United States 

Department of 

Agriculture 

Office of the 

Chief Economist 

World Agricultural 

Outlook Board 

Long-term 

Projections Report 

OCE-2007-1 

February 2007 

USDA Agricultural 

Projections to 2016 

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee 

World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair 

Economic Research Service 

Farm Service Agency 

Foreign Agricultural Service 

Agricultural Marketing Service 

Office of the Chief Economist 

Office of Budget and Program Analysis 

Risk Management Agency 

Natural Resources Conservation Service 

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension 

Service

USDA Long-term Projections
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Ask for USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016 (OCE-2007-1). 
Washington, D.C. 20250-3812 

USDA Long-term Projections

February 2007

i

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural 

Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural 

Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2007-1, 110 pp. 

Abstract 

This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2016. Projections cover 

agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm 

income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding 

macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The report 

assumes that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather, further outbreaks of plant or animal 

diseases, or other factors affecting global supply and demand. The Farm Security and Rural 

Investment Act of 2002, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and the Agricultural Reconciliation Act 

of 2005 are assumed to remain in effect through the projections period. The projections are one 

representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the report 

provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result 

under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through 

December 2006, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. 

Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect increased demand for biofuels, particularly 

in the United States and the European Union (EU). U.S. agricultural projections reflect large 

increases in corn-based ethanol production, which affects production, use, and prices of farm 

commodities throughout the sector. Expansion of biodiesel use in the EU raises demand for 

vegetable oils in global markets. Additionally, steady domestic and international economic 

growth in the projections supports gains in consumption, trade, and prices. Although export 

competition is projected to continue, global economic growth, particularly in developing 

countries, provides a foundation for gains in world trade and U.S. agricultural exports. 

Combined with increases in domestic demand, particularly related to growth in ethanol 

production, the results are generally higher market prices and cash receipts. Rising production 

expenses and lower government payments offset some of the gains in cash receipts and other 

sources of farm income, but overall net farm income remains strong through the projections. On 

average, consumer food prices are projected to rise more slowly than the general rate of inflation 

over the next decade, although increases in meat prices push food prices up faster in some years. 

Keywords: Projections, crops, livestock, ethanol, trade, farm income, food prices. 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and 

activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital 

status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, 

reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance 

program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require 

alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) 

should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). 

To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence 

Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410 or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). 

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 
ii USDA Long-term Projections

Contents 

Page

A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections ........................................................................ iii 

Long-term Projections on the Internet ........................................................................................... iv 

Contacts for Long-term Projections............................................................................................... iv 

Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... iv 

Introduction......................................................................................................................................1 

Overview of Assumptions and Results............................................................................................2 

Macroeconomic Assumptions..........................................................................................................9 

Crops..............................................................................................................................................20 

Livestock........................................................................................................................................51 

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators: 

 Farm Income, Food Prices and Expenditures, and U.S. Trade Value ...............................62 

Agricultural Trade..........................................................................................................................71 

List of Tables ...............................................................................................................................110 

Features in this Report

Page 

Economic Growth in Energy-Intensive Economies Underlies Oil Price Projections............... 16

U.S. Biofuel Overview ............................................................................................................. 22

Biofuel Tax Credits and Import Tariffs .................................................................................... 24

Livestock Sector Use of Distillers Grains, a Coproduct of Ethanol Production ...................... 52 

Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks ................................................................................... 73 
USDA Long-term Projections iii

A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections 

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a Departmental consensus 

on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for 

discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector. 

The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a 

conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of 

current farm legislation and specific assumptions about external conditions. 

The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2006 World 

Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Critical long-term assumptions are made for 

U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade 

policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. Normal 

weather is assumed. Also, the report assumes no further outbreaks of animal or plant diseases. 

Changes in assumptions for any of these items can significantly affect the projections, and actual 

conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes. 

Historically, projections in prior years’ releases of this report have been the same as those used 

in preparing the President’s Budget baseline. However, the President’s Budget baseline this year 

assumes that biofuel blending tax credits and the ethanol import tariff are not extended beyond 

their currently legislated expiration dates. The projections in this report assume those tax credits 

and tariff are extended. 

The projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in USDA and reflects a 

composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service has 

the lead role in preparing the Departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed 

and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World 

Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include 

the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Economic Research Service, the Farm Service 

Agency, the Foreign Agricultural Service, the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Office of the 

Chief Economist, the Office of Budget and Program Analysis, the Risk Management Agency, the 

Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the Cooperative State Research, Education, and 

Extension Service. 
iv USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Long-term Projections on the Internet

The Economic Research Service of USDA has a briefing room for long-term projections at: 

http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/projections/ 

Also, data from the new USDA long-term projections are available electronically at: 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192 

Contacts for Long-term Projections 

Questions regarding these projections may be directed to: 

Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, Room 5188, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, 

D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5335, e-mail: westcott@ers.usda.gov 

Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, Room 5160, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, 

D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5280, e-mail: rtrostle@ers.usda.gov 

C. Edwin Young, Economic Research Service, Room 5191, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, 

D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5336, e-mail: ceyoung@ers.usda.gov 

David Stallings, World Agricultural Outlook Board, MS 3812, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W., 

Washington, D.C. 20250-3812, phone: (202) 720-5715, e-mail: dstallings@oce.usda.gov 

Acknowledgments 

The report coordinators, on behalf of the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, thank 

the many analysts in different agencies of USDA for their contributions to the long-term 

projections analysis and to the preparation and review of this report. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 1

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016 

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

Introduction 

This report provides longrun projections for the agricultural sector through 2016. Projections 

cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as 

farm income and food prices. This report identifies major forces and uncertainties affecting future 

agricultural markets; prospects for global long-term economic growth, consumption, and trade; and 

future price trends, trade flows, and U.S. exports of major farm commodities. 

The projections are a conditional scenario with no shocks and are based on specific assumptions 

regarding the macroeconomy, agricultural and trade policies, the weather, and international 

developments. The report assumes that the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (the 

2002 Farm Act), the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and the Agricultural Reconciliation Act of 2005 

remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are not intended to be a 

Departmental forecast of what the future will be, but instead a description of what would be 

expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation, with very specific external 

circumstances. Thus, the projections provide a neutral backdrop, reference scenario that provides 

a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under 

different domestic or international assumptions. 

Historically, projections in prior years’ releases of this report have been the same as those used in 

preparing the President’s Budget baseline. However, the President’s Budget baseline this year 

assumes that biofuel blending tax credits and the ethanol import tariff are not extended beyond 

their currently legislated expiration dates. The projections in this report assume those tax credits 

and tariff are extended. (See box, page 24, for further discussion and a comparison of selected 

results of these alternative scenarios.) 

 

The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 2006 and reflect a 

composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. Normal weather is assumed. Also, the 

projections assume no further outbreaks of plant or animal diseases. Short-term projections used 

as a starting point in this report are from the November 2006 World Agricultural Supply and 

Demand Estimates report. 
2 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Overview of Assumptions and Results 

Key assumptions underlying the projections include the following: 

Economic growth

• World economic growth is projected to increase at a 3.4-percent average annual rate 

between 2007 and 2016, after averaging 2.9 percent annually in 2001-06. U.S. gross 

domestic product (GDP) slows over the next several years from 3.4 percent in 2006 toward 

a sustainable rate of about 3 percent over the longer term. Strong economic growth in 

developing countries of 5.6 percent annually is projected for 2007-16. 

Population 

• Growth in global population is assumed to continue to slow to an average of about 1.1 

percent per year over the projection period compared with an annual rate of 1.7 percent in 

the 1980s. Although slowing, population growth rates in most developing countries remain 

above those in the rest of the world. As a consequence, the share of world population 

accounted for by developing countries increases to over 83 percent by 2016, up from 82 

percent in 2005. 

The value of the U.S. dollar 

• The U.S. dollar remains relatively strong by historical standards, depreciating slightly in 

2008 and then continuing a long-term pattern of slow appreciation through the rest of the 

projection period. A strengthening U.S. dollar assumes that capital moves into the United 

States because of well-functioning and diverse financial markets and high expected 

long-term productivity growth. 

Oil prices

• Large increases in oil prices over the past several years reflected strong demand for crude 

oil resulting from world economic recovery and rapid manufacturing growth in China and 

India. In 2007 through 2011, crude oil prices are expected to drop modestly and then rise 

by less than the inflation rate as new crude supplies help offset the rise in demand from 

Asia. After 2011, oil prices are projected to rise slightly faster than the general inflation 

rate. 

• Underlying these longer term price increases, world oil demand is expected to rise due to 

strong global economic growth, particularly in highly energy-dependent economies in Asia. 

Factors expected to constrain longer run oil price increases include new oil discoveries, 

new technologies for finding and extracting oil, the ability to switch to nonpetroleum fuels, 

the ability to increase energy efficiency by substituting nonenergy inputs for energy, and 

continued expansion and improvement in renewable energy. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 3

U.S. agricultural policy 

• The 2002 Farm Act, as amended, and the Agricultural Reconciliation Act of 2005 are 

assumed to continue through the projection period. 

• Area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is assumed to decline through 

2009 as high prices encourage the return of some land to production when CRP contracts 

expire. CRP acreage is then assumed to gradually rise to its legislated maximum of 

39.2 million acres by the end of the projections, with higher CRP rental rates. 

U.S. biofuels 

• The Renewable Fuel Program of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandates that renewable 

fuel use in gasoline (with credits for biodiesel) reach 7.5 billion gallons by calendar year 

2012. The legislation also contributed to the elimination of methyl tertiary butyl ether 

(MTBE) as a gasoline additive. The projections in this report assume the tax credits 

available to blenders of biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and the ethanol import tariff 

remain in effect through the projection period. These factors, along with relatively high 

prices for oil, contribute to favorable returns for ethanol production, providing economic 

incentives for a continued strong expansion in the production capacity of that industry over 

the next several years, primarily produced from corn. As a result, over 12 billion gallons of 

ethanol are assumed to be produced annually in the United States by the end of the 

projections. Biodiesel production is assumed to increase to 700 million gallons in 2011/12 

and then level off. 

Cattle and beef trade 

• The projections assume a gradual rebuilding of U.S. beef exports to Japan and South 

Korea. Canada’s exports of live cattle to the United States are assumed to remain limited 

to steers and heifers under 30 months old for immediate slaughter and Canadian feeder 

cattle that enter U.S. feedlots and are slaughtered before reaching 30 months of age. 

International policy 

• Trade projections assume that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral 

agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The report incorporates effects of 

trade agreements and domestic policy reforms in place in November 2006. 

• Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to 

continue to evolve along their current path, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s 

regional and commodity analysts. In particular, economic and trade reforms underway in 

many developing countries are assumed to continue. 

• The European Union (EU) expanded from 25 to 27 countries with the accession of 

Romania and Bulgaria on January 1, 2007. EU projections in this report pertain to the 

EU-25. Romania and Bulgaria are included in the Other Europe region, although 

adjustments were made to account for accession. 
4 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

International biofuels 

• The production of biofuels is experiencing rapid growth in a number of countries. The 

projections assume that the most significant increases in foreign biofuel production over 

the next decade will be in the EU, Brazil, Argentina, and Canada. In particular, the 

projections assume that the EU biofuel target of 5.75 percent of total transportation fuel use 

by 2010 is only partially met by that date, and is still not fully reached by 2016. 

Key results in the projections include the following: 

Steady domestic and international economic growth in the projections supports gains in 

consumption, trade, and prices of agricultural products. Additionally, the projections reflect 

increased demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the EU. 

U.S. aggregate indicators

• Net farm income is projected to be relatively strong during the projection period, averaging 

about $67 billion. Increases in corn-based ethanol production provide a major impetus for 

this strong income projection. Growth in export demand also contributes to increases in 

agricultural commodity prices and gains in farm cash receipts. Higher commodity prices 

lower government payments for price-dependent benefits, although annual CRP payments 

increase. Rising production expenses and lower government payments offset some of the 

gains in cash receipts and other sources of farm income. With lower government 

payments, the agriculture sector relies increasingly on the market for its income. Cash 

receipts represent about 90 percent of gross cash income during most of the projection 

period, up from about 85 percent in 2005. Strong and stable net farm income assists in 

asset accumulation and debt management. The debt-to-asset ratio falls moderately in the 

projections, continuing a generally declining trend since the mid-1980s. 

 

• The value of U.S. agricultural exports rises in the projections as steady global economic 

growth and stronger world trade lead to gains for U.S. agricultural export volumes and higher 

commodity prices. Higher commodity prices due to expansion of global biofuel demand also 

contribute to the gains in export values. Increases in U.S. consumer income and demand for a 

large variety of foods underlie growth in U.S. agricultural imports. 

• On average, consumer food prices are projected to rise more slowly than the general rate of 

inflation over the next decade, although increases in meat prices push food prices up faster 

in some years. Consumer expenditures for food away from home continue to grow in 

importance and account for more than half of overall food spending during most of the 

projection period. 

Commodity price relationships

• During the next 3-4 years, rapid expansion in global production of biofuels changes the 

price relationships among various agricultural commodities. Increased demand for grain 

(especially corn) used to produce ethanol in the United States raises the price of corn 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 5

relative to prices for other grains and soybeans, although prices for those crops also rise, 

buoyed by acreage adjustments and production changes and/or by their feed value as a 

replacement for corn. 

• Expansion of biodiesel production globally results in prices for vegetable oils rising in 

comparison to prices for oilseeds and protein meals as more of the crush value of oilseeds 

derives from the oil. As a consequence, prices of protein feeds (such as soybean meal) rise 

relatively less than prices of feedstuffs used primarily as a source of energy (such as corn). 

• Prices of poultry and pork in the United States rise relative to the price of beef because 

cattle can more effectively use the increasing supply of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry 

mill ethanol production. Corn, needed for broilers and swine, becomes more expensive 

while distillers grains, used for cattle, become more abundant and relatively less expensive. 

U.S. agricultural commodities

• Strong expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the United States affects virtually 

every aspect of the field crops sector, ranging from domestic demand and exports to prices 

and the allocation of acreage among crops. Overall plantings expand and a higher portion 

of the total is planted to corn. Higher feed costs and the increased availability of distillers 

grains also affect the livestock sector. 

• Corn used to produce ethanol in the United States continues strong expansion through 

2009/10, with slower growth in subsequent years. By the end of the projections, ethanol 

production exceeds 12 billion gallons per year, using more than 4.3 billion bushels of corn. 

The projected large increase in ethanol production reflects the Energy Policy Act of 2005, 

the elimination of use of MTBE as a gasoline additive, ongoing ethanol plant construction, 

and economic incentives provided by continued high oil prices. Feed use of corn declines 

in the initial years of the projections and then rises only moderately as increased feeding of 

distillers grains helps meet livestock feed demand, particularly for beef cattle. 

 

• Growth in the food use of wheat is projected to be somewhat slower than the rate of 

population increases, reflecting dietary adjustments by some consumers. Feed use of wheat 

rises sharply in the initial years of the projections as higher corn prices encourage increases 

in wheat feeding, particularly in the summer quarter. As corn prices fall, wheat feeding 

declines after 2010/11 due to relatively higher wheat prices compared with corn. 

 

• Soybean acreage falls in the projections as more favorable returns to corn production draw 

land from soybeans. Longrun growth in domestic soybean crush is mostly driven by 

increasing demand for domestic soybean meal for livestock feed. Some gains in crush also 

reflect increasing domestic soybean oil demand for biodiesel production through 2011/12. 

• Mill use of upland cotton in the United States falls in the projections as U.S imports of 

apparel continue to increase, reducing domestic apparel production and lowering the apparel 

industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States. 
6 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

• Slow expansion of domestic food use of rice is projected. Growth is only slightly faster 

than population growth, well below the rates of growth in the 1980s and 1990s when per 

capita use rose rapidly. 

• The sugar projections assume the elimination of Mexico’s soft drink and distribution taxes, 

resulting in higher levels of use of high fructose corn syrup by Mexico’s beverage industry 

and higher exports of sugar from Mexico to the United States. 

• The tobacco sector continues to adjust to the ending of the U.S. tobacco marketing quota 

and price support program. After declining in 2005 when nearly half of tobacco producers 

exited the industry, tobacco leaf production increases in the projections as many remaining 

growers expand operations. Declining cigarette consumption in the United States is an 

important factor underlying projected decreases in domestic use of tobacco leaf. Exports of 

tobacco leaf are projected to increase moderately. 

• The production value of U.S. horticultural crops is projected to grow by 2.5 percent 

annually over the next decade. Consumption of horticultural products continues to rise in 

the projections. Imports play an important role in domestic supply during the winter and, 

increasingly, during other times of the year, providing U.S. consumers with a larger variety 

of horticultural products. 

• Production of all meats slows or declines in the first half of the projections, reflecting 

higher feed costs and lower producer returns as more corn is used in the production of 

ethanol. After those productions adjustments, strong domestic demand and some 

strengthening in meat exports result in higher prices and higher returns, providing 

economic incentives for expansion in the sector. How the sector adjusts to the increased 

availability of distillers grains will also be important. 

• Per capita meat consumption declines in the first half of the projections as the sector lowers 

overall production, but then rebounds somewhat in subsequent years. Rising incomes 

facilitate gains in consumer spending on meat. Nonetheless, overall meat expenditures 

represent a declining proportion of disposable income. 

• Productivity gains are expected to boost milk output per cow and total milk production, 

although some slowing in these increases occurs early in the projection period due to 

higher feed costs. Milk cow numbers are expected to decline after 2006, particularly in 

2008-10 as feed costs rise. 

Agricultural trade 

• Population and income are two important factors underlying global demand for food and 

agricultural products, world trade, and U.S exports. With population growth in the world 

continuing to slow in the projections compared with previous decades, income growth 

becomes a relatively more important factor underlying strengthening food and agricultural 

demand. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because 

consumption of food and feed are particularly responsive to income growth in those 

countries, with movement away from staple foods and increased diversification of diets. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 7

• Increases in global demand for food and agricultural products provide the foundation for 

gains in agricultural trade and U.S. exports. The United States will remain competitive in 

global agricultural markets, although trade competition will continue to be strong. 

Expanding production in a number of countries, including Brazil, Argentina, Canada, 

Ukraine, and Russia, provides competition to U.S. exports for some agricultural 

commodities. A strengthening U.S. dollar assumed in the projections also is a constraining 

factor for U.S. agricultural competitiveness and export growth in the longer run. 

Nonetheless, increases in exports contribute to gains in cash receipts for U.S. farmers. 

• Steady longrun growth in the livestock sectors of developing countries in Asia, Latin 

America, North Africa, and the Middle East accounts for most of the growth in world 

coarse grain imports projected during the next decade. The United States is the major corn 

exporter in the world. However, with increasing use of corn for U.S. ethanol production, 

particularly over the next several years, U.S. corn exports show very little growth through 

2010/11 and prices rise. In response, increased corn production and exports are assumed 

for Argentina, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Republic of South Africa, and Brazil. China is 

also assumed to increase corn production, which changes its net corn trade by slowing the 

decline in its exports and the increase in its imports. Nonetheless, China is projected to 

become a net importer of corn in the longer run, reflecting declining stocks of grain and 

increasing demand for feed for its growing livestock sector. 

• Vegetable oil prices rise relative to prices for oilseeds and protein meals because of expanding 

biodiesel production in a number of countries. This relatively new source of oilseed products 

demand amplifies already rising uses of vegetable oils for food consumption and protein 

meals for livestock production in developing countries, resulting from strong income and 

population growth. Brazil’s rapidly increasing soybean area enables it to gain a larger share of 

world soybean and soybean meal exports, despite increasing domestic feed use. Argentina is 

the leading exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil, reflecting the country’s large and 

growing crush capacity, its small domestic market for soybean products, and an export tax 

structure that favors exports of soybean products rather than soybeans. The former Soviet 

Union, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia increase rapeseed and palm oil production for use 

as biodiesel feedstocks. 

• The United States, Australia, the EU, Canada, and Argentina have historically been the 

primary exporters of wheat, although exports from the Black Sea region have grown in the 

past 10 years. Over the next decade, Russia and Ukraine are projected to have a growing 

importance in world wheat trade, reflecting low costs of production and continued investments 

in their agricultural sectors. However, high year-to-year volatility in these countries’ 

production and trade can be expected due to weather extremes and related yield variation. 

• Cotton consumption and textile production are projected to increase in countries where 

labor and other costs are low, such as China, India, and Pakistan. China is the largest 

importer of cotton in the world. Although China’s cotton imports are expected to grow 

more slowly than the rapid gains since 2001, these increases account for the gains in global 

cotton trade in the projections. The United States continues as the world’s leading cotton 

exporter, reflecting its large production capacity and its reduced domestic mill use of cotton 

as textile imports continue to grow. 

 
8 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

• Long-grain varieties of rice account for around three-fourths of global rice trade and are 

expected to account for the bulk of trade growth over the next decade. Long-grain rice is 

imported by a broad spectrum of countries in South and Southeast Asia, much of the 

Middle East, nearly all of Sub-Saharan Africa, and most of Latin America. Thailand, 

Vietnam, India, and the United States remain the world’s largest rice-exporting countries. 

• U.S. meat exports benefit from strong foreign economic growth. Although U.S. beef exports 

to Japan and South Korea are projected to gradually rebuild, total U.S. beef exports do not 

return to the levels attained prior to the first U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy 

(BSE) in December 2003. 

• Mexican pork imports rise rapidly, driven by increases in income and population. Higher 

income countries of East Asia increase pork imports as their domestic hog sectors are 

constrained by environmental concerns and high imported feed costs. Brazil continues to 

be a major pork exporter, although the presence of foot-and-mouth disease in Brazil limits 

Brazilian pork exports to some markets. 

• Avian influenza is assumed to not significantly affect overall consumer demand for poultry. 

However, poultry exports from countries affected by the disease, such as Thailand and China, 

are expected to be limited to fully cooked products. Brazil remains a leading poultry exporter 

as low production costs allow the Brazilian poultry sector to remain competitive in global 

trade. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 9

Macroeconomic Assumptions 

Macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA’s long-term projections reflect steady growth at 

near-average historical rates over most of the projection period. Most of the world will be moving 

toward longrun sustainable economic growth, with trend rates in 2008 and beyond. Overall, world 

economic growth is projected to increase at a 3.4-percent average rate between 2007 and 2016, 

after averaging below 3 percent annually between 2001 and 2006. The projections have 

moderating growth in developed countries and accelerating growth in developing and former 

Soviet Union countries. Ongoing computing and telecommunications advances support worldwide 

productivity gains throughout the projections. 

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth slows over the next several years from 3.4 percent in 

2006 toward a sustainable rate of about 3 percent over the longer term. Nonetheless, the United 

States continues to maintain its share of global GDP at around 30 percent. While the United States 

plays a large role in determining economic conditions around the world, strong growth in China 

and in India are becoming increasingly important. 

Improved global economic performance and continuing, although slowing, population growth are 

expected to boost food demand in the projections. Increased global purchasing power and 

population growth, competing against demand for biofuels and other domestic uses, are important 

factors shaping the projections for U.S. agricultural exports. 

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. and world gross domestic product (GDP) growth

Percent

World

United States
10 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GDP growth for developed countries, European Union-25, and Japan

Percent

Developed countries

Japan European Union-25

Developed economies are projected to grow at rates similar to those of the 1990s, averaging 

around 2.5 percent in 2007-16. European and Japanese growth increases from recent levels, but 

remains around 2 percent per year in the projection period. 

• Enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include more countries of Central and Eastern 

Europe creates additional trade and investment opportunities within the expanded EU. The 

EU economy, however, does not grow as rapidly as the U.S. economy because of lingering 

EU structural rigidities, particularly rigid labor laws and a very expensive social security 

system. Political difficulties also constrain the benefits of economic integration, 

particularly with continued restrictions on labor mobility between EU countries and a very 

cumbersome EU decisionmaking process. 

• Japan continues to face constraints to economic growth, largely the result of long-term 

structural rigidities, a difficult political process of economic reform, and a rapidly aging 

population. Japan’s labor market liberalization partly offsets these constraints, aiding 

productivity growth. The projections assume sustained economic growth in Japan at 

2 percent a year, with the country’s share of world GDP declining to around 12 percent by 

2016, down from almost 18 percent in 1991. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 11

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GDP growth for developing economies and the former Soviet Union

Percent

Developing Asia

Former Soviet Union

Latin America

Africa

Economic growth in developing countries is projected to average 5.6 percent annually in 2007-16. 

Developing countries will play an increasingly important role in global growth in food demand and 

will become a more important destination for U.S. farm exports. Relatively high income growth, along 

with large responsiveness of consumption and imports of food and feed to income growth in these 

countries, underlies this result. As incomes rise in developing countries, consumers generally diversify 

their diets, moving away from staple foods to include more meat, fruits, vegetables, and processed 

foods (including vegetable oils). These consumption shifts increase import demand for feedstuffs and 

high-value food products. 

• Long-term growth of 3.9 percent is projected for Latin America. An overall improvement in 

macroeconomic policies should attract foreign capital inflows, particularly foreign direct 

investment, and sustain growth. 

• Projected growth for Southeast Asia exceeds 5 percent for the next decade while growth in 

developing countries of East Asia exceeds 7 percent. Although large, these projected growth 

rates are below the very strong average economic growth in these regions in 1971-2006. 

• China’s economic growth has been consistently the strongest in Asia, exceeding 10 percent 

between 2003 and 2006. While some slowing is expected, China’s growth is expected to average 

above 8 percent over the next decade, despite problems with the structure of the banking system. 

• India’s projected average economic growth of around 7 percent a year puts it in the top tier 

of high-growth countries. Nonetheless, India is still a low-income country, with real 2000-based 

per capita income around $600 in 2006. Continued high income growth is expected to bring 

India’s real per capita income to more than $1,000 by 2016 and is expected to move a significant 

number of people out of poverty. 

• High oil prices assumed in the projections modestly constrain Asia from even higher economic 

growth since its manufacturing sector is far more dependent on energy for GDP growth than 

more developed economies.

• Economic growth in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to average 

almost 5 percent annually for the next decade. Russia, Ukraine, and other FSU countries 

benefit greatly from their shift to more market-oriented economies. Russia and the other 

oil-rich FSU countries also benefit from high oil prices. 
12 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

1

2

3

1980-89

1990-99

2000-06

2007-16

Population growth 1/

Percent

1/ Population projections from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau.

World

Developed

United 

States

Developing

Former

Soviet 

Union

Africa

Middle 

East

Asia

Latin

America

A continued slowing of population growth around the world is an important factor limiting 

increases in food and agricultural demand over the next decade. World population growth declines 

from an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the 1980s to an average of about 1.1 percent per year for the 

projection period. 

• Developed and FSU countries have very low projected rates of population growth, at 0.4 

percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. The projected annual average population growth rate 

for the United States is the highest among developed countries, at 0.9 percent, in part 

reflecting large immigration. Population growth rates in developing economies decline by 

more than 40 percent between the 1980s and the end of the projection period, but remain 

above those in developed countries and the FSU. As a result, the share of world population 

accounted for by developing countries increases to 83 percent by 2016. 

• China and India together account for more than one-third of the world’s population. 

China’s population growth rate slows from 1.5 percent per year in 1981-90 to 0.6 percent in 

2007-16. The population growth rate in India, the world’s second most populous nation, is 

projected to decline from 2.1 percent to 1.3 percent per year between the same periods. 

This growth narrows the gap between India’s and China’s populations. 

• Brazil’s population growth rate falls from 2.1 percent per year in 1981-90 to 0.9 percent 

annually in 2007-16. Sub-Saharan Africa’s population growth rate declines from 2.9 

percent to 2.2 percent per year over the same period, leaving this impoverished region with 

the highest population growth rates in the world, on average. 

• There are a number of countries with declining populations. Most of these are mature 

economies such as Japan and countries in Western Europe, Central Europe, and the FSU. 

However, several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have declining populations resulting 

from the devastating impacts of the AIDS epidemic, including the Republic of South 

Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 13

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar projected to strengthen 1/

Index values, 2000=100

1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights.

The U.S. dollar remains relatively strong in the projections by historical standards, depreciating 

slightly in 2008 and then continuing a long-term pattern of slow real appreciation. The relatively 

high real exchange rate—expressed in this report as local currency per U.S. dollar, in inflationadjusted terms—will be a constraining factor on the growth in U.S. exports. Nonetheless, strong 

long-term economic growth, particularly in developing countries, will result in an overall increase 

in the demand for U.S. farm exports. 

