New Jersey Energy Efficiency 

Market Potential Assessment

Report Number 1401

Volume 1: Executive Summary

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

500 Ygnacio Valley Road

Suite 450

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

925.482.2000

www.enernoc.com

Prepared for:

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

Presented on:

October 17, 2012

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting iii

This report was prepared by

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

500 Ygnacio Valley Blvd., Suite 450

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

I. Rohmund, Project Director

D. Costenaro, Project Manager

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting v

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1-1

Background ...................................................................................................................1-1

Objectives .....................................................................................................................1-1

Report Organization .......................................................................................................1-1

Definitions of Potential ...................................................................................................1-1

2 ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT................................................ 2-3

Analysis Approach..........................................................................................................2-3

Data Development .........................................................................................................2-4

3 MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES ...................................... 3-1

Energy Use Summary .....................................................................................................3-1

Residential Sector ..........................................................................................................3-2

Commercial Sector.........................................................................................................3-4

Industrial Sector ............................................................................................................3-5

4 BASELINE FORECAST ............................................................................................ 4-1

Residential Sector ..........................................................................................................4-1

Commercial Sector.........................................................................................................4-2

Industrial Sector ............................................................................................................4-3

Baseline Forecast Summary ............................................................................................4-4

5 ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES.......................................................................... 5-1

6 OVERALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL ......................................................... 6-1

Electric Energy Efficiency – Overall Results ......................................................................6-3

Natural Gas Energy Efficiency – Overall Results ...............................................................6-4

Overview of Energy Efficiency Potential by Sector and Fuel...............................................6-5

7 ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL BY SECTOR...................................................... 7-1

Residential Electricity Potential........................................................................................7-2

Residential Natural Gas Potential.....................................................................................7-3

Commercial Electricity Potential ......................................................................................7-4

Commercial Natural Gas Potential ...................................................................................7-5

Industrial Electricity Potential..........................................................................................7-6

Industrial Natural Gas Potential.......................................................................................7-7

8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................... 8-1

General Recommendations .............................................................................................8-1

Residential Recommendations.........................................................................................8-1

Commercial and Industrial Recommendations ..................................................................8-2

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting vii

CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1 Overview of Analysis Approach ..............................................................................2-4

Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Electricity Use, 2010 ..........................................................................3-1

Figure 3-2 Sector-Level Natural Gas Use, 2010 .......................................................................3-2

Figure 3-3 Residential Electricity and Natural Gas Use by End Use (2010), All Homes ................3-3

Figure 3-4 Residential Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/household, 2010) ....3-3

Figure 3-5 Residential Natural Gas Intensity by End Use and Segment (therm/household, 2010)3-4

Figure 3-6 Commercial Electricity and Natural Gas Use by End Use (2010), All Buildings............3-4

Figure 3-7 Industrial Electricity and Natural Gas Use by End Use (2010), All Industries .............3-5

Figure 4-1 Residential Electricity Baseline Forecast by End Use ................................................4-1

Figure 4-2 Residential Natural Gas Baseline Forecast by End Use .............................................4-2

Figure 4-3 Commercial Electricity Baseline Forecast by End Use...............................................4-3

Figure 4-4 Commercial Natural Gas Baseline Forecast by End Use............................................4-3

Figure 4-5 Industrial Electricity Baseline Forecast by End Use ..................................................4-4

Figure 4-6 Industrial Natural Gas Baseline Forecast by End Use ...............................................4-4

Figure 4-7 Electricity Baseline Forecast Summary (GWh).........................................................4-5

Figure 4-8 Natural Gas Baseline Forecast Summary (million therms) ........................................4-6

Figure 6-1 Summary of Combined Electric and Natural Gas Energy Savings ..............................6-2

Figure 6-2 Combined Electric and Natural Gas Potential Forecasts (million BTU) .......................6-2

Figure 6-3 Summary of Electric Energy Savings ......................................................................6-3

Figure 6-4 Summary of Natural Gas Energy Savings................................................................6-4

Figure 7-1 Residential Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Savings............................................7-2

Figure 7-2 Residential Electric Achievable Low Potential by End Use in 2016.............................7-2

Figure 7-3 Residential Natural Gas Potential Savings ...............................................................7-3

Figure 7-4 Residential Natural Gas Achievable Low Potential by End Use in 2016 ......................7-3

Figure 7-5 Commercial Energy Efficiency Potential Savings ......................................................7-4

Figure 7-6 Commercial Achievable Low Potential Electricity Savings by End Use in 2016............7-4

Figure 7-7 Commercial Natural Gas Potential Savings ..............................................................7-5

Figure 7-8 Commercial Natural Gas Achievable Low Potential Savings by End Use in 2016.........7-5

Figure 7-9 Industrial Electric Potential Savings........................................................................7-6

Figure 7-10 Industrial Achievable Low Electricity Potential Savings by End Use in 2016...............7-6

Figure 7-11 Industrial Natural Gas Potential Savings .................................................................7-7

Figure 7-12 Industrial Natural Gas Achievable Low Potential Savings by End Use in 2016............7-7

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting ix

LIST OF TABLES

Table 4-1 Electricity Baseline Forecast Summary (GWh).........................................................4-5

Table 4-2 Natural Gas Baseline Forecast Summary (million therms) ........................................4-5

Table 5-1 Number of Measures Evaluated .............................................................................5-1

Table 6-1 Summary of Combined Electric and Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Potential .............6-1

Table 6-2 Summary of Electric Energy Efficiency Potential ......................................................6-3

Table 6-3 Summary of Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Potential ...............................................6-4

Table 6-4 Electric Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh).........................................................6-5

Table 6-5 Natural Gas Achievable Potential by Sector (million therms) ....................................6-5

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 1-1

INTRODUCTION

Background

The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU or the Board) is commencing a proceeding to 

examine the appropriate funding level for energy efficiency (EE) programs over the next four 

years, 2013 through 2016. Pursuant to the 1999, Electric Discount and Energy Competition Act, 

this will be the BPU’s fourth comprehensive resource analysis (CRA). 

