PECHAN

3622 Lyckan Parkway 

Suite 2005 

Durham, NC 27707 

919-493-3144 telephone 

919-493-3182 facsimile 

5528-B Hempstead Way 

Springfield, VA 22151 

703-813-6700 telephone 

703-813-6729 facsimile 

DEVELOPMENT OF 2005 

BASE YEAR GROWTH AND 

CONTROL FACTORS FOR 

LAKE MICHIGAN AIR 

DIRECTORS CONSORTIUM 

(LADCO) 

FINAL REPORT 

Prepared for: 

Mr. Michael Koerber 

Executive Director 

Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium 

9501 West Devon Avenue, Suite 701 

Rosemont, IL 60018 

Prepared by: 

Andrew D. Bollman 

James H. Wilson 

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 

3622 Lyckan Parkway, Suite 2005 

Durham, NC 27707 

September 2007 

Pechan Report No. 07.09.001/9458.000
[This page intentionally left blank]
PECHAN September 2007 

 iii Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO – Final Report 

CONTENTS

Page

TABLES ........................................................................................................................................ iv 

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS....................................................................................... v 

SECTION I. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................... 1 

SECTION II. EMISSION ACTIVITY GROWTH DATA ....................................................... 3 

A. OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................... 3 

B. AREA SOURCE/MAR CATEGORIES............................................................................. 3 

C. NON-EGU POINT SOURCES......................................................................................... 14 

D. NONROAD MODEL SOURCES .................................................................................... 23 

SECTION III. UPDATED EMISSION CONTROL DATA.................................................... 27 

A. NON-EGU POINT SOURCE CONTROLS..................................................................... 27 

1. NOx SIP Call................................................................................................................. 27 

2. MACT Standards .......................................................................................................... 27 

3. Consent Decrees............................................................................................................ 27 

4. On-the-Books (OTB) Control Additions ...................................................................... 35 

5. Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART)............................................................... 35 

B. AREA SOURCE/MAR CONTROLS............................................................................... 40 

1. Area Sources ................................................................................................................. 40 

2. MAR Sources (Locomotives and Marine Vessels)....................................................... 44 

SECTION IV. PREPARATION OF GROWTH AND CONTROL FILES ............................. 49 

A. GROWTH FACTORS...................................................................................................... 49 

B. CONTROL FACTORS..................................................................................................... 51 

1. Point Source Control Factors........................................................................................ 51 

2. Area Source and MAR Control Factors........................................................................ 52 

SECTION V. REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 55 
PECHAN September 2007 

 iv Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO – Final Report 

TABLES 

Table II-1. Priority Emission Activity Area Source/MAR Categories........................................... 4 

Table II-2. Growth Indicators for Priority Area Source/MAR Categories ..................................... 7 

Table II-3. Priority Emission Activity Point Source Categories................................................... 15 

Table II-4. Growth Indicators for Priority Point Source Categories............................................. 19 

Table II-5. Priority Emission Activity NONROAD Model Source Categories............................ 24 

Table II-6. Growth Indicators for Priority NONROAD Model Source Categories...................... 25 

Table III-1. RICE Engines in Illinois Affected by NOx SIP Call ................................................ 28 

Table III-2. Post-2005 MACT Standards and Expected VOC, NOx, and PM Reductions.......... 29 

Table III-3. LADCO State Non-EGU Point Sources Affected by Consent Decree Requirements 

and Other On-the-Books Controls ................................................................................................ 32 

Table III-4. Ohio RACT Rule Summary Cleveland/Akron 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area 35 

Table III-5. BART Eligible Non-EGU Sources........................................................................... 36 

Table III-6. Residential Wood Combustion NSPS Emission Reductions ................................... 43 

Table III-7. Locomotive Emissions Reported in EPA Draft RIA................................................ 45 

Table III-8. Percentage Reductions Associated with Federal Locomotive Standards................. 46 

Table III-9. Percentage Reductions Associated with Federal CMV Standards........................... 47 

Table III-10. Commercial Marine Vessel Rule Penetration Values ............................................ 48 

Table IV-1. RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format for Growth/Control Data.............................. 50 

Table IV-2. Fields Populated in Growth Factor File .................................................................... 51 

Table IV-3. Fields Populated in Point Source Control Factor File............................................... 53 

Table IV-4. Fields Populated in Area Source/MAR Control Factor File ..................................... 54 
PECHAN September 2007 

 v Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO – Final Report 

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 

AEO Annual Energy Outlook

AIM architectural and industrial maintenance 

BART best available retrofit technology 

CE control efficiency 

CMV commercial marine vessel 

DEQ Department of Environmental Quality 

DOE Department of Energy 

EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System 

EGU electric generating unit 

EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency 

FAA Federal Aviation Administration 

FCCUs fluid catalytic cracking units 

FCU fluid coking units 

FGR flue gas recirculation 

HAP hazardous air pollutant 

IC internal combustion 

LADCO Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium 

LAER lowest achievable emission rate 

LNB low NOx burner 

MACT maximum achievable control technology 

MAR marine, aircraft, and railroad 

MSAT mobile source air toxics 

NAAQS national ambient air quality standards 

NH3 ammonia 

NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model 

NOx oxides of nitrogen 

NSPS new source performance standard 

OTB on-the-books 

OWB outdoor wood boiler 

Pechan E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 

PFC portable fuel container 

PM particulate matter 

PM-2.5 particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers 

RACT reasonably available control technology 

RE rule effectiveness 

REMI Regional Economic Models, Inc. 

RIA Regulatory Impact Analysis 

RICE reciprocating internal combustion engines 

ROG reactive organic gases 

RP rule penetration 

RPO Regional Planning Organization 

SCC source classification code 
PECHAN September 2007 

 vi Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO – Final Report 

SIC standard industrial classification 

SIP State Implementation Plan 

tpy tons per year 

SO2 sulfur dioxide 

VOC volatile organic compound 
PECHAN Septenber 2007 

 1 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

SECTION I. BACKGROUND

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. (Pechan) is supporting the Lake Michigan Air Directors 

Consortium’s (LADCO) efforts to forecast anthropogenic emissions for the purpose of assessing 

progress for air quality goals, including goals related to regional haze and attainment of the 

ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). Under a previous contract with 

LADCO, Pechan prepared emission activity growth and emission control data for all non-electric 

generating unit (EGU) point, area, and nonroad source categories relative to a base year (2002) 

inventory supplied by LADCO. In December 2004, Pechan submitted emissions activity growth 

and control factor files for use by LADCO in emissions modeling. A December 14, 2004 Pechan 

report documents the contents and derivation of these files (Pechan, 2004). Revised files were 

later provided to LADCO in March 2005. 

In September 2005, LADCO contracted with Pechan to conduct the following two tasks to 

develop updated growth and control factors needed to support future year control strategy 

analyses for regional haze, particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM-2.5), and 

ozone: 

 Task 1: Update control factors to reflect current information pertaining to: 

 (a) Petroleum refinery cases and settlements; 

 (b) Maximum achievable control technology (MACT) standard control efficiency 

assumptions; 

 (c) Residential wood combustion unit lifetime; and 

 (d) Regional Planning Organization (RPO) inventories. 

 Task 2: Develop non-EGAS default-based emission activity growth factors for: 

 (a) Priority point source categories; and 

 (b) Priority area source categories. 

A December 2005 report describes Pechan efforts to perform these tasks, which resulted in 

updated emissions activity growth and control factor files (Pechan, 2005). The updates reflect 

the use of more recent and/or more detailed information than that used in the earlier study. As 

with the earlier study, this effort involved the preparation of emission activity growth and control 

information relative to a 2002 base year inventory for future years of interest. Control 

information was developed for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2018 (e.g., 2018 is the first 

milestone for regional haze reasonable progress demonstrations). Because the incremental level 

of effort required to develop emission activity growth factors for each year over the 2003-2018 

period was nominal, Pechan prepared non-EGU point and area and nonroad source growth 

factors for each year over this entire period. 

For the current study, LADCO requested that Pechan develop growth and control factor files to 

support emission projections from a recently compiled 2005 base year inventory for the 

following LADCO states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. 

LADCO requested that Pechan provide files representing changes in emission activity and 

emission control between the base year and 2009, 2012, and 2018. As with the previous studies, 

Pechan provided updated point/area source and marine, aircraft, and railroad (MAR) category 
PECHAN Septenber 2007 

 2 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

growth factors for each year over the 2006-2018 period. Control factor development focused on 

the modeling years of interest, or in the case of point source controls, the specific anticipated 

implementation date within the forecast period. 

This report is organized into this Background section and: 

• Section II, which describes the development of the emission activity growth data; 

• Section III, which discusses how the updated emission control data were compiled; 

• Section IV, which describes the preparation of the updated growth and control factor 

files; and 

• Section V, which presents the references consulted in preparing this report. 
PECHAN Septenber 2007 

 3 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

SECTION II. EMISSION ACTIVITY GROWTH DATA

A. OVERVIEW 

As with the two previous studies, Pechan relied on the data incorporated into Version 5.0 of the 

Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) as the default growth factor data source.1

 The 

EGAS 5.0 projections data are typically derived from two main resources: (1) version 5.5 of 

Regional Economic Models Incorporated (REMI)’s state-level economic models; and (2) the 

Department of Energy (DOE)’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2004. While socioeconomic 

growth indicators from the REMI models provide state-level growth rates, the DOE energy 

forecasts provide regional or national growth rates (e.g., the same growth rate is applied to each 

LADCO state because each of these states is included in the DOE’s East North Central division). 

Instead of relying on REMI’s population forecasts, Pechan developed growth factors from 

county-level population projections available from each LADCO region state. 

LADCO requested that Pechan review the growth indicators applied to particular source 

classification codes (SCCs) in the 2005 base year inventory. For these “priority” source 

categories, Pechan evaluated alternative growth methodologies and data sources before selecting 

a forecasting approach. The balance of this section describes the emission activity growth data 

developed in this study. Section IV discusses how these data were compiled into the file format 

required by LADCO. 

B. AREA SOURCE/MAR CATEGORIES 

LADCO provided Pechan with a list of priority point/area source and MAR categories for which 

emission activity projection improvements were to be evaluated. For these source categories, 

Pechan reviewed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) SCC documentation and 

emission estimation guidance to identify the emissions activity (throughput) data associated with 

each SCC. Pechan then investigated the availability of LADCO state-specific projections for 

these data. 

Table II-1 presents the descriptions and emissions activity for each priority area source/MAR 

category. The last column in this table identifies each category’s growth indicator assignment 

under the previous Pechan forecast effort (Pechan, 2005). Table II-2 displays the assigned 

growth indicator for each priority area/MAR source category and any alternative indicators that 

were considered. This table also presents the percentage growth rates for the assigned indicators 

over two forecast periods: 2005-2009 and 2005-2018. 

In addition to population data from the LADCO states and REMI employment data, the 

following information sources supplied data used in estimating emission activity growth for the 

priority area source/MAR categories: 

 

1 Information on these EGAS 5.0 data sources is provided in the report documenting the earliest study Pechan 

performed for LADCO (Pechan, 2004). 
 PECHAN 

 4 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-1. Priority Emission Activity Area Source/MAR Categories 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CURR

NH3 2805047100 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Swine production - deeppit house operations (unspecified animal 

Confinement Annual average number of swine REMI 

NH3 2805039200 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Swine production - operations with lagoons (unspecified animal 

Manure handling and storage 

Annual average number of swine REMI 

NH3 2805047300 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Swine production - deeppit house operations (unspecified animal 

Land application of manure 

Annual average number of swine REMI 

NH3 2805001100 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Beef cattle - finishing operations on feedlots (drylots) 

Confinement Annual average number of beef 

cattle 

REMI 

NH3 2805039100 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Swine production - operations with lagoons (unspecified animal 

Confinement Annual average number of swine REMI 

NH3 2805003100 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Beef cattle - finishing operations on pasture/range 

Confinement Annual average number of beef 

cattle 

REMI 

NH3 2805001300 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Beef cattle - finishing operations on feedlots (drylots) 

Land application of manure 

Annual average number of beef cattle 

REMI 

NH3 2630020000 Wastewater Treatment Public Owned Total Processed Volume of wastewater processed REMI NH3 2805007100 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Poultry production - layers with dry manure management system 

Confinement Annual average number of poultry Regre

sector 

NH3 2805021300 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Dairy cattle - scrape dairy Land application of 

manure 

Annual average number of dairy cattle 

Regreexplan

NH3 2805030000 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Poultry Waste Emissions Not Elsewhere 

Classified (see also 28-05-007 -008-009) 

Annual average number of poultry REMI 

NH3 2805021200 Agriculture Production 

- Livestock 

Dairy cattle - scrape dairy Manure handling and 

storage 

Annual average number of dairy cattle 

Regreexplan

NH3 2104008070 Residential Wood Outdoor Boiler Amount of wood burned 

NOX 2285002006 Railroad Equipment Diesel Line Haul Locomotives: 

Class I Operations 

Amount of diesel consumed by Class I line-haul locomotives 

AEO Frelativ

NOX 2280002023 Marine Vessels 

Commercial 

Diesel Push Boats Amount of diesel consumed by 

commercial push boats 

AEO SrelativTransp

NOX 2102006001 Industrial Natural Gas All Boiler Types Volume of natural gas burned by 

industrial area source boilers 

AEO I
 PECHAN 

 5 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-1 (continued) 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CU

NOX 2275020000 Aircraft Commercial Aircraft Total: All Types Number of commercial aircraft 

landing-takeoff cycles 

Feitin(LT

NOX 2285002010 Railroad Equipment Diesel Yard Locomotives Amount of diesel consumed by 

yard locomotives 

AEfor ou

NOX 2104006000 Residential Natural Gas Total: All Combustor 

Types 

Volume of residential natural gas consumed 

AE

NOX 2285002009 Railroad Equipment Diesel Line Haul 

Locomotives: Commuter Lines 

Amount of diesel consumed by commuter locomotives 

AEad

NOX 2280003200 Marine Vessels Commercial Residual Underway emissions Amount of residual oil 

consumed by CMV during underway operations 

AEfor Tr

NOX 2102006000 Industrial Natural Gas Total: Boilers and IC 

Engines 

Volume of natural gas burned by industrial area source boilers and IC engines 

AE

NOX 2104008070 Residential Wood Outdoor Boiler Amount of wood burned 

ROG 2461850000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Commercial 

Pesticide Application: Agricultural 

All Processes (Not listed for this SCC) Re

"P

ROG 2461020000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Commercial 

Asphalt Application: All Processes 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used Re

"POp

ROG 2401200000 Surface Coating Other Special Purpose 

Coatings 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used Po

ROG 2401001000 Surface Coating Architectural Coatings Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used Re

levso

ROG 2460100000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Consumer and Commercial 