• Strong GDP growth in the United States relative to the EU and Japan strengthens the dollar 

relative to the euro and offsets much of the trade-driven appreciation of the yen. 

• The U.S. dollar stays strong because capital moves into the United States to benefit from 

well-functioning and diverse financial markets, a relatively risk-free environment, 

transparent financial accounting standards, and high expected long-term productivity 

growth and corporate profitability. The dollar also stays high because developing countries 

that pursue export-led economic growth strategies often use fiscal and monetary policies 

that tend to produce depreciating currencies.

• Among agricultural products, U.S. exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products 

tend to be the most sensitive to a strong U.S. dollar, because they face relatively more 

global trade competition. 

• China initiated a process for appreciating its currency in 2005 after a long period of an 

undervalued exchange rate and substantial political pressure from its trading partners. To 

date, the appreciation has been limited to 5-6 percent. This compares with most estimates 

of undervaluation of at least 30 to 40 percent. The projections assume that China allows its 

real exchange rate to slowly appreciate. The appreciation of the yuan also leads to 

appreciation in other Asian currencies. 
14 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

10

20

30

World

Developed

United States

FSU

Developing

Asia

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

1980-89

1990-99

2000-06

2007-16

Inflation rates

Percent

Global inflation rates are projected to remain relatively low through 2016. 

• The U.S. and world economies are moving into a steady growth phase of the business 

cycle. Some inflationary pressures have begun as a result of energy price increases and the 

movement towards full employment and full capacity utilization. In response, the U.S. 

Federal Reserve Board and central banks in other countries have increased short-term 

interest rates aggressively to constrain inflation, and are assumed to continue such policies 

in the projection period. 

 

• While inflation in the United States and the world exceeded 3 percent in 2005 and 2006, a 

modest reduction in inflation is assumed in the projections. U.S. inflation as measured by 

the Consumer Price Index is projected at about 2.5 percent, while global inflation is around 

3 percent. 

• Inflation rates in developing countries are projected to fall from 7 percent to under 

5 percent. Inflation in Asia declines to rates comparable to those in developed countries. 

Rates in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, while declining, will remain 

substantially above inflation rates in the rest of the world. 

• In the FSU, inflation rates come down from the high transition rates of the 1990s to an 

average projected to be below 5 percent. 

• Relatively low inflation rates will keep nominal interest rates from moving to the high 

levels seen in the 1980s. However, as world economies grow more rapidly, demand for 

credit will rise and further boost interest rates over the longer term. In addition, long-term 

U.S. interest rates rise in the short run to continue financing the current account deficit. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Crude oil prices

Dollars per barrel

Refiners' acquisition cost,

crude oil imports

Refiners' acquisition cost, 

adjusted for inflation

Crude oil prices rose sharply from late 2002 through 2006, largely reflecting increased crude oil 

demand due to a robust world economic recovery and rapid manufacturing growth in China and 

India. In 2007 through 2011, crude oil prices are expected to drop modestly and then rise less than 

the inflation rate as new crude supplies help offset the rise in demand from Asia. After 2011, oil 

prices are projected to rise slightly faster than the general inflation rate, reflecting rising world oil 

demand, due to strong global economic growth, particularly in highly energy-dependent economies 

in Asia (see box, page 16). 

Partly offsetting those effects, factors expected to constrain longrun increases in oil prices include: 

• The ability to switch to nonpetroleum fuels, such as coal and natural gas, especially in 

industrial uses and electric power generation; 

• Increasing energy efficiency due to the substitution of nonenergy inputs (such as 

microchip-driven equipment) for energy as well as improved energy-use technology; 

• Continued expansion and improvement in renewable energy, such as wind and water 

power, thermal energy, solar power, and biofuels; 

• Continued extraction of fossil fuels from unconventional sources such as oil shale and tar 

sands; and 

• New oil discoveries, along with new technologies for finding and extracting oil. 

Oil prices have historically affected prices of natural gas and nitrogen-based fertilizer. However, 

the links between the oil and natural gas markets have weakened significantly due to dramatic 

growth in the demand for natural gas and deregulation throughout the natural gas supply and 

demand system. At the same time, fertilizer imports have become more important in domestic 

supply. Prices for natural gas and nitrogen-based fertilizer have become somewhat more volatile 

than prices for oil, largely because natural gas is less transportable and, as a result, its supply is 

more inelastic. Nevertheless, over a longer period of time, oil and natural gas prices are expected 

to move more closely together as the United States and other natural gas importers develop the 

capacity to import more liquefied natural gas. 
16 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Economic Growth in Energy-Intensive Economies Underlies Oil Price Projections 

Strong economic growth in highly energy-dependent economies in Asia, including China, India, 

and other rapidly growing Asian economies, is a major factor pushing oil prices higher in the 

projections. Reductions in energy intensity in these economies are expected, however. 

Most of China’s energy is from coal, but as consumer incomes and automobile demand grow, an 

increasing share of its energy use will be petroleum. China has become increasingly efficient in 

energy use over the past 25 years, reducing its energy intensity by over 50 percent since the 1980s 

(based on a measure of energy used to produce a dollar’s worth of GDP, from the Department of 

Energy’s Energy Information Administration). Nonetheless, even with this improvement, China’s 

energy intensity is over four times as high as that of the United States. China’s energy intensity is 

expected to decline further with the adoption of more energy-efficient manufacturing technology 

and rapid growth of the less-energy-intensive service sector. 

The energy intensity of India’s economy rose in the 1980s, but has fallen more than 15 percent 

since the early 1990s. Although less energy-intensive than China’s economy, India uses more than 

two and a half times as much energy as the United States to produce a dollar’s worth of GDP. As 

India continues to develop its infrastructure, especially the highway system and electric power 

grid, energy intensity is expected to rise. 

The rapidly growing and newly industrialized East and Southeast Asian economies of Taiwan, 

South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand have become more energy-intensive 

since the 1980s. Energy used to produce a dollar of GDP has risen by about 15 percent compared 

with the 1980s, and is now about 50 percent more than in the United States. Taiwan and South 

Korea have been leaders in developing Asia in reducing their energy intensity. Reductions in their 

energy intensity are expected as more efficient manufacturing technology is adopted and their 

service sectors continue to grow rapidly. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 17

Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions

Item 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP, billion dollars

 Nominal 12,456 13,279 13,992 14,729 15,519 16,352 17,213 18,120 19,074 20,078 21,115 22,206

 Real 2006 chained dollars 11,049 11,424 11,756 12,096 12,471 12,858 13,244 13,641 14,050 14,472 14,892 15,323

 percent change 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9

Disposable personal income

 Nominal (billions) 9,036 9,560 10,110 10,681 11,269 11,888 12,542 13,232 13,960 14,728 15,538 16,392

 percent change 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

 Nominal per capita, dollars 30,457 31,934 33,468 35,047 36,652 38,334 40,097 41,942 43,874 45,896 48,016 50,237

 percent change 3.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6

 Real (billion 2000 chained) 8,105 8,308 8,573 8,848 9,122 9,405 9,696 9,997 10,307 10,626 10,956 11,295

 percent change 1.2 2.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

 Real per capita, 2000 dollars 27,319 27,750 28,382 29,031 29,670 30,326 30,999 31,688 32,393 33,116 33,857 34,617

 percent change 0.2 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

Consumer spending

 Real (billion 2000 chained) 7,841 8,069 8,319 8,560 8,808 9,064 9,326 9,597 9,875 10,162 10,446 10,739

 percent change 3.5 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8

Inflation measures

 GDP price index, chained 112.7 116.2 119.0 121.8 124.4 127.2 130.0 132.8 135.8 138.7 141.8 144.9

 percent change 3.0 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

 CPI-U, 1982-84=100 195.3 202.1 207.6 213.0 218.3 223.7 229.3 235.1 240.9 247.0 253.1 259.5

 percent change 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

 PPI, finished goods 1982=100 155.7 161.0 164.7 167.4 169.7 172.1 174.5 176.9 179.4 181.9 184.5 187.0

 percent change 4.9 3.4 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

 PPI, crude goods 1982=100 182.2 183.3 184.0 184.6 186.4 188.3 190.2 192.1 194.0 196.0 197.9 199.9

 percent change 14.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Crude oil price, $/barrel

 Refiner acq. cost, imports 48.9 59.0 57.7 57.5 58.0 59.0 60.0 62.4 64.9 67.6 70.3 73.1

 percent change 36.0 20.5 -2.2 -0.3 0.9 1.7 1.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

 Real 2000 chained dollars 43.4 50.7 48.5 47.2 46.6 46.4 46.2 47.0 47.8 48.7 49.6 50.5

 percent change 32.0 16.9 -4.5 -2.5 -1.3 -0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Labor compensation per hour

 nonfarm business, 92=100 162.7 170.5 177.7 183.7 190.0 196.4 203.1 210.0 217.1 224.5 232.2 240.1

 percent change 4.4 4.8 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Interest rates, percent

 3-month T-bills 3.2 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

 3-month commercial paper 3.4 5.1 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

 Bank prime rate 6.2 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3

 Treasury bonds (10-year) 4.3 4.9 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

 Moody's Aaa bonds 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5

Civilian unemployment

 rate, percent 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

Nonfarm payroll emp., millions 133.5 135.3 137.1 138.6 140.1 141.5 142.9 144.4 145.8 147.3 148.7 150.2

 percent change 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Total population, million 296.7 299.4 302.1 304.8 307.4 310.1 312.8 315.5 318.2 320.9 323.6 326.3

 percent change 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Domestic macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2006.
18 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1991-2000 2001-2006 2007-2016

Percent Percent change

World 100.0 5,786 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.4

less United States 69.3 4,209 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.6

North America 32.9 37,388 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.6 3.0

Canada 2.3 25,731 4.6 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9

United States 30.7 38,681 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.6 3.0

Latin America 6.3 4,293 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.5 2.8 3.9

Caribbean & Central America 0.6 3,090 2.9 3.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.8

Mexico 1.8 6,215 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 2.4 3.5

South America 3.9 4,007 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.9 4.0

Argentina 0.8 8,403 9.2 7.0 5.9 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.7 3.1 4.7

Brazil 1.9 3,690 2.3 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 2.8 2.4 3.7

Other 1.2 3,222 6.7 5.7 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.2 3.7 4.1

Europe 27.3 18,699 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.2

European Union-25 25.7 20,201 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.2

Other Europe 1.6 8,601 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.4 2.3 2.3

Former Soviet Union 1.3 1,860 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.3 4.9 4.7 -4.1 6.7 4.7

Russia 0.9 2,594 6.4 6.0 5.2 4.5 4.1 4.0 -3.6 6.1 4.2

Ukraine 0.1 997 2.6 3.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.5 -7.7 6.9 4.9

Other 0.2 1,148 11.0 10.0 9.1 7.8 7.3 6.9 -3.6 9.1 6.5

Asia and Oceania 27.7 2,952 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.3 3.9 4.5

East Asia 22.2 5,538 4.6 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.0 3.6 4.3

China 4.6 1,579 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.8 8.7 8.0 10.5 9.6 8.4

Hong Kong 0.5 31,071 7.3 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.6 5.2

Japan 14.3 40,906 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.0

Korea 1.7 13,767 4.0 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 6.0 4.7 5.0

Taiwan 1.0 16,369 5.3 5.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 6.4 3.5 4.1

Southeast Asia 2.0 1,363 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.8 5.2

Indonesia 0.6 891 5.6 5.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 4.4 4.8 5.8

Malaysia 0.3 4,858 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 7.2 4.6 5.4

Philippines 0.3 1,091 5.0 5.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.1 4.3 4.3

Thailand 0.4 2,547 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.1 4.6 5.0 5.2

Vietnam 0.1 572 8.4 8.0 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.0

South Asia 2.1 584 8.1 7.6 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.2 6.5 6.5

Bangladesh 0.2 426 5.4 6.5 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.3 4.8 5.5 5.3

India 1.6 621 8.4 8.0 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 5.5 6.9 7.0

Pakistan 0.2 600 8.4 6.6 6.1 5.5 4.9 4.1 4.0 5.2 4.3

Oceania 1.5 15,943 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.3

Australia 1.3 23,163 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.4

New Zealand 0.2 15,639 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.8

Other Asia and Oceania 0.1 1,070 6.2 6.1 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.4 6.1 4.1 4.4

Middle East 2.6 3,912 6.4 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.3 4.4

Iran 0.4 2,029 5.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.0 5.5 4.3

Iraq 0.1 944 17.0 12.8 11.7 9.2 7.5 6.1 9.5 3.4 6.3

Saudi Arabia 0.6 8,972 6.6 5.8 5.6 4.9 4.3 4.2 2.6 4.3 4.3

Turkey 0.6 3,659 7.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.3 3.6 4.5 4.9

Other 1.0 5,092 5.5 5.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.9 4.2 4.0

Africa 1.9 842 4.9 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 3.0 4.5 5.0

North Africa 0.8 1,965 4.2 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 3.9 4.5 4.8

Algeria 0.2 2,179 5.1 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.0 1.7 5.0 5.4

Egypt 0.3 1,639 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.5

Morocco 0.1 1,296 3.5 6.7 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 8.4 5.3 5.0

Tunisia 0.1 2,515 1.5 5.5 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 2.4 4.4 4.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.1 593 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.2 2.4 4.5 5.1

Republic of South Africa 0.4 3,747 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.2 1.8 3.7 5.1

Other Sub-Saharan Africa 0.7 406 5.8 6.5 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.2 2.8 5.0 5.1

Average Share of 

world GDP

Region/country 2001-2005

International macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2006.

Per capita 

income, 

2006
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 19

Table 3. Population growth assumptions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1991-2000 2001-2006 2007-2016

Millions Percent change

World1 6,528 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1

less United States 6,230 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1

North America 332 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9

Canada 33 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8

United States 298 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9

Latin America 562 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.1

Caribbean & Central America 79 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4

Mexico 107 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1

South America 376 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.0

Argentina 40 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.8

Brazil 188 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.9

Other 148 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.2

Europe 526 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

European Union-25 458 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1

Other Europe 68 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

Former Soviet Union 278 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1

Russia 142 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4

Ukraine 47 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6

Other 90 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1

Asia and Oceania 3,655 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0

East Asia 1,547 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6

China 1,314 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6

Hong Kong 7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.4

Japan 127 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2

Korea 49 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.3

Taiwan 23 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5

Southeast Asia 567 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.2

Indonesia 232 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.2

Malaysia 24 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.7

Philippines 89 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.6

Thailand 65 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.6

Vietnam 84 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.0

South Asia 1,507 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.4

Bangladesh 147 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.9

India 1,112 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.3

Pakistan 166 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.1 1.9

Oceania 35 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1

Australia 20 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8

New Zealand 4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.8

Other Asia and Oceania 191 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.5

Middle East 260 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.7

Iran 65 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.1

Iraq 27 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.4

Saudi Arabia 27 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.7 2.6 1.7

Turkey 70 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.9

Other 70 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.5

Africa 915 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.1

North Africa 161 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.4

Algeria 33 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.2

Egypt 79 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.6

Morocco 33 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.4

Tunisia 10 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 754 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.2

Republic of South Africa 44 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 1.4 0.0 -0.5

Other Sub-Saharan Africa 710 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4

Ethiopia 75 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.1

Nigeria 132 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4

Average Population 

Region/country in 2006

1/ Totals for the world and world less United States include countries not otherwise listed in the table.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. The population 

assumptions were completed in August 2006.
20 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

225

250

275

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, 

upland cotton, and soybeans.

Crops 

Strong expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the projections affects virtually every aspect 

of the field crops sector, ranging from domestic demand and exports to prices and the allocation of 

acreage among crops (see box, page 22). Additionally, steady U.S. and global economic growth 

assumed in the projections provide a favorable setting for other uses of field crops, which, 

following the initially large ethanol expansion, supports longer run increases in consumption and 

trade and keeps prices at historically high levels. 

Although tempered somewhat by higher feed prices, global livestock production rises in the 

projections in response to growing incomes and demand for meats, which supports gains in world 

consumption and trade for feed grains. Following a moderate depreciation of the U.S. dollar in the 

first several years of the projections, the dollar (U.S. agricultural export-weighted basis) is then 

projected to appreciate. The stronger dollar, combined with trade competition from Brazil, 

Argentina, and the Black Sea region, constrains U.S. exports for some crops. Additionally, strong 

domestic use of corn due to increased ethanol production and the shift of land to corn from 

soybeans limit U.S. exports in the early years of the projections. 

Assumptions for field crops reflect provisions of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 

2002 (2002 Farm Act), which is assumed to continue through the projection period. However, 

with high prices projected, benefits for price-sensitive programs are reduced. For example, 

marketing loan benefits and counter-cyclical payments for feed grains are minimal, even 

accounting for stochastic factors. High prices also lead to a reduction in area enrolled in the 

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) through 2009, but the CRP is then assumed to rise to 39.2 

million acres by the end of the projection period, with higher CRP rental rates. About two-thirds 

of the land in the reserve is allocated to the eight major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, 

wheat, rice, upland cotton, and soybeans), based on historical plantings. 

Projected plantings for the eight major field crops in the United States increase from about 243 

million acres in 2006 to more than 247 million during most of the projection period, as higher 

prices and producer net returns bring land into production. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 21

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Planted area: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Million acres

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Plantings of different crops are influenced by expected net returns. Net returns are determined by 

market prices, yields, and production costs, with returns augmented by marketing loan benefits 

when prices are low. 

• Corn, wheat, and soybeans account for about 88 percent of acreage for the eight major field 

crops over the projection period. The cropping mix shifts more to corn and away from 

soybeans as growth in global supply and demand is reflected in prices and net returns. In 

particular, growth in domestic ethanol production from corn increases demand, raising corn 

prices and returns. 

• Corn acreage rises sharply in the projections, reaching 90 million acres by 2010 as rapid 

expansion in ethanol production increases corn demand, prices, and producer returns. As 

growth in ethanol use stabilizes, annual increases in corn production from yield gains outpace 

increases in corn use for ethanol, allowing corn stocks to grow modestly and corn prices to 

ease somewhat. This supports renewed expansion in domestic corn feeding and exports. 

Stable, but moderate growth in corn ethanol demand combine with growth in feeding and 

exports to support producer returns and stabilize acreage at this higher level. Corn plantings 

are also facilitated by adjustments in soybean area. 

• Wheat plantings rebound to 60 million acres in 2007 in response to high prices, but then 

fall back to 58-59 million acres due to competition from other crops. 

 

• Soybean plantings decline to less than 69 million acres as more favorable returns to corn 

production draw land from soybeans. 
22 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

U.S. Biofuel Overview 

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandates that renewable fuel use in gasoline (with credits for 

biodiesel) reach 7.5 billion gallons by calendar year 2012. However, high oil prices combined 

with blender tax credits and import tariffs (see box, page 24, on tax credits and tariffs), elimination 

of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) as an additive in gasoline blending, State programs, and 

other factors have provided economic incentives for a biofuel expansion that exceeds the Act’s 

mandate. 

Biofuel Large in Agriculture but Relatively Small in Energy Sector 

Most of the ongoing and projected biofuel expansion in the United States is for ethanol. Ethanol 

production is assumed to expand sharply through 2009/10, reflecting ongoing plant construction in 

response to strong profit incentives. Although more moderate growth is assumed in subsequent 

years, over 12 billion gallons of ethanol are produced annually by the end of the projection period. 

Most of this expansion is dry mill production which primarily uses corn as the feedstock. 

Consequently, more than 30 percent of the corn crop is used to produce ethanol by 2009/10. 

Nonetheless, even by the end of the projection period, ethanol production (by volume) represents 

less than 8 percent of annual gasoline use in the United States. 

Biodiesel production capacity and output have increased rapidly in the past 2 years and are 

projected to rise rapidly again in 2007/08. Slower growth is then projected for several years, with 

biodiesel output leveling off beyond 2010/11 as higher soybean oil prices reduce profitability. At 

its projected high of 700 million gallons, biodiesel uses about 23 percent of soybean oil 

production, but accounts for less than 2 percent of highway diesel fuel use in the United States. 

Cellulosic-based production of renewable fuels is assumed to meet the minimum specified in the 

Energy Policy Act of 2005 of 250 million gallons in 2013 and subsequent years. 

Biofuel Conversion Factors 

New dry mill ethanol plants are assumed in the projections to have a production yield of 2.80 

gallons of ethanol from a bushel of corn, raising the industry average to 2.76 gallons per bushel at 

the end of the projection period. It takes slightly more than a pound of refined soybean oil to 

produce a pound of biodiesel, close to a one-to-one physical conversion factor. This implies that 

about 7.35 pounds of soybean oil are used to produce 1 gallon of biodiesel. 

Acreage Expands and Shifts to Corn 

Strong demand for ethanol production results in higher corn prices and provides incentives to 

increase corn acreage. Much of this increase occurs by adjusting crop rotations between corn and 

soybeans, causing a decline in soybean plantings. Other sources of land for increased corn 

plantings include cropland used as pasture, reduced fallow, acreage returning to production from 

expiring CRP contracts, and shifts from other crops such as cotton. 

--Continued 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 23

U.S. Biofuel Overview (Continued)

Demand Effects 

As the ethanol industry absorbs a larger share of the corn crop, higher prices will affect both domestic 

uses and exports, providing for more intense competition between and among the domestic industries and 

foreign buyers in the demand for feed grains. U.S. feed use of corn typically accounts for 50-60 percent 

of total corn use and the United States typically accounts for 60-70 percent of world corn exports. Market 

adjustments to higher prices result in a reduced share of corn used directly for domestic livestock feeding 

and a lower U.S. share of global corn trade. Corn used for animal feeding declines and represents 40-50 

percent of total use in the projections, while the U.S. share of global corn trade falls to 55-60 percent. 

Use of Coproducts of Ethanol Production 

Although higher prices will lower direct corn feed use, distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol 

production, can be used in livestock rations, particularly in diets of ruminants such as beef and dairy 

cattle. Distillers grains are less suitable in rations for monogastric animals, such as hogs and poultry. 

Thus, the growth of ethanol production and increased supply of distillers grains result in different 

adjustments across U.S. livestock industries. For each 56-pound bushel of corn used in the production of 

ethanol, about 17.5 pounds of dried distillers grains are produced. 

Distillers grains produced in a dry mill ethanol plant are relatively wet, with as much as 65-70 percent 

moisture content. This coproduct can be used in livestock feed in this wet form or can be dried and used 

in a form with lower moisture content. Using wet distillers grains avoids costs of drying the product, but 

involves increased per-unit handling costs. Wet distillers grains also must be used relatively quickly, thus 

limiting how far they can be transported. Dried distillers grains incur costs of drying, but facilitate the 

shipment of this coproduct over greater distances, including for exports. 

Whether used in a wet or dried form, distillers grains used in livestock feed replace some direct corn use, 

as well as soybean meal in some animal rations. Based on assumptions regarding the use of distillers 

grains in the livestock sector, each bushel of corn used to produce ethanol results in a reduction of about a 

fifth of a bushel of corn feed use. (See box, page 52, for further discussion of livestock sector uses of 

distillers grains.) 

Crop Prices and Farm Program Costs 

Increased demand for corn to produce ethanol leads to higher prices for corn and other crops, which, in 

turn, results in smaller government outlays under current farm commodity programs. For example, with 

the prices projected in this report, program costs for price-sensitive marketing loan benefits and countercyclical payments for feed grains are minimal, even with stochastic considerations included. 

In contrast, higher market prices result in increases in CRP rental rates and overall costs for the CRP. 

Government costs for crop insurance also increase because of higher market prices for several of the 

major insured commodities. Additionally, government tax revenues are reduced due to higher total 

blender tax credits for biofuels. 

Short Crop Sensitivity 

Ethanol demand is very inelastic (unresponsive to price changes) in the range of prices projected in this 

report. Although the projections assume no shocks to commodity markets from production shortfalls due 

to weather, pests, or other factors, an important issue is how agricultural markets might respond should a 

production shortfall occur. With inelastic demands representing a greater share of the market and smaller 

levels of stocks projected, increased price variability and market volatility are likely. 
24 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Biofuel Tax Credits and Import Tariffs 

Under current law, tax credits are available to blenders of biofuels equal to 51 cents per gallon for 

ethanol and $1 per gallon for biodiesel (50 cents for biodiesel made from recycled vegetable oil 

and animal fats). Additionally, an import tariff of 54 cents per gallon is assessed on imported 

ethanol, with duty-free status on up to 7 percent of the U.S. ethanol market for imports from 

designated Central American and Caribbean countries. The ethanol tax credit is scheduled to 

expire at the end of calendar year 2010 and the ethanol import tariff was recently extended through 

the end of calendar year 2008. The biodiesel tax credit is scheduled to expire at the end of 

calendar year 2008. 

 

The long-term projections in this report assume the biofuel tax credits and the ethanol tariff 

continue beyond their currently legislated expiration dates. However, an analysis was also 

conducted under the alternative assumption that those provisions expire as scheduled. The table on 

page 25 shows some of the key differences, focusing on domestic markets for corn, soybeans, and 

soybean products. 

Without the biofuel tax credits and ethanol tariff, demands for corn and soybean oil to produce 

ethanol and biodiesel are reduced. Prices for corn, soybeans, and soybean products are lower, so 

other domestic demands and exports are increased. Since ethanol changes in the corn market are 

relatively larger than biodiesel impacts in the soybean and soybean products markets, acreage is 

reduced for corn, with some of that land shifting to soybeans. With lower prices, stochastic budget 

costs for farm programs and direct government payments would be higher. 

 --Continued 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 25

Biofuel Tax Credits and Import Tariffs (Continued) 

Corn and soybean projections under alternative biofuel policy assumptions

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Ethanol and biodiesel tax credit and ethanol import tariff assumed to be extended

 Corn plantings 86.0 89.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0

 Fuel alcohol use 3,200 3,700 3,900 4,000 4,075 4,150 4,200 4,250 4,300 4,350

 Feed & residual 5,825 5,775 5,725 5,750 5,775 5,800 5,850 5,900 5,950 5,975

 Exports 1,925 1,850 1,850 1,925 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250

 Ending stocks 660 620 580 640 670 700 725 750 765 805

 Farm price, corn 3.50 3.60 3.75 3.55 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.35 3.35 3.30

 Soybean plantings 71.0 69.5 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 68.8 68.8 68.8

 Exports 1,150 980 845 845 850 850 855 865 875 875

 Ending stocks 355 237 235 237 234 232 235 233 229 230

 Farm price, soybeans 7.00 7.25 7.30 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.80 6.75 6.75 6.75

 Biodiesel use, soybean oil 4,410 4,594 4,778 4,961 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145

 Food use, soybean oil 16,090 16,231 16,348 16,464 16,580 16,880 17,180 17,480 17,780 18,080

 Exports, soybean oil 975 875 700 700 775 775 775 775 750 725

 Ending stocks, soybean oil 2,088 1,888 1,878 1,883 1,883 1,903 1,883 1,818 1,738 1,703

 Soybean oil price 0.300 0.315 0.320 0.315 0.310 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305

 Soybean meal price 200.00 205.00 205.00 195.00 192.50 190.00 188.50 186.50 185.00 185.00

Ethanol and biodiesel tax credit and ethanol import tariff assumed to end

 Corn plantings 86.0 89.0 88.3 88.9 88.5 87.7 87.7 87.6 87.6 87.6

 Fuel alcohol use 3,200 3,600 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,525 3,550 3,575 3,600 3,625

 Feed & residual 5,825 5,806 5,781 5,852 5,922 5,956 6,010 6,065 6,119 6,149

 Exports 1,925 1,876 1,887 1,979 2,086 2,139 2,193 2,246 2,299 2,352

 Ending stocks 660 663 620 749 883 919 962 1,002 1,045 1,124

 Farm price, corn 3.50 3.50 3.60 3.35 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.05 3.05 3.00

 Soybean plantings 71.0 69.5 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0

 Exports 1,150 980 870 885 890 895 900 915 925 925

 Ending stocks 355 236 247 247 247 243 243 238 232 235

 Farm price, soybeans 6.95 7.10 7.20 6.85 6.60 6.45 6.40 6.35 6.35 6.30

 Biodiesel use, soybean oil 3,675 2,205 1,103 735 551 368 368 368 368 368

 Food use, soybean oil 16,675 17,245 17,598 17,965 18,299 18,683 19,033 19,433 19,833 20,132

 Exports, soybean oil 1,200 2,200 3,000 3,400 3,600 3,725 3,675 3,575 3,475 3,475

 Ending stocks, soybean oil 2,013 1,863 1,978 2,008 2,058 2,103 2,108 2,068 1,988 1,928

 Soybean oil price 0.2975 0.3075 0.310 0.3025 0.290 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285

 Soybean meal price 200.00 203.00 203.50 193.50 190.00 186.00 182.50 180.00 177.00 175.00

Difference

 Corn plantings 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4

 Fuel alcohol use 0 -100 -200 -400 -575 -625 -650 -675 -700 -725

 Feed & residual 0 31 56 102 147 156 160 165 169 174

 Exports 0 26 37 54 86 89 93 96 99 102

 Ending stocks 0 43 40 109 213 219 237 252 280 319

 Farm price, corn 0.00 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30

 Soybean plantings 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2

 Exports 0 0 25 40 40 45 45 50 50 50

 Ending stocks 0 -1 12 10 13 11 8 5 3 5

 Farm price, soybeans -0.05 -0.15 -0.10 -0.15 -0.30 -0.35 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.45

 Biodiesel use, soybean oil -735 -2,389 -3,675 -4,226 -4,594 -4,778 -4,778 -4,778 -4,778 -4,777

 Food use, soybean oil 585 1,014 1,250 1,501 1,719 1,803 1,853 1,953 2,053 2,052

 Exports, soybean oil 225 1,325 2,300 2,700 2,825 2,950 2,900 2,800 2,725 2,750

 Ending stocks, soybean oil -75 -25 100 125 175 200 225 250 250 225

 Soybean oil price -0.0025 -0.0075 -0.010 -0.0125 -0.020 -0.020 -0.020 -0.020 -0.020 -0.020

 Soybean meal price 0.00 -2.00 -1.50 -1.50 -2.50 -4.00 -6.00 -6.50 -8.00 -10.00

Units for plantings are million acres; corn and soybean uses, million bushels; farm prices, dollars per bushel; soybean oil uses, million pounds; soybean oil 

price, dollars per pound; and soybean meal price, dollars per ton.
26 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Corn: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Total domestic use

Exports

Ethanol

Domestic corn use grows throughout the projection period, primarily reflecting increases in corn 

used in the production of ethanol. Global economic growth underlies increases in U.S. corn 

exports after 2009/10. 

