By Michael R. Rand

BJS Statistician

James P. Lynch, Ph.D.

American University

David Cantor, Ph.D.

Westat

In 1994, compared to 1973, the U.S.

population was about as vulnerable to

violent crime but significantly less vulnerable to property crime. From 1973

through 1994, the rates of violent crime

victimization had intervals of stability,

increase, and decrease, while the

rates of property crime underwent a

virtually uninterrupted decrease. The

1994-95 decline in the violent crime

rate was the largest single-year decrease ever measured in the total violent category.

The crime trends presented in this report are largely based on data from the

National Crime Victimization Survey

(NCVS), an ongoing survey of occupants of U.S. households to ask about

their exposure to crime. In 1992 a redesigned interview was put into place

to improve survey methods and collect

previously unreported information. In

this report the data from before 1992

were adjusted to take into account the

later improvements. 

Sexual assault other than rape, first directly asked about in the survey in

1992, has been excluded from these

analyses to make the estimates comparable for the entire period. While

this report describes the victimization

trends for 1973-95, it does not present

Bureau of Justice Statistics

National Crime Victimization Survey

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Criminal Victimization, 1973-95

 A decline in the violent crime rate

beginning in 1994 interrupted a rising

trend that existed after the

mid-1980's.

 In 1995 rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, measured by the National Crime Victimization Survey

(NCVS), and murder, measured by

the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports

(UCR), were at or near a 23-year low.

 The rates of theft and household

burglary have steadily declined since

the late 1970's. In 1995 burglary was 

at about half the rate in 1973. 

 The motor vehicle theft rate in 1995

was well below the highest rate of

1991.

 1973-91 estimates were adjusted to

reflect improved survey methodology

put in place in 1992. The adjustments

preserve the year-to-year changes in

relationships for earlier estimates. 

1973 1980 1990

Rape

Aggravated assault

Simple assault

Total violent crime

Victimization rate per 1,000 persons 

age 12 or older 

1995

Robbery

Collected under the National Crime Survey (NCS) and made 

comparable to data collected under the redesigned methods 

of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Collected under 

the redesigned

NCVS 

Violent crime rates, 1973-95 (with adjustments based 

on the redesign of the National Crime Victimization Survey)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Violent crime includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated and simple assault. 

Murder is not shown separately. Sexual assault is excluded, as explained on page 3. 

Highlights

April 1997, NCJ-163069
numerical estimates of the degree of

change because of the approximate

nature of the adjustments. Also, since

there are a number of equally

appropriate models for adjusting the

data, BJS is not sanctioning one

method to the exclusion of others 

by publishing point estimates. (See

Adjusting NCS data, page 5, for a 

description of the adjustments.)

Long-term trends

Violent crime

As measured by the NCVS, violent

crime encompasses rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and

simple assault (defined on page 6).

Murder is not measured by the survey

because of the inability to interview

murder victims. The discussion of

overall violent crime trends includes

data on murder collected by the FBI’s

Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program, which collects data on selected

crimes reported to the Nation's 17,000

law enforcement agencies.

The violent crime rate in 1995, 44.5

violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, was at about the

same level during the mid to late

1980's, when the violent victimization

rates were at their lowest (figure 1).

During the intervening years, however,

four different short-term trends can be

identified: 

(1) A period of stability existed between 1973 and 1977.

(2) The violent crime rate increased

to a peak in 1981 interrupted only by

a 1-year decline in 1980. 

(3) For the next 5 years until 1986,

the rate decreased.

(4) From 1986 to 1993 the rate of

violent crime increased to nearly a

peak level. This generally increasing trend was interrupted by the

1994-95 decrease, which was the

largest ever measured by the

survey. 

Comparisons of NCVS and UCR violent crime trends are possible when

differing elements of the two programs

are resolved. For this analysis simple

assault, a crime not measured by the

UCR, was removed from the NCVS

estimates, and murder, as measured

by the UCR, was added to the NCVS

data. UCR robberies were adjusted 

to exclude commercial robberies, not

measured by the NCVS. There are

other sources of noncomparability 

between the series, but their effect 

on aggregate trends is not great.1

Total serious violent crime represents

the measure of rape, robbery and aggravated assault measured by the

NCVS and murder measured by the

UCR. In 1995 the number of such

crimes was about the level of the previous low in 1986 (figure 2). 

The number of crimes reported to the

police, as measured by the NCVS,

fluctuated less than the overall measure. Crimes recorded by the police,

measured by the UCR, increased

steadily throughout the period, as did

arrests for violent crime.

2 Criminal Victimization, 1973-95

Offenses in millions

Four measures of serious violent crime

1973 1980 1990 1995

Sources: BJS, National Crime Survey and National Crime

Victimization Survey, and FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

Total serious violent crime (NCVS)

Crimes recorded by the police (UCR)

Arrests (UCR)

Note: Serious violent crimes include murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated 

assault. The light gray area indicates that because of changes made to the 

victimization survey, data prior to 1992 are adjusted to make them comparable 

to data collected under the redesigned methodology.

0

1

2

3

4

Serious victimizations reported to the police (NCVS)

Total serious violent crime (NCVS) : The number of murders recorded by police 

plus the number of rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults from the 

victimization survey, whether or not they were reported to the police

Serious victimizations reported to the police (NCVS): The number of murders 

recorded by police plus the number of rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults that 

victims said were reported to the police, as measured by the victimization survey

Crimes recorded by the police (UCR): The number of murders, forcible rapes, 

robberies, and aggravated assaults in the Uniform Crime Reports of the FBI,

excluding those that involved victims under age 12

Arrests (UCR): The number of persons arrested for murder, forcible rape, 

robbery, or aggravated assault as reported by law enforcement agencies 

to the FBI

Figure 2

1

Biderman, Albert D and James Lynch, Understanding Crime Incidence Statistics: Why the UCR

Diverges from the NCS? New York: Springer 

Verlag, 1991. 
While victimizations reported to police

decreased 5% from 1973 to 1995,

crimes recorded by police rose 116%.

The narrowing of the gap between

what victims say they reported and

what police actually recorded may

largely be the result of improvements

in police record systems and in reporting of crime data to the FBI by local

and State law enforcement agencies.

Robbery

Robbery trends for the past two decades largely paralleled the trends in

overall violent crime (figure 3). Four

distinct intervals can be discerned in

robbery trends. Robbery rates fell between 1974 and 1978, rose until 1981,

fell again between 1981 and 1985, and

began to rise slowly until 1994. It is

too early to determine whether the

1994-95 decrease in the robbery rate

marks the beginning of a longer term

decline or a temporary interruption in

the recently increasing rate of robbery.

Aggravated assault

The long-term trend exhibited by aggravated assault differed greatly from

those of other violent crimes during

1973-95. From 1974 the rate of aggravated assault declined with some interruptions until the mid-1980's. After a

few years of minimal change, the rate

increased from 1990 to 1993. As a

result of the sharp decline in 1995, 

aggravated assault reached its lowest

rate during the 23-year history of

NCVS.

Simple assault

Simple assault, the most common but

least serious violent crime measured

by the NCVS, increased from 1974 to

1977, remained stable until 1979, then

declined until 1989, and rose again until 1991, returning to the peak levels of

the late 1970's. The decrease in 1995

was the first significant change in the

rate of simple assault since 1991.

Murder

Like overall violent crime measured by

the NCVS between 1973 and 1995,

the trends in the murder rate, measured by the FBI’s UCR, exhibited periods of increase and decrease. In 1995

the rate (8.2 per 100,000 persons) was

well below the peak rate for the period

(10.2) experienced in 1981 (figure 4).

