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S. HRG. 109–768 

OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON 

HEARING 

BEFORE A

SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE 

COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS 

UNITED STATES SENATE 

ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS 

SECOND SESSION 

SPECIAL HEARING 

JUNE 7, 2006—WASHINGTON, DC 

Printed for the use of the Committee on Appropriations 

( 

Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/index.html 
(II) 

COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS 

THAD COCHRAN, Mississippi, Chairman 

TED STEVENS, Alaska 

ARLEN SPECTER, Pennsylvania 

PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico 

CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri 

MITCH MCCONNELL, Kentucky 

CONRAD BURNS, Montana 

RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama 

JUDD GREGG, New Hampshire 

ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah 

LARRY CRAIG, Idaho 

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas 

MIKE DEWINE, Ohio 

SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas 

WAYNE ALLARD, Colorado 

ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia 

DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii 

PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont 

TOM HARKIN, Iowa 

BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland 

HARRY REID, Nevada 

HERB KOHL, Wisconsin 

PATTY MURRAY, Washington 

BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota 

DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California 

RICHARD J. DURBIN, Illinois 

TIM JOHNSON, South Dakota 

MARY L. LANDRIEU, Louisiana 

J. KEITH KENNEDY, Staff Director 

TERRENCE E. SAUVAIN, Minority Staff Director 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, SCIENCE, AND RELATED AGENCIES

RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama, Chairman 

JUDD GREGG, New Hampshire 

TED STEVENS, Alaska 

PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico 

MITCH MCCONNELL, Kentucky 

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas 

SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas 

CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri 

THAD COCHRAN, Mississippi (ex officio) 

BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland 

DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii 

PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont 

HERB KOHL, Wisconsin 

PATTY MURRAY, Washington 

TOM HARKIN, Iowa 

BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota 

ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia 

(ex officio) 

Professional Staff 

ART CAMERON

ALLEN CUTLER

JAMES HAYES

RACHELLE SCHROEDER

GOODLOE SUTTON

PAUL CARLINER (Minority) 

GABRIELLE BATKIN (Minority) 

ALEXA SEWELL (Minority) 

KATE FITZPATRICK (Minority) 

Administrative Support 

AUGUSTA WILSON
(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

Page 

Opening Statement of Senator Richard C. Shelby ................................................ 1 

Statement of Senator Barbara A. Mikulski ........................................................... 2 

Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. (USN, Ret.), Under 

Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere; and Administrator, 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce ..................................................................................................................... 3 

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, Department of Commerce ......................... 3 

Hurricane-related Support ...................................................................................... 4 

2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook .............................................................. 4 

Multi-decadal Climate Patterns ............................................................................. 5 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Efforts to Improve Hurricane Predictions ................................................................................................... 6 

Hurricane Preparation ............................................................................................ 6 

Prepared Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr ..................... 7 

NOAA Provided Critical Information and Support Before and After the 2005 

Hurricanes ............................................................................................................ 7 

2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook .............................................................. 8 

Multi-decadal Climate Patterns ............................................................................. 8 

NOAA Efforts to Improve Hurricane Predictions ................................................. 9 

Aircraft Reconnaissance Data ................................................................................. 10 

NOAA Encourages Everyone to Prepare ............................................................... 10 

Biographical Sketch of Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr ............................................ 11 

Biographical Sketch of Dr. Louis W. Uccellini ...................................................... 12 

Statement of Dr. Louis Uccellini ............................................................................ 13 

Prediction of Future Storm Activity ....................................................................... 13 

Staffing for Forecasters ........................................................................................... 14 

Hurricane Season Preparedness ............................................................................. 14 

Technical Support .................................................................................................... 16 

Evacuation Routes ................................................................................................... 17 

National Centers for Environmental Prediction ................................................... 17 

Information Processing and Prediction Cycle ........................................................ 18 

Hurricane Prediction Model .................................................................................... 19 

Surge Prediction ...................................................................................................... 20 

Hurricane Liaison Team ......................................................................................... 21 

Tsunami Preparedness ............................................................................................ 22 

Deepwater Detection Buoys .................................................................................... 23 

Addressing the Gaps Remaining in Tsunami Preparedness ................................ 24 

Notification of Governors ........................................................................................ 25 

Weather Prediction .................................................................................................. 25 

Storm Surge Forecasts ............................................................................................ 26 

Coastal Zone Management Act ............................................................................... 27 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Priorities ............................ 27 

(1) 

OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON 

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 7, 2006 

U.S. SENATE,

SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, 

SCIENCE, AND RELATED AGENCIES, 

COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS, 

Washington, DC. 

The subcommittee met at 10:28 a.m., in room SD–192, Dirksen 

Senate Office Building, Hon. Richard C. Shelby (chairman) presiding. 

Present: Senators Shelby, Mikulski, and Murray. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR RICHARD C. SHELBY

Senator SHELBY. Good morning. This hearing will come to order. 

We are here to discuss the important upcoming hurricane season. 

This is an important topic, and one that will get considerable attention in the months ahead as we reflect on the devastating 2005 

hurricane season. 

We’re pleased to have with us today the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, Vice Admiral Conrad 

Lautenbacher. He is joined by Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, the Director 

of the National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Thank you both for appearing before the subcommittee. 

I would like to extend my appreciation to Dr. Uccellini, who is 

making a last-minute appearance, as Max Mayfield was unable to 

join us. 

I would like to begin by commending NOAA for its work surrounding last year’s hurricanes. Predictions for Hurricane Katrina 

were especially well prepared, and undoubtedly saved countless 

lives. The work that goes into forecasting these storms should not 

be taken for granted. Congress recognizes the extraordinary effort 

and critical expertise NOAA provides the Nation. Emergency coordination after the storm is critical to helping our coastal communities. When it came to post-hurricane support, NOAA was one of 

the Federal agencies that provided quick, competent response on 

the water, in the air, and on the ground. 

The Office of Coast Survey mapped the ports for the purpose of 

safe navigation so they could reopen quickly. NOAA’s Cessna Citation aircraft flew two to three missions each day, stopping only to 

refuel, to provide aerial photography of the affected areas. The National Weather Service provided emergency responders with 

realtime weather updates directly from the local weather offices to 

those in the field. 
2 

The Office of Response and Restoration continues to help coordinate and mitigate marine debris removal. These services directly 

helped local and State emergency responders immediately following 

the hurricanes. 

As we enter the 2006 hurricane season, the subcommittee will be 

looking for you to use the lessons learned from last year to make 

good decisions this year. We’re very interested in hearing about the 

communication and coordination shortfalls you had identified during your post-hurricane evaluations last year, how you have prepared to overcome those challenges now, and what additional 

measures need to be taken to address any future challenges that 

NOAA recognizes may be problematic. Only by generating a systematic and clear list of your needs can Congress better serve you. 

Gentlemen, we look forward to your testimony today. All of your 

written testimony will be made part of the record. 

Senator Mikulski. 

STATEMENT OF SENATOR BARBARA A. MIKULSKI

Senator MIKULSKI. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. And I 

want to thank you for your leadership in conducting this hearing. 

Because you and I are coastal Senators, we are absolutely, of 

course, directly impacted by hurricanes. What you lived through in 

the gulf, along with our colleagues, was stunning. 

I, too, want to welcome Admiral Lautenbacher, Dr. Uccellini. 

Why do I know how to say his name? He’s a Maryland constituent. 

Senator SHELBY. You’re doing better than I’m doing. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Well, if you can get through Mikulski, you get 

to Uccellini. 

And, also, we wish Max Mayfield, the head of the Hurricane Prediction Center, well. We want to compliment NOAA on the fact 

that, at the Hurricane Prediction Center, they have a familiar and 

trusted voice. We’ve heard Mr. Mayfield over the years, and I think 

all of America knows, when we need to know about hurricanes, it 

comes out of one place, one voice, and that voice is viewed as trusted. And we need to make sure that’s happening. 

This is a very timely hearing, because it’s the first week of hurricane season, which will go from now until mid-October. NOAA, 

alarmingly, predicted that 2006 will be very active. Up to six hurricanes could be a category 3. What we need to make sure is that 

we have the most accurate prediction. Better prediction means better protection. And we know our mutual motto is, ‘‘Saving lives and 

saving properties.’’ We know that it only takes one hurricane to 

devastate a community. 

Mr. Chairman, on Monday I visited NOAA’s National Centers for 

Environmental Prediction, in Camp Springs, Maryland, in Prince 

George’s County. It’s a tremendous national asset, developing and 

operating models for forecasters to predict where hurricanes will 

make landfall, how intense that hurricane is, and how—what is the 

surge, to predict how much flooding could either come up my bay, 

the gulf coast, or inland flooding. The models that they develop 

there are the roadmaps for weather forecasters nationwide. Without the experts in Camp Springs, the Hurricane Center cannot do 

its job. So, it’s very important that—and if you went out there, you 

see that they’re working on hurricanes, helping predict the condi-
3 

tions that could precipitate the wildfires, and many others. It is, 

kind of, the brain center, with the supercomputing model being— 

the supercomputer being in Gaithersburg. Why is that good? Well, 

not only do—am I proud that it’s in my State, but they are literally 

out of, in many ways, harm’s way of a hurricane. So, people think 

the Hurricane Center is in Miami, but that’s in harm’s way, and, 

as you know, from Katrina, when our own defenders and predictors 

go down, then there’s only more vulnerability. 

So, today we need to know, How good are we at predicting, what 

we can do to work with you. What—I will tell you, what I was so 

impressed with was, sure, I saw new mathematical models; sure, 

I saw innovative technology; but, Mr. Chairman, what I saw were 

people—forecasters, mathematicians, all types of scientists—who 

read and analyze data. And we’re lucky to be able to recruit them, 

and we need to also focus on how we can retain them. We need to 

make that weather service better, faster, stronger. They’ve got the 

will. Now let’s you and I work together to find the wallet. 

I look forward to hearing the testimony. 

Senator SHELBY. Thank you, Senator Mikulski. 

Admiral, we’ll start with you. 

STATEMENT OF VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR. (USN, 

RET.), UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE; AND ADMINISTRATOR, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

ACCOMPANIED BY DR. LOUIS W. UCCELLINI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL 

CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION, NATIONAL 

WEATHER SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Senator SHELBY. Proceed as you wish. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Yes, sir. 

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and ranking member, Senator Mikulski, and distinguished members of the subcommittee and 

the staff. We appreciate the opportunity to appear before you and 

discuss the topic of the day. 

First let me express my regrets for Max Mayfield, who could not 

be here today. We appreciate you giving him a bye. He has bronchitis, and we want to make sure he’s ready for the season. 

But I have with me today, as you mentioned, Dr. Louis 

Uccellini—we’ll just call him Louis—the head of the National 

Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. 

Senator SHELBY. I think we have his name down now, Uccellini. 

OPENING STATEMENT

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. But, as we all know, Max is well known 

by the public, but this man should be just as well known, because 

his work—he’s really the head of the brain of NOAA, in terms of 

providing the weather forecasts that go out all over the Nation to 

all of our forecast offices. So, every prediction that you see out 

there in forecast has a bit of Louis in it, in the work that he does. 

So, it’s a very important role that he plays, and he does it well, and 

I’m proud to be associated with this organization and the people 

who work in NOAA. They are very dedicated, talented individuals. 
4 

I also want to express my gratitude to you and the subcommittee 

for your support and hard work on our behalf. It has allowed us 

to continue to support the Nation, as required, and we’re very, very 

grateful for the kinds of support and interest that we have from 

this subcommittee. For instance, the hurricane supplemental funding that was approved recently has been fully distributed and is 

now being used, as directed. It includes funding for forecast model 

improvements, storm surge and inland hurricane forecasting improvements, and the procurement of an additional Hurricane 

Hunter aircraft. Thank you, again, for your support. This support 

will make a big difference in our ability to improve our forecasts 

for the future. 

HURRICANE-RELATED SUPPORT

Just a couple of comments on the—on last year’s season, because 

of its record-breaking issues, in many ways. From our perspective, 

hurricane forecasts for Katrina and Rita were some of the most accurate ever for storm track, size, intensity, surge, and warning 

leadtime, allowing for evacuation of 85 to 90 percent, or more, of 

the Texas and Louisiana coasts. And while Katrina and Rita are 

blamed for over 1,200 deaths, it may well have been much, much 

worse, as we all know. 

And, as the chairman mentioned, our work does not end with the 

forecasts. We immediately responded, after the destructive hurricanes had passed, by providing the aerial images, by providing 

realtime storm tide-level information to emergency responders, employing satellite imagery to determine coastal impacts, assessing 

the hazardous materials spills, surveying critical ports and waterways, redirecting NOAA ships to impacted areas, and contributing 

$4.3 million from our budget to States for environmental enforcement after the event. 

Our wide-ranging capabilities continue to support the impacted 

areas even now, with response to spills, maritime incidents, rebuilding fisheries, and delivering consistent and timely geodetic 

height information very important to restoration. NOAA can, and 

will, continue to bring more to the table than just our forecasts. 

And, again, your continued support of NOAA, across the board, is 

critical to our ability to add value to science for the American people, and we appreciate the total support that NOAA gains from this 

subcommittee. 

2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

Now, for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, everywhere we go, 

this is an important question. People want to know how many hurricanes there will be, and if one will hit their area. The news 

media—and this hearing, I might add—also gives our seasonal 

forecasts high visibility, helping to raise awareness about the 

threat of hurricanes. I thank you, again, for this opportunity to 

raise that awareness. 

The official season, as mentioned, started June 1, and goes 

through November 30, with the average peak of hurricane activity 

occurring with the warmest water temperatures, from mid-August 

to late October. Our prediction for this year’s Atlantic hurricane 

season is for 13 to 16 tropical storms, with 8 to 10 becoming hurri-
5 

canes, of which 4 to 6 could become major hurricanes. For comparison, on average, the North Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 

named storms, with 6 becoming hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a storm category 3 or higher on the 

Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which means winds greater than 

110 miles per hour. Major hurricanes cause about 80 percent of the 

damage sustained from tropical cyclones. This year’s forecast has 

an 80 percent likelihood of an above-average number of storms in 

the Atlantic basin. That’s the highest level of confidence we’ve had 

in a number of years. 

Our forecast for this season is based primarily on the continuing 

multidecadal signal in the global tropics. This year, the signal indicates favorable atmospheric—including wind and pressure patterns—and oceanic—warm sea-surface temperature—conditions for 

hurricane formations. 

Another question that is frequently raised is the role climate 

change plays in hurricane frequency and intensity. This is an extremely important issue to NOAA. Our meteorologists and research 

scientists in several areas of our organization are actively engaged 

in ongoing research to better understand how climate variability 

and change may impact hurricane frequency and intensity. 

Last year was a record-setting season: 28 storms, 15 hurricanes, 

of which 7 became major. We saw, all too vividly, the destruction 

and devastation hurricanes can cause. This is why it is important 

not to focus only on the total number of storms. The message is 

that we all need to be prepared. 

MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE PATTERNS

We have observed that steering patterns for major hurricane 

landfalls can sometimes persist over several years. During the 

1940s, many major hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s, the 

focus of landfalling hurricanes shifted to the U.S. east coast. And 

during the 1960s, the central and western gulf coast were slammed 

by several hurricanes. This pattern might lead someone to assume, 

given the recent major hurricanes, like Charley, Ivan, Jean, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in the last 2 years, that Florida and 

the gulf coast are likely targets again this season. However, there 

are always exceptions, and it only takes one hurricane, over a 

given community, to make it a bad year. 

In 1983, for instance, there was only one landfalling hurricane in 

the United States, but it was category 3 Hurricane Alicia, which 

hit the Galveston and Houston area. And in 1992, we likewise, had 

only one hurricane. That was category 5 Hurricane Andrew. The 

point of this is that no one can tell us reliably, months in advance, 

when or where hurricanes are going to strike. The state of science 

is simply not advanced enough at this time to do that. The bottom 

line is that all coastal States, from Texas to Maine, including Alabama and Maryland, Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in the Pacific 

and the Caribbean, are vulnerable to the devastation brought by a 

hurricane. Our message is consistent. We want every business, 

every family, every individual, and every community on or near the 

coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan, and have it in place 

at the start of the hurricane season. 
6 

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION EFFORTS TO

IMPROVE HURRICANE PREDICTIONS

Now, improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for the administration. NOAA has made great strides in improving our hurricane track forecasting. Our 5-day forecasts are now as accurate as 

3-day forecasts were 15 years ago. NOAA spends over $300 million 

per year to track and forecast hurricanes. For 2007, we are requesting $109 million in increases for hurricane-related investments. We are focusing our hurricane efforts on improving hurricane track and intensity forecasting through improved observations, modeling, and the continuation of a very effective method 

called ‘‘joint hurricane testbeds.’’ 

Our equipment is also critical. NOAA aircraft, the P–3 Orions 

and the Gulf Stream IV, provide essential observations and data 

critical to the National Hurricane Center forecasters and supplement the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flights. The $14.2 million 

that NOAA received in the 2006 supplemental appropriations to 

improve future aircraft service will add an additional P–3 next year 

and upgrade the radar and instrumentation on all of NOAA’s aircraft, an important investment. 

HURRICANE PREPARATION

We encourage everyone to prepare. We work year-round with 

Federal, State, and local emergency managers. We educate them 

about weather effects from hurricanes, and they educate us about 

response issues and their challenges. It is a constant learning process, and the key is working together to ensure the public takes appropriate action. 

Most preparedness activity and outreach take place outside the 

hurricane season. Last month, as part of our ongoing mission to enhance economic security and national safety, NOAA led a hurricane 

awareness tour along the gulf coast. The tour helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a hurricane landfall with the 

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), local governments, emergency managers, schools, the public, and the media, in 

a team effort to increase hurricane awareness and encourage preparedness in this vulnerable area of the Nation. 

During landfalling storms, it is essential for the emergency management community and the weather community to have one message for the public so that businesses and people can take appropriate action. Nowhere is this more critical than in areas most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane. 

In conclusion, the truth is no one knows exactly what areas of 

the coast, or which States, or locations within those States, if any, 

will be impacted by hurricanes in 2006. Could it be Florida again? 

Maybe. How about New England or New York City? That’s possible, but, right now we just do not know. We also need to remember that a hurricane is not just a coastal event. The strong winds, 

heavy rains, and tornados from weakening tropical systems can 

spread well inland and cause tremendous damage. 

Having said that, Katrina is a grim reminder that the greatest 

potential for large loss of life is from the storm surge near the 

coast. The bottom line is that all coastal States and territories are 
7 

at risk. Everyone along the coast must be prepared well in advance 

to protect their lives and property in the event of a hurricane. 

Again, thank you to the subcommittee for your support and your 

interest in holding this hearing. We are ready to answer your questions. 

Thank you, sir. 

[The statement follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR. 

Chairman Shelby, Ranking Member Mikulski and Members of the Committee, I 

am Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and 

Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 

the Department of Commerce (DOC). I am joined by Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director 

of NOAA’s National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Thank you for inviting us here today to discuss the outlook for the 2006 

Hurricane Season, and to talk about what we can each do to be best prepared to 

protect lives and livelihoods in the event of a hurricane. 

First, let me express my sincere gratitude to the members of this Committee. 

Your continued support of NOAA and our hurricane program enables us to make 

the best forecasts possible, helping ensure the people of our Nation understand the 

potential impacts from hurricanes and what they can do to protect their life and 

property. The fiscal year 2006 Hurricane Supplemental Funding approved by Congress has been fully distributed and is being used as directed, including funding 

forecast model improvements, storm surge and inland hurricane forecasting improvements, and the procurement of an additional Hurricane Hunter aircraft. 

Thank you again for your support. 

NOAA PROVIDED CRITICAL INFORMATION AND SUPPORT BEFORE AND AFTER THE 2005

HURRICANES

Before I discuss the details of the 2006 hurricane outlook, I would like to briefly 

highlight one of NOAA’s most notable successes in recent memory—our performance 

during the 2005 season. 

Among our many hurricane-related missions, NOAA has the primary responsibility to provide weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its 

territories. NOAA’s forecasts and warnings for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane 

Rita pushed the limits of state-of-the-art hurricane prediction. NOAA’s National 

Weather Service (NWS) operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and 

forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the 

national economy. In partnership with the Department of Defense, NASA, the National Science Foundation, other federal agencies, and the academic community, the 

long-term continuous research efforts, including observations, modeling, and expanded computational resources have led to NOAA’s current predictive capabilities 

and improved ways of describing uncertainty in prediction. Reconnaissance data 

from NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft provided critical data NOAA forecasters 

used for their accurate hurricane predictions. Hurricane forecasts for Katrina and 

Rita were some of the most accurate ever for storm track, size, intensity, surge, and 

warning lead time, allowing for evacuation of 85–90 percent or more of the Texas 

and Louisiana coasts. While Katrina and Rita are blamed for over 1,200 deaths, it 

may well have been much, much worse. 

But NOAA’s work does not end with the forecast. This was particularly evident 

last August, when NOAA responded immediately to the destructive hurricanes in 

several ways. NOAA provided over 9,500 aerial images of the impacted coastline to 

help emergency responders assess the situation, analyzed satellite imagery to determine the coastal impacts, and sent Scientific Support Coordinators to address nearly 

400 hazardous material spills. We also sent Navigation Response Teams to survey 

for obstructions to navigation in critical ports and waterways to allow relief supplies 

to be delivered and maritime commerce to resume. NOAA ships THOMAS JEFFERSON and NANCY FOSTER were diverted from planned missions to areas impacted 

by the hurricanes and helped collect data needed to reopen critical Gulf Coast ports 

and to assess impacts on Gulf Coast ports and fisheries. Immediately following the 

storms, NOAA contributed $4.3 million to the States to assist with environmental 

enforcement and search-and-rescue. Readings from NOAA’s National Water Level 

Observation Network (NWLON) tide stations in the region provided emergency responders with real time storm tides, and are now invaluable data that can be used 

in planning the rebuilding of the coast. 
8 

NOAA’s wide-ranging capabilities continue to support the impacted areas with re- sponse to spills and maritime incidents. NOAA invested more than $3.7 million in 

2005 grant funding to Gulf States to build, and in some cases re-build, their infrastructure and capacity to determine and deliver consistent and timely geodetic 

height information. Accurate land and water level heights are critical to determining effective highway evacuation routes, levee heights, storm surge modeling, 

flood plain mapping, sea level rise calculations, vessel under-keel and bridge clearance, subsidence monitoring, and restoration of coastal habitats. So, as you see, 

NOAA can and will continue to bring more to the table than just our forecasts. Your 

continued support of NOAA across the board is critical to our ability to add value 

to science for the American people. 

2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

Everywhere we go we are asked about the forecast for this hurricane season. People want to know how many hurricanes there will be and if one will hit their area. 

The media also gives these seasonal forecasts high visibility, and this can have a 

very positive effect because it raises awareness about the threat from hurricanes 

and encourages businesses and people to prepare for what might happen. 

The official hurricane season started June 1st and goes through November 30th, 

with the average peak of hurricane activity occurring with the warmest water temperatures, from mid-August to late October. NOAA’s prediction for the 2006 Atlantic 

hurricane season is for 13–16 tropical storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, 

of which four to six could become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a storm 

Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, with winds greater than 

110 miles per hour. Major hurricanes cause about 80 percent of the damage sustained from tropical storms. We are predicting an 80 percent likelihood of an above 

average number of storms in the Atlantic Basin this season. This is the highest percentage we have ever issued. Our forecast for this season is based primarily on the 

continuing Multi-Decadal Signal in the global tropics—a climate pattern that has 

been in place since 1995. Since the mid-1990s, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons 

have been above normal, with only two below normal seasons during the El Nin ̃ o 

years of 1997 and 2002. This Multi-decadal signal will likely keep us in an active 

period for major hurricanes for another 10 to 20 years or more. 

Warmer ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean 

combined with expected weaker easterly trade winds and a more favorable wind 

pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are factors that collectively will favor 

storms in greater numbers and greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source 

for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart 

a storm’s building cloud structure. 

NOAA is actively engaged in ongoing research to understand how climate variability and change may affect hurricane frequency and intensity. For example, climate effects from outside the Atlantic basin, such as El Nin ̃ o/Southern Oscillation 

(ENSO), can impact hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. This year, however, 

NOAA scientists predict neutral ENSO conditions, which means neither El Nin ̃ o 

conditions (which tend to suppress hurricane formation) nor La Nin ̃ a conditions 

(which tend to favor hurricane formation) will be a factor in this year’s hurricane 

season. 

Last year was a record-setting hurricane season, with 28 storms and 15 hurricanes, of which seven were major hurricanes. We saw all too vividly the destruction 

and devastation individual hurricanes can cause. This is why it is important not to 

focus only on the total number of storms. The message is clear. We all need to be 

prepared. 

MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE PATTERNS

As mentioned above, we have observed that steering patterns for major hurricane 

landfalls can sometimes persist over several years. During the 1940s many major 

hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s, the focus of land falling hurricane shifted 

to the U.S. East Coast. During the 1960s, the central and western Gulf Coast were 

slammed by several hurricanes. 

This pattern might lead one to assume that—given the recent major hurricanes 

like Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2004 and 2005— 

Florida and the Gulf Coast are likely targets again this season. However, in each 

of these decades there were exceptions. For example, in the 1940s, while most 

storms hit Florida, two made landfall in the Gulf, and one made landfall in New 

England. In addition, in the 1930s, major land falling hurricanes were relatively 

well distributed along the U.S. coastline—hitting the U.S. coast from Texas to New 

England. Consequently, while it is possible to observe these trends and make gen-
9 

eralizations based upon these observations—it is important to understand that in 

any given year a hurricane can impact any part of the U.S. coastline from Texas 

to Maine. Coastal communities along the Gulf and East Coasts (in addition to Hawaii and other interests in the Pacific and Caribbean) remain at risk for hurricanes, 

and the business community and the public must be prepared to respond if a situation arises. 

It only takes one hurricane over a given community to make for a bad year. In 

1983, there was only one landfalling hurricane in the United States, but it was Category 3 Hurricane Alicia which hit the Galveston/Houston area. And in 1992, we 

only had one hurricane make landfall in the United States, but that was Category 

5 Hurricane Andrew, which hit southern Miami-Dade County, Florida. 

No one can tell us reliably, months in advance when or where hurricanes are 

going to strike. The state of the science is simply not advanced enough at this time 

to do that. The bottom line is that all coastal states from Texas to Maine, Hawaii, 

and other U.S. interests in the Pacific and the Caribbean are vulnerable to the devastation brought by a hurricane. The message from NOAA is very consistent. We 

want every business, every family, every individual, and every community on or 

near the coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan and have it in place at the 

start of hurricane season. 

NOAA EFFORTS TO IMPROVE HURRICANE PREDICTIONS

Improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for the Administration. NOAA 

has made great strides in improving hurricane track forecasting; our 5-day forecasts 

are now as accurate as 3-day forecasts were 15 years ago. NOAA spends over $300 

million per year to track and forecast hurricanes. In fiscal year 2007, we are requesting $109 million in increases for hurricane-related investments. 

NOAA is focused on improving hurricane track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall predictions. The accuracy of NOAA’s hurricane forecasts is closely tied to improvements in computer-based numerical weather prediction models. This year 

NOAA implemented advances in its hurricane forecasting model that are expected 

to yield improved track and intensity guidance for our forecasters. The Geophysical 

Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research 

(OAR) developed this hurricane model and incorporated it into operations at NWS’s 

National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). 

NOAA’s Central Computer System upgrade in fiscal year 2007 will increase computational speed, memory, and storage capabilities. This allows more sophisticated 

numerical models to run and make use of available data, including data from 

NOAA’s polar orbiting and geostationary satellites. We expect significant improvements in intensity, precipitation and wind distribution forecasting from the next 

generation operational modeling system. 

Predicting hurricane intensity remains one of our most difficult forecast challenges. We are all aware of the improvements made in predicting hurricane track 

forecasts and this has been where NOAA and the research community have, in the 

past, placed their emphasis. Within the past few years, the emphasis on improving 

intensity prediction has increased. Leading the way, in fiscal year 2007 NOAA plans 

to introduce a new hurricane modeling system developed by NCEP’s Environmental 

Modeling Center called the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model 

(HWRF). 

Congress supported this effort in the fiscal year 2006 Hurricane Supplemental 

Funding, and HWRF implementation and development is included in the fiscal year 

2007 President’s Budget request. The HWRF will be a coupled atmosphere-ocean 

prediction system that will take advantage of the latest atmosphere and ocean observations, the most advanced methods to analyze those data, and state of the art 

physics to produce our Nation’s next generation hurricane forecast system. Once the 

HWRF becomes operational, our goal is to improve hurricane intensity predictions 

by about 30 percent by 2015. 

