James R. Mahoney

Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Director, Climate Change Science Program

Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change Research

Jack Kaye, Vice Chair

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Margaret S. Leinen, Vice Chair

National Science Foundation

James Andrews

Department of Defense

Mary Glackin

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

William Hohenstein

Department of Agriculture

Linda Lawson

Department of Transportation

Patrick Leahy

U.S. Geological Survey

Patrick Neale

Smithsonian Institution

Aristides Patrinos

Department of Energy

Joel Scheraga

Environmental Protection Agency

James T. Smith

U.S. Agency for International Development

[To Be Named]

Department of Health and Human Services

Harlan Watson

Department of State

EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND OTHER LIAISONS

David Conover

Department of Energy

Director, Climate Change Technology Program

David Halpern

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Bryan Hannegan

Council on Environmental Quality

Amy Kaminski

Office of Management and Budget

Margaret R. McCalla

Office of the Federal Coordinator for

Meteorology

Andrea Petro

Office of Management and Budget

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM and

SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

This document describes the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) for FY 2006. It provides a summary

of the achievements of the program, an analysis of the progress made, and budgetary information. It thereby

responds to the annual reporting requirements of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (section 107,

P. L. 101-606). It does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or make

any findings of fact that could serve as predicates for regulatory action. Agencies must comply with required

statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any statements in this document or by the CCSP as

a basis for regulatory action.
OUR CHANGING PLANET

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program

for Fiscal Year 2006

A Report by

the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

A Supplement to the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2006
November 2005

Members of Congress:

We are pleased to transmit a copy of Our Changing Planet:The U.S. Climate Change

Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006.The report describes the activities and plans of the

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program, established under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, and the

Climate Change Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001. CCSP coordinates

and integrates scientific research on climate and global change supported by 13 participating

departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

This FY 2006 edition of Our Changing Planet highlights recent advances supported by

CCSP participating agencies in each of the program’s research and observational elements,

as called for in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program released in

July 2003. It describes a wide range of new and emerging observational capabilities which,

combined with the program’s other analytical work, are leading to remarkable advances in

understanding the underlying processes responsible for climate variability and change.

The document illustrates advances in U.S. modeling capabilities to represent past, present,

and potential future changes in the physical and biological dimensions of the Earth system.

The report also highlights progress being made to explore the uses and limitations of

evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and

change.The final chapter documents the program’s numerous current activities to promote

cooperation between the U.S. scientific community and its worldwide counterparts.

The document also outlines how CCSP plans to continue implementation of the CCSP

Strategic Plan during FY 2006. A significant emphasis in 2006 will be continued work on

the production of 21 scientific synthesis and assessment reports on a wide range of topics

to support informed discussion of climate change by decisionmakers and the public.
CCSP is committed to its mission to facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of

the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and

communication.We thank the CCSP participating agencies for their close cooperation,

and we look forward to working with Congress in the continued development of this

important program.

John H. Marburger III

Director, Office of Science 

and Technology Policy

Executive Director,

Committee on 

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration

Samuel W. Bodman

Secretary of Energy

Chair, Committee on

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration

Carlos M. Gutierrez

Secretary of Commerce

Vice Chair, Committee on

Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2006 . . 1

Integrating Climate and Global Change Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

CCSP FY 2006 Priority Areas and New Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Decision Support: Information to Support Policy

and Adaptive Management Decisionmaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

Outline of Research Element Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

AND PLANS FOR FY 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Atmospheric Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Climate Variability and Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Global Water Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Global Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related

Research on Human Contributions and Responses . . . . 116

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

International Research and Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

APPENDICES

The Climate Change Science Program Participating Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

Climate Change Science Program FY 2006 Budget Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .pocket

TABLE OF CONTENTS
THE U.S. CLIMATE 

CHANGE SCIENCE

PROGRAM
Climate influences the environment, natural resources, the economy, and other

aspects of life on Earth.The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) was established

in 2002 to empower the Nation and the global community with the science-based

knowledge to manage risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related

environmental systems. CCSP incorporates and integrates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program (USGCRP) with the Administration’s U.S. Climate Change

Research Initiative (CCRI).

The USGCRP was established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to enhance

understanding of natural and human-induced changes in the Earth’s global environmental

system; to monitor, understand, and predict global change; and to provide a sound

scientific basis for national and international decisionmaking.

While the Earth has always undergone changes in its climate and environment, the

potential importance of human contributions to change on a global scale has emerged

comparatively recently.

The importance of the

issues and the unique role

that science can play in

informing society’s

responses give rise to

CCSP’s guiding vision.

2

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

FOR FY 2006

A nation and the global community empowered

with the science-based knowledge to manage

the risks and opportunities of change in the

climate and related environmental systems.

CCSP GUIDING VISION
The core precept that motivates CCSP is that the best possible scientific knowledge

should be the foundation for the information required to manage climate variability

and change and related

aspects of global change.

Research conducted

through CCSP is building

on scientific advances of

the last few decades and

is deepening our understanding of the interplay of natural and human-caused forces.

CCSP is developing information to facilitate comparative analysis of different

approaches to adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. CCSP also promotes

capacity development among scientists and information users – both in the developed

and the developing world – to address the interactions between climate change,

society, and the environment.

INTEGRATING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

CCSP integrates the USGCRP, which was mandated by Congress in the Global

Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, 104 Stat. 3096-3104), and the CCRI,

which was established by President Bush in 2001, to improve understanding of

uncertainties in climate science, expand global observing systems, develop sciencebased resources to support policymaking and resource management, and communicate

findings broadly among scientific and stakeholder communities.Thirteen departments

and agencies of the U.S. Government participate in CCSP, including:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA) 

• Department of Commerce / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(DOC/NOAA)

• Department of Defense (DOD) 

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior / U.S. Geological Survey (DOI/USGS)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

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OUR CHANGING PLANET

Facilitate the creation and application of

knowledge of the Earth’s global environment

through research, observations, decision

support, and communication.

CCSP MISSION
4

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006

Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems

to a new or changing environment that

exploits beneficial opportunities or

moderates negative effects.

Climate

The statistical description of the mean

and variability of relevant measures of

the atmosphere-ocean system over

periods of time ranging from weeks to

thousands or millions of years.

Climate Change

A statistically significant variation in

either the mean state of the climate or in

its variability, persisting for an extended

period (typically decades or longer).

Climate change may be due to natural

internal processes or to external forcing,

including changes in solar radiation and

volcanic eruptions, or persistent humaninduced changes in atmospheric

composition or in land use.

Climate Feedback

An interaction among processes in the

climate system in which a change in one

process triggers a secondary process that

influences the first one. A positive

feedback intensifies the change in the

original process, and a negative feedback

reduces it.

Climate System

The highly complex system consisting of

five major components: the atmosphere,

the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the

land surface, the biosphere, and the

interactions between them.The climate

system evolves in time under the

influence of its own internal dynamics

and because of external forcings such as

volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and

human-induced forcings such as the

changing composition of the atmosphere

and land-use change.

Climate Variability

Variations in the mean state and other

statistics of climatic features on temporal

and spatial scales beyond those of

individual weather events.These often

are due to internal processes within the

climate system. Examples of cyclical

forms of climate variability include the

El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North

Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific

Decadal Oscillation.

Decision-Support Resources

The set of observations, analyses,

interdisciplinary research products,

communication mechanisms, and

operational services that provide timely

and useful information to address

questions confronting policymakers,

resource managers, and other users.

Global Change

Changes in the global environment

(including alterations in climate, land

productivity, oceans or other water

resources, atmospheric chemistry, and

ecological systems) that may alter the

capacity of the Earth to sustain life

(from the Global Change Research Act

of 1990, PL 101-606).

Mitigation 

An intervention to reduce the humaninduced factors that contribute to

climate change.This could include

approaches devised to reduce emissions

of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere;

to enhance their removal from the

atmosphere through storage in geological

formations, soils, biomass, or the ocean;

or to alter incoming solar radiation

through several “geo-engineering” options.

Observations

Standardized measurements (either

continuing or episodic) of variables in

climate and related systems.

Prediction 

A probabilistic description or forecast of

a future climate outcome based on

observations of past and current

climatological conditions and quantitative

models of climate processes (e.g., a

prediction of an El Niño event).

Projection

A description of the response of the

climate system to an assumed level of

future radiative forcing. Changes in

radiative forcing may be due to either

natural sources (e.g., volcanic emissions)

or human-induced factors (e.g., emissions

of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or

changes in land use and land cover).

Climate “projections” are distinguished

from climate “predictions” in order to

emphasize that climate projections depend

on scenarios of future socioeconomic,

technological, and policy developments

that may or may not be realized.

Weather

The specific condition of the atmosphere

at a particular place and time, measured

in terms of variables such as wind,

temperature, humidity, atmospheric

pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation.

DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS
In addition, the Executive Office of the President and other related programs have

designated liaisons who participate on the CCSP Interagency Committee, including:

• Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

• Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)

• Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

• Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

• Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM)

• National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Appendix A, “The Climate Change Science Program Participating Agencies,” contains

information about the specific missions and roles of each agency participating in

CCSP. Appendix B, “Climate Change Science Program FY 2006 Budget Tables,” in the

insert pocket, contains budgetary analyses of the program grouped by agency as well

as a program-wide interagency cross-cut grouped by the strategic goals and research

elements of CCSP as described in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change

Research Program published in July 2003.

As a multi-agency program, CCSP harnesses the unique approaches and missions of

its participating agencies to encourage research that leads to expanded and new

results. A significant challenge that arises from working across many agencies is

integrating climate and global change research to develop a comprehensive view of

climate change and its potential significance. CCSP adds value to the individual Earth

and climate science missions of its 13 participating agencies and their national and

international partners by coordinating research and facilitating integration of

information to achieve results that no single agency, or small group of agencies, could

attain.

CCSP relies not only on the agency programs stated in its budget cross-cut, but also

on agency activities that are not formally included in the CCSP budget. Examples of

these directly related activities are NOAA’s long-term surface, balloon, and satellitebased meteorological observations; surface hydrological and satellite land-cover

observations from USGS; and future satellite measurement programs including the

tri-agency (NOAA, DOD, NASA) National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental

Satellite System (NPOESS) and the planned multi-program implementation of

continuity of Landsat observations.Without input from activities such as these, CCSP

would be unable to fulfill its mission.

CCSP also relies on and provides input to other major interagency programs that

observe and study particular aspects of the environment and associated human activities.

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OUR CHANGING PLANET
Foremost among these is the Climate Change Technology Program, which develops

and studies technological options for responding to climate change. A key observational

linkage is with the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System, which is part of the

international Global Earth Observation System of Systems. CCSP is also linked to

another set of activities articulated in the Ocean Action Plan recently released by the

Cabinet-level Committee on Ocean Policy. Connections to programs such as these

allow CCSP and its partners to leverage their resources to derive mutual benefits

from advances in any one program.

Coordinating Research Elements

Efforts to foster integration occur on many levels. One is improving coordination of

scientific research and the flow of information through interdisciplinary and interagency

working groups focused on each of seven main “research elements” of the program

plus a number of cross-cutting activities or themes. CCSP’s research elements include

atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle,

land-use and land-cover change, the global carbon cycle, ecosystems, and human

contributions and responses to environmental change. For each of the research

elements, recent highlights and program plans for FY 2006 are described in subsequent

chapters of this report.The budget tables appendix contains information on the CCSP

budget by research element.This budget cross-cut illustrates integrative management of

the program that starts from research-driven requirements and extends to coordinated

planning to distribute and integrate work efficiently across CCSP’s participating agencies.

Integration through Products Addressing CCSP Goals

CCSP seeks to integrate basic research in a variety of products related to the five

goals of the program.These goals span the full range of climate-related issues, including

natural climate conditions and variability; forces that influence climate, including

cycles and processes that affect atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and

aerosols; climate responses; consequences for ecosystems, society, and the economy;

and application of knowledge to decisionmaking.This comprehensive characterization

provides a useful organizing scheme for examining key climate change issues.The

accompanying box identifies the program’s goals and examples of key research focus

areas.

For the first time, the FY 2006 edition of Our Changing Planet provides a budget

cross-cut of the program organized by CCSP goal.This new analysis of the program is

introduced in the next section of this chapter and is contained in the budget tables

appendix.

6

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
7

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural

variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

• Better understand the natural long-term cycles in climate (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation).

• Improve and harness the capability to forecast El Niño and La Niña events and other seasonal-to-interannual cycles of variability.

• Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through improved observations, analyses, and modeling, and determine whether any changes

in their frequency or intensity lie outside the range of natural variability.

• Increase confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed.

• Expand observations and data/information system capabilities.

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

• Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects.

• Monitor recovery of the ozone layer and improve understanding of the interactions among climate change, ozone depletion, and other

atmospheric processes.

• Increase knowledge of the interactions among pollutant emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, climate change, and air quality

management.

• Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover and use, and biological/ecological processes by helping to quantify net emissions of

carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, thereby improving the evaluation of carbon sequestration strategies and alternative

response options.

• Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions and related scenarios for conducting “If..., then...” analyses in cooperation with

CCTP.

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the

future.

• Improve characterization of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans and their interactions through fluxes of energy and materials.

• Improve understanding of key “feedbacks” including changes in the amount and distribution of water vapor, extent of ice and the Earth’s

reflectivity, cloud properties, and biological and ecological systems.

• Increase understanding of the conditions that could give rise to events such as rapid changes in ocean circulation owing to changes in

temperature and salinity gradients.

• Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of climate processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty about

climate sensitivity (i.e., response to radiative forcing), projected climate changes, and other related conditions.

• Improve national capacity to develop and apply climate models.

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human

systems to climate and related global changes.

• Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems and economic sectors to global climate variability and change.

• Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating adaptation options, in cooperation with mission-oriented agencies and other resource

managers.

• Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems (including managed ecosystems such as croplands) and human infrastructure

interact over long periods of time.

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related

to climate variability and change.

• Support informed public discussion of issues of particular importance to U.S. decisions by conducting research and providing scientific

synthesis and assessment products.

• Support adaptive management and planning for resources and physical infrastructure affected by climate variability and change; build

new partnerships with public and private sector entities that can benefit both research and decisions.

• Support policymaking by conducting comparative analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of

response options.

CCSP GOALS AND EXAMPLES OF KEY RESEARCH FOCUS AREAS
CCSP products include synthesis and assessment reports (see chapter on “DecisionSupport Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contributions and

Responses”), as well as numerous scientific deliverables that are described in the

Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Research Program, issued in July 2003.The

research element chapters of this report include updates on the preparation of CCSP

research products, milestones, and activities, with reference to the research focus

areas for each goal.These products and activities integrate research from many

disciplines conducted or supported across the participating agencies.

Integrating research and observational approaches across disciplinary boundaries is

essential for understanding how the Earth system functions and how it will change in

response to future forcing.This is due to the interconnectedness among components

of the Earth system, which often relate to each other through feedback loops.

Interdisciplinary interactions in CCSP are scaled to the nature of the problem. In

some cases, the necessary science may be conducted within a small set of disciplines,

such as those required to improve understanding of cloud microphysics. In other

cases, highly interdisciplinary approaches are required, such as in the case of making

projections about the future state of the Earth system and analyzing their implications.

In the latter example, expertise ranging from the social sciences to atmospheric

dynamics and chemistry to oceanography to the biological sciences is required.

Interdisciplinary research is only one aspect of the integration facilitated by CCSP.

Integration in CCSP also refers to the steps being taken to create more seamless

approaches between the theory, modeling, observations, and applications that are

required to address the multiple scientific challenges being confronted by CCSP.

Finally, integration in CCSP also refers to the enhancement of cooperation across

agencies toward meeting the objectives articulated in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

The accompanying box provides one example of how different research elements may

help address a key uncertainty.This example illustrates some of the key scientific issues

within each of the CCSP research elements that need to be coordinated within the

Global Carbon Cycle research element to improve future projections of atmospheric

carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.

Program Management

As described in the CCSP Strategic Plan, CCSP employs a management approach that

integrates the planning and implementation of individual climate and global change

research programs of the participating Federal agencies and departments to reduce

overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and synthesize products and deliverables

8

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
generated under the auspices of CCSP. Five mechanisms are used to achieve this

management approach:

• Executive Direction – The Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science

and Technology and the CCSP Principals Committee are responsible for overall

priority setting, program direction, management review, and accountability to

deliver program goals.

• Agency Implementation – CCSP participating departments and agencies are

responsible for conducting research, developing and operating observing systems,

and producing CCSP-required products, often in collaboration with interagency

working groups.

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OUR CHANGING PLANET

CCSP research on carbon dioxide (CO2) is coordinated through its Global Carbon Cycle research element.The success of that

research element’s ability to improve projections of future CO2 concentrations depends significantly on inputs from and

coordination with all of the program’s other research elements.This includes consolidating and improving understanding of past

and current CO2 concentrations; past, current, and future sources and magnitudes of emissions and sinks; processes that transport

CO2; processes that remove it from the atmosphere; and integrative modeling of these processes. A few examples are provided

below of the types of scientific research from each CCSP research element that must be advanced and coordinated with the

Global Carbon Cycle research element to improve projections of CO2 concentrations.

• Atmospheric Composition – Although the measurement of the distribution of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere is a major

component of the CCSP Global Carbon Cycle research element, identifying and understanding sources and sinks of these

gases is augmented by information on other atmospheric constituents such as carbon monoxide and other gases that can be

used as tracers of anthropogenic or natural processes.

• Climate Variability and Change – The climate system circulates CO2 from its source regions and distributes it around the

globe. Climate also plays an important role in determining the uptake and release of CO2 by the oceans and ecosystems

through its effects on marine chemistry, photosynthesis, respiration, and decay. Improved estimates of current and projected

climate conditions are essential to projecting future changes in CO2 concentration.

• Global Water Cycle – Precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture play crucial roles in determining terrestrial uptake and

release of CO2 through their influence on vegetation. Runoff transports carbon from the land surface to the oceans.

Understanding the interplay between the water and carbon cycles is vital to projecting future changes in both.

• Land-Cover/Land-Use Change – Some changes in land use (e.g., conversion from timber production to livestock grazing) are

associated with net CO2 emissions. Other changes in land use and management are associated with net CO2 sequestration

(e.g., changing from intensive tillage to no-till agriculture). Improved understanding of how land is used in different locations,

as well as how land uses might change over time, is crucial to estimating current and projecting future emissions as well as

future sequestration opportunities.

• Ecosystems – Widespread but subtle changes in ecosystem distribution and composition may lead to significant changes in the

concentration of atmospheric CO2 because such large amounts of carbon are exchanged in ecosystems through photosynthesis,

respiration, decay, and disturbance. Advances in carbon cycle research depend upon improvements in understanding the

effect of climate on ecosystems, including their projected rates of carbon uptake and release.

• Human Contributions and Responses – The main human processes responsible for changing the concentration of atmospheric

CO2 are fossil-fuel burning, deforestation, land-use change, and cement production.These processes have changed and will

continue to change over time, hence must be considered in estimating current and projecting future emissions, as well as

mitigating future climate change.

INTEGRATING ACROSS RESEARCH ELEMENTS

TO IMPROVE PROJECTIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS
• Interagency Planning and Implementation – Several interagency working groups,

including one for each CCSP research element, are responsible for coordinating

planning and implementation to align agency programs with CCSP priorities.

• External Guidance and Interaction – External advisory groups and organizations,

including the National Academies (see section below), provide external guidance,

oversight, and interactions to ensure scientific excellence, credibility, and utility.

• Program Support – The CCSP Office provides staffing and day-to-day coordination

of CCSP-wide program integration, strategic planning, product development, and

communications.

Integrated Program Analysis

In a highly distributed program such as CCSP, it is often a challenge to develop and

maintain a cohesive perspective, ensuring that key components or interactions of the

integrated Earth system are not overlooked.To help address this challenge, the program

has often turned to the National Academies for guidance.Two of the dozens of reports

that have helped guide the program’s activities are Global Environmental Change:

Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1999) and Climate Change Science:An

Analysis of Some Key Questions (NRC, 2001). CCSP has recently requested that the

National Research Council (NRC) establish a new committee to provide high-level

integrated advice on the evolution of the program.This committee will provide

independent annual reports on different aspects of the program, including:

• Strategic advice on program priorities and implementation strategy in the context

of scientific and societal objectives, including the recommendation of high-priority

program areas not previously supported.

• An evaluation of progress toward meeting the program’s goals.This evaluation will

build on the recommendations of the NRC Committee on Metrics for Global Change

Research, and will offer advice to the program and the Nation on performance

measurement systems (including non-quantitative measures) that can be used for

multi-agency programs like CCSP.

• A strategic review of the program’s decision-support activities in the context of

the program’s goals.The initial review will focus on the program’s synthesis and

assessment products, but also will examine other significant CCSP decision-support

activities, including:

– The adequacy of the overall portfolio of decision-support activities to meet the

program’s goals

– The scientific and technical quality of the program’s decision-support tools and

products

– The potential evolution of the program’s decision-support activities over time to

meet the program’s goals.

10

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
When requested, the new committee will participate in the review of draft prospectuses

for CCSP synthesis and assessment products, and will provide analysis associated with

the interpretation of scientific findings in the products.

CCSP will continue to also rely on other mechanisms for scientific guidance and

advice, including other NRC committees that focus on particular components of the

climate system, scientific advisory groups that support individual agencies, scientific

steering groups organized to coordinate different CCSP research elements, and open

dialog with the domestic and international scientific and user communities interested

in global change issues.

CCSP FY 2006 PRIORITY AREAS AND NEW INITIATIVES

An important step in coordinating the CCSP budget for FY 2006 has been to align the

agency climate programs with the goals and key research focus areas in the CCSP

Strategic Plan, thus helping to ensure consistency.The emphasis is on ensuring

alignment of current funding with a recommended list of priorities and identifying

gaps that may occur, as well as identifying measurable milestones and deliverables that

reflect accountability toward meeting program goals.

The current CCSP program is a high-priority selection of activities that merit continued

support. However, new initiatives are required to move in directions identified in the

CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP must maintain key research activities, while encouraging

innovation in a constrained budget environment.There is a need for continuing

evolution of program priorities and activities through new initiatives, the competitive

grant process within the agencies, and other evolutionary redirection reflecting new

focus areas for high-priority research in climate science.The program aspires to refresh

programs during each budget cycle such that over a 5-year period, approximately onethird of CCSP research activities will support new research directions. Recognizing that

research and monitoring often involve long-term programs, the objective of refreshing

one-third of program activities over a 5-year period represents a desired balance

between program continuity and new program priorities.

CCSP focuses on nine priority themes to accelerate the delivery of critical sciencebased information in support of decisionmaking:

1) Reduce scientific uncertainties associated with aerosol distribution, properties, and

radiative impacts

2) Analyze climate variability, sensitivity, and feedbacks

3) Enhance climate modeling systems

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OUR CHANGING PLANET
4) Reduce scientific uncertainties regarding the water cycle

5) Reduce scientific uncertainties regarding carbon sources and sinks

6) Conduct climate-ecosystems research

7) Improve decision-support capabilities

8) Enhance global climate observations

9) Improve communications between scientists and information users.

There is close alignment between these priority areas and the CCSP research elements

described in the CCSP Strategic Plan and in this document. A number of ongoing

CCSP-supported research projects do not fall within the priority themes identified

above, but are essential for meeting the agreed objectives of the CCSP Strategic Plan

(e.g., long-term monitoring efforts).The following examples highlight some of the

topics included under each of these priority areas:

• Reduce scientific uncertainties associated with aerosol distribution, properties, and

radiative impacts – CCSP will continue to explore the representation of climate

forcing resulting from atmospheric aerosols. Examples of proposed activities

include research on:

– The radiative effects of aerosols and their impacts on climate

– Aerosol-cloud-climate interactions and the relationship between aerosols and

precipitation.

• Analyze climate variability, sensitivity, and feedbacks – CCSP will continue to extend

understanding of climate variability, sensitivity, and feedbacks, including feedbacks

from clouds, water vapor, atmospheric convection, ocean circulation, ice albedo,

and vegetation. Some key activities are research projects that will:

– Extend and improve predictions of the effects of ocean circulation and periodic

natural fluctuations such as El Niño and solar activity on climate variability

– Document and understand the observed trends and variability of climate extremes

– Improve representation of cloud feedback processes in global climate models using

results from satellite and in situ observations and results from process studies.

• Enhance climate modeling systems – The capabilities of climate and atmospheric

composition models will be enhanced with some key efforts, such as:

– Improving model representations of key physical processes including clouds,

aerosols, and precipitation, as well as coupling of atmosphere, ocean, land, and

vegetation processes

– Increasing resolution of climate model simulations

– Improving methods to assimilate observed climate data

– Testing models against observations and defining requirements for observing

systems to support forecasts and improve models.

Many of these modeling efforts will require continuing increases in computer

capacity as well as human capital.

12

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
• Reduce scientific uncertainties regarding the water cycle – CCSP seeks to improve

the understanding of global and regional water cycles through specific activities,

including:

– Research utilizing improved observations and modeling of water cycle processes

leading to closing the water budget on regional and global scales

– Research on the interactions between the atmospheric, continental land surface/

vegetation, oceanic, biogeochemical, and cryospheric processes involving the

water cycle

– Studies of the predictability of extreme events such as extended droughts or wet

spells, and consequences of natural or anthropogenically influenced changes to

the climatic regimes of the water cycle.

• Reduce scientific uncertainties regarding carbon sources and sinks – CCSP seeks to

improve understanding of the global carbon cycle through targeted activities such as:

– Research relating to the North American Carbon Program, which will reduce

the uncertainty in estimates of the North American carbon budget

– Research on terrestrial processes regulating carbon storage, which will improve

estimates of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems

– Conducting studies using model projections to help improve understanding of

the range of future carbon dioxide emissions and scenarios.

• Conduct climate-ecosystems research – Key activities in climate-ecosystem research

include studies of:

– The relationship between observed ecosystem changes and climate change

– Coastal response to sea-level change

– The effects of warming, changes in precipitation, increasing atmospheric carbon

dioxide concentration, and ultraviolet radiation on the structure and functioning

of terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

• Improve decision-support capabilities – CCSP will develop and test resources to

support planning, adaptive management, policymaking, and public discussion of

changes in climate and related systems. A major focus area will be drafting the first

set of CCSP synthesis and assessment products and the initial phases of work on the

remaining products. Specific plans for enhanced decision-support resources include:

– Developing decision-support tools to improve society’s ability to plan and

respond to climate variability and change

– Conducting decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal-tointerannual forecasts and observational data.

• Enhance global climate observations – CCSP will continue to focus on the

development of a comprehensive climate observing system in close collaboration

with the U.S. Group on Earth Observations, which is coordinating the overall

contributions of the United States to the Global Earth Observing System of

Systems (GEOSS). Priority activities will address the development of an integrated

13

OUR CHANGING PLANET
end-to-end observing system designed to minimize data gaps and maximize the

utility of observing networks. Highlighted activities include:

– Providing new paleoclimate products, such as annual- to decadal-scale maps of

Arctic climate variability over the past 2,000 years

– Developing and demonstrating new space-based observing capabilities to meet

climate research requirements

– Enhancing data and information management and distribution systems by

developing and implementing new technologies.

• Improve communications between scientists and information users – CCSP will

improve dialog with stakeholders through workshops, publications, and web sites.

All of the CCSP agencies implement efforts in this area, which include:

– Reporting relevant aspects of scientific findings

– Disseminating results of CCSP activities

– Making scientific information and products easily available in formats suitable

to a diverse set of audiences, policymakers, and technical experts involved in

adaptive management decisions.

DECISION SUPPORT: INFORMATION TO SUPPORT POLICY AND

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING

CCSP sponsors and conducts research that is ultimately related to policy and adaptive

management decisionmaking. CCSP’s decision-support approach is guided by several

general principles, including:

• Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders

• Explicit treatment of uncertainties

• Transparent public review of analysis questions, methods, and draft results

• Evaluation of lessons learned from ongoing and prior decision-support and

assessment activities.

Synthesis and Assessment Products

CCSP is generating synthesis and assessment products to support informed discussion

and decisionmaking on climate variability and change by policymakers, resource

managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. More information about the

products can be obtained from the CCSP web site <www.climatescience.gov>.These

products will integrate research results focused on key issues and related questions

frequently raised by decisionmakers. Current evaluations of the science can be used

for informing public debate, policy development, and adaptive management decisions,

and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program.The

14

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
synthesis and assessment products constitute an important new form of topic-driven

integration of U.S. global change assessment efforts.These CCSP products will be

U.S. Government disseminations, subject to the provisions of the Information Quality

Act (Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act of 2001).

15

OUR CHANGING PLANET

SUMMARY OF SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS

CCSP GOAL 1 Extend knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and

improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling differences.

1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes.

1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.

CCSP GOAL 2 Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with CCTP; review of integrated scenario development

and application.

2.2 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle.

2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.

2.4 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate

change.

CCSP GOAL 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future.

3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis.

3.2 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through CCTP.

3.3 Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes.

3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate.

CCSP GOAL 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to

climate and related global changes.

4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea-level rise.

4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive

resources.

4.3 Analyses of the effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources.

4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

4.5 Analyses of the effects of global change on energy production and use.

4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems.

4.7 Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options.

CCSP GOAL 5 Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to

climate variability and change.

5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions.

5.2 Best-practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

5.3 Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal-to-interannual forecasts and observational data.
The synthesis and assessment products will be generated by researchers in a process

that involves review by experts, public comment from stakeholders and the general

public, and final approval by the departments/agencies involved in CCSP.The program

has prepared and recently released guidelines for the drafting and review process that

are intended to ensure consistency and transparency in preparing the products.The

guidelines were made available for public comment from 29 March to 7 May 2004.

They have been revised extensively in response to these comments as well as advice

from the NRC provided during a meeting of the NRC’s Coordinating Committee on

Global Change held in Washington, DC, on 8-9 April 2004.The final guidelines, the

original draft version of the guidelines, and a collation of comments submitted during

the review period are all available on the CCSP web site (see <www.climatescience.gov/

Library/sap/sap-guidelines.htm>).

The guidelines describe steps to be followed in each of three phases of the preparation

process: developing the prospectus, drafting and revising, and final approval and

publication.This methodology for product development will facilitate involvement of

the research community and user groups in ensuring that the products are focused in

a useful fashion and meet the highest standards of scientific excellence.The guidelines

also encourage transparency by ensuring that public information about the status of

the products will be provided through the Federal Register, on the CCSP web site,

and through other means. If further clarification of specific issues is required, the

NRC will provide advice on an as-needed basis to the lead agency responsible for the

preparation of each product.

Updates on the status of some of the synthesis and assessment products to be generated

in the near term are included in boxes in relevant sections of this report.

CCSP will hold a workshop in November 2005 to facilitate interaction between CCSP

and the government, academic, stakeholder, and international groups participating in

the CCSP process.The 3-day workshop will be held in the Washington, DC, area.The

workshop announcement appears on the CCSP web site at <www.climatescience.gov/

16

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
workshop2005>.The workshop will include presentations and discussion of the initial

set of synthesis and assessment products, as well as other topics related to decision

support.

Commitment to “Lessons Learned” in Decision Support and Assessment

To build on the experiences of earlier assessment activities, CCSP has requested that

the NRC carry out an analysis of global change assessments that have addressed topics

broadly similar to those encompassed by CCSP.The analysis will examine the following

aspects of global change assessments:

• Establishing clear rationales and appropriate institutional structures

• Designing and scheduling assessment activities

• Involving the scientific community and other relevant experts in preparation and

review

• Engaging potential users

• Accurately and effectively communicating scientific knowledge, uncertainty, and

confidence limits

• Improving global change research, including observation, monitoring, and modeling

of past and future changes

• Creating assessment products that are valued by their target audiences.

OUTLINE OF RESEARCH ELEMENT ACTIVITIES

The CCSP participating agencies coordinate scientific research through a set of linked

interdisciplinary research elements and cross-cutting activities that encompass a wide

range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. Chapters 3-15 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan contain more detailed discussions of the research elements as well

as activities that cut across all areas of the program.This report focuses on highlights

of recent research and program plans for FY 2006.

Atmospheric Composition – The composition of the global atmosphere has an influence

on climate and the ozone layer, as well as their relation to air quality, all of which have

implications for ecosystem vitality and human health. CCSP-supported research focuses

on how human activities and natural phenomena affect atmospheric composition, and

how those changes relate to societally important issues such as climate change and ozone

layer depletion. Emphasis is on developing the research and observing framework that

will provide timely scientific information for decisionmakers in the climate arena,

both in the United States and abroad.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 3.

17

OUR CHANGING PLANET
Climate Variability and Change (including Climate Modeling) – Scientists are increasingly

recognizing that short- and long-term climate variability and climate change are

intrinsically linked. CCSP-supported research has made significant advances in

understanding the causes of climate variations. Substantial progress has also been made

in incorporating this new knowledge into frameworks for predicting future climate

variability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and for investigating the effects of

human activities on climate. A new generation of climate models incorporates

improved representations of physical processes, as well as increased resolution, putting

them at the forefront of international research. Despite these improvements, there are

still significant uncertainties associated with certain aspects of climate models.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 4 and 10.

Global Water Cycle – The water cycle plays a critical role in the functioning of the

Earth system. Inadequate understanding of the water cycle is one of the dominant

causes of uncertainty in climate prediction.The water cycle integrates the complex

physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain ecosystems and influence

climate and related global change. New understanding of these processes will be

essential to developing options and responses to the consequences of water cycle

variability and change.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 5.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change – Land use and land cover are linked to climate and

weather in complex ways. Key links include the exchange of greenhouse gases between

the land surface and the atmosphere, the radiation balance of the land surface, the

exchange of sensible heat between the land surface and the atmosphere, and the

roughness of the land surface and its uptake of momentum from the atmosphere.

Because of these strong links, changes in land use and land cover can be important

contributors to climate change and variability.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 6.

Global Carbon Cycle – CCSP-supported research on the global carbon cycle addresses

the scientific questions of how large and variable the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes of

carbon within the Earth system are, and how carbon cycling might change and be

managed in future years, decades, and centuries.This research will help human

societies evaluate their options for managing carbon sources and sinks to achieve an

appropriate balance of risk, cost, and benefit. Successful carbon management strategies

will require solid scientific information about the basic processes of the carbon cycle

and an understanding of its long-term interactions with other components of the

Earth system.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 7.

18

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006
Ecosystems – Global change has the potential to affect the structure and functioning of

ecosystems in complex ways.The role of CCSP-supported ecosystems research is to

increase the knowledge necessary to evaluate the potential effects of global change on

ecosystems in order to help society respond effectively to changes that affect the

goods and services provided by ecosystems. Research focuses on changes in ecosystem

structure and functioning, potential changes in the frequency and intensity of climaterelated disturbances that may have significant consequences for society, and the effects

of ecosystems on climate.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 8.

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contributions

and Responses – Decisionmakers and other interested citizens need reliable science-based

information to make informed judgments regarding policy and actions to address the

risks and opportunities of variability and changes in climate and related systems. A wide

variety of CCSP decision-support resources and related research on human contributions

and responses is targeted at that objective.The outcomes of these activities are intended

to inform public discussion of climate-related issues and scientifically assess and

expand options for mitigation of and adaptation to climate variability and change.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 9 and 11.

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System (including Data Management and

Information) – The Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations has identified

early opportunities for improved observations in disaster warning, global land cover,

sea level, drought, and air quality, and has highlighted enhanced data management as an

overarching need. Such cooperative efforts build upon the current GEOSS, including

several new Earth-observing satellites, suborbital systems, surface networks, reference

sites, and process studies now producing unprecedented high-quality data that have led

to major new insights about the Earth’s climate system.The United States is contributing

to the development and operation of observing systems that will combine the data

streams from both research and operational observing platforms to provide for a

comprehensive measure of climate system variability and climate change processes.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapters 12 and 13.

Communication – CCSP’s member agencies support a broad array of communications

initiatives. CCSP has developed a strategy and implementation plan for helping to

coordinate and facilitate these activities.These efforts are intended to improve public

understanding of climate change research by disseminating the results of CCSP

activities credibly and effectively, and by making CCSP science findings and products

easily available to a diverse set of audiences.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 14.

19

OUR CHANGING PLANET
International Research and Cooperation – CCSP, through its working groups including

the Interagency Working Group on International Research and Cooperation, participates

in and provides input to major international scientific and related organizations on

behalf of the U.S. Government and scientific community. CCSP also provides support

to maintain the central infrastructure of several international research programs and

international activities that complement CCSP and U.S. Government goals in climate

science.

See CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 15.

20

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for FY 2006

1) NRC, 2001: Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Committee on the Science of Climate Change, National Research

Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 42 pp.

2) NRC, 1999: Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade. Committee on Global Change Research, National

Research Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA, 616 pp.

THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM FOR FY 2006

CHAPTER REFERENCES
HIGHLIGHTS OF

RECENT RESEARCH AND

PLANS FOR FY 2006
22

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

1 AtmosphericComposition

Human and ecosystem well-being are related to the composition of the Earth’s

atmosphere. Changes in global atmospheric conditions have caused changes in climate,

air quality, and the Earth’s protective layer of stratospheric ozone. CCSP seeks to create

a research and observation framework for atmospheric composition that provides

information on the interactions among changes in the atmosphere, climate, the

environment, and human health (see Figure 1) needed for sound policy decisions.

Progress in research to date has informed decisions related to laws and international

treaties that protect the national and global environment. In addition, research has

Strategic Research Questions

3.1 What are the climate-relevant chemical, microphysical,

and optical properties, and spatial and temporal

distributions, of human-caused and naturally occurring

aerosols? 

3.2 What are the atmospheric sources and sinks of the

greenhouse gases other than CO2 and the implications

for the Earth’s energy balance?

3.3 What are the effects of regional pollution on the global

atmosphere and the effects of global climate and

chemical change on regional air quality and

atmospheric chemical inputs to ecosystems?

3.4 What are the characteristics of the recovery of the

stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining

abundances of ozone-depleting gases and increasing

abundances of greenhouse gases?

3.5 What are the couplings and feedback mechanisms

among climate change, air pollution, and ozone layer

depletion, and their relationship to the health of

humans and ecosystems?

See Chapter 3 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
23

OUR CHANGING PLANET

revealed linkages between global change and ozone depletion, as well as local, regional,

and global air quality degradation. It has become clear that these issues cannot be

understood separately by scientists or policymakers. Better understanding of these

connections will make possible the development and improvement of predictive models,

and support more effective decisionmaking. CCSP-supported research in atmospheric

composition for FY 2006 will continue to have a high-priority focus on reducing

Figure 1: Chemical and Transport Processes Related to Atmospheric Composition. These processes link the atmosphere with other

components of the Earth system, including the oceans, land, and terrestrial and marine plants and animals. Credit: CCSP Strategic Plan

(illustrated by P. Rekacewicz).

Desert

dust

Agriculture

Biomass

burning

Cattle

Transportation

Transportation

Industry

Cities

Oceans

LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AEROSOLS AND GASES

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

Aircraft emissions

(NOx, Black Carbon, Sulfate)

Natural and

anthropogenic emissions

from the Earth

(CH4, CO, CO2,

VOCs, Sulfate, Black

Carbon, Dust, N2O,

CFCs, NOx, O3)

O3 production O3 production

O3 destruction

STRATOSPHERE

TROPOSPHERE

Halocarbons

CFCs

FREE

TROPOSPHERE

BOUNDARY

LAYER

Water vapor

Forests and other

Ecosystems

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION

CHEMICAL

TRANSFORMATION AND

Sulfur

emissions

from oceans

DEPOSITION

OF

POLLUTANTS

Evaporation

and Convection
scientific uncertainties associated with atmospheric aerosols (particulate matter).

Aerosols are similar to greenhouse gases in that their atmospheric concentrations have

increased greatly since the Industrial Revolution, and because they impose changes on

the energy balance of the planet. Unlike greenhouse gases, however, different aerosols

can have either a warming or a cooling influence on the climate.They also have

environmental effects beyond altering climate, for example affecting regional air

quality as well as human and ecosystem health in both source regions and in regions

distant from the source. Observational advances have yielded important information

on the geographical and vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosols and their diverse

warming and cooling influences on Earth’s radiation budget and their indirect effects

on climate and the hydrological cycle. Nevertheless, significant further study is

required to more fully quantify aerosol evolution, composition, vertical distribution,

and global and regional impacts so that climate and air quality models can be more

effectively evaluated and improved.

During the past 2 decades, scientists have made significant progress in understanding

the causes and implications of variations in atmospheric composition. However, many

questions remain. For example, halogen chemistry is known to be largely responsible

for stratospheric ozone depletion, but the roles of chemistry versus dynamics remain

to be fully quantified.The connection between climate change and ozone chemistry

has been recognized, but uncertainties remain about the effects of climate change on

the timing and extent of ozone recovery. In the troposphere, scientists have observed

varying trends in ozone; however, its spatial evolution and trends remain to be

quantified. Similarly, the spatial and temporal variations in oxidizing capacity – the

atmosphere’s ability to cleanse itself and prevent the buildup of harmful emissions –

require further characterization in

order to quantify the changing

abundances of trace gases and

aerosols. Global observations have

shown the transport of tropospheric

ozone over large (hemispheric)

distances. However, the extent to

which regional pollution can be

attributed to such long-range

transport remains to be quantified. In

the climate area, radiatively important

changes in atmospheric water vapor

have been observed, but these temporal

variations are not sufficiently quantified

so that future changes can be projected.

24

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

The following are selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSP

participating agencies.

Aura Mission Successfully Launched and Operating.7,9The Aura satellite

was launched on 15 July 2004, from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (see

<aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/test/>). Aura is already providing the first-ever daily global

measurements of tropospheric ozone and many other trace gases that affect air quality.

The spacecraft is delivering these results, in addition to observations of the stratosphere,

with unprecedented spatial resolution. Aura’s global view of Earth’s atmospheric

composition provides needed information for research, and for supporting environmental

management and policy development related to issues of local, regional, and global air

quality, climate change, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. Aura carries

four instruments: the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Microwave Limb

Sounder (MLS), the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the

Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). OMI was built by The Netherlands and

Finland in collaboration with NASA. HIRDLS was built by the United Kingdom and

the United States.

Aura will help scientists globally monitor pollution production and transport from

city-to-city, region-to-region, and continent-to continent, on a day-by-day basis, for

the first time. Aura’s view from space enables us to understand the long-range pathways

of pollutants, and early research results using MLS measurements of carbon monoxide

25

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Figure 2: Aura TES Transect of

Atmospheric Pollutants. The

Tropospheric Emission

Spectrometer (TES) on NASA's

EOS Aura satellite is providing new

observations of the vertical

distribution of pollutants, including

ozone, in the lowest part of the

atmosphere. In this vertical slice

taken in early September 2004 over

the Atlantic, plumes of ozone that

formed downwind of forest fires

burning in both South America and

Africa can be seen south of the

equator from just above the surface

to ~18 km. New measurements of

pollutants and greenhouse gases

such as ozone in the troposphere

will allow scientists to estimate the

impact of regional pollution events

on global air quality and climate. 

Credit: Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
have begun to quantify the role of strong convective weather systems and long-range

transport of pollution. Aura measurements also offer new insights into the processes

that control the distribution of the trace gases important to climate change, and how

climate changes influence the recovery of the protective stratospheric ozone layer.

Analyses using measurements by the MLS instrument on Aura gave researchers the

needed data to diagnose with unprecedented detail and spatial coverage polar ozone

loss for the 2004 Antarctic ozone hole.

Aura instruments measure five of the six “criteria pollutants” identified by EPA.

The complexity of pollution transport makes it difficult to quantify the extent to

which human activities affect local air quality. In addition, the presence of the

stratospheric ozone layer between the satellite and the troposphere makes “seeing”

tropospheric ozone very difficult. Aura’s TES uses new technology to see through the

stratospheric ozone layer to measure tropospheric ozone (see Figure 2).

Aura enables new insights into the physical and chemical processes that influence

the stratospheric ozone layer and climate. It is producing the most complete suite of

chemical measurements ever available to understand the ozone layer and its recovery.

These include the first measurements of chemically reactive hydrogen-containing

species involved in ozone destruction, and the first simultaneous measurements of key

forms of chlorine and bromine, which are also important for ozone destruction.

Smoke Inhibition of Cloud Formation.6 Urban air pollution and smoke from

fires can have important effects on the climate system.The net effect of aerosols on

the atmospheric radiation budget and climate is a key uncertainty in attempts to

model and project climate change. Aerosols can counteract regional greenhouse

warming by reflecting solar radiation to space or by enhancing cloud reflectance and

lifetime. However, some aerosols can add to the warming by absorbing sunlight,

which also may have the effect of slowing down the hydrological cycle and reducing

cloud cover.

While most greenhouse gases have long lifetimes and a homogeneous distribution

in the global atmosphere, aerosols, due to their short lifetimes, have a heterogeneous

spatial and temporal distribution.Thus, daily satellite observations and continuous in

situ measurements are needed to observe the emission and transport of dense aerosol

plumes downwind of populated and polluted regions and regions with vegetation

fires.

Remote-sensing observations are providing the first measurements of the effect of

aerosols, including sunlight-absorbing black carbon, or soot, on inhibition of cloud

formation (see Figure 3). Observations by the Moderate-Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua satellite over the Amazon

region during the biomass burning season in 2003 showed that scattered cumulus

cloud cover was reduced from 40% in clean conditions down to 0% in heavy smoke

26

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
conditions.The reduction of clouds due to smoke aerosols leads to less sunlight being

reflected and more sunlight being absorbed by the Earth, resulting in warming.This

effect may be offsetting some of the cooling attributed to sulfate aerosols.

Multi-Platform Studies of Aerosol Properties and Radiative Effects.5

On five occasions spanning the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization

Experiment (ACE-Asia) field campaign in spring 2001, the Multiangle Imaging

Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument on the NASA Terra satellite took data coincident

with high-quality observations by instruments on two or more surface and airborne

platforms.The cases capture a range of clean, polluted, and dusty aerosol conditions.

A wealth of data was collected through the joint support of NSF, NASA, NOAA, and

the Office of Naval Research (ONR). Scientists synthesized the data from over 40

field instruments and satellite observations into layer-by-layer environmental snapshots

27

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Figure 3: Reduction in Amazon Cloud Cover due to Smoke. Aerosols can have both a warming and

cooling influence on global climate through a variety of diverse regional effects. This figure shows the

reduction of cloudiness in a geographical region due to smoke aerosols from biomass burning. The

reduction in cloud cover causes the region to reflect less sunlight, thereby allowing the surface to

become warmer by the increased absorption of direct sunlight. The two satellite images of regions of

the Amazon show marked difference in cloud cover due to the presence of smoke from biomass burning.

The panel to the left without smoke aerosols has 40% cloud cover while the panel to the right with

smoke is virtually cloud free. The partially cloud-covered region reflects an average of 36 Wm-2 of the

incident sunlight and the cloud-free area reflects a smaller 28 Wm-2. The fraction of the sunlight that is

not reflected is absorbed by the atmosphere and surface. These satellite images were acquired by the

MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite on 3 August 2003.

Credit: R. Simmon, J. Allen, and Y. Kaufman, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.

Reduction in Amazon Cloud Cover due to Smoke

36 Wm-2 Reflected 28 Wm-2 25 km Reflected
that summarize what is known about the atmospheric and surface states at key locations

during each event. Aerosols within a few kilometers of the surface were composed

primarily of Asian dust with mixtures of pollution added from Asian and non-Asian

sources. Medium- and coarse-mode particle size distributions varied little among the

events; however, the column aerosol optical depth varied considerably depending on

the near-surface amounts of absorbing aerosols.The consistency of component particle

microphysical properties among the five events, even in this relatively complex

aerosol environment, suggests that global, satellite-derived maps of aerosol optical

depth and aerosol mixture (air-mass type) extent, combined with targeted in situ

component microphysical property measurements, can provide a detailed global picture

of aerosol properties and distributions, enabling studies of aerosol impacts on climate.

Intercontinental Tracking of Pollution and Aerosols. An expanse from the

western United States to the European continent was the setting in summer 2004 for

more than 200 scientists who participated in the largest climate and air quality study

to date, the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and

Transformation (ICARTT; see <www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT>).The research was

aimed at developing a better understanding of the factors that are involved in the

intercontinental transport of pollution and the radiation balance in North America and

the North Atlantic. Several U.S. agencies (with scientists in NOAA and NASA as coleads), academic institutions, and international partners from five other countries used

satellite, aircraft, shipboard, and land-based observations to obtain unprecedented

information about the composition and transformation of air masses as they crossed

the United States, traversed the Atlantic Ocean, and arrived in western Europe (see

28

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Day 4

German Aircraft

ICARTT Observation Regions

Day 1

NOAA Aircraft

Day 2

NOAA Aircraft Day 3

British Aircraft

Figure 4:

ICARTT Observation Regions.

Observation regions used to

study intercontinental transport

and transformation of gases

and aerosol particles during

the Summer 2004 ICARTT

experiment.

Credit: O. Cooper, NOAA/

Aeronomy Laboratory.
Figure 4). Natural and anthropogenic emissions react in the atmosphere to produce

gases and aerosol particles that affect climate.Tracking the sources, atmospheric

transformations, and intercontinental transport of these chemical species by ICARTT

is advancing U.S. and international climate research.

Nighttime Chemistry More of a Factor than Previously Recognized.2

A new technique has enabled measurement of previously hard-to-measure trace gases

in the atmosphere.The observations have opened a new frontier area in studying the

atmospheric chemistry that occurs at night.The approach uses an advanced spectroscopy

technique to measure trace gases in the reactive nitrogen family, some of which occur

primarily at night.The gases play important roles in the chemistry that produces ozone,

a greenhouse gas and pollutant that has both climate and air quality implications. In

atmospheric measurements off the coast of New England, researchers found that the

nighttime chemistry involving nitrogen-containing trace gases can effectively remove

these gases from the atmosphere, thus “short circuit” the chemistry that would have

produced ozone the next day. Related work in 2004 was aimed at developing an

aircraft-ready version of the instrument and applying it in the extensive ICARTT

summer climate research field campaign.

Identifying which Atmospheric Aerosol Particles are Effective “Seeds” for

Cloud Formation.3 Among the least-understood but potentially important processes

in atmospheric composition science is the relationship between small aerosol particles

and ice-cloud formation.The process has important implications for the radiation

balance of the atmosphere. Researchers have developed a novel technique to determine

the chemical composition of those aerosols capable of forming atmospheric ice clouds,

commonly termed “ice nuclei,” both on a particle-by-particle basis and in real time.

This technique was used in 2003 and 2004 field experiments to address the need for

additional and more quantitative information on

the chemical composition of atmospheric ice

nuclei. Among the important results was the

finding that the most efficient ice nuclei are not

ubiquitous sulfate aerosols, but are instead rare

mineral or fly-ash particles, some of

anthropogenic origin. Aerosols rich in organic

material were shown to be inefficient ice nuclei.

These results have contributed to our understanding of the interaction of aerosol

particles with clouds and will provide

valuable information for global climate

models.

29

OUR CHANGING PLANET
Studies of Transcontinental Aerosol Plumes.1,8Transport and transformation

processes in aerosol plumes were studied in field experiments off the east coasts of

Asia (2001) and North America (2002), with the aim of evaluating and refining models

of chemical transport and radiative transfer.This research has shown that dust

transported out of Asia over the Pacific Ocean includes not only dust, but also

anthropogenic gases and particles adsorbed/reacted onto the dust.The transport of

dust-pollution plumes out of Asia and across the Pacific has important implications for

air quality. In addition, recent satellite data suggest that these pollution plumes are

having a regional effect on the Earth’s reflectivity. Results from studies in eastern

North America show that plumes originating in the United States can be as intense as

those downwind of India and northern Asia.The direct radiative effect of the aerosols

in these plumes is thus an important factor in climate. Forthcoming data analyses will

allow researchers to quantify the radiative forcing due to aerosols and to apportion

this forcing based on aerosol composition and, by inference, aerosol source.The

information will provide the scientific basis for informing the development of

effective strategies to reduce emissions and mitigate climate impacts.

Determining Aerosol Properties from Ground-Based Measurements.

