AlllDb 33MSDM

U.S. Departmenf

of Commerce

National Bureau

of Standards

Computer Science

and Technology

NBs NBS Special Publication 500-103

PUBUCATIONS

Future Information

Processing Technology - 1983
NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

The National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901. The Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the Nation's science and technology

and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts

research and provides: (I) a basis for the Nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is per- formed by the National Measurement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, and

the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology.

THE NATIONAL MEASUREMENT LABORATORY provides the national system of

physical and chemical and materials measurement; coordinates the system with measurement

systems of other nations and furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform

physical and chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, industry,

and commerce; conducts materials research leading to improved methods of measurement,

standards, and data on the properties of materials needed by industry, commerce, educational

institutions, and Government; provides advisory and research services to other Government

agencies; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides

calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Absolute Physical Quantities^ — Radiation Research — Chemical Physics —

Analytical Chemistry — Materials Science

THE NATIONAL ENGINEERING LABORATORY provides technology and technical ser- vices to the public and private sectors to address national needs and to solve national problems; conducts research in engineering and applied science in support of these efforts; builds and maintains competence in the necessary disciplines required to carry out this research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement capabilities;

provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops test methods and proposes

engineering standards and code changes; develops and proposes new engineering practices;

and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer results of its research to the ultimate user. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Applied Mathematics — Electronics and Electrical Engineering^ — Manufacturing

Engineering — Building Technology — Fire Resfearch — Chemical Engineering^

THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY conducts

research and provides scientific and technical services to aid Federal agencies in the selection, acquisition, application, and use of computer technology to improve effectiveness and

economy in Government operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.l^.C. 759), relevant Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards

guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities; provides scientific and technological advisory services and assistance to Federal agencies; and

provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government.

The Institute consists of the following centers:

Programming Science and Technology — Computer Systems Engineering.

'Headquarters and Laboratories at Gaithersburg, MD, unless otherwise noted; mailing address Washington, DC 20234. 'Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, CO 80303.
OF STAf/DAR

Computer Science

and Technology

AUG 2 0

NBS Special Publication 500-103

Future Information

Processing Technology - 1983

Peg Kay and Patricia Powell, Editors

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, DC 20234

This report was developed jointly by the Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology and the Defense Intelligence Agency

with contributions by the U.S. Department of Agriculture,

Department of Energy, and the Environmental Protection

Agency.

Various sections prepared for the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology and the Defense Intelligence Agency by:

A. D. Little, Inc. International Data Corporation

17 Acorn Park 1500 Planning Research Drive

Cambridge, MA 02140 Suite 240

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary

National Bureau of Standards

Ernest Ambler, Director

Issued August 1983

McLean, VA 22102

Aurora Associates

1140 Connecticut Avenue, N.W

Suite 1200

Washington, DC 20036

Kellogg Communications Corporation

5601 Broadway

Suite 400

Littleton, CO 80121
Reports on Computer Science and Technology

The National Bureau of Standards has a special responsibility within the Federal

Government for computer science and technology activities. The programs of the

NBS Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology are designed to provide ADP

standards, guidelines, and technical advisory services to improve the effectiveness

of computer utilization in the Federal sector, and to perform appropriate research

and development efforts as foundation for such activities and programs. This

publication series will report these NBS efforts to the Federal computercommunity as

well as to interested specialists in the academic and private sectors.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 83-600563

National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 500-103

Natl. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Spec. Publ. 500-103, 243 pages (Aug. 1983)

CODEN: XNBSAV

NOTE: Certain commercial products are identified in this report in order to

cite relevant examples. In no case does such identification imply recommendation or endorsement bythe Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology or the National Bureau of Standards.

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 1983

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402

Price $6.50

(Add 25 percent for other than U.S. mailing)
TAbLt OF CONTtNTS

List of Figures viii

List of Tables ix

Abstract and Acknowledgements x Foreword xi

PART I: Future Information Processing Technology i

OVERVIEW 3

PREFACE 3

INTRODUCTION 3

MANAGEMENT SUMMARY 3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 11

1. INTRODUCTION 13

2. FORECASTS OF UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGIES 14

2.1 PROCESSOR MODULES 14

2.1.1 Introduction 14

2.1.2 State-of-the-Art 14

2.1.3 1982-1987 17

2.1.4 1987-1992 20

2.1.5 1992-1997 22

2.2 LOGIC AND STORAGE COMPONENTS 27

2.2.1 Introduction 27

2.2.2 Semiconductor Technology 27

2.2.3 Other Logic and Memory Technologies 43

2.2.4 Mass Storage Technologies 46

2.2.5 Summary of Storage Component Performance

and Cost 51

2.3 INPUT/OUTPUT TECHNOLOGIES 53

2.3.1 Status and Trends 53

2.3.2 Display Technology • 54

2.3.3 Hard-copy Output Technology 55

2.3.4 Image Recognition 57

2.3.5 Voice Recognition 58

2.3.6 Voice Synthesis 60

2.4 SOFTWARE 61

2.4.1 Operating Systems 63

2.4.2 Support Software 67

2.4.3 Application Level Software 73

i i i
CHANGES IN THE INFORMATION INDUSTRY AND MARKET 80

3 . 1 INTRODUCTION 80

3. 2 FORCING FACTORS 81

3

.

2. 1 Improving Technologies 81

3. 2. 2 Improving Communications Services 83

3. 2. 3 Economic and Demographic Pressures 84

3. 2. 4 Cost and Profit Pressures 85

3. 2. 5 Evolving Interconnect Standards 87

3. 2. 6 Regulation and Litigation 88

3. 3 RECENT ACQUISITIONS AND JOINT VENTURES 90

3.4 THE EMERGING STRUCTURE OF THE INFORMATION INDUSTRY 92

4. FORECASTS OF FUTURE PRODUCTS AND SYSTEMS 97

4.1 GENERAL-PURPOSE COMPUTER SYSTEMS 97

4.2 DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING SYSTEMS 100

4.3 OFFICE SYSTEMS 104

4.4 SYSTEM COSTS 110

4.5 COMPATIBILITY AND TRANSPORTABILITY OF SOFTWARE 112

4.6 INFORMATION CONTROL AND SECURITY 114

4.7 PERSONNEL AND MAINTENANCE IMPLICATIONS 115

5. SUMMARY 119

5.1 INTRODUCTION 119

5.2 FORECASTS BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 119

5.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR USERS 124

PART 11: Federal Staff Comments 127

PREFACE 12 9

STAFF COMMENTS 129

PART 111: Teleconference Summary i4i

PREFACE 143

1. PARTICIPANTS 143

2. SUMMARIES OF THE DISCUSSION GROUPS 144

iv
PART IV: tsTiMATES OF Future System Costs 149

PREFACE 151

1. INTRODUCTION 151

2. METHOD OF DEVELOPING COST ESTIMATES 152

3. GENERAL-PURPOSE PROCESSORS 154

4. SPECIAL-PURPOSE PROCESSORS 156

5. MASS STORAGE SYSTEMS 156

6. SUPERVISORY AND INPUT/OUTPUT SYSTEM 158

7. NETWORK FRONT END 158

8. BATCH INPUT/OUTPUT CLUSTER 160

9. TERMINALS AND DESKTOP COMPUTERS 160

10. SEPARATELY-PRICED SOFTWARE 162

11. SYSTEM INTEGRATION COST 162

12. HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE MAINTENANCE PAYMENTS TO VENDORS 163

PART V: The Impact of Law and Regulation Un Federal

Automatic Data Processing i65

PREFACE 167

1. LEGAL AND REGULATORY BACKGROUND 167

2. LEGISLATIVE PROGRAMS 169

3. ROLE OF THE CENTRAL MANAGEMENT AGENCIES 171

3.1 OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (OMB) 171

3.2 OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY (OFPP) 171

3.3 THE GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (GSA) 172

3.4 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER

SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY/NATIONAL BUREAU OF

STANDARDS (ICST/NBS) 173

3.5 OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (OPM) 175

4. MAJOR INFORMATION RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ISSUES 17 7

4.1 COMPETITION/COMPATIBILITY/CONVERSION 177

V
4.2 OBSOLESCENCE 177

4.3 SECURITY/PRIVACY 179

. 4.4 0MB CIRCULAR A-121, "COST ACCOUNTING, COST

RECOVERY AND INTERAGENCY SHARING OF DATA

PROCESSING FACILITIES" 179

4.5 LOW-COST COMPUTING (MICROCOMPUTERS) 180

4.6 STANDARDS 181

^ . 4.7 AGENCY IRM ORGANIZATIONS 182

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 184

APPENDIX A: Investigations from Activities of the

House Committee on Government Operations 185

APPENDIX B: International Data Corporation's

Computer Class Size Definitions and

CPU Totals by Class Size 187

PART VI: hANAGING tND-USER COMPUTING 195

PREFACE 197

IV INTRODUCTION 197

2. THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM 199

2. 1 END-USER COMPUTING WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF INFORMATION RESOURCE MANAGEMENT 199

2. 2 MANAGING CHANGE: THE BASIC PROBLEM CONCERNING

END-USER COMPUTING 200

MANAGEMENT ISSUES 201

3. 1 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF END-USER COMPUTING 201

3. 2 THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CONTEXT 203

3. 2. 1 The Paperwork Reduction Act 203

3. 2. 2 Federal Management Roles 204

3. 3 MICROPROCESSING ISSUES 204

3. 3. 1 Control of Acquisition and Use 204

3. 3. 2 The Role of Microcomputers in Relation to

Mainframes and Minicomputers 207

3. 3. 3 Application Areas and Sequence for

Introduction 207

3. 3. 4 Pace for Introduction and Integration 207

3. 3. 5 Roles and Responsibilities of Users, ADP,

and Word Processing Professionals 207

3. 3. 6 Support Structure 207

vi
4. END-USER COMPUTING IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR 209

4.1 CORPORATE SURVEY 209

4.2 CENTRAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS SUPPORT 209

4.3 SUMMARY 214

5. END-USER COMPUTING IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 215

6.

7.

5. 1 THE CENTRAL MANAGEMENT AGENCIES 215

5. 1. 1 The Office of Management and Budget (0MB) 215

5. 1. 2 The General Services Administration (GSA) 216

5. 1. 3 The Institute for Computer Sciences and

Technology (ICST) 217

5. 1. 4 The Office of Personnel Management (0PM) 217

5. 1. 5 General Accounting Office (GAO) 218

5. 1. 6 Summary 218

5. 2 EXECUTIVE BRANCH AGENCIES 219

5. 2. 1 Overv iew 219

5. 2. 2 How User Agencies Are Addressing Small

Computer Issues 219

5. 2. 3 Examples of Agency Approaches 220

MANAGING CHANGE 224

6. 1 OVERVIEW 224

6. 2 EXAMINING THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT 224

6. 2. 1 Planning Styles 224

6. 2. 2 Power and Leadership 224

6. 2. 3 Interpersonal Relationships 225

6. 2. 4 Pace of Work 225

6. 2. 5 Resources and Cost 225

6. 2. 6 Relationships with Contractors and Consultants 226

6. 2. 7 Nature of Performance Criteria 226

6. 3 FACILITATING CHANGE 227

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 229

7. 1 OVERVIEW 229

7. 2 CENTRAL MANAGEMENT AGENCIES 229

7. 3 EXECUTIVE BRANCH AGENCIES 233

7. 4 CONCLUSION 235

REFERENCES 236

VI 1
LIST OF FIGURES

Possible Fifth Generation Architecture

Projected Development Periods of Promising

Archi tec tures

Trends in Device Speed - Stage Delay Per Gate

Circuit for Different Technologies

Historical Development of the Complexity of

Integrated Circuits

Minimum Linewidth for Semiconductor

Microl i thography

Microprocessor Bit Capability vs. Year of

Introduction

Median Microprocessor Price vs. Time

Complexity (Bit Size) of Semiconductor Memory:

RAM (Random Access) Family, Static and Dynamic,

by Speed Class

Complexity (Bit Size) of Semiconductor Memory:

ROM (Read-only) vs. Year of Introduction

Semiconductor Memory Component Prices (Per Bit)

RAM (Random Access) by Speed Class

Read-Only Semiconductor Memory Component Prices

(Per Bit) by Type

Software Evolution

Summary of Software Forecasts

Future General-Purpose Computer System

Late 1980 ' s Local Communications Network

Summary of Information System Product Forecasts

Federal Management Roles and End-User Computing

Response to Organizational Change

vi i i
LIST OF TABLES

Table No.

Part I 2.1

2.2

3.1

3.2

Part IV

3.1

5.1

6.1

7.1

8.1

9.1

10.

1

11.

1

12.

Part V

Appendix

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Part VI

4.1

Cost Comparisons of Storage Technologies 51

Average Access Times of Storage Technologies 52

The Present Information Processing Market 80

Examples of Affiliations 91

Cost Forecasts for General-Purpose Application 155

Processors

Cost Forecasts for Mass Storage Systems 157

Cost Estimates for Supervisory and Input/Output 159

Systems

Cost Estimates for Network Front Ends 159

Cost Estimates for Batch Input/Output Cluster 160

Cost Estimates for Terminal and Desktop 161

Computers ($ thousand)

Cost Estimates for Separately-Priced Soft- 162

ware (Paid-up License Basis)

System Integration Cost (% of system cost) 163

Estimated Annual Hardware and Software Main- 163

tenance Cost (% of syscem cost)

Computer Size Class Definitions Representative 187

Model Assignments

Burroughs CPU's by Year Installed Percent of 189

Total

CDC CPU's by Year Installed Percent of Total 189

Data General CPU's by Year Installed Percent 190

of Total

DEC CPU's by Year Installed Percent of Total 190

Honeywell CPU's by Year Installed Percent of 191

Total

H-P CPU's by Year Installed Percent of Total 192

IBM CPU's by Year Installed Percent of Total 192

IBM PCMS CPU's by Year Installed Percent of 193

Total

NCR CPU's by Year Installed Percent of Total 193

UNIVAC CPU's by Year Installed Percent of 194

Total

WANG CPU's by Year Installed Percent of Total 194

Overview of Private Industry Low-Cost Computing 212

Strateg ies

ix
ABSTRACT

The document contains the 1983 technical Forecast for the information processing industry through 1997. It consists of six

parts. Part I forecasts the underlying technologies of hardware

and software, contains a discussion of changes in the information

industy and market, and forecasts products and systems of the

future, e.g., general-purpose systems, distributed processing

systems, office systems. Part II contains Federal agency staff

comments on Part I. Part III summarizes a teleconference in

which a number of industry ADP users and vendors reviewed Part I.

Part IV provides cost estimates for computer systems, subsystems,

and terminals through 1997. Part V discusses the current and

potential rules and regulations of the Federal environment and

how they may affect the Federal inventory of ADP equipment. Part

VI discusses management strategies for the new information technologies with emphasis on microprocessors.

KEY WORDS: computers; cost estimation; distributed processing

systems; end-user computing; Feoeral ADP regulations; generalpurpose computer systems; information processing industry; management strategies; microcomputers; office systems; technology

forecasting

.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report was funded by the institute for Computer Sciences

and Technology, National Bureau of Standards, under contract

number NB80SBCA-04 50 with Aurora Associates, Inc., under consulting agreement number 82-2015 from Aurora Associates, Inc. to

Arthur D. Little, Inc., under contract number NB82NAAM0773 with

the Kellogg Corporation, under purchase order number. AP5020 to

the International Data Corporation (IDC) and was funded by the

Defense Intelligence Agency under contract number MDA 908-82-C0019 with Arthur D. Little, Inc. Additional contributions were

made by the Department of Energy, U. S. Department of Agriculture

and the Environmental Protection Agency,

We would like to thank Frederic T, Withington of Arthur D,

Little, Inc, for his extensive contributions, and the following

Federal agencies for their assistance: Defense Mapping Agency,

Department of Defense, Department of Education, Department of

Health and Human Services, Department of Housing and Urban

Development, Department of the Interior, Department of Justice,

Department of the Treasury, General Services Administration,

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology, National

Aeronautics and Space Administration, Office of Management and

Budget, Securities and Exchange Commission, Smithsonian

Institution, and Veterans Administration,, Our thanks also go

to Whit Dodson, of IDC, who »vas principally responsible for

developing Part V and to Lisa Stevenson who was an invaluable

consultant in the preparation of Part VI,

X
FUKhWUKU

The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology (ICST) is

responsible for the development of standards and guidelines which

lead to "the economic and efficient purchase, lease, maintenance,

operation and utilization of automatic data processing equipment

by Federal departments and agencies" (Public Law 89-306). In

order to fulfill its responsibilities, ICST gathers and

integrates information needed for the timely selection of

technical areas to be investigated and for monitoring and

revising existing standards and guidelines. To those ends, ICST

develops technology forecasts, projects trends in the Federal ADP

inventory, gathers data relating to ICST product usage, and

conducts studies on the costs, benefits, and impacts of its

products

.

While the information gathered and compiled is primarily used to

help ICST guide its own program, certain studies are, we believe,

of more general interest. When widespread interest is expected,

ICST, through publication, disseminates the relevant documents.

One case in point was our September 1981 technology forecast.

The Effects of Future Information Processing Technology on the

Federal Government ADP Situat ion . That forecast, which was

prepared for ICST by Arthur D. Little, Inc. and General Systems

Group, Inc., was based in part on a similar forecast prepared by

A. D. Little for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)

.

The 1981 forecast (as well as this report) belongs to the "expert

opinion" category of technology forecasts and was thoroughly

reviewed by ICST staff members — experts in their own rights.

Not surprisingly, the expert opinions differed on several points

and those differences were, in themselves, of interest since they

provided a basis for discussion and analysis that proved valuable

to ICST ' s planning process. Thus, when we published the report

we included the staff comments — identified as such — in the

body of the forecast. Other Federal agencies indicated that they

found the comments as valuable as we did.

Therefore, when we prepared this updated and expanded forecast,

we circulated the draft report to all of the Federal agencies and

invited their staffs to submit comments. Comments from 15

agencies were received and each comment was discussed with the

contractor, Frederick Withington of A. D. Little. In most cases,

the comments were incorporated into subsequent drafts of the

report. In those cases where the staff comments were at odds

with the opinion of the discussion team or were deemed to be

beyond the scope of the forecast, they have been included

separately in Part II of this report.

This 1983 forecast has been a consortium effort by a number of

Federal agencies. ICST and DIA worked closely together from its

inception. DIA provided the funding for the initial draft, which

emphasized technologies of particular interest to the

intelligence community. ICST provided the funding for subsequent

drafts in which the emphasis shifted to civilian concerns

xi
including descriptions of ADP market factors. The joint effort

by DIA and ICST, working with A. D. Little, produced a solid

working draft of Part I of this report.

Staff members of the Department of Energy (DOE) joined ICST in

reviewing the draft of Part I and working with A. D. Little to

develop the final product. Both DOE and ICST staff members made

considerable substantive contributions to the body of document.

Staff members of the Department of Agriculture reviewed that

draft and prepared a management overview which is included here

as an introduction to Part I.

Part I is therefore the result of a joint effort. Certain

sections in Part I are flagged, by the words "staff comment".

The flagged sections are keyed to staff comments in Part II.

Part II contains the staff comments which either express views

divergent from material in Part I or provide additional informa-

, tion on a particular subject.

Part III summarizes the results of a teleconference in which a number of private sector ADP users and vendors reviewed a draft

of Part I. Staff from A. D. Little, ICST, and DOE served as

resource people for the subgroups of the teleconference.

Part IV presents estimates of future system costs. This Part was

prepared by A. D. Little for DIA and is included here because of

its general interest to all Federal agencies.

Part V discusses the current and potential rules and regulations

in the Federal environment and how they may affect the Federal

inventory of ADP equipment. Prepared by the International Data

Corporation (IDC) , this part was funded by ICST and co-managed by

ICST, General Services Administration (GSA) , and the Office of

Management and Budget (0MB)

.

Part VI is comprised of a discussion of the management strategies

for end-user computing — in particular, the microprocessors.

This part was prepared by Aurora Associates, Inc. and is based in

large measure on interviews conducted with staff members of

several agencies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

provided significant help in developing this Part. Part VI was

funded by ICST.

We have been particularly pleased by the enthusiastic cooperation

of the various Federal agencies as well as by private sector ADP

vendors and users. It is our intent to periodically update the

forecast and we are looking forward to expanding the working

consortium in subsequent editions.

We would very much appreciate comments and suggestions from our

readers, addressed to P. Powell, Information Processes Group,

xi i
Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology, National Bureau

of Standards, Bldg . 225, Washington, D.C. 20234.

James H. Burrows,

Director

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

Peg Kay, Leader

Information Processes Group

X i i i

PAKT I: FUTUKt INFOKMATIUN

TECHNOLObY

PKUCtSSINb

OVtKVILW

Prepared by

U. S. Department of Agriculture

CHAPTLKS 1-5

Prepared by

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

Contract number

NB 80SBCA-040

Institute for Computer Sciences

and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Contract number

MDA 908-82-C-0019

Defense Intelligence Agency

OVtHVItW: PKbFACt

This section of the forecast was prepared by the Planning

Division of the Office of Information Resources Management of the

United States Department of Agricul ture . It originally formed

part of the USDA planning document , "Technological Environment

Survey"--a document which, in turn, drew on an earlier draft of

this report for much of its source material.

Because the material includes a concise summary of the lengthy

Part 1 of tnis forecast, with USDA's permission we reprint it

here .

1. INTKOUUCTIUN

The technological environment is presented in this document as

technologies and strategies. The technological areas presented

are

:

o Automatic Data Processing

^ o Telecommunications.

The strategies presented are:

o Distributed Processing Systems

o Office Systems

o End-user Computing.

Finally the following sections are presented:

o System Costs

o Compatibility and Transportability of Software

o Information Control and Security

o Personnel and Maintenance Implications

2. MANAGtMENT SUMMARY

Plans for future improvement of Information Resources Management

(IRM) are laid against a backdrop of increasing conversion of

manual operations and procedures to the use of automated

techniques. Real productivity increases in the industrial

environment came only after management adapted mechanized systems

to processes which had previously been manual. People using

machines nave made possible the twentieth century advances in

production of goods, farming, mining, travel, and communication.

The growth of automated technologies such as computerized

information manipulation, enhanced office text preparation

devices, electronic information transfer, and micrographics has

developed because these devices and systems increase productivity

3
in each environment. In an era of expanding production

requirements, coupled with the rising cost of human resources,

automated techniques are being increasingly employed.

Most of the future developments will be based on the use of

additional breakthroughs in the exploitation of very large and

large scale (VLSI and LSI) integrated electronics circuitry.

These circuits were primarily an outgrowth of the research

programs of the 1960 's and 1970 's. Microprocessors, or computers

on a chip, are finding their way into a wide range of devices

from the automobile to electronic games to intelligent computer

terminals, personal computers, and mainframes. Their use will be

limited only by human imagination and the capability of

manufacturers to keep up with the demand and to show an increased

profit through their implementation in products.

The growth in the use of this technology has accompanied a corresponding increase in the types and amount of information

that are oeing recorded and used. This growth is causing a dramatic change in the requirement to properly manage information

to assure maximum accuracy, effective utilization, and minimum

redundancy

.

2.1 AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING

The technological capabilities that will be available to the

Federal government over the next five years offer tremendous

opportunities to improve the performance of all mission programs

and to reduce operating costs through increases in productivity

and efficiency of personnel. The only 1 imi tat ions or failures in

tapping these vast technolog ical opportunities will be from

either a f ai lure to make adequate investment to acquire and to

learn to use the needed technology or a ~Ea i lure ^_to plan

adequately and to manage the implementation of the new

technology. Even with adequate capital investment, good

planning, management and training, the Federal government will

find it extremely difficult to keep up with the pace of

technological growth and capability. A brief discussion of some

of the current and expected technological changes over the next

several years is included in the paragraphs below.

2,1,1 Technological Changes In Computer Hardware, The

foundation for the modern-day digital computer technology is that

of the vacuum tube and later of the basic transistor developed in

the early 50 's. The development of integrated circuit technology

(a dense collection of minature transistors also called "chip"

technology) in the 60 ' s and 70 ' s was the major breakthrough

leading to the high processing speeds and expanded storage

capabilities, lower unit storage costs, and divergent application

opportunities that exist today and which will continue to expand

in the future.

Two indicators often used to measure the advancement in

integrated circuit and computer technology are the density of

components on each circuit or chip, and the number of operations

4
per second that can be performed (speed is usually defined in

terms of MI PS-mi 1 1 ions of instructions per second or MFLOPS

millions of floating operations per second). Circuit densities

of 64,000 components or more per chip are available in the

marketplace today. It is projected that by 1986, densities of

up to 1,000,000 components per chip will be commonly available.

With respect to processing speed, some of today's largest

computer systems are approaching 100 MIPS. By cascading or

coupling a number of individual processors, the effective

processing speed that can be achieved is almost limitless. The

practical limits facing integrated circuit technology development

are the problems associated with heat dissipation as circuit

densities increase and the inherent propagation delays between

components within the chip (limited to the speed of light)

.

As circuit densities increase and high volume demands allow for

expansion of production capacity in the marketplace, unit cost of

chips continues to plummet. These decreases in unit cost and

increasing capabilities will continue to expand the opportunities

for many new and different uses of the technology in military,

commercial, and consumer applications.

2,1,2 Technological Changes In Software, Throughout the history

of computer technology, software has lagged behind hardware in

terms of sophistication, performance capability, and reliability.

The almost infinite variety of ways in which software (computer

programs) can be designed, organized, and implemented has

inhibited the development of standardized techniques and

languages and slowed the transition process from old to newer

technology. In recent years, software maturity has become the

dominant factor in terms of cost and developmental pace of new

computer systems. Software development and maintenance continues

to be highly labor intensive and continues to increase in size

and complexity with each new generation of computer equipment.

Current trends in software technology center around efforts to

improve higher order programming languages and tools to make

computers easier to use and to increase programmer productivity.

Another major goal is to provide the capability for non-ADP

professionals to develop their own systems and solve problems

more easily without requiring the services and skills of ADP

professionals who continue to be in short supply. Many new

products in the form of automatic programming aids, ultra user

friendly languages, data management tools, and other programmer

and user aids will continue to be introduced over the next

several years. Development of new software standards in such

areas as operating systems, development of cross compilers (a

programming tool) , and emulators will be emphasized to make

software and applications more portable and less costly to

convert and maintain.

In the coming decade, software changes will be more significant

to computer users than will hardware changes. Hardware trends

will result in reduced cost, but software trends will bring

5
changes in the way the typical data processing installation

functions and the relationships between the data processing

department and users.

The trend toward ease of use is the result of terminal

proliferation, greater user familiarity with electronic devices,

and the growing discontent of users who are often told that the

programming staff will take two to three years to design and

implement a new application. The objective of the newer software

is to support computer systems that can be programmed and

operated by non-computer trained personnel.

The software tools that will enable user personnel to develop

applications will also make the professional programmer more

productive. Software products that perform input, processing,

and output are beginning to appear in the marketplace. These new

products will gradually replace today's programming languages for

most applications and will require more hardware resources as a tradeoff for their user friendliness.

2.1.3 Application Of Technology , Computer based technology will

continue to be applied as the core of new and innovative products

which can be applied in the home, office, laboratory or field to

assist professionals and nonprofessionals in the performance of

their functions. Such products as executive and professional

workstations, integrated office systems, and intelligent

communications networks will continue to be introduced and

expanded in capability at relatively decreasing cost.

2.1.4 Integration Of Technology. Technology will continue to be

integrated into the working environment of nearly all functional

areas and organizations within the government. The distinction

between computer , communications , information management and

other previously separated environments i s becoming more

d i f f icul t to maintain because of the effects of technology

integration

.

Overall, technology integration is expected to yield

significant benefits to the Federal Government. However , the

pr ice to be paid w ill be ever increasing complex i ty resul ting

tM^^ incr eased need for coordina tio n in the design

implementation , management of the tec hnology , and the new

appl icat ions supported by the technology.

2.2 TELECOMMUNICATIONS

The telecommunication industry is currently undergoing a dramatic

change from a predominantly monopolistic to a competitive

environment. In addition, there is a change underway from an

analog electromechanical environment to a sophisticated

electronic digital based technological environment. This

includes digital information transfer switches, utilizing the

latest, very large scale integrated electronic circuitry, fiber

optic and satellite transmission media, and the inclusion of

integrated digital computers in the provision of total

telecommunications facilities.

6
I

Telecommunications management in the past has primarily addressed

the transmission of the human voice from one point to another

using wires or radio waves as the communication medium. Modern

telecommunications facilities include the use of satellite relay

stations, glass fibers carrying light waves, laser beams, and

totally solar-powered ultra-high frequency transmitters in

addition to the former media.

In addition to the transmission of the human voice, the new

facilities are required to accommodate the transmission of

digitized information from large and small computers, facsimile

machines, communicating office text processors, various high and

low speed data collection and monitoring devices, and video

(visual) images. The ideal total system will include support for

all voice and non-voice transmission and associated services

required by a corporate or government entity. Industry is now

perfecting the ability to translate the human voice into binary

form (bits of information represented by a series of I's and

0's). This translated form may then be carried over facilities

designed primarily for the transmission of traditionally

digitized information such as computer files, automated office

text, digitized facsimile images, remotely sensed information,

and other information converted to digitized form. This merging

of many kinds of information into digitized forms is making it

more practical to provide a total telecommunications support

facility.

Standards for linking distinct communications networks are being

addressed by organizations such as the International Standards

Organization and The Institute for Computer Sciences and

Technology at the National Bureau of Standards. In the near

future, we should see the results of the work being done in the

area of linking distinct communications networks (also called

internetworking)

.

2.3 DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING SYSTEMS

The evolution of distributed processing systems is more

constrained by market and industry readiness than by technical

factors. Most distributed data processing systems are justified

on the basis of a single application which is generally

transaction processing-oriented and dependent upon several

geographically distributed but functionally integrated databases. It is usually the case that once a distributed processing

system is installed other local applications are added to the

system to increase the effectiveness of local management or

operations. However, the successful distributed processing

systems as a rule retain centralized control of the databases and

programs which are essential to the operation of the main

application for which the system was justified. Prudent users

perform a careful analysis of each application on a case-by-case

basis to determine whether an application is more effectively

implemented using a distributed data processing solution.

7
2.4 OFFICE SYSTEMS

Office systems are (from the technical viewpoint) supersets of

distributed processing systems. Both incorporate microprocessorbased systems (MBS's) . Both serve end-users in their local

offices. However, while distributed processing systems

traditionally deal primarily with data processing, office systems

deal more with text, voice, and image material. Many users of

distributed data processing systems are already adding limited

text and image processing capabilities to them.

Industry structural constraints are slowing the development of

office systems. Multi-media office systems require the skills

formerly resident in four separate industry sectors (i.e., office

products, computer hardware, computer software, telecommunications) ; a vendor competent in any one of the four must acquire

the skills of the other three before it can offer mature multimedia systems. It also appears that the modular information

appliances for end-users in business and professional applications are converging with those in consumer electronics (a fifth

sector) , requiring a new form of retail distribution system.

Inter-active video disc systems for corporate applications have

their roots in consumer video disc technology*, for example, but

it seems unlikely that present consumer-oriented retailers can

develop or sell such systems.

Office systems will evolve gradually, then, with single-medium

systems (e.g., word processors) slowly combining functions with

other single-medium systems (e.g., for distributed data

processing and telephone service) . Our observations of user

behavior support this view; most organizations can assimilate

only small office system changes without disrupting their

activities and require about one year between changes.

2.5 END-USER COMPUTING

Within the last decade, it is probable that the greatest change

in the government ADP environment has been the tremendous growth

in end-user computing via personal computers and terminals.

By the end of this decade, end-user computing will account for

well over half of all computing performed in most government

agencies--a level that has already been reached in a few

organizations and is about to be reached in others. This trend

represents a dramatic change from earlier centralized data

*Ed. note: The vocabulary and spelling used in this field is

still in flux. In this report, the term "video disc" is used in

the broadest sense, denoting general information storage

technology and is not litiited to home entertainment technology.

8
processing where users could have only limited access to data via

terminals. Many of today's users have direct contact with the

computer without the requirement of an interface by a computer

operator

.

Government managers express little actual concern about the

astonishing growth of minis and micros within their

organizations. Almost universally, they seem to be adjusting

comfortably to the arrival of the machines. Most have come to

the realization that the successful managers of the future will

have to make far greater use of computers than in the past; they

know they must become knowledgeable about ADP and make

intelligent use of the technology in order to survive as

managers

.

Typically, government executives view the cost of personal

computers relative to the potential benefits that they expect

their agency to derive as being a sound investment. Personal

computers are viewed as offering the cheap computing that has

been promised for years; government managers seem eager to

explore ways to make use of the new technology now that it has

ar r i ved

.

2.6 SYSTEM COSTS

The cost of technology will continue to decline, relatively

speaking, over the next several years. Conversely, it can be

viewed that costs will remain stable (disregarding inflation)

with a significant increase in technological capability per

dollar invested. Competition in the market place coupled with

demand for new technological products is expected to continue the

historical cost/technology growth trends for the next several

years.

2.7 COMPATIBILITY AND TRANSPORTABILITY OF SOFTWARE

Users would like to be able to transport their programs across

product lines; to be able to select among competitive vendors'

offerings for every system module without having to reprogram

existing software. Vendor independence cannot be guaranteed

unless a comprehensive set of universally supported standards

exists. Some standards exist now and others are slowly emerging,

but the process is slow because of its inherent complexity and

manufacturer self-interest.

A user wanting to remain as vendor- independent as possible should

observe the following four guidelines in preparing new systems:

o Programming should be in standard high-level

languages

.

o Programs should be modular. In particular, input/

output and file processing functions should be

separated from computational ones.

9
o Inter-system communications should be conducted

according to ISO standards, which will probably be

supported by all vendors at this level.

o Hardware modules that are to be retained as the information systems evolve (terminals, communications

controllers, processors) should as far as possible

have their specific functions and interfaces established by microcode and software, rather than by

fixed wiring.

It is easier to establish standards for new applications than to

retrofit them to existing ones. In many organizations, old, nonstandard applications will be running for many years alongside

new ones, until it becomes cost-effective to replace the old

application with a new one or a commercial package.

2.8 INFORMATION CONTROL AND SECURITY

Commercial requirements for access control and data security are

generally less stringent than those of military security. This

summary is confined to commercially available products and

techniques.

Physical access to terminals and machine spaces is currently

controlled by passwords, identity cards, terminal identifiers and

the like.

Logical access to computer software and databases will be subject

to improved control.

For the relatively few commercial users desiring data encryption,

the ICST standard will be satisfactory. We envision no major

effort to improve the level of security provided.

2.9 PERSONNEL AND MAINTENANCE IMPLICATIONS

After 1985, the end-users of the new systems will do much of

their own programming via interactive dialogues with easy-to-use

software, so they will no longer need to work through application

programmers. However, user organizations will need central

groups of highly-trained technicians to establish the environment

in which the end-users work: to select the hardware and systems

programs, to establish the standards, to define the software

tools available to the users, and to perform information resource

management functions. The emphasis will be on personnel quality

rather than quantity. A cadre of experts will be required whose

technical knowledge may be greater than presently needed.

Application programmers will still be needed for the

organization's production applications, perhaps as many as are

now employed in many organizations. However, their numbers will

not rise proportionately to the total amount of programming done

in the organization.

10
The application programmers remaining in user organizations will

be equipped with improved tools to help them, often resident in

their versions of the multifunction workstation (the

"programmer's workbench"). Paradoxically, however, the

productivity of the developmental programming function itself is

not likely to be enhanced much. Developmental programming is the

most intricate, the most skilled and the most highly variable in

the components of data processing system development; hence, it

is the least likely to be automated.

The new software development aids should primarily be considered

as tools for developing bigger systems better. The paybacks will

be found in areas other than programmer productivity, such as

documentation, maintenance, end-user training, and faster

response to small problems.

Operations personnel requirements should slowly decline: system

modules of all types should become increasingly automatic in

operation, requiring less loading of programs, scheduling,

changing of media, etc.

Maintenance of electronic modules will become much easier and

less costly. Unfortunately, the reliability and maintainability

of electromechanical peripheral devices (disk drives, printers,

etc.) will not increase so much. Combining this fact with

a probable proliferation of information system modules in

relatively inaccessible field locations, the result may be that

overall cost and quality problems of system maintenance will

remain at approximately their present level.

3. ACKNUWLtUbtMtNT

The principal information sources for the^USDA report were the

following three documents:

o A report developed for the Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology at the National Bureau of

Standards (NBS) entitled. The Effects of Future

Information Processing Technology on the Federal

Government ADP Situation, September 1981, prepared

by Arthur D. Little, Inc. and an updated draft

version received in August 1982 by USDA.

o An addendum to DOD Intelligence Information System

master plan entitled. Future Information Processing

Technology December 1981, DOD/DIA prepared by

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

o A report developed for Lister Hill National Center

for Biomedical Communication, Bethesda, Maryland,

entitled, Communications Technology Forecast

January 1979, prepared by Bolt, Beranek and Newman,

Inc

.

11
Each of the three documents listed above contains more detailed

information concerning particular technical areas than that given

here. The following documents which used the first Arthur D.

Little publication listed above as their principal source, were

also used as secondary sources of information. They are:

o IRM Long-Range Planning Document , Volume 1, prepared by the U.S. Department of the Interior,

December 1981.

o ADP Long-Range Plan prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy, December 1981, Appendix C - ADP

Technology Forecast Summary.

o Trends in ADP Technology prepared by the U. S.

Department of Transportation, September 1981.

The Technological Environment Survey was compiled and edited

directly from the above documents by the Planning Division of the

Office of Information Resources Management of the United States

Department of Agriculture,

12
1. INTKODUCTIUN

This report contains a forecast of future information processing

technology and products during the next fifteen years. Because

the products offered by the industry are determined by the

vendors' entrepreneurial decisions as well as by the potentials

of technology, the report also contains a forecast of changes in

the information industry and market.

This report consists of five chapters.

Chapter 2 contains forecasts of the underlying technologies to

1997: processor modules and supercomputers, logic and storage

modules, input/output technologies, and software.

Chapter 3 contains an overview of changes occurring in the nature

and structure of the U.S. information industry and its markets,

and a forecast of its future structure. Emphasis is placed on

qualitative factors that would tend to advance or retard the

availability of products based on future technology.

Chapter 4 forecasts the results: the nature and approximate

timing of future general-purpose computers, distributed

processing systems and office systems, and implications for user

organizations

.

Chapter 5 summarizes the report. It briefly describes the

technological and product developments forecast in earlier

chapters, and implications for users. Figure 5.1 presents an

overview of all the forecasts in tabular form.

IJl 13
2. FUkLCASTS OF UNDLKLYIN6

TECHNOLUbltS

This chapter presents our forecasts of the technologies that will

be used in information processing systems. It is divided into

the following four parts:

2.1 Processor Modules

2.2 Logic and Storage Components

2.3 Input/Output Technologies

2.4 Software

2.1 PROCESSOR MODULES

2.1.1 Introduc t ion

This section contains a discussion of general-purpose and

special-purpose processor modules which are likely to be

incorporated into computer systems of the 1980 's and 1990' s. This section is divided into four time periods;

- The 1982 state-of-the-art;

- 1982-1987;

- 1987-1992; and

- 1992-1997.

^ Within each of the four time periods, four types of processors

are discussed:

General-purpose processors;

Parallel processors;

Supercomputers;

Mass storage systems.

Novel principles of processor architecture will be incorporated

in all four of the processor types during the forecast period.

These are discussed in the text. The timing of their appearance

in commercial products is also summarized in figure 2.2 and in

the discussion of general-purpose processors of 1992-1997.

2.1.2 State-of-the-Art

2.1.2.1 General-Purpose Processors

The majority of today's smaller processors are bus-oriented with

one or more processors dedicated to each major system function

and interconnections made via a wideband communications bus. A

few general-purpose systems follow the same approach. As

software and high-speed buses are developed, larger computers

(presently centered around storage controllers) are also likely

14
to become bus-oriented. When they do, they will probably be

offered to users in a modular fashion, an approach which will

also be followed by the smaller systems.

The use of microcode is increasing rapidly. Substituting for

wired logic, microcode permits greater flexibility (because it

can be changed) and a higher level of autonomy in each processing

module (because systems program functions can be distributed to

the modules as microcode) . Microcode (and most other software)

will be independently priced by the manufacturers.

Most of the microcode is implemented in the form of special

purpose instructions which are utilized by the software portions

of operating systems and support software (see section 2.4).

Within the past few years, these instructions have become so complex that they have in effect become subroutines which work

integrally with the system software.

Most of the microcode has been treated as proprietary to the

manufacturer which generated it. While the tools used to

generate microcode are not made available to the user or the

general public, microcode modules are beginning to be sold

separately. Pressures for standardization and interoperability

may cause manufacturers to release specifications for standard

microcoded functions, but it is not now clear that this will

happen

.

2.1.2.2 Parallel Processors

Current commercially available parallel processors are primarily

intended for structured mathematical processing and for signal

processing applications, such as seismic data processing, radar,

and sonar data processing. These specialized processors are

generally used in conjunction with (or have incorporated in their

structures) , general-purpose von Neumann type processors to

handle the system control and those parts of the data processing

problems which are not amenable to parallel processing solutions.

Up to the mid-1970 's these systems were quite expensive, with

purchase prices beginning at over $500,000 and ranging to over

$100,000,000 for the experimental ILLIAC IV. Recently, however,

as large scale integration offered dramatic improvements in price

performance, signal processing, and matrix manipulation, add-on

array processors for minicomputers have begun to be actively

marketed for as little as $10,000. Recent advances in

semiconductor technology and memory (both random access and

serial memories) and logic areas have encouraged R&D efforts in

parallel processors, due to their promise of decreased cost and

increased reliability.

2.1.2.3 Supercomputers

Supercomputers are the high-powered processors with numerical

processing throughput significantly greater than that of the

largest general-purpose computers. The definition of a

15
supercomputer changes as a function of time and the throughput

capability of the largest general-purpose systems. In 1982, we

define supercomputers as systems which have a capacity of over 50

million floating point operations per second (MFLOPS). (This is

maximum or burst-made capacity not sustained speed.)

These systems can be divided into two general classes. The first

class consists of systems which are designed to operate in real

time, generally for military types of signal processing. They

fall outside the scope of our study and are not covered in this

report

.

The second class of supercomputer consists of those systems which

are intended for scientific use, and which operate on a non-real

time basis. These systems have been undergoing a slow evolution

over the past several years. After testing several architectures,

the industry has settled on the vector type of supercomputers.

Two major manufacturers (Control Data and Cray Research, Inc.)

dominate the industry at the current time. Their largest systems

have a capacity in the order of magnitude of 100 MFLOPS. Both

have announced new systems which promise performance capacities

of 1.5 to 3 times the capacity of current systems.

Both the Control Data and Cray machines are beginning to

incorporate parallel processing principles to a significant

degree. Several of the Japanese general-purpose computer

manufacturers are also working on supercomputers that combine

conventional and parallel principles. (If their targets are

achieved, these Japanese machines are likely to be the world's

fastest when delivered.) The matrix manipulation "Array

Processors" have also started to encroach upon the supercomputer

market, but only for those classes of problems which fit their

rigid architectures.

2,1.2.4 Mass Storage Systems

Current mass storage systems mainly consist of various forms of

mainframe-controlled storage hierarchies. These hierarchies

normally contain:

o a mainframe cache memory,

o a slow semiconductor mainframe memory,

o several billion bytes of moving head disk storage

controlled by a separate, simple controller,

o magnetic tapes to act as archival storage, again

controlled by a simple controller (the tapes can

be either in reel or cartridge form)

.

These systems automate the movement of data between levels of the

hierarchy, as well as vastly increasing the storage capacity of

the hierarchy.

16
The combination of two or more storage technologies in a single

device provides characteristics which cannot be obtained with a single technology. The most frequent example of this type of

development is in the area of disk systems. New products will

combine serial-addressed inexpensive semiconductor or bubble

devices with moving head disks to combine the storage capacity of

the current disks with vastly reduced average access times.

Alternatively, the mainframe memory can be backed up by a larger

page buffer, sometimes called a "solid state disk." Cray

Research, for example, has announced such a device.

Electro-optical devices such as video discs (see section 2.2.4.3

for more detail) are expected to play an increasing role for

mass storage of potentially vast proportions. They are also

likely to find use in hierarchical structures, with semiconductor

cache memories complementing their slow access characteristics.

These approaches include the Content-Addressable File Store

(CAFS) system, as offered by ICL. This system combines a specially modified set of discs with several associative

processors to form an associative database processor. This

processor allows processing speeds in the order of one to two

orders of magnitude over what can be obtained using serial

architecture. Associative processors such as these have the

potential for supporting very large databases (>100 billion

bytes) without the need for the complex hashing and indexing

mechanisms required when using general-purpose processors.

Several other types of database processors are also being

offered, usually by small, entrepreneurial companies. These

generally have limited capability, but improved models are likely

to appear. They are available in the $30 , 000-$150 , 000 range, and

some have specialized hardware for database management.

In the software area, the industrial laboratories are concentrating on operating systems, telecommunications, and database

management software which will permit already existing application programs to make maximum use of the new storage hierarchy

capabilities as they become available. The enhancements of basic

access methods to permit paging, streaming, and automatic

accesses to the entire database are examples of such work. Other

research in the "working set" characteristics of large files and

the properties of automatic migration algorithms is also being

actively pursued.

2.1.3 1982-1987

2.1.3.1 General-Purpose Processors

Systems will continue to become more modular throughout the

entire forecast period with each module becoming associated with

a single or small set of functions. Most modules will be

equipped with a capability for directly supporting or executing

high-level language statements in microcode. Such a capability

permits faster execution of programs that are written in the

appropriate languages (e.g., Pascal, Ada (Ada is a trademark of

17
the Department of Defense) , COBOL, FORTRAN, or PL/1) without

requiring logic circuits of extremely high speed. Such

capabilities are already present in numerous processors. Both

interpretive and compiled versions of several languages will

become available.

The compilers will produce an intermediate level of code which

can be efficiently executed using microcoded routines. The

interpreters will directly execute the source code.

Input/output processors will also use microcode. Future

introductions of microcode for input/output processors will cause

their capabilities to evolve in the direction of more independent

operation, a higher degree of internally stored program

capability, and more versatility in controlling communication

networks directly without interruption of the central processor

uni t

.

Microcode and systems programs will be largely separately priced

by 1987, so their costs must be added to hardware costs. The

present 10 percent - 15 percent of system cost for systems

programs is expected to have increased to as much as 40 percent - 50 percent of system cost for some users by 1987.

2.1.3.2 Parallel Processors

During the early to mid-1980 's, we expect to see three general

types of parallel processors become widely available from

manufacturers of both mainframes and minicomputers. The vector

processor consists of multiple pipeline processors which are

optimized to handle large scientific, signal processing, and Fast

Fourier Transform types of problems. The systems produced by

CDC, Cray, and Floating Point Systems are current examples of

this type of system. They will steadily improve in priceperformance across a broad price range.

The second type of processor consists of multiple associative

memory type processors. Each of these processors will be used in

conjunction with a general-purpose system using channel-tochannel, shared disk, or high-speed bus links. It is expected

that they will come in a variety of sizes and be used for

scientific, commercial, and office automation applications.

Systems of this type are currently being produced by ICL (CAFS)

and Britton Lee.

The third type, which is similar to the Burroughs Scientific

Processor (whose development was prematurely terminated) , and the

Denelcor HEP, consists of multiple processing units (optimized

for floating point matrix operations) combined in a single system

with one or more controlling instruction interpretation units.

This multiple instruction-multiple data (MIMD) type of processor

has been progressing very slowly over the past several years. It

now appears as if it may not come into large-scale use until the

late 1980 's, if at all. Its market niche is rapidly being filled

18
by large pipelined processors, such as those produced by CDC and

Cray. Trilogy Systems' planned product also seems destined for a similar market niche.

The non-associative parallel processors will continue to be used

for specialized jobs such as signal processing, linear equation

solving, air traffic control, graphical data processing, etc.

Associative processors will be experimentally used for database

processing. Associative processors are expected to appear in

relatively large numbers only towards the mid-1980 's, whereas the

vector processors are already becoming available at reasonable

pr ices

.

All of these processors will be composed of LSI (large scale

integration) or VLSI (very large scale integration) chips, and

will be hardwired. The vector and MIMD processors will be controlled by normal machine level instructions, while the

associative processors are expected to be of relatively fixed

function with a very small instruction set.

