## Vented Hearth Products Energy Use and National Energy Savings

Prepared for Final Rule

**Standing Pilot Energy use per unit** Vented Decorative Hearth Products

**National Energy Savings (NES)** April 2010 Final Rule NES Results April 2010 Final Rule Heated Hearth Product NES (2013-2042)

NES Results April 2010 Final Rule Vented Hearth Heaters NES minus Decorative Units (2013-2042)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products NES from Pilot Removal (2015-2044) **Total Vented Hearth Heaters and Decorative Hearth Products NES**

**Net additional NES after accounting for April 2010 Heating Products Final Rule**MMBtu/yr 2.61

Quads 0.19

Quads 0.06 Quads 0.17 **Quads 0.22** 

**Quads 0.04** 

## Pilot Light Energy Use per Unit

**Vented Decorative Hearth Products Parameter**  **Units** Annual Burner Hours of Operation (Average) hours/yr

**Pilot light used year round:**

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light year round % Average Hours of year-round continuous pilot light operation hours

**Pilot light used part of the year:** Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light for a part of the year % Average Hours of partial year continuous pilot light operation hours

**Pilot light used only when unit is use:**

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light only when the unit is in use % Average Hours when unit is in use pilot light operation hours

Pilot Hours of Operation (Average) hours/yr Pilot Energy Use per hour (Average) Btu/h Annual Energy Use of Pilot Light Ignition (Average) MMBtu/yr

**Pilot Light Energy Use References: Reference Type**  **Value (Btu/h)** GRI Report (Field Testing of 59 Hearth Households) 500 to 2800 (avg. 1300) Intertek Testing Service (Testing Service) Majority less than 800 Heatilator (Major Manufacturer) 800 to 1500 EER Consulting (HVAC consulting company) 1000 to 1500 NRCAN website (Government Agency in Canada) 600 to 1500 Pittsburg Gas Grill and Heater Co. (Distributor/Dealer) 1000 Leonard's Stone & Fireplace (Distributor/Dealer) 800 to 1500 Fireside Hearth & Home (Distributor/Dealer) 800 to 1500 Fireplace Professionals (Distributor/Dealer) 600 to 900**Average Value**

37.5

25% 8760

50% 2190

25% 37.5

3257 800 **2.61**

**Product Type** Hearth Gas Logs & Fireplaces Hearth Gas Fireplaces Gas Fireplaces Hearth Hearth Hearth Hearth**References**

Houck, James. Residential Decorative Gas Fireplace Usage Characteristic. Report prepared for HPBA. 2010.

on conversations with manufacturers, distributors, dealers, and installers). DOE assumed this was the same for vented decorative hearth products. 8760 hours in a year

100% minus (year round fraction) minus (used when unit is in use fraction) Based on NOPR comments that frequently hearth product pilot lights are only on during the heating season (i.e. on average used 1/4 of the year).

propane fireplace units (23% according to RECS 2009) as well as for other NG units which might be operated in this way. Equals burner operating hours.

Calculated Based on various sources (see below)

**Complete Reference** GRI 1997 Study: Menkedick, J., Hartford, P., Collins, S., Chumaker, S., Wells, D. “Topic Report: Hearth Products Study (1995-1997)”. Gas Research Institute (GRI). September 1997. GRI-97/0298. Intertek Testing Service. NOPR Comment # 0198 to Hearth Products NOPR. (http://www.regulations.gov/#%21docketDetail;dct=FR+PR+N+O+SR+PS;rpp=50;so=DESC;sb=postedDate;po=0;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0047) Heatilator. Common Questions. (URL: http://www.heatilator.com/customerCare/searchFaq.asp?c=Gas) EER Consulting, “Input Rate of Pilot Burners on Gas Fireplaces” (Consultant Report). EER Consulting. November 6, 2011. NRCAN. Personal: Residential: Chapter 3 - All About Gas Fireplaces (URL: http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/Publications/infosource/Pub/home/all_about_gas_fireplaces_chapter3.cfm?text=N&printview=N) Pittsburg Gas Grill and Heater Co. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.pittsburghgasgrill.com/faq.html) Leonard's Stone & Fireplace. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.leonardsstoneandfireplace.net/faq.html) Fireside Hearth & Home. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.firesidehearthandhome.com/faq.php) Fireplace Professionals. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.fireplaceprofessionals.com/faqs.htm)Based on NOPR comments that frequently hearth product pilot lights are only on during the heating season (i.e. on average used 1/4 of the year).

GRI 1997 Study: Menkedick, J., Hartford, P., Collins, S., Chumaker, S., Wells, D. “Topic Report: Hearth Products Study (1995-1997)”. Gas Research Institute (GRI). September 1997. GRI-97/0298. Intertek Testing Service. NOPR Comment # 0198 to Hearth Products NOPR. (http://www.regulations.gov/#%21docketDetail;dct=FR+PR+N+O+SR+PS;rpp=50;so=DESC;sb=postedDate;po=0;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0047)

EER Consulting, “Input Rate of Pilot Burners on Gas Fireplaces” (Consultant Report). EER Consulting. November 6, 2011. NRCAN. Personal: Residential: Chapter 3 - All About Gas Fireplaces (URL: http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/Publications/infosource/Pub/home/all_about_gas_fireplaces_chapter3.cfm?text=N&printview=N) Pittsburg Gas Grill and Heater Co. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.pittsburghgasgrill.com/faq.html) Leonard's Stone & Fireplace. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.leonardsstoneandfireplace.net/faq.html)

## National Energy Savings Analysis

Average Annual Energy Use of Pilot Ignition (MMBtu/yr) Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Fraction of Shipments Fraction of Vented Hearth vs. All Hearth Shipments Fraction of Vented Decorative Hearth Products vs. Vented Hearth

Fraction of Units with Standing Pilot Light Ignition Pilot Light Ignition (for Vented Decorative Hearth Products) Continuously Burning Standing Pilot (for Vented Decorative Hearth Products)

April 2010 NES Results April 2010 Final Rule Heated Hearth Product NES (2013-2042)

NES Results April 2010 Final Rule Vented Hearth NES minus Decorative Units (2013-2042)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products NES from Pilot Removal (2015-2044) Total Updated Vented Hearth Heaters and Decorative Hearth Products NES

Net additional NES after accounting for April 2010 Heating Products Final Rule

Average Annual Shipments (2015-2044) Vented Decorative Hearth Products

**Housing Starts vs. Hearth Product Correlation Factor** 1990-2010 2001-2010 (Used for Analysis)

**Note: Based on 15 Year Average Lifetime**

**Year** 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 **Survival Function Inputs** 

**Summary Results**23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0**Year**

1990 300,000 1991 435,000 2.61 MMBtu/yr 1992 660,000 1993 895,875 1994 1,156,382 42% Based on 2003 and 2004 shipments 1995 NA 70% Based on Houck 2010 study. 1996 NA 1997 NA 1998 1,611,750 75.0% Based on 2010 models. 1999 1,767,529 37.5% 50% of Standing Pilot Light Models 2000 1,977,484 2001 1,694,330 2002 1,716,139 2003 1,809,886 0.186 Quads 2004 2,103,685 2005 2,141,165 2006 1,739,602 0.057 Quads 2007 1,513,364 0.166 Quads 2008 1,017,078 0.223 Quads 2009 635,820 2010 650,911 0.037 Quads 2011 1,446,718 2012 1,740,975 2013 1,779,367 457,418 2014 1,751,960 2015 1,764,688 2016 1,777,743 0.84 2017 1,756,411 0.97 2018 1,746,455 2019 1,745,236 2020 1,722,703 2021 1,664,061 **Fraction Surviving** 2022 1,620,781 0.0% 2023 1,597,421 0.0% 2024 1,589,226 0.0% 2025 1,610,503 0.0% 2026 1,606,857 0.0% 2027 1,568,205 0.0% 2028 1,513,380 0.0% 2029 1,481,218 **Historical and Projected Hearth Shipments**

**Total**0.0% 2030 1,484,592

0.0% 2031 1,467,369 0.1% 2032 1,419,891 0.3% 2033 1,405,096 1.0% 2034 1,410,502 3.1% 2035 1,415,438 7.8% 2036 1,422,515 16.8% 2037 1,429,628 30.5% 2038 1,436,776 48.1% 2039 1,443,960 66.7% 2040 1,451,180 82.8% 2041 1,458,436 93.8% 2042 1,465,728 99.0% 2043 1,473,056 100.0% 2044 100.0% 2045 100.0% 2046 100.0% 2047 100.0% 2048 100.0% 2049 100.0% 2050 100.0% 2051 100.0% 2052 100.0% 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 2066**Hearth Heaters**

**and Decorative Products**  **Decorative**

**Hearth Products Hearth Heaters**  **Cumulative Affected**  **Shipments Site Energy Use** 

**(Quads)**

100,000 135,000 240,000 265,247 395,447

721,322 765,224

609,926 426,948 182,978 733,982 513,787 220,195 750,168 525,118 225,050 738,614 517,029 221,584 743,979 520,786 223,194 195,295 0.0005 749,483 524,638 224,845 392,034 0.0010 740,490 518,343 222,147 586,413 0.0015 736,293 515,405 220,888 779,689 0.0020 735,779 515,045 220,734 972,831 0.0025 726,279 508,395 217,884 1,163,479 0.0030 701,556 491,089 210,467 1,347,638 0.0035 683,309 478,317 204,993 1,527,006 0.0040 673,461 471,423 202,038 1,703,790 0.0044 670,006 469,004 201,002 1,879,666 0.0049 678,976 475,283 203,693 2,055,917 0.0054 677,439 474,207 203,232 2,221,584 0.0058 661,144 462,801 198,343 2,361,532 0.0062 638,030 446,621 191,409 2,463,968 0.0064 624,470 437,129 187,341 2,526,589 0.0066 **Vented Decorative Hearth Products Historical and Projected Hearth Shipments** 

**Vented Hearth Heaters**625,893 438,125 187,768 2,555,470 0.0067

618,632 433,042 185,590 2,556,117 0.0067 598,616 419,031 179,585 2,535,194 0.0066 592,378 414,665 177,713 2,505,143 0.0065 594,657 416,260 178,397 2,474,130 0.0064 596,738 417,717 179,021 2,445,151 0.0064 599,722 419,805 179,917 2,419,425 0.0063 602,721 421,904 180,816 2,396,831 0.0062 605,734 424,014 181,720 2,376,957 0.0062 608,763 426,134 182,629 2,359,631 0.0061 611,807 428,265 183,542 2,345,036 0.0061 614,866 430,406 184,460 2,333,508 0.0061 617,940 432,558 185,382 2,325,347 0.0061 621,030 434,721 186,309 2,320,729 0.0060 2,155,813 0.0056 1,993,402 0.0052 1,833,109 0.0048 1,674,397 0.0044 1,516,642 0.0040 1,359,237 0.0035 1,201,688 0.0031 1,043,664 0.0027 884,981 0.0023 725,552 0.0019 567,001 0.0015 416,189 0.0011 282,569 0.0007 174,639 0.0005 96,657 0.0003 47,124 0.0001 19,911 0.0001 7,174 0.0000 2,171 0.0000 543 0.0000 111 0.0000 18 0.0000 2 0.0000**Source Energy**

**Use (Quads) Cumulative** 

**Affected Shipments**  **Site Energy Use -**

**Gas (Quads) Site Energy Use -** 

**Elec (TWh) Source Energy** 

**Use - Gas (Quads)** 

225,050 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 446,634 0.0003 -0.003 0.0004 0.0006 669,828 0.0005 -0.004 0.0006 0.0011 894,673 0.0007 -0.005 0.0008 0.0017 1,116,820 0.0009 -0.007 0.0009 0.0022 1,337,708 0.0010 -0.008 0.0011 0.0027 1,558,442 0.0012 -0.009 0.0013 0.0033 1,776,325 0.0014 -0.011 0.0015 0.0038 1,986,792 0.0015 -0.012 0.0017 0.0043 2,191,785 0.0017 -0.013 0.0019 0.0048 2,391,540 0.0019 -0.014 0.0020 0.0054 2,578,581 0.0020 -0.015 0.0022 0.0059 2,743,827 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0063 2,872,684 0.0022 -0.017 0.0025 0.0067 2,955,096 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 0.0070 2,991,318 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 0.0072 2,992,881 0.0023 -0.018 0.0026 **Vented Decorative Hearth Products 2013 Standard for Hearth Products**  **NIA Calculations**0.0073 2,975,293 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025

0.0073 2,945,560 0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 0.0072 2,906,431 0.0023 -0.017 0.0025 0.0071 2,865,834 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 0.0070 2,828,293 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 0.0070 2,794,606 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 0.0069 2,765,082 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 0.0068 2,739,239 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0068 2,716,523 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0067 2,696,721 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0067 2,680,041 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0066 2,666,867 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0066 2,657,539 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0066 2,652,262 0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 0.0061 2,463,786 0.0019 -0.015 0.0021 0.0057 2,278,174 0.0018 -0.014 0.0019 0.0052 2,094,982 0.0016 -0.013 0.0018 0.0048 1,913,596 0.0015 -0.011 0.0016 0.0043 1,733,305 0.0014 -0.010 0.0015 0.0039 1,553,413 0.0012 -0.009 0.0013 0.0034 1,373,357 0.0011 -0.008 0.0012 0.0030 1,192,759 0.0009 -0.007 0.0010 0.0025 1,011,407 0.0008 -0.006 0.0009 0.0021 829,202 0.0006 -0.005 0.0007 0.0016 648,001 0.0005 -0.004 0.0006 0.0012 475,645 0.0004 -0.003 0.0004 0.0008 322,936 0.0003 -0.002 0.0003 0.0005 199,587 0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0003 110,465 0.0001 -0.001 0.0001 0.0001 53,856 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0001 22,755 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 8,199 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 2,481 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 621 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 127 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 21 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 3 0.0000 0.000 0.0000**Source Energy**

**Use - Elec (Quads)**  **Cumulative**

**Affected Shipments**  **Site Energy Use -**

**Gas (Quads) Site Energy Use -** 

**Elec (TWh) Source Energy** 

**Use - Gas (Quads)** 

0.0000 768,254 0.0006 -0.005 0.0006 0.0000 1,524,675 0.0012 -0.009 0.0013 0.0000 2,286,591 0.0018 -0.014 0.0019 -0.0001 3,054,143 0.0024 -0.018 0.0026 -0.0001 3,812,486 0.0030 -0.023 0.0032 -0.0001 4,566,530 0.0036 -0.027 0.0038 -0.0001 5,320,048 0.0041 -0.032 0.0045 -0.0001 6,063,836 0.0047 -0.036 0.0051 -0.0001 6,782,306 0.0053 -0.041 0.0057 -0.0001 7,482,089 0.0058 -0.045 0.0063 -0.0001 8,163,993 0.0064 -0.049 0.0069 -0.0001 8,802,493 0.0069 -0.053 0.0074 -0.0001 9,366,593 0.0073 -0.056 0.0079 -0.0001 9,806,471 0.0076 -0.059 0.0083 -0.0001 10,087,803 0.0079 -0.061 0.0085 -0.0001 10,211,452 0.0080 -0.061 0.0086 -0.0001 10,216,789 0.0080 -0.061 0.0086 **2013 Standard for Hearth Products (April 2010 Final Rule)**-0.0001 10,156,749 0.0079 -0.061 0.0086

-0.0001 10,055,248 0.0078 -0.060 0.0085 -0.0001 9,921,675 0.0077 -0.060 0.0084 -0.0001 9,783,089 0.0076 -0.059 0.0082 -0.0001 9,654,936 0.0075 -0.058 0.0081 -0.0001 9,539,940 0.0074 -0.057 0.0080 -0.0001 9,439,152 0.0074 -0.057 0.0080 -0.0001 9,350,930 0.0073 -0.056 0.0079 -0.0001 9,273,385 0.0072 -0.056 0.0078 -0.0001 9,205,788 0.0072 -0.055 0.0078 -0.0001 9,148,847 0.0071 -0.055 0.0077 -0.0001 9,103,875 0.0071 -0.055 0.0077 -0.0001 9,072,033 0.0071 -0.055 0.0076 -0.0001 8,418,017 0.0066 -0.051 0.0071 -0.0001 7,774,616 0.0061 -0.047 0.0065 -0.0001 7,140,994 0.0056 -0.043 0.0060 -0.0001 6,515,632 0.0051 -0.039 0.0055 -0.0001 5,896,437 0.0046 -0.035 0.0050 -0.0001 5,280,977 0.0041 -0.032 0.0044 -0.0001 4,666,880 0.0036 -0.028 0.0039 -0.0001 4,052,224 0.0032 -0.024 0.0034 0.0000 3,435,717 0.0027 -0.021 0.0029 0.0000 2,816,636 0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 0.0000 2,201,094 0.0017 -0.013 0.0019 0.0000 1,615,633 0.0013 -0.010 0.0014 0.0000 1,096,920 0.0009 -0.007 0.0009 0.0000 677,941 0.0005 -0.004 0.0006 0.0000 375,217 0.0003 -0.002 0.0003 0.0000 182,934 0.0001 -0.001 0.0002 0.0000 77,292 0.0001 0.000 0.0001 0.0000 27,851 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 8,426 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 2,108 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 430 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 70 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000**Source Energy**

**Use - Elec (Quads)**  **Housing**

**Starts Housing Starts vs.** 

**Hearth Shipments Factor**  **Natural Gas Electricity** 

966000 837600 963600 1039400 1160300 1065500 1128500 1116400 1159700 1270400 1241800 1255900 1.35 1325100 1.30 1386300 1.31 1531500 1.37 1635900 1.31 1.075 11500 1654500 1.05 1.075 11500 1218400 1.24 1.075 11500 818800 1.24 1.075 11500 520100 1.22 1.075 11500 496300 1.31 1.075 11500 1138975 1.27 1.075 11500 1370638 1.079 11500 -0.0001 1400864 1.084 11250 -0.0001 1379287 1.085 11000 -0.0001 1389307 1.084 10500 -0.0002 1399585 1.084 10000 -0.0002 1382791 1.084 8500 -0.0002 1374953 1.084 7500 -0.0002 1373993 1.084 7337 -0.0003 1356253 1.085 7337 -0.0003 1310085 1.084 7337 -0.0003 1276012 1.085 7337 -0.0004 1257621 1.089 7337 -0.0004 1251169 1.094 7405 -0.0004 1267920 1.095 7009 -0.0004 1265050 1.095 7009 -0.0004 1234620 1.095 6906 -0.0004 1191457 1.094 6872 -0.0004 1166136 1.094 6404 **Site to Source Factor Other Data for NIA**  **Housing Starts 2013 Standard for Hearth Products (April 2010 Final Rule)** -0.0004 1168793 1.093 6396

-0.0004 1155233 1.093 6396 -0.0004 1117855 1.093 6396 -0.0004 1106207 1.093 6396 -0.0004 1110463 1.093 6396 -0.0004 1114349 1.092 6396 -0.0004 1119921 1.092 6396 -0.0004 1125520 1.092 6396 -0.0004 1131148 1.092 6396 -0.0004 1136804 1.092 6396 -0.0004 1142488 1.092 6396 -0.0003 1148200 1.092 6396 -0.0003 1153941 1.092 6396 -0.0003 1159711 1.092 6396 -0.0003 1.092 6396 -0.0003 1.092 6396 -0.0003 1.092 6396 -0.0002 1.092 6396 -0.0002 1.092 6396 -0.0002 1.092 6396 -0.0002 1.092 6396 -0.0001 1.092 6396 -0.0001 1.092 6396 -0.0001 1.092 6396 -0.0001 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 0.0000 1.092 6396 1.092 6396 1.092 6396

## Shipments Data

**Year Fireplaces, Freestanding** 

**Stoves, Inserts, Fireboxes, and**

**Gas Logs*** **Vented Hearth** 1990 300,000 100,000 1991 435,000 135,000 1992 660,000 240,000 1993 895,875 265,247 1994 1,156,382 395,447 1995 NA 1996 NA 1997 NA 1998 1,611,750 1999 1,767,529 2000 1,977,484 2001 1,694,330 2002 1,716,139 721,322 2003 1,809,886 765,224 2004 2,103,685 2005 2,141,165 2006 1,739,602 2007 1,513,364 2008 1,017,078 2009 635,820 2010 650,911

**HPBA Disaggregated Shipments (2002,2003)** 2002 2003 B Vent Fireplaces 94,608 90,981 Stoves 8,357 8,773 Inserts 13,358 13,849 Log Sets 108,965 124,177 Outdoor 5,643 7,816 230,931 245,596

Direct Vent Fireplaces 499,443 541,335 Stoves 62,918 64,598 Inserts 42,638 45,688 604,999 651,621

Total (B Vent + Direct Vent) 835,930 897,217**Source Fraction of**  **Hearth Fireplaces, Inserts, and Stoves**  33% 31% 36% 30% 34%

42% 42% Estimate from GRI Report: Gas Hearth Products Market Fact Base, 1996

HPBA Website. Hearth Industry Unit Shipments 1998--2010 http://www.hpba.org/statistics/hp ba-us-hearth-statistics

## Charts for Shipments and Equipment Lifetime Data

**Year Total**  **Hearth Heaters and**  **Decorative Products**  **Decorative**

**Hearth Products**  **Hearth**

**Heaters Housing Starts**  1990 0.30 0.10 0.97 1991 0.44 0.14 0.84 1992 0.66 0.24 0.96 1993 0.90 0.27 1.04 1994 1.16 0.40 1.16 1995 1.07 1996 1.13 1997 1.12 1998 1.61 1.16 1999 1.77 1.27 2000 1.98 1.24 2001 1.69 1.26 2002 1.72 0.72 1.33 2003 1.81 0.77 1.39 2004 2.10 1.53 2005 2.14 1.64 2006 1.74 1.65 2007 1.51 1.22 2008 1.02 0.82 2009 0.64 0.52 2010 0.65 0.50 2011 1.45 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.14 2012 1.74 0.73 0.51 0.22 1.37 2013 1.78 0.75 0.53 0.23 1.40 2014 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.38 2015 1.76 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.39 2016 1.78 0.75 0.52 0.22 1.40 2017 1.76 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.38 2018 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.37 2019 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 1.37 2020 1.72 0.73 0.51 0.22 1.36 2021 1.66 0.70 0.49 0.21 1.31 2022 1.62 0.68 0.48 0.20 1.28 2023 1.60 0.67 0.47 0.20 1.26 2024 1.59 0.67 0.47 0.20 1.25 2025 1.61 0.68 0.48 0.20 1.27 2026 1.61 0.68 0.47 0.20 1.27 2027 1.57 0.66 0.46 0.20 1.23 2028 1.51 0.64 0.45 0.19 1.19 2029 1.48 0.62 0.44 0.19 1.172030 1.48 0.63 0.44 0.19 1.17

2031 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 1.16 2032 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.12 2033 1.41 0.59 0.41 0.18 1.11 2034 1.41 0.59 0.42 0.18 1.11 2035 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.11 2036 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.12 2037 1.43 0.60 0.42 0.18 1.13 2038 1.44 0.61 0.42 0.18 1.13 2039 1.44 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.14 2040 1.45 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.14 2041 1.46 0.61 0.43 0.18 1.15 2042 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 1.15 2043 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 1.16

**Lifetime Data Year**  **Probability**

30 0% 0% 0 0% 29 0% 0% 1 0% 28 0% 0% 2 0% 27 0% 0% 3 0% 26 0% 0% 4 0% 25 0% 0% 5 0% 24 0% 0% 6 0% 23 0% 0% 7 0% 22 0% 0% 8 0% 21 0% 0% 9 0% 20 0% 0% 10 1% 19 1% 1% 11 5% 18 3% 2% 12 11% 17 8% 5% 13 16% 16 17% 9% 14 19% 15 31% 14% 15 18% 14 48% 18% 16 14% 13 67% 19% 17 9% 12 83% 16% 18 5% 11 94% 11% 19 2% 10 99% 5% 20 1% 9 100% 1% 21 0% 8 100% 0% 22 0% 7 100% 0% 23 0% 6 100% 0% 24 0% 5 100% 0% 25 0% 4 100% 0% 26 0% 3 100% 0% 27 0% 2 100% 0% 28 0%1 100% 0% 29 0% 0 100% 0% 30 0% 1450%**Housing Starts**

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010**M i** **l l** **i o** **n S** **h i** **p m** **e n** **t s** **o r** **H o** **u s** **e h** **o l** **d s** 

**Year**



### 2001

**- 2010**  **Hearth Shipments vs. Housing Starts**

Hearth Shipments

Housing Starts

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50**M i** **l l** **i o** **n S** **h i** **p m** **e n** **t s** **o r** **H o** **u s** **e h** **o l** **d s** 



### Historical **Hearth Shipments Data (1990**

**- 2010)** 

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010**M i** **l l** **i o** **n**

**Year**



### Historical **Hearth Shipments Data (1990**

**- 2010)** 

Total Hearth

Vented Hearth

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00**M i** **l l** **i o** **n**8%

10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%**P r** **o b** **a b** **i l** **i t** **y** 

### Lifetime Distribution

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30**P r** **o b** **a b** **i l** **i t** **y**

**Years Year** 



### Projected **Hearth Shipments vs. Housing Starts**

**(2011**

**- 2043)** 

Projected Hearth

Shipments Projected Housing Starts (AEO 2010)



### Projected **Hearth Shipments Data (2011**

**- 2043)** 

**Year** Total Hearth

Total Vented Hearth

Vented Decorative Hearth