Rape

Rates of rape for 1995 were significantly lower than the adjusted rates for

1973 (figure 3). This finding, however,

should be regarded with extreme caution. Before the redesign in 1992 the

survey did not ask respondents

whether they had been victims of sexual assault other than rape or attempted rape. Some victims of these

crimes may have reported such victimizations in response to questions

about rape or other forms of violence.

It is not possible to determine to what

extent crimes now categorized as sexual assaults were included in the data

as rape or attempted rape in earlier

years. To the extent that this occurred,

estimates of rape prior to the redesign

would not be comparable to those

since the redesign. Anomalies in the 

distribution of male and female victims

in the 1992 NCS rape estimates also

raise questions about the adjustments

of rape estimates. (See footnote 5 on

page 7.)

Criminal Victimization, 1973-95 3

1973 1990 1980 1995

Rape

Robbery

Aggravated assault 

0

10

20

30

Simple assault

1973 1990 1980 1995

Violent victimization rates per 1,000

persons age 12 or older, 1973-95 

(with adjustments based on

the redesigned National Crime

Victimization Survey)

The light gray area identifies data collected 

under the National Crime Survey and then 

adjusted to be comparable to data collected 

beginning in 1992 under the redesigned 

methodology of the National Crime 

Victimization Survey. The chart for each

type of victimization uses a separate scale

that makes clear the trends.

0

2.5

5

0

5

10

0

5

10

15

Figure 4

Figure 3

Rate per 100,000 persons 

1973 1990 1980 1995

Source: FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

Murder and nonnegligent 

manslaughter rates, 1973-95

0

5

10
Property crime

In the NCVS, household burglary,

theft, and motor vehicle theft are considered property crimes. Because the

entire household is considered to be

the victim of these crimes, property

crime rates are calculated based on

households rather than persons. 

Prior to the survey redesign, thefts

were categorized as personal crimes if

they occurred away from the victim's

home and as household crimes if they

occurred at or near home. This distinction often proved to be hard to

understand. 

All thefts have been categorized as

household crimes in the redesigned

survey. For this report theft data for

1973-91 have been recalculated to

make them comparable with the revised definition.

Except for an increase between 1973

and 1974, the property crime rate in

the United States steadily declined 

(figure 5).

Theft

After a short period of stability between

1974 and 1977, the rate of theft went

down steadily through the remainder of

the period (figure 6). In 1995 the

household theft rate was about 43%

lower than the adjusted rate in 1973.

Burglary

After a period of slow decline that was

interrupted by an increase between

1980-81, the burglary rate fell each

year through the rest of the period.

The 1995 household burglary rate was

about half that of the adjusted rate of

1973. 

Motor vehicle theft

Despite some short periods of increase, the motor vehicle rate declined

significantly from 1973 through 1985.

From 1985 through 1991, the motor

vehicle theft rate increased sharply,

peaking in 1991. Between 1992 and

1994 the motor vehicle rate remained

unchanged but at a lower level than in

1991; it decreased in 1995.

4 Criminal Victimization, 1973-95

Figure 6

Property victimization rates

per 1,000 households, 1973-95

(with adjustments based on

the redesigned National Crime

Victimization Survey)

1973 1990 1980 1995

Motor vehicle theft

Theft

1973 1990 1980 1995

Burglary

The light gray area identifies data collected 

under the National Crime Survey and then 

adjusted to be comparable to data collected 

beginning in 1992 under the redesigned 

methodology of the National Crime 

Victimization Survey. The chart for each

type of victimization uses a separate scale

that makes clear the trends.

0

50

100

0

10

20

0

100

200

300

400

Victimization rate per 1,000 households 

1973 1980 1990 1995

Theft

Property c rime rates, 1973-95 (with adjustments based

on the redesign of the National Crime Victimization Survey)

0

100

200

300

400

500

The light gray area identifies data collected under the National Crime Survey of BJS and 

then adjusted to be comparable to data collected beginning in 1992 under the redesigned 

methodology of the National Crime Victimization Survey of BJS.

