United States 

Institute of Pe a c e

New A p p roaches to

International Negotiation

and Mediation

Findings fro m

USIP–Sponsored Researc h

Edited by Ti m o t hy D. Sisk
Peaceworks No. 30. First published August 1999.

The views expressed in this report are those of the author alone.

They do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Institute of Peace.

UN I T E D ST A T E S IN S T I T U T E O F PE A C E

1200 17th Street NW, Suite 200

Washington, DC 20036-3011

Phone: 202-457-1700

Fax: 202-429-6063

E-mail: usip_requests@usip.org

Web: www.usip.org
C o n t e n t s

S u m m a r y v

Part I: Applied Th e o r y

1. Recent Advances in Negotiation Theory and

Application to Skills Training by Daniel Druckman

and Victor Robinson 1

2. Adjusted Winner Theory: Applications to the

South China Sea by Steven Brams 7

Part II: Simulat i o n s

3. Computer-Based Simulation: Antarctic Treaty and

Falklands/Malvinas Negotiations by Jack Child 12

4. Crisis Negotiation Environment Project

by Jonathan Wilkenfeld and Sarit Kraus 17

5. Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention:

A Teaching Simulation by Marie Isabelle Chevrier 21

Part III: Internal Conflicts

6. Negotiating an End in Civil Wars: General Findings

by Roy Licklider 24

7. Negotiating for Peace in Liberia: Conclusions and

Recommendations by Richard Joseph 28

8. Negotiating with “Villains” by Bertram Spector 33

C o n c l u s i o n s :

B r i d ging Theory and Pra c t i c e 38

A p p e n d i x : Th e o retical Aspects of

Adjusted Winner Th e o r y 40

About the Contributors 44

About the Institute 45
S u m m a r y

Nego ti a ti on and med i a ti on lie at the core of ef forts to re s o lve con f l i ct wi t h o ut the

use of force . The cen tra l i ty of these issues to con f l i ct managem ent su ggests that

basic re s e a rch on nego ti a ti on and its fac i l i t a ted co u n terp a rt ,m ed i a ti on , of fers

the best opportu n i ties for tra n s l a ting adva n ces in knowl ed ge into bet ter outcomes in

tod ay ’s many arenas of con f l i ct . Moreover, a l t h o u gh re s e a rch funded by the Un i ted State s

In s ti tute of Pe ace is rel a ted pri m a ri ly to intern a ti onal con f l i ct , it may hold lessons that are

a pp l i c a ble to other arenas of b a r ga i n i n g.

Beyond adva n ces in basic knowl ed ge , rapid devel opm ents in tech n o l ogy and flows of

i n form a ti on may of fer opportu n i ties to improve com p l ex intern a ti onal nego ti a ti on s .

S ch o l a rs and ex peri en ced nego ti a tors have long apprec i a ted that inadequ a te or inacc u ra te

i n form a ti on can lead to misu n ders t a n d i n gs , and that incom p l ete knowl ed ge can detract

f rom optimal outcom e s . New tech n o l ogies can be an aid in barga i n i n g, but they can genera te new probl ems as well . Wh et h er in to u gh ,d rawn - o ut nego ti a ti ons on gl obal arm s

redu cti on or shuttle diplom acy to bring parties in a bi t ter civil war to a stable set t l em en t ,

basic knowl ed ge abo ut nego ti a ti on and med i a ti on can help po l i c ym a kers formu l a te

s tra tegies for improved con f l i ct managem en t .

The Un i ted States In s ti tute of Pe ace ,f rom its incepti on in 1984, has recogn i zed the

i m port a n ce of ach i eving a more ri gorous understanding of n ego ti a ti on and med i a ti on to

i m prove the nati on’s capac i ty to re s o lve intern a ti onal con f l i ct s . Al t h o u gh nego ti a ti on pervades human rel a ti ons from the pers onal to the highest levels of i n tern a ti onal po l i ti c s ,

and its stu dy has intere s ted ph i l o s oph ers ,h i s tori a n s , and theo l ogians since the begi n n i n g

of human sch o l a rs h i p, adva n ces con ti nue to be made in understanding the basic factors

that lead to su ccessful nego ti a ti on — a greem ent wi t h o ut re s ort to force — or failu re .

This Pe aceworks report disti lls the findings and po l i c y - rel evant con clu s i ons of s om e

recent re s e a rch spon s ored by the In s ti tute , pri m a ri ly thro u gh its Grant Progra m , wh i ch

has aw a rded some 64 gra n t s , totaling more than $2.2 mill i on , in su pport of re s e a rch on

topics direct ly or indirect ly rel a ted to nego ti a ti on and med i a ti on re s e a rch , edu c a ti on ,a n d

tra i n i n g. For ex a m p l e , in its 1995 annual So l i c i ted Grant com peti ti on , the In s ti tute su pported several proj ects on med i a ti on theory and practi ce .

This report excerpts key findings from some In s ti tute - su pported re s e a rch . In re s pon s e

to a loo s ely stru ctu red qu e s ti on n a i re ,s el ected proj ect directors iden ti f i ed the key theoretical findings of t h eir re s e a rch proj ect s , those most likely to be of use to po l i c ym a kers ,a n d

n ew approaches to skills training and te ach i n g.

D a n i el Dru ckman and Vi ctor Robi n s on catalog a wi de ra n ge of re s e a rch findings

a pp l i c a ble to programs de s i gn ed to en h a n ce the skills of policy practi ti on ers , poi n ting to

s everal findings that go against the conven ti onal wi s dom . For ex a m p l e ,t h ey con clu de

that hasti ly re ach ed agreem ents som etimes re sult in the “ wi n n er ’s curs e” — what appe a red

to be a party ’s gain at the time of sealing a pact tu rns out to be to its detri m en t . Th ey

h ave also found that time pre s su re bro u ght to bear too early — for ex a m p l e , before each

v
v i

p a rty has ga t h ered su f f i c i ent inform a ti on to ground it well — m ay have serious nega tive

con s equ en ce s . On the other hand, bro u ght to bear at the ri ght mom en t , de adlines may

be useful to com p l ete the process leading to a fundamen t a lly sound agreem en t .

D ru ckman and Robi n s on also de s c ri be a set of training exercises to bri d ge theory and

policy that were used in training sessions for Un i ted Na ti ons officials and adva n ced gradu a te stu den t s .

S teven Brams uses mathem a tics and formal logic to adva n ce a theory that proposes to

h elp settle disputes invo lving distri buti on of s c a rce re s o u rce s . He el a bora tes on a theory

of “ad ju s ted wi n n ers” that asks disputants to en ga ge in a poi n t - a ll oc a ti on process that

h elps iden tify the re s o u rces they most va lu e . Using the poi n t s , the ad ju s ted wi n n er

process helps disputants divi de re s o u rces in a sort of trade proce s s , giving them a way to

d i s cover fairness and come up with a su s t a i n a ble agreem en t . In app l i c a ti on , Brams shows

h ow parties to the disputes over the re s o u rce - ri ch Spra t ly Islands in the So uth China Se a

could be hel ped by em p l oying the ad ju s ted wi n n er procedu re .

Tra i n ers have long apprec i a ted that simu l a ti on exercises—in wh i ch stu dents or

tra i n ees take roles to con du ct a “n ego ti a ti on”—can be very ef fective ped a gogical devi ce s .

The simu l a ti on exercises su m m a ri zed here are de s i gn ed to sti mu l a te thinking abo ut ways

in wh i ch re a l - l i fe exercises can be introdu ced in the cl a s s room and in profe s s i onal tra i ni n g, e s pec i a lly em p l oying new inform a ti on tech n o l ogi e s .

Jack Child has prep a red a simu l a ti on on the nego ti a ti on of the An t a rctic Tre a ty and

the Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvinas dispute in the So uth At l a n ti c . What sets this simu l a ti on apart is

its use of n ew inform a ti on tech n o l ogi e s . Child has used the mu l ti m edia capac i ty of C D -

ROM to devel op a cl a s s room simu l a ti on that inclu des a large amount of text and vi su a l

m a teri a l s . For ex a m p l e , re ad i n gs on nego ti a ti on theory, b ack ground papers ,m a p s ,

vi deo s , and instru cti ons to stu dents are incorpora ted in the same med iu m . This repres ents a fresh and cre a tive approach to te aching nego ti a ti on .

Jonathan Wi l ken feld and Sa rit Kraus use even more adva n ced com p uter tech n o l ogi e s

to devel op a simu l a ti on exercise that puts stu dents in the middle of a cri s i s , asking them

to gen era te stra tegies for freeing hostage s ,t h ro u gh nego ti a ti on , in the vo l a tile regi on of

So uth As i a .S tu dents get to play the roles of India (the state wh ere a put a tive hijack i n g

occ u rs ) , the ficti tious Sikh hijackers , and Pa k i s t a n , wh i ch seeks to med i a te a pe aceful en d

to the cri s i s . Wi l ken feld and Kraus report that pri or ex po su re to principles and practi ce s

of n ego ti a ti on thro u gh an autom a ted dec i s i on su pport sys tem—a com p uter progra m

that stru ctu res and fac i l i t a tes the interacti on — l e ads participants to come up with more

ef fective nego ti a ti on stra tegi e s .

Ma rie Ch evri er has devel oped a simu l a ti on that puts stu dents in the po s i ti on of one of

t welve co u n tries seeking to nego ti a te a new pro tocol to the Bi o l ogical We a pon s

Conven ti on . This simu l a ti on vivi dly illu s tra tes the com p l ex i ty of i n tern a ti onal nego ti ati ons in arms con trol and procedu res for coa l i ti on form a ti on ; the exercise also helps students navi ga te gn a rly issues like soverei gn ty.

In ternal con f l i ct s , so preva l ent in the po s t – Cold War worl d , h ave recen t ly been mu ch

a n a ly zed as opportu n i ties for nego ti a ti on and med i a ti on . Roy Lick l i der ’s proj ect comp a res the con d i ti ons under wh i ch civil wars might end thro u gh nego ti a ti on and those in

wh i ch they might end in military vi ctory. Th ro u gh a nu m ber of case stu d i e s , he conSummary
clu des that the conven ti onal wi s dom that civil wars do not end thro u gh nego ti a ti on is

f a l s e . However, he argues, t h ere are good re a s ons to ex pect that nego ti a ted set t l em ents to

c ivil war do not lead to su s t a i n a ble pe ace ; w a rs en ded at the table of ten re - i gn i te .

Ri ch a rd Jo s eph ,d rawing on a proj ect that analy zes ef forts to settle the civil war in

L i beri a , con clu des that mu ch more atten ti on needs to be paid to econ omic interests that

d rive these wars , and to the psych o l ogy of “ w a rl ord i s m .” He notes that wars like Liberi a’s

gen era te a “brisk and lu c ra tive trade” in arm s , precious met a l s , and other com m od i ti e s ;

ef forts to end them thro u gh nego ti a ti on must take into account the econ omic factors

that perpetu a te the figh ti n g. He also draws atten ti on to issues rel a ting to “mu l ti p a rty

m ed i a ti on ,” in wh i ch priva te and official med i a ti on ef forts occur at the same ti m e , or

wh en the baton is passed from one med i a ti on ef fort to another.

Bertram Spector has analy zed the con d i ti ons under wh i ch nego ti a ti ons are undert a ken with “ vi ll a i n s” — u su a lly terrorists or other aggre s s ors — de s c ri bing three pattern s . A

trad i ti onal pattern puts the dec i s i on to seek nego ti a ti on in the vi ll a i n’s hands. A secon d

p a t tern , the “bri n k m a n s h i p” a pproach , com bines threats of m i l i t a ry acti on with a lastm i nute opening to get talks started .F i n a lly, t h ere is a “business model ,” in wh i ch both the

de s i gn a tor and the vi llain agree to a process by wh i ch the vi llain gains a place at the tabl e .

S pector points out the ethical qu e s ti ons bro u ght up by the “difficult and ri s ky ” qu e s ti on

of who makes the first move in agreeing to nego ti a te , con cluding by assessing et h i c a lly

a ppropri a te mechanisms for nego ti a ting with vi ll a i n s .

The proj ect su m m a ries that appear here dem on s tra te just a few of the ri ch and

en l i gh tening studies that have re su l ted from the In s ti tute’s ef forts to su pport cut ti n g - ed ge

re s e a rch in intern a ti onal pe ace and con f l i ct re s o luti on . By synthesizing the work ,t h i s

p u bl i c a ti on is inten ded to help practi ti on ers ,s ch o l a rs , and stu dents bet ter unders t a n d

i n n ova tive approaches to the stu dy and te aching of n ego ti a ti on and med i a ti on proce s s e s

and skill s . The con clu s i on su ggests some ways in wh i ch this re s e a rch may help practi ti oners seeking to understand and manage de s tru ctive con f l i ct s .

Re aders seeking furt h er inform a ti on on these proj ects and details on the bi bl i ogra ph i c

referen ces should con t act the proj ect directors . E-mail ad d resses for them are provi ded in

the secti on “Abo ut the Con tri butors .”

A com preh en s ive list of produ cts of U S I P- f u n ded re s e a rch appe a rs under the Gra n t

Program banner at the In s ti tute’s web s i te (www. u s i p. or g ) , wh i ch also lists a nu m ber of

ava i l a ble publ i c a ti ons su m m a rizing In s ti tute - su pported proj ects on topics su ch as Af ri c a ,

n on govern m ental or ga n i z a ti on s , the Mi d dle East, and ethnic con f l i ct .

Summary v i i
1

Part I: Applied Th e o r y

b y

D a n i e l

D ru c k m a n

and Vi c t o r

R o b i n s o n

Chapter 1

Recent A d vances in Negotiation Th e o r y

and A p p l i c ation to Skills Tra i n i n g

This proj ect , using findings from the re s e a rch litera tu re on nego ti a ting stra tegi e s

and proce s s e s , de s i gns training programs to devel op nego ti a ting and rel a ted

con f l i ct - m a n a gem ent skills for diplomats and those who su pport intern a ti on a l

n ego ti a ti on s .

F rom Research to A p p l i c at i o n

The link bet ween ori ginal re s e a rch and app l i c a ti on in a training con text is made thro u gh

the use of topical narra tive s , su m m a rizing findings in a form more acce s s i ble to practiti on ers used to dealing with stra tegy, l ogi s ti c s , and process ra t h er than with re s e a rch and

s ch o l a rs h i p. E ach narra tive , en d n o ted to cite its source s , is fo ll owed by four discussion

qu e s ti ons inten ded to en co u ra ge participants to con s i der implicati ons that would hel p

t h em en act the ro l e - p l aying exercises that fo ll ow.

F i n d i n gs in profe s s i onal journals were gro u ped under the fo ll owing twelve ru bri c s :

ach i eving integra tive agreem en t s ; ef fects on third parti e s ; the use of po s i tive and nega tive

a f fect ;c u l tu re ; ef fects of rel a ti on s h i p ; ef fects of ex peri en ce ;a l tern a tives to nego ti a ted

a greem en t s ; time pre s su re ; i n form a ti on exch a n ge ; pre s en ting two faces in nego ti a ti on ;

using rew a rd s ; and con s traints on nego ti a ting flex i bi l i ty. These categories also take into

account each of s everal aspects of n ego ti a ti on including prep a ra ti on ,b ack ground factors ,

and other aspects of con tex t , process and com mu n i c a ti on , s i tu a ti onal influ en ce s , a n d

o utcom e s . The categories were the bases for wri ting the twelve narra tive su m m a ri e s .

In tere s ti n gly, our com p i l a ti on threw light on a nu m ber of f i n d i n gs that appear to be

co u n teri n tu i tive or even paradox i c a l . Fo ll owing are some ex a m p l e s :

Q u i ck agreem ents may be bad agreem en t s . Th ey of ten occur before barga i n ers have

an opportu n i ty to be su re they ’re working with all the rel evant inform a ti on . Th e

re sult is a kind of “ wi n n er ’s curs e ,” wh ere a barga i n er thinks he or she got the

de s i red outcome wh en in fact there could have been a bet ter on e .

Ex ten s ive inform a ti on searches du ring nego ti a ti on may reveal incom p a ti bi l i ties of

i n terest that serve to escalate ra t h er than re s o lve the con f l i ct .
“ Fri en d s h i p” or good rel a ti ons may lead to su boptimal agreem ents because barga i ners con cede too mu ch too soon .

Fri endship may lead to disappoi n ted ex pect a ti ons wh en the other takes a to u gh er

s t a n ce than ex pected ,l e ading to overre acti on and impasse.

Time pre s su re can produ ce prem a tu re (and su boptimal) agreem ents if i m po s ed too

s oon ; i f i nvo ked at the ri ght time it can also en co u ra ge the cl o su re needed to seal

good agreem en t s .

At tractive altern a tives usu a lly increase a nego ti a tor ’s bargaining power, but they also

en co u ra ge barga i n ers to focus on their own interests and to perceive their oppon ents as having even more attractive altern a tive s . These are the con d i ti ons for su boptimal agreem en t s .

Al t h o u gh nati onal cultu re shapes beh avi or, it may be a less important influ en ce on

the beh avi or of i n tern a ti onal nego ti a tors who share a profe s s i onal su bc u l tu re .

G iving rew a rd s , su ch as making or rec i proc a ting con ce s s i ons or prom i s e s ,m ay produ ce speedy but prem a tu re agreem en t s , not the best agreem ents attainabl e .

To u gh po s tu res may be adva n t a geous wh en fo ll owed by sof ter beh avi or; coopera tive

beh avi or is va lu ed more in a com peti tive con tex t .

An ger may be hel pful if it is used to em ph a s i ze deep ly felt interests and is directed at

the task ra t h er than the other barga i n er.

F l a t tery app l i ed to cre a te good feel i n gs may be dys f u n cti onal if it is seen as ingra ti a ting or manipulative .

Movem ent from nego ti a ting po s i ti ons is not a sign of f l ex i bi l i ty if it is not vo lu n t a ry

or re sults from coerc i on by a more powerful oppon en t .

Findings for Training 

The re s e a rch also has implicati ons for ef fective nego ti a ting skill s . For ex a m p l e , n ego ti ators should:

Di s co u ra ge qu i ck agreem ents by avoiding too - rapid con ce s s i on exch a n ge s .

Avoid exch a n ging “too mu ch” i n form a ti on if the pro s pect of an optimal soluti on

l ooks prom i s i n g. In - depth probes may reveal incom p a ti ble interests that escalate the

con f l i ct .

Time the display of to u gh and soft tacti c s ,s equ encing them by pre s en ting firm po stu res early, s of ter po s tu res later.

2 Negotiation Theory and Skills Training
Negotiation Theory and Skills Training 3

Use ex peri en ce or acqu i red skills in logro lling and other tactics to sec u re improved

o utcomes for all the nego ti a ting parti e s , not just the nego ti a tor ’s .

Avoid approaching a nego ti a ti on as though it were a com peti ti on , and be wary of

the tem pt a ti on to see set t l em ent itsel f as the main goa l .

O rch e s tra te the nego ti a ting situ a ti on for flex i bi l i ty by insu l a ting the talks from

m edia covera ge , avoiding ideo l ogical deb a te s , and reducing acco u n t a bi l i ty to cons ti tu encies or other parties with ve s ted interests in the outcom e .

Avoid em b a rrassing oppon en t s . All ow them to take risks and be inven tive , and give

t h em room for being flex i bl e .

In med i a ti on ,t h i rd parties should su ggest com promises early to establish a rep ut ati on for fairn e s s , but disco u ra ge the nego ti a tors from actu a lly making com prom i s e s

in favor of an inform a ti on search proce s s .

The re s e a rch also iden tifies rel a ti onships among factors that con tri bute to integra tive

a greem en t s . These rel a ti onships—the anatomy of i n tegra tive bargaining—can be dep i cted in a fra m ework , as shown in table 1.

