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NAFL INST OF STANDARDS & TECH R.I.C. ;iMCE & technology:

A1 11 03090274

Gray, Martha M/Computers In the Federal QC100 .U57 NO.500-, 46. 1979 C.1 NBS-PUB

National Bureau of Standards

Library, £-01 Admin. BIdg.

OCT 1 1981

181058

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COMPUTERS IN THE

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:

A COMPILATION OF STATISTICS -1978

NBS Special Publication 500-46

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Bureau of Standards
NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

The National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress March 3, 1901. The

Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the Nation's science and technology and

facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts

research and providps: (1) a basis for the Nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is performed by the National Measurement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory,

and the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology.

THE NATIONAL MEASUREMENT LABORATORY provides the national system of

physical and chemical and materials measurement; coordinates the system with measurement

systems of other nations and furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform

physical and chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, industry,

and commerce; conducts materials research leading to improved methods of measurement,

standards, and data on the properties of materials needed by industry, commerce, educational

institutions, and Government; provides advisory and research services to other Government

Agencies; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides

calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Absolute Physical Quantities' — Radiation Research — Thermodynamics and

Molecular Science — Analytical Chemistry — Materials Science. THE NATIONAL ENGINEERING LABORATORY provides technology and technical

services to users^ in the public and private sectors to address national needs and to solve national problems in the public interest; conducts research in engineering and applied science

in support of objectives in these efforts; builds and maintains competence in the necessary

disciplines required to carry out this research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement capabilities; provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops test methods and proposes engineering standards and code changes; develops and

proposes new engineering practices; and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer

results of its research to the utlimate user. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Applied Mathematics — Electronics and Electrical Engineering^ — Mechanical

Engineering and Process Technology^ — Building Technology — Fire Research —

Consumer Product Technology — Field Methods.

THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY conducts

research and provides scientific and technical services to aid Federal Agencies in the selection,

acquisition, application, and use of computer technology to improve effectiveness and

economy in Government operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.S.C. 759), relevant Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards

guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities; provides scientific and technological advisory services and assistance to Federal Agencies; and

provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government.

The Institute consists of the following divisions:

Systems and Software — Computer Systems Engineering — Information Technology.

'Headquarters and Laboratories at Gaithersburg, Maryland, unless otherwise noted; mailing address Washington, D.C. 20234. -Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, Colorado, 80303.

The National Bureau of Standards was reorganized, effective April 9, 1978.
COMPUTER SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY:

Computers in the Federal Government:

A Compilation of Statistics - 1978

Martha Mulford Gray

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, D.C. 20234

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary

Jordan J. Baruch, Assistant Secretary for Science and Technology

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Ernest Ambler, Director

Issued April 1979
Reports on Computer Science and Technology

The National Bureau of Standards has a special responsibility within the Federal

Government for computer science and technology activities. The programs of the

NBS Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology are designed to provide ADP

standards, guidelines, and technical advisory services to improve the effectiveness of

computer utilization in the Federal sector, and to perform appropriate research and

development efforts as foundation for such activities and programs. This publication

series will report these NBS efforts to the Federal computer community as well as to

interested specialists in the academic and private sectors. Those wishing to receive

notices of publications in this series should complete and return the form at the end

of this publication.

National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 500-46

Nat. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Spec. Publ. 500-46, 95 pages (Apr. 1979) CODEN: XNBSAV

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 79-600023

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON: 1979

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402

Stock No. 003-003-02037-1 Price $2.75

(Add 25 percent additional for other than U.S. mailing)
COMPUTERS IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:

A COMPILATION OF STATISTICS - 1978

ABSTRACT

This report presents data on the status of computer

technology in the Federal Government. It is an extension

and update of "Computers in the Federal Government: A

Compilation of Statistics" {NBS SP-500-7), June 1977. The

report contains a combination of existing statistics from

Federal Government and computer industry sources and

original statistics based on these sources. Data is

included on numbers of computers installed in the Federal

Government, dollar value of computers installed, numbers of

computers installed by agency. Federal ADP costs by agency.

Federal computers by acquisition date, and Federal ADP

work-years. A detailed analysis is presented for Federal

computers classifying the computers into three major

categories, general purpose computers, special computers and

minicomputers. Federal computers are compared with U.S.

computers in the same categories.

KEY WORDS: Federal Government Computers; Statistics; ADP

Costs; Federal Minicomputers; Federal ADP Statistics;

Federal acquisition dates; Federal ADP work-years

i i i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author acknowledges the extensive assistance

provided by Miss Barbara A Moran and Mrs Jean P Yancey in

the formulation and preparation of the graphs in this

report. The graphs were produced on the Univac 1108

computer through Dataplot, a system for interactive

graphical data analysis developed by James J Filliben,

Statistical Engineering Laboratory, National Bureau of

Standards. The author also wishes to thank Mr Filliben for

his individual assistance in the utilization of Dataplot.

The author also thanks Mrs Jackie Jones for assisting in the

manuscript preparation.

Special thanks are extended to the staff of the

Management Information Systems Division, General Services

Administration, in particular Mr Alvin Krakow, for

preparation of the special computer runs essential for

obtaining the data necessary for this report. Mr Krakow's

assistance and cooperation were invaluable to the data

collection requirements.

i V
Ta b1 e of Contents

Page

List of Figures vii

Summary of Findings x

I. Introduction 1

II. Classification System 3

III. Explanation of Computer Categories 5

IV. Structure of Report 9

V. Fiscal Year Data 10

A, Federal Government Statistics 10

B. Federal Government Statistics Compared 13

with U.S. Statistics

C; Federal Computer Systems by Purchase 16

Price

D. Analysis of Federal Computers and ADP 20

Costs by Agency

E. Computers by Federal Acquisition Date 28

F. Analysis of Federal ADP Work-Years 33

VI. Calendar Year Data 44

A. Federal Government Computers 44

B. United States Computers 49

C. Federal Government Computers Compared 54

with United States Computers

v
1. General Purpose Computers 5^

a. Size Class 1 Computers 57

b. Size Class 2 Computers 61

c. Size Class 3 Computers 63

d . Size Class 4 Computers 65

e. Size Class 5 Computers 67

f. Size Class 6 Computers 69

g. Size Class 7 Computers 71

2. Special Computers 73

3. Minicomputers 76

D. Analysis of U.S. General Purpose 76

Computers by SIC Code

References 83

vi
L i St of Figures

Page

1. Computers in the Federal Government by 11

Management Classification

2. Growth Rate of Computer Systems in the 12

Federal Government by Number of CPU's and

Doll ar Val ue

3. Growth Rate of Computer Systems in the 14

United States by Number of CPU's and

Doll ar Val ue

4. Total Computers (United States - Federal 16

Government

)

5. Total Dollar Value of Computer Systems 17

(United States - Federal Government)

6. Federal Computer Systems by Purchase Price 1^

( tabl e)

7. Federal Computer Systems by Purchase Price l^

(line graph)

8. Growth Rate of Computer Systems by Purchase 21

Price Classification

9. Annual Federal Installed Computer Base by 22

Ag ency

10. Agency Percentage of Annual Federal Installed 23

Computer Base

11. Federal Computers, by Agency 24

12. Annual Federal ADP Costs by Agency 26

(General Management Classification)

V i i
13. Agency Percentage of Annual Federal ADP 27

Costs (General Management CI ass i f i cat i on) jjr

14. Federal ADP Costs, by Agency 29

15. Computers by Federal Acquisition Date 31

16. Computers by Federal Acquisition Date 32

(line graphs)

17. Analysis of Federal ADP Work-Years 34

18. ADP Work-Years by Activity 35

19. ADP Work-Years by Activity - 1967 and 1977 36

20. Annual Costs for ADP (General Management 39

Classification)

21. Number of ADP Work-Years, by Agency 40

(General Management Classification)

22. Percentage of ADP Work-Years, by Agency 41

(General Management Classification)

23. Federal ADP Work-Years, by Agency 43

24. Computers in the Federal Government by 45

Category and Size (table)

25. Computers in the Federal Government by 46

Category (bar graph)

26. Computers in the Federal Government by 47

Category (line graph)

27. Growth Rate of Federal Computers by Number 48

28. Computers in the United States by Category 50

(bar graph)

29. Computers in the United States by Category 51

and Size (table)

30. Computers in the United States by Category 52

(line graph)

V i i i
Growth Rate of United States Computers by

Number

Total Number of

Government

Computers - U.S. and Federal

Federal General Purpose Computers by Size

and U.S. General Purpose Computers by Size

Growth Rate of General Purpose Computers

(Federal Government and United States)

Size Class 2 Computers

and United States)

Size Class 3 Computers

and United States)

Size Class 4 Computers

and United States)

Size Class 5 Computers

and United States)

Size Class 6 Computers

and United States)

Size Class 7 Computers

and United States)

Federal Government

Federal Government

Federal Government

Federal Government

Federal Government

Federal Government

Special Computers (Federal Government and

United States)

Growth Rate of Special Computers (Federal

Government and United States)

Minicomputers (Federal Government and

United States)

Growth Rate of Minicomputers (Federal

Government and United States)

U.S. Installed Base Dollar Value by

Industry - General Purpose Computers

U.S. General Purpose Computer Dollar Value

by Industry for 1973 and 1977 (bar graph)
Summa ry of Findings

0 As of year-end 1977 there were over 11,000 computers

in the Federal Government and over 325,000 computers in

the United States.

0 The dollar value of the computer systems in the Federal

Government was $4.45 Billion in FY77.

The dollar value of the computer systems in the U.S.

was approximately $49.7 Billion as of year-end 1977.

0 Over the last eight fiscal years the number of Federal

computers has increased over 11 percent annually while

the dollar value has increased less than 7 percent

annual 1 y

0 Currently Federal Government computers consist of 55

percent minicomputers, 30 percent general purpose

computers and 15 percent special computers.

U.S. computers consist of 66 percent minicomputers, 18

percent general purpose computers and 16 percent

special computers.

