The notion of developing an ecological forecasting service for coastal managers grew out of a desire

to focus the new science enterprise in NOAA’s National Ocean Service around a prediction theme.

The more we discussed this idea with managers and scientists, the more we were convinced that this

concept would not only help converge wide-ranging research and observation programs around a

new and challenging science, but that it would also help enrich the science-policy interface. Such

forecasts will help answer managers’ “what if” questions, while at the same time challenge scientists

to move beyond measuring and understanding coastal ecosystems to building a capacity to assess

impacts of future change.

Initial workshops and planning sessions with the NOS’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

led to interactions across all of NOAA’s line offices and coincided with similar developments in

other agencies and in the academic ecological sciences community. While some rudimentary forecasts are being made now, the potential for this idea to move the field forward and connect it to

public policy development is unlimited.

I encourage you to look over this brochure, explore the potentials it offers, and join NOAA, other

agencies, and the coastal science and management communities to shape its future.

Donald Scavia

NOS Chief Scientist

Donald L. Evans

Secretary of Commerce

Scott B. Gudes

Acting Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere

Administrator and Deputy Under Secretary

Margaret Davidson

Acting Assistant Administrator for

 Ocean and Coastal Zone Management

Gary Matlock

Acting Director for National Centers for

Coastal Ocean Science
 “Predict the impacts of chemical biological and “Predict the impacts of chemical biological and

physical changes on ecosystems ecosystem

components and people

components and people components and people”

E



Improving decisions Improving decisions

Effective coastal stewardship requires an understanding of how today’s decisions will affect

the delivery of ecosystem goods and services in the future Ecological forecasts can provide

local state regional and Federal decision"makers with those assessments and predictions

so that strategies to sustain productivity and mitigate impacts from natural events and

human activities can be developed In other words “knowing” the future will produce

better informed decisions

Communication among scientists and managers Communication among scientists and managers

Bringing scientists and decision makers together to define what forecasts are needed what

time and space scales are most relevant and what form they should take helps translate

both management needs and science capabilities across traditional communication gaps

Focusing discussions around forecasts ensures relevance for coastal managers and provides

challenges for coastal scientists

Setting science priorities Setting science priorities

Developing and improving ecological forecasts that coastal decision makers want can help

focus the science agenda Setting goals around forecasts can help define what to monitor

what models to build and what ecosystem processes need to be better understood to

reduce uncertainty in the forecasts In this way from the enormous range of potential

scientific efforts one can choose those that are both challenging intellectually and serve the

more applied needs of the forecasts

There are three key benefits to focusing on ecological forecasts: they

will lead to better decisions they will improve communication be"

tween science and management and they will help set science priorities

merica’s ocean and coastal environments provide a wealth of resources a home for

many marine species and opportunities for business and recreation Sustaining

productive ecosystems and restoring damaged ones depends on our ability to

understand and predict the impacts of human activities and natural processes on those

systems — in other words to forecast change Forecasts are part of our every day lives

We rely on weather forecasts to plan the day’s events or prepare for a severe storm Eco"

nomic forecasts help individuals and businesses navigate the uncertainties of the financial

world Ecological forecasts will predict the impacts of chemical biological and physical

changes on ecosystems ecosystem components and people

A

cological forecasts:
Ecosystem responses are as varied

as the inputs that strain them

playing out on scales from hours

to decades and from local to

global

The following five examples in this

document illustrate ecological

forecasts across broad time and

spatial scales They demonstrate

the value of forecasts the capabili

ties needed to produce them and

the range of time and space scales

of ecosystem responses

The five key categories of ecosystem stress — pollution land and

resource use invasive species extreme natural events and climate

change — can challenge the integrity of ecosystems and impede the

delivery of their goods and services These stresses can act alone but

they often occur together and their cumulative affects are poorly un

derstood

Pollution Pollution – While the past three decades have

brought most chemical point sources under con

trol nonpoint sources particularly excess nitro

gen from agricultural and suburban runoff and

automobile and industrial emissions have become

increasingly significant stresses on coastal ecosys

tems

Climate Change Climate Change – Changes in sea level

temperature currents and stratification storm

frequency and intensity and precipitation will

change delivery of freshwater sediments and

pollution; while salinity tidal ranges erosion and

coastal flooding increase the vulnerability of

coastal ecosystems and communities

Land and Resource Use – Increasing do

mestic and international demands for food fiber and

space are accelerating changes in land and resource

use resulting in over harvested fisheries lost habi

tat degraded water quality and increased chemical

and sediment runoff

Invasive Species Invasive Species – Exotic plants and animals

brought to the US from other countries or moved

to new areas from within the US can damage na

tive plants and animals change native community

structure and produce enormous economic impacts

Extreme Natural Events Extreme Natural Events – Hurricanes

coastal storms floods and droughts produce pro

found ecosystem changes both directly and indi

rectly through their influence on other stressors

Predicting theses impacts is useful in both emergency

response and longterm planning

Forecasting ecosystem responses

,
The Issue: The Issue:

