Figure 1.

Population of Bolivia by Age and Sex: 1998 and 2020

Thousands

80+

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

1998

2020

600 200 100 0

Male Female

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, IPC, International Database.

500 0 100 200 600 400 300 300 400 500

International Brief

By John M. Reed

IB/98-1

Issued March 1998

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

 The total fertility rate has declined by a third since 1970.

Nevertheless, Bolivia has one of

the highest total fertility rates

among all countries of Central

and South America.

 Contraceptive use increased

from 30 percent of women in

union in 1989 to 45 percent in

1994, but 60 percent of all users still rely on inefficient traditional methods.

 Indicators of health and mortality show steady improvements.

Even more progress could be

made by removing deficiencies

in Bolivian health and social

services infrastructures and by

bringing the system up to the

average standard achieved in

South and Central America.

Population and Geography

Bolivia is roughly the size of

France and Spain combined with

about 8 percent of their population

(7.8 million in 1998). It is divided

into three regions: the Altiplano, or

high plains in the west; the Valle,

or valleys, in the central region;

and the Llano, or plains, in the

east and north. Each region is distinctive with regard to climate,

settlement patterns, social organization, access to goods and services, and profile of morbidity and

mortality.

Despite being one of the most

sparsely populated countries on

the continent, Bolivia managed to

triple its population since 1950 and

is currently growing at an annual

rate of 2.0 percent. Although the

population growth rate is not expected to continue if anticipated

declines in fertility occur, Bolivia’s

population is likely to exceed 10

million by 2012 and be twice its

current size by 2050.

Bolivia has a young population

with over 40 percent under 15

years of age. At the same time,

the population is growing older,

largely as a result of falling fertility

(Figure 1). Consequently, between now and 2020 both the

working age population and

women in childbearing age will

grow faster and will become larger

proportions of the total population.

Mortality

Bolivia has steadily improved the

health and mortality conditions of

its people over the years

1950-1998. At the beginning of

the period, life expectancy at birth

was under 40 years. Twenty six

years later, people were living on

average nine years more; by

1998, another 12 years had been

added, bringing the total to 61.

The infant mortality rate was 180

per 1,000 births in 1950 and was

above 100 in 1976, but by 1998

had fallen to 64. Despite these

advances, Bolivia has one of the

worst levels of health and mortality

in South America, including the

lowest life expectancy at birth and

highest infant mortality. The 1994

Bolivia Demographic Health Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud, ENDSA94) results

show that many Bolivians are not

served by important health and social services (INE and MI, 1994).
2

According to the survey, in 1994,

only 37 percent of children 12-23

months old were fully vaccinated;

more than one half of all births

were not attended by a trained

medical professional; 3 out of 5

births were to women who had not

received any dose of tetanus toxoid injection; and almost 1 out of

every 2 births was to a woman

who had not received any prenatal

care.

According to the ENDSA94 survey,

health and mortality conditions are

far better in the Llano region than

in the Altiplano and Valle regions.

For example, the infant mortality

rate for the Llano region (53) is

nearly half the rate for the Altiplano

and the Valle (96 and 101). Similarly, infant and child mortality rates

are substantially lower in urban

areas than in rural areas (Figure 2).

Figure 2.

Infant and Under Five Mortality

Rates by Residence: 

1984-94

Source: INE and MI, 1994.

0 50 100 150 200

Altiplan

Valle

Llano

Under 1

Under 5

Deaths per 1,000 births

Urban

Rural

Fertility

Fertility estimates for Bolivia show

an appreciable decline from a total

fertility rate (TFR) of 6.5 births per

woman in 1970 to 4.1 births in

1998. Increased use of contraception, improvements in literacy, and

concentration of the population in

urban areas are probable explanations for the trend. However, 

Bolivia still has the fifth highest total fertility rate (4.1 children per

woman) among the countries of

Central and South America, following Guatemala (4.8), Nicaragua

(4.3), Paraguay (4.3) and Honduras (4.1).

Fertility varied markedly in 1992 by

rural and urban residence; while

the TFR in urban areas is 3.8,

women in rural areas on average

have 6.3 children. Fertility variations by region are minimal: Llano

(4.6), Altiplano (4.7), and Valle

(5.0) (INE and MI, 1994).

Contraceptive Prevalence

There is general awareness of

contraceptive methods in Bolivia,

and contraceptive use has risen

significantly. According to ENDSA94, 82 percent of all women of

reproductive age know or have

heard of at least one traditional or

modern method of family planning.

Between 1983 and 1989, the contraceptive prevalence rate increased by one-fourth, rising from

24 percent of women in union at

the beginning of the period to 30

percent 6 years later (Figure 3).

Between 1989 and 1994, the prevalence rate increased 15 percentage points, so that 45 percent of

women in union were using contraception in 1994 (Figure 3). It is

significant to note that 61 percent

of all users still resort to less 

reliable traditional methods—primarily “rhythm” (49 percent).

Figure 3.

Trends in Current Use of

Contraception Use Among

Women in Union by Method:

1983, 1989, and 1994

Source: INE and MI, 1994.

0 10 20 30 40 50

1983

1989

1994

Traditional

Modern

Percent

The Bolivian public is not as well

informed about modern contraceptive methods as its counterparts

elsewhere in Latin America. Nevertheless, in 1994, 77 percent of

women were familiar with a modern method compared with 67 percent in 1989 (INE and MI, 1994;

INE and IRD, 1990). Use of modern methods increased from 12

percent in 1989 to 18 percent in

1994. Among the modern methods, the IUD has the most adherents; nearly half of the modern

method users in 1994 employed

the IUD (Figure 4).

Figure 4.

Distribution of Contraceptive

Users by Method: 1994

Rythm 49%

IUD 18%

Pill 6%

Other traditional 12%

Sterilization

10%

Other modern

5%

Source: INE and MI, 1994.

In Bolivia, as in most developing

countries, contraceptive use varies

by area of residence and level of

education. Urban women in union

are almost twice as likely to practice contraception (55 percent) as

rural women in union (31 percent)

(Figure 5). Variations by education

are even larger. For the group of

women lacking formal education,

only 23 percent practice contraception; the figure rises to 47

percent for those with intermediate

schooling; and the rate is as high

as 66 percent for women who

have gone beyond a high school

diploma.

Among the regions, the Llano region has higher contraceptive use

(52 percent) than the Altiplano and

Valle regions (44 and 42 percent)

(Figure 5). In the Llano, the pro-
3

portion of women in union using

modern methods (31 percent) is

approximately twice the proportion

of women using in the Altiplano

(12 percent) and the Valle regions

(16 percent).

Figure 5.

Contraceptive Use Among

Women in Union by Region:

1994

Source: INE and MI, 1994.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Altiplan

Valle

Llano

Modern

Traditonal

Percent using contraceptives

Urban

Rural

Women in Bolivia express a desire

to control family size. According

to the ENDSA94, more than twothirds of women in union do not

wish to have any more children.

The survey also found that nearly

one-fourth of women in union have

an unmet need for family planning.

Greater access to such services

would reduce pregnancies (18.3

percent), or would increase the

spacing of births to at least 2 years

(5.9 percent). Significantly, unmet

need is greater among the lower

socio-economic groups, such as

women in rural areas and those

with less education (Figure 6).

Literacy

Bolivia has made substantial progress in improving literacy among

its people. From 1950 to 1992,

the overall literacy rate rose from

32 percent to 79 percent, and the

gender differential declined from

19 to 16 percentage points. In

1950, 42 percent of the males and

23 percent of females were literate. Twenty-six years later, 76

percent of males and 51 percent of

females had achieved this status.

By 1992, the rates were 88 percent and 72 percent, respectively.

Despite these gains, literacy differentials between urban and rural

areas remain large. For example,

96 percent of males in urban areas

were literate in 1992, compared to

76 percent of males in rural areas.

Women in urban areas had an 86

percent literacy rate, while those in

rural areas were way behind at 49

percent. To put this in perspective,

there are a number of African

countries whose differentials are

smaller.

Urbanization

Bolivia has become an increasingly urban nation. The population

was 34 percent urban (places with

2000 or more persons) in 1950,

and only 41 percent urban by

1976. Since then, the pace of urbanization has picked up modestly.

According to the 1992 census, the

country was approximately 58 percent urban. In 1950, just over a

million people lived in urban areas.

More than four times as many

people live in urban areas today.

By 2020, more than 75 percent of

all Bolivians (about 8.5 million

people) are expected to live in urban areas.

Figure 6.

Unmet Need for Family

Planning by Residence and

Education: 1994

Source: INE and MI, 1994.

0 10 20 30 40

No education

Basic

Intermediate

Higher

Spacing

LImiting

Percent

Total

Urban

Rural

Concluding Observations

Basic demographic forces shaping

Bolivia’s future have been 

discussed in this report. Population should continue to grow, albeit

more slowly, through at least the

year 2050. This projection results

from favorable mortality and fertility trends but is largely driven by a

persistent decline in the total fertility rate. The reasons for this decrease have also been identified;

educational attainment, urbanization, and adoption of contraceptives are increasing throughout the

country.

References:

Dirección General de Estadística Y

Censos. 1955. Censo Demográfico

1950. La Paz, Bolivia: Editorial Argote.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística.

1978. Censo Nacional de Población y

Vivienda 1976: Resultados Finales.

La Paz, Bolivia: INE.

______. 1993. Censo Nacional de

Población y Vivienda 1992: Resultados Finales. La Paz, Bolivia: INE.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística and

Institute for Resource Development/

Macro Systems, Inc. (INE & IRD).

1990. Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud 1989. La Paz, Bolivia/

Columbia, MD.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística and

Macro International (INE & MI). 1994.

Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y

Salud 1994. La Paz, Bolivia/Calverton, MD.

United Nations. 1997. World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revision

(unpublished electronic data files).

The International Programs Center

(IPC) collects, assesses, and analyzes

population and related statistics from

all countries. Based on these data,

IPC produces the demographic estimates and projections used in this series of reports. This report, written by

John M. Reed, was prepared with the

support of the U.S. Agency for International Development. More detailed information is available from the International Programs Center, Population

Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233-8860.
Table 1.

Population Indicators for Bolivia: 1992 to 2020

(Population in thousands. Figures may not add to totals due to

rounding)

Indicator 1992 1998 2000 2010 2020

POPULATION

Total country ............... 6,895 7,826 8,139 9,699 11,245

Urban ....................... 3,966 4,937 5,277 6,927 8,489

Rural ........................ 2,930 2,889 2,862 2,772 2,756

Male, total country

All ages ................... 3,406 3,860 4,013 4,775 5,535

0 to 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,451 1,559 1,586 1,659 1,670

6 to 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 644 702 719 765 776

13 to 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 533 551 626 653

15 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,454 1,706 1,796 2,279 2,750

15 to 49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,582 1,860 1,958 2,479 3,023

15 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,816 2,140 2,260 2,906 3,561

65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 161 167 210 304

75+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 58 63 81 106

Female, total country

All ages ................... 3,490 3,966 4,126 4,923 5,710

0 to 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,417 1,527 1,552 1,615 1,617

6 to 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 631 691 707 748 753

13 to 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 525 546 618 640

15 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,524 1,779 1,869 2,339 2,773

15 to 49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,656 1,942 2,044 2,565 3,072

15 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,910 2,245 2,371 3,045 3,704

65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 194 203 264 389

75+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 76 82 111 149

Married females

15 to 49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 978 1,188 1,252 1,606 1,988

15 to 19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 61 63 73 76

20 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 195 205 250 275

25 to 29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 232 249 325 380

30 to 34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 218 228 312 387

35 to 39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 193 200 260 344

40 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 166 176 216 300

45 to 49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 123 132 171 225

DEPENDENCY RATIO

Both sexes ................... 85.1 78.5 75.7 63.0 54.8

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (years)

Both sexes ................. 57.6 60.9 62.0 67.0 71.2

Male ........................ 54.8 58.0 59.0 63.9 68.1

Female ...................... 60.5 63.9 65.1 70.2 74.5

INFANT MORTALITY RATE (per 1,000 births)

Both sexes ................. 75.1 63.9 60.2 43.8 30.8

Male ........................ 81.2 69.3 65.5 48.1 34.1

Female ...................... 68.7 58.1 54.7 39.4 27.3

Under-Five Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births)

Both sexes ................. 149.7 120.9 111.6 73.9 47.2

Male ........................ 161.0 131.2 121.5 81.8 53.1

Female ...................... 137.9 110.0 101.2 65.6 41.0

MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO (per 100,000 births)

1984-1989 1989-1994

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 390

Urban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 274

Rural . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615 524

Note: Dependency ratio is the number of persons age 14 and below

and age 65 and above per 100 persons ages 15 to 64 years.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center,

International Data Base; and INE and MI, table 10.4.

Table 2.

Contraceptive Prevalence Among Women in Union Ages 15

to 49, by Method: Selected Years

Method

Percent current users

1983 1989 1994

Total ........................... 23.6 30.3 45.3

Modern methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 12.2 17.7

Pill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 1.9 2.8

IUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.8 8.1

Sterilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.4 4.6

Other modern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.1 2.2

Traditional methods ............. 13.7 18.0 27.6

Rhythm ........................ 12.7 16.1 22.0

Other Traditional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.9 5.6

Source: INE and MI, 1994, table 4.5.

Table 3.

Contraceptive Prevalence Among Women Currently in

Union 15 to 49 Years of Age, by Method: 1994

Age

Percent of current users

Total

Modern

method Pill

SterilizationOther

modern

TraditionalNot

currently

using

15 to 19 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 9.4 3.9 0.0 5.5 20.8 69.8

20 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 12.0 3.4 0.3 8.3 27.2 60.8

25 to 29 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 20.0 4.4 1.1 14.5 31.0 49.0

30 to 34 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 22.8 3.3 5.3 14.2 31.0 46.2

35 to 39 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 20.9 2.4 8.0 10.5 29.1 50.0

40 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 18.7 1.1 10.2 7.4 27.6 53.7

45 to 49 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 9.9 0.2 5.8 3.9 14.9 75.2

CHILDLESS WOMEN: 1994

Percent of women in union aged

45-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0

AVERAGE DURATION OF POSTPARTUM

INFECUNDABILITY: 1994

Number of months ............... 13.1

Source: INE and MI, 1994, tables 3.5, 4.4, and 5.11.

Table 4.

Fertility Rates

(Per 1,000 women)

Age 1992 1998 2000 2010 2020

15 to 19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 79 73 53 41

20 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 200 190 151 130

25 to 29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 206 198 170 155

30 to 34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 157 147 109 89

35 to 39 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 109 99 60 40

40 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 49 44 24 14

45 to 49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 12 11 6 3

Total fertility rate (per

woman) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 4.1 3.8 2.9 2.4

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center,

International Data Base.

4