All Personal Care Products Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used Po

sta

ROG 2501011010 Petroleum and Petroleum 

Product Storage 

Portable Gas Cans Residential Volume of gasoline stored RE

ROG 2501060100 Petroleum and Petroleum 

Product Storage 

Gasoline Service Stations Stage 2: Total Volume of gasoline pumped by 

stations 

ReEx

ROG 2460800000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Consumer and Commercial 

All FIFRA Related Products Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used Re

for va

ROG 2501060050 Petroleum and Petroleum 

Product Storage 

Gasoline Service Stations Stage 1: Total Volume of gasoline pumped 

into stations 

RE

ROG 2460400000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Consumer and Commercial 

All Automotive Aftermarket Products 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used Po

sta

ROG 2425000000 Graphic Arts All Processes Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

ou

ROG 2401005000 Surface Coating Auto Refinishing: SIC 7532 Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

Se

ROG 2460500000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Consumer and Commercial 

All Coatings and Related Products 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used Po

sta
 PECHAN 

 6 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-1 (continued) 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CU

ROG 2460200000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Consumer and Commercial 

All Household Products Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used Po

sta

ROG 2415020000 Degreasing Fabricated Metal Products 

(SIC 34): All Processes 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

em

ROG 2415025000 Degreasing Industrial Machinery and 

Equipment (SIC 35): All Processes 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

Eq

ROG 2460600000 Miscellaneous Non-industrial: 

Consumer and Commercial 

All Adhesives and Sealants Total: All Solvent 

Types 

Amount of solvent used Po

sta

ROG 2420000370 Dry Cleaning All Processes Special Naphthas Amount of special naphthas 

used 

SCSCLa

ROG 2630010000 Wastewater Treatment Industrial Total Processed Volume of wastewater 

processed 

Prde

ROG 2501060101 Petroleum and Petroleum 

Product Storage 

Gasoline Service Stations Stage 2: 

Displacement Loss/Uncontrolled 

Volume of gasoline pumped via uncontrolled 

ReEx

ROG 2415360000 Degreasing Auto Repair Services (SIC 

75): Cold Cleaning 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

Se

ROG 2401002000 Surface Coating Architectural Coatings - 

Solvent-based 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

ROG 2401003000 Surface Coating Architectural Coatings - 

Water-based 

Total: All Solvent Types 

Amount of solvent used RE

ROG 2104008070 Residential Wood Outdoor Boiler Amount of wood burned 

SO2 2601020000 On-site Incineration Commercial/Institutional Total Amount of material burned RESO2 2102004000 Industrial Distillate Oil Total: Boilers and IC 

Engines 

Amount of distillate oil burned by area source industrial boilers/IC engines 

AE

SO2 2103004000 Commercial/Institutional Distillate Oil Total: Boilers and IC 

Engines 

Amount of distillate oil burned by area source commercial boilers/IC engines 

No da

SO2 2275020000 Aircraft Commercial Aircraft Total: All Types See NOX entry FA

sta

SO2 2102005000 Industrial Residual Oil Total: All Boiler 

Types 

Amount of residual oil burned by area source industrial boilers 

AE

SO2 2102002000 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Total: All Boiler Types 

Amount of bit/sub coal burned by area source industrial boilers 

AE

SO2 2285002006 Railroad Equipment Diesel Line Haul 

Locomotives: Class I Operations 

See NOX entry AE

for 

SO2 2104008070 Residential Wood Outdoor Boiler Amount of wood burned 
 PECHAN 

 7 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-2. Growth Indicators for Priority Area Source/MAR Categories 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered 

NH3 2805047100 -1.7 6.2 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805039200 -2.3 4.4 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805047300 -1.6 6.4 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805001100 5.2 16.7 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805039100 -1.6 6.4 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805003100 3.2 3.5 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805001300 5.2 16.7 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2630020000 2.8 9.5 Municipal design flow forecasts from Drinking Water Infrastructure Needs 

Survey 

NH3 2805007100 -4.5 8.3 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805021300 -10.2 -39.0 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805030000 -5.3 6.8 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2805021200 -10.2 -39.0 Interpolated SCC/state-level animal count projections from EPA NH3 

inventory of Animal Husbandry Operations 

 

NH3 2104008070 78.0 84.3 Extrapolation of national 1999-2004 trend in OWB sales (exponential 

growth) thru 2006; linear growth thru 2008; 2009+ based on rural population growth rate 

NOX 2285002006 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -1.4% per year; 

forecast = 1.4% per year 

NOX 2280002023 4.3 9.9 AEO national Domestic Shipping sector distillate projections adjusted for 

LADCO region growth in REMI Water Transportation sector output relative to nation 

1998-2004 fuel consumption data barge traffic on regional rivers indisimilar annual growth rate (1.0%) 

NOX 2102006001 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per yea

AEO forecast = 1.4% per year 

NOX 2275020000 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends (Federal 

Aviation Administration commercial aircraft landing and take-offs data) 

FAA 1990-2005 = -0.01% per yearforecast = 1.7% per year 

NOX 2285002010 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trend (historic trend 

based on 1996-2002 regional Switch and Terminal Services employment) 

1996-2004 = -1.6% per year employment decrease; AEO foreca1.4% per year 

NOX 2104006000 1.7 2.8 AEO residential natural gas consumption forecast DOE 1990-2004 = 0.5% annual; A

forecast = 0.2% 
 PECHAN 

 8 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-2 (continued) 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Cons

NOX 2285002009 7.4 26.1 Annual growth rate (1.8%) from 2005-2009 diesel fuel consumption projections 

reported in Marta 2007 budget 

NOX 2280003200 0.4 1.3 1995-2005 Great Lakes region ton-miles trend (0.1% annual growth) AEO forecasts nat

Shipping residual o+1.1% per year 

NOX 2102006000 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = 1.4

NOX 2104008070 78.0 84.3 Extrapolation of national 1999-2004 trend in OWB sales (exponential growth) thru 

2006; linear growth thru 2008; 2009+ based on rural population growth rate 

ROG 2461850000 4.8 16.1 Regional employment projections for "Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers" combined with 

projected solvent content change from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Agricultural Chemical Market for Solvents" (-0.4% per year) 

 

ROG 2461020000 -1.9 -6.0 No employment growth assumption due to contradictory historic and forecast trends in 

"Paving, Surfacing, & Tamping Operators" employment, combined with projected solvent content change from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Asphalt Production 

Market for Solvents" (-0.5% per year) 

 

ROG 2401200000 -6.5 -16.1 Population forecast combined with projected change in paint solvent content from 

Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Paints/Coatings Market for Solvents" (-1.9% per year) 

 

ROG 2401001000 -9.9 -9.3 Regression with Population forecast as explanatory variable combined with Freedonia 

projected change in proportion of total Architectural coatings that are solvent-based (-

2.0% per year) 

 

ROG 2460100000 -3.9 -11.6 Population forecast combined with projected solvent content change from Freedonia's 

"Solvents to 2010-Cosmetics & Toiletries Market for Solvents" (-1.5% per year) 

 

ROG 2501011010 0.2 0.3 Regression equation with Gas and Oil Expenditures as explanatory variable ROG 2501060100 0.2 0.3 Regression equation with Gas and Oil Expenditures as explanatory variable ROG 2460800000 -10.5 -15.6 Regression equation with Population as explanatory variable ROG 2501060050 0.2 0.3 Regression equation with Gas and Oil Expenditures as explanatory variable ROG 2460400000 0.1 3.3 Population forecast combined with projected change in solvent use/vehicle from 

Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Transportation Markets for Solvents" (-0.4% per year) 

 

ROG 2425000000 0.0 0.0 No employment growth assumption due to contradictory historic and forecast trends 

for "Printing Machine Operators" employment, and no projected change in solvent content of ink from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Printing Ink Market for Solvents" 

ROG 2401005000 -12.9 -38.9 Employment projections for "Automotive Body and Related Repairers" combined w/ 

change in proportion of automotive coatings that are solvent-based from Freedonia's "Automotive Coatings, Adhesives & Sealants-Automotive Coatings Demand by 

Formulation and Substrate" (-4.3% per year) 

 

ROG 2460500000 -6.5 -16.1 Population forecast combined with projected change in paint solvent content from 

Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Paints/Coatings Market for Solvents" (-1.9% per year) 

 
 PECHAN 

 9 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-2 (continued) 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Cons

ROG 2460200000 0.6 6.8 Population forecast combined with projected change in cleaning product solvent 

content from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Cleaning Product Market for Solvents" (-0.1% per year) 

 

ROG 2415020000 -15.0 -35.9 Fabricated Metals sector employment forecast combined with projected change in 

solvent use from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Metal Processing Market for Solvents" (-3.7% per year) 

 

ROG 2415025000 0.2 -11.4 Machinery and Computer Equipment sector employment forecast combined with 

projected change in solvent use from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Metal Processing Market for Solvents" (-3.7% per year) 

 

ROG 2460600000 -10.0 -24.4 Population forecast combined with projected change in solvent content from 

Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Adhesives and Sealants Market for Solvents" (-2.7% per year) 

 

ROG 2420000370 -1.6 -0.4 Regional employment projections for "Laundry and Dry Cleaning Workers" (+0.7% per 

year) combined with projected solvent content from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Dry Cleaning and Other Markets for Solvents" (-0.7%) 

ROG 2630010000 4.1 13.8 Growth rate from regional industrial wastewater flow design forecast from Drinking 

Water Infrastructure Needs Survey 

ROG 2501060101 0.2 0.3 Regression equation with Gas and Oil Expenditures as explanatory variable ROG 2415360000 2.4 10.3 Regional employment projections for "Automotive Service Technicians and 

Mechanics" combined with forecast change in solvent use from "Solvents to 2010-Transportation Markets for Solvents" (-0.4% per year) 

ROG 2401002000 -9.9 -9.3 Regression with Population forecast as explanatory variable combined with Freedonia 

projected change in proportion of total Architectural coatings that are solvent-based (-

2.0% per year) 

 

ROG 2401003000 3.6 12.3 Regression equation with Population as explanatory variable ROG 2104008070 78.0 84.3 Extrapolation of national 1999-2004 trend in OWB sales (exponential growth) thru 

2006; linear growth thru 2008; 2009+ based on rural population growth rate 

SO2 2601020000 7.2 15.0 Commercial sector employment forecast SO2 2102004000 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = -0.

SO2 2103004000 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = 0.8

SO2 2275020000 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = +1

SO2 2102005000 -49.4 -49.6 AEO forecast for industrial sector residual oil consumption DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = -5.

SO2 2102002000 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = <-0
 PECHAN 

 10 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-2 (continued) 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Cons

SO2 2285002006 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = 

AEO forecast = +1

SO2 2104008070 78.0 84.3 Extrapolation of national 1999-2004 trend in OWB sales (exponential growth) thru 

2006; linear growth thru 2008; 2009+ based on rural population growth rate 
PECHAN September 2007 

 11 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

• Animal Husbandry: projected number of animals from EPA’s ammonia emission 

forecasts for animal husbandry operations (EPA, 2004); 

• Marine Vessels Commercial, Diesel–Push Boats: historical (1998-2004) fuel 

consumption for barge traffic on rivers in LADCO region (ENVIRON, 2007a); 

• Multiple Fuel Combustion categories: DOE East North Central region energy 

forecasts from AEO 2007 and 1990-2004 LADCO region energy consumption data 

(DOE, 2007a and 2007b); 

• Commercial Aircraft: state-level itinerant aircraft operations (FAA, 2007); 

• Diesel Line Haul Locomotives–Commuter Lines: Metra diesel fuel 

expenditure/price projections (Metra, 2007); 

• Pesticide Application–Agricultural: LADCO region projected number of “pesticide 

handlers, sprayers, and applicators, vegetation” (BLS, 2007); 

• Commercial Asphalt Application–All Processes: LADCO region projected number 

of “paving, surfacing, and tamping operators” (BLS, 2007); 

• Graphic Arts –All Processes: LADCO region projected number of “printing 

machine operators” (BLS, 2007); 

• Surface Coating–Auto Refinishing: SIC 7532: LADCO region projected number of 

“Automotive Body and Related Repairers” (BLS, 2007); 

• Dry Cleaning, All Processes–Special Naphthas: LADCO region projected number of 

“Laundry and Dry Cleaning Workers” (BLS, 2007); 

• Wastewater Treatment-Industrial: LADCO region projected wastewater treatment 

industrial design flow (EPA, 2007a); and 

• Degreasing–Auto Repair Services (SIC 75): Cold Cleaning: LADCO region 

projected number of “Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics” (BLS, 2007). 

Many of the above are solvent use categories for which Pechan also incorporated projected 

solvent content changes as forecast by The Freedonia Group, Inc. (Freedonia, 2006). 

In cases where energy consumption is the emissions activity, a common growth factor 

development approach was to compare available regional historical (1990-2004) energy 

consumption data to AEO 2007 forecast data to determine if the forecast growth rates appear 

suspect relative to historical trends. Pechan conducted similar historical/forecast activity trend 

comparisons for the non-fuel combustion priority categories whenever historical trend data were 

readily available (e.g., occupational employment data). In selecting from alternative data 
PECHAN September 2007 

 12 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

sources/trend data, the general decision-making hierarchy was as follows, listed in order of 

preference: 

1. If the forecast and historical trends were in the same direction, Pechan relied on forecast 

data (an exception was made, however, in cases where forecast data were only available 

on a national-level, but historical data were available for the LADCO region). 

2. If the forecast and historical trends were in different directions (e.g., forecast trend is for 

an increase in activity, but historical trend was a decrease), Pechan applied a no growth 

assumption. 

Outdoor Wood Boilers

Residential Wood Combustion from Outdoor Wood Boilers (SCC 2104008070) was not 

originally identified as a source category for growth indicator review because this category was 

only recently added to LADCO’s emissions inventory. Outdoor Wood Boilers (OWBs) have 

become much more prevalent in the last several years as homeowners seek ways to avoid recent 

large increases in natural gas and home heating oil prices. This source category does not exist in 

EPA’s official SCC list, and there is no current EPA emission inventory preparation guidance for 

this sector. Pechan assumed that this category’s emissions are based on the estimated number of 

wood boilers, the average amount of wood burned in each boiler, and emission factors that are 

related to the amount of wood burned. 

Investigations indicate little historical and forecast OWB data exist to assist in identifying future 

trends in LADCO region OWB use: state-specific sales from nine manufacturers obtained by 

EPA from nine manufacturers, and national sales data obtained by the New York Attorney 

General’s Office via subpoena of 21 manufacturers. These sales data are for 1999-2004. 

Because of the much greater manufacturer coverage for the national data, and because the state 

estimates indicate that the majority of recent OWBs sales have occurred in the LADCO states, 

Pechan focused the historical trend analysis on the national data. These data indicate an 

extremely high average growth rate of 41 percent per year over the 1999-2004 period. 