• Large increases are projected in corn used for ethanol production over the next several years. 

Relatively high prices for oil contribute to favorable returns for ethanol production, which 

combine with government programs to provide economic incentives for the large ongoing 

expansion in ethanol production capacity. 

• Feed and residual use of corn declines in the initial years and then rises only moderately as 

increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol production, helps meet 

livestock feed demand. 

• Gains in food and industrial uses of corn (other than for ethanol production) are projected 

to be smaller than increases in population. Consumer dietary concerns and other changes 

in tastes and preferences limit increases in the combined use of corn for high fructose corn 

syrup, glucose, and dextrose to about half the rate of population gain. 

• U.S. corn exports fall over the next several years as more corn is used domestically in the 

production of ethanol. After growth in ethanol production in the United States slows, U.S. 

corn exports rise in response to stronger global demand for feed grains to support growth in 

meat production. 

• Additionally, U.S. corn exports to Mexico are boosted because of the elimination of tariffs 

on corn imports from the United States. This shifts some U.S. exports to corn from 

sorghum, which already has tariff-free status. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 27

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Overall demand in the U.S. wheat sector grows very slowly through the projection period. 

 

• Domestic demand for wheat reflects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is 

projected to show moderate gains. Growth is somewhat slower than population increases, 

reflecting adjustments by some consumers to reduce carbohydrates in diets. 

• Feed use of wheat, a low-value use of the crop, rises sharply in the initial years of the 

projections as higher corn prices encourage increases in wheat feeding, particularly in the 

summer quarter. As corn prices fall, wheat feeding declines after 2010/11 due to relatively 

higher wheat prices compared with corn. 

 

• U.S. wheat exports are steady over the next several years, but increase after 2009/10 as 

income and population in developing countries grow, raising global wheat consumption 

and trade. Competition continues from the European Union (EU), Canada, Argentina, 

Australia, and the Black Sea region. The U.S. market share initially declines but then holds 

relatively constant near 22 percent once U.S. exports resume their growth. Market shares 

for Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea region increase, while shares for Canada and 

the EU decline. 
28 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Domestic use of soybeans continues to rise slowly, but U.S. soybean exports initially fall and then 

grow very slowly. 

 

• Longrun growth in domestic soybean crush is mostly driven by increasing demand for 

domestic soybean meal for livestock feed. Some gains in crush also reflect increasing 

domestic soybean oil demand for biodiesel production through 2011/12. 

 

• U.S. soybean exports fall below 900 million bushels as U.S. acreage is shifted to corn to 

support ethanol production and competition from Brazil strengthens. Consequently, the 

U.S. market share of global soybean trade declines to less than 25 percent. 

• U.S. exports of soybean oil and soybean meal face strengthening competition from South 

American producers. U.S. exports of soybean oil are also limited by increases in domestic 

consumption, while soybean meal exports benefit from rising domestic supplies. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 29

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use

Exports

U.S. mill use of upland cotton declines in the projections while upland cotton exports rise after 

2008/09. 

 

• At the end of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected at less than 40 percent of 

its 1997/98 level. Textile and apparel import quotas that had been established under the 

Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) were eliminated at the start of calendar year 2005. As a 

result of this and other factors, apparel imports by the United States increase through the 

projections, reducing domestic apparel production and lowering the apparel industry’s 

demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States. Some increase in U.S. yarn and 

fabric exports is projected due to trade liberalization, but the net effect is for declining 

domestic mill use. 

• U.S. upland cotton exports decline in 2008/09 as supplies are reduced due to acreage shifts 

to corn. Exports then grow moderately, accounting for 80 percent of U.S. cotton 

production throughout much of the projection period. 

 

• Growth in the textile industry in China slows from the rapid expansion of recent years, 

reducing growth in China’s cotton imports. As a result, world cotton consumption and 

trade slow as well. With global trade growth slowing, gains in U.S. cotton exports after 

2008/09 keep the U.S. cotton trade share at 37-38 percent, down from over 40 percent in 

2003/04 and 2004/05. 

 
30 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Rice: Domestic use and exports

Million hundredweight

Domestic use

Exports

Slow expansion in domestic food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice exports 

show moderate increases. 

 

• Growth in domestic use of rice is projected at only slightly faster than population growth, 

well below the rates of growth in the 1980s and 1990s when per capita use rose rapidly. 

Imports of aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use 

in the projections. 

• U.S. rice exports are projected to increase at a moderate pace over the next decade as the 

U.S. price difference over Asian competitors falls, increasing U.S. competitiveness in 

global rice markets. Rough rice exports to Latin America are expected to continue 

increasing and account for most of the U.S. export expansion. 

• Global rice prices are projected to increase about 2 percent per year, exceeding $8.60 per 

hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection period and remaining above the 

loan rate of $6.50 throughout. Despite slower production growth in Asia and growing 

worldwide import demand for rice, increases in global prices are limited by moderate 

consumption growth, reflecting dietary shifts away from staple foods in Asia as incomes 

rise. U.S. rice prices drop slightly early in the projection period, and then slowly increase 

to nearly $10 per hundredweight by 2016. The U.S. price difference over Asian 

competitors declines for most of the projection period. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 31

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Stocks-to-use ratios: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Percent

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Strong ethanol demand sharply lowers U.S. corn stocks in the projections. Shifts in acreage to 

corn from soybeans push soybean stocks down from their record levels of recent years. After the 

ethanol expansion slows later in the projections, stocks rebuild somewhat for corn and stabilize at 

lower levels for soybeans. Wheat stocks rebound from 2006/07 levels as higher prices encourage 

additional acreage and production. As wheat exports strengthen in subsequent years, stocks 

decline. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Stocks-to-use ratios: Cotton and rice

Percent

Cotton

Rice

Cotton stocks decline in the first several years of the projections as some acreage shifts to corn. 

Beyond 2009/10, cotton acreage increases and stocks rebuild through the end of the projections. 

Similarly, stocks of rice fall as acreage initially declines, but rice stocks gradually increase after 

2010/11 as rice acreage rises. 
32 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Corn, wheat, and soybean prices

Dollars per bushel

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Projected farm-level prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans reflect, in part, movements in U.S. 

stocks-to-use ratios. 

• Corn prices rise sharply through 2009/10 as increases in ethanol production strengthen corn 

demand. In the longer run, higher acreage and gains in yields are sufficient to meet slower 

ethanol production gains and moderate export growth, resulting in rising stocks-to-use 

ratios and falling prices for corn. Nonetheless, corn prices remain high. 

 

• Acreage reductions for soybeans and declines in stocks from initially large levels lead to 

large soybean price increases through the early years of the projections. In the longer run, 

soybean prices are projected to fall back somewhat due to supply response in South 

America. 

• Wheat prices are held high in the early years of the projections despite somewhat higher 

production as higher corn prices support wheat prices by encouraging increased wheat feed 

use. Later in the projections, wheat exports increase moderately, lowering the stocks-touse ratio and raising wheat prices further. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Fiscal year

Sugar: Domestic production, use, and imports

Million short tons

Domestic use

Imports

Production

Sugar projections for the United States and Mexico are strongly interrelated. For additional discussion 

of projections for Mexico, see Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, February 2007, available at 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1386. 

• On July 27, 2006, the United States and Mexico announced an agreement that resolves disputes 

related to each nation’s interpretation of sweetener provisions of the North American Free Trade 

Agreement (NAFTA). Effective on January 1, 2008, there will be no duties or quantitative 

restraints on sugar or high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) trade between the two countries. Mexico’s 

over-quota tariff on U.S. sugar will be eliminated on January 1, 2008, as required by the NAFTA. 

The United States and Mexico confirmed that on July 3, 2006, they submitted a joint letter to the 

World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Body in which both countries accepted in 

principle the elimination of Mexico’s soft drink and distribution taxes. 

• Mexico’s beverage industry is assumed to shift to higher use of HFCS in 2008 and subsequent years 

in the projection period. This implies a higher exportable surplus of sugar from Mexico. Returns 

from exporting sugar to the United States are higher than either delivering sugar to domestic food 

manufacturers for use in sugar-containing product exports or exporting sugar to other countries at 

world prices. As a result, Mexican sugar exports are projected to rise to 889,000 metric tons, raw 

value (MTRV) in 2008. After 2008, Mexican sugar exports decrease about 40,000 MTRV per year 

as more production is used to satisfy expanding Mexican sweetener demand. (In Mexico, per capita 

sweetener consumption is assumed to grow about 0.9 percent a year.) 

• The U.S. sugar price support program includes the loan rate program and marketing allotments. 

With high imports of sugar projected, the import trigger (1.532 million short ton, raw value--STRV) 

for suspension of allotments is likely to be exceeded in all years of the projections. Downward 

price pressures implied by NAFTA sugar imports indicate forfeitures to the Commodity Credit 

Corporation (CCC) throughout the projection period, which average 164,000 STRV per year. 

Historical growth trends in U.S. sugar sector productivity measures (sugarbeet yields, sugarcane 

yields, and sugar per acre) are assumed to continue throughout the projections. 

• The raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) is established each year in the projections at 1,117,195 MTRV, 

the WTO minimum access level. The refined sugar TRQ is established each year at 57,000 MTRV. 

The yearly raw sugar TRQ shortfall is assumed to equal about 45,000 MTRV. 

• The sugar projections assume that sweetener consumption in the United States grows at the same 

rate as does population. Because growth in imports of sugar-containing products is higher than 

population growth, per capita consumption of domestically delivered sugar decreases slightly 

during the projection period. 
34 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

200

400

600

800

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. flue-cured and burley tobacco: Domestic use and exports

Million pounds

Flue-cured domestic use 1/

Flue-cured exports

Burley exports

Burley domestic use 1/

1/ Domestic use includes domestically grown and imported tobacco. 

The tobacco sector is continuing to adjust to the post-program era. Legislation enacted in October 

2004 ended the U.S. tobacco marketing quota and price support program beginning with the 2005 

crop year. During the first season without a program (2005/06), nearly half of the tobacco 

producers pulled out of production. Remaining growers grew similar levels as previously. During 

the second season after the program, many of those remaining growers expanded operations and 

tobacco acreage and production increased. Production during the 2006 crop year is expected to be 

about 13 percent greater than the first post-program crop. 

• Tobacco leaf production expands starting in 2006 as costs decline due to the elimination of 

costs associated with acquiring quota and as economies of scale are achieved on fewer, 

larger farms. Additionally, production shifts to areas such as the Coastal Plain of North 

Carolina and western Kentucky, where producers can achieve more economically viable 

scales of operation. Pennsylvania has become a major burley producing State. Leaf prices 

recovered slightly in 2006/07 and are projected to remain favorable for growers with 

marketing contracts. 

 

• Tobacco exports are projected to increase moderately over the next decade. U.S. leaf 

remains competitive on the global market although the tobacco industry also faces 

competition from foreign producers, particularly Brazil. 

• Declining cigarette consumption in the United States is an important factor underlying 

projected decreases in domestic use of tobacco leaf. Cigarette sales in the United States are 

expected to continue to fall 2-3 percent per year for the projection period. Per capita 

consumption declines as restrictions on smoking become more widespread and as the cost 

of cigarettes increases due to higher prices and taxes. Exports of cigarettes will likely 

stabilize near current levels. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nursery and greenhouse

Fruit and nuts

Vegetables and melons

Billion dollars

Value of horticultural production

The total farmgate production value of horticultural crops for 2006 is $50 billion, with about a 

third of the total accruing to each of the following three categories: fruits and nuts; vegetables and 

melons; and nursery, greenhouse, and other crops. The production value grows by 2.5 percent 

annually over the next decade, reaching $64 billion. 

• U.S. imports of horticultural products (fruit and nuts, vegetables, greenhouse and nursery 

products, essential oils, beer, and wine) are projected to continue outpacing exports, with 

net imports expected to increase about $7 billion from 2006 to 2016. The dollar’s 

appreciation after 2008 is an important factor affecting trade, slowing export demand for 

U.S. horticultural products and raising U.S. import demand. 

• U.S. horticultural imports are expected to grow by about 4 percent annually through 2016. 

Imports play an important role in domestic supply during the winter and, increasingly, 

during other times of the year. Reduced trade barriers offer U.S. consumers increased 

variety, with freer trade also enhancing global competition. 

• The EU is the top source of U.S. horticultural imports, accounting for $8.4 billion out of a 

total $29.2 billion in 2006. Mexico is the second biggest source of U.S. horticultural 

imports, which amounted to $6.7 billion in 2006. Chile, Canada, and Brazil are also large 

sources of horticultural product imports by the United States. Key import commodities 

include potatoes, tomatoes, bananas, grapes, frozen concentrated orange juice, apple juice, 

melons, tree nuts (especially cashews), wine, beer, and essential oils. 

• U.S. horticultural exports are expected to grow by 3 percent a year through 2016, with the 

major export markets including Canada, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Exports of almonds, 

other tree nuts, and noncitrus fruits will lead export growth of fruit and nuts. Exports of 

fresh vegetables will be stronger than processed vegetables. Exports of wine and essential 

oils are also expected to increase. 
36 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2005-2016

Direct payment 

rate

Marketing assistance 

loan rate Target price

Dollars 1

Corn 0.28 1.95 2.63

Sorghum 0.35 1.95 2.57

Barley 0.24 1.85 2.24

Oats 0.024 1.33 1.44

Wheat 0.52 2.75 3.92

Rice 2.35 6.50 10.50

Upland cotton 0.0667 0.52 0.724

Soybeans 0.44 5.00 5.80

1/ Units are dollars per bushel except for upland cotton (per pound) and rice (per 

hundredweight). 

Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million acres

Corn 6.0 6.2 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.8

Sorghum 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Barley 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Oats 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

Wheat 8.4 8.7 9.0 8.2 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4

Upland cotton 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7

Soybeans 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2

Subtotal 23.6 24.4 25.2 23.1 22.2 22.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.4

Other 11.4 11.7 11.8 10.5 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.8

Total 35.0 36.1 37.1 33.6 32.2 33.0 34.1 35.6 36.7 37.4 37.9 39.2

Crop allocation
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 37

Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million acres

Planted acreage, eight major crops

Corn 81.8 78.6 86.0 89.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0

Sorghum 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5

Barley 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Oats 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

Wheat 57.2 57.3 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5

Rice 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

Upland cotton 14.0 15.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8

Soybeans 72.0 75.6 71.0 69.5 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 68.8 68.8 68.8

 Total 243.0 243.3 247.4 247.9 246.9 247.6 247.6 247.6 247.6 247.4 247.3 247.3

Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 75.1 71.0 78.8 81.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8

Sorghum 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7

Barley 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Oats 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

Wheat 50.1 46.8 51.0 50.6 50.2 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7

Rice 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

Upland cotton 13.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6

Soybeans 71.3 74.5 69.9 68.4 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.7 67.7 67.7

 Total 224.2 217.5 225.2 225.9 225.0 225.6 225.7 225.8 225.7 225.5 225.5 225.5
38 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Yields1

Corn 147.9 151.2 153.1 155.0 156.9 158.8 160.7 162.6 164.5 166.4 168.3 170.2 

Sorghum 68.7 54.2 64.8 65.2 65.6 66.0 66.4 66.8 67.2 67.6 68.0 68.4 

Barley 64.8 61.0 64.8 65.4 66.0 66.6 67.2 67.8 68.4 69.0 69.6 70.2 

Oats 63.0 59.5 62.9 63.3 63.7 64.1 64.5 64.9 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 

Wheat 42.0 38.7 42.5 42.8 43.1 43.4 43.7 44.0 44.3 44.6 44.9 45.2 

Rice 6,636 6,847 6,916 6,991 7,060 7,130 7,192 7,256 7,321 7,379 7,437 7,496 

Upland cotton 825 788 800 810 820 830 840 850 855 860 865 870 

Soybeans 43.0 43.0 41.5 42.0 42.4 42.9 43.3 43.8 44.2 44.7 45.1 45.6 

Production2

Corn 11,112 10,745 12,065 12,680 12,835 13,150 13,305 13,465 13,620 13,780 13,935 14,095 

Sorghum 394 288 330 320 320 325 325 325 325 325 320 320 

Barley 212 180 195 195 200 200 200 205 205 205 210 210 

Oats 115 94 120 120 120 120 125 125 125 125 125 125 

Wheat 2,105 1,812 2,170 2,165 2,165 2,155 2,170 2,185 2,200 2,215 2,230 2,245 

Rice 223.2 193.3 213.0 211.1 213.6 216.0 219.0 221.3 223.7 225.8 227.9 230.1 

Upland cotton 23,260 20,510 20,700 20,800 21,000 21,400 21,900 22,100 22,300 22,400 22,700 22,800 

Soybeans 3,063 3,204 2,900 2,870 2,880 2,910 2,940 2,970 3,000 3,025 3,055 3,085 

Exports2

Corn 2,147 2,200 1,925 1,850 1,850 1,925 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 

Sorghum 195 165 160 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 

Barley 28 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 

Oats 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 

Wheat 1,009 925 950 950 950 975 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,075 1,100 1,125 

Rice 115.8 97.0 107.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 109.0 111.0 113.0 114.5 116.0 117.5 

Upland cotton 17,437 15,450 16,700 16,300 16,400 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 17,800 18,000 18,150 

Soybeans 947 1,145 1,150 980 845 845 850 850 855 865 875 875 

Soybean meal 7,950 8,500 9,000 9,950 10,100 10,200 10,450 10,500 10,500 10,600 10,600 10,700 

Ending stocks2

Corn 1,971 935 660 620 580 640 670 700 725 750 765 805 

Sorghum 65 39 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 

Barley 108 93 93 93 98 97 96 100 99 97 100 98 

Oats 53 49 51 53 50 47 49 51 48 50 52 49 

Wheat 571 418 493 517 517 482 462 442 427 422 422 427 

Rice 43.0 34.5 34.2 30.4 28.3 27.9 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 

Upland cotton 5,981 5,912 4,850 4,400 4,150 4,300 4,650 4,900 5,150 5,300 5,550 5,750 

Soybeans 449 565 355 237 235 237 234 232 235 233 229 230 

Prices3

Corn 2.00 3.00 3.50 3.60 3.75 3.55 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.35 3.35 3.30

Sorghum 1.86 3.00 3.30 3.35 3.50 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.10 3.05

Barley 2.53 2.89 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.55 3.45 3.45 3.40 3.35 3.35 3.35

Oats 1.63 1.85 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.35 2.25 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.10 2.10

Wheat 3.42 4.35 4.45 4.25 4.25 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.55 4.55

Rice 7.62 9.25 8.95 8.95 9.20 9.35 9.41 9.43 9.50 9.60 9.70 9.83

Soybeans 5.66 5.90 7.00 7.25 7.30 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.80 6.75 6.75 6.75

Soybean oil 0.234 0.260 0.300 0.315 0.320 0.315 0.310 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305

Soybean meal 174.2 177.5 200.0 205.0 205.0 195.0 192.5 190.0 188.5 186.5 185.0 185.0

1/ Bushels per acre except for upland cotton and rice (pounds per acre).

2/ Million bushels except for upland cotton (thousand bales), rice (million hundredweight), and soybean meal (thousand tons).

3/ Dollars per bushel except for soybean oil (per pound), rice (per hundredweight), and soybean meal (per ton).
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 39

Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 81.8 78.6 86.0 89.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0

 Harvested acres 75.1 71.0 78.8 81.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 147.9 151.2 153.1 155.0 156.9 158.8 160.7 162.6 164.5 166.4 168.3 170.2

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 2,114 1,971 935 660 620 580 640 670 700 725 750 765

 Production 11,112 10,745 12,065 12,680 12,835 13,150 13,305 13,465 13,620 13,780 13,935 14,095

 Imports 9 10 15 20 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

 Supply 13,235 12,725 13,015 13,360 13,480 13,750 13,965 14,155 14,340 14,525 14,705 14,880

 Feed & residual 6,136 6,050 5,825 5,775 5,725 5,750 5,775 5,800 5,850 5,900 5,950 5,975

 Food, seed, & industrial 2,981 3,540 4,605 5,115 5,325 5,435 5,520 5,605 5,665 5,725 5,790 5,850

 Fuel alcohol use1 1,603 2,150 3,200 3,700 3,900 4,000 4,075 4,150 4,200 4,250 4,300 4,350

 Domestic use 9,117 9,590 10,430 10,890 11,050 11,185 11,295 11,405 11,515 11,625 11,740 11,825

 Exports 2,147 2,200 1,925 1,850 1,850 1,925 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250

 Total use 11,264 11,790 12,355 12,740 12,900 13,110 13,295 13,455 13,615 13,775 13,940 14,075

 Ending stocks 1,971 935 660 620 580 640 670 700 725 750 765 805

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 17.5 7.9 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 2.00 3.00 3.50 3.60 3.75 3.55 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.35 3.35 3.30

 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 194 207 216 222 225 228 230 233 236 239 242 245

 Per bushel 1.31 1.37 1.41 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 132 247 319 336 363 336 332 328 323 318 321 316

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn. 1/ Corn used in ethanol production is accounted for in fuel alcohol use. Distillers grains, a coproduct of 

ethanol production, is not accounted for in the balance sheet for corn.
40 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5

 Harvested acres 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 68.7 54.2 64.8 65.2 65.6 66.0 66.4 66.8 67.2 67.6 68.0 68.4

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 57 65 39 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

 Production 394 288 330 320 320 325 325 325 325 325 320 320

 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Supply 451 354 369 354 354 359 359 359 359 359 354 354

 Feed & residual 141 95 120 120 120 125 125 125 125 125 120 120

 Food, seed, & industrial 50 55 55 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

 Domestic 191 150 175 170 170 175 175 175 175 175 170 170

 Exports 195 165 160 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

 Total use 386 315 335 320 320 325 325 325 325 325 320 320

 Ending stocks 65 39 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 16.8 12.4 10.1 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 1.86 3.00 3.30 3.35 3.50 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.10 3.05

 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 125 132 137 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 154 156

 Per bushel 1.81 2.43 2.11 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.21 2.23 2.25 2.27 2.29

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 23 31 77 79 88 74 70 66 62 57 57 52

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 41

Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

 Harvested acres 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 64.8 61.0 64.8 65.4 66.0 66.6 67.2 67.8 68.4 69.0 69.6 70.2

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 128 108 88 88 88 93 92 91 95 94 92 95

 Production 212 180 195 195 200 200 200 205 205 205 210 210

 Imports 5 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

 Supply 346 303 303 308 313 318 317 321 325 324 327 330

 Feed & residual 52 40 40 45 45 50 50 50 55 55 55 60

 Food, seed, & industrial 158 155 155 155 155 156 156 156 156 157 157 157

 Domestic 210 195 195 200 200 206 206 206 211 212 212 217

 Exports 28 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

 Total use 238 215 215 220 220 226 226 226 231 232 232 237

 Ending stocks 108 88 88 88 93 92 91 95 94 92 95 93

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 45.4 40.9 40.9 40.0 42.3 40.7 40.3 42.0 40.7 39.7 40.9 39.2

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 2.53 2.90 3.50 3.50 3.60 3.40 3.25 3.25 3.20 3.15 3.15 3.15

 Loan rate 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 94 100 104 106 108 109 111 112 114 115 117 119

 Per bushel 1.45 1.63 1.60 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.67 1.68 1.69

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 71 77 123 122 130 117 108 108 105 102 102 103

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley. 
42 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

 Harvested acres 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 63.0 59.5 62.9 63.3 63.7 64.1 64.5 64.9 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 58 53 49 51 53 50 47 49 51 48 50 52

 Production 115 94 120 120 120 120 125 125 125 125 125 125

 Imports 91 105 85 90 90 90 90 90 90 95 95 95

 Supply 264 251 254 261 263 260 262 264 266 268 270 272

 Feed & residual 135 125 125 130 135 135 135 135 140 140 140 145

 Food, seed, & industrial 74 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

 Domestic 209 200 200 205 210 210 210 210 215 215 215 220

 Exports 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

 Total use 211 202 203 208 213 213 213 213 218 218 218 223

 Ending stocks 53 49 51 53 50 47 49 51 48 50 52 49

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 25.1 24.3 25.1 25.5 23.5 22.1 23.0 23.9 22.0 22.9 23.9 22.0

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 1.63 1.85 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.35 2.25 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.10 2.10

 Loan rate 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 63 67 70 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 80 81

 Per bushel 1.00 1.13 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 40 43 81 83 86 77 70 67 63 59 59 59

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 43

Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 57.2 57.3 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5

 Harvested acres 50.1 46.8 51.0 50.6 50.2 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 42.0 38.7 42.5 42.8 43.1 43.4 43.7 44.0 44.3 44.6 44.9 45.2

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 540 571 418 493 517 517 482 462 442 427 422 422

 Production 2,105 1,812 2,170 2,165 2,165 2,155 2,170 2,185 2,200 2,215 2,230 2,245

 Imports 82 105 100 105 105 110 110 115 115 120 120 125

 Supply 2,727 2,488 2,688 2,763 2,787 2,782 2,762 2,762 2,757 2,762 2,772 2,792

 Food 915 920 930 935 940 945 950 955 960 965 970 975

 Seed 78 80 80 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

 Feed & residual 153 145 235 280 300 300 270 260 240 220 200 185

 Domestic 1,146 1,145 1,245 1,296 1,320 1,325 1,300 1,295 1,280 1,265 1,250 1,240

 Exports 1,009 925 950 950 950 975 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,075 1,100 1,125

 Total use 2,155 2,070 2,195 2,246 2,270 2,300 2,300 2,320 2,330 2,340 2,350 2,365

 Ending stocks 571 418 493 517 517 482 462 442 427 422 422 427

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 26.5 20.2 22.5 23.0 22.8 21.0 20.1 19.1 18.3 18.0 18.0 18.1

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 3.42 4.35 4.45 4.25 4.25 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.55 4.55

 Loan rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 80 86 89 91 93 94 95 97 98 100 101 102

 Per bushel 1.91 2.21 2.10 2.14 2.15 2.17 2.18 2.20 2.22 2.23 2.25 2.27

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 63 83 100 90 90 95 97 99 101 103 103 103

