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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
|About this report
This report summarizes the key 
judgments and recommendations of a forthcoming NDU Press book entitled The
United States and the Persian Gulf: 
Redesigning U.S. Forces for the Post-
Containment Era. The report was drafted by Richard D. Sokolsky, distinguished
research fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at NDU.
Other contributors include Richard L. Kugler, distinguished research fellow,
INSS; Kenneth Pollack, Director of Research, The Saban Center for Middle East
Policy, The Brookings Institution; Joseph McMillan, distinguished research
fellow, INSS; Eugene B. Rumer, senior 
research fellow, INSS; and Judith S. Yaphe, senior research fellow, INSS. Mr.
Sokolsky can be contacted at (202) 685-2249 or 
[email protected].
Key Points
With or without regime change in Iraq, the U.S.
military posture toward the Persian Gulf will require significant adjustments
over the next decade. The future of Iraq--and the outcome of U.S. efforts to
effect regime change and Baghdad's compliance with United Nations Security
Council resolutions--will be the key driver of the size and character of these
changes. Regardless of how regime change occurs in Iraq--whether it happens
quickly and decisively or is protracted and messy--and whatever type of
post-Saddam regime finally emerges, the United States will need to diversify its
dependence on regional basing and forward presence, as well as reduce the
visibility and predictability of its forward-deployed forces.
In the long term, eliminating Iraq's ability to threaten its neighbors and
destabilize the region is the sine qua non for success in guaranteeing the
security of the Gulf while reducing the political costs that the U.S. military
presence imposes on other American interests and Gulf partners. Unless and until
a stable, moderate, and nonexpansionist regime assumes power in Baghdad,
significant American forces will be strategically "fixed" in the Gulf area,
performing the containment mission. The United States will need to redesign its
forward presence in the region through transformed capabilities and operational
concepts that provide improved combat capabilities while reducing dependence on
forward-deployed forces in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the region.
However, even successful regime change in Iraq does not mean that the United
States can safely end its military engagement in the Persian Gulf, given its
strategic location, role in global energy markets, and vulnerability to other
potential threats. In short, removing Saddam is no panacea. There is no escaping
the U.S. role as a guarantor of Gulf stability. Thus, the United States needs a
viable concept for its future forward presence that can be sustained over the
long haul. There are three broad options: long-term access to the lower Gulf with
reduced ground and air presence; an over-the-horizon presence, as existed
pre-1990 with diversification of bed-down locations; and a combination of
reliance on other regional partners and U.S. capabilities.
Changes Ahead
Significant changes lie ahead for U.S. security strategy in the Persian
Gulf after almost a decade of stasis. In the decade 
between the Gulf War and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World
Trade Center and the Pentagon, the strategy of dual containment of Iraq and Iran
was a key driver of U.S. military planning and force posture for the region. The
overriding American concern was preserving access to Gulf oil at reasonable
prices and keeping the region secure from threat or invasion. The U.S. strategy
benefited from the facts that both Iraq and Iran possessed a limited ability to
project power and influence beyond their borders; the Gulf States acquiesced in a
significant U.S. military presence on their soil despite the domestic costs; and
the United States was reasonably successful, at least until the second
Palestinian intifada in September 2000, in insulating U.S. relationships
with key Gulf States from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
At the end of the Clinton administration, it seemed safe to assume that the
regional security environment would continue to evolve more or less on its
present trajectory, and the challenge confronting the United States was how to
manage its forward presence for the long haul under increasingly stressful
conditions. This premise is no longer valid. Most importantly, the strategy of
dual containment, which is just barely alive, will expire in one way or
another--in all likelihood because the United States decides to end Saddam's rule.
U.S. success in engineering a regime change in Baghdad will require a substantial
increase in U.S. forward-deployed forces, probably followed by a multinational
occupation of Iraq that is likely to include a significant U.S. military
component.
Even if regime change does not occur in Iraq, other factors are likely to put
pressure on the United States to alter the shape of its military posture toward
the region. The enduring long-term campaign against global terrorism will still
demand a closer look at U.S. policies toward the Persian Gulf that undermine this
effort, including the U.S. military presence. Political and social trends in
Saudi Arabia will make the ruling family even more wary of U.S. forces on their
soil. Iran and Iraq are likely to improve their conventional capabilities and,
more importantly, to deploy chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear
(CBRN) weapons and longer-range ballistic missiles to threaten U.S. access and
force projection capabilities. In addition, the demands of the war on terrorism,
and U.S. defense strategy more broadly, could make it increasingly difficult to
sustain current military operations in the region.