The BPU has contracted with EnerNOC to conduct a market assessment and energy efficiency

potential study to assess the potential statewide impacts from energy efficiency resources for 

this time period. 

Toward this end, EnerNOC conducted a detailed, bottom-up assessment of the New Jersey 

market to deliver forecasts of both electric and natural gas energy use, as well as forecasts of 

the electric and natural gas energy savings achievable through energy efficiency measures. The

potential study addresses the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. 

Objectives

The study addresses energy efficiency potential and informs the CRA process in the following 

ways:

 Determines markets to address with EE programs 

 Finds the potential for energy savings for the 2013–2016 period

 Provides high-level recommendations regarding programs

Report Organization

This report is presented in 3 volumes as outlined below. This document is Volume 1: Executive 

Summary.

 Volume 1, Executive Summary

 Volume 2, Report

 Volume 3, Appendices 

Definitions of Potential

In this study, we estimate the potential for energy efficiency savings. The savings estimates 

represent gross savings1 developed into three types of potential: technical potential, economic 

potential, and achievable potential. Technical and economic potential are both theoretical limits 

to efficiency savings. Achievable potential embodies a set of assumptions about the decisions 

consumers make regarding the efficiency of the equipment they purchase, the maintenance 

activities they undertake, the controls they use for energy-consuming equipment, and the 

elements of building construction. Because estimating achievable potential involves the inherent 

uncertainty of predicting human behaviors and responses to market conditions , we developed 

 

1

Savings in “gross” terms instead of “net” terms means that the baseline forecast does not include naturally occurring efficiency. In 

other words, the baseline assumes that energy efficiency levels remain fixed as they are today. This rule holds true except in cases 

where enactment of future codes and standards were on the books before January 2012, e.g. the effects of the EISA 2007 lighting 

efficiency standard.

CHAPTER 1
Introduction

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low and high achievable potential as boundaries for a likely range. The various levels are 

described below.

 Technical potential is defined as the theoretical upper limit of energy efficiency potential. 

It assumes that customers adopt all feasible measures regardless of their cost. At the time of 

existing equipment failure, customers replace their equipment with the most efficient option 

available. In new construction, customers and developers also choose the most efficient 

equipment option. Examples of measures that make up technical potential for electricity in 

the residential sector include:

o Ductless mini-split air conditioners with variable refrigerant flow 

o Ground source (or geothermal) heat pumps 

o LED lighting 

Technical potential also assumes the adoption of every other available measure, where 

applicable. For example, it includes installation of high-efficiency windows in all new 

construction opportunities and air conditioner maintenance in all existing buildings with 

central and room air conditioning. These retrofit measures are phased in over a number of 

years, which is longer for higher-cost and complex measures. 

 Economic potential represents the adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency 

measures. In this analysis, the cost effectiveness is measured by the total resource cost 

(TRC) test, which compares lifetime energy and capacity benefits to the incremental cost of 

the measure. If the benefits outweigh the costs (that is, if the TRC ratio is greater than 1.0), 

a given measure is considered in the economic potential. Customers are then assumed to 

purchase the most cost-effective option applicable to them at any decision juncture.

 Achievable High potential estimates customer adoption of economic measures when 

delivered through efficiency programs under ideal market, implementation, and customer 

preference conditions. Information channels are assumed to be established and efficient for 

marketing, educating consumers, and coordinating with trade allies and delivery partners. 

Achievable High potential establishes a maximum target for the EE savings that an 

administrator can hope to achieve through its EE programs and involves incentives that 

represent a substantial portion of the incremental cost combined with high administrative 

and marketing costs. 

 Achievable Low potential reflects expected program participation given significant barriers 

to customer acceptance, non-ideal implementation conditions, and limited program budgets. 

This represents a lower bound on achievable potential.
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 2-3

ANALYSIS APPROACH AND DATA DEVELOPMENT

This section briefly discusses the analysis approach taken for the study and the data sources 

used to develop the potential estimates.

Analysis Approach

To perform the energy efficiency analysis, EnerNOC used a bottom-up analysis approach as 

shown in Figure 2-1. This involved the following steps.

1. Held a meeting with the client project team to refine the objectives of the project in detail. 

This resulted in a work plan for the study.

2. Performed a market characterization to describe sector-level electricity and natural gas use

for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors for the base year, 2010. This included 

using existing information contained in prior New Jersey studies, in EnerNOC’s own 

databases and tools, and in other secondary data sources such as the American Community 

Survey (ACS) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

3. Developed a baseline electricity and natural gas forecast by sector, segment, and end use for 

2013 through 2024. Results presented in this volume focus on the upcoming four-year 

implementation cycle of 2013 through 2016. Results beyond 2016 are available in the 

Appendices and are given at a high level in Chapter 12 of this document.