Hurricane Katrina is a grim reminder that the greatest potential for economic destruction and large loss of life is from the storm surge near the coast. Storm surge 

is also very difficult to predict because it depends on the hurricane track and wind 

field, but it also is impacted by bathymetry and natural and man-made barriers, 

such as dunes and roadways. A slight difference in track or wind field can mean 

a huge difference in where the highest storm surge impacts the coast. 

We believe the NOAA Storm Surge Model, known as SLOSH (Sea, Lake and 

Overland, Surge from Hurricanes) provided excellent guidance during last year’s 

hurricanes. We realize many other storm surge models exist, and NOAA recently 

formed an assessment team to re-examine our users’ requirements for real-time 
10 

storm surge information and products, to direct storm surge modeling within NOAA, 

and to plan for future enhancement of, or the replacement of, the SLOSH model. 

NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) Hurricane Research Division (HRD) also conducts research to better understand internal 

storm dynamics and interactions between a hurricane and the surrounding atmosphere and ocean. AOML’s scientists provide data and information to operational 

NOAA forecasters for use in models. Through a greater understanding of physical 

processes and advanced hurricane modeling, in collaboration with federal partners, 

academic researchers, and commercial enterprises, NOAA continually improves 

models for predicting hurricane intensity and track. 

To help guide future research efforts, NOAA’s Science Advisory Board commissioned a Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group to provide recommendations 

to the agency on the direction of hurricane intensity research. The Working Group 

expects to transmit its final report to the Science Advisory Board in July 2006. The 

National Science Board of the National Science Foundation has also convened a 

working group of external advisors to review hurricane science and engineering. The 

final report from this group is scheduled to be submitted to the National Science 

Board in August 2006. Recommendations from these reports will be carefully considered by NOAA as we plan our efforts to improve our operations and predictions. 

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA

NOAA aircraft, the W–P3 Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide essential observations critical to the National Hurricane Center forecasters and supplement the 

U.S. Air Force Reserve Command’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flights. 

The $14.2 million NOAA received in fiscal year 2006 supplemental appropriations 

to improve future aircraft service will add an additional W–P3 next year, and upgrade the radar and instrumentation on all of NOAA’s aircraft. 

A specialized instrument flown on the W–P3s, the Stepped Frequency Microwave 

Radiometer (SFMR), was developed by NOAA researchers at AOML and provides 

essential data on hurricane structure, surface wind and rain rate to hurricane forecasters. The SFMR allows forecasters and researchers to see fluctuations in hurricane intensity not observed before. The Military Construction Appropriations and 

Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 (Public Law 108–324) 

provided $10.5 million to the Air Force to outfit the complete fleet of Hurricane 

Hunters with this instrument. We hope the first of these additional units will be 

available toward the end of the 2006 Hurricane Season. 

NOAA ENCOURAGES EVERYONE TO PREPARE

We work year-round with federal, state, and local emergency managers; we educate them about weather effects from hurricanes and they educate us about response issues and their challenges. It is a constant learning process and the key is 

working together to ensure the public takes appropriate action. Most preparedness 

activity and outreach takes place outside hurricane season. Last month, as part of 

our ongoing mission to enhance economic security and national safety, NOAA led 

a Hurricane Awareness Tour along the Gulf Coast. The tour helped raise awareness 

about the potential effects from a hurricane landfall. The National Weather Service 

forecast offices arranged the tour events with the Federal Emergency Management 

Agency, local governments, emergency managers, schools, the public and the media 

in a team effort to increase hurricane awareness and encourage preparedness in this 

vulnerable area of the nation. During land falling storms, it is essential for the 

emergency management community and the weather community to have one message for the public so businesses and people can take appropriate action. Nowhere 

is this more critical than in areas most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane. 

While NOAA will continue to do its best to provide as much warning as possible, 

it is my hope that each business, each family, and each community, on or near the 

coast, will develop and be able to execute a hurricane preparedness plan. We must 

all be ready to protect our lives and property from the power of hurricanes. 

CONCLUSION

The truth is, right now, no one knows exactly what areas of the coast, or which 

states or locations within those states, if any, a hurricane will hit in 2006. Could 

it be the Gulf Coast again? Maybe. How about New England or New York City? 

That’s possible, but, right now we just don’t know. We also need to remember a hurricane is not just a coastal event. The strong winds, heavy rains and tornadoes from 

weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause tremendous damage. 

The chart below shows the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851. 

I think most people can look at this graphic and understand that the United States 
11 

is vulnerable to hurricanes. The bottom line is that all coastal states from Texas 

to Maine, Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in the Pacific and the Caribbean are at 

risk. Everyone along the coast, including inland communities, must be prepared to 

protect their lives and property in the event of a hurricane. Thank you. 

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR. 

A native of Philadelphia, Pa., retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, 

Ph.D., is serving as the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere. 

He was appointed Dec. 19, 2001. Along with this title comes the added distinction 

of serving as the eighth Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He holds an M.S. and Ph.D. from Harvard University in applied mathematics. 

Lautenbacher oversees the day-to-day functions of NOAA, as well as laying out 

its strategic and operational future. The agency manages an annual budget of $4 

billion. The agency includes, and is comprised of, the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services; National Marine Fisheries Service; National 

Ocean Service; National Weather Service; Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; Marine and Aviation Operations; and the NOAA Corps, the nation’s seventh uniformed 

service. He directed an extensive review and reorganization of the NOAA corporate 

structure to meet the environmental challenges of the 21st century. 

As the NOAA Administrator, Lautenbacher spearheaded the first-ever Earth Observation Summit, which hosted ministerial-level representation from several dozen 

of the world’s nations in Washington July 2003. Through subsequent international 

summits and working groups, he worked to encourage world scientific and policy 

leaders to work toward a common goal of building a sustained Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) that would collect and disseminate data, information and models to stakeholders and decision makers for the benefit of all nations 

individually and the world community collectively. The effort culminated in an 

agreement for a 10-year implementation plan for GEOSS reached by the 55 member 

countries of the Group on Earth Observations at the Third Observation Summit 

held in Brussels February 2005. 

He also has headed numerous delegations at international governmental summits 

and conferences around the world, including the U.S. delegation to 2002 Asia-Pacific 

Economic Cooperation Ocean Ministerial Meeting in Korea, and 2002 and 2003 

meetings of the World Meteorological Organization and Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission in Switzerland and France, as well as leading the Commerce 

delegation to the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in South Africa. 

Before joining NOAA, Lautenbacher formed his own management consultant business, and worked principally for Technology, Strategies & Alliances Inc. He was 
12 

president and CEO of the Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education 

(CORE). This not-for-profit organization has a membership of 76 institutions of 

higher learning and a mission to increase basic knowledge and public support across 

the spectrum of ocean sciences. 

Lautenbacher is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy (Class of 1964), and has 

won accolades for his performance in a broad range of operational, command and 

staff positions both ashore and afloat. He retired after 40 years of service in the 

Navy. His military career was marked by skilled fiscal management and significant 

improvements in operations through performance-based evaluations of processes. 

During his time in the Navy, he was selected as a Federal Executive Fellow and 

served at the Brookings Institution. He served as a guest lecturer on numerous occasions at the Naval War College, the Army War College, the Air War College, The 

Fletcher School of Diplomacy, and the components of the National Defense University. 

His Navy experience includes tours as Commanding Officer of USS HEWITT 

(DD–966), Commander Naval Station Norfolk; Commander of Cruiser-Destroyer 

Group Five with additional duties as Commander U.S. Naval Forces Central Command Riyadh during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, where he was in 

charge of Navy planning and participation in the air campaign. As Commander U.S. 

Third Fleet, he introduced joint training to the Pacific with the initiation of the first 

West Coast Joint Task Force Training Exercises (JTFEXs). 

A leader in the introduction of cutting-edge information technology, he pioneered 

the use of information technology to mount large-scale operations using sea-based 

command and control. As Assistant for Strategy with the Chief of Naval Operations 

Executive Panel, and Program Planning Branch Head in the Navy Program Planning Directorate, he continued to hone his analytic skills resulting in designation 

as a specialist both in Operations Analysis and Financial Management. During his 

final tour of duty, he served as Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Resources, Warfare Requirements and Assessments) in charge of Navy programs and budget. 

Lautenbacher lives in Northern Virginia with his wife Susan who is a life-long 

high school and middle school science teacher. 

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF DR. LOUIS W. UCCELLINI

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini is currently the Director of the National Weather Service, 

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In his position, he is responsible for directing and planning the science, technology and operations related 

to NCEP’s Central Operations and Environmental Modeling Center as well as seven 

national centers that forecast specific weather phenomena. These centers include 

the National Hurricane Center (Miami, FL), Storm Prediction Center (Norman, OK), 

Space Environment Center (Boulder, CO), Ocean Prediction Center, 

Hydrometeorological Prediction Centers, Climate Prediction Center and Aviation 

Weather Center (Kansas City, MO). 

Prior, Dr. Uccellini was the Director of the NWS Office of Meteorology from 1994 

to 1999; Chief of the NWS Meteorological Operations Division from 1989 to 1994; 

and Section Head for the Mesoscale Analysis and Modeling Section in the Goddard 

Space Flight Center’s Laboratory for Atmospheres from 1978 to 1989. 

He received his Ph.D. (1977), Masters (1972) and Bachelor of Science (1971), degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Uccellini has published more 

than 55 journal articles and chapters in books on subjects including analysis of severe weather outbreaks, snowstorms, gravity waves, jet streaks, cyclones and the 

use of satellite data in analysis and modeling applications. He is the co-author of 

a widely acclaimed book entitled Snowstorms Along the Northeastern Coast of the 

United States: 1955 to 1985, which was published by the American Meteorological 

Society in 1990; and authored a chapter in the 1999 AMS publication The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones that provides a historical review of advances in forecasting extratropical cyclones at NCEP. Also in the Fall of 2004, a new two-volume 

book: Northeast Snowstorms, co-authored by Dr. Uccellini, was published by the 

American Meteorological Society. 

Dr. Uccellini has received numerous awards in recognition of his research and 

operational achievements including the Maryland Academy of Sciences Distinguished Young Scientist Award (1981), the NASA Medal for Exceptional Scientific 

Achievement (1985), the American Meteorological Society’s prestigious Clarence 

Leroy Meisinger Award (1985), and the National Weather Association’s Research 

Achievement Awards for Significant Contributions to Operational Meteorology 

(1996). He was elected as a Fellow to the AMS in 1987, and received the U.S. Presidential Meritorious Executive Rank Award in 2001. 
13 

Senator SHELBY. Dr. Uccellini. Is that right? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. No, he’s just asking you if that’s the 

right pronunciation. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Yes, it is. Dr. Uccellini. 

Senator SHELBY. Uccellini. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. 

Senator SHELBY. Uccellini. I thought the Senator from Maryland 

would certainly get it right. Go ahead. 

STATEMENT OF DR. LOUIS UCCELLINI

Dr. UCCELLINI. Well, most of my comments would be included in 

what you’ve just heard. 

I’ll just say, with respect to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, that the National Hurricane Center is one of 

seven service centers. I like to tell my family that, with Max 

Mayfield, when they see him on TV—they ask who he works for, 

and I tell them that we all work for Max, although on paper he reports to me. 

The National Centers provide the model, the IT infrastructure, 

to ensure that the National Hurricane Center works on time, every 

time. And, in that light, we also provide the critical backup to the 

National Hurricane Center. This was an issue last year, as we 

dealt with Hurricane Wilma, that crossed right over the Center. So, 

it is an issue we take very seriously. 

With respect to the past year and lessons learned, I want to assure you that all the model upgrades that have been planned, and 

which were accelerated through supplemental appropriations, have 

been implemented in time for the hurricane season, and that we’ve 

increased the number of forecasters in the National Hurricane Center. And we thank you for your support in that regard. 

We’ve implemented new techniques for hurricane track and intensity forecasts, and have the workstation software online to bring 

those to the fingertips of the forecasters at the National Hurricane 

Center. And, last, but not least, we have coordinated the numerous 

outreach activities, and we feel we’re ready for this season. 

PREDICTION OF FUTURE STORM ACTIVITY

Senator SHELBY. Last year was the strongest hurricane season 

on record, with 15 hurricanes, 4 of which were category 5, and 4 

making landfall. Doctor, given Admiral Lautenbacher’s statement 

regarding the forecast for 2006, do you expect a continued increase 

in storm activity? And, if so, for how many years? I know it’s a prediction. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Well, the numbers that we’re predicting have 

been brought forward, and they are less than what we had last 

year. 

Senator SHELBY. Less? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. They are less than what we actually had last 

year. But the prediction we made in May of last year, and updated 

in August, was also less than the actual number of storms that occurred in 2005. And one of the important factors that the folks in 

the Climate Prediction Center, who also work for me, said that the 

numbers that we’re predicting right now are actually larger than 

the numbers we brought forward in May of last year. So, the bot-
14 

tom line here is that we are expecting an active season. The conditions are ripe for an active season. Whether we approach the record 

season we had last year is something that our forecasters are not 

willing to put forward at this point. 

We will update this forecast in August, as we are in the middle 

of the season. 

Senator SHELBY. Last year, your predictions were, I thought, so 

accurate, considering it is a prediction. I know you can’t forecast 

everything in the future, but do you believe you have the tools to 

improve on your forecast and so forth? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Well, the forecasting of any weather event is a 

very difficult scientific problem. 

Senator SHELBY. It is. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. And, clearly, the more observations we have, the 

better we make our models, which are based on mathematical and 

physical principles, the larger the computers that we can bring to 

solving those problems on an on-time basis. This is something we 

have to do in real time, so we strive for those improvements. So, 

yes, we do a good job. We have the verifications to show that our 

forecasts are improving, but there are a lot of issues still facing us 

that we know we have to deal with, from a purely scientific point 

of view and also a technological point of view, to continue to improve those forecasts. 

STAFFING FOR FORECASTERS

Senator SHELBY. Admiral, what about the staffing situation at 

NOAA, for forecasters throughout the National Weather Service? Is 

it adequate? Do you need more? Senator Mikulski and I want to 

make sure you have the adequate resources, because the way your 

agency performed is exemplary. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Thank you. And I appreciate that. We 

have been very fortunate in being able to increase, because of your 

action, the number of forecasters in the Hurricane Center by four, 

whom we promoted from within the organization. We are in the 

process of making sure that all of the backfills for those people 

have been promoted, who are fully staffed—that the forecasting 

group is fully staffed for hurricanes this season. We continue to ask 

for support on the pay raises, because there has been some leveling 

off of our ability to provide backfill for pay raises when they are 

absorbed in the general budget. And so, the administration did ask 

for increases in pay raises for our forecasters this year, and I commend that, again, in the interest of the subcommittee. I think it’s 

very important for our morale. 

Senator SHELBY. You’ve got to keep the good people. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Yes, sir. 

HURRICANE SEASON PREPAREDNESS

Senator SHELBY. I understand that NOAA recently participated 

in some of the gulf States’ emergency management workshops as 

an essential Federal partner in the hurricane preparedness process. What’s your opinion on how the gulf States are preparing for 

the coming hurricane season, particularly with respect to the lessons learned from last year? Which one of y’all want to take that? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Well, maybe we can both—— 
15 

Senator SHELBY. Both, okay. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Both contribute. I have 

been down to the gulf coast personally to tour our facilities and 

talk to people, and I think there is new recognition, and very serious concern, about preparing, this year. And I’ve talked to several 

of the State directors. I know that Max does that all the time. So 

I don’t want to be complacent. I want to continue to get people serious about it, because I know there are always a few that don’t get 

the word. But the fact is, I think, that awareness is much higher, 

and we’re preparing to help them as much as we can this year. 

Senator SHELBY. Where are you, as far as helping the people in 

the gulf coast, and everywhere, to develop construction standards 

for hurricane-resistant structures and shelters? All of that’s important. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. It is very important, and we have a 

joint committee with NIST, the National Institute of Standards and 

Technology, which is part of the Department of Commerce—to take 

our modeling and look at their structural models—because they’re 

the ones that have to determine what these standards are. So, the 

issue here is to go from large-scale models that tell what’s going 

on in an area for winds and surge, and turn it into something that 

can be done locally and looked at by the structural engineers at 

NIST. And we are very dedicated to working on that problem with 

them. 

Senator SHELBY. Doctor, do you have anything to add to that? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Well, I was just going to add, on the outreach at 

the State and local levels, that the National Weather Service, 

Southern Region, headed by Bill Proenza, and the Eastern Region, 

headed by Dean Gulezian, have been very active in working with 

the State and local emergency management and other responders, 

first responders, with respect to reacting to the hurricane warnings 

and warnings that are associated with them. So, the National 

Weather Service has been active in our outreach—they do this 

every year, but this year, particularly, has been a focus. And I 

know that the staff in these forecast offices and in the regional offices have been right there all off-season to deal with these issues 

and making sure that the communities are ready. 

Senator SHELBY. I understand that NOAA works with FEMA, 

the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Corps of Engineers, and other 

Federal and State agencies, to assure a coordinated effort on preparedness for hurricanes and coastal flooding. Do you feel there 

has been significant coordination between all State and Federal 

agencies as we enter into this new hurricane season? 

Admiral. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I do. I have seen a lot more coordination, starting with the White House and working down into the 

local region. Response plans have been developed. The season has 

actually been sort of war-gamed at the highest level, at the Cabinet 

level, in which we’ve been involved. And we have participated, as 

Dr. Uccellini mentioned, at the local level, as well as at the Federal 

level. So, there has been, in my view, an enhanced degree of coordination and cooperation this year. I, personally, have talked to the 

new FEMA Director, and we’ve set up new coordinating bodies to 
16 

work together to look at the response that comes after a hurricane. 

And I’m feeling that we’re moving in the right direction. 

TECHNICAL SUPPORT

Senator SHELBY. What technical support or tools does NOAA provide during the rest of the year, to help the State and local governments undertake hazard mitigation, actions, and prepare communities? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. It’s ongoing. It’s ongoing all year. I 

know if Max Mayfield were here, he would tell you about the activities that he takes outside of the hurricane season. As he’s always said, the preparedness for this hurricane season takes place 

in the off season. He spends a great deal of time on the road, as 

many of our folks do, talking to, and making personal appearances. 

It is not just the hurricane awareness tour that I’ve talked to you 

about. So, there’s a great deal of outreach that goes on continuously, year round, from our folks. Now, we have the StormReady 

Program, which is exceedingly important. Every weather forecast 

office in our Nation is available. They have a warning coordinator/ 

meteorologist, who talks continuously to the county and city managers in that area, and who provides checksheets and ways to certify that county and city that they are ready and prepared for any 

emergency event, and that doubles—goes double along our coasts. 

Senator SHELBY. I also understand that NOAA has begun work— 

and probably has, in the past—in communities to create and improve their coastal inundation maps. How is this effort coordinated 

with updating the FEMA floodplain maps? And are the NOAA 

maps being created using the latest technologies, topography, and 

data and so forth? This is very important in another committee, the 

Banking Committee. You know we are working on the Flood Insurance Program there. Mapping is so important to all of it, is it not? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. It’s critical. And we work very closely 

with the Flood Hazard Mapping Program. We provide the elevation 

data, and we provide some of the charting of the coasts, and our 

models help determine the floodplain areas. That information all 

goes to FEMA and to the cognizant parts of State and local agencies. 

Senator SHELBY. So, that’ll ultimately wind up in the zoning and 

building codes, hopefully? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. It should. 

Senator SHELBY. In the local communities? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. It should wind up in the zoning and the 

building codes. Again, much of the zoning and building codes are 

local—— 

Senator SHELBY. We know. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Are local issues, and we 

work, to our utmost, to ensure the information is available to all 

local/regional emergency managers. 

Senator SHELBY. Do you know if any of the coastal communities—and I’ll speak from the gulf perspective, and let Senator Mikulski do the other, from the East have they adjusted their land 

use as a result of any of your maps? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I am not aware of that. I’m really not 

informed enough to answer the question. 
17 

Senator SHELBY. But, ultimately, they—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Take it back—— 

Senator SHELBY [continuing]. They should look at everything, 

from—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. They should. 

Senator SHELBY [continuing]. From flood and a propensity of hurricanes, everything, should they not? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Absolutely. 

EVACUATION ROUTES

Senator SHELBY. What about evacuation routes? Have you 

worked with FEMA, anybody, on that, in the States? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. We do work with evacuation routes 

with the emergency managers. It’s particularly important in the 

tsunami work that we’ve been doing, where there is more vulnerability on the west coast, but it’s something that every coast should 

be dealing with. Evacuation routes are part of the certification for 

StormReady, so we work with the emergency managers in each 

area to ensure that they have looked at the emergency routes. Our 

folks are not necessarily the experts, but they can provide the information on what makes sense. 

Senator SHELBY. I have some other questions, but I’m going to 

now recognize Senator Mikulski for any questions. 

NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION

Senator MIKULSKI. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Many 

of your questions are also mine. 

But I’d like to turn to Dr. Uccellini and ask this. We hear about 

the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. And what I’d 

like to share with my colleagues, this is not only—the Center is not 

only limited to hurricane prediction. What else goes on there? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Well, we have seven service centers that involve 

basically everything from the Sun to the sea. We have the Space 

Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado. We have the Storm Prediction Center and the Tornado Watch Program in Norman, Oklahoma; the Aviation Weather Center, in Kansas City. We have the 

Tropical Prediction and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. 

And then, in Camp Springs, Maryland, we have the Climate Prediction Center; the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, which 

does the quantitative precipitation forecasts that are used for the 

inland flooding problem; and then, the Ocean Prediction Center, 

which is a critical part of our forecast infrastructure. Many of these 

storms, obviously, are over sea, and the Nation’s commerce is really 

dependent upon the ships at sea, so the Ocean Prediction Center 

is involved in differentiating your normal storms from your gales 

and your major storms. So, there’s this whole range of activities 

that are then supported by the modeling and the infrastructure of 

getting this global data from the global observing system to the 

models on time, getting the information out of the models, getting 

the information from all of these forecast centers out to not only 

the general public, but the private sector, our local forecast offices, 

et cetera. So, that’s the whole range of what we do. 

Senator MIKULSKI. So, first of all, NOAA isn’t like a Government 

agency talking to another Government agency about hurricanes; 
18 

that essentially, for our colleagues in the Senate, what the National Centers for Environmental Prediction does is, serve the Nation, serve us coastal Senators that are hurricane impacted, serve 

the western Senators in helping to predict the factors that could be 

creating wild—a high level of possibility for wildfires, the tornado 

predictions, working with the private sector, particularly with aviation prediction—when’s it safe to take off? What are the weather 

conditions, and so on? Is this—so that NOAA really serves the Nation in any kind of weather impact, from school closings to airport 

closings. Am I—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. That’s correct. One of the partners that I haven’t 

mentioned in this is the media, for example. And we have strong 

partnerships with them across the whole line. And so, they access 

our products directly. So, what I’d like to say is, basically, from the 

National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s point of view, all 

the forecasts you see here and read about start with us. They don’t 

end with us, but they start with us. We provide that critical information that allows these folks to get that information out. 

Senator MIKULSKI. But your customer is not only other Government agencies, it is, number one, other Government agencies for 

readiness, response, repair; the second is also the private sector, 

like in the field of aviation, cargo shipping, lost cargo, a Valdez, 

anything that could have come from weather would be impacted; 

and then also ordinary people, themselves, who have to know what 

to do. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. 

Senator MIKULSKI. And the media is your best friend for broad 

distribution. Is that right? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. That’s correct. 

INFORMATION PROCESSING AND PREDICTION CYCLE

Senator MIKULSKI. Now, what—and then, you do this by observing, through satellites and land sensors and ships at sea, et cetera. 

Then that information comes to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Then it’s processed, and then sent down, in the 

case of hurricanes, to the Hurricane Center, who then value-adds. 

Is that the way it works? Observation, process, down to the appropriate center, where even more is added to it, and then back out 

to the appropriate public/private and ordinary citizen—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. That—— 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. Is that the way it works? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. That’s the way it works. And it works on a cycle 

of four times per day. Every 6 hours, we repeat that cycle. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Four times a day—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. Every 6 hours. So, you’re operating 24/7. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. 

Senator MIKULSKI. It’s just not like you’re sitting around—and I 

don’t—please, don’t—and then, when you think something might 

happen, and you all come alive. 

Dr. UCCELLINI. We have to be ready all the time. We’re predicting all the time. We have to be able to tell emergency managers, or anybody, when it’s not going to storm, just as much as 
19 

when it is going to. And, we like to point out, for the United States, 

which, as a country, has more severe weather than any other country in the world, that there’s always something happening in this 

country that our forecasters have to deal with. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Twenty-four/seven, six times a day, all these 

predictions—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Four times a day. We’re on a 6-hour cycle—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. Yes, I’m sorry. Got it. 

Dr. UCCELLINI [continuing]. Four times a day. 

HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL

Senator MIKULSKI. Okay, now, let’s go to this new hurricane prediction model. After Katrina, I think we knew you were working on 

a model, and this subcommittee, under Senator Shelby’s leadership, provided increased funding to accelerate the model. Could you 

tell us where you are in the new hurricane model and what will 

the public get for this new model? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. We’re in the process now of actually testing that model on individual cases. And when I say ‘‘testing,’’ 

what’s new about the model is not just the physics that we bring 

in from an atmospheric point of view, it’s the coupling with the 

ocean on a real-time basis that is actually being tested. And our 

plans originally were to implement that and replace the existing 

model in the 2008–2009 timeframe. And what our plans call for 

now is to get that into operations by 2007. So, we were looking at 

a 2-year acceleration—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. But what will it do? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. What it will do is—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. What will it do—what will the new model do 

that is different than the old model? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Okay. Well, first of all, we expect more accurate 

forecasts for the track and, more importantly, for the intensity of 

these storms. I think everybody knows we’ve made significant improvements in track forecasts over the past 10 years, but the intensity forecast has proven to be a particularly thorny issue, from a 

science point of view. And, in fact, we’ve had a working group now, 

working with the NOAA Science Advisory Board, to bring forth recommendations, and they’re all focusing on increased resolution of 

the models, which this will have. So, we expect that, with the improvements we’re working on, and working with the larger scientific community, that we will be addressing this intensity issue. 

Many of these storms intensify very rapidly over a 12-hour period. 

We saw that with Charley off the coast of Florida, we saw that 

with other storms in the Gulf of Mexico. We saw that Wilma went 

to a category 5 in less than 24 hours. We have trouble forecasting 

those intensity changes. And then, of course, the de-intensification 

as it approaches the coastline is also a critical issue. And we expect 

this new model to give us a better handle on the intensity changes. 

Senator MIKULSKI. I want to come back to intensity and surge, 

but just a question. Won’t the new model give you a more accurate 

prediction as to where a hurricane will come down? I mean, the 

private sector tells me that, for every mile of evacuation, colleagues, it cost $1 million. So, when you hear, ‘‘Oh, they’re leaving 

Key West,’’ or, ‘‘They’re leaving Ocean City,’’ every mile of evacu-
20 

ation costs about $1 million, in terms of closing businesses, disruption, overtime for State troopers, et cetera. So, if we know whether—if it’s going to hit Savannah or Charleston, you know, Norfolk 

or Maryland, I mean—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Yes, we do expect better forecasts for the track, 

as well. We have been making improvements on track, so the delta 

in the track forecasts won’t be as large as, we hope, for the delta 

in the intensity forecasts. But, let me add that one of the issues 

with forecasting these storms, as you approach landfall from 5 days 

in advance to 4 days in advance, to 3, to 2, to 1, is, you want a 

consistent forecast. You don’t want the models to be moving all 

over the place as a hurricane is approaching land. And another 

issue that we expect to be able to address with these high-accuracy 

models, is that they’ll give us more consistent forecasts on a runto-run basis. 

SURGE PREDICTION

Senator MIKULSKI. Well, also, will this give us greater prediction, 

in terms of surge? You know, when Isabel hit Maryland, I went to 

bed thinking we had dodged the bullet of the hurricane, only to 

wake up to find out we were kayaking in Fells Point, and, you 

know, I was commuting by Zodiac that day. Not literally, but—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Well, it was the Isabel storm that brought great 

attention to the storm surge models and the improvements that 

needed to be made there. And we are addressing current surge 

models, and improving those, as well. But, with this new modeling 

system, what we are approaching now is the ability to fully couple 

the atmospheric model with the ocean and coastal model. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Is surge in this new model? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. It will be in the new model in the extended timeframes. We’re not confident yet that it will be in the model for 

2007, but that is an issue that we’re addressing. And when we feel 

like we can improve upon the existing surge model, then it will go 

operational. 