2.1.3.3 Supercomputers

The Cray and CDC vector type of supercomputers are expected to

dominate the supercomputer market for the next three to five

years. Cray has already announced two new systems, the larger of

which is expected to have a 300 MFLOP capacity with a main

storage size of over 10 million words. Due to the time required

to develop new supercomputers and the early state of the

many competing architectures which are being discussed in

academic circles, there appears to be no new system architecture

which could come into commercial production during this period to

rival those of the two industry leaders.

Speeds will increase. The latest supercomputer announcement

incorporating increasing parallelism claims speeds in the 600-800

MFLOP range. One thousand MFLOP speed should easily be obtained

during this period. Due to the increased throughput of generalpurpose systems in combination with attached array processors, it

is likely that such a hybrid configuration with 100 MFLOP

capability will be considered to be in the general-purpose

computer class by 1987.

2.1.3.4 Mass Storage Systems

File processors will begin to supersede today's disk file controllers, with greatly expanded capability. Recently announced

versions (the IBM 3880 Models 11 and 13) already manage a hierarchy of storage devices (magnetic tapes or tape cartridge

devices, disk drives, and large buffer storage) in such a way

that the contents of the entire file library of the user will be

available to the system on-line, but with the access times to

parts of the file automatically adapted by the system as it moves

portions of the file up and down the device hierarchy in response

to demand. The file processors will also perform a substantial

part of the "housekeeping" that is now part of the operating

19
system or the database manager, and which is the same for all

users. By moving these file control or housekeeping functions

from the central processor to the file processor, the user will

obtain higher throughput from the central processor and greater

ease of use because the file control functions can be separated

from user programs and performed in an automatic manner.

The specialized peripheral device manufacturers and the database

management system vendors have already begun to deliver fully

integrated back-end database processors. The major manufacturers

are expected to follow soon. These systems are expected to be

priced from $200,000 for a complete system with software, processors and one billion bytes of on-line storage to $1,000,000 for a system with eight to ten billion bytes of on-line storage. Some

of these systems will be based on specialized disk files and

groups of associative processors. These systems would substitute

for the software DBMS systems and would preserve the major DBMS

interfaces and the user query language interfaces. These systems

will be especially useful for databases which contain little

hierarchical structure and/or where users frequently query the

database with "fuzzy" or only partially formulated requests. The

first commercial system of this type (from ICL) has already

shown the ability to retrieve a name and address from the London

telephone directory using only the first initial, a partial

spelling of the last name and a general area of London as the

address . 2,1,4 1987-1992

2.1.4.1 General-Purpose Processors

Bus-oriented system architectures will predominate. The modules

in the system will perform a variety of specialized functions,

largely determined by microprograms in control stores associated

with each module. It should be possible to modify the function

of a module (within limits) by changing its microprogram. For

example, a given module can be emulating the function of a past

hardware-software environment while another is working in a new

native mode.

Special microcode modifications will be made on an extra-cost

basis by the manufacturer. Costs for such modifications will be

relatively high, but may be acceptable to users requiring large

numbers of modules.

2.1.4.2 Parallel Processors

More types of specialized processors with internal architectures

specifically adapted to the class of problems to be solved will

become commercially available. Array processors and associative

processors will become normal parts of large general-purpose

systems. MIMD processors will also be available in small numbers

for specialized purposes.

20
Data driven type processors, in which the control algorithms are

either hard-wired or microcoded permanently into the processors,

are expected to become available primarily for control type

operations in the mid-to-late 1980 's. It appears that they could

be incorporated in the general-purpose computer systems of the

mid-to-late 1980 's to take the place of the current software or microcode implemented processors. Such processors would improve

the throughput of general-purpose systems by off-loading

functions performed in parallel at high speed.

Most types of parallel processors are expected to be in full

production during this period. Special architecture processors

for all sizes of systems will be made available for such tasks as

voice recognition, pattern recognition, image manipulation, and

other specialized tasks needed to support the multi-media distributed networks of the period.

Parallel processors using special very large scale integration

(VLSI) chips are expected to be emphasized due to the nature of

the tasks to be accomplished and the advances in technology. The

availability of compilers and other software development tools

which permit easy use of these systems will be critical in

establishing the relative popularity of the various competing

architecture systems.

2.1.4.3 Supercomputers

Three major processor types will be available for use as

supercomputers during this period. They are:

o Multiple Instruction - Multiple Data

(MIMD) processors;

o Vector processors; and

o Data driven processors.

The supercomputers of this period will achieve throughputs of 500

to 1200 MFLOPS, with main storage sizes in the range of 50

million to 500 million words. Supercomputer development will be

aided by the very high speed integrated circuit (VHSIC)

developments currently being sponsored by the Department of

Defense.

The successful architecture ( s) will in part be determined by the

ability of the new systems to run the older vector processor

software. Some of the larger users have already stated that an

incompatible system would have to have three to five times the

throughput of compatible vector processors before the users would

consider converting their existing programs to use the

incompatible systems.

21
2.1.4.4 Mass Storage Systems

During this period a variety of mass storage systems from simple

cache disks through complete back-end processors will be

available to meet the many storage needs of the users. These

systems will be produced at many price levels allowing systems

from small through extra large to have some type of intelligent

mass storage system at costs which are no more than 1/3 of the

overall system costs. In systems which support multiple

databases, multiple database processors with varying amounts of

private and shared mass storage will become common. The costs of

these subsystems will be dominated by the storage costs, with the

costs of the processors and interconnecting logic forming 10

percent or less of the overall system costs.

The eventual role of associative processors and memories is not

yet clearly defined. For example, they could largely solve

present structural and relational problems in databases and

permit much faster processing of database oriented transactions.

Text searching could also become a major use of such systems.

However, the improved cost performance of conventional systems

may make these problems less severe for many users, and in any

case the evolution of software and user applications for more

radical forms of processors will take many years. As was

indicated earlier, associative processors will most likely be

used for applications where "fuzzy" or semi-structured queries

are used in conjunction with a relatively unstructured database.

Some of the more complex file processing systems will be able to

handle simple queries without any application processor

intervention. In such systems, queries will be directed from the

input/output processor directly to the file processor and back

again, thus freeing the application processors for the more

complex computationally-oriented tasks and increasing the

parallel processing capacity and thus the throughput of the

overall system.

2,1,5 1992-1997

2.1.5.1 General-Purpose Processors

By this time the manufacturers will be incrementally introducing

varieties of new and improved application processors as well as

new types of special processors as technology and marketing

constraints permit; there will be no more "generations" of entire

systems. These new processors will connect to the same buses as

the older processors and work as part of the same integrated

systems. Thus, users will be able to upgrade their systems

through a gradual evolutionary process rather than replacing

complete systems.

In most cases, these new processors will be upward compatible

from the older processors in terms of software but not in terms

of microcode. Thus, any specialized microcode generated for

users on a contract basis may be obsoleted by the introduction of

22
a new processor. However, as long as all of the application

processors on a system are not replaced at once, the manufacturer

can generate new microcode for the new processors while users

employ the old microcode on the old processors during the

development period.

The data driven or data-flow type systems should become standard

products during this period. Some types (with fixed programming)

will be used as subsystems in large processors, as the hardware

implementations of control algorithms such as for processor

scheduling, or for other special-purpose applications. Programmable data-flow processors are primarily being investigated for

use in various signal processing applications and in other applications where a great deal of parallelism could be effectively

used. This latter type of data-flow processor would directly

compete with the various types of MIMD processors.

The "Fifth Generation" computer system, (so named by its Japanese

proponents) , now being heavily publicized and supported in Japan,

is intended to replace all sizes of currently produced generalpurpose systems. It is intended to be more cost effective than

current-day systems, and to be accessible to non-data processing

trained users by means of voice and picture input mechanisms

(figure 2.1) . The heart of this system is to be based on

artificial intelligence, knowledge- based system concepts which

are now slowly moving from laboratory development to commercial

implementation in a few very specialized areas.

At the present time, work on the "Fifth-Generation" system is in

the research stage. It will be several years before sufficient

data is available to determine how closely its goals can be met.

We forecast that this type of system will slowly evolve from the

earlier modular systems rather than appear in the form of

completely new systems which replace the older systems. Many of

the functions shown in figure 2,1 could be implemented in

special-purpose processors which could be added to modular

processors. In this manner, the manufacturers would lessen the

chance of competitive penetration into their existing customer

base by slowly upgrading their systems rather than requiring a total swap-out of equipment. In addition, using the gradual

upgrade method, the user's investment in existing application

software could be more easily protected, and gradual upgrades of

existing application systems could be accomplished over an

extended period.

By 1997, then, we believe that some significant aspects of the

fifth-generation knowledge-based systems are likely to be

available (at least for professional, analytic, and decisionsupport functions). They are likely to appear as specialized

processing modules teamed with more conventional ones in busoriented systems.

23
EXTERNAL INTERFACE

HIGH-LEVEL

INQUIRY

LANGUAGE

ACCESS USING NATURAL

LANGUAGE SPEECH

AND PICTURES

FIFTH-GENERATION

COMPUTER KERNEL

LANGUAGE

BASIC SOFTWARE SYSTEM

KNOWLEDGE-BASED

MANAGEMENT

SYSTEM

PROBLEM-SOLVING

AND INFERENCE

SYSTEM

INTELLIGENTINTERFACE

SYSTEM

HARDV\/ARE SYSTEM

KNOWLEDGE-BASED

MACHINE

RELATIONAL

ALGEBRA

RELATIONAL

DATA-BASE

MECHANISM

PROBLEM-SOLVING AND

INFERENCE MACHINE

LOGIC PROGRAMMING

LANGUAGE

ABSTRACT DATA-TYPE

SUPPORT MECHANISM

DATA-FLOW PROCESSING

MECHANISM

INNOVATIVE VON NEUMANN

MECHANISM

1

INTELLIGENT-INTERFACE

MACHINE

i

VERY LARGE-SCALE INTEGRATED ARCHITECTURE

GATEWAY TO

NETWORK OF

OTHER FIFTHGENERATION

SYSTEMS

Source: Japan Information Processing Development Center

FIGURE 2.1 POSSIBLE FIFTH GENERATION ARCHITECTURE
Figure 2.2 summarizes our views of the rates at which novel

architectures are likely to appear in the various kinds of

processors

.

2.1.5.2 Parallel Processors

Most parallel processors of this period will be built using

specially designed large-scale chips. Improvements in the

design, automation, and software generation facilities of the

period will permit these chips to be developed and programmed at

relatively low costs, thus encouraging a proliferation of

different types of chips for such specialized jobs as voice

recognition, pattern recognition, graphic data processing, and

signal processing. These will be incorporated into specialized

functional modules of bus-oriented systems.

2.1.5.3 Supercomputers

Studies in the late 1970 's and early 1980 's have identified

several classes of problems which require systems having throughputs in the one hundred thousand to one million MFLOP range.

These problems include simulations of reactors, complex process

plants, petroleum reservoirs, and weather models.

Therefore, we project that systems with significantly increased

throughput and main storage capacity will continue to appear

through the 1990 's. These systems will probably require nonsilicon based circuit technologies, even though high degrees of

parallelism are employed.

It seems likely that systems having throughputs approaching one

hundred thousand MFLOPS will become available by 1997. Most of

the improvement relative to today's supercomputers will come from

the twenty-fold improvement in circuit speed forecast below; the

rest is expected to come from architectural improvements. The

exact architectures of their systems cannot be clearly defined,

although it is known that they must involve a very high degree of

parallelism in order to avoid physical limitations of signal

propagation. It may be that the long-range pacing factor in

supercomputer performance will be software, particularly the

ability of compilers to fully exploit the parallelism inherent in

the applications.

2.1.5.4 Mass Storage Systems

Advances in mass storage technology, particularly in magnetic

bubbles and electro-optical devices, will permit larger volumes

of non-volatile removable storage to be put on systems of all

classes. During this period much of the storage will be occupied

with non-coded information such as video signals, pictures,

documents in facsimile form, and voice recordings. The hardware

structure and variety of mass storage systems from cache disk

through complete back-end processors will remain unchanged from

the late 1980 's, but the software will have been significantly

modified to be able to process this non-encoded data. Special

! 25

indexing schemes and knowledge-based associative routines

primarily contained within the back-end processors themselves

will have been developed, using attributes of the data to permit

easy retrieval of specific items and the correlation of data

contained within multiple items. Separate hierarchies for

specific types of data will be developed.

Costs of such systems will continue to be dominated by the cost

of the storage media and mechanisms rather than by the

electronics and software. However, the software associated with

these mass storage systems will represent an increasing

proportion of the total mass storage system costs, reaching

perhaps 15 percent of the total system costs for large, complex

mass storage systems with specialized processing algorithms. As

with the general-purpose processors, it is likely that the

manufacturers will provide, on a contract basis, specially

microcoded or designed chips to implement complex types of data

manipulation

.

2.2 LOGIC AND STORAGE COMPONENTS

2.2.1 Introduction

This section is organized by type of technology. Section 2.2.2

is devoted to semiconductor technology, covering semiconductor

logic and processor storage. Section 2.2,3 discusses potentially

competitive technologies for logic and processor storage.

Section 2,2,4 discusses mass storage technologies; magnetic disk,

magnetic tape, and video disc. Finally, section 2,2,5 summarizes

the cbst and performance forecasts for all the competing types of

storage components in a common form. The discussions in this

section speak of continuous evolution; point forecasts of performance and price appear in the tables and figures,

2.2.2 Semiconductor Technology

2.2.2.1 Logic Devices

These are manufactured by a variety of technologies (processes)

which provide differing performance/cost trade-offs in respect to

such performance factors as:

o speed (delay)

o complexity and memory content on one chip

and in one package

o power dissipation

o logic form and arithmetic power

o logic and supply voltages

27
o noise immunity

o package size and number of leads

Improvements are being sought in all these areas, most particularly in regard to complexity, speed, and power dissipation.

The maximum number of transistors which can be placed on one

silicon chip--as well as their speed— is limited by the total

power (converted to heat) a packaged semiconductor chip can

dissipate. For conventional ceramic or plastic packages, this

power limit is the 0.5-1 watt range. With special packages and

heat dissipating fins an upper limit of 7 watts has been practical. This is required (for example) by a 32-bit microprocessor

central processing unit (CPU) operating at 18 MHz and containing

about 430,000 transistors in its architecture. With further

improvement in devices, their internal speed can be increased by

another factor of 3-5 at no significant increase in power.

Gallium arsenide discrete transistors can operate at frequencies

2-3 times higher than those made of silicon. Now gallium

arsenide devices are being successfully integrated into very high

speed logic circuits. Thousand-gate complex logic circuits with

step delays of only 50 picoseconds have been developed in the

laboratory, and such devices will be available in 2-3 years to

provide still higher speed, at similar power, than silicon

devices. Gallium arsenide can also be operated at higher temperatures than silicon, raising the upper limits for conventional

integrated circuit packages to 1-2 watts, and for packages with

fins cooled by forced air to 8-10 watts. Thus, logic devices

operating at gigabit rates will become available after 1985 —both

in silicon and gallium arsenide.

Recently, it was discovered that cooling gallium arsenide

transistors or special doping can increase electron mobility in

the material, thus substantially increasing their switching

speed. Such devices, while slower than cryogenic Josephson

junction devices, require less costly cooling and thus may offer

intermediate cost-performance trade-offs. For room- temperature

high-speed operation, some specially doped gallium arsenide will

be used in the future, both for logic and memory, though with

less complexity than silicon devices.

Optical integrated circuits are being developed using gallium

arsenide that combine optoelectronic transmission and detection

devices with further electronic circuits to interface digital

electronic logic with fiber-optic transmission lines. Their use

will be widespread by the late 1980 's.

Figure 2.3 summarizes our forecasts of the speeds of the various

semiconductor logic technologies. The corresponding forecast for

cryogenic (Josephson junction) technology, which is discussed in

section 2.2.3, is included for comparison.

28
FIGURE 2.3 TRENDS IN DEVICE SPEED - STAGE DELAY

PER GATE CIRCUIT FOR DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES
Chip complexity has reached 450,000 transistors for several 32-

bit microprocessor designs announced recently. Complexity will

reach several million devices by the mid-1980 's, in laboratory

developments, though the rate of progress in mass-produced

devices may not increase at the same rapid pace (figure 2.4).

Practical and economical chip sizes are increasing slowly from 20

to 50 square millimeters. The complexity is primarily being

increased by shrinking the size of individual transistors through

reduction of their feature size and linewidths of the patterns

lithographed on the chips.

To achieve the anticipated complexity, linewidths achieved in

processing devices by means of photolithography will be shrunk

further, from two to three micron lines used in current devices

to under one micron in early production by 1982 (figure 2,5),

Present production uses optical lithography from masks. This

becomes severely limited when one micron lines are produced.

' Thereafter, the most critical production steps will use electronbeam, x-ray or ion-beam exposure of resists on the device wafers

or ultimately by direct ion writing for implantation and etching.

Advanced laboratory devices will have small micron and submicron

linewidths earlier, as indicated also in figure 2,5, For

example, the VHSIC program for achieving very high computing

speeds in the one-chip signal processors plans to attain 1,25

micron lines soon and 0,7 micron lines by 1986, A distant

possibility for the 1990 's is optical logic, where still higher

* speeds may be achieved by directly processing light signals.

Semiconductor logic is rarely implemented at the discrete

component level any more. Multiple components are usually

fabricated on each chip, either in the form of universal or

master chips, or as microprocessors. Programmable logic arrays

combining memory with output registers and logic switches are

becoming common. They are discussed separately.

Universal or master chip (functional or gate arrays) designs have

been used since the 1960 's. These contain a number of elementary

functions—transistors, various types of gates, flip-flops — in a standardized array. To implement a complex function, the final

masks provide the necessary interconnections. The same basic

chip design, with different interconnections, can implement a number of different complex functions provided no more elements

are required than are available on the chip. This method has

been especially attractive for chips used in large high-speed

computers. Here the small volume of any one part and the rich

variety desired makes the master chip a more economical choice

than a large number of individual custom designs. Such gate

arrays are also being used more widely for other applications.

At present, high-speed gate arrays with 1000-8000 equivalent

gates on a chip are offered under the names "uncommitted logic"

or "gate array". By 1992, 100,000 gates on one chip may be in

30
10'

>

VO

0)a

10^

10'

10^ -

10"^

Q Dynamic RAM

# Microprocessors

Advanced

/

HP-32 /

« •^^256K

RAM

1970 1975 1980

Introduction Year

1985

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.

FIGURE 2.4 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPLEXITY

OF INTEGRATED CIRCUITS

31
10

O.ll I III''''' ' ' \ I I I I L_J! I I 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.

FIGURE 2J5 MINIMUM LINEWIDTH FOR SEMICONDUCTOR MICROLITHOGRAPHY
use. These will not only have mask programmed pa tterns--wi th

masks made on computer controlled electron-beam equipment — but

the patterns may be directly written on the silicon wafer. In

this fashion it is quite possible that successive chips on a silicon wafer will have enough different circuits written so as

to implement the whole computer. This is one form of wafer-scale

integration. For this, the electron beam writing equipment must

first probe the elements on the wafer to route around inoperative

transistors. In these cases, the electron beam pattern writer

becomes the computer terminal for creating another computer.

Another programmable semiconductor device increasingly used in

computers is the programmable logic array (PLA) . This contains

two or three levels of read-only memory with input and output

latches, which is programmed for the truth table of the logic it

replaces. A number of PLA configurations can be programmed (by

mask, laser or blowing fuses) from each generic design. They can

be programmed quickly and can replace a large combination of

ordinary logic devices. Thus, PLAs are expected to reduce the

cost of complex random logic circuits, especially where small

numbers of a wide variety of closely similar circuits are

required

.

Custom designed semiconductor circuits have been used primarily

where high volume of use could justify the high cost of designing

a custom part. Recent advances in computer-aided design and mask

manufacture have brought down the cost of designing custom semiconductor devices. A large number of macrocell circuits,

representing fairly complex circuit functions already in use, can

be combined in a computer-generated layout and manufactured to

implement new complex functions from their Boolean or Register

logic descriptions. Algorithms for circuit cell placement, for

routing interconnections and maintaining all required design

tolerances, have now been developed to handle custom chip designs

with 5,000 to 30,000 gates automatically and larger designs with

moderate manual engineering intervention. This design technology

is most easily applied to gate arrays, but is also applicable to

fully customized designs. By 1992, even more complex circuits

may be custom designed and the circuits imprinted directly on the

silicon wafers by means of electron beam lithography equipment.

New one-chip architectures will be explored as it becomes easier

to fabricate complex custom semiconductor integrated circuits

through application of computer aided design and structured

design routines and formats.

Microprocessors offer an alternative means of fabricating many

logic components on a single chip. Of standard design, they are

tailored to specific functions by stored programs (microcode)

.

These are stored either on the microprocessor chip itself or on

separate read-only memory (ROM)

.

The earliest microprocessor devices were derived from multi- and

single-chip calculator devices that operate with four bits of

data and instructions. The earliest units, introduced around

1971, contained some 2,000 transistors. While in electronic

33
calculators, these could operate alone or in conjunction with

separate small memory, single display driver, and keyboard

interface devices; as microcomputers they might require on the

order of 20 or more additional logic and interface devices to

provide a working system. From that time on, more functional

capabilities have been condensed onto single devices to reduce

the number of additional devices per system. Bit capabilities

expanded to 16 and 32 bits and input/output (I/O) and memory

access improved. The following are now available:

o 4-bit Metal Oxide - Silicon (MOS) microprocessors.

These are primarily one-chip systems used as lowcost controllers for appliance and many other

applications. Memory and I/O expansion are

aval lable

.

o 8-bit MOS microprocessors , These are available in

a range of architectures and complexity. The most

recent ones can implement a small microcomputer

system on only one chip, including a considerable

amount of memory internal to the basic arithmeticlogic unit.

o 16-bit microprocessors. Introduced several years

ago, these are now offered program-compatible with

earlier 8-bit microprocessors, with 16-bit minicomputer software, or presenting totally new architectures with upward compatibility to serve 8-bit

and 16-bit bus structures.

o 32-bit microprocessors . These were first introduced

in 1981. Some were either software compatible with

32-bit minicomputers or with earlier 16-bit microprocessor families. Others have totally new

architectures and can implement high level languages, though they also can emulate the instructions

of 16-bit microprocessors of the same family and can

use related 16-bit peripheral controllers. Compatible floating point co-processors have been introduced which enhance the computational capabilities

of a family.

o 4-bit bipolar bit-sl ice devices. For highest speed,

bipolar semiconductor processors must be used that

allow fewer transistors to be placed on a single

chip. Thus, a bit-slice architecture is used, and

as many of these bit-slice devices are used in

parallel as are needed to create the word length of

the desired microcomputer.

In the future, microcomputers developed by the major

manufacturers will fall into three or four families:

a low-cost family, primarily based on an expandable

single-chip microcomputer;

34
a medium-performance, med i urn- pr iced family ranging

from a single-chip microcomputer to a related multichip family using the same software;

a high-performance processor and associated peripheral devices; and

a very-high performance family for special scientific and numeric applications.

The semiconductor devices, architecture, and software will remain

internally compatible within one family as it evolves in the

future, but may not be interchangeable between different

f amil ies . Recent demand for higher processing speeds than can be obtained

from microprocessors has led to the development of arithmetic or numeric processors which can act as co-processors with several

types of microprocessors. Presently such arithmetic processors

can handle directly 8- and 16-bit real and complex numbers, with

extensions to 64- and 80-bit floating point capability at a slower speed. Transcendental functions such as exponential,

trigonometric, and logarithmic functions are readily handled.

Computation speed ranges to 2 MIPS (millions of instructions per

second). These devices contain up to 450,000 equivalent transistors and their architecture is derived from that of fast

scientific computers. Further extensions of these capabilities

are being developed with higher speeds and a wider instruction

set. The computation speed will also increase with a still

greater degree of parallelism in operation by use of pipeline

architecture of the kind now used on the high-speed parallel

mul tipl ier s

.

Figure 2.6 presents our forecast of the dates of introduction of

microprocessors of successively increasing data bit width (and

therefore speed) , while figure 2,7 presents our forecast of the

future prices of existing microprocessor classes. A corresponding price trend can be expected for the universal logic or gate

array discussed above.

2.2.2.2 Semiconductor Memory

Because of their small size per memory bit, high speed, and low

manufacturing cost, semiconductor memories are now used nearly

exclusively. Standard semiconductor devices can provide 64,000

bits of random- access memory (RAM) or read-only memory (ROM)

storage on one chip, and 256,000-bit chips are now being

developed, so that for many small-scale applications such as

terminals and minicomputers the requisite amount of main,

control, and program memory can be obtained with just a few

dev ices

.

Major performance factors of semiconductor memory are complexity

per chip, speed, and price. Slow dynamic RAM devices with access

in the 100-300 nanosecond range are now beginning to be available

35
FIGURE 2.6 MICROPROCESSOR BIT CAPABILITY VS YEAR OF INTRODUCTION

(FOR ONE- AND MULTI-CHIP ARCHITECTURES)

36
FIGURE 2.7 MEDIAN MICROPROCESSOR PRICE VS TIME

(1000 UNIT PURCHASE)

i 37
with 16k- to 64k-bit complexity at a price of 10 mill icents/bit

or less (in large quantity orders); faster static RAM chips with

30-50 nanosecond access times are available with 16k-bit and 64kbit complexity at prices of 80-150 millicents per bit.

Conventional semiconductor memories will continue to be

manufactured throughout the forecast period. Figure 2.8 and 2.9

show our forecast of the complexity (number of bits per chip) of

RAM and ROM semiconductor chips. High-speed chips (tens of

nanoseconds access time today, declining to a few nanoseconds by

the 1990 's) will increase from about 16k to a least 100k bits per

chip. General-purpose slower-speed chips, with access times of

about 200-300 nanoseconds today declining to perhaps 30

nanoseconds by 1997, will increase to several million bits per

chip. The "million bit chip" should become available by 1989.

Good manufacturing yields to achieve high bit content and low

cost are being aided by use of redundant bits for replacing

defective bits on-chip.

Figures 2.10 and 2.11 show our forecast of semiconductor memory

prices per bit for the RAM and ROM types, respectively. Both / slow- and high-speed devices should decline in cost by two orders

of magnitude by 1997.

Fixed or rewritable fast storage is becoming increasingly

important. Mask-programmed read-only semiconductor memory (ROM)

is low in cost and has advanced to 128k-bit complexity using

dense geometry. A 2-level storage cell has also been introduced

to increase storage density. An experimented 1-megabit character

generator chip for Kan j i displays has also been described.

Non-volatile electrically rewritable semiconductor memories

(electrically programmable, electrically erasable and

programmable, and electrically alterable read-only memories,

respectively abbreviated EPROM, EEPROM and EAROM) , use either

ultraviolet light, or now, electrical signals for erasure.

Though these cost 2-5 times as much as the lowest cost memory,

their use is economical where occasional revision and nonvolatile content are desirable. Access time is similar to slowspeed memory but writing time is two orders of magnitude longer.

In 1997, both logic and memory using silicon devices will still

be improving, though at a slower rate. Among the four

determining factors (cell size, chip size, wafer size and defect

density) , at least one or two should still be capable of further

improvement. Gallium arsenide will see use for very high-speed

logic, but ultimately will not greatly exceed the speed of

silicon-based semiconductor devices at room temperature.

'However, by cooling gallium arsenide with liquid nitrogen, still

higher logic speeds may be attained.

38
a

i/i

ffi>

o

E

10^

10=

10*

10'

Introduction

MOS-Dynamic

Slow-Sqeed

I

J L

r—-

1

j Major Shipment

MOS Static Medium Speed

I J L

J I I L

j

Major

Shipments

MOS-Dynamic

r

1 Million

512k

56k

128k

Major Shipment

MOS and Bipolar

High Speed

till

1977 1982 1987 1992

64k

Q. -32k "

a. m

16k

8k

4k

Ik 1997

Source: Arthur D, Little, Inc., estimates.

FIGURE 2.8 COMPLEXITY (BIT SIZE) OF SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY:

RAM {RANDOM ACCESS) FAMILY, STATIC AND DYNAMIC.

BY SPEED CLASS

39
8 Million

4 Million

2 Million

1 Million

512k

256k

128k

64 k

32k

16k

ROM

I I

! . !

I

j EPROM

I

I

I I I I

EEPROM

J 1 J_ L J 1 I L

1977 1982

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.

1987 1992 1997

FIGURE 2.9 COMPLEXITY (BIT SIZE) OF SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY:

ROM (READ-ONLY) VS YEAR OF INTRODUCTION

40
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.

FIGURE 2.10 SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY COMPONENT PRICES (PER BIT):

RAM (RANDOM ACCESS) BY SPEED CLASS

41
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.

FIGURE 2.11 READ-ONLY SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY COMPONENT PRICES

(PER BIT) BY TYPE

42
2,2,3 Other Logic and Memory Techno log ies

2.2.3.1 Charge-coupled Devices (CCD)

CCD technology has been developed intensively since 1971 and has

benefitted from some of the general advances in the fabrication

of silicon devices.

However, CCDs have not been used in large numbers because they

have suffered from yield and reliability problems and have no

cost advantage over serially-accessed RAM. CCD devices are not

likely to capture a significant share of the serial memory

market in the future unless their cost per bit drops to less than

half that of conventional semiconductors. Little use of CCDs is

expected except in optical processing (for digitizing and storing

images) and digital filtering.

2.2.3.2 Cryogenic (Josephson Junctions)

A completely new technology, with considerable but distant

promise, is that associated with the superconductive tunnel

junction. Certain devices, when cooled to near absolute zero —

the temperature at which many materials become superconductive —

can be switched between the superconducting and normal states by

small changes in the local magnetic field. These changes can be

provided by an adjacent superconducting control circuit. When

this change is observed in a superconductive tunneling function,

this is the so-called Josephson effect. It can be employed to

make memory and logic circuits which consume less power and

occupy less space than conventional circuits while operating at

very much higher speeds. However, many theoretical and practical

problems remain to be investigated and overcome before such

devices could become practicable. One major constraint on their

application is that they would have to operate in a cryogenic

environment (near absolute zero) , with its associated cooling

apparatus and its added cost and space requirements.

Laboratory devices and computer modules have been demonstrated

with switching speeds of about four picoseconds and a power delay

product 1,000 or more times better than that of semiconductor

circuits. Memory access times of one nanosecond or even less

appear possible. This technology offers an improvement in

computing speed exceeding an order of magnitude.

Cryogenic technology is the only known alternative to

semiconductor technology that offers significantly increased

speed for data processing (optical logic appears applicable to

high-speed signal processing, but signal processing as such is

outside the scope of this report) . It is therefore likely to be

pursued for supercomputers and perhaps for the most demanding

signal processing applications. Work continues on cryogenic

computers, especially at IBM, and some systems may be in use by

the late 1980 's (as indicated in figure 2.3). However, we doubt

that cryogenics will ever see general data processing use. The

improvement potential of conventional silicon and gallium

43
arsenide- based electronics is so great that it should meet

virtually all needs at low cost except those for the highest

speeds, without requiring expensive investments by users and

manufacturers alike in exotic technology and elaborate mechanical

cryogenic refrigerators.

2.2.3.3 Magnetic Bubble

Magnetic bubble memory systems offer several advantages over

conventional technologies for non-mechanical magnetic storage:

o non- volat il i ty (data is retained when power is

turned off)

;

o high bit-packing density up to 10 million bits per

square inch has been achieved and 100 million bits

per square inch is possible;

o low power consumption since one rotating in-place

drive field can move many millions of bubbles;

o the ruggedness and small size of the all solid

state system; and

o an excellent error rate (better than one in

ten billion has been demonstrated) . Bubble technology has two intrinsic disadvantages: it is more

difficult to fabricate and it is slower than semiconductor

technology by about two orders of magnitude, if the bubble memory

is organized to minimize cost (in long shift registers).

Different architectures and organizations can provide an order of

magnitude difference in access time and cost. Redundancy

techniques are essential to minimize the influence of

manufacturing defects.

Most manufacturers of bubbles believe they must achieve a chip

capacity of at least one million bits and a device price level

of 0.01 cents per bit before their products will be viable. This

price target is being approached, and chip capacities reached one

million bits in 1980. A 4-megabit chip is now under development.

Bubble memory component kits are offered to users in 1982 at

costs of about 40 millicents per bit, including the peripheral

devices. Prices will decline slowly toward those of semiconductors through the 1980 's and then level off because of

minimum bubble diameter limits; device price per bit should be

below 5 millicents in the early 1990 's, varying widely with chip

designs and access time, but approaching the price of the

cheapest semiconductor memory.

Magnetic bubble technology will be applied selectively,

particularly in terminals and small, portable devices of selected

kinds, offering as it does small size, light weight and

information survivability (and where its slow speed is no

44
impediment). In other applications, higher-priced erasable rewritable EEPROM or lower-priced serially-accessed semiconductor

RAM will be used.

2.2.3.4 Semiconductor Serial Store (Disk)

The rapidly decreasing cost of semiconductor memory has led to

the use of RAM chips in a serially-accessed architecture to

replace magnetic drum or disks used as cache or buffer store for

large disk stores. Such semiconductor serial store — so-called

solid state disk — costs no more than semiconductor main memory

but can be programmed and controlled for paging and lookahead

.

Access time can be very short compared to magnetic media. It

depends on the semiconductor devices and cable lengths used but

typically can be less than one microsecond multiplied by the bit

length of the data stream sector. Very short latency can thus be

obtained. These systems cost less with faster performance than

drum buffer storage and are now near $6,000 per megabyte. Costs

will decrease further with the lower RAM prices.

2.2.3.5 Other Storage Technologies

Research work continues on other technologies that may eventually

yield cost-effective alternatives for information storage.

Several areas receive attention, but to date no technically

feasible and/or economically viable products are in sight.

Efforts continue to develop large capacity storage capability

through holographic interference patterns, notably in France,

Germany, and the United Kingdom. Realization of a workable

system with the hoped-for storage density 10,000 times that of

magnetic media appears to be held off by the lack of an

appropriate substance having satisfactory reliability in

repeated write/read/erase processes.

Other efforts explore low-voltage electrophotographic materials.

Such materials, in crystalline form, are considered for their

potential to maintain a very high charge density, allowing for

the storage of a great amount of information. Based on the

number of crystallites and the electron levels per crystallite,

theoretical information capacity projections made are in the

order of one trillion bits/cm squared.

Work is also continuing on the development of megabit memories

using wafer-scale integration (WSI), based on single unbroken

four or five inch metal-nitr ide-ox ide- semiconductor (MNOS)

wafers. Adaptive WSI, integrating storage with processing in an

array structure on a single wafer, is expected to combine speed

with reliability, nonvolatil ity , and low heat dissipation. While

efforts in this direction have been exerted for several years,

there is no indication that a commercial product is near. However, for memory, this concept has been successfully used in the

laboratory to build very large stores for use as character generators for Kanji characters and digital facsimile image

processing.

45
2,2,4 Mass Storage Technologies

2.2.4.1 Magnetic Disks

Magnetic disk storage devices continue to show improvements in

capacity and cost, as the technologies advance in the read/write

head designs and arrangements, and in the recording surface

s tr ucture

.

Since the arrival of sealed storage modules with their internal

filtering devices, dust particles have been removed to a high

degree and reliability has been increased considerably. This

cleaner environment, together with the replacement of the

previously used ferrite magnetic head technology with thin film

heads of special aerodynamic design, has allowed heads to be

spaced much closer to the surface (in the order of 20

microinches) allowing higher density of recording and reduced

track width. As a result, the linear recording density of about

15,000 bits per inch used in some recently announced products and

the increased track density result in an area density of

approximately 11 million bits per square inch, more than double

that provided in predecessor products, and permitting a reduction

in the cost to the user by one half, to 0.4 millicent per bit.

The largest capacity disk drive now available combines two sealed

head/disk assemblies of 1.26 gigabytes each, for a total of 2.52

gigabytes per drive. As a result of its increased linear

recording density, it has a data transfer rate of three megabytes

per second. Using two sets of actuators in each head/disk

assembly effectively cuts the average seek time in half to 16

mil 1 iseconds

.

Slightly lower levels of technology have been applied to small

disk drives for small computers and office products. Reduction

of disk size (for rigid mini-disks to 5 1/4 inch diameter with 3

1/2 inch diameter recently offered) , as well as a recent 50

percent reduction in the height of drive mechanisms has led to an

increasing use of mini-disk systems. This trend will continue as

improvements in the recording density continue and the cost of

devices decreases.

Flexible (or "floppy") disks are also in widespread use for both

information storage and information transfer. Low-performance,

flexible-disk drives for the standard 5-1/4" disks are very

inexpensive and the more recent 3" disk drives may do even

better. The technology of flexible disks is behind that of rigid

disks, but is improving. [STAFF COMMENT 1]

Thin film heads and thin film media should provide densities of

about 25,000 bits per inch and 2,000 tracks per inch in

product ion- run high end fixed disks in 1987. The resulting

density of 50 million bits per square inch could rise to 180

million bits per square inch in 1992, by a combination of thin

film heads, thin film media, and vertical recording.

46
In vertical recording, the magnetized domains are stacked

perpendicular to the surface of the substrate (rather than

horizontally, as is the case in the present mode) . Vertical

recording at 100,000 bits per inch density has already been

demonstrated in the laboratory and ultimate linear densities of

over 400,000 bits per inch are considered possible.

While uncertainties remain about the degree and timing of these

improvements, we expect that continuing improvements could lead

to densities of 400 million bits per square inch in 1997. To

achieve these results, the electromechanical assemblies will

require considerable refinement since head-to-medium clearances

and track positioning accuracies will become increasingly difficult to achieve and to maintain and will finally become limiting,

at least in present configurations.

The above refinements in heads, media, and mechanics will lead to

higher cost drives but the cost per bit stored falls, nevertheless, because of the great increase in storage density. Our cost

forecasts are shown in table 2.1.

In conclusion, except for relatively small applications where

semiconductor or magnetic bubble technology will be used, moving

head disk storage systems will continue to offer a significant

cost advantage over other storage technologies throughout the

1982-1997 time period. However, this cost advantage will often be

partly offset by the use of the buffered approach to reduce

effective access time. Storage densities will increase more than

tenfold to provide capacities in the tens of gigabytes per drive.

2.2.4.2 Magnetic Tape

Magnetic tape, the earliest secondary data storage medium, lost

importance as the magnetic disk became available. The disk's

better accessibility of data and related improvement in sorting

ability over the serial operating mode of the magnetic tape

relegated the tape to a medium for archival storage.

Increased recording densities on magnetic tape, from 800 bpi to

1600 bpi and 6250 bpi, combined with higher tape transport speed

(up to 200 inches/sec) provided data rates usable for data dumps

of large disk files. The continuing need for higher capacity and

data transfer rates to satisfy backup requirements of emerging

new disk storage products is expected to be satisfied by future

magnetic tape systems. We expect solutions to this need to come

from two directions: first, increases in linear recording

density similar to that on magnetic disk devices; second, increased width of the magnetic tape to dimensions wider than the

customary 1/2 inch. Both actions would serve to provide the data

rates required for archival backup of information maintained on

the new disk systems.

In any case, the technology is at hand for high density

recording. Tape media may change to smaller and oriented

particulates, and higher coercive materials. Vertical recording

47
may also be used with possible lineal densities in excess of

100,000 bits per inch. Heads, to allow the very high densities,

will go to thin film design.

Other efforts to develop ultra-high density recording

capabilities include a microgap head arrangement. In conjunction

with chromium-oxide tape, it is reported to have permitted

recording densities of 120,000 bits/inch. Extremely high

densities of recording are possible with very small record gaps

and unoriented tapes with small particles. Recording densities

of 40 million bits/square inch at error rates of 10 to the minus

12 power to 10 to the minus 15 power appear practicable.

To improve performance and reliability and to reduce costs,

microprocessors are used to control the rate of change of tape

drive motor current and to reduce starting current in order to

attain accurate tape speed control. This is translated into very

low access times while meeting velocity standards. As a result,

prices for tape drives applying improved versions of existing

technology are likely to remain at existing levels, resulting in

an effective two- to four-fold price-performance improvement per

bit stored.

As the standard reels of such tape have several orders of

magnitude more capacity than the cartridges used with some mass

storage systems, and as the capacities of disk drives (including

video discs — see below) become very large, we see the

car tr idge- type mass storage systems being phased out for most

applications.

Quarter-inch magnetic tape cassettes continue to hold their

position as backup media to the smaller fixed disk systems in the

small business system, minicomputer, and text processor

environments, but their usage growth may be affected by the

increasing price-performance and physical size reduction of minidisk units.

Optical recording tape as reported under development at Drexler

Technology, may become a new alternative if it can realize its

expected capacity of 1.6 trillion bits per 2,400 foot reel, 1,000

times that of present high density magnetic tapes,

2.2.4.3 Video Disc

The video disc*, developed for and initially applied to the

recording and replay of TV programs, movies, and other visual

information in the entertainment and training fields, is receiv-

*Ed. note: The vocabulary and spelling used in this field is

still in flux. In this report, the term "video disc" is used in

the broadest sense, denoting general information storage

technology and is not limited to home entertainment technology.

48
ing increasing attention in the data processing/information

handling areas for its large storage capacity, small size, and

relatively low cost.

In the form of a 12" removable plastic disc, it can be encoded by

a laser beam which "burns" small pits, each representing a bit of

information, along a continuous groove. It is able to store a 30

minute TV program (about 54,000 color TV frames) or approximately

100,000 pages of 8 1/2" x 11" black and white documents. The

potential digital image storage capacity by single or dual sided

recording methods presently is in the one to 10 gigabyte range.

[STAFF COMMENT 2]

With an estimated mass production cost of prerecorded video discs

at the $10 level, competition for the entertainment/educational

market is intense among RCA, Philips, MCA, Magnavox, Sony, and

others, with playback equipment prices down to the $300-$l,000

level

.

Parallel to this, RCA, Philips, Toshiba, IBM, STC, CDC, and

others are working to apply this technology to the field of

digital information storage. Recording the scanned image of a document in the form of a bit-stream and reconstructing it for

replay, they could serve as electronic document filing systems,

with initial cost projections in the $20 , 00-$50 , 000 range.

Maturing of these products and low prices will open the way to

many uses in the office environment. A novel approach is already

being taken by several personal computer and personal computer

accessory vendors who are supplying systems by which personal

computers can be converted to, and can control commercial video

disc players for educational, advertising, and training markets.

These types of systems are expected to proliferate over the next

several years.

The process of recording information by burning pits into the

surface of the video disc with a laser beam and the retrieval of

such information, is subject to a raw error rate (in the range of

10 to the minus 5 power to 10 to the minus 8 power) which is

several orders of magnitude higher than the error rate

experienced with presently used magnetic storage devices. While

this error rate may be acceptable for the recording and retrieval

of digitally stored images due to the redundancies inherent in

such images, it is generally not acceptable for the recording and

retrieval of data. Methods for the reduction or compensation of

the existing raw error rate under consideration generally lead to

a significant trade off reduction of usable storage capacity. As

a result, the estimated available capacity of video discs for the

storage of data is much less than the capacity applicable to

image storage.

For the laser hole-burning approach, conservative estimates for

the storage of digital data expect a capacity of 500 megabytes to

one gigabyte for a 12" disc. With the added complexity of the

error control logic and indexing in the digital data environment,

the cost estimates for single drive systems vary between $25,000

49
and $120,000. While Toshiba has announced the availability of an

initial product, volume availability and acceptance still appears

to be three to five years away.

With the anticipated price for a recordable hole-burning type

video disc of $150, multi-disc arrangements for shelf storage in

"jukebox" format could permit a storage capacity of 10 trillion

bits per system at a potential cost of ,003 millicent per bit.

Access times are likely to range from about 0.1 second to a single disc to about 3 seconds to a "jukebox" of multiple discs.

Little effort is seen to reduce access times since the video disc

will be used in a storage mode; cost, capacity, and reliability

will be the critical variables.

Driven by the need to improve reliability and to increase

capacity, the search for ways to enhance electro-optical storage

capabilities continues. A new recording technique developed by

3M takes the approach of using a laser beam to heat a base

material on the disc and create bubbles or bumps in the surface

covering material. Reportedly this playback system can more

readily differentiate a blister than other techniques can

distinguish a hole in a flat surface.

Another process of considerable promise is reported under

development at the IBM research laboratories in San Jose. Called

frequency domain storage or photochemical hole burning, it has

the potential of storing many bits of information in a single

spatial spot. To achieve this effect, a very low temperature

environment is required.

Efforts are also directed to determine the potential of

electrophotographic material for high density recording of

digital information.

There are also efforts underway to develop technologies which

provide erasable optical storage media. One of them has resulted

in the development of a prototype disc by Japan Broadcasting Corporation. Using the thermomagnetic characteristics of a gadolinium-cobalt thin film, it is reported to permit selective erasure

as well as erasure of the whole disc by a strong magnetic head.

No firm data on the storage life of video disc storage exists as

yet. Conservative projections, in view of unanswered questions

of the possible vulnerability of protected recorded surfaces,

anticipate a two-year minimum storage life. It is expected that

it will become possible to extend the storage life of information

recorded on video discs to ten years and more.

In view of the efforts still required to overcome the

shortcomings of the video discs for data recording, it is not

likely that they will play a major role in this field until the

second half of the 1980 's. The role of magnetic devices for the

mass storage of data will remain predominant in the near term.

Beyond the middle of the decade, however, new technologies now

50
under development hold the promise of maturing to the application

level and may supersede present mass storage technologies with

dramatic effects.

At the present stage of development, video discs appear most

attractive for their potential as electronic media for digitized

text or image information, where the intrinsic error rate may be

acceptable, and the high density and low price are especially

important. [STAFF COMMENT 3]

2.2.5 Summary of Storage Component Performance and Cost

Since a variety of storage technologies will be used in

information processing systems and the trade-offs between them

will vary with time, to clarify the situation we present the

following summary of the forecasts presented earlier.

Table 2.1 summarizes our forecasts of the cost per bit of the 10

major storage technologies presented earlier over the period

1982-1997. All are converted to the same measure, purchase cost

to the user. (This conversion involves markups over manufacturing cost of about four times depending on expectations of system

size, manufacturing technology, etc. Note that figures 2.10 and

2.11 show costs from the device manufacturer.)

TABLE 2.1

COST COMPARISONS OF STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

(user cost in millicents per bit)

Type 1982 198> 1992 1997

Randont Access

Fast. Semiconductor (RAM) 300 70-100 20-40 5-10

Medium Speed Semicond. (RAM) 100 20-30 7-12 1.5-3

Slow Semiconductor (RAM) ' 25 7-10 2-4 0.5-1

Fixed, Non-Volatile Semiconductor (ROM) 20 5-7 1.5-3 0.5-1

Fuze. Non-Volatile Semiconductor (PROM) 300 50-100 10-30 2-5

Rewritable. Non-Volatile Semic. (EEPROM) 300 50-70 10-20 3-5

Serial Access

Serial Semiconductor 75 10-15 2-4 0.3-0.5

Bubble 100 20-30 5-10 3-5

Magnetic Disk 0.4 0. 12 0.03-0.06 0.01-0.03

Video Disc 0.05-0.1 0.01-0.02 0.001-0.003

Table 2.2 summarizes our estimates of access time (complete read

cycle) in a corresponding manner. As the tables make clear, the

improvement potentials for semiconductor memory are so great

that, given the large investments in existing technology, it will

continue to dominate all high-speed memory applications.

Semiconductor technology also offers a wide range of speed-cost

51
alternatives. These technologies will continue to be used in

user- transparent hierarchies, as they are now.

TABLE 2.2

AVERAGE ACCESS TIMES OF STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

Type 1982 1987 1992 1997

Randcxr* Access

Fast Semiconductor (RAM)- 12 nsec 8 nsec 5 nsec 4 nsec Medium Speed Semicond.

( RAM) 60 nsec 40 nsec 25 nsec 15 nsec Slow Semicond. (RAM) 250 nsec 150 nsec 80 nsec 60 nsec

Fixed, Non-Volatile Semic.

( ROM) 350 nsec 150 nsec 80 nsec 60 nsec

Fuze, Non-Volatile Semic.

( PROM) 70 nsec 50 nsec 30 nsec 20 nsec

Rewritable, Non-Volatile

Semic. (EEPROM) 250 nsec 150 nsec 80 nsec 60 nsec

Serial Access (Latency)

Serial Semiconductor 0.4 msec 0.25 msec 0.15 msec 0. 1 msec

Bubble 2 msec 1 msec 0.7 msec 0.5 msec Magnetic 25 msec 20 msec 15 msec 10 msec Video Disc 0.1-3 sec 0.B5-3 sec 0.02-2 sec

Storage capacity (the third major variable besides cost and

access time) is not shown in the tables because most storage

systems are highly modular and available in a wide range of

capacities

.

Most semiconductors are volatile, which is not necessarily a disadvantage in most computer systems where magnetic storage

backup and virtual memory-file techniques are generally used.

However, in smaller devices (terminals, portable, and desk-top

systems) magnetic bubble technology may be preferred because it

is non- volat i le , because its slower access time will usually be

acceptable, and because for small systems of a few million bytes,

its size, power consumption, and overall cost may make it

superior to a semiconductor-magnetic hierarchy.

Magnetic disks are expected to retain their cost per bit

advantage over solid-state alternatives throughout the period,

though their access times will not improve much. They will,

therefore, continue to be used for large files.

As discussed more fully in section 2.1 buffered disks are likely

to be applied in large systems with large files and high

activity. Using a faster technology (perhaps semiconductor or

bubble) as a buffer, most of the cost advantage of the disk can

52
be retained while a reference rate of 1,000-1,500 per second is

supported. The cost and average access time of buffered disk

systems are determined by a trade-off between buffer size and

disk size.

These tables do not depict the fact that logic and storage

components will increasingly be combined on ever-larger

semiconductor chips that will make new processor organizations

and applications possible. Such combinations, discussed more

fully earlier, may have more impact on data processing users than

the simple improvements in price-performance summarized here.

The pace of improvement of semiconductor manufacturing is very

rapid. The above forecasts are considered conservative and it is

possible that the forecasted cost and complexity levels may be

achieved at significantly earlier dates.

2.3 INPUT/OUTPUT TECHNOLOGIES

Since the technologies discussed in this section evolve

relatively slowly and at varying rates, the discussion is not

divided into five-year periods. However, dates of expected first

availability of commercial products are shown where possible.

2.3.1 Status and Trends

Input technologies have changed very slowly and not much change

is anticipated for the next five years or so. The dominant mode

remains the operator keying in the information, with the keyboard

of the terminal replacing the previous card keypunching process.

Optical character recognition effectively remains limited to

discrete characters with stylized shapes; voice recognition

similarly has been applied effectively only to individual word

recognition in a small vocabulary environment. Most present

efforts are directed at improving performance of existing

vocabulary levels and reducing cost. Major vocabulary expansion

and continuous speech recognition remain difficult.

Improved keyboards are appearing in which numerical key fields

and special control keys (e.g., cursor control) complement the

traditional alphanumeric key arrangement. These increase

productivity and operator comfort.

As a new variant to the touch-entry process, touch screen

capabilities are being provided, facilitating the man-machine

interface with minimum training requirements.

Voice and image signals are increasingly being digitized into

bit-streams and intermixed with encoded text and data. The

digitized speech and imagery cannot be recognized and processed

like the encoded material but it can share the same

communications, storage, and display resources. This intermixing

of bit-stream and encoded information is likely to improve the

cost-effectiveness of office information systems.

53
In the field of output, innovation and change occur at an accelerating pace. Visual displays with color options and greater

resolution have become available. Flat-panel displays are coming

into use in situations where their convenience of shape and

weight offset their cost and resolution disadvantages. Voice

output has gained in vocabulary range and cost effectiveness as

semiconductor-based synthesizers enter the market. Hard-copy

output capability has broadened in scope and quality with the

application of laser beam, fiber optic, and magnetic technologies

to the xerographic process of image formation. Matrix formation

of characters and images has permitted low cost output creation

for new office or home applications, using either non-impact or

impact means of creating the image.

Simplified designs have emerged which reduce the cost of hardcopy output devices, especially at the low-speed end. They offer

good quality of copy and can be expected to offer color

capabil i ties

.

2,3,2 Display Technology

The display field continues to be dominated by the cathode ray

tube (CRT) . Efforts to compete against or complement the CRT

center are attempts to develop acceptable flat-panel displays at

competitive prices.

While basic technology for large flat-panel plasma displays has

been around for some time, high cost (typically $7 per square

inch of screen) , bulky driver electronics, and limited color

capability have restricted their usage to small- to medium-size

displays with up to 500 character capacity. Special panels with

high resolution have been developed, such as 8.5-inch square

displays with 512 x 512 pixels, and 12-inch square displays with

1,024 X 1,024 pixels. Larger panels (40 x 25 inches with a resolution of 2,500 pixels per square inch) are available, but

they cost in the range of $50,000 to $80,000, depending on the

quantity. The production of large size flat-panel displays at

acceptable cost depends on the progress of thick-film and thinfilm technology.

Cathode ray tubes are expected to maintain their dominance in the

display field for some time. With resolution of 512 x 512

elements and tube sizes ranging from 12" to 30", the cost of

standard tubes during the next few years is expected to be in the

$50 to $100 range. Color options and high resolution (to 7,000 x 7,000 elements) will lead to special tube prices in the $1,500 to

$2,000 range by 1985.

Traditional manufacturers will continue to improve CRTs in the

face of impending challenges from flat-panel display

technologies. Large flat-panel CRTs may be a reality toward the

end of the eighties.

Color display CRTs have increasingly come into use in

applications such as computer system status, management

54
Color display CRTs have increasingly come into use in

applications such as computer system status, management

information systems, and process control, where color facilitates

the separation of the information displayed into content

categor ies

.

Another means of separating displayed information according to

content is through multiple bit-planes (e.g., a background map or form with one or more levels of varying information in the foreground, usually in a contrasting color). Two bit-planes are

generally available in terminals used for real-time situation

display and more can be obtained. Electronics cost is the limiting factor: as it declines, display terminals with as many as

four bit-planes will become available at reasonable prices by

1986.

The growing interest in graphic display for computer-aided design

and animation has led to an increasing interest in the creation

of three-dimensional perspective images, mostly through improvements in software for providing shading, etc. However, progress

toward true three-dimensional displays (where a different image

is provided for each eye) is much slower. Considerable research

and development work on this subject is being carried out in

Japan but the complexity involved and the volume of information

required in the recording, storage, transmission, and reproduction of three-dimensional images has, to date, not permitted

practical solutions. While no breakthrough appears likely in the

near term, the market potential for three-dimensional imaging

will lead to further development efforts and possible products in

the 1990's.

Large area (8 x 10 square inches or larger) flat-panel displays

based on technologies such as electroluminescence, liquid

crystal, electrochromic , etc. (in addition to plasma panels

previously described) will be commercially available before 1987

at prices in the $200 to $300 range. CRT technology may lose its

position in the less- than-2 , 000 character display market. Toward

the end of the eighties and into the nineties, flat-panel

displays are likely to come into general use in wall television

sets, telecommunication terminals, and home entertainment

terminals. Greater acceptability and improved performance will

increase the use of flat-panel displays in all areas.

2,3.3 Hard-copy Output Technology

Impact printers have improved significantly in recent years,

particularly at the low-speed, low-price end of the spectrum.

Electronics has been substituted for mechanical controls, lightweight plastic parts have been substituted for metal, and matrix

character production has been exploited. Further improvements in

print quality, cost, and color capability are expected, mostly in

low-speed, low-cost printers. However, new developments are

occurring mostly in the various non- impact technologies which are

discussed below.

55
2.3.3.1 Xerographic Technology

To date, xerographic technology has been applied at the high- and

med ium- speed ranges of the printing spectrum.

At the high end, laser pr int ing/ imag ing systems costing several

hundred thousand dollars each are able to produce up to 10,000

sheets of output hard copy hourly and to feed, cut, and collate

the stream of pages produced.

As more cost-effective technologies come into use, the price of

these systems continues to drop considerably. Semiconductor

lasers replace gas lasers and simplified beam deflection

techniques like Xerox' Hologon supersede the rotating mirror.

The Xerox 2700 system, directed at the office environment, was

announced with a price below $20,000; the trend continues.

Another image-output approach is taken in a product recently

announced by Delphax Systems. It offers a lower-cost alternative

to laser xerography by an ion-deposition imaging process. The

Delphax 2460 operates at 60 pages per minute with an expected

end-user cost at the $30,000 level.

As the cost of hardcopy output image forming stations continues

to decline, it becomes economically feasible to combine several

in one unit, providing multicolor capabilities. Color non- impact

printers are likely to be in increasing demand to complement the

increasing use of color displays and be generally available by

1987.

2.3.3.2 Ink-Jet Technology

The technology of using a fine stream of ink droplets to create

alphanumeric or image output has been applied to several

commercial products, at both ends of the speed spectrum. At the

low end, modification of the Siemens PT-80 ink-jet printer by

Printa Color and ACT provide color printing models at prices

below $10,000.

At the other end of the spectrum, high-speed ink- jet customized

printers are used for special jobs such as address label

printing. One such printer produces up to 80,000 limited width

address lines per minute. For other special applications such as

geographical or medical plotting, special ink-jet control remains

complex and the related cost and operational problems continue to

limit its application but high-speed systems will continue to

improve

.

2.3.3.3 Other Technologies

Character generation by a magnetic process has been pursued by

several companies, with the intent to provide line printing

capabilities of 6,000 to 8,000 1pm. To date, however, no product

of acceptable quality and reliability has appeared.

56
A novel approach to improved print/image quality in matrix based

output systems uses a slight repositioning of the image-creating

head and repeated character or image formation runs. The slight

overlapping provides improved resolution. While this occurs at a reduction in output speed, single-pass output creation at full

system speed can serve many applications (such as internal

reports or drafts) where speed takes precedence over output

quality, followed by later high-quality runs at slower speed.

Another novel approach to low-cost color output is followed in

the Sony Mavigraph printer, intended for the creation of color

prints for Sony's electronic Mavica camera. This printer uses a thermal print head, whose tiny pins in successive passes over

yellow, cyan, magenta and black carrier sheets transfer the dye

to the paper and blend it to form a hard copy color image.

Another field of high-speed non- impact output imaging is the

creation of computer output micro- images , with devices capable of

recording up to 130 output pages per minute in micro- image form.

Micro- image output is particularly useful in the growing field of

computer-assisted design and image processing in general. It

also works well with off-line film-based information retrieval

and photocomposition systems. This technology is likely to be

complemented by computer output video disc technology which would

make possible new forms of information dissemination.

Non-impact printing is also well adapted to the production of

computer- readable media using either special fonts or bar codes.

These can be applied both to documents and to objects;

applications are likely to expand steadily. [STAFF COMMENT 4]

2.3.3.4 Forecast

The non- impact technologies will continue to improve steadily in

resolution and cost throughout our forecast period. None are

likely to be lower in unit cost than impact printers, however.

The result will be that at all price levels users will be offered

increasing options of resolution, speed, graphics, and color.

Few users will be paying less for printers than they do now; most

will instead be evolving their information systems to take

advantage of the new printers' capabilities to provide more

customized and management-oriented images, and to support

increasingly versatile office systems.

2,3.4 Image Recognition

Success in image recognition to date has been limited to

constrained applications. Little progress has been made in the

development of generalized systems capable of a wide range of

variations. Successful applications include optical character

recognition of typewritten or printed fonts. Universal Product

Code, and handwritten characters produced in conformance with

specific rules. Commercial applications implemented include

reading of utility turn-around billing forms, bank check reading.

57
and retail check-out counter product code reading. These

applications are becoming more widespread as the cost of the

reading devices decline.

Patterns with greater degrees of freedom, higher content

complexity, and noise factors continue to present such problems

that progress in generalized image recognition have been very

slow. Limitations both in processing power available and in the

resol vabil i ty of ambiguities have hampered progress.

Hybrid systems combining computer throughput power with human

analysis capabilities have had some degree of success, as

exemplified in the fingerprint recognition area. In most

fingerprint identification systems, fingerprint images are

scanned; ridges, ridge endings, and bifurcations are detected,

and their relative positions and orientations recorded. This

information is used to match a search fingerprint against a file.

A very small list of candidates is identified and a human

performs the final identification.

Further improvements of image recognition systems will depend

less on the increase of processing power than on the development

of analytical software able to apply classification criteria via

decision- tree algorithms. Progress in these procedures,

utilizing increasing capacity and cost effectiveness of enhanced

storage technology, is likely to be applied to interactive

schemes with two levels of capability:

a screening facility, that will alert an operator

to a possible occurrence of an interesting pattern,

and

a manipulative capability, as mentioned above, to

assist the human decision.

Fully automatic image processing is not expected to' be possible

any time in our forecast period except for image sets

predesigned to facilitate recognition (e.g.. Optical Character

Recognition (OCR) character sets). However, knowledge-based

systems with which human interaction is necessary only for final

and subtle decisions may be in use in the 1990 's.

2.3.5 Voice Recognition

2,3.5.1 Discrete Words and Phrases

The most successful voice recognition systems to date are those

that deal with discrete words, a small vocabulary and one or a few persons. Systems capable of handling from 16 to a few

hundred discrete words are readily available. Systems costing

from $30,000 to $75,000 may also incorporate host processors that

may also perform other functions in addition to speech

recognition (typically speech synthesis in man-machine dialog).

These larger systems also incorporate connected word and/or

speaker independent recognition capabilities. Lower cost

58
systems, typically at the $2,500 price level for a broad-level

recognition product, provide slightly inferior recognition performance with more severe constraints on the degree to which the

words are spoken as discrete (unconnected) utterances, and with

less sophisticated algorithmic methods to handle speaker idiosyncracies and varying background noise conditions. Neither

recognition accuracy nor vocabulary size are directly correlated

with price; they are indirectly related along with a large number

of other features. "Recognition accuracy" per se is a meaningless term in the absence of standardized databases and guidelines and procedures for performance assessment. Most manufacturers, trying to expand the market for word recognition

systems, presently focus on improvement of recognition rates in

low-cost systems with small vocabularies, using increasingly

cost-effective components.

The recognition of longer patterns, as they are found in phrases

made up of several words, requires increased storage capacity for

the voice patterns to be compared and calls for greater

processing power to perform the analytical operations. One

problem encountered in the attempt to develop systems capable of

recognizing connected speech is the difficulty of determining

where one word ends and the next begins. This problem is

complicated by the variability of the acoustic characteristics of

sounds and words in connected speech. It has been greatly

assisted by use of dynamic time warping algorithms. The use of

clustering methods in template formation has provided procedures

to accommodate speaker independent input for larger vocabularies

without severely degraded performance, while accommodating the

variability in the acoustic characteristics of sounds and words

in connected speech. Recent work at Bell Laboratories (J.

Acoust, Soc, Am, 72 (2), 390-396, August 1982) as well as

elsewhere has demonstrated speaker- independent recognition

accuracies for 129 word vocabularies that are comparable to those

obtained on the same vocabularies with speaker trained reference

patterns

.

The segmentation of continuous speech into discrete, phonetically

significant intervals and the matching of these intervals with

stored phonemes requires carefully constructed similarity

measures and extensive tree search algorithms. Connected speech

recognition systems must be able to handle not only

characteristics of sounds and variations in pronunciations (as

the word recognition systems do for discrete words) , but also the

grammatical structure of the language. Even with simple

vocabularies of less than 250 words and using large computer

systems executing millions of instructions per second of speech,

the achievable accuracy rates are much lower than those of

discrete word recognition systems. Certain procedures such as

dynamic time alignment and statistical clustering offer promising

ways of dealing with the connected speech and speaker variability

issues, and of reducing processing requirements. Efforts in this

direction continue, but the power of available resources sets

limits even in this relatively simple environment.

59
We expect that efforts to recognize strings of words will show

increasing success in environments which permit limitation of the

permutations that must be covered by the analysis through limitation of the choices of words at specific points in the strings.

The NEC DP-100 system is an example of a system operating

successfully within the constraints of limited vocabulary, tuned

to a specific speaker and a limited size string of words. By

applying two matching steps, one for each word and one for an

entire group of words, it allows the recognition of a continuous

string of up to five words out of a vocabulary of 100 words

spoken by a speaker whose pattern of speech for each of these

words has been prestored. Such a system might be termed a "command recognition system". Considering the processing power

needed to perform the analysis, it is expected that such systems

will not be economically justifiable for the commercial environment until the next generation of component technology can be

applied. Beyond 1985, command recognition systems for entering

operating instructions to computer-based devices, as well as for

highly restricted voice data entry applications, may become

practical. [STAFF COMMENTS 5 and 6]

2,3.5.2 Continuous Unrestricted Speech

The most complex level, that of recognizing continuous

unrestricted speech, requires not only definition of the

structure of an utterance but also comprehension of specific

meanings which depend on knowledge of context and semantics. The

processing power of present computers is several orders of

magnitude lower than necessary to deal with the problem in real

time and it remains doubtful that even with availability of

sufficient processing power the problem may be solved in its

entirety. Unconstrained continuous speech recognition systems

are not expected during this decade and remain in doubt even for

the next decade. When they appear, they will probably be

available first for the Japanese language which is well adapted

to phonetic feature- based recognition algorithms. [STAFF COMMENT

7]

2,3,6 Voice Synthesis

With the continuing rapid advance of semiconductor circuit

technology, voice output systems have made considerable progress.

Replacing the need to store output voice vocabularies with the

capability of creating the individual sound elements of speech

resulted in a reduction of the complexity and cost of voice

output systems. Voice synthesizer chips are already used in many

low-priced products.

Replacing vocabularies of stored voice with semiconductor voice

synthesizers contributed to the reduction in cost of systems from

the hundred thousand dollar level to several thousands (and down

below $20 at the component chip level) . With rising interest in

voice output at the new price level, application of voice

synthesis in control and warning systems is expected to grow.

Applications in industrial process control and warning, home

60
appliance operations monitoring, and even computer assisted

training routines are under consideration. Chip prices are

expected to decrease further to the single digit dollar level

soon. We expect that these chips, complemented by the

implementation of advanced algorithms for producing well- intoned

continuous synthetic speech, will find considerable usage in

quality answer-back systems costing at most several hundred

dollars each. [STAFF COMMENT 8]

Voice synthesis, then, will be generally available as a computer

output medium by 1985. Since visual display is generally

preferable for most purposes, however, voice output for computer

systems will ordinarily play a secondary role (e.g., warning of

exceptional conditions)

.

Voice synthesis appears promising for use both as a means of

providing informative audible prompt and system status messages

and as a means of facilitating voice mail systems. The classic

trade-offs in system design will continue to be flexibility,

intelligibility, and storage requirements.

Requirements for systems that are sufficiently compatible with

one another to permit the exchange of software, data, and/or

voice messages may require the evolution of standardized

procedures for phonemic and bandwidth compressed synthetic

speech

.

Voice mail systems, capable of storing and forwarding voice

messages (without any recognition process involved) , have been

announced by IBM, Wang, and several others. While their

acceptance is still limited due to the extensive storage requirement (about 250,000 bytes per minute of speech) , the application

of data compression algorithms and the dropping cost of magnetic

disk storage may lead to increasing use of voice mail in office

systems in the latter part of the decade.

2.4 SOFTWARE

Software has evolved more slowly than hardware, inhibiting

potential market growth. Nevertheless, evolution has been

occurring. Figure 2.12 depicts a trend which we believe has been

slowly affecting all types of software. Over time, the three

major classes of software have been undergoing an evolution from

"home grown" systems to vendor-produced systems that can be

adapted with increasing ease to varied user needs. In the increasingly likely event that a vendor-produced product can be

adapted to an organization's needs, this evolution permits users

to obtain increased value per dollar of software investment.

This trend to adaptable vendor-provided software has led to the

largest improvement in programmer productivity of any of the

software technological trends over the past ten years. Increased

use of vendor-supplied software permits internal programming

61
Self Adaptive

Software

1950 I960 1970 1980

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.

FIGURE 2.12 SOFTWARE EVOLUTION

62
staffs to concentrate their efforts on the diminishing proportion

of application programs which must be specifically tailored for

their individual organizations.

In the following paragraphs we separately discuss the trends in

the three main software categories of the forecast period.

2,4,1 Operating Systems

2.4.1.1 State-of-the-Art

At the present time, the operating systems produced by the major

computer manufacturers are undergoing a long-term, gradual

transition from completely bundled, easily identified, integrated

collections of software to almost completely unbundled, very

modular, software and microcode- implemented sets of elementary

functions whose major purpose is to allocate and control

resources on a millisecond-by-millisecond basis. Since the users

and their application software are far more sensitive to changes

in the operating system than they are to changes in the hardware,

this transition is by necessity a very long and gradual one where

major discontinuities or conversions are avoided whenever

possible

.

At the present time, we are only part-way through this process

which is expected to last through the early to mid-1990 's. Today' s operating systems still have many clearly definable

functions above and beyond basic resource management. However,

each announcement of a new operating system release generally

includes a reduction of the scope of the operating system functions and incorporation of the functions deleted from the

operating system into one or more of the associated software

systems, such as the database management system, the job entry

and sequencing systems (such as IBM's JES), and the various

telecommunications monitors.

Most manufacturers are charging for at least part of their

operating system software and are gradually increasing the

charges and the portion of software for which a charge is made

once or twice a year. Microcode assists have started to appear

primarily as throughput enhancement mechanisms. Although many of

these assists are, at present, not required in order to operate

the system, a trend towards making the assists a prerequisite for

higher level software is beginning.

The operating system interfaces are beginning to disappear from

the user's view, being replaced by easier- to-use , more logical

interfaces in the higher level support software systems.

Security is becoming a more important issue for many of the

manufacturers, some of whom offer to repair, at no cost, any

breach in the operating system security mechanisms found by the

users during normal use.

63
For smaller minicomputer and small business systems the trend is

somewhat different. Ease of use is judged more important than a wide variety of options; therefore, integral, semi-automatic

operating system packages are being developed.

Early microcomputer-based systems (MBS) used software control

systems which were too small to be considered operating systems.

These control systems were generally classified as monitors.

This class of system is undergoing a rapid evolution. For 8-bit

MBS ' s there are several manufacturer-specific systems as well as

a single system, CP/M, which is used by most of the smaller

manufacturers and offered by the larger manufacturers as an

option. This situation is not expected to change in the

foreseeable future.

There is intense competition among the suppliers of the newly

emerging 16-bit MBS ' s to develop a generally accepted de facto

standard monitor. The leading candidates are evolved versions of

CP/M (MP/M, CP/M-86, etc.) and versions of the UNIX operating

system (UNIX, XENIX, etc.). In addition, a language-specific

monitor (Pascal) is also being used as a secondary standard for

many systems.

We forecast that all of the systems mentioned above will survive

throughout the forecast period. Each one will find a specific

market niche in which it is preferred and will maintain a slow

evolution towards operating system capabilities for the foreseeable future. This subject is discussed further in section 4.2.

2.4.1.2 1982-1987

Almost all the manufacturers will be attempting to obtain more

revenue from their operating systems than they currently do.

Those whose operating systems are now in the public domain will

use various mechanisms such as renaming, redistributing the

functions, rewriting major sections, and implementing microcode

to insure that almost all customers will have to pay some license

charges for their operating systems. Also, in preparation for

the more modular machines of the future, the manufacturers will

continue to reduce the functionality of the basic operating

system. These functions will be taken over by such systems as

storage hierarchy management software systems, database

management software systems, communications management software

systems, and job entry and scheduling software systems. Such

software systems will also be separately priced and be

sufficiently interrelated that most users will be required to

purchase a large number of the systems.

By the mid-1980 's, 30 percent to 50 percent of most operating

systems will be implemented in some form of microcode, either

plug-in ROM modules for smaller machines or electrically

alterable control storage for the larger machines. Large virtual

address spaces will continue to be supported and, in many cases,

multiple address space capability will be required in the

64
operating system to facilitate testing of new system and

application software and conversion of older systems.

2.4.1.3 1987-1992

The trends discussed in the previous section will continue to

maturity.

Except for those few users still programming in assembly

language, all of the operating systems' visible interfaces will

have been subsumed by the higher levels of system software such

as the job scheduling systems, language compilers, database

management systems, query languages, etc.

The operating system itself will have been reduced to its basic

millisecond-to-millisecond resource management functions as well

as basic error detection, correction, and recovery functions.

Additional resources beyond those currently envisioned will have

to be managed. Microcode supporting the database management

systems and the code generated by the various compilers will be

dynamically moved in and out of the larger processors under the

control of the basic operating system. In addition, the handling

of messages on the high-speed bus which connects the various

parts of the modular bus-oriented processors (which will

predominate during this period) will also be controlled by the

operating system, enabling a coordinated control over the various

modules which make up a computer system. The operating system

itself will be distributed among various modules with at least a communications, coordination, and low level resource management

function existing in each hardware module. The supervisory

processor in these modular bus-oriented systems will contain the

job scheduling, security, and error recovery and restart

functions of the software which have been removed from the

operating system.

By 1987, the operating system will lease for between 10 and 20

percent of the lease costs of its associated processor and

memory

.

The operating system during this period will also be the

supervisor of the security mechanism. Such functions as address

space protection and protection of the other objects such as

programs, read-only data, and specific system facilities will be

handled by the microcode (and hardware) on a millisecond-tomillisecond basis. However, the major security mechanisms such

as access permission to the system as a whole will be implemented

in higher levels of system software coordinated by a single

centralized security mechanism which may be resident in the

supervisory processor. The supervisory processor will provide

the necessary controls to isolate the applications from each

other, and the application processors will control end-user

access, authorization, and sharing.

65
operator interaction with the system during normal operations

will tend to revolve mainly around the mounting and dismounting

of removable printing and storage media. Other interactions will

only take place in the event of very unusual situations such as

the failure of one or more of the major components of the system.

It is likely during this period that most operators, except those

involved with physical media, will not be in the computer area

but located in an operations control center from which the operations of the system (including its communication facilities) are

controlled.

The easy-to-use operating systems for small computers will have

incorporated facilities for multi-media file management by 1992.

[STAFF COMMENT 9]

2.4.1.4 1992-1997

Most computer systems will be integral parts of larger systems

which handle distributed processing and office automation

functions as well as complex telecommunication functions. The

operating systems of the computer will be completely selfsufficient, operating the computer systems without requirement

for human intervention except for management- level priority setting. The portions of the operating system within the computers

will be almost completely implemented in microcode of one type or another and will be completely controlled by the computer

manufacturer. The remaining software will function primarily at

the supervisory level. Any modifications to the operating system

will probably void any system warranties.

The functions of the operating system will not have noticeably

changed from those described for the 1987-1992 time period.

There will perhaps be more error recovery and system performance

optimization features included in the operating system itself or

supported by functions provided by the operating system.

Most manufacturers will have migrated all of the current operating systems into a single operating system per manufacturer with

the differences in facilities available in various size systems

being handled by different versions of the support software (see

sections 2.4.2 and 2.4.3). The operating system will have been

effectively rebundled into the cost of the system, although

specific charges will continue to be made for other software.

The basic hardware will be inoperable without the operating

system and will be so complex that generation of a user's own

operating system will be impossible except under some extremely

unusual sets of circumstances.

During this period integrated operating systems for small systems

will develop automatic image and voice handling facilities as

well as data and text handling facilities.

66
2,4.2 Support Software

This section deals with that level of software which resides between the operating system and the application level programs

(either user-generated or manufacturer- suppl ied) . Some examples

of support software are the file management systems, the database management systems, the communications management systems,

and the transaction process monitors which exist in most generalpurpose computer systems.

2.4.2.1 State-of-the-Art

At the present time, manufacturers offer a wide variety of system

support software which is usually separately priced and can be

classified in one of the following categories:

o database management system,

o data dictionary,

o communications monitor,

o transaction processing monitor,

o remote and local job entry systems,

o job scheduling system,

o input/output scheduling system,

o file management system,

o time sharing monitor,

o resource utilization measurement and optimization

system, and

o storage hierarchy control system.

One major manufacturer has already announced that future enhancements to its system software will be made in these support

systems rather than in the basic operating system itself. Other

m.anuf acturer s are expected to follow this lead within the next

few years as operating system technology matures.

As can be seen from the above list, most of the user interfaces

with the system software are with one or more of these packages.

The major interfaces with the operating system (the control language and the operating system supervisor calls) have disappeared

or are quickly disappearing from the user's view, being masked by

the high-level language and by the control languages of these

various support systems.

67
2.4.2.2 1982-1987

We expect the systems at this level of software to become more

distinct and more comprehensive. Their functionality will increase as functions are removed from the operating system and

their separate identities will become more firmly established.

Groupings of the systems will become more pronounced as the

functionality of the various special-purpose processors is

increased. We foresee three major groupings of systems:

o macro resource management,

o storage management (including database management) , and

o communications management.

The macro resource management systems will be the outgrowth of

today's job scheduling, job entry, spooling, resource measurement

and optimization, and error recovery and restart routines. These

systems will have overall management control of the entire computer system (and generally will run in the supervisory

processor) . The user interfaces to these systems will be greatly

simplified so that only a few statements on the user's part will

be required to let the system know what is desired. The interfaces between these systems and system operators will be made

more comprehensive, providing an integrated interface for control

of the overall operation of the system. For those manufacturers

who now support several operating systems for the same product

line, the differences between the external interfaces of those

systems will begin to disappear as the management level interfaces become more compatible among the various systems.

Each of the packages will be separately priced, with several

levels of functionality being available for various size

machines. Major enhancements during this period will be in the

area of security control and restart and recovery features.

These functions will be integrated in such a way that the system

will be able to be restarted or recover in the event of any type

of failure with little operator intervention and with little or no loss of data. When the system recovers it will inform the

affected users of the loss of any transactions and the corresponding need to re-enter these transactions. The major progress

in this area will take place toward the end of the period, with

the larger systems having complete facilities first.

The storage management class of routines will include such

functions as storage hierarchy management, file management, data

dictionary, and database management. Each of these routines will

be separately priced and separately identified, though they will

form a type of hierarchy in that the database management system

will not operate without file management routines, but the data

dictionary will be useful with conventional files as well as

databases

.

68
Extract database managers will also appear for the support of

analytic, decision support, and modeling activities. Automatically fed from operational databases, these will generally

contain summarized data from multiple sources and will emphasize

versatility of access and retrieval.

Database management systems will become more capable. They will

be able to be integrated into distributed database systems in

which data is either geographically segmented or, if there is any

data duplication, centrally updated. One of the database management systems will periodically update the master copy of each

class of data, and other systems will contain zero or more slave

copies of the same data. (In distributed systems, use of the

"memo posting" technique of performing updates on-line in a tentative or memo form, with designated control processors doing the

final updating of the master copy periodically, will be the most

prevalent technique.)

The current debate about the various database management models

(hierarchical, network, or relational) has begun to subside and

will have virtually disappeared by the late 1980 's. At least the

large database management systems will be able to give the

appearance and effect of using all three of these models using a single (invisible) data storage model. Text, voice, and graphic

data will be associated with the databases of computational data

with unique query, search, and report generation routines to

account for the special characteristics of the information being

processed. Associative processors will also be extensively used

to manipulate text as well as computational data. This type of

processor will be mainly used on larger systems and will be made

invisible to the end-user. However, logical distinctions among

data models (as distinct from physical models) are applicationrelated and will continue to exist.

Storage hierarchy software control systems will appear as

uniquely identifiable software packages. These system will control the movement of data between the various levels of the

storage hierarchy and will have the capability of automatically

making duplicate copies of data for backup and recovery purposes.

In those systems where software database management systems are

utilized, it is likely that the parts of the database management

system which have to do with the physical storage of data will be

included in the storage hierarchy software systems, as will the

physical data handling parts of file management systems.

The communications-oriented software (which includes transaction

processing monitors, time sharing monitors, and communication

access methods) will become increasingly important. All manufacturers will have developed and implemented their own network

architectures. These architectures will all be somewhat incompatible, especially at the more application-dependent levels of

the architecture, but will all be able to communicate with each

other via ANSI X.25-like protocols. Special hardware- so ftware

protocol translators may be required for communication between

processors of different manufacturers. (Even though basic com69
munication will be possible, the manufacturers will still

exercise lock-in through the higher levels of the software.

Throughout the period, inter-manufacturer CPU communication will

generally only be possible in a master-slave mode in which one of

the processors appears to the other as a relatively simple remote

terminal .

)

Within one manufacturer's product line, however, complex, highly

functional communications between various types of processors and

terminals in complex network configurations will be possible.

The software will absorb more of the network management, diagnosis, and error recovery functions which must now be handled

either manually or with specialized equipment. Many different

types of equipment will be able to be connected to these networks: primarily text processing and data processing equipment

at the beginning, expanding toward the end of the period to include various types of image and voice processing equipment.

The system software will be able to handle non-coded transmission

(in digital form) leading to electronic mail-like services in

which facsimiles of documents which contain not only text but

graphics will be transmitted, stored, and retrieved easily without special user application programs. Toward the end of the

period, communication software routines will be able to handle

digitized voice messages. However, it is expected that this type

of software with its associated hardware will still be relatively

expensive and will not become generally available until the midto-late 1980's.

As operating systems become more self-adaptive and on-line

computing becomes the dominant mode, the nature and operation of

measurement software tools will slowly change. Emphasis will be

placed on terminal response time measurements and measurements of

machine peak loading conditions (memory utilization, paging

rates, I/O rates, etc.) . Continuous on-line data gathering

systems combined with batch summarization systems will gradually

be phased out. They will be replaced by on-demand routines which

are automatically triggered by heavy use of specific central resources, combined with batch data reduction routines which

produce output in more useable forms such as graphs, charts, and

histograms.

2.4.2.3 1987-1992

The appearance of specialized processors will accentuate the

division of the various system software functions. By this time,

the communications functions will run only in the communication

processor; the file processing functions will run only in the

storage hierarchy processor, the task management functions will

be distributed among the various application processors; and only

the overall system monitoring and configuring functions will

remain central.

70
In general, trained communications and database management operational personnel will not be required except for the largest,

most complex systems where high levels of system tuning are

required to meet the users' needs. The system software will

handle all normal operational tasks and integrated system recovery from any single hardware or software failure (including a power failure which shuts down the entire system) . This software

will permit the deployment of large distributed systems where

trained personnel exist only at one or at most a few central

sites to handle the overall system management functions. Endusers will be expected to have little training in data processing

and will be shielded from the intricacies of complex operational

modes by the automatic operational capabilities of the system

software and the higher level application software (discussed in

section 2.4.2,4) . Hardware assists will become common for database management

systems, thereby simplifying the software and firmware required,

reducing the size of the systems, and generally increasing their

functionality. By the end of the period, data dictionaries will

be mandatory for almost all systems, and very few database

management systems will operate without an integral data

dictionary.

The user will be shielded from the actual data model used in the

database, and will deal with the operational or extract database

at the query language level (discussed in section 2.4.2.4) whose

software will have evolved from today's query languages and

report generation routines. [STAFF COMMENT 10]

A new level of system control software will be coming into use

during this period. It will control a distributed information

processing system which is geographically dispersed (possibly on

a world-wide basis) but operates as a single unit. Overall

system control and resource balancing will be controlled from a single location. Independent operation of the various parts of

the system will be possible in the case of a failure or when

integrated system operation is not required. The setting of the

policies which govern the operation of the overall system will

still be a human function requiring personnel trained in system

management but not necessarily in the technological details of

computer system operation. Once these policies are set and communicated to the system control software, the system will be able

to carry out normal control functions on a day-to-day basis without human intervention.

Error recovery facilities will also be automatic, including the

shifting of work from a failed processor to another processor in

the network. However, human pre-planning in distributing backup

copies of programs and databases will be required prior to any

failure, so that backup systems will have appropriate resources.

Automatic connection to a vendor's diagnostic facilities will be

possible for failed equipment. The vendor's highly trained

maintenance personnel will be alerted automatically and will

71
remotely diagnose the failure in order to provide rapid repair.

However, users' security requirements will sometimes force them

to forego this service.

The communications network resources available to the system will

be treated in much the same way as the processing resources of

the system, permitting dynamic reallocation of network resources

as required. Digitized voice, facsimile, video, as well as coded

data and text will be handled simultaneously on the same network

facilities. All terminals will be able to communicate with all

application subsystems, with the system software handling whatever high level protocol translations are required to make the

communication possible. (Naturally, when the terminal is not

physically able to handle a given type of data, this will not be

possible.) Multiple levels of encryption will be possible,

handled automatically by the security control software in those

systems where this is deemed important.

Distributed processing networks using equipment from different

manufacturers will be possible. However, none of the participating manufacturers will take responsibility for the entire

network. Careful coordination by the user of the applications on

the different manufacturers' types of equipment will be required

in order to insure the appropriate levels of compatibility. Most

differences will be in the higher level application-dependent

functions; vendor-provided application software will be developed

in such a way as to try to lock a user into the vendor's product

1 ine

.

Measurement software tools will continue their slow evolution.

Increasing amounts of self-measurement software and firmware will

be built into the operating system and control processors of the

bus oriented systems which are expected to be common during this

period. This code will build an historical database of usage

information which will be analyzed periodically by batch data

reduction routines. These routines will utilize the historical

data not only to report on current resource utilization but also

to generate forecasts of additional resource requirements.

Multiple options for most types of software will be offered, each

independently priced. For many systems the price of software is

apt to be greater than 50 percent of the price of the hardware.

2.4.2.4 1992-1997

By this time we expect data processing functions to be only one

aspect of the processing that an integrated information processing system is expected to perform. The intermediate levels of

system software will have grown enormously in size and

complexity.

Completely automated operation of world-wide, distributed information processing systems will be made possible by this

intermediate level of system software. Adaptive or experiencebased load balancing, error recovery, and system optimization

72
will be standard features of most manufacturers" software. The

software catalogs of the period will approximate today's hardware

catalog s

.

There will be large functional systems of software with multiple

optional features, all at separate prices. Users will choose

specific options for their systems, and the software systems will

be pre- integrated , tested, and installed by the manufacturer.

System generation, as we now know it, will have almost

d isappeared

.

Information processing networks which contain equipment and

software from multiple vendors will be common. The manufacturers

will still attempt various types of lock-in by providing special

features for their subsystems, but the emphasis will have changed

from attempting to lock a user into an entire system of a single

vendors' equipment to maximizing the amount of the vendors'

equipment that is contained within the subsystems making it up.

In other words, interconnection of products from multiple vendors

will generally be possible, but functional integration of

products in subsystems will remain more vendor- spec i f ic

.

Limited amounts of artificial intelligence will be built into the

software by this time. It will primarily be used to handle the

dynamic load balancing and optimization of the system as well as

some of the more important security aspects of the system. Also,

extract databases for support of modeling, decision support, and

analytic activities are likely to be able to adapt to individual

users' interests and needs, evolving into knowledge-based

personal assistants.

2.4.3 Application Level Software

This section deals with the level of software that directly

interfaces with the end-user and carries out the processing requested by the end-user. The software at this level can be

divided into two categories: tools used by the end-user to carry

out various processing activities and application software for

repetitive, production use prepared either by the end-users or by

trained programmers.

2.4.3.1 State-of-the-Art

At the present time, we are observing the maturation of the

procedure-oriented software development tools which have been

slowly evolving over the past thirty years. The number of

general-purpose programming languages in widespread use has been

stabilizing with few, if any, completely new languages being introduced in the past five years. In addition to the standard

languages (COBOL, BASIC, and FORTRAN) such languages as PL/1,

APL, and Pascal (and C, for systems programming) are slowly replacing assembly language programming.

73
A new language, Ada (Ada is a trademark of the Department of

Defense) , may replace some of the other general-purpose languages

for major system development projects due to its structuring and

code reusability capabilities. Ada is under the control of the

U.S. Department of Defense and is primarily intended for use in

real time applications as a part of weapons systems. It remains

to be seen whether it will become a major factor for the non-real

time general-purpose market. Slow growth is also likely in the

use of very high-level languages for system specification and

design, especially in the context of large projects.

All these languages are undergoing a slow, steady evolution which

is making them more powerful and more easily able to handle interactive and non-coded data environments. The slow rate of

evolution is primarily due to the large volume of pre-existing

applications which have been written in the major languages and

which form a base for additional applications, and the large investment which has been made by the industry in training

professionals to be proficient in these major languages. These

factors represent investments worth billions of dollars. This

enormous investment actively discourages development of any new

techniques which would tend to reduce its value. [STAFF COMMENT

11]

At the same time that procedurally-or iented software development

tools have been maturing, the number and variety of nonprocedural tools has been increasing at an accelerating rate.

Most of these new tools are either data-oriented or are oriented

toward the new man-machine interfaces such as graphic terminals

which have started to appear in great numbers over the past

several years. The major classes of tools which have appeared

include

:

o report generators,

o query languages,

o graphic language processors, and

o specialized non-procedural analysis tools.

All of these tools are interactively oriented and many are intended for users who are non-data processing trained

professionals. Most of these tools are (to at least an extent)

menu-oriented, with many assists for the users and with protections against the user unintentionally doing harm to essential

system data or even to their own programs and databases.

Increasingly adaptable application packages are spreading at an

accelerating rate as a substitute for in-house programming.

74
2.4.3.2 1982-1987

During the early to mid-1980 's, only relatively minor enhancements are expected in the various procedure-oriented, high level

languages which are offered by the various manufacturers. Most

development effort will be expended on completing the conversion

of the various language systems from batch orientation to full

interactive orientation. In addition, new constructs will be

implemented which permit the languages to make full use of the

various database and communications-oriented facilities being

developed at the support software level. Such enhancements as

the automatic transcription of the data schemas into the data

divisions of COBOL programs and the common definitions of FORTRAN

programs are expected toward the end of the period.

A great deal of progress is expected to be made in this period in

non-procedural tools. Special emphasis will be placed on making

use of some of the new non-keyboard input/output mechanisms which

will be marketed during this period. Such devices as color

graphic CRTs, touch video screens, light pens, voice input/output

mechanisms, and specialized handwriting recognition mechanisms

will be employed. Most of the tools will be menu-oriented and

will have, at least as an option, the ability to output data in

the form of scatter charts, bar charts, histograms, etc.,

whenever that makes sense. The use of color graphic output will

become increasingly important during the period, with most tools

having the ability to effectively utilize color graphic CRTs by

the end of the period.

As figure 2.12 indicates, we believe that application software is

rapidly evolving from "do your own" toward vendor- suppl ied , usertailorable packages. Progress varies widely between application

areas, with the most mature, such as general ledger and payroll,

being the areas most completely penetrated. During the entire

forecast period application software packages will continue to

evolve in generality and adaptability within existing applications as well as into new applications.

Progress will be slower on such often-mentioned items as

artificial intelligence-based problem solvers and generalized

computer-assisted instruction programs. Such progress as has

been made has been isolated in particular application or problem

areas. For instance, some applications of specialized

"knowledge- based" artificial intelligence systems have been

demonstrated in medical diagnosis, mineral exploration, and oil

well log processing. We expect this pattern to continue, i.e.,

slow evolution in the application of artificial intelligence to

discrete problems, with a body of experience being collected that

can gradually be generalized.

2.4.3.3 1987-1992

The development of specialized processors in the database management and image processing areas will lead to major enhancements

in query languages and image processing languages. During this

75
period relatively untrained users will become able to generate

graphics (line charts, animation, maps, histograms, etc.) on-line

with the system in full color. Due to the speed and power of the

processors, multiple analyses and many variations of hypotheses

will be able to be tested very rapidly with the results of tests

shown in easily interpreted form. As analysts accumulate results

and preferred procedures in their systems, knowledge-based

services of a more general nature will begin to emerge.

Some of the animation and three-dimensional image generation

techniques being developed in the early 1980 ' s will begin to be

utilized to provide analysts with three-dimensional simulations

of the behavior of models or images under investigation. Using

these techniques (available primarily on specialized systems),

long range trends can be dynamically portrayed on maps and moving

three-dimensional views of objects being investigated can be

readily shown.

Major enhancements are expected to occur in the program development process. High-level specification languages are likely to

see increasing use. For both conventional and new languages,

such as Pascal and Ada, tools which assist programmers will be

perfected. These will include compilers, syntax checkers, text

editors, project management tools, databases, and data dictionaries in a single integrated environment. These tools will

operate with multiple programming languages (in fact, they will

allow systems of programs to be developed using multiple

languages but all based on the same definitions of the data to be

used) . Constraints of the interoperability will constrain the

languages used however. Each organization will implement only

the languages it uses in its programming environment. By 1987,

such environments will be implemented on large machines with individual programmer terminals connected to them via high-level

network protocols. By 1992, the large machines will only be used

to store the major databases, and the programmers will each have

their own small systems which will carry out most, if not all, of

the processing in an individualized fashion independent of the

main system. This will allow geographically dispersed programming teams to cooperate on the development of complex data

processing software without the need for large timesharing networks to support the effort. Information analysts will use

similar tools; there will be little distinction between them and

programmers. Languages suitable for the development of knowledge-based systems, generally derived from the LISP family, will

probably become richer and more diverse as more development

effort is applied to such systems. [STAFF COMMENT 12]

Much written documentation and instructional material will have

been replaced by audio-visual material stored on video discs.

Programming documentation will be presented in the form of structured walk-throughs of the program. User manuals will be in the

form of tutorial audio-visual programs stored on video discs.

They will be keyed to the data dictionaries used to support the

program development and supported by other cross-referencing

tools. Most software will be provided with multiple levels of

76
on-line assistance routines, which will allow complex software

systems to be utilized by non-data processing trained personnel

both for cler ical- like functions and for decision support-type

functions

.

Various types of office automation will also be provided by these

systems including electronic message handling with messages in

voice, audio- visual , facsimile, and coded digital form. Decision

support systems will be common, allowing many types of models to

be developed and exercised by non- trained personnel. The modeling languages will be interactively oriented and experience with

them will contribute to the development of knowledge-based

systems

,

2.4.3.4 1992-1997

During this period the use of higher level procedure-oriented

languages will begin to decrease as the evolved query languages

and other database support routines substitute for some large

data processing programs. Limited voice input/output for commands will be common, and the ability to handle various types of

graphic data processing, image processing, and character recognition hardware will reduce the use of keyboards at the man-machine

inter face

.

By the early 1990 ' s fairly generalized types of knowledge-based

systems are likely to become commercially important. Each type

will apply only to a specific kind of analysis, modeling, or

forecasting to which a limited range of expert knowledge can be

applied. By 1997, however, ten years or more of software

development will have been invested in some of the application

areas and substantial progress is likely. Specialized hardware

(such as that presently existing to optimize the processing of

INTERLISP) may well be used and interfaces with individually

personalized extract databases will be intimate. To the degree

that these knowledge-based systems are specialized hardware- so ftware complexes, they will probably appear as modules

interoperat ing with more conventional types of modules in the

bus-oriented systems which will, by then, be in universal use.

Most other enhancements which will occur during the early 1990 's

are likely to be incremental. During the 1980 's many new

capabilities will have been introduced and it will probably be

necessary to spend several years thereafter perfecting them by

eliminating bugs, integrating them, making them easier to use and

more general, and implementing them on smaller machines at lower

cost. Some artificial intelligence capabilities may appear for

the large database processors that will have become firmly a part

of computer architectures of the 1980 's. Beyond this, the new

features of the 1990 's will evolve from the commercially

important applications of the time which are not easily predicted

now.

77
78
Genera I -Purpose

Operating Systems

Small Computer

Operating Systems

Support

Software

Application

Software

L

1982

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.

1987 1992

Decomposition into separately priced, partly

microcoded modules

High level command

language, improved

security

Integration into multi- medium modules, common

throughout product lines

Integral, semi-automatic

systems for data and

text processing

Multi-media file management added

Image, voice processing added

Separation into distinct modular functions

Hardware-software

modules for distributed data-base management

Automatic multi-media

network control,

adaptation to users

Rapid growth of Pascal family; data orientation to COBOL; package evolution

Programmer workbenches,

interactive dialogs;

package evolution

Multi-media direct interaction with end

users; graphics;

knowledge-based systems

1997

FIGURE 2.13 SUMMARY OF SOFTWARE FORECASTS

79
3. CHANbtS IN THt INFUKnATION iNUUSTKY

AND MAKKtT

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to review the changes that are

occurring in the structure of the information processing industry

and in the markets it serves because they affect the availability

of the products and systems which are forecast in chapter 4.

Table 3.1 lists the major segments of the U.S. information

processing market and the revenues provided by each segment. All

of these segments are changing. (Our report of September 1981

used a broader definition of the industry and the data reported

therein is therefore not comparable to the data presented here.