0 Over the last six calendar years the number of U.S.

computers has increased by over 25 percent annually

while the number of Federal computers has increased by

1 ess than 1 1 percent

0 The largest increase in U.S. and Federal general

purpose computers was in the size class representing

the largest and most expensive computers.

0 The largest increase of any segment of the U.S.

computers was minicomputers with an increase of

39 percent.

The largest increase of any segment of Federal

computers was minicomputers with an increase of

27 percent.

X
0 Federal Government computers represented 4 percent

of the total number of U.S. computers, 3 percent of

the U.S. minicomputers and 24 percent of the largest

size class of U.S. general purpose computers.

0 By agency, DOD accounts for 45 percent of the total

Federal computers, 55 percent of the ADP costs and 55

percent of the total ADP work-years.

0 Currently, the largest number of ADP work-years are

devoted to services and support, and equipment

opera t i on

0 As of FY77 less than 20 percent of the Federal

computers have acquisition dates prior to FY68.

xi

I. Introduction

The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

serves as a Federal Government focal point for computer

technology activities. The Institute programs are designed

to provide standards, guidelines and technical advisory

services to improve the effectiveness of computers and

computer applications in the Federal Government.

Appropriate research provides the foundation for these

activities.

In the process of conducting its program, the Institute

collects data from a variety of sources on the status of

computer technology, the extent of computer use in the

government and private sectors and the projected trends in

the technology and applications areas. This data is

analyzed from a number of points of view in order to support

ICST efforts in development of standards and guidelines and

in providing technical advisory services. The analyzed data

and resulting graphs and charts have proved most useful to

ICST personnel .

In the light of its own experience with the utility of

this data and analyses, ICST prepared a publication

"Computers in the Federal Government: A Compilation of

Statistics," (NBS SP-500-7) published in June 1977. Since

that time, further data has been collected to support the

ADP standards program. Much effort was expended to do more

detailed analysis of the size and types of computers in the

Federal Government, to ascertain the specific areas which

require standards attention. Because of the response to the

past publication, ICST decided to make available these

further statistical analyses. This version of the

compilation of data on computers in the Federal Government

will, it is believed, continue to be of general interest

within and outside the Federal Government computer

commun i ty

The main source of statistical information on computers

in the Federal Government is the General Services

Administration (GSA). Routinely GSA makes some information

1
available in their publications, "Inventory of Automatic

Data Processing Equipment in the United States Government

for Fiscal Year 19xx" and "Summary of Federal ADP activities

in the United States Government as of the end of Fiscal Year

19xx." The fiscal year figures in this report were generally

taken from these publications. In order to make possible a more detailed comparison of Federal and U.S. computers,

data for Federal computers on a calendar year basis was

required. These figures for Federal computers installed as

of year-end 1972 - 1977 were obtained from GSA by special

request. Since these figures are not part of GSA's

published statistics, and have therefore not received the

same amount of scrutiny as the fiscal year figures, they are

to be considered estimates of the year-end installed

computers in the Federal Government. They are the figures

that appear on GSA's data tapes for computers installed as

of December 31, 1972, January 31, 1974, December 31, 1975,

December 31, 1976, and December 31, 1977. (The January 31,

1974 data tape was the closest data that was available for a year-end figure for 1973. For the purpose of this report

these January 31, 1974 figures will be considered year-end

1973 figures.)

The source of statistics on computers in the United

States is International Data Corporation (IDC). In the

Annual Review and Forecast issue of "EDP Industry Report"

IDC publishes a census of computer models in the U.S. and

the total number of computers for past, present and future

years. Other U.S. figures in this report were obtained

from IDC by special request or taken from IDC special

reports

2
II. Classification System

In the June 1977 report, "Computers in the Federal

Government: A Compilation of Statistics," (NBS SP-500-7)

Federal computers were categorized by a management

classification scheme to identify systems operated under a wide variety of operational environments. This system of

classification is still used by the General Services

Administration in their publications. The general

management classification identifies systems which are used

in a general utility environment, whereas the special

management classification identifies systems used in

control, classified and mobile environments. International

Data Corporation, on the other hand, classified U.S.

computers into two categories, general purpose computers and

dedicated-application computers. The computers included in

the general purpose category comprised "the bulk of digital

computers (by value) in operation." They were "byte or

character oriented-- except for large-scale scientific

computers that have large words--and are primarily

programmed in higher-level languages." The computers in the

.dedicated-application category were "those commonly referred

to as mi ni -computers , plus certain larger systems designed

primarily for one application such as process control, data

communications, or data entry." This classification scheme

was used by IDC until 1977.

In the Annual Review and Forecast issue of "EDP

Industry Report," for April 22, 1977, IDC announced the

establishment of more meaningful computer categories,

general purpose computers, minicomputers and small business

computers. General purpose computers were divided into six

size classes numbered 2 through 7. The definition of

general purpose computers remained as listed above except

that small business computers formerly in size class 1 were

eliminated from the general purpose category. Minicomputers

were defined as "...general purpose in design but sold as

tools, not just solutions; are available from the makers as

complete systems, not just boards; are available to OEM's

and usually discounted in volume buys; and are part of a family that has at least one product in the $2,000-$25,000

•

3

/
price range and comes with at least 4K RAM." Small business

computers (SBCs) were defined as "...those small

general -purpose computers marketed by the major mainframers

and their competitors to small business and first time

users. They include offerings from the major

mainframers...; products .. .from the minimakers aimed at

commercial first time users; offerings from firms that

manufacture only SBCs; and offerings from companies that

assemble systems from other's minis..."

The April 22, 1977 issue of "EDP Industry Report" also

included a model -by-model census for all three categories of

computers as of year-end 1976. IDC utilized this same

breakout of computers again in their Annual Review and

Forecast issue of the "EDP Industry Report" for May 19,

1978, and included a model -by-model census for the three

categories of computers as of year-end 1977. Since by

definition, small business computers include some

minicomputers, the census for small business computers

repeats some of the computers in the minicomputer census.

The total number of U. S. computers given by IDC is the

total of all general purpose computers, minicomputers, small

business computers and "other" systems with the double

counting of small business and minicomputers eliminated.

Thus this total number is smaller than the sum of the number

of general purpose, mini and small business computers listed

on the censuses.

To facilitate the comparison of U. S. and Federal

statistics, special year-end listings of all Federal CPUs by

model number were matched with IDC's model -by-model census

for U.S. general purpose computers (size class 2 through 7)

and minicomputers, assigning IDC's categories and size

classes to the Federal CPUs. For purposes of this report,

the terms "CPU" and "computer" are used in agreement with

GSA's definitions that "...the term computer is synonymous

with central processing unit (CPU)." "Computer" should not

be confused with "computer system," defined by GSA as "a

configuration of ADP equipment which includes one or more

CPU's." All other U.S. computers and Federal CPUs except a small number of old general purpose computers were placed in

the special category. Using the general purpose, mini and

special categories in this manner eliminated the double

counting of minis experienced by IDC.

4
III. Explanation of Computer Categories

General Purpose Computers

In the May 19, 1978 issue of "EDP Industry Report,"

Annual Review and Forecast issue, page 13, IDC describes

general purpose computers as follows: "General -purpose

computers . . . comprise the bulk of digital computers by

value. They are primarily character or byte oriented and

programmed in higher-level language." These general purpose

computers are divided into six size classes. IDC describes

the size classes as follows, "Instead of being pegged to

constantly shifting average values, size classes are based

on currently marketed IBM products and other manufacturers'

models that compete with them, e.g., a computer in size

Class 7 would compete with an IBM 3033 or 168." The size

classes are listed for all of the current U.S. computers in

the general purpose computer census on page 13 and 14 of the

same source quoted above. The average main memory capacity

and average monthly rentals are based on currently marketed

models in the size classes. In addition to the six classes

of IDC, size classes 2 through 7, we added size class 1 for

Federal use only. The size classes are defined as follows.*

Size class 1 contains Federal computers of historical

interest only. Older computers still in the Federal

inventory were placed in this separate size class since they

are not really comparable to current computers.

Size Class 2 contains the smallest general purpose

computers. They are usually the lowest cost machines and

are considered entry level equipment. They have relatively

limited I/O channels and limited software. In general the

main memory capacity is from 16-64K bytes. The average

monthly rental of these machines is approximately $1,250-

*Certain commercial products are identified in this section

in order to cite relevant examples. In no case does such

identification imply recommendation or endorsement by the

National Bureau of Standards.

5
$2,500. Examples of computers in this category are: the

IBM System 3 Models 4, 6, 8, and 10; Honeywell H-61 Models

58 and 60; Univac 9200; NCR Century 50 and 75; and Singer

10.

Size class 3 computers are generally considered

small-scale computers, although some models do approach what

is considered to be medium-scale. Some members of this size

class are the smallest model of a family of larger computers

or the largest member of a small business data processing

computer family. The main memory capacity is generally

32-128K bytes, although some size class 3 computers have

main memory as large as 256K bytes. The average monthly

rental is $2 , 500-$9 , 000 . Examples of this size class are:

NCR Century 100, 101, and 151; Burroughs B-1800 and B-500;

Univac 90 Models 25 and 30, and 9300; Honeywell H-Level 62,

and H-2020; and IBM 370/115, System 3 Models 12 and 15, and

360/20.

Size class 4 computers are considered medium scale

computers. The average main memory capacity is 64-512K

bytes. The average monthly rental for size class 4

computers is approximately $8 , 000-$20 , 000 . Examples of

computers in this category are: IBM 370/125, 135, 138, and

360/30 and 40; Honeywell H-2040, 2050, 1200; Univac 90/60;

Burroughs B-2500/2 700/2800 and B-3500/3 700/3800 ; NCR

Century 200, 201,250; CDC Cyber 71, 171; DEC 10/40 and 50;

and Xerox Sigma 5 and 6.