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) occur in every coastal state with cumulative economic costs

exceeding 3 billion They represent a scientifically complex and nationally relevant coastal

issue The movement of an HAB from ocean waters to shore can cause human illness and

death fish kills and marine mammal mortalities The following examples illustrate emerging

capabilities to detect and predict when and where such blooms will impact coastal resources

and communities

A short term regional A short term regional A short term regional

forecast: forecast:

Florida and

Gulf of Maine Red Tides

7

The Forecast: The Forecast:

Florida Red Tides Florida Red Tides  Florida red tides release neurotoxins that have killed fish and marine mammals and

can cause respiratory impairments for people along the shore This HAB can be detected using surface

chlorophyll concentrations derived by satellite imagery (see Figure 3) Coupling this imagery with field

data from ships can provide scientists with the information needed to alert local state and Federal

officials of the location and movement of the bloom These “nowcasts” and near term forecasts are

guiding monitoring and management actions by responsible officials

Gulf of Maine PSP  HAB blooms in the Gulf of Maine release toxins that produce Paralytic

Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) which can lead to closures of important fisheries and aquaculture operations

Computer models of the algae movement growth and death can simulate the distribution of the toxin

producing algal cells (see Figure ,) When fully developed and verified models like these will provide

early warning systems for coastal and marine resource managers and the public

The ultimate goal of HAB forecasting is to predict bloom development persistence and toxicity

With improved understanding of how physical and biological processes interact to promote HAB

development reliable models can support rapid response by monitoring agencies and health depart

ments to safeguard public health local economies and fisheries

Landfall of Harmful Algal Blooms

Georges

Bank

Nantucket

Shoals

Gulf of Maine

1 - Eggs

2.3 - Larvae

4,5 - Pelagic

6 - Demersal

Figure 3 Figure ,
Dark red indicates 
 oyster mortality

Water use Under a Changing Climate

The Issue: The Issue:

Meeting human demands for water can impact

the sustainability of key fisheries# The

reduction of freshwater flow to estuaries can

increase salinity and modify circulation

patterns$ resulting in impacts on the viability of

estuarinedependent fisheries# This increased

demand for water must also be evaluated in

the context of a potentially changing climate#

The following forecast predicts the impact of

reducing inflow of freshwater on oyster

abundance under different climatic conditions#

The Forecast: The Forecast:

Abundance of the oyster drill$ a major oyster

predator$ depends on salinity and the physical

stability of the water column# Computer mod

els$ based on alterations in freshwater inflow$

can simulate changes in salinity and stability

and relate those changes to the oyster drill#

These models were used to estimate oyster

mortality under two future scenarios: ) meet

ing human demands for water in the year +,

under current climate conditions and$ +) meet

ing those same demands under a potentially

dryer climate# The outcome from the models$

when compared to current rates of oyster

mortality$ show that changes in timing and

magnitude of freshwater inflow increases the

abundance of the oyster drill and consequently$

oyster mortality increases# The forecasts indi

cate that overall oyster mortality would almost

double from the current . to / when

meeting the +, human needs under normal

conditions and overall mortality would increase

,fold when meeting those same needs under a

dryer climate (see figure)#

1

Normal Flow Conditions - Present Year

Projected Normal Flows - Year 2050

Projected Drought Flows - Year 2050

A longterm regional A longterm regional A longterm regional

forecast: forecast:

Apalachicola Bay

Oysters
abitat Recovery

,

The Issue: The Issue:

Sea grass beds are valuable ecosystems that provide refuge and forage opportunities for wild

life$ fishes$ and invertebrates# To reestablish these important habitats$ successful restoration

efforts should be based on selecting suitable sites for seagrass growth and estimating recovery

rates# In fact$ these approaches have been used in recent successful court cases related to sea

grass damage assessment#

A longterm local A longterm local A longterm local

forecast: forecast:

Integrating Sea Grass

Recovery Rates and

Environmental Suitability

The Forecast: The Forecast:

A model of the influence of wave disturbance$ the primary physical detriment to growth$ was

integrated with maps of seagrass coverage and bathymetry off the coast of Beaufort$ North

Carolina$ to forecast the probability of seagrass cover# The model provides forecasts of the

probability of habitat cover within the study area (see Figure )$ indicating the best areas for

seagrass restoration$ and the probabilities of where habitat cover will be lost to acute storm

events#

Coupling the identification of suitable environments for recovery with forecasts of the rate of

recovery (see Figure +)$ provides milestones for measuring the effectiveness of restoration

efforts and a basis for assessing damages in habitat restoration cases#

H

Figure +

Predicted Recovery

From Model

Empirical Data

100% Recovery

➙

➘

➙

Figure 

Study Boundary

Probability of Seagrass

Cover

Seagrass

Land

Marsh

High - 80%

Low - 30%
Land Use & Coastal Ecosystems

The Issue:

According to recent reports from the National Academy of Sciences$ excess nitrogen inputs

and the resulting symptoms of coastal eutrophication — algal blooms$ loss of submerged

aquatic vegetation$ and depletion of dissolved oxygen (hypoxia) — is the most serious

coastal pollution problem# Based on estimates of population growth and estuarine suscep

tibility$ a recent NOAA report also predicted that 
/ estuaries are likely to show increased

eutrophication symptoms by the year ++ (see Figure )# Because most impacts are

caused by the discharge of nutrients from point and nonpoint sources$ forecasts of poten

tial changes in eutrophic and hypoxic conditions under various load scenarios are needed#

The Forecast: The Forecast:

The Gulf of Mexico contains almost half of the nation’s coastal wetlands and supports

approximately + of the dollar value of its commercial fishery landings# Annually$ #/

million metric tons of nitrogen is flushed into the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi River

system$ stimulating algal growth in surface waters# Recent studies have provided over

whelming evidence that this increased nitrogen input into the Mississippi River system has

caused severe oxygen depletion and other related nutrient overenrichment problems#

NOAAsupported models$ simulating nutrient cycling$ algal growth and death$ physical

ocean dynamics$ and processes contributing to changes in oxygen concentration$ were used

to forecast the effects of various nitrogen load reduction scenarios# The forecasts indicate

that decreasing loads by +1 percent would increase bottomwater oxygen concentra

tions by ,, percent (see Figure +)# These findings were a key element in reaching a

Federal/state/tribal agreement on an action plan for reducing nitrogen loads and decreasing

Gulf hypoxia#

A longterm national A longterm national A longterm national

forecast: forecast:

Estuarine and

Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia

/

Figure  Figure +
Georges

Nantucket

Gulf of Maine

1 - Eggs

2.3 - Larvae

4,5 - Pelagic

R

A longterm regional A longterm regional A longterm regional

forecast: forecast:

Recovery of the

Georges Bank

Ecosystem

esource Use & Climate Change

>

The Issue: The Issue:

Oceanographic and fishery science has provided key insights into how climate change may

affect the dynamics of fish ecosystems# Current research focused on the potential role that

climate variability has on the success of particular yearclasses of key species will provide a

backdrop of natural variability for harvest and habitat decisions of fisheries managers#

Understanding the linkages among resource distribution$ climate variation$ and manage

ment actions can potentially aid in the conservation and recovery of species#

The Forecast The Forecast

Increased fishing on Georges Bank$ one of the most biologically productive areas in the

temperate coastal ocean$ has resulted in massive ecological shifts and significant declines in

fisheries# Valuable species$ such as cod and haddock$ have been dramatically reduced and

replaced by lower valued species$ decreasing$ for example$ the value of the Georges Bank

cod fishery from 1, million in ..A to +1#, million in ..
# Even though large areas of

Georges Bank have been closed to fishing for cod$ haddock$ and shellfish$ their recovery is

also regulated by environmental variation# A predictive understanding of these interactions

will help support management actions affecting recovery#

A conceptual model$ based on physical and biological observations$ shows that in warm

years$ mackerel$ a key predator on larval cod and haddock$ moves on to Georges Bank in

May (see Figure )$ which coincides with the annual clockwise migration of cod and had

dock larvae (see Figure +)# This can significantly reduce the potential population size of

adult cod and haddock# In contrast$ in colder years$ mackerel do not migrate onto the Bank

and predation is much lower# Models and monitoring systems are being developed to

provide short and medium range forecasts to the National Marine Fisheries Service$ allow

ing managers$ such as the New England Fishery Management Council$ to have better

information on the role of environmental variability and climate change in determining

abundance of living marine resources#

Figure  Figure +
NOAA$ through the National Ocean Service’s National Centers for Coastal

Ocean Science$ is focusing coastal science toward building and improving

ecological forecasts# However$ success depends on partnerships at all levels$

from universities and local and state governments to other Federal agen

cies#

With strong partnerships in place$ NOAA will work with decision makers

inside and outside government to identify forecast needs$ and support the

internal and extramural capability to respond to those needs#




Partnerships for implementation artnerships for implementation
•Lead to better-informed decisions

•Improve communication between

science and management

•Help set science priorities

Our goal is to build an assemblage of ecological forecasts Our goal is to build an assemblage of ecological forecasts

over the next , years so that scientists and

resource managers can use them to

guide management of guide management of

our Nation’s coastal our Nation’s coastal

resources# resources#

cological forecasting will:

E n

For more information$ email us at:

ecoforecast@noaa#gov