With or without a regime change in Iraq, the U.S. military posture toward the
region will become increasingly brittle unless it adapts in creative ways to
these looming changes. If the Gulf security environment stays on its present
course--continued deterioration and eventual collapse of dual containment and no
American effort to reorder the geopolitical landscape--the central dilemma facing
U.S. policymakers will be reconciling the military requirements of a containment
strategy with the political imperatives of reducing the American military profile
in the Gulf. By the same token, the elimination of Iraq as a strategic threat or
the installation of a new but equally antagonistic regime would confront the
United States with a number of complex and novel policy choices: the role of
Saudi Arabia in U.S. regional security strategy, the degree to which a friendly
and pro-American Iraq could become the focus of U.S. regional defense strategy,
and the type of military presence the United States should maintain in the region
if the removal of the Saddam regime ushers in a period of prolonged instability
and disorder inside Iraq and beyond.
Regional Dynamics
In thinking about alternative U.S. force postures in the region under a
variety of circumstances, a key question is how changing security priorities and
threat perceptions will affect Gulf State attitudes toward U.S. presence. If the
geopolitical status quo continues, the key factors influencing Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) defense and security policies are likely to diverge from those of
the United States in several important ways.
From the GCC perspective, neither Iraq nor Iran is seen as a major or imminent
danger to regional security. Iraq has been effectively weakened and contained,
Iran has been tamed, and concerns about Iraqi or Iranian weapons of mass
destruction (WMD) proliferation take a back seat to addressing domestic
difficulties.
U.S. policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has eroded U.S. influence in
the Gulf and increased the sense of vulnerability of Gulf Arab regimes.
Furthermore, public opinion in the GCC states is wary of the U.S.-led war on
terrorism, viewing it mainly as an anti-Islamic campaign. In this climate, many
Gulf State rulers see their ties to the United States as a growing political
liability.
Support for sanctions against and isolation of Iraq has evaporated. Saddam has
gained the backing of most Arab and Muslim states for an end to sanctions and
opposition to a unilateral U.S. military attack. He has also been able to mend
fences with Saudi Arabia and paper over tensions with Kuwait. United Nations (UN)
agreement on reshaping sanctions to ease their impact on the Iraqi population
will not restore support for sanctions among GCC governments or populations.
The preference of GCC governments is to restore a balance of power similar to the
one that existed prior to Operation Desert Storm--a balance maintained by
de facto partnership with a regional power and backed by a less visible U.S.
military presence. The realization of this vision will require a delicate
balancing act between maintaining a necessary U.S. military presence, gradually
improving relations with Iraq and Iran, and moderating domestic discontent over
American policies. Regardless of how the Gulf States cope with this dilemma, they
will remain at odds with the United States over their willingness to reach an
accommodation with a weakened Saddam and a cautious, internally divided Iran,
even as both countries acquire WMD and long-range ballistic missiles. This fault
line is unlikely to prompt the Gulf States to seek a complete withdrawal of U.S.
forces or to leave the U.S. security umbrella. However, when coupled with popular
outrage at U.S. support for Israel, it will lead GCC governments to distance
themselves further from U.S. policies and reduce their cooperation with U.S.
military forces.
Deteriorating Status Quo
The future survival of Saddam Husayn's Iraq will be the most critical
variable in determining the evolution of the U.S. military presence in the
region. As long as Iraq constitutes a threat to U.S. interests in the Gulf, the
United States has little choice but to maintain the capability to deter or defeat
that threat with a combination of in-theater and rapidly deployable forces. The
decision of previous administrations to deal with Iraqi defiance of UN Security
Council resolutions through a policy of containment has until now driven the
United States to maintain the status quo in its force presence rather than adopt
a more sustainable concept of Gulf security at reduced levels of presence, as was
envisioned immediately after Desert Storm. Under present conditions,
therefore, the U.S. military footprint in the Gulf is determined by the military
concept of operations for the region's defense against Iraq.
