OUR CHANGING PLANET

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program

for Fiscal Year 2008

A Report by

the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

A Supplement to the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2008

PREVIEW OF
April 2007

Members of Congress:

I am pleased to transmit a copy of Preview of Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science

Program for Fiscal Year 2008. The Preview provides a timely and brief description of the plans for

FY 2008 as well as a summary of recent accomplishments, and is intended to support CCSP-related

elements of the FY 2008 budget. A more comprehensive reporting of accomplishments, plans, and

budgets will be published later in the year as the FY 2008 edition of the Climate Change Science

Program (CCSP) annual report, Our Changing Planet. CCSP incorporates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program, which was established under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, and the

Climate Change Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001. CCSP coordinates and

integrates scientific research on climate and global change supported by 13 participating departments

and agencies of the U.S. Government.

This FY 2008 Preview highlights recent advances supported by CCSP-participating agencies in each of

the program’s research and observational elements, as called for in the Strategic Plan for the U.S.

Climate Change Science Program. The Preview includes an analysis of the significant recent progress that

CCSP has made toward its overarching goals. The document describes the coordination of research and

overall program management, and the eight key interagency implementation priorities for FY 2008.

The document also outlines how CCSP plans to continue implementation of the Strategic Plan during

FY 2008, emphasizing work on 21 scientific synthesis and assessment reports integrating research

results focused on key issues and related questions of interest to decisionmakers. 

CCSP is committed to its mission to facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s

global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication. I thank the

CCSP-participating agencies for their close cooperation, and look forward to working with Congress in

the continued development of this important program. 

Respectfully,

William J. Brennan

Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program

Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change Research

Department of Commerce / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
PREVIEW OF OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE U.S. CLIMATE

CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FISCAL YEAR 2008

Introduction, CCSP Vision, and Mission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

CCSP Goals and Analysis of Progress Towards These Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

Program Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

Coordinating Research Elements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

Integrated Program Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17

Key Interagency Implementation Activities . . . . . . . . . .17

Decision Support: Information to Support Policy

Development and Adaptive Management . . . . . . . . . . . .21

Synthesis and Assessment Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

“Lessons Learned” in Decision Support

and Assessment – NRC Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

Final Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

References and Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

APPENDICES

A. Climate Change Science Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

B. Synthesis and Assessment Products By CCSP Goal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

Numbered superscripts in the text indicate endnotes.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
The purpose of this document is to provide a timely and brief preview of plans for

FY 2008 as well as a summary of recent accomplishments. A more comprehensive

reporting of accomplishments, plans, and budgets will be published later in 2007 as

the full Our Changing Planet – Annual Report.

Climate plays an important role in shaping the environment, natural resources,

infrastructure, economy, and other aspects of life in all countries of the world.

Therefore, variations and changes in climate can have substantial environmental and

socioeconomic implications. The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) was

established in 2002 to empower the Nation and the global community with the

science-based knowledge to manage risks and opportunities of change in the climate

and related environmental systems. CCSP incorporates and integrates the U.S.

Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) with the Administration’s U.S.

Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI). The USGCRP was mandated by

Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, 104 Stat.

3096-3104) to improve understanding of uncertainties in climate science, expand

global observing systems, develop science-based resources to support policymaking

and resource management, and communicate findings broadly among scientific

and stakeholder communities. Thirteen departments and agencies of the U.S.

Government participate in CCSP. These departments and agencies are listed in

Appendix A of this report.

Climate research conducted over the past several years indicates that most of the

global warming experienced in the past few decades is very likely due to the

observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. Research

also indicates that the human influence on the climate system is expected to

increase.1 It is therefore essential for society to be equipped with the best possible

knowledge of climate variability and change so that we may exercise responsible

stewardship for the

environment, lessen

the potential for

negative climate

impacts, and take

advantage of positive

opportunities where

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PREVIEW OF THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE

SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2008

A nation and the global community empowered

with the science-based knowledge to manage

the risks and opportunities of change in the

climate and related environmental systems.

CCSP GUIDING VISION
O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

they exist. The importance of these issues and the unique role that science can play in informing

society’s responses give rise to CCSP’s guiding vision.

CCSP carries out its mission through four core approaches: scientific research, observations, decision

support, and communication. These approaches build upon scientific advances of the last few decades

and are deepening our understanding of the

interplay of natural and human-caused

forces, their implications, and response

options. CCSP is developing information to

facilitate comparative analysis of different

approaches for adapting to and mitigating

climate change. CCSP also promotes capacity

development among scientists and information users—both in the developed and the developing

world—to address the interactions between climate change, society, and the environment.

CCSP GOALS AND ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSTOWARD THESE GOALS

At the highest conceptual level, five goals have been identified to provide focus and facilitate programmatic

integration (see box on page 4). These goals encompass the full range of climate-related issues.

The program’s detailed objectives, milestones, and products and payoffs complement these overarching

goals, and are articulated in the program’s Strategic Plan. CCSP-participating agencies and departments

coordinate their work through discipline-related “research elements,” which together support scientific

research across a wide range of interconnected issues of climate and global change.

The goals address the most common questions concerning climate change which include:

• To what extent and how is the climate system changing?

• What are the causes of these changes?

• What will the future climate be like and what effects will a changed climate have on ecosystems,

society, and the economy?

• How can we best apply knowledge about ongoing and projected changes to decisionmaking?

This section of the Our Changing Planet FY 2008 - Preview provides a high-level overview of progress

made toward the program’s goals in the 12 to 18 months prior to the preparation of this report.

Because of the program’s breadth and wide-ranging progress, this overview gives only a sampling of

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Facilitate the creation and application of

knowledge of the Earth’s global environment

through research, observations, decision

support, and communication.

CCSP MISSION
Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

the advances made. In addition, this section does not purport to provide a thorough assessment of

climate change or the extent of the scientific uncertainties that remain. Instead, it provides examples

that illustrate the scope and significance of the progress that CCSP has made in expanding and applying

understanding of climate. 