Manufacturers indicate that although OWBs have been available for sale since the 1980s, the 

very large OWB sales growth rates are new phenomenon. The growth rates appear to mainly 

result from homeowner reactions to recent large increases in residential heating prices (e.g., 

between 1999 and 2004, residential natural gas and distillate oil prices rose 61 and 87 percent, 

respectively). Because DOE data indicate that natural gas accounts for the majority of 

residential energy consumption in the LADCO States, and increases in residential natural gas 

prices continued through 2006 (the average annual price for residential natural gas increased 28 

percent between 2004 and 2006), Pechan forecast the national number of OWBs through 2006 

via extrapolation of the 1999-2004 national OWB trend. In particular, Pechan fit an exponential 

equation to the 1994-2004 data, and used the equation to estimate 2005 and 2006 OWB counts. 

Next, Pechan reviewed AEO 2007 projections of residential natural gas prices for the East North 

Central region (which includes 5 of the 6 LADCO region States) to identify whether recent 

increases are expected to continue. The AEO 2007 projects the average 2007 price for residential 
PECHAN September 2007 

 13 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

natural gas in the East North Central region to be 4 percent lower than in 2006, and forecasts 

continued price decreases through the 2008-2018 period (see table below). 

Year 

Residential Natural Gas 

Price ($/million Btu) 

% Change 

from 2006 

2006 12.08 

2007 10.92 -4.1 

2008 10.80 -5.1 

2009 10.28 -9.7 

2010 10.02 -11.9 

2011 9.61 -15.5 

2012 9.48 -16.9 

2013 9.28 -18.4 

2014 9.32 -18.1 

2015 9.27 -18.6 

2016 9.37 -17.7 

2017 9.60 -15.7 

2018 9.56 -20.8 

Given the projected modest price decreases thru 2008, and the fact that distillate oil prices are 

forecast to increase 6.1 percent between 2006 and 2008, and because one expects a time lag in 

responding to energy price changes, Pechan assumes that OWB sales will continue to increase at 

a significant rate through 2008. Pechan specifically fit a linear trend line to the 1999-2004 

OWB, and projected OWBs in 2007 and 2008 by extending the trend through 2008, and applying 

each year’s growth rate to the estimated count of OWBs in 2006. 

By 2009, Pechan projects that the larger projected declines in natural gas prices, and forecasted 

decreases in other heating fuel prices, will significantly restrain OWB growth. In addition, 

because of neighborhood smoke nuisance concerns, and the need for ready access to inexpensive 

wood, it is expected that the market for OWBs will be generally constrained to heavily-wooded 

rural areas. Therefore, Pechan forecasts post-2008 year OWB growth to more closely trend with 

population growth in these areas. To approximate this growth, Pechan compiled 1990 and 2000 

total and rural area population data for the LADCO region. These data indicate that rural area 

population grew at approximately 60 percent of the rate of total population over this period. 

Pechan estimated rural area population growth for the LADCO region by multiplying this 

adjustment factor by the forecasted growth rate for total population in the LADCO region. The 

following table displays the projected count of OWBs in the LADCO region for 2005, 2009, 

2002, and 2018. 

Year Estimated # of OWBs 

2005 81,082 

2009 144,356 

2012 145,911 

2018 149,421 
PECHAN September 2007 

 14 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

It is important to note that it is particularly challenging to forecast OWB activity given the 

extremely high OWB sales growth rates that have occurred in recent years. LADCO will want to 

closely monitor activity and emission trends for this category given its relative importance in the 

emissions inventory, recent historical growth rates, and additional unique characteristics.

Finally, Pechan reviewed the complete list of area/MAR source categories in the LADCO base 

year inventory to identify the priority category growth indicators that could be applied to nonpriority area/MAR categories. This step yielded priority category growth indicator assignments 

for an additional 26 area/MAR categories. 

C. NON-EGU POINT SOURCES 

Table II-3 displays the priority point source categories, including the description and emissions 

activity associated with each category. The last column in this table identifies each category’s 

growth indicator assignment under the previous growth and control factor contract. Table II-4 

presents the assigned growth indicator for each priority point source category and identifies any 

alternative growth indicators that were considered. Pechan first considered the use of historical 

throughput data from LADCO state point source inventories to identify recent trends that 

provided sufficient support for extrapolation. As mentioned above, for energy consumption 

sectors, Pechan compared regional historical (1990-2004) energy consumption data to AEO 2007

forecast data to determine if the forecast growth rates appear suspect relative to historical trends. 

In selecting from alternative growth indicator data sources, the general decision-making 

hierarchy was as follows, listed in order of preference: 

(1) If throughput data were available for states representing a majority of emissions for a 

given category, and these data indicated a consistent trend, the historical throughput trend 

was extended thru 2009, and held constant thereafter (two reasons for not extending the 

trend throughput the entire forecast period are that throughput data are only available for 

a three or a six-year period, and in some cases the historical throughput decrease was so 

large that it would eventually result in no activity); 

(2) If the forecast and historical trends were in the same direction, Pechan relied on the 

forecast data (an exception was made, however, if the forecast data were only available 

on a national-level, but the historical data were available for the LADCO region); and 

If the forecast and historical trends were in different directions (e.g., forecast trend is for an 

increase in activity, but historical trend was a decrease), Pechan applied a no growth assumption. 
 PECHAN 

 15 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-3. Priority Emission Activity Point Source Categories 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CUR

NH3 10200601 Industrial Natural Gas > 100 Million Btu/hr Volume of natural gas burned in 

industrial pt source boilers of >100 MMBtu 

No generg

NH3 30102599 Chemical 

Manufacturing 

Cellulosic Fiber Production Other Not Classified Amount of cellulosic fiber produced Avg o

Plast

NH3 10200602 Industrial Natural Gas 10-100 Million Btu/hr Volume of natural gas burned in 

industrial pt source boilers of 10-100 MMBtu 

No g

NH3 30199999 Chemical 

Manufacturing 

Other Not Classified Specify in Comments Field Amount of (unknown) chemical 

products produced 

Avg oChem

NH3 10200204 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Spreader Stoker Amount of bituminous coal burned in 

spreader stoker industrial pt source boilers 

AEO 

NOX 20200202 Industrial Natural Gas Reciprocating Volume of natural gas burned in 

industrial pt source reciprocating engines 

No g

NOX 30500606 Mineral Products Cement Manufacturing (Dry 

Process) 

Kilns Amount of cement produced via dry 

process 

LADCgrow

NOX 30600201 Petroleum 

Industry 

Catalytic Cracking Units Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit Amount of fresh feed processed via 

fluid catalytic cracking units (FCCU) 

AEO (natio

NOX 30600104 Petroleum 

Industry 

Process Heaters Gas-fired Volume of gas burned in petroleum 

industry pt source process heaters 

AEO 

NOX 10200202 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Pulverized Coal: Dry Bottom Amount of bituminous coal burned in 

dry bottom industrial pt source boilers 

AEO 

NOX 10200601 Industrial Natural Gas > 100 Million Btu/hr Volume of natural gas burned in 

industrial pt source boilers of >100 MMBtu 

No g

NOX 30300304 Primary Metal 

Production 

By-product Coke Manufacturing 

Quenching Amount of coal charged to 

manufacture coke 

REMSteel 

NOX 10200217 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion: Bubbling Bed (Bituminous 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in bubbling bed industrial pt source boilers 

AEO 

NOX 10200707 Industrial Process Gas Coke Oven Gas Volume of process gas burned in coke 

ovens 

AEO proje

NOX 10200602 Industrial Natural Gas 10-100 Million Btu/hr Volume of natural gas burned in 

industrial pt source boilers of 10-100 MMBtu 

No g
 PECHAN 

 16 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-3 (continued) 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CURREN

NOX 20200254 Industrial Natural Gas 4-cycle Lean Burn Volume of natural gas burned 

in industrial sector 4-cycle lean burn IC engines 

No grow

NOX 20100102 Electric Generation Distillate Oil (Diesel) Reciprocating Amount of distillate oil burned 

in reciprocating engines for electricity 

AEO Ele

NOX 20200201 Industrial Natural Gas Turbine Volume of natural gas burned 

in industrial sector turbines 

No grow

NOX 39000689 In-process Fuel Use Natural Gas General Volume of industrial process 

pt source natural gas burned 

No grow

NOX 10200201 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Pulverized Coal: Wet Bottom 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in wet bottom industrial pt source boilers 

AEO Ind

NOX 10200701 Industrial Process Gas Petroleum Refinery Gas Volume of petroleum refinery 

(still) gas burned 

No grow

ROG 30100399 Chemical Manufacturing Ammonia Production Other Not Classified Amount of ammonia produced REMI ouROG 30201916 Food and Agriculture Vegetable Oil Processing Oil Extraction Amount of extractor feed cake 

produced 

REMI ouand Oils 

ROG 40500511 Printing/Publishing General Gravure: 2754 Amount of solvent in ink used 

by pt sources 

REMI ouBusiness 

ROG 30199999 Chemical Manufacturing Other Not Classified Specify in Comments 

Field 

Amount of (unknown) chemical products produced 

Avg of RChemica

ROG 30125099 Chemical Manufacturing Methanol/Alcohol 

Production 

Other Not Classified Amount of methanol/alcohol 

produced 

REMI ou

ROG 40201301 Surface Coating 

Operations 

Paper Coating Coating Operation Amount of solvent in coating 

used by pt sources 

No growemission

ROG 40200101 Surface Coating 

Operations 

Surface Coating Application - General 

Paint: Solvent-base Amount of coating mix applied 

by pt sources 

No growemission

ROG 30102599 Chemical Manufacturing Cellulosic Fiber Production Other Not Classified Amount of cellulosic fiber 

produced 

Avg of RPlastics, 

ROG 30500201 Mineral Products Asphalt Concrete Rotary Dryer: 

Conventional Plant (see 3-05-002-50 to -53 for 

Amount of hot mix asphalt produced by pt sources 

Avg of RMisc. Pe

ROG 30201906 Food and Agriculture Vegetable Oil Processing Corn Oil: General Amount of extractor feed cake 

produced 

REMI ouand Oils 

ROG 30201919 Food and Agriculture Vegetable Oil Processing Fugitive Leaks Amount of extractor feed cake 

produced 

REMI ouand Oils 

ROG 40200110 Surface Coating 

Operations 

Surface Coating Application - General 

Paint: Solvent-base Amount of solvent-based 

coatings applied by pt sources 

Historica

ROG 40201899 Surface Coating 

Operations 

Metal Coil Coating Other Not Classified Amount of solvent in coating 

used by pt sources 

REMI ouDrawing 

ROG 40388801 Petroleum Product 

Storage at Refineries 

Fugitive Emissions Specify in Comments 

Field 

Petroleum product storage capacity at refineries 

AEO Ref(national

ROG 40200701 Surface Coating 

Operations 

Surface Coating Application - General 

Adhesive Application Amount of adhesive coatings 

applied by pt sources 

REMI ou
 PECHAN 

 17 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-3 (continued) 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CURREN

SO2 30600201 Petroleum Industry Catalytic Cracking Units Fluid Catalytic Cracking 

Unit 

Amount of fresh feed processed via FCCU 

AEO Ref(national

SO2 10200202 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Pulverized Coal: Dry Bottom 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in dry bottom industrial pt source boilers 

AEO Ind

SO2 30600805 Petroleum Industry Fugitive Emissions Miscellaneous: 

Sampling/Non-Asphalt Blowing/Purging/etc. 

Barrels of refinery feed processed 

AEO Ref(national

SO2 30199999 Chemical Manufacturing Other Not Classified Specify in Comments 

Field 

Amount of (unknown) chemical products produced 

Avg of RChemica

SO2 10200217 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion: Bubbling Bed (Bituminous 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in bubbling bed industrial pt source boilers 

AEO Ind

SO2 10200201 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Pulverized Coal: Wet Bottom 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in wet bottom industrial pt source boilers 

AEO Ind

SO2 10200225 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Traveling Grate (Overfeed) Stoker (Subbituminous Coal) 

Amount of subbituminous coal burned in overfeed stoker industrial pt source boilers 

AEO Ind

SO2 30500606 Mineral Products Cement Manufacturing (Dry 

Process) 

Kilns Amount of cement produced 

via dry process 

LADCO growth 

SO2 30600401 Petroleum Industry Blowdown Systems Blowdown System with 

Vapor Recovery System with Flaring 

Barrels of refinery feed processed 

AEO Ref(national

SO2 10200204 Industrial Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Spreader Stoker Amount of bituminous coal 

burned in spreader stoker industrial pt source boilers 

AEO Ind

SO2 10300217 Commercial/Institutional Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion: Bubbling Bed (Bitumin.) 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in bubbling bed commercial pt source boilers 

AEO Co

SO2 39000701 In-process Fuel Use Process Gas Coke Oven or Blast 

Furnace 

Volume of coke oven or blast furnace gas burned 

AEO Meprojectio

SO2 30103201 Chemical Manufacturing Elemental Sulfur Production Mod. Claus: 2 Stage w/o 

Control (92-95% Removal) 

Amount of 100% sulfur produced 

REMI ou

SO2 10300225 Commercial/Institutional Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Traveling Grate (Overfeed) Stoker (Subbituminous Coal) 

Amount of subbituminous coal burned in overfeed stoker commercial pt source boilers 

AEO Co

SO2 10300209 Commercial/Institutional Bituminous/Subbituminous 

Coal 

Spreader Stoker (Bituminous Coal) 

Amount of bituminous coal burned in spreader stoker commercial pt source boilers 

AEO Co

SO2 10200401 Industrial Residual Oil Grade 6 Oil Amount of residual oil (No. 6) 

burned in industrial pt source boilers 

No grow
 PECHAN 

 18 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-3 (continued) 

POLLUTANT SCC DESC2 DESC3 DESC4 EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CURREN

EMISSION TREND ANALYSIS CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE WITH CONSISTENT THROUGHPUT TRENDS 

VOC 40202201 Petroleum and Solvent 

Evaporation 

Surface Coating Operations Plastic Parts: Coating 

Operation 

Amount of solvent used in coating applied 

Historica

NOX 39000699 In Process Fuel Use Natural Gas General Amount of nat gas used in 

industrial processes 

No grow
 PECHAN 

 19 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-4. Growth Indicators for Priority Point Source Categories 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

Emissions 

Priority 

Category 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered 

NH3 10200601 NOx -11.5 -11.5 Historic throughput trend from 3 states (-3.0% per 

year) extended thru 2009; post-2009 held constant. 

DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per year; AEforecast = +1.4% per year 

NH3 30102599 4.9 18.2 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for 

Plastics, Materials, & Synthetics sector 

 

NH3 10200602 NOx -12.2 -12.2 Historic throughput trend from 4 states (-3.2% per 

year) extended thru 2009; post-2009 held constant. 

DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per year; AEforecast = +1.4% per year 

NH3 30199999 8.9 25.6 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for 

Chemicals sector 

 

NH3 10200204 NOx 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% per year; AE

forecast = <-0.1% per year 

NOX 20200202 NOx 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast 

trends 

DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per year; AEforecast = +1.4% per year 

NOX 30500606 8.2 29.4 LADCO region historical cement production growth 

rate (+2.0% per year) 

NOX 30600201 SO2 0.4 0.4 AEO refinery distillation projections for Petroleum 

Administration District (PAD) II, which includes all LADCO states plus additional surrounding states 

Similar 1990-2005 data also includes states not in LADCO region and shows very small growth rate 

NOX 30600104 5.9 20.6 1991-2002 Midwest Census region Refining sector 

natural gas consumption growth rate (+1.5% per year) 

AEO National Refining sector natural gconsumption forecast is +2.7% per yea

NOX 10200202 NOx 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% per year; AE

forecast = <-0.1% per year 

NOX 10200601 NOx -11.5 -11.5 Historic throughput trend from 3 states (-3.0% per 

year) extended thru 2009; post-2009 held constant. 

DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per year; AEforecast = +1.4% per year 

NOX 30300304 -6.2 -19.8 AEO forecast for metallurgical coal consumption DOE 1990-2004 = -3.0% per year; AE

forecast = -1.7% per year 

NOX 10200217 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% per year; AE

forecast = <-0.1% per year 

NOX 10200707 -6.2 -19.8 AEO forecast for metallurgical coal consumption DOE 1990-2004 = -3.0% per year; AE

forecast = -1.7% per year 

NOX 10200602 NOx -12.2 -12.2 Historic throughput trend from 4 states (-3.2% per 

year) extended thru 2009; post-2009 held constant. 

DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per year; AEforecast = +1.4% per year 

NOX 20200254 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast 

trends 

DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% per year; AEforecast = +1.4% per year 
 PECHAN 

 20 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-4 (continued) 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

Emissions 

Priority 

Category 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered 

NOX 20100102 1.7 5.5 DOE 1990-2004 historic trend (+0.4%) AEO forecast = +5.0% per 

2009, but near equivalent from 2009 to 2018 

NOX 20200201 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% 

AEO forecast = +1.4% per 

NOX 39000689 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -0.01% 

AEO forecast = +1.4% per 

NOX 10200201 SO2 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% p

AEO forecast = <-0.1% pe

NOX 10200701 -1.3 -4.1 DOE 1990-2004 historic trend (-0.3% per year) AEO forecast = 2009 (-1.0

year) and 2018 (-0.1% per 

ROG 30100399 -19.7 -28.6 Freedonia's "Chemical Catalysts to 2009-Ammonia Catalyst 

Demand" - national projections adjusted for relative state growth in 

REMI output for Agricultural Chemicals sector 

 

ROG 30201916 2.2 11.9 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for Grain Mill 

Products and Fats and Oils sector 

 

ROG 40500511 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic trend versus forecast trend 

in regional employment for "Printing Machine Operators" 

ROG 30199999 8.9 25.6 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for Chemicals 

sector 

 

ROG 30125099 1.1 5.3 Freedonia's "Chemical Catalysts to 2009-Alcohols Catalyst Demand 

by Application" - national projections adjusted for relative state growth in REMI output for Industrial Chemicals sector 

 

ROG 40201301 0 0 No growth based on consistent historic LADCO emissions trend ROG 40200101 VOC -6.4 -21.4 Regional employment projections for "Coating, Painting, and 

Spraying Machine Operators, and Tenders" adjusted for solvent content of paints and coatings from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Paints and Coatings Market for Solvents" (-1.9% per year) 

 
 PECHAN 

 21 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-4 (continued) 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

Emissions 

Priority 

Category 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered 

ROG 30102599 4.9 18.2 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for Plastics, 

Materials, & Synthetics sector 

 

ROG 30500201 8.3 21.5 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for Misc. 

Petroleum and Coal Products sector 

 

ROG 30201906 2.2 11.9 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for Grain Mill 

Products and Fats and Oils sector 

 

ROG 30201919 2.2 11.9 Avg of REMI employment & output growth factors for Grain Mill 

Products and Fats and Oils sector 

 

ROG 40200110 VOC -6.4 -21.4 Regional employment projections for "Coating, Painting, and 

Spraying Machine Operators, and Tenders" adjusted for solvent content of paints and coatings from Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Paints and Coatings Market for Solvents" (-1.9% per year) 

 

ROG 40201899 6.9 26.0 Freedonia's "Protective Coatings to 2009-Demand for Coil 

Coatings" - national projections adjusted for relative state growth in 

REMI output for Nonferrous Rolling and Drawing sector, adjusted for projected solvent content information for paints and coatings from "Solvents to 2010-Paints/Coatings Market for Solvents" (-1.9% 

per year) 

 

ROG 40388801 0.4 0.4 AEO refinery distillation projections for Petroleum Administration 

District (PAD) II, which includes all LADCO states plus additional surrounding states 

1990-2005 data also inclunot in LADCO region and similar very small growth r

ROG 40200701 -1.6 -1.0 Freedonia's "Solvents to 2010-Adhesives & Sealants Market for 

Solvents" national projections, adjusted for relative state growth in REMI output in Total Manufacturing sector 

SO2 30600201 SO2 0.4 0.4 AEO refinery distillation projections for Petroleum Administration 

District (PAD) II, which includes all LADCO states plus additional 

surrounding states 

1990-2005 data also inclunot in LADCO region and similar very small growth r

SO2 10200202 NOx 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% p

AEO forecast = <-0.1% pe

SO2 30600805 SO2 0.4 0.4 AEO refinery distillation projections for Petroleum Administration 

District (PAD) II, which includes all LADCO states plus additional 

surrounding states 

1990-2005 data also inclunot in LADCO region and similar very small growth r

SO2 30199999 8.9 25.6 Avg of REMI employment & output GFs for Chemicals sector SO2 10200217 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% p

AEO forecast = <-0.1% pe

SO2 10200201 SO2 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% p

AEO forecast = <-0.1% pe

SO2 10200225 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% p

AEO forecast = <-0.1% pe

SO2 30500606 8.2 29.4 LADCO region historical cement production growth rate (+2.0% per 

year) 
 PECHAN 

 22 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-4 (continued) 

Total % Change 

Pollutant SCC 

Emissions 

Priority 

Category 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered 

SO2 30600401 0.4 0.4 AEO refinery distillation projections for Petroleum Administration 

District (PAD) II, which includes all LADCO states plus additional 

surrounding states 

1990-2005 data also inclunot in LADCO region and similar very small growth r

SO2 10200204 NOx 2.9 -0.6 AEO forecast for other industrial coal combustion DOE 1990-2004 = -1.5% p

AEO forecast = <-0.1% pe

SO2 10300217 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -1.2% p

AEO forecast = +0.0% per 

SO2 39000701 -6.2 -19.8 AEO forecast for metallurgical coal consumption DOE 1990-2004 = -3.0% p

AEO forecast = -1.7% per 

SO2 30103201 2.5 8.2 1996-2005 recovered elemental sulfur production growth rate 

(+0.6% per year) for IL + MI + MN + OH 

SO2 10300225 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -1.2% p

AEO forecast = +0.0% per 

SO2 10300209 0.0 0.0 No growth due to contradictory historic and forecast trends DOE 1990-2004 = -1.2% p

AEO forecast = +0.0% per 

SO2 10200401 SO2 -49.4 -49.6 AEO forecast for industrial residual oil consumption (-5.1% per 

year) 

DOE 1990-2004 = -6.6% p

NON-PRIORITY CATEGORIES INCLUDED IN EMISSION TREND ANALYSIS WITH CONSISTENT THROUGHPUT TRENDS: 

VOC 40202201 VOC -33.5 -33.5 Historic throughput trend from 3 states (-9.7%) extended thru 2009; 

post-2009 held constant. 

NOX 39000699 NOx -15.8 -15.8 Historic throughput trend from 3 states (-4.2%) extended thru 2009; 

post-2009 held constant. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 23 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-4 also presents the 2005-2009 and 2005-2018 growth rates for the final assigned point 

source growth indicators. In addition, Pechan reviewed the complete list of point SCCs in the 

LADCO base year inventory to identify the priority category growth indicators that could be 

applied to non-priority point source categories. This step yielded priority category growth 

indicator assignments for an additional 539 point source categories. 

D. NONROAD MODEL SOURCES 

At LADCO’s request, Pechan analyzed potential improvements to the default growth indicators 

for the 25 NONROAD model priority source categories displayed in Table II-5. With the 

exception of the all-terrain vehicle, offroad motorcycle, and snowmobile categories, 1989-1996 

national equipment population trends form the basis for the NONROAD growth rates. For these 

other three categories, NONROAD relies on national equipment population forecasts prepared 

by a relevant trade association (see Table II-5 for details). 

Table II-6 reports this study’s growth indicator assignments for priority NONROAD model 

source categories. Given the acknowledged shortcomings of the NONROAD growth rates (use 

of 1989-1996 national equipment populations to project future equipment populations in each 

region of the country), the growth factor improvements generally reflect the use of regional/statelevel forecast data that are expected to correlate with use of the equipment (i.e., regional 

occupational employment projections, state-level economic sector employment forecasts, or 

state-level landing/take-off projections). Table II-6 also displays any alternative growth 

indicators that were considered. For the three categories for which NONROAD relies on 

forecasts rather than historical 1989-1996 trends, Pechan compiled available recent historical 

equipment population estimates. This information was used to revise the current national 

forecast approach to reflect more recent information, and whenever possible, recent LADCO 

region-specific equipment population trends. 

Although the NONROAD model growth rates are fuel-specific, Pechan was unable to develop 

fuel-specific forecast data. Therefore, Pechan updated a priority category’s growth rates only 

when the 1989-1996 national equipment populations indicated that the category’s fuel-specific 

growth rate had traditionally been similar to the overall sector’s equipment population growth 

rate. Table II-6 identifies instances where the past fuel-specific growth rate substantially differed 

from the overall sector’s growth rate. In these cases, Pechan retained the NONROAD model 

fuel-specific forecast approach. Section IV.A. describes how Pechan incorporated the updated 

equipment population growth rates into the NONROAD model 
 PECHAN 

 24 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-5. Priority Emission Activity NONROAD Model Source Categories 

SCC DESCRIPTION SUMMARY EMISSIONS ACTIVITY CURRENT GROWTH BASIS 

2260001030 2-Stroke ATV Population of 2-stroke gasoline ATVs NONROAD (Motorcycle Industry Council national 2-stro2265001030 4-Stroke ATV Population of 4-stroke gasoline ATVs NONROAD (Motorcycle Industry Council national 4-stro2260001010 2-Stroke Offroad Motorcycles Population of 2-stroke gasoline offroad motorcycles NONROAD (Motorcycle Industry Council national off-hi

projections) 

2265001010 4-Stroke Offroad Motorcycles Population of 4-stroke gasoline offroad motorcycles NONROAD (Motorcycle Industry Council national off-hi

projections) 

2267006000 LPG Light Commercial Population of light commercial LPG-fueled 

equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 LPG light commercial 

2270004000 Diesel Lawn & Garden 

Equipment 

Population of lawn & garden diesel-fueled equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel lawn & garden e

2270008000 Diesel Airport Service 

Equipment 

Population of airport service diesel-fueled equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel airport service e

2267008000 LPG Airport Service Equipment Population of airport service LPG-fueled equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 total airport service eq2268008000 CNG Airport Service Equipment Population of airport service CNG-fueled equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 total airport service eq2260001020 2-Stroke Snowmobiles Population of 2-stroke gasoline snowmobiles NONROAD national growth (see below) with state adju

income forecasts 

2265001020 4-Stroke Snowmobiles Population of 4-stroke gasoline snowmobiles NONROAD (International Snowmobile Manufacturers A

population projections) 

2260007000 2-Stroke Logging Equipment Population of logging 2-stroke gasoline equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 gasoline logging equip2265007000 4-Stroke Logging Equipment Population of logging 4-stroke gasoline equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 gasoline logging equip2270006000 Diesel Light Commercial Population of light commercial diesel-fueled 

equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel light commercia

2268006000 CNG Light Commercial Population of light commercial CNG-fueled 

equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 CNG light commercial 

2267007000 LPG Logging Equipment Population of logging LPG-fueled equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 logging equipment pop2268007000 CNG Logging Equipment Population of logging CNG-fueled equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 logging equipment pop2285002000 Diesel Railway Maintenance Population of railway maintenance diesel-fueled 

equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel railway maintenrate) 

2260006000 2-Stroke Light Commercial Population of light commercial 2-stroke gasoline 

equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 gasoline light commer

2265006000 4-Stroke Light Commercial Population of light commercial 4-stroke gasoline 

equipment 

NONROAD (national 1989-1996 gasoline light commer

2270002000 Diesel Construction Equipment Population of construction diesel-fueled equipment NONROAD national growth with state adjustment base

forecasts 

2270003000 Diesel Industrial Equipment Population of industrial diesel-fueled equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel industrial equip2267003000 LPG Industrial Equipment Population of industrial LPG-fueled equipment NONROAD (national 1989-1996 LPG industrial equipm2270001000 Diesel Recreational Vehicles Population of diesel recreational vehicles NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel recreational equ2282020000 Diesel Recreational Marine Population of diesel recreational marine vessels NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel recreational equ
 PECHAN 

 25 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-6. Growth Indicators for Priority NONROAD Model Source Categories 

Total % Change 

SCC 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered C

2260001030 10.8 39.7 50% higher growth rate than overall LADCO region 

"Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians" employment projections, which is 1.7%/yr, based on premise that ATV market is less mature than market for other recreation vehicles 

Available ATV/OHV registration data for MI+MN+WI indicate avg. annual growth of 14.6% between 2000 and 2005; however, 2006 data for each state is only +1 or +1.1%; NONROAD shows 2005-2006 = +10.5%. National ATV sales (not population) of +3.8% per year for 2000-2005; 2005-2006 sales = -4.2% 

Dabpu2

2265001030 10.8 39.7 50% higher growth rate than overall LADCO region 

"Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians" employment projections, which is 1.7%/yr, based on premise that ATV market is less mature than market for other recreation vehicles 

Available ATV/OHV registration data for MI+MN+WI indicate avg. annual growth of 14.6% between 2000 and 2005; however, 2006 data for each state is only +1 or +1.1%; NONROAD shows 2005-2006 = +10.5%. National ATV sales (not population) of +3.8% per year for 2000-2005; 2005-2006 sales = -4.2% 

Dabpu2

2260001010 5.1 17.7 LADCO region employment projections for "Motorcycle 

Mechanics" 