A decision not to use U.S. military force to evict Saddam in favor of continuing
long-term containment must confront three realities: first, sanctions are already
almost impossible to enforce; second, Iraq will eventually possess and deploy WMD
and longer-range ballistic missiles; and third, the U.S. military presence in the
region, especially Saudi Arabia, is a source of growing resentment and a mounting
domestic liability for the ruling families of host countries. Hence, the
political and military risks to the U.S. force posture in the region are likely
to grow, and efforts to maintain the status quo will only exacerbate these
dangers. Containing a hostile Iraq under these circumstances over the long term
would require a much larger and open-ended U.S. military presence than we
currently maintain--one that might be more than the local traffic will bear in
most of the GCC states.
Redesigning Forces
Consequently, if the United States decides to maintain a strategy of
containment, it will need to think creatively about how to sustain it over the
long haul. The challenge is to create a new posture for peacetime presence and
wartime reinforcement that supports the execution of U.S. defense strategy
without creating an unsustainable footprint in the region or draining the overall
U.S. force posture of too many forces and resources. This tension can be
effectively managed by realigning U.S. forces in the Gulf States, taking
advantage of new basing concepts, enhancing the combat capabilities of
forward-deployed forces, diversifying patterns of deployment, giving higher
priority to expanded prepositioning, and investing new energy into expanding
multilateral security cooperation. Equally important, the successful creation of
a spearhead force and other improvements in U.S. rapid force projection
capability would help to alleviate pressures to continuously maintain larger
combat forces in the Gulf as well as to reduce dependence on large, inflexible
reinforcement plans if the Iraqi and Iranian military threats continue to
grow.1
Realigning Forces. While the U.S. forward presence cannot and should not
be eliminated or even significantly reduced as long as a hostile Iraqi regime
remains in place, it can and should be made less visible, and less seemingly
permanent, than it is today. In the short term, to minimize political risks,
changes in the size and configuration of U.S. forward-deployed forces will need
to be carried out incrementally, since technological advances in U.S. force
projection capabilities will not be in hand for some time. In the longer run, as
the U.S. military transforms and political constraints on large stationed forces
grow in intensity, it should be possible to accelerate the pace of change because
the United States will be able to bring overwhelming force to bear on the
battlefield without having to rely on a substantial permanent presence in the
theater. At the same time, bringing U.S. military posture in the Gulf in line
with the overall direction of transformation will entail adjustments in U.S.
relations with the Gulf States that need to be carefully thought through.
The focal point of force realignment is inevitably Saudi Arabia, given its
central role in U.S. regional strategy, its size and importance, and the
considerable discontent in both the United States and Saudi Arabia over how the
U.S. military presence there is handled. A key question with Saudi Arabia is, how
much reduction is enough? The United States operates out of only one major base
in the Kingdom, which constrains realignment options. Are less tangible ways of
underscoring our commitment to Saudi security available that would not
concurrently compromise deterrence and U.S. combat capabilities?
Herein lies a central political paradox: the need to reduce the U.S. footprint in
Saudi Arabia without abandoning the country. This longstanding conundrum has no
simple solution. Regardless of the outcome of the Iraq scenario, the United
States will need to maintain forces in the region, and Saudi Arabia will continue
to play an important role in its forward-deployed posture. Withdrawing from Saudi
Arabia would send the inaccurate political signal to regional players and
domestic opponents of the Saudi regime that the United States was washing its
hands of the Kingdom. At the same time, however, the U.S. military presence in
Saudi Arabia is having deleterious consequences for regime stability. In time,
this circle can be squared by projected improvements in U.S. force projection
capabilities and new operational concepts.
Undoubtedly, more can be done in other GCC countries, although political and
physical limits exist on how much of the military burdens they can pick up from
Saudi Arabia. In the immediate future, the United States is wisely pursuing Qatar
as the most attractive alternative to Saudi Arabia for additional prepositioning
and regular deployments of U.S. strike aircraft. Over the longer term,
possibilities could be pursued with Oman. None of these locations, either singly
or in combination, could ever replace Saudi Arabia entirely, and there are
grounds for questioning whether shifting more of the political and military
burdens of supporting U.S. military strategy to the smaller Gulf States is
sustainable in the long haul. Nonetheless, deemphasizing the military component
of the U.S.-Saudi relationship could have a positive effect on political
development in the Kingdom. Moreover, while the United States should diversify
the countries upon which it depends and create redundant capabilities in multiple
locations, it should do so out of political and military prudence, not as a step
toward jettisoning the relationship with Saudi Arabia. That relationship needs to
be repaired, not trashed.