Since 1979, satellite retrievals have provided excellent spatial coverage of atmospheric

column ozone, certain characteristics of aerosols, and ultraviolet (UV) radiation.

Satellite data from Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments

(<toms.gsfc.nasa.gov>) have been essential for deriving global trends in UV radiation

levels and resolving critical questions about the impacts of increased UV radiation due

to stratospheric ozone depletion and changes in aerosols and clouds. Continuation and

improvement of the TOMS UV data record is a goal of the new Ozone Monitoring

Instrument launched on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite in 2004.

Currently, ground-based retrievals provide accurate measures of ozone needed for

the validation of satellite data, as well as finer temporal resolution of these quantities

necessary to determine diurnal variations and understand the observed long-term

trends. An excellent example of ground-based support has been provided by the nine

years of radiometer data from the CCSP-sponsored UV-B Monitoring and Research

Program’s (UVMRP) observational network, which has been used to assess the

geographic distribution, trends, and year-to-year variability of UV-B radiation in the

United States (<uvb.nrel.colostate.edu/UVB/home_page.html>).

Since 2002, CCSP’s TOMS, UVMRP, and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)

programs have shared equipment, personnel, and analysis tools among member

agencies such as USDA, NASA, and NOAA to quantify aerosol absorption using

ground-based radiation measurements. Recently, UVMRP data have been used to

extend measurements of aerosol properties into UV wavelengths when combined

with data obtained from AERONET sun photometers (<aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov/>).

30

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
The new analysis techniques applied to the ground-based radiation measurements

provide aerosol scattering and absorption characteristics essential for determining the

amount of UV radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and for understanding the

potential implications for climate change. Determining the spatial and temporal

distribution of aerosol properties is critical for projecting climate change, understanding

tropospheric chemistry, and making accurate satellite measurements of UV radiation,

ozone, and aerosols.

Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances in Russia.4The emissions of six

ozone-depleting substances (ODS) were estimated from measurements taken by scientists

in a 17,000-km journey along the Russian trans-Siberian railway.The measurements

are of global interest because Russian sources of ODS are thought to be a significant

fraction of the total ODS production worldwide, and because estimates of global

emissions are not in good agreement with observed atmospheric abundances over the

last ~10 years.The research, based on a 2001 study, has thus far indicated that the

modern emissions of ODS in Russia are too small to cause the large, contemporary

shortfalls in global emission estimates. A follow-on study in spring 2004 was undertaken

to examine the expected reduction of ODS concentrations since the earlier 2001

study. Preliminary results show that the abundances are indeed smaller, suggesting

that the international ozone layer protection agreements of the Montreal Protocol are

having their intended effect.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2006

CCSP will continue to gather and analyze information through measurement, modeling,

and assessment studies to enhance understanding of atmospheric composition and of

the processes affecting atmospheric chemistry. Key research plans for FY 2006 follow.

Improve Estimates of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing via Satellite Data

Analysis. Much progress has been made in using global observations from space to

assess aerosol radiative forcing, leading to the efforts planned for FY 2006. One

major success is the similarity of several independent estimates of top-of-atmosphere

aerosol direct radiative forcing over the ocean using satellite measurements of reflected

sunlight.This success is traced to improved remote-sensing instrument calibration,

spatial resolution, aerosol optical thickness evaluations, and improved algorithms for

data retrieval in partially cloudy scenes.

Bottom-of-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing is more uncertain, in part due to

poorly constrained measurements of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution.

Satellite observations are not able to differentiate aerosols due to anthropogenic

31

OUR CHANGING PLANET
sources from natural aerosols. However, satellite-retrieved measurements of aerosol

optical thickness, using several methods, are generally greater than model

predictions, suggesting that these measurements have information to contribute to

model improvement.

The lidar instrument aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder

Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite, scheduled for launch in fall 2005, promises

to revolutionize knowledge of aerosol vertical distribution. Efforts are being made to

develop methods of integrating global satellite observations with in situ and surface

data to fill in major gaps in observations of aerosol particle properties such as singlescattering albedo, and to help separate anthropogenic from natural components. Also,

further advances in the near term are expected from multi-angle, UV, and polarizationbased techniques for deriving aerosol optical thickness over land.

These activities will address Question 3.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment – North America

(INTEX-NA).The INTEX-NA is an integrated series of atmospheric measurements

in support of achieving the Aura science goals and validation needs through field

activities to be performed over and around North America. It seeks to understand the

transport and transformation of trace gases and aerosols on transcontinental/

intercontinental scales and their impact on air quality and climate. A particular focus

in this study is to quantify and characterize the inflow and outflow of pollution over

North America.The main constituents of interest are ozone and precursors, aerosols

and precursors, and the long-lived greenhouse gases. INTEX-NA goals are greatly

facilitated and enhanced by a number of concurrent and coordinated national and

international field campaigns and satellite observations. Especially important to the

success of INTEX-NA are carefully conducted coincident validation and science

activities associated with ongoing satellite measurement programs, such as Terra, Aura,

and Envisat. Synthesis of the ensemble of observations from surface, airborne, and

space platforms, with the help of a hierarchy of models, is a necessary and important

step toward achieving science objectives (see <cloud1.arc.nasa.gov/intex-na/>).

These activities will address Questions 3.1 and 3.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Development of an Instrument Package for an Airborne Aerosol

Observatory.To date, observations of in situ aerosol properties have been primarily

limited to intensive field campaigns, which provide a “snapshot” in time and space. A

new instrumentation package for a light airplane will be completed and fielded; this

deployment will permit more extensive in situ observations of the vertical and horizontal

distributions of aerosol chemical, microphysical, and radiative properties over clean and

polluted regions of the United States.The new approach will yield aerosol properties

at differing locations and times, thus leading to a better characterization of aerosol

32

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
radiative properties above the surface, where few systematic measurements have been

taken.They will also help validate satellite observations.

These activities will address Question 3.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Field and Laboratory Studies of Factors that Influence the Radiative Effect

of Aerosols.The optical properties of aerosols are crucial parameters for calculating

their radiative forcing. Laboratory studies will quantify how relative humidity affects

the optical properties of aerosols of different composition. In conjunction with the

laboratory studies, field measurements will examine water uptake by real atmospheric

aerosols.The combination of these two measurements will better quantify how aerosols

grow and how their radiative properties change under differing atmospheric relative

humidity conditions. Incorporation of these real-world data in radiative transfer models,

which calculate the radiative forcing of the climate system by aerosols, will reduce the

uncertainty in the radiative forcing by aerosols.

These activities will address Question 3.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for U.S. Air

Quality. Researchers are conducting scenario-based analyses of the potential

consequences of global change on regional U.S. air quality, focusing on fine particles

and ozone.The climate, emissions, and underlying socioeconomic-based scenarios are

intended to provide plausible projections of future conditions, rather than predictions

of what actually will happen. Research activities focus on developing regional-scale

33

OUR CHANGING PLANET
inputs for air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling

system.The potential impacts of increases in transported pollutants due to increases in

global industrialization, population, and economic activity are also being analyzed.

Research from FY 2004 onward is building toward a 2007 completion of an analysis

of potential changes in U.S. air quality due to climate variability and change, including

direct meteorological impacts on atmospheric chemistry and transport and the effect

of temperature changes on emissions of air pollutants. Further research will result in a

2010 completion of an analysis that incorporates projected emission impacts from

technology, land-use, and demographic changes to construct plausible scenarios of

U.S. air quality for up to 50 years into the future.

These activities will address Question 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Mexico City Campaign in Spring 2006. Megacities are significant sources of

aerosols influencing regional and global scale climate parameters.The Mexico City

Metropolitan Area (MCMA), with 18 million people, is the world’s second largest

megacity after Tokyo.The recent MCMA-2003 field measurement campaign, which

was part of the Integrated Program on Urban, Regional, and Global Air Pollution (see

<www-eaps.mit.edu/megacities>), was designed to improve knowledge of the

chemistry, dispersion, and transport processes of pollutants emitted to the MCMA

atmosphere. In addition to being an example of a megacity that exports aerosols to

the global environment, the Mexico City area provides an opportunity to study

aspects of aerosol life cycles in a unique environment characterized by very high

concentrations of soot, and secondary aerosols and precursors, that can be transported

from the megacity into the surrounding region, thereby affecting regional radiative

balance. DOE plans to conduct a 4-week field campaign during March 2006, using a

G-1 aircraft and two instrumented surface sites.The planned study will examine and

characterize changes in aerosol composition, size distribution, light scattering coefficient,

absorption coefficient, optical depth, soot specific absorption, and radiative fluxes at

the surface in the urban plume.The timing of the field experiment will allow close

collaboration between the DOE Megacity Aerosol Experiment in Mexico City

(MAX-Mex; see <www.asp.bnl.gov/MAX-Mex.html>), the NSF Megacity Impact on

Regional and Global Environments (MIRAGE; see <www.ucar.edu/communications/

quarterly/spring99/MIRAGE.html>) experiment, and the second phase of INTEX-NA

(see <cloud1.arc.nasa.gov/intex-na>).The collaboration between the Mexican-,

DOE-, NSF-, and NASA-supported scientists is part of a larger effort to understand

the air pollution impacts of megacities, and is referred to as the Megacity Initiative:

Local and Global Research Observations.

These activities will address Question 3.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

34

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
35

OUR CHANGING PLANET

1) Bates,T.S., P.K. Quinn, D.J. Coffman, D.S. Covert,T.L. Miller, J.E. Johnson, G.R. Carmichael,

S. A. Guazzotti, D.A. Sodeman, K.A. Prather, M. Rivera, L.M. Russell, and J.T. Merrill, 2004:

Marine boundary layer dust and pollution transport associated with the passage of a frontal system

over eastern Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D19S19. doi:10.1029/2003JD004094.

2) Brown, S.S., J.E. Dibb, H. Stark, M. Aldener, M.Vozella, S.Whitlow, E.J.Williams, B.M. Lerner,

R. Jakoubek, A.M. Middlebrook, J.A. de Gouw, C.Warneke, P.D. Goldan,W.C. Kuster,W.M.

Angevine, D.T. Sueper, P.K. Quinn,T.S. Bates, J.F. Meagher, F.C. Fehsenfeld, and A.R.

Ravishankara, 2004: Nighttime removal of NOx in the summer marine boundary layer. Geophysical

Research Letters, 31, L07108. doi:10.1029/2004GL019412.

3) Cziczo, D.J., P.J. DeMott, S.D. Brooks, A.J. Prenni, D.S.Thomson, D. Baumgardner, J.C.Wilson,

S.M. Kreidenweis, and D.M. Murphy, 2004: Observations of organic species and atmospheric ice

formation. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12116. doi:10.1029/2004GL019822.

4) Hurst, D.F., P.A. Romashkin, J.W. Elkins, E.A. Oberlander, N.F. Elansky, I.B. Belikov, I G.

Granberg, G.S. Golitsyn, A.M. Grisenko, C.A.M. Brenninkmeijer, and P.J. Crutzen, 2004:

Emissions of ozone-depleting substances in Russia during 2001. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109,

D14303. doi:10.1029/2004JD004633.

5) Kahn, R., J. Anderson,T.L. Anderson,T. Bates, F. Brechtel, C.M. Carrico, A. Clarke,

S.J. Doherty, E. Dutton, R. Flagan, R. Frouin, H. Fukushima, B. Holben, S. Howell, B. Huebert,

A. Jefferson, H. Jonsson, O. Kalashnikova, J. Kim, S-W. Kim, P. Kus,W-H. Li, J.M. Livingston,

C. McNaughton, J. Merrill, S. Mukai,T. Murayama,T. Nakajima, P. Quinn, J. Redemann,

M. Rood, P. Russell, I. Sano, B. Schmid, J. Seinfeld, N. Sugimoto, J.Wang, E.J.Welton, J-G.Won,

and S-C.Yoon, 2004: Environmental snapshots from ACE-Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109,

D19S14. doi:10.1029/2003JD004339.

6) Koren, I.,Y.J. Kaufman, Lorraine A. Remer, and J.V. Martins, 2004: Measurement of the effect of

Amazon smoke on inhibition of cloud formation. Science, 303, 1342-1345.

7) Li, Q., J.H. Jiang, D.L.Wu,W.G. Read, N.J. Livesey, J.W.Waters,Y. Zhang, B.Wang, M.J. Filipiak,

C.P. Davis, S.Turquety, S.Wu, R.J. Park, R.M.Yantosca, and D.J. Jacob, 2005: Convective outflow

of South Asian pollution:A global CTM simulation compared with EOS MLS observations.

Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L14826. doi:10.1029/2005GL022762.

8) Quinn, P.K., D.J. Coffman,T.S. Bates, E.J.Welton, D.S. Covert,T.L. Miller, J.E. Johnson, and

J. Anderson, 2004: Aerosol optical properties measured on board the Ronald H. Brown during

ACE-Asia as a function of aerosol chemical composition and source region. Journal of Geophysical

Research, 109, D19S01. doi:10.1029/2003JD004010.

9) Santee, M.L, G.L. Manney, N.J. Livesey, L. Froidevaux, I.A. MacKenzie, H.C. Pumphrey,

W.G. Read, M.J. Schwartz, J.W.Waters, and R.S. Harwood, 2005: Polar processing and

development of the 2004 Antarctic ozone hole: First results from MLS on Aura. Geophysical

Research Letters, 32, L12817. doi:10.1029/2005GL022582.

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CHAPTER REFERENCES
36

2 Climate Variability and Change

CCSP-supported research has made significant advances in understanding the causes

of climate variations. Substantial progress has also been made in incorporating this

new knowledge into frameworks for predicting future climate variability on seasonalto-interannual time scales and for projecting the potential climatic consequences of

human activities.

Scientists are increasingly aware that climate fluctuations occurring at a variety of

time scales are intrinsically linked. For example, future variability of El Niño and its

associated global climatic impacts are likely to depend partly on how average conditions

of the ocean-atmosphere system change with time. A coordinated research strategy is

essential to address scientific questions associated with both short- and long-term

climate variations.The climate variability and change (CVC) research component of

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Strategic Research Questions

4.1 To what extent can uncertainties in model projections

due to climate system feedbacks be reduced?

4.2 How can predictions of climate variability and

projections of climate change be improved, and what

are the limits of their predictability?

4.3 What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate

system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline

circulation, inception of a decades-long mega-drought,

or rapid melting of the major ice sheets?

4.4 How are extreme events, such as droughts, floods,

wildfires, heat waves, and hurricanes, related to climate

variability and change?

4.5 How can information on climate variability and change

be most efficiently developed, integrated with nonclimatic knowledge, and communicated in order to

best serve societal needs?

See Chapter 4 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
37

OUR CHANGING PLANET

the CCSP Strategic Plan provides this strategy. It describes an ambitious, coordinated

set of activities that builds on recent advances and is framed by two broad and important

questions:

• How are climate variables that are important to human and natural systems affected

by changes in the Earth system resulting from natural processes and human activities?

• How can emerging scientific findings on climate variability and change be further

developed and communicated in order to better serve societal needs?

Current CVC research is addressing the five strategic research questions listed at the

beginning of this chapter, which reflect the research approaches, milestones, products,

and payoffs described in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Making progress toward these objectives requires close cooperation among a variety of

disciplines. In some cases, virtually all of the scientific elements encompassed by the

CCSP agencies must come together to jointly address these challenges.The research

highlights presented here provide a sampling of the breadth encompassed by the CVC

component of CCSP over the past year.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent CVC research supported by CCSP participating agencies

follow.

Ancient Climate of the Western United States.1,19 Evidence indicates that the

climate of northern California over the past 3,500 years has been dominated by

El Niño cycles. Paleoclimatologists infer this from the width of annual growth rings of

redwood trees, the contents of packrat middens (debris piles), and the chemistry of

tiny planktonic foraminifera (shelled, single-cell organisms preserved as fossils in the

geologic record). In addition, these scientists concluded that abundance variations in

the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer in marine cores from the western

and northern Gulf of Mexico can serve as an effective proxy for the southwestern

U.S. monsoon on millennial and sub-millennial time scales.The marine record confirms

the presence of a severe multi-century drought centered at approximately 1,600 years

before present, as well as several multi-decadal droughts that have been identified in a

long tree-ring record spanning the past 2,000 years from west-central New Mexico.

The marine record further suggests that the southwest monsoon circulation, thus

summer rainfall, was enhanced in the middle Holocene (approximately 6,980-4,710

years before present).The marine proxy record provides the potential for constructing

a highly resolved, well-dated, and continuous history of the southwest monsoon for
the entire Holocene (approximately the last 10,000 years). Records of U.S. paleoclimate

such as those described above provide measures of natural variability and a context for

attributing the causes of recent climate change.

Borehole Climate Reconstructions Show 500-Year Warming Trend.18

A new analysis indicates that the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere

has increased by 1°C since A.D. 1500.This estimate is somewhat greater than

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions based on most inferences from

tree and ice cores.Vertical temperature profiles obtained from 695 boreholes were

used to make this estimate. Boreholes can be used to infer past temperatures because

temperature changes at the surface affect the subsurface temperature.These subsurface

changes slowly propagate downward, so that temperatures farther underground

correspond to temperatures farther back in time.

North American Drought Atlas Indicates Increased Dryness during the

Medieval Warm Period.6 Analyzing paleoclimate records in the western United

States over the past 1,200 years, scientists found evidence that elevated aridity in the

U.S.West may be a natural response to climate warming.The study revealed that a

400-year-long period of elevated aridity and epic drought occurred in what is now the

western United States during the period A.D. 900-1300.This corresponds broadly to

the so-called “Medieval Warm Period,” a time in which various paleoclimate records

indicate unusual warmth over much of the Northern Hemisphere.The study’s authors

used tree ring records to reconstruct evidence of drought, and also examined a number

of independent drought indicators ranging from charcoal in lake sediments to sand dune

activity.The team then used published climate model studies to explore mechanisms

that link warming with aridity in the western United States.The authors of the new

study postulate that certain mechanisms associated with warming may lead to

increased prevalence of drought in the western interior region of North America. A

CD-ROM summarizing the data, called the North American Drought Atlas, is available

through the web site <www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pdsiyear.html>. It is the first of its

kind, providing a history of drought on this continent.The atlas contains annual maps

of reconstructed droughts over North America, including an animation of those maps

showing aridity over time.

Observed Thinning of West Antarctic Glaciers.22,23 In the wake of the Larsen B

Ice Shelf disintegration in 2002 (see Figure 5), glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula have

thinned and their movement to the Weddell Sea has accelerated. According to another

study conducted by U.S. and Chilean researchers, glaciers in West Antarctica are

shrinking at a rate substantially greater than was observed in the 1990s.They are losing

60% more ice into the Amundsen Sea than they accumulate from inland snowfall.The

38

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
ice loss from the measured glaciers corresponds to an annual sea-level rise of 0.2 mm

(0.008 in), or more than 10% of the total global increase of about 1.8 mm (0.07 in)

per year. Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea appear to be thinning, offering less resistance

to their tributary glaciers.The findings suggest that ice shelf breakup may lead to an

increased rate of sea-level rise.

Projected Heat Wave Intensity, Frequency, and Duration.16 Results under a

“business-as-usual” scenario using a global coupled climate model (the Parallel Climate

Model, PCM) project a geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves.This

model projects that areas in Europe and North America could experience more

intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the second half of the 21st

century. Observations show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North

39

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Figure 5: Retreating Margin

of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

Colored lines show the retreating

margin of the Larsen B ice shelf

from 1998 through 2002. The red

squares indicate glacier velocity

measurement sites where speed

increased significantly in the 12

months following the 2002 ice shelf

breakup—up to a five-fold flux

increase in some places.

Measurements at sites indicated by

the blue squares showed no large

velocity changes. The 1 November

2003 base image is from MODIS

Terra. Credit: T. Scambos, NOAA/

National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Graham Land

Former

Larsen ‘A’

Shelf (Fast Ice)

Remnant

Larsen ‘B’

Shelf

Former

Larsen ‘B’

Shelf (Sea Ice)

Larsen ‘C’ Ice Shelf

Jason Peninsula

Robertson

Island

ã

N

2002

40 km

2000-01

1999

1998
40

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Figure 6: Worst Summer 3-Day Heat Events. The top row shows observed daily minimum temperature maps of the mean annual

warmest 3-day heat waves in the United States (left) and Europe (right) for 1961 to 1990. The middle row shows the ability of the Parallel

Climate Model to simulate these heat waves. The bottom row shows the increased heat wave intensities that are projected by the model

for the United States and Europe in the period 2080 to 2099.

Credit: G.A. Meehl and C. Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Worst Summer 3-Day Heat Events

Simulated Difference of Future minus Present

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

D

aily

Minimum

T

e

m

p

erature (°C)

Simulated (Ensemble Average)

25

20

15

10

30

25

20

15

10

D

aily

Minimum

T

e

m

p

erature (°C)

Observed [1961–1990] United States Europe

25

20

15

10

30

25

20

15

10

D

aily

Minimum

T

e

m

p

erature (°C)
America coincide with specific atmospheric circulation patterns that are projected by

the PCM to be intensified by increases in greenhouse gases (see Figure 6).

Projected Changes in Hurricane Intensity and Rainfall.13 A recent study

makes use of nine independent computer simulations of global climate change

produced by different research institutions from around the world. In all, 1,300

simulated “hurricanes” were generated using a higher resolution version of a current

operational hurricane model forced by 80-year future “business-as-usual” climate

model projections. Results of this study indicate a modeled link between surface

oceanic warming and a change in the intensity of simulated tropical storms. By 2080,

the model-projected changes resulting from approximately doubled carbon dioxide

concentrations could cause an average increase of approximately one-half a category in

intensity (see Figure 7) and an 18% increase in rainfall within 60 miles of the storm’s

center. Better understanding is needed of how natural climate variations influence the

frequency, severity, and favored paths of hurricanes, how the climate system responds

to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and how key physical processes (e.g.,

41

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Figure 7: Projected

Frequency of Intense Hurricanes.

Via a high-resolution version of the

GFDL hurricane prediction system,

the model-projected increase in

frequency of intense hurricanes

can be seen by comparing the

“control” simulation of a climate

model run with present-day levels

of greenhouse gases (yellow circles)

to a simulation corresponding

approximately to the year 2080 in

which carbon dioxide levels were

increased by 1% per year (brown

circles). Category 4 hurricane wind

speeds range from 131 to 155 mph

and Category 5 wind speeds

exceed 155 mph.

Credit: T. Knutson, NOAA/

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Laboratory.

Projected Frequency of Intense Hurricanes

80

60

40

20

0

N

u

m

b

er of M

o

d

ele

d

O

c

c

urre

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s

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120

140

160

Control

High CO2

920

Minimum Central Pressure (mb)

880 900 940 960

CATEGORY 5 CATEGORY 4 CATEGORY 3
convection) are best represented in climate and hurricane models. It is essential that

these advances be accompanied by improved understanding of the factors affecting

societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including levels of coastal development, preparedness, and response systems.

Soot from Fossil Fuels Changes Snow Reflectivity.10 Soot produced as a byproduct of fossil-fuel burning can be carried for hundreds of miles before being

deposited on the ground. Soot that falls on snow increases the snow’s absorption of

solar energy, thereby increasing its melting rate. Exposing bare ground may lead to

further warming since it generally absorbs more solar energy than snow. A new study

indicates that this effect may have contributed to some of the global warming of the

past century, including a portion of the trend toward early springs in the Northern

Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice.

Subpolar North Atlantic Circulation Changes during the 1990s.8The giant

vortex of an ocean current, or gyre, in the northwestern North Atlantic appears to

have slowed. Observations of sea-surface height reveal that significant changes have

occurred over the past decade in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean.

TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data show that the average sea-surface height increased

during the 1990s in this region.The same measurements were used to infer that ocean

surface current velocities likely declined during the 1990s in the subpolar gyre.

Combining the data from earlier satellites, researchers found that this circulation

pattern may have been weakening since at least the late 1970s. Direct observations in

the boundary current of the Labrador Sea support this interpretation.The direct

observations also indicate that the associated deep underwater current is weakening as

well.These changes are potentially significant because the Atlantic Ocean circulation

patterns are responsible for redistributing a substantial portion of Earth’s heat from

low latitudes to high latitudes, making Europe much warmer than it would be without

these currents.

42

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
New Insights into Predictability of El Niño Events.3 Forecasts of El Niño

climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of how accurately

and how far in advance El Niños can be predicted are still a subject of debate. Previous

studies suggest that forecast abilities are largely limited by the effects of high-frequency

atmospheric variations, or by the growth of small initial errors in model simulations.

In a recent study using an advanced coupled ocean-atmosphere model, researchers

made retrospective forecasts of the interannual climate fluctuations in the tropical

Pacific Ocean for the period 1857 to 2003.This is several times longer than any

previous experiment of this kind.The model demonstrated significant skill in predicting

El Niño events back to the 19th century. Furthermore, strong El Niño events had

some predictability up to 2 years in advance.The research suggested that El Niño

events may be more predictable than previously thought. Additionally, the study suggests

that one of the keys to better El Niño predictions is accurate initial conditions (i.e., the

state of the ocean-atmosphere system as determined by observations of ocean

temperatures, sea surface temperature, surface winds, etc., at the beginning of the

model simulation).

Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures Affect Northern Hemisphere Winter.11

Recent research suggests that long-term variability in tropical sea surface temperature

(SST) has had an important effect on regional changes in the winter climate of the

Northern Hemisphere during the last half of the 20th century.The warming of tropical

Indian and western Pacific Ocean surface temperatures since 1950 has been related to

unusual changes in the winter North Atlantic and European climate.The changes are

characterized by a trend in indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the most recurrent

regional pattern of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

The changes also include decadal-scale climate variability over the North Pacific

Ocean and adjacent continents that affects agricultural harvests, water management,

energy supply and demand, and fisheries yields.The link between northern climate

variability and the tropical oceans suggests a potential basis for improving climate

43

OUR CHANGING PLANET
predictions.This work also indicates the potential value of determining the future

course of tropical SST patterns for improving projections of regional climate changes.

Feasibility of Constructing Three-Dimensional Climate Analyses Prior to

1948.25 A recent study has shown, for the first time, that it is possible to produce a

three-dimensional depiction of the atmosphere back through at least the beginning of

the 20th century. A number of such three-dimensional “reanalysis” data sets have been

produced by integrating past observations together within state-of-the art climate

models – but never before 1948, which is when upper-air observations made by

weather balloons became broadly available. Extending the three-dimensional reanalyses

to earlier time periods would significantly increase their potential to support a variety

of applications that to date have not been possible for the first half of the 20th century,

including improving descriptions and understanding of long-term variability in midlatitude storm systems; improving understanding of the atmospheric circulation

associated with extreme events such the 1930s drought in central North America or the

prolonged wet period that led to overestimates of precipitation, hence over-allocation

of water resources, in the Colorado River; and creating a longer period over which to

evaluate climate models driven by changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and solar

activity.The results suggest that reanalysis is feasible extending back as far as the late

19th century and may yield useful analyses from the surface through much of the

lower troposphere at daily time resolution.

Developments in Climate Modeling†

A new generation of climate models has significantly improved representations of

physical processes, as well as increased resolution, putting them at the forefront of

international research. New simulations of climate change during the 20th century

have been completed using these models.Various high-end modeling centers sponsored

by DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF developed and tested the new models. All show

significant improvements compared to their predecessors a decade ago.

Figure 8 shows an example of output from recent simulations using four of the leading

U.S. climate models, compared with satellite-based observations. Although the

detailed evolution of temperature differs in models and observations, both show a

common picture of gradual stratospheric cooling, which is caused by the combined

effects of ozone depletion and increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. Superimposed

44

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

† Refer to the Climate Variability and Change Chapter References box on pages 52 and 53

for citations associated with the models discussed in this subsection, specifically reference

numbers 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 17, 20, 21, 24, and 26.
on this overall cooling are the short-term (1- to 2-year) warming signatures of the

El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions.

U.S. climate modeling capability has advanced significantly in the last 4 years. Output

from the four U.S. models shown in Figure 8 is available for the CCSP synthesis and

assessment products and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Fourth Assessment Report.An extensive database, including the output from these models,

is archived and made accessible to interested climate researchers through an enabling

technology (Earth System Grid; see <www.earthsystemgrid.org>) and the Program for

Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI; see <www-pcmdi.llnl.gov>).

It is anticipated that upcoming analyses of these climate model projections will yield

fresh insights into climate variability and change. A special interagency grants program

was implemented to accelerate analyses of the 20th century historical simulations. A

subset of the data useful for research on the potential effects of climate change on

climate-sensitive resources and systems is being made available through the IPCC

Data Distribution Center (DDC; see <ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/>). A major effort in

45

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Simulated and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes

Year

0

-0.5

-1.0

Te

m

p

erature

A

n

o

m

aly (°C) 0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1980 1985 1995 2000 1990

Observations (UAH)

Observations (RSS)

CCSM3

PCM

GISS EH

GFDL CM 2.1

Figure 8: Simulated and

Observed Stratospheric

Temperature Changes.

Globally averaged temperature

anomalies for the lower

stratosphere simulated by four

global climate models using

estimates of natural and

anthropogenic forcings (in color)

and observational values (in black)

from two different satellite data

sets. Model runs were conducted

by the Parallel Climate Model

(PCM, blue); the Community

Climate System Model, version 3

(CCSM3, green); the Geophysical

Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate

Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM 2.1,

red); and the Goddard Institute for

Space Studies climate model

(GISS EH, purple). Observed

estimates of lower stratospheric

temperature changes are from

channel 4 of the satellite-based

Microwave Sounding Unit—

produced by the University of

Alabama in Huntsville (UAH, solid

black) and Remote Sensing

Systems in Santa Rosa (RSS,

dashed black).

Source: B. Santer, Lawrence

Livermore National Laboratory.
the coming years will be to assess the capabilities of these and related models for

simulating regional climate change. Preliminary indications are that these models

possess some skill at regional scales.

Despite the recent model improvements, there are still significant uncertainties

associated with aspects of climate models. One of these is the representation of clouds,

which remains one of the weakest links in modeling the physical climate system. New

integrated approaches have been developed to address this challenge, taking advantage

of new high-resolution satellite data, field observations, and small-scale cloud models.

Important work in this area is being carried out by the Climate Variability and

Predictability (CLIVAR) program’s Climate Process Teams supported by CCSP.The

Climate Change Prediction Program–Atmospheric Radiation Program Parameterization

Testbed (CAPT; see <www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/model_testbed.php>) project is

also addressing the cloud modeling problem through a novel approach that includes

analyzing the ability of a climate model to accurately simulate weather events, diagnose

the errors, and subsequently improve the model. One example of success in this work

is an improved model representation of the processes that trigger precipitation. An

improved model representation of vertical cloud overlap has been incorporated in the

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Canadian general circulation

models as well as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts numerical

weather forecast model.

As noted elsewhere in this report, improvements are being made in understanding

and modeling other components of the Earth system, including atmospheric chemistry,

ecosystems, and carbon cycling. Efforts are underway to integrate these efforts in

increasingly comprehensive Earth system models.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2006

CCSP will continue to enhance observational and modeling capabilities for improved

understanding, prediction, and assessment of climate variability and change. It will do

so by vigorously pursuing the goals described in the CCSP Strategic Plan.The CVC

activities planned for FY 2006 place particular emphasis on analyzing climate feedbacks

and sensitivity to natural and human-induced forcing, as well as on improving climate

modeling systems.The CVC efforts will continue to place high priority on research

areas that can provide an improved scientific basis for informing critical policy and

resource management decisions (see, for example, the box on CCSP synthesis and

assessment products focused on the physical climate system). Some of the activities

that will address these goals and emphases are described in the following subsections.

46

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
Key Climate Modeling Research Plans for FY 2006

Develop and Utilize Improved Climate Models. A number of modeling-related

payoffs will occur in FY 2006, building on CCSP’s broad range of CVC-related

research activities. Several new climate model versions will be released and several

new model simulations will be performed, providing an unprecedented perspective

on past and future climate change:

• NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is scheduled to release a new

climate model (Model E), containing a number of improved components. It will be

more modular than previous versions, allowing its components to be tested in

other models. NASA will also release a new version of the GEOS atmospheric

climate model (GEOS5).This next-generation climate model will be coupled with

47

OUR CHANGING PLANET

The CCSP Strategic Plan identifies 21 planned synthesis and assessment products describing the current state of knowledge concerning many

different aspects of climate and global change. Examples of three of these, focused on the physical climate system, are outlined below.

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Independently

produced data sets that describe the four-dimensional atmospheric temperature structure from the surface through the lower stratosphere

indicate different temperature trends.These differences are seen in comparisons of separate in situ (surface and weather balloon) data sets, in

comparisons of separate space-based data sets, and in comparisons of individual data sets drawn from the different observational platforms

and different trend analysis teams.While previous efforts have addressed these uncertainties, the complexities of the issue, coupled with

shortcomings of the available observing systems, have left a number of fundamental questions unanswered. Recent work with weather balloon

and satellite data sets has provided new material for analysis and interpretation that will be included in this synthesis and assessment product,

which will describe the trends and uncertainties in the lower atmospheric temperature records.The report will also present recent modeling

results to assess relationships between imposed forcings (natural and human-induced) and simulated effects.The report has been reviewed by

the National Research Council (NRC) and will be disseminated in FY 2006.

Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes.The Arctic is characterized by significant natural variability

but recently has warmed more rapidly than almost any other region of the globe.The recent warming has been accompanied by a decrease in

sea-ice cover and thickness and a decrease in ocean salinity. In addition, the permafrost has melted significantly in recent years.The impacts

on humans and ecosystems associated with these changes were recently reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.This international

study was partially funded by CCSP participating agencies.The Arctic and High Latitude Synthesis and Assessment Product will focus on the

state of knowledge concerning past changes in the physical climate of this region, including how the recent changes compare to the longer

term record and the extent to which they are historically unique.This information is vital since high-latitude regions are projected to

experience the greatest warming in the future.The prospectus is currently being developed for this report.The bulk of the work on this

product will be carried out in FY 2006.

Climate Models and Their Uses and Limitations, including Sensitivities, Feedbacks, and Uncertainty Analysis. Computer

simulation models of the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice system are essential scientific tools for understanding and predicting natural

and human-caused changes in the Earth’s climate.The purpose of this CCSP report is to provide guidance for the appropriate application of

climate models and results of climate model experiments. It will describe the strengths and limitations of climate models at different spatial

and temporal scales. It will focus on natural and human-caused factors influencing climate variability and change during the period 1870 to

2000, and will characterize sources of uncertainties in comprehensive coupled climate models, as well as high-resolution models used to

downscale the coupled model results to regional scales.The prospectus is currently being developed for this report.The bulk of the work on

this product will be carried out in FY 2006.

CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS
the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system for

assimilating meteorological observations into a standard framework.This will

provide an important tool for the research community to assess the model’s ability

to simulate weather events. GEOS5 includes components developed jointly with

the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP, and GFDL.

• Developmental and historical runs will be carried out at GFDL with an Earth system

model that includes interactive chemistry, carbon, and nitrogen cycles. GFDL will

produce climate simulations for research and assessment based on emission scenarios

developed through the Climate Change Technology Program. Likely case studies

will include exploring the range of plausible future environmental consequences of

various emission rates resulting from combinations of different technologies.

• Development of the next-generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM-4)

at NCAR will continue, and will include atmospheric chemistry, coupled

biogeochemistry, and middle atmosphere components, as well as improved physics

and dynamical components. In FY 2006, researchers involved in the CCSM activity

will be undertaking research and model development in areas that are often not

included in climate models – for example, stratosphere-troposphere interactions

(including interactive atmospheric chemistry), biogeochemical feedbacks due to

carbon, and other key components. In addition, a complete suite of CCSM and PCM

ensemble simulations will be performed under various IPCC forcing scenarios.

• Ambitious new approaches are being developed that have the potential to leapfrog

some of the limitations of existing climate modeling methodologies. One approach

is the development of a geodesic climate model that uses a radically new grid for both

the atmosphere and ocean, intended to solve many of the long-known problems with

both latitude-longitude grids and spectral methods.The model also uses “floating”

vertical coordinates for both the atmosphere and ocean. Another novel approach is

a multi-scale modeling framework that embeds cloud-resolving models in climate

models.This addresses one of the most confounding issues in simulating future climate:

accurately representing cloud effects despite the coarse grids of current models.

• A Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Modeling Environment will be implemented

in FY 2006 to provide open access and collaboration among Government agencies

and the research community developing Earth system models and components.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2, and 3 of the CCSP modeling strategy,

Goal 2 of the CCSP decision support strategy,

and Questions 3.5, 4.1.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Archive, Distribute, and Analyze Model Output. Multi-century climate

simulations produced by high-end climate models, both nationally and internationally,

will be archived and distributed by PCMDI.This program will continue to make these

invaluable data sets available to the climate research community and other stakeholders

48

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
through enabling technologies such as the Earth System Grid, which addresses the

formidable challenges associated with analyzing the massive amounts of data produced

by global Earth system models.Through a novel combination of computer technologies,

the Earth System Grid will provide a seamless and powerful environment that facilitates

these analyses intended to improve understanding of models’ strengths, weaknesses,

and opportunities for improvement. Comparisons between the observed and simulated

global and regional climates of the late 19th and 20th centuries will be completed and

published in FY 2006 under the Climate Model Evaluation Project.These diagnostic

analyses are the latest in an ongoing series of model performance assessments that are

providing a valuable yardstick for evaluating the quality of climate projections into the

21st and 22nd centuries.

These activities will address Goals 2 and 3 of the CCSP modeling strategy,

Goal 2 of the CCSP decision support strategy,

and Goals 1, 2, and 4 of the CCSP data management and information strategy.

Key Observations and Process Studies Research Plans for FY 2006

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change. One of the most important

questions in climate science is the extent to which humans have caused and may

continue to cause climate change. Model results are sensitive to uncertainties in the

“forcing factors” that lead to climate change over time. Refined estimates of forcing

variables such as solar output and aerosol concentrations (both volcanic and humaninduced) will be used as inputs for paleoclimate and modern model runs.The results

will be evaluated in FY 2006 for the magnitude and pattern of climate response to

these variables.This effort will provide the most rigorous assessment to date of the

uncertainty in model-derived fingerprints of anthropogenically and naturally forced

climate change. Inter-model differences will be explicitly accounted for in the detection

methodologies to further understand sources of uncertainty in attribution claims.

These activities will address Goal 1 of the CCSP modeling strategy

and Question 4.1.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Improve Understanding of Abrupt Climate Change.The CCSP Strategic Plan

identifies abrupt climate change as a high-priority research topic. Ongoing research

will continue to focus on the mechanisms that may give rise to abrupt climate

changes, their potential predictability, and regional to global impacts. A synthesis

report of modern and paleoclimate observations and modeling results from work of

the Consortium on the Oceans Role in Climate – Abrupt Climate Change Studies

over the past 5 years will be produced, which may be used to help inform future

abrupt climate change research approaches.

These activities will address Questions 4.3.1, 4.3.3, and 4.3.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

49

OUR CHANGING PLANET
Analyze Arctic Processes. Arctic processes are expected to be sensitive to climate

change and are generally expected to play an important role in modulating climate

change.The Mixed-phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) will analyze and report

results of the field experiment conducted on the North Slope of Alaska in fall 2004 to

improve the scientific understanding of the dynamic processes in Arctic clouds, including

cloud microphysical processes and energy transfer through clouds. In addition, a

prototype Arctic observing system is being created for monitoring sea ice, ocean heat

content, freshwater fluxes, and ecosystem indicators.

This activity will address Goal 1 of the CCSP modeling strategy,

Goal 1 of the CCSP observing and monitoring strategy,

and Questions 4.1.1, 4.1.2, and 4.3.7 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Great Lakes Paleoclimatology.The paleoclimatology of the Great Lakes region

between 9,400 and 7,700 calendar years before present will be studied in FY 2006.

Three primary issues will be examined: correlation of Great Lakes low water stands

to other paleoclimatic variables; evaluation of paleoclimate variability using multiproxy data to determine past atmospheric conditions; and reconstruction of the

region’s paleogeography in order to model climatic and hydrologic conditions there.

This study is part of a broader effort within CCSP to develop improved quantitative

paleoclimatic estimates, particularly of variability on short time scales.

This activity will address Questions 4.2.6, 4.3.2, 4.4.1, 4.4.2, and 4.4.3

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Develop and Test New Model Parameterizations. Climate Process and

Modeling Teams are identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan as an important avenue for

improving model representations of key climate system processes. Climate Process

50

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
and Modeling Teams are multi-agency teams of university, laboratory, and modeling

center scientists. In FY 2006 they will test new model representations of clouds, the

flow of water along the ocean bottom, and the mixing of water in the upper ocean by

small-scale circulation features (eddies).The CAPT framework, mentioned previously,

will also make significant contributions to model improvements in FY 2006 by

employing a new testbed for evaluating important aspects of the GFDL AM2

atmospheric model.

These activities will address Goals 1, 2, and 3 of the CCSP modeling strategy

and Questions 4.1.1, 4.1.2, 4.1.6, and 4.2.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Improve Understanding of Atlantic Climate System Processes.The United

States will lead and participate in numerous studies of marine processes that must be

better understood to improve predictions of climate variability. One region of particular

focus for CCSP in FY 2006 is the Atlantic Ocean, where CCSP will play a prominent

role in the CLIVAR Mode Water Dynamic Experiment (CLIMODE), the Tropical

Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE), and the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary

Analyses (AMMA). CLIMODE will investigate how deep subtropical waters of the

North Atlantic Ocean form in a region of strong air-sea heat exchange, south of the

Gulf Stream.This project is a mix of modeling and in situ and satellite-based

observations, which is expected to produce improved model representations of airsea heat exchange.TACE will investigate a region of the Atlantic where many climate

models poorly simulate sea surface temperature.Through a unique combination of

observations and modeling efforts,TACE will attempt to improve understanding of the

coupled atmosphere-ocean processes in this region and improve their representation

in climate models. U.S. involvement in AMMA will focus on climate, weather, and

related aerosol issues associated with African monsoon regions.

These activities will address Goal 1 of the CCSP modeling strategy

and Questions 4.2.1, 4.2.4, and 4.2.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Analyze Warm Season Precipitation in the Southwestern United States.

Research will continue on the processes that influence warm season precipitation over

the southwestern United States and prospects and needs for improving summer rainfall

forecasts in this region.The impacts of data obtained from the 2004 North American

Monsoon Experiment on model analyses will be determined, and an assessment will

be completed on the ability of global and regional models to simulate the 2004 North

American summer monsoon.

This activity will address Questions 4.2.1 and 4.4.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

51

OUR CHANGING PLANET
52

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

1) Barron, J.A., D. Burky, and W.E. Dean, 2005: Paleoceanographic history of the Guaymas Basin,

Gulf of California, over the past 15,000 years. Marine Micropaleonology, 50(3-4), 185-207.

2) Caya, D. and S. Biner, 2004: Internal variability of RCM simulations over an annual cycle. Climate

Dynamics, 22, 33-46.

3) Chen, D., M.A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S.E. Zebiak, and D. Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over

the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-736.

4) Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer,W.B. Norris, and W.D. Braswell, 2003: Error estimates of version

5.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,

20, 613-629.

5) Collins,W.D., C.M. Bitz, M.L. Blackmon, G.B. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang,

S.C. Doney, J.J. Hack,T.B. Henderson, J.T. Kiehl,W.G. Large, D.S. McKenna, B.D. Santer, and

R.D. Smith, 2005:The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3. Journal of Climate (submitted).

6) Cook, E.R., C.W.Woodhouse, C.M. Eakin, D.M. Meko, and D.W. Stahle, 2004: Long-term

aridity changes in the western United States. Science, 306(5698), 1015-1018.

7) Delworth,T.L., A.J. Broccoli, A. Rosati, R.J. Stouffer,V. Balaji, J.A. Beesley,W.F. Cooke,

K.W. Dixon, J. Dunne, K.A. Dunne, J.W. Durachta, K.L. Findell, P. Ginoux, A. Gnanadesikan,

C.T. Gordon, S.M. Griffies, R. Gudgel, M.J. Harrison, I.M. Held, R.S. Hemler, L.W. Horowitz,

S.A. Klein,T.R. Knutson, P.J. Kushner, A.R. Langenhorst, H.-C. Lee, S.-J. Lin, J. Lu,

S.L. Malyshev, P.C.D. Milly,V. Ramaswamy, J. Russell, M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, E. Shevliakova,

J.J. Sirutis, M.J. Spelman,W.F. Stern, M.Winton, A.T.Wittenberg, B.Wyman, F. Zeng, and

R. Zhang, 2005: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models – Part 1: Formulation and

simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate (accepted).

8) Hakkinen, S. and P. Rhines, 2004: Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the

1990s. Science, 304, 555-559.

9) Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G. A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov,

M. Bauer, S. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns,V. Canuto, M. Chandler,Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio,

G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend,T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean,

J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis,T. Novakov,V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz,

D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N.Tausnev, D.Thresher, B.Wielicki,T.Wong,

M.Yao, and S. Zhang, 2005: Efficacy of climate forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110,

D18104. doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.

10) Hansen, J. and L. Nazarenko, 2004: Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proceedings of

the National Academy of Sciences, 101(2), 423-428.

11) Hoerling, M.P., J.W. Hurrell,T. Xu, G.T. Bates, A.S., Phillips, 2004:Twentieth century North

Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate

Dynamics, 23, 391-405.

12) Klein, S.A., R. Pincus, C. Hannay, K.-M. Xu, 2005: How might a statistical cloud scheme be

coupled to a mass-flux convection scheme? Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D15S06.

13) Knutson,T.K. and R.E.Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane

intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective

parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17(18), 3477-3495.

14) Mears, C.A., M.C. Schabel, and F.W.Wentz, 2003: A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2

tropospheric temperature record. Journal of Climate, 16, 3650-3664.

15) Meehl, G.A.,W.M.Washington, B.D. Santer,W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu,

D.M. Lawrence, H.Teng, L.E. Buja, and W.G. Strand, 2005: Climate change in the 20th and 21st

centuries and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. Journal of Climate (accepted).

16) Meehl, G.A. and C.Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in

the 21st century. Science, 305, 994-997.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
53

OUR CHANGING PLANET

17) Pincus, R., C. Hannay, S.A. Klein, K.-M. Xu, R. Hemler, 2005: Overlap assumptions for

assumed probability distribution function cloud schemes in large-scale models. Journal of

Geophysical Research, 110, D15S09.

18) Pollack, H.N. and J.E. Smerdon, 2004: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and

hemispheric averages. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D11106. doi:10.1029/2003JD004163.

19) Poore, R.Z., M.J. Pavich, and H.D. Grissino-Mayer, 2005: Record of North American southwest

monsoon from Gulf of Mexico sediment cores. Geology, 33(3), 209-212.

20) Ramaswamy,V., M.-L. Chanin, J. Angell, J. Barnett, D. Gaffen, M. Gelman, P. Keckhut,

Y. Koshelkov, K. Labitzke, J.-J.R. Lin, A. O’Neill, J. Nash,W. Randel, R. Rood, K. Shine,

M. Shiotani, and R. Swinbank, 2001: Stratospheric temperature trends: Observations and model

simulations. Reviews of Geophysics, 39(1), 71-122.

21) Roads, J.O., 2004: Experimental weekly to seasonal, global to regional U.S. precipitation

forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, 288, 153-169.

22) Scambos,T.A., J.A. Bohlander, C.A. Shuman, and P. Skvarca, 2004: Glacier acceleration and

thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters,

31, L18402. doi:10.1029/2004GL020670.

23) Thomas, R., E. Rignot, G. Casassa, P. Kanagaratnam, C. Acuna,T. Akins, H. Brecher,

E. Frederick, P. Gogineni,W. Krabill, S. Manizade, H. Ramamoorthy, A. Rivera, R. Russell,

J. Sonntag, R. Swift, J.Yungel, and J. Zwally, 2004: Accelerated sea-level rise from West

Antarctica. Science, 306(5694), 255-258.

24) Washington,W.M., J.W.Weatherly, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Semtner Jr.,T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig,

W.G. Strand, J. Arblaster,V.B.Wayland, R. James and Y. Zhang, 2000: Parallel Climate Model

(PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics, 16, 755-774.

25) Whitaker, J.S., G.P. Compo, X.Wei, and T.M. Hamill, 2004: Reanalysis without radiosondes

using ensemble data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 1190-1200.

26) Xie, S., M. Zhang, J.S. Boyle, R.T. Cederwall, G.L. Potter, and W. Lin, 2004: Impact of a revised

convective triggering mechanism on Community Atmosphere Model,Version 2, simulations:

Results from short-range weather forecasts. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D14102.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
54

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

3 Global WaterCycle

The global water cycle plays a critical role in the functioning of the Earth system.

Through complex interactions, the global water cycle integrates the physical, chemical,

and biological processes that sustain ecosystems and influence climate and related

global change. Inadequate understanding of the water cycle is one of the key sources

of uncertainty in climate prediction. Clouds, precipitation, and water vapor produce

feedbacks that alter surface and atmospheric heating and cooling rates, leading to

adjustments in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns – processes current

Strategic Research Questions

5.1 What are the mechanisms and processes responsible

for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle;

are the characteristics of the cycle changing and, if so,

to what extent are human activities responsible for

those changes?

5.2 How do feedback processes control the interactions

between the global water cycle and other parts of the

climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how

are these feedbacks changing over time?

5.3 What are the key uncertainties in seasonal to

interannual predictions and long-term projections of

water cycle variables, and what improvements are

needed in global and regional models to reduce these

uncertainties?

5.4 What are the consequences over a range of space and

time scales of water cycle variability and change for

human societies and ecosystems, and how do they

interact with the Earth system to affect sediment

transport and nutrient and biogeochemical cycles?

5.5 How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision

processes in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies?

See Chapter 5 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
55

OUR CHANGING PLANET

climate models do not adequately represent. Improved understanding of these

processes will be essential to developing options for responding to the consequences

of water cycle variability and change. For these reasons, water cycle research is a highpriority area for near-term activities within CCSP.

Priorities in FY 2006 include the planning of integrated projects to aggressively

accomplish the CCSP Strategic Plan goals for water cycle research.As part of this process,

the CCSP participating agencies involved in the global water cycle research element

are defining a program of activities that will produce the kinds of interdisciplinary

breakthroughs the water cycle science community has identified as essential.These

activities are organized around the need for comprehensive coincident measurements

of all aspects of the water cycle, including atmospheric, surface, and subsurface

observations. Observational data sets that capture key features of the water cycle at

the same place and time promise to improve estimates of key fluxes and stores within

the linked water and energy cycles, which are needed to balance water and energy

budgets. In addition, long-term records of water cycle variables are vital for assessing

changes in the Earth system. Implementation planning includes strategies for assembling

long-term data sets of water cycle variables, including new tools and techniques,

reanalysis of existing records, assimilation of observations and model output, and

establishment of a network of observation stations with new capabilities for collecting

and integrating data for interdisciplinary research. In addition to addressing CCSP

goals, these ongoing and planned observations will support the objectives of the

Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS).

The global water cycle research element is continuing to pursue a set of important,

long-term priorities. For example, insights into the formation and behavior of clouds

and precipitation, including better characterizations of the phase changes of water in

clouds and the phases and onset of precipitation, are emerging from field campaigns

and model studies and will be promoted in continuing activities of the global water

cycle research element. Similarly, the predictability of regional precipitation will be

assessed and better understood by ongoing diagnostic and modeling studies that

identify the connections between regional- and global-scale phenomena, land-surface

conditions (such as soil wetness), and rainstorms. Results from these studies show

promise of leading to earlier (and more accurate) predictions and improved ability to

assess hazards and risks of extremes such as floods and droughts, as well as more

efficient water resource management. In this context, the results of advances in

coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models will be important.

The ultimate goal of this water cycle research is to provide a better foundation for

decisions and investments by policymakers, managers, and individuals. Achieving this
goal requires a program of activities that test predictions and data products in real

decision contexts, demonstrate techniques and their effectiveness to potential users,

and provide tools and strategies to transfer the science from the experimental realm

to operations. Implementation of the CCSP Strategic Plan’s global water cycle research

strategy addresses these issues.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSP participating agencies follow.