Unable to compile regional registration trends; national offroad motorcycle sales for 2000-2006 = +2.3%, but 2001-2006 = -1.6% 

Err

2265001010 5.1 17.7 LADCO region employment projections for "Motorcycle 

Mechanics" 

Unable to compile regional registration trends; national offroad motorcycle sales for 2000-2006 = +2.3%, but 2001-2006 = -1.6% 

Err

2267006000 19.8 57.5 NONROAD (national 1989-1996 LPG light commercial 

equipment population growth rate) 

REMI Commercial sector employment forecast for LADCO region (2005-2009=+1.8%yr; 2005-2018 = +1.1%/yr) 

Dhdo

2270004000 5.8 20.1 LADCO region employment projections for "Landscaping 

and Groundskeeping Workers" 

2270008000 -0.7 18.0 State-level FAA itinerant air carrier + air taxi landing and 

take-off (LTO) forecast (updated as of December 2006) 

2267008000 -0.7 18.0 State-level FAA itinerant air carrier + air taxi landing and 

take-off (LTO) forecast (updated as of December 2006) 

2268008000 -0.7 18.0 State-level FAA itinerant air carrier + air taxi landing and 

take-off (LTO) forecast (updated as of December 2006) 

2260001020 3.5 11.9 50% lower growth rate than overall LADCO region 

"Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians" employment projections, which is 1.7%/yr, based on premise that snowmobile market is more mature than market for other recreation vehicles 

Annual growth in snowmobile registrations for states representing 92% of 2006 LADCO region registrations: 2000-2006 = +0.0% 

Nbms

2265001020 3.5 11.9 50% lower growth rate than overall LADCO region 

"Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians" employment projections, which is 1.7%/yr, based on premise that snowmobile market is more mature than market for other recreation vehicles 

Annual growth in snowmobile registrations for states representing 92% of 2006 LADCO region registrations: 2000-2006 = +0.0% 

Nbms
 PECHAN 

 26 Development of 2005 Base Year 

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table II-6 (continued) 

Total % Change

SCC 

2005-

2009 

2005-

2018 Growth Indicator Basis Alternatives Considered 

2260007000 2.2 7.3 2265007000 2.2 7.3 LADCO region employment projections for "Logging 

Equipment Operators" 

2270006000 7.2 15.0 REMI Commercial sector employment forecast for 

LADCO region 

2268006000 7.2 15.0 REMI Commercial sector employment forecast for 

LADCO region 

2267007000 2.2 7.3 LADCO region employment projections for "Logging 

Equipment Operators" 

2268007000 2.2 7.3 LADCO region employment projections for "Logging 

Equipment Operators" 

2285002000 12.2 36.7 NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel railway 

maintenance equipment population growth rate) 

LADCO region employment projections for "Rail-Track Laying & Maintenance Equipment Operators" (-1.6%/yr) 

2260006000 7.2 15.0 REMI Commercial sector employment forecast for 

LADCO region 

2265006000 7.2 15.0 REMI Commercial sector employment forecast for 

LADCO region 

2270002000 4.7 16.2 LADCO region employment projections for "Operating 

Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators" 

2270003000 0.1 0.2 LADCO region employment projections for "Industrial 

Machinery Mechanics" 

2267003000 0.1 0.2 LADCO region employment projections for "Industrial 

Machinery Mechanics" 

2270001000 10.4 31.5 NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel recreational 

equipment population growth rate) 

LADCO region employment projections for "Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians" (+1.7%/yr) 

2282020000 10.4 31.5 NONROAD (national 1989-1996 diesel recreational 

equipment population growth rate) 

Two options: 1996-2005 LADCO region recreational boat registration growth rate (0.8%/yr) and LADCO region employment projections (+1.5%/yr) for "Motorboat Mechanics" 
PECHAN September 2007 

 27 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

SECTION III. UPDATED EMISSION CONTROL DATA 

A. NON-EGU POINT SOURCE CONTROLS 

1. NOx SIP Call 

All states in the LADCO region affected by the NOx (oxides of nitrogen) SIP (State 

Implementation Plan) Call requirements (OH, IN, IL, MI) indicated that their sources were 

complying in 2005. The only exception to this is for reciprocating internal combustion engines 

(RICE) in Illinois. The State of Illinois recommended that an 82 percent NOx control efficiency 

be applied to large RICE engines that are affected by the SIP Call. The RICE engine 

requirement in Illinois has a January 1, 2008 compliance date. Table III-1 lists these engines and 

the associated NOx control efficiencies applied in the emission projections. This requirement is 

expected to affect NOx emissions in all projection years. 

2. MACT Standards 

Table III-2 summarizes the control factors used to estimate the post-2005 effects of MACT 

emission standards on volatile organic compounds (VOC), NOx, and PM emissions in the 

projection years. The information in this table was developed from EPA guidance on 

estimating the criteria pollutant emission benefits of MACT standards (Page, 2007). Any post2005 MACT standards that have no expected criteria pollutant emission reductions according 

to the draft EPA guidance were not included in Table III-2. Table III-2 was circulated to the 

states for review, and Wisconsin provided its own estimates of the expected VOC and PM 

emission reductions from these MACT standards in its state. The State of Michigan concurred 

with the emission reduction estimates made by Wisconsin. Those VOC and PM emission 

reduction percentages are shown in the two right-most columns of Table III-2. So, the control 

factor file reflects the EPA estimated values for IL, IN, MN, and OH, and the Wisconsinprovided estimates for MI and WI. 

3. Consent Decrees 

Previous Pechan-developed control efficiencies by source (Pechan, 2005) and pollutant were 

merged with the LADCO state 2005 point source file and control factors assigned accordingly. 

The 2005 point source control efficiencies (CEs) for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and NOx for fluid 

catalytic cracking units (FCCUs) and heaters and boilers were checked to see whether there is 

any compliance by 2005. Pechan also added all MACTEC revisions/additions from their earlier 

report to the control factor file (MACTEC incorporated cases and settlements control factors for 

refineries that were not evaluated for the 812 study) and made any changes/additions that were 

provided by the state air pollution control agencies. Table III-3 lists all of the LADCO state 

Non-EGU Point Sources affected by consent decrees. These sources all have post-2005 control 

factors applied in the analysis. There are two refineries in the study area who had either 

complied with their consent decrees or curtailed applicable operations by 2005, so no future year 

control factors were applied in this analysis. These two refineries are Premcor Refining in IL 

and the Flint Hills Refinery in MN. 
PECHAN 

2007  28 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-1. RICE Engines in Illinois Affected by NOx SIP Call 

Id Number Device Process Device Description Pollutant

% 

Reduction 

027807AAC 0003 01 ENGINES 09-ENG AND 10-ENG NOX 59 041804AAC 0009 01 ENGINE 1213 NOX 82 041804AAC 0010 01 ENGINE 1214 NOX 82 041804AAC 0011 01 ENGINE 1215 NOX 82 041804AAC 0012 01 ENGINE 1216 NOX 82 041804AAC 0013 01 ENGINE 1217 NOX 82 

073816AAA 0001 01 WORTHINGTON MLV-10 COMPRESSOR & GAS FIRED ENGINE #12 NOX 82 073816AAA 0004 01 CLARK TCV-10 COMPRESSOR & GAS FIRED ENGINE ENGINE #9 NOX 82 073816AAA 0012 01 WORTHINGTON MLV-10 COMPRESSOR AND GAS FIRED ENGINE NO. 13 NOX 82 073816AAA 0013 01 WORTHINGTON MLV-10 COMPRESSOR AND GAS FIRED ENGINE NO. 14 NOX 82 073816AAA 0014 01 WORTHINGTON MLV-10 COMPRESSOR AND GAS FIRED ENGINE NO. 15 NOX 82 073816AAA 0015 01 WORTHINGTON MLV-14 ENGINE #10 NOX 82 085809AAA 0010 01 3 CLARK COMPRESSORS NOX 82 

093802AAF 0003 01 ENGINE E-1008 NOX 82 

113817AAA 0002 01 ENGINE EC21 NOX 82 113817AAA 0003 01 ENGINE IC11 NOX 82 113821AAA 0002 01 ENTERPRISE RECIP COMP EC-21 4000 MP EF 3.3.2-1 NOX 82 113821AAA 0005 01 COOPER COMPRESSOR CC22 EF 3.3.2-1 4000 HP NOX 82 149820AAB 0002 01 2 RECIPROCATING ENGINES (1013 - 1014) NOX 59 149820AAB 0003 01 3 RECIPROCATING ENGINES (1015 - 1017) NOX 82 167801AAA 0001 01 ENGINES 1116 AND 1117 NOX 82 167801AAA 0003 01 1-COOPER RECIPROCATING ENGINE, 4000HP, 1115 NOX 82 167801AAA 0008 01 ENGINES 1118 AND 1119 NOX 59 
PECHAN 

2007  29 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-2. Post-2005 MACT Standards and Expected VOC, NOx, and PM Reduct

MACT Standard – Source Category

Code of Federal 

Regulations 

Subpart

Compliance 

Date (existing 

sources)

VOC 

(% Reduction)

NOx

(% Reduction)

Total PM 

(% Reduction) Affected SCCs

M

C

Asphalt Processing and Asphalt Roofing 

Manufacture

LLLLL 5/1/2006 85 30505001, 30500101, 

30500102, 30505010, 

30601101

0

Auto and Light Duty Trucks IIII 4/26/2007 40 40201601 to 40201632; 

40201699

0

Coke Ovens: Pushing, Quenching and Battery Stacks

CCCCC 4/14/2006 0 30300304; 30300303 0

Fabric Printing, Coating & Dyeing OOOO 5/29/2006 60 40201101 to 40201199; 

40201201; 40201210

0

Integrated Iron and Steel FFFFF 5/20/2006 (5) 20 30301501 to 30301596 0Iron and Steel Foundries EEEEE 4/22/2007 5 304003XX, 304007XX 0Lime Manufacturing AAAAA 1/5/2007 23 305016XX 0Metal Can KKKK 11/13/2006 70 40201702; 40201703 to 

40201799

0

Metal Furniture RRRR 5/23/2006 0 402020XX Misc. Coating Manufacturing HHHHH 12/11/2006 64 402026XX 1Misc. Metal Parts and Products MMMM 1/2/2007 0 402025XX Misc. Organic Chemical Production and Processes (MON)

FFFF 11/10/2006 66 645200XX; 30113001 to 

30113007; 684300XX; 

30101005 to 30101099; 

68445001; 68445010; 68445013; 68445020; 68445022; 68445101; 

68445201; 30110002 to 

30110099; 64820001; 64820010; 64821001; 64821010; 64822001; 64822010; 64823001; 64823010; 64823001; 64823010; 64880001; 64882001; 64882002; 64882599; 30105001; 

30105101 to 30105130; 

30801001; 31604001; 31604002; 31600403; 68510001; 68510010; 68510011; 68580001; 68582001; 68582002; 68582599; 30101837; 

64610301 to 64610350; 64610001 to 64610050; 64610101 to 64610150; 

1
PECHAN 

2007 

Table III-2 (continued) 

 30 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

MACT Standard – Source Category

Code of Federal 

Regulations 

Subpart

Compliance 

Date (existing 

sources)

VOC 

(% Reduction)

NOx

(% Reduction)

Total PM 

(% Reduction) Affected SCCs

M

C

64610201 to 64610250; 64615001 to 64615030; 64620001 to 64620038; 64630001 to 64630083; 64631001 to 64631083; 64632001 to 64632083; 

64680001; 64682001; 64682002; 64682501; 64682502; 64682599; 

64130001 to 64130025; 64130101 to 64130125; 64130201 to 64130225; 64131010 to 64131030; 64132001 to 64132030; 64133001 to 64133030; 

64180001; 64182001; 64182002; 64182599; 64615001; 64620001; 

65135001 

Organic Liquids Distribution EEEE 2/3/2007 70 40300102, 40300104, 

40300106, 40300107, 

40301010-40301021

0

Plastic Parts PPPP 4/19/2007 0 402022XX Plywood and Composite Wood Products

DDDD 10/1/2007 54 307007XX; 30700921 to 

30700971; 30701001 to 30701057; 30700602 to 

30700661

1

Refractory Products Manufacturing SSSSS 4/17/2006 81 0 0Reinforced Plastic Composites Production

WWWW 4/21/2006 39 0 1

Site Remediation GGGGG 10/8/2006 50 0 504001XX; 50400201, 

50400202; 504002XX; 

504100XX; 504101XX; 504102XX; 504103XX; 504102XX; 504103XX; 

04104XX; 504105XX; 

504106XX; 504107XX; 

50480001; 50482001; 50482002; 50482599; 

50480004

0
PECHAN 

Table III-2 (continued) 

 31 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

MACT Standard – Source Category

Code of Federal 

Regulations 

Subpart

Compliance 

Date (existing 

sources)

VOC 

(% Reduction)

NOx

(% Reduction)

Total PM 

(% Reduction) Affected SCCs

M

C

Stationary Combustion Turbines YYYY 3/5/2007 13 17 20100101, 20100201, 

20200101, 20200103, 20200201, 20200203, 20200901, 20300102, 

20300202, 20300203

0

Taconite Iron Ore Processing RRRRR 10/30/2006 0 0 62 32302371 to 32302399 0

Wood Building Products QQQQ 5/28/2006 63 0 40202101 to 40202199 0

**Based on organic hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emission reductions 
PECHAN 

2007  32 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-3. LADCO State Non-EGU Point Sources Affected by Consent Decree Requi

and Other On-the-Books Controls 

Identification Codes FCCU Requirements Heater/Bo

State County Facility* Company Location State SO2 NOx SO2 

18 089 00003 BP Amoco Whiting IN FCU 500: Install wet gas 

scrubber; FCU 600: Use SO2 adsorbing catalyst 

additive and/or hydrotreatment.

