Near-Term Projections of 

CO2 Utilization for 

Enhanced Oil Recovery 

April 7, 2014 

DOE/NETL-2014/1648 

OFFICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY

National Energy 

Technology Laboratory
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

Disclaimer 

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States 

Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their 

employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or 

responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, 

product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. 

Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, 

trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, 

recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views 

and opinions of authors expressed therein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United 

States Government or any agency thereof. 

All exhibits have been created by Advanced Resources International, Inc., unless otherwise 

noted. 
Near-Term Projection of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

Author List: 

Energy Sector Planning and Analysis (ESPA) 

Matt Wallace, Vello Kuuskraa

Advanced Resources International, Inc. 

NETL Contact 

Phil DiPietro 

This report was prepared by Energy Sector Planning and Analysis (ESPA) for the United States 

Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This work was 

completed under DOE NETL Contract Number DE-FE0004001. This work was performed 

under ESPA Task 150.07.04. 

The authors wish to acknowledge the excellent guidance, contributions, and cooperation of the 

NETL staff, particularly: 

Evelyn Dale, NETL Technical Monitor 

DOE Contract Number DE-FE0004001 
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Table of Contents 

Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................1

1 Purpose of the Report....................................................................................................................5

2 Status of CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery .........................................................................................5

3 Outlook for CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery .....................................................................................7

4 Study Methodology .......................................................................................................................9

4.1 CO2 Supplies for EOR ..........................................................................................................9

4.1.1 Regional CO2 Supplies ................................................................................................10

4.2 CO2 Utilization by EOR ......................................................................................................11

4.3 CO2-EOR Oil Production ....................................................................................................12

4.3.1 Baseline CO2-EOR Oil Production .............................................................................12

4.3.2 Near-Term CO2-EOR Oil Production .........................................................................12

4.4 Regional CO2-EOR Production...........................................................................................13

5 Results and Discussion ...............................................................................................................13

6 References ...................................................................................................................................22
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Exhibits 

Exhibit ES-1 Current CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2012) ............................................ 1

Exhibit ES-2 Utilization and storage of natural and anthropogenic CO2 with EOR ...................... 2

Exhibit ES-3 Projected CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2020) ......................................... 3

Exhibit 2-1 Annual CO2-EOR production ...................................................................................... 6

Exhibit 2-2 Current CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2012) ............................................... 7

Exhibit 3-1 Near-term projection of CO2-EOR oil production by region ...................................... 8

Exhibit 3-2 Projected CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2020) ............................................ 8

Exhibit 4-1 Probability-adjusted industrial CO2 supplies due online by 2020 ............................. 10

Exhibit 4-2 CO2 utilization ratios by phase .................................................................................. 11

Exhibit 5-1 Utilization of natural and industrial CO2 with EOR .................................................. 14

Exhibit 5-2 Utilization of natural and industrial CO2 for EOR by region .................................... 14

Exhibit 5-3 Projected near-term CO2 utilization by region and source ........................................ 15

Exhibit 5-4 Projected CO2-EOR production by region ................................................................. 16

Exhibit 5-5 Projected near-term CO2-EOR oil production ........................................................... 17

Exhibit 5-6 Major U.S. CO2 pipelines in 2012 (5) ....................................................................... 18

Exhibit 5-7 New natural gas processing and industrial CO2 sources announced between 2010 and 

2013 ....................................................................................................................................... 19

Exhibit 5-8 CO2 sources announced between 2010 and 2013 and associated oil production by 

region .................................................................................................................................... 20

Exhibit 5-9 Baseline vs. upside projection of CO2-EOR production by 2020 .............................. 20

Exhibit 5-10 Projection of 1 billion metric tons of CO2 stored from current natural gas processing 

and industrial sources ............................................................................................................ 21
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iii 

Acronyms and Abbreviations

AEO Annual Energy Outlook 

ARI Advanced Resources International, 

Inc. 

Bcfd Billion cubic feet per day 

CCS Carbon capture and storage 

CO2 Carbon dioxide 

CTL Coal-to-liquids 

CVR CVR Energy, Inc. 

DKRW DKRW Advanced Fuels, LLC 

DOE Department of Energy 

EIA Energy Information Administration 

EOR Enhanced oil recovery 

ESPA Energy Sector Planning and Analysis 

GTL Gas-to-liquids 

HECA Hydrogen Energy California 

IGCC Integrated gasification combined 

cycle 

MBbld Million barrels per day 

Mcf Thousand cubic feet 

MMcfd Million cubic feet per day 

MMmt Million metric tons 

NETL National Energy Technology 

NRG NRG Energy 

OGJ Oil & Gas Journal 

PCS PCS Nitrogen, Inc. 

SACROC Scurry Area Canyon Reef Operators 

Committee 

TCEP Texas Clean Energy Project 

UCG Underground coal gasification 

U.S. United States 

 
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Executive Summary 

Utilization of natural and industrial CO2 by the enhanced oil recovery industry has grown 

steadily since the early 1970s. In fact, the landmark CO2 flood at the Scurry Area Canyon Reef 

Operators Committee (SACROC) unit was launched in 1972 utilizing CO2 captured from a series 

of natural gas processing plants in the Val Verde Basin of West Texas. Prior to its capture and 

utilization, this by-product CO2 had been released into the atmosphere. 