4. Identified several hundred measures and estimated their effects in four levels of energy -

efficiency potential: Technical, Economic, Achievable High, and Achievable Low.

5. Reviewed the current programs offered in New Jersey in light of the study findings to make 

strategic program recommendations for achieving savings. 

These steps are described in further detail in Chapter 2 of the main body of the report. 

CHAPTER 2
Analysis Approach and Data Development

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Figure 2-1 Overview of Analysis Approach

Data Development

A discussion of the data sources used in this study, as well as how they were applied, is found in 

Chapter 2 of the main body of the report. In general, data were used according to the hierarchy 

given below and adapted to local conditions whenever possible, for example, by using local 

sources for measure data and local weather for building simulations. 

 New Jersey data first

 EnerNOC’s databases and analysis tools

 Other secondary data and reports if necessary
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-1

CHAPTER 3

MARKET CHARACTERIZATION AND MARKET PROFILES

In this section, we describe how customers in New Jersey use electricity and natural gas in the 

base year of the study, 2010. It begins with a high-level summary of energy use by sector and 

then delves into each sector. More detail can be found in Chapter 3 of the main report.

Energy Use Summary

Total electricity use for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors for New Jersey in 2010

was 78,859 GWh.2 As shown in Figure 3-1, the largest sector is commercial, accounting for 51%, 

or 40,123 GWh. The remaining use is split between the residential and industrial sectors, at 

30,307 GWh and 8,429 GWh respectively.

Figure 3-1 Sector-Level Electricity Use, 2010

Residential

38%

Commercial

51%

Industrial

11%

Total natural gas use for all sectors in 2010 was 4,619 million therms.

3 As shown in Figure 3-2, 

the largest sector is residential, accounting for 49%, or 2,255 million therms. The remaining use 

is split between the commercial and industrial sectors, at 1,867 million therms and 497 million 

therms respectively.

 

2

Energy given “at-the-meter,” i.e. does not include line losses.

3

Energy given “at-the-meter,” i.e. does not include line losses.
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

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Figure 3-2 Sector-Level Natural Gas Use, 2010

Residential

49%

Commercial

40%

Industrial

11%

Residential Sector

The total number of households, electric sales, and natural gas sales for the State of New Jersey 

were obtained for the year 2010 from the US DOE Energy Information Administration website. In 

2010, there were 3.45 million households in New Jersey. They used 30.3 TWh of electricity 4 and 

2.25 billion therms of natural gas. 5

Figure 3-3 shows the distribution of electricity and natural gas energy consumption by end use 

for all homes. Three main electricity end uses — cooling, lighting, and appliances — account for 

over 60% of total use. The remaining energy is allocated to space heating, water heating, 

electronics (computers, televisions, video game consoles, etc.) and miscellaneous. The 

miscellaneous category includes furnace fans, pool pumps, and other “plug” loads (hair dryers, 

power tools, coffee makers, etc.). Within the appliance category, 58% of electricity is used by 

refrigerators and freezers.

Natural gas usage is dominated by space heating (69%) and water heating (19%), with small 

amounts in appliances for cooking or clothes drying, as well as miscellaneous uses such as pool 

heaters. 

 

4 U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, See Table 2, http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

5 U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, http://205.254.135.7/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-3

Figure 3-3 Residential Electricity and Natural Gas Use by End Use (2010), All Homes

New Jersey has high saturations of natural gas heating equipment, resulting in an average 

annual electricity intensity that is relatively low at 8,772 kWh per household. Meanwhile, the 

natural gas intensity is 653 therms per household6. 

Figure 3-4 and Figure 3-5 present the electricity and natural gas intensities by end-use and 

housing type, as well as all homes on average.

Figure 3-4 Residential Electricity Intensity by End Use and Segment (kWh/household, 2010)

 

6

This is average natural gas use across all homes, including both those with natural gas and those without. 
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

3-4 www.enernoc.com

Figure 3-5 Residential Natural Gas Intensity by End Use and Segment (therm/household, 

2010)

Commercial Sector

The total electric energy consumed by commercial customers in New Jersey in 2010 was 40,123 

GWh7 and the total natural gas energy consumed was 1,867 million therms. 8

Figure 3-6 shows the distribution of electricity and natural gas energy consumption by end use 

for all commercial buildings. Electric usage is dominated by lighting, with interior and exterior 

varieties accounting for over one third of consumption. After lighting, the largest end uses are 

cooling, refrigeration, ventilation, and office equipment. The remaining end uses comprise 7% or 

less of total usage: miscellaneous, space heating, water heating, and food preparation. 

Natural gas usage is dominated by space heating (66%) and water heating (22%), with a small 

amount in food preparation and miscellaneous.

Figure 3-6 Commercial Electricity and Natural Gas Use by End Use (2010), All Buildings

 

7 U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, See Table 2, http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

8 U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, http://205.254.135.7/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
Market Characterization and Market Profiles

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 3-5

Industrial Sector

The total electric energy consumed by industrial customers in New Jersey in 2010 was 8,429 

GWh9 and the total natural gas energy consumed was 497 million therms. 10

Figure 3-7 shows the distribution of electricity and natural gas energy consumption by end use 

for all industrial customers. Motors are clearly the largest overall end use for the industrial 

sector, accounting for 45% of energy use. Note that this end use includes a wide range of 

industrial equipment, such as air compressors and refrigeration compressors, pumps, conveyor 

motors, and fans. The process end use accounts for 25% of energy use, which includes heating, 

cooling, refrigeration, and electro-chemical processes. Lighting is the next highest, followed by

cooling, space heating, ventilation, and miscellaneous. 

