Vented Hearth Products Energy Use and National Energy Savings

Prepared for Final Rule

Standing Pilot Energy use per unit

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

National Energy Savings (NES)

April 2010 Final Rule NES Results

April 2010 Final Rule Heated Hearth Product NES (2013-2042)

NES Results

April 2010 Final Rule Vented Hearth Heaters NES minus Decorative Units (2013-2042)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products NES from Pilot Removal (2015-2044)

Total Vented Hearth Heaters and Decorative Hearth Products NES

Net additional NES after accounting for April 2010 Heating Products Final Rule
MMBtu/yr 2.61

Quads 0.19

Quads 0.06

Quads 0.17

Quads 0.22

Quads 0.04
Pilot Light Energy Use per Unit

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Parameter Units

Annual Burner Hours of Operation (Average) hours/yr

Pilot light used year round:

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light year round %

Average Hours of year-round continuous pilot light operation hours

Pilot light used part of the year:

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light for a part of the year %

Average Hours of partial year continuous pilot light operation hours

Pilot light used only when unit is use:

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light only when the unit is in use %

Average Hours when unit is in use pilot light operation hours

Pilot Hours of Operation (Average) hours/yr

Pilot Energy Use per hour (Average) Btu/h

Annual Energy Use of Pilot Light Ignition (Average) MMBtu/yr

Pilot Light Energy Use References:

Reference Type Value (Btu/h)

GRI Report (Field Testing of 59 Hearth Households) 500 to 2800 (avg. 1300)

Intertek Testing Service (Testing Service) Majority less than 800

Heatilator (Major Manufacturer) 800 to 1500

EER Consulting (HVAC consulting company) 1000 to 1500

NRCAN website (Government Agency in Canada) 600 to 1500

Pittsburg Gas Grill and Heater Co. (Distributor/Dealer) 1000

Leonard's Stone & Fireplace (Distributor/Dealer) 800 to 1500

Fireside Hearth & Home (Distributor/Dealer) 800 to 1500

Fireplace Professionals (Distributor/Dealer) 600 to 900
Average Value

37.5

25%

8760

50%

2190

25%

37.5

3257

800

2.61

Product Type

Hearth

Gas Logs & Fireplaces

Hearth

Gas Fireplaces

Gas Fireplaces

Hearth

Hearth

Hearth

Hearth
References

Houck, James. Residential Decorative Gas Fireplace Usage Characteristic. Report prepared for HPBA. 2010.

on conversations with manufacturers, distributors, dealers, and installers). DOE assumed this was the same for 

vented decorative hearth products.

8760 hours in a year

100% minus (year round fraction) minus (used when unit is in use fraction)

Based on NOPR comments that frequently hearth product pilot lights are only on during the heating season (i.e. on average use

propane fireplace units (23% according to RECS 2009) as well as for other NG units which might be operated in 

this way.

Equals burner operating hours.

Calculated

Based on various sources (see below)

Complete Reference

GRI 1997 Study: Menkedick, J., Hartford, P., Collins, S., Chumaker, S., Wells, D. “Topic Report: Hearth Products Study (1995

Intertek Testing Service. NOPR Comment # 0198 to Hearth Products NOPR. (http://www.regulations.gov/#%21docketDetail;d

Heatilator. Common Questions. (URL: http://www.heatilator.com/customerCare/searchFaq.asp?c=Gas)

EER Consulting, “Input Rate of Pilot Burners on Gas Fireplaces” (Consultant Report). EER Consulting. November 6, 2011.

NRCAN. Personal: Residential: Chapter 3 - All About Gas Fireplaces (URL: http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/Publications/infosource/Pu

Pittsburg Gas Grill and Heater Co. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.pittsburghgasgrill.com/faq.html)

Leonard's Stone & Fireplace. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.leonardsstoneandfireplace.net/faq.html)

Fireside Hearth & Home. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.firesidehearthandhome.com/faq.php)

Fireplace Professionals. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.fireplaceprofessionals.com/faqs.htm)
ason (i.e. on average used 1/4 of the year).

th Products Study (1995-1997)”. Gas Research Institute (GRI). September 1997. GRI-97/0298.

ov/#%21docketDetail;dct=FR+PR+N+O+SR+PS;rpp=50;so=DESC;sb=postedDate;po=0;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0047)

. November 6, 2011.

lications/infosource/Pub/home/all_about_gas_fireplaces_chapter3.cfm?text=N&printview=N)

om/faq.html)

e.net/faq.html)
National Energy Savings Analysis

Average Annual Energy Use of Pilot Ignition (MMBtu/yr)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Fraction of Shipments

Fraction of Vented Hearth vs. All Hearth Shipments

Fraction of Vented Decorative Hearth Products vs. Vented Hearth 

Fraction of Units with Standing Pilot Light Ignition

Pilot Light Ignition (for Vented Decorative Hearth Products)

Continuously Burning Standing Pilot (for Vented Decorative Hearth Products)

April 2010 NES Results

April 2010 Final Rule Heated Hearth Product NES (2013-2042)

NES Results

April 2010 Final Rule Vented Hearth NES minus Decorative Units (2013-2042)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products NES from Pilot Removal (2015-2044)

Total Updated Vented Hearth Heaters and Decorative Hearth Products NES

Net additional NES after accounting for April 2010 Heating Products Final Rule

Average Annual Shipments (2015-2044)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Housing Starts vs. Hearth Product Correlation Factor

1990-2010

2001-2010 (Used for Analysis)

 Note: Based on 15 Year Average Lifetime

Year

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

Survival Function

Inputs

Summary Results
23

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

109876543210
Year

1990 300,000

1991 435,000

2.61 MMBtu/yr 1992 660,000

1993 895,875

1994 1,156,382

42% Based on 2003 and 2004 shipments 1995 NA

70% Based on Houck 2010 study. 1996 NA

1997 NA

1998 1,611,750

75.0% Based on 2010 models. 1999 1,767,529

37.5% 50% of Standing Pilot Light Models 2000 1,977,484

2001 1,694,330

2002 1,716,139

2003 1,809,886

0.186 Quads 2004 2,103,685

2005 2,141,165

2006 1,739,602

0.057 Quads 2007 1,513,364

0.166 Quads 2008 1,017,078

0.223 Quads 2009 635,820

2010 650,911

0.037 Quads 2011 1,446,718

2012 1,740,975

2013 1,779,367

457,418 2014 1,751,960

2015 1,764,688

2016 1,777,743

0.84 2017 1,756,411

0.97 2018 1,746,455

2019 1,745,236

2020 1,722,703

2021 1,664,061

Fraction Surviving 2022 1,620,781

0.0% 2023 1,597,421

0.0% 2024 1,589,226

0.0% 2025 1,610,503

0.0% 2026 1,606,857

0.0% 2027 1,568,205

0.0% 2028 1,513,380

0.0% 2029 1,481,218

Historical and Projected 

Total
0.0% 2030 1,484,592

0.0% 2031 1,467,369

0.1% 2032 1,419,891

0.3% 2033 1,405,096

1.0% 2034 1,410,502

3.1% 2035 1,415,438

7.8% 2036 1,422,515

16.8% 2037 1,429,628

30.5% 2038 1,436,776

48.1% 2039 1,443,960

66.7% 2040 1,451,180

82.8% 2041 1,458,436

93.8% 2042 1,465,728

99.0% 2043 1,473,056

100.0% 2044

100.0% 2045

100.0% 2046

100.0% 2047

100.0% 2048

100.0% 2049

100.0% 2050

100.0% 2051

100.0% 2052

100.0% 2053

2054

2055

2056

2057

2058

2059

2060

2061

2062

2063

2064

2065

2066
Hearth Heaters 

and Decorative 

Products

Decorative 

Hearth Products Hearth Heaters

Cumulative 

Affected 

Shipments

Site Energy Use 

(Quads)

