BUILDINGTECHNOLOGIESPROGRAMMay28,2014ASRACPumpsWorkingGroupWebinarMeetingLCC,Shipments,andNIA2Overview•LCC– ImpactstoIndividualConsumers–Reviewupdatedinputs(includingforVT‐S)–ReviewupdatedresultsforESCC,ESFM,andILandnewresultsforVT‐S–Resultsnowprovidedbysizeranges•ShipmentsModel–Reviewassumptions–Presentprojections•NIA– ImpactstoNation–Reviewmethodology–Presentresults•NationalEnergySavings(NES)•NationalNetPresentValue(NPV)3NOPR Rulemaking StageMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use & EndUse LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalImpactAnalysis4•Reviseddistributionchannelstoaccountfornewchannel–Assigned80%ofPumpOEMDistributorEndUserchanneltothenewchanneltorepresentthenewmarket(asopposedtoreplacementmarket)UpdatedInputs:MarkupsAnalysisChannel: FromManufacturerPreviousShareofShipmentsNewshareofShipmentsPumpOEMtoDistributortoEndUser 87%17%PumpOEMtoDistributortoContractortoEndUser0%70%PumpOEMtoOEMtoEndUser 8% 8%PumpOEMtoEndUser 2% 2%PumpOEMtoContractortoEndUser 1% 1%PreviousMarkup NewMarkupBaseline 1.501.59Incremental 1.241.345UpdatedInputs:EnergyUseLoadProfilesPreviousWts New WtsLP0 25%30%LP1 25%30%LP2 25%30%LP3 25%10%•RevisedLP3weighttomakeoverloadinglessprevalent6UpdatedInputs:AnnualOperatingHours• Revisedoperatinghoursin“other”sectorQuintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile4 Quintile5CoolingWater 2500 3500 5000 6000 7500BoilerFeed 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000Circulation 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000Pressure Boost 300 600 1000 2500 4500Irrigation 300 600 1000 1500 2000Other 600 940 1500 3300 3300RevisedOther 1000 1500 2000 3000 40007UpdatedInputs:LifetimeProductClassAverageMechanicalLifetimeAverageNo.RepairCycles AverageLifetimeESCC,1800 31002 0.0 13.9ESCC,3600 19989 0.0 9.2ESFM,1800 46874 2.6 21.1ESFM,3600 40370 2.7 19.0IL,1800 34039 0.8 15.4IL,3600 24702 0.9 11.7VT‐S,3600 15929 0.0 10.3050010001500200025004 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40ESCCESFMILVT‐S8UpdatedInputs:VT‐SSectorWeights• VT-S have less weight in commercial and more weight inagricultural and municipal than other pump types:Sector ESCC ESFM IL VT‐S TotalAgriculture 10% 10% 10%31%12%Commercial 51% 51% 51%13%47%Industrial 33% 33% 33%30%33%Municipal 6% 6% 6%26%8%9LCCResults:NoCostRecovery10Scenario1:NoCostRecovery•Basecasecostcurveonly•Noconversioncostsarepassedontoconsumers•Affectedconsumerspurchasepumpsmeetingtheminimumstandardatpricesequivalenttothosealreadyonthemarket.40060080010001200140016001800110 115 120 125 130 135

MSP $C‐valueper_0per_10per_25per_40per_55per_70Example– numbersnotuptodate11AverageLCCSavings($)TotalSmallHPLargeHPMediumHP12AverageLCCSavings($)Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800 $54.79$165.03$272.66$428.03$613.42Small $37.90$83.18$137.91$208.82$282.76Medium $64.71$327.16$559.65$858.66$1,237.34Large $427.96$1,013.20$1,500.00$2,729.64$4,301.43ESCC,3600 $18.99$83.35$142.07$208.59$335.95Small $2.62$7.87$19.75$38.78$69.17Medium $91.37$437.79$690.99$953.75$1,409.81Large $117.93$371.10$815.47$1,280.82$2,809.32ESFM,1800 $47.04$263.52$508.86$877.94$1,344.27Small $5.19$30.16$82.38$170.26$297.30Medium $29.19$393.20$767.66$1,305.34$1,909.68Large $539.17$1,271.26$2,185.49$3,675.57$5,989.93ESFM,3600 $176.95$506.74$901.89$1,215.04$2,014.10Small $0.41$29.43$100.46$159.73$276.45Medium $135.12$560.77$1,047.66$1,449.57$2,408.71Large $1,181.99$2,252.98$3,514.02$4,407.23$7,221.34IL,1800 $43.66$165.58$298.28$469.08$685.73Small $51.71$116.14$169.86$217.58$284.14Medium $16.90$187.08$390.86$794.48$1,306.77Large $3.15$1,429.25$3,319.38$5,362.56$7,778.71IL,3600 $384.05$554.16$702.65$791.45$1,009.35Small $349.18$467.34$554.65$603.95$684.53Medium $493.52$755.07$1,053.88$1,217.71$1,740.78Large $2.08$1,741.61$2,464.57$3,582.83$6,053.27VT‐S,3600 $2.08$15.07$109.69$191.30$249.19Small $0.50$10.97$93.38$155.38$196.62Medium $11.56$39.63$207.59$406.82$564.68GrandTotal $103.96$250.51$419.45$597.34$893.1213ChangeinOperatingCost(>0)&PurchasePrice(<0)byPERTotalSmallHPLargeHPMediumHP14OperatingCostSavingsvs.PurchasePriceChangePER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceESCC,180064‐9 201‐36 309‐36 464‐36 649‐36Small 48‐11 120‐37 175‐37 246‐37 320‐37Medium 68‐3 360‐33 593‐33 892‐33 1270‐33Large 438‐10 1042‐29 1529‐29 2758‐29 4330‐29ESCC,360021‐2 92‐9 151‐9 217‐9 345‐9Small 3 0 9‐1 21‐1 40‐1 71‐1Medium 100‐9 485‐47 738‐47 1001‐47 1457‐47Large 120‐2 383‐12 827‐12 1293‐12 2821‐12ESFM,180049‐2 287‐24 533‐24 902‐24 1368‐24Small 6‐1 40‐10 92‐10 180‐10 307‐10Medium 32‐3 432‐39 806‐39 1344‐39 1948‐39Large 549‐10 1301‐30 2215‐30 3706‐30 6020‐30ESFM,3600181‐4 531‐24 926‐24 1239‐24 2038‐24Small 1 0 33‐4 104‐4 163‐4 280‐4Medium 141‐6 597‐36 1084‐36 1486‐36 2445‐36Large 1197‐15 2296‐43 3557‐43 4450‐43 7264‐43IL,180060‐17 214‐49 347‐49 518‐49 735‐49Small 72‐20 171‐55 224‐55 272‐55 339‐55Medium 22‐5 213‐26 417‐26 820‐26 1333‐26Large 4 0 1476‐46 3366‐46 5409‐46 7825‐46IL,3600409‐25 611‐57 759‐57 848‐57 1066‐57Small 380‐31 536‐68 623‐68 672‐68 753‐68Medium 504‐10 781‐26 1079‐26 1243‐26 1766‐26Large 6‐4 1777‐35 2500‐35 3618‐35 6089‐35VT‐S,36003‐1 27‐12 121‐12 203‐12 261‐12Small 1 0 23‐12 106‐12 168‐12 209‐12Medium 15‐3 48‐9 216‐9 415‐9 573‐915Winners/Losers/NoImpact(ESCC1800)0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70SmallHPLosersNoImpactWinners0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70TotalLosersNoImpactWinners0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70MediumHPLosersNoImpactWinners0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70LargeHPLosersNoImpactWinners16Winners/Losers/NoImpactPumpType W/L/U PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800 Winners 16 28 46 57 71ESCC,1800 Losers 1 3 1 1 1ESCC,1800 NoImpact 83 69 52 42 28ESCC,3600 Winners 3 9 23 27 30ESCC,3600 Losers 2 0 0 0 0ESCC,3600 NoImpact 96 91 77 73 70ESFM,1800 Winners 6 25 46 65 78ESFM,1800 Losers 0 1 0 0 0ESFM,1800 NoImpact 94 74 54 35 22ESFM,3600 Winners 13 26 43 50 61ESFM,3600 Losers 0 0 0 0 0ESFM,3600 NoImpact 87 74 57 50 39IL,1800 Winners 13 28 40 52 63IL,1800 Losers 2 3 2 1 1IL,1800 NoImpact 85 69 59 47 36IL,3600 Winners 26 43 49 53 64IL,3600 Losers 0 1 0 0 0IL,3600 NoImpact 73 56 50 47 36VT‐S,3600 Winners 1 28 47 52 55VT‐S,3600 Losers 1 12 0 0 0VT‐S,3600 NoImpact 98 60 53 48 4517PaybackPeriod(Median)ProductClass PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800 3.0 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0ESCC,3600 3.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0ESFM,1800 1.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0ESFM,3600 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0IL,1800 3.4 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.0IL,3600 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3VT‐S,3600 5.8 4.8 0.7 0.4 0.3ProductClass PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC18001Small 3.2 3.5 1.1 0.4 0.0ESCC18002Medium 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0ESCC18003Large 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0ESCC36001Small 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0ESCC36002Medium 4.