The primary focus of U.S. climate research has historically been on Goals 1 through 3, which emphasize

improvements in fundamental understanding of the climate system, its driving forces, and the tools to

make predictions of short-term climate variability and potential long-term climate change more reliable.

As the science matures and its societal utility becomes more evident, the importance of Goals 4 and 5

has become more significant. Examples of progress provided under each of the goals are often the

result of coordinated research activities from many disciplines conducted or supported across the

participating CCSP agencies. 

Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural

variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

Analyses based on observations provide a solid foundation for the program. These analyses contribute

to improved understanding of Earth system processes, help determine the extent of climate variations,

and provide true comparisons to test and advance model veracity. In the past year, analyses have

enabled several important advances in understanding the nature and variability of the Earth system. The

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Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its

natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems.

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may

change in the future.

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and related global changes.

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change.

CCSP GOALS
O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

illustrative examples of progress toward CCSP’s Goal 1 are drawn from and integrate a variety of

different CCSP research elements.

One example of these integrated analyses is illustrated by the progress made in understanding climate

change at high latitudes. Temperature and moisture patterns over North America and Europe are

experiencing an earlier transition from winter to summer. The warmer spring temperatures produce

earlier springtime green-up of vegetation and longer growing seasons.2 Satellite, airborne, and groundbased observations suggest significant changes occurring in the mass balance of Greenland and

Antarctic ice sheets that are inferred to be caused by warming at high latitudes.3,4 Climate model

simulations suggest that the global pattern of regional temperature and moisture trends is more readily

explained by estimated human activity and natural climate forcing5 than by internal variability alone.

These wide-ranging sets of analyses tie together findings from traditionally disparate disciplines including

hydrology, glaciology, and ecology.

Progress has been made in understanding changes in atmospheric ozone through observations and

comparisons with models of the atmosphere. Satellite observations have shown that the large ozone

decreases over Antarctica have been accompanied by significant but smaller summertime ozone increases

at higher levels of the Antarctic atmosphere. A chemical-climate model confirms these observations.6

Other related modeling research has shown that warming of the tropical lower atmosphere due to

increased greenhouse gases may accelerate the large-scale motions of the stratosphere and thus alter

the global distribution of ozone.7

In the past decade, measurements have been made from a variety of platforms including satellites and

ocean buoys, showing the top layers of the oceans to be warming with strong evidence that the warming

is due to increases in human-produced greenhouse gases.1 Ocean heat storage is the largest component

of the Earth’s climate system for storing the energy imbalance between the sources and sinks of thermal

energy. Even though the methods of observations are quite different, the matching magnitude and

annual variability of the satellite-derived energy imbalance and the ocean heat storage is considered to

be quite remarkable and lends confidence to the interpretation of the underlying climate process.8

Although CCSP Goal 1 is focused on basic research, it is often quite relevant to society. An example is

work on identifying relationships between climate variability and change and hurricane activity.

Studies suggest that increasing tropical sea surface temperatures are associated with more intense, but

not necessarily more frequent, hurricanes.9 However, the conclusion that there has been a detectable

global trend in hurricanes has been questioned due to uncertainty in the observational tropical cyclone

databases used for trend detection.10 Model results indicate that observed sea surface temperature

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

changes in the Atlantic and Pacific regions where tropical storms are formed are due to a combination

of natural variability and forcing caused by human activities.11,12 A recent study indicates that the

extensive cooling observed over the subtropical North Atlantic during the summer of 2006 appears to

be related to variations in the Saharan dust transported to that region. The study suggests that the causes

for the reduced number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes during the summer of 2006 (compared to

forecasts for 2006) may include both Saharan dust transport and El Niño.13

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

In making long-term climate projections, an understanding of the factors responsible for global

environmental change is necessary. These forcing factors include greenhouse gases, land cover changes,

tiny airborne particles (aerosols), and solar variability. As in the previous Goal, the following examples

of progress toward CCSP Goal 2 result from the integrated focus of multiple CCSP research elements.

Recent climate warming has been particularly intense in boreal and Arctic regions, leading to concern

that increasing air temperature in these ecosystems may indirectly increase the incidences of forest fires.

Beyond the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases from fires, understanding the

consequences of large-scale fires on climate is challenging due to the many additional ways in which they

influence the atmosphere and surface. A recent study in Alaska found that there was intensification in

the climate warming in the first year after a major fire but a slight decrease in the climate warming

when averaged over the 80 years of the study. The long-term result, which was primarily due to plant

re-growth increasing the summertime reflectivity of the burn-scarred surface, appears to be more

significant than the fire-emitted greenhouse gases.14The result implies that future increases in boreal

fires may not further intensify long-term climate warming.

CCSP’s interdisciplinary research on the carbon cycle has produced a set of analyses utilizing long-term

observations of several new and mature forests. Results from this work show that forest carbon storage

has been increasing in these ecosystems and is not in balance with the carbon lost by respiration and

decay. This result is contrary to the contemporary concept of near balance of carbon sources and sinks in

mature forests.15The gain in forest carbon is typical of findings from the U.S.-based large-scale networks,

as well as observations made in mature forests in China. Evidence is therefore mounting that these sinks

for atmospheric CO2 offer significant potential for modulating the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase.16

Incorporation of the sub-surface water table into regional climate models is important since land cover

changes produce significant effects on the water table and the hydrologic cycle. Shallow water tables

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

can be either a sink or source of water to the surface soil depending on the relative balance of infiltration

versus evaporation.17 Recent studies using detailed observations and regional climate models have

found that the fraction of rainfall that either recharges groundwater or ends up as stream flow tends to

decrease when the fraction of land devoted to agriculture increases. This result suggests that intense

agriculture can amplify surface water stresses, particularly during drought conditions.18

In western states, large changes in land cover and land use have occurred over the past century with

rapidly expanding urbanization along the Pacific coast and extensive agricultural development inland.

