14-i

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................ 14-1 

14.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 14-2 

14.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-4 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case ................................................................................. 14-5

Table 14.4.2 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL1).......... 14-6

Table 14.4.3 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL2).......... 14-6

Table 14.4.4 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL3).......... 14-7

Table 14.4.5 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL4).......... 14-7

Table 14.4.6 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL5).......... 14-8

Table 14.4.7 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario 

(TSL1)................................................................................................................ 14-8

Table 14.4.8 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario 

(TSL2)................................................................................................................ 14-9

Table 14.4.9 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario 

(TSL3)................................................................................................................ 14-9

Table 14.4.10 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario 

(TSL4).............................................................................................................. 14-10

Table 14.4.11 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario 

(TSL5).............................................................................................................. 14-10

Table 14.4.12 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL1) ........... 14-11

Table 14.4.13 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL2) ........... 14-11

Table 14.4.14 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL3) ........... 14-12

Table 14.4.15 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL4) ........... 14-12

Table 14.4.16 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL5) ........... 14-13

Table 14.4.17 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting 

Expertise (TSL1).............................................................................................. 14-13

Table 14.4.18 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting 

Expertise (TSL2).............................................................................................. 14-14

Table 14.4.19 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting 

Expertise (TSL3).............................................................................................. 14-14

Table 14.4.20 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting 

Expertise (TSL4).............................................................................................. 14-15

Table 14.4.21 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting 

Expertise (TSL5).............................................................................................. 14-15
CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION 

The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation 

capacity of the Nation which would be expected to result from the adoption of amended efficacy 

efficiency standards. DOE used a version of EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) 

for this utility impact analyses.a NEMS which is available in the public domain is a large, multisectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. EIA uses NEMS to produce its 

AEO, a widely recognized baseline energy forecast for the United States. The version of NEMS 

used for appliance standards analysis is called NEMS-BT and is primarily based on the April 

Update of the AEO2009b

 with minor modifications.c The NEMS-BT offers a sophisticated 

picture of the effect of standards, since it accounts for the interactions between the various 

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole. 

 The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by 

fuel type, that result from the adoption of amended efficacy standards at each trial standard level 

(TSL), as well as changes in residential, commercial and industrial sector electricity 

consumption. 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in 

the analysis of efficacy standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known and 

fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the 

effects of efficacy standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate 

marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficacy standards than 

considering only average effects. 

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats the effects on 

electricity of efficacy improvements due to the deployment of amended general service 

 

a

 For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003. (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ftproot/forecasting/05812003.pdf) 

b

 An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, April 2009. 

c

 The EIA approves the use of the name NEMS to describe only an AEO version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because the present analysis entails some minor code modifications and runs the 

model under various policy scenarios that deviate from AEO assumptions, the name NEMS-BT refers to the model 

as used here. (“BT” stands for DOE’s Building Technologies Program.) 
14-2 

fluorescent lamp (GSFL) and incandescent reflector lamp (IRL) efficacy standards as variations 

in polic1. The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009

Reference Case and each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards 

reduces total electricity demand by a relatively small amount (in many cases less than one 

percent) in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the simulations. Therefore, 

DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for the TSLs. DOE assumed 

the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method is discussed in more detail 

below and in Appendix 14A. 

 DOE was unable to consider the High and Low Economic Growth Cases of AEO2009 for 

the utility impact analysis because these cases were developed for the March release of the 

AEO2009. The April version included a revised macroeconomic forecast reflecting an updated 

view of economic growth. As a result, the March cases are not compatible with the updated 

AEO2009 Reference Case.

14.3 METHOD 

NEMS-BT models certain policy scenarios, such as the effect of reduced electricity 

consumption, for each trial standard level. The analysis output provides a forecast for the needed 

power generation capacity and generation by fuel at each TSL. The estimated net benefit of the 

standard is the difference between the forecasted results by NEMS-BT and the AEO2009

Reference Case. 

 DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 

11) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be 

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is generally 

larger than the highest efficacy standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the 

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed 

description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix 14A. 

 Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity consumption in the NEMS-BT 

Residential, Commercial and Industrial (when appropriate) Demand Modules. Energy use 

reductions are applied to the lighting end use in each sector. 