FCU 600: Install SCR; FCU 500: Low NOx combustion 

promoter and NOxadsorbing catalyst additive

Elimination of oil burning and restricting H2S in 

refinery fuel gas

39 095 0448010246 BP Amoco Toledo OH SO2 catalyst additive Install SNCR system Elimination of oil burning 

and restricting H2S in 

refinery fuel gas

17 197 197090AAI CITGO Global 

Refinery

Lemont IL New wet gas scrubber Low NOx combustion 

promoter (20 ppmvd limit)

Comply with NSPS Subparts A and J for fuel gas combustion devices. Eliminate fuel oil burning

17 119 119090AAA Conoco Philips 

Global Refinery

Roxanna (Wood River)

IL Install new wet gas 

scrubber (25 ppmvd or lower)

FCCU 1: Scrubberbased NOx emission 

reduction technology to achieve 20 ppmvd

Subject to NSPS Subpar

A and J for fuel gas 

combustion devices

17 119 119090AAA Conoco Philips 

Global Refinery

Hartford (Wood River)

IL Install new wet gas 

scrubber (25 ppmvd or lower)

FCCU 2: Enhanced SNCR

Subject to NSPS Subpar

A and J for fuel gas 

combustion devices

17 197 197800AAA Exxon-Mobil 

Refinery

Joliet IL Install new wet gas 

scrubber (25 ppmvd or lower)

Install and operate an SCR system

Accept NSPS Subpart J 

applicability for heaters and boilers and reduce oeliminate fuel oil firing

17 033 033808AAB Marathon 

Ashland Refinery

Robinson IL Existing wet gas 

scrubber

Catalyst additive Accept NSPS Subpart J 

applicability for heaters and boilers and reduce oeliminate fuel oil firing
PECHAN 

2007 

Table III-3 (continued) 

 33 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Identification Codes FCCU Requirements Heater/Bo

State County Facility* Company Location State SO2 NOx SO2 

26 163 A9831 Marathon 

Ashland Refinery

Detroit MI SO2 catalyst additive Catalyst additive Accept NSPS Subpart J 

applicability for heaters aboilers and reduce or eliminate fuel oil firing 

27 163 2716300003 Marathon 

Ashland Refinery

St Paul Park MN New wet gas scrubber 

on unit 1; catalyst additive on other unit 

Catalyst additive Accept NSPS Subpart J 

applicability for heaters aboilers and reduce or eliminate fuel oil firing 

39 151 1576000301 Marathon 

Ashland Refinery

Canton OH SO2 catalyst additive Catalyst additive Accept NSPS Subpart J 

applicability for heaters aboilers and reduce or eliminate fuel oil firing 

39 095 0448010246 Sunoco 

Petroleum Refinery 

Toledo OH Install new wet gas 

scrubber to meet 25 ppmvd SO2

Install SCR systems or alternate technology to meet 20 ppmvd 

Accept NSPS Subpart J 

applicability and reduce oeliminate fuel oil burning 
PECHAN 

2007 

Table III-3 (continued) 

 34 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Identification Codes 

State County Facility* Company Location State Notes 

17 115 115015AAE ADM Decatur IL Settlement agreement 17 143 143065AJE ADM Peoria IL Settlement agreement 17 001 001815AAF ADM Quincy IL Settlement agreement 18 173 00002 Alcoa Warrick Units 1,2,3 IN Settlement agreement 

*Facility identification codes are those used in the 2002 point source files. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 35 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) provided information about the 

expected emissions reductions associated with settlements affecting Michigan sources. The 

information from Michigan DEQ was provided for Severstal (iron and steel), US Steel, and 

Marathon refinery. For Severstal, the key information provided indicated that NOx emissions 

after the summer 2007 would be reduced at the blast furnace B and C stoves via a low NOx

burner (LNB) installation. A 50 percent NOx control factor was applied with 2007 

implementation year based on information in the Ozone Transport Rulemaking analysis about 

the expected emission reduction of LNB applied to a blast furnace. For US Steel, the Michigan 

DEQ-provided information indicated that PM controls would be installed during 2005 or 2006 

on the basic oxygen furnace and blast furnace B, so it was assumed that these were base year 

controls and no future year control factor was applied. For the Marathon refinery in Michigan, 

the Michigan DEQ estimated that catalyst additives applied to the FCCU would reduce NOx 

emissions by 25-50 percent and SO2 emissions by 60-80 percent. The midpoint of each range 

was used to estimate post-2005 control factors for this refinery. All other expected controls at 

Marathon are to reduce PM emissions and were assumed to have occurred by 2005, so no future 

year PM control factors were applied. 

4. On-the-Books (OTB) Control Additions 

Table III-3 lists on-the-books controls that were applied to individual facilities/sources in the 

future year control factor file. This information was developed from the OTB updated control 

factor file provided by LADCO from the 2002 base year projections. The compliance date 

information in this file was used to eliminate controls that had compliance dates of 2005 or 

earlier. Ohio EPA provided information about the expected effects of NOx Reasonably 

Available Control Technology (RACT) rules in achieving post-2005 emission reductions in the 

Cleveland-Akron, Ohio 8-hour ozone nonattainment area. Table III-4 summarizes the source 

categories, associated emission control equipment to meet the requirements, and the estimated 

NOx control percentages. 

Table III-4. Ohio RACT Rule Summary Cleveland/Akron 8-Hour Ozone 

Nonattainment Area 

Source Category 

Unit Size 

(MMBtu/hour) NOx Control 

Estimated NOx Control 

Efficiency 

RICE Engines All Low Emission Combustion 80% 

ICI Boilers 20-49 Burner Tune-up 10% 

ICI Boilers 50-99 LNB+FGR 61% 

ICI Boilers 100-249 LNB+FGR 61% 

ICI Boilers >250 LNB+FGR 61% 

Combustion Turbine All Dry LNB 70% 

SOURCE: Ohio EPA Division of Air Pollution Control. 

5. Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) 

Table III-5 lists the BART-eligible sources for the states in the LADCO study region. In 

instances where criteria air pollutant control percentages (for SO2 and NOx) are listed in this 

table, those control percentages were applied in estimating 2018 emissions. 
PECHAN 

2007  36 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-5. BART Eligible Non-EGU Sources 

State State ID Source Name County 

County 

ID Source ID BART Emission Unit ID Description Stack 

ILLINOIS 17 Conoco Phillips Madison 11D 119090AAA ILLINOIS 17 Exxon Mobil Will 197 197800AAA ILLINOIS 17 CITGO Will 197 197090AAI ILLINOIS 17 National Steel – 

Granite City 

Madison 119 119813AAI 

INDIANA 18 AGC DIVISIONALCOA POWER 

GENERATING 

 Warrick 173 2 Boiler #2 Dry Bottom, pulverized 

coal-fired boiler 

241-2

 Boiler #3 Dry Bottom pulverized 

coal-fired boiler 

242 

 Boiler #4 Dry Bottom, pulverized 

coal-fired boiler 

243 

INDIANA 18 Alcoa Inc. – Warrick Warrick 173 7 105m.1, 10 POTLINE #3. ROOMS 

105 AND 106 gtc 

105M 

 107M, 108M POTLINE #4. ROOMS 

107 AND 108 GTC 

107M 

 109M,110M POTLINE #5, ROOMS 

109 AND 110, A-398 

109M 

 111M,112M, POTLINE #6  130m.1,104 potline #2, Rooms 103 

and 104, A-398 

103m

 134.63 HDC FURNACE 

COMLEXES 

1EH 

 134.71 OFFLINES #2 134.7INDIANA 18 ESSROC CEMENT 

CORP. (Speed) 

 Clark 19 8 EU20 Kiln #1 

 EU21 Kiln #2 INDIANA 18 GE PLASTICS MT. 

VERNON INC. 

 Posey 129 2 08-706 CO AND ORGANIC 

SULFIDE STREAM FROM PHOSGENE FED 

08-70

707 

 09-001 B&W NATURAL GAS 

AND OIL FIRED BOILER 

09-00

 09-001 Riley Boiler 12-00 12-001 Hot Oil Heater  09-002 LASKER BOILER 09-00 09-002 ERIE BOILER 09-00
PECHAN 

2007 

Table III-5 (continued) 

 37 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

State State ID Source Name County 

County 

ID Source ID BART Emission Unit ID Description Stack 

INDIANA 18 ISG-BURNS 

HARBOR (Formerly Beth. Steel) 

 Porter 127 1 460-01 #7 Boiler 4 

 46002 #8 Boiler 5  460-03 #9 Boiler 6  460-04 #10 Boiler 7  460-05 Boiler #11 8  460-06 #12 Boiler 9  512-06 #1 COKE BATTERY 

PUSHING 

11 

 512-08 #1 Coke Battery 

Underfire 

13 

 512-14 #2 COKE BATTERY 

PUSHING 

12 

 512-16 #2 COKE BATTERY 

UNDERFIRE STACK 

14 

 520 BLAST FURNACE 

FUGITIVES 

 

 520-04 SINTER WINDBOX 

STACK 

25 

 520-18 BLAST FURNACE D 

CASTHOUSE EMISSIONS 

33 

 520-18 C BLAST FURNACE 

STOVES 

31 

 520-19 BLAST FURNACE D 

STOVES 

34 

 520-19 BLAST FURNACE C 

CASTHOUSE 

33 

 534 STEELMAKING 

FUGITIVES 

 

 534-01 STEELMAKING HMD 

STATION #1 

57 

 534-02 STEELMAKING HMD 

#2 

59 

 534-10 STEELMAKING 

VESSELS #1 & #2 

62 

 534-11 STEELMAKING 

VESSELS 

64 

 534-23 STEELMAKING FM 

BOILER 

65 
PECHAN 

Table III-5 (continued) 

 38 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

State State ID Source Name County 

County 

ID Source ID BART Emission Unit ID Description Stack 

 595-24 CASTER #1 80  670-05 HOT STRIP FURNACE 

#1 

90 

 670-07 HOT STRIP #3 

FURNACE 

92 

 670-07 HOT STRIP 91  673-14 160" OKATE MILL 

FURNACE #1 

112 

 673-15 160" PLATE MILL 

FURNACE #2 

113 

 673-16.17 160" PLATE MILL 

FURNACES 4&5 

110 

 673-18.19 160" PLATE MILL 

FURNACES 6&7 

111 

 673-20 160" PLATE MILL 

FURNACE #8 

114 

 674.26,27 110" PLATE MILL 

FURNACES #1 

122 

MICHIGAN 26 Lafarge Midwest Inc. Alpena 7 B1477 Kilns #1-#5 MICHIGAN 26 Stone Container Corp. Ontonagon 131 A5754 Riley Boiler  Paper Machine #2 MICHIGAN 26 Tilden Mining Co Marquette 103 B4885 Pelletizing Line #1, includes 

kiln, furnace, cooler, dryer 

 Boiler #2  Primary crusher MICHIGAN 26 Empire Iron Mining Marquette 103 B1827 Pelletizing Lines #1 - #3 furnace  Boilers #1 - #3  Primary crusher MICHIGAN 26 St. Mary’s Cement 

(CEMEX) 

Charlevoix 29 B1559 Kiln and pre-calciner 

MICHIGAN 26 New Page Paper 

(Escanaba) 

Delta 41 A0884 Boiler #8 

 Boiler #9  Recovery furnace  Lime kiln MINNESOTA 27 Ipsat Inland St. Louis 137 2713700062 MINNESOTA 27 EVTAC-Fairlane St. Louis 137 2713700113 MINNESOTA 27 National Steel 

(Keewatin) 

St. Louis 137 2713700063 

MINNESOTA 27 Hibbing Taconite St. Louis 137 2713700061 MINNESOTA 27 USS Minntac St. Louis 137 2713700005 MINNESOTA 27 Northshore Mining Lake 75 2707500003 
PECHAN 

Table III-5 (continued) 

 39 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

State State ID Source Name County 

County 

ID Source ID BART Emission Unit ID Description Stack 

N. DAKOTA 38 Great River Energy – 

Coal Creek 

McLean 55 17 

N. DAKOTA 38 Basin Electric Power – 

Leland Olds 

Mercer 57 1 

N. DAKOTA 38 Great River Energy – 

Stanton 

Mercer 57 4 

N. DAKOTA 38 Minnkota Power – MR 

Young 

Oliver 65 1 

OHIO 39 Mead Paper Division Ross 67 671010028 WISCONSIN 55 Georgia-Pacific 

Consumer Products (Formerly Fort James) 

Brown 9 405032870 Boiler B26 stoker (coal, tire and 

other fuels), 350 mmBtu/hr 

S10 

 Boiler B27 cyclone, 615 mmBtu/hr S10 
PECHAN September 2007 

 40 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

B. AREA SOURCE/MAR CONTROLS 

1. Area Sources 

Pechan worked with the LADCO states to determine how to estimate the effect of federal/

state/local rules on area source category emissions. The sub-sections below describe the results 

of this effort. 

a. VOC Solvent Categories 

For VOC emissions from consumer products and architectural and maintenance coatings, it was 

decided to estimate post-2005 VOC emission reduction credits using EPA guidance to states for 

estimating the benefits of three Federal rules being promulgated during calendar year 2007 

(Harnett, 2007). These rules will establish or amend VOC content limits for (1) aerosol coatings 

(new rule), (2) architectural and industrial maintenance (AIM) coatings (amendments), and 

(3) household and institutional consumer products (amendments). 

EPA estimated that the aerosol coatings rule will achieve the equivalent of a 19 percent reduction 

in mass VOC emissions from the 1990 baseline. The year 1990 represents the baseline, since 

there has been no previous Federal rulemaking for aerosol coatings. The creditable reduction 

that may be claimed is 0.114 pounds per capita. In the LADCO state 2005 emission inventory, 

this VOC emission reduction is applied to SCC 2460500000, which are Coatings and related 

products. A 12 percent VOC emission reduction is applied to SCC 2460500000 in each forecast 

analysis year (i.e., 2009, 2012, and 2018) to estimate the benefit of the federal aerosol coatings 

rule. This percentage is lower than the equivalent value estimated by EPA because the aerosol 

coatings rule is a subset of the Coatings and related products category represented by SCC 

2460500000. 

For AIM coatings, EPA estimates that the amended Federal AIM rule will achieve a reduction of 

31 percent from the post-1998 Federal rule baseline of 3.6 pounds per capita. This is a creditable 

reduction of 1.1 pounds per capita. AIM coating emission reductions are applied to the 

following SCCs in the base year LADCO inventory for each analysis year: 2401001000; 

2401002000; 2401003000; 2401008000; 2401008999.2

For consumer products, EPA has calculated that the amended Federal rule will achieve a VOC 

reduction of approximately 29 percent beyond that achieved by the 1998 Federal rule. This is a 

creditable reduction of 0.9 pounds per capita. Emission reductions from the Federal rule are 

applied to all Consumer Product source categories (SCCs 2460*) in each analysis year. 

b. Portable Fuel Containers 

For portable fuel containers (PFCs), while there are state-by-state differences in likely rule 

adoption dates, all state’s control factors are based on the EPA mobile source air toxics (MSAT) 

rule requirements. EPA adopted emission standards for portable fuel containers (such as gas 

 

2

 Note that subsequent to delivery of the area source/MAR control file, Wisconsin stated that this last SCC should 

not be included for their state. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 41 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

cans) under the consumer products authority of the Clean Air Act. Starting with containers 

manufactured in 2009, the standard limits evaporation and permeation emissions from these 

containers to 0.3 grams of hydrocarbons per gallon per day. EPA also adopted test procedures 

and a certification and compliance program in order to ensure that containers meet the emission 

standard over a range of in-use conditions. 

The VOC emission reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the new rule affects PFC 

sales starting during 2009, and that each PFC that meets the MSAT standard has 75 percent 

lower emissions than the PFC being replaced. 