100,000

135,000

240,000

265,247

395,447

721,322

765,224

609,926 426,948 182,978

733,982 513,787 220,195

750,168 525,118 225,050

738,614 517,029 221,584

743,979 520,786 223,194 195,295 0.0005

749,483 524,638 224,845 392,034 0.0010

740,490 518,343 222,147 586,413 0.0015

736,293 515,405 220,888 779,689 0.0020

735,779 515,045 220,734 972,831 0.0025

726,279 508,395 217,884 1,163,479 0.0030

701,556 491,089 210,467 1,347,638 0.0035

683,309 478,317 204,993 1,527,006 0.0040

673,461 471,423 202,038 1,703,790 0.0044

670,006 469,004 201,002 1,879,666 0.0049

678,976 475,283 203,693 2,055,917 0.0054

677,439 474,207 203,232 2,221,584 0.0058

661,144 462,801 198,343 2,361,532 0.0062

638,030 446,621 191,409 2,463,968 0.0064

624,470 437,129 187,341 2,526,589 0.0066

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Historical and Projected Hearth Shipments

Vented Hearth Heaters
625,893 438,125 187,768 2,555,470 0.0067

618,632 433,042 185,590 2,556,117 0.0067

598,616 419,031 179,585 2,535,194 0.0066

592,378 414,665 177,713 2,505,143 0.0065

594,657 416,260 178,397 2,474,130 0.0064

596,738 417,717 179,021 2,445,151 0.0064

599,722 419,805 179,917 2,419,425 0.0063

602,721 421,904 180,816 2,396,831 0.0062

605,734 424,014 181,720 2,376,957 0.0062

608,763 426,134 182,629 2,359,631 0.0061

611,807 428,265 183,542 2,345,036 0.0061

614,866 430,406 184,460 2,333,508 0.0061

617,940 432,558 185,382 2,325,347 0.0061

621,030 434,721 186,309 2,320,729 0.0060

2,155,813 0.0056

1,993,402 0.0052

1,833,109 0.0048

1,674,397 0.0044

1,516,642 0.0040

1,359,237 0.0035

1,201,688 0.0031

1,043,664 0.0027

884,981 0.0023

725,552 0.0019

567,001 0.0015

416,189 0.0011

282,569 0.0007

174,639 0.0005

96,657 0.0003

47,124 0.0001

19,911 0.0001

7,174 0.0000

2,171 0.0000

543 0.0000

111 0.0000

18 0.0000 2 0.0000
Source Energy 

Use (Quads)

Cumulative 

Affected 

Shipments

Site Energy Use - 

Gas (Quads)

Site Energy Use - 

Elec (TWh)

Source Energy 

Use - Gas 

(Quads)

225,050 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002

446,634 0.0003 -0.003 0.0004

0.0006 669,828 0.0005 -0.004 0.0006

0.0011 894,673 0.0007 -0.005 0.0008

0.0017 1,116,820 0.0009 -0.007 0.0009

0.0022 1,337,708 0.0010 -0.008 0.0011

0.0027 1,558,442 0.0012 -0.009 0.0013

0.0033 1,776,325 0.0014 -0.011 0.0015

0.0038 1,986,792 0.0015 -0.012 0.0017

0.0043 2,191,785 0.0017 -0.013 0.0019

0.0048 2,391,540 0.0019 -0.014 0.0020

0.0054 2,578,581 0.0020 -0.015 0.0022

0.0059 2,743,827 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0063 2,872,684 0.0022 -0.017 0.0025

0.0067 2,955,096 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025

0.0070 2,991,318 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025

0.0072 2,992,881 0.0023 -0.018 0.0026

ve Hearth Products 2013 Standard for Hearth Products

NIA Calculations
0.0073 2,975,293 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025

0.0073 2,945,560 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025

0.0072 2,906,431 0.0023 -0.017 0.0025

0.0071 2,865,834 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024

0.0070 2,828,293 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024

0.0070 2,794,606 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024

0.0069 2,765,082 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024

0.0068 2,739,239 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0068 2,716,523 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0067 2,696,721 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0067 2,680,041 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0066 2,666,867 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0066 2,657,539 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0066 2,652,262 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023