Size class 5 computers are also considered medium scale

computers but usually have a much larger main memory

capacity of 128K - 2M bytes, with some models having memory

which exceeds 4M bytes. The average monthly rental of a size class 5 computer is $21,000 - $45,000. Representatives

of this size class are: IBM 370/145, 148, and 360/50;

Honeywell H-66/10, 17, 20, 27, and H3200; Univac 90/70,

9700, 1100/ 10 and 20 and Spectra 70/45 and 46; Burroughs

B-4500, 4700, 4800; NCR Century 300, 8580, 8590; CDC Cyber

72, 3200, 3500, DEC 10/60 and 70; Itel AS/4; and XDS Sigma

7.

Size class 6 computers are generally considered large

scale computers Some of the models have main memories as

large as 8M bytes. This size category has small members of

new families of large computers and the largest members of

some old families of computers. The average monthly rental

of these computers is $45,000-$95,000. Examples of size

6
class 6 computers include: IBM 3031 and 3032, 360/65,

370/155 and 158; CDC Cyber 172, 173, 174, 73, and 6400,

6500; Itel AS/5 and AS/6; DEC 10/80 and 90; XDS Sigma 9;

Burroughs 6500, 6700; Univac 1100//40, 81 and 82, 1106 and

Spectra 70/60, 6 and 7; Honeywell H-66/40 and 60, 6050/60,

6070 and 6080; and Amdahl 470/5.

Size class 7 computers are the largest computers in the

general purpose category and in the U.S. installed base.

These computers represent the largest models of a manufacturers product line. The largest members of this

size class can have main memory capacity of 16M bytes. The

average monthly rental of these machines is approximately

$100,000- $200,000. Representatives of this size class are:

IBM 3033, 370/165 and 168; Univac 1100/83 and 84, 1108,

1110; CDC Cyber 175, 176, 75 and 76, Star 100, 6600, 7600;

Amdahl 470/6 and 7; Cray lA ; Burroughs B-7700, 7800;

Honeywell H-66/80 and 85, H68/80, G-6180.

Mi nicomputers

In the May 19, 1978 issue of "EDP Industry Report,"

Annual Review and Forecast issue, page 17, IDC describes

minicomputers as follows: "The categorization of certain

computers as 'minicomputers' is based on marketplace

definitions as perceived by IDC. Minis are general - purpose

in design but sold as tools, not just solutions; are

available from the makers as complete systems, not just

boards; are available to OEMs and usually discounted in

volume buys; and are part of a family that has at least one

product in the $2,000- $25,000 price range and comes with at

least 4K RAM." This definition was adopted in matching

Federal computers with the IDC census. The three size

classes listed in the IDC minicomputer census were not used

for this report because there was insufficent GSA data to

match them. Therefore, all Federal and U.S. minicomputers

are in one category.

Special computers

The special computer category for Federal and U.S.

figures includes computers which are not identified as

general purpose computers or minicomputers. These "special"

computers include computers such as small business machines,

communications processors, data entry machines and process

7
control computers. Special militarized or ruggedized

machines are included in Federal figures only.

8
IV. structure of Report

The rest of this report is divided into two parts, one

on fiscal year data and one on calendar year data. The

section on fiscal year data is mainly based on data

available from GSA on Federal ADP. This includes number of

Federal computers, computer systems by purchase price,

number of computers and ADP costs by agency, computers by

Federal acquisition date and analysis of Federal ADP

work-years. The second section on calendar year data is

based on U.S. data from IDC and Federal data developed by

NBS for this report. This section presents the results of

detailed analysis on the type and size of computers in the

Federal Government. These results are then compared with

the same analysis for the U.S. computers to look at growth

rates and trends for the Federal computers. All of the

figures are year-end figures and should not be compared with

the data in the fiscal year section.

9
V. Fi seal Year Data

A. Federal Government Statistics

Figure 1 summarizes the number of computers in the

Federal Government from Fiscal Year 1965 to Fiscal Year

1977, including the transition quarter between fiscal year

1976 (July 1, 1975 - June 30, 1976) and fiscal year 1977

(October 1, 1976 - September 31, 1977). Figure 1 also shows

the classification of the computers into GSA gen.eral

management and special management categories. As mentioned

in the introduction, the general management category

includes computers in the general utility environment.

Figure 1 shows that the general management category has

remained relatively stable by number and currently

represents almost 40 percent of the Federal computers. Even

though the number of general management computers has grown

slightly over the last eight years, their percentage in the

Federal inventory has dropped from 64 percent in fiscal year

1970 to less than 40 percent in fiscal year 1977.

The largest number of Federal computers are in the

special management category. In addition to mobile and

control computers, a large number of these computers are

minicomputers. Figure 1 shows that the special management

category of computers has grown considerbly since fiscal

year 1970, doubling the number of computers in that category

from fiscal year 1970 to fiscal year 1977. In addition, the

percentage of Federal computers in the special management

category has grown from 35 percent in fiscal year 1970 to

over 60 percent in fiscal year 1977.

Figure 2 shows data on the number of computers in the

Federal Government, their growth rate from 1970 to 1977 and

the total dollar value of Federal computer systems and its

growth rate from 1970 to 1977. The dollar values for

computer systems have not been adjusted for inflation and

are not presented in constant dollars. The growth rates are

based on the increase in CPUs for one year compared to the

total CPUs of the year before. The average yearly growth

rate may also be called the average compound growth rate.

The dollar values are presented for Federal computer systems

instead of CPUs alone. We consider that when discussing the

dollar value it is not correct to value only the CPU. The

other components of the system need to be included. For

example, the additional memory units that a system may have

10
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12
make a difference in the dollar value of the system. We

feel that this higher dollar value of the computer systems

creates a more accurate dollar value of the computer

hardware in the Federal Government. These dollar values are

also more consistent with IDC's dollar values.

The dollar value of Federal computer systems for FY77

was $4.45 billion. The dollar values of the computers

systems from FY70 to FY77 has been increasing on an average

of $.235 billion per year for an average yearly growth rate

of less than 7 percent. For the same time period the number

of computers has been growing at a larger rate than the

growth rate of the dollar value. In the last fiscal year

there were over 1,000 computers added to the Federal

inventory. The average for the last eight fiscal years was

835 computers added per year. This means that there is an

average yearly growth rate of numbers of computers for the

eight fiscal years of over 11 percent. The fact that the

number of computers continue$ to grow at a greater growth

rate than the dollar value indicates that smaller, less

expensive computers are being added to the Federal

inventory. This indication is also shown in the section of

this report on computers by purchase price range.

B. Federal Government Statistics Compared with

U.S. Statistics

There is not a significant amount of data for fiscal

year figures which make comparisons of Federal and U.S.

figures possible. However, since the only dollar value

figures that are available for the Federal computers are

fiscal year dollar values, we have approximated the U.S.

figures that were available to reflect fiscal year figures.

Figure 3 presents these adjusted U.S. figures for both

numbers of computers and dollar values. On an average

33,000 computers have been added to the U.S. installed base

per fiscal year for an average yearly growth rate of over 24

percent. The growth rate by dollar value for these fiscal

year figures is over 11 percent with an average of $3.63

billion being added each fiscal year to the dollar value

of the installed base. Thus these figures show that for the

adjusted U.S. figures the number of computers continues to

grow at a larger rate than the dollar value.

13
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When these growth rate figures are compared (figures 2

and 3) it is apparent that the growth rates of U.S. and

Federal computer system dollar values are more closely

related than the growth rate by number. The average growth

rate of U.S. computers by dollar value is over 11 percent

while the Federal average growth rate by dollar value is 7 percent. The difference between these two growth rates is

less than the difference between the growth rates by number

which are 25 percent for the U.S. and 11 percent for the

Federal computers.

Figures 4 and 5 show the total Federal and U.S.

computers by number and dollar value for fiscal years 72 - 77 in graph form. These comparisons show what portion of

the U.S. installed base is held by the Federal Government.

Figure 4 shows that the Federal Government computers

represented about 8 percent of the U.S. installed base by

number in FY72 but represented less than 4 percent in FY77.

Figure 5 shows that the Federal Government represented

almost 13 percent of the dollar value of U.S. computers in

FY70 but less than 10 percent in FY77. Thus when the

Federal Government figures are compared with the U.S. the

Federal portion is much greater by dollar value than by

number.

C. Federal Computer Systems by Purchase Price

The only information that is available from GSA for a more detailed analysis of the dollar value of specific

Federal computer systems is a listing of the costs of

computer systems for general and special management

computers by five price categories: $50,000 or less;

$50,001-$200,000; $200 , 001 -$500 , 000 ; $500 , 001 -$1 , 500 , 000

and over $1,500,000. Data from these price listings was

compiled for six years and is presented in figures 6 and 7.

The dollar values of the price categories for the computer

systems have not been adjusted for inflation and are not

presented in constant dollars. The data was compiled as GSA

presented it for each fiscal year. For purposes of

smoothing the numbers the general management and special

management computer systems were added together. Figures 6

and 7 show that the largest numbers of computer systems are

in the $50, 000 or less category and the $ 50 , 001 -$200 , 00

category. It is apparent in figure 7 that the curves of

these two categories reflect a growing trend that should be

expected to continue in the future.

15
TOTAL COMPUTERS (in Thousands)

FY73 FY74 FY75 FY76

YEAR

Figure 4

16
TOTAL DOLLAE VALUE OF COMPUTER SYSTEMS

(in $Billions)

FY72 FYT3 FYlh FYT5 FYT6 FYTT

Year

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We analyzed the growth rate figures, shown in figure 8,

for these price categories to see if they agreed with the

plotted curves and to assess the actual growth rates. The

smallest price category, $50,000 or less has the largest

average growth rate of all the price categories with a growth rate of 17 percent. The categories with the next

highest growth rates were the $50 , 001 -$200 , 000 and the over

$1,500,000 category. These both have an average growth rate

of 7 percent. The computer systems in the $200,001-$500,000

category showed no growth rate when averaged over the six

fiscal years and the computer systems in the

$500,001-$1,500,000 category showed little average growth.

Thus the analysis by purchase price classification

showed essentially that the least expensive computer systems

represented the largest number of computer systems and the

largest growth rate of any of the price categories. The

most expensive computer systems represent the smallest

number of computer systems and the second highest growth

rate of any of the price categories. The computer systems

in the middle price categories seem to be showing little or

no growth.

D. Analysis of Federal Computers and ADP Costs

by Agency

Until further analysis on the function and uses of

Federal computers can be undertaken, the only data that is

available is that on the numbers of computers and ADP costs

by agency. Data was compiled for twelve fiscal years,

FY66-FY77, on the numbers of computers and the ADP costs by

agency.* The number of computers, both general management

and special management, is presented in figure 9. These

numbers were translated into percentages and are presented

in figure 10. The pie chart, figure 11, highlights the

changes in these percentages between FY67 and FY77.

*Throughout this section the abreviations for each agency

are GSA's Federal De pa rtmental / Ag ency abreviations.

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The agencies showing the largest growth rate in numbers

of computers between FY66 and FY77 are Energy Research and

Development Administration (ERDA) now part of Department of

Energy (DOE), Department of Transportation (DOT) and

Veterans Administration (VA). In FY77 all three of these

agencies have over ten times the number of computers they

had in FY66. By percent, ERDA had 8.51 pvircent of the

Federal computers in FY66 and 23.42 percent in FY77.

Transportation grew from 1.03 percent of the Federal

computers in FY66 and 3.12 percent in FY77. VA also grew

with .57 percent in FY66 and 1.18 percent in FY77. When the

figures are plotted in pie chart form, figure 11, these

increases can be easily noticed as are the decreases in the

portion of the Federal computers for DOD and NASA. NASA has

actually dropped from approximately 16 percent of the

Federal computers in FY66 to less than 13 percent in FY77.

DOD has dropped from almost 64 percent in FY66 to

approximately 45 percent in FY77. Figure 9 shows that both

Department of Defense (DOD) and National Aeronautics and

Space Administration (NASA) increased the number of

computers installed over these years but their percentages

of the total computers dropped.

Figure 12 shows the dollar value of the annual costs

for Federal ADP, general management category, by agency.

Since no cost data is required to be reported to GSA for any

computers ir\ the special management category, the annual

costs for Federal ADP special management category are

unavailable. The dollar values shown are given in actual

dollars, not constant dollars. Some of the ADP expenditures

included in these annual ADP costs include equipment

purchase, site preparation, equipment rental, personnel,

contract service, support products and other operating

costs. The largest increases for agencies by dollar value

are Treasury with an increase of $437M, from $42M in FY65 to

$479M in FY77 and Commerce with an increase of $80M, from

$19M in FY65 to $99M in FY77. The "Other Civil" category

has also increased significantly. When these costs are

examined by agency percentages, figure 13, Treasury has

increased from almost 4 percent of the total Federal ADP

costs (general management classification) in FY65 to over 13

percent in FY77. Commerce represented a small increase from

almost 2 percent of the total in FY65 to almost 3 percent in

FY77.

25
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The growth of both Treasury and Commerce are

graphically visible in the two pie charts, figure 14. These

two graphs of the annual costs for ADP, general management

category, for FY67 and FY77 not only show the increase in

Treasury and Commerce but also show the decrease in the

portion of the total represented by DOD and NASA. DOD has

decreased from over 60 percent of the total costs in FY67 to

less than 55 percent in FY77. NASA has decreased from almost

10 percent of the total in FY67 to less than 5 percent in

FY77. Thus, not only has the portion of the total Federal

computers represented by DOD and NASA (previous part of this

section) decreased but also their portion of the annual ADP

C 0 s ^ s •

E. Computers by Federal Acquisition Date

In the explanation of size classes, size class 1 was

identified as historical computers in the Federal

Government. Because of a Congressional request, and other

questions on the age of the computers in the Federal

Government, an analysis was made of the date of purchase of

the computers in the Federal inventory. Special computer

runs were obtained from GSA of computers installed by

Federal acquisition date. The Federal acquisition date,

according to the GSA ADP Management Information System

Reporting Procedures dated February 1, 1971, and updated

through June 13, 1975, is the date of machine acquisition in

the Federal Government. Acquisition is "a term which

describes the actual purchase of a machine or system from a source outside the Federal Government or describes the

initial lease of a machine or system by an agency of the

Federal Government from an external source." Agencies were

required to provide this acquisition date for machines

acquired after June 30, 1971. The date was entered for

machines acquired before this date on a voluntary basis.

Machines with no acquisition date are in the "not specified"

category

It should be noted that this date is very different

from an actual installation date or delivery date. Often

contracts are signed for purchasing a computer in one year

and the machine is not delivered and accepted until the next

year. Since the GSA inventory data is provided by each

agency for equipment actually installed, many computers

appearing in the inventory for the first time will have an

acquisition data of a year or two prior to the inventory

28

date. For example, the majority of computers which have an

acquisition date of FY77 will not appear until the FY78 or

FY79 inventory. This explains why the last acquisition date

for each of the years examined shows a decline in the number

of computers.

Figure 15 shows that as of year-end 1977 there were

still a number of older computers in the Federal inventory.

There were 1,514 computers that were ten years old or older,

not including the computers that were not specified. These

older computers, however, only represented 13 percent of the

total Federal computers. Even if all of the not specified

computers were added to the 1,514 older computers, the total

would still only represent less than 20 percent of the

Federal computers.

Some of the data does appear to be inconsistent for the

oldest acquisition dates. For example, it appears that

suddenly in 1975 two additional computers with acquisition

dates of 1956 were identified. This can only be explained

by differences in reporting procedures. Since each agency

provides an accounting of the computers installed each year,

we presume that in 1975 some agency did a more thorough job

of reporting and listed computers which had been overlooked

in previous years. It is obvious that these computers were

in the Federal inventory somewhere in 1972, 73, and 74 but

for some reason were simply not listed.

Figure 16 shows graphically the number of computers by

Federal acquisition date as of year-end 1972-1977. As was

explained earlier in this section, the decline at the end of

each year is due to the nature of the reporting procedures

and the definition of Federal acquisition date. The solid

line on each graph represents the most recent year or the

number of computers installed as of the date on the bottom

of each graph. The dotted lines indicate previous years.

By 12/31/76 and 12/31/77 the number of older computers,

computers with acquisition dates prior to 1968, were

declining. It is presumed that these older computers will

continue to decease in number as they are replaced by newer

systems.

30
31
COMPUTERS BY FEDERAL ACQUISITION DATE

) 19SS 1970

flCOUISlTION DATE INUENTORY flS OF 12/31/72

) 1965 1970

ftCQUISITION DATE INUENTORV flS OF 12/31/73

Figure 16 32
F. Analysis of Federal ADP Work-Years

The first part of this analysis of Federal ADP

work-years is based on data from GSA's charts titled "ADP

Work-Years by Activity - General Management Classification."

GSA defines number of ADP work years as "the number of

work-years of all civilian and military personnel whose

principal duties are directly identified with ADP

functions." Data was collected and analyzed for fiscal years

67-77 on the following ADP activities: systems analysis and

design, programming, key punch and key verify, ADPE

selection, in-house maintenance, services and support and

equipment operation. The definitions of these ADP activities

are given in the "Summary of Federal ADP Activities in the

United States Government," as of the end of Fiscal Year

1976, General Services Administration, page 35. Figure 17

shows the number of work-years for each activity and what

percent each activity represents of the total for FY67

through FY77. A line graph of each of the activities for

all eleven fiscal years and a line graph of the total ADP

work-years is shown in figure 18. Figure 19 is a bar graph

of these activities for FY67 and FY77. These two bar graphs

serve to highlight the major changes that have occured over

these eleven fiscal years.

Systems analysis and design is a job activity whose

number of work-years increased 117 percent from FY67 to

FY77. In F'Y67 there were 8027 work-years involved with this

activity and 17483 work-years in FY77. This activity

represented almost 8 percent of the total work-years in FY67

and over 14 percent in FY77. This growth in the portion of

the total is the largest of any job activity. As the line

graph figure 18 shows, systems analysis and design has been

consistently increasing over these eleven fiscal years and

should probably continue to do so in the future.

Programming is another job activity which has also been

increasing in number of work-years. There were 15492

work-years involved in programming in FY67 and 19813 in FY77

for an increase of 28 percent. Programming represented

almost 15 percent of the total work years in FY67 and over

16 percent in FY77. The increase in programming has been a steady gradual increase that is expected to continue.

33
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ADP Work-Years by Activity

197e 1972

F I sent YEHR

TOTSL HOP UORK-VEflRS ADPE SELECTION

SVSTErs SNOLVSIS 1 DESIGN IN-HOUSE nnlHTENBNCE

t 17898 -

SERVICES ( SUPPORT

KEY PUNCH / KEV UERIFV EOUIPHENT OPERATIONS

Figure 18
Equipment

Operation

Services and

Support

In-House

Maintenance

ADPE Selection

Key Punch and

Key Verify

Programming

Systems Analysis

and Design

oo

Equipment

Operation

Services and

Support

r In-House

L Maintenance

1^ ADPE Selection

Kev Punch and

Key Verify

Programming

Systems Analysis

and Design

T I I I I I I I I I I I r~i |—

<S) o o o o • ® c> o o

O o cs

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Key punch/key verify is a job activity which shows the

largest decrease in number of work-years when compared with

all of the other job activities. In FY67 there were 23536

work-years in the key punch/key verify activity and 16684 in

FY77. This represents a decrease of 29 percent. Key

punch/key verify represented about 22 percent of the total

work -years in FY67 and in FY77 only represented less then 14

percent. Since current computer technology utilizes key

punch/key verify tasks to a lesser degree than in the past,

this trend of decreasing key punch/key verify activities

should continue in the future.

The data available on the number of work-years in the

ADPE selection activity seems inconsistent. From FY67 to

FY76 ADPE selection showed an increase of 54 percent, 696

work-years to 1074 work-years. The FY77 figure, 4956

work-years, is over 300 percent higher than the FY76 figure

and make the increase since FY67 show as an increase of 612

percent. This abrupt increase in the number of work-years

is most clearly seen in the line graph, figure 18. In

relation to the total number of work-years ADPE selection

was less than 1 percent of the total from FY67 to FY76 and

over 4 percent in FY77. It will be interesting to see if

this number returns to the lower level of FY77 number of

work-years or if it remains at this higher FY77 number.