 Although the amended GSFL and IRL efficacy standards lead to greater electricity 

demand reductions than most of the other previous standards, the price impacts based on NEMSBT runs performed for this rulemaking are still projected to be quite small. The case with the 

greatest projected lighting savings (the Max Tech case (TSL 5) for the General Service 

Fluorescent Lamps Existing Technology Scenario) projects electricity generation reductions of at 

most 1.0 percent in any year. The maximum decrease in average electricity prices is 0.6 percent 

in a year, and the average over the period 2012 to 2030 is only 0.4 percent. 
14-3 

 Further, the rapid turnover of lamp stock leads to energy savings that rise quickly and 

then plateau over time. This pattern of savings yields a relatively complex intertemporal pattern 

of utility investment and prices. It is possible that price reductions may occur in some years, 

while prices rise in other years, as capital expenditures may be deferred and then be required 

later. The end result is that the inter-temporal nature of capital stock turnover in the power 

industry means that price impacts do not smoothly rise over time. 

 In addition, the distribution and pricing of electricity is regulated everywhere, wherein 

institutional structure varies and the pricing of upstream components (i.e., generation and 

transmission) are frequently complicated applying different price setting methods across the 

country. The power sector entities impacted by the price changes due to the application of the 

appliance efficiency standard are a heterogeneous group. They include regulated distribution and 

transmission companies, regulated generation or vertically integrated power companies, and 

unregulated generation companies. 

 While DOE considered reporting the electricity price impacts as a part of the utility 

impact analysis, due to the significant uncertainty of projecting prices, the complexity of the 

power industry (including the variety of utility regulation in the U.S.), and the relatively small 

impact of amended efficacy standards on prices it was determined that these considerations 

should not be weighed heavily in the decision about the standard level. These timing 

complexities along with geographic and regulatory diversity make it virtually impossible to 

unwind societal benefits from these price impacts. 

 Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the analyses for 

GSFL and IRL amended efficacy standards extend to the year 2042. It is not feasible to extend 

the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an 

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem 

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable 

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by 

extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal 

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is 

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. 

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While 

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be 

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the 

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the 

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are 

included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are 

shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.
14-4 

14.4 RESULTS 

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, 

and residential, commercial and industrial-sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs 

presented in five-year increments to year 2030 for the Reference Case. Only the results for the 

proposed TSL for IRL and GSFL are reported for the High and Low Growth cases. Again, 

beyond the year 2030, an extrapolation to 2042 for each proposed TSL is represented by a simple 

replication of the year 2030 results. 

 The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1. A separate set 

of TSLs are modeled for each lamp technology. A total of five TSLs are modeled for each of the 

two appliance technologies, IRLs and GSFLs. In addition, for each technology, two scenarios 

are evaluated: 

 For IRL, DOE evaluated Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Substitution scenario and the 

Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up, BR Lamp Substitution scenario as the high and low range 

estimates, respectively. 

 For GSFL, DOE evaluated the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise 

scenario and the Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up, Market Segment Based Lighting 

Expertise scenario as the high and low range estimates respectively. 

For additional discussion of the formulation of these scenarios, see TSD Chapter 10. 

The NEMS-BT results including the difference from the Reference Case results for the 

IRL are presented in Tables 14.4.4 through 14.4.13. These tables also present the results across 

the two scenarios. A parallel set of tables for the GSFL are presented in Tables 14.4.14 to 

14.4.23. Each table also includes the extrapolation of the results to 2042. 

Amended IRL efficacy standards result in decreases to electricity consumption for all 

TSLs compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case under both scenarios. Power generation 

capacity is either unaffected or reduced by up to 1400 MW. 

Amended GSFL efficacy standards result in decreases to electricity consumption for all 

TSLs compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case under both scenarios as well. Power generation 

capacity is affected to a greater extent due to the larger decreases to electricity consumption 

associated with their adoption. Power generation capacity is reduced between 900 MW (for TSL 

1 under the Roll-Up scenario) to 7.3 GW (for TSL 5 under the Shift scenario). 
Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case 

14-5 

6

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results

Reference Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,663

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 4

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 560 617 795 855

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893

Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 591 641 673 680

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,141 4,345 4,565 4,740

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110

Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,030 1,046 1,095 1,147
Table 14.4.2 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL1) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,741 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.5) (0.5) (0.5

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,406 1,476 1,569 1,662 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.8) (0.9) (1.1Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.5) (0.3) (0.3Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 559 616 795 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.2 (0.5) (0.7) (0.7Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,140 4,344 4,563 4,738 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.4) (1.4) (1.6) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,030 1,046 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 

Table 14.4.3 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL2) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,506 1,619 1,740 1,864 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.5) (1.5) (1.5

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,475 1,569 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.6) (1.7) (2.0Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,166 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.2) (0.6) (0.7Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 558 615 794 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.4 (1.3) (1.6) (1.8Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.1Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.4) (0.7) (0.9) (1.0

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,138 4,342 4,561 4,736 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.2) (3.3) (3.6) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 

14-6 
Table 14.4.4 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL3) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,505 1,618 1,739 1,862 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.8) (2.7) (2.8

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,404 1,474 1,567 1,659 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.7) (3.0) (3.4Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,113 2,163 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.1) (1.3) (1.5Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 558 614 792 852 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.7 (2.2) (2.8) (2.9Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.2Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 590 639 671 678 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.7) (1.4) (1.7) (1.9

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,135 4,339 4,558 4,733 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (5.7) (5.9) (6.4) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.6) (0.7) (0.9) 

Table 14.4.5 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL4) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,504 1,617 1,738 1,862 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.4) (3.3) (3.3

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,404 1,473 1,566 1,658 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.5) (3.8) (4.3Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,021 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,113 2,163 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.6) (1.4) (1.7Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 702 557 613 792 852 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.8 (2.7) (3.4) (3.6Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.2Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 590 639 670 677 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.8) (1.9) (2.3) (2.4

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,134 4,338 4,557 4,731 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (7.1) (7.3) (7.9) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) (0.3Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 176 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.7) (0.9) (1.0) 

14-7 
Table 14.4.6 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL5) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,503 1,617 1,738 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.9) (3.9) (3.9) 

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,403 1,472 1,566 1,657 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.9) (4.4) (5.0) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,021 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,162 2,166 2,262 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.1 (2.8) (1.6) (1.7) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 702 556 613 791 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.9 (3.2) (4.0) (4.4) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 589 638 670 677 Renewables Generation (TWh) (1.0) (2.1) (2.6) (2.7) 

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,133 4,337 4,556 4,730 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (8.2) (8.5) (9.1) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 420 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 176 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) 

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.9) (1.1) (1.3) 

Table 14.4.7 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario (TSL

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,570 1,662 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 559 617 795 855 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 591 641 672 680 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,140 4,345 4,564 4,739 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,030 1,046 1,095 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 

14-8 
Table 14.4.8 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario (TSL

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) 0.1 0.0 

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,406 1,475 1,569 1,661 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.1) (1.2) (1.2) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 559 616 795 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.2 (0.7) (0.6) (0.6) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 591 641 672 680 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,139 4,344 4,564 4,739 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.5) (1.2) (1.2) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - 0.0 (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,030 1,046 1,095 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 

Table 14.4.9 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario (TSL

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.7) 0.1 0.0 

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,474 1,568 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.2) (2.5) (2.5) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,167 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.1) (0.6) (0.6) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 559 616 794 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.5 (1.2) (1.1) (1.1) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.5) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,138 4,343 4,562 4,737 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.0) (2.5) (2.5) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 

14-9 
Table 14.4.10 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario (TSL

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,506 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.9) 0.1 0.0 

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,474 1,568 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.5) (2.8) (2.8) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,167 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.2) (0.7) (0.7) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 558 615 794 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.6 (1.5) (1.3) (1.3) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.6) (0.8) (0.8) (0.9) 

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,137 4,342 4,562 4,737 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (3.5) (2.8) (2.9) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) 

Table 14.4.11 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario (TSL

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,506 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.1) 0.1 0.0 

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,404 1,473 1,567 1,659 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.9) (3.4) (3.3) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,166 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.4) (0.8) (0.8) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 558 615 794 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.7 (1.9) (1.7) (1.6) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.9) 