These research results address the strategic research questions on the global water

cycle identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Variations of U.S. Drought Occurrence Related to Fluctuations in Sea

Surface Temperatures in the North Atlantic.11 Researchers analyzed precipitation

data to identify spatial and temporal variation of drought occurrence in the conterminous

United States during the 20th century.They found that these variations were largely

(74%) explained by multi-decadal fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the

North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans and by the long-term trend in Northern

Hemisphere temperatures.The results suggest that persistence of the present warm

conditions in the North Atlantic into the next decade may lead to continuation of the

present western drought pattern, which is similar to that of the 1950s, or to development

of a drought pattern similar to that of the 1930s.

North American Climate:Water Cycle and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.2

Two main characteristics distinguish the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from the

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). First, 20th century PDO “events” persisted for

20 to 30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months. Second, the

climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American

sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics – but the opposite is true for

ENSO. Major changes in northeast Pacific marine ecosystems have been correlated

with phase changes in the PDO. Even in the absence of a full theoretical understanding

of the PDO, information about its phase can improve season-to-season and year-to-year

climate forecasts for North America because of its strong tendency for multi-season

and multi-year persistence. For the past several years, North Pacific sea surface

temperature variations have not consistently correlated with either the warm or cool

phases of the PDO pattern (see top panel of Figure 9).The PDO index has been

highly variable.The 1900 to 2004 time series of the PDO index is shown in the

bottom panel of Figure 9. Monthly updates of the PDO index are available at

<jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest>.

56

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
57

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Figure 9: Pacific Decadal Oscillation.(top) Typical wintertime sea surface temperature (colors), sea level pressure (contours), and

surface wind stress (arrows) anomaly patterns during positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as derived

from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite plus other ocean/atmosphere data. Temperature anomalies (colors) are in degrees Celsius.

(bottom) Monthly values for the PDO index, 1900-2004. Credit: S. Hare and N. Mantua, University of Washington.

Positive Phase Negative Phase

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

-0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.8

-4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Monthly PD

O Index Values 4

2

0

-2
Observed and Projected Changes in U.S. Snowpack and Runoff.3,4,6,7,9,14,15

Observations from the past 5 decades indicate that the spring snowpack in the Pacific

Northwest has declined significantly since the mid-20th century. At most of the

mountain locations studied, declines in snow water equivalent (the depth of liquid

water from the melted snow) coincide with significant increases in temperature, and

have occurred despite increases in precipitation.The largest decreases have occurred

at the lowest elevations, suggesting that moderate warming throughout the region

may have raised the elevation of freezing level.These snowpack declines have been

accompanied by an earlier annual peak in river runoff. Researchers have found that,

across several hundred stream gages in mountainous western North America from

New Mexico to Alaska, as well as New England, the snowmelt runoff season has

come earlier in recent decades, with average timing shifts (by several measures) of

1 to 2 weeks earlier.These long-term timing shifts have been most strongly related to

changes in seasonal temperatures during the snowmelt runoff season, and have not been

significantly related to winter and spring precipitation.These results have significant

implications for water resource managers since snowmelt provides much of the water

used during summer for irrigation, energy production, municipal and industrial water

supply, fish and river ecosystem protection, recreation, and other uses.

Additional studies have addressed possible implications of potential future

greenhouse gas-induced climate change on the mountain snowpack and runoff in the

western United States.These studies used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario to drive multiple

simulations of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). In one study, annual snowpack was

projected to be 20 to 70% smaller by the middle of the 21st century when the PCM

output was downscaled (i.e., translated from coarse to fine resolution) with the MM5

regional climate model. Somewhat smaller snowpack reductions were found when the

downscaling was performed using the Regional Spectral Model. Using the same PCM

simulations, other studies suggest that reservoir levels may decline by approximately onethird in the Colorado River Basin by the end of the 21st century and that streamflow

timing in most western North American streams might be roughly a full month earlier.

However, there is significant uncertainty associated with downscaling climate projections

to fine resolutions. Moreover, different results may be obtained if other global climate

models or forcing scenarios are used. For example, the PCM projects less warming

from greenhouse gas increases than most other climate models.

58

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
Projections of Global-Scale Runoff and Soil Moisture Changes.10 Scientists

have also examined the potential for significant global-scale changes in river discharges

and soil wetness over the rest of the 21st century due to greenhouse warming.Their

analysis of model projections, based on a typical greenhouse gas emission scenario,

indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie may increase by

up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and

by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the

Amazon and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers are also projected to increase substantially.

However, the projected changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude

rivers are smaller (on a percentage basis), with both positive and negative signs. For soil

moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many

semi-arid regions of the world, such as southwestern North America, northeastern

China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa.

The projected reduction is particularly large during the dry season (on a percentage

basis). From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, this study projects

soil moisture to generally decrease during the summer growing season but increase in

winter.

North American Monsoon Experiment Field Campaign. Most summer

precipitation around the world is driven by strong solar heating of the land surface.

The consequent large summer land-ocean temperature contrasts lead to summer

monsoon circulations typically characterized by a systematic reversal of wind patterns

and very strong rainfall events.The North American summer monsoon is one major

component of the world’s monsoon systems, the others being the Asian-Australian

monsoon and the African monsoon systems.These systems interact with the El Niño/

La Niña cycles, among others.The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

field campaign was conducted in, over, and around the southwestern United States and

northern Mexico during the summer of 2004 and involved internationally coordinated

research (see <www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/

monsoon/NAME.html>). NAME aims at determining the

sources and limits of predictability of summer precipitation

from the monsoon over North America.The field campaign

was motivated by previous and ongoing diagnostic and modeling

studies, which identified processes contributing to the

variability of monsoonal circulation, convection, and

precipitation.The field experiment significantly enhanced the

spatial and temporal resolution of observations of those

processes available for the monsoon region.The results of

NAME, currently being analyzed, will be used to attempt to

improve warm-season weather predictions in 2006 and beyond.

59

OUR CHANGING PLANET
Madden-Julian Oscillation and Floods.1 Recent studies have revealed

relationships between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and precipitation that may

provide an important key to prediction of flooding over southwest Asia.The MJO

(also referred to as the 30-60 day or 40-50 day oscillation) is thought to be one of the

main intra-seasonal fluctuations that explain weather variations in the tropics.The

MJO is associated with variations in surface and upper-level wind fields, sea surface

temperature, and cloudiness/rainfall. It affects the entire tropical troposphere, but is

most evident in the Indian and western Pacific oceans with an active (wet) phase and an

inactive (dry) phase.The MJO is strongest in the eastern Indian Ocean, when its wind

anomalies extend over southwest Asia. A 22-year record of precipitation observations

over southwest Asia shows that there is a 55% increase in daily precipitation when the

MJO is in its active phase.The effect of the MJO is quite consistent from year to year,

with more rain attributed to the MJO as it circumnavigates the globe in each of the

22 years in the record.These findings indicate that the evolutions of storms over

southwest Asia and resultant precipitation could conceivably be forecast with some

skill for 3-week periods.

Glacier Mass-Balance Records Show a Retreating Trend in Alaska Glaciers.5

CCSP-supported scientists continue to monitor long-term glacier mass balance at

three benchmark glaciers in Washington and Alaska, each in a different climate

regime.Winter accumulation, summer ablation, and net mass balance are measured

using accepted glaciological techniques.The data collected are posted on the Internet

(see <ak.water.usgs.gov/glaciology>).The mass balance records extend for 50 years

at South Cascade Glacier,Washington,

and 38 years at Gulkana and Wolverine

Glaciers, both in Alaska.These records

are among the longest in North America.

The data are used to understand glacierrelated hydrologic processes and to

improve the quantitative prediction of

water resources, glacier-related hazards,

and the consequences of climate

change. Consistent with the observed

warming, for the past quarter century

these glaciers have experienced almost

continuous negative net balances,

indicative of the glacier retreat

observed in the glaciated regions of the

Pacific Northwest and Alaska (see

Figure 10).

60

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
New North American Assimilation System and Reanalysis.13 Knowledge of

the land surface states (e.g., soil moisture, snowpack, evaporation) and the ability to

model these states have been major focus areas of CCSP-supported research.The

North American Land Data Assimilation System project has created a 1/8-degree

modeling system over the continental United States that provides this important land

surface information for the purpose of initializing weather and climate models (see

<ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/LDAS8th/LDASdocs/Mitchell2003JD003823.pdf>).

North American Regional Reanalysis.12 A 25-year North American Regional

Reanalysis (NARR; see <wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rreanl>) of historical

climate data, covering the period October 1978 through December 2003, was

completed in 2004.The regional reanalysis provides a wide range of high-resolution,

daily water cycle analysis products such as precipitation, relative humidity, soil moisture,

and snow data fields for the 25-year period at 32-km grid scale over North America.

The NARR represents advances in regional models and data assimilation that include

assimilation of precipitation, direct assimilation of radiances, additional data, and

recent developments in modeling, particularly land-surface components.The NARR is

a major improvement in both resolution and accuracy over previous reanalysis products.

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment – Coordinated Enhanced

Observing Period.With support from CCSP agencies, the international Global

Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) has coordinated modeling activities and

production of new data sets to aid water cycle research. A major GEWEX initiative, the

Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP; see <www.gewex.org/ceop.htm>),

has brought together global observations and model outputs in a consistent framework

61

OUR CHANGING PLANET

South Cascade Glacier, Washington

1928 2000

Figure 10: Changing

Glacier Mass Balance.

Mid-latitude glaciers respond

quickly and dramatically to

fluctuations in climate. Aerial

views of South Cascade

Glacier, Washington, in 1928

and 2000, illustrate the

magnitude of glacier wastage

(negative mass balance) and

the terminus retreat that has

been characteristic of glaciers

in the region. Over this time

span, the glacier has lost half its

volume and retreated 1.5 km.

Credit: USGS.
and provided them to researchers through the Internet.These integrated data sets

have enabled new efforts to determine whether the water cycle is accelerating as a

result of global change. CEOP is an example of the type of international coordination

needed to support the Global Earth Observing System of Systems.

Coupling between Soil Moisture and Seasonal Precipitation.8 A project

supported by CCSP and performed by the GEWEX Global Land/Atmosphere System

Study compared climate models to determine the influence of soil moisture on the

ability of the model to predict seasonal precipitation and temperature. Although the

models differed in the strength of the simulated coupling between soil moisture and

precipitation, they were consistent in identifying areas around the globe where

knowledge of soil moisture conditions led to enhanced seasonal climate prediction

capability (see Figure 11).

International Cooperation on Integrated Global Water Cycle Observations.

A CCSP-supported report, The Integrated Global Water Cycle Observations Theme (see

<ioc.unesco.org/igospartners/Water.htm>), was developed under the framework of

62

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Land-Atmosphere Coupling Strength

60N

30N

EQ

60S

120W 60W 0 60E 120E

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.30 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12

Figure 11: “Hot Spots”

where Soil Moisture Changes

can Affect Rainfall. The red areas

are “hot spots” where soil moisture

changes can affect rainfall,

according to a multi-model study.

The bars in the insets show the

individual results for 12 climate

models, averaged over the 

indicated regions. According to the

insets, the models clearly do not

show perfect agreement in the

“strength” of the hot spots. Still,

many independent models place

the hot spots in the same place.

The results pertain to Northern

Hemisphere summer months June,

July, and August. Red areas show

the strongest connection between

soil moisture and rainfall. The units

for the insets are the same as

those for the color bar.

Credit: The GLACE Team

(Koster et al., 2004).
the Integrated Global Observing Strategy Partnership and issued in 2004.The report

provides a framework for guiding decisions on priorities and strategies for water cycle

observations. It also promotes strategies to facilitate the acquisition, processing, and

distribution of data products needed for effective management of the world’s water

resources.The report was developed following extensive international review and

workshops held in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and was co-funded by CCSP

and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2006

In FY 2006, priorities of the CCSP global water cycle research element include

continuing U.S. and global observations; field campaigns and experiments;

improvements to data integration and analysis systems; diagnostic and prediction

model development; and applications to decision-support systems. Several promising

results from prior research will be further explored with an aim to provide this

knowledge to applications that provide national and global societal benefits.

Concurrently, a cohesive research strategy will be implemented to improve the current

deficiencies in understanding that exist regarding many aspects of the regional and

global water cycle.The program outlined for FY 2006 will lead to near-term

improvements in planning, decisionmaking, and resource management activities – a

major aim of the program. However, significant unresolved research issues will

require longer term effort.To address such research and applications needs, several

key initiatives will be launched in FY 2006.

National Hydrological Observatories: Implementing the First of a

Network of Comprehensive Observatories for Watershed Data.The

Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrological Science, Inc., is

initiating, with assistance from CCSP agencies, planning for the development of basinscale observatories to support research in hydrology and related sciences.The longterm goal is to establish an integrated network of “hydrological observatories” to bring

together hydrological, limnological, meteorological, chemical, ecological, microbial,

and other data on soils, landscapes, waterways, wetlands, and lakes, to support

researchers probing the integration of watershed processes at scales of thousands of

square kilometers.The initial goal is to place watershed data being collected by a

wide variety of organizations into a common framework for easy access by all for

interdisciplinary research and water resources management. Gaps in current research and

operational observing systems will be filled by adding complementary measurements

so as to better quantify atmospheric, surface, and subsurface processes in the water

cycle, including transport and transformation of chemical species. Progress is being

63

OUR CHANGING PLANET
made toward establishing supporting infrastructure and awards will be made in FY

2006 for testing major issues in observatory design.

These activities will address Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment: Improving

Understanding of Key Water Cycle Processes. Cirrus clouds are ubiquitous in

the tropics and have a large impact on their environment, but the properties of these

clouds are poorly understood. A measurement campaign focusing on cirrus clouds is

being planned for the region around the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in

Darwin, Australia, during January-February 2006.The Tropical Warm Pool

International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) will employ multiple research aircraft,

launch balloon-borne meteorological sensors from an array of sites, and extend the

spatial sampling of the Darwin region with additional surface sites (see Figure 12).

TWP-ICE will provide a picture of cloud conditions with unprecedented detail for

the deep tropics.The data set produced through this effort will be used to evaluate how

existing models simulate cloud properties and to improve those models.TWP-ICE has

been developed through collaboration among a variety of institutions from the United

States (including DOE and NASA), Australia, Europe, Canada, and Japan.

These activities will address Questions 5.2 and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Tracking Changes in National and Global Water Resources. Promising

preliminary research results from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment

(GRACE) satellite, a joint U.S.-Germany mission, will be expanded in 2006 to

quantify changes in regional water storage (reservoirs and groundwater). In 2004,

seasonal and year-to-year changes in water storage at subcontinental scales were

identified from GRACE observations, and agreed with best estimates from Land Data

Assimilation Systems. GRACE observations, together with advanced gravity anomaly

models, provide a powerful new tool to track surface water fluxes from one place to

another, and to assess how these fluxes influence climate, weather, and water resource

availability. In the past, the measurement of water in large, inaccessible river basins has

not been reliable and fluxes in underground aquifers and deep ocean currents have

been nearly impossible to measure. Observations of regional mass variations of water

on land and in the oceans will assist in interpreting annual signals in long-term sealevel change that have become an important indicator of climate change. Similarly,

changes in regional groundwater will provide critical observational “closure” constraints

to hydrological models used for water resources management.

These activities will address Questions 5.1, 5.3, 5.4, and 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

64

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
Synchronized Measurements to Address Key Uncertainties Associated

with the Water and Energy Cycles.With the launch of CALIPSO, CloudSat, and

PARASOL, the satellite constellation designated the “A-Train” – composed of those

satellites and Aqua and Aura (see Figure 28 in the “Observing and Monitoring the

Climate System” chapter later in this volume) – will provide an unprecedented

opportunity through FY 2008 for the Earth science community to utilize satellite data

to evaluate and improve components of Earth system models.These different

instrument platforms, flying in the same orbit minutes apart, will provide multi-platform

observations of water and energy cycle processes.The A-Train will be a demonstration

of the technological capability to obtain nearly co-located, time-synchronous

measurements from a suite of satellites.Teams of scientists have been assembled to

take advantage of this unique opportunity. Some of the specific issues that will be

addressed are cloud formation/dissipation processes, aerosol-cloud interactions, and

cloud-radiation feedback, which are major sources of uncertainty in climate models.

These activities will address Goal 1 of the CCSP modeling strategy

and Questions 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

65

OUR CHANGING PLANET

40 60 80 100 120

Range (km)

20

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

16

18

Height (km)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

C-Pol Reflectivity 6:18 Φ = 305 Figure 12: Build-Up to the Wet Phase of

the Australian Monsoon. During the wet

phase of the Australia monsoon (Dec-Feb) and

the build-up to the wet phase (Nov), convection

is a common occurrence at Darwin. This

image from the centimeter-wavelength radar

operated at Darwin illustrates the intense

convection that typifies the monsoon build-up

period. Such convection may exhibit strong

updrafts (reds and yellows in the image)

reaching altitudes of 18 km or greater.

Convection during the active wet phase of the

monsoon exhibits weaker updrafts more

representative of oceanic conditions. During

TWP-ICE both types of convection will be

encountered, providing a means of relating

cloud properties to convective strength.

Credit: P. May, Australian Bureau of

Meteorology Research Centre.
Monitoring Global Tropical Precipitation:The Heat Engine that Drives

Global Atmospheric Circulation.The Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission

(TRMM) satellite will be extended well beyond its design life of 3 years to 2009,

thereby providing continued active radar coverage of global tropical rainfall and cloud

structure.TRMM, launched in 1997 with the first space-based precipitation radar

together with a co-located TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), among other instruments,

has worked flawlessly and provided substantially improved data about cloud structure

and new processing algorithms for passive microwave instruments aboard other satellites

[e.g., the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)]. Progressively improved

algorithms derived from TRMM research will continue to be used to reprocess SSM/I

data from previous (20+) years to obtain more accurate estimates of global tropical

precipitation climatology and time series of tropical precipitation variability and

change. Also being explored are requirements for a follow-on “operational” satellite

system to provide data comparable to TRMM and to enable the optimal use of data

from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). GPM represents the next-generation

follow-on research spacecraft to TRMM, planned for launch by the end of the decade.

These activities will address Questions 5.1 and 5.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Observing and Resolving Soil Moisture: A Critical Uncertainty in

Earth/Climate Models and Operational Applications. A new thrust in the

Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP-2) under the rubric of the international

GEWEX Modeling and Prediction Panel is to better link land-surface modeling with

remote-sensing applications.This will be done by expanding the validation and

assimilation capabilities of current Land Surface Schemes (LSS) at a spatial resolution of

about 1 degree (~100 km) beyond the few years where in situ data are readily available.

LSS will continue to be examined for their ability to simulate brightness temperature,

assessed by comparing airborne measurements from several large-scale campaigns

held during GSWP-2. Such an assessment is a prototype of LSS validation on a global

scale, which is necessary for taking advantage of future satellite-based L-band

radiometry from NASA’s HYDROS satellite mission, the European Space Agency’s

Soil Moisture-Ocean Salinity mission, and the NASA Aquarius (ocean salinity/soil

moisture) mission. HYDROS offers the unique advantage of carrying both active and

passive microwave instruments.

These activities will address Questions 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Synergistic Observations, Research, and Modeling: Bedrock to Boundary

Layer and Beyond. One of the roadblocks to enhancing water cycle understanding

is the lack of comprehensive coincident measurements of all aspects of the continental

water cycle.This includes observations of subsurface hydrology (groundwater to the

bedrock, soil moisture, and chemistry), the land surface (e.g., runoff, vegetation and

evapotranspiration, surface exchange fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture, and

66

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
radiation balance), the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor, winds, thermodynamics, cloud

radiative forcing, and precipitation), and water consumption, distribution, and quality,

among others. In FY 2006, the Science Steering Group for the CCSP global water

cycle research element and the broader science community will develop an “integrating”

strategic implementation plan to address these issues.The plan will be one of the central

features of CCSP’s implementation of the water cycle science component, and will

outline a strategy for achieving near-term priorities while laying the groundwork for

targeting longer term goals. Observing systems will be designed within the construct

of a seamless modeling framework, and associated data and information synthesis and

management systems.The outcome of this research, spanning the next decade, will be

an essential part of an integrated end-to-end approach to help apply operational and

research-based water cycle observations, model predictions, and data assimilation products

to decision-support tools that are developed and used by the operational applications

community, including planners and managers of natural and economic resources.

These activities will address Questions 5.1 through 5.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

67

OUR CHANGING PLANET

1) Barlow, M., M.Wheeler, B. Lyon, and H. Cullen, 2005: Modulation of daily precipitation over Southwest Asia by the Madden-Julian

Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review (accepted).

2) Bond, N.A., J.E. Overland, M. Spillane, and P. Stabeno, 2003: Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophysical Research

Letters, 30, 2183. doi:10.1029/2003GL018597.

3) Christensen, N.S., A.W.Wood, N.Voisin, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.N. Palmer, 2004:The effects of climate change on the hydrology

and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 337-363.

4) Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan , M.K. Meyer , and A.E. Jeton , 2004:. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and

changes in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change, 62, 283-317.

5) Fountain, A.G., R.M. Krimmel, and D.C.Trabant, 1997: A Strategy for Monitoring Glaciers. U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 1132, 19 pp.

Available at <ak.water.usgs.gov/glaciology/reports/circular1132>.

6) Hodgkins, G.A., R.W. Dudley, and T.G. Huntington, 2003: Changes in the timing of high river flows in New England over the 20th

Century. Journal of Hydrology, 278, 244-252.

7) Knowles, N. and D.R. Cayan, 2004. Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco estuary and

watershed. Climatic Change, 62, 319-336.

8) Koster, R.D., P.A. Dirmeyer, Z. Guo, G. Bonan, E. Chan, P. Cox, C.T. Gordon, S. Kanae, E. Kowalczyk, D. Lawrence, P. Liu,

C.-H. Lu, S. Malyshev, B. McAvaney, K. Mitchell, D. Mocko,T. Oki, K. Oleson, A. Pitman,Y.C. Sud, C.M.Taylor, D.Verseghy,

R.Vasic,Y. Xue, and T.Yamada, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138-1140.

9) Leung, L.R.,Y. Qian, X. Bian,W.M.Washington, J. Han, and J.O. Roads, 2004: Mid-century ensemble regional climate change

scenarios for the western United States. Climatic Change, 62, 75-113.

10) Manabe, S., P.C.D. Milly, and R.Wetherald, 2004: Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global

warming. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49(4), 625-642.

11) McCabe, G.J., M.A. Palecki, and J.L. Betancourt, 2004. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in

the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(12), 4136-4141.

12) Mesinger, F., et al., 2005: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (submitted).

13) Mitchell, K.E., et al., 2004:The multi-institution Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and

partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D07S90.

doi:10.1029/2003JD003823.

14) Mote, P.W.,A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin

of the American Meteorological Society, 86(1), 39-49.

15) Stewart, I.T., D.R. Cayan, and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a

“Business as Usual” climate change scenario. Climatic Change, 62, 217-232.

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE CHAPTER REFERENCES
68

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

4 Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

Land use and land cover are linked to climate and weather in complex ways. Key links

between land cover and climate include the exchange of greenhouse gases between

the land surface and the atmosphere, the radiation balance (both solar and long-wave)

of the land surface, the exchange of sensible heat between the land surface and the

atmosphere, and the roughness of the land surface and its uptake of momentum from

the atmosphere.

Because of these strong links between land cover and climate, changes in land use and

land cover are important contributors to climate change and variability.

Reconstructions of past land-cover changes and projections of possible future landcover changes are needed to understand past climate changes and to project possible

future climate changes. Land-cover characteristics are important inputs to climate

models. In addition, changes in land use and land cover affect ecosystems, biodiversity,

Strategic Research Questions

6.1 What tools or methods are needed to better

characterize historic and current land-use and landcover attributes and dynamics?

6.2 What are the primary drivers of land-use and landcover change?

6.3 What will land-use and land-cover patterns and

characteristics be 5 to 50 years into the future?

6.4 How do climate variability and change affect land use

and land cover, and what are the potential feedbacks of

changes in land use and land cover to climate?

6.5 What are the environmental, social, economic, and

human health consequences of current and potential

land-use and land-cover change over the next 5 to 50

years?

See Chapter 6 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
69

OUR CHANGING PLANET

and the many important goods and services they provide to society, including carbon

sequestration. One focus of FY 2006 land-use and land-cover change (LULCC)

projects will be to provide large-scale biomass estimates and forest cover assessments

for carbon models.

Determining the effects of land-use and land-cover change on the Earth system

depends on an understanding of past land-use practices, current land-use and landcover patterns, and projections of future land use and cover, as affected by human

activities, population size and distribution, economic development, technology, and

other factors. Land-use models and innovative methods for projecting land-use and

land-cover patterns and characteristics into the future (5 to 50 years) will be a subject

for a special overview workshop at the National Academy of Sciences.

The combination of climate and land-use change affects the Earth’s environment in

more significant ways than either acting alone.While land-use change is likely a driver

of environmental and climatic changes, a changing climate can, in turn, affect land use

and land cover. Climate variability alters land-use practices differently in different

parts of the world, highlighting differences in regional and national vulnerability and

resilience. In FY 2006, U.S. LULCC research will examine such regional heterogeneities

both in the United States and internationally.

The interaction between land use and climate variability is poorly understood and

will require the development of models linking the geophysics of climate with the

socioeconomic drivers of land use. Providing a scientific understanding of the process of

land-use change, the impacts of different land-use decisions, and the ways that decisions

are affected by a changing climate and increasing climate variability are priority areas

for research. In addition to being a driver of Earth system processes affecting climate,

the carbon cycle, and ecosystems, land-use and land-cover change are global changes

in their own right, requiring a separate research foundation. CCSP research in this

area in FY 2006 will include a focus on improving multi-sector models for land-use

change, and on improving models that relate climate change, population density, and

land use and cover to regional water availability.
HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

Selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSP participating agencies follow.

Projecting Area Changes for Major Forest Types.1 Modeling the dynamics of

forest cover changes is part of the periodic national forest resource assessments by the

USDA Forest Service and cooperators. One of the largest changes in U.S. forest type

areas over the last half-century has involved pine forest types in the South.The area of

planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands.

Baseline projections indicate a net increase of about 5.6 million ha (about 13.8 million

acres), which is approximately a 52% increase in planted pine area in the South over

the next 50 years.This forest investment is expected to result in a significant increase

in sequestered carbon per acre.With increasing amounts of timber harvests arising

from plantations, this will also affect carbon storage in wood products. U.S. forests

elsewhere will also continue to change in structure and composition, as the area of

timberland with trees older than 150 years on National Forest lands is projected to

more than double by 2050. Many of those forests are in the Pacific Northwest and can

lead to a notable increase in sequestered forest carbon.

Population, Land Use, and Climate Change Impacts on Regional and

Local Water Supply and Demand.12 Forest Service scientists assessed the effects

of model-projected climate change scenarios coupled with potential changes in

population, hydrology, and land use/land cover to examine future water supply and

demand across the southern United States. Long-term average, maximum, and

minimum water yield and demand were examined.Water yield reflects the combined

influences of vegetation, soils, precipitation, temperature, and evaporation.The study

found that current water yield exceeds water demand by more than 100 times during

an average precipitation year in the region. However, some local areas are currently

experiencing significant water shortages due to high population density, water

demand, and/or periodic drought. Overall, the climate projections suggest that total

water yield will increase in the region over the next 20 years. Local water shortages

are projected to increase and expand in area during the next 20 years, with population

change having the greatest impact on local water supply stress. Projected changes in

climate and vegetative cover will have larger region-wide impacts on water yield, but

relatively little impact on local changes in water supply stress compared to population

change (see Figure 13).

Lowland Forest Loss in Protected Areas of Indonesian Borneo.3 Analysis of

lowland forest loss in protected areas of Indonesian Borneo (Kalimantan) demonstrates

progress toward understanding how complex histories of land use, land cover, policy,

70

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
and sudden economic change can result in rapid change in land cover.These findings

will contribute to improved ecosystem modeling. Satellite remote sensing of landcover change between 1985 and 2001 reveals rapid and pervasive deforestation of

lowland forests within protected areas: a 56% loss (>29,000 km2) was documented

across Kalimantan. Socioeconomic and political drivers of these land-use changes were

examined for the period 1970 to 2002.The collapse of logging concession timber

stocks through overexploitation, coupled with high demand for timber by wood-based

industries and policies that promote oil palm plantations, drive both illegal logging

and forest clearing. In combination, these land-use changes result in lowland forest

fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat (see Figure 14).

Results of this research are being applied to verify forest inventories, update

estimates of tropical carbon emissions dynamics, and assess effects on biodiversity. In

Indonesia, these products are being used by nongovernmental organizations, multilateral

donors, and governmental agencies to increase transparency, accountability, and

management in remote frontier areas with the aim of reducing illegal logging.

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OUR CHANGING PLANET

Increasing Stress

Percentage Change in Water Stress

due to Population and Climate Change (1990–2025)

-23 to -15% -15 to 0% 0 to 15% 15 to 30% 30 to 59%

ã

N

0 95 190 380 570 760

Miles

Figure 13: Percentage

Change in Water Stress.

Projection of effects of changes

in population and climate on

changes in water stress

between 1990 and 2025. This

projection used the Hadley 2

Climate Model with sulfates

included to project precipitation

and air temperature out to 2025;

U.S. census demographic

projections to 2025; and 1992

Multi-Resolution Land

Characteristics (MRLC) vegetation data. Credit: S. McNulty,

USDA/Forest Service.
Simulating Urban Development in the Baltimore-Washington, D.C.,

Area.2,7,11 Using an existing urban model, scientists simulated patterns of urban

development in the Baltimore-Washington, D.C., area. Empirical calibration of the

model using Landsat Thematic Mapper image maps of past change between 1986 and

2000 provided calibration of the model using fine-scale data, and refined model

projections of future change.The data set also enabled an extensive sensitivity analysis

of the model.To serve regional planning needs, the multi-agency Chesapeake Bay

Program is now supporting the creation of 30-year projections for the entire Bay

watershed that will inform vulnerability assessments and decision support.These

scenarios range from one that assumes a continuation of current growth trends and

environmental protection policies, to one that assumes stronger environmental

protection on open lands and greater use of mass transit.This research is at the

forefront of urban modeling, creating fine-scale projections over large areas, using

methods grounded in urban theory and economics, and incorporating satellite

remote-sensing products (see Figure 15).

Impervious Surface Area Grid of the United States.6The construction and

maintenance of impervious surfaces (buildings, roads, parking lots, roofs, etc.)

constitutes a major human alteration of the land surface, changing the local hydrology,

climate, and carbon cycling.The United States is adding impervious surface area at a

rapid pace. Population is increasing at a rate of 3 million people per year. Annual U.S.

public and private sector construction spending is greater than $480 billion.This

includes more than one million new single-family homes and more than 10,000 miles

72

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Forest Clearing in Gunung Palung National Park

ã

1988 2002 1994

N

Kilometers

0 5 10 20

Figure 14: Forest Clearing in Gunung Palung National Park, 1988–2002. Cumulative forest loss within the Gunung Palung National

Park boundary (yellow line), Indonesia, and its surrounding 10-km buffer. Forest and non-forest classifications are based on Landsat

Thematic Mapper time series. Lowland (green) and peat (olive) forests were converted to non-forest (red), first predominantly in the buffer

and later within the park. Grey areas are montane forest and excluded from the analyses.

Credit: S.N. Trigg, University of Maryland (from Curran et al., 2004).
of new roads per year. Given these trends, impervious surface area is likely to become

a more prominent environmental and growth management issue in the coming years.

However, few areas have mapped impervious surface area, due in part to the technical

challenges and cost constraints of using high spatial resolution (e.g., 1-m) data for

direct mapping of constructed surfaces. As an alternative, existing national coverage

data sources have been used to model the percent cover of impervious surface area on

a 1-km grid for the conterminous United States.The data sources included satelliteobserved nighttime lights, three classes of Landsat-derived urban land cover, and U.S.

Census Bureau road vectors.The results indicate that total impervious surface area of

73

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Projections of Development Patterns in 2030

ã

N

Miles

0

5

10

20

30

40

50

0 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60

61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100 2000 Extent

of Development

Probability of Development

Figure 15: Percentage of

Development Patterns in 2030.

Using a cell-based urban model

(SLEUTH), projections of

development patterns in 2030

were created assuming three

different policy scenarios (current

trends, managed growth, and low

growth). SLEUTH was calibrated

using Landsat-derived maps of the

built environment that documented

development patterns between

1986 and 2000. This data set

provided a baseline that the

calibrated model used to

extrapolate patterns into the future.

Following business-as-usual

patterns of low density and

dispersed development, this

model projects that the amount of

developed land could increase

123%, putting at least 1,300 km2

of forests and 1,537 km2 of

agricultural lands at risk.

Credit: C. Jantz and S. Goetz,

The Woods Hole Research Center.
the 48 states (and D.C.) is 112,610 (±12,725) km2, which is slightly smaller than

Ohio (116,534 km2; see Figure 16).

Modeling Global Change Impacts on Wildfire Cycles.8 A Geographic

Information System (GIS) model (FCS-1) has been developed to enable research on

how the combined impacts of climate, fire, and human activities influence the nature,

distribution, and intensity of fire risk at scales relevant to management concerns and

needs. FCS-1 was developed with the recognition that strategic land management

requires an understanding of fire behavior and community needs over time.The

model incorporates traditional fire science with the human dimension of landscape

management in order to identify assets (e.g., property and recreation opportunities)

at risk in case of fire. A study utilizing this model emphasized evaluation sessions

involving both experts and community members.The evaluation sessions provided

valuable opportunities to improve scientific understanding of (a) the ways in which

models like FCS-1 might be employed in strategic planning activities to address fire

risk problems, and (b) the levels of confidence held by decisionmakers, scientists, and

74

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

U.S.-Constructed Fractional Impervious Surface Area

Fractional Impervious Surace Area (ISA) 0.0 >0.5 ISA

336 km

336 km

112,610 km2

Ohio

116,534 km2

Figure 16: Fractional

Impervious Surface Area. The

U.S.-constructed impervious

surface area (ISA) in 2000 was

nearly the size of Ohio.

Population is increasing at a

rate of 3 million people per

year. Annual U.S. public and

private sector construction

spending is greater than

US$480 billion. This includes

more than a million new singlefamily homes and more than

10,000 miles of new

roads per year.

Credit: C.D. Elvidge,

NOAA/National Geophysical

Data Center.
community members in the various types of scientific information contained in the

model.

Establishing the Effects of the Soviet Union’s Collapse on the Onset of

Spring across Kazakhstan.4,5,10 Agricultural policies in centrally planned

economies of the Soviet Union left enduring legacies of land-surface transformations

across eastern Europe and northern Eurasia.The collectivization efforts of the 1930s

and 1950s reorganized the land-patch dynamics of cultivated landscapes.The collapse

of the economic and political institutions of the Soviet Union at the beginning of the

1990s led to widespread agricultural de-intensification, land abandonment, loss of

livestock, and decreased grazing pressure. Mixed into the record of satellite observations

of the vegetated land surface are multiple sources of variation: seasonality, interannual

climatic variation, changes in observing sensors, and human activity, including land-use/

land-cover change. Methods were developed to differentiate the influences of human

activities from the other sources of variation at a spatial scale appropriate to link with

mesoscale meteorological models.The research focused on Kazakhstan, the ninth

75

OUR CHANGING PLANET

Significant Changes in Observed Growing Season: Kazakhstan

ã

N

Kazakhstan

Kilometers

0 250 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Not Analyzed

[Deserts]

No Significant

Change in Season

Earlier Start of

Growing Season

Earlier Start and

Earlier Vegetation Peak

Earlier Start, Earlier Peak,

and Longer Growing Season

Figure 17: Significant Changes in Observed Growing Season: Kazakhstan. Significant changes in growing season have been detected

in many of the 19 ecoregions across Kazakhstan. Credit: G. Henebry, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
largest country in the world in land area, spanning both semi-arid to arid regions

dominated by dryland agriculture and grazing, providing an excellent example of

post-Soviet land-use/land-cover change. Of the nineteen ecoregions in Kazakhstan,

twelve exhibit strong spring seasonality. Nine of those twelve have shown significant

changes in growing season vegetation dynamics when comparing the 1980s under the

Soviet regime with the late 1990s (see Figure 17).These change analysis methodologies

are transferable to other regions dominated by temperate vegetation.

Synthesis of Land-Cover and Land-Use Research.9 A synthesis of work carried

out under the auspices of NASA’s Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Program over

the past 8 years was published in 2004.This program involves hundreds of scientists

who have worked to understand human impacts on land cover, which is one of the

most important forces changing our planet.The work reported in the volume and

accompanying CD spans the natural and the social sciences, and describes the application

of state-of-the-art techniques for understanding the Earth.These techniques include

satellite remote sensing, geographic information systems, modeling, and advanced

computing.The volume includes detailed case studies, regional analyses, and globally

scaled mapping efforts.

HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2006 PLANS

CCSP will support research to identify, quantify, and understand fundamental processes

of land-use and land-cover change and their consequences. One avenue for support of

this work is an interagency solicitation that will result in delivery of the near-term

(2-year) products addressing aspects of the LULCC science questions outlined in

Chapter 6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan including detection and monitoring of LULCC

processes; LULCC drivers and environmental impacts; and LULCC and climate

variability and change interactions. A sampling of other key research plans for FY

2006 is provided below.

Land-Use Change Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Eastern Deciduous

Forests of North America. Understanding the role of forests as potential carbon

sinks is emerging as a national and global priority. In FY 2005, researchers began

investigating the role of recent past, current, and future land-use change on carbon

dynamics in eastern deciduous forests of North America.These forests may have played

a major role in past carbon dioxide uptake due to regrowth following major cutting at

the turn of the previous century. Current rates of timber harvest in eastern deciduous

forests are high, so future land-use and -cover changes may again affect carbon cycling.

New research will address the interactions between forest management and carbon

76

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
sequestration. Research will continue through FY 2007 and the results will help State

and national agencies manage forests in the context of future economic and climatic

changes.

These activities will address Question 6.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

A New Enhanced Map of Forest Biomass for All Russian Territory. A map

will be developed of the forest biomass of all Russia, based on Landsat satellite and

500m- and 250m-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

(MODIS) satellite products through a combination of classification and modeling and

using Russian Forest Inventory data of both high and low spatial resolution.This map

will be an improvement over existing products, as no current maps of the forest

biomass of Russia exist.The only current data are based exclusively on Russian Forest

Inventory data of “unknown and unverifiable” quality and with little spatial detail.

After a reliable methodology is developed and tested, this product could be reproduced

on a repeated basis allowing the assessment of changes in forest carbon stocks over time.

These activities will address Question 6.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Tropical Forest Assessment.A global tropical forest assessment will be

conducted.The current rate of tropical forest loss and degradation is not well

quantified. Previous efforts to measure deforestation in the tropics have had to rely on

spot checks and sparse sampling.This study will utilize the global archive of more than

10,000 Landsat scenes that have been acquired since 2000.The study will measure, with

fine spatial accuracy, deforestation and also logging, which has not been measured

before.The results will be validated using a global archive of high-resolution IKONOS

images acquired by NASA under the commercial Data Buy Program.The project is

being developed within the framework of the Global Earth Observing System of

Systems (GEOSS) initiative and in coordination with international programs, including

the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations

Environment Programme, and the Global Observations of Forest and Land Cover

Dynamics program.

These activities will address Question 6.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

A Basin-Scale Econometric Model

for Projecting Future Amazonian

Landscapes. A basin-scale econometric

model will be developed for use in

predicting land-cover change scenarios in

the Amazon basin.This model will combine

a regional-scale GIS with case studies to

project land-cover change over large areas.

77

OUR CHANGING PLANET
It will represent an improvement upon existing aggregate models for the Amazon, and

will lead to enhanced projection of land-cover change based on observed historical

deforestation in the basin.The empirical approach it employs will also facilitate the

evaluation of confidence intervals for model coefficients and independent comparison

of model projections.

These activities will address Question 6.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Mitigation Plan for Landsat-7 Problem. Since 1972, Landsat satellites have

collected data that have been invaluable for the quantitative study of land cover, land

use, and land-cover change.The ground resolution of the Landsat satellites is ideally

matched to study a wide range of surface phenomena. In addition, a variety of natural

and human land-use changes, such as wildfires, deforestation, agricultural activity,

glacier expansion/contraction, and urbanization represent alterations that also occur at

spatial scales of tens of meters. Since June 2003, Landsat-7 data have been substantially

degraded by a mechanical failure of the Landsat-7 instrument and there are no other

satellite systems available to provide Landsat-type data globally at these spatial scales.

While scientists are looking to use other U.S. and international satellite instruments

to provide interim land-cover data, a recognized need exists to ensure the continuing

availability of high-quality land-cover measurements into the future.The details of an

observing strategy to meet this requirement are under discussion now within the U.S.

Government. U.S. Government agencies affected by this include NASA, USGS,

USDA, EPA, DOD, the Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency

Management Agency (FEMA), and NOAA.The proposed solution for the lack of

Landsat-like data is to redirect agency resources to acquire global collections of data

from Landsat-5, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer

(ASTER), EO-1’s Advanced Land Imager, and similar satellites now operated by foreign

countries for the period 2005 to 2007.This effort will be organized by NASA and

USGS, the two major users of Landsat data, with advice from and participation of

other interested CCSP agencies.

These activities will address Questions 4.3, 4.4, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

78

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
79

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1) Alig, R.J. and B.J. Butler, 2004: Area Changes for Forest Cover Types in the United States, 1952 to 1997,

with Projections to 2050. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-613. United States Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA. 106 pp.

2) Bockstael, N. and E. Irwin, 2003: Public policy and the changing landscape. Estuaries, 26,

210-225.

3) Curran, L.M., S.Trigg, A. McDonald, D. Astiani,Y.M. Hardiono, P. Siregar, I. Caniago, and

E. Kasischke, 2004: Lowland forest loss in protected areas of Indonesian Borneo. Science, 303,

1000-1003.

4) de Beurs, K.M. and G.M. Henebry, 2004a: Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and

institutional change: Analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sensing of

Environment, 89, 497-509.

5) de Beurs, K.M. and G.M. Henebry, 2004b:Trend analysis of the Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL)

NDVI data for the deserts of Central Asia. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 1(4), 282-286.

6) Elvidge, C.D., C. Milesi, J.B.Dietz, B.T.Tuttle, P.C. Sutton, R. Nemani, and J.E.Vogelmann,

2004: U.S. constructed area approaches the size of Ohio. EOS Transactions, 85(24), 233-240.

7) Goetz, S.J., C.A. Jantz, S.D. Prince, A.J. Smith, R.Wright, and D.Varlyguin, 2004: Integrated

analysis of ecosystem interactions with land use change:The Chesapeake Bay watershed. In:

Ecosystems and Land Use Change [DeFries, R.S., G.P. Asner, and R.A. Houghton (eds.)]. American

Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph Series,Washington, DC. pp. 263-275.

8) Grünberg,W., B.J. Orr, G.L. Christopherson, and P.S. Johnson, 2002: Integrating biophysical,

climate, and human factors in a wildfire model. Proceedings of the 22nd Annual ESRI International User

Conference, July 7-11, 2002, San Diego, California.

9) Gutman, G., A.C. Janetos, C.O. Justice, E.F. Moran, J.F. Mustard, R.R. Rindfuss, D. Skole,

B.L.Turner II, M.A. Cochrane, 2004: Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring and Understanding

Trajectories of Change on the Earth’s Surface. Remote Sensing and Digital Image Processing Series,

Vol. 6. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany and New York, USA, 461 pp.

10) Henebry, G.M., K.M. de Beurs, and A.A. Gitelson, 2005: Land surface phenologies of

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan between 1982 and 1999. Arid Ecosystems (in press).

11) Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, A.J. Smith, and M. Shelley, 2004: Using the SLEUTH urban growth

model to simulate the land use impacts of policy scenarios in the Baltimore-Washington

metropolitan region. Environment and Planning (B), 36(2), 211-215.

12) McNulty, S., G. Sun, and J. Moore Myers, 2004: Climate, population and vegetation cover

change impacts on water yield and demand across the southern U.S. In: Proceedings of Geographic

Information Systems and Water Resources III, American Water Resources Association Spring Specialty

Conference, May 17-19, 2004, Nashville,Tennessee,11 pp.

LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

5 Global CarbonCycle

CCSP research on the global carbon cycle in FY 2006 will continue to address questions

of how large and variable the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes of carbon within the Earth

system are, and how carbon cycling might change and be managed in future years,

decades, and centuries.This research is needed to help human societies evaluate their

Strategic Research Questions

7.1 What are the magnitudes and distributions of North

American carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to

centennial time scales, and what are the processes

controlling their dynamics?

7.2 What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean

carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial

time scales, and what are the processes controlling

their dynamics?

7.3 What are the effects on carbon sources and sinks of

past, present, and future land-use change and resource

management practices at local, regional, and global

scales?

7.4 How do global terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric

carbon sources and sinks change on seasonal to

centennial time scales, and how can this knowledge be

integrated to quantify and explain annual global carbon

budgets? 

7.5 What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of

carbon dioxide, methane, and other carbon-containing

greenhouse gases, and how will terrestrial and marine carbon sources and

sinks change in the future?

7.6 How will the Earth system, and its different components, respond to various

options for managing carbon in the environment, and what scientific

information is needed for evaluating these options?

See Chapter 7 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these

research questions.
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options for managing carbon sources and sinks to achieve an appropriate balance of

risk, cost, and benefit.

Over the past 2 centuries, fossil-fuel emissions, land-use change, and other human

activities increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) by 30% and methane (CH4) by

150% to concentrations unprecedented over the past 420,000 years (the time span of

the longest fully documented ice core record). Future atmospheric concentrations of

these greenhouse gases will depend on trends and variability in natural and humancaused emissions and the capacity of terrestrial and marine sinks to absorb and retain

carbon. Options available to societies for stabilizing or mitigating concentrations of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through management of carbon in the environment

involve: (1) reduction of carbon emissions at their source and/or (2) enhanced

sequestration of carbon through biospheric storage or engineered approaches.

To address these and related research questions, the United States is focusing its carbon

cycle science on targeted research areas that are ripe for scientific progress and that

are most relevant to societal concerns.The agencies responsible for CCSP carbon

cycle research have organized a coordinated, interagency, and multidisciplinary

research strategy to bring together the broad range of infrastructure, resources, and

expertise essential for providing this information.This approach involves investigators

with atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, and human dimensions research expertise and

observational, experimental, and modeling skills.These agencies also are establishing

an ongoing dialog with stakeholders, including resource managers, policymakers, and

other decisionmakers to ensure that information is provided in a useful form.

The North American Carbon Program (NACP), designed to address strategic research

question 7.1 (see chapter banner), will continue to be a major priority.The NACP

will quantify the magnitudes and distributions of terrestrial, freshwater, oceanic, and

atmospheric carbon sources and sinks for North America and adjacent oceans;

improve understanding of the processes controlling source and sink dynamics; and

produce consistent analyses of North America’s carbon budget that explain regional

and sectoral contributions and year-to-year variability.The NACP is committed to

reducing uncertainties related to the buildup of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere and

the amount of carbon, including the fraction of fossil-fuel carbon, being taken up by

North America’s ecosystems and adjacent oceans.

The first studies to address the objectives of CCSP’s new Ocean Carbon and Climate

Change (OCCC) program plan, designed to address strategic research question 7.2,

will be initiated in FY 2006.The OCCC program is an integrated effort for oceanic

monitoring and research aimed at determining how much CO2 is being taken up by
the ocean at the present time and how climate change will affect the future behavior of

the oceanic carbon sink. NACP and OCCC program interests and objectives converge

in addressing carbon dynamics in the coastal oceans adjacent to North America and in

the land-sea margins – diverse and variable areas where impacts of changes in the

terrestrial environment and climate greatly complicate carbon cycle processes. New

investigations of carbon dynamics in the coastal oceans adjacent to North America will

address both OCCC and NACP objectives.

Other FY 2006 priorities, focused on reducing scientific uncertainties regarding

carbon sources and sinks, are: (1) conducting and reporting on experimental studies

to investigate the processes regulating carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems, and

(2) developing and improving global carbon cycle models and coupled carbon-climate

models to aid in improving projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT RESEARCH

AmeriFlux Network Measures Terrestrial Carbon Sinks and Sources and

Identifies Biological Controls.7,10,18The AmeriFlux network of research sites

measures terrestrial carbon sinks and sources and biological processes that regulate

the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere [referred

to as “net ecosystem exchange” (NEE)].The measurements show that mature forests

are important sinks for atmospheric CO2 (Hollinger et al., 2004). Disturbances that

replace or remove forests can result in the land being a net source of CO2 for a few

years in mild climates or up to a decade in harsh climates while the forests are

recovering (Law et al., 2004), after which they may gradually revert to being a sink

until the next disturbance. Moist tropical forests are not necessarily strong sinks

because some of them have experienced recent mortality events that leave large

amounts of decaying plant material that can release more CO2 to the atmosphere than

the forests remove [net source of about 1 tonne per hectare per year (Saleska et al.,

2003).Thus, the range of observed annual NEE of CO2 ranges from a source of about

1 tonne per hectare to a net sink of 2 to 4 tonnes per hectare for forests and about

1 tonne or less per hectare for agricultural crops and grasslands.These results are

expected to dramatically improve process depictions in carbon and climate models.

AmeriFlux Measurements Reveal Direct Influence of Volcanic Eruptions

on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle.1,5The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration

decreased after the explosive eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991.

Scientists have been debating the cause of this atmospheric CO2 decrease for many

years. In a recent study by Gu et al. (2003), a group of AmeriFlux scientists found

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
that aerosols (tiny particles suspended in the air) formed in the aftermath of the

eruption altered the quantity and quality of solar radiation for vegetation, and this

alteration significantly enhanced photosynthesis under cloudless conditions in a

deciduous forest in the United States.These measurements indicate that increased CO2

uptake by terrestrial vegetation caused by the effects of aerosols from the Pinatubo

eruption on incident solar radiation were at least partly responsible for the sudden

decline in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration after the eruption.The

study also indicates that anthropogenic aerosols, which can similarly change the quantity

and quality of solar radiation for vegetation, may affect carbon cycling dynamics. A

modeling study by Angert et al. (2004) suggests an alternate mechanism for the

enhanced CO2 sink in 1992-1993, due to a unique combination of an enhanced ocean

CO2 sink, reduced respiration driven by cooling and drying of the upper layers of the

soil thereby reducing heterotrophic respiration, and reduced biomass burning.These

studies illustrate the complexity of the global carbon cycle and underscore the crucial

need for continued observations to resolve carbon cycle uncertainties.

Impact of Fires on Interannual Variability in Global Atmospheric Trace

Gases.20Year-to-year changes in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and CH4 are

linked to fire activity associated with the El Niño/La Niña cycle. Information on

vegetation, precipitation, surface air temperatures, and changes in Earth’s radiation,

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OUR CHANGING PLANET

1997–2001 Mean Annual Fire Emissions

g C m-2 yr-1

0 50 100 150 200 250 >300

Figure 18: 1997–2001

Mean Annual Fire Emissions.

Observations from the VIRS

instrument on the Tropical Rainfall

Measuring Mission satellite and

MODIS instrument on Terra and

Aqua satellites provide

comprehensive information on the

timing and locations of fires. Red

to blue indicates high to low

emissions of carbon from fires

during 1997 to 2001, while white

indicates no fires were observed

during that period. Credit: NASA/

Goddard Space Flight Center.
derived from the Terra, Aqua,Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and Active Cavity

Radiometer Irradiance Monitor satellites, was used in modeling analyses of fire effects

for 1997 to 2001. Researchers quantified the amount of CO2 and CH4 emitted by

fires by combining the satellite data with in situ measurements of atmospheric gases.