The number of work-years for the in-house maintenance

job activity has increased 223 percent from FY67 to FY77.

In FY67 there were 1043 work-years for this activity and

3365 in FY77. In relation to the total number of work-years

in-house maintenance increased from less then 1 percent in

FY67 to almost 3 percent in FY77. This activity will

probably continue to increase in the future but still remain

a relatively small segment of the total number of

work-yea rs

Overall, the figures show that the two job activities

with the largest number of work-years are services and

support and equipment operations. These two had the largest

number of work-years in FY67 representing over 50 percent of

the total and are still the largest in FY77 representing

almost 50 percent of the total. Services and support had

23475 work-years in FY67 and 30753 in FY77 for an increase

of 31 percent. This job activity represented over 22

percent in FY67 and over 25 percent in FY77. Equipment

operations had 33665 work-years in FY67 and 29244 for a decrease of 13 percent. In relation to the total, equipment

37
operations represented over 31 percent of the total

work-years in FY67 and less then 24 percent in FY77. These

two job activities, services and support and equipment

operations, will probably remain the largest two activities

for the next few years.

When all of the job activities are viewed together the

total number of work-years has only increased 15 percent

from the total FY67 number to the FY77 number. As figures

17 and 18 show the total number of work-years was higher in

FY70 than it was in FY77. For comparison, figure 20 shows

the costs for ADP personnel for this same time frame. The

costs for ADP personnel have increased by 142 percent from

FY67 to FY77. (The ADP costs have not been adjusted for

inflation. They are not given in constant dollars.) Also

for this same time period the number of general management

computers has increased 60 percent. Thus the ADP costs and

the number of computers for the general management category

have increased much more than the number of work-years have

i nc rea sed .

The next part of this section is based on data that has

recently been in GSA charts, "ADP Work-Years, by Agency - General Management Classification." Data was compiled for

eleven fiscal years to show each agency's portion of the

total number of work-years. Data is presented in figures 21

and 22 which show the number of work-years for each agency

and the percentage of the total each agency represented for

FY67 through FY77.

The agency with the largest number of ADP work-years in

FY77 is DOD with approximately 55 percent of the total

number. This is a decrease for DOD over these eleven fiscal

years since in FY67 they had almost 66 percent of the total

work-years. In FY77 Treasury was the agency having the next

largest portion of the total with approximately 24 percent.

This is an increase for Treasury over their FY67 figure of

15 percent of the total. Thus in FY77 two agencies, DOD and

Treasury, represented over 75 percent of the total number of

work-years. These agencies were also the two largest

agencies for percentage of annual Federal ADP Costs, General

Management Classification (see section "Analysis of Federal

Computers and ADP Costs by Agency") representing

approximately 68 percent of the total ADP costs.

38
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All of the remaining civilian agencies represent the

other 25 percent of the total work-years. None of these

agencies separately represent 5 percent of the total.

Figure 23 shows, in pie chart form, the percentages of total

ADP work-years, general management classification, for each

agency in FY67 and FY77. Since the total work-years have

not changed dramatically over these eleven fiscal years,

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of Treasury and the decrease of DOD are the most noticable

changes

42

VI. Calerrdar Year Data

A. Federal Government Computers

To facilitate comparisons of Federal and U.S.

computers and for a more detailed analysis than used in the

previous report ("Computers in the Federal Government: A

Compilation of Statistics", NBS SP-500-7, June 1977), a model - by-model census of Federal computers was developed.

As mentioned earlier in this report, the census was

developed by comparing IDC's model - by-model census with

computer printouts obtained from GSA of Federal computers

for year-end 1972-1977. Where the computer was not listed

in the IDC census we made a judgment of the appropriate

category and size. Some of the CPU model numbers were

deleted from the GSA listings for purposes of our analysis

because, in our judgment, they could not be classified as

computers. Some examples of these deleted items are add-on

memory units, programmable calculators and intelligent

terminals. Since both censuses were based on year-end data

no extrapolation of data was necessary for comparison.

Figures 24, 25 and 26 show the totals from the census.

The largest growth area in the Federal Government by number

of computers is the minicomputers category. The general

purpose computers are declining in number and percentage and

now represent less then 30 percent of the Federal computers,

from a high of 56 percent in 1972. By comparison, in 1972

minicomputers were 27 percent of total Federal computers and

are 55 percent in 1977. The special computers have remained

relatively constant by number over these years. They

represented 17 percent of the Federal computers in 1972,

1973, 1974 and 1975 and in 1977 represent 15 percent.

Figure 27 shows the average growth rate for Federal

computers by number for calendar year totals. These growth

rate figures are not affected by a transitional quarter and

therefore should be more accurate growth rate figures.

According to these year-end figures the Federal Government

is currently adding an average of 868 computers to the

inventory each year, for an average growth rate of over 10

percent. 1977 showed a very large increase, adding almost

1500 computers for a growth rate of over 15 percent. If the

average growth rate of 10.43 percent is projected forward in

time there would be an estimated 15,000 computers in the

44
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46

FEDERAL GROWTH RATE BY NUMBER

Y ear End

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

Number of CPUs

6,788

7,328

8,068

8,828

9,663

11 ,132

Average

Number Added

540

740

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1 ,469

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Growth

%

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10.10

9.42

9.46

15.20

10.43

Figure 27

48
Federal Government by 1980. This projected figure, however,

may be a conservative one.

B. United States Computers

The U.S. computer data by calendar year presented in

Figures 28, 29, 30 and 31 represent the majority of the U.S.

data used throughout this report. The figures are based on data presented in IDC's "EDP Industry Report," Annual Review

and Forecast issue, April 22, 1977, "EDP Industry Report,"

Annual Review and Forecast issue. May 19, 1978, and data

provided by IDC in answer to special requests.

Figures 28 and 29 show the totals of the IDC data

(restructured to eliminate the category of small business

computers) for year-end 1972-1977. These figures show that

the number of computers in the U.S. has tripled from 1972

to 1977 with minicomputers showing the largest growth by

number. The number of minicomputers in 1977 is more than

five times the number of minicomputers that were installed

in the U.S. in 1972. The number of general purpose

computers has not varied significantly over the last six

years. However, general purpose computers represented 48

percent of the U.S. installed base in 1972 and in 1977

represented only 18 percent by number. Minicomputers

represented 40 percent of the U.S. installed base in 1972

and now represent 66 percent. The portion of the U.S.

computers in the special computer category which include,

for example, some small business machines, communication

processors, data entry and process control computers, has

had minimal change over the six year period. The special

category represented 12 percent of the U.S. computers in

1972 and 16 percent in 1977. The number of special

computers has, however, quadrupled from 1972 to 1977.

Figure 29 also shows the number of computers in each of

the size classes in the general purpose category. An

analysis of each one of the size classes is presented in

later sections. Figure 30 is a line graph of the totals

from figure 29 to highlight which segments of the U.S.

installed base are increasing by number at the largest rate.

It is evident from this line graph that the increase in

minicomputers has greatly influenced the teal increase in

numbers of U.S. computers. The curve for minicomputers is

similar to the curve for total computer systems. This line

graph also shows that the general purpose category as a

49
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52
GROWTH RATE OF UNITED STATES COMPUTERS BY NUMBER

Year Number of Number Growth

End CPUs Added (%)

1972 104.000

1973 133,250

1974 167,100

1975 207,100

1976 255,540

1977 325,000

29,250 28.13

33,850 25.40

40,000 23.94

48,440 23.39

69,460 27.18

Average 44,200 25.61

Figure 31

53
whole does not show much change over the last few years

while special computers have increased slightly.

Figure 31 shows the U.S. growth rate by year for the

total number of computers in the U.S. For the last six

years there has been an average of 44,200 computers added

to the installed base each year for a growth rate of over 25

percent. If this growth rate was projected forward in time

to 1980 there would be an estimated 634,765 computers in the

U.S. In the "EDP Industry Report," Annual Review and

Forecast issue. May 19, 1978, IDC projects that by 1980

there will be 677,400 computers. Thus this average growth

rate of 25 percent seems a realistic, perhaps conservative,

growth rate for the next few years.

C. Federal Government Computers Compared With

United States Computers

When the total number of Federal computers is compared

with the total number of U.S. computers, the Federal

portion of the U.S. installed base appears quite small.

Figure 32 displays these totals. By number, the Federal

portion of the U.S. installed base was over 6 percent in

1972 and less than 4 percent in 1976 and 1977. That is, the

number of U.S. computers is increasing at a greater rate

than the number of Federal computers.

1. General Purpose Computers

The definitions for general purpose computers and the

size classes in this category were given in Section III. In

summary, size class 2 contains the smallest and generally

least expensive of the general purpose computers and size

class 7, the largest and generally most expensive of the

general purpose computers.

Figure 33 shows the numbers of general purpose

computers in the various size classes, for both the U.S.

and Federal Government. It is interesting to note that the

computer size classes seem to fall into two groups, 2, 3,

and 4 in one group and 5, 6, and 7 in the other for both the

U.S. and the Federal Government computers. The larger

Federal computers, i.e. size classes 5, 6, and 7, represent

a stable influence on the Federal inventory. These large

computers represented 21 percent, of the general purpose

computers in 1972 and 32 percent in 1977. Since these

54
55
U. S. GENERAL PURPOSE COHPUTERS BY SIZE

aeeee

1972 1973 1974 1975 197S 1977

YEAR

SIZE CLASSES a THRU 7

FEDERAL GENERAL PURPOSE CONPUTERS BV SIZE

1250 I —

9 '

I I I I

' I I I I

'

I—I I I

'

I I I I

'

I I I—r—

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

VEAR

SIZE CLASSES 2 THRU 7

Figure 33
computers are the most expensive, they exert a large

influence on the dollar value of Federal computers. The

same observations may be made for the U.S. size classes 5,

6 and 7. This group of computers represented 11 percent of

the U.S. general purpose segment in 1972 and 16 percent in

1977. Size classes 2, 3, and 4 for both the U.S. and the

Federal Government fluctuate more than the other three size

classes. As a group these are less expensive machines and

are usually the entry level machines for an installation.