By iden ti f ying the con d i ti ons and processes of i n tegra tive barga i n i n g, this fra m ework

s erves as a model for training and prep a ra ti on . These activi ties and con d i ti on s ,a pp l i ed

in the ro l e - p l aying exerc i s e s , can be arra n ged and the skills learn ed to improve nego ti a ting ef fectiven e s s . Mi d - c a reer Un i ted Na ti ons diplomats and gradu a te stu dents have parti c i p a ted in the exercises de s c ri bed bel ow.

A n t e c e d e n t C o n c u r r e n t C o n s e q u e n t

P r e p a r a t i o n P r o c e s s O u t c o m e

Amount of study in Extent of information Extent to which agreement

prenegotiation phase e x c h a n g e is integrative

Background Factors C o n d i t i o n s I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

Amount and type of Amount of time pressure Extent to which agreement

e x p e r i e n c e is stable over time

Logrolling skills Extent to which talks are

open or closed

Attractiveness of

A l t e r n a t i v e s

Table 1: Anatomy of Integrative Bargaining
4 Negotiation Theory and Skills Training

Utilizing Findings in Tra i n i n g

The proj ect devel oped a series of bri d ging exercises in wh i ch participants use the re s e a rch

f i n d i n gs in an app l i ed con tex t . Th ey perform three ro l e s ,e ach of wh i ch re s em bles a profe s s i onal activi ty frequ en t ly en ga ged in by nego ti a tors and su pporting staff in governm ent agencies and intern a ti onal or ga n i z a ti on s . Using case studies from the

Pew - s pon s ored Geor getown In s ti tute of Di p l om acy and from Johns Hop k i n s’ Forei gn

Policy In s ti tute ,p a rticipants en act the roles of m em bers of s m a ll “con su l ting te a m s .”As

a n a lys t s ,t h ey are asked to iden tify the factors in the situ a ti on ,i s su e s ,p a rti e s , or proce s s

that moved the discussions tow a rd an agreem ent or de adl ock .In the second ph a s e ,a s

s tra tegi s t s ,t h ey devel op a plan to re s o lve an impasse that occ u rred in the case. As de s i gners ,t h ey are asked to con s tru ct a training exercise that incorpora tes the findings

de s c ri bed in the narra tive s . For each “a s s i gn m en t ,” the teams are given three hours to prep a re a wri t ten report .

Ro l e - p l ayers used the re s e a rch findings de s c ri bed in the narra tives in a va ri ety of w ays .

In their analysis of the case of the Korean Joggers (a 1977 shoe ex port agreem en t ) , on e

team showed that the all i e s — So uth Korea and the Un i ted State s — re ach ed qu i ck agreem en t s , l e aving aside the re s o luti on of i s sues that would have con tri buted to a more lasting soluti on . Time pre s su re com bi n ed with power asym m etry to limit the amount of

time spent exch a n ging inform a ti on . Kore a’s flattery co u p l ed with to u gh po s tu ri n g

s ec u red it a pret ty good de a l , as might be pred i cted from the findings on “t wo - f ace” ( or

“reform ed sinner”) stra tegies in nego ti a ti on .

The team that analy zed the 1983 mu l ti l a teral talks over Leb a n on showed that Syri a’s

a t tractive altern a tives kept it on the sidel i n e s ,l e ading to a less-than-optimal agreem en t .

Ot h er factors shown by the re s e a rch to have redu ced the qu a l i ty of the outcome were the

Un i ted State s’s use of its ex peri en ce to manipulate the process and the focus on devel oping stra tegies (ra t h er than on stu dying the issues) du ring pren ego ti a ti on , wh i ch redu ced

the flex i bi l i ty needed to re ach integra tive agreem en t s .

In the second stage of the exerc i s e , devel oping stra tegi e s , the team that analy zed the

Leb a n on case devel oped a plan to help move the parties tow a rd a favora ble agreem en t .

Th ey propo s ed a format for exch a n ging inform a ti on , using rew a rds in con ju n cti on wi t h

s a n cti on s , minimizing the role of time pre s su re , and tacti c a lly using fri en d s h i p, i n gra ti ati on , and sec recy in building and sustaining rel a ti on s h i p s . Ideas from the narra tives were

also useful in devel oping a stra tegy for the failed mu l ti l a teral FAO governing con feren ce

in 1989. By relaxing time pre s su re s ,a ppealing to modera te con s ti tu encies in the Un i ted

S t a te s , building fri en d s h i p s , and using rew a rd s , this “con su l ti n g” team of fered a plan that

could provi de the flex i bi l i ty needed for an agreem en t . In attem pting to improve on the

1977 Kore a - U. S .a greem ent on shoe ex port s , the stra tegy team propo s ed a two - s tep

process that inclu ded a pren ego ti a ti on con feren ce for rel a ti onship building and a nego tia ti on stru ctu red for probl em solvi n g. This proposal was based on re s e a rch findings on

the tactical use of a n ger, rew a rd s ,i n form a ti on exch a n ge , and altern a tive s .

The narra tives also provi ded a basis for de s i gning simu l a ti ons for training or re s e a rch .

Using the case of the Korean Joggers , one team built a training exercise to prep a re the

n ego ti a tors to parti c i p a te in their propo s ed two - s tep probl em - s o lving stra tegy. The exer-
cise incorpora ted ideas from the findings on rel a ti onship in the con text of power asymm etry, a f fect ,f l ex i bi l i ty, and integra tive proce s s e s . In an ex peri m ent com p a ring va ri o u s

s ym m etrical and asym m etrical power rel a ti on s h i p s , a n o t h er team used ideas from the

n a rra tives on rel a ti on s h i p, time pre s su re , ex peri en ce ,i n form a ti on shari n g, and altern ative s . In their three - d ay simu l a ti on of a mu l ti l a teral con feren ce , a third team con s tru cted

an el a bora te exercise that would all ow ro l e - p l ayers to deal with the com p l ex i ty of m a ny

p a rties and types of i s su e s , to ex peri en ce time pre s su re , to sep a ra te ideo l ogical con cern s

f rom intere s t s , and to discover the way that type of prep a ra ti on can influ en ce the ch a n ce s

for attaining optimal agreem en t s . For ex a m p l e , a team may dec i de to propose that the

trade dispute be med i a ted by a third party su ch as the World Trade Orga n i z a ti on , a n d

that if the med i a ti on fails the dispute wi ll be arbi tra ted — dec i s ively re s o lved — by the

m ed i a tor. In all these simu l a ti on de s i gn s , a debri efing session was planned to ascert a i n

the ex tent to wh i ch participants learn ed the lessons from the narra tive s .

E va l u ating the Exe rc i s e s

The exerc i s e s — both those con du cted with diplomats for three days and with gradu a te

s tu dents for three wee k s — were eva lu a ted in several ways . Pa rticipants were asked qu e sti ons abo ut the narra tive s , the ro l e s , and app lying the narra tives to the cases. Open - en ded

qu e s ti ons were asked abo ut what was learn ed . The “con su l ti n g - te a m” e s s ays were ra ted in

terms of the ex tent to wh i ch ideas from the re s e a rch were incorpora ted in the analys i s ,

s tra tegy, or de s i gn .And lon ger- term impacts were assessed by fo ll ow-up qu e s ti ons sent to

the UN participants three months after the work s h op s . Fo ll owing is a su m m a ry of s om e

re su l t s :

All participants thought that the narra tives con tri buted very useful inform a ti on for

those playing each of the three ro l e s .

The analyst role con tri buted most to understanding the material and learning the

f i n d i n gs , fo ll owed by the stra tegist and de s i gn er role exerc i s e s .

The disti n cti ons made among the roles were clear to the parti c i p a n t s ; t h ey fo u n d

the roles ch a ll en ging and som ewhat difficult to exec ute .

The cases were seen as rel evant to the narra tive s , and the narra tives were som ewh a t

easy to app ly to the cases.

Pa rticipants were more sati s f i ed with their produ cts in the analyst and stra tegi s t

roles than in the more difficult de s i gn er ro l e .

The narra tives made a differen ce . Com p a ri s ons bet ween narra tive and “con tro l ”

groups (teams that analy zed the cases wi t h o ut the narra tive su m m a ries of re s e a rch )

i n d i c a ted strong differen ces in the qu a l i ty of the wri t ten reports and in what was

l e a rn ed . The narra tive teams wro te more su btle and nu a n ced reports than the control te a m s .

Negotiation Theory and Skills Training 5
6 Negotiation Theory and Skills Training

The gradu a te stu dent participants in the three - week co u rse produ ced high er- qu a l i ty

produ cts (avera ge of 1.6 on a scale ra n ging from 1—det a i l ed app l i c a ti on of concept s — to 3—limited nu m ber of con cepts used) than the diplomats in the three - d ay

work s h op (avera ge of 2 — i n corpora tes gen eral themes from the narra tive s — on the

3 - s tep scale).

S ti ll , even the three - d ay work s h op had lon g - term ef fect s . Most participants indicated that they con ti nu ed to think abo ut and use the ide a s . Th ey also said that they

would con sult the nego ti a ti on re s e a rch litera tu re in rel evant profe s s i onal situ a ti on s .

These re sults su ggest that re s e a rch material can be unders tood and used ef fectively in

va rious case app l i c a ti on s . Lon ger work s h ops seem to be more ef fective , but the con cept s

con ti nue to be used by those who have parti c i p a ted even in the shorter session s . Th i s

i n n ova tive format may also be used with other topics in con f l i ct managem ent and re s oluti on , for example with the re s e a rch litera tu res on med i a ti on , pe ace keep i n g, or pe acebuilding interven ti on s .
7

Chapter 2

Adjusted Winner Th e o r y :

A p p l i c ations to the South China Sea

Ba r gaining theory, e s pec i a lly in econ om i c s , has proved singularly inapp l i c a ble to

the set t l em ent of re a l - l i fe dispute s . This is true de s p i te the attem pts made by a

nu m ber of t h eorists to dem on s tra te the con tri buti ons that ri gorous models have

m ade to understanding re a l - l i fe con f l i cts and pre s c ri bing soluti ons (Ra i f f a ,1 9 8 2 ; Lax and

Seben iu s ,1 9 8 6 ; Bra m s ,1 9 9 0 ) .

A major re a s on for this failu re , in my op i n i on , has been the almost total sep a ra ti on of

b a r gaining theori e s — a n d , on the more app l i ed side ,“n ego ti a ti on analys i s”(Yo u n g, 1 9 9 1 ;

Seben iu s ,1 9 9 2 ) — f rom theories of fair divi s i on (Yo u n g, 1 9 9 4 ; Brams and Tayl or, 1 9 9 6 ) .

Th eories of fair divi s i on ad d ress how disputants can divi de va lu ed item s , su ch as terri tory, in a mutu a lly sati s f actory manner. Thu s , for ex a m p l e , I know of no pra cti c a l f a i r- d ivis i on sch emes that have been app l i ed to two - p a rty disputes that con cern the re s o luti on of

mu l tiple issues that two sides con test or the divi s i on of mu l tiple items that two side s

cl a i m .

The Ad ju s ted Wi n n er process (AW) uses a point all oc a ti on sys tem that all ows parti e s

to talks to assign a nu m erical va lue to their interests and to trade of f the va lues in a negoti a ti on . Th ro u gh bazaar- s tyle haggl i n g, t h ey discover a fair com prom i s e . My proj ect

dem on s tra tes that AW is app l i c a ble to disputes of the sort de s c ri bed above ; i n deed , it has

been app l i ed , hypo t h eti c a lly, to three intern a ti onal dispute s ,t wo past and one con tem pora ry. Policy analysts have re acted favora bly to the con tem pora ry app l i c a ti on (the Spra t ly

Islands dispute) in different foru m s . In ad d i ti on , I have app l i ed AW to other con tem pora ry intern a ti onal disputes and also ex ten ded its theoretical devel opm en t .( E d i tor ’s note :

The form a l - t h eoretical formu l ae for this essay can be found in the appen d i x . )

AW has several com pelling properties in producing a divi s i on of mu l tiple item s — to

wh i ch the two parties may attach different va lu e s — bet ween the parti e s :

The nego ti a ti on can be free of env y. Nei t h er party wi ll envy the items that the other

receive s , because it wi ll think the va lue of the items it obtains is worth more than 50

percent of the total equ i t a bi l i ty: E ach party wi ll think that the va lue it receives is

gre a ter by the same amou n t over 50 percent as the va lue that the other party receive s .

The bargaining is ef f i c i en t . Both parties cannot ben efit by a swap of a ny item s — i f

one party does bet ter, the other must do wors e .

The stra tegies are practical and foo l proof—it is difficult for one party to ex p l oit the

o t h er wi t h o ut having precise inform a ti on abo ut its oppon en t’s preferen ces and

prob a ble point assign m en t s .

b y

Steven Brams
Keen ey and Raiffa (1991), in the absen ce of a procedu re for en su ring an ef f i c i ent sett l em en t , propose that the parties to a dispute first work out an “accept a bl e” s et t l em en t .

Th ey su ggest that a third party (“con tract em bell i s h er”) might then make ad ju s tm ents in

the ori ginal set t l em ent that moves it tow a rd ef f i c i ency in what Raiffa (1985, 1993) calls a

“po s t - s et t l em ent set t l em en t .”

By con tra s t , AW guara n tees ef f i c i en c y, as well as env y - f reeness and equ i t a bi l i ty, at the

s t a rt, a s suming the parties are honest in their va lu a ti ons of i tems and assign m ents of

points to them in a dispute . This hon e s ty may be difficult to ach i eve in many dispute s .

But if the parties can ben efit by misrepre s en ting their preferen ce s , and their misrepre s ent a ti on undermines AW ’s attractive properti e s , it may not be “s a fe” to buy into this procedu re .

In practi ce , it tu rns out , AW is essen ti a lly non m a n i p u l a ble unless one party has

adva n ce inform a ti on abo ut the other party ’s exa ct point assign m en t s . As suming that this

is not the case, the principal role of the med i a tor shifts from coaxing the parties into a

com prom i s e , wh i ch may be very difficult, to helping them determine what va lues to

a s s i gn to disputed items or good s .

Thus med i a tors are not just neutral third parties advising the disputants on how

best to reconcile their differen ce s . In s te ad , AW provi des them with an important tool to

i n du ce the disputants to make t h eir own dec i s i ons abo ut what they most va lu e . Th ereby

it en co u ra ges the disputants to reveal their real interests—not just their bargaining po s iti ons (Fisher and Ury, 1991)—and accept re s pon s i bi l i ty for the con s equ en ces of t h ei r

ch oi ce s , wh i ch ,a f ter all ,t h ey ef fectively made by assigning points to the items in the

d i s p ute .

Applicability of the AW Th e o r y

To ex p l ore this hypothesis AW has been app l i ed retro s pectively to two con f l i ct s :t h a t

bet ween Panama and the Un i ted State s , wh i ch culminated in the 1977 tre a ty tra n s ferri n g

con trol of the Panama Canal to Panama (Brams and Tayl or, 1 9 9 6 , ch a p. 5 ) ; and the

Egypti a n - Is raeli con f l i ct leading to the 1978 Camp David agreem ent and a pe ace tre a ty

bet ween the two co u n tries in 1979 (Brams and Togm a n , 1 9 9 6 / 1 9 9 7 a ) . In the first case,

the two sides cl a s h ed on ten issu e s , and point assign m ents for both sides were made by

ro l e - p l ayers repre s en ting the Am erican nego ti a tors (Ra i f f a ,1 9 8 2 ) . In the second case,

Brams and Togman (1996/1997a) iden ti f i ed six major issu e s ;t h ey made point assignm ents on the basis of a va ri ety of reports on the Camp David nego ti a ti on s ,i n cluding the

m em oi rs of s everal of the parti c i p a n t s .

Coi n c i den t a lly, the AW set t l em ents in both the Panama Canal tre a ty dispute and the

Camp David dispute would have aw a rded each side ex act ly 66 poi n t s . Because AW is ef f ic i en t , n ei t h er side could have done bet ter if t h ere had been any other all oc a ti on .

In both cases, the hypo t h etical re sults mirror qu i te well the actual set t l em ents of t h e s e

d i s p ute s . In fact , the set t l em ents in each case might have been ex ped i ted by a year or

m ore had AW been ava i l a ble and been vi ewed by the two sides as a way of re ach i n g

cl o su re on long-standing con f l i ct s , both of wh i ch had ex p l oded in vi o l en ce on severa l

occ a s i on s .

8 Adjusted Winner Theory
The Spratly Islands Dispute

To illu s tra te the app l i c a ti on of AW to a major intern a ti onal dispute , con s i der the case of

the Spra t ly Is l a n d s , a group of over 230 small islands and reefs in the So uth China Se a .

The Peop l e’s Rep u blic of China and the Rep u blic of Ch i n a — wh i ch I wi ll refer to as

China and Ta iw a n , re s pectively—and four mem bers of the As s oc i a ti on of So ut h e a s t

Asian Na ti ons (ASEAN)—Vi etn a m , the Philipp i n e s , Ma l ays i a , and Bru n ei — h ave made

claims on part or all of the land areas and su rrounding waters of the Spra t lys . Th ere have

been arm ed clashes over the islands, and the con troversy has heated up because of t h e

po s s i bi l i ty of m a j or oil and gas deposits in the seabed .

Al t h o u gh the con f l i cts bet ween the two Koreas and the two Chinas have been more

prom i n en t , the Spra t ly dispute co u l d , over ti m e , become the most significant intern ati onal dispute in As i a . The scra m ble for terri tory has been fuel ed by an increasing recogn i ti on of the econ omic po ten tial of the Spra t lys ,i n cluding fishing opportu n i ti e s , wh i ch

h ave alre ady prec i p i t a ted some cl a s h e s .

But there is little do u bt that the regi on’s main econ omic po ten tial is in hyd roc a rbon s .

In Ju ly 1995, Ch i n a’s Pe opl e’s Da i ly referred to the So uth China Sea as “the second Pers i a n

Gu l f .”While this is almost cert a i n ly an ex a ggera ti on , both ex p l ora tory dri lling and som e

oil and gas discoveries indicate that deposits in the Spra t lys are likely to be con s i dera bl e .

Den oon and Brams (1997) revi ew the claims of the different disputants and the po s s ible role of the In tern a ti onal Co u rt of Ju s ti ce and other groups in ad ju d i c a ting these

cl a i m s . Th ey con clu de that because there are overl a pping claims and no single co u n try

has had con ti nuous po s s e s s i on of a ny su b s t a n tial part of the Spra t lys , it is unlikely that

i n tern a ti onal legal procedu res can qu i ck ly re s o lve the dispute s .

An immed i a te difficulty in app lying AW, of co u rs e , is that there are more than two

p l ayers . This difficulty can be side s tepped if the con f l i ct is rega rded , for the mom en t ,a s

one bet ween China and A S E A N , with ASEAN being con s i dered as a single player.

This vi ew seems re a l i s tic as a first step in re s o lving the overa ll dispute . China is by far

the largest single cl a i m a n t ,a gainst wh i ch the ASEAN co u n tries have form ed an implicit

coa l i ti on . Al t h o u gh these co u n tries now con trol most of the Spra t lys ,ASEAN po l i ti c a l

l e aders are well aw a re that Ch i n a’s power and influ en ce are likely to grow over ti m e ,s o

b a r gaining now (and as a group) has adva n t a ge s .

Nego ti a ti ons also seem adva n t a geous for Ch i n a . Tru e , no Chinese po l i tical leader

wants to be known as the pers on who nego ti a ted aw ay “Chinese terri tory.” Non et h el e s s ,

t h ere are several factors that migh t , for Ch i n a , tip the balance in favor of a t tem pting to

n ego ti a te a set t l em ent soon ,i n cluding its ra p i dly devel oping need for en er gy re s o u rce s

and its de s i re not to aggrava te its pre s ent to u chy rel a ti ons with other co u n tries (for

ex a m p l e , Vi etnam over their com m on border, the Un i ted States over Ta iwan) that co u l d

hu rt it po l i ti c a lly.

