U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Funding & Awards
 Large-Scale Deep Point Process Models for Crime Forecasting
Award Information
Awardee
              UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS ANGELES
Award #
              2018-R2-CX-0013
Funding Category
              Competitive Discretionary
Location
                    LOS ANGELES, CA
Congressional District
              33
Status
              Closed
Funding First Awarded
              2018
Total funding (to date)
              $149,999
Original Solicitation
              NIJ FY18 Graduate Research Fellowship in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics
Description of original award (Fiscal Year 2018, $149,999)
Statement of the Problem. Recent years have seen a surge of large, complete crime records and related information collected by law enforcement. The volume of data combined with the development of quantitative techniques has boosted research in predictive policing, which helps to prevent crime and evaluate police intervention. To improve the effectiveness of this promising method, a natural question to ask is what makes a good predictive policing model. Given the size of the data, scalable methods are essential for real-time forecasting and evaluation. Moreover, crime records contain rich information aside from spatio-temporal stamps, such as gang involvement, brief description of crime, and intervention attempts. As a result, a multivariate representation of the crime events is useful in modeling and can utilize additional data. Finally, in crime forecasting, the ability to generalize the algorithm is ideal since we are more interested in crimes that we have not seen yet. We propose a unified model that keeps all three properties of a good predictive policing model, including scalability, generalization ability as well as the use of the multivariate model.
Partnerships. We are collaborating with the Gang Reduction & Youth Development program (GRYD) in Los Angeles and Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), using their experiences in real-world problems and local crime and gang intervention data on our models.
Research Design and Methods. We will extend current self-exciting point process models to nonparametric and multivariate case to incorporate covariates such as gang information and crime description. The estimation of this model will be fast for extreme-scale data. The graph structure of multivariate model allows us to combine graph-based deep neural network to improve the generalization ability.
Analysis. We apply our models on publicly available crime data from major cities and data from LAPD and GRYD that has been scrubbed of all personal identifiers. These data can help us to train our models and test our hypotheses on the dynamics of crime. After that we will validate the generalization ability of our model on new crime data sets. Finally, we want to provide evaluation reports to GRYD gang intervention prgram according to our analysis.
Products, Reports, and Data Archiving. Findings will be published in a thesis, peer-reviewed articles, and presentations at professional conferences. Open-source code of this model will be made available for real-time crime forecasting and the synthetic or even anonymized data will be provided for reproducibility. "Note: This project contains a research and/or development component, as defined in applicable law," and complies with Part 200 Uniform Requirements - 2 CFR  200.210(a)(14).
ca/ncf



  
Grant-Funded Publications
        
                      Fast estimation of multivariate spatiotemporal Hawkes processes and network reconstruction
                  Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction

  
Date Created: September 27, 2018
    
          Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              Current Funding
    
      
            
            
            
      Forthcoming Funding
    
      
            
            
            
      Expired Funding
    
      
            
            
            
      Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
    
      
            
            
            
      Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
    
      
            
            
            
      Fellowship & Student Programs
    
      
            
            
            
      Travel Scholarships
    
      
            
            
            
      NIJ Challenge ProgramSimilar Awards
        
                      NIJ Innovations in Measuring Community Perceptions Challenge Winner: Community PoliSense
                  Can Law Enforcement Training Address Racial and Ethnic Disproportionality? An Experimental Evaluation of Effective Youth Interactions
                  Study of Factors Influencing Mass Spectral Data Comparison
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov