Total 13.0 14.0

President’s Request 13.0

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports, U.S.

Agency for International Development CCSP activities are funded under Title II–Bilateral Economic Assistance: United

States Agency for International Development.

CCRI

CCRI TOTAL 13.0 14.0 13.0

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Air Quality Research and Assessment 7.2 5.9 6.2

Ecosystem Research and Assessment 6.1 4.0 4.4

Human Health Research and Assessment 0.2 1.5 1.6

Water Quality Research and Assessment 0.4 0.3 0.5

Research and Assessments of the Integrated Effects of Global Change 4.7 4.5 4.2

Environmental Protection Agency Total 18.6 16.2

President’s Request 16.9

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

Environmental Protection Agency CCSP activities are funded under the EPA section of Title III–Independent

Agencies, within the Science and Technology account. Appropriations Committee report language may specify more

directly the funding for global change research.

USGCRP TOTAL 18.6 16.2 16.9

USGCRP

Note:

1) Entries given in FY 2006 and FY 2007 for EPA are “enacted” budgetary amounts.
208

Appendix B

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Atmospheric Composition 85.1 79.9 77.0

Climate Variability 85.4 80.6 83.4

Carbon Cycle 50.6 46.2 48.9

Water Cycle 94.4 93.9 92.9

Ecosystems 45.3 39.7 40.1

Land-Cover / Land-Use Change 22.0 20.3 19.7

Human Contributions and Responses 38.8 28.4 28.1

USGCRP Scientific Research Sub-Total 421.6 389.0 390.1

Atmospheric Composition 51.6 48.9 50.7

Climate Variability 137.3 183.9 168.8

Carbon Cycle 84.0 141.3 119.3

Water Cycle 96.5 106.8 174.5

Ecosystems 36.1 41.4 47.4

Land-Cover / Land-Use Change 30.3 43.0 57.7

USGCRP Space-Based Observations Sub-Total 435.8 565.3 618.4

Atmospheric Composition 2.4 2.6 2.7

Climate Variability 4.6 4.8 4.9

Carbon Cycle 6.3 6.5 6.6

Water Cycle 6.2 6.4 6.4

Ecosystems 1.9 2.1 2.2

Land-Cover / Land-Use Change 0.9 1.1 1.2

Human Contributions and Responses 16.1 11.6 11.4

CCRI Scientific Research Sub-Total 38.4 35.1 35.4

Atmospheric Composition 28.3 46.8 20.1

Climate Variability 28.3 46.8 20.1

CCRI Space-Based Observations Sub-Total 56.6 93.6 40.2

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Total 952.4 1,083.0

President’s Request 1,084.1

USGCRP TOTAL 857.4 954.3 1,008.5

CCRI

USGCRP

CCRI TOTAL 95.0 128.7 75.6

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

National Aeronautics and Space Administration CCSP activities are funded under NASA Earth science and technology

programs within Title III–Independent Agencies, as part of the Science, Aeronautics, and Technology account.
209

O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

FY 2007 FY 2008

Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

Atmospheric Composition 19.5 20.7 20.7

Climate Variability and Change 74.3 78.4 79.4

Carbon Cycle 25.0 30.2 31.2

Water Cycle 18.0 16.4 17.4

Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems 21.1 20.5 20.5

Land Use / Land Cover 2.8 2.8 2.8

Human Dimensions of Climate Change 11.2 11.2 11.2

Carbon Fluxes and Cycle 10.0 10.0 10.0

Human Dimensions of Climate Change 5.0 5.0 5.0

Modeling Strategy 10.0 10.0 10.0

National Science Foundation Total 196.9 205.2

President’s Request 208.2

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

National Science Foundation CCSP activities are supported under the NSF section of Title III–Independent Agencies

within the NSF Research and Related Expenses account.

USGCRP TOTAL 171.9 180.2 183.2

CCRI

USGCRP

CCRI TOTAL 25.0 25.0 25.0

NASA Notes:

1) NASA has revised the set of programs and projects it counts as supporting CCSP goals. Beginning in FY 2006, the funding levels

presented do not include the Ground Network and Research Range assets or Congressional interest items but do include activities

not previously counted such as the NPOESS Preparatory Project, portions (33%) of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM),

and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), as well as portions of the High-End Computing and Scientific

Computing projects.

2) NASA has also revised the set of projects it counts as supporting CCRI. The funding levels presented include activities that were

previously not counted, including portions of the High-End Computing and Scientific Computing projects. The funding decrease

from 2007 to 2008 is primarily due to the planned ramp-down of resources for the Glory mission, a major contributor to NASA

CCRI funding, which is completing development in preparation for a December 2008 launch.

3) Prior to FY 2007, NASA linked the Applied Sciences and the Education and Outreach programs to USGCRP Focus Areas, but not

to CCSP research elements; the current table identifies these programs as contributing to the CCSP Human Contributions and

Responses element for the three fiscal years addressed.
210

Appendix B

SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION

FY 2007 FY 2008

SI Program Title FY 2006 Estimate Request

NMNH Archaebiology Program (Human Ecology History) 0.3 0.3 0.3

NMNH Paleoecological Effects of Climate Change,

including Evolution of Terrestrial Ecosystems 0.9 0.9 0.9

NMNH Global Volcanism Program 0.2 0.2 0.2

NMNH Human Origins Program (Human Ecological History) 0.3 0.3 0.3

NMNH Nile Delta Subsidences / Sea-Level Rise 0.2 0.2 0.2

NMNH Tropical Biodiversity Program 0.6 0.6 0.6

SERC Ecological Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation 0.2 0.2 0.2

SERC Effects of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on Ecosystems 0.3 0.3 0.3

STRI Temperate and Tropical Forest Canopy Biology 0.4 0.4 0.4

STRI Tropical Forest Science 0.9 0.9 0.9

STRI Biodynamics of Forest Fragments 0.1 0.1 0.1

STRI Tropical Agroforestry 0.2 0.2 0.2

NZP Migratory Birds 0.3 0.3 0.3

NZP Predicting Species Responses 0.7 0.7 0.7

MAB Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity (MAB) Program 0.1 0.1 0.1

Smithsonian Institution Total 5.7 5.7

President’s Request 5.7

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Appropriations Committee reports,

Smithsonian Institution CCSP activities are funded in the Smithsonian section of Title II–Related Agencies, within

the Salaries and Expenses account. Appropriations Committee reports specify funding for a Sciences line item

component of this account, which includes CCSP programs.

USGCRP TOTAL 5.7 5.7 5.7

USGCRP
211

N O T E S
212

N O T E S
William J. Brennan

Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program;

and Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change

Research

Jack Kaye, Vice Chair

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Thomas Armstrong

U.S. Geological Survey

Allen Dearry

Department of Health and Human Services

Jerry Elwood

Department of Energy

Mary Glackin

Department of Commerce

Patricia Gruber

Department of Defense

William Hohenstein

Department of Agriculture

Linda Lawson

Department of Transportation

Jarvis Moyers

National Science Foundation

Patrick Neale

Smithsonian Institution

Jacqueline Schafer

U.S. Agency for International Development

Joel Scheraga

Environmental Protection Agency

Harlan Watson

Department of State

EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND OTHER LIAISONS

George Banks

Council on Environmental Quality

Melissa Brandt

Office of Management and Budget

Stephen Eule

Director, Climate Change Technology Program

Howard Frumkin

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Katharine Gebbie

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Margaret R. McCalla

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Gene Whitney

Office of Science and Technology Policy

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM and

SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

This document describes the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) for FY 2008. It provides a summary

of the achievements of the program, an analysis of the progress made, and budgetary information. It thereby

responds to the annual reporting requirements of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 102,

P. L. 101-606). It does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or make

any findings of fact that could serve as predicates for regulatory action. Agencies must comply with required

statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any statements in this document or by the CCSP as

a basis for regulatory action.

Department of Energy

COVERmrepX.indd 2 COVER mr epX.indd 2 
U.S. Climate Change Science Program

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C. 20006 USA

+1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax)

http://www.climatescience.gov/

25

Cert no. SW-COC-1530

COVERmrepX.indd 1 COVER mr epX.indd 1