New Basing Concepts.The Persian Gulf region is a good place to explore
the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of mobile offshore basing. In the near
term, a particularly useful step would be to create command and control
capabilities afloat to improve combat redundancy and eliminate the ability of any
regional state to veto U.S. operations by blocking access to command facilities.
Rotating forces in and out of locations outside the Gulf, such as the Red Sea
littoral and South Asia, could be worthwhile, particularly if the U.S. presence
was periodic rather than continuous at any location. Militarily, this concept
will become increasingly practicable as force transformation creates capabilities
to deliver decisive force from longer range. In the more distant future, a mobile
offshore base might be large enough to accommodate aircraft that currently fly
out of Saudi locations.
Enhanced Combat Capabilities. Reducing the number and visibility of
forward-deployed forces while maintaining necessary military capabilities will
require qualitative improvements of forward-deployed capabilities. There are
several priorities for force enhancements. First, defense against missile attacks
should be bolstered; additional Patriot advanced capability units and high-tech
aircraft for rapid strikes against WMD targets should 
be stationed in the region; forces deployed 
in the Gulf should have first claim on next-generation ballistic missile defense
systems; and the Gulf should be used as a test-bed for early deployment of
emergency missile defense capabilities and for maintaining a continuous presence
of these assets in the region. Second, steps should be taken to lessen the
vulnerability of local bases and infrastructure to enemy missile strikes and
related antiaccess/area denial threats. In addition to improved missile defenses,
ports, airfields, and command posts should be hardened and diversified, and
consequence management capabilities should be stationed in the region. Finally,
efforts should be accelerated to create the spearhead force for the Gulf that
will be capable of rapid deployment and employment without the benefit of
prepositioned combat forces.
Deployment Patterns. The continuous presence of U.S. land-based forces at
five or six major fixed locations has undesirable political and operational
consequences. The United States should reduce the visibility and predictability
of such fixed deployments by adopting a rotational peacetime posture that relies
on regular movements of Army, Air Force, and Navy units in and out of a wider
variety of locations for operations and training and exercises with local forces.
Critical infrastructure would be replicated at multiple locations, enabling
forces to be positioned in a number of possible configurations depending on the
contingency and political circumstances. The Air Force should regularly deploy
strategic bombers to the region for joint and combined exercises; afloat, the
Navy and Marine Corps should fully fund programs that would permit early
deployment to the Gulf of expeditionary strike groups/forces that would improve
their ability to strike land targets from augmented Marine amphibious groups and
carrier groups.
Prepositioning. Prepositioning of heavy and bulky equipment remains the
key to rapid reinforcement of the Gulf region and therefore to the eventual
reduction in the number of regularly deployed forces. While substantial progress
has been made in this area, there is room for improving the flow rates for
arriving U.S. forces. Additional bare-base sets should be located at various
airfields in the region as well as additional Army brigade sets of equipment; the
Navy and Marine Corps should be directed to invest more heavily in equipment that
would be prepositioned afloat in the region. For example, the Navy and Marine
Corps should be encouraged to invest more heavily in research, development,
testing, and evaluation of the maritime prepositioning force and the sea-based
logistics concept, which together would improve deployment times, reduce the U.S.
footprint ashore, and improve the ability of U.S. forces to operate in an
antiaccess environment. Because of both political and operational factors, an
expanded prepositioning program would be most successful if Saudi Arabia granted
approval to place critical war reserve stocks in the Kingdom. Although the Saudis
have rejected these proposals in the past, with some U.S. prodding they could
come to see the political and military advantages of trading forces-in-place for
prepositioned material.
Regional Security Cooperation. Overcoming obstacles to improving regional
security cooperation will be difficult, but it is one of the most practical steps
the United States could take to reduce its continuing profile in the Gulf. It is
unrealistic to expect the Gulf States to defend the region against major
aggression without U.S. military intervention. But this is the wrong standard to
apply; it is not unreasonable to expect them to provide forces to delay a major
attack and inflict costs on an aggressor and to be capable of handling minor
regional contingencies (for example, raids on offshore oil installations) without
relying on U.S. forces. In other words, the mountain the Gulf States have to
climb to improve their military effectiveness is not as high as commonly
portrayed, partly because they do not need to be held to Western standards and
partly because the United States has not made a serious and sustained effort in
this area, its sales of sophisticated military equipment notwithstanding. Indeed,
when the United States has made such a commitment, as in the case of Kuwait,
there have been measurable results. There are a number of steps that could be
taken to redress shortfalls in GCC capabilities. For instance, the United States
could:
discourage the Gulf States
from focusing their attention on unrealistic and ineffective standing
multilateral forces like Peninsula Shield at the expense of developing force
specialization and niche capabilities.