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat. 
44 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Soybeans

Area (million acres):

 Planted 72.0 75.6 71.0 69.5 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 68.8 68.8 68.8

 Harvested 71.3 74.5 69.9 68.4 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.7 67.7 67.7

Yield/harvested acre (bushels) 43.0 43.0 41.5 42.0 42.4 42.9 43.3 43.8 44.2 44.7 45.1 45.6

Supply (million bushels)

 Beginning stocks, Sep. 1 256 449 565 355 237 235 237 234 232 235 233 229

 Production 3,063 3,204 2,900 2,870 2,880 2,910 2,940 2,970 3,000 3,025 3,055 3,085

 Imports 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

 Total supply 3,322 3,657 3,469 3,229 3,121 3,149 3,181 3,208 3,236 3,264 3,292 3,318

Disposition (million bushels)

 Crush 1,739 1,780 1,820 1,870 1,895 1,920 1,950 1,975 1,995 2,015 2,035 2,060

 Seed and residual 188 166 144 143 146 147 147 151 151 152 152 153

 Exports 947 1,145 1,150 980 845 845 850 850 855 865 875 875

 Total disposition 2,874 3,091 3,114 2,993 2,886 2,912 2,947 2,976 3,001 3,032 3,062 3,088

Carryover stocks, Aug. 31

 Total ending stocks 449 565 355 237 235 237 234 232 235 233 229 230

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 15.6 18.3 11.4 7.9 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.4

Prices (dollars per bushel)

 Loan rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00

 Soybean price, farm 5.66 5.90 7.00 7.25 7.30 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.80 6.75 6.75 6.75

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 91 97 101 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111

 Per bushel 2.11 2.25 2.43 2.46 2.46 2.45 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.43 2.43 2.43

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 153 157 190 201 205 195 193 191 193 193 195 197

Soybean oil (million pounds)

 Beginning stocks, Oct. 1 1,699 2,968 2,688 2,088 1,888 1,878 1,883 1,883 1,903 1,883 1,818 1,738

 Production 20,393 20,115 20,750 21,365 21,670 21,975 22,335 22,645 22,895 23,140 23,390 23,700

 Imports 35 55 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215

 Total supply 22,127 23,138 23,563 23,588 23,703 24,008 24,383 24,703 24,983 25,218 25,413 25,653

 Domestic disappearance 18,009 19,200 20,500 20,825 21,125 21,425 21,725 22,025 22,325 22,625 22,925 23,225

 Exports 1,150 1,250 975 875 700 700 775 775 775 775 750 725

 Total demand 19,159 20,450 21,475 21,700 21,825 22,125 22,500 22,800 23,100 23,400 23,675 23,950

 Ending stocks, Sep. 30 2,968 2,688 2,088 1,888 1,878 1,883 1,883 1,903 1,883 1,818 1,738 1,703

 Soybean oil price (dollars per lb) 0.234 0.260 0.300 0.315 0.320 0.315 0.310 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305

Soybean meal (thousand short tons)

 Beginning stocks, Oct. 1 172 320 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

 Production 41,241 42,415 43,285 44,535 45,135 45,710 46,435 46,960 47,435 48,010 48,485 49,060

 Imports 140 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165

 Total supply 41,553 42,900 43,750 45,000 45,600 46,175 46,900 47,425 47,900 48,475 48,950 49,525

 Domestic disappearance 33,283 34,100 34,450 34,750 35,200 35,675 36,150 36,625 37,100 37,575 38,050 38,525

 Exports 7,950 8,500 9,000 9,950 10,100 10,200 10,450 10,500 10,500 10,600 10,600 10,700

 Total demand 41,233 42,600 43,450 44,700 45,300 45,875 46,600 47,125 47,600 48,175 48,650 49,225

 Ending stocks, Sep. 30 320 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

 Soybean meal price (dollars per ton) 174.17 177.50 200.00 205.00 205.00 195.00 192.50 190.00 188.50 186.50 185.00 185.00

 Crushing yields (pounds per bushel)

 Soybean oil 11.73 11.30 11.40 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49 11.50 11.51

 Soybean meal 47.44 47.66 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60

 Crush margin (dollars per bushel) 1.22 1.27 1.18 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.23 1.22 1.19 1.19 1.16 1.16

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 45

Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (thousand acres):

 Planted 3,384 2,841 3,100 3,040 3,045 3,050 3,065 3,070 3,075 3,080 3,085 3,090 

 Harvested 3,364 2,823 3,080 3,020 3,025 3,030 3,045 3,050 3,055 3,060 3,065 3,070 

Yields (pounds per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 6,636 6,847 6,916 6,991 7,060 7,130 7,192 7,256 7,321 7,379 7,437 7,496 

Supply and use (million cwt):

 Beginning stocks 37.7 43.0 34.5 34.2 30.4 28.3 27.9 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2

 Production 223.2 193.3 213.0 211.1 213.6 216.0 219.0 221.3 223.7 225.8 227.9 230.1

 Imports 17.1 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.1

 Total supply 278.1 254.3 266.0 264.4 263.6 264.5 267.7 271.6 275.2 278.2 281.3 284.4

 Domestic use and residual 119.3 122.8 124.8 126.0 127.3 128.6 129.9 131.2 132.5 133.8 135.1 136.5

 Exports 115.8 97.0 107.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 109.0 111.0 113.0 114.5 116.0 117.5

 Total use 235.1 219.8 231.8 234.0 235.3 236.6 238.9 242.2 245.5 248.3 251.1 254.0

 Ending stocks (million cwt.) 43.0 34.5 34.2 30.4 28.3 27.9 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 18.3 15.7 14.8 13.0 12.0 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0

Milling rate, percent 70.3 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0

Prices (dollars per cwt.):

 World price 6.21 7.00 7.20 7.45 7.70 7.85 8.01 8.13 8.25 8.37 8.50 8.63

 Average market price 7.62 9.25 8.95 8.95 9.20 9.35 9.41 9.43 9.50 9.60 9.70 9.83

 Loan rate 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 399 421 437 447 454 459 465 470 476 482 488 495

 Per cwt. 6.01 6.16 6.32 6.40 6.43 6.44 6.46 6.48 6.51 6.54 6.57 6.60

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 126 212 182 179 196 208 212 214 219 226 233 242

Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice. 
46 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections

Item 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 14.0 15.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8

 Harvested acres 13.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6

Yields (pounds per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 825 788 800 810 820 830 840 850 855 860 865 870

Supply and use (thousand bales):

 Beginning stocks 5,482 5,981 5,912 4,850 4,400 4,150 4,300 4,650 4,900 5,150 5,300 5,550

 Production 23,260 20,510 20,700 20,800 21,000 21,400 21,900 22,100 22,300 22,400 22,700 22,800

 Imports 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

 Supply 28,751 26,501 26,622 25,660 25,410 25,560 26,210 26,760 27,210 27,560 28,010 28,360

 Domestic use 5,837 5,150 5,050 4,950 4,850 4,750 4,650 4,550 4,450 4,450 4,450 4,450

 Exports 17,437 15,450 16,700 16,300 16,400 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 17,800 18,000 18,150

 Total use 23,274 20,600 21,750 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,550 21,850 22,050 22,250 22,450 22,600

 Ending stocks 5,981 5,912 4,850 4,400 4,150 4,300 4,650 4,900 5,150 5,300 5,550 5,750

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 25.7 28.7 22.3 20.7 19.5 20.2 21.6 22.4 23.4 23.8 24.7 25.4

Prices (dollars per pound):

 Farm price1 0.477 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

 Loan rate 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 361 372 390 400 406 410 414 419 423 428 433 438

 Per pound 0.44 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.50

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns2 196 144 144 147 156 161 162 166 165 160 155 153

Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton.

1/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections.

2/ Net returns include estimates of marketing loan benefits.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 47

Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections 1/

Item Units 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sugarbeets

 Planted area 1,000 acres 1,300 1,362 1,260 1,222 1,197 1,186 1,190 1,194 1,196 1,197 1,198 1,199

 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,243 1,306 1,231 1,121 1,151 1,143 1,153 1,160 1,163 1,164 1,164 1,165

 Yield Tons/acre 22.2 25.8 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.1 

 Production Mil. s. tons 27.5 33.6 28.6 26.3 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 

Sugarcane

 Harvested area 1,000 acres 858 860 844 790 824 822 824 824 825 824 825 825

 Yield Tons/acre 28.7 31.8 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 35.1 35.2 

 Production Mil. s. tons 24.6 27.3 28.9 27.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 

Supply:

 Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,332 1,761 1,870 2,379 2,013 1,986 1,948 1,926 1,916 1,914 1,914 1,914

 Production 1,000 s. tons 7,399 8,518 8,402 7,853 8,205 8,254 8,389 8,506 8,607 8,697 8,785 8,875

 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,444 4,901 4,453 4,114 4,282 4,307 4,400 4,483 4,553 4,612 4,669 4,726

 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 2,955 3,617 3,949 3,739 3,923 3,947 3,989 4,022 4,055 4,085 4,116 4,149

 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 3,443 2,206 2,752 2,433 2,512 2,490 2,412 2,351 2,301 2,259 2,215 2,166

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 2,588 1,821 1,437 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,244

 Total supply 1,000 s. tons 12,174 12,485 13,024 12,712 12,730 12,731 12,749 12,782 12,824 12,869 12,914 12,955

Use:

 Exports 1,000 s. tons 203 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 10,326 10,415 10,445 10,499 10,544 10,583 10,623 10,666 10,710 10,755 10,800 10,845

 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -116 00000000000

 Total use 1,000 s. tons 10,413 10,615 10,645 10,699 10,744 10,783 10,823 10,866 10,910 10,955 11,000 11,045

Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,761 1,870 2,379 2,013 1,986 1,948 1,926 1,916 1,914 1,914 1,914 1,909

 CCC Acquisitions 1,000 s. tons 0 46 497 -362 -20 -35 -21 -5 3 5 4 0

 Private Ending Stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,761 1,824 1,836 1,833 1,826 1,822 1,822 1,817 1,812 1,807 1,803 1,798

 CCC Ending Stocks 1,000 s. tons 0 46 543 180 160 125 104 99 102 107 111 111

Stocks/use ratio Percent 16.9 17.6 22.4 18.8 18.5 18.1 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3

Raw sugar price:

New York (No. 14) Cents/lb. 22.62 20.79 20.77 20.77 20.77 20.77 20.75 20.75 20.75 20.75 20.74 20.74

Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00

Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90 22.90

Grower prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 41.30 36.16 33.33 31.71 32.97 33.45 33.98 34.38 34.67 34.90 35.12 35.36

Sugarcane Dol./ton 27.90 29.91 30.57 30.71 30.83 30.96 31.07 31.19 31.30 31.41 31.52 31.63

1/ Fiscal years, October 1 through September 30.
48 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 17. Flue-cured tobacco long-term projections

Item Unit 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area, yield,

 and production:

Planted area 1,000 acres 176 208 214 213 218 217 222 221 226 225 227 229 

Harvested area 1,000 acres 176 208 214 213 218 217 222 221 226 225 227 229 

Yield lbs./acre 2,182 2,185 2,200 2,250 2,250 2,300 2,300 2,350 2,350 2,400 2,400 2,400 

Production Mil. lbs. 383 455 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 545 550 

Supply:

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 1,050 1,089 936 826 736 663 598 548 508 483 468 463 

Marketings Mil. lbs. 383 455 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 545 550 

Imports Mil. lbs. 161 165 165 170 172 175 175 175 170 165 160 155 

 Total1 Mil. lbs. 1,594 1,708 1,571 1,476 1,398 1,338 1,283 1,243 1,208 1,188 1,173 1,168 

Use:

Domestic Mil. lbs. 505 485 475 465 460 460 455 450 440 430 420 410 

Exports Mil. lbs. 258 267 270 275 275 280 280 285 285 290 290 295 

 Total1 Mil. lbs. 764 752 745 740 735 740 735 735 725 720 710 705 

Ending stocks:

 Total Mil. lbs. 1,089 936 826 736 663 598 548 508 483 468 463 463 

Price:

Avg. to growers $/cwt 147 155 168 170 175 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

1/ Includes both domestically grown and imported tobacco leaf.

Table 18. Burley tobacco long-term projections

Item Unit 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Area, yield,

 and production:

Planted area 1,000 acres 100 104 111 116 118 124 128 135 140 146 148 151

Harvested area 1,000 acres 100 104 111 116 118 124 128 135 140 146 148 151

Yield lbs./acre 2,031 2,097 2,200 2,200 2,250 2,250 2,300 2,300 2,325 2,325 2,325 2,325

Production Mil. lbs. 203 217 245 255 265 280 295 310 325 340 345 350

Supply:

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 777 639 547 477 412 353 303 263 233 218 218 218

Marketings Mil. lbs. 203 217 245 255 265 280 295 310 325 340 345 350

Imports Mil. lbs. 191 190 185 180 175 170 165 165 165 165 165 165

 Total1 Mil. lbs. 1,171 1,047 977 912 852 803 763 738 723 723 728 733

Use:

Domestic Mil. lbs. 323 290 287 285 282 280 277 280 280 280 282 285

Exports Mil. lbs. 209 210 213 215 218 220 223 225 225 225 228 230

 Total1 Mil. lbs. 532 500 500 500 500 500 500 505 505 505 510 515

Ending stocks:

 Total Mil. lbs. 639 547 477 412 353 303 263 233 218 218 218 218

Price:

Avg. to growers $/cwt 156 165 170 175 180 185 190 190 190 190 190 190

1/ Includes both domestically grown and imported tobacco leaf.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 49

Table 19. Horticultural crops long-term projections: Production, values, and prices, calendar years

Item Unit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Acreage1

:

 Fruit and nuts

 Citrus 1,000 acres 946 878 882 886 891 895 900 904 909 913 918 923

 Noncitrus2 1,000 acres 2,095 2,099 2,103 2,108 2,112 2,116 2,120 2,125 2,129 2,133 2,137 2,142

 Tree nuts 1,000 acres 946 956 965 975 985 995 1,005 1,015 1,025 1,035 1,045 1,056

 Total fruit and nuts 1,000 acres 3,987 3,933 3,951 3,969 3,987 4,006 4,025 4,043 4,062 4,081 4,101 4,120

 Vegetables and melons

 Fresh market3 1,000 acres 2,028 2,038 2,048 2,058 2,069 2,079 2,089 2,100 2,110 2,121 2,131 2,142

 Processing 1,000 acres 1,286 1,273 1,260 1,248 1,235 1,223 1,211 1,199 1,187 1,175 1,163 1,151

 Potatoes 1,000 acres 1,087 1,119 1,120 1,121 1,122 1,123 1,125 1,126 1,127 1,128 1,129 1,130

 Pulses 1,000 acres 2,763 2,829 2,458 2,495 2,532 2,570 2,609 2,648 2,688 2,728 2,769 2,810

 Total vegetables 1,000 acres 7,164 7,259 6,887 6,922 6,958 6,996 7,033 7,072 7,111 7,152 7,192 7,234

 Total horticulture crops4 1,000 acres 11,343 11,382 11,026 11,078 11,131 11,184 11,239 11,295 11,352 11,409 11,468 11,528

Production, farm value:

 Fruit and nuts

 Citrus $ Mil. 2,303 2,680 2,720 2,761 2,802 2,844 2,887 2,930 2,974 3,019 3,064 3,110

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 9,955 10,244 10,541 10,847 11,161 11,485 11,818 12,161 12,513 12,876 13,250 13,634

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,967 4,110 4,258 4,411 4,570 4,734 4,905 5,082 5,264 5,454 5,650 5,854

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 16,226 17,033 17,519 18,018 18,533 19,063 19,610 20,172 20,752 21,349 21,964 22,597

 Vegetables and melons

 Fresh market $ Mil. 10,945 11,251 11,139 11,451 11,771 12,101 12,440 12,788 13,146 13,514 13,893 14,282

 Processing5 $ Mil. 2,052 2,062 2,072 2,082 2,093 2,103 2,114 2,124 2,135 2,146 2,156 2,167

 Potatoes6 $ Mil. 2,903 2,965 3,028 3,092 3,158 3,226 3,295 3,366 3,439 3,514 3,590 3,668

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 15,900 16,278 16,238 16,625 17,022 17,430 17,849 18,279 18,720 19,174 19,639 20,117

 Nursery/greenhouse7 $ Mil. 16,202 16,562 16,949 17,345 17,750 18,165 18,590 19,024 19,469 19,924 20,391 20,868

 Floriculture $ Mil. 5,363 5,452 5,561 5,673 5,786 5,902 6,020 6,140 6,263 6,388 6,516 6,646

 Nursery and other $ Mil. 10,839 11,110 11,388 11,672 11,964 12,263 12,570 12,884 13,206 13,536 13,875 14,221

Total, horticultural crops $ Mil. 48,767 50,314 51,149 52,433 53,752 55,107 56,498 57,927 59,395 60,902 62,451 64,042

Production, farm weight:

 Fruit and nuts

 Citrus Mil. lbs. 23,148 23,168 23,377 23,586 23,793 24,000 24,207 24,415 24,624 24,833 25,043 25,252

 Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 36,655 36,988 37,322 37,654 37,986 38,316 38,646 38,979 39,312 39,646 39,980 40,315

 Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 2,966 3,010 3,056 3,101 3,148 3,195 3,243 3,292 3,341 3,391 3,442 3,494

 Total fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 62,769 63,166 63,755 64,342 64,927 65,511 66,096 66,685 67,277 67,871 68,465 69,061

 Vegetables and melons

 Fresh market Mil. lbs. 49,555 49,059 49,502 49,944 50,383 50,821 51,259 51,700 52,142 52,585 53,029 53,472

 Processing5 Mil. lbs. 36,528 36,860 37,193 37,524 37,854 38,183 38,513 38,844 39,176 39,509 39,842 40,175

 Potatoes6 Mil. lbs. 42,393 43,479 44,046 44,471 44,898 45,328 45,761 46,198 46,638 47,082 47,529 47,979

 Total vegetables Mil. lbs. 128,476 129,398 130,741 131,939 133,136 134,333 135,533 136,742 137,956 139,176 140,400 141,627

Total, horticultural crops Mil. lbs. 191,523 192,840 194,769 196,551 198,331 200,109 201,892 203,687 205,490 207,301 209,117 210,936

Producer prices8

 Fruit and nuts

 Citrus 2000=100 136.8 159.0 160.0 160.9 161.9 162.9 163.9 165.0 166.0 167.1 168.2 169.3

 Noncitrus 2000=100 129.9 132.5 135.1 137.8 140.5 143.4 146.3 149.2 152.3 155.4 158.5 161.8

 Tree nuts 2000=100 194.2 198.2 202.3 206.5 210.7 215.1 219.6 224.1 228.7 233.5 238.3 243.2

 Total fruit and nuts 2000=100 161.8 168.8 172.0 175.3 178.6 182.1 185.7 189.3 193.0 196.9 200.8 204.8

 Vegetables 

 Fresh market 2000=100 109.1 113.3 111.2 113.3 115.4 117.7 119.9 122.2 124.6 127.0 129.4 132.0

 Processing 2000=100 102.3 101.9 101.5 101.1 100.7 100.3 100.0 99.6 99.3 98.9 98.6 98.3

 Potatoes 2000=100 135.8 135.2 136.3 137.9 139.5 141.1 142.8 144.5 146.2 148.0 149.8 151.6

 Total vegetables 2000=100 116.7 118.7 117.2 118.9 120.6 122.4 124.2 126.1 128.0 130.0 132.0 134.0

 All fruit, nuts, vegetables 2000=100 134.4 138.3 138.7 141.1 143.4 145.9 148.4 150.9 153.5 156.2 158.9 161.7

1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. 2/ Includes olives; excludes melons. 3/ Includes melons, sweet potatoes, mushrooms, and dualuse crops which do not separate fresh-market from processing. 4/ Includes other crops (floriculture, hops, peppermint and spearmint oils, and Hawaiian tropical crops). 

5/ Includes pulses (dry edible beans, peas, and lentils) and processing agaricus mushrooms. 6/ Includes seed, feed, own farm use, or unutilized potatoes. 7/ Includes 

some fresh-market vegetables grown in greenhouses, such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and colored peppers. From USDA, Economic Research Service. 8/ Computed 

from unit values of production, or production value divided by production volume. 

Data source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
50 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 20. Horticultural crops long-term projections: Exports and imports, fiscal years

Item Unit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exports

 Fruit and nuts

 Fresh fruits $ Mil. 2,559 2,842 3,000 3,071 3,144 3,220 3,297 3,377 3,459 3,544 3,631 3,720

 Citrus $ Mil. 627 673 700 702 704 706 708 711 713 715 717 719

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 1,931 2,169 2,300 2,369 2,440 2,513 2,589 2,666 2,746 2,829 2,914 3,001

 Processed fruits $ Mil. 1,535 1,738 1,800 1,836 1,873 1,910 1,948 1,987 2,027 2,068 2,109 2,151

 Fruit juices $ Mil. 766 892 900 923 946 969 993 1,018 1,044 1,070 1,097 1,124

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 2,429 2,926 3,300 3,399 3,501 3,606 3,714 3,826 3,940 4,059 4,180 4,306

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 6,523 7,506 8,100 8,306 8,518 8,736 8,960 9,190 9,426 9,670 9,920 10,177

 Vegetables

 Fresh $ Mil. 1,567 1,630 1,700 1,751 1,804 1,858 1,913 1,971 2,030 2,091 2,154 2,218

 Processed1 $ Mil. 1,958 2,181 2,300 2,346 2,393 2,441 2,490 2,539 2,590 2,642 2,695 2,749

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 3,526 3,810 4,000 4,097 4,196 4,298 4,403 4,510 4,620 4,733 4,848 4,967

 Other horticulture

 Nursery/greenhouse $ Mil. 295 310 330 340 349 360 370 381 392 403 415 427

 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,031 1,041 1,100 1,134 1,169 1,206 1,243 1,281 1,321 1,362 1,404 1,448

 Wine $ Mil. 728 786 850 884 919 956 994 1,034 1,076 1,119 1,163 1,210

 Beer $ Mil. 195 207 220 221 222 223 224 226 227 228 229 230

 Other2 $ Mil. 2,577 3,006 3,800 3,952 4,110 4,274 4,445 4,623 4,808 5,001 5,201 5,409

Total horticulture $ Mil. 14,875 16,665 18,400 18,934 19,485 20,053 20,640 21,245 21,870 22,515 23,180 23,867

Fresh produce $ Mil. 4,126 4,472 4,700 4,822 4,948 5,077 5,210 5,348 5,489 5,634 5,784 5,938

Processed $ Mil. 10,453 11,884 13,370 13,772 14,188 14,616 15,059 15,517 15,989 16,477 16,981 17,502

Processed share3 Percent 70 71 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73

Export share of production Percent 31 33 36 36 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 38

Imports

 Fruit and nuts

 Fresh fruits $ Mil. 4,219 4,689 5,000 5,150 5,305 5,464 5,628 5,796 5,970 6,149 6,334 6,524

 Citrus $ Mil. 335 398 500 525 551 579 608 638 670 704 739 776

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 3,884 4,291 4,500 4,631 4,765 4,903 5,045 5,191 5,342 5,497 5,656 5,820

 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,343 2,603 2,800 2,867 2,936 3,006 3,079 3,153 3,228 3,306 3,385 3,466

 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,005 1,056 1,100 1,129 1,158 1,188 1,219 1,251 1,283 1,317 1,351 1,386

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,155 1,070 1,100 1,140 1,181 1,223 1,267 1,313 1,360 1,409 1,460 1,512

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 7,718 8,363 8,900 9,157 9,421 9,693 9,973 10,262 10,558 10,864 11,179 11,502

 Vegetables

 Fresh $ Mil. 3,518 3,979 4,300 4,494 4,696 4,907 5,128 5,359 5,600 5,852 6,115 6,390

 Processed1 $ Mil. 2,621 2,755 2,900 3,016 3,137 3,262 3,393 3,528 3,669 3,816 3,969 4,128

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 6,139 6,734 7,200 7,510 7,832 8,169 8,520 8,887 9,269 9,668 10,084 10,518

 Other horticulture

 Nursery/greenhouse $ Mil. 1,374 1,423 1,500 1,557 1,616 1,678 1,741 1,807 1,876 1,947 2,021 2,098

 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,435 2,469 2,500 2,568 2,637 2,708 2,781 2,856 2,933 3,013 3,094 3,177

 Wine $ Mil. 3,720 4,043 4,400 4,602 4,814 5,036 5,267 5,509 5,763 6,028 6,305 6,595

 Beer $ Mil. 2,978 3,375 3,500 3,623 3,749 3,881 4,016 4,157 4,302 4,453 4,609 4,770

 Other2 $ Mil. 2,515 2,782 3,200 3,360 3,528 3,704 3,890 4,084 4,288 4,503 4,728 4,964

Total horticulture $ Mil. 26,879 29,189 31,200 32,376 33,598 34,868 36,189 37,563 38,991 40,476 42,020 43,626

Fresh produce $ Mil. 7,738 8,668 9,300 9,644 10,000 10,371 10,755 11,155 11,570 12,001 12,449 12,914

Processed $ Mil. 17,767 19,098 20,400 21,175 21,981 22,820 23,693 24,600 25,545 26,527 27,549 28,613

Processed share3 Percent 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 66

Import share of consumption Percent 44 47 49 49 50 50 50 51 51 52 52 52

1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes other beverages, hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, food preparations, yeast, starches, etc. 

3/ Includes beverages; excludes fresh fruits and vegetables, and nursery/greenhouse crops.

Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry.

Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 51

Livestock 

Projections for the livestock sector reflect production adjustments in response to sharply higher 

grain prices due to the expansion of corn-based ethanol production. Returns to U.S. meat and 

poultry production fall from those in recent years, slowing increases in or reducing production of 

all meats over the next several years. Once the sector adjusts, lower overall production combined 

with strong domestic demand and some strengthening in meat exports result in higher prices and 

higher returns, providing economic incentives for expansion in the sector and a resumption in meat 

production gains. 

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Livestock inventories and broiler production

Cattle and hogs, million head

Cattle

Hogs

Broilers

Broilers, billion pounds

Production of all meats slows or declines in the first half of the projection period, reflecting higher 

feed costs as more corn is used in ethanol production. Distillers grains, a coproduct of ethanol 

production, can be used in livestock rations, substituting for corn and sometimes for soybean meal 

(see box, page 52). 

• Higher grain prices in tandem with drought impacts in 2006 hold down cattle inventories, 

pushing U.S. beef production down in 2009-11. Production then rises in the remainder of 

the projection period as returns improve. The cattle inventory remains in a range of 97-99 

million head through 2011, and then expands to over 102 million by 2016. Rising 

slaughter weights augment this herd expansion, leading to annual beef production gains of 

1 percent or more starting in 2013. Higher costs of feedlot gain will result in stocker cattle 

remaining on pasture to heavier weights before entering feedlots. 

• Pork production declines in 2008-10 in response to higher feed prices and then grows for 

several years as higher hog prices improve returns. Expansion slows again at the end of the 

projections as returns narrow. Production coordination and market integration between the 

United States and Canada continue in the hog sector. Canada is the major supplier of live 

swine imported by the United States. Imported feeder pigs from Canada are finished and 

processed in the United States, where both finishing and processing costs are lower. 

• Poultry production continues to rise, but less rapidly than during the 1990s due to the 

maturity of domestic demand, slower export growth, and adjustment to higher feed costs. 
52 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Livestock Sector Use of Distillers Grains, a Coproduct of Ethanol Production 

With the expansion of the U.S. ethanol industry and higher prices for corn, a reduced share of the corn 

crop is used directly for domestic livestock feeding. However, a coproduct of ethanol production, 

distillers grains, may substitute for corn in some livestock rations, particularly for beef and dairy cattle. 

Cattle feedlots located close to an ethanol plant will benefit from a steady supply of distillers grains. 

Meanwhile, distillers grains are less suitable in poultry and hog rations. The divergent effects of ethanol 

expansion on the different categories of livestock and in different regions of the country could result in 

structural changes in some parts of the U.S. livestock sector. For each 56-pound bushel of corn used in 

the production of ethanol, about 17.5 pounds of dried distillers grains are produced. (See box, page 22, 

for additional discussion of domestic biofuel issues.) 

The use of distillers grains in livestock feeding and their overall substitution for direct corn feed use in 

the projections reflect a number of important underlying assumptions. 

• The projections assume that 75 percent of distillers grains is used in domestic livestock sector 

feeding. Exports of distillers grains are assumed to account for 10 percent of production. The 

remaining 15 percent of production is assumed to go to other nonfeed, domestic uses. 

• Of the portion of distillers grains used for domestic livestock feeding, 80 percent is assumed to be 

used for beef cattle, 10 percent for dairy, and 5 percent each for poultry and hogs. These 

assumptions reflect the relatively easier use of distillers grains by ruminants compared to 

monogastric animals. The high usage by beef cattle also reflects the ability of those animals to use 

the wet form of distillers grains. 

• Based on the animal nutrition studies listed below, distillers grains on a dry matter basis are assumed 

to replace corn in rations of beef cattle pound for pound; dairy rations, 1 pound distillers grains for 

0.45 pound corn; hog rations, 1 pound distillers grains for 0.85 pound corn; and poultry rations, 

1 pound distillers grains for 0.55 pound corn. For each animal type, other ration components are 

adjusted to rebalance the ration. Protein adjustments affect soybean meal feeding for hogs, poultry, 

and dairy cattle. Most distillers grains used for cattle feeding displace urea as the protein source 

rather than soybean meal. 

Using these assumptions, each bushel of corn used to produce ethanol results in a reduction of about 

a fifth of a bushel of direct corn feeding due to the use of distillers grains in rations. Since beef cattle are 

assumed to be the largest users of distillers grains, only a small offset is expected in soybean meal use. 

References 

Anderson, J. L., D. J. Schingoethe, K. F. Kalscheur, and A. R. Hippen. “Evaluation of dried and wet 

distillers grains included at two concentrations in the diets of lactating dairy cows,” Journal of Dairy 

Science, 2006, Volume 89, pp. 3133-42. 

Lumpkins, B. S., A. B. Batal, and N. M. Dale. “Evaluation of Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles as a 

Feed Ingredient for Broilers,” Poultry Science, 2004, Volume 83, pp. 1891-96. 

Shurson, Jerry, Mindy Spiehs, Jennifer Wilson, and Mark Whitney. “Value and use of ‘new generation’ 

distiller’s dried grains with solubles in swine diets,” Alltech’s 19th International Feed Industry 

Symposium Proceedings, May 2003. 

Vander Pol, Kyle J., Galen E. Erickson, Terry J. Klopfenstein, Matt A. Greenquist, and Thomas Robb. 

“Effect of Dietary Inclusion of Wet Distillers Grains on Feedlot Performance of Finishing Cattle and 

Energy Value Relative to Corn,” 2006 Nebraska Beef Cattle Report, pp. 51-53. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 53

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per capita meat consumption

Retail weight, pounds per capita

Beef

Broilers

Pork

Annual per capita consumption of red meats and poultry falls from 223 pounds in 2007 to a low of 

213 pounds in 2012, reflecting livestock sector production adjustments to higher feed costs due to 

increased ethanol production as well as gains in meat and poultry exports. Per capita consumption 

of red meats and poultry then resumes growth but, at about 219 pounds in 2016, remains lower 

than in recent years. 

• Per capita beef consumption declines through the first half of the projection period 

reflecting lower production due to drought in 2006 and adjustments in the industry to 

higher feed costs and reduced returns. Use of distillers grains in cattle rations and 

reductions in corn prices later in the projections lead to production gains and increases in 

per capita beef consumption in 2013-16. 

• Although U.S. beef exports do not return to the levels reached prior to the December 2003 

discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Washington State, a gradual 

rebuilding of U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea is assumed in the projections, 

further limiting domestic per capita beef consumption. 

• Strong demand for consistent, high-quality beef continues in the domestic hotel and 

restaurant market, and increasingly in the retail market. Beef export markets are also 

primarily for high-quality beef. An important development will be how beef quality is 

affected by the increased use of distillers grains in beef cattle rations. 

• Higher feed costs lead to reductions in pork production which combine with rising pork 

exports to push per capita pork consumption down through 2011. A gradual rebound in per 

capita pork consumption occurs over the remainder of the projection period. 

• Poultry prices remain lower than red meat prices. However, as returns are squeezed, 

production gains slow and per capita consumption declines for several years. Following 

these adjustments, production strengthens and per capita poultry consumption resumes 

growth later in the projections. 
54 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nominal livestock prices

Dollars per hundredweight

Beef cattle: Choice steers, Nebraska

Broilers: 12-city 

market price

Hogs: National base

Livestock prices are projected to move to higher levels following near-term production 

adjustments in the sector in response to higher feed costs. As production rebounds later in the 

projections, prices decline somewhat although they remain historically high. 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Poultry

 Pork

 Beef

Percent of U.S. income spent on meat

Percent

Rising incomes facilitate gains in consumer spending on meat. Nonetheless, overall meat 

expenditures represent a declining proportion of disposable income, continuing a long-term trend. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 55

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Beef

Pork

Poultry

U.S. meat exports

Billion pounds

Although the domestic market remains the dominant source of overall meat demand, exports account for a 

growing share U.S. meat use. Despite higher prices, U.S. meat exports rise throughout the projections as 

global economic growth supports increases in demand. 

Beef

• U.S. beef exports primarily reflect demand for high-quality fed beef, with most U.S. beef exports typically 

going to Mexico, Canada, and markets in Pacific Rim nations. U.S. beef exports are projected to rise slowly 

as a gradual recovery is assumed in the Japanese and South Korean export markets lost following the first 

U.S. BSE case in December 2003. 

• U.S. imports of processing beef from Australia and New Zealand increase in the projections. With 

more of demand in the East Asian market being met by U.S. beef exports, exports to that market from 

Australia and New Zealand are reduced, resulting in more of their product being shipped to the United 

States. The United States is a net beef importer by volume throughout the projection period as the 

recovery of high-quality fed beef exports does not reach levels of 2000-03. 

Pork 

• U.S. pork exports continue to benefit from lower levels of beef exports as import demand shifts among 

competing meats. Pacific Rim nations and Mexico remain key markets for long-term growth of U.S. 

pork exports. Canada continues to be a competitor in these markets. Brazil also is a major pork exporter. 

However, the projections assume that Brazil will not be recognized as free of foot-and-mouth disease 

(FMD) nationwide, thus limiting Brazilian pork producers’ ability to compete in some markets. 

Consequently, Brazil’s pork exports expand to markets with less stringent import restrictions regarding 

FMD, including Russia, Argentina, and Asian markets other than Japan and South Korea. 

• Despite higher feed costs, increased efficiency in U.S. pork production limits production-cost increases 

and enhances the competitiveness of U.S. pork products. Nonetheless, longer term gains in U.S. pork 

exports will be determined by costs of production and environmental regulations relative to 

competitors. Such costs tend to be lower in countries with pork industries in the early stages of 

development and integration, such as Brazil. 

Poultry 

• U.S. broiler export growth is expected to slow from the rate of the 1990s. Major U.S. export markets 

include Asia, Russia, and Mexico. Gains in these markets reflect strong economic growth and rising 

consumer demand for meats. Demand for poultry also remains strong due to its lower cost relative to beef 

and pork. U.S. producers will face strong competition from other major broiler exporting countries, 

particularly Brazil. Poultry exports from countries affected by avian influenza, such as Thailand and 

China, are expected to be limited to fully cooked products. 
56 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

50

100

150

200

Milk production and dairy herd

Million cows and 1,000 pounds per cow

Milk production

Milk cows

Output per cow

Production, billion pounds

Relatively high farm milk prices in 2004-05 encouraged increases in milk cow numbers in 

2005-06. Combined with an upward trend in output per cow, this resulted in relatively strong 

gains in milk production in 2005-06 and reductions in milk prices. Smaller production gains are 

projected over the rest of the projection period, particularly in the next several years as the sector 

adjusts to higher feed costs. 

• Milk output per cow is projected to increase, although some slowing in these gains occurs 

early in the projection period in response to higher feed costs. Nonetheless, further 

development of large, specialized operations in most regions will contribute to a 

continuation of gains in output per cow. 

• Milk cow numbers are expected to decline after 2006, with the largest reductions in 2008-

10 as feed costs rise. Longer term reductions are smaller as increasing specialization of 

dairy farms over time slows exit rates from milk production compared with past decades. 

• Commercial use increases slightly faster than the growth in population, reflecting slow 

growth in domestic demand for dairy products. Cheese and butter demand benefit from 

greater consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. Per capita 

consumption of fluid milk, however, is expected to continue to decline slowly. 

• Farm-level milk prices increase after 2006 as milk production gains are smaller than those 

in 2005-06. Price increases are largest through 2011 as the sector adjusts to higher feed 

costs. Milk price increases are then projected to be less than the general inflation rate 

through the rest of the projections. 

Note: Milk price projections do not reflect interim changes to the manufacturing allowance 

announced December 29, 2006. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 57

Table 21. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight

Item 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pounds

 Total beef 65.3 65.5 66.5 65.8 64.4 62.8 62.0 61.6 61.6 62.3 62.9 63.2

 Total veal 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

 Total pork 50.0 49.5 50.9 49.1 48.0 47.3 47.0 47.1 47.4 47.9 48.4 48.7

 Lamb and mutton 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

 Total red meat 117.0 116.5 119.0 116.5 114.1 111.7 110.5 110.2 110.5 111.6 112.7 113.3

 Broilers 85.7 86.9 86.4 86.9 86.6 86.0 85.4 85.4 85.8 86.7 87.3 87.8

 Other chicken 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

 Turkeys 16.7 16.8 16.7 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5

 Total poultry 103.7 105.0 104.5 105.2 104.7 104.0 103.2 103.2 103.6 104.5 105.1 105.7

Red meat & poultry 220.7 221.5 223.4 221.8 218.8 215.7 213.8 213.3 214.1 216.1 217.8 218.9

Table 22. Consumer expenditures for meats

Item 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Beef, dollars per person 267.18 260.63 263.25 269.09 276.59 280.46 284.71 285.66 285.94 289.05 292.24 295.30

 Percent of income 0.87 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58

 Percent of meat expenditures 46.40 47.02 47.28 47.03 46.71 46.12 45.78 45.36 45.06 45.12 45.13 45.02

 Pork, dollars per person 141.49 139.02 140.46 142.29 144.84 147.68 149.78 152.72 155.08 156.65 158.49 160.65

 Percent of income 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32

 Percent of meat expenditures 24.57 25.08 25.22 24.87 24.46 24.29 24.08 24.25 24.44 24.45 24.48 24.49

 Broilers, dollars per person 149.24 135.68 134.85 142.36 152.08 160.91 168.30 172.32 174.67 176.52 178.81 182.27

 Percent of income 0.48 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.36

 Percent of meat expenditures 25.92 24.48 24.22 24.88 25.68 26.46 27.06 27.36 27.53 27.56 27.61 27.79

 Turkeys, dollars per person 17.89 18.92 18.27 18.43 18.65 18.99 19.12 19.07 18.84 18.39 17.98 17.69

 Percent of income 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03

 Percent of meat expenditures 3.11 3.41 3.28 3.22 3.15 3.12 3.07 3.03 2.97 2.87 2.78 2.70

 Total meat, dollars per person 575.80 554.25 556.82 572.17 592.16 608.05 621.91 629.77 634.53 640.61 647.53 655.91

 Percent of income 1.86 1.71 1.63 1.61 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.48 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.29
58 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 23. Beef long-term projections

Item Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 637 571 625 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 24,683 25,970 26,700 26,744 26,449 26,036 25,948 26,068 26,365 26,977 27,547 28,031 

 Change from previous year Percent 0.5 5.2 2.8 0.2 -1.1 -1.6 -0.3 0.5 1.1 2.3 2.1 1.8

 Farm production Mil. lbs. 101 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 

 Total production Mil. lbs. 24,784 26,072 26,802 26,846 26,551 26,138 26,050 26,170 26,467 27,079 27,649 28,133 

 Imports Mil. lbs. 3,599 3,152 3,360 3,366 3,389 3,413 3,437 3,462 3,486 3,512 3,538 3,564 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 29,020 29,795 30,787 30,812 30,540 30,151 30,087 30,232 30,553 31,191 31,787 32,297 

 Exports Mil. lbs. 697 1,164 1,500 1,556 1,633 1,711 1,789 1,865 1,942 2,040 2,124 2,258 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 571 625 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

 Total consumption Mil. lbs. 27,752 28,006 28,687 28,656 28,307 27,840 27,698 27,767 28,011 28,551 29,063 29,439 

 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 93.3 93.5 95.0 94.0 92.1 89.8 88.6 88.0 88.0 89.0 89.8 90.2

 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 65.3 65.5 66.5 65.8 64.4 62.8 62.0 61.6 61.6 62.3 62.9 63.2

 Change from previous year Percent -1.2 0.2 1.5 -1.0 -2.1 -2.5 -1.4 -0.6 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.5

Prices:

 Beef cattle, farm $/cwt 89.55 88.25 87.75 88.98 94.98 98.33 99.77 98.55 97.07 95.59 94.27 93.38

 Calves, farm $/cwt 135.42 132.73 126.79 122.44 123.56 128.16 134.55 134.93 132.15 129.34 126.81 124.72

 Choice steers, Nebraska $/cwt 87.28 85.76 85.25 86.44 92.28 95.53 96.93 95.75 94.31 92.87 91.59 90.73

 Deflated price $/cwt 44.99 43.08 41.78 41.33 43.05 43.48 43.04 41.48 39.86 38.29 36.84 35.60

 Yearling steers, Okla. City $/cwt 110.94 107.26 102.25 98.74 99.64 103.36 108.51 108.82 106.57 104.30 102.27 100.58

 Deflated price $/cwt 57.18 53.88 50.11 47.21 46.48 47.04 48.18 47.14 45.04 43.01 41.14 39.47

 Retail: Beef and veal 1982-84=100 200.4 202.1 201.0 207.5 217.8 226.5 233.1 235.4 235.5 235.6 235.9 237.3

 Retail: Other meats 1982-84=100 177.5 180.7 177.0 181.5 185.6 189.6 192.9 196.1 198.9 201.2 203.6 206.4

 ERS retail beef $/lb. 4.09 3.98 3.96 4.09 4.29 4.46 4.59 4.64 4.64 4.64 4.65 4.68

Costs and returns, cow-calf enterprise:

 Variable expenses $/cow 237.03 247.76 261.99 271.97 277.63 283.71 283.15 285.90 288.80 291.91 295.02 295.27

 Fixed expenses $/cow 127.04 130.49 135.54 139.89 142.63 145.03 147.28 149.48 151.65 153.95 156.21 158.54

 Total cash expenses $/cow 364.07 378.25 397.53 411.87 420.26 428.74 430.44 435.38 440.45 445.86 451.23 453.81

 Returns above cash costs $/cow 174.62 148.23 141.12 117.34 123.66 144.15 179.17 184.96 176.58 167.46 159.52 156.37

Cattle inventory 1,000 head 95,438 97,102 98,400 98,600 98,308 97,976 97,796 98,066 99,282 100,643 101,771 102,601

Beef cow inventory 1,000 head 32,915 33,253 33,406 33,404 33,400 33,269 33,272 33,583 34,336 35,124 35,774 36,284

Total cow inventory 1,000 head 41,920 42,311 42,400 42,053 41,962 41,749 41,689 41,942 42,642 43,386 43,998 44,455
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 59

Table 24. Pork long-term projections

Item Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 543 494 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 

 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 20,685 21,069 21,850 21,400 21,183 21,086 21,151 21,372 21,699 22,090 22,515 22,848 

 Change from previous year Percent 0.9 1.9 3.7 -2.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.5

 Farm production Mil. lbs. 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 

 Total production Mil. lbs. 20,706 21,089 21,870 21,420 21,203 21,106 21,171 21,392 21,719 22,110 22,535 22,868 

 Imports Mil. lbs. 1,025 1,021 1,030 1,043 1,059 1,077 1,099 1,121 1,143 1,166 1,189 1,213 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 22,274 22,604 23,450 23,013 22,812 22,733 22,820 23,063 23,412 23,826 24,274 24,631 

 Exports Mil. lbs. 2,665 2,968 3,090 3,183 3,230 3,279 3,328 3,378 3,429 3,480 3,532 3,585 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 494 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

 Total consumption Mil. lbs. 19,115 19,086 19,810 19,280 19,032 18,904 18,942 19,135 19,433 19,796 20,192 20,496 

 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 64.4 63.8 65.6 63.3 61.9 61.0 60.6 60.7 61.1 61.7 62.4 62.8

 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 50.0 49.5 50.9 49.1 48.0 47.3 47.0 47.1 47.4 47.9 48.4 48.7

 Change from previous year Percent -2.6 -1.0 2.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.5 -0.7 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7

Prices:

 Hogs, farm $/cwt 49.62 46.32 40.96 47.44 50.44 53.12 54.58 55.44 55.39 54.63 53.82 53.70

 National base, live equivalent $/cwt 50.05 47.23 41.76 48.47 51.63 54.38 55.87 56.76 56.71 55.93 55.10 54.98

 Deflated price $/cwt 25.51 23.68 21.46 22.76 23.65 24.30 24.36 24.15 23.54 22.65 21.77 21.19

 Retail: pork 1982-84=100 177.7 177.3 174.0 182.7 190.1 196.8 200.9 204.6 206.3 206.3 206.4 207.8

 ERS retail pork $/lb. 2.83 2.81 2.76 2.90 3.02 3.12 3.19 3.24 3.27 3.27 3.27 3.30

Costs and returns, farrow to finish:

 Variable expenses $/cwt 33.57 33.53 39.87 44.19 44.37 45.92 44.69 44.71 44.78 44.90 45.01 45.39

 Fixed expenses $/cwt 7.60 7.72 7.81 7.86 7.89 7.93 7.96 8.01 8.05 8.10 8.16 8.19

 Total cash expenses $/cwt 41.16 41.25 47.68 52.04 52.25 53.84 52.65 52.72 52.83 53.01 53.17 53.58

 Returns above cash costs $/cwt 8.84 6.80 -3.04 -3.51 -0.42 0.75 3.44 4.27 4.11 3.14 2.14 0.87

Hog inventory, 

 Dec. 1, previous year 1,000 head 60,975 61,449 62,500 61,800 61,209 60,945 61,123 61,723 62,612 63,674 64,829 65,736

Table 25. Young chicken long-term projections

Item Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 713 924 725 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770

 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 35,365 35,846 36,325 36,691 36,928 37,058 37,205 37,537 38,064 38,739 39,354 39,921 

 Change from previous year Percent 3.8 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4

 Production Mil. lbs. 34,986 35,462 35,936 36,324 36,559 36,687 36,833 37,162 37,683 38,352 38,960 39,522 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 35,733 36,427 36,697 37,130 37,365 37,493 37,639 37,968 38,489 39,158 39,766 40,328 

 Change from previous year Percent 4.1 1.9 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4

 Exports Mil. lbs. 5,203 5,411 5,530 5,516 5,583 5,664 5,762 5,842 5,932 6,017 6,106 6,196 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 924 725 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 

 Consumption Mil. lbs. 29,606 30,291 30,397 30,844 31,012 31,059 31,107 31,356 31,787 32,371 32,890 33,362 

 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 99.8 101.2 100.6 101.2 100.9 100.2 99.4 99.4 99.9 100.9 101.6 102.2 

 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 85.7 86.9 86.4 86.9 86.6 86.0 85.4 85.4 85.8 86.7 87.3 87.8

 Change from previous year Percent 1.7 1.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6

Prices:

 Broilers, farm Cents/lb. 43.3 38.6 39.4 40.6 42.8 45.0 46.8 47.6 47.6 47.3 47.1 47.3

 12-city market price Cents/lb. 70.8 63.9 65.3 67.3 71.0 74.6 77.6 78.9 78.8 78.2 78.0 78.3

 Deflated wholesale price Cents/lb. 36.8 32.1 32.0 32.2 33.1 34.0 34.5 34.2 33.3 32.3 31.4 30.7

 Change from previous year Percent -6.2 -12.6 -0.3 0.5 2.9 2.5 1.5 -0.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.1

 Composite retail broiler price Cents/lb. 174.1 156.1 156.0 163.8 175.5 187.0 197.0 201.8 203.5 203.7 204.8 207.5

Costs and returns:

 Total costs Cents/lb. 66.75 66.41 68.78 71.71 72.44 74.17 73.73 74.18 74.67 75.23 75.80 76.61

 Net returns Cents/lb. 4.05 -2.48 -3.43 -4.37 -1.44 0.45 3.88 4.68 4.15 3.01 2.19 1.68
60 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 26. Turkey long-term projections

Item Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 288 206 225 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280

 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 5,504 5,668 5,760 5,799 5,783 5,791 5,809 5,852 5,906 5,960 6,014 6,072 

 Change from previous year Percent 0.9 3.0 1.6 0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

 Production Mil. lbs. 5,432 5,594 5,685 5,724 5,708 5,716 5,734 5,776 5,830 5,882 5,935 5,993 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 5,720 5,800 5,910 6,004 5,988 5,996 6,014 6,056 6,110 6,162 6,215 6,273 

 Change from previous year Percent -0.3 1.4 1.9 1.6 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

 Exports Mil. lbs. 570 544 585 543 549 557 567 575 584 592 601 610 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 206 225 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 

 Consumption Mil. lbs. 4952 5,040 5,049 5,185 5,163 5,163 5,171 5,205 5,250 5,294 5,339 5,387 

 Per capita Pounds 16.7 16.8 16.7 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5

 Change from previous year Percent -2.1 0.9 -0.7 1.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Prices:

 Turkey, farm Cents/lb. 44.8 48.6 45.4 45.0 46.5 49.3 51.4 52.8 53.6 53.5 53.6 54.0 

 Hen turkey (whsle.) East Cents/lb. 73.4 78.0 73.0 72.4 74.7 79.2 82.7 84.9 86.1 86.1 86.2 86.9 

 Deflated hen turkey Cents/lb. 37.8 39.2 35.8 34.6 34.9 36.1 36.7 36.8 36.4 35.5 34.7 34.1 

 Retail frozen turkey Cents/lb. 107.2 112.4 109.3 108.3 111.1 114.1 115.7 115.6 114.2 111.4 109.0 107.2 

 Retail: poultry 1982-84=100 185.3 182.0 184.0 191.0 202.9 214.7 224.4 228.8 229.8 228.8 228.8 230.5 

Costs and returns:

 Total costs Cents/lb. 68.80 62.55 66.97 70.15 71.56 72.91 72.13 72.43 72.72 73.06 73.36 73.90

 Net returns Cents/lb. 4.60 15.44 6.04 2.25 3.18 6.31 10.58 12.51 13.39 12.99 12.83 12.99

Table 27. Egg long-term projections

Item Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Beginning stocks Mil. doz. 14 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 

Production Mil. doz. 7,5 7,57 04 7, 2 7,7 682 7,7 20 7,775 36 7, 7, 829 7, 899 978 8,066 8,155 8,245

 Change from previous year Percent 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Imports Mil. doz. 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 

 Total supply Mil. doz. 7,527 7,596 7,707 7,746 7,761 7,800 7,854 7,925 8,004 8,092 8,180 8,270 

 Change from previous year Percent 0.8 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Hatching use Mil. doz. 1,000 995 990 998 1,003 1,007 1,009 1,015 1,024 1,036 1,048 1,060 

 Exports Mil. doz. 203 187 195 198 201 204 207 210 213 216 219 222

 Ending stocks Mil. doz. 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 

 Consumption Mil. doz. 6,308 6,397 6,506 6,534 6,541 6,573 6,622 6,684 6,751 6,824 6,897 6,973 

 Per capita Number 255.1 256.4 258.4 257.3 255.3 254.4 254.0 254.2 254.6 255.2 255.8 256.4

 Change from previous year Percent -0.8 0.5 0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

Prices:

 Eggs, farm Cents/doz. 54.5 57.2 65.6 73.1 79.8 84.0 85.7 86.5 87.4 88.2 89.0 89.9

 New York, Grade A large Cents/doz. 65.5 69.0 78.0 87.0 95.0 100.0 102.0 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.0 107.0

 Deflated wholesale prices Cents/doz. 33.8 34.7 38.2 41.6 44.3 45.5 45.3 44.6 44.0 43.3 42.6 42.0

 Retail, Grade A, large Cents/doz. 122 130 139 156 171 180 184 185 187 189 191 193

 Retail: Eggs 1982-84=100 144.1 151.2 162.0 182.5 201.4 213.0 218.3 221.4 224.5 227.7 230.9 234.0

Costs and returns:

 Total costs Cents/doz. 71.91 71.84 85.41 94.66 97.19 99.97 97.35 97.40 97.54 97.81 98.04 98.85

 Net returns Cents/doz. -6.41 -2.84 -7.41 -7.66 -2.19 0.03 4.65 5.60 6.46 7.19 7.96 8.15
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 61

Table 28. Dairy long-term projections

Item Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Production data:

 Number of cows 1,000 9,041 9,110 9,045 8,950 8,860 8,775 8,710 8,650 8,595 8,550 8,510 8,465 

 Milk per cow Pounds 19,577 19,955 20,235 20,545 20,750 21,030 21,340 21,730 22,010 22,355 22,705 23,120 

 Milk production Bil. lbs. 177.0 181.9 183.0 183.9 183.8 184.5 185.9 188.0 189.2 191.1 193.2 195.7 

 Farm use Bil. lbs. 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 

Commercial use, milk equivalent:

 Milkfat basis Bil. lbs. 179.7 184.3 188.6 189.0 188.8 189.8 191.2 193.4 194.8 196.8 199.1 201.7

 Skim solids basis Bil. lbs. 180.6 184.8 188.2 188.6 188.6 189.3 190.6 192.8 194.2 196.2 198.4 201.0

Net removals, milk equivalent:

 Milkfat basis Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Skim solids basis Bil. lbs. -1.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Prices:

 All milk $/cwt 15.14 12.85 13.85 14.80 15.45 16.00 16.35 16.60 16.65 16.80 16.80 16.90

 Retail, all dairy products 1982-84=100 182.4 181.4 185.5 191.5 196.5 201.0 205.0 206.0 206.0 206.5 206.5 207.0
62 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators 

Farm Income, Food Prices and Expenditures, and U.S. Trade Value 

Large increases in corn-based ethanol production affect production, use, and prices of farm 

commodities throughout the sector. Steady domestic and international economic growth supports 

gains in consumption, trade, and prices. These factors combine to result in higher market prices 

and cash receipts. Rising production expenses and lower government payments offset some of the 

gains in cash receipts and other sources of farm income, although net farm income remains strong 

through the projections. U.S. agricultural export values rise through the projections. On average, 

consumer food prices are projected to rise more slowly than the general rate of inflation over the 

next decade, although increases in meat prices push food prices up faster in some years. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Net farm income

Billion dollars

Strong domestic use and export demand push U.S. net farm income from its 2006 level of 

$60.6 billion to an average of $66.7 billion annually over the next 10 years. 

 

• Large increases in cash receipts over the next several years mostly result from expansion of 

corn-based ethanol production. Lower government payments, due to higher commodity 

prices, and rising farm production expenses offset gains in cash receipts in the later years of 

the projections, resulting in some reduction in net farm income after 2010. Nonetheless, 

net incomes remain historically high in the mid- to upper-$60 billion range, well above the 

average in the 1990s of about $48 billion. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 63

0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Direct government payments

Total direct 

government payments

Billion dollars

Direct government payments to farmers are projected to fall from $16 billion in 2006 to an average 

of less than $12 billion annually over the projection period, largely due to higher commodity prices 

and correspondingly lower price-dependent program benefits. 

 

• To account for the possibility of both higher and lower prices than the deterministic (point 

estimate) prices, a stochastic estimation process is used to project expected direct 

government payments. This process captures potential variation in farm program benefits 

due to stochastic (random) shocks to yields. 

• Strong demand for corn for ethanol production results in projected market prices for corn 

and other crops rising to levels that lower government payments significantly. For 

example, even with stochastic considerations, payments for price-sensitive marketing loan 

benefits and counter-cyclical payments for feed grains are minimal, totaling less than $200 

million over calendar years 2007-16 for the projections scenario in this report. In contrast, 

with higher crop prices, use of land for production is more valuable, so rental rates for land 

in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) rise and push overall annual CRP payments to 

more than $3 billion toward the end of the projections. As a result, fixed direct payments 

under the 2002 Farm Act and conservation payments account for a larger share of total 

direct government payments. 