However, by number these machines represent the largest part

of the general purpose computers. Size classes 2, 3, and 4

represented 84 percent of the U.S. general purpose

computers in 1977 and 68 percent of the Federal general

purpose computers.

The growth rates of total general purpose computers and

the growth rates of each of the size classes were

calculated. This data is presented in figure 34. The

average compound growth rate of all Federal general purpose

computers is a negative 3 percent while the average growth

rate for the U.S. Computers is a positive 3 percent. Thus

the general purpose segment as a whole is not significantly

changing. However, when each size class is analyzed

seperately, it becomes apparent that there are different

growth patterns for the various size classes in the general

purpose segment. The largest growth rate of any of the size

classes for both the Federal and U.S. computer systems is

for size class 7, the largest and most expensive computer

systems. for both the Federal and U.S. computers, the

larger size classes, 5, 6, and 7 show a much larger growth

rate than size classes 2, 3, and 4. The growth rate of each

size class is discussed in the following sections. Please

note that the figures in the folil-owing sections, figures

35-41 and figure 43, utilize a logarithmic scale for the

number of computers.

a. Size Class 1 Computers

Since size class 1 is used only for Federal computers,

there is no graph comparing Federal vs. U.S. size class 1 computers. In Figure 24 the raw data for size class 1 computers is presented. In 1972 there were 52 old computers

representing approximately 1 percent of the Federal

:omputers by number and in 1977 there were 6 computers

remaining, representing .005 percent of the Federal

computers. These historical machines are a miniscule part

of the Federal computers and should probably disappear from

57
GROWTH RATE OF GENERAL PURPOSE COMPUTERS

All General Purpose Computers

Federal

Average -103.4

U.S.

Year

CflU No. of

PPII ' c No.

MQQcQ urUW Lrl \ /o /

No. of

rpii ' c No.flrlrlorl urUW Crl

20 -1% <}U , C\J\J 8,100 16%

0 , O'+O -191 -5% •JO , JUU

3,150 5%

1974 3,654 -156 -4% 61,450

647 1%

1975 3,498 -213 -6% 62,097 -2,592 -4%

1976 3,285

23 V/o 59,505 -1,427 -2%

1977 3,308 58,078

Average 1575.6 3%

Year No. of No.

End CPU's Added

SIZE CLASS 1

Growth (%)

1972 52 -10 -19

1973 42 -14 -33

1974 28 -7 -25

1975 21 -8 -38

1976 13 -7 -54

1977 6

Average -9.2 -34

Figure 34a

58
SIZE CLASS 2

Federal

Year

tna

No. of

PDI 1' c LrU S No.

Mauea brow un \/o)

No. of

Ur U S No.

Mauea brow tn \ /o

Is/c. 1 , 1 OD -108 -10 3,516 15

1 097

-138 -13 1 ,526 6

13/'+ OO J -3 -.3 CO f QOU

68 .2

1975 886

-131 -15 28,704 -3,978 -14

1976 755 -35 -5 24,726 -3,894 -16

1 Q77 7?n

Average -83 -9

SIZE CLASS 3

Average -552.4

-

-2

1 Q7?

-16 -2 1 1 , OH 3

1 ,889 17

1 Q7'^ 1 3 / o QR7

-85 -9

11 O? , t.??4OH -514 -4

1 Q7A OIL. -61 .71 ? 7?n

494 4

1975 811 -91 -11 13,214

1,691 13

1976 720 -9 -1 14,905

1,674 11

1 Q77 71

/ 1 1 1 u , o / ? Average -52 -6

SIZE CLASS 4

Average 1 ,046.88 8

1 97? ooo

39 4

V , HOO

1 ,589 17

1 973 927

-18 -2

1 1 077

1 ,397 13

1 974 909

-98 -n

1

1 t9 111 , H / H -140 -1

1975 811

-7 -1 12,334

-695 -6

1976 804 -14 -2 11 ,639 -178 -2

1977 790 11,461

Average -19.6 -2 Average 394.6 4

Figure 34b
SIZE CLASS 5 Federal

1 Cu 1 No. of No. No of No

.

End CPU's Added Growth {%) CPU's Added Growth

(

1972 328

11

3,213

577 18

1973 363 _?1 " C \ -6 3,790

389 10

1974 342

D 2

4.179 -157 -4

1975 348

-11 -3 4,022

15 .4

1976 337

27 8 4,037 637 16

1977 364 4,674

Average 7.2 2

SIZE CLASS 6

Average 584.4 8

1972 308

15 2,209 414 19

1973 353 zin 11 2,523

81 3

1974 393 c

1 2,704253 9

1975 398

5 1 2,957 234 8

1976 403

37 9 3,191 163 5

1977 440 3,354

Average 26.4 1

SIZE CLASS 7

Average 229 9

1972 141

25

351

115 33

1973 176

H J 26 466

271 58

1974 221 0

c 1 737

129 18

1975 cci

30 14 866

141 16

1976 253

24 10 1 ,007

11 71/ 1 1 7

1977 211 1 ,178

Average 27.2 1 b

Figure 34c

Average 1 65.2 28

60
the inventory lists in the next couple of years.

b. Size Class 2 Computers

Figure 35 shows the number of size class 2 computers in

the Federal Government and the U.S. The Federal size class

2 computers have decreased from 1135 in 1972 to 720 in 1977

(see figure 24). The U.S. size class 2 computers increased

from 23,594 computers in 1972 to 28,704 in 1975 and then

decreased to 20,832 in 1977 (see figure 29).

Experts at IDC have a number of theories for the

fluctuations in the number of size 2 computers. They

believe that U.S. size 2 computers have a large leased base

and are therefore more easily upgraded to other systems,

size class 3 or higher. Since these size 2 computers are

often considered entry level machines, IDC theorizes that

once the small computer systems are implemented, businesses

realize that they can use computers for additional tasks and

obtain larger machines. Since computers have made inroads

into almost all segments of industry, most businesses are

now aware of the uses of computers and are obtaining larger

systems to begin with.

Since the Federal Government leases 9 percent of all

Federal computers and leases only 7 percent of the computers

costing $50,000 or less, the owned vs. leased theory for

the fluctuation in size class 2 computers does not seem

relevant. The rest of the theories may, however, be

appropriate. Federal size class 2 computers represented 17

percent of all Federal computers in 1972 and represented

only about 6 percent in 1977. They represented 30 percent

of the general purpose computers in 1972 and 22 percent in

1977. Either the computer users are upgrading these

systems, using minicomputers for the same application, or

the number of applications appropriate for this size

computer are diminishing. With the data now available there

is no way to accurately describe the reasons for these

fluctuations. It is evident, however, that size class 2

computers are decreasing in the Federal Government with a negative growth rate of almost 9 percent. Since U.S. size

class 2 computers represented 23 percent of the U.S.

installed base in 1972 and represented only 6 percent in

1977, their role in the total U.S. computers seems to be

decreasing also. These computers represented 47 percent of

the general purpose computers in 1972 and 36 percent in

1977. It is interesting to note that both the Federal and

61
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the U.S. size class 2 computers represent 6 percent (in

1977) of their respective total number of computers.

The portion of Federal size class 2 computers in the

U.S. size class 2 category has not changed significantly

over the last six years. In 1972 the Federal size class 2

computers represented almost 5 percent of the number of U.S.

size class 2 computers while in 1977 these computers were

approximately 3 percent of the U.S. computers. One reason

for this decrease is that the U.S. size class 2 computers

are only at an average rate of 2 percent while the Federal

computers have a negative growth rate of 9 percent. Thus

the portion of Federal size class 2 computers in the U.S.

size class 2 category has diminished.

In summary the Federal computers in size class 2 and

the U.S. computers in size class 2 are decreasing by

number. They still represent a fairly large segment of the

general purpose computers, 36 percent for the U.S. in 1977

and 22 percent of the Federal computers in 1977, but since

they are the least expensive of all of the general purpose

equipment, their influence on the dollar value of the

general purpose segment is not that extensive.

c. Size Class 3 Computers

Figure 36 shows the number of Federal and U.S. size

class 3 computers. The number of Federal computers in this

size class lias decreased from 972 in 1972 to 711 in 1977 for

an average negative growth rate of 6 percent. The portion

of total Federal computers represented by these size class 3

computers has decreased from 14 percent in 1972 to 6 percent

in 1977. For this same time period the U.S. size class 3

computers have increased from 11,345 to 16,579 for an

average growth rate of 8 percent. However, the portion of

the total U.S. computers represented by this size class has

dropped from 11 percent in 1972 to 5 percent in 1977. Thus

the number of U.S. size class 3 computers is growing but

growing at a slower rate than the rest of the U.S. computer

popul ation

When we analyze these computers compared with the rest

of the general purpose computers, we get a much different

view of the trends of this size class. In the Federal

Government size class 3 computers represented 25 percent of

the general purpose computer segment in 1972 and almost 22

percent in 1977. In the U.S. size class 3 computers

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64
increased from 23 percent of the general purpose computers

in 1972 and 29 percent in 1977. Thus the U.S. size class 3

computers are increasing both in numbers and in the percent

of the general purpose computers. Of all the computer size

classes in the general purpose segment of the U.S.

installed base, this size class shoves the largest percent

increase. In the Federal Government, size class 3 shows the

second largest decrease with size class 2 showing the

1 a rgest

The Federal portion of the U.S. size class 3 computers

has also decreased over these years. In 1972 the Federal

size class 3 computers represented almost 9 percent of the

U.S. size class 3 computers and only 4 percent in 1977.

Thus the Federal size class 3 computers seem to be showing

the growth trends opposite those of the U.S. At this time

we have no sound explanations for this occurrence.

d. Size Class 4 Computers

Figure 37 shows the number of size class 4 computers in

the U.S. and Federal Government. In the U.S. the number

of size class 4 computers has increased from 9,488 in 1972

to 11,461 in 1977, for an average compound growth rate of 4

percent. At the same time the Federal size class 4

computers have decreased from 888 to 790, for an average

negative growth rate of 2 percent. Both the number of U.S.

and Federal computers increased during these years and then

decreased to their 1977 level. Both curves seem to be

leveling off and appear to show a very gradual decline.