The discovery of large natural sources of CO2 in Colorado (McElmo Dome, Doe Canyon, and 

Sheep Mountain) plus New Mexico (Bravo Dome) and its transportation to the Permian Basin 

enabled oil production from CO2-EOR to steadily grow in West Texas. Subsequent discovery of 

natural CO2 supplies at Jackson Dome, Mississippi, and the capture of vented CO2 at the massive 

LaBarge natural gas processing facility in western Wyoming provided the foundation for new 

CO2-EOR projects along the Gulf Coast and in the Rockies. 

Today, a total of 113 CO2-EOR projects inject 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) (60 million 

metric tons (MMmt) per year) of natural and industrial CO2 for enhanced oil recovery, in 

numerous areas of the United States (U.S.) (Exhibit ES-1). The associated crude oil production 

in 2012 was 282,000 barrels per day. Growth of oil production from CO2-EOR has been 

constrained in the past few years due to limitations in accessible, affordable supplies of CO2. 

In our view, the combination of: 1) significant new volumes of CO2 captured from industrial 

sources; 2) the recent completion of new CO2 pipelines; and 3) the availability of additional 

natural sources of CO2 will enable CO2-EOR based oil production to grow significantly during 

the rest of this decade. 

Exhibit ES-1 Current CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2012) 

 
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 Captured CO2 supply from gas processing and other industrial sources grows from 

16% of total supply in 2012 to 47% in 2020. Current (year 2012) utilization of gas 

processing and other industrial CO2 by EOR is 0.4 Bcfd (8 MMmt per year). This 

volume is expected to reach 3.0 Bcfd (58 MMmt) by 2020 (Exhibit ES-2). Much of the 

increased capture and utilization of CO2 between today and year 2020 will be from 

industrial plants along the Gulf Coast. 

Overall CO2 utilization by CO2-EOR (including natural gas processing and other 

industrial CO2 sources) is projected to more than double by year 2020, from 3.0 Bcfd (58 

MMmt) today to 6.4 Bcfd (124 MMmt) (Exhibit ES-2). The forecast for CO2 supply 

does not include an estimate of future announcements that are not yet in the public 

domain. Also, the CO2 supply estimates for announced industrial sources are reduced 

from the stated capacity to account for the risk of schedule slip or cancellation.

Exhibit ES-2 Utilization and storage of natural and anthropogenic CO2 with EOR 

 Major new CO2 pipelines are in place, capable of delivering expanded volumes of CO2

for utilization by EOR. In the past several years, industry has installed and placed into 

operation several new CO2 pipelines. These include the Green CO2 Pipeline along the 

Gulf Coast, the Greencore CO2 Pipeline in the Rockies, the Coffeyville to Burbank CO2

Pipeline in the Mid-Continent, and the Eastern Shelf CO2 Pipeline in West Texas. 

Recently, Kinder Morgan announced a new, 213-mile, 16-inch diameter pipeline to 

transport carbon dioxide (CO2) from the company’s St. Johns source field in Apache 

County, Arizona, to the Kinder Morgan-operated Cortez Pipeline in Torrance County, 

New Mexico (1). Moderate distance laterals from these large-scale pipelines will enable 

more oil fields favorable for CO2-EOR to be linked with supplies of CO2 in future years. 
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 With access to additional volumes of CO2, industry has announced the start of 

numerous new CO2 enhanced oil recovery projects. Industry has announced the start of 

a series of new, large-scale CO2-EOR projects in mature domestic oil fields. Along with 

expansion of existing CO2 floods, new CO2-EOR projects expected online by 2020 

include: Conroe, Thompson, Webster and West Ranch along the Gulf Coast; Bell Creek, 

Grieve, and Poplar Dome in the Rockies; and Burbank and Northeast Hardesty in the 

Mid-Continent. Numerous other CO2 floods are scheduled to start after 2020, including 

Hartzog Draw in the Rockies and the numerous oil fields on the Cedar Creek Anticline in 

North Dakota. 

Based on the increased volumes of CO2 supplies, the completion of major CO2 pipelines, and the 

announced new, large-scale CO2-EOR floods, we anticipate that CO2-EOR production will grow 

significantly, reaching 615,000 barrels per day from at least 124 active CO2 floods by year 2020 

(Exhibit ES-3). While the Permian Basin remains the largest CO2-EOR oil producer, much of 

the growth occurs in the Gulf Coast, the Rockies, and the Mid-Continent. The CO2-EOR 

industry is on pace to store a billion metric tons of CO2 from gas processing and industrial 

sources during the next 20 years.

Exhibit ES-3 Projected CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2020) 
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1 Purpose of the Report 

The Oil & Gas Journal’s (OGJ) biannual enhanced oil recovery (EOR) survey is the “gold 

standard” for information on enhanced oil recovery operations in the United States (U.S.) (1) 

The information in the survey is collected at an EOR project level, providing very detailed, 

highly valuable data on the nature, location, reservoir settings and oil production from EOR for 

each of the major EOR technologies—CO2-EOR, chemical EOR, and thermal EOR. The survey 

contains data for years 1986 through 2014. 

The OGJ survey, while providing a most valuable snapshot of the status of EOR does not 

provide a “look forward.” This report, “Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization by Enhanced 

Oil Recovery,” builds on the Oil & Gas Journal’s biannual EOR survey to provide such a “look 

forward” of the future potential for one of these EOR technologies—CO2 enhanced oil recovery. 

The report tabulates industry and other information on the various existing and future sources of 

CO2 supplies to be utilized for EOR as well as the industry announced CO2-EOR projects in 

mature domestic oil fields. 

The great bulk of the information in this report is based on a project-by-project matching of 

defined CO2 supplies, CO2 utilization, and CO2-EOR based oil production. In cases where the 

announced volumes of available CO2 supplies exceed the demand for CO2 by announced CO2-

EOR projects, we provide estimates for additional near-term oil production that could become 

available from expansion of existing CO2 floods or the initiation of yet to be announced CO2

floods. 

Two publications, “A Note on Sources of CO2 Supply for Enhanced-Oil-Recovery Operations” 

(2) and “Wyoming CO2 Status and Developments,” (3) contributed significantly to the research 

for this study. 

2 Status of CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery 

Oil production from CO2-EOR in onshore, lower-48 oil reservoirs will provide 282,000 barrels 

per day of incremental oil production in 2012. The volume of oil production from CO2-EOR has 

grown steadily for the past thirty years (Exhibit 2-1). 

 
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Exhibit 2-1 Annual CO2-EOR production 

Our study of the status of CO2-EOR started with information provided in the latest OGJ biennial 

survey of enhanced oil recovery, published in April, 2012. Our study then independently 

reviewed the CO2-EOR oil production on a field-by-field basis for years 2012 and 2013 to 

develop independent tabulations of CO2-EOR oil production for 113 active CO2-EOR projects. 

Our review, while showing modestly different values for certain oil fields, resulted in aggregate 

CO2-EOR oil production values consistent with those reported in the OGJ survey. 

Exhibit 2-2 provides a composite overview of the current status of CO2 supplies and CO2-EOR 

activity in the U.S., as of year 2012: 

 State-by-state locations for the currently active 113 CO2-EOR projects. Much of the 

CO2-EOR activity is in West Texas (64 projects), followed by Mississippi (16 projects) 

and Wyoming (9 projects). 

 Location of the existing CO2 supplies sources (natural, gas processing, and industrial). 

Much of the CO2 is from naturally occurring CO2 fields in Colorado, New Mexico, and 

Mississippi. 

 Robust infrastructure of existing and projected CO2 pipelines, totaling more than 3,000 

miles, linking CO2 supply sources with oil fields. 

 
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Exhibit 2-2 Current CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2012) 

3 Outlook for CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery 

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) early release of Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 

2014 projects that oil production from CO2-EOR remains flat at 280,000 barrels per day through 

2014, rising slowly to 360,000 barrels per day by year 2020. After year 2020, CO2-EOR based 

oil production is projected to climb to 580,000 barrels per day by 2030 and further to 740,000 

barrels per day by year 2040.(4) 

Given the significant additional volumes of available CO2 supplies and the numerous new 

announced CO2-EOR projects, our study indicates the potential for significantly higher volumes 

of oil production and CO2 utilization from CO2-EOR, as summarized below and further 

discussed in Section 5. 

Our analysis shows that incremental oil production from CO2-EOR operations is expected to 

increase significantly from 282,000 barrels per day in 2012 to 615,000 barrels per day in 2020, 

as shown in Exhibit 3-1 and illustrated in Exhibit 3-2. 

 
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Exhibit 3-1 Near-term projection of CO2-EOR oil production by region 

Region 

CO2-EOR Oil Production (MBbld) 

2012 2015 2020 

Permian Basin 186 241 301 

Gulf Coast 43 73 153 

Rockies 36 55 103 

Mid-Continent 17 37 58 

Total Production 282 405 615 

Exhibit 3-2 Projected CO2-EOR operations and CO2 sources (2020) 
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4 Study Methodology 

4.1 CO2 Supplies for EOR 

The first step of our study was to review the current status and outlook for both natural as well as 

industrial sources of CO2. Currently, the majority of CO2 supplied for EOR is from natural 

sources, notably from the McElmo Dome and Bravo Dome natural CO2 fields, that supply the 

Permian Basin and portions of the Mid-Continent and Rockies, and from Jackson Dome, that 

supplies CO2 for EOR operations along the Gulf Coast. 

Natural sources of CO2 for EOR are expected to increase between now and 2020: 

 Total CO2 supply from McElmo Dome, Bravo Dome, Doe Canyon, Sheep Mountain and 

Jackson Dome is expected to increase from 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2012 

to 3.0 Bcfd in 2020. 

 A new natural source of CO2, St. Johns Dome in New Mexico, is expected to come 

online by 2016. It will supply 0.5 Bcfd of CO2 for EOR in the Permian Basin in 2020. 

However, future development of CO2-EOR will need to rely heavily on CO2 captured from 

industrial sources. Importantly, sale and utilization of CO2 provides a benefit to industrial gas 

processing and power generation that would otherwise likely vent their CO2 emissions to the 

atmosphere. 

 Significant expansions in CO2 captured from gas processing plants, such as at Lost 

Cabin, La Barge, and Riley Ridge in the Rockies (345 MMcfd) and the Century Phase II 

plant (170 MMcfd) in West Texas. 