• With lower government payments, the agriculture sector relies on the market for more of its 

income and the share of income provided by government payments falls. Government 

payments, which represented more than 8 percent of gross cash income in 2005, account 

for less than 4 percent during most of the projection period. Conversely, cash receipts plus 

farm-related income rises to over 96 percent of gross cash income. 
64 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Other 

Manufactured

Farm-origin

Farm production expenses

Billion dollars

Total production expenses increase at near the general inflation rate from 2007-16. These 

expenses are divided into three categories in the chart above: farm-origin (seed, feed, and feeder 

livestock), manufactured (fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, and electricity), and other (labor, interest, net 

rent to nonoperator landlords, and other expenses). 

• The largest percentage increase is for “other” expenses, reflecting increases in labor 

expenses and interest costs. Labor expenses rise as sector output increases and wage rates 

rise. Projected increases in interest costs reflect higher interest rates, as well as increased 

debt facilitated by higher income. Increases for net rent and other operating expenses 

reflect higher cash receipts and profitability as well as larger acreage and sector output. 

 

• Projected manufactured-input expenses reflect high oil prices and larger crop production. 

After increases in 2004-06 that were mostly due to the rising oil prices, these expenses 

increase at about the general rate of inflation through the rest of the projections. 

• Farm-origin expenses rise less than the general inflation rate. Feed expenses rise the most 

as demand for corn for use in the production of ethanol competes with feed demand and 

pushes corn prices higher. 

• Cash operating margins tighten over the projections period as expenses rise while decreases 

in government payments slow gains in gross cash incomes. By 2016, cash expenses 

represent about 80 percent of gross cash income, compared with an average of 73 percent 

in 2000-05. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 65

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Farmland value

Dollars per acre

Strong and stable net farm income assists in asset accumulation and debt management. 

• Gains in farmland values and real estate assets (representing about 80 percent of total farm 

assets) reflect increases in agricultural revenues, particularly in the first several years of the 

projections. Additionally, as the general economy continues to expand, demand for land 

for nonagricultural uses, such as housing and recreation, contributes to rising farmland 

values. 

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Debt-to-asset ratios

Percent 

• Higher incomes facilitate increases in farm debt in the projections. Nonetheless, debt 

moves up less rapidly than farm asset values, resulting in gains in overall farm sector 

equity. The debt-to-asset ratio declines moderately from 11.8 percent in 2006 to about 

11.3 percent at the end of the projections, continuing a decline from over 20 percent in the 

mid-1980s. 
66 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

2

4

6

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Food inflation

Percent change

Consumer Price Index (CPI), all items

CPI, Food 

On average over the next 10 years, retail food prices are projected to increase less than the general 

inflation rate, although food price increases are somewhat larger than general inflation in some years. 

• Consumer prices for red meats, poultry, and eggs exceed the general inflation rate in 

2008-10 as the livestock sector adjusts to higher feed costs due to the expansion in 

corn-based ethanol production. As a result, overall retail food prices rise faster than the 

general inflation rate in those years. 

• Among foods purchased for consumption at home, projected price increases are generally 

strongest for more highly processed foods such as cereals and bakery products and fats and 

oils. Prices for these foods are related more to processing and marketing costs than to 

farm-level prices and, therefore, rise at a rate near the general inflation rate. 

• Prices for food away from home reflect the overall inflation rate as well as some effect of 

price movements for retail meat and poultry. Competition in the fast-food and food service 

industries tend to moderate price increases for food away from home. 

0

200

400

600

800

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Food expenditures

Food at home

Food away from home

Billion dollars

• Expenditures for meals prepared away from home account for a growing share of food 

spending, reaching about 51 percent of total food expenditures by 2016. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

High value

Bulk

U.S. agricultural export value: Bulk and high value 1/

1/ Bulk commodities include wheat, rice, feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 

High-value products include semi-processed and processed grains and oilseeds, 

animals and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. 

Billion dollars

The value of U.S. agricultural exports rises in the projections due to increases in both export 

volumes and prices. Strong domestic economic growth and consumer demand boost agricultural 

imports. 

 

• Steady world economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation 

for gains in trade and U.S. agricultural exports. However, competition in global markets 

remains strong. Higher commodity prices due to expansion of global biofuel demand also 

contribute to the gains in export values. Overall, the value of U.S. agricultural exports is 

projected to grow from $77 billion in fiscal year 2007 to nearly $95 billion in 2016. 

• The initial increases in bulk commodity prices strengthen bulk export values, pushing the 

share of exports accounted for by high-value products (HVP) down over the next few years. 

In the longer run, HVP export values again grow in importance, representing about 

65 percent of the value of U.S. exports by the end of the projection period. Much of the 

growth in HVP exports is for animal products and horticultural products. Most of the 

growth in the value of bulk commodity exports (grains, oilseeds, cotton, and tobacco) 

reflects expected price increases and gains in volume for grains. 

• U.S. agricultural import values rise to about $93 billion in 2016, boosted by gains in 

consumer income and demand for a large variety of foods. Strong growth in horticultural 

imports is assumed to continue, contributing over half of the overall agricultural import 

increase. 

• Overall, the U.S. agricultural trade surplus rises to over $10 billion in the initial years of the 

projections, largely due to the gains in bulk commodity prices and bulk export values. The 

agricultural trade balance then narrows through the remainder of the projections as bulk 

export growth slows and imports continue steady gains.
68 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 29. Farm receipts, expenses, and incomes in nominal dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Billion dollars

Cash receipts:

 Crops 114.0 121.6 133.5 141.5 145.7 148.1 149.1 150.8 152.7 154.6 156.7 158.8

 Livestock and products 125.0 121.2 125.2 128.9 134.3 137.1 139.6 140.7 141.1 142.1 142.9 144.2

 All commodities 238.9 242.7 258.7 270.4 280.1 285.2 288.7 291.5 293.8 296.7 299.7 303.0

Farm-related income 17.6 18.0 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.9

Government payments 24.3 16.3 12.4 11.2 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 11.5 11.7

Gross cash income 280.9 277.1 289.8 300.8 310.5 316.3 320.5 324.1 327.2 330.9 333.6 337.6

Cash expenses 199.7 210.4 222.6 233.1 239.2 243.9 248.3 252.8 257.4 262.0 266.7 271.1

Net cash income 81.2 66.7 67.2 67.7 71.3 72.4 72.3 71.3 69.8 69.0 66.9 66.6

Value of inventory change 0.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.3

Non-money income 18.5 22.2 23.8 23.4 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.9

Gross farm income 299.8 298.4 318.0 325.9 335.6 342.3 346.9 351.2 355.6 359.9 362.8 366.8

Noncash expenses 18.0 18.9 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.5

Operator dwelling expenses 8.3 8.6 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1

Total production expenses 226.0 237.8 251.3 262.0 268.4 273.3 278.1 283.0 288.0 292.9 297.9 302.7

Net farm income 73.8 60.6 66.6 64.0 67.2 69.0 68.8 68.2 67.6 67.0 64.8 64.1

Farm assets 1,805.3 1,919.4 1,994.3 2,090.8 2,180.8 2,251.2 2,314.7 2,369.8 2,426.0 2,481.5 2,536.8 2,586.7

Farm debt 215.5 226.2 235.3 243.5 252.0 258.9 265.3 270.6 276.1 281.6 287.2 292.0

Farm equity 1,589.8 1,693.2 1,759.0 1,847.3 1,928.9 1,992.4 2,049.3 2,099.1 2,150.0 2,199.9 2,249.6 2,294.7

Percent

Debt/equity ratio 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7

Debt/assets ratio 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3

Table 30. Farm receipts, expenses, and incomes in 1996 dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Billion 1996 dollars 1

Cash receipts:

 Crops 94.9 98.2 105.3 109.1 109.9 109.3 107.6 106.6 105.5 104.6 103.7 102.9

 Livestock and products 104.0 97.9 98.7 99.3 101.4 101.2 100.8 99.4 97.5 96.2 94.6 93.4

 All commodities 198.9 196.0 204.0 208.4 211.3 210.5 208.4 206.0 203.0 200.8 198.3 196.2

Farm-related income 14.7 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9

Government payments 20.3 13.2 9.8 8.7 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 7.6 7.6

Gross cash income 233.9 223.8 228.6 231.8 234.3 233.4 231.4 229.0 226.1 223.9 220.8 218.7

Cash expenses 166.2 169.9 175.6 179.6 180.5 179.9 179.2 178.6 177.9 177.3 176.5 175.6

Net cash income 67.6 53.9 53.0 52.2 53.8 53.4 52.2 50.4 48.2 46.7 44.3 43.1

Value of inventory change 0.3 -0.6 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8

Non-money income 15.4 17.9 18.8 18.0 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.1

Gross farm income 249.6 241.0 250.8 251.1 253.2 252.6 250.4 248.2 245.7 243.5 240.1 237.6

Noncash expenses 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9

Operator dwelling expenses 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6

Total production expenses 188.1 192.1 198.2 201.9 202.5 201.7 200.8 200.0 199.0 198.2 197.2 196.1

Net farm income 61.5 48.9 52.6 49.3 50.7 50.9 49.6 48.2 46.7 45.3 42.9 41.5

Farm assets 1,502.8 1,550.3 1,572.9 1,611.1 1,645.3 1,661.0 1,671.1 1,674.8 1,676.6 1,679.1 1,679.0 1,675.4

Farm debt 179.4 182.7 185.6 187.6 190.1 191.0 191.6 191.3 190.8 190.5 190.1 189.1

Farm equity 1,323.4 1,367.6 1,387.3 1,423.4 1,455.2 1,470.0 1,479.5 1,483.5 1,485.9 1,488.6 1,488.9 1,486.3

1/ Nominal dollar values divided by the GDP chain-type price index.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 69

Table 32. Changes in consumer food prices, long-term projections

CPI category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

All food 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9

 Food away from home 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3

 Food at home 1.9 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5

 Meats 2.3 0.7 -1.2 3.6 4.2 3.6 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8

 Beef and veal 2.6 0.8 -0.5 3.2 5.0 4.0 2.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6

 Pork 2.0 -0.2 -1.9 5.0 4.1 3.5 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.7

 Other meats 2.4 1.8 -2.0 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4

 Poultry 2.0 -1.8 1.1 3.8 6.2 5.8 4.5 2.0 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.7

 Fish and seafood 3.0 4.7 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

 Eggs -13.7 4.9 7.1 12.7 10.4 5.8 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3

 Dairy products 1.2 -0.5 2.3 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2

 Fats and oils -0.1 0.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8

 Fruits and vegetables 3.7 4.8 1.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9

 Sugar and sweets 1.2 3.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

 Cereals and bakery products 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4

 Nonalcoholic beverages 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

 Other foods 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5

Percent

Table 31. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections

CPI category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consumer price indexes:

All food 190.7 195.2 198.9 204.4 210.3 216.0 221.2 225.6 229.5 233.3 237.2 241.6

 Food away from home 193.4 199.4 205.0 210.7 217.0 223.1 228.9 234.4 239.6 244.9 250.3 256.1

 Food at home 189.8 193.1 195.9 201.4 207.1 212.7 217.5 221.3 224.3 227.4 230.4 233.9

 Meats 187.5 188.8 186.6 193.3 201.5 208.7 213.9 216.8 217.9 218.4 219.0 220.7

 Beef and veal 200.4 202.1 201.0 207.5 217.8 226.5 233.1 235.4 235.5 235.6 235.9 237.3

 Pork 177.7 177.3 174.0 182.7 190.1 196.8 200.9 204.6 206.3 206.3 206.4 207.8

 Other meats 177.5 180.7 177.0 181.5 185.6 189.6 192.9 196.1 198.9 201.2 203.6 206.4

 Poultry 185.3 182.0 184.0 191.0 202.9 214.7 224.4 228.8 229.8 228.8 228.8 230.5

 Fish and seafood 200.1 209.5 216.8 223.3 228.9 234.6 240.5 246.5 252.7 259.0 265.5 272.1

 Eggs 144.1 151.2 162.0 182.5 201.4 213.0 218.3 221.4 224.5 227.7 230.9 234.0

 Dairy products 182.4 181.4 185.5 191.5 196.5 201.0 205.0 206.0 206.0 206.5 206.5 207.0

 Fats and oils 167.7 168.0 172.3 177.1 181.6 186.0 190.4 194.0 197.3 200.9 204.3 208.0

 Fruits and vegetables 241.4 252.9 255.5 260.5 265.4 270.5 275.7 281.0 286.4 292.0 297.6 303.4

 Sugar and sweets 165.2 171.5 174.5 177.0 179.5 184.0 188.1 192.1 195.9 199.8 203.7 207.8

 Cereals and bakery products 209.0 212.8 218.7 223.8 228.6 234.0 239.7 245.5 251.3 257.4 263.4 269.6

 Nonalcoholic beverages 144.4 147.4 150.5 153.7 156.9 160.2 163.6 167.0 170.5 174.1 177.8 181.5

 Other foods 182.5 185.0 188.0 191.0 193.8 196.7 199.7 202.8 205.8 209.0 212.1 215.3

Food expenditures: Billion dollars

All food 1,023.2 1,088.1 1,135.9 1,184.1 1,235.9 1,288.9 1,342.9 1,397.6 1,453.5 1,511.4 1,571.8 1,635.5

Food at home 527.0 550.2 572.2 593.4 615.8 638.9 663.0 687.8 713.7 740.5 768.5 797.5

Food away from home 496.2 537.9 563.7 590.7 620.1 650.0 679.9 709.8 739.8 770.9 803.3 838.0

1982-84=100
70 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 33. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Billion dollars

Agricultural exports (value):

 Livestock, poultry, and dairy 12.2 13.4 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.0

 Livestock, poultry, and products 10.5 11.6 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.8

 Dairy products 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

 Grain and feeds 16.0 18.3 22.1 22.9 22.7 23.3 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.2

 Coarse grains 5.3 6.8 9.6 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 11.0

 Oilseeds and products 11.0 10.7 12.4 14.2 12.4 12.5 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8

 Soybeans and products 8.8 8.3 9.9 11.7 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3

 Horticultural products 14.9 16.7 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.2 23.9

 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9

 Fruits and vegetables, processed 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9

 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

 Cotton and linters 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5

 Other exports 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9

Total agricultural exports 62.5 68.7 77.0 81.7 81.3 83.7 85.1 87.2 88.9 90.7 92.5 94.8

 Bulk commodity exports 22.7 24.6 29.7 33.2 31.9 31.4 31.3 31.8 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.5

 High-value product exports 39.9 44.1 47.3 48.5 49.5 52.2 53.8 55.4 56.8 58.2 59.6 61.3

 High-value product share 63.8% 64.3% 61.4% 59.4% 60.8% 62.4% 63.2% 63.5% 63.8% 64.1% 64.4% 64.7%

Million metric tons

Agricultural exports (volume):

Bulk commodity exports 114.3 121.1 124.9 118.8 112.0 108.5 111.2 114.0 116.1 118.4 120.7 122.8

Billion dollars

 Livestock, poultry, and dairy 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8

 Livestock, poultry, and products 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2

 Dairy products 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2

 Grain and feeds 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2

 Grain products 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1

 Oilseeds and products 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9

 Vegetable oils 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6

 Horticultural products 26.9 29.2 31.2 32.4 33.6 34.9 36.2 37.6 39.0 40.5 42.0 43.6

 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 7.7 8.7 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.9

 Fruits and vegetables, processed 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6

 Wine and beer 6.7 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.4

 Sugar and tropical products 11.4 13.6 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.5

 Sugar and related products 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1

 Cocoa, coffee, and products 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.2

 Other imports 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7

Total agricultural imports 57.7 64.0 69.0 71.3 73.9 76.5 79.0 81.6 84.2 86.9 89.7 92.7

Net agricultural trade balance 4.8 4.7 8.0 10.4 7.5 7.2 6.1 5.6 4.7 3.8 2.7 2.1

Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Notes: The projections were completed in November 2006 based on policy decisions and other information known at that time. For updates of the nearby 

year forecasts, see USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, published in March, May, and November. Other exports includes seeds, sugar and 

tropical products, and beverages and preparations. Bulk commodity exports covers wheat, rice, feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. High-value 

product (HVP) exports is calculated as total exports less the bulk commodities. HVP's include semiprocessed and processed grains and oilseeds, animals 

and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. Other imports include cotton, tobacco, and planting seeds. 

Agricultural imports (value):
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 71

Agricultural Trade 

With strong world economic growth and increasing demand for agricultural products, global 

agricultural trade is projected to rise throughout the coming decade. Rapid expansion of ethanol 

and biodiesel production in some countries is projected to have a significant impact on global 

demand for feedstocks, such as corn, vegetable oils, and sugarcane, and on world price 

relationships. As a result, feeds fed primarily for their energy content become relatively more 

expensive than those fed for protein. Producers of pork and poultry are most affected, but users of 

grain for food also face higher prices. The continued expansion of oilseed crushing capacity in a 

number of importing countries is expected to strengthen import demand for total oilseeds, while 

increasing biodiesel production will boost the demand for total vegetable oils. 

The growing economies of developing countries provide a foundation for gains in demand for 

agricultural products and increases in trade. Broad-based economic growth and increasing 

urbanization lead to diet diversification in most developing regions, generating increased demand 

for livestock products and feeds, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and processed products. 

Developing-country import demand is further reinforced by population growth rates that remain 

nearly double the growth rates of developed countries. 

International trade in animal products, however, remains heavily dependent on demand from 

developed countries and from market access achieved under existing trade agreements. Trade is 

also affected by concerns regarding diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), 

avian influenza (AI), and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Strong policy support for domestically 

produced meat is expected to motivate growth in feed grain imports, especially in those regions 

where limited land availability or agroclimatic conditions preclude expanding domestic crop 

production, such as in North Africa, the Middle East, and East and Southeast Asia. 

Traditional exporters of a wide range of agricultural commodities such as Argentina, Australia, 

Canada, and the European Union (EU-25) remain important in the coming decade. But an 

increasing presence in export markets is expected from countries that are making significant 

investments in their agricultural sectors, including Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. 

Trade projections to 2016 are founded on assumptions concerning trends in foreign area, yields, 

and use, and on the assumption that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral 

agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The projections incorporate the effects of 

trade agreements and domestic policy reforms in place or signed by November 2006. 

Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to 

evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s regional and 

commodity analysts. In particular, economic and trade reforms underway in many developing 

countries are assumed to continue. Similarly, the development and use of technology and changes 

in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving based on past performance and 

analysts’ judgments regarding future developments. 

NOTE: The EU-25 expanded to 27 countries with the accession of Romania and Bulgaria on 

January 1, 2007. EU projections in this report pertain to the EU-25. Romania and Bulgaria are 

included in the Other Europe region, although adjustments were made to account for accession. 
72 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Global trade: Wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans and soybean products

Million metric tons

Soybeans and soybean products 1/

Coarse grains

1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units.

Wheat

Global trade in soybeans and soybean products has risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has 

surpassed not only wheat—the traditional leader in agricultural commodity trade—but also total 

coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains). Continued strong 

growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, particularly in China, is expected to 

maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse grains trade throughout 

the next decade. 

• Wheat, coarse grains, and oilseeds (including soybeans) compete with each other and with 

other crops for limited temperate cropland. Higher prices for vegetable oils, partially the 

result of increased demand for biodiesel, are bringing previously uncropped land in tropical 

regions of Brazil and Indonesia into soybean and palm oil production. Biodiesel demand 

also enhances trade in vegetable oils. 

• In the projections, the growth in total area planted to all crops rises less than a half-percent 

a year in most countries. Area expansion occurs more rapidly in countries with a reserve of 

available land and policies that enable farmers to respond to higher projected world prices. 

Such countries include Brazil, Argentina, other South American countries, some Eastern 

European countries, and Ukraine. About two-thirds of the growth in global production is 

derived from rising yields. The growth rate in crop yields has slowed somewhat during the 

last several decades and is projected to continue to do so. 

• Slower growth in aggregate crop production is offset by slower growth in world 

population. Nonetheless, population is a significant factor driving overall growth in 

demand for agricultural products. Additionally, rising per capita income in many countries 

generates growth in demand for vegetable oils, livestock products, and horticultural 

products. 

• Virtually no growth in overall global wheat and coarse grain trade occurred in the 1990s, 

largely reflecting reductions in imports by the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Central and 

Eastern Europe (CEE). In the coming decade, overall gains in global grain trade come 

from a broad range of countries, particularly from countries in Africa and the Middle East. 

Also, China exports less grain and imports more. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 73

Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks 

The increasing demand for feedstocks used in the production of biofuels is expected to have a 

significant impact on agricultural markets over the coming decade. A number of new supply-anddemand factors will be important, but there is uncertainty related to each factor. The USDA 

projections are based on various assumptions about these supply and demand factors. 

The future price of petroleum is one of these key factors (see page 15). Increasing energy costs 

have provided an incentive for many governments to encourage the production of petroleum 

substitutes from renewable agricultural crops. Increases or decreases in petroleum prices in the 

future will affect the commercial viability of petroleum substitutes. 

Major substitution of crop-based fuel for petroleum took place in Brazil in the last several decades, 

as Brazil used sugarcane to produce ethanol and then used ethanol on a large scale to fuel vehicles. 

The EU has used rapeseed oil to produce biodiesel for fuel use in relatively large quantities over 

the last decade. In both instances, government interventions were critical to the development of 

biofuels. 

Currently, many other countries are making new investments in biofuel production capacity. 

Although corn and sugarcane for ethanol and rapeseed oil for biodiesel are the main feedstocks 

envisioned for these investments, other feedstocks are also being used, such as barley, wheat, rye, 

wine, and cassava for ethanol production and a variety of vegetable oils, recycled oils, and fats 

from the food industry for biodiesel. There is considerable interest in ethanol production from 

cellulosic feedstocks, but widespread commercial production during the next decade faces many 

challenges. 

Assumptions Used for the USDA Projections 

Although some production of biofuels has been occurring for a number of years in some countries, 

the industry is currently experiencing explosive growth in many nations. Data on existing 

capacity, plants under construction, and planned additional production facilities are limited for 

most countries. The projections are based on a combination of historical data, USDA 

interpretation of foreign governments’ statements about their plans for biofuel development, and 

other information about potential investments in biofuel production capacity. (See box, page 22, 

for a discussion of biofuels in the United States.) 

During the next 3-4 years, the rapid expansion in biofuels production that is projected for a number 

of countries changes the price relationships among various agricultural commodities. 

• Increased demand for grain (especially corn) used to produce ethanol increases the price of 

corn relative to prices for other grains. Prices for other grains also rise, buoyed by their feed 

value as a replacement for corn, as well as reduced production due to acreage shifts from 

crops competing with corn, such as soybeans. 

--Continued 
74 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks (Continued)

• Prices for vegetable oils also rise in comparison to prices for oilseeds and protein meals as a 

greater share of the value of oilseeds is derived from the oil content relative to the protein 

meal content. Among oilseeds, rapeseed—containing more than 40 percent oil—becomes 

more profitable in some growing areas than soybeans, which have 18 percent oil. 

• Thus, the price of protein feeds (such as soybean meal) declines relative to the price of 

feedstuffs used as a source of energy (such as corn). 

• Prices of poultry, and especially pork, rise relative to the price of beef because cattle can 

more effectively use the increasing supply of distillers grains, produced as a coproduct when 

grain is used to make ethanol. Corn, needed for broilers and swine, becomes more expensive 

while distillers grains, used for cattle, become abundant and relatively less expensive. 

Country Assumptions 

EU-25: The EU has a target that 5.75 percent of total transportation fuel use should come from 

biofuels by 2010. EU policies provide for an area subsidy for biofuel crops, but the EU relies on 

individual member states to offer tax credits on biofuels. The EU Commission has promised to 

present a more forceful directive that will lead to greater production and use of biofuels in the 

future. The projections assume that about two-thirds of the mandate is met by 2010 and that, with 

increasing total fuel use, the mandate is still not quite reached by 2016. The projections further 

assume that biodiesel accounts for two-thirds of total biofuels and the other third is ethanol. 

Rapeseed oil is the feedstock for nearly all EU biodiesel production. In the EU, the area planted to 

rapeseed and the crushing capacity both increase sharply, in part because of EU enlargement. In 

addition, the EU increases rapeseed oil imports from Russia and Ukraine. It also imports more 

palm oil from Southeast Asia, as well as some biodiesel from palm oil processed in Southeast 

Asia. 

Brazil: Sugarcane is the feedstock for most of Brazil’s ethanol production. In southern Brazil, 

some land has already been shifted from grain and oilseeds production to sugarcane. The 

projections assume this trend continues, but at a slower pace. Biodiesel production is assumed to 

increase from about 52 million gallons currently to more than 92 million in 2016. Much of the 

new capacity will be in the soybean production areas in the Central-West region of the country 

which will reduce regular diesel fuel imports that have to be trucked to the interior. 

Canada: Canada has mandated that 5 percent of all motor vehicle fuel be biofuel by 2010, but 

funds for initiatives to encourage biofuel production are limited. Some provinces have production 

goals and reportedly provide some production incentives. Ethanol production capacity is assumed 

to rise from 11 million gallons in 2006/07 to about 211 million gallons by 2010. Feedstocks 

include corn for ethanol plants in Ontario and wheat for a plant in Manitoba. Biodiesel plants are 

being built in western Canada that will use rapeseed oil as a feedstock. In the projections, land is 

shifted to rapeseed from wheat, barley, and some summer fallow. In eastern Canada, at least one 

--Continued 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 75

Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks (Continued)

biodiesel plant is being expanded that uses soybean oil as a feedstock. Canadian biodiesel 

production is projected to rise from 13 million gallons in 2007/08 to 58 million in 2010. 

Argentina: The production of biodiesel is assumed to rise from 7 million gallons in 2005/06 to 

about 59 million over the next several years. Argentina has a system of differential export taxes 

that has lower tax rates for biofuels exports than the tax rate on exports of feedstocks such as corn 

or soybean oil. In turn, the export tax on soybean oil is lower than the tax on soybean exports. For 

biodiesel, this provides an incentive for further investments in Argentina’s already large crushing 

industry. Argentina is projected to import some soybeans from other South American countries to 

keep its crushing facilities running at near full capacity. 

Other Europe and the former Soviet Union: Although no explicit assumptions were made 

about increases in biofuels production in the former Soviet Union or the other countries of non-EU 

Europe, the projections reflect an increase in rapeseed production generated by higher rapeseed 

prices. Much of the production gains are destined for export to the EU. 

China: In 2005/06, approximately 3 million tons of corn were used to produce fuel ethanol. This 

is assumed to grow to 9 million tons by 2016. Because of its food security policy, China is 

assumed to eliminate a government subsidy for producing fuel ethanol from corn and will attempt 

to focus on ethanol production using nongrain feedstocks such as sweet potatoes and cassava. 

Malaysia and Indonesia: Although explicit assumptions were not made about increased 

production of palm oil or its use for biodiesel, higher world prices for palm oil stimulate expansion 

of the area planted to palm oil. Malaysia expects to not only export more palm oil, but also to 

produce biodiesel for the export market. 

Africa: Although some countries are reported to be making initial investments in biofuels 

production capacity, the projections do not account for any uses of agricultural commodities 

beyond those embodied in rising trends in industrial use. 

Other countries: Investments in biofuels production capacity are also being considered in a 

number of other countries. However, since definite plans are not yet known, these potential 

developments have not been included in the projections. 
76 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other 1/

 FSU & OE 2/

 European Union 3/

 China

 Africa & M. East 

 NAFTA

 Latin America

 East Asia

Global wheat imports

Million metric tons

1/ Predominantly South and Southeast Asia. 

2/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

3/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing countries where robust growth in 

income and population underpins increases in demand. Important growth markets include SubSaharan Africa, Brazil, Egypt, and Pakistan. World wheat trade (including flour) expands by 

nearly 27 million tons (23 percent) between 2007 and 2016 to 140 million tons. 

• Egypt maintains its position as the world’s largest importing country, as imports climb 

slowly to nearly 10 million tons. Imports by Brazil, another large importer, are projected to 

approach 9 million tons. Brazil’s climate generally does not favor wheat, and in some key 

wheat-producing states, winter corn is expected to have better returns than wheat. 

• Imports by developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East 

rise 11 million tons and account for 40 percent of the total increase in world wheat trade. 

In most developing countries, little change in per capita wheat consumption is expected but 

imports expand modestly because of population growth and limited potential to expand 

production. 

• Changing consumption patterns will boost wheat imports by some major importing 

countries. In Indonesia, strong economic growth and diversification of diets are projected 

to increase per capita wheat consumption. Mexican consumers are projected to continue 

substituting wheat for corn in their diets. 

• Lower wheat-to-corn price ratios during most of the projection period enable wheat to 

compete effectively with corn for feed use in a number of countries. South Korea is 

projected to substitute 1 million tons of feed wheat for corn annually by 2016. Europe is 

expected to continue to account for the largest share of global wheat feeding. 

• China has been a small net exporter of wheat in recent years, but production constraints 

cause it to become a net importer by 2009/10 and to import nearly 2 million tons annually 

by 2016. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 77

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 FSU & OE 1/ 

 Argentina

 Australia

 Canada

 European Union 2/

 United States

Global wheat exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

2/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

The top five wheat-exporting nations (the United States, Australia, Canada, the EU-25, and 

Argentina) account for 73 percent of world trade in 2007-2016. This is down from a high of 87 

percent in 2000/01, mostly due to increased exports from the Black Sea area. U.S. wheat exports 

are projected to account for 22 percent of global wheat trade, down from 25 percent in the past 5 

years. 

• Shares of the world wheat market held by Canada, the EU, and the United States decline 

slightly, offsetting increases by Australia, Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, and other Europe. 

• In Canada, increased demand for vegetable oils, especially rapeseed oil for biodiesel 

production, and for barley is expected to reduce wheat area, which causes Canadian exports 

to trend slowly downward. 

• The EU set-aside rate, currently 10 percent, is assumed to be lowered during the projections. 

However, most of any increase in planted area will go to rapeseed. 

• Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan have become significant wheat exporters in recent years. 

Low costs of production and new investment in their agricultural sectors have enabled their 

world market share to climb to as high as 18 percent in 2005/06. Exports from Ukraine and 

Russia are projected to continue gaining market share, more than offsetting a slight decline 

in the share held by Kazakhstan. However, because of the region’s weather extremes, high 

year-to-year volatility in production and trade can be expected. Also, continued real 

appreciation of these countries’ currencies, caused mainly by domestic inflation, could 

mitigate the rise in exports. 

• China has been a small net exporter of wheat in recent years, but becomes a net importer of 

nearly 2 million tons annually by 2016. This is offset by other Europe, mostly Romania 

and Bulgaria, which shifts from a small net importer to a net exporter of more than 2 

million tons. Most of these exports go to the EU-25. 

• Exports by Turkey and other smaller exporters change little or trend slowly downward 

during the projection period. Although India has exported some wheat in recent years, 

exports are expected to be minimal as stocks remain relatively tight. 
78 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other 1/

 Sorghum

 Barley

 Corn

Global coarse grain trade, by type

Million metric tons

1/ Rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains.

Growth in coarse grain trade is strongly linked to expansion of livestock production in regions 

unable to meet their own forage and feed needs. Key growth markets include China, Mexico, 

North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are large but mature 

import markets for coarse grains. 

• Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets. Corn accounts for an 

average of 77 percent of all coarse grain trade through the projection period, followed by 

barley (17 percent), and sorghum (4 percent). 

• Commercialization of livestock feeding has been a driving force behind the growing 

dominance of corn in international feed grain markets. Hogs and ruminants, such as cattle 

and sheep, are capable of digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand relatively 

price-sensitive across alternate feed sources. However, as pork and poultry production 

become increasingly commercialized, higher quality feeds are used, boosting the demand 

for corn and soybean meal. 

• World coarse grain trade is projected to increase about 2 percent a year, with corn 

capturing some share of the total market from sorghum. Mexico’s composition of imports 

accounts for most of the shift. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement 

(NAFTA), Mexico’s over-quota tariff on U.S. and Canadian corn ends in 2008. 

Consequently, Mexico’s grain imports shift more to corn rather than sorghum. Also, after 

2007/08, Mexico’s imports of kibbled and cracked corn (processed corn that is tariff free) 

are entirely replaced by whole-grain corn. Mexico’s corn imports continue to rise through 

the rest of the projections, while sorghum imports resume growth after 2010/11. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 79

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 FSU & OE 1/

 China

 Africa & M. East

 Mexico

 Latin America

 East Asia

 European Union 2/

Global coarse grain imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

2/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

World coarse grain trade expands about 21 million tons (21 percent) from 2007 to 2016. About 

two-thirds of global coarse grain production is used as animal feed. Industrial uses, such as starch, 

ethanol, and malt production, are relatively small but growing. Food use of coarse grains, 

concentrated in parts of Latin America, Africa, and Asia, has generally declined over time. 

• Steady longrun growth in the livestock sectors of developing countries in Asia, Latin 

America, North Africa, and the Middle East is projected to account for most of the growth 

in world imports during the next decade. 

• Mexico’s corn imports are projected to rise from 6.7 million tons in 2005/06 to 11 million tons 

in 2016. Imports will be stimulated by rising poultry production and the elimination of 

Mexico’s over-quota tariff on U.S. and Canadian corn on January 1, 2008. Some corn imports 

will substitute for imports of kibbled corn and sorghum, which already have tariff-free status. 

• Canadian corn imports double between 2006 and 2016 due to rising demand for corn for feed 

and for ethanol production and limited capacity to expand production. 

• North Africa and the Middle East experience continued growth in import demand for grain 

and protein meals through 2016, as rising populations and increasing incomes sustain 

strong demand growth for domestically produced animal products. In Egypt, outbreaks of 

avian influenza have shifted government policy towards importing poultry meat rather than 

importing feedstuffs to produce poultry. 

• Increasing meat imports will limit coarse grain imports in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. 

By 2016, relatively low-priced feed wheat is projected to replace about 1 million tons of 

South Korean corn imports. 

• The EU-25’s corn imports from Eastern European countries are expected to increase, 

particularly from Romania and Bulgaria as they have gained duty-free access due to 

accession to the EU. 

• Coarse grain imports by countries in Southeast Asia rise more than a million tons in the 

projections as increased demand for livestock products surpasses their capacity to grow 

more feed grains. 
80 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other 1/ 

 Argentina 

 Other Europe

 China 

 United States

Global corn exports

Million metric tons

1/ Republic of South Africa, Brazil, EU, former Soviet Union, and others.

The United States dominates world trade in coarse grains, particularly corn. However, increasing 

use of corn for U.S. ethanol production and rising world prices are assumed to limit U.S. export 

growth. During the next half decade, some countries respond to higher world prices by increasing 

corn production and exports—most notably Argentina, some countries in Eastern Europe, the 

Republic of South Africa, Ukraine, and Brazil. Still, U.S. corn exports are projected to grow after 

the ramp up in domestic ethanol production slows in 2009. The U.S. share of world corn trade 

stays close to 60 percent as few countries have the capability to respond to rising international 

demand for corn. 

• Argentina, with a small domestic market, remains the world’s second largest corn exporter. 

Argentina’s corn planted area gradually increases in response to higher prices. Corn exports 

rise steadily by more than 60 percent to 21 million tons. Argentina and other South American 

countries increase corn exports to Chile to support its expanding pork exports to South Korea. 

• The Republic of South Africa boosts corn exports slightly to nearly 3 million tons. Some 

exports go to East Asian markets and some shipments of white corn are exported to 

neighboring countries for food use. Uncertainties associated with the land reform program in 

the Republic of South Africa are assumed to limit increases in production. 

• Corn exports from non-EU-25 Eastern European countries, primarily Romania and Bulgaria, 

rise to more than 3 million tons by 2016. Favorable resource endowments, increasing 

economic openness, greater investment in their agricultural sectors, and duty-free access to the 

EU-25 for Romania and Bulgaria are behind the projected gains in production and trade. 

• Brazil’s corn exports increase rapidly in the early years of the projections in response to 

higher corn prices relative to soybean prices. Brazil targets niche market demand for 

nongenetically modified grain. However, strong growth in domestic demand from its 

livestock sector and the profitability of growing soybeans limits corn exports. 

• China’s corn exports decline in the projections, reflecting strengthening domestic demand 

driven by its expanding livestock and industrial sectors. It is assumed that Chinese policy will 

tend to favor importing soybeans rather than corn. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 81

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

China: Corn imports and exports

Million metric tons

Exports

Imports

As more U.S. corn is used to produce ethanol, China is assumed to increase its corn production, 

slowing its decline in exports and its increase in imports. Nonetheless, China is projected to 

become a net corn importer midway through the projection period as demand for livestock feed 

overtakes China’s internal supplies of corn. China continues to export corn throughout the 

projection period, although in declining amounts, due to regional supply and demand differences. 

Northern China runs a corn surplus, while southern China has a corn deficit. 

• Corn is the favored crop in northeast China. Proximity to South Korea and other Asian 

markets provides a nearby source of demand, while various government measures—

including waivers of certain transportation construction taxes, and a rebate of the valueadded tax on exported corn—keep corn exports competitively priced in international 

markets. High ocean-freight rates raise the delivered cost of U.S. corn to Asian markets, 

another factor that keeps Chinese corn competitive. Shipments of corn from northeast 

China to the country’s southern markets are limited by China’s high internal transportation 

costs. 

• China’s corn consumption exceeded production during the early 2000s, pushing stocks 

lower. As consumption continues to grow, China is projected to increase imports and 

reduce exports, and to eventually become a net corn importer by 2012. Livestock feeding 

continues to increase in response to income growth and rising meat demand. Industrial use 

of corn, especially for starch, is also expected to grow robustly in China, but direct human 

consumption declines. 
82 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Saudi Arabia

Other N. Africa & M. East 

 FSU & OE 1/

 Latin America 2/

 China

 Japan

 United States

Global barley imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

2/ Includes Mexico. 

Global barley trade expands more than 3 million tons (18 percent) during the projection period. 

Rising demand for both malting and feed barley underpin the increased trade. 

• Feed barley imports by North African and Middle Eastern countries grow steadily through 

the period. In the mid-1990s, corn overtook barley as the principal coarse grain imported 

by these countries, due mainly to rising poultry production. This pattern is expected to 

continue through the projection period. However, the North Africa and Middle East region 

is expected to remain the world’s largest barley importing area. 

• Saudi Arabia—the world’s foremost barley importer—accounts for over 30 percent of 

world barley trade through the coming decade. Saudi Arabia’s barley imports are used 

primarily as feed for camels, goats, sheep, and poultry. 

• International demand for malting barley is boosted by strong growth in beer demand in 

many developing countries, notably China—the world’s largest malting barley importer. 

China’s beer demand is rising steadily due to growth in incomes and population. 

Expansion in China’s brewing capacity is being aided by foreign investment. China’s 

breweries use rice and other grains, as well as malting barley, which limits the growth in 

imports of malting barley. Australia and Canada are China’s main sources of malting 

barley imports. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 83

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 European Union 1/

 Australia 

 FSU 2/ 

 Canada 

 Other

Global barley exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

2/ Former Soviet Union.

Historically, global barley exports have originated primarily from the EU, Australia, and Canada. 

However, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Russia have emerged as important competitors in 

international feed barley markets and remain so throughout the projection period. 

• Barley production is expected to increase in the EU-25 as a result of Common Agricultural 

Policy (CAP) reform. The abolition of EU intervention for rye, combined with high barley 

prices, will stimulate the allocation of more area to barley production. However, EU-25 

exports to non-EU countries are projected to hover around 3 million tons over the 

projection period (15 percent of world trade), as the EU-25 is expected to be reluctant to 

subsidize exports. 

• The FSU remains a major barley exporter throughout the coming decade as exports surpass 

7 million tons. Together, the FSU and EU-25 account for more than 50 percent of world 

barley trade. 

• Malting barley is a different quality than feed barley and commands a substantial price 

premium over feed barley. This premium is expected to influence planting decisions in 

Canada and Australia and, in both countries, malting barley’s share of total barley area 

rises during the projection period. 
84 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Mexico

 Japan

Global sorghum imports

Million metric tons

World sorghum trade, which averaged nearly 6.5 million tons during the last decade, declines to 

just below 5 million tons in the middle of the projection period before rising slightly through the 

remainder of the coming decade. This trade is driven almost entirely by trade between the United 

States and Mexico. 

• Mexico is the world’s leading sorghum importer. However, corn imports are expected to 

replace sorghum and kibbled corn imports as Mexico’s over-quota tariff on U.S. and Canadian 

corn ends in 2008. In the projections, Mexico’s sorghum imports increase slightly in the later 

years, but remain just below 2.5 million tons. Even at this reduced import level, Mexico is 

expected to account for about 50 percent of world sorghum imports. 

• Japan imports a fairly constant volume of sorghum (1.4 million tons) throughout the period to 

maintain diversity and stability in its feed grain supplies. 

• The United States is the largest exporter of sorghum, accounting for more than 80 percent of 

world trade in recent years. During the projection period, the U.S. share declines slightly as 

some of its sorghum exports to Mexico shift to corn. 

• The primary sorghum markets for Argentina, the world’s second largest exporter, are Japan, 

Chile, and Europe. In Argentina, prices and profitability favor planting other crops, 

particularly soybeans and corn, so sorghum exports remain flat during the projection period. 

• Brazil has begun to export small quantities of sorghum and the volume is projected to rise 

during the projection period. In the Central-West region of Brazil, sorghum is increasingly 

planted during the dry season between crops of soybeans or cotton. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 85

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil

Soybeans and soybean meal, 

million metric tons

Soybeans

Soybean meal

Soybean oil

Soybean oil, 

million metric tons

Strong income and population growth in developing countries generates increasing demand for 

vegetable oils for food consumption and for protein meals used in livestock production. 

Additional demand is generated by the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production in some 

countries. World trade in soybeans and soybean oil both grow at an average annual rate of 3.5 

percent through the projection period, compared with 2.7 percent for soybean meal. 

• Prices for vegetable oils rise due to expansion of biodiesel production. As more of the 

value of oilseeds derives from the oil content relative to the protein meal content, vegetable 

oil prices rise in comparison to prices for oilseeds and protein meals. 

• Many countries with limited opportunity to expand oilseed production continue investment 

in oilseed crushing capacity, such as China and some countries in North Africa, the Middle 

East, and South Asia. As a result, import demand for soybeans and rapeseed grows rapidly. 

However, strong competition in international protein meal markets is expected to pressure 

crushing margins and shift some of the import demand for oilseeds to cheaper meals. The 

steady competitive pressure of new oilseed crushing capacity is expected to result in some 

inefficient crushers going out of business. 

• China’s expansion of domestic crushing capacity instead of importing protein meal and 

vegetable oil significantly influences the composition of world trade by raising 

international import demand for soybeans and other oilseeds rather than for oilseed 

products. 

• Brazil’s rapidly increasing soybean area enables it to gain a larger share of world soybean 

and soybean meal exports, despite increasing domestic feed use. Its share of world exports 

of soybeans plus the soybean equivalent of soybean meal exports rises from about 30-35 

percent in recent years to 46 percent by 2016. 

• The expansion in Argentine soybean area slows as incentives to grow corn and sunflower 

seed improve and conversion of pasture land to crop land slows. 
86 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 China & Hong Kong

 N. Africa & M. East

 Latin America 1/

 East Asia

 European Union 2/

Global soybean imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, 

Slovenia before 1992. 

World soybean trade is projected to rise rapidly, climbing more than 27 million metric tons (36 

percent) during the next decade. 

• The EU was the world’s leading importer of soybeans until 2002. However, increases in 

grain and rapeseed meal feeding and rising imports of soybean meal have resulted in 

declining soybean imports since then. 

• China will face policy decisions regarding tradeoffs in producing or importing corn and 

soybeans. The projections assume that Chinese policies will tend toward maintaining 

domestic corn production and importing soybeans. Thus, China accounts for 78 percent of 

the world’s 27-million-ton growth in soybean imports over the next 10 years. Significant 

investments in oilseed crushing infrastructure by China drive strong gains in soybean 

imports as China seeks to capture the value added from processing oilseeds into protein 

meal and vegetable oil. The use of vegetable oils for biofuels production is assumed to 

have only a minimal impact on China’s total vegetable oil use. 

• East Asia’s trade outlook is dominated by a continuing shift from importing feedstuffs to 

importing meat and other livestock products. As a result, the growth in this region’s import 

demand for protein meal and oilseeds slows during the coming decade 

• As Argentina seeks to operate its expanding crushing facilities at full capacity, it is 

projected to import nearly 3 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and 

Bolivia by the end of the period. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 87

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Other S. America

 Brazil

 Argentina

 United States

Global soybean exports

Million metric tons

The three leading soybean exporters—the United States, Brazil, and Argentina—account for 

more than 90 percent of world trade. 

• With continuing area gains, Brazil maintains its position as the world’s leading exporter of 

soybeans and soybean products. Combating soybean rust disease increases production 

costs. However, because of the increased domestic demand for soybean meal for feed and 

for soybean oil for human consumption and biodiesel production, soybeans remain more 

profitable than other crops in most areas of Brazil. It is assumed that some land in southern 

Brazil will shift from oilseed to corn production during the middle of the projection period 

in response to higher corn prices and more limited competition from U.S. corn exports. 

Still, with expanded soybean plantings in the Cerrado regions, the growth rate for Brazil’s 

soybean planted area is projected to average more than 4 percent a year, reaching about 32 

million hectares by 2016. Soybean exports are projected to double. 

• In the United States, projected declines in soybean acreage and increased domestic crush 

limit exportable supplies. 

• Argentina’s export tax structure favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and exporting the 

products. Also, Argentina is projected to divert some land from soybeans to corn. As a 

result, Argentina’s soybean exports decline slightly to about 6 million tons. 

• Soybean exports from Russia and the Ukraine increase slightly in response to higher 

international market prices. 
88 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Other

 FSU & OE 1/

 N. Africa & M. East

 Latin America 2/

 East Asia

 European Union 3/

Global soybean meal imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Includes Mexico.

3/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

World trade in soybean meal grows briskly during the projections, rising nearly 15 million tons 

(more than 25 percent) by 2016. Continuing growth in the demand for livestock products coupled 

with limited capability to increase oilseed production boosts demand for soybean meal by a 

number of countries with rising middle-income populations. Lower import prices of soybean meal 

relative to soybeans and grains provide incentives for countries to import soybean meal for 

inclusion at a higher rate in livestock feeds. 

• The EU remains the world’s largest destination for soybean meal throughout the projection 

period, despite increased domestic feeding of grains. Growth in soybean meal imports is 

expected to continue even though there will be increased competition from coarse grains 

from acceding countries, and more rapeseed meal available as a result of the biofuels 

expansion. These factors are partially offset by an increase in the dairy quota which 

increases soybean meal feeding. 

• The regions of Southeast Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America all 

become larger importers of soybean meal as the demand for livestock feed boosts import 

demand in a number of countries. 

• Mexico’s strong growth in demand for protein feed and vegetable oils is projected to 

continue. The crushing industry is also expected to continue expansion. This will boost 

soybean imports, but soybean meal imports from the United States are also expected to 

grow rapidly. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 89

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Argentina

 Brazil

 United States

Global soybean meal exports

Million metric tons

Argentina, Brazil, and the United States remain the three major exporters in international 

protein meal markets. Together they account for around 90 percent of total world soybean 

meal trade during the next 10 years. 

• Argentina, the world’s largest exporter, increases its share of soybean meal exports from 

around 45 percent in recent years to more than 50 percent in the latter portion of the 

projection period. The export shares of Brazil, the United States, and other exporters fall. 

Argentina maintains high utilization of its growing crushing capacity by importing 

soybeans from Brazil and other South American countries. 

• In Brazil, strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to rapid expansion of the 

poultry and pork sectors limits increases in soybean meal exports. Also, domestic soybean 

crushing capacity is not expected to grow as fast as soybean production because Brazil’s 

differential export tax structure favors exporting soybeans rather than soybean meal or 

soybean oil. 

• U.S. soybean meal exports could see growth for the first 2 years of the projection period, 

but slow thereafter as soybean stocks are reduced and limited production growth tightens 

the supply available for crushing. 

• The EU continues to be a small but steady exporter of soybean meal to Russia and other 

East European countries. India remains an exporter, although export volume declines as 

domestic use, especially for poultry feed, rapidly expands. 
90 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Rest of world

 EU, FSU, & OE 1/

 India

 China

 Other Asia 2/

 N. Africa & M. East

 Latin America 3/

Global soybean oil imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 

2/ Asia excluding India and China. 3/ Includes Mexico. 

World demand for soybean oil imports climbs 3.6 million metric tons (36 percent) in the 

projections, bolstered by increased food use and increased demand for use in biofuel 

production. China and India are the world’s two largest soybean oil importers. In recent years, 

their combined imports have been around 3.5 million tons, nearly 40 percent of the world total. 

• Import demand for soybean oil rises in nearly all countries and regions. Income and 

population growth in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America (particularly 

Central America and the Caribbean) drive rapid gains in soybean oil imports. Rising 

international prices for soybean oil will temper consumption, however, especially in 

developing countries. 

• India is one of the world’s largest soybean oil importers. Factors that contribute to 

continued growth in imports include burgeoning domestic demand for vegetable oils and 

limitations on domestic production of oilseeds. Low yields, associated with erratic rainfed 

growing conditions and low input use, inhibit growth of oilseed production in India. Lower 

Indian tariffs on soybean oil (held down by World Trade Organization (WTO) tariffbinding commitments) compared with tariffs for other vegetable oils support continued 

large imports of soybean oil. 

• China experiences a growing demand for vegetable oils. However, land-use competition 

from other crops constrains area planted to oilseed crops. As a result, demand outpaces 

domestic vegetable oil production and fuels a moderate expansion in soybean oil imports, 

although China seeks to restrain them to support margins for domestic crushers. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 91

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Argentina

 Brazil

 European Union 1/

 United States

Global soybean oil exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Argentina’s and Brazil’s combined share of world soybean oil exports rises from less than 80 

percent in recent years to about 85 percent by the end of the projections. 

• Argentina is the leading exporter of soybean oil, reflecting the country’s large crush capacity, 

its small domestic market for soybean oil, and an export tax structure that favors exports of 

soybean products rather than soybeans. Increases in soybean crush and soybean oil exports are 

supported by gains in Argentine soybean production due to extensive double-cropping, further 

adjustments to crop-pasture rotations, and the addition of marginal lands in the northwest part 

of the country. Argentina also increases soybean imports from other South American countries 

in order to more fully utilize its crushing capacity. Growth in Argentina’s biodiesel production 

capacity, with incentives from a lower export tax for biodiesel than for soybean oil, may 

constrain growth in soybean oil exports in the future. 

• Brazil’s expansion of soybean production into new areas of cultivation enables it to increase 

both its volume of soybean oil exports and its share of world trade. 

• The European Union and the United States remain the world’s next largest soybean oil 

exporters, although their export volumes and shares of world trade continue a downward trend. 

In the EU, exportable supplies of vegetable oils are limited by the growth in biodiesel 

production. 
92 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Other Asia

 Indonesia

 N. Africa & M. East

 Sub-Saharan Africa

 EU, FSU, & OE 1/

 Latin America 2/

Global rice imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico.

Global rice trade is projected to grow 2.4 percent per year from 2007 to2016. By 2016, global rice 

trade reaches nearly 35 million tons, nearly 25 percent above the record set in 2002. 

• In recent years, long-grain varieties have accounted for around three-fourths of global rice 

trade and are expected to account for the bulk of trade growth over the next decade. Longgrain rice is imported by a broad spectrum of countries in South and Southeast Asia, much 

of the Middle East, nearly all of Sub-Saharan Africa, and most of Latin America. Much of 

the increase in rice consumption in these regions reflects population growth. 

• Medium- and short-grain rice account for 10-12 percent of global trade, with Japan, South 

Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Jordan, and Papua New Guinea the major importers. Expansion in 

medium-grain rice trade is projected to be much smaller than for long grain. Among the 

Northeast Asian buyers, only South Korea is projected to increase purchases over the next 

decade. All rice imports by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the result of minimum 

import commitments under the WTO. 

• Aromatic rice, primarily basmati and jasmine, makes up most of the rest of global rice 

trade. Aromatics typically sell at a substantial price premium over long- and medium-grain 

varieties. Aromatics are imported mostly for high-income consumers. 

• Indonesia and Bangladesh, two of the world’s leading rice-importing countries, will 

experience rising food demand due to growing populations. However, land constraints and 

already high cropping intensities indicate little opportunity for either country to 

significantly expand production. Thus, their imports are projected to increase over the next 

decade and account for 28 percent of the increase in rice trade. 

• In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, strong demand growth is driven by rapidly 

expanding populations. But opportunities to expand production are limited by climatic 

conditions in the Middle East, and by infrastructure deficiencies in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 20 percent of the increase in world rice trade during the 

projection period. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 93

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 India

 China

 Thailand

 Pakistan

 Vietnam

 South America

 United States

Global rice exports

Million metric tons

Asia remains the largest rice-exporting region throughout the projection period. 

• Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s largest rice-exporting countries, account for almost half 

of all rice exports in the coming decade. Vietnam exports primarily long-grain rice. 

Thailand exports aromatic, regular long-grain, and glutinous varieties of rice. Rising 

production, a result of higher yields, and declining per capita consumption, particularly in 

Thailand, drive the expansion in exports from both countries. 

• India is the third-largest rice exporter. India has been a major exporter since the mid1990s, although export levels have been rather volatile, primarily due to fluctuating 

production and stock levels. Exports are projected to increase over the next decade as high 

internal prices stimulate production and exportable supplies. India exports both lowquality long-grain rice and smaller quantities of high-quality basmati rice. 

• The United States is projected to remain the fourth-largest rice-exporting country. Rising 

domestic demand, fractional area expansion, and a slower growth rate in yields constrain 

the expansion of U.S. rice exports. The United States exports both long-grain and 

medium/short-grain rice. 

• Pakistan is the world’s fifth-leading exporter. Pakistan has boosted rice area and 

production in the past few years. However, Pakistan has little ability to expand rice area 

beyond its current record level, and its agricultural sector is confronting a growing water 

shortage and a decaying infrastructure. Rice exports increase very slightly, to about 3.1 

million tons by 2016. Pakistan exports both high-quality basmati and low-quality longgrain rice. 

• Rice exports from China have declined from about 2 million tons in most years during the 

half-decade ending in 2003, to about 1 million tons annually since then. Little, if any, 

growth in China’s rice exports is projected. Production is projected to decline very slightly 

during the next decade, as declining area more than offsets rising yields. Consumption 

decreases fractionally over the next decade as declining per capita rice consumption more 

than offsets a rising population. China exports high-quality, medium/short-grain rice to 

Northeast Asian markets and low-quality, long-grain rice to Sub-Saharan Africa and some 

lower-income Asian markets. 
94 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 China

 Latin America 1/

 Southeast Asia 2/

 South Asia 3/

 EU, FSU, & OE 4/

 East Asia

Global cotton imports

Million bales

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 3/ Bangladesh, 

India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 

With global cotton consumption growing dramatically, international trade has become increasingly 

important in world cotton markets. Not only has textile trade liberalization helped boost world 

cotton demand through increased efficiency, but geographic shifts in the mill use of cotton have 

increased the role of trade in meeting the global textile industry’s need for cotton. Trade’s 

importance has rebounded in recent years as China’s and, to a lesser extent, Pakistan’s textile 

sectors have grown substantially faster than their cotton production. 

• The textile industries in China, India, and Pakistan are the major beneficiaries of textile 

trade liberalization through the elimination of Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas. 

• China has been importing record amounts of cotton as its textile industry’s growth rapidly 

accelerated with a booming economy and WTO accession. Both its textile industry and its 

cotton imports are expected to grow more slowly than the rapid increase since 2001. 

However, during the next decade, the increase in cotton imports by China is projected to 

more than offset the decline in imports by other countries, and China accounts for 47 

percent of world imports by 2016. 

• Pakistan has emerged as a major importer in recent years, and is expected to remain in this 

role throughout the projection period, eventually overtaking Turkey as the second-largest 

global market. 

• In recent years, Turkey’s textile industry has benefited from favorable trade access to the 

EU, its major market for textile and apparel exports. However, the end of the MFA quotas 

gives lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Consequently, Turkey’s 

cotton imports are projected to decline slowly over the next 10 years. 