Senator MIKULSKI. My time is running out, so I’m going to ask— 

I understand, from the employees, you need about—you know, in 

Maryland, you can’t go to a supermarket without talking to five 

Federal employees, all working on projects, writing the regs, and 

so on. They tell me that, really, the weather—to do the new model, 

you need about another million dollars for 2007 to do about six 

more people to complete the job. Is that right? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. With your support, we’re building up the modeling group to do the hurricane improvements. And we have plans 

for sustaining that. In 2007, we’ll have to look within NOAA to do 

that, but, in 2008, we are, you know, approaching that budget cycle 

and looking to fully support—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. So, what’s—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI [continuing]. The model—— 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. The answer to the question, 

though, Doctor? Or are you unable to answer it because of—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Let me—— 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. OMB rules? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. We’re—— 
21 

Senator MIKULSKI. All I need to know is, Do you need another 

million dollars for six people to complete—to really work to complete—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. We’re going to make sure he has the six 

people to start this when it needs to be started, and we’re going 

to ask for the budget resources on the next cycle to increase this 

effort. 

HURRICANE LIAISON TEAM

Senator MIKULSKI. Okay. This is my last question, Mr. Chairman. 

I understand that, at National Hurricane Center, there is something called a ‘‘hurricane liaison team,’’ and that that liaison team 

has appropriate government agencies, particularly FEMA. Could 

you tell us what the hurricane liaison team is at the Hurricane 

Center, or in conjunction with, and was it operation during 

Katrina? And what did it do? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Yeah, the—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. And how will it be different next time? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. The hurricane liaison team was actually 

formed in the 1990s, after Andrew. And part of this effort to get 

one voice out to the emergency management community. It was 

recognized back then that we needed to do that with FEMA and 

with the State and local emergency management teams. 

Senator MIKULSKI. This was out of Andrew. Am I right? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. It was part of the feedback we got from the Andrew storm, that’s correct. 

Now, the liaison team contains a FEMA work area at the Hurricane Center. So, they have a work area. It’s right off of the forecast 

floor. They have all the technical abilities in that work area to access the forecasts, even as they’re being made. The briefings that 

are done for the larger FEMA organization—and they include State 

and local emergency management officials in those briefings—the 

weather portion of those briefings are actually orchestrated, led out 

of that liaison team in Miami. They lead the entire briefing, and 

they include other components of the Weather Service, including 

the Hydromet Prediction Center, at Camp Springs, that talks about 

the rainfall prediction, and the River Forecast Centers which predict floods. So, all of that is done. It was working very well during 

the last hurricane season. And I actually attend those briefings, although I don’t participate. I have two Center directors—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. So, during—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI [continuing]. That do. 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. Katrina, when we all—all of 

America watched Katrina coming. I know I certainly was. I happened to be on the Eastern Shore at the time and saw these predictions. So, there was a hurricane liaison team. They were working right alongside with the predictors, the science—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. Right. 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. Community. And then, their job 

was to notify everybody to be ready, to stand sentry. And they were 

getting this most accurate, realtime, uptime predictions. 
22 

Dr. UCCELLINI. That’s correct. And at 12 o’clock every day and 

at 5 p.m. there is a briefing that’s provided, and the whole briefing 

goes out to all the emergency managers in the affected States. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Well, are we—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. And that’s all—— 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. Saying, then—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. And that’s all coordinated by FEMA through that 

liaison team. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Are we saying, then, that all of these States 

were appropriately notified at the velocity that was coming their 

way, in addition to watching it on TV? 

Dr. UCCELLINI. The emergency management teams in each one 

of those States participated in those calls at 12 and 5 p.m. every 

day. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Well, Mr. Chairman, I think we need to talk 

about it. Something broke down. 

So, in other words, we want this hurricane liaison team. 

Senator SHELBY. Absolutely. 

Senator MIKULSKI. But, if they, then, knew it, then what happened? And—do you have any thoughts or—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. I’ll just say that I was part of the Weather Service headquarters at the time the hurricane liaison team was spun 

up. We all recognized that this was the way to conduct business 

with one of our primary users of our information. And I consider 

that a very important aspect of the work that we do as part of the 

U.S. Government. 

Senator MIKULSKI. Oh, it certainly is. 

Well, my time is really up. And we want to thank you, again, for 

the wonderful work that you do, because it’s really dedication. If 

you don’t have the right people, the right technology and models 

won’t work. And, also, we want to thank you for the consequence 

management, about the aerial images afterward, this—the consequences on coastal impact, the materials—I mean, what happened out in the gulf, with oil—— 

Dr. UCCELLINI. That’s right. 

Senator MIKULSKI [continuing]. And all of that, our impact on 

fisheries, which we haven’t even talked—your satellites could work 

with us. So, it’s a—it was a great job, and we want to thank you 

for it, and hope for the best for this year. Thank you. 

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Senator SHELBY. Senator Murray. 

TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS

Senator MURRAY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, to 

both of you, for having this really important, informative hearing. 

I wanted to just take an opportunity, while you were in front of 

this subcommittee, to ask a question on a related issue, on tsunami 

preparedness. You mentioned a minute ago, my coast does worry 

about that. And after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, it really 

raised a lot of concerns about the vulnerability of our detection and 

warning systems so we would not have a similar disaster on any 

of our coasts. Congress responded well. We appropriated $17.24 

million in a supplemental funding bill for NOAA to expand and improve its tsunami detection capabilities and a number of other 
23 

things. And in 2006 we appropriated almost $10 million for tsunami-related activities. And this year the President’s asked for 

$21.66 million. So, we’re responding to that. But I was really concerned, because the Government Accountability Office (GAO) 

issued a report on these—U.S. tsunami preparedness just this last 

Monday that raised some concerns about both the effectiveness of 

the existing Federal warning system and the progress that’s being 

made to increase preparedness in a lot of our high-hazard areas. 

And, importantly, the report noted that NOAA has yet to adopt a 

comprehensive strategic plan that establishes risk-based priorities 

to guide the expansion of the warning program. Without that kind 

of plan, GAO said that the ongoing expansion could result in a diversion of critical funds away from locations like the Pacific Coast, 

where the tsunami hazard is well documented, to areas with little 

or no risk. 

Admiral, if you could just talk for a minute about what your response is to the GAO report and recommendations. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. We are reviewing the GAO report. We 

certainly believe in risk-based management. Risk-based management is extremely important. One of the elements of the program 

is to provide the kinds of flood information and first of all, the 

coastal bathymetry and topography, so we can tell what the dangerous areas are, and to get enough effort going to be able to map 

all of these areas. This is the same issue we have with storm surge 

in the gulf from hurricanes. So, the issue is trying to get the mapping, the risk areas, set up and done in a reasonable way, because 

we can’t do them all at once. And we certainly agree that we need 

to look at it on a risk-based management perspective, because it’s 

not something that can be done instantaneously for everyone in all 

areas. 

DEEPWATER DETECTION BUOYS

Senator MURRAY. Well, what is the timeline for development of 

the—more deepwater detection buoys off the Pacific Coast? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. First of all, the buoys are developed, 

and they’re being delivered. We have 10 buoys in the Pacific that 

have been put in, and we have put 5 in the Atlantic and Caribbean. 

This year, we’ll reach what we call IOC, or initial operating capability, of deepwater buoys for both the Pacific and the Atlantic. 

Next year, we will be able to complete the bulk of the 39 that we’ve 

committed to put in, so the program is running as expected. 

Senator MURRAY. Have all the existing buoys been functional 

over the last year? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. We have had casualties to a few of our 

buoys, and we’ve replaced them. We still have one that’s not functional off the Aleutians, and that will be replaced as soon as the 

weather cooperates. There is a very narrow weather margin. 

Senator MURRAY. Right. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. What we’re going to do in the Aleutians 

is put two buoys in each of those stations, to try to provide the required reliability, so that there will always be one on station. In 

other places, we can service them at more regular intervals than 

we can in the Aleutian Islands. 
24 

Senator MURRAY. Okay. Well, I appreciate that. And if you could 

maybe just, in writing, get back to the subcommittee on what kind 

of gaps remain and what we need to do to address them, because 

I was very concerned when I saw that GAO report, and the impact 

it could have on our being prepared for a tsunami on any of our 

coasts, but particularly where I live, out in the—out in Washington 

State. So, if you could—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I’d be pleased to do that. 

[The information follows:] 

ADDRESSING THE GAPS REMAINING IN TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS

In response to the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Administration has 

made a commitment to strengthen the Nation’s tsunami warning program. The fiscal year 2007 budget request continues the Administration’s commitment to this 

mandate—with its goal to eliminate ‘‘gaps’’ in our ability to accurately and effectively detect tsunamis, issue timely and effective warnings and mitigate tsunami 

hazards through community-based tsunami preparedness programs. The overarching focus of this multi-year effort embraces the three integrated components of 

the National Tsunami Mitigation Program: (1) Improving Tsunami Warning Guidance; (2) Improving Tsunami Hazard Assessment; and (3) Improving Tsunami Mitigation. Financially, NOAA’s initial efforts in strengthening the U.S. Tsunami Warning System have been on improving tsunami warning guidance. This has included 

expanding NOAA’s Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) network, expanding/upgrading NOAA’s sea-level reporting network, expanding and upgrading NOAA’s seismic networks, and upgrading the operations of NOAA’s two 

Tsunami Warning Centers to 24/7 operations. Funds provided to the U.S. Geological 

Survey (USGS) have led to improved global earthquake detection and faster reporting of earthquake data for tsunami warning. 

NOAA is also expanding and accelerating its tsunami inundation, mapping, modeling and forecast efforts. NOAA has embarked upon an accelerated and expanded 

program to collect bathymetric data along vulnerable U.S. coastlines and develop detailed community-based tsunami inundation maps and tsunami inundation forecast 

models for the most at-risk U.S. coastal communities (74 total models). By the end 

of fiscal year 2006, we are scheduled to complete 8 additional models, for a total 

of 17. With sustained funding, 9 more models will be added in fiscal year 2007 and 

the forecast operating system software will be transferred to the tsunami warning 

centers. We project completion of this national effort during fiscal year 2012. 

In response to its mandate to improve tsunami mitigation/preparedness NOAA 

has increased the number of TsunamiReady communities/locations to 27, which is 

an 80 percent increase above the December 2004 number. NOAA is committed to 

working with every at-risk community to help make them TsunamiReady. 

The GAO Report focuses primarily on tsunami preparedness and hazard mitigation and proposes the following recommendations—all of which NOAA is adopting: 

—Work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Director and 

the USGS Director to create standardized tsunami loss estimation software to 

help communities determine the potential impact of tsunamis and identify appropriate mitigation actions; 

—Reduce the number of tsunami warning false alarms by (1) completing the 

planned expansion of tsunami detection stations, (2) reexamining NWS’s rules 

dictating when a warning will be issued and to what areas, (3) establishing a 

routine process for other federal and state experts to formally review and comment on the center’s use of seismic data, and (4) setting performance goals to 

guide improvements; 

—Work with the states to conduct periodic end-to-end tests of the tsunami warning system, including NOAA Weather Radio and the Emergency Alert System, 

to ensure the system will function as intended during a tsunami emergency; 

—Evaluate the TsunamiReady program to determine what barriers, if any, exist 

to participation and what modifications are needed to encourage more high-risk 

communities to participate; 

—Evaluate the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to determine what has worked well in the past and what high priority activities remain 

to be completed and to help inform strategic planning efforts; 

—Develop comprehensive risk-based strategic plans for the Tsunami Program and 

NTHMP that consider input from states and federal partners and include 

metrics for measuring progress toward achieving program goals. 
25 

We will forward for the Committee’s review a copy of the DOC/NOAA response 

to the GAO Report as soon as it has been cleared. Our response to the GAO report 

will acknowledge that NOAA’s focus will remain on the high risk locations. As the 

GAO acknowledges, achieving comprehensive community-based tsunami preparedness programs for all at-risk U.S. coastal communities will require an integrated effort of multiple Federal Agencies (NOAA, USGS, FEMA, and the National Science 

Foundation) and State and local government participation to achieve program goals. 

NOTIFICATION OF GOVERNORS

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. And regarding the point about making 

sure that everybody is prepared—I have been asked by the House 

Appropriations Committee to call every Governor to tell them the 

status of the program, which I have done, and I have contacted 

your Governor, as well as those in—— 

Senator MURRAY. Thank you. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Oregon and California— 

and will continue—I take this very seriously, and we will continue 

to do everything we can to provide the Federal piece of the warning 

system. Thank you for—— 

Senator MURRAY. Thank you—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Your attention. 

Senator MURRAY [continuing]. Very much. Appreciate it. 

WEATHER PREDICTION

Senator SHELBY. I have some more questions, for the record here, 

and I’ll try to run through them. 

What are the U.S. strengths and weaknesses in weather prediction, Admiral? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Okay, from my perspective, I think that 

we are very strong in our observing systems. We have good satellites. We have good control of the assets that we use. We have 

excellent prediction centers. So, the strengths, in terms of the ability to bring science into an operational part of our setup, are extremely good. We have good international relationships. We take 

advantage of other—— 

Senator SHELBY. How do we—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Information—— 

Senator SHELBY [continuing]. Compare with Europe as far as 

predictions? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I think we’re on a comparable footing. 

It’s not exactly an apples to oranges comparison, but we do well. 

Now, Europe has a different mechanism. They’ve—— 

Senator SHELBY. Sure. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. Combined their agencies to 

have a European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting. 

Senator SHELBY. They have different risks, too, don’t they? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Sir? 

Senator SHELBY. Have different risk. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. How the different—— 

Senator SHELBY. The risk is different in Europe. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Certainly, the risk is different—— 

Senator SHELBY. Yeah. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. In Europe. They have different storms and types of weather conditions to worry about. But 

I am always interested in creating bigger and better modeling cen-
26 

ters, more computing power. So, I think we need to work, in the 

future, on developing our computing power. I’ve brought that recommendation forward within the administration, as well as within 

the scientific community. 

Senator SHELBY. How do you intend to integrate new remote 

sensing technology to advance your Nation’s storm forecasting? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Remote sensing capability can be difficult, because there’s a large amount of information that comes in 

from this technology. So, what we have created is a Joint Center 

for Data Assimilation with NASA and the Department of Defense 

to take this data into a single combined organization that allows 

us to then parse it out and put it in models. Dr. Uccellini is a key 

part of that issue of incorporating new data as quickly as possible 

into our models. 

Senator SHELBY. As both of you well know better than I, severe 

weather comes in many forms, not just hurricanes. So far this year, 

724 tornados have been reported in the United States, according to 

NOAA’s Prediction Center. Preliminary reports show these events 

have resulted in at least 52 deaths. I understand that you’re working to ensure that citizens are better informed about dangerous 

weather, because it saves lives, saves property and everything else. 

What’s the most effective strategy for decreasing severe-storm-related deaths, in your judgment? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. In my judgment, it’s preparation, it’s 

people understanding what the risks are and being prepared to act 

when they get information. And next, they need the information, 

and I’m always advertising NOAA Weather Radio as a way to get 

the information. 

STORM SURGE FORECASTS

Senator SHELBY. During Hurricane Katrina, much of the damage 

in my State of Alabama, and a lot more in Mississippi, was caused 

by storm surge. In some communities, the water levels were higher 

than 20 feet. Can you tell us what NOAA is doing to improve storm 

surge forecasts? And how can you highlight some efforts to improve 

forecasts for inland flooding caused by heavy rains during hurricanes, you know, as the aftermath of this? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Yes, and as we mentioned, we have a 

model called SLOSH (Sea, Land and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), that we use today. It’s a rudimentary model, but we are trying to make it better. 

Senator SHELBY. Is it working? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. It works. Yes, it does work. Does it 

work accurately all the time, in every place? The answer is—— 

Senator MIKULSKI. No. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. No. So, we need to improve 

it. You have given us some funding to help us do that. 

Senator SHELBY. You need more funding in that area? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I think—— 

Senator SHELBY. Senator Mikulski was asking you a specific— 

I’m going to ask you a specific—do you need more—— 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I think we have the money we need to 

improve that model, and I would like to have Dr. Uccellini and our 

folks work on—— 
27 

Senator SHELBY. Work with the staff. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER [continuing]. The improvements—— 

Senator SHELBY. The model. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. The model, itself. 

Senator SHELBY. Okay. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Because we have some money to improve that model, and we have some money to incorporate better 

models, in the future. So, you have given us help in doing that, and 

we are grateful for it, and we’re going to take action on it. 

COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT ACT

Senator SHELBY. The Coastal Zone Management Act requires 

NOAA to assist States in managing coastal development in order 

to minimize the loss of life and property caused by improper development in hazardous areas. You know, there’s a lot of horror stories here. Under the Coastal Zone Management Act, each State receives approximately $2 million annually to address coastal hazards, in addition to other competitive priorities, such as water quality and public access. Is the Coastal Zone Management Act funding 

providing enough to achieve the goals of the act, is this just a pittance? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. That’s a very broad question. It has 

worked fairly well, because the object of the act was to develop consistent plans between the Federal and the State governments so 

that we would have a consistency principle around the coast. 

Senator SHELBY. Sure. 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Now, if you ask the States, they will 

tell us that they can always use more, certainly, in working in 

these areas. But the object of the act was to try to build a consistent plan that allows us to develop properly and with some consistency around our Nation, and that seems to be working fairly 

well. The act, itself, is well constructed. 

Senator SHELBY. Are States afforded sufficient authority to establish priorities for the selection and funding of coastal hazards 

mitigation projects? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. I think the act represents the—— 

Senator SHELBY. In other words, do they have the power? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. Yes, they do. There is a reasonable balance for them to act and provide the money for projects that they 

think are important to them. 

Senator SHELBY. NOAA struggled to release funds in the previous December 2005 supplemental, but we were assured by the 

Secretary of Commerce that that’s been resolved. Does NOAA foresee any problems distributing funds from the latest supplemental? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. No, sir, we do not. From the most recent one that was given to us in December, we have distributed all 

of those funds, and we are preparing so that, when the next one 

is ready, we will spring into action. We have set ourselves up to 

try to do it as quickly as possible. 

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION PRIORITIES

Senator SHELBY. As both of you know, we’re working on the 2007 

appropriations bill—Senator Mikulski and our staff and members 

of the committee. But in supporting your overall mission to monitor 
28 

and to forecast hurricanes, which we believe is very important to 

the American people, what are your top priorities, just in a nutshell? 

Admiral LAUTENBACHER. My priorities, first of all, are to take 

care of the people. We have to recognize that, while we have these 

wonderful technological inventions that we use, it’s the skill of the 

forecasters in using that information that’s critical. I’m delighted 

that we have a good union that supports the work that we do. And 

to support the people that we have is my top issue. 

Beyond that, I would like to make strong representation for our 

satellite programs. Our satellite programs are critical to the Nation, and we spend a lot of time working on trying to keep them 

going. So, the increases for the satellite programs are very important. And then, the sensors and the modeling programs that we 

have. 

I think those are all critical, and there are increases for each of 

those in our 2007 budget. 

Senator SHELBY. Well, during the hurricane season, I think 

you—NOAA stood out as doing great work, wouldn’t you think, 

Senator Mikulski? And we want to commend you, again, for that, 

and we want to make sure that you have adequate funding to carry 

your job out. 

We thank you both for your cooperation with the subcommittee. 

We’ll continue to work with you. 

We have some Senators that are tied up on the floor that have 

asked to submit questions to you for the record, and we’d ask that 

you respond to them no later than July 22, 2006. 

CONCLUSION OF HEARING

And, other than that, this subcommittee will stand in recess. 

[Whereupon, at 11:28 a.m., Wednesday, June 7, the hearing was 

concluded, and the subcommittee was recessed, to reconvene subject to the call of the Chair.] 

Æ