Burglary

Motor vehicle theft

Total property crime

Figure 5
Effect of NCVS redesign 

on victimization estimates

The redesign of the victimization 

survey was a decade-long effort to improve its ability to measure victimization, particularly difficult-to-measure

crimes like rape and sexual assault.2

 

Because of improvements in survey

procedures introduced in the redesign,

estimates of victimization measured by

the survey since 1992 are substantially

higher than pre-redesign victimization

estimates (figure 7). 

In the discussion that follows, the survey prior to the redesign is referred to

as the National Crime Survey (NCS),

and that after the redesign is referred

to as the National Crime Victimization

Survey (NCVS). 

For a variety of reasons, the changes

to the survey affected victimization 

estimates of different crimes and 

segments of the population differently.

For example, NCVS estimates of rape

and assault are substantially higher

than NCS estimates. Simple assaults

overall and those involving no injury

were more affected by the redesign

than were aggravated assaults overall

and those involving injury. Differences

in simple assault account for most of

the differences between the NCS and

NCVS estimates of violent crime.

While there was virtually no difference

between NCVS and NCS estimates of

aggravated assault with injury, the

NCVS estimates of simple assault

without injury were almost twice those

of the NCS. NCVS estimates of theft

are somewhat higher than NCS theft

estimates (unadjusted, but using the

NCVS definition, see Appendix), and

those of robbery, burglary, and motor

vehicle theft are about the same under

both the NCVS and NCS.

Criminal Victimization, 1973-95 5

A brief overview and source guide

to the redesign of the National

Crime Victimization Survey

Begun in 1972, the NCVS underwent

an extensive redesign in 1992. In the

mid-1970's the National Academy of

Sciences had reviewed the NCVS

and found that while the survey was

an effective instrument for measuring

crime, aspects of the survey methodology and scope could be improved.

(See Surveying Crime, National 

Academy of Sciences, 1976.)

In response, BJS sponsored a research consortium of several institutions, involving experts in criminology,

survey design, and statistics, to investigate the issues raised in the review and to make recommendations

to improve the accuracy and utility of

the NCVS. The redesign consortium

completed its work in 1985. (See

New Directions for the National 

Crime Survey, BJS Technical 

Report, NCJ-115571, March 1989.)

In 1986 BJS began introducing questions and procedures judged not to

affect rates. Most of these changes

were made to the incident report 

that has questions for the victim to

describe the characteristics and circumstances of the crime incident.

In 1991 BJS formed a special committee associated with the American

Statistical Association’s Committee

on Law and Justice Statistics to improve the questions on rape, sexual

assault, and domestic violence.

The more comprehensive changes

were tested and phased in on a more

gradual basis. A new crime screening questionnaire was implemented 

in January 1992 through June 1993 

in half the survey sample areas. This

overlap phase-in method allowed 

BJS to produce estimates of annual

change in crime rates and to assess

the effect of the new questionnaire

and procedures on crime measures.

Since July 1993 the redesigned methods have been used in all sample

areas. 

A more detailed description of the

NCVS redesign can be found in Appendix II of Criminal Victimization in

the United States, 1993, BJS report, 

NCJ-151657, May 1996. 

2

See Criminal Victimization in the United States,

1993, BJS report (NCJ-151657), for a detailed 

description of the NCVS redesign.

Victimization rate per 1,000 persons 

age 12 or older 

1973 1980 1990 1995

Simple assault

Rape

Robbery

Violent crime rates, 1973-1994 (with no adjustments )

The dark gray area indicates data collected under the National Crime Victimization 

Survey of BJS after the redesign of the survey. The light gray area indicates data

collected under the National Crime Survey of BJS.

Aggravated assault

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total violent crime

Figure 7
Similarly, for some crimes, the victimization estimates of some population

subgroups were more affected by the

redesign than were estimates for other

population subgroups. For example,

the relative effect of the redesign on

aggravated assault estimates against

whites was greater than that for estimates of this crime against blacks.3

Because changes in methodology

have resulted in increased estimates 

of victimization, to examine victimization trends across the whole 23-year

period, 1973-95, incorporating both

pre-redesign and post-redesign estimates, it is necessary to adjust the

earlier data to account for the effects

of the redesign. It is possible to make

such adjustments because the redesign was implemented by conducting

parallel surveys for 18 months, beginning in January 1992.