• The EU, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all steadily reduce their cotton imports as textile 

trade reforms and/or higher wages in these countries drive textile production to countries 

with lower wages and other costs. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 95

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Former Soviet Union

 South America

 Australia

 Sub-Saharan Africa

 United States

Global cotton exports

Million bales

Globalization is expected to continue to move raw cotton production to countries with favorable 

resource endowments and technology. Land is a key input factor, but the importance of 

technology has been highlighted by the impact of India’s rapid adoption of genetically modified 

cotton, nearly all Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. Traditional producers with large land bases 

suitable for cotton production are expected to benefit from post-MFA trade patterns. Such 

producer/exporter regions include the United States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Brazil. 

• The United States continues as the world’s leading cotton exporter throughout the 

projections. Exports dip to 17.2 million bales in 2008/09, but grow to more than 19 million 

bales by 2016/17. 

• The Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union have been the principal U.S. 

competitors since the early 1990s. However, government policies in Central Asia 

promoting investment in textiles have resulted, to some extent, in exports of textile 

products rather than exports of raw cotton. Furthermore, the region’s economic 

liberalization is far from complete, and cotton production is expected to grow only slowly. 

• Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports have overtaken Central Asia’s exports in large part due to 

economic reforms. West Africa’s 1994 exchange rate devaluation led to nearly a decade of 

growth within the region’s monetary union. As West Africa’s production gains began to 

lag at the end of the 1990s, several southern African countries began increasing their cotton 

production, aided by reforms such as eliminating marketing board monopolies. Continued 

increases in output are expected as producers take advantage of more export-oriented 

government policies, and Bt cotton is eventually adopted by the region’s producers. 

• Improved Indian cotton crop yields, in part due to the adoption of Bt cotton, have raised 

India’s output in recent years. Rapid yield growth is projected to continue with the 

increase in cotton output being used for domestic textile production rather than for export. 
96 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Meat exports 1/ 

Million metric tons

1/ Major exporters. 

Beef and veal

Pork

Poultry

The growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat average 1.3, 1.5, 

and 1.9 percent a year, respectively, between 2007 and 2016. During this period, exports rise 

nearly 1 million tons for beef, 0.7 million for pork, and 1.3 million for poultry. Rising per capita 

incomes, combined with population growth in a number of countries, are the driving force behind 

the projected growth in global meat demand. 

• BSE in Canada and the United States has resulted in changes in Canada’s beef and live 

cattle exports to the United States. In 2004-05, Canadian beef exports recovered from 

much of the decline that followed its 2003 BSE case, but then fell again in 2006. During 

the coming decade, Canadian beef exports are expected to recover once again, rising to a 

level just below their 2002 record. Canadian exports to the United States of live cattle 

under 30 months of age are assumed to continue. 

• EU enlargement from EU-15 to EU-25 results in greater shipments between the EU 

member countries and restrained trade of meat outside the EU-25. EU beef exports remain 

well below the annual WTO export-subsidy limit of 817,000 tons, as a stronger euro limits 

their competitiveness and policy changes lower both beef production and the need to 

remove beef from the domestic market. 

• Argentine beef exports rose sharply in 2004 and 2005. However, export taxes and other 

recent policy changes have made Argentina’s exports less competitive. Beef exports are 

projected to decline, but remain above their pre-2004 levels. 

• The projections assume that Brazil does not gain nationwide FMD-free status. However, 

exports from Brazil’s expanding pork sector are expected to be competitive in pricesensitive markets, and countries less concerned about FMD, such as Russia. 

• During the coming decade, Brazil is expected to remain the largest exporter of poultry 

products, due to low production costs and competitive export prices. 

• Poultry exports from the United States are expected to continue to increase. 

• Exports of poultry from Thailand and China will be limited to fully cooked products for 

most of the projection period because avian influenza has occurred in those countries. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 97

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Russia

 East Asia

 N. Africa & M. East

 European Union

Canada & Mexico

United States

Beef imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

2/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Beef imports by major importers expand about 1.4 million tons (27 percent) between 2007 and 

2016. Traditionally, beef trade occurred largely between developed countries. However, Brazil 

has become a large exporter of lower quality beef that is imported by lower income countries and 

countries with less stringent import restrictions concerning FMD. The projections assume gradual 

recovery of U.S. and Canadian exports to Japan and South Korea. 

• Higher income countries, such as Japan and South Korea, increase beef imports, reflecting 

domestic cattle sectors that are constrained by land availability. These imports are 

primarily of grain-fed beef. U.S. beef exports to these countries are projected to rebuild 

over the next 10 years, but do not completely recover to levels attained prior to the first 

U.S. BSE case in December 2003. Also, there continues to be an increased presence of 

Australia and New Zealand in these East Asian markets. 

• U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for use 

in ground beef and processed products, rise slightly through the period. Continued strong 

Asian imports of beef from Australia and New Zealand enable these exporters to maintain 

significant levels of exports. 

• Robust import growth of U.S. higher quality beef is projected for Mexico. 

• The projections assume that Russia’s tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef, first imposed in 

2003, remains in effect until 2009. In the longer run, the growth in Russia’s beef imports 

resumes as rising consumer demand outpaces gains in domestic production. Russia 

remains a large market for EU and Brazilian beef exports. 
98 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Mexico

 East Asia

 Russia

 China & Hong Kong

 United States

Pork imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

The major pork importers are projected to increase trade by nearly 1 million tons (26 percent) 

between 2007 and 2016. 

• Mexican pork imports increase nearly 200,000 tons between 2007 and 2016, making 

Mexico one of the fastest growing pork importers. Increases in income and population are 

the primary drivers of Mexico’s increasing demand for pork products. 

• Higher income countries of East Asia, such as Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea, 

increase pork imports as their domestic hog sectors are constrained by environmental 

concerns and high imported feed costs. In South Korea and Japan, animal health related 

concerns regarding beef and poultry also boost pork demand. 

• As with beef, the projections assume that the TRQ that Russia imposed for pork in 2003 

remains in effect until 2009. Although the TRQ initially lowered pork imports, Russia 

remains a major destination for competitively priced pork exports from the EU and Brazil 

as demand growth continues to exceed Russian meat producers’ ability to respond. By 

2016, Russia is projected to import about 250,000 tons more pork than in 2007, growing 

more than any other country. 

• In China, increasing incomes boost per capita pork consumption and raise imports in the 

projections. However, China’s pork production and exports also continue to rise but 

China’s net pork exports rise only slightly during the coming decade. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 99

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Russia

 Other N Afr. & M. East

 European Union 2/

 East Asia

 China & Hong Kong

 Saudi Arabia

 Mexico

Poultry imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

2/ EU-25 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by about 0.8 million tons (15 

percent) from 2007 to 2016. 

• Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest poultry importer, with higher consumer 

income increasing demand for poultry products and offsetting slow population growth. 

However, the increase in demand is expected to be filled mostly by domestic production, 

and Russia’s poultry imports are expected to decline slightly during the coming decade. 

• In Mexico, strong economic growth raises poultry consumption and imports. Domestic 

poultry production continues to increase, but lags rising consumer demand. Although beef 

is the preferred meat among Mexico’s consumers, consumption of poultry meats rises more 

rapidly because of its lower price. 

• Poultry consumption growth in China is met by expanding domestic production and 

growing imports. 

• Because of avian influenza, some major poultry-exporting countries such as Thailand and 

China will shift most of their exports to fully cooked products. Due to their higher costs, 

these cooked poultry products will be marketed to developed or high-income countries in 

Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. 

• Poultry imports by Saudi Arabia and the Other North Africa and the Middle East region are 

projected to rise strongly. Outbreaks of avian influenza in some countries may slow 

growth in domestic production and increase reliance on imports to fill consumption needs. 

• Rising consumer incomes increase reliance on larger poultry imports in a number of 

Central America and Caribbean countries. The Central America Free Trade Agreement is 

also expected to stimulate trade. Together with Mexico, these countries form one of the 

largest markets for poultry imports. 
100 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 34. Coarse grains trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 Former Soviet Union1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5

 Other Europe 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

 European Union2 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0

 North Africa & Middle East 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.6 32.2 32.8

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 2.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2

 Japan 19.8 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.0

 South Korea 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7

 Taiwan 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

 China 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.2

 Other Asia & Oceania 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4

 Mexico 9.8 9.3 9.3 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6

 Central America & Caribbean 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3

 Brazil 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9

 Other South America 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2

 Other foreign4 3.6 4.9 4.4 5.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3

United States 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8

Total trade 105.4 104.2 103.0 106.3 109.6 111.7 113.8 115.7 117.8 120.1 122.1 124.2

Exporters

 European Union2 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

 China 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4

 Argentina 9.0 12.0 13.5 16.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.7

 Australia 5.7 2.9 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8

 Canada 4.1 3.5 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3

 Republic of South Africa 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8

 Other Europe 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2

 Former Soviet Union1 8.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8

 Other foreign 7.4 4.3 6.6 8.2 9.3 8.2 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6

 United States 60.1 60.5 53.4 51.3 51.3 53.2 55.1 56.4 57.6 58.9 60.2 61.4

Percent

U.S. trade share 57.1 58.1 51.9 48.2 46.8 47.6 48.4 48.7 48.9 49.1 49.3 49.5

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

2/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

3/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

4/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 101

Table 35. Corn trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 European Union1 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1

 Former Soviet Union2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Egypt 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6

 Algeria 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8

 Morocco 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8

 Iran 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0

 Saudi Arabia 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8

 Turkey 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Other N. Africa & Middle East 4.8 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0

 Japan 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8

 South Korea 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4

 Taiwan 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7

 China 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.3

 Indonesia 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

 Malaysia 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4

 Other Asia & Oceania 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

 Canada 2.0 2.8 2.0 2.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9

 Mexico 6.7 6.3 6.7 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.0

 Central America & Caribbean 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2

 Brazil 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Other South America 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 2.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8

 Other foreign4 0.5 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

 United States 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Total trade 79.0 80.8 78.1 81.1 84.0 85.7 87.4 88.9 90.7 92.5 94.0 95.7

Exporters

 European Union1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 China 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4

 Argentina 8.5 11.5 13.0 16.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0

 Brazil 3.5 2.0 4.2 5.5 6.6 5.4 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5

 Republic of South Africa 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8

 Other Europe 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

 Former Soviet Union2 2.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7

 Other foreign 3.4 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6

 United States 54.5 55.9 48.9 47.0 47.0 48.9 50.8 52.1 53.3 54.6 55.9 57.2

Percent

U.S. trade share 69.1 69.2 62.6 57.9 56.0 57.1 58.2 58.6 58.8 59.1 59.4 59.7

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

3/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

4/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

Table 36. Sorghum trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 Japan 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4

 Mexico 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5

 North Africa & Middle East 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 South America 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Sub-Saharan Africa1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 Other2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Total trade 5.4 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0

Exporters

 Argentina 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

 Australia 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

 Other foreign 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

 United States 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8

Percent

U.S. trade share 91.2 88.0 84.0 81.3 81.3 81.1 80.9 80.7 80.4 79.6 78.1 76.3

1/ Includes the Republic of South Africa.

2/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
102 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 37. Barley trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 Former Soviet Union1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

 Japan 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

 South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Taiwan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 China 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8

 European Union2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8

 Latin America3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

 Algeria 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Saudi Arabia 6.7 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3

 Morocco 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Tunisia 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Republic of South Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Iran 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

 Other N. Africa & M. East 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3

 Other foreign4 1.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 United States 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Total trade 18.4 15.9 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6

Exporters

 European Union2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

 Australia 5.3 2.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2

 Canada 2.3 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7

 Russia 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6

 Ukraine 4.0 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3

 Other Former Soviet Union5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

 Turkey 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4

 Other foreign 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1

 United States 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Percent

U.S. trade share 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

2/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

3/ Includes Mexico.

4/ Includes unaccounted.

5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Exports, million metric tons

Imports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 103

Table 38. Wheat trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 Algeria 5.5 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0

 Egypt 7.8 7.0 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7

 Morocco 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2

 Iran 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

 Iraq 4.8 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

 Tunisia 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

 Other N. Africa & Middle East 9.0 8.4 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6

 Sub-Saharan Africa1 13.0 12.2 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2

 Mexico 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

 Central America & Caribbean 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0

 Brazil 6.5 7.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.9

 Other South America 6.6 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7

 European Union2 7.6 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2

 Other Europe 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

 Former Soviet Union3 4.7 4.0 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7

 Japan 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2

 South Korea 3.9 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2

 Philippines 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7

 Indonesia 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2

 China 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6

 Bangladesh 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

 Malaysia 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

 Thailand 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7

 Vietnam 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9

 Pakistan 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

 Other Asia & Oceania 4.9 10.5 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6

 Other foreign 5.4 -0.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

 United States 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4

Total trade 115.5 109.1 113.5 117.5 120.7 123.7 126.8 129.4 132.0 134.6 137.1 140.1

Exporters

 European Union2 15.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6

 Canada 16.1 20.5 18.0 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.1

 Australia 16.0 10.5 14.5 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.1

 Argentina 8.2 8.5 10.5 11.0 12.0 12.4 13.0 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.4

 Russia 10.7 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5

 Ukraine 6.5 3.5 4.7 5.7 6.5 7.3 7.7 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.9

 Other Former Soviet Union4 3.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0

 Other Europe 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9

 India 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 China 1.4 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6

 Turkey 3.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

 Other foreign 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1

 United States 27.5 25.2 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 29.3 29.9 30.6

Percent

U.S. trade share 23.8 23.1 22.8 22.0 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.9

1/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

2/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

3/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

4/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
104 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 39. Soybean trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 European Union1 13.8 14.1 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.4

 Japan 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

 South Korea 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Taiwan 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

 Mexico 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9

 Former Soviet Union2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Other Europe 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

 China 28.3 32.0 35.9 38.4 40.9 43.8 46.5 48.7 50.8 52.9 55.1 57.2

 Malaysia 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9

 Indonesia 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9

 Other 8.7 10.3 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.0

 Total imports 64.4 70.6 74.8 78.2 81.3 84.8 88.2 91.1 93.9 96.7 99.4 102.0

Exporters

 Argentina 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1

 Brazil 25.9 25.9 29.9 37.4 44.4 47.6 50.5 53.1 55.3 57.7 59.7 62.0

 Other South America 3.3 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7

 China 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 Other foreign 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3

 United States 25.8 31.2 31.3 27.2 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.7 23.7

 Total exports 64.4 70.6 74.8 78.2 81.3 84.8 88.2 91.1 93.9 96.7 99.4 102.0

Percent

U.S. trade share 40.0 44.2 41.9 34.8 28.3 27.1 26.2 25.4 24.9 24.2 23.8 23.2

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 105

Table 40. Soybean meal trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 European Union1 22.9 22.7 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.7

 Former Soviet Union2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4

 Other Europe 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

 Canada 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9

 Japan 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

 Southeast Asia 8.0 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0

 Latin America 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6

 North Africa & Middle East 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.0

 Other 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.2

 Total imports 51.3 52.9 54.5 56.2 57.9 59.6 61.2 62.9 64.5 66.1 67.7 69.4

Exporters

 Argentina 24.3 26.3 27.6 28.2 29.3 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.8 33.5 34.1 34.7

 Brazil 12.9 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.3

 Other South America 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

 China 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 India 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4

 European Union1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Other foreign 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 United States 7.2 7.7 8.2 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7

 Total exports 51.3 52.9 54.5 56.2 57.9 59.6 61.2 62.9 64.5 66.1 67.7 69.4

Percent

U.S. trade share 14.1 14.6 15.0 16.1 15.8 15.5 15.5 15.1 14.8 14.5 14.2 14.0

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

Table 41. Soybean oil trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 China 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

 India 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1

 Other Asia 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3

 Latin America 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8

 North Africa & Middle East 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6

 European Union1 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1

 Former Soviet Union & Other Europe2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Other 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Total imports 9.3 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5

Exporters

 Argentina 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7

 Brazil 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1

 European Union1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Other foreign 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 United States 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

 Total exports 9.3 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5

Percent

U.S. trade share 5.6 5.7 4.5 4.0 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
106 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 42. Rice trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 Canada 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41

 Mexico 0.60 0.60 0.64 0.67 0.68 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83

 Central America/Caribbean 1.60 1.76 1.77 1.80 1.84 1.85 1.88 1.92 1.95 1.99 2.01 2.03

 Brazil 0.60 0.75 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90

 Other South America 0.31 0.38 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45

 European Union1 0.93 0.93 1.11 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.37

 Former Soviet Union2 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

 Other Europe 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21

 Bangladesh 0.70 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.81 0.89 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.31 1.44 1.57

 China 0.70 0.80 0.88 0.92 1.02 1.08 1.12 1.17 1.25 1.33 1.41 1.49

 Japan 0.70 0.65 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68

 South Korea 0.40 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.41

 Indonesia 0.90 0.60 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.16 1.27 1.36 1.52 1.65 1.78 1.90

 Malaysia 0.85 0.85 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77

 Philippines 1.90 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.62 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.68 1.70 1.74 1.81

 Other Asia & Oceania 2.25 2.49 2.48 2.47 2.49 2.51 2.53 2.56 2.59 2.61 2.63 2.65

 Iraq 1.20 1.20 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.21 1.25 1.28 1.32 1.35 1.38

 Iran 1.20 0.90 0.98 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.08 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.31 1.37

 Saudi Arabia 1.36 1.00 1.13 1.31 1.33 1.36 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.50

 Other N. Africa & M. East 1.48 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.56 1.60 1.64 1.67 1.71 1.74 1.79 1.82

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 6.56 6.60 6.80 7.01 7.15 7.27 7.40 7.54 7.69 7.84 8.02 8.20

 Republic of South Africa 0.85 0.80 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92

 Other foreign4 1.15 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96

 United States 0.54 0.57 0.58 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.77

 Total imports 27.86 28.10 29.08 29.77 30.47 31.19 31.95 32.72 33.51 34.31 35.13 35.95

Exporters

 Australia 0.33 0.15 0.15 0.22 0.28 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.41 0.42

 Argentina 0.35 0.45 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.61

 Other South America 1.30 1.18 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.19 1.23 1.26 1.30 1.35

 European Union1 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23

 China 1.10 1.00 0.98 1.00 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08

 India 3.80 4.30 4.58 4.61 4.73 4.90 5.08 5.27 5.40 5.60 5.80 6.00

 Pakistan 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.95 3.03 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.05 3.06

 Thailand 7.30 8.25 8.92 9.09 9.42 9.75 10.10 10.40 10.80 11.20 11.55 11.95

 Vietnam 5.00 4.70 4.61 4.84 4.97 5.14 5.27 5.39 5.49 5.58 5.67 5.75

 Egypt 1.00 0.90 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.51

 Other foreign 0.96 1.08 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.26 1.29

 United States 3.65 3.05 3.37 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.43 3.50 3.56 3.61 3.65 3.72

 Total exports 27.86 28.11 29.08 29.77 30.47 31.19 31.95 32.72 33.51 34.31 35.13 35.95

Percent

U.S. trade share 13.1 10.9 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

3/ Excludes Republic of South Africa

4/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 107

Table 43. All cotton trade long-term projections

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Importers

 European Union1 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

 Former Soviet Union2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

 Indonesia 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4

 Thailand 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3

 India 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Brazil 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Other Europe 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Other Asia & Oceania 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3

 Pakistan 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.1

 Japan 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 South Korea 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

 China 19.3 17.5 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.1 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.2

 Taiwan 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Turkey 3.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1

 Mexico 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1

 Other 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6

 Total imports 44.2 42.0 46.0 45.7 46.4 46.9 48.0 49.3 50.1 50.9 51.4 51.9

Exporters

 Former Soviet Union2 7.0 6.8 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.2

 Australia 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7

 Argentina 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

 Pakistan 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

 India 4.0 4.2 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.0

 Egypt 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Brazil 2.0 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5

 Other Latin America 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 6.5 6.3 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.5 8.7

 Other foreign 3.5 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3

 United States 18.0 16.2 17.6 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2

 Total exports 45.4 41.5 45.5 45.2 45.9 46.4 47.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 50.9 51.4

Percent

U.S. trade share 39.8 39.0 38.6 38.1 37.8 37.7 37.7 37.5 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.4

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

3/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, million bales

Exports, million bales
108 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

Table 44. Beef trade long-term projections

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Importers

 Japan 700 693 765 785 801 813 825 836 846 856 866 876

 South Korea 243 193 230 263 280 293 309 329 348 363 384 400

 Taiwan 92 98 100 101 102 106 108 110 113 116 119 121

 Philippines 140 142 148 168 180 189 201 208 215 222 229 237

 European Union1 599 540 560 650 650 650 651 651 651 650 650 650

 Russia 993 840 905 989 1,005 1,014 1,023 1,039 1,046 1,059 1,070 1,074

 Other Europe 137 119 115 178 187 193 197 204 209 214 218 221

 Egypt 214 225 240 273 284 291 303 308 314 320 326 332

 Mexico 325 365 375 450 506 546 588 623 666 699 734 767

 Canada 133 150 160 179 190 195 200 210 216 224 229 233

 United States 1,632 1,439 1,524 1,527 1,537 1,548 1,559 1,570 1,581 1,593 1,605 1,617

 Major importers 5,208 4,804 5,122 5,563 5,721 5,837 5,963 6,087 6,204 6,316 6,429 6,527

Exporters

 Australia 1,413 1,420 1,495 1,477 1,459 1,410 1,385 1,376 1,379 1,386 1,410 1,414

 New Zealand 589 540 570 568 561 557 556 553 552 550 547 545

 Other Asia 719 840 885 899 927 945 974 1,006 1,038 1,059 1,077 1,099

 European Union1 255 200 200 215 252 273 285 297 309 327 346 365

 Argentina 762 500 600 554 543 527 523 516 509 498 491 474

 Brazil 1,867 1,945 1,985 1,992 2,049 2,127 2,190 2,243 2,283 2,311 2,338 2,355

 Canada 551 455 440 433 438 462 484 504 524 541 556 568

 United States 317 523 680 706 741 776 811 846 881 925 963 1,024

 Major exporters 6,473 6,423 6,855 6,844 6,968 7,076 7,209 7,342 7,475 7,596 7,729 7,844

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007 109

Table 46. Poultry trade long-term projections 1/

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Importers

 Russia 1,332 1,336 1,251 1,212 1,252 1,259 1,268 1,278 1,278 1,256 1,235 1,202

 European Union2 625 710 760 610 614 617 620 623 626 629 632 635

 Other Europe 183 157 147 150 147 150 155 160 164 169 175 181

 Canada 107 110 120 121 123 125 127 129 131 132 134 136

 Mexico 559 590 624 645 665 685 705 725 745 765 790 810

 Central America/Caribbean 497 510 514 528 537 541 542 547 552 552 559 565

 Japan 748 740 725 724 725 731 737 747 748 755 759 760

 Hong Kong 222 234 237 248 252 255 259 263 266 270 274 277

 China 219 370 430 461 486 506 524 540 556 575 590 602

 South Korea 59 70 75 86 91 98 105 112 120 129 137 145

 Saudi Arabia 484 434 470 492 510 529 545 563 580 598 615 632

 Other N. Africa & M. East 336 232 349 347 374 402 429 458 489 519 555 592

 Major importers 5,371 5,493 5,702 5,625 5,774 5,896 6,015 6,144 6,255 6,349 6,454 6,537

Exporters

 European Union2 943 770 835 911 941 958 961 975 978 974 972 965

 Brazil 2,900 2,653 2,710 2,716 2,796 2,900 3,005 3,110 3,215 3,320 3,425 3,530

 China 331 350 365 381 394 388 384 382 381 376 380 383

 Thailand 240 280 280 292 314 325 332 342 345 342 343 343

 United States 2,678 2,762 2,833 2,807 2,840 2,881 2,930 2,970 3,015 3,057 3,101 3,146

 Major exporters 7,092 6,815 7,023 7,108 7,284 7,451 7,612 7,780 7,935 8,069 8,221 8,367

1/ Broilers and turkeys only.

2/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Exports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Table 45. Pork trade long-term projections

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Importers

 Japan 1,339 1,250 1,228 1,273 1,282 1,295 1,309 1,323 1,337 1,352 1,368 1,385 

 China 48 36 37 38 39 42 44 46 48 51 53 54 

 Hong Kong 305 310 317 331 340 350 359 370 381 393 406 419 

 South Korea 328 254 220 257 282 301 314 321 328 337 345 352 

 Russia 765 800 825 860 893 925 959 981 1,006 1,031 1,055 1,076 

 Mexico 420 450 460 488 505 532 554 572 592 615 635 657 

 Canada 140 140 145 149 152 154 157 160 163 166 169 172 

 United States 465 463 467 473 480 489 498 508 518 529 539 550 

 Major importers 3,810 3,703 3,699 3,868 3,973 4,088 4,194 4,281 4,372 4,475 4,569 4,665 

Exporters

 Brazil 761 540 570 584 593 615 654 687 709 751 787 816 

 Canada 1,084 1,100 1,120 1,135 1,129 1,118 1,108 1,090 1,081 1,079 1,082 1,084 

 Mexico 59 65 70 72 74 77 79 82 84 87 89 92 

 European Union1 1,400 1,357 1,400 1,458 1,495 1,515 1,534 1,561 1,583 1,593 1,605 1,617 

 China 502 500 510 529 545 558 565 574 582 586 589 594 

 United States 1,209 1,346 1,402 1,444 1,465 1,487 1,510 1,532 1,555 1,579 1,602 1,626 

 Major exporters 4,972 4,951 5,072 5,221 5,301 5,370 5,450 5,525 5,595 5,673 5,754 5,829 

1/ Covers EU-25, excludes intra-EU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2006.

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight
110 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007

List of Tables 

Page 

Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions........................................................................................... 17 

Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions ..................................................................................... 18 

Table 3. Population growth assumptions............................................................................................... 19 

Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2005-2016.................................................. 36 

Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions ............................................................. 36 

Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections .......................... 37 

Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections .......... 38 

Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections .............................................................................................. 39 

Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections ....................................................................................... 40 

Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections ........................................................................................... 41 

Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections............................................................................................... 42 

Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections............................................................................................ 43 

Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections................................................................... 44 

Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis ........................................................................... 45 

Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections................................................................................ 46 

Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections............................................................................................. 47 

Table 17. Flue-cured tobacco long-term projections............................................................................... 48 

Table 18. Burley tobacco long-term projections ..................................................................................... 48 

Table 19. Horticultural crops long-term projections: Production, values, and prices, calendar years .... 49 

Table 20. Horticultural crops long-term projections: Exports and imports, fiscal years......................... 50 

Table 21. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight............................................................................. 57 

Table 22. Consumer expenditures for meats ........................................................................................... 57 

Table 23. Beef long-term projections...................................................................................................... 58 

Table 24. Pork long-term projections...................................................................................................... 59 

Table 25. Young chicken long-term projections ..................................................................................... 59 

Table 26. Turkey long-term projections.................................................................................................. 60 

Table 27. Egg long-term projections ....................................................................................................... 60 

Table 28. Dairy long-term projections .................................................................................................... 61 

Table 29. Farm receipts, expenses, and incomes in nominal dollars....................................................... 68 

Table 30. Farm receipts, expenses, and incomes in 1996 dollars............................................................ 68 

Table 31. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections ......................... 69 

Table 32. Changes in consumer food prices, long-term projections ....................................................... 69 

Table 33. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years ................................. 70 

Table 34. Coarse grains trade long-term projections............................................................................. 100 

Table 35. Corn trade long-term projections........................................................................................... 101 

Table 36. Sorghum trade long-term projections.................................................................................... 101 

Table 37. Barley trade long-term projections........................................................................................ 102 

Table 38. Wheat trade long-term projections ........................................................................................ 103 

Table 39. Soybean trade long-term projections..................................................................................... 104 

Table 40. Soybean meal trade long-term projections............................................................................ 105 

Table 41. Soybean oil trade long-term projections................................................................................ 105 

Table 42. Rice trade long-term projections ........................................................................................... 106 

Table 43. All cotton trade long-term projections .................................................................................. 107 

Table 44. Beef trade long-term projections........................................................................................... 108 

Table 45. Pork trade long-term projections........................................................................................... 109 

Table 46. Poultry trade long-term projections....................................................................................... 109 

Feature Table 

Corn and soybean projections under alternative biofuel policy assumptions ............................................. 25