# 14-i 

# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 14-2

14.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case ................................................................................. 14-5

Table 14.4.2 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL1) .......... 14-6

Table 14.4.3 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL2) .......... 14-6

Table 14.4.4 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL3) .......... 14-7

Table 14.4.5 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL4) .......... 14-7

Table 14.4.6 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL5) .......... 14-8

Table 14.4.7 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario

(TSL1) ................................................................................................................ 14-8

Table 14.4.8 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario

(TSL2) ................................................................................................................ 14-9

Table 14.4.9 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario

(TSL3) ................................................................................................................ 14-9

Table 14.4.10 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario

(TSL4) .............................................................................................................. 14-10

Table 14.4.11 IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRL Lamp Substitution Scenario

(TSL5) .............................................................................................................. 14-10

Table 14.4.12 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shif t, High Lighting Expertise (TSL1) ........... 14-11

Table 14.4.13 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shif t, High Lighting Expertise (TSL2) ........... 14-11

Table 14.4.14 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shif t, High Lighting Expertise (TSL3) ........... 14-12

Table 14.4.15 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shif t, High Lighting Expertise (TSL4) ........... 14-12

Table 14.4.16 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shif t, High Lighting Expertise (TSL5) ........... 14-13

Table 14.4.17 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Ma rket Segment Based Lighting

Expertise (TSL1) .............................................................................................. 14-13

Table 14.4.18 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Ma rket Segment Based Lighting

Expertise (TSL2) .............................................................................................. 14-14

Table 14.4.19 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Ma rket Segment Based Lighting

Expertise (TSL3) .............................................................................................. 14-14

Table 14.4.20 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Ma rket Segment Based Lighting

Expertise (TSL4) .............................................................................................. 14-15

Table 14.4.21 GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Ma rket Segment Based Lighting

Expertise (TSL5) .............................................................................................. 14-15

# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation

capacity of the Nation which would be expected to result from th e adoption of amended efficacy

efficiency standards. DOE used a version of EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

for this utility impact analyses. a 

# NEMS which is available in the public domain is a large, multisectoral, partial equilibri um model of the U.S. energy sector. EIA uses NEMS to produce its

AEO, a widely recognized baseline energy forecast for the United States. The version of NEMS

used for appliance standards analysis is called NEMS-BT and is primarily based on the April

Update of the AEO2009 b 

# with minor modifications. c 

# The NEMS-BT offers a sophisticated

picture of the effect of sta ndards, since it accounts for the in teractions between the various

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole.

The utility impact analysis re ports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by

fuel type, that result from the adoption of amende d efficacy standards at each trial standard level

(TSL), as well as changes in residential, co mmercial and industrial sector electricity

consumption.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in

the analysis of efficacy standards. N EMS-BT us es a set of assumptions that are well known and

fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the mode ling of interactions among the various energy

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the

effects of efficacy standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate

marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficacy standards than

considering only average effects.

The utility impact analysis us es the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats the effects on

electricity of efficacy improvements due to the deployment of amended general service

a 

# For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling Sy stem: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003. ( http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ft proot/forecasting/05812003.pdf )

b 

# An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Ca se Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and

Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, April 2009.

c 

# The EIA approves the use of the name NEMS to describe only an AEO version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because the present analys is entails some minor code modifications and runs the

model under various policy scenarios that deviate from AEO assumptions, the name NEMS-BT refers to the model

as used here. (“BT” stands for DOE’s Building Technologies Program.)

# 14-2 

# fluorescent lamp (GSFL) and incandescent reflector lamp (IRL) efficacy standards as variations

in polic1. The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009

Reference Case and each proposed standard ca se. Because the implementation of standards

reduces total electricity demand by a relativel y small amount (in many cases less than one

percent) in any given year, its e ffect cannot be detected directly in the simulations. Therefore,

DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and in terpolated results for the TSLs. DOE assumed

the effects to be linear within th e range of interpolation. This me thod is discussed in more detail

below and in Appendix 14A.