0.0061 2,463,786 0.0019 -0.015 0.0021

0.0057 2,278,174 0.0018 -0.014 0.0019

0.0052 2,094,982 0.0016 -0.013 0.0018

0.0048 1,913,596 0.0015 -0.011 0.0016

0.0043 1,733,305 0.0014 -0.010 0.0015

0.0039 1,553,413 0.0012 -0.009 0.0013

0.0034 1,373,357 0.0011 -0.008 0.0012

0.0030 1,192,759 0.0009 -0.007 0.0010

0.0025 1,011,407 0.0008 -0.006 0.0009

0.0021 829,202 0.0006 -0.005 0.0007

0.0016 648,001 0.0005 -0.004 0.0006

0.0012 475,645 0.0004 -0.003 0.0004

0.0008 322,936 0.0003 -0.002 0.0003

0.0005 199,587 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002

0.0003 110,465 0.0001 -0.001 0.0001

0.0001 53,856 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0001 22,755 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 8,199 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 2,481 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 621 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 127 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 21 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.00003 0.0000 0.000 0.0000
Source Energy 

Use - Elec 

(Quads)

Cumulative 

Affected 

Shipments

Site Energy Use - 

Gas (Quads)

Site Energy Use - 

Elec (TWh)

Source Energy 

Use - Gas 

(Quads)

0.0000 768,254 0.0006 -0.005 0.0006

0.0000 1,524,675 0.0012 -0.009 0.0013

0.0000 2,286,591 0.0018 -0.014 0.0019

-0.0001 3,054,143 0.0024 -0.018 0.0026

-0.0001 3,812,486 0.0030 -0.023 0.0032

-0.0001 4,566,530 0.0036 -0.027 0.0038

-0.0001 5,320,048 0.0041 -0.032 0.0045

-0.0001 6,063,836 0.0047 -0.036 0.0051

-0.0001 6,782,306 0.0053 -0.041 0.0057

-0.0001 7,482,089 0.0058 -0.045 0.0063

-0.0001 8,163,993 0.0064 -0.049 0.0069

-0.0001 8,802,493 0.0069 -0.053 0.0074

-0.0001 9,366,593 0.0073 -0.056 0.0079

-0.0001 9,806,471 0.0076 -0.059 0.0083

-0.0001 10,087,803 0.0079 -0.061 0.0085

-0.0001 10,211,452 0.0080 -0.061 0.0086

-0.0001 10,216,789 0.0080 -0.061 0.0086

2013 Standard for Hearth Products (April 2010 Final Rule)
-0.0001 10,156,749 0.0079 -0.061 0.0086

-0.0001 10,055,248 0.0078 -0.060 0.0085

-0.0001 9,921,675 0.0077 -0.060 0.0084

-0.0001 9,783,089 0.0076 -0.059 0.0082

-0.0001 9,654,936 0.0075 -0.058 0.0081

-0.0001 9,539,940 0.0074 -0.057 0.0080

-0.0001 9,439,152 0.0074 -0.057 0.0080

-0.0001 9,350,930 0.0073 -0.056 0.0079

-0.0001 9,273,385 0.0072 -0.056 0.0078

-0.0001 9,205,788 0.0072 -0.055 0.0078

-0.0001 9,148,847 0.0071 -0.055 0.0077

-0.0001 9,103,875 0.0071 -0.055 0.0077

-0.0001 9,072,033 0.0071 -0.055 0.0076

-0.0001 8,418,017 0.0066 -0.051 0.0071

-0.0001 7,774,616 0.0061 -0.047 0.0065

-0.0001 7,140,994 0.0056 -0.043 0.0060

-0.0001 6,515,632 0.0051 -0.039 0.0055

-0.0001 5,896,437 0.0046 -0.035 0.0050

-0.0001 5,280,977 0.0041 -0.032 0.0044

-0.0001 4,666,880 0.0036 -0.028 0.0039

-0.0001 4,052,224 0.0032 -0.024 0.0034

0.0000 3,435,717 0.0027 -0.021 0.0029

0.0000 2,816,636 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024

0.0000 2,201,094 0.0017 -0.013 0.0019

0.0000 1,615,633 0.0013 -0.010 0.0014

0.0000 1,096,920 0.0009 -0.007 0.0009

0.0000 677,941 0.0005 -0.004 0.0006

0.0000 375,217 0.0003 -0.002 0.0003

0.0000 182,934 0.0001 -0.001 0.0002

0.0000 77,292 0.0001 0.000 0.0001

0.0000 27,851 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 8,426 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 2,108 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 430 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000 70 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

0.0000

0.0000
Source Energy 

Use - Elec 

(Quads)

Housing 

Starts

Housing Starts vs. 

Hearth Shipments 

Factor

Natural Gas Electricity

966000

837600

963600

1039400

1160300

1065500

1128500

1116400

1159700

1270400

1241800

1255900 1.35

1325100 1.30

1386300 1.31

1531500 1.37

1635900 1.31 1.075 11500

1654500 1.05 1.075 11500

1218400 1.24 1.075 11500

818800 1.24 1.075 11500

520100 1.22 1.075 11500

496300 1.31 1.075 11500

1138975 1.27 1.075 11500

1370638 1.079 11500

-0.0001 1400864 1.084 11250

-0.0001 1379287 1.085 11000

-0.0001 1389307 1.084 10500

-0.0002 1399585 1.084 10000

-0.0002 1382791 1.084 8500

-0.0002 1374953 1.084 7500

-0.0002 1373993 1.084 7337

-0.0003 1356253 1.085 7337

-0.0003 1310085 1.084 7337

-0.0003 1276012 1.085 7337

-0.0004 1257621 1.089 7337

-0.0004 1251169 1.094 7405

-0.0004 1267920 1.095 7009

-0.0004 1265050 1.095 7009

-0.0004 1234620 1.095 6906

-0.0004 1191457 1.094 6872

-0.0004 1166136 1.094 6404

Site to Source Factor 

Other Data for NIA

0 Final Rule) Housing Starts
-0.0004 1168793 1.093 6396

-0.0004 1155233 1.093 6396

-0.0004 1117855 1.093 6396

-0.0004 1106207 1.093 6396

-0.0004 1110463 1.093 6396

-0.0004 1114349 1.092 6396

-0.0004 1119921 1.092 6396

-0.0004 1125520 1.092 6396

-0.0004 1131148 1.092 6396

-0.0004 1136804 1.092 6396

-0.0004 1142488 1.092 6396

-0.0003 1148200 1.092 6396

-0.0003 1153941 1.092 6396

-0.0003 1159711 1.092 6396

-0.0003 1.092 6396

-0.0003 1.092 6396

-0.0003 1.092 6396

-0.0002 1.092 6396

-0.0002 1.092 6396

-0.0002 1.092 6396

-0.0002 1.092 6396

-0.0001 1.092 6396

-0.0001 1.092 6396

-0.0001 1.092 6396

-0.0001 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

0.0000 1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396
Shipments Data

Year

Fireplaces, Freestanding 

Stoves, Inserts, Fireboxes, and 

Gas Logs* Vented Hearth

1990 300,000 100,000

1991 435,000 135,000

1992 660,000 240,000

1993 895,875 265,247

1994 1,156,382 395,447

1995 NA

1996 NA

1997 NA

1998 1,611,750

1999 1,767,529

2000 1,977,484

2001 1,694,330

2002 1,716,139 721,322

2003 1,809,886 765,224

2004 2,103,685

2005 2,141,165

2006 1,739,602

2007 1,513,364

2008 1,017,078

2009 635,820

2010 650,911

HPBA Disaggregated Shipments (2002,2003)

2002 2003

B Vent

Fireplaces 94,608 90,981

Stoves 8,357 8,773

Inserts 13,358 13,849

Log Sets 108,965 124,177

Outdoor 5,643 7,816

 230,931 245,596

Direct Vent

Fireplaces 499,443 541,335

Stoves 62,918 64,598

Inserts 42,638 45,688

 604,999 651,621

Total (B Vent + Direct Vent) 835,930 897,217
Source

Fraction of 

Hearth Fireplaces, 

Inserts, and Stoves

33%

31%

36%

30%

34%

42%

42%

Estimate from GRI Report: Gas 

Hearth Products Market Fact 

Base, 1996

HPBA Website. Hearth Industry 

Unit Shipments

1998--2010 

http://www.hpba.org/statistics/hp

ba-us-hearth-statistics
Charts for Shipments and Equipment Lifetime Data

Year Total

Hearth 

Heaters and 

Decorative 

Products

Decorative 

Hearth 

Products

Hearth 

Heaters Housing Starts

1990 0.30 0.10 0.97

1991 0.44 0.14 0.84

1992 0.66 0.24 0.96

1993 0.90 0.27 1.04

1994 1.16 0.40 1.16

1995 1.07

1996 1.13

1997 1.12

1998 1.61 1.16

1999 1.77 1.27

2000 1.98 1.24

2001 1.69 1.26

2002 1.72 0.72 1.33

2003 1.81 0.77 1.39

2004 2.10 1.53

2005 2.14 1.64

2006 1.74 1.65

2007 1.51 1.22

2008 1.02 0.82

2009 0.64 0.52

2010 0.65 0.50

2011 1.45 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.14

2012 1.74 0.73 0.51 0.22 1.37

2013 1.78 0.75 0.53 0.23 1.40

2014 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.38

2015 1.76 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.39

2016 1.78 0.75 0.52 0.22 1.40

2017 1.76 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.38

2018 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.37

2019 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.37

2020 1.72 0.73 0.51 0.22 1.36

2021 1.66 0.70 0.49 0.21 1.31

2022 1.62 0.68 0.48 0.20 1.28

2023 1.60 0.67 0.47 0.20 1.26

2024 1.59 0.67 0.47 0.20 1.25

2025 1.61 0.68 0.48 0.20 1.27

2026 1.61 0.68 0.47 0.20 1.27

2027 1.57 0.66 0.46 0.20 1.23

2028 1.51 0.64 0.45 0.19 1.19

2029 1.48 0.62 0.44 0.19 1.17
2030 1.48 0.63 0.44 0.19 1.17

2031 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 1.16

2032 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.12

2033 1.41 0.59 0.41 0.18 1.11

2034 1.41 0.59 0.42 0.18 1.11

2035 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.11

2036 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.12

2037 1.43 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.13

2038 1.44 0.61 0.42 0.18 1.13

2039 1.44 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.14

2040 1.45 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.14

2041 1.46 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.15

2042 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 1.15

2043 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 1.16

Lifetime Data Year Probability

30 0% 0% 0 0%

29 0% 0% 1 0%

28 0% 0% 2 0%

27 0% 0% 3 0%

26 0% 0% 4 0%

25 0% 0% 5 0%

24 0% 0% 6 0%

23 0% 0% 7 0%

22 0% 0% 8 0%

21 0% 0% 9 0%

20 0% 0% 10 1%

19 1% 1% 11 5%

18 3% 2% 12 11%

17 8% 5% 13 16%

16 17% 9% 14 19%

15 31% 14% 15 18%

14 48% 18% 16 14%

13 67% 19% 17 9%

12 83% 16% 18 5%

11 94% 11% 19 2%

10 99% 5% 20 1%

9 100% 1% 21 0%

8 100% 0% 22 0%

7 100% 0% 23 0%

6 100% 0% 24 0%

5 100% 0% 25 0%

4 100% 0% 26 0%

3 100% 0% 27 0%

2 100% 0% 28 0%
1 100% 0% 29 0% 0 100% 0% 30 0%

1450%
using Starts

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Million Shipments or H

ouseholds

Year

2001-2010 Hearth Shipments vs. Housing Starts

Hearth Shipments

Housing Starts

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Million Shipments or H

ouseholds

Historical Hearth Shipments Data (1990-2010)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Million

Year

Historical Hearth Shipments Data (1990-2010)

Total Hearth

Vented Hearth

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Million
8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Probability

Lifetime Distribution

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

05 10 15 20 25 30

Probability

Years

Year

Projected Hearth Shipments vs. Housing Starts 

(2011-2043)

Projected Hearth 

Shipments

Projected Housing Starts 

(AEO 2010)

Projected Hearth Shipments Data (2011-2043)

Year

Total Hearth

Total Vented Hearth

Vented Decorative Hearth