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4.11 Growth-Inducing Effects 

Significance Criteria 

NEPA requires that an EIS analyze both the indirect and growth-inducing effects of a 

proposed action (40 CFR Section 1502.16[b], 40 CFR Section 1508[b]). As defined, 

indirect effects are: 

“Caused by the action and are later in time or farther removed in distance, but are 

still reasonably foreseeable. Indirect effects may include growth-inducing effects 

and other effects related to induced changes in the pattern of land use, population 

density or growth, and related effects on ... natural systems.” 

The significance of growth-inducing effects of a proposed action or alternatives is 

determined to a large extent by whether or not an action would cause a significant 

increase in local population and trigger further development, for example, by increasing 

employment, providing utilities or other support facilities that allow or encourage people 

to move to an area. Growth inducement could result from an action that establishes 

substantial new permanent employment opportunities or that removes obstacles to growth 

(e.g., providing or expanding wastewater treatment or water supply to allow more 

construction in the area served). 

4.11.1 Potential Growth-Inducing Effects Related to the Action 

As discussed in Section 1.0 of the EIS, the proposed action would convey 17,370 acres of 

land now owned by the Nation to the Federal Government to be held in trust status. 

There is no proposed change in the use of lands or ground disturbing activities associated 

with the proposed action or other trust alternatives. There are no developments planned or 

projects dependent upon the trust action which would increase population or trigger 

additional residential or commercial growth in the area. 

Indirect effects of the proposed action and alternatives are discussed in the previous 

sections. Specific growth-inducing effects which are reasonably foreseeable and more likely 

attributable to, or caused by, the proposed action are discussed here. Generally, the 

potential growth-inducing effects of the proposed action fall into the category of 

socioeconomics, which includes increased visitation to the Turning Stone Resort & 

Casino, higher employment due to increased visitation, and potential population growth 

of Nation members on Nation lands. 

Section 1.2 discusses the Purpose and Need for the proposed action as expressed by the 

Nation. One of the central elements of the action is to preserve an adequate tribal land 

base that “facilitates the creation of a homeland for those Nation members located 

elsewhere in New York State or throughout the U.S.” To the extent that the proposed 

action or alternatives would cause or stimulate a significant in-migration of Nation 

members to a “secure homeland,” there could be a growth-inducing effect. 
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The Nation’s ongoing housing program is described on Page 4-311. The Nation 

anticipates that a small number of members (82) could move back into the area during the 

next five years to take advantage of the ongoing housing program, regardless of the trust 

action. The Nation has not, at this time, factored or anticipated growth in the Nation’s 

population residing within the area beyond what the current housing program expects. In 

other words, the Nation has not planned for a larger, more expanded housing or building 

program because of the trust action beyond the 82 members. This projected increase 

amounts to less than a one percent increase in the number of Nation members currently 

residing within the Nation’s homeland. Therefore, growth-inducing effects of the proposed 

action would be less than significant. 

Under the scenarios whereby the Nation pays property taxes (Property Taxes Paid) or

does not pay property taxes and operates and functions under a dispute with regard to 

taxation/jurisdiction (Property Taxes Paid – Dispute Continues), the growth that is 

projected by the Nation with regard to existing plans, programs and operations would 

continue. Under Alternatives E Property Taxes Not Paid – Foreclosure and Alternative G 

Casino Closes and All Enterprises Close scenarios, the Nation would retain ownership of 

little or none of their lands. This would affect the ability of the Nation to continue 

implementation of their ongoing members housing program and as a result, growth that is 

projected by the Nation with regard to existing plans, programs and operations would not 

continue. Therefore, the cumulative effect associated with Alternatives E and G is that 

there would be less growth than currently projected. 

Under the Alternative G Casino Closes and All Enterprises Close scenario, it is expected 

that as many as 5,860 jobs would be lost. This would be due to a loss of jobs sustained by 

Nation enterprises, Nation government jobs, and the loss of jobs at associated non-Nation 

businesses. Moreover, the expected decrease in employment under No Action is 

anticipated to decrease the population of Madison and Oneida Counties (see Section 4.7 

Socioeconomics) as a result of out-migration from the two counties. The loss of these jobs 

would have a significant adverse effect on the Nation, non-Nation employees and their 

families, businesses dependent on the Nation’s enterprises, as well as the regional 

economy. 

4.11.2 Potential Growth-Inducing Effects Related to Ongoing and Planned 

Nation Activities 

As discussed elsewhere in this document, the Nation’s ongoing and reasonably foreseeable 

plans for the Turning Stone Resort & Casino, other enterprises and Nation programs, 

including housing, are part of ongoing programs and current plans that are separate from 

the federal action to convey lands into trust. However, since some of the Nation’s actions 

could be influenced by excluding lands from conveyance into trust, they are discussed in 

this section. Additionally, with lands in trust and secured from alienation or foreclosure, 

the projected growth in visitors and employment associated with the Nation’s enterprises 
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is more likely. This includes related employment and economic growth of both the Nation 

and non-Nation communities in the Study Area. With the casino in trust, it is anticipated 

that a more secure business environment would exist in the surrounding area, facilitating 

future economic investments by the Nation and outside businesses that may be drawn to 

Oneida and Madison County. 

4.11.2.1 Nation Housing Program 

The Nation is expected to add some housing at the Village of the White Pines Member 

Housing complex and elsewhere to meet the housing needs of the 66 Nation members on 

the waiting list for housing units. This housing is already underway and is not related to 

the federal trust action. It is estimated that 64 percent of those Nation members who are 

on the waiting list for new housing live locally. Additionally, it is estimated that 

approximately 34 percent live outside the area which would result in the construction of 

approximately 24 new housing units for Nation members who could migrate into the 

Study Area. As discussed in Section 4.7, this could result in 82 Nation members migrating 

into the Study Area from outside the region. This small increase in population and inmigration to Nation lands is expected to be less than significant. 

4.11.2.2 Nation Enterprises 

As reported in Section 4.7, it is anticipated that 260 jobs would be created as a result of 

the Nation’s current plans, programs and continued growth in customers of its business 

operations. It has been estimated that 5.3 percent of the total permanent jobs would be 

new jobs – jobs created in the economy rather than shifts from one job to another with no 

replacement in the labor force. Spending by the Nation and its projected new employees is 

anticipated to generate an additional 49 new jobs in the area. 

As part of ongoing activities planned by the Nation and previously described in Section 

4.1, which primarily includes improvements/expansions to the Turning Stone Resort & 

Casino it is anticipated that there would be minimal recruitment from outside the 

Madison-Oneida area to fill future jobs created by implementation of these Nation 

activities. In particular, the majority of new hires already employed by the Nation live 

locally and the majority of new positions projected in Section 4.7 are not expected to be 

high salary positions. Thus, the expected increase in employment by the Nation that is 

projected to occur in the future is anticipated to increase the population of Madison and 

Oneida Counties by 80 and 181 residents, respectively, as a result of migration into the 

area. Consequently, it is expected that the creation of new jobs would result in little to no 

increase in demand for new housing. The development of any new housing (non-Nation), 

if necessary, within Madison or Oneida Counties associated with new jobs would be 

subject to approval by the local community in conformance with land use plans and 

zoning ordinances. The local community would determine the consistency of any proposed 

housing development with the goals and policies of their master or comprehensive plan. 
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Thus, ongoing and currently planned future activities (casino-resort and other enterprise 

related) envisioned by the Nation are not expected to induce significant residential growth. 

4.11.3 Activities by Others 

Securing the future of the Turning Stone Resort & Casino would create an economic 

climate favorable to further investment by the Nation in their existing enterprises and 

outside investment by others in the two-county area. This environment would result in 

additional jobs, revenue and spending in the area, as discussed in Section 4.7 

Socioeconomics. Commercial growth within the Study Area would be expected to be 

generally consistent with recent trends and occur over a wide geographic area, supporting 

existing businesses, as well as new businesses. This growth generally has been at a low 

level, with the two-county area experiencing a loss of major businesses and associated 

local jobs. One potential project includes the proposed Verona Greens development in the 

Town of Verona that was previously discussed in Section 4.1. Non-Nation commercial 

development would be subject to approval of local communities in conformance with local 

land use plans and ordinances that were developed to guide and control growth. 

Therefore, it is expected that effects attributable to induced growth would be less than 

significant.