DOE was unable to consider the Hi gh and Low Economic Growth Cases of AEO2009 for

the utility impact analysis because these cases were developed for the March release of the

AEO2009. The April version included a revise d macroeconomic forecast reflecting an updated

view of economic growth. As a result, the March cases are not compatible with the updated

AEO2009 Reference Case.

14.3 METHOD

NEMS-BT models certain policy scenarios, su ch as the effect of reduced electricity

consumption, for each trial standard level. The an alysis output provides a forecast for the needed

power generation capacity and generation by fuel at each TSL. The estimated net benefit of the

standard is the difference between th e forecasted results by NEMS-BT and the AEO2009

Reference Case.

DOE used the national energy savings develope d in the national impact analysis (Chapter

11) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The ma gnitude of the energy decrement that would be

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numeri cal noise is generally

larger than the highest efficacy standard under co nsideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed

description of the in terpolation method is given in Appendix 14A.

Policy runs are executed by reducing el ectricity consumption in the NEMS-BT

Residential, Commercial and Industrial (when appropriate) Demand Modules. Energy use

reductions are applied to the ligh ting end use in each sector.

Although the amended GSFL and IRL efficacy standards lead to greater electricity

demand reductions than most of the other previo us standards, the price impacts based on NEMSBT runs performed for this rulemaking are still projected to be quite sm all. The case with the

greatest projected lighting savi ngs (the Max Tech case (TSL 5) for the General Service

Fluorescent Lamps Existing Technology Scenario) projec ts electricity generati on reductions of at

most 1.0 percent in any year. The maximum decrease in average electricity prices is 0.6 percent

in a year, and the average over the period 2012 to 2030 is only 0.4 percent.

# 14-3 

# Further, the rapid turnover of lamp stock leads to energy savings that rise quickly and

then plateau over time. This pattern of savings yields a relatively complex intertemporal pattern

of utility investment and prices. It is possibl e that price reductions may occur in some years,

while prices rise in other year s, as capital expenditures may be deferred and then be required

later. The end result is that the inter-temporal nature of capital stock turnover in the power

industry means that price impacts do not smoothly rise over time.

In addition, the distribution a nd pricing of electricity is regulated everywhere, wherein

institutional structure varies and the pricing of upstream components (i.e., generation and

transmission) are frequently complicated applyi ng different price setting methods across the

country. The power sector entiti es impacted by the price changes due to the application of the

appliance efficiency standard are a heterogene ous group. They include re gulated distribution and

transmission companies, regulated generation or vertically integrated power companies, and

unregulated generation companies.

While DOE considered reporting the electricit y price impacts as a part of the utility

impact analysis, due to the significant uncertainty of projecting prices, the complexity of the

power industry (including the variety of utility re gulation in the U.S.), and the relatively small

impact of amended efficacy standards on prices it was determined that these considerations

should not be weighed heavily in the decisi on about the standard level. These timing

complexities along with geographic and regulator y diversity make it virtually impossible to

unwind societal benefits fr om these price impacts.

Although the current time hor izon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the analyses for

GSFL and IRL amended efficacy standards extend to the year 2042. It is not feasible to extend

the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an

approved method for extrapolation of ma ny outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by

extrapolations of those outputs could be incons istent with the extrapolation of marginal

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great de al of uncertainty.

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the

extrapolation period. Only changes that have be en announced with date-certain introduction are

included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapol ated results wherever they appear, they are

shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

# 14-4 

# 14.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity,

and residential, commercial and industrial-s ector consumption. Results are for all TSLs

presented in five-year increments to year 2030 fo r the Reference Case. Only the results for the

proposed TSL for IRL and GSFL are reported fo r the High and Low Growth cases. Again,

beyond the year 2030, an extrapolation to 2042 for each proposed TSL is represented by a simple

replication of the year 2030 results.