Data were collected in half the sample,

using the old methods and in the other

half, using the new methods. Since

July 1993 the entire survey has been

conducted using the redesigned

methodology.

Adjusting NCS data

Computing an adjustment to the NCS

series required choices from among

statistical methods. Each choice involved making particular assumptions

about the statistical model. For this report the pre-1992 data were adjusted

by multiplying the NCS rate for each

major crime class measured by the

survey by a ratio of the NCVS to NCS

rates. 

This adjustment took the 

form of 

NCSay = NCSy

(NCVS92/NCS92) 

where: NCSay = the adjusted victimization rate for a given

crime type in year y (1973-91)

NCSy = the NCS rate for a

given crime type in year y

NCVS92 = the victimization

rate from the redesigned 

survey for a given crime

type in the half-sample in 1992

NCS92 = the victimization 

rate from the old survey 

for a given crime type in 

the half-sample in 1992 

The above adjustment was applied

only to those crimes for which the NCS

and NCVS estimates exhibited significant differences. NCVS rates for 1992

were significantly higher than 1992

NCS rates for five of the seven major

types of crime measured: rape, aggravated assault, simple assault, theft,

and household burglary. NCVS and

NCS rates for the other two crime

types, robbery and motor vehicle theft

were not significantly different in 1992.

Therefore, no adjustment was made 

in the historical trends for robbery and

motor vehicle theft. 

For analyzing trends, as in the discussion above, this adjustment is equivalent to combining the trend for the

pre-1992 period with the trend for the

period starting in 1992. By multiplying

all rates by the same constant, the percent change from one year to the next

for the pre-1992 period is preserved

(table 1). The adjustment affects only

the overall level of the crime rates for

the pre-1992 period.

BJS was guided in its choice of methods by an advisory panel assembled

by the Committee on Law and Justice

Statistics of the American Statistical

Association. The described method

was one of several that could have

been adopted. Other methods may

have produced different results.

The described method for adjusting the

victimization rates is based on a number of assumptions about the impact of

the redesigned survey methodology.

The first assumption is that any differences in the effect of the redesign

across subgroups do not substantially

affect the overall trends in crime.

This assumption derives from previous

research that adjusted victimization

rates after accounting for differential

effects for particular subgroups, like

those for race and sex.4

 For certain

types of crimes, the effect of the redesign did differ across selected

demographic groups and survey

attributes. 

6 Criminal Victimization, 1973-95

Table 1. NCS and NCVS victimization rates, 1992

Rate per 1,000 persons or households

Post-redesign

NCVS

Pre-redesign

NCS

NCVS/NCS

ratio

Personal crimes

Violent crime 47.8 32.1 1.49

Rape 1.8 .7 2.57

Robbery 6.1 5.9 1.03

Aggravated assault 11.1 9.0 1.23

Simple assault 28.9 16.5 1.75

Personal theft 1.8 2.4 .75

Property crime 325.3 264.5 1.23

Household burglary 58.6 48.9 1.20

Household theft 248.2 195.5 1.27

Motor vehicle theft 18.5 20.1 .92

3

More information about these differential effects

of the redesign can be found in Effects of the Redesign on Victimization Estimates, BJS Technical

Report, April 1997 (NCJ-164381).

4

James Lynch and David Cantor, Models for 

adjusting the NCS trends to account for design

difference between the NCS and the NCVS,

memorandum to the NCVS Sub-committee of the

American Statistical Association Committee on

Law and Justice Statistics, May 15, 1996.
The effect of the redesign on violent

crime rates was greater for whites than

for blacks and for persons in higher 

income households than for lower 

income households. However, the 

redesign did not significantly affect 

violent crime rates for such characteristics as victim sex, education, 

urbanization of residence, or survey 

attributes, such as whether the 

household had a telephone or had

been interviewed previously. 

Lynch and Cantor calculated separate

adjustment ratios for each crime type

for each population subgroup that was

affected differently by the redesign.

For example, because the redesign increased aggravated assault rates more

for whites than for blacks, they calculated separate aggravated assault adjustment factors for whites and blacks.

When these adjustments were applied

to data from 1987 to 1991, the overall

adjusted crime rates were not significantly different from the trends computed using the simpler adjustment

method that did not account for demographic or survey characteristics. For

this reason, the pre-1992 data presented were adjusted using the simpler

method which adjusted by crime type

only. BJS applied the more complex

adjustment to selected crimes for the

entire period of 1973 to 1991 and

found that, as with the analysis by

Lynch and Cantor, the trends produced

using the two methods are very similar,

as in the trends of aggravated assault

rates (figure 8).

There are several possible limitations

to these analyses. 

First Small sample sizes in 1992

restricted statistical analysis to relatively large subgroups and/or types

of crimes. 

Second It may be that Lynch and

Cantor did not examine the particular variables or particular breakdowns of variables (such as specific

age groups) that would lead to finding alternative adjustments that deviate from the simple adjustments

described above.

Third It may be that applying adjustments back to 1973, rather than

just to 1987 as Lynch and Cantor

did, might produce different results

between the simple and more complex adjustment methods, although

the analysis presented in the graph

suggests that this would not be the

case, at least for aggravated

assault.5

A second important assumption for the

adjustment is that the effects of the redesign observed in 1992 accurately

represent the long-term effects of the

survey redesign. The introduction of 

a new procedure, as in 1992, may elicit

a reaction from interviewers and/or 

respondents different from later reactions, when they have experienced 

additional exposure to the procedures.

Analysis by the Census Bureau found

very little evidence of a change in the

impact of the new design over the 18

months when both the new and old

methods were being used. However,

this analysis was based on data collected over a relatively short time.

A third important assumption is that

the effects observed in 1992 are similar to what would have occurred if the

redesign had been implemented before

1992. The NCS in 1992 was different

from the survey in 1973. For example,

more interviewing was done by personal visit in 1973. For this reason,

the effects of a redesign at each intervening year might have been different.

This assumption is impossible to test,

however, because the procedures

used for the redesign were never implemented prior to 1992.

This report discusses only adjustments

to crime rates at the total population

level. As stated above, Lynch and

Cantor found that the effect of the redesign did differ among some demographic groups and survey attributes.

Analysts wishing to develop adjustments for population subgroups or survey attributes should review the

reports cited in the bibliography.

Because the adjustments to make to

NCS data comparable to NCVS estimates are not exact and are based 

on the assumptions described above,

no tables have been included

Criminal Victimization, 1973-95 7

1973 1980 1990

Source: BJS, National Crime Survey (NCS) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

1995

0

3

6

9

12

15

Adjusted by race and sex

Adjusted by race

Rate of aggravated assault victimizations 

per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Effects of three adjustment methods on aggravated assault trends

Total population adjustment

(method presented)

Figure 8

5

For rape the overlap sample did not provide a

clean estimate of differences across subgroups.

The NCS estimate for rape produced rates that

were approximately equal for males and females.

This pattern is quite different from that found in the

old design in previous years, and in the new design in 1992 and subsequent years, when (as one

would expect) females had substantially higher

rates of rape than males. This anomalous finding

raised some question about the utility of the overlap sample for adjusting NCS rape rates.
in this report. Electronic worksheets

used to produce graphs and containing

the numerical values not published

here are made available by BJS at its

Internet site: 

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

NCS and NCVS data files, including

data from the 1992 split NCS/NCVS

sample, are available through the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data,

1-800-999-0960. The archive is also

on the Internet and may be reached

through the BJS site.

Appendix

Definitions of crimes

Rape: Carnal knowledge through the

use of force or threat of force, including attempts. Attempted rape and

rape may consist of verbal threats of

rape. Rape includes victimization of

both males and females.

Robbery: Completed or attempted

theft, directly from a person, of property or cash by force or threat of force,

with or without a weapon.

Assault: An unlawful physical attack,

whether aggravated or simple, on a

person. It includes attempted assaults

with or without a weapon, but excludes

rape, attempted rape and attacks 

involving theft or attempted theft (classified as robbery). Assaults are classified by severity into two subcategories:

1. Simple assault: An attack without a

weapon resulting either in minor injury

(that is, bruises, black eyes, cuts,

scratches, or swelling), or in undetermined injury requiring less than 2 days

of hospitalization. It also includes 

attempted assault without a weapon

and verbal threats of assault.

2. Aggravated assault: An attack or

attempted attack with a weapon regardless of whether an injury occurred

as well as an attack without a weapon

when serious injury results. Serious

injury includes broken bones, loss 

of teeth, internal injuries, loss of consciousness, and any injury requiring 

2 or more days of hospitalization. 

Sexual assault: A wide range of victimizations, separate from rape or attempted rape. These crimes include

attacks or attempted attacks generally

involving (unwanted) sexual contact

between victim and offender. Sexual

assaults may or may not involve force

and include such things as grabbing or

fondling. Sexual assault also includes

verbal threats.

Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter: Measured by the FBI’s Uniform

Crime Reporting System, murder is the

willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. Excludes

deaths caused by negligence, suicide

or accident, as well as justifiable

homicides.

Burglary: Unlawful or forcible entry 

or attempted entry of a residence, 

garage, shed, or other structure on 

the premises, usually but not always

involving theft.

Theft: Completed or attempted theft 

of property or cash without personal

contact. In the NCS, prior to the survey design, thefts were categorized as

personal thefts if they occurred away

from the residence, and as household

thefts if they occurred at or in the residence. Since the redesign the NCVS

classifies all thefts together. For this

report, all analyses of NCS theft data

were done using the NCVS definition.

Bibliography

Biderman, Albert D. and James P.

Lynch. Understanding Crime Incidence Statistics: Why the UCR Diverges from the NCS? New York:

Springer Verlag, 1991.

BJS. Criminal Victimization in the

United States 1993. NCJ-151657, 

May 1996.

BJS. The Effects of the Redesign on

Victimization Estimates. NCJ-164381,

April 1997.

BJS. New Directions for the National

Crime Survey. NCJ-115571, March

1989.

Lynch, James and David Cantor. Models for adjusting the NCS trend to account for design difference between

the NCS and the NCVS. Memorandum

to the NCVS Sub-committee of the

American Statistical Association Committee on Law and Justice Statistics, 

May 15, 1996. 

Panel for the Evaluation of Crime 

Surveys, B. K. E. Penick, ed. 

Surveying Crime. Washington,

DC: National Academy of Sciences,

1976.

8 Criminal Victimization, 1973-95

Publication series information

This report belongs to the BJS 

Special Report series. The most 

recent previous publication in the 

series was Lifetime Likelihood of 

Going to State or Federal Prison

(March 1997, NCJ-162032). 

This report is associated with two

others in a set devoted to the National Crime Victimization Survey:

the Bulletin series, Criminal Victimization, 1994-95 (NCJ-162032) and

the Technical Report series, Effects

of the Redesign on Victimization 

Estimates (NCJ-164381).

The Bureau of Justice Statistics 

is the statistical agency of the 

U.S. Department of Justice.

Jan M. Chaiken, Ph.D., is director.

Michael Rand, BJS; James Lynch,

American University; and David Cantor, Westat, wrote this report. Cathy

Maston provided statistical review.

Tom Hester edited and produced the

report. Marilyn Marbrook, assisted

by Jayne Robinson and Yvonne Boston, administered final production.

April 1997, NCJ-163069