Researchers exploring the effects of urbanization and agriculture on regional climate have found that

irrigated agriculture in California tended to lower mean and maximum surface air temperatures, while

conversion of natural vegetation to urban areas tended to increase ground temperatures. The surface

temperature changes and their associated effects on the atmosphere also caused changes to the regional

airflow. Overall, it was found that conversion of natural vegetation to irrigated agriculture has likely

had a larger effect on California’s climate than urban growth, but increased conversion of irrigated land

to urban/suburban development could alter this conclusion.19

Scientists are concerned that increased permafrost thawing due to warming in Arctic regions could

cause the release of substantial amounts of carbon long held in the frozen tundra. There appears to be

two potential mechanisms for the carbon to reach the atmosphere: drainage of the carbon-rich river

flow into the Arctic Ocean with subsequent emission, and direct respiration or recycling of the newly

thawed carbon. Measurements made in the Yukon River basin in northern Canada have shown that the

latter process predominates.20

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems

may change in the future.

The accuracy of estimates of future Earth system conditions at time scales ranging from months to

centuries and at spatial scales ranging from regional to global has been significantly improved by CCSP

research. The primary tools for Earth system prediction and projection are computer models that

reflect the best available knowledge of Earth system processes. The following examples demonstrate

the integration of observations and modeling necessary to contribute to the progress being made in

CCSP Goal 3.

For a model to produce a realistic climate requires that it include realistic representations of physical

processes such as cloudiness, precipitation, and solar energy. Recent innovative studies using newly

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

developed, detailed models of cloud processes that are coupled with a global climate model provide

results that are significantly more consistent with observations.21The incorporation of improved cloud

representation in climate models is expected to reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and

regional water cycle and surface climate. 

Sunlight not reflected back to space provides the driving energy to Earth’s weather and climate systems.

Clouds are a major component in the global reflectance of sunlight. Year-to-year variability in the global

reflectance is dominated by the variability of cloudiness in the tropics.22 On the other hand, scientists

have recently found that the year-to-year variability of reflectance at middle and high latitudes has had

little change despite decreases in the highly reflective snow and sea-ice cover. This fascinating result

appears to be due to the compensating increase in cloud cover balancing the decreasing surface level

reflectance. Clouds continue to provide the largest source of uncertainty in model estimates of climate

sensitivity, although a recent study finds evidence that in most climate models used in the Working

Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) clouds provide a positive feedback.23

Analyses of climate model simulations generated for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have identified

several additional characteristics of the climate change projections that are common to all of the

models.24 Examples of these robust model projections include strong subtropical drying, weakening of

large-scale tropical atmospheric motions, and expansion of the poleward upper atmospheric wind

pattern known as the Hadley circulation.

In another study, several models were used to investigate the effects of the input of freshwater from

melting ice and glaciers on the currents in the North Atlantic.25These currents are important due to

their large-scale transport of heat. The study concluded that in response to expected levels of freshwater

input in the northern North Atlantic, the average modeled large-scale deep ocean current weakens by

about 30% by the end of the century. All models simulate some weakening of this deep circulation, but

no model simulates a complete shutdown of it.

CCSP researchers also use the geological record to test and apply climate models, particularly in cases

where that knowledge has a bearing on climate change processes relevant to current society. One

such analysis involves the largest known extinction in Earth’s history that took place approximately

250 million years ago at the Permian-Triassic boundary, where approximately 95% of marine and 75%

of terrestrial species were lost. In this study, a climate model simulation indicated that the elevated

levels of CO2 during this period led to climatic conditions inhospitable to both marine and terrestrial

life.26 It is hypothesized that a critical level of high-latitude warming was reached where the connection

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

of oxygen-rich surface waters to the deep ocean was dramatically reduced, thus leading to a shutdown

of marine biologic activity, which in turn led to increased atmospheric CO2 and accelerated warming.

The historical record provides a broader set of observations to test and apply climate models to help

reduce uncertainty in their future projections. A recent study has used a simple model to attempt to

reproduce paleoclimate reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past 7 centuries

in response to estimated solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gas forcing during this period.27This study

suggests that, for the current century, very high climate sensitivities predicted by some models for

greenhouse gas concentration doubling are less likely than previously thought.

Projections made by CCSP research pertain not just to physical climate, but also to other components

of the Earth system, including atmospheric chemistry. Continuing research has provided an estimate

that the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole will occur approximately 10 to 20 years later than the

previous estimate of 2050.28 As a result of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the use of ozone

depleting substances (ODSs) has been greatly reduced. Improved understanding of atmospheric dynamics

now give 2001 as a better estimate of when the ODS peak occurred in the Antarctic stratosphere. This

date is later than had been previously estimated and results in a longer projected time scale for recovery

back to pre-1980 (unperturbed) levels of ODSs.

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and related global changes.

Significant advances have been made in understanding the potential impacts of climate change. One of

the characteristics of CCSP research is the use of many different sources of information, including

analyses utilizing prehistoric information, direct observations, and model-based projections. Recent

research also accounts for the dynamic nature of the response of human and natural systems to climate

change. This research encompasses a wide range of potential impacts on societal needs such as water,

health, and agriculture, as well as potential impacts on natural terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The

integrated approach to developing the understanding sought in CCSP Goal 4 is illustrated in the

following examples.

Tools and research resulting from carbon cycle science are highly relevant to carbon management as

demonstrated by a recent study that estimated the spatial variability of net primary production and

potential biomass accumulation over the conterminous United States.29This study’s model-based

predictions indicate a potential to remove carbon from the atmosphere at a rate of 0.3 GtC yr-1

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

through afforestation30 of low production crop and rangeland areas. This rate of carbon sequestration31

would offset about one-fifth of the annual fossil fuel emissions of carbon in the United States. 

The changing adaptability of coastal marshes is illustrated by a study of a coastal ecosystem. In a

Chesapeake Bay marsh ecosystem, rising sea level, increasing CO2, and high rainfall were shown to

interact and improve the growth of a relatively tall bulrush at the expense of a hay-like cordgrass that

grows in thick mats.32 Such changes in species composition, caused by interacting global change factors,

may influence the capacity of coastal marshes to rise in elevation at the pace required to keep abreast

of sea-level rise because of species-specific differences in their ability to trap sediment and organic

material. 