The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1. A separate set

of TSLs are modeled for each lamp technology. A tota l of five TSLs are modeled for each of the

two appliance technologies, IRLs and GSFLs. In addition, for each technology, two scenarios

are evaluated:

 For IRL, DOE evaluated Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Substitution scenario and the

Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up, BR Lamp Substitu tion scenario as the high and low range

estimates, respectively.

 For GSFL, DOE evaluated the Existing Tec hnologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise

scenario and the Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up, Market Segment Based Lighting

Expertise scenario as the high and low range estimates respectively.

For additional discussion of the formulation of these scenarios, see TSD Chapter 10.

The NEMS-BT results including the difference from the Reference Case results for the

IRL are presented in Tables 14.4.4 through 14.4.13. Th ese tables also pres ent the results across

the two scenarios. A parallel set of tables for the GSFL ar e presented in Tables 14.4.14 to

14.4.23. Each table also includes the extr apolation of the results to 2042.

Amended IRL efficacy standards result in decr eases to electricity consumption for all

TSLs compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case under both scenarios. Power generation

capacity is either unaffected or reduced by up to 1400 MW.

Amended GSFL efficacy standards result in de creases to electricity consumption for all

TSLs compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case under both scenar ios as well. Power generation

capacity is affected to a greater extent due to the larger decreases to electricity consumption

associated with their adoption. Power generati on capacity is reduced between 900 MW (for TSL

1 under the Roll-Up scenario) to 7.3 GW (for TSL 5 under the Shift scenario).

# Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case

14-5 6 

# Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT Results

Reference Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,663

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 926 999 1,020 1,026 986

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265

P e t r o l e u m G e n e r a t i o n ( T W h ) 5 2 4 3 4 5 4 6 4

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 701 560 617 795 855

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 809 831 878 884 893

Renewables Generation (TWh) 431 591 641 673 680

Total Generation (TWh) 3,996 4,141 4,345 4,565 4,740

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 195 196 197 219 235

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 138 134 141 164 189

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 104 111 111 110

Renewables Capacity (GW) 147 177 177 180 182

Total Capacity (GW) 1,021 1,030 1,046 1,095 1,147Table 14.4.2IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL1)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,507 1,620 1,741 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,406 1,476 1,569 1,662 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(0.8)(0.9)(1.1)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.5)(0.3)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 559 616 795 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.2(0.5)(0.7)(0.7)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Generation (TWh)431 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.2)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,140 4,344 4,563 4,738 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(1.4)(1.4)(1.6)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)0.00.00.00.0Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,030 1,046 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Table 14.4.3IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL2)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,506 1,619 1,740 1,864 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,475 1,569 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.6)(1.7)(2.0)(2.3)(2.3)(2.3)(2.3)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.10.10.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,166 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(1.2)(0.6)(0.7)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 558 615 794 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.4(1.3)(1.6)(1.8)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Renewables Generation (TWh)431 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.4)(0.7)(0.9)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,138 4,342 4,561 4,736 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(3.2)(3.3)(3.6)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)0.10.10.10.1Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)14-6Table 14.4.4IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL3)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,505 1,618 1,739 1,862 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(2.8)(2.7)(2.8)(3.0)(3.0)(3.0)(3.0)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,404 1,474 1,567 1,659 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(2.7)(3.0)(3.4)(3.9)(3.9)(3.9)(3.9)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.10.20.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,113 2,163 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(2.1)(1.3)(1.5)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 558 614 792 852 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.7(2.2)(2.8)(2.9)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 590 639 671 678 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.7)(1.4)(1.7)(1.9)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,135 4,339 4,558 4,733 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(5.7)(5.9)(6.4)(7.1)(7.1)(7.1)(7.1)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)0.10.10.10.1Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.6)(0.7)(0.9)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)Table 14.4.5IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL4)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,504 1,617 1,738 1,862 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(3.4)(3.3)(3.3)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,404 1,473 1,566 1,658 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(3.5)(3.8)(4.3)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,021 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.10.20.20.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,113 2,163 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(2.6)(1.4)(1.7)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)702 557 613 792 852 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.8(2.7)(3.4)(3.6)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 590 639 670 677 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.8)(1.9)(2.3)(2.4)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,134 4,338 4,557 4,731 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(7.1)(7.3)(7.9)(9.0)(9.0)(9.0)(9.0)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(0.1)(0.2)(0.3)0.10.10.10.1Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 176 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.3)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.3)(0.7)(0.9)(1.0)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)14-7Table 14.4.6IRL Existing Technologies, Shift R-CFL Substitution Scenario (TSL5)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,503 1,6171,738 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(3.9)(3.9)(3.9)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,403 1,4721,566 1,657 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(3.9)(4.4)(5.0)(5.8)(5.8)(5.8)(5.8)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,021 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.10.20.20.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,162 2,166 2,262 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.1(2.8)(1.6)(1.7)(3.0)(3.0)(3.0)(3.0)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)702 556 613 791 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.9(3.2)(4.0)(4.4)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 589 638 670 677 Renewables Generation (TWh)(1.0)(2.1)(2.6)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,133 4,337 4,556 4,730 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(8.2)(8.5)(9.1)(10.2)(10.2)(10.2)(10.2)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 420 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 176 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.3)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.3)(0.9)(1.1)(1.3)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)Table 14.4.7IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRLLamp Substitution Scenario (TSL1)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,507 1,6211,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(0.1)0.00.00.00.00.00.0Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,407 1,4761,570 1,662 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(0.2)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 559 617 795 855 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.1(0.3)(0.3)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Generation (TWh)431 591 641 672 680 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,140 4,345 4,564 4,739 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,030 1,046 1,095 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)14-8Table 14.4.8IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRLLamp Substitution Scenario (TSL2)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(0.3)0.10.