Emissions of greenhouse gases from fires increased across multiple continental regions

in the El Niño year (1997-1998), including Southeast Asia (60% of the global

increase), Central and South America (30%), and boreal forests of North America and

Eurasia (10%).Vast areas of the tropics dry out and become vulnerable to fire during

El Niño events, thus enabling humans to use fire more effectively as a tool for clearing

land. Increases in fires and associated emissions of greenhouse gases are expected if

El Niño events increase in frequency and/or intensity in the future.

Regionalization of Methane Emissions from the Amazon Basin.13The

largest single source of CH4 emissions to the atmosphere is natural wetlands, which

account for between 20 and 40% of annual emissions; 60% of this is estimated to come

from tropical wetlands, although there is large uncertainty regarding the magnitude

and variability of that source.The Amazon Basin contains one of the largest areas of

seasonally inundated tropical wetlands. Microwave remote-sensing techniques were

used to measure wetland extent and seasonal variability, and the resulting data were

combined with results from existing field studies of CH4 flux in a model to extrapolate

CH4 flux across the entire Amazon Basin. Extrapolation to the Central Amazon Basin

(1.77 million km2 area) produces an estimated 6.8 TgC yr-1, and extrapolation to the

full Amazon River Basin below 500-m elevation (5.2 million km2, of which 17% is

wetland) produces an estimated 22 TgC yr-1 from CH4 emissions.This estimate is

lower than those previously reported for the region.The satellite data analyses indicate

that past studies overestimated the length of time seasonal wetlands were flooded and

therefore overestimated annual methane emissions.

Variability in Low Productivity Ocean Gyres.12The mid-ocean gyres are huge

circulation cells within the major ocean basins.They are vast expanses of very low

primary production and biomass.Their low productivity results from the physical

dynamics of the circulation within the gyre, which depresses the depths at which

significant nutrient concentrations (e.g., nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) required for

photosynthesis occur. Global surface chlorophyll concentrations measured over seven

years by the U.S. Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Japanese

Ocean Color and Thermal Scanner (OCTS) satellite sensors were used to estimate

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
temporal changes in the size of each gyre.The

analysis shows that these areas have a distinct

seasonal cycle and that the overall area of the

gyres in the North Pacific and North Atlantic

expanded during 1996 to 2003, while there was

little change in the area of the South Pacific,

South Atlantic, and southern Indian Ocean

gyres.The study did not attempt to explain why

the Northern Hemisphere gyres are expanding

and was too short to determine whether the trends will continue.This first-ever

quantification of year-to-year variability across the global oceans has implications for

carbon dynamics, and raises a concern about whether continued expansion of the

low-productivity gyres would reduce the size of the ocean carbon sink. Continuing

systematic satellite observations will be available to monitor future trends and address

this concern.

Changing Carbon Dynamics in the Oceans.4,17The Repeat Hydrography CO2/

Tracer Program is a systematic and global re-measurement of select cross-sections of

the ocean to quantify changes in storage and transport of heat, freshwater, CO2,

chlorofluorocarbon tracers, and related properties. For cruises in the North Pacific,

difference plots for the 2004 Repeat Hydrography compared with the 1994 World

Ocean Circulation Experiment quantitatively document significant changes. Increases

in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of up to 35 μmol kg-1 were observed in surface

waters and in intermediate depths ranging from 200 to 1000 m. On average, mixed

layer DIC increases of 1.5 ± 0.2 μmol kg-1 yr-1 were observed in the subtropical

waters of the North Pacific, indicating that over the past decade the oceanic uptake of

CO2 in this part of the global ocean has been faster than the rate of growth of CO2 in

the atmosphere.These results indicate that the rate of uptake of CO2 may differ

significantly in different regions of the global ocean.

Synthesis of Forest FACE Experiment Data.8,21 Common data sets were

assembled from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments being conducted

in forest ecosystems.The ongoing, multi-year experiments were in established stands

in North Carolina (loblolly pine) and Tennessee (sweetgum), and in young stands in

Wisconsin (aspen-birch-maple) and Italy (poplar). Soil respiration increased in response

to CO2 enrichment, and the relative response was larger in the young stands.The

temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was unaffected by CO2 enrichment. No

effects on soil nitrogen pools or processes were observed in the three forest FACE

experiments in the United States, indicating that nitrogen limitations are unlikely to

constrain increases in forest productivity at similar sites in the initial years following

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CO2 enrichment. Continued study of

these effects over longer time periods

will be critical for our ability to predict

long-term changes in soil nitrogen

availability and the potential for sustained

increases in productivity in a CO2-

enriched atmosphere.

Root Dynamics Control Forest Response to Atmospheric Carbon

Dioxide.11,14 Analysis of a nearly continuous 6-year record of fine root production

and mortality in an experimental sweetgum forest revealed a large increase in root

production and a significant change in the depth distribution of roots in forest plots

exposed to a CO2-enriched atmosphere.These responses, which were measured in a

FACE experiment, have important implications for carbon sequestration and nitrogen

and water uptake in this and other forest ecosystems. Allocation of carbon to fine roots

reduces the potential for carbon sequestration in plant biomass, but increases the

potential for carbon storage in soil. Comparison of the responses of the deciduous

forest with those in a similar experiment in a pine forest suggests that root system

dynamics can explain differences among ecosystems in their response to elevated

atmospheric CO2.These results indicate that accurate assessments of carbon flux and

storage in forests must account for the responses of root systems.

Long-Term Forest Management Studies Inform Carbon Management

Options.15The Long-Term Soil Productivity (LTSP) study seeks to understand how

anthropogenic disturbances affect the land’s capacity to store carbon through the

conduct of a series of 62 long-term field experiments in major forest types of the

United States and Canada.This unique study has been in place for more than a decade

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Figure 19: AmeriFlux Research Tower. Near Howland, Maine, a partnership

between the University of Maine, USDA Forest Service, and Woods Hole Research

Center provides a platform for studies of ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 and energy

exchange. Instruments visible on the tower include eddy flux instrumentation for

measuring net CO2 and energy exchange [supported by DOE's Office of Science/

Biological and Environmental Research (BER)], a dry deposition and meteorological

package for studying air quality (supported by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory), and

a sun photometer for assessing atmospheric aerosols (supported by NASA's Aerosol

Robotic Network). Recent results from this and a nearby companion tower have

quantified flux measurement uncertainties needed for data-model fusion efforts under

the North American Carbon Program (NACP), and have shown that this 140-year-old

coniferous forest remains a strong sink for atmospheric CO2. Researchers operate this

site with support from DOE. Credit: J. Lee, University of Maine.
and is the largest and most extensive experiment of its type in the world. Results

show differences in carbon and nutrient dynamics by soil type and climate regime and

provide critical information for developing management systems that maintain and

enhance productivity and carbon sequestration options. Findings from studies of

alternative fuel treatments for reducing fire risk indicate no significant differences in

CO2 efflux following treatment and provide a basis for local communities to reduce

fire risk and improve the health and vigor of forests without affecting greenhouse gas

emissions.

Land Resource Management and Reclamation Activities

have Significant Potential to Sequester Carbon.2,3,9,16,19

As noted previously, changes in soil carbon can potentially change

the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If

CO2 from the atmosphere, captured through photosynthesis, is

ultimately stored in the soil to a greater degree, the resulting soil

carbon sequestration may help slow the rise of atmospheric CO2.

Studies of soil carbon dynamics and storage in a variety of managed

systems in the United States and elsewhere have identified and

quantified significant carbon sequestration potentials:

• In situ measurements and models have determined soil organic carbon (SOC)

sequestration potentials for croplands, pastures and rangelands, disturbed lands

such as mining areas, natural areas such as wetlands, land in the Conservation

Reserve Program (CRP), and urban areas such as lawns, parks, and golf courses.With

improved management practices, the potential average rates of SOC sequestration

are approximately 70, 40, 60, and 13 Tg of organic carbon annually for cropland,

grazing land, forests, and CRP soils, respectively (Lal et al., 2003; USDA, 2004).

• Conversion of cropland to perennial systems in central Iowa increased the SOC

content by an average of 11 tonnes per hectare in the upper 35 cm of soil

(Cambardella et al., 2004).

• For agroforestry systems in Costa Rica, increased biodiversity resulted in greater

soil nutrient supply and carbon storage; plant roots were primarily responsible for

soil carbon accrual in these systems. Root organic matter quality, and not the

amount of root inputs, best explained effects of species diversity on soil carbon

sequestration (Russell et al., 2003).

• Restoration of semi-permanent wetlands in the prairie pothole region of the

northern Great Plains increased carbon content in surface sediments (Euliss et al.,

2003).

These results are examples of findings that contribute new scientific knowledge about

relationships of terrestrial ecosystem processes and management practices on carbon

sequestration. Land and resource managers, agricultural consultants, and environmental

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OUR CHANGING PLANET
organizations are using this new information to foster the development of agricultural

and land management systems that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, enhance soil

fertility, and improve soil and water quality.

Climate-Induced Thawing of Permafrost and Implications for Soil Carbon

Stocks.6The high-latitude regions of North America, including interior Alaska, are

critical areas for research because thawing of permafrost within the soil zone can

cause a release of carbon to the atmosphere. In the past 40 years, boreal North

America has warmed by at least 2°C and has experienced pervasive drying of lakes

and water tables. Landscapes with near-surface permafrost store greater than 60% of

their carbon stocks in organic soils.While long-term records indicate net carbon

storage on land, fires in recent decades have burned these landscapes in unexpected

proportions.Trace gas studies at the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research

Station have revealed complex responses of permafrost landscapes to fire, with postburn hydrological conditions and plant ecological processes determining the net

balance between CH4 and CO2 emissions and carbon sequestration. Drought and fire

induce complex responses (e.g., water table fluctuation, revegetation patterns) due in

part to the discontinuous nature of the permafrost.These findings emphasize the

importance of surface and subsurface hydrology for understanding the carbon dynamics

of boreal and arctic regions and emphasize the need for baseline studies of carbon

cycling on a variety of temporal and spatial scales.

HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2006 PLANS

In FY 2006, continuing observations, field campaigns and experiments, and model

development will be a priority under the NACP. Significant effort will be devoted to

continuing the development, expansion, and optimization of observations and

monitoring networks for North American, coastal, and global carbon sources and sinks.

The Mid-Continent NACP Intensive Campaign will be completing its initial field phase.

New ocean carbon research will be underway in support of the OCCC program, with

early emphasis on studies of carbon dynamics in the coastal oceans adjacent to North

America that also support NACP objectives. Data management plans and capabilities

for NACP and OCCC will be implemented. New experimental studies will be

conducted and the results of previous experimental studies will be synthesized to

explain the processes regulating carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems, including

carbon sequestration. Modeling investigations will focus on improved coupling of

carbon-climate models, carbon data assimilation, and better projections of CO2

emissions and ecosystem responses for climate models.The first State of the Carbon

Cycle Report is one of the CCSP synthesis and assessment products.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
NACP: Measurements and Monitoring. In FY 2006, NACP will continue to

assign high priority to global observations by enhancing observational capabilities and

monitoring networks for carbon fluxes and stocks in North America and adjacent

oceans.The following activities represent major commitments:

• Regional Carbon Monitoring – A carbon cycle atmospheric observing system is

being built for deployment across the United States in support of research to

reduce uncertainty in the North American carbon sink. Small aircraft flown from

24 U.S. sites will collect samples of carbon gases and other trace gases from the

surface to about 8-km altitude on a weekly basis. In conjunction with this “vertical

profiling,” tall communications towers (~500 m) will sample CO2 and other

greenhouse gases continuously from about 12 U.S. sites.This system is expected to

be fully implemented by 2007, contingent on availability of funding.The technique

will provide critical data for analysis of regional carbon sources and sinks and useful

decision-support information for carbon management.

• Landscape-Scale Carbon Sources and Sinks in Forests – Current forest monitoring

capability lacks many of the observations needed for complete forest carbon

accounting over large areas. An improved forest observation and monitoring

system that integrates several existing programs is undergoing pilot testing at

several forest sites in the United States. Standardized estimates of carbon stocks and

flows will provide a strong scientific foundation for development and deployment

of carbon sequestration technology to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Enhancing

observations at experimental forests has additional benefits such as facilitating use

of these sites for carbon management research and demonstration projects, and

providing the basis for an “early warning” capability to detect the initial impacts of

climate change.

• Landscape-Scale Carbon Sources and Sinks on Department of the Interior Lands –The

recently developed National Carbon Map will be used to identify and quantify the

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The CCSP Strategic Plan identifies 21 planned synthesis and assessment products describing the current state of knowledge concerning many

different aspects of climate and global change. One of these focuses on the carbon cycle.

North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 will

provide a synthesis and integration of current knowledge of the North American carbon budget and its context within the global carbon

cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers, it will (1) summarize our knowledge of carbon cycle properties and changes relevant to the

contributions of and impacts upon the United States and the rest of the world, and (2) provide scientific information for U.S. decision support

focused on key issues for carbon management and policy.The report will address carbon emissions, natural reservoirs and sequestration, rates

of transfer, the consequences of changes in carbon cycling on land and the ocean, effects of purposeful carbon management, and the socioeconomic drivers and consequences of changes in the carbon cycle. It will include an analysis of North America’s carbon budget that will document the state of knowledge and quantify uncertainties.This analysis will provide a baseline against which future results from the North

American Carbon Program (NACP) can be compared.

CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT
effects of fire, grazing, and other natural disturbances and human activities on the

status and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes.The results will clarify the spatial and

temporal dimensions of current U.S. carbon sources and sinks.

• Measurement of Carbon Cycle Processes in Agricultural Ecosystems – Process

information, carbon flux data, and carbon inventories from agricultural ecosystems

will be provided for the mid-continent region of North America. By expansion of

the Greenhouse Gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement

(GRACEnet) and Agriflux networks, this activity will systematically determine

the effects of grazing and cropping on soil carbon and atmospheric CO2 emissions.

• Continental-Scale Satellite Data Time Series – New and continuing investments will

be made to produce continental-scale Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite data

products for spatial extrapolation of carbon stock and flux estimates. Data products

on primary productivity, land cover, and vegetation and phytoplankton properties

of North American lands and adjacent oceans will be used to drive carbon and

climate models.

• Coastal Carbon Measurements and Process Studies – New ocean margin studies will

be initiated to determine rates of carbon burial and export to the open ocean,

elucidation of factors controlling the efficiency of the solubility and biological

pumps in coastal environments, quantification of the influence of coastal marine

biogeochemical processes on the chemical composition of open ocean surface

waters, and development of coupled physical-biogeochemical models for different

types of continental margins

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, and 7.6 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

NACP: Field Studies. Intensive field campaigns and experimental studies under

NACP will feature the following activities in FY 2006:

• Mid-Continent NACP Intensive Campaign – An intensive field investigation centered

on the mid-continent region of North America will develop and test methods for

regional and continental estimates of carbon sources and sinks.This study will

evaluate and compare two independent approaches for estimating carbon fluxes at

the regional scale: the “top-down” approach using atmospheric measurements and

models, and the “bottom-up” approach using vegetation and soil carbon inventories,

land cover, meteorological information, and models.This prototype study will

integrate existing data on crop, forest, and soil carbon content with data from the

AmeriFlux research network, airborne sensors, and satellites. Biological process

information from current experiments, atmospheric profiling, and statistical

databases of the mid-continent region will play key roles. Results will help in the

design of more comprehensive research for quantifying and explaining variation of

carbon sources and sinks across North America.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
• Tracing Soil Carbon Fluxes – Research will continue on a unique experiment using

radiocarbon to trace carbon flux within soils.The results will improve models of

soil carbon processes and quantification of belowground carbon sequestration.

These activities will address Questions 7.1 and 7.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Ocean Carbon and Climate Change Research. New studies will be initiated to

advance the goals of the OCCC science implementation strategy:

• Ocean Repeat Hydrography and Carbon Measurements –The Repeat Hydrography

Program will continue measurements of key ocean properties along cross-sections

of the North Pacific.The suite of measurements will include total carbon, partial

pressure of CO2, temperature, depth, salinity, oxygen, and nutrients.

• Coastal CO2 Measurement Platforms – Prototype platforms will be sited off the U.S.

East Coast to continuously measure ocean CO2 partial pressure and atmospheric

CO2 concentrations.The measurements will improve information on atmosphereocean CO2 exchange and atmospheric CO2 at the continental boundary.

• Satellite Data Analysis – New studies will focus on using ocean color to characterize

carbon dynamics globally and on using a variety of satellite and in situ data to

quantify and understand

the spatial variability of

air-sea CO2 flux in the

oceans adjacent to

North America. Other

studies will focus on

the development and

analysis of remotesensing data and

products that facilitate

understanding of the

input and fate of nonCO2, climate-relevant

carbon compounds

(e.g., dissolved organic

matter, CH4, carbon

monoxide) to the

aquatic environment.

These activities will

address Questions 7.1,

7.2,and 7.4 of the

CCSP Strategic Plan.

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OUR CHANGING PLANET
Study of Terrestrial Processes Regulating Carbon Balance. Long-term field

experiments and major campaigns are identifying processes that are critical to reducing

uncertainties in carbon budgets and improving model-based predictions of future

terrestrial carbon dynamics. A variety of experimental studies will be continued and

several scientific syntheses are anticipated in FY 2006; new studies to better understand

climate-related ecosystem effects on carbon balance will be conducted:

• Productivity at FACE Sites – Net primary productivity (NPP) is an integrated measure

of how ecosystems respond to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Data from four forest

ecosystems that are being exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2 in FACE experiments

will be analyzed and synthesized to determine how NPP is affected by elevated

atmospheric CO2 and other environmental factors.

• Acclimation to Enriched Carbon Dioxide – Results of two studies investigating

acclimation (adaptation to a new environmental condition; in these cases, enriched

atmospheric CO2) processes will be published in 2006.These results are expected

to underscore the importance of acclimation processes for ecosystem- to globalscale modeling of carbon cycling.

• Amazonian Carbon Balance – Integrative research utilizing data from the Large

Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia will document current

understanding of carbon source and sink dynamics, the processes controlling them,

and any remaining uncertainties for the Amazon region of South America.These

results are expected to greatly reduce errors and uncertainties concerning the

carbon balance of tropical forests.

• Impacts of Invasive Species – Research on the impacts of invasive species on terrestrial

carbon cycling processes will continue by studying the responses of different types

of invasive species (grasses vs. woody species) along a precipitation gradient.The

research will provide information about invasive species impacts on ecosystem

productivity to make global estimates of carbon cycling more accurate and reliable.

• Climate-Induced Permafrost Thawing and Associated Drying and Forest Fires – Research

will continue to investigate the relationship between water-table fluctuations and

associated changes in soil carbon in northern latitudes of Alaska. Investigations of

lake drying at Yukon Flats Wildlife Refuge will be initiated, and post-fire regrowth

will be monitored at study sites established after the pervasive 2004 wildfires.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
Development of New Measurement and Analysis Methods. In FY 2006, the

following work will be underway to develop new measurement and data analysis

methodologies for carbon cycle science:

• AmeriFlux Data Assimilation System – An integrated framework for using AmeriFlux

measurements and ecosystem models to understand terrestrial carbon cycling

processes will be developed.This framework, which is called the AmeriFlux Data

Assimilation System, takes advantage of diverse, continuous AmeriFlux measurements

of CO2 and energy exchanges and combines them with a detailed process-based

ecosystem model. It will yield information on ecosystem states and carbon sinks in

real time and will be an effective tool for scientists to investigate fundamental

ecological processes that are difficult to observe directly.

• New Remote-Sensing Measurements – New remote-sensing research will be initiated

to evaluate the technological capabilities for space-based measurement of:

(1) vegetation three-dimensional structure and biomass; (2) phytoplankton and

vegetation physiological properties and important plant functional types; and

(3) the space-time variability of aquatic optical properties that may be translated

into new ocean color observations of coastal particles and their abundance. All have

direct relevance for quantifying global carbon sources and sinks.

• Coastal Ocean Color Calibration – Ocean color satellite calibration capabilities will be

expanded to include observations of coastal zones.The objective will be to improve

remote detection and quantification of optical, biological, and biogeochemical

parameters in these regions.This research will improve our understanding of

coastal biological and biogeochemical processes, improve coastal models, and

eventually enable prediction of changes in processes such as offshore carbon fluxes.

• Satellite Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Development of new

remote-sensing capabilities for the measurement of atmospheric CO2 will continue,

and scientific research will be conducted to prepare for utilization of such data.

Globally sampled measurements of atmospheric column CO2 (i.e., column-integrated

CO2 dry air mole fraction) will increase by ~100 times the available measurements

to drive inverse models and should enable regional resolution of carbon sources

and sinks.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, and 7.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Improved Modeling for Projections of Carbon Dioxide and Climate.

Continuing and new investments will be made in modeling studies to support NACP,

the Mid-Continent NACP Intensive Campaign, the OCCC program, and activities on

global carbon dynamics and climate change assessment.

• Coupled Carbon-Climate Modeling – Research will link terrestrial ecosystem models

with climate simulation models to incorporate biogeochemical and physiological

responses and feedbacks associated with climate change. Emphasis will be placed on

93

OUR CHANGING PLANET
developing new code for including these ecosystem-scale processes and responses

in current representations of coupled climate-land surface models. Priorities are to

model an empirically derived respiration acclimation feedback to climate perturbation

and to include physiologically based mechanisms of ecosystem response to CO2

using FACE experimental data.

• Carbon Data Assimilation – Research will be conducted to develop, test, and apply

carbon data assimilation and data fusion schemes that incorporate in situ and

remotely sensed data and focus on enabling forecasts of changes in atmospheric

CO2 and CH4 concentrations on short or long time scales with estimates of

uncertainty. Studies to explore assimilation of coastal or ocean margin carbon data

into general circulation models will be initiated.

• Model Comparisons –The southern Great Plains of the United States will be the

focus for a model-based comparison of “bottom-up” and “top-down” approaches to

estimating ecosystem CO2 fluxes at the regional scale. Predicted temporally and

spatially resolved gross and net CO2 fluxes will be made available to NACP

researchers to help evaluate NACP-related results for regional CO2 exchange,

climate, and land use.

These activities will address Questions 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, and 7.5

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

94

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

1) Angert,A., S. Biraud, C. Bonfils,W. Buermann, and I. Fung, 2004: CO2 seasonality indicates

origins of post-Pinatubo sink. Geophysical Research Letters, 31. doi:10.1029/2004GL019760.

2) Cambardella, C.A., K. Schilling, P. Drobney,T. Isenhart, and R. Schultz, 2004: Soil carbon

assessment across a native prairie restoration chronosequence. In: Proceedings of the 18th Annual

North American Prairie Conference. June 23-27, 2002 [Fore, S. (ed.)].Truman State University Press,

Kirksville, Missouri, USA. pp. 49-53.

3) Euliss, N.H., R. Gleason, A.E. Olness, R.L. McDougal, H. Murkin, R. Robarts, R. Bourbonniere,

B.Warner, 2003: Prairie wetlands of North America important for carbon storage. Geological

Society of America. Paper no. 110-10.

4) Feely, R.A., C.L. Sabine,T. Ono, A. Murata, R. Key, C.Winn. M. Lamb, and D. Greeley, 2004:

CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program: Initial carbon results from the North Pacific Ocean.

Eos Transactions,AGU, 85(47), Fall Meeting Supplement OS24B-02.

5) Gu, L.H., D.D. Baldocchi, S.C.Wofsy, J.W. Munger, J.J. Michalsky, S.P. Urbanski, and T.A. Boden,

2003: Response of a deciduous forest to the Mount Pinatubo eruption: Enhanced photosynthesis.

Science, 299, 2035-2038.

6) Harden, J.W., R. Meier, C. Darnel, D.K. Swanson, and A.D. McGuire, 2003: Soil drainage and

its potential for influencing wildfire in Alaska. In: Studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 2001

[Galloway, J. (ed.)]. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1678.Western Region, Menlo

Park, California, USA, pp. 139-144. Available at <geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/prof-paper/pp1678>.

7) Hollinger, D.Y., J. Aber, B. Dail, E.A. Davidson, S.M. Goltz, H. Hughes, M.Y. Leclerc, J.T. Lee,

A.D. Richardson, C. Rodrigues, N.A. Scott, D. Achuatavarier, and J.Walsh, 2004: Spatial and

temporal variability in forest-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Global Change Biology, 10, 1689-1706.

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES
95

OUR CHANGING PLANET

8) King, J.S., P.J. Hanson, E. Bernhardt, P. DeAngelis, R.J. Norby, and K.S. Pregitzer, 2004: A

multi-year synthesis of soil respiration responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 from four forest

FACE experiments. Global Change Biology, 10, 1027-1042.

9) Lal, R., R.F. Follett, and J.M. Kimble, 2003: Achieving soil carbon sequestration in the U.S.: A

challenge to the policymakers. Soil Science, 168, 827-845.

10) Law, B.E., D.Turner, J. Campbell, O.J. Sun, S.Van Tuyl,W.D. Ritts and W.B. Cohen. 2004:

Disturbance and climate effects on carbon stocks and fluxes across western Oregon USA. Global

Change Biology, 10, 1429-1444.

11) Matamala R., M.A. Gonzàlez-Meler, J.D. Jastrow, R.J. Norby, and W.H. Schlesinger, 2003:

Impacts of fine root turnover on forest NPP and soil C sequestration potential. Science, 302,

1385-1387.

12) McClain, C.R., S.R. Signorini, and J.R. Christian, 2004: Subtropical gyre variability observed by

ocean color. Deep-Sea Research, Pt. II, 51(1-3), 281-301.

13) Melack, J.M., L.L. Hess, M. Gastil, B.R. Forsberg, S.K. Hamilton, I.B.T. Lima, and

E.M.L.M. Novo, 2004: Regionalization of methane emissions in the Amazon Basin with

microwave remote sensing. Global Change Biology, 10, 530-544.

14) Norby R.J., J. Ledford, C.D. Reilly, N.E. Miller and E.G. O’Neill, 2004: Fine root production

dominates response of a deciduous forest to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences, 101, 9689-9693.

15) Powers, R.F., F.G. Sanchez, D.A. Scott, and D. Page-Dumroese, 2004:The North American longterm soil productivity experiment: coast-to-coast findings from the first decade. In: Silviculture in

Special Places [Shepperd,W.D. and L.G. Eskew (eds.)]. Proceedings of the National Silviculture Workshop

at Granby, CO, 8-11, September 2003. Proceedings RMRS-P-34. United States Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, pp. 191-206.

16) Russell, A.E., C.A. Cambardella, J.J. Ewel, and T.B. Parkin, 2003: Species, rotation, and lifeform diversity effects on soil carbon in experimental tropical ecosystems. Ecological Applications,

14, 47-60.

17) Sabine, C.L., R.A. Feely,Y.W.Watanabe, and M.F. Lamb, 2004:Temporal evolution of the north

Pacific CO2 uptake rate. Journal of Oceanography, 60(1), 5-15.

18) Saleska, S.R., S.D. Miller, D.M. Matross, et al., 2003: Carbon in Amazon forests: Unexpected

seasonal fluxes and disturbance-induced losses. Science, 302, 1554-1557.

19) USDA, 2004: U.S.Agriculture and Forestry Greenhouse Inventory: 1999-2001. USDA Technical Bulletin

No. 1907. United States Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist, Global

Change Program Office,Washington, D.C., USA, 164 pp.

20) van der Werf, R. Guido, J.T. Randerson, G.J. Collatz, L. Giglio, P.S. Kasibhatla, A.F. Arellano Jr.,

S.C. Olsen, and E.S. Kasischke, 2004: Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the

1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña period. Science, 303, 73-76.

21) Zak, D.R.,W.E. Holmes, A.C. Finzi, R.J. Norby, and W.H. Schlesinger, 2003: Soil nitrogen

cycling under elevated CO2:A synthesis of forest FACE experiments. Ecological Applications, 13,

1508-1514.

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
96

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

6 Ecosystems

Ecosystems supply food, fiber, fuel, clean air and water, and many other goods and

services to society. Global change is affecting the provision of these goods and services

by altering ecosystems and biodiversity in complex ways. Observational and

experimental studies reveal shifting ecosystem boundaries, changes in flowering or

migration times, changes in ice breakup on streams and rivers, and changes in

productivity and disturbance regimes (e.g., fires, pest and disease outbreaks).These

observed changes might be associated with climate variability [e.g., El Niño Southern

Oscillation (ENSO)], as well as other global changes such as gradual climate warming

and fragmentation of ecosystem habitats.

The role of CCSP-supported ecosystems research is to increase the knowledge

necessary to forecast the potential magnitude of global change effects on ecosystems

and their feedbacks to the climate system, to help society respond effectively. In

Strategic Research Questions

8.1 What are the most important feedbacks between

ecological systems and global change (especially

climate), and what are their quantitative relationships?

8.2 What are the potential consequences of global change

for ecological systems?

8.3. What are the options for sustaining and improving

ecological systems and related goods and services,

given projected global changes?

See Chapter 8 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for

detailed discussion of these research questions.
97

OUR CHANGING PLANET

FY 2006, research on ecosystems within CCSP will continue to focus on changes in

ecosystems and the frequency and intensity of disturbances to ecosystem processes

associated with global change, particularly those anticipated to have significant

consequences for society during the next 50 years.This research will enable society to

better protect both aquatic and terrestrial ecological resources and their goods and

services.

Successful research on the interactions of global change and ecosystems requires

collaboration across agencies, as well as ongoing input from scientists within and outside

the Federal Government to address scientifically important and socially relevant

issues.To meet the goals of the ecosystems research element described in the CCSP

Strategic Plan, the participating agencies work collaboratively on many research

activities. Most of the research accomplishments and plans described in this chapter

represent the joint efforts of multiple agencies.To engage the research community in

providing input and feedback, the CCSP Ecosystems Interagency Working Group

(EIWG) organized a workshop to bring together a broad array of scientists who were

asked to identify and articulate priority research topics in support of the CCSP

Strategic Plan for ecosystems research.Their report will be released in winter 2006

and will be an important reference as CCSP and participating agencies continue to

develop science and implementation plans.

The ecosystems component of the FY 2006 CCSP budget request targets several highpriority research needs. One is improved measurements at multiple scales to better

quantify and model ecological feedbacks to atmospheric chemistry and climate.

Research is also being conducted to develop satellite tools that combine satellite

observational data with physical and ecological models.These tools will improve our

ability to understand and project changes in the distribution of organisms with changes

in climate and other environmental factors. A number of projects on feedbacks

between ecological systems and global change are closely related to feedbacks being

investigated through other research elements. For example, carbon cycle feedbacks to

warming, which are potentially quite significant, are handled largely by the global

carbon cycle research element, but with input from the ecosystems research element.

Land-surface biophysical feedbacks, which can be quantitatively significant in some

modeling schemes, are handled through interactions with the land-use/land-cover

change and the climate variability and change research elements. Related research in

the ecosystems research element is being coordinated with these groups.

Aquatic ecosystem research priorities in FY 2006 include using integrated modeling

systems, observations, and process studies to project the effects of climate variability

and change on near-coastal and marine ecosystems, communities, and populations.
Research is also being conducted on the combined effects of changes in land use and

climate on nonpoint sources of pollution entering estuaries. Estuaries are chosen

because they are the natural integrators of upstream changes in land use and climate.

The combined effects of other environmental factors on aquatic ecosystems are also

being examined: studies of the effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and elevated carbon

dioxide (CO2) on freshwater planktonic lakes, shallow estuarine waters, and deeply

mixed clear waters are being conducted using field work, observations, and ecosystem

models.

Terrestrial ecosystems research priorities in FY 2006 include a long-term study of the

western U.S. mountains and the relationship of observed sudden ecosystem changes

to changes in climate conditions (e.g., reduction in the size of glaciers, changes in

alpine treelines at their transition zone); the role of recent past, current, and future

land-use change on carbon dynamics in eastern deciduous forests; and the effects of

climate change on tree species population genetic structure to identify the genetic

processes most critical to population survival and how they interact to affect species

fitness. Long-term manipulative field experiments will be continued to better

understand effects of warming, changes in precipitation, and changes in atmospheric

composition on the functioning of forest, grassland, and shrubland ecosystems. A final

priority topic is research on the effect of crop rotation, tillage, and nitrogen fertilization

on the net global warming potential of agricultural systems, with the purpose of

producing methods that may limit global warming potential in irrigated and rain-fed

cropping systems while sustaining agricultural yields.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT ACTIVITIES

EIWG-Sponsored Workshop on Priority Setting for Ecosystems Research

in CCSP.The EIWG sponsored a workshop, held in February 2004 in Silver Spring,

Maryland, that brought together a diverse group of 70 scientists from U.S. universities,

research centers and institutes, and Federal agency research programs in a “think tank”

atmosphere for 3 days.The specific objective was to identify and articulate priorities

and approaches for research under Chapter 8 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Although the

EIWG organized and funded it, the workshop was run by a steering committee from

the science community.The workshop report is due in the winter of 2006 and will be

available on the CCSP web site (see <www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ecosystems>).

Convergence in Ecosystem Water Balance over Continental Scales.9Water

availability limits plant growth and production in almost all terrestrial ecosystems, but

biomes differ substantially in sensitivity of aboveground plant growth, or aboveground

98

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
net primary production (NPP). A recent synthesis building on over 10 years of

productivity data from 14 sites in North America showed that rainfall-use efficiency

decreased across biomes as mean annual precipitation increased. However, during the

driest years at each site, there was convergence to a common maximum value typical

of arid ecosystems. In years when water was most limiting, deserts, grasslands, and

forests all exhibited the same rate of biomass production per unit rainfall, despite

differences in physiognomy and site-level differences in efficiency. Incorporating this

information into ecosystem models will improve forecasts of future ecosystem behavior

in the face of climate change.

Global Patterns in Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production.10

Biophysical models were used in conjunction with data from the United Nations Food

and Agriculture Organization to estimate the annual amount of Earth’s terrestrial NPP

or plant growth that humans require for food, fiber, and fuel using the same modeling

architecture as satellite-supported NPP measurements.The amount of Earth’s NPP

required to support human activities is an aggregate measure of human impacts on the

biosphere and an indicator of societal vulnerability to climate change.The amount of

human-appropriated NPP (HANPP) for each country was calculated on a per capita

basis for products consumed and then projected onto a global map of population to

create a spatially explicit map of NPP-carbon “demand” (see Figure 20).The HANPP map

was compared to a map of “supply” derived from Advanced Very High-Resolution

Radiometer data from satellites. It was found that humans consume 20% of Earth’s

total NPP on land, with regional balances ranging from 6% consumed in South America

to over 70% consumed in Europe and Asia, and local balances ranging from near 0%

(central Australia)

to over 30,000%

for major urban

areas (e.g., New

York City).The

uneven distribution

of NPP supply

and demand

indicates the

degree to which

countries rely on

NPP “imports” and

suggests options

for slowing future

growth in NPP

demand.

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OUR CHANGING PLANET
100

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

PgC x 10-4

0-0.1

0.1-2.2

2.2-4.5

4.5-6.8

6.8-9.2

9.2-11.6

No Data

log10 (gC yr-1)

13.4

9.8

5.8

No Data

% of NPP

200+ 100-200 80-100 60-80 45-60

30-45 20-30 10-20 0.1-10 0 No Data

NPP Input

Human-Appropriated NPP

HANPP as a Percent of NPP

Human Appropriation of Terrestrial Net Primary Production

Figure 20: Human

Appropriation of Net Primary

Production on Land.

Average annual terrestrial NPP

(i.e., ‘supply’) based on

17 years of AVHRR satellite

data (top); global distribution of

human-appropriated NPP

(HANPP, i.e., ‘demand’) for

all food and fiber products

(middle); and NPP-carbon

balance (HANPP as a percent

of NPP, calculated for each grid

cell) (bottom). Highly populated

areas (yellow and red)

consume up to 300 times

their local production.

Credit: M. Imhoff,

NASA/Goddard Space

Flight Center.
Ocean Photosynthesis from Space.1The rate of photosynthesis for a given area is

determined by its biomass of living plant material, the plants’ growth rates, and the

availability of sunlight. Until now, quantifying photosynthetic rates over large ocean areas

has been difficult, if not impossible, because growth rates could not be characterized

from space.The path to solving this problem is to use ocean color data analysis –

specifically the application of partial wave analysis – that permits estimates of both the

carbon biomass of ocean plants and their growth rates.This development will make it

possible to use satellite remote sensing to improve estimates of ocean photosynthesis

and detect changes over time.

Warming Interactions with Soil Carbon and Nitrogen in the Arctic

Tundra.12 Research results from the Arctic tundra in Alaska demonstrated how

warming and consequent release of nutrients from increasingly decomposing soil

organic matter will feed back positively and lead to increasing carbon losses from

tundra soils. Data from a 20-year fertilization experiment showed that increased

nutrient availability caused a net ecosystem loss of almost 2,000 gC m-2 (a 21%

reduction over the 20-year period), even though annual aboveground plant production

doubled, because of losses of carbon and nitrogen from deep soil layers.The results

suggest that projected releases of soil nutrients associated with high-latitude warming

may further amplify carbon release from soils, causing a net loss of ecosystem carbon

and a positive feedback to climate warming.

Effects of Nitrogen Deposition on Water Quality and Carbon Sequestration.16

Human effects on the natural cycling of nitrogen have caused significant alterations of

land productivity, freshwater quality, and marine ecosystems. Nitrogen compounds

generated by human activities are transported by the atmosphere and deposited onto

ecosystems. Healthy forests remove much of the deposited nitrogen, storing it in plant

tissues. In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, for example, forests retain 88% of deposited

nitrogen, allowing only about 1 kg ha-1 yr-1 to leach into aquatic ecosystems (see

Figure 21). As the level of deposition rises, the percentage of nitrogen retained declines

and the amount of nitrogen released into downstream ecosystems increases. Nitrogen

deposition will increase productivity in terrestrial ecosystems that are nitrogen deficient.

Net carbon uptake by forests of the mid-Atlantic region could increase by 25% from

nitrogen deposition; however, this rate of increase may be reduced by ground-level

ozone pollution, which is damaging to many plant species.

Ecosystem Warming Facility Constructed and Operational. An ecosystem

warming experimental facility was constructed in a boreal forest in northern

Manitoba, Canada, and began operation during FY 2004.The facility exposes trees

and soils to temperatures 5°C above ambient to examine potential effects of warming

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OUR CHANGING PLANET
on northern forests. Preliminary (FY 2004) data show acclimation of soil respiration to

warming such that the rate of respiration (CO2 release) following warming was about

the same as the rate prior to warming, indicating a nearly complete acclimation to

warming in the belowground component of the ecosystem.This result, if corroborated

by continued data collection in FY 2005 and beyond, has important implications for

102

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Chesapeake Bay Nitrogen Deposition Scenarios

0 0.18 - 0.8 0.81 - 1.2 1.21 - 1.4 1.41 - 1.6 1.61 - 1.8

1.81 - 2.2 2.21 - 3 3.01 - 4 4.01 - 5 5.01 - 23.89

Run 1: Control

No N, Fixed CO2 (280)

Run 2

N Deposition, Fixed CO2

Run 3

2 x N Deposition, Fixed CO2

Min.: 0 Max.: 3.2

Mean: 0.026 STD: 0.135

0

100,000 Distribution of Values

Min.: 0.179 Max.: 10.59

Mean: 1.229 STD: 0.911

0

6,000 Distribution of Values

Min.: 0.274 Max.: 23.89

Mean: 3.781 STD: 3.198

0

6,000 Distribution of Values

Figure 21: Chesapeake Bay Nitrogen Deposition Scenarios. Predicted losses of nitrogen from forested lands of the Chesapeake Bay

watershed under no nitrogen deposition (left), current nitrogen deposition (middle), and doubled nitrogen deposition (right).

Credit: Pan et al., 2004.
understanding a potential positive feedback on global warming caused by increased

soil respiration in northern ecosystems (i.e., such a positive feedback might not occur

in all ecosystems). In the warmed plots, tree growth began earlier in the spring and

the growth of understory plants was greatly increased. Such changes in plant growth

and its seasonal timing are important to the energy balance of northern ecosystems as

the climate warms, and could result in a positive feedback to warming. Early results

indicate greater carbon gains in the warmed plots relative to the ambient plots. For

more information on this facility, see <per.ornl.gov/>.

Elevated Carbon Dioxide Effects on a Florida Ecosystem.8 A study of a

Florida scrub oak forest ecosystem suggested for the first time that the abundance of a

trace element influenced the response of vegetation to elevated CO2.The response of

a nitrogen-fixing plant to elevated CO2 declined over a 7-year period.The decline was

strongly correlated to a decline in molybdenum, an element required for producing a

key enzyme that affects nitrogen uptake by plants.The work illustrates that plant

responses to elevated CO2 may be highly species-specific. It also raises the possibility

that the expected increase in plant growth due to elevated CO2 could be limited by

the availability of nitrogen.

Effects of Climate Change on Eastern U.S. Bird Species.14An atlas was produced

that documents the current and potential future distribution of 150 common bird

species in the eastern United States in relation to climate and vegetation distributions.

Distribution data for individual species were derived from the Breeding Bird Survey

from 1981 to 1990. Models were developed that related distributions of individual

bird species to environmental variables (tree species abundance, climate variables, and

elevation variables).Two scenarios of global climate change were then used to project

potential changes in the distributions of the bird species. Depending on the global

climate model used, as many as 78 bird species are projected to decrease by at least

25%, while as many as 33 species are projected to increase in abundance by at least

25% due to climate and habitat changes (see Figure 22 for an example).

Climatic Variability, Ecosystem Dynamics, and Disturbance in Mountain

Protected Areas.2,3,4,5,7,17,18 Northwestern mountain ecosystems play an important

role in shaping the economies and landscape development of the region and provide

services such as water purification and storage, and recreational opportunities. A

project was initiated to quantify how the hydrological and ecological aspects of these

ecosystems respond to climatic variability and large-scale landscape disturbance by

examining past responses and projecting possible future outcomes of ongoing climatic

change.The research project, Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain

Ecosystem Transect (CLIMET), was carried out across a transect of mountain systems

103

OUR CHANGING PLANET
104

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Black-Capped Chickadee Occurrence

Incidence

0.0

0.05-0.2

0.0-0.05

0.4-0.6

0.2-0.4

0.8-1.0

0.6-0.8

No Data

Current BBS Predicted Hadley

Modeled Current Predicted CCC

Geographic Predictors

1

3

2

5

4

7

6

8

No Data

9

Potential Shifts

+ +

+ 0

0 +

0 0

- +

- 0

+ -

0 -

<0.05

- -

No Data

CCC Had

Figure 22: Black-Capped Chickadee Occurrence. Potential changes in occurrence of the Black-Capped Chickadee under two

climate scenarios. “Incidence” refers to the proportion of sightings during annual breeding bird surveys. Credit: Matthews et al., 2004.
along gradients of maritime to continental climate and decreasing landscape

fragmentation (Olympic National Park, North Cascades National Park, and Glacier

National Park) (Fagre and Peterson, 2002).The project has provided information on

glacial decline, alpine forest changes, and ecological responses to climate variability

(Fagre et al., 2003). For example, an analysis of digital aerial photography and historical

data documents that the number of glaciers in Glacier National Park has dropped from

an estimated 150 in 1850 to 27 present today.The largest glaciers are, on average, only

28% of their previous size (see Figure 23). Future glacial recessions and vegetation

distributions were projected using a geospatial modeling approach. Projections indicate

that the largest glaciers will be gone in the northern Rocky Mountains by the year

2030 if current rates of warming continue (Hall and Fagre, 2003).The loss of glaciers

in mountain watersheds will change the timing and amount of stream discharge and

affect aquatic organisms dependent on cold waters.

Data are becoming available on the response of mountain ecosystems to climatic

variability, particularly to multi-decadal trends in moisture. One such long-term pattern

is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a period of above- or below-average sea

surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that influences climate in the northwest

part of North America. Mountain snowpacks in Glacier National Park track the PDO

very closely and show regular 20- to 30-year periods of greater and lesser snow cover

(Selkowitz et al., 2002).These patterns explain glacier fluctuations and periods of

increased tree growth in the northern Rocky Mountains (Pederson et al., 2004).The

frequency and size of forest fires in the Pacific Northwest also show a clear response

to the PDO (Hessl et al., 2003). Analysis of tree ring widths from drought-sensitive

trees indicates that such multi-decadal oscillations have had an influence on these

mountain environments for the past 500 years or more (Gedalof et al., 2005). Such

results suggest that it may be possible to forecast general mountain ecosystem

responses to continuing climatic oscillations.

Sensitivity of Forests in Northern California to Climate and Fire Regime

Variation.19,21 Often, fire appears to serve as a catalyst for change during periods of

rapid climate change.Time-series analyses show that vegetation associations with

large, long-lived species (conifers) appear to lag in response to climate variations until

major fires (as seen in charcoal influx to sediments) reset the stage and encourage

major vegetation reorganization.This provides evidence of the potential influence of

catastrophic fire on the reorganization of ecosystems under periods of rapid climate

variation and could have major implications for habitat and forestry.

Leaf Pores: An Important Link among Increasing Greenhouse Gases, the

Water Cycle, and Rising Temperatures.13,15 Carbon dioxide and ozone (O3), both

greenhouse gases, directly affect plant physiological processes, including photosynthesis.

105

OUR CHANGING PLANET
These gases affect the opening and closing of microscopic pores (stomata) on plant

leaves that regulate movement of water from the soil, through the plant, and into the

atmosphere.Water vapor escaping through these pores cools the leaves and is important

in the global water cycle.The number of stomata per unit of leaf area in grassland

plant species in the southern United States was measured after the plants had been

exposed for 4 years to a continuous CO2 gradient spanning pre-industrial to neardouble ambient concentrations. At higher CO2 levels, stomatal density was greater for

two species, decreased for one species, and unchanged for four species. In another

field experiment using FACE technology, soybean plants were grown in the field at

CO2 and O3 concentrations projected for the mid-21st century to explore how these

changes in atmospheric composition might affect a nationally important agroecosystem.

This work has provided the first field-scale evidence that rising CO2 and O3

concentrations decrease the loss of water vapor through the stomata and have the

potential to substantially reduce summer moisture supply to the atmosphere (at the

same time conserving soil moisture) and cause a warming of vegetated surfaces that

will raise surface temperatures independently of greenhouse warming.

106

Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park, MT

1938

T.J. Hileman Photo

1998

D. Fagre Photo

1981

C. Key Photo

Figure 23: Glacier Retreat over the Past Century. Repeating photographs from the same location have provided visual documentation

of the extent of glacier retreat over the past century. Credit: USGS/Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center.
U.S. Marine Resource Managers Seek Guidance from Climate Scientists

on Impacts of Regime Shifts.11 Mounting evidence indicates that decadal climate

changes in ocean productivity must be considered in assessments of fish stocks. In

1998, marine resource managers perceived a climate regime shift in the North Pacific.

This shift resulted in cooler ocean conditions within the California Current System

and Gulf of Alaska, but warmer surface waters in the central North Pacific.These

changes apparently led to increased biological productivity within much of the

California Current System and Gulf of Alaska (e.g., increased abundance of plankton

and recruitment of many commercial fish stocks including Pacific salmon species,

Pacific hake, and groundfish in the California Current System, and Pacific salmon

species, shrimp, pollock, Pacific cod, and sablefish in the Gulf of Alaska), but

decreased productivity in the Central North Pacific (e.g., northward shift in the low

chlorophyll surface waters and decreased survival of monk seal pups in the northern

atolls of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands). In response to this, the U.S. National

Marine Fisheries Service requested advice from the North Pacific Marine Science

Association on the potential effects of climate change on fish stocks in the North

Pacific. An ad hoc group of U.S. and international scientists was formed, confirmed

that the North Pacific entered a new climate state in 1998, and detailed the associated

changes.The group advised agencies to develop management policies with explicit

decision rules and subsequent actions to be taken when there are preliminary indications

that a regime shift has occurred. Existing indicators, such as temperature and primary

production, make it possible to detect shifts soon after they occur, but due to limited

understanding of the mechanisms that lead to regime shifts, it is not possible to reliably

predict how long any new state will last.The report included four recommendations

for incorporating regime shift concepts into fishery management activities: accept the

regime concept for marine ecosystems; develop and maintain a comprehensive

observational program to monitor changes; develop climate indices to aid ecosystem

monitoring efforts; and make use of fish stock assessments to evaluate the vulnerability

of ecosystems to various future regime scenarios.

New Long-Term Ecological Research Network Sites in Coastal Areas.The

addition of the Moorea Coral Reef and the California Current Ecosystem to the LongTerm Ecological Research (LTER) Network has expanded the number of LTER sites to

26.These two new sites significantly augment the LTER Network, which had previously

included only one marine site in the Antarctic, and ensure that high biodiversity and

productivity ecosystems in most of the world’s major biomes are represented in the

network. Understanding gained from the site on the island of Moorea in the South

Pacific will enable more accurate projections of how coral reef ecosystems respond to

environmental change, whether human-induced or from natural cycles.The California

Current System sustains active fisheries for a variety of finfish and shellfish, modulates

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weather patterns and the hydrologic cycle of

much of the western United States, and plays a

vital role in the economy of myriad coastal

communities. Research will focus on how the

influences of El Niño, the PDO, and multidecadal warming trends affect these systems.

The LTER program continues to have a major

network-wide focus on climate change impacts

on ecosystems (see <www.lternet.edu>).

Coral Reef Watch: Satellite Input.6,20The number of reported coral reef bleaching

events was minimal before the ENSO events of 1998 and 2002. During these events,

significant coral mortality occurred throughout western Pacific and Caribbean coral

reefs, bringing to light one likely correlation between anomalous temperatures and

ecosystem response (Urban et al., 2000). Since then, scientists have been developing

an understanding of the potential causes and links leading to significant coral bleaching

events.The Coral Reef Watch Program (see <coralreefwatch.noaa.gov>) uses landand satellite-based instruments and in situ tools for near-real-time and long-term

monitoring, modeling, and reporting of physical environmental conditions of coral

reef ecosystems. Biological, physical, and environmental data critical to coral reef

ecosystems are continuously received, input into Coral Reef Watch, and provided to

Reefbase (see <www.reefbase.org>), a global information system.These data are

used to help design future marine protected areas, coral reef parks and refuges, and

research areas (Heron and Skirving, 2004). Linking ecosystem models with current

and past climate data will enable scientists to understand the relationship between

climate parameters and coral ecosystem response.These efforts will provide tools that

managers and stakeholders can use in the field to conserve corals. It is important to

continue the acquisition of Landsat-like satellite data for these purposes.

Creation of the National Ecological Observatory Network.Work was initiated

with the American Institute for Biological Sciences to set up a National Ecological

Observatory Network (NEON) Design Consortium and Project Office.This consortium

will develop a blueprint for the network and a plan for its implementation. NEON

will be the first national observation system designed to answer ecological questions at

regional and continental scales. Data from the network will help to develop a predictive

understanding of the relationship between environmental change and biological

processes. Focus areas for NEON include the impact of climate change on forests and

agriculture, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases, the causes and consequences

of invasive species, and the forecasting of biological change. For more information, see

<www.neoninc.org>.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF FY 2006 PLANS

Definition of Requirements for Ecosystem Observations. An ongoing analysis

of existing data, model projections, and conceptual hypotheses is expected to be

completed during FY 2006.The analysis will draw on output from workshops,

reviews of existing scientific literature, and new model calculations to provide an

initial definition of the requirements for ecosystem observations needed to quantify

ecological feedbacks to climate and atmospheric composition.The specification of

requirements will seek to enhance the use of existing observing systems, but will also

consider needs for new observing capabilities.The activities to be completed during

FY 2006 will focus on the western United States, but are expected to provide a solid

scientific base for similar activities for other regions.

These activities will address Question 8.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Use of Remote Sensing to Detect and Forecast Global Change Effects. By

combining satellite observation data with physical and ecological models, progress is

being made toward the goal of using remote sensing to relate changes in climate and

other environmental factors to changes in the distributions of organisms and how they

relate to their environments.The groundwork is being laid for improved satellitebased tools for detection of changes in marine and terrestrial plant physiology as well

as for distinguishing between groups of organisms having different roles in the cycling

of elements and water. Improvements in our ability to remotely sense the threedimensional structure of habitats also help to meet the goal. Coupling observationally

driven models across spatial scales and model types (e.g., linking regional climate

models to ecosystems food web models) is providing a better understanding of the

connections between the geophysical and biological components of this planet. In one

example planned for FY 2006, integrating global climate models and regional climate

models with food web models will result in forecasts of the impacts of interannual

climate phenomena, such as ENSO events, on the productivity of specific fisheries.

