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                            Funding & Awards
 SEQUENCING TERRORISTS? PRECURSOR BEHAVIORS:A CRIME SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
Award Information
Awardee
              University of Arkansas
Award #
              2013-ZA-BX-0001
Funding Category
              Competitive
Location
                    Fayetteville, AR
Congressional District
              3
Status
              Closed
Funding First Awarded
              2013
Total funding (to date)
              $470,383
Original Solicitation
              NIJ FY 13  Research and Evaluation on Radicalization to Violent Extremism in the United States
Description of original award (Fiscal Year 2013, $470,383)
Intelligence analysts have sought for years to identify "pre-incident indicators" that may be used to identify terrorist threats. Consequently, the NIJ funded a series of projects to examine the geospatial and temporal patterns of terrorists' precursor conduct. Geospatial findings from these projects are being used by a number of agencies for investigative and response planning purposes. Temporal data is more difficult to obtain, but we have found important differences in the planning cycles of terrorist groups that provide analysts, investigators, and prosecutors with guidance regarding variations in the length of the terrorists' planning process and optimum times for intervention. Until recently, however, sufficient data has not been available to conduct a crime-specific analysis of these precursor activities.
The goal of this project is to identify the temporal dimensions of terrorists' precursor conduct to determine if these behaviors occur in a logical sequenced pattern. The project will particularly focus upon identification of sequenced patterns that vary by group type, group size, and incident type. The project is interested in ascertaining whether characteristics of the planning process associated with these three issues are correlated with the successful completion or prevention of terrorist incidents.
In order to accomplish this, the project will analyze data drawn from "officially designated" federal terrorism cases from 1980-present collected for the NIJ as part of the American Terrorism Study (ATS) and now maintained in an Oracle relational database that includes over 400 variables on 819 defendants charged with 10,917 federal criminal counts. The database currently includes data on 3,345 precursor activities and nearly 800 date stamped preparatory acts linked to a terrorist incident. Additional data on new cases will be collected as part of the proposed project.
ca/ncf



  
Grant-Funded Publications
        
                      Domestic Radicalization Research Yields Possible Keys to Identifying Extremists on the Path to Terrorism
                  Sequencing Terrorists' Precursor Behaviors: A Crime Specific Analysis
                  Opportunity, Group Structure, Temporal Patterns, and Successful Outcomes of Far-Right Terrorism Incidents in the United States
                  A community-level comparison of terrorism movements in the United States
                  Temporal Sequencing, Incident Sophistication, and Terrorist Outcomes
                  Assessing the Attractiveness and Vulnerability of Eco-Terrorism Targets: A Situational Crime Prevention Approach
                  Patterns of Lone Actor Terrorism in the United States: Research Brief
                  The Emergence of Lone Wolf Terrorism: Patterns of Behavior and Implications for Intervention

  
Date Created: September 19, 2013
    
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