Natural gas usage is dominated by process usage at 72%, most particularly process heating. 

Space heating (22%) and miscellaneous (6%) comprise the remainder of the sector’s energy 

usage. 

Figure 3-7 Industrial Electricity and Natural Gas Use by End Use (2010), All Industries

 

9 U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, See Table 2, http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

10 U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, http://205.254.135.7/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-1

CHAPTER 4

BASELINE FORECAST

Prior to developing estimates of energy-efficiency potential, a baseline end-use forecast was 

developed to quantify what the consumption is likely to be in the future in absence of new 

efficiency programs and naturally occurring efficiency. The baseline forecast serves as the metric 

against which energy efficiency potentials are measured. This chapter presents the baseline 

forecast for electricity and gas for each sector. More detail can be found in Chapter 4 of the 

main report.

Residential Sector 

The baseline forecast incorporates assumptions about economic growth, electricity prices, and 

appliance/equipment standards and building codes that are already mandated as described in 

Chapter 2. 

Figure 4-1 presents the baseline forecast for electricity at the end-use level for the residential 

sector as a whole. Overall, residential use decreases slightly from 30,307 GWh in 2010 to 29,502

GWh in 2016, a decrease of 2.7%, or an average reduction of 0.4% per year. This reflects the 

impact of the EISA lighting standard, additional appliance standards adopted in 2011, and 

modest customer growth. 

Figure 4-1 Residential Electricity Baseline Forecast by End Use

-

5,000 

10,000 

15,000 

20,000 

25,000 

30,000 

35,000 

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (GWh)

Cooling

Heating

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Appliances

Electronics

Miscellaneous

Figure 4-2 presents the residential sector baseline forecast for natural gas at the end use level. 

Natural gas use increases from 2,255 million therms in 2010 to 2,352 million therms in 2016, an 

overall increase of 4.3% and an average growth of 0.7% per year.
Baseline Forecast

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Figure 4-2 Residential Natural Gas Baseline Forecast by End Use

-

500 

1,000 

1,500 

2,000 

2,500 

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (mmTherm)

Heating

Water Heating

Appliances

Miscellaneous

Commercial Sector

Electricity use in the commercial sector shows a decline of 10.8% overall during the forecast 

horizon, an average of 1.9% per year. Usage starts at 40,123 GWh in 2010, and decreases to 

35,797 GWh in 2016. Figure 4-3 presents the electricity baseline forecast at the end-use level 

for the commercial sector as a whole. Usage is generally declining due to a sluggish economic 

recovery and the phasing in of codes and standards. The EISA 2007 lighting standards and 

EPACT 2005 refrigeration standards are also showing significant effects.
Baseline Forecast

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-3

Figure 4-3 Commercial Electricity Baseline Forecast by End Use

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (1,000 MWh)

Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Water Heating

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Refrigeration

Food Preparation

Office Equipment

Miscellaneous

Figure 4-4 shows the baseline forecast for natural gas, which is expected to decline by 6% 

between 2010 and 2016. The sluggish economy and more efficient equipment in new 

construction and normal equipment replacement cycles account for this decline.

Figure 4-4 Commercial Natural Gas Baseline Forecast by End Use

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (mmTherm)

Heating

Water Heating

Food Preparation

Miscellaneous

Industrial Sector

Figure 4-5 presents the electricity baseline forecast at the end-use level for the industrial sector 

as a whole. Overall, industrial annual electricity use decreases from 8,429 GWh in 2010 to 7,732 

GWh in 2016, an overall decrease of 8.3%, or 1.4% per year. This is largely driven by the 

economy and sluggish projections for recovery.
Baseline Forecast

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Figure 4-5 Industrial Electricity Baseline Forecast by End Use

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (1,000 MWh)

Cooling

Heating

Ventilation

Interior Lighting

Exterior Lighting

Motors

Process

Miscellaneous

Figure 4-6 show a similar story for the industrial natural gas baseline forecast. The overall 

decrease from 2010 to 2016 is 3.2%, with an average decline of 0.5% per year. 

Figure 4-6 Industrial Natural Gas Baseline Forecast by End Use

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (1,000 therm)

Heating

Process

Miscellaneous

Baseline Forecast Summary

Table 4-1 and Figure 4-7 provide a summary of the baseline forecast for electricity by sector for 

the State of New Jersey. Overall, the forecast shows a slight to moderate decline in electricity 

use, due to a challenging macroeconomic environment and codes and standards.
Baseline Forecast

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 4-5

Table 4-1 Electricity Baseline Forecast Summary (GWh)

Sector 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 % Change

Avg. 

Growth 

Rate

Residential 30,307 30,442 29,793 29,515 29,502 -2.7% -0.4%

Commercial 40,123 36,511 35,964 35,699 35,797 -10.8% -1.9%

Industrial 8,429 7,822 7,858 7,937 7,732 -8.3% -1.4%

Total 78,859 74,776 73,615 73,151 73,031 -7.4% -1.3%

Figure 4-7 Electricity Baseline Forecast Summary (GWh)

-

10,000 

20,000 

30,000 

40,000 

50,000 

60,000 

70,000 

80,000 

90,000 

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (GWh)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Table 4-2 and Figure 4-8 provide a summary of the natural gas baseline forecast by sector for 

New Jersey. Overall, the forecast is increasing slightly across all sectors. 