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,137 4,342 4,561 4,736 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (4.2) (3.3) (3.4) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 

14-10 
Table 14.4.12 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL1) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,505 1,618 1,738 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.8) (3.1) (3.4) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,406 1,475 1,568 1,661 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.7) (1.5) (2.2) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 997 1,017 1,022 982 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.3) (3.0) (3.5) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,113 2,162 2,165 2,262 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.3) (2.4) (2.3) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 558 613 791 850 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.7 (2.2) (3.7) (4.8) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 590 639 670 678 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.7) (1.5) (1.7) (2.2) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,135 4,337 4,555 4,729 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (6.0) (8.0) (9.7) (1

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 420 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.2) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.9) (1.1) (1.4) (

Table 14.4.13 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL2) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,504 1,617 1,738 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.5) (3.3) (3.6) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,406 1,475 1,568 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.8) (1.7) (2.8) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 996 1,017 1,022 982 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.6) (3.2) (3.7) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,161 2,164 2,261 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (3.0) (2.7) (3.2) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 702 558 614 792 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 1.1 (1.2) (2.5) (3.6) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 588 638 669 676 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.9) (3.2) (3.3) (3.6) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,134 4,336 4,554 4,728 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (7.4) (8.7) (10.6) (1

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.2) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 176 179 181 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,044 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.3) (1.1) (1.3) (1.6) (

14-11 
Table 14.4.14 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL3) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,496 1,607 1,726 1,849 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (11.3) (13.5) (16.0) (1

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,406 1,474 1,566 1,658 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.2) (2.6) (4.2) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 996 1,017 1,022 982 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.6) (3.0) (3.6) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,109 2,159 2,161 2,257 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (6.1) (5.5) (6.5) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 703 555 609 785 845 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 2.4 (4.2) (7.4) (10.2) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 877 883 892 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.7) (0.9) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 429 586 634 665 673 Renewables Generation (TWh) (2.3) (5.6) (6.7) (7.6) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,125 4,325 4,540 4,714 Total Generation (TWh) 0.1 (15.9) (20.2) (25.1) (2

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420 429 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 234 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.8) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 163 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.6) (0.9) (1.1) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 110 110 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.1) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 146 175 175 178 181 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.7) (1.6) (1.6) (1.7) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,020 1,027 1,042 1,090 1,143 Total Capacity (GW) (0.8) (2.6) (3.2) (4.3) (

Table 14.4.15 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL4) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,485 1,597 1,718 1,842 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.1 (22.3) (23.6) (24.3) (2

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,473 1,564 1,656 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.1 (1.6) (3.9) (6.2) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 994 1,016 1,021 981 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.1 (5.1) (4.3) (4.2) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,103 2,156 2,158 2,254 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.3 (11.9) (8.2) (9.3) (1Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 705 547 600 778 839 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 3.9 (12.5) (16.6) (17.5) (1Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 877 883 892 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.7) (1.0) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 427 585 633 664 672 Renewables Generation (TWh) (3.9) (6.3) (8.1) (8.9) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,110 4,311 4,528 4,703 Total Generation (TWh) 0.2 (30.8) (33.6) (36.6) (3

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420 429 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.9) (1.0) (1.0) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 234 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.5) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 139 162 188 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.1) (1.0) (1.5) (2.1) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 110 110 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) (0.0) - (0.1) (0.1) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 146 175 175 178 180 Renewables Capacity (GW) (1.2) (2.0) (2.0) (2.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,020 1,026 1,041 1,089 1,141 Total Capacity (GW) (1.2) (4.0) (4.8) (5.9) (

14-12 
Table 14.4.16 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL5) 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,478 1,590 1,712 1,837 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (29.5) (30.6) (29.5) (2

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,473 1,564 1,656 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.0) (3.9) (6.8) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 993 1,016 1,021 981 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.1 (5.5) (4.3) (4.2) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,002 2,097 2,154 2,157 2,252 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.3) (18.1) (10.5) (10.5) (1Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) 0.1 0.1 (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 706 549 600 778 841 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 5.7 (10.9) (17.3) (17.4) (1Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 877 882 892 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (1.4) (1.9) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 426 581 629 660 667 Renewables Generation (TWh) (5.4) (10.2) (11.9) (13.0) (1