To account for the fact that growth in the portable fuel container population and turnover from 

old to new containers will be affected by the MSAT rule,3

 Pechan calculated projection year 

emissions using the following equation: 

(Eq. 1)

where: 

 QN = emissions in projection year 

 Qo = emissions in base year 

 Ri = annual retirement rate 

 Fe = emission factor ratio for existing sources (1.0) 

 GN = projection year growth factor (projection year activity/base year activity) 

 Fn = emission factor ratio for new sources relative to existing sources 

 t = number of years between base year (2002) and projection year 

The first term in the equation represents new source growth and controls, the second term 

accounts for retirement and controls for existing sources, and the third term accounts for 

replacement source controls. Because retirement was not estimated using a constant annual rate 

(5 percent were assumed to be retired in the first year, with 10 percent retired in each additional 

forecast year), Pechan replaced the (1-Ri)

t

 terms in this equation with the appropriate proportion 

of containers retired between the base year and the appropriate forecast year. Pechan then 

computed an overall emission reduction for each future year of interest by comparing the 

forecast year controlled emissions calculated from this equation to the forecast year uncontrolled 

emissions. For example, an overall VOC emission reduction of 26.4 percent was computed for 

Illinois. Pechan then back-calculated the appropriate rule penetration (RP) value for each 

forecast year based on the overall emissions reduction, the 75 percent CE value, and an rule 

effectiveness (RE) of 100 percent (e.g., the calculated RP for Illinois for 2012 is 35.2 percent). 

 

3 Note that to simplify the analysis Pechan assumed that all post-2005 new container growth would be affected by 

the MSAT rule (due to low growth rates, this assumption does not have a significant impact on the overall emission 

reduction estimates of this rule). 

[ ] ( ) () () ⎭

⎬

⎫

⎩

⎨

⎧ ⎥⎦

⎤ ⎢⎣

⎡ ⎥⎦

⎤ ⎢⎣

⎡ = − n + − e + − − Fn t

i F R ti F R N Qo G NQ 1 1 1 1
PECHAN September 2007 

 42 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

c. Residential Wood Heating (Woodstoves and Fireplace Inserts) 

Pechan developed control factors by pollutant and year to account for the effect of the 

replacement of retired wood stoves/inserts that emit at pre-residential wood heater new source 

performance standard (NSPS) levels,. These control factors were developed using an annual 

2 percent retirement rate for wood stoves/fireplaces along with pre- and post-NSPS wood stove 

and fireplace emission factors. SCCs for "controlled" wood stoves and fireplace inserts have no 

control factors applied. Pechan developed updated residential wood combustion control factors 

for the LADCO states using the same algorithms applied previously (Pechan, 2004). Table III-6 

displays the emission reduction, control efficiency, and rule penetration percentages modeled. 

d. Stage II Vehicle Refueling 

Pechan developed updated (2005 base year) Stage II vehicle refueling control factors via 

MOBILE runs for the LADCO states. Onroad refueling control factors were calculated based on 

the percentage difference between the projection year (2009, 2012, and 2018) MOBILE6 

refueling emission factors and the 2005 MOBILE6 refueling emission factors. 

MOBILE6 emission factors were calculated at January and July temperature and fuel conditions. 

July emission factors were used as the surrogate for the five-month ozone season (May through 

September) and the January emission factors were used as the surrogates for the remaining seven 

months. Temperatures modeled were the January and July average daily monthly maximum and 

minimum temperatures for each state (i.e., Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and 

Wisconsin) based on 30-year average temperature data, as used in EPA’s second Section 812 

Prospective analysis. MOBILE6 input files were created for each unique combination of: 

January and July Reid vapor pressure, reformulated gasoline, oxygenated fuel, gasoline sulfur, 

and Stage II control programs for each of the states mentioned above. Fuel data and Stage II 

control program information for each state and corresponding projection year were based on 

EPA’s National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) County Database (version NDC20060201). 

Data extracted from NMIM’s County Database for these input parameters were based on January 

and July values. 

Stage II control programs for IL, IN, and WI began in 1998 with a phase-in year of one year and 

with a percent efficiency value of 86.0 percent for LDGVs and LDGTs in the program. 

Similarly, the HDGVs in the program have 86.0 percent efficiency. For Ohio, these control 

programs began in 1993 with a two-year phase-in and 77.0 percent efficiency for both the 

LDGVs + LDGTs and HDGVs in the program. 

Modeling these temperature, fuel, and Stage II control inputs (where applicable), Pechan 

calculated MOBILE6 emission factors for calendar years 2005, 2009, 2012, and 2018. 

The resulting MOBILE6 emission factors were first weighted according to the default MOBILE6 

VMT mix to determine the weighted average refueling emission factor for all gasoline vehicle 

types. The resulting January and July emission factors were weighted together according to the 

number of days in the seven-month season (212 days) and the five-month ozone season (153). 
PECHAN 

2007  43 Development of 2005 Base Year G

for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-6. Residential Wood Combustion NSPS Emission Reductions 

(percentage values) 

2009 2012 

SCC SCC Description Pollutant Reduction

Control 

Efficiency 

Rule 

Penetration Reduction 

Control 

Efficiency

Rule 

Penetration Reduc

2104008001 Total Fireplaces CO 2.9 55.0 5.3 4.9 55.0 8.9 2104008010 Total Woodstoves CO 3.1 55.0 5.6 5.2 55.0 9.5 2104008000 Total Fireplaces & Woodstoves CO 3.0 55.0 5.5 5.1 55.0 9.3 2104008001 Total Fireplaces NOX 1.9 28.6 6.6 3.3 28.6 11.5 2104008010 Total Woodstoves NOX 2.0 28.6 7.0 3.4 28.6 11.9 2104008000 Total Fireplaces & Woodstoves NOX 2.0 28.6 7.0 3.3 28.6 11.5 2104008001 Total Fireplaces PM10-PRI 2.3 35.9 6.4 4.0 35.9 11.1 2104008010 Total Woodstoves PM10-PRI 2.5 35.9 7.0 4.2 35.9 11.7 2104008000 Total Fireplaces & Woodstoves PM10-PRI 2.4 35.9 6.7 4.1 35.9 11.4 2104008001 Total Fireplaces PM25-PRI 2.3 35.9 6.4 4.0 35.9 11.1 2104008010 Total Woodstoves PM25-PRI 2.5 35.9 7.0 4.2 35.9 11.7 2104008000 Total Fireplaces & Woodstoves PM25-PRI 2.4 35.9 6.7 4.1 35.9 11.4 2104008001 Total Fireplaces VOC 5.9 77.4 7.6 9.8 77.4 12.7 2104008010 Total Woodstoves VOC 5.6 77.4 7.2 9.4 77.4 12.1 2104008000 Total Fireplaces & Woodstoves VOC 5.4 77.4 7.0 9.2 77.4 11.9 

Note: Rule effectiveness (RE) of 100 percent for each SCC/year.
PECHAN September 2007 

 44 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

After this was done for all of the modeled years and state or sub-state areas, the overall control 

efficiency for refueling, due to fleet turnover, was calculated based on the percentage difference 

between the 2005 and corresponding projection year emission factors. These control efficiencies 

were then assigned to individual counties, based on the mapping of fuel and Stage II control 

parameters to those modeled in the MOBILE6 files. 

2. MAR Sources (Locomotives and Marine Vessels) 

EPA issued a proposed rule this spring affecting future criteria pollutant emissions from railroad 

locomotives and commercial marine vessels (CMVs) (EPA, 2007b). These are the two off-road 

source categories that are addressed in this report. Base year emissions (2005) information for 

these two source categories was developed by ENVIRON under contract to LADCO 

(ENVIRON, 2007a and b). 

Control factors for criteria air pollutants were developed using Chapter 3 (Emissions Inventory) 

of EPA’s “Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from 

Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per 

Cylinder” (EPA, 2007b). This chapter presents EPA’s analysis of the emissions impact of the 

proposed rule for three source categories affected: commercial marine diesel engines, 

recreational marine diesel engines, and locomotives. The proposed control requirements include 

NOx and PM emission standards for Category 1 and Category 2 commercial marine diesel 

engines (both above and below 37 kilowatts). New NOx and PM emission standards would also 

apply to all recreational diesel engines and locomotives. There are no new standards for HC or 

CO; however, the PM standards are also expected to decrease HC emissions. 

For locomotives, the EPA Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) chapter was used to develop 2009, 

2012 and 2018 estimates of baseline and post-control emissions by pollutant by locomotive 

usage. This information is summarized in Table III-7. The RIA examined the effect of the 

proposed rule on emissions for (1) large line haul, (2) large switch, (3) small railroads, and (4) 

passenger commuter trains. Each of these four usage types was assigned to the base year 2005 

emission inventory SCCs. The SCC assignments are shown at the bottom of Table III-7. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 45 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-7. Locomotive Emissions Reported in EPA Draft RIA 

Large Line Haul Large Switch Small Railroads Passenger Commuter 

Year Baseline Controlled Baseline Controlled Baseline Controlled Baseline Controlled 

Volatile Organic Compounds 

2006 43,874 5,501 2,891 1,609 

2009 43,486 42,008 5,696 5,552 3,032 3,032 1,546 1546 

2012 42,891 35,890 5,898 5,364 3,179 3,179 1,476 1301 

2018 41,684 23,607 6,325 5,066 3,497 3,497 1,332 771 

PM-2.5 

2006 27,082 2,202 907 992 

2009 24,216 23,661 2,120 2,070 870 870 861 861 

2012 23,800 20,672 2,188 2,006 912 912 819 738 

2018 22,542 14,516 2,309 1,896 991 991 719 466 

PM-10 

2006 27,919 2,270 935 1,023 

2009 24,965 24,393 2,185 2,134 897 897 888 888 

2012 24,536 21,311 2,256 2,068 940 940 845 761 

2018 23,240 14,965 2,380 1,954 1,022 1,022 741 480 

Oxides of Nitrogen 

2006 779,842 86,861 37,690 38,466 

2009 755,490 751,364 88,573 87,999 39,528 39,528 32,338 32,338 

2012 730,031 692,606 88,909 86,614 41,456 41,456 27,212 25,933 

2018 708,525 608,010 90,875 84,612 44,299 44,299 22,559 19,496 

SCC(s) 2285002006 2285002010 2285002007 2285002008; 2285002009 

Because the federal locomotive emission standards modeled under previous LADCO contracts 

will continue to achieve emission reductions, it was necessary for Pechan to adjust the 

information in the new RIA to estimate the total post-base year reductions from the effects of 

both the existing and proposed locomotive standards. Pechan computed a revised set of 

projected emissions for modeling years 2009, 2012, and 2018 that reflect application of EPA’s 

assumed locomotive growth rate (1.6 percent per year) to the base year (2006) emissions from 

their analysis. This step was used to estimate the emissions for each modeling year excluding 

the effects of both sets of emission standards. Next, Pechan computed the percentage reduction 

in emissions between the revised emissions in each modeling year and the controlled emissions 

reported in EPA’s draft RIA. Table III-8 shows how the revised baseline and percent reduction 

for each modeling year. For example, for large line haul railroads, the baseline 2009 

uncontrolled VOC emissions are estimated to be 46,014 tons nationally. Controlled emissions of 

42,008 tons represent an 8.7 percent VOC reduction from this uncontrolled emission estimate 

(46,014 – 42,008 = 4,010; 4,010/46,014 * 100 = 8.7). 
PECHAN September 2007 

 46 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-8. Percentage Reductions Associated with Federal Locomotive 

Standards 

Large Line Haul Large Switch Small Railroads Passenger Commuter 

Year 

Revised 

Baseline 

% 

Reduction 

Revised 

Baseline 

% 

Reduction 

Revised 

Baseline 

% 

Reduction 

Revised 

Baseline 

% 

Reduction 

Volatile Organic Compounds 

2006 

2009 46,014 8.7% 5,769 3.8% 3,032 0.0% 1,687 8.4% 

2012 48,258 25.6% 6,051 11.3% 3,180 0.0% 1,770 26.5% 

2018 53,080 55.5% 6,655 23.9% 3,498 0.0% 1,947 60.4% 

PM-2.5 

2006 

2009 28,403 16.7% 2,309 10.4% 951 8.5% 1,040 17.2% 

2012 29,788 30.6% 2,422 17.2% 998 8.6% 1,091 32.4% 

2018 32,765 55.7% 2,664 28.8% 1,097 9.7% 1,200 61.2% 

PM-10 

2006 

2009 29,281 16.7% 2,381 10.4% 981 8.5% 1,073 17.2% 

2012 30,709 30.6% 2,497 17.2% 1,028 8.6% 1,125 32.4% 

2018 33,777 55.7% 2,746 28.9% 1,131 9.7% 1,238 61.2% 

Oxides of Nitrogen 

2006 

2009 817,877 8.1% 91,097 3.4% 39,528 0.0% 40,342 19.8% 

2012 857,766 19.3% 95,540 9.3% 41,456 0.0% 42,310 38.7% 

2018 943,477 35.6% 105,087 19.5% 45,599 2.8% 46,537 58.1% 

SCC(s) 2285002006 2285002010 2285002007 2285002008; 2285002009 

Note: emissions reported in short tons. 

