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IPM Analysis of Individual Building Blocks for 111(d)

This analysis estimates the impacts on the power sector of applying various combinations of the 111(d)

building blocks.  We analyzed each block in isolation, and blocks 1/2 together with and without blocks 3

and 4.  All of these scenarios are comparable to Option 1 State. These scenarios are summarized in the

table below.

Scenario Building Block

1 2 3 4

A     

B       

C        

D    

E    

F    

G    

For each of these scenarios, we developed state goals that are consistent with the building blocks

included in the scenario.  For each block, the CO2 reduction mechanisms embedded in the state goals

and the generation that qualifies for contribution to those goals are summarized below.

Block CO2 Reduction Mechanism Embedded in

State Goals

Generation Able to Comply with State

Goals

1 6% heat rate improvement for coal steam Coal steam

2 Re‐dispatch to existing NGCC up to 70%

in each state

Fossil steam

Existing NGCC

3

Generation from non‐hydro renewables

(existing and new) and nuclear (under

construction, at‐risk) included in

denominator

Fossil steam

Non‐hydro renewables (new, existing)

Nuclear (under construction, at‐risk)

4

Demand‐side energy efficiency included

in denominator

Fossil steam

EE sales reductions
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Table 1. CO2 Projected CO2 Emissions Impacts and Annualized Compliance Costs (billions of 2011$)

CO2 Emissions:

Percent Change from 2005

CO2 Emissions:

Percent Change from Base

Case

Incremental Compliance

Cost (billion $) Average Cost ($/to

2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 

Option 1 State  ‐27%  ‐29%  ‐30%  ‐18%  ‐23%  ‐25% 7.4 5.5 8.8 19.4 10.9 1 only  ‐15%  ‐12%  ‐11%  ‐4%  ‐4%  ‐4%  ‐2.2  ‐1.4  ‐0.8  ‐26.1  ‐16.1  2 only  ‐20%  ‐18%  ‐17%  ‐10%  ‐10%  ‐10% 6.7 7.6 7.2 31.1 32.5 3 only  ‐15%  ‐14%  ‐14%  ‐4%  ‐6%  ‐7% 0.9 0.4 4.3 10.2 3.2 4 only  ‐14%  ‐16%  ‐17%  ‐4%  ‐8%  ‐10% 1.9 2.9 3.8 24.2 16.3 1 and 2  ‐22%  ‐20%  ‐19%  ‐12%  ‐13%  ‐13% 4.4 4.6 9.8 17.5 16.3 1, 2, and 3  ‐25%  ‐24%  ‐24%  ‐15%  ‐17%  ‐18% 6.6 5.9 10.0 19.7 15.3 1, 2, and 4  ‐25%  ‐26%  ‐26%  ‐16%  ‐19%  ‐20% 8.3 3.9 4.7 24.1 8.9 

Table 2. Projected Capacity Changes (GW)

Coal Capacity in Service

(GW)

Incremental Coal

Uneconomic to Maintain

(GW)

Change in New CC Builds

(GW)

Change in New Non‐

Renewable Builds (

2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 

Option 1 State 195 193 191 49 50 50 23  ‐3  ‐32 12 9 1 only 244 244 241  ‐2  ‐2  ‐2  ‐2  ‐1  ‐2  ‐1  ‐1  2 only 212 212 209 31 31 30 19 20 15 1 2 3 only 230 229 224 12 12 14 5 10 15 10 16 4 only 231 230 227 13 14 14  ‐4  ‐30  ‐63  ‐1  ‐5  1 and 2 211 211 209 32 32 31 18 20 17 0 1 1, 2, and 3 203 203 200 40 40 39 28 34 37 22 30 1, 2, and 4 209 209 206 35 35 35 8  ‐18  ‐50  ‐2  ‐5  
   

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Table 3. Power Sector Gas Use and Projected Change in Delivered Natural Gas Price

  