Table 4-2 Natural Gas Baseline Forecast Summary (million therms)

Sector 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 % Change

Avg. 

Growth 

Rate

Residential 2,255 2,300 2,319 2,333 2,352 4.3% 0.7%

Commercial 1,867 1,771 1,753 1,748 1,756 -6.0% -1.0%

Industrial 497 489 487 487 481 -3.2% -0.5%

Total 4,619 4,560 4,559 4,568 4,589 -0.7% -0.1%
Baseline Forecast

4-6 www.enernoc.com

Figure 4-8 Natural Gas Baseline Forecast Summary (million therms)

-

500 

1,000 

1,500 

2,000 

2,500 

3,000 

3,500 

4,000 

4,500 

5,000 

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Use (mmTherm)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 5-1

CHAPTER 5

ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES

The energy efficiency measures used in this analysis are detailed in Chapter 5 of the main report 

as well as Appendix B, C, and D. Table 5-1 summarizes the number of equipment and nonequipment measures evaluated for each segment within each sector.

Table 5-1 Number of Measures Evaluated

Residential Commercial Industrial

Total Number 

of Measures

Equipment Measures Evaluated 165 179 125 469

Non-Equipment Measures Evaluated 49 94 87 229

Total Measures Evaluated 214 273 212 699

Appendix B gives results for the economic screening process by segment, vintage, end use and 

measure for the residential sector. Appendices C and D shows the equivalent information for the 

commercial and industrial sectors, respectively.

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-1

CHAPTER 6

OVERALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL

This chapter presents the overall results of the energy-efficiency analysis for the State of New 

Jersey. Key findings related to potentials are summarized below.

 Achievable Low potential forms a lower point on the range of achievable potential. Across 

all sectors, this metric is 5,678 BTU in 2013 and increases to 29,925 BTU by 2016. This 

represents 0.4% of the baseline forecast in 2013 and 2.3% in 2016. 

 Achievable High potential forms the upper bound on the range of achievable potential. It 

is 11,799 BTU in 2013, which represents 0.9% of the baseline forecast. By 2016, the 

cumulative savings are 57,144 BTU, 4.4% of the baseline forecast, for an annual average of 

just over 1% per year. 

 Economic potential, which reflects the savings when all cost-effective measures are taken, 

is 45,966 BTU in 2013. This represents 3.5% of the baseline energy forecast. By 2016,

economic potential reaches 127,588 BTU, 9.9% of the baseline energy forecast. 

 Technical potential, which reflects the adoption of all energy efficiency measures 

regardless of cost-effectiveness, is a theoretical upper bound on savings. In 2013, energy 

savings are 62,433 BTU, or 4.8% of the baseline energy forecast. By 2016, technical 

potential reaches 177,390 BTU, 13.7% of the baseline energy forecast. 

Table 6-1 and Figure 6-1 summarize the energy-efficiency savings for the different levels of 

potential relative to the baseline forecast. Figure 6-2 displays the energy-efficiency forecasts. To 

combine the electric and natural gas energy efficiency potentials, kWhs and therms are both 

converted to a common unit, BTUs, in order to facilitate comparison.

Further detail can be found in Chapter 6 of the main report.

Table 6-1 Summary of Combined Electric and Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Potential

2013 2014 2015 2016

Baseline Forecast (million BTU) 1,308,205 1,294,830 1,290,496 1,291,174

Cumulative Savings (million BTU)

Achievable Low Potential 5,678 14,223 22,181 29,925

Achievable High Potential 11,799 28,680 43,780 57,144

Economic Potential 45,966 82,457 110,745 127,588

Technical Potential 62,433 109,812 148,665 177,390

Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Achievable Low Potential 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 2.3%

Achievable High Potential 0.9% 2.2% 3.4% 4.4%

Economic Potential 3.5% 6.4% 8.6% 9.9%

Technical Potential 4.8% 8.5% 11.5% 13.7%
Overall Energy Efficiency Potential

6-2 www.enernoc.com

Figure 6-1 Summary of Combined Electric and Natural Gas Energy Savings

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Figure 6-2 Combined Electric and Natural Gas Potential Forecasts (million BTU)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Energy Consumption (million BTU)

Baseline Forecast

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Economic Potential

Technical Potential
Overall Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-3

Electric Energy Efficiency – Overall Results 

Table 6-2 and Figure 6-3 summarize the electric energy-efficiency savings for the different levels 

of potential relative to the baseline forecast. 

Table 6-2 Summary of Electric Energy Efficiency Potential

2013 2014 2015 2016

Baseline Forecast (GWh) 74,776 73,615 73,151 73,031

Cumulative Savings (GWh)

Achievable Low Potential 446 1,125 1,718 2,255

Achievable High Potential 918 2,251 3,368 4,277

Economic Potential 3,418 6,255 8,316 9,369

Technical Potential 3,708 6,647 8,782 9,868

Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Achievable Low Potential 0.6% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1%

Achievable High Potential 1.2% 3.1% 4.6% 5.9%

Economic Potential 4.6% 8.5% 11.4% 12.8%

Technical Potential 5.0% 9.0% 12.0% 13.5%

Figure 6-3 Summary of Electric Energy Savings

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High
Overall Energy Efficiency Potential

6-4 www.enernoc.com

Natural Gas Energy Efficiency – Overall Results 

Table 6-3 and Figure 6-4 summarize the natural gas energy-efficiency savings for the different 

levels of potential relative to the baseline forecast. 