 Increased capture of CO2 from nitrogen, hydrogen, fertilizer, and other industrial plants 

in the Mid-Continent and the Gulf Coast. 

 Projected industrial CO2 sources from Sasol’s gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant in Louisiana, 

Leucadia’s coal gasification plant in Mississippi, and DKRW Advanced Fuels, LLC’s 

(DKRW) Phase I coal-to-liquids (CTL) plant in the Rockies. 

Based on the above sources plus other future sources of captured CO2, we estimate that 

utilization of CO2 for EOR from natural gas processing and other industrial sources will reach 

3.0 Bcfd (58 million metric tons (MMmt)/yr) by 2020. 

Probability-Adjusted CO2 Supplies. The near-term forecast conservatively estimates the volumes 

of CO2 sourced from natural gas processing and other industrial facilities scheduled to come 

online between 2012 and 2020. Each new potential source of CO2 was assigned a project status 

and a probability of delivery of CO2 to the market by the year 2020. 

 Planning/Feasibility (75%) – Permitted projects in the final stages of financing and CO2

off-take negotiations, including projects identified in published business plans. 

 Design/Pre-feasibility (50%) – Projects currently undergoing design and feasibility 

studies that have not received full project permitting. 

 Identify (25%) – Conceptual projects identified as possible sources of CO2 should design, 

permitting, and feasibility studies prove to be favorable. 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

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Exhibit 4-1 outlines the CO2 sources included in our study that are currently in the 

Planning/Feasibility, Design/Pre-feasibility, and Identify stages. 

Exhibit 4-1 Probability-adjusted industrial CO2 supplies due online by 2020 

Project Status 

Probability of 

Coming 

Online by 

2020 

Region Project 

Planning/Feasibility 75% 

Permian 

Basin Summit TCEP 

Rockies DKRW Phase I 

MidContinent Burbank Expansion 

Gulf Coast 

Mississippi Gasification 

Sasol GTL 

Design/ 

Pre-Feasibility 50% Rockies 

Linc Energy UCG 

Quintana South Heart 

IGCC 

Identify 25% Gulf Coast 

Indiana Gasification 

Kentucky NewGas 

4.1.1 Regional CO2 Supplies 

Permian Basin. The current sources of CO2 supply for the Permian Basin include McElmo 

Dome, Doe Canyon, and Sheep Mountain in Colorado, Bravo Dome in New Mexico, and the 

Century and Val Verde gas plants in Texas. Together, these sources provided 1.7 Bcfd in 2012 

for EOR to fields in the Permian Basin. 

Expansion of natural CO2 supply from McElmo Dome and Doe Canyon is expected in 2014 and 

2015, respectively. A new source of natural CO2 from St. Johns Dome in New Mexico is 

expected partially online by 2016 and fully online by 2017. CO2 from expansion of the Century 

gas processing plant and from the Texas Clean Energy Project (TCEP) become available for the 

Permian Basin in 2015 to 2016. Overall CO2 supply for EOR is expected to increase to 2.7 Bcfd 

by 2017 and stay at the level through 2020. 

Gulf Coast. The current (year 2012) CO2 supply for EOR of 0.9 Bcfd for the Gulf Coast is 

natural CO2 from Jackson Dome in Mississippi. Two new industrial sources of CO2—the Air 

Products hydrogen, and the PCS nitrogen plants in Louisiana—came online in 2013 and will 

reach their full supply potential of 50 and 25 MMcfd, respectively, by 2014. 

Aside from a modest increase in supply from Jackson Dome, the bulk of the incremental CO2

supply for EOR in the Gulf Coast is expected to be from industrial sources. A number of 

chemical plants in Louisiana are scheduled to capture and supply CO2 to the region, including 

the Lake Charles gasification plant, the Mississippi gasification plant, and a planned Sasol GTL 

plant in Louisiana plus new ammonia and chemical plants yet to be publically named. Two new 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

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power plants, Mississippi Power’s and NRG Energy’s (NRG) power plants will capture and 

supply CO2 for EOR in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Total CO2 supply for EOR is expected to 

increase to 2.6 Bcfd by 2020. 

Rockies. The majority of CO2 currently supplied to the Rockies comes from the Shute 

Creek/LaBarge gas plant. A small volume of natural CO2 supply from McElmo Dome is 

supplied to the CO2 floods at the Greater Aneth oil field. Total supply of CO2 for EOR in the 

Rockies was 245 MMcfd in 2012. 

In addition to expansion of CO2 capture at Shute Creek/LaBarge and Lost Cabin gas processing 

plants, four additional sources of CO2 are scheduled to come online including: the Riley Ridge 

gas processing plant; the DKRW Medicine Bow fuel plant; the Linc Energy gasification plant; 

and the Quintana South Heart integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant. These 

expansions and new sources of CO2 are projected to increase CO2 supply for Rockies EOR to 

750 MMcfd by 2020. 

Mid-Continent. The great bulk of the CO2 supply in the Mid-Continent comes from industrial 

sources of CO2, including the Koch nitrogen plant, the Agrium fertilizer plant, the CVR Energy, 

Inc.’s (CVR) Coffeyville nitrogen plant, and the Conestoga Arkalon and Bonanza nitrogen 

plants. Additional supplies of natural CO2, 35 MMcfd, are supplied to the Postle field in 

Oklahoma from Bravo Dome. Total CO2 supply for Mid-Continent EOR was 85 MMcfd in 

2012. 

Several new sources of CO2 are expected for the Mid-Continent. The Lilly Lateral pipeline will 

extend Bravo Dome CO2 supply to the Northeast Hardesty EOR project. Increased supplies of 

CO2 from the CVR Coffeyville and Koch Nitrogen plants would support expansion of CO2-EOR 

at Burbank and surrounding oil fields. Total CO2 supply for EOR in the Mid-Continent is 

expected to increase nearly 300 MMcfd by 2020. 

4.2 CO2 Utilization by EOR 

The utilization rate of purchased CO2 volumes per barrel of incremental oil varies both by region 

and by operator. Regional CO2 utilization ratios were used to model purchased CO2 volumes 

when published CO2 volumes were unavailable. 

CO2 utilization ratios were determined from State Oil and Gas Commission data, from data 

provided by individual CO2 flood operators, and by CO2-EOR modeling data (PROPHET2 CO2-

EOR flood simulations). Different ratios were used based on the development phase of each 

CO2-EOR operation. Utilization ratios for “Initial,” “Developing,” and “Mature” project phases 

are listed by region in Exhibit 4-2. 

Exhibit 4-2 CO2 utilization ratios by phase 

CO2 Utilization 

(Mcf/Bbl) Initial Developing Mature 

Permian Basin - 12.0 9.1 

Gulf Coast 25.0 20.0 15.0 

Rockies 19.0 9.0 5.0 

Mid-Continent 12.5 7.0 6.0 
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4.3 CO2-EOR Oil Production 

4.3.1 Baseline CO2-EOR Oil Production 

Baseline CO2-EOR oil production data for all CO2-EOR projects were obtained from the most 

current sources of information available: 

 Operator Data. Companies like Denbury, Devon and Chaparral provide detailed 

information on their current CO2-EOR based oil production. 

 State Data. State oil and gas commission data, particularly in the Permian Basin and 

Rockies, was collected for oil fields for which enhanced oil production data was not 

available from operators. 

 Oil & Gas Journal Data. When CO2-EOR oil production data was not available from 

operators or from state data, the study used the information in OGJ EOR Survey, which 

provides detailed data on enhanced oil production by oil field and by oil reservoir. 

 Net-To-Gross Adjustment. For the most part, the oil production data supplied by 

operators is net oil production (gross production less royalties and outside working 

interests). Gross enhanced oil production totals were determined by using state data on 

total oil field/reservoir production. For CO2-EOR projects without available net-to-gross 

production information, an 80% net-to-gross ratio was used. 

4.3.2 Near-Term CO2-EOR Oil Production 

The estimates of future CO2-EOR oil production, to year 2020, were based on a variety of 

sources: 

 Existing CO2 Floods. The starting point for estimating future oil production was the set 

of 113 currently operating CO2-EOR projects. The study projected future CO2-EOR oil 

production for each of these 113 existing CO2 floods taking into account the following 

information: 

− Operator projections for future oil production were available for most of the CO2-

EOR projects in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and the Rockies. 

− For the Permian Basin, the study used a combination of operator projections and 

project by project historical trend data to estimate future oil production from CO2-

EOR for each existing CO2 flood. 

 Planned CO2-EOR Floods. CO2-EOR operators often provide data on new CO2-EOR 

start date, peak production year, and expected ultimate recovery on a project by project 

basis. This information was used to establish CO2-EOR based oil production for the 

eleven new CO2-EOR projects included in the study. 

 Potential CO2-EOR Floods. In cases where the available CO2 supply exceeded the CO2

demand for existing and planned CO2-EOR floods, the study estimated the volume of 

future oil production from CO2-EOR using regional CO2 utilization factors (thousand 

cubic feet (Mcf) of CO2 per barrel of oil production). 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

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4.4 Regional CO2-EOR Production 

Permian Basin. Gross oil production data for CO2-EOR operations in the Permian Basin were 

obtained from the Texas Railroad Commission database, which tracks oil and gas production 

data. Enhanced oil production due to CO2-EOR was obtained from company data or from the Oil 

& Gas Journal EOR Survey to develop an enhanced to gross production ratio. Enhanced oil 

production was then projected based on recent historical production trends for both total and 

enhanced oil production. 

Gulf Coast. Production estimates for each of the 20 current and 3 planned Denbury CO2-EOR 

projects were developed based on project start date, peak oil year, peak oil rate, and total 

expected recovery provided by operators. CO2 utilization ratios, consistent with Gulf Coast CO2, 

floods were applied to the estimates of oil production to calculate purchased CO2 utilization. 

Projection for one non-Denbury flood in the Gulf Coast was generated using internal Advanced 

Resources International, Inc. (ARI) data sources. 

Rockies. CO2-EOR oil production in the Rockies was based on both operator and state 

production data. Oil production from mature CO2 floods was assumed to continue their historical 

decline. Oil production from newer CO2 floods was estimated based on expected peak 

production followed by gradual decline. CO2 utilization rates were based on current known CO2

injection rates projected into the future. 

Mid-Continent. Estimates of CO2-EOR oil production for the Mid-Continent were based on 

operator information, supplemented by information in the Oil & Gas Journal 2012 EOR Survey. 

Anticipated CO2 utilization was available for the nine Chaparral Energy CO2 floods. CO2

utilization for the remaining four mid-continent CO2 floods was estimated using regional CO2

utilization ratios. 

5 Results and Discussion 

Our recent analysis, as set forth in more detail below, indicates that the combination of: 1) 

significant new volumes of CO2 captured from industrial sources; 2) the recent completion of 

new CO2 pipelines; and 3) the availability of additional natural sources of CO2 will enable CO2-

EOR production to grow steadily between now and year 2020. 

The main findings of our study, discussed in-depth in this section of the report, are as follows:

1. We anticipate nearly seven-fold growth in capture and utilization of CO2 from gas 

processing and other industrial sources, chemical facilities and power plants. Current (year 

2012) utilization of industrial CO2 by EOR is 0.4 Bcfd (8 MMmt per year). This volume is 

expected to reach 3.0 Bcfd (58 MMmt) by 2020 (Exhibit 5-1). Much of the increased capture 

and utilization of industrial CO2 between today and year 2020 will be from the numerous 

announced industrial and other plants along the Gulf Coast. 

Overall CO2 utilization by CO2-EOR (including natural CO2, natural gas processing and other 

industrial sources) is projected to more than double by year 2020, from 3.1 Bcfd (60 MMmt) 

today to 6.4 Bcfd (124 MMmt) (Exhibit 5-2 and Exhibit 5-3). 
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Exhibit 5-1 Utilization of natural and industrial CO2 with EOR 

Exhibit 5-2 Utilization of natural and industrial CO2 for EOR by region 
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Exhibit 5-3 Projected near-term CO2 utilization by region and source 

Region Supply Source Daily CO2 Supply (MMcfd) 

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 

Permian 

Basin 

Natural 1,565 1,605 1,820 1,850 2,050 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 

Natural Gas 

Processing 165 165 175 335 335 335 335 335 335 

Industrial 

Sources - - - - 94 94 94 94 94 

Total 1,730 1,770 1,995 2,185 2,479 2,729 2,729 2,729 2,729 

Gulf 

Coast 

Natural 935 935 960 990 1,020 1,025 1,055 1,045 995 

Natural Gas 

Processing - 10 50 50 50 50 155 260 260 

Industrial 

Sources 5 75 315 480 580 1,046 1,186 1,386 

Total 935 950 1,085 1,355 1,550 1,655 2,256 2,491 2,641 

Rockies 

Natural 30 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 

Natural Gas 

Processing 215 250 265 390 390 390 390 520 520 

Industrial 

Sources - - - - - 108 183 183 183 

Total 245 300 315 440 440 548 623 753 753 

MidContinent 

Natural 35 35 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 

Natural Gas 

Processing - - - - - - - - - 

Industrial 

Sources 50 73 115 225 225 225 225 225 225 

Total 85 108 150 295 295 295 295 295 295 

Total 

Supply 

Natural 2,565 2,625 2,865 2,960 3,190 3,445 3,475 3,465 3,415 

Natural Gas 

Processing 380 425 490 775 775 775 880 1,115 1,115 

Industrial 

Sources 50 78 190 540 799 1,006 1,548 1,688 1,888 

Total 2,995 3,128 3,545 4,275 4,764 5,226 5,903 6,268 6,418 

2. We anticipate that CO2-EOR production will grow significantly, reaching 405,000 

barrels per day by 2015 and 615,000 barrels per day by year 2020. While CO2-EOR oil 

production in all four regions examined by this study is expected to increase, the Permian Basin 

and the Gulf Coast are projected to lead the way, each with over 100,000 barrels per day of 

increased CO2-EOR oil production (Exhibit 5-4 and Exhibit 5-5). 

 Permian Basin. Continued production from current projects and expansion of smaller 

floods to field-wide CO2 floods is expected to increase enhanced production from 

186,000 barrels per day in 2012 to 301,000 barrels per day by 2020. 

 Gulf Coast. Increasing production from 20 current Gulf Coast CO2 floods combined 

with the start-up of new CO2 floods in East Texas (Webster, Conroe, and Thompson) is 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

16 

expected to increase production from 43,000 barrels per day in 2012 to 153,000 barrels 

per day by 2020. 

 Rockies. The addition of the Bell Creek and Grieve CO2 floods, along with expanded 

CO2 supplies, is expected to increase enhanced production in the Rockies from 36,000 

barrels per day in 2012 to 103,000 barrels per day in 2020. 

 Mid-Continent. The addition of the Northeast Hardesty CO2 flood and significant 

expansion of the Burbank project is expected to increase enhanced production in the MidContinent from 17,000 barrels per day in 2012 to 58,000 barrels per day by 2020. 

Exhibit 5-4 Projected CO2-EOR production by region 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

17 

Exhibit 5-5 Projected near-term CO2-EOR oil production 

Region Project 

Type 

CO2-EOR Oil Production (MBbld) 

2012 2015 2020 

Permian Basin 

Current 186 204 199 

Expansion - 37 102 

Total 186 241 301 

Gulf Coast 

Current 43 56 62 

Planned - 2 48 

Potential - 15 43 

Total 43 73 153 

Rockies 

Current 36 42 39 

Planned - 2 10 

Potential - 12 55 

Total 36 55 103 

Mid-Continent 

Current 17 20 25 

Planned - 12 26 

Potential - 4 6 

Total 17 37 58 

Total Production 

Current 282 321 325 

Planned - 15 84 

Potential* - 68 206 

Total 282 405 615 

* Includes Permian Basin "Expansion" Projects 

3. Major new CO2 pipelines are in place, capable of delivering expanded volumes of 

CO2 for utilization by EOR. In the past several years, industry has installed and placed into 

operation several new CO2 pipelines. These include the Green CO2 Pipeline along the Gulf 

Coast, the Greencore CO2 Pipeline in the Rockies, the Coffeyville to Burbank CO2 Pipeline in 

the Mid-Continent, and the Eastern Shelf CO2 Pipeline in West Texas. Recently, Kinder Morgan 

announced a new, 213-mile, 16-inch diameter pipeline to transport carbon dioxide (CO2) from 

the company’s St. Johns source field in Apache County, Arizona, to the Kinder Morgan-operated 

Cortez Pipeline in Torrance County, New Mexico. (1) While current CO2 pipeline infrastructure 

will need to expand to meet anticipated demand, we expect that moderate distance laterals and 

extensions of large-scale pipelines will enable more oil fields that are favorable for CO2-EOR to 

be linked with supplies of CO2. Exhibit 5-6 lists the major active CO2 transport pipelines that 

supply most of the CO2-EOR projects in the U.S. 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

18 

Exhibit 5-6 Major U.S. CO2 pipelines in 2012 (5) 

Region Pipeline Operator State 

Est. 

Capacity 

(MMcfd) 

Diameter 

(in) 

Length 

(mi) 

Permian 

Basin 

Bravo Oxy Permian NM/TX 362 20 218 

Canyon Reef Kinder Morgan TX 223 16 139 

Center Line Kinder Morgan TX 223 16 113 

Central Basin Kinder Morgan TX 223 16 143 

Cortez Kinder Morgan TX 1,220 30 550 

Eastern Shelf Kinder Morgan TX 100 10 91 

Este ExxonMobil TX 135/176 12/14 84 

Sheep Mountain Oxy Permian TX 590 24 407 

W. TX Trinity Trinity CO2 TX/NM 83 12 60 

Wellman PetroSource TX 67 6 26 

Gulf Coast 

Choctaw Denbury MS/LA 362 20 183 

Delta Denbury MS/LA 590 24 108 

Free State Denbury MS 362 20 86 

Green Denbury LA 932 24 274 

Sonat Denbury MS 166 18 50 

Rockies 

Greencore Denbury MT/WY 725 20 232 

Powder River Basin Anadarko WY 223 16 125 

Shute Creek ExxonMobil WY 1,220 24 28 

MidContinent 

Coffeyville Chaparral 

Energy OK 67 6 23 

Transpetco Transpetco TX/OK 83 8 110 

4. With access to additional volumes of CO2, industry has announced the start of 

numerous new CO2 enhanced oil recovery projects. Industry has announced the start a series of 

new, large-scale CO2-EOR projects in mature domestic oil fields. Along with expansion of 

existing CO2 floods, new CO2-EOR projects expected online by 2020 include: Conroe, 

Thompson, Webster, and West Ranch along the Gulf Coast; Bell Creek, Grieve, and Poplar 

Dome in the Rockies; and Burbank and Northeast Hardesty in the Mid-Continent. 

In addition to the new CO2-EOR projects coming online by 2020, numerous other CO2 floods are 

scheduled to start after 2020: 

 Denbury has announced that the Hartzog Draw field will be operational after 2020 and 

will provide an ultimate incremental recovery of about 25 million barrels of oil. 

 Denbury has also announced that several fields within the Cedar Creek Anticline in 

Montana and South Dakota will be operational after 2020, with an ultimate incremental 

recovery of about 275 million barrels of oil. 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

19 

 Operators in the Permian Basin are currently identifying a number of oil fields amenable 

to EOR, which have yet to be announced. 

 Should the Hydrogen Energy California (HECA) IGCC plant come online between 2018 

and 2020, upwards of 150 million cubic feet per day of CO2 would become available for 

EOR operations. The majority of this CO2 would be utilized at a new EOR flood in the 

large Elk Hills oil field in Kern County, CA. 

5. This near-term projection provides a conservative estimate of additional CO2

supplies and CO2-EOR based oil production. Looking ahead to 2020, we see a much more 

robust CO2 enhanced oil recovery industry, with major new sources of industrial CO2 being 

captured and utilized for EOR. No doubt some of the currently planned industrial sources of 

CO2 will not materialize. However, these will be more than replaced by numerous new fertilizer, 

chemical, ethanol, and other industrial plants with high purity CO2 emissions looking to sell their 

captured CO2 to the CO2-EOR industry for oil production and CO2 storage. New discoveries of 

subsurface CO2 reservoirs could also increase CO2 supply. (7) 

Exhibit 5-7 lists 14 new natural gas processing and industrial sources of CO2 announced since 

2010. Of these new projects, five are already supplying CO2 to EOR operations (PCS Nitrogen, 

Inc., Conestoga Bonanza, Conestoga Arkalon, LaBarge expansion, and Val Verde expansion) 

and the remaining nine are due online between 2016 and 2020. 