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1ESCC36003Large 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0ESFM18001Small 3.0 4.4 0.6 0.0 0.0ESFM18002Medium 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0ESFM18003Large 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0ESFM36001Small 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0ESFM36002Medium 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0ESFM36003Large 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0IL18001Small 3.5 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.6IL18002Medium 2.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0IL18003Large 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0IL36001Small 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7IL36002Medium 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0IL36003Large 5.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0VT‐S36001Small 5.7 4.9 0.7 0.4 0.4VT‐S36002Medium 9.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.018LCCResults:FullCostRecovery19Scenario2:FullCostRecovery•Affectedconsumerspurchasearedesignedversionoftheirpreviouspump•Forcoststoberecovered,theymustbereflectedinthepricesofaffectedpumps–IncreasedpriceusedinthisLCCscenariobasedonanannuitythatcreateszerochangeinINPVovertheanalysisperiod40060080010001200140016001800110 115 120 125 130 135

MSP $C‐valueper_0per_10per_25per_40per_55per_70Example– numbersnotuptodate20AverageLCCSavings($)TotalSmallHPLargeHPMediumHP21AverageLCCSavings($)Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800 $44.00$144.62$203.64$267.48$298.44Small $23.65$68.02$73.07$71.96$34.57Medium $64.30$288.08$479.30$652.09$765.25Large $423.34$1,008.06$1,413.39$2,315.91$3,503.09ESCC,3600 $16.15$77.67$109.91$146.88$237.83Small $2.49$6.64$(4.71) $(3.86)$8.14Medium $74.39$414.39$623.09$820.21$1,161.11Large $116.47$322.28$750.34$1,002.12$2,377.89ESFM,1800 $40.62$228.27$400.83$630.04$924.45Small $3.50$5.17$31.51$(2.58) $(15.19)Medium $17.74$342.60$606.52$1,007.08$1,419.32Large $530.47$1,264.72$1,992.25$3,169.06$5,189.15ESFM,3600 $166.25$488.91$841.72$1,093.07$1,788.46Small $0.43$13.50$63.26$97.11$181.72Medium $116.56$541.99$970.66$1,287.81$2,113.26Large $1,170.68$2,232.50$3,452.50$4,260.36$6,836.26IL,1800 $45.78$153.81$204.59$231.90$271.27Small $56.35$111.01$115.95$65.21$(10.29)Medium $9.30$165.75$195.06$322.58$553.82Large $1.90$1,295.04$2,811.63$4,363.20$6,330.02IL,3600 $390.73$552.89$652.83$670.58$757.80Small $357.26$477.00$516.23$501.15$500.38Medium $497.32$723.79$972.03$1,057.24$1,319.72Large$(21.31)$1,730.39$2,427.55$3,148.18$5,285.31VT‐S,3600$(2.33)$7.02$81.15$123.54$130.88Small$(1.72)$2.51$66.77$93.52$101.34Medium$(5.95)$34.09$167.41$303.66$308.16GrandTotal $100.20$236.19$356.39$451.93$629.8522ChangeinOperatingCost(>0)&PurchasePrice(<0)byPERTotalSmallHPLargeHPMediumHP23OperatingCostSavingsvs.PurchasePriceChangePER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceΔOpCostΔPriceESCC,180064‐20 201‐56 309‐105 464‐196 649‐351Small 48‐25 120‐52 175‐102 246‐174 320‐285Medium 68‐4 360‐72 593‐113 892‐239 1270‐505Large 438‐14 1042‐34 1529‐115 2758‐443 4330‐827ESCC,360021‐5 92‐15 151‐41 217‐71 345‐107Small 3‐1 9‐3 21‐26 40‐44 71‐62Medium 100‐26 485‐71 738‐115 1001‐181 1457‐296Large 120‐4 383‐61 827‐77 1293‐291 2821‐443ESFM,180049‐9 287‐59 533‐132 902‐272 1368‐444Small 6‐3 40‐35 92‐61 180‐182 307‐322Medium 32‐14 432‐89 806‐200 1344‐337 1948‐529Large 549‐18 1301‐36 2215‐223 3706‐536 6020‐831ESFM,3600181‐15 531‐42 926‐84 1239‐146 2038‐250Small 1 0 33‐20 104‐41 163‐66 280‐98Medium 141‐24 597‐55 1084‐113 1486‐198 2445‐331Large 1197‐26 2296‐63 3557‐104 4450‐189 7264‐428IL,180060‐15 214‐61 347‐142 518‐286 735‐463Small 72‐15 171‐60 224‐108 272‐207 339‐349Medium 22‐13 213‐47 417‐222 820‐498 1333‐779Large 4‐2 1476‐181 3366‐554 5409‐1046 7825‐1495IL,3600409‐19 611‐58 759‐107 848‐178 1066‐308Small 380‐23 536‐59 623‐107 672‐171 753‐252Medium 504‐7 781‐57 1079‐107 1243‐186 1766‐447Large 6‐27 1777‐47 2500‐72 3618‐470 6089‐803VT‐S,36003‐5 27‐20 121‐40 203‐79 261‐130Small 1‐3 23‐21 106‐39 168‐74 209‐107Medium 15‐21 48‐14 216‐49 415‐112 573‐26524Winners/Losers/NoImpact0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70TotalLosersNoImpactWinners0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70SmallHPLosersNoImpactWinners0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70MediumHPLosersNoImpactWinners0%20%40%60%80%100%PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70LargeHPLosersNoImpactWinners25Winners/Losers/NoImpactPumpType W/L/U PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800 Winners722 28 3234ESCC,1800 Losers109 20 2538ESCC,1800 NoImpact8369 52 4228ESCC,3600 Winners 2 811 1318ESCC,3600 Losers 2 113 1412ESCC,3600 NoImpact 96 9177 7370ESFM,1800 Winners 3 17 28 38 46ESFM,1800 Losers 3 9 18 27 32ESFM,1800 NoImpact 94 74 54 35 22ESFM,3600 Winners 10 22 35 43 54ESFM,3600 Losers 3 4 8 7 7ESFM,3600 NoImpact 87 74 57 50 39IL,1800 Winners 13 25 28 2929IL,1800 Losers 2 6 14 2435IL,1800 NoImpact 85 69 59 4736IL,3600 Winners 26 38 43 43 48IL,3600 Losers 0 5 7 11 17IL,3600 NoImpact 73 56 50 47 36VT‐S,3600 Winners0 1641 42 40VT‐S,3600 Losers2 246 10 15VT‐S,3600 NoImpact98 6053 48 4526PaybackPeriod(Median)ProductClass PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC,1800 11.5 5.2 7.3 8.2 10.7ESCC,360038.71.5 8.8 6.1 4.5ESFM,1800 10.3 5.8 7.9 8.9 8.9ESFM,3600 4.1 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.3IL,1800 2.7 3.9 6.1 9.2 11.9IL,3600 0.6 1.4 1.9 2.9 3.8VT‐S,360040.39.1 2.9 3.7 4.6ProductClass PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC18001Small 12.0 6.3 9.6 10.1 13.1ESCC18002Medium 0.7 2.6 2.5 3.7 6.5ESCC18003Large 0.3 0.3 2.3 3.7 3.4ESCC36001Small 1.1 3.420.911.8 8.2ESCC36002Medium55.31.3 1.4 1.6 1.8ESCC36003Large 0.3 2.6 0.9 9.6 1.4ESFM18001Small 10.532.013.1 20.6 18.7ESFM18002Medium 11.4 3.3 5.7 4.5 4.7ESFM18003Large 0.5 0.4 4.2 4.6 3.0ESFM36001Small 2.0 11.9 7.1 6.7 5.2ESFM36002Medium 4.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.1ESFM36003Large 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2IL18001Small 2.5 4.1 5.6 10.0 16.2IL18002Medium 6.6 2.4 11.2 9.1 7.5IL18003Large 5.8 1.5 2.9 3.0 2.5IL36001Small 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.9IL36002Medium 0.1 2.8 1.7 2.3 3.8IL36003Large38.20.2 0.2 2.7 1.6VT‐S36001Small36.69.0 2.9 3.7 4.4VT‐S36002Medium196.4 86.92.8 3.0 7.127NOPR Rulemaking StageMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use & EndUse LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalImpactAnalysis28ShipmentsAnalysis•Purpose•Toestimatecommercialandindustrialpumpshipmentsinthebasecaseandstandardscases.•Method•Theshipmentsmodelreliesonfourmainsources:‒Currentshipmentsdata(HI);‒Commercialfloorspaceprojections(AEO2014);‒Valueofmanufacturingandagriculturalshipments(AEO2014);‒Population(AEO2014).•Shipmentsprojectdrivenbygrowthintheseareas.29ShipmentsAnalysis:BaseData• As discussed previously, it is difficult to useexisting sources of market data to identifypumps relevant to this rulemaking.