Table 6-3 Summary of Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Potential

2013 2014 2015 2016

Baseline Forecast (1,000 therms) 4,560,186 4,558,750 4,568,218 4,588,711

Cumulative Savings (1,000 therms)

Achievable Low Potential 5,906 14,004 26,066 42,208

Achievable High Potential 13,420 30,291 54,007 83,980

Economic Potential 70,161 111,704 159,709 208,193

Technical Potential 201,774 340,611 485,779 649,293

Energy Savings (% of Baseline)

Achievable Low Potential 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9%

Achievable High Potential 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8%

Economic Potential 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5%

Technical Potential 4.4% 7.5% 10.6% 14.1%

Figure 6-4 Summary of Natural Gas Energy Savings

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High
Overall Energy Efficiency Potential

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 6-5

Overview of Energy Efficiency Potential by Sector and Fuel

Table 6-4 and Table 6-5 summarize the range of achievable potential by sector for electricity and 

natural gas respectively. The commercial sector accounts for the largest portion of the savings, 

followed by residential. The industrial sector contributes a relatively small amount of potential.

Table 6-4 Electric Achievable Potential by Sector (GWh)

2013 2014 2015 2016

Achievable Low Savings (GWh)

Residential 172.9 502.3 764.4 942.7

Commercial 248.6 578.9 872.6 1,189.3

Industrial 22.1 46.4 77.4 111.9

Total 443.6 1,127.6 1,714.4 2,243.9

Achievable High Savings (GWh)

Residential 352.6 1,010.5 1,512.4 1,798.6

Commercial 513.0 1,150.4 1,696.4 2,243.5

Industrial 46.1 92.8 150.1 210.4

Total 911.7 2,253.8 3,358.9 4,252.6

Table 6-5 Natural Gas Achievable Potential by Sector (million therms)

2013 2014 2015 2016

Achievable Low Savings (million therms)

Residential 0.6 2.3 4.8 6.9

Commercial 5.2 11.4 20.6 34.3

Industrial 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0

Total 5.9 14.0 26.1 42.2

Achievable High Savings (million therms) 

Residential 1.1 4.6 9.3 12.8

Commercial 12.0 25.1 43.5 69.2

Industrial 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0

Total 13.4 30.3 54.0 84.0

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-1

CHAPTER 7

ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL BY SECTOR

This chapter presents the results of the energy efficiency analysis at the sector level. First, the 

residential potential is presented, followed by the commercial, and lastly, industrial. Within each 

sector, electric results are presented first and natural gas results second. 

Further detail can be found in Chapter 7 of the main report. Year by year savings for electric 

energy, electric peak demand, and natural gas energy are available in Appendix F. 
Energy Efficiency Potential By Sector

7-2 www.enernoc.com

Residential Electricity Potential 

Figure 7-1 depicts estimates for the four types of potential for the residential electricity sector.

Figure 7-2 presents the residential achievable potential by end use. The measures that account 

for the majority of savings are:

 Lighting: mostly CFL lamps and specialty bulbs

 Electronics (reduce standby wattage, televisions, set top boxes, PCs)

 Second refrigerator/ freezer removal

 HVAC: Removal of second room AC unit, efficient air conditioners, ducting repair/sealing, 

insulation, home energy management system and programmable thermostats

 Behavioral feedback tools

Figure 7-1 Residential Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Savings

0 %

1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

5 %

6 %

7 %

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy7Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Figure 7-2 Residential Electric Achievable Low Potential by End Use in 2016 

Cooling

8 %

Heating

1 % Water Heating

1 %

Int. Lighing

67%

Ext. Lighting

8 %

Appliances

4 % Electronics

11%

Misc

0 %
Energy Efficiency Potential By Sector

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-3

Residential Natural Gas Potential

Figure 7-3 presents estimates for the four types of potential for natural gas usage in the 

residential sector. Figure 7-4 presents the residential achievable potential by end use. The 

measures that account for the largest savings are: 

 Efficient furnaces & boilers, boiler hot water reset ,ducting repair/sealing, insulation, home 

energy management system & programmable thermostats

 Efficient water heaters, low-flow showerheads, faucet aerators, and water heater tank 

blankets

 Behavioral feedback tools.

Figure 7-3 Residential Natural Gas Potential Savings

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Figure 7-4 Residential Natural Gas Achievable Low Potential by End Use in 2016 

Heating

66%

Water Heating

33%

Appliances

0 %

Misc

1 %
Energy Efficiency Potential By Sector

7-4 www.enernoc.com

Commercial Electricity Potential

Figure 7-5 presents estimates for the four types of potential for the residential electricity sector.

Figure 7-6 shows the achievable potential savings by end use. The measures with the highest 

savings are:

 Lighting – CFLs, LED lamps, linear fluorescent, daylighting controls, occupancy sensors , and 

HID lamps for exterior lighting 

 Energy management systems & programmable thermostats

 Ventilation – variable speed control 

 Refrigeration – efficient equipment, control systems, decommissioning 

 Efficient office equipment – computers, servers

Figure 7-5 Commercial Energy Efficiency Potential Savings

0 %

1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

5 %

6 %

7 %

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Figure 7-6 Commercial Achievable Low Potential Electricity Savings by End Use in 2016

Cooling

11%

Heating

3 %

Water Heating

3 %

Ventilation

8 %

Int. Lighting

40%

Ext. Lighting

15%

Refrigeration

10%

Food Prep

1 %

Office Equip

9 %

Misc

0 %
Energy Efficiency Potential By Sector

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-5

Commercial Natural Gas Potential

Figure 7-7 presents the savings associated with the commercial natural gas achievable potential.