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,406 1,4751,569 1,661 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(1.1)(1.2)(1.2)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,115 2,164 2,167 2,265 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(0.5)(0.3)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 559 616 795 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.2(0.7)(0.6)(0.6)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Generation (TWh)431 591 641 672 680 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,139 4,344 4,564 4,739 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(1.5)(1.2)(1.2)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.1Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,030 1,046 1,095 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Table 14.4.9IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRLLamp Substitution Scenario (TSL3)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,507 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(0.7)0.10.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,4741,568 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(2.2)(2.5)(2.5)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.00.10.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,167 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(1.1)(0.6)(0.6)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 559 616 794 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.5(1.2)(1.1)(1.1)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.5)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,138 4,343 4,562 4,737 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(3.0)(2.5)(2.5)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.00.00.00.10.20.20.20.2Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)14-9Table 14.4.10IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRLLamp Substitution Scenario (TSL4)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,506 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(0.9)0.10.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,4741,568 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(2.5)(2.8)(2.8)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.10.10.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,167 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(1.2)(0.7)(0.7)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 558 615 794 854 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.6(1.5)(1.3)(1.3)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.6)(0.8)(0.8)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,137 4,342 4,562 4,737 Total Generation (TWh)(0.0)(3.5)(2.8)(2.9)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.00.00.00.10.20.20.20.2Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Table 14.4.11IRL Emerging Technologies Roll-up BRLLamp Substitution Scenario (TSL5)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,506 1,621 1,742 1,865 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(1.1)0.10.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,404 1,4731,567 1,659 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(2.9)(3.4)(3.3)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 999 1,020 1,026 986 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.10.10.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,166 2,264 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(1.4)(0.8)(0.8)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 558 615 794 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.7(1.9)(1.7)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 591 640 672 679 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.7)(0.8)(0.8)(0.9)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,137 4,342 4,561 4,736 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(4.2)(3.3)(3.4)(4.0)(4.0)(4.0)(4.0)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 141 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.00.00.10.10.30.30.30.3Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 177 177 180 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)14-10Table 14.4.12GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL1)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,505 1,618 1,738 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(2.8)(3.1)(3.4)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,406 1,475 1,568 1,661 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(0.7)(1.5)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 997 1,017 1,022 982 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(2.3)(3.0)(3.5)(4.0)(4.0)(4.0)(4.0)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,113 2,162 2,165 2,262 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(2.3)(2.4)(2.3)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 558 613 791 850 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.7(2.2)(3.7)(4.8)(4.6)(4.6)(4.6)(4.6)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 590 639 670 678 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.7)(1.5)(1.7)(2.2)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,135 4,337 4,555 4,729 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(6.0)(8.0)(9.7)(11.0)(11.0)(11.0)(11.0)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 420 421 430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.9)(1.1)(1.4)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)Table 14.4.13GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL2)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,504 1,617 1,738 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(3.5)(3.3)(3.6)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,406 1,475 1,568 1,660 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(0.8)(1.7)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 996 1,017 1,022 982 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(2.6)(3.2)(3.7)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,161 2,164 2,261 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1)(3.0)(2.7)(3.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.00.00.00.