Thus it would appear to be in the lon g - run interest of both China and the A S E A N

claimants to try to re ach an equ i t a ble set t l em ent in the Spra t lys . A set t l em ent might provi de not on ly for parti ti on of the islands but also for joint ju ri s d i cti on and the com m on

devel opm ent of s om e ,e s pec i a lly those in wh i ch both sides have a more or less equ a l

i n terest and wh ere both can ben efit from shari n g, wh i ch AW permits thro u gh the equ it a bi l i ty ad ju s tm en t . It seems re a s on a ble to su ppo s e , as a starting poi n t , that China and

Adjusted Winner Theory 9
1 0 Adjusted Winner Theory

ASEAN are equal cl a i m a n t s . However, this su ppo s i ti on can be ch a n ged , su bj ect to agreem ent by the parti e s , to ref l ect unequal en ti t l em ents that AW all ows for.

In the Spra t ly dispute , Den oon and Brams (1997) su ggest that the goods that the two

s i des divi de are five groups of i s l a n d s , and ad jacent mari time are a s , in different parts of

the So uth China Se a : North Cen tra l , So uth Cen tra l ,E a s t , So ut h , and So ut hwe s t . Th i s

d ivi s i on into zones simplifies the all oc a ti on probl em to one of m ore manage a ble proporti ons than giving each side ,s ay, 1,000 points to distri bute over 230 islands.

How China and the ASEAN co u n tries would all oc a te their points depends upon wh a t

t h ey iden tify as their overwh elming intere s t s . Not having a good fix on ex act ly what the

t wo sides most de s i re , Den oon and Brams (1997) posit three altern a tive goals for Ch i n a

( C 1 ,C 2 , and C3), and two for the ASEAN co u n tries (A1 and A2) in app lying AW.

These are the scen a rios for China based on goals it may wish to maximize :

C 1 . Pol i tical coopera ti o n.China seeks to firm ly establish its soverei gn ty in the regi on

but minimize antagonisms with the ASEAN co u n tri e s . Thu s , China gives pri ori ty to

gaining con trol of the zones closest to itsel f , North Cen tral and So uth Cen tra l — by

p l acing 40 and 30 poi n t s , re s pectively, on these—and moving less aggre s s ively on

the East, So ut h , and So ut hwest zones by bidding on ly 10 points each for these.

C 2 . Mi l i t a ry pro m i n en ce.China seeks to sec u re bases in the North Cen tra l , So ut h ,a n d

So ut hwest as a means to proj ect its power thro u gh o ut the en ti re regi on .

Accord i n gly, it places 30, 3 0 , and 40 poi n t s , re s pectively, on these three zones but no

points on the So uth Cen tral and East zon e s .

C 3 . Economic ga i n.China seeks to con trol the zones with the most promising hyd roc a rbon deposits (the So uth and espec i a lly the So ut hwest) by placing 30 and 50

poi n t s , re s pectively, on them . It re s erves 20 points to try to gain con trol of the more

prox i m a te North Cen tral zon e .

These are the scen a rios for ASEAN based on goals it may wish to maximize :

A 1 . Pol i tical coopera tion and economic ga i n. ASEAN avoids intruding on the zon e s

closest to China while making strong bids for the So uth and So ut hwe s t , wh i ch have

the gre a test econ omic po ten ti a l , by placing 40 points each on these. A modest bi d

for the East (20 poi n t s ) — wh i ch China was wi lling to give up on com p l etely in two

of its three scen a rios—is also a fe a tu re of this scen a ri o.

A 2 . Co n cen tra tion of co n trol.ASEAN cedes po l i tical con trol in the North Cen tral and

econ omic con trol in the So ut hwest to Ch i n a . By con cen tra ting its points on the

So uth Cen tra l ,E a s t , and So ut h — with all oc a ti ons of 3 0 , 3 0 , and 40 poi n t s , re s pectively—ASEAN tries to force China into non con tiguous zon e s ,t h ereby imped i n g

Ch i n a’s po l i ti co - m i l i t a ry con trol over the en ti re So uth China Se a . The specific procedu re for the all oc a ti on of points in this example is provi ded in the appen d i x .

C o n c l u s i o n s

AW is a stri k i n gly simple set t l em ent procedu re that takes into account the interests of

t wo parties in a dispute . Its properties of env y - f reen e s s , equ i t a bi l i ty, ef f i c i en c y, and practi-
cal stra tegy - proofness make the set t l em ent the faire s t , in several sen s e s , that the parti e s

can ach i eve .

Si n ce the set t l em ent is not the produ ct of pro tracted nego ti a ti on s , except po s s i bly to

define the issues and what winning and losing mean, it is likely to lead to a more sati s f ying and du ra ble outcome than trad i ti onal med i a ti on provi de s . In intern a ti onal dispute s ,

in parti c u l a r, it would prob a bly fo s ter more amicable futu re rel a ti ons bet ween the disp ut a n t s .

The fact that AW en a bles the disputants to circ u mvent en dless haggling and po s s i bl e

impasse is cl e a rly a social good , but it may not please all facti ons in a con f l i ct ,s ome of

wh om may ben efit from its con ti nu a ti on . Here ,m ed i a tors can play a va lu a ble role in

h elping the parties not on ly define the issues but also make point assign m ents in a way

that ref l ects the interests of a ll facti ons they purport to repre s en t .

While hon e s ty in making assign m ents is gen era lly a sound po l i c y, the parties wi ll need

to be assu red of t h i s . Al s o, t h ey wi ll need assistance in sorting out their vi ews in order to

m a ke acc u ra te assessments of the qu a n ti t a tive va lue of obtaining different goods or wi nning on different issu e s . Because their ju d gm ents are determ i n a tive in the set t l em en t , AW

en co u ra ges them to take re s pon s i bi l i ty for their acti on s , ra t h er than pinning blame on an

o ut s i de party. For ex a m p l e ,u n der conven ti onal med i a ti on ,d i s p utants might claim that

the med i a tor “p u s h ed ”t h em into an agreem en t .

Med i a ti on is of little help if rel a tively unstru ctu red nego ti a ti ons leave the parties wi t ho ut a procedu re for re aching cl o su re . AW provi des the discipline of a formal process that

a ll ows the disputants to speak for them s elve s . In ef fect , AW gives bi te to the role of t h e

m ed i a tor,who can devo te his or her main ef fort to helping the parties define the issu e s

and assign points to them , ra t h er than trying to cajole them into an agreem en t . No other

practical procedu re that I know of provi des for this.

Adjusted Winner Theory 1 1
1 2

Part II: Simu l a t i o n s

Chapter 3

C o m p u t e r-Based Simulat i o n :

A n t a rctic Tre aty and Fa l k l a n d s / M a l v i n a s

N e g o t i at i o n s

This proj ect applies new inform a ti on tech n o l ogies to te aching a series of six nego tia ti on and med i a ti on ro l e - p l aying simu l a ti on s . Two geopo l i tical set ti n gs —

An t a rctica and the Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvi n a s — a re each loo ked at in “h i s tori c a l ,”

“recen t ,” and “f utu re” s cen a ri o s . For An t a rcti c a , these invo lve , re s pectively, ex a m i n a ti on s

of the 1959 tre a ty, the Mad rid Pro tocol of 1 9 9 1 , and an imagi n a ry futu re nego ti a ti on

revo lving around the discovery of oil in 2045. The Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvinas simu l a ti ons begi n

with a histori c a lly based one set pri or to 1982 and con ti nue with the “recen t” war of

Apri l - June 1982 to another hypo t h eti c a l , a mid-21st cen tu ry con f l a gra ti on .

The An t a rctic nego ti a ti ons are mu l ti l a tera l , with up to fifty nati ons invo lved , as well as

s everal con s erva ti on or ga n i z a ti ons and com m ercial firm s . The Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvinas simul a ti ons invo lve two major players , the Un i ted Ki n gdom and Ar gen ti n a ,a l t h o u gh other

actors , su ch as the Is l a n d s’ l ocal inhabitants (the “ Kel pers” ) , the Un i ted State s , and severa l

L a tin Am erican nati on s , a re also invo lved . These simu l a ti ons also invo lve a nu m ber of

m ed i a tors , su ch as the Sec ret a ry - G en eral of the Un i ted Na ti on s , the pre s i dent of a Lati n

Am erican nati on , and the Sec ret a ry of S t a te of the Un i ted State s . The new tech n o l ogi e s

a pp l i ed to these simu l a ti ons were the pers onal com p uter and its CD-ROM (Com p act

Di s k — Re ad Only Mem ory) capabi l i ty linked to several appropri a te pieces of s of t w a re .

N ew Info r m ation Te c h n o l o gi e s

The pers onal com p uter has now put at the disposal of most co ll ege stu dents and fac u l ty

a mu l ti m edia devi ce capable of h a n dling large amounts of word - processing doc u m en t s ,

bi bl i ogra phic databases and vi su a l s , both sti ll and vi deo. C D - ROMs curren t ly being used

h ave incre a s i n gly large stora ge capabi l i ti e s , in the ra n ge of 650 mega byte s . This means

that a single 4 3/4 inch plastic disk can store the equ iva l ent of a bo ut 250,000 pages of tex t

and bet ween 500 and 2,000 co l or image s .

At the same ti m e , the cost and com p l ex i ty of the equ i pm ent requ i red to prep a re

( “bu rn”) CD-ROM disks have diminished con s i dera bly, so that for abo ut the cost of a

com p uter te ach ers can purchase a CD-ROM “bu rn er ” and the scanning hardw a re that

permits them to digi ti ze doc u m ents and vi su a l s .

b y

Jack Child
The sof t w a re used in this particular proj ect were simple Mac i n tosh pack a ge s ,a l t h o u gh

equ iva l ent sof t w a re exists for com p uters with MS-DO S – b a s ed opera ting sys tem s . Th e

principal sof t w a re pack a ges used were :

Fi l em a ker, a database program em p l oyed mainly for the bi bl i ogra phy, s i n ce it permits easy sorting and re a rra n ging of l a r ge qu a n ti ties of files (the bi bl i ogra ph i e s

i nvo lved almost 4,000 en tri e s ) .

Mi cro soft Wo rd, a conven ti onal word - processing program used for su ch items as the

m on ogra ph on nego ti a ti on , the ch ron o l ogy, and the instru cti ons for the simu l ati on s .

S c a n t a s ti c and Mi cro sc a n scanning sof t w a re that, wh en used in con ju n cti on with the

a ppropri a te hardw a re , perm i t ted the digi tizing of doc u m en t s , ph o togra ph s ,a n d

s l i de s .

Ph oto s h op, a vi sual manipulati on sof t w a re pack a ge .

Ma cro m edia Di re cto r, a soph i s ti c a ted mu l ti m edia sof t w a re pack a ge that integra tes all

the simu l a ti on el em ents into a vi sual pre s en t a ti on , wh i ch can be made interactive by

using “hot but ton s” and hypertex t , perm i t ting the user to move around the progra m

ei t h er in the linear directi on set out by the aut h or or to wh a tever secti on is of i n tere s t .

The key adva n t a ge provi ded by these new tech n o l ogies is that a very large amount of textual and vi sual material can be placed on a phys i c a lly small disk and du p l i c a ted as many

times as nece s s a ry so that each stu dent can have the whole pack a ge instantly at her / h i s

f i n gerti p s . The con tents of the disk can also be placed on the World Wi de Web or distri buted com m erc i a lly.

The End Pro d u c t s

The nego ti a ti on / m ed i a ti on simu l a ti on s’ end produ cts are two CD-RO M s , one for the

An t a rctica proj ect and one for the Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvi n a s . The va rious el em ents can be

down l oaded and pri n ted as de s i red . E ach disk inclu de s :

Two ex ten s ive bi bl i ogra ph i e s , a gen eral su bj ect bi bl i ogra phy on nego ti a ti on and

m ed i a ti on and a case-specific bi bl i ogra phy com bining An t a rctica and the

Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvinas (over 3,000 en tri e s ) . The majori ty of the bi bl i ogra phy is in

E n gl i s h ,a l t h o u gh a significant nu m ber of en tries are in Spanish, and some are in

Portu g u e s e . This em phasis on Spanish-language materials ref l ects the fact that the

m a terials are also ava i l a ble in that language for use in co ll ege co u rses taught in

S p a n i s h .

A mon ogra ph on nego ti a ti on prep a red by the principal inve s ti ga tor as an introdu cti on to gen eral and theoretical approaches to med i a ti on and nego ti a ti on . Th e

m on ogra ph con clu des with a ch eck l i s t , wh i ch the stu dent uses as a fra m ework to

Computer-Based Simulation 1 3
1 4 Computer-Based Simulation

a n a ly ze (in wri ting) the simu l a ted nego ti a ti on . The nu m ber of po s s i ble qu e s ti on s ,

and the detail with wh i ch they are answered , can easily make this part of the nego tia ti on equ iva l ent to a short term paper.

Several thousand pages of doc u m ents and other materials in the public dom a i n .

These are or ga n i zed into gen eral materials ava i l a ble to all players and packets of

m a terials for each assign ed role in the simu l a ti on .

Back ground re ad i n gs . Some of these re ad i n gs were wri t ten by the principal inve s tiga tor; s ome are govern m ent doc u m ents or other materials in the public dom a i n .

An interactive mu l ti m edia pre s en t a ti on . This com bines tex t , vi su a l s ,m a pm a k i n g

exerc i s e s , and qu e s ti ons to provi de back ground inform a ti on for the simu l a ti on s .

In s tru cti ons for the ro l e - p l aying simu l a ti on . These take the stu dent (and the

i n s tru ctor) from the materials listed above to the actual simu l a ti on in the cl a s s room .

E ach stu dent is assign ed a ro l e , ei t h er as a co u n try or or ga n i z a ti on repre s en t a tive , or

as a historical figure .

Conducting the Simulat i o n s

Wh en used in a univers i ty co u rse the six simu l a ti ons provi ded more than en o u gh materials for a fo u rteen - week sem e s ter. The first simu l a ti on in each geogra phic set ting was

u s ed in a passive analytical mode that invo lved re ading and answering qu e s ti ons drawn

f rom the “ In trodu cti on to Nego ti a ti on” ch eck l i s t s . This approach provi ded a useful historical base from wh i ch to move on to the four ro l e - p l aying simu l a ti on s . O f the fo u r, t h e

t wo that occ u rred most recen t ly (for An t a rctica the 1991 Mad rid Envi ron m en t a l

Pro toco l , and for the Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvinas the 1982 War) were the most con s training since

the players were asked to take po s i ti ons that were re a s on a bly close to what actu a lly happen ed . Feed b ack from stu dents indicated that while they learn ed from this proce s s ,t h ey

felt they could not fully use their imagi n a ti on or cre a tivi ty.

But it was tu rn ed loose in the two simu l a ti ons set in the futu re , wh en the stu dent ro l e -

p l ayers were told they could use any approach they wi s h ed to the nego ti a ti on and med i ati on proce s s . The cl a s s room situ a ti on was “f ree play,” so that stu dents could caucus in

t h eir groups or nego ti a te and med i a te with other players . The An t a rctic simu l a ti on

i nvo lved the hypo t h etical discovery (in the year 2045) of a large oil field on the An t a rcti c

Pen i n su l a , wh i ch is espec i a lly sen s i tive since it is su bj ect to overl a pping claims by

Ar gen ti n a , Ch i l e , and Great Bri t a i n . The Ma lvi n a s / Falklands set ting was in the middle of

the twen ty - f i rst cen tu ry, wh en joint devel opm ent of fishing and oil re s o u rces bet ween

Ar gen tina and Great Britain (po s tu l a ted on the basis of a real 1995 agreem ent) begins to

break down over a nu m ber of i s su e s , not least the push for po l i tical indepen den ce by a

very ri ch group of Is l a n ders who had gre a t ly prof i ted from oil roya l ties and the sale of

fishing licen s e s .
U t i l i z ation and Te s t i n g

The full simu l a ti ons men ti on ed in the last para gra ph were carri ed out in a sem e s ter

co u rse (37.356/656 An t a rctica and Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvinas) at The Am erican Un ivers i ty in

the fall 1996 sem e s ter, in Engl i s h .An abbrevi a ted vers i on was used in a two - week porti on

of a gen eral edu c a ti on co u rse at the same univers i ty, also in English (Latin Am eri c a :

Hi s tory, Art ,L i tera tu re ) . The first Spanish vers i on of the mu l ti m edia porti on was developed in late 1996 and first used in the spring 1997 sem e s ter in several Spanish language

cl a s s e s . The language te aching el em en t , wh i ch su pp l em ents the nego ti a ti on / m ed i a ti on

com pon en t ,i nvo lves para ll el Spanish and English screens with the same vi sual el em en t s .

S tu dents running the program in Spanish may get instant tra n s l a ti on by cl i cking on a hot

but ton ,a f ter wh i ch they retu rn to Spanish.

E va l u ation and Fe e d b a ck

At each stage stu dents were asked to provi de wri t ten feed b ack on the simu l a ti ons and the

va lue of the new tech n o l ogi e s . The re sults have been almost uniform ly po s i tive and genera ted nu m erous su gge s ti ons for ch a n ges and improvem en t s , as well as iden ti f ying confusing areas and technical difficulti e s .

Si mu l a ti ons have a long history of ef fectiveness in the stu dy and te aching of i n tern ati onal rel a ti ons and pe acem a k i n g / pe ace keep i n g. The po s i tive eva lu a ti ons have served to

con f i rm that this is an ef fective met h od of te aching both con cepts and practi c a l

a pproach e s .

The ad d i ti on of the com p uter to cl a s s room simu l a ti ons has given stu dents access to a

very large amount of tex tual and vi sual inform a ti on that they would not otherwise easily

h ave ava i l a bl e . While it is true that the material could have been provi ded in a bi n der or

boo k , the sheer vo lume (abo ut 3,000 pages) would make it unwi el dy and pro h i bi tively

ex pen s ive . Put ting material on libra ry re s erve is an opti on , but not a very attractive on e .

Having it digi ti zed and ava i l a ble on a floppy disk or CD-ROM is an ideal soluti on for this

type of a pp l i c a ti on .

The pre s en t a ti on of the vi sual material in an interactive program would be po s s i bl e ,i n

a limited form , in a cl a s s room via slide lectu re s . But these lectu res would be linear and

i n teractive on ly in a very limited sen s e .O n ce they had been pre s en ted , the instru ctor

would prob a bly not be able or wi lling to pre s ent them a second or third time for stu den t s

who might have been absent or who wi s h ed to revi ew. This is made fe a s i ble by put ti n g

m a terial on the CD-ROM and making it ava i l a ble to each stu den t .

A qu a n ti t a tive measu re of the impact of the com p uter- b a s ed simu l a ti on and assoc i a ted materials can be obt a i n ed from the stu dent eva lu a ti on of te ach i n g. At Am eri c a n

Un ivers i ty each co u rse is anonym o u s ly eva lu a ted by each stu den t . The nu m erical eva lu ati ons then are made public after the co u rse is finished and all grades are tu rn ed in.

Re sults are telling wh en one com p a res the eva lu a ti ons for the spring 1995 co u rse on

An t a rctica and the Fa l k l a n d s / Ma lvi n a s , wh i ch did not have the CD-ROMs ava i l a bl e ,t h e

f a ll 1996 co u rs e , wh i ch introdu ced them , and the fall 1997 co u rs e , wh i ch used a ref i n ed

vers i on . S tu dents gave the co u rse ra ti n gs of 5 . 5 3 ,5 . 7 1 , and 5.89 points for the three

s em e s ters , re s pectively, o ut of a po s s i ble ra ting of 6 . 0 0 .

Computer-Based Simulation 1 5
C o n c l u s i o n

The limited test of the com p uter- b a s ed nego ti a ti on / m ed i a ti on simu l a ti on has yi el ded

very po s i tive re su l t s . For the instru ctor it has of fered an opportu n i ty to use a fresh and

s ti mu l a ting ped a gogical approach . S tu dent re acti on in this TV- and com p uter- ori en ted

gen era ti on has also been gra ti f ying and su ggests that this type of i n s tru cti on is a wel com e

ch a n ge that does not lose the su b s t a n tive ri gor nece s s a ry for the high er- order interacti on s

in class after the com p uter porti ons are com p l eted .

1 6 Computer-Based Simulation
Chapter 4

Crisis Negotiation Environment Pro j e c t

I

t is wi dely con ten ded that crisis nego ti a ti ons differ su b s t a n ti a lly from more ro uti n e

n ego ti a ti ons in that they are ch a racteri zed by dec i s i on - m a ker percepti ons of h i gh

t h reat to basic va lu e s , s h ort time for re s pon s e , and hei gh ten ed prob a bi l i ty of h o s ti l iti e s . Un der su ch circ u m s t a n ce s , dec i s i on makers are of ten unable to access the inform ati on nece s s a ry to make uti l i ty maximizing dec i s i on s , or they are unable to properly

eva lu a te the inform a ti on in the amount of time ava i l a ble for dec i s i on s . Hen ce , dec i s i on s

a re of ten made on the basis of previous ex peri en ce ,l on g - h eld bel i efs , and analogies to

s eem i n gly com p a ra ble situ a ti ons ra t h er than with cold analytic calculati on . As a con s equ en ce , su boptimal outcomes are likely. While all dec i s i on-making envi ron m ents may go

wron g, the po ten tial con s equ en ces of i n tern a ti onal crises are parti c u l a rly dangero u s

because they can qu i ck ly escalate to vi o l en ce and war. The vast litera tu re of c risis dec i s i on

making has shown that situ a ti ons of i n tense crisis can cre a te a redu ced span of a t ten ti on ,

cogn i tive ri gi d i ty, and a distorted sense of ti m e .

The core of the Crisis Nego ti a ti on Envi ron m ent Proj ect is the devel opm ent of a stra tegic model of n ego ti a ti on , with an accom p a nying dec i s i on su pport sys tem (DSS), a comp uter program that helps a player analy ze a nego ti a ti on probl em and iden tifies po s s i bl e

a l tern a tive stra tegies (see Kra u s , Wi l ken fel d , and Zlotkin 1995; Wi l ken fel d , Kra u s ,a n d

Ho ll ey 1998a, 1 9 9 8 b ) . These two tools are em p l oyed to fac i l i t a te training in nego ti a ti on

s tra tegy and in the ex p l ora ti on of t h eories of n ego ti a ti on thro u gh ex peri m ental work .

This su m m a ry de s c ri bes the re sults of a series of ex peri m ents based on the Gen era l i zed

Dec i s i on Su pport Sys tem ,k n own as “G en i e ,” and the Ho s t a ge Crisis Si mu l a ti on . Some of

the ex peri m ents were con du cted with funding from the Na ti onal Scien ce Fo u n d a ti on

and were begun before the In s ti tute of Pe ace gra n t . However, s i n ce toget h er they con s titute a unified re s e a rch agen d a , the su m m a ry inclu des the whole series of ex peri m ents to

d a te .

Dec i s i on su pport sys tems can play a crucial role in crisis dec i s i on making by all owi n g

the dec i s i on maker to navi ga te large amounts of i n form a ti on qu i ck ly and to ex p l ore rel ati onships bet ween factors that may influ en ce the dec i s i on . A DSS can also fac i l i t a te the

s i mu l t a n eous eva lu a ti on of mu l tiple po s i ti ons in crisis nego ti a ti on s . This can play a dec is ive role in re a l - time nego ti a ti ons by all owing the su pported parties to ra p i dly formu l a te

dynamic stra tegies and qu i ck ly eva lu a te their advers a ri e s’ propo s a l s . Thu s , a cen tra l

em phasis of this re s e a rch is that, using a DSS, a crisis dec i s i on maker can help nego ti a tors

s ec u re a bet ter de a l , or in the language of n ego ti a ti on theory, m a x i m i ze their uti l i ty.

Rel a ted to this is the noti on that groups of dec i s i on makers su pported by a DSS are in a

good po s i ti on to ach i eve soluti ons that are bet ter for all parties to the talks. That is, a DSS

can help prevent “ I - wi n - a t - yo u r- ex pen s e” o utcom e s .

1 7

b y

J o n a t h a n

Wilkenfeld and

Sarit Kraus
R e s e a rch Questions and Findings

The ex peri m ental re sults ad d ress three broad groups of re s e a rch qu e s ti on s : the impact of

the use of dec i s i on su pport sys tems on the uti l i ty maximizing beh avi or of c risis nego ti ators ;h ow the dynamics of c risis nego ti a ti ons affect their outcom e s ; and the rel a ti on s h i p

bet ween the cogn i tive devel opm ent levels of c risis dec i s i on makers and the outcomes of

c risis nego ti a ti on s .All ex peri m ents were con du cted with Un ivers i ty of Ma ryland undergradu a tes as su bj ects bet ween 1991 and 1996.

The initial set of ex peri m en t s , reported in Kraus et al. (1992) and Ho ll ey and

Wi l ken feld (1994), foc u s ed on two re s e a rch qu e s ti on s : f i rs t , wh et h er use of a soph i s ti c a ted com p uteri zed dec i s i on su pport sys tem increases the likel i h ood of h i gh er payof fs to the

i n d ivi dual nego ti a tors ; s econ d , wh et h er com mu n i c a ti ons patterns ex h i bi ted by parti c ipants in a simu l a ti on that en ded in a nego ti a ted agreem ent differ from those ex h i bi ted by

p l ayers in simu l a ti ons that en ded in non a greem ent (that is, vi o l en ce ) .

In these ex peri m en t s ,p l ayers are asked to assume roles in an imagi n a ry scen a rio in

wh i ch Sikh sep a ra tists have hijacked an airplane and both the Pakistani and Indian govern m en t s , de s p i te their own long-standing con f l i ct , must nego ti a te a soluti on to a standof f . Ex peri m ental re sults indicate that rega rdless of t h eir roles in the simu l a ti on — In d i a n

govern m en t , Pakistani govern m en t , or Sikh hijackers—DSS users had high er avera ge

uti l i ty scores at the con clu s i on of the simu l a ti on than nonu s ers .In ad d i ti on ,m ore DSS

u s ers than nonu s ers had ach i eved agreem en t .

The key to differen ti a ting bet ween crisis nego ti a ti ons that en ded in agreem ent and

those that evo lved to vi o l en ce lies in the com mu n i c a ti ons patterns ex h i bi ted by those

p l aying the role of Pakistan in the simu l a ti on—the role most open to med i a ti on . In

i n s t a n ces wh ere agreem ent was re ach ed ,“ Pa k i s t a n” s ent a vi rtu a lly iden tical nu m ber of

m e s s a ges to each of the other two parti e s . Wh en agreem ent did not occ u r, it was discovered that Pakistan had sent three times as many messages to India as to the hijackers .

Thu s , we con clu ded that by maintaining open com mu n i c a ti ons ch a n n els with each of

the other parti e s , Pakistan was able to play a cen tral role in bri n ging abo ut pe aceful re s oluti on of the cri s i s .

A second set of ex peri m en t s ,reported in Wi l ken feld et al. ( 1 9 9 5 a ,1 9 9 5 b ) , con ti nu ed

the ex p l ora ti on of re s e a rch qu e s ti ons pertaining to the impact of a dec i s i on su pport system on nego ti a ti on processes and outcom e s . The first inve s ti ga ted wh et h er DSS users are

m ore likely than non-DSS users to iden tify uti l i ty maximizati on as the pri m a ry obj ective

in a crisis nego ti a ti on situ a ti on . The fo ll ow-up asked wh et h er DSS users ach i eve high er

uti l i ty scores than non-DSS users .

Re s e a rch findings su pported the con ten ti on that DSS users were most stron gly motiva ted by uti l i ty maximizati on , while non-DSS users ten ded to be motiva ted most stron gly to uphold pri n c i p l e s . These dec i s i on makers appear to have been overwh el m ed by the

vast amount of i n form a ti on ava i l a ble and the difficulty of c a l c u l a ting the uti l i ty of d i f ferent acti ons under the pre s su res of n ego ti a ti on . Th ey were thus led to rely upon deep ly

h eld pri n c i p l e s . The DSS users were able to calculate uti l i ties qu i ck ly and ef f i c i en t ly and

were ,t h erefore ,a ble to act as uti l i ty maximizers . Not on ly does access to the DSS en co u ra ge the actors to be motiva ted by uti l i ty maximizati on , in our re s e a rch DSS users have

1 8 Crisis Negotiation Environment Project
proven more su ccessful than their non-DSS co u n terp a rts in actu a lly ach i eving high er

uti l i ty score s .

Ad d i ti on a lly, we found that the pre s en ce of a DSS-su pported user among advers a ri e s

in a crisis situ a ti on produ ces high er overa ll uti l i ty scores than groups in wh i ch none of

the advers a ries has su ch acce s s . Our re sults also show that the pre s en ce of even one DSSsu pported user among a group of advers a ries is likely to re sult in a high er overa ll uti l i ty

s core for the gro u p, that is, a mutu a lly ben eficial re s o luti on of the cri s i s . Re sults also conf i rm that those nego ti a ti ons in wh i ch a DSS user is pre s ent are more likely to end in

a greem ent than in some type of vi o l ent outcom e . In these cases, an indivi dual dec i s i on

m a ker ’s access to DSS helps iden tify a mutu a lly ben eficial outcom e ,h ere iden ti f i ed wi t h

ach i eving agreem en t .

The third line of ex peri m ents (Wi l ken feld et al. 1 9 9 6 , 1997) was de s i gn ed to assess the

i m p act of the cogn i tive com p l ex i ty of dec i s i on makers on their beh avi or in crisis nego ti ati on situ a ti ons and on the outcomes they attain. These ex peri m ents were de s i gn ed to

s tu dy the rel a ti onship bet ween cogn i tive com p l ex i ty and nego ti a ti on beh avi or, in an

ef fort to bet ter understand the dynamics that lead certain pers ons to have gre a ter su cce s s

in nego ti a ti ons and certain groups of advers a ries to ach i eve more mutu a lly ben ef i c i a l

o utcom e s . The underlying assu m pti on is that the more cogn i tive com p l ex i ty the indivi dual bri n gs to the crisis nego ti a ti on , the more likely that the process of a rriving at dec is i ons wi ll re sult in uti l i ty maximizati on—that is to say, the bet ter edu c a ted nego ti a tor wi ll

a rrive at a bet ter de a l . An o t h er ex pect a ti on is that indivi duals at high er levels of cogn i tive

com p l ex i ty wi ll be bet ter able to cope with crises than those at lower level s . In parti c u l a r,

the perceived shortness of time for re s pon s e , com bi n ed with tru n c a ted and re s tri cted

com mu n i c a ti ons among the parti e s , wi ll fru s tra te nego ti a tors at the lower levels of cogn itive com p l ex i ty and gen era te su boptimal outcom e s .

Summary of Results

The re sults of this series of ex peri m ents are best su m m a ri zed as fo ll ows . Su bj ects at higher levels of cogn i tive com p l ex i ty devel oped gre a ter prof i c i ency with the DSS and were

a ble to master more of the qu ery tools it con t a i n s . The ex peri m ents did not show an

overa ll rel a ti onship bet ween cogn i tive com p l ex i ty and crisis outcom e , ei t h er in terms of

ach i eving high scores in the crisis simu l a ti on or gre a ter likel i h ood of re aching agreem en t .

We spec u l a te abo ut the difficulty that su bj ects with low cogn i tive com p l ex i ty have in taking on the roles of o t h ers and with assigning uti l i ty to hypo t h etical events and have

ob s erved that no su bj ect s , no matter how high their cogn i tive devel opm en t , were simply

m a s ters of t h eir own de s ti n i e s . Ex a m i n a ti on of roles reve a l ed that those who repre s en ted

actors with similar ch a racteri s tics and motiva ti ons to their own showed a strong rel a ti onship bet ween level of cogn i tive com p l ex i ty and the ach i evem ent of h i gh uti l i ty scores in

the simu l a ti on .

While nei t h er indivi dual su bj ects nor crisis participants gro u ped by cogn i tive comp l ex i ty level were more likely than others to ach i eve crisis term i n a ti on thro u gh agreem en t , we did find that pri or ex po su re to the principles of i n tern a ti onal po l i tics and

n ego ti a ti on re su l ted in a mu ch gre a ter abi l i ty to re ach agreem ents and to solve intern ati onal crises nonvi o l en t ly.

Crisis Negotiation Environment Project 1 9
A final set of ex peri m en t s , run in fall 1996, foc u s ed ex p l i c i t ly on the qu e s ti on of h ow

the mix of cogn i tive com p l ex i ty scores among crisis nego ti a ti on advers a ries affects the

o utcomes of these nego ti a ti on s .An ex peri m ental de s i gn ch a racteri zed some groups of

c risis nego ti a tors by wi de dispari ties in their cogn i tive com p l ex i ty, while other gro u p s

were ch a racteri zed by similari ty. The re sults cl e a rly showed that groups with dispara te

cogn i tive com p l ex i ty levels ten ded overwh el m i n gly to term i n a te their crisis nego ti a ti on s

wi t h o ut agreem ent and with vi o l en ce , while groups whose mem bers had similar cogn itive com p l ex i ty levels ten ded overwh el m i n gly to be able to re ach agreem en t .

C o n c l u s i o n

We bel i eve that there are several important gen eral con clu s i ons that can alre ady be

d rawn , even though our re s e a rch program is not yet com p l ete .F i rs t , it is clear that in

most circ u m s t a n ce s , access to soph i s ti c a ted dec i s i on su pport sof t w a re can fac i l i t a te bet ter

c risis dec i s i on making. The Genie DSS all ows dec i s i on makers in crisis to build qu i ck ly

on scen a rios of on going cri s e s , com p l ete with their best esti m a tes of the uti l i ty functi on s

that motiva te the va rious parti e s , and produ ce proj ecti ons of va rious propo s ed outcom e s . In this way, t h ey wi ll be able to wed tech n o l ogy with case-based knowl ed ge and

become more ef fective dec i s i on makers .

We have also learn ed a con s i dera ble amount abo ut the impact of certain pers on a l i ty

f actors on crisis dec i s i on making. In parti c u l a r,we have found that large dispari ties in the

cogn i tive com p l ex i ty of dec i s i on makers in crisis are likely to lead to su boptimal outcom e s . Crisis advers a ries who share rel a tively similar levels of cogn i tive com p l ex i ty are

m ore likely to maximize both indivi dual and group uti l i ti e s . Pa rticipants who used our

DSS con s i s ten t ly “ won” in the simu l a ted nego ti a ti ons against those who did not. Wh en

a ll sides used it, t h ey re ach ed bet ter overa ll agreem en t s .

While it is clear that we cannot ch oose our advers a ries based on their cogn i tive developm ent level s , it is nevert h eless hel pful to know how these factors affect the proce s s . Th e

m ore inform a ti on we have on our advers a ri e s , the bet ter equ i pped we are to devel op

n ego ti a ti on stra tegies that lead to favora ble outcom e s .In the particular cases ex a m i n ed

h ere ,s i m i l a ri ties in cogn i tive com p l ex i ty are most likely to lead to the ach i evem ent of

a greem en t , ra t h er than the use of vi o l en ce , in re s o lving crisis situ a ti on s .

2 0 Crisis Negotiation Environment Project
2 1

Chapter 5

S t rengthening the Biological We a p o n s

C o n vention: A Teaching Simulat i o n

This te aching material is a com p l ex ,h i gh ly flex i bl e ,c u rren t , re a l - worl d – b a s ed

n ego ti a ti on simu l a ti on in the area of mu l ti l a teral arms con tro l . Its su bj ect is the

n ego ti a ti ons for a lega lly binding pro tocol to stren g t h en the Bi o l ogical We a pon s

Conven ti on (BWC ) . The BWC , in force since 1975, bans the po s s e s s i on of bi o l ogical and

toxin we a pon s , but has no mechanisms to mon i tor or verify com p l i a n ce . Si n ce 1995, t h e

142 parties to the conven ti on have been meeting in Gen eva to re s o lve the issues that are

laid out in this simu l a ti on . The simu l a ti on is de s i gn ed to all ow under gradu a te univers i ty

s tu dents to gra pple with some of the most important issues that co u n tries wh i ch have

a greed to the BWC are discussing in the Ad Hoc Group cre a ted to devel op proposals for

a lega lly binding instru m en t .

The simu l a ti on is appropri a te for any nego ti a ti ons co u rs e ,p a rti c u l a rly one invo lvi n g

i n tern a ti onal nego ti a ti on s . It would also be appropri a te for a co u rse in intern a ti onal rel ati on s , i n tern a ti onal sec u ri ty po l i c y, a rms con tro l , or a rel a ted fiel d . The simu l a ti on was

f i rst run in Ju ly 1997 at a NATO Adva n ced Studies In s ti tute in Bu d a pe s t , wh i ch inclu ded

p a rticipants from twen ty - one co u n tri e s .

Teaching Objective s

Th ro u gh the simu l a ti on ,s tu dent learning ad d resses three are a s :

The su b s t a n ce of mu l ti l a teral arms con tro l , in particular bi o l ogical we a pon s .

The process of com p l ex mu l ti - i s su e , mu l ti p a rty, mu l ti l ayer nego ti a ti on s .

The devel opm ent of n ego ti a ti on skill s .

Within these three are a s ,s tu dents come to understand the import a n ce of i s sue salien ce

and trade - of fs , probl ems with mu l tiple obj ectives in any co u n try ’s forei gn po l i c y, and the

d i f f i c u l ties of coming to con s en su s . Th ey also learn the va lue of con s tru cting and pres en ting cogent arguments for their co u n try ’s po s i ti on on issues and the role of l e aders h i p

in cra f ting agreem en t s . The simu l a ti on bri n gs the nego ti a ti ons to life and helps stu den t s

a pp ly and cri ti que su ch theories as coa l i ti on theory, s m a ll group theory, or leaders h i p

t h eory to explain the su cce s s ,p a rtial su cce s s , or failu re of n ego ti a ti on s . The learn i n g

ex peri en ce of s tu dents can be augm en ted with a wri t ten assign m ent ref l ecting som e

a s pect of the simu l a ti on .

b y

Marie Isabelle

C h e v r i e r
Scenarios for Use

The full simu l a ti on imagines a scen a rio including twelve “co u n tri e s” and five work i n g

groups and is de s i gn ed for a class size of s i x ty. The full simu l a ti on would take a minimum of f ive hours but could be divi ded into mu l tiple sessions of forty - f ive to ninety

m i nute s ,s ome of wh i ch could easily take place out s i de cl a s s .

The simu l a ti on can be re ad i ly ad a pted to small er or larger class size and shorter ti m e

peri ods by con cen tra ting on a small er nu m ber of working gro u p s — a ny nu m ber from

one to five . One might also work with a small er nu m ber of co u n tri e s , being careful to

maintain regi onal balance as well as a mix of s m a ll and large co u n tri e s , with differen t

n ego ti a ti on interests and obj ective s .

M at e r i a l s

The simu l a ti on consists of a set of gen eral instru cti ons for all simu l a ti on participants and

con f i den tial instru cti ons for each of t welve co u n tries taking part in the simu l a ti on . Th e

gen eral instru cti ons for participants inclu de :

An introdu cti on to the simu l a ti on and the re a l - world nego ti a ti on s .

A list of the twelve co u n tri e s .

The or ga n i z a ti on of the simu l a ti on .

A de s c ri pti on of the three types of m eeti n gs : co u n try del ega ti on meeti n gs , work i n g

group meeti n gs , and plen a ry sessions with all parti c i p a n t s .

A de s c ri pti on of the role of caucuses in these nego ti a ti on s .

A bri ef n o te on the process of a co u n try ’s ch a n ging its po s i ti on on an issu e , wh i ch

i nvo lves con su l t a ti on with that co u n try ’s “forei gn minister.”