These forecasts should promote more sustainable harvests of fish stocks.

These activities will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Models and Indices for Improved Fisheries Management.The ongoing

North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity project will integrate

observations and understanding into predictive models, metrics, and indices of

ecosystem status and trends for use in marine fisheries management. Expanded

monitoring will increase our understanding of how climate influences the structure

and function of ecosystems in the eastern Bering Sea and northern Gulf of Alaska.

Central components of the monitoring system are regional biophysical moorings and

research cruises. Analyses of data from the monitoring system will be used to construct

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and validate new conceptual and predictive models and to provide indices of ecosystem

status.These results will provide resource managers with knowledge and tools to

adapt to the consequences of climate change for marine ecosystems.

These activities will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Determining the Effects of Climate Variability on Marine Populations.

U.S. GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics) is a research program organized

to address the question of how global climate change may affect the abundance and

production of animals in the sea. It has supported major field research efforts in the

Georges Bank/Northwest Atlantic Region, the Northeast Pacific, and the Southern

Ocean and western Antarctic Peninsula.These field studies have incorporated

observations of physical and biological oceanographic parameters in the three regions,

process studies to understand mechanisms and dynamics driving these ocean ecosystems,

and modeling developments to link physical and ecological processes in a predictive

framework. In FY 2006, researchers will begin synthesizing results to provide increased

overall understanding of the responses of these ecosystems to climate variability, and

allow predictions of population responses.The U.S. GLOBEC program will also

provide advice to guide ecosystem-based management of marine resources in the face

of climate change.

These activities will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Elevation Maps Depicting Areas Vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise and

Planning Maps Depicting How State and Local Governments Plan to

Respond to Sea-Level Rise. A tool using sea-level rise elevation and planning maps

is being designed for coastal planners at all levels for use in developing master plans. It

will provide high-precision maps that will delineate low-lying lands that would be

eroded or inundated as the sea rises. Along with overlying maps of planned or existing

infrastructure, habitat types, and models of ecosystem response to inundation, this

will provide managers of coastal development with sufficiently detailed information to

accommodate expected consequences of sea-level rise.The ongoing effort will provide

this product for part of the coast of North Carolina and be a template for future work

along other low-lying coasts.

These activities will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation and Elevated Carbon Dioxide on Aquatic

Ecosystems. Ongoing research is being conducted on UV radiation effects in a variety

of aquatic ecosystems including freshwater planktonic lakes, shallow estuarine waters

of the Chesapeake Bay, and deeply mixed, clear waters of the Ross Sea, all of which

can be exposed to enhanced UV-B radiation.The responses of key flux processes (e.g.,

carbon and nitrogen cycling) to UV radiation are being measured and used to develop

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
ecosystem models that include UV as a factor.The models also include the effects of

elevated CO2 on the production of UV-absorbing carbon compounds in adjacent

marsh ecosystems, which are the subject of an ongoing field manipulation.

These activities will address Question 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Linkages between Tropical Storms, Ecosystem Diversity, and Climate Change

in Pacific Islands. A research project will examine the effects of a particularly severe

typhoon (Sudal) on upland forests, mangroves, and seagrass ecosystems in Micronesia.

This typhoon resulted in the deposition of large quantities of wood (fuels) on the

forest floor and increased susceptibility to severe wildfire. Shifts in invertebrates of

seagrass and mangrove ecosystems, forest structure, and the composition and recovery

of the marine and mangrove biota will be measured and compared to similar ecosystems

unaffected by recent typhoons on neighboring islands. Observations will continue

through 2006.The results will improve information for planning adaptation measures

for Pacific Island forest and marine ecosystems and societies to the potential for

more severe or frequent tropical cyclones or increases in the occurrence of El Niño

events.

These activities will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Understanding Ongoing Changes in the

Mountains of the Western United States.

A study was launched by the USGS Fort Collins Science

Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center,

Western Ecological Science Center, and the USDA Forest

Service Pacific Northwest Research Station to better

understand ongoing changes in the mountains of the western

United States. Aims of the study include understanding the

causes of sudden changes in mountainous areas, such as the

recent die-off of trees on millions of acres in New Mexico,

Arizona, and southern California. Since 2002 in the Jemez

Mountains, mortality of overstory piñon has exceeded 95%

(by spring 2004), and most piñon seedlings have died.

Local piñon-juniper woodlands are being rapidly and

massively transformed in the southwestern United States

by the current combination of warm and dry climate

conditions.These results highlight the potential for rapid,

drought-induced changes in woody vegetation due to

extreme climate events.

These activities will address Question 8.2

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Final Data Collection from the Longest Large-Scale Ecological Climate

Change Experiment.The Throughfall Displacement Experiment located in a

deciduous hardwood forest in eastern Tennessee has been studying whole-forest responses

to altered precipitation, a possible component of climatic change, continuously since

1993.The project has provided much new and unique data during its lifetime, some of

which was summarized in a 2003 book devoted to the experiment.This experiment

has also served as an important source of data for the development and testing of a

wide range of ecosystem models. During FY 2006, final data collection will occur

for this large-scale field experiment.The precipitation manipulations will be ended

and extensive characterization of the effects of 13 years of chronic changes in the

precipitation inputs to the forest ecosystem will be completed.

These activities will address Question 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Polar Bear Survival in a Vanishing Sea-Ice Environment.The polar bear

(Ursus maritimus) is the top predator of the Arctic marine ecosystem.Throughout

their range, they are dependent on sea ice for nearly all aspects of their life history.

Evidence indicates that Arctic regions have warmed recently, and that one of the most

prominent effects of these changes is an altered sea-ice environment. Hence, polar

bears, which may be the first large mammal to show obvious effects of climate

change, are an ideal “indicator” of the status of the Arctic system.This study will

examine how sea-ice quality and condition have changed and will change for the period

between 1985 and 2008. It will establish how polar bears adapt to those changes

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
spatially, and will test whether there is evidence that spatial responses, mediated by

climate change, alter polar bear condition, productivity, and survival of young.

These activities will address Question 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Dynamics of Historic Species Ranges and Implications for Conservation.

The effects of climate change on tree species population genetic structure are being

quantified.The research approach is primarily through natural experiments; for

example, species whose ranges were fragmented by past environmental change,

largely the global warming that ended the last glacial period and the Holocene climatic

fluctuations that followed. Measures of population structure and health, including

genetic diversity, rates of gene flow, and inbreeding, are estimated from molecular

markers for threatened and fragmented populations.The goals of the research are to

identify the genetic processes most critical to population survival and how they

interact to affect species fitness.The findings will be used to recommend management

strategies to help provide species and gene conservation. Data collection and analysis

will continue in FY 2006.

These activities will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Effects of Changes in Land Use and Climate on Non-Point Source

Pollution in Estuaries. Climate and land-use change will affect the constituents of

non-point source pollution entering water bodies. Non-point sources of pollution

come from agriculture, suburban, and urban land uses. Changes in precipitation, for

example, combined with changes in these land uses, will affect the ratio of nutrients

and pollutants entering water bodies. Estuaries are natural integrators of upstream

changes in land use and climate and are therefore the focus of research to be initiated

in FY 2006. Selected locations with water quality monitoring and land-use data will

be used to model the effects of climate and land-use changes on ecological endpoints.

Best management practices scenarios and the relevant ecological endpoints will be

identified through stakeholder workshops. Based on workshop results, analyses will

explore management options to estimate their effectiveness at reducing projected

impacts on water quality and valued ecological endpoints.

These activities will address Question 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Climate Change Effects on Bioindicators and Biocriteria Programs.

Biocriteria are narrative descriptions or numerical values (e.g., community composition,

abundance of specific “indicator” species) that are used to describe the condition of a

water body that supports aquatic life. Biocriteria help to identify cumulative effects of

all stressors within a water body.These ecological indicators may be vulnerable to

changes in temperature, stream flow, sedimentation, the timing, amount, and seasonality

of precipitation, and land-use changes. Biocriteria programs are designed to compare

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reference sites with non-reference sites to detect impairment. However, the

combination of climate change and land-use change effects on biocriteria may cause

baseline conditions at reference and non-reference sites to change, making impairment

difficult to interpret. In FY 2006, case studies will be initiated in several States and for

several aquatic ecosystems to identify those biocriteria metrics that are sensitive to

climate and land-use changes, and those bioindicators that may be used to monitor

shifting baselines between reference and non-reference sites.These studies will outline

the general implications of climate change and land-use change for aquatic ecosystem

health and for biocriteria programs.

These activities will address Question 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Effect of Agricultural Practices on Net Global Warming Potential. Research

will provide new information about the effect of crop rotations, tillage, and nitrogen

fertilization on the net global warming potential of agricultural systems – that is, the

difference between total greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, and

nitrous oxide) and carbon sequestration. Collection of emissions and sequestration

data along with soil environmental factors related to trace gas exchange will assist in

verification of simulation models that can be used to estimate net global warming

potential on larger spatial and temporal scales. In FY 2006, these analyses will lead to

the development of methods by which global warming potential can be limited in

irrigated and rain-fed cropping systems while sustaining agricultural yields.

These activities will address Question 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

1) Behrenfeld, M.J., E. Boss, D.A. Siegel, and D.M. Shea, 2005: Carbon-based ocean productivity

and phytoplankton physiology from space. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB1006.

doi:10.1029/2004GB002299.

2) Fagre, D.B., D.L. Peterson, and A.E. Hessl, 2003:Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem

responses to climatic variability. Climatic Change, 59(1), 263-282.

3) Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson, 2002: Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate

change in three North American mountain ranges. In: Mountain Biodiversity:A Global Assessment

[Körner, C. and E.M. Spehn (eds.)]. Parthenon Publishing Group, London, United Kingdom,

pp. 251-261.

4) Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson, and N.J. Mantua, 2005: Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States. Ecological Applications, 15(1),

154-174.

5) Hall, M.P. and D.B. Fagre, 2003: Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National

Park, 1850-2100, BioScience, 53(2), 131-140.

6) Heron, S.F., and W.J. Skirving, 2004: Satellite bathymetry use in numerical models of ocean

thermal stress. La Revista Gayana, 68(2), 284-288.

ECOSYSTEMS

CHAPTER REFERENCES
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7) Hessl, A.E., D. McKenzie, and R. Schellhaas, 2003: Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation

linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecological Applications, 14, 425-442.

8) Hungate, B., P. Stiling, P. Dijkstra, D. Johnson, M. Ketterer, G. Hymus, C. Hinkle, and B. Drake,

2004: CO2 elicits long-term decline in nitrogen fixation. Science, 304, 1291.

9) Huxman,T.E., M.D. Smith, P.A. Fay, A.K. Knapp, M.R. Shaw, M.E. Loik, S.D. Smith,

D.T.Tissue, J.C. Zak, J.F.Weltzin,W.T. Pockman, O.E. Sala, B.M. Haddad, J. Harte, G.W. Koch,

S. Schwinning, E.E. Small, and D.Williams, 2004: Convergence across biomes to a common

rain-use efficiency. Nature, 429, 651-654.

10) Imhoff, M., L. Bounoua,T. Ricketts, C. Loucks, R. Harriss, and W. Lawrence, 2004: Global

patterns in human appropriation of net primary productivity. Nature, 429, 870-873.

11) King, J.R. (ed.), 2005: Report of the Study Group on the Fisheries and Ecosystem Responses to Recent

Regime Shifts. North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) Scientific Report No. 28, Sidney,

British Columbia, Canada, 162 pp.

12) Mack, M.C., E.A.G. Schuur, M.S. Bret-Harte, G.R. Shaver, and F.S. Chapin III, 2004: Ecosystem

carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization. Nature, 431, 440-443.

13) Maherali, H., H.B. Johnson, and R.B. Jackson, 2003: Stomatal sensitivity to vapor pressure

difference over a subambient to elevated CO2 gradient in a C3/C4 grassland. Plant Cell and

Environment, 26, 1297-1306.

14) Matthews, S., R. O’Connor, L.R. Iverson, and A.M. Prasad, 2004: Atlas of Climate Change Effects

in 150 Bird Species of the Eastern United States. General Technical Report NE-GTR-318.

USDA/USFS, Newtown Square, PA, 340 pp.

15) Ort, D.R. E.A. Ainsworth, M. Aldea, D.J. Allen, C.J. Bernacchi, M.R. Berenbaum, G.A. Boller,

G. Cornic, P.A. Davey, O. Dermody, F.G. Dohleman, J.G. Hamilton, E.A. Heaton, A.D.B. Leakey,

J. Mahoney,T.A. Mies, P.B. Morgan, R.L. Nelson, B. O’Neil, A. Rogers, A.R. Zangerl, X.-G. Zhu,

E.H. DeLucia, and S.P. Long, 2005: SoyFACE:The effects and interactions of elevated CO2 and

O3 on soybean. In: Managed Ecosystems and CO2 Case Studies, Processes and Perspectives [Nosberger, J.

(ed.)]. Springer-Verlag. (in press).

16) Pan,Y., J. Hom, R. Birdsey, and K. McCullough, 2004: Impacts of rising nitrogen deposition on N

exports from forests to surface waters in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Environmental

Management, 33(4) (Supplement), 120-131.

17) Pederson, G.T., D.B. Fagre, S.T. Gray, and L.J. Graumlich, 2004: Decadal-scale climate drivers

for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Geophysical Research Letters, 31,

L12203. doi:10.1029/2004GL019770.

18) Selkowitz, D.J., D.B. Fagre, and B.A. Reardon, 2002: Interannual variations in snowpack in the

crown of the continent ecosystem. Hydrological Processes, 16, 3651-3655.

19) Skinner, C.N., 2003: Fire history of upper montane and subalpine glacial basins in the Klamath

Mountains of northern California. In: Proceedings of Fire Conference 2000:The First National Congress

on Fire Ecology, Prevention, and Management [Krista, E., M. Galley, R.C. Klinger, and N.G. Sugihara

(eds.)]. 27 Nov - 1 Dec 2000, San Diego, CA. MISC13,Tall Timbers Research Station,Tallahassee,

FL, pp. 145-151.

20) Urban, F.E., J.E. Cole, and J.T. Overpeck, 2000: Influence of mean climatic change on climate

variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record. Nature, 407, 989-993.

21) Whitlock, C., C.N. Skinner, P. Bartlein,T. Minkley, and J.A. Mohr, 2004: Comparison of

charcoal and tree-ring records of recent fires in the eastern Klamath Mountains, California,

U.S.A. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 34(10), 2110-2121.

ECOSYSTEMS

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

7 Decision-Support ResourcesDevelopment and Related

Research on Human

Contributions and Responses

CCSP Decision-Support Goals

Decision-Support Goal 1: Prepare scientific syntheses and

assessments to support informed discussion of climate

variability and change and associated issues by decisionmakers,

stakeholders, the media, and the general public.

Decision-Support Goal 2: Develop resources to support adaptive

management and planning for responding to climate variability

and climate change, and transition these resources from

research to operational application.

Decision-Support Goal 3: Develop and evaluate methods

(scenario evaluations, integrated analyses, and alternative

analytical approaches) to support climate change policymaking

and demonstrate these methods with case studies.

Strategic Research Questions

9.1 What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and significance of the primary

human drivers of, and their potential impact on, global environmental

change?

9.2 What are the current and potential future impacts of global environmental

variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity

of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased

and vulnerability reduced?

9.3 How can the methods and capabilities for societal decisionmaking under

conditions of complexity and uncertainty about global environmental

variability and change be enhanced? 

9.4 What are the potential human health effects of global environmental change,

and what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental information is needed

to assess the cumulative risk to health from these effects?

See Chapter 11 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of

decision-support resources development and Chapter 9 for these specific research questions.
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Decisionmakers, resource managers, and other interested citizens need reliable sciencebased information to make informed judgments regarding policy and to take relevant

action to address the risks and opportunities of changes in climate and related systems.

Providing this information is the overall purpose of CCSP.This calls upon researchbased resources distributed throughout the program’s research elements and CCSP’s

13 participating departments and agencies. A specialized element of CCSP research

described in this chapter focuses on development of resources to support decisionmaking

and related research on human contributions and responses to environmental change.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES

Decision-support resources include analyses and assessments, interdisciplinary research,

analytical methods (including scenarios and alternative analysis methodologies), model

and data product development, communication, and operational services that provide

timely and useful information to address questions confronting policymakers, resource

managers, and other stakeholders.This research is especially relevant to CCSP Goal 5:

“Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and change.”

Development of decision-support resources is targeted at three broad categories of

uses: (1) input to discussions of climate variability and change by decisionmakers,

stakeholders, the media, and the general public; (2) adaptive management and planning;

and (3) policy decisions. Each of these categories has a unique set of stakeholders and

requires different decision-support tools. However, they share a common reliance on

partnerships between scientists and stakeholders to define the problems to be

addressed, the nature of decision-support resources to be developed, the expected

information to be provided, and the approach for describing levels of confidence and

key uncertainties (see the chapter banner for more detail on the goals of decisionsupport resources development).

Expected outcomes of those CCSP activities focused on the development of decisionsupport resources include:

• Improved science syntheses and assessments for informing public discussion of

climate change issues

• Expanded adaptive management capacity to facilitate the responses of resource

managers to climate variability and change

• Assessment information for evaluating options for mitigation of and adaptation to

climate variability and change

• Identification of information needs to guide the evolution of the CCSP science agenda.
CCSP is encouraging research (described in this chapter) to improve existing assessment

methods and to develop new approaches that integrate research from the physical,

chemical, biological, medical, engineering, and social sciences. According to the

National Research Council (NRC), “In order to address the consequences of climate

change and better serve the Nation’s decisionmakers, the research enterprise dealing

with environmental change and societal interactions must be enhanced.” Such an

enterprise should include “...support of interdisciplinary research that couples

physical, chemical, biological, and human systems” (NRC, 2001).

RELATED RESEARCH ON HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS

AND RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENT CHANGE

Successful development of decision-support resources requires a research base that

includes not only research in the natural sciences but that also focuses on human

contributions and responses (HCR) to changes in climate and related systems –

sometimes known as “human dimensions” research.This research covers a number of

questions and is a key – but certainly not the only – part of the foundation for

improved decision-support resources, and is also discussed in this chapter (see the

chapter banner for more detail on key HCR research questions). HCR research

includes studies of the interactions of environmental change with a number of aspects

of human systems, including:

• Demography (population evolution and change)

• Economics (e.g., national economic growth, international trade, technology

development and diffusion, and economic implications of potential impacts and

adaptation or mitigation measures) 

• History and anthropology (e.g., response of societies to past environmental changes)

• Political science and sociology (e.g., organizations and their role in the policy

process; institutions and their role in shaping decisions and behavior).

This research adds to an understanding of how humans contribute to changes in the

global environment, why some societies are more resilient and others are more

vulnerable to change, and how attributes of social and economic organization can make

it either easier or more difficult to mitigate and to adapt to global environmental

change.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
COORDINATING DECISION-SUPPORT

AND HUMAN DIMENSIONS RESEARCH

For the first time, this edition of Our Changing Planet combines “Decision-Support

Resources Development” and “Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental

Change” in a single chapter.This reflects the NRC’s recommendation to enhance

research on the connections between environmental change and societal interactions to

better support decisionmaking. It also reflects a commitment on the part of CCSP to

improve the interactions between development of decision-support resources and

human dimensions research. Improving coordination between decision-support

resources development and research on human contributions and responses will be

advantageous because both areas share a number of challenges. Both areas require a

systematic approach to examining how decisionmakers use information about climate

and the environment in decisionmaking. And both depend on the integration of social,

economic, and health data with environmental data. Such integration requires that

information from diverse disciplines be available at compatible temporal and spatial

scales. Geo-referenced data are needed to support investigation of the interactions of

environmental and socioeconomic trends in specific places and decision contexts.

There is a risk that treating these topics together will mistakenly imply that decisionsupport resources development depends solely on this specific area of research, or that

the study of human contributions and responses to change is limited to only supporting

decisions. Neither statement is correct. Development of decision-support resources

cannot be isolated in a single program element, disconnected from research throughout

CCSP. Responsibility for developing decision-support resources is distributed across

CCSP and success depends on developing strategies for integrating knowledge from

the many diverse fields represented in the program. CCSP’s strategy for improving

understanding of human-environment interactions recognizes the need for basic

research into the human dimensions of global change that may not lead directly to

decision-support resources.This chapter describes both sets of activities and begins to

explore their interrelationships.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES GOAL 1:

SCIENTIFIC SYNTHESES AND ASSESSMENTS

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606, section 106) directs the

USGCRP to “produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting to

formulate effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of

global change” and to undertake periodic science “assessments.”The CCSP Strategic Plan

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defines “assessments” as “processes that involve analyzing and evaluating the state of

scientific knowledge (and the associated degree of scientific certainty) and, in interaction

with users, developing information applicable to a particular set of issues or decisions.”

Assessments are an effective means for integrating and analyzing CCSP research results

with other knowledge, and communicating useful insights in support of a variety of

applications for decision support. Assessments also help identify knowledge gaps and

thus provide valuable input to the process of focusing research.

The synthesis and assessment products are special cross-cutting products focused on

and relevant to a number of science and policy issues (see sidebar for an example).The

synthesis and assessment products being generated by CCSP fall under this mandate

and focus on a variety of science and policy issues important for public discussion and

decisionmaking. CCSP agencies will carry out the analyses with interagency cooperation

to ensure the best utilization of resources from the entire program.This approach will

cover the full range of CCSP goals and will provide a “snapshot” of knowledge concerning

the environmental and socioeconomic aspects of climate variability and change.The

21 synthesis and assessment products are listed in Table 2-1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

aligned with the CCSP goals they address.The scope of a few of these (i.e., 4.3, 4.5,

4.6, and 4.7) has been modified from those listed in the CCSP Strategic Plan to make the

suite of products more responsive to Section 106 of the Global Change Research Act.

To facilitate preparation of the products, CCSP published a set of guidelines that

define a methodology that includes development of a prospectus with open scientific

and public comment, reliance on scientific experts to draft the products, scientific peer

review followed by open public comment on the drafts, and approval for publication

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Best-Practice Approaches to Characterize, Communicate, and Incorporate Scientific Uncertainty in

Decisionmaking. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 will address the issue of uncertainty and its relationship to science,

assessment, and decisionmaking. Specifically, the product has the following purposes:

1) Improve the quality and consistency of information about scientific uncertainty presented to decisionmakers and other users of

CCSP’s reports by identifying “best practice” options recommended in the literature on this subject

2) Improve communication between scientists and users of the products by providing a simple guide to interpreting information

about uncertainty contained in the reports

3) Provide a brief overview of the literature on approaches for taking account of uncertainty in decisionmaking.

The report’s “best practice” guidelines will be tailored for different types of products so that the treatment of uncertainty in CCSP

products is more systematic and helpful to users. A team of leading experts in decision and risk analysis will draft the report, supported

through NSF. Representatives of participating CCSP agencies will work with the authors to ensure that the technical advice developed

is useful and appropriate for the CCSP process.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 5.2
by the interagency governing body of CCSP, including a role for the NRC to provide

additional analysis and to bound uncertainty.These guidelines are described more

completely in the overview chapter of this report, and are available in their entirety

on the CCSP web site (see <www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-guidelines.htm>.

CCSP agencies and scientists funded by these agencies will continue to participate in

international science assessments, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report scheduled for completion in 2007, the Arctic

Climate Impact Assessment, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the International

Research Institute for Climate Prediction, and the World Meteorological Organization/

United Nations Environment Programme assessments of stratospheric ozone depletion

and associated environmental impacts.

The United States supports these assessments in a variety of ways. For example, the

U.S. Government has played an active role in the IPCC process since its inception in

1988. It continues to support the IPCC actively.The United States chairs IPCC’s

Working Group I (which focuses on the climate system) and provides support for its

Technical Support Unit.Working Group I played a lead role in the Special Report on

Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (completed in July 2005,

see <www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm>) and is currently leading development of the

science volume of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Through participation in the IPCC process, the U.S. Government helps guide

development of an important set of international assessments – including the reports

mentioned above, the impacts and response option volumes of the AR4, and a

Working Group III Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage. CCSP supports

participation of experts to serve as Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and

Review Editors of the reports and to participate in workshops that contribute to the

process. At present, 116 U.S. scientists serve as authors of the five reports under

preparation, and 15 as Review Editors. CCSP also coordinates the U.S. reviews of

draft reports at the request of the Department of State. Further information on the

IPCC can be obtained at <www.ipcc.ch>.

CCSP-supported scientists also participated in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

(ACIA), which focused on potential impacts of climate variability and change, ozone

depletion, and other interacting environmental changes on a broad range of Arctic

ecosystems, socioeconomic conditions, and natural resources. ACIA officially started in

October 2000 and was completed during fall 2004.The Arctic Council, including its

Senior Arctic Officials, provided oversight through progress reports and documentation

at Arctic Council meetings. Funding was provided to ACIA through both direct and

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indirect support from each of the eight Arctic nations. As the lead country for ACIA,

the United States provided financial support through NSF and NOAA, which allowed

the establishment of an ACIA Secretariat at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Contributions from the other Arctic countries, as well as from the United Kingdom,

supported the involvement of their citizens and provided in-kind support, such as

hosting meetings and workshops. Further information on ACIA is available at

<www.acia.uaf.edu>.

Related HCR Research on Assessment and Decision-Support Methods

CCSP is encouraging research to improve methods of assessment and decisionmaking

under uncertainty.This research examines a number of key issues including: designing

processes for assessment that effectively focus scientific analyses on decisionmaking

issues; more effectively encouraging public participation in assessments; estimating the

costs and opportunities (market and non-market) of environmental changes; improving

approaches for representing, analyzing, describing, and communicating uncertainty in

assessments; and improving understanding of climate-change related decisions under

uncertainty.

One example of this area of research is a project conducted by researchers at Harvard

University that seeks to understand and promote the design of effective systems to

harness research-based knowledge in support of decisions related to human development

and environmental stewardship.The project has found that decision-support systems

are likely to be more effective to the extent that they cultivate and protect “bridging”

or “boundary” organizations that actively promote two-way connections and dialog

between the research and applications communities (RASSP, 2003; NRC, 2005).

Highlights of Plans for FY 2006

Decision Making Under Uncertainty Program. Under its Decision Making

Under Uncertainty (DMUU) program, NSF initiated grants for five interdisciplinary

university and private sector research teams to study important aspects of problems

associated with understanding climate-related decisions under uncertainty.These teams

are expected to produce new insights of interest to the academic community, generate

significant educational benefits, and develop new tools that will benefit policymakers,

decisionmakers, and different stakeholders. In FY 2006, the DMUU research teams

will conduct integrative research on scales larger than normally would be expected

through individual research projects. In addition to conducting fundamental research,

the teams will develop tools that people, organizations, and governments can use to

better understand the risks associated with climate variability and change and the

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
options they have to address those risks; provide education and research opportunities

for U.S. students and faculty; and develop and disseminate tangible products for

researchers, decisionmakers, and other relevant stakeholders.

DMUU publications are planned for FY 2006 that will disseminate the outcomes

of a set of workshops conducted by economists examining the adequacy of the

representation of climate change uncertainties and the development of decision criteria

and analytical tools for decisionmaking in the face of these uncertainties.They will place

particular emphasis on the formulation of climate change adaptation and mitigation

response options. Also appearing in FY 2006 will be publications and web-based

products resulting from a series of workshops and seminars that bring together

researchers and practitioners for extended examination of especially promising

topics that bridge climate change and decisionmaking research and analysis, including

alternative methods for uncertainty-based analysis of climate change impacts,

vulnerability, and adaptation; analysis of greenhouse-gas emission projections and

mitigation policies under uncertainty; and the applicability and limits of the “insurance”

analogy for responding to the threat of global climate change.

This research contributes to CCSP Strategic Plan Question 9.1,

Goals 11.2 and 11.3,and Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2.

Evaluating Case Studies of Knowledge for Decisionmaking.The Knowledge

Systems project at Harvard University will synthesize insights emerging from case

studies through a series of papers addressing the principal challenges of governance

and financial arrangements; linking knowledge with decisionmaking; and facilitating

adaptive learning. A three-part special issue will be published by the Proceedings of the

National Academies with case studies and guidelines for designing effective systems to

harness research-based knowledge in support of decisions bearing on the joint goals of

human development and environmental stewardship. Findings of the Knowledge

Systems project are being extended and evaluated through a series of workshops run

in collaboration with the National Academies’ Roundtable on Science and Technology

for Sustainability, co-chaired by NOAA Deputy Administrator James Mahoney and

Stanford University Dean Pamela Matson and engaging high-level decisionmakers

from business, government, and civil society.

This research contributes to CCSP Strategic Plan Question 9.1 and Goal 11.2.

Learning from Climate Assessment. In partial fulfillment of CCSP’s commitment

to build on the “lessons learned” from earlier assessment activities, CCSP has requested

that the NRC carry out an analysis of global change assessments that have addressed

topics broadly similar to those encompassed by CCSP.This study will examine which

assessment approaches (in terms of geographic scale, scope, assessment entity, and

timing) and products are most effective for meeting CCSP’s stated objectives for

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assessments, as outlined in Chapter 11 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.The study is described

in greater detail in the introduction to this report.

This project contributes to CCSP Strategic Plan Goal 11.1.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES GOAL 2:

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT/PLANNING DECISIONS

“Adaptive management decisions” are operational decisions, principally for managing

infrastructure (e.g., wastewater treatment systems), natural resources (e.g., a watershed),

or societal response mechanisms (e.g., health alerts).They occur within existing legal

and institutional frameworks, usually recurring on annual (or shorter) time scales.

“Planning” focuses on these and additional sectors (e.g., urban or regional planning),

typically involving development of infrastructure and institutions with long lifetimes

(several decades or more), and with decision processes over long time scales (years to

decades). CCSP has adopted a distributed approach to developing these decisionsupport resources that draws on ongoing activities in contributing departments and

agencies in many sectors and settings.

CCSP research results, data products, forecasts, and model results are already being

applied to adaptive management and planning in a number of regional and sectoral

case studies. Specific examples include climate observations and projections for crop

management, water quality management, and urban planning, as well as integrated

products illustrating snowpack, precipitation, streamflow, and the potential for

drought conditions. El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts (which have demonstrated

seasonal- to biennial-scale forecast skill) have provided information for State and local

emergency preparedness organizations; water resource management plans for the

western regions; agricultural planning for the southeast; and fire management. Federal

agencies also employ decision-support tools to serve the public in local and regional

decisionmaking, including applications in the management of carbon, water, disasters,

invasive species, and coastal ecosystems along with information on public health,

agricultural efficiency, and energy use.

Developing the sophisticated types of information (integrating physical, hydrological,

ecological, demographic, and economic information) in the sustained fashion that is

often needed to make complex adaptive management and planning decisions requires

that scientists work side-by-side with managers and other stakeholders in the context

of specific decisionmaking processes.These interactions are more effective when they

occur through long-term partnerships in which targeted information is produced

through research, incrementally incorporated into decisionmaking, then updated or

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
extended through new research and information gathering. CCSP agencies are exploring

development of these sorts of research and decision-support partnerships in diverse

settings ranging from bi-national watershed planning to management of fisheries and

other biotic resources.

Related HCR Research on Adaptive Management and Planning 

Research on tools to support adaptive management and planning focuses on a variety

of topics including factors that affect the ability of societies to respond to changes in

climate and related systems and that thus influence their resilience or vulnerability.

For most types of impacts, this field of inquiry has extended scenario-based modeling

of potential impacts on natural and human systems (e.g., crops, forests, water flows,

coastal infrastructure) by integrating additional information on sensitivity and adaptability

from many sources, including operational entities, to support evaluation of responses.

For example, a high priority for research and assessment of the potential implications

of sea-level rise for the United States involves examining the interaction of sea-level

rise, elevation, and approaches in different locations to zoning and planning. Reporting

on this work is the focus of one of the CCSP synthesis and assessment products, on

coastal elevation and sea-level rise.

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Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected

Sectors and Regions. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1 will inventory and characterize the types, capacity, and reliability of

observational and other information accessible for decisionmaking as a result of U.S. investments in climate change research. It will

result in a catalog of demonstration projects and experiments for international, national, regional, and local decision-support objectives.

The product will provide detailed profiles of projects selected from among those implemented by CCSP agencies deemed to be of

significant regional or national societal benefit.The report will analyze the capacity and performance of demonstration projects that

incorporate observations from remote sensing and in situ instrumentation (including measurements related to atmospheric conditions,

climate, land-use/land-cover change, hydrology, ecosystems, and human activity) into decision-support tools.The focus of the assessments

will be expanded in a subsequent phase to include a profile of the capacity of decision processes and tools to assimilate forecasts and

projections resulting from climate change science.

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data.

Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3 will provide an evaluation of selected decision-support experiments that use seasonal-tointerannual climate information to support water management decisions.The product will explore the extent to which multidisciplinary

research, conducted in consultation with water resource managers, can be designed and implemented to result in expanded decision

options and improved management.The product will focus on the issue of water resources as an initial case study because of its

inherent importance, the broad array of ongoing projects in the field, and the maturity of interactions between researchers and water

resource managers.This product will document the experiences garnered in partnerships among scientists and stakeholders and thus

contribute to knowledge of how to effectively integrate the insights of science with the information needs of decisionmakers.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS 5.1 AND 5.3

DEVELOPING TOOLS AND METHODS TO SUPPORT ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT/PLANNING
Highlights of Recent Research

Selected examples of recent CCSP-supported research to develop decision-support

resources for adaptive management and planning follow.

Resources to Improve Drought Management.2,21 Drought is an episodic natural

disaster of potentially major proportions. Annual economic losses for the United

States can be in the range of several billion dollars. As the recent prolonged drought in

the western United States illustrates, drought impacts extend well beyond direct

effects on water quantity and quality, with potentially significant consequences for

energy generation (hydropower), agriculture, ranching, recreation and tourism, and

the health of forests, range lands, fisheries, and other ecosystems.

CCSP has been working to increase partnerships with stakeholder groups to bring

advances in climate science to bear on how society can better anticipate, prepare for,

and respond to the challenge of drought. A major focus for these efforts is a cooperative

effort led by the Western Governors’

Association (WGA), with leadership on the

Federal side from NOAA in partnership

with several other CCSP agencies

including USGS, Bureau of Reclamation,

and USDA. Other participants include

the National Interagency Fire Center, the

Western States Water Council, the

Interstate Water Council,The Nature

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Coastal Elevation and Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise. Data on the implications of sea-level rise are needed to inform decisions

about both greenhouse gas emissions and how best to prepare for and adapt to sea-level rise.This product focuses on developing tools

to support shore-protection and land-use decisions that are mostly made at the local level or on a parcel-specific basis. Many institutions

and groups are developing data that can provide insights regarding the implications of sea-level rise, but this information is fragmented

and needs to be integrated.The CCSP Strategic Plan includes two related geographic information system (GIS) products: maps of

coastal elevations relative to sea level, and planning maps depicting how State and local governments could respond to sea-level rise.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and several States are developing elevation data for

floodplain management. Local governments and major coastal conservancies are developing GIS land-use data for managing ecosystems

and economic growth.The Department of Interior develops wetland and shore-erosion data. NOAA and USGS are developing

technologies to produce digital elevation models using a common vertical reference frame, thus producing true topographic/

bathymetric map products.This report will bring together these ongoing mapping efforts by Federal and non-Federal researchers.

Because of time, data, and resource limitations, the synthesis will focus on a contiguous subsection of the U.S. coastal zone.The

report will also develop a plan for a sea-level rise research program to answer the questions that are most urgent for near-term

decisionmaking. Questions regarding the magnitude of past and future global sea-level rise are outside the scope of this report.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.1
Conservancy, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy. As a result of this

collaboration, in 2004, the WGA produced a report with unanimous approval of the

governors that describes key steps necessary to develop and implement the National

Integrated Drought Information System and what is required to move the Nation from

a reactive to a proactive approach to anticipating, preparing for, and responding to

drought and its attendant impacts (see Figure 24). CCSP-supported research is

expected to play a fundamental role in developing this new national capability, with

particular needs for improved observational, monitoring, and prediction capabilities,

and the development of new tools for decision support.

In addition, CCSP has been examining the potential implications of regional

drought on crop production. Using radar altimetry data from NASA’s TOPEX/Poseidon

and Jason-1 Earth observation spacecraft, researchers from NASA, USDA, and the

University of Maryland estimated reservoir height and water volume in approximately

100 lakes and reservoirs across the world’s major agricultural regions to determine

irrigation potential in agriculture-sensitive regions, and as a general indicator of

drought or high-water condition.The reservoir height data are used now by analysts in

the Production

Estimation and Crop

Assessment Division

of the USDA

Foreign Agriculture

Service.The World

Agricultural

Outlook Board uses

these condition

estimates in forecasts

of global agricultural

commodities that

they regularly

publish.

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Figure 24: The National Integrated Drought Information

System. The report of the Western Governors’ Association

describing the components necessary for a National

Integrated Drought Information System.

Credit: Western Governors’ Association.
Climate Change Scenarios for Water Resource Managers.6Water resource

planners are beginning to ask how climate change might affect specific water resource

systems. Reductions in mountain snowpack, which provide large amounts of natural

storage for water resource systems in regions such as the Pacific Northwest, are likely

at risk from future warming (see the “Climate Variability and Change” and “Global

Water Cycle” chapters). Estimates of future warming rates are by themselves of little

use to planners, who require watershed-specific information that they typically obtain

from simulation models based on historic streamflow data. CCSP-supported university

research scientists have found a way to bridge the gap between climate science and

traditional water planning practices, providing useful information to water managers

regarding river flow projections.These scenarios have allowed planners to compare

the impacts of warming-adjusted streamflows with those of a portion of the historic

record to see how climate change would affect their ability to meet various water

resource objectives such as urban water supply, irrigation, and hydropower.

Climate Change and Coral Bleaching: Understanding Reef Resilience for

Management Planning.19,22 Large-scale coral bleaching events have been increasing

in severity and extent over the past 2 decades.These events cannot be fully explained

by localized stressors such as pollution, and instead appear to be linked to the presence

of increased sea surface temperatures (Wilkinson, 1998;West and Salm, 2003).While

reef managers cannot directly address increases in sea surface temperature linked to

climate variability and change, they can engage in adaptive management that takes

advantage of knowledge of why some reef areas are less affected by temperature

anomalies than others.Three collaborative projects are providing information to assist

coral reef managers in the strategic design, placement, zoning, and management of

networks of marine-protected areas that maximize reef resilience in the face of climate

change.These include: (1) a project to identify environmental factors that may

increase resilience by conferring protection from bleaching or enhancing recovery

after bleaching; (2) a monitoring project in American Samoa that examines the effects

of changes in water quality and different levels of reef protection on coral bleaching

and recovery; and (3) a multi-agency cooperative that synthesizes research information

to promote adaptive management of coral reefs in response to climate change 

Use of Climate Variation to Forecast Mosquito Abundance and

Encephalitis Risk in California.1,4The amplification of encephalitis viruses to

levels that place human populations at risk of infection depends in part on temperaturerelated factors. Research is underway that uses climate forecasting at various spatial

scales to alert local and state public health officials to changing risks of encephalitis

infection. A risk model has been developed that characterizes climate factors related

to encephalitis outbreaks (e.g., indicators for rainfall, runoff, and temperature).The

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
model demonstrates that mosquito abundance patterns and associated patterns of

encephalitis risk vary spatially across the different biomes of California and show

strong links to climate variations (Barker et al., 2003).The California Mosquito-Borne

Virus Surveillance and Response Plan provides a means for estimating the risk from

two endemic encephalitides [western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) and St. Louis

encephalitis (SLE)] and describes intervention guidelines for mosquito control that

public health agencies can use during periods of heightened risk for human infection.

These risk models provide a means for calculating a risk estimate for WEE and SLE

infection and a basis for prescribing appropriate response strategies to protect public

health.

Improved Air Quality Forecasts. EPA has partnered with NASA and NOAA to

improve its air quality index for current conditions (“nowcasts”) and forecasts for the

next 30 hours by assimilating data from NASA’s Moderate-Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument flown on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft (see

<idea.ssec.wisc.edu/index.php>). EPA and NOAA signed a

cooperative agreement in May 2003 to coordinate the development

of air quality forecast guidance.The improved forecasts of air quality

and pollution are integrated into a prototype tool that is delivered

via the internet (see <www.epa.gov/airnow>). EPA recently

integrated the prototype tool into its AIRNow Forecaster Training

Workshops, providing training to over 200 air quality forecasting

professionals throughout the country. Air quality information is

not only important for health-advisory purposes; aerosols (fine

particles), tropospheric ozone, and other short-lived air pollutants

are also recognized as potential climate forcing agents.

Decision-Support Resources for Ecosystem and Carbon Management

Applications.15 Researchers evaluated results from an integrated model and decisionsupport tools that help inform decisions related to ecosystem and carbon management.

Using vegetation data from MODIS instruments on board the Terra and Aqua spacecraft,

NASA’s Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model predicts photosynthesis

rates, the amount of vegetation and living organisms within a unit area, and estimates

of organic matter that forms the litter layer in soil.The Carbon Query and Evaluation

Support Tools (CQUEST) tool provides Internet access for decisionmakers to display,

manipulate, and save CASA model estimates of carbon sinks [reservoirs that absorb and

store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere] and CO2 fluctuations in agricultural

and forest ecosystems for locations anywhere in the United States (see <geo.arc.nasa.gov/

website/cquestwebsite>). USDA Forest Service is currently evaluating CQUEST for

monitoring carbon sequestration and loss through forest disturbance and regrowth.

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Climate Variability and Fires.3,7,10,17,18,20 Climate connections to fire severity

appear to occur through the effects of varying moisture patterns in producing higher

or lower than normal amounts of grass in the preceding 2 years, and from the dryness

of the vegetation. CCSP-supported scientists are studying these climate and wildfire

interactions on a regional scale for the western United States (Roads et al., 2004;

Reinbold et al., 2004), and developing long-lead forecasts for use by wildfire managers

(Brown et al., 2003).Westerling et al. (2002) compiled a comprehensive 21-year fire

history for the western United States to facilitate climate-based predictions of the

potential severity of the fire season several months in advance. Numerous steps are

being taken to bring this scientific information to relevant decisionmakers. For example,

two workshops are held each year – one focused on eastern and southern states and the

other on western states and Alaska – involving climate scientists and wildfire managers

(e.g., the National Interagency Fire Center) to provide and discuss the climate outlook

for the upcoming fire season (Lenart et al., 2005; Garfin et al., 2004). Further

information on these workshops may be obtained from <www.ispe.arizona.edu/

climas/conferences/NSAW/index.html>.

Famine Early Warning System Network.The United States supports the innovative

application of science to alleviate risks related to existing climate variability or the

potential for climate change through the Famine Early Warning System Network

(FEWS NET; see <www.fews.net>). FEWS NET provides decisionmakers with the

information to respond effectively to drought and food insecurity by analyzing remotesensing data and ground-based meteorological, crop, and rangeland observations to

identify early indications of potential famine. In addition to using data produced by

host governments for its analyses, FEWS NET uses data from satellite imagery

[Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or “greenness” images and Meteosat

Rainfall Estimation images] that it receives every 10 days throughout the year. FEWS

NET operates in 20 countries in Africa, three countries in Central America, and in

Haiti and Afghanistan.

Highlights of Plans for FY 2006

In FY 2006, CCSP participating agencies will sponsor research to develop decisionsupport resources for adaptive management and planning for responding to climate

variability and change, and develop collaborations to apply these research-based

resources in operational settings. Selected examples follow.

Use of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information. Research on the use of

seasonal-to-interannual climate information will focus on mitigating the impacts of

short- and long-term droughts, as well as assessing risks involved in upcoming wildfire

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
seasons.Work will be aimed at water management, wildfire management, and drought

planning, and will emphasize how scientific information about climate and drought

impacts can be used to inform decisionmaking at State, regional, and national levels.

Through the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, two

workshops with researchers and fire managers will be held in 2006 to assess upcoming

fire seasons and plan more effectively. Several workshops with local and State water

managers will also be held in the western United States in 2006. In addition, the

recently initiated NOAA Climate Transition Program will review a round of proposals

in early FY 2006 to address the increasingly important challenge of applying decisionrelevant climate research in operational settings. Operational settings include, but are

not limited to, water management agencies, fisheries councils, disaster management

offices, and weather service field offices.

These activities will address Question 9.2 and Goal 11.2 (Objective 2.2)

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Early Snowmelt Discharge and its Effects on Water Resources in the

Western United States. Research in the USGS Earth Surface Dynamics Program

will address the implications of climate-induced early snowmelt discharge and its

effects on water resources in the western United States. A decision-support system

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The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program is composed of eight teams of researchers who investigate the potential

impacts of seasonal-to-interannual and longer term global change, and collaborate with local, State, and Federal agencies tasked with specific

resource management mandates.Through a process of interaction with key regional stakeholders – such as public health agencies, water

resource managers, fishers, extension agents, and farmers – researchers address climate-sensitive issues relevant to a variety of policy and

natural resource management goals. Findings from RISA activities and the development of experimental decision-support tools are proving

highly valuable in a range of practical settings. Examples of research-based products include:

• The incorporation of model-based climate information into the production of regional maps for fire risk and forest management

(Lenart et al., 2005)

• Snow-water equivalent forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Delta watershed that have been used by CALFED – a consortium of 23

Federal and State agencies that are collaborating to restore the San Francisco Bay estuary and an adjacent major inland delta – in efforts

to determine trends in water supply and demand (Dettinger et al., 2004)

• Long-lead streamflow forecasts for water resource planning associated with the Columbia River (Hamlet et al., 2002)

• AgClimate, a web-based decision-support system to help farmers manage risks associated with climate variability (<agclimate.org>)

• University curricula for the multidisciplinary study of climate impacts and policy response, used to educate the next generation of

students of public policy and resource management (<www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/classes.shtml>).

Meeting the climate information needs of decisionmakers is a major challenge. In addition to mastering the ability to observe, understand,

and simulate continental- and global-scale processes, the ultimate utility of this work hinges on making the connection between regional

variability and humans or ecosystems. Regionally based programs, such as RISA, utilize studies of the application of climate information and

rely on human-dimensions research to strengthen the theoretical foundations of decision support.

These activities address Question 9.2 and Goal 11.2 (Objective 2.1) of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESEARCH: BRIDGING SCIENCE AND SERVICE

THE REGIONAL INTEGRATED SCIENCES AND ASSESSMENTS PROGRAM
(DSS) will be developed to evaluate the risks associated with management choices in

the face of climate variability, with a focus on sample reservoir systems on the western

slope of the Sierra Nevada.The research will compare the economic efficiency of

managing reservoirs with and without better data, models, and predictive capacity,

and will estimate the value of improved forecasts of water resource availability in the

Sierra Nevada under changing climatic conditions using the DSS. Further research will

evaluate the tradeoff between the cost to a decisionmaker of an inaccurate climate

policy, management, or investment decision and the cost to the decisionmaker of

seeking a better decision.

These activities will address Questions 4.2, 4.5, 5.5, and 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Decision Support for Public Health Decisionmakers. Several 3-year research

projects will address how climate change and health impact studies can be transformed

into information useful to public health decisionmakers.The studies will employ

partnerships between researchers and decisionmakers in the public health arena (see

<es.epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2005/2005_decision_support_sys.html>). Additional studies

will address two priority research areas: (1) heat- and cold-related illnesses, and (2)

waterborne diseases. A better understanding of the consequences of climate variability

and change for human health will be useful for State and local public health agencies’

efforts to ameliorate these effects (see <es.epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2005/

2005_hsa_impacts_research.html>).

These activities will address Question 9.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Coastal Elevation Maps and State and Local Plans for Sea-Level Rise.

Coastal elevation maps that depict areas vulnerable to sea-level rise are being produced

by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,

EPA, NOAA, USGS, and several States. Planning maps are being created by EPA that

synthesize current State and local baseline plans for sea-level rise along the U.S.

Atlantic Coast.This work improves understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of

coastal ecosystems and human systems and provides resources to support coastal zone

environmental and infrastructure-related decisionmaking.These maps will synthesize

current State and local coastal policies along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast.

Conservation officials will be able to use the maps to determine whether current

policies ensure sufficient wetland migration, and identify areas where additional

wetland migration is feasible. Local governments can focus infrastructure in areas

where shores are certain to be protected. Ecologists studying potential environmental

consequences of climate change will have a better idea whether tidal habitat will shift

inland or be replaced with seawalls. During FY 2005-2006, existing draft maps that

have already been reviewed by local stakeholders in mid-Atlantic cities and counties

will be peer-reviewed and published, and new maps will be created along the south

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
Atlantic and New England Coasts, as well as the Gulf Coast of Florida.This work will

support preparation of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1.

These activities will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Early Warning System for the Rapid Identification of Health Threats.12

Scientists plan measurable enhancements to the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network/Health and

Environment Linked for Information Exchange (EPHTN/HELIX) decision-support

system using NASA Earth-Sun System research results.This epidemiological surveillance

decision-support system is designed to establish a national network of local, State, and

Federal public health agencies that tracks trends in priority chronic diseases. Planned

to be fully functional around 2009, the EPHTN will be a national early warning system

for the rapid identification of health threats, such as toxic chemical releases. Earth

science results provide valuable information on the environmental contribution to

chronic diseases, and forecasts based on coupled Earth system-chronic disease models.

The plan for 2006 includes determining the performance of the EPHTN/HELIX

decision-support tool configured to assimilate observations from NASA Earth-observing

sensors MODIS and ASTER, and forecasts of Earth system processes from the Large

Scale Eddy Simulation Model.This work will enhance the ability of the EPHTN/HELIX

surveillance system to assimilate observations and predictions of weather, climate, and

environmental risk factors to predict disease events and to more accurately represent

environmental risk factors.

This activity addresses Questions/Goals 9.3, 9.4, 11.1, and 11.2

of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. NASA, USAID, the World Bank, and the

Central American Commission for Environment and Development are partnering to

develop a regional visualization and monitoring system.The Central America

Monitoring and Visualization System (SERVIR) is a decision-support tool that will

assist the seven nations of Central America in developing a Mesoamerican Biological

Corridor extending from southern Mexico to the Colombian border. SERVIR uses

assimilated remote-sensing Earth observations of environmental and other geophysical

parameters in a geographic information system that generates visualization products

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for decisionmakers to aid in ecosystem management. SERVIR’s users are government

policymakers and natural resource managers, nongovernmental organizations, teachers,

students, and the general public. Specific decision-support products include fire

detection, red tide location, hurricane tracking, food security early warning system,

and climate change modeling.These products reach users through a series of information

nodes located in each of the participating countries. More information on SERVIR is

available at <servir.nsstc.nasa.gov/home.html>.

This activity supports Questions 8.1, 8.2, and 8.3,

as well as Goals 11.1 and 11.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES GOAL 3:

POLICY DECISIONS

“Policy decisions” can result in laws, regulations, and other public actions.These

decisions are typically made in government settings by elected or appointed officials.

Policy-related questions regarding climate change typically arise from numerous

sources, for example from:

• Consideration of climate change policy within the Federal government

• Proposals advanced by private and non-governmental organizations

• Preparation for international negotiations

• Consideration of legislative proposals

• Priority-setting processes for science and technology programs.

As described in the CCSP Strategic Plan, CCSP is focusing on two objectives in this area:

(1) developing scientific syntheses and analytical frameworks to support integrated

evaluations, and (2) initially conducting a limited number of case studies with evaluation

of the lessons learned to guide future analyses.