The earlier report included worldwide rather than just U.S.

revenues and also encompassed all categories of publishing. We

believe the new, limited definition is more meaningful.)

TABLE 3.1

THE PRESENT INFORMATION PROCESSING MARKET

Segment Approximate 1981 Revenue from U.S. Market

Data Processing $41 billion (1)

Mainframes

Minicomputers

Peripheral equipment and terminals

Personal computers

Software and services

Media and supplies

Office Equipment $10 billion (1)

Typewriters and word processors

Copiers

Micro- image systems

Facsimile equipment

Communications $69 billion (2)

Telephone service

Telex and data services

Customer premise equipment

Information Dissemination $30 billion (2)

Newspaper and magazine publishing

TV and radio broadcasting

(1) Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.

(2) 198 2 U.S. Industrial Outlook , Bureau of Industrial Economics,

U.S. Department of Commerce.

80
Distinctions among segments of the data processing market are

becoming obscure as the products become more modular at all

levels, incoporating microprocessors and minicomputers with

embedded software as components in larger, distributed systems.

The office equipment market segments are becoming

indistinguishable from segments of the data processing market.

Microprocessors make typewriters into word processors which, in

turn, have become capable of functioning as data terminals and

personal computers. Copiers and facsimile machines are becoming

digitally controlled and capable of functioning as computer and

word processor peripheral printers. Even micro- image systems are

subject to change and integration with other market segments

through the incorporation of video disc technology.

The segments of the communications market are changing as voice

and data services become intermixed in all-digital networks and

as local area nets evolve to interconnect the computer-based

office and data processing modules.

The information dissemination market is changing as attempts are

made to exploit new computer-based technology, both to take

advantage of new market opportunities and to counter new competition in traditional markets.

The consumer electronics market is changing as digital

electronics begins to pervade entertainment products and as the

markets for home computers and information services grow.

All of these market changes are accompanied by changes in the

structure of the industries providing the products and services.

Companies are merging, diversifying, innovating, and entering new

markets. This chapter reviews the forcing factors that serve to

both accelerate and constrain these structural changes (section

3.2), reviews the pattern of recent acquisitions and joint ventures (section 3.3), and presents an overall forecast of the

emerging structure of the information processing industry

( section 3.4),

3.2 FORCING FACTORS

We believe the following are the major factors causing the

changes. We discuss first the factors tending to accelerate

structural changes, then the factors tending to slow the rate of

change

.

3,2,1 Improving Technologies

The structural changes in the industry are mainly technologydriven. New markets have developed for previously unknown

products (word processors, digital watches, pocket calculators,

games). Other products have declined in cost so greatly that

entirely new markets for them have emerged. The market for

81
personal computers in the home, for example, is a new one made

possible by the dramatically declining cost of microprocessors

and memory.

Microprocessors have increasingly been used instead of customdesigned integrated circuits in order to save design cost..

Modern data terminals, word processors, and personal computers

all use standard microprocessors. Software for a wide variety of

applications is available from many sources for these standard

microprocessors. As a result, modern data terminals, word

processors, and personal computers are all capable of running the

same wide variety of application programs. Thus, these three

product categories are merging and manufacturers offering any

one of the three must also offer the other two whether they want

to or not. Similar, standard microprocessors are appearing in

consumer products as well (video games, video recording

systems) and the consumer electronics market appears to be

converging with the other three. Apparently, an industry

offering modular information appliances for individual use is

emerging, with only degrees of difference existing between

information appliances intended for consumer, corporate, small

business, or professional use.

Consumer products are substantially less expensive then those

designed for business and professional use. This price

differentiation is likely to widen during the next few years as

the business desktop computers and office automation products

become more capable and (on the average) more costly. In the

late 1980 's and 1990 's, however, the continuing decline in

component costs should cause the price gap between consumer

information appliances and business and professional ones to

nar row

.

Technology sometimes advances faster than markets do. As of

1982, for example, data terminals, word processors, and personal

computers are likely to be operated by different people within an

office. Roles must change before market demand for multifunction devices exceeds that for single-function ones. Changes

in the roles of office workers are in fact occurring, however,

and by the late 1980 's, the mul ti- function devices are likely to

dominate

.

Improving technology is also forcing changes in the component and

subsystem manufacturing structure of the information processing

industry. Semiconductor line widths are becoming narrower and

device densities on chips are increasing; as they do, the levels

of skill and equipment required to design and manufacture

competitive semiconductor products increase. Packing densities

are increasing in magnetic disk devices of all sizes, with a similar result. Low-speed printers have become mass-production

items with very large production volumes required to attain

competitive manufacturing cost. Non-impact technologies are

becoming more prevalent among high-speed printers; design and

82
manufacturing of non-impact printers require a broader mix of

skills than for impact printers. The effect of all these changes

is the same:

System manufacturers tend to give up efforts to design and manufacture components and specialized

subsystems themselves, and turn to outside suppi ier s

.

The outside suppliers tend to merge and consolidate

in order to obtain economies of scale.

The resulting large suppliers of components and

subsystems seek worldwide markets in order to obtain adequate production volumes,

3.2.2 Improving Communications Services

Past cost and technical limitations of high-speed communications

have constrained the growth of data and text processing networks,

and virtually precluded both high-speed image networks (teleconferencing and facsimile) and interactive consumer services. This

cost is dropping for several reasons. Most importantly, common

carrier organizations all over the world are upgrading their

facilities, a process that will take many more years. Progress

has been accelerated for specific services by incorporating more

hardware and software "intelligence" in the devices that send and

receive data. For example, facsimile transmission becomes faster

as more advanced bandwidth compression logic is incorporated in

transmitters and receivers, and both TV and FM broadcast stations

can transmit data in unused time slots to suitably equipped

receivers. Finally, satellite communications can provide pointto-point high volume communications via synchronous satellites.

The costs are still high but will come down as volumes rise.

Numerous large corporations now use satellite communications

occasionally or regularly and a small, but growing, number of

homes are equipped with satellite receivers. Cable television

services for consumers are widespread and they are likely to come

into existence for businesses as well.

Often buildings must be rewired at considerable cost to provide

for the local distribution of new communications services. The

cost of this rewiring will not decline, and will inhibit users'

adoption of the new services.

The slow but steady improvement in communications services is

fostering the expansion of markets for many kinds of information

processing modules. It is also having structural effects in the

information processing industry as the producers of material

(newspaper publishers and the like) attempt to take advantage of

the new services.

83
3.2,3 Economic and Demographic Pressures

The structure of the information processing industry will be

affected by many external factors: political, social, economic,

and demographic. It is not within the scope of this report to

examine them in any depth. A few stand out so clearly, however,

that it is appropriate to mention them.

Productivity improvement is more than just a popular phrase; it

is a firm objective of the managements of many organizations.

Assuming that inflation will continue, they believe that competitive survival depends on improving operational productivity.

o For energy and raw materials, many anticipate shortages as well as soaring prices. As a result the use

of computer-based systems to manage inventories and

resource usage ever more tightly is of continuing

interest

.

o For manufacturing labor, many anticipate increasing

benefit and employment commitment costs in addition

to salary inflation. This has led to a surge of interest in robotics and increasingly automated

manufacturing processes, and the appearance of an

additional group of companies in the information

processing field.

o For engineers and product developers (including computer programmers), the provision of dedicated

computer power and appropriate software tools is expected not only to improve productivity by reducing

elapsed time, but to produce more optimized designs.

o For clerical labor, the present poor level of productivity combines with inflationary expectations to

enhance interest in office automation.

Indirect inflationary effects are also felt, exemplified by the

increasing cost and decreasing convenience of air travel. There

are signs that this will lead to increased use of teleconferencing (which provides another instance of previously uninvolved

firms being brought into information processing — in this case,

providers of TV and audio equipment)

,

Combining with these economic perceptions is a widespread understanding that the declining birth rate will result in a scarcity

of younger workers. Young people (ages 15-24) provide the main

pool of new entrants into the labor force. In 1976, there were

51,6 million young people in the U,S,, consituting 24 percent of

84
the population. In 1987, there will be 37.2 million of them, 16

percent of the population (3). The situation in most other

developed countries will be similar.

The effect of these factors has been to produce a positive

attitude in the minds of managers toward the use of information

processing to improve productivity. This attitude is very widespread in all developed countries and increases the market

opportunities for competitive firms.

3,2.4 Cost and Profit Pressures

Costs have risen at an unprecedented rate for companies in the

information processing industry. The rate of price increase has

been constrained by competitive forces and, as a result, selective profit declines have occurred that have structural

implications.

Capital investments in new manufacturing facilities are required

as technologies improve. Each new level of technology requires

more expensive equipment than the level before and the cost of

money is high.

People costs for software development, marketing, customer

support, and maintenance are increasing faster than the average

rate of salary inflation. (As the industry grows, competition

for a slower-growing pool of trained people forces salaries up.)

Since these people-related components of product cost have

increased relative to hardware cost, product costs have become

more tied to the rate of salary inflation.

The cost of money required to finance all manufacturers' growing

working capital needs remains extremely high. The prevalence of

leasing in the information industry intensifies the problem.

Manufacturers should be expected to pass these costs on to

customers in the usual inflationary cycle and, in part, they

have. However, competitive pressures have constrained the rate

of price increase. These pressures have been intensified by the

fact that large companies outside the information processing

industry with strong financial resources have been moving into

high-growth areas of the industry directly or through

subsidiaries. Anxious to establish strong market positions, they

price products aggressively.

(3) Bureau of the Census. Projections of the Population of the

United States, July 1977.

85
Companies are

alleviate this

directions are

introducing new products and policies designed to

profit pressure. Briefly summarized, the major

these

:

o Separate pricing of software . A separately priced

software product offers the vendor potentially high

profits if it becomes widely adopted, since software

has a negligible unit manufacturing cost. However,

such profits develop only gradually over time. Any

new software product must be attractive enough to

induce users to abandon presently used software and

to undergo the necessary conversion. Software revenues to the industry have nevertheless been rising

steadily. Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates that

U.S. computer users paid $3 billion for separately

priced software in 1981 and that payments will rise

to between $9 billion and $11 billion in 1986, and

to between $22 billion and $25 billion in 1991. (4)

o More maintainable machines. All manufacturers, facing escalating costs for field engineering personnel

and for financing parts inventories, have been designing their new products to have a low probability

of failure and to permit more rapid repair. Recent

concentration on more maintainable designs has produced encouraging results for all manufacturers. For

example, the contract maintenance price for one recently announced computer is about 80 percent below

the corresponding charge for computers of similar

power announced previously. When the industry's installed base becomes made up largely of these more

maintainable machines, maintenance cost pressures

should be greatly alleviated. However, a number of

years will pass before a large part of the present

installed base is turned over.

o Remote customer support. Several manufacturers are

establishing customer support centers both to diagnose equipment malfunctions and to solve software

problems. Working by telephone, instead of by inperson calls, support center technical staffs should

be able to spend substantially less time (and reduce

escalating travel costs) per problem solved. However, new procedures must be developed, hardware and

software must be redesigned in some instances, and

customer doubts about the efficacy of remote service

must be overcome. Early reports on the success of

remote customer support centers are encouraging;

these centers are likely to become a significant

factor in reducing cost pressures.

(4) Wor Id Markets for I nf

o

rmat

i

on Proces sing Products to 1991 , Arthur D. Little, Inc.", April 1982. ^

'

86
o New marketing structures. Associated with the effort

to provide expert services remotely is a widespread

experimentation with ways of reducing marketing

costs. Some products that used to be sold directly

by their manufacturers via personal calls on prospective customers are now offered through electronic equipment distributors. Retail outlets of

several kinds are also being used, including:

independent computer dealers that handle competing manufacturers' products,

manufacturer-owned retail stores,

- office supply stores, and

- established department store chains.

The general hope is that use of retail-type distribution will lower both the time and expertise

required to make a sale. However, the manufacturers' experiments with retail distribution are not

proving uniformly successful and presumably further

evolution will occur. Whatever the outcome, the

structure of the industry will be permanently

affected

.

o New system designs. The trend is away from unique

circuit designs and toward the use of multiple

microprocessors in information appliances of all

kinds. Incorporating modular designs with module

functions determined by combinations of microcode

and software that change only slowly, these machines

should be more economical to manufacture, easier for

the customer to use, and less costly to maintain.

3.2.5 Evolving Interconnect Standards

Almost every aspect of the information processing industry is

becoming more communications-oriented:

- Computer users shift from batch processing to transaction processing, installing terminal networks as

they do.

- Word processing users shift to inter-office mail,

often via hierarchical computer networks.

Information dissemination is evolving from mail and

broadcast media to selective, on-line networks

wherever market demand justifies it.

- Teleconferencing and communicating copiers are beginning to appear.

87
Large computer users already wish to integrate their applicationspecific networks, to add intra-company mail services, and

generally to use remote terminals for multiple purposes. They

are impeded by the lack of interconnect standards at every level

from the basic message protocol to the network control aspects of

the mainframe access methods. Most interconnect standards in

existing networks are proprietary ones of limited generality

developed in the past by large computer manufacturers. The

smaller manufacturers have had to adopt the network architecture

standards of the large ones, thereby limiting available markets

and failing to meet the users' demands for a broad range of

interoperability. Therefore, the rate of the market's growth is

constrained by the lack of vendor- independent interconnect

standards, particularly when media are to be intermixed.

Fortunately, the rate of acceptance of interconnect standards is

accelerating, as discussed below, but the process is necessarily

slow.

The efforts of ICST are helping to produce this accelerated

acceptance within the Federal government and to a lesser degree,

globally. These efforts are important, because even a little

progress toward standardization can produce major long-term

savings for users.

3,2,6 Regulation and Litigation

Regulation (particularly of communications carriers) and

litigation (particularly in the form of antitrust lawsuits in the

U.S.) have been significant forces throughout the history of the

information industry, and they will continue to be. However, a significant change in the direction of the forces seems to be

taking place.

Regulation of the broadcast spectrum and of telephone

interconnect standards through voluntary multi-national bodies

and national legislation has been nearly universal for many years

and, by and large, it has worked very well. The process of

standard-setting is slow, but unsatisfactory standards rarely

either make it through the process or live long, and the process

tends to ensure general conformance to the standards when they

become effective. Versions of this standard-setting process are

being applied with increasing success to video and other wideband communications, as well as to interchange of encoded

information (data, text imagery) . In the past, some equipment

manufacturers and national governments have felt that proprietary

network architectures and interface standards produced

competitive advantage. This attitude seems to have largely

disappeared: all parties appear to believe that manufacturerindependent information interchange standards are in the general

interest. Every computer manufacturer in the world, for example,

now supports the ISO data interchange standards to some degree.

(The larger manufacturers facing conversion costs and potential

market share losses tend to show less enthusiasm than the smaller

ones, but all are officially supportive.) At the same time, the

88
parties involved in the standards setting process (including in

the U.S., the ANSI committees and ICST) appear to have become

more proficient.

We conclude that in the standards area, semi- voluntary regulation

of the information industry is an increasingly positive and

significant force. Its structural effects will be to foster both

multi-national competition among suppliers of products and

services, and overall market growth.

Regulation of the behavior of companies by national governments

may prove a more negative force. In the U.S., the trend is

toward less regulation of large companies. However, implementation of this trend (e.g., the deregulation of part of AT&T and

changes in the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act) tends to be slow.

Other potentially restrictive forces may be increasing; for

example, a legitimate national security concern about the

transfer of sensitive technology. If poorly conceived, restrictions on technology transfer can do more to harm the national

interest than to help it. In some other countries (e.g., France,

Mexico) , constraints on the presence of foreign competitors are

on the rise. Past experience in countries where such constraints

have been strong (e.g., India, Brazil) shows that they can impede

the development of local information industries and markets,

although there may be offsetting social gains. National constraints on foreign competition that are intelligently applied,

permitting economically viable joint ventures, regional

manufacturing, and the like, may serve national interests

adequately without suppressing desirable growth. Economic

nationalism is on the rise, however, and there can be no

certainty that it will always be intelligently applied.

The focus of litigation in the information industries also

appears to be changing. The popularity of antitrust lawsuits in

the U.S. (mainly against IBM and AT&T) is waning, partly because

the litigants rarely won anything and partly because of changes

in both the popular and government attitudes, although an EEC

investigation of IBM policies continues. Not much litigation of

this sort exists outside the U.S. nor does any appear to be

coming

.

The trend of new litigation seems to be toward alleged theft of

trade secrets. The recent allegations that Hitachi and

Mitsubishi obtained IBM trade secrets illegally are only

exceptionally visible examples of a growing trend. The main

problem is that no existing laws adequately protect proprietary

rights in software, and copying of software (especially for

personal computers) is rising as software markets grow.

In summary, increases in economic nationalism and in litigation

about trade secrets may impede growth and structural change in

the industry; improvements in standards and reductions in useless

antitrust lawsuits should foster it. It is difficult to foresee

the exact results, but some of the probable structural effects

are considered below.

89
3.3 RECENT ACQUISITIONS AND JOINT VENTURES

There has for several years been a steady flow of mergers,

acquisitions and joint ventures among the competitors in the

information industry; study of this pattern provides further

indications of the trends.

Table 3.2 lists some examples of affiliations among companies in

the industry that have occurred during the last three years.

There have been many more, including literally hundreds involving

small software firms and service bureaus. The examples in the

table have been selected both because large companies are

involved and also to illustrate the diversity of the

af f i 1 iations

.

There are three distinct patterns among these affiliations:

concentration, product diversification and geographic

diversification.

Concentration is occurring as smaller companies sell out to

larger ones. Faced by the increased intensity of competition

from large mainframe manufacturers and by profit pressures, many

highly competent companies have accepted acquisition (Memorex,

Four-Phase Systems, Logicon, SEL, Centronics, Calma)

.

This concentration is particularly prevalent in the software and

data services subindustry, with the large firms steadily buying

out smaller ones. Automatic Data Processing has recently

acquired five smaller firms. Electronic Data Systems four.

Informatics four, and several others two each. General Electric

has acquired seven, most (along with the acquisition of Calma)

apparently associated with an expansion of its position in

manufacturing automation. (These are not listed in table 3.2

because they are too numerous.)

Continued economic pressures are likely to cause concentration to

continue. However, the number of new starts may equal or exceed

the acquisitions as new firms spring up in the more novel areas

of the industry such as robotics and personal computers. The

process of company formation, growth, and acquisition is likely

to continue.

Product diversification is occurring as large, cash-rich

companies in mature industries seek to participate through

acquisition in the growth opportunities described earlier. Bell

& Howell and Eastman Kodak are recent examples. The pace of such

diversification appears to have slowed somewhat, however; some

earlier acquirers (Exxon, Citicorp) have recently been selling

some of their acquired companies, apparently finding that growth

and profitability can be elusive in this industry.

An area of product diversification that continues to be

particularly active is the affiliation between information

producers and distributors: both diversify through mutual

association. Twelve of the affiliations listed in table 3.2

90
involve combinations of publishing firms and communications

companies, four of them quite recent (Dow Jones, MCI, United

Telecommunications, Ziff). Conventional paper-based distribution

media (newspapers, magazines, books) are becoming less profitable

except in selected markets. At the same time, electronic

distribution systems including broadcast, cable TV, and

interactive computer networks require multi-media capabilities

and the largest possible libraries of attractive material in

order to justify their large capital investments.

TABLE 3.2

EXAMPLES OF AFFILIATIONS

Agfa-Gevaert - Compugraphics

Amdahl - Tran Communications

American Broadcasting - MacMillan

American Express - Warner Cable (Warner Communications)

Bell & Howell - Applied Dynamics

Burroughs - Redactron; Context; System Development; Memorex

CAP Gemini - DASD Corp.

Computer Peripherals (Control Data, NCR, ICL) - Centronics

Continental Telephone - Executone; World Cablevision;

American Satellite

Datapoint - nine foreign distributors

Dow Jones - Continental Cablevision

Dun & Bradstreet - National CSS

Eastman Kodak - Atex

Fujitsu - TRW, ICL

GE - Intersil, Calma

GTE - Telenet

Gould-SEL - DeAnza

Harris - Farinon, Logicon

IBM - British Aerospace

MCI - WUI

McDonnell Douglas Automation - Microdata, Excalibur,

Bradford National

McGraw Hill - DRI

Motorola - Four-Phase Systems

NCR - Comten; Applied Digital Data

Olivetti - Compuscan, Data Terminal Systems, Hermes (Swiss)

Racal Electronics - Redac

Rockwell - Wescom

Schlumberger - Fairchild, Applicon, Manufacturing Data

Systems

Sun Co. - Communications Group

Thomson-CSF - Fourtune Systems

Time - American Telephone & Communications

United Telecommunications - North Supply; United Computing;

Insurance Systems

Viacom International - Sonderling Broadcasting

Wang Laboratories - Computer Resources

Ziff - Wharton Econometric Associates

91
Examples of geographic diversification have been particularly

numerous recently.

The majority of instances involve European firms establishing or

adding to their United States positions via acquisition

(Olivetti, CAP Gemini, Raca , Schlumberger , Thomson-CSF, AgfaGevaert)

.

In several cases (Wang, IBM, Datapoint) , however, the geographic

diversification is the other way; U.S. companies are either

acquiring European outlets or setting up joint ventures in new

market areas.

Japanese companies have rarely been involved recently in

acquisitions or joint ventures in the U.S., although there have

been several instances of joint marketing organizations being

established between small U.S. companies and large Japanese ones

in order to market the U.S. firms' products in Asia. Each of the

large Japanese companies selling information processing products

already has a U.S. presence, either under its own name or with a partner. The Japanese companies are now attempting to increase

their exports to the U.S. market through their existing outlets,

in most cases selling subsystems (printers, storage devices, CRT

display assemblies) to U.S. system manufacturers for

incorporation in their products. The Japanese companies have

also been active recently in establishing joint ventures in other

countries (e.g., Fujitsu-ICL in the U.K.).

Japanese products have to date demonstrated excellent hardware

price-performance and reliability, but Japanese software (while

reliable) has tended to lag behind the state-of-the-art. If

Japanese software innovation accelerates (as the fifth-generation

project would require, for example), Japanese products will

become still more competitive worldwide,

3.4 THE EMERGING STRUCTURE OF THE INFORMATION INDUSTRY

Taking these trends in inter-company affiliations as indicators,

and considering the forcing factors discussed in section 3,2, the

future structure of the information industry should include the

fol lowing

:

1. A new expanded set of retail-type organizations

providing workstation hardware and software interchangeably to consumers, professionals and business

people

.

2. Expanded roles for network service providers offering extensive hardware and software as well as

communications services.

3. A relatively diminished role for corporate system

providers (the traditional mainframe computer manu92
facturers) , The companies involved will be trying

to increase their participation in the first two

areas

.

4. A rich substructure of specialists offering hardware subsystems, software, and data services to

these three kinds of end-user providers (and sometimes directly to end-users via specialty channels

and mail order). The hardware subsystem suppliers

will generally be multi-national; the software and

data service suppliers will generally work within

national language and cultural frameworks.

The end-user (as an employee and as a private consumer) is the

eventual consumer of all the information industry's products and

services. This has always been true, but usually in an indirect

way. An employee has usually interacted with his or her

employer's data processing function via paper reports, with

little or no influence over their content. As a consumer, the

employee has purchased electronic products and telephone service,

each of which serves a single purpose.

In the future, most end-users will have information appliances

("multifunction workstations" in business versions, "information

centers" in consumer versions) that will combine standard and

individualized capabilities. The individualized capabilities

will include optional processing modules and peripheral devices

on the hardware side and programs, public reference information,

and consumer software products (entertainment, instructional,

etc.) on the software side. There will be many of these,

provided both by small, specialized companies and by large, fullline ones. The end-user will procure these individualized

capabilities from a retail distribution structure not exactly

like any that exists today, since business, professional, and

consumer products and their support requirements will overlap in

an unprecedented way. The need for a new form of retail

structure will impede the appearance of new capabilities in

workstations

.

Suppliers of individualized software and hardware modules

appropriate to this new retail distribution structure will offer

their products directly through it. The largest suppliers may

own some or all of their retail outlets, though the competitive

desirability of handling many suppliers' products should favor

independent retail organizations. Similarly, some of the

suppliers will be able to deal directly with the end-user via

specialty stores or direct mail.

This user workstation market will be almost completely

multinational, since interface standards will be in general use

and since relatively few of the modules will be specific to

languages or cultures.

93
In their roles as employees, the end-users will usually be

provided with the corporate standard products and services.

These will include both basic workstation hardware which is

compliant with the corporate interface standards, the corporate

communications services, the corporate databases, and the

corporate processing programs as well as with services not

suitable for incorporation in the workstation. In many instances

the corporation will also provide most or all of the

individualized modules desired by the end-users. Many

organizations will want the corporate people to have virtually

complete control in order to constrain proliferation, guarantee

interoperability, verify vendor credibility, foster sharing, and

obtain quantity discounts. Therefore, it will be necessary for

the larger retail distribution firms to have corporate marketing

capabilities as well as retail outlets.

Vendors of corporate systems will sell their products to the

corporate information system managers, as they do now. These

products will (in general) include the larger general- and

special-purpose computers, communications controllers, large

peripheral devices, and corporate application, data and system

management software. The corporate system vendors will also (of

course) provide end-user workstations in competition with the

specialized vendors. The existence of standard interfaces will

render the competition more or less equal, but the corporate

system vendors will attempt to sell interdependent high-level

software for their systems that requires the customer to buy both

their large computers and their end-user workstations. The

smaller module vendors will have to respond and, therefore, will

still face a degree of need to be plug-compatible.

The number of corporate system vendors will be far fewer than the

number of vendors of workstations and optional modules. In fact,

for many years they will probably be essentially the same

companies as the thirteen or so now offering general-purpose

computers worldwide. Considerations of capital and marketing

cost will tend to keep this part of the industry concentrated.

The present general-purpose computer manufacturers will be

favored because of their existing bases of corporate customers

who are committed to their software. All the corporate system

vendors will attempt to expand their scope geographically, but

change will be slow because of national government impediments

to the entry of foreigners and because corporate customers

everywhere will be reluctant to abandon existing software

investments. The requirement for backward compatibility will

impede the appearance of new functions in corporate systems.

Network service providers will provide communications services to

both corporate and individual customers. They will often own the

information utilities and producers of the information they

distribute. At present, their number is increasing as

specialized carriers come into existence, but in the long range

we think relatively few will survive, each offering a wider

variety of services than today's common carriers do. This

eventual convergence will come about for two reasons. First, the

94
large capital investment required to build any independent

network service will force smaller competitors to combine with

larger ones, as happened in the past among telephone companies.

Second, in most of the world, national governments own the

domestic common carriers, and as new network services become

viable they are likely to be offered preferentially by the

national services. These factors will impede the appearance of

new technology in network services.

Each of these three types of organizations will have to offer an

increasingly broad line of hardware and software products if they

are to remain competitive. Each will also have to invest in

software interfaces so that new products can interoperate with

its existing and past products. Each, therefore, will be less

and less able to sustain internal development and manufacture of

all the subsystems and minor hardware and software products it

requires. The trend at all levels will be for the marketingoriented vendors to procure subsystems from specialists. Intense

competition in the sale of standardized subsystems to broad-line

marketers will foster continued improvements in the costeffectiveness of information processing products, but will impede

rapid changes in their capabilities and functions.

As noted earlier, the hardware subsystem market is already nearly

independent of national boundaries. Continuation of the trend

should lead to a true worldwide industry though local marketers'

names may often appear on the finished systems for nationalistic

reasons. The vendors of software and data services are more

likely to operate nationally, however, because their products

must reflect national languages, cultures, and business patterns.

[STAFF COMMENT 13]

If the information industry evolves along these lines, there will

be winners and losers.

Major winners will be the companies (whoever they may be) that

prove most competent in selling user workstations to the

overlapping corporate, professional, and consumer markets of the

future

.

The relatively few surviving network service providers will also

be major winners, sharing a much larger market among them and

often owning the production sources of the material they

distribute. (Regulation may moderate the degree of ownership.)

Both winners and losers will continue to be found among the

software and data service providers, the user workstation

providers, and the subsystem specialists. Their markets are

heterogeneous and often subject to rapid technological change.

Many of them will also be at the mercy of the larger system and

marketing firms on which they depend. The more successful ones

will probably be the best ones at establishing worldwide

economies of scale (i.e., those most clever at exploiting

95
nationalistic forces in their interests), and those most

successful at integrating forward and controlling their own

marketing

.

Losers will be the conventional corporate system providers, beset

with increasing competition from above and below, made

increasingly vulnerable by the spread of interface standards, and

constrained in their ability to change by their customers'

software investments. The companies which have been primarily

corporate system providers are already moving vigorously into the

other areas. Time will tell whether they, the incumbents, or new

companies prevail. One thing is certain, however: the profile

of any "information industry giant" of the year 2000 will be far

different from what it was in 1970.

96
4. FUKtCASTS UF FUTUKt PKUDUCTS

AND SYSTthS

This chapter integrates the forecasts of underlying technologies

and industry change into forecasts of the overall nature of

future information processing products and systems. Many

specific products (e.g., input/output equipment, mass storage

systems) were covered in chapter 2; the forecasts are not

repeated here. The emphasis in this section is on generalpurpose systems of the future and their implications for users.

Since systems evolve incrementally rather than in discrete steps,

point forecasts are not provided as they were in chapter 2.

However, ranges of expected availability dates are provided.

4.1 GENERAL-PURPOSE COMPUTER SYSTEMS

Centralized processing methods using large general-purpose

computers (batch, time sharing transaction processing) are

expected to remain the most cost-effective for many applications.

This is especially true in those applications where a large

number of trained data processing personnel is required to

support the system, either for software development and

maintenance, or for the purely operational aspects of the system.

Systems which require the use of large complex databases are

especially appropriate for a centralized approach.

Figure 4.1 depicts the organization of a general-purpose computer

system of the 1987-1992 time frame. We anticipate that it will

incorporate the following principles:

It will be bus-oriented (a bus is a wide-band communications

line) . There will probably be two physically separate buses in

most systems: a very high-speed bus for transmitting data and

programs (probably a fiber optic bundle) and a control bus for

transmitting brief control messages between processors.

(Separation of the buses is desirable to ensure rapid delivery of

control messages.)

It will contain multiple computers dedicated to specific

functions of the system. The specific function of each processor

(e.g., the programming language to be processed) will usually be

determined by alterable microcode. The major types of functional

processors likely to be used are described below. The processors

will communicate with one another via messages and data blocks in

standard form, regardless of whether the content is a program,

data, or digitized text, imagery, or voice. They will also be

able to back up one another in the event of the failure of any

other one (fail-soft) . Fault tolerance will be available both at

the system level and at the device and component level to

accommodate the increasing demands of the users for high system

availability. Users will be able to choose degrees of increased

cost to obtain increased levels of fault tolerance.

97
Communications

Lines

Local Area Network

///////

n

n ////// J // //;

Input-Output

Processor

(Tight Coupled) c

Storage

CONTROL BUS

Application

Processor

Batch

Input -Output

i

DATA/ BUS

Line to Remote

" Supervisory

Facility

Storage

Supervisory

Processor (Redundant)

(ZZl CZ

Storage

Storage

Application

Processor

Storage

Specialized Processor [ZD

Storaae

File Processor

(Tight Coupled)

Specialized

File LMagnetic

Disks

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.

FIGURE 4.1 FUTURE GENERAL-PURPOSE COMPUTER SYSTEM

98
There will no longer be a single, shared storage serving all the

processors. Instead, storage will be dedicated to individual

processors or clusters of processors, with the file processor as

the central resource. Clustered processors (similar to today's

tightly coupled multiprocessors) will be used where multiple

processors should work on a single data stream, either to provide

failure tolerance or to dynamically share workloads of varying

priorities. Such clustered processors will typically be used for

input/output processing, for file processing, and for specialized

computing tasks where arrays of processors can be applied in

parallel to tasks like image manipulation.

Under two special circumstances clustered processors will be able

to share one another's storage:

When one processor wants to exchange data with

another, it will send a control message saying

"read a block from location X in my storage" or

"write your results into location Y in my storage"

(virtual locations will be provided, not absolute).

- When the supervisory processor detects a failure in

a functional processor, in this case the supervisory processor will direct another of the

functional processors to read the contents of the

failed one's storage so that the system's work may

continue.

Such a modular computer system will be able to employ widely

varying sets of functional processors.

A supervisory processor will always be present. Containing

redundant small computers (to guard against internal failure) , it

will be responsible for measuring overall system performance and

for sensing and diagnosing equipment failures. It will be

capable of assigning processor and storage modules to overall

classes of work in accordance with assigned priorities, and of

reassigning them in the event of failure. It will have its own

modest input/output capability for receiving and displaying

supervisory information and for communicating with a remote

diagnostic facility, when necessary.

An input/output processor will also be present. Its size and

nature will vary widely, but it will usually be capable of

controlling the attached communications lines and of switching

messages between terminals (whether they contain data, text, or

digitized imagery or voice) . It will also control local batch

input/output devices such as line printers.

A file processor will usually be present. (Many types of these

will be available by 1987 O In small systems, it may be a single, small processor doing no more than managing a hierarchy

of devices to protect data against loss. In large systems, the

file processor will be performing access control, management, and

retrieval functions. It will be redundant for reliability, and

99
may incorporate associative and/or parallel processing

capabilities for searching and retrieval. File processors will

be available to handle data, text, and digitized imagery and

voice (probably varying in design depending on the primary media.

For example, a file processor for rapidly changing data is likely

to employ magnetic media, while a file processor for less-rapidly

changing but more voluminous text and imagery is likely to employ

video discs)

,

Application processors will be dedicated to particular

computational environments. Some will be oriented to direct

execution of programs written in specific programming languages

(COBOL, FORTRAN, etc.). Others will support problem-oriented

languages (e.g., for simulation) . Others will be oriented toward

running the software of obsolete machines. The orientation of

each application processor will be specified by alterable

microcode. Within limits the processor orientations can be

changed via the supervisory processor to meet changing workloads.

Specialized processors of various kinds are available now and

will proliferate in the 1987-1992 period. These will include

array and vector processors as well, perhaps, as others designed

for voice and pattern recognition. Beyond 1992, specially

designed hardware-software complexes for interactive knowledgebased decision support systems may form another class of

specialized processors. Most supercomputers will also fall into

the specialized processor class. They are discussed in chapter

2.

The constraints discussed in chapter 3 limit the computer

manufacturers' rates of evolution toward modular systems of this

type. Manufacturers of systems that have relatively limited

capability and little or no requirement to be backward-compatible

are able to innovate most freely. As a result, modern

minicomputers and personal computers approach this architecture

now, though not all the functional processor types have been

developed yet. Larger general-purpose systems are evolving more

slowly. Performance requirements are more stringent and the

manufacturers are constrained by software investments (their own

and their users') in older systems. Some of the latest types of

distributed office systems also approach this architecture. By

1992 virtually all information systems will employ this type of

architecture; in the interim the systems available will be of a transitional nature,

4.2 DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING SYSTEMS

The evolution of distributed processing systems is more constrained by market and industry readiness than by technical

factors. Most distributed data processing systems are justified

on the basis of a single application, which is generally transaction processing-oriented and dependent upon several

geographically distributed but functionally integrated databases. It is generally found that once a distributed processing

system is installed other local applications are added to the

100
systems to increase the effectiveness of local management or operations. However, the successful distributed processing

systems generally retain centralized control of the databases and

programs which are essential to the operation of the main

application for which the system was justified. Prudent users

perform a careful analysis of each application on a case-by-case

basis to determine whether an application is more effectively

implemented using a distributed data processing solution, a batch

centralized solultion, or an on-line transaction processing

centralized solution. In a given user's network, there will be

two main constraints governing the extent to which distributed

processing is employed.

o File Management and Control

If a file record is to be altered by more than one

party, carefully-developed systems to assure

identity of records at multiple locations must be

employed. The distribution of files in a processing network must therefore be planned and

controlled on a central basis if integrity is to be

assured, along with the distribution of data entry,

inquiry and processing functions associated with

the files. Other constraints on file distribution

include access control, security, backup and recoverabil i ty

.

o Non-standard Communi cat ion Protocols

There is no standard set of rules (protocols) by

which information processing devices communicate

with one another. Computer and office system manufacturers promote their own, hoping for competitive

advantage. Users, forced to proceed with the

implementation of network systems, develop their

own protocols or select those of particular manufacturers. It seems likely that the ISO standards

for message communication will eventually become

universally supported, however. The work of ICST

is an important influence in refining the ISO

protocols and accelerating their acceptance.

Fortunately, conversions between specified protocols can often be

made in the sending and receiving devices (or controllers) by

combinations of software and microcode provided for the purpose.

Equipment manufacturers are often willing to provide this

protocol conversion software on contract or in their selfinterest (some small manufacturers offer protocol converters

now) . If a restricted set of versatile protocols can be

established for a given network as it evolves, and if the

information processing devices used in it are equipped with

enough processing power to perform protocol conversions, it seems

likely that any individual future protocol support need can be

101
met by retrofitting contracted software into the devices. No

generalized, open-ended protocol converters are envisioned,

however

.

The primary local resource in distributed processing systems is

the microprocessor-based system (MBS), implemented variously as a local controller for peripheral equipment and communications

lines and as a personal or desktop computer. When the MBS is

implemented as a local controller it often has multiple

microprocessors, some of them dedicated to protocol conversions.

When the MBS is implemented as a desktop computer it has one or

two microprocessors.

The 1982 version of the MBS has an 8-bit microprocessor and

16,000 to 512,000 bytes of semiconductor high-speed storage. The

1982 version has a memory cycle time probably no faster than 1.8

microseconds, because it must use the cheapest circuits; by 1985,

however, 200 nanoseconds will be standard for even the lowestcost memory circuits. The program residence storage in 1982 is

provided by one or two 5" diskette drives or their equivalent

with 100,000 to 500,000 bytes, and magnetic bubble storage is

sometimes used.

By 1983, 16-bit microprocessors will be standard in the MBS.

Eight-bit systems will continue to be produced in high volume but

the premier "state-of-the-art" systems will contain the 16-bit

processors. Memory will range from 64,000 bytes to 1,000,000

bytes. The new smaller 5 1/4" Winchester hard disks and the 3"

micro-floppy disks will have begun to replace the 5" floppy disk

as the main mass storage medium.

By 1987, the 16-bit microprocessor will have been superseded in

many cases by the 32-bit microprocessor. The MBS will have

approximately three times the 1982 throughput. Its cost will have

declined substantially even though its power and size have

increased; we estimate that this processor with its memory and

keyboard should cost in the $300-$700 range. The MBS will be of

a generalized design suited to a broad range of applications, but

the use of a particular MBS will be usually dedicated to a single

functional area.

The struggle for operating system supremacy should continue

throughout the period. We expect that there will be no clear

winner with a dominant market share. None of the manufacturersupplied systems is likely to spread beyond its specific systems.

The three families of MBS operating systems (Pascal, UNIX, and

CP/M) are each expected to find a specific niche in which it is

widely used. In general we expect the CP/M family to remain the

operating system with the largest market share. The other two

operating systems are, however, expected to have a larger share

of the market than they presently do.

All MBS operating systems are expected to evolve slowly over the

period. The single user versions are expected to remain the most

popular. A foreground-background capability is also expected to

102
become standard for all systems. Some competition from the older

microcomputer operating systems on the 16-bit based machines can

also be expected.

For some applications, where multiple user capability and a high

degree of resource sharing is warranted, a virtual memory

operating system is likely to be available, permitting the

simultaneous handling of inquiry and data entry tasks as well as

simple batch processing. Spooled input/output will also be

feasible. By the end of the period, multiple- indexed files and

network capabilities for database reference are likely to be

provided

.

MBS ' s will be programmable at three levels. End-users will work

with easy-to-use packages such as VISICALC for data processing,

and others for text composition, critiquing and editing,

graphics, and private database management. Programmers will

work with appropriate languages such as Pascal or C. And when a large number of MBS ' s are required to work efficiently on a single corporate application, assembly language programming will

be possible. The ability to run instruction sets developed

earlier will facilitate this, as well as the availability of a wide range of specialized peripherals. Such use of MBS ' s in

corporate applications will often be inhibited by security

considerations, however; MBS ' s are not likely to become as secure

as larger, central systems.

The incorporation of these powerful microprocessors into

distributed processing systems - will provide increased

functionality through graphics capabilities, protocol

conversions, and character set translations; will enhance

security operations; will support user-assist software; and will

improve maintenance features through self-diagnostics and error

recovery. Improved maintainability will permit user installation

and service which will reduce maintenance costs from vendors.

During the 1987-1992 period the use of 32-bit microprocessors

will be standardized for all types of MBS's. Main memory sizes

will grow to the millions of bytes range with 512K bytes probably

being the minimum memory size for MBS's used in a business (as

opposed to home or personal) context. Mass storage will continue

to be largely on hard magnetic disk although most systems will be

capable of accepting read-only video disc input for program

loading, document storage, and audio-visual TV-like training

aids

.

All systems will be equipped for synchronous as well as

asynchronous communications via telephone lines, and high-speed

local area networks. Built-in emulation capabilities (supplied

via a separate smaller microprocessor) will allow an MBS to be

connected into a mainframe network. The MBS will be an integral

part of the network with software in the mainframe and the MBS

cooperating. This arrangement will permit full access to the

mainframe operational and extract databases as well as to local

databases

.

103
The operating system battle will be refocused as the 16-bit to

32-bit processor transition occurs. The older MBS operating

systems will face new competition from the evolved minicomputer

and smaller mainframe operating systems. The strength of these

latter systems will be their ability to offer utilization of the

wealth of application software (both commercially and locally

produced) which has been generated over the years. No generally

accepted standards for operating systems are expected to be

adopted

.

During 1992-1997 the basic word length of the main microprocessor

in the MBS is expected to stablize at 32 bits. The primary area

of change will be in the number and functionality of the

microprocessors which are contained in a specific MBS, as the

typical MBS approaches the general-purpose architecture depicted

in figure 4.1. Single chip-based floating-point processors,

graphic processors, database processors, and communications

processors are expected to be common in MBS ' s of the period.

It is likely that some fallout of the "fifth-generation" computer

research will become apparent in MBS ' s of this period. Nonkeyboard interfaces will be common and some specialized

knowledge- based subsystems are likely to be widely used in

specific decision support applications.

The software of the period will be a natural evolution of the

software previously used. A sufficient inventory of vendor- and

user-supplied software will exist to create a situation similar

to that seen in the mainframe market today. Evolution of

capabilities will be an absolute requirement. Software

enhancements will have to be made without disturbing the user or

application software interface in order to insure that software

and behavioral investments are not prematurely obsoleted.

By the 1990 's, then, extremely high levels of computing power

will exist in the microprocessor-based systems used in

distributed processing systems, and they will have a broad range

of capabilities. However, user and market constraints (primarily

existing software, file management, and interoperability

considerations) will slow down the evolution of users' systems

and the acceptance rate of new products. By the 1990 's a suitable retail distribution and service structure should have

evolved for MBS ' s so its lack will no longer be a constraint, but

this is not certain. The same considerations apply to the

evolution of office systems, discussed below. [STAFF COMMENTS 14

and 15]

4.3 OFFICE SYSTEMS

Office systems are (from the technical viewpoint) supersets of

distributed processing systems. Both incorporate microprocessorbased systems. Both serve end-users in their local offices.

However, while distributed processing systems deal primarily with

data processing, office systems deal equally with text, voice and

image material as well as data. As noted above, many users of

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distributed data processing systems are already adding limited

text and image processing capabilities to them. The objective of

this section is to forecast the evolution of the full multimedia office systems.

Industry structural constraints are slowing the development of

office systems. As chapter 3 points out, multi-media office

systems require the skills formerly resident in four separate

industry sectors: a vendor competent in any one of the four must

acquire the skills of the other three before it can offer mature

multi-media systems. It also appears that the modular information appliances for end-users in business and professional

applications are converging with those in consumer electronics (a

fifth sector) , requiring a new form of retail distribution

system. (Interactive video disc systems for corporate applications have their roots in consumer video disc technology, for

example, but it seems unlikely that present consumer-oriented

retailers can develop or sell such systems.)

We believe office systems will evolve gradually, then, with

single-medium systems (e.g., word processors) slowly combining

functions with other single-media systems (e.g., for distributed

data processing and telephone service) . Our observations of user

behavior support this view: most organizations can assimilate

only small office system changes without disrupting their

activities, and require about one year between changes.

The following forecast reflects this view. During the 1982-1987

period user MBS ' s will be able to perform data entry and inquiry,

text processing, stand-alone computing and image processing

equally well via the use of optional software packages. There

will be several limitations to their capabilities, however.

- Image processing applications will be limited by the

display resolution available at a moderate price.

Management graphics will be adequately supported,

but graphic art and photographic quality will not be

approached

.

The general-purpose user interfaces will not be

ideal for all applications. Special, higher-cost

devices will continue to be needed for production

text processing (especially for printed reports)

,

for engineering design, for photographic analysis,

etc

.

The most important limitation will be availability

of data. Appropriate extract databases to intervene

between operational databases and personal computers

used for decision support will evolve only slowly,

and unstructured office file processors will only

begin to be generally cost-effective toward the end

of the period. Available files will usually be

limited to rigorously indexed data and text files

prepared from terminals within the user's system.

105
Electronic mail for structured, telex-like messages will become

widespread, and this more than any other single factor will lead

to proliferation of low-cost, lightly used terminals. With this

proliferation will come a rapid spread of voice/data PABX's

(local communications switches.)

Anticipated changes in the functionality of PABX's between 1982

and 1987 can be summarized as the integration of voice, data and

office automation functions, thereby making the PABX an

information-handling switch. While the user market is sure to

evolve toward demands for increased functionality, we believe

that implementation of such system features will happen gradually

over the period, driven by developing user requirements and

product feature availability. In 1982-1983 end-users who buy

integrated voice/data switches are usually implementing them to

carry voice only. The 1983-1984 time period will be characterized by the addition of the data handling capabilities and

automated building management functions. However, it will not be

before 1986-1987 that the full capability of the switch will be

utilized through the implementation of office automation functions such as the transmission facility for communicating word

processors, communicating laser printers, voice, voice and text

messaging systems, etc.

At the present time the future is unclear as to the relative

positions of Local Area Networks (LAN's) and PABX's in the

emerging markets. Both types of systems aim to fill many of the

same needs. PABX's have major advantages in the area of voice

communication. LAN's have major advantages in the area of multimedia data communications especially where high bandwidth data is

required. Both will be able to access files or central computers

equally well through gateways at which security controls can be

applied. (LAN's and PABX's themselves can do little to provide

security.)

The situation is muddied even further by the ability of the large

information processing system suppliers to develop and market

both types of systems as integrated peripherals in an overall

information processing system. The resulting confusion is

leading to rapid technological development, but is impeding

market development.

Confusion over interface standards for LAN's is also impeding

market development. Hopefully a satisfactory set of standards

for at least the low data-rate LAN's will be generally accepted

by about 1985. A forcing factor will be increasing usage of

communicating laser printers to share printing and copying

functions within the office, and to serve as high-speed image

transmitters and receivers. Their high data rates will require

many users to consider installing LAN's of limited scope.

Other types of office systems will be evolving independently

during this period.

106
Rapid growth is expected for interactive video disc based systems

for training applications and for many information retrieval

applications involving centrally prepared databases. (The lowercost systems of this period will generally be read-only ones of

limited graphic resolution.) These systems are expected to require only limited, dedicated communications facilities.

Teleconferencing systems will evolve slowly, constrained by the

carriers' ability to offer wide-band communications at acceptable

cost. Some users will invest in their own microwave and

satellite facilities, and others will make do with increasingly

capable versions of teleconferencing equipment that can operate

within the band-widths of the carriers' offerings. However,

general use of teleconferencing will have to await low-cost,

wide-band service. Early teleconference centers will usually be

equipped with their own dedicated wide-band lines.

Telephone service will change little in the absence of continuous

speech recognition technology, but the use of voice commands as

an option for data and text processing systems will grow. Also,

the proliferation of lightly used terminals and voice/data PABX's

will lead to incorporation of the telephone instrument into the

housing of the general-purpose terminal. (Some early versions of

these combined instruments are already being delivered.)

Some useful services such as telephone order entry and inquiry

systems will also become possible, based on speech recognition

technology.

During the 1987-1992 period user terminals (by then properly

called multi-function workstations) will develop substantially

improved capabilities, as noted in the above forecast of MBS's,

They will offer high-resolution color graphic capabilities

suitable for graphic arts work (though not approaching

photographic quality). Accompanying software will lead to

application of three-dimensional perspective views and animation

to a widening spectrum of applications. The extensive computing

and dedicated storage capacities of the workstations will lead

many users to build libraries of their own information and

procedural tools that evolve the workstations into "personal

assistants."

In the 1987-1992 period, software evolution will permit

integration of user workstations with the operational and extract

databases residing on remote mainframes, and cost-effective

office file processing systems ("file servers") should become

generally usable.

Interactive text composition and edit software will become more

versatile: it will also support electronic distribution of text

and graphic material, and text critiquing by remotely-located

ind i V iduals

.

The market for integrated office systems will expand, and the

focus of standards development will shift to the higher-level

107
protocols for display and application level interoperability.

Other shared local resources, especially communicating laser

printers ("print servers"), will also become highly costeffective and will see widespread use. These developments will

increase the need for high-speed communications in the office.

Video disc technology should become widely used in office file

servers. By the late 1980 ' s local input capability (electronic

cameras and converters for encoded material) should be in general

use, and mixed-media storage systems (with document images in the

form of bit streams, and encoded information in the form of file

records) will be in delivery. The present rapid convergence of

the data processing and office equipment industries will

facilitate the evolution of these systems. These mixed-media

storage systems will require high data rates for the

communication of image material.

Teleconferencing using high-speed video links will expand, but

will continue to be constrained by the communications carriers'

ability to install cost-effective facilities for occasional

public use. Video conference rooms will continue to be equipped

with dedicated wide-band lines either to the user's satellite

facility or to suitable wide-band public lines, where available.

Telephone service will continue to evolve slowly, in the absence

of generally usable continuous speed recognition technology.

Digital voice message systems may become commonplace, however, as

well as the storage of digitized voice "documents" in the multimedia file servers.

Figure 4.2 depicts the local communications networks we believe

will be installed by the large but cost-conscious user of 1987-

1992. A LAN will be present to interconnect the local devices

requiring high data rates (PABX, local data processing system,

print and file servers, etc.) . The LAN will also provide access

to satellite or public wide-band lines. The individual users'

telephones and lightly-used workstations, however, are likely to

be connected to the local PABX using existing telephone lines

(much less costly than wiring every telephone location to the

LAN) . Similarly, the heavily-used data and text processing

terminals used for production applications are likely to be

directly cabled to the local information processing system (as

they are now) , because switching is likely to impede their

responsiveness without producing a cost reduction.

Office systems evolution in the 1992-1997 period is difficult to

forecast because there are three embryonic areas in which rapid

change could have nearly revolutionary effects.

1. Continuous speech recognition might come into

general use in the mid-1990 's. If it does, users'

workstations, shared resources and (probably) local

communications needs will be radically changed in

ways that cannot be presently foreseen.

108
109
2. Knowledge- based systems will be in use in the early

1990 's. They will be combinations of workstations

and files that provide personal assistance for

various analytic and decision support activities.

If these prove difficult to generalize from one

user to another, and/or if they turn out to use

conventional resources, they will not have a major

impact on office systems. On the other hand, it is

conceivable that a widespread market for knowledgebased systems could develop that involves shared

usage of associative or fifth-generation supercomputers, or some other kind of novel resource.

3. Switched fiber optic corrmuni cat i ons service will be

installed by degrees by the communications

carriers. If the rate of installation is slow (as

it will be for the immediate future) , office

systems of the 1990 ' s will still be constrained by

the availability of low-cost, high-speed communications. The rate of installation could accelerate,

however, given such factors as high demand, lower

cost of capital and deregulation. If switched fiber

optic communications service becomes generally

available in metropolitan and high-density industrial areas by the mid-1990 's, the users' office

systems could change rapidly as they take advantage

of switched video and very-high data rate services.

If none of these three embryonic areas evolves rapidly, the

office systems in general use in the 1992-1997 period may still

resemble that depicted in figure 4.2. Revolutionary change is

possible in the 1990 's, however, if rapid development occurs in

one of these areas or in some other of equal importance which we

have not foreseen.

4.4 SYSTEM COSTS

Most users' expenditures for information industry products and

services will be rising steadily through the 1980' s on a constant-dollar basis. This seems surprising, because our

technology forecasts in chapter 2 show the costs of most hardware

components dropping by a factor of ten or more. Our reasoning

is

:

- Office systems will generally be new ones with new,

additional costs. Present budgets for telephone

service, copiers, word processors, etc. are not

nearly enough to pay for multi-media office network

systems such as we depict in figure 4.2.

- Most users want to do more complex and sophisticated

data processing. There will be more interactive

processing (as opposed to batch) ; more "browsing" in

databases; more incorporation of text, image and

even voice processing into data processing systems.

110
Most systems will be equipped with software tools

that enable the user to obtain results directly

without having to work through a professional programmer. Software tools that offer the required

ease of use are becoming available, but they are inefficient; they use system resources poorly.

- Most users will be using more externally-provided

application packages for their repetitive production

applications. Payment for packages will therefore

increase (through, hopefully, this increase will be

more than offset by reduced in-house programming

costs)

.

- The system vendors must be repaid for their increased personnel costs in marketing, support and

software development. Some of these costs will be

passed on as increased markups on hardware manufacturing cost, and some as separate charges for system

programs (which are likely to approach 40 percent - 50 percent of hardware payments for many users)

.

Where local retail outlets provide marketing and

service, the increased cost to the user will appear

in the retailer's markup.

Users wanting simpler systems (e.g., stand-alone word processors

or batch processing computers) should find their costs reduced;

electronic modules (computers and controllers) may cost as much

as 75 percent less for a given level of throughput in the late

1980 's than they do now (in constant dollars). We think

relatively few users will want simple systems, though, because

the ease-of-use features of the newer systems will reduce

programming cost for small, interactive programs by at least 20

percent and as much as 80 percent in some cases. Cost of

programmer salaries will matter much more to most users than cost

of equipment.

In the 1990 's, expenditures may stabilize or decline for many

users

.

- Electronic component costs will continue to decline.

Many office and interactive data processing systems

will mature: usage levels will stabilize and equipment procurements will be for replacement rather

than new installation. Most users' batch data processing applications have already matured in this

sense

.

- Providers of communications network services will be

offering integrated high-speed nets, consisting (at

least in part) of switched optical fiber lines.

Users should be able to combine their communication

requirements in these nets, and take advantage of

lower unit communication costs.

Ill
The changes in the information industry structure

discussed in chapter 3 should be largely complete in

the 1990 's. The surviving competitors should be the

most efficient ones, and users should receive the

benefit of continued competition among them.

On the other hand, we cannot clearly foresee the user costs

associated with embryonic products that will not mature until the

1990 's. These include supercomputers with novel architectures

and processing power of one hundred thousand MFLOPS or more;

systems incorporating "fifth-generation" characteristics, particularly continuous speech recognition; and knowledge-based

systems operating as personal assistants for decision support and

analysis. We cannot tell how successful these will be. It may

be that some of these novel products will prove so broadly

popular that increased user expenditures for them will offset the

maturing of the new applications of the 1980 's.

However this turns out, the modularity of future systems may have

the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness. Systems employing

modular computers in distributed networks need never be replaced

as a whole. They will be able to evolve, module by module, as

users' needs change and as new capabilities become available.

After 1990 it should never be necessary to replace information

processing systems in their entirety, as was the case with past

computers: life cycles will become indefinitely long. For this

to be true the users' programs and databases must be machineindependent, however, capable of being moved from one module to

another. This subject is discussed further in the following

section

.

4.5 COMPATIBILITY AND TRANSPORTABILITY OF SOFTWARE

The manufacturers' microcoded processors will be able to run a variety of instruction sets (many already can) . It will

therefore be possible for users to obtain new processors that run

programs written for obsolete machines. Such programs will not

be able to take advantage of the new systems' capabilities (mass

storage processors, special processors, etc.) because the old

programs did not envision their existence. The users will

therefore have two options.

- They can use the old programs as they are, obtaining

a suitably microcoded new machine. Manufacturers

will provide suitable microcodes for the most widely

used obsolete machines; other microcodes can be

obtained by special contract. The disadvantages of

this approach are that all the deficiencies of the

old programs remain, and that the new systems' capabilities are not exploited.

They can convert their old programs. Poorly prepared programs, especially those written in assembly

language with no discipline in regard to data typing

and no use of structured programming rules, are

112
impossible to convert short of a rewrite. A user

organization with a set of poorly prepared programs

must face an onerous conversion (or re implementation) of its applications sooner or later.

Transportability of programs within a line of compatible modules

will be relatively easy by 1985. Taking advantage of reduced

electronic component costs, most manufacturers have recently

introduced computers in the medium price range ($ 50 , 000-$200 , 000

)

that have enough capacity to run versions of the entire software

environments developed for their large systems. User

organizations are already responding by establishing standard

configurations of hardware and system programs that can be

distributed through their networks and operated by end-users

unaware of their technical complexity. Transportability of

software is enhanced by the use of such standard configurations.

(It is easier to establish standards for new applications than to

retrofit them to existing ones. In many organizations, old, nonstandard applications will be running for many years alongside

new ones, until it becomes cost-effective to replace the old

application with a new one or a commercial package.)

Users would also like to be able to transport their programs

across product lines; to be able to select among competitive

vendors' offerings for every system module without having to

reprogram existing software. Vendor independence cannot be

guaranteed unless a comprehensive set of universally supported

standards exists. Some standards exist now and others are slowly

emerging, but the process is slow because of its inherent

complexity and manufacturer self-interest.

After 1990, we believe standards will be supported by all vendors

for a variety of data representations, languages (both procedural

and interactive) and for communications at the message level.

Vendors will remain non-standard in offering distributed

application functions, however. For example, one vendor may

offer a complete data capture, communication, storage and

analysis function. This function may require the use of

terminals, communications processors and file processors, each

containing software uniquely prepared for the function and

presuming the existence of the others. If the software can be

protected as a trade secret, it would be difficult for a competitor to offer any one of the modules. A user desiring the

application function would be effectively tied to its originator

for all of the system modules needed. To avoid such a vendor

lock-in a user must forego the use of such interdependent

distributed applications.

Markets for high-speed services (e.g., broad-band local area

networks and video teleconferencing) are in their infancy, and

until functional requirements are clarified in the marketplace it

is difficult to forecast the development of standards. However,

we believe that the satisfactory standards for high-speed

services can be derived from standards that will already be in

existence. For encoded information, we believe the standards now

113
evolving within the ISO framework for low-speed services should

generally be extendable to high-speed ones. For analog and bitstream information, standards for interconnection, propagation

and storage developed by the television broadcast industry should

be applicable. After 1990, then, we believe that widelysupported standards for high-speed services will also exist

(though the appearance of novel functional requirements could

delay their development) .

A user wanting to remain as vendor- independent as possible should

observe the following four guidelines in preparing new systems:

Programming should be in standard high-level

languages.

Programs should be modular. In particular, input/

output and file processing functions should be

separated from computational ones.

Inter-system communications should be conducted

according to ISO standards, which will probably be

supported by all vendors at this level.

Hardware modules that are to be retained as the information systems evolve (terminals, communications

controllers, processors) should as far as possible

have their specific functions and interfaces established by microcode and software, rather than by

fixed wiring. Within limits microcode and software

can be changed to accommodate new requirements

(e.g., for exchanging messages over a data bus) . In

some instances manufacturers will provide these

changes in their self-interest. In others it should

be possible to contract for them. The ease of

making changes (and the need for them) will be minimized if the communications between modules are kept

in the form of standard messages. To the degree

that modules share an application function via interdependent software, their intercommunication will

be non-standard and vendor-dependent.

4.6 INFORMATION CONTROL AND SECURITY

Commercial requirements for access control and data security are

generally less stringent than those of military security. This

discussion will be confined to commercially available products

and techniques.

For the relatively few commercial users desiring data encryption,

the ICST standard will be satisfactory. We envision no major

effort to improve the level of security provided, though device

costs have already begun to decline. The use of DES (Data

Encryption Standard) may very well increase if and when

encryption devices are incorporated in terminals and workstations

so that the use of encryption is transparent to the user and is

114
performed at little or no additional cost. Encryption will often

be applied to data in files as well as to data being communicated

especially when the storage media is transportable (e.g., floppy

disks). It may also be applied to personal key encryption, data

integrity and message authentication. User demand for encryption

may decline somewhat in the 1990 ' s as optical fiber communication

lines come into widespread use, because signals in optical fibers

are less vulnerable to interception than electrical signals are.

However, increased use of satellite communications may affect

this. In any case, more widespread use of existing cryptographic

tools for protecting data, user passwords and programs, and for

providing authentication, will occur as costs decline.

Physical access to terminals and machine spaces is currently

controlled by passwords, identity cards, terminal identifiers and

the like. Promising work is under way on signature dynamics and

fingerprint and hand profile pattern matching. If these

techniques are restricted to the matching of small sets of

properly prepared patterns (as is the case in access control)

rather than to open-ended searching of large files, they should

prove effective for most commercial requirements by 1990.

Logical access to computer software and databases will also be

subject to improved control. The virtual machine concept can

make it impossible for a user limited to one machine environment

and data set to enter the supervisor state and reach another

machine environment. Even if the user does so, he will then

encounter the system access barriers mentioned above that operate

at the supervisory level. By 1985, access controls in mass

storage system controllers will guarantee compliance with all

specified procedures, particularly if associative look-up tables

are used that can be changed only in a controlled manner.

However, mass storage system controllers operate at a physical

access level. Mappings from the logical to the physical level

must still be performed by trusted processes with hardware

support (i.e., the associative look-up tables must be set up

correctly and must be tamper-proof)

.

It appears likely that by 1990 all mass storage systems will be

equipped with automatic journal facilities, inaccessible to

users, that record all changes and/or all references to a database at a logical level. Primarily designed to permit recovery

from error, these will also be useful for monitoring accesses.

Finally, the use of write-once video disc technology (which we

believe is likely at the shelf storage level in database systems

and in multi-media office files) will also have an incidental

security benefit: it will be impossible to alter file records

without destroying them.

4.7 PERSONNEL AND MAINTENANCE IMPLICATIONS

After 1985, the end-users of the new systems will do much of

their own programming via interactive dialogs with easy-to-use

115
software, so they will no longer need to work through application

programmers. However, user organizations will need central

groups of highly-trained technicians to establish the environment

in which the end-users work: to select the hardware and systems

programs, to establish the standards, to define the software

tools available to the users, and to perform information resource

management functions. The emphasis will be on personnel quality

rather than quantity. A cadre of experts will be required whose

technical knowledge may be greater than presently needed. (After

1990, this requirement for technical expertise may relax as the

system modules become more and more automatic.) Application

programmers will still be needed for the organization's

production applications, perhaps as many as are now employed in

many. However, their numbers will not rise proportionately to

the total amount of programming done in the organization.

A training requirement for the end-users is implied, if they are

to do their own programming. This requirement should usually be

met by short (one-half to three day) courses, since the interactive software selected will probably include self- teaching and

assistance facilities. As information processing systems are

used by more personnel within an organization, the manufacturers

will be concentrating on reducing the training time required to

make effective use of the equipment and on making the systems

easier to use by those personnel for whom the system is only an

aid for carrying out their main functions. As more analysts,

engineers, managers, and clerical personnel make use of the

system part of the time, the manufacturers' emphasis will move

from the data entry, data retrieval types of applications to the

database-oriented, office automation, and personal computation

type of applications which will be needed by these new users.

Thus, major changes in both the training aids and the on-line

system hardware and software supporting elements will be

appear ing

.

The application programmers remaining in user organizations will

be equipped with improved tools to help them, often resident in

their versions of the multifunction workstation (the "programmer's workbench"). Paradoxically, however, the productivitiy

of the developmental programming function itself is not likely to

be enhanced much. Developmental programming is the most intricate, the most skilled and the most highly variable of the

components of data processing system development; hence, it is

the least likely to be automated.

The new software development aids should primarily be considered

as tools for developing bigger systems better. The paybacks will

be found in areas other than programmer productivity, such as

documentation, maintenance, end-user training, and faster

response to small problems.

Effective use of new software development aids will not be

possible in the absence of good program design practices. If

organizations indefinitely attempt to continue maintaining poorly

designed programs, especially those written in assembly language

116
with no discipline in regard to data typing and no use of

structured programming rules, the problem will eventually become

insuperable. The vendors' evolving system environments will make

such maintenance increasingly difficult, and the supply of

programmers with obsolete skills will decline. Organizations

whose applications follow good software engineering principles

and fit the vendors' modular system architectures will find

maintenance much easier. For them software maintenance problems

should decline in severity but will never disappear.

The trend to end-user programming of MBS ' s is cause for concern:

for each degree of improvement in the software engineering

expertise of professional designers, there will apparently be

added numbers of less expert end-user designers. Many

organizations may limit end-user freedom to design software in

the interest of maintaining quality control.

Operations personnel requirements should slowly decline: system

modules of all types should become increasingly automatic in

operation, requiring less loading of programs, scheduling,

changing of media, etc. After 1990, users of information systems

will in most cases communicate with them directly to specify

their needs and receive results, rather than through operators.

This will be true whether the need is for an answer to a question, for a routine batch processing run, or for entry of

data or messages. By the early 1990 's it is reasonable to expect

that network systems will be available that can handle voice and

digitized image material as well as data and text, that can

assist the users in discovering and using system resources, and

that can control themselves within the bounds of normal

operations

:

compensating for equipment failures;

- optimizing service levels to meet fluctuating demand

in accordance with established priorities;

supporting multiple levels of security and access

control; and

measuring the use of system resources and identifying bottlenecks.

Maintenance of electronic modules will become much easier and

less costly:

Failure rates will decline as the level of circuit

integration and automated manufacturing rises;

Failure tolerance through redundancy of modules,

communication paths, etc., will reduce the urgency

of maintenance; and

Self-diagnostic facilities in the systems will reduce the level of expertise required in the field.

117
Unfortunately, the reliability and maintainability of

electromechanical peripheral devices (disk drives, printers,

etc.) will not increase so much. Electromechanical devices will

therefore be used less (e.g., magnetic bubble technology will be

used instead of magnetic disk for smaller files) , but many of

them will still be needed. Combining this fact with a probable

proliferation of information system modules in relatively

inaccessible field locations, the result may be that overall cost

and quality problems of system maintenance will remain at

approximately their present level.

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5. SUMhAKY

5.1 INTRODUCTION

Figure 5,1, at the end of chapter 5, summarizes the major

findings in chapters 2-4. Summaries of the component technology

forecasts are presented in chapter 2 and are not repeated here,

but the summaries of product-related forecasts are included.

The leftmost column lists the technology areas most important to

the development of future information industry products. The

technology areas are listed next to the products on which they

have greatest impact, but this association is not precise:

obviously "improved semiconductor electronics" affects categories

other than general-purpose computers, and "easy-to-use

interactive software" affects categories other than intelligent

terminals and desktop computers. This broad overview does not

attempt to be precise.

The second column identifies the nine product categories that are

individually forecast. They are defined below.

The third column introduces aspects of the information processing

industry's structure that are likely to either advance or retard

the evolution of each product category.

The remaining three columns summarize our forecasts for each

product category during the next three five-year periods: 1982-

1987, 1987-1992, and 1992-1997. We forecast the general

availability of mature, robust products: in many instances

embryonic versions of the products appear in the market as much

as five years earlier.

The next section of this chapter comments on the product category

forecasts summarized in figure 5.1, and the concluding section

contains a brief overview of the implications for users.

5.2 FORECASTS BY PRODUCT CATEGORY

General-purpose computers are of any size and price, but by

definition they are capable of operating simultaneously in all

the modes of use required by the bulk of customers in a given

time period: currently the batch, on-line and time-shared modes

with integrated database and communications management. Therefore they are generally relatively large and costly.

The evolution of general-purpose computers will be limited to a series of individually minor changes to minimize the software

conversions required by both user and vendor. Nevertheless the

systems are partway through a period of transition from

monolithic mainframes to bus-oriented architectures in which a mix of modules is selected by the user. This transition should

be complete by 1987: at that time the processing modules should

have absorbed most of the system management functions presently

performed by operating systems. After 1987 module types should

119
proliferate, some containing application-oriented software sets,

others oriented to the processing of text, image and voice media

in addition to data. The modular architecture is relatively

inefficient because much redundant hardware is included, so user

costs for systems will not decline as much as the costs of the

electronic components will.

Supercomputers are oriented toward mathematical computation and

offer processing speeds substantially higher than those of the

general-purpose systems available at a given time. Their

evolution is advanced by the trend in the industry toward vendor

specialization interoperable subsystems, but retarded by a need

for software compatibility. Even in this specialized area users'

investments in application programs are a strong constraint.

However, research in both computational algorithms and machine

architectures is slowly permitting a higher degree of parallelism

to be employed in many applications. Our forecasts for

supercomputer performance in the 1990 's anticipate a high degree

of success in this research. All state-of-the-art supercomputers

provide two modes of operation, scalar and vector. Scalar rates

typically govern the overall performance of a supercomputer and,

unfortunately, are particularly subject to the physical

limitations just mentioned.

Two avenues of developing technology offer potential for

significant improvement to scalar-processing rates, faster

componentry, and parallel processing. Advances in very large

scale integration (VLSI technology) , will probably improve scalar

processing rates by a factor of about three, relative to the

Cray-1, by 1985. Use of gallium arsenide devices and other forms

of high-speed logic, may provide an additional factor of three or

four by 1990. A second avenue for increasing overall scalar

performance is to use parallel processing systems, i.e., several

processors collaborate in the execution of a common task. As

expected, the first such systems were announced this year and

should become operational in 1983-84. These systems typically

offer two or four processors. By the end of the decade systems

with eight and possibly sixteen processors are likely to be

available. Speedup from these devices cannot be expected to be

linear in the number of processors due to overhead incurred from

synchronization of them and potential delays in data

communications between them. Preliminary research indicates that

systems with up to eight processors will offer attractive

increases in overall performance.

Memory size for supercomputers will continue to reflect advances

in VLSI of memory chips. Thus, by the end of the decade, we are

likely to see memories with 100 million words (64 bits per word)

.

From 1982 to about 1992 we expect the main path of evolution to

be in vector and array processors. Maximum speeds should advance

from about 100 million floating-point operations per second

(MFLOPS) now to about 1000 MFLOPS. Also during the period

software- limited advances should be made in new types of

120
architectures, particularly the data-flow type, which may permit

a much higher degree of parallelism to be applied to certain

kinds of applications. It is possible that by 1997 equivalent

speeds on the order of 100,000 MFLOPS may be reached in some

appl icat ions

,

Other types of special-purpose computers will also be appearing,

advanced by the industry trend toward subsystem specialization.

Besides file processors (considered separately below) these will

include by 1987 limited protocol translators, which will permit

interoperat ion of specific sets of non-compatible products for

individual organizations, and small array processors to operate

as part of general-purpose systems. In the 1987-1992 period we

expect specialized processors for image or graphic material to

become generally available. In 1992-1997 we may also see

specialized knowledge-based processors become available,

incorporating artificial intelligence techniques and special

architectures to provide personalized assistance to groups of

designers or analysts sharing a degree of common experience and

methodology

.

File processors are expected to evolve steadily throughout the

period, advanced by the trend to specialization (and by strong

market demand) but retarded by a need to maintain compatibility

with existing programs and data set representations. By 1987 we

expect four related but distinct kinds of products to become

generally available:

o Database management software that provides extracts

of operational databases for decision support and

multiple user views of data.

o Associative file searchers for limited collections

of data and text,

o Storage hierarchy managers that provide access and

control for large databases resident in multi-level

hardware hierarchies.

o Read-only systems incorporating optoelectronic

(video) discs to provide text and image material for

retrieval and training applications.

In the 1987-1997 period we expect these products to converge by

degrees toward multi-purpose file processing systems that combine

the handling of encoded data, text and imagery with bit-stream

representations of speech and imagery. The convergence of video

disc-based office file systems (oriented toward bit-stream

material) with encoded file processors is not likely until late

in the period. In fact, there will probably be a family of such

systems designed to optimize various combinations of capacity,

speed, versatility and mix of media: user organizations are

likely to incorporate several types in their networks.

121
Intelligent terminals and desktop computers are considered

together, because modern designs of such products are nearly

identical whether their primary application is as data terminals,

word processors or desktop computers. Very large market demand

coupled with the evolution of message interface standards is

causing rapid evolution of the products. However, few vendors

have experience in all three of the markets served (data

processing, office equipment and communications) and the lack of

a completely suitable retail distribution and service industry

also retards progress.

By 1987 we expect to see a complete integration of most terminal,

word processor and desktop computer types (though specialized

versions for focussed production applications will remain) , and

typical devices will incorporate relatively high resolution color

graphics capability and read-only video discs. The prices of

simpler models will decline to $300-$700 (constant dollars), but

models with high resolution displays and costly peripherals will

still cost several thousand dollars.

In the 1987-1992 period these devices will have become highly

modular multifunction workstations, configurable for a wide

variety of business, professional and consumer applications.

High resolution, flat color displays should be available. Also,

the processors described above, and developments in high-level

interface standards and communications, should permit these

workstations to interoperate with a wide range of dedicated and

public networks.

After 1992 developments in knowledge- based systems may enable

versions of these workstations to serve as "personal assistants"

to professionals sharing a common knowledge base. It is not

clear where such capabilities will reside in the networks of the

1990 's (or to what degree they will exist). [STAFF COMMENT 16]

The evolution of voice processors will be slow. Speech recognition technology is advancing slowly; investments in existing

telephone wiring and switching equipment will not be abandoned

rapidly; and existing suppliers of telephone, data processing and

office equipment must all learn about the others' markets. In

the meantime, the development of limited command recognition

systems is likely to permit a number of useful applications to

emerge (e.g., for order entry or inquiry systems). [STAFF

COMMENTS 17 and 18]

In the 1982-1987 period many organizations will install digital

PABX's to switch data and voice traffic, and many will install

digital voice message systems as accessories. In 1987-1992

systems should become available that can recognize limitedvocabulary voice commands, and bit-stream voice messages should

be integrated with other media in office file systems. Finally,

in the 1992-1997 period specialized processors for continuous

speech recognition may also become available for integration into

fully multi-media networks.

122
Automatic document processing systems convert images on paper to

electronic form and produce paper images from electronic signals

(either encoded or bit-stream) . Many early versions of such

systems exist (e.g., facsimile machines and laser printers), but

none yet combine all the desired functions:

o input (optical character recognition) with output;

o text, data and graphic media in monochrome and color;

o bit-stream and encoded information.

Market demand is strong and the evolution of interface standards

is enhancing product development. However, applications cross

over data processing, office copying, communications and printing

industries with which no single vendor is familiar.

Software to meet the disparate needs of these applications is

evolving slowly, so in the 1982-1987 period we forecast separate

development of "communicating copiers" for offices, of OCR page

readers, and of high-speed data processing and printing devices

for production applications. In the 1987-1992 period these

devices should converge into a family of modular document

handling systems serving as nodes in users' networks. Even lowcost versions should have color capability. Maturity should be

reached in the 1992-1997 period, but systems of that time should

be able to deal with a full range of data, text, image and

perhaps even voice media.

Videoconferencing is growing slowly, retarded by the lack of lowcost, high-speed switched service from the carriers. Such

service will slowly increase in availability over many years as

the carriers invest in fiber optic cables. By 1997 multi-media,

high resolution services will be available, but continuing high

equipment costs will cause most users to install them only in

specially-equipped videoconference rooms with dedicated lines to

the local carrier's switch.

Network technology is advancing rapidly as increasing numbers of

vendors concentrate on the area and as interface standards

evolve. Users and vendors alike, however, are constrained by

existing investments in hardware and software.

By 1987 local area nets should be technically mature and

widespread in user facilities (though digital PABX's will be

effective competitors) . Electronic mail will be widespread

within and among user organizations, and the vendors of network

services should be offering a variety of multi-protocol packet

switched services.

In the 1987-1997 period the communication carriers and network

service vendors should become increasingly able to offer customtailored, multi-media services to their customers. By 1997 most

user organizations should be able to contract with them for their

123
entire communications needs: it should no longer be necessary to

separately procure and manage leased lines, packet and switched

services, controllers, etc.

5.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR USERS

Most users' expenditures for information industry products and

services will be rising steadily through the 1980 's on a constant-dollar basis, even though the cost of electronic components will continue declining. Automated office systems will

generally represent new, added costs. New services to end-users

(easy-to-use interactive programming tools, direct access to

databases) are generally wasteful of computing resources. The

modular architectures of modern equipment are themselves wasteful, because the computer and memory in a particular processing

module are idle when its function is not required. Finally, user

expenditures for externally-provided software will be increasing:

for system and support programs, and usually also for application

packages

.

In the 1990 ' s users' expenditures may stabilize or decline as the

new types of systems mature and the cost of components continues

to decline. However, there may be new costs associated with

products and services that are presently embryonic. These

include extremely fast, application-dedicated supercomputers;

knowledge- based systems; continuous speech recognition systems;

and image processing systems with the accompanying high-speed

communications services.

However this turns out, the modularity of future systems may have

the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness. Systems employing

modular processors in distributed networks need never be replaced

as a whole. They will be able to evolve, module by module, as

users' needs change and as new capabilities become available.

After 1990 it should never be necessary to replace information

processing systems in their entirety, as was the case with past

computers: life cycles will become indefinitely long. For this

to be true the users' programs and databases must be machineindependent, however, capable of being moved from one module to

another

.

Lack of industry-wide standards will continue to impede this;

vendors offering integrated systems will prefer that they remain

un ique

,

The mix and number of information processing specialists employed

by users will change steadily.

Relative requirements for application programmers should decline

as end-users do more and more of their own programming, as

programmer productivity increases, and as externally-provided

application packages see increasing use. However, during the

1980 's many user organizations face conversions of their

124
continuing production applications into the new modular

environment; any decline in application programmers will have to

await the completion of such conversions.

Central system planning groups will need increased expertise.

More and better system architecture specialists will be needed.

These people will identify needs and potentials for productivity

and other improvements through the use of such techniques as

organization and data modeling. The use of database administrators will spread, as more organizations create the large,

integrated databases of multi-media material that the technology

of the late 1980 's will permit. Large, self-optimizing systems

will require careful performance measurement, using the best

techniques available: performance measurement specialists will

be needed. Central system planning groups will also have to

apply software engineering methodology more professionally.

They must establish the standards (as ICST is doing for the

Federal government), evaluate and select the modules, and monitor

the cost-effectiveness of the whole. This will be a complex

problem for systems integrating data, text, image and voice

processing, and working in a highly interactive and dynamic

manner. However, in the 1990 's the need for expertise in central

system planning groups may decline again, as the modules in the

users' networks become increasingly automatic and as the providers of network services become increasingly able to assume the

role of communications network manager for the user organization.

At the same time, in the 1990 's the procurement of software and

services for the user organization will be a much more extensive

job than it is now. Application packages, video disc-based

training materials, database services, videoconf erence services

and knowledge-based systems are examples of areas likely to need

increasing central planning and procurement. Perhaps the focus

of many central system planning groups will shift from technology

to software and services.

Effects on end-user personnel are beyond the scope of this report. However, the focus of most information processing

technology and industry evolution during the 1980 's will be on

end-users. Clerical and production workers, professionals and

managers of every kind will be offered new tools to enhance

productivity, improve the quality of work and improve communications. The effects on them will be many and varied, but will

rarely be revolutionary. The main constraint on information

technology's evolution will be the ability and willingness of

end-users to alter their behavior to accommodate the new tools,

without interrupting their daily work.

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PART II: FEDbKAL STAFF COMMtNTS

Edited by

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

and

Department of Energy

127

PKtFACt

t'art II is comprised of comments on the preceding fart of this

report. The comments, M^hich were submi t t ed by members of ADF

staffs from several Federal agenc ies , are keyed, by number, in

their corresponding sections in Part I.

In September 1982, draft copies of A. D. Little's report "Future

Information Processing Technologies", were sent to all of the

Federal agenc i es . Staff members were asked to review and comment

on the report. One or more staff members from each of 15

agencies* returned substantive comments to ICST. Following

receipt of the comments, a joint team from ICST, the Department

of Energy, and A. D. Little "reviewed the reviews" and, when all

of the team members agreed with an individual comment, that

comment was included in the main body of the text that comprises

Part I of this document.

In a number of instances , one or more members of the team either

did not concur with a given comment, felt that the comment was

valid, but beyond the scope of the forecast, or thought that

sufficient attention had already been given to the subject.

In those cases, the author of the comment was consulted,

by telephone or by letter, and invited to submit the comment for

inclusion in this section.

The section notation preceding each staff comment denotes the

section to which the comment refers.

STAFF CUMMtNTS

2.2.4.1

STAFF COMMENT 1

By 1985, for the home computer area, intelligent terminals, etc.,

a combination of small 5 1/4 inch Winchesters (capacity from 10

to 100 megabytes) plus floppies and mini-floppies will be the

dominant storage.

The advantage of floppies is in their increased standardization

in recording media, small physical size, common interface, data

transfer rate, multi-source availability, and removable recording

* Defense Mapping Agency, Department of Agriculture, Department

of Defense, Department of Education, Department of Energy,

Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Housing

and Urban Development, Department of the Interior, Department of

Justice, Department of the Treasury, Environmental Protection

Agency, Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology, National

Aeronautics and Space Administration, Securities and Exchange

Commission, and Veterans Administration.

^129
media. In this area, there will be continued improvement in

size, cost, reliability and product standardization of miniWinchester disk drives.

2.2.4.3

STAFF COMMENT 2

It is implied that TV- type scanning is adequate for document

recording. This has misled many people. It takes at least twice

the TV scanning resolution to record a typewritten page legibly

and four to five times to record a typical technical typeset

. journal page.

STAFF COMMENT 3

This report does not really distinguish the great difference

between the video disc, a recording device matching TV

resolutions, with the much higher density optical digital data

' disk which really requires different techniques for recording.

2.3.3.3

STAFF COMMENT 4

Computer output microfilming (COM) is one of the fastest and

largest volume computer printing techniques in both volume and

dollars. COM for years has done engineering drawings and is,

with CAD/CAM, becoming quite important. Computer Assisted

- Retrieval (CAR) from full text microfilm files is now big

business as is computer driven photocomposition for producing

printing plates.

Chapters 3 and 4 of Part 1 do mention these type of devices in a cursory way. The same goes for Optical Code Recognition (OCR)

and bar code data entry. There are some very big users of both.

Social Security and the Post Office are big users of multifont

OCR readers, the grocery stores, also some parts of GSA and DOD

(now has it mandatory) , etc., are big bar code users.

2.3.5.1

STAFF COMMENT 5

Most audio I/O devices currently on the market are built around

garden- var iety microprocessors. Development of customized speech

processors should result in noticeable performance improvements,

especially in voice recognition.

130
2.3.5.1

STAFF COMMENT 6

Most connected speech recognition systems do not require

modelling the grammatical structure of language, although this

approach in some cases enhances performance.

Recognition accuracy rates for systems capable of handling

continuous speech, when tested with databases developed for

discrete word recognition systems, have shown performance

super ior to discrete word recognition systems. {IEEE Spectrum

26-32, September 1981; J. M. Baker in Proceedings of Workshop on Standardization for Speech I/O Technology , National Bureau of

Standards, in press) . For small vocabularies such as connected

strings of digits, studies at SRI (D. W. Bell, numerous reports

for United States Postal Service) have shown a number of

encouraging results including rapid and accurate entry of digit

strings with commercially-available connected word recognizers.

The degraded performance suggested by recognition accuracy rates

for connected speech recognition systems when tested with large

vocabularies more properly ought to be interpreted as a measure

of the increased difficulty of the recognition task than that the

performance of the algorithm may be inferior.

Efforts to improve the power of connected speech recognition

technology will necessarily include improved understanding of the

acoustic-phonetic features to be extracted from the speech,

better modelling of speech signals and language, and improvements

in computational power and available memory.

Successful commercial exploitation of "command recognition

systems" have been implemented in a number of applications (e.g.,

airline baggage sorting, parcel sorting, and military commandcontrol operations in networking.) Many more applications are

presently in development. The recent entry of major semiconductor manufacturers including Intel and Texas Instruments and

the availability of developmental systems, suggest that more

applications will become "economically justifiable" prior to

1985.

2.3.5.2

STAFF COMMENT 7

The need for completely unconstrained continuous speech recognition systems has not been well established. The imposition of a modest number of carefully-reasoned constraints (e.g., speakerdependence, domain-specific grammars, interactive real-time error

correction protocols, etc.) may sufficiently simplify the problem

to make it within the state-of-the-art within this decade. Major

advances will be required to make it affordable and a commercial

success.

131
2.3.6

STAFF COMMENT 8

Voice synthesizers using a small vocabulary of pre-digitized

human speech have become sufficiently inexpensive to begin to

appear in all sorts of computer-related and consumer items.

Text-to-speech devices are becoming good enough for use in

computer-aided instruction.

2.4.1.3

STAFF COMMENT 9

Of particular interest during the 1986-1989 interval will be the

work of the Microelectronics and Computer Enterprise Post von

Neumann Computing Project. The project, which is designed to

meet Japanese competition in the artifical intelligence area

and to promote greater understanding of highly parallel and MIMD

systems, should be in full swing at this time. It is anticipated that some results of this project will be incorporated

in systems delivered to users before Fiscal Year 1989.

2.4.2.3

STAFF COMMENT 10

The need for staff members who understand data models will probably be greater than this section suggests. Query languages

will be based on data models, and end-users will still have to

know something about the structure of their data to use these

languages effectively. Every organization will probably need

some staff members who understand the mappings from logical user

interfaces to physical storage structures. Performance tuning

will be important and it will be up to database experts to shield

the users from changes in physical storage. Large systems may

need only a centralized staff of experts to accomplish this task,

but even smaller systems will need someone — either in-house

staff or paid consultants — unless they rely completely on

default storage parameters with no physical restructuring

flexibility.

2.4.3.1

STAFF COMMENT 11

The Pascal language now enjoys solid implementations on major

equipment lines and is an especially significant language on

smaller systems. Even though the language is typically implemented with different extensions on different hardware, a substantial common body exists. Large systems, up to 50,000

lines of source code, have been transported to several different

machine types with very little recoding needed for each new environment. A number of operating systems for microcomputers has

also been written almost entirely in Pascal and has been trans132
ported to different machines with modest effort. For these

reasons I think Pascal will experience more rapid growth and more

widespread use than A. D. Little predicts.

2.4.3.3

STAFF COMMENT 12

Program development environments will become available in large

numbers during the forecast period. These systems, as noted in

the A. D. Little report, contain a number of software tools that

facilitate many phases of program development; however, there is a trend for these systems to be highly tailored for use with only

one particular language. Since it is frequently desirable to

develop systems using multiple languages, this is an undesirable

feature. Here I disagree with the A. D. Little statement that

"These tools will operate with multiple programming languages (in

fact, they will allow systems of programs to be developed using

multiple languages but all based on the same definitions of the

data to be used) ." It is my impression that these environments

will not work well with several languages.

3.4

STAFF COMMENT 13

The statement that "The providers of software and data services

are more likely [than are hardware vendors] to operate

nationally .. .because their products must reflect national

languages, cultures, and business patterns" is dubious.

According to ADAPSO's 1981 annual industry survey, American

companies with over $10 million in annual revenues were, collectively, exporting almost $3 billion in software. "Software" was

broken down into four separate categories, i.e., integrated (or

turnkey) systems which accounted for $267 million in exports,

professional services with $428 million, remote processing with

exports amounting to $1,127 billion, and software products (micro

software, database management systems, system software, and

applications software) which accounted for 1.141 billion export

dollars. The last mentioned category is particularly interesting

for two reasons. First, exports account for 22 percent of the

industry's software product revenues whereas exports in all of

the software categories together account for only 12 percent of

the software industry's total revenues. Second, of the software

categories "software products" intuitively would be the category

most likely to be affected by language and cultural factors.

That this is not so is surprising and bodes well for our future

balance of trade IF we take care to protect our international

markets .

It is important to note that the figures quoted are from 1981 and

that they represent an increase in exports of 21 percent over

1980. In 1981, microprocessor software was just beginning to be

marketed in the international arena and we can expect the export

figure to jump significantly when newer data are available.

133
4.2

STAFF COMMENT 14

The incorporation of microprocessor based systems (MBS's) in the

average office and laboratory will probably pass through three

phases over the next decade, each phase determined not only by

the level of sophistication of the hardware and software available, but to a large extent by the level of "computer

sophistication" of the users. This is especially true since most

MBS's will be used by people who have previously had little or no

direct experience working with computers.

The initial phase is a time in which the relative expense of

MBS's will limit their incorporation. They will primarily

appear in offices of planners and supervisors and will consist

of a relatively general purpose hardware system but will be used

primarily to execute perhaps a half dozen or fewer software

packages (word processing, spread sheet, personal data management, communications, etc.). The selection of hardware and

software will be limited by the fact that most of the systems

will be aimed for applications in which the MBS is the only

computer available. Therefore, strong communication programs

will not be available. This will not, however, be of great

consequence to the average user initially.

In the second phase, communications between MBS's as well as between an MBS and a mainframe should take on an increasingly

important role. This will probably coincide with the general

acceptance of 16/32 bit MBS's which will have operating systems

which are far more powerful than those typically used today.

UNIX or one of its imitators or offshoots would seem to be the

most likely candidate for such an operating system. This phase

will also be marked by the incorporation of more specialized

hardware, especially in the realm of human interface - bit mapped

displays, voice communications, etc. Such diversion in hardware

will ironically help in the widespread use of system independent

operating systems, since one person may have to use a number of

very different computers in any one project.

The third phase will be defined by the influx of computer knowledgeable people entering the job market at all levels. This

influx coupled with the gradual decline in hardware prices will

allow businesses to use MBS's in a wide range of areas. The

greatest expense at this point will be employee training, which

will add an increasing impetus toward the establishment of

standard operating systems and application software.

During the initial phases, use of "turnkey" systems will have a dramatic affect on productivity since these will be systems which

provide results without the need for a large number of

programmers and engineers. As time progresses, and intercomputer communication becomes more widespread, productivity

gains will be harder to measure (although they should be great)

.

134
At present, hardware selection should be made with some vision

toward the near future. That is, 16 or 32 bit processors should

be overwhelmingly selected over 8 bits and one should probably

wait for the next generation of exotic peripherals. Both 8 bit

MBS ' s and most of the newer peripherals will probably disappear

or be replaced over the next 3-5 years. In the short run, choice

of an operating system is less critical primarily because few

users will have any interaction with the operating system. The

choice will become increasingly important in the next few

years, however, as the interaction of machines and the use

of multiple computers by one individual becomes more common.

STAFF COMMENT 15

The integration of data processing equipment into networks offers

opportunities for increased productivity by FY 1985. Word processors are now an accepted part of many oganizations . Personal

computers are coming into extensive use. The potential advantages of connecting them into networks are that so doing makes it

possible to share resources, big computers, big storage systems,

specialized output printers or color film recorders; it can give

the members of an organization access to a shared database; the

collection of data at the point of a transaction with its immediate entry into the appropriate data collections becomes possible;

and the provision of a new method of communication, electronic

mail, between the members of an organization becomes possible.

The basic attraction of these networks for many people comes from

the realization that much of what an engineer, scientist,

purchasing agent, or manager does is collect, assemble, sort, and

provide information. Going, for example, from the question

"Should we put new air conditioning in the building?" to the

purchase and installation of an air conditioning system may

require hundreds of interactions between various members

of the organization, collection of information about the

existing conditions in the building, costs of air conditioning, future plans of the organization for the building

in question, availability of money, and so on. This sort

of thing is the daily work of many people. They work with

information, factual data, opinions, decisions, schedules,

and so on. Word processors, personal computers, and traditional data processing equipment are providing valuable

assistance in performing this work. Connecting the equipment in networks will give users better access to the

computing resouces and provide new channels of communication

between the users.

Data networks providing many of these services already exist.

But for the most part they are either in organizations that have

developed them in-house over a period of many years or they are

special purpose networks, such as airline reservation systems.

The development of data networks for general purpose use by

organizations not specializing in computer use is in an early

stage of development. There are several basic kinds of networks

135
competing for consideration. Organizations have hardly begun to

know how to make effective use of such networks. Two of the

potentially biggest players, IBM and AT&T, have only begun to

give hints of what they may do. There are very few standards so

that it is often difficult to connect the products of several

vendors together in a useful manner. And finally, much of what

is described in the press, and in very handsome vendor brochures,

is not tried and proven technology but represents completely new

products from new companies, or is under development.

By FY 1985 your organization, if it is new to data networking and

office automation, should have word processors in common use,

personal computers in common use, and perhaps a small network, or

perhaps more than one small network, performing useful services

and providing your organization with experience in the use and

benefits of data networks.

There are several rapidly developing kinds of network technology that are beginning to be put to productive use. They

are the digital branch exchange, the baseband coaxial cable

network, packet switched coaxial network, and the broadband

coaxial cable network. Much development will have to take place

before their potential can be fully utilized.

The digital branch exchange performs the functions of a traditional telephone exchange, connecting one subscriber's telephone

to that of another. In addition, it allows the same kind of

connection between personal computers or other kinds of computing

equipment. Typical data speeds are 56 kilobits/per second. The

signals are handled over ordinary twisted pair wires. The

telephone signals are also handled digitally, the audio being

converted from analog to digital form to make this possible.

A major advantage of such a system is that in many instances

the wiring installed for the existing telephone system can be

used to provide both voice and data communication service.

The baseband coaxial cable network connects computing equipment

by transmitting short bursts of data at very high speeds from one

device to another. Typical data rates are in the range of 1

megabit/second to 10 megabits per second. Because of their high

instantaneous data rate these networks allow a wide variety of

devices to be connected to them effectively. They have another

advantage, when a network is installed and operating new users

can be connected simply by putting new taps on the existing

cable. This is in sharp distinction to a telephone or digital

exchange where new wires must be run from the central location to

each new subscriber.

The broadband coaxial cable network performs the functions of the

baseband coaxial cable network but it has several important

advantages. It can handle several channels of video information

in addition to the digital data, it can provide audio channels;

it can provide effective communications for several times as

many users as is practical for the baseband system; it

readily transmits information over distances of five or ten

136
miles with very inexpensive booster amplifiers; and it is

designed so that many branch cables can be added to the original

cable, allowing the network to develop as the organizations' use

of it develops.

There is a networking technique that is not new that will surely

continue to occupy an important place. It is the connection of

terminals to a central computing resource using twisted pair

wires. Such terminals can be made to perform in the same way as

personal computers or word processors. In many cases they may

prove to be the most economical way to provide service.

For data communications to reach its full potential, whole areas

of equipment and technical expertise will have to be developed.

The use of shared collections of data, for example, is an art

that is still in the early stages of development. The uses of

video transmitted to individual offices for education and communication are almost completely unexplored. The use of point of

transaction collection of time card information, purchase

requests, and other routine organizational data is in its

infancy.

In view of all this, it seems apparent that organizations should

not be precipitous in acquiring large networks. Those that have

networks should continue to develop them. Those who forsee that

networks can make a contribution to their work should certainly

begin to develop them. But, in most cases, a staged development

will be appropriate. Develop a plan, purchase part of the system

and try it, and then, if necessary modify the plan.

All development of data communication networks should, of course,

take into consideration the relationships between data communication, voice communication, and video communication.

Between FY 1986 - FY 1989, it is reasonable to expect

considerable clearing of the data networking picture. We will

know what services IBM, AT&T, and others offer. There may be

useful standards. Many of the current small companies will have

been integrated into larger companies, developed proven products,

or failed.

It does appear likely that all of the networking techniques

mentioned here, and others, will continue to find new markets and

to develop rapidly between now and FY 1989. If one of the network technologies has fallen into disfavor it will probably be

because some large vendor, or vendors, has pushed hard to support

one that will have become popularly accepted because of that

support, rather than because of its inherent technical

properties.

137
5.2

STAFF COMMENT 16

The key message from the trade literature and computer hardware

exhibitions during 1982 is that TERMINALS ARE BECOMING SMARTER;

the days of the dumb terminal are limited. This year's shows and

advertising are promoting the concept of the workstation and the

different functions it can perform from word processing,

financial management, remote communications, local area

networks .... The majority of the workstations are designed around a bit

mapped raster display with a local processor, memory, disks (hard

or floppy) ; bit mapped graphics are available on many of the

workstations. The early workstations were designed using the

8-bit micro processors but current announcements utilize the

16-bit micros.

The popular 16-bit micros are the 8086, the 68000 and the Z8000.

The Z8000 seems well entrenched in the video arcade games and a few professional applications; the 8086 and the 68000 are even

competitors in the professional products.

For the 8-bit systems, the popular operating systems have been

restricted to single vendor systems except for CP/M and UCSD

Pascal. With the 16-bit systems, the contendors are CP/M-86,

UCSD Pascal, Interlisp and Unix-like systems.

For the next five years, these bit mapped intelligent workstations will dominate the market due to their price performance,

size and the available applications software. The user interface

will change radically as these units become consumer devices with

friendly user interfaces utilizing menus or pictures (icons).

Most of these systems will have graphics capability which will

drive up the communication speeds necessary for communications

with host computers by at least a magnitude for the same

application compared to an alphanumeric implementation.

For 1982, the price range will be in the $llk-$25k range; for

1983 this should drop to $8k-$15k; for 1984, $3k-$10k; for 1985,

$2k-$5k. All of these are 1982 dollars.

The other dominant theme during the next 5 years is the local

area network which many of the workstations are supporting. This

will allow many of these workstations to communicate at much

higher speeds than with traditional hosts and users will demand

and need better host communications.

The primary advantage of the 16-bit systems is the ability to

address a much larger memory area than the 8-bit systems. For

many applications, memory limitations have severely limited what

the workstation could do and many of the 16-bit systems will

support memory management in various ways including virtual

memory systems.

138
In the 1985-1987 period, many 32-bit workstations will become

available and may or may not displace the 16-bit systems. This

depends entirely on price and application needs.

To date, within our agency, terminals have been purchased for

their hardware capabilities or price performance. In the future,

workstations will be purchased for what applications they can

perform; local, remote and distributed. This will severly impact

"centralized user organizations with highly trained technicians

who establish and control the environment in which users work".

Highly trained technicians who select the hardware and systems

programs, establish the standards and define the software tools

available to the users do not have the applications experience

necessary to specify the users environment.

The administrative controls used for acquiring large computers

are inappropriate for workstations. The users will want to control their own destiny. Mass marketing of these workstations

will convince the users that they are capable of this and many

organizations within DOE will have to adopt fundamental changes

in the current way computing resources are provided users. The

choice is not whether the user will have a workstation or what

brand the workstation is but what are the general functions

required of the workstation for it to complement the currently

available larger computing resources at an installation.

[Ed. note: These last comments may be applicable to the

scientific computing environment; they are not relevant to an

environment such as that in an insurance company.]

STAFF COMMENT 17

To date, essentially all audio I/O development has been done by

universities and small commercial entrepreneurs. Expect some of

the larger computer companies to enter the picture within the

next five years, probably by buying some of the small audio I/O

manufacturers.

STAFF COMMENT 18

Fairly primitive, but useful, hardware/software is currently

available in the areas of voice synthesis, discrete word recognition, and speaker recognition. With the development of

specialized processors, progress in all of these areas will continue at a reasonable rate over the next decade.

139

PART 111: TLLtCONFtKLNCl: SUMhAKY

Managed by

Kellogg Corporation

Contract NB82NAAM0773

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

141

PKLFACL

In November 1982, ICST sponsored an audio teleconference for the

purpose of having private industry representatives review a draft

of Part I (the technology forecast) of this document. The

Kellogg Corporation managed the logist ics for the conference and,

in consultation with ICST, selected and contact ed the

part i c i pan t

s

.

The mechanics of the teleconference were, in themselves , of

interest-- sufficiently so to receive attention by the

teleconference trade press. There were nineteen nodes on the

network and for the first fifteen minutes the participants met in

plenary session for the purpose of introduct ions , instructions by

Kellogg's Virginia Ostendorf, and welcoming remarks by ICST's

director , James Burrows. The conference then broke into four

concurrent 30-minute discussion sess ions . Staff members from

ICST and the Department of Energy and Vice Pres ident Frederic

Withington of A. D. Little, Inc. were available as "resource

people", joining the individual groups when called upon. After

half an hour, the participants reconvened in plenary session for

5-minute summaries of the respective group discussions.

The participants received review copies of Part I prior to the

conference. After reading the document , each participant

selected a discussion group from a menu of topics suggested by

ICST, The four topics selected for discussion were: di str i buted

processing, general-purpose computer systems, office systems, and

compatabi I i ty and transferability of software.

Part III contains the transcript of the summary session.

1. PAKTICIPANTS

The following people participated in the teleconference:

Mr. Brett Berlin

Cray Research, Inc.

Mr. I. D. Brown

E. I. Dupont DeNemours Co., Inc.

Mr. Maris Graube

Tektronix, Inc.

Mr. Armin Gumerman

Northwestern Mutual Life

Insurance Co.

Mr. Ed Christian

A. L. Roark & Assoc., Inc.

Mr. Mike Curran

Micro Industries

Mr. Richard Hokaj

United Telecom Computer Group

Mr, Philip Huntley

Engineered Products, Inc.

Mr. A. Ray Daniels

NCR Corporation

Mr. Glen Davidson

Custom Management Systems

Mr. Alan F. Lytle

Northern Telecom

Mr. Ed Mathews

Northern Telecom

143
Mr. John Davis

Bunker Ramo

Dr. Eldred Nelson

TRW

Mr. D. David Edison Mr. George Roberts

Westinghouse Corp. Boeing Computer Service Co.

Mr. David Smith

McDonnell Douglas Automation Co.

Mr. James Burrows

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

'Mr. Robert Carpenter

[Institute for Computer

I Sciences and Technology

'Mr. John Cavallini

department of Energy

I

ijMrs. Peg Kay

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

Ms. Joan Knoerdel

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

Mr. Frederic G. Withington

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

2. SUMMAKlhS OF THL DISCUSSION bKOUPS

Virginia Ostend or f ; Peg, this is Gini Ostendorf in Denver. I think we ' re now ready to begin the small group discussion

reports. If you would like to call on the group leaders for the

summary of their comments, we have allowed about five minutes for

each group to report.

Peg Kay: Alan Lytle, from Distributing Processing, could you sum

up quickly what you've done?

Alan Lytle: We'll certainly try to. I apologize to the members

if I miss any major points. First, a couple of social points

came out. One, that distributing processing tends to have some

major social implications in an organization or corporation, and

requires a corporate management philosophy to succeed. Any discussion of distributed processing, we feel, should make an

attempt to match the distributed processing to the organization

of the entity trying to use it. Second point brought out is that

the vendors of various equipment, and not just the computer but

Ms. Virginia Ostendorf

Kellogg Corporation

Mrs. Pat Powell

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

Mr . Tom Pyke

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

Ms. Cathy Thomas

Department of Energy

Mrs. Shirley Ward Watkins

Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology

144
also telecommunications, software, etc., are and will be driving

forces in the implementation of distributed data processing. In

other words, we as users are not going to be able to solve all

the problems and the vendors are going to, either de facto or with our guidance, take us into this world.

Next point is that the report dwells heavily on microprocessors

and microcomputers to the point that one could get the impression

that distributed data processing really relies on intelligent

terminals. I think the general feeling of the group is that

distributed processing is more than that. And we selectively

have had some very large machines in what we would consider to be

a distributed processing network, and these machines often tend

to be functional in nature. As an example, a machine might be

doing computer-aided design and it might be a large IBM mainframe, but we would consider that to be a distributed machine.

One comment or one phrase that was coined that I found useful was

the idea of cooperative processing, rather than distributed processing. I think we have to give the credit for this to Eldred

Nelson from TRW. But it seems to me the idea of cooperative

processing very much sums up what we were thinking of in our

group discussion.

Some of the problems we have right now and some of the things

that have to be overcome - and again, we're not that good in

putting time scales on it - number one would be the nonstandard

protocols which while allowing machines to link up electrically

and physically, would not allow the machines to link up from the

data point of view. Second would be the distribution of control

of the network so that we can move from having just one machine

control ing like an octopus a whole set of machines out in the

real world. Another problem was the directory problem. It is

great to have a network, but when somebody logs on they need some

kind of mechanism to get to the end point. In other words, to

get to the machine that the data is on. And that directory

problem is going to be difficult. The major problem then is the

distribution of data. And I think we felt that the report did

not dwell on that particular subject, and if we're talking about

distributed processing, we are essentially talking about

distributed data, and that is a whole subject area missing in the

report

.

Quickly then to summarize, we think the report certainly dealt

with the equipment technology - more can be done in the software

and data technology. And as one of our members said, most of the

systems we have start as individual islands which we then try and

join together into distributed processing networks. So, therefore, a lot of the current protocols, a lot of the current

database systems we're stuck with for quite a while to come. We

won't be able to just implant a new distributed processing system

on top of what we have today. Thank you. Those are the main

points. I didn't have time to put them into a priority order,

but I think if you go back to the recording, you might pick up a couple more. Thank you very much.

145
Peg Kay; Thank you Alan. Brett, can you take some time off from

the sun in Honolulu to sum up your General-Purpose Computer

Systems.

Brett Berlin: Peg, I've asked Don Brown from DuPont, who was our

recorder, to give that summary,

Don Brown: We found in the General Purpose subcommittee, basic

agreement with the report. There were several areas in which we

felt the report was too conservative. One of them being that

modular system nodes with half a channel is here now and not in

the 1987 time frame as indicated in the report. We did not think

the report dealt adequately with networking and networking

protocols and, to agree with the first gentleman, with the distributed databases. It's a factor that we need to deal with. We

felt that microcomputers are going to have a much larger impact

than was indicated by the report. Database management system

machines are not dealt with adequately. We feel that parallel

processing software is going to be a deterrent to the rate at

which we can use supercomputers, and we do not see a great demand

for supercomputers. It's going to go at a much slower rate than

the smaller computers. That, in general, was the summary of the

General-Purpose Computer Systems Group.

Brett Berlin: Just dding one area to that which was brought up

by the first report group also. We also saw more need in the

area of protocols and the concept of the heterogeneous system

where each system does start as an island. That makes it even

more important to deal with the networking and the protocol

problem. We are really, I think, in agreement with the

distributed processing group in that as a limiting technology.

Peg Kay: Thank you. Armin Gumerman, can you sum up the

deliberations of the Office Systems Group?

Armin Gumerman: Yes, I can. We also felt the area of the office

systems of the report was too conservative. There's a general

feeling that much of the technology covered in this section is

here today, and it could actually be used much sooner than the

report indicates. We felt that there was a need for education of

the user community, however, to what is available and what needs

to be done to use this.

Areas of particular concern were the local area network, integrated voice, and data PABX. There's a lot of technology here

today and a lot of it being used, which is probably not given

enough credit in the report. Some areas not in the report at all

that we felt were fairly important was the whole area of user

friendliness, which is very important to make this technology

usable in the office. Also, the area of the integration of these

technologies to make them an effective package. Another area

that we feel is very important for the office area that did not

get enough coverage was the area of security. A lot of our

discussion also centered around the need for leadership in the

146
development of standards in the areas where the technologies are

proceeding down different paths, and the need for a leader is

evident. Thank you.

Peg Kay: Thank you. Mike, can you talk about the compa tab i 1 i ty and transferability of software?

Mike Curran; Thanks, Peg. I think the general consensus of our

group falls in line pretty much with everyone's discussion. We

see a major divergence between large and small systems users in

terms of their software utilizations. The utilization of software tends to be directed towards the machine the software is to

be used on, and consequently discourages the transferability of

software as it exists from one machine to another. This makes it

very necessary for the industry to establish some degree of

compatabil i ty which will allow one system to link with another to

transfer information. The general consensus was that that transfer of basic applications of software in the foreseeable future

would be very difficult. The transfer of data in itself is

extremely difficult at this stage due to the variety of communications protocols that are available on the market.

The one thing that we did come to in looking at both large and

small systems was the general feeling that in the small systems

area, where there is a great deal of competition and you do not

have any major dominant forces, the evolution of standards tends

to be much more rapid and conformed to by both small and large

manufacturers. In large equipment, software requirements are

pretty much dictated by the customer requirements and tend to be

tailored for specific pieces of hardware. And the compatabil ity

between large and small systems in the future I don't feel will

be quite as idealistic as proposed by the report. Subsequently,

that area is going to create a great deal of difficulty in the

distribution of information and distribution of applications from

one machine to the other.

Peg Kay: I think our agenda calls for some comments by ICST and

Ted Withington of A. D. Little, and I think I'm going to pass

this to Ted.

Ted Withington: These are very interesting comments. And very

useful ones, I think. You're obviously a very "with it" group.

I was just struck on hearing the very last point about the report

being too idealistic in software compatabil ity . Next to some

earlier reports about, gee, technology is already here and it's

going to be used faster, and the report says it's too

conservative. This dichotomy of market readiness and commitment

to isolated systems and protocols has to be mixed with the

availability of technology, which is the very reason our industry

is so confused today. It seems to me that the vendors, for one

thing, would give a fig to know just where in-between the

extremes of too idealistic and too conservative the actual market

will turn out to be. That's about all. All of the points are

very well taken. I have one feeble defense which is it says it's

a technology forecast, not a management or data administration

147
policy forecast. The points you raise are very well put. I think if we knew the answers, we'd probably put them in anyway.

Peg Kay; Thanks, Ted. From the ICST perspective, we certainly

got out of this teleconference exactly what we wanted. I hope

that the rest of the participants thought it as useful as we did.

Jim Burrows: I'd like to thank you very much for being with us

this afternoon, and especially the leaders of the various groups.

I think that we don't get as much comment in terms of conservative vs. too rash from our government people because they know

that whatever you think is conservative, they think is too rash.

We're not going to get there as fast as some of you. In DOD, we

definitely do use the technologies to the full limit in areas

where it's very clear what the payoff is. But in some of the

support areas, it is very clear that the user and the Federal

Government are a lot more conservative these days than they were

in the '50s. I would like to continue keeping the communication

lines open to all of you. I think all of you have things to tell

us, and if there is anything we can tell you, we'd be grateful

for the opportunity. Again, I just want to express our thanks

for you being with us this afternoon. Thank you.

148
PAKT IV: tSTlMATtS OF FUTUKt SYSTLM COSTS

Developed by

Defense Intelligence Agency

and

Arthur D. Little

contract MDA 908-82-C-0019

Defense Intelligence Agency

149

PKLFACL

The earlier parts of this document forecast the information

technologies through 1997. This part, which deals with the costs

of these future systems, is a compan i on- pi ece to be used for

agency planning. Originally prepared for the Defense

Intel I igence Agency by A. D. Little, Inc., it is reprinted here

in its ent ire ty

.

1. INTKUDUCTIOM

These estimates of future system costs were developed by the

Defense Intelligence Agency and A. D. Little. The cost estimates

were derived by applying simplifying assumptions to the

technology and product forecasts contained in Part I.

This Part provides cost estimates for computer systems,

subsystems, and terminals for 1987, 1992, and 1997. The

estimates are necessarily uncertain and will provide only overall

totals for system costs, but they should be useful for long-range

system planning.

Since computer systems procured after 1987 will be highly

modular, cost estimates must be developed by selecting the set of

modules likely to be needed in a given system. Section 2

explains the way this is done, using tables of module cost and

capacity provided in sections 3 to 8.

Section 9 provides separate guidelines for estimating the cost of

remote terminals and desktop computers. Since these product

categories are converging, they are considered together.

Section 10 provides a guideline for estimating the cost of

separately priced software, assuming that generally available

commercial products are used. Specially contracted, applicationunique software is not considered.

Finally, sections 11 and 12 provide estimates of system

integration and maintenance costs to apply to all systems.

Costs of hardware (sections 3 to 9) are on a purchase basis, at

the vendor's list price. Any anticipated discounts or lease

arrangements can be factored in after the system purchase costs

have been estimated. Software costs (section 10) are estimated

as a percentage of hardware cost, assuming that software is

procured on the basis of a single payment for paid-up license.

System integration and maintenance costs (sections 11 and 12) are

also estimated as percentages of total system cost.

All the estimates are of one-time costs at the time of

acquisition, except for maintenance cost which is an annual

recurring cost.

151
Estimates are based on constant 1982 dollars; there is no

explicit allowance for inflation.

No cost estimates are provided for communications products and

services (local area networks, PABX's, or carrier services).

These are mentioned in the technology forecast because their

evolution is related to that of information processing products,

but coverage of them is otherwise outside the scope of this

report

.

The cost forecasts are for the f ul 1- function , state-of-the-art

products of the time. For such products, market requirements for

increased functionality and ease-of-use are expected to largely

offset declining component costs. Simpler systems with fewer

processors and less software will probably be available in the

future at substantially lower prices than those estimated here;

but if history is a guide, most users will prefer systems with

state-of-the-art capabilities.

2. MLTHUD UF DtVtLOPINb CUST tSTIMATLS

First, the requisite number and power of general-purpose

processors should be determined. The number is determined by the

number of simultaneous processing environments expected. For

example, if a system is to process both native-mode fast-response

transactions and batch programs for an obsolete machine, one

processor should be allowed for each. If, in addition, support

is to be provided for programmers working in a given language, an

additional processor should be provided for each language in

major use (minor use of other languages can be accommodated in

the same processor in the interpretive mode) . If the total

number of processors is only one or two, an additional one should

probably be allowed to provide failure tolerance.

The power of each required processor should be estimated on the

basis of millions of instructions per second (MIPS). (MIPS is a poor measure, but so far the industry has developed no better

way.) Also, most system planners are aware of the MIPS ratings

of the computers with which they are familiar and can, at least

subjectively, relate the MIPS rating to a given level of required

throughput

.

With the number and power of general-purpose processors known,

the planner should refer to section 3 to determine their

estimated cost as a function of time.

For the planner interested in very large supercomputer systems

for computation- intensive applications, cost and power estimates

(expressed in millions of floating point operations per second or MFLOPS) for such systems are also included in section 3.

Second, the planner should determine whether any special-purpose

computers are likely to be needed (for voice recognition, image,

processing, signal processing or vector computations) . Section 4

152
provides cost estimates for them relative to those for generalpurpose processors. Special-purpose file or database processors

are separately considered in section 5, Step 3.

Third, the planner should estimate the overall on-line mass storage capacity needed and refer to section 5 for cost estimates

(access time and other variables need not be estimated separately, as explained there) . The estimates in section 5 also

apply to the file processing systems likely to be used in future

office automation networks. That is, networks which are connected to local area networks, but are otherwise stand-alone

subsystems . Fourth, the planner should refer to section 6 for the cost of the

supervisory and input/output system needed to support the set of

subsystems selected in the first three steps.

Fifth, the planner should determine whether the system is to be

on-line to a communications network. If so, section 7 provides

cost estimates for the necessary control unit (network front

end) . Sixth, the planner should determine whether batch input/output

devices are needed (high-speed printers and batch data entry)

.

Section 8 provides cost estimates for these, whether local or remote. The estimates in section 8 also apply to the document

processing systems likely to be used in future office automation

networks

.

These six steps complete the cost estimating process for the

modules of a computer system.

Section 9 presents estimates for remote terminals and desktop

computers (workstations) . Given the number of workstations and

their types (as defined in section 9) , the planner can estimate

their total cost whether they are to stand alone, connect to a local area network, or connect directly to a remote computer.

Section 10 presents estimates of the cost of separately priced

software as a percentage of the total hardware cost derived in

the preceding steps.

Finally, the resulting costs of both hardware and software should

be increased by the system integration factors in section 11 and

the annual maintenance factors in section 12.

153
3. bLNLKAL-PUKPUSb PKOCtSSUKS

Table 3.1 provides cost estimates for general-puprpose processors

in five size classes for 1982, 1987, 1992, and 1997. In addition

to cost, table 3.1 provides corresponding estimates of:

Power stor age . As explained in Part 1, future

systems are likely to dedicate high-speed working

storage to individual processors instead of having a common storage for all.

Power in mi 11 ions of instructions per second (MIPS) . These processors will usually be microcoded and will

not execute conventional instructions, so this

measure of speed is not directly applicable. However

as noted above, this measure is the only one in general use, and most planners are able to relate overall throughput to it.

The largest supercomputers . For the convenience of

planners interested only in this type of processor,

they are shown in table 3.1 below the five categories of general-purpose application processors.

They are shown here rather than in section 4 because

the cost estimates in table 3,1 are sufficient to

cover a complete supercomputer system if the input/

output and file storage requirements of the supercomputer system are expected to be relatively

modest

.

The modular computer systems described in Part 1 are not

deliverable in 1982. The corresponding estimates in table 3,1

(marked with an asterisk) are for conventional processor

complexes which include supervisory and input/output capability.

If a planner is preparing a cost estimate for one of these, step

four in the above procedure should be omitted; no extra

supervisory and input/output system is needed.

The five categories of general-purpose processors shown for 1982,

become three in the later time periods, "Very small" application

processors remain, but it seems likely that only two other levels

of processor power will be needed in 1987 and beyond since

customers will be able to mix levels and numbers of application

processors in their systems.

154
TABLE 3.1

COST FORECASTS FOR GENERAL-PURPOSE APPLICATION PROCESSORS

1982* 1987 1992 1997

Very Small

Cost ($Thousand)

Storage (Megabytes)

Speed (MIPS)

12

0.5

0. 05

8

1

0. 1

5

2

0.4

Small

Cost

Storage

Speed

Medium

Cost

Storage

Speed

100

1

0.2

320

4

0.8

60

2

1.0

40

8

4

30

16

8

Large

Cost

Storage

Speed

Extra Large

Cost

Storage

Speed

1,400

8

4

4, 700

16

14

600

16

8

400

48

24

200

75

50

Largest Supercomputers

Cost

Storage

Speed (MFLOPS)

10 , 000

20

100

10, 000

100

1, 000

20,000

500

5, 000

30 , 000

5 , 000

100 , 000

Conventional processor complexes. No supervisory and input/

output system needed.

The increases in processor price-performance reflect the expected

appearance of new technology. For example, new high-speed logic

circuitry is expected to see general use in large processors by

1987, so the 1987-1992 power increase and accompanying memory

size expansion are large and the price decrease relatively small.

In particular, the largest supercomputers of 1992 and 1997 are

expected to have very high prices and processing powers. This

reflects the forecast that by then it will be possible to

associate extremely large arrays of parallel processing elements

with certain classes of problems. Most users with high

155
computational workloads will find smaller specialized processors

adequate; cost estimates for these are considered below in

section 4.

4. SPbCIAL-PUKPOSt PKUChSSUKS

These are specialized computers designed for limited purposes

such as voice recognition, image or signal processing, or vector

arithmetic. File or database processors are not included (see

section 5) , but special-purpose processors will sometimes include

specialized file or data set storage. They will be of many

kinds, as discussed in Part 1. No effort has been made to

differentiate the cost and power of each type. Instead, a gross

simplification is suggested based on experience which indicates

that, on the average, the cost of any special-purpose processor

in a system tends to be equivalent to the combined costs of the

general-purpose processors in the same system.

After completing step one of the estimating procedure, the

planner should simply double the combined costs of the generalpurpose processors to allow for special-purpose ones, if needed.

If in a given instance the planner has specific information about

the nature and cost of the special-purpose processor required,

this information should be used to refine the estimate. This

would be possible in the case of large supercomputers, for

instance (see table 3.1).

5. MASS STURAbL SYSTLMS

These include a hierarchy of storage devices (disk and backup

tape for the smallest systems, as many as four levels for the

largest) . They also include the typical controller and its

software. Controllers range from an integral disk controller for

today's small systems to sophisticated, associative mass storage

processors for the large systems of the future. All mass storage

systems after 1987 are assumed to have versions of such

processors

.

Table 5.1 shows the typical costs and capacities expected for

these systems (in megabytes or gigabytes) . Access times are not

shown; in every instance the hierarchy of devices has been

selected to provide the frequency of access typically required in

a mass storage complex of the specified class. Office file

systems based on video discs that have relatively slow access

times and large capacities are likely to become available. These

may cost less than the systems shown in table 5.1.

156
The expected improvements in price-performance of the magnetic

disk storage units govern the cost for the configurations shown

up to 20 gigabyte capacity.

Extra large file hierarchy configurations in 1982 are based on

magnetic cartridge technology. Extra large configurations of

1987 and beyond as well as large ones of 1992 and beyond, are

based on the use of new technology (the laser-based video disc)

and the improvement in price-performance which is expected from

it.

TABLE 5.1

COST FORECASTS FOR MASS STORAGE SYSTEMS

(Costs in $ thousands, capacities in megabytes

(MB) or gigabytes (GB)

)

1982 1987 1992 1997

Small

Capacity

Cost

50MB

10

500MB

25

2GB

45

4GB

40

Med ium

Capac i ty

Cost

1. 66B

160

5GB

120

10GB

100

20GB

100

Large

Capac i ty

Cost

5GB

260

15GB

300

200GB*

500

500-5 , 000GB*

500

Extra Large

Capacity

Cost

250GB*

1, 500

500GB*

1, 200

1,000GB*

700

2, 000-20, 000GB*

700

*These systems incorporate a high-capacity archival store in

addition to faster-access devices.

157
6. SUPLKVlSUkY AND INPUT/UUTPUT SYSTLM

The modular computer systems described in Part 1 employ central

buses for intercommunication, supervisory processors, and

tightly-coupled input/output processors. These may be separately

priced and selected, but in most instances there is likely to be

a typical combination of the bus bandwidth, supervisory processor

power, and combined input/output rate needed to support a given

set of processors and mass storage systems. Therefore, we

combine the three elements into typical combined systems to

simplify the cost estimating process.

Table 6,1 presents the cost estimates for these combined systems.

The planner, having completed the first three estimating steps,

will know how many and what size of processors (both generalpurpose and specialized) and what size mass storage system are

wanted. Reference to table 6.1 can determine which of the four

supervisory complexes will be needed to support them, and the

- resulting cost. Table 6.1 has no entries for 1982. Processor

complexes of the present type, that do not employ separate

supervisory systems, remain dominant (as discussed above in

section 3)

.

7. NtTWORK FKONT END

These are the controllers necessary to connect computer systems

to communications networks. Small systems today typically use

> integral line adapters costing about $3,000. Medium and large

systems use controllers based on minicomputers, with fully

configured costs of about $100,000, Extra large systems use

larger minicomputer-based or redundant controllers, costing about

$200 , 000

.

In the future, their capabilities will expand to eventual

combinations of data, image, and voice communication, all in

digital mode, with expanded data rates and capabilities. These

increasing capabilities will be derived from greater complements

of hardware componentry and from a growing expense for supporting

software. They will, in effect, serve to offset the declining

cost per com.ponent, with the result that the user's cost for

network front ends in each category will remain stable. As a result, table 7.1 shows a constant cost for each class of network

front end throughout the period.

158
TABLE 6.1

COST ESTIMATES FOR SUPERVISORY

AND INPUT/OUTPUT SYSTEMS

($ thousand)

198 2 1987 1 992

20 15

150 100

500 400

900 800

(up to 16 processors,

no more than 4 of

them extra large, and

extra large or smaller

storage system)

Small

(up to 4 very

small processors

and small storage

system)

Med ium

(up to 4 medium

processors and

medium or small

storage system)

Large

(up to 8 processors,

no more than 4 of

them large, and

large or smaller

storage system)

Extra Large

TABLE 7.1

COST ESTIMATES FOR NETWORK FRONT ENDS

($ thousand)

1982-1997

Small Systems 3

Medium & Large Systems 100

Extra-Large Systems 200

159
8. BATCH INHUT/UUTPUT CLUSTLK

We distinguish between the low volume/capability situation and

the high volume/capability one. The first is served by a cluster

consisting of a controller, a small diskette drive, and a 300

1 ine-per-minute impact printer (which eventually is superseded by

a low speed facsimile image output unit)

.

The high volume/capability cluster consists of a standard

Winchester disk drive, and a high-speed line printer of 2,000

lines per minute (1982), which eventually is superseded by a medium-speed non-impact page printing device (1987 and beyond).

Optional to the large cluster can be a high-speed laser

print/image device of 10,000 lines per minute or more, for which

the cost is shown in the bottom line of table 8.1.

The cost of input terminals for either cluster should be

estimated according to section 9.

TABLE 8.1

COST ESTIMATES FOR BATCH

INPUT/OUTPUT CLUSTER

($ thousand)

1982 1987 1992 1997

Low Volume 20 15 12 8

High Volume 80 60 40 25

Optional Very High 350 200 120 80

Speed Laser Printer

The necessary device controllers are included, so the same

cluster can be either local or remote from a processor system.

These clusters can also serve as subsystems ("print servers") in

office networks.

TEMPEST shielding, if required, will cost $20,000 for the low

volume cluster, $40,000 for the high volume cluster, and $75,000

for the laser point.

9. TEKMINALS AND DESKTOP CUMPUTtKS

The interfacing between user personnel and information handling

systems is provided by a variety of terminals. The cost and

hardware configurations of the more intelligent terminals and

those of desktop computers are already nearly the same, so we

have combined the two product categories. In table 9.1 we have

grouped the terminals and desktop computers into three categories

160
which we see as representative of the major variants. Included

in the cost of each module are allowances for the cost of

interconnect, shared control logic, printers, etc., as they are

required for each category. Apportioning these costs directly to

the module eliminates the need for separate consideration of

cluster support control vs. stand-alone terminal intelligence, so the planner need only multiply the number of terminals needed by

their unit costs. (When a specific system is being configured,

the planner must take the limitations of the selected controller

into account.)

TABLE 9.1

COST ESTIMATES FOR TERMINAL AND

($ thousand)

DESKTOP COMPUTERS

1982 1987 199 2 1997

Data Entry/Basic Display 2. 5-4 . 5 2.0 1.5 1.5

Intel 1 ig en t/Desktop

Computer

10 7 6 5

High Density/Desktop 80 50 40 30

Computer

Three classes of terminals are specified:

The data entry basic display terminal provides local capabilities

of formatting/editing of alphanumeric information in display

and/or printout forms. Internal storage and computing

capabilities are modest. Cost premiums for stand-alone computing

capabilities will eventually disappear, as electronic

intelligence levels of even the basic modules rise.

The intelligent terminal/desktop computer is characterized by a nominal 19-inch CRT with split screen capabilities, multiple font

capabilities, 24 to 36 function keys, 0.5 megabyte of storage and

10 MB disk capacity. It is programmable and is capable of standalone computing. Each set of two terminals has one printer. It

is expected to be complemented over the forecast period with

graphic and voice input response capabilities. Considering the

low cost of this intelligent terminal beyond 1987, it may largely

replace the basic terminal.

The High Density (HD) terminal provides all the capabilities of

the previous two categories plus a high resolution screen

capability in excess of 1,000 lines. There is a printer and a good quality photo-plotter for every set of two terminals. Costs

include modifications for emission control.

161
10. StPARATLLY-PRICtD SUFTWAKt

Users of future computer systems will increasingly obtain

separately-priced software packages for system control, support,

and application functions. The amounts paid will vary widely and

the planner should use any specific information available. In

the absence of such information, table 10.1 provides guidelines

for the payments expected to be typical of an average of

commercial users.

Having derived hardware cost estimates for all of the required

equipment, the planner should refer to table 10.1 for the software cost percentage applicable at the planned installation date.

Multiplying the total hardware cost by the applicable software

cost percentage, the planner will obtain the cost of the

separately-priced software likely to be needed (regardless of

system size) . This cost is on the basis of a one-time charge for

a "paid-up license" for all the software, corresponding to the

purchase basis assumed for the hardware.

This separately-priced software cost estimate does not include

specially contracted software or in-house programming; only

standard commercial products are included.

TABLE 10.1

COST ESTIMATES FOR SEPARATELY-PRICED SOFTWARE

(Paid-up License Basis)

1982 1987 1992 1997

Percent of Total 10 15 20 25

Hardware Cost

11. SYSTtH INTLGKATIUN COST

In addition to the modular costs, additional costs will be incurred for software tailored to the overall system configuration

(e.g., for performance measurement) , cabling, and floors. Table

11.1 shows the estimated allowances that should be made for these

as a percentage of total system cost.

The integration cost factors for terminals and desktop computers

are shown in the first line of table 11.1. Costs of these

devices derived from section 9, plus their system costs, should

be increased by the percentage shown to allow for system

integration.

The integration cost factors for processing systems of four sizes

are shown in the remaining lines of table 11.1. After a planner

has completed the first six steps described in section 2, the

162
estimated cost of a complete processing system will have been

developed. The system will contain one of the four supervisory

and input/output systems described in section 6. The system

cost, plus software cost, should be increased by the factor shown

in the corresponding line of table 11.1 to allow for system

integration

,

TABLE 11.1

Terminals/Desktop

Computers

Small

Med i urn

SYSTEM INTEGRATION COST

(% of system cost)

1982

20

20

15

1987

20

25

20

1992

25

25

20

1997

25

25

20

Large 10 15 15 15

Extra-Large 10 10 10 10

12. HAKDWAKt AND SOFTWAKt MAlNTtNANCt PAYMtMTS TU VtNUUKS

These will rise throughout the period as the software- intensi ty

of all levels of system increases (an increasing use of vendorsupplied system control programs is assumed) . They should be

roughly the same for all systems, as a percentage of acquisition

cost. The estimated annual allowances that should be made for

these are shown in table 12.1.

TABLE 12.1

ESTIMATED ANNUAL HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE MAINTENANCE COST

(% of system cost)

1981 1985 1990 1995

15 18 20 22

163

PAKT V: THt IMPACT UF LAW AND KbbULAllUN

ON FLDtkAL AUTOMATIC DATA PKOCLSSlNb

Prepared by

International Data Corporation

Purchase Order AP5020

Institute for Computer Sciences

and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

165

PKLFACt

In common with most large, private sector organizations, the

Federal government formulates policies which guide the

acquisition and use of automatic data processing equipment. In

government and industry alike, this policy guidance strongly

inf luences how and when new technologies are introduced into the

organization and, within obvious limitations, at what cost. The

policy formulation in the Federal government is, in one sense,

typical of any large, moderately decentralized organization.

That is, broad policy is formulated by central management, while

interpretations of the policy and detailed implementation

practice are the province of the decentralized units.

The Federal government differs from most private sector

organizations in that the central policy formulation comes from a variety of sources: the Congress, the Executive's central

management agencies, and even, on occasion, the Judic iary . As

might be expected, this can lead to some confusion and to some

unintended effects.

This Part, prepared by IDC, describes the current state of

Federal ADP policy, discusses its impact on Federal ADP use, and

draws a set of conclusions. Opinions expressed are those of the

contractor and are not necessarily those of ICST.

1. LEGAL AND KbGULATOKY BACKbKOUNU

This nation of laws looks to the Congress for its legislative

mandates and for the funds to operate the government. Absent

congressional action, the courts, as in communications reform,

may point the public way. Always, Executive action shapes and

tones the thrust of law or justice.

Many do not view the congressional appropriations as laws, but in

recent years the appropriations process has become a vehicle for

legislative action on diverse topics ranging from abortion to

Brooks Act exclusions. Most laws result in regulations by the

Executive Branch of the government. The evolution of laws and

their companion regulations traces the consensus at both ends of

Pennsylvania Avenue. Seldom does any single law or regulation

embody all that may be said on a topic.

The time and method of funds appropriation influence the

executive agencies' method of administration, acquisition, and

accounting. The Constitution precludes the withdrawal of public

funds from the Treasury except pursuant to appropriations made by

law. In addition, the Antidef iciency Act establishes criminal

penalties to assure that funds are not spent in the absence of

sufficient appropriations. Recently, fiscal years have ended

without enactment of specific appropriations or continuing

resolutions. On April 25, 1980, the Attorney General issued a landmark opinion which concluded that, except for activities

167
necessary to achieve an orderly shutdown, government operations

must cease when appropriations lapse without the provision of new

funding. As a result, the House Committee on Rules and Senate

Committee on the Budget have undertaken hearings on improvements

to the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974,

Comptroller General Bowsher has testified to both committees

that

:

1. A biennial budget cycle would be advantageous;

2. Investments in capital or physical assets should

involve longer term decisions on programs and

f und ing

;

3. Greater stability for investment programs (such as

major military weapons programs) is a necessary

ingredient in program efficiency;

4. There should be a reduction of congressional

"decision and detail overload" by focus on broad

policy, such as the basic direction and general

content of programs;

5. The recommendation of the Hoover Commission and

the Commission on Budget Concepts which urged adoption of modern accrual accounting systems that

permit cost-based budgeting should be acted upon.

The Office of Management and Budget (0MB) has indicated a simplification of the President's budget process by reducing the

detail required from agencies by 0MB Circular A-11, "Preparation

and Submission of Budget Estimates."

In addition to the annual appropriations acts which influence the

executive agencies' methods of administration, acquisition, and

accounting, there have been a number of laws which specifically

address information resource management; these are:

1965 Brooks Act

1974 Privacy Act

1975 Freedom of Information Act (streamlined)

1980 Paperwork Reduction Act

1981 Warner Amendment to Defense Authorization Act for

FY 1982

1982 Federal Managers Financial Integrity Act.

168
2. LhblSLATlVL PKUbKAMS

The Brooks Act was superseding legislation* It applied to all

Federal agencies. It gave the General Services Administration

(GSA) exclusive procurement jurisdiction over all general purpose, off-the-shelf, commercially available automatic data

processing equipment (ADPE) , irrespective of configuration or use. The Department of Commerce (Institute for Computer Sciences

and Technology/National Bureau of Standards (ICST/NBS)) was

assigned the ADPE technology assistance and standardization

roles. 0MB ' s Circular A-71, "Responsibility for the Administration and Management of Automatic Data Processing Activities,"

published in March 1965, anticipated the Brooks Act and assigned

executive department responsibilities. The Brooks Act and

Circular A-71 resulted in the creation of unique centralized

management structures and acquisition procedures throughout the

Federal agencies.

As technology advanced, general purpose computing device

architectures and manufacturing techniques, traditional to ADPE,

began to migrate into products marketed by the related fields of

printing, office equipment, test equipment, and communications.

This technology proliferation has progressively disrupted

traditional product marketplaces and their Federal

constituencies because of the emergence of common features and

capabilities in previously unrelated products. Further,

congressional attention to the emerging technological capability

to establish Federal databases on all citizens resulted in the

Privacy Act of 1974. The hearings which led to the Privacy Act

highlighted the unique security risks of automated systems. The

Act prompted 0MB Circular A-108, "Responsibilities for the

Maintenance of Records about Individuals by Federal Agencies" and

Transmittal No. 1 to Circular A-71, "Security of Federal

Automated Systems." From 1974 to 1980 product miniaturization

and mass production reduced equipment price/performance cost. In

the same period, the cost of software and data communications

accelerated so that overall life cycle system costs (hardware and

system software price and other factors) came to be recognized in

the acquisition process.

The Congress addressed the merging of technologies into the

"Information Age" by the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980. The

1980 act recognized "Information Resource Management" (IRM) by

calling for:

1. the 0MB Office of Information and Regulatory

Affairs (OIRA)

;

2. the designation of a senior (IRM) official in each

agency;

3. the development of Federal five-year plans for ADP

and telecommunications needs.

169
Self3om does the appointed senior official, required by the

Paperwork Reduction Act, have exclusive IRM responsibilities or

IRM background. Usually this results in the previously highly

centralized "Brooks Act" functional managers expanding organizational control over additional functions such as communications,

office automation, systems development staffs, libraries, printing, or publications. In some agencies, this organizational

process appears to have resulted in a delegation of IRM

responsibilities without the delegation of commensurate

authority. As discussed later, the Brooks Act role of GSA has

evolved since the Paperwork Reduction Act into more oversight and

less control

.

The 1980 Paperwork Reduction Act also recognized a perceived

degrading of efficient and effective defense management which

could result from central agency involvement with the acquisition

of IRM resources. As a result, the 1980 act excluded from its

purview ADP and telecommunications systems with intelligence and

national security cryptologic, command and control, weapon

system, or mission critical functions. In the following year,

1981, the so-called "Warner Amendment" to the Department of

Defense (DoD) Authorization Act for FY 1982 made substantially

identical exclusions to those in the Paperwork Reduction Act and

applied them to the Brooks Act of 1965. The detailed procedure

needed to implement these two DoD exclusions from central IRM

management continues to evolve between DoD and 0MB.

Within DoD, which received the Warner Amendment exclusions to the

Brooks Act, IRM officials appear to pursue the same fundamental

issues of organizational functional alignment, planning, and the

low cost computer revolution as do their civil agency

counterparts. The agency IRM organizations, including DoD's

Army, Navy, and Air Force, generally plan to streamline their

traditional "Brooks Act" centralization by granting bureaus or

major commands increased autonomy based on review and approval of

ADP and telecommunications plans. The Navy has announced no

final decision, but indicates that it may exercise Warner

Amendment authority to exclude selected activities, such as the

Naval Laboratories, from central ADP planning and acquisition.

The Air Force plans to retain central oversight and use common

management practices for all commercial ADP plans and

acquisitions, irrespective of the applicable procurement laws,

unless the ADP is under the skin (embedded) in a weapon system.

The Army plans to continue one management cycle for commercial

ADP, but it also manages the unique "military computer family"

program from the same Army staff.

It remains to be seen whether or not the DoD Warner Amendment

authorities will accept only "fine tuning" of the centralized

Brooks Act type ADP and telecommunications acquisition process.

The traditional ADP acquisition process is perceived by some as a barrier to the flow of current technology directly into

mainstream mission critical systems.

170
5. ROLE OF THt CENTRAL MANAGtnENT AbENClES

3.1 OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (0MB)

In addition to the 0MB regulations described earlier (i.e.,

Circulars A-11, A-71, and A-108), 0MB has also regulated,

directly or indirectly, the Federal IRM acquisition and

management functions by the circulars outlined below:

A-50 Executive Branch Action on GAO Reports

A-76 Policies for Acquiring Commercial or Industrial

Products and Services Needed by the Government

A-94 Discount Rates to be Used in Evaluating Time

Distributed Costs and Benefits

A-109 Major Systems Acquisitions

A-114 Management of Federal Audio Visual Activities

A-119 Federal Participation in the Development and Use

of Voluntary Standards

A-120 Guidelines for the Use of Consulting Services

A-121 Cost Accounting, Cost Recovery and Interagency

Sharing of Data Processing Facilities

A-123 Internal Control Systems.

Each of these circulars will be referenced later as their

provisions impact IRM management issues.

3.2 OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY (OFPP)

In 1974 Public Law 93-400 established OFPP as a part of OMB in

order to implement the recommendations of the Congressional

Commission on Government Procurement (1970-72). Public Law 96-83

reauthorized OFPP for an additional four years until October

1983. Congress has made it clear that OFPP is to propose a comprehensive approach to a uniform Federal procurement system

without regard to current barriers or statutory requirements.

Presidential Executive Order 12352, Federal Procurement Reforms,

dated March 17, 1982, directed OFPP to resolve conflicting views

among agencies (DoD, GSA, NASA) which currently have regulatory

authority for government-wide or agency unique procurement

regulations. DoD, GSA, and NASA reached joint agreement on

August 2, 1982 to establish a Federal Acquisition Regulation

(FAR) Council for development and maintenance of the FAR. They

are working together to publish a single FAR by July 1, 1983

which is scheduled to be effective October 1, 1983. There are

indications that these FAR schedules for publication and the

effective date will each slip back six months or more. This

171
massive transition of "all" procurement procedures contains many

unresolved issues. As a result ^ it contains the potential to

disrupt "all" Federal acquisitions , particularly high technology^

high dollar value ^ and long system life requirements

.

For

example, unless prompt action is taken with regard to current

contracts, future cost type contract awards may result in the

necessity to maintain two different sets of accounts after the

FAR becomes effective.

In addition, OFPP and GSA agreed on February 26, 1982 (47 Federal

Register 8384) that, due to GSA ' s unique Brooks Act procurement

jurisdiction, GSA would continue to develop the FAR regulations

governing the management, acquisition, and use of Brooks Act ADP

and telecommunications. GSA plans to develop a FAR Part 39

entitled "Automatic Data Processing Equipment Contracting." GSA

will place existing ADP and telecommunications Federal Property

Management Regulation (FPMR) and Federal Procurement Regulation

(FPR) provisions into the FAR structure with suitable formatting

adjustments. Since FAR Part 39 will incorporate the existing

ADP/telecommun icat ions FPMR's and FPR ' s without substantive

change, this FAR issuance may not be published for comments.

The merging of the FPR and FPMR provisions in Part 39 by GSA

means that both management and acquisition (procurement and

contracting) procedures will coexist in one set of regulations.

It is GSA's plan that Part 39 will require ADP planners and ADP

contracting officers to work together. If agencies, particularly

DoD, attempt to assign both FAR Part 39 areas of responsibility

to their contacting officers, some confusion and delay is likely.

If confusion results from FAR Part 39, it will be a cumulative

add-on to the predictable delays arising from implementation of

the overall FAR. It appears that DoD's ADP requirements which

fall under the Warner Amendment exclusions will be free to use

Part 39 procedures or the basic FAR, at the option of the service

conducting the acquisition.

3.3 THE GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (GSA)

GSA elected to exercise its exclusive Brooks Act ADP procurement

authority by drafting unique FPMR's and FPR ' s to cover only those

matters of ADP management and acquisition in which the GSA's

policies differed from the other government-wide and user agency

acquisition policies. Thus, the ADP FPMR and FPR differences are

a subset of the basic procurement regulations which govern all

other aspects of every Federal acquisition, including those for

ADP. The Brooks Act regulations take precedence only where they

differ. GSA has published guidance, however, on 0MB policy

issues such as Circular A-94, "Discount Rates to be Used in

Evaluating Time Distributed Costs and Benefits." The GSA

guidance authorizes an evaluation tilt away from purchase and

toward leasing when the real world of present value discount

rates indicates that such action will result in the lowest

overall cost.

172
GSA has also elected not to do all ADP procurements, or even to

review all ADP acquisition cases. GSA ' s FPR ' s 1-4.1104

establishes blanket procurement authority dollar levels under

which agencies may acquire ADP equipment, software, and

maintenance services without prior GSA approval. For example, at

present ADP acquisition is permitted of up to $300,000 by an

order from a GSA schedule contract, up to $500,000 competitively,

or up to $50^ 000 sole source. There are ind icat ions that GSA

plans to substantially increase these thresholds in the near

future

.

Above the FPR 1-4.1104 blanket procurement threshold,

GSA has created a streamlined (alternate) case-by-case delegation

process by FPR Temporary Regulation 64, March 2, 1982 (47 Federal

Register 8774). This streamlined process builds upon the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980. It places special responsibilities

on the senior IRM official in each agency and provides that GSA

may conduct periodic on-site reviews of user procurement actions

authorized under the streamlined delegation procedure. GSA

states that this simplified process has been successful. The

acceptance by other agencies of GSA's on-site reviews indicates

significant progress by GSA in its government-wide ADP management

role. Many agencies believe GSA has improved understanding of

their problems because of the on-site reviews.

Since the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980, GSA has sought to

establish a joint planning arrangement with several agencies.

The reward was to have been an enlarged form of long-term

delegation. GSA has suspended this attempt due to its conclusion

that meaningful planning activities were not present. GSA is now

considering the expansion of the 1-4.1104 blanket delegation

thresholds for selected agency components which have achieved

satisfactory on-site reviews by GSA. Conversely, GSA is also

considering the reduction of the 1-4.1104 blanket delegation

thresholds for agency components which received an unsatisfactory

on-site review.

GSA's in-house contracting function has performed well in

adapting procedures to permit timely award to the continued

influx of vendors into the ADP market. The FY 1983 number of

multiple award schedule contract (MASC) vendors is up to

approximately 900 contracts—a 20 percent increase from FY 1982.

GSA anticipates there will be 1000 MASC contracts for ADP during

FY 1984. This MASC program will be optimized by GSA through

interagency training for MASC use.

3.4 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND

TECHNOLOGY/NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS (ICST/NBS)

The NBS' Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology (ICST)

mission is to develop -standards for computers and networks, to

provide technical advisory services to government agencies, and

to perform computer and computer networking research. While

ICST's "Brooks Act" mandate is directed toward ADP use within

the Federal government, the agency believes that its mission is

best achieved by ensuring that off-the-shelf products that meet

the government's needs are available. This insurance is obtained

173
by encouraging user-oriented standards development by the

voluntary standards committees. ICST is, therefore, active in

the work of those committees. It has representatives on more

than sixty of these committees and chairs approximately a dozen

of them. Very often ICST provides the only technically expert

representative of computer users on these committees. By

providing technical support to the committees in conjunction with

the support offered by the manufacturers, it can frequently

achieve the definition of standards leading to off-the-shelf

products for government agencies as well as for the private

sector ADP user.

International standardization activity is currently intense in

the program areas of local area networks, high speed networks,

data interchange, and interfaces. ICST, through its technical

leadership, has assisted the American National Standards

Institute (ANSI), Institute of Electrical and Electronic

Engineers (IEEE), and the International Standards Organization

(ISO). It has taken the lead in the development of technical

specifications which are based on U.S. requirements and which are

being accepted internationally as ISO standards.

In the international arena the ICST approach takes the following

steps

:

1. ICST assesses the requirements of the Federal

government and private sector users and of U.S.

computer vendors. This is done through direct

relationships with design teams from the major

agencies, particularly DoD, the major computer

manufacturers, and through U.S. industry associations. These associations include the Network

Users Association and the Association for Data

Communications Users (ADCU) which is composed of

150 corporate ADP users.

2. ICST has been successful in having U.S. requirements accepted by ISO. The acceptance of ICST's

requirements makes it the logical drafter of the

technical specifications. ICST's specifications

then become the draft international proposed

standard

.

3. These specifications are written in English and,

because of the ambiguities and incompleteness of

the language (and most other languages) , products

cannot be developed from those specifications.

ICST has performed extensive research in formal

description techniques which is then applied to the

specifications and which is distributed to well

over 100 companies in the computer industry.

4. Because these standards address new areas of computing and networking technology, there is not an

associated testing methodology. ICST works in the

174
development of such testing methodologies and its

laboratories are now able to test prototype

implementations (which it also develops) for

correctness and performance. These tests will

later be used by industry for self-certification

purposes. ICST has invited industry participation

in the implementation and testing phases of the

process. At this time, over 100 companies have

volunteered their assistance in the program. The

availability of ICST's laboratories for product

testing ensures that the American products not only

conform to the international standards but that the

products work.

5. The final ICST step is a key one. It publishes the

voluntary standard as a Federal Information Processing Standards Publication (FIPS PUB) . The

vendors themselves have been in favor of this

because, at that point, they have a specification

which they know they can implement and which they

know will not be changed capriciously,

ICST also sponsors workshops that enable companies to meet

together, without fear of anti-trust problems, for the purpose of

discussing product development based on these draft proposed

standards. This activity is extremely important if the U.S, is

to maintain the lead over Japanese and European competitors.

ICST predicts that several other program areas, within the next

few years, will be the focus of intense international

standardization activity. They are computer languages, database

management, software quality, and microprocessor-based systems.

ICST plans to position itself to assume the same degree of

international technical leadership in these areas.

While the standards program will continue to be an important part

of ICST's activities, the overall trend has been toward placing

greater e/nphasis on non-mandatory guidelines and ADP management

aids such as technology forecasting and the development of

appropriate cost/benefit methodologies.

3.5 OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (0PM)

The proposed final classification and qualification standards for

government employees in the contracting occupation has completed

a formal "second review." The standards are predicted by user

agencies to result in lowered contracting pay and

professionalism, contrary to the spirit of Presidential Executive

Order 12352. On the basis of an Office of Management and Budget

recommendation, the Cabinet- level Management and Administration

Council recently met to consider the proposed classification

standards for procurement personnel developed by the 0PM. As a result of the meeting, 0PM was directed by the Council's

chairman, Edwin Meese, to hold off the release of any standards.

175
Instead, 0PM must convene an interagency team of higher level 0PM

and agency officials with a strong general management perspective

"to reach a better accommodation of views." The team must strive

to reach an agreement on the issues if possible, and, if not, to

develop a list of issues and suggested options for Council

review, giving particular consideration to "credent ial ism" and

overgrad ing

.

Taken together with the concurrent introduction of the new

Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) , any actual mass reductions

in contracting occupation grades would lead to higher than normal

employee turnover and government-wide delays.

176
A. MAJOR INFORMATION RtSOURCt MANAbtMLNT ISSULS

4.1 COMPETITION/COMPATIBILITY/CONVERSION

GSA's FPR's call for "maximum practicable competition" for

requirements stated in the least restrictive terms possible

without compromising the government's economy or efficiency.

Award should be made to that vendor which offers the "lowest

overall cost," price and other factors considered. On the cost

side, users may include all identifiable and quantifiable costs

which are directly related to the acquisition and use of the

system. The cost of conducting the procurement and

administrative costs are to be included. Taken literally this

guidance makes requirements (taken in their broadest overall

sense) the driving force. The degree of competition in a given

case (ranging from sole source to the GSA-preferred fully

competitive functional specifications) must be geared to the

practicality of achieving competition while attaining the

government's economy and efficiency.

GSA recognizes the value of user investments in software and data

files. FPR 1-4.1109-12 states that "compatibility limited

requirements tend to restrict competition and, therefore, shall

not be made a mandatory requirement solely for reasons of economy

and efficiency." This means that GSA expects software conversion

studies to be made as required by 1-4.1109-13. The conversion

study of any significant software library (significant in

comparison to the cost of equipment to be acquired) normally will

lead to a reasoned management judgment that it is impractical to

consider conversion when a compatible alternative exists.

Thus, when there is a significant investment in software and

data, the cost, risk and delay of conversion to a new

architecture will be undertaken only for software which has no

compatible migration path or when other "requirements" dictate

that decision. This conversion policy has resulted in a de facto

Federal "market share" for installed architectures so long as

they continue to grow. New requirements appear to permit the

unlimited competition of functional specifications, but in this

case also there exist patterns of apparent user affinity for

"application" architectures.

4.2 OBSOLESCENCE

The General Accounting Office (GAO) and GSA have recognized the

loss of economy, efficiency, and effectiveness of obsolete

computer systems. Obsolete systems can degrade operations,

application development, and maintenance even though they may

continue to perform up to their original design specification.

There should be a case-by-case analysis, however, before

replacement since technologically obsolete computers may still

provide the least overall cost, price and other factors

considered. GSA will approve "Technology Updates" with

compatible equipment systems in order to preserve essential

operations or to obtain the lowest overall cost. The "Technology

177
Update" replacement system is not to exceed 150 percent of capacity of the system being replaced and the system life is to be

based on a replacement schedule (2 to 8 years) which should

permit "maximum practical competition." GSA approved "Technology

Updates" for economic obsolescence must result in overall economy

based on a life cycle cost analysis. There is evidence that GSA

is considering a new economic replacement program which would not

contain the system life and capacity restrictions of the current

"Technology Update" delegations.

The relative obsolescence of the Federal computer inventory by

comparison with the age of U.S. computers in use by private

commercial users remains a matter of debate. The first issue is

the accuracy of GSA's ADP Management Information System (MIS)

government-wide inventory which is used as the basis for those

d iscussions

.

GSA recently requested DoD to explore and explain the status of

407 central processing units (CPU's) which the ADP MIS reports

were installed in DoD prior to 1966. The Office of the Secretary

of Defense (OSD) , Comptroller, has found the status of the 407

CPU's to be as follows:

ADP MIS Report Replaced

CPU's Installed or

Pr ior to 1966 Excessed

Air Force 161 59

Army 80 23

Navy 147 100

Defense Logistics Agency 7 2

Defense Mapping Agency 12_ 12^

407 196

This ADP MIS inaccuracy dilutes the degree of actual

obsolescence compared with that reported. It also highlights the

need for a Federal inventory system which contains incentives for

accurate reporting and processing.

The second issue in the obsolescence discussions is the requirement to maintain realism in the comparisons. Some studies have

lumped all CPU's together by year, irrespective of the relative

power or manufacturer of the units. Tables ^-12* provide a comparison of Federal government and non-gover n.nent CPU's by date

of installation, i.e., prior to 1976, prior to 1979 (including

prior to 1976), 1979, 1980, 1981, and 1982. Table 1 describes

the International Data Corporation (IDC) computer size class

definitions and representative model assignments. The data in

tables 2-12 reflect the CPU totals, by manufacturer, by computer

IDC class size. The data also reflect the percent of CPU's by

computer class size, installed in each time period.

*A11 tables are placed in Appendix B.

178
The data in tables 2-12 utilize the current GSA ADP MIS data for

the Federal installed base. It has not been updated with the

recent DoD rev iew results . Tables 2-12 indicate that in Group A

(large) size classes the Federal inventory installed prior to

1979 is proportionately older than non-government systems in

Group A, There are relatively small numbers in the current

Federal GSA ADP MIS inventory. If they are tempered by the

approximately 50 percent inventory error in the DoD sample, they

cease to be a meaningful indicator of Federal computer

obsolescence. The age of Group B (minis) and Group C (small

business) systems indicate that at this time, for those computer

classes, there is no greater government rate of obsolescence than

in private industry,

4.3 SECURITY/PRIVACY

In addition to the security and privacy provisions of 0MB

Circulars A-71 and A-108 presented earlier in connection with the

Privacy Act of 1974, the current threat of computer fraud, waste,

and abuse has resulted in additional law and regulation. As a result of a series of acts from 1977 through 1980, all Executive

departments have new offices of Inspector General (IG).

The IG ' s have no program responsibility but conduct ana supervise

audits and investigations relating to the programs and

operations. The IG ' s monitor compliance with 0MB Circular A-50,

"Executive Branch Action of GAO Reports." These new IG offices

were complemented in 1982 by the Federal Managers' Financial

Integrity Act. The 1982 act requires annual program evaluations

of the adequacy of systems (normally automated) for internal

accounting and administrative control by each Executive agency.

These evaluations are to be conducted under GAO standards and 0MB

guidelines. The act calls for personal accountability for any

false or misleading information given during tne system

evaluations. 0MB Circular A-123, "Internal Control Systems,"

addresses these concerns.

The computer security requirements of GSA's 1-4.1109-20 and FPMR

101-35,17 address the traditional forms of automation and,

therefore, do not fully consider the security issues produced by

the flood of low-cost computer devices into the office. Office

automation introduces the threat of privacy or mission security

breaches by many employees. It will result in growing security

related problems and a management reaction. As a result, 0PM

will receive unprecedented requests for security clearance of

individuals. Use of the data encryption standard and personal

identification techniques will accelerate. Suddenly, everyone

must be trained in secur i ty . 4.4 0MB CIRCULAR A-121, COST ACCOUNTING, COST RECOVERY AND

INTERAGENCY SHARING OF DATA PROCESSING FACILITIES

The government-wide implementation of A-121 has not been

evaluated recently. The realism of its provisions, particularly

those which call for the capitalization of software, has been

179
questioned. Today, it faces an uncertain future. It is reported

that the Assistant Secretaries for Management Group will formally

request 0MB to withdraw A-121. If that should occur, GSA may be

requested to publish A-121-type guidelines.

By contrast, many of the emerging IRM managers believe that the

true economics expressed by cost accounting and cost recovery are

the only "common language" to be spoken between the frustrated

users and providers of information (resources) . IRM managers

question how a meaningful five-year plan can be drafted as

required by the Paperwork Reduction Act if it is not linked to

the national priorities expressed in the President's budget and

congressional appropriations. GAP and the Congress are also

cal 1 ing for program by program accounting of what has been

ach ieved with"~t"he dollars spent , not just for an accounting of

how much was spent .

4.5 LOW-COST COMPUTING (MICROCOMPUTERS)

The 1965 Brooks Act was forward looking legislation. The Act's

legislative history recognized the accelerating pace of

technology and assigned to 0MB and GSA the task of determining,

from time to time, which systems were then to be considered

general purpose, commercially available ADP and, therefore,

subject to its mandates. This essential f lexibil ity has been

difficult for GSA to maintain . Merging technology has blurred not only traditional vendor

product manufacturing and marketing practices, but also

traditional Federal functional constituencies, both of which

resist redefinition of ADP. This has been particularly true in

the so-called "office automation" area. User frustration with

all centralized automation support, whether or not associated

with the Brooks Act, has led to the massive acquisition of lowdollar value devices. Frequently employees have voluntarily

bought low cost systems at their own personal expense. These

home computers, personal computers, desktop computers, standalone

word processors, and smart typewriters have at least temporarily

revolutionized the traditional organizational focus of user

system development from top down to bottom up. The resulting

threat to security and the integrity of corporate procedures and

databases is just being appreciated, not solved.

Likewise, there is an about face in the selection approach to

low-cost systems (equipment). The traditional, centralized

Brooks Act system selection approach by user agencies has

remained heavily hardware oriented in spite of the GAO and GSA

policies to the contrary. These policies encourage, if not

direct, that major consideration be given to user software and

technical requirements in addition to the price of the equipment.

By contrast, the users and ADP professionals agree that the

acquisition of low-cost computing should be driven by first

selecting the needed software application packages and,

thereafter, selecting compatible operating systems and hardware.

180
GSA attempts to define low-cost general purpose, commercially

available systems and software as Brooks Act within the framework

of the Federal catalog and item classification system operated by

the Defense Logistics Support Agency (DLSA) . GSA ' s classification attempts have not kept pace with the movement of technology

and product application. The result has been a confusing blend

of GSA acquisition regulations and multiple award schedule

contracts which tend to destabilize both vendor market approaches

and user agency attempts to manage through procurement control.

To date, GSA ' s in-house contract programs have focused more on

low-cost hardware systems than on software packages for use on

them. GSA is implementing plans (June, 1983) for a contractoroperated "computer store" which could offer contractual sources

for software and hardware, plus user advice and integration

services. GSA also plans to publish a catalog of low-cost

computer systems and software packages plus evaluation of the

user friendliness of the software packages. Prior Federal

programs designed to publish relative evaluations of commercial

products have generally been withdrawn.

The user is clearly "in charge" of low-cost automation at this

time. Now that the low-cost genie is out of the bottle, most IRM

management is scrambling to meet user demands. The ADP

professionals are threatened by loss of control, and most realize

it. Ultimately an embrace between agency central control

(plans/budgets) and users must occur. The Army plans to

capitalize on user experience by picking the user created flowers

and burning the weeds.

The Congress and agency headquarters will demand to know what is

going on. These demands will soon lead to "inventories" of lowcost devices and software. GSA ' s draft changes to the

government-wide ADP Management Information System (MIS) states

that no perpetual inventory of low-cost devices will be

established. GSA proposes authority to demand such inventories

with a 60-day notice period.

4.6 STANDARDS

ICST plans to continue to work through the voluntary standards

development process to ensure that a broad consensus is achieved

as a basis for Federal standards. This is in agreement with 0MB

Circular A-119, entitled "Federal Participation in the

Development and Use of Voluntary Standards." 0MB states that no

future Federal ADP standard will be approved unless it is cost

justified. This concept is generally in line with Circular A-71,

but indicates a more vigorous test will be applied.

The Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) are enforced

through the GSA procurement regulations at the time of

acquisition as are the Federal Telecommunications Standards (FEDSTD) . The Paperwork Reduction Act provision for a standards

enforcement program, particularly software standards, awaits

further implementation in its application to software system

181
development and maintenance. FIPS Publications (FIPS PUBs) are

also used to publish ADP management guidelines.

DoD's draft order 5000. 5X proposed Army, Navy, and Air Force

standards based on an instruction set architecture.* The DoD

objective was to evolve a family of DoD-wide standards. This

proposal drew sharp criticism from segments of industry and

Congress. The House Government Operations Committee has

requested hard numbers to justify this approach. DoD is in the

process of responding to Congress, but it is unlikely that any

quantitative data can resolve the political uncertainties of this

issue. Most likely, the proposal will remain a policy issue to

be resolved in the appropriations process. For example, the

Army's Military Computer Family (MCF) which embodies the 5000. 5X

concept could resolve some, if not all, of Army's problems with

proliferation of unique hardware and software. The Army's MCF is

proceeding with reduced funding during FY 1983. Three vendors

are in competition. They are GE (teamed with TRW) , RCA, and

Raytheon. FY 1984 funding will be required in order to proceed

with the MCF program. It is impossible to determine whether the

controversy is being caused by the Army's operational policy to

avoid Ada recompiles on the battlefield for back up

compatibility, or if it is but a symptom of manufacturer

unhappiness with the diminishing market for the traditional

mainframe product lines.

4.7 AGENCY IRM ORGANIZATIONS

0MB Bulletin 81-21 provided agencies with guidance on designation

of their senior officials, but provided sufficient flexibility

for each agency to organize as it deemed appropriate. This

permitted each agency to establish an IRM organization which was

responsive to both the needs of the agency and the requirements

of the Paperwork Reduction Act. 0MB ' s report, "Improving

Government Information Resources Management, March 1982, stated

that the primary responsibility for information resources

management rests with the head of each department and agency.

* Mi 1 i tary Computers in Transition: S tandards and S trategy , Louise B. Becker, Congressional Research Service, the Library

of Congress, February 3, 1982: "A computer instruction set

architecture can be described as the rules and procedures by

which the hardware executes instructions or computer programs

(software) . (Source: conversations with Peter Fonash (DoD) and

William Diet (Carnegie Mellon University) .) It also may be

defined as the structure of a computer that a programmer needs to

know to write time- independent machine language that will run

correctly on the computer, (Source: The Department of Defense.)

These definitions, although not universally accepted, are

included here to provide a basic understanding of the concept."

182
0MB plans, when necessary and possible, to provide IRM policy

guidance and assistance tailored to the needs of the individual

agency. 0MB plans to publish additional government-wide IRM

policies and regulations only when it determines that there is

overwhelming evidence that such policies are necessary and will

be effective. 0MB experience indicates that general management

policies are difficult to enforce, particularly if there is no

effective feedback on agency implementation.

Voice and data telecommunications are IRM functions which are

being considered for reorganization. Many civil agencies have

merged them into the new IRM organization. DoD services appear

to view telecommunications in a more traditional sense of being

mission critical and, with the exception of the Air Force, may

not integrate it with other IRM functions in the near future.

Where telecommunications has been merged with other IRM

functions, most automation managers are struck by the size and

cost of the voice communications program compared to data costs.

They believe that GSA was unprepared for the substantial Federal

Telecommunications System (FTS) cost increase brought on by the

end of the Telpak tariff. These same IRM managers state that the

surge in FTS costs has also caught the attention of their user

functional managers. There are agency telecommunications cost

studies underway. Early indications are for a further

substantial centrex* cost increase within the next two years

under the court ordered divestiture of the Bell Operating

Companies and as a result of AT&T's creation of an unregulated

subsidiary, American Bell Inc., by order of the Federal

Communications Commission. In this environment, GSA can expect

agency requests to permit prompt recompet i t ion of agency PBX

installations and intercity digital communications outside the

FTS, pending its common user digital availability. Some cost

studies indicate that in local area networks, in addition to the

reduction in voice costs with a competitively acquired digital

PBX, data communications costs will also be reduced

substantially.

Recent announcements from DoD communications personnel indicate

that they also are entering the information management era. DoD

communications planners now consider how large the communications

pipe should be for the required communications, not just how big

a demand is initially expressed by users.

* The centrex (central/exchange) concept is a complete

communications system at a "package" rate. The centrex packages

offer PABX features, plus additional features which give the

stations the characteristics of both an individual line and a PABX line. Centrex-CO switching equipment is located in the

central office while Centrex-CU switching equipment is located on

the customer premises.

183
5. CONCLUSIUN AMI) KLCUhhLNDAT IONS

1. If GSA's Brooks Act role ever was a significant obstacle

in the acquisition and management of automation, few agencies

find it to be an obstacle today.

2. Congressional oversight is and will continue to be a fact of

life for all IRM executives. It will result in political

uncertainty for Executive agencies through the IRM cycle from

concept to implementation. The 1982 IRM targets of the House

Committee on Government Operations and its subcommittees.

Attachment A, could just as easily have been initiated by an

aggressive chairman in either house of the Congress. A

mature view of our political system should appreciate that

fact, even if without joy. Management objectives should be

uncertainty-tolerant (contain fall-back alternatives)

.

3. The entire 0MB Circular A-109 ("Major Systems Acquisitions")

thesis for competitive prototype demonstration contracts,

such as the Air Force's Phase IV program ( f ly-before-youbuy) , will be examined. There is a growing tendency to

permit well-informed managers to take a properly calculated

risk

.

4. Traditionally, control of ADP has resided centrally with ADP

professionals — a situation which has often frustrated the

end-user. Low cost automation is user-controlled — a situation which has caused many ADP professionals to feel

threatened. The Department of Transportation's IRM project

to "downsize" major systems applications to low-cost technology can serve as a pilot test "bridge" between the

frustrated user and the threatened ADP professional. Its

progress should be evaluated for interagency application.

5. The fundamental revolution which is underway emphasizes the

following issues:

a. The blending of traditional organizational segments

which will integrate the converging technology;

b. the major significance of telecommunications costs

in IRM management;

c. the benefits and threats of bottom up system development;

d. the urgent need to distinguish between the management required for end-user computing which only

facilitates a personal product and that which interacts with corporate databases or procedures.

184
Appendix A

Investigations from Act iviti es of ThiE House Lommi ttee

ON boVERNMENT UPERATIONS . KEPORT //9/-994, DeC , i^h'l

INVESTIGATIONS RESULTING IN FORMAL REPORTS

1. Continued Failure of Departments and Agencies to Take

Effective Action on Audit Findings , House Report No. 97-

279, October 20, 1981, Eleventh Report by the Committee on

Government Operations.

2. Inadequate Control Over Government Material Furni shed to

Contractors , House Report No. 97-381, December 10, 1981,

Fourteenth Report by the Committee on Government Operations.

3. NORAD Computer Systems are Dangerously Obsolete, House

Report No. 97-449, March 8, 1982, Twenty-third Report by the

Committee on Government Operations.

4. Mismanagement of SSA's Computer Systems Threatens Social

Security Programs , House Report No. 97-900, September 30,

1982, Twenty-third Report by the Committee on Government

Operations

.

5. Statutory Offices of Inspector General (Leadership and Resources), House Report No. 97-211, July 30, 1981, Sixth

Report by the Committee on Government Operations, Together

with Additional Views.

6. Air Force Control Computer Failures, House Report No. 97-

137, June 11, 1981, Third Report by the Committee on

Government Operations.

7. The Nine-Digit ZIP Code Investment: More Digits, Less

Savings, House Report No. 97-397, December 11, 1981,

Nineteenth Report by the Committee on Government Operations.

8. Direct Broadcast Satel I ites : International Representation

and Domestic Regulation, House Report No. 97-730, August

12, 1982, twenty-eighth Report by the Committee on Government Operations.

9. Security Classif icat ion Policy and Executive Order 12256 , House Report No. 97-731, August 12, 1982, Twenty-ninth

Report by the Committee on Government Operations.

10. Postal Service Electronic Mail: The Price Isn't Right,

House Report No. 97-919, October 1, 1982, Forty-first

Report by the Committee on Government Operations.

185
Appendix A

OTHER INVESTIGATIONS

1. Implementation of the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980

(Public Law 96-511) .

2. Review of Army's Automated Facilities Engineer Cost Accounting System.

3. Review of the Proposal for a Uniform Federal Procurement

System,

4. Review of Discrepancies between GAO and the Summary Reports

by the President's Council on Integrity and Efficiency of

the Activities of Inspectors General,

5. Review of the Administration's Actions to Reduce Year end

Spending Abuses.

6. Department of Energy Plans to Contract Out the Operations of

the Forrestal Message Center and ADP Services.

7. Use of Internal Revenue Services Resources and Taxpayer Information for Draft Registration and Welfare Enforcement

purposes

.

8. Major problems with Small Business Administration's Section

8(a) Program for Disadvantaged Small Businesses.

9. Fraud, Waste, and Abuse at the General Services

Administration.

10. Air Traffic Controllers' Strike—System Status in the Aftermath .

11. International Telecommunications and Information Policy:

Management and Resources.

12. Federal Communications Commission Oversight.

13. Oversight of the National Archives and Records Service.

186
Appendix B

International Data Corporation's

Computer Class Size Definitions and

CPU Totals by Class Size

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Appendix B

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188
Appendix B

TABLE 2 BURROUGHS CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

1 O wo X X X 3 / D S X -7 / ^ 1 Q7 Q X 7 / 7

1 Q fi a X 7 O 10 1 Q P 1 X 7 O J. 1 Q D "7 J. 7 O / Unknown

A— / r ea . (jOv t

.

4 50% 50% 50%

Non-Govt

.

X1 CIV % X J % lit X X % o o It^ X1 4 St ff ^ X1 f%4 o ^

1X &T> A—

o

red. Govt, 13 46% 100% — - — Non-Govt. 46% ^ •! ^ A-5 Fed. Govt. 23 17% 52% 13% 22% 13%

Non-Govt

.

wo ^ X / % J o ^ 1X 6u %% X1 7 ^ X17/ 4« <}4 1X 4% A-4 Fed. Govt. 129 81% 89% 4% 5% 1% 1%

Non-Govt. 795 14% 35% 14% 15% 22% 11% 2%

A-3 Fed. Govt. 2 100%

Non-Govt

.

363 29% 51% 20% 14% 10% 5%

A-2 Fed. Govt. 62 3% 16% 3% 12% 68%

Non-Govt. 1,082 10% 24% 20% 26% 21% 8% 2%

C Fed. Govt. 7 57% 86% 14%

Non-Govt. 1,208 20% 44% 12% 22% 17% 5% 1%

Grand Total 4, 556

TABLE 3 CDC CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-7 Fed. Govt. 72 78% 94% 6%

Non-Govt

.

81 56% 75% 12% li 4% 4% 5%

A-6 Fed. Govt. 63 81% 94% 3% 3%

Non-Govt

.

121 42% 61% 6% 13% 15% 5%

A-5 Fed. Govt. 60 92% 95% 3% 2%

Non-Govt

.

100 26% 34% 15% 24% 22% 4% 1%

A-4 Fed. Govt. 22 91% 100%

Non-Govt. 52 25% 67% 19% 6% 6% 2%

B-3 Fed. Govt. 17 82% 94% 6%

Non-Govt

.

65 66% 89% 8% 3%

Grand Total 766

189
Appendix B

TABLE 4 DATA GENERAL CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

B-4 Fed. Govt. 39 79% 94% 3% - 3% - -

Vt \J 11 \j\J v u • 108 7% 7% 6% 2% 41% 40% 4%

B-3 Fed. Govt. 102 35% 77% 11% 8% 5% - - Non-Govt

.

1, 478 22% 53% 17% 15% 10% 5% 1%

B-2 Fed. Govt. CIO bio C A ^ b4 -6 O O 4. /% 1% 1%

Non-Govt

.

2, 398 35% 62% 11% 12% 13% 3% 1%

B-1 Fed. Govt. 2 50% 50%

Non-Govt. 175 15% 29% 13% 26% 26% 5% 1%

C Fed. Govt,

Non-Govt. 287 9% 22% 22% 22% 28% 6%

Grand Total 5, 208

TABLE 5

DEC CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-6 Fed. Govt. 1 100%

Non-Govt. 87 20% 64% 10% 14% 6% 6% 1%

A-5 Fed. Govt.

Nori-Govt

.

163 23% 45% 14% 16% 14% 8% 4%

A-4 Fed. Govt. 42 48% 74% 7% 19%

Non-Govt. 250 43% 80% 5% 7% 4% 3% 1%

A-3 Fed. Govt. 4 25% 50% 25%

Non-Govt. 68 6% 16% 37% 24% 12% 10% 1%

B-4 Fed. Govt. 29 31% 21% 41% 3% 4%

Non-Govt. 1,090 15% 20% 7% 16% 26% 23% 7%

B-3 Fed. Govt. 352 36% 78% 11% 6% 4% 1%

Non-Govt. 3,095 24% 56% 13% 13% 13% 5% 1%

B-2 Fed. Govt. 2, 539 59% 87% 6% 4% 2% 1%

Non-Govt. 7,026 52% 77% 9% 7% 4% 2% 1%

B-1 Fed. Gov.. 171 1% 50% 20% 16% 12% 3%

Non-Govt

,

1,892 28% 52% 9% 15% 18% 6% 1%

C Fed. Govt. 37 3% 100%

Non-Govt. 373 17% 50% 15% 13% 16% 5% 1%

Grand Total 17,238

190
Appendix B

TABLE 6

HONEYWELL CPO'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-7 Fed. Govt. 6 17% 84 % 16%

Non-Govt

.

26 27% 62% 8% 8% 15% 8% -

A-6 Fed. Govt. 41 66% 98% 2%

Non-Govt

.

229 27% 47% 16% 16% 17% 4% -

A-5 Fed. Govt. 10 60% 90% 10%

Non-Govt. 187 37% 75% 7% 7% 7% 3% 1%

A-4 Fed. Govt. 94 68% 80% 16% 2% 2%

Non-Govt

.

779 38% 63% 12% 10% 9% 5% 1%

A-3 Fed. Govt. 29 97% 97% 3%

Non-Govt

.

773 33% 76% 13% 7% 3% 1%

A-2 Fed. Govt.

Non-Govt. 44 82% 93% 2% 5%

B-3 Fed. Govt.

Non-Govt

.

288 22% 39% 14% 17% 18% 12% 1%

B-2 Fed. Govt. 285 81% 96% 1% 2% 1%

Non-Govt. 652 35% 45% 13% 16% 18% 5% 3%

C Fed. Govt. 4 25% 50% 25%

Non-Govt

.

1 100%

Grand Total 3, 477

191
Appendix B

TABLE 7 H-P CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

B-3 Fed. Govt. 31 10% 39% 16% 23% 19% 3%

Non-Govt

.

2, 178 11% 33% 16% 19% 18% 12% 2%

B-2 Fed. Govt. 468 50% 76% 10% 9% 5%

Non-Govt

.

883 49% 67% 10% 11% 8% 3% 1%

B-1 Fed. Govt. 1 100%

Non-Govt. 242 52% 90% 3% 3% 4%

C Fed. Govt. 3 33% 67%

Non-Govt

.

108 10% 17% 14% 30% 30% 8% 2%

Grand Total 3,917

TABLE 8 IBM CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-7 Fed. Govt. 87 52% 73% 5% 10% 11% 1%

Non-Govt

.

1,974 13% 29% 19% 18% 16% 14% 4%

A-6 Fed. Govt. 109 71% 87% 7% 4% 2%

Non-Govt

.

2, 209 18% 43% 26% 14% 8% 5% 4%

A-5 Fed. Govt. 77 69% 83% 4% 9% 4%

Non-Govt. 1,946 13% 36% 9% 12% 22% 18% 3%

A-4 Fed. Govt. 139 67% 76% 4% 10% 9% 1%

Non-Govt

.

5, 224 16% 28% 5% 19% 32% 12% 4%

A-3 Fed. Govt. 91 63% 76% 12% 8% 4%

Non-Govt

.

5, 183 22% 50% 9% 19% 15% 5% 2%

A-2 Fed. Govt. 143 91% 99% 1%

Non-Govt

.

4, 142 48% 55% 2% 7% 21% 10% 5%

B-2 Fed. Govt. 25 28% 52% 4% 32% 12%

Non-Govt

.

1, 562 13% 27% 19% 24% 22% 7% 1%

C Fed. Govt. 16 13% 64% 13% 19% 6%

Non-Govt

.

9, 678 9% 32% 23% 26% 14% 4% 1%

Grand Total 32,623

192
Appendix B

TABLE 9 IBM PCMS CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-7 Fed. Govt. 7 14% 43% 57%

Non-Govt

.

306 21% 42% 12% 21% 14% 10% 1%

A-6 Fed. Govt. 15 67% 19% 7% 7%

Non-Govt. 202 9% 39% 25% 18% 12% 4% 2%

A-5 Fed, Govt.

Non-Govt. 59 2% 20% 22% 27% 17% 14%

A>4 Fed. Govt.

Non-Govt

.

218 11% 13% 7% 26% 38% 16%

Grand Total 807

TABLE 10

NCR CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-5 Fed. Govt.

Non-Govt

.

68 38% 56% 12% 18% 12% 1% 1%

A-4 Fed. Govt. 6 83% 100%

Non-Govt. 417 27% 54% 10% 16% 10% 8% 2%

A-3 Fed. Govt. 1 100%

Non-Govt

.

1, 169 25% 46% 14% 23% 13% 4%

A-2 Fed. Govt. 1 100%

Non-Govt

.

312 21% 30% 18% 28% 19% 5%

C Fed. Govt. 11 27% 73%

Non-Govt

.

675 13% 41% 15% 12% 16% 13% 2%

Grand Total 2, 661

193
Appendix B

TABLE 11

ONIVAC CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

A-7 L. • WW V W • 42 45% 60% 17% 21% 2%

Non-Govt

.

59 63% 85% 2% 8% 3% 2%

A-6 Fec3 Govt 62 84% 92% 6% 2%

Non-Govt. 216 30% 45% 19% 18% 13% 4% 1%

A-5 Pe>d Govt 38 68% 82% 13% 5%

Non-Govt. 384 15% 30% 11% 22% 27% 7% 3%

A-4 Ff^d Govt 79 92% 97% 3%

Non-Govt

.

299 42% 63% 17% 10% 6% 3% 1%

A-3 Fed - Gov t

123 66% 88% 11% 1%

Non-Govt

.

674 26% 76% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1%

A-2 Fed. Govt. 31 87% 100%

Non-Govt. 284 48% 51% 2% 2% 29% 14% 2%

B-3 Fed. Govt. 70 30% 68% 22% 5% 5%

Non-Govt. 235 37% 61% 11% 20% 4% 3% 1%

B-2 Fed. Govt. 107 79% 98% 2%

Non-Govt

.

263 90% 96% 2% 2%

B-1 Fed. Govt. 4 100%

Non-Govt

.

4 25% 50% 25%

C Fed. Govt. 8 63% 87% 13%

Non-Govt. 144 8% 42% 34% 15% 7% 1%

Grand Total 3, 152

TABLE 12

WANG CPU'S BY YEAR INSTALLED

Percent of Total

Group

CPU

Total <1976 <1979 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unknown

C Fed. Govt. 161 30% 81% 11% 6% 2%

Non-Govt

.

1, 530 22% 43% 13% 18% 17% 8% 1%

Grand Total 1, 691

194
PAKT VI: MANAGINlj tND-USbK CUhPUTlNti

Prepared by

Aurora Associates, Inc.

Contract Number NB805BACA0405

Institute for Computer Sciences

and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

195

PREFACt

Following publ icat ion of the 1981 technology forecast, a poll of

the Federal agencies elicited several requests to address, in

this edition, management aspects of end-user computing. Fart VI

responds to those request s , The material contained in this Fart

builds on' recent work done at the Environmental Protection Agency

by EPA's Harvey Karch. The opinions presented in this Part,

however, are those of the contractor and not necessarily those of

either ICST or EPA.

End-user computing has, in a sense, "snuck up" on us, presenting

both the public and private sectors with some completely

unfamiliar situations. Researchers and managers in both sectors

are only now beginning to recognize and describe the dynamics of

those situations. This Part examines end-user computing from the

organizational aspect, with part icular emphasis on the management

of change.

There are several critical end-user computing issues which are

not addressed in this Part. Many of those issues are currently

under study by ICST, GSA, 0MB and others. OMB's Reform '88

initiative, for instance, is considering "action" proposals in

these — as well as other -- ADP issue areas which would help to

define more clearly the appropriate roles of the central management agencies.

The host of issues involved in the interact ion of microcomputers

with larger machines are only touched on in this Part. That

aspect of distributed processing is a candidate subject for

examination in the next update of the technology forecast; telecommunication, from both technical and management perspectives,

is another candidate. We would appreciate further suggestions

for topics to be covered in subsequent editions.

Other publications relating to end-user computing are currently

being prepared by ICST. The ICST Special Publication,

M i crocomput ers

:

A Rev i ew of Federa

I

Agency Expert ence is now

available from GPO.

1. INTRODUCTION

Preceding Parts of this report have examined future information

processing from three perspectives: the technological changes

which are likely to occur through the 1990 's; cost estimates of

these future systems; and, with respect to the Federal government, the legal and regulatory environment in which these

systems must operate. Part VI deals with information processing

from still another perspective — that of the management issues

which are associated with the new technologies, especially those

related to the introduction and widespread use of end-user

computing in the Federal workplace.

197
End-user computing refers to a relationship between people and

technology, in which individuals, located at their own work

stations, interact directly with computers to process their own

information. The term is deliberately very broad. It includes

new technologies of office automation and personal computing

which enable individuals to perform such functions as word

processing and data analysis, thereby using and manipulating

information directly and independently.

It is increasingly obvious that end-user computing is a rapidly

growing phenomenon that will have a dramatic impact on the office

environment, including that within the Federal government. The

purpose of Part VI is to take a closer look at this phenomenon,

specifically

:

o to identify major issues regarding management in an

end-user computing environment;

o to examine these issues in terms of their likely

impact on the Federal workplace; and,

o to suggest strategies to facilitate the transition

to that environment.

The remainder of this Part consists of six chapters:

Chapter 2 defines the nature of the problem and examines the

concept of information resource management.

^ Chapter 3 looks at the economic implications of end-user

. computing; focuses on two important aspects of the Federal

government context which are related to and affected by end-user

computing; identifies general management issues; and presents a candidate list of specific questions which a Federal agency might

pose to itself in the process of implementing the new

technologies.

Chapter 4 reviews the status of end-user computing in the private

sector.

Chapter 5 reviews the status of end-user computing in the Federal

government, examining both the roles and leadership approaches of

the central management agencies and the approach and progress

which some operating agencies have made to date.

Chapter 6 discusses principles of managing change and suggests

ways to minimize the resistance to change.

Chapter 7 presents conclusions about the management aspects of

end-user computing and suggests ways for the Federal government

to approach the problem and to facilitate the transition.

A list of major references is provided following chapter 7,

identifying source material which was used in preparing this Part

of the document.

198
2. THt NATUKt UF THt HKOBLLM

2.1 END-USER COMPUTING WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF INFORMATION

RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

While this Part of the report deals specifically with end-user

computing, the basic principles of Information Resource Management (IRM) should be kept in mind since end-user computing is a particular area of focus within that larger concept. IRM is a management perspective that has been developing for many years.

As an approach to managing the handling of information within an

organization, it aims to improve both the efficiency of the

systems which process the information and the effectiveness of

the ways in which the information is actually used.

In the IRM framework, information is explicitly acknowledged to

be an asset of an organization and a high-cost resource requiring

specifically focussed managerial attention. In the broadest

sense of the term:

o Information resources include an organization's

information and data, as well as the systems which

relate to all aspects of handling the information,

such as data processing, office automation, records

management, and library services,

o Management deals with the policies and procedures

which an organization utilizes to oversee these resources and administer the information collection,

processing and dissemination functions.

In many ways, IRM is a logical outgrowth of management information system concepts which have long been a part of the ADP

environment. However, while IRM may have partly evolved from

that tradition, managing information is not the same as managing

data processing technology. The IRM environment of the 80 ' s is

different from the ADP environment of the 60 ' s and 70 ' s in two

fundamental ways. These differences are at the root of the

significant management challenge posed by end-user computing:

o People are more expensive than technology. In the

past, data processing hardware cost millions of

dollars and required huge investments in money,

space and facilities. Now, microcomputers are

available at a fraction of the cost of one year of

personnel time and are small enough to sit on an

individual desk. Customized software can cost many

times the price of the machine.

o The new technology is increasingly user-friendly.

Data processing specialists are less necessary than

they were in the past for retrieving and analyzing

information. More and more users will interface

directly with their own data.

199
As the Federal government considers how to cope with those

differences, it would do well to put them in the context of IRM.

2.2 MANAGING CHANGE: THE BASIC PROBLEM CONCERNING END-USER

COMPUTING

The essence of the management problem with respect to end-user

computing, especially in the short term, is that of managing

change. What is changing is the information handling environment: that set of policies and procedures, roles and responsibilities, which characterize the way offices use information to

perform their work.

A transition is being made from an environment in which information is collected, processed, and distributed by ADP specialists

for use by others, to one in which the users themselves interact

directly with their own information. This is not merely a question of introducing faster typewriters, replacing mechanical

adding machines with electronic calculators, or even upgrading a computer mainframe installation from, say, an IBM 7090 to a system 370. The transition is not merely one of improved speed

or efficiency in the usual sense of those words. Rather, it is a qualitative transition, involving serious changes in the patterns

of work which characterize most of the white collar world and

which will have impact on the most basic office relationships:

between people and technology; between people and information;

and between people and other people.

To formulate a meaningful and effective managerial response, it

is necessary to be aware of what these changes will entail.

Those in charge of the transition process need to understand the

management issues which they will face, and the characteristics

of the workplace in which the changes will occur. Managers need

to know what the work patterns are now and what they are likely

to be in the future. Equally important, since the way the

transition process is handled will be a critical factor in

determining whether it is a positive or disruptive experience,

managers need some insight into the dynamics of the change

process itself.

Thus, with respect to the management of end-user computing in the

Federal government, what is necessary is a conscious, planned,

process to enable Federal government managers to exploit the new

technologies in ways which will maximize the efficiency, effectiveness, and overall health of their agencies. Accomplishing

this requires that the following questions be addressed: [1]

o Where are we?

o Where do we want to be?

o How do we get from where we are to where we want to be?

200
3. hANAbtMLNT ISSULS

3.1 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF END-USER COMPUTING

End-user computing is sometimes referred to as "low cost technology". Generally, what is meant is that small, desk-top,

"personal" computers and accompanying packaged software are inexpensive compared to large, centrally operated, mainframe

installations. Moreover, these systems, which cost only a few

thousand dollars, can be used virtually from the first day, by

people with no data processing experience whatsoever, and have

the memory and capacity of large computers, which only a few

years ago cost millions of dollars, and still require large

staffs and specialized programming to utilize.

Unfortunately, that comparison is misleading because it is

incomplete. The fact is, the total cost of any system includes

much more than the costs of the hardware and software. There are

at least three categories of expense which are of great significance to any organization: the aggregate cost of the

technological investment; the cost of the personnel time

necessary to utilize that investment; and the opportunity cost

to the organization incurred by utilizing the investment. In

order to understand the economic implications of widespread use

of end-user computing, a relevant point of comparison is the

telephone

.

The telephone was the first and still remains the most familiar

piece of user- f r iendly technology. It is an input/output information-handling device; the cost of each individual instrument is

low: well under $100 in most cases.

What is not low are other categories of telephone-related

expenses: e.g., the expense of sending messages along the multimillion mile network and the cost of the time spent by workers

who use the telephone system. In fact, use of the telephone

consumes a vast amount of the on-the-job time of many office

workers. Thus, it isn't the cost of each individual instrument

that is significant; rather it is the totality of the impact that

the telephone has on the working styles and use of time of the

office personnel, particularly those in professional and

managerial positions.

The telephone system exists in its current size and complexity

because, over the years, numerous judgments and decisions have

been made which fostered the growth of the system. Society's

economic and social values encouraged and supported this kind of

technological development. Elaborate, sophisticated communications which non- technical people are able to utilize have always

been considered desirable, as much for qual ity-of-life reasons as

for purposes of efficiency, effectiveness and productivity improvement. End-user computing is a natural product of this

development history.

201
However, viewed from this perspective, end-user computing is far

from low cost. While each individual microcomputer may be

cheap, the aggregate amount of the investment is huge. And, as

the number of small computers in use grows, the cost of personnel

time spent using those machines, including professional and managerial time, will grow accordingly. Moreover, the additional

factor of opportunity cost—the time spent doing analysis or word

processing on one's "own" computer (work that in the past was

done by ADP specialists or secretarial staff) could be used to do

other tasks.

It is true that not all the time spent using microcomputers is

incremental. Micros are tools which people should be able to

utilize to do their regular work better. Thus, writers may

compose their copy directly on a word processor and executives

can use decision support systems to help them select appropriate

alternatives. Still, the power of the technology often defines

the scope of the work (Is there more or less paper in offices

since the invention of the Xerox?) . The availability of the

technology can create its own demand, particularly for such

things as customized software and elaborately formatted

documents.

Finally, especially in the case of the Federal government, there

is the additional cost of oversight. Government procurement

regulations tend to be complex, and even if they are simplified

vis-a-vis the acquisition of microcomputers and similar

technology, there will still be costs associated with those

acquisitions.

Similar factors comprise the total cost of traditional ADP

systems. However, although the cost of the hardware was high

many millions of dollars—much of that is sunk cost, the investment having already been made. Now the big expenses are often

those of software development, operations, and maintenance and

the expense of large numbers of specialized data processing

personnel to develop, utilize and modify existing systems. The

opportunity cost question also applies. Time spent patching and

running old, sometimes inefficient, or even obsolete systems

cannot be used to meet new requirements and respond to growing

needs. This is a major cause of the user frustration, a common

sentiment among non-DP personnel. There are the other costs as

well: space and utilities, for example.

Much as the telephone grew in the complexity and sophistication

of its network, we expect similar growth related to end-user

computing. We are already seeing the need for interfaces between

microcomputers and other micros, and between micros, minis and

large central systems. Hence, when all the costs of development,

support, and maintenance of an end-user computing environment are

taken into account, the cost of the desk-top unit itself is the

least significant component of the total.

202
This is not to suggest that no more investment in large mainframe systems will be made. These systems will certainly be

around for quite a while, although they will tend to be used for

the narrower range of tasks for which they are extremely

efficient, scientific computing and those large batch processing

systems especially suited to central control, for example. Part

of the management challenge is to strike a balance between

utilizing old systems, enhancing them in many cases, and

converting others to an end-user focus. Many of the biggest

savings in administrative streamlining have already been realized

because the early development of large ADP systems was clerically

and administratively oriented. The new end-user technology

focusses on a different aspect of office work— that which is more

related to professional analysis and managerial decisionmaking.

In these areas, work products are much less tangible, and costeffectiveness and productivity are far more difficult to measure.

Thus, economic issues regarding the new technology are more those

of resource management than simple cost cutting. Ultimately,

decisions about the use of the new technology will be more a question of reallocating resources than simply saving dollars.

3.2 THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CONTEXT

3,2,1 The Paperwork Reduct ion Act

In terms of information resource management, the Paperwork

Reduction Act (PRA) of 1980 has had a major impact on the Federal

government. The purposes of the Act are to minimize the Federal

paperwork burden on the public; to minimize the cost to the

Federal government of collecting, maintaining, using, and

disseminating information; to maximize the usefulness of the

information; and to coordinate Federal information policies and

practices. Among the areas covered are information collection

requests directed to the public; Federal statistical activities;

records management activites; privacy of records; interagency

sharing of information; and the acquisition and use of ADP and

telecommunications technology. The scope of the PRA covers

virtually all aspects of end-user computer use and technology.

Among the provisions of the PRA, the following are of particular

significance to the management of end-user computing:

o Each agency must designate a senior official, who

reports directly to the head of the agency, to

carry out the agency's responsibilities under the

Act

.

o The Office of Management and Budget is at the top

of the Federal organizational hierarchy to manage

Federal information resources.

The PRA has had the effect of raising the level of awareness of

many Federal managers as to the importance of IRM and the value

of agency resources that are involved in collecting, processing.

203
and disseminating information. But, there are problems too. The

PRA emphasizes central consolidation and management of information; yet the GAO has observed that it may be desirable that IRM

policy and oversight functions be separate from the direct management of agency computer and related operat ions .

[ 2 ] Agencies

need to consider this point when setting up their internal IRM

structures. The decentralized nature of end-user computing will

also make central control difficult. Problems of redundancy and

quality of information, two important areas of PRA concern, are

not likely to be easily addressed through management approaches

that emphasize strong central control.

Finally, while the PRA greatly strengthens the role of 0MB in

terms of Federal information resources oversight, 0MB, in turn,

has prepared little guidance to the agencies for implementing

the Act's provisions. Thus, great variation exists among Federal

agencies in the nature and effectiveness of their approach to IRM

and PRA compliance.

3,2.2 Federal Management Roles

The responsibility for managing Federal infor.nation resources

rests in a number of different positions in the Federal workplace. Figure 3.1 identifies key Federal management positions,

with respect to end-user computing and summarizes their corresponding roles and responsibi 1 i ties .

[ 3

]

3.3 MICROPROCESSING ISSUES

This section describes the major management issues related to

end-user computing in the Federal government. In a conceptual

paper prepared for the Department of Defense, Arthur Young and

Company highlighted the following six management issues

especially related to microprocessing . [4

]

3.3.1 Control of Acquisit ion and Use

The issue of control begins with the fundamental question of

whether control over the acquisition and use of microcomputer

systems is desirable, or whether it will serve only to obstruct

the initiative of managers to find innovative, cost-effective

applications for the new technology. If control is desirable,

the most appropriate level for control needs to be identified.

Ultimately, some degree of control is necessary to ensure

compatibility of resources and to promote sharing through networking or integration with mainframe systems and to ensure

compliance with data security and privacy laws and with

applicable Federal procurement regulations and the PRA.

204
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3.3.2 The Role of Microcomputers in Relat ion to Mainframes and

Mini comput ers

ADP professionals will need to develop expertise in the process

of identifying which functions are most appropriately handled on

a mainframe, a minicomputer or a microcomputer. For example,

options for micros include using them as standalone processors

and as remote terminals to provide decentralized access to

centralized systems. In addition to calling for considerable

technical expertise, the clarification of micro roles will

require a senior management perspective on organizational and

personnel issues.

3.3.3 Application Areas and Sequence for Introduction

Microcomputers have numerous potential applications, from

enhancing word processing to supporting management decisionmaking. The management issue is in identifying where the systems

can be used most effectively and determining the sequence for

introducing the applications. A period of experimentation and use

of prototype installations may be useful.

3.3.4 Pace for Introduction and Integration

I Too rapid a pace involving a large number of applications over a broad range of user groups could cause failures, widespread

disillusionment, and implementation of incompatible systems. On

the other hand, an extremely slow pace could cause dissatisfaction among users who are eager to install the systems immediately

and could cause a delay in achieving higher degrees of costeffectiveness. Here again, the selection of pilot sites may be

useful.

3.3.5 Roles and Responsibilities of Users, ADP, and Word Processing Professionals

The development of new roles and responsibilities is perhaps the

most demanding management issue, as the traditional division of

duties changes with the introduction of the new technology. In

addition, there is a critical need to identify changing organizational structure requirements, to define and assign responsibilities for activities as they relate to microcomputers. These

activities include planning; acquisition; application system

development; system operation; hardware and software maintenance;

training; and compliance reviews. The definition and assignment

of these responsibilities may have significant impacts on organizational structures, job descriptions, hiring goals and training

needs for technical and user personnel.

3.3.6 Support Structure

An important management question is how will microcomputer

systems be acquired, maintained, and operated? One issue is

whether a central acquisition support structure can foster increased compatibility by acquiring these units at volume

207
discounts, without "locking out" new products and and possibly

"locking in" to older technology. The support question also

includes issues relating to software development and maintenance

techniques and practices for large quantities of microcomputers.

With the above issues in mind, as the Federal agencies begin to

formulate their end-user computing policies, they should assemble

a checklist of questions to be addressed. An exemplar list

f ol lows

.

o What management decisions are to be made, using

information processed by micros.

o In an end-user computing environment, who would

"own" the information on which institutional decisions are based?

o How much leeway should program managers have regarding the acquisition and use of microcomputers?

- o In the future, professional staff are likely to

have more direct access to the information they

need and use. How will this affect supervisory

patterns? How will this affect the roles of the

traditional ADP staff?

o Should we maintain an in-house capability to train

our staff in the new technologies?

o Should we require some type of computer training

for all staff? For certain categories of staff?

o What tasks should we automate and what tasks are

better done manually?

o If our agency were to establish a central support

group for end-users, how should it be funded?

Should end-users be required to use the group or

should they be able to use services outside the

agency?

208
4. ENU-UStR COMPUTING IN THb HKIVATb StCTUK

4.1 CORPORATE SURVEY

Occasional articles in the business and trade literature recount

how well the private sector is utilizing the new technology.

Readers * are often left with the impression that private

industries have made an easy transition to an end-user computing

environment and that they are rising to the technological and

management challenge with an orderly, well planned, rational

approach. The results of a corporate survey, based on replies

from 250 respondents, published in Datamation in November 1982

provides some interesting information about use of "personal

business computers" (PBC's) in private sector compan ies .

[ 5

]

Following are some highlights from that survey:

o Most companies do not know with absolute certainty

the actual number of PBC's they have paid for, let

alone the users or uses to which they are applied.

o Only eight percent of the corporate respondents

indicated that firm guidelines governing the acquisition of PBC's were in place. Only 24 percent

reported that informal rules were being applied toward the purchase on an experimental basis, leaving

about 67 percent with no guidelines or procedures

in place. Of the latter, only 36 percent stated

intentions to implement guidelines.

o With respect to approval authority, nearly 55 percent stated that the DP department was involved in

the cycle, and in about one- third of the companies,

the DP department had absolute approval or veto

power over PBC acquisition. User departments

approved acquisitions in 43 percent of the firms

while purchasing departments had such authority in

only 14 percent.

o The survey indicated a degree of confusion about

setting policies, as well as a lack of planning,

strategic or otherwise, in the implementation of

PBC's as part of an overall information system.

4.2 CENTRAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS SUPPORT

Some companies have identified and taken specific steps to manage

the new technology. One approach, in particular, may hold some

lessons for the Federal government. It is the establishment of a central group, within an organization, to provide information

systems support to all levels of users throughout the

organization. The structure seems to provide a mechanism for an organization to maintain central control, while still providing

non-ADP personnel with the advice and help they require to

utilize the new technologies.

209
As part of its work for the Department of Defense on the management of microcomputer technology, Arthur Young and Company

studied nine large firms. [6] The companies had several

characteristics that are similar to those of at least some

government agencies: most are organized into autonomous service

units, with their own management hierarchies; their work force

encompasses most labor categories, including executives,

managers, professionals, technicians and clerical workers; and

the companies are strongly dependent on information processing to

accomplish their work.

The study presented some interesting conclusions concerning

management of the new technology:

o "A closer working relationship between end-users

and data processing professionals will be required

in order to plan for and use microcomputer technology successfully.

o There is an increased need for data processing

support services to be provided outside the traditional data processing organization, directly

within functional business segments of companies.

o An increasing concern over compatibility of information and software will replace the former concern

with hardware standardization.

o Rapid advances in microcomputer technology and the

frequency of new product offerings on the market

have generated a requirement for large organizations to establish a method and structure for

continuous monitoring and assessment of advanced

technology

.

o Through the continuous assessment process, equipment and software products of particular importance

for the organization can be selected and processed

before users have recognized the need. The products are then readily available for installation

when the need is expressed.

o There is a significant increase in the need for

education of end-users and data processing professionals in the application and management of the

new, low cost technology."

The vehicle that the nine companies used to address these issues

and to manage their new technologies is the central information

systems support group. Because this concept appears to hold

considerable potential and may provide a generic model that can

be adapted by government agencies, it is explored here in some

deta i 1

.

210
The central support groups o£ the nine firms revealed both

similarities and differences in terms of their management

philosophies as well as their modes of operation. (This information is summarized in table 4.1.) All of the central systems

support groups, for example, provide the following services.

o monitoring technology trends,

o developing micro expertise,

o disseminating technology information,

o assisting users in system selection,

o trouble- shooting — operation and maintenance,

o evaluating hardware vendors,

o evaluating software packages, and

o negotiating volume procurements.

On the other hand, the firms differ with regard to other

services provided by their central support groups. The

differences may be functions of the specific workplace demands in

each firm, its over-all management philosophy or a combination of

the two. The following services are provided by a subset of the

nine firms.

o designing/delivering training (3 of the 9),

o building compatible architecture (3 of the 9)

,

o establishing a central demonstration room (2 of the 9)

,

o offering standard application systems (1 of the 9) , and

o establishing an information center (none at present).

The concept of the central information systems support group

continues to evolve, with several of the companies indicating

their intention to expand the range of services they provide to

users

.

There are a number of functions that are necessary to the management, procurement, and use of ADP hardware and software, and the

companies differed considerably in where they placed responsibility for each — with the central group, the end-user, or

shared between the two. These functions include:

o long-range planning,

o requirements analysis,

o hardware selection.

211
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o software package selection.

o procurement negotiation,

o application system development.

o instal lat ion

,

o training.

o operations

,

o maintenance, and

o post- instal lat ion review.

Table 4.1 illustrates that some of these functions, such as longrange planning and post- instal lat ion review, are almost always

performed by the support group; others, such as requirements

analysis and operations, commonly fall on the end-user. Still

others, such as applications systems development, may frequently

be shared between the central support group and the user. The

range of approaches used by private industry to manage the new

technology suggests that government policy-makers and managers

need to give careful consideration to the various nuances of

potential management strategies and make a deliberate selection

from the range of possibilities.

In conclusion, the study looks toward an "integrated management

organization" designed to optimize the productivity of the work

force through information processing and to identify management

requirements in four key areas:

o Education : With the advent of microcomputers,

there is a need for education at all levels in the

organization, from clerical workers through

executives, and across all functional groups,

including both end-users and data processing

professionals

.

o Information Management : The importance of managing

information grows as technology advances into

micros and hierarchical networks. Unless attention

is paid to the information management issue,

companies can expect widespread information

discrepancies, costly duplication and noncomparability.

o Hardware - Softwa r e Compatibility : When micros ace

first introduced, the real need is for compatibility of information, not systems. However, in

moving toward networks of micros with other micros

and with minis and mainframes, system compatibility

becomes critical.

213
o Communication and Interaction among Users and Data

Processing Professionals ; The creation of incentives for users to communicate with the information

processing management structure becomes critical

with micros. Management needs to know what users

are doing, whether they have acquired systems and

how they are using the systems, because this information may have a significant influence on the

development of overall plans for automation

throughout the company.

4.3 SUMMARY

It is evident that the private sector is aware of and feeling the

impact of the new technological developments in information and

data handling. While their responses may be uneven, companies

giving thought to the problem seem to agree on two important

points: management control can be better realized by emphasizing

incentives over authority; and support for end-users will be a crucial factor in establishing and maintaining effective

information management. As a result of this awareness, many

organizations are paying a great deal of attention to the process

by which they implement the new technologies.

The process is considered so important that one large corporation, a leader in the ADP and information field, has developed a comprehensive system to help organizations evaluate their information needs and put in place appropriate systems to meet those

needs. [7] While the general planning concepts are not unique to

this company's approach, the process does, both explicitly and

implicitly, acknowledge some important principles:

o Data is a fundamental organizational resource, as

important to an organization as personnel, cash or

equipment

.

o Both management commitment and user involvement are

essential. The planning process stresses a "topdown" approach to gaining the commitment and to

studying the business, and a "bottom-up" approach

to implementation.

The most important objective of the process is to develop an

information systems plan that both meets an organization's longand short-term information needs, and is a consistent and

integral part of the organization's overall business plan.

214
5. tND-USLR COMPUTlNti IN THt FbULKAL (dUVLRNRLNT

^.1 THE CENTRAL MANAGEMENT AGENCIES

Management in the Federal government occurs at two levels: govfetnment wide, and at the level of individual executive branch

agencies. At the government-wide level, there are five agencies

with direct or indirect responsibilities for IRM and the management of related technologies: the Office of Management and

Budget (0MB); the General Services Administration (GSA) ; the

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology (ICST); the Office

Of Personnel Management (0PM) ; and the General Accounting Office

(GAO) . The last, while not a management agency per se , is included here because of its influence on Federal government

nhanagement

.

the rapid growth in the new technologies caught these agencies

Relatively unprepared, just as it did most other public and

private sector managers. A good example is the current situation

\l*ith respect to the procurement of microcomputers, where there is

minimal management, control, or attempt at standardization. Because micros are so inexpensive, they fall below GSA '

s

thresholds for procurement control. As a result, no mechanism

exists for ascertaining how many micros there are in government

agencies, where they are, how they are used, or whether they are

dost-ef fective

.

However, there are now definite indications that these agencies

ate catching up. Most are addressing the problem and have begun

to formulate approaches and take actions to deal with the kinds

of management issues identified in chapter 3. This section

describes some ways in which the central agencies are attempting

to provide leadership, guidance, and support in the new technological environment . [8

]

5*1.1 The Office of Management and Budget (0MB)

bMB is responsible for providing overall executive branch leadership and coordination, and for formulating fiscal and policy

Controls related to the acquisition and management of Federal ADP

iSystems. Under the Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) , 0MB is

designated as the focal point for management responsibility of

all Federal information resources.

*tt> date, 0MB has provided relatively little guidance in terms of

IRM, In remarks made at the Information Resources Management

Conference, in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, in September 1982, 0MB ' s Afidrew Usher described that agency's role as follows. [9]

215
"0MB has made a conscious decision to adopt an implementation

strategy based on the following perceptions:

1. The primary responsibility for implementation must

rest with the head of each agency and the senior

official designated by the agency for that purpose.

2. 0MB would be primarily interested in results and

not process. Each agency is generally free to

choose its own methods as long as it achieves the

objectives of the [Paperwork Reduction] Act.

3, The early emphasis would be on review responsibilities. This would permit the agency senior official

and 0MB to assess the current effectiveness with

which Federal information resources are being managed and identify high priority problem areas

whether agency-unique or government-wide.

4, 0MB would issue government-wide policy and procedures where needed but only after there was a base

of experience under the Act indicating clearly what

the policy and procedures should be. However, the

primary emphasis would be on the establishment of

incentives which would encourage better management

of information resources and serve as an alternative to traditional policy directives and

regulations .

Consistent with the above policy, 0MB has conducted PRA oversight

mainly by exercising clearance control over agency information

collection requests, approval of the annual information collection budget, and conducting periodic reviews of selected

agencies' information activities. In addition, 0MB sponsors a Departmental Level Working Group on IRM policy, which usually

meets monthly.

5,1,2 The General Services Administrat ion (GSA)

GSA has principal responsibility for developing regulations and

guidance on procurement, implementation, and management of office

automation systems. GSA tries to promote cost effective management and use of Federal information systems and technology by

developing performance standards; helping agencies design and

manage records and information management programs; and providing

training. GSA also develops government-wide policy and plans for

ADP and telecommunications equipment; establishes sources of

supply for equipment and services for all Federal agencies and

prescribes acquisition procedures promoting competition and

economy; provides some technical assistance and has operated

clearinghouse activities. The Paperwork Reduction Act basically

reinforces GSA's operational responsibilities in information

management, while shifting policy-making responsibility for

records management to 0MB.

216
GSA's response to IRM has been different than that of 0MB, in

that it proposes to take an active role to provide guidance and

support. With respect to microprocessing, two recent proposals

are especially pertinent:

o In a draft report. Managing End-Vser Computing In

The Federal Government , February 1, 1983, GSA presents a Managed Innovation Program, which it describes as "a transitional program proposed to meet

the needs of the government until the full implications of End User computing technologies are

known"

.

o GSA is planning a computer store which will be

operational in the near future. Run much like a commercial retail establishment where Federal

agencies will be able to purchase brand name microcomputers and packaged software.

5.1.3 The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology (ICST)

ICST is responsible for developing uniform Federal ADP standards

and for providing scientific and technological advisory services

to help Federal agencies acquire and use computer technology.

ICST strives to promote hardware and software compatibility and

interconnectedness by developing standards to achieve these goals

in such technological areas as network protocols, formatting, and

language

.

Like GSA, ICST is taking an active approach to end-user computing

issues. In addition to publishing technology forecasts (such as

this document) , and guidelines on microcomputer management and

use, ICST is also taking the lead in developing and promoting the

concept of information resource centers for Federal agencies.

These centers would be end-user oriented support operations,

which would provide information, technical assistance, and

training to those individuals who will be utilizing computer

technology, but who are not data processing professionals. The

centers would address more than microprocessing; an important

function would be to provide objective advice to end-users to

help them identify and evaluate alternative ways to satisfy their

requirements. ICST will be holding workshops on Information

Resource Centers (the first, in June 1983) and is considering

setting up a prototype Center at the Institute.

5.1.4 The Office of Personnel Management (0PM)

0PM is responsible for developing position classification

standards and career tracks for executive branch staff and for

providing or sponsoring government-wide training programs. 0PM

also deals with human factors issues.

0PM has been looking at the application of office automation as a way of improving Federal workforce performance and has recently

begun to provide agency-specific training and technical

217
assistance on office automation. It is also considering creating

a new IRM job series and examining standards for computer

specialists. However, 0PM does not plan, in the near future, to

address the problem of blurred personnel classification standards

such as those for clerk/secretary/analyst job descriptions.

5.1.5 General Accounting Office (GAO)

GAO serves as an oversight agency for Congress. It directs its

activities toward determining how effectively Executive Branch

agencies carry out the laws and how effectively they use their

appropriated funds.

With respect to IRM, GAO has found that, for the most part, the

central management agencies have provided insufficient guidance,

stating that this has been an important factor in the uneven

progress that Executive Branch agencies have made in implementing

the PRA, An exception is ICST whose "issuance in 1980 of a management guide specifically addressing integrated office

automation systems has made a significant written contribution in

guidance" , [8 ] GAO also concluded that an important reason for

the absence of leadership is that "a clear delineation of responsibilities and coordination among [the agencies] is lacking", [8]

The GAO has also reached some preliminary conclusions about the

use of small computers in the Federal government. In a memo to

David Stockman, dated March 8, 1983, L,D, Campbell states that

"The Agencies' lack of planning and management has created a high

potential for waste, duplication of effort, and general

inefficient use of these resources ."[ 10 ] The memo goes on to

recommend several ways to improve the situation, including more

active roles by OMB, GSA and ICST,

5.1.6 Summary

The above brief descriptions of the central management agencies

make it clear that in terms of end-user computing the agencies'

mandates make them very well suited to provide leadership in

several important areas. Some of these are procurement of hardware and software; determination of performance and compatibility

standards for hardware and software; justification of need;

requirements analyses; software applications; information storage

requirements, data security requirements, data quality control;

budgeting; procurement of ADP support through grants and

contracts; and personnel classification, job descriptions, and

career path criteria.

It is significant that the above list corresponds very closely to

the issues described in chapters 2 and 3.

What this means is the Federal government, at the central management level, has in place the necessary structure and mechanisms

to address the important IRM and technological issues it faces,

and to develop an appropriate response.

218
5.2 EXECUTIVE BRANCH AGENCIES

5.2.1 Ov erv iew

The lack of comprehensive, coordinated central direction or

guidance at the government-wide level has created problems for

the individual executive branch agencies and has led to

considerable variation in the way they have responded to the

issues. Not all of that variation is attributable to the

differing needs of the agencies. For instance, while there is a requirement that each agency appoint an information resource

manager, there is a good deal of confusion as to what this

concept embodies — in terms of both the background and function

of the individual who fills it.

There is an awareness among managers in many government agencies

that the new technology can present problems as well as

opportunities unless managed properly. However, agencies are not

making uniform progress in addressing the pertinent issues. At

the one extreme are agencies that apparently will be surprised

by the influx of microcomputers. At the other extreme are

agencies that have undertaken management-oriented studies and/or

have formulated systematic approaches or plans to address the new

technology. Some agencies have elaborate organizational charts,

reflecting the new IRM emphasis. However, it is not clear how,

or even whether, the day-to-day management of information

resources has, in fact, changed. Conversations with the staff of

some of these agencies sometimes leave the impression that the

management structure is more apparent than real, that the new

organizational structure exists mainly "on paper", and that real

organizational change is very slow in evolving. What does seem

clear, though, is that in those cases where meaningful change has

occured, to a great extent that change can be attributed to a single individual —a person who is both highly motivated and in a position to make a difference.

5.2.2 How User Agencies Are Addressing Sma,l I Computer

I ssues [10]

The GAO considers the management of small computers (mini and

microcomputers) to be a serious potential problem. The GAO '

s

view confirms points made by others in both the public and

private sectors: that there has been a huge increase in the

acquisition and use of small computers; that this trend is

expected to continue; and that the management issues associated

with the new technology are different from those pertaining to

traditional ADP.

The GAO describes an "unmanaged system which can only worsen

unless informed and systematic direction is introduced toward

219
some predetermined agency goals". According to the GAO, the

situation in the agencies is as follows,

o Little formal policy and guidance exist that relate

to the unique aspects of justifying, acquiring, installing, and operating small computers.

o Agencies are not considering life-cycle costs when

acquiring small computers and fail to realize the

significance of the software costs.

o The accuracy of the data on small computers is receiving little or no verification.

o Some agencies do not know how many and what kind of

small computers they have because they lack formal

approval and accountability procedures. Little

effort is being made to standardize hardware for

compatibil ity

.

o Few agencies have software and documentation standards for small computers.

o Agencies do not know what applications are on their

small computers, which contributes to redundancy.

o Agencies have not justified the cost of purchasing

small computers,

o Agencies have few procedures to provide security

and backup to prevent loss of critical data.

o Agencies do not know to what extent their small

computers are being utilized.

o Individual agencies are doing redundant studies of

small computer issues.

o Few formal software libraries have been established

to facilitate software exchange between user

organ i za t ions . 5.2.3 Examples of Agency Approaches

By virtue of compliance with the PRA, most Executive Branch

agencies are involved in some stage of IRM planning or

implementation. Some have focussed on organizational change;

others have tried to put in place some kind of support system to

aid their staff in utilizing small computers. Below are some

examples of how Federal agencies are approaching these management

i ssues

.

220
5.2.3.1 U.S. Geological Survey

In this agency, minicomputers are physically clustered in groups,

which enhances security and lessens much of the burden of

providing support for them. Microcomputers, on the other hand,

are dispersed, but centralized support and maintenance is

provided for them also. Services provided by the central systems

group are billed, and the group is completely reimbursable.

While the central group recommends make and model to users

procuring equipment, it does not establish actual requirements.

However, it does provide free and low-cost software, which tends

to result in de facto standardization; it also supports users by

maintaining systems which they design. The central group

actively discourages languages unique to any particular machine,

but it makes no attempt to restrict higher-level languages.

Policy making is carried out through a Planning Council, composed

of high-level managers who have the authority to formulate and

implement policy.

5.2.3.2 Smithsonian Institution

The Smithsonian Office of Information Resource Management was

established in April 1982 to identify the Institution's information priority needs and take action to meet those needs in an

integrated and cost effective manner. Late in that year, the

Institution utilized a consultant to review its policies with

respect to electronic data processing and to identify objectives

and policy decisions necessary for the Office to implement IRM.

The result was a formal policy and planning document on the

management of information resources .[ 1 1 ] As evidence of its

commitment to carry out IRM, the Smithsonian hired the consultant

as Assistant to the Director, Office of Information Resource

Management, to implement the recommendations presented in the

report

.

The Smithsonian's approach is a comprehensive one which addresses

most of the issues of concern. It also recognizes the potential

of local area networks of microcomputers and attempts to maximize

the benefits of communicating systems and shared databases.

The Smithsonian's information resource management strategy is

designed around six issues:

o centralized management of decentralized information

handling capabilities,

o institutional support for information resource expenditures ,

o planned acquisition of information handling capabil ities

,

o educating Smithsonian staff for an automated

future

,

221
o a networking philosophy: institutional perspective

on needs and resource, and

o reorganization of its Office of Information Resources Management (OIRM) along functional lines.

The Smithsonian is preparing a five-year plan for implementing

IRM, Current areas of emphasis deal with data management:

implications, data modeling, applications analysis and planning

in terms of management of data. An update of the original report

is planned for the Fall of 1983.

5.2.3.3 U.S. Department of Agriculture

The USDA Information Technology Center opened in the Spring qX

1983 . [12] The facility offers information and training on tl^e

latest in applied computer technology, and provides USD/y

employees with the opportunity to obtain hands-on experience on

selected microcomputer systems. The Center has a threefold

purpose:

o to increase awareness of how small computer technology can enhance productivity;

o to promote greater self-sufficiency of users in the

evaluation and application of computers; and,

o to facilitate department-wide information and resource sharing.

Operating expenses for the Center are covered by the USDA Office

of Information Resources Management, as part of its technical

services responsibilities,

5.2.3.4 U.S. Department of the Interior

The Department of the Interior was one of the first Federal

agencies to implement the IRM concept, when in January 1980 it

established the Office of Information Resources Management under

the Assistant Secretary for Policy, Budget and Administration.

Establishment of this Office involved the integration of several

organizational entities encompassing "functional areas" such as

ADP, telecommunications, library and information services, papers

work, and management analysis. Also included in this Office is; the Program Development Division with responsibility for policy

development and strategic planning. The staff of this Division

is purposely drawn from the various information technology areas

to provide an interdisciplinary IRM per spec t i ve ,

[ 1 3

]

Interior has utilized a structured planning approach which

utilizes four levels of planning detail. Ranging from general to

specific, the formal IRM plan includes goals, subplans, major

products/functional plans, and tasks. This system is applied at

both the Department and Bureau level.

222
In the Department of the Interior, each Bureau plans for the

management of its own functional areas, using its own 'language',

to meet its own mission, and generally without regard to sharing

common resources within the Department. The Department-wide IRM

plan is intended to serve as a translation table between Bureau

plans and to provide a comprehensive organizational bridge of IRM

issues. Within this organizational structure, all Bureau

information-related functional plans can be brought together

without losing their identity. They can be compared to one

another, and opportunities for resource sharing and/or other

joint information-related efforts will be more apparent.

Interior has also identified three "interested parties", which

although not mutually exclusive, represent different perspectives

towards information and information resource management. They

are the information user, management, and the information

handling resources areas. Goals at the department-wide level are

arranged in three groups, to support each of the "parties".

A complete description of the Department's plan is available from

NTIS. It is a three volume report which includes an Executive

Summary, a plan overview and discussion of the IRM environment,

and a description of functional plans. The documents may be

purchased either separately or as a set.

5.2.3.5 AFFIRM

AFFIRM is the acronym for the Association For Federal Information

Resources Management. It is a membership association, not an

agency, but it is included here because it is serving as a focal

point for Federal IRM managers to address IRM and related technological issues. [14]

AFFIRM functions mainly as a vehicle for networking and information exchange. The objective of the Association is to improve

the management of the information systems and resources of the

Federal government. Its scope of interest includes virtually all

aspects of IRM policies and processes including ADP, data

communication, paperwork management, reports management, micrographics, word processing, publication and printing management,

etc. AFFIRM' s current major activities include the hosting of a monthly luncheon meeting, with guest speakers, and the

publication of a monthly newsletter.

223
6. MANAbING CHAN6t

6.1 OVERVIEW

The preceding chapters in Part VI have examined the impact of

end-user computing. The major management issues have been

identified and discussed; the Federal context has been described;

and the status of end-user computing in both the private sector

and the Federal government has been reviewed. Going back to the

statement of the problem in chapter 2, the preceding chapters

have dealt with "Where are we?" and have begun to imply some

answers to "Where do we want to be?".

This chapter looks at the latter question from another

perspective—that of the process of managing the transition to an

end-user computing environment in the real-world context of the

Federal government. First, general organizational factors which

need to be considered are outlined. Second, some suggestions are

presented as to how the change process might be facilitated.

Going back again to the original problem statement, this section

also begins to answer the question "How do we get from where we

are to where we want to be?". [15]

6.2 EXAMINING THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT

Organizations have personalities, characteristic ways of

approaching their missions and carrying out their activities. In

determining the most effective way to facilitate the transition

to an end-user computing environment, managers need to understand

how their organizations work, in terms of several key factors:

planning styles; power and leadership; interpersonal relationships; the pace of work; resources and costs; relationships with

contractors and consultants; and performance criteria. Each of

these is described, briefly, below,

6.2.1 Planning Styles

Some organizations rely on detailed plans with highly structured

schedules and carefully defined staff assignments; others prefer

a less structured approach, for example utilizing informal brainstorming in the development of 5-year plans.

The transition to end-user computing will be a complex process.

The plans to accomplish this must be compatible with the planning

styles of the Agency.

6.2.2 Power and Leadership

The distribution of power and the way leadership is exercised

differs with organizations. At one extreme, all decisions are

made at the top, with little or no input from subordinates. At

the other extreme are organizations in which substantial

authority has been delegated and decisionmaking responsibility is

widely distributed.

224
End-user computing, by its nature, is in some conflict with

strong central control. To achieve a smooth transition, agencies

which tend to rely on unilateral decisionmaking should, in the

future, expect to have to delegate more authority if a smooth

transition is to be achieved.

6.2.3 Interpersonal Relationships

In some agencies relationships are formal and impersonal; in

others, intra-agency relationships sometimes deal with personal,

as well as work-related concerns.

Like any other change, the growth of end-user computing will

threaten some individuals and benefit others. Management

decisions regarding implementation need to be made with an understanding of the Agency's interpersonal patterns. This is

important for at least two reasons.

First, the degree to which an office takes a "personal interest"

in its staff should help determine the manner in which change is

handled. Some agencies will need to provide many opportunities

for personal discussions with employees about what effects the

new technologies are likely to have on their jobs, careers, and

on the office atmosphere in general. Other agencies will be able

to handle the transition on a more formal and structured basis.

Second, what looks good on an organization chart may not work in

reality. It is important to know which personnel work well

together and which do not. This is one reason why user participation is important in implementing change; management and

outside consultants may not always be aware of which combinations

of people are more or less effective.

6. 2. 4 Pace of Work

Some organizations generate work at a fast pace. Turnaround time

is rapid and results are immediate. These organizations are

often able to handle rapid change. Other organizations operate

in a more deliberate fashion, both physically and psychologically

more slowly. In these offices, change is more evolutionary in

character.

With the growing pressure to utilize the new technologies, some

agencies may feel pressured to introduce widespread changes before they are really ready. Others may want to "study the

problem" longer than is really necessary. Federal managers need

to carefully consider the best pace to implement end-user computing, to ensure consistency with the general tempo of the work and

to maximize their agency's ability to accomodate the changes.

6.2.5 Resources and Cost

The costs involved in implementing end-user computing fall into

two main categories: direct expenses, such as the costs of

hardware and software, salaries, consultants and contractors; and

225
opportunity costs, the time spent creating and implementing the

new technological environment, that might be spent for some other

purpose. Agency resources are finite, and there are many

competing demands on the time and money which are available.

The extent to which an Agency decides to implement end-user

computing, the scope of its effort and the nature of its choices,

will be affected by these contraints. Careful analysis of

current and future available resources is essential and should be

made as early as possible. Agency managers face a very large

number of alternatives. Their choices need to take into account

both the size of the initial investment and the ability of their

agencies to maintain it in the future without undue burden.

6.2.6 Relat ionships with Contractors and Consultants

Some relationships with consultants are "client centered"; that

is, the client retains primary responsibility for diagnosing the

problem and determining the best course of action. In other

client relationships, responsibilities rest almost entirely with

the consultant, who is an expert.

With respect to end-user computing, government agencies will be

working with vendors, contractors and consultants in the aquisition and utilization of new technology and systems. (Users

working with their agency information resource centers will have

a similar relationship.) Most Federal managers will lack the

technical background to thoroughly evaluate the advice and information they receive, some of which is likely to be conflicting.

Federal managers need ways to strengthen their ability to make

informed choices in a complex technological arena. Responsibilities must be clarified and opportunities to blame "outside

experts" for bad decisions must be minimized.

6.2.7 Nature of Performance Criteria

In the private sector, the most common way of measuring success

is in terms of profit—how the innovation affects the "bottom

line". While Federal managers need to adhere to a budget, and

while it is desirable and may be possible to effect cost savings

by following a particular course of action, such savings may not

necessarily be the main criterion for judging the merits of the

action

.

The criteria for measuring the value of end-user computing are

particularly ambiguous, since they involve intangibles such as

quality of decisions, analytical effectiveness, and managerial

productivity. These are notoriously difficult to measure.

Federal managers should try to clarify their own expectations of

end-user compi-' ing early in the transition process, to avoid

disappointment and frustration over the results that the changes

accomplish.

226
6.3 FACILITATING CHANGE

It is true that, on the whole, microcomputers are being acquired

and their benefits are being anticipated with great enthusiasm.

It is also true that the introduction of the new technology will

effect important organizational changes in the Federal workplace.

In fact, most of the major management issues that have been

described , in this report center around questions of control,

authority, and other organizational considerations.

As figure 6.1 indicates, there are a number of possible ways for

an individual to respond to organizational change. However,

those attitudes depend to a great extent on how the change is

managed. Those in charge of instituting change can facilitate

the process and help to make the transition to end-user computing

a positive experience for all concerned.

Response to organizational change.

A change

project is proposed

Individuals evaluate impact on themselvesIndividuals respond to the change accordingly

Destructive Resist openly

Threatening ^ Resist cove.tly Uncertain » Tolerate

Positive > Support, participate

A person's evaluation of the impact a proposed change will have on him usually results from:

1. The amount of infornnation he has about the proposed

change.

2. The extent to ¥vhich he can particiF>ate in change project

decisions.

3. How much he trusts the initiator of change.

4. His past experience with change.

Adapted from Robert M. Fulmer, The New Management (New York: Macmillan. 1974).

Figure 6.1 Response to Organizational Change

One of the most important ways of ensuring a positive outcome is

for management to maintain good communications with all employees

about the changes that are taking place. Included in the information that should be provided is:

o a review of the organization's history of change

(to acknowledge past experience);

o a statement of the manager's motives and anticipated rewards (to foster trust)

;

227
a review of the experience other organizations have

had with the kinds of change proposed and a thorough explanation of the plan for this organization (to foster as thorough an understanding of

expectations as possible); and.

An explanation of everybody's roles and responsibilities including decisions for which they may

provide input (to clarify the extent to which individuals can participate in change decisions) ,

228
7. CUNCLUSIUNS AND KLCUhMtNUAT lUNS

7.1 OVERVIEW

The situation observed in government vis-a-vis the new technologies is not unique; private industry is also struggling to

keep pace. But there are a number of aspects of the situation

that are particularly characteristic of government.

First, government tends to lag behind private industry in

addressing such issues. For one thing, private industry can

often institute de facto management techniques which involve

little formal reorganization, and where success can easily be

determined by using the "bottom line" as the ultimate measure of

the wisdom of decision making. Government cannot evaluate its

decisions using profits and losses, and the relative costs and

benefits as played out in such areas as worker productivity are

exceedingly difficult to assess.

Secondly, government falls prey to problems in implementing and

maintaining long-term management strategies because of frequent

changes in high-level personnel having policy-making and senior

management responsibilities. To the extent that policy-making

and management relative to the new technologies are the

responsibility of high level appointees, long-term planning and

commitment to any particular management strategy become

difficult

.

7.2 CENTRAL MANAGEMENT AGENCIES

The central management agencies have several options in providing

direction and oversight with respect to the new technologies.

However, the success of their choices will depend on two factors:

the coordination of management responsibilities across the

agencies, and the continuity of any strategies over time.

On the issue of coordination, the GAO has described the ambiguity

that exists concerning the respective roles and functions of each

central agency. But even to the extent that roles are mutually

understood, the allocation of related but different responsibilities across the agencies leaves open the possibility of a fragmented response unless deliberate efforts are undertaken to

respond in an integrated way.

Lack of coordination could lead to several problems. For

instance, the central agencies could develop incompatible

objectives with respect to the new technology; or they could

promulgate conflicting guidance for achieving similar objectives.

Similarly, a strong approach by one of the central management

agencies might be accompanied by a laissez-faire approach on the

part of another —an inconsistency which could hinder an executive

branch agency in its development of an effective agency-wide

response. Having limited resources, operating agencies might

have difficulty responding equally to different areas of central

229
management emphasis (e.g., hardware compatibility as opposed to

changing personnel requirements) . Because the effects of the new

technology are anticipated to be so pervasive throughout the

Federal workforce, an integrated, coordinated set of strategies

at the central management level would appear to be essential.

The issue of continuity over time is equally important. The

procurement and management of large amounts of hardware and

software, the creation of networks of microcomputers communicating with one another and with minis and mainframes and the

dramatic changes that are occurring in the work environment

cannot easily be managed effectively in a climate of the

radically shifting winds of politics. Without a reasoned,

steady, and consistent course that evolves in tandem with the

expanding technology and the changing work environment, the

Federal government will find it exceedingly difficult to catch up

with and harness the new technology for its own benefit.

It is interesting that the Paper Reduction Act, which aims to

foster and improve the management of Federal information, may in

fact undermine continuity. That is because the Act requires that

the individual responsible for IRM within an agency be a senior

official who reports directly to the head of that agency. Since

those positions are almost always political appointments, the

result is that IRM leadership is virtually guaranteed to turn

over every i8-24 months. In presidential election years, the

effects can be dramatic, since new administrations often

formulate policies very different from those of their

predecessors.

Going beyond coordination and continuity, the central agencies

need to determine appropriate levels of specificity at which they

will manage the new technology and develop collateral management

mechanisms for implementing those strategies. Four levels on

which the central agencies might choose to exercise management

are

:

o goals (e,g,, efficient and economic information

processing) ,

o objectives (e,g,, procurement of hardware and software at the lowest price)

,

o processes (e,g,, providing training on evaluating

microcomputer capabilities), and

o outcomes (e,g,, requiring adherence to specific

hardware or software standards)

.

Decisions as to which of the levels a management strategy will

target need to be made with consideration of the management

mechanisms that will be required to implement the strategy. In

determining management mechanisms, both cost/budget issues and

anticipated impact on the agencies need to be considered.

230
At one extreme, the establishment of general goals for the

agencies would probably not require costly and burdensome

reporting mechanisms; by the same token, such "management" would

probably have little impact on what actually occurs within

individual agencies. At the other extreme, attempts to regulate

specific agency outcomes at the central management level would

probably need to be accompanied by a set of clearance or reporting mechanisms, the costs of which would probably outweigh

the potential benefits; whether or not such a strategy would even

have the desired impact would probably depend on the vigor with

which it was enforced and the ingenuity mustered in its

circumvention. In the latter regard, private industry is showing

a degree of leadership: e.g, in one company which adheres to

rigorous central control over the procurement of microcomputers,

an ingenious program manager ordered 5,000 reams of processor

paper from a vendor who threw in a "free" microcomputer with the

order ,

It is clear that there is a real need for the central management

agencies to define responsibilities and provide leadership and

guidance for Executive Branch agencies. In fact, there are

dangers in inaction. For one thing, the reluctance of the

central agencies (particularly 0MB) to articulate a policy may

make individual agencies wary of going too far on their own.

They may rightfully fear that any steps taken at this point will

have to be "undone" if 0MB chooses to act. Further, there is an

important role for the central agencies in providing the information, direction, and support which the agencies require. The

absence of this leadership will hamper or even prevent the

agencies from implementing their own programs.

The central management agencies can provide leadership in several

ways. Listed below are suggestions for policies and actions.

1. 0PM. 0PM needs to recognize that an evolution is

taking place in the work environment, and that a changing combination of skills may become necessary

or desirable within certain job series. For some

professionals, such as budget analysts or scientists, the ability and willingness to use microcomputers may significantly enhance their

performance and may in fact become increasingly

necessary. For secretaries and clerical assistants, these abilities can expand the scope and

nature of their work and enhance their value and

contribution to the agency. But as data and word

processing functions become increasingly intermeshed, clerks and secretaries are becoming capable

of providing increasing administrative and/or

research assistant type support; indeed, many are

already being expected to perform such duties. Yet

existing position classification standards build in

no incentives for acquiring the necessary skills

and taking on responsibilities for automated data

input, retrieval, or manipulation. Without job231
classification standards that recognize the value

of such expanded capabilities and responsibilities,

employees in low grades in dead-end job series will

simply take their newly acquired skills to private

industry where they are more highly valued.

This is precisely what has happened in the area of

word processing. 0PM currently places no

incremental value on the ability to do word

processing above and beyond that for ordinary

typing--in some cases, even down-grading the

employee. Thus, clerk-typists often remain in

government just long enough to learn word

processing. Then, when faced with a ceiling on

promotion opportunities, they leave for private

industry where their skills are valued. In effect,

the Federal government has become a training

facility for the private sector. 0PM needs to reexamine these issues and revise its position

classification standards to reflect the realities

of the current and projected work environment.

However, interviews at 0PM indicate that this may

be a long time coming. Currently, 0PM is working

on revisions to the "Computer Specialist"

classification and, in the view of some senior 0PM

managers, that should solve any personnel problems

stemming from end-user computing.

ICST. ICST should continue to promote and support

the information resource center concept for the

agencies. It should help define functions which

the Centers could provide, prepare guidance for the

agencies on how to establish such a capability, and

explain how this capability would help meet their

needs, especially in the context of changing data

processing roles and responsibilities.

Furthermore, ICST should advocate that the

Information Resource Center be headed by senior

career civil servants. With their managers charged

with long-term planning, this would help ensure

continuity of information management, even in the

face of frequently changing administrations and

political appointees. Moreover, the information

resource center concept could provide a realistic

framework concerning the roles and functions of

both ADP and non-ADP staff—a framework that could

serve as a starting point for re-evaluation of

position classification standards and other aspects

of personnel policy.

OMB/GSA/ICST. One of these central management

agencies should actively track on-going developments in the management of end-user computing and

should institute a "pointer" system which agencies

can use to find out where innovative management

232
tecaniqaes are being utilized and relevant traininj

is being given. The Re toe a '33 initiative now

underway at 0MB would be an appropriate vehicle for

examining the mechanics of a pointer system and

determining who might best carry it out.

4. _ COORDINATION OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMS. There are

many ways in which support froiti the central

management agencies is needed. However, that

support would be most useful if it reflected a coordinated central management outlook, a sharing

of resources, and a consistent view of issues and

appropriate solutions. Some specific suggestions

ar e

o jointly sponsor meetings and workshops for user

agency personnel, each central agency dealing

with a particular aspect of IRM or microcomputer

management

;

o develop planning guides for organizing for IRM;

o provide training to user personnel in subjects

of management agency expertise (e.g., costbenefit analysis techniques);

o conduct workshops on organizational development

issues, specially focussed on the implications

of end-user computing;

o develop a set of incentives, applicable to most

agencies, to minimize the necessity for strong

central control of end-user computing. The aim

is to minimize passive resistance and obtain

compliance with policies, in the spirit as well

as the letter of the law;

o eliminate unnecessary obstacles to microcomputer

utilization, such as overly complex approval

procedures; and

o establish networks among users, corresponding to

the categories of users identified in figure

3 .1.

7.3 EXECUTIVE BRANCH AGENCIES

Federal agencies differ in many ways: in size, styles o£

leadership, data processing sophistication, and, perhaps most

importantly, in mission. A private company can decide to scrap a product or try to develop a different line of business. Not so for Federal agencies whose missions are established by

legislation or executive order. Agency heads have little leeway

233
in changing that, except to the extent such changes ace an

expression of the policy eiiphasis of the incunnbent

adiTiinistration

.

In terms of i nf oriiiat ion han:31ing, this means that decisions

regarding allocation of information resources must enhance the

agency's already established mission. Thus, for example, the

Smithsonian can consider leveloping local area networks t'j link

museums and other places of scholarly endeavor, while, on th^?

other hand, regulatory agencies, like the EPA, must think in

terms of systems which facilitate the carrying out of its

enforcement responsibilities. To make the introduction and

management of end-user co^nputing a positive, rather than

disruptive experience, the implementation process should be

compatible with the organizational patterns which characterize

the agency's functioning. Because of the variety that exists in

this regard, the recommendations presented below are more those

of considerations rather than recommendations for action.

1. Management approaches should be institutionalized

to as great an extent as possible to minimize

problems of continuity. For example, key IRM

managers, such as the manager of an information

resource center, should be career staff.

2. Don't be dazzled by packaged solutions to

management problems. Working through the process

is necessary to successful implementation; agencies

need to do some things for theinselves. What is not

needed is an organizational chart developed

elsewhere for use by another agency. While such a chart nay be a handy starting point, don't expect

to institute it in your own agency by fiat. A

certain amount of reinventing the wheel is both

necessary and desirable. The central management

agencies should provide enough guidance to prevent

the agencies from inventing flat tires.

3. User orientation means user participation.

Maximize user involvement in all phases of

implementation, especially in making decisions. An

information resource center may be a good focal

point for organizing along these lines.

4. Keep IRM policymaking responsibility separate from

operational responsibilities. rjsers need to be

able to obtain objective information about

information processing alternatives in order to

make good choices. In-house ADP should not be a mandated monopoly.

5. Establish and maintain both inter- and intra-agency

networks. Organize meetings around problem

solving, rather than show and tell. Stay in contact with counterparts in other agencies and in the

234
private sector. Electronic bulletin boards, such

as the one run by ICST (telephone number: (381)

948-5718) can help put you in touch with user

g roups

.

6. Pay attention to process. Consider utilizing some

kind of team building approach which aims to

improve working relationships and is structured

enough to provide an orderly direction for future

efforts

.

7.4 CONCLUSION

Management issues pertaining to end-user computing in the Federal

government deal not only with managing the new environment, but

with managing the transition to that environment. There are

approaches, some in particular for the central management

agencies, which will make that transition easier and keep the

disruptive effects to a minimum. Ultimately, the responsibility

for implementation strategy will rest with the operating

agenc ies

.

There is good news. Part I of this Report covers the period from

now through 1997. Technological changes will be introduced

incrementally; offices are facing evolution, not revolution; new

technologies can be incorporated into the workplace in an orderly

way. There is still time to take full advantage of the

opportunities offered by the new technologies if we use the time

wel 1

.

235
KLFLKLNCtS

McGill, Michael E. , Organizational Development for

Operating Managers , Aoiacom, 1977.

Memo from Charles A. Bowsher , Comptroller General of the

United States, to John D. Dingell, Committee on Energy and

Commerce, House of Representatives, Subject: Information

Resource Management Problems in the Department of Commerce

(GAO/CED-82-113) , September 30, 1982.

General Services Administration, Managing End-User Computing

in the Federal Government , February 1, 1983.

Arthur Young and Co., "The Impact of Low Cost Computing

Technologies in the Department of Defense", Conceptual

Paper, February 1982.

Wohl , Amy D. , and Kathleen Carey, "We're Not Really Sure How

Many We Have", Datamation, November 1982.

Arthur Young and Co., "Low Cost Computing Strategies: An

Analysis of Private Industry", Working Paper, August 18,

1982 .

IBM, "Business Systems Planning", Planning Guide, 1981.

U.S. General Accounting Office, Strong Central Management Of

Office Automation Will Boost Productivity, September 21,

1982 . Usher, Andrew, Office of Management and Budget, Address

made at Information Resources Management Conference,

Gettysburg, PA., September 1982.

Letter Report from W. D. Campbell, U.S. General Accounting

Office, to David A. Stockman, Office of Management and

Budget, Subject: Small Computers in the Federal Government:

Management is Needed to Realize Potential and Prevent Problems, GAO/AFMD-83-36 , March 8, 1983.

Bearman, David, "Policy and Planning Issues For Information

Resource Management in the Smithsonian Institution",

December 10, 1982.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of Information

Resources Management, USDA Information Technology Center,

Brochure.

U.S. Department of the Interior, "Working Paper on IBM

Issues: Draft Menu for Bureau Planning", May 1981.

236
AFFIRM, "Constitution of the Association for Federal

Information Resources Management, 1983.

This discussion is drawn extensively, sometimes verbatim,

from Organizational Development for Operat ing Managers , (see

reference 1) .

237

U.S. GOVIIRlJMEiW PRIHTINC OPPICE : 1985 0-580-997/5155
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BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA

SHEET (See instructions)

1. PUBLICATION OR

REPORT NO.

NBS SP 500-103

2. Performing Organ. Report No. 3. Publication Date August 1983

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Ccjitputer Science and Technology:

Future Information Processing TechnologY-1983

5. AUTHOR(S)

Peg Kay and Patricia Powell, editors

6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION (If joint or other than NBS. see instructions) 7. Contract/Grant No. NB80SBCA-0450

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 8. Type of Report & Period Covered

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20234

Final

9. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND COMPLETE ADDRESS (Street. City. State. ZIP)

Institute for Conputer Sciences and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, DC 20234

10. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 83-600563

[^J Document describes a computer program; SF-185, FIPS Software Summary, is attached.

11. ABSTRACT (A 200-word or less factual summary of most significant information. If document includes a significant

bibliography or literature survey, mention it here)

The document contains the 1983 Technical Forecast for the information processing industry through 1997. It consists of six

parts. Part I forecasts the underlying technologies of hardware

and software, contains a discussion of changes in the information

industy and market, and forecasts products and systems of the

future, e.g., general-purpose systems, distributed processing

systems, office systems. Part II contains Federal agency staff

comments on Part I, Part III summarizes a teleconference in

which a number of industry ADP users and vendors reviewed Part I.

Part IV provides cost estimates for computer systems, subsystems,

and terminals through 1997. Part V discusses the current and

potential rules and regulations of the Federal environment and

how they may affect the Federal inventory of ADP equipment. Part

vl discusses management strategies for the new information technologies with emphasis on microprocessors.

12. KEY WORDS (Six to twelve entries; alphabetical order; capitalize only proper names; and separate key words by semicolon s) conputers; cost estimation; distributed processing systems; end-user conputing;

Federal ADP regulations; general-purpose carputer systems; information processing

industry; management strategies; microccirputers; office systems; technology forecasting

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