recognize formally the GCC
as an international organization, which would permit the United States to provide
enhanced training and supplies.
adjust the U.S. Central
Command exercise program to encourage intra-GCC cooperation; instead of trying to
develop U.S. exercises with the GCC as a group, priority should be given to
developing trilateral and quadrilateral exercises with forces from the United
States.
encourage the GCC to adopt
selected NATO standardization agreements to promote interoperability. The GCC
states lack the capability to replicate the NATO standardization process, but
this is not a standard to which they need be held.
explore ways of developing a
combined GCC professional military education system to raise the standard of
command and staff work, promote common doctrine, and build personal links among
officers.Coalition Forces.The United States should also try to improve
extraregional contributions to Gulf security. The GCC states are unlikely to
accept a major peacetime role for non-Gulf Arab countries in regime security,
which would put their survival at the mercy of the vagaries of inter-Arab
politics. Nonetheless, there would be substantial political, if not military,
benefits if larger or more capable forces from Islamic countries (for example,
Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, and Morocco) could play a more meaningful part in the
Gulf security equation in an emergency. As in 1990-1991, the presence of Islamic
forces in an international coalition would strengthen the perceived political
legitimacy of bringing outside forces into the region in a crisis. The United
States could fa�ilitate improved extraregional contributions to defense of the
Gulf without resorting to the formal arrangements that have proven ineffective in
the past. For example, the United States could:
restructure the
U.S.-Egyptian security assistance program to emphasize the capability to deploy a
significant Egyptian force using U.S. (or allied) lift in a regional crisis
exercise Egyptian,
Jordanian, and other capabilities to deploy small heavy forces to hotspots,
including refocusing the biennial Bright Star exercise with Egypt
create a Gulf security fund
within the U.S. foreign military financing program to underwrite the development
of expeditionary capabilities of regional powers so that, in extremis,
they could contribute more effectively to the defense of the Gulf.When Saddam Goes
Looking beyond a change of the Iraqi regime, the military and political
calculus about the continuing U.S. presence that might be required in the longer
run will depend on how that change takes place--with or without a U.S. military
intervention or occupation of Iraq--as well as the damage inflicted by the change
itself, and what kind of government succeeds Saddam Husayn.
If regime change occurs without direct U.S. military involvement, the U.S.
presence required in the region will depend to some extent on what kind of
government replaces Saddam. Given the weakness and disorganization of the
ostensibly democratic Iraqi opposition, the most likely successor would be
another strongman emerging from the existing political milieu and sharing its
fundamentally hostile orientation. Somewhat less likely, but also plausible,
would be a weak government focused primarily on resolving internal economic and
political problems.
Depending on which of these comes to pass, the new regime may recognize the
futility of continuing defiance of the international community and redirect
resources from offensive programs, including WMD, effectively limiting its
capabilities and allowing the United States to restructure its deterrent
capability in the region. The problem is that judging what kind of regime we are
dealing with is apt to be difficult, since even a hostile leader may find it
tactically useful to play along with the international community by accepting WMD
inspections, renouncing territorial claims, and taking whatever other steps are
necessary to secure the end of sanctions and buy time to consolidate power. This
uncertainty will be all the more serious should civil strife follow the collapse
of the Ba'athist machinery of repression. In the face of such uncertainty, the
United States will want to proceed cautiously before substantially reducing its
quick-response capabilities. Moreover, there will be a high risk that the United
States will be called on by Iraq's worried neighbors to play a military role in
the post-Saddam transition--at best, to provide humanitarian assistance; at worst,
to intervene to prevent the collapse of the Iraqi state if order begins to
deteriorate.
If regime change comes about as a result of U.S. intervention, we will face a
somewhat different set of demands. In the near term, a substantial U.S. military
presence is very likely to be required in Iraq, either as an occupation force or
to assist the new regime in getting control of and rebuilding the country. On the
positive side, such a presence will allow the United States to satisfy itself
that Iraqi weapons programs are totally and completely dismantled and to shape
the new government and the new Iraqi army to the greatest possible degree.
Furthermore, as long as U.S. forces are present in Iraq, the necessity of
defending neighboring states against Iraq will cease to exist. On the negative
side, the challenge of pacifying and policing the country should not be
underestimated, nor should that of building rule of law and a functioning civil
society where neither has existed for many years.
Finally, neither of these alternatives--an internally driven succession or one
achieved through U.S. intervention--leads easily to a stable, sustainable,
legitimate outcome. A successor regime that comes to power by force and controls
the country through a more or less effective continuation of the historic pattern
of authoritarian repression will share not only the present regime's methods and
attitudes but also its lack of legitimacy. Conversely, a regime installed by U.S.
military force could be viewed as a tool of neoimperialism and an American puppet
regime. Groups that supported the U.S. intervention would be looking for a payoff
afterward that in some cases would be contrary to the interests that the United
States was trying to protect, such as the territorial integrity of Iraq. The
steps that could be taken to mitigate those perceptions and disappointments, such
as full enfranchisement of the entire population (that is, elections that
resulted in political dominance by the 65 percent Shi'a majority in a democratic
state and formal autonomy for the Kurds), would pose problems of their own.
The precise permutations are thus practically unlimited. Nevertheless, it is
reasonable, in thinking through U.S. responses to these differing outcomes, to
identify three alternative models:
The European or East Asian
model, under which the United States is viewed as the only credible and
acceptable stabilizing force for a critical region. This assumes that either Iraq
or Iran, if not both, would continue to present a threat to U.S. interests even
under less objectionable regimes and that the GCC states would be unable or
unwilling to develop their own capabilities to meet those threats. Under this
alternative, the United States would seek long-term access to bases in the lower
Gulf for a robust but reduced ground and air presence--probably about a composite
air wing and a heavy battalion task force--that would continue in the foreseeable
future. In addition, this alternative would envision the presence in the Gulf of
a carrier task force most if not all the time.
An over-the-horizon
presence, similar to the normal pre-1990 arrangement but with greater
diversification of bed-down locations. The United States would attempt, through
diplomacy and other means, to ensure that Iraq and Iran balance each other in
such a way that neither of them is strong enough to challenge vital U.S.
interests. Meanwhile, the United States would attempt to strengthen friendly
forces and ensure through a combination of prepositioning, exercises, transformed
military capabilities and operational concepts, and assets to counter the
antiaccess/area denial capabilities of Iraq and Iran, that U.S. and coalition
forces could return rapidly in a crisis.
A combination of reliance on
local and U.S. capabilities, based on the assumption that the regional situation
would not tolerate a continuing U.S. military presence at anything resembling
current levels. Enhancements to local forces would be combined with active
encouragement of regional cooperation, continued improvements in U.S. rapid
deployment capabilities, and a continuing force presence well below that
currently in place, maintained through a series of deployments shifting among
various locations.
In sum, while more aggressive efforts to unseat Saddam would not be cost-free,
neither would be the alternatives. Either a continuation of the policy of active
containment or a policy of retrenched defense and deterrence would require the
maintenance of a significant military presence in the Gulf, with all its
attendant political and security risks for both the Gulf Arab countries and the
United States. Moreover, the longer the United States needs military access to
the Gulf States to deal with a continuing Iraqi threat, the longer it will be
identified with resistance by some Gulf states to political evolution.
Whither Iran?
The second key variable that will determine U.S. success in bringing peace
and stability to the Persian Gulf over the coming decade is how Iran's political
evolution plays out and is reflected in Iranian foreign policy. Iran's political
factions are gridlocked, and neither side is likely to emerge the victor any time
soon. U.S. criticisms of Iran's lack of cooperation in the war on terrorism have
strengthened internal elements opposed to dialogue with the United States and
driven both factions into an unwanted embrace at U.S. expense. Nonetheless, it is
not inconceivable that the United States and Iran might someday normalize
relations. Realistically, however, change in Iran will take years to play out and
is unlikely to yield a regime that is fully responsive to U.S. interests. Indeed,
any Iranian government will see itself as the dominant power in the Gulf--a role
that any U.S. administration will be loath to accept. Thus, even under optimal
conditions, there inevitably will be tension between Washington and Tehran over
the structure of regional security--and conditions are likely to be far from
optimal, as Iran continues its quest to acquire weapons of mass destruction. In
short, while it is likely that Iran's political evolution will eventually allow
the United States to adjust its commitments and deployments in the Gulf, it is
unlikely that it will be able to shed them altogether, let alone soon.