A bri ef b ack ground on the su b s t a n tive issues covered in each of the five work i n g

groups and key qu e s ti ons that each group is striving to answer.

The con f i den tial instru cti ons for each co u n try de s c ri be its po s i ti on on each of t h e

i s sues under nego ti a ti on in the working gro u p s . The simu l a ti on materials inclu de , for the

i n s tru ctor, a spre ad s h eet set ting out all co u n tries and their po s i ti ons on all issues at a

gl a n ce .

Running the Simulat i o n

The first step is assigning ro l e s . One week before the start of the simu l a ti on ,e ach parti c ipant should be assign ed to one co u n try del ega ti on and to one working gro u p. E ach

co u n try should have five mem bers in its del ega ti on , one for each working gro u p.

Si m i l a rly, e ach working group should have twelve parti c i p a n t s , one from each co u n try. In

ad d i ti on , one mem ber of e ach del ega ti on should be assign ed to head it, and one mem ber

of e ach working group should be asked to ch a i r. If t h ere are ex tra stu den t s , the head of

2 2 Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention
the del ega ti on need not be in any working gro u p, but could roam among them .

Si m i l a rly, s m a ll er co u n tries need not nece s s a ri ly have a del ega te to all of the work i n g

gro u p s .( In deed , in real life ,s m a ll del ega ti ons of ten cover many working groups and have

to deal with the unfortu n a te fact that the bi gger, ri ch er co u n tries can afford bi gger del ega ti on s . )

The role of the forei gn minister is also import a n t .In the instru cti on s ,a ll parti c i p a n t s

a re told that they must con sult with their forei gn ministers before ch a n ging po s i ti on on

a ny issue under nego ti a ti on . The role of the forei gn minister is best played by the instru ctor or te aching assistant. The forei gn minister should re s pond to all requests in the same

w ay, f i rs t , by asking why the del ega te thinks the po s i ti on should be ch a n ged . (This step

requ i res participants to formu l a te re a s ons for ch a n ge.) Secon d , the forei gn minister

should ask if the del ega te recom m ends this ch a n ge , and third , he should get the approva l

of the del ega ti on head .F i n a lly, the forei gn minister should approve all re a s on a bly well

ju s ti f i ed ch a n ges in po s i ti on .

This procedu re , of co u rs e , means that the instru ctor is more len i ent than a forei gn

m i n i s ter would be in real life . However, s tu dents learn more if given free rein with ch a n ging po s i ti on s .In the debri ef i n g, the instru ctor can point out the dep a rtu res from re a l - l i fe

n ego ti a ti on s .

The simu l a ti on takes place over five sessions of one hour each ,a l t h o u gh instru ctors

m ay va ry the sch edule as they prefer. It is important to have a mix of working group sess i ons and co u n try del ega ti on meeti n gs ,a l t h o u gh this mix, too, can be altered by the

i n s tru ctor. The plen a ry meeting at the end of the simu l a ti on all ows each working gro u p

to report on agreem ents it has re ach ed and what issu e s ,i f a ny, remain unre s o lved .

Working groups should be en co u ra ged to put their con clu s i ons in wri ti n g.

D e b r i e fi n g

The simu l a ti on ends with a debri ef i n g, wh i ch should be ge a red tow a rd the co u rse obj ective s .In gen era l , the debri efing should inclu de su f f i c i ent time for participants to discuss

t h eir roles in the simu l a ti on and what—and wh o — t h ey thought was hel pful in re ach i n g

dec i s i on s ,m oving the nego ti a ti ons forw a rd , and why. If the simu l a ti on is in an intern ati onal rel a ti ons co u rs e , the instru ctor should spend some time discussing how many of

the issues that are under nego ti a ti on in the simu l a ti on are typical of o t h er intern a ti on a l

n ego ti a ti ons and intern a ti onal po l i c y. Some issues that might be discussed are soverei gnty and its limits, veri f i c a ti on of a rms con trol agreem en t s , and the pri m a ry obj ective of

i n tern a ti onal devel opm ent for many underdevel oped co u n tri e s .

Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention 2 3
2 4

Chapter 6

N e g o t i ating an End in Civil Wa rs :

G e n e ral Findings

We know a great deal abo ut how civil wars start but very little abo ut how they

en d . This is an important ga p ; m a ny of our recent policy probl ems have

revo lved around what to do to stop on going civil wars (wars that occur wi t hin the trad i ti onal bo u n d a ries of a co u n try ) — Vi etn a m , Som a l i a , Bosnia (after independen ce and recogn i ti on in 1992), Ca m bod i a , El Sa lvador, and so fort h — but we sti ll do not

u n derstand mu ch abo ut this proce s s .O f co u rse it is not nece s s a ri ly de s i ra ble to end all

c ivil wars ; it is intere s ting to spec u l a te how we would now rega rd intern a ti onal med i a tors

i f t h ey had appe a red in 1862 and set t l ed the Am erican Civil War in a com prom i s e ,g u a ra n teeing the insti tuti on of s l avery in the proce s s . But it seems clear that war term i n a ti on

m i ght be a re a s on a ble goal in at least some cases.

This proj ect began with the fairly simple qu e s ti on of h ow the figh ting stopped in civi l

w a rs . We iden ti f i ed six post-1945 civil wars that had en ded for at least five ye a rs :

Co l om bi a , ending in 1957; Yem en in 1970; Sudan in 1971; Zi m b a bwe in 1980; Ni geria in

1 9 7 0 ; and Greece in 1949. The Am erican Civil War was ad ded to take adva n t a ge of t h e

ex ten s ive histori ogra phy ava i l a bl e . Ex perts were asked to prep a re ch a pters on each of t h e

co u n tri e s , working from a com m on fra m ework .In ad d i ti on several theorists were asked

to ref l ect on the cases and spec u l a te on broader patterns the cases might su gge s t .

Considering Common W i s d o m

The “com m on wi s dom ,” enu n c i a ted most prom i n en t ly recen t ly by Th omas L. Fri ed m a n

in the New Yo rk Ti m e s, is that civil wars cannot be en ded by nego ti a ti on s . Pre su m a bly this

is because the stakes in civil wars are mu ch high er; in inters t a te wars combatants even tua lly retreat to their sep a ra te state s . (Wa rs of con quest have been unu sual since 1945,

a l t h o u gh the Iraqi inva s i on of Kuwait shows that the issue is not de ad.) In a civil war, on

the other hand, combatants have to live with one another afterw a rd ;a ll owing your oppon ents to con trol your govern m ent puts you en ti rely at their merc y.

This is not simply an ac ademic poi n t ; c u rrent U. S . govern m ent policy is to try to

m ed i a te the ends of c ivil wars . If the “com m on wi s dom” is correct , this policy is doom ed .

However, this stu dy dem on s tra tes cl e a rly that the com m on wi s dom is not tru e . Civil wars

can indeed be en ded by nego ti a ti on . The Co l om bia con f l i ct in 1957 en ded in a nego ti a ted set t l em ent bet ween two major parti e s , in ef fect in an agreem ent to ro t a te con trol of

Part III: Internal Conflicts

b y

Roy Licklider
the nati onal govern m en t . The Sudanese set t l em ent of 1971 re su l ted in the cre a ti on of a

s o ut h ern provi n ce within Sudan wh i ch had con s i dera ble auton omy; the form er head of

the rebels became a major po l i tical figure . The war within the state of ten call ed Nort h

Yem en en ded in 1970 with an agreem ent that the rebels would be given repre s en t a ti on

within the nati onal govern m ent and con s i dera ble local auton omy. In Zi m b a bwe the war

en ded with a con s ti tuti on that gave wh i tes disproporti on a te influ en ce for more than a

dec ade , fo ll owed by a nati onal el ecti on that the rebel leader won .

Even the Am erican Civil War had el em ents of a nego ti a ted set t l em en t : Federal leaders

were con cern ed abo ut a po s s i ble guerri lla con f l i ct after 1865, and it’s hard to imagine that

the Con federacy would have su rren dered as it did had the North stated that all

So ut h ern ers in the army would be tri ed for tre a s on and exec uted . Nego ti a ted set t l em en t s

for civil wars are thus cl e a rly po s s i bl e .

However, this does not mean that they are nece s s a ri ly de s i ra bl e . Th ere is good theoretical re a s on to bel i eve that nego ti a ted set t l em ents may not “h o l d ” as well as military vi ctori e s , that ren ewed civil war is more likely after nego ti a ted set t l em en t s . Ha rri s on Wa gn er,

one of the theorists invo lved in the proj ect , argues that nego ti a ted set t l em ents of ten re su l t

in power shari n g. This leaves the com peting or ga n i z a ti ons form erly at war in ex i s ten ce ,

giving them the abi l i ty to re s ort to vi o l en ce wh en ever they wi s h , and cre a ting a perm an ent veto group within soc i ety, wh i ch makes it impo s s i ble to ef fectively govern a co u n try

that is of ten in very bad con d i ti on and needs strong govern m en t . Thu s , Wa gn er su gge s t s ,

war is more likely to re sume after a nego ti a ted set t l em ent than after a military vi ctory.

This hypothesis cl e a rly has distressing implicati ons for current Am erican policy su pporting nego ti a ted set t l em en t s .It could not be te s ted in this stu dy since we did not invo lve a

ra n dom sample of a ll civil wars ; h owever, su b s equ ent work su ggests that it may have

s ome va l i d i ty, and it remains a tro u bling qu e s ti on .

An intere s ti n g, co u n teri n tu i tive finding is that even intense civil wars ending in milit a ry vi ctories can re sult in fairly gen erous set t l em en t s . The Un i ted States is a good ex a mp l e ; So ut h ern troops were all owed to go home after su rren der, and the on ly Con federa te

l e ader pro s ec uted was Jef fers on Davi s . Within a dec ade or two, t h ere were more

Con federa te veterans in the Con gress than Un i on vetera n s . In deed , the set t l em ent was so

“gen ero u s” that So ut h ern wh i tes were given con trol of So ut h ern Af ri c a n - Am ericans for

dec ade s , su gge s ting that all set t l em ents have wi n n ers and losers .

More recen t ly the Ni gerian govern m ent was influ en ced by the Am erican ex a m p l e .

Af ter one of the most co s t ly civil wars of our time (Bi a f ra ) , no war crimes trials were

h el d ;rebel leaders were wel com ed back after a few ye a rs in ex i l e ; and the form er rebel

com m a n der ran for parl i a m ent on the ti cket of the ruling party. In deed the Ni geri a n

govern m ent ref u s ed to issue medals to its troops after the war and did not establ i s h

m em ori a l s ,s aying that the whole thing had been an unfortu n a te error that should be forgo t ten as qu i ck ly as po s s i bl e .

An o t h er part of the “com m on wi s dom” is that losers should be rei n tegra ted into the

po l i ty and that, i f this is not don e , the civil war is likely to begin aga i n . This may not be

true in all cases. Af ter the Greek Civil Wa r, rebels were driven into exile or pers ec uted

rel en t l e s s ly for dec ade s . In this case, repre s s i on served its purpo s e s ; even wh en the Gree k

govern m ent was severely we a ken ed , no groups linked to the form er rebels became po l i tiNegotiating an End in Civil Wars 2 5
cal players . The re su l ting po l i ty may not have been espec i a lly attractive , but it was su cce s s f u l .(Spain is a similar case, a l t h o u gh it was not analy zed in this stu dy.) 

Th i rd parties can be hel pful in en co u ra ging nego ti a ted set t l em ents to civil wars , but

t h ey are not absolutely nece s s a ry. In Co l om bia the two parties establ i s h ed nego ti a ti on s

and re ach ed a working agreem ent essen ti a lly wi t h o ut out s i de invo lvem en t . The Yem en

a greem ent seems to have come abo ut as a re sult of the rej ecti on by both parties of t h ei r

o ut s i de su pporters . In both cases the com m on situ a ti ons of the leaders (inabi l i ty to wi n ,

and being thre a ten ed by loss of con trol to more ex treme groups in both cases, p lu s

mutual unhappiness with their out s i de su pporters in Yem en) en co u ra ged nego ti a ti on s

that re ach ed implem en ted agreem en t s .

It is also true that third - p a rty ef forts to med i a te these con f l i cts were of ten unsu cce s sful—the su ccess in Zi m b a bwe was in fact the fo u rth major intern a ti onal initi a tive to en d

that war. Th i rd - p a rty ef forts to re ach a set t l em ent in the Ni gerian civil war were comp l etely unsu cce s s f u l .E f forts in the Sudan went on for many ye a rs before re su l ting in su cce s s . On the other hand, t h ere is gen eral agreem ent that third - p a rty invo lvem ent was

c ri tical in ending the wars in Zi m b a bwe and Su d a n .

Patterns of Mediat i o n

Two different patterns of t h i rd - p a rty invo lvem ent em er ged from the stu dy. The firs t ,

“qu i et med i a ti on ,” as shown parti c u l a rly in Su d a n , i nvo lves non govern m ental groups (in

this case, chu rch groups) establishing con t acts with both sides over a peri od of ye a rs and

en co u ra ging them to move tow a rd nego ti a ti on s . The third parties had levera ge bec a u s e

t h ey had no obvious interests at stake , because they didn’t thre a ten anyon e , and bec a u s e

t h ey were seen as neutra l . Thu s , wh en the parties dec i ded that they wanted to ex p l ore

n ego ti a ted set t l em en t , the out s i ders were ava i l a ble to fac i l i t a te the very difficult and of ten

d a n gerous proce s s . This is the trad i ti onal noti on of an out s i de med i a tor.

The second pattern , in I. Wi lliam Za rtm a n’s ph rase “m ed i a ti on with mu s cl e ,” is shown

in the Zi m b a bwe case, wh i ch invo lved a govern m ent (Great Britain) with def i n i te interests in the area using state power on both con f l i cting sides to coerce them to re ach an

a greem en t . The Bri tish thre a ten ed to abandon the Rh odesian govern m ent if it didn’t

coopera te , and persu aded the front-line state s , wh i ch su pported the rebel s , to press them

to re ach an agreem en t ,a l t h o u gh they were on the ver ge of a military vi ctory. Britain pre ssu red both parties into accepting a set t l em ent that it had largely dict a ted and that nei t h er

p a rty re a lly wanted . E ach side felt that the Bri tish were su pporting the other. The Bri ti s h

were able to guara n tee the set t l em ent by sending a few troops to Zi m b a bwe ,t hus overcoming the rebel s’ fe a rs that the govern m ent would use a ce a s e - f i re to attack them ; on ly a

govern m ent could have made su ch a com m i tm ent cred i bl e .

The two approaches can be com p l em en t a ry ra t h er than com peti tive . At the very en d

of the Sudanese nego ti a ti on s , the process bogged down . The probl em was re s o lved by

pre s su re on both sides from the Et h i opian govern m ent to re ach an agreem en t . Si m i l a rly

the po s i ti on of the Bri tish in the Zi m b a bwean nego ti a ti ons was based in part on inform a ti on from other nego ti a tors who had tri ed and failed to bring the two sides to agreem en t . Non et h el e s s , it is difficult for the same party to practi ce both approaches in the

same con f l i ct at the same ti m e .

2 6 Negotiating an End in Civil Wars
An o t h er part of the “com m on wi s dom” is that civil wars over iden ti ty issues (et h n i c i ty

or rel i gi on , for example) are harder to re s o lve by nego ti a ti on than others . We could not

test the hypothesis direct ly since we did not have a ra n dom sample of a ll civil wars , but it

did not seem true in our cases. Iden ti ty issues were important in four of our cases; t h ree

of these en ded in nego ti a ted set t l em ents (Su d a n , Zi m b a bwe , and Yem en) and one in a

m i l i t a ry vi ctory (Ni geri a ) . Wh en iden ti f i c a ti on issues were less import a n t ,t h ere was on e

n ego ti a ted set t l em ent (Co l om bia) and two vi ctories (the Un i ted States and Greece ) . Th i s

su ggests the intriguing po s s i bi l i ty that the causes of c ivil wars may have less impact on

t h eir outcomes than events that take place du ring the war itsel f .

C o n c l u s i o n s

A good deal of re s e a rch has con clu ded that nego ti a ti on works best wh en it is bet ween

equal parti e s . However, by def i n i ti on the parties in a civil war are not equ a l , except in

u nu sual circ u m s t a n ce s ; Za rtman argues that this inequ a l i ty makes nego ti a ting civil wars

p a rti c u l a rly difficult, and this seems to be tru e . On the other hand, this stu dy su gge s t s

that soluti ons can be re ach ed non et h el e s s .

Th ere is gen eral agreem ent that third parties can fac i l i t a te agreem ent but on ly wh en

both parties re a lly want it. But , we must ask, wh en wi ll both parties want to settle? One

key seems to be what the parties ex pect to happen in the futu re . Set t l em ent is alw ays a

s econ d - best soluti on , s i n ce it invo lves con ce s s i ons of s ome sort , so natu ra lly each side

prefers to wi n . A nego ti a ted set t l em ent makes sense on ly wh en both sides simu l t a n eo u s ly

think that a con ti nu a ti on of the current situ a ti on wi ll leave them worse of f , produ c i n g

what Za rtman calls a “mutual hu rting stalem a te” or a situ a ti on “ri pe for re s o luti on .”

The next step is to craft an agreem ent that both parties ex pect wi ll leave them bet ter

of f than con ti nuing to figh t . Th i rd parties can be ex trem ely useful here , providing fac i l ities and su pport for nego ti a ti on ,i n c reasing the mutual understanding of the side s , pre ssu ring the sides to modera te their po s i ti on s , providing re s o u rces to make an agreem en t

m ore attractive to both side s , and making both feel more certain that their en emies wi ll

not take adva n t a ge of the inevi t a ble risks invo lved in disarm a m ent and dem obi l i z a ti on .

Non et h el e s s , the final dec i s i on alw ays rests with the parties them s elve s ,s i n ce they have to

l ive with the con s equ en ces and retain the capac i ty to overtu rn the agreem en t . This in

tu rn raises the intere s ting qu e s ti on of h ow stable po l i tical units can be con s tru cted from

a m ong people who have been killing one another in civil wars .

Negotiating an End in Civil Wars 2 7
2 8

Chapter 7

N e g o t i ating for Peace in Liberia:

Conclusions and Recommendat i o n s

This proj ect assesses con clu s i ons for nego ti a ti on in civil wars from the ex peri en ce

of Af ri c a’s recent civil wars , in particular one of the most deva s t a ti n g, L i beri a’s .

L i beria is the oldest rep u blic in Af ri c a , and its slide into civil war has its immed ia te ori gins in 1980. That year a group of s o l d i ers led by Ma s ter Ser geant Sa mu el K. Doe

overt h rew the govern m ent of Wi lliam To l bert in a bl oody coup d’état. To l bert’s regi m e

was the last incarn a ti on of 133 ye a rs of rule by Am eri co - L i beri a n s , de s cendants of f reed -

s l ave em i grants from the Un i ted State s .L i beria is high ly divers e ,h owever, containing sixteen major indigenous Af rican ethnic groups in ad d i ti on to the Am eri co - L i beri a n s , wh o

account for abo ut 5 percent of the co u n try ’s pop u l a ti on . Doe hailed from the Kra h n

tri be , and other facti ons and ethnic groups in the co u n try ra ll i ed over the next dec ade to

oppose his govern m en t .

Beginning in Decem ber 1989, Doe’s regime was ch a ll en ged by insu r gents led by

Ch a rles Tayl or ’s powerful Na ti onal Peop l e’s Libera ti on Fron t , and a peri od of c ivil war

bro ke out de s p i te the military interven ti on of n ei gh boring West Af rican state s ,l ed by

Ni geri a , in August 1990. Tayl or ’s forces battled Doe’s thro u gh o ut the co u n try, and another facti on led by Pri n ce Jo h n s on (wh i ch had bro ken aw ay from Tayl or ’s group) joi n ed the

f ray. Ot h er arm ed groups assoc i a ted with the Krahn also em er ged . The war dra gged on

for six ye a rs ,l e aving some 150,000 casu a l ties and an esti m a ted 1.3 mill i on ref u gee s ,a n d

L i beria became known as a “f a i l ed state .” In tern a ti onal aid agencies and non govern m ental or ga n i z a ti ons (NGOs) seeking to fac i l i t a te pe ace were active in Liberia thro u gh o ut

this peri od , as was the Un i ted Na ti on s . UN pers on n el launch ed several med i a ti on initi atives among the facti on s .