In 1972 the Federal size class 4 computers represented

13 percent of the total Federal computers and 23 percent of

the general purpose computers. In 1977 these computers

represented 4 percent of the total computers and 24 percent

of the general purpose computers. Thus the portion of

Federal size class 4 computers in the general purpose

segment has not really changed significantly in this six

year time frame. For the U.S. installed base, size class 4

computers represented 9 percent of the total computers and

19 percent of the general purpose segment. In 1977 these

computers represented 4 percent of the total and 20 percent

of the general purpose segment. Thus in the U.S. also the

portion of size class 4 computers in the general purpose

segment for this time frame has remained relatively

unchanged. The decrease in percent of the total Federal and

U.S. computers is mainly reflective of the decrease in the

65
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66
general purpose segment of the totals.

The Federal portion of the U.S. installed base of size

class 4 computers has not changed drastically over these

years. In 1972 the Federal size class 4 computers

represented 9 percent of the U.S. size class 4 computers

and 7 percent in 1977. Thus this size class seems to show

no major change in the Federal vs. U.S. computer trends.

In recent years the number of both U.S. and Federal size

class 4 computers has decreased slightly.

e. Size Class 5 Computers

Figure 38 shows the number of Federal and U.S. size

class 5 computers. As was shown in figure 33, size class 5 computers seem to fall into a pattern with the larger size

class 6 and 7 computers for both the Federal and U.S.

computers. In 1972 the Federal Government had 328 size

class 5 computers and had 364 in 1977 for an average

compound growth rate of 2 percent. This number represented

5 percent of the total computers and 9 percent of the

general purpose segment in 1972 and 3 percent of the total

and 11 percent of the general purpose segment in 1977, The

U.S. had 3,213 size class computers in 1972 and 4,674 in

1977 for an average growth rate of 8 percent. These

represented 3 percent of the total U.S. computers and 6

percent of the general purpose segment in 1972 and

approximately 1 percent of the total and 8 percent of the

general purpose segment in 1977. Both the Federal and the.

U.S. size class 5 computers decreased by 2 percent of the

total computers between 1972 and 1977 and increased by 2

percent for the general purpose segment during the same time

period. Thus, even though the graph of the number of

Federal size class 5 computers appears to be linear, the

Federal and the U.S. size class 5 computers have increased

by the same amount, i.e., 2 percent of each general purpose

segment

The Federal portion of the U.S. size class 5 installed

base has decreased from 10 percent in 1972 to 8 percent in

1977. This means that on the whole the U.S. size class 5 computers is growing a little faster than the Federal size

class 5 computers but not really significantly. Because

both the Federal and the U.S. size class 5 computers are

showing only a slight increase in number of computers this

size class is considered relatively stable. With the data

available we are unable to predict any significant changes

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68
in this size class.

f. Size Class 6 Computers

Figure 39 shows the size class 6 Federal and U.S.

computers. Even though these large-scale computers are

small in numbers they represent a large dollar value, since

the average monthly rental of this size class is between

$45,000-$95,000 according to IDC. Both the Federal and U.S.

numbers of computers in this size class are increasing. The

Federal computers have grown from 308 in 1972 to 440 in

1977, for an average compound growth rate of 7 percent.

This represents an increase of 5 percent of the general

purpose segment. The Federal size class 6 computers

represented 8 percent of the general purpose segment in 1972

and 13 percent in 1977. At the same time this number of

computers represented 4 percent of the total Federal

computers in both 1972 and 1977. Since all of the smaller

size classes had decreased in their percent of the total

computer population, the fact that this size class remained

the same is significant. The smaller size classes seemed to

reflect the overall decrease in the percent of general

purpose computers compared with the total.

The U.S. size class 6 computers have increased from

2,209 computers in 1972 to 3,354 in 1977 for an average

growth rate of 9 percent. This represents a 2 percent

increase of the general purpose segment. In 1972 the U.S.

size class 6 computers were 4 percent of the total general

purpose segment and were 6 percent in 1977. At the same

time they were 2 percent of the total U.S. computers in

1972 and 1 percent in 1977. Thus these computers do not

show the same signs of growth in the general purpose segment

as Federal computers show.

There is one other interesting statistic on the size

class 6 computers. In 1972 the Federal size class 6

computers represented 14 percent of the U.S. size class 6

installed computers and in 1977 represented 13 percent of

the U.S. Of all of the size classes this size class showed

the smallest decrease in the Federal portion of the U.S.

installed base. Thus this is the only Federal size class

whose overall growth is almost keeping pace with the U.S.

g rowth

69
00

70
g. Size Class 7 Computers

Figure 40 shows the size class 7 computers for the

Federal Government and the U.S. This size class includes

the largest of the general purpose computers, machines which

cost as much as $5M dollars. This is also the size class

with the smallest number of computers. In 1972 the Federal

Government had 141 size class 7 computers and had 277 in

1977, for an average compound growth rate of 15 percent.

These numbers represent 4 percent of the Federal general

purpose computers in 1972 and 8 percent in 1977. Compared

with the total number of Federal computers, this size class

represented 2 percent in 1972 and a little over 2 percent in

1977 .

The U.S. had 351 size class 7 computers in 1972 and

1,178 in 1977 for an average compound growth rate of 28

percent. These numbers represent 1 percent of the general

purpose computers in 1972 and 2 percent in 1977. When

compared with the total U.S. computers, these size class 7 computers represent less than 1 percent of the total in both

1972 and 1977. The 2 percent of the U.S. general purpose

segment that is the number of size class 7 computers

represented over 19 percent of this segment by dollar value,

according to IDC. This equalled a dollar value of over $8B

with an average system value of almost $7M. If this average

system value was applied to the Federal size class 7 computers, the approximate dollar value would be almost $2B.

Thus the small number of these computers represents a large

dollar value.

For these size class 7 computers the Federal Government

represents a large portion of the U.S. installed base. In

1972 the Federal size class 7 computers represented over 40

percent of the U.S. size class 7 computers, and in 1977

represented almost 24 percent. The Federal Government

represents the largest portion of the U.S. installed base

for this size class when compared with the Federal portion

of all of the other size classes. It is significant that it

is the largest size class of computers that has the largest

Federal portion of the U.S. installed base. It is also

important to note that, as was shown in figure 34, these

size class 7 computers are showing the largest growth rates

of any of the size classes for both the Federal and U.S.

computers. Thus, this size class should continue to grow in

importance in the future.

71
72
2. Special Computers

Figure 41 shows the special computers that are in the

Federal Government and the U.S. Remember that these

computers in the Federal Government include military systems

or computers for special Government use, plus all of the

computers which are neither general purpose nor

minicomputers. In the U.S. these computers are also the

computers that are not either minicomputer or general

purpose, including small business machines, communication

processors, data entry and process control computers. In

1972 the Federal Government represented 9 percent or 1,159

computers of the U.S. 12,430 special computers. In 1977

the Federal Government represented 3 percent, 1,728

computers, of the U.S. 51,122 special computers. Thus even

though the Federal special computers increased they did not

even double while the number of U.S. special computers more

than quad rupl ed

As was mentioned in Section VI. A., the Federal

special computers have remained relatively constant over

these years when compared with the total Federal computers.

The special computers represented 17 percent of the Federal

computers in 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, and in 1977 represented

15 percent. At the same time the special U.S. computers

represented 12 percent of the U.S. computers in 1972 and 16

percent in 1977. Thus the U.S. special computers when

compared with the total U.S. computers are increasing,

while the Federal special computers when compared with the

total Federal computers are decreasing. This difference can

be further explained by analyzing the growth rate for both

Federal and U.S. special computers. Figure 42 shows the

average compound growth rates for these computers. It is

obvious from this figure that the U.S. average growth rate

of 37 percent is far greater than the Federal growth rate of

8 percent. This explains why the portion of Federal special

computers in the U.S. installed base is diminishing. One

of the reasons for this may be the increase of small

business machines in the U.S. special category. When the

Federal computers were searched model by model , there were

very few small business machines listed. Thus, the category

of special computers in the Federal Government will probably

remain stable while the U.S. special computers will contine

to increase.

73
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75
3. Minicomputers

As has been shown in Figures 24,25, and 26 for the

Federal Government and Figures 28, 29, and 30 for the U.S.,

minicomputers now represent the largest segment of both of

the installed bases. In 1977 minicomputers represented 55

percent of the Federal computers and 66 percent of the U.S.

It was also obvious in Figures 26 and 30 that the growth

curve for minicomputers in both the Federal Government and

the U.S. was greater than that for either the general

purpose computer segment or the special computers. Figure

43 shows the curve of the U.S. and Federal minicomputers.

The number of both Federal and U.S. minicomputers are

increasing but this figure shows that the U.S. numbers

appear to be increasing much more dramatically. In 1972 the

Federal portion of U.S. minicomputers was a little over 4

percent. In 1977 the Federal portion equalled less than 3

percent of the U.S. installed minicomputers. This,

however, is not that great a change. Figure 44 shows that

the average compound growth rate for minicomputers in the

U.S. is 39 percent and 27 percent for the Federal

Government. The 27 percent is the largest growth rate of

any segment of the Federal computers. The growth rate of 39

percent is the largest growth rate of any of the segments of

the U.S. computer systems. Thus when both the U.S. and

the Federal minicomputers are analyzed by growth rate based

on number of computers, minicomputers by far show the

largest growth. The U.S. minicomputers are growing at a faster rate than the Federal computers, but in recent years

the difference in the growth rates has grown smaller. The

Federal minicomputers will probably follow the average

growth rate of 27 percent and approach 10,000 computers by

the year-end 1979. The U.S. minicomputers will probably

not follow the average growth rate of 39 percent but will

approach a growth of closer to 34 percent or approximately

387,000 computers by year end 1979. This means that the

portion of Federal minicomputers in the U.S. installed base

will still be between 2.5 percent and 3 percent.

D. Analysis of the Dollar Value of U.S. General

Purpose Computers by SIC Code

There is no direct method to compare the uses of

computers in the Federal Government to the uses of the U.S.

computer population. However, it is interesting to see what

trends or growth areas are appearing in the uses of the U.S.

76
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o o O o o CO o o o o

o cn 1—1 ON .—1 <r CO CO

CM CO CO in

O o O o o CD o o o o CO 00 00

in OvJ CN in

<t 00 CM .—1

i-H .—1 CN

CNJ CO <r in o\ ON

78
computers. Since there is a SIC code (Standard Industrial

Classification) for Federal Government and State and Local

Governments, data is available to relate these two SIC codes

to the rest of the codes. International Data Corporation

(IDC) provided data for the U.S. installed dollar value of

general purpose computers by SIC code for 1973-1977. This

data came from a number of IDC sources including several

special reports that are provided through their Corporate

Planning Service.

The compilation of this five years of data is presentedin figure 45. The dollar value of computers in the SIC code

for the Federal Government is shown to have decreased from

10.8 percent of the total in 1973 to 6.7 percent in 1977.

These numbers should not be compared with the figures in

earlier sections since the IDC analysis of Federal data is

different from ours. IDC in the past has looked at the GSA

general management category of computers and considered

about 70 percent of these to be general purpose. Thus the

IDC figures for the Federal Government are generally lower

than those in the earlier sections of this report.

The data for 1973 and 1977 from figure 45 is presented

in graphic form in figure 46. The 1973 figures are

presented as dotted lines and the 1977 data as solid lines.

Some bars appear only as solid lines because the 1973 and

1977 figure are the same, that is, that no change occurred.

According to figure 45 and also the graphic representation

of the data in figure 46 the SIC codes showing the largest

increase from 1973 to 1977 are business and miscellaneous

services with an increase of 2.8 percent. State and Local

Government with an increase of .9 percent, insurance with an

increase of .9 percent, and wholesale trade with an increase

of .8 percent. The business and miscellaneous services SIC

code includes the following categories: advertising,

consumer credit reporting agencies, mailing, reproduction,

commercial art and photography services, accounting,

auditing and bookkeeping services, noncommercial

educational, scientific and research organizations,

engineering services, and computer and data processing

services. Although data is not available, the large

increase in the dollar value of this SIC code may be due to

the increase in computers in computer and data processing

services, accounting services, and the consumer credit

reporting services. All of these services are now utilizing

computers to a large extent.

79
<Tl to UD CM 0~l CO

I— I— CXI C\J .

to ro oo un ro <NJ CM

ro ro ro ^ CO CO CM

00 o -iS- CO cTi oo

p-~ CO to I— in I— to

00 CM

1— CM ro I—

00 un

OO CO

OO CO I— o ^ OO CO CM

to CM 1^

to ro

00 —

1— to

r— CM CM n

'd- cri to r— ro ro

ro

00

CM ro CT> o

ro CM CM

to to

to ro

"d- ro 1— to I— 00

CO o o~i cri CM CO r— <^

ro O

CO CO o

CO

in CTi 1^ If) ro

cri LO

to

ro CM I— t--.

ID

to

ID

1-^ a~<

COLD

TRY CO 1

o tn to CM CM ID O 1

O 1

ro 00 ro 00 to , CM

to

to , o CO to

ID cn CM ro «=!- ro CM CM ro CM to to o LD Q

s:

t—

cn C71 >- M- t|- ca s: lE

to LU cn +-> (U 4-> M- to o

_i 0) s: (U s- to

=3: cri E CU > CU E > o CD D- s- CJ en 4- cu s-

<4- +-> cn o CU 3 s_ oo > +J cu o cn to re O" CD re >

_J :3 4- CD s: s: LU 4- CJ CU (U o

_l E S- ji: o to E C!3 o +j jn to o to to re I/) to c

(/) i/j 3 re re re o CU o c re CU s-

+-> Q. cn S- re u o Ci3 o +-> o cu re LU c o o o M- 3 +-> J3 +j > CJ to o S- C_) oS "O CU S- re re re -(-> oa re re > o o

«=C l-> s: +-> re -t-> S- +-> re <U CU c CU s- CD _i

03 i-> <u oa o CD o o tj S- 3 S- u u tJ to IE o CU a. Q. S- C >^ cu o Q o re cn c to to oa Q Q. tJ s_ Q. Q. S- to re CU oa +-> re LU S- cu +-> re LU -i-j to ^/) 3 +-> CU S- c re s- S- CU _l o XI o i CU E 1 o C CU E o re ^ 3 cu CJ CU cu +-> _I to 3 C o CU CU re re E CU o M c 1/5 to o 3 o re =1 0) i. o S- +-> S- o s_ +-> S- o CU re c 4-> 3 CU o CU +-> 1— Q o U- Q. o o LU 1— o h- o LU q; cn 1—

O Q3 LU o Ll_ to

I/O 2r

1—

oo to

CTl

1 ro

ro 00 00

ro to CTl ro 1 1 Ln CD CM to

CM 1 C_3 CM O CTl CM CTl CM ro

to ro ID ID to CO CTl (—

(

1 1 0k 1 1 CO o r-^ CO ro ID to CTl o 00 CTl O CM o ro CO o CM O CM oo O CM CM CM CM ro ro ro un LO to to to 00 CO cyi cn

to

CU

s-3

80
Of

IID

UJ

13

<ro

Q

orLJ

i-ZD

CL

e:o

o

LlI CO

o

OL

J

<roc

tij z

LiJ O

n

:I

ri

[T

q:

+-> 4J Q Q

CO II

t

1—I—

1—

T—I—I—

State & Local Govt

Federal Government

0th. Serv.

Education

Med. & Health Serv

Bus. & Misc. Serv.

0th. Financial

Insurance

Banking

Retail

Wholesale

Electric & Gas

Communications

Carriers

0th. Durable Mfg.

Trans, Equip. Mfg.

Elect. Mach. Mfg.

Non-Elect. Mach. Mfg.

Prim. Metals Mfg.

0th. Nondur. Mfg.

Chemical Mfg.

Print. & Publish

Food Prod. Mfg.

Mining & Const.

Crude Petrol. Mfg.

<S>

CL txj q: oLJ z I- ou. i-oi-<rJ

81
The largest decreases shown in figures 45 and 46 are

the SIC codes for the Federal Government, with a decrease of

4.1 percent, electrical machines manufacturing with a decrease of .8 percent, and transportation equipment

manufactures with a decrease of .7 percent. These decreases

do not immply that the total dollar value of the Federal

Government or the other codes has declined but simply that

the rest of the general purpose computer dollar values have

increased more than these codes. Thus this data simply

shows that the dollar value of Federal general purpose

computers is not increasing as much as the dollar values in

other industrial sectors.

82
REFERENCES

1. General Services Administration, Inventory of Automatic

Data Processing Equi pment i n the United St ates

Government

,

Washington, D.C., Automated Data and

Telecommunications Service, (published annually) for

Fiscal Year 1968-1977. This publication "contains

inventory data on digital computers installed

throughout the United States Government. Excluded

from this inventory are analog computers and

digital computers which are built or modified to

special Government design and integral to a weapons

or space system." (From foreword, October 1975).

2. General Services Administration, Suminary of Federal ADP

Ac t i V i t i es i n the Un i t ed States Government

,

Wa shi ngt on , D.C., Automated Data and Te 1 ecommun i cat i on s Services,

(published annually) for fiscal years 1974 - 1977.

This publication "contains cost, manpower and

utilization data associated with computers in the

General Management Classification." (From foreword,

October 1975).

3. Gray, Martha M., Computers i n the Federal Government:

A Compi 1 at i on of St at i st i c s , Washington, D.C.,

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology,

Information Technology Division, June 1 977 ( MBS-SP-500-7 )

4. International Data Corporation EDP I ndustry Re port , 13:20 and 21 (May 19, 1978), 12:19 and 20 (April 22,

1977), 11:18 and 19, (April 30, 1976) and 9:13 (April

19, 1974), (Annual Review and Forecast issues).

83
I KBS.114A (REV. 9-78)

U.S. DEPT. OF COMM. BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA

SHEET

1. PUBLICATION OR REPORT NO. NBS SP 500-46

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE COMPUTER SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY:

Computers in the Federal Government;

A Compilation of Statistics —1978

I. R^ciptent's Accession Nq<

5. Publicaiion Daie April 1979

7. AUTHOR(S)

Martha Mulford Gray

8. Performing Organ. Report No.

9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

WASHINGTON, DC 20234

10, Project/Task/Wort( Unit No.

11. Contract/Grant No.

12. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND COMPLETE ADDRESS fSfreef, City, State. ZIP) 13. Type of Report & Period Covered

i4. ^r<sofing Agency Code

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

Library pf Congress Catalog Card Number: 79-600023

I I Document describes a computer program; SF-185, FIPS Software Summary, is attached.

16. ABSTRACT (A 200'word or less {actual summary of most significant information. If document includes a significant bibliography or

literature survey, mention it here,)

This report presents data on the status of computer technology in the Federal

Government. It is an extension and update of "Computers in the Federal Government:

A Compilation of Statistics" (NBS SP 500-7), June 1977. The report contains a combination of existing statistics based on these sources. Data is included on numbers of computers installed in the Federal Government, dollar value of computers

installed, numbers of computers installed by agency. Federal ADP costs by agency,

Federal computers by acquisition date, and Federal ADP work-years. A detailed

analysis is presented for Federal computers classifying the computers into three

major categories, general purpose computers, special computers and minicomputers.

Federal computers are compared with U.S. computers in the same categories.

17. KEY WORDS (six to twelve entries; alphabetical order; capitalize only the first tetter of the first key word unless a proper name;

separated by semicolons) Federal Government computers; statistics; ADP costs; Federal minicomputers; Federal

ADP statistics; Federal acquisition dates; Federal ADP work-years.

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