Percent Change in Power

Sector Gas Use

Percent Change in Power

Sector Delivered Gas Price

   2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030

Option 1 State 14% 7%  ‐3% 11%  ‐3% 0%

1 only  ‐2%  ‐1%  ‐1%  ‐2%  ‐1% 0%

2 only 27% 28% 26% 12% 9% 7%

3 only 6% 8% 10% 4% 1% 6%

4 only  ‐5%  ‐15%  ‐23% 1%  ‐7%  ‐7%

1 and 2 21% 25% 26% 11% 6% 10%

1, 2, and 3 20% 22% 23% 11% 5% 9%

1, 2, and 4 18% 6%  ‐8% 13%  ‐4%  ‐4%

Table 4. Power Sector Coal Use and Projected Change in Minemouth Coal Price

  

Percent Change in Power

Sector Coal Use

Percent Change in

Minemouth Coal Price

   2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030

Option 1 State  ‐27%  ‐31%  ‐32%  ‐16%  ‐17%  ‐18%

1 only  ‐5%  ‐5%  ‐4%  ‐3%  ‐2%  ‐1%

2 only  ‐22%  ‐23%  ‐23%  ‐7%  ‐8%  ‐10%

3 only  ‐6%  ‐9%  ‐12%  ‐7%  ‐8%  ‐12%

4 only  ‐4%  ‐6%  ‐6%  ‐2%  ‐3%  ‐4%

1 and 2  ‐22%  ‐25%  ‐28%  ‐11%  ‐10%  ‐11%

1, 2, and 3  ‐25%  ‐28%  ‐30%  ‐16%  ‐17%  ‐18%

1, 2, and 4  ‐27%  ‐29%  ‐25%  ‐10%  ‐12%  ‐12%

Table 5. Option 1 State Block 1 Only: Modeled CO2 Emission Rate Constraints (Adjusted MWh‐Weighted‐

Average Pounds of CO2 Per Net MWh from Affected Generation Included in State Goals)

State

2020 and

Beyond

Alabama 2,128

Arizona 2,132

Arkansas 2,140

California 2,551

Colorado 2,092

Connecticut 2,957

Delaware 2,009

Florida 2,152

Georgia 2,157

Idaho   

Illinois 2,194

Indiana 2,029
   

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Iowa 2,116

Kansas 2,222

Kentucky 2,036

Louisiana 2,184

Maine   

Maryland 2,031

Massachusetts 1,958

Michigan 2,121

Minnesota 2,179

Mississippi 2,344

Missouri 1,959

Montana 2,332

Nebraska 2,050

Nevada 2,138

New Hampshire 2,239

New Jersey 2,294

New Mexico 2,200

New York 2,092

North Carolina 1,935

North Dakota 2,226

Ohio 1,999

Oklahoma 2,166

Oregon 1,955

Pennsylvania 2,005

Rhode Island   

South Carolina 2,034

South Dakota 2,130

Tennessee 2,110

Texas 2,104

Utah 1,947

Virginia 2,287

Washington 2,286

West Virginia 1,940

Wisconsin 2,221

Wyoming 2,191

Table 6. Option 1 State Block 2 Only: Modeled CO2 Emission Rate Constraints (Adjusted MWh‐Weighted‐

Average Pounds of CO2 Per Net MWh from Affected Generation Included in State Goals)

State

2020 and

Beyond

Alabama 1,378
   

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Arizona 901

Arkansas 1,214

California 896

Colorado 1,594

Connecticut 811

Delaware 1,016

Florida 901

Georgia 1,345

Idaho 858

Illinois 2,001

Indiana 1,953

Iowa 1,949

Kansas 2,320

Kentucky 2,110

Louisiana 1,308

Maine 848

Maryland 1,970

Massachusetts 888

Michigan 1,716

Minnesota 1,434

Mississippi 848

Missouri 1,888

Montana 2,481

Nebraska 2,056

Nevada 890

New Hampshire 878

New Jersey 973

New Mexico 1,503

New York 975

North Carolina 1,385

North Dakota 2,368

Ohio 1,810

Oklahoma 1,215

Oregon 862

Pennsylvania 1,604

Rhode Island 918

South Carolina 1,587

South Dakota 1,500

Tennessee 1,900

Texas 1,258

Utah 1,637

Virginia 1,162

Washington 995
   

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West Virginia 2,064

Wisconsin 1,708

Wyoming 2,287

Table 7. Option 1 State Block 3 Only: Modeled CO2 Emission Rate Constraints (Adjusted MWh‐Weighted‐

Average Pounds of CO2 Per Net MWh from Affected Generation Included in State Goals)

State 2020 2025

2030 and

Beyond

Alabama 1,968 1,829 1,664

Arizona 1,936 1,889 1,841

Arkansas 2,034 1,965 1,892

California 341 320 320

Colorado 1,812 1,703 1,692

Connecticut 365 270 200

Delaware 1,665 1,500 1,291

Florida 1,842 1,669 1,498

Georgia 1,433 1,336 1,298

Idaho    

Illinois 1,944 1,874 1,806

Indiana 2,053 2,020 1,986

Iowa 1,781 1,781 1,781

Kansas 1,837 1,759 1,759

Kentucky 2,152 2,140 2,123

Louisiana 1,842 1,774 1,702

Maine 42 42 42

Maryland 1,831 1,671 1,529

Massachusetts 902 641 460

Michigan 2,001 1,950 1,899

Minnesota 1,659 1,659 1,659

Mississippi 1,651 1,441 1,379

Missouri 2,024 2,009 1,994

Montana 2,234 2,160 2,088

Nebraska 1,985 1,920 1,851

Nevada 1,200 1,036 907

New Hampshire 769 536 472

New Jersey 970 677 455

New Mexico 1,752 1,643 1,612

New York 961 771 608

North Carolina 1,816 1,700 1,614

North Dakota 1,984 1,984 1,984

Ohio 2,027 1,942 1,818
   

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Oklahoma 1,597 1,482 1,482

Oregon 466 368 361

Pennsylvania 1,852 1,683 1,465

Rhode Island    

South Carolina 1,181 1,115 1,058

South Dakota 1,397 1,397 1,397

Tennessee 1,671 1,628 1,571

Texas 1,625 1,463 1,369

Utah 1,970 1,938 1,905

Virginia 1,681 1,323 1,259

Washington 620 498 414

West Virginia 1,994 1,916 1,800

Wisconsin 2,066 1,991 1,920

Wyoming 2,064 1,986 1,911

Table 8. Option 1 State Block 1 and 2: Modeled CO2 Emission Rate Constraints (Adjusted MWh‐

Weighted‐Average Pounds of CO2 Per Net MWh from Affected Generation Included in State Goals)

State

2020 and

Beyond

Alabama 1,329

Arizona 901

Arkansas 1,183

California 896

Colorado 1,525

Connecticut 811

Delaware 1,013

Florida 899

Georgia 1,298

Idaho 858

Illinois 1,894

Indiana 1,846

Iowa 1,846

Kansas 2,186

Kentucky 1,986

Louisiana 1,280

Maine 848

Maryland 1,870

Massachusetts 888

Michigan 1,639

Minnesota 1,380

Mississippi 848
   

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Missouri 1,784

Montana 2,332

Nebraska 1,941

Nevada 890

New Hampshire 878

New Jersey 973

New Mexico 1,447

New York 975

North Carolina 1,330

North Dakota 2,226

Ohio 1,718

Oklahoma 1,186

Oregon 862

Pennsylvania 1,531

Rhode Island 918

South Carolina 1,515

South Dakota 1,456

Tennessee 1,798

Texas 1,229

Utah 1,559

Virginia 1,138

Washington 995

West Virginia 1,940

Wisconsin 1,627

Wyoming 2,151

Table 9. Option 1 State Blocks 1, 2, 3: Modeled CO2 Emission Rate Constraints (Adjusted MWh‐

Weighted‐Average Pounds of CO2 Per Net MWh from Affected Generation Included in State Goals)

State 2020 2025

2030 and

Beyond

Alabama 1,243 1,197 1,139

Arizona 837 826 815

Arkansas 1,106 1,081 1,053

California 647 633 633

Colorado 1,295 1,231 1,225

Connecticut 718 685 644

Delaware 981 945 892

Florida 858 831 800

Georgia 988 944 927

Idaho 292 291 291

Illinois 1,602 1,549 1,497
   

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Indiana 1,767 1,742 1,716

Iowa 1,472 1,472 1,472

Kansas 1,731 1,658 1,658

Kentucky 1,973 1,962 1,947

Louisiana 1,192 1,161 1,128

Maine 451 451 451

Maryland 1,662 1,521 1,395

Massachusetts 789 730 662

Michigan 1,502 1,472 1,442

Minnesota 1,050 1,050 1,050

Mississippi 792 757 746

Missouri 1,735 1,723 1,711

Montana 2,100 2,030 1,963

Nebraska 1,769 1,713 1,652

Nevada 785 755 725

New Hampshire 656 565 532

New Jersey 826 744 641

New Mexico 1,238 1,179 1,163

New York 828 757 677

North Carolina 1,222 1,167 1,125

North Dakota 1,865 1,865 1,865

Ohio 1,653 1,598 1,515

Oklahoma 1,011 964 964

Oregon 523 460 455

Pennsylvania 1,401 1,312 1,190

Rhode Island 900 886 867

South Carolina 949 905 866

South Dakota 900 900 900

Tennessee 1,395 1,364 1,322

Texas 1,060 995 955

Utah 1,495 1,475 1,454

Virginia 1,006 911 891

Washington 460 391 338

West Virginia 1,875 1,801 1,692

Wisconsin 1,468 1,426 1,385

Wyoming 1,911 1,840 1,771

Table 10. Option 1 State Blocks 1, 2, 4: Modeled CO2 Emission Rate Constraints (Adjusted MWh‐

Weighted‐Average Pounds of CO2 Per Net MWh from Affected Generation Included in State Goals)

State 2020 2025

2030 and

Beyond
   

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Alabama 1,313 1,257 1,222

Arizona 833 785 765

Arkansas 1,163 1,103 1,067

California 817 756 731

Colorado 1,459 1,385 1,352

Connecticut 741 681 655

Delaware 1,004 971 947

Florida 879 834 809

Georgia 1,263 1,173 1,124

Idaho 672 525 475

Illinois 1,758 1,627 1,571

Indiana 1,781 1,685 1,640

Iowa 1,732 1,629 1,585

Kansas 2,147 2,008 1,918

Kentucky 1,946 1,849 1,794

Louisiana 1,260 1,182 1,132

Maine 729 651 620

Maryland 1,722 1,577 1,515

Massachusetts 826 766 740

Michigan 1,530 1,429 1,386

Minnesota 1,249 1,143 1,099

Mississippi 835 791 764

Missouri 1,752 1,660 1,604

Montana 2,254 2,146 2,097

Nebraska 1,886 1,768 1,706

Nevada 857 806 782

New Hampshire 844 787 760

New Jersey 941 835 773

New Mexico 1,392 1,310 1,273

New York 883 799 763

North Carolina 1,283 1,193 1,148

North Dakota 2,209 2,150 2,111

Ohio 1,631 1,538 1,497

Oklahoma 1,166 1,114 1,084

Oregon 739 648 612

Pennsylvania 1,455 1,385 1,354

Rhode Island 884 842 823

South Carolina 1,445 1,312 1,249

South Dakota 1,378 1,181 1,079

Tennessee 1,728 1,586 1,515

Texas 1,202 1,133 1,093

Utah 1,506 1,438 1,408

Virginia 1,118 1,047 1,002
   

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Washington 687 510 454

West Virginia 1,924 1,879 1,852

Wisconsin 1,523 1,429 1,388

Wyoming 2,137 2,094 2,068