Figure 7-8 below shows achievable potential savings by end use. The measures with the highest 

savings are:

 Energy management systems, programmable thermostats, HVAC occupancy sensors

 Efficient boilers, boiler maintenance, steam trap repair and hot water reset

 Efficient water heaters

 Efficient food preparation equipment for the restaurant segment

 Insulation and high efficiency windows

Figure 7-7 Commercial Natural Gas Potential Savings

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Figure 7-8 Commercial Natural Gas Achievable Low Potential Savings by End Use in 2016

Heating

77%

Water Heating

17%

Food Prep

6%

Misc

0%
Energy Efficiency Potential By Sector

7-6 www.enernoc.com

Industrial Electricity Potential

The industrial sector in New Jersey only accounts for 11% of total energy consumption, but there 

are prime efficiency opportunities nonetheless. Figure 7-9 presents the potential savings for the

industrial sector. Figure 7-10 illustrates the achievable potential savings by end use for the 

industrial sector. Measures with the largest savings are: motor drives and controls, process 

timers and controls, application optimization and control (fans, pumps, compressed air), efficient 

high bay lighting, efficient ventilation systems, energy management systems and programmable 

thermostats.

Figure 7-9 Industrial Electric Potential Savings

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings ( % of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low 

Achievable Potential High 

Figure 7-10 Industrial Achievable Low Electricity Potential Savings by End Use in 2016 

Cooling

13%

Heating

4 %

Ventilation

4 %

Int. Lighting

17%

Ext. Lighting

2 %

Motors

53%

Process

7 %

Misc

0 %
Energy Efficiency Potential By Sector

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 7-7

Industrial Natural Gas Potential

Figure 7-11 present the savings for the various types of potential considered in this study for the 

industrial sector. Figure 7-12 illustrates the achievable potential savings by natural gas end use.

Measures with the highest savings are: energy management systems, programmable 

thermostats, efficient boilers and furnaces, and insulation.

Figure 7-11 Industrial Natural Gas Potential Savings

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy Savings (% of Baseline Forecast)

Achievable Potential Low

Achievable Potential High

Figure 7-12 Industrial Natural Gas Achievable Low Potential Savings by End Use in 2016 

Heating

87%

Process

13%

Misc

0 %

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 8-1

CHAPTER 8

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The results of this study reveal that significant energy efficiency opportunities exist in New 

Jersey, despite appliance and efficiency standards and a challenging macroeconomic 

environment. Our analysis has shown that New Jersey can realize an achievable range of 

reductions from 3.1% to 5.8% of the forecasted 2016 electric load, as well as 0.9% to 1.9% of 

the forecasted 2016 natural gas load, by implementing the measures presented in this report.

New Jersey’s energy-efficiency programs have a strong legacy, ample market momentum, and a 

good platform to deliver joint electric and natural gas programs on a uniform, statewide basis. 

The suite of programs is being evaluated for the next four-year planning cycle, and based on this 

study, EnerNOC provides the following recommendations for the programs.

General Recommendations 

 Capitalize on joint electric and natural gas programs: Since the New Jersey Office of 

Clean Energy manages the statewide energy efficiency portfolio in all New Jersey electric and 

natural gas utility territories, there is a good opportunity to create cross-cutting programs 

with uniform marketing messages for combined electric and natural gas savings opportunities 

for customers. This should allow for cost savings and administrative savings.

 Increase focus on business programs: Our study shows that the majority of energy 

efficiency potential exists in the commercial and industrial sectors. Historically, 60-70% of 

the New Jersey EE budgets have been allocated to residential programs. The NJOCE should 

consider increasing program efforts in the C&I sectors, not only to harvest larger EE savings, 

but to increase business competitiveness and decrease operating costs. Additionally, these 

sectors offer larger projects, which can be bundled more easily with creative financing and 

incentives.

 Collaboration among stakeholders: The discourse and information sharing between 

NJOCE, CEEEPS, stakeholders, implementers, and EnerNOC on this study has been efficient

and transparent. Continuing this trend to cultivate a mutual understanding of continuous 

improvement and development is of paramount importance to the future success of 

programs. We recommend a continued interaction among these parties with regular touch 

points and workshops. Possible workshop topics are: technical resource manual with deemed 

measure databases; evaluation, measurement, and verification protocols; emerging 

technologies; innovative program strategies; periodic reviews of program results; and 

sharing success stories from individual programs or customers.

Residential Recommendations 

 Focus on lighting: The largest share of achievable energy efficiency potential in the 

residential sector continues to come from CFLs. This is in spite of the forthcoming EISA 

standards that will reduce their per-unit savings compared to the new baseline. Also, New 

Jersey should focus strong attention on specialty lamps, as they are not addressed in the 

EISA standard.