CCSP supports the development of a number of integrated modeling frameworks that

are useful for exploring many dimensions of climate and global change. Integrated

analysis of climate change is essential for bringing together research from many

contributing disciplines and applying it to gain comparative insight into policy-related

questions. Full integration of information including research on human activities,

greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, land-use and land-cover change, cycling of carbon

and other nutrients, climatic responses, and impacts on people, the economy, and

resources is necessary for analysis of many important questions about the potential

economic and environmental implications of changing greenhouse gas concentrations

and various technology portfolios. Development and use of techniques for scenario and

comparative analysis are useful for exploring the implications of different hypothetical

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
policies for curbing emissions growth or encouraging adaptation. Answers from

integrated analysis can only reflect the existing state of knowledge in component studies,

but it is important to develop frameworks and resources for integration, exercise

them, and learn from analysis of the results. CCSP is encouraging innovation and

development of approaches to integrated analysis.

An integrated assessment of climate change analyzes the human (including economic),

physical, and biological aspects of climate change, from the forces that give rise to

greenhouse gas emissions or land-cover/land-use change (such as economic activity,

population and demographic change, and technological advance), through emissions,

to impacts (such as changes in unmanaged ecosystems, sea-level rise, and altered

growing conditions for crops).The primary emphasis in an integrated assessment is to

represent all three aspects in such a way that the costs and benefits of climate change

can be evaluated. Integrated assessments are commonly based on scenarios simulated

using a computer model. Integrated assessment models are used to evaluate, for

example, specific climate change policy options, including those for reducing

greenhouse gas emissions.

Under CCSP, the DOE Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Research Program

sponsors academic investigators who examine individual research topics using integrated

assessment models. DOE sponsors the development of several integrated assessment

models, and EPA, NOAA, and NSF sponsor additional studies that improve aspects of

models and allow for the use of the models for particular investigations.Two major

integrated assessment modeling teams are supported – one at the Massachusetts

Institute of Technology and the other at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

CCSP does not make policy recommendations. Instead, it supports fundamental

research that provides necessary objective background understanding for others to

analyze policy questions and make policy recommendations.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

The schematic illustrates the framework and components of a typical integrated assessment model.This particular model was developed by

the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (see <mit.edu/globalchange/www/if.html>). An economic model (often a general equilibrium

model) provides emission scenarios, which are used as inputs to atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Outputs from the atmospheric

models are used as inputs to models that evaluate the impact of potential future climate change on agricultural, ecosystem, and other sectors.

For example, in the schematic the climate model outputs drive a terrestrial ecosystems model projecting land vegetation changes, land CO2

fluxes, and carbon storage, which feed back to the coupled chemistry/climate and natural emissions models.There are a variety of feedbacks

between the component models. In view of the large number of analytical elements in an integrated assessment model, each with its own

uncertainties, the outcomes of these models must be carefully evaluated for their overall uncertainties.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS

EARTH SYSTEM

c oupled ocean, atmosphere, and la n d

sunlight, water cycles, energy and momentum

transfers, air and sea temperatures, CO2, CH4,

N2O, nutrients, pollutants, soil properties, surface

albedo, sea-ice coverage, oceanic CO2 uptake,

land CO 2 uptake, vegetation change, ....

EARTH SYSTEM

c oupled ocean, atmosphere, and la n d

sunlight, water cycles, energy and momentum

transfers, air and sea temperatures, CO2, CH4,

N2O, nutrients, pollutants, soil properties, surface

albedo, sea-ice coverage, oceanic CO2 uptake,

land CO 2 uptake, vegetation change, ....

E

XA

M

P

L

E

S

O

F

M

O

D

E

L

O

U

T

P

U

T

S

GDP growth,

energy use, policy

costs, agriculture

and health

impacts, ....

global mean and

latitudinal

temperature

and precipitation,

sea-level rise,

sea-ice cover,

greenhouse gas

concentrations, air

pollution levels, ....

soil and vegetative

carbon, net

primary productivity,

trace gas emissions

from ecosystems,

permafrost

area, ....

Solar

Forcing

Volcanic

Forcing

3D Oceanic

Dynamical,

Biological,

Chemical, and

Ice Processes

[MITgcm]

Land

Water, Snow,

and Energy

Budgets

[CLM]

Terrestrial

Ecosystems

Dynamical and

Biogeochemical

Processes

[TEM]

2D Atmospheric

Dynamical and

Chemical Processes

[2D-LO]

Urban Air Pollution

Processes

Human Health Effects

Agriculture

and Ecosystems

Net Carbon Exchange,

Net Primary Productivity

Land-Use Change

Sea-Level

Change

Human Activity [EPPA]

National and/or Regional

Economic Development,

Emissions, Land Use

CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3,

CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, ....
An initial case study of the application of integrated assessment tools is being undertaken

in Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1. Other case studies focus on practices to

increase soil carbon levels and transportation policy options for responding to climate

change, as follows.

Alternative Incentive Designs for Practices to Raise Soil Carbon Levels.11

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases can be reduced by withdrawing carbon

from the atmosphere and sequestering it in soils and biomass. Research analyzed the

performance of alternative incentive designs and payment levels if farmers were paid

to adopt land uses and management practices that raise soil carbon levels.

Transportation Policy Options for Responding to Climate Change. Under a

new study, Climate Change and U.S.Transportation, the Transportation Research Board

(TRB) and the Division of Earth and Life Sciences of the National Academies will

evaluate transportation policy options for adapting to the potential impacts of climate

change, and examine strategies to mitigate future climate impacts. DOT, EPA, the

U.S.Army Corps of Engineers, and TRB (including the American Association of State

and Highway Officials and the Transit Cooperative Research Program) are sponsoring

the study, which will include as a centerpiece a major conference with commissioned

papers that is designed to foster and expand dialog and awareness about the potential

risks and consequences of climate change. A committee of experts assembled for this

effort will issue a report with findings and recommendations regarding needed

research and actions.

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Updating Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations, in Collaboration with the Climate Change

Technology Program (CCTP): Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application. Scenario analysis is a widely used

intellectual device for decisionmaking in complex and uncertain situations. Scenarios have been applied extensively in the climate change

context. Examples include emissions scenarios, climate scenarios, and technology scenarios. Scenarios are not predictions; they are

“what ifs?” – sketches of future conditions (or alternative sets of future conditions) – used as inputs to decisionmaking or analysis exercises.

Synthesis and Assesssment Product 2.1 has two components. Part A will use integrated assessment models as the foundation for a small group

of new global emissions scenarios leading to long-term stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations.These new scenarios will incorporate

lessons from previous scenario efforts and will be based on the evolving state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modeling.The scenarios are

intended for policymakers and analysts, such as the technology analysts in the CCTP, who may benefit from enhanced understanding of the

role of technology in stabilization; other decisionmakers or analysts, such as climate modelers, who may use the data outputs of the scenarios

as inputs to analyses (e.g., climate modelers might use the emissions trajectories as inputs to climate models); and analysts or decisionmakers

who may use the participating integrated assessment models to generate additional analyses, using the scenarios as a foundation (e.g., using

the integrated assessment models to explore the implications of various additional scenarios of technological advance). Part B will review

and evaluate how the science and stakeholder communities define, develop, implement, and communicate scenarios in the global climate

change context, and how this process might be enhanced or improved.This will include a review of past scenario development and application

efforts.The intent of the review is to inform preparation and application of future scenarios by CCSP, the IPCC, the CCTP, and other global

change research and assessment organizations.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 2.1
HCR Research on Human Contributions to Global Change:

Relevance to Informing Policy Inquiries

Research on human contributions to global change can have direct bearing on the

development of decision-support resources and methods for informing climate change

policymaking (i.e., Decision-Support Goal 3; see chapter banner).This work draws

upon analyses of fundamental socioeconomic processes and spans a range of disciplines

and topics, including demography, economics, history, anthropology, political science,

and engineering.This research examines factors affecting greenhouse gas emissions

(e.g., energy use) and changes in land use and land cover. Recent research has also

focused on the factors that affect environmentally significant consumption at the

household level, as well as on understanding trends in innovation, efficiency, and living

standards, and their implications for energy use, emissions, and land-use/land-cover

change.

For example, research on demographic and energy data in China, the United States,

and Indonesia used household surveys and disaggregated energy use data to improve

the prediction of energy use by fuel type.The research is designed to provide data and

information on the demographic and technology factors that drive energy use and the

associated emissions of greenhouse gases in three case-study countries that have large

populations and are currently or will soon become major global sources of greenhouse

gas emissions. One example of results from this research to date is evidence that the

shift in rural China and elsewhere from the use of traditional fuels such as firewood

for home heating and cooking to commercial fuels such as fossil fuels may not be as

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure. A sound transportation system is

vital to the Nation’s social and economic future. Investments in transportation are substantial, and result in infrastructure that lasts for

decades.This product will investigate the potential impacts of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and operation,

and provide guidance as to how transportation planners and decisionmakers may incorporate this information into transportation planning,

design, engineering, and operational decisions to ensure a reliable and robust future transportation network. Implications for all transportation

modes – surface, marine, and aviation – will be addressed.This initial study will focus on the potential effects of climate variability and

change on transportation infrastructure and systems in the central U.S. Gulf Coast. It will also include a review of knowledge of the potential

impacts of climate change on national transportation systems.

The three-phase study will:

• Develop knowledge about potential transportation infrastructure sensitivities to climate variability and change through an indepth

synthesis and analysis of existing data and trends

• Assess the potential significance of these sensitivities to transportation decisionmakers in the central U.S. Gulf Coast region

• Identify potential strategies for adaptation that will reduce risks and enhance the resilience of transportation infrastructure and services

• Identify or develop decision-support tools or procedures that enable transportation decisionmakers to integrate information about climate

variability and change into existing transportation planning and design processes.

SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCT 4.7
sensitive to income level as previously assumed and therefore may occur somewhat

more slowly than commonly thought (Jiang and O’Neill, 2004).

In another example, researchers from the Center for the Study of Institutions,

Population, and Environmental Change at Indiana University working in Brazil have

extended consideration of the role of household demography in land-use decisions

(Deadman et al., 2004).They used a household life-cycle model that examined the

relationships between household age and land use and between time since acquisition

of the property and land use in regions around the Brazilian cities of Altamira and

Santarém.The researchers found that in Altamira, younger households deforest at

higher rates, whereas older households, which may have undergone earlier episodes of

deforestation, tend to consolidate into perennials and pasture. In Santarém, a study

area with a much longer but less planned settlement history, the age of the household

showed no relationship with land use. In both locations, the time since acquisition of

the lot was more strongly related to deforestation than household age (even in

Altamira), suggesting that lot turnover is in fact a key driver of land-use change in

both locations.

Highlights of Plans for FY 2006

Integrated Assessment of Aerosol Production, Effects, and Control. In

FY 2006, Argonne National Laboratory will develop new estimates of future aerosol

emissions for sulfur and carbonaceous aerosols.This work will address technology

types not often considered in forecasting models, such as cookstoves in developing

countries. Other researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology will

investigate aerosol effects on radiation absorption and reflection and on the hydrologic

cycle by analyzing the economics of aerosol production and control, the atmospheric

chemistry and radiation effects of these substances, and the interaction with terrestrial

systems (including hydrological effects).These studies are supported by the DOE

integrated assessment (IA) program.

This work will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Representation of Uncertainty in Emission Scenarios for Integrated

Assessment of Climate Change. In FY 2006, researchers at the University of

North Carolina, as a part of the DOE IA program, will contribute data and methods

to support improved representation of uncertainty in the future development of

emission scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change and other purposes.

Historical data on energy use will be used to characterize uncertainties in measures of

substitution between energy and other inputs such as capital and labor. Probabilistic

scenarios of emissions will be explored by propagating uncertainty in emissions

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through a climate-chemistry model and testing various criteria for selecting a small

number of emissions scenarios that span the scenario probability space.

This work addresses Question 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan,

and will support Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1.

Integrated Assessment of Climate, Land and Water Resources, and

Economic Activity.Throughout the last decade, USDA’s Economic Research

Service (ERS) has analyzed how global changes might affect long-term agricultural

and environmental sustainability. For much of this research, ERS has relied on the

Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM), an integrated modeling framework.

FARM has been used primarily to analyze the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on

agriculture, but has also been used to explore other topics such as costs of sea-level

rise, the effects of trade deregulation and population growth on tropical forests, the

costs of protecting global ecosystem diversity, and the impacts of technological

advance in agriculture on land use. ERS has initiated the Economic Evaluation of

Changes in Earth’s Land and Water Resources Project to revise the FARM modeling

framework. A revised, documented database and a user manual for a prototypical

revised model will be available to the public in FY 2006.The new modeling framework

itself will assist researchers and decisionmakers in addressing questions from the

CCSP Strategic Plan related to water resources, land-use and land-cover changes,

ecosystems, and human contributions and responses to environmental change.

This activity will directly address Goal 11.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

1) Barker, C.M.,W.K. Reisen, and V.L. Kramer, 2003: California state Mosquito-Borne Virus

Surveillance and Response Plan: A retrospective evaluation using conditional simulations. American

Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 68(5), 508-518.

2) Birkett, C. and B. Doorn, 2003: A new remote-sensing tool for water resources management.

EOM, 13(6), 20-21.

3) Brown,T.J., A. Barnston, J.O. Roads, R. Martin, and K.E.Wolter, 2003: 2003 Seasonal consensus

climate forecasts for wildland fire management. Experimental Long-Lead Forecasts Bulletin, 12(1),

6 pp.

4) California Department of Health Services, 2004: California State Mosquito Borne Virus and

Surveillance Response. <http://westnile.ca.gov/website/publications/ca_mos_res_6_04.pdf>

5) Deadman, P.J., D.T. Robinson, E. Moran, and E. Brondizio, 2004: Effects of colonist household

structure on land use change in the Amazon rainforest: An agent based simulation approach.

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31, 693-709.

6) Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan, M.K. Meyer, and A.E. Jeton, 2004: Simulated hydrologic responses

to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra

Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change, 62, 283-317.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES

CHAPTER REFERENCES
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7) Garfin, G.M.,T. Brown, R. Ochoa, and H. Hockenberry. 2004. National Seasonal Assessment

Workshop:Western States and Alaska, Phoenix,AZ, March 30-April 2, 2004. Final Report. CLIMAS/ISPE,

Tucson, 18 pp.

8) Hamlet, A.F., D. Huppert, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2002: Economic value of long-lead streamflow

forecasts for Columbia River hydropower. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,

128(2), 91-101.

9) Jiang, L. and B.C. O’Neill, 2004:The energy transition in rural China. International Journal of

Global Energy Issues, 21(1/2), 2-26.

10) Lenart, M.,T. Brown, H. Hockenberry, and G. Garfin, 2005: National Seasonal Assessment Workshop:

Eastern and Southern States, Shepherdstown,WV, January 19-21, 2005. Final report. CLIMAS/ISPE,

Tucson, 31 pp.

11) Lewandrowski, J., C. Jones, R. House, M. Peters, M. Sperow, M. Eve, and K. Paustian, 2004:

Economics of Sequestering Carbon in the U.S.Agricultural Sector. U.S. Department of Agriculture,

Economic Research Service Technical Bulletin No. 1909,Washington, DC.

12) NASA, 2005: Earth-Sun System Applied Sciences Program: Public Health Program Element FY 2005-2009

Plan, National Aeronautics and Space Administration,Washington, DC, 23 pp. Available at

<aiwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/esappdocs/progplans/ph_ver1-0.doc>

13) NRC, 2005: Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting: Summary of a

Workshop [Cash, D. and J. Buizer (eds.)]. National Research Council, National Academies of

Science, National Academies Press,Washington, D.C., 32 pp.

14) NRC, 2001: Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Committee on the Science of

Climate Change, National Research Council, National Academy Press,Washington, DC, USA,

42 pp.

15) Potter, C., S. Klooster,V. Genovese, and R. Myneni, 2003: Satellite data helps predict terrestrial

carbon sinks. EOS Transactions, 84, 502-508.

16) RASSP, 2003: Science and technology for sustainable development (Research and Assessment

Systems for Sustainability Program). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Special Feature,

100(14), 8059-8091.

17) Reinbold, H.J., J. Roads, and T.J. Brown, 2004: Evaluation of ECPC’s fire danger forecasts using

RAWS observations. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 14, 19-36.

18) Roads, J., F. Fujioka, S. Chen, and R. Burgan, 2005: Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA.

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Special Issue: Fire and Forest Meteorology, 14(1), 1-18.

19) West, J.M. and R.V. Salm, 2003: Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for

coral reef conservation and management. Conservation Biology, 17(4), 956-967.

20) Westerling, A., A. Gershunov, D. Cayan, and T. Barnett, 2002: Long lead statistical forecasts of

area burned in western US wildfires by ecosystem province. International Journal of Wildland Fire,

11, 257-266.

21) Western Governors’ Association, 2004: Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st

Century:The National Integrated Drought Information System.Western Governors’ Association, Denver,

Colorado, USA. Available at <www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf>.

22) Wilkinson, C. (ed.), 1998: Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 1998. Australian Institute of Marine

Science, Queensland, Australia, 184 pp.

DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES

CHAPTER REFERENCES (CONTINUED)
8 Observing and Monitoring

the Climate System

The CCSP Strategic Plan identifies two overarching questions for “Observing and

Monitoring the Climate System” (Chapter 12) and “Data Management and

Information” (Chapter 13):

• How can we provide active stewardship for an observation system that will document

the evolving state of the climate system, allow for improved understanding of its

changes, and contribute to improved predictive capability for society?

• How can we provide seamless, platform-independent, timely, and open access to

integrated data, products, information, and tools with sufficient accuracy and

precision to address climate and associated global changes?

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

Goal 12.1: Design, develop, deploy, and integrate

observation components into a comprehensive system.

Goal 12.2: Accelerate the development and deployment of

observing and monitoring elements needed for decision

support.

Goal 12.3: Provide stewardship of the observing system.

Goal 12.4: Integrate modeling activities with the observing

system.

Goal 12.5: Foster international cooperation to develop a

complete global observing system.

Goal 12.6: Manage the observing system with an effective

interagency structure.

Data Management and Information

Goal 13.1: Collect and manage data in multiple locations.

Goal 13.2: Enable users to discover and access data and

information via the Internet.

Goal 13.3: Develop integrated information data products for scientists and

decisionmakers.

Goal 13.4: Preserve data.

See Chapters 12 and 13 of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for detailed discussion of these goals.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
The United States is contributing to the development and operation of several global

observing systems that collectively attempt to combine data streams from both research

and operational observing platforms to provide a comprehensive measure of climate

system variability and climate change processes.These systems provide a baseline Earthobserving system and include NASA, NOAA, and USGS Earth-observing satellites and

extensive in situ observational capabilities. U.S. observational and monitoring activities

contribute significantly to several international observing systems including the Global

Climate Observing System principally sponsored by the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO); the Global Ocean Observing System sponsored by the United

Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission; and the Global Terrestrial Observing System sponsored

by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.The latter two have climaterelated elements being developed jointly with the Global Climate Observing System.

The United States is also playing an important role in the

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),

which is an international framework for coordinating and

sustaining the aforementioned (and other) systems.

Information from GEOSS is expected to revolutionize

understanding of the Earth and how Earth observations

may benefit society. A 10-year implementation plan for

GEOSS was adopted in February 2005 by nearly

60 countries, including the United States (see

<earthobservations.org> for a copy of this plan, as well

as other information on GEOSS).The United States

Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) has drafted a

strategic plan for integrated Earth observations, which

contributes directly to GEOSS. CCSP coordinates

USGEO’s climate and global change-related activities.

USGEO is focusing on the following areas, many of which

are directly or indirectly related to CCSP: understanding,

assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate

variability and change; weather forecasting; reducing loss

of life and property from disasters; protecting and

monitoring ocean resources; supporting sustainable

agriculture and combating land degradation; understanding

the effect of environmental factors on human health and

well-being; developing the capacity to make ecological

forecasts; protecting and monitoring water resources;

and monitoring and managing energy resources.

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A critical challenge is to maintain existing observing capabilities in areas of importance

to CCSP. For example, maintenance of the observational record of stratospheric ozone

is essential to discern the nature and timing of expected ozone recovery. Other key

variables requiring maintenance include radiative energy fluxes of the Sun and Earth,

atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and global surface temperature.The

long-term record of global land cover begun by Landsat-1 in 1972 and continued into

2003 by Landsat-7, ended with a mechanical failure in Landsat-7 on 31 May 2003.

While Landsat-7 data are still being collected, 20% of the data contain holes and are

not useable for scientific study.While scientists are looking to use other U.S. and

international satellite instruments to provide interim land-cover data, a recognized need

exists to ensure the continuing availability of high-quality land-cover measurements

into the future.The details of an observing strategy to meet this requirement are

under serious discussion now within the U.S. Government.The record of precipitation

that has in recent years been extended to include oceanic as well as land areas using

measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is clearly a key

climate data set that needs to be maintained and extended.These few examples of key

climate variables are essential elements of the comprehensive observing system needed

to monitor changes in the cycles of carbon, energy, water, and related biogeochemical

processes that drive Earth’s climate. Since the value of existing climate data sets

greatly increases as the record is extended in time, it is imperative that existing

observing capabilities be maintained and improved, while at the same time incorporating

new requirements.

One of the priorities for observations and monitoring in FY 2006 is to further define

the U.S. role in GEOSS, including the development of an information management

system to help integrate the system’s distributed resources. Another priority is to

enhance observational capabilities in polar regions, both through remote sensing and

in situ approaches. Observations of aerosols, including the Atmospheric Brown Cloud

project (described in this chapter) and approaches outlined in the “Atmospheric

Composition” chapter of this report, are also a priority. Improving understanding of

the carbon cycle, which CCSP has identified as a near-term priority, will be facilitated

by enhanced observations in FY 2006 and beyond. A longer list of some of the

planned observational and monitoring activities is provided in the latter portion of this

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
chapter. Data management and distribution activities, including those mentioned in

the box on “Systems for Data Management and Distribution,” will play a key role in

making accessible the information necessary to fulfill CCSP’s mission to provide the

“Nation and the global community with the science-based knowledge to manage the

risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems.”

Many measurement and monitoring technologies and derived data systems benefit

from the ongoing research and development under the aegis of CCSP, and from other

Earth observation activities that are currently underway. All such measurement and

monitoring systems constitute an important component of and complement to the

measurement and monitoring research and development portfolio of the Climate Change

Technology Program (CCTP). For additional information on CCTP measurement and

monitoring research and development activities, see <www.climatetechnology.gov>.

HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT ACTIVITIES

AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS

The following are selected highlights of observations and monitoring activities

supported by CCSP participating agencies.The principal focus of this chapter is on

describing progress in implementing the observations that contribute to the CCSP

mission. As a result, the chapter touches on some observing systems that are crucial to

CCSP but are not included within the CCSP budget because they primarily serve

other purposes.

Observations and Monitoring

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). GCOS integrates global networks

placed strategically across the atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial domains, permitting

better understanding of climate variability and change. In recent years, GCOS has

accomplished a number of positive actions on international, regional, and bilateral

levels that have led to success in improving climate observations worldwide. A number

of workshops have been held in developing nations, highlighting the importance of

GCOS observations.These workshops have resulted in a series of regional action plans

that will help guide observational improvements in these regions. Spearheaded by the

United States, a GCOS Cooperation Mechanism has been established to leverage the

resources of developed nations to ensure that dormant GCOS network stations begin

to be retrofitted.This will facilitate the collection of valuable surface and upper air

data used in climate studies (see, e.g., CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1,

which is briefly described in the “Climate Variability and Change” chapter.).

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Key ocean observations are being made by the United States that are important to

both science and society.They include sea level observations, measured using tide gauge

stations and satellite observations; ocean carbon sources and sinks; ocean storage and

global transport of heat and fresh water; and exchange of heat and fresh water

between the ocean and atmosphere.To collect data on these variables, it is necessary

to enhance the in situ component of the global ocean observing system, including an

array of sensors situated across the global oceans.The number of instruments being

deployed in the oceanic observing networks is increasing steadily.

The United States has a three-tiered approach to in situ land-surface climate

observations. In the first tier, a few sites, such as the Atmospheric Radiation Program

sites, are heavily instrumented, providing a vast array of high-quality, frequent

observations of virtually all key variables measurable from the surface.The second

tier, known as the Climate Reference Network (CRN), will include more than 100

sites that make long-term, homogeneous observations of temperature and precipitation

(and a few other variables) that can be coupled to long-term historical observations

for the detection and attribution of present and future climate change.The third tier,

which provides greater spatial coverage than the CRN, is composed of more than

1,000 stations in the existing Historical Climatology Network, selected based on

homogeneity and quality standards.This tiered approach provides the spatial coverage

necessary to detect regional climate variability and change, as well as the quality

controls necessary to ensure that the observations are as bias-free as possible. U.S.

contributions to GCOS also include ecosystem, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and

atmospheric composition measurements.

Atmospheric Brown Cloud Project. Satellite data reveal thick, polluted layers of

haze scattered all over the globe. From populated regions to the once pristine Pacific

and Atlantic Oceans, atmospheric brown clouds (visible areas of brown-colored

atmosphere) form across the United States, southern Europe, the Amazon, southern

Africa, and most of Southeast Asia.Through observations and analyses of atmospheric

brown clouds, scientists can learn how dust and pollution particles are transported

and what their impacts are on the environment, climate, agricultural cycles, and quality

of life.The aim of the Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) project is to integrate air

pollution and climate science, using observations (see Figure 25) and impacts modeling

and assessment, in order to enhance the scientific basis for informed decisionmaking.

ABC is focusing initially on the Indo-Asian and Pacific regions. A primary thrust of

ABC is to assess the impact of air pollution and greenhouse gases on the Asian

monsoon, which brings much needed rainfall to over 3 billion people in this region.

The ABC project was initiated in 2003 as a long-term multinational effort being

carried out under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme and

the WMO. DOE, NASA, and NOAA support the U.S. component of the project, with

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participation by several universities. Global Atmosphere Watch, the atmospheric

chemistry component of GCOS, will provide observing stations to be used as platforms

for the measurement of aerosols and atmospheric chemical composition.The first new

observatory was established in the Republic of the Maldives in October 2004 (see

<www-abc-asia.ucsd.edu>). An intensive field observation test period as part of an

ABC campaign at Gosan, Korea, was carried out in March 2005.

Polar Observations: ICESat. Polar systems may be especially sensitive to climate

change and might provide early indications of climate change.They also interact with

climate variability and change through several important feedback processes.

Monitoring polar climate and understanding its feedbacks are key priorities described

in the CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP supports the creation of systematic data sets for

parameters such as sea-ice thickness, extent, and concentration; land-ice and snowcover mass balance; and surface temperature. Impacts of changes in these and other

variables were highlighted in the 2004 Overview report of the Arctic Climate Impact

Assessment, Impacts of a Warming Arctic.

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ABC Observatories

Maldives

Pune

Kanpur

Nepal

Phimai

Anmyon

Gosan

Okinawa

Momote

Midway

Mauna Loa

Trinidad Head

Operational ABC Sites

Proposed ABC Sites

To Be Determined

Figure 25: Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) Network. Map of operational and planned observatories that comprise the Atmospheric

Brown Cloud (ABC) network, May 2005. Credit: V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Significant contributions are being made to CCSP’s polar observations by NASA’s

Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), launched in 2003 (see

<icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov>). ICESat measures surface elevations of ice and land, vertical

distributions of clouds and aerosols, vegetation canopy heights, and other features

with unprecedented accuracy and sensitivity.The primary purpose of ICESat has been

to acquire time series of ice-sheet elevation changes for determination of the presentday mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes

and polar climate, and improvement of estimates of the present and future contributions

to global sea-level rise. ICESat has achieved remarkable successes with a number of

first-of-their-kind observations. Among these are:

• The most accurate elevation maps to date of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

• Detection of change in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

• Demonstrated ability to characterize detailed topographic features on ice sheets,

ice shelves, and ice streams

• Capability of detecting ice-sheet elevation changes as small as centimeters per year 

• Pioneering sea-ice thickness mapping (distributions and means)

• Global mapping of heights of clouds and aerosols with unprecedented sensitivity

and detail

• Sensing of vegetation canopy heights and density

• Precision mapping of land elevations.

Solar Variability: SORCE.The Sun is the Earth’s primary energy source and external

driver of climate variability.The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)

satellite, launched in 2003, is equipped with four instruments that measure variations

in solar radiation much more accurately than previous measurements. SORCE is

now making the first contiguous observations of solar variability across the full solar

spectrum, from the far ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths. In June 2004,

SORCE measured small changes in solar luminosity caused by the transit of Venus,

demonstrating unprecedented precision. On 4 November 2004, SORCE documented

the largest solar X-ray flare ever recorded and measured associated changes in total

solar irradiance. SORCE’s operational life is expected to extend across the upcoming

2006-2007 solar minimum, a crucial period for estimating any long-term trend, such

as that indicated by indirect measurements of past solar forcing. SORCE is expected

to overlap with the Glory mission that will carry forward the total solar irradiance

record after 2008, as discussed below.The follow-up to the ultraviolet and other solar

spectral measurements of SORCE is not expected until sometime after 2010 when

both the total and spectral measurements may become operational as part of the

National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS).

Continuity of the solar spectral record will require that SORCE last beyond its design

life of 5 years.

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
ARM Mobile Facility.The primary goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement

(ARM) Program is to improve the treatment of cloud and radiation physics in global

climate models in order to improve the climate simulation capabilities of these models.

These efforts have been enhanced by the addition of the ARM mobile facility (AMF)

to study cloud and radiation processes in multiple climatic regimes.The AMF can be

deployed to sites around the world for durations of 6 to 18 months. Data streams

produced by the AMF will be available to the atmospheric community for use in testing

and improving parameterizations in global climate models.The first deployment of the

AMF is a collaboration between DOE and the DOD Office of Naval Research, which

will make observations of marine stratus clouds and cloud-aerosol interactions (see

<www.arm.gov/sites/amf.stm>).

Coral Ecosystem Integrated Observing System. Coral reefs are some of the

most biologically diverse ecosystems on Earth.They buffer coastal areas from oceanic

swells and tides and provide economic benefits through tourism and fisheries. Recent

estimates have shown a loss varying

from 15 to 25% of the global population

of coral reef ecosystems (Buddemeier

et al., 2004).While the causes for this

degradation may vary, the effects are felt

throughout other marine ecosystems

and ultimately by the economies of

nations dependent on the beauty and

bounty of coral reefs to attract tourism

and fisheries.

A team of scientists assembled on-site monitoring instruments and satellite

remote-sensing data to enhance understanding of the magnitude and complexity of

environmental, physical, and biological factors causing coral reef degradation.The

integration of monitoring systems is also an effective tool to more fully understand

the effects of climate change on coral reef ecosystem health, and to assess the effects

of climatic trends on the diversity and abundance of coral reefs through time.The

Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing System (CREIOS) was formed to provide

a diverse suite of long-term ecological and environmental observations and information

products over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.The goal is to understand

the condition and health of, and processes influencing, coral reef ecosystems, to assist

stakeholders in making improved and timely ecosystem-based management decisions

to conserve coral reefs.The newly formed CREIOS and NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch

(see the “Ecosystems” chapter) are at the forefront of integrated research observations

spanning domestic and international arenas (see <www.nmfs.hawaii.edu/crd/

oceanography.html>).

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Data Management and Information

The following are selected data management and information activities supported by

CCSP participating agencies.

Integrated Climate Data in the Pacific Islands Region. Efforts to improve

climate data integration in the Pacific Islands region are being explored for the purpose

of producing more useful end-user-driven products.The Pacific Region Integrated

Data Enterprise (PRIDE) is currently underway in Hawaii.This activity efficiently uses

existing resources via a newly created NOAA Integrated Environmental Applications

Information Center that will be a new-generation data center for the purpose of

developing more customer-focused and integrated environmental products. NOAA is

partnering with academic and other Federal agencies in the region (e.g., USGS) to

provide information on issues related to Pacific islands, including past, current, and

future trends in patterns of climate and weather-related extreme events (e.g., tropical

cyclones, flooding, drought, and ocean temperature extremes) and their implications for

key sectors of the economy such as agriculture, tourism, and fisheries; and options for

coastal communities and marine ecosystem managers to adapt to and manage effects of

variable and changing environmental conditions (see <apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/PRIDE>).

Climate Extremes Index.The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) was originally

introduced in 1996 as a way to determine whether, and by how much, climate

extremes in the United States are changing.The index initially consisted of five separate

climate change indicators, combined to yield an overall extremes index summarized

on an annual basis.The individual indicators used to investigate possible extremes

included mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and

the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index. In recent years, a revised CEI was

released that includes a sixth indicator related to extremes in land-falling tropical storm

and hurricane wind speed. In addition, the CEI is now evaluated for eight standard

periods or seasons, including spring (Mar-May), summer (Jun-Aug), autumn (Sep-Nov),

winter (Dec-Feb), warm (Apr-Sep), cold (Oct-Mar), hurricane (Jun-Nov), and annual

(Jan-Dec). Newly digitized pre-1948 data have also been included to improve spatial

coverage without compromising completeness of data.With the addition of near realtime data, the CEI became an operational index in June 2004 and is now updated

within the first few weeks after a particular season has ended. Graphs of the most

current CEI and the individual indicators that comprise the CEI may be viewed on the

CEI web site (see <www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html>).

Data Rescue: Climate Database Modernization Program.Through the Climate

Database Modernization Program, millions of deteriorating film and paper images were

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
preserved through imaging and manual data entry.The program is a partnership between

NOAA and private industry to image and manually enter paper and microfilm records

and make them available on the web to members of the climatological research

community. Currently there are nearly 42 million images available.Without these data

rescue efforts, irreplaceable records of past climate would be lost – records that are

vital for maximizing the Nation’s ability to assess the nature of past climate variability

and change (see <www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/cdmp/cdmp.html>).

Improved Access to Radar Data. NOAA significantly improved access to archived

Weather Surveillance Radar-88 Doppler data (WSR-88D NEXRAD) and has made

these data available for use in retrospective climate studies, particularly in regard to

precipitation.With increased bandwidth and advanced information technology,

NEXRAD data are now available within hours as opposed to days and weeks (see

<www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/radar/radarresources.html> and Figure 27).

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Figure 26: U.S. Climate

Extremes Index. U.S. climate

extremes index—warm season

(April-September), 1910–2004.

Credit: K.L. Gleason, NOAA/

National Climatic Data Center.
REASoN Program. Forty Cooperative Agreement projects that are part of NASA’s

Earth Science REASoN – Research, Education, and Applications Solutions Network –

completed their first year.The REASoN projects are part of NASA’s strategy to work

with its partners to improve its existing data systems, guide the development and

management of future data systems, and focus performance outcomes to further Earth

science research objectives. In order to achieve these goals, the REASoN projects are

organized to engage the science community and peer review process in the development

of higher level science products; use these products to advance Earth system research;

develop and demonstrate new technologies for data management and distribution; and

contribute to interagency efforts to improve the maintenance and accessibility of data

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Figure 27: Hurricane

Charley, 13 August 2004.

Hurricane Charley moving

across Florida, August 2004.

Image captured by the

NOAA/National Weather Service

Tampa Bay, Florida, Weather

Forecast Office’s WSR-88D

doppler weather radar.

Credit: NOAA/

National Climatic Data Center.

Hurricane Charley, 13 August 2004, 20:47 GMT

dBZ

75

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65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5
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Cooperative efforts by NASA, NOAA, and other CCSP agencies are moving toward providing an integrated and more easily accessed Earth

information system that will effectively preserve, extend, and distribute information about the evolving state of the Earth. A few examples of

specific agency efforts are given below. Although each activity has a single lead agency, participation involves many CCSP agencies, as well as

State, local, and non-governmental partners.

These activities address Goals 12.3, 12.6, 13.1, 13.2, and 13.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Earth Observing System Data and Information. NASA’s Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) provides

convenient mechanisms for locating and accessing products of interest either electronically or via orders for data on media. EOSDIS facilitates

collaborative science by providing sets of tools and capabilities such that investigators may provide access to special products (or research

products) from their own computing facilities. EOSDIS has an operational EOS Data Gateway (EDG) that provides access to the data holdings

at all the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and participating data centers from other U.S. and international agencies. Currently,

there are14 EDGs around the world that permit users to access Earth science data archives, browse data holdings, select data products, and

place data orders.

Distributed Active Archive Centers. Eight NASA DAACs representing a wide range of Earth science disciplines comprise the data

archival and distribution functions of EOSDIS.The DAACs carry out the responsibilities for processing certain data products from instrument

data, archiving and distributing NASA’s Earth science data, and providing a full range of user support.There are more than 2,100 distinct

data products archived at and distributed from the DAACs.These institutions are custodians of Earth science mission data until the data are

moved to long-term archives.They ensure that data will be easily accessible to users. NASA and NOAA have initiated a pilot project to

develop a prototype system for testing candidate approaches for moving MODIS data into long-term NOAA archives.This pilot project is

part of the evolution of the Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) developed by NOAA. Acting in concert with

their users, DAACs provide reliable, robust services to those whose needs may cross traditional discipline boundaries, while continuing to

support the particular needs of their respective discipline communities.The DAACs are currently serving a broad and growing user

community at an increasing rate.

Global Change Master Directory.The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) is an extensive directory of descriptive and spatial

information about data sets relevant to global change research.The GCMD provides a comprehensive resource where a researcher, student,

or interested individual can access sources of Earth science data and related tools/services. At present the GCMD database contains over

17,200 metadata descriptions of data sets from more than 1,200 government agencies, research institutions, archives, and universities

worldwide; updates are made at the rate of 900 descriptions per month.The GCMD contains descriptions of data sets covering all disciplines

that produce and use data to help us understand our changing planet. Although much research is focused on climate change, the GCMD

includes metadata from disciplines including atmospheric science, oceanography, ecology, geology, hydrology, and human dimensions of climate

change.This interdisciplinary approach is aimed at researchers exploring the interconnections and interrelations of multidisciplinary global

change variables (e.g., how climate change may impact human health).The GCMD has made it easier for such data users to locate the

information they desire. A portal has been created in support of GEOSS.The professional relationship between the system developers and

the scientists has yielded an environment where the developers respond to the needs of potential users.

Scientific Data Stewardship. Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) is a new paradigm in data management at NOAA, consisting of an integrated suite of functions to preserve and exploit the full scientific value of environmental data.These functions are careful monitoring of

observing system performance for long-term applications; generation of authoritative long-term records from multiple observing platforms;

assessment of the state of the atmospheric, oceanic, land, cryospheric, and space environments; and proper archival of and timely access to

data and metadata. In this process, SDS will correct many data problems identified by the scientific community and permit more significant

applications to economic and social issues to help fulfill NOAA’s environmental stewardship mission. Successful implementation of SDS will

ensure that the Nation’s environmental data (initially from NOAA and NASA) are of maximum use to the Nation now and in the future.

National Data Centers. NOAA’s National Data Centers and their worldwide clientele of customers look to CLASS as the primary NOAA

information technology infrastructure project in which all of its current and future large-array environmental data sets will reside. CLASS

builds upon systems already in place to implement an integrated, national environmental data access and archive system to support a

comprehensive data management strategy. CLASS provides permanent, secure storage and safe, efficient access between Data Centers and

customers. CLASS is able to ingest, archive, and provide access to data produced from large-array data sources, such as existing and future

environmental satellite systems.This includes the next generation of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, which will provide a significant increase

in observing capability, and also a significant increase in data rates. Recent accomplishments include implementation of free Internet-based

customer access to NOAA geostationary satellite data and the start of the NPOESS Preparatory Project to ensure that CLASS is ready for the

launch of this next-generation polar-orbiting satellite mission in late 2006.

SYSTEMS FOR DATA MANAGEMENT AND DISTRIBUTION
and information systems. A list of ongoing activities under this program can be found

at <research.hq.nasa.gov/code_y/nra/current/CAN-02-OES-01/winners.html>.)

HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2006 AND BEYOND

CCSP will support the development and implementation of integrated systems for

observations and monitoring of climate and global change, and associated data

management and information systems. Selected key planned activities for FY 2006 and

beyond follow.

Global Climate Observing System.The first element of GCOS that is expected

to be completed in 2005 is the global drifting buoy array, a group of 1,250 drifting

buoys measuring sea surface temperature and other variables. In FY 2006, the full

complement of 3,000 Argo floating buoys will be deployed. Sea-level measurements,

provided by the Absolute Altimeter Calibration Station, will transition from NASA to

NOAA funding. Continued upgrading of the Global Sea-Level Observing System tide

gauge network from 43 to 170 stations is planned for the next few years. Ocean carbon

inventory surveys funded by both NOAA and NSF in a 10-year repeat survey cycle

will help determine the uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the oceans. Plans for

enhancement of the global Tropical Atmosphere Ocean network include advances into

the Indian Ocean, with three moorings in the Indian Ocean in 2005 followed by two

more in both FY 2006 and 2007.This will enhance the tropical networks currently

monitoring above-surface, surface, and subsurface conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic

Oceans.Work will continue in FY 2006 to reestablish GCOS Upper Air Network sites

in key developing country locations as determined by the GCOS atmospheric science

community.

Ocean analysis activities will be initiated in FY 2006 to advance data assimilation

and analysis subsystems. Long-range planning includes building the number of ocean

observing networks with a focus on the polar regions, especially the Arctic, for impacts

of climate change; ocean circulation changes to monitor for possible indications of

abrupt climate change; and ocean-atmosphere exchange of heat and water, particularly

in support of drought early warning and diagnostics.

These activities will address Goals 12.3 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Atmospheric Brown Cloud Sites.The fundamental goal of ABC is to integrate air

pollution and climate science to assess the impacts on the environment and society.

Since Asia is the source of more than 50% of sulfur dioxide and black carbon emissions,

ABC’s first focus is on the Asian region.Ten new observatories will be established in

the Indo-Asia-Pacific region over the next 3 to 5 years.These will be combined with

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 
three existing observatories in the region. Plans are in place to bring the second ABC

super site at Gosan, Korea, into operation.

ABC will generate a database for estimating the radiative forcing due to aerosols,

including black carbon and aerosol-cloud interactions.With respect to impact

assessment, ABC will estimate the effects of aerosol and greenhouse gas radiative

forcing on climate and hydrological cycles and the resulting impacts on agriculture

and water budgets. As noted previously, ABC is coordinating an integrated regional

and global modeling effort.The ABC observations, integrated with NOAA and NASA

satellite observations, will provide the input (e.g., climate forcing at monthly time

scales and regional spatial scales) for these models. In turn, these models will provide

links between observations and policy by assessing the possible impacts of past emissions

and “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios.

These activities will address Goals 12.2, 12.4, and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Polar Region Observations: International Polar Year. Polar climate observations

will continue to be a CCSP focus as preparations are made for the International Polar

Year (IPY), which will begin in 2007.The IPY coincides with the 50th anniversary of

the International Geophysical Year, which in 1957 initiated the systematic observation

of key climate variables such as atmospheric CO2. For further information on the IPY,

see <dels.nas.edu/us-ipy>.

The United States plans to increase its efforts on observations of the Arctic

atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean.Working with Canada, NOAA will deploy an

atmospheric observatory in northeastern Canada to mirror current activities in

Barrow, Alaska.Together, these observatories will provide an improved high-resolution

characterization of clouds and aerosols, and of incoming and outgoing radiation. A

wealth of satellite data will also be available for polar regions in 2007.Two satellites to

be launched early in FY 2006, CALIPSO and Cloudsat, will use lidar and radar to

provide three-dimensional distributions of aerosols and layered clouds. Data from

these surface- and space-based observatories will provide high-quality records needed

to detect potential future climate change. Calibration and validation field programs

utilizing airborne and balloon-borne sensors associated with these satellite missions

and other programs will greatly aid in the intensive characterization of the Arctic.

Additional effort will be made to detect changes in sea ice through deployment of

buoys to measure sea-ice properties directly, and also through new satellite sensors (see,

e.g., ICESat description above) whose calibration can be enhanced by the availability

of an increased set of buoy data. Changes in the temperature and salinity structure of

the ocean beneath sea ice could be a critical indicator of changes in the climate system,

and new efforts will be made to gather such data.The Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort

Seas off Alaska are home to many valuable living resources, including fish, marine

mammals, and birds, that are affected by ocean currents and the seasonal progression

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of sea ice.There is evidence that these areas are warming and that the annual period of

ice cover is diminishing.The biotic response to these physical changes will be studied

through enhanced observations by automated systems and ship-based activities.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Earth System Science Pathfinder Program. NASA’s Earth System Science

Pathfinder (ESSP) program is the primary source of exploratory missions to

complement the EOS satellites Terra, Aqua, and Aura.The ESSP program consists of

smaller missions developed and implemented on a faster schedule, proposed by the

scientific community to address specific research questions.The first ESSP mission,

the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, was launched in March 2002. A second

launch, planned for fall 2005, will deploy two more ESSP satellites, CloudSat and

CALIPSO, as mentioned in the previous subsection. After initial testing and quality

control, science data from these key missions will be available beginning in 2006.

CloudSat, a joint mission involving NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and the Canadian

Space Agency, is designed to measure cloud properties that are critical for understanding

clouds’ effects on both weather and climate.These cloud properties are not obtainable

from current satellite measurement systems.The mission’s primary science goal is to

furnish data needed to evaluate and improve the way clouds are parameterized in

global models, thereby contributing to better predictions of clouds and to a better

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Highlights of Recent Research and Plans for FY 2006 

Figure 28: The “A-Train”. This figure illustrates the constellation of satellites known as the “A Train,” which will make nearly contiguous

observations of many facets of the Earth system. Credit: NASA.
understanding of poorly understood cloud-climate feedbacks. CloudSat’s key

observations are the vertical profiles of cloud liquid-water and ice-water content and

related physical and radiative properties. It will fly in tight formation with the CloudAerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite.

CALIPSO is being developed to provide new information about the effects of thin

clouds and aerosols on changes in the Earth’s climate. Global measurements of the

three-dimensional distributions of aerosols and clouds will provide scientists with a

more comprehensive data set that is essential for a better understanding of the Earth’s

climate forcings and feedbacks.The CALIPSO mission is implemented in collaboration

with the French space agency, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales. CloudSat and

CALIPSO will follow behind the Aqua satellite as part of the multi-satellite formation

termed the “A-train” (see Figure 28). Also included in the “A-train” satellite formation

will be the PARASOL mission to measure cloud and aerosol properties using polarization

of reflected sunlight.The combination of these data with coincident measurements

from Aqua and Aura will provide a rich source of information that can be used to

assess the role of clouds in both weather and climate.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Solar Variability: Glory.The Glory mission will continue to be developed in

FY 2006, and is planned for 2008 launch. It will carry a Total Irradiance Monitor

(TIM) based on the SORCE TIM design, with the same high-precision phase-sensitive

detection capability. Glory will also carry an Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS),

which will improve our ability to distinguish among aerosol types by measuring the

polarization state of reflected sunlight. Both TIM and APS will provide key measurements

beginning in 2007, the minimum of solar cycle 24.This less active portion of the

11-year solar cycle is especially crucial in estimating any long-term trends in solar

output – a key to understanding the 20th-century context of global change, as the Sun

is the single entirely “external” forcing of the climate system that is unaffected by

climate change itself. Glory is described at <www.esa.ssc.nasa.gov/m2m/

mission_report.aspx?mission_id=233>.The International Heliophysical Year is

summarized at <ihy.gsfc.nasa.gov>.)

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. Motivated by the successes of the

TRMM satellite and recognizing the need for a more comprehensive global precipitation

measuring program, NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency conceived a

new Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission. A fundamental scientific goal

of the GPM Mission is to make substantial improvements in global precipitation

observations, especially in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, spatial

resolution, and coverage, thus extending TRMM’s rainfall time series.To achieve this

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goal, the mission will consist of a constellation of low-Earth-orbiting satellites carrying

various passive and active microwave measuring instruments.The GPM Mission will

be used to address important issues central to improving the predictions of climate,

weather, and hydrometeorological processes, and also to stimulate operational forecasting

and to underwrite an effective public outreach and education program, including

near-real-time dissemination of televised regional and global rainfall maps. Assessment

of how natural and anthropogenic aerosols affect precipitation variability (therefore

the water cycle) is a complex and important problem.The capability to monitor the

diurnal cycle of rainfall globally with GPM is expected to enable significantly

improved understanding of the links between aerosols, climate variability, weather

changes, hydrometeorological anomalies, and small-scale cloud macrophysics and

microphysics.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Orbiting Carbon Observatory.The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a

new mission, being prepared to launch in 2008, to provide the first space-based

measurements of atmospheric CO2 (total column) with the precision, resolution, and

coverage needed to characterize carbon sources and sinks on regional scales and to

quantify their variability. Analyses of OCO data will regularly produce precise global

maps of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere that will enable more reliable projections of

future changes in the abundance and distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere and the

effect that these changes may have on the Earth’s climate.

These activities will address Goals 12.2 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Sea Surface Temperature. Both short-term numerical weather prediction and longer

term climate change detection require sea surface temperature (SST) measurements

made frequently, on a global scale, and at fine spatial resolution. Currently there are

many different satellite-derived SST data sets available with a number of options in

terms of product content,coverage, spatial resolution, timeliness, format, and accuracy.

Realizing that the existing SST data products are less than ideal for numerical weather

prediction and regional-scale climate change detection, the international Global Ocean

Data Assimilation Experiment steering committee initiated a pilot project in 2005 to

develop an operational demonstration system that will deliver a new generation of

global-coverage high-resolution (better than 10-km and collected approximately every

6 hours) SST data products.The data products will be derived by combining readily

available but complementary satellite and in situ observations in real-time to improve

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spatial coverage, temporal resolution, cross-sensor calibration stability, and SST product

accuracy.

These activities will address Goals 12.1 and 12.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary

Analysis (AMMA) is an international project to improve our knowledge and

understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its variability, with an

emphasis on daily-to-interannual time scales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in

fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the

WAM and its impacts on West African nations. As noted in the “Climate Variability and

Change” chapter, U.S. involvement in AMMA will focus on climate, weather, and

related aerosol issues associated with the African monsoon regions. A multidisciplinary

field program is planned, combining long-term monitoring over several seasons with

intensive observations in the summer of 2006.The field measurements will be used to

test and improve predictive models for the environment and climate of Africa, and for

the impact of the African monsoon on the global environment. U.S. participation in

AMMA may include ship, aircraft, and oceanographic sensors proposed for support

from multiple CCSP agencies.The ARM Mobile Facility will be deployed in 2006.

These activities will address Goals 12.2 and 12.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

USGEO Near-Term Opportunity. USGEO was established in March 2005 as a

standing subcommittee of the National Science and Technology Council Committee

on Environmental and Natural Resources to replace the ad hoc IWGEO. USGEO has

outlined a process for the development of a modern information management system,

based on Federal Enterprise Architecture principles.The process follows contemporary

commercial and academic practices for integrating distributed resources within a

virtual organization framework based on a service-based architecture. It uses existing

data management planning as its foundation, and relies heavily on an articulation of

how data are used to drive the system design. USGEO is developing specific guidance

to advance existing agency efforts that address the six “Near-Term Opportunities”

outlined in the USGEO Strategic Plan: disaster warning, global land cover, sea level,

drought, air quality, and enhanced data management (see <iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov>).

These activities will address Goals 12.6 and 13.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.

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1) Buddemeier, R.W., J.A. Kleypas, and R. Aronson, 2004: Coral Reefs and Global Climate Change.

Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems. Prepared for the Pew

Center for Global Climate Change, 42 pp. Available at <www.pewclimate.org/

global-warming-in-depth/all_reports/coral_reefs/index.cfm>.

OBSERVING AND MONITORING

CHAPTER REFERENCE
9 Communications

The CCSP Strategic Plan calls upon CCSP agencies and

departments to coordinate their communications efforts while

focusing on two goals:

• Disseminate the results of CCSP activities credibly and

effectively

• Make CCSP science findings and products easily available

to a diverse set of audiences.

In order to accomplish these objectives, the CCSP Strategic Plan

states that CCSP will formalize a working group to develop

and help implement an interagency communications plan for

the program. During FY 2004, the Communications

Interagency Working Group (CIWG) was formally established.

The CIWG completed a 1-year implementation plan that the

CCSP Principals approved in January 2005.The implementation

plan will guide CCSP’s coordinated interagency communications

efforts for the balance of FY 2005 and early FY 2006.

Under the implementation plan, the CIWG will help produce:

• Products on climate change science fundamentals such as

“Frequently Asked Questions” and educational fact sheets

• A series of information pieces about CCSP and its activities

• Fact sheets and other outreach materials and activities on quarterly featured topics

that focus on cross-agency research efforts

• Ancillary outreach material to accompany research products issued by CCSP

working groups.

The Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO), funded and supervised by

the agencies and departments participating in CCSP, supports the program’s

communications goals, along with members of the CIWG. CCSPO assists the CIWG,

coordinates preparation of the annual Our Changing Planet report to Congress as well

as other reports, and is responsible for managing the program’s interagency web sites.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF RECENT INTERAGENCY COMMUNICATIONS ACTIVITY

Listed below are highlights of recent communication activities coordinated at the

interagency level.

• Published and distributed Our Changing Planet:The U.S. Climate Change Science

Program for Fiscal Years 2004 and 2005. CCSP produced 6,000 hardcopies of the

report, issued a digital version on CD-ROM, and distributed 1,000 copies of the

CD at the Tenth Session of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-10).

• Added new material to CCSP’s publicly accessible web sites, including:

– The FY 2004-2005 edition of Our Changing Planet

– Guidelines for producing CCSP synthesis and assessment products 

– Prospectuses for several synthesis and assessment products, which include

background information on the planned report and a detailed roadmap that will

be followed in producing it.

• Ensured early and ongoing review of synthesis and assessment products by

stakeholder communities.

• Facilitated stakeholder participation in the U.S. Government review of draft

documents of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• Facilitated observations and research that led to the production of a large body of

publications in the peer-reviewed literature and presentations at scientific

conferences.

• Facilitated the initiation of numerous scientific and stakeholder workshops, including

an Ecosystems workshop and multiple workshops providing input to the CCSP

synthesis and assessment activities.

• Engaged media to respond to queries

and promote awareness of the program’s

functions and goals and activities to the

general, non-scientific public, as well as

policymakers and Congress.

• Managed and improved CCSP web sites.

Traffic to CCSP’s two main web sites

grew rapidly to an average of 5,000

visits per day by the end of FY 2004.

CCSPO also has improved integration

among the interagency public web sites

and improved web services to working

groups.

• Assumed responsibility for the Global

Change Research Information Office

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(GCRIO), which was managed previously by the Center for International Earth

Science Information Network at Columbia University. Mandated by the Global

Change Research Act of 1990, the purpose of the office is to “disseminate to foreign

governments, businesses, and institutions, as well as the citizens of foreign countries,

scientific research information available in the United States which would be useful

in preventing, mitigating, or adapting to the effects of global change.” GCRIO

includes a major web site (see <www.gcrio.org>), with two important features:

– GCRIO Online Catalog for requesting reports and CDs (see

<www.gcrio.org/orders>), which CCSPO upgraded, resulting in a rapid

increase in the number of orders received and items shipped

– Ask Dr. Global Change (see <www.gcrio.org/ask-doctor.html>), which answers

global change questions submitted by web site visitors, with selected answers

also posted to a publicly accessible online archive of answers.

• Established and managed the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) web

site (see <www.climatetechnology.gov>). CCSPO also provides additional support

services to CCTP, including development and management of password-protected

web sites and publications support.

HIGHLIGHTS OF CCSP INTERAGENCY

COMMUNICATIONS PLANS FOR FY 2006

Listed below are some of the communications activities coordinated at the interagency

level and planned for FY 2006:

• Ensure early and ongoing review of new

synthesis and assessment products by

stakeholder communities.

• Convene a CCSP workshop, “Climate

Science in Support of Decision Making,”

for scientists and stakeholders in

November 2005.

• Prepare, publish, and disseminate the

FY 2006 and FY 2007 editions of

Our Changing Planet.

• Facilitate stakeholder participation in

the U.S. Government review of draft

documents of the IPCC.

• Define and launch one or more pilot

projects, as outlined in the

CCSP Strategic Plan.

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• Continue to improve and

expand websites:

– Prepare and post new

web content

– Improve web site

usability and accessibility

– Enhance integration

between agency and

interagency web sites

– Expand web services to

CCSP working groups.

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10 International Research

and Cooperation

International coordination and cooperation are essential to

improve understanding of climate variability and change. An

international approach to research is required because of the

global scope of the climate system as well as limitations in the

scientific capacity and financial resources of any one country.

The United States continues to advocate the development and

maintenance of an informal international framework to

enhance international cooperation within which climate change

science, including research and observational programs, may

be planned and implemented effectively.The goals of U.S.

efforts to promote international cooperation in support of

CCSP are to:

• Actively promote and encourage cooperation between U.S.

scientists and scientific institutions and agencies and their

counterparts around the globe so that they can aggregate

the scientific and financial resources necessary to undertake

research on global change at all relevant scales, including

both regional and global.

• Expand observing systems in order to provide global

observational coverage of variability and change in the

atmosphere, oceans, and on land, especially as needed to underpin the research

effort.

• Ensure that the data collected are of the highest quality possible and suitable for

both research and forecasting, and that these data are exchanged and archived on a

timely and effective basis among all interested scientists and end users.

• Support development of scientific capabilities and the application of results in

developing countries in order to promote the fullest possible participation by

scientists and scientific institutions in these countries in research, observational,

and data management efforts.

These goals draw directly on the needs identified by the U.S. scientific community

and are described in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

CCSP participates in and provides input to major international scientific and related

organizations on behalf of the U.S. Government and scientific community. It does so

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in part through its working groups, including the Interagency Working Group on

International Research and Cooperation. In addition to promoting and encouraging

participation of U.S. scientists and scientific institutions in international climate

science, CCSP also shares in multilateral international support to maintain the central

coordinating infrastructure of major international research programs and international

activities that complement CCSP and U.S. Government goals in climate science.

In FY 2004 and 2005, the United States sought to encourage international cooperation

in the development of observing systems through its continued participation in the

Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) and other activities such as the

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

The United States also cooperated with its partners in a number of international

scientific assessment and decision-support activities such as the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, and other

application-related programs such as the International Research Institute for Climate

Prediction.

The United States also continued its support for the major international global change

research programs, including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the

International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), the International GeosphereBiosphere Programme (IGBP), and DIVERSITAS.These programs are now coordinating

their activities through the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).The SysTem for

Analysis, Research, and Training receives strong U.S. support for its activities to

promote outreach and capacity building that supports the WCRP, IGBP, IHDP, and

DIVERSITAS.The United States also continued its support of international regional

global change research networks such as the Inter-American Institute for Global

Change Research, and the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research.With

cooperation from ESSP, the United States has provided support for a workshop to

explore needs and opportunities for more formal cooperation in global change

research in Africa.

Finally, in FY 2004 and 2005, the United States, through CCSP agencies, supported a

variety of climate-related international research programs that advanced several

Presidential initiatives and the suite of 15 climate change bilateral agreements

coordinated by the U.S. Department of State.

Highlights of these and other key international activities led by or participated in by

CCSP are outlined below.

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INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN OBSERVING SYSTEMS

Global Earth Observing System of Systems. On 31 July 2003 in Washington,

D.C., 33 nations plus the European Commission adopted a declaration that signifies

political commitment to move toward development of a comprehensive, coordinated,

and sustained Earth observation system(s).The Earth Observation Summit attracted

a distinguished group of government dignitaries from around the world who are

committed to significantly advancing the collective ability to gather Earth observation

data.

The Summit participants affirmed the need for timely, high-quality, long-term,

global information as a basis for sound decisionmaking. In order to monitor continuously

the state of the Earth, to increase understanding of dynamic Earth processes, to

enhance prediction of the Earth system, and to further implement environmental

treaty obligations, participants recognized the need to support the creation of a

comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observing system of systems.

To further this goal, the Summit participants launched the intergovernmental ad hoc

Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to develop a 10-Year Implementation Plan.The

group, co-chaired by the United States, the European Commission, Japan, and South

Africa, currently comprises more than 50 countries and more than 30 international

organizations.While a GEOSS will benefit the climate community, it will also address

a wide range of other priority applications – for example, management of agriculture,

biodiversity, disasters, ecosystems, energy resources, health, water, and weatherrelated risks.

Ministers met for the Second Earth Observation Summit in Tokyo, Japan, on

25 April 2004, where they adopted the Framework Document for a 10-Year

Implementation Plan for this initiative.The plan was adopted by ministers at the Third

Earth Observation Summit, hosted by the European Commission on 16 February 2005.

A new GEO Secretariat, hosted by the World Meteorological Organization, has been

established in Geneva.

Global Climate Observing System. GCOS was established in 1992 to ensure that

the observations necessary to address climate-related issues are defined, obtained, and

made available to all potential users. GCOS is co-sponsored by the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of

the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO),

the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the International Council

for Science (ICSU). GCOS is working closely with GEO in the development of its

implementation and work plans for the climate component of the GEOSS.

GCOS coordinates and facilitates the taking of required observations by national

or international organizations in support of their own requirements as well as of

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common goals. It provides an operational framework for integrating, and enhancing

in situ and space-based observational systems of participating countries and organizations

into a comprehensive system focused on the requirements for climate issues.

GCOS builds upon, and works in partnership with, other existing and developing

observing systems such as the Global Ocean Observing System, the Global Terrestrial

Observing System (GTOS), and the Global Observing System and Global Atmosphere

Watch of the WMO. It draws upon proven networks established under research programs

such as the WCRP and the IGBP.

GCOS also works very closely with the United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Conference of the Parties (COP), for whom it

has developed an adequacy assessment and the GCOS Implementation Plan for defining

and obtaining systematic observations of the climate system to meet the needs of the

UNFCCC.This has led to a number of COP decisions and recommendations to the

Parties in direct support of climate observation. U.S. GCOS activities and interactions

with the GCOS Secretariat are coordinated by a U.S. GCOS Program Manager who

works at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

The Global Observations of Forest Cover and Land Cover Dynamics

(GOFC-GOLD) Project. GOFC-GOLD is an international project with participation

from USGS, NOAA, NASA, and several U.S. universities working in an internationally

coordinated way to provide ongoing space-based and in situ observations of forests and

other vegetation cover, for the sustainable management of terrestrial resources and to

obtain an accurate, reliable, quantitative understanding of the terrestrial carbon budget.

The GTOS GOFC-GOLD project regularly conducts workshops for enhancing

regional science networks and for observation coordination and data capacity building.

In 2004, GOFC-GOLD, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Land Product

Validation Workshop, and regional GOFC-GOLD data capacity building workshops

were held in northern Eurasia, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America, as

well as an Implementation Team meeting on Land Cover.The GOFC Secretariat is

managed by the Canadian Forest Service supported by the Canadian Space Agency.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization GTOS Secretariat maintains the GOFCGOLD web site (see <www.fao.org/gtos/gofc-gold/2005_e.html>), which provides

updates on project activities and forthcoming events.

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SELECTED INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS

AND DECISION-SUPPORT PROGRAMS

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.The U.S. Government has played

an active role in the IPCC process since its inception, and continues to do so.The

United States chairs IPCC’s Working Group I (which focuses on the physical basis of

climate change) and provides support for its Technical Support Unit. In 2004, CCSP

coordinated the nomination and review process for authors of the upcoming IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report, set to be published in 2007, for the U.S. Government.

Three panels, comprised of representatives from all CCSP agencies, reviewed over

400 nominations of U.S. scientists.This nomination and review period resulted in a

large and strong group of U.S. nominees to the IPCC.

In FY 2005, the IPCC approved comprehensive assessments on two focused issues

relating to climate change. In July 2005, it approved a Special Report on Safeguarding

the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues Relating to Hydrocarbons and

Perfluorocarbons.The report covers scientific aspects of ozone-depleting substances

and their substitutes as they pertain to radiative forcing, as well as issues involved in

addressing atmospheric emissions of these classes of substances. In September 2005, it

approved a Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Both reports involved

strong participation from U.S. scientists and technical experts. CCSP coordinated the

U.S. Government reviews of the first of these reports, and the Climate Change

Technology Program (CCTP) coordinated review of the latter report.

CCSP supports participation of experts to serve as Coordinating Lead Authors,

Lead Authors, and Review Editors of the reports and to participate in workshops that

contribute to the IPCC process. At present, 116 U.S. scientists serve as authors on

IPCC reports under preparation, and 15 as Review Editors. CCSP also coordinates

the U.S. reviews of draft reports at the request of the Department of State.

Scientific Assessment of Ozone Layer Depletion.The international state-ofscientific understanding assessment reports regarding the ozone layer are produced

every 4 years in accordance with the U.N. Montreal Protocol, to which the United

States and over 180 other nations are signatories.The forthcoming Scientific

Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006 is in preparation and will be published in early

2007.

The report will describe the current status of understanding regarding ozonedepleting substances in the atmosphere, polar and global ozone observations, climateozone connections, expectations for future halocarbon levels and the ozone layer, and

observed/future surface UV radiation.The report plays a particularly unique role in

communicating scientific understanding to international decisionmakers regarding

ozone-depleting substances and the protection of the ozone layer.

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The ozone assessment is produced under the auspices of the WMO and UNEP.

The United States has played a leading role in the international ozone assessments

since their inception. Currently, U.S. scientists serve as two of the three co-chairs of

the Montreal Protocol Scientific Assessment Panel and coordinating editor of the 2006

report. U.S. scientists are also prominent among the lead authors, co-authors, and

reviewers.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. November 2004 marked the release of the

140-page synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Impacts of a

Warming Arctic.This document can be downloaded from <amap.no/acia/> or

ordered from Cambridge University Press.The individual science chapters of the full

report have been released at <www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html>.The full

underlying document, scheduled for publication at the end of 2005, is the most

comprehensive document to date addressing the state of the Arctic climate. It will

serve the scientific and policy communities as an important reference on Arctic

climate, its changes, and potential impacts and will also be available from Cambridge

University Press.The U.S. Government will continue to support, and U.S. scientists

will continue to participate in, activities with other pan-Arctic nations through the

Arctic Council and other organizations.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

(MA) is designed to meet the needs of decisionmakers and the public for scientific

information concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being

and options for responding to those changes.The MA identifies climate change as one

of the key issues affecting current and projected future ecosystem change.The MA

focuses on ecosystem services (the benefits people obtain from ecosystems), how

changes in ecosystem services have affected human well-being, how ecosystem

changes may affect people in future decades, and response options that might be

adopted at local, national, or global scales to improve ecosystem management and

thereby contribute to human well-being and poverty alleviation.The MA is a multiscale assessment, consisting of interlinked assessments undertaken at local, watershed,

national, regional, and global scales. More than 1,300 authors, many from the

United States, have been involved in four expert working groups preparing the global

assessment, and hundreds more in the sub-global assessments.The MA Synthesis

Report was released in March 2005, with the MA’s other global and sub-global

assessment reports scheduled for publication in 2005 and 2006.

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction.The

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) works within an expanding

network of partnerships to address, and when possible mitigate, the frequently damaging

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effects of climate variability on societies in developing countries.This network draws

on the respective strengths of local, national, multinational, research, academic,

governmental, and non-governmental institutions. It provides an effective means for

the directed transfer of technology and the concentration of relevant information and

ideas from many sectors, disciplines, and regions.

Over the last 9 years, IRI has continued to develop the capacity to use climate

forecasting to anticipate, understand, and manage a growing number of the impacts of

climate variability.Their case studies, tools, and models have been applied to climateinfluenced problems that range from reservoir management in the Philippines to

malaria in Southern Africa and agriculture management in Uruguay. Its success has

depended on the mutual sharing of knowledge and capacity with local organizations

and individuals, who understand local conditions, needs, and opportunities and are

best equipped to implement local solutions.

The IRI’s global network of partners allows them to draw from a broad range of

relevant disciplines as well as from concrete experiences of project success and failure

from around the world.Their understanding of the problems they are trying to solve

is nourished by a close relationship with local partners. Experience has taught the IRI

that the strengthening of individuals and institutions in developing countries is one of

the most important elements of their mission.

Famine EarlyWarning System Network.The United States supports the innovative

application of science to alleviate risks related to existing climate variability or the

potential for climate change through the Famine Early Warning System Network

(FEWS NET). FEWS NET provides decisionmakers with the information to respond

effectively to drought and food insecurity by analyzing remote-sensing data and groundbased meteorological, crop, and rangeland observations to identify early indications

of potential famine. In addition to using data produced by host governments for its

analyses, FEWS NET uses data from satellite imagery (NDVI and Meteosat Rainfall

Estimation images) that it receives every 10 days throughout the year. FEWS NET

operates in 20 countries in Africa, three countries in Central America, and in Haiti

and Afghanistan.

RANET. Since the mid-1990s, the United States has provided support through NOAA

and USAID’s Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) to build the capacity of

institutions and communities in Africa to generate, validate, and apply seasonal climate

forecasts to plan for and respond to natural disasters such as droughts, tropical

cyclones, and floods.The capacity building effort was achieved through an international

framework called Climate Outlook Forums, which are the most trusted sources of

seasonal forecast information and are the main conduits for generating and disseminating

seasonal climate forecasts in Africa. Additionally, the United States, through NOAA’s

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long time partnership with the USAID-OFDA, supports the communication of seasonal

climate information via radio and Internet technology called RANET.The RANET is a

simple, cost-effective, and adaptable communication system that provides seasonal

forecast information to remote areas in developing countries such as Africa.

International Climate Research Applications. Developing countries of Latin

America and the Caribbean, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the South Pacific are vulnerable

to climate variability and related environmental risks (e.g., droughts and floods) and

may not be able to take advantage of opportunities such as advances in science and

technology. As a result, these countries often bear a disproportionate share of the

social and economic consequences of climate variability. Understanding the science of

climate variability and using this insight to develop decision tools and methodologies

is essential to enhancing informed planning and decisionmaking to reduce the impacts

of climate variability and other environmental changes in these countries. An important

CCSP goal is to support the development of scientific capabilities and the application

of scientific tools in developing countries, and to promote the participation of developing

country scientists and their institutions to fully participate in research, observation,

and data management.

The Environment, Science, and Development (ESD) program of NOAA’s Climate

and Societal Interaction initiative contributes to the above CCSP goal.The ESD program

facilitates the work of international scientific communities to conduct interdisciplinary,

stakeholder-oriented, and on-site research designed to produce scientifically based

tools and methods to underpin decisions to mitigate the impact of climate variability

and change. Additionally, ESD’s support will continue to contribute to building

capabilities of scientists and institutions in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa,

Southeast Asia, and the South Pacific to effectively utilize climate information for

managing climate risks such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges, etc.

and for reducing the impact on economies and natural resources in developing countries.

ESD’s support and collaboration with other partners such as USAID-OFDA have

resulted in increased awareness of the value of climate information, and have better

enabled decisionmakers in both the private and public sector who use climate

information in decisionmaking and planning to mitigate hydrometeorological disasters

and for natural resource management. In FY 2004, the ESD program supported a

number of international climate research activities.These were designed to develop

scientific capability in a number of developing countries in Latin America, the

Caribbean, and Africa. Selected activities included:

• The “Regional capacity building for adapting to the impacts of climate variability

and climate change in coastal zones of the Southern African Community (SADC)

region” workshop contributes to NOAA’s environmental literacy, outreach and

education, and international collaboration in the African region. In addition, the

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initiative represents an activity of the U.S./South Africa Climate Change bilateral

initiative aimed at capacity building for users of climate change data.

• The “Seasonal Climate Prediction and Management of the Panama Canal:

Estimating the Benefits of Using Climate Forecast Information” project contributes

to NOAA’s decision-support research portfolio and is aimed at assessing the value

of climate information for the real-time management of the water resources of the

Panama Canal watershed.

• In the Greater Horn of Africa, commonly referred to as Eastern Africa, a group of

NOAA-supported scientists developed seasonal climate prediction tools through

analysis of intra-seasonal behavior of rainfall in that region. From the results of the

work, negative Southern Oscillation Indices (SOIs) indicate the emergence of

El Niño and positive SOIs indicate the coming of La Niña.

• NOAA supported scientists in Uganda as they investigated and documented

traditional rainfall indicators, which will contribute to increased understanding of

traditional forecasting methods and their harmonization with scientific forecasts.

Harmonization will both improve the resolution of scientific forecasts and facilitate

the adoption of the forecast by decisionmakers, particularly at the grass-roots level.

In FY 2006, CCSP, through ESD, will sponsor a variety of efforts to apply climate

research information, including the following:

• Generating, validating, and disseminating seasonal rainfall forecasts for international

regions of Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, the South Pacific,

and Africa

• Collaborating with IRI, regional climate forecasting and application centers, and

NOAA’s regional principal investigators to demonstrate the value of climate

information through demonstration projects, development of decision-support

resources, and use of earlier exploratory pilot project outputs in operational mode

for application in specific decision contexts

• Building capacity and training of users for more effective and efficient utilization of

climate information in their various decision domains 

• Partnering with relevant boundary institutions such as agricultural extension

agencies, non-governmental organizations, and other local and place-based

organizations for effective interpretation, communication, and dissemination of

climate information

• Continuing to provide technical support for the U.S. Climate Change Bilateral

initiative projects.

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COOPERATION IN SUPPORT OF

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme.The IGBP, because of its

strong international research programs and coordination, has drawn the participation

of many U.S. scientists.The United States supports individual science programs as well

as secretariat operations and coordination activities. IGBP and the other international

global change research programs add value to national and other international

research through scientific integration; design and implementation of international

research frameworks agreed by the scientific community; efficient strategies for

international resource allocation; and international networking, standardization of

methodologies, intercomparisons, and syntheses.

The IGBP focuses on an integrated biogeochemical approach to Earth system

science. It is currently moving from its first phase of research activities into a second

phase of integrative projects that have as their emphasis the interfaces between various

components of the Earth system – for example, land-ocean, ocean-atmosphere, etc.

The IGBP undertakes a wide variety of activities to bring the international scientific

community together to promote understanding of the Earth system.

Priorities for calendar years 2004 and 2005 included launching the Integrated

Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Processes Study, the Global Land Project, and the

Ocean Research in Earth System Science project; restructuring the task force on

Earth System analysis; integration and modeling; enhancing links to the observation

community (e.g., via the Integrated Global Observing Strategy); assimilating data into

models; and contributing to and supporting ESSP.

DIVERSITAS. DIVERSITAS is the international global research program for the

study of biodiversity science.The program is predicated on the understanding that it is

essential to characterize and understand ecosystems in order to fully understand the

sensitivity and adaptability of those ecosystems. Such understanding of ecosystem

composition, function, vulnerability, and resilience is critical to determining the

potential impacts of a variety of potential environmental perturbations, including

climate change.This understanding is at the heart of U.S. support of the DIVERSITAS

program and biodiversity science in general.The DIVERSITAS program is supported

by U.S. scientists involved in its core projects and related activities, and by CCSP

support for the secretariat’s central coordination, outreach, and other roles.

DIVERSITAS is now focusing on the implementation of its 2002 Science Plan,

which articulates the structure and scientific objectives of DIVERSITAS for the next

decade. In 2004, DIVERSITAS published implementation plans for two of its three

core projects and worked on establishing an International Project Office (IPO) for each

of these projects.The bioDISCOVERY project, dedicated to “taxonomy, monitoring,

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and drivers of biodiversity change,” established an IPO in Caracas,Venezuela, which

opened in September 2004.The ecoSERVICES project is dedicated to “biodiversity,

ecosystem functioning, and services.”The bioSUSTAINABILITY project, dedicated to

the “science at the basis of conservation and sustainable development,” has funded and

established an IPO in the United Kingdom.The first DIVERSITAS Open Science

Conference is scheduled to take place in Oaxaca, Mexico, in November 2005.

International Human Dimensions Programme. IHDP is the major international

program that coordinates research related to human contributions and responses to

global change. IHDP and other international programs provide international coordination

of research on a variety of climate-relevant issues and provide important leadership in

developing interdisciplinary research frameworks for other national and international

programs. IHDP has garnered substantial scientific interest in research on the human

dimensions of global change involving a number of U.S. scientists and agencies.

IHDP is implemented through its four established core research projects – Global

Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS), Institutional Dimensions of

Global Environmental Change (IDGEC), Industrial Transformation (IT), and LandUse Land-Cover Change (LUCC) – as well as a number of joint efforts with the other

major international global change research programs.The LUCC project is engaged in

synthesizing much of the research that has been undertaken, highlighting research

products and activities, because it will be phased out at the end of 2005. GECHS,

IDGEC, and IT are entering their second phase and priorities for the next 5 years for

these projects are being discussed within IHDP.

IHDP initiated an internal mid-term review of its main contributions to key

questions of global change research in 2003.The review includes a comprehensive

synthesis of IHDP’s contributions to cross-cutting questions on Vulnerability/

Resilience/Adaptation and Thresholds/Transitions regarding climate change. In addition

to IHDP’s internal assessment, the program’s sponsors (ICSU and the International

Social Science Council) are undertaking an external assessment of IHDP to be finalized

in late 2005.The Sixth Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global

Environmental Change Research Community took place in Bonn, Germany, from 9-

13 October 2005.

World Climate Research Programme.With its focus on climate prediction and

determining the extent to which human activity influences climate, the WCRP directly

addresses CCSP goals in climate change research. As a result, the United States and

U.S. scientists have long been supportive of the WCRP’s extensive activities, including

hosting the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project office, the

International Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Project Office,

and the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) data center.

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The WCRP was established in 1980, under the joint sponsorship of the WMO and

ICSU, and has also been sponsored by UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic

Commission since 1993.The two major objectives of the WCRP are to determine the

extent to which climate can be predicted and the extent of human influence on climate.

To achieve these objectives, the WCRP promotes essential research into the basic

behavior of the physical climate system, and its relation to the broader Earth system

and the needs of society. Outlined below are examples of activities from the WCRP’s

CLIVAR Programme, GEWEX, and the SPARC project.

The First International CLIVAR Science Conference was held on 21-25 June 2004

in Baltimore, Maryland. More than 640 scientists from 56 different countries attended,

making it the largest WCRP conference to date. It addressed a number of themes central

to CCSP efforts including short-term climate prediction; monsoons; the challenge of

decadal prediction; understanding long-term climate variations; the role of the oceans

in climate; human influence on climate; and application of climate science.

GEWEX is an international program within the WCRP initiated to observe,

understand, and model the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes in the atmosphere, at

the land surface, and in the upper ocean.There is large overlap between GEWEX’s

foci and those of CCSP, including a component to extend research products and

results to applications. GEWEX has panels concentrating on “Radiation,”

“Hydrometeorology,” and “Modeling and Prediction.” Each panel consists of

researchers from the global community. As an example, the GEWEX Americas

Prediction Program, supported by NOAA and NASA, is considered a component of

the Hydrometeorology panel of GEWEX, which helps coordinate similar international

projects (called Continental-Scale Experiments).

Major outputs of GEWEX include the International Satellite Cloud Climatology

Project, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, the Global Water Vapor Project,

and the International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project I and II data sets. A

critical current program of GEWEX is the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period

that collects in situ, satellite, and model data necessary for critical climate research

objectives and monsoon system studies. In recognition of interest in GEWEX, the

United States hosts the International GEWEX Project Office.

The WCRP established the SPARC project in 1992 to consolidate knowledge on

the role that the stratosphere plays in Earth’s climate system.The initial goal of

SPARC was to stimulate research in areas connecting the stratosphere and climate,

which had not been receiving sufficient attention during the earlier international

research focus on stratospheric ozone.

SPARC has initiated the GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project, is compiling a

stratospheric reference climatology against which model results can be compared

using global satellite data, and is providing best estimates of the temporal variability of

climate forcing due to changes in stratospheric ozone and aerosols.The United States

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hosts the SPARC data center, whose objective is to facilitate data exchanges between

participating scientists.

International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research

(IGFA).Through participation in IGFA, the United States is able to engage

representatives from 20 national funding agencies with responsibility for funding

global change research.Through annual plenary meetings, regular steering committee

and staff group meetings, and other activities, member agencies are regularly informed

about global change research programs, new initiatives, research infrastructure, and

related issues.Topics of mutual interest are identified, and solutions determined and

implemented through the relevant national processes, and, in some cases, through

coordinated international effort.The United States, represented by Dr. Margaret Leinen,

NSF, was elected Chair of the group for calendar years 2005 and 2006. During its

chairmanship, the United States intends to maintain and improve communication

internationally between agencies that fund global change research.

SysTem for Analysis Research and Training (START). START provides an

international framework for outreach and capacity building by establishing and fostering

regional networks of scientists and institutions in developing regions of the world.These

networks conduct regional environmental change research, assess the vulnerabilities

to and impacts of that change, and provide information to policymakers. In the course

of their work, these networks enhance the scientific capacity of the regions in which

they operate.

START has accomplished much during its relatively short existence. START has

established five regional centers throughout Asia, Africa, and Oceania and has conducted

over 70 regional meetings and training workshops. Sixty research collaborations are in

process, many of them linked to U.S. institutions, such as IRI, the National Center for

Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and various universities. Some 64 young scientist,

136 visiting scientist, and 24 doctoral fellowship awards have been made. Approximately

1,000 developing country scholars participate in START activities annually.

The quality of climate change science in the United States has

benefited extraordinarily from these linkages with developing country

scientists throughout the world, particularly in understanding

potential impacts,coping and adaptation potentials, and strategies for

building greater scientific and institutional capacities.The presence of

young scientists from developing counties in many U.S. universities

has also advanced American scientific and assessment capacities.

The United States determined that START’s capacity building and

outreach efforts are sufficiently important to its interests that it

hosts the international START secretariat in Washington, D.C.

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Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI).The IAI is an

intergovernmental treaty organization established in 1994 to promote collaborative

research to understand and predict the integrated impact of present and future global

change.The Institute allows the Western Hemisphere’s scientists and their institutions

to participate in collaborative research programs that they would not otherwise be able

to afford, and allows regional observation coverage efforts that directly contribute to

the goals of CCSP.

During FY 2005, the IAI carried out a merit-based peer review of proposals for a

second round of Collaborative Research Networks (CRN). During FY 2006, this

$10 million, 5-year program will begin funding approximately 10 networks involving

over 50 scientists from 14 countries in projects ranging from the effects of climate

change on emissions in mega-cities to ocean circulation changes in the South Atlantic.

Each of these projects explicitly includes physical and social sciences in a closely

integrated effort to provide information to decisionmakers, to train students as

multidisciplinary Earth systems scientists, and to contribute to research efforts of the

major global change research networks like the Earth Systems Science Partnership

(DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP, and WCRP).The IAI is a member of the international

scientific planning committees of the 2005 open meetings of IHDP and DIVERSITAS.

At the Organization of American States Ministerial Summit in Lima, Peru, ministers

of science and technology endorsed the IAI as a hemispheric initiative to be supported

and strengthened. In addition to providing support for the CRN-2 program, the

United States, through CCSP and NSF sponsorship of the IAI, will support a set of IAI

scholarships for IAI-member state students in the Advanced Studies Programs at

NCAR in FY 2006.

Under the leadership of the newly elected director, Dr. Holm Tiessen of the

University of Göttingen, the IAI will continue its series of highly successful training

institutes, now entering their sixth year. In FY 2005, two institutes were held. In

October 2004, jointly with the IHDP, the IAI organized a Global Environmental

Change Institute on Globalization and Food Systems in Costa Rica, and an Institute on

Urbanization and Global Environmental Change in Latin America in Mexico City. In

FY 2006, two additional institutes will be held: a Training Institute on Vulnerability

Associated with Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Americas in Asunción,

Paraguay, and jointly with the Pan-American Health Organization, a Training Institute

on Climate and Health in the Americas in Kingston, Jamaica.

The Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN).The APN’s

Scientific Programme Group and Intergovernmental Meeting (IGM) in April 2005

marked the end of APN’s first decade of activity with a number of significant actions.

These meetings reviewed and approved the Evaluation Report that had been prepared

covering the APN’s first decade and, building on this evaluation, the meetings

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approved the APN’s Second Strategic Plan covering the period 2005 to 2010.The

IGM approved 24 projects for implementation in 2005-2006 under the APN regular

program and an additional four projects for implementation under the APN program

on Scientific Capacity Building and Enhancement for Sustainable Development in

Developing Countries (CAPaBLE). One of the CAPaBLE projects, the Pacific Islands

Institute on Climate and Extreme Events, has begun a series of in-country training

programs in Samoa and Kiribati.The APN also recently launched its two calls for

proposals for this year under its regular program and its CAPaBLE program.

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI).The

NEESPI is a strategically evolving program of internationally supported Earth systems

science research, which has as its foci issues in northern Eurasia that are relevant to

regional and global scientific and decisionmaking communities. During 2004, the

NEESPI developed a Science Plan (available at <neespi.gsfc.nasa.gov>. More and

more partners in the United States, Europe, and Asia are getting involved in NEESPI

activities.A U.S. Interagency Science Review meeting on NEESPI was held in

December 2004.The goal was to brief representatives of U.S. and European agencies

on the NEESPI Science Plan and attract more partners to NEESPI activities.

A boreal-zone data capacity workshop was held during 2004 and a non-boreal

zone workshop is planned.The outcome of these workshops will be a comprehensive

inventory of available space-borne and ground-based data sets for the region.This will

facilitate preparation of a NEESPI Implementation Plan anticipated in the 2005-2006

time frame.The first NEESPI Science Session was held at the 2004 American

Geophysical Union Fall meeting in San Francisco.

The NEESPI Science Team is being formed and the first projects for this team were

selected in 2005 as a result of the Carbon Cycle Science NASA Research

Announcement. More projects are likely to be selected in 2005 and 2006 from the

proposals in response to the Water and Energy Cycle NASA Research Announcement,

which included Terrestrial Hydrology and Land-Cover/Land-Use Change programs.

The NEESPI leadership is working on formally including projects funded by other

U.S. agencies and the European Commission under NEESPI auspices.

BILATERAL COOPERATION IN

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

In June 2001, President Bush committed the United States to developing with our

international partners an effective and science-based response to the issue of climate

change.Today the United States remains committed to working with others, including

both developed and developing country partners, to promote cooperative and

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collaborative approaches to address the global challenge of climate change.To that

end, the U.S. Department of State is leading a major interagency effort to advance

international cooperation in climate change science and technology.

Since June 2001, the United States has launched bilateral climate partnerships with 15

countries and regional organizations that, combined with the United States, account

for almost 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Partnerships have been established

with Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,

Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), the European Union, Germany, India,

Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, and South

Africa.These bilateral initiatives seek to build on key elements of CCSP and CCTP,

including research, observations, data management and distribution, and capacity

building.

Substantive project-level work plans are now in place with each of these countries.

Successful joint projects have been initiated in areas such as climate change science;

clean and advanced energy technologies; carbon capture, storage, and sequestration;

and policy approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The United States is also

assisting key developing countries in efforts to build the scientific and technological

capacity needed to address climate change.

Highlights from 2004 include a number of highly successful workshops convened

under the auspices of the U.S. bilateral climate partnerships. Of particular note were

the workshops held in cooperation with Japan, India, and Italy.Through the U.S.-Japan

High Level Consultations on Climate Change, the United States and Japan hosted a

workshop on the nexus of energy and climate issues, which took place in March 2004

in Kuala Lumpur, also in cooperation with the Government of Malaysia. In July 2004,

the United States and India convened a workshop on climate change science in

Manesar, India.Topics discussed at the workshop included seasonal forecasting,

radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols, measurement and monitoring

infrastructure enhancement, and ocean observations. In October 2004, the United

States and Italy held a workshop on climate science and clean energy technologies in

Venice, Italy.

Over the coming year, two key objectives for the bilateral activities will be the

continued advancement of results-oriented programs and the fostering of substantive

policy dialogs within all 15 of the bilateral climate change partnerships. In order to

broaden U.S. cooperative efforts to advance a practical and effective global response to

climate change, the United States will expand outreach and support to the developing

country community, utilizing a regional approach where feasible.

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ADDITIONAL CLIMATE-RELATED INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES

11th U.S.-Japan Workshop on Global Climate Change.The United States and

Japan, through the U.S.-Japan Agreement on Cooperation in Research and

Development in Science and Technology, have conducted a series of climate-related

workshops since 1990.These workshops are planned and managed by the CCSP

Interagency Working Group on International Research and Cooperation and on the

Japanese side by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology.

The series has covered a wide variety of mutually agreed topics including Land-Use/

Land-Cover Change (Fourth Workshop, held in 1996), Health and the Environment

(Eighth Workshop, held in 2000), Climate and Water (Tenth Workshop, held in 2003),

and many others.There have been many follow-up activities and publications as a

result of this highly successful workshop series.

Planning is currently underway for the 11th Workshop, “Biodiversity, Ecosystem

Function, and Dynamic Human-Nature Interactions,” which will focus on the

interactions among biodiversity, ecosystem function, and global change; summarize

the recent achievements by ecological studies in the United States and Japan; and

discuss how to advance U.S.-Japan collaborations in the future.This workshop will

result in recommendations to improve long-term ecosystem monitoring,

intercomparison of ecological models, establishment of a biodiversity database,

satellite monitoring, and other topics. Future joint cooperative projects in this field

between the United States and Japan will also be discussed.

Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. On July 27,

2005, the United States joined with Australia, China, India, Japan, and South Korea to

create a new Asia-Pacific partnership on clean development, energy security, and climate

change.This new results-oriented partnership will allow our nations to develop and

accelerate deployment of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies to meet national

pollution reduction, energy security, and climate change concerns in ways that reduce

poverty and promote economic development.The six Asia-Pacific partners will build

on our countries' strong history of common approaches and demonstrated cooperation

on clean energy technologies.

Regional Cooperation on Global Change Research in Africa. A workshop on

Regional Cooperation on Global Change Research in Africa was held on 22-24

September 2005 in Nairobi, Kenya, under the aegis of the ESSP. Over 50 scientists from

23 countries across Africa met with scientists from other countries to consider needs

and opportunities for such regional cooperation. Participants supported developing an

African network for global change research to focus on the following suggested key

scientific themes: water and climate modeling; desertification; land degradation,

biodiversity, and food security; health and pollution; and marine ecosystems.

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APPENDIX

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE

PROGRAM PARTICIPATING

AGENCIES
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APPENDIX

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

PARTICIPATING AGENCIES

The following pages present information about the contributions to the CCSP of each

of the program’s participating agencies:

• Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Department of Commerce / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(DOC/NOAA)

• Department of Defense (DOD)

• Department of Energy (DOE)

• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• Department of the Interior / U.S. Geological Survey (DOI/USGS)

• Department of State (DOS)

• Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Smithsonian Institution (SI).

Principal Areas of Focus, Program Highlights for FY 2006, and Related Research are

summarized for each agency.
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service (CSREES)

Economic Research Service (ERS)

Forest Service (FS)

Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

Principal Areas of Focus

USDA conducts and sponsors a broad range of research that supports improved understanding of the

roles that terrestrial systems play in influencing climate change and the potential effects of global

change on agricultural, forest, and range systems, and on developing management systems to maintain

and enhance food, fiber, and forestry production under changing conditions. Specific components of

USDA’s research program seek to determine the significance of terrestrial systems in the global carbon

cycle, to promote the capture and use of methane emitted from livestock waste facilities for on-farm

power generation, to assess the potential of bioenergy as a substitute for fossil fuels, to identify

agricultural and forestry activities that can help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations and increase

carbon sequestrations, to quantify the risks and benefits arising from environmental changes to

agricultural lands and forests, and to develop management practices that can adapt to the effects of

global change, including potential beneficial and adverse effects. USDA’s research agencies also support

the Department in responding to the President’s directive to develop and implement accounting rules

and guidelines for carbon sequestration projects, and in contributing to the synthesis and assessment

reports identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

ARS’s national program on global change research addresses carbon cycle and carbon storage, trace gas

emissions and sinks, impacts of environmental changes on agricultural systems, and feedbacks among

agricultural systems, weather systems, and the water cycle. Ongoing research focuses on analyzing risks

and benefits associated with global change and developing management strategies to sustain agricultural

production and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas intensity (i.e., net greenhouse gas emissions per

unit of commodity produced). New research being proposed will enhance ARS’s program by placing

additional emphasis on quantifying agricultural contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and soil

carbon sequestration and developing practices to mitigate these greenhouse gas emissions and increase

soil carbon sequestration while maintaining land in productive agricultural uses. Environmentally

friendly and economically feasible alternatives to the use of stratospheric ozone-depleting methyl

bromide will be developed as a treatment to control pests.

CSREES will continue to support the USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Network Program

(UVMRP). Information from this research network is combined with satellite-based measurements to

provide an accurate climatological UV-B irradiance database to document long-term trends and to
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support research and assessment of the potential for damage to ecosystems.The program has been

providing ground-based support to NASA’s Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments,

by providing radiometer data that have been used to assess UV-B geographic distribution, trends, and

year-to-year variability in the United States. Since 2002, the NASA TOMS and AERONET (AErosol

RObotic NETwork) programs and USDA UVMRP have shared equipment, personnel, and analysis

tools to quantify aerosol absorption using ground-based radiation measurements. CSREES will continue

to support global change research through the National Research Initiative (NRI) Competitive Grants

Program and formula-funded programs. NRI includes programs for carbon and water cycles, land-use

and -cover change, ecosystem, and human dynamics research. CSREES is using the CCSP Strategic Plan

in formulating priorities under the NRI program and in shaping specific grant announcements.

The Forest Service has identified the following key issues for future program emphasis: (1) Improve

observations of forest carbon stocks and flows based on development and deployment of improved field

measurement techniques and measurements integration, and initiate a forest carbon-monitoring program

component of the interagency North American Carbon Program (NACP); (2) integrate observations

with process-level studies to better understand, forecast, and manage the relationships between forest

and rangeland systems and climate; (3) develop and help deploy forest management systems and

technologies that increase carbon sequestration, provide fossil-fuel offsets, enhance productivity, and

maintain environmental quality; (4) provide integrated prediction models of forest carbon dynamics;

and (5) improve technical information for forest greenhouse gas accounting rules and guidelines.

Related Research

In addition to research under the Climate Change Science Program, USDA maintains an active program

to improve measurement and accounting of greenhouse gases from agriculture and forestry systems.

USDA is developing technologies and practices to improve the utilization of biomass energy and biobased products.The Forest Service, NRCS, ARS, CSREES, and the Rural Development mission area

support biofuels and biomass-related research and development. NRCS and the Forest Service are

developing new measurement technologies, analytic techniques, and information management systems

to measure the benefits of conservation practices on carbon fluxes and greenhouse gas emissions.These

research and development activities are reported under the Climate Change Technology Program.

USDA also collects data on land use, resource conditions, and climate through the National Resources

Inventory, the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN), and

the Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) system.These networks provide critical data and information on

the status of land uses in the United States in support of CCSP research.
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE /

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Principal Areas of Focus

NOAA’s climate mission is: “To understand and describe climate variability and change to enhance

society’s ability to plan and respond.”The long-term climate efforts of NOAA are designed to develop

a predictive understanding of variability and change in the global climate system, and to advance the

application of this information in climate-sensitive sectors through a suite of process research,

observations and modeling, and application and assessment activities.

Climate activities in NOAA range significantly in terms of time and space scales for both research and

services. Products are developed to support a range of international, national, regional, and local

users. Specifically, NOAA’s research program includes ongoing efforts in observations, with an

emphasis on oceanic and atmospheric dynamics, circulation, and chemistry; understanding and

predicting ocean-land-atmosphere interactions, the global water cycle, and the role of global transfers

of carbon dioxide among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in climate change;

improvements in climate modeling, prediction, and information management capabilities; the

projection and assessment of variability across multiple time scales; the study of the relationship

between the natural climate system and society, and the development of methodologies for applying

climate information to problems of social and economic consequences; the relationship of climate to

coastal and marine ecosystems; and archiving, managing, and disseminating data and information

useful for global change research.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

Observations and Analysis

The goal of NOAA’s Climate Observations and Analysis effort is an integrated ocean and atmosphere

observing system in support of a predictive understanding of the global climate system.The NOAA

observing system will be fully integrated into the U.S. Integrated Earth Observing System (IEOS).This

will be implemented through a tiered and integrated observational network that provides sustained

global and U.S. monitoring of key climate-related parameters; an end-to-end data management system

to provide climate-quality information and respond to the projected data growth rates; and sophisticated

analyses to differentiate climate variability and change as a result of natural processes and human

activities.

Activities in FY 2006 will:

• Expand deployment of the U.S. component of the global Atmospheric and Ocean Observing System,

with emphasis on reduced uncertainty in sea level, sea-surface temperature, and ocean carbon.

• Achieve global coverage with the 3,000-float Argo array.

• Achieve a modest increase in the number of Global Upper Air Network (GUAN) and Global Surface

Network (GSN) stations.

• Increase the pilot Indian Ocean array with two additional moorings, for a total of five moorings in

FY 2006.
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• Collect upper ocean temperature data by maintaining expendable bathythermograph probes globally

along repeated ship track lines.

• Report on progress in developing a new atmospheric reanalysis data set to more fully document

weather and climate variability over the entire 20th century.

• Report on temperature trends in the lower atmosphere, and progress toward understanding and

reconciling differences in various estimates.

Climate Forcing

The goal of NOAA’s Climate Forcing activities is to provide the understanding needed to link emissions

to the radiative forcing of climate change.The specific aim is to attain a timely understanding of

atmospheric carbon dioxide trends—both natural and human-produced—and to provide timely

information on the climate roles of the radiatively important trace atmospheric species (e.g., fine

particle aerosols and ozone) needed to broaden the suite of non-carbon options available for climate

change policy support. A quantitative characterization of climate change forcing from greenhouse gas

species is needed for input to global climate models to optimize predictions of what climate changes

could result from policy decisions.

Activities in FY 2006 will:

• Continue implementation of the carbon cycle observing system.

• Estimate North American carbon dioxide uptake through new data and models.

• Expand the carbon cycle global network into under-sampled regions (e.g., Africa and South America).

• Conduct retrospective model simulations of the climate impacts due to 1980–2000 radiative forcing.

• Develop an instrument package for an airborne aerosol observatory.

• Conduct field and laboratory studies of factors that influence the radiative effect of aerosols.

• Continue the global ocean carbon inventory along cross-sections in the North Pacific.

• Expand the coastal carbon dioxide measurement network, which will provide information on

atmosphere-ocean carbon dioxide exchange and atmospheric carbon dioxide at the continental

boundary.

• Quantify the seasonal and interannual variations of air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes in the North

Atlantic and North Pacific via measurements of surface-ocean pCO2, conducted by research and

volunteer observing ships as they are underway.

Predictions and Projections

The goal of NOAA’s Climate Predictions and Projections component is to provide a seamless suite of

climate outlooks and projections on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal time scales

to facilitate management of risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

Activities in FY 2006 will:

• Run climate projections for research and assessment based on emission scenarios developed through

the Climate Change Technology Program. Likely case studies will include exploring the range of

plausible future environmental consequences of different emission rates resulting from combinations

of different technologies.

• Report on results of field experiments of processes influencing warm-season precipitation over the

southwestern United States, and prospects and needs for improving summertime rainfall forecasts

in this region.
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• Develop prototype methods for applying climate information to address practical challenges

associated with natural resource management and hazard mitigation.

• Support diagnostic studies that contribute to the planned Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment

(TACE) and Atlantic Marine ITCZ (AMI) process study of U.S. CLIVAR in the tropical Atlantic—

U.S. components of the international African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA)

project—to improve coupled models used for climate predictions.

• Support observing system simulation experiments for the planned Pacific Upwelling and Mixing

Physics process study, a contribution to U.S. CLIVAR.

Regional Decision Support

NOAA’s Regional Decision Support effort aims to help society mitigate climate-related risks by

translating the results of climate research into usable products for policymakers and decisionmakers,

and by delivering that climate information operationally.The activities address an increase in the

demand for traditional services (like routine seasonal forecasts and data products), accompanied by

new requirements for expanded drought information and an increased emphasis on forecasts of risks of

high-impact weather events associated with El Niño and La Niña, as well as sea-level inundation.

Activities in FY 2006 will:

• Initiate activities for mitigating the effects of drought through the National Integrated Drought

Information System (NIDIS).

• Conduct exploratory workshops for research and evaluation to develop sector research (e.g.,

coastal, sea-level rise, drought, agriculture).

• Develop curriculum and communication tools for teachers and decisionmakers.

• Support transition of research products to applications through the NOAA Climate Transition

Program.

Related Research

In addition to focused CCSP efforts, related activities include developing forecasts of changes in fishery,

coastal, and coral-reef resources in response to climatic changes in oceanic water mass distributions,

sea-surface temperature, sea-level rise, and coastal runoff; developing a prototype Arctic observing

system for monitoring sea ice, heat content, freshwater, and ecosystem indicators; enhancing prediction

and observation systems in support of weather and seasonal to interannual climate forecasts; determining

actual long-term changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States through long-term

(50+ years) operation of the U. S. Climate Reference Network; continuing to build out the

Comprehensive Large-Array Storage System (CLASS) to meet the growth in observational data from

satellite and radar systems; and facilitating the dissemination of global change information.

DOC’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) provides measurements and standards

that support accurate and reliable climate observations. NIST also performs calibrations and special

tests of a wide range of instruments and techniques for accurate measurements. NIST provides a wide

array of data and modeling tools that provide key support to developers and users of complex prediction

models.
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DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Defense—while not supporting dedicated global change research—continues a

history of participation in the Climate Change Science Program through sponsored research that

concurrently satisfies national security requirements and stated goals of the CCSP. All data and research

results are routinely made available to the civil science community. DOD science and technology

investments are coordinated and reviewed through the Defense Reliance process and published annually

in the Defense Science and Technology Strategy, the Basic Research Plan, the Defense Technology Area

Research Plan, and the Joint Warfighting Science and Technology Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

Satellite Sensors and Observations

As part of National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) operations,

DOD will fund 50% of the satellite and environmental sensor suites as a result of the convergence of

national remote-sensing programs. NPOESS will monitor global environmental conditions, and collect

and disseminate data related to weather, atmosphere, oceans, land, and near-space environment.The

NPOESS program is managed by the tri-agency Integrated Program Office run by DOC, DOD, and

NASA.

Global Observations and Models 

The Navy is a principal member of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP). Key

elements within NOPP are the Integrated Ocean Observing System Data Management and

Communications (DMAC) program, the Global Ocean Observation System (GOOS), the Global

Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), and the National Federation of Regional Associations

(NFRA).Within NOPP, a broad partnership of institutions is collaborating on developing and

demonstrating integrated ocean observations systems, data management systems, and eddy-resolving

real-time global- and basin-scale ocean prediction systems.The HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

(HYCOM) is part of the GODAE program.The systems will run efficiently on a variety of massively

parallel computers, and will include sophisticated techniques for assimilation of satellite altimeter

sea-surface height and sea-surface temperature data, as well as in situ temperature, salinity, and float

displacement.The goal of this project is to develop and implement a comprehensive data management

and distribution strategy that allows easy and efficient access to HYCOM-based ocean prediction

system outputs to coastal and regional modeling sites; to the wider oceanographic and scientific

community, including climate and ecosystem researchers; and to the general public, especially

students in intermediate and high schools.This is to be accomplished through a data-sharing system

using existing open source software packages to distribute data via the internet.The HYCOM Data

Sharing System is built upon two existing software components: the Open Project for a Network Data

Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) and the Live Access Server (LAS). OPeNDAP is the middleware that

provides uniform binary-level access to scientific data on the internet.

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Polar Regions Research

The CCSP Strategic Plan places priority on the polar and subpolar regions, which have exhibited more

rapid changes than the lower latitudes.The U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering

Laboratory (CRREL) responds to the needs of the military, but much of the research also benefits the

civilian sector and is funded by non-military customers such as NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, and State

governments. DOD research has examined impacts of climate change on retreating Arctic sea ice to

help define requirements for U.S. Coast Guard ice-breaking ships over the next 30 years. Satellite data

show that the extent of Arctic sea ice has decreased by about 10%, and the sonar data collected by U.S.

Navy submarines in the Arctic between 1957 and 2000 show the average ice thickness has decreased

between 33 and 42%.