Another example of the ecological consequences of climate change affecting adaptability involves the

devastation of millions of acres of western U.S. and Canadian pines by Bark beetles during the

warmth and drought of 2000-2004. Recent modeling and observations revealed that beetles invading

northernmost Lodgepole Pine trees are now only a few miles from previously pristine Jack Pine

populations.33This may create a direct pathway of invasion to valued pine forests in the eastern 

United States and Canada. 

CCSP’s integrated approach to understanding the sensitivity and adaptability of natural ecosystems to

climate change has also been applied in remote regions. The West Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing

some of the largest, most rapid warming on Earth, which is causing loss of sea ice and increased snow

precipitation. In turn, these changes are having major contrasting impacts on the adaptability of different

penguin species. For example, during the last 3 decades in the region, populations are shifting south, so

that local abundance of the ice-dependent and snow-intolerant Adélie penguins decreased (-65%),

while abundance of Chinstraps and Gentoos increased (+2730% and +4600%, respectively).34 Climate

warming in the Canadian Arctic has caused significant declines in total cover and thickness of sea ice

and progressively earlier ice breakup in some areas. These changes impact the polar bear populations

causing them to extend their normal fast for longer periods during the open-water season.35

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge

to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

A substantial investment in basic research focused on global environmental variability and change has

provided a significant set of opportunities for applying this knowledge in local and regional planning. To

explore and communicate the potential uses and limits of this knowledge, CCSP is taking the following

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O U R C H A N G I N G P L A N E T

three approaches: the development of scientific syntheses and assessments; exploration of adaptive

management and planning capabilities; and development of methods to support climate change policy

inquiries. A few noteworthy examples of the progress made by CCSP in pursuing these approaches and

actively working with the user community to apply this knowledge to manage risks and opportunities

are described below.

CCSP scientists developed and documented a “water supply stress index” that calculates water shortage

risks across the conterminous United States. The index is based on models and observations that integrate

the effects of climate, land cover, and current water uses by municipalities and industries on water

supply.36The water supply stress index and the methods associated with it will be used by local and

regional decisionmakers to quantify the likelihood of future water shortages under changing climate,

water, and land uses, for determining mitigation practices.

An example of regional decision support is the work carried out by the Consortium for Atlantic

Regional Assessment (CARA), which is providing data and tools to help decisionmakers understand

how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use.

On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has organized data on climate (historical records and

future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental

variables to help inform local and regional decisionmakers.37The CARA tools and tutorials are

designed to help in understanding the issues related to land use and climate change by gathering,

organizing, and presenting information for evaluating alternative strategies.

A workshop involving scientists and managers, co-led by several CCSP agencies under the auspices of

the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, resulted in publication of A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching.38

The combined research results among state/territorial, federal, academic, non-governmental, and

international scientists concluded that warming sea-surface temperatures are a key factor in mass coral

bleaching events. The Guide provides managers with strategies that support the natural resilience of

coral reefs in the face of climatic change.

CCSP researchers have developed new metrics for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and carbon

sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors.39These sectors can reduce atmospheric greenhouse

gas concentrations by increasing carbon sequestration in biomass and soils, by reducing fossil fuel

emissions through use of biomass fuels, and by substituting agricultural and forestry products that

require less energy than other materials to produce. The Department of Energy’s National Greenhouse

Gas Registry is utilizing the new metrics as the basis for reporting greenhouse gas information from

the agricultural and forestry sectors.40

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PROGRAM MANAGEMENT

CCSP’s coordination of scientific research is through the research elements described in the following

section. The management approach as described in the CCSP Strategic Plan integrates the planning and

implementation of individual climate and global change research programs of the participating Federal

agencies and departments to reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and synthesize

products and deliverables generated under the auspices of CCSP. Five mechanisms are used to achieve

this management approach:

• Executive Direction – The Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology

and the CCSP Interagency Committee are responsible for overall priority setting, program direction,

management review, and accountability to deliver program goals.

• Agency Implementation – CCSP-participating departments and agencies are responsible for

conducting research, developing modeling tools, developing and operating observing systems, and

producing CCSP-required products, often in collaboration with interagency working groups.

• Interagency Planning and Implementation – Several interagency working groups, including one for

each CCSP research element, are responsible for coordinating planning and implementation to align

agency programs with CCSP priorities.

• External Guidance and Interaction – External advisory groups and organizations, including the

National Academies (see section below), provide external guidance, oversight, and interactions to

ensure scientific excellence, credibility, and utility.

• Program Support – The CCSP Office provides staffing and day-to-day coordination of CCSP-wide

program integration, strategic planning, product development, and communications.

COORDINATING RESEARCH ELEMENTS

Efforts to foster integration occur on many levels. One is improving coordination of scientific research

and the flow of information through interdisciplinary and interagency working groups focused on each

of seven main research elements of the program plus a number of cross-cutting activities or themes.

CCSP’s research elements include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global

water cycle, land-use and land-cover change, the global carbon cycle, ecosystems, and human

contributions and responses to environmental change. Chapters 3 to 15 of the CCSP Strategic Plan

contain more detailed discussions of the discipline-specific research elements, as well as elements that

cut across all areas of the program. A brief summary of each of these research and cross-cutting elements

is provided below, as well as a few highlights of planned activities. These and other activities will be

described in more detail in the full volume of Our Changing Planet FY 2008 – Annual Report.

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Integrating research and observational approaches across disciplinary boundaries is essential for

understanding how the Earth system functions and how it will change in response to future forcing.

This is due to the interconnectedness among components of the Earth system, which often relate to

each other through feedback loops. Interdisciplinary interactions in CCSP are scaled to the nature of

the problem. In some cases, the necessary science may be conducted within a small set of disciplines,

such as those required to improve understanding of soil biogeochemical processes. In other cases,

highly interdisciplinary approaches are required, such as in the case of making projections about the

future state of the Earth system and analyzing their implications. In the latter example, expertise

ranging from the social sciences to atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to oceanography to the

biological sciences is required.