Nonetheless, Iran should not be seen as the major determinant of U.S. military
presence in the Gulf region--especially land-based presence--under foreseeable
circumstances. It is true that Iran has upgraded its military capabilities in the
past several years, but primarily in the areas of naval forces, air defense, and
ballistic missiles. Iran's amphibious warfare capability is extremely limited,
and it has no plausible way of bringing significant land force to bear against
the GCC states. Iran could more seriously challenge U.S. interests through
heightened support for terrorism and renewed support for subversion, as well as
through the threat or use of WMD or conventional missiles, airstrikes against
critical petroleum infrastructure, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and
interdiction of seaborne movement of naval forces or commerce. The Gulf Arab
states are quite capable, however, of dealing with the possibility of airstrikes,
just as the U.S. Navy can handle any attempts to close the sealanes. Otherwise,
none of the other threats would require the presence of significant U.S.
land-based forces, with the possible exception of missile defense units. They
certainly would not require a presence beyond that already required to deal with
Iraq.
Domestic Change
The third critical variable in determining U.S. success in bringing peace
and stability to the Persian Gulf and in uprooting terrorism from the region is
how effectively regional governments respond to pressures for domestic change.
Regardless of the ultimate fate of the Saddam Husayn regime or the strategic
character and intentions of a successor regime, fighting terrorism needs to
become a central element in the redefinition of U.S. security strategy in the
Gulf with one important caveat: the relationship between political reform and
terrorism--or "reform to forestall revolution"--is extremely complicated and needs
to be approached with great caution.
September 11 graphically illustrated that any strategy aimed at defeating
terrorism must focus heavily on the region, where so many of the terrorists
originated and so many ideas and attitudes that motivate terrorist behavior have
sunk deep roots. Devising a coherent antiterrorist strategy poses a serious
conceptual challenge. In recent decades, the American people have come to expect
national strategy to be driven by a conjunction of vital interests and core
values. In the Persian Gulf, however, U.S. security relations with regional
states are not built on shared values, of which there are few, but on shared
interests, of which there are many. Managing the divergence between interests and
values will only grow more difficult in the coming decade.
Suppressing terrorism on a long-term basis will require addressing the conditions
that breed it, principally political repression, failed economic liberalization
and reform, and lack of political reform, including popular participation in
governance. Hence, achieving political stability and ending terrorism in the Gulf
will depend to some extent on political, economic, and social reforms,
particularly responding effectively to popular demands to open the political
system. It is therefore in the interest of the United States to encourage
political pluralism, good governance, transparency in decisionmaking, and
economic liberalization.
But how hard should the United States press for an agenda of democratization,
respect for human rights, and expanding civil liberties and economic
opportunities? Although Saudi Arabia and other countries in and around the
Persian Gulf share some measure of the blame for the climate that breeds
anti-Western terrorism, dealing with this problem presents dilemmas. On the one
hand, the United States will be accused of imperialism if it pressures regional
governments to make democratic reforms and improve their human rights
performance. Perhaps more importantly, applying such pressure could be
counterproductive. For many countries, for instance, abandoning repressive
practices could have unintended and undesirable consequences--among which is
allowing at least a short-term flourishing of radical movements, including those
that preach and practice violence against America and the West. Likewise,
granting full freedom of expression to media that already sanction vitriolic
anti-American sentiments could increase rather than diminish such rhetoric. Still
more worrisome, liberalization could unleash passions that are difficult to
control or to channel into orderly and meaningful political change.
In short, the consequences of greater pluralism in most Gulf countries,
particularly Saudi Arabia, would be governments (and foreign policies) that are
much less friendly to the United States than the current regimes. Indeed, it is
difficult to pressure local rulers to change domestic political arrangements that
have served them well, especially when the United States is asking them to take
risks on other issues--for example, supporting a U.S. invasion of Iraq. These
regimes would not have any easier of a time supporting contentious U.S. policies
if their political systems were more pluralistic.
On the other hand, if the United States does not apply pressure for reforms, it
will be criticized for propping up regimes that are seen by their opponents as
corrupt and oppressive and thus will remain a lightning rod for anti-American
violence. This dilemma underscores an important point about U.S. interests and
military presence in the Gulf. The objective of U.S. involvement in the region is
stability, not preservation of the status quo. America has no interest in the
kind of stability that results from immobility, and structures that try to remain
rigid are apt to be overwhelmed by the currents swirling around them. The U.S.
presence in the Gulf is primarily intended to maintain the flow of oil by
preventing a hostile power from establishing hegemony over the region; it is not
designed to shield regimes--however friendly to our interests--from having to deal
constructively with the implications of a changing world.