CRREL and the University of Alaska are developing an internet-accessible Alaska Engineering Design

Information System (AEDIS)—an analytic toolkit for engineers that presents a broad array of geospatial

terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric environmental data in a Geographic Information System (GIS).

CRREL, in partnership with NSF and DOT has established a National Geotechnical Experimentation

Site (NGES) as a long-term study area for research on permafrost properties and its responses to

human and natural disturbances.

In response to the observations of the rapid pace of environmental change in the Arctic, DOD scientists

participate in the interagency Study of Arctic Environmental Change (SEARCH). CRREL scientists

have instrumented ice-observing buoys in the Arctic ice pack to monitor changes in ice thickness and

snow cover throughout the year.These buoys have also been incorporated into the NSF-sponsored

North Pole Environmental Observatory in the central Arctic, and are an integral part of the

International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), which has provided fundamental knowledge of the variations

in Arctic climate and circulation patterns over the last 25 years.

DOD scientists participated in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) to assess the ongoing and

future changes in Arctic climate and its impacts on people, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Monitoring

changes in the state of the ground continues to be of collective interest to DOD, NOAA, and USGS.

The Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) uses airborne instruments to retrieve snow pack, frozen

ground and water, and vegetation properties for monitoring water resources and hazards. NASA, DOD,

and NOAA are developing the 2010 HYDROS satellite mission to measure global soil moisture and

freeze-thaw cycles. Improved satellite remote-sensing techniques to monitor changes in the Arctic ice

pack are being developed by collaborative teams of agency researchers.

Scientists from CRREL and other institutions examined the seasonal evolution of albedo and the snow

and ice mass balance north of Barrow, Alaska, and determined that the observed rates of sea-ice surface

melting are typically at least twice as high as rates observed in the pack ice during the Surface Heat

Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) project referenced in the FY 2004-2005 edition of Our Changing Planet.

Techniques for high-resolution sea-ice model simulations have also been developed to understand the

formation of leads and ridges in Arctic ice cover and its relationship to atmosphere and ocean circulation.
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Related Research

Other DOD-sponsored research and supporting infrastructure, not described above, also contribute to

observing, understanding, and predicting environmental processes related to global change. Associated

research programs include theoretical studies and observations of solar phenomena, monitoring and

modeling of unique features in the middle and upper atmosphere, terrestrial and marine environmental

quality research, and energy conservation measures. DOD’s continued investment in environmental

infrastructure—such as the Oceanographic Research Vessel Fleet, CRREL, and the various services’

operational oceanographic and meteorological computational centers—will continue to provide data

and services useful to the CCSP.
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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Principal Areas of Focus

Research supported by DOE’s Office of Science is focused on the effects of energy production and use

on the global climate system, primarily through studies of climate response. Research includes climate

modeling, atmospheric properties and processes affecting Earth’s radiation balance (including clouds and

aerosols), and sources and sinks of energy-related greenhouse gases (primarily CO2). It also includes

research on consequences of climatic and atmospheric changes on ecological systems and resources,

development of improved methods and models for conducting integrated economic and environmental

assessments of climate change and of options for mitigating climate change, and education and training of

scientists for climate change research.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

DOE will continue the support of climate change research at its National Laboratories and other public

and private research institutions, including universities. In support of CCSP, the Office of Science

research program includes activities in four areas to provide the data and predictive understanding that

will enable objective, scientifically rigorous assessments of the potential for, and consequences of,

human-induced climate change: climate and hydrology, atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycle,

ecological processes, and human dimensions.

Climate and Hydrology

DOE will continue to develop, improve, evaluate, and apply fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea iceland surface general circulation models (GCMs) that simulate climatic variability and change over

decadal to centennial time scales. Climate modeling activities planned for FY 2006 will place particular

emphasis on analyzing climate feedbacks and sensitivity to natural and human-induced forcing, as well

as on enhancing climate modeling systems. DOE will lead the effort on the CCSP Synthesis and

Assessment Product 3.1, Climate Models: Model Sensitivities, Feedbacks, and Uncertainties.

In FY 2006, DOE will complete the suite of Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Parallel

Climate Model (PCM) ensemble simulations of climate change projections under various forcing

scenarios as part of the U.S. contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Fourth Assessment Report. IPCC model simulations from major national and international high-end

modeling centers will be archived at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)/Program for

Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and made accessible to the climate research

community. DOE will continue to support model development of the CCSM to incorporate atmospheric

chemistry and coupled biogeochemistry, in addition to improved physics and dynamics. DOE will also

continue ongoing development of high-resolution comprehensive coupled GCMs that incorporate more

accurate and verified representations of clouds and other important climatic processes. Finally, DOE

will continue support of innovative approaches to climate model development—for example, the

geodesic grid model intended to lead to a prototype climate model that could potentially overcome

some of the problems and limitations of current generation climate models.
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Collection and analysis of data from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud and

Radiation Test Bed (CART) sites will continue in FY 2006 to improve understanding of the radiative

transfer processes in the atmosphere and to formulate better parameterizations of these processes,

especially cloud and aerosol effects for use in climate models. DOE will also report on results of the

Mixed Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), a major field experiment to improve scientific

understanding of the dynamic processes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, including cloud microphysical

processes and radiative transfer through Arctic clouds.The ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) will be deployed

in Niger, Africa, in FY 2006 as part of the field phase of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis

(AMMA) to obtain atmospheric and radiation data on meteorological conditions ranging from deep,

tropical convective clouds in the humid tropical air masses prevalent in the wet season to the aerosolladen dry air masses found during the dry season. AMMA field data will provide unique opportunities

to evaluate and improve the parameterization schemes used in climate models across a wide range of

meteorological conditions. A measurement campaign around the ARM site in Darwin, Australia, is in

planning for FY 2006 that will focus on the effects of cirrus clouds on the transfer of radiation in the

atmosphere.This so-called Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) will

employ multiple research aircraft and balloon-borne meteorological sensors from an array of sites to

measure cloud properties and their impacts on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere throughout

the storm life cycle as well as the atmospheric state. Data from this experiment will be used to both

evaluate and test how well existing models simulate cloud properties and to improve the modeling of

cloud properties and their effects on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Carbon Cycle

In FY 2006, DOE’s Atmospheric Science Program will continue research begun in FY 2005 to reduce

uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Research will include modeling, instrument

development, laboratory measurements, and field measurements.The scope of research will include

sources of particles and gaseous precursors; transport of particles and gaseous precursors on local

to regional and greater spatial scales; concentrations of gas-phase aerosol precursors; aerosol

characterization, including optical properties, size distribution, number concentrations, humidity

effects, cloud condensation nuclei properties, single particle composition, and physical and chemical

characterization of carbonaceous particles; transformations, including gas-phase transformations,

condensed-phase and surface transformations, gas-to-particle conversion, new particle formation,

evolution of aerosol size and composition, aerosol dynamics, aerosol activation, size distribution,

precipitation development, and in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging; and atmospheric radiation.

In FY 2006, DOE’s Atmospheric Science Program will analyze data from its FY 2005 marine stratus

field campaign in collaboration with ARM, and will conduct a major campaign in collaboration with

other CCSP agencies to examine and characterize changes in aerosol composition, size distribution,

light scattering coefficient, absorption coefficient, optical depth, soot-specific absorption, and radiative

fluxes at the surface in a large megacity plume. Results from these campaigns will be utilized to develop

or improve detailed models of aerosol processes required by the climate modeling community.These

activities support CCSP Strategic Plan Goals 2 and 3, and address Questions 3.1 and 3.2.

DOE’s carbon cycle research will continue to improve understanding of the role and importance of

terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the global carbon cycle.The research in FY 2006 will address

the research questions and elements described in Chapter 7 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. DOE will

continue its contributions to the North American Carbon Program (NACP) through the support of
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experimental field studies, observations, and modeling of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Major

commitments in FY 2006 include continued support for a variety of experimental studies, syntheses

of some of the carbon cycle research results, and support of new studies to better understand the

carbon impacts of climate-related effects on ecosystems.These efforts will include the development of

an integrated framework for using AmeriFlux measurements and ecosystem models to understand

terrestrial carbon cycling processes. It will yield information on ecosystem states and carbon sinks in

real-time, and will be an effective tool for investigating fundamental ecological processes that are

difficult to observe directly. DOE will also support a model-based comparison of “bottom up”

(distributed ecosystem models driven by land surface and meteorological information) and “top down”

(inferring spatially distributed surface fluxes from atmospheric measurements) approaches to estimating

ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at the regional scale, focusing on the Southern Great Plains of the

United States. Predicted temporally and spatially resolved gross and net carbon dioxide fluxes will be

made available to researchers to help evaluate NACP-related results for regional carbon dioxide

exchange, climate, and land use. DOE will also support research to incorporate biogeochemical and

physiological responses and feedbacks associated with climate change in terrestrial ecosystem models

and to link the ecosystem models with climate simulation models.

In ocean carbon cycle research, DOE will continue to enhance the understanding, in mechanistic

terms, of the biological controls on net carbon dioxide uptake by the ocean (from the atmosphere).

In FY 2006, the ocean science program will place an emphasis on understanding what the ecological

and biogeochemical effects have been of the net uptake of carbon dioxide by the ocean (and related

chemical changes in seawater) during the past 2 centuries, and what ecological and biogeochemical

effects may result from further net carbon dioxide uptake during the coming decades.The program

will continue to take advantage of the availability of data on newly sequenced diatom and marine

bacterial genomes and will incorporate findings on microbially mediated transformations of carbon

and nitrogen into models of the ocean carbon cycle.

Ecological Processes

DOE will continue to design, implement, and maintain large-scale and long-term experimental field

manipulations of environmental factors affected by energy production in important North American

ecosystems.This includes support of the Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experimental facilities for

study of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon

dioxide and/or other trace gases such as ozone.The goal is to understand, and be able to predict, effects

of environmental change and variability on the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.The

research focuses on the physiology, growth, and reproduction of plants and microbes; nutrient and

water cycling in ecosystems; plant community dynamics; plant-microbe interactions; and acclimation

and adaptation of plants, microbes, and whole ecosystems to environmental change and variability.

Final data collection will occur in FY 2006 from the large-scale Throughfall Displacement Experiment

(TDE) located in a deciduous hardwood forest in eastern Tennessee.TDE—a continuous study begun in

1993 of whole-forest responses to altered precipitation—has served as an important source of data for

the development and testing of a wide range of ecosystem models. In FY 2006, the precipitation

manipulations will be ended and extensive characterization of the effects of 13 years of chronic changes

in the precipitation inputs to the forest ecosystem will be completed. An ongoing synthesis of existing

data, model projections, and conceptual hypotheses of the interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial

ecosystems and the climate system is expected to be completed in FY 2006.The synthesis will draw on
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output from workshops, reviews of existing scientific literature, and new model calculations to provide

an initial definition of the requirements for ecosystem observations needed to quantify ecological

feedbacks to climate and atmospheric composition.The definitions will be directed in part at enhancing

the use of existing observing systems, but will also consider needs for the development of new observing

capabilities.The activities to be completed in FY 2006 will focus on the western United States, but are

expected to provide a solid scientific base for similar activities directed at other regions.

Experimental research will also be continued in FY 2006, including field manipulations of temperature,

precipitation, carbon dioxide concentration, and/or enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition in a

boreal forest, arid shrubland, temperate old field grassland undergoing succession, and a temperate

deciduous forest. Such experiments will provide the data and information needed to evaluate (test) the

ability of ecological models to realistically predict effects of environmental change and variability on

terrestrial ecosystems; such models form the basis of most assessments of potential effects of

environmental change on ecosystems.The research initiative implemented in FY 2004 dealing with

“scaling” in ecological systems will also be continued in FY 2006.This initiative will continue to examine

how quantitative information obtained at the level of macromolecules (e.g., genes and enzymes) can be

used to understand and predict how processes and states of whole terrestrial ecosystems would be

affected both directly and indirectly by natural and human-induced environmental changes, such as

climatic changes caused by energy production.

Human Dimensions

The DOE human dimensions program will continue its support of fundamental research to develop and

improve data, models, and methods for use by others to analyze and assess the economic, social, and

environmental implications of climate change and of various potential policy options for mitigating or

adapting to climate change. In FY 2006, research will continue on climate change technology innovation

and diffusion, with particular emphasis on understanding forces that will assist the prediction of the

penetration of new technologies to non-Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

(OECD) countries such as China. Projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions

will be improved by analyzing demographic variables.The research is using three case studies: the

United States, China, and Indonesia.The emphasis will continue to be on household composition,

using survey data to estimate relationships with energy use.The objective is to improve projections of

energy demand in integrated assessment models by taking into account variations in energy use across

household types. Ongoing investigations of factors that have affected the adoption in the past of

technologies for controlling nitrous oxide and sulfur emissions from power plants in the United States

will provide new information to help infer future adoption of new carbon emission technologies.

DOE’s human dimensions research in FY 2006 will also include analysis and application of explicit

models of methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions.This will result in revised supply

curves and improved estimates of costs associated with emission reductions in one or more of the

integrated assessment models used to assess the economic costs and benefits of alternative climate

change technology options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

DOE will also continue support of its Global Change Education program in FY 2006, including support

of undergraduate and graduate students through the DOE Summer Undergraduate Research

Experience (SURE) and the DOE Graduate Research Environmental Fellowships (GREFs). Support

will also be continued for the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) to enable it to
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respond to data and information requests from users all over the world who have a need for data on,

for example, greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations.

Related Research

DOE plays a major role in carbon sequestration research to reduce atmospheric concentrations of

energy-related greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, and their net emissions to the atmosphere.

The research builds on, but is not part of, the CCSP. It focuses on both developing the scientific

information needed to enhance the natural sequestration of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide in

terrestrial and ocean systems, and assessing the potential environmental consequences and ancillary

benefits of that enhanced sequestration. It also includes research to develop biotechnological approaches for sequestering carbon either before or after it is emitted to the atmosphere. Funding for DOE’s

carbon sequestration research is part of the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP). CCTP also

provides related research funding to support a balanced and diversified portfolio of advanced technology

research and development, focusing on energy-efficiency enhancements; low-GHG-emission energy

supply technologies; carbon capture, storage, and sequestration; and technologies to reduce emissions

of non-CO2 gases.Together, CCSP and CCTP will help lay the foundation for future progress. Advances

in the climate change sciences under CCSP can be expected to improve understanding about climate

change and its impacts. Similarly, advances in climate change technology mitigation under CCTP can be

expected to bring forth an expanded array of advanced technology options at a lower cost that will

reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

National Cancer Institute (NCI)

National Eye Institute (NEI)

National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS)

National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)

Principal Areas of Focus

The Department of Health and Human Services supports a broad portfolio of research related to

environmental health and the health effects of global change. Included in the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program is research supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that focuses on

exposure to ultraviolet (UV) and near-UV radiation.The principal objectives of the four NIH institutes

supporting this research include an increased understanding of the effects of UV and near-UV radiation

exposure on target organs (e.g., eyes, skin, immune system), the molecular changes and genetic

susceptibilities that lead to these effects, and the development of strategies to prevent the initiation or

promotion of disease before it is clinically defined.

In addition to UV and near-UV radiation research, HHS also supports other research related to the

health effects of global change. For example, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

(NIEHS) supports research on the health effects of (1) air pollution and temperature, (2) agricultural

chemicals, and (3) materials used in new technologies to mitigate or adapt to climate change. In addition,

the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is engaged in a number of activities related to

climate change, such as emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Such related research is growing

in importance.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

The NIEHS program supports grants and intramural projects that investigate the effects of UV exposure

on the immune system, aging process, sensitive tissues such as the retina and skin, and methods to

reduce these harmful effects. Examples of research include projects that will characterize the DNA

damaging and mutagenic properties of UV-A radiation, a component of the solar spectrum that has

been linked to melanoma, then attempt to find a molecular link between exposure to sunlight and

melanoma.

The National Toxicology Program (NTP) funded and operated by NIEHS is carrying out a systematic

analysis of commercially available sunscreens to characterize several nanoscale metal oxides (e.g.,

titanium, zinc) currently used with regard to their dermal penetration and photocatalytic action.

Careful attention is being paid to determining critical aspects of size, surface area and chemistry,

crystallinity, and biopersistence in relation to both dermal penetration and potential for toxicity in the

presence or absence of simulated solar light.

The National Eye Institute (NEI) supports studies on the impacts of UV radiation on the eye (retinal

damage as well as corneal capacity). A major initiative is underway to determine how and why eye
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cataract develops and to search for ways to prevent or slow the progression of cataract, an age-related

eye disease that affects 17-20 million people globally.This project is investigating the role of UV-B

radiation, which has been implicated as a specific risk factor in cataract development. Another important

area of research is the understanding of certain detoxification systems in the eye and how they combat

damage from UV-B radiation.The goal of this effort is to identify drugs that might have therapeutic or

preventative applications. One study is investigating how corneal epithelial cells prevent damage to

their DNA by reactive oxygen species generated by UV light and whether the protection against damage

provided by nuclear ferritin in corneal epithelial cells can be extended to other cell types in which

reactive oxygen species may have deleterious effects.

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) is supporting a wide range of studies to characterize the etiology,

biology, immunology, and pathology of a variety of changes in the skin (morphological effects that

might precede skin cancer), including photoaging, non-melanoma skin cancers, and melanoma caused

by exposure to UV radiation. In addition, NCI is supporting studies to reduce the risk of melanoma

and non-melanoma skin cancer through the development of clinically useful primary and secondary

prevention strategies. One study is developing, implementing, and evaluating solar protection programs

for middle school children.The interventions target school, community, recreation and beach settings,

primary care practices, and parents.The interventions are based on theories that include social influence,

psychological factors and cognitive decisional factors in adolescence. Other studies are looking at the

role of UV light exposure in the development of second malignant neoplasms in cancer survivors.

The National Institute of Arthritis, Musculoskeletal, and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) supports basic and

clinical research on the effects of UV-A and UV-B radiation on skin. Examples of studies include

research on the role of overexposure to UV light in the development and exacerbation of vitiligo, a

pigmentary disorder that leaves patients with disfiguring white skin patches that increase in size over

time. Another patient-oriented research project is studying the molecular mechanisms for the

exaggerated response to UV-B of a polymorphism that is strongly associated with a photosensitive form

of lupus erythematosus. Another study continues work on the effect of UV-R on Langerhans cells, starshaped cells in the germinative layer of the epidermis, and on immunity in skin. Using Gene Array

technology, scientists have identified 52 genes that are consistently up-regulated by UV-R. In the next

5 years, they plan to study the extent to which signaling pathways mediate UV-induced alterations in

Langerhans cell function. Other studies are targeted toward understanding the molecular mechanisms of

cell replication in maintaining genomic fidelity in the presence of DNA-damaging agents such as UV-B.

Related Research

Renewed concern about emerging and reemerging infectious diseases has prompted increased attention

to a variety of insect and tick-borne diseases whose incidence would be affected by environmental

change. One area of research, conducted by CDC, is the use of remote sensing to study ecologic systems

relevant to transmission of specific infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases. Examples of

research by CDC using remote-sensing and other geographic/spatial technologies include studies of

hantavirus, plague, and Chagas disease. Sin Nombre virus, carried by the deer mouse, causes hantavirus

pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas. Since 1994, CDC has collaborated with local academic

institutions to study the effect of climatic variation, such as that associated with El Niño Southern

Oscillation (ENSO), on changes in population densities of deer mice.The goal of the U.S.-based studies
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is to develop a model using satellite imagery to predict increases in risk of HPS at specific locations

across the western United States.These studies have already helped CDC predict and post warnings of

increased disease risk in the southwestern United States in 1998 and 1999. Funding will allow part of

this study to continue through the end of FY 2006.

A CDC-sponsored study of plague in the four corners area of the U.S. Southwest also employs remotesensing technology to develop a predictive model for increased plague transmission in the area. Finally,

CDC is applying GIS and ecological niche analysis using GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set

Prediction), a form of spatial/temporal analysis, to study the eco-epidemiology of Chagas disease in

Guatemala, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, and to improve collaborative efforts aimed at disease

surveillance and control in these regions.

CDC also sponsors broader research related to climate change and infectious diseases. CDC’s Division

of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases is currently collaborating on studies of how the transmission of

vector-borne diseases may be affected by the environment. Its Guatemala field station is studying the

impact that adverse climatological events, such as El Niño and Hurricane Gilbert, have had on the

transmission dynamics of malaria and other diseases.These catastrophic events create tremendous

changes that can simultaneously create new vector habit, reduce the levels of sanitation, and overwhelm

the ability of the public health system to respond. Other CDC units are collaborating on studies of the

effects of climate change on dengue on the U.S.-Mexico Border.
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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR /

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Principal Areas of Focus

DOI/USGS research contributes directly to CCSP strategic goals, principally through studies designed

to understand the interactions between climate, earth surface processes, and ecosystems on time scales

ranging from years to millennia. By combining the expertise of hydrologists, geologists, biologists,

geographers, and remote-sensing scientists within one organization, USGS supports truly interdisciplinary

research in the following major focus areas:

• Studies of climate history and impacts on landscapes and ecosystems

• Hydrologic impacts of climate change

• Carbon cycle science

• Land-use and land-cover changes

• Decision support research and development.

The goal of global change research at USGS is to improve knowledge and understanding of the Earth’s

past and present climate and environment, the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate, and

the sensitivity and adaptability of natural and managed ecosystems to climate changes.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

Earth Surface Dynamics

The Earth Surface Dynamics program has the following research objectives:

• Document the nature of climatic and environmental change and variability on time scales ranging

from years to millennia.

• Develop fundamental understanding of interactions between climate, earth surface processes, and

marine and terrestrial ecosystems on time scales ranging from years to millennia.

• Seek to understand impacts of climate change and variability on landscapes and marine and

terrestrial systems.

• Model and anticipate the effects of climate change and variability on natural and human systems.

• Provide information on the relative sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of ecosystems,

resources, and regions to climatic change and variability to support land and resource management

and policy decisions.

Geographic Analysis and Monitoring

Research is directed to the understanding of the rates, causes, and consequences of landscape change

over time.This knowledge is used to model processes of landscape change and to forecast future

conditions. Studies are designed to document and understand the nature and causes of changes

occurring on the land surface; to assess the impacts of land surface changes (including urbanization) on

ecosystems, climate variability, biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and human health; and to develop the

best methods to incorporate science findings in the decisionmaking process.
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Hydroclimatology

Research on effects of climate change and variability on the hydrologic cycle focuses on characterizing,

and developing predictive methods related to, the hydroclimatology of North America.This includes

identification of seasonal variations in regional streamflow in relation to atmospheric circulation (for

regional streamflow prediction and flood/drought hazard assessment); the linkage between atmospheric

circulation and snowpack accumulation (for forecasting spring and summer water supply in the western

United States and for flood forecasting), as well as glacier mass balance; and the physical and chemical

variability in riverine and estuarine environments in relation to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic

conditions (to discriminate natural from human-induced effects on such systems). It also includes

documenting the long-term behavior of hydrologic systems in response to past climatic variations and

changes (from decades to hundreds of thousands of years) as well as more recent (decadal) hydrologic

trends.The program maintains an active effort to develop improved representations of terrestrial

hydrologic processes in general circulation and regional climate models. In broad terms, these activities

are aimed at improving statistical and deterministic methods for predicting hydrologic hazards and

related environmental conditions on monthly to interannual time scales.

Carbon Cycle

USGS conducts a broad range of carbon cycle research focused on North America, which includes:

• Assessment of Carbon Stocks and Soil Attributes—Determining the spatial distribution of carbon in

the terrestrial environment in relation to historical natural and human processes, as a basis for

initializing dynamic models of soil carbon. Measuring soil chemistry has focused on the Mississippi

and Delaware River basins, the latter in collaboration with the USDA Forest Service Forest

Inventory and Analysis Program.

• Carbon Sequestration in Sediments—Studying the re-deposition of eroded soils and sediments (and

their associated organic carbon) which sequesters large quantities of carbon, buried at the base of

slopes and in wetlands, riparian areas, and reservoirs.

• Carbon Sequestration in Wetlands—Field and laboratory process studies, spatial analysis, and

modeling are being used in wetlands of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Prairie Pothole

Region to quantify the influence of land-use change on carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas

emissions and to identify environmental factors controlling carbon sequestration.These studies will

provide recommendations and decision support tools to resource managers to maximize carbon

sequestration benefits consistent with DOI goals for restoration of ecosystem services such as habitat,

flood storage, and water quality.

• Landscape Dynamics and Vegetation Change—Examining the long-term dynamics of vegetation

change in relation to climate change and variability. A detailed history of vegetation change in the

western United States is being constructed. Past changes are used to model vegetation response to

climatic variables.This knowledge is applied in forecasting the effects of future climate change on

the distribution of vegetation in the western United States.

• Fate of Carbon in Alaskan Landscapes—Expanding process studies and modeling to better understand

both the historic and modern interactions among climate, surface temperature and moisture, fire,

and terrestrial carbon sequestration. Cold region forests (boreal ecosystems) contain large carbon

reserves that are highly susceptible to changes in climate.

• Exchanges of Greenhouse Gases,Water Vapor, and Heat at the Earth’s Surface—Employs field

measurements, remote sensing, and modeling of carbon fluxes to develop estimates of gross primary

productivity, respiration, and net ecosystem exchange at flux tower sites, and uses remotely sensed

data to extrapolate these carbon fluxes to ecoregions.
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Changes in Ecosystems

USGS global change research on ecosystems aims to determine the sensitivity and response of

ecosystems and ecological processes to environmental factors, including existing climate and natural

and anthropogenic impacts, at the local, landscape, regional, and continental level; to assess and predict

how future environmental conditions may affect the structure, function, and long-term viability of

natural and human-impacted ecosystems; and to provide scientific knowledge and technologies needed

for conservation, rehabilitation, and management of sustainable ecosystems. Current USGS ecosystems

research focuses on:

• The relative sensitivity of biological resources and geographic areas of the Nation to global changes

in order to detect early changes and prioritize action

• The causal mechanisms underlying ecosystem responses to global change

• The role of scaling in understanding and managing the spatial and temporal responses of biological

systems to global change

• Development and testing of management options for adapting to the effects of global change and

minimizing undesired effects of global change.

Satellite Data Management and Dissemination

USGS operates and continually enhances the capabilities of the Center for Earth Resources Observation

System (EROS) to serve as the National Satellite Land Remote-Sensing Data Archive, by maintaining

existing data sets, adding new ones, and converting older data sets from deteriorating media to modern,

stable media.The archive’s holdings are used for environmental research, land management, natural

hazard analysis, and natural resource management and development with applications that extend well

beyond U.S. borders.The worldwide community of archive users includes personnel in Federal, State,

local, and tribal governments, researchers at academic institutions, private enterprise, and the public.

Land Use and Land Cover

The Land Cover Characterization Program was started in 1995, to address national and international

requirements for land-cover data that were becoming increasingly sophisticated and diverse.The goal is

to be a national and international center for excellence in land-cover characterization, via:

• Development of state-of-the-art multiscale land-cover characteristics databases used by scientists,

resource managers, planners, and educators (global and national land cover)

• Contribution to the understanding of the patterns, characteristics, and dynamics of land cover

across the Nation and the Earth (urban dynamics and land-cover trends)

• Pursuit of research that improves the utility and efficiency of large-area land-cover characterization

and land-cover characteristics databases

• Serving as a central facility (Land Cover Applications Center) for access to, or information about,

land-cover data.

Related Research

DOI also sponsors contributing research programs addressing the collection, maintenance, analysis, and

interpretation of short- and long-term land, water, biological, and other geological and biological

processes and resources through dispersed observing networks; research in land use and land cover,

including creation of maps and digital data products; and inventorying and monitoring of biological

habitats, resources, and diversity.
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DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Principal Areas of Focus

Through DOS annual funding, the United States is the world’s leading financial contributor to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the principal international organization for the assessment of scientific,

technical, and socioeconomic information relevant to the understanding of climate change, its potential

impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Recent DOS contributions to these organizations

provide substantial support for global climate observation and assessment activities in developing

countries. DOS also works with other agencies in promoting international cooperation in a range of

bilateral and multilateral climate change initiatives, including: the Carbon Sequestration Leadership

Forum, the Group on Earth Observations, the Methane-to-Markets Partnership, the International

Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy, and the Generation IV International Forum.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

During FY 2006, DOS will continue to support the activities of the UNFCCC and the IPCC, including

development of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and will advance the bilateral and multilateral

partnerships for global climate science, technology, and observation that were undertaken in the

FY 2004-2005 time frame.
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Principal Areas of Focus

DOT uses existing science to improve decisionmaking tools in four primary areas. First, DOT is

examining the potential impacts of climate variability and change on transportation, which includes

research to examine the effects that climate change and variability may have on transportation

infrastructure and services. Second, DOT supports research to increase energy efficiency and reduce

greenhouse gases.Third, DOT supports efforts to improve transportation greenhouse gas data and

modeling. Finally, in a new area of emphasis, DOT may consider institutional capacity issues that support

the implementation of multimodal and intersectoral greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

DOT’s virtual Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting is undertaking several new

research projects expected to be completed in FY 2006:

• Workshop on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Hydraulics and Hydrology and Transportation—A

partnership with North Carolina State University to consider guidelines for adapting to the potential

consequences of climate change.

• Reducing the Greenhouse Gas and Air Quality Impacts of Freight Transportation—Identify measures

to lower greenhouse gas emissions from freight.

• Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Benefits of Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Vehicles in the United

States—Improve the understanding of the greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential of heavyduty natural gas and diesel vehicles by evaluating emissions data from a previously untapped data

source at West Virginia University.

• Assessing State Long-Range Transportation Planning Initiatives in the Northeast for Climate Energy

Efficiency Benefits—Identify tools and methodologies to help northeastern States reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the long-range planning process.

• Total Fuel Cycle Emissions for Marine Transportation: Development of a “Well-to-Hull” Modeling

Tool—Develop a “well-to-hull” fuel cycle emissions modeling tool for marine transportation.

• Feasibility of Utilizing the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) as a Broad Integrating

Framework for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Modeling in the Transportation Sector—Investigate the

feasibility of integrating NEMS with other models to enhance the analytical capabilities beyond

those of any individual model.

The DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting has initiated Phase I of CCSP

Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7, Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation

Systems and Infrastructure–Gulf Coast Study.This project, initiated under the President’s Climate

Change Research Initiative, is a joint research effort with USGS.The first phase will provide an

integrated overview of relative infrastructure sensitivities in the region.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has a number of ongoing efforts to improve the modeling of

aviation emissions of all kinds, including greenhouse gases.The Office of the Secretary is funding several

projects to improve the relationship between transportation and climate change, including a Best
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Practices Guidebook for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Freight Transportation.The Guidebook will be

designed for use by companies and individual operators.

Related Research

Many of DOT’s programs have ancillary climate benefits.The Road Weather Management Program—

within the Federal Highway Administration’s Office of Operations—seeks to better understand the

impacts of weather on roadways.The Corporate Average Fuel Economy Program seeks to reduce energy

consumption by increasing the fuel economy of cars and light trucks. FAA has a number of ongoing

operational and research initiatives that will help reduce the amount of greenhouse gases produced by

aviation in the United States and internationally. DOT’s funding programs for congestion mitigation,

hydrogen-powered transportation, air quality improvement, and transit developments all reduce

emissions, including greenhouse gases.
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AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Principal Areas of Focus

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) is an innovative application of science to

efforts to alleviate risks related to existing climate variability or the potential for climate change.

Through FEWS NET, USAID provides decisionmakers—both in the United States and in other parts of

the world—with information designed to inform decisions that more effectively respond to drought

and food insecurity. In the past, FEWS NET focused activities in 18 drought-prone countries across

Sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2003, FEWS NET began expanding coverage to selected countries of Asia and

Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition to monitoring a wide variety of socioeconomic indicators

to identify levels of food insecurity, FEWS NET monitors and analyzes remotely sensed data and

ground-based meteorological, crop, and rangeland observations to track the progress of rainy seasons

and crop production in semi-arid regions, in order to identify early indications of reduced food

availability and access.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

In FY 2006, FEWS NET will continue to provide seasonal monitoring in relationship to analyses of

food insecurity conditions in 20 countries in Africa and three countries in Central America, as well as

in Haiti and Afghanistan. A major element of this work is strengthening information networks that

collect and analyze data to reveal intra- and interannual weather variability trends as they relate to

longer term climate variability.
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

Principal Areas of Focus

EPA’s Global Change Research Program has its primary emphasis on evaluating the potential consequences

of global change (particularly climate variability and change) on air quality, water quality, ecosystems,

and human health in the United States.This includes improving the scientific basis for evaluating effects

of global change in the context of other stressors, and evaluating the risks and opportunities presented

by global change. EPA uses the results of these studies to investigate adaptation options to improve

society’s ability to effectively respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change.The

program is multidisciplinary and emphasizes the integration of the concepts, methods, and results of

the physical, biological, and social sciences into decision support frameworks.This work is consistent

with and closely coordinated with the CCSP Strategic Plan.

The planning and implementation of EPA’s program is integrated by the CCSP with other participating

Federal departments and agencies to reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and add value

to products and deliverables produced under the CCSP’s auspices. EPA coordinates with other CCSP

agencies to develop and provide timely, useful, and scientifically sound information to decisionmakers.

This includes support for the production of CCSP synthesis and assessment products called for in the

CCSP Strategic Plan, and the development of decision support tools for resource managers and

decisionmakers. Also, as called for by the National Research Council in 2001, EPA supports and fosters

projects that link knowledge producers and users in a dialog that builds a mutual understanding of what

is needed, what can credibly be said, and how it can be said in a way that maintains scientific credibility.

EPA’s program also makes significant contributions to the high-level interagency bilateral climate

dialogs that are led by the Department of State. EPA’s program supports research on climate impacts

and adaptation in China, Italy, Canada, and India.These activities focus on evaluating the potential

consequences of climate change and adaptation strategies.

EPA’s program has four areas of emphasis: air quality, water quality, ecosystems, and human health.The

results of studies done in these areas are integrated at particular places (such as watersheds).

Air Quality

Few studies have investigated the effect of global change on air quality. Studies are planned that will

examine the potential consequences of global change on air quality in the United States.The long-term

goal of this focus area is to provide the approaches, methods, and models to quantitatively evaluate the

potential effects of global change on air quality, and to identify technology advancements and adaptive

responses and quantify their effect on air quality.

Water Quality

Water quality is affected by changes in runoff following changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration

and/or changes in land use.The program is investigating the possible impacts of global change (climate

and land-use change) on water quality using a watershed approach.The water quality studies will

contribute to and benefit from human health and ecosystems studies.
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Ecosystems

EPA’s mission is not only to protect human health but also to safeguard the natural environment. EPA

provides environmental protection that contributes to making communities and ecosystems diverse,

sustainable, and economically productive. Consistent with this goal, EPA’s Global Change Research

Program has planned three research activities that evaluate the effects of global change on aquatic

ecosystems (which include lakes, rivers, and streams; wetlands; and estuaries and coastal ecosystems),

invasive nonindigenous species, and ecosystem services. EPA’s investigations of the effects of global

change on aquatic ecosystems will use as input the research being done by other CCSP agencies on

marine and terrestrial ecosystems.Therefore, EPA’s ability to successfully complete its assessments

depends crucially upon the ability of other CCSP agencies to complete their related research activities.

Human Health

Since health is affected by a variety of social, economic, political, environmental, and technological factors,

investigating the potential health impacts of global change is a complex challenge.As a result, health studies

in EPA’s Global Change Research Program go beyond basic epidemiological research to develop integrated

health evaluation frameworks that consider the effects of multiple stresses, their interactions, and human

adaptive responses.Along with health sector studies conducted in conjunction with other CCSP agencies,

there are research activities focused on the possible consequences of global change on weather-related

morbidity and vector- and water-borne diseases. In addition, the results from air quality studies will be

used to evaluate health consequences.

Intramural and extramural research contribute to all of EPA’s investigations. In an attempt to capitalize on

expertise in the academic community, a significant portion of the program’s resources is dedicated to

extramural research grants administered through the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program.The

STAR program focuses on science to support investigations of the consequences of global change for air

quality, ecosystems, and human health in the United States. EPA will continue to coordinate closely with

other CCSP agencies doing human dimensions research to identify the specific topics that should be

emphasized within the STAR program.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

EPA will continue to make significant contributions to the ongoing research activities of the CCSP. EPA

strives to understand relative risks in the context of multiple stressors, at multiple scales and multiple

levels of biological and institutional organization. EPA-sponsored investigations will continue to be

conducted through public-private partnerships that actively engage researchers from the academic

community, decisionmakers, resource managers, and other affected stakeholders. Highlights of specific

activities that will be undertaken by EPA in FY 2006 follow:

• Support the CCSP commitment to generate 21 synthesis and assessment products by leading or coleading three analyses and supporting seven others.

• Support the high-level interagency bilateral climate dialogs with China, Italy, Canada, and India that

are being led by the Department of State.

• Produce a report that identifies those threatened and endangered species that may be at greater risk

from climate change.

• Evaluate the effects of climate-related stressors on coral reef ecosystems. Research will be conducted

in American Samoa and the Florida Keys.
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• Study the management implications of global change and interacting stressors on the establishment

and expansion of invasive species.

• Conduct case studies of climate change effects on bioindicators and biocriteria programs.

• Investigate the effects of changes in climate and land use on non-point source pollution in estuaries.

• Study current land conservation practices and provide a tool for projecting future distributions of

land protection as a climate change adaptation mechanism to restore or maintain ecosystem services.

• Produce a report that examines the possible implications of global change for combined sewer

overflow events.

• Develop a synthesis report detailing the health effects of airborne allergens associated with climate

change.

Related Research

In addition to focused CCSP activities, EPA conducts research that contributes to the characterization and

understanding of risks to ecosystems and to human health.The ecosystems-based research is designed to

understand and predict ecosystem exposure, responses, and vulnerabilities to high-risk chemicals and nonchemical stressors (e.g., invasive species, genetically altered organisms) at multiple scales of biological

organization and geographic scales.The research in human health is oriented toward assessing the

cumulative health risks to humans (e.g., cancer, reproductive, cardiovascular)—including high-risk

subpopulations (e.g., children)—from chemical stressors emanating from multiple sources. Both of these

major research areas can be affected by climate change.
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NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

Principal Areas of Focus

NASA’s Earth science programs are essential to the implementation of three major Presidential initiatives:

Climate Change Research (June 2001), Global Earth Observation (July 2003), and Ocean Action

(December 2004).The first is the subject of the Climate Change Science Program and this document.

The second is related, and focuses on national and international coordination of Earth observing

capabilities to enhance their use in meeting important societal needs.The third uses NASA’s observing

technologies and knowledge of Earth as a system to advance ocean research and applications with

partner agencies.

NASA Earth science programs are aimed at understanding the Earth system and applying Earth system

science to improve prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards in partnership with other Federal

agencies and international space and research programs. NASA’s Research Strategy orchestrates observing

and modeling programs to address the question “How is the Earth changing, and what are the

consequences for life on Earth?” Five subordinate questions describe NASA’s Earth system science

approach via a paradigm of variability, forcing, response, consequence, and prediction:

• How is the global Earth system changing?

• What are the primary causes of change in the Earth system?

• How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced change?

• What are the consequences of change in the Earth system for human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes in the Earth system?

NASA’s portfolio includes observations, research, analysis, modeling, and advanced technology

development, in order to answer selected science questions, and benchmarking decision support

resources to ensure society receives the benefits of this research.

NASA pioneered the interdisciplinary field of Earth system science, which explores the interaction

among land, oceans, atmosphere, ice, and life.To study these interactions, NASA has developed and

deployed the Earth Observing System (EOS) and related satellites, and suborbital and surface-based

sensors—collecting, processing, archiving, and distributing these data through the EOS Data and

Information System (EOSDIS). EOSDIS is the largest “e-science” system in the world. In 2004, EOSDIS

was accessed by over 2 million distinct users, with over 200,000 users receiving 34 million data

products. Following the Earth system science construct, NASA has organized its research into six

science focus areas.The table on the facing page identifies these six areas and how they align with the

CCSP research elements.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

In FY 2006, NASA will make significant progress in three high-priority CCSP research areas: aerosols,

carbon, and polar regions. NASA will begin routine acquisition and analysis of data on the threedimensional structure of clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere from the Cloudsat and Calipso satellites.

NASA will continue to be a leader in the North American Carbon Program (NACP), contributing to
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the observations, field campaigns and experiments, and model development needed to reduce scientific

uncertainties of carbon sources and sinks in North America. NASA will continue development and

scientific preparations for space-based measurements of global atmospheric carbon to detect global

carbon dioxide sources and sinks worldwide. NASA will continue to develop new ways to measure seaice thickness using ICEsat data and new innovative instrumentation currently under development.

NASA will develop new observations and models of other critical polar processes to better understand

their behavior and interactions with global climate.

NASA will implement a recently restructured computational Earth system modeling program through

an open, competitive process to focus its efforts on the key science challenges of the decade ahead.

NASA will also implement computational modeling efforts, selected through similar competitive

processes, to exploit its new Project Columbia—the second largest supercomputing cluster in the

world (behind IBM’s Blue Gene).

In FY 2006, NASA will make further strides in enhancing Earth observation and monitoring. NASA

and the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Integrated

Program Office will complete development of the NPOESS Preparatory Project Mission for launch

in early FY 2007.This satellite mission will extend key measurements from NASA’s Terra and Aqua

satellites as well as demonstrate new remote-sensing instruments for NPOESS. Following the path of

Cloudsat and Calipso, three new satellites will be under development to observe atmospheric carbon

dioxide, global ocean surface salinity, and global soil moisture. NASA will continue its work through

the Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations to transition responsibilities for mature

measurements to operational systems to assure long-term data continuity.

Related Research

NASA’s other science focus areas (Weather, Earth Surface and Interior, and Sun-Earth Connection) seek

to understand and predict Earth system change.The NASA-sponsored Socio-Economic Data Center

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENTS NASA EARTH SCIENCE

FOCUS AREAS

Atmospheric Composition Atmospheric Composition

Climate Variability and Change Climate Variability and Change

Global Water Cycle Global Water and Energy Cycle

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

Global Carbon Cycle

Ecosystems

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

Human Contributions and Responses

Weather

Earth Surface and Interior
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(SEDAC) archives and distributes data used in CCSP’s Human Dimensions research area. NASA also

manages an Earth Science Applications program in partnership with other Federal agencies, State and

local governments, academia, and industry to test new uses of remote-sensing data to solve practical

societal problems in twelve applications of national priority:

National Application Partner Agencies

Renewable Energy DOE, EPA

Agricultural Efficiency USDA, EPA

Carbon Management USDA, EPA, DOE, USGS, USAID

Aviation DOT/Federal Aviation Administration

Homeland Security Department of Homeland Security, National Governors Association,

USDA, USGS, NOAA, DOD

Ecological Forecasting USGS, USDA, USAID

Disaster Preparedness Federal Emergency Management Agency, USGS, NOAA, USDA

Public Health Centers for Disease Control, DOD, NIH, EPA, USGS, NOAA

Coastal Management NOAA, EPA

Invasive Species USGS, USDA

Water Management Bureau of Reclamation, USGS, EPA, USDA 

Air Quality EPA, NOAA, USDA, DOT/Federal Aviation Administration
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NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Principal Areas of Focus

NSF programs address global change issues through investments in challenging ideas, creative people,

and effective tools. In particular, NSF global change research programs support research and related

activities to advance the fundamental understanding of physical, chemical, biological, and human

systems and the interactions among them.The programs encourage interdisciplinary activities and focus

particularly on Earth system processes and the consequences of change. NSF programs facilitate data

acquisition and information management activities necessary for fundamental research on global

change, and promote the enhancement of models designed to improve understanding of Earth system

processes and interactions, and to develop advanced analytic methods to facilitate basic research. NSF also

supports fundamental research on the general processes used by organizations to identify and evaluate

policies for mitigation, adaptation, and other responses to the challenge of varying environmental

conditions.Through its investment, NSF contributes to CCSP by providing a comprehensive scientific

foundation for many of the synthesis and analysis products identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

Atmospheric Composition

NSF programs in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry will continue to address the composition of

the atmosphere and its relation to climate variability and change. Studies of the transformation and

transport of gaseous constituents and aerosols provide insights into the radiative and cloud nucleating

properties of the atmosphere. Studies of the global distributions of greenhouse gases will provide input

for future scenarios of radiative forcing.

Climate Variability and Change

NSF programs continue to emphasize climate variability and change as a major issue.This research element

supports observational campaigns and numerous analytical and modeling activities. Ocean science efforts

will focus on changes in ocean structure, circulation, and interactions with the atmosphere to improve our

current understanding of the processes and models that address future changes, particularly those that

may happen abruptly. Major support will continue to permit the Community Climate System Model to

improve model physics and parameterizations that will lead to more comprehensive models incorporating

interactive chemistry and biology. Studies of paleoclimatology will continue to be supported as a means to

provide baseline data on natural climate variability from the past and from key climatic regions.These

studies will improve our understanding of the natural variability of the climate system and in particular

will enable reconstructions and evaluations of past environmental change as inputs for model validations.

The Global Water Cycle

NSF supports a broad-based effort to understand all aspects of the global water cycle. Relevant programs

will continue to explore ways to optimally and effectively utilize the wide range of hydrological data

types—continuous and discrete time and space information from a variety of platforms for research

purposes. Information from process studies will be used to refine models through scaling and

parameterizations of sub-grid processes, particularly the fluxes of water through the Earth system.

Planning for and the initiation of several prototype hydrologic observatories, both physical and virtual,
are being carried out. Science and Technology Centers will continue to work with stakeholders

responsible for water management and with educators to translate research advances into useful products,

particularly exploring issues related to decisionmaking in the face of uncertainty as applied to the

urbanizing and drought-prone Southwest.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

Several NSF programs continue to address key aspects of land-use and land-cover change through

studies in ecological rates of change and related species diversity; Arctic systems; temporal variability;

water and energy influences on vegetative systems; and diverse human influences on land utilization.

Global Carbon Cycle

NSF supports a wide variety of carbon cycle research activities. Investigations examine a range of topics in

terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their relations to the carbon cycle. Research in terrestrial settings

will explore, for example, carbon storage, delivery of carbon by rivers, carbon fluxes from high-latitude

soils, and carbon export from mountains and submarine groundwater discharge. In the oceans, clathrate

stability, abiotic carbon cycling, and the upper ocean carbon budget will be addressed. Carbon cycle studies

will integrate observational data into models to provide insights for understanding key aspects of the global

carbon cycle.

Ecosystems

Several NSF programs address terrestrial and marine ecosystems through observational, experimental,

modeling, and laboratory studies.The collection of ecosystem data in terrestrial and marine systems

through the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) projects provide a major source of information.

The Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics program will continue to study the impact of global ocean

changes on marine ecosystems through specific synthesis activities focused on the North Atlantic and

the North Pacific.

Human Contributions and Responses

NSF supports basic research on the processes through which people (individually, in groups, or through

organizations) interact with natural environmental systems. Programs support projects that focus on

decisionmaking under uncertainty associated with climate change.These projects are expected to produce

new knowledge and tools that should facilitate improved decisionmaking by various stakeholder groups

trying to deal with uncertainties associated with future climate variability and change.

Related Research

NSF will continue to support “contributing” research on broader topics that are closely related to global

and climate change.These include, inter alia, studies of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, ecosystems,

paleoclimatology, and human dimensions, all of which add substantively to the specific programs supporting

CCSP objectives. NSF has the computing infrastructure in place and under enhancement to enable

more effective utilization of the research information. In addition, NSF supports projects that integrate

research with education on global and climate change to demonstrate that scientific visualization—

incorporated into inquiry-based learning—can enable students to develop an understanding of complex

global change phenomena. Students address these issues by evaluating multimedia data at various spatial

and temporal resolutions, reviewing scientific evidence, and considering social concerns that contribute

to global and climate change debates.

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SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION

National Air and Space Museum (NASM)

National Museum of Natural History (NMNH)

National Zoological Park (NZP)

Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO)

Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC)

Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI)

Principal Areas of Focus 

Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change research is conducted at the Smithsonian

Astrophysical Observatory, the National Air and Space Museum, the Smithsonian Environmental

Research Center, the National Museum of Natural History, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,

and the National Zoological Park. Research is organized around themes of atmospheric processes,

ecosystem dynamics, observing natural and anthropogenic environmental change on daily to decadal

time scales, and defining longer term climate proxies present in the historical artifacts and records of

the museums as well as in the geologic record at field sites.The Smithsonian Institution program strives

to improve knowledge of the natural processes involved in global climate change, to provide a longterm repository of climate-relevant research materials for present and future studies, and to bring this

knowledge to various audiences, ranging from scholarly to the lay public.The unique contribution of

the Smithsonian Institution is a long-term perspective—for example, undertaking investigations that

may require extended study before producing useful results and conducting observations on sufficiently

long (e.g., decadal) time scales to resolve human-caused modification of natural variability.

Program Highlights for FY 2006

Atmospheric Composition

At SERC, measurements will be made of spectral UV-B in Maryland (>25-year record), Florida,

Arizona, and other sites in the United States.These data will be electronically disseminated to meet the

needs for assessing the biological and chemical impact of varying ultraviolet radiation exposures.

During FY 2006, results will be used to update trends in surface ultraviolet radiation, and will be

reported in national meetings and peer-reviewed publications.

Climate Variability and Change

Research at NASM will emphasize the use of remote-sensing data to improve theories of drought, sand

mobility, soil stability, and climate change in the eastern Sahara. Studies at NMNH and STRI will focus

on the paleoecology of climate change.

Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems

Several Smithsonian programs will examine biological responses to global change. At SERC, research

will be conducted on the responses of global ecosystems to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations

(also a contribution to the Global Carbon Cycle program). A retrospective analysis of the 18-year data

set is expected to be completed in FY 2006.This SERC program will also focus on invasive species, and
solar UV-B. Biodiversity education and research will be performed at STRI, NMNH, and NZP.Tropical

biodiversity research programs monitor global change effects through repeated sampling of flora and

fauna in tropical forests, and identifying the physical and biological processes of growth and decline of

species. Other studies on ecosystem response to increasing habitat fragmentation will be conducted at

NZP.

Human Dimensions of Global Change

The general public and research community will be informed of global change research conducted by

Smithsonian and other CCSP agencies via exhibits. During FY 2006, exhibits developed by staff at

NMNH, SERC, and SAO will be displayed at NMNH in the “Forces of Change: Global Links” series

concerning the atmosphere and the Arctic, with accompanying educational programs and ancillary

information accessible through the internet.

Related Research

Much of the global change research performed at the Smithsonian is not supported by direct Federal

appropriation (i.e., CCSP cross-cut funding) and instead is supported by other public and private

sources (including other CCSP-participating agencies).These projects are nonetheless organized around

the CCSP program elements, thus amplifying the scope and impact of research supported directly by

CCSP. At SAO, there are continued studies on the relationship of solar activity and programs that will

contribute to global climate observations, enhance climate modeling systems, and reduce scientific

uncertainties of aerosol effects. SERC and STRI receive agency support via competitive grants programs

to perform studies of ecosystem responses to increased carbon dioxide, UV-B, and invasive species.

Other contributing activities include research conducted by several units within the Smithsonian in a

variety of habitats concerning natural and human-induced variations in species, populations-communities,

and ecosystems.These studies help clarify the relative importance of global change effects as one of

several agents of ecological change. Studies of environmental change over long time periods are aided

by the Institution’s collections. Used by researchers around the world, these materials provide raw

data for evaluating changes in the physical and biological environment that occurred before human

influences.

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CONTACT INFORMATION

Climate Change Science Program Office

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Suite 250

Washington, DC 20006

202-223-6262 (voice)

202-223-3065 (fax)

information@climatescience.gov

information@usgcrp.gov

http://www.climatescience.gov/

http://www.usgcrp.gov/

THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM INCORPORATES THE U.S. GLOBAL

CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE.

To obtain a copy of this document, place an order at the Global Change Research

Information Office (GCRIO) web site: http://www.gcrio.org/orders.

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U.S. Climate Change Science Program

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C. 20006 USA

+1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax)

http://www.climatescience.gov/