• DOE used the DOE/HI ManufacturersSurvey for Fiscal Year 2012 (compiledMarch 21, 2014) as the base year shipmentsfor the analysis.• DOE notes that the historical census datashows quantity of imported centrifugal nonsubmersible pumps ranging from 9 million to16 million per year from 2000-2010.• A market consultant estimated that a largefraction of these imports would be ESCCand IL.• While many of these would be under the1HP limit, it seems reasonable that manywould not be.EquipmentCategoryTotalIndustryEstimate(Units)RS‐V 49,975VT‐S 104,406ESCC 171,456ESFM 44,042IL 50,424TOTAL 420,303Are imported pumps withinthe scope of this rulemakingfully accounted for in HI’stotal industry shipmentsestimates?30ShipmentsAnalysis:MotorsApproach• The medium electric motors ruleused a shipments model driven byprivate fixed investments inselected equipment.020406080100120140160180

Index 2001=100ShipmentsIndexPrivateFixedInvestmentIndexinSelectedEquipmentandStructure• DOE tried this approach for pumps using data on historical USproduction (shipments) for the relevant equipment classes from the USCensus Bureau.• DOE was unable to obtain a historical fit as good as that for the motors rule,especially when selecting equipment that seemed appropriate• The best fit was with private fixed investment in residential equipment• DOE believes that the historical data provided in the US Census are notrepresentative of commercial and industrial pumps31ShipmentsAnalysis:MotorsApproach• DOEranaprojectionbasedonprivatefixedinvestmentinallequipment.• Shipmentsindexvs.Privatefixedinvestmentindex:Shipmentsindex(y)=1.2427∙FixInvestindex(y)– 19.80349• Shipmentsprojections(inunits)basedonprivatefixedinvestmentprojectionsusing:–2014AnnualEnergyOutlook(2019– 2040),–Extrapolations(2040– 2048).‐203080130180

Index 2000=100ShipmentsIndexy=1.24268x‐19.80349R2=0.8212602040608010012060 70 80 90 100 110

Shipments Index 2000=100PrivateFixedInvestmentIndexinEquipment(PPI,2000=100)32• Theresultingshipmentsprojectionsshowatriplingofshipmentsovertheanalysisperiod.• Asaresultoftheuncertaintyregardingwhetherthehistoricalshipmentsdataarerepresentativeofthecommercialandindustrialpumpsmarket,andtherelativelysteepresultinggrowthprojections(comparedtohistoricaltrends),DOElookedatalternativeshipmentsmethodology.ShipmentsAnalysis:MotorsApproach02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Shipments (1,000)HistoricalReferenceCaseHighEconomicGrowthCaseLowEconomicGrowthCase33ShipmentsAnalysis:AlternateApproach•Insteadofrelyingonhistoricaldatatrendsthatmaynotbefullyrelatedtotheequipmentinscope,DOEstartedwiththe2012shipmentsprovidedbyHIandprojectedforwardusingvariousindicators/projectionsinAEO2014:‒Commercialsector:commercialfloorspace‒Industrialsector:valueofmanufacturingshipments‒Agriculturalsector:valueofagriculture,mining,andconstructionshipments‒Municipalsector:populationSector % FY2012ShipmentsCommercial47% 197,542Industrial33% 138,700Agricultural12% 50,436Municipal8% 33,624TOTAL100% 420,303•Fortheinitialyear(2012),DOEdistributedtotalshipmentsintosectorsusingestimatesfromtheLCC‒Thedistributionofsectorschangesovertimeasaresultofeachsector’sprojection34ShipmentsAnalysis:AlternateApproach01002003004005006007008002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Shipments (1000s)YearTotalCommercialIndustrialAgriculturalMunicipalTotal2041‐2048Commercial2041‐2048Industrial2041‐2048Agricultural2041‐2048Municipal2041‐2048• Theresultingshipmentsprojection,whichwasusedintheNIAresultsthatwillbepresentedtoday,showslessthanadoublingofshipmentsovertheanalysisperiod.Does the industry have any input on which shipments projection seemsmore realistic?35ShipmentsAnalysis:EquipmentClassBreakdown• DOE used the FY12 total industry shipments by equipment classestimated by HI to distribute total shipments in each year into the fiveequipment types.• This fraction remains constant over time.• Some equipment classes (VT-S) have different sector weightings;DOE could use these and their corresponding projections to changethe distribution of shipments by equipment class over time.• DOE used the FY12 data collectedfrom manufacturers to distributeshipments into speeds (1800 vs 3600) and HP ranges.• These fractions remain constant over time.Would the fraction of shipments allotted to each equipment class be expectedto change over time?36ShipmentsAnalysis:StandardsImpactsonShipments• Increased pump prices could affect the repair vs. replace decision that theuser makes and could lead to increasing the longevity of less efficientpumps and decreased shipments.• No data to quantitatively estimate the impact of increased pump prices(from higher efficiency standard levels) on shipments.• Used a price elasticity equal to zero as a default.37ShipmentsAnalysis:ResultsEquipment ClassGroupingAnnual Shipmentsthousand units2019 2025 2035 2048Cumulativeover 30-yearsESCC 199 217 245 287 7,264ESFM 51 56 63 74 1,866IL 58 54 72 84 2,136RS-V 58 63 72 84 2,117VT-S 121 132 149 174 4,423TOTAL 487 532 602 702 17,80638NOPR Rulemaking StageMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use & EndUse LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalImpactAnalysis39NationalImpactAnalysis•Purpose•Forequipmentshippedfrom2019to2048:–ToestimatetheNationalEnergySavings(NES)fromnewandamendedenergyconservationstandardsatdifferentefficiencylevels.–Toestimatethenationaleconomicimpactforcommercialandindustrialpumpusers(ortheNetPresentValue(NPV))fromenergyconservationstandardsatdifferentefficiencylevels.•Method•DOEcalculatesnationalenergysavingsbymultiplyingunitlifetimeenergysavingsbyprojectedshipmentsandaccumulatingthisprojectedvalueoverthe30years.•DOEcalculatestheNPVbyaccumulatingthedifferenceeachyearbetweenenergybillsavingsandincreasedequipmentexpendituresforallpumpsshippedoverthe30yearperiod.40NationalEnergySavingsFlowDiagramBase CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2048Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2021Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2020Base CaseLifetime EnergyConsumption2019ShipmentsAnalysisStandardsCase ProjectionBase-CaseProjectionBase CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2048Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2021Base CaseAnnual EnergyConsumption2020Standards CaseLifetime EnergyConsumption2019Base-CaseCumulativeEnergy UseStandards-CaseCumulativeEnergy UseSite to FFCEnergyConversionNational EnergySavings41NationalConsumerNetPresentValueFlowDiagramShipmentsAnalysisStandardsCase ProjectionEnergyCost(2019 –2048)Base-CaseProjectionCumulativeEnergy CostSavingsCumulativeNon EnergyCost IncreaseDiscountRateNet PresentValueRep, Maint,Cost(2019 –2048)Total InstallCost(2019 –2048)EnergyCost(2019 –2048)Rep, Maint,Cost(2019 –2048)Total InstallCost(2019 –2048)42NationalImpactAnalysisInputsTotal Installed CostBased on the engineering outputs anddepending on the efficiency level.Installation cost not included as it is notexpected to vary by efficiency level.Repair andMaintenance CostsAssumed constant repair and constant maintenance costs across efficiency levels –therefore not included in this analysis.Annual Energy UseAnnual average values per equipment class and efficiency level calculated based oninputs from the EnergyUse Characterization/LCCBase-CaseEfficienciesShipments-weighted efficiencies basedon base case efficiency distributions aspresented in the LCC analysis.Frozen at 2012 and constant across the analysis period.Standards-CaseProjectedEfficienciesRoll-up scenario assumed for determining shipment-weighted efficiency for eachstandards case.Frozen at 2012 and constant across the analysis period.Energy PricesAverage prices and projected energy pricesfrom EIA AEO2014 forecasts (to 2040) andextrapolation to 2048.ElectricityConversion FactorsUsing an estimate for now; will update later to conversion factors based on NEMScorresponding to AEO 2014.Discount Rate7 percent and 3 percent real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4.Present YearFuture expenses are discounted to the year 2014.National Impact Analysis43NationalImpactAnalysis:TrialStandardLevelsTSLEquipment Class GroupFormulation CriteriaESCC ESFM IL RS-V VT-S1PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 102PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 253PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 404PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 555PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70•TheNIAgenerallyconsidersTrialStandardLevels(TSLs),whicharecombinationofefficiencylevels•Forthisanalysis,weassumedthateachTSLconsistsofanidenticalefficiencylevelforeachequipmentclass•Theworkinggroupmaywishtoselectdifferentcombinationsofefficiencylevelstoexaminetogether44NationalImpactAnalysis•CumulativeNationalEnergySavings– EstimatedPrimary(quads)Equipment Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5ESCC0.01 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.22ESFM0.00 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.30IL0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.14RS-VN/A N/A N/A N/A N/AVT-S0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.09TOTAL0.02 0.10 0.24 0.44 0.7645NationalImpactAnalysis•NetPresentValueofConsumerBenefit,Discountedat3%(billion2013$)Equipment Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5ESCC0.02 0.17 0.31 0.49 0.88ESFM0.01 0.12 0.31 0.63 1.2IL0.05 0.12 0.20 0.29 0.45RS-VN/A N/A N/A N/A N/AVT-S0.00 0.02 0.17 0.29 0.35TOTAL0.08 0.43 0.99 1.7 2.846NationalImpactAnalysis•NetPresentValueofConsumerBenefit,Discountedat7%•(billion2013$)Equipment Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5ESCC0.01 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.34ESFM0.00 0.04 0.11 0.21 0.38IL0.02 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.15RS-VN/A N/A N/A N/A N/AVT-S0.00 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.14TOTAL0.03 0.17 0.37 0.62 1.047NationalImpactAnalysis:Refinements•Basecaseandstandardscaseefficiencyprojection–Historicaldatatoidentifyefficiencytrendsovertime?–Couldusetrendsfrommotorsrulemaking?•BasedonmarketpenetrationofNEMAPremiummotorswithinthemarketforintegralalternatingcurrentinductionmotors•Impellertrimming–What%ofshipmentsaretrimmed?–Whatistheaveragepowerratio(atBEP)oftrimmedtofullimpeller?•UserswithVSDorothercontrols–Whatpercentofusershavecontrols?•Wehaveafewsourcesofdatatoreviewforthis–Willthischangeovertimeinthebasecaseorstandardscase?–WhatpowerreductionfactorshouldbeusedtoaccountforVSD?•Efficiencydegradationfactor–Datathatshowsdeclineinefficiencyovertime?