Exhibit 5-7 New natural gas processing and industrial CO2 sources announced between 2010 and 

2013 

Region Project Name Company State Status Year 

Online 

Gulf Coast 

PCS Nitrogen PCS Nitrogen LA Online 2013 

Ammonia Plant Denbury LA Expected 2016 

NRG Power Plant NRG Energy TX Expected 2017 

Sasol GTL Sasol LA Expected 2018 

Kentucky NewGas ConocoPhillips/Peabody KY Expected 2018 

Chemical Plant Denbury LA Expected 2020 

Rockies 

DKRW Phase 1 Medicine Bow WY Expected 2016 

Riley Ridge Denbury WY Expected 2017 

Linc Energy UCG Linc Energy WY Expected 2017 

Quintana South Heart Great Northern Power ND Expected 2017 

LaBarge Expansion Exxon WY Online 2012 

Mid-Continent Conestoga Arkalon Conestoga KS Online 2011 

Conestoga Bonanza Conestoga KS Online 2013 

Permian 

Basin 

Val Verde Gas Plant 

Expansion Blue Source TX Online 2012 

Exhibit 5-8 outlines the volumes of CO2 from these 14 sources by region that are likely to 

become available by 2020. This 1,180 million cubic feet per day supports nearly 90,000 barrels 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

20 

per day of new CO2-EOR oil production based on the average CO2 utilization ratio for each 

region. 

Exhibit 5-8 CO2 sources announced between 2010 and 2013 and associated oil production by 

region 

Region 

New CO2

Supplies 

(MMcfd) 

Projected New 

EOR 

(MBbld) 

Gulf Coast 850 48,570 

Rockies 310 38,750 

Mid-Continent 10 1,540 

Permian Basin 10 1,110 

Total 1,180 89,970 

Using history as the guideline, it is likely that additional yet-unknown natural gas processing and 

chemical plants will be installed in the U.S. over the next six years. This renders the baseline 

near-term projection of CO2 supplies available for EOR as a relatively conservative estimate. 

Using currently available and announced CO2 supplies, the Baseline Case is for an estimated 

615,000 barrels of oil per day from EOR by 2020 (Exhibit 5-9). 

Exhibit 5-9 Baseline vs. upside projection of CO2-EOR production by 2020 

Study Case Comparison 

Oil Production by 

2020 

(Bbld) 

Baseline CO2-EOR Case 615,000 

6. Along with the production of increased volumes of domestic oil, the CO2-EOR 

industry is on pace to store a billion metric tons of CO2 from gas processing and industrial 

sources during the next 20 years. These CO2 storage volumes are only from the active, 

announced and projected CO2-EOR projects in place by year 2020. Including CO2-EOR projects 

scheduled or projected to start after year 2020, significantly higher volumes of CO2 from natural 

gas processing and industrial sources would be utilized for and stored with CO2-EOR during this 

20-year time period. 

We estimate that nearly 10 million metric tons of CO2 from natural gas processing and industrial 

sources was stored in underground formations in 2013 using to CO2-EOR. This total will 

increase to 25 million metric tons in 2015 and to 58 million metric tons in 2020. 

The Baseline CO2 Storage Case, assuming a constant storage rate of 58 million metric tons per 

year going forward, indicates that over 1 billion metric tons of CO2 will be stored using CO2-

EOR in the next 20 years (Exhibit 5-10). If the CO2 utilization rate were to continue on its 

current trend of increasing by 7 million metric tons per year, the Upside CO2 Case storage would 
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

21 

be equal to 1.7 billion metric tons of CO2 from natural gas processing, and other industrial 

sources stored with CO2-EOR over the next 20 years. 

Exhibit 5-10 Projection of 1 billion metric tons of CO2 stored from current natural gas processing 

and industrial sources 

 

1.7 billion mt CO2

1 billion mt CO2
Near-Term Projections of CO2 Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery 

22 

6 References 

1. Business Wire. Kinder Morgan to Invest Approximately $1 Billion to Expand Vast CO2

Network. Business Wire. [Online] March 26, 2014. 

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140326005342/en/Kinder-Morgan-InvestApproximately-1-Billion-Expand. 

2. Koottungal, Leena. 2012 Worldwide EOR Survey. Oil & Gas Journal. April 2, 2012. 

3. DiPietro, P., Balash, P. & M. Wallace. A Note on Sources of CO2 Supply for Enhanced-OilRecovery Operations. SPE Economics & Management. April 2012. 

4. Murrell, Glen. Wyoming CO2 Status and Developments. University of Wyoming : 7th Annual 

Wyoming CO2 Conference, July 11, 2013. 

5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2014 Early 

release. December 16, 2013. DOE/EIA-0383ER. 

6. Global CCS Institute. The Global Status of CCS: 2013, Appendix E: Existing CO2 Transport 

Infrastructure. 2013. 

7. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Subsurface Sources of CO2 in the United 

States, Volume II: Exploration of CO2 Systems. [Online] March 2014. 

http://netl.doe.gov/research/energy-analysis/publications/details?pub=1dbb77ae-fb49-486c-8a31-

abdd4d904e0f. 

 
www.netl.doe.gov 

Pittsburgh, PA • Morgantown, WV • Albany, OR • Sugar Land, TX • Anchorage, AK 

(800) 553-7681 

Phil DiPietro 

joseph.dipietro@netl.doe.gov

Bob Wallace 

robert.wallace@contr.netl.doe.gov