The warring facti ons even tu a lly re ach ed an agreem ent in 1995, bro kered by Af ri c a n

l e aders , that establ i s h ed a provi s i onal govern m ent based on power sharing among the

f acti on leaders . In early 1996, h owever, the figh ting ren ewed and the co u n try underwen t

a n o t h er peri od of s tri fe until a fresh pe ace tre a ty (Abu ja II) was cl i n ch ed in August 1996,

a gain med i a ted by Af rican leaders with the help of the Un i ted Na ti on s . Vo ting fo ll owi n g

the second pe ace agreem ent in Ju ly 1997 led to the el ecti on of Ch a rles Tayl or as the

co u n try ’s pre s i den t .

Po l i cy - R e l evant Conclusions

Ex a m i n a ti on of the Liberian nego ti a ti ons su ggests a nu m ber of po l i c y - rel evant con clus i on s , wh i ch I de s c ri be bri ef ly bel ow.

Th ere has to be a bet ter understanding of the com p l ex interp l ay of ex ternal actors in

Af rican con f l i ct situ a ti on s . We need to build on Ch ri s toph er Mi tch ell ’s model of “a med ia ti on process ra t h er than a single interm ed i a ry actor,” using the con s i dera ble inform a ti on

b y

R i c h a rd Joseph
Negotiating for Peace In Liberia 2 9

n ow ava i l a ble from different aren a s . Is sues of s equ en c i n g, timing for med i a ti on , and even

the risks of i n a ppropri a te med i a ti on ef forts need to be more ri goro u s ly stu d i ed .

The ero s i on of s t a te aut h ori ty in Af rica fac i l i t a tes pro l on ged con f l i ct situ a ti ons in

wh i ch interm i t tent warf a re is com bi n ed with the proc u rem en t ,m a n a gem en t , and distributi on of econ omic re s o u rces in “s t a te - f ra gm en t s .”The stu dy of the po l i tical econ omy of

i n su r gencies is a bu r geoning field that should be en co u ra ged .

We need soc i o - p s ych o l ogical studies of “ w a rl ord s .”Wh en I first ra i s ed this point at an

i n tern a ti onal con feren ce several ye a rs ago, it met with bemu s em en t .O n ly a small nu mber of i n d ivi duals are invo lved in keeping con f l i cts goi n g. Un derstanding their motivati on , and how they are likely to re s pond to va rious indu cem en t s , should not be left to ad

h oc ju d gm en t s .

Th ere is an increase in priva te diplom acy in the med i a ti on of a rm ed con f l i ct s .

However, most cri tical atten ti on is devo ted to the capac i ty and weaknesses of i n tern ati onal or ga n i z a ti on s , su ch as the Un i ted Na ti ons and the Orga n i z a ti on of Af rican Un i ty.

“ Priva te diplom a t s” h ave had fairly easy goi n g. Th eir activi ties of ten become a re s o u rce to

those seeking to pro l ong con f l i ct s , avoid serious med i a ti on , and wear down their oppon ents and the intern a ti onal or ga n i z a ti on s .

As insu r gencies provo ke the fra gm en t a ti on of a l re ady fra gile Af rican state s , the fra gm ents are govern ed as “pro to - s t a te s” and insu r gent leaders are accorded degrees of i n formal recogn i ti on . Wh en med i a ti on exercises are con du cted ,u su a lly inten ded to ach i eve

exit via el ecti on s , the ch a ll en ge facing these insu r gent leaders carries winning or losing to

a high er degree : Th ey are asked to abandon their state - f ra gm ents for an oppo s i ti on or

m i n ori ty governing role in the more intern a ti on a lly recogn i zed “ ju ridical state .” The calc u l a ti ons made by insu r gent leaders could have major implicati ons for the po s s i bl e

re su m pti on of a rm ed stru ggl e .

In adequ a te atten ti on has been paid to the role of c ivil soc i ety in ach i eving the re s o luti on of a rm ed con f l i ct s . We need to move this su bj ect from its “s of t” s t a tus to a more ri gorous on e . Groups that obtain arms catapult them s elves above all other civic actors .

Med i a tors su b s equ en t ly devo te most atten ti on to get ting their leaders to agree to put

down their arm s , and the en suing nego ti a ti on process all ows these leaders to overs h adow

a ll non a rm ed civic and po l i tical actors . A vicious cycle is launch ed that incre a s i n gly margi n a l i zes those living a pe aceful life .

The nexus bet ween the em er gen ce of a unipolar world and the intract a bi l i ty of a rm ed

con f l i cts demands ren ewed cri tical ex a m i n a ti on . If the ex ternal levera ge to con t a i n , even

to med i a te , con f l i cts has diminished in the po s t – Cold War era and the leading nati on of

the world adopts a cautious approach to app lying its military and diplom a tic power, h ow

can we minimize the re su l ting dilemmas for those invo lved in pe acem a k i n g ?

Civil con f l i cts fo ll owing arm ed insu r gencies become com p l ex hu m a n i t a rian crises and

pro l on ged no pe ace/no war situ a ti on s .In ti m e , the su bregi on itsel f s h a res these ch a racteri s ti c s . As co u n tries in the su bregi on are en co u ra ged to intervene actively in pe acem a ki n g, t h ey become parties to the con f l i ct and are su b s equ en t ly invo lved in qu i te

con trad i ctory ro l e s . The gen era lly po s i tive atti tu de to en co u ra ging nei gh boring co u n tri e s

to become invo lved in su ch exercises needs to be cri ti c a lly ex a m i n ed and cri teria devel-
3 0 Negotiating for Peace In Liberia

oped for iden ti f ying the pitf a ll s . The interest of n ei gh boring states in fo s tering disorder

and su pporting insu r gencies som etimes exceeds their wi ll i n gness to prom o te pe acem a ki n g.

The failu re to implem ent pe ace agreem ents is one of the foremost probl ems in Af ri c a n

i n ternal con f l i ct s . Ava i l a ble inform a ti on rega rding the ex ten s ive or partial implem en t ati on of a greem ents can be analy zed to gen era te persu a s ive propo s i ti ons and model s

t h i rd - p a rty med i a tors can take into con s i dera ti on from the initial attem pts to prom o te

pe ace talks.

Key Messages for Po l i cy m a ke rs

We have to do a bet ter job of i n forming dec i s i on makers , and the publ i c , that the costs of

trying to re s o lve con f l i cts exceed by far what is requ i red to prevent them from em er gi n g

in the first place .

We must fo s ter gre a ter acco u n t a bi l i ty for those nati ons and indivi duals who su pport

i n su r gent groups for purely sel f - i n tere s ted re a s on s . Su ch actors en j oy a “c u l tu re of

i m p u n i ty.” Arm s , precious met a l s , and other com m od i ties provi de a brisk and app a ren t ly

lu c ra tive trade wh en ever arm ed con f l i cts em er ge . Yet those who ben efit are sel dom identi f i ed . Some co u n tries have en j oyed intern a ti onal re s pect a bi l i ty, and even a seat at the

t a ble of pe acem a kers , while simu l t a n eo u s ly su pporting insu r gent groups in Af ri c a .

The role of i n tern a ti onal non govern m ental or ga n i z a ti ons in Af ri c a’s com p l ex em ergencies is so ex ten s ive tod ay that there should be a formal process of d i s c u s s i on that

i nvo lves eva lu a ting previous mission s , devel oping codes of con du ct and en ga gem en t ,a n d

e s t a blishing forums for re s o lving dispute s .

The tasks of prom o ting devel opm ent in Af ri c a , the provi s i on of rel i ef a s s i s t a n ce ,a n d

the re s o luti on of con f l i cts are no lon ger sep a ra te sph ere s . We have not begun to ad d re s s

this issue in even a prel i m i n a ry way.

Most dire cases of s t a te co llapse and/or pro l on ged con f l i ct in Af rica stem direct ly from

a pattern of ex ternal invo lvem en t . At ten ti on is of ten directed to “b ad po l i c i e s”wi t h i n

Af rican states that are re s pon s i ble for econ omic and po l i tical failu re s . The crises in

An go l a ,L i beri a ,R w a n d a , Som a l i a , and Sudan were the targets of h i gh ex ternal invo lvem ent by major powers,d i rect ly linked to the inten s i ty and du ra ti on of the con f l i cts in

these co u n tri e s . This issue should not be overl oo ked ,e s pec i a lly in vi ew of the ten dency to

treat the crises as “Af ri c a n” c rises in wh i ch ex ternal actors ,i n cluding those who were form erly deep ly en ga ged , can ch oose wh et h er to seek re s o luti on .

Findings for the Conflict Management Field

Pe acemaking as a field of s tu dy is sti ll in its rel a tive infancy. Most of the litera tu re con s i s t s

of hu n ches and hypo t h e s e s . The nu m ber of con f l i cts and their increasing com p l ex i ty are

o ut s tri pping the work of s ch o l a rs .S c i en tific met h ods of re s e a rch need to be used more

ex ten s ively to understand the causes of vi o l en ce and how vi o l ent con f l i cts may be mana ged . For ex a m p l e ,h ow do warl ords keep their ragtag armies toget h er? 

We sti ll live , con ceptu a lly, in a po s t - We s tphalian world (one in wh i ch the pri m a ry

actor is soverei gn co u n tri e s ) ,a l t h o u gh non - s t a te actors and the dynamics of “s t a tel e s s-
Negotiating for Peace In Liberia 3 1

n e s s” a re becoming incre a s i n gly more significant in the initi a ti on and con du ct of a rm ed

con f l i ct s . This cre a tes an intell ectual ch a ll en ge that requ i res foc u s ed atten ti on and more

opportu n i ties for active dialogue among spec i a l i s t s .

The po l i tical econ omy of “ w a rl ord insu r gen c i e s” and the movem ent of goods ac ro s s

porous bo u n d a ries should provo ke the atten ti on of profe s s i onal econ omists who co u l d

assist in the analysis of t h eir dynamics and the incen tives and disincen tives that can influen ce beh avi or.

O n ce an insu r gency has “s et t l ed in” for the long haul, govern m ents and NGOs get

d rawn into the web of the intern a ti onal po l i tics of s t a te fra gm en t s . Th ere is a need for a

m ore sel f - c ri tical aw a reness by indivi duals and or ga n i z a ti ons seeking to “do good ”a bo ut

h ow mu ch they may, in fact , become part of the pred a tory and dilatory beh avi or of l e aders of a rm ed gro u p s .

Pe acemaking does not nece s s a ri ly adva n ce pe ace . In d ivi dual and group beh avi or in

s i tu a ti ons of pro l on ged con f l i ct cannot of ten be differen ti a ted from the motiva ti ons of

“n ormal life .”Th ere must be a to u gh er approach to these con f l i ct situ a ti on s . In tern a ti on a l

hu m a n i t a rian impulses are manipulated by indivi duals with obj ectives that sel dom go

beyond “s el f and power,” a l t h o u gh they can incite social con f l i cts in wh i ch the sen ti m en t s

of groups provi de levera ge and cred i bi l i ty for pred a tory warl ord s .An appropri a te balance

bet ween robust disincen tives and ef fective incen tives must be sough t .

Findings for Skills Tra i n i n g

Med i a tors must be aw a re of the very probl em a tic natu re of m ed i a ti on in the con text of

con tem pora ry internal con f l i ct s . Pe ace talks have become a game that does not nece s s a rily lead to the re s o luti on of con f l i ct s . Med i a tors are drawn in to become mere players in

this proce s s , to be en co u ra ged or disco u ra ged , as the advers a ries va ry their tacti c s .

Training should inclu de gre a ter aw a reness of the psych o l ogical attri butes that indu ce

i n d ivi duals to provo ke and lead arm ed stru ggl e s . Wi ll i n gness to make use of ex perts in

p s ych o l ogy du ring the co u rse of m ed i a ti on exercises should also be en co u ra ged .

Med i a tors should be instru cted to be conscious of t h eir own motiva ti ons so that they

a re not driven to try and bring abo ut pe ace talks, or to seek cl o su re in them , wh en con d iti ons are not prop i ti o u s . By being wi lling to back aw ay from rec a l c i trant leaders ,t h ey

redu ce the likel i h ood that their zeal would make them easy to manipulate .

Med i a ti on is sel dom initi a ted and then carri ed thro u gh by one pers on or or ga n i z ati on . Med i a ti on is more of a “rel ay race ,”with different actors serving at different ti m e s .

Th ere are qu i te different roles for a va ri ety of actors to play thro u gh o ut the usu a lly lon g

process of i n i ti a ti on , and frequ ent su s pen s i on and re su m pti on of t a l k s . Training should

t h erefore help med i a tors increase their capac i ty to work in co ll a bora ti on with others and

be prep a red to re s o lve the fri cti ons that em er ge in the co u rse of su ch interacti on s .

Arm ed stru ggles tod ay have become com p l ex social ph en om ena that take on ad d iti onal dynamics as they are pro l on ged . Training should prep a re med i a tors and nego ti ators for the flex i bi l i ty and ad a pt a bi l i ty that these situ a ti ons now requ i re . Th ey must also

be warn ed that pursuing pe ace does not nece s s a ri ly en gen der it and may in fact impede a

s peed i er re s o luti on if the aggre s s ive party is wi lling to back down on ly wh en com pell ed .
C o n c l u s i o n s

Gre a ter ef fort should be made to en co u ra ge indivi duals who have taken part in actu a l

m ed i a ti ons to ref l ect on why they were su ccessful or unsu cce s s f u l . Su ch exercises wo u l d

yi eld insights that could be synthesized into theories or models of con f l i ct re s o luti on .

F i n a lly, it should be intere s ting to see the process from the “o t h er side ,” that is, f rom the

vi ewpoint of those combatants who are prep a red to ref l ect on how they rega rd the different stages of the pe ace process and the ways in wh i ch they interpret the acti ons of n egoti a tors and med i a tors .

3 2 Negotiating for Peace In Liberia
3 3

Chapter 8

N e g o t i ating with “Vi l l a i n s ”

Deciding to nego ti a te with “ vi ll a i n s” is pop u l a rly perceived as “giving up.” It may

rel ay an impre s s i on of we a k n e s s , that leaders are too eager for a set t l em ent and

too wi lling to com prom i s e . It may be thought that su ch a wi lling party can easily

be taken adva n t a ge of . Thu s , wh en po l i tical leaders con s i der nego ti a ting with vi llains they

fear that they wi ll lose face with their con s ti tu encies as well as with their oppon en t s . Th e

a ppe a ra n ce of a ppe a s em ent usu a lly stands in the way of re s o lving con f l i cts with vi ll a i n s

e a rly and pe acef u lly. Po l i ti c a lly, it may be vi ewed as bet ter to wait than to lose face .

This proj ect inve s ti ga tes instances in wh i ch a govern m ent or guerri lla group revers ed

co u rse and agreed to nego ti a te with en emies it had previ o u s ly con s i dered out s i de the

p a l e . Com m on qu e s ti ons abo ut the ch a n ge of mind were analy zed in nego ti a ti ons on

Ha i ti , North Kore a , the Mi d dle East, and Nort h ern Irel a n d . The cases su ggest severa l

w ays of overcoming this imped i m en t :

Pa rtn ers h i p : By devel oping an en tra pping interdepen den ce bet ween the state that

dec i des to open nego ti a ti ons—the de s i gn a tor state—and the vi ll a i n , both sides are

of ten impell ed to move forw a rd increm en t a lly to re s o luti on .“ Pa rtn ership with the

devi l ”n eeds to be a mutu a lly accepted opti on ; both sides need to commit to re s o lving the con f l i ct . As both sides move forw a rd , the popular impre s s i on of a ppe a s em ent qu i ck ly fade s .

Pra gm a ti s m : Nego ti a ting does not requ i re that principles and convi cti ons be comprom i s ed .It merely all ows for influ en ce to be exerted over the vi ll a i n’s acti on s . In

f act , it may all ow a leader to ach i eve his/her interests thro u gh nonvi o l ent means

m ore su cce s s f u lly than by others . If deep ly roo ted hatreds and ideo l ogies can be su spen ded on both side s , bu s i n e s s l i ke nego ti a ti ons that focus on the interests of e ach

p a rty can yi eld meaningful re su l t s .

S e cre c y: Both de s i gn a tors and vi llains may be able to keep from losing face if t a l k s

a re shiel ded from public vi ew. In this age of instant media covera ge , that may be difficult to accom p l i s h , but not impo s s i bl e .

Med i a tion and a Motive : Th i rd parti e s — e s pec i a lly unofficial med i a tors — a re of ten

n ece s s a ry but not su f f i c i ent to ach i eve su ccessful re sults with vi ll a i n s . The third

p a rty can intervene as a tru s ted interm ed i a ry and shield the de s i gn a tor co u n try

f rom ex a ggera ted ch a r ges of a ppe a s em en t , but other powerful motives are requ i red

to push the process to re s o luti on , for ex a m p l e , de adline pre s su res and the threat of

i m m i n ent and severe punishment if no agreem ent is re ach ed .

b y

B e rt r a m

S p e c t o r
Th ree disti n ct models em er ged to de s c ri be how co u n tries dec i de to nego ti a te wi t h

t h eir vi ll a i n s .

The Traditional A p p ro a c h

The trad i ti onal approach puts the dec i s i on to nego ti a te in the vi ll a i n’s hands. In this

m odel ,n ego ti a ti on is not re a lly a dec i s i on initi a ted by the govern m ent but a con s equ en ce

of certain con d i ti ons having been met by the vi ll a i n .In the Bri t a i n – Sinn Fein case, for

i n s t a n ce , the Bri tish govern m ent decl a red Sinn Fein a vi llain and held true to its word

not to nego ti a te until the ce a s e - f i re con d i ti ons were sati s f i ed . In this way the govern m en t

was shiel ded from appe a ring to appease the vi ll a i n . The vi ll a i n , in fact ,h ad to ch a n ge its

s pots very publ i cly before the govern m ent was wi lling to accede to direct nego ti a ti on s .

O n ce that ch a n ge occ u rred , the govern m ent was pro tected from the acc u s a ti on of

a ppe a s em ent and agreed to nego ti a ti on s .

If nothing can happen until po l i tical safety is locked in, h owever, the passivi ty of t h e

govern m ent nego ti a tor is assu red . In fact ,t h ere are no real govern m ent dec i s i ons to

n ego ti a te . It is left en ti rely in the vi ll a i n’s hands to dec i de wh en and if n ego ti a ti ons occ u r.

The govern m ent not on ly el i m i n a tes nego ti a ti on as an opti on wh en it vi ll a i n i zes the

en emy, but it also abroga tes its own power to open the nego ti a ti on opti on until the vi llain dec i des it is re ady.

B r i n k m a n s h i p

Bri n k m a n s h i p — i nvo lving de adline pre s su re and imminent punishment to be meted out

i f t h ere is no agreem ent—can be a powerful motiva tor in certain cases. In both the

Ha i tian and North Korean cases, the U. S . govern m ent was well along in plans to implem ent harsh sancti ons on the vi ll a i n s .In the Ha i tian case, a military inva s i on was immin en t .In the North Korean case, U N - b acked intern a ti onal sancti ons were abo ut to be

i m p l em en ted .All official com mu n i c a ti ons had been severed .In both situ a ti on s , Ji m my

Ca rter, as an unofficial med i a tor but with official U. S . govern m ent approva l ,was sent in

at the el eventh hour to open the com mu n i c a ti ons ch a n n el . Al t h o u gh the press label ed

both of these initi a tives ad hoc and last minute ,t h ey share several attri butes that su gge s t

a con s i s tent styl i s tic approach .