 Appliance recycling programs show considerable promise: Recycling programs for 

appliances such as second refrigerators and room air conditioners show a considerable 

amount of potential, and should be considered for the New Jersey market. Consider ways to 

combine this offering with trade allies or market partners who are delivering other appliance 

related programs. 
Conclusions and Recommendations

8-2 www.enernoc.com

 Develop whole-house opportunities: Measures such as duct sealing, insulation, energy 

management systems, and programmable thermostats offer opportunities for a jointly 

delivered electric and natural gas program for whole-house savings. 

 Investigate behavioral feedback programs: Behavioral change programs have 

traditionally not been formal components of energy efficiency portfolios, largely due to 

difficulties in measuring and attributing savings. However, there is mounting evidence that 

these programs do produce measurable savings and program administrators around the 

country are beginning to aim personalized messaging, energy reports, and other media at 

customers in an effort to reduce their energy usage. This study includes fairly conservative 

assumptions regarding savings, penetration rates, and program rollouts for a “behavioral 

feedback tools” measure for the residential sector. The measure passed the cost 

effectiveness screen and contributed meaningful savings to the portfolio. While the impacts 

are relatively small compared to other measures (< 1% of total energy savings), this is a 

new and emerging opportunity that may undergo meaningful change in the coming years. 

For New Jersey, this would be an interesting opportunity to keep in mind, as it is a program 

that lends itself well to the combined statewide electric and natural gas delivery framework. 

 Consider social media avenues for targeted program delivery: As internet social 

media paradigms become the norm in today’s wired society, companies like Groupon, 

Amazon Local Deals, and Living Social have assembled a nationwide network of businesses 

into a well-oiled, rebate-issuing machine. NJOCE should consider if there are opportunities to 

link their energy efficiency trade ally network to one of these companies to facilitate the 

target marketing, processing, and delivery of rebates. These vendors have sophisticated 

tracking systems and databases that may facilitate EM&V reporting on the back end as well.

Commercial and Industrial Recommendations 

 Aggressively pursue lighting savings: The commercial sector in particular has significant 

savings potential in lighting, both interior, exterior, screw-in, and high bay. Savings are also 

available through occupancy sensors, timers, and energy management systems. NJOCE 

should strongly pursue lighting savings to accelerate the phase out of T12 fluorescent 

lighting. In particular, program efforts can help intercept building operators before they 

make purchase and stocking decisions that could lead to the hoarding of T12 lamps. 

 Create customized, multi-year plans for large, complex customers: For large 

customers, strategic energy management (SEM) 11 initiatives can deliver savings over longer 

time horizons. This means a larger tracking and time commitment, but many jurisdictions are 

finding this to be a more effective method than a “one and done” installation and rebate 

approach. These relationships involve personalized plans, identification of metrics, goalsetting, technical assistance, and attention from dedicated account executives or energy 

coaches. This is similar to the current “Energy Savings Improvement Plan” program, and 

administrators should consider expanding or refining it to cater to New Jersey’s largest C&I 

customers. 

 Focus industrial program efforts on motor controls and system optimizations: The 

savings for the industrial sector are all about control and optimization of motors and 

processes. Low-cost retrofits can often have significant energy impacts with minimal 

disruption of (and often times improvement of) business processes. 

 Target niches with segment specific programs: There are specific segments that offer 

considerable savings potential, but will not typically be reached by standard rebate programs 

and generic business programs. Consider whether it makes sense to initiate a specifically 

targeted program such as one for food preparation equipment in restaurants or refrigeration 

equipment in grocery stores. 

 

11 Sometimes called Continuous Energy Improvement (CEI).
Conclusions and Recommendations

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting 8-3
EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

500 Ygnacio Valley Road, Suite 450

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

P: 925.482.2000

F: 925.284.3147

About EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting

EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting is part of EnerNOC Utility Solutions group, which 

provides a comprehensive suite of demand-side management (DSM) services to 

utilities and grid operators worldwide. Hundreds of utilities have leveraged our 

technology, our people, and our proven processes to make their energy efficiency 

(EE) and demand response (DR) initiatives a success. Utilities trust EnerNOC to work 

with them at every stage of the DSM program lifecycle – assessing market potential, 

designing effective programs, implementing those programs, and measuring program 

results. 

EnerNOC Utility Solutions delivers value to our utility clients through two separate 

practice areas – Program Implementation and EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting.

• Our Program Implementation team leverages EnerNOC’s deep “behind-the-meter 

expertise” and world-class technology platform to help utilities create and 

manage DR and EE programs that deliver reliable and cost-effective energy 

savings. We focus exclusively on the commercial and industrial (C&I) customer 

segments, with a track record of successful partnerships that spans more than a 

decade. Through a focus on high quality, measurable savings, EnerNOC has 

successfully delivered hundreds of thousands of MWh of energy efficiency for 

our utility clients, and we have thousands of MW of demand response capacity 

under management.

• The EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting team provides expertise and analysis 

to support a broad range of utility DSM activities, including: potential 

assessments; end-use forecasts; integrated resource planning; EE, DR, and 

smart grid pilot and program design and administration; load research; 

technology assessments and demonstrations; evaluation, measurement and 

verification; and regulatory support. 

The EnerNOC Utility Solutions Consulting team has decades of combined experience 

in the utility DSM industry. The staff is comprised of professional electrical, 

mechanical, chemical, civil, industrial, and environmental engineers as well as 

economists, business planners, project managers, market researchers, load research 

professionals, and statisticians. Utilities view our experts as trusted advisors, and we 

work together collaboratively to make any DSM initiative a success.