Interdisciplinary research is only one aspect of the integration facilitated by CCSP. Integration in CCSP

also refers to the steps being taken to create more seamless approaches between the theory, modeling,

observations, and applications that are required to address the multiple scientific challenges being

confronted by CCSP. Finally, integration in CCSP also refers to the enhancement of cooperation across

agencies toward meeting the objectives articulated in the CCSP Strategic Plan. 

Atmospheric Composition – The composition of the atmosphere on global and

regional scales influences climate, air quality, stratospheric ozone, and precipitation.

Consequently, this impacts human health and the vitality of ecosystems. Research

and observational activities coordinated and supported by CCSP are being used to

assess how human activities and natural processes affect atmospheric composition,

and how that understanding may be used to inform decisionmaking in the United

States and abroad. In FY 2008, emphasis will be given to studies of interactions between aerosols and

non-CO2 gases, enhanced measurements of atmospheric water vapor, and interactions of pollutants

with climate change. Special emphasis will be given to the climate impacts of pollutants associated with

aviation.

Climate Variability and Change (including Climate Modeling) – Recognizing that

the climate system operates seamlessly across a wide spectrum of time scales,

CCSP-supported research encompasses both short-term climate variability and

longer term climate change. Addressing the interaction of climate processes across

time scales poses challenges not only in designing observation systems to monitor

the climate system adequately, but also in constructing models that can properly

reproduce its past, and confidently project its future behavior. Earth system models, in combination

with global Earth observations, must produce internally consistent maps of atmospheric, oceanic, land

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

surface, and ice conditions both in near real-time and retrospectively. These maps, or “analyses,” will

provide decisionmakers with tools to visualize the evolving state of the full climate system over the

entire planet, and researchers with the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system.

Global Water Cycle – Research associated with this element involves studies of the

crucial role the water cycle plays both in climate variability and change, and

climate and variability have on aspects of the global water cycle upon which society

and nature critically depend. The ultimate goal of this water cycle research is to

provide a better foundation for decisions and investments by policymakers,

managers, and individuals. Achieving this goal requires a program of activities

that test predictions and data products in real decision contexts, demonstrate techniques and their

effectiveness to potential users, and provide tools and strategies to transfer the science from the

experimental realm to operations.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change – Land use and land cover are linked to climate

and weather in complex ways and are critical inputs for modeling greenhouse gas

emissions, carbon balance, and ecosystems. Land-use and land-cover change

(LULCC) studies have provided critical inputs to large-scale biomass and forest

cover assessments; future LULCC goals include reducing uncertainties in biomass

estimates, understanding regional heterogeneities in changes, and quantifying

linkages and feedbacks between LULCC, climate change, and other human and environmental

components. Research that examines historic, current, and future LULCC, its drivers, feedbacks to

climate, and its environmental, social, economic, and human health consequences is therefore of

utmost importance and often requires interagency and intergovernmental cooperation. Research plans

focus on how management practices may change as climate and conservation policies change, and

feedbacks among these systems.

Global Carbon Cycle – Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and methane (CH4)

are major drivers of climate change. The global carbon cycle element of the CCSP

seeks to better quantify and understand the dynamics of the global carbon cycle

that determine CO2 and CH4 fluxes and carbon storage in terrestrial and oceanic

ecosystems. Carbon cycle processes depend on climate, and thus linking carbon

cycle and climate change analyses is critical. Carbon cycle research involves

multiple disciplines and extends over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Major multi-agency

activities include the North American Carbon Program (NACP), an effort to describe and reduce

uncertainties about the North American carbon budget and underlying processes, and the Ocean

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Carbon and Climate Change (OCCC) Program, an effort for oceanic research aimed at determining

how climate change will affect the future behavior of the oceanic carbon sink. In FY 2008, NACP will

address key gaps and uncertainties in the synthesis developed previously (Synthesis and Assessment

Product 2.2), and aspects of OCCC and NACP will be coordinated to better quantify and understand

the roles of adjacent ocean basins in the North American carbon budget. NASA will launch the

Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) to provide for the first time consistent atmospheric carbon

observations globally from space, and carbon data assimilation systems will begin to derive estimates of

carbon sources and sinks from these measurements.

Ecosystems – This research element studies the potential effects of global change

on goods and services provided by aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, using

observations, experiments, modeling, and syntheses to focus on critical emerging

questions. Newly initiated projects in terrestrial ecosystems are addressing

cause-and-effect relationships between climatic variability and change, and the

distribution, abundance, and productivity of native and invasive organisms.

Further, research is continuing into understanding how increasing CO2 levels affect plants and

microorganisms. Research in a Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is generating data to evaluate and forecast

effects of warming, changes in fishing pressure, and eutrophication on economically important estuarine

ecosystems. In the ocean, coral reef research is helping scientists and managers identify climatic and

non-climatic stressors and thereby better manage these important ecosystems.

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human

Contributions and Responses – Decisionmakers and other interested citizens need

reliable science-based information to make informed judgments regarding policy

and actions to address the risks and opportunities of variability and change in

climate and related systems. A wide variety of CCSP decision-support resources

and related research on human contributions and responses is targeted at that

objective. The outcomes of these activities are intended to inform public discussion of climate-related

issues and scientifically assess and expand options for mitigation of and adaptation to climate variability

and change. The most prominent of CCSP’s ongoing decision-support activities is its synthesis and

assessment process that involves the generation of 21 different products intended to support public

discussion of climate science issues of particular importance to U.S. decisions. CCSP’s research on human

contributions and responses to global environmental variability and change includes analyses of human

drivers of change and their potential impact, societal resilience and ways of reducing vulnerability,

approaches for improving the ability of decisionmakers to utilize scientific information, and the effects

of global environmental change on human health. CCSP’s research is paying particular attention to

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

aspects of global change that have greatest relevance to society including drought and extreme or

abrupt climate events.

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System – CCSP provides active stewardship

for observations that document the evolving state of the climate system, allow for

improved understanding of its changes, and contribute to improved predictive

capability for society. Some of these observations however are not part of the

CCSP budget (such as operational satellites) but are crucial to its success. A core

CCSP activity is U.S. participation in the broad-based strategy of the international

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) in monitoring atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial

domains with an appropriate balance of in situ and remotely sensed observations. In 2007-2008,

GCOS-related observing activities by CCSP agencies will focus on observing the polar climate as part

of the International Polar Year (IPY) series of international cooperative studies. IPY plans to advance

polar observations by establishing a variety of new multidisciplinary observatories using the latest

technologies in sensor web (network of spatially distributed sensor platforms that wirelessly communicate

with each other) and power-efficient designs. Data from these as well as more traditional surface- and

space-based observatories will provide high-quality records needed to detect potential future climate

change. The United States plans to increase its efforts on observations of the polar atmosphere, ice, and

ocean, as well as leverage its investments in polar research with international partners. A continuing

challenge to CCSP agencies is ensuring the long-term integrity and understandability of data products

provided by remote-sensing and in situ observing systems.

Communications – CCSP’s member agencies support a broad array of

communications initiatives. CCSP has developed a strategy and implementation

plan for helping to coordinate and facilitate these activities. These efforts are

intended to improve public understanding of climate change research by

disseminating the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively, and by making

CCSP science findings and products easily available to a diverse set of audiences.

CCSP facilitates communication of the results of individual agencies, as well as providing coordination

in communicating the results of climate activities of the Federal Government.

International Research and Cooperation – CCSP, through its working groups

including the Interagency Working Group on International Research and

Cooperation, participates in and provides input to major international scientific

and related organizations on behalf of the U.S. Government and scientific

community. CCSP also provides support to maintain the central infrastructure of

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several international research programs and international activities that complement CCSP and U.S.

Government goals in climate science.

INTEGRATED PROGRAM ANALYSIS

In a highly distributed program such as CCSP, it is often a challenge to develop and maintain a cohesive

perspective, ensuring that key components or interactions of the integrated Earth system are not

overlooked. To help address this challenge, the program has often sought guidance from the National

Academies. CCSP is funding a National Research Council (NRC) committee to provide high-level,

independent, integrated advice on the strategy and evolution of the program. Specific topics the

committee will address in its first two reports are outlined below:

• The first committee report will include findings and recommendations on the process for evaluating

progress toward the five CCSP goals and a preliminary assessment of progress to date.

• The second report will identify priorities to guide the future evolution of the program in the

context of established scientific and societal objectives. 

At the request of CCSP, the NRC recently produced a report on global change assessments that is

briefly described in a later section of this Preview.

CCSP will continue to rely on other mechanisms for scientific guidance and advice, including other

NRC committees that focus on particular components of the climate system (e.g., the Climate

Research Committee and the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change). CCSP will

also continue to utilize scientific advisory groups that support individual agencies, scientific steering

groups organized to coordinate different CCSP research elements, and open dialogue with the

domestic and international scientific and user communities interested in global change issues. 

KEY INTERAGENCY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIVITIES

The program’s long-term vision, mission, goals, and objectives are described in the Strategic Plan.

Implementation of this long-term plan occurs through agency activities that often benefit significantly

from ongoing coordination facilitated by CCSP. CCSP has identified several key areas for FY 2008 that

require particularly strong interagency coordination to achieve success; they cannot be adequately

addressed by one agency alone. Although these priorities are only a small part of the overall program,

they are vital mechanisms through which CCSP will continue to integrate agency activities to create

knowledge and products that are greater than the sum of the individual agency inputs. The development

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

of CCSP interagency priorities is the result of a variety of planning processes, including planning

processes within the 13 CCSP-participating agencies and interagency planning conducted by the CCSP

Interagency Committee (i.e., the Subcommittee on Global Change Research) and its subsidiary

Interagency Working Groups. CCSP’s interagency planning is informed by external advice from several

National Research Council committees. CCSP’s annual implementation priorities are logical evolutions

of the program’s interagency approaches to the priorities established in the Strategic Plan. The selection

criteria for these activities require that they are founded upon a solid intellectual basis and are of high

scientific quality; require coordination and/or integration across multiple CCSP agencies to create

value-added products and services that cannot be created by any one agency alone; improve the

characterization of key areas of scientific uncertainty and/or improve decision-support tools; provide a

timely response to a particular need or leveraging opportunity; and are cost-effective.

The interagency implementation priorities generally represent only a fraction of CCSP’s portfolio,

which requires sustained, ongoing support to achieve its full set of objectives. The focus areas are listed

here in a similar order as the research elements described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. However, due to

their integrative nature, they do not follow a one-to-one mapping to the research elements.

Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability – By combining global observations of

the atmosphere, ocean, land, biosphere, and ice-covered areas with models that dynamically couple

these components of the Earth system, it will be possible to produce internally consistent maps (i.e.,

“analyses”) of the state of the planet. Time series of such analyses will allow researchers to better

explain observed changes in the climate system and will allow decisionmakers to develop more

informed options to deal with future changes. Building upon progress in successfully modeling the

ocean and atmosphere as coupled components, activities in FY 2008 will work toward constructing a

high quality “reanalysis” of the ocean-atmosphere system from the start of the satellite era (late 1970s).

Further advances in producing integrated Earth system analyses will require progress in ongoing efforts

to construct models that properly simulate the interactions among the physical and biogeochemical

processes in the climate system.

Carbon Cycle Research Integration – CCSP’s carbon cycle research element will integrate the research

efforts of the North American Carbon Program and relevant aspects of the Ocean Carbon and Climate

Change Program to better quantify and understand the carbon budget of North America and adjacent

ocean basins, including terrestrial, freshwater, oceanic, and atmospheric sources and sinks, the underlying

processes, and the dynamics that determine influences on atmospheric CO2 and CH4. This integration

will clarify and reduce uncertainties about the North American carbon budget and provide better

information for the decisionmaking processes of carbon management. Improved observations, methods,

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and understanding of carbon cycling will be integrated into global models and analysis systems to

provide more reliable capabilities for studying and predicting future changes in atmospheric CO2 and

CH4 and carbon storage by terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems.

Abrupt Changes in a Warming Climate – Paleoclimate research indicates that major shifts in regional and

global climate have occurred on time scales as short as decades, severely impacting rainfall patterns,

droughts, ecosystems, and human civilizations. Assessing the potential for future abrupt changes and

implementing the capability to diagnose and predict their development will require concerted efforts

to improve Earth system analysis, decadal forecasting capabilities, reconstructions of past abrupt climate

change, and understanding of societal impacts. Activities in FY 2008 will emphasize (1) model

experiments designed to test potential mechanisms for abrupt change, and (2) paleoclimate research

on patterns, causes, and impacts of past abrupt climate events. Both activities will help set priorities for

enhanced monitoring toward developing an abrupt change early warning system.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Biodiversity and Productivity of Ecosystems – Research will

include new activities on two topics of urgency: (1) vulnerability of coastal ecosystems, both terrestrial

and aquatic, to climate-related changes, including sea-level rise, increased sedimentation and runoff,

increased storm frequency or intensity, saltwater intrusion, and oceanic warming; and (2) warminginduced changes in high-latitude and high-elevation ecosystems, including changes in species

compositions, alterations in the timing of water availability, migration of the tree line, retreat of

glaciers, and loss of permafrost and sea ice. Both these topics require additional research on

underlying ecological processes and development of models linking geophysical and ecological

phenomena.

Integration of Water Cycle Observations, Research, and Modeling – The FY 2008 interagency priority for

the global water cycle is the initiation of a multi-year activity that is planned to include a series of

integrated projects, each building upon the experience gained from previous years. FY 2008 activities

will focus on the evolution of an observing system aimed at measuring key elements required to close

the terrestrial water cycle budget on a regional scale such as a river basin or watershed. Enabling links

with other projects will be explored through the Hydrological Information System portal, including

data/product delivery to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). In future

years, an expansion in scope is envisaged to encompass time scales from seasonal to inter-annual, and

spatial scales from local to regional to global. This activity is designed to benefit both the broader

research community as well as the operational applications community through a more accurate

quantification of the water cycle and improved mathematical formulations of physical processes.

Results will be incorporated into climate and hydrological prediction models.

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Climate: Interactions and Critical Observations – Land-use and

land-cover priorities include: understanding historic, current, and potential future land-use and landcover change patterns, dynamics, and drivers; understanding the mutual effects and feedbacks between

climate variability and land-use/land cover; and forecasting environmental, social, economic, and

human health consequences. All of these land-use and land-cover change priority questions directly

influence climate, by affecting atmospheric trace gas composition and surface reflectance, and are thus

critical to a broad spectrum of CCSP interests. The collection, archival, and subsequent scientific use of

global Landsat data from 2005-2006 is a priority for FY 2008, through the “mid-decadal Landsat data

collection effort.” The FY 2008 priority also includes support for the ongoing Landsat Data Continuity

Mission to continue the collection of global Landsat data. Without these satellite observations, the

current pace of discovery and innovation in global land-use and land-cover change climate research

would not be possible.

Understanding Aerosol Forcing and Interactions with Clouds and Non-CO2 Trace Gases – The key

objectives of this set of activities are to quantify the effects of atmospheric aerosols (tiny airborne

particles) on radiation and on clouds, to quantify the modification of the radiation balance by non-CO2

greenhouse gases, and to quantify the influence of the chemistry of the lower atmosphere on both

aerosols and non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Research will include use of newly initiated and enhanced

measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere and water vapor’s role

in altering climate directly and via its influence on aerosols, cirrus clouds, and chemical composition.

Initial studies on the potential contributions of air pollution, including that from aviation, to global climate

forcing will be started. In addition, field missions are planned to understand the transport and properties

of absorbing aerosols and their precursors to the Arctic polar region as a part of the International Polar

Year in an effort to quantify the contribution of absorbing aerosols to the melting of the Arctic ice.

Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships – Building trust and collaborative

efforts with stakeholders to help them take advantage of climate information, especially in the area of

drought planning, is a long-term effort that requires consistent and continual interactions. Research in

this area will focus on the development of methods, models, and mechanisms for integrating climate

information into analyses of the social and economic ramifications of drought as well as the policy and

decisionmaking processes in the face of drought. Scientific data products will include paleoclimatic and

historical information about drought and its impacts, seasonal-to-interannual observations and predictions

of drought, and longer term projections of decadal-to-centennial variability and change. Social and

economic impact analyses including historical perspectives and near-term trends such as projections of

water conflicts, water demand, population changes, and land-use changes will be used to augment the

physical-science analyses. This effort is linked to the National Integrated Drought Information System.

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DECISION SUPPORT: INFORMATION TO SUPPORT

POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

CCSP sponsors and conducts research that is ultimately related to policy and adaptive management

decisionmaking. CCSP’s decision-support approach is guided by several general principles, including: 

• Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders

• Explicit treatment of uncertainties

• Transparent public review of analysis questions, methods, and draft results

• Evaluation of lessons learned from ongoing and prior decision-support and assessment activities.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

As noted previously, CCSP is generating synthesis and assessment products that integrate research

results focused on key issues and related questions frequently raised by decisionmakers. Current

evaluations of the science can be used for informing public debate, policy development, and adaptive

management decisions and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program.

The synthesis and assessment products constitute an important new form of topic-driven integration of

U.S. global change assessment efforts. These CCSP products will be U.S. Government disseminations,

subject to the provisions of the Information Quality Act (Section 515 of the Treasury and General

Government Appropriations Act of 2001) and the Federal Advisory Committee Act Amendments of

1997 (PUB. L. 105-153, SEC. 2(A), (B), DEC. 17, 1997, 111 STAT. 2689). 