Analogous control factor calculations to those described above for locomotives were used to 

compute total CMV emission reduction values representing the effects of both existing and 

proposed emission standards. Table III-9 presents the EPA baseline emissions, Pechan’s revised 

baseline emissions (computed using EPA’s 0.9 percent annual growth assumption), EPA’s 

controlled emissions, and the percentage reduction estimates applied in this analysis. For 

example, the CMV standards are expected to reduce VOC emissions by 33.9 percent in 2018. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 47 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-9. Percentage Reductions Associated with Federal CMV Standards 

Emissions (short tons) 

Year Baseline

Revised 

Baseline Controlled

% 

Reduction 

Volatile Organic Compounds 

2005 17,295 

2009 16,870 17,926 16,863 5.9% 

2012 16,495 18,414 16,344 11.2% 

2018 16,034 19,431 12,851 33.9% 

PM-2.5 

2005 30,042 

2009 27,327 31,138 27,324 12.2% 

2012 26,657 31,987 26,582 16.9% 

2018 22,553 33,753 19,308 42.8% 

PM-10 

2005 30,972 

2009 28,172 32,102 28,169 12.3% 

2012 27,481 32,977 27,403 16.9% 

2018 23,251 34,798 19,905 42.8% 

Oxides of Nitrogen 

2005 825,229 

2009 781,105 855,341 781,105 8.7% 

2012 743,915 878,643 742,453 15.5% 

2018 686,966 927,171 591,991 36.2% 

Sulfur Dioxide 

2005 82,543 

2009 46,838 85,555 46,839 45.3% 

2012 42,515 87,886 42,515 51.6% 

2018 6,054 92,740 5,630 93.9% 

Carbon Monoxide 

2005 153,499 

2009 149,966 159,100 149,966 5.7% 

2012 146,227 163,434 146,227 10.5% 

2018 140,443 172,461 140,443 18.6% 

For commercial marine diesel engines, the RIA examines expected rule emission benefits for 

four different engine types/sizes. The total CMV emission benefits in each year were used and 

applied equally to most of the affected SCCs in the 2005 inventory. However, Pechan applied 

rule penetration (RP) values to two CMV SCCs based on an ENVIRON table indicating RP 

values of less than 100 percent for these SCCs (see Table III-10). 
PECHAN September 2007 

 48 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table III-10. Commercial Marine Vessel Rule Penetration Values 

Percentage of Engines Affected by Proposed EPA Standards Source 

Category 

Code (SCC) 

Source 

Definition Purpose 

Geographic 

Area NOx PM-10 HC CO SOx 

2280002023 Push Boats Barge Freight River Traffic 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Lake Traffic 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280002021 Tugs Vessel assist 

and support 

functions 

Near port 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280003200 Mid-Great 

Lakes 

85% 81% 86% 86% 77%

2280003100 

Deep draft Laker and 

ocean-going 

large vessels Near port 81% 71% 87% 83% 63%

2280002022 Ferries River or lake 

ferrying 

Regular routes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280002024 Other 

Commercial 

Vessels 

Excursion 

boats 

primarily 

Near dock 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280002025 Dredges Dredging 

projects 

Varies 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280002029 Support 

Vessels 

General work 

boats 

Near port 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280002030, 

22800040301

Commercial 

Fishing 

Market 

fishing 

Great Lakes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

2280002040, 

22800040401

Military Coast Guard 

and Navy 

Great Lakes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
PECHAN September 2007 

 49 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

SECTION IV. PREPARATION OF GROWTH AND CONTROL 

FILES 

This section describes the contents of the growth and control factor files submitted to LADCO 

earlier this month. The first subsection discusses the preparation of the point and area source/

MAR factor file and the revised NONROAD model growth file. The final subsection describes 

the contents of the control factor files. 

Table IV-1 presents the RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format for reporting emission growth and 

control data. Pechan utilized this format to create growth and control factor files for LADCO. 

Because the growth factors (unlike the control factors) do not differ by pollutant, Pechan 

developed a separate file containing only the point and area source/MAR growth factors. Pechan 

revised the growth packet portion of the NONROAD model growth file (NATION.GRW) to 

replace the default model equipment population growth rates with growth rates based on more 

recent/more region-specific information. Two sets of control factor files were prepared: one for 

area source/MAR categories and one for point source categories. The point and area 

source/MAR growth and control files were developed in fixed field ascii format. The format of 

the default NONROAD model growth file was retained in the revised version prepared for 

LADCO. The following subsections describe the contents of the growth and control factor files. 

A. GROWTH FACTORS 

Pechan compiled the LADCO region growth factor information into the file 

$LADCO_2005_GF_Final_RPO.txt. Table IV-2 displays the RPO Data Exchange Protocol 

Format fields and identifies the fields that were populated in this file. The file contains separate 

records for each SCC/state for each year between 2006 and 2018 (population-based growth 

indicator records are reported by SCC/state/county because population projections were available 

at the county-level). 

Pechan revised the input file used by the NONROAD model (NATION.GRW) to reflect 

historical equipment population changes and to estimate future equipment population changes. 

In particular, Pechan incorporated LADCO state-specific records to the GROWTH packet 

portion of this file. The fixed field format of the data in this packet is as follows: 

Characters Description

1-5 FIPS code (00000 = applies to entire nation; ss000 = applies to all of state ss) 

6-10 subregion code (left blank) 

11-15 year of estimate (4-digit year) 

17-20 indicator code (alphanumeric code identified within NONROAD) 

26-45 value for indicator 

 
PECHAN September 2007 

 50 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table IV-1. RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format for Growth/Control Data 

Field Name Field Description

Field 

Length

RECORD TYPE A code that identifies the type of record (G for growth, C for 

control)

2

COUNTRY CODE A code that identifies the country (US = United States) 2

STATE PROVINCE TRIBAL CODE The code for the state/province/tribe 4

COUNTY FIPS The FIPS code for the county 3

SIC 4-digit SIC, or 2 digit SIC with remaining digits blank (not zero) 4

SCC EPA source classification code or a fraction of the code 10

SITE ID Unique state/local/tribal ID reported consistently over time 15

EMISSION UNIT ID Unique state/local/tribal ID reported consistently over time 6

EMISSION RELEASE POINT ID State/ local/tribal ID for point /location where emissions are 

released to ambient air

6

POLLUTANT CODE Pollutant code 9

PROCESS ID Unique state/local/tribal ID reported consistently over time 6

BASE DATE Date that the control strategy comes into effect 6

FUTURE DATE Future date that the control strategy affects 6

PRIMARY CONTROL EQUIPMENT CODE Primary control equipment code 10

BASE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY Base year % control efficiency(60% reduction = 60) 6

FUTURE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY Future year % control efficiency(60% reduction = 60) 6

FUTURE DATE GROWTH FACTOR Growth factor based on changes in throughput, economic 

growth (unrelated to controls). This is an absolute growth rate 

not an annual growth rate.

11

CONTROL TYPE MACT, RACT, LAER, SIPCALL, BART, etc 10

FUTURE DATE CHEMICAL SPECIATION 

PROFILE

Code matching speciate chemical speciation profile unless in 

base year

6

ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS CAP Allowable emissions cap units must be in TONS/day 10

MARKET PENETRATION OF NEW 

SPECIATION PROFILE

Fraction of future year emissions using new speciation profile 6

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 3 (Field used to enter future year control efficiency value where 

available)

10

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 2 (Field used to enter future year rule effectiveness value where 

available)

10

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 1 (Field used to enter future year RP value where available) 10

CONTROL DESCRIPTION A text description of the control 80

PRIMARY CONTACT Email address of the primary contact/developer of this record 30
PECHAN September 2007 

 51 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table IV-2. Fields Populated in Growth Factor File 

Field Name Populated in Growth Factor File?

RECORD TYPE Yes 

COUNTRY CODE Yes 

STATE PROVINCE TRIBAL CODE Yes 

COUNTY FIPS Yes (with “000” except for population data) 

SIC No 

SCC Yes 

SITE ID No 

EMISSION UNIT ID No 

EMISSION RELEASE POINT ID No 

POLLUTANT CODE No 

PROCESS ID No 

BASE DATE Yes 

FUTURE DATE Yes 

PRIMARY CONTROL EQUIPMENT CODE No 

BASE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY No 

FUTURE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY No 

FUTURE DATE GROWTH FACTOR Yes 

CONTROL TYPE No 

FUTURE DATE CHEMICAL SPECIATION PROFILE No 

ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS CAP No 

MARKET PENETRATION OF NEW SPECIATION PROFILE No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 3 (future year CE) No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 2 (future year RE) No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 1 (future year RP) No 

CONTROL DESCRIPTION No 

PRIMARY CONTACT Yes 

B. CONTROL FACTORS 

Pechan compiled control factors for the LADCO states in two sets of ascii files: one set for point 

source controls (LADCO 2005 Base Year Point Control File.txt), and the other set for area 

source/MAR controls (LADCO 2005 Base Year Area Source and MAR Control File.txt). 

1. Point Source Control Factors 

The LADCO 2005 Base Year Point Control File.txt file reports control information at the 

Process ID-level and for the specific date that each control is expected to be implemented. Note 

that the Base Date Control Efficiency field is populated with a zero for every record because 

Pechan did not have any base year control information other than that reported in the base year 

inventory supplied by LADCO. LADCO should rely on the control information in the base year 

inventory to identify the base year level of control. For MACT standards, the point source 

control factors are incremental to base year control levels. Because all other point source control 
PECHAN September 2007 

 52 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

factors represent absolute control levels, LADCO should subtract any existing 2005 inventory 

level of control from the control factor level of control to determine net reductions for nonMACT controls. Pechan found very few point source records with control information, so 

LADCO should expect very little control overlap between the 2005 inventory and the control 

file. Table IV-3 identifies the RPO Data Exchange Protocol fields that are populated in the point 

source control file. 

2. Area Source and MAR Control Factors 

Pechan compiled the area source and MAR control factor information into a single ascii file that 

reports the level of control for each year of interest (2009, 2012, and 2018). In cases where there 

is no change in emission reduction after the initial implementation year, the level of control is 

repeated for each year. For controls where emission reductions increase over time (due to 

increased levels of RP), the level of control increases for each successive modeling year. Except 

for the single control for which emission reductions are county-specific (Stage II Vehicle 

Refueling), the area source and MAR control factor file is expressed at the state-level. In cases 

where it was feasible to do so, Pechan populated the 5th, 4th, and 3rd fields from the end of each 

control factor file (“RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE” in the RPO Data Exchange Protocol 

Format) with future year CE, RE, and RP values, respectively (the field “FUTURE DATE 

CONTROL EFFICIENCY” was populated with the overall percentage emission reduction). 

Table IV-4 identifies the RPO Data Exchange Protocol fields that are populated in this file. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 53 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table IV-3. Fields Populated in Point Source Control Factor File 

RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format Field Name

Populated in Point 

Source Control 

Factor File

RECORD TYPE Yes 

COUNTRY CODE Yes 

STATE PROVINCE TRIBAL CODE Yes 

COUNTY FIPS Yes 

SIC Yes 

SCC Yes 

SITE ID Yes 

EMISSION UNIT ID Yes 

EMISSION RELEASE POINT ID Yes 

POLLUTANT CODE Yes 

PROCESS ID Yes 

BASE DATE Yes 

FUTURE DATE1 Yes 

PRIMARY CONTROL EQUIPMENT CODE No 

BASE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY2 Yes 

FUTURE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY3 Yes 

FUTURE DATE GROWTH FACTOR No 

CONTROL TYPE Yes 

FUTURE DATE CHEMICAL SPECIATION PROFILE No 

ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS CAP No 

MARKET PENETRATION OF NEW SPECIATION PROFILE No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 3 (future year CE) No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 2 (future year RE) No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 1 (future year RP) No 

CONTROL DESCRIPTION Yes 

PRIMARY CONTACT Yes 

1

 Represents date that control is first implemented. 2

 All records populated with “0" - LADCO should rely on control information reported in base year inventory. 

3

 Populated with overall percentage emission reduction. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 54 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Table IV-4. Fields Populated in Area Source/MAR Control Factor File 

RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format Field Name

Populated in Area 

Source/MAR Control 

Factor File 

RECORD TYPE Yes 

COUNTRY CODE Yes 

STATE PROVINCE TRIBAL CODE Yes 

COUNTY FIPS Yes 

SIC No 

SCC Yes 

SITE ID No 

EMISSION UNIT ID No 

EMISSION RELEASE POINT ID No 

POLLUTANT CODE Yes 

PROCESS ID No 

BASE DATE Yes 

FUTURE DATE Yes 

PRIMARY CONTROL EQUIPMENT CODE No 

BASE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY Yes 

FUTURE DATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY1 Yes 

FUTURE DATE GROWTH FACTOR No 

CONTROL TYPE No 

FUTURE DATE CHEMICAL SPECIATION PROFILE No 

ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS CAP No 

MARKET PENETRATION OF NEW SPECIATION PROFILE No 

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 3 (future year CE) Yes2

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 2 (future year RE) Yes2

RESERVED FOR FUTURE USE FIELD 1 (future year RP) Yes2

CONTROL DESCRIPTION Yes 

PRIMARY CONTACT Yes 

1 Populated with overall percentage emission reduction (product of CE, RE, and RP). 

2

 Not populated for Federal locomotive standards or Stage II Vehicle Refueling control program.
PECHAN September 2007 

 55 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

SECTION V. REFERENCES 

BLS, 2007: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “State Occupational Employment Projections, 

Long-Term,” accessed from http://www.projectionscentral.com/projections.asp, Office of 

Employment Projections, Washington, DC. Accessed May 2007. 

DOE, 2007a: U.S. Department of Energy, “Annual Energy Outlook 2007, with Projections 

through 2030,” DOE/EIA-0383(2007), Energy Information Administration, Office of 

Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, DC. February 2007. 

DOE, 2007b: U.S. Department of Energy, “State Energy Consumption, Price, and Expenditure 

Estimates (SEDS),” accessed from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html, 

Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, 

Washington, D.C. Accessed April 2007. 

ENVIRON, 2007a: ENVIRON International Corporation, “Draft LADCO 2005 Commercial 

Marine Emissions,” prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, 

IL, March 2, 2007. 

ENVIRON, 2007b: ENVIRON International Corporation, “Draft LADCO 2005 Locomotive 

Emissions,” prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL, 

February 2007. 

EPA, 2004: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Inventory—Ammonia 

Emissions from Animal Husbandry Operations, Draft Report,” (no further identifying 

information available). January 2004. 

EPA, 2007a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Clean Watersheds Needs Survey 2000,” 

data for LADCO states accessed from http://www.epa.gov/owm/mtb/cwns/index.htm,

Office of Wastewater Management, Washington, DC. Accessed May 2007. 

EPA, 2007b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: 

Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines and Marine 

Compression-Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder – Chapter 3: Emission 

Inventory,” Assessment and Standards Division, Office of Transportation and Air 

Quality, EPA420-D-07-001, March 2007. 

FAA, 2007: U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, “Terminal Area Forecast System,” data for 

LADCO states accessed from http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp, Office of 

Aviation Policy and Plans, Washington, DC. Accessed March 2007. 

Freedonia, 2006: The Freedonia Group, Inc., “Solvents to 2010, U.S. Industry Study with 

Forecasts to 2010 & 2015,” Study #2055, Cleveland, OH, April 2006. 
PECHAN September 2007 

 56 Development of 2005 Base Year Growth and 

Control Factors for LADCO - Final Report 

Harnett, 2007: William T. Harnett, “Guidance for Estimating VOC and NOx Emission Changes 

from MACT Standards,” Memorandum to Regional Air Division Directors, U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, May 11, 2007. 

Metra, 2007: Metra, “2007 Metra Program and Budget,” accessed from 

http://metrarail.com/Budget/2007BudgetBook.pdf, Chicago, IL, May 2007. 

Page, 2007: Stephen D. Page, “Emission Reduction Credit for Three Federal Rules for 

Categories of Consumer and Commercial Products under Section 183(e) of the Clean Air 

Act,” Memorandum to Air Division Directors, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

Research Triangle Park, NC, May 30, 2007. 

Pechan, 2004: E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., “Development of Growth and Control Factors 

for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) – Final Report,” Durham, NC, 

prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL, December 15, 

2004. 

Pechan, 2005: E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., “Development of Updated Growth and Control 

Factors for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) – Draft Report,” 

Durham, NC, prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, Des Plaines, IL, 

December 29, 2005.