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,102 4,304 4,522 4,698 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (39.3) (41.0) (42.8) (4

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420 429 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 139 161 187 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (1.0) (1.9) (2.9) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 110 110 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) (0.0) - (0.2) (0.2) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 145 174 174 177 179 Renewables Capacity (GW) (1.6) (3.1) (3.1) (3.0) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,019 1,025 1,040 1,087 1,140 Total Capacity (GW) (1.6) (4.8) (6.1) (7.3) (

Table 14.4.17 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,505 1,619 1,740 1,863 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.2) (2.0) (1.9) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,662 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) (0.8) (1.3) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 998 1,019 1,024 984 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.6) (1.2) (1.7) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (1.4) (1.3) (1.4) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 559 616 793 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.5 (0.5) (1.2) (1.9) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 590 639 671 678 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.5) (1.4) (1.5) (1.6) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,138 4,341 4,560 4,734 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.3) (4.2) (5.1) (

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) (0.0) - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.5) (0.7) (0.8) (

14-13 
Table 14.4.18 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,504 1,618 1,740 1,863 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.9) (2.2) (1.8) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,661 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.4) (1.0) (1.8) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 997 1,018 1,023 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.9) (2.0) (2.2) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,162 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (2.8) (1.5) (1.6) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 558 614 793 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.7 (1.5) (2.3) (2.5) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 590 639 671 678 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.7) (1.4) (1.6) (1.8) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,135 4,339 4,559 4,733 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (5.6) (5.6) (6.1) (

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) (0.0) - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (

Table 14.4.19 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,502 1,616 1,737 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (5.6) (4.7) (4.4) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,406 1,474 1,566 1,658 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.2) (2.7) (4.1) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 997 1,018 1,023 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.9) (1.9) (2.1) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,161 2,164 2,262 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (3.7) (2.7) (3.0) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 702 557 613 791 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 1.5 (3.0) (4.1) (4.7) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 430 589 638 669 677 Renewables Generation (TWh) (1.4) (2.5) (2.8) (3.2) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,132 4,335 4,554 4,728 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (9.2) (9.8) (11.2) (1

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.2) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 176 176 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.4) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,020 1,028 1,044 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.4) (1.3) (1.5) (1.7) (

14-14 
14-15 

Table 14.4.20 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,501 1,617 1,739 1,862 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (6.4) (3.7) (3.2) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,473 1,565 1,657 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.8) (4.1) (6.0) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 994 1,016 1,022 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (4.7) (3.8) (3.3) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,109 2,161 2,164 2,261 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (5.8) (2.8) (3.5) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 703 555 612 790 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 2.2 (4.3) (5.2) (5.2) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 429 588 637 668 676 Renewables Generation (TWh) (2.1) (3.5) (4.0) (4.1) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,127 4,333 4,552 4,726 Total Generation (TWh) 0.1 (13.6) (12.2) (13.2) (1

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 420 420 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 164 190 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) (0.0) - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 146 176 176 179 181 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.7) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,020 1,028 1,044 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW) (0.7) (1.6) (1.7) (1.7) (

Table 14.4.21 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise 

Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results Difference From Updated AEO2009 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,497 1,612 1,733 1,857 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (10.0) (8.8) (8.9) (

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,405 1,473 1,565 1,657 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.6) (3.7) (5.6) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 994 1,017 1,022 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (4.7) (3.8) (3.3) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,108 2,159 2,162 2,259 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (7.0) (4.9) (5.3) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 703 553 609 787 848 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 2.4 (6.4) (7.9) (8.3) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 883 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.4) (0.5) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 429 588 637 668 676 Renewables Generation (TWh) (2.2) (3.8) (3.9) (4.6) (

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,124 4,328 4,546 4,722 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (17.3) (17.1) (18.8) (1

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 133 140 163 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7) (Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW) (0.0) - (0.1) (0.1) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 146 176 176 179 181 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.7) (1.3) (1.3) (1.2) (

Total Capacity (GW) 1,020 1,028 1,043 1,092 1,145 Total Capacity (GW) (0.7) (2.1) (2.5) (2.7) (
14-16 

REFERENCES 

a

 U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with 

Projections to 2030. 2009: Washington, DC. ( http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ )