Fiscal Year Return Projections for 

the United States 

2006 - 2013 

Office of Research 

Research, Analysis, and Statistics 

Document 6292 

Spring 2006 Update 

FY

BOD
 

Document 6292 (revised 6-2006) is produced by the IRS Office of Research, within 

the Research, Analysis, and Statistics organization. 

Janice M. Hedemann 

Director, Office of Research 

Andre Palmer 

Acting Chief, Projections and Forecasting Group 

Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts or related matters can 

be directed to the corresponding staff member listed below. 

Corporation Terry Manzi (202) 874-1083 

Partnership, Fiduciary, Estate, Gift and Taukir Hussain (202) 874-0585 

Excise 

Employment Eric Henry (202) 874-0965 

Exempt Organization, Political Michelle Chu (202) 874-0593 

Organizations, Employee Plans, Katy Yeh (202) 874-0110 

Government Entity/Bonds, Business and 

Individual e-file 

 

Individual (Income Tax, Estimated Tax, Andre Palmer (202) 874-0588 

Extensions and Amended) Katy Yeh (202) 874-0110 

 

Other Comments or Questions Andre Palmer (202) 874-0588 

Forecasts Available Electronically 

Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication are also available on the IRS's 

web site. From the www.irs.gov website, select the "Tax Stats" link, then “Products and 

Publications”, and then "Projections" (under the Publications heading). IRS employees 

can also access this projection product on the IRWeb intranet site by selecting the 

“Commissioner” link, followed by “Research, Analysis and Statistics”, then 

“Publications“, and then “Projections and Forecasting documents.” 

Distribution 

If you are an IRS employee and would like to receive a printed copy of this document on 

a continual basis, please contact your local IMDDS coordinator and obtain the 

appropriate protocol for inclusion on the distribution list. All non-IRS customers, and 

IRS customers uncertain of their local IMDDS coordinator, can contact the Acting Chief, 

Projections and Forecasting Group on (202) 874-0588. 
 

 Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States: 

2006 – 2013 

Document 6292 

Spring 2006 Update

Suggested Citation 

Internal Revenue Service 

Research, Analysis and Statistics 

Office of Research 

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States: 

2006 – 2013 

Document 6292 (Rev. 6-2006) 

Washington, D.C. 20224 
 

Table of Contents

(Spring 2006) 

Staff Directory ..................................................................... Inside Front Cover 

Forecasts Available Electronically ........................................... Inside Front Cover 

Overview .............................................................................................. 1 

Data Sources and Projection Methodology ................................................... 1 

Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions .............................................. 2 

Track Record of Projection Accuracy .............. ................................. .......... 5 

Comments and Questions ........................................................................ 6 

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns 

 to be Filed with IRS ..................................................................... 7 

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by 

 Business Operating Division ......................................................... 9 

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major 

 Return Categories ...................................................................... 10 

Table Notes .......................................................................................... 11 

Other Projection Documents .................................................. Inside Back Cover 
Overview 

The following spring 2006 edition of IRS Document 6292 provides the most recent 

revisions to the U.S. level projections of tax returns to be filed for fiscal years (FY) 2006 

through 2013 by the major return categories, including selected detail by IRS business 

operating divisions. Office of Research staff, within the IRS Research, Analysis, and 

Statistics organization prepare these projections semi-annually in order to incorporate 

changes in filing patterns, economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements, 

and IRS administrative processes. These forecasts provide a basis for IRS workload 

estimates and resource requirements contained in IRS budget submissions and other 

resource planning and analysis. The projections in this document are based on the 

information available in early spring 2006, including enacted tax law changes and 

confirmed administrative plans. Legislative or administrative initiatives under 

consideration are generally not used to adjust the projections due to the uncertain 

nature of their eventual outcome. As a result, the projections of electronically filed (efile) returns contained in this publication are not goals, per se, and should not be 

interpreted as precluding an alternate e-file future. 

Data Sources and Projection Methodology 

The reported actual values of returns filed in FY 2005 are based on returns processed 

and recorded on the IRS master files. These values are mostly obtained by the same 

master file reporting systems as those used in the Internal Revenue Service Data Book 

(Publication 55B) for that processing year. In cases where master file return counts 

were not available, tallies of actual filings were supplied by program staff in the IRS 

operating divisions, generally from data capture systems located in the IRS processing 

campuses. 

Depending on the properties and characteristics of each filing category, the forecasting 

methods were selected to capture and extrapolate historical filing trends in Document 

6292. In general, the projections are computed for the calendar year of filing and 

converted to the corresponding fiscal year based on the historical quarterly filing 

experience. The resulting outcome is applications of statistical models such as 

regression models, time series techniques, growth rates and historical ratio methods. 

The projection method used depends on the form type, the availability of historical data, 

and applicability of relevant economic and demographic forecasts. Primary principles 

used throughout the document are time series extrapolation methods such as trended 

exponential smoothing approaches. However, some return forecasts are based on 

regression models which incorporate key economic and demographic input variables 

provided by Global Insight, Inc. Customers interested in obtaining more detail on 

forecasting methodologies are welcome to contact the respective staff member listed on 

the inside front cover. 
 2

Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions 

A summary of the major trends and other significant factors embedded in the return 

forecasts for this edition of Document 6292 are noted below. 

E-file Mandates 

In January 2005, IRS released regulations that imposed e-file mandates for some large 

corporations and tax-exempt organizations whose assets exceed certain thresholds. 

However, these e-file mandates only apply to those corporation and tax-exempt entities 

that file at least 250 returns (including other tax returns such as Forms 941 and 

information returns). The e-file mandates require corporations with total assets of at 

least $50 million to e-file their Forms 1120/1120S income tax returns starting on January 

1, 2006. This e-file requirement is expanded to corporations with at least $10 million in 

assets beginning in 2007. In total, approximately 13,000 and 30,000 Forms 1120/1120S 

filers are projected to fall under the e-file mandates in 2006 and 2007, respectively. 

Similarly, tax-exempt organizations with $100 million or more in total assets that file at 

least 250 returns are required to file their Forms 990 electronically starting on January 1, 

2006, with the threshold lowered to $10 million in 2007. These e-file mandates are 

expected to impact an estimated 1,700 Form 990 filers in 2006 and approximately 

10,000 filers in 2007. Also impacted, beginning in calendar year 2007, are private 

foundations and charitable trusts which will be required to file their Forms 990/PF 

electronically, regardless of their asset sizes, if they file at least 250 tax returns. 

However, less than 100 filers of Form 990PF are likely to be impacted by the mandate. 

Corresponding adjustments have been made to the e-file forecasts for Forms 1120, 

1120S, 990 and 990PF in this edition of Document 6292 to account for the impact of 

these mandates. 

Cessation of the IRS TeleFile Programs 

On August 16, 2005, IRS officially discontinued the TeleFile programs for Forms 

1040EZ, 4868 and 941. The actual fiscal year 2005 data shown in this update of 

Document 6292 represent the final year of published TeleFile data. 

Elimination of Form 2688 

IRS implemented new regulations this filing year (2006) that had the de facto effect of 

eliminating filings of Form 2688 (Application for Additional Extension of Time to File U.S. 

Individual Income Tax Return). In previous years, Forms 4868 (i.e., the “first extension”) 

provided a four-month grace period, while Forms 2688 (i.e., the “second extension”) 

supplied an additional two-month extension. The new regulations provided taxpayers an 

automatic six-month extension to file individual returns, if they file a Form 4868 

(Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File a U.S. Income Tax Return). The 

effects of these two forms are combined into a single six-month automatic extension via 

Form 4868. 
 3

Expansion of Form 7004 

The projections in this publication reflect the expanded scope of Form 7004, which was 

only used previously to request an extension to file a corporation income tax (Form 1120 

series) return. Form 7004 will now be used to file extensions for partnership (Form 

1065) and fiduciary (Form 1041) returns. The dramatic increase shown in the current 

filing season (2006) estimate represents the effects of this development. 

Excise E-file Estimates 

The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 includes a mandate requiring Form 2290 

(Heavy Highway Vehicle Use Tax Return) filers reporting 25 or more trucks to e-file 

beginning in July 2005. Although the implementation date for the e-file system was 

delayed, at the time of this publication, the IRS is scheduled to provide e-filing 

capabilities starting in August 2007. Once the system is in place, Forms 2290, as well as 

Forms 720 (Quarterly Federal Excise Tax Return), can be electronically filed. This 

edition of Document 6292 includes forecasts of excise returns based on the latest 

confirmed implementation date. 

Changes in Estate Tax 

The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 had a significant 

impact on estate tax law. The tax relief act reduced estate tax liability by raising the 

allowable exempt amount of taxable estates and by lowering the maximum tax rate for 

calendar years 2002 through 2009. Under current law, the estate tax will be repealed for 

deaths occurring in 2010 only. In 2011, the estate tax law will then revert to the law in 

place before June 7, 2001. The effects of the 2001 tax law account for the unique trend 

in estate tax return filings over the forecast horizon covered in this document.

New Form 944 

In an effort to reduce taxpayer burden on small businesses, IRS plans to make Form 944 

(Employer’s Annual Federal Tax Return) an annualized version of Form 941 (Employer’s 

Quarterly Federal Tax Return) available to taxpayers starting in January 2007. Form 944 

will be available to business filers with annual employment tax liability of $1,000 or less. 

Instead of filing quarterly Forms 941, eligible taxpayers will file Form 944 once a year. 

Consequently, as qualified taxpayers switch to filing Form 944, return volumes of Form 

941 will drop, beginning in mid-FY 2006. Around 900,000 taxpayers are expected to 

transition to Form 944 in its first year. As a result, this edition of Document 6292 

includes forecasts of the new Form 944, as well as the associated downward impact on 

Form 941 return volumes for both e-file and paper components. 
 4

Employee Plans Returns 

Forms 5500 is a multi-agency Information Return filed to satisfy reporting requirements 

to Internal Revenue Service, Department of Labor (DOL), and Pension Benefit Guaranty 

Corporation. Form 5500EZ is an IRS return created to ease filer burden for oneparticipant plans. The Form 5500 series has been processed by the Department of 

Labor since calendar year 2000. However, the DOL is creating a system to support the 

electronic filing mandate for Form 5500 returns satisfying the reporting requirements 

under Title I of ERISA. Since some of the IRS data needed falls outside the scope of 

Title I, the IRS will regain responsibility for processing portions of the Form 5500 data in 

the future. More specifically, Form 5500EZ and Schedule SSA returns will be processed 

in IRS starting in calendar year 2009. In support of IRS Tax Exempt/Government 

Entities (TE/GE) Division’s resource planning needs, this update of Document 6292 

includes projected total Forms 5500 and 5500EZ volumes (Table 2, Selected Fiscal Year 

Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division). Additional EP returns 

projections will be included in future documents. 

The 2005 actual EP volume reflects a count of all returns posted to the Employee Plan 

Master File, including welfare benefit plan returns. However, the projected EP returns 

are based on historical data from the 208-18-10 Report and exclude welfare benefit 

plans. This provides a more accurate count of the number of Forms 5500 and 5500EZ. 

Fiduciary (Form 1041) Returns 

In January 2006, IRS released final regulations modifying the reporting requirements for 

Widely Held Fixed Investment Trusts (WHFITs). The regulation changes reporting 

requirements for Form 1041 filers, specifically, for non-mortgage widely held fixed 

investment trusts. In effect, a significant number of previous fiduciary Form 1041 filers 

will instead file an Information Reporting document (form to be determined). The 

regulation is estimated to result in a decrease of approximately 800,000 Form 1041 

returns, mostly e-filed returns, starting in processing year 2008. 

Trend in Grand Total Return Filings 

As presented in Table 1, grand total return filings are expected to reach 230.2 million in 

fiscal year 2006, a growth of two percent over FY 2005. In contrast, grand total filings for 

FY 2007 are expected to increase one percent from FY 2006 to 232.8 million returns. 

However, the small growth in grand total filings in 2007 is a net effect that masks some 

rather dramatic shifts among selected return volumes. In particular, and for reasons 

highlighted in the preceding narrative, volumes of Forms 941 are projected to drop 

noticeably in 2006. Meanwhile, filings of Forms 7004 are expected to nearly double. 

After FY 2007, grand total return filings are projected to grow at a more typical average 

annual rate of a little over one percent, reaching 249.2 million by FY 2013. 
 5

Detail by Business Operating Division 

Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by IRS “Business Operating 

Divisions” (BODs). The selected returns include total individual income tax returns, 

corporation income tax returns, partnership returns, employment returns, excise returns, 

and exempt organization returns. As applicable, these volumes are broken out by their 

operating division components: “Wage and Investment” (W&I), “Small Business/Self 

Employed” (SB/SE), “Large and Mid-Sized Business” (LMSB) and “Tax 

Exempt/Government Entities” (TE/GE). Also included are the projected total filings of 

employee plans (EP) returns currently processed by the Department of Labor, which 

comprise major return filings by taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating division. 

Track Record of Projection Accuracy 

In an effort to measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with 

Table 3, provides a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using four years 

of actual data from 2002 through 2005, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national 

level projections by major return categories. This analysis covers only the major return 

categories projected on a calendar year basis and serves as a general measure for 

gauging the overall reliability of our U.S. level return projections. The return categories 

considered in Table 3 consist of the following: Grand Total, Total Primary Returns, 

Individual (income tax) Total, Individual Estimated Tax, Fiduciary, Partnership, 

Corporation, Employment, Exempt Organization, and Excise. When there was sufficient 

data on prior forecasts, we also included selected breakouts of “paper” volumes versus 

“e-file/magnetic tape” filings. 

The table presents two measures of projection accuracy; the mean absolute percent 

error (MAPE), and the number of over-projections. We also include the latest actual 

filing volumes for 2005 to provide perspective on the volume of returns being projected. 

The MAPE is computed as the average percent projection error regardless of whether 

they were over- or under- projections over the four most recently applicable projection 

cycles. The associated number of over-projections can show whether we consistently 

over- or under- project. A value of two indicates balanced forecasts over the four cycles. 

The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined 

by when the forecast was made and for what future year. For example, a forecast for 

2002 made in 1999 would be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon. The table 

presents time horizons from one to five years ahead and factors in the most current four 

observations. As an example, for the “3-years-ahead” information, we use the forecasts 

made in 1999 for 2002, those made in 2000 for 2003, those made in 2001 for 2004, and 

those made in 2002 for 2005. 

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns to be Filed with IRS 

Actual - FY Projected - Fiscal Year

Type of Return 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 

Grand Total 225,406,059 230,779,000 233,425,400 235,894,600 238,879,400 241,732,500 244,448,200 

 

 Paper Grand Total 147,619,588 147,913,900 142,822,400 138,658,000 135,064,300 132,216,100 129,910,400 

 

 Electronic Grand Total 77,786,471 82,865,100 90,603,000 97,236,600 103,815,100 109,516,400 114,537,800 

 

Total Primary Returns 208,665,591 210,523,300 212,380,400 214,174,600 216,482,000 218,684,000 220,746,100 

 

Individual Income Tax, Total 132,854,063 134,437,600 136,017,700 137,554,700 139,027,800 140,470,800 141,878,000 

 

 Forms 1040, 1040A and 1040EZ 132,114,346 133,664,600 135,214,000 136,720,400 138,162,900 139,575,200 140,951,700 

 

 Paper Forms 1040/1040A/1040EZ 63,707,629 60,686,600 56,026,700 51,965,000 48,460,100 45,502,500 43,033,700 

 

 Electronic Individual Returns 68,406,717 72,978,000 79,187,300 84,755,400 89,702,800 94,072,700 97,918,000 

 

 Form 1040NR 623,062 653,600 681,600 709,500 737,400 765,400 793,300 

 

 Forms 1040PR and 1040SS 116,655 119,400 122,100 124,800 127,500 130,300 133,000 

 

Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES 28,730,658 29,750,300 30,163,700 30,380,700 30,494,700 30,554,500 30,585,900 

 

 Paper Form 1040ES 28,677,325 29,676,400 30,079,900 30,287,000 30,390,900 30,440,500 30,461,600 

 

 Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040ES 53,333 73,900 83,800 93,700 103,800 114,000 124,300 

 

Fiduciary, Form 1041 3,684,256 3,756,500 3,818,900 3,138,600 3,143,600 3,205,900 3,268,300 

 

 Paper Fiduciary Returns 2,334,070 2,362,000 2,364,000 2,431,800 2,387,700 2,400,500 2,413,900 

 

 Electronic Fiduciary Returns 1,350,186 1,394,500 1,454,900 706,800 755,900 805,400 854,400 

 

Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES 829,978 850,700 862,800 874,900 887,000 899,100 911,200 

 

Partnership, Forms 1065 and 1065B 2,664,591 2,863,200 3,026,700 3,185,100 3,338,600 3,487,500 3,632,100 

 

 Paper Partnership Returns 2,494,020 2,585,000 2,650,100 2,703,600 2,738,700 2,755,100 2,753,100 

 

 Electronic Partnership Returns 170,571 278,200 376,600 481,500 599,900 732,400 879,000 

 

Corporation Income Tax, Total 6,101,295 6,315,700 6,477,100 6,649,000 6,815,900 6,973,100 7,125,100 

 

7 Paper Corporation Returns, Total 5,900,373 5,691,500 5,149,900 4,390,800 3,872,400 3,668,700 3,639,300 

 

 Electronic Corporation Returns, Total 200,922 624,200 1,327,200 2,258,200 2,943,500 3,304,400 3,485,800 

 

 Forms 1120 and 1120A 2,248,408 2,213,000 2,183,300 2,145,000 2,107,200 2,071,400 2,036,800 

 

 Electronic 1120/1120A 51,223 147,500 350,400 625,600 845,100 950,600 981,500 

 

 Form 1120F 26,363 27,600 28,400 29,300 30,300 31,100 32,000 

 

 Form 1120H 170,291 179,300 186,600 194,800 202,600 209,900 217,000 

 

 Forms 1120L/PC/SF/FSC/REIT/RIC 22,257 20,700 21,200 21,800 22,500 23,200 23,900 

 

 Form 1120S 3,633,976 3,875,000 4,057,600 4,258,100 4,453,400 4,637,400 4,815,400 

 

 Electronic 1120S 149,699 476,600 976,800 1,632,600 2,098,400 2,353,800 2,504,200 

 

Small Corporation Election, Form 2553 565,768 587,400 608,600 622,400 637,100 652,500 667,600 

 

"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066 21,757 23,100 24,600 26,100 27,500 28,800 30,200 

 

Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T) 65,703 53,600 38,000 32,000 28,600 20,400 11,600 

 

Gift, Form 709 276,570 264,800 263,700 262,600 261,500 245,900 180,700 

 

Employment Tax, Total 30,840,863 29,779,400 29,197,600 29,539,400 29,863,100 30,156,000 30,417,500 

 

 Paper Employment Returns, Total 25,057,856 24,205,500 23,401,300 23,418,200 23,427,900 23,406,900 23,354,300 

 

 Electronic Employment Returns, Total 5,783,007 5,573,900 5,796,200 6,121,200 6,435,200 6,749,100 7,063,200 

 

 Form 940, Total 5,889,398 6,073,500 6,121,300 6,170,900 6,219,800 6,263,400 6,303,500 

 

 Paper Forms 940, 940EZ and 940PR 4,937,514 5,050,700 5,028,700 5,006,800 4,983,400 4,954,800 4,922,500 

 

 Form 940 E-File/On-line/XML 951,884 1,022,800 1,092,600 1,164,100 1,236,500 1,308,700 1,381,000 

 

 Forms 941, 941PR and 941SS, Total 24,541,466 23,303,200 21,806,700 22,096,100 22,370,400 22,619,400 22,840,800 

 

 Paper 941, 941PR/SS, Total 19,710,343 18,752,100 17,132,400 17,168,800 17,201,900 17,209,500 17,189,500 

 

 Form 941 E-File/On-line/XML 4,018,301 4,551,100 4,674,300 4,927,300 5,168,500 5,409,900 5,651,300 

 

 Form 941 TeleFile 812,822 - - - - - - 

 

 Form 944 NA - 878,700 893,200 905,000 916,800 928,100 

 

 Paper Form 944 NA - 849,400 863,400 874,800 886,200 897,100 

 

 Electronic Form 944 NA - 29,300 29,800 30,200 30,600 31,000 

 

 Forms 943, 943 PR and 943SS 259,903 255,800 249,400 242,900 236,400 230,000 223,500 

 

 Form 945 148,186 144,900 139,600 134,400 129,400 124,500 119,700 

 

 Form CT-1 1,910 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 

 

Notes:See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return." Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding. Office of Research, PNA signifies form type is no longer valid or has not yet commenced. Table continues on the next page.
Table 1 (continued). Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns to be Filed with IRS

Actual - FY Projected - Fiscal Year

Type of Return 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 

Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042 30,712 31,800 32,400 33,000 33,600 34,200 34,800 

 

Exempt Organization, Total* 807,635 831,400 859,700 874,600 908,700 926,600 960,500 

 

 Paper Exempt Organization, Total 804,398 821,000 833,400 829,200 839,500 834,800 845,200 

 

 Electronic Exempt Organization, Total 3,237 10,400 26,200 45,400 69,200 91,800 115,300 

 

 Form 990 392,051 399,900 419,400 425,600 450,900 460,000 485,300 

 

 Form 990, Electronic 2,124 7,500 20,100 33,800 49,600 63,800 79,400 

 

 Form990EZ 137,379 149,000 151,900 154,800 157,800 160,700 163,600 

 

 Form 990EZ, Electronic 1,025 2,300 4,600 8,700 14,000 18,800 23,500 

 

 Form 990PF 85,051 89,300 92,100 95,200 98,400 101,500 104,600 

 

 Form 990PF, Electronic 88 600 1,500 3,000 5,700 9,200 12,400 

 

 Form 990T 67,196 64,000 64,800 65,600 66,400 67,100 67,900 

 

 Form 4720 2,007 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 

 

 Form 5227 123,951 127,100 129,100 131,000 132,900 134,700 136,400 

 

Form 990C * 3,524 3,400 3,300 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 

 

Government Entity/Bonds 49,466 52,900 54,500 55,600 56,700 57,700 58,800 

 

 Form 8038 3,804 6,200 6,400 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 

 

 Form 8038G 31,021 31,300 32,500 33,500 34,500 35,500 36,500 

 

 Form 8038GC 12,666 13,700 14,000 14,100 14,200 14,200 14,300 

 

 Form 8038T 1,741 1,500 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 

 

 Form 8328 234 200 300 300 300 300 300 

 

Political Organizations 9,252 9,100 8,900 9,300 9,000 9,500 9,100 

 

 Form 1120POL 5,069 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 

 

 Form 8871 1,160 1,500 1,800 1,900 1,900 2,000 2,000 

 

8 Form 8872 3,023 2,500 2,100 2,400 2,000 2,400 2,000 

 

 Electronic Form 8872 2,080 1,700 1,300 1,700 1,300 1,800 1,400 

 

Excise, Total 1,063,649 846,000 856,400 868,600 881,900 895,800 910,000 

 

 Form 11-C 9,990 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 9,800 

 

 Form 720 109,283 102,300 98,000 95,500 94,000 93,200 92,700 

 

 Electronic Form 720 NA - 100 800 1,700 3,100 5,500 

 

 Form 730 45,914 43,000 41,900 40,700 39,600 38,400 37,300 

 

 Form 2290 898,462 690,900 706,800 722,600 738,500 754,400 770,200 

 

 Electronic Form 2290 NA - 7,600 14,700 21,600 33,600 54,500 

 

Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330 25,118 27,100 27,600 27,600 27,600 27,600 27,600 

 

Payment or Refund under Sec. 7519, Form 8752 40,733 39,300 38,200 37,100 36,100 35,200 34,300 

 

Supplemental Documents 16,740,468 20,255,800 21,045,100 21,720,000 22,397,400 23,048,500 23,702,100 

 

 Form 1040X 3,181,743 3,440,900 3,533,900 3,625,900 3,716,700 3,806,400 3,895,000 

 

 Form 4868 9,359,150 9,702,000 10,013,600 10,325,000 10,636,000 10,946,700 11,257,100 

 

 Electronic Form 4868 1,814,778 1,925,400 2,332,000 2,738,900 3,145,800 3,552,900 3,960,000 

 

 Form 1120X 12,913 12,100 11,500 10,800 10,200 9,600 9,100 

 

 Form 5558 369,700 360,800 360,800 360,800 360,800 360,800 360,800 

 

 Form 7004 3,355,335 6,240,100 6,593,300 6,844,000 7,085,100 7,315,600 7,537,800 

 

 Electronic Form 7004 47,467 386,800 1,070,900 2,027,700 3,110,900 3,667,500 4,140,300 

 

 Form 8868 461,627 499,800 531,900 553,600 588,600 609,400 642,300 

 

 Electronic Form 8868 1,640 4,800 9,700 18,200 34,300 55,200 76,400 

 

Notes:See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return." Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding. Office of Research, PNA signifies form type is no longer valid or has not yet commenced. *Exempt Organization Total excludes Form 990C.
Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD)

Actual - FY Projected - Fiscal Year

Type of Return/BOD 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 

Individual Income Tax, Total 132,114,346 133,664,600 135,214,000 136,720,400 138,162,900 139,575,200 140,9

 

 Small Business/Self Employed 39,557,938 40,993,900 42,611,800 44,242,000 45,876,400 47,525,000 49,1

 

 Wage and Investment 92,556,408 92,670,700 92,602,200 92,478,400 92,286,400 92,050,200 91,7

 

Corporation Income Tax, Total 6,101,295 6,315,700 6,477,100 6,649,000 6,815,900 6,973,100 7,1

 

 Small Business/Self Employed 6,003,000 6,225,100 6,384,200 6,555,800 6,720,600 6,875,700 7,0

 

 Large and Mid-Sized Business 89,020 82,200 84,500 85,000 87,100 89,200 

 

 Tax Exempt/Government Entities 9,275 8,400 8,400 8,200 8,200 8,200 

 

Partnership Returns 2,664,591 2,863,200 3,026,700 3,185,100 3,338,600 3,487,500 3,6

 

 Small Business/Self Employed 2,583,775 2,772,100 2,929,100 3,081,500 3,229,500 3,373,400 3,5

 

 Large and Mid-Sized Business 80,493 90,700 97,300 103,300 108,700 113,700 1

 

 Tax Exempt/Government Entities 323 300 400 400 400 400 

 

Employment Tax, Total 30,840,863 29,779,400 29,197,600 29,539,400 29,863,100 30,156,000 30,4

 

 Small Business/Self Employed 28,173,049 27,054,200 26,443,300 26,750,800 27,042,000 27,305,300 27,5

 

9 Large and Mid-Sized Business 634,824 648,800 654,900 662,200 669,000 675,300 6

 

 Tax Exempt/Government Entities 2,032,990 2,076,400 2,099,400 2,126,500 2,152,000 2,175,400 2,1

 

Excise, Total 1,063,649 846,000 856,400 868,600 881,900 895,800 9

 

 Small Business/Self Employed 959,347 757,700 768,500 781,300 795,700 809,600 8

 

 Large and Mid-Sized Business 69,362 57,100 56,900 57,000 56,800 57,200 

 

 Tax Exempt/Government Entities 34,940 31,300 31,000 30,300 29,400 28,900 

 

Exempt Organization, Total 807,635 831,400 859,700 874,600 908,700 926,600 9

 

 Tax Exempt/Government Entities 807,635 831,400 859,700 874,600 908,700 926,600 9

 

Employee Plans, Forms 5500 and 5500EZ 957,501 929,200 922,000 922,000 922,000 922,000 9

 

 Tax Exempt/Government Entities 957,501 929,200 922,000 922,000 922,000 922,000 9

 

Notes:Form 990C returns are considered Large and Mid-Sized Business and are excluded from the Exempt Organization total. Projections of Employee Plans returns are based on the 208-18-01 Report; the 2005 count reflects postings to the Employee Plans Master File. Office of ReseaDetail may not add to total due to rounding. 
 Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories 

 Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Number of Overprojections

 for the Four (4) Most Recent Projection Cycles

Projection Error on Forecasts for: 

Calendar Year 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

Item 2005 Actual * Ahead Ahead Ahead Ahead Ahead

(thousands) N=4 N=4 N=4 N=4 N=4

Grand Total - Selected Returns * 227,738

 MAPE 1.85% 4.15% 6.50% 7.36% 7.41%

 Number of Overprojections 34444

 Grand Total - Paper 149,814

 MAPE 2.77% 6.06% na na na

 Number of Overprojections 3 4 - - -

 Grand Total - E-file/ Mag Tape 77,923

 MAPE 2.69% 4.10% na na na

 Number of Overprojections 1 1 - - -

Total Primary - Selected Returns * 208,592

 MAPE 2.03% 4.51% 7.03% 7.84% 8.23%

 Number of Overprojections 34444

 Primary Total - Paper 132,481

 MAPE 3.04% 6.58% na na na

 Number of Overprojections 3 4 - - -

 Primary Total - E-file/ Mag Tape 76,111

 MAPE 2.21% 3.60% na na na

 Number of Overprojections 1 1 - - -

Individual Total 133,023

 MAPE 0.73% 1.80% 2.54% 2.53% 1.74%

 Number of Overprojections 34433

 Individual Total - Paper 63,812

 MAPE 2.03% 5.70% 9.22% 14.40% 20.36%

 Number of Overprojections 43344

 Individual Total - E-file 68,464

 MAPE 2.47% 4.26% 8.59% 13.22% 24.40%

 Number of Overprojections 11110

Individual Estimated Tax 29,038

 MAPE 11.47% 23.89% 37.47% 43.25% 45.93%

 Number of Overprojections 34444

Fiduciary Total 3,699

 MAPE 2.44% 3.27% 3.74% 4.30% 5.80%

 Number of Overprojections 34433

Partnership Total 2,720

 MAPE 1.85% 4.86% 5.41% 5.86% 8.61%

 Number of Overprojections 01111

Corporation Total 6,165

 MAPE 1.36% 2.74% 2.86% 3.83% 4.32%

 Number of Overprojections 22123

Employment Total 31,058

 MAPE 1.69% 2.58% 2.39% 2.51% 2.40%

 Number of Overprojections 01112

Exempt Organization Total 819

 MAPE 4.04% 4.67% 3.17% 7.41% 8.26%

 Number of Overprojections 21331

Excise Total 839

 MAPE 2.81% 6.26% 7.31% 11.29% 11.88%

 Number of Overprojections 44444

* Some actuals shown in this table differ from official counts reported elsewhere Internal Revenue Service

 because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose Office of Research, Projections and Forecasting Group

 accuracy can not yet be evaluated. 2006

10
 11

Table Notes 

Detail may not add due to rounding. 

Projections are based on counts of returns filed as recorded in the Reports of Returns 

Posted to the IRS Master Files, with a few exceptions. In particular, complete master file 

counts for fiscal year 2005 were not available for Forms 1120X and 4868 and had to be 

supplied by operating division staff from secondary sources. 

Notes below are grouped by applicable table. 

Table 1: 

“Grand Total” is the sum of “Total Primary Returns” and “Supplemental Documents.” 

“Total Primary Returns” is the sum of all returns, excluding “Supplemental Documents.” 

“Individual Income Tax, Total” is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040A, 

1040EZ, 1040NR, 1040PR, and 1040SS. 

“Forms 1040, 1040A, and 1040EZ” is the sum of the paper and electronic Forms 1040, 

1040A, and 1040EZ. 

“Fiduciary” returns include both paper and electronic Form 1041. 

“Partnership” includes both paper and electronic Form 1065 and Form 1065-B. 

“Corporation Income Tax, Total” includes Forms 1120/1120A (both paper and 

electronic), 1120F, 1120H, 1120L, 1120PC, 1120SF, 1120FSC, 1120REIT, 1120RIC, 

and 1120S (both paper and electronic). As a result of enacted legislation, no Form 

1120FSC returns are expected beyond FY 2005. 

“Form 2553” is the election to be treated as a small business “S corporation”. 

“Form 1066” is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax 

Return. 

“Estate” includes Forms 706, 706NA, 706GS(D), and 706GS(T). 

“Form 709” is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return. 

“Employment Tax” includes paper and electronic Forms 940, 940EZ, 940PR, 941, 

941PR, 941SS, 943, 943PR, 943SS, 944, 945, and CT-1. 
 12

“Form 1042” is the Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign 

Persons. It is sometimes considered an employment tax return, but listed separately 

here. 

“Exempt Organization” includes Forms 990, 990EZ, 990PF, 990T, 4720, and 5227. 

“Form 990C” is the Farmer’s Cooperative Association Income Tax Return, filers of which 

are considered customers of the IRS Large and Mid-Size Business Operating Division. 

 

“Government Entities /Bonds” includes Forms 8038, 8038G, 8038GC, 8038T and 8328. 

“Political Organizations” includes Forms 1120POL, 8871 and 8872. 

“Excise, Total” includes Forms 11-C, 720, 730, and 2290. 

“Form 5330” is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans. 

“Form 8752” is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519. 

“Supplemental Documents” consist mainly of applications for extensions of time to file 

and amended tax returns, which include Forms 1040X, 4868 (both paper and electronic), 

1120X, 5558, 7004 (both paper and electronic), and 8868 (both paper and electronic). 

Table 2: 

Individual filers classified as “Small Business/Self Employed” reflect those taxpayers 

filing a Form 1040 return with a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E and/or Form 2106 

attached, or with mailing addresses or forms considered “International”. All other 

individual filers are classified as “Wage and Investment.” 

In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120S) and 

partnership filers are classified as “Large and Mid-Sized Business” if their reported total 

assets are $10 million or more. Corporation and partnership returns with assets below 

$10 million are generally classified as “Small Business/Self Employed.” However, there 

are also some partnership and corporation returns classified as part of the “Tax 

Exempt/Government Entities” operating division. 

Non-profit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units 

comprise the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” classification. 

 “Employee Plans” returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500 and 5500EZ 

Counts by operating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS master file 

“BOD indicator.” This indicator is a single, point-in-time, taxpayer level identifier (in 

contrast to a return-by-return identifier). 
 

Other Projection Documents 

 IRS 

 Document Typical 

Title Number Updates

Calendar Year Projections of Information and 6961 Spring 

Withholding Documents for the United States and 

IRS Campuses 

Calendar Year Return Projections for the 6186 Fall 

United States and IRS Campuses 

Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns 6187 Fall 

by Major Processing Categories 

Calendar Year Return Projections by State 6149 Winter

 

These documents are available electronically as noted inside the front cover. 

These documents may also be requested 

(1) by phone at (202) 874-0588, 

(2) by fax at (202) 874-0613, or 

(3) by writing to the following address 

Internal Revenue Service 

Office of Research RAS:R 

Attn: Acting Chief, Projections and Forecasting 

1111 Constitution Avenue, NW, NCA-7111 

Washington, D.C. 20224 
 

 

 

Department of the Treasury 

Internal Revenue Service 

publish.no.irs.gov 

Document 6292 (Rev. 06-2006) 

Catalog Number 45056C 

IRS