Nonetheless, over the course of 3 centuries Islamic societies have sought to
confront the challenges of Westernization and modernization by alternately
imitating and rejecting them, with neither option providing satisfaction. The
results of this failure are visible throughout the Islamic world. Moreover,
political and social Westernization that failed when it was embraced by
indigenous elites is even less likely to succeed if it is foisted upon the region
by outside forces. To be successful and survivable, political reform must develop
organically, adapting the region's traditional religious, political, and cultural
practices to modern realities. Thus, the best course of action for the United
States is to encourage evolutionary adaptation. This is necessarily a delicate
task, and whether it is feasible remains an open question.
Conclusion
For the United States, there is no escaping the role of security guarantor
of the Gulf for the foreseeable future. But trying to guarantee that security
through a large-scale, visible, and permanent-looking U.S. presence will erode
security, undermine security relationships with key Gulf States, impede needed
political reforms, stir domestic opposition within Saudi Arabia and other Gulf
States, and feed anti-American Islamic extremism. In the absence of successful
regime change in Iraq, the transformation of military capabilities provides a way
to guarantee security while reducing the military footprint, but the adjustment
of the U.S. profile will need to be carried out before the promise of
transformation can be realized. Unfortunately, time is not on the U.S. side: if
left to his own devices, Saddam will become more threatening in the years ahead.
Thus, until Saddam disappears from the scene and Iraq is no longer a menace to
U.S. interests and regional security, there is scope for reengineering the U.S.
force posture, but it would be foolhardy to make significant reductions in U.S.
forward-deployed forces.
If the continued survival of the Saddam Husayn regime (or a hostile successor
regime) extracts huge costs for regional security, success in removing him and
his circle would yield an enormous payoff. It would not eliminate all problems
from the region, but it would drastically reduce the requirement for U.S.
military forces to deal with the problems that remained. It would give Iraq the
opportunity to develop, for the first time in decades, a system of government
that would not depend on a permanent state of hostility with its neighbors to
justify its domestic power structure. It would allow the United States and the
Gulf Arabs to return their relationships to a more normal footing, free of many
of the irritants that inevitably arise from the presence of foreign forces in an
alien culture. Most importantly, it would provide the opportunity for the Gulf
States and others in the Middle East to develop and nurture new institutions and
processes, firmly rooted in the religious and cultural legacy of the region, that
will allow their people to thrive and prosper in the 21st century. Only by doing
so can they hope to escape the cycle of warfare, repression, and terrorism that
was the lot of so many throughout the previous century. Simply put, the status
quo has its own costs and is not sustainable over the next decade. The costs of
going to war with Iraq have been fully aired and are well understood. The costs
of not going to war are far less appreciated.
The potential benefits of toppling Saddam will need to be carefully weighed
against the substantial costs to the United States if it has to occupy Iraq
indefinitely to ensure an orderly transition, preserve territorial integrity, and
protect the new regime. With or without regime change in Iraq, however, the
United States needs to fashion a post-containment strategy that reduces the
political, diplomatic, and military burdens on both the United States and its
Gulf State partners of meeting America's security responsibilities. Saudi Arabia
needs to remain an important pillar of U.S. security strategy for the region, but
one that the United States puts less weight on in the future.
Note
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 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A spearhead force for the Gulf would be the lead element of a larger U.S.
reinforcement plan for warfighting. Configured to deploy swiftly within a few
days, its mission in defending Kuwait against an Iraqi invasion, for example,
would be to gain control of the early battle (the halt phase) by carrying out
early strike operations, thus setting the stage for bigger operations later. To
accomplish this mission, it would also need to be capable of gaining access
against area denial threats and securing key infrastructure. A spearhead force
would be composed of joint assets, would possess sophisticated technologies, and
would be an early candidate for transformation. It might include, for example,
airborne warning and control systems and joint surveillance and target attack
radar systems, two or three fighter wings backed by strategic bombers, an
expeditionary strike group and/or expeditionary strike force, and two or three
ground brigades with enough tanks, attack helicopters, and self-propelled
artillery for high-speed, lethal maneuvers. 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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  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