January 28, 2016

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 1 

Taiwan Opposition Party Wins Presidency and Legislative 

Majority in Historic Elections 

Sean O’Connor, Research Fellow, Economics and Trade

Ethan Meick, Policy Analyst, Security and Foreign Affairs

Election Results

On January 16, 2016, Taiwan held presidential and parliamentary elections to select its 14th president and vice 

president and to fill all 113 seats of the 9th Legislative Yuan (LY), Taiwan’s parliamentary body. The Democratic 

Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate Chen Chien-jen won the election

with 56.1 percent of the vote, while the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, or KMT) presidential candidate 

Eric Chu finished with just 31.1 percent (see Table 1). This marks the second time in Taiwan’s history that a 

candidate from the DPP, Taiwan’s traditionally pro-independence party, will hold the presidency. The DPP also 

won an outright majority of seats in the LY for the first time, taking 68 seats compared to 35 for the KMT and 10 

for other parties.1

Table 1: January 2016 Taiwan Presidential Election Results

Party

Candidate

President Vice President Votes Percentage

Democratic Progressive Party Tsai Ing-wen Chen Chien-jen 6,894,744 56.1%

Kuomintang Eric Chu Jennifer Wang 3,813,365 31.1%

People First Party James Soong Hsu Hsin-ying 1,576,861 12.8%

Total: 12,284,970 100%

Source: Taiwan’s Central Election Commission, Presidential and Vice Presidential Election, January 16, 2016. 

http://vote2016.cec.gov.tw/en/IDX/indexP1.html. 

Dr. Tsai won in 18 of Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities (see Appendix, “Taiwan 2016 Presidential Election Results 

by Voting District”). Urban areas in particular supported Dr. Tsai: In New Taipei City and Kaohsiung City, 

Taiwan’s most populous districts, Dr. Tsai won 52 percent and 68 percent of the vote, respectively.2 Meanwhile, of 

the four voting districts that supported Mr. Chu, Taitung County and Hualien County make up only 0.9 percent and 

1.3 percent of Taiwan’s total population, respectively, while Lienchang County and Kinmen County are small 

outlying islands in close proximity to Mainland China.3

The transition to a DPP-led LY also marks a significant turning point for Taiwan politics. Nationwide, DPP 

candidates received 44 percent of the vote in LY elections, compared to 27 percent for the KMT.4 The decisive 

victory grants the DPP well over the 57 seats needed for a majority in the LY, while the KMT loses the 64-seat 

majority it secured after the 2012 general election.

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U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2 

In response to the election results, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office* released a statement reiterating that “[China] will 

continue to adhere to the ‘1992 Consensus’† and resolutely oppose any form of ‘Taiwan independence’ splittist 

activities. On the major principles of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, our determination 

is as strong as a rock.”6 A Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said, “There is only one China in the 

world. Both the [M]ainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no 

division. This basic fact and consensus of the international community will not be changed by the result of the 

election in Taiwan.”7

DPP’s Focus on Economic Issues Key to Victory

The 2016 election brought about a shift in emphasis from traditional sovereignty concerns to economic ones.

8

Taiwan’s electorate, which has grown largely dissatisfied with the state of the domestic economy and is increasingly 

worried about Taiwan’s growing economic dependence on China, voted in support of the DPP’s plans for boosting 

economic growth while maintaining the political “status quo”‡ with China.9 During the KMT administration under 

President Ma Ying-jeou (2008–2016), Taiwan’s economic growth slowed significantly amid stagnant wages, 

unemployment in Taiwan’s largely high-skilled workforce, weak entrepreneurial innovation, and low inbound 

investment.10

The severity of these domestic economic problems, and the KMT’s inability to address them during the Ma 

Administration, may explain why Dr. Tsai won the election.§ During the campaign, KMT presidential candidate 

Chu prioritized Taiwan’s external economic relations, particularly with China, diverging from the sentiments of 

many voters who fear that Taiwan is growing overly dependent on China.11 Meanwhile, Dr. Tsai’s campaign 

focused on supporting Taiwan’s domestic economy, including increasing innovation and employment, expanding

social welfare services, and improving long-term senior care systems for Taiwan’s aging population.12 Setting aside 

the sensitive question of Taiwan’s sovereignty, Dr. Tsai was able to focus her campaign primarily on domestic 

economic issues, which helped her secure the presidency. 

Implications for Cross-Strait Relations and the United States 

With the DPP’s victories in the presidential and LY elections, the party can pursue its economic and cross-Strait 

goals. Given voters’ hesitancy over further economic integration with the Mainland, Taiwan’s new government will 

seek to review all concluded and pending agreements under the Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework 

Agreement (ECFA), ** which have been the source of significant dissent in Taiwan, culminating in the 2014 

Sunflower Movement.13The DPP has stated it will not seek to overturn existing agreements under ECFA, but “will 

attempt to improve their implementation,” and that future agreements will be contingent on the passage of a crossStrait supervisory bill in the LY to monitor all agreements between China and Taiwan.

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 * The Taiwan Affairs Office is an agency within China’s State Council that is responsible for overseeing China’s cross-Strait policies.

† The “one China” principle states that both Taiwan and China are a part of a single “China.” The “1992 Consensus” is a tacit 

understanding reached between the KMT-led government of Taiwan and Mainland China that interprets the “one China” principle such 

that each side maintains its own definition of “one China.” Richard C. Bush, Uncharted Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations, 

Brookings Institution Press, 2013, 120–122; Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada, “The 1992 Consensus: Foundation for 

Cross-Strait Peace and Stronger International Links,” September 7, 2011. http://www.roctaiwan.org/CA/ct.asp?xItem=219017&ctNode=150&mp=77&nowPage=4&pagesize=15; and Xinhua (English edition), “Backgrounder: 

1992 Consensus on ‘One-China’ Principle,” October 13, 2004. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-

10/13/content_382076.htm. ‡ The term “status quo” is undefined but may be interpreted to mean sustaining Taiwan’s current high degree of political and economic 

autonomy without taking concrete steps toward unification with or formal independence from China. William Sharp, Jr., “Taiwan: Tsai 

Ing-wen’s Real Challenge,” Diplomat (Tokyo), September 29, 2015. http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/taiwan-tsai-ing-wens-realchallenge/. § For more analysis on Taiwan’s economy and its impact on the 2016 elections, see Kevin Rosier, Sean O’Connor, and Rolando Cuevas, 

“Taiwan’s Economy amid Political Transition,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, January 6, 2015. 

http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Taiwan%27s%20Economy%20amid%20Political%20Transition.pdf. ** For more analysis of ECFA and the Sunflower Movement, see the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s 2015 

Annual Report to Congress, November 2015, 491–492 and 496–497.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 3 

The DPP’s traditionally pro-independence stance notwithstanding, Dr. Tsai’s comments on cross-Strait relations 

suggest she will pursue a pragmatic approach that, in a departure from the last DPP president Chen Shui-bian (2000–

2008), would not seek to explicitly promote pro-independence policies. In her victory rally following the election 

results, Dr. Tsai said, “Maintaining the ‘status quo’ is my commitment to the people of Taiwan and the international 

community. ... There won’t be provocation and there won’t be surprises.”15 Even so, it is unclear how Beijing will 

approach relations with the Tsai Administration when it takes office in May 2016. Chinese leaders’ anxieties about 

the DPP’s past embrace of pro-independence policies may drive a newly hardline approach to cross-Strait relations, 

particularly on government-level interactions.

16

In U.S.-Taiwan relations, the new DPP-led government will likely prioritize Taiwan’s participation in the U.S.-led

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) over the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)*

as part of an effort to expand its trade liberalization and diversify its export markets beyond the Mainland.

17 The 

DPP’s focus on the TPP and the party’s historical political ties to Taiwan’s agricultural sector suggest it might be 

more inclined toward and politically capable of making key concessions on market access for U.S. pork products 

as a means of finalizing negotiations toward a U.S.-Taiwan Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA), 

which it may see as setting the foundation for Taiwan’s future TPP candidacy.18 On security matters, U.S.-Taiwan 

relations can be expected to evolve as the DPP develops its defense policy, which will likely emphasize indigenous 

military research and development (including the development of a submarine program) and strengthening 

asymmetric capabilities.

19

 * RCEP is a prospective free trade agreement initiated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and includes China as a key member.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 4 

Appendix

Taiwan 2016 Presidential Election Results by Voting District

Note: Green indicates support for Dr. Tsai. Blue indicates support for Mr. Chu. Gray indicates support for the third party candidate, Mr. 

Soong. Darker colors indicate a higher margin of victory.

Source: South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), “Infographic: See the New Taiwan,” January 18, 2016. 

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1902280/infographic-see-newtaiwan?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed. 
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 5 

Endnotes

1 Taiwan’s Central Election Commission, Statistical Analysis of Electees, January 16, 2016.

http://vote2016.cec.gov.tw/en/FT/T000000000000000.html. 2 Taiwan’s Central Election Commission, Presidential and Vice Presidential Election, January 16, 2016.

http://vote2016.cec.gov.tw/en/P1/n000000000000000.html. 3 Taiwan’s National Statistics Bureau, 2010 Population and Housing Census. http://ebas1.ebas.gov.tw/phc2010/english/rehome.htm; 

Taiwan’s Central Election Commission, Presidential and Vice Presidential Election, January 16, 2016.

http://vote2016.cec.gov.tw/en/P1/n000000000000000.html. 4 Taiwan’s Central Election Commission, Nationwide At-Large Legislator & Overseas Compatriot Legislator Election, January 16, 2016.

http://vote2016.cec.gov.tw/en/T4/n000000000000000.html. 5 Economist, “The Formidable Challenge Facing Taiwan's First Female President,” January 17, 2016. 

http://www.economist.com/news/21688542-ruling-kuomintang-loses-control-parliament-first-time-1949-formidable. 6 Taiwan Affairs Office (China), “Taiwan Office of the CCP Central Committee and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council Issue a 

Statement on the Results of the Taiwan Area Election Results,” January 16, 2016. Staff translation. 

http://www.gwytb.gov.cn/wyly/201601/t20160116_11366668.htm. 7 China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei’s Regular Press Conference on January 18, 2016.”

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1332584.shtml. 8 Taiwan Brain Trust, “TBT Survey: Assessment of Taiwan Society, Economics, Cross-Strait Relationship, and 2016 Election,” September 

26, 2015. http://en.braintrust.tw/article_detail/2093. 9 Kevin Rosier, Sean O’Connor, and Rolando Cuevas, “Taiwan’s Economy amid Political Transition,” U.S.-China Economic and Security 

Review Commission, January 6, 2015. 

http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Taiwan%27s%20Economy%20amid%20Political%20Transition.pdf. 10 Sarah Mishkin and David Pilling, “Taiwan: Time to Change Gear,” Financial Times, April 9, 2013. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1faf59d8-9e04-11e2-9ccc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3u1goqdGr. 11 Taiwan Brain Trust, “TBT Survey: Assessment of Taiwan Society, Economics, Cross-Strait Relationship, and 2016 Election,” 

September 26, 2015. http://en.braintrust.tw/article_detail/2093. 12 Tsai Ing-wen, “Taiwan Faces the Future,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 3, 2015. http://csis.org/event/tsai-ingwen-2016. 13 Tsai Ing-wen, “Taiwan Faces the Future,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 3, 2015. http://csis.org/event/tsai-ingwen-2016. 14 Tsai Ing-wen, “Taiwan Faces the Future,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 3, 2015. http://csis.org/event/tsai-ingwen-2016; Taiwan Executive Yuan, Executive Yuan Approves Draft Bill on Cross-Strait Agreement Supervision, April 2, 2014. 

http://www.ey.gov.tw/en/News_Content2.aspx?n=1C6028CA080A27B3&s=38451DE4C3084458. 15 Democratic Progressive Party, “We Have Embarked on the First Mile toward Reform” (Tsai Ing-wen Address to DPP Campaign Victory 

Rally, Taipei, Taiwan, January 16, 2016). 16 Richard Bush, “Taiwan’s January 2016 Elections and their Implications for Relations with China and the United States,” Brookings 

Institution, December 2015, 15–19; Alan D. Romberg (Distinguished Fellow and Director of East Asia Program, the Stimson Center), 

interview with Commission staff, August 19, 2015. 17 Lu Hsin-hui and Romulo Huang, “DPP to Study Ways to Clear Path for TPP Participation: Tsai,” Focus Taiwan, July 20, 2015. 

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201507200024.aspx. 18 Sean Lin, “2016 Elections: Candidates Debate Pork, Trade, China,” Taipei Times, December 28, 2015. 

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/12/28/2003635858; Joe Thomas Karackattu, “Exciting Times for Taiwan,” 

Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, January 13, 2012. 

http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ExcitingtimesforTaiwan_jtkarackattu_130112. 19 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2015 Annual Report to Congress, November 2015, 513.