F i rs t , a med i a tor who had the trust of the vi llainous ru l ers was introdu ced in bo t h

c a s e s . However, the med i a tor was a priva te citi zen wh o, a l t h o u gh a form er pre s i dent and

bri efed by the U. S . govern m ent before his dep a rtu re ,h ad no official standing. As a re su l t ,

in the event of f a i lu re or an outra geous propo s a l , the interven ti on could be rep u d i a ted .

Secon d , the med i a tor was given a very narrow agenda on wh i ch to con du ct talks and

find agreem en t . All issues were not out on the tabl e . The de s i gn a tor sought to hold all of

the card s , re s ervi n g, for ex a m p l e , the po s s i bi l i ty of h a rsh punishment if a greem ent was

not re ach ed . Th i rd , the med i a tor was dispatch ed just before the on s et of s trong sancti on s ,

banking on their being unaccept a bly co s t ly to the vi ll a i n s . Fo u rt h , the med i a ti on mission s

were publ i c i zed and ti m ed to be last-ditch ef forts to avert the on s et of s a n cti on s . Th ere

was a very narrow wi n dow for agreem en t . Thu s ,t h ere were very real de adline pre s su re s ,

con s c i o u s ly devel oped by the U. S . govern m en t .

3 4 Negotiating with “Villains”
Business Model

The Is rael i - P LO ra pproch em ent exemplifies a nego ti a ti on ch a racteri zed by bu s i n e s s - l i ke

i n teracti on s . For the parties to this agreem en t , mu ch more could be done in sec ret and in

an informal set ti n g — aw ay from the med i a , aw ay from the oppo s i ti on , and in the absen ce

of p u blic po s tu ring—than could ever be done in an open public foru m . In sec ret ,t h e

t a boos of n on com mu n i c a ti on could be broach ed and overcom e . In priva te , vi ll a i n i zed

pers on a l i ties could be listen ed to, qu e s ti on ed , u n ders tood , and dealt with pers on a lly.

Reports from participants su ggest that a co ll egial atm o s ph ere was gen era ted and a sen s e

of a f f i l i a ti on devel oped .

This model dem on s tra tes the ben efits of pra gm a ti s m . If you want to re s o lve a probl em , you must deal with those who have the aut h ori ty to dec i de , even if t h ey are the on e s

who have acted vi ll a i n o u s ly. From a pra gm a tic pers pective , pri de must be swall owed and

the nece s s a ry business accom p l i s h ed . This model opera tes under the assu m pti on that

both parties understand their own sel f - i n terests and seek to maximize them . The dec is i on to nego ti a te is based on an understanding that both sides wi ll be motiva ted by intere s t s , not ideo l ogy.

Th ere is also a practical need to work with the other side as a partn er who can del iver

on prom i s e s , who wi ll not ren ege , and who is strong and wi ll not bend to oppo s i ti on

force s . More than the other two model s , this one depends on tru s t — trust in the other

s i de to take initi a tives and assume risks to the same degree as the de s i gn a tor co u n try.

Findings for Po l i cy m a ke rs

Nego ti a ting with vi llains is a difficult and ri s ky propo s i ti on . But it has been work a ble in

the four cases—Ha i ti , North Kore a , Nort h ern Irel a n d , and PLO - Is rael— analy zed in this

s tu dy with little if a ny harm done to the image of the leaders who have dec i ded to proceed on this path. On the su rf ace , the nego ti a ti on dec i s i on seems to requ i re certain leadership attri bute s : a very practi c a l , to u gh ,c red i bl e , and risk-taking pers on a l i ty. But it is

m ore than just a matter of s tyl e . The dec i s i on—and its su cce s s — depends on skill f u lly

en gi n eering the situ a ti on (po s i ti oning scapegoats and shields in the event of f a i lu re ,m i nimizing media covera ge , and gen era ting “overwh elming ri pen e s s” t h ro u gh de adlines and

com pelling punishments) and po s i tive acti ons (su bm er ging ideo l ogy, su s pen d i n g

reven ge , ref raming the con f l i ct , ref raming the vi ll a i n , and cre a ting a partn ers h i p ) .

The ethical qu e s ti on of wh et h er leaders have a duty to nego ti a te early and meaningf u lly even with vi llains is likely to persist as the intern a ti onal sys tem em er ges from the

Cold War era . The fractu re of n a ti on - s t a tes along ethnic lines, the pro l i fera ti on of

we a pons of mass de s tru cti on , the threat of terrori s m , and the we a kening and co llapse of

s t a tes wi ll con ti nue to ch a ll en ge leaders with seem i n gly intract a ble con f l i cts aga i n s t

rep u gnant en em i e s . While principles and convi cti ons cert a i n ly need to be uph el d , t h ey

must be balanced with the major costs of maintaining the stru ggl e . Som etimes pers i sten ce , even escalati on , of con f l i cts with parti c u l a rly heinous vi llains is ju s ti f i ed wh en it

a ppe a rs to be the on ly way to re s o lve massive inju s ti ce . However, wh en face ,i m a ge ,

h on or, and po l i tics are the on ly el em ents barring nego ti a ti on ,t h ere should be no qu e sti on : Th ere are cred i ble ways of n ego ti a ting with vi ll a i n s , su rviving the torrent of p u bl i c

and media cri ti c i s m , and re s o lving seem i n gly intract a ble con f l i cts ef fectively.

Negotiating with “Villains” 3 5
Med i a tors are also faced with a painful balancing act . Is it bet ter to save lives in the

s h ort term thro u gh bro kering a ce a s e - f i re with vi llains even though they may remain in

power and con ti nue to perpetra te human ri ghts abuses? Or is it bet ter to take the lon ger

pers pective and avoid “co ll a bora ti on ,” prom o ting acti ons that wi ll not on ly drive them

f rom power, but establish a more stable pe ace set t l em en t ?

The public reversal of “ vi ll a i n i z a ti on” n a tu ra lly of fers itsel f to cri ticism and ch a r ges of

hypoc risy and appe a s em en t . How can leaders def l ect su ch ch a r ges? The con s erva tive

a pproach is to put the ball in the vi ll a i n’s co u rt . This is typ i f i ed by the Bri ti s h - i n i ti a ted

con ti n gency arra n gem ent with Sinn Fei n : Vi ll a i n i z a ti on was revers ed on ly wh en the vi llain ce a s ed to beh ave as a vi ll a i n . Wh en the vi llain com p l i ed , the reversal was natu ral and

accept a bl e ;a f ter all , the rep u l s ive beh avi or (the arm ed stru ggle) stopped and the de s i gn ator could claim vi ctory.

A more proactive approach is ri s ky but som etimes fe a s i bl e .F i rs t , the dec i s i on makers

must have a rep ut a ti on for being to u gh and cred i bl e . Th eir pop u l a ti on must bel i eve that,

b a s ed on past ex peri en ce , the dec i s i on makers would never do anything that wo u l d

u n dermine the sec u ri ty of t h eir con s ti tu en t s . Secon d , a vi s i on of the futu re must be pres en ted that paints a high ly ben ef i c i a l , but re a l i s ti c ,p i ctu re for the con s ti tu en t s . The publ i c

wi ll not find nego ti a ti ons wi t h , and po s s i bly con ce s s i ons to, the vi llain accept a ble if it is

not part of a larger image of a futu re in wh i ch the vi llain ch a n ges its tu n e . Th i rd ,t h e

dec i s i on makers must act out of pra gm a tic motive s , not ide a l i s m .O n ce there has been

su f f i c i ent soc i a l i z a ti on abo ut the vi ll a i n , it is difficult to rem ove that social learning wi t h

i de a l i s tic rh etori c ; the public is likely to re s pond more favora bly to practi c a l , bu s i n e s s l i ke

a pproach e s .

Th i rd parti e s ,e s pec i a lly those invo lved in Track Two (unofficial) diplom ac y, a re

i m portant ch a n n els in the dec i s i on to nego ti a te with vi ll a i n s . F i rs t , because they are unoff i c i a l ,t h ey can be rep u d i a ted with little loss if the initial talks do not fare well . Any ch a r ge

of a ppe a s em ent can be attach ed to the third party, d i s s oc i a ting it cl e a rly from the governm en t . Second ,t h i rd parties may be used to initi a te nego ti a ti ons and send up trial ball oons as proxies for the govern m en t , keeping both parties at arm’s len g t h . Th i rd ,t h i rd

p a rties are of ten under no official pro s c ri pti ons that limit their interacti on with vi ll a i n s .

As a resu l t ,l on g - term rel a ti onships of trust and con f i den ce may be form ed bet ween these

p a rties and el em ents in the vi llain groups or state s .

Findings for Conflict Management Specialists

An a lysis of the case studies corrobora ted a nu m ber of the hypotheses rega rding the dec is i on to nego ti a te with vi ll a i n s .

These cases all seem to share the ch a racteri s tics of a great historic mom en t . The dra m a

of a ce a s e - f i re , the meeting of old warri ors , retu rn to civilian rule after military dict a tors h i p s , and the freezing of nu clear we a pons produ cti on are part of what makes this kind

of bre a k t h ro u gh dec i s i on different from nego ti a ti on dec i s i ons under normal circ u ms t a n ce s . The leaders sense these historic mom en t s , grab them , and seek maximum cred i t .

The leaders who make dec i s i ons to initi a te or re s o lve nego ti a ti ons are usu a lly perceived as being to u gh and unyi elding actors or have devel oped a to u gh stra tegy to back

up the nego ti a ti on s .

3 6 Negotiating with “Villains”
The dec i s i on makers are also risk takers , wi lling to break the establ i s h ed mold in a crisis and make new and historic dec i s i ons to re s o lve it.

The leaders are astute and practical po l i ti c i a n s ; t h ey find a pro tected way to make the

ri s ky dec i s i on . For ex a m p l e , the use of u n official med i a tors and fac i l i t a tors is usu a lly an

i m portant el em ent in su ch face - s aving stra tegi e s . Th ey are po s i ti on ed as conven i en t

s c a pegoats in the event that nego ti a ti ons fail or public op i n i on back f i re s .

Pri n c i p l e s , va lu e s , and ideo l ogy must be tem pora ri ly su s pen ded in favor of the dec is i on to nego ti a te . Convi cti ons need not be com prom i s ed , but a doggedly pra gm a tic outl ook must be devel oped .

Nego ti a ti on goals are usu a lly very limited and increm en t a l . Ach i eving agreem ent on

practical interests is the focus of the dec i s i on to talk with vi ll a i n s . Pri de must be swall owed in many cases.

While ideo l ogy could be su s pen ded , deep ly roo ted hatreds and animosities were not

for go t ten or dealt with direct ly in this sort of n ego ti a ti on . Th eir pra gm a tism ign ored

m a ny of the underlying em o ti onal issu e s . The hope is that su ch affect wi ll recede over

time as rel a ti ons norm a l i ze .

It appe a red that some progress was made in ref raming the con f l i ct and the image of

the vi ll a i n ,p a rti c u l a rly for the lon g - term insu r gen c i e s ; less progress was made in this

rega rd in the rogue ch a ll en ges facing the Un i ted State s , as in Ha i ti . The Un i ted State s

a ppe a rs to ch a n ge heart on ly ra rely, and halti n gly.

Overwh elming incen tives proved to be powerful and, perh a p s ,c a t a lytic factors influencing the dec i s i on to nego ti a te . In the two rogue ch a ll en ge s , ex treme nega tive con s equ en ces were thre a ten ed if n ego ti a ti ons were not su cce s s f u l .In the two insu r gen c i e s ,

po s i tive incen tives—the ce s s a ti on of vi o l en ce — were prom i s ed as an el em ent of the dec is i on to nego ti a te . Wi t h o ut major rew a rds or punishmen t s , the dec i s i on to nego ti a te may

not have been su cce s s f u l . In fact ,i f these incen tives had not been an integral part of t h e

i n i tial dec i s i on stra tegy, the dec i s i on makers might not have made the ri s ky dec i s i on to

n ego ti a te at all , fe a ring failu re and loss of f ace .

Negotiating with “Villains” 3 7
C o n c l u s i o n s

B r i d ging Theory and Pra c t i c e

The studies reported here dem on s tra te that the analysis of n ego ti a ti on rem a i n s

cen tral to a wi de ra n ge of topics in intern a ti onal con f l i ct re s o luti on . Nego ti a ti on

means mu ch more than ga t h ering around a table making con ce s s i ons until an

a greem ent is sec u red . It invo lves cre a tive thinking abo ut the ways parties might re ach

a greem en t ,l aying careful gro u n dwork to build the con d i ti ons for a su s t a i n a ble set t l em en t . What goes on behind the scenes—in dom e s tic po l i ti c s , for example—is as important as the dynamics of formal bargaining session s . Nego ti a ti on and med i a ti on perm e a te

vi rtu a lly every dimen s i on of con tem pora ry intern a ti onal con f l i ct re s o luti on . It is espec i a lly import a n t ,t h en , to con s i der ways that new approaches to nego ti a ti on and med i ati on can inform practi ce .

Moreover, it is clear from these proj ects that in intern a ti onal rel a ti ons nego ti a ti on

of ten invo lves many players bargaining over com p l ex issu e s . For ex a m p l e , in a mu l ti s i ded

c ivil war like Liberi a’s or a large tre a ty nego ti a ti on su ch as the Bi o l ogical We a pon s

Conven ti on , m a ny interests are repre s en ted at the nego ti a ti on tabl e . As a re su l t , it is useful to inform the stu dy of n ego ti a ti on and med i a ti on with other approaches to the stu dy

of i n tern a ti onal po l i ti c s , su ch as coa l i ti on analys i s . Ma rie Ch evri er ’s simu l a ti on of t h e

BWC nego ti a ti on , for ex a m p l e , p ays careful atten ti on to te aching skills on coa l i ti on form a ti on .G iven the bre adth of i s sues and the com p l ex i ty of the re a l - world even t s ,h ow can

we bet ter understand the links bet ween nego ti a ti on theory and practi ce ?

The theory of n ego ti a ti on and med i a ti on contains a tre a su re trove of gen eral findings

that can inform bargaining stra tegie s .D ru ckman and Robi n s on su cc i n ct ly disti ll ed these

f i n d i n gs and of fer a set of gen era l i z a ti ons that are hel pful as guides to nego ti a ti on stra tegi e s ,e s pec i a lly wh en the findings of re s e a rch are co u n teri n tu i tive . Al t h o u gh we migh t

think that nego ti a ting with fri ends is easier than nego ti a ting with stra n gers , for ex a m p l e ,

t h eir overvi ew of re s e a rch su ggests that som etimes it too easy to con cede with fri en d s ,

l e ading to disappoi n tm ent and fru s tra ti on . We also learn that even though parties to a

con f l i ct may not see a mutu a lly ben eficial soluti on—and indeed they may see a con f l i ct

as “ zero - su m ,” wh ere one party ’s gain is another ’s loss—the careful and practi c a lly minded app l i c a ti on of t h eory can reveal ways that zero - sum percepti ons can be tra n s form ed

i n to a po s i tive - sum percepti on of mutual ga i n . Thu s , re s e a rch findings on nego ti a ti on tell

us mu ch abo ut gen eral principles that can guide po l i c ym a kers in su ch ef fort s .

Nevert h el e s s , a bet ter understanding of the pathw ays bet ween theory and policy is

n eeded . Po l i c ym a kers of ten vi ew ac ademic re s e a rch as overly abstract , too gen eral in

a pp l i c a ti on , and insu f f i c i ent to deal with the mu l ti tu de of co u n tervailing pre s su res they

f ace .( See Al ex a n der Geor ge , B ri d ging the Gap: T h e o ry and Pra cti ce in Fo rei gn Pol i c y,

Wa s h i n g ton , D. C . : Un i ted States In s ti tute of Pe ace Press.) De s p i te their avers i on to

a b s tract theory, po l i c ym a kers and practi ti on ers in intern a ti onal con f l i ct re s o luti on do 3 8

b y

Timothy D. Sisk
Conclusions 3 9

opera te with theoretical assu m pti on s , of ten implicit, a bo ut nego ti a ti on s .S tudies that

dem on s tra te cl e a rly and ef fectively how nego ti a ti on theory can lead to useful re su l t s , su ch

as innova tive met h ods of c a ke - s p l i t ting or those that use findings from simu l a ti on s ,

should be wel com e . Equ a lly, those that cl e a rly dem on s tra te the app l i c a bi l i ty of t h eory to

com p l ex , re a l - world situ a ti ons (ei t h er in a specific dispute or in con f l i ct re s o luti on tra i ning) wi ll gain wi der accept a n ce than those that simply make abstract adva n ces in gen era l

k n owl ed ge .

Po l i c ym a kers might then con cede their opera ti onal premises more ex p l i c i t ly. For

ex a m p l e , as Lick l i der points out , for bet ter or worse po l i c ym a kers in the intern a ti on a l

com mu n i ty seek nego ti a ted set t l em ents to con tem pora ry civil wars . Would their stra tegies be improved by making their working assu m pti ons more explicit? Would they be

m ade more ef fective by focusing on sec u ri ty dilemma probl em s , as Lick l i der su gge s t s , or

the po l i tical econ omy and soc i o - p s ych o l ogical stu dy of “ w a rl ord s ,” as Jo s eph would have

it? Co u n teri n tu i tive findings ,l i ke the asserti on that civil wars en ded by nego ti a ti on are

m ore likely to recur than those set t l ed on the battlef i el d , dem on s tra te the kind of t h eory -

to - policy linkages that are most usef u l . It is do u btful that po l i c ym a kers wi ll stop see k i n g

n ego ti a ted set t l em en t s , but they may begin to think more abo ut making them more

du ra bl e . Th eories that ch a ll en ge conven ti onal practi ce may prec i p i t a te a healthy revi ew of

the guiding premises under wh i ch po l i c ym a kers may be opera ti n g.

Th eori s t s , for their part , of ten fail to apprec i a te that po l i c ym a kers must deal with the

m i nute details of a nego ti a ti on , so that wi de - ra n ging or overly abstract findings of ten

a ppear so obvious that they are , in ef fect ,u s el e s s . Balancing the spec i f i c i ty of re s e a rch

f i n d i n gs with the need for broader gen era l i z a ti on ,s om etimes cast as “l e s s ons learn ed ,” i s

the constant ch a ll en ge of those seeking to devel op app l i ed theory or theoreti c a lly

i n form ed practi ce . Th eorists need to be more aw a re that po l i c ym a kers seek su ch spec if i c i ty in knowl ed ge .

Th ere is also cl e a rly room for furt h er innova ti on in nego ti a ti on and med i a ti on tra i ni n g. Cl e a rly com p uter- b a s ed tech n o l ogies are leading to more ef fective te aching and

training too l s . The work of Child and Wi l ken feld and Kraus shows that new tech n o l ogi e s

can improve nego ti a ti on stra tegies and outcomes in topics as far apart as natu ral re s o u rce

ex tracti on in An t a rctica and hostage crisis talks. One is stru ck by the care in de s i gn and

a pp l i c a ti on that these sch o l a rs have em p l oyed to cre a te the con d i ti ons in wh i ch the simul a ti on of n ego ti a ti on emu l a tes re a l i ty. This is also true of Ch evri er ’s simu l a ti on of t h e

BWC nego ti a ti on s , wh i ch caref u lly lays out the limitati ons of devel oping co u n tries in

su ch talks, for ex a m p l e . In each of these training curri c u l a , the limits of s i mu l a ti ons are

clear—the stakes of i n tern a ti onal nego ti a ti ons can’t be reprodu ced in the cl a s s room or in

a training sem i n a r — but gen eral principles can be ef fectively illu s tra ted .