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)702 558 614 792 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)1.1(1.2)(2.5)(3.6)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 588 638 669 676 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.9)(3.2)(3.3)(3.6)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,134 4,336 4,554 4,728 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(7.4)(8.7)(10.6)(12.1)(12.1)(12.1)(12.1)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)0.00.00.00.0Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 176 179 181 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.3)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,044 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.3)(1.1)(1.3)(1.6)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)14-11Table 14.4.14GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL3)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,496 1,607 1,726 1,849 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(11.3)(13.5)(16.0)(16.1)(16.1)(16.1)(16.1)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,406 1,474 1,566 1,658 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.2)(2.6)(4.2)(4.6)(4.6)(4.6)(4.6)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 996 1,017 1,022 982 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(2.6)(3.0)(3.6)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,109 2,159 2,161 2,257 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0)(6.1)(5.5)(6.5)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)703 555 609 785 845 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)2.4(4.2)(7.4)(10.2)(9.5)(9.5)(9.5)(9.5)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 877 883 892 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.7)(0.9)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)Renewables Generation (TWh)429 586 634 665 673 Renewables Generation (TWh)(2.3)(5.6)(6.7)(7.6)(7.2)(7.2)(7.2)(7.2)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,125 4,325 4,540 4,714 Total Generation (TWh)0.1(15.9)(20.2)(25.1)(26.1)(26.1)(26.1)(26.1)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420429 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 234 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.1)(0.8)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 163 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.6)(0.9)(1.1)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 110 110 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)146 175 175 178 181 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.7)(1.6)(1.6)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)Total Capacity (GW)1,020 1,027 1,042 1,090 1,143 Total Capacity (GW)(0.8)(2.6)(3.2)(4.3)(4.7)(4.7)(4.7)(4.7)Table 14.4.15GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL4)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,485 1,597 1,718 1,842 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.1(22.3)(23.6)(24.3)(23.6)(23.6)(23.6)(23.6)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,473 1,564 1,656 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.1(1.6)(3.9)(6.2)(7.0)(7.0)(7.0)(7.0)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 994 1,016 1,021 981 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.1(5.1)(4.3)(4.2)(4.5)(4.5)(4.5)(4.5)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,103 2,156 2,158 2,254 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.3(11.9)(8.2)(9.3)(11.5)(11.5)(11.5)(11.5)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)705 547 600 778 839 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)3.9(12.5)(16.6)(17.5)(15.9)(15.9)(15.9)(15.9)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 877 883 892 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.7)(1.0)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)Renewables Generation (TWh)427 585 633 664 672 Renewables Generation (TWh)(3.9)(6.3)(8.1)(8.9)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,110 4,311 4,528 4,703 Total Generation (TWh)0.2(30.8)(33.6)(36.6)(37.3)(37.3)(37.3)(37.3)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420429 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.9)(1.0)(1.0)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 234 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.5)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 139 162 188 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.1)(1.0)(1.5)(2.1)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 110 110 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)(0.0)-(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Renewables Capacity (GW)146 175 175 178 180 Renewables Capacity (GW)(1.2)(2.0)(2.0)(2.1)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)Total Capacity (GW)1,020 1,026 1,041 1,089 1,141 Total Capacity (GW)(1.2)(4.0)(4.8)(5.9)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)14-12Table 14.4.16GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise (TSL5)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,478 1,590 1,712 1,837 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(29.5)(30.6)(29.5)(28.5)(28.5)(28.5)(28.5)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,473 1,564 1,656 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(2.0)(3.9)(6.8)(7.2)(7.2)(7.2)(7.2)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 993 1,016 1,021 981 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.1(5.5)(4.3)(4.2)(4.5)(4.5)(4.5)(4.5)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,002 2,097 2,154 2,157 2,252 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.3)(18.1)(10.5)(10.5)(13.6)(13.6)(13.6)(13.6)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)0.10.1(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)706 549 600 778 841 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)5.7(10.9)(17.3)(17.4)(14.3)(14.3)(14.3)(14.3)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 877 882 892 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(1.4)(1.9)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)Renewables Generation (TWh)426 581 629 660 667 Renewables Generation (TWh)(5.4)(10.2)(11.9)(13.0)(13.2)(13.2)(13.2)(13.2)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,102 4,304 4,522 4,698 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(39.3)(41.0)(42.8)(42.1)(42.1)(42.1)(42.1)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420429 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 139 161 187 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(1.0)(1.9)(2.9)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 110 110 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)(0.0)-(0.2)(0.2)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)145 174 174 177 179 Renewables Capacity (GW)(1.6)(3.1)(3.1)(3.0)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)Total Capacity (GW)1,019 1,025 1,040 1,087 1,140 Total Capacity (GW)(1.6)(4.8)(6.1)(7.3)(7.3)(7.3)(7.3)(7.3)Table 14.4.17GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise (TSL1)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,505 1,619 1,740 1,863 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(2.2)(2.0)(1.9)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,662 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0)(0.3)(0.8)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 998 1,019 1,024 984 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(0.6)(1.2)(1.7)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,114 2,163 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1)(1.4)(1.3)(1.4)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 559 616 793 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.5(0.5)(1.2)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Renewables Generation (TWh)431 590 639 671 678 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.5)(1.4)(1.5)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,138 4,341 4,560 4,734 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(3.3)(4.2)(5.1)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 134 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)(0.0)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.1)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.5)(0.7)(0.8)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)14-13Table 