The synthesis and assessment products are generated by researchers in a process that involves review

by experts, public comment from stakeholders and the general public, and final approval by the

departments/agencies involved in CCSP. Formal endorsement of the products by the Federal

Government will enhance their value for decisionmakers and the public at large. The program has

prepared guidelines that describe steps to be followed in each of three phases of the preparation

process: developing the prospectus, drafting and revising, and final approval and publication. This

methodology for product development facilitates involvement of the research community and user

groups in ensuring that the products are focused in a useful fashion and meet the highest standards of

scientific excellence. The guidelines also encourage transparency by ensuring that public information

about the status of the products will be provided through the Federal Register, on the CCSP website,

and other means throughout the review and clearance process. If further clarification of specific issues

is required, the NRC will provide advice on an as-needed basis to the lead agency responsible for the

preparation of each product. 

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Preview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2008

The first product (1.1) has been completed and several others are nearing completion. Up-to-date

information on the status of all Synthesis and Assessment products can be obtained from

<http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/default.htm>, including information on opportunities

for public comment on draft products. A listing of each of the 21 Synthesis and Assessment products by

CCSP Goal is provided as Appendix B.

“LESSONS LEARNED” IN DECISION SUPPORT AND ASSESSMENT

To build on the experiences of earlier assessment activities, CCSP requested that the National Research

Council carry out an analysis of global change assessments that have addressed topics broadly similar to

those encompassed by CCSP. The study, which was released in early 2007, included a comparative

analysis of past assessments that address issues directly related to the science and technical issues of CCSP.

The committee concluded that global change assessments are critical for informing decisionmakers. In

identifying essential properties of a successful assessment it stressed that future assessment processes

must communicate relevant information to the user, address the technical quality of the information,

and demonstrate fairness and impartiality in the assessment process. The report identifies a number of

essential elements that increase the probability that an assessment will effectively inform decisionmakers

and other target audiences. CCSP will take into account the findings of the NRC in its future assessment

activities.

FINAL NOTE

It is hoped that this Preview provides a useful perspective on CCSP’s recent progress and plans for

FY 2008. The full Our Changing Planet – Annual Report describing the program in greater detail will

be published later in 2007.

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REFERENCES AND ENDNOTES

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Hydrology and Management of Forested Wetlands Proceedings of the International Conference 8-12 April 2006, 701P0406.

37) See <http://www.cara.psu.edu>.

38) Marshall, P.A. and H.Z. Schuttenberg, 2006: A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

Authority, Townsville, Australia.

39) Birdsey, R.A., 2006: Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector. Journal Environmental Quality,

35, 1518-1524.

40) See <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/frntvrgg.html>.

24
Appendix A. Climate Change Science Program

25

The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) integrates federally supported research on global change and climate change, as

conducted by 13 U.S. Government departments and agencies:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Department of Commerce (DOC)

– National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

– National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

• Department of Defense (DOD)

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior / U.S. Geological Survey (DOI/USGS)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

In addition, the Executive Office of the President and other related programs have designated liaisons that participate on the CCSP

Interagency Committee, including: 

• Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

• Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)

• Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

• Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

• Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM).

CCSP relies not only on the agency programs stated in its budget cross-cut, but also on agency activities that are not formally included

in the CCSP budget. Examples of these directly related activities are NOAA’s long-term surface, balloon, and satellite-based

meteorological observations; surface hydrologic and satellite land-cover observations from USGS; and NOAA’s future satellite

measurement programs. Without input from activities such as these, CCSP would be unable to fulfill its mission.

CCSP is closely allied with other major interagency programs that observe and study particular aspects of the Earth system and related

societal dimensions. Foremost among these is the CCTP, which develops and studies technological options for responding to climate

change. CCSP is also closely linked to ongoing Federal ocean science and technology strategic planning under the auspices of the

Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, which recently released a set of integrating decadal-scale priorities in a

document entitled Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and

Implementation Strategy. A key observational linkage is with the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System, which contributes to the

international Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Connections to programs such as these allow CCSP and its

partners to leverage their resources to derive mutual benefits from advances in any one program.

The CCSP incorporates and integrates the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) with the Administration’s U.S. Climate

Change Research Initiative (CCRI). CCSP budget requests are coordinated through interagency research working groups and other

mechanisms, but ultimate budget accountability resides with the participating departments and agencies. As a result of its interagency

composition, the activities of CCSP-participating agencies are funded by Congress through nine of the 13 annual Appropriations bills.

The CCSP budget will be described in the soon-to-be-released Federal Climate Change Expenditures Report to Congress for FY 2008. A

more complete breakdown of the CCSP, CCRI, and USGCRP budgets will be provided in Our Changing Planet FY 2008 – Annual Report.
Appendix B. Synthesis and Assessment Products by CCSP Goal

26

CCSP GOAL 1 Extend knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability,

and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and reconciling differences.

1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes.

1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.

CCSP GOAL 2 Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

2.1 A. Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations.

B. Global change scenarios: Their development and use.

2.2 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle.

2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.

2.4 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure.

CCSP GOAL 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future.

3.1 Climate models: An assessment of strengths and limitations for user applications.

3.2 Climate projections based on emissions scenarios for long-lived radiatively active trace gases and future climate impacts of shortlived radiatively active gases and aerosols.

3.3 Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate: Regions of focus – North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands.

3.4 Abrupt climate change.

CCSP GOAL 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems

to climate and related global changes.

4.1 Coastal elevations and sensitivity to sea-level rise.

4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate

sensitive resources.

4.3 The effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources.

4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

4.5 Effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States.

4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems.

4.7 Impacts of climate variability and change on transportation systems and infrastructure: Gulf coast study.

CCSP GOAL 5 Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to

climate variability and change.

5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions.

5.2 Best-practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

5.3 Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal-to-interannual forecasts and observational data.