Aga i n ,l i ke theoretical stu dy, the purpose of the simu l a ted training is not to give practi ti on ers and stu dents a coo k i e - c ut ter approach to nego ti a ti on or to assume that the po ss i ble soluti ons are known in adva n ce . Ra t h er, the purpose of both theoreti c a lly ori en ted

re s e a rch and skills training is to sen s i ti ze practi ti on ers to the findings of ri gorous re s e a rch

and though t . Su ch training can high l i ght the com p l ex i ty of the issu e s ,i den tify implicit

a s su m pti on s ,h elp craft stra tegy, and hone practical skills for ch a ll en ges in wh i ch nego ti ati on and med i a ti on are the de s i red met h ods of con f l i ct re s o luti on .
4 0

G1 G2 G3 T o t a l

Bob’s Points 6 6 7 2 7 1 0 0

Carol’s Points 5 3 4 6 1 1 0 0

A p p e n d i x

Th e o retical Aspects of

Adjusted Winner Th e o r y

This appendix fe a tu res the form a l - t h eoretical aspects of the con tri buti on by Steven

Brams on Ad ju s ted Wi n n er theory (see ch a pter 2).

Adjusted Winner (AW )

As sume there are two parties and mu l tiple item s , or good s , that need to be divi ded .

As sume that each party can qu a n tify the rel a tive import a n ce of e ach good to itsel f in distri buting a total of 100 points over all the good s .

Ca ll the n goods to be divi ded G1,...,Gn, and the two players Bob and Ca ro l .E ach

p l ayer indepen den t ly all oc a tes a total of 100 points to the good s ,i n d i c a ting the worth of

e ach . The players then su bmit their point assign m ents to a referee or med i a tor, wh o

a s s i gns the goods in the fo ll owing manner. (The com p ut a ti on can be done on a com p uter. )

1 . Bob tem pora ri ly “ wi n s” those goods on wh i ch he put more poi n t s , and Ca rol wi n s

those on wh i ch she put more poi n t s .

2 . If the total nu m ber of points that each player wins is the same, t h en the task is comp l ete — except for dividing the goods on wh i ch they put the same nu m bers of

poi n t s , on wh i ch an equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm ent is made (see 3 bel ow ) .

3 . As sume Bob wins more points than Ca ro l . Th en he wi ll give back to Ca rol good s

( or parts of goods) in a certain order until both players have ex act ly the same nu mber of poi n t s . This tra n s fer is call ed the e q u i t a bi l i ty adjustm en t .

4 . The giveb ack starts with the good having the smallest ra tio of Bob’s points to

Ca ro l ’s ,t h en goes to the good with the nex t - s m a llest ra ti o, and so on .

As an ex a m p l e , su ppose there are three goods (G1, G2, G3) to wh i ch Bob and Ca ro l

m a ke the point assign m ents given in table A1 bel ow (the larger of the two point assignm ents is unders cored ) .

Table A1: Sample Point Assignments

In i ti a lly, G1 and G2 a re assign ed to Bob, giving him 73 of his poi n t s , and G3 i s

a s s i gn ed to Ca ro l , giving her 61 of h er poi n t s . Hen ce , goods must be tra n s ferred from

Bob to Ca rol to cre a te equ i t a bi l i ty.
No ti ce that the ra tio of Bob’s points to Ca ro l ’s on the two goods he wins is small er on

G1 (6/5 = 1.2) than on G2 (67/34 1 . 9 7 ) , so the tra n s fer begins with G1. But even tra n sferring all of G1 f rom Bob to Ca rol sti ll leaves Bob with an adva n t a ge over Ca rol (67 of

his points to 66 of h ers ) . Hen ce , we must next tra n s fer some of G2, as well , to Ca rol to

c re a te equ i t a bi l i ty.

Let x den o te the fracti on of G2 that wi ll be ret a i n ed by Bob, with the rest tra n s ferred

f rom him to Ca ro l . We ch oose x so that the re su l ting point totals are equal for Bob (lef t

s i de of the equ a ti on) and Ca rol (ri ght side of the equ a ti on ) :

6 7x = 61 + 5 + 34(1 – x)

wh i ch yi el d s x = 100/101 . 9 9 . Con s equ en t ly, Bob ends up with 99 percent of G2 for a

total of 66.3 of his poi n t s , wh ereas Ca rol ends up with all of G1 and G3, and 1 percent of

G2, for the same total of 66.3 of h er poi n t s .

Equ i t a bi l i ty is built into AW thro u gh the equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm ent of the points of t h e

t wo players .E nv y - f reeness fo ll ows from the fact that each player wi ll wind up with at

least 50 poi n t s ,a l t h o u gh this is not com p l etely obvious and requ i res a technical argum en t . More difficult to show is the ef f i c i ency of AW, wh i ch depends on two things :t h a t

one starts out with an ef f i c i ent distri buti on (that is, giving each player all the goods he or

she most va lues) and that one makes the equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm ent in the pre s c ri bed order

(that is, b a s ed on the small e s t - ra tio cri teri on ) . From these facts it can be shown that it is

i m po s s i ble to help both players with a different all oc a ti on ,i n cluding one that is not equ it a bl e .

It is worth noting that env y - f reeness and equ i t a bi l i ty both ad d ress the qu e s ti on of

wh et h er each player bel i eves he or she did as well as the other. The differen ce is that env y -

f reeness invo lves a com p a ri s on based on on e’s own va lu a ti on , wh i ch is captu red by the

fo ll owing qu e s ti on :Are you bet ter of f with your all oc a ti on and have no de s i re to swap

with the other player? Equ i t a bi l i ty, on the other hand, i nvo lves an interpers onal com p a ris on : Is your va lu a ti on of what you received equal to the other player ’s va lu a ti on of wh a t

he or she received ?

The equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm en t , wh i ch gives each player 66.3 of his or her points in the

ex a m p l e , m ay be interpreted as providing each player with what he or she perceives to be

n e a rly two - t h i rds of the total va lue of a ll three good s . I cauti on ,h owever, that the equ a li z a ti on of the players’ va lues assumes that points are “ad d i tive” and “l i n e a r.” Li n e a ri ty

means ro u gh ly that x percent of a good is worth k times as mu ch as x/k percen t ,a n d

a d d i tivi ty means that the va lue of t wo or more goods to a player is equal to the sum of

t h eir poi n t s .

A po ten tial drawb ack of AW is that, in theory, it may fail to indu ce the players to be

truthful in announcing their va lu a ti on s . But this theoretical vu l n era bi l i ty of AW tu rn s

o ut not to be real in almost all con ceiva ble situ a ti ons because an optimal ex p l oi t a ti on

s tra tegy requ i res having precise adva n ce inform a ti on abo ut the other party ’s all oc a ti on s

of i m port a n ce ; being of f by on ly one point could mean that the put a tive ex p l oi ter, as well

as his target , ends up receiving less than 50 poi n t s . This risk is likely to indu ce both side s

to sti ck cl o s ely to honest va lu a ti ons—unless one side has a spy in the other ’s camp, i n

≅

≅

Appendix 4 1
4 2 Appendix

P o l i t i c a l M i l i t a r y E c o n o m i c Pol. Coop. & Economic Gain

C o o p . P r o m i n e n c e G a i n C o n c e n t r a t i o n of Control

R e g i o n

North Central 4 0 3 0 2 00 0

South Central 3 0 0 0 0 3 0

E a s t 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 0

S o u t h 1 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 4 0

S o u t h e a s t 1 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 0

Table A2: Scenarios for China and ASEAN

wh i ch case a stra tegi c a lly more robust procedu re ,c a ll ed Proporti onal All oc a ti on (PA ) ,c a n

be invo ked (Brams and Tayl or, 1 9 9 6 , ch a p. 4 ) .

A p p l i c ations to the Sprat l y s

These scen a rios for China and ASEAN are su m m a ri zed in table A2 bel ow.

In all except com bi n a ti on (C1, A 1 ) , wh ere no equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm ent is needed bec a u s e

e ach side wins ex act ly 80 points by obtaining the zones on wh i ch it places more poi n t s ,

t h ere is an equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm en t . Si n ce this ad ju s tm ent occ u rs on the one zone that the

t wo sides va lue most equ a lly (in ra tio term s ) , it has the stron gest claim for being the

zone over wh i ch the two sides s h ou l d s h a re con tro l .

Practi c a lly spe a k i n g,what might su ch sharing mean? As an ex a m p l e , t a ke com bi n ati on (C2, A 1 ) , in wh i ch the So ut hwest is divi ded in the ra tio 7:1. Wh i ch side is en ti t l ed to

what islands? This qu e s ti on would be espec i a lly difficult to answer if t h ere were hyd roc a rbon deposits near some islands but not others . Al tern a tively, the two sides migh t

n ego ti a te a produ cti on and revenu e - s h a ring agreem en t ,b a s ed on this ra ti o.

(C1, A1) (C1, A2) (C2, A1) (C2, A2) (C3, A1) (C3, A2)

R e g i o n

North Central C C C C C C

South Central C 5/6C, 1/6A _ A _ A

E a s t CAA A A A

S o u t h A A A 3/7C, 4/7A A 3/7C, 4/7A

S o u t h e a s t A C 7/8C, 1/8A C 8/9C, 1/9A C

Total Points 8 0 7 5 6 5 8 2 . 9 6 4 . 4 8 2 . 9

Table A3: Allocations and Total Points

Pa i ring of f e ach of Ch i n a’s three scen a rios with A S E A N ’s two scen a rios gives six com bin a ti on s . The AW all oc a ti ons for these com bi n a ti on s , and the total nu m ber of poi n t s

e ach player receive s ,a re shown in table A3 bel ow.
Except for the zone on wh i ch there is an equ i t a bi l i ty ad ju s tm en t ,e ach side would ga i n

com p l ete soverei gn ty over all islands in the zone it wi n s . This is not to say, h owever, t h a t

j oint devel opm ent agreem ents would be ru l ed out . In deed ,t h ey might prove ex trem ely

a t tractive if a promising field overl a pped two zon e s .

The wi n n ers and partial wi n n ers show that each side ben efits su b s t a n ti a lly under AW.

Depending upon the com bi n a ti on of bi d s , both China and ASEAN re a l i ze bet ween abo ut

64 and 83 percent of t h eir obj ective s . Even in the worst case (C3, A 1 ) , e ach side get s

almost two - t h i rds of the zon e s , as it va lues them .

The AW scen a rios for China and ASEAN are meant to be illu s tra tive , because it is not

clear what pri ori ty each side would attach to different goa l s . The goals po s tu l a ted for the

S pra t ly players are plausibl e , but it is likely, e s pec i a lly for A S E A N , that the actual bi d d i n g

s tra tegies might ref l ect a bl end of these goa l s .

This bl en d i n g, of co u rse would produ ce different all oc a ti on s . However, the purpose of

this analysis is not to say what the “tru e” va lu a ti ons of China and ASEAN are but to illu stra te a m et h od ol o gy for re aching a fair set t l em en t .

This met h odo l ogy is unique in guara n teeing an env y - f ree , equ i t a bl e , and ef f i c i ent distri buti on of i tems that wo u l d , for all practical purpo s e s , be difficult to ex p l oi t . As AW is

a pp l i ed to other cases and ex ten ded theoreti c a lly, its uti l i ty to practi ti on ers as a tool for

enhancing intern a ti onal coopera ti on and sec u ri ty should incre a s e .

Appendix 4 3
About the Contributors

Steven Bra m s is a profe s s or of po l i tical scien ce at New York Un ivers i ty.

( s bra m s @ ny u . edu )

Ma rie Is a belle Ch evri eris a profe s s or of po l i tical scien ce at the Un ivers i ty of Tex a s ,

D a ll a s , and was a re s e a rch fell ow of Ha rva rd Un ivers i ty ’s Bel fer Cen ter for Scien ce and

In tern a ti onal Af f a i rs .( ch evri er @ utd a ll a s . edu )

Ja ck Chi l d is a profe s s or of Spanish and Latin Am erican studies in the Dep a rtm ent of

L a n g u a ge and Forei gn Studies of Am erican Un ivers i ty, Wa s h i n g ton , D. C .

( j ch i l d @ a m eri c a n . edu )

D a n i el Dru ck m a n is a profe s s or of con f l i ct re s o luti on at the In s ti tute of Con f l i ct An a lys i s

and Re s o luti on at Geor ge Ma s on Un ivers i ty, Fa i rf a x , Vi r gi n i a .( d d ru ck m a @ gmu . edu )

Ri ch a rd Jo s eph is a profe s s or of po l i tical scien ce at Emory Un ivers i ty.

( r j o s eph @ l e a rn l i n k . em ory. edu )

S a rit Kraus is a profe s s or of po l i tical scien ce at Ba r- Ilan Un ivers i ty, Is rael .

( s a ri t @ u m i ac s . u m d . edu )

Roy Lick l i der is a profe s s or of po l i tical scien ce at Rut gers Un ivers i ty, New Jers ey.

( rl i ck l i de @ rut gers . edu )

Vi c tor Rob i n s on is a doctoral candidate at the In s ti tute of Con f l i ct An a lysis and

Re s o luti on at Geor ge Ma s on Un ivers i ty, Fa i rf a x ,Vi r gi n i a .

Ti m o t hy D. Si s k is a sen i or re s e a rch assoc i a te of the Gradu a te Sch ool of In tern a ti on a l

S tudies at the Un ivers i ty of Denver in Co l orado. ( t s i s k @ du . edu )

Bertram Spec tor is pre s i dent of the Cen ter for Nego ti a ti on An a lysis and ed i tor of t h e

j o u rnal In tern a tional Negoti a ti o n .( b s pector @ m s i - i n c . com )

Jonathan Wi l ken fel d is a profe s s or with the Cen ter for In tern a ti onal Devel opm ent and

Con f l i ct Ma n a gem ent at the Un ivers i ty of Ma ryl a n d .( j wi l ken fel d @ g v pt . u m d . edu )

For more inform a ti on on the proj ects de s c ri bed , or for the list of referen ces cited in

p a rticular ch a pters ,i n tere s ted re aders are en co u ra ged to con t act the con tri butors at the email ad d resses given above .

4 4
About the Institute

The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan federal institution created by Congress to promote research, education, and training on the peaceful management and resolution of international conflicts. Established in 1984, the Institute meets its

congressional mandate through an array of programs, including research grants, fellowships, professional training, education programs from high school through graduate school, conferences

and workshops, library services, and publications. The Institute’s Board of Directors is appointed

by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate.

Chairman of the Board: Chester A. Crocker

Vice Chairman: Max M. Kampelman

President: Richard H. Solomon

Executive Vice President: Harriet Hentges

Board of Directors

Chester A. Crocker (Chairman), James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, School of Foreign

Service, Georgetown University

Max M. Kampelman, Esq. (Vice Chairman), Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver and Jacobson, Washington,

D.C.

Dennis L. Bark, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University 

Theodore M. Hesburgh, President Emeritus, University of Notre Dame

Seymour Martin Lipset, Hazel Professor of Public Policy, George Mason University

W. Scott Thompson, Professor of International Politics, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts

University

Allen Weinstein, President, Center for Democracy, Washington, D.C.

Harriet Zimmerman, Vice President, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Washington, D.C.

Members ex officio

Phyllis Oakley, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research

Daniel H. Simpson, Vice President, National Defense University

Walter B. Slocombe, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

Richard H. Solomon, President, United States Institute of Peace (nonvoting)

4 5
OF RELATED INTEREST

Many other publications from the United States Institute of Peace address issues that relate directly to

negotiation and mediation.

RECENT INSTITUTE REPORTS INCLUDE:

Territorial Disputes and Their Resolution: The Case of Ecuador and Peru, by Beth A. Simmons

(Peaceworks No. 27, April 1999)

Private Peacemaking: USIP-Assisted Peacemaking Projects of Nonprofit Organizations, edited by David

Smock (Peaceworks No. 20, May 1998)

To obtain an Institute report (available free of charge), write United States Institute of Peace, 

1200 17th Street NW, Suite 200, Washington, DC 20036-3011; call (202) 429-3828; fax (202) 429-6063; 

or e-mail: usip_requests@usip.org.

RECENT BOOKS FROM USIP PRESS INCLUDE:

Herding Cats: Multiparty Mediation in a Complex World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler

Hampson, and Pamela Aall (forthcoming spring 2000)

Peacemaking in International Conflict: Methods and Techniques, edited by I. William Zartman and J.

Lewis Rasmussen (1997)

Negotiating Across Cultures: International Communication in an Interdependent World (rev. ed.), by

Raymond Cohen (1997)

Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict, edited by Chester A. Crocker,

Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall (1996)

Power Sharing and International Mediation in Ethnic Conflicts, by Timothy D. Sisk (1996)

For book sales and order information, call 800-868-8064 (U.S. toll-free only) or 703-661-1590, or fax

7 0 3 - 6 6 1 - 1 5 0 1 .

Pe a c ewo rks 30

United Stat e s

Institute of Pe a c e

1200 17th Street NW

Washington, DC 20036
OTHER TITLES IN THE PEACEWORKS SERIES

Training to Promote Conflict Management: USIP-Assisted Training Projects, edited by David Smock (No.

29, July 1999)

The Challenge of Regional Cooperation in Central Asia: Preventing Ethnic Conflict in the Ferghana Valley,

by Anara Tabyshalieva (No. 28, June 1999)

Territorial Conflicts and Their Resolution: The Case of Ecuador and Peru, by Beth A. Simmons (No. 27,

April 1999)

The Quest for Democratic Security: The Role of the Council of Europe and U.S. Foreign Policy, by Heinrich

Klebes (No. 26, January 1999)

Nagorno-Karabakh: Searching for a Solution, by Patricia Carley (No. 25, December 1998)

Removing Barricades in Somalia: Options for Peace and Rehabilitation, by Hussein Adam and Richard

Ford, with Ali Jimale Ahmed, Abdinasir Osman Isse, Nur Weheliye, and David Smock (No. 24,

October 1998)

Muddling toward Democracy: Political Change in Grassroots China, by Anne F. Thurston (No. 23,

August 1998)

Preventing Genocide in Burundi: Lessons from International Diplomacy, by Stephen R. Weissman (No.

22, July 1998)

The China Challenge in the Twenty-First Century: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, by Chen Jian (No.

21, June 1998)

Private Peacemaking: USIP-Assisted Peacemaking Projects of Nonprofit Organizations, edited by David R.

Smock (No. 20, June 1998)

Sovereignty after Empire: Self-Determination Movements in the Former Soviet Union, by Galina

Starovoitova (No. 19, October 1997)

Keynote Addresses from the “Virtual Diplomacy” Conference, by Richard H. Solomon, Walter B. Wriston,

and George P. Shultz (No. 18, September 1997)

Greek-Turkish Relations and U.S. Foreign Policy: Cyprus, the Aegean, and Regional Stability, by Tozun

Bahcheli, Theodore A. Couloumbis, and Patricia Carley (No. 17, August 1997) 

U.S. Responses to Self-Determination Movements: Strategies for Nonviolent Outcomes and Alternatives to

S e c e s s i o n , by Patricia Carley (No. 16, July 1997)

Creative Approaches to Managing Conflict in Africa: Findings from USIP-Funded Projects, edited by David

R. Smock (No. 15, April 1997)

Police Functions in Peace Operations, by Roxane D. V. Sismanidis (No. 14, March 1997)

Can Foreign Aid Moderate Ethnic Conflict? by Milton J. Esman (No. 13, March 1997)

Training for Peace Operations: The U.S. Army Adapts to the Post–Cold War World, by Colonel J. Michael

Hardesty and Jason D. Ellis (No. 12, February 1997)

Zaire: Predicament and Prospects, by J. C. Willame et al. (No. 11, January 1997)

State and Soldier in Latin America: Redefining the Military’s Role in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, b y

Wendy Hunter (No. 10, October 1996)

Peace Operations and Common Sense: Replacing Rhetoric with Realism, by Denis McLean (No. 9, June

1 9 9 6 )

Serbian Nationalism and the Origins of the Yugoslav Crisis, by Vesna Pesic (No. 8, April 1996)