14.4.18GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise (TSL2)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,504 1,618 1,740 1,863 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(2.9)(2.2)(1.8)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,661 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(0.4)(1.0)(1.8)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 997 1,018 1,023 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.9)(2.0)(2.2)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,162 2,166 2,263 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0)(2.8)(1.5)(1.6)(2.3)(2.3)(2.3)(2.3)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)701 558 614 793 853 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)0.7(1.5)(2.3)(2.5)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 590 639 671 678 Renewables Generation (TWh)(0.7)(1.4)(1.6)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,135 4,339 4,559 4,733 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(5.6)(5.6)(6.1)(6.8)(6.8)(6.8)(6.8)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 421 421430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)0.00.00.00.0Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)(0.0)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 177 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Total Capacity (GW)1,021 1,029 1,045 1,094 1,147 Total Capacity (GW)(0.2)(0.6)(0.7)(0.8)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)Table 14.4.19GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise (TSL3)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,502 1,616 1,737 1,861 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(5.6)(4.7)(4.4)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,406 1,474 1,566 1,658 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.2)(2.7)(4.1)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 997 1,018 1,023 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.9)(1.9)(2.1)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,112 2,161 2,164 2,262 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1)(3.7)(2.7)(3.0)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)702 557 613 791 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)1.5(3.0)(4.1)(4.7)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Renewables Generation (TWh)430 589 638 669 677 Renewables Generation (TWh)(1.4)(2.5)(2.8)(3.2)(3.0)(3.0)(3.0)(3.0)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,132 4,335 4,554 4,728 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(9.2)(9.8)(11.2)(11.6)(11.6)(11.6)(11.6)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 164 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0(0.2)(0.3)(0.4)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)147 176 176 179 182 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.4)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)Total Capacity (GW)1,020 1,028 1,044 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.4)(1.3)(1.5)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)14-1414-15Table 14.4.20GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise (TSL4)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,501 1,617 1,739 1,862 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(6.4)(3.7)(3.2)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,473 1,565 1,657 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.8)(4.1)(6.0)(6.3)(6.3)(6.3)(6.3)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 994 1,016 1,022 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(4.7)(3.8)(3.3)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,109 2,161 2,164 2,261 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0(5.8)(2.8)(3.5)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0(0.1)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)703 555 612 790 851 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)2.2(4.3)(5.2)(5.2)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 884 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Renewables Generation (TWh)429 588 637 668 676 Renewables Generation (TWh)(2.1)(3.5)(4.0)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,127 4,333 4,552 4,726 Total Generation (TWh)0.1(13.6)(12.2)(13.2)(13.5)(13.5)(13.5)(13.5)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 419 420 420430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 164 190 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)0.50.50.50.5Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)(0.0)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)146 176 176 179 181 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.7)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)Total Capacity (GW)1,020 1,028 1,044 1,093 1,146 Total Capacity (GW)(0.7)(1.6)(1.7)(1.7)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)Table 14.4.21GSFL Emerging Tech., Roll up, Market Segment Based Lighting Expertise (TSL5)Utility Impact Analysis - NEMS BT ResultsDifference From Updated AEO2009 ReferenceExptrapolation2010 2015 2020 2025 20302010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Electricity SalesElectricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh)1,402 1,497 1,612 1,733 1,857 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0(10.0)(8.8)(8.9)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)1,403 1,405 1,473 1,565 1,657 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(1.6)(3.7)(5.6)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)926 994 1,017 1,022 983 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0(4.7)(3.8)(3.3)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)GenerationGenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,003 2,108 2,159 2,162 2,259 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1)(7.0)(4.9)(5.3)(6.3)(6.3)(6.3)(6.3)Petroleum Generation (TWh)52 43 45 46 46 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Natural Gas Generation (TWh)703 553 609 787 848 Natural Gas Generation (TWh)2.4(6.4)(7.9)(8.3)(7.3)(7.3)(7.3)(7.3)Nuclear Generation (TWh)809 831 878 883 893 Nuclear Generation (TWh)-(0.0)(0.4)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)Renewables Generation (TWh)429 588 637 668 676 Renewables Generation (TWh)(2.2)(3.8)(3.9)(4.6)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)(4.1)Total Generation (TWh)3,996 4,124 4,328 4,546 4,722 Total Generation (TWh)0.0(17.3)(17.1)(18.8)(18.4)(18.4)(18.4)(18.4)CapacityCapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 439 418 420 420430 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)195 196 197 219 235 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW)138 133 140 163 189 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) (0.0)(0.4)(0.6)(0.7)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Nuclear Capacity (GW)101 104 111 111 110 Nuclear Capacity (GW)(0.0)-(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)Renewables Capacity (GW)146 176 176 179 181 Renewables Capacity (GW)(0.7)(1.3)(1.3)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)Total Capacity (GW)1,020 1,028 1,043 1,092 1,145 Total Capacity (GW)(0.7)(2.1)(2.5)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)

# 14-16 

# REFERENCES

a 

# U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with

Projections to 2030 . 2009: Washington, DC. ( 

# http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ )