## 11

-i 

# CHAPTER 1 1 . UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 11

- 1
11.2 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 11

- 1
11.3 RESULTS

................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 11

- 1

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11.3.1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast

................................ ................................ .. 11

-2 Table 11.3.2 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

.............. 11

- 3 Table 11.3.3 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 2 Forecast

.............. 11

- 3 Table 11.3.4 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

.............. 11

-4 Table 11.3.5 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 4 Forecast

.............. 11

-4 Table 11.3.6 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

.............. 11

- 5 Table 11.3.7 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

........................... 11

- 5 Table 11.3.8 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 2 Forecast

........................... 11

- 6 Table 11.3.9 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

........................... 11

- 6 Table 11.3.10 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 4 Forecast

........................... 11

-7 Table 11.3.11 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

........................... 11

-7 Table 11.3.12 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

....................... 11

- 8 Table 11.3.13 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 2 Forecast

....................... 11

- 8 Table 11 .3.14 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

....................... 11

- 9 Table 11.3.15 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 4 Forecast

....................... 11

- 9 Table 11.3.16 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

..................... 11

- 10 Table 11.3.17 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2042 Under ASHRAE Products Efficiency Levels

................................ ................................ .............. 11

- 10

## 11

- 1 

# CHAPTER 11. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and generation that result for each Efficiency Level by plant type, as well as changes in commercial electricity consumption

.



# 11.2 METHODOLOGY

For each of the considered Efficiency Levels, DOE calculated total power

- sector emissions based on output from the NEMS

-BT model (see chapter 9 for description of the model).

11.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NEMS

-BT forecasts for commercial sector electricity consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation capacity by fuel type. Results are presented in five

-year increments through 2035. Beyond 2035, an extrapolation through 2043 for each Efficiency Level represents a simple replication of the 2035 results.

The results from the AEO2011 Reference Case are shown in Table 1 1 .3.1.

The results for water and evaporative cooled products by Efficiency Level are presented in Tables 11 .3.2 through 1 1 .3. 6

. The Results VRF water source heat pumps by Efficiency Level are presented in Tables 1 1 .3.7 through 1 1 .3.11 , and the results for computer room air conditioners are presented in Tables 1 1 .3.1 2 through 1 1 .3.16

. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 1 1 .2, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

The considered Efficiency Levels for ASHRAE products reduce energy consumption compared to the AEO2011 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model for any of the reported Efficiency Level s range from 0.00 to 0.2 7 percent of commercial sector electricity consumption in the year 2035.

## 11

-2 

# Table 11.3

. 1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: AEO 2011 Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1



### Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 

### 1,359 1,455 1,348 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1



### Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 

### 1,275 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886

Total U.S. Electric Generation 3



### Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218
Gas (TWh) 759 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283
Petroleum (TWh) 122 45 43 44 44 45 46
Nuclear (TWh) 782 803 839 877 877 877 874
Renewables (TWh) 360 414 556 608 673 703 724

Total (TWh) 4 

### 4,036 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146

Installed Generating Capacity 5



### Coal (GW) 314 322 322 323 326 329 334
Other Fossil (GW) 6 

### 439 471 471 470 490 530 571
Nuclear (GW) 100 101 106 110 110 110 110
Renewables (GW) 100 132 154 159 169 176 180
Total (GW) 7 

### 953 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196

1 

## Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2011: Energy Consumption

2 

## Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

## Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

4 

## Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

5 

## Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

6 

## Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

7 

## Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

## 11

-3 

# Table 11.3

.2 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

Table 11.3

.3 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 2 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 -0.011 -0.013 -0.013 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.001 0.012 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.001 -0.009 -0.001 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.006 -0.009 -0.007 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 0.00 -0.005 -0.005 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.007 -0.014 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.014

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.006 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.001 0.004 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.005 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.005 -0.01 -0.005 -0.005 Extrapolation

## 11

-4 

# Table 11.3

.4 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

Table 11.3

. 5 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 4 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.008 -0.021 -0.035 -0.038 -0.037 -0.036 -0.036

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.007 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 -0.011 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.007 -0.016 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.006 -0.011 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.008 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.012 -0.031 -0.050 -0.053 -0.052 -0.051 -0.051

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.003 -0.006 -0.010 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.011 -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.011 -0.024 -0.026 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.009 -0.016 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 -0.012 -0.018 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 Extrapolation

## 11

- 5 

# Table 11.3

. 6 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

Table 11.3

. 7 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 1 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.013 -0.032 -0.052 -0.054 -0.052 -0.052 -0.051

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.004 -0.007 -0.010 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.011 -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.012 -0.025 -0.027 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.010 -0.016 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 -0.012 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Extrapolation

## 11

-6 

# Table 11.3

. 8 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 2 Forecast

Table 11.3

.9 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 3 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.028 -0.065 -0.105 -0.147 -0.157 -0.158 -0.160

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.003 0.022 -0.014 -0.021 -0.015 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.003 -0.016 -0.006 -0.023 -0.034 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.002 -0.005 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.003 -0.025 -0.051 -0.055 -0.069 -0.069 -0.069 -0.069

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.012 -0.020 -0.033 -0.047 -0.047 -0.047 -0.047 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.006 -0.016 -0.025 -0.038 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052 Extrapolation

## 11

-7 

# Table 11.3

. 10 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 4 Forecast

Table 11.3

. 11 VRF Water Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 5 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.067 -0.155 -0.250 -0.350 -0.372 -0.376 -0.381

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.006 0.053 -0.034 -0.049 -0.036 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.006 -0.037 -0.014 -0.054 -0.080 -0.096 -0.096 -0.096 -0.096 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.009 -0.005 -0.012 -0.009 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.007 -0.060 -0.122 -0.130 -0.164 -0.164 -0.164 -0.164

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.003 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.028 -0.048 -0.077 -0.112 -0.112 -0.112 -0.112 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.015 -0.038 -0.060 -0.090 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.122 -0.284 -0.457 -0.640 -0.680 -0.689 -0.697

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.012 0.097 -0.062 -0.090 -0.066 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.012 -0.068 -0.025 -0.099 -0.146 -0.176 -0.176 -0.176 -0.176 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.016 -0.009 -0.022 -0.017 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,910 5,145 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.013 -0.110 -0.223 -0.238 -0.301 -0.301 -0.301 -0.301

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.006 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.018 -0.052 -0.087 -0.142 -0.205 -0.205 -0.205 -0.205 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.007 -0.007 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.028 -0.070 -0.110 -0.164 -0.227 -0.227 -0.227 -0.227 Extrapolation

## 11

- 8 

# Table 11.3

. 12 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

Table 11.3

. 13 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 2 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.011 -0.019 -0.024 -0.027 -0.029 -0.030 -0.029

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.003 0.022 -0.006 -0.006 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.003 -0.015 -0.002 -0.007 -0.008 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.003 -0.010 -0.015 -0.013 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.078 -0.184 -0.301 -0.351 -0.385 -0.392 -0.392

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.007 0.060 -0.040 -0.058 -0.043 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.007 -0.042 -0.016 -0.064 -0.096 -0.097 -0.097 -0.097 -0.097 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.010 -0.006 -0.014 -0.011 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.008 -0.070 -0.144 -0.157 -0.165 -0.165 -0.165 -0.165

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.011 -0.033 -0.056 -0.093 -0.113 -0.113 -0.113 -0.113 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.017 -0.045 -0.071 -0.108 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124 Extrapolation

## 11

-9 

# Table 11.3

. 14 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

Table 11.3

. 15 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 4 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,759 1,884 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.69 -1.13 -1.32 -1.45 -1.48 -1.48

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.03 0.23 -0.15 -0.22 -0.16 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 999 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.03 -0.16 -0.06 -0.24 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,662 4,910 5,145 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.03 -0.26 -0.54 -0.59 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 469 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.04 -0.12 -0.21 -0.35 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,195 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.07 -0.17 -0.27 -0.41 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 Extrapolation



## NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,525 1,635 1,758 1,882 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.68 -1.61 -2.64 -3.08 -3.38 -3.43 -3.45

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.06 0.53 -0.35 -0.51 -0.38 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 999 1,147 1,282 Gas (TWh) -0.06 -0.37 -0.14 -0.56 -0.84 -0.85 -0.85 -0.85 -0.85 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.09 -0.05 -0.12 -0.10 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,435 4,662 4,909 5,144 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.07 -0.61 -1.26 -1.37 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 325 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 469 490 529 570 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.10 -0.29 -0.49 -0.82 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,194 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.15 -0.39 -0.62 -0.95 -1.09 -1.09 -1.09 -1.09 Extrapolation

## 11

- 10 

# Table 11.3

. 16 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

Table 15 .3. 17 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2042 for the Efficiency Levels that DOE considered in this rulemaking.



# Table 11.3

. 17 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2042 Under ASHRAE
Products Efficiency Levels
Efficie

ncy Level
1 Efficie

ncy Level 2 Efficie

ncy Level 3 Efficien cy Level
4 Efficie

ncy Level
5 Water and Evaporative Cooled Products 0.005 0.005 0.013 0.019 0.019
VRF Water Source Heat Pumps 0.000 0.003 0.052 0.124 0.227 Computer Room Air Conditioners 0.009 0.124 0.469 1.09 1.81 NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042 Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,525 1,634 1,756 1,880 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.13 -2.68 -4.38 -5.12 -5.61 -5.71 -5.73

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,800 1,906 2,068 2,137 2,217 Coal (TWh) 0.10 0.88 -0.58 -0.84 -0.63 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73 Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 999 1,147 1,282 Gas (TWh) -0.10 -0.61 -0.24 -0.93 -1.40 -1.41 -1.41 -1.41 -1.41 Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.15 -0.09 -0.21 -0.16 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,435 4,661 4,908 5,143 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.12 -1.02 -2.10 -2.28 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 322 322 323 325 329 333 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 469 489 529 570 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.17 -0.48 -0.82 -1.36 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64 Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.07 -0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,094 1,144 1,194 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.65 -1.03 -1.57 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 Extrapolation

## 11

- 11 

# REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case Service Report, 2010 . Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA

-0383(2010).

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/>